@article {pmid40563919, year = {2025}, author = {Huang, Y and Yang, J and Zhao, G and Yang, Y}, title = {Potential Distribution and Cultivation Areas of Argentina anserina (Rosaceae) in the Upper Reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River Basin Under Climate Change: Applications of Ensemble and Productivity Dynamic Models.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {40563919}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {QHQXD-2023-28//Project of Grassland Multifunctionality Evaluation in Three-River-Source National Park/ ; RQD2022046//Southwest Minzu University Research Startup Funds/ ; }, abstract = {Argentina anserina (Rosaceae), a perennial herb, forms enlarged tuberous roots (commonly referred to as "ginseng fruit") exclusively in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, making it a unique medicinal and edible plant resource in this region. The upper reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River are one of its primary production areas in China. This study employs an ensemble model to simulate the potential distribution of A. anserina in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, ecological niche, and centroid migration patterns. Additionally, a cultivation productivity evaluation model integrating ecological suitability and nutritional components was developed to delineate potential cultivation areas. Results indicate that high-suitability habitats span 0.37 × 10[4] km[2] (7.39% of the total suitable area), exhibiting a patchy and fragmented distribution in Aba County, Rangtang County, Jiuzhi County, and Banma County. Core cultivation areas cover 3.78 × 10[4] km[2], distributed across Aba County, Rangtang County, Jiuzhi County, Seda County, Banma County, Hongyuan County, and Markam City. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable distribution area of A. anserina will gradually decline with rising temperatures, migrating to higher-latitude northern regions, accompanied by increased niche migration. By the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the centroid demonstrates the largest migration amplitude, with high-suitability habitats showing a "collapsing" polarization pattern and near-complete niche separation from the previous period, indicating significant changes. Collectively, these results provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable utilization of A. anserina in the upper Dadu River and Minjiang River basin.}, }
@article {pmid40563882, year = {2025}, author = {Zhou, W and Wang, M and Wang, L and Liu, Y and Tian, Z and Xie, L and Wang, Y}, title = {Epigenetics in Plant Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {40563882}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {ZC2025042，JYT2024026，BSJJ202430//Self-raised funds of Hebei Province，Project of Basic Scientific Research Business Funds for Higher Education Institutions in Hebei Province，Doctoral Start-up Project of Hebei North University/ ; }, abstract = {Since the last glacial maximum, the Earth has experienced drastic climate changes. However, with the advent of the Industrial Revolution, human activities have abruptly intensified, altering the planet's climate patterns. Climate models predict that over the next hundred years, the globe will experience even more drastic changes than those observed in the past 20,000 years. Understanding how plants adapt to environmental changes has thus become a critical research priority. Currently, evidence suggests that plants adapt to environmental changes primarily through two distinct pathways: one mediated by genetic variation and the other involving the direct or indirect participation of epigenetic modifications. Given the unprecedented rate of contemporary climate change, epigenetic mechanisms may exert a more immediate and flexible influence than genetic modifications. Epigenetics, including DNA methylation, histone modification, and non-coding RNA, plays an important role in the post-transcriptional regulation process and affects the growth and development of plants, as well as their responses to environmental changes. In this review, we synthesize current knowledge on the epigenetic mechanisms underlying plant responses to environmental changes and examine the dynamic interplay between epigenetic regulation and environmental stimuli, aiming to provide insights into enhancing the tolerance of plants to environmental stress factors.}, }
@article {pmid40563842, year = {2025}, author = {Choi, SK and Son, YB and Jeong, HW and Go, S and Park, SR}, title = {Spatio-Temporal Projections of the Distribution of the Canopy-Forming Algae Sargassum in the Western North Pacific Under Climate Change Scenarios Using the MAXENT Model.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {40563842}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {RS-2025-02304432//Korea Institute of Marine Science and Technology Promotion/ ; PEA0306//Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology/ ; }, abstract = {Canopy-forming algae play an important role in coastal ecosystems because these species are highly productive and provide habitats and shelter for numerous marine organisms. Sargassum is the main genus of canopy-forming algae in the western North Pacific, but despite the importance of their ecological role, studies on the changes in their distribution are still scarce. Based on the present distribution of four Sargassum species, this study predicted the geographic distribution of future habitats (2030s, 2060s, and 2090s) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The environmental variables predicted from the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) had different impacts depending on the species, with current velocity and water temperature showing high contributions in all four species. According to the projections, three Sargassum species (S. horneri, S. macrocarpum, and S. patens) are expected to maintain a higher habitat suitability index (HSI) and suitable habitat (MAXENT ≥ 0.4) through the 2090s under the SSP1-1.9 scenario. However, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the HSI of the species is projected to gradually decrease in the southern coastal waters of the Korean peninsula and increase in the East Sea (North Korea), with these results intensifying under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. On the other hand, S. piluliferum was found to increase its HSI and habitat under the highest emission scenarios. All Sargassum species are predicted to shift northward from 0.8° N to 3.8° N by the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Although many marine protected areas exist off the coasts of South Korea and Japan, suitable Sargassum habitats were found to be located within protected reserves between 47.1% and 61.2%, depending on the scenario. These findings on Sargassum provide distributional predictions for ecological conservation strategies and provide new evidence for the need for climate change efforts.}, }
@article {pmid40562564, year = {2025}, author = {Kassem, N and Boutros, P and Kwaro, D and Muma, J and Obor, D and Munga, S and Maggioni, MA and Bärnighausen, T and Winkler, VF and Barteit, S}, title = {Wearable device monitoring of HIV health in the face of climate change and weather exposures: protocol for a mixed-methods study.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {e092307}, doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2024-092307}, pmid = {40562564}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Humans ; *Wearable Electronic Devices ; *HIV Infections/epidemiology/physiopathology ; *Climate Change ; Kenya/epidemiology ; *Weather ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Research Design ; Heart Rate ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change and HIV are interconnected epidemics that increase vulnerability in people living with HIV (PLWH), particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite their public health significance, research on the synergistic effects of these epidemics on the health of PLWH is limited. The advancement of non-invasive wearable technology offers an opportunity to leverage objective health data for large-scale research, addressing this knowledge gap. This study will examine the impact of weather events on distinct health variables of PLWH within the Siaya Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in rural Kenya.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Over a period of 6&#x2009;months, we continuously monitored health parameters of a total of 200 participants including heart rate, activity and sleep, using consumer-grade wearable devices. We will correlate these health data with real-time weather parameters (ambient temperature, wet bulb globe temperature, precipitation level) from five weather stations within the HDSS area and compare between HIV-positive participants and an HIV-negative control group. Additionally, a convergent mixed-methods approach will explore participants' perceptions of the impact of weather events on their health and personal experiences. The study aims to inform future research on the complex relationship between HIV and weather events, which are projected to increase in frequency in this region due to climate change and provide valuable insights for policymakers to develop effective measures to protect this vulnerable population amid the growing climate crisis.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the Research Ethics Committees at Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi (approved on 23 October 2023; SERU 4826) and Heidelberg University Hospital, Germany (approved on 14 February 2023; S-824/2022). Written informed consent was obtained from all participants prior to enrolment, with data anonymised and handled according to Kenyan and German data protection regulations. Research findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and presented at scientific conferences.}, }
@article {pmid40561927, year = {2025}, author = {Fitzpatrick, L and Murphy, BA and Midgley, MG and Desai, AR and Dietze, MC and Dreisilker, K and Rollinson, CR}, title = {Harvest legacies and climate change interact to shape forest structure and biomass through time.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {390}, number = {}, pages = {126272}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126272}, pmid = {40561927}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Forest structural change driven by climate trends has been observed worldwide and is expected to increase in the future. Management of forest structure has been an important tool for mitigating the impacts of climate change but forest structure may shift independently of management goals as it interacts with climate change. Here, we investigated the long-term impacts of harvest-based management strategies on structure and resistance to climate-induced biomass loss using a process-based ecosystem model for a midwestern USA hardwood forest. We identified aboveground biomass loss events and compared the cumulative number of these events following a five-year period of active management under four management strategies and two climate change scenarios. Management legacy had the clearest impact on climate-driven biomass loss over the mid-term (∼25 years) with the shelterwood scenario experiencing no loss events during this period. However, by the end of the century legacy effects faded and climate change severity became the driver of differences as greater warming scenarios experienced twice the loss events, and end-of-century loss events were 3-10 times more frequent than mid-century events. We found that while structure was distinct among harvest scenarios through the mid-century, differences were negligible by the end-of-century; identical to when management correlated with loss event frequency. We found that loss events were preceded by a drop in precipitation two years prior, while no specific forest structure preceded a loss event. However, the structures preceding a biomass loss event were distinct across different legacies, implying additional influences of past management.}, }
@article {pmid40561891, year = {2025}, author = {Kırca, AS and Daglı, E}, title = {Evaluation of the effectiveness of education given to midwifery students with The Pecha Kucha Method on climate change awareness: A randomized controlled experimental study.}, journal = {Nurse education today}, volume = {153}, number = {}, pages = {106809}, doi = {10.1016/j.nedt.2025.106809}, pmid = {40561891}, issn = {1532-2793}, abstract = {AIM: This study was conducted using Pecha-Kucha and PowerPoint presentation methods to raise midwifery students' awareness of climate change and to integrate it into midwifery education.<br><br>BACKGROUND: Education is a social tipping intervention needed to stabilize the world's climate by 2050. Integrating sustainable health services into health professions curricula is an important action to raise awareness.<br><br>DESIGN: Randomized-control design was used. The setting was a midwifery department of faculty health science at a public university in Turkey.<br><br>METHODS: This study was randomly assigned to either the intervention group (Pecha-Kucha method) or the control group (PowerPoint presentation method). Before the training, students completed an Introductory Information Form and the University Students' Awareness Scale for Global Climate Change (USASGCC). Following the climate change education, students' post-training awareness was again assessed with the USASGCC. To evaluate students' satisfaction with the training methods, a Visual Analog Scale (VAS) was administered to both groups immediately after the training session.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 210 midwifery students participated in this study. The awareness levels of students who learned about climate change with the Pecha-Kucha method were significantly higher than those who received this training with the PowerPoint presentation method (19.27&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;1.43 vs. 13.75&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;2.38 p &#x2c2; 0.05, respectively). In addition, the satisfaction scores of the Pecha-Kucha group were also found to be significantly higher than those of the PowerPoint group.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The Pecha-Kucha presentation format was engaging and pleasurable for the audience. The students' climate change awareness levels were found to be quite high with the use of this method. Given its positive impact on both awareness and satisfaction, this educational model can be recommended for use in other course contents in midwifery education.}, }
@article {pmid40561582, year = {2025}, author = {Hawkins, J and Tremblay, B and Hawkins, RJ and Parrott, J}, title = {A comparative analysis of relationships among demographics, political affiliation and ideology, climate change, and health perceptions.}, journal = {Nursing outlook}, volume = {73}, number = {4}, pages = {102462}, doi = {10.1016/j.outlook.2025.102462}, pmid = {40561582}, issn = {1528-3968}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impact of climate change on health is an increasing concern, with risks unevenly distributed.<br><br>PURPOSE: To analyze existing data to describe and compare relationships among demographics, political affiliation and ideology, climate change, and health perceptions.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional comparative analysis of secondary data.<br><br>RESULTS: There are significant differences in levels of concern ofabout the impact of climate change on health based on race, gender, and political ideology. Those who identified as female or Black reported being more concerned than their White and male counterparts. The level of concern for the impact of climate change on health was higher among participants who identified as liberal than those who identified as conservative.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Differences in level of concern may indicate that some populations are impacted disproportionately as well as a lack of accurate information on the known connections between climate and health.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The health impacts of climate change are a concern for many. Therefore, we recommend nurses and other health professionals actively engage in community education and climate-related policy development to address the concerns of individuals.}, }
@article {pmid40561109, year = {2025}, author = {Chen, G and Zhang, D and Zhao, J and Zhang, L}, title = {Land use and climate change-based multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem service trade-offs/synergies: A case study of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration, China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {e0324015}, pmid = {40561109}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Soil/chemistry ; Urbanization ; Computer Simulation ; }, abstract = {Exploring Land use and climate change-based multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem service trade-offs/synergies is of great importance to regional ecological security and sustainable development. Taking the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration (CYUA) as a case study, six different scenarios of LULC-RCP were established to quantitatively assess four key ecosystem services(ESs) of water yield (WY), carbon stock (CS), soil conservation (SR) and habitat quality (HQ) with multiple objective programming and patch-generating land use simulation(MOP-PLUS) and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) models. The ESs were revealed regarding spatio-temporal trade-offs/synergies using Spearman correlation and geographically weighted regression (GWR). It was found that: (1)the ESs in CYUA is characterized with high spatial heterogeneity in 2030; specifically, the distribution of WY and SR was low in the northwestern region and high in the southeastern region, while the distribution of HQ and CS was high in the western region and the periphery, and low in the eastern and central regions; (2) the trade-offs between WY-HQ, and WY-CS, and the synergies between WY-SR, HQ-SR, HQ-CS, HQ-CS, and HQ-SR; (3) under the six different scenarios, the spatial distribution of trade-offs/synergies between the four ESs was consistent: the SR-HQ, SR-CS, and WY-CS showed an overall weak synergistic relationship; the HQ-CS showed an overall weak trade-offs; the HQ-WY, CS-WY showed an overall weak synergistic relationship in the northern and southern areas and an overall weak trade-off relationship in the center. The findings of this study may provide a theoretical foundation for ecosystem management in CYUA and offer technical support for the evaluation of national land space.}, }
@article {pmid40561098, year = {2025}, author = {Hawkins, J}, title = {The Critical Role of Environmental Health and Climate Change in Nursing Education Research.}, journal = {Nursing education perspectives}, volume = {46}, number = {4}, pages = {E34}, pmid = {40561098}, issn = {1536-5026}, }
@article {pmid40561029, year = {2025}, author = {Duquesne, E and Fournier, D}, title = {Climate change redefines sea turtle hotspots: Vessel strike risks and gaps in protected areas.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {11}, number = {26}, pages = {eadw4495}, pmid = {40561029}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Animals ; *Turtles/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Ships ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering marine ecosystems, driving shifts in sea turtle distributions and challenging conservation efforts. Our study examines how climate change affects the global sea distribution of all seven sea turtle species, intersecting with marine protected areas (MPAs) and shipping corridors. Using species distribution models and environmental data from 2000 to 2024, we project sea turtle habitats under current conditions and three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for 2050 and 2100. Our results show substantial habitat redistributions, with poleward shifts and contractions, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Over 50% of sea turtle hotspots may disappear by 2050, with many new habitats in high shipping intensity areas. Alarmingly, only 23% of current hotspots are within MPAs, highlighting the need for adaptive conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40561014, year = {2025}, author = {Stewart, JD and Tinker, MT and Brownell, RL and Read, AJ}, title = {The future of baleen whales: Recoveries, environmental constraints, and climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {11}, number = {26}, pages = {eadv8031}, pmid = {40561014}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Whales/physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Ecosystem ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environment ; }, abstract = {Most baleen whales were severely overexploited during the past century, but many populations have received near-complete protection from exploitation for more than a half-century. Some of these populations have made remarkable recoveries and are now approaching pre-exploitation levels of abundance. Contrary to expectations of baleen whales making minor oscillations around equilibrium abundances, several populations that have made the strongest recoveries have experienced major mortality events. We review examples from the literature showing increasing demographic variability in recovering populations of baleen whales and present a simulation study on the expected response of recovered versus depleted whale population to environmental variability and climate impacts. We propose that baleen whales are more sensitive to environmental variability than previously recognized; that major demographic fluctuations will become the norm as baleen whales recover; and that climate-driven disruptions to whale population dynamics will be most dramatic in populations with the lowest rates of anthropogenic mortality.}, }
@article {pmid40559056, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, J and Wang, S and Li, Y and Ding, S and Wei, Z and Shi, A and Yang, D}, title = {Distribution Pattern and Change Prediction of Luprops orientalis (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) Suitable Area in East Asia Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {40559056}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2024NSFSC0076//the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province, China/ ; 2024QD19//Research on Prediction of Potential Habitat Suitability for Invasive Alien Insects in Dazhou City, Sichuan Province/ ; }, abstract = {Luprops orientalis (Motschulsky, 1868) is an economically important pest in traditional Chinese medicines, widely distributed in East Asia. However, the primary limiting factors affecting its distribution, potential suitable areas, as well as its response to global warming, remain largely unknown. Utilizing 295 filtered distribution points and 10 environmental variables (9 climate variables and 1 land cover type), this study uses the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of L. orientalis under near-current and future environmental change scenarios. The results indicated that precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), temperature seasonality (bio04), and precipitation of the wettest month (bio13) were the most significant environmental variables affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for L. orientalis, while the contribution of average variation in daytime temperature (bio2) was the smallest. Under the near-current climate, the areas of low, moderate, and high suitability for L. orientalis are approximately 1.02 × 10[6] km[2], 1.65 × 10[6] km[2], and 8.22 × 10[5] km[2], respectively. The suitable areas are primarily located in North China, Central China, the Korean Peninsula, and Central and Southern Japan. Under future climate conditions, the potential suitable areas are expected to expand significantly, especially in Central China. However, the high-suitability areas in North China are predicted to experience a slight reduction. With the increase in carbon emission concentrations, the suitable area shows an increasing trend in the 2050s, followed by a declining trend in the 2090s. The centroids of suitable areas will shift to the northeast in the future. These findings enhance our understanding of how climate change affects the distribution of L. orientalis and will assist governments in formulating effective pest control strategies, including widespread monitoring and stringent quarantine measures.}, }
@article {pmid40557949, year = {2025}, author = {Espinosa, S and Martínez, F and Antiñolo, M and Nielsen, OJ and Jiménez, E}, title = {Updated global warming potentials of inhaled halogenated anesthetics, isoflurane and sevoflurane from new temperature dependent OH-kinetics.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1039/d5em00061k}, pmid = {40557949}, issn = {2050-7895}, abstract = {Despite the use of scavenging systems in anesthesia machines, inhaled halogenated anesthetic gases (HAGs), such as isoflurane (CF3CHClOCHF2) and sevoflurane ((CF3)2CHOCH2F), are still emitted directly into the atmosphere. In 2014, their atmospheric concentrations were 0.097 ppt (isoflurane) and 0.13 pptv (sevoflurane). As halogenated species, their impact on global warming has to be known. Notably, the global warming potential at a time horizon of 100 years (GWP100 years) for sevoflurane differs between IPCC and WMO sources, creating regulatory uncertainty. For that reason, in this work GWP100 years for isoflurane and sevoflurane was reevaluated from the atmospheric chemical lifetimes, τOHHAG, derived from the kinetic study of the gas-phase reactions of hydroxyl (OH) radicals with the HAGs and the radiative efficiencies (REs) derived from the (IR) absorption cross sections in the atmospheric window (1500-500 cm[-1]). The temperature dependence of the OH-rate coefficients (k1(T) for isoflurane and k2(T) for sevoflurane) between 263 and 353 K was determined at 100 Torr by using the pulsed laser photolysis/laser-induced fluorescence technique. The obtained Arrhenius expressions are k1(T) = (1.1 ± 0.5) × 10[-13] exp{-(1234 ± 144)/T} and k2(T) = (1.6 ± 0.7) × 10[-12] exp{-(1065 ± 138)/T} cm[3] molecule[-1] s[-1]. At 272 K, a τOHHAG of 3.0 years for isoflurane and 1.2 years for sevoflurane were estimated relative to CH3CCl3 from k1 and k2. Moreover, the ultraviolet (UV) absorption cross sections were determined between 190 and 400 nm at 298 K, and the absorption was found to be negligible above 290 nm, indicating minimal photolysis by sunlight. In contrast, the IR absorption in the atmospheric window is significant and the IR absorption cross sections (4000-500 cm[-1]) were determined by Fourier Transform infrared spectroscopy. The lifetime-corrected radiative efficiencies (REs) were 0.44 and 0.30 W m[-2] ppbv[-1] for isoflurane and sevoflurane, respectively. From lifetime-corrected REs and τOHHAG, GWP100 years was estimated to be 508 for isoflurane (5% lower than IPCC/WMO values) and 125 for sevoflurane (36% lower than IPCC and 11% lower than WMO). These findings confirm isoflurane to be a high-GWP gas (above 150) according to the EU 2024 regulation, while sevoflurane does not meet the high-GWP threshold. A reassessment of the IPCC and WMO values is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid40557124, year = {2025}, author = {Xiang, Y and Li, Y and Liu, Y and Yuan, Y and Li, S and Yang, Q and Zhang, J}, title = {Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Distribution Dynamics of Lysimachia Christinae in China Through MaxEnt Modeling.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {e71664}, pmid = {40557124}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Lysimachia christinae, a regionally endemic medicinal plant in China, is crucial for ecosystems and traditional medicine. This study evaluates climate change impacts on the geographic spread of L. christinae by employing an optimized MaxEnt model based on 625 valid occurrence points and various climatic variables. The model was refined with ENMeval in R, selecting optimal feature combinations (FC) and regularization multipliers (RM). The model's predictive performance was evaluated via the AUC metric, and the distribution changes were analyzed across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) spanning the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s. The findings indicated that the refined MaxEnt model exhibited strong predictive performance, achieving an AUC of 0.904. The min temperature of coldest month (Bio6) and the standard deviation of temperature seasonality (Bio4) were identified as the principal climatic variables affecting the geographic range of L. christinae, contributing 68.7% and 20.2%, respectively, under current climatic conditions. Within the SSP1-2.6 pathway, the viable habitat zone remained relatively stable, with retention rates of 86.78%, 86.13%, and 82.03% during the decades of the 2050s, 2070s, as well as 2090s. However, in the context of the SSP5-8.5 pathway, the retention rate significantly decreased to 64.77% by the 2090s, indicating greater habitat instability and expansion needs. The research highlights the critical role of thermal variables in shaping L. christinae's distribution and emphasizes the need for adaptive conservation strategies targeting stable or expanding habitats to ensure its long-term survival amid climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40556663, year = {2025}, author = {Bailey, LA and Childs, AR and James, NC and Duncan, MI and Pringle, BA and Potts, WM}, title = {Assessing individual physiological variability and future performance phenotypes is essential for predicting the resilience of fish populations to anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {coaf043}, pmid = {40556663}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Changes in ocean temperature are expected to have a considerable effect on fishes through the impact of temperature on physiological performance, vital energetic processes (i.e. metabolism, foraging and swimming style) and reproductive fitness. To understand the sensitivity of an exploited population of Chrysoblephus laticeps in to temperature variability, intermittent-flow respirometry was used to quantify and compare changes in metabolic rate and aerobic scope under different temperatures (10, 16, 21 and 24°C) mimicking thermal variations experienced in the home range of this species. A total performance score was developed to represent aerobic performance across the range of test temperatures. This score was calculated for each temperature from the lower (25%), mid (50%) and upper (75%) percentiles of the aerobic scope range available for the species. The results of this study identified heterogeneity in physiological performance phenotypes amongst individuals of the exploited population. There was significant variation in the aerobic performance of high, intermediate and low performers at higher temperatures. However, differences in performance were not significant at low temperatures, where several intermediate performers maintained high performance. High performers maintained high rates of physiological performance across a broad range of temperatures, whereas low performers were physiologically limited outside of their optimal thermal range. These results suggest that individuals with a broad aerobic scope (i.e. high aerobic scope (AS) values across a range of temperatures) may likely be the most resilient to short-term thermal variability caused by marine heat waves and upwelling events in temperate coastal environments. Since the shape of thermal performance curves differs between individuals and reflects the range at which individuals can function above specified performance thresholds, individual thermal performance must be measured repeatedly in the same individual over a thermal gradient. An understanding of physiological phenotypic diversity amongst individuals is critical to understand the impacts of thermal variability on fished populations.}, }
@article {pmid40554885, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, M and Wang, Z and Wang, M and Li, X and Zhang, Y and Yang, B and Lai, C}, title = {A framework for optimization and assessment of long-term urban stormwater management scenarios under climate change and performance challenges.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {390}, number = {}, pages = {126298}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126298}, pmid = {40554885}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {In the context of global warming and the increase in extreme rainfall events, the introduction of grey-green integrated infrastructure offers new possibilities for urban flood management. However, within these integrated systems, green infrastructure is more vulnerable to climate fluctuations and has a shorter lifespan, posing challenges to maximizing the overall benefits. Consequently, this study conducted a multi-stage optimization at a representative site in Guangzhou, China, to explore the most effective configuration of grey and green infrastructure under climate change, and to assess the short-term and long-term benefits of these optimized layouts. While multi-stage optimized layouts have slightly higher life cycle costs compared to directly optimized layouts with the same level of centralization, they demonstrate superior hydrological performance in simulations. In the short term, these layouts exhibit greater robustness under various design rainfall scenarios, with up to a 56.79 % improvement in runoff reduction compared to traditional direct optimization layouts. Over the long term, multi-stage optimized layouts continue to show better performance, but with an average maximum improvement of 9.47 % in runoff reduction. As global warming intensifies, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall events, urban stormwater management planning and design must embrace a more sustainable and forward-looking approach.}, }
@article {pmid40554223, year = {2025}, author = {Ngongo, CJ and Bisanzio, D and Corrigan, G and Angendu, KB and Smith-Arthur, A and Hutchinson, B and Akilimali, P}, title = {Country-level impact of climate change on maternal and newborn health: Associations between temperature, precipitation, maternal mortality, stillbirth, and neonatal mortality in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {202}, number = {}, pages = {109564}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2025.109564}, pmid = {40554223}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Evidence connecting extreme heat to maternal and newborn health outcomes is needed at country level, especially in tropical areas. DHIS2 (District Health Information Software 2) collects aggregated population health data by health zone in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).<br><br>METHODS: Drawing from DHIS2 records of 22&#xb7;7 million DRC births 2018-2023, spatio-temporal modeling assessed associations between maternal mortality, stillbirth, and neonatal mortality and same-month, remotely sensed temperature, precipitation, anomalous high temperature (>95th percentile), and anomalous heavy precipitation (>95th percentile), controlling for month, year, remoteness, and health zone.<br><br>FINDINGS: Temperatures&#xa0;>&#xa0;34&#xa0;&#xb0;C and anomalous heavy precipitation were strongly associated with increases in same-month stillbirth and maternal mortality and less strongly associated with neonatal mortality. The stillbirth rate rose by 2&#xb7;3/1,000 births for every degree increase above 34&#xa0;&#xb0;C (95% CI: 1&#xb7;9; 2&#xb7;5) or by 5&#xb7;9/1,000 births in months&#xa0;>&#xa0;95th percentile (32&#xb7;9&#xa0;&#xb0;C; 95% CI: 5&#xb7;1; 6&#xb7;7). Maternal mortality rose by 27&#xb7;3 deaths/100,000 live births for every degree increase above 34&#xa0;&#xb0;C (95% CI: 19&#xb7;1; 35&#xb7;7) or by 95&#xb7;3 deaths/100,000 live births in months&#xa0;>&#xa0;95th percentile (95% CI: 71&#xb7;3; 119&#xb7;4). Months with anomalous heavy precipitation were associated with an increase of 5&#xb7;4 stillbirths/1,000 births (95% CI: 4&#xb7;8; 6&#xb7;2) and with 120 maternal deaths/100,000 live births (95% CI: 100&#xb7;9; 139&#xb7;5).<br><br>INTERPRETATION: DHIS2 data offer a readily available opportunity to assess associations between climate and country-level population health outcomes. Further work is needed to hone and evaluate effective approaches that protect mothers and newborns in the face of projected warming and rainfall changes. Risk-based planning, geographic targeting, and stakeholder coordination will support appropriate, context-specific responses.}, }
@article {pmid40554152, year = {2025}, author = {Shi, L and Zhao, Y and Zeng, S and Liu, Z and Shao, M and Zhao, M and He, H and Zeng, C and Han, Y and Hao, P and Tang, L}, title = {Land-use management and climate change can enhance the autotrophic capacity and reduce the CO2 emissions of karst aquatic ecosystems.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {284}, number = {}, pages = {124031}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2025.124031}, pmid = {40554152}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {The carbon flux involved in aquatic metabolism in karst surface waters is an important component of both regional and global carbon cycling. Yet, the mechanisms of how aquatic metabolism and the related carbon flux respond to human land use and climate change in a high-pH aquatic environment remain unclear. To address this, we conducted continuous high-frequency (15-min interval) monitoring of hydrochemical parameters, combined with a bookkeeping model and gas transport velocity model, to estimate the aquatic net ecosystem primary (NEP) and water-air CO2 exchange flux (FCO2) under different land-use types at a simulation test site. We then used a structural equation model (SEM) and Random Forest model (RF) to determine the relationship between NEP, land-use type, and climatic factors, and to determine how NEP variations alter the FCO2. The results showed that the annual NEP of karst surface water systems under bare rock (0.01 g C m[-2] day[-1]) was significantly lower than under vegetated land (shrubs, grass and cropland, 0.38-0.75 g C m[-2] day[-1]). This high NEP demonstrates a strong autotrophic capacity and the potential to reduce CO2 emissions in these aquatic systems. Our results also suggest that differences in groundwater HCO3[-] inputs between bare rock/soil and vegetated land can explain their NEP differences. We applied the RF model to predict the variation of the NEP of different land-use systems by the end of this century, under different CMIP6 scenarios. The results suggested that land-use regulation (the conversion from bare rock or soil to grass or shrubs) can increase the autotrophic capacity of karst surface systems by 42.3 % (SSP126) and 51.5 % (SSP585). The results of this study indicate that human land-use change can potentially enhance the autotrophic capacity and lower the CO2 emissions of high-pH karst aquatic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid40553596, year = {2025}, author = {Mohapatra, PR and Behera, B}, title = {Melioidosis on the Rise: The Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Weather.}, journal = {The Journal of the Association of Physicians of India..}, volume = {73}, number = {6}, pages = {73-76}, doi = {10.59556/japi.73.1023}, pmid = {40553596}, issn = {0004-5772}, mesh = {Humans ; *Melioidosis/epidemiology/transmission ; *Climate Change ; *Extreme Weather ; Burkholderia pseudomallei ; }, abstract = {Melioidosis is a bacterial infection caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei, primarily a disease in tropical and subtropical regions. The bacteria are typically spread through contaminated soil, water, or air. The incidence of transmission tends to increase during extreme weather conditions. In recent times, there has been a noticeable rise in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events due to global warming. This includes heat waves, storms, cyclones, heavy rainfall, and floods, which have been on the rise. Climate change is expected to increase extreme weather events further and, coupled with human activities, expand the geographical spread of melioidosis. These events have had significant consequences on human health worldwide. Developing a new evidence-based understanding of how melioidosis intersects with natural disasters is crucial. Prioritizing health, well-being, and fairness in climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies is essential.}, }
@article {pmid40551972, year = {2025}, author = {Pinho, M}, title = {Climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behaviours: disentangling gender disparities.}, journal = {Frontiers in sociology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1589501}, pmid = {40551972}, issn = {2297-7775}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change represents the most significant environmental and social issue of our time. Climate change anxiety has been identified as a relevant consequence of climate change globally.<br><br>METHODS: The current study explored how climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behaviour vary with gender and social psychological characteristics, using a nationally representative Portuguese sample.<br><br>RESULTS: The findings revealed that women reported higher levels of climate change anxiety compared to men, and this was driven by women's higher levels of climate change anxiety cognitive impairment. Women also indicated more frequent pro-environmental behaviours, higher levels of environmental identity and climate change perceptions than men. The findings further showed similar relations for men and women, between social psychological mechanisms (environmental identity and climate change perceptions) and their impact on climate change anxiety and some types of pro-environmental behaviours. The results also demonstrated that climate change perceptions mediated the effect of environmental identity on pro-environmental behaviours and those mediations were further moderated by gender.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The results highlight the importance of exploring the gender gap in environmental related attitudes and behaviours and the incorporation of gender mainstreaming in environmental sustainability policies and programmes.}, }
@article {pmid40551155, year = {2025}, author = {Mizsei, E and Sos, T and Móré, A and Wenner, B and Rák, G and Mebert, K}, title = {Restriction times on the rise: mechanistic modelling of activity time of grassland vipers (Vipera spp.) in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in zoology}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {10}, pmid = {40551155}, issn = {1742-9994}, support = {LIFE18 NAT/HU/000799//LIFE programme/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens species adapted to cool alpine environments, particularly ectotherms like reptiles. Small-sized grassland specialist vipers inhabit such environments in Eurasia and are highly susceptible to overheating and dehydration as global temperature rises. This study modelled activity restriction times, defined as hours when environmental temperatures exceed the thermal tolerance (i.e. not available for essential activities) of the species, for 20 grassland viper taxa to assess climate change impacts. Under future conditions, hours of activity restriction are projected to increase by 21% by the SSP1-2.6 scenario, and by 52.1% by the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Elevation and latitude significantly influenced restriction time changes, with high-altitude and northern populations predicted to be most affected. The taxa Vipera graeca and Vipera ursinii moldavica are expected to experience the greatest increase in restriction times. Despite warmer conditions potentially increasing hours within preferred thermal ranges, vipers are unlikely to exploit lower-elevation habitats due to competition and ecological constraints. These findings emphasise the urgent need for conservation strategies, including habitat preservation and connectivity, to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on grassland vipers, particularly the most vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid40550882, year = {2025}, author = {Castelvecchi, D}, title = {'Natural history museums can save the world': anti-colonialism, conservation and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {642}, number = {8069}, pages = {861-863}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-025-01970-8}, pmid = {40550882}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid40549916, year = {2025}, author = {Ittonen, M and Nielsen, ME and Siemers, I and Friberg, M and Gotthard, K}, title = {Winters restrict a climate change-driven butterfly range expansion despite rapid evolution of seasonal timing traits.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {26}, pages = {e2418392122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2418392122}, pmid = {40549916}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {VR 2017-04159//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det (VR)/ ; VR 2017-04500//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det (VR)/ ; CTS 17:163//Carl Tryggers Stiftelse f&#xf6;r Vetenskaplig Forskning (Carl Trygger Foundation)/ ; N/A//Bolin Centre for Climate Research/ ; N/A//Bolin Centre for Climate Research/ ; N/A//Alice och Lars Si&#xe9;ns fond/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Butterflies/physiology/growth &amp; development ; *Seasons ; *Climate Change ; *Biological Evolution ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Larva/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change pushes species toward higher latitudes and altitudes, but the proximate drivers of range expansions vary, and it is unclear whether evolution facilitates climate change-induced range changes. In a temporally replicated field experiment, we translocated wall brown butterflies (Lasiommata megera) descending from range interior and range margin populations to sites at 1) the range interior, 2) the range margin, and 3) beyond the current northern range edge. Thereby, we tested for local adaptation in seasonal timing and winter survival and evaluated to what extent local adaptation influences the ongoing, climate-driven range expansion. Almost all individuals from all populations entered diapause at an appropriate time, despite previously identified among-population variation in diapause induction thresholds. Caterpillars of northern descent, however, grew faster than those from southern populations at all field sites. This may be a countergradient adaptation to compensate for the short, northern growing seasons, but we found no evidence for prewinter body mass affecting winter survival. In fact, winter survival was low overall-extremely so at the beyond range site-regardless of population origin, indicating that the primary constraint to range expansion is an inability to adapt to winter conditions. Hence, although range-expanding wall browns show clear local evolution of two traits related to seasonal timing, these putative local adaptations likely do not contribute to range expansion, which is instead limited by winter survival. To predict future range changes, it will be important to distinguish between the traits that evolve during range expansion and those that set the range limit.}, }
@article {pmid40549910, year = {2025}, author = {Boonman, CCF and Hoeks, S and Serra-Diaz, JM and Guo, WY and Enquist, BJ and Maitner, B and Merow, C and Svenning, JC}, title = {High tree diversity exposed to unprecedented macroclimatic conditions even under minimal anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {26}, pages = {e2420059122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2420059122}, pmid = {40549910}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {16549//Villum Fonden (Villum Foundation)/ ; DNRF173//Danish National Research Foundation/ ; 80NSSC22K0883//NASA (NASA)/ ; 2225078//NSF (NSF)/ ; ANR-21-CE32-0003//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR)/ ; RYC2022-035668-I//MEC | Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n (AEI)/ ; 2225076//NSF (NSF)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; *Trees/physiology/classification ; Ecosystem ; Anthropogenic Effects ; }, abstract = {Tree species worldwide face increasing exposure to unprecedented macroclimatic conditions due to anthropogenic climate change, which may trigger biome shifts and ecosystem disruptions. We quantified climate change exposure-shifts to species' currently unoccupied climate zones-for 32,089 tree species globally by 2100, assessing both species-level and local tree diversity risks. On average, 69% of species are predicted to experience macroclimatic shifts in at least 10% of their range, while 14% face exposure in over 50% of their range under a high-emission (4 °C warming) future scenario. This suggests that most species retain substantial climate refugia within their current range. However, local tree diversity exposure is predicted to be severe in vast regions, including Eurasia, the northwestern United States and Canada, northern Chile, and the Amazon Delta. Under a moderate (2 °C warming) scenario, high tree diversity exposure is mostly restricted to taiga regions in the Northern Hemisphere. These findings provide conservative estimates of climate-driven biodiversity risk, as our approach focuses solely on macroclimate and does not account for additional stressors such as land-use change or species interactions. Identifying tree species and areas of high macroclimatic shift exposure allows for targeted conservation strategies, including species stability monitoring, assisted migration, and the protection of climate refugia. Our results offer a foundation for prioritizing conservation actions in a rapidly changing climate, ensuring long-term ecosystem resilience.}, }
@article {pmid40549184, year = {2025}, author = {Lourenço, J and Geraldes, MA}, title = {The Links Between Dengue Virus, Climate and Climate Change.}, journal = {Current topics in microbiology and immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40549184}, issn = {0070-217X}, abstract = {Climate plays a crucial role in shaping dengue virus (DENV) transmission dynamics by influencing directly the physical and behavioural traits of mosquito individuals and viral replication. This chapter describes and evidences the intricate relationships between climate variables, mosquito traits and DENV transmission, highlighting the importance of understanding such connections in the context of a growing DENV burden and a global environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid40547459, year = {2025}, author = {Nazakat, R and Ibrahim, MF and Arsad, FS and Mohammad Sham, N and Nik Hassan, NMN and Mohamad, N and Rashid, SA and Wan Mahiyuddin, WR and Ismail, R}, title = {Validation of a questionnaire for assessing household vulnerability to climate change and health among small island communities.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1593880}, pmid = {40547459}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Surveys and Questionnaires/standards ; *Vulnerable Populations/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Female ; Male ; *Family Characteristics ; Reproducibility of Results ; Adult ; Islands ; Middle Aged ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Small island communities in tropical regions are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive tool to assess their health vulnerability, particularly at the household level. This study addresses this gap by developing and validating a questionnaire to evaluate household vulnerability to climate change and health in these communities.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: The questionnaire was constructed in three phases: questionnaire development, validity assessment, and pilot testing. It was developed using a comprehensive framework that incorporated three key dimensions of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.<br><br>RESULTS: Content validity, evaluated by a panel of experts, demonstrated excellent item-level and scale-level validity indices with S-CVI/UA and S-CVI/Ave of 0.89 and 0.98, respectively. Pilot testing conducted in Carey Island identified 13.5% of households as highly vulnerable. Key contributing factors include high exposure to drought and shoreline erosion, limited access to healthcare, insufficient financial resources, lack of elevated housing structures, and inadequate community engagement and adaptive behavior.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The validated tool provides a reliable and context-specific instrument for identifying vulnerable households, enabling policymakers and practitioners to design tailored interventions. This tool provides a structured and evidence-based approach for assessing vulnerability, supporting more effective planning and resilience-building in small island communities facing climate-related health risks.}, }
@article {pmid40547048, year = {2025}, author = {Yin, J and Brooks, M and Wang, D and Chi, G}, title = {Characterizing climate change sentiments in Alaska on social media.}, journal = {Digital geography and society}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40547048}, issn = {2666-3783}, support = {P2C HD041025/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {The profound impacts of climate change have spurred global concerns. Yet, public perceptions of this issue exhibit significant variations rooted in local contexts. This study investigates public perceptions of climate change in Alaska on Twitter and explores their connections with local socioeconomic and environmental factors. Using geo-located tweets from 2014 to 2017, we identified a collection of climate-related tweets using a deep learning framework. Employing lexicon-based sentiment analysis, we quantified the sentiments with positive and negative scores, further enriched by extracting eight core emotions expressed in each tweet. Furthermore, we applied regression models to assess the influence of regional socioeconomic and environmental attributes on climate-related sentiments at the census tract level. Our findings reveal an overall upward trajectory of Alaska's Twitter-expressed climate change sentiments over time, particularly during the summer months. Insights into the interplay between local demographics and environmental features and climate change perceptions include: (1) Census tracts with higher Native Alaskan or American Indian populations tend to express more negative sentiments, (2) the inclusion of road density stands out as a significant factor, suggesting that climate change is seen/discussed more in areas with more dense-built infrastructure, and (3) the presence of mixed emotions exhibits a profound connection with climate change sentiments-i.e., emotions of disgust and surprise are inversely related, whereas sadness and trust demonstrate positive associations. These outcomes underscore an evolving situation awareness of climate change among individuals, emphasizing the need to consider local factors in understanding public perceptions of this global issue.}, }
@article {pmid40546124, year = {2025}, author = {Brennan, EJ}, title = {Differential Mortality Trends at the Intersection of Climate Change and Urban Growth From 13th to 18th Century Berlin.}, journal = {American journal of biological anthropology}, volume = {187}, number = {2}, pages = {e70071}, pmid = {40546124}, issn = {2692-7691}, support = {//University of South Carolina Office of the Vice President for Research/ ; RFF 2021-170//Rust Family Foundation/ ; BCS-2120106//Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change/history ; Male ; Female ; *Mortality/history/trends ; Berlin/epidemiology ; Adult ; History, Medieval ; *Urbanization/history ; History, 18th Century ; Middle Aged ; History, 15th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 16th Century ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to evaluate differences in adult mortality risk at the intersection of climate change and urbanization between late medieval (c. 1200-1500) and early modern (c. 1500-1800) Berlin. After the founding of the city in c. 1200, the early modern period saw increased population density and the advent of the Little Ice Age (LIA), whose long winters and wet summers destroyed crop yields.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: To test the hypothesis that mortality risk increased in the early modern period, this study examined Gompertz and Gompertz-Makeham mortality curves for adult individuals (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;274) dated from c. 1200 to 1717 Berlin. To evaluate the magnitude of differences in mortality by time period and estimated sex, a Cox Proportional Hazards analysis was used.<br><br>RESULTS: All adults faced a decreased risk of mortality in the early modern period compared to the late medieval period. In both time periods, estimated females faced a higher risk of mortality compared to estimated males, though this difference was only statistically significant in the early modern period.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Decreased risk of mortality may indicate protective effects of urban life, even with the climatic variability of the LIA. The early modern period saw the proliferation of public hospitals and an increase in medical publications. Higher mortality risks for estimated females at this time may be a result of differential education and heightened religious tensions that resulted in witchcraft persecutions, possibly affecting social determinants of health for women at the time.}, }
@article {pmid40543318, year = {2025}, author = {Anshassi, M}, title = {Global warming potential implications of US waste LCA assumptions: A perturbation-based approach for decision support.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {204}, number = {}, pages = {114953}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2025.114953}, pmid = {40543318}, issn = {1879-2456}, abstract = {Waste management decision makers often rely on LCA findings to determine effective strategies to reduce environmental impacts, of which climate change mitigation has become centerstage. The complexity of conducting an LCA for waste management decision making is typically simplified using comprehensive models developed for wide region (e.g., United States, United Kingdom, Denmark) containing geographic and temporal metadata particular to the region. The aims of this study are to: 1) determine hotspot assumptions triggering the greatest sensitivity to the global warming potential (GWP) indicator for the management of various waste components in the US; and 2) inform on data collection approaches decision makers may use to improve their waste LCA by applying the findings of the first aim to a US context. A perturbation analysis was conducted for several recycling, landfilling, and combusting parameters using the Solid Waste Optimization Framework (SWOLF) Model. For landfilling, critical assumptions included landfill gas management factors such as lifetime gas collection efficiency, the type of gas management employed, and the bulk decay rate. In recycling, the most influential factor was the material substitution ratio. For combustion, key parameters were the avoided emissions from the electrical grid mixture and the types of metals recovered from the ash. Whenever data is available it should be supplemented in place of defaults to reduce uncertainty in waste LCA tools, especially the parameters highlighted that have influential impacts on results.}, }
@article {pmid40542703, year = {2025}, author = {Grover, P and Verduzco-Gutierrez, M and Annaswamy, T}, title = {A socioecological approach to understanding and positively affecting the intersectionality between disability, race and ethnicity, climate change, and rehabilitation outcomes: A scoping review.}, journal = {PM &amp; R : the journal of injury, function, and rehabilitation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/pmrj.13401}, pmid = {40542703}, issn = {1934-1563}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Health care outcomes for people with disability may be disproportionately affected by climate change through multiple interlinked factors, which are not well understood. Objective With use of scoping review methodology, this study aimed to model this intersectionality using socioecological (SE) levels to connect person-level rehabilitation diagnoses with systems/policy-level climate change and use this model to identify multilevel factors, rehabilitation outcomes, and responsive strategies from literature.<br><br>METHODS: A scoping review of literature was conducted using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews methodology from three databases (PubMed Medline, Ovid Medline, CINAHL) using combinations of keywords (climate change), (rehabilitation), (disability), and (race). Logic and SE models were combined to model this intersectionality and create review forms that were used to abstract data. Common themes were collated (results), and additional experiential insight was added to provide contextual relevance (discussion).<br><br>RESULTS: Of 32 deduplicated articles, 11 met inclusion criteria for qualitative analysis. Rehabilitation outcomes included physical, economic, mental, cognitive, and mortality (person level); rehabilitation services disruption, medical supply delay, emergency capacity overwhelmed (organizational level); and disabled environment (community level). Responsive strategies included education, backup supplies, planning, social support/utility registration (person level); competency assessment/training, physical medicine and rehabilitation physicians (PM&amp;R) assisting patient in planning, providing pre-/postevent services, and establishing cross-coverage (interpersonal level); telerehabilitation, energy/resources conservation, PM&amp;R inclusion in disaster mitigation planning (organization level); building accessible/resilient infrastructure, evidence-based practice guidelines through professional organizations (community level); and research funding, utility companies prioritizing power, and patients/providers included in planning (system/policy level).<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate change impact on rehabilitation diagnoses such as spinal cord injury and limb loss, as well as intersectionality with rehabilitation outcomes and identified responsive strategies, has been comprehensively modeled using SE levels. Race is not a commonly identified factor.<br><br>CONCLUSION: PM&amp;R physicians can play a vital role in this intersectionality of disability, climate change, and rehabilitation outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid40542190, year = {2025}, author = {Hirata, R and Goodarzi, L and Rörig, FS and Alves, LM and Bertolo, R}, title = {Climate change impacts on groundwater: a growing challenge for water resources sustainability in Brazil.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {7}, pages = {784}, pmid = {40542190}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Brazil ; *Groundwater/chemistry ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Water Resources ; *Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Conservation of Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Despite Brazil's substantial freshwater reserves, regional disparities and increasing anthropogenic pressures have led to recurrent water scarcity, particularly in the northeast and central-west regions. Climate change is expected to intensify these challenges by further stressing surface and groundwater resources. This study estimates the impacts of climate change on future water availability in Brazil using a GIS-based distributed water balance model, particularly the aquifer recharge. Changes in precipitation, temperature, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge (GWR) were evaluated under two emission scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), based on bias-corrected CMIP6 projections for three future periods: 2025-2050 (F1), 2050-2075 (F2), and 2075-2100 (F3). Climate inputs were used to compute water balance parameters on a monthly basis, which were then aggregated to annual means and compared against a historical baseline (1980-2013). The results indicate an increase in average annual temperature under both emission scenarios. Under SSP245, the projected average temperature rise is 1.02 °C, 1.56 °C, and 1.94 °C for the periods F1, F2, and F3, respectively. Under SSP585, the temperature increase is more pronounced, with projections of 1.38 °C, 2.43 °C, and 3.66 °C for the same periods. Precipitation changes across the country are highly variable; however, the maps generally show a decrease in the northern and eastern regions. Changes in climate parameters are expected to impact annual runoff, with increases projected mainly in the southern and eastern regions. At the same time, decreases are anticipated in the north, west, and southeast regions, reaching up to - 261 mm/year. As surface water availability declines due to climate change, reliance on groundwater resources is expected to increase. However, climate change is projected to reduce GWR by up to - 666 mm/year directly. The Bauru-Caiuá Aquifer System is projected to experience the most severe reduction in GWR, with a decrease of up to - 27.94%. Other aquifers, such as Bambuí Cárstico, Furnas, Guarani, Parecis, Ponta Grossa, and Serra Geral, are also expected to face significant reductions in recharge. Therefore, an integrated approach to water resources management will be critical in these regions to effectively balance future water demand and supply.}, }
@article {pmid40541303, year = {2025}, author = {Samarasekera, U}, title = {Louise Kelly-Hope-infectious diseases and climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {25}, number = {7}, pages = {720}, doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(25)00368-8}, pmid = {40541303}, issn = {1474-4457}, }
@article {pmid40540187, year = {2025}, author = {Dumitran, GE and Vuta, LI}, title = {Adapt water reserves to climate change: study case Romania.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40540187}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {Gnac-ARUT//National Program for Research of the National Association of Technical Universities/ ; }, abstract = {At the regional level, hydrological factors, catchment properties, as well as the way water reserves are utilized, represent major determining factors of the reactions of lake ecosystems to climate change (CC). In this context, lakes also have a negative impact related to the large amounts of water they can consume through evaporation. This paper quantifies the effects of a small artificial lake-Dridu from Romania (with complex usage) on the environment in the context of CC, estimating the blue water footprint (WF) and carbon footprint (CF) under different use scenarios. Thus, an analysis of the evolution of CF and WF is conducted until 2100, considering forecasts of changes in average temperatures, as well as a partial coverage of the lake's surface with floating photovoltaic systems (FPV). During the study period from 2017 to 2021, the average WF was 0.054 million m[3], and the carbon intensity was 120.23 kg CO2e/MWh. By covering 2 ha of the reservoir's surface with FPV, the production and release of CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere decrease, on average, by 30% for WF and 28.13% for CF. For the CC scenarios, it is observed that WF will increase by an average of 10.4%, while the carbon footprint shows no significant variations. It is worth mentioning that this type of approach, e.g., impact of FPV on WF and CF, as well as the use of FPV as a measure of coping with CC, has not been studied yet in any region of Eastern Europe. This study, given that it deals with relatively new technologies (FPV), has some gaps, since the CF is computed based on estimates, not on measured data. However, the results and the methodology currently presented can be used by various stakeholders to identify the best coping mechanism for preserving the water quantity and for generating clean energy. Also, these types of studies can be a good stimulus for the authorities to develop and permit the placement of FPV on small reservoirs and to investigate the effects of such projects in terms of energy, FPV efficiency, water quantity, and quality, as it will allow the actual quantification of different effects and benefits brought by this technology (water quality indicators, GHG emission, reduction of evaporation, FPV energy output).}, }
@article {pmid40539289, year = {2025}, author = {Li, L and Cole, S and Rodriguez-Flores, JM and Hestir, E and Fink, D and Viers, JH and Medellin-Azuara, J and Conklin, M and Harmon, T}, title = {Synergies Between Agricultural Production and Shorebird Conservation With Climate Change in the Central Valley, California, With Optimized Water Allocation and Multi-Benefit Land Use.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {e70304}, pmid = {40539289}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {M21PR3417//University of California Multicampus Research Initiative Program/ ; 21-0557-000-SO//California Department of Food and Agriculture/ ; 1639268//National Science Foundation/ ; 2021-69012-35916//USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; California ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Animals ; *Agriculture/methods ; *Birds/physiology ; Biodiversity ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Conservation planning that enhances the resiliency of biodiversity to climate change requires adaptive water and land use decision-making in the most cost-efficient way. This has many challenges since landscapes with high biodiversity can embrace intense human production activities, particularly agriculture. Conventionally, water and land used for conservation are often regarded as tradeoffs to agricultural productivity. However, this study found that agricultural water and land use synergize with shorebird conservation in the Central Valley, California. If informed decisions are made to guide strategic land use, landscapes can adapt to climate change and offer multiple benefits. This study used a coupled economic optimization model with a species distribution model to consider human factors in ecological impacts. The objective was to assess the impacts of agricultural water and land use decisions under different climate change scenarios on 10 shorebird species populations in California's Central Valley. Our results showed that strategic water and land management can offer favorable habitats to targeted shorebirds with a land composition including diversified crop categories complementary to wetlands. This study demonstrates that agricultural lands can be as important as wetlands to shorebirds to sustain their migratory stages throughout the year. Wetland restoration without species habitat preference information can lead to population shrinkage since wetland types vary in habitat importance to the shorebird species studied in this research. Business as usual, along with land use and climate change, will decrease shorebirds' breeding season and population to the same degree as they impact non-breeding populations. The synergies between agricultural production and shorebird conservation were found in the scenarios that favor agricultural production water use but also favor habitat provisioning to shorebirds in the Central Valley, California, under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40538695, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, C and Zhang, K and Zhao, C and Yan, Y and Li, J}, title = {The impact of climate change on depression in rural Chinese older adult.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1610597}, pmid = {40538695}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; China/epidemiology ; Aged ; Female ; Male ; *Rural Population/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Longitudinal Studies ; *Depression/epidemiology ; Middle Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Quality of Life ; East Asian People ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: In recent years, the impact of climate change on the economy and society has become increasingly significant, with depression emerging as a major factor hindering individuals' daily functioning and quality of life. Rural older adult, due to their low income and inadequate social security, face particularly prominent depressive symptoms. However, existing research has predominantly focused on developed countries, with insufficient attention paid to depressive disorders among rural older adult populations in China.<br><br>METHODS: This study, based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2013 to 2020 and meteorological monitoring data, employs a two-way fixed effects model to examine the effects of climate change on depressive symptoms in rural older adult.<br><br>RESULTS: The findings reveal that: (1) extreme low temperatures are the primary climatic factor increasing depression risks of rural older adult; (2) the depression of women, those with low education levels, those engaged in agricultural activities, and widowed individuals is more significantly affected by low temperatures; (3) climate change directly heightens depression risks among rural older adult through heightened social isolation and loneliness. (4) climate change indirectly exacerbates depression risks through deteriorating physical health, reduced outdoor activities, declining cognitive abilities, and decreased sleep quality.<br><br>DISCUSSION: This study provides empirical evidence for policymakers to assess the health costs of climate change and propose targeted interventions for depressive disorders.}, }
@article {pmid40538687, year = {2025}, author = {Saadat, A and Zubair, R and Siddiqui, UI and Mughal, S}, title = {The contemporary spell of heat stroke in Karachi amid global warming and power crisis: a threatened call for medical emergency.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1469486}, pmid = {40538687}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; *Heat Stroke/mortality/epidemiology ; *Global Warming/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Air Pollution/adverse effects/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {The study examines the impact of population density, air pollution, and temperature on heat stroke cases in Karachi, focusing on stroke-related mortality from 2010 to 2024. It develops an intelligent system for adaptive forecasting, incorporating population increase, air quality, meteorological activity, and mortality data, presenting urban vulnerability to health crises. A Pearson correlation analysis was used to determine the association between these factors, which makes it possible to present urban vulnerability to health crises from various angles that are systematically relevant and interdependent at the same time. This study is unique because it takes an integrated approach, relating urban stressors and climate conditions to public health outcomes in Karachi, a context that has been neglected in previous studies.}, }
@article {pmid40538635, year = {2025}, author = {Cortés Arbués, I and Chatzivasileiadis, T and Storm, S and Ivanova, O and Filatova, T}, title = {Private investments in climate change adaptation are increasing in Europe, although sectoral differences remain.}, journal = {Communications earth &amp; environment}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {470}, pmid = {40538635}, issn = {2662-4435}, abstract = {Climate-induced hazards are becoming more frequent and severe, causing escalating economic losses worldwide. Consequently, climate change adaptation is increasingly necessary to protect people, nature and the economy. However, little is known about who is adapting and how much they spend on adaptation measures, especially in the private sector. This article focuses on firms-the backbone of economic development, yet understudied in climate adaptation research. Here we present insights from a unique panel dataset detailing businesses' adaptation investments across 28 European countries (2018-2022), 5 hazard types, and 19 economic sectors. Our descriptive analysis reveals low but increasing adaptation investments across Europe (0.15-0.92% of national gross domestic product, annually increasing by 30.6-37.4%). Moreover, we highlight considerable differences in adaptation intensity across sectors, including low adaptation intensity in manufacturing and retail trade. Additionally, our econometric analysis indicates that public adaptation spending crowds in private investments in adaptation, highlighting opportunities to facilitate autonomous adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid40537584, year = {2025}, author = {Murendo, C}, title = {Exposure to pollution and climate change-induced food insecurity on depressive symptoms among adolescents in rural areas of Afghanistan.}, journal = {Discover mental health}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {92}, pmid = {40537584}, issn = {2731-4383}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Research into how pollution and climate change-induced food insecurity affect adolescents' mental health in Afghanistan is still in its infancy. This study analyses the association between pollution exposure, climate change-induced food insecurity and, depressive symptoms among adolescents in Afghanistan.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 1416 adolescents and their 1416 parents and/or caregivers in seven provinces of Afghanistan. Exposure to pollution and climate change-induced food insecurity are the explanatory variables of interest. Mental health was measured by the occurrence of depression. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used for estimation.<br><br>RESULTS: The multivariate logistic regression results revealed that adolescents exposed to pollution were 2.66 times more likely to exhibit depressive symptoms (OR&#x2009;=&#x2009;2.66; p < 0.001), and the effects were significant for both boys and girls. Adolescents experiencing climate change (drought and floods) induced food insecurity were 1.39 times more likely to exhibit depressive symptoms (OR&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.30; p < 0.05). In addition, the study found that the effects of drought and flood induced food insecurity on mental health were pronounced among girls than boys.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Exposure to pollution and climate change-induced food insecurity were associated with depressive symptoms among adolescents. The public, private sector, and international organizations should promote pollution, drought, and flood mitigation strategies, as these environmental factors may contribute to mental health challenges among adolescents. There is need for interventions that specifically target female adolescents given their vulnerabilities to climate change-induced food insecurity. There is scope to integrate mental health services, with food security, pollution and climate mitigation interventions in Afghanistan. Policymakers should focus on regular community-based mental health screening programs, training local mental health professionals, and educating adolescents about the symptoms of depression.}, }
@article {pmid40536594, year = {2025}, author = {Piyasena, NMPM and Bandara, SMGL}, title = {Utilizing geospatial tools for assessing climate change vulnerability: a case study of the Ratnapura District, Sri Lanka.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {7}, pages = {774}, pmid = {40536594}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Sri Lanka ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Floods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Droughts/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Landslides/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Risk Assessment/methods ; }, abstract = {This study utilizes geospatial tools to assess the climate change vulnerability of the Ratnapura District, Sri Lanka, by examining three key dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Ratnapura is particularly prone to climate-related hazards, such as floods, landslides, and droughts, which pose significant threats to its socio-economic stability and environmental health. The assessment employs historical climate data and geographic information to develop exposure maps, while sensitivity is evaluated through an analysis of socio-economic and environmental conditions. Adaptive capacity is measured by examining local institutional frameworks and resource availability. The findings reveal high vulnerability levels, particularly in the Ratnapura and Kalawana Divisional Secretariat (DS) divisions, highlighting the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of geospatial analysis tools in conducting comprehensive climate vulnerability assessments, providing valuable insights for developing climate-sensitive policies, and enhancing disaster risk reduction efforts. The results offer a foundation for local and regional authorities to implement proactive measures to build resilience against climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid40536528, year = {2025}, author = {Liang, L and Chao, Y and Wang, X and Li, J and Ma, P}, title = {Seasonal climate change characteristics of the Mu Us Sandy Land based on long time scale.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {7}, pages = {771}, pmid = {40536528}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {2023JCYB449//General project of Shaanxi Provincial Department of Science and Technology/ ; YDBK2017-19//Yan'an University Project/ ; 2023SLJBZ002//Yan'an Science and Technology Bureau's List System Project/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Desert Climate ; }, abstract = {The study of seasonal-scale climate-vegetation coupling mechanisms is important for coordinating desertification control and climate adaptation. Taking the Mu Us Sandy Land (MUSL) as a case study, we gathered meteorological data from 1959 to 2019 (including maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) for seasonal analysis. We conducted M-K significance and mutation analysis, Morlet wavelet periodicity analysis and correlation analysis and investigated the effects of various seasonal and annual climate factors on NDVI using NDVI values collected from 1999 to 2019. The results indicate the following: (1) Both the maximum and minimum temperatures in the MUSL exhibit an upward trend across all four seasons. Precipitation in autumn shows a decreasing trend, while in spring, summer, and winter, it increases, leading to an overall rise in precipitation. (2) The maximum and minimum temperatures in MUSL experienced a mutation in the 1980 and 2000, respectively, while precipitation underwent a mutation in the 1980 and 2019. After these mutations, both temperature and precipitation exhibited an overall upward trend. (3) The first primary cycle for both the maximum and minimum temperatures is 18 years, while the first primary cycle for precipitation is 8 years. (4) The impact of the climate in MUSL on vegetation is as follows: precipitation > temperature.}, }
@article {pmid40536515, year = {2025}, author = {Akorli, R and Antwi-Agyei, P and Davies, P and Damsere-Derry, J and Baffour-Ata, F and Nakua, E and Donkor, P and Mock, C}, title = {The impact of climate change on road traffic crashes in Ghana.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40536515}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {D43 TW007267/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Despite the substantial injuries and fatalities from Road Traffic Crashes (RTCs), evidence of climate change's impact on RTCs in Ghana is lacking. This study assessed the impact of climate change on RTCs in Ghana by combining quantitative (Mann-Kendall trend tests, Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis, causal inference analysis) and qualitative (15 key stakeholder interviews) methods. The quantitative analysis employed monthly rainfall and temperature data (1991-2021) alongside RTC data (1998-2021) across 10 regions. While rainfall trends varied regionally, the wet season (April through mid-October) showed a strong link to crash severity for all regions across Ghana. Wavelet analysis showed higher crash severity in the wet season within every 2-8 months period in a particular annual year during the study period. Causal inference analysis revealed rainfall's stronger influence (3.59%) on fatal crashes during the wet season compared to temperature (0.04%). Key stakeholder interviews highlighted perceived changes in temperature and intense rainfall patterns affecting RTCs, especially during rainy seasons suggesting an association between increased rainfall and crash severity. These findings emphasize the multifaceted role of climate change on road safety and the need to address weather-specific risks.}, }
@article {pmid40535792, year = {2025}, author = {Chau, PH and Yu, TLT and Hu, Y and Palmeiro Silva, YK and Gilder, E and Cole, M and Ngunyulu, R and Lin, CC}, title = {Preparedness of nurses for climate change: questionnaire development and preliminary validation.}, journal = {International journal of nursing studies advances}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {100337}, pmid = {40535792}, issn = {2666-142X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Nurses are well-positioned to lead climate action efforts. There are several tools currently available for measuring nurses' awareness, attitudes and practices regarding climate change. While each of these existing tools provides valuable insights into nurses' awareness, attitudes, and practices regarding climate change, none of them address preparedness in taking actions in the near future, which is important to inform strategies for motivating climate change actions targeting nurses.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To describe the development and validation an instrument, provides a means to measure nurses internationally regarding their self-perceived engagement (achievement and preparedness), as well as their awareness and attitudes towards climate change.<br><br>METHODS: A self-administered structured questionnaire for a cross-sectional multinational survey was developed. The 2018 International Council of Nursing (ICN)'s Position Statement on Nurses, Climate Change and Health was used to guide the achievement and preparedness of climate change actions. An expert panel of six nursing scholars rated the content validity. Scale-level and item-level Content Validity Index (S-CVI and I-CVI) were calculated. Based on the first 509 responses from the survey, internal consistency was assessed by Cronbach's alpha, convergent validity by correlation analyses, and structural validity was assessed by exploratory factor analysis.<br><br>FINDINGS: The I-CVI of the final version was above 0.83 for all items except one. The S-CVI was 0.96. The internal consistency assessed by Cronbach's alpha was 0.943. All constructs were significantly positively associated with each other. Eight factors were identified by exploratory factor analysis, which structurally largely agree with the different parts of the questionnaire.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The instrument is valid and reliable for assessing nurses' preparedness for climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40535598, year = {2025}, author = {Fitzhugh, MH and Wang, J and Powers, JG}, title = {Climate change and rural populations in dermatology: an intersection requiring further exploration.}, journal = {International journal of women's dermatology}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {e214}, pmid = {40535598}, issn = {2352-6475}, }
@article {pmid40535095, year = {2025}, author = {Wong, A and Hoang, TH and Ferrara, V and Nguyen, TH}, title = {How Systemic Barriers Can Impact Health Inequities When Facing Climate Change Stressors: A Scoping Review of Global Differences.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e2024GH001272}, pmid = {40535095}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {The objective of this scoping review is to explore the systemic barriers that impact health inequities among vulnerable populations (e.g., racial/ethnic and gender groups, people with disabilities, refugees, immigrants, elders, young children, agricultural and fishery workers, and low-income individuals) when facing climate change stressors. We conducted an extensive review using nine search engines, which yielded 21 publications that focused on the health outcomes and barriers on the topic of climate change among vulnerable populations. Our findings indicated that poverty is the largest challenge preventing people from adequate health access and achieving positive outcomes, particularly for vulnerable populations globally. In addition, institutional and systemic barriers also differ based on regional differences, which suggests that health inequities are context dependent. Our scoping review has implications for (a) enhancing the effectiveness of climate change mitigation strategies and (b) addressing the healthcare barriers of vulnerable populations based on country-specific challenges.}, }
@article {pmid40533693, year = {2025}, author = {Gechelu, GF and Shoro, KE and Baisa, SM and Tullu, KT and Irena, BT and Urga, JB}, title = {Evaluating climate change impacts on future crop and irrigation water requirements in Gojeb river catchment, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {7}, pages = {765}, pmid = {40533693}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ethiopia ; *Agricultural Irrigation/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Rivers/chemistry ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {This study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on future crop and irrigation water requirements in the Gojeb River catchment. Crop water requirements (CWR) and irrigation water requirements (IWR) for Shabe, Jimma, Dedo, and Bonga stations for maize, sorghum, barley, and wheat were assessed for the near future (2025-2060) and far future (2061-2096). RACMO22T, REMO2009, RCA4, and CCLM4.8 regional climate models (RCMs) were used, considering both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Climatic factors, such as precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures, and potential evapotranspiration (ETO), were used to evaluate future CWR and IWR. The Hargreaves-Samani equation was utilized to estimate ETo in the R programming. The results of the analysis indicate that at the base period and future projections under the RCP 4.5, maize consistently has the highest CWR and IWR at all stations, while barley requires less water. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the CWR for maize, sorghum, barley, and wheat is projected to increase at all stations in the near and far future. Similarly, in RCP 8.5, crop water needs increased across all stations. On the other hand, the study calculated IWR for maize, sorghum, barley, and wheat under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, showing an increase in water needs for all crops in both the near and far future at all stations. The projected CWR and IWR values under RCP 8.5 are greater than those under RCP 4.5 at every station. The study can serve as benchmark information for future research and guide watershed managers and environmentalists in considering the impacts of climate change on surface water availability and irrigation requirements in the Gojeb River catchment.}, }
@article {pmid40533601, year = {2025}, author = {Simon, J and Ibanga, EA and Inyang, EP and Kama, HG and Momoh, KO and Bello, S and Yisa, AG}, title = {Assessment of heavy metal pollution from flooded rice farms in Hadejia LGA of Jigawa State Nigeria: an impact of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {7}, pages = {764}, pmid = {40533601}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Metals, Heavy/analysis ; Farms ; Floods ; *Oryza/chemistry ; *Soil Pollutants/analysis ; Nigeria ; Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {This study assessed heavy metal contamination in flooded rice farmlands of Hadejia Local Government Area, Jigawa State, Nigeria, with the aim of investigating the impact of perennial flooding on metal accumulation in soils and rice grains. The research addresses a significant data gap in environmental and public health surveillance within the region. A total of 50 surface soil and 50 rice grain samples were collected and analyzed using microwave plasma-atomic emission spectroscopy (MP-AES), validated by atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS), to determine the concentrations of Zn, Cd, Fe, Cu, Ni, As, Pb, Mn, and Cr. Due to non-normal data distribution, median values were used for the analysis. While most heavy metals were within the permissible limits, arsenic (As) exceeded its maximum allowable concentration (MAC) in soil by 77.5% and surpassed its weekly tolerable intake limit in rice by four orders of magnitude, posing a significant health risk. The contamination was attributed to mine tailings, abandoned pits, agricultural residues, and industrial discharges from nearby regions. Pollution indices indicated particularly high risks from Cd and As. The study recommends detailed geochemical mapping to trace arsenic sources and the adoption of low-arsenic-absorbing rice varieties to reduce dietary exposure and enhance food safety.}, }
@article {pmid40533541, year = {2025}, author = {Hultgren, A and Carleton, T and Delgado, M and Gergel, DR and Greenstone, M and Houser, T and Hsiang, S and Jina, A and Kopp, RE and Malevich, SB and McCusker, KE and Mayer, T and Nath, I and Rising, J and Rode, A and Yuan, J}, title = {Impacts of climate change on global agriculture accounting for adaptation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {642}, number = {8068}, pages = {644-652}, pmid = {40533541}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Agriculture/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crop Production/statistics &amp; numerical data/economics ; *Crops, Agricultural/economics/supply &amp; distribution/growth &amp; development ; Food Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data/economics ; Income ; Internationality ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens global food systems[1], but the extent to which adaptation will reduce losses remains unknown and controversial[2]. Even within the well-studied context of US agriculture, some analyses argue that adaptation will be widespread and climate damages small[3,4], whereas others conclude that adaptation will be limited and losses severe[5,6]. Scenario-based analyses indicate that adaptation should have notable consequences on global agricultural productivity[7-9], but there has been no systematic study of how extensively real-world producers actually adapt at the global scale. Here we empirically estimate the impact of global producer adaptations using longitudinal data on six staple crops spanning 12,658 regions, capturing two-thirds of global crop calories. We estimate that global production declines 5.5 × 10[14] kcal annually per 1 °C global mean surface temperature (GMST) rise (120 kcal per person per day or 4.4% of recommended consumption per 1 °C; P < 0.001). We project that adaptation and income growth alleviate 23% of global losses in 2050 and 34% at the end of the century (6% and 12%, respectively; moderate-emissions scenario), but substantial residual losses remain for all staples except rice. In contrast to analyses of other outcomes that project the greatest damages to the global poor[10,11], we find that global impacts are dominated by losses to modern-day breadbaskets with favourable climates and limited present adaptation, although losses in low-income regions losses are also substantial. These results indicate a scale of innovation, cropland expansion or further adaptation that might be necessary to ensure food security in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid40531122, year = {2025}, author = {Coronado-Vázquez, V and Gómez-Salgado, J}, title = {Health professionals face up to climate change: from commitment to action.}, journal = {Emergencias : revista de la Sociedad Espanola de Medicina de Emergencias}, volume = {37}, number = {3}, pages = {226-227}, doi = {10.55633/s3me/087.2024}, pmid = {40531122}, issn = {2386-5857}, }
@article {pmid40530500, year = {2025}, author = {McLaughlin, BC and Kling, MM and Jackson, ST and Zavaleta, ES and Ackerly, DD}, title = {Sustaining Species of the Future: Climatic Nuclei for Climate Change Adaptation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {e70253}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.70253}, pmid = {40530500}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; *Refugium ; Endangered Species ; Animals ; }, abstract = {Conservation of climatic refugia, or locations that will buffer vulnerable species from the effects of climate change, has recently emerged as a prominent climate adaptation strategy. Here, we introduce an important and complementary concept, 'climatic nuclei'-locations that harbor populations of species that are expected to expand under future conditions-which has so far received little attention. While the climatic refugia concept focuses on threatened species, the climatic nuclei concept focuses on species that are projected to expand with climate change to help create the functional, diverse, and locally unique ecosystems of the future. We evaluate where climatic nuclei are expected to occur; draw on lessons from the paleoecological and modern ecological literature to better understand how climatic nuclei could function; explore the concept's application to land stewardship and conservation; and provide suggestions for future research.}, }
@article {pmid40530262, year = {2025}, author = {Xu, J and Zhao, Y and Wang, C and Yan, Y and Wen, Y}, title = {From current to future projections: modeling habitat suitability changes for Hibiscus syriacus L. in China using MaxEnt under climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1551684}, pmid = {40530262}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Hibiscus syriacus L. (Malvaceae) is widely cultivated for its ornamental value and diverse applications in food, medicine, and textiles. Despite its extensive use, the key environmental factors and geographic patterns influencing its habitat suitability remain poorly understood. We applied the MaxEnt model to assess the current and projected future distribution of H. syriacus using 185 occurrence records and 20 environmental variables. Results showed that the current suitable habitat area covered 188.81 × 10[4] km[2]. Temperature and precipitation played a crucial role in shaping the present geographical distribution of H. syriacus populations. Projections indicated that by the 2050s, the total suitable habitat area would expand, with the SSP585 scenario demonstrating the most substantial increase. However, a general decline was expected by the 2070s. The potential distribution, primarily concentrated in Hunan Province, was projected to shift southwestward. Migration patterns and habitat changes were primarily driven by substantial variations in temperature and precipitation. These findings highlight the impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of H. syriacus and offer a scientific basis for determining planting zones and strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40528884, year = {2025}, author = {Zhao, Z and Yang, W and Hua, P and Krebs, P and Zhang, J}, title = {Deicing salt exacerbates freshwater salinization under climate change and human activities.}, journal = {Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {100862}, pmid = {40528884}, issn = {2666-6758}, }
@article {pmid40528764, year = {2025}, author = {Naylor, R and Shaw, E}, title = {Atmospheres of influence: the role of journal editors in shaping early climate change narratives - ERRATUM.}, journal = {British journal for the history of science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1017/S0007087425000408}, pmid = {40528764}, issn = {1474-001X}, }
@article {pmid40528665, year = {2025}, author = {Roberge, M and Diallo, T and Bérubé, A and Audate, PP and Leblanc, N}, title = {Climate Change Integration in Nursing Academic Curricula and Continuing Education: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {The Canadian journal of nursing research = Revue canadienne de recherche en sciences infirmieres}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {8445621251341646}, doi = {10.1177/08445621251341646}, pmid = {40528665}, issn = {1705-7051}, abstract = {Background and PurposeThe consequences of climate change on individuals' and communities' health are numerous. Nurses are among the healthcare professionals most confronted with the climate crisis, and have great potential to limit its impact on vulnerable populations. However, our knowledge of educational options for preparing nurses to address climate change remains limited. The aim of this scoping review was to examine how climate change is integrated into the academic curricula or continuing education of nurses.Methods and ProceduresArksey and O'Malley's (2005) framework was used to conduct this scoping review. Documentary search strategies were developed and tested in four databases, and a search of the grey literature was carried out. A two-stage selection process was implemented. Data from 16 scientific articles were extracted and 11 grey literature references were included in the analyses. A narrative summary allowed to synthesize the findings.ResultsAcademic and healthcare organizations are increasingly implementing innovative and participatory educational initiatives to raise nurses' awareness of climate change's health impacts and encourage students and nurses to act in their daily lives and clinical practice. Challenges include a dense curriculum, the absence of a climate competency framework, and theoretical content being presented in an unstimulating manner.ConclusionsThe use of innovative, interactive teaching methods, reference to a theoretical model centered on planetary health, and climate change content distributed throughout the curriculum are some ways to stimulate students' interest in climate issues. Collaborative efforts involving academia and organizations are needed to foster nurses' awareness and encourage a variety of climate-oriented actions with planetary reach.}, }
@article {pmid40528510, year = {2025}, author = {Levine, RL and Verzuh, TL and Mathewson, PD and Porter, WP and Kroger, B and Monteith, KL}, title = {Sex-specific trade-offs influence thermoregulation under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {106}, number = {6}, pages = {e70138}, pmid = {40528510}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {003292//Wyoming Governor's Big Game License Coalition/ ; 004549//Wyoming Governor's Big Game License Coalition/ ; //Wyoming Game and Fish Department/ ; //M. Newhouse/ ; 1005065D//UW-NPS Research Station/ ; //M. and C. Rumsey/ ; //A. Young/ ; //J. Nielson/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; *Body Temperature Regulation/physiology ; *Deer/physiology ; Reproduction ; Sex Factors ; }, abstract = {Increasingly, climate change is pushing species to the limits of their thermal tolerance, with cascading effects across ecosystems. Animals use behavior to prevent these harmful physiological states, but their need and ability to do so varies with their traits. Within species, traits such as sex and reproductive status affect heat sensitivity, perhaps eliciting differences in behavioral responses to thermal extremes. We evaluated whether sex and reproductive status affected thermoregulatory behavior and its efficacy in moose (Alces alces), a heat-sensitive endotherm that relies on thermal refuge. We expected traits associated with elevated heat load would be linked to heightened selection for thermal refuge and that differences in selection would successfully alleviate differing risks of overheating. Thus, reproductive females and males, who are more heat-sensitive, would have stronger selection for thermal refuge than non-reproductive females. We assessed selection of thermal refuge at bed sites and generated biophysical models to evaluate if selection mitigated risk of overheating. Reproductive status did not elicit differences in selection by females. The sexes, however, differed in selection of the trade-off between solar cover and cooling from wind. Females selected refuge with canopy cover and avoided wind. Males did not select cover and had weaker avoidance of wind than females. Yet, both sexes were more likely to overheat in areas of low cover, even if wind speeds were high. Hence, males had weaker selection of refuge than females despite being more likely to overheat, and life history trade-offs failed to explain the sub-optimal thermoregulatory behavior. We identify sex-specific thermoregulatory trade-offs, highlighting the disproportionate effects of climate change on certain demographic groups. Moreover, we emphasize the relevance of trait-based approaches for studying changing ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid40528155, year = {2025}, author = {Attia, NM and Hamed, AEM and Elbakry, MAAE and Barakat, AM and Mohamed, HS}, title = {Navigating sustainable practice: environmental awareness and climate change as mediators of green competence of nurses.}, journal = {BMC nursing}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {658}, pmid = {40528155}, issn = {1472-6955}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The sustainability of biological, social, and economic systems is essential to safeguarding our collective future and maintaining a balanced relationship between humans and the natural environment. Addressing environmental concerns requires the active involvement of all societal sectors, integrating sustainability awareness into everyday practices and business processes through optimal technology use. This study aims to examine the mediating role of climate change and environmental awareness in the relationship between sustainable practices and green competence among nurses.<br><br>SUBJECT AND METHODS: A random sample of 230 nurses was selected from Al-Ahrar Teaching Hospital in Zagazig, Egypt. A descriptive correlational design was used. Five validated instruments were used to assess sociodemographic characteristics, green competence, nurses' perceptions of climate change, environmental awareness, and sustainable development behaviors.<br><br>RESULTS: The results of the current study show that green competence was significantly and positively correlated to nurses' sustainable practice, environmental awareness and climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Environmental awareness and climate change were mediated of relationship between sustainable practice and green competence.<br><br>The findings of this study have significant implications for nursing management and the broader healthcare sector. By elucidating the relationships among green competence, nurses' sustainable practices, environmental awareness, and climate change, this research offers actionable insights for healthcare leaders. Nursing managers can enhance workplace safety and environmental responsibility by supporting green management systems and implementing ongoing green management programs to improve nurses' knowledge and attitudes toward sustainability. Furthermore, healthcare facilities should be encouraged to adopt environmental awareness and green management practices to address climate change and foster sustainable practices across the healthcare workforce.<br><br>CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.}, }
@article {pmid40527932, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, YR and Wen, S and Singh, BK and Zhang, W and Liu, Z and Hao, X and Hao, YY and Delgado-Baquerizo, M and Tan, W and Huang, Q and Rillig, MC and Zhu, YG}, title = {Vulnerability of soil food webs to chemical pollution and climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40527932}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {42425701//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Soil food webs are critical for maintaining ecosystem functions but are challenged by various stressors including climate change, habitat destruction and pollution. Although complex multitrophic networks can, in theory, buffer environmental stress, the effects of anthropogenic chemicals on soil food webs under climate change remain poorly understood. Here we propose that the effects of chemical pollution on soil communities have been largely underestimated, particularly for climate change-affected ecosystems. We explore the interactive effects of environmental stressors on soil food webs and the importance of integrating chemical pollution impacts into assessing soil food web stability. We also discuss a conceptual framework involving microbiome manipulation, community compensatory dynamics and interaction modulation to mitigate the combined effects of chemical pollution and climate change on soil food webs.}, }
@article {pmid40527633, year = {2025}, author = {Dorigatti, I and Gaythorpe, KAM and Cox, VM and Windram, FA and Cator, L}, title = {Priorities for modelling arbovirus transmission under climate change.}, journal = {Trends in molecular medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.molmed.2025.05.010}, pmid = {40527633}, issn = {1471-499X}, abstract = {The transmission potential of arboviruses is extremely sensitive to environmental conditions. This sensitivity is due to both their intimate relationship with ectothermic vectors and, in many cases, also to the involvement of multiple host species in zoonotic transmission cycles. Here, we review how climate change will alter the transmission ecology and risk of these important infections. The challenge of predicting how climate change will impact these systems is daunting, but the need for tools to manage arbovirus risk under climate change is urgent and imperative. We argue that the development of climate-driven mechanistic models of disease transmission informed by empirical surveillance data is urgently needed to inform future responses and for generating the evidence that policy needs to tackle this global public health risk.}, }
@article {pmid40526750, year = {2025}, author = {Booth, A and Blake, D and Breheny, M}, title = {Who's responsible? A media framing analysis of climate change and meat reduction in Aotearoa New Zealand.}, journal = {Health promotion international}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/heapro/daaf065}, pmid = {40526750}, issn = {1460-2245}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; New Zealand ; Humans ; *Mass Media ; *Meat ; Politics ; *Social Responsibility ; }, abstract = {Addressing climate change requires urgent and impactful action. This includes reducing consumption of red meat for people living in high-income countries. This article seeks to understand the role that media play in the construction of arguments about meat reduction. A framing analysis of 58 news media stories from Aotearoa New Zealand (herein Aotearoa) examines how arguments about meat reduction are made persuasive. It was found that within Aotearoa media, responsibility was mainly framed in terms of 'individual responsibility'; this served to limit understanding of how to mobilize collective action and hold powerful groups to account. Aggregated individual choices were instead given the power to influence political action. 'Collective responsibility' and 'political responsibility' frames were also present; these recognized government inaction and the political and economic challenges of meat. In these frames, citizens were encouraged to undertake civil action against political inaction. While individual responsibility is important, individual action alone is insufficient in the face of the increasing climate crisis. The individual actions of many do not replace political and corporate actions that have the potential to reduce emissions and advance climate justice.}, }
@article {pmid40526598, year = {2025}, author = {Al-Kindi, KM and Al-Lawati, AH}, title = {Climate change and its impact on wheat distribution in semi-arid ecosystems: A case study from the Sultanate of Oman.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {e0326198}, pmid = {40526598}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Triticum/growth &amp; development ; Oman ; *Ecosystem ; Agriculture ; Temperature ; Crops, Agricultural ; }, abstract = {Climate change, characterised by long-term shifts in temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events, poses significant challenges to agricultural sustainability. This study aims to mitigate the impact of climate change on wheat production in Oman by identifying optimal cultivation areas for four temporal periods. Utilising the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, the study assessed the suitability of wheat cultivation across four periods: 1970-2020 (reference period), 2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The model considered environmental variables, such as temperature and precipitation, to predict wheat distribution for the present and future climate scenarios. The MaxEnt model demonstrated robust predictive performance, with area under curve (AUC) scores consistently above 0.8 across all periods. The model achieved an AUC of 0.82 for the reference period (1970-2020) and accurately identified the regions suitable for wheat cultivation. The AUC for the immediate future (2021-2040) decreased marginally to 0.81, reflecting potential shifts in environmental conditions that might influence wheat distribution, and returned to 0.82 for the 2041-2060 period, indicating the model's resilience in predicting wheat suitability despite the projected climate change impacts. Notably, the AUC increased to 0.83 for the 2061-2080 period, suggesting that wheat distribution patterns might become more distinct under future climate scenarios or that the environmental variables driving the model gain greater significance as climate change intensifies. These results highlight the effectiveness of the MaxEnt model in identifying suitable wheat cultivation areas in varying climate conditions. The results provide critical insights into Oman's long-term agricultural planning and sustainable practices. Given the historical wheat cultivation in different regions of Oman, it is crucial to identify optimal areas for future production under climate change to ensure food security and support strategic decision-making. This study emphasises the importance of integrating predictive modelling into agricultural planning and calls for further research to refine strategies for climate-resilient wheat production.}, }
@article {pmid40523909, year = {2025}, author = {Lechat, B and Manners, J and Pinilla, L and Reynolds, AC and Scott, H and Vena, D and Bailly, S and Fitton, J and Toson, B and Kaambwa, B and Adams, RJ and Pepin, JL and Escourrou, P and Catcheside, P and Eckert, DJ}, title = {Global warming may increase the burden of obstructive sleep apnea.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {5100}, pmid = {40523909}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {2025886//Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC)/ ; 1196261//Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC)/ ; }, mesh = {*Sleep Apnea, Obstructive/epidemiology/economics/etiology/physiopathology ; Humans ; *Global Warming ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Prevalence ; Cost of Illness ; Aged ; }, abstract = {High ambient temperatures are associated with reduced sleep duration and quality, but effects on obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity are unknown. Here we quantify the effect of 24 h ambient temperature on nightly OSA severity in 116,620 users of a Food and Drug Administration-cleared nearable over 3.5 years. Wellbeing and productivity OSA burden for different levels of global warming were estimated. Globally, higher temperatures (99[th] vs. 25[th]; 27.3 vs. 6.4 °C) were associated with a 45% higher probability of having OSA on a given night (mean [95% confidence interval]; 1.45 [1.44, 1.47]). Warming-related increase in OSA prevalence in 2023 was estimated to be associated with a loss of 788,198 (489,226, 1,087,170) healthy life years (in 29 countries), and a workplace productivity loss of 30 (21 to 40) billion United States dollars. Scenarios with projected temperatures ≥1.8 °C above pre-industrial levels would incur a further 1.2 to 3-fold increase in OSA burden by 2100.}, }
@article {pmid40522469, year = {2025}, author = {Penger, S and Conrad, K}, title = {[Maintaining mobility of older people in urban areas in the face of climate change : Empirical findings on perceived heat stress and potential adaptive behavior].}, journal = {Zeitschrift fur Gerontologie und Geriatrie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40522469}, issn = {1435-1269}, abstract = {Urban areas face complex challenges, such as climate change, environmental stressors, urbanization and demographic change. Vulnerable individuals, including older people are particularly affected. In old age health risks increase during heat periods due to multiple burdens resulting from dynamic person-environment interactions. How differently older adults perceive extreme heat and the behavioral adaptations they make in response were investigated in a field study conducted in Stuttgart. The aim of the present work was to form segments using cluster analyses that clearly differed in terms of heat stress levels and independent daily living outside the home. The sample included 211 community dwelling individuals (57% female) aged 65-92 years. Data collection was conducted through personal, standardized interviews. Of the four clusters identified one exhibited an accumulation of vulnerability factors, manifesting in particularly high perception of heat stress, impaired independence in daily life and a greater reduction in outdoor activities during heat compared to the other clusters. While the latter could provide protection from heat-related effects, it also poses risks of supply shortages and reduced social participation during heatwaves. Such segmentation beyond chronological age highlights the need for targeted heat protection and prevention measures, which are addressed in municipal heat action plans. Although the development of such plans has already progressed in Germany, the proposed measures must be implemented on a broader and cross-sectoral basis to strengthen health equity for all.}, }
@article {pmid40521784, year = {2025}, author = {Braun, CB and Rasmussen, SA and Jamieson, DJ}, title = {Climate Change and Pregnancy Outcomes: A Systematic Approach to Reviewing the Data.}, journal = {Birth defects research}, volume = {117}, number = {6}, pages = {e2493}, doi = {10.1002/bdr2.2493}, pmid = {40521784}, issn = {2472-1727}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Female ; Pregnancy ; *Pregnancy Outcome/epidemiology ; Infant, Newborn ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence is accumulating regarding the effects of climate change on human health. In 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) identified six exposure pathways through which climate change might affect health: extreme weather events; heat stress; air quality; food safety and security; water quality and quantity; and vector distribution and ecology. We sought to evaluate the climate change-related effects through these pathways on the health of pregnant persons and neonates.<br><br>METHODS: Individual PubMed searches were tailored for each WHO climate change exposure pathway based on the quality and quantity of evidence. Searches for heat stress, air quality, food safety and security, and vector distribution and ecology included systematic reviews only, while those for the remaining exposure pathways included broader quantitative study parameters.<br><br>RESULTS: Evidence links heat stress, air quality, and vector distribution and ecology to several adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. While evidence regarding extreme weather events, food safety and security, and water quality and quantity also shows harmful effects on pregnant persons and neonates, the data are less conclusive.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change-related effects detrimentally affect the health of pregnant persons and neonates, but additional research is required to improve understanding of how climate change exerts its effects on these populations.}, }
@article {pmid40521501, year = {2025}, author = {Yang, Z and Yang, S and Wang, X and Xiao, J and Wang, H}, title = {Prediction of Global Warming Potential for Gases Based on Group Contribution Method and Chemical Activity Descriptor.}, journal = {ACS omega}, volume = {10}, number = {22}, pages = {22508-22520}, pmid = {40521501}, issn = {2470-1343}, abstract = {To assess the environmental performance of SF6 substitute gases, it is essential to develop a predictive model for the global warming potential. In this study, 165 molecules are first selected to construct machine learning models using group contribution method. The predictive performance of various models is analyzed, including Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Trees, and Support Vector Machines. Then 58 chemical activity descriptors are calculated using the M06-2X method and def2-TZVP basis, and the key descriptors are identified through Pearson correlation coefficient. These descriptors are used to build several machine learning models. The performance of these models constructed by the two approaches is compared. The result indicates that the descriptor-based models outperform the group-based models, with the descriptor-based Random Forest model achieving the best performance. The R [2] of test set reached 0.82, with an MSE of 0.015, an RMSE of 0.024, and an MAE of 0.09. Moreover, the descriptor-based model demonstrated higher stability and robustness across 1000 training iterations.}, }
@article {pmid40521404, year = {2025}, author = {Omokaro, GO}, title = {Multi-impacts of climate change and mitigation strategies in Nigeria: agricultural production and food security.}, journal = {Science in One Health}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {100113}, pmid = {40521404}, issn = {2949-7043}, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to Nigeria's agricultural sector, which is a cornerstone of its economy and food security. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, erratic rainfall patterns, and rising temperatures have disrupted agricultural productivity, threatening the livelihoods of millions of Nigerians. Through a comprehensive literature review, synthesizing data from peer-reviewed journals, institutional reports, and credible online sources from 2000 to 2023, this study aims to explore the multi-faceted impacts of climate variability on agricultural production, livestock, fisheries, and food security in Nigeria, and to identify effective adaptation strategies to mitigate these impacts. The findings reveal that climate change has significantly disrupted agricultural productivity in Nigeria, with erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and extreme weather events leading to reduced crop yields, increased pest and disease pressure, and land degradation. Vulnerable crops such as maize, cassava, and rice are particularly affected, while livestock production faces challenges such as heat stress and reduced feed availability. The fisheries sector is also impacted, with shrinking water resources and increasing contamination levels threatening livelihoods. Adaptation strategies, including crop diversification, improved irrigation, and indigenous knowledge practices, offer some resilience but require substantial policy and financial support. The study highlights the urgency of implementing climate-smart agricultural practices, enhancing infrastructure, and promoting public-private partnerships to mitigate climate-induced risks. Recommendations align with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2 (Zero Hunger), 13 (Climate Action), and 15 (Life on Land), emphasizing the need for sustainable agricultural practices, ecosystem preservation, and adaptive policy frameworks to ensure food security and economic stability in Nigeria. This study provides valuable insights into the impacts of climate change on Nigeria's agricultural sector and offers practical recommendations for building resilience and ensuring sustainable food systems. It reveals the importance of collaborative efforts at all levels to address the challenges posed by climate change and safeguard the nation's agricultural heritage for future generations.}, }
@article {pmid40520301, year = {2025}, author = {Ogony, J and Mangeni, J and Ayodo, G and Amulen, E and Scopas, F and Juma, T and Wagaba, M and Mwaka, AD and Nwanja, L and Princewill, S and Oyugi, B and Yongo, A and Rakotosolofo, S and Francioli, A and Mugamu, E and Davies, J and Karanja, S and Hannah, C}, title = {The stifling burden of climate change on African public healthcare systems.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1559737}, pmid = {40520301}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Africa ; *Delivery of Health Care/organization &amp; administration ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is the greatest health threat of the 21st century to global health and primary health care. Despite being the least contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, Africa is disproportionately facing severe impacts of climate change, particularly on its health systems which is already neglected and underfunded. The crisis poses a fundamental threat to human health by undermining healthcare infrastructure, straining workforce capacity, and diminishing global progress toward universal health coverage. It disrupts the physical environment, natural and human systems, and the functionality of healthcare systems, acting as a multiplier threat that jeopardizes and potentially reverses decades of health gains. The Sendai Framework, a roadmap for making vulnerable and marginalized communities safer and more resilient emphasizes the importance of investing in disaster risk prevention and reduction through both structural and non-structural measures, which are vital for enhancing socio-economic, health, and cultural resilience. This narrative review is based on the insights drawn from Climate Adaptation Research Program scholars across Africa. It explores the current and projected burden of climate change on the continent's healthcare systems. It underscores the urgent need to integrate climate resilience into healthcare planning, fostering cross-sectoral collaboration, and ensures the sustainability of health systems amid escalating climate challenges.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The impacts of climate change on health represent a significant global challenge, demanding the establishment of robust and resilient healthcare systems. To mitigate the catastrophic and lasting effects of the climate crisis on healthcare and to prevent millions of climate-related deaths, it is essential to enhance resilience and preparedness.}, }
@article {pmid40519048, year = {2025}, author = {Rintz, CL and Koubbi, P and Ramiro-Sánchez, B and Azarian, C and Caccavo, JA and Cotté, C and Goberville, E and Godet, C and Hulley, PA and Le Goff, R and Leprieur, F and Robuchon, M and Serandour, B and Leroy, B}, title = {Biogeographical Regions and Climate Change: Lanternfishes Shed Light on the Role of Climatic Barriers in the Southern Ocean.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {e70256}, pmid = {40519048}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Oceans and Seas ; Biodiversity ; *Animal Distribution ; *Fishes/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {To predict the spatial responses of biodiversity to climate change, studies typically rely on species-specific approaches, such as species distribution models. In this study, we propose an alternative methodology that investigates the collective response of species groups by modelling biogeographical regions. Biogeographical regions are areas defined by homogeneous species compositions and separated by barriers to dispersal. When climate acts as such a barrier, species within the same region are expected to respond similar to changing climatic conditions, enabling the prediction of entire region shifts in response to future climate scenarios. We applied this approach to the Southern Ocean, which exhibits sharp climatic transitions known as oceanic fronts, focusing on the mesopelagic lanternfishes (family Myctophidae). We compiled occurrence data for 115 lanternfish species from 1950 onwards and employed a network-based analysis to identify two major biogeographical regions: a southern and a subtropical region. These regions were found to be distinct, with minimal overlap in species distributions along the temperature gradient and a separation around 8°C, indicating that temperature likely acts as a climatic barrier. Using an ensemble modelling approach, we projected the response of these regions to future temperature changes under various climate scenarios. Our results suggest a circumpolar expansion of the subtropical region and a contraction of the southern region, with the Southern Ocean becoming a cul-de-sac for southern species. Ultimately, our results suggest that when support is found for the climatic barrier hypothesis, community-level models from a 'group first, then predict' strategy may effectively predict future shifts in species assemblages.}, }
@article {pmid40518712, year = {2025}, author = {Kukkurainen, HI and Sonneveld, BGJS}, title = {Assessment of Sámi food security in Finnish Lapland: climate change impacts and policy effectiveness.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {84}, number = {1}, pages = {2516310}, pmid = {40518712}, issn = {2242-3982}, mesh = {Humans ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Finland ; *Food Security ; *Food Supply ; *Population Groups ; Eastern European People ; }, abstract = {Accelerated climate warming in the Arctic threatens the food security of Indigenous peoples, including the Sámi in Finland. As temperatures rise nearly four times faster than the global average, ecosystems that support traditional Sámi practices, such as reindeer herding, fishing, hunting, and gathering, are increasingly disrupted. These practices are central to Sámi identity, knowledge systems, and social cohesion. However, despite these predictive narratives, the question of how these changes will affect overall food security among the Sámi remains unclear. This study aimed to: 1) investigate how climate change affects Sámi food security, 2) map concerns about anticipated impacts, and 3) assess the effectiveness of Finnish national policies. We addressed four dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilisation, and stability. Data were gathered through semi-structured interviews (N = 10), alongside a policy analysis. Findings indicate that climate change compromises the stability of the Sámi food systems and has broad implications on food security in terms of availability, accessibility, and utilisation. Current policy responses lack sufficient attention to the Sámi's cultural-ecological ties and offer limited support for Arctic-specific adaptation. These results underscore the urgency of culturally responsive and place-based policy action to strengthen Sámi food security in a rapidly changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid40517931, year = {2025}, author = {Lee, EY and Park, S and Kim, YB and Liu, H and Mistry, P and Nguyen, K and Oh, Y and James, ME and Lâm, S and de Lannoy, L and Larouche, R and Manyanga, T and Morrison, SA and Prince, SA and Ross-White, A and Vanderloo, LM and Wachira, LJ and Tremblay, MS}, title = {Ambient environmental conditions and active outdoor play in the context of climate change: A systematic review and meta-synthesis.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {283}, number = {}, pages = {122146}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.122146}, pmid = {40517931}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Ambient environmental conditions, both influenced by and contribute to climate change, is affecting many aspects of daily life, including active and playful lifestyle activities. This systematic review and qualitative synthesis investigated the association(s) between ambient environmental conditions and active outdoor play across the lifespan.<br><br>METHODS: Seven databases were used to identify studies measuring ambient environmental conditions (meteorological conditions, atmospheric pressure, land-use/environmental factors) and its associations (null, favorable, unfavorable) with active outdoor play. Narrative synthesis and meta-synthesis were performed.<br><br>RESULTS: Results across 44 studies encompassed 74,423 individuals, 530,142 observations/counts, and 2029 households. 91% of studies were derived from high-income countries. The average duration of active outdoor play varied by age groups of early years (0-5 years,133.2&#xa0;min/day), children (6-12 years, 153.2&#xa0;min/day), adults (18-64 years, 97.2&#xa0;min/day), and older adults (65+ years, 47.1&#xa0;min/day). Meteorological (null), atmospheric (unfavorable), and land-use/environmental (unfavorable) factors were associated with active outdoor play (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;33 studies). Three studies indicated the potential negative impact of active outdoor play on the environment (unfavorable). Grounded in social-ecological resilience theory, deductive coding was applied to categorize outdoor type, play type, impact of climate change on active outdoor play or vice versa, adaptation, and resilience.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This review provides a comprehensive overview of current evidence on associations between ambient environmental conditions and active outdoor play in the context of climate change. The findings offer insights into how a changing climate may influence opportunities for active outdoor play and inform strategies to promote resilient outdoor play practices.}, }
@article {pmid40517042, year = {2025}, author = {Rudgers, JA and Gehring, CA and Taylor, DL and Taylor, MD and Chung, YA}, title = {Integration of plant-soil feedbacks with resilience theory for climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2025.05.001}, pmid = {40517042}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {The resilience of ecosystems to climate disruption requires internal feedbacks that support the stability of ecosystem structure and function. Such feedbacks may include sustained interactions between plants and soil [plant-soil feedback (PSF)]. Theoretically, PSF could either boost or degrade ecosystem resilience. Three criteria must be met to attribute resilience to PSF: (i) The presence or amount of PSF must be manipulated; (ii) the ecosystem must face climate disruption after PSF is manipulated; and (iii) PSF must alter the resistance or recovery of ecosystem structure or function to disruption. Several case studies suggest that PSF may support (or degrade) resilience, but no study has yet met all criteria. Doing so could yield novel insights into how aboveground-belowground interactions shape ecosystem resilience to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40516193, year = {2025}, author = {Roy, S and More, M and Trivedi, A and Saha, P and Bose, D and Das, S and Mahmud, ZH and Hanifi, SMMA and Chatterjee, S}, title = {Aging and climate change-induced heat stress synergistically increase susceptibility to Vibrio vulnificus infection via an altered gut microbiome-immune axis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {989}, number = {}, pages = {179881}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179881}, pmid = {40516193}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is exacerbating heatwaves, significantly increasing public health risks, including heightened vulnerability to Vibrio vulnificus infections, especially among older adults. While heat stress alone impairs immune regulation and compromises gut integrity, the combined effects of aging and climate-induced heat stress on infectious severity remain insufficiently explored. Using young (12-week-old) and aged (24-month-old) mouse models, we examined how aging and periodic heat stress synergistically influence susceptibility to Vibrio vulnificus by assessing gut microbiome alterations, immune responses, and antibiotic resistance gene dynamics. Heat stress markedly impaired intestinal barrier function, induced significant microbiome shifts, elevated systemic inflammation, and promoted enrichment of antibiotic resistance genes particularly those conferring tetracycline resistance with effects significantly amplified in aged mice. Upon Vibrio vulnificus infection, aged heat-stressed mice demonstrated elevated inflammatory responses, severe intestinal damage, and pronounced immune dysregulation compared to younger counterparts. Gut depletion and probiotic recolonization models further validated microbiota involvement, showing that Roseburia intestinalis significantly reduced heat stress-exacerbated CD4[+] T-cell immunosenescence in aged mice. Collectively, this study provides robust experimental evidence highlighting the critical interplay between aging and climate-driven heat stress in intensifying infectious disease severity via microbiome-immune axis disruptions, underscoring the need for microbiota-targeted strategies in climate-vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid40515447, year = {2025}, author = {Valdez, V and Ferreras, P and Rosalino, LM}, title = {The Effects of Climate Change on Mesocarnivores: A Global Review and Meta-Analysis.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {e70302}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.70302}, pmid = {40515447}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2023.01766.BD//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; LA/P/0121/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; UID/00329/2025//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; *Carnivora/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Food Chain ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, affecting a wide range of species in different ecological networks. Higher trophic level species, such as mesocarnivores, are particularly affected due to bottom-up and top-down cascading effects. The magnitude of climate change impacts on mesocarnivores may vary between regions and taxonomic groups, but this variation is poorly understood. We reviewed 119 articles on the effects of climate change on mesocarnivores (Order Carnivora). We found an increase in studies of climate change effects over time, with canids and mustelids being the most studied carnivores, and herpestids, procyonids, viverrids and ailurids being the least studied. Most of the identified studies were from Europe, followed by North and South America. Africa and Oceania had fewer published studies. The most common approach to assessing the impact of climate change on carnivores was based on the study of species spatial ecology and habitat use, but also on population and community ecology. We used 21 of those articles that used ecological niche modelling to assess future distribution changes as the basis for our meta-analysis. Our results show that although some habitat generalists, mainly canids and procyonids, with a wide range of habitats may benefit from climate change, most mesocarnivores are likely to experience range contractions. However, this general pattern varies among carnivore families. Species from arid environments, as well as those that are specialists in montane and tropical forests, are likely to experience the largest declines in range. This is especially true for species from Africa, Asia and South America, as these regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Our study highlights that climate change affects carnivores in different ways and that there is also regional variation in impacts; therefore, conservation efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change should be tailored to each continent and species.}, }
@article {pmid40514570, year = {2025}, author = {Zhao, Y and Qin, F and Cui, Q and Li, Q and Cui, Y and Birks, HJB and Liang, C and Zhao, W and Li, H and Ren, W and Deng, C and Ge, J and Kong, Y and Liu, Y and Zhang, Z and Zhang, J and Cai, M and Wei, H and Qiu, H and Xu, H and Yang, H and Chen, C and Piao, S and Guo, Z}, title = {Three-and-a-half million years of Tibetan Plateau vegetation dynamics in response to climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40514570}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {42488201//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau supports the largest alpine meadow ecosystem globally. It is considered extremely vulnerable to global warming. Knowledge of past vegetation dynamics under similarly warm climates could shed insights into where the tipping point for regime shifts may lie. We report a continuous multicentennial-resolved pollen record for the last 3.5 Myr from a lake sediment core retrieved from the Zoige Basin (~3,350-3,450 m above sea level) on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. It reveals a detailed picture of the vegetation dynamics across several timescales using the approaches of biomization, numerical analysis, statistical modelling and vegetation simulations. These lines of evidence show that vegetation underwent transformation from stable forest in the mid-late Pliocene Period (3.5-2.73 million years ago (Ma)) to codominance of forest and steppe in the early Quaternary Period (2.73-1.54 Ma) and to a meadow-dominated ecosystem after ~1.54 Ma, along with glacial-interglacial and millennial-scale grassland-forest shifts. These vegetational changes were largely controlled by temperature change. A global warming of ~2-3 °C is the most important threshold for the forest expansion and meadow resilience loss on the Tibetan Plateau. By analogy to the past, we suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the current Tibetan Plateau meadow is at risk of major transformation.}, }
@article {pmid40514402, year = {2025}, author = {Burke, A and Grove, M and Maier, A and Wren, C and Drapeau, M and Poisot, T and Moine, O and Boisard, S and Bruxelles, L}, title = {The archaeology of climate change: a blueprint for integrating environmental and cultural systems.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {5289}, pmid = {40514402}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {2019-SE3-254686//Fonds de Recherche du Qu&#xe9;bec-Soci&#xe9;t&#xe9; et Culture (FRQSC)/ ; SSHRC #435-2016-1158//Gouvernement du Canada | Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (Conseil de recherches en sciences humaines du Canada)/ ; }, abstract = {Cultural systems play an important role in shaping the interactions between humans and the environment, and are in turn shaped by these interactions. However, at present, cultural systems are poorly integrated into the models used by climate scientists to study the interaction of natural and anthropogenic processes (i.e. Earth systems models) due to pragmatic and conceptual barriers. In this Perspective, we demonstrate how the archaeology of climate change, an interdisciplinary field that uses the archaeological record to explore human-environment interactions, is uniquely placed to overcome these barriers. We use concepts drawn from climate science and evolutionary anthropology to show how complex systems modeling that focuses on the spatial structure of the environment and its impact on demographic variables, social networks and cultural evolution, can bridge the gap between large-scale climate processes and local-scale social processes. The result is a blueprint for the design of integrative models that produce testable hypotheses about the impact of climate change on human systems.}, }
@article {pmid40514319, year = {2025}, author = {Parnes, MF and Mosley, L and Burris, HH and Weiss, EM}, title = {Climate change and environmental degradation: bioethical considerations and impact for neonatal care.}, journal = {Seminars in perinatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {152099}, doi = {10.1016/j.semperi.2025.152099}, pmid = {40514319}, issn = {1558-075X}, abstract = {Climate change has severe consequences for neonatal health. Neonates are uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to their developing bodies and immature immune and thermoregulatory systems. Climate change increases the risk of severe weather events, including extreme heat and natural disasters, as well as pollution and chemical exposures. The physiologic fragility of neonates and dependence on a stable environment require healthcare systems and policymakers to ensure protections are in place to mitigate health risks and potential impacts that will have long-lasting effects on individual development and well-being. The current article details the impacts of climate change on neonatal health across the lifecycle as well as the disproportionate consequences for communities most vulnerable to climate change. We provide evidence as to why this is a bioethical issue and offer recommendations for policies to protect neonatal health and promote environmental and climate justice.}, }
@article {pmid40513282, year = {2025}, author = {Sharma, R and Pradhan, V}, title = {Assessing community values of civil society organizations led coastal ecotourism conservation projects on climate change context.}, journal = {Evaluation and program planning}, volume = {112}, number = {}, pages = {102624}, doi = {10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2025.102624}, pmid = {40513282}, issn = {1873-7870}, abstract = {The study examines the key community values defining the Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) institutional climate capacity of coastal communities in the context of ecotourism-based conservation projects along the Maharashtra coastal belt, India. The study proposes conceptualized dimensions based on the Situation-Actor-Process-Learning (SAP-L) model. Data was collected through consultative approaches involving CSOs, NGOs, and SHGs, using focused group discussions and key informant interviews in the conservation project areas. The study evaluates the CSOs institutional strengths, weaknesses and determines key factors influence their institutional climate capacities. The findings indicate that CSO expertise and collaborations foster communication and trust among ecotourism beneficiaries, incorporating sociocultural factors and promoting climate action orientation. Planning and budgetary processes assist in need-based scenario planning for CSO management decisions. The outcomes contribute to understanding CSO's climate capacity in coastal ecotourism, informing policy and practice. The study also emphasizes the need for further quantitative research in this area.}, }
@article {pmid40513270, year = {2025}, author = {Li, C and Lei, W and Huang, Y and Hu, W}, title = {Analysis of the influence of climate change on wetland evolution and its driving process from an integrated perspective of landscape connectivity and fragmentation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {389}, number = {}, pages = {126155}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126155}, pmid = {40513270}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The evolution of wetland ecosystems from the perspectives of landscape connectivity and fragmentation is a critical interdisciplinary topic in contemporary wetland science and landscape ecology. In the context of global warming, the mechanisms by which wetland patches respond to climate change through changes in landscape connectivity and fragmentation require further elucidation. This study introduces an SEMD-XGboost-SHAP ecological modeling framework that systematically examines the evolution of wetland landscape patches and their responses under multiple climate scenarios. The findings indicate: (1) From 2000 to 2022, Permanent water, Marsh, and Flooded flat were the primary drivers of wetland evolution in Dongting Lake. Rapid warming led to a significant reduction in wetlands area, whereas slow warming resulted in a notable increase. (2) At the patch scale, aggregation was the predominant form of wetland evolution, while dissection characterized degradation. Under rapid warming and cooling scenarios, patches underwent significant evolution with connectivity increasing by 9.2 % and 48.63 %, respectively. Conversely, under slow warming and cooling scenarios, patches experienced significant degradation, with fragmentation increasing by 9.75 % and 40.62 %. (3) Annual average maximum temperature was a common factor influencing land type conversion across climate scenarios. In terms of patch evolution, annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and annual average evapotranspiration were key drivers. Moreover, the interaction between temperature and precipitation played a crucial role in maintaining the stability of wetland patterns. This study provides a foundation for understanding the critical responses of wetland patterns to climate change and offers insights into nature-based solutions for wetland conservation.}, }
@article {pmid40513093, year = {2025}, author = {Yang, Q and Shi, X and Wang, F and Cheng, H and Luo, Y and Li, Z and Ren, Z and Ding, W and Wu, J and Jiang, H and Han, Z and Fan, W}, title = {Trends in Fishery Ecosystem Stability in the East China Sea under Dual Pressures of Fishing and Global Warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.4c14605}, pmid = {40513093}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Fishery ecosystem stability, requiring balanced biomass and biodiversity, is vital for sustainability but is being threatened by fishing and global warming. Here, we developed an Ecopath model for the East China Sea (ECS) with 45 functional groups and constructed an Ecosim model with 15 scenarios, using fishing effort (FE) and sea surface temperature (SST) as driving variables. The resistance resilience stability (RRS) index was proposed to quantify the comprehensive changes in total biomass and stability of the ECS under dual pressures from 2000 to 2100. SST increase led to biomass declines eight to 12 times greater than FE increase, though 63.06% of economic species were negatively affected by rising FE. Notably, several key economic species may face the risk of extinction by the end of the century under a 10% FE increase and 4.0 °C SST rise. This will pose a significant disturbance to the ecosystem stability. However, our results suggest that reducing FE to 50% of current levels and limiting SST rise to within 1.5 °C could effectively prevent a further biomass reduction and keep the RRS index within reasonable limits. The research contributes to a quantitative analysis of ecosystem stability under dual pressures, providing a scientific basis for sustainable fishery resource management.}, }
@article {pmid40512741, year = {2025}, author = {Shinan-Altman, S and Hamama-Raz, Y}, title = {Climate change worry, awareness, risk appraisal, and pro-environmental behaviors: Are these factors different for individuals with and without chronic diseases?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {e0325836}, pmid = {40512741}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Chronic Disease/psychology ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Awareness ; Israel ; Aged ; Young Adult ; *Anxiety/psychology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses significant risks to human health, particularly exacerbating conditions for individuals with chronic diseases. This study aimed to examine differences in climate change awareness, risk appraisal, pro-environmental behaviors (PEBs), and climate change worry between individuals with and without chronic diseases, and to investigate their interrelationships.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional survey design was employed, using convenience sampling. Participants included 405 Israeli adults (146 with chronic diseases, and 259 without) who completed validated self-report questionnaires assessing climate change awareness, risk appraisal, PEBs, and worry. Data analyses included descriptive statistics, Pearson correlations, and multivariate analysis of covariance, using SPSS version 29. Moderated serial mediation analysis was conducted using Hayes' PROCESS macro (model 92) with 5,000 bootstrap samples.<br><br>RESULTS: Participants with chronic diseases reported significantly higher levels of climate change awareness, F(1, 400)=5.88, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;.016; risk appraisal, F(1, 400)=12.68, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001; PEBs, F(1, 400)=4.00, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;.046; and worry, F(1, 400)=6.81, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;.009, than did participants without chronic diseases. The moderated serial mediation model was significant (effect&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.02, SE&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.01, 95%CI [0.001, 0.04]), explaining 44% of the variance in climate change worry. Awareness positively predicted risk appraisal (B&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.33, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001), which in turn predicted both PEBs (B&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.23, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001) and worry (B&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.29, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001). The indirect pathway from awareness to worry via PEBs was significant only among participants with chronic diseases (B&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.04, SE&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.02, 95%CI [0.01, 0.10]). Similarly, the complete serial mediation path-from awareness to risk appraisal, to PEBs, and finally to worry-was significant for participants with chronic diseases (B&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.02, SE&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.01, 95%CI [0.01, 0.05]) but not for participants without chronic diseases.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results emphasize the need for targeted communication strategies and policy initiatives that address the specific vulnerabilities and behaviors of chronically ill populations. Future research should utilize longitudinal approaches and objective assessments to deepen our understanding of these dynamics and inform effective interventions.}, }
@article {pmid40512470, year = {2025}, author = {Selçuk Tosun, A and Ünsal Yüceer, &#xdc; and Demirdağ, B and Akgül Gündoğdu, N and Lök, N}, title = {Climate Change Worry and Environmental Sensitivity Among Nursing Students.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13580}, pmid = {40512470}, issn = {1525-1446}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between nursing students' worry about climate change and their environmental sensitivity.<br><br>DESIGN AND METHOD: This research is a descriptive and correlational study. It was conducted with 432 nursing students. The data were collected using a Personal Information Form, the Climate Change Worry Scale, and the Environmental Sensitivity Scale. Descriptive statistics (frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation), independent groups t-test, Mann-Whitney U test, one-way ANOVA, and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze the data.<br><br>RESULTS: The mean score of nursing students on Climate Change Worry Scale was 30.74&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;6.92, and the mean score on the Environmental Sensitivity Scale was 4.24&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;0.44. A statistically significant moderate negative correlation was found between nursing students' worry about climate change and their level of environmental sensitivity (r&#xa0;=&#xa0;-0.694, p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.01).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed a moderate negative correlation between climate change worry and environmental sensitivity among nursing students. Reducing worry about climate change and enhancing environmental sensitivity may enable the students to take an active role in protecting public health in their professional careers.}, }
@article {pmid40512225, year = {2025}, author = {Wahl, HW and Budnick, A}, title = {[Theory-driven examination of available data on age(ing) and climate change: an explorative contribution].}, journal = {Zeitschrift fur Gerontologie und Geriatrie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40512225}, issn = {1435-1269}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The socioemotional selectivity theory and the concept of generativity lead to two contradictory predictions, namely (1) a decrease in the significance and importance of climate issues with age, but (2) a similarly high level of engagement at the behavioral level, at least compared to younger age groups.<br><br>METHOD: Marking survey studies from German-speaking and European countries are used to provide a&#xa0;descriptive test of the two predictions.<br><br>RESULTS: On the one hand, the selected studies confirm a&#xa0;decrease in the significance and importance of climate issues as people get older. On the other hand, the age segment of people between around 60&#xa0;and 75&#xa0;years old in particular shows a&#xa0;similar or even higher level of commitment in many climate-relevant areas of behavior compared to younger people.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We apply the theory of planned behavior to explain the at first glance inconsistent findings driven by our predictions. Future research on aging and climate change needs a&#xa0;more theory-driven approach.}, }
@article {pmid40512160, year = {2025}, author = {Sagar Kumar, M and Umamahesh, NV}, title = {Assessing low-impact development strategies using synthetic rainfall under climate change across different urbanization densities.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {91}, number = {11}, pages = {1220-1233}, pmid = {40512160}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Urbanization ; *Rain ; *Floods ; India ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Urban flooding, exacerbated by climate change and rapid urbanization, presents major global challenges. This study assesses flood dynamics and proposes management strategies for Hyderabad, India, focusing on urbanization density zones XII, IV, and V. Urban flood modeling evaluates the combined impacts of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes from 2020 to 2075, covering both present and future scenarios. The modeling uses the PCSWMM framework, integrating synthetic rainfall data derived from Hyderabad's Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curve for 2-, 5-, and 10-year return periods, and rainfall generated through the Markov chain method for 1- to 10-day durations. These datasets support both flood modeling and the development of management strategies. Low-impact development (LID) strategies are implemented based on critical catchment prioritization and available open spaces. PCSWMM results indicate significant reductions of 8-16.41% and 3.57-12.4% in maximum flow at outlets following LID implementation during extreme 1-10-day events in zones IV &amp; V and XII, respectively. Additional reductions of 0.59-5.58% and 0.24-0.45% are noted for synthetic rainfall events with 2-, 5-, and 10-year return periods. The study recommends adopting multiple LID types to effectively mitigate flood damage and highlights the importance of enhancing LID infrastructure for improved flood resilience.}, }
@article {pmid40509111, year = {2025}, author = {Sousa, AC and Sousa, AM and Corrêa, WC and Marques, JI and Meneses, KC and Pandorfi, H and Silva, TGFD and Silva, JLBD and Silva, MVD and Machado, NAF}, title = {Bioclimatic Zoning and Climate Change Impacts on Dairy Cattle in Maranhão, Brazil.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {40509111}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {BEPP-03138/23//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa e ao Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico do Maranh&#xe3;o (FAPEMA)/ ; ECOSSISTEMA_INOVACAO-11929/22//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa e ao Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico do Maranh&#xe3;o (FAPEMA)/ ; }, abstract = {To build climate-resilient livestock systems, public policies must be informed by bioclimatic zoning, enabling region-specific interventions and more efficient resource allocation. This study aimed to conduct bioclimatic zoning for dairy cattle farming in the state of Maranhão, Brazil. Big data analysis techniques and predictive geostatistical modeling were applied to historical (2012-2023) and future climate scenarios under intermediate (RCP4.5) and high-intensity (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions. Kriging maps of THI revealed a decreasing north-south thermal gradient, with values exceeding 80 during critical years. Milk yield losses were more pronounced in high-producing cows, reaching up to 5 kg/cow/day under extreme heat. Areas identified as drought-prone exhibited spatial patterns consistent with THI distributions. The projections indicate that, under the RCP 4.5 scenario, over 60% of Maranhão will exhibit average THI values between 78 and 81 by the end of the century. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, large areas of the state are expected to reach THI values above 86. Under these conditions, estimated milk production losses may exceed 4 kg/cow/day for moderate-yielding animals and 9 kg/cow/day for high-yielding ones, respectively. The results reinforce the importance of bioclimatic zoning to support informed policymaking in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40508322, year = {2025}, author = {Lee, KC and Song, YG and Koo, HJ and Kim, KJ and Kim, HJ and Baek, HY and Na, SJ}, title = {Effects of Climate Change Scenarios on Growth, Flowering Characteristics, and Honey Production Potential of Pseudolysimachion rotundum var. subintegrum.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {40508322}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {FG0403-2023-03-2025//National Institute of Forestry Science/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change significantly influences plants' physiology, flowering phenology, and nectar production, affecting pollinator interactions and apicultural sustainability. This study examines the physiological responses of Pseudolysimachion rotundum (Nakai) Holub var. subintegrum (Nakai) T.Yamaz. (Plantaginaceae) under projected climate change scenarios, focusing on flowering traits, nectar secretion, and honey production potential. Elevated CO2 levels enhanced its net photosynthesis and water-use efficiency, supporting sustained carbohydrate assimilation and promoting aboveground biomass accumulation. However, the increased nitrogen demand for vegetative growth and inflorescence production may have led to reduced allocation of nitrogen to the nectar, contributing to a decline in its amino acid concentrations. The flowering period advanced with rising temperatures, with peak bloom occurring up to four days earlier under the SSP5 conditions. While the nectar secretion per flower remained stable, an increase in floral abundance led to a 3.8-fold rise in the estimated honey production per hectare. The analysis of the nectar's composition revealed that sucrose hydrolysis intensified under higher temperatures, shifting the nectar toward a hexose-rich profile. Although nectar quality slightly declined due to reductions in sucrose and nitrogen-rich amino acids, phenylalanine-the most preferred amino acid by honeybees-remained dominant across all scenarios. These findings confirm the strong climate resilience of P. rotundum var. subintegrum, highlighting its potential as a sustainable nectar source in future apicultural landscapes. Given the crucial role of nitrogen in both plant growth and nectar composition, future research should explore soil nitrogen dynamics and plant nitrogen metabolism to ensure long-term sustainability in plant-pollinator interactions and apicultural practices.}, }
@article {pmid40508275, year = {2025}, author = {Xie, C and Li, M and Jim, CY and Chen, R}, title = {Distribution Pattern of Endangered Cycas taiwaniana Carruth. in China Under Climate-Change Scenarios Using the MaxEnt Model.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {40508275}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {725RC789//Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province/ ; CB301//Research Matching Grant of the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong/ ; }, abstract = {Understanding the potential distribution patterns and habitat suitability of threatened species under climate change scenarios is essential for conservation efforts. This study aimed to assess the current and future distribution patterns of the endangered Cycas taiwaniana in China using the MaxEnt model under two contrasting climate change scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low emissions) and SSP3-7.0 (high emissions), projected for the 2050s and 2070s periods. The model identified key bioclimatic variables influencing habitat suitability, including Annual Mean Temperature, Mean Diurnal Range, and Temperature Seasonality. Under current climate conditions, the species' most suitable habitats are primarily located in southern coastal regions, with Hainan Island showing exceptional suitability. However, future projections under the moderate emission (SSP1-2.6) scenario suggest a significant shrinking of suitable habitat areas, particularly a 27.5% decline in excellent and a 35% decrease in good categories by the 2070s. In contrast, under the high-emission scenario (SSP3-7.0), while an initial decline in suitable habitats is projected, the model predicts an unexpected expansion of highly suitable areas by 2070, particularly in Guangxi, Guangdong, and Fujian coastal regions. The results highlight the vulnerability of C. taiwaniana to climate change and underscore the importance of developing adaptive conservation strategies to mitigate potential habitat loss. The findings also emphasize the need for further research on species-specific responses to climate change and the development of proactive measures to safeguard the future distribution of this threatened species.}, }
@article {pmid40506838, year = {2025}, author = {Gupta, AK and Thornbush, M and Wang, T}, title = {Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Cutaneous Fungal Infections.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.17908}, pmid = {40506838}, issn = {1365-4632}, abstract = {Fungal infections are an important source of morbidity and mortality that can manifest as superficial or invasive diseases. Diagnostic techniques for human fungal pathogens remain problematic, and multi-drug resistance is emerging. This review addresses the potential emergence of new fungal pathogens in changing environments and reported instances of cutaneous fungal infections after natural disasters. Global warming does more than increase the mean global temperature; it is associated with changing precipitation patterns and major climatic events. With natural disasters, niches are created for the proliferation of fungal pathogens affecting humans across previously existing geographical boundaries. Here, we reviewed reports of cutaneous fungal infections after natural disasters, including earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, hurricanes, and tornadoes. Of importance is the potential for thermal adaptation leading to the evolution of new human pathogens, exacerbated by the elevated environmental fungal levels in disaster situations. Studies have documented higher risks of contracting typical tinea infections, as well as opportunistic, trauma-related infections by environmental fungi. The latter is especially concerning due to atypical clinical presentations that could lead to treatment delays, antifungal resistance, and systemic complications. These support the importance of considering climate change as affecting the adaptation of these pathogens and the consequences of this change for human populations. A One Health framework should be advocated to address the impact of climate change on dermatological care.}, }
@article {pmid40506251, year = {2025}, author = {McGrath, CB and Guard, HE and Yearley, S and Marlink, M and Kutzer, KM and Ecsedy, E and Dun Rappaport, J and Rimm, EB and Hart, JE and Laden, F and Willett, WC and Vaselkiv, JB and Mucci, LA}, title = {Climate change and cancer risk: connections with physical activity, diet, and adiposity.}, journal = {Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers &amp; prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-25-0501}, pmid = {40506251}, issn = {1538-7755}, abstract = {Climate change and its environmental consequences have broadly influenced human health, including the direct effects of climate related-environmental exposures increasing cancer risk. In this review, we summarize evidence and make inferences on the indirect impact of climate change on cancer etiology through three interrelated cancer risk factors-physical activity, diet, and adiposity, and how these, in turn, may have downstream effects on cancer risk. Moreover, we highlight ways in which climate change will likely exacerbate existing cancer disparities through these three cancer risk factors.}, }
@article {pmid40503521, year = {2025}, author = {Harsanto, B and Kasumaningrum, Y and Arviansyah, MR and Siregar, AY and Purnomo, D and Freddy,  and Iskandar, Y and Utama, ID and Sari, DI}, title = {Leveraging disruptive technologies for food security: A systematic review on agricultural supply chain resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Current research in food science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {101079}, pmid = {40503521}, issn = {2665-9271}, abstract = {Climate change and global warming are increasingly recognized as major threats to agriculture and food security worldwide. It is a major problem for supply chains and food safety. Digital agricultural transformation and primarily disruptive technologies are among the primary solutions to overcome these challenges to ensure food sustainability. This research fills the gap in studies that focuses exclusively on analyzing disruptive technologies in the agricultural sector. The primary purpose of this research is to offer findings from the literature on the application of disruptive technologies to support food security and the protection of agricultural supply chains. Therefore, a systematic literature review was conducted to review the use of disruptive technologies in agricultural supply chains to address the challenges presented by climate change. A total of 65 selected papers were coded and analyzed according to technology type, country, commodity, and challenges faced. This review primarily seeks to provide answers to the following research questions: what disruptive technologies are being used in the agricultural sector in response to climate change and disasters? And what is the role of disruptive technologies in maintaining resilience in the agricultural sector in the context of climate change and disasters? We provide a comprehensive analysis that offers a broad and comprehensive overview of many important issues regarding the use of disruptive technologies in agricultural supply chains. This technology helps farmers make better decisions, enables effective and efficient resource management, and increases productivity.}, }
@article {pmid40504177, year = {2020}, author = {Davies, A and Hooks, G and Knox-Hayes, J and Liévanos, RS}, title = {Riskscapes and the socio-spatial challenges of climate change.}, journal = {Cambridge journal of regions, economy and society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {rsaa016}, pmid = {40504177}, issn = {1752-1386}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of the physical threats to human and planetary wellbeing. However, climate change risks, and their interaction with other "riskscapes", remain understudied. Riskscapes encompass different viewpoints on the threat of loss across space, time, individuals and collectives. This Special Issue of the Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy, and Society enhances our understanding of the multifaceted and interlocking dimensions of climate change and riskscapes. It brings together rigorous and critical international scholarship across diverse realms on inquiry under two, interlinked, themes: (i) governance and institutional responses and (ii) vulnerabilities and inequalities. The contributors offer a forceful reminder that when considering climate change, social justice principles cannot be appended after the fact. Climate change adaptation and mitigation pose complex and interdependent social and ethical dilemmas that will need to be explicitly confronted in any activation of "Green New Deal" strategies currently being developed internationally. Such critical insights about the layered, unequal and institutional dimensions of risks are of paramount import when considering other riskscapes pertaining to conflict and war, displaced people and pandemics like the 2019-2020 global COVID-19 pandemic.}, }
@article {pmid40504141, year = {2020}, author = {Hepburn, C and O'Callaghan, B and Stern, N and Stiglitz, J and Zenghelis, D}, title = {Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?.}, journal = {Oxford review of economic policy}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {graa015}, doi = {10.1093/oxrep/graa015}, pmid = {40504141}, issn = {1460-2121}, abstract = {The COVID-19 crisis is likely to have dramatic consequences for progress on climate change. Imminent fiscal recovery packages could entrench or partly displace the current fossil-fuel-intensive economic system. Here, we survey 231 central bank officials, finance ministry officials, and other economic experts from G20 countries on the relative performance of 25 major fiscal recovery archetypes across four dimensions: speed of implementation, economic multiplier, climate impact potential, and overall desirability. We identify five policies with high potential on both economic multiplier and climate impact metrics: clean physical infrastructure, building efficiency retrofits, investment in education and training, natural capital investment, and clean R&amp;D. In lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rural support spending is of particular value while clean R&amp;D is less important. These recommendations are contextualised through analysis of the short-run impacts of COVID-19 on greenhouse gas curtailment and plausible medium-run shifts in the habits and behaviours of humans and institutions.}, }
@article {pmid40500256, year = {2025}, author = {Fesenmyer, KA and Poor, EE and Terasaki Hart, DE and Veldman, JW and Fleischman, F and Choksi, P and Archibald, S and Armani, M and Fagan, ME and Fricke, EC and Terrer, C and Hasler, N and Williams, CA and Ellis, PW and Cook-Patton, SC}, title = {Addressing critiques refines global estimates of reforestation potential for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {4572}, pmid = {40500256}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Forests ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Reforestation is a prominent climate change mitigation strategy, but available global maps of reforestation potential are widely criticized and highly variable, which limits their ability to provide robust estimates of both the locations and total area of opportunity. Here we develop global maps that address common critiques, build on a review of 89 reforestation maps created at multiple scales, and present eight reforestation scenarios with varying objectives, including providing ecosystem services, minimizing social conflicts, and delivering government policies. Across scenarios, we find up to 195 Mha (million hectares) are available (2225 TgCO2e (teragrams of carbon dioxide equivalent) per year total net mitigation potential), which is 71-92% smaller than previous estimates because of conservative modeling choices, incorporation of safeguards, and use of recent, high-resolution datasets. This area drops as low as 6 Mha (53 TgCO2e per year total net mitigation potential) if only statutorily protected areas are targeted. Few locations simultaneously achieve multiple objectives, suggesting that a mix of lands and restoration motivations will be needed to capitalize on the many potential benefits of reforestation.}, }
@article {pmid40498788, year = {2025}, author = {Gómez-Llano, JH and Galvão-Silva, FL and Acevedo, FE and Castro-Llanos, F and Gottschalk, MS and Nava, DE}, title = {Biological control under climate change: Distribution patterns of the South American fruit fly, Anastrepha fraterculus and two of its parasitoids in the Americas.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {e0325761}, pmid = {40498788}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Tephritidae/parasitology/physiology ; *Pest Control, Biological ; South America ; *Wasps/physiology ; Hymenoptera/physiology ; Animal Distribution ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects the distribution of insects, such as pests and parasitoids. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been developed to determine distribution patterns and risk areas for pests and biological control agents under different climate change scenarios. The South American fruit fly, Anastrepha fraterculus (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is an important pest of cultivated fruits throughout the Americas that can be controlled by natural enemies, such as the native parasitoid Doryctobracon areolatus (Szépligeti) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) and the introduced parasitoid Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae). However, the control efficacy and parasitism performance of these organisms could be affected by changing environmental conditions. SDMs were conducted using Random Forest to predict suitable areas for the establishment of A. fraterculus, D. areolatus, and D. longicaudata under different climate scenarios or Representative Concentration Pathways (SSPs) (SSP 2-4.5 and 5-8.8) in two different periods (2021-2040 and 2041-2060). Our results predicted an increase in suitable areas for A. fraterculus in the Americas, especially in some South American countries such as Colombia and Brazil. Moreover, the projected distribution of these species is intricately linked to the regional climatic patterns. Temperate and tropical areas were more suitable for the establishment of A. fraterculus; D. areolatus was better suited to temperate climates; while tropical climates were more suitable for D. longicaudata. Suitable areas for the establishment of both parasitoid species were predicted to increase in future climate scenarios, with D. longicaudata having a greater geographical expansion than D. areolatus. These parasitoids could be used as biocontrol agents in almost all areas suitable for the establishment of A. fraterculus.}, }
@article {pmid40497078, year = {2024}, author = {Okesanya, OJ and Alnaeem, KFH and Hassan, HK and Oso, AT and Adigun, OA and Bouaddi, O and Olaleke, NO and M Kheir, SG and Haruna, UA and Shomuyiwa, DO and Manirambona, E and Asebot, MT}, title = {The intersectional impact of climate change and gender inequalities in Africa.}, journal = {Public health challenges}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {e169}, pmid = {40497078}, issn = {2769-2450}, abstract = {The global pursuit of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals underscores the importance of combating inequality, with climate change emerging as a significant threat, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This commentary explores the profound impact of climate change on the lives of women in Africa, shedding light on a critical issue where 80% of the female population in LMICs grapples with its far-reaching consequences. Climate change is exacerbating existing gender disparities, particularly within the realms of agriculture, livelihoods, and resource access. Barriers like limited training and technology access hinder effective adaptation, perpetuating discrimination. Rooted deeply in social and cultural norms, the consequences of climate change negatively impact the human rights of women, resulting in increased vulnerability to illnesses, malnutrition, limited housing, and restricted support services. Health risks, including malaria transmission and respiratory diseases, further compound existing challenges, leading to increased rates of anemia, violence against women, alarming spikes in child marriages, and socio-economic consequences. Integrated policies emphasizing gender mainstreaming, multisectoral approaches, and closing gender gaps in asset ownership are crucial to addressing these challenges. Education, training, and upskilling opportunities are essential to empowering women to confront climate change, further advocating for the development and enforcement of laws and policies recognizing gender differences and safeguarding women's rights. Moreover, there is a need for integrated solutions to foster sustainable development in Africa, as climate change is not a standalone issue but rather intertwines with various aspects of life. By advocating for policies that promote gender equality, education, and resource access, it seeks to pave the way for a more resilient and empowered female population, capable of navigating the complexities of climate change and contributing to the broader goal of sustainable development on the African continent.}, }
@article {pmid40496795, year = {2023}, author = {Ramazanu, S and Wiyono, L and Abu-Odah, H and Comabig, RG and Musa, SS and Mahmood, J and Goh, YZ and Hussain, NAB and Rajasegaran, S and Skanthakumar, T and Miranda, AV}, title = {Current landscape of climate change adaptation and health preparedness among indigenous populations in Southeast Asia.}, journal = {Public health challenges}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {e129}, pmid = {40496795}, issn = {2769-2450}, abstract = {Human-induced climate change poses a pervasive threat to the world. Human activities, such as deforestation, farming livestock, and burning fossil fuels, are key drivers of climate change. Like other regions, the Southeast Asian region is greatly impacted by climate change. The article focuses on examining the current landscape of climate change adaptation and health preparedness among indigenous populations in Southeast Asia (SEA). Climate change will affect the indigenous populations disproportionately. Over the years, indigenous people living in SEA have faced increasing challenges. For instance, air pollution resulting from forest fires causes respiratory conditions, skin irritations, and other significant health risks. The article also highlights climate change-related health system preparedness in ASEAN and indigenous strategies in navigating climate change adaption. As the saying goes, "actions speak louder than words." To develop sustainable regional climate change adaptation strategies, representation and voices of indigenous peoples matter. At ASEAN level, although the ASEAN Working Group on Climate Change was convened to develop policies and coordinate action plans among its member states, it is now key to include and learn from the instrumental strategies of indigenous communities in conserving, protecting, and restoring forests. Beyond acknowledging the efforts of indigenous communities on paper, it is now time to translate scientific knowledge into practical actions. It is necessary for us to value and recognize indigenous peoples, particularly in SEA as valued agents in co-creating sustainable solutions for climate agenda. Centering indigenous peoples' knowledge in climate adaptation is crucial for strengthening collective resilience in climate action strategies. Conclusively, the article advocates for the prioritization of indigenous communities' leadership efforts in ASEAN-wide climate action initiatives and climate action policy.}, }
@article {pmid40496953, year = {2023}, author = {Ferreira, MAM and Leite, YLR and Junior, CC and Vicente, CR}, title = {Impact of climate change on public health in Brazil.}, journal = {Public health challenges}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {e62}, pmid = {40496953}, issn = {2769-2450}, abstract = {Brazil is South America's largest country and economy, represented mainly by agricultural commodities. Its vast rainforest and biodiversity are at constant risk from human actions that are seen by scientists contributing to climate change. This article dissects how Brazil influences and is directly and indirectly affected by climate change and possible strategies to control the current situation. Climate change impacts Brazilian public health in multi-scenarios and is influenced by socioeconomical and geopolitical aspects, such as urbanization, access to sanitation and sewage, precipitation intensity and frequency, and public health policies. Therefore, surveillance and control measures, alongside socioeconomic policies, must be orchestrated to minimize human actions that impact climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40496692, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Public health challenges}, volume = {1}, number = {4}, pages = {e29}, pmid = {40496692}, issn = {2769-2450}, }
@article {pmid40496464, year = {2025}, author = {Abu El Kheir-Mataria, W and Chun, S}, title = {Climate change and women's cancer in the MENA region: assessing temperature-related health impacts.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1529706}, pmid = {40496464}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; *Climate Change ; Middle East/epidemiology ; Africa, Northern/epidemiology ; Prevalence ; Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/epidemiology/mortality ; *Neoplasms/epidemiology/mortality ; Breast Neoplasms/epidemiology/mortality ; Ovarian Neoplasms/epidemiology/mortality ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change poses a significant threat to public health, exacerbating health inequalities. Women in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, identified as high-risk, are particularly affected.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the influence of rising temperatures on cancer prevalence and mortality among women in the MENA region, filling critical knowledge gaps.<br><br>METHODS: We employed Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) analysis to examine the correlation between increased ambient temperatures and the prevalence and mortality of four types of cancer (breast, cervical, ovarian, and uterine) across 17 MENA countries.<br><br>RESULTS: Our analysis indicates a significant correlation between prolonged exposure to high ambient temperatures and all four cancer types studied. Notably, the prevalence of breast, ovarian, and cervical cancers is markedly influenced by temperature increases.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings underscore the necessity of incorporating climate change adaptation strategies into national cancer control plans. Such integration is vital to mitigate the health impacts of climate change on women's cancer prevalence and mortality in the MENA region.}, }
@article {pmid40496147, year = {2024}, author = {Oyinloye, EA and Ogunkola, IO and Adebisi, YA and Adewole, IJ and Lucero-Prisno, DE}, title = {Climate change, flooding, and HIV transmission in Africa: Potential relationships and a call for action.}, journal = {Public health challenges}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {e192}, pmid = {40496147}, issn = {2769-2450}, abstract = {The increasing effects of climate change have intensified floods globally, especially in Africa, where millions of people live in poverty and are highly vulnerable to flooding. Climate change disproportionately affects the vulnerable, who are least equipped to handle its consequences, by exacerbating their situation. One such consequence is the potential for increased human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. Africa has been disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic. It now faces the additional challenge of a changing climate and floods, which are capable of increasing HIV transmission in Africa through several pathways. They can force population displacement and migration, leading to the expansion of sexual networks among people living with HIV (PLWHIV). They may also create conditions conducive to the spread of other infections. Floods can cause food insecurity, which can result in various sexual behaviors that expose people to HIV infection. As global warming is linked to a decrease in African food production capacity, the effect of food insecurity on HIV may be prominent in countries where transactional sexual means is a major route of HIV transmission. Floods can also hinder the provision of HIV services, such as pre- and postexposure prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy distribution, which may worsen the health outcomes of PLWHIV and promote HIV transmission, particularly in rural and remote communities. It is crucial to develop a climate-resilient framework, including education, sustained access to HIV services, and promotion of social welfare for HIV prevention and treatment, to address the complex relationship between HIV, floods, and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40495579, year = {2025}, author = {Rutschmann, A and Moskwik, MP and Lempert, RJ and Bukovsky, MS and McGinnis, S and Warren, DL and Mearns, LO and Parmesan, C}, title = {Robust Conservation Planning for Biodiversity Under Climate Change Uncertainty.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {e70293}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.70293}, pmid = {40495579}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//US DoE RGMA/ ; //National Science Foundation: NSF/ ; //DOE/NICCR/ ; //Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Biodiversity ; Uncertainty ; Decision Making ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {When designing new protected areas, conservation managers often use bioclimatic models to anticipate the effects of climate change on species distributions. Recent studies have shown that the outputs of such models frequently differ in direction and magnitude, generating uncertainties that compromise their value for guiding conservation plans. Traditional approaches tend to minimise this uncertainty by designing adaptive strategies or by complexifying predictive models. However, these approaches may prove inadequate when uncertainty grows too large, as is the case with climate change. Here, rather than attempting to reduce uncertainty, we propose to embrace and value it in order to seek conservation measures that are as robust as possible to many plausible futures. By adapting this "Robust Decision Making" framework to conservation, we stress tested five generic conservation strategies against hundreds of plausible futures, for each of 22 species of concern. Our conceptual study seeks the strengths and vulnerabilities of each strategy across many possible future directions, facilitating both decision-making amongst strategies and emergence of robust and adaptive conservation plans. We anticipate our approach to offer an innovative framework to complement classic species conservation planning methods by reducing sensitivity to climate change uncertainty and improving the overall performance of conservation actions.}, }
@article {pmid40493289, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, X and He, Y and Liu, Y and Guan, J and Jiang, F and Gu, W}, title = {Mapping the Research Landscape of Climate Change and its Impact on Pregnancy and Neonatal Outcomes: A Bibliometric Analysis.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and global health}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {83}, pmid = {40493289}, issn = {2210-6014}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Bibliometrics ; Pregnancy ; *Pregnancy Outcome/epidemiology ; Infant, Newborn ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has emerged as a critical global health threat, with growing evidence linking environmental stressors such as heatwaves, air pollution, and temperature variability to adverse pregnancy and neonatal outcomes. However, the structure, evolution, and research hotspots within this interdisciplinary field remain insufficiently understood.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a bibliometric analysis of 1,393 English-language publications (2001-2024) retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC) using a predefined search strategy. CiteSpace was used for knowledge mapping, including co-authorship, co-citation, keyword clustering, and temporal trend analyses.<br><br>RESULTS: The number of publications increased markedly after 2017. The United States, China, and the United Kingdom were the most productive countries, with leading institutions including the University of California and Harvard University. Influential authors such as Basu R, Dadvand P, and Chersich MF shaped the field's development. High-frequency keywords included "climate change," "preterm birth," and "air pollution." Keyword clusters and citation bursts highlighted evolving themes such as oxidative stress, brown adipose tissue, and maternal thermoregulation.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive visual and quantitative overview of the research landscape linking climate change with maternal and neonatal health. The findings highlight the growing interdisciplinarity of the field and underscore the need for future research to explore underlying biological mechanisms, prioritize vulnerable populations through equity-focused studies, and inform the development of targeted climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in low-resource settings. These insights can support evidence-based policymaking and guide resource allocation to safeguard maternal and child health amid a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid40491138, year = {2025}, author = {de Oliveira Passos, L and Lopes, A and Bijos, NR and Munhoz, CBR}, title = {Predicting climate change impacts on vereda wetland plant species distribution in the Brazilian Cerrado.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcaf120}, pmid = {40491138}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The climate crisis is reshaping ecosystems globally, with wetlands, including veredas in the Brazilian Cerrado, among the most vulnerable. Despite their ecological importance, the response of vereda species to climate change remains unclear. This study assessed potential shifts in the distribution of 24 key species under two climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2061-2080 to understand the impacts on this ecosystem.<br><br>METHODS: We downloaded 19 bioclimatic variables at a 30 arc-second resolution from the WorldClim database. To avoid multicollinearity, variable selection was performed using Variance Inflation Factor. Future projections were based on the MPI-ESM1-2-HR General Circulation Model. Species distribution models (SDMs) were built using the 'biomod2' R package, incorporating nine algorithms. Model evaluation was conducted using True Skill Statistic and Receiver Operating Characteristic metrics to ensure robust predictions.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Models demonstrated high reliability, with mean sensitivity (86.83 &#xb1; 10.03) and specificity (87.59 &#xb1; 7.45). Among 24 species, 13 showed loss of suitable areas under at least one climate scenario, with northeastern Cerrado projected to experience the greatest losses, and expansions occurring along the southern Cerrado-Atlantic Forest border. Desmoscelis villosa showed the greatest losses (-25.86% in SSP2; -25.98% in SSP5), while Xyris tortula exhibited significant gains. Overlap of climatically suitable areas decreased by 1.46% (SSP2) and 0.45% (SSP5), indicating potential range shifts and fragmentation under future scenarios.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights that climate change is likely to reshape the distribution of vereda wetland species, with most experiencing a loss of suitable areas. This is particularly concerning given the ecological importance of veredas as biodiversity hotspots and hydrological regulators within the Cerrado. Integrating climate change projections with land-use and conservation strategies will be critical to mitigating these impacts and safeguarding the unique biodiversity of this ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid40489852, year = {2025}, author = {Obeagu, EI and Bolo, B}, title = {Climate change and medical laboratory operations: Impacts, challenges, and adaptation strategies: A narrative review.}, journal = {Medicine}, volume = {104}, number = {23}, pages = {e42718}, pmid = {40489852}, issn = {1536-5964}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; *Laboratories, Clinical/organization &amp; administration ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly disrupting medical laboratory operations worldwide, affecting diagnostic accuracy, infrastructure integrity, and supply chain stability. Hurricane Maria in 2017 devastated Puerto Rico, a major hub for medical supply manufacturing, leading to critical shortages of blood bags and reagents in U.S. hospitals. Rising global temperatures have also challenged the stability of temperature-sensitive reagents and biological samples, with studies indicating that a mere 2°C increase in ambient temperature can significantly reduce enzyme activity in diagnostic assays. Laboratories, particularly in low-resource settings, are struggling to maintain optimal storage conditions, raising concerns about the reliability of test results in disease diagnosis and monitoring. Extreme weather events and shifting disease patterns further compound these challenges. Flooding in South Asia has repeatedly disrupted microbiology laboratories, causing waterborne pathogen contamination and delays in infectious disease testing. In Sub-Saharan Africa, rising temperatures have expanded the range of malaria-carrying mosquitoes, increasing the demand for diagnostic services beyond the capacity of many laboratories. Supply chain disruptions due to climate-related disasters have led to prolonged shortages of essential testing materials, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic when heatwaves affected the production and transportation of medical reagents. These disruptions highlight the urgent need for climate-adaptive strategies to ensure laboratory resilience and continuity in healthcare services. To mitigate these impacts, laboratories must adopt sustainable infrastructure and operational practices. Key recommendations include transitioning to solar-powered refrigeration to prevent sample degradation during power outages, investing in climate-resilient laboratory buildings, and enhancing digital diagnostic capabilities to reduce reliance on physical sample transportation.}, }
@article {pmid40488755, year = {2025}, author = {Yehouenou Tessi, DR and Apelete, EE and Kakpo, SB and Yehouenou Tessi, RT and Çağlan Günal, A}, title = {Does climate change influence the spread of malaria in Benin? Insights from ecological niche modeling for surveillance efforts.}, journal = {International health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/inthealth/ihaf064}, pmid = {40488755}, issn = {1876-3405}, support = {//Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene/ ; //NIHR/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Malaria is a severe and endemic disease, remaining one of the most prevalent tropical illnesses and a leading cause of death among children aged <5 y. Anopheles gambiae, the primary vector of malaria in Benin, plays a critical role in its transmission. This study aims to contribute to the health protection of populations in Benin by assessing the risk of vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria, in the context of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Using the Maxent algorithm for ecological niche modeling, we mapped the distribution of A. gambiae, a highly effective vector of Plasmodium parasites.<br><br>RESULTS: Our findings revealed that high-risk areas for malaria cover nearly all departments of Benin, with the majority of southern departments-Mono, Littoral, Couffo, Ou&#xe9;m&#xe9;, Plateau and Zou-identified as high-risk zones. Projections for 2055 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios indicate a significant expansion of high-risk areas, extending to Collines and parts of Donga, Borgou and Atacora.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change is expected to exacerbate the spread of A. gambiae, increasing the disease risk across the country. These results are crucial for guiding policymakers in Benin to mitigate the current impact of malaria and implement preventative measures to address future risks.}, }
@article {pmid40487681, year = {2025}, author = {Tian, S and Wu, W and Chen, S and Li, Z and Li, K}, title = {Global mismatch between ecosystem service supply and demand driven by climate change and human activity.}, journal = {Environmental science and ecotechnology}, volume = {26}, number = {}, pages = {100573}, pmid = {40487681}, issn = {2666-4984}, abstract = {Assessing the balance between ecosystem service supply and demand (ESSD) relationship and identifying its driving factors is essential for addressing ecosystem degradation. While previous local-scale studies have highlighted climate change and human activities as critical influences, their roles at a global scale remain poorly understood. Here, we analyze the global dynamics of supply-demand relationships for four key ecosystem services-food production, carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and water yield-over the period 2000-2020. We find that ESSD relationships generally exhibit spatially high supply-low demand and quantitatively surplus characteristics. Climate change and human activity influence ESSD relationships in dual-directional pathways. Specifically, they positively affect food production and soil conservation in 80.69 % and 72.50 % of global regions respectively; while negatively influencing carbon sequestration and water yield in 76.74 % and 62.44 % of global regions respectively. Human activity primarily shapes the ESSD relationships for food production and carbon sequestration, with mean contribution rates of 66.54 % and 60.80 % respectively; whereas climate change exerts greater control over soil conservation and water yield, with mean contribution rates of 54.62 % and 55.41 % respectively. Our findings clarify the direction (positive or negative), mode (individual or combined), contribution rates, and geographic distribution of these impacts. This research closes a critical gap in understanding global ESSD relationships and provides essential insights to inform sustainable ecosystem management from local to global scales.}, }
@article {pmid40496685, year = {2022}, author = {Musa, SS and Ela, TB and Manirambona, E and Shomuyiwa, DO and Haruna, UA and Lucero-Prisno, DE and Muhammad, A}, title = {How climate change and insecurity pushed 5 million people to hunger in Chad, Africa.}, journal = {Public health challenges}, volume = {1}, number = {4}, pages = {e47}, pmid = {40496685}, issn = {2769-2450}, abstract = {Climate change and insecurity pose challenges to food security around the globe. Chad has experienced several climate changes and insecurity influences on its food security, where, approximately 5 million people were pushed into hunger in the country. Desertification, flooding, and depletion of freshwater resources have pushed the country into hunger due to their negative effect on agro-pastoral production in Chad. Insecurity due to the Boko-Haram insurgency, in particular, has impaired agriculture, which is the mainstay of the country's economy. The influx of refugees from Nigeria and Cameroon has also compounded the hunger in Chad, as the country hosts the largest number of refugees in the region. Leveraging collaboration for climate change and improving security should be a priority for Chad. Increased consideration and action in the region can facilitate focus on climate change action in the region. International and multisectoral collaboration can set the pace for revamping the present security framework. Raising climate change awareness among key stakeholders and building capacity at the national level can help mitigate the impact of climate change on food security in Chad.}, }
@article {pmid40485400, year = {2025}, author = {Johnson, RK and Goedkoop, W and Lau, DCP}, title = {Multi-Decadal Trends in Northern Lakes Show Contrasting Responses of Phytoplankton and Benthic Macroinvertebrates to Climate Change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {e70274}, pmid = {40485400}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Lakes/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; *Phytoplankton/physiology ; *Invertebrates/physiology ; Animals ; Sweden ; Temperature ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Three decades of continuous monitoring of 110 lakes across Sweden revealed significant long-term changes in physicochemical habitat and biological assemblages comprising multiple trophic levels related to climate. Mean annual air temperature increased for almost all lakes, with notable increases in the northern region. The environmental variables that showed the strongest temporal patterns were increasing water temperatures and decreasing nutrient (TP) and TOC concentrations for lakes in the north and increasing pH and TOC for lakes in the south. As hypothesized, phytoplankton and benthic macroinvertebrate (littoral and profundal) assemblages tracked climate changes directly (temperature, precipitation) and indirectly (changes in physicochemical habitat), but trends differed among the organism groups. The most pronounced changes in both magnitudes and rates of change (slopes) of the biological trends were found in the northernmost ecoregions. In these nutrient- and species-poor ecosystems, taxon richness and diversity had contrasting patterns: phytoplankton and profundal macroinvertebrates had negative slopes while littoral macroinvertebrates had positive slopes. Total phytoplankton biovolume and littoral macroinvertebrate abundance had positive slopes. Spatiotemporal patterns of phytoplankton and littoral macroinvertebrates were largely correlated with temperature and nutrients but not profundal assemblages. For lakes in the south isolating climate-induced effects was confounded by post-acidification recovery, for example, all three organism groups correlated with pH but not with water temperature. Combined results from all of the study lakes indicated habitat-specific responses of biological assemblages to long-term changes in climate and physicochemical habitat. Climate change coupled with catchment vegetation and post-acidification recovery pose heterogeneous impacts directly (temperature) and indirectly (physicochemical habitat) on lake assemblages. All three organism groups showed trends related to climate and therefore should be considered robust sentinels to gauge climate impacts directly and trophic-level effects indirectly in these climate-vulnerable ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid40484641, year = {2025}, author = {Bottery, M and Sedik, S and Schwartz, I and Hoenigl, M and van Rhijn, N}, title = {Climate change: shifting boundaries of fungal disease in Europe and beyond.}, journal = {Thorax}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/thorax-2024-222168}, pmid = {40484641}, issn = {1468-3296}, abstract = {Climate change is altering ecosystems worldwide. While shifting environmental conditions are complex, it has been hypothesised that the impact of climate change is directly leading to increases in fungal infections across the globe. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and extreme weather events are thought to be driving the adaptation of fungal pathogens to new climates, expanding their geographical range and posing a growing threat to human health and agriculture. This review highlights how climate change may impact key pathogens, including Candida auris, Candida orthopsilosis, Cryptococcus deuterogattii and resistant strains of Aspergillus fumigatus, which have emerged as significant public health concerns. Their spread is accelerated by globalisation, urbanisation and the intensifying use of agricultural fungicides, which further increase antifungal resistance. The growing prevalence of resistant strains and emergence of novel fungal pathogens is likely linked to anthropogenic climate change, underscoring the urgent need for action and for more robust data collection.}, }
@article {pmid40483768, year = {2025}, author = {Fabricius, KE and Brown, A and Collier, C and Pineda, MC and Robson, B and Uthicke, S and Waterhouse, J}, title = {The seven sins of climate change: A review of rates of change, and quantitative impacts on ecosystems and water quality in the Great Barrier Reef.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {219}, number = {}, pages = {118267}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118267}, pmid = {40483768}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {The term climate change encompasses many types of impacts and threats to the long-term outlook of coastal marine ecosystems. Based on a structured Evidence Summary methodology, this review synthesises the peer-reviewed knowledge on climate change impacts on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We summarise the observed and predicted region-specific rates of change for seven climate change factors; three representing episodic extreme weather events (heatwaves, tropical storms, and extreme rainfall events), and four chronic progressive climate change factors (rising temperatures, ocean acidification and sea level, and altered cloudiness/windiness). We extract key quantitative findings on their impacts on GBR ecosystems and associated organisms, especially coral reefs, seagrasses, mangroves and wetlands, and on GBR water quality. Quantifying GBR-wide effects requires data on their four dimensions: intensity, duration, spatial extent, and frequency. The review shows that to date, most damage to GBR ecosystems is inflicted by extreme weather events. Of the progressive climate change factors, ocean acidification is already altering some GBR ecosystem functions, potentially reaching a critical threshold within decades. The progressive climate change factors are already causing selective mortality and changes in communities. We document regional differences, and we outline the evidence of climate change impacts on GBR water quality, suggesting further cumulative effects. This review provides an overview of empirical data for modellers and ecologists, and for experimentalists to choose environmentally relevant treatment levels. Intensifying climate change disturbances increase the urgency of climate change mitigation, as well as effective local management to accelerate ecosystem recovery.}, }
@article {pmid40483426, year = {2025}, author = {Ge, J and Pan, W and Liang, X and Zhang, J}, title = {Complex psychological responses to climate change: a longitudinal study exploring the interplay between climate change awareness and climate change anxiety among Chinese adolescents.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {2139}, pmid = {40483426}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {BAA180017//The National Social Science Fund of China/ ; BAA180017//The National Social Science Fund of China/ ; BAA180017//The National Social Science Fund of China/ ; BAA180017//The National Social Science Fund of China/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; Longitudinal Studies ; Adolescent ; Male ; *Climate Change ; *Anxiety/psychology/epidemiology ; China ; *Awareness ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Adaptation, Psychological ; East Asian People ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Adolescents are increasingly recognized as important stakeholders in responding to the challenges of climate change, with their psychological responses shaping both mental health outcomes and behavioral choices. However, the intricate relationship between climate change awareness and climate change anxiety among adolescents, as significant manifestations of psychological reactions to climate change, has not yet been thoroughly investigated. Grounded in the Stress and Coping Theory, this study aimed to empirically investigate the bidirectional relationship between climate change awareness and climate change anxiety among Chinese adolescents.<br><br>METHODS: Data were collected through a three-wave longitudinal survey (2022-2024) from 426 Chinese adolescents. We employed repeated measures ANOVA to examine developmental patterns and gender differences in climate change awareness and climate change anxiety, and constructed cross-lagged panel models, along with the calculation of feedback effects, to investigate their reciprocal relationships across time points.<br><br>RESULTS: Results revealed significant increases in both climate change awareness and climate change anxiety over time, with females consistently exhibiting higher levels. Cross-lagged analyses demonstrated that climate change awareness significantly predicted an increase in climate change anxiety, and climate change anxiety, in turn, significantly enhanced climate change awareness. Furthermore, the feedback effect between climate change awareness and climate change anxiety was significant at both T1-T2 and T2-T3 intervals.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates a bidirectional relationship between climate change awareness and anxiety among adolescents, providing a theoretical framework and empirical evidence for understanding adolescents' complex psychological responses to climate change. It also presents valuable suggestions for implementing targeted mental health interventions, and climate change education.}, }
@article {pmid40481567, year = {2025}, author = {Caminade, C and Ayala, D and de Chevigny, T and Ngou, O and Tchouatieu, A and Girond, F and Yahouedo, GA and Merle, CS and Pothin, E and Diouf, I and Hakizimana, E and Noseda, V and Deuve, JL and , }, title = {Climate change and malaria control: a call to urgent action from Africa's frontlines.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {179}, pmid = {40481567}, issn = {1475-2875}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Malaria/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Africa South of the Sahara ; *Mosquito Control/methods ; *Communicable Disease Control/methods ; Anopheles ; Animals ; Mosquito Vectors ; }, abstract = {In December 2024, L'Initiative-Expertise France organized a workshop in Musanze, Rwanda, for National Malaria Control and Elimination Programmes (NMC/EPs) representatives from 19 sub-Saharan African countries. The workshop focused on surveillance, modeling, climate forecasting, and innovative control methods to mitigate climate change impacts on malaria. Participants shared challenges, experiences and best practices. Key challenges highlighted include shifts in malaria transmission seasons, disease spread to mid-altitude regions, and infrastructure damage from extreme weather. Additional factors, such as drug and insecticide resistance, the spread of Anopheles stephensi, and changes in vector behaviour, are exacerbating malaria transmission in African cities. Participants stressed the need for collaborative efforts to tackle these evolving threats. This comment reflects the expertise and insights of 19 NMCPs actively managing malaria control and aims at raising awareness, inform policy discussions, and strengthen global partnerships to address the intersection of malaria and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40481208, year = {2025}, author = {Tetteh, KKA}, title = {Climate change as a catalyst for antimicrobial resistance.}, journal = {Nature medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40481208}, issn = {1546-170X}, }
@article {pmid40480353, year = {2025}, author = {Lu, G and Wang, Z and Wang, J and Zhang, X}, title = {Transboundary Impacts of Microplastics within Planetary Boundaries: Regulation and Responses of Soil-Plant Systems under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {122080}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.122080}, pmid = {40480353}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Microplastics pollution and climate change are two critical environmental concerns today, with land serving as the primary source and significant reservoir of microplastics. According to the latest estimates, by 2050,12 billion tons of plastics will be dumped into landfills and natural environments. Microplastics, defined as particles smaller than 5 millimeters in diameter, pose an even greater threat when they break down into nanoparticles less than 0.1 micrometers, entering the environment and harming ecosystems. This study explores the interactions between climate change and microplastics pollution within soil-plant systems and their impact on planetary boundary frameworks. The research indicates that climate change exacerbates the fragmentation, migration, and ecological toxicity of microplastics through increased temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, enhanced wind strength, and rising ozone levels. Higher temperatures accelerate plastics degradation, promoting the penetration of microplastics into deeper soils and groundwater; heavy rainfall and strong winds expand the horizontal and vertical spread of microplastics; ozone increases the chemical activity on the surface of microplastics through oxidation, releasing toxic additives. These processes collectively disrupt soil structure, microbial communities, and nutrient cycles, inhibit plant growth, and threaten human health via the food chain. From a planetary boundary perspective, microplastics, as a "new entity," cross the boundaries of chemical pollution and simultaneously threaten the "biological integrity" and "land system change," creating a transboundary synergistic effect.}, }
@article {pmid40479055, year = {2025}, author = {Vogt-Vincent, NS and Pringle, JM and Cornwall, CE and McManus, LC}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change will likely outpace coral range expansion.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {11}, number = {23}, pages = {eadr2545}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.adr2545}, pmid = {40479055}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {*Anthozoa/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Animals ; Coral Reefs ; Biodiversity ; *Anthropogenic Effects ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Past coral range expansions suggest that high-latitude environments may serve as refugia, potentially buffering coral biodiversity loss due to climate change. We explore this possibility for corals globally, using a dynamic metacommunity model incorporating temperature, photosynthetically available radiation, pH, and four distinct, interacting coral assemblages. This model reasonably reproduces the observed distribution and recent decline of corals across the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean. Our simulations suggest that there is a mismatch between the timescales of coral reef decline and range expansion under future predicted climate change. Whereas the most severe declines in coral cover will likely occur within 40 to 80 years, large-scale coral reef expansion requires centuries. The absence of large-scale coral refugia in the face of rapid anthropogenic climate change emphasizes the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate nonthermal stressors for corals, both in the tropics and in higher latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid40478393, year = {2025}, author = {Duron, Y and Garcia, AJ and Juarez-Vargas, M}, title = {Climate change, cancer, and the critical importance of Latino community engagement.}, journal = {Cancer causes &amp; control : CCC}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40478393}, issn = {1573-7225}, }
@article {pmid40476929, year = {2023}, author = {Fanzo, J and Miachon, L}, title = {Harnessing the connectivity of climate change, food systems and diets: Taking action to improve human and planetary health.}, journal = {Anthropocene}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {100381}, pmid = {40476929}, issn = {2213-3054}, abstract = {With climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and ongoing conflicts, food systems and the diets they produce are facing increasing fragility. In a turbulent, hot world, threatened resiliency and sustainability of food systems could make it all the more complicated to nourish a population of 9.7 billion by 2050. Climate change is having adverse impacts across food systems with more frequent and intense extreme events that will challenge food production, storage, and transport, potentially imperiling the global population's ability to access and afford healthy diets. Inadequate diets will contribute further to detrimental human and planetary health impacts. At the same time, the way food is grown, processed, packaged, and transported is having adverse impacts on the environment and finite natural resources further accelerating climate change, tropical deforestation, and biodiversity loss. This state-of-the-science iterative review covers three areas. The paper's first section presents how climate change is connected to food systems and how dietary trends and foods consumed worldwide impact human health, climate change, and environmental degradation. The second area articulates how food systems affect global dietary trends and the macro forces shaping food systems and diets. The last section highlights how specific food policies and actions related to dietary transitions can contribute to climate adaptation and mitigation responses and, at the same time, improve human and planetary health. While there is significant urgency in acting, it is also critical to move beyond the political inertia and bridge the separatism of food systems and climate change agendas that currently exists among governments and private sector actors. The window is closing and closing fast.}, }
@article {pmid40478137, year = {2023}, author = {Noto, LV and Cipolla, G and Pumo, D and Francipane, A}, title = {Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part II): A Review of Challenges and Uncertainties in Climate Change Modeling and Impact Analyses.}, journal = {Water resources management (Dordrecht, Netherlands)}, volume = {37}, number = {6-7}, pages = {2307-2323}, pmid = {40478137}, issn = {1573-1650}, abstract = {The Mediterranean basin is particularly prone to climate change and vulnerable to its impacts. One of the most relevant consequences of climate change, especially for the southern Mediterranean regions, is certainly water scarcity as result of a reduction of surface runoff and groundwater levels. Despite the progress achieved in recent years in the field of climate change and its impact on water resources, results and outcomes should be treated with due caution since any future climate projection and derived implications are inevitably affected by a certain degree of uncertainty arising from each different stage of the entire modeling chain. This work offers a comprehensive overview of recent works on climate change in the Mediterranean basin, mainly focusing on the last ten years of research. Past and future trends on different components of the hydrological balance are discussed in a companion paper (Noto et al. 2022), while the present paper focuses on the problem of water availability and water scarcity. In addition, the work aims to discuss the most relevant sources of uncertainty related to climate change with the aim to gain awareness of climate change impact studies interpretation and reliability.}, }
@article {pmid40479486, year = {2022}, author = {Bulder, C and Todd, I and McCauley, D and Burns, MK}, title = {The influence of COVID-19 on modes of governance for climate change-Expert views from the Netherlands and the UK.}, journal = {Environmental policy and governance}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40479486}, issn = {1756-9338}, abstract = {While the world is still in the grasp of COVID-19, countries are contemplating how to get their economies back on their feet. With a unique opportunity to do so in a sustainable manner, there is an urgent need to revisit the governance of climate change. Opportunities are clearly there: the resurgence in top-down policies in the pandemic might spill-over to climate governance; green economic stimuli might cause an increase in market-based approaches; or an increased focus on solidarity, inclusion and collective buy-in may drive more inclusive network-based governance. Using the classic trichotomy of hierarchy, market and network governance, we have analysed the findings of 60 interviews with expert representatives from government, industry and third sector parties in the UK and the Netherlands. Their consideration of the key policies and measures needed to help the transition forward point towards a clear desire for a more hierarchical approach. In addition, mixing the three approaches, especially market and hierarchy, is considered the best way forward.}, }
@article {pmid40479168, year = {2022}, author = {Bernard, P and Chevance, G and Kingsbury, C and Gadais, T and Dancause, K and Villarino, R and Romain, AJ}, title = {Climate change: the next game changer for sport and exercise psychology.}, journal = {German journal of exercise and sport research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-6}, pmid = {40479168}, issn = {2509-3150}, abstract = {According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change experts, recent changes across the climate system are unprecedented, and the next decades are the most decisive in human history to drastically reduce global annual greenhouse gas emissions. This text argues that sport and exercise psychology, as a scientific discipline, needs to address anthropogenic climate change by helping athletes, sport students, psychologists, coaches, physical educators, youth, sport communities and stakeholders and all populations concerned by our field to adopt adaptation and mitigation behaviors and trigger social changes in their respective communities. We briefly present the bidirectional associations between physical activity, sport and climate change. Then, we highlight three key points about climate change: its effects on health, equity issues and behaviors change in line with currently needed climate efforts. Furthermore, we suggest a series of research questions for physical activity and sport psychology domains. Finally, we conclude by presenting a call to action.}, }
@article {pmid40477839, year = {2022}, author = {Eissa, Y and Khalil, HAEE}, title = {Urban Climate Change Governance within Centralised Governments: a Case Study of Giza, Egypt.}, journal = {Urban forum (Johannesburg, South Africa)}, volume = {33}, number = {2}, pages = {197-221}, doi = {10.1007/s12132-021-09441-9}, pmid = {40477839}, issn = {1874-6330}, abstract = {Urban climate governance on the subnational and local government levels requires multilevel governance and local autonomy. Within centralised governments, climate action becomes challenging. Moreover, in developing countries, development needs are usually prioritised, while climate action is viewed as an unaffordable luxury. In a centralised, middle-income country like Egypt, climate action is a challenge for all government levels. This research investigates the current state and the prospect of urban climate change governance on the subnational level in Egypt. A twofold methodology is used. First, through desk research, a comprehensive list of urban climate governance enabling factors was extracted. The list was used to assess the practices of 3 international case studies (Delhi, Durban, and Amman) and then refined and used to assess the first subnational level climate change strategy in Egypt. Second, semi-structured interviews were conducted with a few selected experts working on climate change and urban policies in Egypt. Two sets of recommendations were formulated to expedite urban climate change governance in Egypt, especially on the subnational and local levels. While the research focuses on Egypt, the methodology and recommendations could be adopted and adapted by local governments functioning within centralised systems.}, }
@article {pmid40476476, year = {2025}, author = {Burnier, M}, title = {Climate change and pollution: impact on blood pressure and kidneys.}, journal = {Polish archives of internal medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.20452/pamw.17032}, pmid = {40476476}, issn = {1897-9483}, abstract = {Climate change and pollution have become major burdens for human health, and they will represent a growing issue in the future if nothing is planned to limit them. Epidemiologic evidence has clearly demonstrated significant associations between exposure to extreme climatic events, such as heat stress, and pollution (air, noise or toxic substances) with the development of cardiovascular events. Indeed, climate and pollution have been shown to interfere with blood pressure regulation and to increase the risk of hypertension and hence cardiovascular complications such as stroke, myocardial infarction peripheral artery disease or heart failure. For a long time, little attention has been paid to the impact of climate change and pollution even though kidney function is very sensitive to these types of insults and mediates several of the clinical consequences of heat stress or pollution. Recently, more emphasis has been focused on the bidirectional relationship between the environment and kidney diseases. On one side, environmental change has an impact on the patterns of kidney diseases, and on the other side, kidney replacement therapies, mainly chronic hemodialysis, are responsible for substantial carbon emissions and resource depletion. The purpose of this review is to discuss these kidney issues to increase awareness of healthcare providers.}, }
@article {pmid40476298, year = {2025}, author = {Patterson, DW}, title = {Reflections on Climate Change Policy for Global Health.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {53}, number = {S1}, pages = {40}, doi = {10.1017/jme.2025.2}, pmid = {40476298}, issn = {1748-720X}, mesh = {*Global Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Health Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {This reflection considers the contribution of Prof Larry Gostin to global health law and the lessons for climate action.}, }
@article {pmid40474859, year = {2025}, author = {Cimatti, M and Mezzanotte, V and Heikkinen, RK and Hällfors, MH and Karger, DN and Di Marco, M}, title = {The Accelerating Exposure of European Protected Areas to Climate Change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {e70261}, pmid = {40474859}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {CUP: B83C22002950007//NextGenerationEU/ ; 360742//Research Council of Finland/ ; 101060429//HORIZON EUROPE European Innovation Council/ ; 358367//Strategic Research Council of Finland/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Europe ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {All ecosystems are affected by climate change, but differences in the pace of change will render some areas more exposed than others. Such spatial patterns of risk are important when assessing the continued functionality of protected area (PA) networks or planning for their expansion. Europe is undertaking an expansion of the PA network to cover 30% of its land and sea surface by 2030, but this must account for climate risk. Here, we estimate four metrics of future climate risk across Europe: local velocity, analog velocity, magnitude, and residence time, and assess the level of climate exposure of European PAs vs. nonprotected control sites. We also evaluate the intensity of climate risks on > 1000 European species of conservation concern associated with Natura 2000 sites. Our results show large spatial differences in climate change exposure across Europe, with a faster pace and farther shifts in the Boreal, Steppic, and Pannonian regions but slower changes in the Mediterranean, Alpine, Arctic, and Macaronesia regions. The magnitude of climate change was higher for the Arctic, Alpine, and Mediterranean regions, implying large local differences between present and future climate. These spatial risk patterns were largely consistent across scenarios, but with up to three times higher risk under the most pessimistic vs. the most optimistic scenario. Large variation in climate exposure for species of conservation concern was revealed, including 11 species that are highly dependent on Natura 2000 sites and predicted to experience rapid climate change. Our results provide guidance for managing European PAs and expanding their coverage by pinpointing areas offering more stable climates. We emphasize the need for connectivity across the network to support species adaptation via range shifting. This is especially the case in areas facing high climate change magnitude but low velocity, implying that climate conditions similar to current ones will be found nearby.}, }
@article {pmid40473944, year = {2025}, author = {Tang, WSW and Ho, CSH}, title = {A systematic review on the impact of climate change on occupational mental health: a focus on vulnerable industries.}, journal = {Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40473944}, issn = {1433-9285}, abstract = {AIMS: This systematic review aims to examine how climate change and its related stressors may affect the mental health of workers in industries vulnerable to climate change. The review also seeks to evaluate coping strategies used by affected workers, as well as potential interventions to mitigate and prevent these mental health effects.<br><br>METHOD: A literature search was conducted in June 2024 in databases such as PUBMED, EMBASE, PsycINFO and Web of Science, using a combination of keywords about climate change, mental health or illness, and vulnerable industries.<br><br>RESULTS: A predominance of accessed literature was related to the agricultural industry, with a minority pertaining to the aquaculture, construction and aviation industries. They suggest an increased vulnerability of workers to mental health-related problems, including increased depression, anxiety, psychological distress and suicidality in response to stressors such as increased temperatures and prolonged drought conditions. Besides socioeconomic effects resulting from reduced productivity, climate-related stressors may contribute to increased uncertainty, isolation, a perceived lack of control, and challenges to their sense of identity. Coping methods varied and influenced outcomes of mental wellbeing, with community wellbeing and social connectedness in the agricultural setting being observed to have beneficial effects on levels of psychological distress. Interventions that promoted mental health literacy, the availability of mental health first aid, social cohesion, and adaptability to climate stressors were deemed helpful.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Environmental stressors interact with mental health in an intricate manner, exerting influence on biological and socioeconomic aspects of a person's well-being. In an occupational setting, such stressors may also affect social cohesion and one's personal sense of identity or self-esteem. Building strong social networks and structures to enable self-efficacy and adaptability towards climate change may be key towards promoting mental health resilience amongst workers in vulnerable industries.}, }
@article {pmid40473810, year = {2025}, author = {Ramos Irizarry, P and Smith, DFQ and Gusa, A}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Environmental Fungi: Human Health and Fungal Disease.}, journal = {Current topics in microbiology and immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/82_2025_305}, pmid = {40473810}, issn = {0070-217X}, abstract = {Climate changes including rising temperatures and increasing severe weather events (e.g., hurricanes, flooding, and wildfires) are impacting Earth's ecosystems and increasing microbial threats to human health. Microbes in the environment, including bacteria and fungi, are adapting to new habitats and hosts in ways that may make them more disease-causing. Environmental fungi are particularly climate-sensitive, with optimal growth at cooler temperatures (25-30 °C) and with reproductive spore dispersal dependent on atmospheric conditions. While environmental fungi play a crucial role supporting plant growth and recycling nutrients in soils, some cause mild to severe infections in humans. Climate changes are expanding the geographic range of some disease-causing fungi, leading to increased fungal infections, particularly in the aftermath of natural disasters. Additionally, fungal adaptations to environmental stressors may make fungi more likely to cause disease, such as increased heat tolerance (survival at body temperature of 37 °C), or more difficult to treat, due to evolving drug resistance to environmental fungicides. Here, we explore how climate change and natural disasters impact fungal distribution, adaptation, and exposure to humans, highlighting fungal threats to human health. We propose strategies to mitigate these emerging challenges, emphasizing the collaborative and interdisciplinary efforts needed to protect human health in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid40473026, year = {2025}, author = {Langlais, C and Demarque, C and Mauduy, M and Waroquier, L and Le Moal, M and Sénémeaud, C}, title = {'Limiting climate change' or 'finding substitutes': How does action identification influence meat consumption reduction among young adults?.}, journal = {Appetite}, volume = {214}, number = {}, pages = {108167}, doi = {10.1016/j.appet.2025.108167}, pmid = {40473026}, issn = {1095-8304}, abstract = {Transitioning to plant-based diets is crucial for building more sustainable food systems and mitigating climate change. However, understanding how laypeople perceive the reduction of meat consumption and how these representations influence food preferences remains underexplored. According to Action Identification Theory, (1) people identify actions in various ways, from means to complex reasons, and (2) emphasizing practical means is a lever to reduce the negative impact of difficulty on action execution (i.e., the optimality hypothesis). In a first correlational study (N = 481), when participants were asked "what one does when limiting meat consumption?", they identified one set of means and three types of reasons: environmental, health-related, and ethical. Subsequently, although confirmatory analysis did not support the optimality hypothesis, an exploratory latent profile analysis revealed a tendency to focus on means when the action was difficult. However, this did not lead to a stronger intention to reduce meat intake, as only respondents perceiving both reasons and means exhibited greater engagement. In a second study (N = 165), the main analysis did not confirm the optimality hypothesis between action identification and difficulty at the experimental level, but an exploratory analysis indicated that depicting means (vs. reasons) could mitigate the negative effect of past meat consumption on food choices in an in-lab task. Taken together, these two studies suggest that Action Identification Theory could be a relevant framework for examining sustainable food practices. However, further research is needed to establish the effectiveness of means-focused strategies in disrupting the negative influence of habits on switching to more sustainable diets.}, }
@article {pmid40471846, year = {2025}, author = {Jacinto, S}, title = {The impact of climate change on neuroinfectious diseases.}, journal = {Current opinion in neurology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/WCO.0000000000001398}, pmid = {40471846}, issn = {1473-6551}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: COP28 Health Day demonstrated the growing global attention to climate health. The purpose of this article is to review the impact of climate change on the emergence of neuro-infectious diseases.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change influences meteorological shifts and extreme weather events which may have significant and complex effects on the emergence of neuroinfectious diseases. Particularly concerning is increasing vector borne, water borne and food borne diseases. Climate associated factors contribute to the high incidence of bacterial meningitis in the African Meningitis Belt, and expansion of viral and fungal meningitis in other regions. Increased risks to those living with HIV is a public health concern. The most vulnerable communities, especially in low and middle-income countries, will be particularly impacted.<br><br>SUMMARY: The complex effects of climate change on the emergence of neuroinfectious diseases result from consequences on ecologies, populations and health systems. The growing health burden must be addressed with a multifaceted approach to establishing climate resilient healthcare systems.}, }
@article {pmid40470842, year = {2025}, author = {Mukherjee, D and Mikhailidis, DP}, title = {From C-reactive protein to climate change: risk predictors for cardiovascular diseases beyond low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.}, journal = {Current opinion in cardiology}, volume = {40}, number = {4}, pages = {213-214}, pmid = {40470842}, issn = {1531-7080}, }
@article {pmid40468470, year = {2025}, author = {Wu, N and Xiao, Q and Liao, Z and Shi, X and Wang, J and Zhan, X and Chen, Y}, title = {Landscape Genomics Provides Insights Into Climate Change-Driven Vulnerability in Torrent Frogs (Ranidae: Amolops).}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e17807}, doi = {10.1111/mec.17807}, pmid = {40468470}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {073GJHZ2023091GC//International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences for Grand Challenges/ ; 2024YFF1307500//the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 2022YFF1301400//the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 2023YFF0805800//the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; U21A20192//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32125005//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change has caused widespread loss of species biodiversity and ecosystem productivity worldwide, with amphibians being particularly affected. Predicting the future of amphibians, a critical group for maintaining biodiversity and for balancing ecosystem structure and function, is essential for effective conservation planning in the Anthropocene. In this study, we used Amolops species as a model to assess their vulnerabilities under future climate change. Through genotype-environment association (GEA) analyses, we identified climate-associated SNPs, revealing that temperature and precipitation were key drivers for local adaptation in these species. Genetic offset analysis showed that the marginal and high-latitude populations of the Amolops mantzorum and Amolops monticola groups were at greater risk of local extinction as a result of a mismatch of genetic-environmental associations under future climate conditions. Ecological niche models predicted that, from 2011 to 2100, approximately 67% of Amolops species would experience significant habitat loss. We introduced the life strategy index (LSI) to assess species vulnerability, considering the interplays of evolution, ecology, and colonisation. Our LSI analysis showed that Amolops deng and Amolops tuberodepressus face a high extinction risk, in contrast with A. mantzorum, features strong adaptability and a low extinction risk. The LSI framework not only enables the systematic assessment of species vulnerability but also identifies key contributing factors through comprehensive evaluation across ecological, evolutionary, and colonisation dimensions, thereby facilitating the development of targeted conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40468150, year = {2025}, author = {Jamal, M and Tiantian, G and Li, F and Liu, Y}, title = {Glacial retreat and climate change: insights from remote sensing technologies.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40468150}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Glaciers and ice sheets, vital components of the Earth's climate system and crucial freshwater sources, are rapidly retreating under the influence of climate change. This study reviews the use of remote sensing technologies in monitoring these changes, highlighting tools like Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and satellite imagery from Landsat and MODIS. These technologies provide detailed measurements of ice dynamics, revealing substantial regional variability in ice loss, particularly in the Arctic and Antarctic. This study synthesizes recent data on glacial retreat, examines the impact of temperature increases and precipitation changes on ice melt, and assesses the consequences for freshwater availability in glacier-dependent regions. Case studies demonstrate the application of remote sensing in observing these phenomena, emphasizing the need for advancements in technology and international cooperation in research. The study concludes with a discussion on policy implications and conservation measures necessary to address the environmental challenges posed by glacial decline, advocating for strategic international agreements and local policies to mitigate the effects of global warming on glaciers.}, }
@article {pmid40468020, year = {2025}, author = {Diyyala, R and Wang, QJ and Mushtaq, S and Palanichamy, NV and Murugananthi, D and Geethalakshmi, V and Rajavel, M}, title = {Risk attitude and risk perceptions of climate change among Indian cotton farmers.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {19550}, pmid = {40468020}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Humans ; *Farmers/psychology ; *Gossypium/growth &amp; development ; India ; *Climate Change ; Male ; Female ; *Attitude ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Agriculture ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Perception ; Droughts ; }, abstract = {Indian farmers have been facing significant production risks that have substantially decreased their potential yield. To reduce these risks, farmers employ various tactical strategies. The choice of strategy, however, depends mainly on their risk attitude and perceptions. This study examines the factors influencing farmers' risk attitude and perceptions based on the survey of 350 cotton farmers from Virudhunagar district in Tamil Nadu, India. Risk attitude is evaluated using a Multiple Price List (MPL) experimental method, while the risk matrix is utilised to measure the risk perception of drought, uneven rainfall distribution, and pests and diseases. Logit model is applied to assess the variables associated with farmers' risk attitude and perceptions. The findings reveal that 75% of the respondents exhibit risk-averse behaviour, while only 12% display a risk-seeking attitude. The majority of respondents identify drought and rainfall as major risks compared to pests and diseases. Logit model results show that gender, education, organisational membership, irrigation access, farming experience, access to credit, contact with extension personnel, and yield loss negatively influence farmers' risk attitude. Similarly, organisational membership, a higher share of non-farm income, more farm size, irrigation availability, and credit accessibility reduce the farmers' risk perceptions. These findings help policymakers understand how local farmers perceive farm risks such as drought, rainfall variations, and pests and diseases and consider these viewpoints when developing sustainable adaptation measures. This study highlights the significance of farmer group organisations, improved extension services, and credit access in shaping farmers' risk attitude and perceptions, thereby enhancing farm productivity.}, }
@article {pmid40467765, year = {2025}, author = {Liao, J and Li, G and Zhang, S and Yang, Y and Li, Y and Dong, Z and Guo, Y and Wang, Z}, title = {Global warming exacerbates the risk of habitat loss for regional mangrove species.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {19710}, pmid = {40467765}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2024KQNCX134//the Guangdong Provincial Ordinary University Youth Innovative Talent Program in 2024/ ; 060302022312//the Guangdong Ocean University Scientific Research Startup Funding Project/ ; HNS202407//the Guangdong Provincial Field Observation and Research Station for Marine Ecosystem in Hanjiang River Estuary - Nanao Island Area Open Fund/ ; 2024R3005//he Guangdong Provincial Special Fund Project for Talent Development Strategy in 2024/ ; 2024YFD2401803//the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Avicennia/physiology ; *Wetlands ; *Ecosystem ; *Rhizophoraceae/physiology ; China ; }, abstract = {Mangroves, as a salt-tolerant evergreen broad-leaved vegetation ecosystem, are widely distributed along the coastlines of tropical and subtropical regions. In the field of ecology, scholars generally agree that climatic drivers, particularly temperature and precipitation patterns, play a crucial role in regulating the global distribution, structure, and functions of mangroves. However, there are still significant challenges in research exploring the relationship between climate and mangrove distribution. This study focused on two dominant mangrove species in the northern margin of the South China Sea: Kandelia obovata and Avicennia marina. By compiling reported data, utilizing database information, and integrating our field observations, we employed species distribution models to simulate the distribution areas of these two species and their habitat changes under global warming scenarios. Our results indicate that bio18 serves as the primary climatic factor shaping their distribution patterns. Specifically, K. obovata is primarily distributed in the Northern Hemisphere, while A. Marina exhibits a much broader distribution range, encompassing over 40 times the area of K. obovata. The niche overlap between these two species is relatively low, and global warming is further promoting the separation of their niches. Notably, the continued warming of the climate in the future is not expected to pose a significant threat to K. obovata. However, it significantly increases the risk of habitat loss for A. marina. This study underscores the urgent need to implement conservation measures for mangrove ecosystems, with particular priority given to those species that are currently experiencing or are vulnerable to habitat loss.}, }
@article {pmid40466583, year = {2025}, author = {Saputra, AA and Hasyim, UAA and Arifin, MZ}, title = {Data alone is not enough: Strengthening mental health interventions and workforce capacity amid climate change challenges in the Philippines.}, journal = {Asian journal of psychiatry}, volume = {109}, number = {}, pages = {104558}, doi = {10.1016/j.ajp.2025.104558}, pmid = {40466583}, issn = {1876-2026}, }
@article {pmid40466469, year = {2025}, author = {Molla, A}, title = {Extreme heat and human fertility: Amplified challenges in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {130}, number = {}, pages = {104158}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2025.104158}, pmid = {40466469}, issn = {0306-4565}, abstract = {Rising global temperatures and extreme heat events, exacerbated by climate change, pose critical public health challenges, with understudied consequences for human fertility and reproductive health (FRH). While heat-related morbidity and mortality have gained substantial attention, the direct and indirect impacts of thermal stress on FRH-particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)-remain poorly understood. In LMICs, socioeconomic disparities, environmental vulnerabilities, and cultural norms favoring larger families amplify risks and disproportionately burden marginalized populations. Extreme heat also reduces agricultural productivity, threatening food security and nutritional intake, which can further compromise reproductive health and fertility outcomes. This forum highlights two priorities: (1) the urgent need for interdisciplinary research linking climate science, reproductive biology, and social determinants of health to elucidate heat-FRH pathways, and (2) the development of equitable policies and interventions to mitigate these risks. Emerging evidence suggests that thermal stress can disrupt reproductive processes in both men and women, leading to reduced sperm quality in men, hormonal imbalances, and increased miscarriage risk for women. The compounded effects of extreme heat and air pollution could worsen reproductive health outcomes, especially in low-income, disadvantaged urban neighborhoods, where populations are already vulnerable to climate stressors. Without dedicated research and targeted interventions, climate change could lead to significant demographic shifts, labor shortages, and heightened maternal health burdens in vulnerable populations. This research underscores the need for interdisciplinary work that integrates climate science, reproductive health, and policy development, along with targeted public health strategies to protect FRH in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40466232, year = {2025}, author = {Hannam, JA and Keay, CA and Mukherjee, K and Rugg, I and Williams, A and Cooke, J}, title = {Changes in land capability for agriculture under climate change in Wales.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {987}, number = {}, pages = {179790}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179790}, pmid = {40466232}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Land capability assessments are key models that can identify current and future capacity of land for agricultural production. However, assessments of land capability under climate change do not fully consider climate-soil-crop interactions, are produced at scales too coarse for decision making and exclude key end users. We tackle these gaps by co-developing a predictive fine-scale spatial assessment of Agricultural Land Classification in Wales for baseline climate (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios. The findings revealed an increase in the proportion of land with better agricultural potential in 2020 (2010-2039) and 2050 (2040-2069) compared to the baseline, becoming more favourable for agriculture due to decreased soil wetness. However, by 2080 (2070-2099), there was a reduction in the proportion of higher grade and best and most versatile land for agriculture. During this period, an increase in accumulated temperature and decrease in rainfall during the growing season resulted in higher soil moisture deficits and increased risk of summer drought. We identified soil droughtiness as the most limiting factor for agricultural capability in 2080, resulting in a decrease in the best and most versatile land for agriculture (by 2 to 11% compared to the baseline). The transparency of the approach and prediction of land capabilities at local scale enabled effective policy implementation and decision making. The predicted future changes in land capability highlight that policy instruments used currently to protect high grade agricultural land should also consider the potential impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40465898, year = {2025}, author = {Pires, EDCG and Henriques, MAP and Nogueira, PJ and Arriaga, MAT and Costa, ACJS}, title = {Climate change: Nursing leadership in disaster situations.}, journal = {Revista latino-americana de enfermagem}, volume = {33}, number = {}, pages = {e4569}, doi = {10.1590/1518-8345.0000.4569}, pmid = {40465898}, issn = {1518-8345}, }
@article {pmid40465255, year = {2025}, author = {Kalmar, AF and Rex, S}, title = {Desflurane, Climate Change, and PFAS Pollution: Appropriate Metrics for Science Based Ethical Decision Making.}, journal = {Anesthesia and analgesia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40465255}, issn = {1526-7598}, }
@article {pmid40462743, year = {2025}, author = {Fernández Farnocchia, RB and Benech-Arnold, RL and Batlla, D}, title = {Maternal temperature effects on seed dormancy mitigate the negative impact of global warming on germination and population fitness.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/eraf243}, pmid = {40462743}, issn = {1460-2431}, abstract = {A negative relationship is typically observed between maternal temperature and seed dormancy at dispersal. This could affect germination timing in current and future environments given the context of global warming. We conducted field and laboratory experiments to investigate the effects of maternal temperature on the dormancy level of Polygonum aviculare seeds. Data were used to simulate the germination timing and subsequent population reproductive performance under different thermal scenarios. Increasing maternal temperature reduced the dormancy level of seeds, altered the induction of secondary dormancy, and generally increased seedling emergence in the field. Simulations for current thermal scenarios demonstrated that the effect of maternal temperature on seed dormancy could lead to changes in germination timing from year to year. For future warming scenarios, our simulations indicated that rising maternal temperatures, along with those experienced by the seed bank, could decrease the proportion of seeds capable of germinating and delay germination timing, resulting in cascading negative effects on population reproductive fitness. However, changes in the germination timing and the reproductive fitness were more pronounced when the simulations excluded the effects of the maternal temperature on dormancy level, suggesting that this modulation could play a significant role in mitigating the consequences of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid40461791, year = {2025}, author = {de Silva, S and Jacewicz, N and Kovaka, K and Ferraro, K and Callender, C and Jamieson, D and Prakash, A}, title = {Navigating synergies vs. trade-offs between climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation.}, journal = {npj biodiversity}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {22}, pmid = {40461791}, issn = {2731-4243}, abstract = {Synergies between mitigating climate change and conserving biodiversity are often emphasized in public discourse and policy, but there can be trade-offs between these aims. Where trade-offs are evident, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has emerged as a dominant approach to resolving them. We highlight limitations of this approach and propose that creating enviro-ethics committees using principles of collaborative governance would provide a practical mechanism for transparently grappling with trade-offs at various levels.}, }
@article {pmid40461609, year = {2025}, author = {Omotayo, AO and Omotoso, AB and Asong, JA}, title = {Leveraging Africa's underutilized crops to combat climate change, water scarcity, and food insecurity in South Africa.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {19404}, pmid = {40461609}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; South Africa ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Humans ; *Food Insecurity ; *Food Supply ; *Water Supply ; Agriculture/methods ; Rural Population ; Food Security ; }, abstract = {This study aims to integrate underutilized crops (UCs) into the food system to address climate change impacts, and food -water insecurity. UCs have immense potential to mitigate food shortages, yet their role remains largely unexplored in mainstream agricultural and food security strategies. A multidisciplinary approach using social psychology, resource-based theory (RBT), and a new ecological paradigm was used to investigate factors influencing UCs adoption and their potential contribution to water and food insecurity in South Africa. The water poverty index (WPI) and household food insecurity access score (HFIAS) were used to determine the water and food insecurity status of rural households. The study found that UCs cultivation was driven by awareness, access to extension advisory services, and climate information. The findings indicate that adopting UCs significantly improves water and food insecurity in South Africa. Consequently, households that integrated UCs into their farming systems experienced higher WPI scores, reflecting improved water availability and conservation, as UCs require less water than conventional crops. Likewise, lower HFIAS values suggest that UCs enhance food insecurity by diversifying diets, stabilizing food access, and reducing seasonal hunger. Statistically, households in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and North-West provinces who adopted UCs saw 25.18 (21%), 31.03 (26%), and 28.77 (24%) rise in WPI and HFIAS compared to those who did not embrace UCs, respectively. These results highlight the potential of UCs as climate-resilient crops that mitigate water scarcity and food insecurity, making them a viable strategy for enhancing rural livelihoods amid climate change. Therefore, prioritizing UCs cultivation could build more resilient agricultural systems, address water scarcity and improve food security.}, }
@article {pmid40461294, year = {2025}, author = {Nóia Júnior, RS and Asseng, S and Müller, C and Deswarte, JC and Cohan, JP and Martre, P}, title = {Negative impacts of climate change on crop yields are underestimated.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2025.05.002}, pmid = {40461294}, issn = {1878-4372}, abstract = {Crop simulation models are routinely used to project the impacts of climate change on crop yields. However, such models perform poorly when simulating extreme historical events. We reviewed current crop models according to the processes they simulate. The review suggests the inability of most models to simulate several mechanisms of adverse climatic impacts on crops, such as those caused by heavy rain and waterlogging. Current crop models are therefore likely to increasingly underestimate climate impacts on crops if adverse climate conditions escalate in frequency and severity as expected. Improved modeling is crucial to accurately project crop yields and enhance the resilience of global food systems under extreme weather.}, }
@article {pmid40460115, year = {2025}, author = {Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E and DeRepentigny, P and Frierson, DMW}, title = {Increasing boreal fires reduce future global warming and sea ice loss.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {23}, pages = {e2424614122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2424614122}, pmid = {40460115}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {2337045//NSF | GEO | Office of Polar Programs (OPP)/ ; 2213988//NSF | GEO | Office of Polar Programs (OPP)/ ; 101040858//EC | European Research Council (ERC)/ ; }, abstract = {Biomass burning can affect climate via the emission of aerosols and their subsequent impact on radiation, cloud microphysics, and surface and atmospheric albedo. Biomass burning emissions (BBEs) over the boreal region have strongly increased during the last decade and are expected to continue increasing as the climate warms. Climate models simulate aerosol processes, yet historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations have no active fire component, and BBEs are prescribed as external forcings. Here, we show that CMIP6 used future boreal BBEs scenarios with unrealistic near-zero trends that have a large impact on climate trends. By running sensitivity experiments with ramped up boreal emissions based on observed trends, we find that increasing boreal BBEs reduces global warming by 12% and Arctic warming by 38%, reducing the loss of sea ice. Tropical precipitation shifts southward as a result of the hemispheric difference in boreal aerosol forcing and subsequent temperature response. These changes stem from the impact of aerosols on clouds, increasing cloud droplet number concentration, cloud optical depth, and low cloud cover, ultimately reducing surface shortwave flux over northern latitudes. Our results highlight the importance of realistic boreal BBEs in climate model simulations and the need for improved understanding of boreal emission trends and aerosol-climate interactions.}, }
@article {pmid40458961, year = {2025}, author = {Garg, KM and Low, DHW and Lee, G and Lee, BPY and Mendenhall, IH and Rheindt, FE and Smith, GJD and Chattopadhyay, B}, title = {Hybrid genome assembly of the widespread bat Rhinolophus lepidus provides insights into susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection and climate change threat.}, journal = {DNA research : an international journal for rapid publication of reports on genes and genomes}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/dnares/dsaf015}, pmid = {40458961}, issn = {1756-1663}, abstract = {Bats are known reservoirs for many viruses of zoonotic potential and can tolerate or clear infections efficiently. They are important hosts for multiple coronaviruses and harbor ancestral lineages of coronaviruses known to cause diseases in both humans and animals. In this study, we describe a high-quality hybrid genome assembly of the Blyth's horseshoe bat Rhinolophus lepidus. It is a widespread species and an important cell-line model system for studying virus entry and replication. We used a combination of short Illumina reads and long reads from Oxford Nanopore to assemble the genome, with N50 of 5.3Mb and BUSCO score of ~94%. The ACE2 receptor responsible for the entry of SARS and SARS-CoV-2 viruses was highly conserved within bats, especially the region responsible for virus entry into the cell. 50% of the amino acids necessary for virus entry were conserved between humans and R. lepidus. We observed an effect of past climatic conditions on the effective population size with drastic population size reduction in the past 50,000 years. This study adds to the growing list of bat genomes which are important resources to understand the co-evolution of bats and viruses and the mechanism by which bats can tolerate and clear infections effectively.}, }
@article {pmid40457825, year = {2025}, author = {}, title = {Correction to "NPCC4: Climate change and New York City's health risk".}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.15382}, pmid = {40457825}, issn = {1749-6632}, }
@article {pmid40457803, year = {2025}, author = {Dhaliwal, JK and Lussich, F and Jagadamma, S and Smith, A and Saha, D}, title = {Long-term cover cropping and nitrogen fertilization impacts on net global warming potential of continuous no-till cotton cropping system.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jeq2.70046}, pmid = {40457803}, issn = {1537-2537}, support = {2021-67019-34247//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; }, abstract = {The introduction of cover crops, owing to their positive effects on soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration, is a potential management practice that can mitigate agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we leveraged a 42-year-old continuous cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) experiment under no tillage, to evaluate the effect of hairy vetch (Vicia villosa; HV) and no cover crop (NC) under N rates of 0 (no fertilizer [NF]) and 67 kg N ha[-1] (fertilized [F]), on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). The annual SOC sequestration rate was not significantly different in the F (115.1 kg ha[-1] year[-1]) and HV (107.4 kg ha[-1] year[-1]) treatments compared to the NF (103.2 kg ha[-1] year[-1]) and NC (110.8 kg ha[-1] year[-1]) treatments. Soil under HV and F treatments behaved as a net source of GHGs in 2022, with a GWP of 243 and 294 kg CO2-eq ha[-1] year[-1], respectively. By contrast, in 2023, these treatments were net sinks of GHGs. Despite the increase in cotton lint yield under legume cover cropping and N fertilization, the GHGI followed the same trend as the net GWP, being net source of GHG in 2022 and a net sink in 2023. Nearly all estimated C gains were offset by N2O emissions under these treatments in 2022-2023. Our results indicate that GHG mitigation through the adoption of legume cover cropping within cotton systems in humid subtropical climates is constrained by low soil C sequestration potential and elevated N2O emissions.}, }
@article {pmid40457138, year = {2025}, author = {Duke, DJ and Rao, L and Myatt, B and Cocks, P and Stein, S and Ong, HX and Young, P}, title = {The Role of Low Global Warming Potential Propellants on Suspension Metered Dose Inhaler Sprays.}, journal = {AAPS PharmSciTech}, volume = {26}, number = {5}, pages = {154}, pmid = {40457138}, issn = {1530-9932}, mesh = {*Metered Dose Inhalers ; *Aerosol Propellants/chemistry ; Albuterol/chemistry/administration &amp; dosage ; Aerosols/chemistry ; Administration, Inhalation ; Suspensions/chemistry ; *Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; Hydrocarbons, Fluorinated/chemistry ; Particle Size ; Chemistry, Pharmaceutical/methods ; Fluorocarbons ; }, abstract = {The reformulation of suspension-based pressurized metered dose inhalers (pMDI) with low global warming potential (GWP) propellants is challenged by wide-ranging changes to their chemicophysical properties such as vapor pressure, density and latent heat. The effect of low-GWP propellants on spray pattern and plume geometry for suspension pMDIs are not fully understood. There is a lack of data regarding the role of propellant choice and potential interactions with suspended drugs, which may explain performance variations between products and guide development of in-silico models. In this study, high speed imaging was used to measure the plume morphology and optical density of sprays containing HFA134a, HFA152a and HFO1234ze(E) propellants. Propellant-only placebo controls were compared to suspension formulations containing 2 mg/mL salbutamol sulphate. It was found that the presence of suspended particles has a significant effect on plume structure, reducing correlations between propellant thermophysical properties and cone angle, targeting angle, and optical center of mass by 6-7 times. These effects vary depending on propellant type due to variations in flash-evaporation behavior, which is less pronounced in low-GWP propellants compared to HFA134a. HFA152a sprays have a 23% reduction in Jakob number compared to HFA134a; plume width at the mouthpiece exit is commensurately increased by 40%. Equivalent HFO1234ze(E) sprays have less pronounced differences in Jakob number (13% reduced) and plume width (25% increased) compared to equivalent HFA134a sprays. Empirical models and standards which implicitly incorporate the flash-evaporation effects commonly observed in high-GWP HFA propellants may require adjustment to be suitable for use with low-GWP formulations.}, }
@article {pmid40457122, year = {2025}, author = {Kumar, R and Tiwari, S}, title = {Geospatial analysis of impact of climate change on potential habitat of Boswellia serrata Roxb. Ex Colebr in Eastern India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {7}, pages = {720}, pmid = {40457122}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; India ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Boswellia/physiology/growth &amp; development ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Understanding the response of species' habitats to climate change is vital for their conservation and management. A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change is causing contraction in plant species' habitats, leading to declines in their natural populations. Habitat modeling has emerged as a powerful tool for studying the potential response of plant species to climate change. However, most studies have focused on climate scenarios represented by the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), with very few employing the novel shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Furthermore, these studies often lack proper ground validation and fail to integrate phytosociological evaluations for gaining a better insight into plant dispersal scenarios. This study aimed to fill these gaps by integrating extensive field surveys, a phytosociological evaluation of the study area, and using SSPs as proxy pathways. We modelled the potentially suitable habitats for a threatened medicinal tree Boswellia serrata Roxb. Ex Colebr in the subtropical eastern Indian region encompassing Jharkhand. Using MaxEnt, we predicted the potential suitable habitat range of B. serrata, for the current and future climatic scenarios IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR proxied through the SSP 126, 245, 370 and 585. The study revealed that currently approximately 16,348 km[2] (~20.51% of the study region) area serves as a suitable habitat for B. serrata. However, the findings indicate an overall ~9% decline in the suitable habitat range of B. serrata by 2060 in the region, and might become locally extinct in the northeastern part of Jharkhand. These findings have significant implications for both research and practical conservation efforts, providing new insight to the distribution ecology of B. serrata, and identifying priority areas for conservation interventions.}, }
@article {pmid40456724, year = {2025}, author = {Prudhvi Guddanti, K and Chen, L and Weng, Y and Yu, Y}, title = {Vulnerability of power distribution networks to local temperature changes induced by global climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {5116}, pmid = {40456724}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {71934006//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 72140005//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate change (GCC) triggers a chain effect, converting temperature pattern changes into variations in blackout risk for power distribution grids (DGs). This occurs through GCC's impacts on electricity supply, demand, and infrastructure, which shift the DG's safe-operation boundary and power flow. This study presents a model integration framework to assess the associated blackout risk, showing that GCC raises blackout risks during peak hours by 4-6%, depending on Gross Domestic Product growth. Kirchhoff's laws amplify these effects, creating nonlinear risk trajectories. Analysis of the chain effect suggests adaptation strategies, including reshaping grid topology and pairing temperature-sensitive users with robust buses. Index-based analysis reveals that over 20% of the U.S. requires at least a 10% DG capacity increase before 2050, with six states exceeding 20%. Europe faces a more moderate impact. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to prioritize peak-load management and address nonlinear risks across regions.}, }
@article {pmid40456552, year = {2025}, author = {El-Mallakh, RS and Elsayed, OH and Shah, S}, title = {Suicide and Global Warming.}, journal = {Southern medical journal}, volume = {118}, number = {6}, pages = {355}, doi = {10.14423/SMJ.0000000000001829}, pmid = {40456552}, issn = {1541-8243}, }
@article {pmid40455428, year = {2025}, author = {Semenza, JC and Hess, JJ and Provenzano, D}, title = {Climate Change, Marine Pathogens, and Human Health.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2025.7123}, pmid = {40455428}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid40454215, year = {2025}, author = {Kitada, S and Myers, KW and Kishino, H}, title = {Hatcheries to High Seas: Climate Change Connections to Salmon Marine Survival.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {e71504}, pmid = {40454215}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {We investigated variations in the marine survival of Japanese hatchery chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) during 25 years of climate change (1998-2023). Japan is the world's largest producer of hatchery salmon and is located near the global southern distribution limit of chum salmon. Our goal was to identify local- and context-specific metrics related to the observed coastwide decline in salmon marine survival over the past 2 decades. We hypothesized multiple metrics in three categories of stressors: hatchery carryovers, ocean conditions, and predators and competitors. The hatchery carryovers are stressors related to hatchery rearing that affect survival at a different life stage. We collected, processed, and collated large publicly available datasets into a comprehensive open-access database encompassing the life cycle of Japanese chum salmon, from eggs to adult spawners. Multivariate regression models showed that associations between stressors and adult salmon return rate (marine survival) varied by coastal management region, salmon life stage, and seasonal high-seas distribution area. In the early marine life-history stage, parental egg size, and fry size-at-release had the largest positive model effects on marine survival. The sea surface temperature (SST) at the time of fry release and a predator of fry had significant negative effects. In the offshore and high-seas life stages, summer SST had negative effects, while winter SST had positive effects. Russian chum and/or pink salmon abundance had negative effects, while no effect was found for North American pink and chum salmon abundance. Generalized additive models (GAMs) identified a nationwide decline in egg size and fry size-at-release. Our study highlights the need for an experimental approach to hatchery practices, including monitoring and analyses with updated information, leading to effective management decisions and policies for future sustainability and conservation of salmon resources.}, }
@article {pmid40454193, year = {2025}, author = {Khosravi, M and Mojtabaeian, SM and Marzaleh, MA and Izadi, R}, title = {A Systematic Review of Factors Influencing the Adoption of Green Practices Within Healthcare Centers to Mitigate Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health insights}, volume = {19}, number = {}, pages = {11786302251332058}, pmid = {40454193}, issn = {1178-6302}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change globally triggers health, environmental, and socio-economic issues, leading to disasters, resource scarcity, inequality, displacement, and security risks. To address the challenges posed by climate change, green practices have emerged as a major solution. This research aimed to identify and categorize the factors that influence the adoption of green practices in healthcare centers.<br><br>METHODS: This manuscript represents a qualitative thematic content analysis conducted in 2024 that systematically scrutinized literature spanning from 2000 to 2024. Multiple databases, including PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, were utilized for the search. A quality assessment using 3 quality assessment checklists for different types of studies was conducted on the final studies, followed by a thematic analysis of the findings obtained from the systematic review.<br><br>RESULTS: Twenty-nine references were included in the study as final studies. The quality assessment of these studies delineated their acceptable level of quality and risk of bias. The thematic analysis yielded 2 main themes: facilitators and barriers to the adoption of green practices.<br><br>The study found several factors influencing the adoption of green practices within healthcare centers. Meanwhile, it was suggested that governments should collaborate with stakeholders to enforce emissions regulations, invest in clean energy, and offer financial incentives for sustainability. Technological advancements can improve renewable energy adoption; However, developing nations may struggle to integrate green practices into healthcare due to resource constraints.}, }
@article {pmid40452429, year = {2025}, author = {Xue, P and Minasny, B and Román Dobarco, M and Wadoux, AMJ and Padarian Campusano, J and Bissett, A and de Caritat, P and McBratney, A}, title = {The Biogeography of Soil Bacteria in Australia Exhibits Greater Resistance to Climate Change Than Fungi.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {e70268}, pmid = {40452429}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {4-H4T0RYS//Australian Government, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry/ ; }, mesh = {*Soil Microbiology ; *Climate Change ; Australia ; *Fungi/physiology/classification ; *Bacteria/classification/isolation &amp; purification ; *Microbiota ; }, abstract = {Soil microorganisms are crucial to ecosystem health, and their composition and distribution are shaped by a range of environmental factors. However, the effects of accelerating climate change on soil microbiomes remain under-explored. This study examines the continental-scale factors controlling soil microbiomes and evaluates their responses to climate change. We applied machine learning algorithms to analyze the distribution patterns of bacteria and fungi in 1300 Australian topsoil samples. Our results indicate that bacterial distributions align closely with the soil class map, highlighting the dominant impact of soil properties. In contrast, fungal distributions are more strongly associated with temperature gradients, emphasizing the critical role of climate. Climate projections for 2040 suggest a notable southward shift in both bacterial and fungal patterns, particularly around latitude 25° S. Moreover, our findings suggest that fungal biogeography is likely to undergo more pronounced changes, with approximately 24% of Australian topsoils expected to experience significant shifts in fungal community structure, compared to about 19% for bacteria, which appear more resistant. This study emphasizes the diverse vulnerabilities of soil microbial communities and stresses the need to account for microbial dynamics in future land use and management practices.}, }
@article {pmid40451564, year = {2025}, author = {Diogo, BS and Rodrigues, S and Speksnijder, B and Golovko, O and Antunes, SC}, title = {Chronic toxicity of antibiotics and global warming in Danio rerio: Biomarker responses and toxicological effects.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Toxicology &amp; pharmacology : CBP}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {110240}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpc.2025.110240}, pmid = {40451564}, issn = {1532-0456}, abstract = {The combined influence of multiple stress factors on natural ecosystems is a critical concern, as neglecting their effects could compromise essential biological functions. However, limited studies have explored the combined effects of antibiotics and global warming on aquatic ecosystems, leaving a gap in understanding their interaction. This study aimed to assess the toxicity of environmentally relevant concentrations of sulfamethoxazole (SMX: 150 μg/L), trimethoprim (TRIM: 30 μg/L), and their mixture (MIX: 150 μg SMX/L + 30 μg TRIM/L) on Danio rerio at three temperature conditions: standard (26 °C), moderately high (28 °C), and high (32 °C) temperatures. A multi-biomarker approach was used to evaluate the organism's biological status (e.g., antioxidant/detoxification defense enzymes, lipid peroxidation, cholinergic neurotransmission, energetic metabolism, DNA damage). Results indicated that rising temperatures influenced the toxicity level of each antibiotic differently to D. rerio. At 26 °C, all the antibiotics were marginally toxic, and major alterations were observed (oxidative stress and neurotoxicity). Increasing temperature to 28 °C, the toxicity increased, with SMX and MIX exhibiting moderate toxicity, and severe alterations (neurotoxicity and DNA damage). In contrast, TRIM showed only slight toxicity and recorded negligible alterations (antioxidant defense alterations). At higher temperature (32 °C) individual antibiotics revealed slightly toxic with negligible alterations. However, MIX at 32 °C was more toxic, and severe damage was observed (e.g., higher DNA damage). These findings reveal a pressing and alarming threat: combined contaminants impact and climate change could drive aquatic ecosystems toward collapse. Understanding how these stressors interact is critical to preventing potentially irreversible damage to aquatic life.}, }
@article {pmid40451102, year = {2025}, author = {Oliveira, AF and Marques, SC and Pereira, J and Azeiteiro, UM}, title = {Salinity and temperature influence on the early development of mysid Mesopodopsis slabberi in a temperate estuary: implications to climate change effect.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {209}, number = {}, pages = {107239}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107239}, pmid = {40451102}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {The accelerating pace of current climate change may exceed the resilience ability of many organisms, including mysids. This could lead to significant changes in maturation rates, body size, and survival, with potentially far-reaching consequences for biodiversity. To better understand the impacts of climate change in marine systems, specifically the key stressors of temperature and salinity, we studied the survival, growth rate, and overall maturation process of Mesopodopsis slabberi, from the newborn to mature stage under laboratory conditions. The conditions were manipulated to create distinct thermal and salinity stress levels, simulating different environmental scenarios. Under optimal conditions of a salinity level of 25, elevated temperatures of 26 °C and 29 °C accelerated the growth rate of juvenile organisms but also increased mortality compared to a temperature of 20 °C. Additionally, the higher temperatures resulted in earlier maturation and smaller body sizes upon reaching maturity. Under optimal conditions of 20 °C, no significant differences were observed in growth, maturity, or survival rates across varying salinity levels of 25, 30, and 35. This indicates that temperature plays a more important role in influencing growth and survival rates compared to salinity. However, salinity exerts a secondary, yet significant, modulatory effect under thermal stress. Elevated temperatures consistently reduced survival rates, though this effect was partially mitigated by higher salinity levels, indicating an interaction between these stressors.}, }
@article {pmid40450944, year = {2025}, author = {Yang, S and Gong, J and Lou, H and Gong, T and Zhou, B and Pan, Z and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Li, J and Dai, Y}, title = {Changes in the hydrological processes of glacial lake-fed rivers on the Tibetan Plateau due to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {388}, number = {}, pages = {126006}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126006}, pmid = {40450944}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {River hydrological processes in the Tibetan Plateau are highly sensitive to climate change; therefore, this region is ideal for studying climate-driven hydrological responses. The existing research on glacial lake-fed rivers is limited, due to the scarcity of hydrological observational data. To address this research gap, in this study, we focused on three river types (glacial lake-, precipitation-, and glacier-fed rivers) in the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon region in Tibet Autonomous Region, China. Rivers downstream of a glacial lake that was prone to outbursts were considered as controls. We constructed a discharge time-series dataset for the region (spanning 34 years (1990-2023)) using remote sensing hydrological station technology. The inter-annual discharge exhibited an overall increasing trend, depicting the following order: glacial lake-fed rivers < precipitation-fed rivers < glacier-fed rivers. The variations in the intra-annual discharges for the glacial lake-, precipitation-, and glacier-fed rivers were 2.5-3.5, 3-4.4, and 4.7-5.6, respectively, with glacial lake-fed system indicating the lowest fluctuation. The glacial lake-fed rivers displayed a five-stage evolution in the following order: mild increase, slow increase, significant increase, increasing decline, and mild increase. Based on the downstream hydrological patterns, the glacial-lake risk states were categorized as stable, active, or hazard states. The results demonstrated that glacial lakes exerted regulatory effects on associated downstream rivers and that the changes in their buffering capacity reflected the alterations in the downstream discharge, which was linked to floods. This work provides critical insights for glacial lake risk management.}, }
@article {pmid40450625, year = {2025}, author = {Punia, A and Singh, SK}, title = {Concurrence of mining and climate change: environmental implications and mitigation strategies.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {47}, number = {7}, pages = {241}, pmid = {40450625}, issn = {1573-2983}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Mining ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Mines degrade and contaminate environment at local or regional level posing risk to human health. However, the consequences of environmental degradation caused by mines on climate change is limited in literature. The review is carried out to understand the interplay of mines and climate change in perspective of its environmental implications. Mining and mineral processing contribute to climate change first, by emitting the greenhouse gases (GHGs) and second, by decreasing the carbon storage due to loss of vegetation cover. The increasing demand for minerals promotes the extraction of low-grade ore in extensive quantity further leading to an increase in fossil fuel consumption and GHGs emission. The decline in vegetation cover is attributed to decline of water resources, conversion of fertile land to wasteland and change in land use pattern. The variation in climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation and melting of glaciers accelerate the environmental degradation. Metal contamination due to tailing dam failure or runoff from waste dumps is expected to increase under the influence of climate change. It is difficult to quantify the role of mines on climate change considering the indirect factors such as loss of vegetation cover, acid mine drainage, quantity of waste generated and decline in water resources. The present study makes an attempt to understand the role of these indirect factors in climate change. Similarly, the contribution of mines in climate change can be reduce by replacing use of non-renewable energy with renewable energy. It would reduce carbon footprint of mines.}, }
@article {pmid40450538, year = {2025}, author = {Wu, H and Yu, L and Shen, X and Watson, JEM and Wan, H and Cao, Y and Hua, T and Liu, T and Zhao, J and Liu, J and Gao, J and Ma, K}, title = {Bridging conservation gaps under climate change at multiple scales to protect 30% of Earth's surface by 2030.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e70054}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.70054}, pmid = {40450538}, issn = {1523-1739}, support = {2022YFE0209400//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 2024YFF1307600//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 42401314//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2023M741885//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; 20223080017//Tsinghua University Initiative Scientific Research Program/ ; //the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility (EarthLab)/ ; }, abstract = {The 30×30 commitment outlined in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF) offers a critical opportunity for enhancing global biodiversity conservation. However, KM-GBF's efforts to address climate change impacts remain limited. We developed 1-km-resolution hotspot maps for climate change vulnerability with the exposure-sensitivity-adaptation framework, species distribution for 4 terrestrial vertebrate taxa, and carbon stock capacity including organic and biomass carbon, for 2030. Then, we developed a systematic conservation planning approach that, beyond the 3 conservation features mentioned, also considered human activities, connectivity, and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The plan included the identification of conservation priorities and gaps for China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations region (China-ASEAN) at regional, national, and biogeographical scales. We found that 6.59% of the land in China-ASEAN overlapped all 3 hotspots, primarily in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Cambodia. Across all 3 spatial scales, newly identified conservation priorities were concentrated in low-elevation areas, particularly between 10° S and 10° N at the regional scale. Currently, protected areas cover 15.49% of China-ASEAN's land, representing 7.00% of climate change vulnerability hotspots, 12.45% of species distribution potential hotspots, and 14.56% of carbon stock capacity hotspots for 2030. If the 30×30 commitment is realized at a regional scale, these percentages are expected to increase to 22.93%, 33.15%, and 34.75%, respectively. Areas of conservation priority identified with our framework were significantly affected by the scale of protection coordination, yet they remained stable across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, indicating their effectiveness in diverse future scenarios. The biogeographical scale had the smallest average conservation gap for all 12 countries (13.14%). Financial challenges are highest for Indonesia at the regional scale and for Malaysia at the national and biogeographical scales. Precise conservation based on appropriate scales is essential to achieving the 30×30 commitment and maximizing its conservation effectiveness under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40449471, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, S and Huang, H and Peng, D and Zhu, Y and Dong, D and Huang, H and Chu, J}, title = {Potential distribution projections of mangrove forests and invasive plants under climate change: case insights from mangrove management in Guangdong Province, China.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {218}, number = {}, pages = {118131}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118131}, pmid = {40449471}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {Mangrove ecosystems are vital for maintaining biodiversity, purifying water, sequestering carbon, and mitigating climate change in coastal regions. The geographical distribution of mangrove forests has been severely affected by global warming; therefore, it must be predicted under future climate scenarios to provide a scientific basis for conservation and restoration. In this study, we employed the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of suitable mangrove areas in Guangdong Province under current conditions and two future climate scenarios (2030s and 2090s): SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. The potential distributions of introduced mangrove plants (Laguncularia racemosa and Sonneratia apetala) were assessed to evaluate their suitability for mangrove restoration. Furthermore, we investigated the invasive potential of Spartina alterniflora, a biologically invasive species in mangrove ecosystems, under different climate scenarios. Finally, a conservation gap analysis was conducted to identify priority areas for mangrove protection. We observed the following: i) main environmental factors affecting the distribution pattern of mangroves in Guangdong Province were temperature and water quality; ii) hotspots of mangrove distribution are mainly concentrated in the Beibu Gulf coastline, Leizhou Gulf coastline, Zhenhai Bay-Dongping Harbor-Beijin Bay coastline, Zhuhai Harbor-Guangzhou Bay-Humen-Mawan Bay, Shuangyue Bay, and Rongjiang River estuary; iii) optimal zone of mangroves was the largest under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and the potential suitable zone and geometric center of mangroves gradually shifted to higher latitudes; iv) the protection and restoration of mangroves should be prioritized in the future in the zones of Anpu Harbor, Leizhou Bay, Zhenhai Bay, and Huangmaohai and coastline of Pearl River Estuary.}, }
@article {pmid40449424, year = {2025}, author = {Mengistu, TD and Chang, SW and Chung, IM}, title = {Modeling and prediction of climate change impacts on water resources vulnerability: A multi-model approach.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {388}, number = {}, pages = {126025}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126025}, pmid = {40449424}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {In a rapidly changing world, uncontrolled climate change worsens water scarcity disrupting hydrological cycles and hindering sustainable development. Addressing water resources vulnerability requires holistic approaches to better understand complex systems, mitigate risks from changing weather patterns, and develop adaptive water management strategies. In this study, we modeled climate change impacts on water resource vulnerability using machine learning (ML) and SWAT model based on CMIP6 Global Climate Model (GCMs) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP). Six ML models were evaluated to reliably predict hydroclimatic events; Extremely Randomised Trees (ERT) and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) performed best for simulating ensemble climate interactions. The statistical indicators confirmed model reliability reducing input uncertainties with bias-corrected datasets. The ensemble SWAT model simulation showed a good agreement between simulated and observed values (R[2] = 93 %, NSE = 91 %, and PBIAS = -1.08 %) for calibration and (R[2] = 94 %, NSE = 93 %, and PBIAS = -2.32 %) for validation periods. Furthermore, we developed a novel Hydrologic Vulnerability Index (HVI) framework based on water balance components to quantify watershed vulnerability dynamics across baseline and future scenarios. The HVI ranged from low to extreme, with maximum lower values (54.03 %) observed at baseline, indicating resilience to hydrological stress, and higher values indicating severe vulnerability (43.45 %) at SSP245, indicating extreme drought conditions. The HVI framework integrates climate projections with actionable insights, offering a comprehensive approach to sustainable water management, adaptive infrastructure, and targeted interventions. Hence, innovative policies are critical to address extreme HVIs ensuring resilience against water scarcity and ecosystem degradation. This study underscores the importance of coupling data-driven hydrological analysis with climate responsiveness for effective watershed and environmental sustainability. These results demonstrate the importance of integrating various perspectives and strategies to address both short- and long-term climatic problems, by employing adaptive management practices to ensure sufficient water and ecosystem resilience.}, }
@article {pmid40449351, year = {2025}, author = {Quintero-Campos, P and Salvador-Clavell, R and Martín, B and Fouz, B and Amaro, C and Tortajada-Genaro, LA and Maquieira, &#xc1;}, title = {Environmental monitoring of a climate change indicator (Vibrio vulnificus) in coastal wetland water samples based on field-deployable detection.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {986}, number = {}, pages = {179791}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179791}, pmid = {40449351}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global warming is driving rapid changes across all ecological scales, including shifts in the distribution patterns and virulence potential of some pathogenic bacteria. A relevant pathogen affected by climate change is Vibrio vulnificus, a species considered a valuable biomarker because rising temperatures and changes in salinity strongly influence its prevalence and distribution. Comprehensive surveillance at local scales is required to provide precise environmental understanding. However, current monitoring methods are often inaccessible or cost-prohibitive, highlighting the need for fast, field-deployable alternatives. This study hypothesized that combining lateral flow assay with isothermal DNA amplification can enable rapid, on-site detection with minimal instrumentation. To validate the approach, V. vulnificus was monitored in a Mediterranean coastal wetland, a sensitive ecosystem where changes impact biodiversity and may lead to waterborne diseases. The campaign was based on water sampling, an enrichment step, and a DNA-based assay integrated into a microfluidic chip. Species-specific vvhA gene was amplified through recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA), detected on a lateral flow strip, and quantified by a smartphone. The monitoring campaign identified locations within the wetland exhibiting a significant increase in bacterial concentrations, up to 300 times, depending on the sampling site. The bacterium was detected in brackish water areas and inflow/outflow points, showing excellent performance. These promising results suggest that the new procedure can help detect microenvironments that favor or inhibit bacterial growth. The surveillance strategy could be effectively applied on a global scale to assess risks, examine variations associated with climate change, and implement measures against Vibrio infections.}, }
@article {pmid40446039, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, Z and Yang, C and Sahy, D and Zhan, RB and Wu, RC and Li, Y and Deng, Y and Huang, B and Condon, DJ and Rong, J and Li, XH}, title = {Tempo of the Late Ordovician mass extinction controlled by the rate of climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {11}, number = {22}, pages = {eadv6788}, pmid = {40446039}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The Late Ordovician mass extinction (LOME) included two phases (I and II) of high species turnover that have been hypothetically linked to the Hirnantian glaciation and subsequent rapid warming, respectively. However, the timing and tempo of the LOME remain uncertain, which hinders our understanding of the feedback between the LOME and paleoclimatic change. Here, we present high-precision radioisotopic dates for the Ordovician-Silurian transition in South China that reveal the LOME began at 442.76 + 0.35/-0.22 million years ago, with the two phases lasting for 0.34 + 0.46/-0.34 and 0.06 + 0.31/-0.06 million years, respectively. The rapid switch from icehouse to greenhouse conditions, along with the higher mean rate of temperature change during LOME II, resulted in a much higher mean extinction rate during LOME II than I (71.6% versus 8.4% species loss per 100 thousand years, respectively), implying that the rate of climate change was a primary control on the tempo of the LOME.}, }
@article {pmid40445075, year = {2025}, author = {}, title = {Correction to "Ocean Iron Fertilization May Amplify Climate Change Pressures on Marine Animal Biomass for Limited Climate Benefit".}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {e70273}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.70273}, pmid = {40445075}, issn = {1365-2486}, }
@article {pmid40444110, year = {2024}, author = {Agache, I and Akdis, C and Akdis, M and Al-Hemoud, A and Annesi-Maesano, I and Balmes, J and Cecchi, L and Damialis, A and Haahtela, T and Haber, AL and Hart, JE and Jutel, M and Mitamura, Y and Mmbaga, BT and Oh, JW and Ostadtaghizadeh, A and Pawankar, R and Prunicki, M and Renz, H and Rice, MB and Filho, NAR and Sampath, V and Skevaki, C and Thien, F and Traidl-Hoffmann, C and Wong, GWK and Nadeau, KC}, title = {Immune-mediated disease caused by climate change-associated environmental hazards: mitigation and adaptation.}, journal = {Frontiers in science}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40444110}, issn = {2813-6330}, support = {U19 AI104209/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; U01 AI147462/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES000002/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P01 HL152953/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; R01 ES032253/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P01 AI153559/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; U19 AI167903/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Global warming and climate change have increased the pollen burden and the frequency and intensity of wildfires, sand and dust storms, thunderstorms, and heatwaves - with concomitant increases in air pollution, heat stress, and flooding. These environmental stressors alter the human exposome and trigger complex immune responses. In parallel, pollutants, allergens, and other environmental factors increase the risks of skin and mucosal barrier disruption and microbial dysbiosis, while a loss of biodiversity and reduced exposure to microbial diversity impairs tolerogenic immune development. The resulting immune dysregulation is contributing to an increase in immune-mediated diseases such as asthma and other allergic diseases, autoimmune diseases, and cancer. It is now abundantly clear that multi-sectoral, multidisciplinary, and transborder efforts based on Planetary Health and One Health approaches (which consider the dependence of human health on the environment and natural ecosystems) are urgently needed to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change. Key actions include reducing emissions and improving air quality (through reduced fossil fuel use), providing safe housing (e.g., improving weatherization), improving diets (i.e., quality and diversity) and agricultural practices, and increasing environmental biodiversity and green spaces. There is also a pressing need for collaborative, multidisciplinary research to better understand the pathophysiology of immune diseases in the context of climate change. New data science techniques, biomarkers, and economic models should be used to measure the impact of climate change on immune health and disease, to inform mitigation and adaptation efforts, and to evaluate their effectiveness. Justice, equity, diversity, and inclusion (JEDI) considerations should be integral to these efforts to address disparities in the impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40443437, year = {2025}, author = {Fan, L and Mi, C and Li, J and Zhang, Y and Zhang, H and Zhang, G and Wang, H}, title = {Projecting global shifts in the invasive potential of Bidens pilosa L. under climate change using species distribution models.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1580278}, pmid = {40443437}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Invasive species pose significant threats to ecosystems by reducing biodiversity, introducing new diseases, and competing with native species for resources. Bidens pilosa L., a globally invasive weed originating in tropical America, severely impacts agricultural productivity by infesting 31 economically vital crops across over 40 countries. This study examined the global distribution of Bidens pilosa L., under current and future climate scenarios. Using species distribution models and occurrence data, we identified key factors influencing its spread, including temperature, precipitation, and human influence. Our findings suggest a likely decline of suitable habitats in tropical regions and an expansion into temperate regions, with climate suitability decreasing under higher temperatures. Additionally, historical reconstructions emphasize that the rapid spread of the species was facilitated by maritime trade routes. Management strategies are proposed that emphasize the need for enhanced control measures in high-risk areas and conservation efforts in its native range in tropical America. Overall, this research contributes to understanding the dynamics of B. pilosa distribution and informs proactive management strategies to mitigate its ecological and economic impacts.}, }
@article {pmid40442223, year = {2025}, author = {Baranowska, M and Łukowski, A and Korzeniewicz, R and Kowalkowski, W and Dylewski, &#x141;}, title = {Predicting parasitic plants Loranthus Europaeus range shifts in response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {18932}, pmid = {40442223}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Quercus/parasitology ; *Loranthaceae/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; }, abstract = {Climate change significantly influences the distribution of parasitic species, posing threats to ecosystems and economies. This study examines the potential range expansion of Loranthus europaeus, a parasitic plant impacting European forestry. We assessed the impact of predicted climate change for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 using MaxEnt modeling based on current occurrence data of L. europaeus, and the main host plant genus oak Quercus, as well as bioclimatic variables. Our model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.92). The most important variables for Europe range were range of Quercus genus. Key environmental factors included isothermality (bio3) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8). Under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, our results predict significant range expansions into northern and eastern Europe, with increases of 43.5% and 53.9% by 2041-2060. Conversely, southern Europe may see contractions of 16.4-20.6%. Projections for 2061-2080 indicate further expansions up to 65.8% in northern Europe, alongside contractions up to 29.8% in southern regions, including Turkey and Greece.These shifts highlight the influence of climate change on L. europaeus distribution and underscore the need for adaptive management strategies to mitigate potential ecological and economic impacts.}, }
@article {pmid40440854, year = {2025}, author = {Karlsson, MB and Kamp, A and Thomsen, TP}, title = {Uncertainty in climate change impacts in Danish straw and digestate pyrolysis systems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {985}, number = {}, pages = {179768}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179768}, pmid = {40440854}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {With increasing political ambitions for biomass pyrolysis as a climate change mitigation tool in the Danish agricultural sector, a deeper understanding of the range of expected climate impacts related to deployment of the technology is necessary. Straw and manure-based digestate are currently the main feedstocks in focus for large scale Danish biomass pyrolysis. Existing climate impacts assessments of straw and digestate biomass pyrolysis are limited and no extensive assessment of uncertainty in these systems has been performed. In this study, a climate change impact assessment of straw and digestate pyrolysis in a Danish context is performed with focus on uncertainty ranges in results. Results show that systems with biomass pyrolysis potentially provide climate benefits comparted to reference management of straw and digestate in the ranges -1118 (-972 to -1264) and - 42 (-10 to -76) kg CO2e with GWP100 per ton wet feedstock, respectively. The approach applied to assess uncertainty in this study allows for detailed understanding of the driving mechanisms of climate impacts in the modelled systems. While the relative uncertainty in straw pyrolysis net impact is low, relative digestate pyrolysis net impact uncertainty is substantial. The digestate dewatering process and storage methane emissions are the main sources of uncertainty and are the primary areas with potential for optimization. The results indicate a substantial improvement potential for full system optimization. Efficient harvesting of dry matter and carbon for pyrolysis in dewatering is critical while ensuring that benefits are not offset by increased storage emissions from the resulting liquid fraction.}, }
@article {pmid40439503, year = {2025}, author = {Elson, H and Lever, G}, title = {The role of resident doctor sustainability leads in tackling climate change: an editorial.}, journal = {Postgraduate medical journal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/postmj/qgaf078}, pmid = {40439503}, issn = {1469-0756}, }
@article {pmid40439315, year = {2025}, author = {Cagnola, JI and Rotili, DH and Otegui, ME and Casal, JJ}, title = {50 years of breeding to improve yield: how maize stands up to climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {380}, number = {1927}, pages = {20240250}, pmid = {40439315}, issn = {1471-2970}, support = {//Fondo para la Investigaci&#xf3;n Cient&#xed;fica y Tecnol&#xf3;gica/ ; //Secretar&#xed;a de Ciencia y T&#xe9;cnica, Universidad de Buenos Aires/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Zea mays/genetics/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Plant Breeding ; *Crops, Agricultural/genetics/growth &amp; development ; Europe ; North America ; South America ; China ; }, abstract = {Despite significant advancements in agricultural practices, the challenge of increasing crop yields has intensified owing to the escalating impacts of global climate change. This article examines the implications for climate change adaptation of the genetic improvements that have enhanced the ability of maize crops to capture sunlight energy (interception efficiency), convert captured energy into biomass (radiation-use efficiency) and allocate dry matter to grain production (harvest index), driving substantial increases in maize grain yields over the past five decades. We focus on the following four major maize-producing regions: North America, South America, continental Europe and Northeast China. Our analysis reveals that historical advancements have resulted in traits that confer general stability against stress, providing a solid foundation for adapting to the anticipated climatic scenario. While improvements in plant architecture, grain partitioning and tolerance to biological stress offer a broader range of adoptable options, new breeding efforts will be essential. These efforts will require adjustments of the crop cycles to elude stress and the development of cultivars with enhanced tolerance to multiple, simultaneous stresses.This article is part of the theme issue 'Crops under stress: can we mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and launch the 'Resilience Revolution'?'.}, }
@article {pmid40439309, year = {2025}, author = {Nakashima, K and Yamaguchi-Shinozaki, K and Shinozaki, K}, title = {Transcriptional gene network involved in drought stress response: application for crop breeding in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {380}, number = {1927}, pages = {20240236}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2024.0236}, pmid = {40439309}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Crops, Agricultural/genetics/physiology ; *Stress, Physiological/genetics ; *Gene Regulatory Networks ; *Plant Breeding ; *Arabidopsis/genetics/physiology ; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; }, abstract = {The rapid increase in greenhouse gases has accelerated global warming, causing significant issues related to climate change, biodiversity and agriculture and adversely affecting crop production and food supply. The molecular and physiological mechanisms by which plants respond to abiotic stresses such as drought, cold and heat are well understood, according to advances in transcriptome analyses. These studies underscore the critical role of transcriptional regulation in managing drought stress and developing tolerance in Arabidopsis and other plants. Key genes, including those encoding transcription factors, protein kinases and other regulatory proteins, play essential roles in the cellular and molecular responses to drought. At the onset of drought stress, dehydration-induced signals relay to the nucleus, triggering the transcription of stress-related genes to cope with water deficit. Both abscisic acid (ABA)-dependent and ABA-independent regulatory mechanisms have been explored in these responses. Furthermore, many drought-inducible genes have been shown to increase stress tolerance via transgenic methods. The use of insights from Arabidopsis is vital for advancing crop breeding through the use of genetic modification technologies and genome editing. Recent advances in genomic technologies have provided critical data for crop genotyping, serving as essential platforms.This article is part of the theme issue 'Crops under stress: can we mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and launch the 'Resilience Revolution'?'.}, }
@article {pmid40439296, year = {2025}, author = {Mittler, R and Karlova, R and Bassham, DC and Lawson, T}, title = {Crops under stress: can we mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and launch the 'Resilience Revolution'?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {380}, number = {1927}, pages = {20240228}, pmid = {40439296}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural/physiology/growth &amp; development ; *Stress, Physiological ; *Agriculture ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering our environment, subjecting multiple agroecosystems worldwide to an increased frequency and intensity of abiotic stress conditions such as heat, drought, flooding, salinity, cold and/or their potential combinations. These stresses impact plant growth, yield and survival, causing losses of billions of dollars to agricultural productivity, and in extreme cases they lead to famine, migration and even wars. As the rate of change in our environment has dramatically accelerated in recent years, more research is urgently needed to discover and develop new ways and tools to increase the resilience of crops to different stress conditions. In this theme issue, new studies addressing the molecular, metabolic, and physiological responses of crops and other plants to abiotic stress challenges are discussed, as well as the potential to exploit these mechanisms in biotechnological applications aimed at preserving and/or increasing crop yield under our changing climate conditions.This article is part of the theme issue 'Crops under stress: can we mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and launch the 'Resilience Revolution'?'}, }
@article {pmid40437426, year = {2025}, author = {Huang, W and Yin, L and Li, H and Yang, W and Huang, S and Wang, L and Wang, K and Hao, Y and Wu, Q and Liu, H}, title = {Impact of temperature variations on burden of lower respiratory infections under climate change (1990-2021).}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {1972}, pmid = {40437426}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {72361137562//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 72304079//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology/mortality ; *Climate Change ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Aged ; Male ; Adolescent ; Female ; Infant ; Global Burden of Disease/trends ; Young Adult ; *Temperature ; Global Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Health Status Disparities ; Infant, Newborn ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the global burden and trends of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) attributable to non-optimal temperatures between 1990 and 2021, focusing on age, period, and cohort effects as well as health inequalities to inform targeted public health policies.<br><br>METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database, we obtained the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life-years rate (ASDR) for LRIs related to non-optimal temperatures. We calculated estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) to assess LRIs burden trends and applied age-period-cohort modeling to quantify age, period, and cohort effects. Health inequalities were evaluated using the slope index of inequality and the concentration index.<br><br>RESULTS: In 2021, the highest ASDR for LRIs due to high temperatures occurred in children under 5 (347.66/100,000), whereas the highest ASMR for LRIs due to low temperatures occurred in adults aged&#x2009;&#x2265;&#x2009;65 (338.49/100,000). Globally, the LRIs burden from non-optimal temperatures declined (EAPC: ASMR&#xa0;-2.48; ASDR&#xa0;-3.33). However, among the five climate zones, the LRIs burden in the boreal zone due to high temperatures increased (EAPC: ASMR&#xa0;24.14; ASDR&#xa0;45.14), whereas all other climate zones showed decreasing trends. In lower Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions, the high-temperature-related LRIs burden was more pronounced. Relative inequities driven by non-optimal temperatures worsened in low-SDI regions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of LRIs attributable to non-optimal temperatures declined overall; however, high-temperature-related LRIs increased in boreal zones. These health inequalities underscore the urgent need for targeted climate adaptation policies, such as providing international assistance, improving infrastructure, offering healthcare resources, and promoting vaccine coverage, particularly for vulnerable populations in low-SDI regions and boreal zones.}, }
@article {pmid40437248, year = {2025}, author = {}, title = {The perfect storm for dust storms, thanks to global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40437248}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid40437204, year = {2025}, author = {Cohen, JM and Jetz, W}, title = {Geographic redistributions are insufficient to mitigate exposure to climate change in North American birds.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40437204}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {80NSSC17K0282//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; 80NSSC17K0282//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; DEB-1441737//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {As climate change accelerates, many species must move poleward or upslope to conserve their environmental niches and limit their exposure. While such geographic redistributions have been extensively reported, an assessment of species' success in limiting their exposure to novel conditions is missing. Here we report on a method to account for biases in tens of millions of species observations and evaluate how 406 bird species native to the United States and Canada have mitigated their environmental niche loss using geographical redistribution. We find that most redistributions have only been partially effective at mitigating exposure to climate change. Over 20 years, species, on average, have redistributed their summertime ranges by ~0.64° north, averting their expected exposure to warming by ~1.28 °C, which is roughly half the warming they would have experienced if they had remained stationary. Meanwhile, species have only mitigated ~0.47 °C (11% of expected warming) in winter, and nearly all have experienced warming of >2 °C. Species moving the farthest north and possessing traits associated with dispersal have succeeded most in limiting their niche loss. Species' historical niches are becoming increasingly mismatched with contemporary climates, even in a highly mobile taxon, raising concerns about the ability of other wildlife to persist in a warmer world.}, }
@article {pmid40435726, year = {2025}, author = {Fuerst, A and Shukla, S and Boz, Z}, title = {Field-to-farm redesign for tomato production to economically mitigate climate change and improve water sustainability.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {985}, number = {}, pages = {179620}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179620}, pmid = {40435726}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {We present a combination of field-scale sustainable intensification and end-of-farm circular practices to economically mitigate climate change and improve water sustainability of fresh tomato farms. The field-scale practices redesign the conventional geometry of plasticulture to a compact bed (2-10 cm taller, 10-35 cm narrower) to increase input use efficiency. Life cycle assessment showed that compact bed geometry reduced GHG emissions by 6.7 %-11.4 %, and reduced input costs by 5.7 %-12.0 % per kg tomato. The reduced width from compact beds creates extra space between beds allowing more tomato per area, intensifying the system. The intensified field design reduced the GHG emissions by 2.5 % for all bed geometries, with no impact on costs, while increasing land productivity by 15 %. To increase the nutrient circularity of the system, biomass from the end-of-farm detention ponds can be harvested, composted, and applied to the fields as an organic amendment, termed harvesting-composting. Harvesting-composting decreased GHG emissions by 4-21 %, depending on the vegetation. When compact beds, intensified field design, and harvesting-composting are combined, this intensified-circular system reduces GHG emissions by up to 32 % enabling the fresh tomato industry to meet 72 % of the 2030 US GHG reduction target and 75 % of the 2030 target set by the Paris Climate Accord. The intensified system reduces irrigation volume though increased use efficiency while reducing runoff/drainage volume by decreasing the plastic-covered impervious area. When circularity is added, it increases the treatment of nitrogen and phosphorus before leaving the farm. To enable the adoption of the intensified-circular system, payments for environmental services for improving water quality, sequestering carbon, and producing more sustainable products were evaluated, and all but the carbon-based payment was significant enough to be economically feasible. The intensified-circular system has the potential to reduce 47,530 Mt. of CO2eq and increase farm revenue up to $186 million per year for the US tomato industry.}, }
@article {pmid40435226, year = {2025}, author = {Khabour, MO and Tarabsheh, OO and Al-Zu'bi, BM and Khabour, OF and Saadeh, R}, title = {Knowledge and attitudes of medical students towards the health impact of climate change: A study from Jordan.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {e0324943}, pmid = {40435226}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Students, Medical/psychology ; Female ; *Climate Change ; Jordan ; Male ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Adult ; Young Adult ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Studies have reported a strong relationship between climate change and human health. Medical students' knowledge and attitudes toward the impact of climate change on health are crucial to fostering their environmental stewardship. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the awareness and attitudes of medical students in Jordan toward climate change and human health. The study was cross-sectional in design, anonymous, self-reported, and used a closed-ended questionnaire. The study included 837 students from various medical specialties, including medicine, dentistry, applied medical sciences, pharmacy, and nursing. Statistical analysis involved cross-tabulations and regression analysis. About 46.3% of students reported good awareness of the health impacts of climate change, while 44.8% reported somewhat awareness. This awareness was found to be associated with female gender (P = 0.003) and university level (P < 0.001). In addition, students showed a positive attitude toward the importance of climate change to human health (attitude score = 19.7 out of 24), including the integration of climate change into university curricula. The internet (88.9%) and social media (86.5) were the major sources of information reported by students about climate change. Climate change related illnesses reported by students included air quality/respiratory illnesses, extreme weather-related illnesses, infectious disease outbreaks, physical inactivity, and mental health. In conclusion, medical students in Jordan have an acceptable level of knowledge and positive attitudes toward climate change. This could be improved through interventions that integrate climate change into university curricula.}, }
@article {pmid40435039, year = {2025}, author = {Silva, END and Barreto, JOM and Martins, MAP and Araújo, WN and Galvão, TF}, title = {Climate change: a priority agenda for health services.}, journal = {Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil}, volume = {34}, number = {}, pages = {e20252001}, pmid = {40435039}, issn = {2237-9622}, }
@article {pmid40434996, year = {2025}, author = {Paudel, BR and Subedi, CK and Ghimire, SK and Pyakurel, D and Rajbhandari, M and Chaudhary, RP}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the distribution pattern of Himalayan Rhubarb (Rheum australe D. Don) in Nepal Himalaya.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {e0323755}, pmid = {40434996}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Nepal ; *Rheum/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Plants, Medicinal/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {While there has been substantial consensus that climate change poses a severe threat to the Himalayan biota; we still lack comprehensive data on the potential impact of climate change on the important Himalayan medicinal plants connected with the livelihood of local people and the national economy. In this study, using MaxEnt, we modelled the distribution pattern of Rheum australe, a medicinal plant prioritized by the Government of Nepal for the nation's economic prosperity, for the current as well as all four future projections (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) to all the data available periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). In addition, we performed spatial overlay analysis to identify the optimum zones that could be developed as potential planting/conservation sites for R. australe in any of the projected future climate scenarios. Our results revealed that the suitability area of R. australe is expected to contract in all the scenarios and periods with a significant loss expected to occur in SSP585 for 2081-2100. On the individual district level, northwestern districts are expected to have a huge loss of suitable habitats in the future, while four districts: Jumla, Kalikot, Dolpa, and Jajarkot of the Karnali Province are expected to gain suitable habitats remarkably. Therefore, we suggest that the forests and rangelands of the four districts at an elevation range of 3300 m - 4,400 m could be developed as potential planting areas for commercial cultivation/for establishing genetic resource conservation centres. This finding thus has wider policy implications for both government and conservation organizations.}, }
@article {pmid40434952, year = {2025}, author = {McCorriston, J and Ball, L and Harrower, MJ and Hamilton, IM and Ivory, SJ and Senn, MJ and Steimer-Herbet, T and Buffington, AF and Al-Kathiri, AA and Al-Mahri, AM}, title = {South Arabia's prehistoric monument landscape shows social resilience to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {e0323544}, pmid = {40434952}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Archaeology ; *Climate Change/history ; Humans ; History, Ancient ; Oman ; }, abstract = {In arid regions across northern Africa, Asia and Arabia, ancient pastoralists constructed small-scale stone monuments of varying form, construction, placement, age, and function. Classification studies of each type have inhibited a broader model of their collective and enduring role within desert socio-ecosystems. Our multivariate analysis of 371 archaeological monuments in the arid Dhofar region of Oman identifies environmental and cultural factors that influenced variable placement and construction across a 7000-year history. Our results show that earlier monuments were built by larger, concurrent groups during the Holocene Humid Period (10,000-6000 cal BP). With increasing aridification, smaller groups constructed monuments and eventually switched to building them in repetitive visits. Our model emphasizes the core role of monuments as a flexible technology in social resilience among desert pastoralists.}, }
@article {pmid40434416, year = {2025}, author = {Smith, R and Booker, D}, title = {Shifts in Environmental Targets for Managing Fine Sediment in Rivers Are Anticipated Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40434416}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Targets for attribute states indicating freshwater ecosystem health are often set to help manage local activities without accounting for climate driven impacts, despite climate being a known driver of the attribute. A key challenge is anticipating how environmental attributes and corresponding target attribute states will respond to climate change alongside impacts of local anthropogenic activities. We present a method to predict climate-driven shifts in target attribute states for suspended and deposited fine sediment, as specified in existing environmental policy for Aotearoa-New Zealand. The policy uses a river environment classification derived from climate, topography, and geology inputs to determine spatially-distributed target attribute states. We calculated and mapped class membership of the classification and resulting target attribute states for future climate scenarios from regional projections. Apparent spatial patterns in shifts to warmer and drier climate classes are anticipated for a considerable proportion of river segments under the highest future emissions scenario towards the end of century. Climate-driven shifts in class membership led to shifted target attribute states corresponding to either increased or decreased sediment targets depending on location, and the emergence of conditions that have no specified environmental targets because they fall outside of existing classes. Findings highlight the potential impact of climate change upon both target attribute states and actual fine sediment states which should be considered when devising environmental classifications and setting target attribute states. Our method offers a practical approach to anticipate climate-driven impacts on any environmentally-driven spatial classification used to derive management units and target attribute states.}, }
@article {pmid40434281, year = {2025}, author = {Doshi, SM and Dalby, A and Jaggi, P}, title = {Survey of Pediatric Infectious Diseases Providers on Healthcare Sustainability and Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jpids/piaf038}, pmid = {40434281}, issn = {2048-7207}, }
@article {pmid40433795, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, D and Zhang, C and Ogaya, R and Acil, N and Pugh, TAM and Domene, X and Zhang, X and Fang, Y and Yang, X and Essl, F and Dullinger, S and Peñuelas, J}, title = {World-wide impacts of climate change and nitrogen deposition on vegetation structure, composition, and functioning of shrublands.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.70235}, pmid = {40433795}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {AGAUR2023CLIMA00118//Catalan government grant/ ; 340744//Research Council of Finland/ ; M2714-B29//FWF Austria Science Fund/ ; I5825//FWF Austria Science Fund/ ; 758873//the European Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Environmental changes and their effects are among the most pressing topics of today's ecological research. Shrublands, although widespread across the globe, remain understudied in this respect. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 81 shrubland sites subjected to experimental warming, shifts in precipitation (e.g. increased precipitation and drought), and nitrogen addition to quantify seven types of vegetation responses, including density and cover, species diversity, shrub proportion, and ecosystem functions. Our results indicated that the magnitude of responses varied depending on the vegetation metrics and treatment conditions. Specifically, aboveground biomass (AGB) was most sensitive to warming, increased precipitation, and nitrogen addition, while density was most responsive to drought treatment. Short-term treatments (1-5 yr) generally elicited stronger responses than long-term ones (> 5 yr), particularly under drought. High sensitivity to changes in climate and nitrogen addition was observed at extremely arid sites (aridity index < 0.2), and water availability strongly mediated sensitivity variation. Surprisingly, many vegetation metrics revealed no association between sensitivity variability and site water availability. Our research offers a global perspective on shrubland vegetation responses to environmental changes, highlighting the importance of water availability in sustaining shrubland biodiversity and functioning under future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid40433438, year = {2025}, author = {Shrivastava, SR and Bobhate, PS and Kukde, M}, title = {Oral Health and Climate Change: Working Toward Adaptive Strategies to the Changing Environment.}, journal = {Journal of International Society of Preventive &amp; Community Dentistry}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {192-195}, pmid = {40433438}, issn = {2231-0762}, abstract = {Climate change has been acknowledged as one of the current's century most significant global public health challenges. Climate change has resulted in a multifaceted impact on oral health, including the exacerbation of periodontal diseases, enamel erosion, and the increased risk of oral cancers. At the policy level, oral healthcare initiatives should be incorporated into climate adaptation strategies. Key recommendations include promoting climate-resilient dental practices (like mobile clinics and tele-dentistry), integrating sustainable oral healthcare practices, and advocating for water conservation. To summarize, these findings offer a blueprint to mitigate oral health disparities and augment the resilience of dental care systems, emphasizing the linkages between environmental policies and oral health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid40432781, year = {2025}, author = {Qiu, M and Chen, D and Kelp, M and Li, J and Huang, G and Yazdi, MD}, title = {The rising threats of wildland-urban interface fires in the era of climate change: The Los Angeles 2025 fires.}, journal = {Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))}, volume = {6}, number = {5}, pages = {100835}, pmid = {40432781}, issn = {2666-6758}, }
@article {pmid40432167, year = {2025}, author = {Gulcebi, MI and Gavas, S and Sisodiya, SM}, title = {Medications, epilepsy and climate change: Added layers of complexity.}, journal = {British journal of clinical pharmacology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/bcp.70108}, pmid = {40432167}, issn = {1365-2125}, abstract = {Climate change-the global crisis with pervasive health impacts-has adverse consequences for people with epilepsy (PWE) who have low quality of life due to poor seizure control, socioeconomic disadvantages and comorbidities. This review focuses on the potential effects of climate change on the pharmacological characteristics of antiseizure medications (ASMs), antipsychotics and antidepressants. We note that findings particularly obtained from physicochemical stability studies have been demonstrated experimentally for some specific environmental conditions whereas studies for clinical outcome effects are very limited. Carbamazepine, valproate, phenytoin or lorazepam appear to be ASMs at risk of being affected by high temperature and/or humidity. Even the stability of blood samples needs to be considered during transportation to therapeutic drug monitoring units, particularly for the PWE living in low-income countries that are facing the most challenges of climate change effects attributed to low infrastructure and healthcare system capacity. We need more urgent research investigating drug responses of PWE regarding especially the effects of adverse weather events such as heatwaves on physicochemical stability or pharmacokinetics of drugs in a complex interaction with the vulnerabilities of individuals, accompanying neuropsychiatric disorders and geographical challenges. Then we will be able to develop pharmacological treatment strategies to improve the quality of life of PWE during adverse weather events.}, }
@article {pmid40431011, year = {2025}, author = {Li, L and Jia, Z and He, L and Han, D and Yang, Q and Li, J and Zhou, P}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution and Habitat Suitability of Nitraria tangutorum.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {40431011}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2023YFF1304200//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 2005DKA21003//National Forestry and Grassland Germplasm Resources Bank/ ; }, abstract = {Nitraria tangutorum (Zygophyllaceae) is an ecologically and economically valuable shrub, locally dominant in the arid and semi-arid deserts of northwest China owing to its exceptional drought resistance and salt tolerance. In this study, environmental variable importance was evaluated within the MaxEnt model using percent-contribution metrics, based on 154 distribution records of N. tangutorum and 14 bioclimatic and soil-related environmental variables. We identified the five key variables of N. tangutorum distribution as follows: Precipitation of the Wettest Quarter (Bio16), Topsoil Sodicity (T_esp), Topsoil Electroconductibility (T_ece), Topsoil Car-bonate or lime content (T_CACO3), and Precipitation of the Driest Month (Bio14). The constructed MaxEnt model was then used to project the potential distribution areas of N. tangutorum under the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) for both current climate conditions and future climate conditions (2050s and 2090s). The results indicate that, under present-day conditions, high-suitability areas occur primarily in Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia; in future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat for N. tangutorum is anticipated to shrink by the 2050s but is expected to gradually recover by the 2090s. As time progresses, the suitable habitat areas will generally expand towards higher latitude regions. These findings demonstrate N. tangutorum's strong adaptive potential to climate change and provide a scientific basis for its targeted introduction, cultivation, and long-term management in desert restoration and ecological rehabilitation projects.}, }
@article {pmid40429229, year = {2025}, author = {Kichamu, N and Astuti, PK and Kusza, S}, title = {The Role of Insect-Based Feed in Mitigating Climate Change: Sustainable Solutions for Ruminant Farming.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {40429229}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {There has been an unprecedented demand for livestock production due to factors such as the ever-increasing population, limited resources (land, water, feed, etc.), and changing human lifestyles. Moreover, due to the interconnected nature of the world's biodiversity crisis, pollution, and climate change, environmental sustainability is going to play a pivotal role in addressing these pressing issues. Because of their high nutritional value and environmental benefits compared to conventional livestock feeds, insects as animal feed have demonstrated great potential for long-term sustainability. The current state of the IBF application on ruminants is presented in this review, together with its challenges, future direction, and strength-weakness-opportunity-threat analysis. The results from many studies on ruminants have demonstrated that insect nutrients-primarily amino acids, protein, and fat-are highly digestible, safe, and beneficial to ruminant health and productivity. Additionally, they do not harm the ruminant fermentation and microbiota, even having the benefit of possibly lowering ruminant farms' well-known methane emissions. Nevertheless, concerns continue to arise because this method is still relatively new and there is a lot of unexplored knowledge; as a result, regulation is not yet well established globally, which is a barrier to its implementation.}, }
@article {pmid40429226, year = {2025}, author = {Majeed, S and Akram, W and Sufyan, M and Abbasi, A and Riaz, S and Faisal, S and Binyameen, M and Bashir, MI and Hassan, S and Zafar, S and Kucher, O and Piven, EA and Kucher, OD}, title = {Climate Change: A Major Factor in the Spread of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) and Its Associated Dengue Virus.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {40429226}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {Climate change is thought to be responsible for the spread of various vector-borne diseases. The current study was conducted to evaluate the impact of different temperature and relative humidity regimes on the developmental stages of the yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). The study also evaluated the impact of larval density on the survival of Ae. aegypti. In addition, the association between vector larval abundance, dengue incidence, and climatic factors were elucidated during 2016-2019 in three populated districts of Punjab, Pakistan, i.e., Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Multan. The results of the study revealed that at 10 °C and 35 °C, egg hatching and adult emergence were significantly reduced, regardless of the relative humidity. In contrast, at 20 °C and 30 °C, the rates of egg and adult survival increased with higher relative humidity. In addition, a density-dependent response was observed regarding larval survival of Ae. aegypti. Moreover, larval incidence was positively correlated with the number of dengue patients, Tmax, RH, and precipitation at Lahore (0.55, 0.23, 0.29, and 0.13), Rawalpindi (0.90, 0.30, 0.21, and 0.14), and Multan (0.05, 0.27, and 0.13) respectively, except in Multan, where a negative correlation (-0.09) with precipitation was observed. The inflow of patients had a positive correlation with the occurrence of a larval population, relative humidity, and precipitation at Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Multan districts, with the scale values of 0.55, 0.25, and 0.16; 0.90, 0.22, and 0.03; and 0.05, 0.06, and 0.03, respectively. In addition, a forecast model, ARIMA, predicted that there was a higher rate of larval occurrence in Rawalpindi, followed by Lahore. This study concluded that the role of precipitation > 200 mm prior to a 1-2-month lag, a 20-30 °C temperature range, and an RH exceeding 60% lead to the occurrence of larvae and dengue case spikes. This study will help to reinforce dengue surveillance and control strategies in Pakistan and to establish early management strategies based on changing climatic factors.}, }
@article {pmid40429200, year = {2025}, author = {Vergara, AJ and Valqui-Reina, SV and Cieza-Tarrillo, D and Ocaña-Zúñiga, CL and Hernández, R and Chapa-Gonza, SR and Aquiñivin-Silva, EA and Fernández-Jeri, AB and Santos, ARD}, title = {Current and Future Spatial Distribution of the Aedes aegypti in Peru Based on Topoclimatic Analysis and Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {40429200}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2513702//National University Toribio Rodr&#xed;guez de Mendoza/ ; }, abstract = {Dengue, a febrile disease that has caused epidemics and deaths in South America, especially Peru, is vectored by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Despite the seriousness of dengue fever, and the expanding range of Ae. aegypti, future distributions of the vector and disease in the context of climate change have not yet been clearly determined. Expanding on previous findings, our study employed bioclimatic and topographic variables to model both the present and future distribution of the Ae. aegypti mosquito using the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The results indicate that 10.23% (132,053.96 km[2]) and 23.65% (305,253.82 km[2]) of Peru's surface area possess regions with high and moderate distribution probabilities, respectively, predominantly located in the departments of San Martín, Piura, Loreto, Lambayeque, Cajamarca, Amazonas, and Cusco. Moreover, based on projected future climate scenarios, it is anticipated that areas with a high probability of Ae. aegypti distribution will undergo expansion; specifically, the extent of these areas is estimated to increase by 4.47% and 2.99% by the years 2070 and 2100, respectively, under SSP2-4.5 in the HadGEM-GC31-LL model. Given the increasing dengue epidemic in Peru in recent years, our study seeks to identify tools for effectively addressing this pressing public health concern. Consequently, this research serves as a foundational framework for assessing areas with the highest likelihood of Ae. aegypti distribution in response to projected climate change in the second half of the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid40429197, year = {2025}, author = {Yong, D and Xu, D and Deng, X and He, Z and Zhuo, Z}, title = {Potential Distribution of Anoplophora horsfieldii Hope in China Based on MaxEnt and Its Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {40429197}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {20A007, 20E051, 21E040 and 22kA011//This work was funded by the Fundamental Research Funds of China West Normal University/ ; }, abstract = {Anoplophora horsfieldii Hope, a potential pest of the Cerambycidae family, is widely distributed throughout China, where it can cause damage to various living tree species. It has emerged as a critical invasive organism threatening China's agricultural and forestry production as well as ecological security. This study comprehensively analyzed the key environmental factors influencing the geographical distribution of A. horsfieldii and its spatiotemporal dynamics by integrating multi-source environmental data and employing ecological niche modeling. Model validation demonstrated high reliability and accuracy of our predictions, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.933, Kappa coefficient of 0.704, and true skill statistic (TSS) reaching 0.960. Our analysis identified four dominant environmental factors governing the distribution of A. horsfieldii: mean diurnal range (Bio2), temperature annual range (Bio7), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19). Under current climatic conditions, the total potential suitable distribution area for A. horsfieldii was estimated at 212.394 × 10[4] km[2], primarily located in central, southern, eastern, southwestern, and northwestern China. Future projections under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) suggest significant reductions in highly and moderately suitable habitats, while low-suitability areas may expand into central, eastern, and southwestern regions, with Chongqing, Henan, and Anhui potentially becoming new suitable habitats. Concurrently, the centroid coordinates of suitable habitats exhibited a directional shift toward Guangdong Province, with the overall distribution pattern demonstrating a spatial transition characterized by movement from inland to coastal areas and from higher to lower latitudes. This study provides scientific theoretical support for forestry authorities in controlling the spread of A. horsfieldii, while establishing a solid foundation for future ecological conservation and biosecurity strategies. The findings offer both theoretical insights and practical guidance for pest management and ecosystem protection.}, }
@article {pmid40427925, year = {2025}, author = {Asare, KK and Mohammed, MW and Aboagye, YO and Arndts, K and Ritter, M}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis Transmission and Distribution-Scoping Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph22050812}, pmid = {40427925}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Schistosomiasis/transmission/epidemiology ; Animals ; Humans ; *Snails/parasitology ; Schistosoma/physiology ; }, abstract = {Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic worms of the genus Schistosoma and transmitted through freshwater snails, affects over 200 million people worldwide. Climate change, through rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events, is influencing the distribution and transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis. This scoping review examines the impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission and its implications for disease control. This review aims to synthesize current knowledge on the influence of climate variables (temperature, rainfall, water bodies) on snail populations, transmission dynamics, and the shifting geographic range of schistosomiasis. It also explores the potential effects of climate adaptation policies on disease control. The review follows the Arksey and O'Malley framework and PRISMA-ScR guidelines, including studies published from 2000 to 2024. Eligible studies were selected based on empirical data on climate change, schistosomiasis transmission, and snail dynamics. A two-stage study selection process was followed: title/abstract screening and full-text review. Data were extracted on environmental factors, snail population dynamics, transmission patterns, and climate adaptation strategies. Climate change is expected to increase schistosomiasis transmission in endemic regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America, while some areas, such as parts of West Africa, may see reduced risk. Emerging hotspots were identified in regions not currently endemic. Climate adaptation policies, such as improved water management and early warning systems, were found effective in reducing transmission. Integrating climate adaptation strategies into schistosomiasis control programs is critical to mitigating the disease's spread, particularly in emerging hotspots and shifting endemic areas.}, }
@article {pmid40427865, year = {2025}, author = {Zayed, DK and Momani, S and Horabi, M and Alquran, A and Al-Nawaiseh, FK and Tarif, AB and Nimri, OF and Alyahya, MS and Madi, T and Shatat, A and Alahmad, M and Jomhawi, T and Hijjawi, B and Belbiesi, A and Al-Tammemi, AB}, title = {Exploring Policies, Strategies, and Legislations Related to the One Health Approach to Zoonoses, Antimicrobial Stewardship, and Climate Change in Jordan: A Multimethod Study with SWOT Analysis.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph22050749}, pmid = {40427865}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Jordan ; *Climate Change ; *Zoonoses/prevention &amp; control ; *One Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Animals ; *Antimicrobial Stewardship/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; *Health Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Public Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {Background: Mapping policies, strategies, and legislations related to disease prevention in Jordan is pivotal for strengthening the country's public health infrastructure. The aims of our study were to identify, review, and map the existing national policies, strategies, and legislations related to the One Health approach to zoonoses, antimicrobial stewardship (AMS), and climate change in Jordan. Additionally, we identified the key strengths and major gaps and uncovered opportunities for enhancement. The current paper reports a part of a nationwide project which was jointly executed in 2023 by the Jordan Center for Disease Control and the Health Care Accreditation Council. Methods: A multimethod approach was employed, including a comprehensive desk review of any existing policies, strategies, and legislations, along with key informant interviews involving key stakeholders. The combination of the desk review and key informant interviews allowed for a more nuanced understanding of the gaps, strengths, and challenges in Jordan's approach to One Health, AMS, and climate change adaptation. By triangulating the findings from both methods, the study was able to cross-validate its results and ensure greater reliability and accuracy in its conclusions. Results: Our analyses revealed that Jordan has made notable progress in integrating the One Health approach within its regulatory framework, particularly in managing zoonotic diseases, AMS, and climate change. Nevertheless, there is a need for more explicit and effective intersectoral coordination. While the country's AMS initiatives are supported by a national action plan, they are limited by inadequate public awareness, veterinary regulations, and monitoring systems. Moreover, Jordan's climate change strategies, aligned with broader sustainability goals and integrated into national frameworks like the environmental protection law, are constrained by a lack of emergency preparedness and multisectoral collaboration. The SWOT analysis highlighted strengths, including robust legal structures and international collaborations, while identifying gaps in enforcement and the need for updated guidelines. Opportunities exist to enhance the reporting mechanisms, public awareness, and international partnerships. Conclusions: Jordan's integration of the One Health approach to zoonotic diseases, AMS, and climate change adaptation into its disease prevention policies is commendable and aligns with global health priorities. To further enhance these initiatives, Jordan could benefit from updating its public health law and the relevant guidelines and policies, strengthening and structuring public awareness campaigns, and developing detailed climate change adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40427770, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, Y and Zhang, S and Xiao, H and Li, H and Liao, D and Xue, Y and Huang, X and Su, Q and Xiao, Y}, title = {Changes in the Distribution Range of the Genus Cardiocrinum in China Under Climate Change and Human Activities.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology14050581}, pmid = {40427770}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {42467035//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2023SSY02111//key Laboratory of Jiangxi Province for Biological Invasion and Biosecurity/ ; }, abstract = {Cardiocrinum are perennial herbaceous plants of the Liliaceae family with high ornamental, nutritional, and medicinal value. However, critical knowledge gaps remain regarding the following: (1) the fine-scale habitat preferences of Cardiocrinum; (2) the key ecological drivers influencing their growth and distribution. The MaxEnt software 3.4.1 was used to simulate the current and future suitable habitats of Cardiocrinum, evaluate the impacts of environmental changes on its distribution, and determine the distribution changes under climate change scenarios. The AUC value of the model used in the current study was >0.98, which indicates that the model had good accuracy. The results show that as a typical understory herb, precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18) and temperature seasonality (bio04) are the main factors affecting the distribution of Cardiocrinum. In addition, Cardiocrinum giganteum and Cardiocrinum giganteum var. yunnanense are also affected by slope and human activity. Under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas of Cardiocrinum cathayanum and C. giganteum showed an increasing trend. The suitable habitat area of C. giganteum var. yunnanense increased under the SSP126 climate scenario; however, it substantially declined in SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The distribution area of Cardiocrinum shifted to higher latitudes. The centroid of C. cathayanum shifted more than 5 degrees of latitude during SSP585 2081s, while the centroid of C. giganteum and C. giganteum var. yunnanense did not shift more than 2 degrees of latitude. In addition, the centroid longitudes of C. giganteum and C. giganteum var. yunnanense shifted westward under the three climate scenarios. There is ecological niche differentiation among C. cathayanum and others, whilst C. giganteum and C. giganteum var. yunnanense have overlapping ecological niches. In the future, we will strengthen the protection of wild Cardiocrinum resources in accordance with environmental factors and suitable habitats for Cardiocrinum.}, }
@article {pmid40427753, year = {2025}, author = {Liao, D and Zhou, B and Xiao, H and Zhang, Y and Zhang, S and Su, Q and Yan, X}, title = {MaxEnt Modeling of the Impacts of Human Activities and Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Plantago in China.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology14050564}, pmid = {40427753}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {32460263, 31760122, 32360264//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 20212BAB205018//the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi, China/ ; 2023SSY02111//Key Laboratory of Jiangxi Province for Biological Invasion and Biosecurity/ ; }, abstract = {Human activities exert both beneficial and detrimental impacts on the ecosystem. In recent years, greenhouse gas emissions have significantly increased due to global climate change, causing profound alterations in ecosystem distribution and productivity. The synergistic interplay between climatic shifts and anthropogenic activities is intensifying ecological transformations and disturbances, and accelerating biodiversity depletion. The Plantago genus (Plantaginaceae family) includes 14 herbaceous species among China's flora. This study was conducted to elucidate the spatial distribution of Plantago species patterns across China and evaluate their differential responses to impending climate change and human interventions. In this study, we projected the potential distributions of Plantago species under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) across current and future temporal intervals (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) using the MaxEnt model integrated with ArcGIS V10.8 spatial analysis. A spatial trend analyses was also conducted to assess habitat suitability dynamics by incorporating anthropogenic influence parameters. The model validation yielded AUC values exceeding 0.9, demonstrating excellent model performance and predictive reliability. Precipitation variability and anthropogenic pressure emerged as the most predominant determinants shaping Plantago distributions. Centroid migration analyses further indicated the progressive northward displacement of optimal habitats under the projected climate scenarios. These findings significantly advance our understanding of Plantago species' adaptive responses to environmental changes. This study also offers an invaluable scientific foundation for sustainable resource management and ecological conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40427693, year = {2025}, author = {Qi, Y and Zhang, Y and Xue, J and Zhang, Z and Cao, J and Yang, N and Wan, F and Xian, X and Liu, W}, title = {Future Climate Change Increases the Risk of Suitable Habitats for the Invasive Macrophyte Elodea nuttallii.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology14050504}, pmid = {40427693}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2023YFC2605200, 2021YFC2600400//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; caascx-2022-2025-IAS//Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Elodea nuttallii is an ornamental macrophyte native to North America that has been introduced to Europe and Asia, and having been established, has had detrimental effects on local aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we developed an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the global potential habitat suitability for E. nuttallii under the influence of climate change. The model incorporated 20 relevant impact factors and occurrence record data for E. nuttallii. The results reveal that under current and future climate scenarios, potentially suitable habitats for E. nuttallii can be found on six assessed continents, mainly in Western Europe, western and eastern North America, southeastern Asia, southeastern Oceania, and scattered coastal areas in South America and Africa. Moreover, temperature and precipitation were identified as factors having significant effects on the distribution of E. nuttallii. In the future, the area of habitats potentially suitable for E. nuttallii is predicted to expand, particularly towards higher latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid40427683, year = {2025}, author = {Wei, Q and Zhou, B and Wang, W}, title = {Qinghai Province (Tibetan Plateau): Quantifying the Influence of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Net Primary Productivity and Livestock Carrying Capacity Growth Potential.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology14050494}, pmid = {40427683}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2023YFF1304305//Wenying Wang/ ; W2412148//Wenying Wang/ ; D23029//Wenying Wang/ ; }, abstract = {Quantitative exploration of shifts in regional vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) and their driving factors holds immense importance in unraveling the mechanisms steering vegetation alterations, comprehending the impact of climate variations and human interventions on NPP, and guiding ecological management. Despite this significance, there is a scarcity of research reports on Qinghai Province. The aim is to dissect the influences of climate change and human activities on Qinghai's vegetation NPP and to estimate the growth potential of livestock carrying capacity. This study addresses the gap by juxtaposing the characteristics of climate-induced potential NPP changes, computed using the Zhou Guangsheng model, with actual NPP changes, calculated via the CASA model. Our findings underscore climate factors as the predominant drivers of Qinghai's vegetation NPP, accounting for 64.6% of the total area. Regions influenced by human activities contribute 34.3%, while unchanged areas constitute 2%. Climate emerges as the primary catalyst for increased vegetation NPP in Qinghai, encompassing 87% of the total area, with 73% attributed to climate factors across all counties. Conversely, human activities predominantly lead to decreased NPP, affecting 11% of the total area. Notably, 99% of the reduced NPP is attributable to human activities, concentrated in Golmud, Mangya, and Dulan counties in the northwest. Examining the growth potential of livestock carrying capacity from 1982 to 2018 reveals a consistent upward trajectory in Qinghai Province. The average annual growth potential per unit area escalates from 0.38 SHU/ha in 1982 to 0.56 SHU/ha in 2018. By 2018, regions exhibiting positive growth potential encompass 95% of the province, with areas exceeding 1 SHU/ha constituting 9%, primarily situated in the eastern part of Qinghai Province.}, }
@article {pmid40425168, year = {2025}, author = {de Buhr, Y and Hübner, IM and Breitbart, EW}, title = {[UV protection in climate change: health policy relevance and necessary framework conditions].}, journal = {Gesundheitswesen (Bundesverband der Arzte des Offentlichen Gesundheitsdienstes (Germany))}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1055/a-2623-3832}, pmid = {40425168}, issn = {1439-4421}, }
@article {pmid40424289, year = {2025}, author = {Sáenz-Jiménez, F and Parrado-Vargas, MA and González-Maya, JF and Carvajal-Cogollo, JE}, title = {Functional safeguards for conservation: Identifying climate change refugia for frugivorous and nectarivorous birds in a degraded area of Colombia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {e0321817}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0321817}, pmid = {40424289}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Colombia ; *Birds/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; *Refugium ; *Feeding Behavior ; Fruit ; }, abstract = {Habitat loss and climate change are major drivers of biodiversity loss, but their synergistic effects and functional perspectives have to be better understood. We employed species distribution models under future contrasting socioeconomic scenarios to assess the impacts of climate change and human footprint on avian frugivore and nectarivore functional groups in the Magdalena Valley, a highly transformed and biodiverse region in Colombia. We constructed the functional groups based on a dissimilarity matrix with 16 anatomical and ecological traits. Two types of future climatic refugia (type 1: areas that will maintain the current climatic conditions and type 2: regions outside the current distribution area that will have the current climatic conditions) were identified to guide conservation efforts for these groups and associated ecosystem services. Of the 27 functional groups identified, 19 are projected to undergo range reductions of 1-75%, with an average upward shift of their climatic niches along the altitudinal gradient of 690 m. Large frugivores from intermediate elevations, such as toucans and cracids, as well as nectarivores with extreme adaptations and specializations, are expected to experience the most severe range reductions. Distributional and altitudinal shifts will lead to spatial reorganization of communities and a reduction or complete loss of functional group richness, particularly in lowland areas. This could impact ecosystem services relevant for degraded area restoration, such as seed dispersal, fruit availability, and pollination of specialized plant species with economic importance. The low representation of future climatic refugia within protected areas highlights the need to incorporate climate change trends into future conservation strategies for these landscapes.}, }
@article {pmid40423353, year = {2025}, author = {Mas-Coma, S and Cuervo, PF and Chetri, PB and Tripathi, T and Gabrielli, AF and Bargues, MD}, title = {Emerging Human Fascioliasis in India: Review of Case Reports, Climate Change Impact, and Geo-Historical Correlation Defining Areas and Seasons of High Infection Risk.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {40423353}, issn = {2414-6366}, support = {CB21/13/00056//CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas, ISCIII, Ministry of Science and Innovation, and European Union - NextGenerationEU, Madrid, Spain/ ; 2021/004//the PROMETEO Program, Programa of Ayudas para Grupos de Investigaci&#xf3;n de Excelencia, Generalitat Valenciana, Valencia, Spain/ ; 101062347//the Marie Sk&#x142;odowska-Curie Actions programme (Horizon Europe), EC, Brussels/ ; }, abstract = {The trematodes Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica are transmitted by lymnaeid snails and cause fascioliasis in livestock and humans. Human infection is emerging in southern and southeastern Asia. In India, the number of case reports has increased since 1993. This multidisciplinary study analyzes the epidemiological scenario of human infection. The study reviews the total of 55 fascioliasis patients, their characteristics, and geographical distribution. Causes underlying this emergence are assessed by analyzing (i) the climate change suffered by India based on 40-year-data from meteorological stations, and (ii) the geographical fascioliasis hotspots according to archeological-historical records about thousands of years of pack animal movements. The review suggests frequent misdiagnosis of the wide lowland-distributed F. gigantica with F. hepatica and emphasizes the need to obtain anamnesic information about the locality of residence and the infection source. Prevalence appears to be higher in females and in the 30-40-year age group. The time elapsed between symptom onset and diagnosis varied from 10 days to 5 years (mean 9.2 months). Infection was diagnosed by egg finding (in 12 cases), adult finding (28), serology (3), and clinics and image techniques (12). Climate diagrams and the Wb-bs forecast index show higher temperatures favoring the warm condition-preferring main snail vector Radix luteola and a precipitation increase due to fewer rainy days but more days of extreme rainfall, leading to increasing surface water availability and favoring fascioliasis transmission. Climate trends indicate a risk of future increasing fascioliasis emergence, including a seasonal infection risk from June-July to October-November. Geographical zones of high human infection risk defined by archeological-historical analyses concern: (i) the Indo-Gangetic Plains and corridors used by the old Grand Trunk Road and Daksinapatha Road, (ii) northern mountainous areas by connections with the Silk Road and Tea-Horse Road, and (iii) the hinterlands of western and eastern seaport cities involved in the past Maritime Silk Road. Routes and nodes are illustrated, all transhumant-nomadic-pastoralist groups are detailed, and livestock prevalences per state are given. A baseline defining areas and seasons of high infection risk is established for the first time in India. This is henceforth expected to be helpful for physicians, prevention measures, control initiatives, and recommendations for health administration officers.}, }
@article {pmid40423319, year = {2025}, author = {Weber, C and Olesen, AJ and Hatfield, RG and Krock, B and Lundholm, N}, title = {Extensive Variation in Thermal Responses and Toxin Content Among 40 Strains of the Cold-Water Diatom Pseudo-nitzschia seriata-In a Global Warming Context.}, journal = {Toxins}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {40423319}, issn = {2072-6651}, support = {9040-00248B//Danish Research Council/ ; project: RD011//UK Seafood Innovation Fund/ ; Through the research program "Changing Earth - Sustaining our Future"//Helmholtz Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Diatoms/growth &amp; development/genetics/metabolism/physiology ; *Global Warming ; Cold Temperature ; *Kainic Acid/analogs &amp; derivatives/metabolism/analysis ; Phytoplankton/genetics/growth &amp; development ; *Marine Toxins/metabolism ; Genetic Variation ; }, abstract = {Phytoplankton are single-celled microorganisms with short generation times that may comprise high diversity in genetic and phenotypic traits, allowing them to acclimate to changes rapidly. High intraspecific genetic variation is well known in phytoplankton, but less is known about variation in physiological traits. To investigate variability and plasticity in genetic, morphological, and physiological traits of the toxigenic diatom genus Pseudo-nitzschia in a global warming scenario, we exposed 40 strains of the cold-water P. seriata to different temperatures (2 °C, 6 °C and 10 °C). The maximum growth rate and cellular toxin content showed extensive intraspecific variation, whereas morphological and genetic variation was minor. Thermal reaction norms showed a general increase in growth rate with increasing temperature; however, three distinct types of thermal responses were found among the 40 strains. All 40 strains contained toxins (domoic acid) in both exponential and stationary growth phase, and toxin content increased significantly with temperature. Most strains (>87%) contained measurable levels of domoic acid at all three temperatures. In conclusion, P. seriata shows extensive intraspecific variation in measured physiological traits like growth and toxin content, a variation exceeding the response of each strain to increases in temperature. Intraspecific variation in harmful species thus needs attention for the future understanding of food web dynamics, as well as the management and forecasting of harmful blooms.}, }
@article {pmid40422997, year = {2025}, author = {Zhou, X and Yang, Y and Yan, D}, title = {Research on Digital Orthophoto Production Technology for Indoor Murals in the Context of Climate Change and Environmental Protection.}, journal = {Journal of imaging}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {40422997}, issn = {2313-433X}, support = {2021RCKY0004//Research on 3D Street View Model Construction Based on Vehicle-Mounted Multi-View and Multi-Sensor Data Fusion/ ; }, abstract = {In response to the urgent need for the sustainable conservation of cultural heritage against the backdrop of climate change and environmental degradation, this study proposes a low-cost, non-destructive digital recording method for murals based on close-range photogrammetry. By integrating non-metric digital cameras, total stations, and spatial coordinate transformation models, high-precision digital orthophoto generation for indoor murals was achieved. Experimental results show that the resolution error of this method is 0.02 mm, with root mean square errors (RMSE) of 3.51 mm and 2.77 mm in the X and Y directions, respectively, meeting the precision requirements for cultural heritage conservation. Compared to traditional laser scanning technology, the energy consumption of the equipment in this study is significantly reduced, and the use of chemical reagents is avoided, thereby minimizing the carbon footprint and environmental impact during the recording process. This provides a green technological solution to address climate change. Additionally, the low-cost nature of non-metric cameras offers a feasible option for cultural heritage conservation institutions with limited resources, promoting equity and accessibility in heritage protection amid global climate challenges. This technology provides sustainable data support for long-term monitoring, virtual restoration, and public digital display of murals while also offering rich data resources for virtual cultural tourism, public education, and scientific research. It demonstrates broad application potential in the context of climate change and environmental protection, contributing to the green transformation and sustainable development of cultural tourism.}, }
@article {pmid40422294, year = {2025}, author = {Adamopoulos, I and Valamontes, A and Tsirkas, P and Dounias, G}, title = {Predicting Workplace Hazard, Stress and Burnout Among Public Health Inspectors: An AI-Driven Analysis in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {European journal of investigation in health, psychology and education}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {40422294}, issn = {2254-9625}, abstract = {The increasing severity of climate-related workplace hazards challenges occupational health and safety, particularly for Public Health and Safety Inspectors. Exposure to extreme temperatures, air pollution, and high-risk environments heightens immediate physical threats and long-term burnout. This study employs Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven predictive analytics and secondary data analysis to assess hazards and forecast burnout risks. Machine learning models, including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost 3.0), Random Forest, Autoencoders, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTMs), achieved 85-90% accuracy in hazard prediction, reducing workplace incidents by 35% over six months. Burnout risk analysis identified key predictors: physical hazard exposure (β = 0.76, p < 0.01), extended work hours (>10 h/day, +40% risk), and inadequate training (β = 0.68, p < 0.05). Adaptive workload scheduling and fatigue monitoring reduced burnout prevalence by 28%. Real-time environmental data improved hazard detection, while Natural Language Processing (NLP)-based text mining identified stress-related indicators in worker reports. The results demonstrate AI's effectiveness in workplace safety, predicting, classifying, and mitigating risks. Reinforcement learning-based adaptive monitoring optimizes workforce well-being. Expanding predictive-driven occupational health frameworks to broader industries could enhance safety protocols, ensuring proactive risk mitigation. Future applications include integrating biometric wearables and real-time physiological monitoring to improve predictive accuracy and strengthen occupational resilience.}, }
@article {pmid40421585, year = {2025}, author = {Newbold, T and Kerr, J and Soroye, P and Williams, JJ}, title = {Bumble Bee Probability of Occurrence Responds to Interactions Between Local and Landscape Land Use, Climatic Niche Properties and Climate Change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {28}, number = {5}, pages = {e70145}, doi = {10.1111/ele.70145}, pmid = {40421585}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {NE/V006533/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; IE161031//Royal Society/ ; UF150526//Royal Society/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Bees/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Biodiversity ; North America ; Europe ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Insect biodiversity is changing rapidly, driven by a suite of pressures, notably land use, land-use intensification and increasingly climate change. We lack large-scale evidence on how land use and climate change interact to drive insect biodiversity changes. We assess bumble bee responses to interactive effects of land use and climate pressures across North America and Europe. The probability of occurrence increases in landscapes with a higher proportion of natural habitat and a shorter history of human disturbance. Responses to climate warming relative to historical conditions are weakly negative in natural habitats but positive in human land uses, while human land use reduces the probability of occurrence most in the centre of species' temperature niches. We estimate that the combined pressures have reduced bumble bee probability of occurrence by 44% across sampled natural habitats and 55% across human land uses, highlighting the pervasive influence that human pressures have had on biodiversity across habitats.}, }
@article {pmid40421550, year = {2025}, author = {Archer, E and Arneth, A and Leadley, P and Mori, A and Obura, D and Smith, P}, title = {Achieving the Global Biodiversity Framework Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {5}, pages = {e70249}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.70249}, pmid = {40421550}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; }, abstract = {We have committed to ambitious targets under the Global Biodiversity Framework, but projected climate change makes the achievement of many of these targets extremely difficult and will effectively require a significant rethinking in how to achieve multiple targets. In this Opinion, we have chosen to focus on selected targets, considering how their achievement is likely to be compromised by climate change but also what the possibility of real response options might be. We focus on restoration (Target 2), spatial planning and integration (Targets 1, 2, 3 and 10), sustainable use and sustainable benefits to people (Targets 5, 9 and 10) and, finally, equity and social justice (Targets 13, 20-23 and Goal C). Now more than ever, the window for effective action on climate change and biodiversity is closing, requiring rapid and, most importantly, collective action.}, }
@article {pmid40420780, year = {2025}, author = {Varvastian, S}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health: A Human Rights Perspective.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-6}, doi = {10.1017/jme.2025.10114}, pmid = {40420780}, issn = {1748-720X}, abstract = {Climate change-related environmental harms have been observed to negatively affect mental health. While policymakers and courts around the world widely recognise the impacts of climate change on physical heath as potentially endangering human rights, the implications of climate change for mental health have received significantly less attention. This paper analyzed five cases that challenged national response to climate change and the resulting impacts on mental health before four different international human rights protection bodies. Four out of these five cases were dismissed either because the petitioners did not seek prior action before the national authorities, or because their claims were deemed unsubstantiated. Despite these outcomes, the protection bodies' treatment of these petitions as well as various other ongoing developments show that the human rights approach to climate change and mental health is gradually emerging at the international and domestic levels, but it is still in its early days and there are various challenges to it.}, }
@article {pmid40419625, year = {2025}, author = {Kariminejad, N and Amindin, A and Sepehr, A and Pourghasemi, HR}, title = {Projecting the effect of climate change on multiple Geomorphological hazard using machine learning data driven approaches.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {18333}, pmid = {40419625}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {1403727//Office of Science and Technology Interactions, Research and Technology Department at Shiraz University/ ; }, abstract = {Land subsidence (LS) and collapsed pipes (CP) pose environmental and socio-economic threats in arid and semi-arid regions. This study assesses the effect of climate change to address these problems in Khorasan-Razavi province, Iran. Thus, we mapped soil landforms susceptible to LS and CP based on climatic, geolocic, topoghraphic, hydrologic and edaphic variables using an ensemble forecasting approach. Additionally, we predicted the future susceptibility of CP and LS based on two future emission scenario pathways (SSP 5-8.5 and SSP 1-2.6), in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. The assessment showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) indicated that the ensemble model accurately predicted the distribution of CP and LS (AUC > 0.8). Slope and clay content proved to be the most important factors affecting CP, whereas distance from faults and precipitation seasonality played more roles in LS susceptibility. The classification results indicated varying susceptibility levels to CP and LS in Khorasan-Razavi province, with approximately 31.58% categorized as low and 15.24% as very high LS susceptibility, while 42.71% were in the low CP susceptibility class. Overall, 57.16% of the area is safe from both hazards; however, 6.16% is vulnerable to both hazards, with more than 35% at risk for at least one hazard. Future prediction models suggest that up to approximately 4% of the area will consist susceptible to both hazards under both scenario emissions and less than 1% of the study area will reduce susceptibility for both studied hazards in future. The majority of regions that remain susceptible are in the southern province. These results guide for soil management to protect soil and water from the effects of humans and climate alternation in poor areas worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid40418357, year = {2025}, author = {Lavoie, M and Blanchette, P and Jenouvrier, S and Larivière, S and Tremblay, JP}, title = {Wildlife Management and Climate Change: How to Adapt Harvest Rates of Wild Turkey According to Extreme Weather Events.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40418357}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Climate change is forcing many species to shift their distribution north. Managing these expanding species is a challenge because the factors that influence population dynamics vary with weather. The challenge is even greater for game specie, as other human factors must be considered. The wild turkey naturally expanded its distribution northward into southern Quebec, without humans transplanting turkeys from other regions. However, the northern expansion is currently limited by extreme weather events. We used matrix modelling to explore the respective and interactive effects of weather and harvest levels on demographic parameters of three populations at different expansion stages but all at the northern edge of the species distribution. Our results suggest that populations at the expansion front (fast-paced life history) can sustain higher hunting rates than well-established populations (slow-paced life history), but that the proportion of adult males declines more rapidly in response to a given level of harvest. Furthermore, populations at the expansion front under harsh to extreme conditions could not tolerate any level of harvest. Finally, fall hunting had the greatest influence on population dynamics mainly because harvesting of all females is permitted, while spring hunting is restricted to bearded birds only (<1% of turkeys harvested in spring are bearded hen). Optimal hunting regimes for populations at the limit of their distribution vary with weather and expansion stages. A conservative solution would be to allow fall hunting only in well-established populations, but adaptive management where fall harvest at the expansion front would be implemented during more mild winters. Our model approach is relatable to the very many populations currently expanding poleward in response to climate change by considering different adaptive management policies in established and expanding populations.}, }
@article {pmid40417832, year = {2025}, author = {Tremblay, &#xc9; and Harrisson, S}, title = {Integrating Ecofeminism Into Canadian Nursing to Tackle Climate Change and Health Issues.}, journal = {Nursing inquiry}, volume = {32}, number = {3}, pages = {e70035}, pmid = {40417832}, issn = {1440-1800}, support = {//The authors received no specific funding for this work./ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Canada ; *Nursing ; }, abstract = {This paper presents an overview of the health impacts associated with anthropogenic climate change and examines the interconnection between human health and the environment. It highlights the nursing profession's stance on environmental issues, drawing attention to the disengagement of nurses from advocacy initiatives related to climate change and how this relates to the nursing metaparadigm. Moreover, this paper supports a multidirectional approach to address climate change solutions, with a particular emphasis on both adaptation and mitigation strategies. Ecofeminism is proposed as a critical framework to address the shortcomings of the metaparadigm and the approaches to climate change solutions. It examines the potential for integrating ecofeminism into nursing research and practice by reconceptualizing the concept of the environment, adopting an ethic of the environment, and critiquing oppressive social structures. The benefits of ecofeminism for nursing include enhancing nurses' responsiveness to the health consequences of climate change, facilitated by using a critical voice that promotes inclusion and collective action.}, }
@article {pmid40417318, year = {2025}, author = {Simmonds, P and Maye, D and Ingram, J}, title = {Ruminant livestock and climate change: critical discourse moments in mainstream and farming sector news media.}, journal = {Agriculture and human values}, volume = {42}, number = {2}, pages = {945-964}, pmid = {40417318}, issn = {0889-048X}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: There is ongoing contestation around greenhouse gas emissions from ruminant livestock and how society should respond. Media discourses play a key role in agenda setting for the general public and policymakers, and may contribute to polarisation. This paper examines how UK news media portrayed ruminant livestock's impact on climate change between 2016 and 2021. The analysis addresses a gap in the literature by comparing discourses in national and farming sector newspapers using a qualitative approach. Four national and two farming sector news outlets were searched for articles published between 2016 and 2021. A corpus of 996 relevant articles was assembled, from which 154 were selected for in-depth examination using Critical Discourse Analysis. Four 'Critical Discourse Moments' (CDMs), each signifying a discursive shift in the debate, were identified over the 6-year studied period: 1) Low salience, diverging discourses, 2) We must eat far less meat, 3) Fighting the anti-meat agenda, and 4) Policy (in)action at COP26. There was a large increase in the number of published articles from January 2019 onward, partly associated with publication of the EAT/Lancet Commission report. CDM 2 (We must eat far less meat) occurred mainly in the national media, while CDM 3 (Fighting the anti-meat agenda) occurred mainly in the farming media. Our findings reveal both opinion polarisation and intergroup polarisation between national and farming sector media, and low engagement with food system power imbalances. Addressing polarisation will be important to enhance capacity for collective decision-making regarding methane emissions from ruminant livestock.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10460-024-10651-7.}, }
@article {pmid40416650, year = {2025}, author = {Kröner, L and van Grinsven, HJ and Erisman, JW and Graversgaard, M and Immerzeel, T and Olesen, JE and Rodríguez, A and Soriano, B and Sanz-Cobena, A and van der Lippe, T}, title = {Climate change skepticism of European farmers and implications for effective policy actions.}, journal = {Communications earth &amp; environment}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {396}, pmid = {40416650}, issn = {2662-4435}, abstract = {European farmers struggle with mitigating global emissions of greenhouse gases effectively and to cope with climate change. European regulators and national governments encounter obstacles in implementing environmental policies, feeding frustration amongst farmers. We hypothesize that these issues relate to climate change skepticism within the farming community and dissensus with non-farmers and between countries. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed climate attribution and impact skepticism amongst farmers and the rest of the working population using the Eurobarometer and the European Social Survey, and national data about gross domestic product (GDP), innovativeness, share of agricultural land, and climate damage risk for agriculture. Impact skepticism of farmers increases with decreasing risk of climate damage and increasing GDP, causing a South-North gradient in Europe. The majority of farmers in the EU countries were more skeptical than non-farmers. Understanding and reducing this skepticism provides a key to more effective mitigation and adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid40415256, year = {2025}, author = {Long, Z and Sang, Y and Feng, J and Zhang, X and Shi, T and Zhang, L and Mao, K and Rieseberg, LH and Liu, J and Wang, J}, title = {Evolutionary Genomics Unravels the Responses and Adaptation to Climate Change in a Key Alpine Forest Tree Species.}, journal = {Molecular biology and evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/molbev/msaf116}, pmid = {40415256}, issn = {1537-1719}, abstract = {Despite widespread biodiversity loss, our understanding of how species and populations will respond to accelerated climate change remains limited. In this study, we integrate population genomics, experimental evolution, and environmental modeling to elucidate the evolutionary responses to climate change in Populus lasiocarpa, a key alpine forest tree species primarily distributed in the mountainous regions of a global biodiversity hotspot. Over historical timescales, our findings demonstrate that demographic dynamics, divergent selection, and long-term balancing selection have shaped and maintained genetic variation within and between populations. In examining genomic signatures of contemporary climate adaptation, we found that haplotype blocks, potentially caused by inversion polymorphisms that suppress recombination, are linked to enriched combinations of locally adaptive environmental variations. We further assessed the relative contributions of environmentally induced plastic responses, constitutive expression divergence between genetic clusters, and their interactions in driving gene expression variation and divergence. Notably, we observed a strong correlation between sequence divergence and constitutive differential expression among genetic clusters. Finally, by incorporating genetic adaptation, migration, and genetic load into our predictions of population-level climate change risks, we identified western populations-primarily distributed in the Hengduan Mountains, a region known for its environmental heterogeneity and significant biodiversity-as the most vulnerable to climate change. These populations should be prioritized for conservation and management. Overall, our study advances the understanding of the relative roles of long-term natural selection, local environmental adaptation, and immediate plastic expression changes in shaping the responses of natural populations of keystone species to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40414137, year = {2025}, author = {Sokhansefat, S and Kanani-Sadat, Y and Nasseri, M}, title = {Modeling vegetation dynamics in complex topography under impacts of climate change: Integration of spatial clustering and optimized XGBoost.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {387}, number = {}, pages = {125902}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125902}, pmid = {40414137}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Understanding vegetation dynamics under impacts of climate change is essential for assessing ecosystem services, particularly in vulnerable areas. This study presents an efficient and accurate method for projecting the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to evaluate environmental status influenced by climate change, focusing on the Karkheh watershed, an ecologically sensitive area with complicated topography in Iran. We optimized a XGBoost model with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to estimate monthly spatiotemporal dynamics of NDVI, effectively handling extensive pixel-level time series data and capturing nonlinear relationships. After downscaling climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), historical and future precipitation and temperature maps were generated through optimal Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The model incorporated 23 input variables, including phenological rhythm categories, meteorological factors (with various time lags), and seasonal cycles, to project NDVI from 2030 to 2050 under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Results demonstrate that the optimized XGBoost model effectively evaluates vegetation growth, with the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.93 and NDVI is projected to increase across all future scenarios, particularly under higher emissions pathways. SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that phenological rhythms, moderate temperatures from the preceding month, moderately high current temperatures, and high precipitation from four months earlier play key roles in NDVI projection for this watershed.}, }
@article {pmid40414057, year = {2025}, author = {Nikoo, MR and Zamani, MG and Vanda, S and Farmani, R and Šimůnek, J and Al Sinani, A}, title = {Future projections of thermal and chemical stratifications in reservoir under the impact of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {984}, number = {}, pages = {179722}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179722}, pmid = {40414057}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Vertical stratification is a fundamental characteristic of water bodies that significantly affects vertical convection and mixing dynamics. With the impact of climate change, thermal and chemical stratification in lakes and reservoirs has been exacerbated, leading to more pronounced environmental and ecological challenges. While previous studies have identified the impact of climate change on reservoir stratification, they have primarily focused on temperature variations in future periods. This study goes beyond temperature and the direct outputs of General Circulation Models (GCMs) by also considering inflow volume and temperature, providing a more comprehensive assessment of climate change effects on both thermal and chemical stratification. To do so, this study developed a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, i.e., CE-QUAL-W2, to investigate the thermal and chemical responses of the Wadi Dayqah Reservoir, located in Oman, to projected climate change. The results indicated that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the annual mean inflow temperature remained largely unchanged, whereas the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios induced significant increases. Additionally, climate change led to a prolonged persistence of summer thermal and chemical stratification, with the most substantial delay occurring under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Moreover, the SSP5-8.5 scenario exhibited a significantly higher frequency of critical chemical index occurrences than SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6, highlighting the strong interdependence between thermal and chemical stratification in reservoir systems. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, thermal stratification (SI) is expected to rise by 12 %, 26 %, and 43 % by the end of the century. The chemical stratification index (CI) is anticipated to climb by 9 %, 21 %, and 38 % in the same scenarios, indicating higher warming routes intensifying stratification. These findings emphasize the urgent need for emission reduction strategies to mitigate climate-induced warming, maintain thermal stability, and protect reservoir ecosystems from extreme stratification under future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid40411712, year = {2025}, author = {Haq, SM and Waheed, M and Walas, &#x141; and Alipour, S and Ahmad, R and Bussmann, RW and Al-Sadoon, MK}, title = {Conserving the critically endangered Hangul (Cervus hanglu hanglu)-future distribution and efficiency of protected areas under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {6}, pages = {672}, pmid = {40411712}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Endangered Species ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Deer ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Environmental Monitoring ; India ; }, abstract = {Climate change is impacting species distribution at a global scale, posing a significant threat to biodiversity. Special attention needs to be given to threatened species like the Kashmir Red Deer (Cervus hanglu hanglu). Despite being a symbol of global conservation, holistic management is necessary for decision-making and species recovery. A comprehensive study mapping of the potential habitat changes for Hangul in the Dachigam landscape is crucial to enhance conservation efforts. We examined the impacts of expected global warming on the distribution of Hangul by employing a maximum entropy approach to assess species range shift. Hangul was anticipated to be sensitive to upcoming worldwide warming, and it was expected that this would increase its risk of local extinction. In the model, the severity of repercussions from climate change grew as the time horizon increased and decreased the species' suitable habitat. By 2080, predictions indicated a gradual reduction in range or, in some scenarios, the complete loss of habitat, regardless of the potential for Hangul to disperse indefinitely. We estimated that the overall very highly suitable habitat in the protected region is currently 2220 ha, while its vast distribution area in the unprotected zone is 30,445 ha, emphasizing the necessity of establishing corridor connectivity between fragmented populations and promoting conservation efforts. Among various climate conditions, the core-to-edge ratio is at its highest level in the current conditions. Our study reveals two critical findings: Firstly, endangered species unique to a particular region are highly susceptible to the impacts of global warming. Secondly, when evaluating the outcomes of global warming, the highly suitable habitat is expected to shift under predicted climatic changes, with an average altitudinal migration of 700 m. Consequently, conservation strategies must consider the expected regional shifts and are designed with a clear understanding of the accuracy of projecting climate change effects.}, }
@article {pmid40411156, year = {2025}, author = {Jiang, G and Xie, X and Zeng, Y and Huang, S and Zeng, Y and Huang, G}, title = {Factors affecting the responses of rice quality to global warming in the field conditions: a meta-analysis.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.14392}, pmid = {40411156}, issn = {1097-0010}, support = {2023YFD2301300//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 2024M761228//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global warming has been suggested to have negative impacts on most quality traits of rice; however, factors and how they affect the responses of rice quality to warming still need systematic examination under field conditions.<br><br>RESULTS: In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the overall impacts of field warming on grain quality and identify the key factors affecting these impacts, collecting data from 45 published studies with 1316 paired observations. Our results found that warming significantly increased chalkiness degree, chalky rice rate, protein content and breakdown value, but decreased head rice rate and amylose content. Growth stage when warming was imposed had significant impacts on the grain quality responses to warming, with larger responses generally observed at reproductive stage than vegetative stage; besides, warming responses of grain quality also significantly differed among warming patterns and subspecies. Importantly, our results suggest that deterioration of appearance quality under warming tends to decrease with increasing soil fertility. However, with the increasing N and P applications and panicle N percentage, negative responses of milling and appearance qualities to warming become more severe. Additionally, our results suggest that negative responses of appearance quality to warming could be mitigated by increasing K application.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our present findings should further our understandings of the warming effects on rice quality under field conditions and be helpful in mitigating the negative effects of warming on grain quality by variety selection, amelioration of soil fertility and optimal inorganic fertilizer inputs. &#xa9; 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid40410241, year = {2025}, author = {Sarkar, K and Nieto, JJ and Khajanchi, S and Mali, PC}, title = {Modeling the influence of global warming on carbon, phytoplankton, and zooplankton dynamics.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {17911}, pmid = {40410241}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {SR/FST/MS-I/2022/122//Fund for Improvement of S &amp; T Infrastructure (FIST)/ ; SR/FST/MS-I/2019/41//Fund for Improvement of S &amp; T Infrastructure (FIST)/ ; PID2020-113275GB-I00//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033//ERDF A way of making Europe/ ; ED431C 2023/12//Xunta de Galicia/ ; }, mesh = {*Phytoplankton/metabolism/physiology ; *Global Warming ; *Zooplankton/physiology/metabolism ; Animals ; *Carbon/metabolism ; *Models, Theoretical ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Models, Biological ; Ecosystem ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Over the last 250 years, anthropogenic activity has increased atmospheric carbon dioxide by nearly 40%. This increase is mainly caused by human fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, which are the main causes of global warming. Phytoplankton of the world's oceans synthesizes half of the carbon dioxide of the total Earth's photosynthetic activity. Thus, phytoplankton plays a crucial role in controlling Earth's climate. To study this scenario, we propose and analyze a mathematical model for the carbon-phytoplankton-zooplankton interaction dynamics. Positivity, boundedness, existence, and stability of biologically possible equilibrium points are studied. The system exhibits Hopf bifurcation with respect to the carbon capture coefficient and the criteria of Hopf bifurcation is established around the coexisting equilibrium. Complex spatiotemporal dynamics and patchy pattern formation are observed in the spatially explicit model. The proposed carbon-phytoplankton-zooplankton system incorporates the effect of global warming, and our simulation shows shifts in plankton seasonal dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid40410225, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, Y and Peng, J and Mao, Y and Liu, Z and Zhao, G and Zhang, F}, title = {Prediction of the potentially suitable areas of Elymus dahuricus Turcz in China under climate change based on maxent.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {17959}, pmid = {40410225}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {41801027//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 202203021211252//Fundamental Research Program of Shanxi Province/ ; 202203021211250//Fundamental Research Program of Shanxi Province/ ; 20230027//Fund Program for the Scientific Activities of Selected Returned Overseas Professionals in Shanxi Province/ ; 20230025//Fund Program for the Scientific Activities of Selected Returned Overseas Professionals in Shanxi Province/ ; 31700434//National Natural Science Foundation/ ; 2023-110//Research Project Supported by Shanxi Scholarship Council of China/ ; 2021L274//Science and Technology Innovation Project of Colleges and Universities in Shanxi Province/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Elymus/growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {Elymus dahuricus Turcz (E.dahuricus) is an excellent forage grass with very high economic value and high adaptability.Predicting the potential habitat distribution of E.dahuricus in China can provide solid and scientific theoretical support for the effective utilization of E.dahuricus germplasm resources.In this study, 180 occurrence sites of E.dahuricus and 38 environmental variables were selected, and the optimized Maxent model and ArcGIS V10.8 software were used to simulate and predict the potential distribution areas of E.dahuricus in China for the present (1970-2020),2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2081-2100). The results showed that (1) the simulated AUC value of MaxEnt model is 0.850,with high simulation accuracy; (2)Temperature seasonality(bio4),min temperature of coldest month(bio6),precipitation of driest quarter(bio17),precipitation seasonality(bio15),cation exchange capacity of topsoil(t_cec_soil) and altitude(elev) were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of E.dahuricus; (3)Presently, the suitable habitats were mainly distributed in Xinjiang, Xizang, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, Liaoning, Chongqing and other provinces.According to our results that the total suitable habitat area will increase under future climate scenarios and the general trend of mass center toward higher latitude.Our results provide wild resource information and theoretical reference for the protection and rational utilization of E.dahuricus.}, }
@article {pmid40410004, year = {2025}, author = {Feng, F and Du, F and Li, Q and Zhang, L and Yu, X and Liu, C}, title = {Corrigendum to "Understanding the ternary interaction of crop plants, fungal pathogens, and rhizobacteria in response to global warming" [Microbial. Res. 296 (2025) 128113].}, journal = {Microbiological research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {128233}, doi = {10.1016/j.micres.2025.128233}, pmid = {40410004}, issn = {1618-0623}, }
@article {pmid40409758, year = {2025}, author = {Markwell, A and De Luca, P and Prime, H}, title = {A call for mixed-methods research on climate change, family systems and child mental health.}, journal = {BMJ paediatrics open}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {40409758}, issn = {2399-9772}, }
@article {pmid40409395, year = {2025}, author = {Wutz, V and Diekmann, M}, title = {Spatial and temporal patterns of lichen occurrence indicate shifts in atmospheric pollution and climate change - A case study from Bremen, North-Western Germany.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {378}, number = {}, pages = {126465}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2025.126465}, pmid = {40409395}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Lichens are used as bioindicators of air pollution and climate change. Despite a few studies from central Germany and the neighbouring Netherlands, the north German lichen flora remains poorly known. In this study we aimed to examine the occurrence of lichens in relation to various environmental drivers and to assess the temporal changes in the lichen flora in response to altered air pollution and climate change. We examined the abundance of epiphytic lichen species in relation to tree characteristics in the city of Bremen in north-western Germany. Trees distributed across 30 grid squares throughout the city were sampled according to the VDI-guideline (3957-13, 2023). The lichen flora was also compared to species lists for Bremen from 1985 and 1995. Tree circumference had significant effects on the abundances of the majority of single species and on total species richness. Most lichens preferred the southern and western sides of the trees and trees of the genera Quercus and Fraxinus (compared to Tilia and Betula). The cumulative number of lichen species had increased since 1985 more than 4 times, while the species composition had changed towards a community of more nitrophytic and fewer acidophytic species, reflecting the current changes in air pollution. Climate change indicator species had increased from zero (1985) to seven (2024), and the mean Ellenberg values indicated a shift towards a lichen flora of more Atlantic species. Our study emphasizes the importance of lichens as bioindicators to track changes in air pollution and climate.}, }
@article {pmid40406503, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, M and Xu, X and Zhang, T and Liu, Z and Wang, X and Shi, X and Peng, W and Wang, X and Chen, Z and Zhao, R and Wang, W and Zhang, Y and Jin, Z and Zhou, Y and Ma, Z}, title = {The dynamics of wild Vitis species in response to climate change facilitate the breeding of grapevine and its rootstocks with climate resilience.}, journal = {Horticulture research}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {uhaf104}, pmid = {40406503}, issn = {2662-6810}, abstract = {Climate change presents significant challenges to agricultural suitability and food security, largely due to the limited adaptability of domesticated crops. However, crop wild relatives maintain greater diversity and are well adapted to various environments. This study evaluates the potential distributional responses of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) and its wild relatives (Vitis spp.) to future climate change using the maximum entropy model. We reveal that the annual mean temperature is the primary factor determining the potential distribution of cultivated grapes. By 2080, under the SSP585 scenario, suitable areas for wine and table grapes are predicted to decline by 1.5 million and 1.3 million km [2], respectively. The results suggest that grape cultivation, especially for table grapes, is highly vulnerable to future climate change. In contrast, approximately 70% of wild grapes are projected to demonstrate robust adaptability to future conditions. For example, wild grapes from North America, such as Vitis rotundifolia and Vitis labrusca, and from East Asia, such as Vitis heyneana and Vitis davidii, are projected to demonstrate significant adaptability in response to future climate change. These wild grapes are valuable genetic resources for improving the resilience of cultivated grapes through rootstock development and breeding programs to face the climate change. Our results predict the potential future distribution areas of wild grapes and highlight the critical role of their genetic resources in grape breeding for promoting adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40405974, year = {2025}, author = {Bertucci, JI and Blanco, AM and Estêvão, MD}, title = {Editorial: Endocrine disruption in marine species: unraveling pollution and climate change effects.}, journal = {Frontiers in endocrinology}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1616931}, doi = {10.3389/fendo.2025.1616931}, pmid = {40405974}, issn = {1664-2392}, }
@article {pmid40403659, year = {2025}, author = {Krochta, M and Anlauf-Dunn, K and Bugni, D and Chang, H}, title = {Effects of climate change on stream temperature and salmonid habitats in a Cascades river basin.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {387}, number = {}, pages = {125843}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125843}, pmid = {40403659}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Rising stream temperatures pose significant challenges to aquatic ecosystems, particularly for coldwater-adapted organisms like salmonids. This study examines the effects of climate change on stream temperatures and salmonid habitats in the Clackamas River Basin, Oregon, USA. Using spatial stream network models and CMIP6 climate projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, we project mid- (2045-2074) and late-century (2075-2100) stream temperature changes. These projections are then integrated with thermal tolerances and intrinsic habitat metrics to assess future habitat suitability for key species, including steelhead, coho, Chinook, and bull trout. Stream temperature trends from 1991 to 2023 reveal basin-wide warming, with high-elevation tributaries demonstrating more resilience to climate impacts while lower-elevation subwatersheds face greater vulnerability. Future projections indicate a basinwide maximum 7-day average of daily maximum stream temperature increases of 1.42 °C-2.04 °C for the midcentury, and 1.84 °C-3.24 °C by the end of the 21st century. These increases reduce the most thermally suitable habitats for steelhead, coho, Chinook, and bull trout by an average of 27 %-36 % during the mid-century time period, and 35 %-51 % by the end-of-century time period. By linking climate-driven temperature projections with habitat metrics, we identify priority subwatersheds based on projected thermal suitability where conservation efforts can maximize impact.}, }
@article {pmid40403438, year = {2025}, author = {Caraballo-Betancort, AM and Marcilla-Toribio, I and Notario-Pacheco, B and Cekrezi, S and Perez-Moreno, A and Martinez-Andres, M}, title = {Health professionals' perceptions of climate change: A systematic review of qualitative studies.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {245}, number = {}, pages = {105773}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2025.105773}, pmid = {40403438}, issn = {1476-5616}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To understand health professionals' perceptions of climate change and its impact on health and their perceived role.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: This was a systematic review of qualitative studies.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic review of qualitative evidence from three databases (MEDLINE, CINHAL and PsycInfo) was conducted according to the Cochrane method in June 2024. The PRISMA 2020 guidelines were followed for the synthesis report.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 215 results were obtained, of which 10 studies were included on the basis of the inclusion criteria. The selected studies included predominantly nurses, physicians and public health professionals, with a smaller representation of other allied health professionals from Europe, North America and Africa. These studies were published between 2015 and 2024. Three themes were identified: "general knowledge of climate change", "role of health professionals in addressing climate change" and "barriers to action on climate change". Health professionals are aware of the health risks posed by climate change, but some barriers prevent or hinder their action. The main barriers are poor, overly generalised information and training, and a demotivating environment.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Health professionals are aware of the existence and dangers of climate change but are less aware of their role in the face of climate change. Contextualised training and an enabling environment are needed. It is essential to study the perceptions of each group of health professionals at the national or subnational level.}, }
@article {pmid40403301, year = {2025}, author = {Geiger, SJ and Köhler, JK and Delabrida, ZNC and Garduño-Realivazquez, KA and Haugestad, CAP and Imada, H and Iyer, A and Maharja, C and Mann, DC and Marczak, M and Melville, O and Nijssen, SRR and Powdthavee, N and Praptiwi, RA and Ranade, G and Rosa, CD and Vitale, V and Winkowska, M and Zhang, L and White, MP}, title = {What We Think Others Think and Do About Climate Change: A Multicountry Test of Pluralistic Ignorance and Public-Consensus Messaging.}, journal = {Psychological science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {9567976251335585}, doi = {10.1177/09567976251335585}, pmid = {40403301}, issn = {1467-9280}, abstract = {Most people believe in human-caused climate change, yet this public consensus can be collectively underestimated (pluralistic ignorance). Across two studies using primary data (n = 3,653 adult participants; 11 countries) and secondary data (ns = 60,230 and 22,496 adult participants; 55 countries), we tested (a) the generalizability of pluralistic ignorance about climate-change beliefs, (b) the effects of a public-consensus intervention on climate action, and (c) the possibility that cultural tightness-looseness might serve as a country-level predictor of pluralistic ignorance. In Study 1, people across 11 countries underestimated the prevalence of proclimate views by at least 7.5% in Indonesia (90% credible interval, or CrI = [5.0, 10.1]), and up to 20.8% in Brazil (90% CrI = [18.2, 23.4]. Providing information about the actual public consensus on climate change was largely ineffective, except for a slight increase in willingness to express one's proclimate opinion, δ = 0.05 (90% CrI = [-0.02, 0.11]). In Study 2, pluralistic ignorance about willingness to contribute financially to fight climate change was slightly more pronounced in looser than tighter cultures, highlighting the particular need for pluralistic-ignorance research in these countries.}, }
@article {pmid40403059, year = {2025}, author = {Feehan, CJ and Filbee-Dexter, K}, title = {The silent signals of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {388}, number = {6749}, pages = {816-817}, doi = {10.1126/science.adx8707}, pmid = {40403059}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Kelp ; *Coral Reefs ; }, abstract = {Climate-driven changes to the chemical landscape of reefs affect the recovery of kelp forests.}, }
@article {pmid40402609, year = {2025}, author = {Armstrong, HE and Parker, PC and Ortner, CNM}, title = {Emotions and climate change: The role of emotion regulation in climate action.}, journal = {Emotion (Washington, D.C.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1037/emo0001546}, pmid = {40402609}, issn = {1931-1516}, support = {//Thompson Rivers University/ ; }, abstract = {Although there is strong evidence for the role of emotion in climate change-mitigating behaviors (Brosch, 2021), little is known about the role of emotion regulation in climate action (Panno et al., 2015). Our studies (a correlational study and an experiment, conducted in 2022) investigated the role of emotion regulation in emotional responses to climate change and the likelihood of taking climate change-mitigating actions. In Study 1, 151 participants from the United States and Canada read about the detrimental effects of climate change before recording their emotional responses, emotion regulation strategies used in response to climate change information, and climate actions (proenvironmental behaviors and civic engagement in environmental actions). Some emotion regulation strategies predicted climate action, including when controlling for demographic variables. In Study 2, 245 participants from the United States watched a video on the negative consequences of climate change, rated their emotions, and were randomly assigned to distraction, worrying, or positive reappraisal in response to the video. Next, they were given the option to sign an environmental petition and donate money to an environmental organization before rating their intentions to engage in climate actions. Distraction reduced negative emotion, and positive reappraisal increased hope. The effects of emotion regulation on engagement in climate action were mixed. Exploratory mediation analyses indicated that worrying and reappraisal increased intentions to engage in climate action via negative emotion. Further experimental research on the effects of emotion regulation on climate action will be important for informing communications about climate change to protect mental health while motivating action. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).}, }
@article {pmid40400099, year = {2025}, author = {Kube, T and Huhn, J and Menzel, C}, title = {Optimistic bias in updating beliefs about climate change longitudinally predicts low pro-environmental behaviour.}, journal = {The British journal of social psychology}, volume = {64}, number = {3}, pages = {e12905}, pmid = {40400099}, issn = {2044-8309}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; Male ; *Climate Change ; Adult ; Longitudinal Studies ; Young Adult ; *Optimism/psychology ; Adolescent ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Middle Aged ; *Attitude ; }, abstract = {We investigated the preregistered hypothesis that an optimistic bias in updating beliefs about climate change (i.e., integrating good news more than bad news) cross-sectionally (NStudy 1 = 109) and longitudinally (NStudy 2 = 407) predicts self-reported pro-environmental behaviour (PEB). To test this, we employed an experimental task in which participants were presented with multiple climate change scenarios and asked to update their beliefs after receiving scientific evidence. Additionally, we investigated whether biased belief updating and PEB could be altered by brief experimental interventions providing information on different aspects of climate change. Results show that optimistically biased belief updating did not predict PEB cross-sectionally, but did predict PEB 4 weeks later, while controlling for baseline levels of PEB. The experimental interventions did not significantly alter belief updating or increase PEB, although there were significant gender differences. The results suggest that an optimistic bias in belief updating longitudinally predicts low engagement in PEB, possibly because selectively integrating good news over bad news reduces the perceived urgency to take action. Yet the effect may be small and detectable only in sufficiently large samples. The results also indicate that it is challenging to modify this bias. Implications for research on attitude change, social cognition and PEB are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid40399408, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, X and Sun, Q and Li, T and Wang, S and Shen, J and Sun, Y and Li, M}, title = {Predicting current and future potential distribution of Changnienia amoena in China under global climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {17640}, pmid = {40399408}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; China ; *Orchidaceae/physiology/growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Changnienia amoena is a terrestrial orchid endemic to China and holds significant ornamental and medicinal value. Understanding the current and future potential geographic distribution patterns of C. amoena under climate change is crucial for its effective conservation and sustainable development. This study uses 48 distribution records and 19 environmental variables to simulate and predict the potential distribution and spatial pattern changes of C. amoena under different future gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for both the 2050s and 2090s. The dominant environmental variables influencing its distribution were also identified. The MaxEnt model yielded an AUC of 0.990 and CBI of 0.959, indicating extremely high predictive accuracy. The key environmental variables influencing the distribution of C. amoena include the minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio06), annual precipitation (Bio12), isothermality (Bio03), land use classification, slope, topsoil USDA texture classification, elevation, and topsoil calcium carbonate. Among these, temperature and precipitation have relatively significant impacts on the distribution of C. amoena. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the suitable habitat for C. amoena shows a slight contraction, while under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the suitable habitat shifts and expands significantly towards the northwest, higher latitude and altitude areas. This research has important scientific significance and practical guidance value for the in-situ conservation, ex-situ cultivation, and sustainable utilization of C. amoena.}, }
@article {pmid40399233, year = {2025}, author = {Lin, CY and Cha, EJ}, title = {Evaluating the impact of climate change on hurricane wind risk: A machine learning approach.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.70042}, pmid = {40399233}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {In the residential sector, hurricane winds are a major contributor to storm-related losses, with substantial annual costs to the US economy. With the potential increase in hurricane intensity in changing climate conditions, hurricane impacts are expected to worsen. Current hurricane risk management practices are based on the hurricane risk assessment without considering climate impact, which would result in a higher level of risk for the built environment than expected. It is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on hurricane risk to develop effective hurricane risk management strategies. However, investigation of future hurricane risk can be very time-consuming because of the high resolution of the models for climate-dependent hazard simulation and regional loss assessment. This study aims to investigate the climate change impact on hurricane wind risk on residential buildings across the southeastern US coastal states. To address the challenge of computational inefficiency, we develop surrogate models using machine learning techniques for evaluating wind and rain-ingress losses of simulated climate-dependent hurricane scenarios. We collect historical hurricane data and use selected climate variables to predict changing hurricane attributes under climate change. We build the surrogate loss model using data generated by the existing fragility-based loss model. The loss estimation of synthetic events using the surrogate model shows an accuracy with a 0.78 R-squared value compared to Hazard U.S. - Multi Hazard (HAZUS-MH) estimation. The results demonstrate the feasibility of utilizing surrogate models to predict risk changes and underline the increasing hurricane wind risk due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40398280, year = {2025}, author = {Zhu, X and Dong, H and Huang, Y and Ren, W}, title = {Assessing ozone pollution and climate change impacts on winter wheat: flux modeling vs. dose-response modeling.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {387}, number = {}, pages = {125767}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125767}, pmid = {40398280}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Surface ozone is a phytotoxic pollutant that damages photosynthetic systems, reduces gas exchange, retards vegetation growth, and decreases yield. In this study, we developed a new ozone flux module within an agroecosystem model framework to enhance our ability to understand, measure, and predict the impact of surface ozone on agricultural productivity. The new module was calibrated and evaluated against historical observational data from multiple sites. It was then applied to predict winter wheat yield and gross primary productivity (GPP) in response to future ozone changes under different climate scenarios. The new ozone flux model was more sensitive to ozone concentration changes than the ozone dose-response model, demonstrating greater GPP and yield losses at the same ozone pollution level. We also investigated several key environmental factors (temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide) and their synergistic effects with and without ozone to explore the complexity of ozone pollution impacts under climate change. The simulation results indicate a worsening food crisis, driven by interannual trends in crop losses from ozone pollution under high- and moderate-emission scenarios. A more accurate understanding and qualification of ozone's effects on crop growth and yield is essential for safeguarding food security.}, }
@article {pmid40398173, year = {2025}, author = {Bitarafan, Z and Mageroy, MH and de Andrade Moral, R and Salehan, N and Nielsen, KS and Andreasen, C}, title = {The effect of climate change on glyphosate control of Avena fatua, Brassica napus, and Echinochloa crus-galli.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {983}, number = {}, pages = {179682}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179682}, pmid = {40398173}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures have significantly increased, accompanied by substantial changes in precipitation patterns. These changes are anticipated to intensify in the future. In Nordic regions, increasing temperatures can improve growing conditions for some crops by extending the growing season and expanding cultivation northward. Climate changes may also favour some weed species, potentially reducing crop yield and affecting herbicide efficacy. To assess glyphosate efficacy under future climate conditions, we conducted two dose-response experiments on barnyard grass (Echinochloa crus-galli- C4 plant), oilseed rape (Brassica napus- C3 plant) and wild oat (Avena fatua- C3 plant). Plants were grown under ambient conditions (400 ppm CO2 at 18/12 °C (day/night)) and predicted future conditions (800 ppm CO2 at 20.5/14.5 °C (day/night)). Glyphosate was applied at 3-4 - leaf-stage in doses of 0, 8.75, 17.5, 35, 70, 140, 420, 1260, and 2520 g active ingredient (a.i.) ha[-1], with the highest dose only included in the second experiment. Chlorophyll fluorescence was measured 48 h after spraying. Two days after spraying, oilseed rape exhibited stress symptoms under both growing conditions, while barnyard grass showed symptoms only under future conditions and doses exceeding 6 g a.i. ha[-1]. Plants were harvested 72 h after spraying for transcriptome analysis and two weeks after spraying to determine dry weight, C%, N% and C/N ratio. The ED50 and ED90 values did not significantly differ between the two environments for each grass species. However, oilseed rape required significantly higher glyphosate doses to reduce dry weight by 50 and 90 % at ambient growing conditions, likely due to the faster translocation of glyphosate. This suggests that glyphosate doses can be reduced in a warmer climate with an elevated CO2 level. No apparent differences in the C%, N%, or C/N ratio were observed between environments for any species. Transcriptome analysis indicated that all species respond differently to glyphosate and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40397250, year = {2025}, author = {Black, K and McCullagh, A and Redmond, J and Blujdea, VNB and Pilli, R}, title = {Evaluation of climate change mitigation strategies for Irish forests using the CBM-CFS3 model.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {10}, pmid = {40397250}, issn = {1750-0680}, support = {101056875//HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council/ ; 101056875//HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Irish Forestry greenhouse gas (GHG) profile is undergoing a transition from a net sink to net emission because of persisting emissions from organic soils, an increase in harvest and shifts in the age class structure of plantation forests. The forestry GHG trend diverges from the required National and European Union (EU) policy pathway for land use land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and agriculture aimed at halving emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. A recalibrated version of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Service (CBM-CFS3) was used to assess the impact of identified national forest policy measures on the forest GHG profile over the short to long term.<br><br>RESULTS: An analysis of projected scenarios revealed that, under current silvicultural practices and afforestation policies (with existing measures-WEMs), Irish forests will continue to be a long-term emission beyond 2070 unless harvest rates and management practices are adjusted to negate the adverse impact of emissions from organic soils and fluctuations in historic afforestation rates. The implementation of additional measures (WAM) suggests that the forest sink can be sustained if harvest rates exceed 75% of the net annual increment (NAI), additional afforestation targets are met and if plantation rotation age is increased. Although additional afforestation and a reduction in deforestation is required to meet long-term carbon-neutral goals, the implementation of these policies has a minimal short-term impact on the 2030 targets set out under the National Climate Change Plan (CAP 24) and the revised EU LULUCF regulation (841/2023).<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results show that the extension of rotation age and associated reductions in harvest levels will have the greatest short-term impact on climate change mitigation, which can be delivered at a negative marginal abatement cost. However, even if WAM forest measures are implemented, Ireland is unlikely to meet the National and EU LULUCF targets by 2030 because of a decreasing forest sink.}, }
@article {pmid40396747, year = {2025}, author = {Brasil, LS and Silvério, DV and Silva, JOA and Santos, WS and de Melo, LV and Juen, L and França, FM and Vieira, TB}, title = {Potential geographic displacement of Chagas disease vectors under climate change.}, journal = {Medical and veterinary entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/mve.12810}, pmid = {40396747}, issn = {1365-2915}, support = {311468/2022-5//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico do Brasil (CNPq)/ ; 304710/2019-9//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico do Brasil (CNPq)/ ; 305929/2022-4//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico do Brasil (CNPq)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is projected to profoundly alter global biodiversity with significant implications for vector-borne disease dynamics. In tropical regions, rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns influence the distribution and behaviour of insect disease vectors, thereby affecting disease transmission cycles. Chagas disease, caused by the Trypanosoma cruzi and transmitted by triatomine bugs, is a major public health concern in Latin America. Brazil is particularly vulnerable to climate-driven vector redistribution due to its vast land area, diverse ecosystems and rapid land-use changes. Using ecological niche modelling and 11,640 unique occurrence records, we assessed the potential geographic displacement of 55 triatomine species under two climate scenarios: a moderate warming scenario (SSP2-4.5) and a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) for 2050 and 2080. While projections for 2050 suggest stability in vector distributions, our models indicate a substantial shift by 2080, with increasing suitability for vector populations in the Brazilian Amazon, particularly in the deforestation arc. This expansion could exacerbate Chagas disease risk in previously unaffected regions, where socioeconomically vulnerable populations face poor housing conditions that facilitate vector-human contact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for proactive vector surveillance, public health interventions and climate-adaptive disease prevention strategies to mitigate potential epidemiological risks associated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40396145, year = {2025}, author = {Cunha, J and Martins, J and Núñez, JC and Vallejo, G and Rosário, P}, title = {Adolescents' agency toward climate change: development and validation of scales for individual, proxy, and collective modes.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1532409}, pmid = {40396145}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {In a rapidly evolving world, human agency serves as a driving force to shape a more sustainable future. The climate crisis is an example of how individuals must be proactive and take action to mitigate this environmental problem through three modes of agency advocated by Bandura: individual, proxy, and collective. This is even more relevant for adolescents, who will most suffer climate change consequences. However, instruments assessing adolescents' agency modes toward climate change are still lacking. To address this gap, we present the development and validation of three theoretically based scales for assessing each mode of adolescents' agency toward climate change (AGENTC2). The AGENTC2-Scales were developed based on a literature search, expert review, and consultation with a panel of adolescents. The AGENTC2-Scales were then empirically tested with 1,114 adolescents, and their psychometric properties were assessed, providing evidence of validity (i.e., content, structural, and convergent), measurement invariance (sex and school grade), internal consistency, and test-retest reliability. Data showed that the AGENTC2-Scales can be used to measure each mode of agency toward climate change and their properties validly and reliably. Further research is needed to extend the validation of the scales in other countries.}, }
@article {pmid40395284, year = {2025}, author = {Feng, Y and Dai, G and Li, H and Chai, Y and Bao, R and Wang, M and Luo, C and Qin, Y}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Keteleeria evelyniana Mast. in southwest China: a Maxent modeling approach.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1561031}, pmid = {40395284}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Keteleeria evelyniana Mast., which is widespread in southwestern China, is valuable for studying under different future climate scenarios to assess potential distribution shifts in response to climate warming. Understanding these changes can provide theoretical support for species conservation, rational utilization, ecological restoration, and management of K. evelyniana habitats. The Maxent model was optimized using the package of ENMeval to adjust the Regularization Multiplier (RM) and Feature Class Combinations (FC) parameters. Utilizing 221 effective distribution points and 33 environmental variables, the potential distribution of K. evelyniana in current and future climate scenarios was predicted, with the key environmental variables analyzed. The model with FC = LQ and RM = 0.5, demonstrated low complexity, minimal overfitting, and high accuracy, achieving an AUC value of 0.946 with a standard deviation of 0.011. Under the current climate conditions, 68% of the suitable areas for K. evelyniana were focused on Yunnan Province, with additional areas in western and southwestern Guizhou, southwestern Sichuan, and the southeastern Xizang Autonomous Region. In various future climate scenarios, the suitable areas for K. evelyniana gradually decreased, with a maximum reduction of 33%. Simultaneously, the centroids of these areas are expected to migrate northward by up to 33 km. Temperature was the dominant factor affecting its distribution (77.8%), whereas the effects of soil variables and altitude were significant. This study clarified the current distribution of K. evelyniana, projected the potential shifts under different future climate scenarios, and identified the main environmental factors affecting the distribution. These findings offer valuable theoretical support for the conservation, ecological restoration, and sustainable use of K. evelyniana.}, }
@article {pmid40392855, year = {2025}, author = {Moutouama, JK and Compagnoni, A and Miller, TEX}, title = {Forecasting range shifts of dioecious plants under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {21}, pages = {e2422162122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2422162122}, pmid = {40392855}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {2208857//NSF | BIO | Division of Environmental Biology (DEB)/ ; 2225027//NSF | BIO | Division of Environmental Biology (DEB)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Models, Biological ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Sex Ratio ; Male ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Global climate change has triggered an urgent need for predicting the reorganization of Earth's biodiversity. For dioecious species (those with separate sexes), it is unclear how commonly unique climate sensitivities of females and males could influence projections for species-level responses to climate change. We developed demographic models of range limitation, parameterized from geographically distributed common garden experiments, with females and males of a dioecious grass species (Poa arachnifera) throughout and beyond its range in the south-central U.S. We contrasted predictions of a standard female-dominant model with those of a two-sex model that accounts for feedbacks between sex ratio and vital rates. Both model versions predict that future climate change will induce a poleward shift of niche suitability beyond current northern limits. However, the magnitude of the poleward shift was underestimated by the female-dominant model because females have broader temperature tolerance than males but become mate-limited under female-biased sex ratios, which are forecasted to become more common under future climate. Our results illustrate how explicitly accounting for both sexes can enhance population viability forecasts and conservation planning for dioecious species in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40391693, year = {2025}, author = {Verdú, G and Vallvé, M and San-José, P and Molina, A and Merino, A}, title = {Diagnostic Value of Botryoid Nuclei as a Biomarker of Severe Hyperthermia and Systemic Inflammation in Heatstroke and Neuroleptic Malignant Syndrome: A Challenge of Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of laboratory hematology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ijlh.14500}, pmid = {40391693}, issn = {1751-553X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: With the increasing frequency of heat waves due to climate change, heat-related illnesses are becoming more common. Heatstroke is a life-threatening condition characterized by hyperthermia and multiple organ failure. A rare morphological feature, botryoid nuclei, has been identified in the peripheral blood of patients with hyperthermia, but its significance is not well understood. This study investigates the diagnostic value of botryoid neutrophils as a potential marker of severe hyperthermia and systemic inflammation in heatstroke and neuroleptic malignant syndrome.<br><br>METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of six patients with hyperthermia who were admitted to the Hospital Cl&#xed;nic of Barcelona and the Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau during the summers of 2023 and 2024. Peripheral blood smears were analyzed using CellaVision DM9600, MC-80, and DI60 analyzers. Blood cell counts were obtained using Advia 2120i and Sysmex XN analyzers. Biochemical parameters were measured using Atellica Solutions and Alinity analyzers.<br><br>RESULTS: Among the six cases, five were diagnosed with heatstroke and one with neuroleptic malignant syndrome. All patients exhibited botryoid nuclei in leucocytes (8% to 29%), more frequently observed in neutrophils. Hematologic findings included leucocytosis, neutrophilia with left shift, and thrombocytopenia. Biochemical analysis revealed significant organ dysfunction, including elevated liver enzymes, renal failure, and increased inflammatory markers, such as procalcitonin and lactic acid.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Botryoid-nuclei leucocytes may serve as a diagnostic marker for hyperthermia-related conditions, including heatstroke and neuroleptic malignant syndrome. This finding underscores the relevance of early recognition and intervention in patients presenting with hyperthermia and systemic inflammation.}, }
@article {pmid40390426, year = {2025}, author = {Huang, WT and Dai, QY and Xu, Y and Feng, YX and Zou, B and Lu, YG}, title = {[Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Dynamics in Typical Lake Basins of China].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {2987-2996}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.202405006}, pmid = {40390426}, issn = {0250-3301}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; China ; Lakes ; *Ecosystem ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Plant Development ; *Anthropogenic Effects ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Monitoring vegetation dynamics and isolating as well as quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation cover changes are crucial for providing theoretical support for maintaining regional ecological balance and scientifically planning ecological restoration. This study focuses on the Dongting, Poyang, and Taihu Lake basins. Using multi-temporal normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） data, meteorological data, and land use data and employing methods, such as trend analysis, first-order difference multiple regression analysis, and residual analysis, this research investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of vegetation NDVI changes in these basins from 2000 to 2022, distinguishing between natural growth areas and anthropogenic impact areas. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2022, vegetation in the Dongting, Poyang, and Taihu Lake basins, including both anthropogenic impact areas and natural growth areas, exhibited a greening trend. Overall, compared to precipitation and solar radiation, the NDVI of vegetation in the three major lake basins was more sensitive to temperature. Vegetation growth in these basins exhibited a consistently positive sensitivity to temperature, whereas it predominantly showed a negative sensitivity to precipitation. Climate change has promoted an increase in vegetation NDVI across the three lake basins. In anthropogenic impact areas, human activities predominantly drove the changes in vegetation NDVI, with the effects being bidirectional. Specifically, in the Dongting and Poyang Lake basins, human activities mainly had a positive impact on vegetation NDVI, whereas in the Taihu Lake Basin, the impact was predominantly negative.}, }
@article {pmid40389304, year = {2025}, author = {Tao, TJ and Estes, KD and Holman, EA and Vahedifard, F and Silver, RC}, title = {Understanding climate change anxiety and anticipatory climate disaster stress: A survey of residents in a high-risk California county during wildfire season.}, journal = {BMJ mental health}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjment-2024-301331}, pmid = {40389304}, issn = {2755-9734}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Wildfires ; Female ; California/epidemiology ; Male ; Adult ; *Anxiety/epidemiology/psychology ; Middle Aged ; *Stress, Psychological/epidemiology/psychology ; Young Adult ; *Disasters ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Aged ; Adolescent ; *Anticipation, Psychological ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: With the increasing prevalence of climate-related disasters, psychological responses, including climate change anxiety and anticipatory climate disaster stress, have received heightened attention.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: We investigate the correlates of climate change anxiety and anticipatory climate disaster stress, as well as the nature of these psychological responses.<br><br>METHODS: At the start of the annual fire season (June to August 2023), we recruited a county-representative sample of n=813 residents of Lake County, in Northern California, to complete an anonymous online survey. Multiple regression analyses identified correlates of climate change anxiety and anticipatory climate disaster stress and explored how anxiety and stress were associated with disaster preparedness.<br><br>FINDINGS: Climate change anxiety, assessed via its cognitive-emotional impairment (odds ratio (OR)loss/injury=1.68; ORmedia=2.37) and functional impairment (ORloss/injury=1.68; ORmedia=2.63) subfactors, and anticipatory climate disaster stress (bloss/injury=0.15, bmedia=0.26) were associated with previous wildfire-induced loss/injury and media exposure to wildfire-related content. Anticipatory climate disaster stress was also associated with the frequency of being in an evacuation zone (b=0.05). Both the cognitive-emotional impairment subfactor of climate change anxiety (incidence rate ratio (IRR)=1.23) and anticipatory climate disaster stress (IRR=1.14) were associated with preparing an emergency kit and power outage supplies; anticipatory climate disaster stress was associated with evacuation intentions should an actual fire occur (b=0.12).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Prior experiences with climate disasters could explain people's psychological responses to climate change. These responses could be temporally appropriate and functionally adaptive, given the immediacy of a potential fire.<br><br>CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Climate change anxiety and anticipatory climate disaster stress should not be oversimplified as typical clinical symptoms because their presence might motivate adaptive self-protective behaviours in the face of an upcoming disaster.}, }
@article {pmid40389117, year = {2025}, author = {Rudroff, T}, title = {Climate crossroads: How global warming drives coronavirus emergence, the long COVID crisis of tomorrow, and AI's role in navigating our future.}, journal = {Infectious diseases now}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {105091}, doi = {10.1016/j.idnow.2025.105091}, pmid = {40389117}, issn = {2666-9919}, abstract = {This narrative review examines the critical nexus between climate change, coronavirus emergence, and Long COVID-a triad that may shape public health outcomes for generations. Climate change disrupts ecological balances that have historically limited viral spillover events, creating novel interfaces between wildlife reservoirs and human populations. The coronavirus family presents particular concern due to its diversity, adaptability, and demonstrated capacity for cross-species transmission. With over 200 coronaviruses identified in bat populations alone, this vast reservoir of genetic diversity, combined with the family's propensity for recombination, creates substantial pandemic potential that climate disruption may further amplify. Long COVID has revealed another dimension of the coronavirus threat: the potential for significant chronic disease burden following acute infection. This complex multisystem condition affects a substantial portion of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals, with mechanisms including viral persistence, autoimmunity, microclot formation, and mitochondrial dysfunction. Future projections suggest that climate change could increase global viral spillover risk by 30-45% by 2070, particularly in Southeast Asia, Central Africa, and parts of South America. Artificial intelligence offers promising tools for addressing these interconnected challenges through enhanced surveillance, accelerated therapeutic development, and optimized healthcare delivery. Understanding the climate-coronavirus-chronic illness nexus has become essential to the development of resilient health systems and effective planetary health policies face to an uncertain future.}, }
@article {pmid40389056, year = {2025}, author = {Feng, X and Tian, J and Wu, J and Wu, G and Ren, Y and He, C and Bao, W and Yu, T}, title = {Exploring the Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics and the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Global Grassland Based on kNDVI.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {121884}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.121884}, pmid = {40389056}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Grasslands provide essential resources and maintain ecological balance, yet about 40% of the world's grasslands have degraded due to climate change and human activities. To investigate the impact of these factors on global grassland coverage from 2001 to 2023, the Kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) was calculated using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Spatio-temporal variations in global grassland kNDVI were analyzed with the Mann-Kendall mutation (M-K-M) test, Theil-Sen slope analysis, and the Mann-Kendall test. Partial correlation and residual analysis identified the factors influencing kNDVI changes. Results showed significant spatial heterogeneity in global grassland kNDVI, with higher values in the Southern Hemisphere and lower values in the Northern Hemisphere. Over time, global grassland kNDVI increased at a rate of 0.00043/a, with no significant mutation spots identified. However, significant mutations were detected in most Köppen climate zones except Am. Spatially, 34.57% of regions showed kNDVI degradation, while 65.43% improved. Driving factor analysis indicated that kNDVI was negatively correlated with mean annual temperature but positively correlated with total annual precipitation. Human activities positively impacted kNDVI in 73.25% of cases. The smallest area of degradation (5.80%) was due to human activity, while the least improvement (6.17%) resulted from climate change. In summary, we concluded that there has been a rising trend in the global grassland kNDVI. Changes in the vegetation coverage of grasslands around the world were caused by human activities and the effects of climate change. This study offered useful theoretical frameworks and data references for managing grasslands and restoring degraded areas.}, }
@article {pmid40388200, year = {2025}, author = {Hosseini, N and Mostafavi, H and Ghorbanpour, M}, title = {Forecasting the Future Distribution of zataria multiflora in Iran Affecting by Climate Change: A MaxEnt Approach.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/inteam/vjaf043}, pmid = {40388200}, issn = {1551-3793}, abstract = {Climate change, driven by both natural and human influences, presents serious threats to biodiversity and the distribution of species over the coming decades. To examine the effects of climate change on species distribution and habitat suitability, researchers have widely employed Species Distribution Models (SDMs). This study specifically investigated Zataria multiflora, a valuable medicinal plant found in Iranian rangelands. The aim was to identify the critical factors influencing the distribution of Z. multiflora and assess how climate change may affect its range. The researchers utilized the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt), incorporating eight environmental variables: maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the coldest quarter, depth to bedrock, slope, and solar radiation. The results indicated that solar radiation, slope, precipitation during the warmest quarter (bio17), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio5) were the most significant factors affecting the species' distribution. Projections suggest a potential decrease in the species' range by 43.98%, 51.60%, 54.20%, and 68.10% under RCPs 4.5-2050, 8.5-2050, 4.5-2070, and 8.5-2070, respectively. These insights can assist decision-makers in developing effective conservation strategies to protect and sustainably manage Z. multiflora in light of global climate change. Given the expected habitat loss, in-situ conservation efforts should be prioritized for the protection of Z. multiflora.}, }
@article {pmid40384421, year = {2025}, author = {Bahrami, G and Ghavidel, N and Mahmoodi, Z and McDermott, R and Seddighi, H}, title = {The health effects of climate change: identifying strategies, policies, and knowledge gaps: an umbrella review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-18}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2025.2498624}, pmid = {40384421}, issn = {1369-1619}, abstract = {Climate change has emerged as a significant global challenge with profound implications for human health. This umbrella review synthesizes findings from systematic reviews and meta-analyses to examine the health impacts of climate change and identify strategies to mitigate these effects. This is an umbrella study conducted in major health and biomedical databases, including PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, Scopus, and Google Scholar, for articles published between 2011 and 2021. The search strategy followed the protocol published in BMJ Journal in 2020. The selected articles underwent a rigorous screening process based on predefined inclusion criteria. A total of 37 systematic review articles were included in the study. The thematic analysis identified a range of strategies and policies aimed at mitigating the health effects of climate change, including adaptation measures, public health interventions, and interdisciplinary collaborations. The analysis also revealed significant knowledge gaps in certain areas, highlighting the need for further research. The identified strategies and policies offer valuable insights for policymakers, healthcare professionals, and researchers. By integrating these findings into evidence-based policies and practices, we can enhance our ability to mitigate the adverse health impacts of climate change and promote resilience in the face of this global challenge.}, }
@article {pmid40383884, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, B and Li, LG and Chen, ZJ}, title = {Spatio-temporal variation of climate productivity of vegetation and its responses to climate change in three provinces of Northeast China.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {12}, pages = {3339-3348}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202412.035}, pmid = {40383884}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; China ; *Ecosystem ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Temperature ; Rain ; Plant Transpiration/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate productivity is a key indicator reflecting carbon exchange of plant communities. Clarifying changes in climate productivity is of great significance for assessing the carbon sink function of ecosystems. We used the Miami and Thornthwaite-Memorial models to simulate temperature-, precipitation- and evapotranspiration-producti-vity in the three northeastern provinces based on temperature and precipitation data from 1971 to 2020. We used trend analysis, wavelet analysis, M-K test and regression analysis to explicitly analyze the spatial and temporal variations of climate productivity, and model the changing characteristics of evapotranspiration productivity under future climate change scenarios. We further explored the accuracy of the test for climate productivity in conjunction with data from Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica tree-ring data at 11 sampling sites in the three northeastern provinces. Results showed that the annual averages of temperature productivity (YT), precipitation productivity (YP) and evapotranspiration productivity (YE) in the three northeastern provinces during 1971-2020 were 777.84, 946.08, and 930.4 g·m[-2]·a[-1], respectively. All the three types of climate productivity generally showed increasing trends. The increasing trend of temperature productivity was the most significant, increasing at a rate of 1.91 g·m[-2]·a[-1], existence of 6, 10, 22 years major periodic, and had abrupt change in 1988. There were significant differences in the spatial distribution of climate productivity. Temperature productivity decreased from south to north, with overall increasing trend in climate tendency rates. Precipitation productivity and evapotranspiration productivity decreased from southeast to northwest, which was higher in the east than in the west. Their climate tendency rates showed a decreasing trend in most areas, with an increasing trend occurred in western Heilongjiang and northwestern Jilin. The water-heat ratios of climate productivity in the three northeastern provinces were generally banded with significant spatial variations, with the ratios ranging from 0.58 to 2.42. From north to south, it could be divided into areas that were more affected by precipitation (YP/YT>1.2), water-heat balance (YP/YT≈1), and more affected by temperature (YP/YT<0.8), respectively. The three climate productivities were generally consistent with change in the mean annual tree-ring width index of P. sylvestris var. mongolica at the 11 sampling sites, which was positively correlated, indicating that the modelled climate productivity was reliable. The correlation coefficients between temperature productivity and the width of the annual tree-ring of P. sylvestris var. mongolica decreased significantly with increasing latitude. Our results could improve the understanding of carbon sequestration capacity of vegetation associated with climate productivity in the three northeastern provinces, which would provide a scientific basis for the adaptation of vegetation to climate change and the prediction of future vegetation dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid40382958, year = {2025}, author = {Zabihi, O and Ahmadi, A and Haghighi, AT}, title = {A framework for assessing uncertainties in drought projections under climate change: Insights from CMIP6 models.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {982}, number = {}, pages = {179679}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179679}, pmid = {40382958}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on hydrology and drought is commonly assessed using General Circulation Models (GCMs), which introduce considerable uncertainty. This study presents a structured framework to evaluate these uncertainties, focusing on key hydrological parameters and drought characteristics. A multi-criteria statistical approach was used to assess the performance of three selected CMIP6 GCMs- ACCESS-CM2, CanESM5, and ACCESS-ESM1-5- under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Drought conditions were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the latter capturing temperature-driven evapotranspiration. The uncertainty framework integrates a Bayesian probabilistic method for estimating the distribution of drought classifications and a polynomial-based decomposition approach to evaluate the temporal evolution of uncertainty. Applied to six major Iranian watersheds, CanESM5 under SSP585 projected the most extreme outcomes, including a 1.71-fold increase in annual precipitation in the Eastern border watershed and a 0.87-fold decrease in the Persian Gulf watershed. The highest temperature increase, 2.97 °C, was observed in the Caspian Sea watershed. Results indicate a higher probability of normal drought conditions across all watersheds, followed by moderately dry and moderately wet events. Temperature projections showed greater sensitivity to emission scenarios than precipitation, and uncertainties, particularly from GCMs and emission pathways, increased over time. The combined use of Bayesian inference and variance decomposition provides a robust framework for quantifying both the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in drought projections.}, }
@article {pmid40381636, year = {2025}, author = {Ebi, KL and Hess, JJ and Stuart-Smith, RF and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Woodward, A and Haines, A}, title = {Considerations for improving the relevance, use, and robustness of projections of the health risks of climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e442-e447}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00089-0}, pmid = {40381636}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Gases ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {The increased interest and investment in climate change and health research and policy should be a turning point for providing policy-relevant projections of how changing weather patterns and climate trends could alter the magnitude and distribution of climate-sensitive health outcomes. Decision makers recognise that future health burdens result from interactions between exposure, sensitivity, and the capacity to adapt. Fit-for-purpose projections to inform climate risk management should be based on a range of scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socioeconomic development. The relevance, use, and robustness of projections would be improved by addressing the considerations outlined here.}, }
@article {pmid40381635, year = {2025}, author = {Tonne, C and Sieber, S and Filippidou, F and Tsiropoulos, I and Petropoulou, V and Kiesewetter, G and Klimont, Z and Höglund-Isaksson, L and Witzke, P and Springmann, M and Pozzer, A and Lelieveld, J and Hamilton, I and Hsu, SC and Nieuwenhuijsen, M and Velázquez-Cortés, D and van den Bosch, M and Sazdovski, I and Santamaria, M and de'Donato, F and Dasandi, N}, title = {Promoting health through climate change mitigation in Europe.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e431-e441}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00085-3}, pmid = {40381635}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Europe ; *Health Promotion ; European Union ; }, abstract = {Several EU climate change mitigation policies have the potential to deliver health co-benefits. However, existing frameworks guiding research in this area lack important details that are needed to understand how evidence of health co-benefits can be used to support the ambition and acceptability of EU climate policy. In this Personal View, we propose an integrated framework for advancing the state-of-the-science on health co-benefits of climate change mitigation and realising the societal effect of evidence documenting co-benefits. We apply this framework to the EU context. Our framework spans multiple economic sectors-including land use, land-use change, and forestry and health systems-and provides details on the different types of mitigation actions, levers of change, and societal actors with the agency to implement specific mitigation actions. This framework aims to inform future research on the magnitude of health co-benefits of climate change mitigation, and provide strategies to communicate health co-benefits to support increases in mitigation ambition and societal acceptance of mitigation actions.}, }
@article {pmid40381627, year = {2025}, author = {Salas, RN}, title = {Climate change is redefining health-care delivery and preparedness.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e350-e351}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00111-1}, pmid = {40381627}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid40380845, year = {2025}, author = {Shan, YR and Tian, JH and Fan, XW and Liu, L}, title = {Spatial distribution of soil organic carbon components in mainland of China and their response to climate change.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {847-858}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202503.019}, pmid = {40380845}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Soil/chemistry ; *Carbon/analysis ; *Ecosystem ; *Organic Chemicals/analysis ; }, abstract = {Preserving and increasing soil organic carbon pool is an effective natural way to mitigate climate change. However, the sensitivity of soil organic carbon to climate change in different ecosystems in mainland of China is still unclear. To investigate the response of soil organic carbon to climate change, it is important to classify it into particulate (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) components. In this study, we assessed the spatial distributions of POC and MAOC in mainland of China and simulated their responses to future climate change using machine learning methods. The results showed that: 1) the stocks of soil organic carbon, POC, and MAOC in the top 20 cm soils of mainland China were 45.3, 20.7, and 24.6 Pg, respectively. 2) Soil organic carbon components were positively correlated with altitude and negatively correlated with air temperature. 3) Under the SSP585 scenario, the stocks of POC and MAOC in China would decrease by 4.80 and 2.13 Pg, from 2020 to 2100, respectively. The contents of soil organic carbon components were higher in Northeast China and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, but lower in the Inner Mongolia Plateau, Sichuan Basin, North China, and Northwest China Plain. The sensitivity of POC to climate change was higher than MAOC. Climate warming would cause the greatest loss of soil organic carbon in the meadow ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid40379981, year = {2025}, author = {Blount, ZD}, title = {Adaptability to climate change is difficult to predict.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40379981}, issn = {2397-334X}, }
@article {pmid40379681, year = {2025}, author = {Dadaei, MM and Hajikarimi, P and Nejad, FM}, title = {Sustainable prospective proposals for utilizing modifiers in bitumen industry to address global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {17042}, pmid = {40379681}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The rapid rise in greenhouse emissions has intensified climate change, highlighting the urgent need to assess its impact on critical infrastructure. Asphalt pavements, are particularly vulnerable to the stresses caused by climate change including rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns. The paper examines the impact of global warming on asphalt pavements using the Prophet model under three scenarios, focusing especially on variations in the performance grade of bitumen obtained from 34 synoptic stations of Iran. This study outlines types and precise of additives needed to meet evolving bitumen requirements through 2060. To promote sustainability in Iran's bitumen industry, this study includes a detailed economic and environmental analysis of additive production, transportation, and blending with existing bitumen sources. Findings suggest in 2060, Iran's bitumen demands can be met by producing PG 82 -16 and PG 76 -28 grades. The results showed that using styrene-butadiene-styrene (SBS) instead of crumb rubber (CR) led to a 46% increase in carbon dioxide emissions and a 1700% increase in costs. In contrast, replacing polyphosphoric acid (PPA) with crumb rubber reduced costs by 56%, while causing a 13% increase in carbon dioxide emissions. This study provides an innovative hybrid framework for temperature prediction under different scenarios using a machine learning model, forecasting bitumen performance grading, and evaluating the environmental impacts of various additives to enhance the performance of existing bitumens.}, }
@article {pmid40378470, year = {2025}, author = {Bergion, V and Sokolova, E and Samuelsson, A and Östberg, E and Bondelind, M}, title = {Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development on waterborne pathogen transport.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {283}, number = {}, pages = {123802}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2025.123802}, pmid = {40378470}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {Protection of our water resources is essential to provide future generations with safe drinking water, recreational opportunities, and reliable ecosystem services. Climate and land use changes exert pressure on the quality of our water resources. Additionally, societal development may generate both positive and negative impacts on future water quality. Thus, decisions made today will impact the water quality of tomorrow. In this paper, we address the issue of future microbial water quality by combining Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socio-economic Pathways with projections of societal development, either downscaled to a local level or assessed by local organisations. We use Lake Vomb in Sweden (providing approximately 330 000 persons with drinking water) to illustrate our novel approach of assessing the impact of climate change and societal development on future microbial water quality. The approach includes norovirus, Escherichia coli (as an indicator organism), and Cryptosporidium. Further, we combine hydrological and hydrodynamic fate and transport modelling to simulate future water quality in the tributaries and at the drinking water intake. Future simulations are compared to a baseline scenario representing the current situation. Results show that climate change will reduce future water quality. However, we can also see that societal development significantly impacts microbial water quality, potentially counteracting the increases in microbial concentrations induced by climate change. Therefore, drinking water supply management must adapt to both future climate and societal development.}, }
@article {pmid40376691, year = {2025}, author = {Shi, X and Wang, L and Dai, Z and Xu, D and Ban, J and Pan, L and Tang, X}, title = {Policy Interpretation of the China National Climate Change Health Adaptation Action Plan (2024-2030).}, journal = {China CDC weekly}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {385-388}, pmid = {40376691}, issn = {2096-7071}, abstract = {To better protect public health under climate change, in September 2024, the National Disease Control and Prevention Administration of the People's Republic of China, in collaboration with 12 other relevant departments, jointly released the China National Climate Change Health Adaptation Action Plan (2024-2030) (hereinafter referred to as the Action Plan), and innovatively proposed ten strategic prior actions. This study provides a systematic interpretation on the Action Plan, introducing its background, methodology and evidence used in production process, main concepts and content, the road map of implementation, as well as several possible challenges and solutions, which helps to give an overall understanding of the Action Plan.}, }
@article {pmid40376687, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, X and Tong, S and Wang, Y and Ma, L and Shi, X}, title = {Climate Change, Cryosphere Retreat, and Human Health.}, journal = {China CDC weekly}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {379-384}, pmid = {40376687}, issn = {2096-7071}, abstract = {The cryosphere, encompassing glaciers, ice sheets, permafrost, and snow, plays a critical role in regulating climate and sustaining human wellbeing. However, climate change is driving widespread cryosphere degradation, intensifying geophysical and climate-related hazards that pose escalating risks to the public health and safety. The resulting decline in both the quantity and quality of cryosphere services also has severe consequences, particularly for populations in polar regions, high-altitude mountains, and their downstream areas. Furthermore, teleconnected climate systems can even extend cryosphere change impacts beyond these regions. It has been seen that increasing cryosphere-related hazards, such as glacial lake outburst floods and extreme winter events, heighten public health risks. Disrupted meltwater supply and ecosystem shifts inflict water and food insecurity in arid and semiarid regions, exacerbating malnutrition and disease burdens. Additionally, thawing permafrost may release ancient pathogens and toxic substances, increasing the risks of infectious disease outbreaks and severe environmental contamination. Addressing these cascading risks requires urgent interdisciplinary research, public awareness, and investment in adaptive strategies to strengthen societal resilience amid a rapidly changing cryosphere and safeguard public well-being.}, }
@article {pmid40376265, year = {2025}, author = {Lu, Y and Dong, H and Fan, S and Yuan, L and Wang, Y and Zhao, Z and Lai, Y and Zhu, S and Huang, J and Yue, C and Ma, Y and Zhang, N}, title = {Local Adaptation and Climate Change Vulnerability of the Relict Tree Species Taiwania cryptomerioides Provide Insights Into Its Conservation and Restoration.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {18}, number = {5}, pages = {e70113}, pmid = {40376265}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Rapid climate change is affecting biodiversity and threatening locally adapted species. Relict species are often confined to relatively narrow, discontinuous geographic ranges and provide excellent opportunities to study local adaptation and extinction. Understanding the adaptive genetic variation and genetic vulnerability of relict species under climate change is essential for their conservation and management efforts. Here, we applied a landscape genomics approach to investigate the population genetic structure and predict adaptive capacity to climatic change for Taiwania cryptomerioides Hayata, a vulnerable Tertiary relict tree species in China. We used restriction site-associated DNA sequencing on 122 individuals across 10 sampling sites. We found three genetic groups across the Chinese range of T. cryptomerioides: the southwest, central-eastern, and Taiwanese groups. We detected significant signals of isolation by environment and isolation by distance, with environment playing a more important role than geography in shaping spatial genetic variation in T. cryptomerioides. Moreover, some outliers were related to defense and stress responses, which could reflect the genomic basis of adaptation. Gradient forest (GF) analysis revealed that precipitation-related variables were important in driving adaptive variation in T. cryptomerioides. Ecological niche modeling and GF analysis revealed that the central-eastern populations were more vulnerable to future climate change than other populations, with range contractions and high genetic offsets, suggesting these populations may be at higher risk of decline or local extinction. These findings deepen our understanding of local adaptation and vulnerability to climate change in relict tree species and will guide conservation and restoration programs for T. cryptomerioides in the future.}, }
@article {pmid40375521, year = {2025}, author = {Zhao, YQ and Zhao, PY and Xu, ZH and Li, ZG}, title = {Contribution of climate change and human activity to vegetation recovery in Shanxi Province from 2002 to 2022.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {36}, number = {1}, pages = {219-226}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202501.026}, pmid = {40375521}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; China ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Cities ; }, abstract = {Shanxi Province has fully implemented ecological protection and restoration initiatives since 2002. Assessing the spatiotemporal variations in vegetation across Shanxi is crucial for timely adjustments to ecological construction measures and ensuring their effectiveness. Based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), temperature, and precipitation data from 2002 to 2022, we employed the pixel dichotomy method, trend analysis, and multiple regression residual analysis to simulate the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover in all the 11 muni-cipal regions of Shanxi Province. By comparing potential NDVI with actual NDVI, we assessed the relative contributions of climate change and human activity to vegetation restoration. The results showed that vegetation coverage in different cities of Shanxi Province was mainly medium-high and high cover from 2002 to 2022, with Jincheng sho-wing the highest coverage and Shuozhou showing the lowest. Climate change and human activity together promoted rapid NDVI growth during the growing season in Shanxi Province, with a growth rate of 5.4×10[-3]·a[-1]. The areas with significant NDVI increase accounted for 72.1% of the total area. Within the municipalities, Lyuliang demonstrated the fastest NDVI growth rate (7.3×10[-3]·a[-1]). Human activity played a significant role in promoting vegetation restoration in Shanxi Province, while climate change had moderate contribution, with relative contribution rates of 76.3% and 23.7%, respectively. In Changzhi, Jincheng, and Yuncheng, the relative contribution rates of human activity exceeded 90%. Climate change notably facilitated vegetation restoration in Lyuliang. NDVI decreased signi-ficantly at the junction of Taiyuan, Lyuliang, and Jinzhong and in several city centers, slightly suppressed by climate change and moderately suppressed by human activity. The NDVI in Shanxi Province was significantly positive, and overall vegetation cover had reached a relatively high level. But, vegetation cover remained low in northern Shanxi. The relative contribution of human activity was highest in the southern region, while climate change had higher contribution in the central-western region.}, }
@article {pmid40375130, year = {2025}, author = {Mahmoud, AR and Farahat, EA and Hassan, LM and Halmy, MWA}, title = {Predicting the future impact of climate change on the distribution of species in Egypt's mediterranean ecosystems.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {644}, pmid = {40375130}, issn = {1471-2229}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Egypt ; *Ecosystem ; Mediterranean Region ; Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {As climate change accelerates, it may significantly alter species distributions and endanger many species. The use of species distribution modeling (SDM) has become increasingly vital for assessing the likely effects of climatic changes on biodiversity. This approach is especially relevant as our understanding of environmental shifts and their ecological implications deepens. SDMs are frequently employed to forecast future shifts in species' geographic ranges, estimate extinction risks, evaluate the effectiveness of existing conservation areas, and prioritize conservation efforts. The urgency of these assessments is highlighted by the fact that the Mediterranean area is heating up 20% quicker than the universal average. Given that species have varying ecological tolerances and attributes, their biological responses to environmental changes are likely to differ significantly. This study aimed to assess the potential future distribution of three native Mediterranean species- Thymelaea hirsuta (L.) Endl., Ononis vaginalis Vahl, and Limoniastrum monopetalum (L.) Boiss.-under two GCMs of HadGEM3-GC31-LL and IPSL-CM6A-LR for the periods of 2060s and 2080s and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), comparing the use of MaxEnt and ensemble modelling techniques in predicting the impact of future climatic changes on these species' distribution. The results indicated that there are high similarities and agreement between MaxEnt and the ensemble models' outputs. The two modelling techniques exhibited excellent fits and performance. The distribution range of T. hirsuta and O. vaginalis will expand and migrate to the northwest direction of the Mediterranean coast of Egypt, while L. monopetalum will contract. The insights gained from species distribution modeling could guide future conservation efforts and promote the sustainable use of the studied species in the arid coastal environments of the Mediterranean region. Clinical trial number Not applicable.}, }
@article {pmid40373435, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, D and Callaghan, DP and Baldock, TE}, title = {Quantifying the impact of future climate change on the risk of coral rubble instability across the Great Barrier Reef by 2100.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {386}, number = {}, pages = {125716}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125716}, pmid = {40373435}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Coral reef systems are facing unprecedented pressures due to climate change, and stable coral rubble substrates are crucial for facilitating large-scale coral regeneration. This study integrates the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate models, sea-level rise projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, and applies machine learning techniques to assess the risk of coral rubble instability in the Great Barrier Reef under future wave climate and depth change scenarios. Using the EC-Earth climate model under the SSP5-8.5 scenario-calibrated with data from 41 synoptic stations-we estimated various climate data for 2031-2100 and examined the impact of key factors such as wave climate and depth changes on the risk of coral instability. Coral rubble instability risk depends on future wave climate and depth changes from sea-level rise and deposition. Future changes in wave climate are expected to increase the risk of instability, while increased depth mitigates these destabilizing effects. Over the next 70 years, most areas of the Great Barrier Reef are projected to experience stable or decreasing risk of coral rubble instability. The proportion of no-risk areas is higher in the northern regions, whereas the far southern regions have fewer no-risk areas and more high-risk zones. High-risk and very high-risk areas are mainly concentrated along reef edges, reefs facing the Pacific Ocean, and shallow waters near the shoreline. The transition between high-risk and low-risk areas is gradual rather than abrupt. Annual projections align with long-term trends: coral rubble remains relatively stable in the northern and central regions, which is more conducive to future coral recovery. However, the persistent presence of high-risk and very high risk areas poses significant challenges to coral recovery in the far southern region. By providing insights into the spatial and temporal evolution of coral rubble instability risk, this study aims to support decision-makers, environmental scientists and researchers in formulating appropriate interventions to enhance the resilience of coral reefs under changing environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid40373396, year = {2025}, author = {Feng, X and Tian, Y and Guo, D and Xue, Q and Song, D and Huang, F and Feng, Y}, title = {Quantifying role of source variations on PM2.5-bound toxic components under climate change: Measurement at multiple sites during 2018-2022 in a Chinese megacity.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {494}, number = {}, pages = {138584}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2025.138584}, pmid = {40373396}, issn = {1873-3336}, abstract = {Understanding the response of PM2.5-bound toxic components to source variations under climate change is crucial for public health protection. However, the lack of long-term and multi-site observational data of toxic components limits such efforts. Here, we conducted a five-year PM2.5 measurement (2018-2022) at 10 sites across a Chinese megacity, analyzing 15 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), 6 organophosphate esters (OPEs), and 9 potentially toxic elements (PTEs). Using explainable machine learning, we found that source variations from particle matter mass reduction under climate change can impact PM2.5-bound toxic components. Meteorological factors like extreme heat days and max temperature impact most toxic components, while geographic, socioeconomic, and anthropogenic factors mainly affect PTEs, especially Cu. We also designed 10 extreme heat and source variation scenarios to predict the response of toxic components. When comparing scenario 2-1 (source variation without temperature change) with scenario 2-2 and 2-3 (the same source variation but higher temperatures), many PM2.5-bound organics and As show higher reduction rates under climate change, highlighting the need to focus more on gas-phase organics and products of atmospheric process. Benzo[b]fluoranthene (BbF) is most sensitive to traffic source reductions, and Cu, Mn, Zn and Fe are more sensitive to industrial source reductions.}, }
@article {pmid40373121, year = {2025}, author = {Running Horse Collin, Y and Bataille, CP and Hershauer, S and Hunska Tašunke Icu, M and Nujipi, A and Justin, W and Stelkia, J and Stelkia, JA and Topkok, SA and Leonard, BG and Soop, B and Gonzalez, M and Luta Wiƞ, A and Wiƞ, W and Omniya, T and Dull Knife, B and Means, B and Tecumseh Collin, C and Koskey, M and Kapp, JD and Landry, Z and Fraser, D and Southon, J and Lindroos, EE and Hassler, A and Chauvey, L and Tressières, G and Tonasso-Calvière, L and Schiavinato, S and Seguin-Orlando, A and Perdereau, A and Oliveira, PH and Aury, JM and Wincker, P and Kirillova, IV and Vasiliev, SK and Kusliy, MA and Graphodatsky, AS and Tishkin, AA and Barnes, I and Druckenmiller, P and Jass, CN and MacPhee, RDE and Barrón-Ortiz, CI and Groves, P and Mann, D and Froese, DG and Wooller, M and Miller, JH and Crowley, B and Zazula, G and Hall, E and Hewitson, S and Shapiro, B and Orlando, L}, title = {Sustainability insights from Late Pleistocene climate change and horse migration patterns.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {388}, number = {6748}, pages = {748-755}, doi = {10.1126/science.adr2355}, pmid = {40373121}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Alaska ; *Animal Migration ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fossils ; *Horses/genetics/physiology ; Ice Cover ; }, abstract = {Climate affects habitat, food availability, and the movement and sustainability of all life. In this work, we apply Indigenous and Western scientific methods, including genomics and isotope profiling, on fossils from across Beringia to explore the effect of climate change on horses. We find that Late Pleistocene horses from Alaska and northern Yukon are related to populations from Eurasia and crossed the Bering land bridge multiple times during the last glacial interval. We also find deeply divergent lineages north and south of the American ice sheets that genetically influenced populations across Beringia and into Eurasia. As climate warmed and horses entered the ice-free corridor connecting Beringia and midcontinental America, restricted mobility and food availability impeded population growth. Our combined Western and Indigenous framework offers critical guidance for wildlife conservation amid ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40371975, year = {2025}, author = {Topsakal, &#xd6; and Çevik, E}, title = {Climate Change Awareness: Does It Affect the Fertility Desire?.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13568}, pmid = {40371975}, issn = {1525-1446}, abstract = {AIM: The primary aim of the study was to explore the impact of women's climate change awareness on fertility desire, while the secondary aim was to explore the factors influencing women's fertility desire.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study was performed descriptive and correlational type with 440 women without children between March and October 2023. The women's characteristics form and Fertility Desire Scale and Climate Change Awareness Scale were used for data collection.<br><br>RESULTS: The mean age of the women was 26.2&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;4 years, with 55.2% aged 26 or younger; 54.3% held university degrees, and 93% had health insurance. Findings indicate a significant mean total score of 50.7&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;7.6 on the Fertility Desire Scale, influenced by education, health insurance, income level, marital duration, and type of marriage. Women with higher education levels and those in couple-initiated marriages reported lower fertility desire. The Climate Change Awareness Scale showed a mean score of 210.8&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;23.2, with higher awareness among those over 26, employed, and with higher education. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed significant predictors of fertility desire, including marital duration and income level. Notably, climate change awareness negatively correlated with fertility desire, explaining 3.1% of the variance.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the complex interplay between environmental concerns and reproductive intentions among women, indicating a need for further research in this area.}, }
@article {pmid40371526, year = {2025}, author = {Luo, CH and Wang, WY and Huang, JX and Wang, P and Ma, MH and Chen, JL and Zhao, CF}, title = {[Predicting the impact of climate change on the habitat distribution of Grus nigricollis based on the MaxEnt model].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {1251-1260}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202504.032}, pmid = {40371526}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Animals ; China ; *Models, Theoretical ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Under the context of global climate change, the shifts in suitable habitats of different species have become one of the major threats to biodiversity. We simulated the distribution habitats of Grus nigricollis under current climatic condition and predicted potential changes under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) with the MaxEnt model based on the distribution records of G. nigricollis and environmental variables. The results showed that: 1) Elevation, annual temperature range, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of potential breeding habitats for G. nigricollis, while the wintering habitats were significantly influenced by factors such as isothermality, elevation, and temperature annual range. 2) Under the current climate condition, the breeding habitats of G. nigricollis were mainly distributed in Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Tibet, Sichuan of China, as well as India, with a highly suitable breeding area of 27.07×10[4] km[2]. The wintering grounds were primarily located in Tibet, Sichuan, Yunnan of China, as well as Bhutan, Nepal, India, and Myanmar, with a highly suitable wintering area of 21.15×10[4] km[2]. 3) Under future climate scenarios, the overall potential suitable habitats for G. nigricollis remained stable, with the retention rate of stable areas exceeding 80%. Among these, the breeding habitats showed an increasing trend, while the wintering habitats exhibited a decreasing trend. 4) Under different climate scenarios, the centroid of breeding ground of G. nigricollis would gene-rally move southeastward, while the centroid of wintering ground mainly moved westward, potentially reducing migration distance. By predicting the changes in the potential suitable habitat for G. nigricollis on a large regional scale under future climate scenarios and revealing the impact of climate change on their distribution, this study could provide a scientific basis for the conservation of G. nigricollis and the formulation of relevant strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40370839, year = {2025}, author = {Nickoloff, AG and Olim, ST and Eby, M and Weaver, AJ}, title = {An assessment of ocean thermal energy conversion resources and climate change mitigation potential.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {178}, number = {5}, pages = {103}, pmid = {40370839}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a renewable energy system that harnesses the thermal gradient between surface and deep waters. Many multi-century simulations with a fully coupled climate-carbon cycle model are presented to explore the amount of extractable energy and the climate change mitigation potential from the widespread implementation of OTEC. The sustainability of OTEC power generation was assessed for present and possible future climate states. A warmer climate reduced the sustainable power potential of OTEC. OTEC could briefly produce over 35 TW of power and, depending on the climate state, maximum power production rates of 5 to 10 TW were found to be sustainable on multi-millennial timescales. Over 500 years of simulation, with a high emission scenario (equivalent to RCP8.5), the power from OTEC deployments, with peak power generation ranging from 3 to 15 TW at the year 2100, resulted in cumulative emission reductions equivalent to 36% to 111% of historical carbon emissions from 1750 to 2023 relative to the scenario without OTEC. Such significant emissions reductions coupled with sustained OTEC-induced mixing led to globally averaged atmosphere temperature decreases of up to 2.5 ºC by the year 2100 and up to 4 ºC by the year 2500 compared to a scenario without OTEC. While caution is required, and the engineering challenges would be large, early indications suggest that the large-scale implementation of OTEC could make a substantial contribution to climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid40370417, year = {2025}, author = {Abebaw, SE}, title = {A Global Review of the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Farmers' Adaptation Strategies.}, journal = {Food science &amp; nutrition}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {e70260}, pmid = {40370417}, issn = {2048-7177}, abstract = {Climate change and variability-marked by rising temperatures, altered precipitation, and increased extreme weather-have significant impacts on agriculture, especially in Ethiopia, where farming is the primary livelihood source. In Sub-Saharan Africa, staple crop yields are projected to decline by 10%-20% by 2050 under current climate trends, threatening food security and rural economies. In Ethiopia, maize yields may decrease by around 15% by 2050 due to temperature increases and erratic rainfall. These challenges are not unique to Ethiopia; other climate-sensitive regions like South Asia and Latin America face similar risks. For instance, rice and wheat production in South Asia could decline by 10%-15% by mid-century due to heat stress and changing monsoon patterns, affecting millions of smallholder farmers. This review systematically examined literature from 2000 to 2024, focusing on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in Ethiopia and comparable regions. The increasing frequency of droughts and heatwaves in East Africa has worsened crop failures, with wheat yields declining by up to 25% in certain areas over recent decades. Climate variability-characterized by rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall-disrupts growing seasons and reduces yields, exacerbating food insecurity. In Ethiopia, climate-induced reductions in crop output have led to an estimated 5%-10% decline in annual agricultural GDP. The heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture, combined with limited adaptive capacity and socio-economic vulnerability, intensifies these impacts, resulting in food shortages and economic strain. Beyond Africa, regions dependent on monsoon systems, particularly in South Asia, are also experiencing declining crop productivity. Projected climate scenarios suggest that by 2080, crop production in drought-prone areas across Africa and South Asia could decrease by up to 25% due to rising temperatures and altered rainfall. These projections highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient agricultural practices and effective adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40370348, year = {2025}, author = {Russo, D and Mäenurm, A and Cistrone, L and Martinoli, A and Foiani, G and Giongo, V and Leopardi, S}, title = {Climate Change-Driven Heatwaves Pose Lethal Risks to Newborn Forest Bats.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e71350}, pmid = {40370348}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to biodiversity, with extreme weather events such as heatwaves exacerbating the risks to animal populations. Temperature extremes can cause high physiological stress in animals, particularly in species or life stages with limited thermoregulatory abilities. While available evidence pertains to flying foxes and bats using bat boxes or dwelling in urban environments, heatwave-induced mortality in forest-dwelling species in temperate forests has not been reported. We present the first evidence of heatwave-related mortality in temperate forest bats, specifically in common noctules Nyctalus noctula, observed in northeast Italy during the summers of 2023 and 2024. Our fieldwork, conducted in a forest fragment in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia Region (Northeastern Italy), identified 17 dead juvenile bats found at the base of roost trees during periods of extreme heat (Tmax ≥ 30°C). Laboratory necropsies revealed that the cause of death was consistent with heat-related stress, as no viral infections were detected, and recent feeding evidence was present in a few individuals. Dead bats are difficult to find in forests, especially when mortality occurs in unsurveyed areas, scavengers remove carcasses, or deaths go unnoticed within roost cavities. Consequently, our observations likely represent only a limited fraction of actual mortality. The phenomenon may be quantitatively significant and widespread. The findings highlight the vulnerability of bat populations to heatwaves, particularly in fragmented forest habitats where roosting opportunities are limited. Our results allow us to hypothesise that forest fragmentation increases exposure to heat stress, particularly along forest edges. In the context of climate change, roosts deemed suitable may act as ecological traps, making this a hypothesis worth testing.}, }
@article {pmid40370171, year = {2025}, author = {Li, J and Liu, CF}, title = {Spatial and temporal variations in ecosystem health and coping strategy in the Hexi Corridor under climate change.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {537-546}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202502.021}, pmid = {40370171}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; China ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Coping Skills ; }, abstract = {The health status of ecosystems is the foundation for global climate change adaptation decision-making and a fundamental prerequisite for ensuring regional ecosystem stability. We constructed an ecosystem health assessment indicator system based on a contribution, vigor, organization and resilience model from the perspectives of system integrity and contributive capacity. With this system, we analyzed the spatial-temporal variation of ecosystem health in Hexi Corridor and its relationship with climate change from 2000 to 2020 by utilizing the bivariate Moran's index. Results showed that the ecosystem health index in the Hexi Corridor improved by 2.5% during 2000-2020. The central oasis area and the southeastern mountainous area showed significant improvement in ecological health, while the northern desert area and some localized regions experienced degradation. During the study period, the overall health status of the Hexi Corridor's ecosystem remained at a moderate level, with consistent trend across various dimensions that initially declined before subsequently rising. There was a significant spatial positive correlation between climate change and ecosystem health. In the arid and low-precipitation condition of the Hexi Corridor, increased average annual precipitation and elevated average annual temperature contributed positively to ecosystem health, which was the key determinants of regional ecosystem health. Finally, we proposed corresponding strategies for enhancing ecosystem health levels in the southern Qilian Mountain area, the central oasis areas, and the nor-thern desert areas.}, }
@article {pmid40369173, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, W and Mensah, IA and Atingabili, S and Omari-Sasu, AY}, title = {Climate change as a game changer: Rethinking Africa's food security- health outcome nexus through a multi-sectoral lens.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {16824}, pmid = {40369173}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {72274116//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; STF20012//STU Scientific Research Initiation Grant/ ; 07420005 and 07421005//Open Fund of Key Research Base of Philosophy and Social Science of Higher Education in Guangdong Province-Local Government Development Research Institute of Shantou University/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Security ; Humans ; Africa ; Sustainable Development ; *Food Supply ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; }, abstract = {In Africa, the intricate relationship between food security and health outcomes is increasingly challenged by the unpredictable forces of climate change. With this in mind, we utilized panel data spanning from 2010-2022 for 46 African nations, sub-grouped into regional panels to analyze the moderating role of climate change on food security- health outcome nexus, contributing to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2 (Zero Hunger), 3 (Good Health and Well-Being), and 13 (Climate Action). Considering issues of residual cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity which are potential in panel data setting, the study utilized the Augmented Mean Group and the Common Correlated Mean Group techniques as the main methods in estimating the relationships amid the employed variables. Major outcomes from the study's analysis revealed that, across all panels of African states, there is no doubt that climate change has a substantial, direct detrimental impact on health outcomes. Also, while the moderating effect of climate change is clearly negative in the case of Northern and Central regional panels, it is significantly positive in the aggregated, Eastern, Western, and Southern African regions with regard to the relationship between food security and health outcomes. In light of these findings, addressing the relationship between food security and health in Africa while taking the moderating impacts of climate change into account requires a region-specific approach.}, }
@article {pmid40367092, year = {2025}, author = {Lankamo, AA and R, D and Bati, BE and Dira, SJ}, title = {Confronting the uncertainty: Vulnerability to climate change among smallholder farmers in the Sidaama region, Ethiopia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {e0323469}, pmid = {40367092}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ethiopia ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Uncertainty ; Agriculture ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climate change varies due to socio-economic and biophysical factors, requiring a context-specific assessment. This study examines livelihood vulnerability in the face of climate change in the Sidaama Region, Ethiopia. A mixed-methods approach with a descriptive and explanatory sequential design was employed. Data from 391 systematically sampled households were analyzed using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework (LVI_IPCC), alongside Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests. Results of LVI analysis indicate that the Lowland agroecological zone (AEZ) is the most vulnerable (0.466), followed by the Highland (0.412), while the Midland is least vulnerable (0.376). The Highland AEZ showed greater sensitivity to climate change, whereas the Lowland had the weakest adaptive capacity. The Kruskal-Wallis H test confirmed significant differences in vulnerability across AEZs (H = 49.083, p < 0.001), with Dunn's test revealing that the Lowland AEZ is significantly more vulnerable than both the Highland and Midland. LVI_IPCC results similarly ranked the Lowland as the most vulnerable (-0.0041), followed by the Midland (-0.072), with the Highland being the least vulnerable (-0.096). Boxplot analysis further confirmed that the lowland had the highest median LVI_IPCC, indicating greater livelihood vulnerability, while the Highland and Midland had lower median values. To reduce vulnerability, targeted interventions such as climate-smart agriculture, diversified income sources, improved microfinance access, and tailored climate adaptation strategies are needed. Local, regional, and national governments should prioritize disaster prevention and mitigation in the Lowland while leveraging the Midland's higher adaptability for piloting innovative adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40366178, year = {2025}, author = {Zagumyonnaya, ON and Zagumyonnyi, DG and Gerasimova, EA and Tikhonenkov, DV}, title = {A protozoan perspective on climate change and biosafety threats: differences in testate amoebae in lakes in forest-swamp and forest-steppe zones in Western Siberia.}, journal = {Applied and environmental microbiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e0033025}, doi = {10.1128/aem.00330-25}, pmid = {40366178}, issn = {1098-5336}, abstract = {The problem of increasing salinity and mineralization in natural and artificial freshwater bodies with climate warming is very relevant nowadays, as it leads to changes in the species composition of planktonic organisms. Testate amoebae are one of the responsive bioindicators that are sensitive to even minor changes in environmental conditions. In this study, a comparative analysis of the species diversity of planktonic testate amoebae was carried out in a number of lakes in the forest-steppe and forest-swamp natural zones of Western Siberia using microscopy and metabarcoding. One new species, Pseudodifflugia siemensmai sp. nov., was described. The detection frequency and the number of reads of amplicon sequence variants of potentially pathogenic testate amoebae belonging to the genera Rhogostoma and Fisculla were higher in forest-steppe lakes. Universal eukaryotic primers for the 18S rRNA gene are well suited for identifying testate amoebae from the supergroup Cercozoa but are practically not applicable for identifying Amoebozoa testaceans. The plankton of the lakes with the highest mineralization and salinity was characterized by the most specific species composition. These results should be taken into account when predicting changes in aquatic communities with further climate warming, which may also be associated with an increase in the occurrence of pathogenic testaceans that pose biosafety threats.IMPORTANCEMicroscopic and metabarcoding analyses reveal important differences in testate amoebae communities in lakes in two natural and climatic zones of Western Siberia that should be taken into account when predicting changes in aquatic communities with further climate warming, which may also be associated with an increase in the occurrence of pathogenic testaceans that pose biosafety threats.}, }
@article {pmid40365770, year = {2025}, author = {Erkan, FM and Kavak Budak, F}, title = {The relationship between future anxiety and awareness of global climate change in nursing students.}, journal = {The International journal of social psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {207640251339892}, doi = {10.1177/00207640251339892}, pmid = {40365770}, issn = {1741-2854}, abstract = {AIM: The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between nursing students' future anxiety and awareness of global climate change.<br><br>METHOD: The population of this correlational descriptive study consisted of nursing students studying at a nursing faculty. Three hundred and thirty nursing students were included in the study. The researcher collected data through google forms using a Descriptive Characteristics Form, the Awareness Scale of University Students About Global Climate Change (ASUSGCC) and the Future Anxiety Scale in University Students (FASUS) between March and May 2024.<br><br>RESULTS: The ASUSGCC total mean score of the nursing students was 3.43&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;0.88. Their FASUS total mean score was 61.39&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;12.98. There was a statistically significant positive, weak correlation between their ASUSGCC and FASUS total mean scores (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;.05).<br><br>CONCLUSION: It was found that the nursing students had a moderate level of awareness about global climate change. It can be asserted that the participants had a moderate level of future anxiety based on their FASUS total mean score. In the study, as their level of awareness about climate change elevated, did so their level of future anxiety.}, }
@article {pmid40365474, year = {2025}, author = {Han, N and Wang, J and Feng, T and Zhao, J and Zhang, J and Hou, X and Chang, G}, title = {Rodent Seed Dispersal Syndromes Follow a Downslope Trajectory, Counteracting the Climate Change-Mediated Tree Line Elevational Shift Upwards.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e71388}, pmid = {40365474}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Forest rodents are important mediators of plant seed dispersal and their seed caching tactics are influenced by a variety of environmental factors; however, the role of terrain slope remains uninvestigated. We examined how the dispersal of Castanea mollissima seeds by an assemblage of scatter-hoarding rodents in the Qinling Mountains, China, was affected by slope direction and gradient in relation to seed fate. In this study, the topographic factor, which has been frequently overlooked in previous ecological studies, was investigated. It was revealed that the sloping terrain could affect the dispersal behavior of rodents toward plant seeds and ultimately influence the direction of plant dispersal. This finding brings new insights to ecological research. Overall, rodents were 1.55 more likely to transport seed downhill than uphill, and downhill mean translocation distance was 1.41 times greater than uphill, suggesting an overarching tendency for energy conservation. When comparing steep (> 35°) with shallow (< 35°) slopes, this gradient effect was strongest on gentle slopes, with other factors likely exerting a greater influence on steeper terrain. We discuss these findings both from the perspective of rodent optimal foraging in 'landscapes of fear' and heterogeneous 'energy landscapes', as well as in the context of the counteractive pressure for trees to achieve an uphill elevational shift in response to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid40361693, year = {2025}, author = {Åhlberg, MK}, title = {Wild Edible Plants: Ensuring Sustainable Food Security in an Era of Climate Change.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {40361693}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {Currently, there are more significant threats to food security compared to earlier decades because of the accelerating rate of climate change [...].}, }
@article {pmid40361108, year = {2025}, author = {Khanal, S and Baral, SC and Boeckmann, M}, title = {Exploring barriers and facilitators to integrating health equity into health and climate change policies in Nepal - a qualitative study among federal level stakeholders.}, journal = {BMC health services research}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {687}, pmid = {40361108}, issn = {1472-6963}, mesh = {Nepal ; *Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; Humans ; Qualitative Research ; *Health Policy ; *Policy Making ; Interviews as Topic ; Stakeholder Participation ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Health is foundational for climate action, and integrating climate and health policies to achieve health equity is widely recognized. While there is a growing global momentum for collaborative health and climate initiatives, more effort is needed to incorporate health equity into national climate policies. Achieving this necessitates identifying both barriers and facilitators of integrated policymaking. This study examines the barriers and facilitators to integrating health equity into climate change-related policies at Nepal's federal level.<br><br>METHODS: We interviewed 14 key stakeholders from three major federal ministries, a high-level government entity, and a government partner institution in Nepal, all with diverse roles and responsibilities. To facilitate discussions, we developed an interview guide informed by two policy analysis frameworks: Health Equity Policy Process Analysis Framework and Schlossberg's Framework of Environmental Justice. Using both inductive and deductive approaches, we identified five key facilitators and four major barriers to integrating health equity in climate change-related policies in Nepal. We present these barriers in relation to WHO's climate-resilient health systems framework.<br><br>RESULTS: A wide array of facilitators was identified, broadly categorized as a) acknowledgement of the need to integrate health equity in climate change policies, b) political leadership, c) global influences, d) established mechanisms and structures in place for collaboration and e) the federal structure. Barriers identified were largely systemic and encompassed a) knowledge gaps, b) ownership and accountability, c) resource constraints: human resources and budget and d) data limitations. Among these, the issue of ownership and accountability emerged as an overarching theme, cutting across all barriers. Similarly, financing and knowledge gaps were identified as significant obstacles to progress.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The findings underscore the need for a more structured approach, with clearly delineated responsibilities to ensure all relevant sectors contribute to the goal of health equity in climate action. Developing well-defined guidelines outlining the roles and responsibilities of different sectors involved in climate action is crucial for fostering ownership and ensuring that health equity is effectively integrated into climate change policies, as well as aiding in resource allocation. We recommend future research to explore the potential role of policy champions within ministries in advocating for and advancing health equity within climate change-related policies.}, }
@article {pmid40360892, year = {2025}, author = {Zhong, Y}, title = {Empower communities to fight climate change at grassroots level.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {641}, number = {8063}, pages = {594}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-025-01509-x}, pmid = {40360892}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid40360889, year = {2025}, author = {Ryan, CM and Staver, AC}, title = {'Loss and damage fund' for climate change needs broader remit.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {641}, number = {8063}, pages = {594}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-025-01510-4}, pmid = {40360889}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid40360667, year = {2025}, author = {Gruss, I and Czarniecka-Wiera, M and Świerszcz, S and Szymura, M and Szymura, T and Raduła, MW}, title = {Responses of grassland soil mesofauna to induced climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {16532}, pmid = {40360667}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Grassland ; *Soil/chemistry ; Animals ; Poland ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Arthropods/physiology ; Mites/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change can significantly affect the below and above-ground ecosystems. This study aimed to test the effects of induced climate change on the composition of soil mesofauna and vascular plant species in semi-natural grasslands. Open-top chambers (OTCs) were used to manipulate climatic conditions. The research was carried out over three years in two semi-natural grasslands in south-west Poland (Central Europe). Changes in soil mesofauna (Collembola and Acari) and vegetation characteristics under OTC treatment were evaluated and compared to untreated control sites. Treatment with OTC significantly increased the abundance of Oribatida mites (up to 42%) but decreased the abundance of Gamasida (by 21%), indicating contrasting responses of the Acari subgroups to warming. Collembola diversity was significantly reduced under OTC conditions, as reflected in the lower Margalef, Simpson, and Shannon-Wiener indices. Furthermore, the abundance of epigeic Collembola increased under OTC. Redundancy analysis (RDA) revealed that plant traits explained 37.91% of the variation in mesofauna structure. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) further supported these findings, showing that climate exerted a strong negative effect on soil quality, which in turn had a pronounced positive influence on plant quality (total effect = 0.678). Plant quality significantly enhanced soil fauna abundance (total effect = 0.264), while the overall impact of climate on soil fauna was negative (- 0.231), primarily via indirect pathways. These findings suggest that climate change in grassland ecosystems can disrupt the ecological balance of soil fauna by modifying their responses to environmental variables. The SEM results emphasise the cascading nature of these effects, from climate to soil, vegetation, and ultimately soil fauna, highlighting the importance of indirect environmental pressures. Conserving plant diversity remains essential to buffer against climate-driven disruptions and maintain ecosystem stability.}, }
@article {pmid40359743, year = {2025}, author = {Berntsson, SG and Reis, J and Zjukovskaja, C and Tulek, Z and Kristoffersson, A and Landtblom, AM}, title = {Climate change impacts the symptomology and healthcare of multiple sclerosis patients through fatigue and heat sensitivity - A systematic review.}, journal = {Journal of the neurological sciences}, volume = {474}, number = {}, pages = {123526}, doi = {10.1016/j.jns.2025.123526}, pmid = {40359743}, issn = {1878-5883}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change, in terms of global warming and heat waves, might negatively impact people with neurological diseases. Patients with Multiple Sclerosis (MS), which is characterized by heat sensitivity, may therefore have an increased vulnerability. Subsequently, we aimed to specifically investigate the state of knowledge on climate change and MS.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a literature search in the Pub Med database during 2022-2024 using the search terms "multiple sclerosis" AND "climate ", "climate change", "global warming", "heat waves", and "seasonal variations". A total of 773 scientifical papers were retrieved and scrutinized according to the inclusion/exclusion criteria. Finally, 24 publications were manually selected based on their relevance to the intended topic, covering climate change related heat sensitivity in MS patients, associated healthcare burden, and treatment strategies.<br><br>RESULTS: Only few publications focused on climate change and its effect on MS. The search yielded 24 articles on effects of climate/environmental heat and seasonal variations on MS. There was both evidence of worsened clinical symptoms as well as negative studies. However, the majority of selected papers, 16/24 (67&#xa0;%) revealed an impact on MS symptoms/hospitalization from environmental heat.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: So far there has been limited interest in the vulnerability of MS patients to climate change. The future perspective of increased temperature and heat waves should be highlighted so that authorities prepare health systems to apply to this new, but logical and intuitive, scientific knowledge. As heat sensitivity also seems to affect neurological disorders beyond MS, further research is needed to develop general care strategies in the future.}, }
@article {pmid40359307, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, X and Hao, M and Zhou, Y and Zhang, Y and Xu, Z and Liu, X and Gao, Y and Li, R and Zhang, H and Li, X and Liu, X and Yao, Y}, title = {Projections of heat-related mortality in Chinese cities: The roles of climate change, urbanization, socioeconomic adaptation, and landscape level strategies.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1289/EHP15010}, pmid = {40359307}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Physiological heat strain induced by extreme temperature in cities has led to significant heat-related deaths. Although socioeconomic adaptation is suggested to mitigate this issue, its effectiveness is limited. Conversely, there is a lack of comprehensive evaluation on the effectiveness of landscape level strategies for mitigating heat-related deaths.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We developed a comprehensive modeling framework to estimate the impacts of environmental stresses and mitigating strategies on heat-related deaths in China's cities from 2016 to 2055.<br><br>METHODS: The framework assesses future heat-related deaths through five experiments considering the influences of climate change, urbanization, socioeconomic adaptation, and landscape level strategies. We used extrapolated region-specific exposure-response functions (ERF) and recent advancement of geo-statistics for public health to generate urban patch level ERF curves. We used these curves, temperature and population data to generate future heat-related deaths with 1 km resolution and conducted 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations for uncertainty analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Our analyses estimated that heat-related mortality will increase from 136.5&#xb1;16.5 deaths per million in 2016 to 175.7&#xb1;27.5 deaths per million in 2055 under SSP2-RCP4.5 (shared socioeconomic pathways-representative concentration pathways) scenario and from 140.0&#xb1;21.4 deaths per million to 230.2&#xb1;38.7 deaths per million under SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario, despite socioeconomic adaptation and landscape level strategies. Socioeconomic adaptation (reducing deaths by 18.4-64.1 per million) and landscape level strategies (reducing deaths by 45.6-51.3 per million) significantly mitigate heat-related deaths with varying effectiveness across different income levels. Specifically, in high-income cities with dense populations, landscape level strategies are 2.2-4.3 times more effective than socioeconomic adaptation. Within these cities, implementing the same landscape level strategies in the high-density urban centers lead to an additional reduction up to 4.9-6.8 death&#x2022;km[-2] compared to surrounding areas.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Our framework helps to systematically understand the effectiveness of landscape level strategies in reducing heat-related mortality. Future sustainable city management should prioritize landscape level strategies along with socioeconomic adaptation to support healthy and comfortable communities. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP15010.}, }
@article {pmid40359039, year = {2025}, author = {Sinclair, AH and Cosme, D and Lydic, K and Reinero, DA and Carreras-Tartak, J and Mann, ME and Falk, EB}, title = {Behavioral interventions motivate action to address climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {20}, pages = {e2426768122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2426768122}, pmid = {40359039}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {140D0423C0048//DOD | Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Motivation ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; }, abstract = {Mitigating climate change requires urgent action at individual, collective, and institutional levels. However, individuals may fail to act because they perceive climate change as a threat that is distant or not personally relevant, or believe their actions are not impactful. To address these psychological barriers, we conducted a large-scale "intervention tournament." In a sample of 7,624 participants, we systematically tested 17 interventions that targeted psychological mechanisms described by three key themes: Relevance, Future Thinking, and Response Efficacy. Interventions that emphasized social relevance were the most effective for motivating people to share news articles and petitions about climate change. Interventions that targeted future thinking were the most effective for broadly motivating individual actions (e.g., driving less, eating vegetarian meals) and collective actions (e.g., donating, volunteering) to address climate change. Interventions that emphasized the environmental impact of these actions reliably increased the perceived impact of pro-environmental actions, but did not consistently motivate action. Notably, interventions that targeted two or more mechanisms-such as imagining a future scenario that involved oneself or close others-were most effective. Importantly, our leading interventions were substantially more effective than prevalent existing strategies (e.g., carbon footprint information). Our findings are relevant to theories of behavior change, motivation, and information sharing, with potential applications across domains. Insights from our tournament could be applied to develop scalable online interventions and mass communication campaigns to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40359014, year = {2025}, author = {Richards, CA and Brumley, C and Graves, JM and Parker, MM and Khot, LR and Postma, J}, title = {Mapping Research Priorities for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture: A One Health Perspective.}, journal = {Workplace health &amp; safety}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {21650799251334147}, doi = {10.1177/21650799251334147}, pmid = {40359014}, issn = {2165-0969}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The climate emergency poses significant threats to agricultural productivity, the health and economic prospects of agricultural workers, and animal welfare. This requires development and implementation of adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact in the long-term. The purpose of this study was to identify and map research priorities for climate change adaptation in agriculture, focusing on protecting the health of agricultural workers and livestock animals.<br><br>METHODS: Based on the One Health framework, we utilized a participatory, mixed-method approach called group concept mapping. In 2023, 20 faculty members from various disciplines at a land-grant university were recruited through email and purposive sampling, based on group concept mapping methodology. Fifteen faculty members brainstormed ways to reduce health risks for agricultural workers and livestock in the Pacific Northwest amid climate change. Forty ideas were sorted and rated for importance and feasibility by 11 and 10 faculty, respectively.<br><br>FINDINGS: Multidimensional scaling yielded five clusters: wildfire smoke impacts, basic science, forecasting extreme weather, tradeoffs, and occupational health and labor. Key research areas include studying wildfire smoke's effects on agricultural products, animals, and workers, and identifying adaptive strategies for climate change's impact on humans and livestock. Overall, 25% included all three pillars of the One Health framework.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Most research directions were focused on risk management, with limited emphasis on the One Health framework.<br><br>APPLICATION TO PRACTICE: Transdisciplinary collaboration is needed to apply a One Health approach in climate adaptation efforts for agriculture and can be enhanced through transdisciplinary education and training opportunities.}, }
@article {pmid40356815, year = {2025}, author = {Al Khatib, A and Alsaleh, B and Almari, M and Hassanein, S and Al Hakawati, N}, title = {Mitigating climate change impacts on health: a comparative analysis of strategies in Saudi Arabia and Lebanon.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1551559}, pmid = {40356815}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Saudi Arabia/epidemiology ; Lebanon/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Food Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Public Health ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Human activities are now adding rapidly more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere causing global warming which is one aspect of climate change, the greatest threat to public health. Therefore, this study aims to compare the health impacts of climate change on Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, and assessing their adaptation strategies in addressing climate change challenges.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: This study is a descriptive Comparative Analysis, this was performed by analyzing the available data on climate-related health outcomes: food insecurity, emergence of infectious disease and car accidents and by comparing trends and percentages between the two countries.<br><br>RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Saudi Arabia and Lebanon has markable high CO2 emission, which negatively affect the health of people such as Food insecurity (in KSA: The estimated loss over the periods in all the crops ranges from 7 to 25%, in Lebanon: There is a decreased the growth of coveted crops, and increased the growth of weeds and pests), Road traffic accidents (approximately 1.3 million people die as a result of road traffic accidents and 20-50 million people suffer from other injuries.), and Emergence of infectious diseases (in KSA: an increase in 1&#xb0;C of temperature caused a significant increase (15-25%) in malaria incidence, and increase in risk of food- borne diseases, in Lebanon: There is a vulnerability to the rise in food-borne and vector-borne diseases.). Forecasting the future for both countries reveal to a definite climate change occurring. Further actions could be implemented to overcome the negative health outcomes according to each country. Agriculture and Food Security, Use of renewable energy, and Awareness Campaigns on climate change and health are measures that could be implemented to face the outcomes of climate change. Interestingly, there are some organizations funding initiatives and activities in raising awareness of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Numerous sectors are impacted by climate change, which is a serious issue that requires immediate action. It has a substantial influence on many different sectors and leads to food instability, agricultural issues, an increase in infectious disease transmission, and a rise in traffic accidents. These elements require particular care, and appropriate action should be done to eliminate them.}, }
@article {pmid40355486, year = {2025}, author = {Kaiho, K}, title = {Mechanisms of global climate change during the five major mass extinctions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {16498}, pmid = {40355486}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {25247084//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/ ; }, abstract = {Since the emergence of diverse animal phyla around 500 million years ago, five major mass extinction events have occurred, each coinciding with abnormal climate changes. We analyzed sedimentary organic molecules from the first and least understood extinction event at the end of the Ordovician period. We divided all five major extinctions into two phases each, totaling ten events, and examined the relationship between climate shifts and the "coronene index"-an indicator of heating temperatures in sedimentary rocks caused by volcanic activity or meteorite impacts. As a result, we found that four of the five extinctions began with global cooling and ended with warming, while one started with an unknown anomaly and also ended with warming. During the initial extinction phases, two events showed low-temperature heating, two high-temperature, and one moderate-temperature. All subsequent warming phases showed moderate-temperature heating. These findings suggest that large-scale volcanic eruptions and meteorite impacts heated sulfides, sulfates, and hydrocarbons at varying temperatures, releasing SO2 or soot into the stratosphere, blocking sunlight, and triggering global cooling and extinction. This was followed by moderate heating of hydrocarbons and carbonates, increasing CO2 emissions and driving long-term global warming, leading to secondary extinction events.}, }
@article {pmid40355070, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, ST and Li, L and Yang, Q and Wang, W and Wang, LP and Zhang, SD and Zhang, GF}, title = {Biomineralization mechanisms in the estuarine oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis): Unveiling the adaptive potential of mollusks in response to rapid climate change.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {126411}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2025.126411}, pmid = {40355070}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Rapid climate change is often considered detrimental to biomineralization in mollusks; however, accumulating contradictory evidence necessitates reevaluation of the concept. Estuaries, characterized by fluctuating pH levels and limited calcifying substrate availability, are generally considered unfavorable for biomineralization. Understanding how biomineralization evolves in estuarine environments is essential for assessing adaptive potential and identifying mechanisms that could support molluscan adaptation to future environmental change. Phenotypic analyses, multi-omics approaches, and functional assays were employed within a common garden design to investigate the mechanisms underlying the estuarine oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis) adaptation to estuarine environments, using Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas), which inhabit non-estuarine areas, as a control. Compared with C. gigas, C. ariakensis exhibited superior biomineralization capacity, evidenced by heavier shells with increased density, enhanced resistance to dissolution, and greater toughness. Ion homeostasis and high expression of classical-pathway mantle secretomes were identified as compensatory mechanisms for the biomineralization adaptation of C. ariakensis. The novel C. ariakensis C-type lectin, a species-specific classical-pathway shell matrix secreted protein (SMSP), demonstrated a high capacity to accelerate the CaCO3 precipitation rate of calcite particles, thereby underscoring the essential roles of species-specific SMSPs in estuarine adaptations. This study provides novel insights into the adaptive potential of biomineralization in mollusks under rapid climate change. Analyzing biomineralization in estuarine organisms is critical for anticipating the emergent impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40354730, year = {2025}, author = {Llobregat, B and Cervini, C and González-Candelas, L and Verheecke-Vaessen, C and Ballester, AR and Medina, &#xc1;}, title = {Will climate change affect growth and ochratoxin A production of putative biocontrol knockout strains of Aspergillus carbonarius?.}, journal = {International journal of food microbiology}, volume = {439}, number = {}, pages = {111250}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2025.111250}, pmid = {40354730}, issn = {1879-3460}, abstract = {The research explored the effects of abiotic factors associated with climate change (CC) on the growth and metabolite production of wild-type Aspergillus carbonarius ITEM 5010 and three knockout mutants: one knockout in the first gene of the ochratoxin A (OTA) biosynthesis pathway (ΔotaA) and two in the veA and laeA genes (the latter knockout generated in this work) encoding VELVET complex proteins, which regulate metabolism. Variables examined were temperature (30 °C vs 37 °C), water activity (0.98 vs 0.90), and CO2 levels (400 ppm vs 1000 ppm). Growth, OTA production, and other metabolites were evaluated on grape-based medium. The results showed that abiotic factors significantly influenced fungal growth and mycotoxin production, with aw being the most critical parameter. At aw 0.90, no growth was observed. A temperature of 37 °C combined with 1000 ppm CO2 resulted in higher OTA production, indicating a greater health risk in predicted CC scenarios. Mutants of global regulatory factors showed altered metabolite production, with elevated OTA levels at 37 °C. The ΔotaA knockout mutant consistently showed no OTA production, suggesting its viability as a biocontrol agent under CC conditions. However, while OTA increased, other secondary metabolites, such as pyranonigrin A and kojic acid, decreased with rising temperatures in all strains. The research highlights the influence of abiotic factors related to CC on A. carbonarius growth and metabolite production, underlining the threat of increased mycotoxin production. This reinforces the need for resilient biocontrol strategies. The ΔotaA mutant has been identified as a potential biocontrol agent, demonstrating resistance to future environmental stresses associated with CC.}, }
@article {pmid40353834, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, L and Yang, C and Wang, P and Xie, G and Wang, W}, title = {Assessing the potential global distribution of Monochamus sutor (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under the influence of climate change and human activities based on Maximum Entropy model.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toaf093}, pmid = {40353834}, issn = {1938-291X}, support = {//Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province/ ; }, abstract = {Monochamus sutor, an important phytophagous pest, is a known vector insect of Bursaphelenchus mucronatus in addition to feeding directly on trees. Although B. mucronatus causes relatively minor damage in European and Asian forests, its threat to coniferous forests is similar to that of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. Given that B. xylophilus evolved into a destructive pathogen after its introduction into Asia, B. mucronatus may also pose a potential threat to North American coniferous forests. Therefore, we assessed the potential global distributions areas of M. sutor and their relative dynamics under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) in the current (i. considering only bioclimatic factors; ii. including anthropogenic factors) and in the future (2050s and 2070s) using an optimized Maximum Entropy ecological niche model. The mean area under the curve value of the optimized model was greater than 0.86 and the true skill statistic value was greater than 0.79. Potentially suitable habitat for M. sutor is driven by a combination of temperature (Bio1 and Bio2), precipitation (Bio14, Bio15, and Bio18), and human activities. In the current period, suitable areas are concentrated in Europe, East Asia, and North America, and are smaller in the presence of anthropogenic disturbance than in the presence of bioclimatic factors alone. At the same time, under future climate scenarios, the potential range of M. sutor will always expand more than contract, with a projected increase of 1,329.02 to 1,798.23 × 104 km2 compared to the current time period, especially spread toward Canada and the United States of America in North America. The present study provides important insights into the potential risks of M. sutor, which is important to help guide decision-making in pest control as well as forest conservation.}, }
@article {pmid40351867, year = {2025}, author = {Lorenzon, A and Granata, M and Verzelloni, P and Tommasi, L and Palandri, L and Malavolti, M and Bargellini, A and Righi, E and Vinceti, M and Paduano, S and Filippini, T}, title = {Effect of Climate Change on West Nile Virus Transmission in Italy: A Systematic Review.}, journal = {Public health reviews}, volume = {46}, number = {}, pages = {1607444}, pmid = {40351867}, issn = {0301-0422}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: West Nile Virus (WNV) infection prevalence is increasing in recent years in Europe, particularly in Italy. Such increase has been related to climate and environmental factors. Our review aims to assess the relation between climate change-related factors and the spread of WNV in Italy.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a literature search across four online databases until 22 January 2025, using as search terms WNV, its vectors, and climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: Out of 282 unique articles, we included 29 eligible papers published between 2011-2025, most of them assessing distribution of the main WNV vector (Culex pipiens) and epidemiology of the infection in relation to climate/environmental factors. We found a positive strong association of WNV transmission with temperature and agricultural land use. Associations with other environmental variables also emerged, but they were either weak or inconsistent.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Despite some inconsistencies in the results, likely due to heterogeneity in study methodologies and interactions of environmental variables, review findings indicate that some climate change-related factors favor WNV spread through its vectors in Italy, in line with exploratory observations obtained on the entire Europe.<br><br>https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/view/CRD42023430636, identifier CRD42023430636.}, }
@article {pmid40351577, year = {2025}, author = {Gezer, M and Yıldırım, Y and İlhan, M}, title = {Reliability generalization meta-analysis of the Climate Change Worry Scale.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1590126}, pmid = {40351577}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change worry is an increasingly critical issue in eco-psychology literature. A commonly used instrument for measuring this construct is the Climate Change Worry Scale (CCWS), developed by Stewart. This Likert-type scale assesses individuals' climate change worry through 10 items clustered under a single factor. It has been adapted for multiple cultures and utilized in numerous studies conducted across various countries. Nevertheless, no study has synthesized the reliability values obtained from individual studies for the scale. The purpose of the current meta-analysis was to perform a reliability generalization for the CCWS. To this end, an exhaustive literature search was conducted from July 14 to November 17, 2024, in the EBSCO, ERIC, Taylor &amp; Francis, PubMed, and Web of Science databases, as well as Google Scholar, using the keyword "Climate Change Worry Scale." After scrutinizing the identified studies for duplicates and applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, the research focused on the 40 Cronbach's alpha coefficients acquired from 37 papers. The results of the analysis, which involved running the random effects model and the Bonnet transformation, indicated that the pooled Cronbach's alpha was 0.932 (95% CI = 0.919-0.942). The results of the moderator analysis revealed that the sample descriptors and study characteristics included in the meta-analysis did not significantly affect the reliability estimates. Accordingly, the CCWS was found to be an instrument that produces highly reliable measurements regardless of factors such as region, language, participants' age, and the total number of items answered during administration. Finally, the reliability induction rate was determined to be 29.41%. However, the high heterogeneity observed among the reliability estimates of the primary studies exposed the limitations of generalizing the reliability of CCWS scores across different populations and research conditions. This situation also emphasized the importance of providing detailed information about the scale's sample demographics and administration conditions when reporting reliability.}, }
@article {pmid40350753, year = {2025}, author = {Hunter, PR}, title = {Future disease burden due to the rise of emerging infectious disease secondary to climate change may be being under-estimated.}, journal = {Virulence}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {2501243}, doi = {10.1080/21505594.2025.2501243}, pmid = {40350753}, issn = {2150-5608}, }
@article {pmid40350124, year = {2025}, author = {Antu, UB and Roy, TK and Kulsum, TI and Mitu, PR and Ismail, Z and Arifin, M and Datta, M and Hossain, SA and Islam, S and Mahiddin, NA and Al Bakky, A and Hossin, S and Islam, S and Idris, AM}, title = {Role of humic acid for climate change adaptation measures to boost up sustainable agriculture and soil health: A potential review.}, journal = {International journal of biological macromolecules}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {144043}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2025.144043}, pmid = {40350124}, issn = {1879-0003}, abstract = {Humic acids (HAs) are complex organic compounds produced through the degradation of plant and animal residues, which are typically found in organic wastes, compost, peat, lignite, and leonardite. HAs, being natural bio-stimulants, play crucial roles in sustaining soil health, enhancing plant productivity, and developing sustainable agriculture. Their ability to enhance soil aggregation, aeration, water holding capacity, and root penetration that improves plant growth and stress tolerance. HAs are also found to enhance microbial activity, plant nutrient uptake, and soil structure. They are also capable of antagonizing the adverse effects induced by numerous stressors such as heavy metals toxicity, salinity, and drought. Additionally, by sequestering carbon in the soil environment and minimizing the emission of greenhouse gases, HAs help to alleviate climate change. This review critically examines the multifaceted applications of HAs in sustainable agriculture, where their prospects to reconcile conventional farming into a climate-resilient form of farming are emphasized. It accentuates the heterogeneity of HAs' structures, their action modes against soil-plant interaction, and their potential to transform current agronomy on the global scale. The study is novel in its articulation of the integrated vision of HAs efficacy in various agronomic ecosystems and in determining drivers and critical knowledge gaps which it grapples in the modern agriculture. Future research will attempt to assess HAs application trends and fully utilize their agronomic and environmental benefits within the context of precision agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid40350111, year = {2025}, author = {Qin, Y and Fang, S and Zhao, Y and Liu, H and Wang, G and Lu, W}, title = {Born with Silurian global warming: Defensive role of TRPV1 in caudal neurosecretory system (CNSS) in flounder.}, journal = {International journal of biological macromolecules}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {144092}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2025.144092}, pmid = {40350111}, issn = {1879-0003}, abstract = {The caudal neurosecretory system (CNSS), unique to fish, emerged during the Silurian global warming period and appears to have an inevitable connection with "heat." Although TRPV1 is known to be a key molecule mediating high-temperature perception in fish, its role in CNSS remains unknown. Here, we found that TRPV1 located on Dahlgren cells in CNSS, is involved in sensing high-temperatures and helps flounder to respond correctly. Specifically, in the context of mild high-temperatures, Dahlgren cells expressing Urotensin I (UI) are the main active cell subpopulation. TRPV1 promotes the activation of the UI cell subpopulation by activating excitatory receptors, which in turn facilitates freezing behavior in flounder. When the accumulated temperature in the abdomen reaches avoidance high-temperatures, the firing activity of the UI cell subpopulation is inhibited, which is related to the TRPV1-mediated activation of NR3A. Accordingly, a subpopulation of Urotensin II (UII) cells was activated. Meanwhile, the expression of genes related to dopamine receptors and acetylcholine synthesis are significantly elevated, thereby mediating the avoidance behavior of flounder to escape from injury. Overall, these studies collectively elucidate the complex adaptive mechanisms employed by flounder in response to high-temperature fluctuations, with a special emphasis on the importance of CNSS temperature sensing.}, }
@article {pmid40349560, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, Y and Xu, Y and Li, X}, title = {Modeling the impacts of climate change on epifauna distribution in the southern Yellow Sea and East China Sea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {981}, number = {}, pages = {179624}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179624}, pmid = {40349560}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of eight epifaunal species in the southern Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, species distribution models were established using species data collected from bottom trawling surveys and marine environment data connected with the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The modeling results revealed that temperature and depth were the most important environmental factors in shaping the distribution patterns of epifauna. The coastal waters of China between 32°N and 34°N are projected to become a key region where climate change will significantly influence the distribution of epifaunal species under future scenarios. Under future climate scenarios, the distributions of Alpheus digitalis, Alpheus japonicus, Amblychaeturichthys hexanema and Solenocera crassicornis are projected to expand northward, crossing the 32°N ecological barrier zone. Even if the targets of the Paris Agreement are achieved, the potential distributions of epifauna will undergo substantial changes. These findings indicated that the ecological barrier is a multi-dimensional environmental space defined by various marine environmental factors, and future climate change may further diminish its effect.}, }
@article {pmid40346693, year = {2025}, author = {Muhling, B and Snyder, S and Hazen, EL and Whitlock, R and Park, JY and Stock, CA and Block, BA}, title = {Climate change impacts to foraging seascapes for a highly migratory top predator.}, journal = {Movement ecology}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {33}, pmid = {40346693}, issn = {2051-3933}, support = {NA20OAR4310507 and NA24OARX431G0004//NOAA/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is impacting the distribution and movement of mobile marine organisms globally. Statistical species distribution models are commonly used to explain past patterns and anticipate future shifts. However, purely correlative models can fail under novel environmental conditions, or omit key mechanistic processes driving species habitat use.<br><br>METHODS: Here, we used a unique combination of laboratory measurements, field observations, and environmental predictors to investigate spatial variability in energetic seascapes for juvenile North Pacific albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga). This species undertakes some of the longest migrations of any finfish, but their susceptibility to climate-driven habitat changes is poorly understood. We first built a framework based on Generalized Additive Models to understand mechanisms of energy gain and loss in albacore, and how these are linked to ocean conditions. We then applied the framework to projections from an ensemble of earth system models to quantify changes in thermal and foraging habitats between historical (1971-2000) and future (2071-2100) time periods.<br><br>RESULTS: We show how albacore move seasonally between feeding grounds in the California Current System and the offshore North Pacific, foraging most successfully in spring and summer. The thermal corridors used for migration largely coincide with minimum metabolic costs of movement. Future warming may result in loss of favorable thermal habitat in the sub-tropics and a reduction in total habitat area, but allow increased access to productive and energetically favorable sub-arctic ecosystems. Importantly, while thermal considerations suggest a loss in habitat area, forage considerations suggest that these losses may be offset by more energetically favorable conditions in the habitat that remains. In addition, the energetic favorability of coastal foraging areas may increase in future, with decreasing suitability of offshore foraging grounds. Our results clearly show the importance of moving beyond temperature when considering climate change impacts on marine species and their movement ecology.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Considering energetic seascapes adds essential mechanistic underpinning to projections of habitat gain and loss, particularly for highly migratory animals. Overall, improved understanding of mechanisms driving migration behavior, physiological constraints, and behavioral plasticity is required to better anticipate how climate change will impact pelagic marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid40346317, year = {2025}, author = {Taylor-Burns, R and Reguero, BG and Barnard, PL and Beck, MW}, title = {Nature-based solutions extend the lifespan of a regional levee system under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {16218}, pmid = {40346317}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention as a cost-effective climate adaptation strategy. Horizontal levees are nature-based adaptation solutions that include a sloping wetland habitat buffer fronting a levee. They can offer a hybrid solution to reinforce traditional levees in estuarine areas-plants on the horizontal levee can provide wave attenuation benefits as well as habitat benefits, but how the design of horizontal levees influences risk of levee failure remains unquantified. We use a hydrodynamic model, XBeach non-hydrostatic (XB-NH), to assess the stability and sustainability of existing levees and determine how hybrid nature-based climate adaptation measures can reduce the risk of overtopping on levees in San Francisco Bay. We compare overtopping rates in the existing levee system and in a variety of nature-based adaptation scenarios using a range of widths and slopes of horizontal levees to assess how horizontal levees perform in reducing risk of flooding, both with present day conditions and sea level rise. We show that climate change will challenge existing levee flood defenses in San Francisco Bay and increase the risk of overtopping, and that the nature-based solution of horizontal levees can meaningfully reduce risk of overtopping while simultaneously supporting marsh habitat. Flood risk reduction and habitat provision are both maximized with more gradually sloping and wider horizontal levee designs. Results show that the risk of overtopping can be reduced by up to 30% with horizontal levees. This analysis provides insight into horizontal levee design considerations and a methodological approach to adapt levees to prepare for climate change in urban wave-exposed estuaries. We show that horizontal levees can support preparation for the projected impacts of sea level rise (SLR) while simultaneously providing new intertidal wetland habitat.}, }
@article {pmid40346151, year = {2025}, author = {Elabd, E and Hamouda, HM and Ali, MAM and Fouad, Y}, title = {Climate change prediction in Saudi Arabia using a CNN GRU LSTM hybrid deep learning model in al Qassim region.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {16275}, pmid = {40346151}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change, which causes long-term temperature and weather changes, threatens natural ecosystems and cities. It has worldwide economic consequences. Climate change trends up to 2050 are predicted using the hybrid model that consists of Convolutional Neural Network-Gated Recurrent Unit-Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-GRU-LSTM), a unique deep learning architecture. With a focus on Al-Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia, the model assesses temperature, air temperature dew point, visibility distance, and atmospheric sea-level pressure. We used Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique for Regression with Gaussian Noise (SMOGN) to reduce dataset imbalance. The CNN-GRU-LSTM model was compared to 5 classic regression models: DTR, RFR, ETR, BRR, and K-Nearest Neighbors. Five main measures were used to evaluate model performance: MSE, MAE, MedAE, RMSE, and R[2]. After Min-Max normalization, the dataset was split into training (70%), validation (15%), and testing (15%) sets. The paper shows that the CNN-GRU-LSTM model beats standard regression methods in all four climatic scenarios, with R[2] values of 99.62%, 99.15%, 99.71%, and 99.60%. Deep learning predicts climate change well and can guide environmental policy and urban development decisions.}, }
@article {pmid40345087, year = {2025}, author = {Moghaddam, HK and Rahimzadeh Kivi, Z and Abtahizadeh, E and Abolfathi, S}, title = {Sustainable water allocation under climate change: Deep learning approaches to predict drinking water shortages.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {385}, number = {}, pages = {125600}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125600}, pmid = {40345087}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Addressing sustainable urban water supply has become one of the most critical challenges for modern megacities, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where rapid urbanization and climate change converge to exacerbate resource scarcity. Tehran, a metropolis under mounting water stress, exemplifies this global crisis. With population pressures, migration, poor urban planning, and inadequate environmental management intensifying the demand for water, reliance on groundwater surged to over 51 % of the city's total supply by 2021. This unsustainable dependence is compounded by severe aquifer depletion, now declining at an alarming rate of 32 cm annually. This study adopts advanced machine learning approaches to provide a forward-looking, integrative approach to understanding and mitigating the impacts of urban centralization, land-use mismanagement, and climate variability on Tehran's water resources. By leveraging hybrid simulation models, combining Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models with three optimization techniques (i.e. Fire Hawk Optimizer (FHO), Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), and Horse Optimization Algorithm (HOA)) this research offers a powerful tool for managing water allocation across five critical dam reservoirs and the Tehran aquifer. Our analysis reveals that the RNN-FHO model demonstrates superior performance in predicting dam inflows, while the RNN-WOA model excels in forecasting groundwater table fluctuations, providing a vital roadmap for water resource planners. We developed a robust conceptual model to address anticipated drinking water shortages by supplementing surface water with groundwater resources. To simulate future conditions, we employed three state-of-the-art climate models (MRI-ESM2, CNRM-CM6-1, and BCC-CSM2) across three emission pathways (SSP1.26, SSP2.45, and SSP5.85) for the period 2021-2050. The projections indicate a troubling trend: dam inflows could decline by 8% in the most optimistic scenario and by 11 % in the worst case. Furthermore, by 2030, water demand in Tehran is expected to exceed 2.2 BCM, intensifying pressure on groundwater resources and necessitating large-scale water transfers. Excessive groundwater extraction, ranging from 100 to 300 MCM, would result in drastic aquifer drawdowns of 46-171 cm, threatening both hydrological stability and environmental health. This study highlights the critical need for a paradigm shift in water management practices. A strategic approach, encompassing reductions in per capita water consumption, extensive recycling, improved use of treated effluent in urban landscapes, and optimized water allocation, is essential to avert a looming water crisis. The methodologies and insights presented in this study offer transformative solutions for water-stressed urban environments worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid40344332, year = {2025}, author = {Drake, JM and Wares, JP and Byers, JE and Anderson, JT}, title = {Two Hypotheses About Climate Change and Species Distributions.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {28}, number = {5}, pages = {e70134}, pmid = {40344332}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Animals ; *Models, Biological ; Biological Evolution ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Species' distributions are changing around the planet as a result of global climate change. Most research has focused on shifts in mean climate conditions, leaving the effects of increased environmental variability comparatively underexplored. This paper proposes two new macroecological hypotheses-the variability damping hypothesis and the variability adaptation hypothesis-to understand how ecological dynamics and evolutionary history could influence biogeographic patterns being forced by contemporary large-scale climate change across all major ecosystems. The variability damping hypothesis predicts that distributions of species living in deep water environments will be least affected by increasing climate-driven temperature variability compared with species in nearshore, intertidal and terrestrial environments. The variability adaptation hypothesis predicts the opposite. Where available, we discuss how the existing evidence aligns with these hypotheses and propose ways in which they may be empirically tested.}, }
@article {pmid40344026, year = {2025}, author = {Rad, SPH and Duque, TS and Flory, SL and do Nascimento, VG and Mendes, DS and Maciel, JC and Dos Santos, JB and Silva, RSD and Shabani, F}, title = {Predicting the spread of invasive Imperata cylindrica under climate change: A global risk assessment and future distribution scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {e0321027}, pmid = {40344026}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; Risk Assessment ; Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Invasive plant species, such as Imperata cylindrica (cogongrass), threaten native ecosystems, natural resources, and lands worldwide. With climate change, the risk of invasions may increase as more favorable conditions enable non-native species to spread into new areas. This study employs the CLIMEX model to predict the potential distribution of I. cylindrica under current and future climate scenarios, under the SRES A2 scenario. A comprehensive dataset comprising 6,414 occurrence records was used to simulate the species' ecological niche based on key climatic parameters, including temperature and soil moisture. Our results indicate that more than 16% of the global land surface is currently highly suitable for I. cylindrica (Ecoclimatic Index ≥ 30), with significant risk areas identified in Central America, Africa, and Australia. Future projections under the A2 scenario suggest an expansion of suitable habitats by 2050, 2080, and 2100, particularly in regions such as southern Argentina and parts of North America, while areas in Africa may experience a decrease in suitability due to rising temperatures. Sensitivity analysis revealed that temperature-related parameters (DV0, DV1, DV2, and DV3) are the most influential in determining the species' distribution, highlighting the critical role of climate in driving the invasive potential of I. cylindrica. These findings provide valuable insights into the future risks associated with I. cylindrica invasions.}, }
@article {pmid40343721, year = {2025}, author = {Sampaio, F and Marchioro, CA and Foerster, LA}, title = {Modeling parasitoid development: climate change impacts on Telenomus remus (Nixon) and Trichogramma foersteri (Takahashi) in southern Brazil.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.8888}, pmid = {40343721}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {//UNIEDU Postgraduate Program/ ; //Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The egg parasitoids Telenomus remus (Nixon) and Trichogramma foersteri (Takahashi) were recently collected in southern Brazil, expanding their potential use in biological control. Understanding how these species respond to temperature is essential to the effective implementation of biological control programs, especially in the context of global warming. In this study, phenological models were employed to assess the effects of temperature and climate change on their development.<br><br>RESULTS: Temperature had a significant impact on the development of Te. remus, with development times ranging from 52.7&#x2009;days at 15&#x2009;&#xb0;C to 8.1&#x2009;days at 35&#x2009;&#xb0;C. Parasitism peaked at 35&#x2009;&#xb0;C (124.15 eggs) and lowest at 15&#x2009;&#xb0;C (38.5 eggs). Emergence rates declined under extreme temperatures, especially at 15&#x2009;&#xb0;C. The Bri&#xe8;re-2 and Shi models were identified as the most appropriate for Te. remus and T. foersteri, respectively. Under the SSP2-4.5/2080 scenario, an increase in the number of generations was projected. In contrast, in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, higher temperatures may exceed the thermal thresholds of these species, potentially reducing voltinism in warmer regions while promoting it in colder areas.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Telenomus remus and T. foersteri exhibit broad thermal tolerance; however, extreme temperatures, including those predicted under climate change scenarios, can restrict their development. This study offers valuable insights for laboratory rearing programs, mass production, and field release programs while enhancing the understanding of thermal interactions in Hymenopteran parasitoids. &#xa9; 2025 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid40343684, year = {2025}, author = {Jiang, R and Liu, W and Pennings, SC}, title = {Global warming disrupts the relative allocation between sexual and clonal reproduction in a common salt marsh plant.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {106}, number = {5}, pages = {e70101}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.70101}, pmid = {40343684}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {32222054//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; OCE-0620959//US National Science Foundation awards to the Georgia Coastal Ecosystems Long-Term Ecological Research Program/ ; OCE-1237140//US National Science Foundation awards to the Georgia Coastal Ecosystems Long-Term Ecological Research Program/ ; OCE-1832178//US National Science Foundation awards to the Georgia Coastal Ecosystems Long-Term Ecological Research Program/ ; OCE-9982133//US National Science Foundation awards to the Georgia Coastal Ecosystems Long-Term Ecological Research Program/ ; }, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Wetlands ; Salinity ; Seawater/chemistry ; *Plant Development ; *Plants ; Random Forest ; Poaceae/physiology ; Reproduction/physiology ; Plant Dispersal/physiology ; }, abstract = {Adjusting relative allocation between sexual and clonal reproduction is part of how plants respond to a variable environment, but we know little about how the allocation strategies of plant populations vary over time as abiotic conditions change. We studied correlations between sexual and clonal reproduction using 23 years of data on the clonal salt marsh plant Spartina alterniflora at eight sites in coastal Georgia, USA. The relationship between sexual reproduction and clonal reproduction varied over time. Within years, sexual reproduction was negatively related to clonal reproduction. These relationships were stronger in cooler years and weaker in warmer years, with slopes ranging from -0.202 in cool years to -0.013 in warm years. The trade-offs were also affected by river discharge, with stronger (more negative) slopes as river discharge increased. In a random forest model, temperature had the greatest influence (58%) on the relationships compared to other global change variables (precipitation, river discharge, sea level, and tide range). Overall, our study demonstrated that climate warming gradually disrupts the negative correlation in allocation between reproductive modes in a common salt marsh plant, shifting the affected populations toward a near-total reliance on clonal reproduction, potentially limiting their spread and the generation of new genotypes.}, }
@article {pmid40342715, year = {2025}, author = {Chen, Y and Gu, Y and Wang, WJ and Wang, L and Li, X and Zong, S and Li, MH and Wu, Z and He, HS and Cong, Y and Jiang, M}, title = {Climate Change and Topography Drive the Expansion of Betula ermanii in the Alpine Treeline Ecotone of the Changbai Mountain.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e71368}, pmid = {40342715}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Alpine treelines ecotones are critical ecological transition zones and are highly sensitive to global warming. However, the impact of climate on the distribution of treeline trees is not yet fully understood as this distribution may also be affected by other factors. Here, we used high-resolution satellite images with climatic and topographic variables to study changes in treeline tree distribution in the alpine treeline ecotone of the Changbai Mountain for the years 2002, 2010, 2017, and 2021. This study employed the Geodetector method to analyze how interactions between climatic and topographic factors influence the expansion of Betula ermanii on different aspect slopes. Over the past 20 years, B. ermanii, the only tree species in the Changbai Mountain tundra zone, had its highest expansion rate from 2017 to 2021 across all the years studied, approaching 2.38% per year. In 2021, B. ermanii reached its uppermost elevations of 2224 m on the western aspects and 2223 m on the northern aspects, which are the predominant aspects it occupies. We also observed a notable increase in the distribution of B. ermanii on steeper slopes (> 15°) between 2002 and 2021. Moreover, we found that interactions between climate and topographic factors played a more significant role in B. ermanii's expansion than any single dominant factor. Our results suggest that the interaction between topographic wetness index and the coldest month precipitation (Pre1), contributing 91% of the observed variability, primarily drove the expansion on the southern aspect by maintaining soil moisture, providing snowpack thermal insulation which enhanced soil temperatures, decomposition, and nutrient release in harsh conditions. On the northern aspect, the interaction between elevation and mean temperature of the warmest month explained 80% of the expansion. Meanwhile, the interaction between Pre1 and mean temperature of the growing season explained 73% of the expansion on the western aspect. This study revealed that dominant factors driving treeline upward movement vary across different mountain aspects. Climate and topography play significant roles in determining tree distribution in the alpine treeline ecotone. This knowledge helps better understand and forecast treeline dynamics in response to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40342356, year = {2025}, author = {Muralidharan, A and Broekhuijsen, M and Lisondra, L and Guru, A and Haver, J and Irfan, S}, title = {The ripple effect: impacts of climate change on menstrual health and paths to resilience.}, journal = {Frontiers in global women's health}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {1569046}, pmid = {40342356}, issn = {2673-5059}, abstract = {Girls and women face greater threats and severe ramifications from climate change, with studies consistently finding that women experience more health risks from climate change than men do. Climate change endangers girls and women's sexual and reproductive health and rights, including their menstrual health and hygiene practices. However, menstrual health and hygiene is rarely discussed in the context of climate change. We scoped the existing evidence to describe the interlinkages between climate change and menstrual health and hygiene, and outline services that anticipate, respond to, cope with, recover from, adapt to or transform in response to climate related events, trends and disturbances. Specifically, we describe how climate change disrupts access to essential menstrual health and hygiene information, products and services, impacts menstrual disorders and the menstrual cycle, and intensifies existing inequalities. Recommendations for improvement include climate resilient menstrual health and hygiene services encompassing access to menstrual products and materials, impartment of knowledge and skills, access to climate resilient facilities and services, social support, and policy actions.}, }
@article {pmid40342171, year = {2025}, author = {Haugestad, CAP and Carlquist, E}, title = {'You can't live in fear all the time': Affective dilemmas in Youth's discussions on climate change in Norway.}, journal = {The British journal of social psychology}, volume = {64}, number = {3}, pages = {e12888}, doi = {10.1111/bjso.12888}, pmid = {40342171}, issn = {2044-8309}, support = {//UIO: Nordic/ ; //Reimagining Norden in an Evolving World (ReNEW)/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Norway/ethnology ; *Climate Change ; Adolescent ; Female ; Male ; *Fear/psychology ; *Anxiety/psychology ; Focus Groups ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Emotional responses to anthropogenic climate change have attracted significant attention. People negotiate emotions through culturally available frameworks. This study, based on 18 focus group discussions, explores in detail three instances of how Norwegian youth engage affectively with climate change. Utilising affect and discourse theory, we conceptualise affective dilemmas as conflicts arising from contradictory expectations made available through discourse. These dilemmas are negotiated through affective-discursive practices. Through a discourse-oriented analysis, we illustrate how ecological distress is interpreted, enacted, and resisted. We identified three key affective-discursive dilemmas: (a) climate anxiety as voluntary versus involuntary, (b) fear as motivation versus a barrier for climate action, and (c) responsibility for climate actions versus self-care. Participants engaged in practices such as (a) purposeful engagement with climate anxiety, (b) detachment from ecological distress, and (c) self-care and staying positive. The study contributes to social psychology by applying affective-discursive theory to understand how youth make sense of and use eco-emotion categories in dialogue. It empirically shows how discussions on ecological issues reflect cultural expectations of self-care and positivity and individualised emotional management. The analysis highlights how socio-cultural imperatives shape youths' emotional responses, which may sideline collective climate action and favour psychological solutions to ecological crises.}, }
@article {pmid40341424, year = {2025}, author = {Atashgahi, Z and Erfanian, MB and Moazzeni, H and Shemirani, G and Pirani, A}, title = {Endemic cushions of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province show differential responses to future climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {16046}, pmid = {40341424}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Iran ; Altitude ; }, abstract = {Climate change negatively affects mountainous plants and leads to their range contraction or extinction. Cushion plants are the essential components of mountainous ecosystems. Although cushions represent the dominant vegetation form of the mountains of the Irano-Anatolian Biodiversity Hotspot, the impacts of climate change on these plants have been merely studied. The present study investigates the effects of climate change on the distribution of endemic cushion species in the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province, the eastern-most part of the Irano-Anatolian Biodiversity Hotspot. We predicted the current and future range of 19 cushions in 2040 and 2100, using 19 bioclimatic layers along with two different SSPs and an ensemble of 12 modeling algorithms. These species belong to Acantholimon, Acanthophyllum, Astragalus, Jurinea, and Thymus genera. Our findings revealed that approximately all studied species will face range contraction. On the other hand, Jurinea antunowi, Acantholimon restiaceum, and Acanthophyllum speciosum will show negligible responses to climate change effects. Moreover, all analyzed species would shift upward in their altitudinal distribution range. The predicted range size contraction of the surveyed genera will vary between 36 to 91 percent, where Acanthophyllum and Thymus will show the least and the most contraction, respectively. Based on our findings, we have provided recommendations for conservation of vulnerable species and sustainable mountainous habitats restorations.}, }
@article {pmid40339693, year = {2025}, author = {Scheen, A}, title = {Obesity and global warming: a two-way relationship?.}, journal = {Annales d'endocrinologie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {101783}, doi = {10.1016/j.ando.2025.101783}, pmid = {40339693}, issn = {2213-3941}, abstract = {Our modern society has to face several health problems, among which climate change characterized by global warming and increased pollution and obesity epidemic and associated morbidities are prominent ones. Interestingly, several epidemiological studies argue for a closed connection between these two health concerns, in fact pointing out a bidirectional relationship. Global warming and its associated exposure to pollutants could contribute to weight gain through different mechanisms, including some endocrine disorders linked to adipocyte dysfunction (adiposopathy) and reduced thermogenesis, as well as a reluctance to physical activity in a hot ambient temperature. Conversely, obesity epidemic may play a role in global warming by an increased consumption of energetic ultra-processed foods and an enhanced energy waste for transportation, both leading to increased greenhouse gas emission. Thus, there is an urgent need for greater action to slow the process of global warming also to prevent harmful effects on health linked to obesity epidemic.}, }
@article {pmid40339021, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, C and Yang, J}, title = {US policies undermine climate change efforts.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {388}, number = {6747}, pages = {596-597}, doi = {10.1126/science.adx3136}, pmid = {40339021}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid40338961, year = {2025}, author = {Norman, G}, title = {Conversation in My Parlor About Climate Change and the Call to Thoughtful Service by Lawyers with Disabilities.}, journal = {Journal of law and health}, volume = {38}, number = {3}, pages = {329-382}, pmid = {40338961}, issn = {1044-6419}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; United States ; *Persons with Disabilities/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Lawyers ; }, abstract = {Pope John Paul II penned, "So much of our world seems to be in fragments, in disjointed pieces." Experts admonish that an irreparable threshold of 1.5°C for global temperatures is not a theoretical remonstrance but an imminent imperative. Is this true? This article will explore if climate change exists. I will thoughtfully respond to this question in the affirmative, exploring center-based solutions. Specifically, this article will urge that these great United States require a new generation of leaders who can embody the energy of a Brother President Theodore Roosevelt, who possesses the eloquence of President John Kennedy, and who, like President Reagan, can maintain and show a bullish "love" of the country. The law is one of many tools and this new generation of leaders, who will use those tools, must better reflect the diversity of modern America. Specifically, I urge inclusion by lawyers with disabilities in leading center-based solutions to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40338493, year = {2025}, author = {Martins-Oliveira, AT and Eisenlohr, PV and Canale, GR and Pires-Oliveira, JC and José-Silva, L and Barros-Rosa, L and Moreira, LS and de Melo, FR}, title = {Saguinus martinsi: predicted loss of habitat suitability following global warming and insights for the conservation of the species.}, journal = {Primates; journal of primatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40338493}, issn = {1610-7365}, support = {code 001//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is directly influenced by human actions due to land use and occupation. In this way, factors related to environments conditions, concomitant with anthropogenic impacts, determine the suitability of environments for species. We analyze the present-day and future suitability of environments for Saguinus martinsi, a primate species endemic to the Brazilian Amazon region. We analyzed two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), one "optimistic" (SSP2-4.5) and the other "pessimistic" (SSP5-8.5), described by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We created the models using climatic, edaphic, and topographic variables based on the Euclidean Distance algorithm. Our results indicate that S. martinsi may face severe threats in the near future as a consequence of climate change, given that no environmentally suitable areas were identified for the species in either of the future climate scenarios analyzed. We understand that it is necessary to expand searches for the presence and/or absence of the species in potentially environmentally suitable areas, in addition to consolidating measures to mitigate environmental impacts for the conditions found.}, }
@article {pmid40336133, year = {2025}, author = {Yao, Y and Dai, Z}, title = {Climate change news exposure, first and third-person effects, and eco-anxiety in the Chinese general population: a moderation model.}, journal = {BMC psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {483}, pmid = {40336133}, issn = {2050-7283}, support = {ZD24150//Jilin Provincial Education Science/ ; ZD24150//Jilin Provincial Education Science/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; *Anxiety/psychology ; China ; Middle Aged ; *Mass Media ; Young Adult ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Adolescent ; Aged ; East Asian People ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This study examines the relationship between exposure to climate change news and eco-anxiety in the Chinese general population, exploring the moderating effects of first-person effect (FPE) and third-person effect (TPE).<br><br>METHODS: Utilizing a non-representative sample of 1483 Chinese adults, we conducted an online survey assessing media consumption across traditional and digital platforms, FPE, TPE, and eco-anxiety. The survey included structured items measuring the frequency and impact of climate change news exposure, alongside scales for assessing eco-anxiety and perceptual biases (FPE and TPE).<br><br>RESULTS: Preliminary analyses indicate a significant correlation between higher exposure to climate change news and increased levels of eco-anxiety. Moderation analysis revealed that both FPE and TPE significantly influenced the relationship between news exposure and eco-anxiety, with FPE strengthening and TPE weakening this association.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that the way individuals perceive the impact of climate change news-on themselves versus others-moderates the emotional response to such news. Specifically, those who perceive a greater personal impact (FPE) experience higher eco-anxiety, whereas those who perceive a greater impact on others (TPE) report lower anxiety levels. This study highlights the need for nuanced media communication strategies that consider these perceptual biases to manage public emotional responses to climate change effectively.}, }
@article {pmid40335813, year = {2025}, author = {Biever, C}, title = {How climate change will burden our children: data reveal a lifetime of extreme heat.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {641}, number = {8063}, pages = {571-572}, pmid = {40335813}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid40335779, year = {2025}, author = {Namara, WG and Rabba, ZA and Fanta, SS and Hode, EW and Merkos, MT}, title = {Watershed hydrological response in developing climate change resilience and adaptation strategies, case of Gilgal Gibe watershed, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {6}, pages = {634}, pmid = {40335779}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Ethiopia ; *Climate Change ; Hydrology ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Rivers ; Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most challenging and inevitable global environmental problems affecting mankind and its environment regardless of urban and rural areas. Its effect on watershed hydrology is challenging the sustainable water resources management and its availability across the globe. In order to develop a sustainable climate change adaptation strategy, understanding watershed hydrological response to the ever increasing climate change is highly important. Hence, the main objective of this study was investigating role of watershed hydrological response in developing climate resilience and adaptation strategy as a case study in Gilgal Gibe watershed,OmoGibe river basin, Ethiopia. To achieve the main objective of the study, three regional climate models (RCM) derived from one global climate model (GCM) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were collected from CORDEX Africa. The observed weather data and stream flow data were collected from National Meteorological Agency (NMA) and Ministry of Water and Energy (MoWE). The Climate data from CORDEX like maximum and minimum temperature, and precipitation were extracted using R-programming. These data were analyzed against the 1986-2016 baseline data and projected for near-future term (2020-2050) andmid-futureterm (2051-2080). The climate dataset trend analysis over the specified period was conducted using Mann-Kendall test, and the hydrological modeling was performed using the calibrated and validated HEC-HMS hydrological modeling tool. From the analysis, it was found that hydro-climate variability over the proposed time horizon was clearly observed from all RCM under both greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The stream flow revealed an oscillating trend over the course of the operation years under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Hence, this information is important for water resources manager, decision makers, practitioners and policy makers so as to enable them develop sustainable climate change resilience and adaptation strategies across the watershed.}, }
@article {pmid40335717, year = {2025}, author = {}, title = {Time for adults to finally act like adults on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {641}, number = {8062}, pages = {282}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-025-01380-w}, pmid = {40335717}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid40334409, year = {2025}, author = {Dong, X and Gong, J and Zhang, W and Zhang, S and Yang, G and Yan, C and Wang, R and Zhang, S and Wang, T and Yu, Y and Xie, Q}, title = {Future climate change increase species vulnerability and present new opportunities for biodiversity conservation in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {385}, number = {}, pages = {125652}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125652}, pmid = {40334409}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change is exerting severe pressure on terrestrial biodiversity. It is essential to clarify how vulnerabilities to climate change differ among taxonomic groups to mitigate biodiversity loss. Conservation planning should aim to minimize additional threats while maximizing the opportunities that climate change offers. In this study, we used species distribution models to simulate the current and future (2050s) suitable distributions of Chinese mammals, reptiles, amphibians, birds, and plants. We analyzed the climate change vulnerability across these taxonomic groups and identified conservation priorities based on the vulnerable and opportunity areas that will result from climate change. By the 2050s, the losses of current habitat suitable for amphibians, mammals, reptiles, birds, and plants will reach 26.8 %, 16.8 %, 13.8 %, 11.9 %, and 10.0 %, respectively, indicating high vulnerability to climate change. The relative loss of suitable habitat is influenced by the threat status of species. Spatially, the areas of China with the highest vulnerability to climate change are mainly distributed in the north, northwest, and Qinghai-Tibet regions, whereas high-opportunity areas are mainly in the south. Areas with high opportunity and vulnerability will together account for 11.8 % of land area in China and represent conservation priorities for reducing species extinction. However, provinces with large priority areas will have lower human development and human footprint indexes, which will challenge the successful implementation of conservation efforts. Our results highlight the different responses of different Chinese taxonomic groups to climate change and will guide the selection of crucial areas for reducing species extinction risk.}, }
@article {pmid40332829, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, B and Li, L and Zhang, Z and Ran, H and Xing, M}, title = {Modeling the Potential Distribution and Future Dynamics of Important Vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus Under Climate Change Scenarios in China.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {16}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {40332829}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2024YFD1800204//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 32202842//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; LH2021C019//Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province/ ; }, abstract = {In the context of global warming, there is an increasing risk of the emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases (VBDs). As one of the most important vectors, Culex tritaeniorhynchus can carry and transmit numerous human and animal infectious pathogens. To better understand the current distribution and possible future dynamics of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in China, an ecological niche modeling approach (MaxEnt) was adopted to model its current and future habitat suitability. The most comprehensive dataset (1100 occurrence records) in China to date was established for model training. Multiple global climate models (GCMs) and climate change scenarios were introduced into the model to counter the uncertainties of future climate change. Based on the model prediction, Cx. tritaeniorhynchus currently exhibits high habitat suitability in southern, central, and coastal regions of China. It is projected that its suitable niche will experience continuous expansion, and the core distribution is anticipated to shift northward in the future 21st century (by the 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). Several environmental variables that reflect temperature, precipitation, and land-use conditions were considered to have a significant influence on the distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus, among which annual mean temperature and urban land contribute the most to the model. Our study conducted a quantitative analysis of the shift and expansion of the future habitats of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus, providing references for vector monitoring and the prevention and control of VBDs.}, }
@article {pmid40330693, year = {2025}, author = {Abbasi, E}, title = {Climate Change and Vector-Borne Disease Transmission: The Role of Insect Behavioral and Physiological Adaptations.}, journal = {Integrative organismal biology (Oxford, England)}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {obaf011}, pmid = {40330693}, issn = {2517-4843}, abstract = {Climate change is profoundly reshaping the behavior, physiology, and distribution of insect vectors, with significant implications for vector-borne disease transmission. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events are driving behavioral adaptations such as altered host-seeking patterns, modified resting site preferences, and extended seasonal activity. Concurrently, vectors exhibit physiological plasticity, including enhanced thermal tolerance, desiccation resistance, and accelerated reproductive cycles, which contribute to increased survival and vector competence. This review synthesizes current research on climate-driven adaptations in major disease vectors, focusing on their epidemiological consequences and implications for public health interventions. A systematic literature review was conducted using major scientific databases to assess the impact of climate change on insect vector adaptation. Studies examining temperature-induced behavioral shifts, physiological modifications, and changes in vector competence were analyzed to identify emerging trends and knowledge gaps. Findings indicate that climate-driven vector adaptations are increasing the efficiency of disease transmission, enabling the geographic expansion of vector populations and prolonging transmission seasons. These changes challenge existing vector control strategies, necessitating innovative approaches such as genetic engineering, microbiome-based interventions, and climate-informed surveillance systems. Given the accelerating impact of climate change, there is an urgent need for adaptive, evidence-based control strategies to mitigate the growing threat of vector-borne diseases and enhance global health resilience.}, }
@article {pmid40330615, year = {2025}, author = {Wanner, SP and Bitencourt, DP and Teixeira-Coelho, F and Prímola-Gomes, TN}, title = {Consequences of climate change on human health and performance and mitigation strategies in Brazil.}, journal = {Temperature (Austin, Tex.)}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {85-87}, pmid = {40330615}, issn = {2332-8940}, }
@article {pmid40330178, year = {2025}, author = {Shafagh, SG and Moradi-Asl, E and Mirzagholipour, M and Sahlabadi, AS and Esmaeili, SV and Karami, C}, title = {Impact of Global Climate-Change on Ecology of Anopheles Mosquitoes: A Systematic Review.}, journal = {Iranian journal of public health}, volume = {54}, number = {3}, pages = {542-553}, pmid = {40330178}, issn = {2251-6093}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This study investigated the impact of climate variables on the prevalence of malaria, a climate-sensitive infectious disease.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic review was conducted on articles published from Mar 2000 to Aug 2023 in Persian and English languages. Overall, 10,731 articles were retrieved, and 58 studies were included in the analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate variables such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity play a significant role in predicting malaria outbreaks, with inconsistencies observed in different regions, including Iran. The study highlights the need for tailored preventive.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Strategies and interventions to address the impact of climate change on malaria transmission. Enhanced health system resilience is essential to combat the anticipated rise in malaria cases in the future.}, }
@article {pmid40329287, year = {2025}, author = {Tariq, H and Nazar, S and Umm-E-Rabab,  and Ourangzaib, S}, title = {Perceptions of medical and public health professionals on climate change and emerging health challenges in Pakistan: a multi-scale approach.}, journal = {BMC medical education}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {665}, pmid = {40329287}, issn = {1472-6920}, mesh = {Humans ; Pakistan ; *Climate Change ; Qualitative Research ; Focus Groups ; *Public Health ; *Health Personnel/psychology ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Perception ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Climate change is a significant global health threat, disproportionately impacting low- and middle-income countries. Urban centres like Karachi, Pakistan, face rising incidences of vector-borne and waterborne diseases because of changing climate (CC). This study aimed to explore the perceptions of healthcare professionals regarding climate change, its health impacts, and their role in addressing these challenges.<br><br>METHODS: A qualitative study was conducted using nine focus group discussions with 46 healthcare professionals, including doctors, nurses, and public health experts from three major hospitals and two postgraduate institutions in Karachi. Participants were recruited through snowball sampling, and data were collected using semi-structured interviews. Thematic analysis was conducted to identify both manifest and latent themes in the data.<br><br>RESULTS: The analysis revealed seven major themes: awareness of climate change, health impacts, economic and social consequences, environmental and natural disasters, the role of healthcare professionals, mitigation strategies, and policy challenges. Participants demonstrated varied levels of awareness, influenced by their educational background and professional specialization, with public health professionals exhibiting a broader understanding compared to other healthcare workers. Key concerns included the rise of infectious diseases, food insecurity, and urban resource strain. Participants identified barriers such as inadequate training, limited resources, and weak policy enforcement that hinder their ability to address climate impacts effectively.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare professionals in Karachi play a critical role in mitigating climate-related health impacts. Enhanced education, integration of climate change into medical curricula, and interdisciplinary collaboration are essential. Strengthened policies and systemic investments are needed to empower healthcare workers as leaders in climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid40329020, year = {2025}, author = {Otieno, TA and Otieno, LA and Rotich, B and Löhr, K and Kipkulei, HK}, title = {Modeling climate change impacts and predicting future vulnerability in the Mount Kenya forest ecosystem using remote sensing and machine learning.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {6}, pages = {631}, pmid = {40329020}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Kenya ; *Machine Learning ; *Remote Sensing Technology ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Ecosystem ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {The Mount Kenya forest ecosystem (MKFE), a crucial biodiversity hotspot and one of Kenya's key water towers, is increasingly threatened by climate change, putting its ecological integrity and vital ecosystem services at risk. Understanding the interactions between climate extremes and forest dynamics is essential for conservation planning, especially in the Mount Kenya Forest Ecosystem (MKFE), where rising temperatures and erratic rainfall are altering vegetation patterns, reducing forest resilience, and threatening both biodiversity and water security. This study integrates remote sensing and machine learning to assess historical vegetation changes and predict areas at risk in the future. Landsat imagery from 2000 to 2020 was used to derive vegetation indices comprising the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and Bare Soil Index (BSI). Climate variables, including extreme precipitation and temperature indices, were extracted from CHIRPS and ERA5 datasets. Machine learning models, including Random Forest (RF), XGBoost, and Support Vector Machines (SVM), were trained to assess climate-vegetation relationships and predict future vegetation dynamics under the SSP245 climate scenario using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) downscaled projections. The RF model achieved high accuracy (R[2] = 0.82, RMSE = 0.15) in predicting the dynamics of vegetation conditions. Model projections show a 49-55% decline in EVI across forest areas by 2040, with the most pronounced losses likely in lower montane zones, which are more sensitive to climate-induced vegetation stress. Results emphasize the critical role of precipitation in sustaining forest health and highlight the urgent need for adaptive management strategies, including afforestation, sustainable land-use planning, and policy-driven conservation efforts. This study provides a scalable framework for modelling climate impacts on forest ecosystems globally and offers actionable insights for policymakers.}, }
@article {pmid40327213, year = {2025}, author = {Malik, M and De Guzman, RB}, title = {Building climate resilience and mitigating the impact of climate change on cancer care: strategies and solutions for low and middle income countries.}, journal = {Cancer causes &amp; control : CCC}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40327213}, issn = {1573-7225}, abstract = {Climate change poses an enormous threat to human health. It increases exposure to risk factors related to cancer while simultaneously threatening effective cancer care in the face of overstrained resources and natural hazards. Low and middle income countries (LMICs) are disproportionately affected by the effects of climate change which further limits their ability to respond effectively to this growing threat. Measures to build resilience and mitigate the impact warrant multi-sectoral local and global collaborations. Mitigation strategies positively impact cancer control by reducing exposure to risk factors. The current pace of climate change and the rising rates of cancer incidence in LMICs calls for urgent, effective, evidence-based global efforts toward protecting the health and wellbeing of our planet. This paper discusses strategies to build climate resilience in healthcare and measures to mitigate the emissions of oncology care in LMICs.}, }
@article {pmid40325587, year = {2025}, author = {Qamar, W and Qayum, M}, title = {The Syndemic of Climate Change, Migration, and Mental Health: A Global Health Perspective.}, journal = {Journal of the College of Physicians and Surgeons--Pakistan : JCPSP}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {657-660}, doi = {10.29271/jcpsp.2025.05.657}, pmid = {40325587}, issn = {1681-7168}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Mental Health ; *Global Health ; *Emigration and Immigration ; *Refugees/psychology ; *Syndemic ; *Mental Disorders/epidemiology ; *Mental Health Services ; Health Services Accessibility ; }, abstract = {This paper explores climate change as a catalyst for mass migration, emphasising the resulting mental health consequences for displaced populations. The tendency of social ties upon migration is substantial, as these provide both resources and stress, while the severance of such ties tends to worsen mental illness. Insufficient access to mental health services for migrants has been attributed to a lack of resources, legal barriers, and negative attitudes of the community. Furthermore, migration related to climate change may provoke competition over scarce resources which will worsen the mental health situation. Although some psychosocial support arrangements have been shown to work, people are still unable to obtain such treatment, especially in resource-poor countries. Such findings demonstrate why it is essential that any response to climate migration policy incorporate mental health as a component of most, if not all, climate policy measures. In this regard, it calls for the promotion of comprehensive and flexible mental healthcare systems, increased a funding for programmes targeting refugees, and redesigning a priority setting oriented in addressing the chronic mental health problems among refugee populations. Key Words: Syndemic, Climate change, Migration, Mental health, Global health.}, }
@article {pmid40325155, year = {2025}, author = {Yves, A and Azevedo, JAR and Pirani, RM and Werneck, FP}, title = {Local adaptation has a role in reducing vulnerability to climate change in a widespread Amazonian forest lizard.}, journal = {Heredity}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40325155}, issn = {1365-2540}, support = {##425571/2018-1 and #406239/2022-3//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; #311504/2020-5//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; 300739/2022-2//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amaz&#xf4;nia (National Institute of Amazonian Research)/ ; }, abstract = {The extant genetic variation within and among taxa reflects a long history of diversification and adaptive mechanisms in response to climate change and landscape alterations. However, the velocity of current anthropogenic changes poses an imminent threat to global biodiversity. Understanding how species and populations might respond to global climate change provides valuable information for conservation in the face of these impacts. Here, we use genomic data to observe candidate loci under climate selection and test for genetic vulnerability to climate change in a widespread Amazonian ombrophilous lizard population. We found nine populations across Amazonia with a considerable amount of admixture among them. Distinct approaches of genome-environment association analyses revealed 56 candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) under climatic selection, showing an east-west gradient in the adaptive landscape and a signal of local climate adaptation across the species range. According to our results, signals of local adaptation indicate that the species may not respond equally throughout its range, with some populations facing higher extinction risks. Genomic offset analysis predicts the southern and central portions of Amazonia to have a higher vulnerability to future climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of considering spatially explicit contexts with a large sampling coverage to evaluate how local adaptation and climatic vulnerability affect Amazonian forest ectothermic fauna.}, }
@article {pmid40324926, year = {2025}, author = {Logie, CH and Hasham, A and Kagunda, J and Evelia, H and Gachoki, C and Omondi, B and Wanjiru, M and Gittings, L and Van Borek, S and Newman, PA and Fuller-Thomson, E and Taing, L and Sternthal, I and Weiser, S and Hogg, R and Turan, J}, title = {Climate change, resource insecurities and sexual and reproductive health among young adolescents in Kenya: a multi-method qualitative inquiry.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2024-016637}, pmid = {40324926}, issn = {2059-7908}, mesh = {Kenya ; Humans ; Adolescent ; Female ; Male ; *Climate Change ; Qualitative Research ; *Reproductive Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Sexual Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Focus Groups ; Child ; Middle Aged ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Growing evidence supports linkages between climate change and extreme weather events (EWEs) and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) among adults. Yet knowledge gaps persist regarding climate-related experiences and pathways to SRH among young adolescents (YA). We conducted a multi-method qualitative study to explore climate change-related factors and linkages with SRH among YA aged 10-14 years in Kenya.<br><br>METHODS: This six-site study was conducted in Nairobi's urban slum Mathare; Naivasha's flower farming community; Kisumu's fishing community; Isiolo's nomadic and pastoralist community; Kilifi's coastal smallholder farms and Kalobeyei refugee settlement. Methods involved: n=12 elder focus groups, n=60 YA walk-along interviews (WAIs) and n=12 2-day YA participatory mapping workshops (PMWs). We conducted codebook thematic analysis informed by the resource insecurity framework.<br><br>RESULTS: Participants (n=297) included: elders (n=119; mean age: 60.6 years, SD: 7.9; men: 48.7%, women: 51.3%), YA WAI participants (n=60; mean age: 13.4, SD: 1.5; boys: 51.4%, girls: 48.6%) and YA PMW participants (n=118; mean age: 12.1, SD: 1.3; boys: 50.8%, girls: 49.2%). Narratives identified climate-related changes and EWEs increased existing resource insecurities that, in turn, were linked directly and indirectly with SRH vulnerabilities. Food and water insecurity contributed to YA missing school, sexual violence, transactional sex and exploitative relationships. Sanitation insecurity produced challenges regarding menstrual hygiene, sexual violence risks and transactional sex. Transactional sex and exploitative relationships were linked with unplanned pregnancy and sexually transmitted infection risks. Gender inequities increased girls' risks for violence and sexual exploitation, whereas boys were more prone to running away.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We found that climate change exacerbated resource insecurities that may drive SRH outcomes among YA in Kenya. We developed a conceptual model to illustrate these pathways linking climate change, EWEs, resource insecurities and SRH. Climate-informed interventions should consider these pathways within larger social environmental contexts to advance young adolescent SRH in Kenya.}, }
@article {pmid40324314, year = {2025}, author = {Lu, H and Mokarram, M}, title = {Forecasting climate change effects on Saline Lakes through advanced remote sensing and deep learning.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {980}, number = {}, pages = {179582}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179582}, pmid = {40324314}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Given the vital role of saline lakes in supporting ecosystems in arid regions, this study analyzes their long-term changes by assessing their characteristics and spectral reflectance properties. Alongside evaluating the physical and chemical variations of these lakes, the research integrates climate change modeling to predict future shifts in their features and assess ecological impacts on surrounding environments. By employing Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network (SRGAN) and Multiresolution Segmentation (MRS), this approach enhances satellite image resolution and enables more precise differentiation of key lake components-such as salt deposits, salinity levels, and moisture fluctuations. The results show that increasing image resolution with SRGAN and using these images as input data for image classification models improves the identification of physical characteristics and the prediction of chemical properties of lakes with greater detail. The proposed method, based on Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov modeling of albedo and infrared wave reflectance, predicts a roughly 15 % increase in salinity of the studied lakes by 2050, driven by rising temperatures, intensified evaporation, and declining moisture levels. Finally, the results of climate change predictions based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm, with high accuracy (R[2] > 0.9), indicate increasing temperatures and evaporation in the coming years. Consequently, these rising temperatures will elevate salinity, drying, and albedo intensity in Chaka, Tuz, and Razzaza Lakes over the coming decades. This is supported by RCP8.5 scenarios, which project significant increases by 2100 that lead to greater evaporation and salinity. These changes have profound implications for surrounding ecosystems, particularly by affecting plant communities and accelerating desertification around these saline lakes.}, }
@article {pmid40324070, year = {2025}, author = {Lobell, DB and Di Tommaso, S}, title = {A half-century of climate change in major agricultural regions: Trends, impacts, and surprises.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {20}, pages = {e2502789122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2502789122}, pmid = {40324070}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {996304//W. M. Keck Foundation (WMKF)/ ; }, abstract = {Efforts to anticipate and adapt to future climate can benefit from historical experiences. We examine agroclimatic conditions over the past 50 y for five major crops around the world. Most regions experienced rapid warming relative to interannual variability, with 45% of summer and 32% of winter crop area warming by more than two SD (σ). Vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a key driver of plant water stress, also increased in most temperate regions but not in the tropics. Precipitation trends, while important in some locations, were generally below 1σ. Historical climate model simulations show that observed changes in crops' climate would have been well predicted by models run with historical forcings, with two main surprises: i) models substantially overestimate the amount of warming and drying experienced by summer crops in North America, and ii) models underestimate the increase in VPD in most temperate cropping regions. Linking agroclimatic data to crop productivity, we estimate that climate trends have caused current global yields of wheat, maize, and barley to be 10, 4, and 13% lower than they would have otherwise been. These losses likely exceeded the benefits of CO2 increases over the same period, whereas CO2 benefits likely exceeded climate-related losses for soybean and rice. Aggregate global yield losses are very similar to what models would have predicted, with the two biases above largely offsetting each other. Climate model biases in reproducing VPD trends may partially explain the ineffectiveness of some adaptations predicted by modeling studies, such as farmer shifts to longer maturing varieties.}, }
@article {pmid40323809, year = {2025}, author = {Iordanou, K and Kuhn, D}, title = {Investigating climate change through argumentation: Purposeful questioning supports argumentation and knowledge acquisition.}, journal = {Journal of experimental psychology. Applied}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1037/xap0000534}, pmid = {40323809}, issn = {1939-2192}, abstract = {Over several weeks, 125 young adolescents engaged deeply with the topic of climate change in a discourse-based program designed to build argumentation skills. We put to a test the hypothesis that information on this complex and critical topic is best acquired and made use of in argument if acquiring it is experienced as having purpose and able to fulfill a role in argument. Activities in an experimental condition followed the program's practice of making available topic-related information in the form of brief questions and answers on an as-requested basis. Offered to them as a potential resource in peer dialogs on the topic, throughout the activity participants selected questions they wished answers to, and these were provided. Students in a comparison condition followed the traditional classroom practice of being assigned to read an introductory text as background information on the topic. It contained information identical to that in the questions and answer cards experimental group participants chose to access. Under both conditions, all information remained available once accessed. Both groups benefited in knowledge gain, as well as skill development in coordinating evidence with claims in final essays. However, the experimental group showed greater knowledge as well as skill gain, and a difference we suggest is attributable to the knowledge gained having an anticipated purpose making them more likely to make use of it. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).}, }
@article {pmid40323496, year = {2025}, author = {Oyelayo, EA and Taiwo, TJ and Oyelude, SO and Alao, JO}, title = {The global impact of industrialisation and climate change on antimicrobial resistance: assessing the role of Eco-AMR Zones.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {6}, pages = {625}, pmid = {40323496}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Industrial Development ; *Drug Resistance, Microbial/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; Environmental Monitoring ; Genes, Microbial ; Computational Biology ; Anti-Bacterial Agents ; }, abstract = {This study examines the relationship between industrialisation, climate change, and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) gene prevalence. Data analysis from the top 20 highly industrialised and the top 20 least industrialised nations revealed that industrial activities significantly contribute to global warming, with temperature increases of up to 2 °C observed in highly industrialised regions. These environmental changes influence the distribution and evolution of AMR genes, as rising temperatures can affect bacterial resistance in a manner similar to antibiotics. Through a bioinformatics approach, a marked disparity in AMR gene frequencies was observed between highly industrialised and less industrialised nations, with developed countries reporting higher frequencies due to extensive antibiotic use and advanced monitoring systems. 'Eco-AMR Zones' is proposed as a solution to specialised areas by promoting sustainable industrial practices, enforcing pollution controls, and regulating antibiotic use to mitigate AMR's environmental and public health impacts. These zones, supported by collaboration across various sectors, offer a promising approach to preserving antibiotic effectiveness and reducing environmental degradation. The study emphasises the importance of integrated global strategies that address both the ecological and public health challenges posed by AMR, advocating for sustainable practices, international collaboration, and ongoing research to combat the evolving threats of climate change and antimicrobial resistance.}, }
@article {pmid40321670, year = {2025}, author = {Law, BE and Abatzoglou, JT and Schwalm, CR and Byrne, D and Fann, N and Nassikas, NJ}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change contributes to wildfire particulate matter and related mortality in the United States.}, journal = {Communications earth &amp; environment}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {336}, pmid = {40321670}, issn = {2662-4435}, abstract = {Climate change has increased forest fire extent in temperate and boreal North America. Here, we quantified the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to human mortality and economic burden from exposure to wildfire particulate matter at the county and state level across the contiguous US (2006 to 2020) by integrating climate projections, climate-wildfire models, wildfire smoke models, and emission and health impact modeling. Climate change contributed to approximately 15,000 wildfire particulate matter deaths over 15 years with interannual variability ranging from 130 (95% confidence interval: 64, 190) to 5100 (95% confidence interval: 2500, 7500) deaths and a cumulative economic burden of $160 billion. Approximately 34% of the additional deaths attributable to climate change occurred in 2020, costing $58 billion. The economic burden was highest in California, Oregon, and Washington. We suggest that absent abrupt changes in climate trajectories, land management, and population, the indirect impacts of climate change on human-health through wildfire smoke will escalate.}, }
@article {pmid40321115, year = {2025}, author = {Wohlgemuth, T and Gessler, A}, title = {Consequences of the Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for Europe's Forests Would be More Severe Than Those of a 'Normal' Climate Change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {5}, pages = {e70201}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.70201}, pmid = {40321115}, issn = {1365-2486}, }
@article {pmid40319782, year = {2025}, author = {Osawa, T and Sakurai, G and Wakai, A}, title = {Developing national-scale basic guideline on flood-adaptation strategies under climate change using probabilistic and deterministic factors.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {282}, number = {}, pages = {123723}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2025.123723}, pmid = {40319782}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {As climate adaptation strategies against floods, implementing structural measures in damage-prone areas, supplemented by nonstructural measures (e.g., ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR)), is a viable approach. However, under climate change, predicting damage-prone areas is challenging, hindering the development of effective adaptation strategies. The increase in floods under climate change can be broadly attributed to probabilistic, triggerring hazards, and deterministic, inducing vulnerability factors. Therefore, quantification for levels of probabilistic and deterministic factors may establish adaptation strategies such as prioritize areas where structural measures should be implemented. Herein, we establish basic guideline for developing adaptation strategies against floods, considering probabilistic and deterministic factors simultaneously. We investigated all the municipalities in Japan and modeled flood occurrence from 2010 to 2019 based on government statistics, using the rainfall indicator as a probabilistic factors and terrain factor, which considers land use as a deterministic factor to decide appropriate indicators. Thereafter, we quantified the increase and decrease in rainfall indicator as probabilistic factor. Additionally, we used terrain factor, which considers current land use as a deterministic factor. We implemented nonhierarchical clustering using probabilistic and deterministic factors and classified 1795 municipalities in Japan into six clusters. The findings confirm the feasibility of developing specific adaptation strategies based on the clusters, such as strengthening the installation of artificial structures in areas belonging to the cluster in which floods expectedly increase and enhancing measures in clusters that remain unchanged based on flood histories.}, }
@article {pmid40319697, year = {2025}, author = {Opoku Mensah, S and Osei-Acheampong, B and Jacobs, B and Cunningham, R and Akoto, AB}, title = {Smallholder farmers' climate change adaptation in Ghana: A systematic literature review and future directions.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {384}, number = {}, pages = {125598}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125598}, pmid = {40319697}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Efforts to promote adaptation among smallholder farmers in Ghana have yielded a substantial body of research. Despite the growing body of research on climate adaptation in Ghana, existing studies remain fragmented, lacking a comprehensive synthesis of smallholder farmers' adaptation strategies and barriers. This study makes a novel contribution by providing the first agroecology-specific synthesis of climate change adaptation strategies among Ghanaian smallholder farmers. By disaggregating findings across six ecological zones, it reveals context-specific patterns and barriers, offering an evidence base for locally tailored and transformative adaptation planning within Ghana's agricultural sector. A systematic literature review was performed to assess Ghanaian smallholder farmers' adaptation strategies and identify any existing gaps for future research. From the 497 records reviewed, we identified 61 adaptation strategies employed by smallholder farmers. These strategies were organised into two categories: on-farm strategies-agricultural intensification and extensification-and off-farm strategies-livelihood diversification and migration. Additionally, several significant gaps were identified, including limited research on the effectiveness of adaptation strategies, the role of institutions in enhancing adaptive capacity, and how different livelihood capitals are mobilized, transformed, and combined to reduce livelihood sensitivity. Further gaps include the lack of integrated vulnerability analyses of crop-livestock farming systems and insufficient multi-scale research to examine how climatic and non-climatic stressors vary and interact across scales to exacerbate the vulnerability of farming households. Our findings emphasise the need for all stakeholders to increase investment in contemporary research and sustainable development initiatives to foster transformational adaptation in Ghana's agricultural sector.}, }
@article {pmid40319692, year = {2025}, author = {Bai, Q and Wang, T and Han, Q and Li, X}, title = {Vegetation dynamics induced by climate change and human activities: Implications for coastal wetland restoration.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {384}, number = {}, pages = {125594}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125594}, pmid = {40319692}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Coastal wetlands are valuable ecosystems that have been gravely threatened by climate change and human activities. Understanding vegetation dynamics and relevant driving mechanisms is important for the management and restoration of coastal wetlands. Here, based on Landsat data and field surveys, the spatiotemporal variations in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were analyzed for the Beidagang Wetland Nature Reserve in northern China to understand the vegetation response to climate change during periods with different human impacts (i.e., low-disturbance, high-disturbance, and recovery stages). The results showed that the average growing-season NDVI (NDVIgs) over the area exhibited a significant decreasing trend from 1984 to 2023 at -0.0025 a[-1] (p < 0.001), even during the recovery stage (2014-2023); however, NDVIgs across the area revealed varying trends due to the interactive impacts of climate change and human activities. Specifically, NDVIgs showed significant increasing trends in less human disturbed areas due to rising temperature (T); whereas, this increasing trend was greatly weakened in human disturbed areas. During the recovery stage, the legacy impact of human activities, particularly the excavation of aquaculture ponds in the high-disturbance stage, persistently prohibited vegetation recovery; moreover, the increase in open water area due to ecological water replenishment also contributing to the declining NDVIgs. By comparison, appropriate restoration measures (e.g., constructing embankments and connecting drainage ditches) aided vegetation recovery during the same stage. This study demonstrates the interactive impacts of climate change and human activities on coastal wetland vegetation dynamics, which provides an important perspective for improving restoration efforts in coastal wetlands.}, }
@article {pmid40319684, year = {2025}, author = {Albaladejo-García, JA and Martínez-García, V and Martínez-Paz, JM and Alcon, F}, title = {Gaining insight into best management practices for climate change impact abatement on agroecosystem services and disservices.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {384}, number = {}, pages = {125629}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125629}, pmid = {40319684}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Given agriculture's direct dependence on nature, the climate change effects on agroecosystems may reduce (in quantity and/or quality) agroecosystem services and increase agroecosystem disservices. To achieve a transition pathway for sustainable intensification, best management practices (BMPs) should be considered. These practices may be even more necessary in intensified irrigated agroecosystems, especially in water-scarce areas such as the semi-arid Mediterranean region. There is a knowledge gap in understanding the role of BMPs for climate change impact abatement in these agroecosystems. In this context, the aim of this paper is to characterize the BMPs for climate change in semi-arid Mediterranean intensified irrigated agroecosystems, based on the analysis of agroecosystem services and disservices of six BMPs. A set of representative indicators of the agroecosystem services and disservices have been selected and quantified by using data from data statistics, interviews with farmers, specialized literature, geographic information systems and life cycle analysis. In addition, correlation analysis has been carried out to identify synergies and trade-offs between services and disservices for each BMPs. Results show that the adoption of BMPs for climate change impact abatement would enhance the provision of agroecosystem services. Specifically, the establishment of perimeter hedgerows or the application of biological control practices would improve biodiversity, whereas crop diversification would improve recreation services. The adoption of BMPs would also serve to reduce the provision of agroecosystem disservices, such as the use of organic fertilization to mitigate eutrophication and the use of regulated deficit irrigation to reduce irrigation water use. The adoption of a specific BMP that is expected to benefit one agroecosystem service may not have the same effect on the provision of another type of service or disservice, and vice versa. These results enable decision-makers in semi-arid Mediterranean irrigated agriculture to develop agri-environmental policies in response to climate change and to anticipate the expected benefits and burdens on their farms.}, }
@article {pmid40319609, year = {2025}, author = {Zhou, C and Liu, D and Keesing, J and Masqué, P and Yuan, Z}, title = {Distinguishing impacts of climate change and human activities on phytoplankton communities in remote coastal waters: A paleoecological perspective.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {217}, number = {}, pages = {118057}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118057}, pmid = {40319609}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {Distinguishing between climatic and anthropogenic influences to accurately assess their respective impacts on coastal phytoplankton dynamics remains a complex challenge. Northwestern Australia (NWA), largely free from direct human disturbances, presents a unique natural laboratory for disentangling these factors. This study reconstructs phytoplankton community dynamics over the past century by analyzing sedimentary diatoms and silicoflagellates from sediment cores in Roebuck Bay, which experiences mild eutrophication, and Cygnet Bay, which remains relatively pristine. Total nitrogen (TN) and stable nitrogen isotopes (δ[15]N) were employed as proxies to trace anthropogenic nutrient inputs. Results suggest that shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and variability in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) contributed to increased phytoplankton biomass and a rise in silicoflagellate dominance during 1950-1970 and after 2000. Meanwhile, anthropogenic nutrient enrichment in Roebuck Bay, evident from elevated TN and δ[15]N levels after 1967, correlated with increased Shannon Diversity Index and a shift in community structure, favoring planktonic over benthic species. These findings highlight the distinct interconnected roles of climatic variability and human activities in shaping the NWA ecosystem, underscoring the need for continued monitoring and research.}, }
@article {pmid40318619, year = {2025}, author = {Inkoom, EW and Abubakari, FV and Brown, F and Odamtten, FT}, title = {Modelling climate change awareness heterogeneity among smallholder cereal crop farmers in the semi-arid region of Ghana: A latent class regression approach.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {384}, number = {}, pages = {125595}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125595}, pmid = {40318619}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change awareness, characterised as experiential knowledge among food crop farmers, is a fundamental factor influencing their climate-smart adaptation decisions and behaviours. A critical issue in this context is the unobserved heterogeneity in awareness levels, resulting in varying degrees of climate resilience among these farmers. Consequently, understanding the heterogeneity in awareness and the factors that influence it is essential for informing effective climate response policies. To investigate this issue, we utilized a latent class regression model to examine the unobserved heterogeneity in climate change awareness among cereal crop farmers and to identify the key determinants of this variation. Data were collected through a multistage sampling procedure from 300 smallholder cereal crop farmers in the Bolgatanga Municipality of the Upper East Region of Ghana. The model identified three distinct latent classes of awareness: low awareness (33 %), moderate awareness (27 %), and strong awareness (40 %), thus highlighting significant heterogeneity in awareness levels among farmers. The analysis revealed that factors such as sex, age, years of education, farmer association membership, years of farming experience, regular access to extension training and information on climate-related actions and spatial location landmark were significant predictors of climate change awareness heterogeneity among farmers. The results further demonstrated that climate change variability awareness trend as reported by farmers corroborated historical evidence of climate change in the study area. Consequently, policymakers and stakeholders in northern Ghana must consider these variations and their determinants when formulating and implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40315652, year = {2025}, author = {Balcilar, M and Özkan, O and Usman, O and Akadırı, SS and Zambrano-Monserrate, MA}, title = {A global shift: How modern technologies are powering the energy transition in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {384}, number = {}, pages = {125610}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125610}, pmid = {40315652}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Decarbonizing energy systems and mitigating climate risks necessitate a transition to modern technologies, which foster advancements in the financial, transportation, communication, and manufacturing sectors. This research examines the influence of modern technologies in contemporary financial, communication, transportation, and manufacturing systems on global energy transition within the framework of concerns about climate change. The analysis utilizes daily data from June 16, 2017 to July 1, 2024. The empirical findings derived from the rolling window quantile correlation (RWQC), partial rolling window quantile correlation (PRWQC), and Quantile DCC-GARCH methodologies reveal the following: (i) modern technologies in financial, communication, transportation, and manufacturing systems exhibit a positive correlation with global energy transition; (ii) the strength of the positive correlation between modern technologies in financial, communication, transportation, and manufacturing systems and the global energy transition varies across quantiles and over time; (iii) excluding the influence of climate change concerns diminishes the correlation between modern technologies in financial, communication, transportation, and manufacturing systems and the global energy transition, underscoring the pivotal role of environmental awareness in achieving climate-related objectives; and (iv) the Quantile DCC-GARCH model reaffirms the positive correlation between modern technologies in financial, communication, transportation, and manufacturing systems and the global energy transition. Based on these insights, climate policy measures-such as promoting clean energy technologies, green financing, energy efficiency, and other integrative strategies-should be prioritized to facilitate a sustainable global energy transition.}, }
@article {pmid40312058, year = {2025}, author = {Limb, M}, title = {Climate change: UK is unprepared for rising deaths and health disruption, report warns.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {389}, number = {}, pages = {r873}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.r873}, pmid = {40312058}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid40311935, year = {2025}, author = {Smyth, PP and O'Dowd, CD}, title = {Climate Change Induced Atmospheric Iodine Enrichment - A Paradoxically Beneficial Contribution.}, journal = {Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {100437}, doi = {10.1016/j.advnut.2025.100437}, pmid = {40311935}, issn = {2156-5376}, }
@article {pmid40311359, year = {2025}, author = {Leitão, F and Cánovas, F}, title = {Predicting climate change impacts on marine fisheries, biodiversity and economy in the Canary/Iberia current upwelling system.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {384}, number = {}, pages = {125537}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125537}, pmid = {40311359}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The vulnerability of fisheries to climate change (CC) is driven by exposure factors that can affect species and fisheries differently at regional level. Ecological and socioeconomic consequences of climate change were assessed by evaluating a set of species (N = 53), caught by Portuguese fleet, that are likely to be affected by changes in oceanographical conditions (climatic scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) by the middle of this century (2041-2060). A novel approach was used which consist in estimate species habitat vulnerability index to CC by combining species habitat suitability with species sensitivity (life history ecological-biological traits), that was considered the weighting score for habitat suitability estimations by niche ecological models. Exploited species denote little specialization and have a large marginalization range with results showing that shifts in environmental variables, expected in the future, did not alter general distribution patterns of study species. Specialization was associated with sea surface temperature while marginality to depth, indicating that species can find refuges at higher depths without losing distribution range. Predicted changes in habitat suitability values across all species varied between a decrease of 11 % and an increase of 7 %, with species mean shifts around ±4 %. Catch composition by species (similarity >95 % regardless scenario/area), functional groups (similarity >97 % regardless scenario/area), trophic level structure (similarity >98 % regardless scenario/area) and marine biodiversity (marine trophic index ∼ 3.35 regardless scenario/area) projected for the middle of this century, showed similarities to the present scenario. Economic losses estimated for the middle of this century correspond to a maximum value of 3 % in catch and 2.3 % economically. Fisheries revenue could not be jeopardized due to CC until the middle of the century. Under results found maintaining sustainable fishing management strategies is the best way to mitigate CC effects.}, }
@article {pmid40311340, year = {2025}, author = {Luo, D and Guo, L and Sun, X and Xie, Q and Wang, H and Tang, X and Liu, Z and Huang, N and Zeng, C and Wu, Y}, title = {Climate change and overfishing combine to drive the population decline of the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins in the Pearl River Estuary from the Northern South China Sea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {980}, number = {}, pages = {179557}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179557}, pmid = {40311340}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Overfishing and climate change pose significant threats to cetacean populations, yet the specific impacts on individual species, particularly cetaceans inhabiting complex coastal areas, are not well understood due to limited data. This study utilizes five years of field survey data, alongside fishery activity and climate change scenarios, to assess the population dynamics of the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin in the Pearl River Estuary from the Northern South China Sea. Our results indicate a dramatic and ongoing decline in the humpback dolphin population over recent decades, decreasing from over 1000 to 742 individuals. The individual impact of climate change on biomass is moderate, showing changes between -1.3 % and + 11.97 %. Projected climate change scenarios reveal further population reductions, exacerbated by increasing fishing pressures, with declines ranging from 6.17 % to 20.39 %. Notably, our simulations highlight the detrimental effects of unrestrained socioeconomic development on humpback dolphins' viability and population. The dolphins exhibit adaptive dietary strategies to maintain energy levels in changing ecosystems; however, total energy intake still declines across all age classes, requiring increased foraging efforts. This may lead to decreased group sizes, altered distribution patterns, and reduced reproductive success, further increasing their vulnerability to additional stressors. The complex interplay between human activities and environmental changes in marine ecosystems, which significantly impacts cetaceans, provides crucial insights for developing integrated management strategies to safeguard the biodiversity and resilience of coastal marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid40311081, year = {2025}, author = {Croft, DP and Lee, A and Nordgren, TM and Jackson, CL and Bayram, H and Balmes, JR and Nassikas, N and Ewart, G and Rice, MB and Benmarhnia, T and Celedón, JC and Holm, SM and Kerr, GH and Anenberg, S and Méndez-Lázaro, P and Ambri, P and Goobie, GC and Rebuli, ME and Wilson, S and Annesi-Maesano, I and Balakrishnan, K and Cromar, K and Jaspers, I and Harkema, JR and Kapil, V and Lai, P and Maccarone, J and Noël, A and Paulin, LM and Pinkerton, KE and Teherani, A and Ahn, E and Thurston, G and Thakur, N}, title = {Climate Change and Respiratory Health: Opportunities to Contribute to Environmental Justice: An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {631-650}, doi = {10.1513/AnnalsATS.202502-219ST}, pmid = {40311081}, issn = {2325-6621}, support = {//Intramural Program at the NIH/United States ; Z1AES103325-01/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; K23 ES032459/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES001247/GF/NIH HHS/United States ; //NIH/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; *Environmental Justice ; United States ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Societies, Medical ; }, abstract = {Adverse environmental exposures worsened by our changing climate threaten respiratory health and exacerbate existing social inequities that further undermine environmental justice (EJ). EJ is the capacity of all people, regardless of sociodemographic characteristics, to minimize harmful exposures and live a healthy life. EJ is achieved through the development, implementation, and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, and policies. In 2023, an American Thoracic Society workshop convened a group of 39 clinicians, researchers, community advocates, research program administrators, and health policy experts to characterize the respiratory health threats and EJ concerns arising from climate change. The workshop explored four main climate areas through a socioecological and EJ perspective: 1) respiratory health risks, 2) respiratory health impacts in low- and middle-income countries, 3) climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, and 4) priority research infrastructure needs. The workshop committee concluded that climate change can directly and indirectly impair respiratory health and that persistently excluded or marginalized communities (including those in low- and middle-income countries) are disproportionately impacted. These disproportionately impacted communities also lack hazard monitoring and resources to evaluate and advocate for mitigation of adverse environmental exposures. Future respiratory health research must inform mitigation strategies to reduce climate-related emissions from industry to net zero. Researchers, communities, and policymakers require training and support to meaningfully engage with systems-thinking research as well as policy solutions focused on mitigating and adapting to climate change. Finally, the workshop committee recommends a rapid transition away from fossil fuel dependence to a world that provides an equitable allocation of clean transportation options and renewable sources of energy production.}, }
@article {pmid40310919, year = {2025}, author = {Anderson, JT and DeMarche, ML and Denney, DA and Breckheimer, I and Santangelo, J and Wadgymar, SM}, title = {Adaptation and gene flow are insufficient to rescue a montane plant under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {388}, number = {6746}, pages = {525-531}, doi = {10.1126/science.adr1010}, pmid = {40310919}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Altitude ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Gene Flow ; Genetic Variation ; Population Dynamics ; *Arabis/genetics/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change increasingly drives local population dynamics, shifts geographic distributions, and threatens persistence. Gene flow and rapid adaptation could rescue declining populations yet are seldom integrated into forecasts. We modeled eco-evolutionary dynamics under preindustrial, contemporary, and projected climates using up to 9 years of fitness data from 102,272 transplants (115 source populations) of Boechera stricta in five common gardens. Climate change endangers locally adapted populations and reduces genotypic variation in long-term population growth rate, suggesting limited adaptive potential. Upslope migration could stabilize high-elevation populations and preserve low-elevation ecotypes, but unassisted gene flow modeled with genomic data is too spatially restricted. Species distribution models failed to capture current dynamics and likely overestimate persistence under intermediate emissions scenarios, highlighting the importance of modeling evolutionary processes.}, }
@article {pmid40310699, year = {2025}, author = {Islam, J and Frentiu, FD and Devine, GJ and Bambrick, H and Hu, W}, title = {A State-of-the-Science Review of Long-term Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on Dengue Transmission Risk.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1289/EHP14463}, pmid = {40310699}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is predicted to profoundly impact dengue transmission risk, yet a thorough review of evidence is necessary to refine understanding of climate scenarios, projection periods, spatial resolutions, and modelling approaches.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We conducted a State-of-the-Science review to comprehensively understand long-term dengue risk predictions under climate change, identify research gaps, and provide evidence-based guidelines for future studies.<br><br>METHODS: We searched three medical databases (PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science) up to December 5, 2024, to extract relevant modelling studies. A priori search strategy, predefined eligibility criteria, and systematic data extraction procedures were implemented to identify and evaluate studies.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 5,035 studies retrieved, 57 met inclusion criteria. Prediction for dengue risk ranged from 1950-2115, and 52.63% (n = 30) of all studies used Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Specifically, RCP 8.5 (34.94%, n = 29), Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2 (32.35%, n = 11), and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1 (58.33%, n = 7) were utilized the most among all the RCPs, SSPs, and SRES climate change scenarios. Most studies (57.89%, n = 33) used only climatic variables for the prediction, and 21.05% (n = 12) of studies employed fine spatial resolution (&#x2248; 1 km) for the climate data. We identified correlative approach was used mostly across the studies for modelling the future risk (61.40%, n = 35). Among mechanistic models, 35% (n = 7) lacked outcome validation, and 75% (n = 15) did not report model evaluation metrics.<br><br>DISCUSSION: We identified the urgent need to strengthen dengue databases, use finer spatial resolutions to integrate big data, and incorporate potential socio-environmental factors such as human movement, vegetation, microclimate, and vector control efficacy in modelling. Utilizing appropriate spatiotemporal models and validation techniques will be crucial for developing functional climate-driven early warning systems for dengue fever. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14463.}, }
@article {pmid40308687, year = {2025}, author = {Allipour Birgani, R and Takian, A and Kianirad, A and Pouraram, H and Djazayeri, A}, title = {Climate Change and Food Security: A Framework for Agenda Setting and Policy Analysis in Iran.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {70}, number = {}, pages = {1608116}, pmid = {40308687}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {Iran ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Policy Making ; *Food Security ; Qualitative Research ; *Health Policy ; Interviews as Topic ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This study identifies the key factors contributing to Food Security (FS) in the context of Climate change (CC), aiming to foster agenda setting for FS in Iran.<br><br>METHODS: This is a qualitative study. We interviewed 32 relevant stakeholders from various backgrounds. We used a mixed inductive-deductive approach in data analysis, drawing up on an adopted framework comprising of health policy triangle and selected agenda setting framework.<br><br>RESULTS: Our analysis revealed eight constructs, eight themes, and 26 subthemes. The constructs included: common voice, leadership, scientific evidence, economic, multi-sectoral collaboration, advocacy, early warning systems, and supreme decision-making center. The main themes identified were shortcomings in: consensus, high-level political commitment, cooperation, System approach, research, planning, economic resources, and public participation. The international data gathering was limited in this study.<br><br>CONCLUSION: To mitigate the risk of FS in CC condition and push the emerging subject into the government agenda in Iran, we recommend reforms in the eight identified constructs and advocate a combined policy approach including three dimensions: policy integration, coherency, and coordination, through a new model of governance.}, }
@article {pmid40308363, year = {2025}, author = {Chanmany Pastor, R and Roberts, L and Jain, A and Tamares, S}, title = {The Heat Is On: Climate Change Implications for Pregnant Women with Sickle Cell Disease.}, journal = {Women's health reports (New Rochelle, N.Y.)}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {286-292}, pmid = {40308363}, issn = {2688-4844}, abstract = {Sickle cell disease (SCD), a serious, chronic blood disorder is the most common genetic blood disease in the United States affecting 100,000 people and disproportionately affecting the African American population. Pregnancy is particularly risky for people with SCD due to higher risk of developing pregnancy-related complications compared with people without the disease. For African American pregnant women with SCD, the risk of maternal morbidity and mortality is up to 10 times higher. Physiological changes during pregnancy increase the risk of vaso-occlusive episodes (VOEs), acute chest syndrome, venous thromboembolic events, and infections. Dehydration increases risk as it triggers sickling of red blood cells, leading to painful VOEs and further increasing the risk of aforementioned complications. Climate change, observed since the mid-20th century, is evidenced by the increasing trend of global temperature, hurricanes, floods, and heat waves. Climate changes can profoundly impact people with SCD, as elevated temperatures result in increased core body temperatures, blood hyperosmolality, and dehydration. Assisted by a research librarian, a literature search was undertaken of major databases (PubMed, Embase, and Google Scholar), with delimiters of publication between 2019 and 2024 and human subjects, and 477 studies were retrieved. After meticulous screening, 20 relevant articles were analyzed. Evidence linking climate change impact to increased risk for pregnant people with SCD is lacking. Further research is needed to examine the phenomenon and mitigate this unique risk of climate change. SCD clinical guidelines stress the importance of preventing dehydration. Clinicians play a critical role in educating this vulnerable population about risks, including dehydration and exposure to extreme heat.}, }
@article {pmid40308306, year = {2025}, author = {Farag, PF and Alkhalifah, DHM and Ali, SK and Tagyan, AI and Hozzein, WN}, title = {Impact of climate change on the potential global prevalence of Macrophomina phaseolina (Tassi) Goid. under several climatological scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1512294}, pmid = {40308306}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change forms one of the most dangerous problems that disturb the earth today. It not only devastates the environment but also affects the biodiversity of living organisms, including fungi. Macrophomina phaseolina (Tassi) Goid. is one of the most pervasive and destructive soil-borne fungus that threatens food security, so predicting its current and future distribution will aid in following its emergence in new regions and taking precautionary measures to control it.<br><br>METHODS: Throughout this work, there are about 324 records of M. phaseolina were used to model its global prevalence using 19 environmental covariates under several climate change scenarios for analysis. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the spatial distribution of this fungus throughout the world while algorithms of DIVA-GIS were chosen to confirm the predicted model.<br><br>RESULTS: Based on the Jackknife test, minimum temperature of coldest month (bio_6) represented the most effective bioclimatological parameter to fungus distribution with a 52.5% contribution. Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 of global climate model (GCM) code MG, were used to forecast the global spreading of the fungus in 2050 and 2070. The area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) were assigned to evaluate the resulted models with values equal to 0.902 &#xb1; 0.009 and 0.8, respectively. These values indicated a satisfactory significant correlation between the models and the ecology of the fungus. Two-dimensional niche analysis illustrated that the fungus could adapt to a wide range of temperatures (9 &#xb0;C to 28 &#xb0;C), and its annual rainfall ranges from 0&#xa0;mm to 2000&#xa0;mm. In the future, Africa will become the low habitat suitability for the fungus while Europe will become a good place for its distribution.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for predicting the future distribution of M. phaseolina under changing climate, but the results need further intensive evaluation including more ecological parameters other than bioclimatological data.}, }
@article {pmid40308301, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, R and Guo, X and Song, Y and Cai, Y and Wu, Y and Wang, M}, title = {Effects of ultraviolet radiation as a climate variable on the geographic distribution of Oryza sativa under climate change based on Biomod2.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1552770}, pmid = {40308301}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Oryza sativa is one of the most important cereal crops globally.<br><br>METHODS: The aim of this study was to map areas suitable for the growth and conservation of O. sativa under current and future climatic conditions, and to observe the effects of UV variables on the distribution area of O. sativa.<br><br>RESULTS: Based on species distribution records, we used the Biomod2 platform to combine climate data, future shared socioeconomic pathways, and elevation data. The ensemble model (EM) was constructed by screening multiple species distribution models (SDMs), including RF, GBM, ANN, and MARS. The ROC value of the joint model is greater than 0.95, indicating that the model has high reliability and accuracy. Mean annual temperature (bio01), temperature seasonality (bio04), minimum temperature in the coldest month (bio06), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), human footprint and human activity impact index (hfv2geo1) and annual average ultraviolet radiation (uvb1annualmeanuv.b) were the most important environmental variables affecting the suitable distribution area of O.&#xa0;sativa. Under the current climate conditions, the suitable habitats of O. sativa are mainly distributed in the south of the Yangtze River. In the future climate scenario, the total suitable habitat area of O. sativa tended to decrease, but the suitable distribution area under the influence of UV was larger than that without UV.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate change will significantly affect the potential distribution of O. sativa in China and increase its extinction risk. Therefore, it is necessary to provide a reference for the conservation, management, introduction and cultivation of food crops in China.}, }
@article {pmid40307947, year = {2025}, author = {Raz, R and Negev, M and Hauzer, M and Miller, E and Paltiel, O and Kissinger, M}, title = {Environmental responsibility in the Israeli health system in the era of climate change: a required paradigm shift.}, journal = {Israel journal of health policy research}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {19}, pmid = {40307947}, issn = {2045-4015}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Israel ; *Delivery of Health Care/trends ; Greenhouse Gases ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Environmental management in the Israeli health system is driven primarily by safety regulations. Such regulations aim to reduce hazardous exposures to employees, patients, and visitors, as well as some specific aspects of broader environmental toxicity to humans and nature. Most environmental precautions in the system target traditional exposures and do not specifically consider the health system's own impact on climate change. This article aims to justify incorporating climate change mitigation actions into short- and long-term plans in Israeli health organizations and present a schematic strategic roadmap to do so.<br><br>MAIN BODY: Climate change poses many threats to global health, including risks from severe weather events, changes in vector-borne diseases, increased hazardous air pollutants, food and water shortages, and adverse effects on reproductive health. The most effective effort in climate change mitigation is reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. Ignoring the health sector's emissions contradicts the ancient medical principle: first, do no harm (primum non-nocere). Furthermore, many climate mitigation methods introduce additional health co-benefits. Special attention and medical considerations are needed to safely reduce emissions from the health sector. This article reviews healthcare's most common emission sources, including energy consumption, transportation, food, waste, supplies, and the supply chain. An organizational carbon management strategy should include recognizing the problem and committing to action, estimating the organizational carbon footprint, developing and prioritizing alternative interventions, and developing a carbon management plan with measurable short- and intermediate-term goals.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate mitigation in the health sector is encompassed by the moral obligation of the Israeli healthcare system to do no harm. Performance measures to support GHG emission reductions should be adopted into the existing, successful Israeli programs of quality measures in medicine, both in the community and hospitals. In addition, Israel academic institutions for health and medical education should incorporate sustainable health into their curricula for students of health professions and as part of continuous medical education. Such policy actions will contribute to a healthy health system that supports climate change mitigation while providing health co-benefits to the Israeli population.}, }
@article {pmid40307584, year = {2025}, author = {Pogačar, T and Kuk, R and Kokot, K and Turnšek, M}, title = {Identifying the tourism sector's exposure to climate change utilizing two different climate datasets: the case of three climatically diverse locations in Slovenia.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40307584}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {V7-2128//Javna Agencija za Raziskovalno Dejavnost RS/ ; V7-2128//Ministrstvo za Gospodarski Razvoj in Tehnologijo/ ; }, abstract = {This study investigates the exposure of Slovenia's tourism industry to climate change by analyzing climate data from two sources: the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) and the Slovenian Environment Agency (ARSO). Three distinct climate zones in Slovenia, namely submediterranean, subcontinental and moderate climate of the hilly region are examined. Using climate indices such as CIT: 3S and HCI: Urban, the research assesses historical trends and future projections of climate suitability for various tourism activities. Key climate variables, including hot days, heavy precipitation, and snow cover, are analyzed to improve the understanding of climate exposure. The submediterranean region may experience extended tourist seasons but face challenges from heatwaves and water scarcity. The subalpine region, dependent on winter tourism, is projected to experience reduced snow cover and potential challenges for ski resorts. The subcontinental region could benefit from extended seasons for outdoor activities but may also face heat stress and extreme weather events. The study shows that climate indicators can offer valuable insights, but can also oversimplify complex climate processes. Discrepancies between CDS and ARSO data highlight potential biases, emphasizing the need for caution in interpreting absolute values. Climate projections inherently involve uncertainties, particularly for snow indicators. Ensemble modeling and careful consideration of uncertainties are essential for assessing future impacts. By addressing these considerations, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of climate change's implications for Slovenia's tourism sector and offers valuable guidance for adaptation planning.}, }
@article {pmid40305567, year = {2025}, author = {, }, title = {Correction: On people's perceptions of climate change and its impacts in a hotspot of global warming.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {e0323273}, pmid = {40305567}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0317786.].}, }
@article {pmid40305518, year = {2025}, author = {Plasman, M and Díaz de la Vega-Pérez, AH and McCue, MD and Tepos-Ramírez, M and Reynoso, VH}, title = {The ultimate challenge to climate change: Endurance of a thermophilic reptile to the harsh temperatures on an extremely hot island.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {e0320796}, pmid = {40305518}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Islands ; Body Temperature/physiology ; *Iguanas/physiology ; *Hot Temperature ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Herbivorous ectotherms are especially vulnerable to climate change and those inhabiting hot environments may already live near their maximum physiological limits. Insular species are particularly susceptible to changing thermal conditions because they cannot relocate. This proves a very poor prognostic for the survival of herbivorous reptiles living on islands. The piebald chuckwalla, Sauromalus varius, is a large iguana endemic to San Esteban Island, located in the Gulf of California, encompassed by the Sonoran Desert, one of the hottest areas on earth. We investigated the thermal ecology of this iguana during the hottest month of the year coinciding with the fruiting of its most important food source, the giant cardon. We measured field body temperature (Tbfield), voluntary maximum body temperature, the onset of thermal stress responses, and critical maximum temperature, and compared these with the thermal landscape. We found that Tbfield was 37.2±1.3°C (average±SD) and iguanas sought shade at a body temperature of 39.2±1.4°C. Iguanas started panting at 42.4±2.0°C, a cooling strategy at the expense of precious body water, and often defecated, at 43.2±1.9°C, with concomitant loss of water. We determined that these iguanas can maintain activity at body temperatures of 47.2±2.2°C, however they use various mechanical and behavioral mechanism to avoid these extremes. On the island, ground temperatures reached up to 62.4°C. Shade of plants can provide thermal shelter during part of the day. However, even in some caves temperatures could reach 41.5°C and under rocks 48.0°C, which is higher than these animals voluntarily tolerate. Our results indicated that although these chuckwallas can support high temperatures, their strategy incurs substantial water loss, a resource only available for the iguana through cacti consumption. Environmental temperature that increases with climate change will likely lead to an ever-increasing use of shelters, perhaps even resulting in complete inactivity during the cacti fruiting period.}, }
@article {pmid40305517, year = {2025}, author = {Asiamah, N and Ofosu, BO and Effah-Baafi, YJ and Awuviry-Newton, K and Nkansah, J and Saunders, B}, title = {Policies for healthy ageing in response to climate change: Protocol of a systematic review.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {e0323069}, pmid = {40305517}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Healthy Aging ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; *Aging ; Aged ; *Health Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global phenomenon affecting every segment of the population. Yet, older adults are more vulnerable to climate change events (e.g., floods, heatwaves, landslides) owing to their functional limitations. Understandably, stakeholders have called for healthy ageing policies that enable older adults and individuals in the general population to maintain wellbeing despite climate change. This review aims to describe healthy ageing policies adopted or recommended in response to climate change. Eight databases (i.e., CINAHL, Cochrane library, ProQuest, PsycINFO, Google Scholar, Web of Science, Scopus, and MEDLINE) will be searched to identify relevant studies. Materials published anywhere in English to date will be included in the review. The Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) or Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) checklist will be employed to assess the quality of studies. A narrative synthesis will be adopted to present the results. This review will highlight groups targeted with healthy ageing policies and describe policies in use or recommended. It will proffer implications for practice, research, and sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid40304931, year = {2025}, author = {Bekele, BK and Uwishema, O and Bisetegn, LD and Moubarak, A and Charline, M and Sibomana, P and Onyeaka, CVP}, title = {Cholera in Africa: A Climate Change Crisis.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and global health}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {68}, pmid = {40304931}, issn = {2210-6014}, mesh = {Humans ; *Cholera/epidemiology/transmission ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Outbreaks/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Cholera, an acute diarrheal infection caused by Vibrio cholerae, remains a significant public health concern globally, with 1.4-4.0 million cases and 21,000-143,000 deaths annually. While the disease is endemic in 47 less-developed countries across Africa and Asia, the African continent has been particularly affected, with 19 of 29 countries reporting cases in 2023 being from Africa.<br><br>AIM: To explore the trend of cholera outbreaks in Africa and analyze how climate change has contributed to the spread of the disease in the continent.<br><br>METHODS: A review of current cholera outbreaks in Africa, with particular focus on Sudan and Ethiopia as case studies, examining the relationship between climatic factors and cholera transmission.<br><br>RESULTS: Recent outbreaks in Sudan (declared September 26, 2023) resulted in 5,414 suspected cases and 170 deaths (case fatality rate 3.1%) across nine states as of December 5, 2023. In Ethiopia's Somali region, 772 confirmed cases and 23 deaths were reported within two weeks, with approximately 80% of cases affecting children. Climate factors significantly influence cholera transmission: a 1&#xa0;&#xb0;C temperature rise doubled cholera cases in Zanzibar. Both drought conditions, which increase Vibrio cholerae concentration in groundwater, and heavy rainfall periods, which lead to flooding and breakdown of sanitary conditions, contribute to outbreak risks.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change impacts cholera transmission through rainfall patterns, temperature variations, and extreme weather events. Management recommendations include implementing accurate weather surveillance systems, strategic vaccination programs, flood-proof water supply infrastructure, and community engagement protocols. These interventions should be integrated while considering the growing influence of climate change on disease patterns.<br><br>CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.}, }
@article {pmid40303909, year = {2025}, author = {Mweya, CN and Mwanyonga, SP and Ndelwa, LA and Massaro, J}, title = {Community Knowledge About Climate Change and Industrialization Impacts on Recurrence of Dengue Epidemics in Selected Districts in Tanzania: A Cross-Sectional Study.}, journal = {Health science reports}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {e70745}, pmid = {40303909}, issn = {2398-8835}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Dengue fever epidemics pose an increasing public health threat in Tanzania. Climate change and industrialization may influence outbreaks, while community knowledge plays a vital role in prevention. This study examined public knowledge about environmental and anthropogenic impacts on dengue transmission.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted from April to June 2022 with 482 participants from Bahi, Kyela, and Ngorongoro districts. A validated questionnaire assessed demographic characteristics and knowledge about dengue epidemiology related to climate and industrialization. Multinomial logistic regression and &#x3c7; [2] tests examined associations between variables.<br><br>RESULTS: Over half of the participants (52.9%) were male, and most were aged 26-35 (33.2%). Only 21% demonstrated a good understanding of industrialization's health impacts, while 19% knew the climate change linkage with dengue. Significant knowledge gaps exist regarding climate change and industrialization impacts linked to recurrent epidemics (44.2% poor knowledge). Age over 35 (AOR 1.73, 95% CI 1.39-2.14), primary education or less (AOR 0.77, 95% CI 0.59-0.99), and unemployment (AOR 0.31, 95% CI 0.23-0.42) were associated with poor knowledge. Gender and occupation significantly predicted climate change knowledge (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Communities in dengue-endemic areas have limited knowledge about climate and anthropogenic drivers of recurring epidemics. Targeted educational interventions can improve understanding and preventative behavior among high-risk demographics.}, }
@article {pmid40303742, year = {2023}, author = {Wijburg, SR and Maas, M and Sprong, H and Gröne, A and van der Schrier, G and Rijks, JM}, title = {Assessing Surveillance of Wildlife Diseases by Determining Mammal Species Vulnerability to Climate Change.}, journal = {Transboundary and emerging diseases}, volume = {2023}, number = {}, pages = {7628262}, pmid = {40303742}, issn = {1865-1682}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Animals, Wild ; *Mammals ; Netherlands/epidemiology ; *Animal Diseases/epidemiology ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/veterinary ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the drivers of wildlife-borne disease emergence, as it can affect species abundance and fitness, host immunocompetence, and interactions with pathogens. To detect emerging wildlife-borne diseases, countries may implement general wildlife-disease surveillance systems. Such surveillance exists in the Netherlands. However, it is unclear how well it covers host species vulnerable to climate change and consequently disease emergence in these species. Therefore, we performed a trait-based vulnerability assessment (TVA) to quantify species vulnerability to climate change for 59 Dutch terrestrial mammals. Species' vulnerability was estimated based on the magnitude of climatic change within the species' distribution (exposure), the species' potential to persist in situ (sensitivity), and the species' ability to adjust (adaptive capacity). Using these vulnerability categories, we identified priority species at risk for disease emergence due to climate change. Subsequently, we assessed the frequency of occurrence of these priority species compared to other mammal species examined in general wildlife disease surveillance during 2008-2022. We identified 25% of the mammal species to be highly exposed, 24% to be highly sensitive, and 22% to have a low adaptive capacity. The whiskered myotis and the garden dormouse were highly vulnerable (i.e., highly exposed, highly sensitive, and low adaptive capacity), but they are rare in the Netherlands. The Western barbastelle, the pond bat, and the Daubenton's myotis were potential adapters (highly exposed, highly sensitive, and high adaptive capacity). Species vulnerable to climate change were relatively poorly represented in current general surveillance. Our research shows a comprehensive approach that considers both exposures to climate change and ecological factors to assess vulnerability. TVAs, as presented in this study, can easily be adapted to include extra drivers and species, and we would therefore recommend surveillance institutes to consider integrating these types of assessments for evaluating and improving surveillance for wildlife-borne disease emergence.}, }
@article {pmid40303409, year = {2025}, author = {Ghosh, AG and Kim, HL and Khor, SS}, title = {HLA alleles and dengue susceptibility across populations in the era of climate change: a comprehensive review.}, journal = {Frontiers in immunology}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1473475}, pmid = {40303409}, issn = {1664-3224}, mesh = {Humans ; *Dengue/genetics/epidemiology/immunology ; *Genetic Predisposition to Disease ; *Climate Change ; *Alleles ; *HLA Antigens/genetics ; *Dengue Virus/immunology ; }, abstract = {Dengue, a viral infection transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, is an emerging global health threat exacerbated by climate change. Rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns create favourable conditions for vector proliferation and extended transmission periods, increasing the risk of dengue in endemic regions and facilitating its spread to non-endemic areas. Understanding the interplay between critical genetic factors and dengue susceptibility is crucial for developing effective public health strategies. The Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) genes encode proteins essential for an effective immune response against pathogens, and their genetic variations influence susceptibility to severe dengue. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis of HLA alleles associated with dengue infection and dengue severity. We analysed 19 case-control studies on dengue infections in populations worldwide to infer HLA associations with various pathological forms of dengue and to examine differences across different populations. Our findings indicate that HLA-A*02 increases susceptibility to dengue fever (DF), while HLA-A*03 increases the risk of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF), with these increased susceptibilities primarily observed in Southeast Asian populations. Additionally, HLA-A*24 is associated with DHF and all symptomatic dengue infections (DEN), contributing to dengue risk in both Southeast Asia and the Caribbean. Conversely, HLA-A*33 and HLA-B*44 show a protective effect against DHF but show significant regional heterogeneity, highlighting divergent, population-specific susceptibility profiles. This study underscores the importance of population-specific genetic risk assessments for dengue infection and emphasizes the need for targeted medical interventions and improved predictive models to mitigate dengue's impact, especially as climate change accelerates disease spread.}, }
@article {pmid40302213, year = {2025}, author = {Bai, H and Xiao, D and Liu, L and Tao, F and Liu, F and Tang, J}, title = {Impacts of future climate change and management practices to yield, eco-efficiency and global warming potential for rice-wheat rotation system.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.14322}, pmid = {40302213}, issn = {1097-0010}, support = {D2023302001//Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province/ ; D2022205010//Hebei Provincial Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars/ ; 25101//Technology Program of Hebei Academy of Sciences/ ; 42377483//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The rice-wheat rotation system (RWRS) is a predominant cropping pattern in mid-eastern China, playing a crucial role in ensuring food security. However, its intensive water and fertilizer inputs contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With global climate warming, RWRS confronts the dual imperative of simultaneously enhancing productivity and eco-efficiency while significantly curtailing GHG emissions.<br><br>RESULTS: Future warming climate under most global climate models (GCMs) had adverse impacts on yield, water-use efficiency (WUE), nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) and GHG intensity (GHGI) of RWRS in the central and southern regions of mid-eastern China. Compared to traditional management (TM) with high water and nitrogen inputs, optimized water and nitrogen management (OM) - utilizing intermittent irrigation and a nitrogen application rate of 390&#x2009;kg&#x2009;ha[-1] - can significantly enhance WUE and NUE while reducing GHGI, without compromising yield. Moreover, no tillage, as a conservation tillage (CT) practice could effectively mitigate the negative impacts of future climate change. The combination of OM and CT (OM&#x2009;+&#x2009;CT) can improve yield and eco-efficiency while reducing global warming potential. For RWRS with OM&#x2009;+&#x2009;CT, GHGI decreased by 45.6-60.9% under future climate scenarios compared to TM.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: By using knowledge-based optimum management strategies, environmental risks can be reduced without sacrificing the yield of RWRS yield. This study demonstrates a useful approach with crop modelling to ensure yield for agriculture system at a lower environment cost, which can be adjusted and applied in other farming systems and regions. &#xa9; 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid40300547, year = {2025}, author = {Mei, J and Yong, B and Lyu, Y and Qi, W and Wen, Y and Wang, G and Zhang, J}, title = {Runoff evolution responses to climate change: A case study in the headwater area of Yellow River, China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {384}, number = {}, pages = {125512}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125512}, pmid = {40300547}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The headwater area of the Yellow River (HAYR) plays an important role in runoff generation for the entire Yellow River basin. However, the runoff patterns within this crucial source region have been experiencing significant changes over the past decades. These changes have made pronounced impacts on the inter-annual and even intra-annual distributions of runoff, especially for the unique double flood peaks (DFP; one peak appears in July and another in September). This study comprehensively demonstrated the runoff evolution in HAYR and its future projection under the background of climate change based on multi-source data analysis and hydrologic simulation. First, we used three mainstream precipitation datasets (i.e., CHM_PRE, CMFD, and TPHiPr) to drive the land surface hydrologic model (i.e., VIC) in the large-scale basin with sparse ground observation. Our simulation results show that the CHM_PRE-driven VIC exhibits the best performance in six experimental combinations. Thus, we adopted the simulation mode of CHM_PRE-driven VIC to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff. It was found that climate change was the primary driver for the runoff reduction after the year of 1990 with a contribution of 81.14 %, while human activities only account for 18.86 %. But human activities likely have a larger impact on runoff during those dry periods. Notably, climate change has reduced the peak discharge and shifted the peak time in that, the main peak occurred earlier and the secondary peak appeared later. Subsequently, projections based on future scenarios of Global Climate Models (GCMs) suggest a declining trend in runoff, along with a noticeable periodicity, showing a cycle of approximately 40 years. Finally, the diagnosis of the significance level of flood peaks indicates that the increasing inter-annual variability and the more frequent intra-annual fluctuations will appear in the future runoff changes. This study is expected to enable basin managers to better optimize the water resource allocation and make well-informed practice decisions for the HAYR under global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40300429, year = {2025}, author = {Li, H}, title = {Revolutionizing dynamic microbiome network analysis via idopNetworks: Comment on "Topological change of soil microbiota networks for forest resilience under global warming" by Gong et al.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {53}, number = {}, pages = {303-304}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2025.04.002}, pmid = {40300429}, issn = {1873-1457}, }
@article {pmid40299913, year = {2025}, author = {Belova, A and Silva, RA and Vorndran, DM and Sampson, NR}, title = {Using large language models to learn from recent climate change discourse in public health.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {e0321309}, pmid = {40299913}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Humans ; *Language ; Models, Theoretical ; Large Language Models ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Public health has increasingly recognized the links between climate change and health, emphasizing the need to address related inequities. This is reflected in work led by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the U.S. National Climate Assessment, and leading health-related professional associations, such as the American Public Health Association (APHA). We ask how the focus of climate change-related topics in public health discourse has evolved, and what does this signal about the field's role and capacity to address this global crisis?<br><br>METHODS: We analyzed close to 41,000 abstracts from APHA annual meetings (2017-2023). Using a combination of large language models and expert review, we identified and analyzed over 1,100 abstracts with climate change-related content. We used a fine-tuned OpenAI GPT-3.5 model to detect abstracts with climate change-related content and the Claude 3.0 Sonnet model to categorize these abstracts into 21 themes and 12 health outcome categories.<br><br>RESULTS: Since 2017, the discussion of climate change at APHA has declined both in terms of volume and topic diversity. The impacts of climate change on heat-related illness, stress and mental illness, and vector-borne diseases were the most common topics discussed. Fewer abstracts discussed the role of public health, workforce development, and policy and advocacy, with slightly more attention focused on health communication and education.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Although this is only a snapshot of recent discourse in the field, trends suggest the need to build capacity for climate action. Addressing the climate crisis is not solely an environmental health issue; it is a public health issue. Advocates, policymakers, and scholars know that innovative and intersectoral solutions are critical for effective and equitable climate action. However, within public health, we must work together and jointly contribute to reducing the unequal and extensive burdens associated with our changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid40297604, year = {2025}, author = {Nöth, L and Zander, L}, title = {How Epistemic Beliefs about Climate Change Predict Climate Change Conspiracy Beliefs.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1523143}, pmid = {40297604}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Belief in climate change conspiracy theories (CCCT) can undermine support for measures against climate change. In two studies, we therefore aim to gain a clearer understanding of the factors that contribute to CCCT. A significant factor associated with CCCT is distrust in science, which is also correlated with epistemic beliefs (EBs) (e.g., beliefs are about the nature of knowledge and the process of knowing). EBs influence how individuals respond to knowledge claims, address contradictory evidence, and integrate new information. We hypothesize that EBs are linked to belief in CCCT via distrust in science. To test this hypothesis, we conducted one correlational study and one experimental study (n = 404 and n = 104, both pre-registered). Study 1 found that participants were more likely to endorse climate-related conspiracy beliefs if they viewed climate knowledge as tentative, relied on intuition to understand climate change, and had weaker beliefs in the interconnectedness of climate knowledge and its reliance on experts and scientific sources. As anticipated, distrust in climate science significantly mediated the relationships between the EBs subscales and belief in CCCT. Additionally, political ideology moderated the effect of believing knowledge originates from experts and science on distrust in climate science - this effect was pronounced among participants identifying with the political center while being weaker among left-wing participants. In Study 2, we were unable to establish a causal relationship between certainty beliefs and belief in CCCT. In conclusion, we suggest that educational initiatives aimed at fostering EBs may reduce science distrust and conspiracy beliefs.}, }
@article {pmid40297304, year = {2025}, author = {Mihailidou, AS and Gulati, M}, title = {Impact of climate change and the environment on cardiovascular health and role of healthcare.}, journal = {American heart journal plus : cardiology research and practice}, volume = {52}, number = {}, pages = {100510}, pmid = {40297304}, issn = {2666-6022}, }
@article {pmid40297105, year = {2025}, author = {Jagadeesha, S and Agarwal, S and Hussein, M and Davies, AM and Adebowale, D and Botchu, R}, title = {Impact of Paper Consumption in Radiology Departments on Carbon Footprint and Climate Change: A Retrospective Analysis and Future Projections.}, journal = {The Indian journal of radiology &amp; imaging}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, pages = {301-305}, pmid = {40297105}, issn = {0971-3026}, abstract = {Introduction Climate change and global warming have major contributions from greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the introduction of digitalized systems, many health care systems still rely heavily on paper. The purpose of this study is to investigate paper usage in the radiology department of a single hospital institution over the last 3 years to forecast paper usage up to 2050. Materials and Methods This retrospective study was performed in the radiology department of our tertiary orthopaedic hospital. The study included forms used for diagnostic and interventional procedures in various departmental modalities. Diagnostic procedures require one to three forms and interventional procedures require three forms each. Based on the established ratio that 1.2 trees are cut for every 10,000 sheets of papers used, the study calculated the number of trees cut annually over the past 3 years and projected paper usage and tree loss until 2050. Results Paper usage was distributed between diagnostic and interventional procedures, with 67% used in diagnostics and 33% in interventions. The corresponding number of trees cut during this period amounted to 53.729 trees, with 47.4 trees for diagnostic procedures and 6.4 trees for interventional procedures. A total of 57.8 trees for diagnostic procedures and 11.7 trees for interventional procedures were forecasted to be cut annually from 2024 to 2050, cumulatively being 1,227 trees by the year 2050. Conclusion Our individual department had a significant contribution from paper usage in the carbon footprint of the department. Adoption of digitalized appointment, prescribing, and patient records is important in reducing this and achieving the NHS net zero targets.}, }
@article {pmid40295645, year = {2025}, author = {Yun, X and Wang, J and Bao, H}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on extreme hydrological characteristics of reservoir inflow in Tianshan Mountain Range, China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {14925}, pmid = {40295645}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2022B03027-3//the National Key Research and Development Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region/ ; 2022B03027-3//the National Key Research and Development Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region/ ; }, abstract = {The hydrological extremes, caused by increasing regional extreme precipitation and melting glaciers or snow under climate change, pose a major challenge to reservoir management in Tianshan Mountain Range of China. Modeling and assessment of hydrological extremes are important measures to ensure the safety of reservoir operations and regional water resources. However, insufficient assessment of hydrological extremes faced by reservoirs in Tianshan Mountain Range has limited the development of flood risk assessment and early warning methods for mountain reservoirs. To this end, based on the VIC-CAS-R model that coupled with glacier snowmelt and reservoir modules, this study analyzed and evaluated the changing characteristics of precipitation and streamflow of selected mountain reservoirs in Tianshan Mountain Range from 1961 to 2014, and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) and Mann-Kendall test were used to identify hydrological extremes as well as the changing trends. The result indicated that (1) the precipitation and streamflow of reservoirs in Tianshan Mountain Range showed a segmented change trend of "increasing-decreasing-increasing"; (2) The hydrological extremes of reservoirs in Tianshan Mountain Range showed notable variations in temporal and spatial distribution, reservoirs located in the western area faced a decrease in wet hydrological extremes (up to 70.8%) and an increase in dry hydrological extremes (up to 73.9%), while reservoir in the eastern region experienced a simultaneous increase in dry and wet hydrological extremes (up to 119.8%). These insights help to deepen the comprehension of the changing characteristics of hydrological extremes induced by climate change in Tianshan Mountain Range reservoirs, and provide support for predicting hydrological extremes in other arid inland mountain regions.}, }
@article {pmid40295576, year = {2025}, author = {Cardoso, AS and da Silva, C and Soriano-Redondo, A and Jarić, I and Batel, S and Santos, JA and Jorge, A and Vaz, AS}, title = {Harnessing deep learning to monitor people's perceptions towards climate change on social media.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {14924}, pmid = {40295576}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {10.54499/2022.06965.PTDC//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; UIDB/04033/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; RYC2023-043755-I//Ram&#xf3;n y Cajal fellowship/ ; }, mesh = {*Social Media ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Deep Learning ; *Perception ; }, abstract = {Social media has become a popular stage for people's views over climate change. Monitoring how climate change is perceived on social media is relevant for informed decision-making. This work advances the way social media users' perceptions and reactions towards climate change can be understood over time, by implementing a scalable methodological framework grounded on natural language processing. The framework was tested in over 1771 thousand X/Twitter posts of Spanish, Portuguese, and English discourses from Southwestern Europe. The employed models were successful (i.e., > 84% success rate) in detecting relevant climate change posts. The methodology detected specific climate phenomena in users' discourse, coinciding with the occurrence of major climatic events in the test area (e.g., wildfires, storms). The classification of sentiments, emotions, and irony was also efficient, with evaluation metrics ranging from 71 to 92%. Most users' reactions were neutral (> 35%) or negative (> 39%), mostly associated to sentiments of anger and sadness over climate impacts. Almost a quarter of posts showed ironic content, reflecting the common use of irony in social media communication. Our exploratory study holds potential to support climate decisions based on deep learning tools from monitoring people's perceptions towards climate issues in the online space.}, }
@article {pmid40295409, year = {2025}, author = {Savran, E and Yavaş, &#xd6; and Günaslan, S and Nalbur, BE and Karpat, F}, title = {Comparison of energy consumption and global warming potential of electric and hydrogen-fueled vehicles across different product size.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {5}, pages = {609}, pmid = {40295409}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Global Warming/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Vehicle Emissions/analysis ; *Hydrogen ; *Motor Vehicles/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Electricity ; Environmental Monitoring ; }, abstract = {The electrification of public transport is important for a sustainable future and directly serves the 11th goal of the SDGs, which is Sustainable Cities and Communities. Nowadays, transportation emissions are increasing day by day. Within the scope of this study, the energy consumption and global warming potential (GWP) analyses of three different types of vehicles (12-m electric, 12-m FCEV fuel cell, and 18-m electric) during their production and usage phases were compared, aiming to guide a sustainable future. For the usage phase of the product, life tests and literature studies were used, regression modelling was utilized for the manufacturing stages, and the SimaPro Ecoinvent module was used for GWP. Within the scope of the study, three different EV and HFC commercial vehicles coming out of the same production line were compared in terms of energy consumption, and while the 12-m electric vehicle had the lowest energy consumption (1.625 kWh/km), the 18-m electric vehicle had the highest energy consumption (2.250 kWh/km). Comparing the GWP potentials of the vehicles, 12-m EV (5.97*10[-4] GWP), 12-m FCEV (1.31*10[-3] GWP), and 18-m EV (2.57*10[-3] GWP) were calculated for the manufacturing stage. In the use phase, the GWPs of the three vehicles were calculated to be approximately the same. Future studies can contribute to the carbon-neutral roadmaps of countries by calculating the carbon footprint and environmental impact analysis across all processes from cradle to grave.}, }
@article {pmid40289165, year = {2025}, author = {Qiu, Y and Chen, J and Chen, D and Thiery, W and Mercado-Bettín, D and Xiong, L and Xia, J and Woolway, RI}, title = {Enhanced heating effect of lakes under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {3954}, pmid = {40289165}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {52479024//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; U2240201//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Lakes play a crucial role in shaping both local and regional climates through heat exchange with the atmosphere. Amid global climate change, these interactions have undergone significant shifts. However, our understanding of the global heat release from lakes to the atmosphere, and its future trajectory, remains limited. In this study, we investigate changes in global lake heat release patterns and identify an amplified increase in heat release, particularly in mid to high latitudes (>45°N). This amplification is linked with a feedback mechanism, where the reduction in lake ice cover not only reduces the insulating effect between the warmer lake water and the colder atmosphere but also leads to increased heat absorption by lakes. As a result, lakes in mid-high latitudes experience a greater relative increase in heat release, primarily through upward thermal radiation, compared to lakes at lower latitudes with comparable surface water temperature increases. Additionally, seasonal variations in latent heat flux intensify the heat release during warmer seasons compared to colder ones. Future projections suggest substantially greater heat release compared to historical trends.}, }
@article {pmid40288734, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, C and Yu, X and Duan, H and Zhao, W and Xia, S and Lan, K and Shi, Q and Damba, I}, title = {Protected areas mitigate the reduction in habitat suitability for swans under climate change: A case study in the Yellow River Basin.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {278}, number = {}, pages = {121686}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.121686}, pmid = {40288734}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Changes in migratory birds' habitats are important indicators of the health of global ecosystems. However, the habitat dynamics of the flagship swan species in China's major river basins and the adaptive strategies these species employ to respond to climate change have remained unclear. Using citizen science data, survey data, and species distribution models, we explored how three future climate scenarios for 2040-2060 affect habitat suitability for migratory swans in the Yellow River Basin. We also evaluated the role of protected areas (PAs) in mitigating the negative impacts of climate change. We found that (1) under current climate conditions, the Mute Swan (Cygnus olor), the Bewick's Swan (Cygnus columbianus bewickii), and the Whooper Swan (Cygnus cygnus) occupy substantial suitable habitats, with the Whooper Swan having the most extensive range. (2) the Mute Swan and the Bewick's Swan were predicted to experience the largest habitat loss under the high-emission scenario, while the Whooper Swan would benefit from climate change by gaining suitable habitat, especially under the medium-emission scenario. (3) PAs were most effective in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on habitat suitability for the Mute Swan, followed by the Whooper Swan, with limited mitigating effect for the Bewick's Swan. These findings highlight the need for species-specific conservation strategies and the critical role of PAs in preserving habitat suitability under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40284714, year = {2025}, author = {Britto Martins de Oliveira, J and Corrêa Junior, D and Parente, CET and Frases, S}, title = {Fungi in Mangrove: Ecological Importance, Climate Change Impacts, and the Role in Environmental Remediation.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {40284714}, issn = {2076-2607}, support = {x//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 001//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior-Brasil (CAPES),/ ; x//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ)./ ; }, abstract = {Mangroves are coastal ecosystems of great ecological importance, located in transition areas between marine and terrestrial environments, predominantly found in tropical and subtropical regions. In Brazil, these biomes are present along the entire coastline, playing essential environmental roles such as sediment stabilization, coastal erosion control, and the filtration of nutrients and pollutants. The unique structure of the roots of some mangrove tree species facilitates sediment deposition and organic matter retention, creating favorable conditions for the development of rich and specialized biodiversity, including fungi, bacteria, and other life forms. Furthermore, mangroves serve as important nurseries for many species of fish, crustaceans, and birds, being fundamental to maintaining trophic networks and the local economy, which relies on fishing resources. However, these ecosystems have been significantly impacted by anthropogenic pressures and global climate change. In recent years, the increase in average global temperatures, rising sea levels, changes in precipitation patterns, and ocean acidification have contributed to the degradation of mangroves. Additionally, human activities such as domestic sewage discharge, pollution from organic and inorganic compounds, and alterations in hydrological regimes have accelerated this degradation process. These factors directly affect the biodiversity present in mangrove sediments, including the fungal community, which plays a crucial role in the decomposition of organic matter and nutrient cycling. Fungi, which include various taxonomic groups such as Ascomycota, Basidiomycota, and Zygomycota, are sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, making the study of their diversity and distribution relevant for understanding the impacts of climate change and pollution. In particular, fungal bioremediation has gained significant attention as an effective strategy for mitigating pollution in these sensitive ecosystems. Fungi possess unique abilities to degrade or detoxify environmental pollutants, including heavy metals and organic contaminants, through processes such as biosorption, bioaccumulation, and enzymatic degradation. This bioremediation potential can help restore the ecological balance of mangrove ecosystems and protect their biodiversity from the adverse effects of pollution. Recent studies suggest that changes in temperature, salinity, and the chemical composition of sediments can drastically modify microbial and fungal communities in these environments, influencing the resilience of the ecosystem. The objective of this narrative synthesis is to point out the diversity of fungi present in mangrove sediments, emphasizing how the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic pollution influence the composition and functionality of these communities. By exploring these interactions, including the role of fungal bioremediation in ecosystem restoration, it is expected that this study would provide a solid scientific basis for the conservation of mangroves and the development of strategies to mitigate the environmental impacts on these valuable ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid40283871, year = {2025}, author = {Weinstein, HNW and Hadley, K and Patel, J and Silliman, S and Gomez Carrasco, RY and Arredondo Santana, AJ and Sosa, H and Rosa, SM and Martinez, C and Hamacher, NP and Campbell, H and Sullivan, JK and Magalhães, DP and Sorensen, C and Valenzuela González, AC}, title = {A Train-the-Trainer Approach to Build Community Resilience to the Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Dominican Republic.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {40283871}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Dominican Republic ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Adult ; Male ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Middle Aged ; *Resilience, Psychological ; }, abstract = {Communities in the Dominican Republic (DR) face increased natural disasters, poor air quality, food insecurity, and health impacts related to climate change. We evaluated the success of a train-the-trainer program to empower community leaders, women, and at-risk youth with the knowledge and skills to increase individual and community resilience in Cristo Rey, Dominican Republic. Three in-person two-day courses were conducted between July and August 2024 at the Universidad Iberoamericana. Each session included eight lectures and collaborative learning activities on climate change science, adaptation, resilience, and health impacts. Intra-group analyses comparing pre- and post-course surveys assessed participants' climate change awareness, literacy, and communication and response skills. One hundred and four attendees participated in the survey study. Of the 100 participants with demographic data, 55% (n = 55) were 35 years old or younger, 70% (n = 70) identified as female, and 45% (n = 45) lived in Cristo Rey. The participants reported high baseline climate change awareness. Compared to before the course, the participants reported increased literacy regarding the environmental impacts of climate change relevant to the DR and the specific health impacts (p-value < 0.05) and increased climate change-related communication and response skills (p-value < 0.001). This study suggests competency-based, regional-specific courses deployed in a train-the-trainer model, have the potential to equip community members with knowledge to protect their health.}, }
@article {pmid40283857, year = {2025}, author = {Kern de Castro, E and Reis, M}, title = {Contributions of Health Psychology to Climate Change: A Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {40283857}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Behavioral Medicine ; Mental Health ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to human health, necessitating interdisciplinary approaches to mitigate its effects. Health psychology, with its focus on behavior change and well-being, is uniquely positioned to contribute to climate action. This review examines how health psychology can address climate-related challenges, emphasizing psychological responses to environmental stressors, behavior modification strategies, and public health interventions. The findings indicate that climate change functions as a psychological stressor, contributing to anxiety, depression, and eco-distress. Additionally, behavioral science insights are underutilized in climate governance, despite their potential to drive sustainable actions. Health psychology can enhance climate adaptation by promoting pro-environmental behaviors, fostering resilience, and integrating psychological well-being into policy frameworks. However, barriers such as limited interdisciplinary collaboration and insufficient emphasis on systemic change hinder progress. To maximize impact, health psychologists must engage in climate governance, advocate for policy integration, and address both individual and collective behavior change. Future research should explore the intersection of mental health, climate resilience, and behavior adaptation to develop comprehensive strategies for tackling climate change. This review underscores the urgent need for health psychology to play a more active role in shaping climate policy and fostering sustainable, health-promoting behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid40283796, year = {2025}, author = {Martha, E and Besral,  and Zainita, UH and Rilfi, NA and Aminudin, SA}, title = {Adolescents' Knowledge on Climate Change: A Nationwide Study in Indonesia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {40283796}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {NKB-461/UN2.RST/HKP.05.00/2022//Directorate of Research and Community Engagement of the Universitas Indonesia (DRPM UI)/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Indonesia ; Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Young Adult ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; }, abstract = {Adolescents' knowledge about climate change is key to protecting the well-being of all generations and to promoting individuals' rights and resilience. This study assesses the climate change literacy of Indonesian adolescents and its determinants. This nationwide study was conducted in 2023 in Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Eastern Indonesia. A total of 1126 adolescents aged 13-19 years were selected through multi-stage sampling. The data were analyzed using the chi-square test and multinomial logistic regression. This study found that 49.7% of adolescents had poor climate change literacy. In the multivariate analysis, the significantly related factors had an odds ratio of 1.66-4.75. Climate change literacy was higher in adolescents from the West and Central Regions, from public or religious schools, and those with educated parents, than in adolescents from the Eastern Region, from private or vocational schools, and those whose parents had low education, respectively. This study suggests the need to promote equality in climate change literacy among Indonesian adolescents through formal and informal education. High-quality formal education would necessitate well-trained teachers with expertise in climate change, as well as a structured, age-appropriate curriculum. Meanwhile, informal education through another information dissemination and social media-based movements can help broaden outreach among adolescents.}, }
@article {pmid40282316, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, Q and Liu, L and Xue, J and Shi, P and Liang, S}, title = {Habitat Suitability Shifts of Eucommia ulmoides in Southwest China Under Climate Change Projections.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {40282316}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {82260767//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; Guizhong Medicine TD He Zi [2024] 001//Technology Innovation Talent Team Cultivation Project of Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine/ ; }, abstract = {As a Chinese endemic species with dual medicinal-industrial importance, Eucommia ulmoides faces habitat challenges under climate change. Using 21 bioclimatic variables and 704 occurrence records, we modeled current and future (2021-2100) distributions via MaxEnt 3.4.4 and ArcGIS 10.8. The results indicate the following: (1) current optimal habitats cluster in the mid-elevation valleys of Daba-Wuling Mountains (Guizhou-Chongqing core); (2) SSP5-8.5 projections suggest a 19.2% reduction in high-suitability areas by 2081-2100 versus SSP1-2.6; and (3) distribution centroids migrate southward under both scenarios. Our multi-temporal analysis provides actionable intelligence for ex situ conservation and agroforestry planning.}, }
@article {pmid40282192, year = {2025}, author = {Xu, M and Liu, Y and Song, X and Yang, L}, title = {Changes in Seasonal Spatial Distribution Patterns of Euprymna berryi and Euprymna morsei: The Current and Predictions Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {40282192}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Given their small size and low value in commercial fishing and aquaculture, little is known about the seasonal spatial distribution patterns and characteristics of the bobtail squid Euprymna berryi and Euprymna morsei in seas around China. Thus, we conducted seasonal bottom-trawling surveys in the southern Yellow and East China Seas during 2018 and 2019. Our results showed that E. berryi migrated from inshore areas (Yushan fishing grounds) during the summer and autumn to offshore areas (Wentai fishing grounds) during the winter. In contrast, E. morsei migrated from shallower water areas during the spring to deeper water areas during the winter. The highest abundance of E. berryi versus E. morsei was found in areas where temperatures were 25.29-28.02 °C compared with 19.54 °C (33.43-34.04‱ versus 34.43‱), respectively, during the summer; 20.99-21.69 °C compared with 21.98-22.70 °C (34.07-34.50‱ versus 33.80-33.60‱), respectively, during autumn; and 17.13-20.36 °C compared with 10.51-13.49 °C (34.23-34.46‱ versus 31.69-33.42‱), respectively, during winter. We predict that suitable habitats for E. berryi would expand more northward under SSP585-2050, whereas those for E. morsei would shrink into more northern locations under SSP370-2100 and SSP585-2100. The SSP245-2100 and SSP585-2100 scenarios had the most negative impacts on the distributions of both species. Such insights improve our understanding of the population dynamics and habitat requirements of both species to support their population management and exploitation in response to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40281998, year = {2025}, author = {Chen, K and Shao, W and Li, Y and Wang, L and Lin, Z and Guo, L and Wei, L}, title = {Biomod2 Modeling for Predicting Suitable Distribution of Bamboo Bat (Tylonycteris pachypus) Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {40281998}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {2021ZDYF05//the Key Research Projects of Lishui City/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change significantly impacts species distribution and survival, particularly for habitat specialists with limited dispersal abilities. This study investigates the current and future distribution of Tylonycteris pachypus, one of the world's smallest bats specialized in bamboo-dwelling, using ensemble modeling approaches. Based on comprehensive occurrence data and seven environmental variables, we developed an ensemble model using the Biomod2 platform, achieving high predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.981, TSS: 0.877). Three environmental variables were identified as crucial determinants: minimum temperature of the coldest month (40.90% contribution), maximum temperature of the warmest month (38.38%), and precipitation of the wettest quarter (11.09%). Currently, highly suitable habitats (291.893 × 10[4] km[2]) are concentrated in three main regions: southern China and Indochina Peninsula, Myanmar-Bangladesh-northeastern India, and isolated areas in southwest India and Thailand. Under future climate scenarios, particularly SSP585, suitable habitats are projected to decrease substantially (64.4% reduction by 2090s), with a notable northward shift in distribution. However, the species' limited dispersal ability, specific habitat requirements, and geographical barriers may constrain its capacity to track these climate-driven changes. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of T. pachypus to climate change and emphasize the need for targeted conservation strategies, including protecting climate-resilient habitats and maintaining bamboo forest corridors. This study provides a comprehensive framework for monitoring and conserving this specialized species under climate change, while considering its unique ecological constraints and dispersal limitations.}, }
@article {pmid40291811, year = {2023}, author = {Sugg, MM and Ryan, S and Spurlock, T and Duncan, S and Hege, A and Ogwu, MC and Tyson, J and Shay, E and Renwick, KA and Hendren, C and Roy, M and Runkle, JD}, title = {Climate change and health in rural mountain environments: summary of a workshop on knowledge gaps, barriers, and opportunities for action.}, journal = {GeoJournal}, volume = {88}, number = {5}, pages = {5397-5409}, pmid = {40291811}, issn = {1572-9893}, support = {R15 ES033817/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change and its associated impacts on human health are serious and growing challenges. Yet, despite elevated health disparities, unique underlying vulnerabilities, and distinctive ecosystems, little research has been conducted in rural mountain environments to understand climate-health interactions. The climate change and health workshop in rural mountain environments was held at Appalachian State University in Boone, North Carolina, United States, to address these research gaps. Experts, community members, and students from diverse disciplines engaged in World Café brainstorms and open-ended discussions to highlight needs across seven research priority themes, which focused on rural southern Appalachia but are applicable to other rural mountain environments: (1) anticipating climate change-driven environmental changes specific to rural mountain environments; (2) identifying and reaching vulnerable populations; (3) building health care access security during weather disasters; (4) building mental health support security in the context of climate change; (5) vector-borne disease resilience; (6) building food security in the context of climate change; and (7) public education and conversations of climate change. This report summarizes the workshop findings and provides a template for future research at the intersection of climate and health, including but not limited to establishing multi-sector and interdisciplinary working groups with clear objectives, enhancing knowledge and understanding of key issues, as well as acting collaboratively and engaging with stakeholders to build resilience in rural mountain environments to address the effects of climate change on human health.}, }
@article {pmid40281209, year = {2025}, author = {Cong, W and Li, J and Zhang, Y and Huang, T and Gao, S and Yu, J and Zhang, Y and Li, D}, title = {Snow Leopard habitat vulnerability assessment under climate change and connectivity corridor in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {14583}, pmid = {40281209}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2021xjkk1203//The Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; China ; *Ecosystem ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Panthera/physiology ; Biodiversity ; Endangered Species ; }, abstract = {Climate change is recognized as one of the greatest challenges to global biodiversity. The endangered snow leopard (Panthera uncia), an apex predator in high-altitude mountain ecosystems, serves as an important indicator of ecological health. Understanding the impacts of climate change on snow leopard distribution patterns is essential for developing effective conservation strategies. Based on the BIOMOD2 model, this study assesses the current distribution of suitable habitats and project future changes under various climate scenarios, as well as evaluates the protection gap and corridor construction in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. The results indicated the total area of suitable habitat for snow leopard in Xinjiang is approximately 686,200 km[2] under the current climate conditions. The area of suitable habitat remains relatively stable or slightly increases under low emissions scenarios, while predictions show a gradual decline under moderate and high emissions scenarios. Currently, suitable habitats are fragmented, with low connectivity among patches, posing threats to the snow leopard population. Vulnerable habitats are primarily located in the Altai, northwestern Junggar Basin, and the central Tianshan Mountains. Potential future suitable areas are projected emerge in the Kunlun Mountains. It is suggested that greater focus be placed on unprotected climate refugia, enhancing the connectivity of habitat corridors, fostering cross-border cooperation, and implementing long-term monitoring efforts. This study provides valuable insights for conservation strategies aimed at mitigating the impacts of climate change on snow leopard populations in Xinjiang, China.}, }
@article {pmid40281105, year = {2025}, author = {Bhuyan, A and Bawri, A and Saikia, BP and Baidya, S and Hazarika, S and Thakur, B and Chetry, V and Deka, BS and Bharali, P and Prakash, A and Sarma, K and Devi, A}, title = {Publisher Correction: Predicting habitat suitability of Illicium griffithii under climate change scenarios using an ensemble modeling approach.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {14494}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-025-98167-w}, pmid = {40281105}, issn = {2045-2322}, }
@article {pmid40281099, year = {2025}, author = {Coye, P and Willitsford, A}, title = {The effects of climate change on EO/IR propagation using CMIP6 global atmospheric forecasting simulations.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {14475}, pmid = {40281099}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change-driven atmospheric effects are of particular concern to those who operate electro-optic and infrared (EO/IR) sensors, as atmospheric constituents such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, and aerosols drive the absorption and scattering effects necessary to characterize deployed optical system performance. Current models of EO/IR propagation are fed by statistics built off the historical state of the atmosphere by utilizing ground based observations, satellite data, or reanalysis datasets. Such methods are effective at characterizing EO/IR propagation for historical time periods, but do little to inform decisions related to future sensor deployment. This work utilizes future projections of atmospheric variables from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), an international collection of climate models, to characterize atmospheric transmittance, a metric closely tied to EO/IR performance. Analysis of regional transmittance (particularly in the long-wave infrared) reveals drops by as much as 20% from 2015-2100 for a path as short as 2 km - this is nearly a doubling of the band averaged extinction coefficient.}, }
@article {pmid40281081, year = {2025}, author = {Gamperl, AK and Porter, ES and Brooks, AB}, title = {The scaled sardine's unique metabolic phenotype and its implications for the susceptibility of small tropical pelagic fishes to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {14496}, pmid = {40281081}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {#2022-03790//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; #2022-03790//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Fishes/metabolism/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Swimming/physiology ; Phenotype ; Ecosystem ; Energy Metabolism ; Tropical Climate ; Food Chain ; }, abstract = {Small pelagic fishes (e.g., sardines, anchovies and their relatives) are preyed upon by large predatory fishes, birds and mammals, and thus, are key species in marine food webs and with respect to ecosystem health and productivity. However, we know little about their physiology, and such information will be critical to predicting how their populations may be impacted by human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) and in implementing effective conservation strategies. As a first step, we determined the maximum swimming speed, aerobic capacity [maximum metabolic rate (MMR) and aerobic scope (AS)] and cost of transport (COT; the energy required to swim a given distance) of scaled sardines (Harengula jaguana) collected in Eleuthera (The Bahamas). The scaled sardine's critical swimming speed (Ucrit) was ~ 5-6 body length's per second, and this agrees with data collected on free-swimming schools of similar fishes in the wild. However, they had unexpectedly high values for MMR and AS (~ 25% and 70% greater than tuna, respectively), and for COT. These findings have important implications with regard to how these ecologically important fishes will potentially respond to HIREC-related challenges such as increased temperature and decreases in the biomass and size of plankton upon which they feed.}, }
@article {pmid40280916, year = {2025}, author = {Forster, EJ and Styles, D and Healey, JR}, title = {Temperate forests can deliver future wood demand and climate-change mitigation dependent on afforestation and circularity.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {3872}, pmid = {40280916}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {NE/L002604/1//RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; }, abstract = {Global wood demand is expected to rise but supply capacity is questioned due to limited forest resources. Additionally, the global warming potential (GWP) impact of increased wood supply and use is not well understood. We propose a framework combining forest carbon modelling and dynamic consequential life-cycle assessment to evaluate this impact. Applying it to generic temperate forest, we show that afforestation to double productive forest area combined with enhanced productivity can meet lower-bound wood demand projections from 2058. Temperate forestry value-chains can achieve cumulative GWP benefit of up to 265 Tg CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 per 100,000 ha of forest (if expanded to 200,000 ha through afforestation). Net GWP balance depends on which overseas forests supply domestic shortfalls, how wood is used, and the rate of industrial decarbonisation. Increased wood-use could aid climate-change mitigation, providing it is coupled with a long-term planting strategy, enhanced forest productivity and efficient wood use.}, }
@article {pmid40280090, year = {2025}, author = {Ager, TG and Sejr, MK and Duarte, CM and Mankoff, KD and Schourup-Kristensen, V and Boertmann, D and Møller, EF and Thyrring, J and Krause-Jensen, D}, title = {Climate change and its diverse regional impacts on Greenland's marine biota.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {979}, number = {}, pages = {179443}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179443}, pmid = {40280090}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study quantified climate-driven changes and spatial variability in key environmental drivers over four decades along Greenland's coastal and shelf marine ecosystems and evaluated their impacts on marine biota divided into six regions. We analyzed trends in sea ice concentration and seasonality, sea surface temperatures, salinity, and freshwater inputs from ice discharge and freshwater runoff. West, East, and Southeast Greenland were most impacted by climate change, driven by increasing sea surface temperatures (0.22-0.5 °C decade[-1]), freshwater inputs (10.14-24.93 Gt yr[-1] decade[-1]), declining sea ice concentrations (3-5.3 % decade[-1]), and more open water days (10.92-23.9 days decade[-1]). The Northwest and Northeast regions appeared more resilient due to lower sea surface temperature increases (0.01-0.03 °C decade[-1]) and sea ice declines (0.5-2.1 % decade[-1]). Changes in Southwest Greenland were limited to sea surface temperature (0.27 °C decade[-1]) and freshwater runoff (7.66 Gt yr[-1] decade[-1]) increases since the 1990s. Synthesized evidence from 94 marine biota time series showed 73 exhibiting significant changes, and 37 identified an environmental driver: sea ice (20), temperature (19), and runoff (2). Only four time series considered multiple drivers. Biota time series trends mirrored regional environmental changes; 78 % changed significantly in West, East and Southeast regions combined, 73 % in southwest, and 56 % in the northern regions. Fish, benthic flora, and benthic fauna responses remained unclear due to data gaps, underscoring the need for further research. In conclusion, our findings reveal widespread biological change linked to climate but with distinct regional patterns in environmental drivers and associated responses across Greenland.}, }
@article {pmid40279357, year = {2025}, author = {Liang, Q and Shao, L and Hussain, Z and Chao, Y and Liu, H and Wang, C}, title = {Climate change, geography and trade agreements: A perspective of Asian bilateral trade.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {e0320363}, pmid = {40279357}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Commerce/economics ; Asia ; Geography ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Gross Domestic Product ; }, abstract = {This study investigates the simultaneous effects of geographic factors, trade agreements, and climate change on bilateral exports in Asian countries. We estimate the correlation with bilateral exports by utilizing a panel data set from 2000 to 2020, employing various econometric techniques, particularly the structural gravity model. Therefore, this study aims to examine the simultaneous or complementary impact of influencing factors on exports and link them with the gross domestic product. Findings demonstrate that geographic factors are crucial for determining bilateral exports in terms of increasing trends. Furthermore, geography plays a crucial role in enhancing the magnitude and probability of bilateral exports between trading partner countries. Moreover, bilateral exports have declined because of the simultaneous impact of geographic factors, climate change, and economic size. Thus, geographic factors and economic size affect marginal exports to varying degrees. This study suggests that the simultaneous increase in economic size, trade agreements, and geographic factors can enhance the bilateral export level and its probability at an above-average rate between trading partner countries.}, }
@article {pmid40279193, year = {2024}, author = {Migliorini, L and Ferrari, JR}, title = {Sustainable communities, climate change and well-being.}, journal = {Journal of prevention &amp; intervention in the community}, volume = {52}, number = {3-4}, pages = {375-378}, doi = {10.1080/10852352.2025.2491868}, pmid = {40279193}, issn = {1540-7330}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Italy ; *Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {The world is facing a growing climate crisis, with severe impacts on biodiversity, health, migration, and overall well-being. This issue of JPIC presents empirical contributions from the 2024 Summer Institute for Doctoral Students, affiliated with the Italian Community Psychology Association and held in Pinzolo, Italy. It fosters interdisciplinary dialogue on the complex environmental and social challenges affecting communities. Community psychology offers a unique perspective on climate change, focusing on the psychological and relational dimensions of individual and collective well-being. The featured studies examine the mental health impacts of climate change across micro, community, and macro levels, and propose community-based strategies for sustainable development and resilience. Our aim is to contribute to a shared vision of the future, where sustainability and well-being are central to thriving, resilient communities.}, }
@article {pmid40278807, year = {2025}, author = {Hindmarch, GM and Meza, J and Shimkhada, R and Padilla-Frausto, DI and Eisenberg, D}, title = {Climate Change Stress Among Adolescents In California: Associations With Psychological Distress, Suicide Ideation, and Social and Demographic Factors.}, journal = {The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jadohealth.2025.02.019}, pmid = {40278807}, issn = {1879-1972}, abstract = {PURPOSE: Extreme weather events related to climate change have negative impacts on mental health. Less is known about how the awareness of climate change, known as climate change stress, impacts adolescent mental health. This study explores the association between climate change stress and psychological distress and suicide ideation among adolescents in California and factors associated with climate change stress.<br><br>METHODS: This study uses cross-sectional data from the 2021 and 2022 California Health Interview Survey adolescent data set. All analyses used California Health Interview Survey weights to be representative of the statewide population. Pearson's Chi-squared tests and 2-sample t-tests were used to explore differences between adolescents reporting climate change stress or not. Binary logistic regressions were used to explore the association between climate stress and psychological distress and suicide ideation.<br><br>RESULTS: 38.1 percent of California's adolescents report climate change stress. Adolescents who report this stress are more likely to be female, gender nonconforming, White, from higher-income families, have adverse childhood experiences, frequently use social media, be involved in their community, and feel civic efficacy. Climate change stress is associated with 2.395 times greater odds of psychological distress in the past month and 1.853 times greater odds of suicide ideation in the past year.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate change stress is common for adolescents in California and associated with psychological distress and suicide ideation. This is an emerging topic that needs more focus. Researchers, policymakers, and mental health experts can work together to address the impacts of climate change on the mental well-being of adolescents.}, }
@article {pmid40276973, year = {2025}, author = {Edwards, RT}, title = {Transdisciplinary health economics for 2050: the challenge of preventing the adverse health effects of obesity, inequalities, and climate change.}, journal = {Expert review of pharmacoeconomics &amp; outcomes research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1080/14737167.2025.2498658}, pmid = {40276973}, issn = {1744-8379}, }
@article {pmid40276461, year = {2025}, author = {Wu, YT and Prina, M and Zaninotto, P}, title = {Climate Change and Healthy Aging: What Are the Existing Data in Aging Studies?.}, journal = {Innovation in aging}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {igaf008}, pmid = {40276461}, issn = {2399-5300}, }
@article {pmid40276296, year = {2025}, author = {Estrada Riolobos, G}, title = {[Community pharmacy and global warming].}, journal = {Farmaceuticos comunitarios}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {1-2}, pmid = {40276296}, issn = {2173-9218}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Humans ; *Community Pharmacy Services ; Carbon Footprint ; Climate Change ; Nebulizers and Vaporizers ; *Pharmacies ; Recycling ; }, abstract = {The acceleration of climate change due to human activities demands urgent action at all levels. In the healthcare sector, the use of inhalers with high global warming potential represents a significant source of emissions, further exacerbated by low recycling rates. The transition to lower-impact devices and improved waste management are priority actions. In this context, community pharmacists play a key role-not only in optimizing inhalation therapy and educating patients, but also in reducing the associated carbon footprint-thus promoting a more sustainable healthcare practice.}, }
@article {pmid40276295, year = {2025}, author = {Casanova-Martínez, C and Espino-Paisán, E and Buján-de-Gonzalo, L and Lema-Oreiro, M and Álvarez-Sánchez, MJ}, title = {[Inhaled Respiratory Therapy and Global Warming].}, journal = {Farmaceuticos comunitarios}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {21-29}, pmid = {40276295}, issn = {2173-9218}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Humans ; Retrospective Studies ; *Respiratory Therapy ; *Metered Dose Inhalers ; Carbon Footprint ; *Aerosol Propellants/administration &amp; dosage/adverse effects ; Administration, Inhalation ; Female ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Fluorocarbons/administration &amp; dosage/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) propellants used in current pressurized metered-dose inhalers (pMDIs) act as potent greenhouse gases, contributing to global warming. The objective of this study is to analyse the type and pattern of use of inhaler use in the Galician population, as well as to assess its impact on the carbon footprint.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: This is an observational, descriptive, and retrospective study conducted in the autonomous community of Galicia in 2023. It included patients receiving pharmaceutical care from the Galician Health Service (SERGAS) who are being treated with bronchial inhalers for the management of their respiratory conditions.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 1.711.344 inhaler units were dispensed, equivalent to a carbon footprint of 15.247.142 kg CO2eq. pMDIs accounted for 43,17% (738.707) of the units dispensed in 2023, corresponding to almost 95,43% of the carbon footprint emitted by inhalers, with HFA-134a being the most used propellant (669.907 units).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: pMDIs contribute to global warming, generating nearly the entire carbon footprint emitted by inhalers used in respiratory therapy. SERGAS has implemented several strategies to reduce the environmental impact caused by pMDIs.}, }
@article {pmid40276242, year = {2025}, author = {Hill, G and Gauci, C and Assis, J and Jueterbock, A}, title = {Turning the Tide: A 2°C Increase in Heat Tolerance Can Halve Climate Change-Induced Losses in Four Cold-Adapted Kelp Species.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e71271}, pmid = {40276242}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Kelp forests are susceptible to climate change, as their sessile nature and low dispersal capacity hinder tracking of suitable conditions. The emergence of a wide array of approaches to increasing thermal tolerance seeks to change the outlook of biodiversity in a changing climate but lacks clear targets of impactful thermal resilience. Here, we utilize species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate the potential of enhanced thermal tolerance to buffer the effects of climate change on cold-adapted kelp species: Saccharina latissima, Alaria esculenta, Laminaria hyperborea, and Laminaria digitata. For each species, we compared a baseline model-where the thermal niche remained unchanged-to models where the simulated maximum sea surface temperature tolerance was increased by 1°C-5°C. These models were projected into three climate change scenarios: sustainability (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-1.9, Paris Agreement), regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0), and fossil-fuel development (SSP 5-8.5). Our SDMs demonstrate that an increase of 1°C-2°C in thermal tolerance could recover over 50% of predicted losses of suitable habitat for cold-adapted kelps. However, A. esculenta, a species of growing commercial interest, still faced persistent habitat contraction across all climate change scenarios and simulated tolerance increases, including up to 15% unrecovered losses under SSP5-8.5, even with a simulated 5°C increase in thermal tolerance. Our findings highlight the need for a two-pronged approach to conserve cold-adapted kelp forests: stringent reductions in greenhouse gas emission reductions in line with the SSP1-1.9 scenario, and strategies to boost kelp's thermal tolerance by at least 1°C-2°C. This dual approach is crucial to maintain 90% of the current suitable habitat of S. latissima and L. digitata, and 70% for A. esculenta and L. hyperborea. Relying on mitigation or adaptation alone will likely be insufficient to maintain their historic range under projected climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40276125, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, K and Dang, Y and Li, Y and Tao, C and Hur, J and He, Y}, title = {Impact of climate change on vaccine responses and inequity.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {1216-1218}, pmid = {40276125}, issn = {1758-678X}, abstract = {Climate change poses a substantial threat to global health by altering environmental conditions and impacting vaccine effectiveness. We explore how climate change impacts vaccines and worsens inequities, highlighting the need for further research and targeted interventions.}, }
@article {pmid40275219, year = {2025}, author = {Ward, N and Robinson, K and Jacobs, J and Nichols, M and Moodie, M and Brown, V}, title = {Including climate change in community-based obesity prevention interventions: a qualitative exploration of the perspectives of Australian funders.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {1526}, pmid = {40275219}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {GNT2002234//National Health and Medical Research Council/ ; GNT2002234//National Health and Medical Research Council/ ; GNT2002234//National Health and Medical Research Council/ ; GNT2002234//National Health and Medical Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Obesity/prevention &amp; control ; Australia ; Qualitative Research ; Interviews as Topic ; *Health Promotion ; *Community Health Services/economics ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Community-based obesity prevention interventions (CBOPIs) demonstrate promise as effective, cost-effective approaches to prevent obesity. Whilst CBOPI actions often focus on obesity-related outcomes, they may also have positive impacts on climate change. Actions that simultaneously address obesity and climate change are known as double-duty actions. For example, switching to active modes of transport benefits individual health, while also reducing emissions from vehicle use. Support from CBOPI funding decision-makers is crucial for intervention success; the factors influencing funding decisions are currently not well understood. This study aimed to identify factors that influence funding decisions within organisations, to determine whether funders recognise double-duty actions in CBOPIs, and which double-duty actions are preferred.<br><br>METHODS: Potential participants with CBOPI funding decision-making roles were purposively sampled and invited to participate. Potential interview participants from government and non-government organisations were identified by search engine (Google) and invited via email to partake in an interview. Sixty-five invites were emailed and seven interviews with eight participants were conducted between April-May 2023. The participating stakeholders all had health roles; four State-wide and four local government. Semi-structured interviews with eight participants were conducted over Zoom between February-May 2023. Interviews were transcribed using Zoom Transcription and analysed with the assistance of NVivo. Reflexive Thematic Analysis underpinned the data analysis and the Social Ecological Model was used to further develop the theory.<br><br>RESULTS: Results suggested that participants recognised double-duty actions and believed inclusion of climate change action in CBOPIs would improve both intervention outcomes and participant acceptability. However, participants believed that stringent funding models limit flexibility to include climate change action. This could be mitigated by incorporating climate change into strategic health plans. Community partnerships may also be an effective tool to enhance double-duty actions in CBOPIs, as they allow participants to tailor interventions to community concerns including climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: CBOPIs that use double-duty actions to intentionally target obesity prevention and climate change action may play an important role in addressing two critical public health issues at the community level. Whilst CBOPI funders are supportive of double-duty actions, modifications from strategy and partnerships may be required to realise the successful implementation.}, }
@article {pmid40275140, year = {2025}, author = {Farahat, EA and Tashani, AF and Mahmoud, AR}, title = {The sensitivity and response of the threatened endemic shrub Arbutus pavarii to current and future climate change.}, journal = {BMC ecology and evolution}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {36}, pmid = {40275140}, issn = {2730-7182}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ericaceae/physiology ; Endangered Species ; Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to significantly alter and modify the ecological conditions of plant distribution and growth, particularly in the Mediterranean Basin, which is considered one of the hot spots for global warming. Measuring and modeling the response (sensitivity) of wild plants to current and future climate is critical to predicting future biodiversity and ecological values. Arbutus pavarii Pamp. (family Ericaceae) is a narrow endemic Libyan medicinal plant and one of the Red List species according to the IUCN that faces the threats of extinction due to habitat deterioration, overuse, and low reproductive rates. In this study, the species distribution model (SDM) approach was used to model and forecast range shifts in Arbutus pavarii under current and future climate change scenarios at various Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP1-2.6 (lowest emission scenario) and SSP5-8.5 (highest emission scenario) for the years 2050s and 2070s. The modeling results indicate that the current highly suitable areas of the plant will decrease in the future compared to the low and moderate ones. The distribution range of A. pavarii will increase under lower emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, 2050s) by 1.12% but under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5, 2070s), the suitability of the habitat will decrease by 1.39%. Given the low reproductive fitness and the anticipated rise in air temperature, A. pavarii is likely to encounter greater challenges in its natural existence and dispersal. Lands with high elevation and precipitation are suitable for its future distribution. We recommend further ecophysiological and tree-ring studies on this species to investigate its growth-climate relationship and performance under drought conditions. The in-situ conservation of A. pavarii as well as its cultivation in the projected high and moderate habitats are recommended. Local community engagement may be beneficial in any conservation program for this species.}, }
@article {pmid40274930, year = {2025}, author = {Elshewey, AM and Jamjoom, MM and Alkhammash, EH}, title = {An enhanced CNN with ResNet50 and LSTM deep learning forecasting model for climate change decision making.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {14372}, pmid = {40274930}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant challenge to wind energy production. It involves long-term, noticeable changes in key climatic factors such as wind power, temperature, wind speed, and wind patterns. Addressing climate change is essential to safeguarding our environment, societies, and economies. In this context, accurately forecasting temperature and wind power becomes crucial for ensuring the stable operation of wind energy systems and for effective power system planning and management. Numerous approaches to wind change forecasting have been proposed including both traditional forecasting models and deep learning models. Traditional forecasting models have limitations since they cannot describe the complex nonlinear relationship in climatic data, resulting in low forecasting accuracy. Deep learning techniques have promising non-linear processing capabilities in weather forecasting. To further advance the integration of deep learning in climate change forecasting, we have developed a hybrid model called CNN-ResNet50-LSTM, comprising a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a Deep Convolutional Network (ResNet50), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict two climate change factors: temperature and wind power. The experiment was conducted using three publicly available datasets: Wind Turbine Scada (Scada) Dataset, Saudi Arabia Weather history (SA) dataset, and Wind Power Generation Data for 4 locations (WPG) dataset. The forecasting accuracy is evaluated using several evaluation metrics, including the coefficient of determination ([Formula: see text]), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Median Absolute Error (MedAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The proposed CNN-ResNet50-LSTM model was also compared to five regression models: Dummy Regressor (DR), Kernel Ridge Regressor (KRR), Decision Tree Regressor (DTR), Extra Trees Regressor (ETR), and Stochastic Gradient Descent Regressor (SGDR). Findings revealed that CNN-ResNet50-LSTM model achieved the best performance, with [Formula: see text] scores of 98.84% for wind power forecasting in the Scada dataset, 99.01% for temperature forecasting in the SA dataset, 98.58% for temperature forecasting and 98.35% for wind power forecasting in the WPG dataset. The CNN-ResNet50-LSTM model demonstrated promising potential in forecasting both temperature and wind power. Additionally, we applied the CNN-ResNet50-LSTM model to predict climate changes up to 2030 using historical data, providing insights that highlight its potential for future forecasting and decision-making.}, }
@article {pmid40274651, year = {2025}, author = {Towolawi, AT and Oguntoke, O and Bada, BS and Adejuwon, JO and Adegbore, AK and Abdulsalami, BA and Buari, ZO}, title = {Thermal stress indication for heat-related illnesses by climate change in Nigeria using multivariate analysis.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40274651}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {PG/09/0181//World Bank Group/ ; }, abstract = {Biometeorology typifies climate change threats with indices such as the thermal stress index (TSI) for heat-related illnesses. The study aimed to evaluate the actual TSI (which has five categories: TSI < 27 (safe), 27 < TSI < 32 (heat fatigue), 32 < TSI < 41 (sunstroke and heat exhaustion), 41 < TSI < 54 (sunstroke and heat cramps), and TSI > 54 (sunstroke, heat stroke and heat confusion, or delirium) across four rain-fed provinces (Markudi in Benue state, Benin in Edo state, Minna in Niger state and Ondo in Ondo state) using 32-year (1987-2018) monthly temperature and relative humidity data obtained from Nigeria Meteorology Services, Abuja. The TSI was computed for each state, and its average was compared across the states. Pearson's correlation momentum (PCM), Normal probability residual plot (NPRP), Multiple regression analysis (MRA), and Principal component analysis (PCA) were also adopted. The results showed that there were more heat fatigue indications in the dry periods than in the wet period in the Benin environment; nearly one-third of the study years (12 out of 32 years) indicated heat fatigue, denoting prevalence of climate change (CC) effects in Ondo State and environs. The order of occurrences of heat fatigue (27 < TSI < 32) in Minna and its environs were peculiar to April > March > May with 21, 7, and 6 values of occurrences, respectively. Both 2004 and 2018 had 4-month with the highest indication of heat fatigue (27 < TSI < 32) in Makurdi environs. The multivariate analysis: PCM, NPRP, MRA, and PCA indicated various monthly strong TSI associations at 0.01 level of statistics; valid and established homoscedasticity for the model; significant reduced effects in February, June and October while increased effect in September; and the seven wet season, four dry season (November to February), and March had 47, 19 and 10% variance across component 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The study concluded that the most prevalent TSI category was fatigue, against which the study advised healthcare education for dwellers and their environs to cope with the CC effects.}, }
@article {pmid40273829, year = {2025}, author = {Kidd, SA and Rosenbaum, D and Rotenberg, M and Kenny, GP}, title = {Climate change and schizophrenia: Implications and directions.}, journal = {Schizophrenia research}, volume = {280}, number = {}, pages = {114-116}, doi = {10.1016/j.schres.2025.04.020}, pmid = {40273829}, issn = {1573-2509}, }
@article {pmid40273788, year = {2025}, author = {Chahrour, M and Wulf, C and Zapp, P}, title = {Assessing climate change impact of blue ammonia via carbon capture and utilization in life cycle modelling.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {383}, number = {}, pages = {125438}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125438}, pmid = {40273788}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Ammonia production represents a fundamental aspect of the global chemical industry. It is a significant contributor to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and it is necessary that innovative methods be developed to reduce its climate impact. This study assesses the environmental impact of blue ammonia production incorporating carbon capture and utilization (CCU) through a novel Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach, based on the latest guidelines from the Together for Sustainability (TfS) initiative. This analysis is centred on three systems: grey ammonia (System A), blue ammonia with in-process carbon capture (System B), and blue ammonia utilizing system expansion via direct air capture (DAC) (System C). The results demonstrate that the production of grey ammonia in Germany generates 3.12 kgCO2eq per kg of ammonia, predominantly due to emissions from steam methane reforming (SMR). The incorporation of in-process CO2 capture in blue ammonia (System B) results in a climate impact of 1.79 kgCO2eq for the functional unit of 1 kg ammonia plus 1.85 kg of succesfully captured CO2. The implementation of system expansion via DAC (System C), as recommended by the TfS guidelines, results in a further reduction of ammonia emissions to 2.64 kgCO2eq, in comparison to System A. This approach also yields a net negative impact of -0.85 kgCO2eq for the captured CO2 co-product, enabling the realization of the shared incentivization objective articulated in the suggested guideline. The regional scenarios convincingly demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves varying levels of success, often leading to more polarized incentivization. The future scenario will significantly enhance the benefits of CCU and the utilization of CO2 as a co-product. However, this will be at the expense of incentivizing the production of blue ammonia. This work advances the methodologies for LCA of multi-functional CCU systems, demonstrating the potential for shared incentives in the transition to a new ammonia generation system as a prime example. Nonetheless, it also highlights limitations in regions where the energy source is dominated by fossil fuels or where the energy source is fully renewable. The current TfS framework methodology proposition is therefore a short-term solution to promote the sustainable production of blue ammonia with CCU applications.}, }
@article {pmid40273781, year = {2025}, author = {Lin, Y and Osman, NA and Tang, S and Ahmad, MN and Sulaiman, R and Zhang, Y and Su, J}, title = {A sustainable industrial waste control with AI for predicting CO2 for climate change monitoring.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {383}, number = {}, pages = {125338}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125338}, pmid = {40273781}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {As the challenge of climate change continues to grow, we need creative solutions to predict better and track industrial waste carbon emissions, focusing on sustainable waste management practices. The present study proposes a state-of-the-art Metaverse framework that puts artificial intelligence into action in predicting carbon emissions using energy use patterns and industrial social factors. At the heart of this framework lies a hybrid deep learning model combining convolutional neural networks and Long-term, short-term memory to model complicated spatial and temporal dependencies inherent in data. Further, gradient-boosting machines have been added to improve predictive performance by modeling the nonlinear relationship and interaction between features. The Metaverse environment enables a dynamic and interactive platform for real-time climate monitoring, allowing users to visualize and analyze the impacts of different energy and socio-economic scenarios on carbon emissions. Instead of traditional models, the Metaverse provides an immersive experience with deep knowledge of complex spatial relationships. This interactive capacity allows users to engage with the data more in an adaptable way. The proposed hybrid model achieves 99.5 % predictive accuracy, R2 = 0.995 for carbon emissions, and 99.2 % R[2]=0.992 for energy consumption compared to traditional methods. Such high accuracy underlines how effective deep learning techniques are combined with ensemble methods in capturing multifaceted climate data. Therefore, the outcome that brings out this AI-driven Metaverse is a potent tool for policymakers and researchers to make informed decisions to mitigate the impact of climate change. This framework consolidates diverse data sources in an immersing virtual environment, making it a very advanced tool in the climate science landscape by providing a comprehensive solution for predicting and monitoring carbon emissions.}, }
@article {pmid40273231, year = {2025}, author = {Stage, A and Vermund, MC and Bølling, M and Otte, CR and Oest Müllertz, AL and Bentsen, P and Nielsen, G and Elsborg, P}, title = {The impact of a school garden program on children's food literacy, climate change literacy, school motivation, and physical activity: A study protocol.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {e0320574}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0320574}, pmid = {40273231}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; Child ; *Schools ; *Motivation ; *Climate Change ; *Gardens ; Male ; Female ; Denmark ; *Exercise ; *Gardening ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: FoodACT aims to investigate how school gardens affect children's food literacy (FL), climate change literacy (CCL), school motivation (SM), and physical activity (PA).<br><br>DESIGN: It comprises a multimethod, quasi-experimental inquiry into an existing Danish school garden program, Gardens to Bellies (GtB). Data will be collected using surveys, accelerometry, semi-structured and focus-group interviews. The study is preregistered with ClinicalTrials.gov (#NCT05839080).<br><br>SETTING: Six GtB school garden locations across Region Zealand and Region of Southern Denmark.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: Fourth grade pupils attending GtB (approx. 1600) are recruited to the intervention group. Fourth grade pupils from schools not attending GtB (approx. 1600) are recruited to the control group.<br><br>INTERVENTION: Pupils grow, prepare and cook foods for meals in the school garden during eight garden sessions.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: FL, CCL and SM are measured using pre- and post-intervention surveys in both groups. Pupils participating in GtB have their PA assessed using accelerometery, and acute SM by text-message-surveys. Semi-structured and focus-groups interviews are held with garden facilitators and pupils focusing on the implementation of GtB and mechanisms related to developing FL and CCL.<br><br>ANALYSIS: The effect on FL, CCL and SM is assessed using linear mixed models. PA and acute SM are assessed by comparing data on days with and without GtB in a subsample of 900 pupils. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis.}, }
@article {pmid40272573, year = {2025}, author = {Wiemers, P and Graf, I and Addo, MM and Arck, PC and Diemert, A}, title = {Mothers and mosquitoes: climate change contributes to the spread of vector-borne pathogens posing a substantial threat to pregnant women.}, journal = {Seminars in immunopathology}, volume = {47}, number = {1}, pages = {25}, pmid = {40272573}, issn = {1863-2300}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; Pregnancy ; *Climate Change ; Animals ; *Vector Borne Diseases/epidemiology/transmission ; Mosquito Vectors ; *Culicidae ; *Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Infectious diseases have threatened individuals and societies since the dawn of humanity. Certain population groups, including pregnant women, young children and the elderly, are particularly vulnerable to severe infections. Over the past few centuries, advances in medical standards and the availability of vaccines have reduced infection-related mortality and morbidity rates in industrialized countries. However, the global rise in temperatures and increased precipitation present a new challenge, facilitating the broader distribution of disease vectors, such as mosquitoes, bugs and ticks, to higher altitudes and latitudes. Consequently, epidemic and pandemic outbreaks associated with these vectors, such as Zika, West Nile, dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and malaria, are increasingly impacting diverse populations. This review comprehensively examines how infections associated with climate change disproportionately affect the health and well-being of pregnant women and their unborn children. There has been a noticeable emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe. Consequently, we stress the importance of implementing measures that effectively protect pregnant women from these increasing infections globally and regionally. We advocate for initiatives to safeguard pregnant women from these emerging threats, beginning with enhanced education to raise awareness about the evolving risks this particularly vulnerable population faces.}, }
@article {pmid40270910, year = {2025}, author = {Ndhlovu, NT and Khuzwayo, TN and Minibayeva, FV and Beckett, RP}, title = {Subtropical lichens from the Afromontane can display rapid photosynthetic acclimation to simulated climate change.}, journal = {Photosynthetica}, volume = {63}, number = {1}, pages = {64-72}, pmid = {40270910}, issn = {1573-9058}, mesh = {*Lichens/physiology/radiation effects ; *Climate Change ; *Photosynthesis/physiology ; *Acclimatization/physiology ; Tropical Climate ; Electron Transport ; }, abstract = {Afromontane forests are an important part of the KwaZulu Natal region of southern Africa, having a distinctive flora with a high proportion of endemic species, and lichens are keystone members. Unlike other continental areas, KwaZulu Natal climate change is predicted to increase rainfall and cloudiness. In the present study, hydrated Afromontane lichens from both exposed and shaded microhabitats were given either constant [100 µmol(photon) m[-2] s[-1]] or fluctuating [0, 200, 0 µmol(photon) m[-2] s[-1]] light for 8 h a day for 3 d and changes monitored in nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ) and rates of photosynthetic electron transport. In sun but not shade collections, NPQ strongly increased following treatment with constant and fluctuating light. It seems likely that CO2 fixation may be reduced in moist thalli, and the increase in NPQ may reduce ROS formation during exposure to light while hydrated. Sun lichens can readily modify their NPQ in response to increased cloudiness and rainfall expected in KwaZulu Natal.}, }
@article {pmid40270803, year = {2025}, author = {Chen, L and Teng, H and Chen, S and Zhou, Y and Wan, D and Shi, Z}, title = {Future Habitat Shifts and Economic Implications for Ophiocordyceps sinensis Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e71327}, pmid = {40270803}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Ophiocordyceps sinensis is a vital and unique traditional medicine native to the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its adjacent regions. Its habitat has significantly diminished in recent years due to commercial harvesting and climate change. Although studies on the habitat of O. sinensis have been conducted, the impact of climate change on its future habitat and economy remains unclear. This study utilizes a comprehensive dataset on O. sinensis occurrences and employs a multi-model approach (constructed by Classification Tree Analysis [CTA], Flexible Discriminant Analysis [FDA], Generalized Boosted Model [GBM], Generalized Linear Models [GLM], Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines [MARS], Random Forest [RF], and MaxEnt models) to simulate its potential suitable habitat distribution on the TP under current and future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Through this modeling process, we examined the primary environmental factors influencing its distribution. Our results indicated that China produces 91.9% of the world's O. sinensis, with over 82% of this production concentrated in Sichuan, Tibet, and Qinghai Provinces. Altitude, warmest quarter precipitation, coldest quarter mean temperature, and herbaceous vegetation cover accounted for 90% of the variation in the distribution of O. sinensis. The suitable habitat was primarily concentrated at altitudes of 3500-4500 m above sea level and was expected to shift to higher altitudes in the future. The predicted habitats under different emission scenarios vary. Under the low emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), there was a slight increase in suitable habitat, with a 0.14% increase by the 2050s and a 0.65% increase by the 2100s. Conversely, under the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), there was a notable decrease in suitable habitat, with a projected 4.32% reduction by the 2050s and a 5.34% reduction by the 2100s. Additionally, the production of O. sinensis was expected to increase by 0.2%-5.2% under SSP1-2.6 and decrease by 0.5%-7.2% under SSP5-8.5 in the main production areas in China. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the conservation and sustainable harvest of O. sinensis, which is crucial for future conservation efforts, maintaining ecological balance, and supporting the sustainable socio-economic development of local communities.}, }
@article {pmid40270414, year = {2025}, author = {Schwaiger, A and Neururer, S and Hackl, WO and Taha, H and Schweitzer, M and Danler, M and Pfeifer, B}, title = {Climate Change, Vectors, and Public Health: Predicting Future Disease Risks in the Federal State Tyrol.}, journal = {Studies in health technology and informatics}, volume = {324}, number = {}, pages = {213-214}, doi = {10.3233/SHTI250190}, pmid = {40270414}, issn = {1879-8365}, mesh = {Austria/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Forecasting ; *Disease Vectors ; Animals ; }, abstract = {Population dynamics of vectors are strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation. We hypothesize that global warming and changes in precipitation patterns may lead to an increase in vector abundance and subsequent to a higher risk of specific vector borne disease cases in Austria.}, }
@article {pmid40269896, year = {2025}, author = {Atta, MHR and AbdELhay, ES and AbdELhay, IS and Amin, SM and El-Monshed, AH and Abdelaliem, SMF and Alabdullah, AAS and Eweida, RS}, title = {Effectiveness of a web-based educational program on climate change awareness, climate activism, and pro-environmental behavior among primary health care in rural areas: a randomized controlled trial.}, journal = {BMC nursing}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {449}, pmid = {40269896}, issn = {1472-6955}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change-related environmental impacts, such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, and hurricanes, can significantly impact individuals' physical and mental well-being. Therefore, leveraging nurses' awareness of this looming issue is crucial.<br><br>INTRODUCTION: Despite the correlation between climate change and health, research is scarce in nursing. Therefore, interactive web-based educational programs can effectively leverage nurses' knowledge of climate change by promoting participatory teaching and expanding their awareness through digital media.<br><br>AIMS: To assess the impact of web-based educational programs on improving climate change awareness, climate activism, and pro-environmental behavior of primary health care rural nurses.<br><br>METHOD: A randomized control trial design was adopted according to the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials guidelines (CONSORT). One hundred twenty-four nurses completed pre- and post-intervention assessments using the Climate Change/Global Warming Knowledge Questionnaire, Environmental Self-Efficacy Scale, and Pro-Environmental Behavior Scale. Then, they are equally divided into intervention and control groups.<br><br>RESULTS: Effect sizes for climate awareness showed substantial influence, with &#x3b7;&#xb2; values of 0.351 and 0.229; climate self-efficacy and Pro-Environmental Behavior PEBS demonstrated notable effect sizes (&#x3b7;&#xb2;=0.292 and 0.141, respectively).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Participants who received the web-based educational program demonstrated significant improvements in climate change knowledge, environmental self-efficacy, and pro-environmental behavior. These findings highlight the effectiveness of digital-based interventions in enhancing climate-related competencies among primary healthcare nurses. Future initiatives should explore the scalability of such programs to broader healthcare settings to further promote climate literacy and sustainable practices.<br><br>IMPLICATION FOR NURSING: Providing primary care nurses working in rural areas with comprehensive knowledge can enable nurse managers to advocate for environmental sustainability and stewardship, promoting community health resilience.<br><br>Implementing a web-based educational program related to climate change will enable policymakers and decision-makers to ensure that primary care nurses in rural areas optimally contribute to climate advocacy and environmental health initiatives. This approach aligns with the World Health Organization's Global Strategic Directions for Nursing and Midwifery 2021-2025, which aims to achieve global health goals.<br><br>TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT: 06196476.}, }
@article {pmid40269688, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, WD and Liu, YY and Li, MM and Du, H and Huang, KY and Feng, YY and Ma, CW and Wei, XX and Wang, XQ and Ran, JH}, title = {Decoding endosperm endophytes in Pinus armandi: a crucial indicator for host response to climate change.}, journal = {BMC microbiology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {239}, pmid = {40269688}, issn = {1471-2180}, support = {2022YFF130170//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; XDA23080000//the Strategic Priority Research Program, CAS/ ; 31770238//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2012070//Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS/ ; }, mesh = {*Endophytes/genetics/classification/isolation &amp; purification/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Pinus/microbiology ; *Endosperm/microbiology ; Phylogeny ; China ; Microbiota ; Transcriptome ; Biodiversity ; Ascomycota/genetics/classification/isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Plant-associated microorganisms significantly contribute to plant survival in diverse environments. However, limited information is available regarding the involvement of endophytes in responding to climate change and their potential to enhance host plants' adaptation to future environmental shifts. Pinus armandi, endemic to China and widely distributed in climate-sensitive regions, serves as an ideal subject for investigating microbiome interactions that assist host plants in climate change response. Despite this, a comprehensive understanding of the diversity, community composition, and factors influencing endosperm endophytes in P. armandi, as well as the response of these endophytes to climate change, remains elusive.<br><br>RESULTS: In this study, transcriptome data from 55 P. armandi samples from 13 populations were analyzed to evaluate the composition and diversity of active endosperm endophytes and predict their response to future climate change. The results revealed variations in community composition, phylogenetic diversity, and interaction network between the northern and southern groups. Temperature and precipitation correlated with endosperm endophytic species richness and diversity. Under projected future climate conditions, the northern group exhibits greater genomic vulnerability and anticipates increased threats, reflecting a corresponding trend in endosperm endophytes, particularly within the Ascomycota community.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The consistent threat trend from climate change impacting both hosts and endophytes emphasizes the potential importance of host-related fungi as crucial indicators for predicting future climate impacts. Meanwhile, this study establishes an initial framework for exploring host-microbial interactions within the context of climate warming and provides valuable insights for studies related to plant protection.}, }
@article {pmid40269388, year = {2025}, author = {Hamid, T and Arif, A and Khalid, FM}, title = {Climate change and surgical care in Pakistan: An understudied relation.}, journal = {JPMA. The Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association}, volume = {75}, number = {4}, pages = {677}, doi = {10.47391/JPMA.21668}, pmid = {40269388}, issn = {0030-9982}, }
@article {pmid40268654, year = {2025}, author = {Qu, J and Qin, G and Huang, H and Ma, S and Lin, Q and Zhang, Z and Yin, J}, title = {Corrigendum to "Redistribution of vocal snapping shrimps under climate change" [Sci. Total. Environ. 954 (2024) 176191].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {179463}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179463}, pmid = {40268654}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid40268327, year = {2025}, author = {Albert, PR and Marotel, M and Doré, C and Auer, RC}, title = {Greening the lab: fighting climate change to enhance mental health.}, journal = {Journal of psychiatry &amp; neuroscience : JPN}, volume = {50}, number = {2}, pages = {E142-E144}, doi = {10.1503/jpn.250040}, pmid = {40268327}, issn = {1488-2434}, }
@article {pmid40268042, year = {2025}, author = {Bank, MS and Zayas, ZP and Somerset, V and Martin, LG and Horvat, M}, title = {Climate change, mercury pollution, and global ecology.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {126284}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2025.126284}, pmid = {40268042}, issn = {1873-6424}, }
@article {pmid40267795, year = {2025}, author = {Ji, Q and Wang, X and Shi, A and Cao, M and Lian, J and He, J and Guo, H and Li, X and Zhang, Z and Yu, J and Ye, J}, title = {Insights into the potential enhanced cadmium toxicity in marine fish Centroprostis striata in the context of global warming.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {216}, number = {}, pages = {118013}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118013}, pmid = {40267795}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {Cadmium (Cd[2+]), a pollutant from industrial activities, poses significant health risks to aquatic organisms, especially fish. Combined with global warming, its impact on marine ecosystems requires further investigation. This research examined the combined toxic effects of Cd[2+] exposure and heat stress on the liver of black sea bass (Centropristis striata). Fish were subjected to varying Cd[2+] concentrations (0, 0.83, and 6.4 mg/L) and temperatures (17 and 30 °C). Results indicated that heat stress markedly augmented Cd[2+] bioaccumulation in the liver, exacerbating hepatotoxicity. Histological analysis revealed more severe liver damage under combined exposure than Cd[2+] alone. Furthermore, a significant decrease in antioxidant enzyme activities (T-AOC, SOD, CAT, GSH) and a concomitant increase in oxidative stress marker (MDA) levels indicated enhanced oxidative stress. The co-exposure resulted in aberrant levels of apoptotic genes (e.g., P53, Bax etc.), disrupting the liver apoptotic process, as confirmed by TUNEL staining. Additionally, elevated TNF-α, IL-6, and HSP90 mRNA expression, coupled with decreased TGF-β levels, suggested an inflammatory response. These findings demonstrate that heat stress exacerbates Cd[2+] toxicity in fish, highlighting a synergistic interaction between the two stressors. This research provides insights for managing heavy metal pollution under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid40266805, year = {2025}, author = {Khan, TU and Luan, X and Nabi, G and Raza, MF and Iqbal, A and Khan, SN and Hu, H}, title = {Forecasting the Impact of Climate Change on Apis dorsata (Fabricius, 1793) Habitat and Distribution in Pakistan.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects16030289}, pmid = {40266805}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {(no. 31901109)//This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; (2022GDASZH-2022010105, 2022GDASZH-2022010101)//GDAS Special Project of Science and Technology Development/ ; (54000022T000000071200, 54000024210200021038)//Dynamic Monitoring of Distribution, Quantity and Activity of Typical Large and Medium-sized Mammals in the Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has led to global biodiversity loss, severely impacting all species, including essential pollinators like bees, which are highly sensitive to environmental changes. Like other bee species, A. dorsata is also not immune to climate change. This study evaluated the habitat suitability of A. dorsata under climate change in Pakistan by utilizing two years of occurrence and distribution data to develop a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model for forecasting current and future habitat distribution. Future habitat projections for 2050 and 2070 were based on two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) using the CNRM-CM6-1 and EPI-ESM1-2-HR-1 global circulation models. Eight bioclimatic variables (Bio1, Bio4, Bio5, Bio8, Bio10, Bio12, Bio18, and Bio19) were selected for modeling, and among the selected variables, the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18) showed major contributions to the model building and strongest influence on habitat of A. dorsata. The model estimated 23% of our study area as a suitable habitat for A. dorsata under current climatic conditions, comprising 150,975 km[2] of moderately suitable and 49,792 km[2] of highly suitable regions. For future climatic scenarios, our model projected significant habitat loss for A. dorsata with a shrinkage and shift towards northern, higher-altitude regions, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Himalayan foothills. Habitat projections under the extreme climatic scenario (SSP585) are particularly alarming, indicating a substantial loss of the suitable habitat for the A. dorsata of 40% under CNRM-CM6-1 and 79% for EPI-ESM1-2-HR-1 for the 2070 time period. This study emphasizes the critical need for conservation efforts to protect A. dorsata and highlights the species' role in pollination and supporting the apiculture industry in Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid40266773, year = {2025}, author = {DeGrandi-Hoffman, G and Graham, H and Corby-Harris, V and Chambers, M and Watkins-deJong, E and Ihle, K and Bilodeau, L}, title = {Adapting Overwintering Honey Bee (Apis mellifera L.) Colony Management in Response to Warmer Fall Temperatures Associated with Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects16030266}, pmid = {40266773}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {60-2022-2-007//USDA-APHIS/ ; }, abstract = {Management strategies are needed that mitigate the effects of climate change on honey bee colony losses. Extended periods of warmer fall temperatures prolong periods of honey bee flight and parasitic Varroa mite immigration into colonies. We report on a management strategy using Varroa-resistant Russian honey bees overwintered in indoor cold storage facilities, and compare colony survival and growth with that of unselected European bees. Fat body metrics that are key to overwintering survival were also measured in Russian and unselected bees. Comparisons between overwintering Russian colonies in cold storage versus apiaries were also conducted. Russian and unselected colonies overwintered in cold storage had comparable overwintering survival and percentages rented for almond pollination. However, more Russian colonies overwintered in cold storage were alive after almond bloom than those overwintered in apiaries. Fat bodies in Russian and unselected bees gained weight while in cold storage. Protein concentrations increased and lipids decreased. Changes in lipid concentrations were inversely related to the number of brood bees reared while in cold storage. Similar percentages of colonies overwintered in cold storage or outdoor apiaries survived and were rented for almond pollination. An economic analysis indicated that overwintering Russian colonies in cold storage costs less than in apiaries. Our study indicates that cold storage can be a viable management strategy for mitigating the effects of climate change on colony survival.}, }
@article {pmid40265822, year = {2025}, author = {Nguyen, HT and Khan, MAR and Nguyen, TT and Pham, NT and Nguyen, TTB and Anik, TR and Nguyen, MD and Li, M and Nguyen, KH and Ghosh, UK and Tran, LP and Ha, CV}, title = {Advancing Crop Resilience Through High-Throughput Phenotyping for Crop Improvement in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants14060907}, pmid = {40265822}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Climate change intensifies biotic and abiotic stresses, threatening global crop productivity. High-throughput phenotyping (HTP) technologies provide a non-destructive approach to monitor plant responses to environmental stresses, offering new opportunities for both crop stress resilience and breeding research. Innovations, such as hyperspectral imaging, unmanned aerial vehicles, and machine learning, enhance our ability to assess plant traits under various environmental stresses, including drought, salinity, extreme temperatures, and pest and disease infestations. These tools facilitate the identification of stress-tolerant genotypes within large segregating populations, improving selection efficiency for breeding programs. HTP can also play a vital role by accelerating genetic gain through precise trait evaluation for hybridization and genetic enhancement. However, challenges such as data standardization, phenotyping data management, high costs of HTP equipment, and the complexity of linking phenotypic observations to genetic improvements limit its broader application. Additionally, environmental variability and genotype-by-environment interactions complicate reliable trait selection. Despite these challenges, advancements in robotics, artificial intelligence, and automation are improving the precision and scalability of phenotypic data analyses. This review critically examines the dual role of HTP in assessment of plant stress tolerance and crop performance, highlighting both its transformative potential and existing limitations. By addressing key challenges and leveraging technological advancements, HTP can significantly enhance genetic research, including trait discovery, parental selection, and hybridization scheme optimization. While current methodologies still face constraints in fully translating phenotypic insights into practical breeding applications, continuous innovation in high-throughput precision phenotyping holds promise for revolutionizing crop resilience and ensuring sustainable agricultural production in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid40265755, year = {2025}, author = {Solakis-Tena, A and Hidalgo-Triana, N and Boynton, R and Thorne, JH}, title = {Phenological Shifts Since 1830 in 29 Native Plant Species of California and Their Responses to Historical Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants14060843}, pmid = {40265755}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Climate change is affecting Mediterranean climate regions, such as California. Retrospective phenological studies are a useful tool to track biological response to these impacts through the use of herbarium-preserved specimens. We used data from more than 12,000 herbarium specimens of 29 dominant native plant species that are characteristic of 12 broadly distributed vegetation types to investigate phenological patterns in response to climate change. We analyzed the trends of four phenophases: preflowering (FBF), flowering (F), fruiting (FS) and growth (DVG), over time (from 1830 to 2023) and through changes in climate variables (from 1896 to 2023). We also examined these trends within California's 10 ecoregions. Among the four phenophases, the strongest response was found in the timing of flowering, which showed an advance in 28 species. Furthermore, 21 species showed sequencing in the advance of two or more phenophases. We highlight the advances found over temperature variables: 10 in FBF, 28 in F, 17 in FS and 18 in DVG. Diverse and less-consistent results were found for water-related variables with 15 species advancing and 11 delaying various phenophases in response to decreasing precipitation and increasing evapotranspiration. Jepson ecoregions displayed a more pronounced advance in F related to time and mean annual temperature in the three of the southern regions compared to the northern ones. This study underscores the role of temperature in driving phenological change, demonstrating how rising temperatures have predominantly advanced phenophase timing. These findings highlight potential threats, including risks of climatic, ecological, and biological imbalances.}, }
@article {pmid40264224, year = {2025}, author = {Schneider, S and Reinmuth, J and Leer, S}, title = {An unbeatable opponent? Coaches' perspectives on the impact of climate change in outdoor sports.}, journal = {BMC sports science, medicine &amp; rehabilitation}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {89}, pmid = {40264224}, issn = {2052-1847}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Athletes in outdoor sports particularly experience several consequences of climate change.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To take up the experiences and expectations of coaches in outdoor sports regarding climate-related health risks in sport and to systematize them.<br><br>METHODS: This nationwide, cross-sectional study was conducted among adult outdoor sports coaches from the ten largest outdoor sports associations in Germany. Their experiences with climate-related changes where were collected and qualitative content analysis was conducted.<br><br>RESULTS: Out of 1,771 participating coaches, the content-analytical evaluation resulted in eight disjointed topics. These comprise heat-related risks, accident and injury risks, UV-related risks, respiratory risks, infection risks, mental risks and also positive effects of climate change. Besides, statements of respondents not expecting any significant changes due to climate change were recorded.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In the course of climate change, sport-specific risks will continue to increase and especially the risk setting of outdoor sports will be confronted to them. In order to be able to practice sports successfully and safely in the future, the study results emphasize the necessity to develop comprehensive, flexible and cost-effective prevention concepts for climate adaptation in sports.<br><br>CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Clinical trial number: The study protocol was pre-registered with the German Clinical Trials Registry (registration number DRKS00027815) on January 18, 2022 (https://drks.de/search/de/trial/DRKS00027815).}, }
@article {pmid40263334, year = {2025}, author = {Lee, ASG and Kirkland, K and Stanley, SK and Robinson, A and Leviston, Z and Walker, I}, title = {A thematic analysis of what Australians state would change their minds on climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {12989}, pmid = {40263334}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Australia ; Female ; Male ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Public Opinion ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Australasian People ; }, abstract = {What do Australians believe would change their current opinions about climate change? In this study, we used audience segmentation analysis through the Six Americas Short Survey to identify groups of climate opinion holders within a representative sample of Australians. We had 4857 participants tell us what it would take to change their current opinions about climate change and leveraged OpenAI's Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT) to identify the presence or absence of themes (Nothing, Evidence and Information, Trusted Sources, Action, and Unsure) and subthemes in their responses. GPT performed at near-human levels, proving to be a highly useful tool for thematic analysis. Our analyses revealed that strong climate denialists and believers tended to display greater dogmatism, with increased likelihood of stating that nothing would change their mind and lower likelihood of being unsure. Results also highlighted the need for diverse forms of evidence and information and the importance of trusted sources of information across audience segments. These findings provide support for GPT's utility in managing large datasets in the social sciences and offer participant-informed insights into climate opinion change.}, }
@article {pmid40262503, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, Z and Liu, Y and He, L}, title = {Impacts of dams and reservoirs on riparian vegetation in China under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {383}, number = {}, pages = {125403}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125403}, pmid = {40262503}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {China has built over 100,000 dams by 2020, with the total capacity of reservoirs reaching 989 billion cubic meters. The effects of reservoirs on the ecological environment of riparian zones need thorough study, yet current research covers only a small portion of China's completed dams. This study uses fixed effects vector decomposition and structural equation modeling to quantify the response of riparian vegetation to reservoirs near 921 completed dams in China, within a range of 1-10 km. The results reveal spatial variations in the response of vegetation to dam construction. Within a 1 km of the reservoir, riparian vegetation is negatively affected by habitat fragmentation and altered hydrological conditions (Coeff -0.14, P < 0.05). However, with increasing distance from the reservoirs, the effects diminish (P > 0.05, 2-5 km) or even become positive (Coeff > 0, P < 0.05, 5-10 km). Within the 1-10 km buffers, the negative effects of dams and reservoirs on riparian vegetation through climate and soil also show a distance decay (P < 0.05). This study provides new evidence of the long-term effects of hydraulic engineering development on riparian vegetation and explores the pathways and spatial scope of these impacts, which has important implications for hydropower planning and river ecosystem management.}, }
@article {pmid40261992, year = {2025}, author = {Burton, GA and Rohr, JR}, title = {A Plea for Cumulative Stressor Risk Assessments in Light of Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.5c02733}, pmid = {40261992}, issn = {1520-5851}, }
@article {pmid40261470, year = {2025}, author = {Johnson, S and Sims, T and Obichere, E and McWhorter, J and Edwards, J and Lewis, A and Green, HN}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Cancer Surgery and Healthcare Delivery: A Review of Environmental and Surgical Challenges.}, journal = {Cancer causes &amp; control : CCC}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40261470}, issn = {1573-7225}, abstract = {PURPOSE: More than 10 million annual global cancer deaths are exacerbated by the impact of climate change and environmental determinants of health. This brief report provides a summary of and mitigating recommendations for the complex intersection between climate change and surgical cancer care.<br><br>METHODS: A review of scientific literature from the last 10&#xa0;years was conducted to assess the current impact of climate change on cancer care with a focus on surgical interventions. Studies with an impact score of 6 or higher and the keywords of climate change, extreme weather, cancer care, and surgery were reviewed. After removing duplicates and excluded studies, 30 studies remained and were reviewed by two reviewers.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate-related factors impacting surgical care result in a myriad of healthcare impacts, including disruption of services, impact on patient outcomes and survival, as well as an overburdening of hospital and surgical services.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change, including extreme weather events, threatens cancer surgical care and delivery by exacerbating comorbidities, disrupting healthcare systems, and increasing disparities in cancer care. Climate change is a burgeoning threat to global health, cancer care, patients, and communities.}, }
@article {pmid40261137, year = {2025}, author = {Dzau, VJ and Laitner, MH and Balatbat, CA and Taylor, S}, title = {Climate Change and Human Health - A Research Agenda for Action.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMsb2504599}, pmid = {40261137}, issn = {1533-4406}, }
@article {pmid40260152, year = {2025}, author = {Siddiolo, C and Rosso, A and Orecchio, G and Lo Valvo, M}, title = {Heat Nests: The Impact of Climate Change on Loggerhead Turtle (Caretta caretta) Nesting Distribution in Sicily (Italy).}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e71177}, pmid = {40260152}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {This study aims to update and establish a comprehensive list of nesting sites in Sicily and its minor islands, investigate the distribution and environmental suitability of the loggerhead sea turtles' nesting in Sicily using spatial distribution models (SDMs), and perform a gap analysis considering the protected area network in Sicily. Location: Sicily (Italy). Time period: 1979-2022. Data on Loggerhead seaturtle's nests were collected through several sources, including literature, monitoring records from WWF's Progetto Tartarughe, reports from the local fauna haunting, online articles, referrals on websites and social networks often related to monitoring activities. GIS was used to realize distribution maps. Bioclimatic indicators were downloaded through Copernicus Climate Change Service. Predictors were eventually projected on the WorldClim's dataset. Suitability distribution models (SDMs) were realized using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt software). Caretta caretta's nests distribution map and environmental suitability map were overlaid with the Natura 2000 sites map in Sicily. The results confirm that the main nesting areas are mostly concentrated along the southern and eastern coasts of Sicily, with increasing numbers observed over recent years. Additionally, global warming has made some beaches even more suitable along the north coast of the main island. The variable affecting this species the most is the Mean Temperature of the Coldest Quarter (Bio11). Overlaying nesting distribution and environmental suitability maps with Natura 2000 sites revealed significant portions of nests occurring outside protected areas, highlighting the need for expanded conservation efforts.The demographic increase of nesting events in Sicily is induced by a northward shift of the species distribution led by rising temperatures and probably due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40259114, year = {2025}, author = {Abdallah, N and Oluwaseun, OA}, title = {Socio-economic and production dynamics of Guinea fowl farming in Northern Ghana: insights into health management, challenges, and climate change impacts.}, journal = {Tropical animal health and production}, volume = {57}, number = {4}, pages = {181}, pmid = {40259114}, issn = {1573-7438}, mesh = {Ghana/epidemiology ; Animals ; *Animal Husbandry/methods/economics ; *Climate Change ; *Galliformes ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Poultry Diseases/epidemiology/economics/prevention &amp; control ; Male ; Female ; Farmers ; Humans ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; }, abstract = {Guinea fowl farming is vital to the livelihoods of rural communities in northern Ghana, yet its socio-economic and production dynamics remain underexplored, especially concerning health management and climate change. This study bridges this gap by investigating the socio-economic profiles, production practices, and health challenges of guinea fowl farmers in three towns in northern Ghana. A total of 137 farmers participated in structured interviews, with data analyzed using one-way and two-way ANOVA tests in SPSS version 21. The results highlighted variations in farmer demographics, with most being married, involved in crop farming, and having non-formal education. Guinea fowl production served for both sale and home consumption, with adult birds, keets, and young birds priced at > 69, 9-10, and 18-30 Cedis, respectively, while fertile and table eggs cost 4-4.5 Cedis. Flock sizes ranged from 10-60, predominantly of the Lavender breed. Farmers favored semi-intensive systems with traditional poultry shelters, supplemented feed, and pond or river serving as water sources. Disease symptoms, such as wing drooping, and high mortality rates were major challenges, with climate change exacerbating disease prevalence and management costs. These findings highlight the need for enhanced disease management, climate-resilient practices, and targeted interventions to ensure sustainable guinea fowl production and improved livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid40258732, year = {2025}, author = {Obeagu, EI and Isiko, I and Obeagu, GU}, title = {Climate change and HIV prevention: Towards sustainable solutions - a narrative review.}, journal = {Medicine}, volume = {104}, number = {16}, pages = {e42198}, pmid = {40258732}, issn = {1536-5964}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *HIV Infections/prevention &amp; control/epidemiology ; Global Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change, with its pervasive environmental, social, and economic impacts, is emerging as a significant factor influencing global health outcomes, including the prevention and management of HIV. The intersection of these 2 critical issues presents unique challenges, particularly in terms of increased vulnerability among populations, disruptions to healthcare infrastructure, and the exacerbation of social inequalities. This narrative review examines the multifaceted relationship between climate change and HIV prevention, emphasizing the need for sustainable solutions that integrate climate resilience into public health strategies. The review highlights how climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities that contribute to the spread and impact of HIV. Factors such as displacement and migration due to extreme weather events, food insecurity from altered climate patterns, and economic instability directly affect individuals' susceptibility to HIV and their access to necessary healthcare services. Additionally, the strain on healthcare infrastructure, resulting from climate-related damages and resource reallocations, further hinders effective HIV prevention and treatment efforts.}, }
@article {pmid40257809, year = {2025}, author = {Gredebäck, G and Astor, K and Ainamani, H and van den Berg, L and Forssman, L and Hall, J and Juvrud, J and Kenward, B and Mhizha, S and Wangchuk,  and Nyström, P}, title = {Infant Gaze Following Is Stable Across Markedly Different Cultures and Resilient to Family Adversities Associated With War and Climate Change.}, journal = {Psychological science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {9567976251331042}, doi = {10.1177/09567976251331042}, pmid = {40257809}, issn = {1467-9280}, abstract = {Gaze following in infancy allows triadic social interactions and a comprehension of other individuals and their surroundings. Despite its importance for early development, its ontology is debated, with theories suggesting that gaze following is either a universal core capacity or an experience-dependent learned behavior. A critical test of these theories among 809 nine-month-olds from Africa (Uganda and Zimbabwe), Europe (Sweden), and Asia (Bhutan) demonstrated that infants follow gaze to a similar degree regardless of environmental factors such as culture, maternal well-being (postpartum depression, well-being), or traumatic family events (related to war and/or climate change). These findings suggest that gaze following may be a universal, experience-expectant process that is resilient to adversity and similar across a wide range of human experiences-a core foundation for social development.}, }
@article {pmid40257179, year = {2025}, author = {Cruz-Gispert, A and García-Del-Amo, D and Junqueira, AB and Schunko, C and Álvarez-Fernández, S and Reyes-García, V}, title = {Indigenous peoples and local community reports of climate change impacts on biodiversity.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e70033}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.70033}, pmid = {40257179}, issn = {1523-1739}, support = {CEX2019-000940-M//Mar&#xed;a de Maeztu Unit of Excellence: Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades, Gobierno de Espa&#xf1;a/ ; FP7-771056-LICCI//FP7 Ideas: European Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on biodiversity have been primarily studied through ecological research methods, largely ignoring other knowledge systems. Indigenous and local knowledge systems include rich observations of changes in biodiversity that can inform climate change adaptation planning and environmental stewardship. We reviewed literature documenting local observations of climate change impacts on biodiversity reported by Indigenous peoples and local communities. We examined whether reported impacts varied across taxa, geographic regions, and people's main livelihood activities and assessed whether local reports followed geographic and taxonomic patterns found in the natural sciences literature. We also compared taxa reportedly affected by climate change by Indigenous peoples and local communities and by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. Our analyses included 2452 observations of climate change impacts on 1715 taxa from 203 documents describing 291 case studies. Changes in taxon abundance, phenotype, phenology, and distribution were widely reported, and most climate change impacts were reported for plants, fishes, and mammals. Reported impacts differed by geographic region and by livelihood, and most species reported as affected by climate change by Indigenous peoples and local communities were not considered threatened by climate change by the IUCN. Our results showed that Indigenous and local knowledge systems can contribute to a more complete understanding of climate change impacts on biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid40256266, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, J and Jiang, F and Gao, H and Gu, H and Song, P and Zhang, T}, title = {Dynamics of Suitable Habitats for Typical Predators and Prey on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Driven by Climate Change: A Case Study of Tibetan Fox, Red Fox, and Plateau Pika.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e71295}, pmid = {40256266}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a biodiversity hotspot highly sensitive to global climate change. The Tibetan fox (Vulpes ferrilata), red fox (V. vulpes), and plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae) are key species of the plateau, serving as typical representatives of predators and prey among its diverse wildlife. To evaluate the impact of climate change, we employed the maximum entropy model with 1237 distribution points and various environmental variables to predict habitat suitability under three global climate models and four representative concentration pathways for the 2050s and 2070s. The results revealed that the suitable habitats for two predators were projected to decline, with reductions ranging from 0.23% to 5.64% and 4.12% to 6.63%, respectively, with most reductions occurring in the central-western and southern regions of the QTP. The decline was anticipated to be more pronounced in the 2070s compared to the 2050s. Conversely, the suitable habitat for prey species, plateau pikas, was expected to experience only a slight decrease (0.45%-0.98%) under scenarios of moderate greenhouse gas emissions. Habitat centroid analyses indicated a consistent northward migration of suitable areas for both predators and prey in response to climate change on the QTP. Furthermore, future overlap analysis between predator and prey habitats showed uncertain trends; however, the overlap between the Tibetan fox and Plateau pika habitats was notably lower compared to that of the red fox and plateau pika habitats. Regarding the current conservation efforts of both predators and prey, evaluation results highlighted the critical significant role of Sanjiangyuan National Park, China's first national park located in Qinghai Province, and Qiangtang Nature Reserve in Xizang as critical areas for the protection of these species on the QTP in China. The findings and methodologies of this research hold significant reference value for the conservation of predator and prey habitats in other global biodiversity hotspots.}, }
@article {pmid40256144, year = {2025}, author = {Hassan, MM and Maruf, MFI and Nohor, N and Boitchi, AB}, title = {Factors Determining Bangladeshi University Students' Perception, Knowledge and Attitude About Climate Change: A Cross-Sectional Study.}, journal = {Health science reports}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {e70722}, pmid = {40256144}, issn = {2398-8835}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIM: Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather patterns and is one of the greatest global threats. Bangladesh is among the most vulnerable countries, facing severe climate-induced events. Understanding climate change is crucial for identifying risks, developing adaptation strategies, and mitigating long-term impacts. University students, as future leaders, play a vital role in addressing climate change. This study assesses their knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of climate change in Bangladesh.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among students from four universities in Bangladesh. A total of 1500 participants were selected based on inclusion criteria. Descriptive statistics summarized demographic characteristics, and perception regarding climate change, while univariate and multivariate logistic regression identified factors associated with good knowledge and positive attitudes.<br><br>RESULTS: Overall, 73% of students had good knowledge of climate change, while 27% demonstrated poor knowledge. A majority (84%) expressed a positive attitude toward climate change initiatives. Participants correctly identified key climate-related events in Bangladesh, such as increased cyclones, tidal waves, and salinity. However, awareness of rising snakebite incidents and related deaths was low, with many perceiving no change or disagreeing with their significance. Factors associated with good knowledge included gender, source of information, and mother's education. Gender, source of information, and both parents' education were associated with positive attitudes among the participants.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study provides baseline evidence on climate change knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions among Bangladeshi university students. To our knowledge, it is the first comprehensive assessment of this issue in this population. Given their strong awareness and positive attitudes, targeted initiatives can harness students' potential in climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, contributing to long-term solutions for Bangladesh's climate challenges.}, }
@article {pmid40256129, year = {2025}, author = {Imberti, L and Tiecco, G and Logiudice, J and Castelli, F and Quiros-Roldan, E}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on the Immune System: A Narrative Review.}, journal = {Health science reports}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {e70627}, pmid = {40256129}, issn = {2398-8835}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Human activities have greatly influenced global temperatures, leading to climate change and global warming. This narrative review aims to explore the relationship between climate change and the immune system, focusing on how environmental stressors can affect immune regulation, leading to both hyperactivity and suppression.<br><br>METHODS: A comprehensive search was conducted in PubMed and Google Scholar for peer-reviewed studies published up to June 2024. The search terms included "climate change," "human health," "infection," "immunity," and "disease." Inclusion criteria were based on relevance, originality, and accessibility.<br><br>RESULTS: Exposure to elevated temperatures can significantly impair immune system cells, leading to an overproduction of signaling molecules that promote inflammation. Temperature fluctuations have been shown to influence various aspects of the adaptive immune response, including immune cell mobilization, antigen processing and presentation, lymphocyte trafficking and activation, and the functionality of B and T cells. Notably, some research suggests that heat stress negatively impacts B lymphocyte differentiation, replication, and proportion, resulting in decreased immunoglobulin and cytokine production, and contributing to immunosuppression. Additionally, climate change-related exposures can compromise epithelial barriers in the skin, lungs, and gut, leading to microbial dysbiosis, and immune dysregulation. Furthermore, environmental factors such as temperature variations, humidity, and air pollutant levels may exacerbate the prevalence of infectious diseases, including measles and HIV, with varying impacts on acute, chronic, and latent infections, further contributing to immune variability.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change, particularly increased temperatures, significantly impacts immune system function, leading to both heightened inflammatory responses, and immunosuppression. Future research should focus on developing comprehensive and sustainable management strategies to enhance health resilience in the face of ongoing climatic changes.}, }
@article {pmid40254765, year = {2025}, author = {Calabria, RA}, title = {An introduction to climate change for nurses.}, journal = {Nursing}, volume = {55}, number = {5}, pages = {45-48}, doi = {10.1097/NSG.0000000000000181}, pmid = {40254765}, issn = {1538-8689}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Curriculum ; Education, Nursing ; }, abstract = {Climate change and sustainability represent new areas of nursing content for many nurses. Health-focused interventions are needed to address the health of the planet and mitigate the health impacts of climate change. However, research shows that nursing curricula and nurses' knowledge related to climate change are limited. This article discusses climate change and its health impacts across 10 categories and provides recommendations for personal and organizational sustainability practices.}, }
@article {pmid40254236, year = {2025}, author = {Sprague, NL and Scott, SN and Mehranbod, CA and Sachs, AL and Ekenga, CC and Rundle, AG and Branas, CC and Factor-Litvak, P}, title = {Changing Degrees: a weight-of-evidence scoping review examining the impact of childhood exposures to climate change on educational outcomes.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {121639}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.121639}, pmid = {40254236}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Climate change negatively impacts several dimensions of education (including student achievement, educational infrastructure, school readiness, and other factors). Further, climate change may act as a threat multiplier for existing educational disparities. While theory links climate change to educational disparities, empirical research remains scarce and there is no current weight-of-evidence review examining climate change and education. This weight of evidence scoping review evaluates the current state of evidence assessing the effect of climate change exposures on aspects of education for youth. Studies were categorized and evaluated using the CHANGE (Climate Health ANalysis Grading Evaluation) tool for weight-of-evidence reviews and adaptions of frameworks developed for previous systematic reviews on associations between climate change and education. Thirty-one studies met review criteria and were grouped into five thematic categories based on reported outcomes: Student Learning in the Humanities, Student Learning in Math and Science, Executive Function and Cognition, Attendance and School Closures, and Educational Advancement Milestones. All studies in this review suggest that climate change exposures during childhood negatively impact aspects of education; however, in some instances the mechanisms and ways in which these climate change exposures impacted aspects of education varied by country or geographic setting. The geographic distribution of studies revealed that the United States accounted for the highest number of studies (n = 6), followed by China, India, Nigeria, Cameroon, and South Africa (n = 2 each), with 18 other countries contributing only one study each, highlighting disparities in global research coverage. Twelve of the studies included in this review examined the concept of climate change as a threat multiplier of educational disparities, but no study had it as a primary focus. Future research directions include extending studies beyond traditional test metrics, integrating diverse academic disciplines, exploring a broader array of geographic regions, delving into place-specific nuances, incorporating indigenous and community knowledge, and focusing explicitly on climate change as a threat multiplier for educational disparities.}, }
@article {pmid40253969, year = {2025}, author = {Achouri, H and Derguini, A and Idres, T and Selamoglu, Z and Hamadi, NB and Jalouli, M and Elfalleh, W and Bendif, H and Badraoui, R and Boufahja, F and Dellali, M}, title = {Impact of climate change on the toxicity of bisphenol A in Mytilus galloprovincialis and assessment of phycoremediation using Nannochloropsis salina via a multi-biomarker strategy and modeling.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {216}, number = {}, pages = {118010}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118010}, pmid = {40253969}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {In the current study, the mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis, exposed to four varying temperatures (17, 20, 23, and 26 °C), were contaminated with 50 μg/L of bisphenol A both with and without Nannochloropsis salina. The toxicity evaluation is determined by quantifying various biomarkers related to oxidative stress, neurotoxicity, and cellular damage. The key findings indicate that the toxicity of bisphenol A is heightened by rising temperature. The impact of bisphenol A is most evident at 26 °C, leading to excessive production of reactive oxygen species, depletion of non-enzymatic antioxidants, and activation of antioxidant enzymes (catalase and glutathione-S-transferase). The rise in malondialdehyde levels confirms lipid peroxidation caused by bisphenol A and intensified by thermal stress. These findings have been supported by strong molecular interactions between bisphenol A and lectin mytilec apo-form and proximal thread matrix protein 1 from M. galloprovincialis following the computational modeling assay. The incorporation of N. salina as a food additive helped, firstly, to mitigate the stress effects and, secondly, resulted in a noticeable enhancement of oxidative balance and filtration ability, along with decreased lipid peroxidation.}, }
@article {pmid40253290, year = {2025}, author = {Su, Y and Chen, S and Sui, Y and Li, X and Xu, J and Che, X and Xie, T and Chen, J and Sheng, Y and Feng, M and Chen, F}, title = {Gaining water bodies by climate change benefits water crisis mitigation in central Asia.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2025.03.053}, pmid = {40253290}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {Central Asia (CA) faces a severe water crisis exemplified by the shrinking Aral Sea. However, little is known about the entire region, particularly the numerous small water bodies that are vulnerable to climate change yet vital for regional sustainability. We examined water bodies as small as 0.0045 km[2] across CA from 1992 to 2020, identifying 66,215 water bodies in 2020, 82.2% of which were previously unstudied. In contrast to the well-documented decline of the Aral Sea, other water bodies have expanded by 10.7% (8714.3 km[2]), with a net gain of 15,831 lakes since 1992. These findings challenge the perception of a drying CA and provide evidence of a warm-wet climate trend, which is redistributing water resources and creating opportunities for transforming water management to address the long-standing water crisis in CA.}, }
@article {pmid40253206, year = {2025}, author = {Krah, CY and Burke, DT and Bahramian, M and Hynds, P and Priyadarshini, A}, title = {Quantifying metabolic food waste and associated global warming potential attributable to overweight and obese adults in a temperate high-income region.}, journal = {Food research international (Ottawa, Ont.)}, volume = {209}, number = {}, pages = {116309}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodres.2025.116309}, pmid = {40253206}, issn = {1873-7145}, mesh = {Humans ; Adult ; Male ; Female ; Ireland/epidemiology ; *Obesity/epidemiology ; *Overweight/epidemiology ; *Global Warming ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Energy Intake ; *Food ; Food Loss and Waste ; }, abstract = {Traditional discussions on food waste often excludes metabolic food waste (MFW), which occurs when individuals consume food beyond their caloric needs. This study is the first to quantify MFW among adults with excess body weight (overweight and obese) in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and globally the first to explore its socioeconomic and health-related predictors. Using an online food frequency questionnaire, MFW was estimated via the excess energy intake method, and Generalized Linear Model (GLM) was applied to identify significant predictors of MFW volumes. Median per capita MFW was 121.84 kg/year, with potatoes being the most wasted food item (23.4 kg/year). Significant predictors of higher MFW included higher body weight (B = 0.024, p < 0.001), male gender (B = -0.812, p < 0.001), younger age (25-34 years) (B = 0.151, p = 0.035), omnivorous diets (B = 0.277, p < 0.001), and higher grocery shopping frequency (B = 0.032, p < 0.001). Conversely, individuals who prioritized price over taste in food purchases exhibited significantly lower MFW volumes (B = -0.137, p = 0.025). The annual total volumes of MFW (0.3 Mt./yr) generated by excess body weight adults in ROI is also responsible for 1.5 Mt. CO2e/yr emissions nationally. These findings position MFW as a critical yet underexplored dimension of food waste with profound implications for public health and environmental policies, aligning with SDGs 2 (Zero Hunger), 3 (Good Health and Well-being), and 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).}, }
@article {pmid40252687, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, D and Kim, BF and Nachman, KE and Chiger, AA and Herbstman, J and Loladze, I and Zhao, FJ and Chen, C and Gao, A and Zhu, Y and Li, F and Shen, RF and Yan, X and Zhang, J and Cai, C and Song, L and Shen, M and Ma, C and Yang, X and Zhou, W and Wang, Y and Tang, H and Jiang, Y and Ding, Y and Liu, W and Sun, J and Zhou, W and Navas-Acien, A and Zhu, C and Ziska, LH}, title = {Impact of climate change on arsenic concentrations in paddy rice and the associated dietary health risks in Asia: an experimental and modelling study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00055-5}, pmid = {40252687}, issn = {2542-5196}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Rising global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and surface temperatures could negatively affect rice yields and nutritional quality; however, their effects on arsenic accumulation in paddy rice have not been assessed concurrently. We aimed to assess the impact of increases in CO2 and temperature (individually and in combination) on arsenic concentrations in rice, characterise soil properties that might influence arsenic uptake, and model the associated risks of cancer and other health outcomes due to increased arsenic exposure.<br><br>METHODS: For this modelling study we performed in-situ multi-varietal trials using Free-Air CO2 Enrichment platforms with and without supplemental temperature to examine the bioaccumulation of arsenic in paddy rice and the underlying biogeochemical mechanisms from 2014 to 2023. We modelled dietary inorganic arsenic exposure and the associated risks of cancer and non-cancer health outcomes via rice consumption for seven of the leading rice-consuming countries in east and southeast Asia.<br><br>FINDINGS: Concomitant increases in CO2 and temperature resulted in a synergistic increase of inorganic arsenic in rice grain. The observed increase is likely to be related to changes in soil biogeochemistry that favoured reduced arsenic species. Modelled consumption of rice under these conditions resulted in projected increases in inorganic arsenic exposure and lifetime cancer and health risks for multiple Asian countries by 2050.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Inorganic arsenic exposure and the associated health consequences might increase in rice grain grown in flooded systems with mid-century climate projections. The current assessment reinforces the urgent need for mitigation of arsenic exposure in rice relative to near-term climate change.<br><br>FUNDING: National Key Research and Development Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Key-Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province, China, Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Special Fund for Science and Technology from Nanjing Science and Technology Bureau, Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province, Erdos City Science and Technology Major Project, Science Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Special Fund for Science and Technology from Jiangsu Science and Technology Department, and "0-1" Original Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.}, }
@article {pmid40252680, year = {2025}, author = {Mohamed, M and Amin, S and Lever, E and Montini, A and Machida, K and Rajagopalan, S and Costello, A and McGushin, A and Jennings, B and Benoit, L and Saville, N and Walshe, N and Dalglish, SL and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Sterlini, S and Prost, A}, title = {Climate change and child wellbeing: a systematic evidence and gap map on impacts, mitigation, and adaptation.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e337-e346}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00061-0}, pmid = {40252680}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Adolescent ; *Child Health ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; *Child Welfare ; }, abstract = {We developed a systematic evidence and gap map (2014-24) to assess how climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation affect the wellbeing of children aged 0-18 years globally, and discussed findings with the Children in All Policies 2030 Youth Advisory Board. Health was the most researched child wellbeing domain (84%; 948 of 1127 studies), followed by education (15%; n=171), and food security and nutrition (14%; n=160). Research on children's agency and resilience, displacement, socioeconomic distress, and safety received less attention. Health research gaps included limited studies on vector-borne diseases, children's mental health beyond post-traumatic stress disorder, and health outcomes for children aged 5-18 years. Mitigation and adaptation research focused largely on educational (45%; 114 of 252 studies) and behavioural changes (31%; n=79), with gaps in the evaluation of financing, infrastructure, technology, clean energy, and policy actions. Youth advisory board members emphasised the importance of schools, social media, and intergenerational dialogue in driving climate action while protecting children's wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid40252679, year = {2025}, author = {Fisher, G and Smith, CL and Pagano, L and Spanos, S and Zurynski, Y and Braithwaite, J and , }, title = {Leveraging implementation science to solve the big problems: a scoping review of health system preparations for the effects of pandemics and climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e326-e336}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00056-7}, pmid = {40252679}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; *Delivery of Health Care/organization &amp; administration ; *Implementation Science ; }, abstract = {As the planet warms and pandemics become more common, health systems will face disruptions to both their service delivery and their workforce. To minimise the severity of these impacts, health systems will need to efficiently and rapidly prepare, adapt, and respond. Implementation science will be crucial to the success of these actions. However, the extent to which health systems are using implementation science to address the pressures of pandemics and climate change is not currently known. In this scoping review, we aimed to address this research gap. We reviewed empirical studies that used implementation science to adapt, respond to, or prepare a health-care setting for a pandemic or climate-related event, defining components of implementation science (as proposed by Nilsen [2015]) and implementation evaluation outcomes (as proposed by Proctor and colleagues [2011]). We found a growing evidence base describing the use of implementation science in health system responses to pandemics (n=54 studies), but a dearth of similar evidence for climate change (n=2 studies). Future research could benefit from applying the principles of implementation science in pre-implementation phases and purposefully planning for long-term, ongoing evaluations, which will facilitate tailored and sustainable health system responses to climate-related and pandemic events.}, }
@article {pmid40252677, year = {2025}, author = {Viennet, E and Dean, MM and Kircher, J and Leder, K and Guo, Y and Jones, P and Faddy, HM}, title = {Blood under pressure: how climate change threatens blood safety and supply chains.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e304-e313}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00051-8}, pmid = {40252677}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Blood Safety ; *Blood Banks ; }, abstract = {Climate change substantially threatens public health, including the blood supply chain, which is crucial for medical treatments such as surgeries, trauma care, and chronic disease management. Extreme weather events, vector-borne disease shifts, and temperature fluctuations can disrupt blood collection, testing, transport, and storage, threatening both the safety and sufficiency of blood products. Although studies have highlighted some connections between climate change, transfusion-transmissible infections, and blood safety, there remains a lack of comprehensive understanding of the climate effects on each supply chain stage. In this Personal View, we address the potential climate-driven challenges across the blood supply chain, from donor health to blood component stability, emphasising the importance of proactive measures. To protect the availability and safety of blood supplies in an evolving climate, further research and adaptive strategies are needed to build a resilient blood supply system that can withstand emerging climate-related disruptions.}, }
@article {pmid40252674, year = {2025}, author = {Wan, K and Gampe, D and Hajat, S}, title = {Disentangling the contributions of anthropogenic climate change, greenhouse gases, and aerosols to heat-related mortality in Great Britain: a climate change impact attribution study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e274-e283}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00050-6}, pmid = {40252674}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Gases/adverse effects/analysis ; Aerosols/adverse effects/analysis ; Humans ; *Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; *Anthropogenic Effects ; Climate Models ; *Mortality/trends ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic aerosols are a critical contributor to climate change and their net cooling effects can partially counter the warming effects of greenhouse gases, but they are rarely considered in health impact attribution studies of climate change. The aim of this study was to attribute heat-related deaths in Great Britain to anthropogenic climate change and individual forcings of greenhouse gases and aerosols.<br><br>METHODS: Using a special suite of climate simulations, past and future heat-related deaths in Great Britain attributable to the relative contributions of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings were estimated under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Empirical confidence intervals were quantified combining uncertainties from climate models and health risk functions.<br><br>FINDINGS: Emergence of heat-related mortality associated with anthropogenic climate change was partially counteracted by the cooling effects of aerosols, with the time of emergence being approximately four decades later compared with the greenhouse gas-only simulation. We estimate that around 700 annual heat-related deaths during 1961-1980 were masked by the cooling effects of aerosols. There was a sharp increase in heat-deaths between 1980 and 2020 due to the combined effects of greenhouse gas increases and large aerosol reductions. By the end of the 21st century, a 2-6-fold increase in heat-related deaths due to greenhouse gases is projected, with a negligible counteracting contribution of aerosols.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: In addition to greenhouse gases, the potential contributions of aerosols should be considered when assessing climate change risks and mitigation pathways. This is crucial due to their opposing temperature effects, diverging future emission trajectories, and varying geographical scales. Separate attribution of climate change impacts to the global effects of greenhouse gases and local effects of aerosols can enhance transparency and equity, and can inform loss and damage funding models. Such impact attribution assessments can help to optimise health co-benefits and prevent unintended negative consequences of environmental policies on heat-related and air pollution-related health outcomes.<br><br>FUNDING: Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health, National Institute for Health and Care Research.}, }
@article {pmid40252075, year = {2025}, author = {Epstein, TEG and Rorie, AC and Ramon, GD and Keswani, A and Bernstein, J and Codina, R and Codispoti, C and Craig, T and Dykewicz, M and Ferastraoaru, D and Katz, D and Kim, J and Larenas-Linnemann, D and Nanda, A and Nguyen, A and Anand, MP and Patterson, A and Ponda, P and Toskala, E and Wasan, AN}, title = {Impact of climate change on aerobiology, rhinitis, and allergen immunotherapy: Work Group Report from the Aerobiology, Rhinitis, Rhinosinusitis &amp; Ocular Allergy, and Immunotherapy, Allergen Standardization &amp; Allergy Diagnostics Committees of the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma &amp; Immunology.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2025.01.048}, pmid = {40252075}, issn = {1097-6825}, abstract = {Climate change is imposing a profound effect on health conditions triggered by environmental exposures. Climate change has affected aeroallergens in numerous ways, including: (1) changes in the vegetation microbiome distribution, (2) increases in C4 grasses globally, (3) increased occurrence of acute weather events, (4) increases in ambient temperature that amplify fungal spore concentration and pollen season duration, and (5) increased allergenicity of pollen and fungi due to exposure to higher levels of carbon dioxide, ozone, and diesel exhaust particles. In addition, greenhouse gases and air pollutants disrupt the epithelial barrier, trigger eosinophilic inflammation, and serve as adjuvants that stimulate IgE-mediated responses. All of these factors have influenced the prevalence and morbidity of allergic rhinitis, nonallergic rhinitis, and chronic rhinosinusitis. Data regarding changes in aeroallergen exposures due to climate change are lacking, and longitudinal sensitization data are rarely available. Allergists need to adapt diagnostic and treatment strategies to limit aeroallergen and air pollutant exposure and facilitate desensitization. Steps needed to address these challenges include: (1) expanding local measurement of pollen and fungal spores, (2) increasing the intensity of allergen avoidance measures, (3) addressing supply chain issues, and (4) promoting collaboration between allergists, insurance companies, aeroallergen manufacturers, and regulatory agencies.}, }
@article {pmid40251580, year = {2025}, author = {Wen, S and Chen, H and Su, J}, title = {Engaging health professionals in climate change: a cross-national study of psychological distance across 12 countries.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {1455}, pmid = {40251580}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {No. 22BXW069//General Program of the National Social Science Fund of China/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Personnel/psychology ; Male ; Female ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; Adult ; Qualitative Research ; Interviews as Topic ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Middle Aged ; Global Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Understanding the psychological distance (PD) of health professionals toward climate change is essential to promote effective climate action and informed health policy. While climate change poses a global health threat requiring urgent collaboration, limited cross-national research exists on health professionals' perspectives, particularly on how they perceive PD in relation to climate change.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide initial insights into how health professionals perceive climate change across different countries, focusing on key factors influencing PD, including personal experiences, uncertainty, perceptions, information environments, global interconnectedness, and climate-resilient infrastructure.<br><br>METHODS: This research employed an exploratory mixed-methods approach, combining descriptive surveys and in-depth semi-structured interviews with 18 early-to-mid-career health professionals from 12 countries. This design facilitated a nuanced exploration of the dimensions of PD-temporal, spatial, social, and uncertainty-related-by integrating quantitative data with qualitative insights to uncover emerging trends and hypotheses.<br><br>RESULTS: Findings reveal diverse perceptions of PD among health professionals, shaped by contextual factors such as exposure to extreme weather, information environments, and infrastructure development. These results challenge the oversimplified view that professionals in developing countries consistently perceive climate change impacts as more distant, underscoring the need for localized understandings of PD.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Assessing PD requires consideration of its diverse dimensions to inform effective climate-related behaviors and interventions. Tailored communication strategies reflecting unique national and regional contexts are essential to engage health professionals, enabling them to drive climate discourse and policy advocacy. This study highlights the potential of the early-to-mid-career health professionals in bridging the gap between public awareness and climate action. Their unique position enables them to drive long-term climate adaptation and policy implementation, fostering both global and localized solutions to climate challenges.}, }
@article {pmid40251324, year = {2025}, author = {Nogueira, LM and Sakka, R and Jovanovic, C}, title = {A recipe for a disaster: food, climate change, and cancer.}, journal = {Cancer causes &amp; control : CCC}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40251324}, issn = {1573-7225}, abstract = {Climate change impacts each step of the cancer control continuum, from prevention to survivorship. Importantly, several human activities driving greenhouse gas emissions also impact cancer risk and outcomes. Therefore, there is significant overlap between climate and cancer control solutions. This article describes the connection between the current food system, climate change, and cancer; one realm of human activities with enormous potential for modifications and implementation of win-win solutions.}, }
@article {pmid40251200, year = {2025}, author = {Turner, S and Hannaford, J and Barker, LJ and Suman, G and Killeen, A and Armitage, R and Chan, W and Davies, H and Griffin, A and Kumar, A and Dixon, H and Albuquerque, MTD and Almeida Ribeiro, N and Alvarez-Garreton, C and Amoussou, E and Arheimer, B and Asano, Y and Berezowski, T and Bodian, A and Boutaghane, H and Capell, R and Dakhaoui, H and Daňhelka, J and Do, HX and Ekkawatpanit, C and El Khalki, EM and Fleig, AK and Fonseca, R and Giraldo-Osorio, JD and Goula, ABT and Hanel, M and Horton, S and Kan, C and Kingston, DG and Laaha, G and Laugesen, R and Lopes, W and Mager, S and Rachdane, M and Markonis, Y and Medeiro, L and Midgley, G and Murphy, C and O'Connor, P and Pedersen, AI and Pham, HT and Piniewski, M and Renard, B and Saidi, ME and Schmocker-Fackel, P and Stahl, K and Thyer, M and Toucher, M and Tramblay, Y and Uusikivi, J and Venegas-Cordero, N and Visessri, S and Watson, A and Westra, S and Whitfield, PH}, title = {ROBIN: Reference observatory of basins for international hydrological climate change detection.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {654}, pmid = {40251200}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {NE/W004038/1//RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; NE/X006247/1//RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; }, abstract = {Human-induced warming is modifying the water cycle. Adaptation to posed threats requires an understanding of hydrological responses to climate variability. Whilst these can be computationally modelled, observed streamflow data is essential for constraining models, and understanding and quantifying emerging trends in the water cycle. To date, the identification of such trends at the global scale has been hindered by data limitations - in particular, the prevalence of direct human influences on streamflow which can obscure climate-driven variability. By removing these influences, trends in streamflow data can be more confidently attributed to climate variability. Here we describe the Reference Observatory of Basins for INternational hydrological climate change detection (ROBIN) - the first iteration of a global network of streamflow data from national reference hydrological networks (RHNs) - comprised of catchments which are near-natural or have limited human influences. This collaboration has established a freely available global RHN dataset of over 3,000 catchments and code libraries, which can be used to underpin new science endeavours and advance change detection studies to support international climate policy and adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid40251164, year = {2025}, author = {Alves-Ferreira, G and Heming, NM and Talora, D and Keitt, TH and Solé, M and Zamudio, KR}, title = {Climate change is projected to shrink phylogenetic endemism of Neotropical frogs.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {3713}, pmid = {40251164}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Phylogeny ; *Anura/classification/genetics/physiology ; *Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Climate change is widely recognized as one of the main threats to biodiversity[1] and predicting its consequences is critical to conservation efforts. A wide range of studies have evaluated the effects of future climate using taxon-based metrics[3,4], but few studies to date have applied a phylogenetic approach to forecast these impacts. Here, we show that future climate change is expected to significantly modify not only species richness, but also phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism of Neotropical frogs. Our results show that by 2050, the ranges of 42.20% (n = 213) of species are projected to shrink and the range of 1.71% of species (n = 9) are projected to disappear. Furthermore, we find that areas of high SR and PD are not always congruent with areas of high PE. Our study highlights the projected impacts of climate change on Neotropical frog diversity and identifies target areas for conservation efforts that consider not just species numbers, but also distinct evolutionary histories.}, }
@article {pmid40246995, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, G and Snell, JC and Griffiths, TL and Dubey, R}, title = {Binary climate data visuals amplify perceived impact of climate change.}, journal = {Nature human behaviour}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40246995}, issn = {2397-3374}, abstract = {For much of the global population, climate change appears as a slow, gradual shift in daily weather. This leads many to perceive its impacts as minor and results in apathy (the 'boiling frog' effect). How can we convey the urgency of the crisis when its impacts appear so subtle? Here, through a series of large-scale cognitive experiments (N = 799), we find that presenting people with binary climate data (for example, lake freeze history) significantly increases the perceived impact of climate change (Cohen's d = 0.40, 95% confidence interval 0.26-0.54) compared with continuous data (for example, mean temperature). Computational modelling and follow-up experiments (N = 398) suggest that binary data enhance perceived impact by creating an 'illusion' of sudden shifts. Crucially, our approach does not involve selective data presentation but rather compares different datasets that reflect equivalent trends in climate change over time. These findings, robustly replicated across multiple experiments, provide a cognitive basis for the 'boiling frog' effect and offer a psychologically grounded approach for policymakers and educators to improve climate change communication while maintaining scientific accuracy.}, }
@article {pmid40246909, year = {2025}, author = {González, C and Calderón, JM and López, AM and Bernardini, I and Gradoni, L and Pombi, M and Bongiorno, G and Gabrielli, S}, title = {Species-specific variation in predicted distribution and habitat suitability of phlebotomine sand flies in Italy under different climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {13297}, pmid = {40246909}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {INV-2017-51-1430//Universidad de los Andes/ ; C26V20TH5A//Sapienza Universit&#xe0; di Roma/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Italy/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Psychodidae/physiology/parasitology ; *Insect Vectors/parasitology/physiology ; Humans ; Species Specificity ; Leishmaniasis/epidemiology/transmission ; Dogs ; *Phlebotomus ; Leishmania infantum ; }, abstract = {The incidence of human and canine leishmaniasis in Europe is increasing and is a key indicator in the Lancet Countdown report on health and climate change 2024. While the potential distribution of the disease on a continental scale has been assessed under climate change scenarios, local analyses of vector species distribution are crucial for effective prevention strategies. Italy is endemic for Leishmania infantum, and expansions in the latitudinal and altitudinal distribution of canine cases and vector species have been recorded. This study evaluated the potential distribution of six phlebotomine sand fly species, known or suspected vectors of L. infantum, under climate change scenarios using ecological niche modeling and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt v. 3.4.1) modeling algorithm. We analyzed 410 records from 1979 to 2013 and projected future distributions for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 using five CMIP5 models and two representative concentration pathways. Historical data from 1968 to 1972 were also examined to confirm suitable areas. The predictions indicate suitable habitats for sand flies throughout Italy, and variations among the different scenarios evaluated. All species show potential for expansion, such as the main vector, P. perniciosus, which shows an increase in the percentage of suitable habitat over time. On the other hand, predictions for P. perfiliewi don't show a clear pattern, with an initial decrease and subsequent increase in suitable areas. Shifts in the distribution of insect vectors may affect the dynamics of Leishmania transmission, highlighting the need for improved surveillance strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40245640, year = {2025}, author = {O'Reilly, S and Griffiths, J and Fox, L and Weadick, CS and My Oo, N and Murphy, L and O'Leary, R and Goulioti, T and Adam, V and Razis, ED and Lindholm, B and Werustsky, G and Cameron, D and Bliss, J}, title = {Climate change impacts and sustainability integration among breast international group members.}, journal = {Breast (Edinburgh, Scotland)}, volume = {81}, number = {}, pages = {104469}, doi = {10.1016/j.breast.2025.104469}, pmid = {40245640}, issn = {1532-3080}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Integration of sustainability measures into clinical research would translate into less healthcare related climate impacts.<br><br>METHODS: We assessed climate change impacts, existing sustainability engagement, and challenges and facilitators to climate change mitigation strategies among Breast International Group (BIG) members. A 30 item web based survey assessing climate impacts, sustainability engagement, challenges to and facilitators of engagement, and sustainability integration in funding applications was developed, and circulated electronically between November 2023 and March 2024.<br><br>RESULTS: Thirty four members (research groups and data centres) and participating sites across 5 continents, and BIG headquarters responded. Twenty six responses were received from 21 organisations, 20 from 17 participating sites. No responses were obtained from 28 groups. Trial conduct at a third of member groups had been impacted by climate change impacts such as destroyed infrastructure. 78&#xa0;% of groups agreed that sustainability should feature in future funding applications. Most respondents engaged in sustainability initiatives at a host institute and organisational level. However, 39&#xa0;% of coordinating centres and 65&#xa0;% of representative sites had none within clinical trials conducted by their organisation. The majority of respondents foresaw challenges to sustainability engagement including competing time pressure, staff attitudes and resource constraints. Of nine potential facilitators to engagement, funding, an evidence base for sustainable research practice and training were the leading themes.<br><br>CONCLUSION: In the first global survey of its kind, a third of respondents reported that climate change had impacted trial conduct. Integration of sustainability measures was absent in a significant minority. Funding and dedicated resourcing would facilitate increased engagement in cancer clinical trials.}, }
@article {pmid40245513, year = {2025}, author = {Dias, CG and Martins, FB and Martins, MA and Tomasella, J}, title = {Breaking new ground: First AquaCrop calibration and climate change impact assessment on Arabica coffee.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {978}, number = {}, pages = {179418}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179418}, pmid = {40245513}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change threatens global coffee yield stability, especially in Brazil, the largest Arabica exporter. Yield modeling is key to climate-resilient strategies and effective planning. To this end, the AquaCrop model was parameterized, calibrated, and validated for Arabica coffee in Brazil and subsequently applied to project yield under future climate scenarios. These processes were carried out across 58 municipalities in Brazil's two largest coffee-growing regions, covering the growing years from 2014 to 2019. AquaCrop accurately simulated Arabica coffee yield during calibration and validation processes, with root mean square error values of ∼0.15 t ha[-1], mean bias error of ∼0.007 t ha[-1], and d-index of ∼0.76. To project yield, AquaCrop used as input daily near-surface air temperature (minimum and maximum), precipitation, and reference evapotranspiration data from 9 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), which are derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Under future climate conditions, reductions in the coffee growing cycle duration and heterogeneous yield changes are projected, with increases (between 0.25 and 0.55 t ha[-1]) along a belt extending from southeastern São Paulo to southern Minas Gerais, and decreases (between -0.05 and -0.15 t ha[-1]) in northeastern Minas Gerais. Even though yield increases are projected for much of the study region, adopting effective adaptive measures will be essential to address climate change threats.}, }
@article {pmid40245097, year = {2025}, author = {Martínez, ML and Silva, R and Chávez, V and López-Portillo, J and Salgado, K and Marín-Coria, E and Pérez-Maqueo, O and Maximiliano-Cordova, C and Landgrave, R and de la Cruz, V}, title = {The challenges of climate change and human impacts faced by Mexican coasts: A comprehensive evaluation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {e0320087}, pmid = {40245097}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Mexico ; Ecosystem ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Cyclonic Storms ; Urbanization ; Sea Level Rise ; }, abstract = {The extensive shoreline of Mexico is heterogeneous and diverse, but it is increasingly exposed to degradation and loss. This is the first study performed at a national level and with a multidisciplinary approach, that aims to assess the impact of climate change and human-related pressures affecting Mexican coasts. From 1863 to 2022, 386 tropical cyclones have landed on Mexican coasts, six of them of category 5 (most on the Atlantic). Sea level rise projections showed that the Atlantic coast is the most vulnerable, whereas intense coastal erosion (> 25m/year) is more widespread on the northern Pacific coast. Human impacts include coastal urbanization, ecosystem degradation and coastal armouring. Six million people live on Mexican coasts, mostly in the Caribbean. Mangroves and coastal dunes each cover nearly 800,000 ha. The mangroves are relatively well preserved, but almost half the area of the coastal dunes is degraded. Coastal armouring is widespread along the coasts, but most of these structures (55%) are found on the Yucatan peninsula. Activities required to improve the condition of Mexican coasts and make them a sustainable place to live would include: adaptation of human settlements to the conditions of the dynamic coasts; appropriate coastal protection measures that do not induce downdrift erosion; dealing with coastal risks by restoring and preserving coastal ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid40244674, year = {2025}, author = {Vercammen, A and Wray, B and Crider, YS and Belkin, G and Lawrance, EL}, title = {Psychological impacts of climate change on US youth.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {16}, pages = {e2311400122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2311400122}, pmid = {40244674}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Adolescent ; Female ; Male ; United States ; Young Adult ; Adaptation, Psychological ; Anxiety/psychology ; Mental Health ; *Stress, Psychological/psychology ; }, abstract = {Awareness of the threats of climate change is causing distress in increasingly documented ways, with youth particularly affected. Experiences such as climate distress and eco-anxiety have implications for the health and well-being of societies and economies, including individuals' mental health and future planning, as well as their agency beliefs. Here, we show in a large sample of US youth (n = 2,834, ages 16 to 24) that the majority of US youth experience moderate climate distress and some functional interference from climate-related thoughts and feelings and a neutral to slightly positive sense of agency. They feel concern, interest, disappointment, frustration, sadness, anxiousness, and anger as affective responses to the crisis, and a majority report that their climate awareness may influence their plans for education, travel, and family planning. The key takeaway of this study is that the psychological impacts of climate change in US youth can have either impairing or strengthening effects, especially in the face of increased perceived direct exposure. Results show that self-reported direct experience of climate-related events is associated with increased eco-anxiety, climate distress, and impact of climate change on future planning, but also fortifying responses such as psychological adaptation and agency. These findings highlight the need for health systems and communities to prepare to address increased climate distress and related concerns in US youth as perceived exposure to climate-related hazards increases, in ways that strengthen healthy coping and agency to act. These findings have implications for the mental health of populations, climate behaviors, and life choices of young people experiencing these threats.}, }
@article {pmid40243927, year = {2025}, author = {Kapazoglou, A and Tani, E and Papasotiropoulos, V and Letsiou, S and Gerakari, M and Abraham, E and Bebeli, PJ}, title = {Enhancing Abiotic Stress Resilience in Mediterranean Woody Perennial Fruit Crops: Genetic, Epigenetic, and Microbial Molecular Perspectives in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {40243927}, issn = {1422-0067}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Stress, Physiological/genetics ; *Crops, Agricultural/genetics/microbiology ; *Epigenesis, Genetic ; Mediterranean Region ; *Fruit/genetics/microbiology ; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; Microbiota ; Droughts ; }, abstract = {Enhanced abiotic stresses such as increased drought, elevated temperatures, salinity, and extreme weather phenomena severely affect major crops in the Mediterranean area, a 'hot spot' of climate change. Plants have evolved mechanisms to face stressful conditions and adapt to increased environmental pressures. Intricate molecular processes involving genetic and epigenetic factors and plant-microbe interactions have been implicated in the response and tolerance to abiotic stress. Deciphering the molecular mechanisms whereby plants perceive and respond to stress is crucial for developing strategies to counteract climate challenges. Progress in determining genes, complex gene networks, and biochemical pathways, as well as plant-microbiota crosstalk, involved in abiotic stress tolerance has been achieved through the application of molecular tools in diverse genetic resources. This knowledge could be particularly useful for accelerating plant improvement and generating resilient varieties, especially concerning woody perennial crops, where classical breeding is a lengthy and labor-intensive process. Similarly, understanding the mechanisms of plant-microbe interactions could provide insights into innovative approaches to facing stressful conditions. In this review, we provide a comprehensive overview and discuss the recent findings concerning the genetic, epigenetic, and microbial aspects shaping abiotic stress responses, in the context of enhancing resilience in important Mediterranean woody perennial fruit crops.}, }
@article {pmid40243877, year = {2025}, author = {Tavares-Cohén, GA and Simões-Castro, AP and Andrade-Sales, C and Mendonça-Cavalcante, PA and Moreira-Sena, MP and Brito-Alves, BC and El-Awar, UG and Araújo-Sardinha, AW and Azevedo-Ribeiro, CHM and Fernandes-Vieira, JL and Pereira-Sena, LW}, title = {Impact of climate change and social determinants on the spatial and epidemiological distribution of tuberculosis in the state of Pará: a perspective for COP 30.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {85}, number = {}, pages = {e293623}, doi = {10.1590/1519-6984.293623}, pmid = {40243877}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {Brazil/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Tuberculosis/epidemiology ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Incidence ; *Social Determinants of Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Risk Factors ; Female ; Male ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {Tuberculosis is a critical public health challenge in Brazil, with the state of Pará reporting high incidence rates driven by social inequalities, rapid urbanization, and adverse climatic conditions. This study analyzes the epidemiology of tuberculosis in the Metropolitan Region of Belém from 2018 to 2022, correlating social and environmental determinants with the impacts of climate change. Georeferenced data, temporal analysis, and predictive modeling were employed to identify epidemiological patterns and high-incidence clusters. Belém accounted for 60.1% of cases in the region, highlighting the influence of population density and socioeconomic vulnerabilities exacerbated by extreme climatic events. The findings underscore the need to integrate public policies and sustainability, emphasizing COP30 as an opportunity to catalyze both local and global actions.}, }
@article {pmid40243032, year = {2025}, author = {Erkan, FM and Kavak Budak, F}, title = {The correlation between global climate change anxiety and death anxiety in women: A case study from the zone of 6 February earthquake.}, journal = {The International journal of social psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {207640251328599}, doi = {10.1177/00207640251328599}, pmid = {40243032}, issn = {1741-2854}, abstract = {AIM: This study aims to determine the correlation between global climate change anxiety and death anxiety in women.<br><br>METHOD: The population of this correlational descriptive study consisted of women who lived in a informal living conditions in a province due to the earthquake. Five hundred women were included in the study. The data were collected using a Descriptive Characteristics Form, the Climate Change Anxiety Scale, and the Death Anxiety Scale by holding face-to-face interviews with women who lived in the informal living conditions between June and September 2024.<br><br>FINDINGS: The total mean score of the women on the climate change anxiety scale was 20.73&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;8.05. The total mean score of the participants on the death anxiety scale was 9.55&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;3.34 (Table 2). A statistically significant positive weak correlation was found between the total mean score of the participants on the Climate Change Anxiety Scale and their total mean score on the Death Anxiety Scale (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;.05).<br><br>CONCLUSION: The anxiety level of the participants about climate change could be considered to be low. The death anxiety score of the women was 'severe'. As the climate change anxiety of the participants increased, so did their death anxiety.}, }
@article {pmid40242740, year = {2025}, author = {Aziz, M and Anjum, G}, title = {Rethinking knowledge systems in psychology: addressing epistemic hegemony and systemic obstacles in climate change studies.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1533802}, pmid = {40242740}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate psychology has emerged as a critical field examining how individuals and societies perceive, respond to, and engage with the climate crisis. However, the discipline remains deeply influenced by Western epistemologies, which privilege individualistic, anthropocentric, and positivist approaches to knowledge production. This perspective paper critically examines how Western bias shapes the theoretical frameworks, methodological approaches, and policy implications within climate psychology, often to the exclusion of non-Western epistemologies, particularly those from Indigenous and Global South communities. We argue that dominant Western paradigms, rooted in individualism, cognitive-behavioral models, and human-exceptionalist perspectives, constrain the field's ability to fully capture the complex, relational, and context-specific ways in which diverse populations engage with climate change. Moreover, the overreliance on quantitative and experimental methodologies systematically marginalizes Indigenous methodologies, such as storytelling, relational worldviews, and participatory research approaches, thereby limiting the inclusivity and ecological validity of climate psychology research. To address these limitations, we propose a decolonial approach to climate psychology, advocating for the integration of Indigenous epistemologies, pluralistic methodologies, and equitable research collaborations. By diversifying epistemic foundations and methodological tools, climate psychology can move beyond its Western biases, leading to more culturally responsive research and more effective and just climate interventions. This paper calls for a fundamental reorientation in climate psychology, one that values epistemic diversity as essential for addressing the multifaceted human dimensions of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40241461, year = {2025}, author = {Shen, Z and Giljohann, K and Liu, Z and Pausas, J and Rogers, B}, title = {Novel wildfire regimes under climate change and human activity: patterns, driving mechanisms and ecological impacts.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {380}, number = {1924}, pages = {20230446}, pmid = {40241461}, issn = {1471-2970}, support = {//National Key Research and Development Program of China Stem Cell and Translational Research/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Wildfires ; *Ecosystem ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; *Anthropogenic Effects ; *Fires ; }, abstract = {Fire regime refers to the statistical characteristics of fire events within specific spatio-temporal contexts, shaped by interactions among climatic conditions, vegetation types and natural or anthropogenic ignitions. Under the dual pressures of intensified global climate changes and human activities, fire regimes worldwide are undergoing unprecedented transformations, marked by increasing frequency of large and intense wildfires in some regions, yet declining fire activity in others. These fire regime changes (FRC) may drive responses in ecosystem structure and function across spatio-temporal scales, posing significant challenges to socio-economic adaptation and mitigation capacities. To date, research on the patterns and mechanisms of global FRC has rapidly expanded, with investigations into driving factors revealing complex interactions. This review synthesizes research advancements in FRC by analysing 17 articles from this special issue and 249 additional publications retrieved from the Web of Science. We systematically outline the key characteristics of FRC, geographical hotspots of fire regime transformation, critical fire-prone vegetation types, primary climatic and anthropogenic drivers and ecosystem adaptations and feedbacks. Finally, we highlight research frontiers and identify key approaches to advance this field and emphasize an interdisciplinary perspective in understanding and adapting to FRC.This article is part of the theme issue 'Novel fire regimes under climate changes and human influences: impacts, ecosystem responses and feedbacks'.}, }
@article {pmid40241243, year = {2025}, author = {Ruffatto, K and Minello, LVP and Furtado, BG and Johann, L and Sperotto, RA}, title = {Nanoparticles as tools for enhancing plant resistance to biotic stress in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {177}, number = {2}, pages = {e70227}, pmid = {40241243}, issn = {1399-3054}, support = {305135/2021-0//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 405779/2022-4//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 22/2551-0001641-3//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Nanoparticles/chemistry ; *Stress, Physiological ; Crops, Agricultural ; Plant Diseases/prevention &amp; control ; Disease Resistance ; Chitosan ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {In the face of climate change, agriculture is increasingly challenged by shifting dynamics of biotic stresses, including the intensified spread of pests and pathogens. Traditional control methods, often reliant on chemical pesticides, are associated with environmental degradation and potential health risks. Nanoparticles (NPs) present a promising, sustainable alternative for enhancing plant resistance to biotic stresses, potentially revolutionizing agricultural practices. This mini-review explores the mechanisms through which NP-based formulations (such as metal-based NPs, chitosan, and silica) induce plant responses and bolster defences against pathogens and pests. By enhancing plant resilience without the environmental downsides of conventional pesticides, NPs could support a more sustainable approach to crop protection. This review also highlights the potential risks in expanding the use of NPs in agriculture, urging more studies to explore these technologies as a sustainable approach to managing crops in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid40239496, year = {2025}, author = {Shacheri, F and Czuba, JA and Perkins, MA}, title = {Isolating the compounding effects of dam hydropeaking and climate change on freshwater mussel recruitment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {977}, number = {}, pages = {179390}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179390}, pmid = {40239496}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Dam hydropeaking events, which are short-term variations in river flow because of turning turbines on and off to satisfy the sub-daily energy demand, affect riverine ecosystems. Our study area is the mostly forested Dan River in North Carolina where upstream dam operations affect streamflow and where the endangered James spinymussel (Parvaspina collina, JSM) has declined over time; conditions characteristic of many rivers. Wildlife managers across the Eastern U.S., and in North Carolina specifically, are seeking actionable knowledge to improve habitat conditions for freshwater mussels. Here, water is a key societal resource for power generation, but a risk factor during certain time periods of a freshwater mussel's life cycle. This study evaluates the relative contribution of hydropeaking and climate change in affecting freshwater mussel populations, in general, and freshwater mussel recruitment, specifically. We isolated hydropeaking events and calculated various hydrological metrics from the hydrograph (15-min interval) between 2001 and 2022 of the regulated Dan River and compared them to those from the adjacent unregulated Mayo River. Our major finding is that low-flow events, which are decreasing in part due to climate change, are important for freshwater mussel recruitment, and these low flows are being disrupted by dam releases, which are occurring more frequently, that together are correlated with a decrease in the JSM population in the Dan River. This study provides actionable knowledge for decision-makers and river managers to promote sustainable coexistence of human needs (e.g., hydropower generation) and ecological conservation.}, }
@article {pmid40239306, year = {2025}, author = {Fanzo, J and Carducci, B and Louis-Jean, J and Herrero, M and Karl, K and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, Food Security, and Nutrition: Evolving Relationships and Critical Challenges.}, journal = {Annual review of nutrition}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-nutr-111324-111252}, pmid = {40239306}, issn = {1545-4312}, abstract = {Climate change, also known as global warming, poses significant challenges for both the planet and humanity. With further warming, every region across the world is projected to increasingly experience concurrent and multiple changes in climate, compounding overall risk. Long-term climate change and near-term extreme weather events have multiple negative effects on food security, diets, and nutrition via complex, multidirectional pathways through food, health, water, and social protection systems. However, measuring climate-attributable malnutrition impacts, especially among the most vulnerable populations, remains challenging. Changes in climate across a range of geographies have been modeled, projected, and observed showing detrimental associations with dietary and nutrition outcomes, particularly undernutrition. Many of these undernourished populations are climate vulnerable due to a variety of determinants challenging their ability to adapt to impending risks. While nutrition integration within climate adaptation plans have lagged, there is momentum for robust collaboration between climate and nutrition communities to fill data gaps that are critical for joint decision-making.}, }
@article {pmid40238752, year = {2025}, author = {Nasab, FK and Zeraatkar, A}, title = {Assessing the impact of global warming on the distributions of Allium stipitatum and Kelussia odoratissima in the Central Zagros using a MaxEnt model.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {e0321167}, pmid = {40238752}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Allium/physiology/growth &amp; development ; Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Global warming is an undeniable fact occurring in different parts of the world. Climate changes can have irreversible effects on plant communities, particularly on endemic and endangered species. Therefore, it is important to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of these species to help protect them. This study utilized the MaxEnt model to forecast the impact of climate change on the distributions of two medicinal, edible, and aromatic species, Kelussia odoratissima and Allium stipitatum, in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. The study used the CCSM4 general circulation model along with two climate scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, for the 2050s and 2070s to predict the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the species studied. The research findings indicated that the model performed effectively for prediction (AUC≥0.9). The primary environmental variables influencing species distribution were found to be isothermality (Bio3), soil organic carbon, and pH for A. stipitatum, and soil organic carbon, precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) for K. odoratissima. The findings suggest that the distribution of the studied species is expected to decline in the 2050s and 2070s due to climate change, under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The research indicates that climate change is likely to have a significantly negative effect on the habitats of these species, leading to important ecological and socio-economic impacts. Therefore, our study emphasizes the urgent need for conservation efforts to prevent their extinction and protect their habitats.}, }
@article {pmid40238549, year = {2025}, author = {Sack, TL and Thiravialingam, AR and Zubizarreta, CS and Felix, R and Kanazeh, R and Lachica, I and Hernandez Cuesta, E and Martin, A and Anderson, F and Holder, C}, title = {Heat Illness and Extreme Weather Health Literacy: Communication Preferences and Effectiveness for Patients Living in Climate-Change-Vulnerable Communities.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {40238549}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {No Grant Number provided//The Miami Foundation/ ; No grant number provided//The Miami Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Health Literacy ; Adult ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Female ; *Climate Change ; *Heat Stress Disorders ; *Communication ; Aged ; Weather ; *Patient Education as Topic/methods ; Young Adult ; Patient Preference ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Health professionals are trusted information sources and could be valuable for improving climate change health literacy. Few studies address teaching patients about health risks associated with climate change, and no studies have focused on the medical office waiting room as a teaching site for populations from heat-vulnerable neighborhoods. We gave adult patients in primary care office waiting rooms printed teaching materials about heat-related illnesses. We asked them to read these at home and then complete an online confidential survey concerning their preferences among teaching methods and their preferences for communication during health emergencies. Ninety-one surveys were received from patients residing in heat-vulnerable neighborhoods. Patients liked receiving information in waiting rooms. Printed brochures were favored statistically by patients, but other teaching methods that are feasible for waiting rooms also rated well, including single-page printed fliers, posters, and video screens. Digital options were far less favored. We conclude that printed teaching materials may improve decisions that impact human health. The medical office waiting room appears to be an accepted, time-efficient, and effective site to communicate knowledge on climate change and health. Additionally, medical offices could play a role supporting government agencies to communicate with patients during weather-related health emergencies.}, }
@article {pmid40235634, year = {2024}, author = {Eilam, E}, title = {Considering the role of behaviors in sustainability and climate change education.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1394326}, pmid = {40235634}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {At the heart of sustainability and climate change education discourse is the notion of student behavioral change, as an emphasized goal. The central positioning of behavior modification raises moral and ethical concerns, as well as concerns regarding the impacts on student well-being. In addressing these issues, this conceptual paper interrogates the role ascribed to student behavior in sustainability education and climate change education. Multiple lenses are applied to critique the behavioral modification approach. Finally, it is proposed to reframe the role of behavior and to conceptualize behavior as forming part of ethics education, where the focus shifts from assigning behavior an instrumental role to conceptualizing its intrinsic educational value.}, }
@article {pmid40233649, year = {2025}, author = {Reis, J and Öztürk, &#x15e; and Ayta, S and Tulek, Z and Siva, A and Can, G and Spencer, PS}, title = {Corrigendum to "Health challenges of climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region, with a focus on Türkiye. An environmental neurological and brain health perspective of article" [Journal of the Neurological Sciences, Vol 470 (2025), 123423].}, journal = {Journal of the neurological sciences}, volume = {473}, number = {}, pages = {123494}, doi = {10.1016/j.jns.2025.123494}, pmid = {40233649}, issn = {1878-5883}, }
@article {pmid40232974, year = {2025}, author = {Editors, T}, title = {There Are No Climate Havens: Special regions or areas people can move to that are untouched by climate change do not exist.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {332}, number = {5}, pages = {76}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican052025-3tG5xBu5IbE8XBawDNt8Ay}, pmid = {40232974}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid40231938, year = {2025}, author = {}, title = {Correction to: Dryland microbiomes reveal community adaptations to desertification and climate change.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/ismejo/wraf060}, pmid = {40231938}, issn = {1751-7370}, }
@article {pmid40230865, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, L and Wang, P and Xie, GL and Wang, WK}, title = {Assessing the Potential Distribution of Pseudoechthistatus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in China Under Climate Change Using Species Distribution Models.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e71303}, pmid = {40230865}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change will lead to changes in biological ecosystems, which may affect the geographic distribution of Pseudoechthistatus and thus alter the extent and spatial pattern of its habitat. Pseudoechthistatus plays an important role in biodiversity and has significant ecological value. This study utilized an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the predicted distribution of Pseudoechthistatus in China for the current and future (2050s and 2070s). The results show that the MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy with AUC values higher than 0.97 for both training and testing. The most influential factors contributing to the distribution of Pseudoechthistatus were temperature seasonality (Bio4) and isothermality (Bio3), accounting for 38.8% and 28.2%, respectively. Furthermore, southern China remains a region of high suitability for Pseudoechthistatus species diversity. However, the Beijing climate center climate system model (BCC-CSM2-MR) predicts a decrease in suitable areas for Pseudoechthistatus, while the model for interdisciplinary research on climate (MIROC6) predicts an increase in medium and low suitable areas for Pseudoechthistatus. Additionally, future climate change will significantly alter its distribution pattern, with Pseudoechthistatus predicted to decrease its suitable area by 6.64%-28.01% under the BCC-CSM2-MR model and increase its suitable area by 6.14%-18.61% under the MIROC6 model. The results show that the MaxEnt model can improve the understanding of the geographical distribution of Pseudoechthistatus in the context of climate change and provide a scientific basis for the identification of potentially suitable habitats and the development of stable suitable areas for conservation.}, }
@article {pmid40230149, year = {2025}, author = {Kang, LF and Zhao, RF and Lu, HT and Liu, FS and Yang, LQ and Ren, XT}, title = {[Quantitative Identification of Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Ecological Quality of Vegetation in the Shiyang River Basin over Past 20 Years].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {46}, number = {4}, pages = {2439-2449}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.202404129}, pmid = {40230149}, issn = {0250-3301}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Rivers ; China ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Anthropogenic Effects ; *Human Activities ; *Plant Development ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Climate change and a series of anthropogenic activities have caused significant changes in vegetation. Quantitative identification of the relative contributions of climate change and anthropogenic activities to the interannual changes in vegetation ecological quality in the Shiyang River Basin is of great value for coping with future climatic challenges and implementing ecological protection measures in the Shiyang River Basin. Based on vegetation ecological quality （EQI）, combined with multi-source remote sensing data, this study utilized slope trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and residual analysis to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation ecological quality change and the partial correlation relationship with climate factors in the Shiyang River Basin and explored the relative contribution of climate change and anthropogenic activities to EQI trend change. The results showed that： ① EQI in the Shiyang River Basin increased steadily from 2002 to 2021, and the growth rate of EQI in the mountain area and oasis was significantly higher than that in the desert area. From southwest to northeast, the distribution pattern increased first and then decreased, and the regions with a faster increase in EQI were distributed around the oasis edge. ② Both temperature and precipitation in the Shiyang River Basin increased during the recent 20 years, and the positive effect of precipitation factor on vegetation greening was greater than that of temperature. ③ Climate change and anthropogenic activities contributed 33% and 67%, respectively, to the increase of EQI in the Shiyang River Basin in the past 20 years, and the positive impact of anthropogenic activities on vegetation ecological quality was continuously strengthened. The research results provide important reference for the formulation of vegetation ecological protection and management policies in the Shiyang River basin.}, }
@article {pmid40228471, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, J and Cong, RG}, title = {Designing an effective incentive scheme for climate change mitigation in energy forests.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {381}, number = {}, pages = {125316}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125316}, pmid = {40228471}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Energy forests play a crucial role in carbon sequestration and biodiesel production, offering significant potential for mitigating climate change while enhancing energy security. However, current payment schemes are inefficient due to short durations and failure to consider the heterogeneity among private forest owners, leading to suboptimal budget utilisation. This study introduces an innovative "carrot and stick" incentive scheme that integrates subsidies and taxation within a unified framework. By incorporating the social carbon price concept and a principal-agent mechanism into the Land Expectation Value model, the proposed scheme incentivises private forest owners to optimize carbon reductions by accounting for soil quality. Soil quality influences timber yield-contributing to carbon storage in wood biomass-and seed yield, which reduces carbon emissions by substituting diesel with biodiesel. An empirical analysis of Pistacia chinensis forests demonstrates that the proposed scheme can extend optimal rotation ages, especially for forests on low-quality soil. Tailored subsidies that reflect forest heterogeneity further prolong rotation ages, albeit at the cost of government payments in information rents. Meanwhile, taxation ensures alignment between sustainable forest management, biodiesel utilisation, and carbon neutrality objectives. This approach offers actionable insights for policymakers in designing future incentive schemes that promote sustainable forest management and enhance the contribution of forests to climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid40228120, year = {2025}, author = {Marcos, M and Amores, A and Agulles, M and Robson, J and Feng, X}, title = {Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 [°]C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {16}, pages = {e2413505122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2413505122}, pmid = {40228120}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {CNS2022-135532//MEC | Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n (AEI)/ ; PID2021-124085OB-I00//MEC | Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n (AEI)/ ; NE/W004984/1//UKRI | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; NE/T013516/1//UKRI | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; }, abstract = {Marine heatwaves are extreme climatic events consisting of persistent periods of warm ocean waters that have profound impacts on marine life. These episodes are becoming more intense, longer, and more frequent in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here, we provide a comprehensive and quantitative assessment on the role of global warming on marine heatwaves. To do so, we construct a counterfactual version of observed global sea surface temperatures since 1940, corresponding to a stationary climate without the effect of long-term increasing global temperatures, and use it to calculate the contribution of global air temperature rise on the intensity and persistence of marine heatwaves. We determine that global warming is responsible for nearly half of these extreme events and that, on a global average, it has led to a three-fold increase in the number of days per year that the oceans experience extreme surface heat conditions. We also show that global warming is responsible for an increase of 1 [°]C in the maximum intensity of the events. Our findings highlight the detrimental role that human-induced global warming plays on marine heatwaves. This study supports the need for mitigation and adaptation strategies to address these threats to marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid40226957, year = {2025}, author = {Machado, J and da Silva, MN and Vasconcelos, MW and Santos, CS}, title = {The Impact Of Climate Change-Induced Abiotic Stresses on the Nutritional Quality of Legume Seeds.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/eraf085}, pmid = {40226957}, issn = {1460-2431}, abstract = {Legumes are integral to agricultural sustainability, offering multifaceted benefits ranging from enhanced yields to companion crops to improved soil health. Despite their recognized advantages, challenges such as technological lock-ins, limited breeding resources, and adverse environmental conditions pose threats to their cultivation. Herein, the complex interaction between climate change stressors - specifically drought, high temperatures, and elevated CO2 levels - and their individual and combined impacts on the nutritional quality of legumes will be discussed. This topic has not been reviewed very often for multiple legume crops, despite its importance under climate change. This review critically examines the impact of environmental stresses on the nutritional quality of legume seeds and explores the underlying regulatory mechanisms, encompassing protein, amino acids, minerals, carbohydrates, lipids, and bioactive compounds. Key insights indicate a general need to shift legume cultivation practices, and the necessity of field studies beyond controlled environments for results that are more readily translated to the target population of environments for legume cultivation.}, }
@article {pmid40226811, year = {2025}, author = {Woywodt, A and Kuruvilla, R and Stoneman, S}, title = {Climate change and continued professional development (CPD): Is it time for all CPD diaries to include carbon footprint estimates?.}, journal = {Future healthcare journal}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {100242}, pmid = {40226811}, issn = {2514-6645}, abstract = {The triple threat of changing climate, loss of biodiversity and pollution poses a significant challenge to our patients and the planet, and healthcare contributes to all three elements of the threat. The carbon footprint of continued professional development (CPD) is increasingly recognised, although a cognitive dissonance exists whereby climate change is acknowledged but air travel to conferences continues unabated. A CO2 allowance for CPD activities has been suggested previously. We suggest that CO2 footprint estimates could be incorporated into existing CPD diaries as a step towards visualising the environmental impact of CPD. Electronic CPD diaries are already widely used and typically contain dates and locations for CPD activities. It would be relatively easy and inexpensive to add an estimate of CO2 footprint to these diaries. Such an approach would initiate reflection, promote insight and help facilitate behavioural change. We call on institutions involved in CPD licensing, administration and documentation to trial this approach and share their experience.}, }
@article {pmid40226359, year = {2025}, author = {Schlatter, L and Kumar, M and Kumar, P}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health Nexus in National Climate Policy-Gaps and Challenges.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {91}, number = {1}, pages = {19}, pmid = {40226359}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Mental Health ; *Mental Disorders ; *Health Policy ; Global Health ; }, abstract = {Background: Climate change is increasingly recognized as a driver of mental health disorders, exacerbating conditions such as anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress. However, climate policies rarely address mental health considerations. Objective: This study investigates the extent to which mental health is incorporated into national climate adaptation policies, specifically Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), from countries classified as high or very high risk according to the INFORM index. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review and policy analysis of NDCs from 38 high-risk countries. A keyword-based approach was used to assess the frequency and depth of mental health references in climate policies. Findings: Only 8 of 38 countries explicitly referenced mental health in their NDCs. Most policies prioritized physical health, with little attention given to the psychological impacts of climate-related disasters. Vulnerable populations, including children, women, and individuals with preexisting mental health conditions, remain largely unaddressed in these national policies. Conclusions: There is a significant gap in the integration of mental health impact and interventional indicators within climate change policies. Greater investment in interdisciplinary research and policy reforms are needed to ensure climate adaptation strategies address both physical and mental health concerns.}, }
@article {pmid40223137, year = {2025}, author = {Salmanpour, F and Shakoori, Z and Rahbarizadeh, A and Kia, M and Kord, H and Eshaghi, R and Valizadeh, P and Tizrouyan, M and Salmanpour, M and Naeimaei, R}, title = {Climate change impacts on altitudinal movements of society large mammals in the Alborz.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {12735}, pmid = {40223137}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Altitude ; *Animal Migration/physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Deer/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Goats/physiology ; Biodiversity ; *Mammals/physiology ; Sus scrofa/physiology ; }, abstract = {This study examines the impact of climate change on the altitudinal movement patterns and number of individuals of four large mammal species within the Central Alborz Protected Area (CAPA) region of the Alborz Mountains, a biodiversity hotspot, over a 23-year period (1999 to 2022). During the warm season (May 25-September 29), temperatures were reported to have increased by 2-2.5 °C, while relative humidity was observed to have decreased by 4-4.5%. Compared to the past two decades (2000-2022), Caspian red deer were observed to initiate their annual high-altitude migrations 15-20 days earlier, with the number of individuals in the summer range increasing more than threefold. Wild goats also migrated earlier, with peak arrivals increasing from 20-36 (1999-2003) to 36-57 (2018-2022) between May 25 and May 31, highlighting temperature as the primary driver of herbivore movement. In contrast, brown bears exhibited more subtle altitudinal movement, likely influenced by both temperature and humidity. Wild boars, with an approximate 40% increase in the number of individuals, tended to return to lower elevations earlier than in previous years (1999-2003). These patterns highlight the role of climate as a significant regulator of movement ecology, influencing high-altitude habitat use. However, human-induced barriers, such as roads and settlements, present additional threats to these seasonal migrations. This underscores the urgent need for adaptive management strategies, including the protection of movement corridors, the expansion of core zones, and enhanced community engagement, to support the resilience of these species under changing climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid40223125, year = {2025}, author = {Di Bartolomeo, F and Ligresti, R and Pettenuzzo, S and Bini, T and Tincati, C and Marchetti, GC}, title = {Shewanella putrefaciens, an emerging foe from climate change: a case report.}, journal = {Journal of medical case reports}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {105}, pmid = {40223125}, issn = {1752-1947}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; *Shewanella putrefaciens/isolation &amp; purification ; Aged ; *Gram-Negative Bacterial Infections/drug therapy/microbiology/diagnosis ; Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use ; *Climate Change ; Ciprofloxacin/therapeutic use ; *Soft Tissue Infections/microbiology/drug therapy ; Spain ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Shewanella putrefaciens is a Gram negative, facultatively anerobic bacterium commonly found in aquatic environments and is associated with decomposing organic matter. Although typically nonpathogenic, it has been recognized as an opportunistic pathogen capable of causing rare infections in humans, particularly immunocompromised individuals or those with underlying health conditions.<br><br>CASE PRESENTATION: We report the case of a 74-year-old white Italian female who developed a soft tissue infection after sustaining a leg injury and subsequently bathing in the coastal waters of Valencia, Spain. Despite initial treatment with amoxicillin/clavulanic acid and wound debridement, the infection persisted. Microbiological analysis revealed the presence of Shewanella putrefaciens and Bacteroides fragilis. The patient required a second-line antibiotic regimen with ciprofloxacin, which successfully resolved the infection, although the patient experienced chronic ankle edema owing to underlying lymphatic insufficiency.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This case underscores several critical considerations: the emerging pathogenic potential of S. putrefaciens, the implications of environmental antibiotic resistance, and the increased risk of such infections in the context of global warming and rising sea temperatures. With climate change contributing to warmer aquatic environments, the proliferation of marine bacteria, such as S. putrefaciens, may lead to a growing number of opportunistic infections, emphasizing the need for vigilance in both clinical and environmental health settings.}, }
@article {pmid40221938, year = {2025}, author = {Estrada, F and Tol, RSJ and Botzen, W}, title = {Economic consequences of spatial variation and temporal variability of climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.15335}, pmid = {40221938}, issn = {1749-6632}, abstract = {Damage functions in integrated assessment models (IAMs) map changes in climate to economic impacts and are central to estimating the social cost of carbon (SCC). However, these functions assume no spatial variation (Svar) and temporal variability (Tvar) in climate changes, potentially biasing estimates and policy advice. While the effects of Tvar have been studied, those of Svar and their interactions with Tvar have not. Here, we allow for Tvar, Svar, and seasonality of damages and show that ignoring these factors significantly biases loss and SCC estimates. Under a high emissions scenario, losses are underestimated by 17-45%, representing US$1.9-US$9.7 trillion by 2050 and US$19-US$70 trillion by 2100 (17-35%). The present value of losses over this century exceeds previous estimates by US$38-US$222 trillion, representing 37-218% of 2020 global gross domestic product (GDP). The present value of losses including climate variability represents about 1.2-11.7% of the present value of global GDP over 2020-2100. The SCC increases by US$20/tCO2, reaching US$106/tCO2. There is large sectoral and regional heterogeneity regarding losses and SCC, with India, Africa, and China accounting for 50% of global SCC, and health and other markets contributing 40%. A more complete climate description than global mean temperature is needed in IAMs to adequately estimate climate change costs.}, }
@article {pmid40221918, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, B and Tian, X and Stranks, SD and You, F}, title = {Transitioning Photovoltaics to All-Perovskite Tandems Reduces 2050 Climate Change Impacts of PV Sector by 16.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.5c00121}, pmid = {40221918}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Solar photovoltaics (PVs) are projected to supply up to 79% of global electricity by 2050. The mass production of energy-intensive silicon PV may lead to significant environmental impacts and material demands. Adopting metal halide perovskite tandem PV can further enhance the sustainability of the PV sector due to their potentially higher efficiency yet lower fabrication emissions than silicon PV. Here, we assess the climate and material demand impacts of perovskite tandem deployment on global and regional PV sectors from 2030 to 2050. In addition to the deployment of perovskite tandem into the silicon-dominated PV sector, we consider the fast, slow, and no transitions from perovskite-silicon tandem as a stepping stone to the final all-perovskite tandem PV. The transition can reduce up to 0.43 Mt tin requirement and 16.2% of cumulative carbon emissions from the PV fabrication process. Even without all-perovskite deployment, perovskite-silicon PV can still generate up to a 10.8% cumulative carbon reduction compared to silicon PV scenarios. Besides, the deployment of perovskite tandem systems can reduce energy costs by up to 21.2%, achieving a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) as low as 3.66 cents/kWh. Achieving these results requires replacing resource-limiting components, such as substituting indium-tin-oxide with fluorinated-tin-oxide analogs.}, }
@article {pmid40221430, year = {2025}, author = {Ferrer Obiol, J and Bounas, A and Brambilla, M and Lombardo, G and Secomandi, S and Paris, JR and Iannucci, A and Whiting, JR and Formenti, G and Bonisoli-Alquati, A and Ficetola, GF and Galimberti, A and Balacco, J and Batbayar, N and Bragin, AE and Caprioli, M and Catry, I and Cecere, JG and Davaasuren, B and De Pascalis, F and Efrat, R and Erciyas-Yavuz, K and Gameiro, J and Gradev, G and Haase, B and Katzner, TE and Mountcastle, J and Mikulic, K and Morganti, M and Pârâu, LG and Rodríguez, A and Sarà, M and Toli, EA and Tsiopelas, N and Ciofi, C and Gianfranceschi, L and Jarvis, ED and Olivieri, A and Sotiropoulos, K and Wink, M and Trucchi, E and Torroni, A and Rubolini, D}, title = {Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {3503}, pmid = {40221430}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {LIFE17 NAT/IT/000586//EC | LIFE programme (LIFE)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Animal Migration/physiology ; *Biological Evolution ; *Falconiformes/genetics/physiology/classification ; Phylogeny ; Genetic Variation ; Europe ; }, abstract = {Accurately predicting species' responses to anthropogenic climate change is hampered by limited knowledge of their spatiotemporal ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We combine landscape genomics, demographic reconstructions, and species distribution models to assess the eco-evolutionary responses to past climate fluctuations and to future climate of an Afro-Palaearctic migratory raptor, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). We uncover two evolutionarily and ecologically distinct lineages (European and Asian), whose demographic history, evolutionary divergence, and historical distribution range were profoundly shaped by past climatic fluctuations. Using future climate projections, we find that the Asian lineage is at higher risk of range contraction, increased migration distance, climate maladaptation, and consequently greater extinction risk than the European lineage. Our results emphasise the importance of providing historical context as a baseline for understanding species' responses to contemporary climate change, and illustrate how incorporating intraspecific genetic variation improves the ecological realism of climate change vulnerability assessments.}, }
@article {pmid40219205, year = {2025}, author = {Xu, Y and Guan, BQ and Chen, R and Yi, R and Jiang, XL and Xie, KQ}, title = {Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the Camellia Subgenus Camellia in China and Providing Insights into Camellia Resources Management Under Future Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {40219205}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {21A0158//Scientific Research Fund of Hunan Provincial Education Department/ ; }, abstract = {Rapid climate change has significantly impacted species distribution patterns, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of dominant tree dynamics for effective forest resource management and utilization. The Camellia subgenus Camellia, a widely distributed taxon in subtropical China, represents an ecologically and economically important group of woody plants valued for both oil production and ornamental purposes. In this study, we employed the BIOMOD2 ensemble modeling framework to investigate the spatial distribution patterns and range dynamics of the subgenus Camellia under projected climate change scenarios. Our analysis incorporated 1455 georeferenced occurrence records from 15 species, following the filtering of duplicate points, along with seven bioclimatic variables selected after highly correlated factors were eliminated. The ensemble model, which integrates six single species distribution models, demonstrated robust predictive performance, with mean true skil l statistic (TSS) and area under curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.8. Our results identified precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) and temperature seasonality (Bio4) as the primary determinants influencing species distribution patterns. The center of species richness for the subgenus Camellia was located in the Nanling Mountains and eastern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The projections indicate an overall expansion of suitable habitats for the subgenus under future climate conditions, with notable scenario-dependent variations: distribution hotspots are predicted to increase by 8.86% under the SSP126 scenario but experience a 2.53% reduction under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, a westward shift in the distribution centroid is anticipated. To ensure long-term conservation of Camellia genetic resources, we recommend establishing a germplasm conservation center in the Nanling Mountains region, which represents a critical biodiversity hotspot for this taxon.}, }
@article {pmid40219093, year = {2025}, author = {Qaderi, MM and Evans, CC and Spicer, MD}, title = {Plant Nitrogen Assimilation: A Climate Change Perspective.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {40219093}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {N/A//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, abstract = {Of all the essential macronutrients necessary for plant growth and development, nitrogen is required in the greatest amounts. Nitrogen is a key component of important biomolecules like proteins and has high nutritive importance for humans and other animals. Climate change factors, such as increasing levels of carbon dioxide, increasing temperatures, and increasing watering regime, directly or indirectly influence plant nitrogen uptake and assimilation dynamics. The impacts of these stressors can directly threaten our primary source of nitrogen as obtained from the soil by plants. In this review, we discuss how climate change factors can influence nitrogen uptake and assimilation in cultivated plants. We examine the effects of these factors alone and in combination with species of both C3 and C4 plants. Elevated carbon dioxide, e[CO2], causes the dilution of nitrogen in tissues of non-leguminous C3 and C4 plants but can increase nitrogen in legumes. The impact of high-temperature (HT) stress varies depending on whether a species is leguminous or not. Water stress (WS) tends to result in a decrease in nitrogen assimilation. Under some, though not all, conditions, e[CO2] can have a buffering effect against the detrimental impacts of other climate change stressors, having an ameliorating effect on the adverse impacts of HT or WS. Together, HT and WS are seen to cause significant reductions in biomass production and nitrogen uptake in non-leguminous C3 and C4 crops. With a steadily rising population and rapidly changing climate, consideration must be given to the morphological and physiological effects that climate change will have on future crop health and nutritional quality of N.}, }
@article {pmid40216855, year = {2025}, author = {Novielli, P and Magarelli, M and Romano, D and Di Bitonto, P and Stellacci, AM and Monaco, A and Amoroso, N and Bellotti, R and Tangaro, S}, title = {Leveraging explainable AI to predict soil respiration sensitivity and its drivers for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {12527}, pmid = {40216855}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Soil/chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; *Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; Machine Learning ; *Artificial Intelligence ; Global Warming ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming is one of the most pressing and critical problems facing the world today. It is mainly caused by the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO2). Understanding how soils respond to rising temperatures is critical for predicting carbon release and informing climate mitigation strategies. Q10, a measure of soil microbial respiration, quantifies the increase in CO2 release caused by a [Formula: see text] Celsius rise in temperature, serving as a key indicator of this sensitivity. However, predicting Q10 across diverse soil types remains a challenge, especially when considering the complex interactions between biochemical, microbiome, and environmental factors. In this study, we applied explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to machine learning models to predict soil respiration sensitivity (Q10) and uncover the key factors driving this process. Using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values, we identified glucose-induced soil respiration and the proportion of bacteria positively associated with Q10 as the most influential predictors. Our machine learning models achieved an accuracy of [Formula: see text], precision of [Formula: see text], an AUC-ROC of [Formula: see text], and an AUC-PRC of [Formula: see text], ensuring robust and reliable predictions. By leveraging t-SNE (t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding) and clustering techniques, we further segmented low Q10 soils into distinct subgroups, identifying soils with a higher probability of transitioning to high Q10 states. Our findings not only highlight the potential of XAI in making model predictions transparent and interpretable, but also provide actionable insights into managing soil carbon release in response to climate change. This research bridges the gap between AI-driven environmental modeling and practical applications in agriculture, offering new directions for targeted soil management and climate resilience strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40215990, year = {2025}, author = {Furlow, B}, title = {Climate change fuels deadly dust storms worldwide.}, journal = {The Lancet. Respiratory medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-2600(25)00123-7}, pmid = {40215990}, issn = {2213-2619}, }
@article {pmid40215464, year = {2025}, author = {Bowen, CD and Coscia, KA and Aadnes, MG and Summersill, AR and Barnes, ME}, title = {Undergraduate Biology Students' Climate Change Communication Experiences Indicate a Need for Discipline-Based Education Research on Science Communication Education about Culturally Controversial Science Topics.}, journal = {CBE life sciences education}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {ar24}, doi = {10.1187/cbe.23-07-0134}, pmid = {40215464}, issn = {1931-7913}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communication ; Humans ; *Students ; *Biology/education ; *Science/education ; Universities ; Female ; *Research ; Male ; *Culture ; }, abstract = {Science communication is a key skill for undergraduates, but little research explores how biology students communicate about societally important, yet controversial topics like climate change. In this study, we explored whether and how biology students took on the role of science communicators about climate change. We surveyed 191 biology students at 38 universities about their climate change communication frequency and preparedness. We interviewed 25 of the survey participants about their experiences communicating about climate change and their needs when learning about climate change communication. We found that students were communicating about climate change and felt confident discussing the causes and effects of climate change, but they were less confident discussing the solutions to climate change. Students tended to "preach to the choir" by mostly communicating with those who already accepted climate change and avoiding interacting with others who disagreed with them about climate change. Students described a lack of science communication training but had a desire to be taught effective communication skills. Our interviews indicate that if these students felt more prepared to communicate, it may make them more willing to discuss climate change and particularly with people who have different views from them.}, }
@article {pmid40212950, year = {2024}, author = {Jones, JL and Berube, DM and Cuchiara, M and Grieger, K and Hubal, EAC and Karikó, SJ and Strader, P and Theriault, Y}, title = {Positioning nanotechnology to address climate change.}, journal = {Environment systems &amp; decisions}, volume = {44}, number = {}, pages = {1039-1053}, pmid = {40212950}, issn = {2194-5411}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {One of society's most pressing challenges in the twenty-first century is that of climate change. In fact, climate change is seen as the most defining issue of our time as we are witness to an anthropogenic perturbation in geology and earth sciences of global scale. To move forward in this new era, solutions will be sought to both mitigate the effects of climate change (e.g., reduce greenhouse gasses) as well as adapt and build resilience (e.g., improve infrastructure and agriculture to resist damage from extreme weather or floods). The immediacy of the needed solutions dictates that the response must use the full force of society's current knowledge base, science, technology, and innovation. Nanotechnology, an enabling technology that has matured over the past few decades and now considered for general-purpose and mass use, is ideal for addressing climate change and its impacts. To position nanotechnology to address such complex challenges, this Perspective integrates collective insights from a broad range of viewpoints and presents recommendations for how research can be motivated and scoped, organized, and implemented to achieve beneficial outcomes and innovations in the most efficient ways. While this Perspective was created with a focus on the research landscape within the United States, the findings are also relevant in other international contexts. Research that can effectively advance nanotechnology solutions will be use-inspired basic research, incorporate systems-level thinking, apply a convergence research approach, engage stakeholders, and require advanced nanotechnology infrastructure. By illuminating this compelling and complex research topic, this Perspective aims to direct, inform, and accelerate needed actions in the research community to advance nanotechnology solutions for addressing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40212925, year = {2025}, author = {Li, M and Sun, Y and Yang, Y and Zhang, X}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on the Habitat Distribution of Metasequoia glyptostroboides.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e71269}, pmid = {40212925}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Extensive evidence supports that global climate change influences shifts in species habitats due to alterations in hydrothermal conditions; however, neglecting dispersal capacities and limits significantly heightens uncertainties regarding spatial distribution patterns among different organisms. In this study, we compared the spatial distribution of Metasequoia glyptostroboides Hu &amp; W.C. Cheng (M. glyptostroboides) in the current Anthropocene context to that in a climate-only context, providing new insights into the effects of climate change, dispersal potential, and dispersal barriers on the habitat changes for M. glyptostroboides. By utilizing optimized MaxEnt and MigClim models, we predicted Mid-Holocene (MH) conditions and potential colonizable habitats under three emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) for both the medium and long term. We also assessed habitat distribution and variation differences in future warm-wet conditions and the Anthropocene context. The results revealed that (1) The Precipitation of driest month (BIO14), Mean diurnal range (Bio2) and human footprint (HFP) are the primary factors influencing the expansion or contraction of the habitats of M. glyptostroboides. Human footprint, farmland, roads, and construction land are the main contributors to habitat loss and fragmentation. (2) Habitats of M. glyptostroboides are expected to experience significant loss in the future. There is potential for recovery in South China under the SSP126 emission scenario, but human activities may hinder this recovery. Moderate human intervention is necessary in regions, such as Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, and Sichuan basins. (3) Due to human influence, the habitat and high-suitability areas for M. glyptostroboides are projected to migrate northeastward. Under the SSP126 scenario, a trend of reverse migration may be observed in the long term. This study minimizes the uncertainty in predicting species distribution under climate change while providing theoretical support for future habitat conservation of M. glyptostroboides.}, }
@article {pmid40212806, year = {2025}, author = {Muhammad, I and Steinberg, F and Larsen, J and Rucker, RB}, title = {Global warming and obesity: External heat exposure as a modulator of energy balance.}, journal = {FASEB bioAdvances}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {e1487}, pmid = {40212806}, issn = {2573-9832}, abstract = {In obesity research, the importance of core body temperature (CBT) regulation is often neglected. CBT thermogenic regulation, however, plays a crucial role in heat management through convection, radiation, and conduction processes to remove heat from the body, as well as metabolic processes that sequester heat through lipogenesis. This review emphasizes that even small changes in CBT can significantly impact metabolic events ranging from ATP production to fat deposition. Accordingly, a case is made that physical events, such as external heat exposure, also impact body compositional changes, as do work and metabolic processes. Examples are provided that suggest that independent diet and exercise, where one lives, can have an impact on body composition and obesity. For example, below 35 degrees of the earth's latitude, obesity rates are often 40 percent or greater among adults. However, in regions between 45 and 50 degrees latitude, such as the US-Canadian border, obesity rates are 25%-30%.}, }
@article {pmid40211919, year = {2025}, author = {Katz, GM and Jain, A and Kokorelias, KM and Stall, NM}, title = {Prioritization of Older Adults in Canadian Climate Change Adaptation Policies: A Policy Document Analysis.}, journal = {Journal of the American Geriatrics Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jgs.19471}, pmid = {40211919}, issn = {1532-5415}, support = {//Sinai Health and UHN's Healthy Ageing and Geriatrics Research Fund/ ; //University of Toronto Summer Older Adult Research (SOAR) Experience Award/ ; }, }
@article {pmid40210652, year = {2025}, author = {Gu, X and Jiang, Z and Guan, Y and Luo, M and Li, J and Wang, L and Zhang, X and Kong, D and Wang, L}, title = {Frequent land-ocean transboundary migration of tropical heatwaves under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {3400}, pmid = {40210652}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {2023YFE0103900//Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology)/ ; 2023YFF0807000//Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology)/ ; U2340230//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 42371041//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 42461144214//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic warming has exacerbated atmospheric heatwaves globally, yet the transboundary migration of heatwaves between land and ocean, along with the anthropogenic influence on this process, remain unclear. Here, we employ a Lagrangian tracking approach to identify and track spatiotemporally contiguous warm-season heatwaves in both reanalyses and simulations. This way, we show that land-ocean transboundary heatwaves, especially in the tropics, exhibit longer persistence, wider areal extent, and greater intensity than those confined to land or ocean. These transboundary migrations are primarily driven by the movement of high-pressure systems (such as the westward extension of subtropical highs) and the propagation of Rossby waves. Associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the frequency of tropical heatwave migrations has increased over the past four decades, and is projected to accelerate further in the twenty-first century under the high-emissions scenario. Anthropogenically-driven landward migrations are amplified by stronger landward winds that drive heat advection, while oceanward processes are likely intensified by increased land-ocean temperature gradient. These intensified transboundary heatwaves not only accentuate humid heat risks for humans but also threaten ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid40208995, year = {2025}, author = {Chandrashekhar, V}, title = {A global warming 'hole' where you'd least expect it.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {388}, number = {6743}, pages = {136}, doi = {10.1126/science.ady0872}, pmid = {40208995}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {India has so far warmed at about half the global average. Scientists aren't sure why.}, }
@article {pmid40208668, year = {2025}, author = {Skogeng, LP and Blévin, P and Breivik, K and Bustnes, JO and Eulaers, I and Sagerup, K and Krogseth, IS}, title = {Investigating the impact of climate change on PCB-153 exposure in Arctic seabirds with the nested exposure model.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1039/d4em00584h}, pmid = {40208668}, issn = {2050-7895}, abstract = {At the same time Arctic ecosystems experiences rapid climate change, at a rate four times faster than the global average, they remain burdened by long-range transported pollution, notably with legacy polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The present study investigates the potential impact of climate change on seabird exposure to PCB-153 using the established Nested Exposure Model (NEM), here expanded with three seabird species, i.e. common eider (Somateria mollissima), black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) and glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus), as well as the filter feeder blue mussel (Mytulis edulis). The model's performance was evaluated using empirical time trends of the seabird species in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard, and using tissue concentrations from filter feeders along the northern Norwegian coast. NEM successfully replicated empirical PCB-153 concentrations, confirming its ability to simulate PCB-153 bioaccumulation in the studied seabird species within an order of magnitude. Based on global PCB-153 emission estimates, simulations run until the year 2100 predicted seabird blood concentrations 99% lower than in year 2000. Model scenarios with climate change-induced altered dietary composition and lipid dynamics showed to have minimal impact on future PCB-153 exposure, compared to temporal changes in primary emissions of PCB-153. The present study suggests the potential of mechanistic modelling in assessing POP exposure in Arctic seabirds within a multiple stressor context.}, }
@article {pmid40208549, year = {2025}, author = {O'Keeffe, S and Stein, S and Curran, M and Baumgart, L and Zikeli, S and Siegmund-Schultze, M}, title = {How to square the circle? A conceptual framework synergising strategies for circular agriculture to tackle climate change and enhance overall on-farm sustainability.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40208549}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {771134//Cofund Era-Nets SusCrop/ ; 696356//FACCE ERA-GAS/ ; 862665//ICT-AGRI-FOOD/ ; 696231//SusAn/ ; CRSII5_202300//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung/ ; 40B2-0_203539//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung/ ; }, abstract = {There is an urgent need to change the current extractive and resource-intensive agricultural practices. Adopting circular practices within the agricultural system could provide multiple benefits of slowing global climate change, reducing extractive practices and helping farmers to adapt to a changing climate. However, there are still many barriers for farmers to adopt these desired circular agriculture (CA) practices, among others, a lack of information about on-farm circular practices. There is a need to support farmers in recognising which strategies can increase the circularity of their farm and what this means in terms of their farms' climate neutrality and its long-term sustainability. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to develop a novel conceptual framework to facilitate a broader and integrated understanding of how on-farm CA strategies and practices contribute to the goals of climate change mitigation and on-farm sustainability, thus supporting farmers in transitioning their farms towards greater circularity.}, }
@article {pmid40208366, year = {2025}, author = {Bano, F and Mishra, H and Kantharajan, G and Kanaujiya, S and Singh, RK and Sarkar, UK}, title = {Unravelling reproductive biology of the striped gourami, Trichogaster fasciata (Bloch and Schneider, 1801) with reference to climate change and implications on breeding phenology in Ganges basin, India.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40208366}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {PDF/2023/000377//DST-SERB: National Post Doctoral Fellowship/ ; }, abstract = {The present study explores the reproductive characteristics and breeding phenology of striped gourami, Trichogaster fasciata from river Gomti, a tributary of river Ganges, India in relation to eco-climatic variables. The calculated size at sexual maturity (Lm) is approximately 5.2 cm. The hydrological parameters such as temperature, pH and DO were found to be falling between 27-32 ºC, 6.30-6.87 and 2.22-3.81 mg/L, respectively. We found that striped gouramis can reproduce after even less precipitation (< 126 mm) throughout a broad range of temperatures. The reproductive period was initiated when the temperature exceeded 29 ºC and is considered to be favorable as it triggered the spawning which was peaked in July. The climatic data spanning 40 years (1983-2023) showed a gradual increase in average air temperature-maximum of 0.11 °C per year and an annual drop in rainfall by 2.49 mm. However, the results implies that there is a considerably low risk of climate change impact on the breeding phenology of T. fasciata in the near future. The baseline data could be used as a future point of reference for evaluating the effects of climate change on the reproductive ecology from a regional perspective. Further this knowledge is vital for protecting wild fish genetic resources through implementing sustainable management plans within the Ganga basin, which will help mitigate the possible effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40204765, year = {2025}, author = {Medina, RG and Domínguez, M}, title = {Vulnerability of Gubernatrix cristata to climate change, anthropogenic pressures, and hybridization threats.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {12152}, pmid = {40204765}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Endangered Species ; Ecosystem ; *Anthropogenic Effects ; Extinction, Biological ; *Hybridization, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Estimating extinction risk is challenging due to insufficient data on current and future threats. This study develops a framework incorporating the impacts of climate change, anthropogenic pressures, and biotic interactions for assessing extinction risks using the endangered Yellow Cardinal (Gubernatrix cristata) as a case study. Using ecological niche modeling (ENM) with occurrences, climate, and land use data, we projected current and future distributions of G. cristata, identifying key constraints for its occurrence. Field validation through a citizen science initiative contributed new presence records, supporting our model's predictions. Currently, 4.50% of cardinal's suitable areas overlap with areas of high anthropic pressures, while 27.04% are in contact with the hybridizing species Diuca diuca. Future projections predict a 60% shift in the cardinal's distribution, exacerbating its vulnerability due to greater overlap with areas of high anthropic pressures and reduced presence in protected areas. We identified key risk areas on the distribution's periphery, vulnerable to geographic range loss and increased interaction with D. diuca due to climate change. Targeted management actions are recommended to mitigate further degradation. This study illustrates the potential of integrating citizen science, ENM, and anthropogenic and biotic pressures to develop conservation strategies, offering a versatile, universally applicable framework crucial for global biodiversity and conservation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid40203095, year = {2025}, author = {Liang, S and Ziegler, AD and Reich, PB and Zhu, K and Wang, D and Jiang, X and Chen, D and Ciais, P and Zeng, Z}, title = {Climate mitigation potential for targeted forestation after considering climate change, fires, and albedo.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {11}, number = {15}, pages = {eadn7915}, pmid = {40203095}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Afforestation and reforestation, both of which refer to forestation strategies, are widely promoted as key tools to mitigate anthropogenic warming. However, the carbon sequestration potential of these efforts remains uncertain in satellite-based assessments, particularly when accounting for dynamic climate conditions, vegetation-climate feedback, fire-dominated disturbance, and the trade-offs associated with surface albedo changes. Leveraging a coupled Earth system model, we estimated that global forestation mitigates 31.3 to 69.2 Pg Ceq (carbon equivalent) during 2021-2100 under a sustainable shared socioeconomic pathway. Regionally, the highest carbon mitigation potential of forestation concentrates in tropical areas, while mid-high-latitude regions demonstrate higher heterogeneity, highlighting the need for region-specific strategies and further refinement of nature-based mitigation plans. Our findings underscore the importance of considering disturbances and minimizing adverse albedo changes when estimating the carbon mitigation potential of forestation initiatives. We also advocate for the development of consistent, high-resolution maps of suitable areas for targeted forestation, avoiding environmentally sensitive lands and potential conflicts with other human activities.}, }
@article {pmid40202242, year = {2025}, author = {Ferrante, L and Baccaro, FB and Kaefer, IL and Diele-Viegas, LM and Getirana, A and Haddad, CFB and Schiesari, LC and Fearnside, PM}, title = {Effects of climate change and El Niño anomalies on historical declines, extinctions, and disease emergence in Brazilian amphibians.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e70024}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.70024}, pmid = {40202242}, issn = {1523-1739}, support = {01.02.016301.04319/2023-42//Amazonas State Reasearch Foundation (FAPEAM)/ ; 01.02.016301.02529/2024-87//Amazonas State Reasearch Foundation (FAPEAM)/ ; 2021/10639-5//S&#xe3;o Paulo Reasearch Foundation - FAPESP/ ; 2023/06677-4//S&#xe3;o Paulo Reasearch Foundation - FAPESP/ ; 311103/2015-4//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (CNPq)/ ; 406941/2022-0//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (CNPq)/ ; FINE/RedeClima01.13.0353-00//Rede Clima/ ; }, abstract = {Amphibian declines, linked to climate change and disease, pose a global challenge, yet their primary drivers remain debated. We investigated the historical decline of Brazilian amphibians by assessing the influence of climate change, extreme weather events, and the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Our analysis encompassed 90 amphibian species over more than a century (1900-2014). We integrated historical climate data-including El Niño anomalies and Southern Hemisphere temperature records-with documented extreme weather events and amphibian population trends. We used Granger causality tests to assess the potential of various factors to forecast anuran population declines and extinctions in Brazil and structural equation models to evaluate the relationships between the variables of interest. We identified gradual climate change and extreme weather events, particularly El Niño-driven temperature anomalies, as the primary drivers of amphibian population declines in Brazil. The structural equation models supported these findings and showed that climate-driven stressors significantly contribute to population crashes and increase Bd infections. However, Bd infections peaked years after population declines, suggesting that the fungus acts as an opportunistic pathogen rather than a primary driver of amphibian losses in Brazil. These findings challenge the prevailing view that Bd is the main cause of declines, instead highlighting climate anomalies and extreme weather events as the predominant factors.}, }
@article {pmid40202095, year = {2025}, author = {Šigutová, H and Pyszko, P and Bílková, E and Dolný, A}, title = {Highly Conserved Ecosystems Facing Climate Change: Rapid Shifts in Odonata Assemblages of Central European Bogs.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {4}, pages = {e70183}, pmid = {40202095}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Odonata/physiology ; *Wetlands ; Phylogeny ; Europe ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Freshwater diversity is declining at an alarming rate worldwide, and climate change is a key driver. However, attributing biological shifts solely to climate warming remains challenging because of confounding anthropogenic stressors. Peatbogs, being highly conserved, strictly protected, and minimally disturbed, offer a unique study system to isolate climate effects. We compared odonate assemblages in 27 Central European raised and transitional bogs between two sets of standardized surveys approximately 20 years apart (1998-2006 and 2020-2024). During this period, the mean annual air temperature has increased by 1.23°C. We tracked species richness, composition, taxonomic diversity, and functional traits (thermal tolerance, conservation value indicators, and selected morphological and life-history traits) and also examined phylogenetic patterns of species turnover. Although species richness remained stable, assemblage composition shifted markedly from cold-adapted, vulnerable bog specialists toward warm-adapted habitat generalists with lower conservation value. Notably, Ponto-Mediterranean species and those with a lower upper elevational limit increased their occupancy. Although the phylogenetic signal across the evolutionary tree of odonates was low, implying that the responses of the species to climate change were independent of their phylogenetic position, we revealed frequent genus-level replacements. These findings reinforce the position of odonates as a model group for detecting climate-driven changes in freshwater communities. Our study has revealed that climate warming alone can trigger profound reorganization of insect communities in inherently stable peatbog habitats. Specific traits linked to vulnerability (e.g., thermal index, red list status) and specialization proved to be promising predictors of future shifts in odonatofauna of temperate peatlands. The pronounced changes documented here may precede irreversible transformations of these unique ecosystems, highlighting the urgency of monitoring bog habitats and maintaining their stability under ongoing global change.}, }
@article {pmid40201753, year = {2025}, author = {Pinho, M}, title = {The role of parental identity in experiencing climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behaviors.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1579893}, pmid = {40201753}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is one of society's most severe crisis, presenting a health threat to humans with serious impacts on mental health. Climate anxiety has been identified as an important mental health consequence of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: The current study examined the role of social psychological characteristics on climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behavior, using a nationally representative sample of Portuguese parents who completed extensive questionnaires.<br><br>RESULTS: More central parental identities negatively correlated with and predicted climate change anxiety, revealing that a central parental identity can be a protective factor against mental health issues. Parental identity centrality also predicted greater engagement in pro-environmental behavior. The findings further showed that environmental identity and climate change perceptions were positively related and predicted higher levels climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behavior. Finally, parental identity centrality was linked to greater pro-environmental behavior through climate change anxiety, bringing important contributions to research on the underlying mechanisms that shape pro-environmental behavior.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The findings shed light on the complex mechanisms underlying and influencing climate anxiety and pro-environmental behavior, necessary to mitigate the acute consequences of the climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid40201418, year = {2025}, author = {Lippa, MN and Tarolli, P and Straffelini, E}, title = {Climate change impacts and the reshaping of Canadian viticulture.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {111941}, pmid = {40201418}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Shifting climate patterns across wine-growing areas of Ontario, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and Quebec are driving the development of new viticultural potential within established Canadian wine regions. Changing trends of critical climatic variables and indices, such as near-surface temperature (NST) and growing degree days, indicate that growing conditions are changing. This research assesses NST and seasonal precipitation trends from 1994 to 2100 for Canadian viticulture, focusing on the primary established growing regions. Using multi-model CMIP6 spatial-temporal averages from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset available on Google Earth Engine, this research aims to understand future NST and seasonal precipitation trends with climate scenarios SSP245 and SSP585 and discuss possible effects on viticulture on a near-term (2015-2050) and long-term (2050-2100) basis. Minimum, average, and maximum NST trends demonstrated statistically significant increases across all regions, with similar increasing precipitation trends across the growing season. Increasing trends, especially trends of extreme temperature, can all influence grape quality and, ultimately, wine quality. Outcomes suggest warmer growing climates, which may benefit wine producers, but the increasing frequency of extreme climate-change-related events such as drought, heatwaves, or extreme rainfall suggests potential future challenges that will require careful management.}, }
@article {pmid40201247, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, T and Sun, C and Yang, Z}, title = {Retraction notice to "Climate change and sustainable agricultural growth in the sahel region: Mitigating or resilient policy response?" [Heliyon 9 (2023) e19839].}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e42834}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2025.e42834}, pmid = {40201247}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {[This retracts the article DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19839.].}, }
@article {pmid40200859, year = {2025}, author = {Pershad, AR and Krishnan, R and Lee, E and Gardiner, L and Hughes, E and Tummala, N}, title = {How Climate Change Is Impacting Allergic Rhinitis: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {The Laryngoscope}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/lary.32124}, pmid = {40200859}, issn = {1531-4995}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The impact of climate change on health has become an increasingly widespread global health concern. This impact is especially relevant in the field of Otolaryngology; global warming has been shown to affect inflammatory upper airway disease, specifically allergic rhinitis (AR). This study aims to characterize the effect of climate change on the epidemiology of AR in adult and pediatric populations globally.<br><br>DATA SOURCES: In accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, a literature search was performed across four databases. Inclusion criteria were: (1) published in English, (2) published between 2000 and 2023, (3) reported on the current epidemiological state of AR, (4) described factors related to climate change, and (5) observed global warming affecting allergy season and AR symptoms.<br><br>REVIEW METHODS: Two reviewers screened articles and performed full-text reviews.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 502 articles assessed, 30 studies were eligible for inclusion. Sixteen studies reported longer pollen seasons and/or higher pollen concentrations related to climate change, with two projecting total pollen emissions to increase by 16-40% and pollen season length to increase by 19&#x2009;days in North America. Four studies reported an increase in AR-related healthcare usage; low-income residents were most impacted by increased usage. Two studies identified that healthcare professionals want more education on climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our scoping review highlights how climate change is altering pollen seasons and concentrations, AR disease prevalence, allergy sensitization, and AR symptom severity. Health professionals have expressed an understanding of climate change's impact on health and a desire for further education.<br><br>LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: N/A.}, }
@article {pmid40199489, year = {2025}, author = {Elmer, A and Grah, C and Kirstein, S and Walterspacher, S and Weirich, A}, title = {[Respiratory medicine in climate change].}, journal = {Pneumologie (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1055/a-2512-2993}, pmid = {40199489}, issn = {1438-8790}, abstract = {DGP pneumologists advocate measures for adaptation, prevention and the implementation of sustainable health care. To protect patients and mitigate the health threat posed by climate change, resilient systems should be built. To protect lung health, they call for action to counteract rising temperatures and the development of extreme weather events, and for further reductions in air pollution. They point out particularly vulnerable population groups that need to be protected.}, }
@article {pmid40198742, year = {2025}, author = {Choi, H and Lee, CH}, title = {The impact of climate change on ecology of tick associated with tick-borne diseases.}, journal = {PLoS computational biology}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {e1012903}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012903}, pmid = {40198742}, issn = {1553-7358}, abstract = {Infectious diseases have caused significant economic and human losses worldwide. Growing concerns exist regarding climate change potentially exacerbating the spread of these diseases, particularly those transmitted by vectors such as ticks and mosquitoes. Tick-borne diseases, such as Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (SFTS), can be particularly detrimental to elderly and immunocompromised individuals. This study utilizes a mathematical modeling approach to predict changes in tick populations under climate change scenarios, incorporating tick ecology and climate-sensitive parameters. Sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the factors influencing tick population dynamics. The study further explores effective tick control strategies and their cost-effectiveness in the context of climate change. The findings indicate that the efficacy of tick population reduction varies greatly depending on the timing of control measure implementation and the effectiveness of the control strategies exhibits a strong dependence on the duration of implementation. Furthermore, as climate change intensifies, tick populations are projected to increase, leading to a rise in control costs and SFTS cases. In light of these findings, identifying and implementing appropriate control measures to manage tick populations under climate change will be increasingly crucial.}, }
@article {pmid40198708, year = {2025}, author = {Immorlano, F and Eyring, V and le Monnier de Gouville, T and Accarino, G and Elia, D and Mandt, S and Aloisio, G and Gentine, P}, title = {Transferring climate change physical knowledge.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {15}, pages = {e2413503122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2413503122}, pmid = {40198708}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {855187//EC | European Research Council (ERC)/ ; 681228//EC | Horizon Europe | Excellent Science | HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)/ ; }, abstract = {Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and feedbacks, yet those methods cannot capture the nonlinear complexity inherent in the climate system. Using a Transfer Learning approach, we show that Machine Learning can be used to optimally leverage and merge the knowledge gained from global temperature maps simulated by Earth system models and observed in the historical period to reduce the spread of global surface air temperature fields projected in the 21st century. We reach an uncertainty reduction of more than 50% with respect to state-of-the-art approaches while giving evidence that our method provides improved regional temperature patterns together with narrower projections uncertainty, urgently required for climate adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid40198692, year = {2025}, author = {Cuartas, J and Vergunst, F}, title = {Nurturing care as a critical buffer against climate change impacts on child development.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {e0004441}, pmid = {40198692}, issn = {2767-3375}, abstract = {We examine empirical and conceptual considerations related to the role of nurturing care for protecting human capital formation in the context of climate change. Climate change is a pressing global challenge. Heatwaves, wildfires, storms, and floods are becoming more frequent and severe, and their direct impact and aftermath can have long-lasting negative effects on employment, education, healthcare, and access to essential services. Children are particularly vulnerable to these harms due to their developmental immaturity and limited capacity to mitigate and avoid risks [1,2]. Consequently, parents and other adult primary caregivers - such as grandparents, relatives, and foster parents (hereafter "caregivers") - provide the primary buffer between climate hazards and adverse developmental outcomes. They do this through nurturing care, defined as the provision of stable environments that promote children's health and nutrition, safety and security, opportunities for learning, and emotionally supportive relationships [3]. Despite the central role of nurturing care for children's life outcomes, it rarely appears in climate change research and policy discourse.}, }
@article {pmid40198669, year = {2025}, author = {Segerberg, A and Magnani, M}, title = {Visual digital intermediaries and global climate communication: Is climate change still a distant problem on YouTube?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {e0318338}, pmid = {40198669}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Social Media ; Humans ; *Communication ; }, abstract = {This article addresses the role of digital intermediaries in visual climate communication, and specifically their contribution to the persistence of a 'green ghetto' of traditional communicators and repertoires online. We argue for a comparative sensibility: global platforms convey global issues to global audiences, yet the same platform may distribute conditions of visibility for compelling communication unevenly around the world. The study analyses how a major global visual platform, YouTube (Search), articulates climate change in 232 countries in their official languages. It combines API research, channel coding and computational image analysis to assess the processing and presentation of top-ranked results with respect to their diversity and proximity to local context. The findings show that YouTube Search establishes visibility winners who typically sustain the classic visual repertoire of climate change as a distant problem, and that Global North sources dominate irrespective of region. However, there are notable exceptions to these patterns.}, }
@article {pmid40197960, year = {2025}, author = {Muthukrishnan, R and Smiley, TM and Title, PO and Fudickar, AM and Jahn, AE and Lau, JA}, title = {Chasing the Niche: Escaping Climate Change Threats in Place, Time, and Space.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {4}, pages = {e70167}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.70167}, pmid = {40197960}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Indiana University/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; }, abstract = {Climate change is creating mismatches between species' current environments and their historical niches. Locations that once had the abiotic and biotic conditions to support the persistence of a species may now be too warm, too dry, or simply too different, to meet their niche requirements. Changes in behaviors, altered phenology, and range shifts are common responses to climate change. Though these responses are often studied in isolation by scientists from disparate subfields of ecology, they all represent variants of the same solution-strategies to realign the conditions populations experience with their niche. Here, we aim to (1) identify the physiological and ecological effects, and potential alignment, of these three ecological responses: shifts in behavior, phenology, or ranges, (2) determine the circumstances under which each type of response may be more or less effective at mitigating the effects of climate change, and (3) consider how these strategies might interact with each other. Each response has been previously reviewed, but efforts to consider relationships between ecological (or with evolutionary) responses have been limited. A synthetic perspective that considers the similarities among ecological responses and how they interact with each other and with evolutionary responses offers a more robust view on species' resilience to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40196676, year = {2025}, author = {Lyberger, K and Robinson, AR and Couper, L and Delwel, I and Glidden, C and Qian, C and Burslem, A and Fernandez, F and Gao, B and Garcia, G and Gomez, J and Griffin, C and Jackson, S and King, A and Manes, O and Song, A and Tran, E and Mordecai, EA}, title = {A systematic review of climate-change driven range shifts in mosquito vectors.}, journal = {bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1101/2025.03.25.645279}, pmid = {40196676}, issn = {2692-8205}, abstract = {As global temperatures rise, concerns about shifting mosquito ranges-and accompanying changes in the transmission of malaria, dengue, and other diseases-are mounting. However, systematic evidence for climate-driven changes in mosquito ranges remains limited. We conducted a systematic review of studies documenting expansions or contractions in medically important mosquito species. In total, 178 studies on six continents identified range expansions in 118 mosquito species. While over a third of these studies cited warming as a driver, fewer than 10% performed statistical tests of the role of climate. Instead, most expansions were linked to human-aided dispersal (e.g., trade, travel), land-use changes, and urbanization. Although several studies reported poleward or upward expansions consistent with climate warming, none demonstrated warm-edge contractions driven by rising temperatures, which are theoretically predicted in some settings. Rather than expanding into newly suitable areas, many expansions appear to be filling preexisting thermally suitable habitats. Our findings highlight the need for long-term mosquito monitoring, rigorous climate-attribution methods, and better documentation of confounding factors like land-use change and vector control efforts to disentangle climate-driven changes from other anthropogenic factors.}, }
@article {pmid40195557, year = {2025}, author = {Ji, JS}, title = {Health is the landing zone for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Nature human behaviour}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40195557}, issn = {2397-3374}, }
@article {pmid40194848, year = {2025}, author = {Collery, A and Niedzwiedz, CL}, title = {Climate change worry and the association with future depression and anxiety: cross-national analysis of 11 European countries.}, journal = {BMJ mental health}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {40194848}, issn = {2755-9734}, mesh = {Europe/epidemiology ; *Forecasting ; *Climate Change ; *Depression/epidemiology/psychology ; *Anxiety/epidemiology/psychology ; Risk Factors ; *Sleep Wake Disorders/epidemiology/psychology ; Longitudinal Studies ; Logistic Models ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Confounding Factors, Epidemiologic ; Datasets as Topic ; Secondary Data Analysis ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change affects people's mental health directly and indirectly. Climate anxiety, characterised by persistent worry and distress about environmental changes, is increasingly recognised as a factor affecting mental well-being. This study focused on potential implications of climate change worry for mental health.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To assess whether climate change worry is associated with an increased risk of depression, anxiety and sleep disturbance across European countries.<br><br>METHODS: The study used longitudinal data from the European Social Survey-10 (2020-2022) and the follow-up CROss-National Online Survey 2 wave 4 (2022). A total of 5155 participants across 11 European countries were included in the analysis. Logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between climate change worry and mental health outcomes (anxiety, depression and sleep), adjusting for potential confounding factors. Stratified analyses were conducted to assess variations between countries.<br><br>FINDINGS: Climate change worry was associated with increased risk of anxiety (OR: 1.38, 95%&#x2009;CI: 1.13 to 1.68), but not depression (OR: 1.10, 95%&#x2009;CI: 0.94 to 1.29), or sleep disturbance (OR: 1.08, 95%&#x2009;CI: 0.92 to 1.27), in pooled analyses across countries. Country-specific analyses revealed notable differences, with the strongest associations between climate worry and anxiety observed in Slovenia and Italy.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the psychological impact of climate change worry is not uniform across Europe and may be influenced by national policies, environmental risks and sociocultural factors. Given the varying effects across countries, policy-makers should consider contextual factors when designing strategies to address climate anxiety. Integrating mental health considerations into climate policies may enhance public engagement and resilience in the face of environmental challenges.<br><br>CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Traditional therapeutic approaches may not fully capture the unique distress associated with environmental worries, necessitating the development of specialised interventions that validate individuals' concerns while equipping them with coping mechanisms.}, }
@article {pmid40194694, year = {2025}, author = {Salvadori, M and Singh, D and Mathews, K and Girardello, L and Cortellini, M and Emirova, A and Pacchetti, I and Foti, M and Puviani, V and Poli, G and Rony, F}, title = {The low global warming potential propellant HFA-152a does not induce bronchoconstriction or impair mucociliary clearance.}, journal = {Pulmonary pharmacology &amp; therapeutics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {102358}, doi = {10.1016/j.pupt.2025.102358}, pmid = {40194694}, issn = {1522-9629}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Use of propellants with high global warming potential (e.g., HFA-134a) for pressurised metered-dose inhalers is being phased down. An alternative is reformulation using propellants with low global warming potential (e.g., HFA-152a), which requires evaluation of the propellant's safety, in particular whether it induces bronchoconstriction or impairs mucociliary clearance (MCC). In this manuscript, we describe two studies, the first comparing the bronchoconstriction potential of HFA-152a vs HFA-134a, the second comparing their effect on MCC.<br><br>METHODS: The bronchoconstriction study was single-dose, randomised, double-blind, controlled, crossover, in adults with asthma. The primary endpoint was relative change from baseline in forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1) at 15 min post-dose. The MCC study was multiple-dose (8 days), randomised, open-label, controlled, crossover, in healthy volunteers. The primary endpoint was percent particle retention in the right whole lung at 2 and 4 h after inhalation of radiolabelled particles (PPR2 and PPR4).<br><br>RESULTS: For the bronchoconstriction study (N=25), the 95% CI of the adjusted mean FEV1 difference between HFA-152a vs HFA-134a at 15 min post-dose was within the -10% to +10% equivalence limit (1.86% [95% CI -0.48%, 4.20%]; p=0.113). Treatment-emergent adverse events were reported by 4.0% (HFA-152a) and 12.0% (HFA-134a) patients, all mild or moderate in intensity, and none serious. For the MCC study (N=20), the 95% CIs for the adjusted mean differences between HFA-152a vs HFA-134a at Day 8 contained 0 for both PPR2 (1.36 [-2.28, 4.99]%; p=0.442) and PPR4 (0.70 [-1.73, 3.12]%; p=0.553). A similar proportion of subjects had treatment-emergent adverse events (25.0% vs 35.0%), all mild in intensity, and none serious.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These two studies suggest a switch in propellant from HFA-134a to HFA-152a is unlikely to induce post-dose bronchoconstriction in asthma or impact lung MCC, and is not accompanied by any safety concerns.}, }
@article {pmid40194506, year = {2025}, author = {Chakraborty, R and Rehman, RU and Siddiqui, MW and Liu, H and Seth, CS}, title = {Phytohormones: Heart of plants' signaling network under biotic, abiotic, and climate change stresses.}, journal = {Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB}, volume = {223}, number = {}, pages = {109839}, doi = {10.1016/j.plaphy.2025.109839}, pmid = {40194506}, issn = {1873-2690}, abstract = {Industrialization has made the world increasingly unstable, subjecting plants to various constraints. As a consequence, plants are constantly experiencing biological, environmental, and climatic constraints, necessitating defense mechanisms to ensure their survival. Plants are vulnerable to various biotic factors, including insects, pathogens (bacterial, fungal, viral, and nematodes), weeds, and herbivores. They also face different abiotic and climate change challenges such as drought (regulated by genes like GH3, DREB, ZIFL1;3, etc), salinity, heavy metals, metalloids, ultraviolet radiations (UV), ozone (O3), low and high temperature (chilling/cold/freezing/heat), carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and flooding/hypoxia/anoxia. Different transcriptional factors, such as KNOX1, PYK10, and NRP1, regulate these abiotic and climate change stresses. Different phytohormones such as auxin (regulated by components AUX/IAA3, PIN, indole-glucosinolate, indole-3-acetaldoxine), gibberellin (key elements involved in the synthesis and signaling such as DELLA, GA3ox, RhHB1), cytokinin (signaling through ARR5), ethylene (involved transcription factors like AP2/ERF), abscisic acid (signaling regulated through SnRK2), salicylic acid, jasmonic acid (regulated by JAZ1/TIFYIOA), brassinosteroids, nitric oxide, and strigolactones (synthetic precursor being GR24) control plants' maturation in normal and stressed conditions by regulating various metabolic and physiological plant activities. Phytohormonal interactions and their synergy are often assessed by different techniques and assays such as CRISPR/Cas9, ELISA, RIA, luciferase, GAL4, and mEmerald GFP. Their synthesis and signaling are regulated by various genes (such as YUCCA1, YUCCA5, GA3ox, etc), transporters (PIN, such as PIN, ABCB, NPF, etc), and receptors (such as PLY4, PLY5, BZR1/BES1, MYC2, etc) and have different precursors such as L-arginine, L-tryptophan, phenylalanine, linolenic acid, S-adenosylmethionine, geranylgeranyl diphosphate. This review comprehensively analyses the breakthrough in phytohormones and their signaling in regulating plants' growth and maturation. Their significance in combating the biotic, abiotic, and climate change stresses, improving stress adaptation to identify novel strategies enhancing plant resilience, sustainable agriculture, and ensuring food security.}, }
@article {pmid40193152, year = {2025}, author = {Delnat, CC}, title = {A Systematic Review of Climate Change Content Integration in Nursing Curricula.}, journal = {The Journal of nursing education}, volume = {64}, number = {4}, pages = {227-234}, doi = {10.3928/01484834-20241125-02}, pmid = {40193152}, issn = {1938-2421}, mesh = {*Curriculum ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate/organization &amp; administration ; Nursing Education Research ; *Education, Nursing/organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Health systems must be strengthened to mitigate and adapt to climate change-related health challenges, and nursing program accreditors are beginning to require climate health competencies (American Association of Colleges of Nursing). Since these recommendations are recent, more information is needed for faculty to build competence in content related to climate and health in nursing program curricula.<br><br>METHOD: A literature review was conducted to explore how climate-change environmental and population health implications are being incorporated into nursing education. Literature was reviewed using the Global Consortium on Climate Change and Health Education competency outcomes as a guide to evaluation.<br><br>RESULTS: Educators used three types of strategies: (1) integration of content throughout the existing curriculum; (2) embedding a stand-alone course; and (3) educational activities directed toward climate health education.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The strategy that provided education on the greatest number of competencies was the integration of content throughout the existing nursing curriculum. [J Nurs Educ. 2025;64(4):227-234.].}, }
@article {pmid40191808, year = {2025}, author = {Loria, RN and Pugel, J and Goldberg, MH and Halla, DA and Bascom, R and Scott, JT and Crowley, M and Long, EC}, title = {Email outreach attracts the US policymakers' attention to climate change but common advocacy techniques do not improve engagement.}, journal = {Communications earth &amp; environment}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {76}, pmid = {40191808}, issn = {2662-4435}, support = {P50 HD089922/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R01 DA056627/DA/NIDA NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {One of the most challenging aspects of climate change mitigation today is not identifying solutions but reaching political leaders with climate scientists' existing solutions. Although there is substantial research on climate change communication, research rarely focuses on one of the most impactful groups: policymakers. It is essential to test theoretically sound methods to increase lawmakers' attention to research evidence. In a series of four rapid-cycle randomized controlled email trials (N = 6642-7620 per trial), we test three common and theoretically derived advocacy tactics to increase U.S. policymaker engagement with a climate change fact sheet sent via email (i.e., a norms manipulation, a number focused manipulation, and emotional language manipulation). In all four trials, the control message increased engagement more than messages using advocacy tactics, measured by fact sheet clicks. This demonstrates the importance of testing communication methods within the appropriate populations, especially a population with considerable influence over climate policy.}, }
@article {pmid40191132, year = {2025}, author = {Iizumi, T and Sakai, T and Masaki, Y and Oyoshi, K and Takimoto, T and Shiogama, H and Imada, Y and Makowski, D}, title = {Assessing the capacity of agricultural research and development to increase the stability of global crop yields under climate change.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {pgaf099}, pmid = {40191132}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {Agricultural research and development (R&amp;D) has increased crop yields, but little is known about its ability to increase yield stability in the context of increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Using a grid yield dataset, we show that from 2000 to 2019, the SD of yield anomalies for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean increased in 20% of the global harvested area. Based on random forest models relating yield anomaly to climate, soil, management, and public R&amp;D expenditure, we show that cumulative agricultural R&amp;D expenditure, proportion of growing season exposed to optimal hourly temperatures, and dry and very wet days are key factors explaining crop yield variability. An attribution analysis based on large ensemble climate simulations with and without human influence on the global climate shows that unfavorable agroclimatic conditions due to climate change has increased SD, while higher R&amp;D expenditure has led to more contrasting trends in SD over 2000-2019. Although R&amp;D has continued steadily in most countries, this study indicates that the progress made in R&amp;D since 2000 may have lagged behind the unfavorable effect of climate change on yield variability.}, }
@article {pmid40190799, year = {2025}, author = {Van Tran, D and Suzuki, T and Fukuyama, I and Vera, RJ and Nishikawa, K}, title = {Population Genetics Provides Insights Into the Impact of Future Climate Change on the Genetic Structure and Distribution of Asian Warty Newts (Genus Paramesotriton).}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e71054}, pmid = {40190799}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Assessing population vulnerability to climate change is essential for informing management and conservation strategies, particularly for amphibians. We integrated population genetics and ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the effect of climate change on the distribution and genetic structure of two species of Asian warty newts (Paramesotriton deloustali and P. guangxiensis) in northern Vietnam. We analyzed population genetics using a genome-wide SNP dataset generated with the MIG-seq method. Additionally, we applied ensemble ecological niche modeling (ENM) to predict the potential distribution of warty newts under two climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2050 and 2090. Population genetics revealed three primary groups: West, East + Cao Bang (CB), and Quang Ninh (QN). CB exhibited discordance between mitochondrial DNA and single-nucleotide nuclear DNA polymorphism data. Furthermore, gene flow within populations was restricted, particularly within West and QN. Spatial distribution analyses of genetic clusters conditioned by environmental variables predicted that the East + CB genetic cluster would expand, whereas those of West and QN would decrease. The introgression of genetic structures probably reduces the vulnerability of East + CB to climate change. ENM analysis revealed that these newts are susceptible to climate change, resulting in a reduction in their suitable habitat areas across all scenarios. We also observed a shift in the suitable distribution toward higher elevations. Our results suggest that the mountainous areas of northern Vietnam could serve as potential refugia for these newts as the effects of climate change intensify.}, }
@article {pmid40190795, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, Y and Dai, Y and Li, J and Cong, W and Zhang, Y and Nie, X and Wu, Q and Xue, Y}, title = {Climate Change and Human Pressure: Assessing the Vulnerability of Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia) Habitat Integrated With Prey Distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e71232}, pmid = {40190795}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change is significantly altering the distribution of large carnivores and their primary prey species, with particular emphasis on the changing prey distribution in high-altitude regions. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, known for its rich biodiversity, is highly sensitive to climate change, affecting the habitats of snow leopards (Panthera uncia) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur). Our study identified blue sheep as the primary prey of snow leopards through metagenomic analysis and used bioclimatic data and Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) information to model habitat suitability under three climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). Projections showed that under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, snow leopard habitats will decrease by 13.0% and 23.4%, while blue sheep habitats will decrease by 38.3% and 49.7%, respectively. These habitats are expected to shift to higher altitudes, with snow leopards experiencing a more significant shift. Based on these findings, we recommend adjusting protected area boundaries for S1 (Ideal distribution range), establishing ecological corridors for S2 (stepping stone), and implementing targeted measures to mitigate human-wildlife conflicts in S3 (potential conflict area). To protect these species, international efforts to reduce carbon emissions, cross-administrative cooperation, and community-based conservation strategies are essential.}, }
@article {pmid40190706, year = {2025}, author = {Cai, M and Hu, X and Sun, J and Hu, Y and Liu, G and Wu, Z and Ding, F and Kang, W}, title = {Principle-based adept predictions of global warming from climate mean states.}, journal = {National science review}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {nwae442}, pmid = {40190706}, issn = {2053-714X}, abstract = {Distinguishing anthropogenic warming from natural variability and reducing uncertainty in global-warming projections continue to present challenges. Here, we introduce a novel principle-based framework for predicting global warming from climate mean states that is based solely on carbon-dioxide-increasing scenarios without running climate models and relying on statistical trend analysis. By applying this framework to the climate mean state of 1980-2000, we accurately capture the subsequent global warming (0.403 K predicted versus 0.414 K observed) and polar warming amplification patterns. Our predictions from climate mean states of individual models not only exhibit a high map-correlation skill that is comparable to that of individual Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models for the observed warming, but also capture the temporal pace of their warming under the 1% annual CO2-increasing scenario. This work provides the first principle-based confirmation that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the primary cause of the observed global warming from 1980-2000 to 2000-2020, independently of climate models and statistical analysis.}, }
@article {pmid40190447, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, Y and Collins, AL}, title = {Global warming potential of farming systems across England: possible mitigation and co-benefits for water quality and biodiversity.}, journal = {Agronomy for sustainable development}, volume = {45}, number = {2}, pages = {22}, pmid = {40190447}, issn = {1774-0746}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Agriculture is a key contributor to gaseous emissions causing climate change, the degradation of water quality, and biodiversity loss. The extant climate change crisis is driving a focus on mitigating agricultural gaseous emissions, but wider policy objectives, beyond net zero, mean that evidence on the potential co-benefits or trade-offs associated with on-farm intervention is warranted. For novelty, aggregated data on farm structure and spatial distribution for different farm types were integrated with high-resolution data on the natural environment to generate representative model farms. Accounting for existing mitigation effects, the Catchment Systems Model was then used to quantify global warming potential, emissions to water, and other outcomes for water management catchments across England under both business-as-usual and a maximum technically feasible mitigation potential scenario. Mapped spatial patterns were overlain with the distributions of areas experiencing poor water quality and biodiversity loss to examine potential co-benefits. The median business-as-usual GWP20 and GWP100, excluding embedded emissions, were estimated to be 4606 kg CO2 eq. ha[-1] (inter-quartile range 4240 kg CO2 eq. ha-[1]) and 2334 kg CO2 eq. ha[-1] (inter-quartile range 1462 kg CO2 eq. ha[-1]), respectively. The ratios of business-as-usual GHG emissions to monetized farm production ranged between 0.58 and 8.89 kg CO2 eq. £[-1] for GWP20, compared with 0.53-3.99 kg CO2 eq. £[-1] for GWP100. The maximum mitigation potentials ranged between 17 and 30% for GWP20 and 19-27% for GWP100 with both corresponding medians estimated to be ~24%. Here, we show for the first time that the co-benefits for water quality associated with reductions in phosphorus and sediment loss were both equivalent to around a 34% reduction, relative to business-as-usual, in specific management catchment reporting units where excess water pollutant loads were identified. Several mitigation measures included in the mitigation scenario were also identified as having the potential to deliver co-benefits for terrestrial biodiversity.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-025-01015-4.}, }
@article {pmid40190080, year = {2025}, author = {Singh, GJP}, title = {Regulatory and Scientific Complexities in Application of the Proposed Prior Approval Supplement Pathway for Substitution of the Low Global Warming Potential Propellants in the Marketed Metered Dose Inhalers.}, journal = {Molecular pharmaceutics}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {1735-1739}, doi = {10.1021/acs.molpharmaceut.4c01512}, pmid = {40190080}, issn = {1543-8392}, mesh = {*Metered Dose Inhalers/standards ; *Aerosol Propellants/chemistry/administration &amp; dosage ; Humans ; *Drug Approval/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; United States ; United States Food and Drug Administration ; Administration, Inhalation ; Hydrocarbons, Fluorinated/chemistry ; Excipients/chemistry ; Fluorocarbons ; }, abstract = {Due to the Greenhouse effect of the hydrofluoroalkane gases, transition of the currently marketed pressurized Metered Dose Inhalers containing these propellants to their new versions with Low Global Warming Potential propellants has been initiated. Both the regulatory authorities and MDI manufacturers are actively engaged in making this transition efficiently and cost-effectively. Traditionally, regulatory approval of propellant changes in MDIs has entailed lengthy and very expensive product development in new drug applications. Recently, however, a Prior Approval Supplement pathway that is commonly used to support scaleup and post approval changes in drug products has been proposed for regulatory submissions to support replacement of the approved hydrofluoroalkane with the MDIs using low global warming potential propellants. However, it is recognized that propellant substitutions in MDIs are not simple excipient changes, as they may influence a variety of critical quality attributes relevant to the safety and efficacy of the inhalers. Therefore, even though the proposal for consideration of propellant substitutions as post approval changes is novel and its regulatory acceptance by the FDA would be revolutionary, its application is complicated in view of the applicable regulatory and scientific considerations. This paper provides an analysis of the regulatory and scientific complexities relevant to the proposed pathway.}, }
@article {pmid40189491, year = {2025}, author = {Sun, S and Lundgren, EJ and Zhang, Y and Tang, R and Hua, Y and Kuang, Y}, title = {Animal burrows as critical thermal refuges in the age of climate change.}, journal = {Science China. Life sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40189491}, issn = {1869-1889}, }
@article {pmid40189462, year = {2025}, author = {Fitzpatrick, CM and Muratore, CS and Glick, RD and Raval, MV and Li, L}, title = {Why Pediatric Surgeons Need to Care About Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of pediatric surgery}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {162280}, doi = {10.1016/j.jpedsurg.2025.162280}, pmid = {40189462}, issn = {1531-5037}, }
@article {pmid40188952, year = {2025}, author = {Wolfson, JA and Altema-Johnson, D and Yett, A and Ali, E and Kim, B and Carr, N and Santo, R and Cho, C and Browning, G and Ramsing, R}, title = {Climate change menu labels in a university cafeteria: effects on student's diets, perceptions, and attitudes.}, journal = {Appetite}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {108001}, doi = {10.1016/j.appet.2025.108001}, pmid = {40188952}, issn = {1095-8304}, abstract = {Climate change is an urgent public health threat that requires robust and multi-sector action, including strategies to shift food choices toward more sustainable options. Climate change menu labels in university settings have the potential to shift food choices over the short- and long-term. In this pre- post-intervention study, we implemented traffic-light style climate impact menu labels communicating the greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) of foods in two university dining halls at a private university in Maryland, USA. We compared student dietary intake, perceptions, and university dining procurement pre- and post-intervention. Compared to a baseline period with a matching 4-week menu cycle, we found no significant changes students' overall dietary quality, and few differences in students' frequency of consuming key food groups. One in three students (33%) in the sample (n=186) noticed the climate change labels on the menus, and nearly half of surveyed students (48%) said they would like the labels to continue to be displayed in dining halls. The majority of students reported that the labels did not influence their food choices at the dining hall (56%) or elsewhere (67%). More than 60% of students believed a healthy diet includes meat, and ∼40% believed that meatless meals are not filling. Climate labels are an important strategy for universities to consider to increase student awareness of climate impacts of their food choices, but other strategies, such as shifts in the types of meals offered on the menu, may also be needed to reduce GHGE of university dining programs.}, }
@article {pmid40188755, year = {2025}, author = {Li, L and Tang, Y and Dong, H and Zhao, L and Liu, C}, title = {Planning conservation priority areas for marine mammals accounting for human impact, climate change and multidimensionality of biodiversity.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {381}, number = {}, pages = {125193}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125193}, pmid = {40188755}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Because of the crucial ecological status of marine mammals, identifying priority areas for these species could significantly contribute to achieving the 30 % ocean protection target set by the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. However, comprehensive conservation priorities requires considering multiple biodiversity dimensions and the impacts of climate change and human activities, which are poorly considered. In this study, we first investigated the distribution patterns of species, functional, and phylogenetic diversity of marine mammals and analyzed their relationship with cumulative anthropogenic impacts and climate change. We then developed conservation plans in which conservation targets of each species were allocated according to their distinctiveness indices, and protection costs were set as cumulative anthropogenic impacts and future climate velocity. The results indicate that incorporating extinction probability into the calculation of distinctiveness indices affects species uniqueness rankings, highlighting the need to consider species threat levels in future conservation efforts. Negative correlations were found for marine mammal diversity with cumulative anthropogenic impacts and climate change, implying that these factors may have already influenced the biodiversity distribution. The results suggest that existing MPAs are exposed to high levels of cumulative human impacts and climate velocity, necessitating further assessment of their effectiveness. In contrast, the low-regret MPAs identified in this study face significantly lower cumulative human impacts and future climate velocity, presenting valuable opportunities for marine mammal conservation.}, }
@article {pmid40188724, year = {2025}, author = {Yan, J and Shirai, K and Nishida, K and Zhao, L and Wang, M and Zhang, H and Feng, Y and Chen, X and Zheng, Y and Li, X and Sun, X and Tian, L and Song, H}, title = {Growth disturbances in bivalve shell: Implications for past and future intra-annual scale climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {976}, number = {}, pages = {179297}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179297}, pmid = {40188724}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Growth disturbances in bivalve shells are widely observed in both fossil and modern species, yet the conditions and mechanisms driving their formation remain unclear. Through controlled experiments on Mimachlamys nobilis, we demonstrate that abrupt intra-annual temperature fluctuations (≥5 °C) induce shell growth disturbances by altering the energy budget, diverting resources from shell growth to stress responses. Under ≥5 °C fluctuations (Groups C and D), 67 % of the individuals exhibited shell thinning, reduced growth rates, and formed growth disturbance lines (Groups C and D), whereas <5 °C fluctuations (Groups A and B) caused disturbances in only 12 % of the cases. These bivalve growth disturbances serve as a sensitive bio-indicator of short-term temperature fluctuations, providing a novel tool for reconstructing intra-annual level marine climatic fluctuations in deep time.}, }
@article {pmid40188721, year = {2025}, author = {Secrafi, M and Msadek, J and Chouikhi, F and Bakhshandeh, E and Tarhouni, M and Boughalleb, F and Abdellaoui, R}, title = {Hydrothermal time modeling of germination dynamics under abiotic stress and habitat suitability of Stipagrostis species using the MaxEnt model in response to climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {976}, number = {}, pages = {179347}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179347}, pmid = {40188721}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Currently, overgrazing, land clearing, soil erosion, and the effects of climate change are the main factors of grassland ecosystems degradation. Thus, developing activities for restoring and rehabilitating degraded pastoral habitats is crucial. The most effective and sustainable strategy for carrying out these activities is to use species that are acclimated to dry and desert environments. In this regard, our work examined the effects of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 °C), PEG6000-induced water stress (0, -0.1, -0.2, -0.4, -0.5, -0.6, -0.8, and - 1.0 MPa), and their interaction on the germination of Stipagrostis ciliata, Stipagrostis pungens, and Stipagrostis plumosa. Also, the effect of environmental factors including temperature and precipitation-related variables on the species distribution under current and future climate scenarios were investigated by using the MaxEnt model. Results revealed that germination responses were successfully predicted using the hydrotime and hydrothermal time models (R[2] ≥ 0.83). Decreasing water potential (ψ) significantly reduced maximum germination percentage and delayed median germination rate (GR50) in all species, with S. ciliata showing the highest stress tolerance (ψb(50) = -0.6 MPa and GR50 = 0.048 h[-1] at 25 °C). Optimal germination occurred at temperatures between 25 and 26 °C, with recovery germination percentage peaking under severe stress conditions (-0.8 to -1.0 MPa). Species-specific variations in ψb(50) values and cardinal temperatures highlighted the physiological mechanisms underlying germination responses to environmental stresses. Habitat modeling using MaxEnt revealed distinct environmental factors influencing species distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Projections under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios indicated shifts in suitable habitats, with S. ciliata and S. plumosa showing enhanced high and very high suitable areas, respectively, despite reductions in moderate habitats. However, S. pungens will experience the greatest reduction in very high suitable habitat distribution compared to S. ciliata and S. plumosa. This suggests that S. ciliata may become more widespread and well-distributed, potentially making it more effective for environmental restoration efforts.}, }
@article {pmid40188421, year = {2025}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Woodward, AJ and Trueck, S and Linnenluecke, MK and Bambrick, H and Capon, AG and Lokmic-Tomkins, Z and Peel, J and Bowen, K and Hanigan, IC and Arriagada, NB and Cross, TJ and Friel, S and Green, D and Heenan, M and Jay, O and Kennard, H and Malik, A and McMichael, C and Stevenson, M and Vardoulakis, S and Vyas, A and Romanello, MB and Walawender, M and Zhang, Y}, title = {The 2024 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australia emerging as a hotspot for litigation.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {222}, number = {6}, pages = {272-296}, pmid = {40188421}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Australia ; Humans ; Droughts ; Wildfires ; *Public Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; New Zealand ; }, abstract = {The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. It examines five broad domains: health hazards, exposures and impacts; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the seventh report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. We also examine selected indicators of trends in health and climate change in New Zealand. Our analyses show the exposure to heatwaves is growing in Australia, increasing the risk of heat stress and other health threats such as bushfires and drought. Our analyses also highlight continuing deficiencies in Australia's response to the health and climate change threat. A key component of Australia's capacity to respond to bushfires, its number of firefighting volunteers, is in decline, dropping by 38 442 people (17%) in just seven years. Australia's total energy supply remains dominated by fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas), and although energy from coal decreased from 2021 to 2023, energy from oil increased, and transport energy from petrol grew substantially in 2021-22 (the most recent year for which data are available). Greenhouse gas emissions from Australia's health care sector in 2021 rose to their highest level since 2010. In other areas some progress is being made. The Australian Government completed the first pass of the National Climate Risk Assessment, which included health and social support as one of the eleven priority risks, based in part on the assessed severity of impact. Renewable sources such as wind and solar now provide almost 40% of Australia's electricity, with growth in both large-scale and small-scale (eg, household) renewable generation and battery storage systems. The sale of electric vehicles reached an all-time high in 2023 of 98 436, accounting for 8.47% of all new vehicle sales. Although Australia had a reprieve from major catastrophic climate events in 2023, New Zealand experienced cyclone Gabrielle and unprecedented floods, which contributed to the highest displacement of people and insured economic losses over the period of our analyses (ie, since the year 2010 and 2000 respectively). Nationally, regionally and globally, the next five years are pivotal in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning energy production to renewables. Australia is now making progress in this direction. This progress must continue and accelerate, and the remaining deficiencies in Australia's response to the health and climate change threat must be addressed. There are strong signs that Australians are increasingly engaged and acting on health and climate change, and our new indicator on health and climate change litigation in Australia demonstrates the legal system is active on this issue in this country. Our 2022 and 2023 reports signalled our intentions to introduce indicators on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and climate change, and mental health and climate change in Australia. Although the development of appropriate indicators is challenging, these are key areas and we expect our reporting on them will commence in our next report.}, }
@article {pmid40188419, year = {2025}, author = {Barbour, V}, title = {Accountability frameworks for climate change and health: research is leading the way.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {222}, number = {6}, pages = {271}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.52633}, pmid = {40188419}, issn = {1326-5377}, }
@article {pmid40188017, year = {2025}, author = {Li, A and Zhou, H and Luo, X and Wang, J and Tian, J and Fu, Z and Xie, G and Li, L and Zhu, L and Hua, D}, title = {The influence of climate change on Primula Sect. Crystallophlomis in southwest China.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {438}, pmid = {40188017}, issn = {1471-2229}, support = {2024NSFSC0401//Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province (Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province)/ ; QD2023A33//Mianyang Normal University Doctoral Start-up Fund Project/ ; HX2024305//Mianyang Normal University Science and Technology Project/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; China ; Ecosystem ; *Primula/physiology ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: Climate change significantly affects the distribution of high-altitude plant species, particularly within the Primula Sect. Crystallophlomis found in Southwest China. This clade is valued for its ornamental and medicinal properties. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. crystallophlomis to inform conservation and ecological research.<br><br>METHODS: An optimized Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) was utilized to predict the suitable habitat areas of P. crystallophlomis under 9 scenarios, using 161 distribution records and 22 environmental variables. The model parameters were set to RM = 1.5 and FC = LQH, achieving a high prediction accuracy with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.820.<br><br>RESULTS: The analysis identified key environmental factors influencing the suitable habitat of P. crystallophlomis, including annual precipitation (bio-12), temperature seasonality (bio-4), mean diurnal range (bio-2), and precipitation seasonality (bio-15). Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitats are primarily located in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Hengduan Mountains, and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, exhibiting significant fragmentation. Notable declines in potential habitat area were observed from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Mid-Holocene (MH), with future projections indicating further reductions, particularly under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585 (SSP-585) scenario.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The suitable habitat of P. crystallophlomis, which tends to grow in consistently cold and moist environments, is expected to shrink, with a projected southward shift in its centroid. Global warming is anticipated to profoundly impact the suitable habitats of P. crystallophlomis, highlighting the urgent need for conservation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid40186955, year = {2025}, author = {Sayed, Y and Hassan, M and Salem, HM and Al-Amry, K and Eid, G}, title = {Probiotics/prebiotics effect on chicken gut microbiota and immunity in relation to heat-stress and climate-change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {129}, number = {}, pages = {104097}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2025.104097}, pmid = {40186955}, issn = {0306-4565}, abstract = {Heat stress is a serious hazard that threatens world poultry production. The avian gut microbiome plays a critical role in improving nutrient utilization, competing with pathogens, stimulating an immune response, and reducing inflammatory reactions. Hence, the gut microbiome has a positive impact on the host's health which appears in the shape of improved body weight, feed conversion rate, and increased birds' productivity (meat or eggs). Accordingly, this review shed light on the chicken gut microbiome, its correlation with the immunity of chicken, and how this affects the general health condition of the bird as well as, the role of prebiotics and probiotics in improving the gut health and increasing birds' productivity, especially under climate change and heat stress condition. The review aims to focus on the significance of maintaining healthy chickens in order to increase the production of poultry meat to satisfy human needs. A robust microbiota and a well-functioning immune system synergistically contribute to the optimal health and productivity of chickens.}, }
@article {pmid40186927, year = {2025}, author = {Ladhar, S and Gill, J and Frank, I and Dahri, K}, title = {Student perspectives on the integration of environmental sustainability and climate Change into the doctor of pharmacy program curriculum.}, journal = {Currents in pharmacy teaching &amp; learning}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {102347}, doi = {10.1016/j.cptl.2025.102347}, pmid = {40186927}, issn = {1877-1300}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: There has been an increased focus on evaluating the environmental impact of medications and the pharmacist's role in reducing this impact. The University of British Columbia (UBC) Entry to Practice Doctor of Pharmacy (PharmD) program curriculum in Canada, provides limited exposure to climate change and environmental sustainability in relation to pharmacy practice. The objective of this study was to characterize students' prior exposure and preference for learning about the impact of medications on the environment.<br><br>METHODS: An online survey was developed and disseminated via email and social media to the 865 students enrolled in Program Years 1 to 4 of the UBC PharmD program. The survey consisted of 13 questions covering demographics, prior knowledge level on the topic and learning preferences. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the responses.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 117 students completed the survey (response rate&#xa0;=&#xa0;14&#xa0;%). Approximately one-third (37&#xa0;%) of participants indicated previous educational exposure to climate change and sustainability separate from their PharmD education, and 21&#xa0;% indicated exposure during their PharmD education. The majority of respondents (97&#xa0;%) indicated that they are interested in this topic with 91&#xa0;% planning to advocate for sustainable pharmacy practices in their future careers. Most students rated their knowledge level as basic or moderate for both the contribution of the healthcare systems and pharmacy practice and pharmaceuticals on climate change and the environment. Lastly, 77&#xa0;% of participants felt that integrating education on climate change and sustainability into the PharmD curriculum was necessary.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study reveals that students have a strong interest in learning about the impact of medications on the environment. However, current educational exposure to this topic within the UBC PharmD program is limited, highlighting a gap in the curriculum. Future research should focus on the incorporation of climate change and sustainability into the pharmacy curriculum.}, }
@article {pmid40186819, year = {2025}, author = {Nida, H and Kashif, M and Janjua, AA and Aslam, M and Cheema, KS and Ullah, S}, title = {Impacts of climate change on Pakistan's weather patterns: a comprehensive study of temperature and precipitation trends.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {5}, pages = {509}, pmid = {40186819}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Pakistan ; *Climate Change ; *Weather ; *Rain ; Temperature ; *Environmental Monitoring ; }, abstract = {Pakistan, located in an arid region characterized by low rainfall and high temperatures, faces significant vulnerability to climate change. The country's diverse meteorological conditions pose significant challenges for effective climate modeling. This study focuses on analyzing long-term meteorological time series data (1981-2020) from various regions across Pakistan to examine regional climate variability and detect emerging weather trends. Seventeen climate indices were calculated to assess weather patterns, followed by trend analysis utilizing both parametric and non-parametric methods. The parametric approach employed ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, while the non-parametric methods included the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's Slope (SS) estimator. Over the 40-year period, the analysis revealed significant trends, such as increases in hot days, cold nights, warm nights, and extreme precipitation events. These findings emphasize the distinct and complex regional impacts of climate change in Pakistan. By identifying these trends through robust statistical techniques like OLS, MK, and SS, the study provides critical evidence of climate shifts, emphasizing the urgent need for tailored, region-specific strategies to strengthen resilience against the adverse effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40186676, year = {2025}, author = {Habibi, P and Razmjouei, J and Badzohreh, A and Heydari, A}, title = {Climate change and chronic kidney disease (CKD) among outdoor workers: a systematic review.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-025-02896-6}, pmid = {40186676}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {Global warming was positively related to chronic kidney disease (CKD) among outdoor workers. Based on the present systematic review, we gathered the risk factors (individual, environmental, and occupational) for climate change-induced CKD among outdoor workers up to 2023. There has been a rapid increase of CKD in tropical and subtropical countries with low and middle income. Among the risk factors air temperature, diabetes, hypertension, physically demanding job tasks, age, sex, dehydration, working and living in a hot environment, and body mass index (BMI) were the main contributors to CKD-related. Although the high hot-wet and hot-dry climate conditions related to CKD were high, this trend increased in developing countries. Climate change will adversely impact global kidney health over the century through its effects on temperature and the risk of endemic infections. Outdoor workers may face an elevated risk of CKD, with the male population being more vulnerable. Implementing preventive strategies (cooling techniques, acclimation, work/rest cycles, and appropriate clothing) against heat stress due to global warming is crucial.}, }
@article {pmid40185269, year = {2025}, author = {Bai, X and Zhang, Z and Gu, D}, title = {Driving mechanism of natural vegetation response to climate change in China from 2001 to 2022.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {276}, number = {}, pages = {121529}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.121529}, pmid = {40185269}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Understanding driving mechanism of natural vegetation response to climate change is crucial for maintaining vegetation stability. In this study, driving mechanism of natural vegetation sensitivity to precipitation (SVP) and temperature (SVT) changes in China were analyzed based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Solar-induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), Dead Fuel Index (DFI), and climate, hydrological, and CO2 data. Results showed that NDVI and SIF significantly increased but DFI significantly decreased from 2001 to 2022, with proportion of over 67 % of natural vegetation area. The SVP of NDVI (SVPN) and DFI (SVPD) of natural vegetation decreased while SVP of SIF (SVPS) increased during 2001-2022, with average of -6.8 × 10[-5]/mm, -9.9 × 10[-3]/mm, and 2.3 × 10[-5]/mm, respectively. The SVPN and SVPD decreased from arid to humid regions, SVPS was high in semi-arid and semi-humid regions. The SVP was correlated with precipitation, runoff, CO2 and surface soil moisture (SSM), and their correlation was higher in drier regions. The SVT of NDVI (SVTN) of natural vegetation increased while SVT of SIF (SVTS) and DFI (SVTD) decreased during 2001-2022, with average of 13.3 × 10[-3]/°C, 7 × 10[-3]/°C, and -1.2/°C, respectively. And there was no significant spatial variation of SVT in different climate regions. The SVT was correlated with aridity index (AI), potential evapotranspiration (PET), temperature and SSM. The explanation of climate, hydrological, and CO2 for SVP and SVT was over 64 %, especially for SVTD at 76.2 %. The influencing factors had great explanations for alpine vegetation, desert, needle-leaf forest, and shrubland, and small explanations for broadleaf forest, mixed forest, and wetland. Overall, natural vegetation of China greened and its dependence on climate change decreased, SVP and SVT were driven by hydrology and heat, respectively. These findings will provide scientific basis for vegetation to cope with future extreme events and maintain vegetation stability.}, }
@article {pmid40185036, year = {2025}, author = {Zhu, N and Li, Z and Yu, Y and Liu, Z and Liang, X and Wang, W and Zhao, J}, title = {Fate of microplastics in soil-water systems: View from free radicals driven by global climate change.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {295}, number = {}, pages = {118138}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2025.118138}, pmid = {40185036}, issn = {1090-2414}, abstract = {Microplastics are ubiquitously distributed and persistently present in soil-water systems, posing potential ecological and health risks worldwide. Free radicals are highly reactive in soil-water systems, particularly at soil-water-air interface. The dynamic changes of free radicals sensitive to environmental conditions may greatly impact the fate of microplastics. However, the pathways, reaction kinetics, or transformation products of microplastic degradation by free radicals in soil-water systems remains unclear. Climate change alters the physical and chemical environment of soil-water systems and this transformation can directly affect the degradation of microplastics, or indirectly influence it by altering the generation and species of free radicals. Here, we summarized and analyzed the impact of fluctuations in free radicals (such as superoxide radicals, hydrogen peroxide, peroxyl radicals, and hydroxyl radicals) in soil-water systems on the degradation of microplastics and their derivants. We also discussed how changes in free radicals driven by climate change affect the fate of microplastics. By integrating aspects such as climate change, free radical chemistry, and microplastic pollution, this work delineates the critical issues of microplastic pollution exacerbated by environmental condition changes. In response to the existing challenges and deficiencies in current research, feasible countermeasures are proposed. This work offers valuable insights for future research on predicting and controlling ecotoxicity and health risks caused by microplastics associated with global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40184804, year = {2025}, author = {Oueslati, W and Jlassi, A and Ben Mna, H and Mesnage, V and Rahmouni, R and Added, A and Trabelsi, L and Aleya, L}, title = {Blue carbon stock in Tunisian coastal sediments: First assessment and implications for ecosystem conservation and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {215}, number = {}, pages = {117909}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.117909}, pmid = {40184804}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {This work presents the first comprehensive study on carbon definitive sequestration in coastal marine sediments in Tunisia. It study aimed to provide insights into the potential role of coastal Tunisian sediments in mitigating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and climate change. It compiles carbon data from 32 cores sampled in eight distinct ecosystems along the Tunisian coast, including lagoons (Ghar El Melh, Bizerte and Korba), Lake Ichkeul, seagrass meadows (Posidonia oceanica) in Sidi Rais and Monastir bays along with two gulfs (Tunis and Gabes). The study revealed carbon sequestration rates ranging from 2.1 to 177.6 gC m[-2] yr[-1], with the highest rates found in P. oceanica meadows while both lagoons seemed recalcitrant to sequestration due to enhanced organic matter degradation. Conversely, Lake Ichkeul, constitutes a good trap with carbon sequestration rate up to 49 gC m[-2] yr[-1] and remarkably Tunis and Gabes gulfs exhibit exceptionally high levels exceeding 40 %. Although P. oceanica meadows exhibited the highest sedimentation rates (414 and 115 gC m[-2] yr[-1], respectively), their carbon sequestration was low (40 %). The carbon permanently sequestered in the sediment of the studied environments was around 1243 KtCO2 yr[-1], accounting for approximately 4 % of the total CO2 emissions by Tunisia in 2021. However, considering the short and medium-term sequestration potentials of the 1,33,2815 ha of seagrass meadows in Tunisia, this percentage could attain >100 %.}, }
@article {pmid40183866, year = {2025}, author = {Ukoba, K and Onisuru, OR and Jen, TC and Madyira, DM and Olatunji, KO}, title = {Predictive modeling of climate change impacts using Artificial Intelligence: a review for equitable governance and sustainable outcome.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40183866}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The accelerating pace of climate change poses unprecedented challenges to global ecosystems and human societies. In response, this study reviews the power of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to develop advanced predictive models for assessing the multifaceted impacts of climate change. The study used the PRISMA framework to find, assess, and combine research on using AI in predicting climate change impacts. Integrating AI techniques, such as machine learning algorithms and predictive analytics, into climate modeling provides a robust framework for understanding and projecting the complex dynamics associated with global climate change. These models exhibit a high capacity for data collection, analyzing intricate patterns and integration, including their relationships within the datasets. They enable quick and accurate predictions of future climate scenarios, scenarios testing, historical eventualities, their magnitude, and adaptation. However, challenging issues like data gaps, especially in interconnected systems such as the atmosphere, are associated. Also, AI insight translation into an actionable recommendation recognizable by the policymakers, including ethical usage, is an emerging concern. Therefore, further advances to circumvent these will include the integration of AI with physical models, developing hybrid models, and generating synthetic climatic datasets to enhance data quality and gaps. Also, AI tools are being developed to aid decision-making for policy integration. AI-based predictive modeling is restructuring and bringing reformative change to the understanding of and approach toward climatic change through AI model development. AI guarantees an unfailing plan and a resilient future with sustainable approaches that empower scientists, policymakers, and communities.}, }
@article {pmid40182231, year = {2024}, author = {Mkhatshwa, NP and Dlamini, WM and LaBeaud, AD and Mandalakas, AM and Lanza, K}, title = {HIV in Eswatini: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies.}, journal = {Current tropical medicine reports}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {143-152}, pmid = {40182231}, issn = {2196-3045}, support = {D43 TW011547/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; T42 OH008421/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review assessed the impact of climate change on HIV transmission and HIV care of children and adults in Eswatini, and what adaptation strategies can mitigate these impacts.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: The HIV crisis in Eswatini persists alongside the climate emergency, increasing poor health outcomes in individuals living with HIV. Although there is no clinical evidence of a direct influence of climate change on the biological effect of HIV, changing weather patterns have an effect on the livelihoods and sustenance of children, adults, and caregivers, which may consequently increase the likelihood of HIV transmission and disrupt HIV care.<br><br>SUMMARY: Drought conditions-expected to increase with climate change-coupled with existing food insecurity and poverty are the main pathways linking HIV and climate change in Eswatini. Other climate-driven concerns for HIV treatment and care in Eswatini include heat waves, wildfires, floods, and storms.}, }
@article {pmid40181811, year = {2024}, author = {Galvin, E and Wiese, A and Coakley, N and Heaphy, D and Elfghi, M and O'Brien, C and Osborne, C and Mulcaire, R and Bennett, D}, title = {Competencies and learning outcomes for healthcare professionals in climate change and sustainability: A protocol for a scoping review.}, journal = {HRB open research}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {66}, pmid = {40181811}, issn = {2515-4826}, abstract = {RATIONALE: The planetary crisis is a serious threat to human health. Healthcare professionals need to be trained to adapt to and mitigate against this crisis. Competencies, curricular frameworks and learning outcomes relating to climate change and sustainability (CC&amp;S) have been proposed for healthcare professionals. A synthesis of these competencies, learning outcomes and frameworks is necessary to identify commonalities and differences, understand the process of their development and highlight areas for future development.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The objective of this scoping review is to identify and synthesise the evidence on competencies, curricular frameworks and learning outcomes for healthcare professionals in climate change and sustainability.<br><br>INCLUSION CRITERIA: Sources relating to healthcare professionals and healthcare students, describing competencies, curricular frameworks and learning outcomes in CC&amp;S, will be included. Sources in all healthcare contexts will be included. Sources in the English language, published from 2014 to June 2024 will be considered for inclusion.<br><br>METHODS: The review will be conducted in line with the Joanna Briggs Institute guidance for scoping reviews. The following electronic databases will be searched: PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, SocINDEX, Academic Search Complete, Business Source Complete, British Education Index, Australian Education Index, Scopus and ERIC. A search of the grey literature will also be conducted. Two reviewers will independently screen the titles and abstracts and full texts for eligibility. Data extraction will be conducted independently by two reviewers. A narrative summary and tables will be presented. Key stakeholders will be consulted throughout the review.<br><br>DISCUSSION: This review will summarise the range of competencies, curricular frameworks and learning outcomes proposed internationally for various healthcare professionals. The findings will be used to inform core competencies for all healthcare professions in CC&amp;S, in addition to highlighting gaps in the literature and areas for future development. The findings will be disseminated at conferences and in a peer-reviewed publication.<br><br>REGISTRATION: This protocol was registered on 31 [st] July 2024 on the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/vnx2g).}, }
@article {pmid40181243, year = {2025}, author = {Xu, W and Luo, D and Peterson, K and Zhao, Y and Yu, Y and Ye, Z and Sun, J and Yan, K and Wang, T}, title = {Advancements in ecological niche models for forest adaptation to climate change: a comprehensive review.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/brv.70023}, pmid = {40181243}, issn = {1469-185X}, support = {2020P4-UBC//The Asia-Pacific Network for Sustainable Forest Management and Rehabilitation/ ; 202108320093//China Scholarship Council/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses significant challenges to the health and functions of forest ecosystems. Ecological niche models have emerged as crucial tools for understanding the impact of climate change on forests at the population, species, and ecosystem levels. These models also play a pivotal role in developing adaptive forest conservation and management strategies. Recent advancements in niche model development have led to enhanced prediction accuracy and broadened applications of niche models, driven using high-quality climate data, improved model algorithms, and the application of landscape genomic information. In this review, we start by elucidating the concept and rationale behind niche models in the context of forestry adaptation to climate change. We then provide an overview of the advancements in occurrence-based, trait-based, and genomics-based models, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of species responses to climate change. In addition, we summarize findings from 338 studies to highlight the progress made in niche models for forest tree species, including data sources, model algorithms, future climate scenarios used and diverse applications. To assist researchers and practitioners, we provide an exemplar data set and accompanying source code as a tutorial, demonstrating the integration of population genetics into niche models. This paper aims to provide a concise yet comprehensive overview of the continuous advancements and refinements of niche models, serving as a valuable resource for effectively addressing the challenges posed by a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid40180993, year = {2025}, author = {Alqahtani, MSM and Shahin, G and Abdelalim, ITI and Khalaf, SMH}, title = {Evaluation of ecological consequences on the global distribution of Staphylococcus aureus Rosenbach 1884 due to climate change, using Maxent modeling.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {11457}, pmid = {40180993}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Staphylococcus aureus/isolation &amp; purification ; Humans ; *Staphylococcal Infections/epidemiology/microbiology ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Staphylococcus aureus is a primary cause of many infections in humans, and its rising prevalence and drug resistance are serious public health concerns. While there is evidence that climate change can influence the distribution and abundance of microbial species, the precise effects on S. aureus are not well characterized. The purpose of this study is to predict the potential influence of climate change on the global distribution of Staphylococcus aureus in 2050 and 2070 using GIS and Maxent modeling. S. aureus occurrence data was acquired from global databases and coupled with bioclimatic variables to simulate current and future habitat suitability under several climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). The Maxent modeling approach was used to forecast geographical patterns of S. aureus distribution, providing insights into locations that may see increased prevalence of this essential species as a result of climate change. The study's findings can be used to inform public health measures and focused surveillance activities aimed at reducing the burden of Staphylococcus aureus infection.}, }
@article {pmid40180892, year = {2025}, author = {Lee, H and Noh, KM and Oh, JH and Park, SW and Shin, Y and Kug, JS}, title = {Emergence of an oceanic CO2 uptake hole under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {3199}, pmid = {40180892}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {NRF2022R1A3B1077622//National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF)/ ; }, abstract = {The ocean is a crucial sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, yet its future response remains uncertain. Here, using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) under different CO2 emission rates, we find a pronounced weakening of ocean CO2 uptake in the Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA), distinct from the global response. Initially, the SPNA is an effective CO2 sink, but due to the contraction of deep convection, the uptake decreases and the oceanic pCO2 exceeds the global average. Recognizing the importance of regional ocean circulation in CO2 uptake, we identify a nonlinear relationship between environmental conditions and uptake response, revealing consistent thresholds for the emergence of uptake weakening. These findings are also reproduced in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, confirming their robustness. Overall, the distinct uptake response reflects the key role of regional dynamics in regulating the CO2 budget and geochemical environment, which is important for regional CO2 mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40180365, year = {2025}, author = {Bower, M and Scott, LM and Smout, S and Donohoe-Bales, A and Stapinski, LA and Bryant, G and Jegasothy, E and Bailie, R and Haddad, S and Brambilla, A and Howard, A and McClellan, J and Swain, J and McGrath, L and Teesson, M and Barrett, EL and Daniel, L}, title = {Locating the built environment within existing empirical models of climate change and mental health: protocol for a global systematic scoping review.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e093222}, pmid = {40180365}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Scoping Review as Topic ; *Mental Health ; *Built Environment ; Research Design ; *Residence Characteristics ; Housing ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Where a person lives, the characteristics of their housing and neighbourhood environment influence their exposure to climate-related hazards and vulnerability to associated mental health impacts. This suggests that the built environment may be a promising focus for integrated policy responses to climate change and public mental health challenges. However, few empirical studies have focused on the role of the built environment as an important mediator of climate-attributable mental health burden. The proposed scoping review seeks to identify and synthesise existing conceptual models and frameworks linking climate change to mental health via built environment pathways. We aim to provide a preliminary overview of the housing and neighbourhood pathways through which climate change may impact mental health, which will inform future empirical work in this emerging area of research.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A systematic scoping review of the global peer-reviewed and grey literature will be conducted in accordance with Arksey and O'Malley's methodological framework and Joanna Briggs Institute recommendations. Included articles must present a conceptual model or framework incorporating relevant built environment pathways through which climate change may impact mental health and well-being. Relevant models and frameworks will be identified through systematic searches (for English-language reports) of Medline, PsycINFO, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science and grey literature databases. Two reviewers will independently screen the article titles, abstracts and full texts, with conflicts resolved by a third reviewer. Data extraction will occur using a predefined template. The presentation of findings will conform to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews, including a narrative synthesis of the role of housing and neighbourhood factors in the relationship between climate change and mental health, as identified from the existing literature. The review will lay essential foundations for future empirical research and place-based policy responses to the mental health consequences of a changing climate.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The scoping review will be a secondary analysis of published data, for which ethics approval is not required. The results will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed publication and targeted distribution to stakeholders involved in climate change, built environment and health research and policymaking.<br><br>STUDY REGISTRATION: Open Science Framework: doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/XR74C.}, }
@article {pmid40180263, year = {2025}, author = {Zheng, J and Hu, J and Guo, R and Lu, D and Dai, X and Wang, R and Jin, H and Sun, Z and Li, J and Chen, F and Chen, J and Wang, P}, title = {Early Warning on the Potential Harmful Algal Bloom Species in Beibu Gulf of South China Sea under the background of Climate Change and Human Activity.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {121516}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.121516}, pmid = {40180263}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Human activity and global climate change increasingly affect marine environments, leading to increases in harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by phytoplankton. These blooms pose significant threats to public health, tourism, fisheries, and ecosystems. As an important fishing ground and tourist destination, the Beibu Gulf faces growing environmental pressure. This study sought to assess the phytoplankton community structure and status of HABs, with a focus on potential HAB species. Using environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding, summer and winter surveys at both coastal and offshore waters revealed 66 potential HAB species, 23 of which were newly recorded in the Beibu Gulf. The potential HAB species exhibited greater richness and relative abundance in summer than in winter. Offshore areas showed greater diversity, whereas coastal areas showed greater relative abundance. Temperature emerged as the most influential factor shaping phytoplankton composition, and pH was found to play an important role in coastal areas. Nutrients such as silicate and ammonium are critical for the distribution of potential HAB species. Among the potential HAB species, Cyclotella cryptica predominated in coastal areas during winter, whereas Chaetoceros tenuissimus predominated in summer. Some species that caused severe HAB events in other oceanic regions were first detected in this study, including Margalefidinium polykrikoides, Karlodinium veneficum, and Prorocentrum concavum. This study revealed the diversity and complexity of the phytoplankton community in the Beibu Gulf, emphasizing the critical importance of monitoring and early warning of potential HAB species, particularly those driven by human activities and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40179717, year = {2025}, author = {Patrick, R and Noy, S and McKew, M and Lee, S and Kanda, M and Edwards, SJ and Ali, A and Bowen, K}, title = {Rapid review on healthy ageing interventions that incorporate action on climate change and sustainability in cities and communities.}, journal = {Health &amp; place}, volume = {93}, number = {}, pages = {103435}, doi = {10.1016/j.healthplace.2025.103435}, pmid = {40179717}, issn = {1873-2054}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Intersecting global trends of population ageing and climate change have far-reaching implications for health and sustainability in cities and community contexts. Older adults are highly impacted by climate change, and yet reports of the implementation of the World Health Organizations' Age-Friendly Cities and Communities (AFCC) approach rarely examine the impacts of climate change on older adults. There is limited research on climate change interventions that target older populations. This rapid scoping review characterizes existing evidence in this area, including climate and health-related interventions involving older populations around the world.<br><br>METHODS: The PCC framework (Population, Context, Concept) guided the implementation of this rapid scoping review. Peer reviewed articles were sourced from Scopus (Elsevier), Greenfile, Academic Search Complete (EBSCO), Global Health (OVID) and Google Scholar. Grey literature was sourced from Google Scholar, Google and relevant international websites. Inclusion criteria were grey and academic publications in English, after the year 2000 and described an intervention. Screening was undertaken on Covidence software and critically appraised using MMAT and AACODS tools. The AFCC framework was used to guide analysis and interpretation.<br><br>RESULTS: Twenty-five articles were included. The review found a paucity of literature describing age-friendly cities and community interventions that considered health-related impacts of climate change on older adults, issues for rural communities and those in developing nations. Climate change was rarely mentioned other than for context in the peer-reviewed literature, and the grey literature was similarly sparse. Peer-reviewed literature was top-down, focusing on disasters and older adults' vulnerability, whilst the grey literature privileged older adult agency and potential contribution to addressing climate change. Successful interventions were programs that positioned older adults as active, empowered participants.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change justice and resilience should be incorporated explicitly into the AFCC framework. Greater information exchange between Global North and Global South and inclusion of diverse perspectives (i.e., Indigenous knowledge, people with disabilities and/or experiencing homelessness) will enhance policy efforts. Similarly, recognition of the broader impacts of climate change on the fundamental pre-requisites for health across the lifespan such as food, water and energy security are required. Older adults should be seen as a valuable resource integral to the design and implementation of innovative interventions with climate resilience, healthy ageing focus.}, }
@article {pmid40179646, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, Y and Pi, X and Yadav, V and Hussain, A and Liu, Q and Wang, Y and Guo, Y and Zhang, Y and Fei, X}, title = {Leaching model of an expanding coastal dumpsite considering climate change.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {200}, number = {}, pages = {114772}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2025.114772}, pmid = {40179646}, issn = {1879-2456}, abstract = {Coastal dumpsites, which are common in low- and middle-income countries, pose significant environmental threats due to the lack of containment systems and their vulnerability to erosion, flooding, and climate change. Neither field measurements nor mechanistic models are abundant in the literature to understand the relevant processes. We develop a simple yet generic leachate generation model, which integrates a 3-dimensional (3D) waste dumping module, a water balance module, and a pollutant transport module. The model is validated using the available information of the Thilafushi dumpsite in the Maldives, which is a typical example of Small Island Developing States (SIDS). The measured groundwater total dissolved solids (TDS) in nearby monitoring wells of the dumpsite match nicely with the modeling results using the dumpsite model and another pollutant transport in aquifer model. Furthermore, the model predicts that the cumulative releases of dissolved organic carbon, copper, and chromium will increase by 100-182% between 2022 and 2100 under the baseline scenario. Three climate change factors are investigated, including precipitation variation, temperature rise, and sea level rise, under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Temperature rise shows the most significant contribution to the increase in pollutant leaching due to increased leaching potential. The combined effect of temperature rise and precipitation variation will increase the cumulative release of Cu by up to 23% by 2100 under SSP585 compared to the baseline scenario. The established model is readily applicable to other coastal dumpsites in SIDS and coastal countries, which call for timely assessments and potential mitigations.}, }
@article {pmid40179623, year = {2025}, author = {Foong, YC and Chan, OKL and Hannaford, A and Rudaks, LI and Ranta, A and Bridge, F and Shaw, C}, title = {Climate change and neurology: A survey of neurologists in Australia and New Zealand.}, journal = {Journal of the neurological sciences}, volume = {472}, number = {}, pages = {123481}, doi = {10.1016/j.jns.2025.123481}, pmid = {40179623}, issn = {1878-5883}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the perceptions of neurologists in Australia and New Zealand regarding climate change and its impact on neurological practice.<br><br>METHODS: Members of the Australian and New Zealand Association of Neurologists were surveyed gathering demographic information and views on climate change and its impact on clinical practice. A composite score was generated based on five key climate change-related questions. Linear regression was used to examine associations between demographic factors and the composite score.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 190 neurologists among 994 ANZAN members (19.1&#xa0;%) completed the survey. Of these 94.7&#xa0;% agreed that climate change is happening, and 81.1&#xa0;% believed it impacts their patients' health. However, only 32.1&#xa0;% felt comfortable initiating conversations about climate change. The majority of respondents perceived a moderate impact of climate change on patients' mental health, ability to exercise and multiple sclerosis symptomatology, and a small to moderate impact on migraines, emerging neuroinfectious disease and ability to access transport. Female neurologists had a higher composite score, whilst age did not independently predict the composite score.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Neurologists are concerned about climate change and its impact on their patients, but the majority are uncomfortable raising this in routine clinical care. Our findings support the need for more education for neurologists on strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change for patients with neurological disease.}, }
@article {pmid40179576, year = {2025}, author = {Fan, X and Wang, Z}, title = {Expanding the horizon of interaction modeling in complex systems comment on "Topological change of soil microbiota networks for forest resilience under global warming" by Huiying Gong et al.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {53}, number = {}, pages = {279-280}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2025.03.016}, pmid = {40179576}, issn = {1873-1457}, }
@article {pmid40179556, year = {2025}, author = {Echeverría-Progulakis, S and Pérez-Méndez, N and Viñas, M and Carreras-Sempere, M and Guivernau, M and Jornet, L and Catala-Forner, M and Martínez-Eixarch, M}, title = {Climate change mitigation through irrigation strategies during rice growing season is off-set in fallow season.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {380}, number = {}, pages = {125060}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125060}, pmid = {40179556}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Non-continuous flooding irrigation practices, such as alternate wetting and drying (AWD) and mid-season drainage (MSD), have been implemented in rice agroecosystems to reduce water use and mitigate climate change. Draining fields reduces methane (CH4) emissions, as soil aeration decreases the abundance and activity of soil methanogens. Mitigation effects during the growing season have been widely studied. However, there is a knowledge gap regarding potential effects these growing season practices might have on subsequent fallow season emissions. This is relevant when assessing overall annual CH4 emissions, particularly in systems in which fallow seasons account for a significant part of these. A field experiment was implemented in the Ebro Delta region (Catalonia, Spain) with the objective of identifying potential effects of growing season AWD and MSD on CH4 emitted during the following flooded fallow season, in comparison to continuously flooded fields. Both emissions and the structure of soil microbial communities were analyzed for rice field plots under the assessed irrigation strategies during the growing season and later for a continuously flooded mesocosm across the fallow season. Both practices achieved an average 86% decrease in CH4 fluxes when compared to continuous flooding during the growing season. AWD resulted in the highest fallow season emissions, leading to increases in overall annual cumulative CH4 emissions (+8%), global warming potential (+30%) and yield-scaled global warming potential (+70%) compared to continuous flooding. Growing season AWD decreased the relative abundance of both methanogens and methanotrophs in the fallow season. Reduced methanotroph communities might lead to lower CH4 consumption, resulting in higher fallow season emissions and offsetting the mitigation effect achieved during the growing season. Under the studied conditions, MSD represented a more effective mitigation strategy. These results highlight the importance of considering both rice growing and fallow season when assessing climate change mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40177682, year = {2025}, author = {Koo, KA and Park, SU}, title = {A Dark Future of Endangered Mountain Species, Parnassius bremeri, Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e71178}, pmid = {40177682}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate and land-use changes are key factors in the habitat loss and population declines of climate change-sensitive endangered species. We assessed the climate change effects on the distribution of Parnassius bremeri, a critically endangered wildlife species in the Republic of Korea, in association with food availability (Sedum kamtschaticum and Sedum aizoon), land-use change, and dispersal limitation. We first predicted the current and future distributions of P. bremeri, S. kamtschaticum, and S. aizoon using the presence/absence data and current (2000) and future climate data (2050, 2100) with BioMod2, an ensemble platform for species distribution model projections. Then, the dispersal capacity of P. bremeri and land-use change were coupled with SDMs using MigClim. We used future climate and land-use changes predicted according to the SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0) and the dispersal model estimated from previous studies. The current distributional areas of P. bremeri were predicted to be about 10,956 km[2] without land-cover coupling and 8.861 km[2] with coupling, showing land-cover decreased by about 19% of the suitable habitat. The future predictions under climate change only showed the distribution reduced by 56% and 50% in 2050 and 2100 under SSP1-2.6, respectively, 55% and 48% under SSP2-4.5, and 44% and 14% under SSP3-7.0. Applying land-use change and dispersal capacity further decreased the future distribution of P. bremeri but trivially (about 0.42% on average). The strict conservation policies and measures for P. bremeri's habitats explain the trivial additional decrease, delaying its habitat loss. However, our results suggest that such efforts cannot halt the climate change-driven habitat loss trend of P. bremeri. Strong climate mitigation efforts and promoting the species' adaptive capacity are the only ways to reverse the tragic decline of climate-sensitive species.}, }
@article {pmid40177234, year = {2025}, author = {Orusa, T and Viani, A and d'Alessio, SG and Orusa, R and Caminade, C}, title = {Editorial: One Health approaches and modeling in parasitology in the climate change framework and possible supporting tools adopting GIS and remote sensing.}, journal = {Frontiers in parasitology}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {1560799}, pmid = {40177234}, issn = {2813-2424}, }
@article {pmid40177021, year = {2025}, author = {Guillamón, JG and Yuste, JE and López-Alcolea, J and Dicenta, F and Sánchez-Pérez, R}, title = {Unraveling metabolic shifts in peach under agrochemical treatments during flower bud endodormancy in the context of global warming.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1502436}, pmid = {40177021}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: In Mediterranean areas like Spain, global warming has endangered stone fruit production by reducing chill accumulation, leading to significant agronomical and economical losses. To mitigate this issue, agrochemicals have been applied for decades to promote endodormancy release and initiate flowering. However, many of these chemicals have been associated with strong phytotoxicity, resulting in their recent ban. As a result, identifying novel pathways to modulate endodormancy release is critical and essential for developing effective, non-toxic agrobiochemicals.<br><br>METHODS: In this study, we investigated the effect of two different agrochemicals mixes: 1% Broston[&#xae;] + 5% NitroActive[&#xae;] and 3% Erger[&#xae;] + 5% Activ Erger[&#xae;], sprayed on peach trees during endodormancy over two years, followed by non-target metabolomic analyses on flower buds to identify metabolic changes in treated versus control trees.<br><br>RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Significant variations were observed in metabolites from the abscisic acid and phenylpropanoid pathways. Notably, six types of phospholipids were identified, with most increasing exclusively in treated samples during endodormancy release. These results were in concomitance with the increased expression of 4-coumarate-CoA ligase 1, 9-cis-epoxycarotenoid dioxygenase, and xanthoxin dehydrogenase genes. In a subsequent validation experiment performed in the third year, branches treated with phospholipids and cinnamic, caffeic, and abscisic acids advanced endodormancy release by one to two weeks, which represents the first evidence of endodormancy release modulation by the use of these metabolites. Moreover, this study contributes to our understanding of the biochemical mechanisms involved in endodormancy release and highlights the potential of phenylpropanoids, phospholipids, and related compounds as targets for developing sustainable agrochemicals, addressing challenges posed by climate change to Prunus spp. cultivation.}, }
@article {pmid40177020, year = {2025}, author = {Singh, P and Sharma, A and Gupta, SK and Salgotra, RK and Gupta, V and Sharma, M}, title = {Morphology and pomological characterization of bael [Aegle marmelos (L.) Correa] genotypes for climate change mitigation under north-western Himalayas.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1496769}, pmid = {40177020}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {This study investigated the genetic diversity of 80 wild bael genotypes (Aegle marmelos) compared to commercial cultivars NB-5 and NB-9, focusing on 16 pomological traits. With the rising temperature impacting perennial fruit crop production and the urgent need for heat- and drought-resistant varieties, bael emerges as a viable option for rainfed areas due to its xerophytic characteristics and ability to withstand high temperatures. Among the collected, wild bael genotype germplasm, JMU-Bael (Sel-27) demonstrated superior traits, including maximum fruit length (12.05 cm), width (11.72 cm), weight (917.65 g), pulp weight (746.81 g), and pulp percentage (81.38%). Correlation matrices revealed significant associations among pomological traits, particularly positive correlations with fruit weight. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated substantial genetic diversity, with the first two components explaining 63.98% of the cumulative variation. Cluster analysis grouped genotypes into two main clusters, providing insights into their diversity and potential breeding applications. This comprehensive analysis offers valuable insights into the genetic variability and adaptability of bael genotypes under changing climatic conditions in the plains of north-western Himalayan regions.}, }
@article {pmid40177015, year = {2025}, author = {Chen, S and Jiang, Z and Song, J and Xie, T and Xue, Y and Yang, Q}, title = {Prediction of potential habitat of Verbena officinalis in China under climate change based on optimized MaxEnt model.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1563070}, pmid = {40177015}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Verbena officinalis is an important medicinal plant widely used in traditional Chinese medicine for the treatment of rheumatism, insomnia, and liver and gallbladder diseases. Its resources primarily rely on wild populations, which are insufficient to meet the increasing market demand. Furthermore, climate change exacerbates the uncertainty of its distribution range. This study employs an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of V. officinalis under current and future climate scenarios in China. Based on 445 effective occurrence records and 90 environmental variables (covering climatic, soil, and topographic factors), the study selected key variables influencing the distribution through correlation analysis and variable contribution rates, and optimized model parameters to improve prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.934). Results showed that, under current climate conditions, the total suitable habitat area of V. officinalis is 2.06 × 10[6] km[2], accounting for 21.39% of China's land area, mainly distributed in central, eastern, and southern China. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio_6, contribution rate 72.8%) was identified as the key factor influencing distribution, while November precipitation (prec_11) and annual temperature range (bio_7) also played important roles. Under future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), the total suitable habitat area shows an overall increasing trend, reaching a maximum in the 2070s under the high-emission scenario (an increase of 3.6 × 10[5] km[2] compared to the current distribution). Expansion was primarily observed in northern high-latitude regions. The geometric centroid of suitable areas demonstrated a significant northward shift, reflecting the adaptive expansion potential of V. officinalis in response to warming climates. This study highlights the significant impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of V. officinalis and provides scientific evidence for its conservation, cultivation planning, and sustainable development in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40176258, year = {2025}, author = {Lennon, JT and Rappuoli, R and Bloom, DE and Brooke, C and Burckhardt, RM and Dangour, AD and Egamberdieva, D and Gronvall, GK and Lawley, TD and Morhard, R and Mukhopadhyay, A and Peixoto, RS and Silver, PA and Sperandio, V and Stein, LY and Nguyen, NK}, title = {Microbial solutions for climate change require global partnership.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e0077825}, doi = {10.1128/mbio.00778-25}, pmid = {40176258}, issn = {2150-7511}, }
@article {pmid40170834, year = {2025}, author = {Kunwar, RM and Khadka, D and Thapa-Magar, K and Adhikari, B and Kutal, DH and Ghimire, R and Kafle, KR and Baral, S and Thapa, GJ and Bhandari, A}, title = {Effects of Climate Change Scenarios on Population and Distribution Pattern of Tree-Ferns in Nepal.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e71179}, pmid = {40170834}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {By studying the population structure and spatial characteristics, the relationship between tree-ferns and the environment can be reflected, which has high practical significance. In this study, we employed an ensemble distribution model to evaluate the relative contribution of various environmental variables and predict suitable habitats for tree-fern across past, present, and future periods. Fieldwork was carried out between May-June 2019 and September 2022 in 11 districts of Nepal for population sampling and collecting the geocoordinates. Additional geocoordinates were collected from secondary sources such as previous literature, herbarium records, and online resources. We reported the occurrence of tree-ferns from 28 districts within the altitudinal range of 300-2500 m. Longitudinally, the species is distributed only in central and eastern Nepal, with maximum density in central Nepal's Kaski and Lamjung districts. The central mid-hills of Koshi and Gandaki provinces, particularly with the moist habitats and maximum rainfall, are suitable for the distribution of tree-ferns. The projected distribution is influenced mainly by the mean temperature of the coldest quarter-Bio11 (34.9%), precipitation in dry months-Bio14 (34.5%), and mean annual temperature-Bio1 (33.9%). Climate extreme variables (maximum temperature in warmest months-Bio5, minimum temperature in coldest months-Bio6, precipitation in wettest months-Bio13, precipitation in wettest quarter-Bio16) contract the future distribution of species. The result portrays an expansion of suitable habitat for tree-ferns while minor contractions are predicted in four districts of Bagmati province. As the Gandaki province receives the highest rainfall and the Koshi province has rich soil moisture, and precipitation plays a significant role in distribution, humid riverine places of Koshi and Gandaki support tree-fern populations. Tree-ferns could be an indicator species of the moist and humid climate. Given the extensive distribution in Nepal, India, and China, sustainable conservation of tree-ferns through a species conservation action plan holds broader implications.}, }
@article {pmid40168832, year = {2025}, author = {Deniz, &#xd6; and Aragona, F and Pezzino, G and Cancellieri, E and Bozaci, S and Tümer, K&#xc7; and Fazio, F}, title = {Modeling climate change effects on some biochemical parameters in horse.}, journal = {Research in veterinary science}, volume = {189}, number = {}, pages = {105630}, doi = {10.1016/j.rvsc.2025.105630}, pmid = {40168832}, issn = {1532-2661}, abstract = {Changes in the global climate pose a severe threat to human and animal welfare and productivity. Total proteins (TP), globulins (GLOB), albumins (ALB), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), creatine kinase (CK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), γ-glutamyl transferase (GGT), and creatinine (CREA) were evaluated during a three-year monitoring period (2021-23) on 16 Thoroughbred retired mares from the regional Golkoy Breeding Farm in Kastamonu- Turkey. The following thermal and hygrometric parameters were gathered: ambient temperature (AT), relative humidity (RH) and ventilation (VT), and the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) was then calculated. Blood samples were collected on the first of each month from January 2021 to December 2023 and the obtained serum was used for the analysis, variations in environmental parameters were correlated to changes in biochemical profile. Two-way for repeated measure ANOVA showed a significant effect of month for AT (<0.0001), RH (<0.0001), and THI (<0.0001), and on TP (p < 0.001), GLOB (p < 0.001), ALB (p < 0.0001), ALP (p < 0.01), CK (p < 0.01), LDH (p < 0.001), AST (p < 0.0001), BUN (p < 0.0001), GGT (p < 0.0001), and CREA (p < 0.0001). ALP, CK, LDH, AST, and BUN values increased during the hottest periods, while GGT showed decreasing values during the summer. CREA showed positive correlation with AT, and LDH and CREA exhibited negative correlation with RH. These results may be useful for the monitoring of horses' physiological conditions as a result of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40168737, year = {2025}, author = {Cherkashina, TY and Svetlakov, AA and Pellinen, VA and Cherkashin, EA}, title = {Relationships between heavy metal migration in soils and landslide dynamics under conditions of modern climate change: A case study of Lake Baikal, Olkhon Island.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {975}, number = {}, pages = {179285}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179285}, pmid = {40168737}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The problem of studying landslide processes has attracted worldwide attention due to both the increase in human activities. New data for environmental monitoring of the Lake Baikal coast were obtained. The main goal aims to establish relationships between modern climate changes and the landslide process dynamics, as expressed in the assessment of Hg, Pb, Cd contamination levels, the identification of their possible sources and interelemental relationships, as well as the evaluation of some natural factors. Some improvements to previously developed analytical and physical-mechanical techniques have been made, which have enabled to improve some statistical characteristics for the analytical methods, as well as to achieve uniform moisture distribution throughout the tested sample to the specified values. The coastal zone was classified as moderately to heavily contaminated by Hg (2.97) and Pb (2.08) using the Cf method. The EF and Igeo methods indicated that a significant amount of Hg and Pb was probably from anthropogenic sources. The PCA indicated a strong inverse relationship between Hg and Cd (-0.833) in the landslide zone (L3 site) and a perfect positive relationship in the coastal zone (0.992) that suggests different sources and pathways. A change in soil temperature to positive values (from 0.6 to 1.1 °C) leads to an increase in the depth of thawing, which results in a lowering of the permafrost roof. This proves that permafrost rocks influence landslide activation, which in turn leads to migration of heavy metals in the landslide. These conclusions are fully consistent with the main goal of the study and the proposed hypotheses. These findings can help the authorities of the National Parks and other individuals in charge of making decisions regulate the anthropogenic load on the ecosystem of Olkhon Island and generally the Baikal region.}, }
@article {pmid40170681, year = {2019}, author = {Belyazid, S and Phelan, J and Nihlgård, B and Sverdrup, H and Driscoll, C and Fernandez, I and Aherne, J and Teeling-Adams, LM and Bailey, S and Arsenault, M and Cleavitt, N and Engstrom, B and Dennis, R and Sperduto, D and Werier, D and Clark, C}, title = {Assessing the Effects of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Soil Properties and Plant Diversity in Northeastern U.S. Hardwood Forests: Model Setup and Evaluation.}, journal = {Water, air, and soil pollution}, volume = {230}, number = {}, pages = {1-33}, pmid = {40170681}, issn = {0049-6979}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {The integrated forest ecosystem model ForSAFE-Veg was used to simulate soil processes and understory vegetation composition at three-sugar maple, beech, yellow birch-hardwood forest sites in the Northeastern United States (one at Hubbard Brook, NH, and two at Bear Brook, ME). Input data were pooled from a variety of sources and proved coherent and consistent. While the biogeochemical component ForSAFE was used with limited calibration, the ground vegetation composition module Veg was calibrated to field relevés. Evaluating different simulated ecosystem indicators (soil solution chemistry, tree biomass, ground vegetation composition) showed that the model performed comparably well regardless of the site's soil condition, climate, and amounts of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, with the exception of failing to capture tree biomass decline at Hubbard Brook. The model performed better when compared with annual observation than monthly data. The results support the assumption that the biogeochemical model ForSAFE can be used with limited calibration and provide reasonable confidence, while the vegetation community composition module Veg requires calibration if the individual plant species are of interest. The study welcomes recent advances in empirically explaining the responses of hardwood forests to nutrient imbalances and points to the need for more research.}, }
@article {pmid40167816, year = {2025}, author = {Chauhan, J and Purohit, VK and Patni, B and Charles, B and Prasad, P}, title = {Impact of climate change on the distribution range and niche dynamics of Himalayan Aconites: a highly important medicinal plant species of the higher Himalayan range.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {4}, pages = {496}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-025-13848-3}, pmid = {40167816}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Aconitum ; *Ecosystem ; *Plants, Medicinal ; India ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Altitude ; }, abstract = {Alpine vegetation found in mountainous areas is reportedly sensitive to the expected heat caused by climate change. Aconitum species, which is an indicator species for monitoring the signal of climate change, also falls under this range. Aconitum heterophyllum and Aconitum balfourii thrive among diverse plant communities and serve as key species marking the onset of the alpine range. The current study uses the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) program to estimate the geographic distribution of Aconitum taxa for the present and the future (RCPs 2.6-8.5 encompassing 2050). The final model that was obtained had an area under the ROC curve AUC of 0.95, demonstrating the model's resilience. Species distribution modeling (SDM) toolbox was used to evaluate changes in the habitat appropriateness, area expansion, and contraction based on the MaxEnt model. Future forecasts indicate that the Eastern Himalayas would be a more favorable environment for both Aconitum species when compared to the Western Himalayas. According to our best knowledge, this package was used for the first time in the study to evaluate the dynamics of the climatic niches of two critically endangered Aconitum species for the Indian Himalayan ranges. The climatic niche of this alpine species is expected to shift in the future due to alterations in its habitat regions. The Aconitum niche is in danger under scenarios of future climate change, according to the AUC and Jackknife values. The findings of the current study contribute substantially to understanding how climate change affects the Himalayas and have broad implications for the development of scientifically sound adaptation and mitigation measures, as the major factors influencing its distribution are altitude, snow cover, chilling hours for both seeds and tubers, temperature, and rainfall patterns.}, }
@article {pmid40165851, year = {2025}, author = {Hakeem, E and Jawad, S and Ali, AH and Kallel, M and Neamah, HA}, title = {How mathematical models might predict desertification from global warming and dust pollutants.}, journal = {MethodsX}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {103259}, pmid = {40165851}, issn = {2215-0161}, abstract = {Global warming and dust pollutants endanger humans and the ecosystem. One very efficient way to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and dust is to use plant biomass in a greenbelt. This study provides a mathematical model for how dust pollutants and climate change affect plant biomass dynamics. The proposed model is thoroughly described. The model's analysis is centered on identifying prospective equilibrium positions. The study indicates that it is feasible to establish two steady states. The stability analysis illustrates that both steady states are consistently stable under the specified conditions. The local bifurcations at each steady state are derived; specifically, transcritical bifurcation may occur if a plant's growth rate is selected as a bifurcation point. The theoretical study is validated through numerical simulations. Desertification may arise if the intrinsic growth rate of plant biomass, the dust pollutants-induced plant biomass depletion coefficient, and the coefficient of natural depletion of dust contaminants are not effectively managed, according to the numerical simulation result.•This research describes how to make a nonlinear model and sets its parameters to simulate the risk of desertification caused by global warming and dust pollutants.•The proposed model's behaviour is described using stability analysis theory as a methodology.•Numerical simulations confirm the performance of the proposed methodology.}, }
@article {pmid40165613, year = {2025}, author = {Fialas, PC and Santini, L and Russo, D and Amorim, F and Rebelo, H and Novella-Fernandez, R and Marques, F and Domer, A and Vella, A and Martinoli, A and Figurek, A and Tsoar, A and Sandor, A and Ibanez, C and Korine, C and Kerbiriou, C and Voigt, C and Mifsud, C and Jére, C and Ridha, D and Preatoni, D and Hamidović, D and Tidenberg, EM and Çoraman, E and Mathews, F and Lison, F and Joanna, F and Petersons, G and Loumassine, H and Garin, I and Csősz, I and Liira, J and Juste, J and Julien, JF and van der Kooij, J and Darija, J and Aihartza, J and Eldegard, K and Phelps, K and Olival, KJ and Marina, K and Ancillotto, L and Grzegorz, L and Barti, L and Salazar, LC and Bosso, L and Rodrigues, L and Hamel, L and Uhrin, M and Mas, M and Cerekovic, N and Toshkova, N and Roche, N and Kalda, O and Aizpurua, O and Georgiakakis, P and Kanuch, P and Presetnik, P and Bilgin, R and McKay, RA and Dina, R and Goran, R and Ireneusz, R and Sørås, R and Robert, S and Aulagnier, S and Kramer-Schadt, S and Gazaryan, S and Bücs, SL and Yorulmaz, T and Stjernberg, T and Liukko, UM and Nistreanu, V and Vintulis, V and Radchuk, V and Puig-Montserrat, X and Bas, Y and Zagmajster, M and Zegarek, M and Vida, Z and Razgour, O}, title = {Changes in community composition and functional diversity of European bats under climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e70025}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.70025}, pmid = {40165613}, issn = {1523-1739}, support = {//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; //NE/M018660/1, NE/S007504/1/ ; //COST ACTION CA18107 'Climate change and bats: from science to conservation - ClimBats' (https://climbats.eu/)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to drive geographical range shifts that will result in changes in species diversity and functional composition and have potential repercussions for ecosystem functioning. However, the effect of these changes on species composition and functional diversity (FD) remains unclear, especially for mammals, specifically bats. We used species distribution models and a comprehensive ecological and morphometrical trait database to estimate how projected future climate and land-use changes could influence the distribution, composition, and FD of the European bat community. Future bat assemblages were predicted to undergo substantial shifts in geographic range and trait structure. Range suitability decreased substantially in southern Europe and increased in northern latitudes. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to drive shifts in bat FD, which has implications for ecosystem function and resilience at a continental scale. It is important to incorporate FD in conservation strategies. These efforts should target species with key functional traits predicted to be lost and areas expected to experience losses in FD. Conservation strategies should include habitat and roost protection, enhancing landscape connectivity, and international monitoring to preserve bat populations and their ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid40165521, year = {2025}, author = {McCarron, GP}, title = {Composting: A tool to combat climate change.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {453-454}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X251319678}, pmid = {40165521}, issn = {1096-3669}, }
@article {pmid40164588, year = {2025}, author = {Bhadauria, US and Purohit, B and Giraudeau, N and Atri, M and Priya, H}, title = {Impact of climate change on dentistry and oral health: a scoping review.}, journal = {BDJ open}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {32}, pmid = {40164588}, issn = {2056-807X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Direct effects of climate change on different domains of general health have been well documented with evidence-based literature; however, the implications for oral health and dentistry have been addressed in different forms of research papers and lack a comprehensive evaluation.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We aimed to conduct a scoping review of the existing literature to elucidate the connections between the impact of climate change on oral health and dentistry, exploring how environmental shifts can influence dental diseases and practices and offering insights for future dental care using a systematic search strategy.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic search was carried out using keywords in PubMed, Embase, and Scopus databases. Boolean operators were also used to combine the searches and elaborate the search strategy. We did not apply any restriction of time frame or language to the articles. A total of 10 papers were included in the final review. The findings from different papers have reported direct/indirect associations of climate change with oral diseases and conditions such as dental caries, dental erosion, and oral cancer; developmental defects of enamel; early childhood caries; periodontal disease; and dental trauma, skeletal, and dental fluorosis.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The findings synthesize a nascent yet significant body of research exploring how environmental changes driven by climate change impact the dental profession and oral health outcomes. Continued research and policy attention are imperative to address the complex and evolving challenges posed by climate change to oral health.}, }
@article {pmid40159568, year = {2025}, author = {Mammides, C and Campos-Arceiz, A}, title = {Media coverage of biodiversity falls short compared to climate change and popular culture.}, journal = {npj biodiversity}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {11}, pmid = {40159568}, issn = {2731-4243}, abstract = {We compared global media coverage and internet search interest in COP15—which resulted in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework—with COP27, a climate-focused conference, and the popular American singer Taylor Swift. Despite the critical environmental and societal implications of biodiversity loss, COP15 received significantly less attention, even in highly biodiverse countries. Addressing this attention shortfall will be crucial for building the awareness and advocacy needed to achieve global biodiversity goals.}, }
@article {pmid40159167, year = {2025}, author = {Tong, SL and Wang, Y and Lu, YL and Xiao, C and Liu, QY and Zhao, Q and Huang, CR and Xu, JY and Kang, N and Zhu, T and Qin, D and Xu, Y and Su, B and Shi, XM}, title = {The Impacts of Climate Change on the Environment and Human Health in China: A Call for more Ambitious Action.}, journal = {Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES}, volume = {38}, number = {2}, pages = {127-143}, doi = {10.3967/bes2025.016}, pmid = {40159167}, issn = {2214-0190}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Environment ; }, abstract = {As global greenhouse gases continue rising, the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before. China is the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate change. The evidence about the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health may encourage China to take more decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts. This article aimed to review the evidence of environmental damages and health risks posed by climate change and to provide a new science-based perspective for the delivery of sustainable development goals. Over recent decades, China has experienced a strong warming pattern with a growing frequency of extreme weather events, and the impacts of climate change on China's environment and human health have been consistently observed, with increasing O 3 air pollution, decreases in water resources and availability, land degradation, and increased risks for both communicable and non-communicable diseases. Therefore, China's climate policy should target the key factors driving climate change and scale up strategic measures to curb carbon emissions and adapt to inevitable increasing climate impacts. It provides new insights for not only China but also other countries, particularly developing and emerging economies, to ensure climate and environmental sustainability whilst pursuing economic growth.}, }
@article {pmid40157983, year = {2025}, author = {Frigero, MLP and Boaro, CSF and Galetto, L and Tunes, P and Guimarães, E}, title = {Extreme events induced by climate change alter nectar offer to pollinators in cross pollination-dependent crops.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {10852}, pmid = {40157983}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {Proc. 130401/2021-8//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; Proc. 312799/2021-7//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; #2021/10428-4//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; }, mesh = {*Pollination/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Plant Nectar ; Animals ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Bees/physiology ; Droughts ; Rain ; Flowers/physiology ; Fruit/physiology ; }, abstract = {Both severe reductions and increases in rainfall can stress plants and modify floral traits involved in plant-pollinator interactions, such as nectar production. Animal pollination is responsible for most plant species' reproduction including several crops that rely especially on bees for fruit and seed production. Thus, extreme climate events can cause disruptions in pollination mutualism and lead to a decrease in the production of many crops worldwide. This study investigated the effects of changes in rainfall on nectar availability to pollinators at flower-, plant- and agricultural-scale, using an outcrossing bee-pollinated model crop. We experimentally simulated four scenarios: Control, Heavy rainfall, Rainfall reduction and Drought. All treatments but Rainfall reduction affected nectar traits at flower-scale. At plant- and agricultural-scale, Heavy rainfall increased nectar caloric offer (+ 79% and + 74%, respectively), while Rainfall reduction and Drought decreased it (- 37% and - 34%; - 98% and - 95%, respectively). Thus, drought treatments resulted in less resources available to pollinators The predicted rainfall shifts mediated by climate change may negatively affect cross-pollinated crops worldwide, as changes in nectar traits are prone to affect pollinator foraging behaviour and energy intake rate, decreasing pollination and fruit production. In summary, food security for humans may be closely linked to food security for pollinators.}, }
@article {pmid40157052, year = {2025}, author = {Li, J and Chen, F and Zhou, Y and Zhang, H and Jiang, R and Zhu, W and Zhu, K}, title = {Impact of climate change to the potential habitat distribution of three cephalopod species from offshore of Zhejiang.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {208}, number = {}, pages = {107108}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107108}, pmid = {40157052}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Cephalopods are predominantly short-lived marine organisms, and their habitats are more susceptible to the effects of climate change. Modelling and predicting the distribution of potential habitats of cephalopods and their changing habitat spatial patterns under climate change scenarios can provide an essential scientific foundation for cephalopod habitat conservation and fisheries ecosystem management in the context of climate change. The trawl survey data collected along Zhejiang offshore in the spring and autumn of 2017-2023, in conjunction with marine environmental data including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) and chlorophyll-a concentration (CHLA), collected by temperature-salt-depth instrument, were employed to simulate and predict the potential habitat distribution of Uroteuthis duvauceli, Abralia multihamata, and Sepiella maindroni in the four RCP climate scenarios in 2100 by random forest as a species distribution model. The results demonstrated that the Random Forest predictions were accurate and reliable, with an AUC exceeding 0.8 for each group and a standard deviation below 0.05. The main environmental factors affecting the habitat distribution of three cephalopod species are SST and SSS, with an average contribution rate of 0.28 in spring and 0.33 in autumn. The average contribution rate of SSS in spring is 0.32, and in autumn it is 0.29. The response curves demonstrated that the three cephalopod species exhibited varying degrees of response to changes in SST and SSS. During the spring period, the optimal habitat for cephalopods was characterised by SST ranging from 18 °C to 20 °C, and SSS exceeding 28 ‰. In contrast, in autumn, S. maindroni exhibited a preference for warmer water compared to U. duvauceli and A. multihamata. The potential habitat suitability zones of cephalopods under high gas emission scenarios were found to mainly extend to the southern and northern coast of Zhejiang. Among them, the area of the high adapted zone of S. maindroni increased by 352 % in the RCP4.5 scenario, the area of the high adapted zone of U. duvauceli increased by 69 % in the RCP4.5 scenario, and the area of the high adapted zone of A. multihamata increased by 69 % in the RCP8.5 scenario. The centroid changes of the three species of cephalopods were not found to be significant in the high suitability zones of the three cephalopod species in different climatic scenarios. The present study proposes that climate change will result in alterations to the potential habitat of cephalopods offshore Zhejiang, which is a significant consideration for the future conservation and management of cephalopod fisheries.}, }
@article {pmid40155560, year = {2025}, author = {Vergunst, F and Orri, M and Forte, A and Geoffroy, MC}, title = {Links between climate change and suicidal behavior risks.}, journal = {Nature medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40155560}, issn = {1546-170X}, }
@article {pmid40153091, year = {2025}, author = {Dettleff, P and Fuentes, M and Gonzalez, P and Aedo, J and Zuloaga, R and Estrada, JM and Molina, A and Valdes, JA}, title = {Generating transcriptomic resources in the teleost fish black cusk-eel (Genypterus maculatus) to evaluate thermal stress in the liver under a climate change scenario.}, journal = {Fish physiology and biochemistry}, volume = {51}, number = {2}, pages = {75}, pmid = {40153091}, issn = {1573-5168}, mesh = {Animals ; *Liver/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Transcriptome ; Heat-Shock Response/physiology ; }, abstract = {The black cusk-eel (Genypterus maculatus) is a native fish that is relevant for traditional Chilean fisheries and has aquaculture potential. However, the genomic information and the biological knowledge related to the effect of thermal stress response are limited. This study generated the first de novo transcriptome assembly of the liver of G. maculatus and investigated the hepatic response to thermal stress in the G. maculatus. The de novo assembly resulted in 26,620 annotated transcripts, with an N50 of 2297, and a GC% of 49.76%. BUSCO analysis showed 97.1% and 75.7% complete orthologous (Metazoa and Actinopterygi, respectively). Functional annotation showed a total of 55,556 GO terms, with 26,128 annotations on biological process, 15,225 annotations on molecular functions, and 14,213 annotations on cellular component. The RNA-seq analysis revealed 94 differentially expressed transcripts in response to thermal stress, with 64 downregulated and 30 upregulated transcripts. The enrichment analysis showed biological processes related to double-strand break repair via homologous recombination, reciprocal meiotic recombination, and DNA repair. A significant increase in cortisol levels with no significant difference activity of hepatic enzymes (ALT, AST, AP) due to thermal stress was observed. Also, an increase in DNA damage (AP sites formation) and lipid peroxidation (HNE protein adducts) in the liver due to thermal stress was observed. The differentially expressed transcripts were validated using qPCR, confirming the RNA-seq results. The findings provide valuable genomic information for G. maculatus and highlight the physiological and molecular responses to thermal stress in the species under the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40151765, year = {2025}, author = {Davies, M and Dearman, C and Green, R and Haines, A and Heaviside, C and Karakas, F and Kumar Kuppili, S and Michie, S and Milner, J and Moore, G and Osrin, D and Pastorino, S and Petrou, G and Pluchinotta, I and Simpson, C and Symonds, P and Turcu, C and Whitmee, S and Zhou, K and Zimmermann, N}, title = {The PAICE project: Integrating health and health equity into UK climate change policy.}, journal = {Wellcome open research}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {14}, pmid = {40151765}, issn = {2398-502X}, abstract = {This paper announces a new initiative - the research project Policy and Implementation for Climate &amp; Health Equity (PAICE), which aims to investigate the complex systemic connections between climate change action, health and health equity, for translation of evidence into policy and practice in the UK. Using transdisciplinary approaches, PAICE will: (1) co-develop a programme theory and linked monitoring and evaluation plan, (2) work with the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) and the Greater London Authority (GLA) using system dynamics to analyse national and local policy opportunities, (3) build an integrated model of the effects of these policies on population health, health equity and greenhouse gas emissions, (4) apply the findings to the CCC monitoring framework and GLA policy development, and (5) use the programme theory to help evaluate achievement of PAICE processes and objectives. If successful, PAICE will have helped to establish a systems capability to (i) monitor whether Government plans are on track to deliver their climate targets and associated health impacts and (ii) understand how relevant policy and implementation approaches could be enhanced.}, }
@article {pmid40150425, year = {2025}, author = {Abedin, I and Singha, H and Singh, S and Mukherjee, T and Kim, HW and Kundu, S}, title = {Riverine Realities: Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Habitat Dynamics of the Critically Endangered Gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) in the Indian Landscape.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {40150425}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {Autonomous Creative Academic Research Fund 2024-2025 (202416560001)//Pukyong National University, Busan, South Korea/ ; }, abstract = {The endemic and critically endangered gharial, Gavialis gangeticus, experienced a severe population decline in its range. However, conservation efforts, notably through the implementation of "Project Crocodile" in India, have led to a significant recovery of its population. The present study employs an ensemble Species Distribution Model (SDM) to delineate suitable habitats for G. gangeticus under current and future climatic scenarios to understand the impact of climate change. The model estimates that 46.85% of the area of occupancy is suitable under the present scenario, with this suitable area projected to increase by 145.16% in future climatic conditions. States such as Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Assam are projected to experience an increase in habitat suitability, whereas Odisha and Rajasthan are anticipated to face declines. The study recommends conducting ground-truthing ecological assessments using advanced technologies and genetic analyses to validate the viability of newly identified habitats in the Lower Ganges, Mahanadi, and Brahmaputra River systems. These areas should be prioritized within the Protected Area network for potential translocation sites allocation. Collaborative efforts between the IUCN-SSC Crocodile Specialist Group and stakeholders are vital for prioritizing conservation and implementing site-specific interventions to protect the highly threatened gharial population in the wild.}, }
@article {pmid40150387, year = {2025}, author = {Su, S and Liu, J and Chen, B and Wang, W and Xiao, J and Li, Y and Du, J and Kang, J and Hu, W and Zhang, J}, title = {Distribution Shifts of Acanthaster solaris Under Climate Change and the Impact on Coral Reef Habitats.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {40150387}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {2022YFC3106301//the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 2022YFF0802204//the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 2024YFF1306802//the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 2024J02023//the Fujian Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster solaris) outbreaks pose a significant threat to coral reef ecosystems, with climate change potentially exacerbating their distribution and impact. However, there remains only a small number of predictive studies on how climate change drives changes in the distribution patterns of A. solaris, and relevant assessments of the impact of these changes on coral reef areas are lacking. To address this issue, this study investigated potential changes in the distribution of A. solaris under climate change and its impact on Acropora coral habitats. Using a novel two-step framework, we integrated both abiotic and biological (Acropora distribution) predictors into species distribution modeling to project future shifts in A. solaris habitats. We created the first reliable set of current and future global distribution maps for A. solaris using a comprehensive dataset and machine learning approach. The results showed significant distribution shifts under three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), with expanded ranges under all scenarios, and the greatest expansion occurring near 10° S. Asymmetry in the latitudinal shifts in habitat boundaries suggests that the Southern Hemisphere may face a more severe expansion of A. solaris. Regions previously unsuitable for A. solaris, such as parts of New Zealand, might experience new invasions. Additionally, our findings highlight the potential increase in predatory pressure on coral reefs under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, particularly in the Western Coral Triangle and Northeast Australian Shelf, where an overlap between A. solaris and Acropora habitats is significant. This study provides critical insights into the ecological dynamics of A. solaris in the context of climate change, and the results have important implications for coral reef management. These findings highlight the need for targeted conservation efforts and the development of mitigation strategies to protect coral reefs from the growing threat posed by A. solaris.}, }
@article {pmid40148365, year = {2025}, author = {Amasawa, E and Kimita, K and Yoshida, T and Hirao, M}, title = {Exploring different product-service combinations for sustainable clothing rental service based on consumer preferences and climate change impacts.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {10555}, pmid = {40148365}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Access-based consumption of clothing has garnered attention because of its sustainability potential; however, the profile of a product-service combination that benefits both consumers and the environment has been inconclusive. To characterize these services, this study explored consumer preferences and climate change impact of diverse garment type and service combinations for a clothing rental service. We performed a web-based survey in Japan to analyze consumer preferences and intended behavior for 15 garment types and ten service types in clothing rentals. The survey results were used to characterize the desired clothing rental service using a cluster analysis and to calculate life cycle greenhouse gas emissions when the garment was purchased and rented. The results showed a specific combination of consumer segments, product characteristics, and service types that construct a sustainable clothing rental service; formal dress, dress shirt, and maternity wear were the garment types that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 21% ~ 75% depending on consumer behavior and service implementation. We also demonstrate that implementing services often augments greenhouse gas emissions. This study conveys that renting garments for occasional wear are ideal for both consumers and the environment, and rental service providers need to effectively manage product's lifetime extension.}, }
@article {pmid40147821, year = {2025}, author = {Wild, K and Rasanathan, K and Singh, S and Woodward, A}, title = {Balancing short-term and long-term climate-health equity strategies: a framework for supporting faster, fairer joint action on climate change and health equity.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {9}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {}, pmid = {40147821}, issn = {2059-7908}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; Global Health ; Health Policy ; }, abstract = {In this conceptual paper, we propose an integrated framework to support and accelerate joint action on climate change and health equity. We introduce a 'healthy climate, healthy people' framework, designed to support the complex task of synchronising these two significant justice challenges. The framework includes four domains for joint action: (1) Health in all climate mitigation policies; (2) Mitigation with health equity 'co-benefits'; (3) Pro-poor climate adaptation and (4) Greening health equity. We discuss practical implications for policy-makers, including the importance of attending to the health equity dimensions of both climate change and climate action; the value of increasing the use of rapid health equity assessment tools and harm-reducing (redistributive and compensatory) policy measures; the importance of community knowledge and the critical role of 'fair effort sharing' and tackling the emissions of the wealthy.}, }
@article {pmid40147411, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, L and Li, Y and Biswas, A and Zhao, Y and Niu, B and Siddique, KHM}, title = {Assessing climate change and human impacts on runoff and hydrological droughts in the Yellow River Basin using a machine learning-enhanced hydrological modeling approach.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {380}, number = {}, pages = {125091}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125091}, pmid = {40147411}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Analyzing the impacts of climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) on hydrological events is important for water resource management. This study quantifies the impacts of CC and HA on runoff and hydrological drought characteristics (HDC) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) of China. Trends and abrupt change points in runoff at 16 hydrological stations were detected. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Random Forest (RF), and five bias-correction models, including SWAT_RF_bias3 which integrated SWAT outputs with RF using maximal precipitation and temperature inputs, were evaluated for their efficacy in monthly runoff simulation. The "simulated-observed" method was employed to assess the contributions of CC and HA to runoff and HDC variations. Results indicated a general decrease in runoff across the stations during 1961-2016. SWAT_RF_bias3 emerged as the superior model, highlighting the importance of high precipitation in the headwater region and near the main channel of the midstream for accurate runoff simulation. HA was found to contribute significantly more (68-95 %) to runoff reductions than CC. Additionally, CC predominantly influenced the frequency decrease in severe and extreme hydrological droughts, while HA was the main driver behind the increased magnitude and duration of extreme droughts. These findings underscore the complex interplay between CC and HA in water resource management and the effectiveness of bias-correction models in enhancing hydrological simulations in the YRB.}, }
@article {pmid40147239, year = {2025}, author = {Merkenschlager, C and Bangelesa, F and Paeth, H and Hertig, E}, title = {Evolution of the recent habitat suitability area of Aedes albopictus in the extended Mediterranean area due to land-use and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {974}, number = {}, pages = {179202}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179202}, pmid = {40147239}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is one of the world's most invasive species and is responsible for the transmission of several vector-borne diseases, including chikungunya, dengue, and Zika. Aedes albopictus has been established in southern Europe since the 1990s and has been spreading to other regions in recent years. The present study examines changes in the habitat suitability of Aedes albopictus over the period 2000-2020 using a multi-model ensemble (MME) of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models. An initial set of 38 climatic and 14 land-use predictors was considered for model setup. The model was built using Aedes albopictus distribution data for 2020. We included 19 bioclimatic variables, absolute humidity, and 18 extreme climate variables which are tailored to species specific thresholds based on expert knowledge. By means of statistical methods, predictor selection was performed. To assign changes to climate or land-use, we ran all habitat suitability models on varying climate with constant and varying land-use. Differences between both approaches indicate causes of change. Land-use changes are an important factor until 2015, contributing at least as much as climate change to changes in the habitat suitability area of Aedes albopictus (HSA). In the following years, changes in the HSA are mainly shaped by climate change. In 2020, the MME shows an average 4.5 % increase in HSA compared to 2000, with decreasing habitat suitability in the south and increasing suitability in the north. Land use change accounts for 16-51 % of HSA change, but only 3.3 % of land use change is spatially consistent across the MME. In contrast, changes in the HSA due to climate change has a spatial consistency of 54.2 % across the MME. The overall increase in HSA between 2000 and 2020 also increases the risk of vector-borne disease infections, but land-use changes can counteract some of the climate-induced changes.}, }
@article {pmid40146339, year = {2025}, author = {Burbank, AJ}, title = {Climate Change and the Future of Allergies and Asthma.}, journal = {Current allergy and asthma reports}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {20}, pmid = {40146339}, issn = {1534-6315}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Asthma/epidemiology/immunology/etiology ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/immunology ; Allergens/immunology ; COVID-19/immunology/epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2/immunology ; Pollen/immunology ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Prevalence ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF THIS REVIEW: Climate change affects global temperature, meteorological variables, plant aerobiology, air pollution exposure and a host of other factors that individually have been implicated in the inception and/or exacerbation of allergic disease like asthma and allergic rhinitis. It is unknown how climate change will impact allergic disease prevalence and morbidity in the future.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Pollen seasons are lengthening with variable effects on pollen peak concentrations and allergenicity. Air pollution exposure is linked with enhance susceptibility to allergic inflammation induced by pollen and with enhanced susceptibility to infection with a morbidity/mortality from respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. The available literature largely supports the association between climate change and three of the most salient factors for allergic respiratory disease prevalence and morbidity: changes in allergen exposure, pollution exposure, and viral respiratory infection. More research is needed to understand the complex interactions between these factors and individual-level variables that influence disease susceptibility.}, }
@article {pmid40145641, year = {2025}, author = {Crozier, LG and Gomes, DGE and Huff, DD}, title = {Climate Change and Marine Food Webs: Navigating Structural Uncertainty Using Qualitative Network Analysis With Insights for Salmon Survival.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {e70143}, pmid = {40145641}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//National Marine Fisheries Service/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; *Salmon/physiology ; Uncertainty ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Effectively modeling the impact of climate change on any population requires careful consideration of diverse pressures. Potential changes in interactions with other species must be accounted for. As communities reassemble and shifts in abundance and distribution cascade throughout ecosystems, cumulative impacts on species of conservation concern need to be explicitly examined. A structured qualitative analysis of alternative responses to climate change across the food web can play a valuable role in the design and interpretation of quantitative models. A particular advantage of qualitative network analysis is the ease with which a wide range of scenarios representing structural and quantitative uncertainties can be explored. We tested 36 plausible representations of connections among salmon and key functional groups within the marine food web using qualitative network models. The scenarios differed in how species pairs were connected (positive, negative, or no interaction) and which species responded directly to climate change. Our analysis showed that certain configurations produced consistently negative outcomes for salmon, regardless of the specific values for most of the links. Salmon outcomes shifted from 30% to 84% negative when consumption rates by multiple competitor and predator groups increased following a press perturbation from climate. This scenario aligns with some recent observations during a marine heatwave. Feedbacks between salmon and mammalian predators were particularly important, as were indirect effects connecting spring- and fall-run salmon. We also identified which links most strongly influenced salmon outcomes in other scenarios. Our results emphasize the importance of structural uncertainty in food webs and demonstrate a tool for exploring it, paving the way for more targeted and effective research planning.}, }
@article {pmid40140999, year = {2025}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Gbaguidi, GJ and Diarrassouba, W and Martens, P}, title = {Money for health: handling the costs of climate change to African health systems.}, journal = {Journal of health, population, and nutrition}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {86}, pmid = {40140999}, issn = {2072-1315}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Africa ; *Delivery of Health Care/economics ; }, abstract = {The manifold impacts of climate change are also seen in the field of health in most countries. It is particularly so in Africa, whose health systems are amongst the most fragile in the world. This Commentary showcases the degree of vulnerability of the health systems of African countries to climate change, and describes some measures aimed at increasing their resilience to climate shocks. African health systems face significant challenges due to climate change, necessitating a comprehensive approach to enhance resilience.}, }
@article {pmid40140123, year = {2025}, author = {Hadinejad, M and Naghipour, AA and Ebrahimi, A and Naimi, B}, title = {Modeling the effect of climate change on the distribution of plant communities in Zayandeh-Rud basin, Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {4}, pages = {479}, pmid = {40140123}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Iran ; *Climate Change ; *Plants ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the major threats facing various regions in the world, including the Zayandeh-Rud basin in Iran. Although numerous studies have been carried out to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of plant species, one important issue that has been largely neglected is the examination of the impacts of climate change on plant communities. Therefore, in this study, we modeled the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of the existing plant communities in the study area, including Semi Steppe-Shrub, Semi Steppe-Semi Shrub, Semi Steppe-Perennial Herbaceous, Steppe-Semi Shrub, Alpine Vegetation, Semi Desert-Salty Plants, and Semi Desert-Shrub. Using the presence points of plant communities and environmental variables, we performed modeling of the current (1970-2000) and future (2070) distribution of the plant communities in the study area. The results of the MaxEnt modeling under two General Circulation Models (MRI-ESM2-0 and HadGEM3-GC31-LL) with SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios showed that the suitable habitats of many of the studied plant communities will face a significant decrease in the next 50 years. The most significant reduction in suitable habitat is projected for the Semi Steppe-Perennial Herbaceous community (18-29.4%) and the Semi Desert-Shrub community (19-29%) within the Zayandeh-Rud basin, highlighting substantial habitat contraction under future climate scenarios. These changes can have significant implications for ecosystem functions and the livelihoods of local communities. The findings of this study emphasize the necessity of designing and implementing targeted conservation and management programs for the plant communities in this important region in response to the growing threat of climate change. Therefore, our findings can guide managers in prioritizing plant communities and adopting proactive measures to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40140118, year = {2025}, author = {Bordoloi, P and Dutta, N}, title = {The impact of climate change on agriculture in Assam: A statistical analysis of rising temperature and changing precipitation patterns.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {4}, pages = {477}, pmid = {40140118}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; India ; *Agriculture ; *Rain ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; *Temperature ; Oryza/growth &amp; development ; Environmental Monitoring ; Tea ; Mustard Plant/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {This study examines how climate change, particularly rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, affects agricultural productivity in Assam, India. Focusing on rice, tea and mustard-three of the state's most important crops-this research analyses data from 2000 to 2022 using multiple linear regression (MLR) to evaluate the relationship between climatic factors and crop yields. The results show that for every 1 °C increase in temperature, rice yields decline by approximately 0.112 tons/ha (p = 0.002, R[2] = 0.62), while tea and mustard yields decrease by 0.087 tons/ha (p = 0.005, R[2] = 0.54) and 0.095 tons/ha (p = 0.003, R[2] = 0.48), respectively. Rainfall positively influences yields up to optimal thresholds-280 mm for rice, 260 mm for tea and 210 mm for mustard-beyond which excess rainfall leads to reduced productivity, notably in rice due to waterlogging. These findings underscore the high vulnerability of Assam's rain-fed agriculture to climatic variability and stress the urgent need for adaptive measures. Policy recommendations include developing and disseminating heat- and drought-resistant crop varieties, expanding irrigation infrastructure and adopting precision farming technologies and implementing crop insurance schemes to buffer farmers against climatic risks. By integrating climatic, agronomic and socio-economic factors, this study not only fills gaps in the existing literature but also offers actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Assam and other climate-sensitive regions.}, }
@article {pmid40138424, year = {2025}, author = {Al Aswad, JA and Penn, JL and Monarrez, PM and Bazzi, M and Deutsch, C and Payne, JL}, title = {Physiology and climate change explain unusually high similarity across marine communities after end-Permian mass extinction.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {11}, number = {13}, pages = {eadr4199}, pmid = {40138424}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Fossils ; *Ecosystem ; Aquatic Organisms/physiology ; Biodiversity ; Invertebrates/physiology ; }, abstract = {Fossil assemblages exhibit a global depletion in taxonomic distinctiveness in the aftermath of the end-Permian mass extinction (~252 million years ago), but little is known about why. Here, we examine whether biotic homogenization can be explained by tropical survivors tracking an expansion of their preferred habitat, measured in terms of the ratio of environmental oxygen supply to metabolic demand. We compare spatial similarity in community composition among marine invertebrate fossils represented by bivalve and gastropod fossils with predictions from an ecophysiological model of habitat that diagnoses areas in the ocean that can sustain the aerobic requirements of marine invertebrates. Modeled biogeographic responses to climate change yield an increase in global similarity of community composition among surviving ecophysiotypes, consistent with patterns in the fossil record and arguing for a physiological control on earliest Triassic biogeography.}, }
@article {pmid40138417, year = {2025}, author = {Geng, Y and Liu, Y and Li, P and Sun, J and Jiang, Y and Pan, Z and Li, YZ and Zhang, Z}, title = {Anthropogenic activity and climate change exacerbate the spread of pathogenic bacteria in the environment.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {11}, number = {13}, pages = {eads4355}, pmid = {40138417}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Bacteria ; Anthropogenic Effects ; Human Activities ; Bacterial Infections/microbiology/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is profoundly affecting human health. Human pathogenic bacteria (HPB) infections mediated by the environment are considered a substantial cause of global health losses. However, the biogeography of HPB and their response to climate change remain largely unknown. Here, we constructed and analyzed a global atlas of potential HPB using 1,066,584 samples worldwide. HPB are widely present in the global environment, and their distribution follows a latitudinal diversity gradient. Climate and anthropogenic factors are identified as major drivers of the global distribution of HPB. Our predictions indicated that by the end of this century, the richness, abundance, and invasion risk of HPB will increase globally, with this upward trend becoming more pronounced as development sustainability declines. Therefore, the threat of environmentally mediated HPB infections to human health may be more severe in a world where anthropogenic activities are intensifying and the global climate is warming.}, }
@article {pmid40138343, year = {2025}, author = {Sidik, S}, title = {Climate change impacts have potentially big repercussions for kids' education.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {13}, pages = {e2505073122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2505073122}, pmid = {40138343}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid40137883, year = {2025}, author = {López-Rodríguez, C and Verheecke-Vaessen, C and Strub, C and Fontana, A and Guehi, T and Schorr-Galindo, S and Medina, A}, title = {Resilience to Climate Change by Biocontrol Yeasts Against Ochratoxin A Production in Robusta Coffee.}, journal = {Toxins}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {40137883}, issn = {2072-6651}, support = {1800-0022//Agropolis International/ ; IPP programme//Cranfield University/ ; }, mesh = {*Ochratoxins ; *Climate Change ; *Aspergillus/metabolism/growth &amp; development ; Coffee/microbiology ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Temperature ; Coffea/microbiology ; Food Contamination/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Aspergillus carbonarius is the main producer of Ochratoxin A (OTA) in coffee. In the last few years, there has been an increasing interest in using yeast isolates as Biocontrol Agents to prevent OTA production in coffee cherries during the primary postharvest processing. Little is known about how climate change abiotic conditions of increased temperature (+2-4 °C), elevated CO2 (existing levels of 400 vs. 1000 ppm), and increased drought stress will impact biocontrol resilience. This study examined the effect of a three-way interaction between temperature (27, 30, and 33 °C) x water activity (aw) (0.90 and 0.95 aw) x CO2 level (400 vs. 1000 ppm) on the growth and OTA production of A. carbonarius and the resilience of three yeast strains' biocontrol capacity on fresh coffee cherries. High aw (0.95), CO2, and temperature levels increased the production of OTA by A. carbonarius. All the yeast biocontrol strains significantly reduced A. carbonarius growth by at least 20% and OTA production by up to 85%. From the three strains used, the Meyerozyma caribbica strain (Y4) showed the best resilience to climate change, since it reduced both growth (50%) and OTA production (70%) under future scenarios of CO2 and aw at all temperatures tested, and should be the one selected for pilot scale experiments in Ivory Coast.}, }
@article {pmid40136560, year = {2025}, author = {Hu, C and Wu, H and Zhang, G}, title = {Evaluating Habitat Suitability for the Endangered Sinojackia xylocarpa (Styracaceae) in China Under Climate Change Based on Ensemble Modeling and Gap Analysis.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {40136560}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {No. 2023053SMnull0162//Jiangsu Forestry Bureau/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a profound effect on plant growth and distribution on a global scale [...].}, }
@article {pmid40136499, year = {2025}, author = {Abedin, I and Kamalakannan, M and Mukherjee, T and Choudhury, A and Singha, H and Abedin, J and Banerjee, D and Kim, HW and Kundu, S}, title = {Fading into Obscurity: Impact of Climate Change on Suitable Habitats for Two Lesser-Known Giant Flying Squirrels (Sciuridae: Petaurista) in Northeastern India.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {40136499}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {Autonomous Creative Academic Research Fund 2024-2025 (202416560001)//Pukyong National University, Busan, South Korea/ ; }, abstract = {In recent years, global warming has become a major driver of biodiversity loss, significantly impacting various vertebrate species, including mammals. Consequently, numerous smaller species face extinction risks due to anthropogenic factors as well as inadequate assessments and conservation planning. Thus, this study focuses on two recently described endemic giant flying squirrel species under the Petaurista genus-Petaurista mishmiensis and Petaurista mechukaensis-found in Arunachal Pradesh, India. Using an ensemble species distribution model (SDM), this research delineates suitable habitats for these lesser-known species and evaluates the effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on these areas. This analysis aims to inform a comprehensive management plan for their conservation. The ensemble model identified suitable habitat patches for the two species, extending beyond their current IUCN-designated ranges in Arunachal Pradesh. Under present conditions, P. mishmiensis has the largest predicted suitable area (9213 sq. km), followed by P. mechukaensis (6754 sq. km). However, future projections reveal alarming habitat losses ranging from 13.45% to 55.86% across the study area. This study also highlights severe habitat fragmentation throughout the state as viable patches for P. mishmiensis are drastically reduced in size, resulting in many being completely lost and the remaining areas being closer together. However, the P. mechukaensis experiences significant disintegration, resulting in numerous smaller, more dispersed patches within Arunachal Pradesh. Hence, to address these challenges, this study recommends several actions such as genetic assessments to confirm evolutionary relationships, evaluations of corridor connectivity, and comprehensive field studies. Furthermore, establishing joint forest conservation committees involving local communities, forest personnel, defense forces, naturalists, and scientists are also encouraged. Ultimately, this research provides critical insights for guiding future field studies across Arunachal Pradesh's vast landscapes and supports the development of detailed species management plans to protect these endemic flying squirrels.}, }
@article {pmid40134618, year = {2025}, author = {Zhou, H and Li, A and Luo, X and Wang, J and Xie, Y and Lin, Z and Hua, D}, title = {Climate change impacts on the predicted geographic distribution of Betula tianschanica Rupr.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1528255}, pmid = {40134618}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Betula tianschanica Rupr. is distributed in regions such as China, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Owing to the impacts of climate change, it is increasingly threatened by habitat fragmentation, resulting in a precipitous decline in its population. Currently listed as endangered on the Red List of Trees of Central Asia, this species is predominantly found in the Tianshan Mountains. Examining the influence of climate change on the geographical distribution pattern of Betula tianschanica is crucial for the management and conservation of its wild resources.<br><br>METHODS: This study employed two models, maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and random forest (RF), combined with 116 distribution points of Betula tianschanica and 27 environmental factor variables, to investigate the environmental determinants of the distribution of Betula tianschanica and project its potential geographical distribution areas.<br><br>RESULTS: The MaxEnt model and the RF model determined the primary environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of Betula tianschanica. The MaxEnt model showed that the percentage of gravel volume in the lower soil layer and elevation are the most significant, while the RF model considered elevation and precipitation of the wettest quarter to be the most crucial. Both models unanimously asserted that elevation is the pivotal environmental element affecting the distribution of Betula tianschanica.The mean area under the curve (AUC) scores for the MaxEnt model and RF were 0.970 and 0.873, respectively, revealing that the MaxEnt model outperformed the RF model in predictive accuracy. Consequently, the present study employed the estimated geographical area for Betula tianschanica modeled by the MaxEnt model as a reference. Following the MaxEnt model's projected outcomes, Betula tianschanica is mainly located in territories such as the Tianshan Mountains, Ili River Basin, Lake Issyk-Kul, Turpan Basin, Irtysh River, Ulungur River, Bogda Mountains, Kazakh Hills, Lake Balkhash, Amu River, and the middle reaches of the Syr River.Within the MaxEnt model, the total suitable habitat area exhibits growth across all scenarios, with the exception of a decline observed during the 2041-2060 period under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Remarkably, under the SSP58.5 scenario for the same timeframe, this area expands significantly by 42.7%. In contrast, the RF model demonstrated relatively minor fluctuations in the total suitable habitat area, with the highest recorded increase being 12.81%. This paper recommends establishing protected areas in the Tianshan Mountains, conducting long-term monitoring of its population dynamics, and enhancing international cooperation. In response to future climate change, climate refuges should be established and adaptive management implemented to ensure the survival and reproduction of Betula tianschanica.}, }
@article {pmid40133619, year = {2025}, author = {St George, S}, title = {Climate change will send home insurance spiralling. Here's how to control costs.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {639}, number = {8056}, pages = {839}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-025-00892-9}, pmid = {40133619}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid40132812, year = {2025}, author = {Yao, Y and Jerrett, M and Zhu, T and Kelly, FJ and Zhu, Y}, title = {Equitable energy transitions for a healthy future: combating air pollution and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {388}, number = {}, pages = {e084352}, doi = {10.1136/bmj-2025-084352}, pmid = {40132812}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid40132196, year = {2025}, author = {Portela Dos Santos, O and Alves, PJP and Verloo, H}, title = {Exploring Climate Change's Impact on the Cardiopulmonary Health of Adults Living in the Canton of Valais, Switzerland: Protocol for a Development and Usability Pilot Study.}, journal = {JMIR research protocols}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {e67128}, doi = {10.2196/67128}, pmid = {40132196}, issn = {1929-0748}, mesh = {Humans ; Pilot Projects ; Switzerland ; *Climate Change ; Adult ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Aged ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is affecting public health and well-being. In 2016, Swiss emergency departments (EDs) treated 1,722,000 cases, with 4718 daily admissions. In 2023, the ED of Sion Regional Hospital recorded 75,000 consultations. The links between climate change and health are complex, necessitating urgent research on its impact on cardiopulmonary health in Valais, Switzerland. Raising awareness among frontline professionals is crucial for developing health promotion and disease prevention strategies.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study explores the preliminary effects of climate change on cardiopulmonary health in Valais and assesses adult patients' knowledge of its health consequences. Findings will inform adaptations in patient care, health promotion, and disease prevention at Sion Hospital's ED. The feasibility of patient selection and data collection will also be evaluated.<br><br>METHODS: Using a convergent, parallel, mixed methods design, data will be collected from September 21, 2024, to September 20, 2025, with a target sample of 60 patients. The quantitative phase will examine patient recruitment feasibility, consultation reasons, and triage levels, correlating them with climate variables (temperature, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and ozone). It will also analyze sociodemographic profiles. The qualitative phase will explore patients' knowledge of climate change and its potential links to their ED visits. The feasibility and acceptability of the study process will be assessed. The protocol follows the SPIRIT (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials) Extension for Pilot and Feasibility Trials.<br><br>RESULTS: Data collection started on September 21, 2024, following the approval by the ethical commission. Data collection will take place over 1 year, until September 20, 2025.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study will test the feasibility of a larger investigation and examine potential associations between Valais' changing microclimate and population health. Findings will establish patient profiles and explore their perceptions and knowledge of climate change, informing future health interventions.<br><br>DERR1-10.2196/67128.}, }
@article {pmid40131947, year = {2025}, author = {Syropoulos, S and Sparkman, G}, title = {Most Christian American religious leaders silently believe in climate change, and informing their congregation can help open dialogue.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {13}, pages = {e2419705122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2419705122}, pmid = {40131947}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Christianity ; *Leadership ; United States ; Female ; Male ; Communication ; Attitude ; }, abstract = {Religious leaders shape the attitudes and beliefs of their congregations. In a nationally representative sample of U.S. religious leaders (N = 1,600), the majority of which were of a Christian faith, we find that nearly 90% believe in anthropogenic climate change to some degree. From this 90%, a total of 60% believe humans play a major role and an additional 30% believe they play a role, but a more minor one. Yet roughly half have never discussed it with their congregation, and only a quarter have mentioned it more than once or twice. In a sample of Christian Americans representative of the proportions of major national denominations (N = 987), we find that Christians underestimate the prevalence of their leaders who believe in climate change by 39 to 45 percentage points. Conversely, having a religious leader who talks about climate change predicts greater willingness to discuss it with fellow churchgoers and attend climate events. In an experimental intervention on another sample matching major Christian American denomination (N = 959), we find that providing the actual consensus level of religious leaders' belief in climate change reduces congregants' misperception of religious leaders, increases their perception that other church members believe in and are open to discussing climate change, and leads Christians to believe that taking climate action is consistent with their church's values while voting for politicians who will not take climate action is not.}, }
@article {pmid40128345, year = {2025}, author = {Henkel, S and Richter, R and Andraczek, K and Mundry, R and Dontschev, M and Engelmann, RA and Hartmann, T and Hecht, C and Kasperidus, HD and Rieland, G and Scholz, M and Seele-Dilbat, C and Vieweg, M and Wirth, C}, title = {Ash dieback and hydrology affect tree growth patterns under climate change in European floodplain forests.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {10117}, pmid = {40128345}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Fraxinus/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Trees/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Hydrology ; Germany ; Europe ; Plant Diseases ; Droughts ; }, abstract = {Floodplain forests are currently undergoing substantial reorganization processes due to the combined effects of management-induced altered hydrological conditions, climate change and novel invasive pathogens. Nowadays, the ash dieback is one of the most concerning diseases affecting European floodplain forests, causing substantial tree mortality and threatening the loss of the dominant key tree species of the hardwood floodplain forest, Fraxinus excelsior. Understanding how the increased light availability caused by pathogen-driven mortality in combination with altered hydrological conditions and climate change affects growth responses in a diverse forest community is of crucial importance for conservation efforts. Thus, we examined growth of the main tree species in response to ash dieback and how it depended on altered hydrological conditions under novel climatic conditions for the lower and upper canopy in the floodplain forest of Leipzig, Germany. Our study period encompassed the consecutive drought years from 2018 to 2020. We found that tree growth responded mostly positively to increased light availability, but only on moist sites, while tree growth largely declined on dry sites, suggesting that water availability is a critical factor for tree species to be able to benefit from increased light availability due to canopy disturbances caused by ash dieback. This hydrological effect was species-specific in the lower canopy but not in the upper canopy. While, in the lower canopy, some species such as the competitive shade-tolerant but flood-intolerant Acer pseudoplatanus and Acer platanoides benefited from ash dieback on moist sites, others were less affected or suffered disproportionally, indicating that floodplain forests might turn into a novel ecosystem dominated by competitive Acer species, which may have detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Our results give hints on floodplain forests of the future and have important implications for conservation measures, suggesting that a substantial revitalization of natural hydrological dynamics is important to maintain a tree composition that resembles the existing one and thus sustain their conservation status.}, }
@article {pmid40128313, year = {2025}, author = {Chai, SX and Ma, LP and Ma, ZW and Lei, YT and Ye, YQ and Wang, B and Xiao, YM and Yang, Y and Zhou, GY}, title = {Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of rhododendron on the qinghai-xizang plateau using maxent model.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {10055}, pmid = {40128313}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Rhododendron/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; China ; *Altitude ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {Amid the ongoing trend of global warming, the distribution of habitable areas for Rhododendron is facing significant risks. To investigate the possible spatial distribution of Rhododendron on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in light of future global warming scenarios, we employed the Maximum entropy model (MaxEnt model) to map its suitable habitat using geographic distribution data and environmental factors projected for 2050s and 2070s, considering three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, while identifying the key factors influencing their distribution. The results show that: [1] The area under curve (AUC) values of the five Rhododendron were all greater than 0.98, indicated that the model prediction effect was excellent; [2] Isothermality is the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of Rhododendron (excluding Rhododendron przewalskii). The most important environmental factor for Rhododendron przewalskii is altitude (alt: 51%), with an optimum range of 2700-3300 m, and Rhododendron trichostomum are affected by altitude (alt 18%), with an optimum range of 3200-3900 m. Rhododendron przewalskii (bio12: 21%) and Rhododendron trichostomum(bio12: 19%) are also affected by annual precipitation, and Rhododendron laudandum(bio12: 6%) is less affected by annual precipitation, The optimal amount of precipitation is 400-500 mm as well as 500-800 mm. Rhododendron przewalskii and Rhododendron trichostomum are suitable for survival in high altitude, semi-arid areas [3]. The suitable areas for survival for Rhododendron przewalskii, Rhododendron trichostomum, Rhododendron hypenanthum, and Rhododendron nyingchiense is expanding, while the suitable areas for survival for Rhododendron laudandum is shrinking [4]. The optimal zone for Rhododendron przewalskii is primarily found in the eastern section of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, while suitable areas for survival for the other four Rhododendron species are predominantly located in the southern region of the same plateau. Therefore, these regions will be designated as the primary conservation zones for in-situ preservation. The results of the study provide a basis for the in situ conservation of Rhododendron in response to global warming, relocation conservation, and the construction of nature reserve communities and ecological corridors.}, }
@article {pmid40127768, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, Y and Nguyen, M and Bu, Y}, title = {Consumer alternative protein choice in climate change: temporal landmarks, self-transcendence, and mindset abstraction.}, journal = {Appetite}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {107974}, doi = {10.1016/j.appet.2025.107974}, pmid = {40127768}, issn = {1095-8304}, abstract = {This study explores consumer preferences for alternative proteins within the context of pro-environmental choices. The primary objective is to identify and analyze the factors influencing consumers' choices between alternative and traditional proteins, as well as the moderating conditions that shape these preferences. To achieve this, three sequential studies were conducted to examine the differential effects of temporal landmarks, self-transcendence, and mindset abstraction on protein choice. A randomized mixed experimental design was employed, incorporating both between-subjects and within-subjects components. Findings indicate that consumers exhibit a higher propensity to select alternative proteins during morning hours. Moreover, self-transcendence was found to mediate the relationship between temporal landmarks and protein choices, while mindset abstraction moderated this association. This research uniquely integrates temporal psychology, self-transcendence, and construal level theory to explain dynamic sustainable protein choices under climate change. It introduces morning contexts as novel antecedents of self-transcendence, demonstrating that self-transcendence mediates the impact of temporal landmarks on alternative protein preferences, with this relationship being moderated by mindset abstraction. The theoretical contribution lies in linking micro-level temporal cues to macro-level environmental values, providing a unified framework to address the "when" (time), "why" (self-transcendence), and "for whom" (abstract thinkers) of sustainable choices. Also, this research extends existing knowledge of dynamic sustainable consumption patterns. Practical implications include actionable strategies for policymakers and marketers to design time-sensitive interventions, such as morning-targeted campaigns. These initiatives leverage self-transcendent mindsets and abstract thinking to systematically promote sustainable protein adoption, thereby advancing climate change mitigation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid40127596, year = {2025}, author = {Tuladhar, A and Bailey, RT and Abbas, SA and Shanmugam, MS and Arnold, JG and White, MJ}, title = {Quantifying the impact of climate change and land use change on surface-subsurface nutrient dynamics in a Chesapeake Bay watershed system.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {380}, number = {}, pages = {125101}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125101}, pmid = {40127596}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Nutrients such as nitrogen can be harmful to aquatic organisms in excessive amounts. Climate change, through possible increases in temperature and variable rainfall, may cause changes in nutrient loading patterns from watersheds. This study assesses the potential impact of climate and land use change on nitrate (NO3) loading in the Nanticoke River Watershed (NRW), Chesapeake Bay region, USA, using an updated version of SWAT + watershed model that simulates groundwater nitrate fate and transport in a process based spatially distributed manner. The model was calibrated for the 2000-2015 timeframe and tested against measured streamflow and in-stream nitrate loadings, as well as groundwater head measurements from monitoring wells. After calibration and testing, the model simulated hydrological and nitrate (NO3) flux changes under two future climate scenarios-Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 alongside projected land use changes by the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model. The simulations suggest that under RCP 4.5, streamflow could decrease by 18-34 % and NO3 in-stream loading by 4-22 %, while under RCP 8.5, the projected decreases are 22-33 % for streamflow and 4-11 % for NO3 in-stream loading. Streamflow decrease is due to higher temperatures resulting in higher evapotranspiration during summer months, offsetting increases in precipitation. In-stream NO3 loading is influenced by a decrease in NO3 runoff loading, but an increase in groundwater loading due to increased leaching as plant uptake decreases due to higher surface temperatures. Compared to the influence of climate, land use change results in a minor decrease in NO3 loading. These insights can be used for nutrient management in similar landscapes. Additionally, we show that the updated SWAT + model can be a useful tool in quantifying and investigating NO3 fate and transport in surface-soil-aquifer-channel systems.}, }
@article {pmid40127279, year = {2025}, author = {Wu, M and Wu, X and Saiz-Lopez, A and Blanchfield, PJ and Ren, H and Zhong, H}, title = {Climate change amplifies neurotoxic methylmercury threat to Asian fish consumers.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {13}, pages = {e2421921122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2421921122}, pmid = {40127279}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {52388101//MOST | National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)/ ; U2032201//MOST | National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)/ ; }, mesh = {*Methylmercury Compounds/analysis/toxicity ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Fishes ; Humans ; China ; Food Contamination/analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; Food Chain ; Asia ; Fresh Water/chemistry ; Seafood/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change is intricately influencing the accumulation of neurotoxic methylmercury (MeHg) in human food webs, potentially leading to uneven exposure risks across regions. Here, we reveal that climate change will elevate MeHg risks in China, with implications for regional inequalities in Asia through a climate-mercury-food-health nexus. Using a compiled fish mercury dataset from 13,000 samples and machine learning, we find that freshwater wild fish-an essential component of the Asian diet-is an underappreciated MeHg source. Specifically, MeHg concentrations in freshwater wild fish are 2.9 to 6.2 times higher than in freshwater farmed fish and 1.7 times higher than in marine wild fish. Individual climate factors influence MeHg accumulation differently, while their combined effects significantly increase MeHg concentrations in freshwater wild fish. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 by 2031 to 2060, national average MeHg concentrations in freshwater wild fish are projected to increase by about 60%, adding a maximum annual economic loss of US$18 million (2022 USD) from intelligence quotient decrements in Chinese newborns. This loss may vary regionally within China and among Asian countries, disproportionately affecting less developed areas. Coordinating climate action with mercury emission reduction strategies could mitigate these overlooked regional risks, reduce regional inequalities in food safety, and ultimately contribute to sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid40126024, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, C and Li, Y and Hu, X and Wang, H and Gao, Z and Nie, Y}, title = {Conservation gaps for threatened ungulates in China under human disturbance and climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e70014}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.70014}, pmid = {40126024}, issn = {1523-1739}, support = {32071496//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32225033//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2022YFF1301500//Ministry of Science and Technology of China/ ; }, abstract = {The identification of priority areas and conservation gaps in existing protected areas (PAs) is crucial for conservation of globally threatened species. However, understanding of conservation priorities is generally based on species richness and endemism, often overlooking evolutionary histories, species' functional roles, and the dynamics of all diversity indices relative to human impacts and future climate change. We analyzed the multiple diversity patterns of threatened ungulates in China at a 0.1° resolution under current and future climate scenarios and developed a more comprehensive framework for identifying priority conservation areas. Gross domestic product (GDP), human footprint index (HFP), land use, and climate had the greatest effect on distributions of threatened ungulates. The different facets of biodiversity and their dynamics were inconsistently represented across high-priority conservation areas. Existing PAs poorly represented priority areas based on the 5% highest values for the diversity indices we considered. Coverage of priority areas by PAs ranged from 28.8% to 30.4% under the current scenario alone and under a combination of the current scenario and 2 future scenarios. Only 21.5-22.2% of priority areas in eastern China were covered by PAs under all the scenarios, whereas >91.8% of the areas were threatened by high levels of human impacts. We identified gaps in areas of high priority for conservation of threatened ungulates and PAs in urgent need of strengthening. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple dimensions of diversity when identifying priority areas for threatened species.}, }
@article {pmid40125523, year = {2025}, author = {Bergene, T and Simane, B and Abi, M}, title = {The Role of Climate Change Adaptation in Enhancing Household Food Security: A Case Study of the Hamassa Watershed Agroecologies, Southern Ethiopia.}, journal = {F1000Research}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {188}, pmid = {40125523}, issn = {2046-1402}, mesh = {Ethiopia ; *Climate Change ; *Food Security ; Humans ; *Family Characteristics ; *Agriculture ; Farmers ; Food Supply ; Female ; Male ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change adaptation is an incomparable prior measure to tackle unpreventable climate calamities to enhance smallholder farming and food security. This empirical study assesses smallholder farmers' adaptation options to climate change or variability for achieving food security.<br><br>METHODS: Data were gathered from a survey of 328 respondents, selected randomly and proportionally from three different agro-ecological zones. Additional qualitative insights were collected through focus group discussions and interviews with key informants to reinforce the findings. The multinomial endogenous switching regression, independent t-test and the instrumental variable (2sls) regression were used as method of analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: The result indicated that ACAC impacted food security positively and significantly in the study area at a percent rate of 12.4, 16.3,18 and 27.7 when households adopting one, two, three, and four ACAC, respectively, in the HFBM case, and the same meaning was obtained from other food security measuring tools. However, the rate and manner of change differ at different agroecologies, signifying careful discernment when applying ACAC at different spacial areas, especially in agroecology. The change in agroecology declares that midlands have a negative likelihood propensity for climate adaptation compared to highlands, while lowlands have positive and insignificant implications. The mean comparison from the independent t-test showed statistically significant adopters and non-adopters food security measures, which also informed the positive contribution of CACA on households' food security. Interestingly, factors such as distance to water sources, land size, ox ownership, crop income, and access to credit influenced food security in diverse ways depending on regional and contextual specifics.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Thus, ACAC impacts food security differently at different rates in different agroecologies in the area. Integrated and tailored technical, institutional, and policy interventions are needed to tackle the calamities of climate change leap to smallholder farming and food security.}, }
@article {pmid40125443, year = {2025}, author = {L'Her, GF and Duncan, NA and Jenkins-Smith, HC and Deinert, MR}, title = {Influence of climate change and accidents on perception differs among energy technologies.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {pgaf079}, pmid = {40125443}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {Risk perceptions of energy systems, and their evolution under climate change and after accidents, affect public acceptance of generation technologies. Despite this, little is understood about how such factors impact public perception at different timescales and the drivers for perception. We use state-of-the-art natural language processing to measure temporal changes in sentiment toward energy technologies using the full Twitter archive for 2009-2022. We find that perception of natural gas and wind has changed little as discussion of climate change on social media increased. However, climate-linked sentiment toward coal, solar, and hydropower has become more negative, while that for nuclear has improved. We also find that all generation technologies experience a drop in supportive discourse after definable accidents, but this typically rebounds with a half-life of <3 days. Yet, nuclear power is an exception in how it reacts to large-scale events. After Fukushima, sentiment returned to its positive preaccident levels with an 11.3-month relaxation half-life.}, }
@article {pmid40122517, year = {2025}, author = {Benoit, JB and Weaving, H and McLellan, C and Terblanche, JS and Attardo, GM and English, S}, title = {Viviparity and obligate blood feeding: tsetse flies as a unique research system to study climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {101369}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2025.101369}, pmid = {40122517}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Tsetse flies (Glossina species) are unique organisms that combine several remarkable traits: they are obligate blood feeders, serve as critical vectors for African trypanosomes, and reproduce through adenotrophic viviparity-a process in which offspring are nourished with milk-like secretions before being born live. Here, we explore how climate change will impact the physiological processes associated with live birth in tsetse. This includes considerations of impacts on how blood feeding, host-pathogen interactions, and host-symbiont dynamics are likely to be impacted by thermal shifts. The highly specialized biology of tsetse flies suggests that this system is likely to have a distinctive response to climate change. Thus, detailed empirical research into these unique features is paramount for predicting tsetse population dynamics under climate change, and cautions against generalising from other well-studied vectors with contrasting ecology and life histories such as mosquitoes and ticks. At the same time, the reproductive biology of tsetse, as well as microbiome and feeding dynamics, allow for a powerful model to investigate climate change through the lens of pregnancy and associated physiological adaptations in an extensively researched invertebrate.}, }
@article {pmid40121763, year = {2025}, author = {García-Rada, E and Buenfil-Ávila, A and Figgener, C and Guzmán, HM and Plotkin, PT and Reygondeau, G and Robalino-Mejía, C and Tittensor, DP and Villalobos, H and Peñaherrera-Palma, C}, title = {Climate change implications in the suitable habitat of olive ridley turtle Lepidochelys olivacea in the Eastern Tropical Pacific.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {207}, number = {}, pages = {107091}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107091}, pmid = {40121763}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {The olive ridley turtle Lepidochelys olivacea is one of the most abundant marine turtle species, but its populations are threatened by various environmental changes, including climate change. Understanding how the marine environment influences it is crucial for conservation efforts. This study models the habitat suitability of L. olivacea in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, a region of significant ecological importance for its nesting and foraging activities. We used remote sensing data from 59 individuals tagged in Panama and Costa Rica between 2009 and 2018. The response was modeled with MaxEnt, using a presence-only approach and environmental variables including sea surface temperature, ocean mixed layer thickness, chlorophyll-a concentration, and current velocity. We categorized months into warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) conditions, providing insight into climate change effects. Results reveal that chlorophyll-a concentration and sea surface temperature best predicted the presence of L. olivacea. The intertropical convergence zone exhibited high habitat suitability, especially in the Central Pacific. During El Niño, suitable habitat declined, primarily along coastlines, while, during La Niña, it expanded, favoring oceanic waters and temperate temperatures in upwelling zones. These findings suggest climate change could significantly impact L. olivacea distribution, potentially shifting nesting and foraging areas.}, }
@article {pmid40120630, year = {2025}, author = {Dasandi, N and Jankin, S and Pantera, DK and Romanello, M}, title = {Public engagement with health and climate change around the world: a Google Trends analysis.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {e236-e244}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00029-4}, pmid = {40120630}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Global Health ; Information Seeking Behavior ; Community Participation ; Internet ; }, abstract = {Despite growing recognition of the importance of people engaging with the health dimensions of climate change, we know surprisingly little about the levels of public engagement around the world. We address this knowledge gap by examining Google Trends data, using people's online information-seeking behaviour to shed light on global engagement with health and climate change between 2014 and 2023. We observe that over the past decade-and particularly since 2020-there has been growing public engagement via Google searches with health and climate change around the world. The increasing engagement with the intersection of health and climate change is largely distinct from engagement with either climate change or health separately. We observe that such engagement is highest in low-income and middle-income countries. There is also greater engagement with health and climate change than with other issues that intersect climate change-eg, the economy and security-highlighting the public salience of health framings of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40120623, year = {2025}, author = {Lewycka, S and Skrinjaric, T and Rukomeza, G and Ngo, HHT and Imbach, P}, title = {Nature-based solutions to address climate change and antimicrobial resistance.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {e173}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00052-X}, pmid = {40120623}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid40119160, year = {2025}, author = {Pu, G and Han, L and Chen, L and Wan, D and Teng, H}, title = {Elevational dynamics of vegetation changes in response to climate change on the Tibetan plateau.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {9813}, pmid = {40119160}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {41901055, 32060370//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41901055, 32060370//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Tibet ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Altitude ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Understanding long-term vegetation dynamics is essential for assessing ecosystem responses to climate change, particularly in ecologically sensitive regions like the Tibetan Plateau. While numerous studies have analyzed vegetation changes on the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2015 using remote sensing data, most have been limited by insufficient temporal coverage and low-resolution datasets, constraining the accuracy of trend detection and driver analysis. To address this gap, we utilize a high-resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset, generated by merging GIMMS and SPOT data via the Extended Observation Time (EOT) algorithm, to investigate vegetation trends, breakpoints, and their climatic drivers over 34 years, with a specific focus on elevation effects. Our results indicate a predominant greening trend, with NDVI increasing in 86% of the area and browning in 14%, and an average greening rate of 0.0012 per decade. However, this trend varies with elevation: greening is most pronounced below 1000 m, followed by 1000-2000 m and 3000-4000 m, while the weakest greening occurs at 2000-3000 m. Breakpoint analysis reveals major shifts around 1998, with 70.1% of vegetation experiencing abrupt changes between 1996 and 2000, and 59.4% showing their first breakpoint in 1998. The highest NDVI breakpoint rate (27%) is observed at 2000-3000 m. Additionally, we find that temperature exerts a stronger influence on NDVI dynamics than precipitation. These findings underscore the complex interactions between vegetation, elevation, and climate, emphasizing the need for enhanced ecological monitoring and conservation efforts. Future research should incorporate additional climatic variables and improved modeling techniques to refine our understanding of vegetation responses in this high-altitude environment.}, }
@article {pmid40118318, year = {2025}, author = {Abbasi, E}, title = {The impact of climate change on Aedes aegypti distribution and dengue fever prevalence in semi-arid regions: A case study of Tehran Province, Iran.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {275}, number = {}, pages = {121441}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.121441}, pmid = {40118318}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change profoundly affects ecosystems and public health, particularly by altering the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the distribution and biological behavior of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and the prevalence of dengue fever in Tehran Province, a semi-arid region of Iran. Over the past two decades, the province has experienced significant climatic shifts, including a 7.3 % increase in average annual temperature, a 12.5 % decrease in rainfall, and a 50 % rise in the number of hot days, creating favorable conditions for vector proliferation.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: Climatic data analysis, field monitoring of mosquito populations, and species distribution modeling (SDM) were employed to understand the ecological and epidemiological dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Tehran. Key variables such as temperature, rainfall, and artificial water sources were analyzed. Predictive models assessed the expansion of suitable mosquito habitats under moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) climate scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: Field data revealed an 87.5&#xa0;% increase in mosquito density in urban areas and a doubling of densities in peri-urban and natural areas over two decades. Biological studies showed increases in mosquito lifespan (+50&#xa0;%), egg production (+50&#xa0;%), and larval development rates (+33&#xa0;%) under warmer conditions. Predictive modeling indicated an 83&#xa0;% expansion in suitable habitats by 2050 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Epidemiological data revealed a 200&#xa0;% increase in dengue cases in urban areas and a 140-150&#xa0;% rise in peri-urban and natural areas, driven by the expanding geographic range of Aedes aegypti.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The findings highlight the critical role of climate change in driving mosquito population growth and disease transmission in semi-arid regions. Enhanced surveillance, climate-resilient urban planning, and integrated vector control measures are essential to mitigate these risks. This study provides actionable insights into the complex relationship between climate change and vector-borne diseases, underscoring the urgent need for targeted public health interventions to prevent future outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid40118163, year = {2025}, author = {Abbasi, E}, title = {The impact of climate change on travel-related vector-borne diseases: A case study on dengue virus transmission.}, journal = {Travel medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {65}, number = {}, pages = {102841}, doi = {10.1016/j.tmaid.2025.102841}, pmid = {40118163}, issn = {1873-0442}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change significantly affects global health, particularly through the increased transmission of vector-borne diseases like dengue fever. This study examines how climate change influences the geographical spread of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, the main carriers of dengue, highlighting its implications for public health worldwide.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study employed a comprehensive approach to evaluate the effect of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics. It included environmental data analysis, mosquito population surveys, and dengue case reports. Remote sensing data was used to track changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity in dengue-prone areas. Field surveys measured mosquito density, while molecular techniques assessed viral load in Aedes mosquitoes. Additionally, mathematical modeling predicted dengue's future spread under various climate scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: The findings indicate a significant correlation between rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and the expansion of Aedes aegypti habitats, resulting in increased mosquito populations in previously non-endemic areas. This ecological shift is linked to a rise in dengue incidence in regions affected by climate change. Projections suggest a 25&#xa0;% increase in dengue spread by 2050, especially in Southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of South America.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The study highlights the significant effects of climate change on mosquito distribution and the increasing rates of dengue fever. Warmer temperatures and altered rainfall patterns enhance mosquito growth and virus transmission, while global travel aids the spread of the virus. It emphasizes the necessity for early intervention strategies, including better surveillance, vector control, and adaptations to climate changes, to tackle future dengue transmission issues.}, }
@article {pmid40117774, year = {2025}, author = {Wei, L and Yang, Y and Gao, H and Wang, R and Cao, F and Huang, Q}, title = {Biogeochemical impact on the distribution variations of organophosphorus flame retardants in estuarine area and insight into climate change.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {491}, number = {}, pages = {137993}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2025.137993}, pmid = {40117774}, issn = {1873-3336}, abstract = {This study investigated the biogeochemical dynamics influencing the distribution of organophosphorus flame retardants (OPFRs) from the Changjiang Estuary to the adjacent East China Sea, a region characterized by pronounced physicochemical gradients. Twelve out of thirteen OPFR congeners, including traditional and emerging OPFRs, were detected in sediments and seawater samples. Tris(2-chloroethyl) phosphate (TCEP) and tris(2-chloroisopropyl) phosphate (TCIPP) were the dominant congeners. Intensive relationships emerged between OPFR concentrations and biogeochemical parameters. Turbidity maximum zone (TMZ) was identified as a critical hotspot for OPFR pollution. Elevated OPFR levels in nutrient-rich upwelling and offshore regions suggest linkages to biological processes and potential ecological impacts. Furthermore, OPFR concentrations in seawater displayed inverse correlations with tidal fluctuations, highlighting hydrodynamic influences on contaminant dispersal. Based on the relationship between biogeochemical parameters and OPFR concentrations, a Random Forest (RF) model was developed to project OPFR concentrations for the year 2100 under a high-emission climate-change scenario (RCP 8.5). The prediction results were marginally lower compared to current conditions, and temperature emerged as the most significant driver of future OPFRs changes. Notably, emerging OPFRs presented comparable ecological risk to traditional OPFRs, which should be a concern in future regulations.}, }
@article {pmid40116041, year = {2025}, author = {Flock, C and Boekels, R and Herrmann, A and Beig, I and Lamkemeyer, L and Friederich, HC and Nikendei, C and Bugaj, TJ}, title = {Final year medical students' expectations for medical education on climate change and planetary health - a qualitative study.}, journal = {Medical education online}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {2477670}, pmid = {40116041}, issn = {1087-2981}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Students, Medical/psychology ; *Qualitative Research ; *Curriculum ; Education, Medical, Undergraduate ; Interviews as Topic ; Female ; Male ; Global Health/education ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: With the health impacts of climate change becoming increasingly evident, there is a pressing need to prepare and educate future physicians to address these challenges. This study therefore aims to explore in depth the perspectives of final-year medical students (FYMS) on the integration of Planetary Health Education (PHE) into medical curricula (i.e. content, methods, exams). Additionally, it seeks to understand how FYMS perceive the relevance of this topic to their future profession and their perceived responsibility.<br><br>METHODS: FYMS at the Heidelberg University Hospital were invited to participate in this qualitative interview study, resulting in 10 interviews conducted between December 2021 and March 2022. Using a semi-structured guide, students' views on the role of climate change in their future profession and their preferences for integrating climate change into medical curricula were explored. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data analysis followed a structuring qualitative content analysis approach according to Kuckartz, utilizing deductive and inductive methods. Coding was performed using MAXQDA24, with iterative revisions by the authors.<br><br>RESULTS: Participating FYMS recognized the relevance of climate change to their future practice but expressed varying degrees of perceived responsibility in addressing it with patients, e.g. depending on their desired specialization. While often struggling to identify specific content for a PHE-curriculum, FYMS emphasized the wish for knowledge on health impacts of climate change, communication skills and interactive, practice-oriented teaching methods. FYMS also reported several reservations and perceived challenges, e.g. concerning the integration of basic climate science or the introduction of mandatory exams.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study provides unique insights into FYMS' perceptions of PHE, emphasizing the importance of integrating climate change and health topics into medical curricula and revealing perceived limitations. By aligning educational approaches with students' preferences and especially their concerns, appealing curricula can ultimately foster a more climate-sensitive medical practice.}, }
@article {pmid40115352, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, X and Shang, M and Wang, Z and Ji, H and Wang, Z and Liu, Q}, title = {Projecting the potential distribution of Rickettsia japonica in China and Asian adjacent regions under climate change using the Maxent model.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1478736}, pmid = {40115352}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {*Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; China/epidemiology ; *Rickettsia/isolation &amp; purification ; Animals ; Rickettsia Infections/epidemiology ; Humans ; Ixodidae/microbiology ; Seasons ; Asia ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To determine the current and future suitable areas of Rickettsia japonica, and to provide a reference for preventing its outbreak and spread.<br><br>METHODS: Based on the geographic distribution of R. japonica and Haemaphysalis longicornis overlapping data points and information on 56 climatic factors, we utilized the Maxent model to estimate suitable areas for R. japonica in Asian adjacent Regions and China. Model parameter adjustments and the construction of receiver operating characteristic curves were conducted using R 4.3.0 software.<br><br>RESULTS: Average precipitation in June (prec6, 28.2%), Temperature Seasonality (bio4, 9.8%) and the minimum temperature in August (tmin8, 9.2%) contributed most to the distribution of R. japonica. The performance metrics for the Maxent model in predicting the distribution of R. japonica are as follows: the Area Under the Curve (AUC) is 0.990, the True Skill Statistic (TSS) is 0.857, and the Kappa statistic is 0.763. Under current climatic conditions, the Asian and adjacent space medium and highly suitable areas for R. japonica are estimated to be 176.78&#x202f;&#xd7;&#x202f;10[4]&#x202f;km[2] and 95.13&#x202f;&#xd7;&#x202f;10[4]&#x202f;km[2], respectively. The highly suitable areas for R. japonica were mainly distributed in east and south Asia. In China, the high suitability areas are mainly distributed in the southeast coastal areas and the Qinling Mountains and Huai River cities. Under future climatic conditions, the Asian and adjacent regions maximum area change rate of R. japonica increased by 118.65%, and that of China increased by 50.42%. Meanwhile, the suitable areas of R. japonica gradually expanding northward in China.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Under global climate change, the suitable area of R. japonica is generally increasing, with a northward shift observed in China. Governments should strengthen monitoring, risk assessment, and response strategies in highly suitable regions, while also preventing the invasion of R. japonica from external source.}, }
@article {pmid40115027, year = {2025}, author = {Yu, H}, title = {Climate change unveils hidden microbial dangers.}, journal = {Environmental science and ecotechnology}, volume = {24}, number = {}, pages = {100544}, pmid = {40115027}, issn = {2666-4984}, abstract = {Climate change is driving unprecedented transformations in aquatic ecosystems, where microorganisms play a fundamental role in maintaining ecological balance and human health security. Rising water temperatures, pollution intensification, and extreme weather events are driving significant shifts in microbial community structures. These changes facilitate the proliferation of pathogenic microorganisms such as Vibrio cholerae and harmful algae like cyanobacteria, which thrive in warmer, nutrient-enriched environments. The resulting harmful algal blooms release potent toxins, such as microcystins, that contaminate drinking water and food supplies, leading to severe health impacts, including liver diseases and carcinogenesis. Furthermore, antibiotic resistance genes are spreading more rapidly due to climate-induced stressors, increasing the prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens and compounding the challenges for global health systems. This discussion article demonstrates that climate change influences aquatic microbial ecosystems through interconnected mechanisms, including shifts in gene transfer networks, alterations in microbial metabolism, and ecological feedback loops, ultimately increasing waterborne disease risks and antimicrobial resistance. Specific solutions are proposed, such as advancing wastewater treatment technologies to address climate-induced pollution, establishing global microbial monitoring networks leveraging remote sensing and molecular tools, and implementing early warning systems for waterborne disease outbreaks. Additionally, the discussion article emphasizes the critical role of international cooperation in funding and capacity-building efforts, particularly in developing regions with fragile infrastructures. By highlighting these pressing challenges and proposing actionable strategies, this research underscores the urgent need for integrated approaches to safeguard water resources, mitigate microbial hazards, and enhance public health resilience in an era of accelerating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40115664, year = {2023}, author = {Kowal, KM and Slater, LJ and García López, A and Van Loon, AF}, title = {A comparison of seasonal rainfall forecasts over Central America using dynamic and hybrid approaches from Copernicus Climate Change Service seasonal forecasting system and the North American Multimodel Ensemble.}, journal = {International journal of climatology : a journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, volume = {43}, number = {5}, pages = {2175-2199}, pmid = {40115664}, issn = {0899-8418}, abstract = {Seasonal rainfall forecasts provide information several months ahead to support decision making. These forecasts may use dynamic, statistical, or hybrid approaches, but their comparative value is not well understood over Central America. This study conducts a regional evaluation of seasonal rainfall forecasts focusing on two of the leading dynamic climate ensembles: the Copernicus Climate Change Service seasonal forecasting system (C3S) and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). We compare the multimodel ensemble mean and individual model predictions of seasonal rainfall over key wet season periods in Central America to better understand their relative forecast skill at the seasonal scale. Three types of rainfall forecasts are compared: direct dynamic rainfall predictions from the C3S and NMME ensembles, a statistical approach using the lagged observed sea surface temperature (SST), and an indirect hybrid approach, driving a statistical model with dynamic ensemble SST predictions. Results show that C3S and NMME exhibit similar regional variability with strong performance in the northern Pacific part of Central America and weaker skill primarily in eastern Nicaragua. In the northern Pacific part of the region, the models have high skill across the wet season. Indirect forecasts can outperform the direct rainfall forecasts in specific cases where the direct forecasts have lower predictive power (e.g., eastern Nicaragua during the early wet season). The indirect skill generally reflects the strength of SST associations with rainfall. The indirect forecasts based on Tropical North Atlantic SSTs are best in the early wet season and the indirect forecasts based on Niño3.4 SSTs are best in the late wet season when each SST zone has a stronger association with rainfall. Statistical predictions are competitive with the indirect and direct forecasts in multiple cases, especially in the late wet season, demonstrating how a variety of forecasting approaches can enhance seasonal forecasting.}, }
@article {pmid40113947, year = {2025}, author = {Bhuyan, A and Bawri, A and Saikia, BP and Baidya, S and Hazarika, S and Thakur, B and Chetry, V and Deka, BS and Bharali, P and Prakash, A and Sarma, K and Devi, A}, title = {Predicting habitat suitability of Illicium griffithii under climate change scenarios using an ensemble modeling approach.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {9691}, pmid = {40113947}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; India ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the most significant threat to global biodiversity, risking extinction for many species due to their limited adaptability to rapidly changing environmental conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Illicium griffithii, an endangered tree with ecological and medicinal value, remains understudied, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh. The aim of the study is to identify key environmental variables influencing the current distribution of I. griffithii and to predict the potential distribution under current and future climatic scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). We used an ensemble modeling approach that integrates five species distribution models (SDMs). After multicollinearity test, we utilized fifteen environmental variables including bioclimatic variables, soil properties, topographical variables, and evapotranspiration to predict the potential distribution of I. griffithii. The study revealed that the current distribution is predominantly influenced by isothermality, nitrogen content at 0-5 cm depth, clay content at 0-5 cm depth, and seasonality of precipitation, with a total contribution rate of 42.6%. The ensemble model performed robustly and found to be excellent performance based on AUC of 0.94 and TSS of 0.83. The total highly suitable area for I. griffithii spans 722.72 km[2] in the current scenario, primarily located in West Kameng, Tawang, and East Kameng districts. West Kameng stands out as the largest high-suitability area, which covers 592.83 km[2] and contributing a substantial 82.03% of the total suitable area. However, under the SSP585 future climate scenario (2041-2060), projections reveal a concerning decline in highly suitable areas. The area is expected to shrink by over 5.05%, decreasing from 722.72 to 686.25 km[2]. The results have highlighted the vulnerability of I. griffithii under future climatic scenario. Hence, forest managers should prioritize conserving suitable habitats in West Kameng, Tawang, and East Kameng districts of Arunachal Pradesh by implementing habitat restoration, assisted migration and ex situ conservation strategies that can mitigate climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid40113777, year = {2025}, author = {Jiang, J and Chen, JF and Li, XT and Wang, L and Mao, JF and Wang, BS and Guo, YL}, title = {Incorporating genetic load contributes to predicting Arabidopsis thaliana's response to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {2752}, pmid = {40113777}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {31925004//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 32430008//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, mesh = {*Acclimatization/physiology ; Arabidopsis Proteins/genetics ; Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Load ; Population ; *Arabidopsis/genetics ; }, abstract = {Understanding how species respond to climate change can facilitate species conservation and crop breeding. Current prediction frameworks about population vulnerability focused on predicting range shifts or local adaptation but ignored genetic load, which is also crucial for adaptation. By analyzing 1115 globally distributed Arabidopsis thaliana natural accessions, we find that effective population size (Ne) is the major contributor of genetic load variation, both along genome and among populations, and can explain 74-94% genetic load variation in natural populations. Intriguingly, Ne affects genetic load by changing both effectiveness of purifying selection and GC biased gene conversion strength. In particular, by incorporating genetic load, genetic offset and species distribution models (SDM), we predict that, the populations at species' range edge are generally at higher risk. The populations at the eastern range perform poorer in all aspects, southern range have higher genetic offset and lower SDM suitability, while northern range have higher genetic load. Among the diverse natural populations, the Yangtze River basin population is the most vulnerable population under future climate change. Overall, here we deciphered the driving forces of genetic load in A. thaliana, and incorporated SDM, local adaptation and genetic load to predict the fate of populations under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40113629, year = {2025}, author = {Moldovan, OT and Levei, E and Ferreira, RL and Silva, MS and Mirea, IC}, title = {Exploring the Bacteriome Diversity and Use as a Proxy for Climate Change and Human Impacts on Groundwater in Temperate and Tropical Countries.}, journal = {Microbial ecology}, volume = {88}, number = {1}, pages = {17}, pmid = {40113629}, issn = {1432-184X}, support = {PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0016 (DARKFOOD)//Ministry of Research and Innovation, CNCS - UEFISCDI/ ; PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0016 (DARKFOOD)//Ministry of Research and Innovation, CNCS - UEFISCDI/ ; PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0016 (DARKFOOD)//Ministry of Research and Innovation, CNCS - UEFISCDI/ ; GA N&#xb0;101052342//Biodiversa+, the European Biodiversity Partnership/ ; CNPq n. 302925/2022-8//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; CNPq n. 302925/2022-8//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; }, mesh = {*Groundwater/microbiology/chemistry ; *Bacteria/classification/genetics/isolation &amp; purification ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Caves/microbiology ; Romania ; Humans ; Microbiota ; Seasons ; Biodiversity ; Tropical Climate ; Ecosystem ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {This research investigates bacterial communities in various cave pool water and substrates from Brazil and Romania for their use as indicators of environmental impacts on groundwater. Regional and seasonal differences were observed even if, at the phylum level, common bacteria for both countries were found. Distinct patterns emerged at the genus level due to the different climates (tropical vs. temperate) and ecosystems. Chemoautotrophic conditions define an utterly different groundwater bacteriome than oligotrophic conditions independent of the temperature. Bacteria as a proxy for climate change were explored using seasonal changes in Romanian caves; specific genera become dominant in summer months, such as Acinetobacter, Paeniglutamicibacter, Polaromonas, and Saccharimonadales, indicating processes that occur during the low-water season. Climate change, particularly dryness, is expected to exacerbate these variations, threatening the stability of groundwater ecosystems. The research also identified anthropic pollution indicators (Vogesella, Cutibacterium) and potential decontaminants (Bacillus) in Brazilian cave waters. Anthropic pollution indicators, like Pseudoarthrobacter. were also found in Romanian caves. Other key bacteria genera, such as Flavobacterium, Pseudomonas, and Acinetobacter, are chemolithotrophs or involved in the nitrogen cycle, which is critical in supplying nutrients for the cave food web. Marked differences between water and substrate microbiomes within the same pools suggested that substrates may play a crucial, underexplored role in groundwater ecosystem processes. Our study found unassigned taxa, 3 phyla, 2 families, and 832 genera (> 40%) in the studied pools. The results underscore the need to further explore groundwater microbiomes as potentially crucial yet fragile ecosystems in the face of climate change and human impacts.}, }
@article {pmid40113619, year = {2025}, author = {Rathebe, PC and Mphaga, KV and Masekameni, DM}, title = {Climate change and environmental radioactivity: a review of studies on climate conditions in variation on indoor radon concentrations.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {4}, pages = {446}, pmid = {40113619}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Radon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Air Pollution, Indoor/analysis/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Radiation Monitoring ; *Air Pollutants, Radioactive/analysis ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly recognized as a critical factor influencing various environmental and public health issues. This paper discusses the link between climate change parameters and elevated indoor radon levels, aiming to highlight the necessity for urgent public health intervention. By examining temperature fluctuations, precipitation patterns, extreme weather events, and geological changes, the paper elucidates how these factors contribute to the variability of indoor radon concentrations. A review of 31 indoor radon studies from different countries revealed substantial variation in indoor radon concentrations. The weighted mean indoor radon concentration was 178 Bq/m[3], with a standard deviation of 193 Bq/m[3]. The minimum and maximum concentrations measured were 14.3 Bq/m[3] and 1083 Bq/m[3], respectively. Drawing from the findings of other scholars, a significant correlation between climate change and increased radon levels in residential areas has been revealed, suggesting potential health risks for occupants. This paper underscores the urgent need for public health strategies and policies to mitigate radon exposure, enhance awareness, and protect vulnerable populations. There is an urgent need for comprehensive measures, including improved building practices, regular radon monitoring, and robust public health campaigns to address the emerging threat posed by climate-induced radon exposure.}, }
@article {pmid40113181, year = {2025}, author = {Freitas Barroso, R and Cardoso, VL and Alves, AG and Lira, AFA and Ferreira, RG and Costa, LF and Tizo-Pedroso, E}, title = {Climate change increases public health risks from Tityus scorpion stings in Brazil.}, journal = {Toxicon : official journal of the International Society on Toxinology}, volume = {258}, number = {}, pages = {108326}, doi = {10.1016/j.toxicon.2025.108326}, pmid = {40113181}, issn = {1879-3150}, abstract = {Urban environments provide Tityus scorpions with abundant prey and shelter, leading to increased human-scorpion encounters and associated public health risks. In this study, we model the distribution of seven medically relevant Tityus species and project the potential impacts of climate change on their distribution across Brazil by 2060. We compiled 1103 occurrence records from the GBIF, iNaturalist, SpeciesLink, and SiBBr databases and applied ecological niche modeling using climate projections for 2041-2060 from WorldClim. Model validation yielded high AUC values, demonstrating a strong agreement between observed distributions and model predictions. Future climate scenarios predict a reduction in Tityus serrulatus habitat suitability. Despite this reduction, models indicate an increase in high-suitability areas, suggesting a possible local expansion in optimal habitats. Conversely, T. metuendus, T. obscurus, and T. silvestris are expected to undergo a significant increase in habitat suitability, potentially expanding into previously unsuitable areas due to temperature and precipitation shifts. Tityus stigmurus is also projected to benefit from climate change with an increase in suitable habitats, although its expansion is more restricted compared to the other species. In contrast, T. bahiensis and T. trivittatus are expected to face a reduction in habitat suitability. These findings highlight that climate-driven habitat reduction may concentrate scorpion populations in densely populated areas, exacerbating public health risks. Therefore, targeted governmental interventions are crucial to mitigate the escalating threat posed by Tityus scorpions in urban settings under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid40112762, year = {2025}, author = {Dominguez-Rodriguez, A and Apprich, F and Friehs, MA and van der Graaf, S and Steinrücke, J}, title = {Climate change news and doomscrolling: An examination of influencing factors and psychological effects.}, journal = {Acta psychologica}, volume = {255}, number = {}, pages = {104925}, doi = {10.1016/j.actpsy.2025.104925}, pmid = {40112762}, issn = {1873-6297}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human life, and news about it can significantly impact mental health. Furthermore, doomscrolling, that is habitual negative consumption, may further exacerbate these effects. Understanding the associated risks and protective factors is crucial for supporting the most affected groups. However, no research has examined the relationship between doomscrolling and climate change news.<br><br>METHOD: We employed a cross-sectional design to investigate the relationship between general doomscrolling and climate change-specific doomscrolling in a sample of 365 participants. Furthermore, we examined the influence of demographic factors, risk factors (anxiety and depression), and protective factors (social support and coping skills) on both types of doomscrolling.<br><br>RESULTS: Analyses of the final sample revealed a significant positive correlation between general doomscrolling and climate change-specific doomscrolling. Additionally, the study suggests a gender difference, with females exhibiting a greater propensity for doomscrolling behavior. Risk factors for doomscrolling were explored, with both anxiety and depressive symptoms demonstrating positive associations. Depression correlated positively with doomscrolling for females, and it displayed a negative correlation for males. Anxiety consistently demonstrated a positive association with general and climate change-specific doomscrolling. Social support did not significantly protect against either form of doomscrolling. Conversely, the study identified coping skills as a potential protective factor, albeit with a modest effect size.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Given climate change's continued prominence within the news cycle, developing effective coping mechanisms becomes increasingly crucial. This study underscores the importance of designing interventions that empower individuals to navigate the negativity inherent in news consumption.}, }
@article {pmid40112255, year = {2025}, author = {Kerth, G and Wolf, JM}, title = {In-situ responses of temperate-zone bats to climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.15317}, pmid = {40112255}, issn = {1749-6632}, abstract = {There is growing evidence that human-induced climate change poses a major threat to bats. As climate change progresses, we can only hope to mitigate its negative effects on bat populations by gaining a more comprehensive understanding of the complex interactions of all the factors involved. Drawing on recent evidence, largely from long-term field studies of individually marked bats, we discuss the multiple impacts-positive and negative-of climate change on temperate heterothermic bats and their responses to climate change in situ. For example, there is increasing evidence that warmer summers and milder winters are leading to changes in the seasonal phenology of bats, which in turn may lead to species-specific changes in demography, morphology, physiology, food availability, and roost use. We also highlight open research questions on the responses of bats to climate change. This includes better data on population trends and the underlying direct and indirect climate-related causes for changes in mortality and reproductive success. In order to assess the long-term impacts of climate change on bats, more information is needed about the relative importance of phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary adaptation in the responses of bats to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40112232, year = {2025}, author = {Sun, BJ and Lu, HL and Cheng, KM and Liu, WL and Han, XZ and Cui, LX and Li, XH and Li, SR and Hao, X and Li, F and Wu, DY and Li, T and Zhang, YP and Wang, JC and Liu, P and Du, WG}, title = {The Semi-Natural Climate Chambers across Latitudes: A Broadly Applicable Husbandry and Experimental System for Terrestrial Ectotherms under Climate Change.}, journal = {Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e2414185}, doi = {10.1002/advs.202414185}, pmid = {40112232}, issn = {2198-3844}, support = {2022YFF0802300//National Key Research Development Program of China/ ; 31720103904//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32271572//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32071511//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; ZDYF2023RDYL01//Hainan Province Science and Technology Special Fund/ ; KY-24ZK02//Hainan Institute of National Park/ ; 2024IOZ0107//Initiative Scientific Research Program, Institute of Zoology, CAS/ ; Y2023021//Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {With limited resources and efforts, assessing species' vulnerabilities across various geographic regions before the conservation practice is essential for biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change. One pressing challenge has been establishing natural temperature-manipulated research systems across latitudes. To address this challenge, an innovative infrastructure is developed named the semi-natural climate chambers across latitudes (SCCAL), consisting of semi-natural climate chambers at three latitudes, spanning 27° and 3393 km from tropical to temperate regions. Each latitude features eight medium-sized patches for temperature manipulation, organisms rearing, and ecological experiments. Independent of external water and electricity supplies, the SCCAL allows to simulate thermal environments under different climate change scenarios with natural soil moisture. Ecological experiments with Grass lizards successfully are conducted, demonstrating that the SCCAL effectively supports species rearing, responses determining, and the vulnerability assessing. The widespread adoption or development of similar infrastructures is encouraged, which can facilitate the assessment of latitudinal animal vulnerabilities under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40111312, year = {2025}, author = {Levinson, W and Chang, I and Ward, S}, title = {Minimizing the Effects of Surgical Care on Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2025.0883}, pmid = {40111312}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid40110622, year = {2025}, author = {Miroshnyk, N and Grabovska, T and Roubík, H}, title = {The spread of the invasive species Reynoutria japonica Houtt. will both expand and contract with climate change: results of climate modelling for 14 European countries.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.8732}, pmid = {40110622}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {//The Research Institute for Sustainability (RIFS) Potsdam, Germany/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The study of invasive plant species distribution involves changes in their ranges and ecological niches under the projected global temperature increase until 2100. However, climate modeling of habitat suitability for Reynoutria japonica in Europe remains limited, hindering risk assessment and effective management of its spread. We used the MaxEnt model to assess the potential distribution of R. japonica in 14 European countries.<br><br>RESULTS: It was found that the range of the taxon will expand into northern regions by 13.6% or 17.0%, depending on the scenario. However, range contraction in southern and central regions is expected to reach 26%. As a result, by 2100, a slight overall reduction in range (by 9-13%) is projected due to the decrease in distribution areas in southern parts of Europe, where maximum air temperatures will rise. Temperature variability throughout the year and precipitation during the warmest quarter are limiting factors for the spread. The minimum temperature of the growing season will influence distribution projections for 2060, whereas under current climate conditions, this parameter does not have a limiting effect. A general framework for controlling invasions of Reynoutria Houtt. taxa has been developed for both national and international levels.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The study identified the dynamics of the invasive species' spread in Europe in relation to global climate change, assessed the risks of colonization in new areas, and provided tools for regulation and management to improve the prediction of potential distribution. &#xa9; 2025 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid40109392, year = {2025}, author = {Abir, M and Vardavas, R and Tariq, ZH and Hoch, E and Lawson, E and Cortner, S}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Health and Drug Demand.}, journal = {Rand health quarterly}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {13}, pmid = {40109392}, issn = {2162-8254}, abstract = {It is anticipated that extreme weather events due to climate change will increase the prevalence of a number of acute and chronic diseases. As a result, the demand for drugs to prevent or treat those conditions is likely to increase. If the anticipated increase in demand for these drugs is not planned for, already strained medical supply chains will be further strained, resulting in poor health outcomes among affected patient populations and additional costs to health systems. The authors of this study estimated how the anticipated effects of climate change on the prevalence of a sample of four chronic conditions-cardiovascular disease (CVD), asthma, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and Alzheimer's disease-will affect demand for the drugs needed to treat them (metoprolol, albuterol, heparin, and donepezil, respectively). To generate these estimates, the authors conducted an environmental scan of the peer-reviewed and gray literature and developed a medical condition-specific systems dynamics model. The model can help inform policies for ensuring drug supply under various climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid40108348, year = {2025}, author = {Nguyen, TT and Hayashi, T and Iwayama, H and Ishikawa, K}, title = {Valence fragmentation dynamics of a promising low global warming etching gas CF3CHCF2.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {9507}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-025-94119-6}, pmid = {40108348}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {21H01073//JSPS-KAKENHI/ ; 21H01073//JSPS-KAKENHI/ ; JPMJAP2321//JST ASPIRE/ ; JPMJAP2321//JST ASPIRE/ ; }, abstract = {C3HF5 (CF3CHCF2, KSG14), a promising low global warming potential (GWP < 1) alternative to traditional perfluorocarbon etching gases for advanced integrated circuit manufacturing, particularly for high-aspect-ratio SiO2/SiN stacked layers in 3D flash memory. This study investigates the dissociative photoionization dynamics of C3HF5 across 10.0-26.0 eV. Ion yield curves and breakdown diagrams reveal that C3HF5 primarily fragments into C3HF5[+], C3F5[+], C3HF4[+], C3F4[+], C2F3[+], and CF3[+] ions. Appearance Energies of these fragments, determined from the ion yield curves, indicate fragmentation pathways at low electronic transitions. These findings underscore C3HF5's potential as an environmentally friendly etching gas with excellent performance characteristics.}, }
@article {pmid40106997, year = {2025}, author = {Trabelsi, E}, title = {Sustainable tourism for climate change and environmental sustainability in Tunisia: Evidence from a novel measure, nonlinear modeling, and wavelet coherence.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {380}, number = {}, pages = {124991}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124991}, pmid = {40106997}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This study examines the asymmetric impact of international tourism on CO2 emissions and environmental sustainability in Tunisia. Using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model within a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) framework, we construct a composite index via Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Robustness checks include Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Bias-corrected Wavelet coherence, and asymmetric causality analysis through Vector Autoregression (VAR). Findings reveal that tourism traffic asymmetrically affects environmental sustainability, except for carbon emissions, even under nonlinear Granger causality analysis. Trade openness also exerts asymmetric effects, supporting the Pollution Haven hypothesis. Policy recommendations highlight the need for smart strategies such as mobile applications and taxation to track tourism-related carbon footprints, foster youth-led tourism businesses, address brain drain, and advance a circular economy. Sustainable tourism, alongside key structural factors, plays a vital role in shaping long-term environmental quality. Strategic agricultural development, improved governance, and the efficient use of renewable energy are crucial. Enhancing energy security, reducing fossil fuel dependence, and promoting green technology investments are necessary steps. This study contributes uniquely by compiling and updating a dataset based on six environmental criteria-air quality, energy management, biodiversity, health, population pressure, and water resources-while employing advanced econometric techniques.}, }
@article {pmid40106459, year = {2025}, author = {Gil-Clavel, S and Wagenblast, T and Filatova, T}, title = {Incremental and transformational climate change adaptation factors in agriculture worldwide: A comparative analysis using natural language processing.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {e0318784}, pmid = {40106459}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Agriculture ; Humans ; *Natural Language Processing ; Farmers/psychology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is projected to adversely affect agriculture worldwide. This requires farmers to adapt incrementally already early in the twenty-first century, and to pursue transformational adaptation to endure future climate-induced damages. Many articles discuss the underlying mechanisms of farmers' adaptation to climate change using quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods. However, only the former is typically included in quantitative metanalysis of empirical evidence on adaptation. This omits the vast body of knowledge from qualitative research. We address this gap by performing a comparative analysis of factors associated with farmers' climate change adaptation in both quantitative and qualitative literature using Natural Language Processing and generalized linear models. By retrieving publications from Scopus, we derive a database with metadata and associations from both quantitative and qualitative findings, focusing on climate change adaptation of farmers. We use the derived data as input for generalized linear models to analyze whether reported factors behind farmers' decisions differ by type of adaptation (incremental vs. transformational) and across different global regions. Our results show that factors related to adaptive capacity and access to information and technology are more likely to be associated with transformational adaptation than with incremental adaptation. Regarding world regions, access to finance/income and infrastructure are uneven, with farmers in high-income countries having an advantage, whereas farmers in low- and middle-income countries require these the most for effective adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40106423, year = {2025}, author = {Bebeley, JF and Tofa, AI and Kamara, AY and Jibrin, JM and Solomon, R and Adeleke, MA and Omoigui, LO and Eseigbe, OB and Peter-Jerome, H and Ademulegun, TD}, title = {Modelling the potential impact of climate change on the productivity of soybean in the Nigeria Savannas.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {e0313786}, pmid = {40106423}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Glycine max/growth &amp; development ; Nigeria ; Grassland ; Temperature ; Seasons ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Rain ; }, abstract = {A well-calibrated and evaluated GROPGRO module of the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer (DSSAT) was used to simulate productivity of soybean in northern Nigeria under climate change. Both historical (1990-2019) and projected climate scenarios from 5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the mid-century (2040-2069) and end of the century (2070-2099) periods were used. Depending on climate scenario, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 1.7-4.4oC at Kano in the Sudan savanna (SS) agroecological zone (AEZ) and 1.4-4.0oC at Zaria in the northern Guinea savanna (NGS) AEZ, while maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 1.7-4.1oC in the SS and 1.3-3.6oC in the NGS. Seasonal average rainfall will increase by 4.8-14.5% in the SS and decrease by 2.6-3.8% in the NGS, relative to the baseline climate. The model predicted delaying trends for days to flowering and maturity for both varieties in all climate scenarios in the two AEZs. Despite the delay in flowering and increase in crop cycle length, climate change will result in grain yield reduction in most of the future scenarios. Across location, variety and time slice, the grain yield will decline by between 8.4 and 23.6% under RCP4.5 scenario, with much higher decline by between 28.7 and 51.4% under RCP 8.5 scenario. However, using the early maturing variety can reduce the adverse effects of climate change on grain yield. On average, the yield of the early-maturing TGX1835-10E is predicted to be 15.2% higher under RCP4.5 scenario and up to 21.7% under RCP8.5 than that of the medium-maturing TGX1951-3F for both centuries in the SS AEZ. In the NGS, the average yield of TGX1835-10E is predicted to be 9.0% and 7.5% higher than that of TGX1951-3F under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Using early-maturing soybean varieties is a key management strategy to boost the resilience of soybean production in Nigeria's savannas under climate change conditions.}, }
@article {pmid40104966, year = {2025}, author = {Sames, KM}, title = {Impact of climate change on winter occupations in Minnesota.}, journal = {Work (Reading, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {10519815251319223}, doi = {10.1177/10519815251319223}, pmid = {40104966}, issn = {1875-9270}, abstract = {BackgroundClimate change impacts everyone, but the warmer and snow starved winter of 2023-2024 in Minnesota has had devastating impacts on people all over the state. It severely limited participation in typical winter outdoor recreational and leisure activities and resulted in unemployment or underemployment of thousands of Minnesotans.ObjectiveThe aim of this article is to draw attention to the direct impact climate change has on human occupations and suggest ways that occupational therapy practitioners and others can contribute to efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change.MethodsThe author reviewed of publicly available data, news stories, and had conversations with people directly affected by the winter that was unusually warm and dry. This information was then synthesized into this article.ResultsIn Minnesota, the climate in winters is changing faster than in summers. The lack of snow and ice, directly resulted in unemployment or underemployment of thousands of Minnesotans. It cost businesses, clubs, and communities untold dollars in lost revenue. Further, thousands of Minnesotans lost opportunities to ski, skate, snowmobile, ice fish, snowshoe, dogsled, and engage in many other outdoor activities.ConclusionEngagement in outdoor activities is an important part of life in Minnesota. When climate change interferes with these outdoor activities, it is cause for concern. It impacts paid work, volunteer work, recreation, and leisure. This is of particular concern to occupational therapy practitioners. More must be done to reduce the human causes of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40102427, year = {2025}, author = {Li, G and Törnqvist, TE and Dangendorf, S}, title = {Author Correction: Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {2661}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-025-57833-3}, pmid = {40102427}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid40102021, year = {2025}, author = {Colozza, D and Guo, I and Sukotjo, SW and Padmita, AC and Galera, RG and Sulastri, E and Wikanestri, I and Ndiaye, M}, title = {The impact of climate change on child nutrition in Indonesia: a conceptual framework and scoping review of the available evidence.}, journal = {BMJ paediatrics open}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjpo-2024-002980}, pmid = {40102021}, issn = {2399-9772}, mesh = {Humans ; Indonesia ; *Climate Change ; *Child Nutrition Disorders/epidemiology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Nutritional Status ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to significantly impact child nutrition, worsening global health inequities. Indonesia, a country highly vulnerable to climate change, also faces substantial child malnutrition challenges. However, comprehensive knowledge on climate change's impacts on child nutrition in Indonesia is limited. This study addresses this gap through a scoping review of the scientific evidence on the effects of climate change on child nutrition in Indonesia.<br><br>METHODS: We developed a conceptual framework based on global literature to guide our systematic search, linking climate change to child nutrition and its determinants in Indonesia. Systematic searches were conducted in English and Indonesian on Scopus, Web of Science and PubMed, supplemented by Google Scholar and citation screening. We included peer-reviewed, Scopus-indexed studies focused on Indonesia, examining either direct or indirect impacts of climate change on child nutrition. A narrative synthesis was performed, structured around outcomes identified in our framework: (1) nutrition-associated conditions, (2) diets and disease, (3) social dynamics and (4) food system shocks.<br><br>RESULTS: From 3025 records, 134 studies met the inclusion criteria. Studies were either multicountry including Indonesia (23%, n=31), Indonesia-specific across multiple regions (26%, n=35) or region-specific, mainly focused on Java (22%, n=29), Sumatra (11%, n=14), Kalimantan (7%, n=9) and Sulawesi (7%, n=9). Other regions were under-represented (5%, n=7). Most studies used quantitative methods (87%, n=116). Few studies assessed direct links between climate change and nutritional outcomes (n=5), food security or dietary quality (n=7); more focused on indirect pathways such as disease (n=49), social dynamics (n=18) and food system disruptions (n=55).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Evidence suggests significant impacts of climate change on child nutrition in Indonesia, highlighting the need for urgent action. Further localised studies that consider contextual factors, and actions focused on strengthening health and nutrition systems, are critical, especially in regions most vulnerable to both climate change and child malnutrition.}, }
@article {pmid40101618, year = {2025}, author = {Harmon O'Driscoll, J and Healy, MG and Siggins, A and McGinley, J and O'Brien, E and Wang, J and Holloway, P and Mellander, PE and Morrison, L and Scannell, S and Ryan, PC}, title = {Quantifying the influence of climate change on pesticide risks in drinking water.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {972}, number = {}, pages = {179090}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179090}, pmid = {40101618}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change can influence pesticide contamination and resulting human health risks due by altering weather conditions that drive pesticide fate and transport. However limited research has examined these effects, leaving regulatory frameworks and adaptation strategies unable to address future pesticide risks. This study develops a novel probabilistic model to quantify climate change impacts on pesticide-related human health risks under two different climate scenarios, using study locations in the north-east and south-west of Ireland. Results indicate that pesticide concentrations in drinking water are projected to exceed legal limits more frequently, and by greater amounts, under all climate scenarios, with associated health risks increasing by an average of 18 % under RCP 4.5 (2050) and 38 % under RCP8.5 (2100). The model results also indicate significant regional variation in health risk, with risk 48 % higher in the south-west than the north-east under baseline conditions. Climate change effects intensify these regional variances with risk up to 70 % higher under RCP4.5 (2050), and 85 % higher under RCP8.5 (2100). Despite these increases, overall pesticide human health risks are likely to remain low in Ireland under future climates. This study presents a probabilistic framework that may be applied internationally to quantify the impact of climate change on human health risk at a local-scale and may be adapted for different site conditions and climate projections to suit users' needs. This approach can inform future pesticide management programmes by identifying vulnerable areas and key pesticides under changing climate conditions, emphasizing the importance of incorporating climate change into pesticide risk mitigation and public health strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40101495, year = {2025}, author = {Besarra, I and Opdyke, A and Mendoza, JE and Delmendo, PA and Santiago, J and Evangelista, DJ and Francisco A Lagmay, AM}, title = {The cost of flooding on housing under climate change in the Philippines: Examining projected damage at the local scale.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {380}, number = {}, pages = {124966}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124966}, pmid = {40101495}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {While the Philippines has made significant strides in proactive disaster risk reduction measures, current planning actions are undertaken primarily based on historical flood risk. There are gaps in understanding how the escalating impacts of climate change will alter flood dynamics. This study examines shifting local flood risk patterns in the Municipality of Carigara in Leyte. We quantify probabilistic flood damage on residential structures for early, mid-, and late-term flood scenarios under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways. By utilising localised housing vulnerability functions, we assess risk trends at a household level, considering concrete, light material, and elevated light material housing typologies. Our results indicate a 3 % decrease in future flood damages to residential structures under RCP 4.5 and a 34 % decrease in damages under RCP 8.5 by 2100 attributable to climate change for 100-year flood events. These shifts highlight the nuances of regional changes in flood damages over the next century. The findings provide insights into how localised climate-risk assessments for municipalities might be established as entry points to inform climate change policies and projects. Through established mechanisms such as Local Disaster Risk Reduction Management Funds (LDRRMF) in the Philippines, we propose methods of climate-informed decision-making for local government units to minimise damage for future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid40101489, year = {2025}, author = {Chen, W and Hu, S and Liu, Y}, title = {Synergistic policy effects of digitization in reducing air pollution and addressing climate change in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {380}, number = {}, pages = {124730}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124730}, pmid = {40101489}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Given the increasing constraints of climate change and air pollution on economic growth, constructing a comprehensive policy system that promotes the coordinated development of pollution reduction, carbon mitigation, and economic growth has become the key to resolving current contradictions. However, the synergistic effects of the policy combination between digitalization, pollution reduction and carbon mitigation remain insufficiently evaluated. Based on panel data from 239 Chinese cities spanning 2014 to 2024, this study employs a fixed effects model to comprehensively analyze the effects of atmospheric, climate, and digital policy combinations from multiple perspectives. The results indicate that the synergistic effects of policy combinations surpass those of single policies. In the case of single policies, they demonstrate synergy while effectively achieving policy goals. Regarding policy interactions, the interplay between two policies entails both complementary and substitution effects. When considering policy combinations, an appropriate number of policies can maximize the overall policy effect, while excessive combinations may trigger substitution effects between policies. From the perspective of policy actors, collaborative efforts among policy actors strengthen the synergistic effects of policies, though an increasing number of policy actors does not necessarily enhance the synergy. This study provides theoretical references for designing collaborative policy mechanisms and establishing a collaborative development policy network system.}, }
@article {pmid40101480, year = {2025}, author = {Li, H and Zhang, H and Feng, Z and Zhao, J and Chen, H and Guo, X and Wang, T and Liu, Y}, title = {Climate change influences on vegetation photosynthesis in the Northern Hemisphere.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {380}, number = {}, pages = {124976}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124976}, pmid = {40101480}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Changes in ecosystem productivity affect terrestrial carbon sequestration. In previous research on the effects of climate change, it has been determined that prolonged growing season length (LOS) increases vegetation productivity in ecosystems. In addition to the duration of vegetation growth, the intensity of photosynthesis is another factor influencing the annual accumulated vegetation productivity. Nevertheless, the impact of climate change on productivity through photosynthetic intensity of vegetation remains uncertain. Here, we utilized the photosynthetic phenology extracted from solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to investigate the influence of climate change on the annual peak value of vegetation photosynthesis (SIFmax), as well as the contribution of SIFmax to annual accumulated gross primary productivity (GPPann) in the Northern Hemisphere (>30° N). Furthermore, the influence of changes in LOS and SIFmax on GPPann were compared. The results showed that vegetation SIFmax increased in 73.0% of the areas, and that different climatic factors (radiation, precipitation and temperature), and the advanced start of the growing season (SOS) contributed to an increase in SIFmax. GPPann was more sensitive to the peak of photosynthesis than LOS, with SIFmax being the dominant factor affecting GPPann in 39.9% of the study area, compared to 13.7% of the area dominated by LOS. Our results demonstrated that climate change increases GPPann primarily by increasing SIFmax rather than by extending LOS. While temperature was the largest contributor to GPPann among all climate factors, precipitation and radiation can also have an obvious effect on GPPann through SIFmax. Our study highlights the important mediating role of peak photosynthesis in the influence of climatic factors on the annual accumulated productivity of vegetation. The results provide implications for understanding the characteristics of vegetation response to climate change, and for the development of ecosystem restoration and carbon management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40100629, year = {2025}, author = {Feng, K and Lin, N and Kopp, RE and Xian, S and Oppenheimer, M}, title = {Reinforcement learning-based adaptive strategies for climate change adaptation: An application for coastal flood risk management.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {12}, pages = {e2402826122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2402826122}, pmid = {40100629}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {2103754//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1652448//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 62088101//MOST | National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)/ ; 2021SHZDZX0100//Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project/ ; }, abstract = {Conventional computational models of climate adaptation frameworks inadequately consider decision-makers' capacity to learn, update, and improve decisions. Here, we investigate the potential of reinforcement learning (RL), a machine learning technique that efficaciously acquires knowledge from the environment and systematically optimizes dynamic decisions, in modeling and informing adaptive climate decision-making. We consider coastal flood risk mitigations for Manhattan, New York City, USA (NYC), illustrating the benefit of continuously incorporating observations of sea-level rise into systematic designs of adaptive strategies. We find that when designing adaptive seawalls to protect NYC, the RL-derived strategy significantly reduces the expected net cost by 6 to 36% under the moderate emissions scenario SSP2-4.5 (9 to 77% under the high emissions scenario SSP5-8.5), compared to conventional methods. When considering multiple adaptive policies, including accomodation and retreat as well as protection, the RL approach leads to a further 5% (15%) cost reduction, showing RL's flexibility in coordinatively addressing complex policy design problems. RL also outperforms conventional methods in controlling tail risk (i.e., low probability, high impact outcomes) and in avoiding losses induced by misinformation about the climate state (e.g., deep uncertainty), demonstrating the importance of systematic learning and updating in addressing extremes and uncertainties related to climate adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid40099534, year = {2025}, author = {Karapli-Petritsopoulou, A and Heckelmann, JJ and Becker, D and Anderson, NJ and Frisch, D}, title = {Altered Phenotypic Responses of Asexual Arctic Daphnia After 10 Years of Rapid Climate Change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {e70119}, pmid = {40099534}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {033W034A//Bundesministerium f&#xfc;r Bildung und Forschung/ ; 407495230//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; 423957469//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; 461099895//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Daphnia/physiology/genetics ; *Climate Change ; *Phenotype ; Arctic Regions ; Greenland ; Lakes ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Reproduction, Asexual ; }, abstract = {Understanding the fates of organisms and ecosystems under global change requires consideration of the organisms' rapid adaptation potential. In the Arctic, the recent temperature increase strongly impacts freshwater ecosystems which are important sentinels for climate change. However, a mechanistic understanding of the adaptive capacity of their key zooplankton grazers, among them polyploid, obligate parthenogenetic Daphnia, is lacking. Theory suggests low adaptation potential of asexual animals, yet examples exist of asexuals persisting through marked environmental changes. Here, we studied asexual Daphnia pulicaria from a meromictic lake in South-West Greenland. Its oxycline hosts purple sulfur bacteria (PSB), a potential food source for Daphnia. We tested two key phenotypic traits: (1) thermal tolerance as a response to rapid regional warming and (2) hypoxia tolerance tied to grazing of PSB in the hypoxic/anoxic transition zone. To assess Daphnia's adaptive capacity, we resurrected Daphnia from dormant eggs representing a historical subpopulation from 2011, sampled modern subpopulation representatives in 2022, and measured phenotypic variation of thermal (time to immobilization-Timm) and hypoxia tolerance (respiration rate and critical oxygen limit-Pcrit) in clonal lineages of both subpopulations. Whole genome sequencing of the tested clonal lineages identified three closely related genetic clusters, one with clones from both subpopulations and two unique to each subpopulation. We observed significantly lower Timm and a trend for higher Pcrit and respiration rates in the modern subpopulation, indicating a lower tolerance to both high temperature and hypoxia in comparison with the historical subpopulation. As these two traits share common physiological mechanisms, the observed phenotypic divergence might be driven by a relaxed selection pressure on hypoxia tolerance linked to variation in PSB abundance. Our results, while contrary to our expectation of higher thermal tolerance in the modern subpopulation, provide evidence for phenotypic change within a decade in this asexual Daphnia population.}, }
@article {pmid40098292, year = {2025}, author = {Tang, BL}, title = {Mitigating global climate change and its environmental impact is a key social responsibility of scientists and should be part of research ethics policies and guidelines.}, journal = {Accountability in research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-19}, doi = {10.1080/08989621.2025.2479494}, pmid = {40098292}, issn = {1545-5815}, abstract = {Scientists have both epistemic and social responsibilities. Doing good science and reproducible research work would be a scientist's epistemic responsibility, but what might constitute social responsibility is perhaps broader and more subjective. Here, I posit that mitigation of global climate change (CC) and its environmental impact would be a key contemporary social responsibility of scientists. In their research, diligence in reducing the contribution of their work to greenhouse gas emissions and CC would be morally normative. Furthermore, contributing to tackling CC and its detrimental effects would be befitting of scientists' technical expertise, and is thus an appropriate reciprocative return for the training and resources afforded to them by society (and the environment). Scientists being responsible for tackling CC and its effects can be adequately described by the terms of dimensions of responsibility alluded to by de Melo-Martin and Intemann. As such, there would be no convincing reasons to reject these as important notions that should be incorporated into research ethics guidelines and policies.}, }
@article {pmid40097521, year = {2025}, author = {He, Z and Gu, X and Wang, M and Xu, M}, title = {The coupled effect of climate change and LUCC on meteorological drought in a karst drainage basin, Southwest China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {9134}, pmid = {40097521}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {QKHJ-ZK[2023] Key028//Natural Science Foundation of Guizhou Province, China/ ; KT202237//Natural and scientific research fund of Guizhou Water Resources Department/ ; u1612441; 41471032//Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; QKH J [2010] No. 2026, QKH J [2013] No. 2208//Natural and scientific fund of Guizhou Science and Technology Agency/ ; 2015//2015 Doctor Scientific Research Startup Project of Guizhou Normal University/ ; }, abstract = {With global warming and the acceleration of the water cycle, the frequency and severity of droughts have progressively increased. Although Southwest China is located inland, the combined effects of global climate change, regional climate anomalies, and human activities have led to a diversified set of driving mechanisms for meteorological droughts. Based on monthly global and regional meteorological factors (10 global factors and 8 regional factors) and land use/land cover data from 1948 to 2023, this study employs classical correlation analysis, wavelet analysis, and Bayesian principles to explore the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of meteorological droughts in Southwest China, as well as their driving mechanisms. The results show that: (1) between 1948 and 2023, meteorological droughts in Southwest China exhibited a north-south (annual average, spring, and winter) or east-west decreasing trend (autumn) and alternating east-west intensity in summer. The drought frequency ranged from 0.35 to 0.39, generally showing a decreasing trend from southwest to northeast. (2) Global atmospheric circulation significantly influences meteorological droughts in Southwest China, especially during El Niño years, when global atmospheric circulation factors such as Nino 3.4 and SOI have a more prominent impact on drought, particularly in the summer and autumn. In contrast, during La Niña years, drought intensity and frequency are more pronounced in spring and autumn. Regional climate factors, particularly temperature and evapotranspiration, also have a significant effect on drought across different seasons, especially in winter and spring, when higher temperatures and evapotranspiration exacerbate droughts, and precipitation has a relatively weaker effect. (3) Land use changes significantly affect meteorological droughts in Southwest China, with a driving probability ranging from 0.39 to 0.42. Under different climate conditions, the driving probabilities of land use changes are ranked as follows: El Niño years (0.32-0.52) > Normal years (0.31-0.51) > La Niña years (0.27-0.50). In particular, land use changes such as the expansion of built-up areas and the reduction of farmland could intensify the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts in drought-prone areas. Additionally, the reduction of green spaces or forests may also exacerbate droughts, especially during the urbanization process. Notably, during El Niño years, the driving effect of various landforms on drought shows different skewed distributions. Therefore, this study clarifies, to some extent, the evolution and mechanisms of meteorological droughts in Southwest China and provides technical guidance and theoretical support for drought prevention and disaster relief efforts in the Karst region.}, }
@article {pmid40097480, year = {2025}, author = {Tanaya, T and Iwamura, S and Okada, W and Kuwae, T}, title = {Artificial structures can facilitate rapid coral recovery under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {9116}, pmid = {40097480}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; *Anthozoa/physiology ; *Coral Reefs ; *Ecosystem ; Coral Bleaching ; Seawater ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; }, abstract = {Rising seawater temperatures from climate change have caused coral bleaching, risking coral extinction by century's end. To save corals, reef restoration must occur alongside other climate-change mitigation. Here we show the effectiveness of habitat creation on artificial structures for rapid coral restoration in response to climate change. We use 29 years of field observations for coral distributions on breakwaters and surrounding reefs (around 33,000 measurements in total). Following bleaching in 1998, breakwaters had higher coral cover (mainly Acropora spp.) than did surrounding natural reefs. Coral recovery times on breakwaters matched the frequency of recent bleaching events (~ every 6 years) and were accelerated by surface processing of the artificial structures with grooves. Corals on breakwaters were more abundant in shallow waters, under high light, and on moderately sloped substrate. Coral abundance on breakwaters was increased by incorporating shallow areas and surface texture. Our results suggest that habitat creation on artificial structures can increase coral community resilience against climate change by increasing coral recovery potential.}, }
@article {pmid40097418, year = {2025}, author = {Guan, X and Huang, H and Ke, X and Cheng, X and Zhang, H and Chen, A and Qiu, G and Wu, H and Wei, C}, title = {Monitoring, modeling, and forecasting long-term changes in coastal seawater quality due to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {2616}, pmid = {40097418}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {No. U1901218//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; No. 42277379//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {As climate change affects the physicochemical properties of coastal water, the resulting element re-exposure may override the emission reductions achieved by human pollution control efforts. Here, we conduct an analysis the water quality-climate effect over eight consecutive years from 2015 to 2022 along the South China coast combined with CMIP6 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project. Then we utilized a data-driven model to predict the concentrations of trace metals and nutrients over the next 80 years. It is suggested that the acidification process carries the risk of triggering the ocean's buffering mechanisms. During this alkalinity replenishment process, trace metals, such as Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Pb, and Zn, in the sediment are released into the water phase, along with Ca[2+] and Mg[2+]. Here, the aim of this study is to show that the nexus of re-exposure-eutrophication-emission reduction with human activities and climate feedback, cannot be ignored in the pursuit of effective environmental governance.}, }
@article {pmid40096566, year = {2025}, author = {Mayer, DK and McCabe, M}, title = {Climate Change and Cancer Care.}, journal = {Clinical journal of oncology nursing}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {110-111}, doi = {10.1188/25.CJON.110-111}, pmid = {40096566}, issn = {1538-067X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Neoplasms/therapy/nursing ; *Oncology Nursing ; }, abstract = {To commemorate ONS's 50th anniversary in 2025, throughout the year, we will be reprinting seminal editorials written by former editors of the Oncology Nursing Forum and the Clinical Journal of Oncology Nursing that have.}, }
@article {pmid40095155, year = {2025}, author = {Mohamed, AF and Mohamed, AS and Abdel-Khalek, AA and Badran, SR}, title = {Synergistic impact of temperature rises and ferric oxide nanoparticles on biochemical and oxidative stress biomarkers in Oreochromis niloticus: relevant environmental risk assessment under predicted global warming.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {4}, pages = {409}, pmid = {40095155}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; *Oxidative Stress ; *Cichlids/metabolism ; *Biomarkers/metabolism ; *Ferric Compounds/toxicity ; Risk Assessment ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity ; Temperature ; Magnetic Iron Oxide Nanoparticles/toxicity ; Environmental Monitoring ; Nanoparticles/toxicity ; }, abstract = {Global warming and contamination of freshwater environments with nanoparticles (NPs) pose a global threat to biodiversity. Numerous studies demonstrated the effects of increasing temperatures and NPs separately, but their combined impact on aquatic life remains poorly understood or unstudied, particularly under predicted rising temperatures resulting from global warming (+ 2 and + 4 °C). So, the present study aims to determine how the temperature rises affect the toxicological characteristics of ferric oxide nanoparticles (Fe2O3 NPs) on the prevalent freshwater fish, Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). Fish samples were randomly put into six glass aquaria groups: 0 mg/L Fe2O3 NPs and 25 mg/L Fe2O3 NPs groups at 30 °C, 32 °C, and 34 °C with duplicated aquaria per group for 4 days. Hydrodynamic size and zeta potential evaluations revealed that Fe2O3 NPs' aggregation in water decreases with high temperature. Additionally, increasing the temperature and exposure to Fe2O3 NPs led to a significant rise in total proteins, albumin, globulin, plasma aspartate aminotransferase (AST), plasma alanine aminotransferase (ALT), plasma alkaline phosphatase (ALP), creatinine, and uric acid. We also noticed alterations in the amounts of malondialdehyde (MDA), glutathione reduced (GSH), and catalase (CAT) in the fish's liver and gills. Finally, our findings indicated that Fe2O3 NPs' toxicity in fish escalated with increasing temperature, peaking at 34 °C due to particle property changes caused by temperature elevation. Therefore, it should not ignore the impact of the projected global increasing temperatures on NPs toxicity in freshwater habitats.}, }
@article {pmid40094769, year = {2025}, author = {Khwarahm, NR}, title = {MaxEnt-Based Distribution Modeling of the Invasive Species Phragmites australis Under Climate Change Conditions in Iraq.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {40094769}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Phragmites australis (common reed), a recently introduced invasive species in Iraq, has swiftly established itself as a vigorous perennial plant, significantly impacting the biodiversity and ecosystem functions of Iraqi ecoregions with alarming consequences. There is an insufficient understanding of both the current distribution and possible future trends under climate change scenarios. Consequently, this study seeks to model the current and future potential distribution of this invasive species in Iraq using machine learning techniques (i.e., MaxEnt) alongside geospatial tools integrated within a GIS framework. Land-cover features, such as herbaceous zones, wetlands, annual precipitation, and elevation, emerged as optimal conditioning factors for supporting the species' invasiveness and habitat through vegetation cover and moisture retention. These factors collectively contributed by nearly 85% to the distribution of P. australis in Iraq. In addition, the results indicate a net decline in high-suitability habitats for P. australis under both the SSP126 (moderate mitigation; 5.33% habitat loss) and SSP585 (high emissions; 6.74% habitat loss) scenarios, with losses concentrated in southern and northern Iraq. The model demonstrated robust reliability, achieving an AUC score of 0.9 ± 0.012, which reflects high predictive accuracy. The study area covers approximately 430,632.17 km[2], of which 64,065.66 km[2] (14.87% of the total region) was classified as the optimal habitat for P. australis. While climate projections indicate an overall decline (i.e., SSP126 (5.33% loss) and SSP585 (6.74% loss)) in suitable habitats for P. australis across Iraq, certain localized regions may experience increased habitat suitability, reflecting potential gains (i.e., SSP126 (3.58% gain) and SSP585 (1.82% gain)) in specific areas. Policymakers should focus on regions with emerging suitability risks for proactive monitoring and management. Additionally, areas already infested by the species require enhanced surveillance and containment measures to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic impacts.}, }
@article {pmid40094718, year = {2025}, author = {Zhu, X and Jiang, X and Chen, Y and Li, C and Ding, S and Zhang, X and Luo, L and Jia, Y and Zhao, G}, title = {Prediction of Potential Distribution and Response of Changium smyrnioides to Climate Change Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {40094718}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2024SF-GJHX-4//Key research and Development Program of Shaanxi/ ; }, abstract = {Changium smyrnioides, an endangered herb known for its medicinal roots, contains essential amino acids that are vital for human health but cannot be synthesized by the body. However, wild populations of this species have been steadily declining due to the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. In this study, we employed an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of C. smyrnioides under different climate scenarios and to evaluate its responses to climate change. Our findings demonstrated that the MaxEnt model achieved optimal performance with a regularization multiplier of 0.5 and a feature combination of linear and quadratic terms. Among the environmental variables, three emerged as the most critical factors shaping the species' potential distribution: elevation, precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and isothermality (bio2/bio7 × 100, bio3). Currently, the primary suitable habitats for C. smyrnioides are concentrated in Jiangsu Province, with an estimated 21,135 km[2] classified as highly suitable. The analysis further indicated that, in response to rising temperatures, C. smyrnioides is likely to shift its distribution northeastward across China. Notably, the results suggested that the total area of suitable habitats would increase over time under projected climate scenarios. Based on the predicted centroid migration of suitable habitats, Anhui Province was identified as a critical future conservation zone for C. smyrnioides. This region could serve as a vital refuge, ensuring the long-term survival of the species under changing climatic conditions. Overall, this study provides key insights into the ecological responses of C. smyrnioides to climate change, offering evidence-based guidance for the development of effective conservation strategies aimed at safeguarding this endangered herb.}, }
@article {pmid40094567, year = {2025}, author = {Luo, Y and Yang, J and Liu, L and Zhang, K}, title = {MaxEnt Modeling and Effects of Climate Change on Shifts in Habitat Suitability for Sorbus alnifolia in China.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {40094567}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {32471591//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; SJCX21_1614.//Postgraduate Research &amp; Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province/ ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change stands out as one of the primary forces expected to reshape Earth's ecosystems and global biodiversity in the coming decades. Sorbus alnifolia, which occurs in deciduous forests, is valued for its ornamental appeal and practical uses but is reported to be declining in the wild. Nevertheless, the distribution of this species' suitable range, along with the key ecological and environmental drivers that shape its habitat suitability, remains largely unknown. By analyzing 198 occurrence records and 54 environmental factors, we employed MaxEnt to project S. alnifolia's current and future habitat suitability. Our results showed that annual precipitation (37.4%), normalized difference vegetation index (30.0%), August water vapor pressure (20.8%), and temperature annual range (3.4%) were the most significant variables explaining S. alnifolia's environmental requirements. The suitable habitats were primarily scattered across eastern and central China. Under projected future climatic conditions, the total expanse of potential habitat is expected to increase. However, most of this expansion involves low-suitability habitats, whereas moderately and highly suitable habitats are likely to shrink, especially in southern and lower-altitude regions of China. Based on these findings, we propose several conservation strategies to support the long-term sustainability of S. alnifolia.}, }
@article {pmid40092619, year = {2025}, author = {Bhandari, D and Robinson, E and Pollock, W and Watterson, J and Su, TT and Lokmic-Tomkins, Z}, title = {Mapping multilevel adaptation response to protect maternal and child health from climate change impacts: A scoping review.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {111914}, pmid = {40092619}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change attributed increases in air pollution, rising temperatures, and extreme weather events are linked to a higher risk of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes, necessitating interventions to protect maternal and child health. This scoping review mapped multilevel adaptation strategies implemented to protect maternal and child health from climate change effects. Eighteen unique adaptation strategies we identified included educational interventions, risk communication, air purifiers, air cleaning strategies, nutrition supplementation, cash transfer, employment guarantee scheme, community health worker program, chemoprophylaxis, insecticide-treated nests, home and environmental remediation, and bioethanol cooking fuel. Our findings suggest that these adaptation strategies are generally nonspecific and fail to address the specialized needs and unique health risks faced by pregnant women and young children. Prioritizing the involvement of pregnant women, mothers of young children and local healthcare services in developing tailored adaptation interventions is crucial to support climate change adaptation, resilience, and reducing maternal and child health risks.}, }
@article {pmid40091659, year = {2025}, author = {Moslehi, S and Narimani, S and Soleimanpour, S}, title = {Challenges and Adaptive Measures for the Potential Next Pandemic Caused by Climate Change.}, journal = {Disaster medicine and public health preparedness}, volume = {19}, number = {}, pages = {e59}, doi = {10.1017/dmp.2025.56}, pmid = {40091659}, issn = {1938-744X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Pandemics ; Global Health ; Animals ; Public Health/methods/trends ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of emerging infectious diseases, with the potential to catalyze the next global pandemic. This paper explores the complex interplay between climate change and the emergence of novel pathogens, emphasizing the environmental, ecological, and socio-economic factors that contribute to disease transmission. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and habitat destruction are reshaping ecosystems, bringing humans into closer contact with zoonotic reservoirs and vectors. These changes amplify the risk of spillover events, as seen in recent outbreaks. The study identifies key challenges, including inadequate surveillance systems, limited global cooperation, and the disproportionate impact on vulnerable populations. Furthermore, it proposes adaptive measures such as enhanced early warning systems, integrated One Health approaches, and climate-resilient public health infrastructure. By addressing these challenges and implementing proactive strategies, the global community can mitigate the risk of a climate-driven pandemic and strengthen preparedness for future health crises. This paper underscores the urgent need for interdisciplinary collaboration and policy innovation to safeguard global health in the face of a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid40090514, year = {2025}, author = {Rony, F and Pittelli, MG and Contursi, C and Pacchetti, I and Calabrò, ER and Viganò, LV and Mathews, KS and Poli, G and Van Leuven, K and Martini, M}, title = {Impact on beclometasone dipropionate pharmacokinetics when switching to a low global warming potential propellant in a pressurised metered-dose inhaler.}, journal = {Pulmonary pharmacology &amp; therapeutics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {102356}, doi = {10.1016/j.pupt.2025.102356}, pmid = {40090514}, issn = {1522-9629}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Use of high global warming potential propellants (e.g., HFA-134a) for pressurised metered-dose inhalers (pMDIs) is being phased down. Beclometasone dipropionate (BDP) is approved for the treatment of asthma in several countries via an HFA-134a propellant pMDI. This is being reformulated using the low global warming potential propellant HFA-152a. Two studies compared BDP pharmacokinetics delivered via pMDI using HFA-152a vs HFA-134a.<br><br>METHODS: Both studies (N=71/study) were single-dose (four inhalations of BDP), randomised, double-blind, crossover (Study 1, four-way; Study 2, two-way), in healthy volunteers. In Study 1, subjects inhaled BDP via HFA-134a pMDI in two periods (200 &#x3bc;g/actuation in one period, 100 &#x3bc;g/actuation in the other) and HFA-152a pMDI in the other two (200 or 100 &#x3bc;g/actuation). In Study 2, subjects inhaled BDP 200 &#x3bc;g/actuation via HFA-134a or HFA-152a pMDI using a spacer device. pMDIs containing HFA-152a and HFA-134a were compared in terms of lung availability (BDP comparisons) and total systemic exposure (beclometasone-17-monopropionate comparisons [B17MP; active metabolite of BDP]), with bioequivalence concluded if the 90% confidence intervals (CIs) of the geometric mean ratios of maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) and area under the plasma concentration-time curve between time zero and the last quantifiable timepoint (AUC0-t) were between 80-125%.<br><br>RESULTS: BDP Cmax and AUC0-t were equivalent for the two BDP 200 &#x3bc;g formulations, without (Study 1) and with spacer (Study 2). BDP 100 &#x3bc;g AUC0-t met the bioequivalence criteria, but the Cmax lower 90% CI was marginally below the bioequivalence limit (79.46%). B17MP Cmax and AUC0-t were bioequivalent with both propellants in all three comparisons.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, bioequivalence was confirmed of HFA-152a and HFA-134a for BDP 200 &#x3bc;g/actuation, with and without a spacer. Although bioequivalence of the two formulations cannot be formally concluded for BDP 100 &#x3bc;g, the minimal difference suggests the two formulations can be considered therapeutically equivalent.}, }
@article {pmid40090145, year = {2025}, author = {Yang, W and Schmidt, C and Wu, S and Zhao, Z and Li, R and Wang, Z and Wang, H and Hua, P and Krebs, P and Zhang, J}, title = {Exacerbated anthropogenic water pollution under climate change and urbanization.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {280}, number = {}, pages = {123449}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2025.123449}, pmid = {40090145}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {Anthropogenic water pollution severely threatens human society worldwide, yet the water pollution induced by combined sewer overflow (CSO) remains unclear within climate change and urbanization. Hence, this study integrated the general circulation model (GCM) and shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections with water quality modeling, to analyze spatiotemporal patterns and future trends of CSO-induced water pollution under changing environments. Results demonstrated that the given area (Dresden, Germany) encountered significant CSO-induced pollution, with 14,860 kg (95 % confidence interval, CI: 9,040-15,630 kg) of particulate matter (SS), organic compounds (COD, TN, TP), and pharmaceuticals (Carbamazepine, Gabapentin, Ciprofloxacin, Sulfamethoxazole) being discharged annually. Climate change and urbanization exacerbated the severity of CSO-induced pollution, causing the discharged pollutants to reach a maximum annual load of 34,900 kg (CI: 21,400-44,100 kg), with up to 82.19 % of organic compounds and 75.28 % of pharmaceuticals being discharged by the top 25 % of extreme CSOs. GIS-based spatial analysis indicated the regional heterogeneities of CSO-induced pollution, the high-frequency CSOs were predominantly located in highly-impervious areas, while the high-load discharges mainly occurred in densely-populated areas. Scenario analysis revealed stronger temporal variabilities of CSO-induced pollution in the future, with the seasonal anomalies of discharged loads ranging from -86.18 % to 76.89 %. In addition, pharmaceutical pollution exhibited significant uncertainties under changing environments, and the CI of discharged load expanded by up to 131.71 %. The methods and findings herein yielded further insights into water quality management in response to changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid40089667, year = {2025}, author = {Kürklü, A and Pearson, S and Felek, T}, title = {Climate change impacts on tomato production in high-tech soilless greenhouses in Türki̇ye.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {339}, pmid = {40089667}, issn = {1471-2229}, mesh = {*Solanum lycopersicum/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Turkey ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Agriculture/methods ; Crop Production/methods ; }, abstract = {Climate change and its impact on agricultural production due to the occurrence of extreme weather events appear to be more imminent and severe than ever, presenting a global challenge that necessitates collective efforts to mitigate its effects.There have been many practical and modelling studies so far to estimate the extent of climate change and possible damages on agricultural production, suggesting that water availability may decrease by 50% and agricultural productivity between 10 and 30% in the coming years ahead. Though there have been many studies to estimate the possible level of damage by the climate change on the production of many agricultural crops, no study has been conducted on the greenhouse tomato production. Therefore, this study was conducted to discover the effects of extreme high temperatures during the 2022-2023 growing season on the high-tech Turkish tomato greenhouse industry through a survey. The results showed that all greenhouses lost yield, ranging from 6 to 53%, with an average of 12.5%. Survey data revealed that irrigation and fog system water consumption increased by 29.32% and 31.42%, respectively, while fertilizer and electricity consumption rose by 23.66% and 19%. Some 76.5% of the growers declared difficulty in climate control, 11.7% reported tomato cluster losses with no information on yield loss, 9% experienced yield losses despite no cluster losses, and 61.7% observed a decline in tomato quality, leading to reduced sales prices. Considering these findings, it is recommended that greenhouses must adopt advanced climate control technologies, expand fog system capacities, and integrate renewable energy sources to enhance resilience against climate-induced challenges. Additionally, improving water-use efficiency, optimizing cooling strategies, using new and climate-resistant varieties and adjusting cropping seasons could help mitigate yield losses due to extreme temperatures. The study results offer extremely valuable insights into greenhouse production for researchers, technology developers, and policymakers for the mitigation of climate change effects and the development of more sustainable production systems.}, }
@article {pmid40088636, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, J and Liu, X and Mu, X and Li, H and Li, B and Zhang, Y}, title = {Ensemble predictions of high trophic-level fish distribution and species association in response to climate change in the coastal waters of China.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {214}, number = {}, pages = {117800}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.117800}, pmid = {40088636}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {As climate change shifts marine ecosystems, understanding distribution changes of high trophic-level fish is critical for ecological and fisheries management. This study examined the distribution changes of five high trophic-level fish species in China's coastal waters from 1990 to 2023, using species distribution models (SDMs) combined in an ensemble modeling framework to predict future trends under RCP26 and RCP85 scenarios. The ensemble approach integrated multiple SDM algorithms to reduce uncertainty and improve predictive accuracy. The analysis incorporated ecological metrics like niche breadth, niche overlap, and species association indices to assess habitat suitability and interspecies interactions. The ensemble model performed well, particularly for monkfish (Lophius litulon) and whitespotted conger (Conger myriaster), both of which are demersal species. Key environmental factors influencing habitat distribution included bottom water temperature and depth. Under climate change scenarios, the spatial niche breadth of only the largehead hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus) was expected to increase, while the niche breadth of the other species was projected to decrease, especially under high emissions. Fish habitats were predicted to shrink under future climate scenarios, especially under high emissions, with significant losses projected by 2100, ranging from -47 % for the Slender lizardfish (Saurida elongata) to -24 % for the Monkfish, although habitat suitability was expected to improve in southern coastal areas and near the Korean Peninsula. This study emphasizes the profound effects of climate change on the distribution and ecological niches of high trophic-level fish, offering insights for future fisheries management and climate adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40087311, year = {2025}, author = {Kumar, A and Mohanasundari, T}, title = {Assessment of livelihood vulnerability to climate change among tribal communities in Chhindwara and Dhar district, Central India.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {8843}, pmid = {40087311}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; India ; Humans ; *Vulnerable Populations/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Rural Population ; Female ; Family Characteristics ; Male ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses significant challenges to marginalised communities, particularly in regions with highly vulnerable populations like rural and tribal communities. This study aims to assess the livelihood vulnerability of tribal households to climate change impacts in the Chhindwara and Dhar districts in Central India, identifying key determinants and geographical variations in vulnerability. Primary data collection involved a multistage sampling procedure where a household survey was conducted across both districts, yielding a sample size of 535 respondents. The climatic data was collected from the India Meteorological department from 1954 to 2023. This study employs a mixed method, including innovative trend analysis for shifts in climatic patterns, standardised precipitation index-1 (SPI-1) for evaluating wet and dry conditions, LVI-IPCC framework applied using survey data to assess vulnerability, and multiple linear regression (MLR) model to determine the determinants of vulnerability. The results indicate significant changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in both regions, indicating increased vulnerability among tribal communities. SPI-1 analysis highlights the shift in precipitation patterns, with implications for agriculture and water availability. The LVI-IPCC results reveal a moderate level of vulnerability among surveyed households, with Dhar exhibiting higher vulnerability than Chhindwara. Furthermore, LVI-IPCC results were validated using other vulnerability assessment approaches. The MLR analysis highlights the significant influence of key determinants, such as primary income source, extreme weather events, access to safe drinking water, and livelihood strategies, on vulnerability, emphasising the importance of addressing socioeconomic disparities and enhancing adaptive capacity. Integrating primary and secondary data enables an inclusive investigation of vulnerability determinants and geographical variations within the study area. It offers evidence-based policy recommendations for augmenting resilience and encouraging sustainable development among tribal communities facing climate change challenges.}, }
@article {pmid40086574, year = {2025}, author = {Anagha, KS and Kuttippurath, J}, title = {Surface ozone pollution-driven risks for the yield of major food crops under future climate change scenarios in India.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {121390}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.121390}, pmid = {40086574}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {This study provides a comprehensive assessment of surface ozone (SurfO3) evolution in India under the future shared socio-economic pathway scenarios (SSPs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-6 (CMIP6), and its implications for changes in relative yield loss (RYL) of wheat, rice and maize. Scenarios with insufficient efforts to reduce the emission of precursors (e.g. SSP3-7.0) lead to significant increases in RYL (∼20% for wheat and ∼7% for rice and maize) post-2050. Conversely, SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 help to minimise RYL by controlling emissions. Accumulated ozone above a threshold of 40 (AOT40) in the growth stages of crops may surpass safer limits (3 ppm.h) by six-fold in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) for rice and maize, and in Central India for wheat in the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Furthermore, climate penalty on SurfO3 is observed in rabi (winter, December-February) and post-kharif (post-monsoon, October-November) seasons, whereas kharif (summer, June-September) shows climate benefit in one model. Positive trends in climate penalties are observed in IGP during most seasons and in Central India during post-kharif and rabi. Wheat is most sensitive to emission pathways with high variability, while rice shows more stable projections. Maize exhibits a mix of resilience and growing uncertainty under high emission scenarios. Undoubtedly, comprehensive strategies are required for crop yield enhancement, including stringent air pollution regulations, widespread adoption of clean energy, land use management and advancements in low-emission agricultural practices. Safeguarding agriculture productivity requires coordinated efforts to manage air quality and climate, ensuring a transition away from pathways like SSP3-7.0 and toward more sustainable, low-emission futures. Furthermore, efforts to address SurfO3-induced crop yield losses in India are vital for informing strategies to ensure global food security.}, }
@article {pmid40085979, year = {2025}, author = {Sikdar, D and Shahir, A and Mandal, S}, title = {Evaluating the global sea snake diversity and distribution under climate change scenario.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {207}, number = {}, pages = {107055}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107055}, pmid = {40085979}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Anthropogenically accelerated climate change has wreaked havoc on marine ecosystems, particularly affecting marine reptiles such as sea snakes. These reptiles are highly sensitive to climate change induced coral reef degradation and environmental fluctuations, leading to habitat expansion and increased human-sea snake interactions. Despite this, till date no comprehensive investigation of global sea snake diversity and distribution has been conducted. In this study, we used MaxEnt Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) to assess effects of climate change on sea snake distribution from 1993 to 2024. This analysis integrates occurrence data sourced from exhaustive literature reviews and biogeographic databases with environmental predictors like seawater temperature, salinity, and chlorophyll a concentration. The study identifies 74 species across 11 genera and 3 families. Among 14 biogeographic habitats examined, the South Pacific and Indian Oceans exhibit highest species richness, while the Atlantic Ocean shows the lowest. Notably, species in the Bay of Bengal and Arafura Sea demonstrate significant taxonomic distinctness. Furthermore, our findings reveal a substantial expansion of sea snake habitats from equatorial to temperate regions, primarily driven by increase in seawater temperature. Optimal habitat suitability is associated with temperatures of approximately 30 °C, chlorophyll a concentration of around 0.3 mg m[-3], and salinity levels between 35 and 40 g L[-1]. These insights into sea snake diversity and distributional shifts induced by global climate change are critical for formulating evidence-based management strategies, including implementation of sustainable fishing practices, preservation of critical habitats, and establishment of rigorous bycatch mitigation protocols to ensure conservation of these ecologically significant marine reptiles.}, }
@article {pmid40084048, year = {2025}, author = {Meo, SA and Shafi, KM and Hussain, A}, title = {The psychological cost of climate change: anxiety among adolescents and young adults - a cross-sectional study.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychiatry}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1422338}, pmid = {40084048}, issn = {1664-0640}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Climate change is an undeniable reality that has never before been experienced at such a higher scale of social, physical, and mental levels. Its impact has been studied at environmental, health, economic and sustainable survival levels, but the toll that it takes on the mind, especially among the youth, needs further studies to highlight the impact. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the impact of climate change on anxiety among adolescents and young adults in the Global South.<br><br>METHODS: This questionnaire-based cross-sectional survey was conducted among students from all levels of education in the Global South. A total of 760 respondents including 202 from schools, 158 from colleges, and 400 from degree-awarding institutes and universities, (200 were undergraduates and 200 were graduates) voluntarily participated in the study. Based on their age and gender distribution, the average age was 18.56 years, 363 (47.7%) were males, and 397 (52.3%) were females. The Hogg Eco-Anxiety Scale (HEAS) was used to investigate the level of ecological anxiety among the youth in the Global South. The three categories of anxiety symptoms in terms of affective symptoms, behavioural symptoms, and personal impact were investigated.<br><br>RESULTS: The results revealed that the affective symptom shows a moderate positive and statistically significant relationship with age, higher the age higher the affective symptom of anxiety. The impact of income on affective symptoms, the respondents with a higher income have the highest mean (M=1.61), the higher the income the higher the affective symptoms of anxiety. To assess the difference in the anxiety symptoms based on the education level of respondents, the highest mean value was found among those with graduate (M=1.78), followed by college (M=.88), university (M=.83) and school (M=.82), which means that the highest affective symptoms are faced by graduate students.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results show a moderate positive and statistically significant relationship between age and income on anxiety symptoms, the higher the age and income higher the affective symptom of anxiety. The youth of the global south feel little anxiety due to climate change; this is detrimental and needs urgent remedial measures. To combat climate change requires a multi-pronged approach, with solutions ranging from personal responsibilities and actions to large-scale systemic changes to tackle this critical challenge.}, }
@article {pmid40083284, year = {2025}, author = {Banerjee, A and Verma, U and Lewis, MT and Parshad, RD}, title = {Two species competition with a "non-smooth" Allee mechanism: applications to soybean aphid population dynamics under climate change.}, journal = {Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {604-651}, doi = {10.3934/mbe.2025023}, pmid = {40083284}, issn = {1551-0018}, mesh = {*Aphids/physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Glycine max/parasitology ; *Population Dynamics ; Models, Biological ; Computer Simulation ; Competitive Behavior ; Introduced Species ; Ecosystem ; Floods ; }, abstract = {The soybean aphid (Aphis glycines) is an invasive insect pest that continues to cause large-scale damage to soybean crops in the North Central United States. Recent empirical evidence points to differential fitness in the pestiferous aphid biotypes under abiotic stresses such as flooding. As climate change predicts increased flooding in the North Central United States, mathematical models that incorporate such factors are required to better inform pest management strategies. Motivated by these empirical results, we considered the effect of non-smooth Allee type mechanisms, for the two species Lotka-Volterra competition model. We showed that this mechanism can alter classical competitive dynamics in both the ordinary differential equation (ODE) as well as the spatially explicit setting. In particular, an Allee effect present in the weaker competitor could lead to bi-stability dynamics, as well as competitive exclusion reversal. We discuss applications of our results to pest management strategies for soybean aphids in the context of a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid40082304, year = {2025}, author = {Shimwela, N and Katera, L}, title = {Strengthening Link between National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), Sector Policies and National Development Plans: Implications for Climate Change Governance.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40082304}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Climate change alignment across national climate change adaptation planning frameworks, sector policies and national development plans is a crucial component of climate change governance and supports synergy that contributes greater effectiveness and efficiency in addressing the impacts of climate change. However, studies that assess climate change coherence between national climate change adaptation planning frameworks and policy frameworks have been inadequate. This study intended to understand the extent of climate change coherence across national climate change adaptation planning frameworks, sector policies and national development plans in Tanzania. A mixed research design employing sequential methods was adopted. Both primary and secondary data was used. Primary data were collected through interviews with key policy experts from government ministries and climate change focal point authorities. Secondary data was collected through a content review of sector policies, national development plans and climate change adaptation planning documents. Purposive sampling was used to select key informants and policy documents. Qualitative content analysis was used to assess text data using a scoring matrix to generate descriptive information. The descriptive information was further standardised using percentages for each sector as well as the percentage score for the overall plans. The findings revealed a weak alignment between national development plans and national climate change response strategies that were attributed to weak alignment between sector policies. However, the study found a moderate extent of climate change consideration in national development plans. Consequently, the study recommended strategies to strengthen the alignment between national climate change response strategies, sector policies and national development plans.}, }
@article {pmid40081447, year = {2025}, author = {Omary, RA and DiLullo, J and Estrampes, C and Hess, CP and Pacitti, D and Grist, TM}, title = {Partnerships Between Radiology and Industry Are Essential to Address Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of the American College of Radiology : JACR}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacr.2025.02.049}, pmid = {40081447}, issn = {1558-349X}, abstract = {Radiology and industry partnerships are essential to scale environmentally sustainable practices that will protect the health of current and future generations.}, }
@article {pmid40081033, year = {2025}, author = {Mou, W and Jin, C and Hu, S and Zhou, L and Luo, M and Long, Y and Yang, Y}, title = {Human activities affect the future suitability of alien urban landscape species in China under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {380}, number = {}, pages = {124899}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124899}, pmid = {40081033}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Ecologists have paid considerable attention to the adaptation and distribution of urban landscape species in China amid rapid urbanization and climate change, given the essential role of urban species in human activities, urban planning, and sustainable development. However, existing studies primarily concentrate on the effects of climate change on the distribution of native species, creating a research gap regarding alien species. We compiled 5261 distribution data points for 538 alien woody landscape species (WLS) (non-native to China) from 179 cities with populations over one million in China and utilized the MaxEnt model to assess the future distribution and migration patterns of 27 most commonly introduced evergreen broad-leaved, evergreen coniferous, and deciduous broad-leaved species under present, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100 periods according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The results indicated that deciduous broad-leaved species were widely distributed in Southwest China, East China, Central China and North China regions, had a broad climate niche and greater adaptability to climate change, while the suitable area of evergreen species were expected to be lower than that of the present stage after 2100. The preserved suitable areas of evergreen species were mainly concentrated in the East China and Central China regions, and the lost suitable areas of evergreen coniferous species were in South China and southern East China regions. We also noted that human activities were the most important factor influencing the species distribution, not only in terms of the differences in suitable areas, but also the spatial diversity patterns. Our study revealed the future distribution patterns of three vegetation types and highlighted the importance of preventing the transformation of alien WLS into invasive species, which can provide valuable guidance for urban planning and development.}, }
@article {pmid40080487, year = {2025}, author = {Ziska, LH}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Plant Physiology and Human Health.}, journal = {Physiology (Bethesda, Md.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1152/physiol.00067.2024}, pmid = {40080487}, issn = {1548-9221}, abstract = {There is a fundamental need to consider plant physiology in relation to human health as it encompasses a number of often overlooked issues, from plant based medicines, to nutrition. The goal here is to provide a historical narrative of plant physiological and biological responses to rising CO2 and climate variability while addressing current controversies. Finally a "next steps" overview of current links between plants and human health, and crucial, unmet research needs.}, }
@article {pmid40079945, year = {2025}, author = {Montoro, J and Antolín-Amérigo, D and Izquierdo-Domínguez, A and Zapata, JJ and García-Gallardo, MV and González, R and Armentia, A and Rondón, C and Fernández, MM and Pedrero, SG and Valero, A}, title = {Climate Change-Associated Environmental Factors and Pollutants: Impact on Allergic Diseases, Epidemiology, Severity, and Health Care Burden.}, journal = {Journal of investigational allergology &amp; clinical immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {0}, doi = {10.18176/jiaci.1067}, pmid = {40079945}, issn = {1018-9068}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Allergic diseases affect up to 40% of adults worldwide, a percentage that is increasing with environmental changes related to global warming.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was performed to identify and evaluate current evidence of the effect of climate change-related environmental factors on the prevalence, incidence, and severity of allergic diseases in terms of the impact on patients with allergy. PECO criteria for 2 research questions were established and guided the literature searches of the PubMed and Cochrane databases (January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2021). Study outcomes were categorized and grouped to facilitate data synthesis. Outcomes were classified as significant (P<.05), nonsignificant (P>.05), or undetermined (P value not reported).<br><br>RESULTS: Assessment of the 2 questions enabled us to identify 609 publications. Of these, 96 were assessed for eligibility and 42 provided data. Environmental factors, including the presence of pollutants, influenced patients' conditions in terms of effects on allergy, exposure to allergen(s), and the immune system. The pollutants most frequently reported to have an impact were nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particles <2.5 &#x3bc;m in diameter. The allergic diseases most frequently reported to be affected by environmental factors were respiratory disease (asthma and rhinitis) and atopic dermatitis, with an impact on epidemiology and health care burden.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Environmental pollution increased the frequency and health care burden of allergic diseases. The effect of environmental pollution was predominantly caused by pollutants such as NO2 and particles <2.5 &#x3bc;m in diameter and was observed across allergic diseases, including respiratory disease (asthma and rhinitis) and atopic dermatitis.}, }
@article {pmid40079527, year = {2025}, author = {Rao, S and Gutzkow, KB and Hyllestad, S and Jore, S and Thomsen, C and Andersen, GD and Rautio, A and Abass, K and Berner, J and Brantsæter, AL and Dirven, H and Låg, M and Meltzer, HM and Aakra, &#xc5; and Øvrevik, J and Instanes, C}, title = {Climate change and health in the Arctic.}, journal = {Scandinavian journal of public health}, volume = {53}, number = {2}, pages = {207-214}, doi = {10.1177/14034948241296309}, pmid = {40079527}, issn = {1651-1905}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Arctic Regions ; Health Status ; }, abstract = {AIM: Adverse human-driven environmental change, including the climate, is having an increasing impact on the Arctic environment and its ecosystems. There has been immense interest in understanding the health risks related to climate change in the Arctic region. In this article, we review recent evidence related to climate change and its impacts on the health of the Arctic population.<br><br>METHODS: We summarize current evidence related to primary, secondary and tertiary health effects in the Arctic. We explore a broad range of effects on health including increased exposure to extreme weather, impacts from changes in water quality, air quality, contaminant exposure, food systems and patterns of infectious diseases. We also briefly discuss mental health effects in the Arctic. We conclude by examining further challenges and opportunities for research in this field and advocate the need for adaptation options in the Arctic.<br><br>RESULTS: We find that there is a large amount of literature that is focusing on the human health effects in the Arctic but there are still research gaps in terms of understanding these compared with those at lower latitudes. We point out the need for filling several of these knowledge gaps to project future health effects of climate change in the Arctic.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for integrated adaptation strategies in the Arctic that fully account for the health impacts and consider indigenous perspectives.}, }
@article {pmid40078926, year = {2025}, author = {Hurlstone, MJ and White, B and Newell, BR}, title = {Threshold uncertainty, early warning signals and the prevention of dangerous climate change.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {240425}, pmid = {40078926}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {The goal of the Paris Agreement is to keep global temperature rise well below 2°C. In this agreement-and its antecedents negotiated in Copenhagen and Cancun-the fear of crossing a dangerous climate threshold is supposed to serve as the catalyst for cooperation among countries. However, there are deep uncertainties about the location of the threshold for dangerous climate change, and recent evidence indicates this threshold uncertainty is a major impediment to collective action. Early warning signals of approaching climate thresholds are a potential remedy to this threshold uncertainty problem, and initial experimental evidence suggests such early detection systems may improve the prospects of cooperation. Here, we provide a direct experimental assessment of this early warning signal hypothesis. Using a catastrophe avoidance game, we show that large initial-and subsequently unreduced-threshold uncertainty undermines cooperation, consistent with earlier studies. An early warning signal that reduced uncertainty to within 10% (but not 30%) of the threshold value catalysed cooperation and reduced the probability of catastrophe occurring, albeit not reliably so. Our findings suggest early warning signals can trigger action to avoid a dangerous threshold, but additional mechanisms may be required to foster the cooperation needed to ensure the threshold is not breached.}, }
@article {pmid40078853, year = {2025}, author = {Aborode, AT and Otorkpa, OJ and Abdullateef, AO and Oluwaseun, OS and Adegoye, GA and Aondongu, NJ and Oyetunji, IO and Akingbola, A and Scott, GY and Kolawole, BO and Komakech, JJ}, title = {Impact of Climate Change-Induced Flooding Water Related Diseases and Malnutrition in Borno State, Nigeria: A Public Health Crisis.}, journal = {Environmental health insights}, volume = {19}, number = {}, pages = {11786302251321683}, pmid = {40078853}, issn = {1178-6302}, abstract = {Climate change-induced flooding has caused public health crises in Borno State, Nigeria, which influence the increase of waterborne diseases and malnutrition. Flooding disrupts water and sanitation systems, creating breeding grounds for waterborne diseases such as cholera, malaria, and diarrheal illnesses. The displacement of communities and destruction of agricultural infrastructure due to flooding further increase food insecurity, leading to malnutrition. This paper examines the interplay between flooding, waterborne diseases, and malnutrition in Borno State, highlighting the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies and strengthened healthcare systems to mitigate these public health challenges. Additionally, it highlights the double burden of conflict and climate change where ongoing conflicts impede efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Finally, this paper outlines the socio-economic impacts of flooding and proposes interventions to mitigate the effects of flooding.}, }
@article {pmid40078807, year = {2024}, author = {Fordham, DA}, title = {Identifying species traits that predict vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Cambridge prisms. Extinction}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {e21}, pmid = {40078807}, issn = {2755-0958}, abstract = {Accurately predicting the vulnerabilities of species to climate change requires a more detailed understanding of the functional and life-history traits that make some species more susceptible to declines and extinctions in shifting climates. This is because existing trait-based correlates of extinction risk from climate and environmental disturbances vary widely, often being idiosyncratic and context dependent. A powerful solution is to analyse the growing volume of biological data on changes in species ranges and abundances using process-explicit ecological models that run at fine temporal and spatial scales and across large geographical extents. These simulation-based approaches can unpack complex interactions between species' traits and climate and other threats. This enables species-responses to climatic change to be contextualised and integrated into future biodiversity projections and to be used to formulate and assess conservation policy goals. By providing a more complete understanding of the traits and contexts that regulate different responses of species to climate change, these process-driven approaches are likely to result in more certain predictions of the species that are most vulnerable to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40075907, year = {2025}, author = {Lin, T and Meegaskumbura, M}, title = {Fish MicroRNA Responses to Thermal Stress: Insights and Implications for Aquaculture and Conservation Amid Global Warming.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {40075907}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {In the context of global warming, heat tolerance is becoming a crucial physiological trait influencing fish species' distribution and survival. While our understanding of fish heat tolerance and stress has expanded from behavioral studies to transcriptomic analyses, knowledge at the transcriptomic level is still limited. Recently, the highly conserved microRNAs (miRNAs) have provided new insights into the molecular mechanisms of heat stress in fish. This review systematically examines current research across three main reference databases to elucidate the universal responses and mechanisms of fish miRNAs under heat stress. Our initial screening of 569 articles identified 13 target papers for comprehensive analysis. Among these, at least 214 differentially expressed miRNAs (DEMs) were found, with 15 DEMs appearing in at least two studies (12 were upregulated and 13 were downregulated). The 15 recurrent DEMs were analyzed using DIANA mirPath v.3 and the microT-CDS v5.0 database to identify potential target genes. The results suggest that multiple miRNAs target various genes, forming a complex network that regulates glucose and energy metabolism, maintains homeostasis, and modulates inflammation and immune responses. Significantly, miR-1, miR-122, let-7a, and miR-30b were consistently differentially expressed in multiple studies, indicating their potential relevance in heat stress responses. However, these miRNAs should not be considered definitive biomarkers without further validation. Future research should focus on experimentally confirming their regulatory roles through functional assays, conducting transcriptomic comparisons across different species, and performing target validation studies. These miRNAs, conserved across species, could be valuable for monitoring wild fish health, enhancing aquaculture breeding, and guiding conservation strategies. However, the specific regulatory mechanisms of these miRNAs need clarification to confirm their reliability as biomarkers for thermal stress.}, }
@article {pmid40074172, year = {2025}, author = {Burbank, AJ and Penrice, AJ and Rorie, AC and Oh, JW}, title = {Climate Change and Allergens: Current and Future Impacts.}, journal = {The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. In practice}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaip.2025.02.039}, pmid = {40074172}, issn = {2213-2201}, abstract = {Climate change will continue to impact allergic diseases in direct and indirect ways. Rising global temperatures are contributing to increased duration of pollen seasons, altered aeroallergen production and potency of allergens, and changes in the geographic distribution of allergenic plants that drive increased human exposure to aeroallergens and increased allergic disease morbidity. Climate change is inextricably linked with air pollution, the latter of which was shown to act as an adjuvant for allergic inflammatory processes promoting allergic sensitization. Pollutant exposure is also linked with higher prevalence of childhood asthma and exacerbation of existing asthma and allergic disease. Increased exposure, or co-exposure, to aeroallergens and air pollution as a result of climate change will result in higher rates of sensitization and incident allergic disease remains uncertain. Vulnerable populations, including children, the elderly, and marginalized groups, are likely to be disproportionately affected. This review summarizes the current knowledge of the effects of climate change on aeroallergens, and by extension, allergic disease. Addressing these health challenges requires a comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate change, allergens, pollution and public health, alongside proactive measures to mitigate these effects.}, }
@article {pmid40073480, year = {2025}, author = {Nong, X and Tang, R and Chen, L and Wei, J}, title = {Contribution identification of climate change and hydro-project operation for dammed-river water level responses: A sixty-year observation study of Hanjiang River.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {380}, number = {}, pages = {124712}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124712}, pmid = {40073480}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Understanding the patterns of hydrological responses and identifying the driving factors under the combined influences of hydro-engineering and climate change is crucial for optimizing the utilization of surface water resources. This study focuses on the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River (MLHR), using long-term monthly monitoring hydro-climatic data (1964-2022) from 10 national hydrometeorological stations. Integrated statistical approaches, including the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), Worsley Likelihood Ratio Test (WLRT), and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, were applied to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of water levels and the quantitative contributions of various factors in the MLHR. The results demonstrate that, since the 1960s, significant downward trends in water levels have been observed at most of monitoring stations in the MLHR, and mutation points occurring at all stations except only one station. Fluctuations in water levels due to climatic factors such as precipitation and temperature are short-term and show relatively low correlations. The average water levels increased with mutation points emerging midstream of the Hanjiang River, primarily due to the influence of reservoir operations, while the water level at the lower reaches of the Hanjiang River exhibited a sustained decrease under similar influences. This study verified that water level variation in the MLHR is primarily attributed to hydro-engineering operations rather than climatic factors. By comprehensively evaluating the long-term trends in water level changes and quantitatively assessing the combined contributions of the operation of cascade reservoirs and climate change, this research provides valuable scientific evidence and practical guidance for managing river water resources.}, }
@article {pmid40072246, year = {2025}, author = {Halpin, DMG and Balmes, J and Han, MK and Papi, A and Martinez, FJ and Montes de Oca, M and Ozoh, OB and Salvi, S and Sin, DD and Zheng, J and Agusti, A and Vogelmeier, C}, title = {Climate Change &amp; COPD: A GOLD Science Committee Review.}, journal = {American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1164/rccm.202410-2058PP}, pmid = {40072246}, issn = {1535-4970}, }
@article {pmid40071991, year = {2025}, author = {Anjum, G and Aziz, M}, title = {Climate change and gendered vulnerability: A systematic review of women's health.}, journal = {Women's health (London, England)}, volume = {21}, number = {}, pages = {17455057251323645}, pmid = {40071991}, issn = {1745-5065}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Women's Health ; Mental Health ; Vulnerable Populations ; Gender Role ; Developing Countries ; Sanitation ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is an urgent global threat, with women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) disproportionately facing adverse health outcomes. Gendered roles, combined with socioeconomic, cultural, and environmental factors, exacerbate women's vulnerabilities, increasing the burden of mental health issues, water insecurity, sanitation challenges, and caregiving responsibilities.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This review seeks to systematically examine the intersection between climate change and gendered health vulnerabilities, with a particular focus on women. It explores how climate change intensifies gender-specific risks and identifies pathways for integrating gender-responsive policies to mitigate both short- and long-term health impacts.<br><br>DESIGN: Following Arksey and O'Malley's methodological framework, this systematic review mapped key concepts and evidence from studies conducted between January 2011 and January 2024. The review focuses on identifying the multifaceted health impacts of climate change on women, particularly in LMICs and marginalized communities.<br><br>DATA SOURCES AND METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in Web of Science and Scopus databases using key terms and Medical Subject Headings related to climate change, women's health, gender inequality, mental health, water security, sanitation, and caregiving burdens. Studies were screened and selected based on relevance to the predefined criteria, with data extracted on study design, key findings, and limitations.<br><br>RESULTS: From 2163 citations screened, 61 studies were included in the final analysis. The review highlights that climate change disproportionately affects women, exacerbating pre-existing gender inequalities. Specific impacts include heightened mental health challenges, adverse maternal and newborn health outcomes, increased water insecurity, and an intensified caregiving burden. Women in LMICs are particularly vulnerable due to reduced access to resources, healthcare, and decision-making platforms, further limiting their adaptive capacities.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings underscore the critical need for gender-responsive climate policies that address both immediate health impacts and the broader socioeconomic and environmental determinants affecting women. Effective climate adaptation strategies must integrate gender perspectives, ensuring that women's specific vulnerabilities are accounted for in policy frameworks. This review advocates for the empowerment of women through increased access to resources and decision-making, thus enhancing their resilience and adaptive capacity in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40071778, year = {2025}, author = {Bulut, M and Karakas, E and Fernie, AR}, title = {Adjustments of plant primary metabolism in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/eraf116}, pmid = {40071778}, issn = {1460-2431}, abstract = {Plant metabolism is profoundly affected by various abiotic stresses. Consequently, plants must reconfigure their metabolic networks to sustain homeostasis while synthesizing compounds that mitigate stress. This aspect, with the current intensified climate impact results in more frequent abiotic stresses on a global scale. Advances in metabolomics and systems biology in the last decades have enabled both a comprehensive overview and a detailed analysis of key components involved in the plant metabolic response to abiotic stresses. This review addresses metabolic responses to altered atmospheric CO2 and O3, water deficit, temperature extremes, light intensity fluctuations including the importance of UV-B, ionic imbalance, and oxidative stress predicted to be caused by climate change, long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. It also assesses both the commonalities and specificities of metabolic responses to diverse abiotic stresses, drawing on data from the literature. Classical stress-related metabolites such as proline, and polyamines are revisited, with an emphasis on the critical role of branched-chain amino acid metabolism under stress conditions. Finally, where possible, mechanistic insights into the regulation of metabolic processes and further outlook on combinatory stresses are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid40071152, year = {2025}, author = {}, title = {Correction to "The Influence of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Ageratum conyzoides in China".}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {e70895}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.70895}, pmid = {40071152}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11513.].}, }
@article {pmid40070355, year = {2025}, author = {Atalay-Şahar, E and Yildiz-Ozturk, E and Özgür, S and Aral, A and Dayanc, E and Goksel, T and Meuwissen, R and Yesil-Celiktas, O and Goksel, O}, title = {Novel Approach Methodologies in Modeling Complex Bioaerosol Exposure in Asthma and Allergic Rhinitis Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Expert reviews in molecular medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-29}, doi = {10.1017/erm.2025.7}, pmid = {40070355}, issn = {1462-3994}, }
@article {pmid40070155, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, H and Hu, Z and Chen, X and Li, J and Zhang, Q and Zheng, X}, title = {Global Greening Major Contributed by Climate Change With More Than Two Times Rate Against the History Period During the 21th Century.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {e70126}, pmid = {40070155}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Algorithms ; Models, Theoretical ; Plant Leaves ; Climate Models ; Plant Development ; }, abstract = {Future variations of global vegetation are of paramount importance for the socio-ecological systems. However, up to now, it is still difficult to develop an approach to project the global vegetation considering the spatial heterogeneities from vegetation, climate factors, and models. Therefore, this study first proposes a novel model framework named GGMAOC (grid-by-grid; multi-algorithms; optimal combination) to construct an optimal model using six algorithms (i.e., LR: linear regression; SVR: support vector regression; RF: random forest; CNN: convolutional neural network; and LSTM: long short-term memory; transformer) based on five climatic factors (i.e., Tmp: temperature; Pre: precipitation; ET: evapotranspiration, SM: soil moisture, and CO2). The optimal model is employed to project the future changes in leaf area index (LAI) for the global and four sub-regions: the high-latitude northern hemisphere (NH), the mid-latitude NH, the tropics, and the mid-latitude southern hemisphere. Our results indicate that global LAI will continue to increase, with the greening rate expanding to 2.25 times in high-latitude NH by 2100 against the 1982-2014 period. Moreover, RF shows strong applicability in the global and NH models. In this study, we introduce an innovative model GGMAOC, which provides a new optimal model scheme for environmental and geoscientific research.}, }
@article {pmid40069415, year = {2025}, author = {Fernandes, S and Ranjan, P}, title = {COP30 must deliver binding mechanisms to address climate change, not empty promises.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {639}, number = {8054}, pages = {306}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-025-00714-y}, pmid = {40069415}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid40069196, year = {2025}, author = {Khurshid, N and Gohar, AM}, title = {Integrated analysis of local agricultural practices, community-led interventions, and climate change impacts on food insecurity in rural Azad Kashmir.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {8375}, pmid = {40069196}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Rural Population ; Female ; Male ; *Food Insecurity ; *Agriculture ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; Adult ; Family Characteristics ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Middle Aged ; Food Supply ; }, abstract = {Food insecurity impacts 2.3 billion individuals worldwide, with the Asia-Pacific region representing more than 50% of the global undernourished population. In Pakistan, approximately 37% of the population experiences food insecurity, with rural Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) exhibiting concerning rates of stunting, wasting, and overweight individuals. This research examines the correlation between food insecurity, household factors, agricultural practices, and climate change in rural AJK. Data were collected from 470 respondents via a self-administered questionnaire utilizing convenience sampling, and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was applied for analysis. Household size, gender, income, education, and climate change influence food insecurity significantly. An increase of one person in household size is associated with a 0.499-unit rise in food insecurity, whereas a one-unit increase in income results in a 0.582-unit reduction. Females exhibit greater levels of food insecurity compared to males, while educational attainment is associated with a reduction in food insecurity. Furthermore, the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices mitigates food insecurity, whereas climate change intensifies it. The findings highlight the necessity for targeted interventions that address the specific challenges faced by rural AJK, particularly about climate-resilient agricultural practices and sustainable livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid40068323, year = {2025}, author = {Yang, S and Park, HS and Kwon, BO and Khim, JS and Lee, J and Sharesh, G and Thi Dang, NY and Kim, S}, title = {Assessing the contribution of Tidal Flats to climate change and carbon neutrality through modeling approaches.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {207}, number = {}, pages = {107067}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107067}, pmid = {40068323}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Tidal coastal ecosystems show promising potential as natural carbon sinks in mitigating climate change. Under the combined effect of carbon deposition, capturing, converting, and storing atmospheric CO2 into coastal sediments over a long period, tidal flats are of great significance to the ecology. In addition to preventing coastal erosion, the organic carbon buried in tidal flats should play an important role in mitigating climate change and achieving the carbon neutrality target. However, although the growing interest in tidal flat carbon has prompted studies to estimate carbon stocks at the global level in general and Korea in particular, comprehensive assessments of the role of carbon stocks in climate change have yet to be made. Therefore, the present study aims to quantify and simulate organic carbon stocks in tidal flats habitats of the Korean coast through a carbon balance model, thereby assessing their role in climate change and carbon neutrality. Biomass vegetation, meteorological, and sedimentary data up to 70 cm depth were sampled from 37 sites representing tidal flats along the Korean coast and then applied to the model to simulate the carbon sequestration rate as well as to provide predictions of sediment carbon stocks until 2050. The study revealed that the average total organic carbon (TOC) storage in vegetated and non-vegetated tidal flats reach 53.41 Mg C ha[-1] and 45.48 Mg C ha[-1] up to a depth of 70 cm in 2050, respectively, of which vegetation on the ground accounts for 3.06 ± 3.01 MgC.ha[-1]. Carbon mass is found to increase linearly over time in nearly all areas studied, with carbon sequestration rates ranging from 0.037 to 0.71 (MgC ha[- 1] yr[- 1]). The Korean tidal flats contain 11,200,000 MgC (∼4.13 × 10[7] tCO2 eq) of organic carbon (70 cm depth). This clearly reflects their potential for inclusion in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. Model simulation result indicated that the topsoil carbon mass of Tidal Flats in the year 2050 could contribute 7.64 × 10[6] tons CO2eq towards the "2050 carbon neutral strategy of the Republic of Korea". The findings of this study shall strengthen the knowledge base regarding Korea's Tidal flat carbon stocks as well as their potential role in mitigating climate change and contributing to future carbon neutrality goals.}, }
@article {pmid40067764, year = {2025}, author = {Richard-Greenblatt, M and Omosule, CL and Owusu Agyare, B and Das, S and Devine, C and Mokomane, M and Scott, S and Vongsouvath, M}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Laboratory Medicine: A Global Health Perspective.}, journal = {Clinical chemistry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/clinchem/hvaf012}, pmid = {40067764}, issn = {1530-8561}, }
@article {pmid40066101, year = {2025}, author = {Oyinlola, MA and Khorsandi, M and Penman, R and Earhart, ML and Arsenault, R and McAdam, S and Brauner, CJ and St-Hilaire, A}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change and a water management programme on white sturgeon physiology in the Nechako River, British Columbia.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {coaf014}, pmid = {40066101}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Climate change is impacting river ecosystems, underlining the need for water management strategies to protect native species within these ecosystems. Here, we evaluate the impact of climate change and water management on the physiology of white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in the Nechako River, British Columbia (Canada). Using the CEQUEAU hydrological-thermal model, we simulated daily water temperatures from 1980 to 2099 under two climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We assessed thermal exposure risk (Te) for different developmental stages of white sturgeon, focusing on the warmest 6-month period. Our findings show that embryos and yolk-sac larvae exhibit resilience, with Te values consistently <1 under both scenarios, signifying low thermal stress. In contrast, feeding larvae and juveniles experience elevated Te values, indicating significant future thermal stress. For feeding larvae, Te values exceeded 1 under both scenarios, reaching up to 1.5 by the mid-century (2050s) and up to 1.8 by the end of the century (2090s) under SSP5-8.5. Juvenile white sturgeon also faced increased thermal risks, with Te values rising >1 during July and August, reaching 1.4 and 1.8 by the 2050s and 1.8 and 2.0 by the 2090s under SSP5-8.5, compared to the 1980s. These results underscore the need to evaluate the existing water management programme to better accommodate the projected changes in thermal conditions associated with climate change. Additionally, regulated river discharge, which can both increase and decrease downstream temperatures, offers a strategic opportunity to mitigate some climate impacts through strategic dam discharge management.}, }
@article {pmid40064712, year = {2025}, author = {Favero, A and Baker, J and Sohngen, B and Daigneault, A and Wade, C and Ohrel, S and Ragnauth, S}, title = {Investing in U.S. forests to mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {4}, pmid = {40064712}, issn = {1750-0680}, support = {Contract #68HERH19D0030, Call Order #68HERH23F0146//U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)/ ; }, abstract = {In recent years several U.S. federal policies have been adopted to support forest-based climate mitigation actions. This study focuses on current federal funds allocated to forest for climate change mitigation activities to assess how much they could deliver in terms of net sequestration under a best-case (optimized) scenario where the cheapest abatement options are implemented first and if these funds are in line to achieve domestic targets for 2030 and 2050. Multiple investments pathways are tested under two different assumptions on CO2 fertilization to provide a range of future mitigation projections from forests. Results show that under annual investments in line with current federal funds (around $640 million), the expected net carbon flux of U.S. forests is around 745 MtCO2/yr in 2030 (+ 12% increase from baseline) and if the investments expand after 2030 the net flux is expected to be 786 MtCO2/yr in 2050 (+ 17% increase from baseline). When CO2 fertilization is accounted for, the projections of net forest carbon sequestration increase by 17% in 2030 and about 1 GtCO2 net sequestration achieved under federal funds in 2050, increasing the likelihood of meeting both short-term and long-term domestic targets.}, }
@article {pmid40063822, year = {2025}, author = {Yan, Y and Liu, Z and Chen, L and Chen, X and Lin, K and Zeng, Z and Lan, X and Huang, L and Wang, Y and Yao, L and Cheng, L and Ma, Z}, title = {Earth greening and climate change reshaping the patterns of terrestrial water sinks and sources.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {11}, pages = {e2410881122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2410881122}, pmid = {40063822}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {52179031//MOST | National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; China ; India ; Water Resources ; Water Supply ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Climate Models ; Earth, Planet ; Ecosystem ; Water ; Hydrology ; Conservation of Water Resources/methods ; }, abstract = {While vegetation brings positive benefits for climate mitigation and adaptation, the impact of ongoing global greening remains controversial due to its uncertain effects on hydrological cycle. Here, we quantitatively assess the impact of vegetation dynamics on global water availability by proposing a comprehensive framework to quantify the terrestrial water sink and source scores associated with vegetation dynamics. These scores serve as indicators of whether large alterations in water resources have occurred in the lands due to either the greening or degradation of surface vegetation. We use multisource datasets from climate model projections, remote sensing, and local measurements to examine the impact of vegetation dynamics on water availability over the periods of 1982 to 2019 and 2015 to 2100. During historical observation periods, regions such as India and northern China experienced large depletion of water resources as a result of vegetation greening, leading to water scarcity. In the future, a shift is projected for India and northern China, transforming them into regions capable of meeting water demands arising from vegetation greening. This transition is largely attributed to wetting and warming climates. It indicates that trade-off effects between climate and underlying vegetation dynamics may result in strengthening regional hydrological resilience and ensuring the stable status of local water resources. Furthermore, tropical rainforests (except for the Amazon Rainforest) are experiencing greening with minimal impact on local water resources consistently. These insights are valuable for globally identifying optimal locations to implement ecological restoration, facilitating the balance of sustainable water resources and vegetation greening.}, }
@article {pmid40063761, year = {2025}, author = {Khan, A and Berenji, M and Cloeren, M and Goldman, R and Wheat, S and Ogunseitan, O and Ayoub, S and Rabinowitz, P and Chekuri, B and Solomon, G}, title = {The Imperative to Incorporate Climate Change Competencies into Occupational and Environmental Medicine Training to Safeguard Worker Health.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000003354}, pmid = {40063761}, issn = {1536-5948}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Identify relevant gaps and suggest modifications to OEM Graduate Medical Education to increase knowledge about potential climate change impacts, teach practical skills, and promote relevant actions to protect workers.<br><br>METHODS: ACOEM competencies were aligned to the Global Consortium on Climate and Health Education (GCCHE) physician competencies. ACGME OEM milestones were re-examined using a milestone curricular guide based on the peer-reviewed GCCHE competencies.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate-change related OEM knowledge and skills are proposed for each OEM core competency domain. Nine residency milestones mapped to the ten ACOEM core competencies are highlighted by incorporating a climate-related activity along with a call to action.<br><br>CONCLUSION: OEM training already provides more climate-relevant content than other specialties. Nonetheless, OEM residents need more climate change education to help employers, workers, and their communities to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40063037, year = {2025}, author = {Hess, JJ and Ebi, KL}, title = {An Evidence-Based Approach to Climate Change and Health.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2024.27927}, pmid = {40063037}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid40062716, year = {2025}, author = {}, title = {Correction to: Chromosome-Level Genome Assembly and Annotation of Corallium rubrum: A Mediterranean Coral Threatened by Overharvesting and Climate Change.}, journal = {Genome biology and evolution}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/gbe/evaf036}, pmid = {40062716}, issn = {1759-6653}, }
@article {pmid40061836, year = {2025}, author = {Lustig, AR and Crimmins, AR and Snyder, MO and Tanner, L and van Coller, I}, title = {Bringing art and science together to address climate change.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {178}, number = {3}, pages = {47}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-025-03861-3}, pmid = {40061836}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Art x Climate was the first-ever gallery of visual art to be included in the National Climate Assessment. This letter outlines the purpose and process of Art x Climate and highlights three Art x Climate artists and their work. The letter concludes with lessons learned from this project: the need for cross-disciplinary respect among the arts and sciences, the wide range of themes and artworks centered around climate change, and the ability of art to facilitate new collaborations and bring more people into the climate change conversation.}, }
@article {pmid40061488, year = {2025}, author = {Etongo, D and Bristol, U and Cetoupe, D and Landry, J and Labrosse, JC}, title = {Integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Seychelles: Challenges and proposed strategies.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {1808}, pmid = {40061488}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Integrating disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) has gained traction among scientists and development practitioners, given their complementary benefits of reducing vulnerabilities and enhancing the resilience of ecosystems, livelihoods and protection of assets while concomitantly enabling the achievements of the Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai Framework on DRR. However, guidance on integrating climate and disaster risk is poorly understood because of insufficient scholarship. Although common concerns exist, the effective integration of DRR and CCA faces diverse challenges in various countries and contexts, and no study has addressed this topic in the Indian Ocean Region and Seychelles. To address this knowledge gap, a content analysis of relevant policies and strategies and in-depth interviews with 40 stakeholders were conducted to identify the challenges of integrating DRR and CCA alongside their proposed strategy for improvement. Barriers that impede the effective mainstreaming of DRR and CCA include issues about (1) governance and politics; (2) policy integration; (3) competing actors and institutions; (4) coordination and collaboration; (5) resources and funding mechanism; (6) scale mismatches; (7) implementation and mainstreaming; (8) community involvement; and (9) information, communication and knowledge sharing. This study reveals that structural coherence was weak on the strategic rather than conceptual levels, leading to poor institutional, operational and financial coordination. This led to incidental integration and collaboration happening on an ad hoc basis with the Disaster Risk Management Division positioned towards emergency preparedness and response. Proposed recommendations to enhance DRR and CCA integration are provided.<br><br>CONTRIBUTION: This study serves as a guide for Seychelles and other countries on how to effectively link DRR and CCA to minimise duplication of efforts and enhance the efficient use of human and financial resources while concomitantly achieving the objectives of DRR - to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience.}, }
@article {pmid40060720, year = {2025}, author = {Chen, Y and Chai, S and Chen, W and Xia, J}, title = {The Effects of Climate Change and Greening of Vegetation on Spatiotemporal Variation of Evapotranspiration in the Haihe River Basin, China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {e71092}, pmid = {40060720}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Highly accurate evapotranspiration (ET) estimation and understanding the impacts of climatic and land use change on ET are essential for water resources management in the Haihe River Basin (HRB). This study estimated spatial and temporal changes of ET and its drivers over the period 2000-2020, using the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model. Validation performed with the observations of 11 eddy covariance sites showed that the PT-JPL model can simulate ET with high accuracy (R [2] = 0.64, RMSE = 1.32 mm/day, NSE = 0.57). During the 21-year study period, the mean annual ET in HRB was 583 mm/year and showed an insignificant increasing trend (0.45 mm/year). Canopy transpiration (ETc, 2.96 mm/year) and interception evaporation (ETi, 0.74 mm/year) significantly increased whereas soil evaporation (ETs, -3.25 mm/year) significantly decreased. The mean annual net radiation (Rn), relative humidity (Rh), and wind speed (Ws) showed insignificant decreasing trends. In contrast, mean annual air temperature (Tm), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and precipitation showed insignificant increasing trends. The significantly increased leaf area index (LAI) demonstrated that vegetation in the HRB is greening. We explored the relationship between ET and its components to climate and vegetation parameters. The results showed that net radiation was the most important parameter for ET variations. Vegetation and temperature had large impacts on ETc. Vegetation greening in HRB dominates the increasing trend in ETc. Net radiation and relative humidity showed an important role in changes in ETs. Temperature and vegetation were key impact parameters for ETi. The increase in ETi is mainly located in the region of forests, which is due to the forest protection and afforestation projects in HRB. This study highlights the importance of isolating the contributions of vegetation and climate changes to the changes in ET and its components, which is useful for water resources management in HRB and other regions of the world.}, }
@article {pmid40060409, year = {2025}, author = {Caldwell, JM and Grenfell, B and Vecchi, G and Rosser, JI}, title = {Drought dynamics explain once in a century yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil with implications for climate change.}, journal = {bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1101/2025.02.25.640139}, pmid = {40060409}, issn = {2692-8205}, abstract = {While excess rainfall is associated with mosquito-borne disease because it supports mosquito breeding, drought may also counterintuitively increase disease transmission by altering mosquito and host behavior. This phenomenon is important to understand because climate change is projected to increase both extreme rainfall and drought. In this study, we investigated the extent to which seasonally-driven mosquito and primate behavior drove the first urban yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic in Brazil in a century, coinciding with an equally rare drought, and to assess the role of interventions in ending the outbreak. We hypothesized that drought triggered the outbreak by driving the forest mosquitoes and non-human primates towards the city in search of water and that the mosquitoes were biting more frequently to avoid desiccation. A dynamical YFV model supports these hypotheses, showing that increased mosquito biting can explain the second peak in transmission while primate movement determined the timing and magnitude of transmission. Further, a combination of vector control, vaccination, and conservation measures likely contributed to ending the outbreak. Together, these results suggest that drought-likely to become more frequent in this region in the coming decades-can significantly influence mosquito-borne disease transmission, and that sustained control will require multiple interventions.}, }
@article {pmid40059886, year = {2025}, author = {Sacristán-Bajo, S and Lara-Romero, C and García-Fernández, A and Prieto-Benítez, S and Morente-López, J and Rubio Teso, ML and Torres, E and Iriondo, JM}, title = {Assisted Gene Flow Management to Climate Change in the Annual Legume Lupinus angustifolius L.: From Phenotype to Genotype.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {e70087}, pmid = {40059886}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Climate change may hinder species' ability to evolutionarily adapt to environmental shifts. Assisted gene flow, introducing adaptive alleles into target populations, could be a viable solution for keystone species. Our study aimed to evaluate the benefits and limitations of assisted gene flow in enhancing the evolutionary potential of Lupinus angustifolius L. (Fabaceae), considering both phenotypic and genomic perspectives. We collected seeds from four populations in Spain at two latitudes (north and south), and grew them in a common garden. We used pollen from southern individuals to pollinate northern plants and create an F1 gene flow line that would advance its flowering onset. In the next season, we allowed F1 plants to self-pollinate creating an F2 self-pollination line. We also created a backcross line by pollinating control northern plants with pollen from F1 plants. We measured flowering onset, reproductive success, and other plant traits in all resulting lines. In parallel, we sequenced genes related to reproduction, growth, stress, nitrogen, and alkaloids. All gene flow-derived lines flowered significantly earlier than the control lines from the northern populations. F1 gene flow line plants produced heavier seeds and had a lower shoot growth than those from the northern control lines. Genomic analyses identified 36 outlier SNPs between the control and the F1 gene flow lines, associated with differences in flowering onset, seed weight, and shoot growth. These results underscore that assisted gene flow can enhance a population's evolutionary potential by altering specific traits. However, altering one trait may impact others in a way that depends on the intrinsic characteristics of each population.}, }
@article {pmid40059412, year = {2025}, author = {Eweida, RS and O'Connell, MA and Zoromba, M and Mahmoud, MF and Altheeb, MK and Selim, A and Atta, MHR}, title = {Video-Based Climate Change Program Boosts Eco-Cognizance, Emotional Response and Self-Efficacy in Rural Nursing Students: Randomised Controlled Trial.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jan.16790}, pmid = {40059412}, issn = {1365-2648}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Munich Security Conference 2024 highlighted the complex connections between climate change and global security risks. Engaging students in fighting climate change is a stepping stone to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.<br><br>AIM: To investigate the effect of a video-based climate change program on revitalising eco-cognizance, emotional response, and self-efficacy among nursing students in rural communities.<br><br>DESIGN: A randomised controlled trial research design was adopted.<br><br>METHOD: A total of 140 nursing students completed a survey related to the Climate Change Perceptions, the Climate Change Anxiety Scale, and the Environmental Self-Efficacy Scale. The study group engaged in the video-based climate change program, while the comparison group received flyers related to climate change across the globe.<br><br>RESULTS: The intervention group significantly improved climate change perception and environmental self-efficacy compared to the control group, with large effect sizes. On the other hand, significantly lower levels of cognitive impairment due to climate change anxiety were recorded among the intervention group compared to the control group.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our intervention improved nursing students' climate change literacy, pro-environmental attitudes, environmental self-efficacy, and anxiety. Future research may target a variety of university majors and use RCTs nested in a mixed-method design to capture the student experience with climate change before and after the RCT.<br><br>IMPACT: This study demonstrated that a comprehensive educational program significantly improved climate literacy, pro-environmental attitudes, and environmental self-efficacy among undergraduate nursing students while reducing climate anxiety. The findings of this study offer valuable insights for enhancing student nurses' ability to translate their scientific understanding into informed decision-making regarding issues like climate change.<br><br>Drastic natural disasters, including extreme temperatures, flooding, wildfires and snow and sandstorms, significantly affect populations, including nursing students. Early screening and management of climate change anxiety among university students is recommended as a buffer against upcoming mental health issues. Student counselling services are urged to consider the effect of climate change as a mental health parameter that significantly affects students' psychological and, consequently, academic life and progress. A video-based climate change program (VBCCP) is beneficial for equipping students with climate change literacy. The revitalization of the participant's overall eco-emotional response, pro-environmental behaviour and cognizance signalled the potential of VBCCP as a simulation teaching tool that might be integrated into nursing curriculums. Additionally, VBCCP is a cost-effective strategy that complies with International Nursing Association for Clinical Simulation and Learning (INACSL) requirements. The VBCCP can be delivered in the conventional classroom environment or through the digital platform without incurring additional costs and in alignment with the definition of simulation provided by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.<br><br>No public or patient contributions.<br><br>TRIAL REGISTRATION: RCT registration: NCT06223412, on 23rd January 2024.}, }
@article {pmid40058504, year = {2025}, author = {Momčilović, S and Jovanović, A and Gasser, RB}, title = {Human dirofilariasis - a potentially significant nematode zoonosis in an era of climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of infection}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {106460}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinf.2025.106460}, pmid = {40058504}, issn = {1532-2742}, abstract = {Dirofilariasis is a mosquito-borne zoonosis caused by several species of the genus Dirofilaria. This disease can manifest as nodular lesions in subcutaneous tissues, various structures of the eye, the lungs and/or visceral organs. The Dirofilaria species and the vectors responsible for transmitting infection differ among various geographical regions. The most competent reservoirs of infection are domestic and wild canids (for Dirofilaria repens and Dirofilaria immitis), raccoons (for Dirofilaria tenuis) and bears (for Dirofilaria ursi), and humans represent aberrant or accidental hosts. Recently, there has been an increasing number of reported clinical cases of dirofilariasis in both animals and humans. It is known that changes in climatic conditions, including increased temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, can contribute to favorable conditions for the development of mosquitoes and larval stages of filarial parasites within the vector. Despite advances in our knowledge of nematodes of the genus Dirofilaria and the pathological changes that they can induce in different hosts, many clinicians are unfamiliar with dirofilariasis. Thus, in clinical settings, nodules associated with dirofilariasis are often misdiagnosed as neoplastic lesions. Often, physicians surgically excise such nodules from affected patients, sometimes in very sensitive or difficult-to-reach anatomical locations, which may be accompanied by complications or serious consequences for the patients' health, including a stressful experience in the period from the discovery of a nodule to a definitive diagnosis.}, }
@article {pmid40057557, year = {2025}, author = {Duque, TS and Barroso, GM and Borges, CE and Mendes, DS and da Silva, RS and Evaristo, AB and Dos Santos, JB}, title = {Current and future development of Acrocomia aculeata focused on biofuel potential and climate change challenges.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {8120}, pmid = {40057557}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Biofuels ; *Climate Change ; Biomass ; Brazil ; Indonesia ; }, abstract = {The search for sustainable alternatives to petroleum has driven research on biofuels, with a focus on those derived from organic biomass. This study centres on macaúba (Acrocomia aculeata), a promising oilseed for biodiesel production. Advances in cultivation techniques and the mapping of climatically suitable areas are essential to consolidate the use of this species in the energy sector. This work aimed to utilise predictive modelling with the CLIMEX software to assess the current and future climatic suitability of macaúba in the context of climate change. Data on the global distribution of macaúba, growth and stress parameters, as well as climatic variables, were collected. The modelling was conducted based on the A2 SRES scenario for the present, 2050, 2080, and 2100, including the generation of the Weekly Growth Index. Results indicated high suitability in tropical regions, particularly in Brazil and Indonesia. However, future projections highlight significant challenges due to rising temperatures and reduced rainfall. The study provides a critical perspective to guide sustainable policies in the energy sector, underscoring the potential of macaúba as a viable biodiesel source while warning of the challenges posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40056786, year = {2025}, author = {Back, D and Han, K and Kim, J and Baek, H}, title = {Climate change perceptions and behaviors among Korean nurses: The role of organizational initiatives.}, journal = {Nursing outlook}, volume = {73}, number = {3}, pages = {102383}, doi = {10.1016/j.outlook.2025.102383}, pmid = {40056786}, issn = {1528-3968}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses significant risks to global health, requiring engagement from healthcare professionals, including nurses.<br><br>PURPOSE: To assess Korean nurses' climate change-related perceptions and behaviors, and examine their associations with organizational climate change initiatives.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional online survey was conducted from March to April 2024, involving 1,022 Korean nurses.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Korean nurses demonstrated moderate levels of climate change-related perceptions and behaviors. They were more motivated by global citizenship than professional accountability in addressing climate change. Nurses working in organizations with climate initiatives showed higher levels of climate change-related knowledge, motivation, efficacy, social norms, and behaviors than those in organizations without such initiatives.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Organizational climate initiatives play a crucial role in shaping nurses' engagement with climate change issues. Integrating climate change education into nursing curricula and implementing workplace initiatives are recommended to enhance nurses' professional engagement in addressing climate change-related health risks.}, }
@article {pmid40056263, year = {2025}, author = {Sahoo, S and Singha, C and Govind, A and Sharma, M}, title = {Leveraging ML to predict climate change impact on rice crop disease in Eastern India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {4}, pages = {366}, pmid = {40056263}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {India ; *Climate Change ; *Oryza ; *Machine Learning ; Plant Diseases/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Agriculture/methods ; Crops, Agricultural ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Rice crop disease is critical in precision agriculture due to various influencing components and unstable environments. The current study uses machine learning (ML) models to predict rice crop disease in Eastern India based on biophysical factors for current and future scenarios. The nine biophysical parameters are precipitation (Pr), maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), soil texture (ST), available water capacity (AWC), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), normalized difference chlorophyll index (NDCI), and normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) by Random forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Artificial Neural Net (ANN), and Support vector Machine (SVM). The multicollinearity test Boruta feature selection techniques that assessed interdependency and prioritized the factors impacting crop disease. However, climatic change scenarios were created using the most recent Climate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 datasets. The rice crop disease validation was accomplished using 1105 field-based farmer observation recordings. According to the current findings, Purba Bardhaman district experienced a 96.72% spread of rice brown spot disease due to weather conditions. In contrast, rice blast diseases are prevalent in the north-western region of Birbhum district, affecting 72.38% of rice plants due to high temperatures, water deficits, and low soil moisture. Rice tungro disease affects 63.45% of the rice plants in Bankura district due to nitrogen and zinc deficiencies. It was discovered that the link between NDMI and NDVI is robust and positive, with values ranging from 0.8 to 1. According to SHAP analysis, Pr, Tmin, and Tmax are the top three climatic variables impacting all types of disease cases. The study's findings could have a substantial impact on precision crop protection and meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.}, }
@article {pmid40054246, year = {2025}, author = {Rouhani, A and Ben-Salem, N and D'Oria, M and Silva, RCG and Viglione, A and Copty, NK and Rode, M and Barry, DA and Gómez-Hernández, JJ and Jomaa, S}, title = {Direct impact of climate change on groundwater levels in the Iberian Peninsula.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {970}, number = {}, pages = {179009}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179009}, pmid = {40054246}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Iberian Peninsula is a water-scarce region that is increasingly reliant on groundwater. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this situation due to projected irregular precipitation patterns and frequent droughts. Here, we utilised convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to assess the direct effect of climate change on groundwater levels, using monthly meteorological data and historical groundwater levels from 3829 wells. We considered temperature and antecedent cumulative precipitation over 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months to account for the recharge time lag between precipitation and groundwater level changes. Based on CNNs performance, 92 location-specific models were retained for further analysis, representing wells spatially distributed throughout the peninsula. The CNNs were used to assess the influence of climate change on future groundwater levels, considering an ensemble of eight combinations of general and regional climate models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Under RCP4.5, an average annual temperature increase of 1.7 °C and a 5.2 % decrease in annual precipitation will result in approximately 15 % of wells experiencing >1-m decline between the reference period [1986-2005] and the long-term period [2080-2100]. Under RCP8.5, with a 3.8 °C increase in temperature and a 20.2 % decrease in annual precipitation between the same time periods, 40 % of wells are expected to experience a water level drop of >1 m. Notably, for 72 % of the wells, temperature is the main driver, implying that evaporation has a greater impact on groundwater levels. Effective management strategies should be implemented to limit overexploitation of groundwater reserves and improve resilience to future climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid40053583, year = {2025}, author = {Westerhold, T and Dallanave, E and Penman, D and Schoene, B and Röhl, U and Gussone, N and Kuroda, J}, title = {Earth orbital rhythms links timing of Deccan trap volcanism phases and global climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {eadr8584}, pmid = {40053583}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {At the end of the Cretaceous, the massive Deccan trap (DT) volcanic eruptions are regarded as the primary driver of global climate deterioration. Accurate age models are key to unravel the sequence of events related to DT volcanism onset and effects on the global climate system. We establish a direct geochemical link between DT volcanism as recorded in marine osmium isotopic data and global climate change documented in benthic foraminifera carbon and oxygen isotope records. Based on our state-of-the-art astronomically calibrated age model, two major shifts in marine [187]Os/[188]Os at 66.49 and 66.28 million years ago are contemporaneous with major eruption phases of the DT and disruptions of the global carbon cycle. Geochemical records and modeling suggest larger erupted volumes with high volatile emissions for the early phase of DT volcanism and point to differing emissions of SO2 and CO2 during the observed marine osmium shifts with diverse effects on the global climate system.}, }
@article {pmid40050949, year = {2025}, author = {Lv, Z and Jiu, S and Wang, L and Xu, Y and Wang, J and Liu, X and Xu, J and Wang, Y and Haider, MS and Liu, R and Zhang, C}, title = {Climate change affects the suitability of Chinese cherry (Prunus pseudocerasus Lindl.) in China.}, journal = {Molecular horticulture}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {26}, pmid = {40050949}, issn = {2730-9401}, abstract = {The rapid development of Prunus pseudocerasus related industry has increasingly contributed to rural vitalization in China. This study employed a biomod2 ensemble model, utilizing environmental and species occurrence data from 151 P. pseudocerasus germplasm wild/local samples, to predict potential geographical distribution, suitability changes, climate dependence, and ecological niche dynamics. The optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model yielded the most accurate predictions. The climate variables with the greatest impact on suitability were precipitation of warmest quarter and mean diurnal temperature range. The total potential suitable area for P. pseudocerasus was approximately 2.78 × 10[6] km[2], increasing with CO2 concentration. The highly suitable area was primarily concentrated in basin terrains, plateaus, and plains of Sichuan Province. The current centroid in Lichuan exhibited gradual latitudinal and longitudinal movement. The predicted (2090s) ecological niche trends of P. pseudocerasus varied under different pathways and periods, with higher CO2 concentration associated with lower niche overlap. The CO2 emission concentration in the SSP246 scenario emerged as the most suitable climate model. Climate change is driving both the expansion of geographical distribution and the contraction of overlapping geographical distribution areas of P. pseudocerasus. These findings provide a theoretical basis for wild resource conservation, site selection for production, and introduction of allopatry for P. pseudocerasus.}, }
@article {pmid40050809, year = {2025}, author = {Mousavi, A and Ardalan, A and Takian, A and Naddafi, K and Mesdaghinia, A}, title = {A policy context and process analysis to implement the Paris Agreement on climate change in the health system of Iran.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {893}, pmid = {40050809}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Iran ; Humans ; *Policy Making ; *Health Policy ; *Qualitative Research ; Interviews as Topic ; Politics ; International Cooperation ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Ensuring public health is crucial in any policy debate on climate change. Paris Agreement on Climate Change is a global contract through which countries have committed themselves to a public health treaty. This study was conducted to identify the challenges that lie ahead for policymakers and provide an evidence-informed framework for policymaking to increase the resilience of Iran's health system to health consequences of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: A qualitative study using semi-structured interviews was conducted with 25 experts. Purposeful and snowball sampling techniques were used for data gathering. Thematic content analysis was conducted with a deductive-inductive approach. Leichter's model, the stage's heuristic framework, and Kingdon's models were used for analyzing the context and process analysis respectively. MAXQDA 20 software was used.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of four main themes and twelve sub-themes were identified concerning various contextual factors, including political, economic, international, and cultural/social challenges. The primary obstacles to implementing adaptation measures were found to be political considerations, economic sanctions, and the low-risk perception held by both the public and policymakers. Additionally, fifteen themes and forty-eight sub-themes related to the process were identified across several areas: agenda setting, which includes the problem stream, policy stream, and politics stream; policy formulation, encompassing governmental and managerial aspects, research, evidence-informed policymaking, and the role of Non-Governmental Organizations; policy implementation, which covers early warning systems, education, inter-sectoral coordination, architecture and engineering, and integrated databases; and policy evaluation, focusing on inadequate evaluation methods.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study identifies key challenges in implementing the Paris Agreement within Iran's health system, categorized into four main themes: political, economic, international, and cultural/social. Political issues stem from the politicization of climate change and national security concerns. Economically, reliance on oil and sanctions hinder progress, while high technology costs strain resources. Internationally, a lack of binding commitments and technological sanctions impede efforts. Culturally, low public awareness and inadequate inter-organizational collaboration limit engagement. The study emphasizes the need for cohesive policies, enhanced public education, and improved coordination among sectors to effectively address climate change impacts on health.}, }
@article {pmid40050665, year = {2025}, author = {Shmuel, A and Lazebnik, T and Glickman, O and Heifetz, E and Price, C}, title = {Global lightning-ignited wildfires prediction and climate change projections based on explainable machine learning models.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {7898}, pmid = {40050665}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Wildfires pose a significant natural disaster risk to populations and contribute to accelerated climate change. As wildfires are also affected by climate change, extreme wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent. Although they occur less frequently globally than those sparked by human activities, lightning-ignited wildfires play a substantial role in carbon emissions and account for the majority of burned areas in certain regions. While existing computational models, especially those based on machine learning, aim to predict lightning-ignited wildfires, they are typically tailored to specific regions with unique characteristics, limiting their global applicability. In this study, we present machine learning models designed to characterize and predict lightning-ignited wildfires on a global scale. Our approach involves classifying lightning-ignited versus anthropogenic wildfires, and estimating with high accuracy the probability of lightning to ignite a fire based on a wide spectrum of factors such as meteorological conditions and vegetation. Utilizing these models, we analyze seasonal and spatial trends in lightning-ignited wildfires shedding light on the impact of climate change on this phenomenon. We analyze the influence of various features on the models using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) frameworks. Our findings highlight significant global differences between anthropogenic and lightning-ignited wildfires. Moreover, we demonstrate that, even over a short time span of less than a decade, climate changes have steadily increased the global risk of lightning-ignited wildfires. This distinction underscores the imperative need for dedicated predictive models and fire weather indices tailored specifically to each type of wildfire.}, }
@article {pmid40050659, year = {2025}, author = {Varma, V and Mosedale, JR and Alvarez, JAG and Bebber, DP}, title = {Socio-economic factors constrain climate change adaptation in a tropical export crop.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40050659}, issn = {2662-1355}, support = {BB/N020847/1//RCUK | Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)/ ; 727624//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change will alter the geographical locations most suited for crop production, but adaptation to these new conditions may be constrained by edaphic and socio-economic factors. Here we investigate climate change adaptation constraints in banana, a major export crop of Latin America and the Caribbean. We derived optimal climatic, edaphic and socio-economic conditions from the distribution of intensive banana production across Latin America and the Caribbean, identified using remote sensing imagery. We found that intensive banana production is constrained to low-lying, warm aseasonal regions with slightly acidic soils, but is less constrained by precipitation, as irrigation facilitates production in drier regions. Production is limited to areas close to shipping ports and with high human population density. Rising temperatures, coupled with requirements for labour and export infrastructure, will result in a 60% reduction in the area suitable for export banana production, along with yield declines in most current banana producing areas.}, }
@article {pmid40050616, year = {2025}, author = {Kim, GY and Lee, WH}, title = {Prediction of the spatial distribution of vine weevil under climate change using multiple variable selection methods.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {7845}, pmid = {40050616}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Weevils/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Algorithms ; Animal Distribution ; Europe ; North America ; }, abstract = {The vine weevil (Otiorhynchus sulcatus) is a polyphagous pest that affects various economically important crops, but its potential distribution has not been studied. This research developed multiple species distribution models (SDMs) using different variable selection methods, including correlation, biological considerations, and principal component analysis, and integrated them into an ensemble model to predict the pest's distribution under climate change. The MaxEnt algorithm was used to develop the models, showing robust performance with raw bioclimatic variables (TSS 0.34-0.37, F1 score 0.60-0.67), while lower performance and different distribution patterns were observed with reconstructed variables (TSS 0.13, F1 score 0.48). The vine weevil was predicted to be primarily distributed in North America and Europe, with the highest invasion risk in Far East Asia and northern India. Climate change could shift its habitat northward, particularly in areas where it currently occurs, and human activities may help spread the pest to new regions. This study offers a potential distribution map to aid in monitoring and controlling the vine weevil, emphasizing the importance of variable selection methods in predictive modeling.}, }
@article {pmid40050395, year = {2025}, author = {Nardi, RU and Mazzini, PLF and Walter, RK}, title = {Climate change and variability drive increasing exposure of marine heatwaves across US estuaries.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {7831}, pmid = {40050395}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are among the greatest threats to marine ecosystems, and while substantial advances have been made in oceanic MHWs, little is known about estuarine MHWs. Utilizing a temperature dataset spanning over two decades and 54 stations distributed across 20 estuaries in the United States National Estuarine Research Reserve System, we present a comprehensive analysis of estuarine MHW characteristics and trends. Long-term climate-change-driven warming is driving more frequent MHWs along the East Coast, and if trends continue, this region will be in a MHW state for ~ 1/3 of the year by the end of the century. In contrast, the vast majority of the West Coast showed no trends, highlighting the potential for future thermal refugia. The West Coast was more strongly influenced by climate variability through the enhancement/suppression of MHWs during different phases of climate modes, suggesting long-term predictability potential. These results can provide guidance for management actions and planning in these critical environments.}, }
@article {pmid40050307, year = {2025}, author = {Jihan, MAT and Popy, S and Kayes, S and Rasul, G and Maowa, AS and Rahman, MM}, title = {Climate change scenario in Bangladesh: historical data analysis and future projection based on CMIP6 model.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {7856}, pmid = {40050307}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {During the last two decade, Bangladesh has been experienced a critical climatic anomalies which lead to an increment in enormity and repeat of diverse climate relate extraordinary events. Climate analysts substantiate that around the world temperature and precipitation plan is expected to change, which may result in significant influence on cultivation, work, and organic framework. Bangladesh is subsequently likely to confront critical challenges within the coming decades. In orchestrate to sufficient get it this complex, lively wonders, Analyzing chronicled Climate modify scenarios as well as anticipating its future designs may be a exceptional concern for examiner. This consider focuses to analyzes irrefutable climatic data from (1901-2020), and expect future temperature and precipitation plans in Bangladesh utilizing CMIP6 data. The data utilized in this think-around (Observed data is from CRU TS 4.05 and future data is from CMIP6) have been obtained from WorldClim v2.1. Distinctive techniques tallying relationship, relapse, standard deviation, relationship system, percentiles, cell bits of knowledge, and IDW presentation were performed to analyze the designs, changeability and spatial plans of temperature and precipitation. This think around revealed that Over the irrefutable consider period (1901-2020) Bangladesh has been experienced a vital warming drift with an normal increase in temperature 2 °C and with annually decay of the in general precipitation 607.26 mm adjacent to a move towards drier conditions in show disdain toward of frail relationship with more smoking a long time. Projected climate models talks to that Bangladesh slightest temperature is expected to expand from 1 °C to 4.4 °C as well as most extreme temperatures from 1 °C to 4.1 °C by 2100. In expansion, anticipated precipitation is expected to amplify by 480.38 mm, with the most prominent rises amid storm months. Regional assortments in temperature and precipitation are once more expected, with the Southeast (SE) likely experiencing the first vital warming and the Northeast (NE) seeing the preeminent critical increase in precipitation. In this study highlights the significant impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities in Bangladesh's southwestern coastal region, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies, local knowledge integration, and proactive national and global level policies to address and manage climate-related challenges.}, }
@article {pmid40048518, year = {2025}, author = {Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J and Díaz, S and Rifai, SW and Corral-Rivas, JJ and Nava-Miranda, MG and González-M, R and Hurtado-M, AB and Revilla, NS and Vilanova, E and Almeida, E and de Oliveira, EA and Alvarez-Davila, E and Alves, LF and de Andrade, ACS and Lola da Costa, AC and Vieira, SA and Aragão, L and Arets, E and Aymard C, GA and Baccaro, F and Bakker, YV and Baker, TR and Bánki, O and Baraloto, C and de Camargo, PB and Berenguer, E and Blanc, L and Bonal, D and Bongers, F and Bordin, KM and Brienen, R and Brown, F and Prestes, NCCS and Castilho, CV and Ribeiro, SC and de Souza, FC and Comiskey, JA and Valverde, FC and Müller, SC and da Costa Silva, R and do Vale, JD and de Andrade Kamimura, V and de Oliveira Perdiz, R and Del Aguila Pasquel, J and Derroire, G and Di Fiore, A and Disney, M and Farfan-Rios, W and Fauset, S and Feldpausch, TR and Ramos, RF and Llampazo, GF and Martins, VF and Fortunel, C and Cabrera, KG and Barroso, JG and Hérault, B and Herrera, R and Honorio Coronado, EN and Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, I and Pipoly, JJ and Zanini, KJ and Jiménez, E and Joly, CA and Kalamandeen, M and Klipel, J and Levesley, A and Oviedo, WL and Magnusson, WE and Dos Santos, RM and Marimon, BS and Marimon-Junior, BH and de Almeida Reis, SM and Melo Cruz, OA and Mendoza, AM and Morandi, P and Muscarella, R and Nascimento, H and Neill, DA and Menor, IO and Palacios, WA and Palacios-Ramos, S and Pallqui Camacho, NC and Pardo, G and Pennington, RT and de Oliveira Pereira, L and Pickavance, G and Picolotto, RC and Pitman, NCA and Prieto, A and Quesada, C and Ramírez-Angulo, H and Réjou-Méchain, M and Correa, ZR and Reyna Huaymacari, JM and Rodriguez, CR and Rivas-Torres, G and Roopsind, A and Rudas, A and Salgado Negret, B and van der Sande, MT and Santana, FD and Maës Santos, FA and Bergamin, RS and Silman, MR and Silva, C and Espejo, JS and Silveira, M and Souza, FC and Sullivan, MJP and Swamy, V and Talbot, J and Terborgh, JJ and van der Meer, PJ and van der Heijden, G and van Ulft, B and Martinez, RV and Vedovato, L and Vleminckx, J and Vos, VA and Wortel, V and Zuidema, PA and Zwerts, JA and Laurance, SGW and Laurance, WF and Chave, J and Dalling, JW and Barlow, J and Poorter, L and Enquist, BJ and Ter Steege, H and Phillips, OL and Galbraith, D and Malhi, Y}, title = {Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {387}, number = {6738}, pages = {eadl5414}, doi = {10.1126/science.adl5414}, pmid = {40048518}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Tropical Climate ; *Forests ; *Biodiversity ; Trees ; Americas ; }, abstract = {Understanding the capacity of forests to adapt to climate change is of pivotal importance for conservation science, yet this is still widely unknown. This knowledge gap is particularly acute in high-biodiversity tropical forests. Here, we examined how tropical forests of the Americas have shifted community trait composition in recent decades as a response to changes in climate. Based on historical trait-climate relationships, we found that, overall, the studied functional traits show shifts of less than 8% of what would be expected given the observed changes in climate. However, the recruit assemblage shows shifts of 21% relative to climate change expectation. The most diverse forests on Earth are changing in functional trait composition but at a rate that is fundamentally insufficient to track climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40044953, year = {2025}, author = {Kargbo, A and Dafka, S and Osman, AM and Koua, HK and Vieira, RFC and Rocklöv, J}, title = {Impact of climate change and variability on the occurrence and distribution of Trypanosoma vectors in The Gambia.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {124}, number = {3}, pages = {29}, pmid = {40044953}, issn = {1432-1955}, support = {002019//West African Service Centre of Climate Change and Adapted Land-Use Scholarship program funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research, WASCAL-Graduate Research Program in Climate Change/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Gambia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Humidity ; *Temperature ; Insect Vectors/parasitology/physiology/classification ; Trypanosoma/classification ; Tsetse Flies/parasitology/physiology ; }, abstract = {Extreme weather events can lead to infectious disease outbreaks, especially those spread by hematophagous flies, and The Gambia is particularly vulnerable to climate change. To the best of our knowledge, no one has ever documented the relationship between climate variability and change and the distribution of the hematophagous flies belonging to the families Glossinidae, Tabanidae, and Stomoxyinae. This paper aims to study the association of temperature and humidity on the distribution of the above species and their families in The Gambia in the recent past and to provide predictions of species abundance and occurrence in the future. A line transect survey was carried out in all the administrative regions of The Gambia to study the prevalence of the flies. Generalized additive models were used to analyze the relationships between the distribution of the insects and their families and the variability in climate conditions in the recent past and in three different future periods. Regarding the recent past, our results show that temperature has significantly impacted the presence of Glossinidae and Tabanidae species, with maximum temperature being the most important factor. Relative humidity was also statistically significantly associated with Tabanidae species. None of the climate variables was found to be associated with the Tabanus par and Tabanus sufis. Minimum temperature and relative humidity were statistically significantly associated with Glossina morsitan submorsitan, while maximum temperature was statistically significantly associated with Atylotus agrestis and Stomoxys calcitrans. Only relative humidity was statistically significantly associated with the Glossina palpalis gambiense. As for the future projections, the results show that rising temperatures impacted the distribution of Tabanus species, Glossina species, and Stomoxys calcitrans in The Gambia. The distribution of Trypanosoma vectors in The Gambia is mostly influenced by maximum temperature. The research's conclusions gave climate and public health policymakers crucial information to take into account.}, }
@article {pmid40044855, year = {2025}, author = {Pottier, P and Kearney, MR and Wu, NC and Gunderson, AR and Rej, JE and Rivera-Villanueva, AN and Pollo, P and Burke, S and Drobniak, SM and Nakagawa, S}, title = {Vulnerability of amphibians to global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40044855}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates, yet their resilience to rising temperatures remains poorly understood[1,2]. This is primarily because knowledge of thermal tolerance is taxonomically and geographically biased[3], compromising global climate vulnerability assessments. Here we used a phylogenetically informed data-imputation approach to predict the heat tolerance of 60% of amphibian species and assessed their vulnerability to daily temperature variations in thermal refugia. We found that 104 out of 5,203 species (2%) are currently exposed to overheating events in shaded terrestrial conditions. Despite accounting for heat-tolerance plasticity, a 4 °C global temperature increase would create a step change in impact severity, pushing 7.5% of species beyond their physiological limits. In the Southern Hemisphere, tropical species encounter disproportionally more overheating events, while non-tropical species are more susceptible in the Northern Hemisphere. These findings challenge evidence for a general latitudinal gradient in overheating risk[4-6] and underscore the importance of considering climatic variability in vulnerability assessments. We provide conservative estimates assuming access to cool shaded microenvironments. Thus, the impacts of global warming will probably exceed our projections. Our microclimate-explicit analyses demonstrate that vegetation and water bodies are critical in buffering amphibians during heat waves. Immediate action is needed to preserve and manage these microhabitat features.}, }
@article {pmid40043656, year = {2025}, author = {Marroquin, I and Oh, H and Ghosh, T and Hu, Z and Salehi, S and Nygaard, R}, title = {Dynamic life cycle assessment for evaluating the global warming potential of geothermal energy production using inactive oil and gas wells for district heating in Tuttle, Oklahoma.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {970}, number = {}, pages = {178932}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178932}, pmid = {40043656}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Repurposing abandoned oil and gas infrastructure for geothermal energy production has great potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study quantified the life cycle global warming potential of geothermal energy production using four inactive oil and gas wells repurposed for district heating in Tuttle, Oklahoma. A cradle-to-grave prospective life cycle assessment was performed to compare GHG emissions between the geothermal district heating system and conventional natural gas-fired heating system from 2020 to 2050. For initial implementation of the geothermal system, we investigated two approaches: 1) repurposing abandoned infrastructure from a nearby oil and gas well site, and 2) production and injection well drillings including new construction of a central heat exchange station. Environmental impacts from the geothermal system were estimated for five scenarios where a natural gas peaking boiler is incorporated to supply peak heat demand. The prospective results indicated that cumulative reduction in GHG emissions from transitioning to the geothermal district heating system increase over time as a function of future renewable resource penetration and technological advancements within electricity, fuel, and steel production. Over 30 years, the global warming potential associated with the district heating demand will have been reduced by up to 24 % with the repurposed system. These results imply that repurposing existing oil and gas infrastructure for geothermal energy systems of district heating will bring future climate benefits.}, }
@article {pmid40043580, year = {2025}, author = {Li, Y and Liu, Y and Yu, S and Xing, B and Xu, X and Yu, H and Wang, L and Wang, D and Liu, C and Yu, D}, title = {Vigilance against climate change-induced regime shifts for phosphorus restoration in shallow lake ecosystems.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {278}, number = {}, pages = {123397}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2025.123397}, pmid = {40043580}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {The dual pressure of anthropogenic activities and frequent extreme weather events has triggered a transition from macrophyte to algal dominance in shallow lakes. Phosphorus (P) is the key driver of regime shifts that can lead to a decline in the stability and resilience of lake ecosystems. However, the mechanisms underlying such regime shifts, and the effects of state transitions on internal P loading during macrophyte restoration in large shallow eutrophic lakes, remain to be fully elucidated. This study utilised long-term in situ monitoring data, across three distinct lake states (bare ground, macrophyte-dominated stage, and algae-dominated stage) to elucidate the accumulation and release mechanisms of sedimentary P during regime shifts. The findings demonstrated that the rehabilitation of submerged plants efficiently reduced internal P loading (water column P, sediment P fractions, and P flux), while the persistence of algal blooms was driven by the reductive release of Fe-P from sediments and the dissolution of Al-P from suspended particulate matter. High temperature, low dissolved oxygen, and high pH largely modulate the pathways and mechanisms of P supply during regime shifts. The combined pressures of extreme weather (heavy rainfall, strong winds, and extreme heat) and trophic cascades from fish stocking can trigger a shift from macrophytes to algae in shallow lakes. Appropriate management of the structure and biomass of aquatic animal communities (e.g., small-bodied or omnibenthivorous fish) and optimization of the food web structure can effectively improve water quality and maintain ecosystem stability. These findings enrich the theoretical understanding of regime-shift mechanisms from an ecosystem perspective and offer novel insights into P remediation in large shallow eutrophic lakes.}, }
@article {pmid40043133, year = {2025}, author = {Cai, Z and You, Q and Screen, JA and Chen, HW and Zhang, R and Zuo, Z and Chen, D and Cohen, J and Kang, S and Zhang, R}, title = {Lessened projections of Arctic warming and wetting after correcting for model errors in global warming and sea ice cover.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {eadr6413}, pmid = {40043133}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Credible projections of Arctic warming and wetting (AWW) are essential for informed decision-making in a changing climate. However, current AWW projections from state-of-the-art climate models carry uncertainties. Using observational datasets and CMIP6 model simulations, we demonstrate that the observed historical global warming trend and the climatological mean pattern of Arctic sea ice can serve as effective constraints on AWW projections. Under SSP2-4.5, the constrained warming by the end of the century is reduced from 5.5° to 4.6°C. Similarly, the projected wetting decreases from 6.8 to 5.7 millimeter per month. The inter-model spread in warming and wetting is reduced by 25 and 15%, respectively. The reduction is the largest in the Barents-Kara seas, reducing warming by 1.2°C, lessening wetting by 1.7 millimeter per month, and decreasing the inter-model spread by one-third. Our findings suggest that unconstrained CMIP6 projections overestimate future AWW, particularly in the Barents-Kara seas, due to an overestimation of historical global warming and excessive sea ice in the models.}, }
@article {pmid40042412, year = {2025}, author = {Hicks, LC and Leizeaga, A and Cruz Paredes, C and Brangarí, AC and Tájmel, D and Wondie, M and Sandén, H and Rousk, J}, title = {Simulated Climate Change Enhances Microbial Drought Resilience in Ethiopian Croplands but Not Forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {e70065}, pmid = {40042412}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2016-06327//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det/ ; 2020-03858//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det/ ; CTS 22:2131//Carl Tryggers Stiftelse f&#xf6;r Vetenskaplig Forskning/ ; 2022-00672//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; 2023-02438//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; KAW 2022.0175//Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse/ ; KAW 2023.0384//Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse/ ; }, mesh = {*Droughts ; Ethiopia ; *Climate Change ; *Soil Microbiology ; *Forests ; Soil/chemistry ; Fungi/physiology ; Bacteria ; Microbiota ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Climate change and land-use change represent a dual threat to terrestrial ecosystem functioning. In the tropics, forest conversion to agriculture is occurring alongside warming and more pronounced periods of drought. Rainfall after drought induces enormous dynamics in microbial growth (potential soil carbon storage) and respiration (determining carbon loss), affecting the ecosystem carbon budget. We investigated how legacies of drought and warming affected microbial functional (growth and respiration) and structural (16S and ITS amplicon) responses after drought. Rain shelters and open-top chambers (OTCs) were used to simulate drought and warming in tropical cropland and forest sites in Ethiopia. Rain shelters reduced soil moisture by up to 25 vol%, with a bigger effect in the forest, while OTCs increased soil temperature by up to 6°C in the cropland and also reduced soil moisture but had no clear effect in the forest. Soils from these field treatments were then exposed to a standardized drought cycle to test how microbial community traits had been shaped by the different climate legacies. Microbial growth started increasing immediately after rewetting in all soils, reflecting a resilient response and indicating that microbial communities perceived the perturbation as relatively mild. Fungi recovered faster than bacteria, and the recovery of fungal growth was generally accelerated in soils with a legacy of drought. Microbial community functions and structures were both more responsive in the cropland than in forest soils, and a legacy of drought particularly enhanced microbial growth and respiration responses in the cropland but not the forest. Microbial communities in cropland soils also used carbon with a higher efficiency after rewetting. Together, these results suggest contrasting feedbacks to climate change determined by land use, where croplands will be associated with mitigated losses of soil carbon by microorganisms in response to future cycles of drought, compared to forests where soil carbon reservoirs remain more sensitive.}, }
@article {pmid40041730, year = {2024}, author = {Sadeghi, MR and Ghannadi, P and Lotfi, A and Ashayeri, H}, title = {Climate change's impact on the nervous system: A review study.}, journal = {Health promotion perspectives}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {336-342}, pmid = {40041730}, issn = {2228-6497}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global warming is caused by increased carbon dioxide and other industrial gases, which shift the climate of human habitat and environment, impacting human health globally. In this review, we tried to overview the current knowledge of climate change's impact on neurological disease.<br><br>METHODS: A comprehensive search on PubMed, Web of Science (WOS), and Scopus was conducted to find the relevant original studies. Language, sex, age, date, or country of study were not restricted. Included studies report increased Alzheimer's disease mortality and hospital admission.<br><br>RESULTS: This increase was seen from the first day with high temperature to 3-4 days later. Parkinson's disease (PD) subjects were more vulnerable to high temperatures compared to dementia patients (RR for dementia: 1.29 and for PD: 1.41). Global warming was linked to the increase in the incidence of Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) (from 0.1% to 5.4%), Japanese encephalitis (OR: 2 when floods occur), and ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP) (RR: 1.62 for each 1 [&#x25e6;]C increase per month).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Health-related consequences of climate change are inevitable. The burden of medical problems related to the elderly population (especially the elderly with dementia), infectious diseases, and CFP on the healthcare system will naturally increase. Studying global warming trends could empower us with more precise predictions of the future and better planning to face climate change-related challenges.}, }
@article {pmid40041161, year = {2025}, author = {Romanovsky, AA}, title = {Global warming, Arctic exploration, and imprisonment of political opponents: Temperature is ubiquitous.}, journal = {Temperature (Austin, Tex.)}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, pmid = {40041161}, issn = {2332-8940}, }
@article {pmid40040447, year = {2025}, author = {Paintsil, E}, title = {Synchronicity of climate change and outbreaks of infectious diseases in children.}, journal = {Current opinion in pediatrics}, volume = {37}, number = {2}, pages = {113-115}, doi = {10.1097/MOP.0000000000001443}, pmid = {40040447}, issn = {1531-698X}, }
@article {pmid40039338, year = {2024}, author = {Cala, F and Tarchi, P and Frassineti, L and Gursesli, MC and Guazzini, A and Lanata, A}, title = {Expectancy Violation: Climate Change Associations May Reveal Underlying Brain-Evoked Responses of Implicit Attitudes.}, journal = {Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society. IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society. Annual International Conference}, volume = {2024}, number = {}, pages = {1-4}, doi = {10.1109/EMBC53108.2024.10781635}, pmid = {40039338}, issn = {2694-0604}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Evoked Potentials/physiology ; Male ; *Electroencephalography ; Female ; *Brain/physiology ; Adult ; *Attitude ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The development of programs and campaigns to promote climate change awareness and actions should account for implicit attitudes to make them effective. Alongside behavioural measures, it is important to investigate and understand the neural mechanisms underlying unconscious beliefs, and opinions and how external factors can influence them. Therefore, this study administered a Single-Category Implicit Association Test to 22 healthy volunteers while acquiring EEG signals. After an automatic preprocessing pipeline was applied, 1000ms-long epochs were extracted from cleaned EEG data for target words only. Latencies and amplitudes were computed in specific brain regions and time intervals for the P1, N1, P2 (both occipital and frontal), P3, and N4 (both frontal and frontocentral) event-related potentials (ERPs). Statistical analysis has highlighted that incongruent associations elicited significantly shorter N1 latencies, which may be due to stimuli familiarisation, longer P3 latencies, which can be related to the allocation of more attentional resources, and larger N4 amplitudes, which suggest greater cognitive efforts. Correlation analysis has also found a significant relationship between the amplitude of the N4 and explicit behaviour. These results suggest that ERPs can highlight different mental processes involved in violating social expectations towards climate change and that their features may be used to support behavioural measures in assessing implicit attitudes more reliably.}, }
@article {pmid40038529, year = {2025}, author = {Heikonen, S and Heino, M and Jalava, M and Siebert, S and Viviroli, D and Kummu, M}, title = {Climate change threatens crop diversity at low latitudes.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40038529}, issn = {2662-1355}, support = {339834//Academy of Finland (Suomen Akatemia)/ ; 339834//Academy of Finland (Suomen Akatemia)/ ; 339834//Academy of Finland (Suomen Akatemia)/ ; 339834//Academy of Finland (Suomen Akatemia)/ ; 819202//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council)/ ; 819202//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council)/ ; 819202//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council)/ ; 450058266//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation)/ ; 365512//Suomen Akatemia | Strategic Research Council (Strategisen Tutkimuksen Neuvosto)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change alters the climatic suitability of croplands, likely shifting the spatial distribution and diversity of global food crop production. Analyses of future potential food crop diversity have been limited to a small number of crops. Here we project geographical shifts in the climatic niches of 30 major food crops under 1.5-4 °C global warming and assess their impact on current crop production and potential food crop diversity across global croplands. We found that in low-latitude regions, 10-31% of current production would shift outside the climatic niche even under 2 °C global warming, increasing to 20-48% under 3 °C warming. Concurrently, potential food crop diversity would decline on 52% (+2 °C) and 56% (+3 °C) of global cropland. However, potential diversity would increase in mid to high latitudes, offering opportunities for climate change adaptation. These results highlight substantial latitudinal differences in the adaptation potential and vulnerability of the global food system under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid40038383, year = {2025}, author = {Kamel, BK and Abdelaziz, AY and Attia, MA and Khamees, AK}, title = {A novel approach to wind energy modeling in the context of climate change at Zaafrana region in Egypt.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {7548}, pmid = {40038383}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Global warming, driven by the excessive emission of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels, has emerged as a critical environmental challenge which is considered as a motivation for this research. Where, the switch to sustainable energy sources is crucial because of the pressing need to slow down climate change and lower carbon footprints. Of all the renewable energy sources, wind energy is particularly important as a means of reducing carbon emissions from the generation of electricity. With the increase in the penetration of renewable energy resources in electrical power systems, the stochastic behavior of the renewable energy resources has to be taken into account for better analysis in power systems. However, the stochastic behavior of the renewable energy is also affected by the environmental conditions. In this context, The main objective of this paper is to present a novel wind energy modeling that includes the effect of ambient temperature on the wind turbine capabilities. This effect is presented as the de-rating curve for wind turbine output power to respect the thermal capabilities of the electrical components of the wind turbine. That's why this novel model is developed to consider the effect of ambient temperature to represent the practical limitations of wind turbines which wasn't considered by previous literature although the temperature has a siginicant impact on the wind turbine output power. In this Paper, Gamesa G80 wind turbine is used to perform the numerical analysis of the proposed new model. Moreover, Exponential Distribution Optimizer (EDO), Aquila Optimizer (AO), and Equilibrium Optimizer (EO) algorithms are used to find various probability distribution functions (PDFs) parameters to model wind speed data from Zaafrana region in Egypt using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Coefficient of Correlation (R^2) as judging criteria. In addition, real temperature data from the same site are used to validate the proposed model compared to the manufacturer's capabilities. The results show that mixed PDFs provide a better representation for the wind speed data. Moreover, the study demonstrates that ambient temperature cannot be neglected in wind power modeling, as the wind turbine output power varies significantly. Additionally, this work highlights the impact of climate change on the efficiency of renewable energy sources like the wind energy. The proposed wind energy model could be valuable to system operators as a decision-making aid when dealing with and analyzing complex power systems.}, }
@article {pmid40037784, year = {2025}, author = {Abdel-Dayem, MS and Al Dhafer, HM and Soliman, AM and Al Ansi, AN and El-Sonbati, SA and Ishag, AAE and Mohamed, A and Soliman, M}, title = {Climate change and geographical distribution projections for major leaf beetles (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in Saudi Arabia.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toaf046}, pmid = {40037784}, issn = {1938-291X}, support = {2-17-01-001-0013//MAARIFAH/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a substantial impact on the quality and diversity of insect pests, which may have adverse ecological and economic effects. The family Chrysomelidae represents one of the most economically and ecologically important groups within Coleoptera, with species acting as agricultural pests and contributing substantially to biodiversity in arid regions. Based on bioclimatic, topographic, and vegetation data, the current and future distributions of 4 chrysomelids (Caryedon acaciae (Gyllenhal, 1833), Chaetocnema pulla Chapuis, 1879, Phyllotreta cheiranthi Weise, 1903, and Spermophagus sericeus (Geoffroy, 1785)) in Saudi Arabia were predicted using MaxEnt modeling for 2050 under 2 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP126 (low emission) and SSP585 (high emission) scenarios. The leaf beetle models showed strong performance, with average area under the curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.86 to 0.96 and average TSS values ranging from 0.52 to 0.65. Five predictors were chosen for each species from 21 environmental variables. The results show that the key ecological factors that influence species distributions varied, with vegetation being the most influential. According to habitat suitability maps, in the future, such distribution will be severely altered, mostly by climate change. More precisely, C. acaciae will face minor range shifts, while C. pulla, P. cheiranthi, and S. sericeus will expand their ranges substantially, especially in the Eastern Province. Our results confirm the importance of implementing adaptive pest-management strategies to address the potential range expansions of various agricultural pests, which could intensify local ecological challenges and pose a heightened threat to agricultural systems.}, }
@article {pmid40037476, year = {2025}, author = {Sripa, B and Yurlova, N and Suwannatrai, AT and Serbina, E and Tangkawattana, S and Sayasone, S and Varnakovida, P}, title = {Potential impact of climate change on Opisthorchis viverrini and Opisthorchis felineus transmission in Eurasia.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {263}, number = {}, pages = {107574}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2025.107574}, pmid = {40037476}, issn = {1873-6254}, abstract = {Human liver flukes of the family Opisthorchiidae, particularly Opisthorchis viverrini and Opisthorchis felineus, are major foodborne trematode parasites endemic to the Lower Mekong River Basin (Southeast Asia) and the Ob-Irtysh Basins (southern Western Siberia, Russian Federation), respectively. Together, these parasites infect over 14 million people, with an estimated 300 million at risk. Their transmission cycles involve Bithynia snails and Cyprinidae fish as first and second intermediate hosts, respectively, with humans and other fish-eating mammals serving as definitive hosts. The geographical distribution of these flukes is shaped by specific Bithynia species: B. siamensis, B. s. goniomphalos, and B. funiculata for O. viverrini, and B. troschelii, B. leachi, and B. inflata for O. felineus. Climate change directly influences liver fluke transmission by affecting parasite survival, host biology, and environmental conditions. Bithynia snails are highly temperature-sensitive, and O. viverrini transmission is notably temperature-dependent, with a 1 °C increase raising infection odds by 5.4 %. Temperatures exceeding 30 °C reduce cercarial survival and infectivity. In Western Siberia, favorable water temperatures for O. felineus transmission start at +15 °C, with higher temperatures leading to an increased infection rate in snails while permafrost regions lack Bithynia snails entirely. Projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that warming will exceed the global average in northern Asia (affecting O. felineus) and approach the global average in Southeast Asia (impacting O. viverrini). These trends suggest that climate change may have a more pronounced impact on O. felineus transmission in Siberia than on O. viverrini transmission in Southeast Asia. This review provides an in-depth discussion of Bithynia biology and the effects of temperature on snail growth, cercarial release, survival, infection, and aestivation, emphasizing how global warming could influence the transmission dynamics of these liver flukes.}, }
@article {pmid40037109, year = {2025}, author = {Feng, F and Du, F and Li, Q and Zhang, L and Yu, X and Liu, C}, title = {Understanding the ternary interaction of crop plants, fungal pathogens, and rhizobacteria in response to global warming.}, journal = {Microbiological research}, volume = {296}, number = {}, pages = {128113}, doi = {10.1016/j.micres.2025.128113}, pmid = {40037109}, issn = {1618-0623}, abstract = {Climate change is altering the equilibrium of the Earth's biosphere, imposing unpredictable survival dynamics on terrestrial organisms. This includes the intricate interactions between fungal pathogens and crop plants, which are pivotal for global food security. Rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate the prevalence of crop-pathogenic fungi worldwide, yet research on how crops respond to this imminent threat remains limited. Here, we identified predominant potential pathogens and antagonistic bacteria in vegetable fields in Shandong Province, China, revealing the near-ubiquitous presence of Fusarium oxysporum and Bacillus species in sampled soils of cucumber, tomato, chili, and ginger. Through simulated warming experiments within a temperature range of 20-40 °C and an experimental period of 3 days, we investigated the ternary interaction among vegetables and isolated F. oxysporum strain 05, and Bacillus sp. strain 31. Elevated temperatures enhanced F. oxysporum biomass and virulence, yet also stimulated vegetables to allocate more nutrients via root exudates. This enriched rhizospheric antagonistic Bacillus populations, it also boosted the expression of antifungal lipopeptide biosynthetic genes (bamb and ItuA) and auxin production in Bacillus sp. strain 31. This enrichment promoted plant growth and maintained a relatively stable level of pathogenic fungi. Our study unveiled a nuanced and complex interplay among crop plants, fungal pathogens, and rhizobacteria, that could inform future agricultural practices, and advance our understanding of crop survival strategies to bolster crop resilience and safeguard global food security under ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40036180, year = {2025}, author = {Li, C and Wang, C and Yang, X and Wang, D and Wang, F}, title = {Modeling the potential global distribution of the invasive Jack Beardsley mealybug (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toaf029}, pmid = {40036180}, issn = {1938-291X}, support = {BJ2020052//Science and Technology Project of Hebei Education Department/ ; }, abstract = {The Jack Beardsley mealybug, Pseudococcus jackbeardsleyi Gimpel &amp; Miller (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), is a dangerous invasive pest that feeds on plants more than 115 genera from 54 families, and has spread over 59 countries or regions, often causing direct and indirect damage to host plants, and resulting in significant economic losses. In this study, we assessed the potential global distribution of P. jackbeardsleyi using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model under current and future climate scenarios. Here, we obtained prediction models with high credibility and accuracy, which showed that isothermality (Bio 3) and annual precipitation (Bio 12) were the environmental variables with the largest contribution on the potential distribution of this pest. The potential distribution areas predicted by this study were mainly located in South America, Central Africa, the southern regions of Asia and the eastern coast of Australia. Under future climate scenarios, the total geographical distribution of this pest will contract to varying degrees by the end of this century, but the highly suitable areas will increase. This study provides a reference for the development of control strategies, but also offers a scientific basis for the effective biological control of this pest.}, }
@article {pmid40035376, year = {2025}, author = {Alibudbud, RC and Aruta, JJBR and Sison, KA and Guinto, RR}, title = {Artificial intelligence in the era of planetary health: insights on its application for the climate change-mental health nexus in the Philippines.}, journal = {International review of psychiatry (Abingdon, England)}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {21-32}, doi = {10.1080/09540261.2024.2363373}, pmid = {40035376}, issn = {1369-1627}, mesh = {Humans ; *Artificial Intelligence ; Philippines ; *Climate Change ; *Mental Health Services/organization &amp; administration ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {This review explores the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the light of evolving threats to planetary health, particularly the dangers posed by the climate crisis and its emerging mental health impacts, in the context of a climate-vulnerable country such as the Philippines. This paper describes the country's mental health system, outlines the chronic systemic challenges that it faces, and discusses the intensifying and widening impacts of climate change on mental health. Integrated mental healthcare must be part of the climate adaptation response, particularly for vulnerable populations. AI holds promise for mental healthcare in the Philippines, and be a tool that can potentially aid in addressing the shortage of mental health professionals, improve service accessibility, and provide direct services in climate-affected communities. However, the incorporation of AI into mental healthcare also presents significant challenges, such as potentially worsening the existing mental health inequities due to unequal access to resources and technologies, data privacy concerns, and potential AI algorithm biases. It is crucial to approach AI integration with ethical consideration and responsible implementation to harness its benefits, mitigate potential risks, and ensure inclusivity in mental healthcare delivery, especially in the era of a warming planet.}, }
@article {pmid40034780, year = {2025}, author = {Saunders, MJ and Boccia, D and Khan, PY and Goscè, L and Gasparrini, A and Clark, RA and Pescarini, JM and White, RG and Houben, RM and Zignol, M and Gebreselassie, N and Finn McQuaid, C}, title = {Climate change and tuberculosis: an analytical framework.}, journal = {medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1101/2025.02.18.25322451}, pmid = {40034780}, abstract = {Climate change is likely to exacerbate a range of determinants which drive tuberculosis, the world's leading infectious disease killer. However, tuberculosis is often neglected in wider climate health discussions. Commissioned by the World Health Organization, we developed an analytical framework outlining potential causal relationships between climate change and tuberculosis. We drew on existing knowledge of tuberculosis determinants, identified which are likely to be sensitive to the effects of climate change, and conceptualised the mechanistic pathways through which this might occur. We collated evidence for these pathways through literature reviews. Our reviews found no studies directly linking climate change and tuberculosis, warranting research to build evidence for action. The available evidence supports the existence of plausible links between climate change and tuberculosis, and highlights the need to include tuberculosis in climate risk adaptation and mitigation programmes, and climate-resilient funding and response mechanisms. Further evidence is urgently needed to quantify the effects of climate change on tuberculosis.}, }
@article {pmid40034663, year = {2025}, author = {Ames-Martínez, FN and Capcha Romero, I and Guerra, A and Inga Guillen, JG and Quispe-Melgar, HR and Galeano, E and Rodríguez-Ramírez, EC}, title = {Climate change and tree cover loss affect the habitat suitability of Cedrela angustifolia: evaluating climate vulnerability and conservation in Andean montane forests.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {e18799}, pmid = {40034663}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Cedrela ; *Ecosystem ; *Forests ; South America ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; Endangered Species ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Because of illegal logging, habitat fragmentation, and high value timber Andean montane forest Cedrela species (such as Cedrela angustifolia), is endangered in Central and South America. Studying the effects of climate change and tree cover loss on the distribution of C. angustifolia will help us to understand the climatic and ecological sensitivity of this species and suggest conservation and restoration strategies.<br><br>METHODS: Using ecological niche modeling with two algorithms (maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and Random Forest) under the ecological niche conservatism approach, we generated 16,920 models with different combinations of variables and parameters. We identified suitable areas for C. angustifolia trees under present and future climate scenarios (2040, 2070, and 2100 with SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5), tree cover loss, and variables linked to soil and topography.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results demonstrated 10 environmental variables with high percentage contributions and permutation importance; for example, precipitation seasonality exhibited the highest contribution to the current and future distribution of Cedrela angustifolia. The potential present distribution was estimated as 13,080 km[2]with tree cover loss and 16,148.5 km[2]without tree cover loss. From 2040 to 2100 the species distribution will decrease (from 22.16% to 36.88% with tree cover loss variation). The results indicated that Bolivia displayed higher habitat suitability than Ecuador, Peru, and Argentina. Finally, we recommend developing conservation management strategies that consider both protected and unprotected areas as well as the impact of land-use changes to improve the persistence of C. angustifolia in the future.}, }
@article {pmid40034425, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, Y and Shi, X and Du, H and Jiang, M and Li, F and Wang, J and Zhang, X}, title = {Spatiotemporal Distribution of Wine Grape Under Climate Change in Northwestern China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {e70826}, pmid = {40034425}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The favorable terroir of China's northwest region provides an ideal environment for the cultivation and thriving growth of grapes. However, climate change threatens to alter the optimal grape-growing regions, presenting considerable challenges to the local wine making industry. To enhance the utilization of regional climate resources and refine the wine grape industry's spatial distribution, this study assessed the performance of nine climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in Northwestern China, simulated the future spatiotemporal distribution of wine grape. Results showed that EC-Earth3 performed well in simulating temperature, precipitation, and interannual changes. Under the historical periods (1980-2014), the highly suitable areas for wine grapes were predominantly found in the eastern foothills of Helan Mountain in Ningxia, along the Yellow River in Wuhai and Linhe of Inner Mongolia, along the Qilian Mountains in Wuwei, Zhangye and Jiayuguan of Gansu, and along rivers and oases in the northern foothills of Tianshan Mountains, Ili River Valley, Tuha Basin, Yanqi Basin, Aksu, Muzart, and Kashgar of Xinjiang. Compared with historical periods, the highly and moderately suitable areas were expected to expand under SSP245 and SSP585. Nevertheless, the overall pattern of spatial distribution was not anticipated to experience substantial alterations. In the next 50 years (2055-2085), the suitable areas under SSP245 scenario would be higher than SSP585. Precipitation from July to September (pr79), soil pH (ph), elevation (dem), and near-surface air temperature in January (tas1) were the main factors affecting the suitable areas of wine grapes. Further analysis revealed that a certain level of the near-surface air temperature in January (tas1) contributed positively to the expansion of suitable areas. However, excessively high average temperatures in January and July tended to have a detrimental effect. A rise in winter temperature can foster a more favorable environment for wine grapes to overwinter. However, frequent summer heat waves and high winter temperatures caused by climate warming may have adverse effects.}, }
@article {pmid40034296, year = {2025}, author = {Henri Aurélien, AB}, title = {Vulnerability to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa countries. Does international trade matter?.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e42517}, pmid = {40034296}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {In a global context of climate vulnerability, characterized by populations' exposure to extreme temperatures, floods, and droughts, we highlight the role of international trade in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries resilience to climate shocks. Therefore, this paper examines the direct and indirect role of international trade in climate change vulnerability using a country-time fixed effects model and a panel of 39 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000 to 2021. The results obtained using the Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) method indicate that international trade, as a vector of wealth creation, directly reduces climate change vulnerability in SSA. We also find that international trade reduces climate change vulnerability through the channels of GDP, water availability, renewable energy and ICT. However, we show that food insecurity reduces the effect of international trade on climate change vulnerability. We recommend: intensifying trade practices to generate wealth, especially trade in environmental goods and services that allow for measuring, preventing, limiting, and reducing environmental damages. We also propose the implementation of government strategies to prepare for climate change, such as environmental policies. From the above, we have given this study implications not only in scientific terms but also in terms of commercial practice by the state and companies.}, }
@article {pmid40033115, year = {2025}, author = {}, title = {Net increase in temperature-related deaths under climate change in Europe.}, journal = {Nature medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40033115}, issn = {1546-170X}, }
@article {pmid40029887, year = {2025}, author = {Kim, DJ and Han, NY and Choi, MN and Jang, MJ and Shin, MS and Seo, CW and Lee, DH and Kwon, YS}, title = {Assessment of climate change impact on landscape tree distribution and sustainability in South Korea using MaxEnt-based modeling.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {e0316393}, pmid = {40029887}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Republic of Korea ; *Trees/growth &amp; development ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Betula ; Models, Theoretical ; Taxus ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {The rapidly changing climate is impacting species globally at an unprecedented rate, including humans. Consequently, extensive research is being conducted on the impacts of climate change on indigenous and vulnerable species. However, landscape trees, which are cultivated and managed by humans, receive less attention despite their significant role in urban environments. Landscape tree also have specific climatic ranges and environmental requirements, making them susceptible to climate change. In this study, we predicted the future sustainability of three native landscape trees (Stewartia koreana, Betula ermanii, and Taxus cuspidata) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. A time-series analysis of suitability was conducted, and the resulting maps were overlaid to classify regions of suitability. The findings indicate a general northward shift in climate suitability and a potential reduction in long-term suitable areas for all three species. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, potential suitable area for S. koreana increased, while those for B. ermanii, T. cuspidata decreased by the 2090s. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, suitable areas for S. koreana, B. ermanii, T. cuspidata decreased by 33.6%, 98.9%, and 90.1%, respectively. The climate suitability classification ("Sustainable suitability", "Risk", "Inflow", "Lost", and "Variable" regions) effectively identified areas of sustainability and risk, as well as regions requiring management. A notable decline in "Sustainable suitability" regions, which remained suitable from the present to the 2090s, was observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to SSP2-4.5. The methods utilized in this study offer valuable insights for future landscape planning and conservation. This research underscores the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate potential economic and ecological impacts of climate change by utilizing species distribution models for sustainable landscape planning and tree conservation.}, }
@article {pmid40029469, year = {2025}, author = {Naderi, M}, title = {Projections of major climate change indicators over Iran from 2021 to 2080.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40029469}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {No Number//Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {This study addresses the impact of climate change (2021-2080) on the seasonal distribution of rainfall, temperature, and season lengths over Iran under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of the low (SSP1-1.9), moderate (SSP2-4.5), and high (SSP5-8.5) levels of global warming, based on the 29 model ensemble of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Results reveal that spring and autumn lengths are ~ 90 days during the baseline period (1980-2014), while summer (~ 97 days) is longer than winter (~ 87 days) by 10 days. However, global warming will result in longer summer and winter and shorter spring and autumn seasons in the future. The temperature will increase during all four seasons of spring and autumn (1.5-2.7 ∘ C), winter (1.1-2.2 ∘ C), and summer (2.0-3.2 ∘ C) consistently with the level of global warming scenarios. Meanwhile, minimum and maximum temperature enhancement will occur during winter and summer, respectively, under a given climate change scenario. Rainfall over Iran will increase during all seasons (6-36%) under SSP1-1.9 but will reduce under warmer scenarios SSP2-4.5 (12-24%) and SSP5-8.5 (8-24%). The contributions of the spring, summer, autumn, and winter seasons to the annual rainfall are 32%, 5%, 20%, and 43%, respectively, implying winter and spring as wet seasons during the baseline period. However, climate change may shift the wet season from winter to spring or autumn, depending on the station and SSP, under climate change. Water managers and policymakers need to consider the highlighted issues for future sustainable management in Iran.}, }
@article {pmid40028955, year = {2025}, author = {Piarroux, R and Piarroux, M and Rebaudet, S}, title = {[Global cholera upsurge: Global warming and what else?].}, journal = {Medecine sciences : M/S}, volume = {41}, number = {2}, pages = {166-172}, doi = {10.1051/medsci/2025013}, pmid = {40028955}, issn = {1958-5381}, }
@article {pmid40028951, year = {2025}, author = {Dupuis, B and Brézillon-Dubus, L and Failloux, AB}, title = {[The effects of climate change on the emergence of dengue].}, journal = {Medecine sciences : M/S}, volume = {41}, number = {2}, pages = {137-144}, doi = {10.1051/medsci/2025009}, pmid = {40028951}, issn = {1958-5381}, mesh = {*Dengue/epidemiology/transmission ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Animals ; Mosquito Vectors/virology ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/transmission/virology ; Aedes/virology/physiology ; Dengue Virus/physiology ; Mosquito Control/methods ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, dengue has become a global issue due to its rapid spread and significant public health impact. Climate change is recognized as a key factor in the geographical spread of dengue and its vectors. Climate change affects dengue transmission through changes in temperature and precipitation, which affect both vectors and arboviruses. Climate change can also disrupt human migration patterns facilitating the spread of the virus and the invasion of vectors into new regions. Understanding the impact of climate change on dengue and its vectors is essential for developing strategies to prevent and control the disease. Appropriate mosquito control strategies, enhanced epidemiological surveillance and tailored public health systems are needed to mitigate the increasing burden of dengue in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40027413, year = {2025}, author = {Deng, R and Xiao, K and Chen, X and Huang, B and Li, H and Wu, L and Ning, H and Chen, H}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on the Narrow Endemic Herb Psilopeganum sinense (Rutaceae) in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {e71042}, pmid = {40027413}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Psilopeganum sinense is a perennial herb endemic to the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) of the Yangtze River and its surrounding regions. This species is crucial for ecological conservation and regional socioeconomic development. Recent extreme weather events in the TGRA have directly and indirectly caused local losses of numerous wild populations of P. sinense. Given the severe survival crisis induced by climate change, it is essential to explore the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of P. sinense. Although there is a general awareness of the adverse effects of climate change on various species, there is a lack of comprehensive studies focusing on the long-term effects and detailed climatic variables influencing the distribution of P. sinense. In this study, we aimed to use the random forest (RF) algorithm to analyze the redistribution of P. sinense across several critical climatic periods. The results indicated that the main variables limiting the present geographical distribution of P. sinense were precipitation seasonality and the mean diurnal range. Currently, P. sinense is mainly distributed in the riparian zone of the TGRA and its surrounding areas, exhibiting a relatively narrow climatic niche and habitat fragmentation pattern. Historically, distributions under past climatic conditions were relatively intact and more extensive than the current distribution area. During the last interglacial period, a broad distribution of highly suitable areas was observed in eastern Sichuan Province, northern Chongqing, and central Hubei Province, exhibiting a continuous distribution pattern. Future climate scenarios indicated a projected 32.84% decrease in suitable areas under RCP4.5-2050s. In northern Chongqing, the ecological corridors established in highly suitable habitats would fragment and gradually separate. Some previously unsuitable areas for P. sinense could transform into potentially suitable habitats because of climate change; however, these suitable areas might exhibit fragmented and discrete distribution patterns. In general, both the shrinkage of suitable habitats and habitat fragmentation would compress the already limited survival space of P. sinense, leading some populations to prematurely confront critical survival decisions under severe climate pressures. Our results not only provide a scientific basis for managing P. sinense resources in the context of climate change but also serve as an important reference for restoring wild P. sinense populations.}, }
@article {pmid40026640, year = {2025}, author = {Rahman, MS and Anika, AA and Raka, RA and Muratovic, AK}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Emerging Infectious Diseases and Human Physical and Mental Health in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Health care science}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {62-65}, pmid = {40026640}, issn = {2771-1757}, abstract = {This study aims to give possible solutions to the impact of climate change on the nation's physical and mental health and emerging infectious diseases. Improving Bangladesh's healthcare, response, and data collection systems is a public health emergency.}, }
@article {pmid40026276, year = {2025}, author = {Lin, X and Hu, W and Hii, KS and Xiao, W and Tan, H and Ma, L and Mohamed, HF and Cai, R and Kang, J and Luo, Z}, title = {Climate Change Drives Long-Term Spatiotemporal Shifts in Red Noctiluca scintillans Blooms Along China's Coast.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e17709}, doi = {10.1111/mec.17709}, pmid = {40026276}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {2022J06029//Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province/ ; 42276219//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has significantly altered the spatiotemporal distribution and phenology of marine organisms, yet the long-term trends and mechanisms driving these changes remain insufficiently understood. In this study, we analysed historical Noctiluca scintillans bloom data from coastal China (1933, 1952, 1981-2023), sea surface temperature (SST) records from the past 40 years, and 509 field samples using Single Molecule Real-Time (SMRT) sequencing (2019-2024). Our results indicate that SST is the primary driver of N. scintillans blooms, exhibiting a nonlinear unimodal correlation. Long-term SST warming has caused a northward shift in bloom locations, aligning with the 21.9°C-22.7°C isotherms, as reflected by the increasing average latitudes of bloom occurrences. Over the past 4 decades, bloom frequency and duration have followed an overall increasing trend, displaying an approximate 10-year cyclical pattern. Ocean warming has also contributed to earlier bloom initiation, extended peak bloom periods and delayed bloom termination, shaping the long-term dynamics of N. scintillans blooms. SMRT sequencing confirmed that local N. scintillans populations persist year-round, serving as latent seed sources that can rapidly bloom when environmental conditions become favourable. These findings provide critical insights into the dynamics of harmful algal blooms in the context of climate change and lay a foundation for future ecological and environmental research.}, }
@article {pmid40025766, year = {2025}, author = {Day, L}, title = {Climate change and the environmental impact of asthma inhalers: advice for children, young people and families.}, journal = {Nursing children and young people}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.7748/ncyp.2025.e1545}, pmid = {40025766}, issn = {2046-2344}, abstract = {Climate change is an ever-increasing threat that is having significant detrimental effects on the planet and people's health and well-being. This article explores these effects and examines the environmental impact of different types of inhalers, demonstrating the vast difference between certain types. It also discusses how children's nurses can implement inhaler changes in children and young people effectively, using change management theory and recognised change tools as a guide. With reference to the latest research and studies, the author demonstrates how making inhaler changes can significantly reduce their impact on the environment, thereby protecting the lives of children today and future generations.}, }
@article {pmid40025469, year = {2025}, author = {Tardieu, L and Driscoll, MA and Jones, KR}, title = {Neo-tropical species production: a sustainable strategy for climate change adaptation in neo-tropical regions.}, journal = {BMC veterinary research}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {134}, pmid = {40025469}, issn = {1746-6148}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Tropical Climate ; Caribbean Region ; Latin America ; Animal Husbandry/methods ; Animals, Wild ; Livestock ; }, abstract = {This opinion piece clarifies the impact of climate change on animal production in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region and proposes a sustainable solution. Anthropogenic climate change has resulted in higher ambient temperatures, rainfall, humidity, storms and desertification. These events have direct and indirect effects on conventional animal performance and this piece will highlight the impact of increased temperatures on their welfare, health and production in the LAC. Alternative species such as neo-tropical wildlife animals have been proposed as climate resilient animals for use in the LAC, as they are well adapted to the climate and environment in the tropics. Some of these animals include capybara, lappe, agouti, caiman, cocrico and collared peccary. Neo-tropical animal production has the potential to produce nutritious meat, quality leather, reduce pollution and serve as a form of sustainable production. These animals can be inserted into a sustainable production system as their feed resources can be supplied through the use of local feedstuff, they also require less water and energy for maintenance, as they are well adapted to the high temperature and humidity in comparison to domesticated animals such as cattle, pigs and chickens. Finally, the key challenges including the legal use of the animals throughout the year, lack of technical experience and limited knowledge on the biology of these animals are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid40025403, year = {2025}, author = {Murea, M and Avesani, CM and Torreggiani, M}, title = {Understanding drivers of climate change action among nephrology professionals.}, journal = {Journal of nephrology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40025403}, issn = {1724-6059}, }
@article {pmid40024984, year = {2025}, author = {Chávez-Bustamante, F and Rojas, CA}, title = {Diverse experiences, diverse adaptations: A multidimensional look at climate change responses.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {40024984}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {Vicerrector&#xed;a de Investigaci&#xf3;n y Postgrado [Project VIPUCT-2022PI-CR-1].//Universidad Cat&#xf3;lica de Temuco/ ; }, abstract = {Human behavioral adaptation to climate change has gained increasing attention from multiple disciplines; behavioral literature, for instance, has studied people's responses to climate change when physically experiencing a specific climate event. Our research builds on that literature and incorporates a multidimensional approach to experiences and adaptation: rather than studying one physical manifestation and a particular response, we test whether different climate events relate to different forms of adaptation. Based on a national environmental survey, we employ Bayesian regression modeling to comprehend whether adaptation actions (changes in clothing, diet, occupation, house infrastructure, and water and energy consumption) relate to various reported experiences (droughts, floods, rains, heatwaves, forest fires, problems in food supply, biodiversity loss, and rise in sea level). Our results highlight the heterogeneous nature of behavioral responses to perceived climate change events: not all climate change manifestations relate to adaptation actions, thereby providing a multidimensional view of the action-experience relation.}, }
@article {pmid40021939, year = {2025}, author = {Seymour, JR and McLellan, SL}, title = {Climate change will amplify the impacts of harmful microorganisms in aquatic ecosystems.}, journal = {Nature microbiology}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {615-626}, pmid = {40021939}, issn = {2058-5276}, support = {DP210101610//Department of Education and Training | Australian Research Council (ARC)/ ; }, abstract = {More than 70% of the human population lives within five kilometres of a natural water feature. These aquatic ecosystems are heavily used for resource provision and recreation, and represent the interface between human populations and aquatic microbiomes, which can sometimes negatively impact human health. Diverse species of endemic aquatic microorganisms, including toxic microalgae and pathogenic bacteria, can be harmful to humans. Aquatic ecosystems are also subject to intrusions of allochthonous pathogenic microorganisms through pollution and runoff. Notably, environmental processes that amplify the abundance and impact of harmful aquatic microorganisms are occurring with increasing frequency owing to climate change. For instance, increases in water temperature stimulate outbreaks of pathogenic and toxic species, whereas more intense precipitation events escalate microbial contamination from stormwater discharge. In this Perspective we discuss the influence of aquatic microbiomes on the health and economies of human populations and examine how climate change is increasing these impacts.}, }
@article {pmid40021917, year = {2025}, author = {Sangsefidi, Y and Rios, A and Bagheri, K and Carroll, MW and Davani, H}, title = {Integrating social data and engineering solutions for developing resilient water infrastructure against coastal climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {7241}, pmid = {40021917}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2113987//National Science Foundation/ ; 2113984//National Science Foundation/ ; 2239602//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {This study combines responses from a social survey with compound flood modeling in a marginalized coastal community to assess implementation of green infrastructure, such as rain barrels and rain gardens, in a city scale. This research focuses on the City of Imperial Beach, CA, which is an underserved coastal community located near the border with Mexico. A principal objective of the present research was analyzing social survey responses and the public's perceptions to estimate the extent to which decentralized water infrastructure might be accepted by and feasible for the target underserved coastal community. The feasibility of the proposed solution is strengthened through a collaboration with the City of Imperial Beach, which has led to the results of this study being presented in various public sources and forums. The social survey revealed that more than 4/5 of respondents are interested in receiving a rain barrel for free, and the needed financial incentives for rain barrel and rain garden installation can be the whole cost of the practice. Results of the social survey provide promising prospects for the community's adoption of decentralized water infrastructure, but public awareness and engagement still need to be improved through appropriate outreach activities, particularly in areas at risk of future flooding and sewer overflows. The effectiveness of our proposed solution is assessed through hydrologic-hydraulic model outputs, deploying a fine resolution 2-dimensional overland flow model, present that for a stormdrain system with typical defects (e.g. 0.25% porosity), working under current sea levels (i.e., sea level rise = 0 m), and a typical storm (e.g., 1-year rainfall), the flood volume may decrease 56-99% after implementing a rain barrel system and adding a rain garden system.}, }
@article {pmid40020586, year = {2025}, author = {Dondini, G and Vergari, S and Mori, E and Bertonelli, S and Ancillotto, L}, title = {Are bats tracking climate change? Long-term monitoring reveals phenology shifts and population trends of forest bats.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {969}, number = {}, pages = {178995}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178995}, pmid = {40020586}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is altering wildlife assemblages, although limited long-term data hinders understanding of its impacts. Bats are widely reported to be good models for studying climate change effects due to their sensitivity to temperature and migration patterns. Here we use forest bats as models to investigate how climate and interspecific interactions may affect wildlife species in the long-term, by monitoring populations of sympatric noctules over three decades. We aimed at understanding how climate influences fluctuations in population size and phenology, as well as assessing the role of interactions among sympatric species in shaping population trends. We investigated the long-term effects of climate change on forest bat species coexisting in the same mountainous area in central Italy. Through bat-box monitoring analysis, we examined population trends, phenological changes, and potential interspecific interactions. Overall, populations of all three species exhibited a significant increase, although fluctuations were largely driven by precipitation patterns. Specifically, cumulative yearly precipitation affected population sizes of all species, with N. leisleri additionally influenced by minimum yearly temperatures and by the presence of N. lasiopterus. We also documented phenological shifts, particularly in N. leisleri, with males advancing their arrival as early as February, and females delaying to late summer and autumn, leading to a significant decline in seasonal intersex overlap. Interspecific interactions also apparently shaped population trends, with N. lasiopterus showing a positive association with N. noctula, and N. leisleri being displaced from areas with increasing presence of N. lasiopterus. These findings indicate that forest bats may alter their ecology in response to climate change, yet inconsistently among species and between sexes, with potentially negative effects upon interspecific interactions and individual reproductive success. Besides, we highlight the importance of long-term monitoring programs in understanding the multifaceted effects of climate change on bat populations in forest ecosystems, particularly in mountain habitats.}, }
@article {pmid40020370, year = {2025}, author = {Rizzo, D and Vinatier, F and Jacob, F and Ferchichi, I and Mekki, I and Albergel, J and Bailly, JS}, title = {A framework for the sustainable maintenance of permanent runoff management structures in rainfed agriculture under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {377}, number = {}, pages = {124718}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124718}, pmid = {40020370}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Rainfed agriculture supports a significant share of global food production, balancing water storage with competing demands through runoff management. Human interventions to manage runoff range from temporary practices (e.g., tillage adjustments, crop residue retention) to permanent structures such as terraces and ditches. While practices are adaptable, structures are less flexible but critical for climate resilience. Their life-cycle comprises design/construction, maintenance, abandonment/destruction, and rehabilitation. Despite extensive research on design, rehabilitation, and abandonment, the description, understanding, and impact of maintenance practices remain understudied. This paper addresses this gap through a configurative review (1954-2024), integrating scattered knowledge. We show that rainfall variability, driven by climate change, accelerates biophysical degradation (e.g., terrace deformation, ditch occlusion), requiring adaptation and knowledge sharing to ensure structural stability and hydrological connectivity. Results highlight how regional inconsistencies in structure names hinder cross-regional comparisons and research consolidation. Our contributions include a framework for standardizing: (1) a context-specific evaluation of maintenance practices and (2) an assessment of runoff management structure efficiency under climate change. By integrating biophysical durability, socioeconomic feasibility, and adaptive governance, this framework provides stakeholders and academic actors with a common basis for systematically evaluating and improving runoff management. In practice, we urge policymakers and practitioners to adopt proactive, climate-adaptive maintenance, and to incentivize local community involvement for hybridizing traditional knowledge and technical innovation. By integrating maintenance into farming system design and management, these structures may effectively mitigate the impacts of an increasingly unpredictable climate, ensuring long-term resilience and sustainability in rainfed agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid40018556, year = {2024}, author = {Arunda, MO and Sorcher, R and Canabarro, APF and Svallfors, S and Endler, M and Gemzell-Danielsson, K and Kågesten, A and Ali, M and Bahamondes, L and Barreix, M and Chou, D and Gonsalves, L and Johnston, HB and Kiarie, J and Kim, CR and Narasimhan, M and Pallitto, C and Shah, MG and Say, L and Thorson, A and Ekström, AM and Larsson, EC and Brizuela, V}, title = {Climate change and sexual and reproductive health and rights research in low-income and middle-income countries: a scoping review.}, journal = {BMJ public health}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {e001090}, pmid = {40018556}, issn = {2753-4294}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to provide an overview of the research landscape and to identify research gaps linking climate change events and sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the negative impacts of climate change are most severe.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a scoping review to map research studies that link climate change events or factors and SRHR aspects in LMICs. We performed a structured literature search across six databases to identify relevant peer-reviewed publications between January 1994 and 6 September 2023. The literature search yielded 14&#x2009;674 peer-reviewed articles. After screening, 75 articles were included, spanning 99 countries across the globe.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change events such as extreme temperatures, drought, rainfall shocks, cyclones and floods were found to be associated with negative maternal and newborn health outcomes ranging from reduced or low birth weight, preterm births and low Apgar scores, to lack of pregnancy care, pregnancy complications, stillbirths, and newborn and maternal deaths. Associations were also found between climate-related events and increased gender-based violence and HIV prevalence, as well as fertility decisions and harmful practices such as female genital mutilations and early and forced marriages. About two-thirds (48/75) of the articles were from the African or Western Pacific regions. The main research gaps on climate change-related events and SRHR included abortion, reproductive cancers and contraception use.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Complementing existing evidence with targeted research to fill these knowledge gaps could enhance mitigation programmes and policies.}, }
@article {pmid40016244, year = {2025}, author = {Kumar, A and Mohanasundari, T}, title = {Assessing climate change risk and vulnerability among Bhil and Bhilala tribal communities in Madhya Pradesh, India: a multidimensional approach.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {7096}, pmid = {40016244}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {India/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Risk Assessment ; Vulnerable Populations/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Female ; Male ; Rain ; Family Characteristics ; }, abstract = {Climate change presents significant risks to marginalized communities, particularly in tribal groups like the Bhil and Bhilala communities of Madhya Pradesh, India. Limited empirical studies have focused on the effects of climate change on tribes in India. This study aims to assess climate change risk and vulnerability among tribal communities, employing the modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test to identify climate trends, a risk assessment framework based on the Intergovernmental panel on climate change sixth assessment report (IPCC-AR6), and multiple linear regression (MLR). The MMK test indicates an increasing trend in rainfall (MMK = 1.099) and temperature. However, household perceptions reveal a high awareness of climatic changes, with 97% of respondents reporting irregularity in rainfall and 98% documenting increased summer hot days. The risk assessment shows that Bhil households face higher risk (0.107) than Bhilala households (0.068), which is determined by higher exposure and sensitivity. MLR results further emphasize that 12 of 23 indicators significantly affect risk assessment (R-squared = 0.698), with climatic events (β = 0.015), housing structure (β = 0.07), and food security being key contributors. The findings indicate that long-term climate trends are already affecting tribal livelihoods. It calls for targeted adaptation strategies, incorporating enhanced infrastructure, crop diversification, and better access to climate information and government schemes.}, }
@article {pmid40015965, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, Y and Shuai, C and Chen, X and Huang, W and Sun, J and Zhao, B}, title = {Estimating water scarcity risks under climate change: A provincial perspective in China.}, journal = {Water environment research : a research publication of the Water Environment Federation}, volume = {97}, number = {3}, pages = {e70031}, doi = {10.1002/wer.70031}, pmid = {40015965}, issn = {1554-7531}, support = {52200209//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 52370192//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 52200221//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2023CDSKXYGK11//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Water Supply ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Water is a crucial raw material in economic production activities. Research indicates that water scarcity can lead to significant economic output losses (water scarcity risk, WSR), affecting not only the local area (referred to as local water scarcity risk, LWSR) but also causing economic losses to other regions through trade networks (referred to as virtual water scarcity risk, VWSR). With climate change exacerbating this challenge, understanding the water scarcity risk under changing climatic conditions is essential. However, few studies have addressed this issue comprehensively. To fill this gap, we developed a comprehensive model incorporating environmental flow requirements, water withdrawal, supply, economic output, and trade networks to assess LWSR and VWSR among China's provinces under climate change. Our analysis reveals a growth in China's WSR from $4.6 trillion in 2020 to $5 trillion in 2030. Specifically, both local water scarcity risk (LWSR) and virtual water scarcity risk (VWSR) amounted to $0.9 trillion and $3.7 trillion, respectively, in 2020, increasing to $1.0 trillion and $4.0 trillion by 2030. We also identified hot-spot provinces and sectors with high WSR and proposed relevant policy implications. Our findings contribute to China's climate change mitigation efforts, particularly in formulating strategies to address water scarcity risk. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Spatial heterogeneity-based environmental flow requirement is considered. The water scarcity risk of the Chinese agricultural sector in 2017 amounted to $1.1 trillion. LWSR and VWSR are 0.3 and 0.8 $trillion, respectively. Hotspot Chinese provinces and sectors are identified.}, }
@article {pmid40015125, year = {2025}, author = {Vigren, C and Vospernik, S and Morin, X and Toïgo, M and Bielak, K and Bravo, F and Heym, M and Löf, M and Pach, M and Ponette, Q and Pretzsch, H}, title = {Divergent regional volume growth responses of Scots Pine and Oak stands to climate change in Europe.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {969}, number = {}, pages = {178858}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178858}, pmid = {40015125}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {European climatic change has been proposed to induce many changes to forests, about factors such as tree species distributions, site productivity, groundwater availability, outbreaks of forest pests, and damage from wind-breakage of trees. Novel approaches to empirical tree growth modelling using re-measurements over large climatic gradients capture variability associated with long-term climatic conditions as well as weather during the growth period. Using the latest version of the individual tree-based forest simulator, PrognAus, which has been outfitted with a climate-sensitive basal area increment module, we forecast growth of trees in pure and mixed stands of Pinus sylvestris L. and Quercus spp. across a network of 23 European sites between 2017 and 2100 under current climate and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climatic scenarios. By training a stand-level static reduced model (SRM) from these local level results, we forecast widespread future growth changes for stands of Pinus sylvestris and Quercus spp. across Europe. Our SRM predicts stand gross-volume relative growth (ratio of the gross volume production in a given growth year to the gross volume production until the start of the growth year) with a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). We decomposed overall growth into tensors capturing variation associated with stand species mixture type (pure P. sylvestris, mixed P. sylvestris- Q. spp., pure Q. spp.), age, and weather conditions during the growth year and the preceeding year. Wall-to-wall predictions based on the SRM are presented for a high-resolution 30-arcsecond grid spanning most parts of Europe.}, }
@article {pmid39832547, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, Y and Zhang, X and Fang, W and Cai, Y and Zhang, G and Liang, J and Chang, J and Chen, L and Wang, H and Zhang, P and Wang, Q and Zhang, Y}, title = {Carbon sequestration potential of wetlands and regulating strategies response to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {269}, number = {}, pages = {120890}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.120890}, pmid = {39832547}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Wetlands ; *Climate Change ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; }, abstract = {Wetlands are important carbon sinks for mitigating climate warming. In this paper, greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes and carbon sequestration capacity of freshwater wetlands, coastal wetlands and constructed wetlands around the world are evaluated, and strategies to improve carbon sequestration by wetlands are proposed based on the main influencing factors. Air temperature and average annual rainfall are significantly positively correlated with CH4 flux and N2O flux in freshwater wetlands and coastal wetlands. While chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations of influent are found to be the main factors affecting GHG fluxes in constructed wetlands. The main factors affecting wetland carbon storage include the presence and species of wetland vegetation, ecological water level, and ecological pattern. Strategies for protecting and restoring existing wetlands, creating new wetlands, and strengthening the carbon sequestration capacity of wetlands are proposed. Fully realizing the carbon sequestration potential of wetlands holds the prospect of a more effective and sustainable response to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40015090, year = {2025}, author = {Paul, S and Chakraborty, D and Tripathi, AK}, title = {Frontline extension services as a buffer against social vulnerability to climate change: A case study of shifting cultivators in Northeast India.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {377}, number = {}, pages = {124607}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124607}, pmid = {40015090}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The frontline extension system (FES) can play a key role in helping shifting cultivator (jhumia) communities adapt to climate change. Providing essential farming knowledge and critical resources can help these communities reduce social vulnerabilities. The present study in this specific regard assesses the social vulnerability of shifting cultivators using the social vulnerability index (SVI) approach in the difficulty-prone Northeastern region of India (NEI). Then it also analyses the effect of the FES in reducing their social vulnerability. Cross-sectional primary data on adaptive capacity and sensitivity indicators generated through household surveys and temperature and precipitation data on exposure parameters helped us to develop the SVI. The results of a sensitivity test suggest that the constructed SVI is not sensitive to changes in indicator-weighting schemes therefore, can be considered to have produced credible results. Results of the study indicate that FES interventions could decrease the social vulnerability of shifting cultivators by enhancing their adaptive capacity and thereby reducing their dependence on shifting cultivation. Education, resourcefulness, locational advantages, progressiveness, and alternate sources of information were the key determinants of contact with the FES. Since the vulnerability of the jhumia households can be reduced through FES interventions and contact with the FES can be improved by better equipping the FES machinery to extend their outreach, we recommend that investment in infrastructure, working resources, and manpower engaged in FES may be optimized. Commensurate with the results, it is further recommended that the FES should comprise specialized programmes on easy-to-adopt, low-cost, and low-skill-requiring alternate income generating activities, prioritize mixed farming options with animal components, ensure a higher rate of seed replacement with HYVs, and multiple stress-tolerant-crops and varieties for reducing the social vulnerability of the shifting cultivators.}, }
@article {pmid40014607, year = {2025}, author = {Hafilah Wan Ariffin, WN and Sidek, LM and Basri, H and Idros, N and Adrian, MT and Abd Ghani, NH and Khambali, HM and Allias Omar, SM and Azhar Khebir, MI and Ahmed, AN}, title = {Overtopping risk of high-hazard embankment dam under climate change condition.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {e0311181}, pmid = {40014607}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Malaysia ; Rain ; Floods ; Climate Models ; Hydrology ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses an escalating threat to the safety of high-hazard embankment dams, increases flood discharge impacting dam overtopping risk by altering the hydrological load of the original dam designed capacity. This paper's primary aims are to evaluate climate change's influence on extreme rainfall events and their impact on dam safety and to assess the overtopping risk of Batu Dam under various climate scenarios. This study focusses on assessing the overtopping risk of Batu Dam in Malaysia, utilizing regional climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) spanning 2020 to 2100. Three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 as the scenario and divide into 3 period of study: early century (2020-2046), mid (2047-2073) and late-century (2074-2100) evaluated with hydrological analysis to access the dam safety. Using the Linear Scaling Method (LSM), we corrected the bias projection rainfall data from three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the RCPs. Future Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) was estimated using statistical analysis techniques developed by the National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM). Additionally, Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves were updated based on climate scenarios outlined in the Hydrological Procedure 2021 and the associated Climate Change Factors. The HEC-HMS hydrological model was employed to simulate PMF and IDF for ARIs ranging from 1 to 100,000 years, providing a comprehensive analysis of risks under future climatic conditions. Across all future climate scenarios, inflow events were projected to exceed the dam design inflow, with RCP8.5 indicating the highest inflow values, particularly later in the century, highlighting probability of overtopping risks. Late-century projections show inflow for ARI 50 under RCP8.5 exceeding PMF by 20%, while mid-century RCP6.0 results indicate a 15% higher inflow for ARI 50000. Early-century RCP4.5 shows a 10% increase for ARI 100000 compared to PMF. The study advocates adaptive dam safety management and flood protection measures. This research provides crucial insights for embankment dam owners, stressing the urgent need to address Batu Dam's vulnerability to extreme flooding amidst climate change and emphasizing proactive measures to fortify critical infrastructure and protect downstream communities.}, }
@article {pmid40012865, year = {2025}, author = {Parzniewski, S and Luo, X and Ru, S and Ozbilge, N and Breen, K and Wu, H}, title = {Factors affecting the risk of gender-based violence among 2SLGBTQIA+ adolescents and youth: a scoping review of climate change-related vulnerabilities.}, journal = {Frontiers in sociology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1541039}, pmid = {40012865}, issn = {2297-7775}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Gender-based violence (GBV) is a pervasive and growing issue that affects diverse populations worldwide. This study aimed to synthesize the factors affecting the risk of GBV among 2SLGBTQIA+ adolescents and youth. A scoping review was conducted using international databases (Web of Science, Scopus, Proquest, PubMed, Embase, EBSCOhost) since 2009. The studies were independently appraised by two reviewers guided by the PRISMA approach. Ninety-nine articles focusing on the 2SLGBTQIA+ community, GBV, and adolescents or youth were included for the review. The factors affecting the risk of GBV among 2SLGBTQIA+ adolescents and youth were categorized into (1) Wellbeing and mental health; (2) Disparities compared to cisgender youth; (3) Perpetration and victimization; (4) Different types of violence; and (5) Differences among 2SLGBTQIA+ subgroups. The studies further showed relevance to climate-related stressors such as displacement and resource scarcity, and how those can further amplify the vulnerabilities of 2SLGBTQIA+ youth to GBV. The findings revealed the necessity for multi-level strategies that account for the compounded risks faced by 2SLGBTQIA+ adolescents and youth, including those introduced by environmental crises. These five factors related to GBV among 2SLGBTQIA+ adolescents and youth should be considered by social work professionals when working with at-risk populations. Due to limited robust evidence (from countries outside the US) and the diverse contexts of the selected studies, future research is needed to minimize GBV among 2SLGBTQIA+ adolescents and youth, especially as climate change introduces new layers of vulnerability.<br><br>10.37766/inplasy2024.4.0008.}, }
@article {pmid40012175, year = {2025}, author = {Balshi, A}, title = {Climate change and multiple sclerosis: Clinical challenges and strategies.}, journal = {Multiple sclerosis (Houndmills, Basingstoke, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {13524585251322664}, doi = {10.1177/13524585251322664}, pmid = {40012175}, issn = {1477-0970}, abstract = {Climate change poses significant challenges for people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS), exacerbating symptoms such as heat sensitivity. Increasing levels of air pollution contribute to neuroinflammation and has been associated with symptom flares, and mobility impairments complicate resource access for PwMS during climate-related weather emergencies. This paper explores the broad implications of climate change on multiple sclerosis (MS) and offers strategies for clinicians to address these emerging challenges, as understanding the broad impacts of climate change on MS is crucial to provide effective care in a changing world.}, }
@article {pmid40011720, year = {2025}, author = {Hu, A}, title = {Atlantic circulation could be more resilient to global warming than was thought.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {638}, number = {8052}, pages = {893-894}, pmid = {40011720}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid40011324, year = {2025}, author = {Matturro, A and Zambelli, E and Cuoghi, E and Copelli, D and Usberti, F and Fioni, A and Labadini, L}, title = {Innovative Drug Development Approach to Address the Transition to Low Global Warming Potential Propellant Using Hydrofluoroalkane-152a, for Triple Combination Pressurized Metered-Dose Inhaler Products Targeting Small Airways.}, journal = {AAPS PharmSciTech}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {72}, pmid = {40011324}, issn = {1530-9932}, mesh = {*Metered Dose Inhalers ; *Hydrocarbons, Fluorinated/chemistry/administration &amp; dosage ; *Aerosol Propellants/chemistry ; Administration, Inhalation ; *Drug Development/methods ; Particle Size ; Humans ; Aerosols ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/drug therapy ; Asthma/drug therapy ; Chemistry, Pharmaceutical/methods ; Fluorocarbons ; }, abstract = {Recent and emerging environmental policies have boosted the investigation of pressurized metered-dose inhalers (pMDI) that have a minimal impact on climate change. There is a current move away from existing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)-based propellants, specifically the hydrofluoroalkane (HFA)-134a and HFA-227ea based pMDI products that are approved for the treatment of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), towards those that use low global warming potential (LGWP) propellants. Changing the propellant to, for example, the less environmentally-damaging HFA-152a, is a focus for many manufacturers. In this paper, we report an innovative approach to developing new pMDI drug products with a LGWP propellant. Moreover, proof of the hypothesis that products containing the current propellant and those using a LGWP propellant can achieve equivalent performance is reported, by showing comparability of a triple combination pMDI (Trimbow®) formulated using the LGWP HFA-152a propellant compared with HFA-134a. This paper will present the use of in silico mathematical modelling, leveraging on Chiesi proprietary Modulite® principles to predict and validate in vitro performances of the drug product under development. Validation is carried out using realistic aerodynamic particle size distribution (rAPSD), a novel approach that offers a more accurate prediction of aerosol distribution by incorporating variations compared to the standard aerodynamic particle size distribution (APSD). Additional in vitro testing validates the prediction of in silico models and confirms good comparability in terms of aerodynamic performance between HFA-152a and HFA-134a, which translates in vivo as evidenced by the preliminary pharmacokinetics (PK) in animal models and the formal clinical PK bioequivalence (BE) studies. (Rony et al. in Pulm Pharmacol Ther 85, 2024).}, }
@article {pmid40011143, year = {2025}, author = {Turpin, A and Matte, P and Delaye, M and Piffoux, M}, title = {[Towards a more "sustainable" oncology in the era of global warming?].}, journal = {Bulletin du cancer}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.bulcan.2025.01.005}, pmid = {40011143}, issn = {1769-6917}, }
@article {pmid40010253, year = {2025}, author = {Potier, M and Savina-Rolland, M and Belloeil, P and Gascuel, D and Robert, M}, title = {How will the cumulative effects of fishing and climate change affect the health and resilience of the Celtic Sea ecosystem?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {969}, number = {}, pages = {178942}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178942}, pmid = {40010253}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Ecosystems are subject to increasing anthropogenic pressures worldwide. Assessing cumulative effects of multiple pressures and their impacts on recovery processes is a daunting scientific and technical challenge due to systems' complexity. However, this is of paramount importance in the context of ecosystem-based management of natural systems. Our study provides major insights into the assessment of cumulative effects on Northeast Atlantic ecosystems. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) tropho-dynamic model for the Celtic Sea ecosystem including 53 functional groups, we (1) assess individual and cumulative effects of fishing and climate change and (2) explore the impact of fishing intensity and climate change on ecosystem resilience. Various levels of increasing fishing intensities are simulated over the whole 21st century, by forcing the EwE model with time series of sea temperature, primary production and secondary producer's biomass from the regional POLCOMS-ERSEM climate model, under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Cumulative impacts on the ecosystem's health and its capacity to recover after the cessation of fishing activities were assessed through a set of 45 indicators (biomass-based, diversity, trait-based and habitat-based indicators), using a theoretical non-fishing and climate-constant scenario as a reference. Our results reveal climate change impacts on Boreal, pelagic species and on ecosystem stability. Fishing preferentially removes apex predators and is predicted to increase the likelihood of a regime shift by decreasing ecosystems' capacity to recover. Predicted cumulative effects are mainly additive and antagonistic but synergies are observed for high fishing effort levels, and finally climate change had minor impacts on ecosystem recovery to fishing. Fishing is shown to be the main driver of cumulative impacts and of ecosystem resilience over the next decades. Our results suggest that slight reduction in fishing effort is enough to compensate the impact of climate change. Future research should then be directed towards exploring and evaluating ecosystem-based climate-adaptive fisheries management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid40010122, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, S and Arhonditsis, GB and Ji, Y and Bryan, BA and Peng, J and Zhang, Y and Gao, J and Zhang, J and Cho, KH and Huang, J}, title = {Climate change promotes harmful algal blooms in China's lakes and reservoirs despite significant nutrient control efforts.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {277}, number = {}, pages = {123307}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2025.123307}, pmid = {40010122}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {The increasing frequency and magnitude of harmful algal blooms (HABs) threatens the integrity of aquatic ecosystem functioning and human health worldwide. Nutrient reduction strategies have been widely used to mitigate HABs, but their efficiency in light of on-going changes in climate remains unclear. Here, we assembled an 18-year (2005-2022) national water quality dataset for 97 lakes across China. We examined the dynamics of HABs and their response to nutrient reduction under historical climate change trends using a combination of statistical and process-based modeling. The results revealed an increase in HABs despite a widespread decline in ambient nutrient levels, with 80.5 % of lakes experiencing a decline in phosphorus but 61.8 % displaying an increase in Chlorophyll a concentrations. We attributed this counterintuitive trend to climatic warming, which can hinder the mitigation of HABs until the ambient nutrients reach sufficiently low levels. The extent of HAB promotion by warming varied spatially, with a distinctly greater proliferation in China's lower-latitude lakes (<35°N), primarily due to the prevailing warmer temperatures. Notwithstanding the persistence of HABs in China's lakes, national-scale modeling suggests that nutrient loading control remains valuable in protecting our water resources, as the HAB risk would have been 32.6 % higher due to climate change. The anticipated future nutrient reduction efforts in China are expected to alleviate higher latitude lakes from frequent HAB occurrences, but lower latitude lakes will still face considerable HAB risks. Our national-scale assessment demonstrates a variant efficiency of nutrient reduction in offsetting HAB risks amid rapid climate change, and highlights the need of adaptively enhancing our mitigation strategies in response to the ever-changing ecological conditions.}, }
@article {pmid40009688, year = {2025}, author = {Li, C and Zwiers, FW and Zhang, X and Fischer, EM and Du, F and Liu, J and Wang, J and Liang, Y and Li, T and Yuan, L}, title = {Constraining the entire Earth system projections for more reliable climate change adaptation planning.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {eadr5346}, pmid = {40009688}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The warming climate is creating increased levels of climate risk because of changes to the hazards to which human and natural systems are exposed. Projections of how those hazards will change are affected by uncertainties in the climate sensitivity of climate models, among other factors. While the level-of-global-warming approach can circumvent model climate sensitivity uncertainties in some applications, practitioners faced with specific adaptation responsibilities often find such projections difficult to use because they generally require time-oriented information. Earth system projections following specified emissions scenarios can, however, be constrained by applying the level-of-global-warming approach to observationally constrained warming projections to yield more reliable time-oriented projections for adaption planning and implementation. This approach also allows individual groups to produce consistent and comparable assessments of multifaceted climate impacts and causal mechanisms, thereby benefiting climate assessments at national and international levels that provide the science basis for adaptation action.}, }
@article {pmid40009574, year = {2025}, author = {Degioanni, A and Cabut, S and Condemi, S and Smith, RS}, title = {Climate change in Europe between 90 and 50 kyr BP and Neanderthal territorial habitability.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {e0308690}, pmid = {40009574}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Neanderthals ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Humans ; Fossils ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {After having lived as the dominant human species in Europe for over 200 kyr, Homo neanderthalensis (the Neanderthals) disappeared around 40 kyr BP (Before Present) Higham T (2014). Competition with Homo sapiens, who arrived in Europe around the same time, is often invoked to explain this extinction. Others have argued that climate change may have reduced the living space of this population making its disappearance more rapid. In order to test the climate change hypothesis we modelled the Neanderthals' ecological niches in Europe between 90 and 50 kyr BP through paleoenvironmental reconstructions and Eco-Cultural Niche Modelling. We selected five environmental variables (orographic height, mean annual precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest month, carrying capacity and friction, see below) from climate model simulations of 5 periods between 90 and 50 kyr BP in Europe. We used Structural Similarity (SSIM) index to compare the probability maps of suitable niches to Neanderthals performed by Maxent. After a strong initial environmental change between the first (P1 = 90 to 83 kyr BP) and second (P2 = 83 to 69 kyr BP) periods, our results show that large areas highly suitable for Neanderthal occupation persisted across Europe. As our results show an increase/stability of the areas suitable to Neanderthals, the question of the cause of the decrease or displacement of the Neanderthal population towards southern Europe after this climatic change remains open.}, }
@article {pmid40007908, year = {2025}, author = {Mayrhofer, M and Ammer, M and Wladasch, K}, title = {The concept of vulnerability and its relation to equality in the context of human rights: cases from climate change, anti-discrimination and asylum.}, journal = {Frontiers in sociology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1522402}, pmid = {40007908}, issn = {2297-7775}, abstract = {The article analyzes the concept of vulnerability and its relation to the principles of equality and non-discrimination based on a theoretical discussion and the analysis of the concept in three case studies in different human rights areas. First, an overview of the development of the legal norms of the right to equality and non-discrimination in the context of social and political developments is given, including contextualizing and embedding the concept of vulnerability in this debate. Second, the results of three case studies from different policy and legal fields will be presented. The first case study focuses on the role of vulnerability in UN human rights documents on climate change and mobility, the second case study on the role of vulnerability in the anti-discrimination case law of European courts, and the third case study on the concept of vulnerability in Austrian asylum procedures. The objective is to study the concept in different settings and, subsequently, comparatively carve out common themes across the case studies. The case studies show that vulnerability is a fuzzy concept, which often ends up being attached to 'special-needs groups' and which frequently mobilizes stigmatizing and stereotyping narratives. The concept does not have equality-promoting connotations, emphasizes individual and group-specific deficit accounts, and often fails to grasp structural factors of discrimination and inequality.}, }
@article {pmid40007788, year = {2025}, author = {Eldos, HI and Tahir, F and Athira, UN and Mohamed, HO and Samuel, B and Skariah, S and Al-Ghamdi, SG and Al-Ansari, T and Sultan, AA}, title = {Mapping climate change interaction with human health through DPSIR framework: Qatar perspective.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e42455}, pmid = {40007788}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study investigates the interactions between climate change and human health with a particular focus on Qatar, using the DPSIR (Driving Forces, Pressures, States, Impacts, Responses) framework. Key drivers, including economic development and population growth, contribute to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exerting pressure on Qatar's climate through rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, as modeled by the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM). The findings reveal critical gaps in understanding the state of climate-health interactions, including insufficient disease data, incomplete climate-health linkages, and significant research gaps. These limitations hinder targeted responses to climate-sensitive diseases, which have shown an increase over the years. The study identifies the pathways through which climatic shifts contribute to immediate health risks, such as heat-related illnesses and respiratory conditions, as well as long-term impacts, including chronic diseases and mental health challenges. Despite Qatar's efforts through national and international strategies, the DPSIR analysis highlights the urgent need for enhanced research, improved data collection, and tailored actions to address these challenges. Strengthened adaptation, resilience-building, and emission reduction strategies remain essential for safeguarding public health in the face of accelerating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid40007469, year = {2025}, author = {Poinas, I and Meynard, CN and Fried, G}, title = {Plant Species Better Adapted to Climate Change Need Agricultural Extensification to Persist.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {e70030}, pmid = {40007469}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {ANR-21-CE32-006-01//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; OFB-24-0505//Office Fran&#xe7;ais de la Biodiversit&#xe9;/ ; //Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement/ ; //Agence Nationale de S&#xe9;curit&#xe9; Sanitaire de l'Alimentation, de l'Environnement et du Travail/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Agriculture ; France ; Plants ; Biodiversity ; Adaptation, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Agricultural intensification and climate change have led to well-known vegetation shifts in agricultural landscapes. However, concomitant plant functional changes in agroecosystems, especially at large scales, have been seldom characterised. Here, we used a standardised yearly monitoring of > 400 agricultural field margins in France to assess the temporal response of vegetation diversity and functional traits to variations in climate and intensity of agricultural practices (herbicides, fertilisation and mowing) between 2013 and 2021. We observed clear temporal trends of increasing warming and aridity, but trends towards agricultural extensification were weak or nonsignificant. Our results showed functional changes in plant communities over time, driven mostly by climate change and suggested selective forces opposing climate change to agricultural intensification. This translated as a temporal decline of competitive and ruderal species in favour of stress-tolerant species, putting plant communities in agroecosystems in a difficult position to escape both climate and agricultural pressures at the same time.}, }
@article {pmid40005813, year = {2025}, author = {Gargano, F and Brunetti, R and Buonanno, M and De Martinis, C and Cardillo, L and Fenizia, P and Anatriello, A and Rofrano, G and D'Auria, LJ and Fusco, G and Baldi, L and De Carlo, E and Ottaiano, M}, title = {Temporal Analysis of Climate Change Impact on the Spread and Prevalence of Vector-Borne Diseases in Campania (2018-2023).}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {40005813}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {Vector-borne infections (Arbovirosis) represent a significant threat to public health worldwide. Climate change, currently a global problem, seems to contribute to the incidence and prevalence of autochthonous and imported cases of arbovirosis in Europe. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the occurrence and spread of arbovirosis in order to offer concrete ideas to the competent authorities and modulate surveillance plans on the basis of risk assessment. The results of official controls carried out from 2018 to 2023 on animals subjected to the Surveillance Plans for Blue Tongue, West Nile and Usutu viruses in the Campania Region were analyzed. Statistical analyses were performed using R software (version 4.5.0). The possible correlation between the prevalence of infections and climate parameters was evaluated with the "cross-correlation time series" (p-value < 0.05). The generalized linear mixed model showed that for each unit increase in humidity and temperature, the probability of disease spread increased by 4.56% and 7.84%, respectively. The univariate logistic regression model and the odds ratio were necessary to evaluate the possible risk related to the proximity to wetlands or to bodies of water: in the past few years, these have represented a risk for the persistence and spread of arbovirosis in the Campania region.}, }
@article {pmid40005529, year = {2025}, author = {Anstead, GM}, title = {A One Health Perspective on the Resurgence of Flea-Borne Typhus in Texas in the 21st Century: Part 1: The Bacteria, the Cat Flea, Urbanization, and Climate Change.}, journal = {Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {40005529}, issn = {2076-0817}, mesh = {Animals ; Texas/epidemiology ; Cats/microbiology ; *Typhus, Endemic Flea-Borne/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Urbanization ; *Rickettsia typhi ; Dogs/microbiology ; One Health ; Siphonaptera/microbiology ; Rickettsia felis ; Opossums/microbiology ; }, abstract = {Flea-borne typhus (FBT), due to Rickettsia typhi and R. felis, is an infection typically causing fever, headache, rash, hepatitis, and thrombocytopenia. About one quarter of patients suffer pulmonary, neurologic, hematologic, renal, hepatic, cardiac, ocular or other complications. In the 21st century, the incidence of FBT has increased in both Texas and California compared to the 1990s. In this paper, county-level epidemiological data for the number of cases of FBT occurring in Texas for two decades, 1990-1999 and 2010-2019, were compared with respect to county of residence, urbanization, and climatic region. Human population growth in Texas has promoted FBT by increased urbanization and the abundance of pet dogs and cats, stray/feral dogs and cats, and opossums. Increasing temperatures in Texas in the new millennium have increased the flea-borne transmission of FBT by promoting host infestation and flea feeding and defecation, accelerating the flea life cycle, and increasing rickettsial replication within the flea. Increased numbers of opossums and stray cats and dogs in the urban/suburban landscape have increased the risk of flea transfer to humans and their pets.}, }
@article {pmid40005005, year = {2025}, author = {Latruffe, N and Lizard, G}, title = {Influence of Mediterranean Diet and Incidence of Global Warming on Food Habits and Plant Growth in Northern Mediterranean Latitudes: Narrative Review.}, journal = {Nutrients}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {40005005}, issn = {2072-6643}, mesh = {Humans ; *Diet, Mediterranean/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Feeding Behavior ; *Global Warming ; Mediterranean Region ; Plant Development ; Climate Change ; Agriculture/methods ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has consequences for farming, food diversity and availability, and diet habits. There is now evidence that the Mediterranean climate is rapidly spreading to the Northern European latitudes.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This narrative review aims to identify relevant studies related to climate change that could favor the progression of the Mediterranean climate in the northern latitudes of Europe, mainly in France, and to predict what the consequences of these changes on the human diet could be, especially using the concept of the Mediterranean diet, with subsequent impacts on health, farming, and eating habits.<br><br>METHODS: This narrative review was realized by consulting the PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, and Google Scholar databases.<br><br>RESULTS: The key points developed in this review are as follows: investigating the Mediterranean diet as a healthy diet, with evidence supporting health benefits and perspectives; similarities with other places in the world at the same Mediterranean latitudes; climate change and the resulting consequences on plant growth, farming, and food habits; and perspectives on the need for societal adaptations of populations towards agriculture, food, and cooking changes. As climate change facilitates the development of new farming practices with more or fewer environmental impacts, the growth of Mediterranean plants in the highest latitudes of Europe, such as olive trees, pomegranates, and almonds, has already begun for economic reasons.<br><br>FUTURE PERSPECTIVES: In the near future, besides economic interests, climate change will favor the consumption of several products associated with the Mediterranean diet in the Northern European latitudes. In this context, producers and consumers play major roles.}, }
@article {pmid40003761, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, Q and Wang, Z and Xu, D and Peng, Y and Wu, J and Liu, Z and Li, X and Zhuo, Z}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Papilio xuthus.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {40003761}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2022YFE0115200//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 20A007;20E051; 21E040 and 22kA011//undamental Research Funds of China West Normal University/ ; }, abstract = {The Papilio xuthus is a widely distributed species in the genus Papilio of the family Papilionidae, possessing ecological, ornamental, and socio-economic service values. To determine the ecological role of P. xuthus and assess its population distribution under future climate change scenarios, this study utilized the MaxEnt model to predict the geographic distribution of P. xuthus in the future and evaluate its population dynamics. The results indicated that P. xuthus is currently widely distributed in East Asia, with a high suitability area of 1827.83 × 10[3] km[2], primarily in China, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea. Climate change has a significant impact on the geographic distribution of P. xuthus, with its high suitability areas decreasing in the future, particularly within China, where the change is projected to be as high as 46.46% under the SSP126 scenario by the 2050s. The centroid of its high-suitability area is expected to shift northeastward. Key environmental variable analysis revealed that Temperature Seasonality, Mean Temperature of the Wettest Quarter, Precipitation of the Wettest Month, and Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter are critical factors influencing the selection of suitable habitats by P. xuthus. This study assessed the distribution of P. xuthus and provided conservation recommendations, offering a reference for future population control and conservation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid40003483, year = {2025}, author = {Tamire, M and Mor, SM and Baylis, M and Kaba, M}, title = {Perceived Impacts of Climate Change in Pastoralist Regions of Ethiopia: A Qualitative Study Applying the Concept of One Health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {40003483}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {BB/P027954/1//the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF), One Health Regional Network for the Horn of Africa (HORN) Project, UK Research, and Innovation (UKRI), and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)/ ; }, mesh = {Ethiopia ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; One Health ; Male ; Qualitative Research ; Female ; Focus Groups ; Adult ; Animals ; Middle Aged ; Animal Husbandry ; }, abstract = {Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with the increasing geographic extent, intensity, and frequency of drought. This study aimed to examine how pastoralist communities understand climate change and its impacts. We conducted a qualitative study among pastoral communities in Ethiopia using focus group discussions with community representatives and key informant interviews with human and animal health and agriculture experts. The collected data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. Participants viewed deforestation and population growth as the main causes of climate change. They found that climate change caused high temperatures, a shortage of rainfall, and drought. These changes affected the environment, food security, and animal health, impacting their livelihoods, health, and social systems. Coping strategies included engaging in new economic activities, environmental recovery attempts, migration, and seeking food aid for survival. They suggested providing food aid, improving access to human and animal health care, and implementing early warning systems at the community level. The pastoralists perceived that climate change destroyed the natural environment, increased food insecurity, and negatively affected social systems and health. Collaborative actions are needed to mitigate these effects, initiate local environmental adaptation mechanisms, enhance water and food security, and improve animal and human health services.}, }
@article {pmid40003459, year = {2025}, author = {Gkouliaveras, V and Kalogiannidis, S and Kalfas, D and Kontsas, S}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Health and Health Systems: A Systematic Review of Preparedness, Resilience, and Challenges.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {40003459}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Delivery of Health Care ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a significant impact on the population's health and negatively affects the functioning of healthcare systems. Health systems must be operationally prepared to handle the challenges posed by environmental change. Resilience is required to adapt quickly to critical environmental conditions and reduce carbon emissions. In this systematic review strategies, for health system preparedness and resilience are examined to address the impacts of climate change, and the barriers and challenges faced when implementing them. To identify studies, the Scopus, PubMed and Google Scholar databases were searched three times (from April to October 2024, 21 April, 15 June, and 9 September) for the years 2018 to 2024, using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) methodology. Specifically, the search identified 471 articles, of which the specified inclusion and exclusion criteria (secondary studies with inclusion criteria, being in English, etc.) were met by sixteen (16) studies. According to the findings of the studies reviewed, adaptation strategies focus on structural changes, the development of training programs, the development of surveillance systems, and appropriate operational plans. The leader's ability to motivate employees to achieve defined goals, continuous evaluation of goals and interventions, and learning from previous disasters play an important role in their implementation. Similarly, key policies and strategies for mitigation include the adoption of sustainable practices, such as recycling and cultural change. However, lack of resources (human, material, financial) and increased demand for health services make it difficult to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies. The findings of the review are mainly theoretical in nature and are confirmed by other studies. It is suggested that further research on resilience and preparedness of health systems should be pursued, leading to their sustainability and the formulation of appropriate policies.}, }
@article {pmid40003380, year = {2025}, author = {Ni, Q and Dong, H and Kaniadakis, A and Wang, Z and Ge, C}, title = {Investigating Older Adults' Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {40003380}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {101135803//UK research and Innovation/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Aged ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Focus Groups ; London ; }, abstract = {Older adults are both vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and uniquely positioned to contribute to climate action. However, their ability and willingness to engage vary significantly due to health disparities, financial constraints, and cultural factors. To ensure inclusivity, climate policies must reflect these differences and empower older adults to participate effectively. This research focused on 30 London-based older adults aged 60-85 (18 women, 12 men) selected via purposive sampling and stratified by gender and climate awareness. All participants were interested in climate issues and engaged in seven small focus groups facilitated by two researchers. Discussions addressed climate perceptions, low-carbon behaviors, and policy recommendations. The findings reveal that tailored communication, featuring simplified language and visual materials, resonates deeply with older adults, fostering better understanding and emotional connection. Participants highlighted practical low-carbon actions they already undertake, such as energy conservation, food waste reduction, and public transport use. They also proposed innovative strategies for promoting climate awareness, including integrating cultural and emotional elements, encouraging intergenerational learning, and providing economic incentives for green practices. To enhance the engagement of older adults in climate action, governments and corporations should develop inclusive communication strategies, provide financial support for adopting green technologies, and foster intergenerational collaboration to share knowledge and experiences in the communities. This study amplifies the voices of older adults in climate discourse, offering actionable insights for shaping communication strategies and policies. While this study provides valuable insights into older adults' contributions to climate action, future research could expand the sample size and geographic diversity to enhance the generalizability of findings.}, }
@article {pmid40003365, year = {2025}, author = {Steinmetz-Wood, S and Kennedy, AG and Hitt, JR and Barrett, K and Gilbert, MP}, title = {Perceptions of Endocrine Clinicians Regarding Climate Change and Health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {40003365}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Adult ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; Endocrinology ; Endocrinologists/psychology ; }, abstract = {The effects of climate change on the endocrine system are increasingly recognized. We aimed to evaluate endocrine clinicians' perspectives on climate change awareness and knowledge, motivation for action, and the need for climate health curricula. We designed an online questionnaire with endocrine-specific questions about climate change, which was shared through social media and email. Study data were collected between 9/2022 and 11/2022. Analyses were primarily descriptive. There were 164 responses; 98% were physicians, with a median age of 41 years. The majority (95%) reported that climate change is happening; 52% reported that they are very worried. Knowledge about climate change and health was variable (6.7% very, 40% moderately, 35% modestly, 17.7% not at all), with variable concerns regarding patient effects. The top endocrine climate-health concerns were reduced exercise, malnutrition, and weather-related disruptions. Most respondents agreed that climate change and health topics should be integrated into medical education (72.8% strongly agree or agree). The three resources perceived as most helpful were continuing medical education, patient resources, and policy statements. Endocrine clinicians are aware of and worried about climate change, with varying levels of knowledge and concern about climate change and health effects. We also exposed an untapped interest in developing endocrine-specific climate and health curricula.}, }
@article {pmid40003054, year = {2025}, author = {Wen, L and Zhang, H and Fang, Z and Chen, X}, title = {The Effects of Climate Change on Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis Habitats in the Northern Indian Ocean.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {40003054}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {NSFC42306117//Zhou Fang/ ; LOF 2021-01//Zhou Fang/ ; }, abstract = {The northern Indian Ocean is located in a typical monsoon region that is also influenced by climate events such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which makes Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis habitat highly susceptible to changes in climate and marine environmental conditions. This study established a suitability index (SI) model and used the arithmetic average method to construct a comprehensive habitat suitability index (HSI) model based on S. oualaniensis production statistics in the northern Indian Ocean from 2017 to 2019. Variations in the suitability of S. oualaniensis habitat during different IOD events were then analyzed. The results indicate that the model performed best when year, month, latitude, longitude, sea surface temperature (SST), wind speed (WS), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) variables were included in the generalized additive model (GAM). SST, WS, and PAR were identified as the most important key environmental factors. The HSI model showed that the most suitable habitat during a positive IOD event was smaller than during a negative IOD event and that the suitable habitat's center was located west of the positive IOD event and east of the negative IOD event. There was a significant inverse relationship between the area, suitable for habitation, and the north-south shift in the latitudinal gravity center and the Dipole modal index (DMI). The results indicate significant differences in the habitat of S. oualaniensis in the northern Indian Ocean during different IOD events, as well as differences in suitable habitat ranges and the spatial distribution of the species.}, }
@article {pmid40001948, year = {2025}, author = {Li, Z and Ji, Q and Yang, Y and Gao, Y and Xu, M and Guan, Y}, title = {Predicting the Potential Suitable Distribution of Albizia odoratissima (L. f.) Benth. Under Climate Change Based on the Biomod2 Model.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {40001948}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Albizia odoratissima (L. f.) Benth. is a highly valuable tree species, both economically and ecologically. It has great potential for development. To conserve, develop, and use its genetic resources sustainably, it is crucial to evaluate the potential habitat of A. odoratissima and identify the key environmental factors that affect its distribution. In this study, the Biomod2 model was used to predict the potential distribution of A. odoratissima in China, using 65 occurrence points and 11 environmental variables for both current and future climate scenarios. The distribution of A. odoratissima is mainly influenced by three temperature-related factors: bio4, bio8, and bio11. Our prediction shows that the suitable habitats for A. odoratissima are mostly located in several southern provinces of China, totaling 136.98 × 10[4] km[2]. Under different climate scenarios, the suitable habitat area is expected to shift northward in the future, although the highly suitable areas will remain relatively stable. These findings have important implications for the conservation, development, and sustainable utilization of A. odoratissima resources.}, }
@article {pmid40001936, year = {2025}, author = {Ren, J and Liu, Q and Ma, Y and Ji, Y and Xu, B and Xue, Y and Zhang, C}, title = {Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Four Trophically Dependent Fishery Species in the Northern China Seas Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {40001936}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2022YFD2401301//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major challenge affecting marine environments, making it essential to understand species distribution responses in both time and space for effective conservation strategies. Meanwhile, varying responses of species to climate change may lead to changes in interspecific relationships and future spatial distributions. This study assessed spatial and temporal distributions of four trophically dependent species of economic importance in the China seas, including largehead hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus), Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius), chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus), and anchovy (Engraulis japonicus). By incorporating fishery-dependent survey data and environmental variables, we developed a spatio-temporal mixed-effects model to analyze the distributional correlations among these species and predicted their distributions by the end of the century under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that the selected environmental factors influenced encounter probability and catch rates differently. Predictions for the end of the century under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and RCP8.5 suggested significant shifts in population densities, with species like T. lepturus and S. niphonius experiencing reduced densities and altered spatial patterns, while E. japonicus may benefit from climate change. The center of gravity for most species was projected to shift northward by the year 2050, with notable variations under RCP8.5. Additionally, spatial overlap among species was expected to decrease significantly by the year 2100, indicating increasing divergence in their distributions. This study underscores the effects of climate change on species habitat distribution and offers a scientific basis for future habitat protection.}, }
@article {pmid40001894, year = {2025}, author = {Yang, Y and Gao, W and Han, Y and Zhou, T}, title = {Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of North China Leopards (Panthera pardus japonensis) in Gansu Province Using MaxEnt Modeling.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {40001894}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {20JR10RA658//the Ziwuling Ecosystem Field Scientific Observation and Research Station project in Gansu Province/ ; 22JR10K22//Gansu Province Science Popularization Project/ ; XYBYZK2211//Longdong University Doctoral Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a profound impact on the phenology and growth of vegetation, which in turn influences the distribution and behavior of animal communities, including prey species. This dynamic shift significantly affects predator survival and activities. This study utilizes the MaxEnt model to explore how climate change impacts the distribution of the North China leopard (Panthera pardus japonensis) in the Ziwuling region of Gansu Province, China. As an endemic subspecies and apex predator, the North China leopard is vital for maintaining the structure and function of local ecosystems. Unfortunately, its population faces several threats, including habitat change, interspecies competition, and human encroachment, all of which are compounded by the ongoing effects of climate change. To assess the requirement and quality of habitat for this species, we conducted a population survey in the Ziwuling area from May 2020 to June 2022, utilizing 240 infrared cameras, which identified 46 active leopard sites. Using the MaxEnt model, we simulated habitat suitability and future distribution under different climate change scenarios based on nine environmental variables. Our results indicate that the population distribution of North China leopards is primarily influenced by the mean diurnal range (Bio2), with additional sensitivity to isothermal conditions (Bio3), temperature seasonality (Bio4), maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5), and annual temperature range (Bio7). We also evaluated habitat suitability across three socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) for three time intervals: the 2050s (2041-2060), the 2070s (2061-2080), and the 2090s (2081-2100). The findings suggest a significant decline in high-suitability habitat for North China leopards, while areas of medium and low suitability are projected to increase. Understanding these distributional changes in North China leopards will enhance our comprehension of the region's biogeography and inform conservation strategies aimed at mitigating the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39999736, year = {2025}, author = {Bakul, F and Heanoy, EZ and Antu, AD and Khandakar, F and Ahmed, S}, title = {Assessing the relationship between climate change anxiety, ecological coping, and pro-environmental behavior: Evidence from Gen Z Bangladeshis.}, journal = {Acta psychologica}, volume = {254}, number = {}, pages = {104847}, doi = {10.1016/j.actpsy.2025.104847}, pmid = {39999736}, issn = {1873-6297}, abstract = {Climate change has been speculated to cause frequent, long-lasting, and adverse weather events and would affect people's lives-and-well-being. Bangladesh, a low-lying delta is vulnerable to climate change, experiencing natural disasters each year with physical, mental, and economical impact on the population. The primary objective of the present study was to investigate the relationship between climate change anxiety (CCA), climate change-related coping strategies, and pro-environmental behavior (PEB) among Gen-Z Bangladeshis. The secondary objective was to assess CCA level and its associated coping approach among different disaster types witnessed by the respondents, and in disaster-affected vs. non-affected group. A total 557 participants between 18- and 25 years old participated in a cross-sectional survey including 13-items CCA Scale (CCAS), 15-items Ecological Coping Scale (ECS), demographics, and PEB questions. Results demonstrated that functional-impairment subscale and cognitive-impairment subscale of CCAS, MFC (meaning-focused coping), denial, and problem-focused coping (PFC) subscale of ECS, and PEBs were reliably correlated to varying degrees. Moreover, the disaster-affected group had significantly higher cognitive-impairment, functional-impairment, denial, and PFC use than non-affected group. Also, flood-witnessed people demonstrated more cognitive-impaired, functional-impaired, and used more MFC and PFC than storm and drought witnessed people. These findings highlight the awareness level of climate change impact among Gen-Z Bangladeshis, assisting professionals to formulate a tailored intervention.}, }
@article {pmid39998494, year = {2025}, author = {Ang, SP and Chia, JE}, title = {Climate change and cardiovascular risk.}, journal = {Current opinion in cardiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/HCO.0000000000001207}, pmid = {39998494}, issn = {1531-7080}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review explores the complex relationship between climate change and cardiovascular health. It examines the mechanisms through which climate change impacts cardiovascular risk, highlights recent findings on regional trends, and discusses mitigation strategies.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change significantly contributes to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality through mechanisms such as temperature extremes, air pollution, and food insecurity. Heatwaves increase risks of dehydration, electrolyte imbalance, and acute cardiovascular events, while cold spells exacerbate myocardial stress and pollution-related cardiovascular risks. Air pollution, including fine particulate matter (PM2.5), induces systemic inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and atherosclerosis. Emerging data highlight regional variations, with urbanization exacerbating risks in Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern populations, while extreme heat and cold challenge resilience in Europe and Latin America. Studies also link socioeconomic stress from climate-induced displacement and resource shortages to chronic cardiovascular conditions. Notably, urban greening and air quality regulations demonstrate potential for reducing cardiovascular risks.<br><br>SUMMARY: Climate change amplifies cardiovascular risks through diverse mechanisms, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations. Targeted strategies, including public health campaigns, sustainable urban planning, and technological innovations, can mitigate these risks. Advances in generative artificial intelligence and big data analytics offer opportunities to tailor interventions and enhance predictive modeling. A multidisciplinary approach integrating public health, environmental science, and clinical expertise is critical to addressing these challenges. Urgent action is required to mitigate the long-term cardiovascular impacts of climate change and foster resilient health systems globally.}, }
@article {pmid39997762, year = {2025}, author = {Humayun, M and Naseem, S and Goodman, RE and Ali, Z}, title = {Broussonetia papyrifera Pollen Metabolome Insights, Allergenicity, and Dispersal in Response to Climate Change Variables.}, journal = {Metabolites}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {39997762}, issn = {2218-1989}, support = {HEC-NRPU-8231//Higher Education Commision, Pakistan/ ; }, abstract = {Background/Objectives: Broussonetia papyrifera is a tree-producing allergenic pollen that grows in varied climatic conditions worldwide and causes pollen allergies in susceptible humans. This study aimed to investigate B. papyrifera pollen morphology, pollen metabolome, pollen allergenicity, and climate change's impact on the plant habitat suitability in the future. Methods: Tree pollen was collected in spring from different regions of Pakistan. Pollen samples were subjected to morphological analysis, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), and immunoblotting. Results: MaxEnt modeling predicted the tree's future-growth invasion into new regions. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and FTIR displayed regional differences in pollen morphology and metabolome correlated to shifts in climatic variables. LC-MS/MS analysis detected four lipids that can potentially stimulate inflammatory responses. Pollen protein immunoblotting studies identified a putative 15 kDa novel allergen and verified previously known 40 kDa, 33 kDa, and 10 kDa allergens. B. papyrifera MaxEnt modeling through ACCESS1.0 and CCSM4 under 2-greenhouse gas emissions scenarios {representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5} projected the tree invasion by the years 2050 and 2070. Conclusions: The study findings demonstrate that differences in climatic variables affect B. papyrifera-pollen metabolome and predict the habitat suitability of the tree for invasion in the future. The study results provide a model system for studying other species' pollen morphology, metabolome, future habitat suitability for plant invasion, and associated allergies in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39996366, year = {2025}, author = {Martén-Rodríguez, S and Cristobal-Pérez, EJ and de Santiago-Hernández, MH and Huerta-Ramos, G and Clemente-Martínez, L and Krupnick, G and Taylor, O and Lopezaraiza-Mikel, M and Balvino-Olvera, FJ and Sentíes-Aguilar, EM and Díaz-Infante, S and Aguirre Jaimes, A and Novais, S and Cortés-Flores, J and Lobo-Segura, J and Fuchs, EJ and Delgado-Carrillo, O and Ruiz-Mercado, I and Sáyago-Lorenzana, R and Pérez-Arroyo, K and Quesada, M}, title = {Untangling the Complexity of Climate Change Effects on Plant Reproductive Traits and Pollinators: A Systematic Global Synthesis.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {e70081}, pmid = {39996366}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2021-LN315810//Consejo Nacional de Humanidades, Ciencias y Tecnolog&#xed;as/ ; PAPIITIN226423//Direcci&#xf3;n General de Asuntos del Personal Acad&#xe9;mico, Universidad Nacional Aut&#xf3;noma de M&#xe9;xico/ ; PAPIIT IN224920//Direcci&#xf3;n General de Asuntos del Personal Acad&#xe9;mico, Universidad Nacional Aut&#xf3;noma de M&#xe9;xico/ ; PAPIITIN219021//Direcci&#xf3;n General de Asuntos del Personal Acad&#xe9;mico, Universidad Nacional Aut&#xf3;noma de M&#xe9;xico/ ; PAPIIITIN225924//Direcci&#xf3;n General de Asuntos del Personal Acad&#xe9;mico, Universidad Nacional Aut&#xf3;noma de M&#xe9;xico/ ; LaboratorioBinacionalUNAM-UCR//Universidad Nacional Aut&#xf3;noma de M/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Pollination ; Animals ; Reproduction ; Ecosystem ; Flowers/physiology ; Plants ; Insecta/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to affect the morphological, physiological, and life-history traits of plants and animal pollinators due to more frequent extreme heat and other altered weather patterns. This systematic literature review evaluates the effects of climate change on plant and pollinator traits on a global scale to determine how species responses vary among Earth's ecosystems, climate variables, taxonomic groups, and organismal traits. We compiled studies conducted under natural or experimental conditions (excluding agricultural species) and analyzed species response patterns for each trait (advance vs. delay or no change for phenology, decrease vs. increase or no change for other traits). Climate change has advanced plant and animal phenologies across most Earth's biomes, but evidence for temporal plant-pollinator mismatches remains limited. Flower production and plant reproductive success showed diverse responses to warming and low water availability in Alpine and Temperate ecosystems, and a trend for increased or neutral responses in Arctic and Tropical biomes. Nectar rewards mainly experienced negative effects under warming and drought across Alpine and Temperate biomes, but scent emissions increased or changed in composition. Life form (woody vs. nonwoody species) did not significantly influence trait response patterns to climate change. Pollinator fecundity, size, life-history, developmental, and physiological traits mostly declined with warming across biomes; however, animal abundance and resource acquisition traits showed diverse responses. This review identified critical knowledge gaps that limit our understanding of the impacts of climate change, particularly in tropical/subtropical biomes and southern latitudes. It also highlights the urgent need to sample across a greater range of plant families and pollinator taxa (e.g., beetles, wasps, vertebrates). The diversity of climate change effects should be assessed in the context of other anthropogenic drivers of global change that threaten critically important pollination interactions.}, }
@article {pmid39996198, year = {2025}, author = {Zavaleta-Monestel, E and Rojas-Chinchilla, C and Molina-Sojo, P and Murillo-Castro, MF and Rojas-Molina, JP and Martínez-Vargas, E}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on the Global Dynamics of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases: A Narrative Review.}, journal = {Cureus}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {e77972}, pmid = {39996198}, issn = {2168-8184}, abstract = {Climate change has significantly altered the dynamics of vector-borne infectious diseases, favoring their proliferation and geographic expansion. Factors such as rising temperatures, the frequency of extreme weather events, and uncontrolled urbanization have increased the incidence of diseases such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya, malaria, and Lyme disease, especially in vulnerable regions with limited infrastructure. This article presents a narrative review based on recent scientific literature (2018-2025) to assess the impact of climate change on vector distribution, co-infections, and control strategies. The evidence collected highlights how changing climate conditions, combined with socioeconomic, political, and demographic factors, exacerbate public health crises and complicate mitigation efforts. It is concluded that facing this challenge requires a comprehensive strategy that combines environmental management, technological innovation, epidemiological surveillance, and community educational programs, promoting a coordinated global response to reduce the associated risks.}, }
@article {pmid39995912, year = {2025}, author = {Yesuph, DS and Dalka, DD and Tadesse Baye, M}, title = {Underutilized and neglected crop species and their role in enhancing household food security amid climate change, Wolaita Zone, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e42345}, pmid = {39995912}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Neglected and underutilized crop species (NUCS) are those that have been largely overlooked in mainstream agriculture, despite their potential to contribute to food security, nutritional diversity, and resilience to climate change. These crops are often undervalued, resulting in limited research and underproduction, despite their significant potential for enhancing agricultural sustainability. The study addresses the need for crop and food diversification due to food insecurity, monotonous diets, and climate change. It focuses on NUCS, which are at risk of genetic loss or negative perceptions by growers and consumers. The research aimed to document these crops, assess farmers' opinion, identify challenges in their production and consumption, and analyse their contribution to household food security. Through a multi-stage sampling method, 246 households were interviewed, along with focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study documented 32 NUCS, which are used as supplements to staple crops and help mitigate food crises caused by climate change. However, producing and consuming these crops is often associated with poverty. The analysis revealed that 50 % of respondents have poor food consumption, 30 % are at the borderline, and only 20 % are at an acceptable level. Factors such as age, sex, farming experience, household size, and farm size significantly impact the production and consumption of these crops. The study concludes that proper documentation and seed multiplication by research and extension institutions are crucial for preserving these crops as climate change threatens staple crop production.}, }
@article {pmid39994006, year = {2025}, author = {Parker, ER and Rosenbach, M and Davis, MDP}, title = {The American Dermatological Association's 2025 Official Policy Statement on Climate Change: a bold commitment toward health equity and sustainability.}, journal = {Archives of dermatological research}, volume = {317}, number = {1}, pages = {480}, pmid = {39994006}, issn = {1432-069X}, }
@article {pmid39993203, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, SY and Zhang, YY and Yang, F and Zhou, C and Shen, HM and Wang, BB and Zeng, J and Reynolds, DR and Chapman, JW and Hu, G}, title = {Climate change is leading to an ecological trap in a migratory insect.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {9}, pages = {e2422595122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2422595122}, pmid = {39993203}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {2022YFD1400400//MOST | National Key Research and Development Program of China (NKPs)/ ; KJJQ2024015//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central University/ ; 31772155 and 31822043//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Animal Migration/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Moths/physiology ; China ; *Seasons ; *Wind ; Population Dynamics ; Oryza/parasitology ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Many insect migrants rely on favorable seasonal winds to carry out long-range latitudinal migrations. In East China, the annual advance and retreat of the East Asian summer monsoon produces ideal conditions for seasonal range expansion and contraction of many migratory crop pests. However, climate-induced changes in the strength, timing, and location of the monsoon are impacting wind systems which may, in turn, affect migration patterns. We investigated these questions in the rice leafroller (RLR) moth, a severe pest of rice that annually invades the Lower Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) of China from winter-breeding areas further south. Using a 24-y dataset of RLR population dynamics from 31 monitoring stations across Southeast China, we investigated the impact of changes in monsoon wind regimes on fall migration patterns of the pest. Historically, RLR emigrated from the LYRV to South China on the favorably directed winds produced by the retreat of the monsoon at the end of the outbreak season (from mid-August onward). We show that in the recent 12-y period, prevailing late-season winds remain northward for longer than previously, preventing locally produced moths from emigrating southward. Additionally, winds now facilitate mass late-season immigrations into the LYRV, creating an ecological trap, as immigrants do not have time to produce another generation. As a consequence of the changing wind patterns, pest pressure is declining, and climate-induced changes to the East Asian summer monsoon result in seasonal migration becoming a riskier strategy. Such changes in insect migration patterns have severe implications for the population dynamics of windborne migrants, ecosystem functioning, and pest management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39990961, year = {2025}, author = {Vattioni, S and Peter, T and Weber, R and Dykema, JA and Luo, B and Stenke, A and Feinberg, A and Sukhodolov, T and Keutsch, FN and Ammann, M and Vockenhuber, C and Döbeli, M and Kelesidis, GA and Chiodo, G}, title = {Injecting solid particles into the stratosphere could mitigate global warming but currently entails great uncertainties.}, journal = {Communications earth &amp; environment}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {132}, pmid = {39990961}, issn = {2662-4435}, abstract = {Stratospheric aerosol injection could mitigate harmful effects of global warming, but could have undesirable side effects, such as warming the stratosphere and depleting the ozone layer. We explore the potential benefits of solid alumina and calcite particles as alternatives to sulfate aerosols by using an experimentally informed aerosol-chemistry-climate model. Compared to sulfur dioxide, injection of solids reduces stratospheric warming by up to 70% and diffuse radiation by up to 40%, highlighting their potential benefits. Achieving -1 W m[-2] of radiative forcing would likely result in very small ozone changes, but sizable uncertainties remain. These arise from poorly understood heterogeneous chemical and microphysical processes, which, under less likely assumptions, could lead to larger global ozone column changes between -14% and +4%. Our work provides recommendations for improving the understanding of stratospheric aerosol injection using materials other than sulfur dioxide, and underscores the need for kinetic laboratory studies.}, }
@article {pmid39990578, year = {2025}, author = {Eskew, EA and Clancey, E and Singh, D and Situma, S and Nyakarahuka, L and Njenga, MK and Nuismer, SL}, title = {Projecting climate change impacts on inter-epidemic risk of rift valley fever across east africa.}, journal = {medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1101/2025.02.08.25321747}, pmid = {39990578}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease that causes sporadic, multi-country epidemics. However, RVF virus (RVFV) also circulates during inter-epidemic periods. There is limited understanding of how climate change will affect inter-epidemic RVF. Here, we project inter-epidemic RVF risk under future climate scenarios, focusing on the East African countries of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.<br><br>METHODS: We combined data on inter-epidemic RVF outbreaks and spatially-explicit predictor variables to build a predictive model of inter-epidemic RVF risk. We validated our model using RVFV serological data from humans. We then projected inter-epidemic RVF risk for three future time periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-208) under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370). Finally, we combined risk projections with human population projections to estimate the future population at risk of inter-epidemic RVF across the study region.<br><br>FINDINGS: Our model showed seasonality in inter-epidemic RVF, with risk peaking May-July following the long rains (March-May). Projections for future climate scenarios suggested that disease risk will increase January-March, with the present-day hotspots of east Kenya, southeast Tanzania, and southwest Uganda remaining high-risk. By 2061-2080, > 117 million people in the study region may be at risk from inter-epidemic RVF, a fourfold increase relative to the historical (1970-2000) estimate of &#x223c;25 million people.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Climate change will shift the inter-epidemic RVF risk landscape, with increasing short rains (October-December) driving increased risk January-March. Mitigating the future health impacts of RVF will require increased disease surveillance, prevention, and control effort in risk hotspots.<br><br>FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health.<br><br>RESEARCH IN CONTEXT: Evidence before this study: As for arboviruses generally, global climate change may shift the geographic distribution, timing, and severity of disease burden imposed by Rift Valley fever (RVF). To review the existing evidence for climate change impacts on RVF while adopting a specific geographic focus on East Africa, we searched Web of Science using the query string "ALL=(climate change) AND ALL=(Rift Valley fever) AND ALL=('East Africa' OR Kenya OR Tanzania OR Uganda)". Our search returned 39 results published between 2007 and 2024. We reviewed these contents to identify work with a substantive focus on understanding how future climate change will affect RVF (as opposed to investigations discussing any connection between climatic factors and RVF occurrence). We identified a total of ten papers that met this criterion: two were reviews, four analyzed mechanistic compartmental models, and four were empirical papers adopting other modeling and analysis methods. These studies highlighted the key role of precipitation and temperature in RVF epidemiology. Heavy precipitation is a well- known RVF driver given that rainfall can cause large amounts of surface water to become available for mosquito vector breeding. As such, expected wetting trends in East Africa under climate change scenarios could fuel increased frequency and severity of RVF. Temperature influences on RVF are underappreciated relative to precipitation, but climate-driven compartmental models emphasize that RVFV transmission is likely to be highest in areas that maintain optimal temperatures for mosquito development (&#x223c;22-26&#xb0;C).Added value of this study: Adopting a machine learning approach, we found that precipitation, goat density, soil silt, and elevation were among the most important predictors of inter-epidemic RVF. Our model, which was trained on monthly climatic data, showed seasonally-varying RVF risk, with risk peaking following the long rains season (March-May) and, to a lesser degree, following the short rains (October-December). We used our trained model, which was validated against serological data from humans, to project RVF risk for three future time periods (2021- 2040, 2041-2060, 2061-208) under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370) using 11 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). As a result, our multi-model projections of inter-epidemic RVF risk explicitly incorporate multiple sources of climate uncertainty. Projections suggested that RVF risk will increase January-March across the study region, particularly under high-emissions scenarios (i.e., SSP370). Although there are some anticipated changes in the spatial distribution of RVF risk, future risk hotspots largely mirror the present-day, with high risk in east Kenya, southeast Tanzania, and southwest Uganda.Implications of all the available evidence: Precipitation, the major driver of RVF, shapes both the temporal and spatial patterning of RVF risk across East Africa. Projections of future RVF risk are also strongly influenced by precipitation, with projected increases in disease risk January-March arising from projected increases in short rains (October-December) precipitation under future climate scenarios. Accurate projections of future precipitation, including a better understanding of potential changes to climatic linkages like the El Ni&#xf1;o-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, will enable meaningful prediction of future RVF risk that can inform disease interventions. Greater consideration of population-level host immunity and climate adaptation behaviors in East Africa (i.e., changing livestock management practices) would also allow for more realistic RVF risk projections.}, }
@article {pmid39990145, year = {2025}, author = {He, Z and Ali, H and Wu, J and Liu, Z and Wei, X and Zhuo, Z}, title = {Impact of climate change on the distribution of Isaria cicadae Miquel in China: predictions based on the MaxEnt model.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1509882}, pmid = {39990145}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Isaria cicadae, a historically valued edible and medicinal fungus in China, has been experiencing a critical decline in abundance due to ecological degradation and overexploitation. Understanding its potential distribution is essential for promoting sustainable harvesting practices.<br><br>METHODS: This study utilizes the MaxEnt model, combined with known distribution records and 22 environmental variables, to predict the potential distribution of I. cicadae under three representative emission scenarios (CMIP6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s.<br><br>RESULTS: The analysis identifies seven key environmental variables influencing the habitat suitability of I. cicadae: the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio09), the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio08), precipitation in the wettest month (bio16), the mean diurnal range (bio02), isothermality (bio03), elevation, and slope. Currently, I. cicadae is mainly found in the provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Fujian, Anhui, and Zhejiang, with Yunnan and Sichuan having the largest areas of high suitability at 25.79&#x202f;&#xd7;&#x202f;10[4]&#x202f;km[2] and 21.36&#x202f;&#xd7;&#x202f;10[4]&#x202f;km[2], respectively.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Jiangxi, Hunan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Fujian, and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region are identified as primary regions of high suitability. This study aims to further elucidate the impact of the environment on the distribution of I. cicadae from a geographical perspective and provide theoretical insights for the future cultivation and conservation strategies of this species.}, }
@article {pmid39988524, year = {2025}, author = {Bai, Y and Li, D and Wangchuk, S and Kettner, A and Zhao, Y and Deng, R and Liu, Y and Xiao, C and Ni, J and Cui, P}, title = {Flood complexity and rising exposure risk in High Mountain Asia under climate change.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2025.01.055}, pmid = {39988524}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid39988020, year = {2025}, author = {Bousema, T and van Asten, SAV and Ramjith, J and Buhl, MEJ and Tack, B and Whitfield, KE and Friedrich, AW and Kantele, A}, title = {Corrigendum to "Transforming ESCMID in a time of climate change: a call for sustainable conferencing" [Clin Microbiol Infect 30 (2024) 1347-1350].}, journal = {Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cmi.2025.02.023}, pmid = {39988020}, issn = {1469-0691}, }
@article {pmid39987871, year = {2025}, author = {Gerberding, K and Schirpke, U}, title = {Mapping the probability of forest fire hazard across the European Alps under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {377}, number = {}, pages = {124600}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124600}, pmid = {39987871}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Forest fires are increasing in frequency and intensity worldwide due to the anthropogenic climate change, threatening people's lives and causing huge economic and environmental damages. Recent forest fire events suggest that forest fires are also an urgent issue in the European Alps, but studies assessing the forest fire hazard under future climate scenarios are still rare. Thus, this study aims to analyse the impacts of climate change on the probability of forest fire hazard across the European Alps and surrounding areas. In specific, we (1) explain the current forest fire hazard based on a set of environmental and anthropogenic parameters, and (2) map the forest fire hazard under current and future conditions across the study area using geographically weighted regression. Our results suggest that the fire hazard mainly depends on the frequency of lightning strikes, the annual mean temperature, and the precipitation seasonality. Overall, our results indicate a future increase in forest fire hazard, which is already significant under the SSP126 (+15.5%), while highest increases occur under the SSP370 (30.6%) and the SSP585 (35.4%). However, while the impacts are less pronounced in already fire-prone regions in the southwestern regions in France, the probability of forest fire hazard will greatly increase in the Northern and Eastern regions. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to address these climate-related challenges by decision-making and management through fire-smart forest management. Nevertheless, further efforts are needed to overcome current limitations related to data availability and uncertainties in future scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid39987869, year = {2025}, author = {Andrista, S and Utami, NP and Hukom, V and Nielsen, M and Nielsen, R}, title = {Responses to climate change: Perceptions and adaptation among small-scale farmers in Indonesia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {377}, number = {}, pages = {124593}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124593}, pmid = {39987869}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change poses challenges to the global agricultural systems. The threat is more significant for small-scale farmers who constitute 40% of global and 29% of Indonesian farmers, playing a pivotal role in rural economies. Understanding how small-scale farmers adapt to climate change is crucial for developing targeted policy interventions because there is no "one size fits all" policy. This paper explores perceptions and driving forces of adaptation responses to climate change among small-scale farmers in Indonesia, while putting emphasis on the role of perceptions and socioeconomic factors at a local level. Employing both qualitative and quantitative research methods, the study analyzed perceptions and adaptation strategies among farmers in six districts representing Indonesia's varied climate patterns: Mentawai, West Tanjung Jabung, West Kotawaringin, Buton, Sikka, and Fakfak. The qualitative method involved in-depth interviews with 125 farmers to understand how climate variability, socioeconomic conditions, knowledge levels, technological resources, and institutional capabilities influence adaptation strategies such as crop diversification, land maintenance, and livelihood diversification. The quantitative method employed logistic regression to identify the driving factors behind these adaptation decisions. The findings reveal significant variations in climate change perceptions across different climatic regions, highlighting the considerable influence of gender, access to government support, and access to information on climate change adaptation strategies. Gender positively influences land management practices, where males are more likely to perform land maintenance activities compared to females. Government support and information access positively affect crop diversification, land management practices, and livelihood diversification. These insights suggest important policy implications for enhancing climate change adaptation strategies within communities which include region-specific climate adaptation plans, climate education programs, enhancing climate information accuracy and accessibility, gender-sensitive climate adaptation policies, and support for livelihood diversification.}, }
@article {pmid39987228, year = {2025}, author = {Benoit, L and R Lowe, S and Thomas, I and Amsalem, D and Martin, A}, title = {Climate change hopefulness, anxiety, and behavioral intentions among adolescents: randomized controlled trial of a brief "selfie" video intervention.}, journal = {Child and adolescent psychiatry and mental health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {13}, pmid = {39987228}, issn = {1753-2000}, support = {R25 MH077823/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; 5R25 MH077823/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {AIM: We tested the utility of showing "selfie" videos to increase adolescents' climate change hope, agency, and behavioral intentions, and to decrease their climate anxiety.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a randomized controlled trial among healthy volunteers, ages 14 to 18, enrolled through a crowdsourcing platform. We randomly assigned participants (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;1039) to view one of three 110-s-long video interventions featuring the same adolescent protagonist: positive (depicting an action-oriented stance); negative (defeatist stance); and control (neutral stance and unrelated content). The primary outcome was climate change hope; secondary outcomes were climate change anxiety, behavioral intention scales, and 100-point sliders about hopefulness and agency.<br><br>RESULTS: Viewing positive "selfie" videos proved effective among adolescents in increasing hopefulness and a sense of agency regarding climate change (<&#x2009;0.001), but not in decreasing climate anxiety or increasing intentions to engage in pro-environmental behaviors.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Brief video-based interventions featuring adolescent protagonists showed potential to increase hope and agency regarding climate change. While this single exposure did not directly affect anxiety levels or behavioral intentions, future research should examine whether repeated exposure and different "doses" of such interventions might influence these outcomes. The ubiquity and reach of social media hold promise to scale these inexpensive and specifically tailored interventions.}, }
@article {pmid39986317, year = {2025}, author = {Litchman, E}, title = {Climate change effects on the human gut microbiome: complex mechanisms and global inequities.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e134-e144}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00332-2}, pmid = {39986317}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Gastrointestinal Microbiome/physiology ; Diet ; }, abstract = {Ongoing global climate change is affecting all aspects of life on Earth, including human health. The gut microbiota is an important determinant of health in humans and other organisms, but how climate change affects gut microbiota remains largely unexplored. In this Review, I discuss how the changing climate might affect gut microbiota by altering the quantity and quality of food, as well as environmental microbiomes, such as enteric pathogen pressure and host physiology. Climate change-induced variability in food supply, shifts in elemental and macromolecular composition of plant and animal food, the proliferation of enteric pathogens, and the direct effects of high temperatures on gut physiology might alter gut microbiota in undesirable ways, increasing the health burden of climate change. The importance of different pathways might depend on many geographical, economic, and ecological factors. Microbiomes of populations in low-income countries might be disproportionally affected through greater climate change effects and poor mitigation on diet, pathogen burden, and host physiology.}, }
@article {pmid39985278, year = {2025}, author = {Hayes, C and Mitchell, A and Huerlimann, R and Jolly, J and Li, C and Booth, DJ and Ravasi, T and Nagelkerken, I}, title = {Stomach Microbiome Simplification of a Coral Reef Fish at Its Novel Cold-Range Edge Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e17704}, doi = {10.1111/mec.17704}, pmid = {39985278}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {DP170101722//Australian Research Council/ ; OIST Kick-start fund//Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University/ ; }, abstract = {Climate-driven range extensions of animals into higher latitudes are often facilitated by phenotypic plasticity. Modifications to habitat preference, behaviour and diet can increase the persistence of range-extending species in novel high-latitude ecosystems. These strategies may be influenced by changes in their gut and stomach microbial communities that are critical to host fitness and potentially adaptive plasticity. Yet, it remains unknown if the gut and stomach microbiome of range-extending species is plastic in their novel ranges to help facilitate these modifications. Here, we categorised stomach microbiome communities of a prevalent range-extending coral reef fish along a 2000-km latitudinal gradient in a global warming hotspot, extending from their tropical core range to their temperate cold range edge. At their cold range edge, the coral reef fish's stomach microbiome showed a 59% decrease in bacterial diversity and a 164% increase in the relative abundance of opportunistic bacteria (Vibrio) compared to their core range. Microbiome diversity was unaffected by fish body size, water temperature, physiology (cellular defence and damage) and habitat type (turf, barren, oyster, kelp and coral) across their range. The observed shifts in microbiome composition suggest dysbiosis and low plasticity of tropical range-extending fishes to novel environmental conditions (e.g., temperate prey and lower seawater temperature) at their novel range edges, which may increase their susceptibility to disease in temperate ecosystems. We conclude that fishes extending their ranges to higher latitudes under ocean warming can experience a simplification (i.e., reduced diversity) of their stomach microbiome, which could restrict their current rate of range extensions or establishment in temperate ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid39984516, year = {2025}, author = {Morozov, A and Ageel, A and Bates, A and Galyov, E}, title = {Modelling the effects of climate change on the interaction between bacteria and phages with a temperature-dependent lifecycle switch.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {6428}, pmid = {39984516}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {EP/W522326/1//Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Bacteriophages/physiology ; *Burkholderia pseudomallei/virology ; *Temperature ; Thailand ; Soil Microbiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Melioidosis/microbiology/transmission ; Lysogeny ; Agriculture/methods ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change and human activities alter the population dynamics of pathogenic bacteria in natural environments, increasing the risk of disease transmission. Among the key mechanisms of amplification of bacteria in the environment is the alteration of the natural control by their enemies, bacteriophages. Using mathematical modelling, we explore how climate change and implementation of certain agricultural practices affect interactions of bacteria with phage exhibiting condition-dependent lysogeny, where the type of phage infection lifecycle is determined by the ambient temperature. As a case study, we model alteration to the control of the pathogenic bacteria Burkholderia pseudomallei by its dominant phage. B. pseudomallei causes melioidosis, which is among the deadliest infections in Southeast Asia and across the tropics. We use historical records for UV radiation and temperature in Thailand covering the period 2009-2023 to assess the density of the phage-free pathogen, capable of causing infection. We also predict phage-pathogen dynamics for the period 2024-2044. We apply both non-spatial and spatial models to mimic B. pseudomallei population dynamics in the surface water of rice fields and in soil. Our models predict a drastic increase in pathogen density due to less efficient control by the phage which is caused by global warming. We also find that some of the current agricultural practices would enhance the risk of acquisition of melioidosis by altering densities of the pathogen in the environment.}, }
@article {pmid39984227, year = {2025}, author = {Maritano, S and Richiardi, L and Quaglia, S and Rusconi, F and Maule, M and Moirano, G}, title = {Exposure to climate change-related extreme events in the first year of life and occurrence of infant wheezing.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {196}, number = {}, pages = {109303}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2025.109303}, pmid = {39984227}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Infant ; *Respiratory Sounds ; Female ; Italy/epidemiology ; *Environmental Exposure/statistics &amp; numerical data/adverse effects ; Male ; Adult ; Droughts ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Wildfires ; Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Infant, Newborn ; Prevalence ; Pregnancy ; Cohort Studies ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme events, which will most impact younger generations. Within the NINFEA birth cohort, we investigated the relationship between exposure to such events during the first year of life and infant respiratory health.<br><br>METHODS: The NINFEA cohort study recruited pregnant women across 11&#xa0;years in Italy, allowing for climatic variability exploitation by birth place and time. We combined geocoded addresses with climate data, to derive children's cumulative exposure to the following extreme events during their first year: (i) heatwaves (i.e. 3&#xa0;+&#xa0;consecutive days, with maximum temperature&#xa0;>&#xa0;35&#xa0;&#xb0;C); (ii) days with wildfire PM2.5 >15&#xa0;&#x3bc;g/m3 and (iii) daily precipitation&#xa0;>&#xa0;100&#xa0;mm; (iv) months with exceptional drought. Logistic regression models estimated the relationship between each exposure and wheezing at 6-18&#xa0;months, adjusting for individual and contextual factors.<br><br>RESULTS: Wheezing prevalence in the cohort was 17.6%. The exposure to each additional heatwave in the first year of life increased wheezing risk by 16%, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.16 and a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) of 1.00;1.35. The OR for each month of extreme drought exposure was 1.10, 95%CI 0.95; 1.26. Results for wildfire PM2.5 were unclear with wider confidence intervals (OR for each high exposure day:1.36, 95% CI 0.85; 2.16). Wheezing was not associated with extreme precipitation.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to multiple extreme events, especially heatwaves, in the first year of life is associated with later infant respiratory health suggesting the need to implement climate change mitigation policies to protect long-term health.}, }
@article {pmid39983967, year = {2025}, author = {Chen, Z and Zhang, K and Peng, S and Tan, Y and Tong, J and Wang, B and Cai, H and Liu, F and Xiang, H}, title = {Climate change and air pollution can amplify vulnerability of glucose metabolism: The mediating effects of biological aging.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {121183}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.121183}, pmid = {39983967}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Climate change and air pollution pose significant global health threats, including impacts on diabetes risk; however, their long-term effects on insulin resistance (IR), a key determinant in diabetes pathophysiology, remain unclear. This study investigated whether exposure to heatwaves, temperature fluctuations, and warm-season ozone (O3) contributes to or exacerbates IR and explored the potential mediating role of biological aging. The study enrolled 6,901 participants and assessed both traditional and novel IR indicators: estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR), triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-c), metabolic score for IR (METS-IR), TyG-body mass index (TyG-BMI), TyG-waist circumference (TyG-WC), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), TyG-WHtR, and lipid accumulation product (LAP). Ordinary least squares regression models were applied to evaluate the long-lasting effects of heatwaves, temperature fluctuation, and warm-season O3 on IR, incorporating Huber-White robust standard errors for model stability. Causal mediation analysis was utilized to investigate the mediating effects of biological aging. We found that exposure to heatwaves and higher concentrations of warm-season O3 was associated with elevated IR levels, with males, smokers, drinkers, and low-income individuals being more vulnerable. Accelerated biological aging (including body age, metabolomic aging rate, etc.) could significant mediate the long-lasting effects of heatwaves and warm-season O3. Our findings suggest that climate change and air pollution could amplify the vulnerability of glucose metabolism, particularly in males, smokers, drinkers, and individuals with low-income. More importantly, our findings reveal the importance of mitigating biological aging to prevent IR in the future, as global diabetes prevalence escalates rapidly.}, }
@article {pmid39983579, year = {2025}, author = {Zhou, W and Chen, L and Cheng, W and Li, Y and Li, T and Smith, P and Cheng, K}, title = {Synergistic effects of climate change and nitrogen use on future nitric oxide emissions from China's croplands.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {377}, number = {}, pages = {124643}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124643}, pmid = {39983579}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Accurate quantification of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions can establish a scientific foundation for developing targeted strategies to mitigate emissions, thereby reducing their environmental impact. Using a database with 476 field measurements across China, a NO emission model was constructed by employing four machine learning algorithms including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Our validation with independent observational data revealed that the XGBoost model performed the best, achieving a R[2] of 0.67. The most important management, soil, and meteorological variables affecting the NO model were mineral nitrogen input, soil organic carbon content, and air temperature, respectively. This study also found that NO emissions exhibited nonlinear responses to different variables. NO emissions from China's farmland were estimated to be approximately 204.48 kt NO-N in 2020. By 2050, we predicted that NO emissions could increase by 2.9%-9.9% under various climate change scenarios, with the highest increment of 9.9% occurring under the RCP8.5 scenario. The southern agricultural region, which was particularly vulnerable to climate change, experienced the largest increase, ranging from approximately 15%-31%. The implementation of nitrogen management strategies that are adapted to future climate conditions could potentially reduce NO emissions by 15%-16.2%.}, }
@article {pmid39983574, year = {2025}, author = {Li, S and Nie, J and Liang, H and Zhou, G and Zhang, J and Liao, Y and Lu, Y and Tao, Y and Gao, S and Cao, W}, title = {Paddy fields can gain high productivity with low net global warming potential by utilizing green manure.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {377}, number = {}, pages = {124596}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124596}, pmid = {39983574}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The use of milk vetch as winter green manure is common in paddy fields across southern China. The greenhouse effect of co-utilizing milk vetch and rice straw has not yet been reported. In this study, we investigated net greenhouse gas emissions and related environmental factors over two years based on a long-term experiment. The results showed that the application of milk vetch increased rice yields and soil productivity, especially in combination with rice straw utilization. The application of milk vetch increased annual soil carbon sequestration rate by 492 kg/ha without rice straw returning and by 1115 kg/ha with rice straw returning. Compared to rice straw returning, cumulative CO2 and N2O emissions decreased by 3.5% and 16.9%, CH4 emissions increased by 13.3%, and the net global warming potential and greenhouse gas emission intensity reduced by 2135 kg CO2-eq/ha and 0.16 kg CO2-eq/grain yield in co-utilization of milk vetch and rice straw. Compared to winter fallow, the utilization of milk vetch did not significantly increase CH4 emissions, and reduced greenhouse gas emission intensity by 0.13 kg CO2-eq/grain yield. In conclusion, the application of milk vetch mitigated net greenhouse gas emissions by increasing soil carbon sequestration, making it an effective strategy for reducing the carbon footprint and potentially contributing to broader efforts toward carbon neutrality.}, }
@article {pmid39983493, year = {2025}, author = {Gebremedhn, H and Gebrewahid, Y and Hadgu, G and de Graaf, DC}, title = {Projecting the impacts of climate change on habitat distribution of Varroa destructor in Ethiopia using MaxEnt ecological modeling.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {968}, number = {}, pages = {178904}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178904}, pmid = {39983493}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Globally, Varroa destructor has been identified as a major drivers of honeybee colony losses. Climate change may worsen its effects by creating conducive conditions for its reproduction, although our understanding of their interaction remains limited. This study hypothesizes that climate change alters the suitable habitat for V. destructor in Ethiopia. It investigated its habitat distributions under current and future climate change scenarios (ssp126, ssp245, and ssp585) using the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) across the study area (1.16 million Km[2]), based on 62 occurrence points and 22 predictor variables (19 climatic, 2 topographic and 1 agroecological). Habitats were classified into five categories using natural breaks: unsuitable (<0.10), low suitability (0.10-0.28), moderate suitability (0.28-0.48), high suitability (0.48-0.69), and very high suitability (>0.69). The average AUC and TSS values were 0.908 and 0.7, respectively, indicating excellent model performance and strong agreement between observations and predictions. Under current climatic conditions, approximately 46.4 % of Ethiopia's land mass (538,046.35 km[2]) is classified as having low to very high suitability for V. destructor. The most significant factors influencing its distribution are annual temperature (43.2 %), agroecology (14.7 %), precipitation of the driest quarter (12.1 %) and annual precipitation (10.2 %). The annual temperature favorable for V. destructor incidence ranges from 5 °C to 16.5 °C, with a notable decline in incidence as temperatures increase to 30 °C. This aligns with the predicted high concentration of suitable habitats in the cool-humid and sub-humid agroecological zones. However, suitable habitats are expected to decline under future climatic conditions. Under ssp585, suitable habitat for V. destructor is projected to decline by 13.72 % by the 2030s and by 31.66 % by the 2090s. Overall, under current and future climate conditions, suitable habitats are concentrated in the cool-humid and sub-humid agroecological zones. Therefore, research and management interventions should target these areas to contain the mite's spread and impact.}, }
@article {pmid39982052, year = {2025}, author = {Parzniewski, S and Fackelmann, E and Ru, S and Breen, K and Wu, H}, title = {Climate Change-Related Risks of Gender-Based Violence (GBV) Among 2SLGBTQIA+ University Students and Emergent Adults: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {Journal of homosexuality}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-25}, doi = {10.1080/00918369.2025.2465417}, pmid = {39982052}, issn = {1540-3602}, abstract = {A scoping review was conducted using international databases, including Web of Science, Scopus, ProQuest, PubMed, Embase, and EBSCOhost, covering studies since 2009. Sixty-three articles focusing on gender-based violence (GBV) among 2SLGBTQIA+ university students and emergent adults were analyzed, incorporating climate change-related vulnerabilities that exacerbate GBV risks for marginalized students. Key factors were categorized into bullying, violence, and victimization; intersectionality; lack of awareness; disclosure of violence; and well-being and mental health implications. The findings reveal that discrimination, lack of support, and structural inequalities heighten vulnerability to GBV, compounded by climate-induced stressors such as displacement and resource scarcity. Practical implications include integrating intersectional approaches, tailored mental health support, climate resilience strategies, and anti-discrimination training into institutional policies, while public policy should strengthen safety nets, improve housing and healthcare access, and address compounded risks for marginalized groups during climate crises. Social work should prioritize culturally competent, trauma-informed interventions and foster community resilience. The study identifies critical research gaps, emphasizing the need to expand beyond US-focused studies to explore global intersections of GBV, climate change, and marginalized identities. These findings underscore the urgency of comprehensive strategies to mitigate GBV risks and enhance resilience for 2SLGBTQIA+ students.}, }
@article {pmid39981843, year = {2025}, author = {Zeng, Q and Hu, HW and Ge, AH and Xiong, C and Zhai, CC and Duan, GL and Han, LL and Huang, SY and Zhang, LM}, title = {Plant-microbiome interactions and their impacts on plant adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of integrative plant biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jipb.13863}, pmid = {39981843}, issn = {1744-7909}, support = {42277289//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 42207142//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2023YFD1700801//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {Plants have co-evolved with a wide range of microbial communities over hundreds of millions of years, this has drastically influenced their adaptation to biotic and abiotic stress. The rapid development of multi-omics approaches has greatly improved our understanding of the diversity, composition, and functions of plant microbiomes, but how global climate change affects the assembly of plant microbiomes and their roles in regulating host plant adaptation to changing environmental conditions is not fully known. In this review, we summarize recent advancements in the community assembly of plant microbiomes, and their responses to climate change factors such as elevated CO2 levels, warming, and drought. We further delineate the research trends and hotspots in plant-microbiome interactions in the context of climate change, and summarize the key mechanisms by which plant microbiomes influence plant adaptation to the changing climate. We propose that future research is urgently needed to unravel the impact of key plant genes and signal molecules modulated by climate change on microbial communities, to elucidate the evolutionary response of plant-microbe interactions at the community level, and to engineer synthetic microbial communities to mitigate the effects of climate change on plant fitness.}, }
@article {pmid39981658, year = {2025}, author = {Sheng, X and Zuo, X and Luo, L and Pang, G and Zhang, H and Chew, KW and Fang, D and Chen, B and Wu, M}, title = {Impact of Carbon and Nitrogen Assimilation in Sargassum fusiforme (Harvey) Setchell due to Marine Heatwave Under Global Warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {e70074}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.70074}, pmid = {39981658}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2018YFD0901500//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; N20220005//Wenzhou Science and Technology Plan Project/ ; ZX2024003-4//Wenzhou Science and Technology Plan Project/ ; 41706147//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2024YS005//Zhejiang Research Institute Special Project/ ; }, mesh = {*Sargassum/physiology/metabolism/growth &amp; development ; *Nitrogen/metabolism ; *Global Warming ; *Carbon/metabolism ; *Hot Temperature ; *Photosynthesis ; Hydrogen Peroxide/metabolism ; Malondialdehyde/metabolism/analysis ; Glutamate Dehydrogenase/metabolism ; Edible Seaweeds ; }, abstract = {Because of the rising global temperatures, Sargassum fusiforme (Harvey) Setchell, a commercially valuable seaweed, has experienced reduced yield and quality due to high temperatures from marine heatwave events. However, the mechanisms underlying the effects of heatwave stress on S. fusiforme remain unclear. In this study, the mechanisms of heatwave stress on the carbon and nitrogen assimilation processes in S. fusiforme were analyzed. These results indicated that heatwave stress, especially at 30°C for 12 days, significantly increased the levels of hydrogen peroxide (83%), malondialdehyde (84.7%), and relative conductivity (16.5%) in algae, which suggested an increase in algal damage. Morphologically, heatwave stress damaged the thylakoid structure and reduced the photosynthetic efficiency of algae and accumulated NADPH, ATP, and α-ketoglutarate significantly, resulting in decreased content of mannitol, the photosynthetic product. Additionally, physiological and transcriptomic results revealed that heatwave stress inhibited the rate of nitrate absorption rate and the activities of the most enzymes associated with nitrogen accumulation, while significantly upregulating glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH), suggesting a crucial role for GDH in S. fusiforme's adaptation to heatwave stress. In terms of amino acid composition, proline and alanine were the most sensitive to heatwave treatment. Moreover, under the natural heatwave environment simulation validation experiment, the algae showed the same physiological performance as under laboratory conditions. The results indicated that marine heatwave events increased oxidative damage in S. fusiforme and inhibited carbon and nitrogen absorption and assimilation, ultimately leading to negative effects on the growth of algae. Thus, in the context of rapid global warming exacerbating marine heatwave events, our study provides valuable insights for high-temperature-resistant breeding and ecological management in coastal aquaculture.}, }
@article {pmid39981598, year = {2025}, author = {Knight, K}, title = {Inside the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with Hans-Otto Pörtner.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {228}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.250158}, pmid = {39981598}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Animals ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; Germany ; Physiology/history ; Aquatic Organisms/physiology ; }, abstract = {Hans-Otto Pörtner is a leading animal physiologist based at the University of Bremen and the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany, who first published in Journal of Experimental Biology in 1986. Since then, he has specialised in the physiology of marine vertebrates and invertebrates, with an interest in the impact of hypoxia and temperature on survival, developing the concept of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance. It was Pörtner's work on the impact of rising CO2 levels on marine organisms that brought him to the attention of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) when governments were considering storing CO2 in the deep oceans. Contributing to the IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in 2005, Pörtner was part of the team that led to the prohibition of CO2 dumping in the oceans in 2007. This resulted in Pörtner being invited to contribute to the planning process for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Main Report, approved by the IPCC in 2014, which stated that human CO2 emissions are 'extremely likely' to be the dominant cause of global warming and its impacts. In 2015, Pörtner was voted co-chair of the IPCC Working Group II, assessing the planet's vulnerability to climate change, culminating in the Sixth Assessment Synthesis Report released in 2023. Pörtner is co-presenting the Climate and Biodiversity Plenary Lecture on 25 March 2025 at the Biologists @ 100 conference, hosted by The Company of Biologists. Here, he reflects on his career, his contribution to the IPCC and how to minimise our impact on the planet.}, }
@article {pmid39980578, year = {2025}, author = {Kõlves, K and Shaw-Williams, D and Krishnamoorthy, S and Bayliss, L and Hawgood, J and Reifels, L}, title = {From rising temperature to eco-emotions: exploring the impact of climate change on suicidality.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {55}, number = {}, pages = {101491}, pmid = {39980578}, issn = {2666-6065}, }
@article {pmid39979264, year = {2025}, author = {Barry, SM and Davies, GR and Forton, J and Williams, S and Thomas, R and Paxton, P and Moore, G and Davies, CR}, title = {Trends in low global warming potential inhaler prescribing: A UK-wide cohort comparison from 2018-2024.}, journal = {NPJ primary care respiratory medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {9}, pmid = {39979264}, issn = {2055-1010}, mesh = {Humans ; Retrospective Studies ; *Nebulizers and Vaporizers ; United Kingdom ; *Global Warming ; *Practice Patterns, Physicians'/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Asthma/drug therapy ; }, abstract = {We performed a retrospective cohort analysis comparing trends in low global warming potential (GWP) inhaler prescribing in primary care in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland between 2018 and 2024 using national prescribing data. There was little change in England, a reduction from 36.6-31.0% in Scotland, a reduction from 36.7-33.2% in Northern Ireland, and an increase from 30.8-41.1% in Wales. Only in Wales was there a simultaneous reduction in high GWP inhalers and an increase in low GWP inhalers. Over the time period of the study there has been a saving of 20,303 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in Wales.}, }
@article {pmid39977899, year = {2024}, author = {Jaffry, K and Karpenos, S and Lin, J and Matos, J and Jaffry, N and Islam, S and Mandava, K and Souayah, N}, title = {Climate Change Associated with Declining Clinical Outcomes in Myasthenia Gravis for US States with the Greatest Temperature Increase (P4-14.004).}, journal = {Neurology}, volume = {102}, number = {7_supplement_1}, pages = {6313}, doi = {10.1212/WNL.0000000000206388}, pmid = {39977899}, issn = {1526-632X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Myasthenia Gravis/epidemiology/mortality ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Retrospective Studies ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; United States/epidemiology ; Adult ; Global Warming ; Temperature ; Aged, 80 and over ; Disease Progression ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of climate change and global warming on myasthenia gravis (MG) mortality and exacerbation in US states with the greatest and least increase in temperature.<br><br>BACKGROUND: The effect of temperature changes on neuromuscular junction transmission in MG is well known. The effect of global warming inducing ambient temperature increase over time is less understood.<br><br>DESIGN/METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted from EPIC Electronic Medical Record System data. 5,538 MG patients were identified from 2007-2009 (P1 period) and 85,008 MG patients from 2020-2022 (P2 period). The 5 states (SHT: Alaska, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania) with the greatest temperature increase and 5 states (SLT: Oklahoma, North Dakota, Missouri, Kansas, Arkansas) with the lowest temperature increase between P1 and P2 were identified from the National Centers for Environmental Information database.<br><br>RESULTS: P2 patients had a higher mortality rate (P2/P1: 6.5%&#xb1;0.16% vs 1.7%&#xb1;0.33%; p<0.05), rate of MG exacerbation (P2/P1: 16.9%&#xb1;0.25% vs 12.2%&#xb1;0.86%; p<0.05) and were younger (P2/P1: 67&#xb1;0.12 years vs 71&#xb1;0.48 years; p<0.05) than P1 patients. There was no significant difference in average length of hospitalization between P1 and P2 (P2/P1:6.7&#xb1;0.18 days vs 6&#xb1;0.87 days). The average increase in temperature from P1 to P2 was 0.28&#xb0;C. In SLT, from P1 to P2, there was no significant increase in MG exacerbation rate (P2/P1:18.0%&#xb1;1.2% vs 16.5%&#xb1;4.7%). In SHT, from P1 to P2, there was a significant increase in the rate of MG exacerbation (P2/P1:18.5%&#xb1;0.52 vs 15.9%&#xb1;1.9%; p<0.05). The mean temperature increases were SHT: 0.86&#xb0;C&#xb1;0.13&#xb0;C and SLT: 0.14&#xb0;C&#xb1;0.07&#xb0;C.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Despite progress in MG management with the availability of more disease modifiers, there was a significant increase in MG mortality and in MG exacerbation rate in P2 compared to P1. Notably, this was greater in SHT than SLT. Work is in progress to adjust to socioeconomic and demographic factors, comorbid conditions, other climate factors, and MG disease modifiers. Disclosure: Mr. Jaffry has nothing to disclose. Mr. Karpenos has nothing to disclose. Mr. Lin has nothing to disclose. Mr. Matos has nothing to disclose. Miss Jaffry has nothing to disclose. Mr. Islam has nothing to disclose. Mr. Mandava has nothing to disclose. Dr. Souayah has received publishing royalties from a publication relating to health care.}, }
@article {pmid39976999, year = {2025}, author = {Lee, PS and Swain, DL and Johnson, R}, title = {Climate Change and Coccidioidomycosis.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2024.27274}, pmid = {39976999}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid39976755, year = {2025}, author = {Chowdhary, MA and Sharma, V and Gadri, HS and Roy, S and Bhardwaj, P}, title = {Spatio-temporal mapping and climate change impact on current and future expansion of P. roxburghii in the Himalayan Biodiversity Hotspot.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {3}, pages = {316}, pmid = {39976755}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; *Pinus ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {The global proliferation of Pinus species poses significant threats to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental stability. Pinus roxburghii, in particular, has demonstrated a strong potential to encroach upon the indigenous biodiversity of the Himalayan Biodiversity Hotspot (HBH), an area already vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This study utilized the MaxEnt model, chosen for its robust performance in species distribution modelling, to predict the geographical distribution and actual extent of P. roxburghii for the period 2001-2021 and project its future expansion under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP-126 and SSP-585) for 2050 and 2070. The model high predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.9) and metrics (κ and TSS > 0.7) demonstrate its reliability and strong performance. The results reveal a notable expansion of P. roxburghii across the HBH, with a 1.61% spatio-temporal increase (11,142.16 km[2]) and a 0.65% rise in habitat suitability (4478.47 km[2]) under future scenarios. Key bioclimatic variables influencing its distribution include BIO6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month) and BIO17 (precipitation of the driest quarter), contributing 69.54% and 85.28% to the model under current and future scenarios, respectively. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted adaptive management strategies, such as early detection systems and habitat restoration initiatives, to mitigate the encroachment of P. roxburghii and safeguard native biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid39975822, year = {2025}, author = {Abdul-Nabi, SS and Al Karaki, V and Khalil, A and El Zahran, T}, title = {Climate change and its environmental and health effects from 2015 to 2022: A scoping review.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e42315}, pmid = {39975822}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The rise in environmental pollutants has become a pressing global concern of international magnitude. Substantial evidence now demonstrates that escalating global temperatures and rising sea levels might exacerbate release of chemical pollutants into the environment which amplifies their toxicity. Existing research underscores the linkage between climate change and air pollution as driving forces, with increased mortality and morbidity.<br><br>PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review explores the reciprocal relationship between climate change and its impact on health, as well as the environment. We conducted an in-depth analysis of all relevant published studies, encompassing studies conducted across various regions worldwide, including the Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office (EMRO)[1] region.<br><br>SUMMARY: The environmental consequences of climate change have widespread impacts on various health systems and populations. Knowledge gaps remain in understanding the full scope of climate change effects, particularly through environmental pollution. The findings of this review highlight the need for global strategies to mitigate diverse health risks to protect from the growing threats of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39974856, year = {2025}, author = {Iqbal, B and Alabbosh, KF and Jalal, A and Suboktagin, S and Elboughdiri, N}, title = {Sustainable food systems transformation in the face of climate change: strategies, challenges, and policy implications.}, journal = {Food science and biotechnology}, volume = {34}, number = {4}, pages = {871-883}, pmid = {39974856}, issn = {2092-6456}, abstract = {Climate change-induced disruptions to agricultural systems and other socio-economic and geopolitical factors threaten food supply availability, access, and stability. The paper examines the crisis and explores the strategies, challenges, and policy implications of transforming food systems towards sustainability. It highlights the undeniable impact of climate change on agriculture, discussing how it affects crop yields and contributes to the increased frequency of extreme weather events. The paper discusses the extent and causes of food loss and waste in the supply chain, presents various technologies and initiatives to reduce it, and highlights models for efficient food distribution and surplus food redistribution. Lastly, it shifts its attention to food policy and governance, assessing the effectiveness of national and international policies in addressing food security and climate change. Conclusively, it underscores the pressing need for a holistic and sustainable approach to food systems transformation in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39974556, year = {2025}, author = {Sengupta, P and Dutta, S}, title = {Eco-fertility: examining the climate change-total fertility rate nexus in the context of sustainable developmental goals in a systematic review approach.}, journal = {Medical review (2021)}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {35-43}, pmid = {39974556}, issn = {2749-9642}, abstract = {Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are paramount as the global community confronts the ramifications of climate alterations, especially its implications on population dynamics. Initial studies suggest an intricate relationship between environmental determinants and reproductive choices. This systematic review elucidates the complex interplay between climate-related challenges and observed global fertility rate variations. A comprehensive search and analysis of literature published in the last 10 years (2013-2023), available in the PubMed database, delineates the relationship between environmental changes and fertility patterns in both human and animal populations. The review highlighted significant effects of climatic fluctuations on reproductive health, manifested as either adaptive or maladaptive responses to environmental stressors. This relationship not only influences population trajectories but may also have complications for the SDGs, specifically those pertaining to health, well-being, and gender equality. The study emphasizes the importance of intertwining demographic insights with ecological considerations. A deeper understanding of the nexus between climate and fertility can augment strategies aimed at global sustainability. The synthesized evidence underscores the urgency for further research, which seeks to seamlessly incorporate eco-fertility perspectives into wider climate and sustainability discussions.}, }
@article {pmid39974337, year = {2025}, author = {Niyi-Odumosu, F and Ozoh, OB and Ope, VO and Ale, BM and Akinnola, O and Iseolorunkanmi, A and Adeloye, D}, title = {Exploring the impact of climate change on respiratory health in Nigeria: a scoping review of current research, government policies and programs.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {178}, number = {3}, pages = {35}, pmid = {39974337}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change significantly impacts health globally, especially in densely populated, rapidly industrialising and ecologically diverse countries like Nigeria. We analysed climate change policies, studies, programs, and events at the national and subnational levels in Nigeria and explored their effects on public and respiratory health. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMAScR) checklist, we searched PubMed, African Journals Online (AJoL), Google Scholar and government data repositories on January 10, 2024. We synthesised results using an adapted sector-level framework based on the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Our searches returned 262 items, of which 32, including research studies, reports and grey documents, were retained for synthesis. Although some policies and programmes, like the Climate Change Act and Nigerian Climate and Health Observatory, exist, implementation is limited across many settings. Key reported respiratory pollutants in Nigeria include particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), gaseous emissions (CO, SO2, NOx), agricultural by-products (NH3, H2S), greenhouse gases (CH4, CO2), and microbial contaminants, which collectively increase the risk of respiratory inflammation, infections, and exacerbations of chronic respiratory symptoms and diseases. Our findings underscore a clear link between climate change and worsening respiratory health in many Nigerian settings. The current policies and programmes' have limited impact, calling for comprehensive reforms, including improved enforcement and targeted action against major pollution sources, recognition of environmental rights, and stronger public health initiatives and community action.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-03880-0.}, }
@article {pmid39973764, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, M and Zhang, Y}, title = {Impact of climate change on dengue fever: a bibliometric analysis.}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.4081/gh.2025.1301}, pmid = {39973764}, issn = {1970-7096}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; *Bibliometrics ; Humans ; Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; Aedes ; Animals ; Global Health ; }, abstract = {Dengue is the most widespread and fastest-growing vectorborne disease worldwide. We employed bibliometric analysis to provide an overview of research on the impact of climate change on dengue fever focusing on both global and Southeast Asian regions. Using the Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC) database, we reviewed studies on the impact of climate change on dengue fever between 1974 and 2022 taking into account study locations and international collaboration. The VOS viewer software (https://www.vosviewer.com/) and the Bibliometrix R package (https://www.bibliometrix.org/) were used to visualise country networks and keywords. We collected 2,055 relevant articles published globally between 1974 and 2022 on the impact of climate change on dengue fever, 449 of which published in Southeast Asia. Peaking in 2021, the overall number of publications showed a strong increase in the period 2000-2022. The United States had the highest number of publications (n=558) followed by China (261) and Brazil (228). Among the Southeast Asian countries, Thailand had most publications (n=123). Global and Southeast Asian concerns about the impact of climate change on dengue fever are essentially the same. They all emphasise the relationship between temperature and other climatic conditions on the one hand and the transmission of Aedes aegypti on the other. A significant positive correlation exists between the number of national publications and socioeconomic index and between international collaboration and scientific productivity in the field. Our study demonstrates the current state of research on the impact of climate change on dengue and provides a comparative analysis of the Southeast Asian region. Publication output in Southeast Asia lags behind that of major countries worldwide, and various strategies should be implemented to improve international collaboration, such as increasing the number of international collaborative projects and providing academic resources and research platforms for researchers.}, }
@article {pmid39972015, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, Y and Hu, J and Wang, C and Wan, Y and Ji, M and Ma, F and Lu, Y}, title = {Author Correction: Estimating global geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of Ammannia coccinea under climate change based on Biomod2.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {6090}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-025-90521-2}, pmid = {39972015}, issn = {2045-2322}, }
@article {pmid39970537, year = {2025}, author = {Roopnarine, R and Webb, TL and Riles, A and Tucker, C and Watson, B and Chun, R}, title = {Can interprofessional education that embeds One Health be an effective platform for climate change education in veterinary and medical curricula?.}, journal = {American journal of veterinary research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-8}, doi = {10.2460/ajvr.24.12.0385}, pmid = {39970537}, issn = {1943-5681}, abstract = {Climate change has been recognized as a significant public health threat, and education is needed to allow health professionals to better care for their patients affected by climate-related conditions. Medical students concerned about their lack of preparedness to respond to its effects on patient health, created the Planetary Health Report Card, calling for the inclusion of planetary health education into curricula. Veterinary students similarly express their lack of readiness in this area for practice. In alignment with the United Nations, the American Medical Association (AMA) and AVMA, promulgate educators' development of climate education to prepare graduates for future practice. Implementing interprofessional education is a critical paradigm for closing the gaps on climate education in these curricula. Incorporating One Health related competencies into an interprofessional education curriculum would prepare future graduates to effectively respond to this threat.}, }
@article {pmid39970380, year = {2025}, author = {Echendu, AJ}, title = {It has not always been like this: public opinion of climate change in Port Harcourt, Nigeria.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {314-325}, doi = {10.1093/inteam/vjae022}, pmid = {39970380}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Nigeria ; *Public Opinion ; Humans ; Floods ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting weather and climate extremes globally. It has been a subject of debate and controversy leading to the emergence of climate deniers and skeptics. It is a subject of great relevance because of its wide-ranging impacts on socioeconomic and natural systems. This necessitates long-term strategic decisions and response measures. There is a gap between the general public and the scientific community in terms of their awareness, understanding, and perception of climate change. Responding to the global climate crisis requires different actions at various levels, including individual. However, the manner in which the public and societies at large act in response to climate change is dependent on their perceptions and beliefs of climate change. This makes understanding the common opinion on climate change salient. There is an overrepresentation of climate change public opinion research in western nations in comparison with developing countries. This work thus contributes to filling this gap by engaging with members of the public who experience flooding in Nigeria to understand their perceptions and opinions on climate change. Qualitative research was carried out with focus group interviews and semistructured one-on-one interviews as primary data collection tools. The research findings indicate that there is a consensus that climate change is occurring, as evidenced by changes in weather patterns over the years. However, there were differences in opinion among the participants on how it was presenting. This work thus yields key insights on the level of awareness of the climate phenomena in a developing African city. Knowledge of climate change can encourage the public to engage more with the climate crisis, act in their own way, and even mobilize to influence and support government policies towards mitigating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39969169, year = {2025}, author = {Schmidt, DA and Russello, MA}, title = {Genomic Vulnerability of a Sentinel Mammal Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e17688}, doi = {10.1111/mec.17688}, pmid = {39969169}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {RGPIN-2019-04621//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to biodiversity, particularly in alpine ecosystems where species have already undergone elevational range shifts. Genomics can be used to estimate the adaptive potential of species, as well as the shift in adaptive genomic composition necessary for populations to adjust to climate change (e.g., genomic offset). Here, we investigated patterns of climate-mediated adaptive genetic variation and predicted the degree of genomic offset under multiple climate change scenarios for a sentinel alpine mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We collected genome-wide data (29,709 SNPs) from 363 individuals spanning the entire range in western North America and employed genotype-environment association analyses to identify 924 robust outlier SNPs, several of which were linked to genes previously associated with high elevation and hypoxia responses in various pika species (Ochotonidae). Adaptive genomic variation was most strongly influenced by mean warmest month temperature, followed by precipitation of the coldest quarter. Spatial patterns of genomic offset were heterogeneous, significantly predicted by levels of adaptive genetic variation, elevation and latitude. Sites within the Northern Rocky Mountains exhibited the highest genomic offset under projected climate change despite possessing high levels of adaptive genetic variation. As such, while our study provides an example of how genomic data can be used to explore the potential consequences of climate change, it further highlights the need for careful consideration of genomic offset values within their proper ecological context.}, }
@article {pmid39968629, year = {2025}, author = {Bas, M and Ouled-Cheikh, J and Fuster-Alonso, A and Julià, L and March, D and Ramírez, F and Cardona, L and Coll, M}, title = {Potential Spatial Mismatches Between Marine Predators and Their Prey in the Southern Hemisphere in Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {e70080}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.70080}, pmid = {39968629}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2021 SGR 00435//Ag&#xe8;ncia de Gesti&#xf3; d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca/ ; CNS2022-135631//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; FJC2020-043762-I//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; PID2020-118097RB-I00//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; PID2021-124831OA-I00//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; PRE2021-099287//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; RYC2020-030078-I//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; CIDEGENT/2021/058//Generalitat Valenciana/ ; //Universitat de Barcelona/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; *Food Chain ; *Predatory Behavior ; *Ecosystem ; New Zealand ; Australia ; Fishes/physiology ; South America ; Aquatic Organisms/physiology ; Crustacea/physiology ; Spheniscidae/physiology ; Africa, Southern ; }, abstract = {Global change is rapidly reshaping species' habitat suitability ranges, hence leading to significant shifts in the distribution of marine life. Contrasting distributional responses among species can alter the spatial overlap between predators and prey, potentially disrupting trophic interactions and affecting food web dynamics. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in the spatial overlap of habitat suitability ranges for trophically related species, including crustaceans, fish, penguins, and pinnipeds across 12 Large Marine Ecosystems from the Southern Hemisphere, merged into three primary regions: South America, Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand. To this aim, we first use Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) to hindcast and project species-specific changes in suitable habitat from 1850 to 2100 under two future climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low climate forcing) and SSP5-8.5 (high climate forcing). We then analyze changes in species habitat suitability and potential predator-prey spatial overlaps. Findings reveal that marine species generally exhibit changes in their suitable habitats, with pronounced shifts towards higher latitudes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, contrasting trends emerge among predators across functional groups and regions of South America, Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand. These variations highlight the need for species and regional-specific management responses. We also project contrasting spatial mismatches between predators and prey: predators experiencing declines in suitable habitat tend to exhibit greater overlap with their prey in future scenarios, whereas those with expanding suitable habitat show reduced spatial overlap with their prey. This study provides valuable insights that can inform spatial management strategies in response to climate change and illustrate how climate change may weaken species' ability to adapt to climate-driven environmental changes due to trophic disruptions.}, }
@article {pmid39968228, year = {2025}, author = {Colombi, G and Vineis, P}, title = {Editorial: The relationship between health and environment under the lens of climate change: insights for policy makers.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1548553}, pmid = {39968228}, issn = {2296-2565}, }
@article {pmid39968133, year = {2025}, author = {Ardie, SW and Nugroho, RB and Dirpan, A and Anshori, MF}, title = {Foxtail millet research in supporting climate change resilience efforts: Bibliometric analysis and focused literature review.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e42348}, pmid = {39968133}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Foxtail millet is part of the millet group but is less popular than sorghum and pearl millet. Nevertheless, the potential of this plant is considered promising for diversifying food nutrition, health products, feed, biofuel, and several other uses, as indicated by various publications, including review articles. However, studies, analyses, and development trends of foxtail millet are lacking, and the current development status of foxtail millet and future projections cannot be systematically identified. Bibliometric analysis offers a method to clarify the current state of the development and interaction of a study topic for systematic analysis. Therefore, this study conducted a bibliometric review to examine the development, interaction, and projections of foxtail millet research regarding publication trends, countries involved, and keywords. Publications related to foxtail millet were first mined from the Scopus database and analyzed using Biblioshiny R Studio and VOSviewer software, with 2091 Scopus documents identified as being associated with the topic of foxtail millet. A significant development occurred in 2012 when the entire foxtail millet genome was explored. The main countries that focus on developing foxtail millet are China and India. The development of foxtail millet is focused on optimizing omics-based approaches to support the use of its potential, especially in research efforts involving climate change tolerance systems. Therefore, innovation, exploration, and potential use of foxtail millet in the future will continue to develop along with submarginal land and public health problems, including in Indonesia, which has the fourth largest population globally.}, }
@article {pmid39967323, year = {2025}, author = {Van der Meersch, V and Armstrong, E and Mouillot, F and Duputié, A and Davi, H and Saltré, F and Chuine, I}, title = {Paleorecords Reveal Biological Mechanisms Crucial for Reliable Species Range Shift Projections Amid Rapid Climate Change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {e70080}, doi = {10.1111/ele.70080}, pmid = {39967323}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {//Universit&#xe9; de Montpellier/ ; 101003890//European Union's Horizon 2020/ ; CE230100009//Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Europe ; *Models, Biological ; Trees/physiology ; Forests ; Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {The recent acceleration of global climate warming has created an urgent need for reliable projections of species distributions, widely used by natural resource managers. Such projections have been mainly produced by species distribution models with little information on their performances in novel climates. Here, we hindcast the range shifts of forest tree species across Europe over the last 12,000 years to compare the reliability of three different types of models. We show that in the most climatically dissimilar conditions, process-explicit models (PEMs) tend to outperform correlative species distribution models (CSDMs), and that PEM projections are likely to be more reliable than those made with CSDMs by the end of the 21st century. These results demonstrate for the first time the often promoted albeit so far untested idea that explicit description of mechanisms confers model robustness, and highlight a new avenue to increase model projection reliability in the future.}, }
@article {pmid39966449, year = {2025}, author = {Van de Vuurst, P and Gohlke, JM and Escobar, LE}, title = {Future climate change and the distributional shift of the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {5989}, pmid = {39966449}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2116748//National Science Foundation Human-Environment and Geographical Sciences Program/ ; 2116748//National Science Foundation Human-Environment and Geographical Sciences Program/ ; 2235295//National Science Foundation CAREER/ ; 2235295//National Science Foundation CAREER/ ; K01AI168452//National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases/ ; K01AI168452//National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Chiroptera/virology ; *Climate Change ; *Rabies virus ; *Rabies/epidemiology/transmission/veterinary ; Disease Reservoirs/virology ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Interactions among humans, livestock, and wildlife within disturbed ecosystems, such as those impacted by climate change, can facilitate pathogen spillover transmission and increase disease emergence risks. The study of future climate change impacts on the distribution of free-ranging bats is therefore relevant for forecasting potential disease burden. This study used current and future climate data and historic occurrence locations of the vampire bat species Desmodus rotundus, a reservoir of the rabies virus to assess the potential impacts of climate change on disease reservoir distribution. Analyses included a comprehensive comparison of different climate change periods, carbon emission scenarios, and global circulation models (GCMs) on final model outputs. Models revealed that, although climatic scenarios and GCMs used have a significant influence on model outputs, there was a consistent signal of range expansion across the future climates analyzed. Areas suitable for D. rotundus range expansion include the southern United States and south-central portions of Argentina and Chile. Certain areas in the Amazon Rainforest, which currently rests at the geographic center of D. rotundus' range, may become climatically unsuitable for this species within the context of niche conservatism. While the impacts of rabies virus transmitted by D. rotundus on livestock are well known, an expansion of D. rotundus into novel areas may impact new mammalian species and livestock with unexpected consequences. Some areas in the Americas may benefit from an assessment of their preparedness to deal with an expected D. rotundus range expansion.}, }
@article {pmid39966212, year = {2025}, author = {Dohmeier, D and Sen, A and Cavecchi, A and Matos, J and Lostritto, R and Nagao, L}, title = {Materials Compatibility Considerations for the Transition to Low Global Warming Potential Propellants for Pressurized Metered Dose Inhalers.}, journal = {AAPS PharmSciTech}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {65}, pmid = {39966212}, issn = {1530-9932}, mesh = {*Metered Dose Inhalers ; *Aerosol Propellants/chemistry ; Humans ; Global Warming ; Aerosols ; Administration, Inhalation ; Chlorofluorocarbons/chemistry ; Asthma/drug therapy ; }, abstract = {Pressurized metered dose inhalers (pMDI) are a vital therapy for the treatment of lung diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In pMDI, the propellants used to deliver the drug to the lungs are hydrofluorocarbons (HFC). However, the current HFCs in use have large global warming potential (GWP). In order to reduce or eliminate the use of propellants with large global warming potential, efforts are underway within the pharmaceutical industry to transition to the use of low GWP propellants in pMDI, while maintaining their effectiveness in treating disease. The current switch from higher GWP propellants mirrors the switch from chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) propellants to HFCs undertaken in the 1990's, which was driven by ozone depletion concerns. In this paper, the International Pharmaceutical Aerosol Consortium on Regulation and Science (IPAC-RS) discusses aspects of the switch to low GWP propellants from the perspective of materials compatibility of pMDI components with low GWP propellants. Leveraging the learnings and advances in pMDI component materials implemented following the switch from CFCs, industry is well positioned to make the change. This paper describes the utility of the low GWP propellants being developed for use in pMDI and the learnings from the previous transition that are being leveraged by industry. The current state of development will be described, including a review of available literature supporting the transition to low GWP propellants.}, }
@article {pmid39966149, year = {2025}, author = {Walkowiak, MP and Bandurski, K and Walkowiak, J and Walkowiak, D}, title = {Outpacing climate change: adaptation to heatwaves in Europe.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39966149}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {Current predictions of climate change impacts rely on conservative assumptions about a lack of adaptation, projecting significantly increased heatwave mortality. However, long-term studies have shown a decline in actual heatwave deaths, raising questions about the underlying mechanisms. We combined Eurostat weekly mortality data (baseline extracted via Seasonal-Trend decomposition by Loess and smoothed through Principal Component Analysis dimension reduction and reconstruction) with economic indicators, Copernicus temperature data since 1950, and ENTSO-E electricity demand data. Panel regression analyzed mortality patterns during weeks with daily temperatures exceeding 22 °C for 2000-2022. During the analyzed period, Europe outpaced climate change, with the capacity to tolerate an additional 1 °C rise every 17.9 years [95% CI 15.3-22.7]. Extending the temperature indicators beyond the prior 3 years did not enhance predictive accuracy, suggesting swift adaptations and historical climate lacked any predictive value. Additionally, increasing economic output, likely driven by infrastructural improvements, especially greater affordability of air conditioning, enabled tolerating each additional 1 °C due to a per capita GDP increase of 19.7 thousand euros [95% CI 14.6-30.3]. Consistently, the increase in cooling energy demand was the strongest in eastern Europe. The findings shed light on the mechanisms driving the observed reduction in heatwave mortality despite the warming climate trend, offering a more plausible basis for extrapolation than assuming a lack of adaptation. The model emphasizes the role of long term economic growth and addressing energy poverty.}, }
@article {pmid39965495, year = {2025}, author = {Fan, W and Luo, Y}, title = {Conservation methods for Trollius mountain flowers in Xinjiang, China under climate change: Habitat networks construction based on habitat suitability and protected areas optimization response.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {376}, number = {}, pages = {124519}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124519}, pmid = {39965495}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Mountain flower species tend to be more climate-sensitive. Trollius is a mountain flower species of ecological and cultural significance in Xinjiang, China, but climate change has caused habitat fragmentation, which is the dominant threat to their survival. However, the precise mechanism of how climate change affects their distribution and the extent of habitat fragmentation remains unclear. Accordingly, Modeling was employed to obtain Trollius's habitat changes and fragmentation indices under different periods and climate scenarios. Based on this, the study identified potential corridors, evaluated habitat network patterns, and performed spatial optimization. The results demonstrated that Trollius species don't have the same climate adaptation ability. T. asiaticus exhibits exceptional climate adaptation with habitat expansion and minimal fragmentation, but the other species' habitat area and connectivity index dropped markedly. The Tien Shan and Altay Mountains represent the primary habitat sources of Trollius, while the Western Junggar Mountains serve as a crucial stepping stone. Habitat clusters are predominantly connected by short but efficient primary corridors, which showed stability when facing climatic fluctuation. Highly centralized "source-corridor" systems require enhanced identifying of pinch points and removing barrier points to ensure high connectivity. Furthermore, the protected areas system is inadequate in its protective function, with less than 7% of habitat areas covered by nature reserves and less than 15% covered by nature parks. The findings can provide scientific basis and methodological support for regional climate strategy making on biodiversity conservation and the optimization of protected areas.}, }
@article {pmid39965227, year = {2025}, author = {Stark, KA and Clegg, T and Bernhardt, JR and Grainger, TN and Kempes, CP and Savage, V and O'Connor, MI and Pawar, S}, title = {Toward a More Dynamic Metabolic Theory of Ecology to Predict Climate Change Effects on Biological Systems.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {205}, number = {3}, pages = {285-305}, doi = {10.1086/733197}, pmid = {39965227}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; Ecosystem ; Ecology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {AbstractThe metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) aims to link biophysical constraints on individual metabolic rates to the emergence of patterns at the population and ecosystem scales. Because MTE links temperature's kinetic effects on individual metabolism to ecological processes at higher levels of organization, it holds great potential to mechanistically predict how complex ecological systems respond to warming and increased temperature fluctuations under climate change. To scale up from individuals to ecosystems, applications of classical MTE implicitly assume that focusing on steady-state dynamics and averaging temperature responses across individuals and populations adequately capture the dominant attributes of biological systems. However, in the context of climate change, frequent perturbations from steady state and rapid changes in thermal performance curves via plasticity and evolution are almost guaranteed. Here, we explain how some of the assumptions made when applying MTE's simplest canonical expression can lead to blind spots in understanding how temperature change affects biological systems and how this presents an opportunity for formal expansion of the theory. We review existing advances in this direction and provide a decision tree for identifying when dynamic modifications to classical MTE are needed for certain research questions. We conclude with empirical and theoretical challenges to be addressed in a more dynamic MTE for understanding biological change in an increasingly uncertain world.}, }
@article {pmid39963731, year = {2025}, author = {Cohen-Rengifo, M and Noel, C and Ytteborg, E and Bégout, ML and Lazado, CC and Le Blay, G and Hervio-Heath, D}, title = {The nasal microbiota of two marine fish species: diversity, community structure, variability and first insights into the impacts of climate change-related stressors.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsec/fiaf018}, pmid = {39963731}, issn = {1574-6941}, abstract = {Vertebrate nasal microbiota (NM) plays a key role regulating host olfaction, immunity, neuronal differentiation, and structuring the epithelium. However, little is known in fish. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of the NM in two marine fish species, the European seabass and the Atlantic cod. Given its direct environmental exposure, fish NM is likely influenced by seawater fluctuations. We analysed the community structure, specificity regarding seawater, and interindividual variability of 32 to 38 fish reared under ambient conditions. Additionally, we conducted an experiment to investigate the influence of acidification and a simplified heatwave on cod NM (3 fish per replicate). High-throughput 16S rRNA sequencing revealed species-specific NM communities at the genus-level with Stenotrophomonas and Ralstonia dominating seabass and cod NM, respectively. This suggests potential habitat- or physiology-related adaptations. The most abundant bacterial genera in seabass NM were also present in seawater, suggesting environmental acquisition. Alpha diversity was highest in Brest seabass NM and variability greatest in Tromsø cod NM. Simulated climate change-related scenarios did not significantly alter cod NM structure. We propose a minimum of 13 cod rosettes per replicate for future studies. This research establishes a foundation for understanding marine fish NM and its response to environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid39963365, year = {2024}, author = {Mykhailenko, O and Jalil, B and McGaw, LJ and Echeverría, J and Takubessi, M and Heinrich, M}, title = {Climate change and the sustainable use of medicinal plants: a call for "new" research strategies.}, journal = {Frontiers in pharmacology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1496792}, pmid = {39963365}, issn = {1663-9812}, abstract = {Climate change and human activities severely impact the viability of plants and ecosystems, threatening the environment, biodiversity, and the sustainable development of plant-based products. Biotic and abiotic (ecosystem) determinants affect species distribution and long-term survival, which in turn influence the quality of plants used as herbal medicines and other high-value products. In recent decades, diverse anthropogenic impacts have significantly affected these quality aspects. Climate change, excessive plant exploitation, habitat loss, species vulnerability, and other factors have adversely affected the growth, reproduction, and adaptation of species populations, as well as the quality and volume of primary plant materials supplied to pharmaceutical markets. Despite these growing challenges, there is limited knowledge of potential strategies to prevent or mitigate these impacts, particularly for vulnerable species collected from the wild or harvested from traditional production systems. Hence, effective strategies for preserving and increasing plant populations are urgently needed. In this study, we propose a new framework including the main sustainability factors to better understand and address the vulnerability of a species, hence mitigate the impact of climate change. We assess the applicability of our proposed framework via seven case studies of vulnerable species (i.e., Aquilaria malaccensis Lam., Boswellia sacra Flück., Crocus sativus L., Panax quinquefolius L., Pilocarpus microphyllus Stapf ex Wardlew., Rhodiola rosea L., and Warburgia salutaris (G.Bertol.) Chiov.) from main biogeographic realms, all widely used as medicinal plants. These species present various challenges related to the sustainability of their use, impacting their current and future status locally and globally. Their economic importance, combined with rising demands and specific risks of overexploitation, are also key factors considered here. The suggested framework for the sustainability of medicinal and other high-value plant-based products in the phytopharmaceutical industry emphasises strategies that promote conservation and sustainable resource use. It can also be adapted for other vulnerable species requiring urgent attention.}, }
@article {pmid39962523, year = {2025}, author = {Peralta, LR and Forsyth, R and Lapi, N and Amon, KL and Metsan, P and Wattelez, G and Chen, J and Galy, O and Caillaud, C}, title = {Health literacy of adolescents' responses to a workshop focusing on food, nutrition, climate change and digital technology solutions in Oceania: a multi-site pilot study in Vanuatu.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {648}, pmid = {39962523}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {7573217403//The University of Sydney International Program Development Fund and the World Universities Network/ ; 7573217403//The University of Sydney International Program Development Fund and the World Universities Network/ ; 7573217403//The University of Sydney International Program Development Fund and the World Universities Network/ ; 7573217403//The University of Sydney International Program Development Fund and the World Universities Network/ ; 7573217403//The University of Sydney International Program Development Fund and the World Universities Network/ ; 7573217403//The University of Sydney International Program Development Fund and the World Universities Network/ ; H2020-MSCA-RISE-2019 grant agreement no. 873&#x2009;185//European Commission through the RISE program (Research and Innovation Staff Exchange)/ ; H2020-MSCA-RISE-2019 grant agreement no. 873&#x2009;185//European Commission through the RISE program (Research and Innovation Staff Exchange)/ ; H2020-MSCA-RISE-2019 grant agreement no. 873&#x2009;185//European Commission through the RISE program (Research and Innovation Staff Exchange)/ ; H2020-MSCA-RISE-2019 grant agreement no. 873&#x2009;185//European Commission through the RISE program (Research and Innovation Staff Exchange)/ ; H2020-MSCA-RISE-2019 grant agreement no. 873&#x2009;185//European Commission through the RISE program (Research and Innovation Staff Exchange)/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; *Health Literacy ; Female ; Pilot Projects ; Male ; *Digital Technology ; Vanuatu ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Students/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Health Education/methods ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCD) have become the leading cause of premature death and disability in the Pacific region, with the development of health literacy an important factor for the prevention and control of NCD. Health literacy is an important lifelong asset that can be developed in adolescents through engagement in schooling and curriculum. The aim of this study was to explore Ni-Van adolescents' health literacy knowledge and capabilities regarding food and nutrition, climate change and digital technology solutions.<br><br>METHODS: Two Ni-Van schools participated in the study (one urban (School A) and one rural school (School B)), with 44 students (68% female) comprising 14 small groups participating in one workshop and booklet activities in April 2023. The 14 workshop booklet responses were deductively analysed using Nutbeam's health literacy hierarchy.<br><br>RESULTS: School &#x2009;A's booklet responses showed that interactive health literacy responses were dominant (54%), followed by functional (34%) and critical learning activities (12%), whereas School B's responses showed that functional health literacy responses were dominant (65%), followed by interactive (28%) and critical (5%).<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings show that students in both schools were less likely to engage in critical, compared with functional and interactive health literacy levels. This is an important consideration for future workshops, as well as curriculum and teacher training in Vanuatu, as Vanuatu (and other PICTs) are more susceptible to the effects of climate change and food sustainability issues.. Without a focus on developing critical health literacy knowledge and capabilities throughout the schooling years, this is a missed opportunity to create enabling environments that reduce youth exposures to NCD risk factors.}, }
@article {pmid39962350, year = {2025}, author = {Clark, TA and Russell, A and Greenwood, JL and Devitt, D and Stanton, D and Stark, LR}, title = {Can biocrust moss hide from climate change? Fine-scale habitat sheltering improves summer stress resistance in Syntrichia caninervis.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e16464}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.16464}, pmid = {39962350}, issn = {1537-2197}, abstract = {PREMISE: Mosses provide many ecosystem functions and are the most vulnerable of biocrust organisms to climate change due to their sensitive water relations stressed by summer aridity. Given their small size, moss stress resistance may be more dependent on fine-scale habitat than macroclimate, but the sheltering role of habitat (i.e., habitat buffering) has never been compared to macroclimate and may have important implications for predicting critical biocrust moss refugia in changing climates.<br><br>METHODS: We located three populations of a keystone biocrust moss, Syntrichia caninervis, spanning 1200&#x2009;m of altitude, which comprised three macroclimate (elevation) zones of characterized plant communities in the Mojave Desert. We stratified 92 microsites along three aridity gradients: elevation zone, topography (aspect), and microhabitat (shrub proximity). We estimated summer photosynthetic stress (Fv/Fm) and aridity exposure (macroclimate, irradiance, and shade).<br><br>RESULTS: Microsite aridity exposure varied greatly, revealing exposed and buffered microhabitats at all three elevation zones. Moss stress did not differ by elevation zone despite the extensive macroclimate gradient, failing to support the high-elevation refugia hypothesis. Instead, stress was lowest on northerly-facing slopes and in microhabitats with greater shrub shading, while the importance of (and interactions between) topography, irradiance, and shade varied by elevation zone.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Fine-scale habitat structure appears physiologically more protective than high-elevation macroclimate and may protect some biocrust mosses from the brunt of climate change in widespread microrefugia throughout their current ranges. Our findings support a scale-focused vulnerability paradigm: microrefugia may be more important than macrorefugia for bolstering biocrust moss resistance to summer climate stress.}, }
@article {pmid39962216, year = {2025}, author = {Saxena, S and Sharma, H}, title = {Prediction and assessment of optimal concrete compositions for overall radiation protection and reduced global warming potential.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {5785}, pmid = {39962216}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Developing an efficient radiation-shielding concrete composition holds paramount importance for nuclear, medical, and defence facilities. The intricate interactions between various radiation particles and materials across different energy ranges present challenges in designing effective and resilient overall shielding structures. This study presents a novel approach that integrates machine learning and genetic algorithms (GA) to optimize concrete compositions for enhanced radiation shielding against gamma and neutron rays across a wide energy spectrum. By leveraging these advanced techniques, six compositions (concrete_1-concrete_6) spanning different density ranges were derived from an extensive database developed from the previous experimental researches. Subsequently, the shielding effectiveness of these compositions against all radiation particles was evaluated and compared using the OpenMC Code. The findings revealed that the proposed concrete_5 and concrete_6 compositions, comprising iron, boron, nickel, and tungsten at specified weight fractions, outperform other state-of-the-art compositions in overall radiation shielding. Furthermore, the analysis indicated a 65.89% reduction in Global Warming Potential (GWP) with the adoption of concrete_6 composition compared to conventional concrete composition.}, }
@article {pmid39961006, year = {2025}, author = {McDermott-Levy, R and Mariani, B}, title = {The Critical Role of Environmental Health and Climate Change in Nursing Education Research.}, journal = {Nursing education perspectives}, volume = {46}, number = {2}, pages = {77-78}, doi = {10.1097/01.NEP.0000000000001388}, pmid = {39961006}, issn = {1536-5026}, }
@article {pmid39960630, year = {2025}, author = {Primack, RB and Vaughn, S and Terry, C}, title = {Local soil temperature advances flowering phenology of Canada mayflower (Maianthemum canadense), with implications for climate change assessment.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {207}, number = {2}, pages = {36}, pmid = {39960630}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {1936877//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Flowers ; *Temperature ; *Soil ; Seasons ; Massachusetts ; }, abstract = {Local soil temperature has the potential to affect plant phenology, which is a key indicator of the biological effects of climate change. Many existing analyses, however, ignore local temperatures and focus only on temperature at larger scales measured by weather stations. Ignoring local temperature adds noise to analyses, creating the need for longer time series, and may also bias results. Over four years, we investigated the effects of local soil temperature, sun exposure, and soil depth on flowering phenology for 35 populations of Canada mayflower (Maianthemum canadense) in an 82-hectare mixed deciduous forest in Newton, Massachusetts (USA). Flowering dates varied by 5-7 days among sites. Soil temperatures varied by about 5 °C across sites before and during the flowering season. Among the populations, plants flowered earliest at sites with the warmest local climates-around one day earlier for each 1 °C warmer temperature. Sun exposure and soil depth did not affect flowering times. Differences in temperature and flowering times among sites were consistent over the four years of the study. In most other published phenology studies, spring wildflowers flower 2-5 days earlier for each 1 °C of warming of air temperatures. This study demonstrates that the effects of local temperature on phenology can be investigated over relatively short periods of time and that these effects may bias estimates of phenological responses to temperature that rely solely on temperature data from weather stations.}, }
@article {pmid39959832, year = {2025}, author = {Al-Malki, ES}, title = {The impacts of climate change on the global range of Culicoides punctatus (Meigen, 1804) with notes on its status in Saudi Arabia.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {e18916}, pmid = {39959832}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {*Ceratopogonidae/physiology ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Animal Distribution ; Saudi Arabia ; *Insect Vectors/physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Virus Diseases/transmission ; Animals ; Horse Diseases/transmission/virology ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Biting midges, particularly Culicoides species, pose significant health risks to humans and animals due to their biting behavior and ability to transmit diseases. Understanding their behavior and distribution patterns is crucial for predicting and controlling the spread of viral infections. This study employs species distribution modeling to assess the environmental suitability and potential future distribution of Culicoides punctatus, a species known for causing allergic reactions in horses and acting as a vector for bluetongue virus (BTV) and African horse sickness virus (AHSV). Species occurrence records for C. punctatus were collected from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and environmental data representing climate variables were obtained from WorldClim. The data were used to develop species distribution models and predict the potential distribution of C. punctatus in the Old World under different emission scenarios. The results indicate that C. punctatus has a wide occurrence across the Old World, with the highest number of records in Europe. The species distribution models highlight the influence of climate on the distribution of C. punctatus, suggesting that climate change could impact its range and potentially expand regions with endemic viral infections. The study emphasizes the need for proactive measures to monitor and manage the spread of viral infections associated with Culicoides midges. The integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing technology has facilitated high-throughput analysis techniques, eliminating the need for invasive experiments and enabling the remote assessment of species' habitats, land cover changes, and meteorology. Species distribution modeling, a powerful tool in ecological research, has been employed to predict the potential distribution of C. punctatus and assess its vulnerability to climate change. This study contributes to our understanding of the ecological implications of climate change on Culicoides midges and the associated viral infections. It provides valuable insights for designing effective management strategies, conservation efforts, and mitigation measures to minimize the impact of biting midges on human and animal health. Further research and monitoring are necessary to continuously update and refine these models in the face of changing environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39959778, year = {2024}, author = {Kum, CT and Ngwabie, NM and Tening, AS and Tsamo, C}, title = {Soil greenhouse gas fluxes and net global warming potential from two maize farming practices in the Bamenda highlands, Cameroon.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {15}, pages = {e34855}, pmid = {39959778}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Farming practices used in maize crop production are thought to modify greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the soil particularly methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O). The quantities of these GHG fluxes have rarely been estimated from smallholder farms in Sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated the quantities of GHG fluxes and Global Warming Potential (GWP) from the Push-Pull Technology (PPT) and Tillage with the Formation of Ridges (TFR) farming systems at the University of Bamenda, Cameroon. Greenhouse gases were sampled bi-monthly from April to Early August 2020 using the static chamber technique. The experiment followed a split-plot randomized complete block design with two replicates and three planting distances (1 m, 1.5 m, and 2 m) used as treatments. Mean cumulative CH4 (5.39 kgCH4-Cha[-1]) and N2O (1.03 kgN2O-Nha[-1]) emissions under TFR were significantly higher (P < 0.05) than mean CH4 (3.59 kgCH4-Cha[-1]) and N2O (0.52 kgN2O-Nha[-1]) emissions under PPT system. Mean net-GWP under PPT followed the trend 2 m (-267.61 tCO 2 -eqha [-1]) < 1.5 m (-75.76 tCO 2 -eqha [-1]) < 1 m (-24.95 tCO 2 -eqha [-1]) while under TFR, net-GWP was ordered 1 m (0.38 tCO 2 -eq ha [-1]) < 1.5 m (85.29 tCO 2 -eq ha [-1]) < 2 m (288.41 tCO 2 -eq ha [-1]) with significant differences between them. Maize grain yields under PPT were in the trend 1 m (0.81 tha [-1]) < 2 m (0.85 tha [-1]) < 1.5 m (0.92 tha [-1]) with a significant difference (P < 0.05) between 1 m and 1,5 m treatments. While under TFR, the trend was 2 m (0.56 tha [-1]) < 1 m (0.77 tha [-1]) < 1.5 m (0.80 tha [-1]) with significant difference between 1.5 m and 2 m (P < 0.05). On average, PPT was a sink to GWP (-122.77 tCO 2 -eqha [-1]) and revealed higher (P < 0.05) yields (0.86 tha [-1]) than TFR (0.71 tha [-1]) which was a source of GWP (124.69 tCO 2 -eqha [-1]). Therefore, a PPT practice of 1.5 m planting distance is recommended in Sub-Saharan Africa to enhance food productivity while mitigating global warming by minimizing soil greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid39958437, year = {2025}, author = {Akpensuen, TT and Cartmill, AD and Pérez-Márquez, S and Sheridan, H and Lee, MRF and Rivero, MJ}, title = {Make African grasslands climate-change resilient.}, journal = {Communications earth &amp; environment}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {111}, pmid = {39958437}, issn = {2662-4435}, abstract = {Climate change has negatively impacted grassland productivity in Africa. Climate-smart technologies such as forage grass, legume, and herb mixtures could enhance grassland productivity and resilience, offering a sustainable solution for African pasture-based livestock systems.}, }
@article {pmid39957734, year = {2024}, author = {Stockport, B and Yang, P and Kimani, J and Leonard, A and Hirmer, S}, title = {Climate Change Adaptation, Social Resilience, and Perceived Values Data from Turkana, Machakos and Narok Counties, Kenya.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {57}, number = {}, pages = {110978}, pmid = {39957734}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {This dataset provides socioeconomic and value perception interview data collected from 1,021 individuals living across three counties in Kenya: Turkana, Machakos and Narok. The data are made available with sub-county level geospatial attribution. Socioeconomic data were collected on housing, healthcare, water sources, electricity access, experience of extreme weather events, community services, and access to information. Value perception data were collected using the user-perceived value (UPV) method - a perception-based surveying approach which requires interviewees to select their most valued household items in different circumstances, and explain their choice through 'why'-probing. For this dataset, the UPV method was used to identify the most valued household items in daily life and in the event of an extreme weather event, e.g. a drought, floor or heatwave. Together, the socioeconomic and interview data can be used to better understand the views of different communities and demographic groups across Kenya concerning climate change and extreme weather events. They also provide insight about the intrinsic, social, emotional, epistemic, functional, and indigenous value associated with everyday household items. The data can be used by policymakers to inform development planning and to identify gaps in the available infrastructure. Additionally, researchers and development practitioners can use these data to design interventions which reflect the needs and values of communities in Kenya.}, }
@article {pmid39957242, year = {2025}, author = {Allison, S and Bastiampillai, T and Kisely, S and Cornell, H and Looi, JCL}, title = {Psychiatrists should champion the care of those with severe mental illnesses experiencing climate change-related heat stress.}, journal = {Australasian psychiatry : bulletin of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {10398562251319921}, doi = {10.1177/10398562251319921}, pmid = {39957242}, issn = {1440-1665}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The Australian climate has warmed by 1.51°C since preindustrial times, and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) predicts further warming with an increased risk of extreme heat events. This article discusses how the most recent Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists' (RANZCP) position statement dealt with the impact of climate change-related heat stress on people living with severe mental illness.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The RANZCP statement focuses on the impact of climate change on common mental disorders and suicide rates without specific mention of severe mental illnesses such as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and severe major depression. However, people with severe mental illness face higher risks of morbidity and mortality in a hotter Australian climate. Based on equity for those with greater needs and higher levels of risk, we argue that psychiatrists should advocate for enhanced social and psychiatric care to improve heat-resilience amongst patients with severe mental illness. Future research is needed on the biopsychosocial mechanisms of increased heat-related morbidity and mortality for people with severe mental illness.}, }
@article {pmid39955942, year = {2025}, author = {Hertzog, LR and Piedallu, C and Lebourgeois, F and Bouriaud, O and Bontemps, JD}, title = {Turning point in the productivity of western European forests associated with a climate change footprint.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {967}, number = {}, pages = {178843}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178843}, pmid = {39955942}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid39955903, year = {2025}, author = {Ma, D and Peng, S and Lin, Z}, title = {Towards a more comprehensive scenario analysis: Response of soil erosion to future land use and climate change in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {376}, number = {}, pages = {124523}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124523}, pmid = {39955903}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Rapid urbanization and climate change exacerbate soil erosion globally, threatening ecosystem services and sustainable development. However, current predictive studies on future soil erosion often lack comprehensive consideration of the interactions between land use and climate change. This study proposed a comprehensive scenario analysis framework that integrated four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from CMIP6 with four bespoke land-use scenarios (Inertial Development (IDS), Urban Development Priority (UDPS), Ecological Protection Priority (EPPS), and Farmland Protection Priority (FPPS)) to create 16 future scenarios, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of potential soil erosion trajectories. The results indicated that (1) compared to the baseline period (2000-2020), future soil erosion in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration (CYUA) would improve, albeit with significant differences among the scenarios. The most notable improvement was under EPPS + SSP1-2.6 scenario (ScC1). (2) The lower Jinsha, upper Nanpan, and Red river basins were high-risk areas for soil erosion in the CYUA, each dominated by different factors, necessitating differentiated soil erosion control measures. (3) Land-use and climate change jointly influenced the direction of erosion development, with the lightest erosion occurring under the EPPS and heaviest erosion occurring under the FPPS. The largest decrease in erosion occurs under SSP1-2.6, whereas the smallest decrease occurs under SSP5-8.5. (4) Climate change had a more significant impact on soil erosion than land-use change, with the reduction rates of the soil erosion modulus and area between different climate change scenarios relative to the past 20 years being 9% and 3.77%, respectively, approximately eight and four times the magnitude of change under different land-use scenarios. This study recommends reducing carbon emissions, enhancing vegetation cover, and controlling slope land development to effectively mitigate the soil erosion risk in CYUA and promote regional sustainable development. The proposed comprehensive scenario analysis method provides new insights into future global small-scale regional predictions.}, }
@article {pmid39955462, year = {2025}, author = {Ghazi, B and Salehi, H and Przybylak, R and Pospieszyńska, A}, title = {Projection of climate change impact on the occurrence of drought events in Poland.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {5609}, pmid = {39955462}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2020/37/B/ST10/00710//Narodowym Centrum Nauki/ ; 2020/37/B/ST10/00710//Narodowym Centrum Nauki/ ; }, abstract = {In the era of human-induced climate change, droughts are one of the extreme events that can severely impact water resources, regional agriculture and the ecological environment. A reliable projection of droughts for the future is crucial with the rapid global increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts. This research aims to project the future of droughts in Poland by the end of the 21st century. To achieve this, we use a multi-model mean ensemble of 26 downscaled and bias-corrected high-resolution general circulation models (GCMs) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to project changes in temperature and precipitation. Then, estimation of droughts was completed for the periods 2031-2060 and 2071-2100 according to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at three-time scales of 1, 6 and 12 months to address three types of droughts (i.e., meteorological, agricultural and hydrological, respectively). The temperature and precipitation projection revealed that temperature will increase in both future periods, which is dramatic under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. However, precipitation fluctuates based on scenarios with a slight increase, excluding far-future periods under SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The projected changes in droughts based on SPEI under SSP scenarios showed a decrease in frequency in the near-future, but an increase under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 in the far-future. The number of severe and moderate droughts is expected to rise, with a notable increase in agricultural and hydrological droughts (SPEI-6 and SPEI-12) under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5.}, }
@article {pmid39954572, year = {2025}, author = {Reis, J and Öztürk, &#x15e; and Ayta, S and Tülek, Z and Siva, A and Can, G and Spencer, PS}, title = {Health challenges of climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region, with a focus on Türkiye. An environmental neurological and brain health perspective.}, journal = {Journal of the neurological sciences}, volume = {470}, number = {}, pages = {123423}, doi = {10.1016/j.jns.2025.123423}, pmid = {39954572}, issn = {1878-5883}, abstract = {The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region, where both natural and anthropogenic disasters have occurred, is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This article aims to alert and inform the neurological community about the many health risks linked to climate change, including some more specific ones, such as the mucilage phenomenon, heat waves and dust storms, and the spread of vector-borne infections. We describe the potential adverse effects of such climate-related exposures and advocate for more research to promote Brain Health.}, }
@article {pmid39954090, year = {2025}, author = {Bhardwaj, SS and Jha, MK and Uniyal, B}, title = {Impact of climate change on hydrological fluxes in the Upper Bhagirathi River Basin, Uttarakhand.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {3}, pages = {299}, pmid = {39954090}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Rivers/chemistry ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Hydrology ; India ; Water Movements ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The Himalayan rivers are the major source of freshwater resources and have a tremendous potential for hydroelectric generation. However, assessing the water availability under climate change is challenging due to data scarcity, undulating topography, and complex climatic conditions. SWAT modeling investigates all potential consequences of variations in climate on the hydrological fluxes in the Upper Bhagirathi River Basin. Two global circulation models (GCMs) with three different climatic scenarios were employed. Quantile mapping has been used to correct the bias of GCM data. The developed model accurately simulated streamflow during calibration and validation at daily (NSE = 0.79 - 0.74, r = 0.89-0.87, and RMSE = 61.95 m[3]/s-79.75 m[3]/s) and monthly (NSE = 0.92 - 0.93, r = 0.96-0.97, and RMSE = 34.19 m[3]/s-37.39 m[3]/s) time steps. The analysis of the outcomes from MIROC6 and NorESM2-LM revealed that the rise in streamflow, surface runoff, lateral flow, and baseflow is more pronounced in MIROC6 across all three climatic scenarios. Under all scenarios, both MIROC6 and NorESM2-LM models show significant variations in snowfall and snowmelt patterns, with the area under snowfall reaching up to 51.65% for MIROC6 under SSP1-2.6 and snowmelt area peaking at 64.30% for MIROC6 under SSP2-4.5. This study's findings will offer essential insights for policymakers, practitioners, and water resource managers in developing climate-resilient strategies for sustainable water management in Himalayan catchments.}, }
@article {pmid39953364, year = {2025}, author = {Somkuwar, RG and Dhole, AM}, title = {Understanding the photosynthesis in relation to climate change in grapevines.}, journal = {Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39953364}, issn = {1611-7530}, abstract = {Due to predicted global climate change, there have been significant alterations in agricultural production patterns, which had a negative impact on ecosystems as well as the commercial and export prospects for the production of grapevines. The natural biochemistry of grapevines, including their chlorophyll content, net photosynthetic rate, Fv/Fm ratio, photorespiration, reduced yield, and quality is also anticipated to be negatively impacted by the various effects of light, temperature, and carbon dioxide at elevated scales. Grapevine phenology, physiology, and quality are impacted by the inactivation of photosystems (I and II), the Rubisco enzyme system, pigments, chloroplast integrity, and light intensity by temperature and increasing CO2 levels. Grape phenological events are considerably altered by climatic conditions; in particular, berries mature earlier, increasing the sugar-to-acid ratio. In enology, the sugar-to-acid ratio is crucial since it determines the wine's final alcohol concentration and flavour. As light intensity and CO2 levels rise, the biosynthesis of anthocyanins and tannins declines. As the temperature rises, the production of antioxidants diminishes, affecting the quality of raisins. Table grapes are more sensitive to temperature because of physiological problems like pink berries and a higher sugar-to-acidity ratio. Therefore, the systemic impact of light intensity, temperature, and increasing CO2 levels on grapevine physiology, phenology, photosystems, photosynthesis enzyme system, and adaptive strategies for grape producers and researchers are highlighted in this article.}, }
@article {pmid39953161, year = {2025}, author = {Levy, A}, title = {'Researching climate change feels like standing in the path of an approaching train'.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-025-00487-4}, pmid = {39953161}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39952222, year = {2025}, author = {Ryu, YK and Hong, HK and Park, A and Lee, WK and Kim, T and Heo, SJ and Park, HS and Kim, D and Oh, C and Yang, HS}, title = {Effect of diet changes in benthic ecosystems owing to climate change on the physiological responses of Turbo sazae in waters around Jeju Island, Korea.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {205}, number = {}, pages = {107001}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107001}, pmid = {39952222}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {The benthic ecosystem in temperate regions is becoming barren owing to the replacement of macroalgae by calcareous algae as a result of climate change-induced increases in water temperature. The aim of this study was to observe how the top shell, Turbo sazae, an invertebrate that feeds on macroalgae, adapts to a benthic environment with a reduced macroalgae population owing to replacement by calcareous algae. Using tank experiments, the top shells were cultured for 18 weeks. Within this period, they were fed a diet comprising either Eclonia cava or Corallina officinalis. Thereafter, hemocyte response, reproductive development, and the levels of biochemical compounds in the individuals under investigation were analyzed. The results obtained showed no significant differences in immunological responses, gonad development, and general body weight between the two feeding groups. However, amino acid profiling showed a decreasing trend in amino acid contents in both feeding groups, but no significant differences were observed with respect to overall protein content. These findings indirectly suggested that even in a macroalgae-depleted environment, the top shells can survive by consuming crustose calcareous algae, but with the change in diet affecting the levels of some amino acids in their bodies. Therefore, this study provides valuable insights into the adaptability of the top shells inhabiting the waters around Jeju Island to changes in their feeding environment and may also serve as basis for enhancing resource management strategies in response to climate change-induced changes in the benthic ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid39949618, year = {2025}, author = {Hubab, M and Lorestani, N and Al-Awabdeh, RAM and Shabani, F}, title = {Climate change-driven shifts in the global distribution of tomato and potato crops and their associated bacterial pathogens.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {1520104}, pmid = {39949618}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is increasingly affecting the global distribution and productivity of critical food crops, including Solanum lycopersicum (tomato) and Solanum tuberosum (potato). In particular, bacterial pathogens such as Clavibacter michiganensis and Ralstonia solanacearum are expected to shift their geographic ranges, posing new risks to these crops. This study hypothesizes that under future climate scenarios, the geographic overlap between these crops and their pathogens will increase in certain regions, leading to heightened agricultural risks, especially in areas currently considered safe from these pathogens.<br><br>METHODS: To test our hypotheses, the objective was to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of two key food crops (tomato and potato) and their bacterial pathogens for the current time and by 2050. This study used four species distribution models (SDMs) to predict current and future habitat suitability for both tomato and potato crops, as well as their associated pathogens, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP4.5 and SSP8.5) and four global circulation models (GCMs).<br><br>RESULTS: The models projected significant poleward shifts in suitable habitats for tomatoes and potatoes, with notable expansions in higher-latitude regions such as Canada, northern Europe, and Russia, and contractions in current major production zones such as the United States (US), Brazil, parts of Africa, and China. For Clavibacter michiganensis, the overlap with tomatoes was substantial, whereas the overlap between potatoes and Ralstonia solanacearum was comparatively smaller.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Our hypothesis was partially supported by the results. While the overall overlap between crop and pathogen habitats remains limited, the risk areas for both pathogens are expected to expand under future climate conditions in regions such as eastern Australia, Japan, Spain, and France. These findings underscore the importance of region-specific agricultural planning and pathogen management strategies to mitigate the risks posed by climate change. Future efforts should focus on vulnerable areas to prevent significant economic losses and ensure food security.}, }
@article {pmid39949519, year = {2025}, author = {Aksit, D and Laenen, T}, title = {Settlement deservingness perceptions of climate change, economic, and political migrant groups across partisan lines.}, journal = {Frontiers in sociology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1510672}, pmid = {39949519}, issn = {2297-7775}, abstract = {International migration is a prevailing issue of our times. With opponents of multicultural societies becoming more vocal across Europe, it is pivotal to strengthen our knowledge of how migrants are popularly perceived in receiving countries. Prior research suggests that there is remarkable agreement within different countries as to which types of migrants are seen as deserving of settlement, cutting across deep-rooted partisan divides. Building on the CARIN deservingness theory, this article sheds new light on this so-called "hidden immigration consensus" by investigating Americans' original perceptions of different migrant groups rather than following the standard practice of assessing how they react to a set of pre-defined migrant characteristics in a conjoint experiment. Based on a split-sample experiment, our results show that liberals and conservatives significantly differ in their perceptions of political, economic, and climate change migrants on four of the five CARIN criteria. Liberals differentiate between migrants on control, attitude, and identity criteria, whereas conservatives only distinguish on the control criterion. Liberals rate all migrant groups twice as deserving as conservatives. The implications for the settlement deservingness model and the hidden consensus hypothesis are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid39946393, year = {2025}, author = {Singh, MK}, title = {Men deny more than they believe about climate change on Twitter (X).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {e0303007}, pmid = {39946393}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Social Media ; Male ; Female ; }, abstract = {Climate change and twitter have been in scholarly and academic attention for study of human behaviour expressed on the popular social media platform. The sentiment of the tweets has been the subject of previous studies, and the most recent study used Twitter texts to examine seven aspects of climate change: denier/believer stance, sentiment, aggressiveness, temperature, gender, subjects and disasters, and their relationships. Amid the big pictures across these vital variables, we know very little about the extent to which the comparative gendered differences in views exist in the climate denier and believer groups shaping the climate change discussion. Using the large scale global twitter data from the past 13 years, this paper has examined the differences in the views of deniers and believers on climate change in comparison to the people neutral to climate change. Based on the expression on twitter, results of a sound multinomial regression model of this study indicates a globally strong climate denier stance of men.}, }
@article {pmid39946319, year = {2025}, author = {Phuyal, P and Kramer, IM and Kadel, I and Wouters, E and Magdeburg, A and Groneberg, DA and Kuch, U and Ahrens, B and Dhimal, ML and Dhimal, M and Müller, R}, title = {On people's perceptions of climate change and its impacts in a hotspot of global warming.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {e0317786}, pmid = {39946319}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; Nepal ; *Climate Change ; Male ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Perception ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Seasons ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is a global hotspot for climate change and highly vulnerable to its direct and indirect impacts. Understanding people's perception of climate change is crucial for effective adaptation strategies. We conducted a study by using quantitative (Household survey, n = 660) and qualitative data collection tools (Focus group discussion, n = 12; In-depth interviews, n = 27) in central Nepal encompassing three altitudinal regions: Lowland (<1000 m amsl; Terai region), Midland (1000-1500 m amsl; hilly region) and Highland (1500-2100 m amsl; mountainous region). We analyzed 37 years (1981-2017) of climatic data from respective districts (Lowland: Chitwan, Dhading; Midland: Kathmandu, Lalitpur; Highland: Nuwakot, Rasuwa). People's perception was compared with climate extreme indices measured along these regions and evaluated if they accurately recognized the impacts on the environment and human health. Our findings show significant climate changes, including rising summer temperature, region-specific winter temperatures and extended monsoon seasons in Nepal. Participants in our study accurately perceived these trends but misperceived heavy precipitation patterns. Reported impacts are rise in crop diseases, human diseases, vector expansion and climate induced disasters like floods, landslides, and water resource depletion, with perception accuracy varying by region. These insights highlight the importance of understanding regional and cross-regional perceptions in relation to climate data in order to develop tailored climate adaptation strategies. Policymakers can use this information to establish region-specific educational and communication initiatives, addressing communities' distinctive vulnerabilities and needs across diverse landscapes. Such approaches can enhance equitable and effective climate resilience in subtropical to alpine regions.}, }
@article {pmid39946300, year = {2025}, author = {Marin, L and Kleinberg, RL}, title = {Climate Change, Emissions of Volatile Anesthetics, and Policy Making: The Case of Desflurane.}, journal = {Anesthesia and analgesia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39946300}, issn = {1526-7598}, }
@article {pmid39945749, year = {2025}, author = {Duncan, C and Berrian, A and Sander, WE}, title = {Integrating Climate Change into Competency-Based Veterinary Education.}, journal = {Journal of veterinary medical education}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e20240102}, doi = {10.3138/jvme-2024-0102}, pmid = {39945749}, issn = {0748-321X}, abstract = {There is an urgent need for the expansion of climate change education for all health professionals, including veterinarians. Recognizing this, the American Association of Veterinary Medical Colleges released a position statement in 2023 urging the incorporation of climate change education into veterinary curriculums. However, there are currently no guidelines on how to implement this. Here we propose an educational framework, developed through a review of the literature and expert input, upon which to build veterinary-specific climate content. The framework includes four complementary domains: animal health management, resilient veterinary systems, mitigation of veterinary-related climate hazards, and broad community engagement on climate change. These domains are connected by two important threads, foundational knowledge and continuous learning, that highlight the dynamic nature of climate science and current and anticipated health impacts. The framework aims to serve as a starting point for developing, and sharing, climate change educational resources in veterinary medicine.}, }
@article {pmid39944519, year = {2025}, author = {George, ME and Gaitor, TT and Cluck, DB and Henao-Martínez, AF and Sells, NR and Chastain, DB}, title = {The impact of climate change on the epidemiology of fungal infections: implications for diagnosis, treatment, and public health strategies.}, journal = {Therapeutic advances in infectious disease}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {20499361251313841}, pmid = {39944519}, issn = {2049-9361}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change, primarily driven by greenhouse gas emissions, is reshaping ecosystems and creating conditions that affect 58% of all known human infectious diseases, including fungal infections. Specifically, increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events are influencing fungal growth, distribution, and virulence. These factors may expand the geographic range of pathogenic fungi, exposing populations to novel, potentially more virulent, or drug-resistant strains. Simultaneously, human factors such as declining immunity, aging populations, and increased use of immunosuppressive therapies are enhancing host susceptibility. This review explores the intricate relationship between climate change and fungal infections, highlighting pathogens that may demonstrate increased virulence and antifungal resistance, along with emerging novel pathogens. The clinical implications are profound, with increased morbidity, mortality, and the spread of fungal infections into new regions. Immediate action is required to develop policies, educational initiatives, and novel antifungal therapies, enhance early diagnostic capabilities, and address healthcare disparities to mitigate the growing burden of fungal infections.}, }
@article {pmid39942897, year = {2025}, author = {Marques, T and Ferreira-Pinto, A and Fevereiro, P and Pinto, T and Gomes-Laranjo, J}, title = {Current Biological Insights of Castanea sativa Mill. to Improve Crop Sustainability to Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {39942897}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {UIDB/04033/2020//FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; LA/P/0126/2020//FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; }, abstract = {The sustainability of agriculture is seriously threatened by climate change. In Europe, chestnut ecosystems, which are growing mainly in Mediterranean climate, are facing during summertime increasing of heat and drought stresses. These induce fragilities on trees, leading to a reduction in productivity and predisposing them to pest and disease attacks. The plasticity of chestnut species under contrasting climate is known. Understanding the specific adaptation of cultivars to different climate features is now important to anticipating climate changes. Caucasian Region is considered the origin center of chestnut (Castanea sativa), which is characterized by climatic transition from the Mediterranean to the Euro-Siberian area. Mostly, areas of chestnut are concentrated in the countries around the Mediterranean Basin, thriving in regions with humid and Pré-Atlantic bioclimates. In Portugal, more than 95% of the chestnut area is located in the Center and North side of Portugal. This is an anisohydry species, characterized by good hydroplasticity: 90% reduction in A occurs when Ψwstem drops to -1.25 MPa, and a 50% reduction in A occurs at values of -1.7 MPa. The highest fatty acid contents in chestnut chloroplasts are a-linolenic acid (18:3), ranging between 40 and 50% of the total amount and being the unsaturated/saturated 2.27 for Longal. New strategies are being investigated in order to increase tolerance against those abiotic factors in chestnut species. They include the use of innovative irrigation techniques, which can increase production 22-37%. Fertilization with silicone (Si) has been investigated to promote the tolerance of plants against heat and drought stresses. Breeding programs, mostly (in Europe) against ink disease, have been performed since the middle of the XX century to create new genotypes (such the Portuguese ColUTAD[®]). ClimCast, a network of orchards, was created in Portugal with the aim of responding to the new challenges facing orchards in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39942868, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, Y and Li, Y and Wang, R and Guo, L and Ji, Y and Chen, Y and Hao, L and Lin, K}, title = {Impacts of Human Activity and Climate Change on the Suitable Habitats for Xanthium spinosum in China.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {39942868}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2021YFD1400300//Earmarked Fund for the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; CARS-34//China Forage and Grass Research System CARS/ ; 2022LHQN03002//Inner Mongolia Natural Science Foundation/ ; 2024MD753998//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant Number/ ; }, abstract = {Xanthium spinosum (X. spinosum) is a highly invasive weed native to South America and distributed in 17 provinces (municipalities) of China. It has severely negative influences on ecosystems, agriculture, and husbandry. However, few studies have reported on the impact of human activity and climate change on the future distribution and centroid shift of X. spinosum. This study aimed to investigate the potential geological distribution of X. spinosum in China, as well as the distribution pattern, centroid shift, and key environmental factors influencing its distribution, under four future climate scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, and SSP5-85) based on the biomod2-integrated model. The results indicated that the suitable habitats for X. spinosum would expand in the future, mainly in Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, and the plateau regions (e.g., Xinjiang and Xizang). Under future climate scenarios, the centroid would shift toward the northwest or northeast part of China, with the SSP2-45-2050s scenario showing the maximum shift distance (161.990 km). Additionally, the key environmental variables influencing the distribution of X. spinosum, including human impact index, bio5, bio7, and bio12, were determined, revealing that most of them were related to human activities, temperature, and precipitation. This study enhances the understanding of the influence of human activity and climate change on the geographic range of X. spinosum. It provides references for early warning and management in the control of X. spinosum.}, }
@article {pmid39942008, year = {2025}, author = {Šola, I and Poljuha, D and Pavičić, I and Jurinjak Tušek, A and Šamec, D}, title = {Climate Change and Plant Foods: The Influence of Environmental Stressors on Plant Metabolites and Future Food Sources.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {39942008}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {IP-2020-02-7585; IP-2020-02-6899; UIP-2019-04-1018//Croatian Sceince Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is reshaping global agriculture by altering temperature regimes and other environmental conditions, with profound implications for food security and agricultural productivity. This review examines how key environmental stressors-such as extreme temperatures, water scarcity, increased salinity, UV-B radiation, and elevated concentrations of ozone and CO2-impact the nutritional quality and bioactive compounds in plant-based foods. These stressors can modify the composition of essential nutrients, particularly phytochemicals, which directly affect the viability of specific crops in certain regions and subsequently influence human dietary patterns by shifting the availability of key food resources. To address these challenges, there is growing interest in resilient plant species, including those with natural tolerance to stress and genetically modified variants, as well as in alternative protein sources derived from plants. Additionally, unconventional food sources, such as invasive plant species and algae, are being explored as sustainable solutions for future nutrition.}, }
@article {pmid39940322, year = {2025}, author = {Neale, E and Balvert, T and Crinnion, H and Craddock, J and Lambert, K and Charlton, K}, title = {Application of Global Warming Potential Star (GWP*) Values to the AUSNUT 2011-13 Food Composition Database: Creation of the GWP*-AUSNUT 2011-13 Database.}, journal = {Nutrients}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {39940322}, issn = {2072-6643}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Australia ; *Databases, Factual ; Humans ; Food Analysis ; Diet ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Carbon Footprint ; Food ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Global Warming Potential Star (GWP*) refers to the amount of carbon dioxide equivalents produced by food items, with values available for n = 232 Australian food products. The aim of this study was to apply GWP* values to the AUSNUT 2011-13 food composition database to facilitate the calculation of the climate footprint of Australian dietary data.<br><br>METHODS: To create the GWP*-AUSNUT 2011-13 database, all n = 5740 food and beverage items in AUSNUT 2011-13 were reviewed and GWP* values applied or calculated via a systematic approach. Direct or approximate matches to a single GWP* value were prioritised. GWP* values were then calculated for composite foods with multiple ingredients. Finally, GWP* values were approximated based on food group, adjusted using other GWP* values, or foods were excluded if no appropriate match could be found.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of n = 5502 (95.85%) AUSNUT 2011-13 foods were matched to a GWP* value, with the majority requiring calculation based on multiple ingredients. Mean &#xb1; standard deviation GWP* values ranged from 0.18 &#xb1; 0.12 kg CO2e/kg ('Dairy and meat substitutes') to 5.63 &#xb1; 7.55 kg CO2e/kg ('Meat, poultry and game products and dishes').<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The GWP*-AUSNUT 2011-13 database can be applied to Australian dietary data to identify the climate footprint of different dietary patterns or to provide insight into dietary changes required to decrease greenhouse gas emissions. Future research is now required to develop new GWP* values for a broader range of foods and to update this database when new Australian food composition databases are released.}, }
@article {pmid39939710, year = {2025}, author = {Ogunbode, TO and Esan, VI and Ayegboyin, MH and Ogunlaran, OM and Sangoyomi, ET and Akande, JA}, title = {Analysis of farmers' perceptions on sustainable sweet orange farming in nigeria amid climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {5205}, pmid = {39939710}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Nigeria ; *Farmers ; *Citrus sinensis ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; Agriculture/methods ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Perception ; }, abstract = {This study evaluates sweet orange farmers' understanding of climate change impacts on sweet orange farming in Nigeria. A survey was conducted among 480 farmers across six key sweet orange-producing states, with 418 completed questionnaires analysed using descriptive and inferential statistical methods. The findings revealed that 78% of sweet orange farmers were male, 61% used pesticides for pest control, and 34.92% managed between 1 and 3 acres of sweet orange farms. The data underwent rigorous validation using the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin and Bartlett's tests (p < 0.05), confirming its suitability for factor analysis. Six key factors shaping farmers' perceptions of climate change impacts were identified: production volume, high-temperature effects, prolonged dry seasons, shifting rainfall patterns, flooding incidence, and poor seedling performance. To mitigate climate change impacts, three major adaptation strategies were highlighted: (i) regular and timely dissemination of climate-related information to farmers (36.33%), (ii) enhanced government support through access to credit, extension services, public lectures, outreach programmes, and agrochemical subsidies (23.38%), and (iii) promotion of heat-resistant seeds and seedlings (11.50%). Policy recommendations include the establishment of a climate-resilient agricultural framework that integrates climate-smart farming techniques into extension services. The government should prioritise subsidies and financial support for smallholder farmers to enhance adaptive capacity. Additionally, investment in agricultural research to develop and distribute climate-resilient sweet orange seedlings should be intensified. Collaboration between meteorological agencies and agricultural extension officers should be strengthened to ensure farmers receive accurate, timely weather forecasts. Lastly, policymakers should design region-specific climate adaptation policies to support sustainable sweet orange production. Further research is recommended to assess the long-term effectiveness of these adaptation strategies in sustaining sweet orange farming under changing climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39937798, year = {2025}, author = {Schön, J and Gentsch, N and Breunig, P}, title = {Correction: Cover crops support the climate change mitigation potential of agroecosystems.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {e0319516}, pmid = {39937798}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302139.].}, }
@article {pmid39937142, year = {2025}, author = {Czajkowski, R and Roca, A and Matilla, MA}, title = {Harnessing Bacteriophages for Sustainable Crop Protection in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {Microbial biotechnology}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {e70108}, pmid = {39937142}, issn = {1751-7915}, support = {RYC2019-026481-I//Spanish Ministry for Science and Innovation/ ; 2020/38/E/NZ9/00007//Polish National Science Center/ ; PID2023-146281NB-I00//Spanish Ministry for Science, Innovation and Universities/ ; }, mesh = {*Bacteriophages/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Plant Diseases/prevention &amp; control/microbiology/therapy ; *Crops, Agricultural/microbiology ; *Crop Protection/methods ; Phage Therapy/methods ; Biological Control Agents ; Agriculture/methods ; }, abstract = {Crop pathogens represent a major challenge to global food security, causing over 40% yield losses in key crops and annual economic impacts estimated at up to US$290 billion. Microbial-based alternatives to synthetic agrochemicals offer sustainable solutions aligned with global initiatives like the European Union's Green Deal. Among these, bacteriophage (phage) therapy has gained attention for its specificity, effectiveness against plant pathogens and safety for crops. Here, we highlight recent research on phage therapy strategies and their potential utility in sustainable agriculture, showcasing its effectiveness in reducing phytopathogen densities, delaying plant disease onset, and enriching plant-associated bacterial taxa with biocontrol potential. Phage cocktails improve biocontrol, mitigate resistance, and synergize with other biological and chemical agents. Emerging technologies like engineered phages also promise enhanced efficacy. Addressing challenges like phytopathogen resistance, field inconsistencies, and regulatory hurdles is crucial to integrating phage therapy into sustainable agriculture under climate stress.}, }
@article {pmid39936594, year = {2025}, author = {Levy, SB and Pirtle, S and Bastien, R and Cruz, K and Vernon, J}, title = {The wintertime brown adipose tissue thermogenesis of New York City residents amidst climate change.}, journal = {Annals of human biology}, volume = {52}, number = {1}, pages = {2455685}, doi = {10.1080/03014460.2025.2455685}, pmid = {39936594}, issn = {1464-5033}, mesh = {Humans ; Male ; Female ; *Thermogenesis/physiology ; Adult ; New York City ; *Adipose Tissue, Brown/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Seasons ; Young Adult ; Energy Metabolism ; Cold Temperature ; Adolescent ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The built environment buffers residents of large cities, such as New York (NYC), from exposure to low temperatures. Furthermore, average winter temperatures are rising in NYC due to climate change. The degree to which NYC residents exhibit metabolic adaptations to cold stress is currently unclear.<br><br>AIM: This study quantified variation in brown adipose tissue (BAT), energy expenditure (EE), and ambient temperature among NYC residents.<br><br>SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We recruited 46 adults (31 females; 15 males) and quantified anthropometrics, change in EE, and BAT thermogenesis after a cooling condition in the lab. A subsample of 21 participants wore temperature loggers for three days in order to quantify ambient temperature exposure.<br><br>RESULTS: BAT thermogenesis was not significantly associated with change in EE. Participants that were exposed to lower average temperatures exhibited greater BAT thermogenesis (p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.013). Change in EE, however, was not significantly associated with time spent outside nor average temperature exposure.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our study provides mixed evidence for the role of BAT thermogenesis in metabolic adaptations to cold stress among NYC residents. Many young adults in NYC are exposed to minimal amounts of cold stress, and this trend is likely to be exacerbated by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39935732, year = {2025}, author = {Shomuyiwa, DO and Lucero-Prisno, DE}, title = {Climate change trauma and collective dissociation: Unraveling the impact on mental health and advocating for collective action.}, journal = {Global mental health (Cambridge, England)}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {e5}, pmid = {39935732}, issn = {2054-4251}, abstract = {The climate change crisis is a complex global challenge that has far- reaching implications for public health and well-being. Rising temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events are impacting physical health, mental well-being, and ecological balance. Vulnerable communities are disproportionately affected, especially in terms of food security. Furthermore, climate-related disasters have profound and lasting effects on mental health, leading to trauma responses and dissociation as coping mechanisms. This perspective delves into the concept of collective dissociation, a subconscious defense mechanism that hinders effective action in the face of the overwhelming climate crisis. Understanding and characterizing this phenomenon is essential to promote meaningful climate action. To combat collective dissociation and facilitate effective collective action, several strategies are proposed. Responsible information management for advocacy, local moral support, strategic policy development, and research on climate trauma processing are highlighted as vital approaches. By addressing the mental health implications of climate change, raising awareness, and prioritizing resilience and cooperation, societies can transcend collective dissociation and work together towards a more sustainable future for both the planet and its inhabitants. This call to action underscores the need for comprehensive and guided measures to safeguard planetary and population health in the face of this pressing crisis.}, }
@article {pmid39935685, year = {2024}, author = {Botes, J and Ma, X and Chang, J and Van de Peer, Y and Berger, DK}, title = {Flavonoids and anthocyanins in seagrasses: implications for climate change adaptation and resilience.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1520474}, pmid = {39935685}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Seagrasses are a paraphyletic group of marine angiosperms and retain certain adaptations from the ancestors of all embryophytes in the transition to terrestrial environments. Among these adaptations is the production of flavonoids, versatile phenylpropanoid secondary metabolites that participate in a variety of stress responses. Certain features, such as catalytic promiscuity and metabolon interactions, allow flavonoid metabolism to expand to produce novel compounds and respond to a variety of stimuli. As marine environments expose seagrasses to a unique set of stresses, these plants display interesting flavonoid profiles, the functions of which are often not completely clear. Flavonoids will likely prove to be effective and versatile agents in combating the new host of stress conditions introduced to marine environments by anthropogenic climate change, which affects marine environments differently from terrestrial ones. These new stresses include increased sulfate levels, changes in salt concentration, changes in herbivore distributions, and ocean acidification, which all involve flavonoids as stress response mechanisms, though the role of flavonoids in combatting these climate change stresses is seldom discussed directly in the literature. Flavonoids can also be used to assess the health of seagrass meadows through an interplay between flavonoid and simple phenolic levels, which may prove to be useful in monitoring the response of seagrasses to climate change. Studies focusing on the genetics of flavonoid metabolism are limited for this group, but the large chalcone synthase gene families in some species may provide an interesting topic of research. Anthocyanins are typically studied separately from other flavonoids. The phenomenon of reddening in certain seagrass species typically focuses on the importance of anthocyanins as a UV-screening mechanism, while the role of anthocyanins in cold stress is discussed less often. Both of these stress response functions would be useful for adaptation to climate change-induced deviations in tidal patterns and emersion. However, ocean warming will likely lead to a decrease in anthocyanin content, which may impact the performance of intertidal seagrasses. This review highlights the importance of flavonoids in angiosperm stress response and adaptation, examines research on flavonoids in seagrasses, and hypothesizes on the importance of flavonoids in these organisms under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39935589, year = {2025}, author = {Karimi-Malekabadi, F and Sachdeva, S and Dehghani, M}, title = {A value-based topography of climate change beliefs and behaviors.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {pgae590}, pmid = {39935589}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {While research has documented clear regional differences in environmental attitudes and behaviors, less is understood about the role of shared moral values in shaping these variations. This gap poses a critical challenge to designing effective climate action strategies. Many environmental initiatives rely on "moral framing" to promote proenvironmental behavior, often targeting specific geographical areas like cities or counties. However, these strategies may falter if they fail to account for the unique moral landscapes that shape climate beliefs and actions in different regions. To maximize the success of these interventions, it is crucial to understand how collective moral values influence environmental engagement across diverse communities. Across two studies, we offer insights at the collective level into the moral psychology of climate change by investigating how county-level moral values can predict (i) green attitudes and (ii) household carbon emissions within those counties after accounting for political behavior and region-specific factors. Using Bayesian geospatial modeling, we find that counties that endorse purity and fairness show higher environmental concerns and lower emissions across 3,102 US counties in 48 states. While political orientation strongly predicts environmental attitudes, moral values appear to be a more important factor in predicting carbon footprints. We discuss how county-level dynamics deviate from individual-level dynamics. Our community-level evidence can be leveraged to enhance green interventions on a regional scale by aligning them with the local populace's prevailing values and lived experiences, thus bolstering public support and increasing the likelihood of successful climate action initiatives.}, }
@article {pmid39935274, year = {2025}, author = {Augustyniak, M and Preiszner, B and Kobak, J and Czeglédi, I and Kakareko, T and Erős, T and Cuthbert, RN and Jermacz, &#x141;}, title = {Global warming affects foraging efficiency of fish by influencing mutual interference.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.70003}, pmid = {39935274}, issn = {1365-2656}, support = {2020/39/D/NZ8/01226//Narodowe Centrum Nauki/ ; OTKA PD 138296//National Research, Development and Innovation Office/ ; }, abstract = {Predator-prey interactions underpin ecological dynamics from population to ecosystem scales, affecting population growth and influencing community stability. One of the classic methods to study these relationships is the functional response (FR) approach, measuring resource use across resource densities. Global warming is known to strongly mediate consumer-resource interactions, but the relevance of prey and predator densities remains largely unknown. Elevated temperature could increase consumer energy expenditure, which needs to be compensated by greater foraging activity. However, such greater activity may concurrently result in a higher encounter rate with other consumers, which potentially affects their total pressure on resource populations because of synergistic or antagonistic effects among multiple predators. We performed a laboratory experiment using three densities of a fish predator (pumpkinseed, Lepomis gibbosus) (one, two and four specimens), two temperatures (25 and 28°C) and six prey densities. Using the FR approach, we investigated the combined effects of elevated temperature and predator and prey density on the consumer's foraging efficiency. We observed a reduced maximum feeding rate at the higher temperature for single predators. However, the foraging efficiency of predators in groups was negatively affected by antagonistic interactions between individuals and further mediated by the temperature. Specifically, we observed a general decrease in antagonistic interactions at elevated compared to the ambient water temperature for multiple predator groupings. Irrespective of temperature, antagonistic multiple predator effects increased with predator density and peaked unimodally at intermediate prey densities, indicating multiple dimensions of density-dependence that interact to supersede the effects of warming. This study shows that conspecific presence negatively affects the per capita performance of predators, but that this effect is dampened with increasing temperature. Their adaptive response to temperature consists of limited food intake and further reduced intraspecific interactions. Including intraspecific competition in study design may thus offer more realistic outcomes compared to widely used experiments with only single predator individuals, which could overestimate the effect of increasing temperature.}, }
@article {pmid39934367, year = {2025}, author = {Braithwaite, J and Tran, Y and Fisher, G and Ellis, LA and Smith, CL and Zurynski, Y}, title = {Health system performance on greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and development status in 38 OECD countries.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {5101}, pmid = {39934367}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2019/GNT1176620//National Health and Medical Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Humans ; *Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development ; Delivery of Health Care ; }, abstract = {Health systems must solve two climate-related problems simultaneously: mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to additional patient loads associated with climate-induced demands for care from weather sequalae and vector-borne diseases. We aimed to benchmark the mitigation and adaptive efforts of OECD member countries compared with their health system performance. We used Multidimensional Scaling and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis to group all 38 OECD member countries as at January 2024. Clusters were defined according to greenhouse gases per capita, vulnerability to climate change and the United Nations' Human Development Index. Post hoc analyses compared each cluster's performance to the OECD's Health Care Quality Indicators. The countries fell into five profiles: Vulnerable low emitters; Vulnerable aspiring; Middle of the road; Robust aspiring; and Goldilocks zone. Post-hoc analyses revealed strong links between the profiles and health system performance. Characterising countries in a five-dimensional model may help policymakers to share benchmarked country-level information, devise ways to support resilient care practices, better target healthcare investments, and improve access to needed care.}, }
@article {pmid39933778, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, C and Chen, X and Jiang, T}, title = {Economic Inequality Brings About More Inaction Over Climate Change: The Role of Perception, Discussion, and Responsibility.}, journal = {International journal of psychology : Journal international de psychologie}, volume = {60}, number = {2}, pages = {e70022}, doi = {10.1002/ijop.70022}, pmid = {39933778}, issn = {1464-066X}, support = {TJZ223021//General Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research in Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province/ ; 23CSH048//the National Social Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Adult ; Female ; Male ; *Social Responsibility ; Young Adult ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Middle Aged ; Social Perception ; Adolescent ; Aged ; }, abstract = {Emerging studies on climate change inaction predominantly focused on exploring its psychological roots. To extend this line of research, the present study was conducted to investigate whether, how and when economic inequality relates to climate change inaction taking into account subjective and objective economic inequality simultaneously. Utilising two large independent samples (Study 1: N = 1, 066; Study 2: N = 518), our research demonstrated causal links between higher subjective and objective economic inequality and increased climate change inaction. In societies with greater economic inequality, climate change inaction was more prevalent compared to those with lower economic inequality. Notably, these relations were mediated by climate change perception and moderated by climate change discussion and responsibility attribution, respectively. The findings advance existing research by identifying economic inequality as a novel antecedent of climate change inaction and further elucidating the underlying process and boundary condition. Additionally, these insights provide practical guidance for inaction-reduction in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39933586, year = {2025}, author = {Gomes, DGE}, title = {How will we prepare for an uncertain future? The value of open data and code for unborn generations facing climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {292}, number = {2040}, pages = {20241515}, pmid = {39933586}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Uncertainty ; Humans ; }, abstract = {As the impacts of climate change continue to intensify, humans face new challenges to long-term survival. Humans will likely be battling these problems long after 2100, when many climate projections currently end. A more forward-thinking view on our science and its direction may help better prepare for the future of our species. Researchers may consider datasets the basic units of knowledge, whose preservation is arguably more important than the articles that are written about them. Storing data and code in long-term repositories offers insurance against our uncertain future. To ensure open data are useful, data must be FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) and be complete with all appropriate metadata. By embracing open science practices, contemporary scientists give the future of humanity the information to make better decisions, save time and other valuable resources, and increase global equity as access to information is made free. This, in turn, could enable and inspire a diversity of solutions, to the benefit of many. Imagine the collective science conducted, the models built, and the questions answered if all of the data researchers have collectively gathered were organized and immediately accessible and usable by everyone. Investing in open science today may ensure a brighter future for unborn generations.}, }
@article {pmid39933369, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, Z}, title = {Exploring the nexus: Climate change concerns, renewable energy, and carbon emissions.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {376}, number = {}, pages = {124413}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124413}, pmid = {39933369}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Amid growing concerns over sustainable development, understanding how public concerns regarding governmental, legal, societal, and environmental factors interact to influence renewable energy production and carbon emissions is essential. We utilize news-based data and TVP-VAR model to explore these dynamic interlinkages. The findings show that government programs are the most influential drivers within the shock transmission network, significantly impacting renewable energy development. Social events and environmental risks influence renewable energy production and carbon emissions through government programs. We find a two-way relationship: carbon emissions drive renewable energy production, which, in turn, reduces emissions. Legal actions are primarily reactive, adapting to evolving climate concerns and carbon emission trends. Major climate events, such as the 2009 Copenhagen Conference and the 2015 Paris Agreement, reshaped the influence network. Following these events, government programs and social events became stronger drivers of renewable energy development. These insights offer practical implications for designing targeted interventions to accelerate the transition toward sustainability and effective climate action.}, }
@article {pmid39933114, year = {2024}, author = {Walton, AL and Stanifer, SR and Wilson, R and Allen, DH}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change Across the Cancer Control Continuum: Key Considerations for Oncology Nurses.}, journal = {Oncology nursing forum}, volume = {52}, number = {1}, pages = {6-14}, doi = {10.1188/25.ONF.6-14}, pmid = {39933114}, issn = {1538-0688}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Oncology Nursing ; *Neoplasms ; United States ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Nurse's Role ; }, abstract = {Nurses in all specialties have been called upon to take action to address global climate change, climate justice, and health. The American Nurses Association (2023) has specifically tasked nursing professional organizations to (a) educate members on climate change-related illnesses and negative impacts on treatment, (b) collaborate with grassroots organizations for environmental justice efforts, (c) support policies that promote climate mitigation and adaptation, (d) maintain familiarity with climate justice frameworks, and (e) collectively amplify the voice of nursing to strengthen its impact on climate policy. The purpose of this white paper is to enlighten members of the Oncology Nursing Society and oncology nurses at large on the increasing impact of climate change across the cancer control continuum and the pivotal role of the oncology nurse in education, research, clinical practice, and advocacy. Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns that are occurring because of global warming (United Nations, n.d.). Climate change is an often-overlooked social determinant of (or contributor to) health that exacerbates poor health, increases healthcare costs, disproportionately affects some communities, and has a synergistic effect with other social determinants of health (Ragavan et al., 2020). Climate change affects all aspects of the cancer control continuum and impacts some populations disproportionately. Events such as wildfires and floods, exacerbated by climate change, can heighten individuals' exposure to cancer-causing substances, thereby increasing their susceptibility to the disease; reducing such exposure can reduce risks for cancer and positively impact the environment. Air pollution, extended droughts, heat waves, ultraviolet radiation, extreme weather events, and food supply disruptions also impact cancer etiology. Extreme weather events disrupt preventive care, cancer detection, and screening efforts, and create workforce shortages that can lead to suboptimal care. Disruptions in the supply chain and scheduled healthcare visits impact patient care continuity. Additionally, climate-related extreme weather events have an impact on overall survival and disrupt end-of-life care, underscoring the pervasive impact of climate change on cancer care across the continuum. Oncology nurses are strategically positioned to contribute to multifaceted solutions, including obtaining and offering education to fellow healthcare providers, students, patients, community members, and policymakers. Oncology nurse scientists are equipped to spearhead the generation of pertinent new knowledge, and nurses in clinical care can play a crucial role in assisting their healthcare system to become carbon net neutral. Oncology nurses must answer the call to actively engage in climate and health advocacy efforts within their own healthcare systems and in the communities where they live, work, and play. Several resources for education and action are shared.}, }
@article {pmid39932991, year = {2025}, author = {Gastelo, M and Bastos, C and Ortiz, R and Blas, R}, title = {Environmental impact and phenotypic stability in potato clones resistant to late blight Phytophthora infestans (Mont) de Bary, resilient to climate change in Peru.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {e0318255}, pmid = {39932991}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Phytophthora infestans/physiology ; *Solanum tuberosum/microbiology ; Peru ; *Plant Diseases/microbiology ; *Disease Resistance ; *Climate Change ; Phenotype ; Environment ; }, abstract = {Potato is one of the three most important foods in the world's diet and is staple in the Peruvian highlands. This crop is affected by late blight, a disease that if not controlled in time can decimate production. The oomycete (Phytophthora infestans) causing this disease is controlled using fungicides, which affect the environment and human health, another form of control is the use of resistant cultivars. 30 potato clones from the LBHTC2 population were evaluated, with the objective of selecting clones with high levels of resistance to this disease, stable for tuber yield, low environmental impact and high economic profitability. The clones were planted in three field experiments in the 2021-2022 growing season. Two experiments with and without late blight chemical control in Oxapampa and Huánuco and one experiment under normal conditions of a potato crop in El Mantaro, Junin, using randomized complete blocks with three replications. The cultivars Yungay, Amarilis and Kory were used as controls for late blight resistance and tuber yield. Late blight resistance and environmental impact were determined based on experiments with and without control in Huánuco and Oxapampa. Yield stability and economic profitability were evaluated based on information from the three experiments. Clones CIP316375.102, CIP316361.187, CIP316367.117, CIP316356.149, CIP316367.147 were the ones that presented the highest yields, high Late blight resistance, phenotypically stable for tuber yield, with low environmental impact and high economic profitability, superior to control cultivars. These clones have high potential for sustainable production systems that allow reducing environmental impact, increasing economic profitability and improving producers' living standards.}, }
@article {pmid39932038, year = {2025}, author = {Zhao, J and Salthammer, T and Schieweck, A and Uhde, E and Hussein, T}, title = {Long-term prediction of climate change impacts on indoor particle pollution - case study of a residential building in Germany.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1039/d4em00663a}, pmid = {39932038}, issn = {2050-7895}, abstract = {Extreme weather phenomena are increasing in nature, which affects indoor air quality and especially particle concentrations in several ways: (1) changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, (2) indoor particle formation from gas-phase reactions, (3) building characteristics, (4) particle dynamic processes, and (5) residential behavior. However, there are only a few studies that have examined future indoor particle concentrations in relation to climate change, even though indoor spaces are intended to protect people from local climate influences and health risks posed by pollutants. Consequently, this work focuses on the expected long- and short-term concentrations of airborne particles in residences. For this purpose, we applied the computer-based Indoor Air Quality Climate Change (IAQCC) model to a residential building as part of a case study. The selected building physics data represent a large part of the German building structure. The long-term prediction is based on the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). When assuming that the activities of residents remain unchanged, our long-term simulations (by 2100) show that the decreasing outdoor particle concentration will compensate for the indoor chemistry driven particle increase, leading to an overall decreasing trend in the indoor particle concentration. Nevertheless, outdoor air pollution events, such as dust storms and ozone episodes, can significantly affect indoor air quality in the short term. It becomes clear that measures are needed to prevent and minimize the effects of outdoor pollutants under extreme weather conditions. This also includes the equipment of buildings with regard to appropriate construction design and smart technologies in order to ensure the protection of human health.}, }
@article {pmid39929869, year = {2025}, author = {Zhu, K and Zhu, Y and Zhao, Z and Wang, Y and Guo, X and Du, Y and Fu, J and Gao, J}, title = {Ecological vulnerability and driving factors in the himalayan transboundary landscape under global climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {4895}, pmid = {39929869}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2019QZKK040103//Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition Program/ ; 2019QZKK040103//Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition Program/ ; 2019QZKK040103//Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition Program/ ; 2019QZKK040103//Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition Program/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change and human activities are placing significant pressure on the carrying capacity of the Himalayan alpine ecosystem. This study focuses on seven transboundary protected areas and national parks in the Himalayas, including China's Everest National Nature Reserve and Nepal's Sagarmatha National Park, Manaslu Conservation Area, Langtang National Park, Gauri Sankar Conservation Area, Makalu Barun National Park, and Kanchenjunga Conservation Area. We used the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) model to assess ecological vulnerability, analyzing land use changes and landscape patterns from 2000 to 2020 to identify key drivers of landscape changes. The fragmentation of ecological landscapes initially increased and then decreased, with values of 4.05, 3.99, and 3.86 observed, indicating a general reduction in regional ecological vulnerability. The south slope demonstrated lower ecological vulnerability than the north slope. Key factors influencing patch density included annual average temperature, population density, and annual precipitation. Annual precipitation, temperature, and the normalized vegetation index were the primary drivers of the largest patch index. The landscape shape index was most affected by precipitation, vegetation index, and slope, while the spread index was primarily influenced by precipitation and slope. The homogeneity index was most strongly related to annual precipitation, vegetation index, and normalized water index. This study provides a representative case for transboundary cooperation in ecological conservation, offering insights into sustainable development strategies for cross-border regions in the Himalayas.}, }
@article {pmid39928625, year = {2025}, author = {Delos, MC and Johnson, CG and Weiskopf, SR and Cushing, JA}, title = {Climate change effects on ecosystem services: Disentangling drivers of mixed responses.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {e0306017}, pmid = {39928625}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a pervasive hazard that impacts the supply and demand of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) that maintain human well-being. A recent review found that the impacts of climate change on EGS are sometimes mixed, posing challenges for managers who need to adapt to these changes. We expand on earlier work by exploring drivers of varying responses of EGS to climate within studies. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers directly assessing climate change impacts on the supply, demand, or monetary value of 'provisioning EGS', 'regulating EGS', or 'cultural EGS'. Ultimately, 44 papers published from December 2014 to March 2018 were analyzed. Nearly 66% of EGS were assessed for higher-income countries despite how lower-income countries disproportionately face negative climate impacts. Around 59% of observations or projections were mixed responses of EGS to climate change. Differences in climate impacts to EGS across space or climate scenarios were the most common causes of mixed responses, followed by mixed responses across time periods assessed. Disaggregating findings by drivers is valuable because mixed responses were often due to multiple drivers of variation. Carefully considering the decision context and desired outcome of a study will help select appropriate methodology to detect EGS variation. Although studies have often assessed relevant drivers of variation, assessing interactions of other sources of uncertainty and both climate and non-climate drivers may support more effective management decisions that holistically account for different values in the face of uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid39927913, year = {2025}, author = {Chen, K and Lu, Y and Krumholz, HM}, title = {Wildfires, Compound Extreme Events, Climate Change, and Cardiovascular Health.}, journal = {Journal of the American College of Cardiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2025.01.009}, pmid = {39927913}, issn = {1558-3597}, }
@article {pmid39927904, year = {2025}, author = {Parker, ER and Rosenbach, M and Davis, MDP}, title = {The Voice of the American Dermatological Association: 2025 Official Policy Statement on Climate Change.}, journal = {The Journal of investigative dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jid.2024.12.015}, pmid = {39927904}, issn = {1523-1747}, }
@article {pmid39927352, year = {2024}, author = {Vikash Kumar, KC and Dhungana, AR and Khand, PB}, title = {Gender perspective on climate change adaption strategies in livestock farming in Gandaki Province, Nepal.}, journal = {Open veterinary journal}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {3363-3374}, pmid = {39927352}, issn = {2218-6050}, mesh = {Nepal ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Animals ; Male ; *Animal Husbandry/methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Livestock ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Humans ; Sex Factors ; Middle Aged ; Farmers/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has a significant impact on livestock farming around the globe. Farmers have adopted different strategies to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change. Females in developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change impacts and have lower adaptive capacity and they bear additional roles and responsibilities in livestock rearing compared to their male counterparts.<br><br>AIM: The main aim of this study is to examine the gender perspective on climate change adoption strategies in livestock farming in Gandaki province, Nepal.<br><br>METHODS: A multistage random sampling technique was employed to select 1,158 households from five districts in Gandaki province, western Nepal. A household head or household member who was 45 years or older resided in that area for at least 15 years and owned at least one primary livestock at the time of the survey was selected as the ultimate respondent from each selected household. Both structured and unstructured questionnaires were prepared. A structured questionnaire was used for the household survey, while a checklist (guideline) was prepared for focus group discussions. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews, and both descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: The results revealed that buffalo was the primary livestock among farmers. More than half of farmers, both men and women were aware of the impact of climate change on livestock. While this study did not find significant gender-based differences in adaptation strategies, the odds of adoption are higher among males than females. Jobs other than agriculture and livestock, as well as access to credit, emerged as key determining factors associated with adaptation strategies among farmers in Gandaki province.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There is no significant gender-based difference in adaptation strategies; however, employment outside agriculture and livestock, along with access to credit, are the key determining factors associated with adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39925372, year = {2024}, author = {Ali Abaker Omer, A and Zhang, CH and Liu, J and Shan, ZG}, title = {Comprehensive review of mapping climate change impacts on tea cultivation: bibliometric and content analysis of trends, influences, adaptation strategies, and future directions.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1542793}, pmid = {39925372}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change has a profound impact on tea cultivation, posing significant challenges to yield, quality, and sustainability due to stressors such as drought, temperature fluctuations, and elevated CO2 levels. This study aims to address these challenges by identifying and synthesizing key themes, influential contributions, and effective adaptation strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on tea production. A systematic bibliometric and content analysis was conducted on 328 peer-reviewed documents (2004-2023), following the PRISMA methodology. Performance analysis using Bibliometrix examined trends in publication output, leading contributors, and geographical distribution, while science mapping with VOSviewer revealed collaboration networks and thematic clusters. A detailed review of highly cited studies highlighted the primary climate variables affecting tea cultivation and identified innovative adaptation strategies, as well as critical knowledge gaps. The results show significant progress in understanding the physiological, biochemical, and molecular responses of tea plants to climate-induced stressors, including antioxidant mechanisms, secondary metabolite regulation, and genomic adaptations. Despite these advancements, challenges remain, particularly regarding the combined effects of multiple stressors, long-term adaptation strategies, and the socioeconomic implications of climate change. The findings underscore the need for interdisciplinary approaches that integrate molecular, ecological, and socioeconomic research to address these issues. This study provides a solid foundation for guiding future research, fostering innovative adaptation strategies, and informing policy interventions to ensure sustainable tea production in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid39925059, year = {2024}, author = {Cha, SN and Qi, BR and Hu, HX and A, L and Yong, X and Ao, W and Bao, JH and Cao, W}, title = {Prediction of the potential distribution area of endangered medicinal plant Gymnadenia conopsea in China under the background of climate change.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {11}, pages = {3023-3030}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202411.023}, pmid = {39925059}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Endangered Species ; *Climate Change ; *Plants, Medicinal/growth &amp; development/chemistry ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forecasting ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {Gymnadenia conopsea is an endangered medicinal plant. Due to climate change and human activities, as well as the low reproductive capacity, the wild resources of G. conopsea are extremely scarce and it has been listed in the Chinese National Second Level Protected Plant List. Predicting the potential suitable distribution area of G. conopsea is crucial for the conservation and sustainable utilization. With climate and soil data from 118 distribution points, we used MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS technology to predict the suitable distribution area of G. conopsea in China under future climate change. The results showed that the area value (ACU) under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.808, indicating good prediction performance. The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of G. conopsea were mean temperature of the warmest quarter, seasonal precipita-tion, soil factors such as the subsoil sodicity (30-100 cm), topsoil gravel (0-30 cm), subsoil cation exchange capacity (30-100 cm), annual precipitation and precipitation of the driest month. At present, the potential total suitable distribution area of G. conopsea in China was about 50.22×10[5] km[2], concentrated in north, northeast and southwest China, including Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Sichuan, Shanxi and Southeast Xizang. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat range would shrink, and migrate to higher altitude regions such as Xizang, Yunnan, and Sichuan, indicating that global warming may pose a threat. This result could provide scientific basis for the ecological protection, resource development, and sustainable utilization strategies of G. conopsea germplasm resources.}, }
@article {pmid39924996, year = {2025}, author = {Muhammad, M and Wahab, A and Waheed, A and Hakeem, KR and Mohamed, HI and Basit, A and Toor, MD and Liu, YH and Li, L and Li, WJ}, title = {Navigating Climate Change: Exploring the Dynamics Between Plant-Soil Microbiomes and Their Impact on Plant Growth and Productivity.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {e70057}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.70057}, pmid = {39924996}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Soil Microbiology ; *Microbiota ; *Plant Development ; Agriculture/methods ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Plants/microbiology ; Rhizosphere ; }, abstract = {Understanding the intricate interplay between plant and soil microbiomes and their effects on plant growth and productivity is vital in a rapidly changing climate. This review explores the interconnected impacts of climate change on plant-soil microbiomes and their profound effects on agricultural productivity. The ongoing rise in global temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and extreme weather events significantly affect the composition and function of microbial communities in the rhizosphere. Changes in microbial diversity and activity due to rising temperatures impact nutrient cycling, microbial enzyme synthesis, soil health and pest and disease management. These changes also influence the dynamics of soil microbe communities and their capability to promote plant health. As the climate changes, plants' adaptive capacity and microbial partners become increasingly crucial for sustaining agriculture. Mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on plant growth and agricultural productivity requires a comprehensive understanding of the interconnected mechanisms driving these processes. It highlights various strategies for mitigating and adapting to environmental challenges, including soil management, stress-tolerant crops, cover cropping, sustainable land and water management, crop rotation, organic amendments and the development of climate-resilient crop varieties. It emphasises the need for further exploration of plant-soil microbiomes within the broader context of climate change. Promising mitigation strategies, including precision agriculture and targeted microbiome modifications, offer valuable pathways for future research and practical implementation of global food security and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39923868, year = {2025}, author = {Saadene, Y and Salhi, A}, title = {Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis under Climate Change Scenarios in the Maghreb Region (2021-2100).}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {107548}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2025.107548}, pmid = {39923868}, issn = {1873-6254}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change presents a significant challenge to global public health, especially regarding vector-borne diseases such as cutaneous leishmaniasiS. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on the distribution of CL in North Africa, with a focus on Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco.<br><br>METHODS: We analyzed historical epidemiological and climatic data from 2000 to 2020 and employed a Generalized Additive Model to assess the influence of climatic variables including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation on CL incidence. Additionally, climate projection data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) under the RCP 2.6 scenario were utilized to predict future CL incidence from 2021 to 2100.<br><br>RESULTS: The findings indicate a probable increase in CL cases in Mediterranean coastal areas, particularly in eastern Tunisia, Algeria, and parts of Morocco, due to rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns. The analysis revealed varying temporal peaks in CL incidence across the three countries: short-term for Algeria (2025), mid-term for Morocco (2065), and long-term for Tunisia (2085).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the need for region-specific surveillance and response systems and emphasizes the importance of integrating climate forecasts into public health strategies to mitigate the risks of CL spread under changing climatic conditions in North Africa.}, }
@article {pmid39923484, year = {2025}, author = {Cao, F and Liu, L and Rong, Y and Jiang, N and Zhao, L and Zhang, Q and Wu, Z and Zhao, W and Li, S}, title = {Climate change enhances greening while human activities accelerate degradation in northern China's grasslands.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {966}, number = {}, pages = {178570}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178570}, pmid = {39923484}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Northern China's grasslands play a pivotal role in livestock production, energy utilization, and ecosystem balance, both domestically and globally. However, they exhibit pronounced temporal variability and marked spatial heterogeneity. Since most existing studies rely on single vegetation indices and regional-scale analyses, they may introduce biases in interpreting grassland dynamics and their underlying drivers. To address this gap, we integrated both functional and structural indices - Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), solar-Induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Leaf Area Index (LAI) - to systematically investigate spatiotemporal trends across various grassland types in northern China. Using partial derivative analysis, we quantified the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to these observed vegetation trends. Results indicated that over 70 % of grassland areas, especially temperate grasslands, showed an overall increase in vegetation indices, while a decline was observed in the southwestern alpine grasslands. Climate change was the primary driver of grassland greening (56.55 %-63.83 %), primarily through increased precipitation in temperate grasslands and rising temperatures in alpine grasslands. Human activities contributed substantially to greening (36.17 %-43.45 %), especially in desertified temperate grasslands (e.g., Mu Us Sandy Land, Gansu, Ningxia, Xinjiang) and Qinghai alpine meadows, mainly through farmland restoration and desertification control. Conversely, human activities also served as the primary driver of grassland degradation (51.70 %-69.64 %) in certain alpine regions, where overgrazing and population growth - compounded by rising temperatures and declining soil moisture - led to significant vegetation losses. Moreover, 72.66 % of temperate grasslands demonstrated strong coupling between vegetation structure and function, whereas 57.59 % of alpine grasslands exhibited increasing GPP alongside declines in both LAI and SIF. Overall, these findings underscore the spatial heterogeneity of grassland responses to climatic and anthropogenic drivers, highlighting the necessity of employing multiple vegetation indices to guide targeted and effective grassland management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39923082, year = {2025}, author = {Greening, SS and Pascarosa, LR and Munster, AL and Gagne, RB and Ellis, JC}, title = {Climate change as a wildlife health threat: a scoping review.}, journal = {BMC veterinary research}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {60}, pmid = {39923082}, issn = {1746-6148}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; *Animals, Wild ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The definition of wildlife health continues to expand with the recognition that health is more than the absence of disease. Practitioners are working to integrate concepts such as vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience into wildlife health research, surveillance, and management actions. Here, we performed a scoping review to identify scholarly articles from 2008 onwards with a focus on climate change impacts on wildlife health. Searches were conducted in Web of Science, Zoological Record, Scopus, Ovid CAB Abstracts, and ProQuest Dissertations and Theses. Articles were screened for relevance and fed into an AI-based thematic analysis that identified recurring themes across the literature. Each theme was manually reviewed and refined to help describe the scope and depth of existing literature, identify key themes, and assess potential knowledge gaps.<br><br>RESULTS: In total, 2,249 citations were retrieved of which 372 were included in further analysis after applying a set of inclusion/exclusion criteria. On closer inspection, 30.4% (113/372) of the papers were focused on climate-associated impacts on vector distribution. For this reason, two thematic analyses were performed, one which only included the subset of papers focused on climate change and vector distribution (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;113) and another including the remaining papers focused on climate-associated impacts on wildlife health (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;259). Amongst the subset of papers focused on vector distribution, top themes included concepts related to pathogen transmission dynamics, human/public health, and pathogen prevalence, while health papers focused on concepts related to increasing temperatures, species home ranges and distribution, and changing environmental variables.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A large number of the papers retrieved in the literature search focused on how climate change impacts the distribution and abundance of host, vector, and pathogen species, remaining disease-centric in their approach. Papers including themes related to management actions were limited reflecting some uncertainty on how best to respond and prepare for climate change. Further discussion is needed on how wildlife health concepts can be used to help inform on-the-ground management actions in the face of climate uncertainty, this includes the collection of baseline health data and research into health metrics that could be used as indicators of resilience at the ecosystem level.}, }
@article {pmid39922677, year = {2025}, author = {Poole, JA and Nadeau, KC}, title = {Climate Change and the Practice of Allergy and Immunology.}, journal = {The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. In practice}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {295-297}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaip.2024.11.024}, pmid = {39922677}, issn = {2213-2201}, }
@article {pmid39921955, year = {2025}, author = {Guédé, KG and Yu, Z and Simonovic, SP and Gu, H and Emani, GF and Badji, O and Chen, X and Sika, B and Adiaffi, B}, title = {Combined effect of landuse/landcover and climate change projection on the spatiotemporal streamflow response in cryosphere catchment in the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {376}, number = {}, pages = {124353}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124353}, pmid = {39921955}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate and landuse/landcover (LULC) change are primary drivers significantly impacting basin hydrology. However, in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), future streamflow projections that consider the combined effects of climate change and LULC change are lacking. This study aims to enhance the accuracy of future streamflow simulations in the Lhasa River Basin (LRB). It is the initial attempt to evaluate future streamflow variation in the TP that considers the sensitivity of crucial hydrological components (snow, glacier, and permafrost) to warming trends, along with future LULC changes and bias-corrected climate projections. Using the Water Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM), we assessed the individual and combined impacts of climate and LULC change on spatiotemporal streamflow variations from 2010 to 2099 in the LRB. The model includes the entire cryosphere component, essential for regions like the Tibetan Plateau. Future LULC patterns were predicted using the Cellular Automata-Markov model, while multiple bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) provided climate change data under two emission scenarios. Results suggest urban areas may expand to 83.9% by 2090 compared to 2020. Future precipitation and temperature trends in the LRB indicate an overall increase, except for a decline in winter precipitation. The impacts of LULC change and climate variability on streamflow differ among sub-basins. LULC change alone could lead to a 7.01% annual streamflow increase, while future climate change may increase annual streamflow by 7.37% to 71.74% compared to the baseline (1980-2009). When both drivers are combined, streamflow increases are projected to range from 9.53% to 82.36%. Although LULC change is a lesser factor, its implications in streamflow projections in TP should not be overlooked. The findings of this study can assist policymakers in managing the challenges posed by climate and LULC change in the LRB.}, }
@article {pmid39921594, year = {2025}, author = {Martins, WA}, title = {Navigating epilepsy care in the wake of climate change.}, journal = {Epileptic disorders : international epilepsy journal with videotape}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/epd2.70000}, pmid = {39921594}, issn = {1950-6945}, }
@article {pmid39920099, year = {2025}, author = {Huang, J and Bu, Y}, title = {Who views what from whom? Social media exposure and the Chinese public's risk perceptions of climate change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.17716}, pmid = {39920099}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {23BSH103//National Social Science Fund of China/ ; FJ2023B127//Fujian Provincial Federation of Social Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {The Chinese public is increasingly experiencing the local impacts of climate change, whereas the government downplays its domestic effects and critical opinions on environmental governance. As climate change perceptions are crucial for individual risk management, adaptation, and collective climate actions, it is vital to explore how these perceptions are shaped. Given the increasing significance of social media in climate change discourse, this study employs survey data from the 2021 Environmental Risk Perceptions and Environmental Behaviors of Urban Residents Project to investigate how social media exposure influences risk perceptions of climate change among the Chinese public. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, this study examines the effect of exposure to environmental information, exposure to opinion diversity, individuals' social media network ties to environmental opinion leaders, and the interaction between social media exposure and cultural values. The results indicate that in the contexts where climate change is neither politically divisive nor openly debated, social media exposure to diverse opinions and social media network ties to environmental scholars positively predict risk perceptions. Additionally, egalitarianism and fatalism are found to moderate the effect of these connections with environmental scholars. This study extends previous research, which focuses largely on the association between the frequency of social media exposure and risk perceptions of climate change, by revealing a more comprehensive and nuanced process that links social media exposure to climate change perceptions.}, }
@article {pmid39919087, year = {2025}, author = {Khan, MH and Macherla, S and Anupam, A}, title = {Nonlinear connectedness of conventional crypto-assets and sustainable crypto-assets with climate change: A complex systems modelling approach.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {e0318647}, pmid = {39919087}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Models, Theoretical ; Algorithms ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting/methods ; }, abstract = {Earlier studies used classical time series models to forecast the nonlinear connectedness of conventional crypto-assets with CO2 emissions. For the first time, this study aims to provide a data-driven Nonlinear System Identification technique to study the nonlinear connectedness of crypto-assets with CO2 emissions. Using daily data from January 2, 2019, to March 31, 2023, we investigate the nonlinear connectedness among conventional crypto-assets, sustainable crypto-assets, and CO2 emissions based on our proposed model, Multiple Inputs Single Output (MISO) Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX). Intriguingly, the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model improves with the inclusion of exogenous input variables (conventional and sustainable crypto-assets). Overall, our results reveal that conventional crypto-assets exhibit slightly stronger connectedness with CO2 emissions compared to sustainable crypto-assets. These findings suggest that, to some extent, sustainable crypto-assets provide a solution to the environmental issues related to CO2 emissions. However, further improvements in sustainable crypto-assets through technological advances are required to develop more energy-efficient decentralised finance consensus algorithms, with the aim of reshaping the cryptocurrency ecosystem into an environmentally sustainable market.}, }
@article {pmid39918531, year = {2025}, author = {Heyn, PC and Terhune, EA and Godha, K and Hirsch, MA}, title = {Protecting Your Health and Brain Against Climate Change: An Information Page for Older Adults.}, journal = {Archives of physical medicine and rehabilitation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.apmr.2025.01.418}, pmid = {39918531}, issn = {1532-821X}, }
@article {pmid39917963, year = {2025}, author = {Ledoux, JB and Gomez-Garrido, J and Cruz, F and Camara Ferreira, F and Matos, A and Sarropoulou, X and Ramirez-Calero, S and Aurelle, D and Lopez-Sendino, P and Grayson, NE and Moore, BS and Antunes, A and Aguilera, L and Gut, M and Salces-Ortiz, J and Fernández, R and Linares, C and Garrabou, J and Alioto, T}, title = {Chromosome-Level Genome Assembly and Annotation of Corallium rubrum: A Mediterranean Coral Threatened by Overharvesting and Climate Change.}, journal = {Genome biology and evolution}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {39917963}, issn = {1759-6653}, support = {UIDB/04423/2020//Catalan Initiative for the Earth Biogenome Project/ ; //FCT-Funda&#xe7;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; //Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; //Instituto de Salud Carlos III/ ; //Generalitat de Catalunya/ ; //Departament de Salut/ ; //Departament de Recerca i Universitats/ ; 1166-39417//European FEDER Fund/ ; //Excellence Initiative of Aix-Marseille University-A*MIDEX/ ; //French "Investissements d'Avenir" program/ ; RYC2017-22492//Ram&#xf3;n y Cajal fellowship/ ; //ESF/ ; PID2019-108824GA-I00//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; /ERC_/European Research Council/International ; 948281//European's Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program/ ; AGAUR 2021-SGR00420//Departament d'Economia i Coneixement de la Generalitat de Catalunya/ ; //Spanish government/ ; CEX2019-000928-S//Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence/ ; //ICREA/ ; //ICREA Academia program/ ; NERRS NA22NOS4200050//Margaret A. Davidson Graduate Fellowship/ ; 2021 SGR 01073//Marine Conservation research group-MedRecover/ ; }, mesh = {*Anthozoa/genetics ; Animals ; *Genome ; *Climate Change ; Molecular Sequence Annotation ; Chromosomes ; Endangered Species ; }, abstract = {Reference genomes are key resources in biodiversity conservation. Yet, sequencing efforts are not evenly distributed across the tree of life raising concerns over our ability to enlighten conservation with genomic data. Good-quality reference genomes remain scarce in octocorals while these species are highly relevant targets for conservation. Here, we present the first annotated reference genome in the red coral, Corallium rubrum (Linnaeus, 1758), a habitat-forming octocoral from the Mediterranean and neighboring Atlantic, impacted by overharvesting and anthropogenic warming-induced mass mortality events. Combining long reads from Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT), Illumina paired-end reads for improving the base accuracy of the ONT-based genome assembly, and Arima Hi-C contact data to place the sequences into chromosomes, we assembled a genome of 532 Mb (20 chromosomes, 309 scaffolds) with contig and scaffold N50 of 1.6 and 18.5 Mb, respectively. Fifty percent of the sequence (L50) was contained in seven superscaffolds. The consensus quality value of the final assembly was 42, and the single and duplicated gene completeness reported by BUSCO was 86.4% and 1%, respectively (metazoa_odb10 database). We annotated 26,348 protein-coding genes and 34,548 noncoding transcripts. This annotated chromosome-level genome assembly, one of the first in octocorals and the first in Scleralcyonacea order, is currently used in a project based on whole-genome resequencing dedicated to the conservation and management of C. rubrum.}, }
@article {pmid39915536, year = {2025}, author = {de Oliveira-Júnior, JF and Mendes, D and Porto, HD and Cardoso, KRA and Neto, JAF and da Silva, EBC and de Aquino Pereira, M and Mendes, MCD and Baracho, BBD and Jamjareegulgarn, P}, title = {Analysis of drought and extreme precipitation events in Thailand: trends, climate modeling, and implications for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {4501}, pmid = {39915536}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {RE-KRIS/FF67/008//Thailand Science Research and Innovation Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Thailand is under threat from climate change, where extreme climate events are expected to intensify and increase in the coming decades. The objective is to assess extreme drought and rainfall events in Thailand based on climate modeling through an ensemble for future projections of extreme climate indices. The climate indices used were Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Maximum Number of Consecutive Summer Days (CSU), Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI), and Maximum Number of Consecutive Wet Days (WW) derived from simulations of an ensemble composed of six models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) via the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) with the backpropagation method. The projections were based on three scenarios: historical (20th century); intermediate forcing (RCP 4.5) and high forcing (RCP 8.5). The results of the climate indices pointed to significant regional differences in Thailand. Historically, the CDD indicated 35 consecutive dry days in the northern (N) and northeastern (NE) parts of Thailand, whereas the southern region showed CDD values of fewer than 10 consecutive dry days. In the R4.5 scenario, a meridional pattern emerged in CDD, increasing from east (E) to west (W). In the R8.5 scenario, the number of consecutive dry days increased across the entire country. The WSDI stood out in both the R4.5 and R8.5 scenarios, with an increase in the duration of warm spells in Thailand. The CSU did not perform satisfactorily in the scenarios adopted. Historically, the CWD indicated consecutive wet days in the N and NE, whereas in the R4.5 and R8.5 scenarios, this was observed only in the Central and Southern regions. Historically, the maximum number of consecutive rainy days varied in the NE and South via WW. In the R4.5 and R8.5 scenarios, there was a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive rainy days across Thailand. Projections based on climate indices indicate that Thailand needs to adopt mitigation measures across its regions to neutralize the impacts of extreme drought and rainfall events on socioeconomic sectors, particularly in tourism, industry, agricultural production, and food security for its population.}, }
@article {pmid39914710, year = {2025}, author = {Duan, H and Sun, S and Yang, W and Yu, L and Gao, Q and Wang, H and Wang, R and Zheng, P}, title = {Future climate change facilitates the herb drought-tolerant species distribution than woody species.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {270}, number = {}, pages = {121039}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.121039}, pmid = {39914710}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Drought-tolerant species play a crucial role in maintaining ecosystem services in arid and semi-arid regions wherein subject to rapid climate change. However, how future climate change affect the distribution of drought-tolerant plants with different growth forms (e.g., herb and woody) remains largely unknown. Here, we used the MaxEnt model to simulate the potential species distribution under current conditions, and predicted the future species distribution of 82 common drought-tolerant plants in China under two time periods (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585) in the future. We found that the western and northern regions of China are hotspots for drought-tolerant plant distribution. Compared with other predictors, aridity index (AI) explained the largest portion of variation (45%) in the distribution patterns of drought-tolerant plant plants. Climate change would change the distribution of drought-tolerant plants, with more than 50% of the species showing a trend of shrinking ranges in China. For both herb and woody plants, the highest turnover values were observed under SSP585 for the period 2081-2100, reaching 37.67% and 29.08%, respectively. Our results highlighted that herb and woody plants respond differently to climate change stresses, with herb plants projected to greatly expand their ranges in the future. These insights are vital for evaluating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and informing the development of effective adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39914320, year = {2025}, author = {Gouvêa, LP and Krause-Jensen, D and Duarte, CM and Assis, J}, title = {Projected impacts of future climate change on the aboveground biomass of seagrasses at global scale.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {966}, number = {}, pages = {178680}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178680}, pmid = {39914320}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Seagrasses are crucial marine ecosystems that have experienced declines due to anthropogenic and climate change impacts. The projected future climate change suggests additional seagrass losses, but no global-scale estimates are currently available on the potential changes in aboveground biomass of seagrasses. We modelled and quantified the current potential aboveground biomass (AGB) of seagrasses on the global scale and projected future AGB under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, from low emissions (SSP1-1.9) to high emissions (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). A machine learning algorithm (Boosted Regression Trees) fitted a comprehensive AGB dataset against biological and anthropogenic meaningful predictors. The model performed with high accuracy (deviance explained: 0.83), highlighting the role of genus and temperature conditions in defining global AGB patterns. The model estimated a present-day average AGB of 133.83 gDW·m[2] (DW, dry weight) and a total global AGB of 0.0673 Pg DW. Future projections were highly dependent on the emission scenario, with losses in AGB ranging between 4.25 % and 9.25 % and in overall AGB between 9.96 % and 10.26 % across scenarios. Particularly, the higher emission scenario projected severe regional losses along the coastlines of the Tropical Eastern Pacific, the Eastern Indo-Pacific, the Temperate Northern Pacific, and the Tropical Atlantic, and gains along the Temperate Southern Africa and the Arctic regions. Our global estimates underline that fulfilling the Paris Agreement, as well as conserving and monitoring populations most affected by combined anthropogenic pressures would help to limit seagrass AGB declines, thereby supporting the multiple ecological services of seagrasses.}, }
@article {pmid39914080, year = {2025}, author = {Walton, H and Dajnak, D and Holland, M and Evangelopoulos, D and Wood, D and Brand, C and Assareh, N and Stewart, G and Beddows, A and Lee, SY and Fecht, D and Liu, Y and Davies, B and Goodman, A and Vu, T and Beevers, S}, title = {Health and associated economic benefits of reduced air pollution and increased physical activity from climate change policies in the UK.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {196}, number = {}, pages = {109283}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2025.109283}, pmid = {39914080}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Climate change policies do not always include analysis of air quality and physical activity co-benefits. We compared business as usual (BAU) UK policy with Net Zero scenarios from the UK Climate Change Committee for road transport and building sectors. We quantified and monetised the health benefits of the Balanced Net Zero (BNZP) and Widespread Innovation (WI) Pathways. Air pollution concentrations were predicted using Chemical Transport Models and population-weighted. Shifts from car to walking and cycling for transport were converted to METhrs/week. Literature concentration-response functions were combined with baseline rates from routine statistics/other sources. Mortality and multi-morbidity impacts were calculated using lifetable analysis, and an incidence/prevalence model from 2019 to 2154 (a lifetime after 2050). Monetary values were applied to the results. The BNZP policy compared with BAU gave 4.9 (95 % confidence interval 1.0-9.0) million life-years gained (LYG) (UK population, to 2154), including 1.1 (0.7-1.6) million LYG from active travel improvements. Avoided COPD and childhood asthma cases were 201,000 (150,000 - 250,000) and 192,000 (64,600-311,000). The monetised air quality morbidity benefits (£52.1 (36.4 - 67.8) billion) substantially added to the air quality mortality benefits (£77.9 (42.9 to 90.8) billion). Total yearly monetised benefits for BNZP vs BAU summed to 2154 (air pollution/active travel) were £153 (122 to 184) billion (core); 278 (228 to 334) billion (+outcomes with weaker evidence). Adding the effects of air pollution reductions on disease incidence, with effects of air pollution and physical activity on mortality, increases the monetised benefits that may justify Net Zero policies in cost-benefit analysis.}, }
@article {pmid39913568, year = {2025}, author = {Stroeve, JC and Notz, D and Dawson, J and Schuur, EAG and Dahl-Jensen, D and Giesse, C}, title = {Disappearing landscapes: The Arctic at +2.7°C global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {387}, number = {6734}, pages = {616-621}, doi = {10.1126/science.ads1549}, pmid = {39913568}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Under current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, global warming is projected to reach 2.7°C above preindustrial levels. In this review, we show that at such a level of warming, the Arctic would be transformed beyond contemporary recognition: Virtually every day of the year would have air temperatures higher than preindustrial extremes, the Arctic Ocean would be essentially ice free for several months in summer, the area of Greenland that reaches melting temperatures for at least a month would roughly quadruple, and the area of permafrost would be roughly half of what it was in preindustrial times. These geophysical changes go along with widespread ecosystem disruptions and infrastructure damage, which, as we show here, could be substantially reduced by increased efforts to limit global warming.}, }
@article {pmid39912826, year = {2025}, author = {Sahoo, M and Bentley, P and Smith, A and Blackbourn, P and Howarth, K and Bau, D and Thornton, S}, title = {A laboratory-scale physical model for freeze-thaw studies in soil columns under simulated climate change conditions.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39912826}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Responses of soils to climate warming during winter can be studied by monitoring soil temperature variations in the vadose zone. Freeze-thaw cycles during winter can have a significant impact on soil biogeochemical and physical processes. Observing soil temperature at different depths offers important insights into heat availability, which influences biogeochemical activity and solute movement driven by temperature gradients. However, it is difficult to replicate the relevant processes in soil columns without maintaining freezing temperatures with an unfrozen soil layer below the freezing interface. This paper describes the development and experimental verification of a laboratory-scale physical model to assess the effect of freeze-thaw cycles on biogeochemical processes in unsaturated soil. The results show that the experimental design can (i) induce cyclical freezing of soil down to desirable depths, (ii) maintain vertical temperature gradients and (iii) ensure the rest of the column remains unfrozen below the freezing interface for pore water sampling. The rate of freezing is suitable for quick freeze-thaw cycles (0.19 °C/min). This setup can be further developed to observe solute transport and attenuation in variably-saturated soil and soil moisture status for different freeze-thaw regimes under simulated climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid39911654, year = {2024}, author = {Rui, H and Luo, B and Wang, Y and Zhu, L and Zhu, Q}, title = {Quantitative impacts of climate change and human activities on grassland growth in Xinjiang, China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1497248}, pmid = {39911654}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Grassland is an important vegetation type in Xinjiang, China, playing a crucial role in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Previous studies have shown that both climate change and human activities significantly impact grassland growth. However, research quantifying the contributions of these two factors to grassland changes is still not thorough enough. This study utilized remote sensing data, i.e., Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), to analyze the spatial trends of grassland changes from 1982 to 2015, and the correlation between NDVI and climate factors. Then, relative contributions of climate change and human activities to grassland changes were explored across Xinjiang. The results indicated that there was a significant spatial heterogeneity in the interannual variations of NDVI in the study area, showing an overall increasing trend (covering 62.5% of the study area). This was mainly attributed to the warming and humidifying trend of Xinjiang's climate in recent decades, where increased precipitation and rising temperatures promoted grassland growth. The main regions with increased NDVI included the western part of Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, the southern part of Tacheng Prefecture, and the northwestern part of the Tarim Basin; while the areas with decreased NDVI were mainly located in the western part of the study area, e.g., the Ili River basin, and the Tekes River basin. Compared to precipitation, NDVI showed a stronger correlation with temperature, which was related to temperature promoting organic matter decomposition and enhancing vegetation nutrient utilization efficiency. NDVI was negatively correlated with VPD, mainly due to the effects of transpiration and surface evaporation. In terms of grassland growth, climate change (52%) contributed as much as human activity (48%). For the grassland reduction, human activities played a larger role. Overall, in mountainous and flat areas, human activities contributed more (64.29%) than climate change (35.71%), including activities such as grazing and urbanization.}, }
@article {pmid39910327, year = {2025}, author = {Aniye, HW and Bekele, T and Worku, W}, title = {Trends of climate variability and its association with farmers' perceptions of climate change in Gassera district, southeastern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {4399}, pmid = {39910327}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Ethiopia ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers/psychology ; Humans ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Male ; *Droughts ; Rain ; Agriculture ; Adult ; Perception ; Rural Population ; Temperature ; Middle Aged ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change and variability have threatened rain-fed subsistence agriculture by affecting the livelihoods of rural communities in Ethiopia. The Gassera district is among the high-potential crop production areas and is severely affected by recurrent drought resulting from climate change. This study examined trends in climatic variability, farmers' perceptions, and the determinants of climate change in the Gassera district, southeastern Ethiopia. A cross-sectional survey design was employed to select agroecologies and collect data from 444 farm households via multistage random sampling. Linear regression, the chi-square test, and rainfall anomalies were used for the data analysis. The results revealed significant (Ρ = 0.00) increasing trends in annual temperature, a decrease in annual rainfall of 2.92 mm/year, and severe rainfall variability for the Belg season. Most of the interviewed farmers reported increases in temperature, erratic rainfall, and drought frequency of 96.24%, 86.47%, and 89.73%, respectively. The study concludes that climate change variability is described by long-term average increases in temperature, erratic rainfall, and the occurrence of drought. This research also concluded that farmers' perceptions matched well with records of increases in temperature, erratic rainfall, and drought frequency. The results also revealed gender, education, and agroecological settings were the determinant factors related to farmers' perceptions of climate variability.}, }
@article {pmid39909982, year = {2025}, author = {da Costa, MV and Debone, D and Miraglia, SGEK}, title = {Brazilian beef production and GHG emission - social cost of carbon and perspectives for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39909982}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The livestock sector holds a prominent position among Brazilian economic sectors; however, beef production is linked to noteworthy environmental impacts, including deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. In alignment with the Paris Agreement, Brazil aims to reduce GHG emissions by 43% by 2030 as part of its NDC commitment. This study aims to elucidate the nexus between beef production and emissions from beef cattle, providing an assessment of predictive GHG emission scenarios for 2030, and an economic valuation of these emissions utilizing the social cost of carbon (SCC). Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, GHG emissions from beef production are estimated to range between 0.42-0.63 GtCO2e in 2030. Conversely, meeting the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) target requires limiting emissions to 0.26 GtCO2e. The SCC analysis unveils a potential cost reductions ranging from US $18.8 to $42.6 billion in 2030, contingent upon achieving the NDC. Furthermore, a strategic assessment considering climate targets and prioritizing beef exports envisions a domestic market availability of 2-10 kg of beef per capita in 2030. This study highlight the critical need for transformative adjustments in livestock production methods to reduce GHG emissions per unit of beef yield, with a focus on the economic advantages of emission mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid39908996, year = {2025}, author = {Wall, E and Eapen, V}, title = {Nurturing tomorrow: Mental health effect on children and youth due to climate change.}, journal = {Australian journal of general practice}, volume = {54}, number = {1-2}, pages = {51-55}, doi = {10.31128/AJGP-06-24-7305}, pmid = {39908996}, issn = {2208-7958}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Child ; Adolescent ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Few global challenges loom over public health as ominously as climate change, and this is especially pertinent for children and youth due to a combination of direct and indirect effects on their mental health and wellbeing.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This paper describes the challenges faced by children and young people in the face of the unprecedented impact of climate related events or anxiety about planetary health and its impact on their health and wellbeing. Potential steps for realistic actions are also provided.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Health professionals need to be aware and vigilant about children and young people presenting with climate-related physical and mental health issues. It is essential that they are offered appropriate access to evidence-based resources to engage and empower them with relevant information alongside targeted interventions and supports matching their specific clinical presentations and needs.}, }
@article {pmid39908694, year = {2025}, author = {Pan, N and Tian, H and Shi, H and Pan, S and Canadell, JG and Chang, J and Ciais, P and Davidson, EA and Hugelius, G and Ito, A and Jackson, RB and Joos, F and Lienert, S and Millet, DB and Olin, S and Patra, PK and Thompson, RL and Vuichard, N and Wells, KC and Wilson, C and You, Y and Zaehle, S}, title = {Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere models.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {196}, number = {}, pages = {109297}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2025.109297}, pmid = {39908694}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important stratospheric ozone-depleting agent based on current emissions and the third largest contributor to increased net radiative forcing. Increases in atmospheric N2O have been attributed primarily to enhanced soil N2O emissions. Critically, contributions from soils in the Northern High Latitudes (NHL, >50°N) remain poorly quantified despite their exposure to rapid rates of regional warming and changing hydrology due to climate change. In this study, we used an ensemble of six process-based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Global Nitrogen/Nitrous Oxide Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) to quantify soil N2 O emissions across the NHL during 1861-2016. Factorial simulations were conducted to disentangle the contributions of key driving factors, including climate change, nitrogen inputs, land use change, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration , to the trends in emissions. The NMIP models suggests NHL soil N2O emissions doubled from 1861 to 2016, increasing on average by 2.0 ± 1.0 Gg N/yr (p < 0.01). Over the entire study period, while N fertilizer application (42 ± 20 %) contributed the largest share to the increase in NHL soil emissions, climate change effect was comparable (37 ± 25 %), underscoring its significant role. In the recent decade (2007-2016), anthropogenic sources contributed 47 ± 17 % (279 ± 156 Gg N/yr) of the total N2O emissions from the NHL, while unmanaged soils contributed a comparable amount (290 ± 142 Gg N/yr). The trend of increasing emissions from nitrogen fertilizer reversed after the 1980 s because of reduced applications in non-permafrost regions. In addition, increased plant growth due to CO2 fertilization suppressed simulated emissions. However, permafrost soil N2O emissions continued increasing attributable to climate warming; the interaction of climate warming and increasing CO2 concentrations on nitrogen and carbon cycling will determine future trends in NHL soil N2O emissions. The rigorous interplay between process modeling and field experimentation will be essential for improving model representations of the mechanisms controlling N2O fluxes in the Northern High Latitudes and for reducing associated uncertainties.}, }
@article {pmid39908312, year = {2025}, author = {Schuitema, G and Lacchia, A}, title = {From anxiety to coping: Understanding psychological distance and coping skills for climate change and COVID-19 in 10-12-year-old children.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {e0317725}, pmid = {39908312}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *COVID-19/psychology/epidemiology ; *Adaptation, Psychological ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; *Anxiety/psychology/epidemiology ; Psychological Distance ; Longitudinal Studies ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Ireland/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Emotions ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Coping Skills ; }, abstract = {Children worldwide experience climate anxiety, defined as a chronic fear of environmental catastrophe. Following other scholars who sought comparison between the perceived risks and our collective responses with the COVID-19 pandemic, as they can both be considered global crises. Children's emotional responses, psychological distance and coping strategies to climate change compared and COVID-19 are compared, using a mixed-method longitudinal study among 231 primary school children across the Republic of Ireland. Pre-pandemic and post-lock down data were collected measuring children's emotions through surveys using Likert scales and sketches. Sketching, increasingly recognised as a method for assessing emotional expression, is especially useful when language skills are limited. Results suggest that because climate change was more psychologically distant than COVID-19, it was more difficult for children to effectively use emotional-, meaning-, problem-, and relationship-focused coping strategies to deal with their climate anxiety. One important conclusion of this study is that messages and strategies used to motivate adults to take climate action may increase climate anxiety among young children. Also, relationship-focused coping strategies are underutilised to help children deal with climate anxiety, whilst these were promising coping mechanisms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, creating positive social support and collective action may help young children to cope with climate anxiety.}, }
@article {pmid39907444, year = {2025}, author = {Kontoyiannis, DP and Casadevall, A}, title = {Would global warming bring an increase of invertebrate-associated cutaneous invasive fungal infections?.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e0344724}, doi = {10.1128/mbio.03447-24}, pmid = {39907444}, issn = {2150-7511}, abstract = {Invasive mold-associated cutaneous disease is a rare but potentially catastrophic consequence of trauma. However, invertebrate bites are not well recognized as a mechanism for the inoculation of fungi into subcutaneous tissue that can also result in severe infections. Invertebrates often carry fungi with human pathogenic potential as part of their microbiome, and bites break the skin, providing a conduit for them to penetrate subcutaneous tissues where the establishment of infection can produce serious skin and soft tissue fungal diseases. In this essay, we review the existing data for invertebrate bite-associated cutaneous invasive fungal infections (IBA-cIFIs) and consider the potential consequences of global warming on their epidemiology. Climate changes will be associated with changes in the range of invertebrates and adaptation of their associated microbes to warmer temperatures. Fungal adaptation to higher temperatures can defeat the mammalian protective barrier and be associated with both more and different IBA-cIFIs.}, }
@article {pmid39906868, year = {2025}, author = {Talha, M and Nejadhashemi, AP and Moller, K}, title = {Soft computing paradigm for climate change adaptation and mitigation in Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey: A systematic review.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {e41974}, pmid = {39906868}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This systematic review examines the application of artificial intelligence (AI), including machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL), for climate change adaptation and mitigation in Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey. These three nations-key Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) members and a nexus between Europe and South Asia-are experiencing diverse environmental challenges due to varying climatic conditions. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we conducted a comprehensive search in the Scopus database, ultimately identifying 76 relevant articles out of an initial 492. Although some articles utilized multiple techniques, classical ML methods appeared in approximately 37.3 % of the studies, neural network paradigms in about 57.5 %, and optimization or meta-heuristic algorithms in around 5.0 %. Regarding thematic focus, about 33.3 % of the articles addressed water resource management, 22.2 % focused on climate prediction, 11.1 % on land and agriculture, 9 % on ecosystem modeling, and 24.2 % on natural disaster preparedness and response. The analysis reveals a growing but uneven body of research utilizing AI across the ECO countries. By highlighting successful applications, identifying key gaps-such as limited cross-border collaboration and inconsistent data availability-and proposing a framework for more integrated research, this review aims to guide future initiatives that leverage AI's potential to improve climate resilience and sustainability in the region.}, }
@article {pmid39906678, year = {2024}, author = {Barkin, JL and van Rhijn, S and Johnson, CM}, title = {The connection between climate change and perinatal mental health.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychiatry}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1515895}, pmid = {39906678}, issn = {1664-0640}, abstract = {Climate change and extreme weather events are particularly concerning for pregnant and postpartum women and have been related to negative birth outcomes. However, the impact of climate change on perinatal mental health outcomes is not well studied. Mood and anxiety disorders are among the leading comorbidities during pregnancy and the postpartum period, and they are associated with significant familial and societal burdens. It is crucial to include environmental factors in the risk profile of perinatal mental illness to optimize prevention and early intervention strategies. In the clinical experience of one of the authors, new mothers can feel particularly concerned about their baby's physical health when faced with extreme heat or may present as agitated due to heat-related sleep deprivation. This is in line with qualitative research showing maternal worrying about a baby's thermal dysregulation as one of the emerging themes. With extreme weather events becoming more frequent, clinicians have a role in advocating for climate adaptation in healthcare settings. Climate inequalities need to be addressed alongside health and social inequalities.}, }
@article {pmid39905931, year = {2025}, author = {Saberi, P and Green-McKenzie, J}, title = {Interactive Workshop on Identifying Health Effects of Climate Change in the Clinical Setting: An Occupational and Environmental Health Solution.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000003331}, pmid = {39905931}, issn = {1536-5948}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To provide clinicians an occupational framework to assess climate-related health conditions, determine at-risk workers, and devise solutions.<br><br>METHODS: An interactive workshop was presented at the 2022 American Occupational Health Conference (AOHC). Six climactic events related to occupational health were chosen with corresponding cases from National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. Participants answered and discussed scripted questions. A 5-point Likert&#xae; Scale utilized by AOHC evaluated the workshop's quality and utility, and the audience's ability to apply the knowledge.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixty-one (N = 66) participants ranked the workshop highly (4.4-4.6/5). Most participants (90%) reported incorporation of practical knowledge gained, increased advocacy capacity and ability to teach about the issue.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Successful integration of engaging interactive sessions in clinician education on climate change and health is critical as climactic conditions can increase patient vulnerability in their role as workers.}, }
@article {pmid39905348, year = {2025}, author = {Park, J and Oh, J and Lee, W and Kim, Y and Park, JH and Kim, H and Hwang, S}, title = {Association of ambient temperatures with suicide attempts and violence with the future projections under climate change scenarios: a nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study in South Korea.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {457}, pmid = {39905348}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {IITP-2025-RS-2023-00254177//Ministry of Science and ICT, South Korea/ ; IITP-2025-RS-2023-00254177//Ministry of Science and ICT, South Korea/ ; 11-1790387-000878-01//Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Male ; *Suicide, Attempted/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Adult ; Female ; *Violence/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Cross-Over Studies ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; *Temperature ; Forecasting ; Adolescent ; Aged ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Both climate change and intentional injuries (suicide attempts and violence) are recognized as crucial factors that affect human health. Previous studies revealed the association between ambient temperatures and deaths due to intentional injuries but mostly about the consequences of severe events. Our study aimed to examine suicide attempts and violence incidence including mild and moderate cases with future projections, using each injury's burden about climate change scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: We collected nationally representative cases of suicide attempts (8,512 cases) and violence (9,742 cases) from the Korea National Hospital Discharge In-depth Injury Survey from 2005 to 2019. We performed a two-stage analysis with a time-stratified case-crossover design to evaluate the associations of outdoor temperatures with suicide attempts and violence using historical data (2005-2019). Based on the estimated associations in the historical period, we projected the excess suicide attempts and violence attributable to ambient temperatures in the future (2020-2099) using the three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: We found positive associations between outdoor temperatures with suicide attempts and violence individually, and the association with violence was more linear. The excess suicide attempts attributable to temperatures in the historical period were around 11%, and it was expected to increase in all SSP scenarios (up to 14.35%). For violence, the excess risk of violence attributable to temperatures in the historical period was around 3.5%, and it was also estimated to increase in the future (up to 7.92%).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The nationwide study about South Korea shows that there are associations between an increase in outdoor temperatures and increased risks of suicide attempts and violence, and each excess injury related to temperature is projected to grow under the SSP scenarios. Our findings might provide informative evidence for relevant action plans against climate change and intentional injuries.}, }
@article {pmid39905190, year = {2025}, author = {Chan, F and Sokolova, I and Vopel, K}, title = {Ocean hypoxia: The science of climate change in the sea.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {4260}, pmid = {39905190}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The oxygen inventory of the global ocean is declining. This phenomenon, known as ocean deoxygenation, has emerged as a fundamental pathway for climate change to alter marine ecosystems. An important concern is how this global oxygen decline will manifest in coastal and oceanic systems that are already subject to low oxygen, or hypoxic conditions. There is also a clear need to understand how the intensification and/or expansion of hypoxia will affect ocean food webs and biogeochemical cycles. Building a predictive understanding of ocean hypoxia is a multi-scaled and multi-disciplinary research endeavor. Recent advances in ocean observation, experimental biology, and ecosystem modeling are being applied to ocean hypoxia research to reshape our understanding of the future ocean.}, }
@article {pmid39903707, year = {2025}, author = {Zhou, B and Chen, G and Zhao, J and Yin, Y}, title = {Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {e0316605}, pmid = {39903707}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Sustainable Development ; China ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Humans ; Computer Simulation ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {This study explores the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of ecosystem services (ESs) in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan under the backdrop of climate change. The study innovatively calculates the sustainable development goals (SDG) index based on ecosystem services (ESs). It employs the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate future land use changes (LUCs) and uses the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to assess ESs under different scenarios. This research systematically evaluates the ESs and SDGs in karst regions within the context of climate change. The results indicate that: (1) Under all three scenarios in 2035, the trend of LUCs in the karst area of southeastern Yunnan is highly consistent, though the intensity and spatial configuration vary significantly. The least reduction in arable land area occurs under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 126 scenario, while water bodies and construction land show varying degrees of increase; (2) Regarding ESs, both water yield and soil retention exhibit an increasing trend across all scenarios by 2035, with the most notable rise under SSP126. Conversely, habitat quality and carbon storage show a decline, with the smallest decrease also under SSP126; (3) Analyzing the SDG index, the overall value is low in 2020. In future scenarios, the SDG index increases in the southern part while decreasing in the eastern part, indicating significant differences in regional sustainable development potential. Hotspots under SSP126 and SSP245 are concentrated in the densely vegetated southwest and eastern edge areas, while cold spots are mainly found in the heavily human-impacted central Yunnan urban agglomeration and Wenshan City. This study systematically explores for the first time the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESs in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan under different climate scenarios. It provides scientific evidence for regional ecological protection and land use planning.}, }
@article {pmid39903437, year = {2025}, author = {Gutierrez, MF and Andrade, VS and Ale, A and Monserrat, JM and Roa-Fuentes, CA and Herrera-Martínez, Y and Bacchetta, C and Cazenave, J and Rossi, AS and Nandini, S and Sarma, SSS and Piscart, C and Wiegand, C}, title = {Responses of freshwater organisms to multiple stressors in a climate change scenario: a review on small-scale experiments.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39903437}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {22-CLIMAT-04//Climat AmSud/ ; }, abstract = {This review summarizes how salinity and temperature, two key global factors driven by climate change in freshwater systems, interact with other stressors on organisms in controlled small-scale factorial experiments at the population, individual, or subindividual level (excluding mesocosm and field studies). Despite the growing interest, research following all these criteria remains limited with 156 publications of which 50% analyzed stressors + salinity, 46% stressors + temperature, and only 4% involved the triple combination. Research on the combined effect of temperature and salinity predominantly focused on metals, pesticides, and, to a lesser extent, emergent contaminants, such as microplastics and nanomaterials, encompassing various biological models and responses. In general, increased temperature amplifies the single effect of stressors, whereas salinity leads to a higher diversity of responses, with similar proportions of synergisms and antagonisms. Fish (Salmoniformes, Perciformes, and Cypriniformes) were the most studied organisms. Among Crustacea, only cladocerans of the genera Daphnia and Ceriodpahnia were considered. The present review highlights the need to include other species that play key roles in freshwater food webs and to increase triple combination studies to understand complex interactions and develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to preserve the environment and its services in this changing world.}, }
@article {pmid39903212, year = {2025}, author = {Skypala, IJ}, title = {The impact of climate change in pollen food allergy syndrome.}, journal = {Current opinion in allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/ACI.0000000000001064}, pmid = {39903212}, issn = {1473-6322}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To evaluate the effect of climate change on pollen allergenicity, lengthening of the pollen season, and the spread of invasive species such as ragweed. To assess evidence to determine whether these effects are impacting the prevalence of pollen food syndrome (PFS).<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: There is good evidence to demonstrate that markers of climate change, including rising temperatures and to some extent greenhouse gases, are responsible for a rise in the allergenicity of pollen and an increase in the duration of the pollen season, especially for trees. These changes are likely to be linked to the increase in the prevalence of seasonal allergic rhinitis (SAR), especially in children. Sensitization to pollen, especially tree pollen, is also a risk factor for the development of PFS. Thought to mainly affect adults, recent evidence suggests that there is a rise in the prevalence of PFS in children, linked to an increase in SAR.<br><br>SUMMARY: Increasing SAR due to climate change could lead to a greater number of children and adults developing PFS. Although PFS is generally considered to be a mild condition, severe reactions can occur and there might be numerous plant food triggers, which can adversely affect dietary choice and nutritional intake.}, }
@article {pmid39902198, year = {2024}, author = {Li, S and Li, Y and Hu, M and Li, Y and Yang, M and Wang, S and Yu, W and Cheng, C and Cheng, Q}, title = {Ecological risk assessment of future suitable areas for Piper kadsura under the background of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1471706}, pmid = {39902198}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Piper kadsura is a well-known medicinal plant that belongs to woody liana, possessing high therapeutic and economic value. The market demand of P. kadsura is huge, but its wild resources are scarce and artificial cultivation methods have not been established, which leads to a situation with strong contradiction and imbalance between supply and demand.<br><br>METHODS: In this study, 303 sample of distribution data for P. kadsura in China were collected, 33 environmental variables related to terrain, climate and soil were analyzed and the suitable habitats of P. kadsura during various periods were predicted by MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, aiming to provide a basis for scientific cultivation and effective utilization of resources.<br><br>RESULTS: The results indicated that precipitation and temperature were significant factors in the distribution of P. kadsura. The primary environmental variables influencing the potential distribution of P. kadsura were precipitation during the driest quarter (Bio17), annual precipitation (Bio12), mean diurnal range (Bio2), and annual temperature range (Bio7). Among them, precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) was the most influential environmental variable for the distribution of P. kadsura with the range between 100.68 and 274.48 mm. The current distribution of P. kadsura is mainly located in the coastal areas of eastern and southern China, especially Guangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian, with a total area of 51.74 &#xd7; 104 km2. Future climate change of global warming will lead to a reduction in the total suitable areas and high suitable areas under various climate scenarios. Especially in the SSP585 scenario, the total suitable area and the highly suitable area will be significantly reduced by 89.26% and 87.95% compared with the present during the 2090s.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Overall, these findings can provide useful references for the suitable areas' determination of wild resources, optimization of artificial cultivation and scientific selection of high quality medicinal materials on P. kadsura.}, }
@article {pmid39900994, year = {2025}, author = {Jovanović, I and Frantová, N and Alba-Mejía, JE and Porčová, L and Psota, V and Asszonyi, J and Cerkal, R and Středa, T}, title = {Publisher Correction: Role of total polyphenol content in seed germination characteristics of spring barley varieties amidst climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {4075}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-025-86339-7}, pmid = {39900994}, issn = {2045-2322}, }
@article {pmid39899508, year = {2025}, author = {Li, C}, title = {The evolution of food security in Japan-Based on an indicator evaluation system including climate change indicators.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {e0317180}, pmid = {39899508}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Japan ; *Climate Change ; *Food Security ; Humans ; *Fertilizers ; Food Supply ; }, abstract = {As climate change intensifies, food security has received widespread attention. This study examines the development of Japan's food security index and its relationship with climate change. From these findings, a food security indicator system for Japan was established. The food security system has six dimensions: availability, nutrition, climate change, society, economics, and fertilizer. The factors affecting food security are complex and variable, and this paper adds the Fertilizer Security Index (FSI) to the previous studies. The overuse of fertilizers directly contributes to soil and atmospheric pollution, which can indirectly lead to issues of food quality insecurity. Including this factor within the food security system is fully justified. This enhances the precision of the food security index system to some degree. The results showed that Japan's overall food security index exhibited a slight downward trend from 0.113 in 1980 to 0.099 in 2022. Food security reached its lowest point of about 0.067 in 1993. In addition, all five indicators, except the fertilizer index, put pressure on the food security index. Due to the uncertainty inherent in climate change, specifically its ambiguous positive and negative impacts on food security, the Climate Change Security Index provides detailed evidence in this paper supporting whether climate change contributes to or undermines food security. Finally, the study put forward recommendations to ensure food security.}, }
@article {pmid39899284, year = {2025}, author = {Katz, GM and Arigoni, D and Rice, MB and Stall, NM}, title = {Addressing the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Older Adults.}, journal = {JAMA internal medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jamainternmed.2024.7727}, pmid = {39899284}, issn = {2168-6114}, }
@article {pmid39893871, year = {2025}, author = {Mamtimin, A and Amar, G and Wang, Y and Peng, J and Sayit, H and Gao, J and Zhang, K and Song, M and Aihaiti, A and Wen, C and Yang, F and Huo, W and Zhou, C}, title = {Assessment of CO2 fluxes in the hinterland of the Gurbantunggut Desert and its response to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {375}, number = {}, pages = {124351}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124351}, pmid = {39893871}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Desert ecosystems, as an important part of terrestrial ecosystems, are considered potential hidden carbon sinks in the global carbon cycle. The Gurbantunggut Desert, as China's largest fixed/semi-fixed desert, has received little research on its role in the global carbon cycle and future trends. This study utilizes continuous observational data from the Gurbantunggut Desert from 2018 to 2022 and integrates CMIP6 global climate model scenario data to study the evolution of carbon balance in the desert ecosystem, carbon source/sink functions, and future trends. The result showed that: 1) The CO2 flux in the Gurbantunggut Desert shows Carbon sink during the day and carbon source at night, with an annual cumulative carbon sink duration of over 240 days.2)From 2018 to 2020, the desert ecosystem of the Gurbantunggut Desert functioned as a net CO2 sink.3) Desert ecosystems were subjected to concurrent influences from multiple environmental factors across varying time scales, with photosynthetically active radiation, air temperature, and soil temperature identified as the most influential factors affecting CO2 flux in the Gurbantunggut Desert. 4) The climate of the Gurbantunggut Desert is projected to exhibit a trend of warming and increased humidity in the future. Against the backdrop of future warming and humidification, the Gurbantunggut desert ecosystem is anticipated to exhibit a pronounced carbon sink characteristic.}, }
@article {pmid39893811, year = {2025}, author = {Sun, W and Zhang, E and Liu, Y and Shen, J}, title = {The black carbon record of mid- to late-holocene environmental changes and its links to climate change and anthropogenic activity on the northwest Qinghai-Tibetan plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {965}, number = {}, pages = {178659}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178659}, pmid = {39893811}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Reconstructing long-term black carbon (BC) variations is crucial to improve our understanding of climatic and anthropogenic impacts on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), due to its particular geographical location and its vulnerable ecosystem. Based on a fine resolution BC record from Sumxi Co combined with various other paleoenvironmental proxies, this study reconstructs regional environmental change and reveals its link to climate change and anthropogenic activities on the QTP and its surrounding areas over the past five millennia. The results show that the BC fluxes were about 875.1 mgm[-2] yr[-1] during 4.9-4.2 cal ka BP, remained at a relatively low level from 4.1 to 0.1 cal ka BP, and then increased rapidly to the present 3408.6 mgm[-2] yr[-1]. The decrease in pre-industrial fire activities was caused by reduced biofuel availability during cold and dry periods, which is consistent with many other high altitude fire records from the Arid Central Asia. However, this pattern is different from that of the monsoon-influenced QTP, where more fires occurred during the late Holocene as a result of climatic aridification and early anthropogenic activities. With rapid population growth and socioeconomic development, there has been an overall increase in BC flux across the QTP and its surrounding areas, suggesting that enhanced anthropogenic activities have gradually superseded natural processes and profoundly impacted the regional environment since the beginning of Industrial Revolution. These findings are significant in terms of understanding the climatic and anthropogenic impacts on regional environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid39893286, year = {2025}, author = {Millien, V and Stafiej, N and Félix, F and Guzman, HM}, title = {Migratory behaviour of humpback whales in the southeastern Pacific under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {3989}, pmid = {39893286}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Animal Migration/physiology ; *Humpback Whale/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Pacific Ocean ; Seasons ; Costa Rica ; Panama ; Antarctic Regions ; Ecuador ; Feeding Behavior/physiology ; }, abstract = {Humpback whales, a species of baleen whale occurring in all oceans globally, undergo seasonal migration between their breeding grounds in tropical warm waters and high latitude feeding grounds. Using multiple years of satellite tracking data, we modeled the effect of oceanic conditions on the movement behaviour of 42 humpback whales belonging to the Southeastern Pacific population (also known as Breeding Stock G) during their migration from breeding grounds in Costa Rica, Panama and Ecuador to feeding grounds in waters around the Antarctic Peninsula. We report evidence that during their migration, humpback whales engage in a movement behaviour frequently associated with feeding, and that this behaviour was more likely to occur in relatively more productive waters. We show that whales partly rely on cues they perceive in their immediate environment to initiate their southward migration, but also on their memory of oceanic conditions on their feeding grounds, timing their arrival with the complete melting of sea ice which triggers a bloom of krill in the Antarctic Ocean. Overall, our findings suggest that humpback whales integrate information they gather from their immediate environment to predict the oceanic conditions at distant locations and adjust the timing of their migration, maximizing their interaction with their preys. However, it is unclear if humpback whales will fully succeed in tracking their preys in a rapidly changing climate and ensure the long-term persistence of the species.}, }
@article {pmid39893166, year = {2025}, author = {Bourquin, M and Peter, H and Michoud, G and Busi, SB and Kohler, TJ and Robison, AL and Styllas, M and Ezzat, L and Geers, AU and Huss, M and Fodelianakis, S and ,  and Battin, TJ}, title = {Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {1264}, pmid = {39893166}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Microbiota/genetics ; *Ice Cover/microbiology ; *Climate Change ; *Phylogeny ; *Bacteria/genetics/classification ; *Rivers/microbiology ; Metagenome ; Biodiversity ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {The shrinkage of glaciers and the vanishing of glacier-fed streams (GFSs) are emblematic of climate change. However, forecasts of how GFS microbiome structure and function will change under projected climate change scenarios are lacking. Combining 2,333 prokaryotic metagenome-assembled genomes with climatic, glaciological, and environmental data collected by the Vanishing Glaciers project from 164 GFSs draining Earth's major mountain ranges, we here predict the future of the GFS microbiome until the end of the century under various climate change scenarios. Our model framework is rooted in a space-for-time substitution design and leverages statistical learning approaches. We predict that declining environmental selection promotes primary production in GFSs, stimulating both bacterial biomass and biodiversity. Concomitantly, predictions suggest that the phylogenetic structure of the GFS microbiome will change and entire bacterial clades are at risk. Furthermore, genomic projections reveal that microbiome functions will shift, with intensified solar energy acquisition pathways, heterotrophy and algal-bacterial interactions. Altogether, we project a 'greener' future of the world's GFSs accompanied by a loss of clades that have adapted to environmental harshness, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.}, }
@article {pmid39892776, year = {2025}, author = {Xu, Q and Jin, M and Xiao, H and Peng, Y and Zhang, F and Li, H and Wu, K and Xiao, Y}, title = {Genomic predictions of invasiveness and adaptability of the cotton bollworm in response to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of genetics and genomics = Yi chuan xue bao}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jgg.2025.01.016}, pmid = {39892776}, issn = {1673-8527}, abstract = {Agricultural pests cause enormous losses in annual agricultural production. Understanding the evolutionary responses and adaptive capacity of agricultural pests under climate change is crucial for establishing sustainable and environmentally friendly agricultural pest management. In this study, we integrate climate modeling and landscape genomics to investigate the distributional dynamics of the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) in the adaptation to local environments and resilience to future climate change. Notably, the predicted inhabitable areas with higher suitability for the cotton bollworm could be eight times larger in the coming decades. Climate change is one of the factors driving the dynamics of distribution and population differentiation of the cotton bollworm. Approximately 19,000 years ago, the cotton bollworm expanded from its ancestral African population, followed by gradual occupations of the European, Asian, Oceanian, and American continents. Furthermore, we identify seven subpopulations with high dispersal and adaptability which may have an increased risk of invasion potential. Additionally, a large number of candidate genes and SNPs linked to climatic adaptation were mapped. These findings could inform sustainable pest management strategies in the face of climate change, aiding future pest forecasting and management planning.}, }
@article {pmid39890861, year = {2025}, author = {Sampayo-Maldonado, S and Cabrera-Santos, D and Dávila-Aranda, P and Rodríguez-Arévalo, NI and Orozco-Segovia, A and Gianella, M and Bell, E and Way, M and Manson, RH and Quintas, GS and Flores-Ortíz, CM and Ulian, T}, title = {Using the optimal seed germination temperature approach to determine the potential distribution of Inga jinicuil in Mexico under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {3951}, pmid = {39890861}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {IG200323//PAPIIT, UNAM/ ; IG200323//PAPIIT, UNAM/ ; IG200323//PAPIIT, UNAM/ ; IG200323//PAPIIT, UNAM/ ; NA//UK PACT MEXICO/ ; NA//UK PACT MEXICO/ ; NA//UK PACT MEXICO/ ; NA//UK PACT MEXICO/ ; NA//UK PACT MEXICO/ ; NA//UK PACT MEXICO/ ; NA//UK PACT MEXICO/ ; NA//UK PACT MEXICO/ ; NA//UK PACT MEXICO/ ; }, mesh = {*Germination ; *Climate Change ; Mexico ; *Temperature ; *Seeds/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Inga jinicuil is used extensively in shade coffee farms in Mexico, a diversified agroforestry system providing important environmental goods and services. However, its recalcitrant seeds represent an important barrier to its propagation. Given the climate change scenarios, it will be necessary to generate information on the effect of temperature on germination, a key stage for the establishment and conservation of the species. The objective of the study was to determine the optimal germination temperatures for I. jinicuil using linear and non-linear models, as well as the species' potential distribution under contrasting climate change scenarios using the GISS-E2-1-G model. Seeds were placed in germination chambers at constant temperatures of 5 ± 0.5 to 40 ± 0.5 °C, and their thermal responses were then modelled using a thermal timing approach. Results indicated a good fit of models of I. jinicuil germination in response to temperature. Seeds germinated across a wide temperature range; the base temperature for germination was in the range of 4.8 to 9.45 °C (average Tb: 6.21 ± 2.23 °C). and the ceiling temperature in the range of 44.51 to 49.20 °C (average Tc: 47.6 ± 2.73 °C). While the optimal temperature was found in the range of 29.58 to 33.02 °C (average To: 31.52 ± 1.43 °C). The suboptimal thermal time ([Formula: see text]1(50)) for germination of 50% of the seed lot was 117.164 ± 0.636°Cd, which under current climatic conditions is reached in 6.6 days. According to climate modeling, the distribution of I. jinicuil populations will decrease by up to 23% in the future relative to the current distribution. Results indicate that high temperatures have a negative effect on germination, which may be related to seed physiology. More research on seed germination and growth is needed to improve the management and conservation of this species and its continued use as a shade tree in coffee agroforestry systems.}, }
@article {pmid39890831, year = {2025}, author = {Li, B and Fu, E and Yang, S and Lin, J and Zhang, W and Zhang, J and Lu, Y and Wang, J and Jiang, H}, title = {Measuring China's Policy Stringency on Climate Change for 1954-2022.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {188}, pmid = {39890831}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {2022YFF0802504//Ministry of Science and Technology of the People&apos;s Republic of China (Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology)/ ; 2021YFC1809000//Ministry of Science and Technology of the People&apos;s Republic of China (Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology)/ ; }, abstract = {Efforts on climate change have demonstrated tangible impacts through various actions and policies. However, a significant knowledge gap remains: comparing the stringency of climate change policies over time or across jurisdictions is challenging due to ambiguous definitions, the lack of a unified assessment framework, complex causal effects, and the difficulty in achieving effective measurement. Furthermore, China's climate governance is expected to address multiple objectives by integrating main effects and side effects, to achieve synergies that encompass environmental, economic, and social impacts. This paper employs an integrated framework comprising lexicon, text analysis, machine learning, and large-language model applied to multi-source data to quantify China's policy stringency on climate change (PSCC) from 1954 to 2022. To achieve effective, robust, and explainable measurement, Chain-of-Thought and SHAP analysis are integrated into the framework. By framing the PSCC on varied sub-dimensions covering mitigation, adaptation, implementation, and spatial difference, this dataset maps the government's varied stringency on climate change and can be used as a robust variable to support a series of downstream causal analysis.}, }
@article {pmid39890716, year = {2025}, author = {Kåresdotter, E and Destouni, G and Lammers, RB and Keskinen, M and Pan, H and Kalantari, Z}, title = {Water conflicts under climate change: Research gaps and priorities.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39890716}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {2017-00//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; 608//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is known to worsen conflicts, but its combination with other factors affecting water-related conflicts remains less explored. Using a scoping review, this study examined research in the climate-water-conflict nexus. Using semi-automatic text mining approaches, key research gaps and differences in conflict factors and themes across different regions and conflict types were analyzed. Studies focused on Asia and Africa, with few exploring other regions. Governance and livelihoods emerged as significant factors in water-related conflict responses worldwide, with differences across regions. For instance, farmer-herder conflicts were common in Africa, while agriculture was more related to governance and water management in Asia. Research priorities forward should diversify the range of water-related conflict subjects and regions and give special focus to regions vulnerable to hydroclimatic change. More focus on cooperation and non-violent conflicts is also vital for understanding and being able to project and mitigate future water-related conflict responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39890658, year = {2025}, author = {Lin, S and Zhang, H and Lam, JFI}, title = {Urban soil ecological risk assessment based on "climate change- resilience".}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {2}, pages = {218}, pmid = {39890658}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {S2023016//2023 Wenzhou Municipal Bureau of Science and Technology Fundamental Scientific Research Project/ ; jczc0257//2023 Wenzhou Science and Technology Association Service Science and Technology Innovation Research Project/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Risk Assessment ; *Soil/chemistry ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Cities ; *Urbanization ; Ecosystem ; China ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Under the dual pressures of global climate change and rapid urbanization, urban soil ecosystems face increasingly complex risks and challenges. Existing urban soil ecological risk assessment methods are primarily limited to single-dimensional analysis or linear assessment models, making it difficult to reveal the complex interaction mechanisms among soil, climate, and human activities. This study pioneers the integration of social-ecological system theory with multi-criteria decision-making methods to innovatively construct a dynamic coupling assessment framework. This framework employs the AHP-DEMATEL method to identify causal relationships and feedback mechanisms between indicators, while utilizing the VIKOR method for comprehensive quantitative risk assessment. Through an empirical analysis of 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province, this study reveals that: (1) climate change-related indicators demonstrate dominant weights, with the impact of extreme weather (C3) reaching a comprehensive weight of 0.1082, significantly higher than other indicators; (2) soil biodiversity (C8) exhibits the highest centrality (10.112), forming a key feedback node in the assessment system, highlighting the crucial role of biological factors in maintaining soil system stability; (3) green infrastructure coverage (C16) shows the highest cause degree (2.261), generating complex cascade effects through its influence on soil temperature, moisture, and biodiversity; (4) urban risk levels display significant spatial heterogeneity, with Lishui performing optimally (group benefit value S = 0.069) and Zhoushan performing poorest (S = 1.000), quantifying the impact of economic development patterns and geographical location on soil ecological risk. The dynamic coupling assessment framework and quantitative indicator system established in this study provide a new paradigm for understanding the complexity of urban soil ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid39890211, year = {2025}, author = {The Lancet Global Health, }, title = {Climate change and NTDs: a perfect storm.}, journal = {The Lancet. Global health}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {e172}, doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(25)00014-2}, pmid = {39890211}, issn = {2214-109X}, }
@article {pmid39889577, year = {2025}, author = {Dal Barco, MK and Maraschini, M and Nguyen, ND and Ferrario, DM and Rufo, O and Fonseca, HL and Vascon, S and Torresan, S and Critto, A}, title = {Integrating AI and climate change scenarios for multi-risk assessment in the coastal municipalities of the Veneto region.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {965}, number = {}, pages = {178586}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178586}, pmid = {39889577}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global climate is experiencing exceptional warming, leading to a rise in extreme events worldwide. Coastal regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change (CC), due to dense populations, interconnected economies, and fragile ecosystems. These areas face escalating risks as CC intensifies the severity and frequency of extreme weather phenomena, like heavy precipitation, sea-level rise (SLR), storm surges. Integrated approaches are crucial to assess the combined impacts of atmospheric and marine hazards at the land-sea interface. Machine Learning (ML) offer innovative solutions to analyse multi-risk events, leveraging large and heterogeneous datasets and modelling complex, non-linear interactions. This study introduces a two-tier ML approach to estimate risks associated with extreme weather events for the Veneto coastal municipalities under current and future scenarios. The model, tested and validated with present-day data, showed satisfactory performance (error margin ∼20 %). The model was applied to mid-term (until 2045) and long-term (until 2100) periods under different CC scenarios, represented by various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Mid-term analysis reveals an increasing risk trend, driven by SLR under RCP8.5, underscoring the significance of considering non-linear interactions between multiple marine and atmospheric hazards. Long-term analysis highlights how future risks depend mainly on precipitation and SLR across the analysed CC scenarios (RCP2.6/4.5/8.5). Results indicate a gradual increase in the expected annual risk trend, with RCP8.5 scenario showing the most severe outcomes. By 2100, the risks under RCP8.5 are projected to be ten times higher than those observed during the historical period, highlighting the importance of developing effective strategies to address these challenges.}, }
@article {pmid39889454, year = {2025}, author = {Clayton, S and Parnes, MF}, title = {Anxiety and activism in response to climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {62}, number = {}, pages = {101996}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2025.101996}, pmid = {39889454}, issn = {2352-2518}, abstract = {Increasing evidence for climate change is leading to increasing awareness of human impacts, including threats to mental health as well as to social relationships. Experiencing the impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather events or wildfires, as well as awareness of the threat that climate change presents, can lead to anxiety, loss of social connections and support, and relational challenges including aggression and conflict. However, climate change awareness also has the potential to increase engagement in activism designed to promote an effective societal response. Activism can help to mitigate environmental harm as well as promote the well-being of those involved. Further research is needed to understand the circumstances in which climate anxiety can encourage activism, and the conditions and limits surrounding the positive impacts of activism on climate anxiety. Policies and programs could also be established to encourage activism among those distressed about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39886774, year = {2025}, author = {Nufio, CR and Sheffer, MM and Smith, JM and Troutman, MT and Bawa, SJ and Taylor, ED and Schoville, SD and Williams, CM and Buckley, LB}, title = {Insect size responses to climate change vary across elevations according to seasonal timing.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {e3002805}, pmid = {39886774}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Animals ; *Seasons ; *Climate Change ; *Grasshoppers/physiology ; *Body Size/physiology ; Temperature ; Altitude ; }, abstract = {Body size declines are a common response to warming via both plasticity and evolution, but variable size responses have been observed for terrestrial ectotherms. We investigate how temperature-dependent development and growth rates in ectothermic organisms induce variation in size responses. Leveraging long-term data for six montane grasshopper species spanning 1,768-3 901 m, we detect size shifts since ~1960 that depend on elevation and species' seasonal timing. Size shifts have been concentrated at low elevations, with the early emerging species (those that overwinter as juveniles) increasing in size, while later season species are becoming smaller. Interannual temperature variation accounts for the size shifts. The earliest season species may be able to take advantage of warmer conditions accelerating growth during early spring development, whereas warm temperatures may adversely impact later season species via mechanisms such as increased rates of energy use or thermal stress. Grasshoppers tend to capitalize on warm conditions by both getting bigger and reaching adulthood earlier. Our analysis further reinforces the need to move beyond expectations of universal responses to climate change to consider how environmental exposure and sensitivity vary across elevations and life histories.}, }
@article {pmid39884710, year = {2025}, author = {Frumkin, H and Haines, A and Rao, M}, title = {The US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement: could it trump progress on climate change and health?.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {388}, number = {}, pages = {r185}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.r185}, pmid = {39884710}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid39883787, year = {2025}, author = {Worsley-Tonks, KEL and Angwenyi, S and Carlson, C and Cissé, G and Deem, SL and Ferguson, AW and Fèvre, EM and Kimaro, EG and Kimiti, DW and Martins, DJ and Merbold, L and Mottet, A and Murray, S and Muturi, M and Potter, TM and Prasad, S and Wild, H and Hassell, JM}, title = {A framework for managing infectious diseases in rural areas in low- and middle-income countries in the face of climate change-East Africa as a case study.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {e0003892}, pmid = {39883787}, issn = {2767-3375}, abstract = {Climate change is having unprecedented impacts on human health, including increasing infectious disease risk. Despite this, health systems across the world are currently not prepared for novel disease scenarios anticipated with climate change. While the need for health systems to develop climate change adaptation strategies has been stressed in the past, there is no clear consensus on how this can be achieved, especially in rural areas in low- and middle-income countries that experience high disease burdens and climate change impacts simultaneously. Here, we highlight the need to put health systems in the context of climate change and demonstrate how this can be achieved by taking into account all aspects of infectious disease risk (i.e., pathogen hazards, and exposure and vulnerability to these pathogen hazards). The framework focuses on rural communities in East Africa since communities in this region experience climate change impacts, present specific vulnerabilities and exposure to climate-related hazards, and have regular exposure to a high burden of infectious diseases. Implementing the outlined approach can help make health systems climate adapted and avoid slowing momentum towards achieving global health grand challenge targets.}, }
@article {pmid39886618, year = {2024}, author = {Merchant, EK and Grace, K}, title = {Attending to history in climate change-demography research.}, journal = {Vienna yearbook of population research}, volume = {2024}, number = {VYPR 2024}, pages = {25-35}, pmid = {39886618}, issn = {1728-4414}, support = {P2C HD041023/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is among the most urgent challenges of our time. While often considered a problem for the natural and physical sciences, the humanities and social sciences have made equally important interventions into research on the reciprocal relationship between humans and our climate. Because demography occupies the intersection of the natural and social sciences, and because it deals specifically with rates of change in social and natural processes, we believe it can make valuable contributions to the pressing imperatives of understanding and addressing climate change and mitigating the harms it is already visiting on the world's most vulnerable people. We also believe that climate change may afford demographers an opportunity to expand our capacity to think about time and space at finer scales, and to examine the relationships among the core demographic processes - mortality, fertility and migration - which have typically been considered in isolation from one another. Yet responsibly leveraging climate change to advance demography, and leveraging demography to advance climate science and policy, require a cognizance of history that will assist demographers and those who use our analyses in avoiding the replication of past harms and, we hope, the invention of new ones. Understanding the history of demography and of population-environment thought more broadly can help us challenge assumptions that have not served science or policy well in the past - such as the assumption that larger or faster-growing populations necessarily put more pressure on the environment, independent of structural conditions - and consider alternative theoretical framings that might lead to better scientific models and policy solutions.}, }
@article {pmid39882854, year = {2025}, author = {Salubi, EA and Gizaw, Z and Schuster-Wallace, CJ and Pietroniro, A}, title = {Climate change and waterborne diseases in temperate regions: a systematic review.}, journal = {Journal of water and health}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {58-78}, pmid = {39882854}, issn = {1477-8920}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Waterborne Diseases/epidemiology ; Humans ; Europe/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Risk of waterborne diseases (WBDs) persists in temperate regions. The extent of influence of climate-related factors on the risk of specific WBDs in a changing climate and the projections of future climate scenarios on WBDs in temperate regions are unclear. A systematic review was conducted to identify specific waterborne pathogens and diseases prevalent in temperate region literature and transmission cycle associations with a changing climate. Projections of WBD risk based on future climate scenarios and models used to assess future disease risk were identified. Seventy-five peer-reviewed full-text articles for temperate regions published in the English language were included in this review after a search of Scopus and Web of Science databases from 2010 to 2023. Using thematic analysis, climate-related drivers impacting WBD risk were identified. Risk of WBDs was influenced mostly by weather (rainfall: 22% and heavy rainfall: 19%) across the majority of temperate regions and hydrological (streamflow: 50%) factors in Europe. Future climate scenarios suggest that WBD risk is likely to increase in temperate regions. Given the need to understand changes and potential feedback across fate, transport and exposure pathways, more studies should combine data-driven and process-based models to better assess future risks using model simulations.}, }
@article {pmid39882481, year = {2025}, author = {Khazaei, MR}, title = {Projected changes to drought characteristics in Tehran under CMIP6 SSP-RCP climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {e41811}, pmid = {39882481}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Drought represents one of the most devastating natural hazards, significantly impacting economies, societies, and the environment. Climate change is expected to alter future drought characteristics and may increase the severity of droughts. To mitigate these effects, it is essential to identify the characteristics of future droughts influenced by climate change using appropriate methods. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of droughts in Tehran, the capital of Iran, which has a high concentration of the country's population and industrial activities and is currently facing water stress. Using the Modified Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (M-LARS-WG), capable of reproducing inter-annual variability, future projections from four GCMs under four SSP-RCP scenarios from the latest CMIP6 were downscaled. The impacts of climate change on droughts were then assessed using the SPEI and SPI drought indices. The findings suggest that M-LARS-WG was capable of accurately reproducing historical drought characteristics and performed significantly better than LARS-WG. Based on the SPEI, the duration, magnitude, and frequency of future droughts are expected to increase significantly across nearly all GCM projections. Therefore, developing proactive drought risk frameworks and mitigation strategies is essential for reducing damages from future droughts.}, }
@article {pmid39881996, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, J and He, D}, title = {Potential geographical distribution of Cordyceps cicadae and its two hosts in China under climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1519560}, pmid = {39881996}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The fungus Cordyceps cicadae is both edible and medicinal.<br><br>METHODS: To acquire a thorough comprehension of its distribution in China, two host insects, Macrosemia pieli and Platypleura kaempferi, were selected as biological factors potentially associated with its distribution, the ENMTools program was utilized to ascertain the principal environmental factors affecting the distribution of potentially suitable habitats. The possible geographic distributions in the present as well as in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s were then predicted using the optimized MaxEnt model.<br><br>RESULTS: The primary environmental variables were soil pH, mean diurnal range, annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality, annual mean temperature and precipitation of the driest month. C. cicadae thrived on steep slopes. and some of which also significantly affect the distribution of its two hosts. Most of the suitable habitats of C. cicadae and M. pieli were currently found in the subtropical monsoon zone. The SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios were associated with positive, stable, and unfavorable impacts on the extent of suitable habitats for C. cicadae, respectively, and the suitability of P. kaempferi decreased under three different conditions. The expansion of the C. cicadae was observed in provinces bordering the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, as well as in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, and northern Yunnan Province. Conversely, its habitat contraction was mainly found in western Guangdong, southern Guangxi, northern Hainan, southwestern Yunnan, and areas bordering eastern Sichuan. The shared contraction regions with its two hosts were primarily located in western Guangdong, southern Guangxi, and southern Sichuan. Moreover, the future centroids were found at higher elevations than the present ones in the provinces of Jiangxi and Hunan.<br><br>DISCUSSION: In light of climate change, this research held significance for the conservation and sustainable utilization of C. cicadae.}, }
@article {pmid39881621, year = {2025}, author = {Megged, O and Raphael, A and Burstyn, A and Deri, N and Schwartz, S and Eisenberg, R and Toker, O}, title = {Global climate change and seasonal variation of cellulitis in hospitalized children: A 30 year retrospective study.}, journal = {Epidemiology and infection}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-25}, doi = {10.1017/S0950268825000032}, pmid = {39881621}, issn = {1469-4409}, }
@article {pmid39881182, year = {2025}, author = {Campbell, EA and Holl, F and Marwah, HK and Fraser, HS and Craig, SS}, title = {The impact of climate change on vulnerable populations in pediatrics: opportunities for AI, digital health, and beyond-a scoping review and selected case studies.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39881182}, issn = {1530-0447}, abstract = {Climate change critically impacts global pediatric health, presenting unique and escalating challenges due to children's inherent vulnerabilities and ongoing physiological development. This scoping review intricately intertwines the spheres of climate change, pediatric health, and Artificial Intelligence (AI), with a goal to elucidate the potential of AI and digital health in mitigating the adverse child health outcomes induced by environmental alterations, especially in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). A notable gap is uncovered: literature directly correlating AI interventions with climate change-impacted pediatric health is scant, even though substantial research exists at the confluence of AI and health, and health and climate change respectively. We present three case studies about AI's promise in addressing pediatric health issues exacerbated by climate change. The review spotlights substantial obstacles, including technical, ethical, equitable, privacy, and data security challenges in AI applications for pediatric health, necessitating in-depth, future-focused research. Engaging with the intricate nexus of climate change, pediatric health, and AI, this work underpins future explorations into leveraging AI to navigate and neutralize the burgeoning impact of climate change on pediatric health outcomes. IMPACT: Our scoping review highlights the scarcity of literature directly correlating AI interventions with climate change-impacted pediatric health that disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, even though substantial research exists at the confluence of AI and health, and health and climate change respectively. We present three case studies about AI's promise in addressing pediatric health issues exacerbated by climate change. The review spotlights substantial obstacles, including technical, ethical, equitable, privacy, and data security challenges in AI applications for pediatric health, necessitating in-depth, future-focused research.}, }
@article {pmid39880882, year = {2025}, author = {Soliman, AM and Mohamed, AS and Abdel-Khalek, AA and Badran, SR}, title = {Impact of polyvinyl chloride nano-plastics on the biochemical status of Oreochromis niloticus under a predicted global warming scenario.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {3671}, pmid = {39880882}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Polyvinyl Chloride ; *Cichlids/metabolism ; *Oxidative Stress/drug effects ; *Global Warming ; Biomarkers ; Plastics ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity ; Gills/metabolism/drug effects ; Temperature ; Liver/metabolism/drug effects ; Nanoparticles ; Glutathione/metabolism ; Catalase/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Plastic pollution and global warming are widespread issues that lead to several impacts on aquatic organisms. Despite harmful studies on both subjects, there are few studies on how temperature increases plastics' adverse effects on aquatic animals, mainly freshwater species. So, this study aims to clarify the potential impact of temperature increases on the toxicological properties of polyvinyl chloride nano-plastics (PVC-NPs) in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) by measuring biochemical and oxidative biomarkers. The fish groups were subjected to three distinct temperatures (30, 32, and 34 °C) and subsequently separated into two groups: 0 and 10 mg/L of PVC-NPs, as it is expected that these temperatures may modify their chemical properties, which can influence their absorption and toxicity in fish. After 4 days, the biochemical response of fish exposed to PVC-NPs and elevated temperatures showed a significant increase in the levels of plasma total proteins, albumin, globulin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), creatinine, and uric acid. Additionally, the level of oxidative stress biomarkers in the liver, gills, and brain was found to have a significant increase in malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration and a decrease in glutathione reduced (GSH) concentration and catalase (CAT) activity in all studied groups. Finally, the current findings revealed a synergistic cytotoxic effect of PVC-NPs and temperatures on the metabolic and oxidative stress indices of O. niloticus.}, }
@article {pmid39880611, year = {2025}, author = {Xu, J and Su, Z and Liu, C and Nie, Y and Cui, L}, title = {Climate change, air pollution and chronic respiratory diseases: understanding risk factors and the need for adaptive strategies.}, journal = {Environmental health and preventive medicine}, volume = {30}, number = {}, pages = {7}, doi = {10.1265/ehpm.24-00243}, pmid = {39880611}, issn = {1347-4715}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Risk Factors ; Chronic Disease/epidemiology ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Under the background of climate change, the escalating air pollution and extreme weather events have been identified as risk factors for chronic respiratory diseases (CRD), causing serious public health burden worldwide. This review aims to summarize the effects of changed atmospheric environment caused by climate change on CRD. Results indicated an increased risk of CRD (mainly COPD, asthma) associated with environmental factors, such as air pollutants, adverse meteorological conditions, extreme temperatures, sandstorms, wildfire, and atmospheric allergens. Furthermore, this association can be modified by factors such as socioeconomic status, adaptability, individual behavior, medical services. Potential pathophysiological mechanisms linking climate change and increased risk of CRD involved pulmonary inflammation, immune disorders, oxidative stress. Notably, the elderly, children, impoverished groups and people in regions with limited adaptability are more sensitive to respiratory health risks caused by climate change. This review provides a reference for understanding risk factors of CRD in the context of climate change, and calls for the necessity of adaptive strategies. Further interdisciplinary research and global collaboration are needed in the future to enhance adaptability and address climate health inequality.}, }
@article {pmid39879728, year = {2025}, author = {Sorour, DM and Atta, MH and Mohamed, AA and Alfayomy, NA and Othman, AA and Eweida, RS}, title = {Unveiling the interplay between knowledge, self-efficacy, and pro-environmental behavior about climate change in a sample of rural community-dwelling older adults: A national correlational study.}, journal = {Geriatric nursing (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {62}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {72-80}, doi = {10.1016/j.gerinurse.2025.01.007}, pmid = {39879728}, issn = {1528-3984}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a global health concern that affects all of humanity, but it disproportionately impacts older adults, particularly those living in rural communities. Older adults lack the ability to actively engage in pro-environmental actions aimed at adapting to and mitigating the harmful effects of climate change.<br><br>AIM: To investigate the relationship between knowledge, self-efficacy, and pro-environmental behavior regarding climate change, as well as to identify the factors that predict pro-environmental behavior in a sample of rural community-dwelling older adults.<br><br>METHODS: A descriptive correlational research design was used with a convenience sample of 517 older adults aged 60 and above, who were recruited from the post offices of the National Post Authority in Minya Governorate, Egypt. Data were collected using a socio-demographic questionnaire, a Climate Change Knowledge Questionnaire, the Environmental Self-Efficacy Scale (ESE), and the Pro-Environmental Behavior Scale (PEBS).<br><br>RESULTS: A highly statistically significant positive relationship between climate change knowledge, environmental self-efficacy and pro-environmental behavior (r = 0.412, P=.000; r = 0.392[,]P=.000 &amp; r = 0.720, P=.000 respectively) was reported. As well as, climate change knowledge and environmental self-efficacy were predictors of high pro-environmental behavior scores (P=.00, R = 0.785; R[2]=0.617; Adjusted R[2]=0.615; F = 413.289).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Integrating climate change education into Egypt's sustainable development goals is essential for fostering older adults' environmental self-efficacy, which in turn promotes climate change activism among older people in rural communities.}, }
@article {pmid39879312, year = {2025}, author = {Wolfe, JD and Luther, DA and Jirinec, V and Collings, J and Johnson, EI and Bierregaard, RO and Stouffer, PC}, title = {Climate change aggravates bird mortality in pristine tropical forests.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {eadq8086}, pmid = {39879312}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Birds/physiology ; *Tropical Climate ; *Biodiversity ; Rainforest ; Seasons ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Stable understory microclimates within undisturbed rainforests are often considered refugia against climate change. However, this assumption contrasts with emerging evidence of Neotropical bird population declines in intact rainforests. We assessed the vulnerability of resident rainforest birds to climatic variability, focusing on dry season severity characterized by hotter temperatures and reduced rainfall. Analyzing 4264 individual bird captures over 27 years, we found that harsher Amazonian dry seasons significantly reduced apparent survival for 24 of 29 species, with longer-lived species being more strongly affected. Our model predicted that a 1°C increase in average dry season temperature would reduce the mean apparent survival of the understory bird community by 63%. These findings directly link climate change to declining bird survival in the Amazon, challenging the notion that pristine rainforests can fully protect their biodiversity under increasingly severe climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39878913, year = {2025}, author = {Sandal, S and Onu, U and Fung, W and Pippias, M and Smyth, B and De Chiara, L and Bajpai, D and Bilchut, WH and Hafiz, E and Kelly, DM and Bagasha, P and Jha, V and Ethier, I}, title = {Assessing the role of education level on climate change belief, concern and action: a multinational survey of healthcare professionals in nephrology.}, journal = {Journal of nephrology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39878913}, issn = {1724-6059}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses a significant risk to kidney health, and countries with lower national wealth are more vulnerable. Yet, citizens from lower-income countries demonstrate less concern for climate change than those from higher-income countries. Education is a key covariate. To examine its role in explaining this perception gap, we obtained the perspectives of a highly educated cohort of healthcare professionals.<br><br>METHODS: This was a cross-sectional survey of healthcare professionals involved in kidney care. Responses were compared by the income level of the participant's country (per World Bank).<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 849 healthcare professionals from 107 countries (63.4% from lower and middle-income countries) that participated, most believed climate change was happening (97.9%), displayed a high level of concern (73.3%), and took personal action to combat climate change (62.0%). While the proportion who believed in climate change did not vary by income level (high:98.1%, upper-middle:97.2%, lower-middle:97.8%, low:100%, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.73), the proportion with a higher level of concern (high:80.7%, upper-middle:74.9%, lower-middle:67.5%, low:53.8%, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001), and who took climate action (high:76.2%, upper-middle:63.1%, lower-middle:51.2%, low:30.8%, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001) decreased by national wealth. Barriers to involvement in sustainable kidney care were lack of time (54.4%), knowledge (39.7%), and peer support (30.3%). Only 34.0% were aware of national mitigation plans and barriers related to finances, technologies, tools, methods, research, and evidence were perceived as greater obstacles in lower-income countries.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight that predictors and correlates of climate change risk perception vary across countries. Education alone is unlikely to increase individual and group engagement in climate change. A better understanding of these factors can inform strategies towards climate action in different settings.}, }
@article {pmid39878001, year = {2025}, author = {Joshi, M and Varkey, B}, title = {Respiratory hazards of climate change, environmental exposures and diverse topics on COPD.}, journal = {Current opinion in pulmonary medicine}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {77-78}, doi = {10.1097/MCP.0000000000001149}, pmid = {39878001}, issn = {1531-6971}, }
@article {pmid39875653, year = {2025}, author = {Blattner, CE and Finger, R and Ingold, K}, title = {Why farmers are beginning to take their government to court over climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {637}, number = {8048}, pages = {1050-1052}, pmid = {39875653}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39875561, year = {2025}, author = {Cole, AP and Qian, Z and Gupta, N and Leapman, M and Zurl, H and Trinh, QD and Sherman, JD and Loeb, S and Iyer, HS}, title = {Urology on a changing planet: links between climate change and urological disease.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Urology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39875561}, issn = {1759-4820}, abstract = {Urological diseases and their varied forms of management warrant special attention in the setting of climate change. Regarding urological cancers, climate change will probably increase the incidence and severity of cancer diagnoses through exposures to certain environmental risk factors, while simultaneously disrupting cancer care delivery and downstream outcomes. Regarding benign urological diseases, a burgeoning body of work exists on climate-related heat waves, dehydration, urolithiasis, renal injury and infectious and vector-borne diseases. Adding to the potential effect on disease pathogenesis, many patients with urological diseases undergo high-tech, resource-intensive interventions, such as robotic surgery, and entail intensive longitudinal assessments over many years. These features incur a considerable carbon footprint, generate substantial waste, and can introduce vulnerabilities to climate-related weather events. Links exist between planetary health (the health of humans and the natural systems that support our health), climate change and urological disease and urological care providers face many challenges in the era of anthropogenic climate change. The next steps and priorities for research, management, and health care delivery include identification and prioritization of health care delivery strategies to minimize waste and carbon emissions, while supporting climate resilience. Examples include supporting telemedicine, limiting low-value care, and building resilience to minimize impacts of climate-related disasters to prepare for the challenges ahead.}, }
@article {pmid39875443, year = {2025}, author = {Xi, S and Guo, X and Ma, X and Jin, L}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the suitable habitat of Angelica sinensis and analysis of its drivers in China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {3508}, pmid = {39875443}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {GS2021ZDA06//Chinese Academy of Engineering/ ; GS2021ZDA06//Chinese Academy of Engineering/ ; GS2021ZDA06//Chinese Academy of Engineering/ ; GS2021ZDA06//Chinese Academy of Engineering/ ; (2020)153//National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine/ ; (2020)153//National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine/ ; (2020)153//National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine/ ; (2020)153//National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine/ ; ZYZX-2023-KY-083//China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences/ ; ZYZX-2023-KY-083//China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences/ ; ZYZX-2023-KY-083//China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences/ ; ZYZX-2023-KY-083//China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Angelica sinensis/growth &amp; development ; China ; *Ecosystem ; Plants, Medicinal/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate change is shifting optimal habitats for medicinal plants, potentially compromising the efficacy and therapeutic value of herbal remedies. Global warming and increased extreme weather events threaten the sustainability and pharmaceutical integrity of Angelica sinensis (Oliv.) Diels (A. sinensis). Despite its importance in traditional herbal medicine, there is limited research on adaptation of A. sinensis to climate challenges. This study systematically collected occurrence data of A. sinensis through field expeditions and online databases, using the Maxent ecological niche modeling tool and ArcGIS software to forecast suitable habitats. A total of 402 species occurrence points and 21 environmental variables were selected for modeling, resulting in 1,160 distribution models, of which only one met the stringent 5% odds ratio (OR) standard. The optimal model exhibited a pROC value of 0, an OR of 0.0196, and an AICc score of 9,287.133. The model, run ten times for robustness, showed an average AUC of 0.980, indicating high accuracy and reliability. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats for A. sinensis cover approximately 13% of mainland China, primarily in Gansu (73.77%), Qinghai (14.73%), and Sichuan (11.18%) provinces. Environmental factors such as altitude, humidity, and temperature significantly influence the geographical distribution of A. sinensis. The future climate scenario predictions suggest that suitable habitats will generally shift towards higher latitudes, with areas of moderate to high suitability primarily distributed across the provinces of Gansu and Qinghai. The interactions between environmental factors, characterized by mutual and nonlinear enhancement, further influence the spatial differentiation of suitability zones. Overlay analysis with 2020 land cover data indicated that 861,437 km[2] of arable and forest land are suitable for A. sinensis cultivation. Future predictions under four SSP scenarios show varying changes in suitable habitat areas, with the most significant expansion under SSP370 between 2080 and 2100, covering 14.54% of mainland China. These findings provide critical insights for optimizing A. sinensis cultivation regions and quality assessments in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39875400, year = {2025}, author = {Chiriacò, MV and Dămătîrcă, C and Abd Alla, S and Barilari, S and Biancardi Aleu, R and Brazzini, T and Capela Lourenço, T and de Carolis Villars, CA and Durand, S and Di Lallo, G and Encarnação Coelho, R and Espin, O and Ferreras-Alonso, N and Galluccio, G and Ganszky, D and Hellsten, S and Hernández-Moral, G and Ihrfors, J and Keramitsoglou, I and Kiranoudis, CT and Nemethy, A and Oakes, R and Ortuño Castillo, J and Pastor, AV and Pérez-Ramirez, P and Ramos-Diez, I and Sismanidis, P and Trozzo, C and De Notaris, C}, title = {A catalogue of land-based adaptation and mitigation solutions to tackle climate change.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {166}, pmid = {39875400}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101037104//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; }, abstract = {Informing and engaging all actors in the land sector, including land-owners and managers, researchers, policy-makers and citizens, on the most effective sustainable land-based solutions and behavioural changes is a key strategy for achieving climate change adaptation and mitigation targets at the global as well as at EU and local level. One requisite to support actors in the land sector is to provide them publicly available, reliable and ready-to-use information related to the implementation of Land-based Adaptation and Mitigation Solutions (LAMS). Here we introduce a LAMS catalogue, a collection of meaningful quantitative and qualitative information on 60 solutions characterised according to a set of specifications (e.g., mitigation and adaptation potential, cost of implementation, suitability factors, synergies and trade-offs, drivers and barriers to the implementation). The catalogue offers a reliable, science-based tool useful for different users' needs, including valuable references for deriving context-specific quantitative inputs to simulate and evaluate the performance of solutions over time using modelling tools, such as Integrated Assessment Models at any scale.}, }
@article {pmid39874697, year = {2025}, author = {Qiu, H and Han, H and Cheng, X and Kang, F}, title = {Understanding sustainability of woody species suitability zones on the Loess Plateau for optimal creation zone selection in response to future climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {375}, number = {}, pages = {124239}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124239}, pmid = {39874697}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change has profound implications for the distribution of suitable habitats for woody species. In this study, we assessed the optimal distribution thresholds for twelve woody species on the Loess Plateau using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, incorporating sample points of tree species alongside relevant environmental variables. We analyzed the sustainability of potentially suitable zones and proposed a framework for selecting a regulatory model to establish the most suitable creation zones in response to future climate change. The results indicated that: (1) The distributions potentially suitable for Platycladus orientalis and Pinus tabuliformis were predominantly influenced by mean annual temperatures, whereas Pinus armandii and Quercus aliena var. acutiserrata exhibited optimal conditions at temperatures around -4 °C. Both Hippophae rhamnoides and Larix gmelinii var. principis-rupprechtii had suitable threshold precipitation levels exceeding 200 mm, with optimal thresholds surpassing 250 mm. (2) Most high-suitability zones for woody species across various future climate scenarios were primarily located in southern regions, including examples such as Betula platyphylla Sukaczev, Platycladus orientalis, Pinus sylvestris var. mongholica. Some of these high-suitability areas displayed insular and linear distributions, notably Larix gmelinii var. principis-rupprechtii, Quercus aliena var. acutiserrata, Salix cheilophila. (3) There was no southward shift in the northern boundary of the sustainability zones for any woody species across the different scenarios. Betula platyphylla and Salix babylonica exhibited the broadest distribution of sustainability zones. (4) The most suitable areas for the establishment of woody species were primarily found in the western, southern, and eastern regions, whereas the northern and central areas were less favorable for tree growth. Among the scenarios analyzed, SSP585 presents the most extensive distribution area. This study is expected to improve the distribution structure of woody species and the implementation of management policies.}, }
@article {pmid39874244, year = {2025}, author = {Rivas, MDG and Gonzalo, J}, title = {Climate change heterogeneity: A new quantitative approach.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {e0317208}, pmid = {39874244}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Spain ; Temperature ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a spatial and temporarily non-uniform phenomenon that requires understanding its evolution to better evaluate its potential societal and economic impact. The value added of this paper lies in introducing a quantitative methodology grounded in the trend analysis of temperature distribution quantiles to analyze climate change heterogeneity (CCH). By converting these quantiles into time series objects, the methodology empowers the definition and measurement of various relevant concepts in climate change analysis (warming, warming typology, warming amplification and warming acceleration) in a straightforward and robust testable linear regression format. It also facilitates the introduction of new testable concepts like warming dominance to compare (globally or partially) the warming process experienced by different regions. Furthermore, the methodology holds the added significance of concurrently encompassing both temporal and spatial dimensions in temperature analysis, owing to the close alignment between unconditional quantiles and latitude measures. Applying our quantitative methodology for the period 1950-2019 to the Globe (2192 stations) and Spain (30 stations) as a benchmark region, we find that both experience a distributional warming process (beyond the standard average) but of very different types. While the Globe experiences a stronger warming in the lower temperatures than in the upper ones, Spain evolves from equal warming in the whole distribution toward a stronger warming in the upper quantiles (similar to the warming process experienced in the African continent). In the two cases, the warming process accelerates (non-linear behavior) over time and is asymmetrically amplified. Overall, although both the Globe and Spain suffer an equivalent warming process in the median (mean) temperature, Spain's warming dominates the Globe in the upper quantiles and is dominated in the lower tail of the global temperature distribution that corresponds to the Arctic region. Our climate change heterogeneity results open the door to the need for a non-uniform causal-effect climate analysis that goes beyond the standard causality in mean and for a more efficient design of the mitigation-adaptation policies. In particular, the heterogeneity found suggests these policies should contain a common global component and a clear local-regional idiosyncratic element. The latter is usually more straightforward to implement.}, }
@article {pmid39873875, year = {2025}, author = {Hassan, S and Bali, BS and Muneer, W and Yaseen, A and Bhat, S and Zaman, M and Ganiee, SA and Shah, AJ and Ganai, BA}, title = {A review on amino acids as proxies for organic matter degradation in aquatic ecosystems: implications for nutrient cycling, climate change, and ecosystem management.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-025-35949-9}, pmid = {39873875}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The fate and degradation of organic matter in aquatic systems is a vital link in nutrient cycling and sedimentation processes influenced by exogenous and endogenous factors, such as inputs from upstream sources, sediment suspension, and the decomposition of aquatic organisms. The interplay of organic carbon, microbes, and environmental factors shapes the distribution and degradation of organic matter. Characterizing the source distribution of sedimentary organic matter in aquatic systems using novel proxies can unravel new insights into the mechanisms that control its dispersal, preservation and fate, which is essential to understanding the global carbon and nitrogen cycles. Therefore, the present review critically investigated amino acids as crucial markers for assessing the degradation status in lacustrine and marine sediments and highlighted the pivotal function of biotic and abiotic determinants that influence the mineralization of organic matter. The review thoroughly discussed studies on the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of amino acids and their bio-refractory nature to overcome the challenges in evaluating sediment organic matter degradation in aquatic systems. Recognizing the paramount impact of climate change on aquatic ecosystems, the review further elucidated how integrating amino acid-based data into climate models is essential for predicting complex interplay between degradation processes and evolving environmental dynamics. Finally, the specific needs for further research and recommendations for developing efficient and sustainable strategies to study organic matter degradation were highlighted. The present review will deliver fresh inferences to researchers, ecologists, and policymakers for a better understanding of source distribution and degradation status of organic matter for evidence-based conservation and management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39872220, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, GJ}, title = {An innovative approach to predicting global warming without using climate model simulations.}, journal = {National science review}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {nwae453}, pmid = {39872220}, issn = {2053-714X}, }
@article {pmid39871964, year = {2024}, author = {Liang, MS and Dong, Z and Julius, S and Neal, J and Yang, YJ}, title = {Storm Surge Projection and Objective-Based Risk Management for Climate Change Adaptation along the US Atlantic Coast.}, journal = {Journal of water resources planning and management}, volume = {150}, number = {6}, pages = {1-12}, pmid = {39871964}, issn = {1943-5452}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change brings intense hurricanes and storm surges to the US Atlantic coast. These disruptive meteorological events, combined with sea level rise (SLR), inundate coastal areas and adversely impact infrastructure and environmental assets. Thus, storm surge projection and associated risk quantification are needed in coastal adaptation planning and emergency management. However, the projections can have large uncertainties depending on the planning time horizon. Excessive uncertainties arise from inadequately quantified ocean-climatic processes that control hurricane formation, storm track, and SLR in time of climate change. For this challenge, we propose an objective-based analytical-statistical approach using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA)'s Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model in scenario analysis of the storm surge impacts. In this approach, synthetic hurricanes (wind profile and track direction) are simulated to yield the likely range of the maximum envelope of water (MEOW), the maximum of the maximum (MOM), local wind speed, and directions. The surge height and time progression at a location are analyzed using a validated SLOSH model for a given adaptation or planning objective with a set of uncertainty tolerance. We further illustrate the approach in three case studies at Mattapoisett (MA), Bridgeport (CT), and Lower Chesapeake Bay along the US Atlantic coast. Simulated MOMs as the worst-case surge scenarios defined the long-term climate risk to the shoreside wastewater plants in Bridgeport and environmental assets in the Lower Chesapeake Bay. The wind-surge probability envelopes in simulated MEOWs provide location-specific estimates of the storm surge probability for local adaptation analysis at four locations in Lower Chesapeake Bay and at Mattapoisett of the southeastern Massachusetts coast. Using the constraints of local bathymetry and topography, the wind-surge probability curves and time progression also provide quantitative probability estimates for emergency response planning, as illustrated in the Mattapoisett case study.}, }
@article {pmid39871053, year = {2025}, author = {Basegmez, M and Aydin, CC}, title = {Climate change impact on green spaces planning in an urban area using a hybrid approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39871053}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {This study presents a hybrid methodology for planning green spaces to enhance urban sustainability and livability, evaluating the impacts of climate change on cities. Cities, once accommodating a small population, have become major centers of migration and development since the eighteenth century. Rapid urban growth intensifies infrastructure, environmental, and social challenges. Fossil fuel reliance and deforestation increase greenhouse gas emissions, exacerbating climate change, impacting ecosystems, and urban livability. This research assesses green spaces in Izmir's Bayraklı district by assigning weights to site selection criteria via the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), entropy weight method (EWM), and Game Theory. The weighted linear combination (WLC) method integrates these weights to produce decision maps. Game Theory harmonizes discrepancies between AHP and EWM, influencing the decision maps. Notably, incorporating climate change criteria reduced highly suitable areas from 50.3 to 41.5%, stressing climate considerations in planning. Grey relational analysis (GRA) prioritizes investment areas, showing objective, criterion-based planning's importance in sustainable urban development.}, }
@article {pmid39870815, year = {2025}, author = {Masselot, P and Mistry, MN and Rao, S and Huber, V and Monteiro, A and Samoli, E and Stafoggia, M and de'Donato, F and Garcia-Leon, D and Ciscar, JC and Feyen, L and Schneider, A and Katsouyanni, K and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Aunan, K and Gasparrini, A}, title = {Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities.}, journal = {Nature medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39870815}, issn = {1546-170X}, support = {820655//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 820655//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 820655//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; MR/V034162/1//RCUK | Medical Research Council (MRC)/ ; 101022870//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (H2020 Excellent Science - Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions)/ ; 101032087//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (H2020 Excellent Science - Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions)/ ; JRC 36206-2022 // DG REGIO 2022CE160AT126//EC | Directorate-General for Regional Policy (DG Regional Policy)/ ; JRC 36206-2022 // DG REGIO 2022CE160AT126//EC | Directorate-General for Regional Policy (DG Regional Policy)/ ; JRC 36206-2022 // DG REGIO 2022CE160AT126//EC | Directorate-General for Regional Policy (DG Regional Policy)/ ; JRC 36206-2022 // DG REGIO 2022CE160AT126//EC | Directorate-General for Regional Policy (DG Regional Policy)/ ; TMSGI3_211626//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; TMSGI3_211626//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; 101022870//European Commission (EC)/ ; 101022870//European Commission (EC)/ ; 101032087//European Commission (EC)/ ; }, abstract = {Previous health impact assessments of temperature-related mortality in Europe indicated that the mortality burden attributable to cold is much larger than for heat. Questions remain as to whether climate change can result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality. In this study, we estimated how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European urban areas, under several climate, demographic and adaptation scenarios. We showed that, with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe. Under the lowest mitigation and adaptation scenario (SSP3-7.0), we estimate a net death burden due to climate change increasing by 49.9% and cumulating 2,345,410 (95% confidence interval = 327,603 to 4,775,853) climate change-related deaths between 2015 and 2099. This net effect would remain positive even under high adaptation scenarios, whereby a risk attenuation of 50% is still insufficient to reverse the trend under SSP3-7.0. Regional differences suggest a slight net decrease of death rates in Northern European countries but high vulnerability of the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe areas. Unless strong mitigation and adaptation measures are implemented, most European cities should experience an increase of their temperature-related mortality burden.}, }
@article {pmid39870697, year = {2025}, author = {Ao, Q and Li, H and Yang, L and Li, Q and Long, F and Xiao, Y and Zuo, W}, title = {Projecting the global potential distribution of nine Rhododendron Subgenus Hymenanthes species under different climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {3459}, pmid = {39870697}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {32260415//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; Qianke Combination Foundation-ZK [2023] Key 010//The Guizhou Provincial Science and Technology Project/ ; }, mesh = {*Rhododendron ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; China ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {As one of China's most treasured traditional flowers, Rhododendron Subgen. Hymenanthes is renowned worldwide for its evergreen foliage, vibrant flowers, and significant ornamental, landscaping, and economic value. However, climate change poses a serious threat to its future, leading to population declines and endangerment of some species. Despite the ecological and economic importance of Rhododendron Subgen. Hymenanthes, the future distribution of suitable habitats and the most effective strategies for its conservation and utilization remain unclear. This study employs the MaxEnt model, which is well-known for its reliability in predicting species distribution under changing environmental conditions, to predict the potential global distribution of nine species of Rhododendron Subgen. Hymenanthes. The goal is to provide a solid foundation for their conservation, cultivation management, and breeding. The results indicate that, under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas for four species (R. irroratum, R. agastum, R. decorum, and R. arboreum) will significantly decrease, while suitable habitats for the remaining five species (R. delavayi, R. fortunei, R. calophytum, R. simiarum, and R. wardii) will experience slight expansion. Temperature and precipitation are identified as key environmental factors influencing the growth and distribution of these species, affecting their ability to colonize new regions. The migration direction of the expanding regions for all nine species is consistent, with their centroids shifting towards the northwest. These findings provide critical insights for developing targeted conservation strategies, including identifying potential refugia and prioritizing conservation areas under future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39870643, year = {2025}, author = {Bhattacharya, A and Papakonstantinou, KG and Warn, GP and McPhillips, L and Bilec, MM and Forest, CE and Hasan, R and Chavda, D}, title = {Optimal life-cycle adaptation of coastal infrastructure under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {1076}, pmid = {39870643}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {CMMI-2053620//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change-related risk mitigation is typically addressed using cost-benefit analysis that evaluates mitigation strategies against a wide range of simulated scenarios and identifies a static policy to be implemented, without considering future observations. Due to the substantial uncertainties inherent in climate projections, this identified policy will likely be sub-optimal with respect to the actual climate trajectory that evolves in time. In this work, we thus formulate climate risk management as a dynamic decision-making problem based on Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Partially Observable MDPs (POMDPs), taking real-time data into account for evaluating the evolving conditions and related model uncertainties, in order to select the best possible life-cycle actions in time, with global optimality guarantees for the formulated optimization problem. The framework is developed for coastal adaptation applications, considering a wide variety of possible action types, including various forms of nature-based infrastructure. Related environmental impacts of carbon emissions and uptake are also incorporated, and social cost of carbon implications are discussed, together with several future directions and supported features.}, }
@article {pmid39869968, year = {2025}, author = {Dash, S and Maity, R}, title = {Association between hydroclimatic factors and vegetation health: Impact of climate change in the past and future.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {964}, number = {}, pages = {178605}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178605}, pmid = {39869968}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigates the potential impact of future climate scenarios designated by different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) on vegetation health. Considering the entire Indian mainland as the study region, which exhibits a diverse range of climate and vegetation regimes, we analysed long-term past (1981-2020) and future (2021-2100) changes in vegetation greenness across seven vegetation types and four seasons. In order to gain insight into the intricate interrelationships between vegetation and hydroclimatic factors (soil moisture, precipitation, solar radiation, and temperature), a Standardized Vegetation Index (SVI) is used as a proxy for vegetation health, and a bivariate copula-based probabilistic model is developed incorporating a Combined Climate Index (CCI) derived through Supervised Principal Component Analysis (SPCA) and the SVI. Our results indicate that the water-limited areas are more sensitive to precipitation and soil moisture, whereas energy-limited areas are primarily influenced by temperature and solar radiation. Consequently, an overall increase in the vegetation greenness is observed over the past decades in most of water-limited regions, and almost no change or slight decline in greenness over the northeastern regions, where precipitation is abundant but it is an energy-limited region due to high convective activity. Future projections (2021-2100) indicate an overall increase in greenness during monsoons. However, browning (loss of greenness) is anticipated to intensify over time, especially in the northeast. This study demonstrates the model's efficacy in capturing the complex vegetation-climate relationship, highlighting its potential for application across diverse geographical regions and providing insights into the implications of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39869963, year = {2025}, author = {Kebede, MM and Terry, LG and Clement, TP and Mekonnen, MM}, title = {Impact of climate change and land management on nitrate pollution in the high plains aquifer.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {375}, number = {}, pages = {124321}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124321}, pmid = {39869963}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {High concentrations of nitrate in groundwater pose risks to human and environmental health. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change, land use, and fertilizer application rates on groundwater nitrate levels in the High Plains Aquifer under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. A random forest model, with predictors such as fertilizer application rates, cropland coverage, and climate variables from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models, is used to project future nitrate concentrations. Results show increases across all scenarios, with nitrate levels rising by 4% under SSP5-8.5 and up to 13% under SSP2-4.5 when accounting for climate change effects. Fertilizer application rates are identified as the primary driver of projected changes. The northern and central regions of the aquifer exhibited the most pronounced increases. The projected changes in nitrate levels, observed across both low- and high-greenhouse gas emission pathways, highlight the need to develop integrated management strategies that consider shared socioeconomic scenarios and water resource protection constraints.}, }
@article {pmid39869536, year = {2025}, author = {Raulf, M and Annesi-Maesano, I}, title = {Occupational allergy and climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/ACI.0000000000001060}, pmid = {39869536}, issn = {1473-6322}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change influences working conditions in various ways, affecting employee health and safety across different sectors. Climatic factors like rising temperatures, increased UV radiation, and more frequent extreme weather events pose risks to in both indoor and outdoor workers. Allergic diseases of the respiratory tract and the skin may emerge due to climate change. This review summarizes current aspects of both direct and indirect consequences of climate change and associated exposures in diverse work environments, focusing on occupational allergies.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Outdoor workers, in particular, are increasing susceptible to ubiquitous pollen allergens. Additionally, they may experience climate-related increases in allergens typically associated with specific workplaces, such as Cryptostroma corticale. Changes in production processes, along with altered workplaces exposures, can lead to new sensitizations and trigger allergies, representing indirect consequences of climate change. Furthermore, lifestyle changes aimed to promoting climate protection and sustainability (e.g. the introduction of insects as a protein source or using enzymes), may also contribute to the emergence of new allergens.<br><br>SUMMARY: The emergence of new occupational sensitization sources from novel or modified allergen exposures must be addressed within the framework of workplace safety and health, necessitating proactive measures to safeguard workers and mitigate risks.}, }
@article {pmid39869508, year = {2025}, author = {Tan, E and Rosenbach, M}, title = {Underrepresentation of Climate Change and Sustainability Manuscripts in High Impact Dermatology Journals.}, journal = {The British journal of dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/bjd/ljaf037}, pmid = {39869508}, issn = {1365-2133}, }
@article {pmid39869217, year = {2025}, author = {Fonseka, PU and Zhang, H and Premasiri, R and Samarasuriya, C and Rathnayake, U}, title = {Assessing microclimatic influences in Colombo metropolitan area (CMA) amidst global climate change: a comprehensive study from 1980 to 2022.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {2}, pages = {199}, pmid = {39869217}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Microclimate ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Cities ; Temperature ; Rain ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change has become an emerging topic, leading to widespread damage. However, when considering climate, attention is drawn to various scales, and urban microclimate has emerged as a trending subject due to its direct relevance to human living environments. Among the microclimatic factors, temperature and precipitation are utilized in order to identify trends. The identification of changes in precipitation and temperature from ground stations poses difficulties due to the lack of well-distributed stations; thus, satellite-based products are gaining popularity. The satellite products were validated against ground data, following which time-series and spatial analyses were conducted. The rainfall anomaly index, seasonality index, heat wave magnitude index, and mean temperature differ in the Colombo Metropolitan Area compared to the entire country. Each index is calculated decadal-wise to identify trends. By utilizing four climate indices, the analysis endeavors to investigate the microclimate identification in Colombo Metropolitan Area compared to its surrounding areas such as the Western Province and the entire country. This study aids local authorities in mitigating climate change by enhancing city resilience. These findings underscore the importance of understanding and addressing the impacts of climate change on temperature extremes to mitigate potential adverse effects on human activities and the environment. Understanding the specific reasons for spatial changes in rainfall anomalies often necessitates extensive climate modeling and data analysis.}, }
@article {pmid39868940, year = {2025}, author = {Becerra-Amezcua, MP and Matadamas-Guzmán, FM and Hernández-Orihuela, L and Guerrero-Legarreta, I and Guzmán-García, X}, title = {Proteomic Analysis Is Needed to Understand the Vulnerability of Bunodosoma cavernatum Sea Anemones to Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of proteome research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.jproteome.4c00780}, pmid = {39868940}, issn = {1535-3907}, abstract = {Sea anemones play a crucial role in marine ecosystems. Recent studies have highlighted their physiological and ecological responses to thermal stress. Therefore, our objective was to perform a proteomic analysis of Bunodosoma cavernatum sea anemones in the Gulf of Mexico, subjected to thermal stress, to understand whether these organisms activate specific processes to resist increased temperature. We submitted one group of sea anemones to variable temperatures (26 to 32 °C) and another group to a constant temperature (28 °C) for 1.5 months. Then we subjected them to thermal stress (32 °C) for 2 weeks. We evaluated the enzymatic activity and proteome in the columns and tentacles. The main effect of the temperature regime change is a reduction in mass. Also, sea anemones synthesized proteins related to the activation of the immune system and protection against temperature. We observed decreased peroxidase activity, while superoxide dismutase activity was higher only in the constant temperature group. On the basis of these data, we deduce that B. cavernatum sea anemones are vulnerable to climate change because they stop producing toxins in their tentacles when faced with thermal stress and activate cellular responses that make them susceptible to pathogens. These responses are not sufficient to guarantee an optimal health state.}, }
@article {pmid39868709, year = {2024}, author = {Niquil, N and Raoux, A and Thermes, M and Fofack-Garcia, R and Noguès, Q}, title = {[Marine trophic and socio-ecological networks under pressure: study of the cumulative impact of climate change and offshore wind farm development].}, journal = {Biologie aujourd'hui}, volume = {218}, number = {3-4}, pages = {99-103}, doi = {10.1051/jbio/2024012}, pmid = {39868709}, issn = {2105-0686}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Wind ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Animals ; Models, Theoretical ; Food Chain ; }, abstract = {In the anthropocene era, one of the greatest challenges facing trophic modeling applied to the marine environment is its ability to couple the multiple effects of both climate change and local anthropogenic activities, notably the development of offshore wind farms. The major challenge is to create scenarios to characterize their cumulative effects on the functioning of the entire socio-ecological system, in order to propose appropriate management plans. Although modeling cumulative impact on socio-ecological networks is not yet widely used, data reported in the present review article show that the relevance of this approach could be established in the context of offshore wind power. Two modeling procedures are herein described: quantitative mathematical modelling to simulate the effect of two simultaneous pressures on food network properties, and qualitative modelling, which can be based on a participatory approach to more finely characterize feedback loops between governance and ecological systems. These two quantitative and qualitative scenarios modeling methods, based on interaction network analyses, were applied to the future Courseulles-sur-Mer offshore wind farm (eastern Channel), and to the Groix-Belle-Ile pilot wind farm (Atlantic). Finally, we present a research perspective, based on the Sato-Umi concept, which focuses on modeling frameworks combining ecosystem network evolution scenarios and an increased capacity for collective action.}, }
@article {pmid39867255, year = {2024}, author = {Mohammadi-Janbazloufar, K and Atighechian, G and Ostadtaghizadeh, A and Rezaei, F and Hirshon, JM}, title = {Developing an Emergency Medical Services Resilience Assessment Tool in Climate Change: A Study Protocol.}, journal = {International journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {73}, pmid = {39867255}, issn = {2008-7802}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses significant threats to the health and safety of communities worldwide. Extreme weather events can disrupt critical infrastructure and overwhelm emergency medical services (EMS) systems. As the frequency and intensity of these climate-related disasters continue to increase, it is essential that EMS organizations develop robust strategies to enhance their resilience. One important step in building climate-resilient EMS systems is the development of comprehensive assessment tools. Developing a comprehensive tool for assessing the resilience of EMS in the face of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: This research employs an applied, mixed-methods approach to investigate the development and validation of the Emergency Medical Services Resilience Assessment (EMSRA) tool. The study will be executed across four key phases: (a) A scoping review will be conducted to identify the global dimensions and components of EMS systems that demonstrate resilience to the impacts of climate change. (b) A qualitative study, involving semistructured interviews, will be undertaken to explore the specific dimensions and components of EMS resilience within the Iranian context. (c) Based on the findings from the scoping review and qualitative inquiry, assessment items related to EMS resilience in climate change will be extracted and synthesized to develop a pilot version of the EMSRA tool. (d) The pilot EMSRA tool will undergo a rigorous process of quantitative and qualitative validation, including an evaluation of its psychometric properties, to assess the resilience of EMS systems in the face of climate-related challenges.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The development of EMSRA tool will enable the assessment and enhancement of climate change resilience within the national and provincial EMS systems, providing critical data to inform evidence-based strategies and plans for strengthening EMS against the impacts of severe climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid39867166, year = {2025}, author = {Khan, A and Mubeen, M}, title = {Heat Stroke in the Era of Global Warming: A Call for Urgent Action.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {91}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, pmid = {39867166}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {Humans ; *Heat Stroke/epidemiology/therapy ; *Global Warming ; Global Health ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Heat stroke (HS) represents a life‑endangering condition that is due to an imbalance between heat generation and dissipation, owing to exposure to hot environments or strenuous exercise. HS is a medical condition that is gaining increased prevalence throughout the world due to a steady rise in temperature, and massive mortalities have been recorded among vulnerable populations. In 2024, extreme heat waves led to increased cases of HS and related fatalities globally, particularly in Karachi, Pakistan. This article reviews the pathophysiology, effects, treatment, and preventive strategies of HS management. Effective management includes prompt on‑site cooling and symptomatic treatment followed by intensive care for severe cases. In keeping heat‑related illnesses low, indoor stay, hydration, and public awareness campaigns play important roles. The urge of the article, therefore, is that HS demands very serious attention from the global arena and its proactive measures should be enforced to avert this medical emergency globally.}, }
@article {pmid39866426, year = {2025}, author = {Gebru, AB and Gebreyohannes, T and Kahsay, GH}, title = {Modelling climate change and aridity for climate impact studies in semi-arid regions: The case of Giba basin, northern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {e41693}, pmid = {39866426}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {of long-term and future climate variability is crucial for impact assessment studies in drought-prone areas like the Giba basin in northern Ethiopia. This study has applied the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and (De Martonne and Pinna combinative) aridity index methods to evaluate the climate system of the Giba basin. Historical data (1961-2019) from seven meteorological stations and global grided data were used for future climate projections (2020-2100) under the three emission scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) for the three-time horizons (2040s, 2060s, and 2080s). Analysis of results showed that rainfall and temperature projection on a monthly and/or seasonal basis has more significance than on an annual basis for impact studies particularly, in areas where irrigation practices are common like in the Giba basin. Seasonal projection of rainfall in the basin showed a slightly decreasing trend during the spring season (MAM), and a significant increment in the main rainy season (JJA) under all scenarios and for the whole projection year. On an annual basis, a maximum increase of rainfall, up to +285 mm/year and +298 mm/year was expected to increase at Abyi Adi and Mekelle Obs stations, respectively, under RCP 8.5 in the 2080s. Temperature projection showed a consistent rise throughout the basin that ranges from a minimum increase of Tmax by +0.29 °C in the 2040s (RCP 2.6) at Mekelle Obs station to a maximum increase of Tmin by +2.35 °C in the 2080s (RCP8.5) at Abyi Adi station. In general, it is observed that the rate of increment of projected Tmin was more than that of Tmax in all stations in the Giba basin, which showed a continuous contraction of the gap between Tmin and Tmax, hence, the prevalence of global warming. This has led to a considerable increment of aridity till the end of the 21st century. Hence, the implementation of locally-suited climate change resilient strategies is crucial to enhance the sustainability of the ecosystem and ensure food security in the basin.}, }
@article {pmid39866083, year = {2025}, author = {Chauhdary, JN and Li, H and Pan, X and Zaman, M and Anjum, SA and Yang, F and Akbar, N and Azamat, U}, title = {Modeling effects of climate change on crop phenology and yield of wheat-maize cropping system and exploring sustainable solutions.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.14134}, pmid = {39866083}, issn = {1097-0010}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Wheat-maize cropping systems in semi-arid regions are expected to be affected by climate change in the future, which is alarming for global food security, environmental sustainability and socioeconomic development. Therefore, management practices like optimized plant geometry and fertilization need to be explored to counter these expected threats. To do this, the APSIM model was calibrated using 5-year data (from 2017/2018 to 2022) regarding yield, biomass, plant height, emergence, anthesis and crop maturity of wheat and maize from farmer fields.<br><br>RESULTS: The performance of a model run was assessed using root mean square error, normalized root mean square error, coefficient of residual mass, coefficient of determination (R[2]) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, whose average was 1.59, 0.13, 0.001, 0.84 and 0.78, respectively, for calibration while 2.75, 0.20, -0.009, 0.80 and 0.75, respectively, for validation. Regarding crop phenology, it was modelled that the emergence, anthesis and maturity were earlier by 7-9&#x2009;days, 8-10&#x2009;days and 2-6&#x2009;days, respectively, for wheat; 6-10&#x2009;days, 13-20&#x2009;days and 16-24&#x2009;days, respectively, for spring maize; 3-5&#x2009;days, 5-11&#x2009;days and 8-19&#x2009;days, respectively, for autumn maize under different climate change scenarios in near to far future. Simulations revealed the average reduction in the yield of wheat, spring maize and autumn maize by 11.5%, 11.8% and 11.0%, respectively, in near future (2025-2065) while 17.5%, 20.5% and 17.0%, respectively, in far future (2066-2100). Further, simulations discovered the potential of higher levels of fertilization (nitrogen&#x2009;=&#x2009;60-100&#x2009;kg&#x2009;ha[-1] and phosphorus&#x2009;=&#x2009;40-75&#x2009;kg&#x2009;ha[-1] for wheat while nitrogen&#x2009;=&#x2009;75-120&#x2009;kg&#x2009;ha[-1] and phosphorus&#x2009;=&#x2009;40-80&#x2009;kg&#x2009;ha[-1] for maize) and plant density (100 to 150 plants&#x2009;m[-2] for wheat and 8 to 13 plants&#x2009;m[-2] for maize) to enhance the yield of wheat, spring maize and autumn maize by 31-36%, 22-38% and 26-43%, respectively, in near future while 33-38%, 21-55% and 19-31%, respectively, in far future.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The findings underscore the effects of climate change on wheat-maize cropping systems and the importance of implementing optimized fertilization and adjusting plant density to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, thereby safeguarding food security and sustaining agricultural productivity. &#xa9; 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid39865930, year = {2025}, author = {Niella, Y and O'Hara, D and Jonsen, I and Slip, D and Phillips, L and Harcourt, R and Carroll, G}, title = {Spatial, environmental and trophic niche partitioning by seabirds in a climate change hotspot.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.14245}, pmid = {39865930}, issn = {1365-2656}, support = {//Taronga Conservation Society Australia/ ; LP110200603//Australian Research Council/ ; LP160100162//Australian Research Council/ ; //Macquarie University Vice Chancellor's Innovation Fellowship/ ; }, abstract = {For similar species to co-occur in places where resources are limited, they need to adopt strategies that partition resources to reduce competition. Our understanding of the mechanisms behind resource partitioning among sympatric marine predators is evolving, but we lack a clear understanding of how environmental change is impacting these dynamics. We investigated spatial and trophic resource partitioning among three sympatric seabirds with contrasting biological characteristics: greater crested terns Thalasseus bergii (efficient flyer, limited diver, and preference for high quality forage fish), little penguins Eudyptula minor (flightless, efficient diver, and preference for high quality forage fish) and silver gulls Chroicocephalus novaehollandiae (efficient flyer, limited diver and generalist diet). We investigated interannual variability in resource partitioning in relation to environmental variability in a climate change hotspot influenced by the warm and intensifying East Australian Current (EAC). Sampling was conducted from 2012 to 2014 during the austral summer breeding season of seabirds at Montague Island, Australia. Daily seabird movements were monitored using GPS trackers and feather tissues were collected and processed for stable isotope analysis (δ[15]N and δ[13]C). Generalised Linear Mixed Models were used to assess how changes in oceanographic conditions influenced space use for each species. Schoener's D and Bayesian mixing models were used to respectively investigate the levels of yearly inter-specific environmental and trophic niche overlaps. Crested terns and little penguins were less likely to be observed in warm, saline EAC waters and crested terns and silver gulls had smaller foraging areas on days when more than 30% of available habitat was classified as EAC origin. All species preferred areas with low variability in sea surface temperature (<0.5°C). Terns and penguins occupied similar marine trophic levels, with penguins having larger isotopic niche spaces in 2014 when the EAC was more dominant in the study area. Gulls occupied the lowest trophic level, with the widest niche and lowest interannual variability in niche area. As the EAC intensifies along the southeast coast of Australia under climate change, interspecific competition for resources may increase, with the greatest impacts on species like little penguins that have relatively restricted foraging ranges. This study suggests that species-specific biological traits and behavioural plasticity should be accounted for when predicting the effects of climate change on marine species.}, }
@article {pmid39864712, year = {2025}, author = {Ilmiawati, A and Solikhin, A and Mangurai, SUNM and Setiawan, Y and Istikorini, Y and Lowe, AJ and Malik, A and Mubarok, M and Herawati, E and Khabibi, J and Siruru, H and Purnawati, R and Octaviani, EA and Kulat, MI and Kurniawan, T and Larekeng, SH and Muhammad, R and Aulia, F and Firmansyah, MA and Alalawi, AS}, title = {Potential of carbon micro/nanofibers derived from lignocellulose biomass valorisation for CO2 adsorption: A review on decarbonization biotechnology for climate change solutions.}, journal = {International journal of biological macromolecules}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {140305}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2025.140305}, pmid = {39864712}, issn = {1879-0003}, abstract = {Biomass, as a source of lignocellulose, can be valorized into carbon micro/nanofibers for adsorbing greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, especially CO2. This article is derived from systematic evidence evaluation of published studies, presenting new, innovative, and systemic approaches to lignocellulose-based carbon micro/nanofiber studies. The review covers a general overview of carbon micro/nanofiber studies, mapping chronicles of the studies, carbon micro/nanofiber types for CO2 uptake, carbon micro/nanofibers fabrication and characterization, obtained carbonaceous material activation and performances, regulatory frameworks, and sustainability. The published studies show that carbon fiber has been researched for GHG emissions adsorption since the 1950s, with an increasing trend of publication numbers. The trend of studies has commenced from activated carbon to nanocarbonaceous materials and their composites. The excellent performance of both micro/nano-sized carbon provides promising opportunities for absorbing CO2 and other GHGs, such as NO2 and CH4, facilitating decarbonization. Several types of carbonaceous activation processes and modifications were utilized to enhance the performances of the resultant biochars, especially in surface materials, CO2 adsorption capacity, and CO2 selectivity. Proposed mechanisms for the absorption of CO2 by activated carbonaceous materials through physisorption and chemisorption were also observed. To date, regulatory frameworks on the use of activated carbon for CO2 capture are still rarely found, but biochar has been mainstreamed and regulated internationally for CO2 removal. Other regulations have been enacted but have not yet internationally harmonized, mostly focusing on the terminology of carbon nanotubes, characterization, general applications, labelling, packaging, transportation, and the effects of toxicity on health. This study also proposed the sustainability aspects and performance indicators that can be used for circular economy application with an ultimate goal of climate change mitigation through GHG reduction. Besides the regulatory framework, elements of the business model and sustainability were proposed in the circular economy framework of the fibers. By scoping carbon micro/nanofibers studies, it is shown with obvious evidence that carbon micro/nanofibers and their composites have the potential for CO2 adsorption and removal, leading to the acceleration of the decarbonization process that is in line with the Paris Agreement, especially in applying innovative CO2 capture, storage, and utilization (CCSU) technologies.}, }
@article {pmid39864247, year = {2025}, author = {Varghese, FC and Mitra, S}, title = {Assessing consistency in drought risks in India with multiple multivariate meteorological drought indices (MMDI) under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {964}, number = {}, pages = {178617}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178617}, pmid = {39864247}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigates the spatio-temporal consistency of different MMDI formulations and their role in meteorological drought characterization uncertainty under historic and future climates using ERA5 reanalysis, and outputs from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, respectively, across different climate zones and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) in the Indian subcontinent. Six MMDI formulations namely the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), Standardized Palmer Drought Index (SPDI), Standardized Moisture Anomaly Index (SZI) and Supply Demand Drought Index (SDDI) are used. A suite of analysis including agreement mapping, category difference analysis and uncertainty contribution analysis using global sensitivity analysis (GSA) are employed to quantify the consistency of MMDIs and uncertainty in drought characterization due to the MMDI formulation. The variation in MMDI consistency due to different reference evapotranspiration (ETo) methods is also studied. Results demonstrate strong agreement among the MMDIs under historic climate. Under climate change scenarios our findings demonstrate broad agreement among majority of the MMDIs across the study domain, but in substantial areas where MMDI not agree, especially for higher emission scenarios and arid zones. Increased uncertainty under climate change is due to SDDI and SPEI projecting dryer conditions while scPDSI projecting wetter conditions in the far future period owing to varying degrees of sensitivity of MMDIs to its constituent variables (Precipitation and ETo). Results also show that the uncertainty due to MMDIs varied considerably based on ETo methods as well. Finally, based on GSA analysis, the most significant sources of uncertainty in drought projections under climate change are attributed to MMDI-GCM interactions and MMDIs for the Penman-Monteith method. Discrepancies in drought estimates caused by the MMDI selection highlight the need for careful evaluation of drought indices before adopting for climate change impact assessment.}, }
@article {pmid39864162, year = {2025}, author = {Adame, BJ and Corman, SR and Endres, CJ and Farmer, RD and Awonuga, T}, title = {How partisan news outlets frame vested interests in climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {375}, number = {}, pages = {124159}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124159}, pmid = {39864162}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This paper reports a theoretically-driven quantitative content analysis of news media discourse on climate change, its effects, and solutions to understand how US news discourse differs from widely supported scientific conclusions on global climate. Despite the dire warnings and calls to action, US public opinion on the causes and solutions to climate change remain divided. In the global context, the US's split views are anomalous and may be an artifact of the US media's coverage of the climate crisis. Anthropogenic climate change represents one of the most significant threats to our planet. Framed by Vested Interest Theory (VIT), we coded a representative sample of news discourse according to VIT's constituent variables. News sources were selected according to partisan orientation and balanced across the political divide. News articles were parsed into single sentences with source and ordering was randomized for presentation auto human coders. This allowed us to code at a granular level. Results show that not all five variables are equally present, with salience, response-efficacy, and certainty being most frequently referenced. While patterns also reflect a significant partisan divide, we also found unexpected non-linear patterns in the discourse, likely due to the rhetorical style of the sources' reporting. Overall, we conclude that climate change reporting does not reflect the scientific discourse, and that this likely fuels the idiosyncratic American debate on climate change, and its effects and solutions.}, }
@article {pmid39863677, year = {2025}, author = {Ashar, T and Zhang, Y and Yang, C and Xu, W and Zeeshan Ul Haq, M and Tahir, H and Abbas, HMM and Wu, Z}, title = {Rubber intercropping with arboreal and herbaceous species alleviated the global warming potential through the reduction of soil greenhouse gas emissions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {3196}, pmid = {39863677}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {32371637//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; CARS-33-ZP3//Earmarked Fund for China Agriculture Research System/ ; }, mesh = {*Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; *Soil/chemistry ; *Global Warming ; Agriculture/methods ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis/metabolism ; Methane/analysis/metabolism ; Rubber ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; Forestry/methods ; Hevea/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Agroforestry systems are known to enhance soil health and climate resilience, but their impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in rubber-based agroforestry systems across diverse configurations is not fully understood. Here, six representative rubber-based agroforestry systems (encompassing rubber trees intercropped with arboreal, shrub, and herbaceous species) were selected based on a preliminary investigation, including Hevea brasiliensis intercropping with Alpinia oxyphylla (AOM), Alpinia katsumadai (AKH), Coffea arabica (CAA), Theobroma cacao (TCA), Cinnamomum cassia (CCA), and Pandanus amaryllifolius (PAR), and a rubber monoculture as control (RM). Soil physicochemical properties, enzyme activities, and GHG emission characteristics were determined at 0-20 cm soil depth. The results showed that agroforestry systems significantly enhanced most of soil nutrient levels and enzyme activities. In 0-20 cm soil depth, all rubber plantations acted as net carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) resources, and net methane (CH4) sinks. Compared with the RM, the CAA and CCA systems significantly increased the cumulative CO2 and N2O emissions, and the global warming potential (GWP) significantly increased in the CAA (36.78%) and CCA (7.18%) systems, whereas it significantly decreased in the AOM (6.61%), AKH (24.96%), TCA (14.24%), and PAR (41.01%) systems. The soil DOC concentration was the primary factor influencing GHG emissions and GWP. This study provides novel insights into GHG emissions from rubber agroforestry systems and serves as a fundamental reference for climate-smart land use management in rubber plantations. Intercropping rubber trees with arboreal and herbaceous species is recommended over shrub species, considering their beneficial effects in reducing soil GHG emissions and GWP for the sustainable development of rubber plantations on Hainan Island.}, }
@article {pmid39862723, year = {2025}, author = {Jeong, A and Lovison, G and Bussalleu, A and Cirach, M and Dadvand, P and de Hoogh, K and Flexeder, C and Hoek, G and Imboden, M and Karrasch, S and Koppelman, GH and Kress, S and Ljungman, P and Majewska, R and Pershagen, G and Pickford, R and Shen, Y and Vermeulen, RCH and Vlaanderen, JJ and Vogli, M and Wolf, K and Yu, Z and Melén, E and Pac, A and Peters, A and Schikowski, T and Standl, M and Gehring, U and Probst-Hensch, N}, title = {Lung function-associated exposome profile in the era of climate change: Pooled analysis of 8 population-based European cohorts within the EXPANSE project.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {196}, number = {}, pages = {109269}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2025.109269}, pmid = {39862723}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The independent and interrelated long-term effects of the exposome such as air pollution, greenness, and ambient temperature on lung function are not well understood, yet relevant in the light of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Pre-bronchodilation FEV1 from five mature birth cohorts (N&#xa0;=&#xa0;4724) and three adult cohorts (N&#xa0;=&#xa0;6052) from five European countries were used to assess cross-sectional associations with air pollution, greenness, and ambient temperature, assigned to their residential address. All two-way interactions and square terms were a priori included in building the final elastic net regression model. Elastic net regression results were put into the context of different environmental scenarios such as improvement of air quality, improvement of greenness, climate change, or their combinations.<br><br>RESULTS: Elastic net regression of FEV1 z-scores identified non-zero coefficients for many interaction terms, indicating the importance of joint effects of exposure to air pollution, greenness, and temperature. The non-zero coefficients were bigger and more stable in adults than in children. Upon exploring lung function benefits for different environmental scenarios, an improvement of FEV1 was expected in the scenario of improving air quality or greenness. In contrast, negative changes in FEV1 z-scores were expected in the scenario of climate change, characterized by daily temperature increase in summer and decrease in winter. The beneficial FEV1 effects of improving air pollution or greenness were attenuated in the presence of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Complex exposome profiles of long-term exposure to air pollution, greenness, and temperature showed associations with FEV1 in European adults, and to less extent in children and adolescents. Climate change seems to have a negative impact on lung function and modifies the association of air pollution and greenspace with lung function.}, }
@article {pmid39862378, year = {2025}, author = {Heatta, MJ and Hausner, VH and Utsi, TA}, title = {The use of multiple evidence base methods to enrich climate change research and knowledge in the Arctic.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39862378}, issn = {1654-7209}, abstract = {Indigenous and local knowledge (ILK) is increasingly used along with scientific knowledge (SK) to understand climate change. The multi evidence base (MEB) offers ways of combining knowledge systems together. Nonetheless, there is little guidance on how to use MEB approaches in research. Our aim is to systematically evaluate empirical cases using MEB approaches in Arctic climate change research; and explore ILK inclusion in research stages. The mapping followed the ROSES protocol, which provides a checklist of details to be included in the review. The literature search identified 1483 records referring to MEB approaches. We identified seven papers applying the cross-fertilization and nine applying the coproduction approach to combine ILK with SK. The theory of change framework was used to evaluate participation, revealing a distinct difference between the approaches in participant involvement in the research stages. Regardless of MEB approach, the output and outcome of the cases were less clear.}, }
@article {pmid39861646, year = {2025}, author = {Zhao, S and Zhang, Z and Gao, C and Dong, Y and Jing, Z and Du, L and Hou, X}, title = {MaxEnt-Based Predictions of Suitable Potential Distribution of Leymus secalinus Under Current and Future Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {39861646}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {Grant NO. 2022YFF1302803//Xiangyang Hou/ ; Grant NO. 202102140601006//Xiangyang Hou/ ; Grant NO. 2023CYJSTX11//Xiangyang Hou/ ; }, abstract = {Grassland degradation is a serious ecological issue in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China. Utilizing native grasses for the restoration of degraded grasslands is an effective technological approach. Leymus secalinus is a superior indigenous grass species for grassland ecological restoration in northern China. Therefore, the excavation of potential distribution areas of L. secalinus and important ecological factors affecting its distribution is crucial for grassland conservation and restoration of degraded grasslands. Based on 357 data points collected on the natural distribution of L. secalinus, this study employs the jackknife method and Pearson correlation analysis to screen out 23 variables affecting its spatial distribution. The MaxEnt model was used herein to predict the current suitable distribution area of L. secalinus and the suitable distribution of L. secalinus under different SSP scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, and SSP5-85) for future climate. The results showed the following: (1) Mean diurnal temperature range, annual mean temperature, precipitation of the wettest quarter, and elevation are the major factors impacting the distribution of L. secalinus. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, L. secalinus is mainly distributed in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China; in addition, certain suitable areas also exist in parts of Xinjiang, Tibet, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, and Jilin. (3) Under future climate change scenarios, the suitable areas for L. secalinus are generally the same as at present, with slight changes in area under different scenarios, with the largest expansion of 97,222 km[2] of suitable area in 2021-2040 under the SSP1-26 scenario and the largest shrinkage of potential suitable area in 2061-2080 under the SSP2-45 scenario, with 87,983 km[2]. Notably, the northern boundary of the middle- and high-suitability areas is reduced, while the northeastern boundary and some areas of Heilongjiang and Jilin are expanded. The results of this study revealed the suitable climatic conditions and potential distribution range of L. secalinus, which can provide a reference for the conservation, introduction, and cultivation of L. secalinus in new ecological zones, avoiding the blind introduction of inappropriate habitats, and is also crucial for sustaining the economic benefits associated with L. secalinus ecological services.}, }
@article {pmid39861541, year = {2025}, author = {Meyer, JJM and Potgieter, MM and Meyer, NL and Meyer, AC}, title = {Climate Change-Induced Decline in Succulent Euphorbia in Namibia's Arid Regions.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {39861541}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {The global rise in temperatures due to climate change has made it difficult even for specialised desert-adapted plant species to survive on sandy desert soils. Two of Namibia's iconic desert-adapted plant species, Welwitschia mirabilis and the quiver tree Aloidendron dichotomum, have recently been shown to be under threat because of climate change. In the current study, three ecologically important Namibian Euphorbia milk bushes were evaluated for their climate change response. By comparing good-quality aerial photographs from the 1960s and recent 2020s high-resolution satellite images, it was determined by QGIS remote sensing techniques that very high percentages of the large succulents E. damarana, E. gummifera, and E. gregaria have died during the last 50 years in arid areas of Namibia. Areas like Brandberg (northern Namibia), Klein Karas (south-east), and Garub (south-west), with a high sandy-textured ground cover, have seen the loss of around 90% of E. damarana and E. gregaria and about 61% of E. gummifera in this period. This is alarming, as it could threaten the survival of several animal species adapted to feed on them, especially during droughts. This study focused on large succulent euphorbias, distinguishable in satellite images and historical photographs. It was observed that many other plant species are also severely stressed in arid sandy areas. The obtained results were ground-truthed and species identification was confirmed by the chemical analysis of remaining dead twigs using GC-MS and metabolomics. The ERA5 satellite's 2 m above-ground temperature data show a 2 °C rise in annual average noon temperatures since 1950 at the three locations analysed. Annual daily temperatures increased by 1.3 °C since 1950, exceeding the global average rise of about 1.0 °C since 1900. This suggests that euphorbias and other plants on low-water-capacity sandy soils in Namibia face greater climate change pressure than plants globally.}, }
@article {pmid39859660, year = {2025}, author = {Yang, F and Liu, Q and Yang, J and Liu, B and Deng, X and Gan, T and Liao, X and Li, X and Xu, D and Zhuo, Z}, title = {Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on the Asia Habitat Suitability of Troides helena Using the MaxEnt Model.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {39859660}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2022YFE0115200//the National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 20A007, 20E051, 21E040 and 22kA011//Fundamental Research Funds of China West Normal University/ ; }, abstract = {Butterflies are highly sensitive to climate change, and Troides helena, as an endangered butterfly species, is also affected by these changes. To enhance the conservation of T. helena and effectively plan its protected areas, it is crucial to understand the potential impacts of climate change on its distribution. This study utilized a MaxEnt model in combination with ArcGIS technology to predict the global potential suitable habitats of T. helena under current and future climate conditions, using the species' distribution data and relevant environmental variables. The results indicated that the MaxEnt model provided a good prediction accuracy for the distribution of T. helena. Under the current climate scenario, the species is primarily distributed in tropical regions, with high suitability areas concentrated in tropical rainforest climates. In future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas for T. helena in medium and high suitability categories generally show an expansion trend, which increases over time. Especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, by the 2090s, the area of high suitability for T. helena is projected to increase by 42.85%. The analysis of key environmental factors revealed that precipitation of the wettest quarter (Bio16) was the most significant environmental factor affecting the distribution of T. helena. The species has high demands for precipitation and temperature and can adapt to future climate warming. This study is valuable for identifying the optimal conservation areas for T. helena and provides a reference for future conservation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid39858160, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, Q and Ye, J and Kang, Z and Yu, G and Yang, C and Li, J and Tang, T}, title = {Reeve's Muntjac (Muntiacus reevesi) Habitat Suitability Under Climate Change Scenarios in Hupingshan National Nature Reserve, China.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {39858160}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {22B0252//Scientific Research Project of the Education Department of Hunan Province/ ; 2022JJ31000//National Natural Science Foundation project of Hunan Province/ ; 31470642//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2022YFD220050//Key R&amp;D Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China during the 14th Five-Year Plan/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change and human disturbance are critical factors affecting the habitat distribution of wild animals, with implications for management strategies such as protecting migration corridors, habitat restoration, and species conservation. In the Hupingshan National Nature Reserve (NNR), Reeve's muntjac (Muntiacus reevesi) is a key prey species for the South China tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis), which is extinct in the wild and targeted for reintroduction by the Chinese government. Thus, understanding the habitat distribution and abundance of Reeve's muntjac is essential to ensure the survival and sustainability of reintroduced tiger populations. Despite significant conservation efforts, the impacts of climate change and human disturbance on Reeve's muntjac habitat distribution in Hupingshan NNR remain unclear, though these factors could necessitate adaptive tiger management strategies due to shifts in prey abundance. In this study, we employed an optimized MaxEnt model to assess current habitat distribution and identify key environmental variables influencing the habitat distribution of Reeve's muntjac. Assuming non-climatic environmental factors will remain constant over the next century, we projected future habitat distribution under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126 and SSP585) for the mid-century (2050s) and the late-century (2090s). Comparative analyses of current and projected habitat areas revealed potential impacts of climate change on this species. MaxEnt outputs classified habitat suitability into high, medium, and low levels. Results showed that climatic and human disturbance factors contributed 35.2% and 49.4% to habitat suitability, respectively. Under the SSP126 scenario, habitats with decreased suitability covered 0 km[2] in the 2050s, expanding slightly to 4.2 km[2] in the 2090s, while those with increased suitability spanned 491.1 km[2] (2050s) and 463.2 km[2] (2090s). Under the SSP585 scenario, habitats with decreased suitability covered 10.2 km[2] in the 2050s and 431.8 km[2] in the 2090s. Habitats with increased suitability were comparatively smaller under SSP585, covering 162.0 km[2] (2050s) and 1.1 km[2] (2090s). These findings suggest that while mid-century climate projections (SSP126 and SSP585) may support Reeve's muntjac's survival, habitat loss is projected by 2090s (SSP126). Thus, future climate change may lead to decreased habitat suitability and increased fragmentation, raising extinction risks for Reeves's muntjac. Mitigating these effects could involve establishing migration corridors, minimizing human disturbances, and potentially supplementing prey populations with captive-bred prey. Such measures are essential to support the South China tiger reintroduction plan and help ensure that prey availability remains sufficient for sustaining reintroduced tiger populations.}, }
@article {pmid39857460, year = {2024}, author = {Pérez-Mesa, MR and Porras-Contreras, YA and Tuay-Sigua, RN}, title = {Climate Change and Health: A Study of the Attitudes of Future Science Teachers.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {39857460}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Attitude ; Female ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Environmental Health/education ; }, abstract = {Living beings as open systems depend on climate and weather to survive. However, changes in the Earth's climatology, which have become more frequent since the industrial period, have affected different territories of the planet, limiting access to ecosystem services and causing imbalances in health and well-being. The first purpose of this study is to conduct a literature review on academic production regarding climate change and its impact on health, in the context of education, using international academic production condensed in the Web of Science (WOS) database over the last 10 years as a reference. The second purpose focuses on identifying the environmental attitudes of science teachers in initial training regarding aspects related to climate change. The study results show three categories emerging from the literature review: Climate Change and Health, Nature and Risks, and Environment and Energy. For the analysis of environmental attitudes, a survey was conducted with 51 pre-service teachers, consisting of 59 items distributed in five categories: (a) environment, (b) climate change, (c) health, (d) education, and (e) lifestyle. Although the results reveal a positive attitude towards all analyzed categories, it is important to advance effective mitigation and adaptation strategies from the teacher training processes themselves.}, }
@article {pmid39857250, year = {2024}, author = {Arciszewski, M and Pogorzelec, M and Parzymies, M and Bronowicka-Mielniczuk, U and Mieczan, T}, title = {Do Endangered Glacial Relicts Have a Chance for Effective Conservation in the Age of Global Warming? A Case Study: Salix lapponum in Eastern Poland.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {39857250}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {SD.WLH.24.074//University of Life Sciences in Lublin/ ; }, abstract = {The abiotic stresses to which plants are exposed, especially in times of climate change, can result in the disruption of natural plant physiological processes. Sudden atmospheric phenomena may increase the risk of failure in protecting rare and extinction-threatened plant species by translocation. This study aimed to determine the effect of extreme ambient temperatures on the condition and physiological response of Salix lapponum plantlets used for their reintroduction into the natural habitat. Salix lapponum plants obtained by micropropagation methods at different stages of growth under laboratory conditions were subjected to a biological experiment. Plants were exposed for 12 h to temperature extremes (0 °C and 30 °C), after which the values of selected markers of the biochemical response were determined, such as photosynthetic pigments and anthocyanin content, guaiacol peroxidase and catalase activity, the presence of ROS and the RWC value. The study showed that plants at early growth stages were sensitive to low-temperature stress. In contrast, older ones showed a stronger response to high temperature, marked by an increased anthocyanin content and guaiacol peroxidase activity. It was also found that a short exposure to temperature extremes did not change the photosynthetic pigment content or catalase activity. The results of the study may be an important indication for the optimization of plant acclimatization methods in the process of their active protection by species translocation.}, }
@article {pmid39856460, year = {2025}, author = {Adomako, K and Asamoah, L}, title = {Effects of naked neck and frizzle genes on growth and egg-laying performance of chickens in the tropics in an era of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39856460}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {In regions characterized by tropical and subtropical climates, the elevated ambient temperatures exert adverse effects on both broiler and laying chickens, impacting their growth and egg production performance. To mitigate the challenges posed by heat stress, genetic strategies aimed at reducing feather coverage have gained prominence in hot climate areas. Among these approaches, the naked neck (Na) and frizzle (F) genes have emerged as particularly noteworthy. The Na and F genes play a pivotal role in facilitating heat dissipation and temperature regulation. By decreasing feather insulation, these genes enable efficient heat dissipation through exposed areas of the chickens' bodies. This reduction in feather coverage leads to elevated body surface temperature, which, in turn, enhances the capacity for heat loss and contributes to overall body temperature reduction. A substantial body of literature underscores the well-established positive impacts of the naked neck and frizzle genes on growth and egg-laying performance. As a result, these genes hold significant potential for integration into broiler and layer production systems, especially in regions characterized by high tropical temperatures. In the context of broiler farming under challenging heat conditions, the Na and F genes have demonstrated favorable effects on crucial parameters such as feed conversion ratio, body weight gain, disease resistance, and carcass attributes. Likewise, layers exposed to elevated temperatures exhibit enhanced egg production, eggshell quality, fertility, hatchability, and resistance to diseases when these genes are incorporated. Given that the prevalence of the naked neck and frizzle genes is primarily observed in indigenous chicken populations, it becomes imperative to prioritize measures for their conservation due to their exceptional performance in heat-stressed environments. To unlock the full genetic potential of exotic poultry reared in hot and humid conditions, the integration of the Na and F genes is a strongly recommended strategy.}, }
@article {pmid39855413, year = {2025}, author = {Cartwright, A and Khalatbari-Soltani, S and Zhang, Y}, title = {Housing conditions and the health and wellbeing impacts of climate change: a scoping review.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {120846}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.120846}, pmid = {39855413}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Housing conditions are emerging as an important consideration in climate change adaptation. Housing modifications have the potential to improve health outcomes by reducing exposure to changing weather conditions and extreme events. This scoping review aimed to explore the existing evidence examining the contribution of housing conditions to the impacts of climate change on health and identify any research gaps. Literature searches were conducted in Scopus and PubMed from January 2013 to September 2023 and data were analysed using thematic analysis. The review included 38 articles consisting of original studies, reviews, and reports, with broad geographical coverage. The most common focus among included articles was on heat-health impacts; housing conditions found to improve heat-health health outcomes included air conditioning, ventilation, and window shading, and there was support for multifaceted housing adaptations rather than single fixes. Ventilation was found to be a priority for improving indoor air quality, while inappropriate insulation and excessive air tightness were found to increase indoor heat and reduce indoor air quality. The scoping review reveals a need for more empirical and qualitative research into indoor heat in homes, climate change hazards other than heat, and intervention studies to inform climate change adaptation policies around housing and improve public health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid39855234, year = {2025}, author = {Ettinger, J and Fine, J and Thier, K and Badullovich, N and Kotcher, J and Maibach, E}, title = {Communicating with policy makers about climate change, health, and their intersection: a scoping review.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e53-e61}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00307-3}, pmid = {39855234}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Communication ; Administrative Personnel ; Public Health ; Health Policy ; }, abstract = {Ambitious policies are urgently needed to protect human health from the impacts of climate change. Civil society, including researchers and advocates, can help advance such policies by communicating with policy makers. In this scoping review, we examined what is known about effectively communicating with policy makers to encourage them to act on public health, climate change, or their nexus. We analysed 139 studies published in the literature on health, climate, and their intersection that focused on strategies for communicating with policy makers. Among many other recommendations, the most frequently recommended communication strategies were to tailor messaging to target audiences; share accessible, concise, and timely evidence; and build coalitions and trusted relationships. The studies were largely about health communication to policy makers, were predominantly based in high-income countries, and most frequently used case studies, interviews, and surveys as methods. Further experimental research is needed to test the findings generated by non-experimental methods. Additionally, future research should seek to generate and test communication strategies in more low-income and middle-income countries. Based on this literature, we have produced a list of strategic questions that communicators might wish to consider as they prepare to communicate with policy makers.}, }
@article {pmid39854609, year = {2025}, author = {Kim, S and Eom, J and Zhang, Y and Waldhoff, S}, title = {The impact of climate change on Korea's agricultural sector under the national self-sufficiency policy.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {e0313748}, pmid = {39854609}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Republic of Korea ; *Agriculture/economics ; *Food Supply/economics ; Crops, Agricultural/economics/growth &amp; development ; Humans ; Commerce ; Food Security ; }, abstract = {Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries' potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea's agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation's producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.}, }
@article {pmid39853405, year = {2025}, author = {Tokbergenova, A and Kaliyeva, D and Askarova, M and Taukebayev, O and Salmurzauli, R and Zulpykharov, K}, title = {Analysis of agricultural land condition in Western Kazakhstan from 1991 to 2023: the impact of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {2}, pages = {186}, pmid = {39853405}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {&#x2116;AP14871372//Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan/ ; &#x2116;AP14871372//Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan/ ; &#x2116;AP14871372//Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan/ ; &#x2116;AP14871372//Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan/ ; &#x2116;AP14871372//Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan/ ; &#x2116;AP14871372//Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan/ ; }, mesh = {Kazakhstan ; *Climate Change ; *Agriculture ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Soil/chemistry ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Kazakhstan's insufficient food production contributes to its dependency on food imports, highlighting the need for science-based technologies to address land degradation and boost domestic production. The privatisation of land and the establishment of a market economy led to the division of collective farms and significant land fragmentation, resulting in a reduction of agricultural land by 10.6 million ha in the West Kazakhstan region, particularly between 1991 and 2000. Desertification and soil degradation have led to decreased soil fertility, adversely affecting the agricultural industry. Over the last 30 years, the area of eroded soils has increased by 5-9%. As of 2022, over 16.7% of agricultural land remains unused, a substantial rise from 1991. This study aims to investigate the qualitative and quantitative transformations of agricultural land in the region over the past three decades and to assess the impact of climate change on land degradation processes. To achieve this, cartographic analysis of NDVI3g (Global Inventory Monitoring and Modelling System [GIMMS]) data for 1990-2022 was conducted, employing linear ordinary least squares and median Theil-Sen trend methods to identify long-term vegetation trends. The results showed a negative trend in agricultural lands with a decline rate of 0.0025 per year (P = 0.009). However, in the past 13 years, a positive trend was observed in only three regions, with an average increase of 0.007 per year (P = 0.03). These findings are statistically significant and highlight the growing impact of climatic factors on agricultural and natural ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid39850029, year = {2024}, author = {Sim-Sarka, K}, title = {Contesting crisis narratives amidst climatic breakdown: Climate change, mobility, and state-centric approaches to migration.}, journal = {Frontiers in sociology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1411683}, pmid = {39850029}, issn = {2297-7775}, abstract = {Human mobility in the context of climate change is often identified as one of the largest future impacts of the climate crisis. It is often assumed by international institutions and national governments that climate change will drive mass migration movements across borders, leading to a prioritization of research that aims to predict future climate migration to aid border security and the creation of migration policies. This article focuses on knowledge production research concerning around climate-related mobility and how knowledge being produced upholds state-centric approaches to migration and migration management. It argues that by leaving state-centric approaches to migration unquestioned in the name of managing climate-related mobility, national governments and other institutions reproduce inequalities for those who are in the nexus of migration and climate change. This article considers alternative conceptions of mobility and climate change, including the climate mobilities paradigm and decolonial understandings of migration, and how these can shift our analytical focus to more holistic and decolonial understandings of migration.}, }
@article {pmid39848795, year = {2025}, author = {Pinchoff, J and Etetim, EO and Babatunde, D and Blomstrom, E and Ainul, S and Akomolafe, TO and Medina Carranza, B and Del Valle, A and Austrian, K}, title = {How climate change is shaping young people's health: a participatory, youth co-led study from Bangladesh, Guatemala and Nigeria.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2024-016788}, pmid = {39848795}, issn = {2059-7908}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Adolescent ; Nigeria ; Female ; Male ; Young Adult ; Bangladesh ; Guatemala ; Adult ; Child ; *Focus Groups ; Qualitative Research ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is shaping adolescent and young people's (AYP) transitions to adulthood with significant and often compounding effects on their physical and mental health. The climate crisis is an intergenerational inequity, with the current generation of young people exposed to more climate events over their lifetime than any previous one. Despite this injustice, research and policy to date lacks AYP's perspectives and active engagement.<br><br>METHODS: Participatory, youth co-led qualitative focus group discussions were held in Bangladesh, Guatemala and Nigeria in mid-2023. A total of 196 AYP ages 12-25 years participated. Open-ended questions elicited responses regarding AYP knowledge, experiences and perceptions of climate change. Using NVivo software, translated transcripts were coded to explore and synthesise key thematic areas.<br><br>RESULTS: Respondents discussed varied climate exposures and associated health risks, for example, how flooding events were impeding access to sexual and reproductive health commodities. Acute climate events like flooding and cyclones increased perceived risk of early marriage and gender-based violence in Bangladesh and Guatemala. In Nigeria, respondents discussed health effects of extreme heat, and how droughts were shifting women into more traditionally male roles in agriculture and income-generating activities, increasing the perceived risk of household tensions and gender-based violence. Commonly reported themes included perceived climate impacts on sexual and reproductive health including early marriage or gender-based violence. Another common theme was anxiety about climate change, its effects on economic and food insecurity in communities and feeling hopeless, lacking agency and not feeling supported by local institutions, all linked with worse mental health.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our results summarise how AYP perceive climate change is affecting their physical and mental health, finding similarities and differences across these three settings. Our results can inform the development of policies and programmes that directly address AYP needs in a way that is inclusive and responsive.}, }
@article {pmid39848183, year = {2025}, author = {Hossain, SA and Murali R, M}, title = {Assessing the potential effects of climate change on the morphodynamics of the tropical coral reef islands in the Gulf of Mannar, Indian Ocean.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {375}, number = {}, pages = {124122}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124122}, pmid = {39848183}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Low-lying and small tropical coral reef islands around the world are extremely vulnerable to the effects of global environmental change caused by the combination of anthropogenic climate change and escalating extreme hydrodynamic events. Erosion and inundation are anticipated to physically destabilize the tropical coral reef islands, rendering them uninhabitable within the next century. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the repercussions of these hazardous events on the delicate reef island ecosystem in order to conserve and ensure sustainable management. Multitemporal remotely sensed Landsat satellite imageries were utilized to investigate the net and decadal morphological transformation of tropical coral reef islands in the Gulf of Mannar, Indian Ocean. Over the past half-century, these islands have consistently adapted to global environmental changes, even while local sea levels rise at a rate of 3.38 mm per year. Advanced statistical techniques, such as net shoreline movement (NSM), end point rate (EPR), and linear regression rate (LRR), were employed for estimating the shoreline change rate using a Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). In addition, the GIS-based overlay analysis methods were applied to examine the net and decadal areal (planform) changes and also utilized for estimating the inundation trajectories of reef islands under the sea level rise scenarios of 1 m and 2 m. Furthermore, time series analysis was performed to analyze the variability of critical climate-induced factors using archived reanalysis oceanographic data. In addition, linear and polynomial statistical techniques were applied to investigate the driving factors behind the coral reef island morphological transition. The findings show that two islands have already disappeared, while others have experienced a dramatic reduction in their footprint. Approximately 62.64% of the shoreline experienced significant erosion, while 36.91% witnessed gradual accretion. The Tuticorin group confronted the severe reduction in island footprint, with a significant decrease of 83.04%, followed by Keelakarai groups (33.35%), Mandapam groups (29.60%), Vembar groups (28.14%), and Rameswaram islands (3.43%). The study also predicts that the island footprint could submerge in an area of 627.30 ha and 1284.21 ha within the next century, with an expected sea level rise (SLR) of 1 m and 2 m, respectively. The study emphasizes that the combination of human-induced factors and regional coastal processes such as sea level rise and swells are the key drivers engendering the stress on the physical resilience of the coral reef islands. Urgent and continual monitoring of the reef islands is crucial for a better understanding of their dynamic trajectories and for developing nature-based solutions to catastrophic erosion. These nature-based solutions (NbS) for minimizing island erosion are initiatives that use natural ecosystems to safeguard islands while enhancing biodiversity, climate resilience, and community livelihoods. The interactions between nature-based solutions (NbS) for combating erosion, reef island resilience, and Sustainable Development Goals are evaluated based on the positive correlation, our expert knowledge, and Griggs et al.'s 2017 seven-point scale framework. The outcomes of this study may provide comprehensive insights to decision-makers and administrators for formulating and implementing policies for long-term resilience building and sustainable island management.}, }
@article {pmid39847235, year = {2025}, author = {Rathod, AK and Somagond, YM and E, L and Kumar, A and K K, K and Nikhil, KC and Jadhav, SE and Aderao, GN}, title = {Role of micronutrients in production and reproduction of farm animals under climate change scenario.}, journal = {Tropical animal health and production}, volume = {57}, number = {2}, pages = {31}, pmid = {39847235}, issn = {1573-7438}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Micronutrients/analysis/administration &amp; dosage ; *Livestock/physiology ; *Reproduction/physiology ; Animal Husbandry/methods ; Animal Nutritional Physiological Phenomena ; Animal Feed/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses significant challenges to livestock production worldwide. Wherein, it affects communities in developing nations primarily dependent on agriculture and animal husbandry. Its direct and indirect deleterious effects on agriculture and animal husbandry includes aberrant changes in weather patterns resulting in disturbed homeorhetic mechanism of livestock vis a vis indirectly affecting nutrient composition of feed and fodder. The nutritional stress (i.e. non-availability of nutrients in the required quantity and quality for particular livestock) is the critical factor affecting livestock performance, productivity, and reproductive efficiency. Nutritional stress may arise from both macro- and micro- nutrient imbalances; however, micronutrients are of paramount importance in climate change context due to their role in various vital functions of body namely, body metabolism, production, reproduction, and health. The micronutrients, minerals and vitamins, when supplied in adequate quantity and proportion aid in mitigating the stress induced by climate change on animals. Here, we tried to discuss the impact of climate change induced stresses on milk production, reproduction, and metabolic acclimation of heat-stressed animals. Furthermore, emphasis is given on the importance of dietary micronutrients management strategies to support livestock health and resilience during changing climatic conditions. By addressing the nutritional needs of livestock, farmers can achieve sustainability and well-being in livestock production under changing climatic condition.}, }
@article {pmid39845688, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, DD and Tu, JH and Ling, KN and Jin, XH and Huang, HY}, title = {Climate change and suicide epidemiology: a systematic review and meta-analysis of gender variations in global suicide rates.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {1463676}, pmid = {39845688}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Male ; Female ; *Climate Change ; *Suicide/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Sex Factors ; Suicidal Ideation ; Suicide, Attempted/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is reshaping public health, introducing extreme weather conditions and environmental stressors-such as high temperatures, atmospheric pollution, desertification, and storms (rain, thunder, and hail)-that critically impact mental health. Evidence increasingly links these factors to higher rates of suicide-related outcomes, including suicidal ideation, attempts, and self-harm. Such interactions underscore the importance of understanding how climate-driven mental health risks vary by environmental factor and gender, as gender-specific vulnerabilities shape responses to climate stressors.<br><br>METHODS: By April 16, 2024, we conducted a comprehensive search of PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, Scopus, ProQuest, and Embase. Two researchers independently reviewed studies and collected demographic data, systematically tracking and recording rates of suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, suicide deaths, self-harm, and anxiety. Data were rigorously cross-verified for accuracy and consistency.<br><br>RESULTS: The meta-analysis demonstrated significant associations between climate change variables and mental health outcomes. High temperatures and air pollution were linked to increased suicide attempts (OR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.34-1.45) and suicide deaths (OR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.44-1.58), particularly among males. Conversely, atmospheric pollution and desertification correlated with a reduced likelihood of suicidal ideation (OR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.63-0.85). These findings highlight gender-specific mental health impacts, with females exhibiting higher rates of anxiety and self-harm, underscoring the urgent need for targeted interventions addressing climate-induced mental health risks.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and meta-analysis reveal significant gender-specific mental health impacts of climate change, with females experiencing higher rates of anxiety, self-harm, and suicidal ideation, while males show greater incidences of suicide attempts and deaths. These findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted interventions and the integration of mental health services into climate policies to address these gender disparities.<br><br>This study is registered with PROSPERO [PROSPERO (york.ac.uk)] under the identifier [CRD42024534961].}, }
@article {pmid39843632, year = {2025}, author = {Gao, Y and Cui, J and Zhang, X and Hoogenboom, G and Wallach, D and Huang, Y and Reis, S and Lin, T and Gu, B}, title = {Cost-effective adaptations increase rice production while reducing pollution under climate change.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39843632}, issn = {2662-1355}, support = {42325707//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 42261144001//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 2022YFE0138200//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 2022C02008//Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation)/ ; ZJ2022086//Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation)/ ; }, abstract = {Rice is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) and nitrogen pollution. While best management practices have been developed to enhance the sustainability of rice production under current climates, their adaptability and efficacy under future climate scenarios remain uncertain. Here we evaluated 49 best management practices across global grid cells of rice-producing areas in terms of increasing rice production, reducing GHG emissions and minimizing nitrogen pollution under future climate conditions. Optimal climate adaptation measures were assigned to each grid cell. We show that implementing the proposed adaptation strategy could increase global rice production by 36% while reducing GHG emissions and nitrogen losses by 23% and 32%, respectively. This approach could lead to a global benefit of US$117 billion for food supply, resource saving, climate mitigation and environmental protection, with total implementation costs of US$13 billion. Establishing practical and cost-effective adaptation strategies is critical for the sustainable development of the global agricultural system in the face of climate challenges.}, }
@article {pmid39843615, year = {2025}, author = {Li, C and Camac, J and Robinson, A and Kompas, T}, title = {Predicting changes in agricultural yields under climate change scenarios and their implications for global food security.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2858}, pmid = {39843615}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {501100009311//Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Security ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; *Agriculture/methods ; Humans ; Oryza/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate change has direct impacts on current and future agricultural productivity. Statistical meta-analysis models can be used to generate expectations of crop yield responses to climatic factors by pooling data from controlled experiments. However, methodological challenges in performing these meta-analyses, together with combined uncertainty from various sources, make it difficult to validate model results. We present updates to published estimates of crop yield responses to projected temperature, precipitation, and CO2 patterns and show that mixed effects models perform better than pooled OLS models on root mean squared error (RMSE) and explained deviance, despite the common usage of pooled OLS in previous meta-analyses. Based on our analysis, the use of pooled OLS may underestimate yield losses. We also use a block-bootstrapping approach to quantify uncertainty across multiple dimensions, including modeler choices, climate projections from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and emissions scenarios from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Our estimates show projected yield responses of - 22% (maize), - 9% (rice), - 15% (soy), and - 14% (wheat) from 2015 to 2080-2100 under the business-as-usual scenario of SSP5-8.5, which reduce to - 3.8%, - 2.7%, 1.4%, and - 1.5% respectively under the lower emissions scenario of SSP1-2.6. Without mitigation and adaptation, countries in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, North America, and Oceania could become at risk of being unable to meet national calorie demand by the end of the century under the most severe emissions scenario.}, }
@article {pmid39841633, year = {2025}, author = {Furuta, J and Bromley, P}, title = {Globalizing opposition to pro-environmental institutions: The growth of counter climate change organizations around the world, 1990 to 2018.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {e0315012}, pmid = {39841633}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; United States ; Internationality ; Organizations ; Conservation of Natural Resources/trends ; }, abstract = {More than two decades of social scientific research has identified the growing network of corporations, think tanks, nonprofits, and advocacy organizations that aim to obstruct climate change action within the United States. Conventional arguments emphasize the role of economic self-interest (e.g., wealthy and powerful corporations) in shaping the rise of an organized "counter climate change movement" that seeks to discredit evidence about anthropogenic climate change and derail solutions to address the problem. In this paper, we track the growth of counter climate change organizations around the world and emphasize the role of reactionary cultural dynamics in driving their emergence. As climate change discourse is infused in more areas throughout society, climate change issues become more salient in the public sphere, generating adversarial grievances, identities, and mobilization among oppositional groups. Drawing on panel logistic regression models for 162-164 countries from 1990 to 2018, we find that counter climate change organizations are most likely to develop in countries with more extensive state policies and structures oriented toward protecting the natural environment, net of a variety of factors that account for a country's economic interests or its overall capacity to produce domestic associations.}, }
@article {pmid39840362, year = {2024}, author = {Shen, L and Zhai, D and Lu, X}, title = {Mapping the priority conservation areas for three endangered Cupressaceae plants under climate change in China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1495442}, pmid = {39840362}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The establishment of conservation areas is an important strategy for endangered species conservation. In this study, we investigated the distributions of suitable habitat areas for three level 1 endangered Cupressaceae plants (Metasequoia glyptostroboides, Glyptostrobus pensilis, and Thuja sutchuenensis) in China and used the Marxan model to delineate the priority conservation areas for each species. The results showed that M. glyptostroboides had the broadest suitable growing area under the current climate in China and is followed by G. pensilis, with an area of 91 × 10[4] km[2], and T. sutchuenensis had the smallest suitable habitat areas at only 7 × 10[4] km[2]. Affected by climate change, the suitable ranges of these three Cupressaceae species moved largely northward at the middle and end of this century, with a latitudinal increase of 0.46-1.99°. T. sutchuenensis will face an extremely high extinction risk by the end of this century; 65.54% of its southern suitable habitat area will no longer be suitable for growth. Based on the effects of climate change, M. glyptostroboides priority conservation areas should be established in the Yangtze River Basin; G. pensilis priority conservation areas should be established in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, and Jiangxi; and T. sutchuenensis protection districts should be established at the intersection of the northeastern part of Sichuan Province and the northern part of Chongqing. This study helps to clarify the impact of climate change on endangered species.}, }
@article {pmid39839339, year = {2025}, author = {Chen, K and Ma, L and Jiang, W and Wang, L and Wei, L and Zhang, H and Yang, R}, title = {Anthropogenic Disturbance and Climate Change Impacts on the Suitable Habitat of Sphenomorphus incognitus in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {e70848}, pmid = {39839339}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Estimating the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on species' spatial distributions is crucial for conservation. In this study, based on 62 valid occurrence records of Sphenomorphus incognitus and 24 environmental factors (19 climate factors, 4 topographic factors, and 1 human activity factor), we utilized the biomod2 combined model platform to predict suitable habitats for S. incognitus under two current scenarios (Scenario 1: natural state; Scenario 2: human interference state) and two future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in 2050s and 2090s. The mean true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) suggested that the ensemble model yield more precise predictions than those of individual models. Rainfall and slope were identified as the most important factors influencing S. incognitus distribution. Human disturbance has significantly reduced suitable habitat by 44.13 × 10[4] km[2], which is a decrease in 23.95% compared to natural conditions. Spatial analysis revealed substantial fragmentation of suitable habitat due to human activities. The incorporation of anthropogenic factors into the analysis of future climate scenarios has revealed that the area of suitable habitat exhibits divergent trends. Two distinct scenarios have been identified, each of which results in a reduction in the area of the region by 29.58 × 10[4] km[2] and an increase by 27.04 × 10[4] km[2], respectively, by the year 2090. The primary influence persists in human activities. The centroid of suitable habitat shifted toward the southeast under SSP1-2.6 and toward the northwest under SSP5-8.5. Our findings highlight the significant impact of anthropogenic factors on S. incognitus habitat and emphasize the need for conservation measures. Future research should incorporate additional socioeconomic data to further investigate the effects of human disturbance on this species.}, }
@article {pmid39838051, year = {2025}, author = {Mitchell, D}, title = {Why we still don't know the mounting health risks of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {637}, number = {8047}, pages = {766}, pmid = {39838051}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39836654, year = {2025}, author = {Cuervo, PF and Bargues, MD and Artigas, P and Buchon, P and Angles, R and Mas-Coma, S}, title = {Heterogeneous zonal impacts of climate change on a wide hyperendemic area of human and animal fascioliasis assessed within a One Health action for prevention and control.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {e0012820}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0012820}, pmid = {39836654}, issn = {1935-2735}, abstract = {The Northern Bolivian Altiplano is the fascioliasis endemic area where the highest prevalences and intensities in humans have been recorded. In this hyperendemic area of human fascioliasis, the disease is caused only by Fasciola hepatica and transmitted by Galba truncatula, the sole lymnaeid species present in the area. When analysing the link between global warning and the recently reported geographical spread of lymnaeid populations to out-border localities, a marked heterogeneous climatic change was found throughout the endemic area. The aim of the present study is to analyse the physiographical heterogeneity of the fascioliasis hyperendemic area in the Northern Bolivian Altiplano, in order to assess its repercussions in the implementation of a One Health action. We applied multivariate linear mixed models to analyse the influence of a number of physiographical features on the long-term variation of climate and of the risk of transmission. Despite its apparent physiographic homogeneity, the findings of this study revealed markedly heterogeneous climate characteristics throughout the endemic area. This irregular pattern is influenced by physiographical features such as altitude, inner hills, closeness to Lake Titicaca, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This is the broadest study ever performed in a human fascioliasis endemic area about the influence of physiography on climate. It highlights the importance of considering physiographical features, an aspect usually not considered in studies dealing with the influences of climate and climate change on human and animal fascioliasis. Moreover, it shows that an endemic area may climatically evolve differently in its various inner zones and emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring to assess whether control measures should be modified accordingly.}, }
@article {pmid39836230, year = {2025}, author = {Roth, M and Geerling, G}, title = {[Climate change-A multifaceted challenge for ophthalmology].}, journal = {Die Ophthalmologie}, volume = {122}, number = {1}, pages = {2-3}, pmid = {39836230}, issn = {2731-7218}, }
@article {pmid39835365, year = {2025}, author = {Azrag, AA and Niassy, S and Bloukounon-Goubalan, AY and Abdel-Rahman, EM and Tonnang, HE and Mohamed, SA}, title = {Cotton production areas are at high risk of invasion by Amrasca biguttula (Ishida) (Cicadellidae: Hemiptera): potential distribution under climate change.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.8659}, pmid = {39835365}, issn = {1526-4998}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The cotton jassid, Amrasca biguttula, a dangerous and polyphagous pest, has recently invaded the Middle East, Africa and South America, raising concerns about the future of cotton and other food crops including okra, eggplant and potato. However, its potential distribution remains largely unknown, posing a challenge in developing effective phytosanitary strategies. We used an ensemble model of six machine-learning algorithms including random forest, maxent, support vector machines, classification and regression tree, generalized linear model and boosted regression trees to forecast the potential distribution of A. biguttula in the present and future using presence records of the pest and bioclimatic predictors. The accuracy of these algorithms was assessed based on the area under the curve (AUC), correlation (COR), deviance and true skill statistic (TSS).<br><br>RESULTS: All algorithms showed good performance in forecasting the distribution of A.&#x2009;biguttula (AUC&#x2009;&#x2265;&#x2009;0.91, COR&#x2009;&#x2265;&#x2009;0.72, TSS&#x2009;&#x2265;&#x2009;0.77 and deviance&#x2009;&#x2264;&#x2009;0.65). Mean temperature of wettest quarter, mean temperature of driest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month were the key variables that contributed to predicting A.&#x2009;biguttula occurrence. Projection of the model showed that cotton production areas in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America are at threat of invasion by A.&#x2009;biguttula under the current climatic scenario. Additionally, range expansion for A.&#x2009;biguttula is projected in the future in sub-Saharan Africa, South America and China, indicating a suitable ecological niche for A.&#x2009;biguttula to thrive.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our results provide early warning and decision-making information that can guide efforts to prevent this pest's further spread and invasion into new areas. &#xa9; 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid39834218, year = {2025}, author = {Chang, X and Feng, S and Ullah, F and Zhang, Y and Zhang, Y and Qin, Y and Nderitu, JH and Dong, Y and Huang, W and Zhang, Z and Tu, X}, title = {Adapting distribution patterns of desert locusts, Schistocerca gregaria in response to global climate change.}, journal = {Bulletin of entomological research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1017/S0007485324000440}, pmid = {39834218}, issn = {1475-2670}, abstract = {The desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) is a destructive migratory pest, posing great threat to over 60 countries globally. In the backdrop of climate change, the habitat suitability of desert locusts is poised to undergo alterations. Hence, investigating the shifting dynamics of desert locust habitats holds profound significance in ensuring global agricultural resilience and food security. In this study, we combined the maximum entropy modelling and geographic information system technology to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change on the distribution patterns and habitat adaptability of desert locusts. The results indicate that the suitable areas for desert locusts (0.2976 × 10[8] km[2]) are concentrated in northern Africa and southwestern Asia, accounting for 19.97% of the total global land area. Key environmental variables affecting the desert locust distribution include temperature annual range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, average temperature of February, and precipitation of the driest month. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios, potential suitable areas for desert locusts are estimated to increase from 2030 (2021-2040) to 2090 (2081-2100). By 2090, highly suitable areas for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 are projected to be 0.0606 × 10[8] and 0.0891 × 10[8] km[2], respectively, reflecting an expansion of 1.84 and 2.77% compared to existing ones. These research findings provide a theoretical basis for adopting prevention and control strategies for desert locusts.}, }
@article {pmid39833457, year = {2025}, author = {Gulcebi, MI and Leddy, S and Behl, K and Dijk, DJ and Marder, E and Maslin, M and Mavrogianni, A and Tipton, M and Werring, DJ and Sisodiya, SM}, title = {Imperatives and co-benefits of research into climate change and neurological disease.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Neurology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39833457}, issn = {1759-4766}, abstract = {Evidence suggests that anthropogenic climate change is accelerating and is affecting human health globally. Despite urgent calls to address health effects in the context of the additional challenges of environmental degradation, biodiversity loss and ageing populations, the effects of climate change on specific health conditions are still poorly understood. Neurological diseases contribute substantially to the global burden of disease, and the possible direct and indirect consequences of climate change for people with these conditions are a cause for concern. Unaccustomed temperature extremes can impair the systems of resilience of the brain, thereby exacerbating or increasing susceptibility to neurological disease. In this Perspective, we explore how changing weather patterns resulting from climate change affect sleep - an essential restorative human brain activity, the quality of which is important for people with neurological diseases. We also consider the pervasive and complex influences of climate change on two common neurological conditions: stroke and epilepsy. We highlight the urgent need for research into the mechanisms underlying the effects of climate change on the brain in health and disease. We also discuss how neurologists can respond constructively to the climate crisis by raising awareness and promoting mitigation measures and research - actions that will bring widespread co-benefits.}, }
@article {pmid39833452, year = {2025}, author = {Behmanesh, B and Sharaftmandrad, M and Shahraki, M and Badripour, H}, title = {Climate change adaptation strategies adopted by pastoralists in rangelands in Golestan province, Iran.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2496}, pmid = {39833452}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is a serious challenge to pastoralism in rangelands. Adaptation strategies adopted by pastoralists can reduce their livelihood vulnerability to cope with adverse effects of climate change. This study was done to investigate the adaptation strategies of pastoralists in the north of Golestan province, Iran. Data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire. The statistical population consisted of 200 pastoralists from 3 pastoral units, of which 127 individuals were sampled using stratified random method. The results showed that 33.1% of the pastoralists had moderate adaptability to climate change. They had more adaptive capacity in cost saving and improving savings, health and veterinary services, and use of technology. The pastoralists' adaptability to climate change was enhanced with increasing age. Large and less-educated pastoralists had more adaptability compared to small and well-educated ones. Pastoralists who had jobs other than animal-husbandry and who participated in educational and extension courses on climate change had more adaptability to climate change. Pastoralists owning agricultural lands and local knowledge in dealing with climate change were also more adaptable to climate change. The results of the study can be used to strengthen pastoralists' adaptability to climate change to reduce their livelihood vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid39833242, year = {2025}, author = {Mede, NG and Cologna, V and Berger, S and Besley, J and Brick, C and Joubert, M and Maibach, EW and Mihelj, S and Oreskes, N and Schäfer, MS and van der Linden, S and Abdul Aziz, NI and Abdulsalam, S and Shamsi, NA and Aczel, B and Adinugroho, I and Alabrese, E and Aldoh, A and Alfano, M and Ali, IM and Alsobay, M and Altenmüller, M and Alvarez, RM and Amoako, R and Amollo, T and Ansah, P and Apriliawati, D and Azevedo, F and Bajrami, A and Bardhan, R and Bati, K and Bertsou, E and Betsch, C and Bhatiya, AY and Bhui, R and Białobrzeska, O and Bilewicz, M and Bouguettaya, A and Breeden, K and Bret, A and Buchel, O and Cabrera-Álvarez, P and Cagnoli, F and Valdez, AC and Callaghan, T and Cases, RK and Çoksan, S and Czarnek, G and De Peuter, S and Debnath, R and Delouvée, S and Di Stefano, L and Díaz-Catalán, C and Doell, KC and Dohle, S and Douglas, KM and Dries, C and Dubrov, D and Dzimińska, M and Ecker, UKH and Elbaek, CT and Elsherif, M and Enke, B and Etienne, TW and Facciani, M and Fage-Butler, A and Faisal, MZ and Fan, X and Farhart, C and Feldhaus, C and Ferreira, M and Feuerriegel, S and Fischer, H and Freundt, J and Friese, M and Fuglsang, S and Gallyamova, A and Garrido-Vásquez, P and Garrido Vásquez, ME and Gatua, W and Genschow, O and Ghasemi, O and Gkinopoulos, T and Gloor, JL and Goddard, E and Gollwitzer, M and González-Brambila, C and Gordon, H and Grigoryev, D and Grimshaw, GM and Guenther, L and Haarstad, H and Harari, D and Hawkins, LN and Hensel, P and Hernández-Mondragón, AC and Herziger, A and Huang, G and Huff, M and Hurley, M and Ibadildin, N and Ishibashi, M and Islam, MT and Jeddi, Y and Jin, T and Jones, CA and Jungkunz, S and Jurgiel, D and Kabdulkair, Z and Kao, JJ and Kavassalis, S and Kerr, JR and Kitsa, M and Klabíková Rábová, T and Klein, O and Koh, H and Koivula, A and Kojan, L and Komyaginskaya, E and König, L and Koppel, L and Cavalcante, KKN and Kosachenko, A and Kotcher, J and Kranz, LS and Krishnan, P and Kristiansen, S and Krouwel, A and Kuppens, T and Kyza, EA and Lamm, C and Lantian, A and Lazić, A and Lecuona, O and Légal, JB and Leviston, Z and Levy, N and Lindkvist, AM and Lits, G and Löschel, A and López-Ortega, A and Lopez-Villavicencio, C and Lou, NM and Lucas, CH and Lunz-Trujillo, K and Marques, MD and Mayer, SJ and McKay, R and Mercier, H and Metag, J and Milfont, TL and Miller, JM and Mitkidis, P and Monge-Rodríguez, F and Motta, M and Mudra, I and Muršič, Z and Namutebi, J and Newman, EJ and Nitschke, JP and Ntui, NV and Nwogwugwu, D and Ostermann, T and Otterbring, T and Palmer-Hague, J and Pantazi, M and Pärnamets, P and Parra Saiani, P and Paruzel-Czachura, M and Parzuchowski, M and Pavlov, YG and Pearson, AR and Penner, MA and Pennington, CR and Petkanopoulou, K and Petrović, MM and Pfänder, J and Pisareva, D and Ploszaj, A and Poliaková, K and Pronizius, E and Pypno-Blajda, K and Quiñones, DMA and Räsänen, P and Rauchfleisch, A and Rebitschek, FG and Refojo Seronero, C and Rêgo, G and Reynolds, JP and Roche, J and Rödder, S and Röer, JP and Ross, RM and Ruin, I and Santos, O and Santos, RR and Schmid, P and Schulreich, S and Scoggins, B and Sharaf, A and Sheria Nfundiko, J and Shuckburgh, E and Six, J and Solak, N and Späth, L and Spruyt, B and Standaert, O and Stanley, SK and Storms, G and Strahm, N and Syropoulos, S and Szaszi, B and Szumowska, E and Tanaka, M and Teran-Escobar, C and Todorova, B and Toko, AK and Tokrri, R and Toribio-Florez, D and Tsakiris, M and Tyrala, M and Uluğ, &#xd6;M and Uzoma, IC and van Noord, J and Varda, C and Verheyen, S and Vilares, I and Vlasceanu, M and von Bubnoff, A and Walker, I and Warwas, I and Weber, M and Weninger, T and Westfal, M and Wintterlin, F and Wojcik, AD and Xia, Z and Xie, J and Zegler-Poleska, E and Zenklusen, A and Zwaan, RA}, title = {Perceptions of science, science communication, and climate change attitudes in 68 countries - the TISP dataset.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {114}, pmid = {39833242}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {P500PS_202935//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; n/a//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; n/a//Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy, and Communications | Bundesamt f&#xfc;r Energie (Swiss Federal Office of Energy)/ ; n/a//Resnick Sustainability Institute for Science, Energy and Sustainability, California Institute of Technology (Resnick Institute)/ ; BE 3970/12-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation)/ ; RE 4752/1-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation)/ ; 458303980//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation)/ ; OPP1144//Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation)/ ; FWFI3381//Austrian Science Fund (Fonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung)/ ; 101018262//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council)/ ; AUFF-E-2019-9-13//Aarhus Universitets Forskningsfond (Aarhus University Research Foundation)/ ; AUFF-E-2019-9-13//Aarhus Universitets Forskningsfond (Aarhus University Research Foundation)/ ; AUFF-E-2019-9-4//Aarhus Universitets Forskningsfond (Aarhus University Research Foundation)/ ; n/a//Genome Canada (G&#xe9;nome Canada)/ ; n/a//F&#xe9;d&#xe9;ration Wallonie-Bruxelles (French Community of Belgium)/ ; n/a//Victoria University of Wellington/ ; 822166//European Commission (EC)/ ; #62631//John Templeton Foundation (JTF)/ ; #61580//John Templeton Foundation (JTF)/ ; #430-2022-00711//Gouvernement du Canada | Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (Conseil de recherches en sciences humaines du Canada)/ ; n/a//NOMIS Stiftung (NOMIS Foundation)/ ; n/a//NOMIS Stiftung (NOMIS Foundation)/ ; ANR-10-IDEX-0001-02//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; n/a//Agence Nationale de la Recherche (French National Research Agency)/ ; n/a//Trinity Western University (TWU)/ ; 2020-02584//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det (Swedish Research Council)/ ; n/a//Aston University (Aston)/ ; n/a//Aston University (Aston)/ ; n/a//Universit&#xe4;t Hamburg (University of Hamburg)/ ; 964728 (JITSUVAX)//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Science ; *Attitude ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Trust ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Communication ; Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {Science is integral to society because it can inform individual, government, corporate, and civil society decision-making on issues such as public health, new technologies or climate change. Yet, public distrust and populist sentiment challenge the relationship between science and society. To help researchers analyse the science-society nexus across different geographical and cultural contexts, we undertook a cross-sectional population survey resulting in a dataset of 71,922 participants in 68 countries. The data were collected between November 2022 and August 2023 as part of the global Many Labs study "Trust in Science and Science-Related Populism" (TISP). The questionnaire contained comprehensive measures for individuals' trust in scientists, science-related populist attitudes, perceptions of the role of science in society, science media use and communication behaviour, attitudes to climate change and support for environmental policies, personality traits, political and religious views and demographic characteristics. Here, we describe the dataset, survey materials and psychometric properties of key variables. We encourage researchers to use this unique dataset for global comparative analyses on public perceptions of science and its role in society and policy-making.}, }
@article {pmid39832550, year = {2025}, author = {Marinaccio, A and Gariazzo, C and Taiano, L and Bonafede, M and Martini, D and D'Amario, S and de'Donato, F and Morabito, M and , }, title = {Climate change and occupational health and safety. Risk of injuries, productivity loss and the co-benefits perspective.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {269}, number = {}, pages = {120844}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2025.120844}, pmid = {39832550}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a fundamental threat to human health and outdoor workers are one of the most vulnerable population subgroups. Increasing heat stress and heatwaves are directly associated with the health and safety of workers for a large spectrum of occupations. Heat stress negatively affects labour supply, productivity, and workability.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study are to estimate the risk of work-related injuries for extreme temperature outdoor exposure in Italy, to evaluate the loss in productivity and the associated insurance costs for supporting the co-benefits analysis of the adaptation measures.<br><br>METHODS: The relationship between air temperature and occupational injuries (in the period 2014-19) was evaluated using a time-series approach, by means of a specific over-dispersed Poisson generalized linear regression model, applied to compensation data. To assess the effect of temperature on workability, the wet bulb global temperature (WBGT) was estimated by different levels of humidity and vapor pressure. The costs of injuries have been estimated according to the potential consequences in terms of paid insurance premium and including all management and human resources costs.<br><br>RESULTS: We estimated 25,632 (95%CI 22,353-28,862) occupational injuries in Italy attributed to heat (between 75&#xb0; and 99&#xb0; percentiles) in the period 2014-2019, which corresponds to an average of 4272 cases for year. A decrease in productivity of about 6.5% was estimated for workers engaged in physical activities requiring high metabolic rates for every unit degree increase in temperature between 19.6&#xa0;C&#xb0; and 31.8&#xa0;C&#xb0;. The overall compensation costs associated to extreme heat exposure have been estimated to more than 292 million euros between 2014 and 2019, almost equal to 49 million euros per year.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Prevention measures and adaptation strategies for contrasting the occupational exposure to extreme temperatures can help contain both the risk of injury and, productivity loss, in a co-benefits perspective.}, }
@article {pmid39832424, year = {2025}, author = {Choudhary, R and Ahmad, F and Kaya, C and Upadhyay, SK and Muneer, S and Kumar, V and Meena, M and Liu, H and Upadhyaya, H and Seth, CS}, title = {Decrypting proteomics, transcriptomics, genomics, and integrated omics for augmenting the abiotic, biotic, and climate change stress resilience in plants.}, journal = {Journal of plant physiology}, volume = {305}, number = {}, pages = {154430}, doi = {10.1016/j.jplph.2025.154430}, pmid = {39832424}, issn = {1618-1328}, abstract = {As our planet faces increasing environmental challenges, such as biotic pressures, abiotic stressors, and climate change, it is crucial to understand the complex mechanisms that underlie stress responses in crop plants. Over past few years, the integration of techniques of proteomics, transcriptomics, and genomics like LC-MS, IT-MS, MALDI-MS, DIGE, ESTs, SAGE, WGS, GWAS, GBS, 2D-PAGE, CRISPR-Cas, cDNA-AFLP, HLS, HRPF, MPSS, CAGE, MAS, IEF, MudPIT, SRM/MRM, SWATH-MS, ESI have significantly enhanced our ability to comprehend the molecular pathways and regulatory networks, involved in balancing the ecosystem/ecology stress adaptation. This review offers thorough synopsis of the current research on utilizing these multi-omics methods (including metabolomics, ionomics) for battling abiotic (salinity, temperature (chilling/freezing/cold/heat), flood (hypoxia), drought, heavy metals/loids), biotic (pathogens like fungi, bacteria, virus, pests, and insects (aphids, caterpillars, moths, mites, nematodes) and climate change stress (ozone, ultraviolet radiation, green house gases, carbon dioxide). These strategies can expedite crop improvement, and act as powerful tools with high throughput and instant database generation rates. They also provide a platform for interpreting intricate, systematic signalling pathways and knowing how different environmental stimuli cause phenotypic responses at cellular and molecular level by changing the expression of stress-responsive genes like RAB18, KIN1, RD29B, OsCIPK03, OsSTL, SIAGL, bZIP, SnRK, ABF. This review discusses various case studies that exemplify the successful implementation of these omics tools to enhance stress tolerance in plants. Finally, it highlights challenges and future prospects of utilizing these approaches in combating stress, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary collaborations and bio-technological advancements for sustainable agriculture and food security.}, }
@article {pmid39832258, year = {2025}, author = {Zhang, L and Wang, P and Xie, G and Wang, W}, title = {Impact of climate change on the distribution of the citrus longhorned beetle Anoplophora chinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) and its host plants, Castanea mollissima and Castanea seguinii: a predictive analysis using optimized MaxEnt models.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toae308}, pmid = {39832258}, issn = {1938-291X}, support = {2024AFB254//Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province/ ; 31672327//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {The Anoplophora chinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) (Forster), a serious phytophagous pest threatening Castanea mollissima Blume and Castanea seguinii Dode, poses risks of ecological imbalance, significant economic loss, and increased management difficulties if not properly controlled. This study employs optimized MaxEnt models to analyze the potential distribution areas of A. chinensis and its host plants under current and future climate conditions, identifying their movement pathways and relative dynamics. Results indicate that all models achieved an average AUC value exceeding 0.86, demonstrating low complexity and high predictive accuracy. The key climatic variables influencing the geographic distribution of A. chinensis and its host plants include temperature and moisture-related bioclimatic variables such as mean diurnal range, minimum temp of coldest month, mean temp of wettest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, and precipitation seasonality. Under both current and future conditions, these 3 species are primarily distributed in the southwestern regions of China. Notably, the suitable growth area for all 3 species shows varying degrees of increase. Additionally, C. mollissima and C. seguinii exhibit a trend of eastward displacement in response to climate change. Overall, the findings provide significant practical value for the monitoring, early warning, and targeted control strategies for A. chinensis. Furthermore, these results offer a basis for timely conservation strategies to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39830708, year = {2025}, author = {Schiestl, FP and Wartmann, BA and Bänziger, R and Györög-Kobi, B and Hess, K and Luder, J and Merz, E and Peter, B and Reutlinger, M and Richter, T and Senn, H and Ulrich, T and Waldeck, B and Wartmann, C and Wüest, R and Wüest, W and Rusman, Q}, title = {The Late Orchid Catches the Bee: Frost Damage and Pollination Success in the Face of Global Warming in a European Terrestrial Orchid.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {e70729}, pmid = {39830708}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global warming changes flowering times of many plant species, with potential impacts on frost damage and their synchronization with pollinator activity. These effects can have severe impacts on plant fitness, yet we know little about how frequently they occur and the extent of damage they cause. We addressed this topic in a thermophilic orchid with a highly specific pollination mechanism, the Small Spider Orchid, Ophrys araneola RchB, in six populations in Northern Switzerland. We measured flowering time, frost damage, and fruiting success in 1250 individually marked plants during 3 years, and documented spring temperatures. Using regression models with historical climate data, we estimated past and future frost damage. In addition, we analyzed historical records of the orchid and its only verified pollinator, the solitary bee Andrena combinata in Northern Switzerland, to estimate potential desynchronization between flowering and pollinator activity due to climate change. Increased spring temperatures accelerated flowering time, and together with the number of frost days explained frost damage well. Frost damage was severe and early-flowering plants were more likely to be damaged. Historical climate data suggested frost damage has increased in the last decades and may increase further in the future. All populations but one had very low fruit set, and plants that flowered earlier were less likely to set fruit. The historical data from between 1970 and 2019 showed a significant advance of flowering- and pollinator occurrence time in the last decades, but to a similar degree in orchids and bees. Our study shows that the orchid, despite being limited to warm habitats in central Europe, suffers under global warming by increased frost damage caused by earlier flowering. We did not detect an effect of accelerated flowering on desynchronization in flowering time and pollinator activity in this orchid species.}, }
@article {pmid39830704, year = {2025}, author = {Duyar, A and Demir, MA and Kabalak, M}, title = {Prediction of Current and Future Distributions of Chalcophora detrita (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {e70693}, pmid = {39830704}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The consequences of climate change, accelerated by anthropogenic activities, have different effects on different ecosystems, and the severity of these effects is predicted to increase in the near future. The number of studies investigating how forest ecosystems respond to these changes is increasing. However, there remains a significant gap in research concerning how saproxylic organisms-one of the key contributors to the healthy functioning of these fragile ecosystems-will respond to the consequences of climate change. In our study, we estimated the suitable habitats of the polymorphic species Chalcophora detrita which is distributed across Italy, Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, Türkiye, Cyprus, Syria, Israel and Lebanon. This species of both saproxylic and economic importance, was modelled under current environmental conditions, climate change scenarios and possible future conditions by ecological niche modelling (ENM). An ensemble model was created by using 11 different algorithms (Artificial Neural Network, Classification Tree Analysis, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Flexible Discriminant Analysis, Generalised Additive Model, Generalised Boosting Model, Generalised Linear Model, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, Maximum Entropy, Random Forest, Surface Range Envelope) to predict the potential suitable habitats of C. detrita. Two different future scenarios (SSP2-4.5, relatively optimistic and SSP5-8.5, most pessimistic) are divided into 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100 time periods. The results of our ENM indicated that bioclimatic variables contribute more than topographic and land cover variables to suitable habitats for the species under current conditions. Furthermore, future scenarios demonstrated that suitable habitats for this species will gradually decrease across the geographical region where the species is distributed. This study provides a theoretical reference framework for the conservation of habitats and the improvement of management plans for species belonging to the genus Chalcophora Dejean 1833 and the other saproxylic beetles.}, }
@article {pmid39830681, year = {2025}, author = {Senande-Rivera, M and Insua-Costa, D and Miguez-Macho, G}, title = {Climate change aggravated wildfire behaviour in the Iberian Peninsula in recent years.}, journal = {NPJ climate and atmospheric science}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {19}, pmid = {39830681}, issn = {2397-3722}, abstract = {Climate change is considered to affect wildfire spread both by increasing fuel dryness and by altering vegetation mass and structure. However, the direct effect of global warming on wildfires is hard to quantify due to the multiple non-climatic factors involved in their ignition and spread. By combining wildfire observations with the latest generation of climate models, here we show that more than half of the large wildfires (area>500 ha) occurring in the Iberian Peninsula between 2001 and 2021 present a significant increase in the rate of spread with respect to what it would have been in the pre-industrial period, attributable to global warming. The average acceleration of the rate of spread due to increased fuel dryness is between 2.0% and 8.3%, whereas the influence of enhanced vegetation growth since the pre-industrial period could potentially be even higher than the direct impact of temperature increase in fuel conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39830619, year = {2025}, author = {McKenney, DW and Pedlar, JH and Lawrence, K and Sobie, SR and DeBoer, K and Brescacin, T}, title = {Spatial datasets of CMIP6 climate change projections for Canada and the United States.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {58}, number = {}, pages = {111246}, pmid = {39830619}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Geospatial climate change projections are critical for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations across a wide range of disciplines. Here we present monthly-based grids of climate change projections at a 2-km resolution covering Canada and the United States. These data products are based on outputs from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and include projections for 13 General Circulation Models (GCMs), three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, and SSP5 8.5), four 30-year time periods (2011-2040, 2021-2050, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100), and a suite of climate variables, including monthly maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, climate moisture index, and various bioclimatic summaries. The products employ a delta downscaling method, which combines historical normal values at climate stations with broad-scale change projections (or deltas) from GCMs, followed by spatial interpolation using ANUSPLIN. Various quality control efforts, described herein, were undertaken to ensure that the final products provided reasonable estimates of future climate.}, }
@article {pmid39830277, year = {2025}, author = {Laydon, DJ and Smith, DL and Chakradeo, K and Khurana, MP and Okiring, J and Duchene, DA and Bhatt, S}, title = {Climate Change and Malaria: A Call for Robust Analytics.}, journal = {medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1101/2024.09.16.24313623}, pmid = {39830277}, abstract = {Mosquito ecology and behavior and malaria parasite development display marked sensitivity to weather, in particular to temperature and precipitation. Therefore, climate change is expected to profoundly affect malaria epidemiology in its transmission, spatiotemporal distribution and consequent disease burden. However, malaria transmission is also complicated by other factors (e.g. urbanization, socioeconomic development, genetics, drug resistance) which together constitute a highly complex, dynamical system, where the influence of any single factor can be masked by others. In this study, we therefore aim to re-evaluate the evidence underlying the widespread belief that climate change will increase worldwide malaria transmission. We review two broad types of study that have contributed to this evidence-base: i) studies that project changes in transmission due to inferred relationships between environmental and mosquito entomology, and ii) regression-based studies that look for associations between environmental variables and malaria prevalence. We then employ a simple statistical model to show that environmental variables alone do not account for the observed spatiotemporal variation in malaria prevalence. Our review raises several concerns about the robustness of the analyses used for advocacy around climate change and malaria. We find that, while climate change's effect on malaria is highly plausible, empirical evidence is much less certain. Future research on climate change and malaria must become integrated into malaria control programs, and understood in context as one factor among many. Our work outlines gaps in modelling that we believe are priorities for future research.}, }
@article {pmid39830174, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, C and Nie, X and Xu, R and Han, G and Wang, D}, title = {Burden trends and future predictions for hypertensive heart disease attributable to non-optimal temperatures in the older adults amidst climate change, 1990-2021.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {1525357}, pmid = {39830174}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Male ; Female ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; *Hypertension/epidemiology ; Middle Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Global Burden of Disease/trends ; Bayes Theorem ; Forecasting ; Heart Diseases/epidemiology ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Cold Temperature/adverse effects ; Sex Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) is a significant form of end-organ damage caused by hypertension, with profound impacts on global health and quality of life. Temperature anomalies driven by climate change, particularly extremes of heat and cold, are increasingly recognized as major contributors to the cardiovascular disease burden, notably impacting HHD. However, the specific spatiotemporal trends and gender-based differences in the burden of non-optimal temperatures on older adults HHD patients remain insufficiently explored. This study aims to evaluate the regional, gender-specific trends in the burden of HHD attributed to non-optimal temperatures among the older adults from 1990 to 2021, and to project future trends in HHD burden under climate-induced temperature anomalies from 2022 to 2050.<br><br>METHODS: Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2021), which provides estimates of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) at global, regional, and national levels. Age-standardized rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were analyzed. Future burden projections were modeled using age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian APC models to assess temperature impact by gender and age differences. Data analysis was conducted using R and STATA, examining the variations in temperature effects by gender and age.<br><br>RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2021, cold-related HHD burden among the older adults significantly exceeded that of heat-related burden. However, heat-related HHD burden demonstrated a marked upward trend, projected to continue rising over the next two decades, particularly in low-income and tropical regions. Gender-specific analysis revealed that cold-related HHD burden was more pronounced in women, while heat-related burden was notably higher in men. Additionally, male heat-related HHD mortality rates have shown a substantial increase over the past 30&#x202f;years, whereas female rates have exhibited a comparatively modest decline.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Although cold remains the dominant non-optimal temperature factor, rising global temperatures suggest an increasing burden of heat-related HHD among the older adults. Efforts should prioritize strengthening resilience in vulnerable regions and populations, with targeted interventions to mitigate future health risks associated with temperature extremes.}, }
@article {pmid39829606, year = {2024}, author = {Amekpor, F and Sakariyau, W and Kengo, NE and Sandra, NA and Agyapong, J and Dauda, Z and Kwarteng, S and Adedokun, DA and Darko, G}, title = {Integrating Maternal and Child Health Into Climate Change: A Holistic Approach.}, journal = {Public health reviews}, volume = {45}, number = {}, pages = {1607553}, pmid = {39829606}, issn = {0301-0422}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: In everyday language, climate change is an increase in the Earth's average temperature. Climate change negatively affects life support systems, including air, food, water, shelter, and security, on which humans depend. This paper aims to holistically integrate maternal and child health into climate change.<br><br>METHODS: A narrative/literature review approach were adopted using papers sources from google scholar, research gate and web of science. About 10 papers was initially gathered and it was later scrutinized to 6.<br><br>RESULTS: It was discovered that, climate change negatively impacts food and water security, heat stress, extreme weather, and air pollution, with women and children most affected. The World Health Organization estimates 250,000 climate-related deaths annually by 2050, disproportionately affecting maternal and child health. Integrating climate and maternal health strategies could offer benefits, yet research on adapting to climate change's effects on pregnancy outcomes is limited.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Addressing maternal and child health requires integrating health-focused strategies into environmental policies to reduce vulnerabilities to climate-related risks. A comprehensive approach can enhance resilience by improving healthcare access, education, and sustainable resource management, benefiting public health and environmental outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid39829604, year = {2024}, author = {Traoré, O and Tetka, JB}, title = {The Health and Health Insurance Implications of Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Narrative Review.}, journal = {Public health reviews}, volume = {45}, number = {}, pages = {1607212}, pmid = {39829604}, issn = {0301-0422}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This paper aims to provide a narrative review of the implications of climate change on health and health insurance in sub-Saharan Africa.<br><br>METHODS: A comprehensive research was employed to carry out a complete narrative study on the subject. Thus, since September 2022 we searched for literature on the relationships between climate change, health, and health insurance on PubMed over an unbounded period. By updating the research method, the outputs cover the period 2009-2024.<br><br>RESULTS: Based on 19 key articles that focused on the implications of climate change for health and health insurance in sub-Saharan Africa, we highlight that climate change directly affects population health through climate-related disease. Indirectly, climate change affects health through its disruption of food availability and agriculture and through demographic shifts.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Finally, this narrative review suggests appropriate strategies to combat the health consequences of climate change and to improve universal health insurance systems.}, }
@article {pmid39824882, year = {2025}, author = {Okely, M and Chen, Z and Adly, E and Kamal, M}, title = {Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the invasive Asian longhorned tick, Haemaphysalis longicornis.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2266}, pmid = {39824882}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; *Ixodidae/physiology ; Europe ; Animal Distribution ; Haemaphysalis longicornis ; }, abstract = {The Asian long-horned tick, Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann, 1901, is the competent vector for severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV). Haemaphysalis longicornis originated mainly in eastern Asia and invaded many areas like Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific islands, and was recently introduced to eastern parts of the USA. This species is characterized by high adaptability to a wide range of temperatures and can reproduce parthenogenically under stressful conditions. Migratory birds are important hosts of H. longicornis and are thought to be responsible for its unexpected invasion and introduction into new areas worldwide. This study predicted the historical (near current) global environmental suitability and the possible shifts in environmental suitability for H. longicornis under the ongoing climate change between 2021 and 2100. The results demonstrated that Europe is at potential of high environmental suitability for H. longicornis invasion although this species has not been recorded in any regions of Europe yet. Our model also anticipated the environmental suitability for H. longicornis in eastern parts of the USA, although the recently recorded occurrences there were not used in the model calibration. Climate change is thought to affect and increase the range of suitable environments for H. longicornis. The different maps introduced in this study may help improve understanding of the global environmental suitability for this invasive disease vector and predict the areas at high environmental suitability for possible invasion to prioritize the control programs and enhance quarantine procedures in these areas.}, }
@article {pmid39824098, year = {2025}, author = {Kyire, SKC and Dhaka, SS and Bannor, RK and Asare, JK}, title = {Climate change and food security nexus in Ghana: The role of renewable energy.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {963}, number = {}, pages = {178454}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178454}, pmid = {39824098}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is aggravating hunger, which is miserable in Sub-Saharan African nations like Ghana. Yet evidence of the effect of climatic variables on hunger, particularly multidimensional food security, is less illuminated in Ghana. Moreover, the decoupling effect of renewable energy on emissions and food security is rare in the Ghanaian context. Therefore, we fill this gap using time series data from 1990 to 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag model was used to analyse the data, while the dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares were employed for robustness. Additionally, the seemingly unrelated regression was used to evaluate the effect of climate change on tomatoes, rice, cocoa, cashews, maize, cassava, and yam output. We discovered a long-run co-integration between climatic factors and food security. Moreover, rising temperatures worsen food security in the short run but eventually improve in the long run. Again, temperature improves the production of the studied crops. In the short term, precipitation disturbs food security but suddenly improves in the future. Similarly, rainfall increases the production of the studied crops. Moreover, CO2 stifles long-term food security and reduces rice production. However, renewable energy counteract the deleterious consequence of CO2 on food security in the future. Theoretically, the effect of climate change on food security follows the assumption of the Environmental Kuznets Curve to some extent in Ghana. Therefore, adopting irrigation, greenhouses, agricultural insurance, and improved crop varieties will help farmers manage the wrath of climate change. Also, policies like carbon credits, tax incentives for renewable energy, investment funds, and solar panel subsidies can further promote sustainability and climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid39823935, year = {2025}, author = {Cao, B and Bai, C and Wu, K and La, T and Chen, W and Liu, L and Zhou, X and Chen, C and Li, X and Su, Y and Che, L and Li, G}, title = {Ticks jump in a warmer world: Global distribution shifts of main pathogenic ticks are associated with future climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {374}, number = {}, pages = {124129}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124129}, pmid = {39823935}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {In recent decades, the threats of ticks and tick-borne diseases (TBDs) increased extensively with environmental change, urbanization, and rapidly changing interactions between human and animals. However, large-scale distribution of tick and TBD risks as well as their relationship with environmental change remain inadequately unclear. Here, we first proposed a "tick-pathogen-habitat-human" model to project the global potential distribution of main pathogenic ticks using a total of 70,714 occurrence records. Meanwhile, the effects of ecological factors and socio-economic factors driving the distribution pattern were evaluated. Based on this, the risk distribution of TBDs was projected by large-scale "tick-pathogen-disease" analysis. Furthermore, the distribution shifts of tick suitability were projected under different shared socio-economic pathways in the future. Our findings demonstrate that warm temperate countries (e.g., the United States, China and European countries) in the Northern Hemisphere represent significant high risk regions for ticks and TBDs. Specifically, solar radiation of January emerges as the main decisive factor determining the risk distribution pattern. Future shifts of tick suitability showed decrease trend under low greenhouse gas emission scenarios but increase trend under high scenarios. These suitability shifts were significantly correlated with future temperature- (9 species) and precipitation- (19 species) related factors. Collectively, in this study we first shaped the global risk distribution of main ticks and TBDs as well as tick suitability shifts correlated with future global climate change, which will provide helpful references for disease prevention and administration. The methods proposed here will also shed light on other emerging and recurrent zoonotic diseases (e.g., COVID-19, monkeypox) in the future.}, }
@article {pmid39822324, year = {2024}, author = {Mabile, L and Neufcourt, L and Chersich, M and Leroy, V and Delpierre, C and Kelly-Irving, M}, title = {On the need to better integrate the social environment in research on climate change and health: recommendations and thinking tools.}, journal = {Open research Europe}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {105}, pmid = {39822324}, issn = {2732-5121}, abstract = {Social inequality impacts health, is aggravated by the consequences of climate change, and may be influenced by inappropriate policy responses. These interdependent effects create a self-perpetuating loop exacerbating the impact of climate dysregulation on health in an uncontrolled and poorly understood way. Holistic approaches to public health such as One Health, EcoHealth or Planetary Health are well suited to tackling the considerable and complex environmental and social issues underlying climate dysregulation. However, the extent to which research using such frameworks investigates social determinants of health is not clear. In this paper we discuss the ways in which the social environment has so far been considered in the literature to problematize and analyze the relationship between climate dysregulation and health within holistic frameworks and provide tools and recommendations to facilitate their apprehension. Social factors are investigated empirically only in a minor fraction of studies addressing the relation between climate and health in holistic frameworks, and not systematically. Barriers to such approaches are discussed. This work also provides two analytical tools (a process diagram and a knowledge framework) and a set of recommendations to help include the social environment more meaningfully in such frameworks. They are meant to facilitate our understanding of the current status of this type of research and to encourage trans-disciplinary and trans-sectorial endeavors towards directions which need to be taken to ensure societal factors and inequalities are placed at the center of research on climate and health and the ensuing policy response.}, }
@article {pmid39822057, year = {2025}, author = {Çolak, M and Dogan, R and Dogan, S}, title = {Effect of Climate Change and Health Course on Global Warming Knowledge and Attitudes, Environmental Literacy, and Eco-Anxiety Level of Nursing Students: A Quasi-Experimental Study.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13536}, pmid = {39822057}, issn = {1525-1446}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is the most important problem that threatens the health of individuals, public health, and health systems on a global scale. The International Council of Nurses emphasizes that nurses should strive to reduce the effects of climate change and help individuals and systems adapt. In addition, it is stated that climate change should be integrated into nursing education curricula and nursing students, who are future healthcare providers, should be prepared to reduce the effects of climate change and promote a healthier environment.<br><br>AIM: The aim of this study is to examine the effect of the Climate Change and Health course on global warming knowledge and attitude, environmental literacy, and eco-anxiety levels in nursing students.<br><br>DESIGN AND METHODS: In this study, a pretest-posttest comparative quasi-experimental design type was used. The research was conducted with 117 students taking the "Climate Change and Health" course added to the curriculum at the Nursing Department of a private university in Istanbul between February 2023 and June 2023. Data were collected before and after the intervention using the Descriptive Characteristics Form, Global Warming Knowledge Questionnaire, Global Warming Attitude Scale, Environmental Literacy Scale for Adults, and Eco-Anxiety Scale.<br><br>RESULTS: After taking the Climate Change and Health course, nursing students' global warming knowledge and attitude total scores increased, and a statistically significant increase was detected in the eco anxiety total and behavioral symptoms subscale mean scores. There was no statistically significant change in the Environmental Literacy Scale total and subscale mean scores.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: It can be stated that the Climate Change and Health course positively improved nursing students' knowledge and attitudes toward global warming and increased their sensitivity about climate change. Nurses, who constitute the most important part of the healthcare workforce worldwide, have an important role in creating a healthy and safe environment and in combating the effects of global warming and climate change. For this reason, in order to train knowledgeable and equipped health professionals on this subject, it is recommended that courses on the effects of climate change, adaptation, and coping with it be added to the nursing curriculum and integrated into all subjects every year to ensure continuity.}, }
@article {pmid39821534, year = {2025}, author = {Jan, A and Arismendi, I and Giannico, G}, title = {Double Trouble for Native Species Under Climate Change: Habitat Loss and Increased Environmental Overlap With Non-Native Species.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {e70040}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.70040}, pmid = {39821534}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; *Ecosystem ; Esocidae/physiology ; Trout/physiology ; Bass/physiology ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Climate change and biological invasions are affecting natural ecosystems globally. The effects of these stressors on native species' biogeography have been studied separately, but their combined effects remain overlooked. Here, we develop a framework to assess how climate change influences both the range and niche overlap of native and non-native species using ecological niche models. We hypothesize that species with similar niches will experience both range reductions and increased niche overlap under future climates. We evaluate this using the ongoing invasion of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) and northern pike (Esox lucius) on the native habitats of redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in western North America. Future climate conditions will reduce habitat suitability for native and non-native species, but an increased niche overlap might exacerbate negative effects on native fishes. Our framework offers a tool to predict potential species distribution and interactions under climate change, informing adaptive management globally.}, }
@article {pmid39820799, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, P and Yang, M and Zhao, H and Wei, D and Zhang, G and Jiang, H and Zhang, C and Xian, X and Huang, H and Zhang, Y}, title = {Global Potential Geographic Distribution of Anthonomus eugenii Under Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis Based on an Ensemble Modeling Approach.}, journal = {Neotropical entomology}, volume = {54}, number = {1}, pages = {25}, pmid = {39820799}, issn = {1678-8052}, support = {2023YFC2605200//Yibo Zhang/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Animal Distribution ; Introduced Species ; Hymenoptera ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Climate warming is affecting the ranges and population dynamics of invasive species, including insects, which have become a global problem, causing biodiversity declines and agricultural economic losses. Anthonomus eugenii as an important invasive pest on pepper is now mainly located in the USA and Mexico. However, the global potential geographic distribution (PGD) of A. eugenii with climate change remains unknown, which makes it difficult to monitor and control. In this study, based on the global distribution areas and important environmental variables, we constructed an ensemble model to predict the global PGD of A. eugenii under the current climate and three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in the 2030s and 2050s. The mean true skill statistics (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the EM were 0.825 and 0.988, respectively, indicating that the EM was reliable. The mean temperature of the driest (bio9) and wettest (bio8) quarter and precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19) were the most important environmental variables affecting the PGD of A. eugenii. Under the current climate, the PGD of A. eugenii was mainly concentrated in southern North America and central South America. The suitable areas of A. eugenii could increase significantly, reaching the maximum under SSP5-8.5 in the 2030s, approximately 1911.7 × 10[4] km2. Moreover, the distribution centroid would shift to higher latitudes with global warming. It also had the potential invasion risk in Russia, China, the Republic of the Congo, and Romania, which should enhance quarantine control and early warning.}, }
@article {pmid39819834, year = {2025}, author = {Butler, CD}, title = {Eco-anxiety, climate change and the 'bottom billion': a plea for better understanding.}, journal = {BMJ mental health}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjment-2024-301380}, pmid = {39819834}, issn = {2755-9734}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Anxiety/psychology ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses enormous, rapidly increasing risks to human well-being that remain poorly appreciated. The growing understanding of this threat has generated a phenomenon often called 'eco-anxiety'. Eco-anxiety (and its synonyms) is best documented in the Global North, mostly among people who are better educated and whose reasons for concern are both altruistic and self-interested. However, the populations who are most vulnerable to climate change are disproportionately poor and live in the Global South, where evidence for eco-anxiety (or climate) anxiety is limited, especially among those who have been called the 'bottom billion', approximately the global population's poorest decile. Here, I postulate reasons for this research gap as both ethical and practical. Additionally, the bottom billion experience many disadvantages, some of which plausibly lower their recognition of anthropogenic climate change. These disadvantages include nutritional and health factors that can reduce learning capacity, even if access to formal education exists. Many in this population have limited or no electronic access to information. Furthermore, the relationship between the stresses faced by such populations and climate change is often indirect, potentially also disguising recognition of the role of climate change. The world is characterised by many distressing forms of inequality, one of which is the effective 'invisibilisation' of the bottom billion. This group faces many challenges; some of these may exceed climate change as rational causes for anxiety. However, it is here argued that policy makers should act on their behalf, irrespective of evidence that they experience eco-anxiety.}, }
@article {pmid39819248, year = {2025}, author = {Gezgin Yazıcı, H and Ökten, &#xc7; and Utaş Akhan, L}, title = {Climate change anxiety and sleep problems in the older adults.}, journal = {Aging &amp; mental health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-5}, doi = {10.1080/13607863.2025.2452937}, pmid = {39819248}, issn = {1364-6915}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Climate change has an impact on the prevalence of insufficient sleep and sleep disorders. This study aimed to examine climate change anxiety and sleep problems in older adults individuals.<br><br>METHOD: This descriptive and cross-sectional study was carried out with 664 participants between July 9 and September 10, 2024. A Personal Information Form, the Climate Change Anxiety Scale, and the Insomnia Severity Index were used for data collection. In the data analysis, independent samples t-test and one-way analysis of variance were used to compare demographic variables with the climate change anxiety scale and insomnia severity index.<br><br>RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 71.49&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;6.21&#x2009;years and more than half of the participants were female (54.4%). The mean score of the participants on the Climate Change Anxiety Scale was 1.68&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;0.80 and their mean score on the Insomnia Severity Index was 12.56&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;6.91. There was a positive correlation between the Climate Change Anxiety Scale and the Insomnia Severity Index (r&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.26, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.00). The insomnia variable explained 7% of the change in the Climate Change Anxiety score (R[2] = 0.07, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.00).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Older adults experience anxiety and sleep problems regarding climate change and sleep problems in older adults increase as climate change anxiety increases.}, }
@article {pmid39822389, year = {2023}, author = {Gebre, GG and Amekawa, Y and Fikadu, AA and Rahut, DB}, title = {Do climate change adaptation strategies improve farmers' food security in Tanzania?.}, journal = {Food security}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {629-647}, pmid = {39822389}, issn = {1876-4517}, abstract = {The damaging effects of changing climate on farm-household food security are steadily increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. Adaptation strategies are important for agrarian households to reduce the adverse effects on their food security. This study employed multivariate probit and endogenous switching regression models to analyze the determinants of farm households' choice of climate-change adaptation strategies, such as the cultivation of early maturing crops, early planting, growing drought-tolerant maize varieties, using precautionary savings, practicing income diversification, and sale of assets, and their effects on household food security in Tanzania. Information on expected rainfall and temperatures, early warning systems, previous droughts, delays in the onset of the rainy season, sex and age of the farmer, educational level, farming experience, family size, total farmland holding, number of livestock owned, contact with extension agents, and access to credit services were all found to influence decisions by farm households to use strategies of adaptation to climate change. Overall, the adaptation of farm households to climate change increased their food security status. An analysis of "adapter" and "non-adapter" farm households showed that the effect of adaptation on food security was smaller for households that adapted than for households that did not. Thus, we recommend that further effective adaptation strategies such as planting drought-resistant crops, changing planting dates, planting early maturing crops, and practicing income diversification be developed and used, particularly for the most vulnerable farm households, to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on their food security.}, }
@article {pmid39818907, year = {2025}, author = {Wild, KH and Huey, RB and Pianka, ER and Clusella-Trullas, S and Gilbert, AL and Miles, DB and Kearney, MR}, title = {Climate change and the cost-of-living squeeze in desert lizards.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {387}, number = {6731}, pages = {303-309}, doi = {10.1126/science.adq4372}, pmid = {39818907}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Lizards/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Australia ; *Desert Climate ; *Energy Metabolism ; Africa ; Feeding Behavior ; }, abstract = {Climate warming can induce a cost-of-living "squeeze" in ectotherms by increasing energetic expenditures while reducing foraging gains. We used biophysical models (validated by 2685 field observations) to test this hypothesis for 10 ecologically diverse lizards in African and Australian deserts. Historical warming (1950-2020) has been more intense in Africa than in Australia, translating to an energetic squeeze for African diurnal species. Although no net impact on Australian diurnal species was observed, warming generated an energetic "relief" (by increasing foraging time) for nocturnal species. Future warming impacts will be more severe in Africa than in Australia, requiring increased rates of food intake (+10% per hour active for diurnal species). The effects of climate warming on desert lizard energy budgets will thus be species-specific but potentially predictable.}, }
@article {pmid39816450, year = {2025}, author = {Luo, C and He, B and Wu, Y and Xue, Y and Deng, H and Li, S and Dong, X and Lu, L}, title = {Rethinking Conservation and Restoration Strategies of Endangered and Key Medicinal Clavicarpa Plants in Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau's Karst Areas Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {e70790}, pmid = {39816450}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The Clavicarpa species, valued for their pharmaceutical, ornamental, and economic importance, exhibit notable rarity and endemism in the Karst areas of the Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau in China. These species face significant threats from habitat loss and fragmentation, leading to a decline in biodiversity. To mitigate these threats, the Maxent algorithm was employed to analyze current and future distribution patterns, with a particular focus on the influence of climate variables in predicting potential distribution shifts and assessing extinction risks under the optimistic SSP1-2.6 and the pessimistic SSP5-8.5 socioeconomic scenarios. The EC-Earth3-Veg, MRI-ESM2-0, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR models were utilized for conservation status assessment and project future distributions for four time periods: the present, 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s. The minimum temperature during the coldest month (Bio 6) was identified as the most critical environmental factor, influencing both habitat contraction and expansion. Our modeling indicates that regions such as South, Central, and East China, particularly areas east of the Aihui-Tengchong line and south of the Yangtze River, exhibit the highest suitability for Clavicarpa species within the geographical coordinates of 18° N-45° N and 97° E-120° E. Conversely, climate change projections suggest a habitat expansion for Impatiens claviger, Impatiens tubulosa, Impatiens pritzelii, and Impatiens apalophylla, while Impatiens guizhouensis and Impatiens wilsonii face increased extinction risks. Specifically, I. claviger, I. tubulosa, and I. apalophylla are expected to shift northward, necessitating potential relocation to southern regions, while I. guizhouensis and I. wilsonii are projected to experience habitat losses of over 23.94% and 9.13%, respectively. Our research provides a robust scientific foundation for the conservation and sustainable utilization of these important pharmaceutical species and offers a framework for effective biodiversity management. We recommend using protected areas as a basis for the future conservation, breeding, cultivation, and utilization of Clavicarpa species.}, }
@article {pmid39815938, year = {2025}, author = {Hereme, R and Galleguillos, C and Molina-Montenegro, MA}, title = {Climate change and epigenetics: Unraveling the role of methylation in response to thermal instability in the Antarctic plant Colobanthus quitensis.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {177}, number = {1}, pages = {e70043}, doi = {10.1111/ppl.70043}, pmid = {39815938}, issn = {1399-3054}, support = {21180714//ANID (doctoral scholarship)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Epigenesis, Genetic ; *DNA Methylation/genetics ; Antarctic Regions ; *Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; Acclimatization/genetics ; Cold Temperature ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Low temperatures are one of the critical conditions affecting the performance and distribution of plants. Exposure to cooling results in the reprogramming of gene expression, which in turn would be mediated by epigenetic regulation. Antarctica is known as one of the most severe ecosystems, but several climate models predict an increase in average temperature, which may positively impact the development of Antarctic plants; however, under warmer temperatures, plants' vulnerability to damages from low-temperature events increases. Here, we evaluated the impact of these events on the acclimation process, with a focus on how methylation influences the induction of cold response genes. According to the results, an increase in the number of methylations in the promoter regions is associated with lower expression of these genes. Similarly, in populations where this relationship is observed, individuals acclimated to the projected climate change condition are more vulnerable, as their average temperature is lower in the face of a cold event compared to individuals acclimated to the current antarctic condition. This research is the first report highlighting the role of methylation in response to cold and its influence on the transcriptional responses of the antarctic plant Colobanthus quitensis facing climate change projections.}, }
@article {pmid39814748, year = {2025}, author = {Machard, A and Salvati, A and P Tootkaboni, M and Gaur, A and Zou, J and Wang, LL and Baba, F and Ge, H and Bre, F and Bozonnet, E and Corrado, V and Luo, X and Levinson, R and Lee, SH and Hong, T and Salles Olinger, M and Machado, RMES and da Guarda, ELA and Veiga, RK and Lamberts, R and Afshari, A and Ramon, D and Ngoc Dung Ngo, H and Sengupta, A and Breesch, H and Heijmans, N and Deltour, J and Kuborn, X and Sayadi, S and Qian, B and Zhang, C and Rahif, R and Attia, S and Stern, P and Holzer, P}, title = {Author Correction: Typical and extreme weather datasets for studying the resilience of buildings to climate change and heatwaves.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {83}, doi = {10.1038/s41597-025-04420-2}, pmid = {39814748}, issn = {2052-4463}, }
@article {pmid39813559, year = {2025}, author = {Oliveira, LD and Ibañez, P}, title = {Geopolitics, climate change and health: what can we expect from the G20 Summit (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2024)?.}, journal = {Cadernos de saude publica}, volume = {40}, number = {11}, pages = {e00068524}, pmid = {39813559}, issn = {1678-4464}, }
@article {pmid39813351, year = {2025}, author = {Warken, SF and Schmitt, AK and Scholz, D and Hertwig, A and Weber, M and Mertz-Kraus, R and Reinig, F and Esper, J and Sigl, M}, title = {Discovery of Laacher See eruption in speleothem record synchronizes Greenland and central European Late Glacial climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {eadt4057}, pmid = {39813351}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {To assess the impact of ongoing, historically unprecedented Arctic ice melting, precisely synchronized chronologies are indispensable for past analogs of abrupt climate change. Around 12,900 years before present (B.P.), the Atlantic-European realm experienced an abrupt relapse to near-glacial climate conditions attributed to Arctic meltwater fluxes, the Younger Dryas. However, it remained unclear how fast this climatic change propagated southward into Europe as terrestrial and ice-core chronologies are not sufficiently synchronized. Here, we use a volcanic sulfur spike identified in a speleothem from Germany to link the Laacher See eruption (LSE), a key chronostratigraphic marker in European terrestrial archives, to a previously unidentified sulfate spike in the Greenland ice-core record. The LSE, dated to 13,008 ± 8 years B.P.1950, thus synchronizes radiometric and ice-core calendars back in time, which consistently demonstrates that the LSE predates the onset of the Younger Dryas cooling by about 150 years, both in Greenland and Europe.}, }
@article {pmid39811748, year = {2025}, author = {Srivastava, S and Mehta, R and Mohanty, A and Satapathy, P and Sah, R and Apostoloopoulos, V}, title = {Climate change impacts and pandemics.}, journal = {New microbes and new infections}, volume = {63}, number = {}, pages = {101556}, pmid = {39811748}, issn = {2052-2975}, }
@article {pmid39811341, year = {2025}, author = {Ricart, S and Gandolfi, C and Castelletti, A}, title = {What drives farmers' behavior under climate change? Decoding risk awareness, perceived impacts, and adaptive capacity in northern Italy.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {e41328}, pmid = {39811341}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Understanding climate change in a precise and timely manner may assist in gauging the occurrence and seriousness of its impacts, thereby boosting the adaptive capacity and responsiveness of farmers. This investigation looks into farmers' knowledge of climate change, their perception of risks and impacts, and the strategies they anticipate to tackle the challenges of adaptation. A well-structured online survey covering risk awareness, perception, and adaptation was used to randomly sample 460 respondents from 12 irrigation districts in northern Italy. Descriptive and multivariate statistics, including structural equation modeling, were employed to outline the profiles of farmers, explore the drivers shaping their behavior, and disentangle the magnitude and direction underpinning their adaptive capacity. Findings revealed that farmers recognize changes in climate and perceive its variability and effects, such as rising temperatures, extreme heat events, and irregular precipitation. Farmers blend adaptive measures, including climate services and insurance, with preventive mechanisms like reducing fertilizer use, rotating and diversifying crops, and introducing soil conservation techniques. However, they encounter obstacles such as poor government assistance, expensive investments and overlay intricate regulations. Regarding decision-making processes, the structural model demonstrated that 1) recognizing climate change can sensibly predict alterations in farmers' behavior concerning climate impacts while 2) there is a lack of correlation between perceiving risks and implementing risk adaptation measures. Interestingly, factors such as farming experience, farm size, area under irrigation, and primary crop type significantly influence how risks are perceived and what measures are adopted. In light of these results, we offer guidance for upcoming research.}, }
@article {pmid39811806, year = {2024}, author = {Zu, K and Chen, F and Li, Y and Shrestha, N and Fang, X and Ahmad, S and Nabi, G and Wang, Z}, title = {Climate change impacts flowering phenology in Gongga Mountains, Southwest China.}, journal = {Plant diversity}, volume = {46}, number = {6}, pages = {774-782}, pmid = {39811806}, issn = {2468-2659}, abstract = {Flowering phenology of plants, which is important for reproductive growth, has been shown to be influenced by climate change. Understanding how flowering phenology responds to climate change and exploring the variation of this response across plant groups can help predict structural and functional changes in plant communities in response to ongoing climate change. Here, we used long-term collections of 33 flowering plant species from the Gongga Mountains (Mt. Gongga hereafter), a biodiversity hotspot, to investigate how plant flowering phenology changed over the past 70 years in response to climate change. We found that mean flowering times in Mt. Gongga were delayed in all vegetation types and elevations over the last 70 years. Furthermore, flowering time was delayed more in lowlands than at high elevations. Interestingly, we observed that spring-flowering plants show earlier flowering times whereas summer/autumn plants show delayed flowering times. Non-synchronous flowering phenology across species was mainly driven by changes in temperature and precipitation. We also found that the flowering phenology of 78.8% plant species was delayed in response to warming temperatures. Our findings also indicate that the magnitude and direction of variation in plant flowering times vary significantly among species along elevation gradients. Shifts in flowering time might cause trophic mismatches with co-occurring and related species, affecting both forest ecosystem structure and function.}, }
@article {pmid39811047, year = {2025}, author = {Hassan, S and Philippe, C and West, RM and McFarlane, S and Polson-Edwards, K and Gordon-Strachan, G and Hospedales, CJ and Dubrow, R and Allen, CF}, title = {Development of an agenda for research and action on climate change and health in the Caribbean.}, journal = {Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health}, volume = {49}, number = {}, pages = {e4}, pmid = {39811047}, issn = {1680-5348}, abstract = {This paper delineates the development of the Caribbean Research for Action Agenda which aims to empower Caribbean Small Island Developing States to reduce their vulnerabilities to the effects of climate change on health. The Caribbean Research for Action Agenda emerged from collaboration between nongovernmental organizations, academic institutions, and multilateral agencies that organized a conference on climate change and health in the Caribbean. This Agenda was formulated by prioritizing research areas, synthesizing evidence from conference presentations and scientific literature, and holding consultations with stakeholders and experts. The Agenda provides information on 18 priority areas for research and action categorized into four domains: climate change health impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; and resources and engagement for climate change and health action. Cross-cutting findings underscore the need for: greater public and professional awareness; a more climate-literate health workforce; interdisciplinary collaboration to address institutional silos; attention to social and economic mediating factors; equitable interventions for vulnerable groups; and enhanced monitoring and surveillance of climate-sensitive health outcomes. The Caribbean Research for Action Agenda is a foundational tool to inform research, guide multisectoral collaboration and capacity-building, develop evidence-based policy, and inspire community action-based advocacy related to climate change and health.}, }
@article {pmid39809529, year = {2025}, author = {Murray, KA}, title = {Keep it in the ground: climate change could prompt the reemergence of zombie pathogens.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {388}, number = {}, pages = {r46}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.r46}, pmid = {39809529}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid39807518, year = {2025}, author = {Astuti, PK and Sárkány, P and Wanjala, G and Bagi, Z and Kusza, S}, title = {A systematic review on the trend of transcriptomic study in livestock: An effort to unwind the complexity of adaptation in a climate change environment.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {e41090}, pmid = {39807518}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Heat stress has been proven to cause negative effects on livestock leading to lower productivity and economic value. Understanding how heat stress manifests within an animal's body is the first step in devising a heat stress mitigation strategy; transcriptomic studies are one of the methods used. Here, using a systematic literature review methodology, we examine the recent decade of transcriptomics' application to the study of livestock adaptation. We identified 152 studies that met our criteria for using transcriptome methods to heat stress adaptation and were published within the last ten years. Our analysis demonstrates the growing popularity and application of transcriptome approaches in the investigation of the response of ruminants, pigs, and poultry livestock to heat stress. Majority of the works was done in chicken and cattle using multiple organs as the sample, with qRT-PCR as the most employed technique. It has been established that a variety of biomarkers can be used to assess animals under heat stress, such as the HSPs, ILs, and TLRs. Although transcriptomics has lately been employed extensively to uncover the mechanism of heat adaptation, this adaptive feature's complex mechanism remains unclear, leaving many knowledge gaps for investigation. A more complex studies involving more various cell types, organs, or even model organisms using multi-omics approach could be the future research direction in understanding the heat stress effects on livestock better.}, }
@article {pmid39807422, year = {2025}, author = {Kaplan, WA and Hamer, DH and Shioda, K}, title = {The potential impact of climate change on medication access and quality deserves far more attention.}, journal = {One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {20}, number = {}, pages = {100957}, pmid = {39807422}, issn = {2352-7714}, abstract = {Notwithstanding the obvious interconnection between humans and the world that they share with non-human inhabitants, the impact of our changing climate on certain aspects of the public health ecosystem has been under-investigated. We briefly describe some of the possible climate-induced changes in the procurement, distribution, access and use of medications, including those for animals generally and livestock specifically. A fuller understanding of the effect of climate change on medicine supply, access, use and quality, including how these affect antimicrobial resistance, would contribute to the further development of the "One Health" and "One Health Systems" concepts. We suggest that this understanding is not yet available, even though the changing incidence of infectious diseases due to changing climate has been studied. There is a need for improved understanding of the impact of extremes of humidity and heat on medication quality and research into heat-stable medicines as well as strategies for the improving resilience of the pharmaceutical supply and distribution system in complex public health emergencies caused by aberrant weather patterns.}, }
@article {pmid39805829, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, J and Kim, H and Hashizume, M and Lee, W and Honda, Y and Kim, SE and He, C and Kan, H and Chen, R}, title = {Nonlinear exposure-response associations of daytime, nighttime, and day-night compound heatwaves with mortality amid climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {635}, pmid = {39805829}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {82430105//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Cities/epidemiology ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality ; Middle Aged ; Mortality ; Aged ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Adolescent ; Child ; }, abstract = {Heatwaves are commonly simplified as binary variables in epidemiological studies, limiting the understanding of heatwave-mortality associations. Here we conduct a multi-country study across 28 East Asian cities that employed the Cumulative Excess Heatwave Index (CEHWI), which represents excess heat accumulation during heatwaves, to explore the potentially nonlinear associations of daytime-only, nighttime-only, and day-night compound heatwaves with mortality from 1981 to 2010. Populations exhibited high adaptability to daytime-only and nighttime-only heatwaves, with non-accidental mortality risks increasing only at higher CEHWI levels (75th-90th percentiles). In contrast, compound heatwaves posed a super-linear increase in mortality risks after the 25th percentile of CEHWI. Associations of heatwaves with cardiovascular mortality mirrored those with non-accidental mortality but were more pronounced at higher CEHWI levels, while significant associations with respiratory mortality emerged at low-to-moderate CEHWI levels. These results highlight the necessity of considering the nonlinear health responses to heatwaves of different types in disease burden assessments and heatwave-health warning systems amid climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39805158, year = {2025}, author = {Towsif Khan, S and Sample, DJ and Wynn-Thompson, T and Butcher, J}, title = {Impacts of climate change on storm event-based flow regime and channel stability of urban headwater streams.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {374}, number = {}, pages = {123994}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123994}, pmid = {39805158}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Due to the recent improved availability of global and regional climate change (CC) models and associated data, the projected impact of CC on urban stormwater management is well documented. However, most studies are based on simplified design storm analysis and unit-area runoff models; evaluations of the long-term, continuous hydrologic response of extensive stormwater control measures (SCM) implementation under future CC scenarios are limited. Moreover, channel stability in response to CC is seldom evaluated due to the input data required to develop a long-term, continuous sediment transport model. The study objective was to evaluate the impact of CC on storm event-based flow regimes and channel stability in a small, urbanized catchment (0.9 km[2]) in Montgomery County, Maryland, USA. This study employed a previously developed sequential, hierarchical modeling approach, integrating a watershed-scale Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) with the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) to achieve the study goal. Ensemble modeling results indicate that conclusions related to impacts on SCM performance drawn from simplified, unit area models are not supported by findings from dynamic, continuous simulations that consider the complexities of real urban catchments and SCM interactions. Despite a general decrease in the total rainfall amount of individual storm events for most storm events, there is a noted increase in intensity for nearly all future storm events compared to current climatic conditions. This change in storm event-based rainfall pattern is expected to drive the catchment-scale hydrology to a flashier regime in the future, which in turn is expected to increase the extent of channel erosion compared to the current climate condition. A multicriteria design approach considering the interplay of multiple SCMs and local sediment transport capacity is thus necessary to ensure channel stability under changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid39804543, year = {2025}, author = {Rinke, K and Mi, C and Magee, MR and Carey, CC}, title = {Increasing exposure to global climate change and hopes for the era of climate adaptation: An aquatic perspective.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39804543}, issn = {1654-7209}, }
@article {pmid39803196, year = {2025}, author = {Meza-Joya, FL and Morgan-Richards, M and Trewick, SA}, title = {Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global Warming.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {e70810}, pmid = {39803196}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Anthropogenic planetary heating is disrupting global alpine systems, but our ability to empirically measure and predict responses in alpine species distributions is impaired by a lack of comprehensive data and technical limitations. We conducted a comprehensive, semi-quantitative review of empirical studies on contemporary range shifts in alpine insects driven by climate heating, drawing attention to methodological issues and potential biotic and abiotic factors influencing variation in responses. We highlight case studies showing how range dynamics may affect standing genetic variation and adaptive potential, and discuss how data integration frameworks can improve forecasts. Although biotic and abiotic factors influence individual species responses, most alpine insects studied so far are shifting to higher elevations. Upslope shifts are often accompanied by range contractions that are expected to diminish species genetic variation and adaptive potential, increasing extinction risk. Endemic species on islands are predicted to be especially vulnerable. Inferences drawn from the responses of alpine insects, also have relevance to species in other montane habitats. Correlative niche modelling is a keystone tool to predict range responses to planetary heating, but its limited ability to consider biological processes underpinning species' responses complicates interpretation. Alpine insects exhibit some potential to respond to rising temperatures via genetic change or phenotypic plasticity. Thus, future efforts should incorporate biological processes by using flexible hybrid niche modelling approaches to enhance the biological realism of predictions. Boosting scientific capability to envisage the future of alpine environments and their associated biota is imperative given that the speed and intensity of heating on high-mountain ecosystems can surpass our ability to collect the empirical data required to guide effective conservation planning and management decisions.}, }
@article {pmid39802069, year = {2024}, author = {Conn, DB and Soares Magalhães, RJ}, title = {Climate change: A health emergency for humans, animals, and the environment.}, journal = {One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {19}, number = {}, pages = {100867}, pmid = {39802069}, issn = {2352-7714}, }
@article {pmid39801573, year = {2024}, author = {Akello, W}, title = {Climate Change and Veterinary Medicine: A Call to Action for a Healthier Planet.}, journal = {F1000Research}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1360}, pmid = {39801573}, issn = {2046-1402}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; Humans ; *Veterinary Medicine ; Zoonoses/prevention &amp; control/epidemiology ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is rapidly transforming ecosystems and reshaping the landscapes of animal health, with profound consequences for public health, food security, and biodiversity. Rising temperatures, shifting weather patterns, and increased frequency of natural disasters are driving the emergence and spread of infectious diseases, particularly zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. These environmental shifts endanger the health and welfare of animals and the delicate balance between human populations, livestock, and wildlife. As the stewards of animal health, veterinarians are uniquely positioned to lead the change in addressing these complex challenges at the nexus of human, animal, and environmental health and well-being. This article calls for urgent actions to integrate climate adaptation and mitigation strategies into veterinary practice and education. It underscores the critical need for veterinarians to embrace the One Health approach to tackle climate-driven disease outbreaks and the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance to safeguard human and animal populations while protecting natural ecosystems. The article further explores the role of veterinarians in fostering sustainable agricultural practices, reducing the environmental impact of livestock production, conserving biodiversity and advocating for policy reforms that protect both animal and planetary health. As we face an era of unprecedented climate disruption, this call to action aims to inspire the global veterinary community to actively get involved in combating climate change and its worst impacts. By building climate-resilient practices, enhancing disease surveillance, and championing environmental stewardship, veterinarians can contribute significantly to a healthier, more sustainable future for all species on Earth.}, }
@article {pmid39800841, year = {2025}, author = {Chen, JH and Yu, RT}, title = {Assessing the distribution pattern of Saussurea medusa under climate change using an optimized MaxEnt model in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {2}, pages = {165}, pmid = {39800841}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Saussurea ; *Ecosystem ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; China ; Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Saussurea medusa is a rare alpine plant with significant medicinal value. To better understand the changes in its habitat in the context of climate change, this study used an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the current and future habitat of S. medusa under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) across three time periods (current, mid-century, and end-century) based on three climate system models. The results showed that the suitable habitat of S. medusa is mainly located in the southern and eastern parts of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP), exhibiting a fragmented distribution pattern. The future suitable area of S. medusa is projected to decrease significantly by 42.5% to 96.7%, accompanied by a southward shift in its centroid and an upward shift in altitude. The study found that the highest temperature in the warmest month is the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of S. medusa. This species is highly sensitive to climate change and requires urgent protection measures. Priority should focus on strengthening habitat protection in the southeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, where some stable habitats remain outside protected areas. Expanding population monitoring, promoting ex-situ conservation, enhancing public education, and encouraging community involvement are essential. Additionally, as a medicinal plant, alternative strategies are needed to curb overharvesting of wild resources.}, }
@article {pmid39799646, year = {2025}, author = {Huang, W and Chen, J and Yang, E and Meng, L and Feng, Y and Chen, Y and Huang, Z and Tan, R and Xiao, Z and Zhou, Y and Xu, M and Yu, K}, title = {Heat-tolerant subtropical Porites lutea may be better adapted to future climate change than tropical one in the South China Sea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {962}, number = {}, pages = {178381}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178381}, pmid = {39799646}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Coral reefs are degrading at an accelerating rate owing to climate change. Understanding the heat stress tolerance of corals is vital for their sustainability. However, this tolerance varies substantially geographically, and information regarding coral responses across latitudes is lacking. In this study, we conducted a high temperature (34 °C) stress experiment on Porites lutea from tropical Xisha Islands (XS) and subtropical Daya Bay (DY) in the South China Sea (SCS). We compared physiological levels, antioxidant activities, and transcriptome sequencing to explore heat tolerance mechanisms and adaptive potential. At 34 °C, both XS and DY corals experienced significant bleaching and the physiological/biochemical index decreased, with XS corals exhibiting greater changes than DY corals. Transcriptome analysis revealed that coral hosts respond to heat stress mainly by boosting metabolic activity. The subtle transcriptional responses of zooxanthellae C15 underscored the host's pivotal role in thermal stress responses. DY coral hosts showed lower bleaching, stronger physiological plasticity, and higher temperature tolerance thresholds than XS, indicating superior heat tolerance. This superiority is linked to negative feedback transcriptional regulation strategies, including active environmental stress response and genetic information damage repair. The differences in thermal adaptability between tropical and subtropical P. lutea in the SCS may be attributed to their genetic differences and native habitat environments, suggesting that subtropical P. lutea may have the potential to adapt to future climate change. This study provides novel insights for predicting the fate of corals at different latitudes in terms of global warming and provides instructive guidance for coral reef ecological restoration.}, }
@article {pmid39799296, year = {2025}, author = {Chen, S and Zolo, Y and Ngulube, L and Isiagi, M and Maswime, S}, title = {Global surgery and climate change: how global surgery can prioritise both the health of the planet and its people.}, journal = {BMC surgery}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {21}, pmid = {39799296}, issn = {1471-2482}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Global Health ; *Developing Countries ; Surgical Procedures, Operative ; Carbon Footprint ; Health Services Accessibility ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an emerging global health crisis, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where health outcomes are increasingly compromised by environmental stressors such as pollution, natural disasters, and human migration. With a focus on promoting health equity, Global Surgery advocates for expanding access to surgical care and enhancing health outcomes, particularly in resource-limited and disaster-affected areas like LMICs. The healthcare industry-and more specifically, surgical care-significantly contributes to the global carbon footprint, primarily through resource-intensive settings, i.e. operating rooms that generate greenhouse gases and substantial medical waste. Therefore, Global Surgery efforts aimed at improving surgical access through an increase in surgical volumes may inadvertently exacerbate health challenges for vulnerable populations by further contributing to environmental degradation. This predicament is particularly pronounced in LMICs, who already suffer from a disproportionate share of the global burden of disease, and where the demand for surgery is rising without corresponding resilient infrastructure. LMICs face a double jeopardy of health inequity coupled with climate vulnerability. As a movement positioned to improve health around the world, Global Surgery has an increasingly significant role in envisioning and ensuring a sustainable future. Global Surgery initiatives must prioritise sustainable infrastructure in both high-income countries (HICs) and LMICs, all while accounting for the unequal polluting contributions between HICs and LMICs and, consequently, moral responsibilities moving forward. Moreover, through targeting upstream causes of poor health at urban and perioperative levels, Global Surgery's interventions may help to reduce the global burden of disease-avoiding preventable surgeries and their carbon footprints from the outset. Altogether, Global Surgery and climate change are two matters of social justice whose solutions must synergistically centralise the health of both the planet and its most vulnerable people.}, }
@article {pmid39799162, year = {2025}, author = {Olim, ST and Nickoloff, A and Moffat, LJ and Weaver, AJ and Eby, M}, title = {Mitigating anthropogenic climate change with aqueous green energy.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {1700}, pmid = {39799162}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {Climate Action and Awareness Fund//Government of Canada/ ; Climate Action and Awareness Fund//Government of Canada/ ; Discovery Grant//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; Discovery Grant//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; Discovery Grant//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; Discovery Grant//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, abstract = {Reaching net zero emissions and limiting global warming to 2 °C requires the widespread introduction of technology-based solutions to draw down existing atmospheric levels and future emissions of CO2. One such approach is direct air CO2 capture and storage (DACCS), a readily available, yet energy-intensive process. The combination of DACCS and ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) allows for independently powered carbon capture plants to inject concentrated carbon into deep marine sediments where storage is generally safe and permanent. OTEC is a form of electricity production that exploits the temperature difference between deep and shallow ocean waters, and can power DACCS on floating platforms at a price competitive with coal-generated electricity. Here we highlight the scale of the challenge facing society. We show that a safe and sustainable level of OTEC-generated electricity powering DACCS for 70 years could result in up to a 35% decrease in the relative global mean temperature warming compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario.}, }
@article {pmid39798797, year = {2025}, author = {Xu, Y and Tang, Y and Wang, C and Luo, Z}, title = {Key environmental predictors of Noctiluca scintillans distribution in the China sea and its climate change response.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {367}, number = {}, pages = {125672}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2025.125672}, pmid = {39798797}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Noctiluca scintillans is one of the most common harmful algal species worldwide. In this study, a MaxEnt model was constructed to calculate the present and future habitat suitability of N. scintillans in the China Sea. A comprehensive evaluation index of variable importance was defined to measure the importance of key predictors in the model, and offshore distance, long-term average minimum primary productivity, water depth, long-term average minimum temperature, and minimum salinity were determined as the dominant drivers. The HAB index that was constructed by integrating the carrying capacity and habitat suitability characteristics was used to measure the risk of harmful algal blooms (HABs). The index indicated that high-risk areas of HABs caused by N. scintillans occurred around Hainan Island, Taiwan Island, the coastal areas of Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang provinces, and the eastern nearshore area of Weihai in Shandong. Regardless of the greenhouse gas emission scenario, the occurrence of N. scintillans red tides was predicted to persist until 2100. Moreover, the total area of the HABs high zone was predicted to increase under RCP2.6 and decrease under RCP8.5, and the center of the integrated HABs high zone was predicted to be concentrated in the central area of the entire China Sea spanning 15°N to 33°N.}, }
@article {pmid39795365, year = {2025}, author = {Baltazar, M and Castro, I and Gonçalves, B}, title = {Adaptation to Climate Change in Viticulture: The Role of Varietal Selection-A Review.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {39795365}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {UI/BD/150730/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; PD/00122/2012//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; UIDB/04033/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; LA/P/0126/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; }, abstract = {Viticulture faces unprecedented challenges due to the rapidly changing climate, particularly in regions like the Mediterranean Basin. Consequently, climate change adaptation strategies are crucial in viticulture, with short-term strategies being widely used despite increasing concerns about their sustainability, and long-term strategies considered promising, though costly. A promising but understudied strategy is varietal selection, as grapevines exhibit vast intervarietal diversity with untapped potential for climate-resilient varieties. By integrating research across plant physiology, biochemistry, histology, and genetics, we can better understand the traits behind the grapevine's capability for adaptation. Several traits, including morphological, physiological, and molecular aspects, have been shown to be crucial in adapting to environmental stresses such as drought and heat. By studying the abundant grapevine intervarietal diversity, the potential for viticulture adaptation to climate change through varietal selection is immense. This review article focuses on the potential of varietal selection in the adaptation of viticulture to climate change. For this, we will delve into the research regarding how climate affects grapevine growth and grape quality and how the grapevine responds to stress conditions, followed by a summary of different climate change adaptation strategies of viticulture. Finally, we will focus on varietal selection, discussing and summarizing different studies surrounding grapevine variety behaviour.}, }
@article {pmid39795346, year = {2024}, author = {Yao, W and Wang, Z and Fan, Y and Liu, D and Ding, Z and Zhou, Y and Hu, S and Zhang, W and Ou, J}, title = {Prediction of Potential Habitat Distributions and Climate Change Impacts on the Rare Species Woonyoungia septentrionalis (Magnoliaceae) in China Based on MaxEnt.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {39795346}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {MCHC-SC20232028//National Key Wildlife and Plant Conservation Project for Central Forestry and Grassland Transfer Payments/ ; }, abstract = {Changes in species' habitats provide important insights into the effects of climate change. Woonyoungia septentrionalis, a critically endangered species endemic to karst ecosystems, has a highly restricted distribution and is a key biological resource. Despite its ecological importance, the factors influencing its habitat suitability and distribution remain poorly understood. This study employed ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of Woonyoungia septentrionalis across China and analyzed shifts in centroid location to explore migration pathways under current and future climate scenarios. The model exhibited high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.988), indicating its robustness in assessing habitat suitability. Under current climatic conditions, Woonyoungia septentrionalis is predominantly found in the Guizhou-Guangxi border region, southeastern Yunnan, eastern Sichuan, southeastern Tibet, and parts of Chongqing, Hunan, and Hubei. Among these, the Guizhou-Guangxi border represents the primary suitable habitat. Temperature factors, particularly bio6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month) and bio7 (annual temperature range), were the most significant determinants of habitat suitability, contributing 43.29% and 12.65%, respectively. Soil cation exchange capacity (CEC) accounted for 15.82%, while precipitation had a relatively minor impact. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats for Woonyoungia septentrionalis are projected to shrink and shift toward higher altitudes and latitudes, increasing the risk of extinction due to the "mountain trap" effect, where migration is constrained by limited habitat at higher elevations. Stable habitats, particularly in Libo (Guizhou) and Huanjiang (Guangxi), are identified as critical refugia. We recommend prioritizing shrinking and stable habitats in Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan for in situ conservation. Ex situ conservation efforts should focus on areas identified based on key environmental factors and predicted migration pathways to ensure the species' long-term survival. This study provides both theoretical and practical guidance for the conservation of this species and its vulnerable habitat.}, }
@article {pmid39795327, year = {2024}, author = {Lu, K and Liu, M and Feng, Q and Liu, W and Zhu, M and Duan, Y}, title = {Predicting the Global Distribution of Nitraria L. Under Climate Change Based on Optimized MaxEnt Modeling.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {39795327}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {32060095, 32300324 and 32460323//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2022YFF1303301//The National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; YLKJ-2024-RCZD-001//Yulin Major Science and Technology Project Special Project/ ; CXY 2021-81 and CXY 2023-164//Yulin Industry-University-Research Project/ ; 2023-JC-QN-0252//Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi Province/ ; 2022PTJB010//Shaanxi Province "Four subjects and One Union" Sandy Land Ecological Protection and Restoration and Sand Industry Joint Research Center/ ; }, abstract = {The genus of Nitraria L. are Tertiary-relict desert sand-fixing plants, which are an important forage and agricultural product, as well as an important source of medicinal and woody vegetable oil. In order to provide a theoretical basis for better protection and utilization of species in the Nitraria L., this study collected global distribution information within the Nitraria L., along with data on 29 environmental and climatic factors. The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to simulate the globally suitable distribution areas for Nitraria L. The results showed that the mean AUC value was 0.897, the TSS average value was 0.913, and the model prediction results were excellent. UV-B seasonality (UVB-2), UV-B of the lowest month (UVB-4), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), the DEM (Digital Elevation Model), and annual precipitation (bio12) were the key variables affecting the distribution area of Nitraria L, with contributions of 54.4%, 11.1%, 8.3%, 7.4%, and 4.1%, respectively. The Nitraria L. plants are currently found mainly in Central Asia, North Africa, the neighboring Middle East, and parts of southern Australia and Siberia. In future scenarios, except for a small expansion of the 2030s scenario model Nitraria L., the potential suitable distribution areas showed a decreasing trend. The contraction area is mainly concentrated in South Asia, such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, North Africa, Libya, as well as in areas of low suitability in northern Australia, where there was also significant shrinkage. The areas of expansion are mainly concentrated in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the Iranian plateau, and the Sahara Desert is also partly expanded. With rising Greenhouse gas concentrations, habitat fragmentation is becoming more severe. Center-of-mass migration results also suggest that the potential suitable area of Nitraria L. will shift northwestward in the future. This study can provide a theoretical basis for determining the scope of Nitraria L. habitat protection, population restoration, resource management and industrial development in local areas.}, }
@article {pmid39795291, year = {2024}, author = {Nie, T and Liu, X and Chen, P and Jiang, L and Sun, Z and Yin, S and Wang, T and Li, T and Du, C}, title = {Characterizing Droughts During the Rice Growth Period in Northeast China Based on Daily SPEI Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {39795291}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {LH2023E109//Natural Science Foundation Project of Heilongjiang Province/ ; 52079028//National Natural Science Foundation Project of China/ ; 2021-KYYWF-0019//Basic Scientific Research Fund of Heilongjiang Provincial Universities/ ; AWR2021002//Opening Project of Key Laboratory of Efficient Use of Agricultural Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China/ ; GZC20230668//Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF/ ; }, abstract = {In agricultural production, droughts occurring during the crucial growth periods of crops hinder crop development, while the daily-scale standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) can be applied to accurately identify the drought characteristics. In this study, we used the statistical downscaling method to obtain the daily precipitation (Pr), maximum air temperature (Tmax) and minimum air temperature (Tmin) during the rice growing season in Heilongjiang Province from 2015 to 2100 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in CMIP6, to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought during the rice growing season in cold region and the effect of climate change on drought characteristics. The potential evapotranspiration (PET0) was calculated using the regression correction method of the Hargreaves formula recommended by the FAO, and the daily SPEI was calculated to quantitatively identify the drought classification. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between the meteorological factors (Pr, Tmax, Tmin), PET0 and SPEI. The results showed that: (1) Under 3 SSP scenarios, Pr showed an increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast, Tmax showed an increasing trend from the northeast to the southwest, and higher Tmin was mainly distributed in the east and west regions. (2) PET0 indicated an overall interannual rise in the three future SSP scenarios, with higher values mainly distributed in the central and western regions. The mean daily PET0 values ranged from 4.8 to 6.0 mm/d. (3) Under SSP1-2.6, rice mainly experienced mild drought and moderate drought (-0.5 ≥ SPEI > -1.5). The predominant drought classifications experienced were mild, moderate, and severe drought under SSP2-4.5 and SSP8.5 (-0.5 ≥ SPEI > -2.0). (4) The tillering stage experienced the highest drought frequency and drought intensity, with the longest drought lasting 24 days. However, the heading flower stage had the lowest drought frequency and drought intensity. The drought barycenter was mainly in Tieli and Suihua. (5) The PET0 was most affected by the Tmax, while the SPEI was most affected by the Pr. This study offers a scientific and rational foundation for understanding the drought sensitivity of rice in Northeast China, as well as a rationale for the optimal scheduling of water resources in agriculture in the future.}, }
@article {pmid39794993, year = {2024}, author = {Ferronato, G and Simonetto, A and Gilioli, G and Zecconi, A}, title = {Modeling Mastitis Risk Management Effects on Dairy Milk Yield and Global Warming Potential.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {39794993}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {2020-4135//Fondazione Cariplo/ ; }, abstract = {Mastitis represents a significant challenge for dairy farming, resulting in economic losses and environmental impacts. This study assesses a model for the evaluation of the impact of mastitis on dairy productivity and Global Warming Potential (GWP) under diverse management scenarios. The model considers a range of factors, including bedding materials, milking systems, health surveillance, and overcrowding. The results of the simulation demonstrate that effective management, encompassing the utilization of sand bedding, and the presence of an annual herd health monitoring plan have the potential to reduce the prevalence of mastitis and enhance milk yield by up to 10% in milking parlors and 7% in automatic milking systems. At the herd level, the GWP ranged from 1.37 to 1.78 kg CO2eq/kg Fat- and Protein-Corrected Milk (FPCM), with the use of sand bedding resulting in a 14% reduction in GWP, while the utilization of non-composted manure-based materials led to an increase of 12%. The occurrence of overcrowding and a lack of adequate cleanliness in resting areas were found to have a markedly detrimental impact on both productivity and the environmental performance of cows. These findings illustrate the dual benefits of enhanced mastitis management, namely improved milk production and reduced environmental impact. They offer valuable insights for farmers and policymakers alike.}, }
@article {pmid39794528, year = {2025}, author = {Andriuzzi, W}, title = {Dispersal under climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-024-02607-1}, pmid = {39794528}, issn = {2397-334X}, }
@article {pmid39794004, year = {2025}, author = {Butler, CD and Rao, M}, title = {What "dose" of anxiety is needed to awaken transformative action on climate change?.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {388}, number = {}, pages = {q2584}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q2584}, pmid = {39794004}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid39793647, year = {2025}, author = {Ge, W and Prime, NS and Smith, SJ and Liu, J and Ren, Y and Zhou, Y and Wu, H and Wang, X and Chen, G}, title = {The short-term comprehensive impact of the phase-out of global coal combustion on air pollution and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {367}, number = {}, pages = {125669}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2025.125669}, pmid = {39793647}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {With the continuous intensification of global warming, the reduction and ultimate phase-out of coal combustion is an inevitable trend in the future global energy transformation. This study comprehensively analyzed the impact of phasing out coal combustion on global emissions and concentrations of air pollutants, radiative fluxes, meteorology and climate using Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). The results indicate that after the global phase-out of coal combustion, there is a marked decrease in the concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), with some regions experiencing a reduction of exceeding 50%. There is no significant change in global ozone (O3) concentration. There are decreasing AOD and positive radiative fluxes globally in the short term, though the cloud contributes minor negative radiative fluxes. The global air temperature may increase by approximately (0.02 ± 0.15) °C on average with regional and seasonal variations, and the precipitation may potentially increase by approximately (2.7 ± 40.6) mm yr[-1] globally and over 20% in equatorial regions in the short term. But combined with the decreasing trend of cloud water content in the Northern Hemisphere, it indicates a potential increase in the extremity of precipitation events. This study provides references for global control of air pollution, mitigation strategies of climate change, and transformation of energy structures under the objective of "carbon neutrality", such as focusing on the negative climate impacts of exacerbating regional warming and increasing extreme precipitation resulting from the rapid reduction of aerosols in the short term.}, }
@article {pmid39793502, year = {2025}, author = {Sadyrov, S and Isaev, E and Tanaka, K and Murata, A and Sidle, RC}, title = {High-resolution assessment of climate change impacts on the surface energy and water balance in the glaciated Naryn River basin, Central Asia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {374}, number = {}, pages = {124021}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.124021}, pmid = {39793502}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Mountain regions of Central Asia are experiencing strong influences from climate change, with significant reductions in snow cover and glacial reserves. A comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences under the worst-case climate scenario is vital for adaptation measures throughout the region. Water balance analysis in the Naryn River basin was conducted for the baseline period of 1981-2000 including potential changes under the worst-case SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2077-2096 by combining high-resolution (5 km) regional climate projections with fully distributed glacio-hydrological (1 km) modeling. Results showed that with the complete degradation of glaciers and increase in evapotranspiration, the overall runoff will decrease by 16%, and in the upper basins, the reduction will exceed 40%. The maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decrease by 17%, and the seasonal peak of SWE will occur one month earlier. The transition from snow to rain will significantly affect lower regions, increasing extremes in peak runoff and causing 10-year recurrence interval events to occur every 3-4 years. Moreover, extreme runoff in high mountainous areas will increase due to intensified snowmelt and increased rainfall extremes. Additionally, a gradient of surface soil temperature change of 0.1 °C per 100 m elevation gain was observed, suggesting a potential snow-albedo feedback effect that could further amplify the warming, especially at higher altitudes. This study provides a robust analytical framework to assess the complex responses of mountain ecosystems to the impacts of climate change, with the potential of widespread application for addressing the challenges facing these critical regions.}, }
@article {pmid39793128, year = {2025}, author = {Jiménez-Bonilla, A and Rodríguez-Rodríguez, M and Yanes, JL and Gázquez, F}, title = {Impact of climate change on permanent lakes in a semiarid region: Southwestern Mediterranean basin (S Spain).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {961}, number = {}, pages = {178305}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178305}, pmid = {39793128}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In recent decades, many wetlands in the Mediterranean watershed have dried up. We forecast the impact of climate change on the hydrology of three permanent lakes in a semiarid areo of the southwestern Mediterranean region. To achieve this, we applied daily water balance models to calculate variations in water levels and validated our approach using actual lake level measurements spanning over 20 years. To delve into groundwater/lake interactions, we calculated several hydrological indices and compared evaporation with the water level drop during extremely dry periods. After validating the three hydrological models, we applied the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. We found Zóñar Lake highly resilient to climate changes because of groundwater contributions, resulting in minimal lake level oscillations even during periods of low rainfall. However, spring management and/or groundwater extractions may affect the lake hydroperiod. The Amarga and Grande lakes have weaker lake/groundwater interactions and show significant water lake level fluctuations, making them more sensitive to climate change. Indeed, our model predict that these lakes will transition into semipermanent or seasonal playa-lakes by mid-21th century. We found that deep and spring and/or groundwater-fed lakes are less vulnerable to climate changes. These results highlight the importance of developing robust hydrogeological models in such water bodies, focusing on the climate changes vulnerability of wetlands in semiarid regions, in order to formulate an integrated strategy for water resources management.}, }
@article {pmid39793053, year = {2025}, author = {Karatayev, VA and Munch, SB and Rogers, TL and Reuman, DC}, title = {Climate change could amplify weak synchrony in large marine ecosystems.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {1}, pages = {e2404155121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2404155121}, pmid = {39793053}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {2205794//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1714195//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 2023474//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; NA//James S. McDonnell Foundation (JSMF)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Animals ; *Population Dynamics ; *Fishes/physiology ; Invertebrates/physiology ; Aquatic Organisms/physiology ; California ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasing the frequency of large-scale, extreme environmental events and flattening environmental gradients. Whether such changes will cause spatially synchronous, large-scale population declines depends on mechanisms that limit metapopulation synchrony, thereby promoting rescue effects and stability. Using long-term data and empirical dynamic models, we quantified spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, spatial heterogeneity in environmental responses, and environmental gradients to assess their role in inhibiting synchrony across 36 marine fish and invertebrate species. Overall, spatial heterogeneity in population dynamics was as important as environmental drivers in explaining population variation. This heterogeneity leads to weak synchrony in the California Current Ecosystem, where populations exhibit diverse responses to shared, large-scale environmental change. In contrast, in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem, gradients in average environmental conditions among locations, filtered through nonlinear environmental response curves, limit synchrony. Simulations predict that environmental gradients and response diversity will continue to inhibit synchrony even if large-scale environmental extremes become common. However, if environmental gradients weaken, synchrony and periods of large-scale population decline may rise sharply among commercially important species on the Northeast Shelf. Our approach thus allows ecologists to 1) quantify how differences among local communities underpin landscape-scale resilience and 2) identify the kinds of future climatic changes most likely to amplify synchrony and erode species stability.}, }
@article {pmid39792824, year = {2025}, author = {Gulhan, D and Bahrami, B and Deroy, O}, title = {Studying attention to IPCC climate change maps with mobile eye-tracking.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {e0316909}, pmid = {39792824}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Attention/physiology ; *Eye-Tracking Technology ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Young Adult ; Eye Movements/physiology ; Anxiety/psychology ; }, abstract = {Many visualisations used in the climate communication field aim to present the scientific models of climate change to the public. However, relatively little research has been conducted on how such data are visually processed, particularly from a behavioural science perspective. This study examines trends in visual attention to climate change predictions in world maps using mobile eye-tracking while participants engage with the visualisations. Our primary aim is to assess engagement with the maps, as indicated by gaze metrics. Secondary analyses assess whether social context (as social viewing compared to solitary viewing) affects these trends, the relationship between projection types and visual attention, compare gaze metrics between scientific map and artwork viewing, and explore correlations between self-reported climate anxiety scores and attention patterns. We employed wearable, head-mounted eye-tracking to collect data in relatively naturalistic conditions, aiming to enhance ecological validity. In this research, participants engaged with ten world maps displaying near- and far-term climate projections across five data categories, adapted from the online interactive atlas provided by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To compare scientific information processing with aesthetic perception, participants also viewed two large-scale artworks. Responses to the Climate Change Anxiety Scale (CCAS) were also collected. Participants viewed the displays alone (single-viewing condition, N = 35) or together with a partner (paired-viewing condition, N = 12). Results revealed that the upper parts of the maps, particularly the continental Europe, received significant attention, suggesting a Euro-centric bias in viewing patterns. Spatial gaze patterns were similar between single and paired conditions, indicating that the visual attributes of the maps predominantly shaped attention locations. Although dwell times were comparable, the paired condition showed higher fixation counts, shorter average fixation durations, and longer scanpaths, suggesting a potentially dissociable viewing strategy and more exploratory viewing patterns influenced by social interaction. No substantial differences were observed in attention across projection timeframes or types, although individual variations were noted. Artwork viewing exhibited notably shorter average fixation durations compared to climate map viewing, potentially reflecting different visual engagement styles. Despite positive linear correlations among the four CCAS subscales, there was no apparent correlation between CCAS scores and main gaze metrics, indicating a lack of a direct relationship between self-reported anxiety and gaze behaviour. In summary, visual attention to climate change visualisations appears to be mainly influenced by the inherent visual attributes of the maps, but the social context may subtly influence visual attention. Additionally, the comparison with aesthetic viewing highlights relatively distinct attentional patterns in scientific versus aesthetic engagements.}, }
@article {pmid39790456, year = {2025}, author = {Fan, YC and Yuan, YQ and Yuan, YC and Duan, WJ and Gao, ZQ}, title = {Research progress on the impact of climate change on wheat production in China.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {e18569}, pmid = {39790456}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {*Triticum/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; China ; Agriculture/methods ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {It is crucial to elucidate the impact of climate change on wheat production in China. This article provides a review of the current climate change scenario and its effects on wheat cultivation in China, along with an examination of potential future impacts and possible response strategies. Against the backdrop of climate change, several key trends emerge: increasing temperature during the wheat growing season, raising precipitation, elevated CO2 concentration, and diminished radiation. Agricultural disasters primarily stem from oscillations in temperature and precipitation, with the northern wheat region being mostly affected. The impact on wheat production is manifested in a reduction in the area under cultivation, with the most rapid reduction in spring wheat, and a shift in the center of cultivation to the west. Furthermore, climate change accelerates the nutritional stage and shortens phenology. Climate change has also led to an increase in yields in the Northeast spring wheat region, the Northern spring wheat region, the Northwest spring wheat region, and the North China winter wheat region, and a decrease in yields in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River winter wheat region, the Southwest winter wheat region, and the South China winter wheat region. To cope with climate change, Chinese wheat can adopt adaptation strategies and measures such as breeding different wheat varieties for different wheat-growing regions, implementing differentiated farmland management measures, promoting regional ecological farmland construction, and establishing scientific monitoring and early warning systems. While future climate change may stimulate wheat yield potential, it could cause climate-induced issues such as weeds, diseases, and pests worsen, thereby posing challenges to the sustainability of farmland. Moreover, it is essential to conduct comprehensive research on pivotal areas such as the microscopic mechanism of climate change and wheat growth, the comprehensive influence of multiple climate factors, and the application of new monitoring and simulation technologies. This will facilitate the advancement of related research and provide invaluable insights.}, }
@article {pmid39790104, year = {2025}, author = {Wang, L and Liu, Y and Zhao, L and Lu, X and Huang, L and Jin, Y and Davis, SJ and Aghakouchak, A and Huang, X and Zhu, T and Qin, Y}, title = {Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China.}, journal = {National science review}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {nwae424}, pmid = {39790104}, issn = {2053-714X}, abstract = {China's pursuit of carbon neutrality targets hinges on a profound shift towards low-carbon energy, primarily reliant on intermittent and variable, yet crucial, solar and wind power sources. In particular, low-solar-low-wind (LSLW) compound extremes present a critical yet largely ignored threat to the reliability of renewable electricity generation. While existing studies have largely evaluated the impacts of average climate-induced changes in renewable energy resources, comprehensive analyses of the compound extremes and, particularly, the underpinning dynamic mechanisms remain scarce. Here we show the dynamic evolution of compound LSLW extremes and their underlying mechanisms across China via coupling multi-model simulations with diagnostic analysis. Our results unveil a strong topographic dependence in the frequency of compound LSLW extremes, with a national average frequency of 16.4 (10th-90th percentile interval ranges from 5.3 to 32.6) days/yr, when renewable energy resources in eastern China are particularly compromised (∼80% lower than that under an average climate). We reveal a striking increase in the frequency of LSLW extremes, ranging from 12.4% under SSP126 to 60.2% under SSP370, primarily driven by both renewable energy resource declines and increasingly heavily-tailed distributions, resulting from weakened meridional temperature (pressure) gradient, increased frequency of extremely dense cloud cover and additional distinctive influence of increased aerosols under SSP370. Our study underscores the urgency of preparing for significantly heightened occurrences of LSLW events in a warmer future, emphasizing that such climate-induced compound LSLW extreme changes are not simply by chance, but rather projectable, thereby underscoring the need for proactive adaptation strategies. Such insights are crucial for countries navigating a similar transition towards renewable energy.}, }
@article {pmid39788890, year = {2025}, author = {Zhao, G and Kim, H and Yang, C and Chung, YG}, title = {Correction to "Leveraging Machine Learning To Predict the Atmospheric Lifetime and the Global Warming Potential of SF6 Replacement Gases".}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.jpca.5c00016}, pmid = {39788890}, issn = {1520-5215}, }
@article {pmid39788051, year = {2025}, author = {Sponagel, C and Weik, J and Witte, F and Back, H and Wagner, M and Ruser, R and Bahrs, E}, title = {Climate change mitigation potential and economic evaluation of selected technical adaptation measures and innovations in conventional arable farming in Germany.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {374}, number = {}, pages = {123884}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123884}, pmid = {39788051}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Agriculture accounts for a large proportion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is therefore crucial to identify effective and efficient GHG mitigation potentials in agriculture, but also in related upstream sectors. However, previous studies in this area have rarely undertaken a cross-sectoral assessment. There is also a gap in research on the GHG mitigation potential of innovations such as green ammonia in arable farming at a larger spatial scale. The study therefore aimed to analyze how selected technological adaptations or innovations can be used to contribute to efficient and effective cross-sectoral GHG mitigation in conventional arable farming systems. Germany, one of the largest agricultural producers and contributors of GHG emissions from agriculture in the EU, was chosen as a case study. The GHG mitigation potential and abatement cost of four selected measures were analyzed using an integrated land use model and life cycle assessment. Their GHG mitigation potential varied between 0.3 Mt CO2-eq. for nitrification inhibitors under lower mitigation rate assumptions and 4.7 Mt CO2-eq. for green ammonia with upper mitigation rate assumptions on GHG emission impacts, i. e. rather high mitigation. While crop varieties based on new genomic technologies (NGT) were introduced at no GHG abatement cost, the average mitigation costs ranged from 48 € for the use of nitrification inhibitors (upper mitigation rate) to 1233 € per t CO2-eq. for N sensors (lower mitigation rate). There were also regional differences due to different land use structures, regional farm sizes, economic and agronomic conditions. Based on these results we recommend for agricultural and environmental policy to foster the use of nitrification inhibitors due to the identified GHG reduction potential and the comparatively low GHG abatement costs. Additionally, the use of green ammonia in fertilizer production should be further promoted. Although the results are exemplary for Germany, they can be very informative for other EU Member States with comparable socio-economic and agronomic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39787218, year = {2025}, author = {Pillar, VD and Overbeck, GE}, title = {Grazing can reduce wildfire risk amid climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {387}, number = {6730}, pages = {eadu7471}, doi = {10.1126/science.adu7471}, pmid = {39787218}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Grassland ; *Herbivory ; Poaceae ; Smoke/adverse effects ; *Wildfires ; Risk ; }, abstract = {Over half of Earth's land surface is covered with fire-prone vegetation, with grassy ecosystems-such as grasslands, savannas, woodlands, and shrublands-being the most extensive. In the context of the climate crisis, scientists worldwide are exploring adaptation measures to address the heightened fire risk driven by more frequent extreme climatic conditions such as droughts and heatwaves, as well as by non-native plant invasions that increased fuel loads and altered fire regimes. Although fire is intrinsic to grassy ecosystems, rising exposure to wildfire smoke harms human health and the environment. Here, we argue that grazing management in grassy ecosystems could help reduce wildfire risk and its consequences.}, }
@article {pmid39786478, year = {2025}, author = {Sattar, T and Mirza, NF and Javed, MA and Nasar-U-Minallah, M and Malik, S}, title = {Changing pattern of urban landscape and its impact on thermal environment of Lahore; Implications for climate change and sustainable development.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {2}, pages = {151}, pmid = {39786478}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Urbanization ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Sustainable Development ; *Geographic Information Systems ; *Cities ; Temperature ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {Rapid urbanization in Lahore has dramatically transformed land use and land cover (LULC), significantly impacting the city's thermal environment and intensifying climate change and sustainable development challenges. This study aims to examine the changes in the urban landscape of Lahore and their impact on the Urban thermal environment between 1990 and 2020. The previous studies conducted on Lahore lack the application of Geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) to quantify land use and land cover, which is successfully covered in this study. This study analyzes how urban sprawl has driven LULC shifts and assesses their direct impact on Land Surface Temperature (LST) using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Landsat imagery, processed using Google Earth Engine (GEE), was employed for LULC classification and LST calculation, ensuring high accuracy through multi-level change detection and a thorough accuracy assessment. Pearson's correlation was also calculated in this study to assess the impact of decreased green cover on LST. The findings highlight a substantial decrease in green cover, from 1,292.8 km[2] in 1990 to 754 km[2] in 2020, alongside a marked increase in built-up areas, expanding from 262 km[2] to over 550 km[2]. Additionally, barren land showed significant growth, while water bodies diminished. The spatiotemporal analysis of LST indicates a considerable rise in high-temperature zones, specifically the industrial zones, with areas exceeding 40 °C expanding from 2 km[2] to 1,075 km[2] over the study period. A strong positive correlation between increased urbanization and rising LST, particularly in areas within a 10 to 40 km radius of the Central Business District (CBD), is evident. The overall accuracy of LULC classification surpassed 94%, with the kappa coefficient above 92%, ensuring the robustness of the results. Future research should focus on evaluating the long-term socioeconomic impacts of urban sprawl and LST increment while developing heat mitigation strategies. Recommendations include adopting sustainable urban planning practices prioritizing green infrastructure, energy-efficient building designs, and policies promoting environmental preservation. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers and underscores the urgency of balancing urban growth with strategies that mitigate thermal stress, combat climate change, and foster sustainable development in Lahore.}, }
@article {pmid39781276, year = {2025}, author = {Feng, X and Wang, X and Jia, L and Yuan, W and Lu, M and Liu, N and Wu, F and Cai, X and Wang, F and Lin, CJ}, title = {Influence of global warming and human activity on mercury accumulation patterns in wetlands across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.}, journal = {National science review}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {nwae414}, pmid = {39781276}, issn = {2053-714X}, abstract = {Wetlands in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are a unique and fragile ecosystem undergoing rapid changes. We show two unique patterns of mercury (Hg) accumulation in wetland sediments. One is the 'surface peak' in monsoon-controlled regions and the other is the 'subsurface peak' in westerly-controlled regions. The former is attributed to the combined effects of increasing anthropogenic emissions and climate-induced changes in the cryosphere and wetland hydrology in the last 100-150 years. The climate changes in westerly-controlled regions in the last 50-70 years led to a fluctuation in hydrology and Hg peak in the sediment subsurface. The increase in legacy Hg input from soil erosion has largely enhanced the Hg accumulation rate in wetlands since the 1950s, especially in the proglacial wetlands. We highlight that accelerated glacier melting and permafrost thawing caused by global warming have altered geomorphology and hydrology, and affected Hg transport and accumulation in wetlands.}, }
@article {pmid39780586, year = {2025}, author = {Locatelli, B and Lavorel, S and Colloff, MJ and Crouzat, E and Bruley, E and Fedele, G and Grêt-Regamey, A and Plieninger, T and Andersson, E and Abbott, M and Butler, J and Devisscher, T and Djoudi, H and Dubo, T and González-García, A and Karim, PG and Múnera-Roldán, C and Neyret, M and Quétier, F and Salliou, N and Walters, G}, title = {Intertwined people-nature relations are central to nature-based adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {380}, number = {1917}, pages = {20230213}, pmid = {39780586}, issn = {1471-2970}, support = {//Biodiversa+/ ; //Universit&#xe9; Grenoble Alpes/ ; ANR-24-PEFO; ANR-22-EXSO//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; //Future Cities Lab Global/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Adaptation to climate change is a social-ecological process: it is not solely a result of natural processes or human decisions but emerges from multiple relations within social systems, within ecological systems and between them. We propose a novel analytical framework to evaluate social-ecological relations in nature-based adaptation, encompassing social (people-people), ecological (nature-nature) and social-ecological (people-nature) relations. Applying this framework to 25 case studies, we analyse the associations among these relations and identify archetypes of social-ecological adaptation. Our findings revealed that adaptation actions with more people-nature relations mobilize more social and ecological relations. We identified four archetypes, with distinct modes of adaptation along a gradient of people-nature interaction scores, summarized as: (i) nature control; (ii) biodiversity-based; (iii) ecosystem services-based; and (iv) integrated approaches. This study contributes to a nuanced understanding of nature-based adaptation, highlighting the importance of integrating diverse relations across social and ecological systems. Our findings offer valuable insights for informing the design and implementation of adaptation strategies and policies.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.}, }
@article {pmid39780106, year = {2025}, author = {Dias, IMAV and Grande, AJ and Jardim, PTC and Machado, AAV and Soratto, J and da Rosa, MI and Ceretta, LB and Roever, L and Zourntos, X and Harding, S}, title = {Indigenous university students' perceptions regarding nature, their daily lives and climate change: a photovoice study.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {90}, pmid = {39780106}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Students/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Female ; Male ; Universities ; Young Adult ; *Photography ; Brazil ; Adult ; Qualitative Research ; Nature ; Indians, South American/psychology ; Ecosystem ; Adolescent ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has severe health impacts, particularly for populations living in environmentally sensitive areas such as riversides, slopes, and forests. These challenges are exacerbated for Indigenous communities, who often face marginalisation and rely heavily on the land for their livelihoods. Despite their vulnerability, the perspectives of Indigenous populations on climate change and its impacts remain underexplored, creating a critical gap in the literature. This study explored the perceptions of Indigenous Brazilian university students on how climate change affects their daily lives and gathered their insights on potential adaptations to mitigate climate change-related impacts.<br><br>METHODS: Using a participatory arts-based approach, participants captured photographs reflecting their lived experiences with climate change. Follow-up interviews provided a narrative framework for qualitative analysis, enabling participants to articulate the strengths and concerns of their communities while transcending cultural and linguistic barriers.<br><br>RESULTS: The study revealed key themes, including (1) the fragility of ecosystems critical to Indigenous livelihoods, (2) the erosion of traditional knowledge systems due to environmental and social disruptions, and (3) the need for community-driven strategies to protect territories and preserve cultural identities. Participants highlighted the interconnectedness of their cultural values with environmental stewardship, emphasising the importance of maintaining these relationships as a form of resilience.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study underscores the importance of protecting Indigenous territories and respecting their cultural identities to safeguard their survival and traditions. The voices of Indigenous university students provided valuable insights into community-based adaptations and strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39778418, year = {2024}, author = {Gao, T and Liu, J}, title = {Building bidirectional, signed, and weighted interaction network among microbes: Comment on "Topological change of soil microbiota networks for forest resilience under global warming" by Gong et al.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {52}, number = {}, pages = {178-179}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2024.12.010}, pmid = {39778418}, issn = {1873-1457}, }
@article {pmid39778236, year = {2025}, author = {Speck, CL and Newlove, CM and DiPietro Mager, NA and Mager, JN}, title = {Opinions about climate change, health, and pharmacy education among pharmacy faculty and administrators in the United States: A cross-sectional survey.}, journal = {Currents in pharmacy teaching &amp; learning}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {102251}, doi = {10.1016/j.cptl.2024.102251}, pmid = {39778236}, issn = {1877-1300}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The pharmacy profession must address climate change and its impact on health. Student pharmacists should be made aware of roles in sustainability, education, patient care, and advocacy; yet, pharmacy educators' perceptions of climate change and health may impact the extent and quality of education provided.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The primary objective was to assess pharmacy educators' beliefs regarding climate change and whether its effects on health should be included in Doctor of Pharmacy curricula. Secondary objectives were to identify potential barriers, helpful materials, and current and future tactics to provide this content.<br><br>METHODS: An electronic survey was sent to faculty and administrators of U.S.-based, fully-accredited Doctor of Pharmacy programs (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;139) in February 2024 collecting opinions and demographic information.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 764 usable surveys were completed, representing 135 programs. Nearly 87&#xa0;% of respondents thought climate change is happening. More thought climate change harms human health (74.7&#xa0;%) than thought climate change was relevant to pharmacists/pharmacy practice (51.6&#xa0;%, p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001) or pharmaceutical scientists/pharmaceutical sciences (57.2&#xa0;%, p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001). Perceived importance of including specific topics in pharmacy education ranged from 58&#xa0;% (loss of biodiversity) to 80&#xa0;% (disaster preparedness/response). Respondents indicated they would be most likely to use case studies (61.2&#xa0;%) and active learning exercises (57.5&#xa0;%) if they were available. Ninety-seven percent perceived at least one challenge to incorporating climate change and health in curricula.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is a need to increase knowledge and awareness among pharmacy educators regarding the connection between climate change, health, and pharmacy practice to prepare student pharmacists to protect public health.}, }
@article {pmid39776988, year = {2024}, author = {Soomro, S and Zhou, D and Charan, IA}, title = {The effects of climate change on mental health and psychological well-being: Impacts and priority actions.}, journal = {Global mental health (Cambridge, England)}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e118}, pmid = {39776988}, issn = {2054-4251}, abstract = {Climate anxiety has a negative impact on the mental health and psychological well-being of the vulnerable population. The goal is to assess many factors that affect mental health and psychological well-being, as well as how climate change affects mental health in Pakistan's vulnerable population. This study provides evidence-based insights into the long- and medium-term impacts of extreme weather events on mental health. To obtain information on these variables, this research uses a quantitative approach and a cross-sectional survey design with a multivariate regression model for empirical tests on a sample of parents and children with an impact on mental health from climate change anxiety. Results indicate that individuals who experience shock climate change anxiety and its effects on mental health and psychological well-being. Climate change can have detrimental effects on children's mental health. (1) Children's Stress Index (CSI): (2) climate change anxiety (CCA), (3) generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) and (4) major depression disorder (MDD), as reported by the children with mental health outcomes. The findings of this study show that climate change has a stressful effect on mental health. The article concludes with a discussion on strategies to address the anticipated mental health issues among children due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39776685, year = {2024}, author = {Krzysiak, MK and Świątalska, A and Plis-Kuprianowicz, E and Konieczny, A and Bakier, S and Tomczuk, K and Larska, M}, title = {Fatal Sarcoptes scabiei and Demodex sp. co-infestation in wolves (Canis lupus) at the Białowieża National Park, Poland - is it a consequence of climate change?.}, journal = {Journal of veterinary research}, volume = {68}, number = {4}, pages = {551-562}, pmid = {39776685}, issn = {2450-7393}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: In winter 2021/2022, a wolf population in the primeval Białowieża Forest in Poland was struck by an outbreak of severe mange caused by mixed infestations of Sarcoptes and Demodex mites. We present an epidemiological analysis of this mange which caused significant morbidity and mortality.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: Ten sites known for wolf activity were monitored by camera trapping. A diagnostic necropsy and testing of a young wolf was performed to determine the causes of death.<br><br>RESULTS: Five young wolves with severe alopecia of the entire body and some other individuals with minor to medium mange lesions were identified by the camera surveillance. The necropsy of the carcass revealed emaciation, dehydration and anaemia with starvation as the cause of death, likely attributable to severe infestation with Sarcoptes scabiei and Demodex sp. mites. Rabies and infections with Borreliella sp., Anaplasma sp., Ehrlichia sp., Francisella tularensis, Babesia sp. and tick-borne encephalitis virus were excluded by specific tests.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The described analysis is the first documented co-infestation of this kind in wolves. The outbreak coincided with very mild winter conditions with a high average minimum temperature, which may have favoured mite survival outside the host, and light snowfall, which may have influenced the wolves' ability to hunt. Other potential drivers of the outbreak could be the large proportion of wetland terrain, increasing number of wolves in the area and anthropogenic pressure on their habitats including the migration crisis at the Polish-Belarusian border and the increased presence of military and border forces, even despite the relief from the anthropogenic pressure from tourism due to the COVID-19 lockdown.}, }
@article {pmid39775886, year = {2025}, author = {Bartošová, L and Hájková, L and Pohanková, E and Možný, M and Balek, J and Zahradníček, P and Štěpánek, P and Dížková, P and Trnka, M and Žalud, Z}, title = {Differences in phenological term changes in field crops and wild plants - do they have the same response to climate change in Central Europe?.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39775886}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {CZ.02.01.01/00/22_008/0004635//Ministerstvo &#x160;kolstv&#xed;, Ml&#xe1;de&#x17e;e a T&#x11b;lov&#xfd;chovy/ ; }, abstract = {Phenological shifts in wild-growing plants and wild animal phenophases are well documented at many European sites. Less is known about phenological shifts in agricultural plants and how wild ecosystem phenology interacts with crop phenology. Here, we present long-term phenological observations (1961-2021) from the Czech Republic for wild plants and agricultural crops and how the timing of phenophases differs from each other. The phenology of wild-growing plants was observed at various experimental sites with no agriculture or forestry management within the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute observations. The phenological data of the crops were collected from small experimental plots at the Central Institute for Supervising and Testing in Agriculture. The data clearly show a tendency to shift to earlier times during the observation period. The data also show some asynchrony in phenological shifts. Compared with wild plants, agricultural crops showed more expressive shifts to the start of the season. Phenological trends for crop plants (Triticum aestivum) showed accelerated shifts of 4.1 and 5.1 days per decade at low and middle altitudes, respectively; on the other hand, the average phenological shift for wild plants showed smaller shifts of 2.7 and 2.9 days per decade at low and middle altitudes, respectively. The phenophase ´heading´ of T. aestivum showed the highest correlation with maximum temperatures (r = 0.9), followed by wild species (with r = 0.7-0.8) and two remaining phenophases of T. aestivum jointing and ripening (with r = 0.7 and 0.6). To better understand the impacts of climate on phenological changes, it is optimal to evaluate natural and unaffected plant responses in wild species since the phenology of field crops is most probably influenced not only by climate but also by agricultural management.}, }
@article {pmid39775873, year = {2025}, author = {Schilcher, AV and Geerling, G}, title = {[Climate change and ocular surface diseases].}, journal = {Die Ophthalmologie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39775873}, issn = {2731-7218}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The ocular surface is directly exposed to environmental influences. Noxae that have already been identified for the ocular surface are heat, air dryness, pollutant gases, fine dust particles and ultraviolet radiation.<br><br>METHODS: The current literature was used to investigate the relationship between frequent ocular surface diseases and various environmental factors and to analyze their development over the years.<br><br>RESULTS: Epidemiological studies on dry eye disease and allergic conjunctivitis have shown an increase in the incidences in recent years. Environmental pollutants have been identified as disease triggers. In addition, the prolonged pollen season and increased pollen concentrations are also risk factors. There is also a&#xa0;higher prevalence of pterygium in population groups with high UV exposure. Other diseases with potential environmental pathogenesis are acute photokeratitis, photoconjunctivitis and malignant melanoma of the conjunctiva.<br><br>CONCLUSION: For ocular surface diseases, large epidemiological cohorts have shown climate-related increases in the incidence. A&#xa0;further increase in environmentally associated noxious substances can be expected in the coming decades. In addition to measures to mitigate climate change, the underlying mechanisms of disease development and new approaches to prevention and treatment, such as room humidification, air filters or contact lenses with UV filters, should be investigated.}, }
@article {pmid39775827, year = {2025}, author = {Estravis-Barcala, M and Gaischuk, S and Gonzalez-Polo, M and Martinez-Meier, A and Gutiérrez, RA and Yanovsky, MJ and Bellora, N and Arana, MV}, title = {Effect of temperature on circadian clock functioning of trees in the context of global warming.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.20342}, pmid = {39775827}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {//Instituto Milenio iBio/ ; 2019-PD-E6-I116//Instituto Nacional de Tecnolog&#xed;a Agropecuaria/ ; 2023-PD-L01-I085//Instituto Nacional de Tecnolog&#xed;a Agropecuaria/ ; PIP 2020-11220200102254CO//Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cient&#xed;ficas y T&#xe9;cnicas/ ; ICN2021_044//Millennium Science Initiative Program/ ; PICT 2011/2250//Agencia Nacional de Promoci&#xf3;n de la Investigaci&#xf3;n, el Desarrollo tecnol&#xf3;gico y la Innovaci&#xf3;n, Argentina/ ; PICT 2017/2656//Agencia Nacional de Promoci&#xf3;n de la Investigaci&#xf3;n, el Desarrollo tecnol&#xf3;gico y la Innovaci&#xf3;n, Argentina/ ; PICT 2020/02146//Agencia Nacional de Promoci&#xf3;n de la Investigaci&#xf3;n, el Desarrollo tecnol&#xf3;gico y la Innovaci&#xf3;n, Argentina/ ; }, abstract = {Plant survival in a warmer world requires the timely adjustment of biological processes to cyclical changes in the new environment. Circadian oscillators have been proposed to contribute to thermal adaptation and plasticity. However, the influence of temperature on circadian clock performance and its impact on plant behaviour in natural ecosystems are not well-understood. We combined bioinformatics, molecular biology and ecophysiology to investigate the effects of increasing temperatures on the functioning of the circadian clock in two closely related tree species from Patagonian forests that constitute examples of adaptation to different thermal environments based on their altitudinal profiles. Nothofagus pumilio, the species from colder environments, showed a major rearrangement of its transcriptome and reduced ability to maintain rhythmicity at high temperatures compared with Nothofagus obliqua, which inhabits warmer zones. In altitude-swap experiments, N. pumilio, but not N. obliqua, showed limited oscillator function in warmer zones of the forest, and reduced survival and growth. Our findings show that interspecific differences in the influence of temperature on circadian clock performance are associated with preferred thermal niches, and to thermal plasticity of seedlings in natural environments, highlighting the potential role of a resonating oscillator in ecological adaptation to a warming environment.}, }
@article {pmid39775408, year = {2025}, author = {McMichael, C and Powell, T and Piggott-McKellar, AE and Yee, M}, title = {Climate change and the planned relocation of people: A longitudinal analysis of Vunidogoloa, Fiji.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39775408}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {DP190100604//Australian Research Council/ ; HJ2-194R-18//National Gegraphic Society/ ; }, abstract = {Rising sea levels under a changing climate will cause permanent inundation, flooding, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion. An emerging adaptation response is planned relocation, a directed process of relocating people, assets, and infrastructure to safer locations. Climate-related planned relocation is an unfolding process, yet no longitudinal studies have examined outcomes over time. Vunidogoloa, a low-lying coastal village in Fiji, relocated to higher land in 2014. This paper considers the dynamic outcomes of relocation, based on qualitative data collected between 2015 and 2023. It examines: residents' changing experience of climate and environmental risk; governance and decision-making processes over time; improved access to many resources and services along with incomplete infrastructure; opportunities and threats to health; and changing social organization and place-based values. The paper foregrounds change over time and provides in-depth examination of dynamic planned relocation experiences and (mal)adaptation outcomes in Vunidogoloa, Fiji.}, }
@article {pmid39775267, year = {2025}, author = {Maya, MA and Suresh, V}, title = {The impact of climate change on the nearly threatened taxa Elaeocarpus munroi (Wight) Mast. inhabiting in the forest of the Western Ghats.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {2}, pages = {146}, pmid = {39775267}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {08/675(003)/2018-EMR-1//CSIR-JRF/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Endangered Species ; *Forests ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Elaeocarpus munroi (Wight) Mast., commonly called Nilgiri Marble Tree, is a nearly threatened taxa as per the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This species is endemic to the southern Western Ghats. The present study examines its spatial distribution across the sky islands of the Western Ghats under different climate scenarios (1900-2100) using four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Species distribution modeling was conducted using ensemble techniques in R, along with various ecological niche modeling algorithms. The present study examines the past, present, and future distribution of E. munroi across the Western Ghats. Historical projections indicated that the highest habitat suitability areas for the species were in the southern and central regions of the Western Ghats. The model projections for the species from 2021 to 2100 indicate a noticeable northward shift in habitat suitability. As climate scenarios change, the central and northern regions of the Western Ghats are becoming more suitable for it. This anticipated shift poses a potential threat to the species persistence, as the availability of suitable habitats decline in its historically preferred southern range. This range shift, coupled with E. munroi's near-threatened status, emphasizes the urgent need for its conservation interventions. This study pioneers efforts to understand and mitigate the impacts of climate change on E. munroi. This, in turn, offers a foundation for developing targeted conservation strategies in this ecologically important region. The findings highlight the importance of integrating climate change into conservation planning and management practices to safeguard the future of species like E. munroi within the broader ecosystem they inhabit. This study contributes to the growing body of research addressing the complex interplay between climate change and biodiversity conservation, thereby underscoring the need for collaborative and proactive approaches to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39774305, year = {2025}, author = {Erhart, S and Szabó, S and Erhart, K}, title = {Integrating Pollutant registers for the climate change risk evaluation of industrial companies in Australia, Europe and North America.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {1207}, pmid = {39774305}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {We present a methodology to develop the integrated climate change transition and physical risk assessment of industrial companies in Europe, Northern America and Australia. There is an increasingly important need for effective large-scale climate change risk assessment solutions with more governments aligning their company reporting regulations with the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures recommendations. In this paper, we measure key aspects of climate change risks of industrial firms on the globe and vice versa. The study provides valuable insights into climate risk exposure for companies, investors, and consumers, offering a pioneering approach by integrating data from major international registers. We analyse data from 70,000 companies and their 170,000 plants, which report to fragmented Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers and Greenhouse Gas Reporting Programs. For our assessment, transition risks are measured in terms of reported greenhouse gas emissions, while physical risks calculated for all company plant locations in terms of historical cooling energy needs, flood exposure and photovoltaic power potential. We show that climate change transition and physical risks are not correlated, therefore climate change risks are variably felt across different factors. The research contributes to the evolving landscape of climate risk management and highlights the need for standardized methodologies in the face of impending regulatory changes.}, }
@article {pmid39774176, year = {2025}, author = {Zhou, J and Li, W and Ciais, P and Gasser, T and Wang, J and Li, Z and Zhu, L and Han, M and He, J and Sun, M and Liu, L and Huang, X}, title = {Contributions of countries without a carbon neutrality target to limit global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {468}, pmid = {39774176}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a key negative emission technology for climate mitigation. Some countries have made no commitment to carbon neutrality but are viewed as potential BECCS candidates (hereafter, non-CN countries). Here we analyze contributions of these countries to global climate mitigation with respect to BECCS using an Earth system model with explicit representations of bioenergy crops. Switchgrass cultivation in these non-CN countries can further remove atmospheric CO2 by 9.1 ± 2.8 and 19.9 ± 5.2 PgC in the low-warming and overshot scenarios, resulting in an extra biogeochemical cooling effect of 0.01 ± 0.04 to 0.02 ± 0.06 °C. This cooling is largely counterbalanced by the biophysical warming, but the net effect is still an extra cooling. The non-CN countries play a more important role in the low-warming scenario than in the overshoot scenario, despite the inequality of temperature change among countries. Our study highlights the importance of a global system for climate mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid39773978, year = {2025}, author = {Thompson, HM and Sheffield, P and Shakeel, O and Wood, NM and Miller, MD}, title = {Climate change will impact childhood cancer risks, care and outcomes.}, journal = {BMJ paediatrics open}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjpo-2024-003123}, pmid = {39773978}, issn = {2399-9772}, }
@article {pmid39773181, year = {2025}, author = {Adams, N and Dias, T and Skeen, HR and Pegan, T and Willard, DE and Winger, B and Ruegg, K and Weeks, BC and Bay, R}, title = {Genetic and morphological shifts associated with climate change in a migratory bird.}, journal = {BMC biology}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {3}, pmid = {39773181}, issn = {1741-7007}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Animal Migration ; *Songbirds/genetics/anatomy &amp; histology/physiology ; Body Size/genetics ; Genome-Wide Association Study ; Beak/anatomy &amp; histology ; Biological Evolution ; Wings, Animal/anatomy &amp; histology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Rapid morphological change is emerging as a consequence of climate change in many systems. It is intuitive to hypothesize that temporal morphological trends are driven by the same selective pressures that have established well-known ecogeographic patterns over spatial environmental gradients (e.g., Bergman's and Allen's rules). However, mechanistic understanding of contemporary morphological shifts is lacking.<br><br>RESULTS: We combine morphological data and whole genome sequencing from a four-decade dataset in the migratory bird hermit thrush (Catharus guttatus) to test whether morphological shifts over time are accompanied by genetic change. Using genome-wide association, we identify alleles associated with body size, bill length, and wing length. Shifts in morphology and concordant shifts in morphology-associated alleles over time would support a genetic basis for the observed changes in morphology over recent decades, potentially an adaptive response to climate change. In our data, bill size decreases were paralleled by genetic shifts in bill size-associated alleles. On the other hand, alleles associated with body size showed no shift in frequency over time.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Together, our results show mixed support for evolutionary explanations of morphological response to climate change. Temporal shifts in alleles associated with bill size support the hypothesis that selection is driving temporal morphological trends. The lack of evidence for genetic shifts in body size alleles could be explained by a large role of plasticity or technical limitations associated with the likely polygenic architecture of body size, or both. Disentangling the mechanisms responsible for observed morphological response to changing environments will be vital for predicting future organismal and population responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39772738, year = {2025}, author = {Couper, LI and Dodge, TO and Hemker, JA and Kim, BY and Exposito-Alonso, M and Brem, RB and Mordecai, EA and Bitter, MC}, title = {Evolutionary adaptation under climate change: Aedes sp. demonstrates potential to adapt to warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {122}, number = {2}, pages = {e2418199122}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2418199122}, pmid = {39772738}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {DEB-2011147//NSF (NSF)/ ; R35GM133439//HHS | NIH (NIH)/ ; R01AI168097//HHS | NIH (NIH)/ ; R01AI102918//HHS | NIH (NIH)/ ; }, mesh = {*Aedes/genetics/physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Biological Evolution ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Genetic Variation ; Mosquito Vectors/genetics/physiology ; Thermotolerance/genetics ; Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate warming is expected to shift the distributions of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases, promoting expansions at cool range edges and contractions at warm range edges. However, whether mosquito populations could maintain their warm edges through evolutionary adaptation remains unknown. Here, we investigate the potential for thermal adaptation in Aedes sierrensis, a congener of the major disease vector species that experiences large thermal gradients in its native range, by assaying tolerance to prolonged and acute heat exposure, and its genetic basis in a diverse, field-derived population. We found pervasive evidence of heritable genetic variation in mosquito heat tolerance, and phenotypic trade-offs in tolerance to prolonged versus acute heat exposure. Further, we found genomic variation associated with prolonged heat tolerance was clustered in several regions of the genome, suggesting the presence of larger structural variants such as chromosomal inversions. A simple evolutionary model based on our data estimates that the maximum rate of evolutionary adaptation in mosquito heat tolerance will exceed the projected rate of climate warming, implying the potential for mosquitoes to track warming via genetic adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid39772178, year = {2024}, author = {Branda, F and Cella, E and Scarpa, F and Slavov, SN and Bevivino, A and Moretti, R and Degafu, AL and Pecchia, L and Rizzo, A and Defilippo, F and Moreno, A and Ceccarelli, G and Alcantara, LCJ and Ferreira, A and Ciccozzi, M and Giovanetti, M}, title = {Wolbachia-Based Approaches to Controlling Mosquito-Borne Viral Threats: Innovations, AI Integration, and Future Directions in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Viruses}, volume = {16}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {39772178}, issn = {1999-4915}, mesh = {*Wolbachia/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Animals ; *Mosquito Control/methods ; *Mosquito Vectors/microbiology/virology ; *Vector Borne Diseases/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Humans ; Zika Virus Infection/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Culicidae/virology/microbiology ; Dengue/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Aedes/microbiology/virology ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Wolbachia-based mosquito control strategies have gained significant attention as a sustainable approach to reduce the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. These endosymbiotic bacteria can limit the ability of mosquitoes to transmit pathogens, offering a promising alternative to traditional chemical-based interventions. With the growing impact of climate change on mosquito population dynamics and disease transmission, Wolbachia interventions represent an adaptable and resilient strategy for mitigating the public health burden of vector-borne diseases. Changes in temperature, humidity, and rainfall patterns can alter mosquito breeding habitats and extend the geographical range of disease vectors, increasing the urgency for effective control measures. This review highlights innovations in Wolbachia-based mosquito control and explores future directions in the context of climate change. It emphasizes the integration of Wolbachia with other biological approaches and the need for multidisciplinary efforts to address climate-amplified disease risks. As ecosystems shift, Wolbachia interventions could be crucial in reducing mosquito-borne diseases, especially in vulnerable regions. AI integration in Wolbachia research presents opportunities to enhance mosquito control strategies by modeling ecological data, predicting mosquito dynamics, and optimizing intervention outcomes. Key areas include refining release strategies, real-time monitoring, and scaling interventions. Future opportunities lie in advancing AI-driven approaches for integrating Wolbachia with other vector control measures, promoting adaptive, data-driven responses to climate-amplified disease transmission.}, }
@article {pmid39769614, year = {2024}, author = {Yu, Y and Li, Z}, title = {Predicting the Potential Distribution of Cheirotonus jansoni (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {39769614}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {32070471 and 31702039//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2023GDASQNRC-0209//GDAS Special Project of Youth Talent/ ; 2023A04J1483//Guangzhou Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation/ ; //Project of the Guangdong Forestry Bureau (2023 Wildlife monitoring program)/ ; }, abstract = {Cheirotonus jansoni (Jordan, 1898), a beetle species of ecological and ornamental significance, is predominantly found in southern China. With limited dispersal ability, it is classified as a Class 2 protected species in China. In this study, the widely employed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and the ensemble Biomod2 model were applied to simulate C. jansoni habitat suitability in China under current environmental conditions based on available distribution data and multiple environmental variables. The optimized MaxEnt model demonstrated improved accuracy and robust predictive capabilities, making it the preferred choice for simulating dynamic changes in potentially suitable habitats for C. jansoni under future climate scenarios. Protection gaps were further identified through analyses of the overlap between nature reserves and highly suitable areas for C. jansoni. The established models indicated that this species primarily resides in southeastern mountainous regions of China below 2000 m, with a preferred altitude of 1000-2000 m. Future climate scenarios suggest a reduction in the overall suitable habitat for C. jansoni with an increase in temperature, underscoring the urgent need for enhanced conservation efforts for this beetle species.}, }
@article {pmid39769532, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, L and Yang, C and Xie, G and Wang, P and Wang, W}, title = {Assessment of the Potential Suitable Habitat of Apriona rugicollis Chevrolat, 1852 (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) Under Climate Change and Human Activities Based on the Biomod2 Ensemble Model.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {39769532}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2024AFB254//Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province/ ; 31672327//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Effective use of species distribution models can assess the risk of spreading forest pests. In this study, based on 434 occurrence records and eight environmental variables, an ensemble model was applied to identify key environmental factors affecting the distribution of Apriona rugicollis Chevrolat, 1852 and predict its potential habitat and its relative areas of change under current and future climatic conditions. The results indicate that humidity, solar radiation, topography, and human activities were the main factors influencing the distribution of A. rugicollis. Under the current climate scenario, suitable habitats are mainly concentrated in East Asia, including North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Myanmar, Vietnam, and China. Under future climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitat for A. rugicollis gradually increases, especially in China and Japan, which are at high risk of spreading. In addition, the suitable habitat of A. rugicollis will expand northeastward to higher latitudes. The results of this study provide an important scientific basis for policymakers to formulate strategies for monitoring and controlling A. rugicollis in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39767407, year = {2024}, author = {Brink, N and Mansoor, K and Swiers, J and Lakhoo, DP and Parker, C and Nakstad, B and Sawry, S and Aunan, K and Otto, IM and Chersich, MF}, title = {Scoping Review of Climate Change Adaptation Interventions for Health: Implications for Policy and Practice.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {39767407}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {101003966//European Union Horizon 2020/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Health Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change is among the greatest threats to health in the 21st century, requiring the urgent scaling-up of adaptation interventions. We aim to summarise adaptation interventions that were funded by the Belmont Forum and the European Union, the largest global funders of climate change and health research. A systematic search was conducted (updated February 2023) to identify articles on adaptation interventions for health within this funding network. The data extracted included study characteristics, types of interventions, and study outcomes. The results were synthesised narratively within the PRISMA-ScR guidelines. A total of 197 articles were screened, with 37 reporting on adaptation interventions. The majority of interventions focused on the general population (n = 17), with few studies examining high-risk populations such as pregnant women and children (n = 4) or migrants (n = 0). Targeted interventions were mostly aimed at behavioural change (n = 8) and health system strengthening (n = 6), while interventions with mitigation co-benefits such as nature-based solutions (n = 1) or the built environment (n = 0) were limited. The most studied climate change hazard was extreme heat (n = 26). Several studies reported promising findings, principally regarding interventions to counter heat impacts on workers and pregnant women and improving risk awareness in communities. These findings provide a platform on which to expand research and public health interventions for safeguarding public health from the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39767390, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, J and DasSarma, S}, title = {Contributions of Medical Greenhouse Gases to Climate Change and Their Possible Alternatives.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph21121548}, pmid = {39767390}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Global Warming ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; }, abstract = {Considerable attention has recently been given to the contribution of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the healthcare sector to climate change. GHGs used in medical practice are regularly released into the atmosphere and contribute to elevations in global temperatures that produce detrimental effects on the environment and human health. Consequently, a comprehensive assessment of their global warming potential over 100 years (GWP) characteristics, and clinical uses, many of which have evaded scrutiny from policy makers due to their medical necessity, is needed. Of major interest are volatile anesthetics, analgesics, and inhalers, as well as fluorinated gases used as tamponades in retinal detachment surgery. In this review, we conducted a literature search from July to September 2024 on medical greenhouse gases and calculated estimates of these gases' GHG emissions in metric tons CO2 equivalent (MTCO2e) and their relative GWP. Notably, the anesthetics desflurane and nitrous oxide contribute the most emissions out of the major medical GHGs, equivalent to driving 12 million gasoline-powered cars annually in the US. Retinal tamponade gases have markedly high GWP up to 23,500 times compared to CO2 and long atmospheric lifetimes up to 10,000 years, thus bearing the potential to contribute to climate change in the long term. This review provides the basis for discussions on examining the environmental impacts of medical gases with high GWP, determining whether alternatives may be available, and reducing emissions while maintaining or even improving patient care.}, }
@article {pmid39765755, year = {2024}, author = {Hurtado-Bautista, E and Islas-Robles, A and Moreno-Hagelsieb, G and Olmedo-Alvarez, G}, title = {Thermal Plasticity and Evolutionary Constraints in Bacillus: Implications for Climate Change Adaptation.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology13121088}, pmid = {39765755}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {The ongoing rise in global temperatures poses significant challenges to ecosystems, particularly impacting bacterial communities that are central to biogeochemical cycles. The resilience of wild mesophilic bacteria to temperature increases of 2-4 °C remains poorly understood. In this study, we conducted experimental evolution on six wild Bacillus strains from two lineages (Bacillus cereus and Bacillus subtilis) to examine their thermal adaptation strategies. We exposed the bacteria to gradually increasing temperatures to assess their thermal plasticity, focusing on the genetic mechanisms underlying adaptation. While B. subtilis lineages improved growth at highly critical temperatures, only one increased its thermal niche to 4 °C above their natural range. This finding is concerning given climate change projections. B. cereus strains exhibited higher mutation rates but were not able to grow at increasing temperatures, while B. subtilis required fewer genetic changes to increase heat tolerance, indicating distinct adaptive strategies. We observed convergent evolution in five evolved lines, with mutations in genes involved in c-di-AMP synthesis, which is crucial for potassium transport, implicating this chemical messenger for the first time in heat tolerance. These insights highlight the vulnerability of bacteria to climate change and underscore the importance of genetic background in shaping thermal adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid39765448, year = {2025}, author = {Gonzalez, A and Sim, A}, title = {From conflict to care: Reframing our understanding and response to adverse childhood experiences in the polycrisis era of war, displacement, and climate change.}, journal = {Child abuse &amp; neglect}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {107225}, doi = {10.1016/j.chiabu.2024.107225}, pmid = {39765448}, issn = {1873-7757}, }
@article {pmid39765406, year = {2025}, author = {Cai, Y and Irie, H and Damiani, A and Itahashi, S and Takemura, T and Khatri, P}, title = {Corrigendum to "Detectability of the potential climate change effect on transboundary air pollution pathways in the downwind area of China" [Sci. Total Environ. 939 (2024) 173490].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {178356}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178356}, pmid = {39765406}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid39765175, year = {2025}, author = {Rodriguez-Flores, S and Muñoz-Robles, C and Quevedo Tiznado, JA and Julio-Miranda, P}, title = {Assessment of watershed health, integrating environmental, social, and climate change criteria into a fuzzy logic framework.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {960}, number = {}, pages = {178316}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178316}, pmid = {39765175}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Spatio-temporal analyses of environmental and social criteria in the context of climate change, facilitate understanding of how historical and current conditions have influenced watershed health. Previous studies have analyzed watershed health, but very few have integrated fuzzy logic with the CRITIC method (Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation), which enables us to explore alternatives to improve watershed performance. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in watershed health through historical and projected climate change scenario in the tropical Santa Cruz watershed in Aquismón, S.L.P., Mexico (1985-2027) considering environmental criteria (hydrological and sediment connectivity, runoff, flooding, drought, landscape fragmentation) and social criteria (indigenous population density, human impact on biodiversity, health index, income index, education index). The results indicate that spatio-temporal changes can alter the Watershed Health Score (WHS) from a value of 2.69 to 6.90, particularly in areas with precarious social conditions. Moreover, the study reveals how weighting evolves overt time, as seen in the case of landscape fragmentation, whose value increased 0.0113 to 0.254. This study shows how objective methods such as CRITIC can be integrated through fuzzy logic to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of watershed problems without the need for a large number of experts to weight the variables (subjective methods). This method can subsequently be applied and reproduced in different zones or watersheds where there is no certainty as to which criteria have the greatest influence and thus enable decisions for watershed management or restoration.}, }
@article {pmid39764609, year = {2025}, author = {Wu, X and MacKenzie, MD and Yang, J and Lan, G and Liu, Y}, title = {Climate Change Drives Changes in the Size and Composition of Fungal Communities Along the Soil-Seedling Continuum of Schima superba.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e17652}, doi = {10.1111/mec.17652}, pmid = {39764609}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {2022JBGS04//Research Project of Baishanzu National Park/ ; 2023JBGS06//Research Project of Baishanzu National Park/ ; //Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China/ ; 32071645//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32471613//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Plant microbiomes have a major influence on forest structure and functions, as well as tree fitness and evolution. However, a comprehensive understanding of variations in fungi along the soil-plant continuum, particularly within tree seedlings, under global warming is lacking. Here, we investigated the dynamics of fungal communities across different compartments (including bulk soil and rhizosphere soil) and plant organs (including the endosphere of roots, stems and leaves) of Schima superba seedlings exposed to experimental warming and drought using AccuITS absolute quantitative sequencing. Our results revealed that warming and drought significantly reduced the number of specific fungal amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) in the bulk soil and rhizosphere soil, respectively. Variations in fungal communities were mainly explained by compartments and plant organs, with the composition of endophytic fungal communities within leaves (primarily attributed to species gain or loss) being most influenced by climate change. Moreover, warming significantly reduced the migration of Ascomycota, soil saprotrophs, wood saprotrophs and yeasts from the bulk soil to the rhizosphere soil but increased that of plant pathogens from the roots to the stems. Drought significantly decreased the absolute abundances of Chytridiomycota, Glomeromycota and Rozellomycota, as well as the migration of ectomycorrhizal fungi from the bulk soil to the rhizosphere soil but increased that of plant pathogens. Warming could indirectly reduce leaf area by increasing the diversity of leaf pathogens. These findings have potential implications for enhancing the resilience and functioning of natural forest ecosystems under climate change through the manipulation of plant microbiomes, as demonstrated in agroecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid39764182, year = {2024}, author = {De Guzman, RB and Malik, M and Singh, N and Ho-Fung Loong, H and Mohan, A}, title = {Lung cancer in Asia: the impact of climate change.}, journal = {EClinicalMedicine}, volume = {74}, number = {}, pages = {102680}, pmid = {39764182}, issn = {2589-5370}, abstract = {The escalating global threat of climate change is becoming more evident. The climate crisis intersects with another major challenge: lung cancer. With Asia already bearing half the global cancer burden, the impact of climate-related events on health and on lung cancer care specifically are profound. There can potentially be critical implications on the overall landscape of lung cancer care-from screening and early detection, to management and treatment. In 2022, the deadliest flooding events occurred in India and Pakistan. Extreme weather events such as cyclones and typhoons cause damage to healthcare facilities and disrupt transportation networks. These impede access to vital treatments, causing delays, thus worsening patients' conditions. Most low and middle-income countries (LMICs) have disparities in healthcare infrastructure, resources, and workforce distribution that result in limited access to comprehensive care. This fragmented healthcare system in many Asian countries pose additional challenges. Adaptation and mitigation strategies are crucial for minimizing these impacts on cancer care. Addressing this complex interplay demands urgent, collaborative, and multidisciplinary efforts to safeguard healthcare and ensure access to uninterrupted care amid climate-related challenges.}, }
@article {pmid39763496, year = {2024}, author = {The Lancet Regional Health-Americas, }, title = {Navigating the intricate links between migration, climate change, and food insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {100967}, doi = {10.1016/j.lana.2024.100967}, pmid = {39763496}, issn = {2667-193X}, }
@article {pmid39763494, year = {2024}, author = {Batista, C and Knipper, M and Sedas, AC and Farante, SV and Wainstock, D and Borjas-Cavero, DB and Araya, KR and Arteaga España, JC and Yglesias-González, M}, title = {Climate change, migration, and health: perspectives from Latin America and the Caribbean.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {100926}, pmid = {39763494}, issn = {2667-193X}, abstract = {This article delves into the complex relationship between climate change, migration patterns, and health outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). While the severe impact of climate change on health in LAC is widely acknowledged, the article sheds light on the often-overlooked multiple effects on migration and the well-being of migrants. These impacts encompass poverty, food and water insecurity, and adverse physical and mental health outcomes. Our paper, guided by a rights-based framework, aims to identify key trends, challenges, and opportunities that can contribute to enhanced knowledge and generate questions to support future research. By emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts across sectors, including public and private entities, civil society, and academic institutions, we aim to address the nuanced intersections of climate change, migration, and health impacts in the region. This approach prioritises the needs of the most vulnerable, including migrants, establishing a framework for mitigation and adaptation that ensures equitable outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid39763488, year = {2024}, author = {Werner, K}, title = {The need to (climate) adapt: perceptions of German sports event planners on the imperative to address climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in sports and active living}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {1505372}, pmid = {39763488}, issn = {2624-9367}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: While the impact of anthropogenic climate change on sports and the subsequent need for adaptation to evolving climatic conditions are acknowledged, there remains a notable paucity of scientific inquiry within the realm of sports and sports event studies specifically addressing climate change and its ramifications for event planning and management. Existing studies predominantly stem from health, medical, weather and climate science and mostly focus on mega-events and elite athlete contexts. Moreover, they often only focus on one specific impact (e.g., extreme heat) without providing a comprehensive summary or overview of all eminent impacts, resulting risks and potential adaptation strategies. This study aims to explore how (German) sports events are impacted by climate change and identify measures for organizers to address these impacts.<br><br>METHODS: Following a comprehensive literature review, semi-structured interviews with event planners and organizers in Germany were conducted, ranging from small local events to weekly league competitions to national championships and major events.<br><br>RESULTS: The findings demonstrate that climate change adaptation is not yet a primary focus in the German sports event context. While some planners, especially those of large-scale events, have started implementing adaptation measures, others are only beginning to address the issue.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The study discusses the challenges that sports event organizers face in adjusting to the adverse effects of climate change and also examines specific adaptation strategies. The paper emphasizes the imperative for organizers to incorporate climate adaptation measures more effectively into routine event planning and management processes, and provides practical guidelines to achieve this integration.}, }
@article {pmid39762690, year = {2025}, author = {Ickovics, JR and Astbury, K and Campbell, M and Carrión, D and James, H and Sinha, N and Ong, A and Dubrow, R and Seto, KC and Vlahov, D}, title = {Indicators from The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change: Perspectives and Experience of City Leaders from 118 Cities.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39762690}, issn = {1468-2869}, abstract = {Rapid urbanization and escalating climate crises place cities at the critical juncture of environmental and public health action. Urban areas are home to more than half of the global population, contributing ~ 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Structured surveys were completed by 191 leaders in city governments and civil society from 118 cities in 52 countries (February-April 2024). Data aggregated to report one response per city. The survey utilized framework and indicators established by The 2023 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change. (1) Health hazards, exposures, impacts: two-thirds of cities identify extreme heat, flooding, and air pollution of "high concern," with health impacts for residents. (2) Adaptation, planning, resilience for health: Although 60% of cities have climate resilience plans, only 22.9% of cities have plans that concurrently address climate and health. Essential resources, municipal systems, and cross-sector collaborations are limited. (3) Mitigation actions and health co-benefits: 90% of cities reported air pollution from multiple sources; only 38% monitor air quality. Energy, food, and transportation systems are sub-optimal to mitigate climate concerns. (4) Economics and finance: 92% of cities report climate change-related economic losses; they plan to increase investments though resources remain constrained. (5) Public and political engagement: City leaders report minimal knowledge sharing among media, national/local government, scientific community, business community, and residents. Results underscore urgency for action and highlight solutions, providing a roadmap for cities to enhance resilience, safeguard public health, and promote social equity.}, }
@article {pmid39762384, year = {2025}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Earth shattered heat records in 2023 and 2024: is global warming speeding up?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39762384}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39761681, year = {2025}, author = {Hesselman, M and Patterson, DW and Phelan, AL and Meier, BM and Tahzib, F and Gostin, LO}, title = {Ensuring health at the heart of climate change Advisory Opinion.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02815-0}, pmid = {39761681}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid39759884, year = {2024}, author = {Gould, CA and Gentile, LE and Sbiroli, E and Berger, M and Philipsborn, R}, title = {Editorial: Climate change is a children's health hazard.}, journal = {Environmental research, health : ERH}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {040201}, pmid = {39759884}, issn = {2752-5309}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {As temperatures defy heat records, it is difficult to ignore the implications of climate change for public health, including impacts on population health more specifically. In short, climate change is happening now and presents an immediate hazard to human health on a global scale. Age-related health effects are an inalienable truth; physiology is relatively universal, and so are the ways in which our bodies respond to different types and levels of exposures to environmental stressors at different lifestages. Children are uniquely vulnerable to climate change stressors not only due to their physical and developmental immaturity, but also because they generally rely on adult caretakers for the fundamentals of survival. This article is the summary piece accompanying a special issue of Environmental Research: Health. It compiles new studies on children's vulnerability to climate change as well as studies exploring climate adaptation strategies to promote and protect child health. In this special issue, we see how these concepts are reflected repeatedly in empirical data domestically and internationally. For example, the special issue includes articles investigating linkages between climate change and health hazards such as asthma, injuries, and malnutrition. While local context is extremely important, many of the health effects may be extrapolated to other communities around the world.}, }
@article {pmid39759371, year = {2024}, author = {Khalaf, SMH and Alqahtani, MSM and Ali, MRM and Abdelalim, ITI and Hodhod, MS}, title = {Using MaxEnt modeling to analyze climate change impacts on Pseudomonas syringae van Hall, 1904 distribution on the global scale.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {24}, pages = {e41017}, pmid = {39759371}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Pseudomonas syringae is a pathogenic bacterium that poses a significant threat to global agriculture, necessitating a deeper understanding of its ecological dynamics in the context of global warming. This study investigates the current and projected future distribution of P. syringae, focusing on the climatic factors that influence its spread. To achieve this, we employed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to analyze species occurrence records alongside relevant climate data. The MaxEnt model was calibrated using 75 % of the occurrence data, with the remaining 25 % reserved for validation. The model's performance was meticulously assessed utilizing the area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS), resulting in an AUC score of 0.92, indicating excellent predictive capability. Our analysis identified key climatic parameters-temperature, precipitation, and humidity-that significantly affect the presence of P. syringae. Notably, our findings project an expansion of the bacterium's geographic range in the coming decades, with optimal conditions shifting toward the poles. This research underscores the significant influence of climate change on the distribution of P. syringae and provides valuable insights for developing targeted disease management strategies. The anticipated increase in bacterial infections in crops highlights the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate these effects.}, }
@article {pmid39759337, year = {2024}, author = {Belay, B and Diriba, D and Senbeta, F}, title = {Estimation of GHGs emission from traditional kilns charcoal production in northwestern Ethiopia: Implications on climate change.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {24}, pages = {e41015}, pmid = {39759337}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Rural areas in Ethiopia serve as the primary source of charcoal for urban populations, mainly produced using traditional kilns. However, this traditional method significantly contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exacerbating climate change and deforestation. While banning charcoal production is not currently feasible in Ethiopia because of the lack of affordable alternative energy sources (fuel), improving the efficiency of the traditional production system can mitigate the climate impact caused by charcoal production. This study assessed GHG emissions from traditional charcoal production in Awi zone, northwestern Ethiopia, using primary data from 18 sample kilns and secondary data from literature values. Employing a carbon balance approach, we estimated that, on average, 63 % of the original wood carbon was lost as gaseous products, resulting in 1671 g of carbon released per kg of charcoal produced in Awi zone. Our results also indicate that the average primary global warming impact (PGWI) for the 18 sample kilns was found to be 7.6 kg CO2-eq per kg of charcoal produced. Within this, the less efficient kiln production system, constituting 6 out of the sample, contributed 1.5 times more to global warming (9.43 kg CO2-eq per kg of charcoal produced) compared to the more efficient kiln system (6.25 kg CO2-eq per kg of charcoal produced for the same number of kilns). The policy implication of our finding is that any interventions aiming at mitigating climate change through reduction of GHG emissions from charcoal production must focus on improving the conversion efficiency of the traditional kiln currently used in addition to promoting the use of sustainably harvested wood.}, }
@article {pmid39759313, year = {2024}, author = {Usman, U and Yang, X and Nasir, MI}, title = {Role of climate change in economic uncertainty of Pakistan: New approach with qualitative comparative analysis.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {24}, pages = {e40889}, pmid = {39759313}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Globally, the effects of climate change are becoming more pronounced. Simultaneously, concerns associated with climate change effects have garnered widespread attention. The motive of this study is to know about the prominent antecedents of climate abnormalities in Pakistan, which may lead to economic abnormality and instability. The core objectives of this research are to: identify the abrupt changes in the climate of Pakistan, know about the level of disruption towards economic conditions due to climate change, detect the aggregate consequences of climate change on the economy of Pakistan, and finally take steps to hedge the abnormalities resulting from the abnormal climate changes. The accomplices employed qualitative methods to gather information. Fuzzy set Qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and semi-organized talks to thoroughly separate each plaintiff's extensive knowledge and opinions. For this study, a sample of 30 experienced economic analysts and climate change experts from Pakistan were chosen. The study's findings verified that several important antecedents, including the nature of climate change abnormalities, are identified in the research. This study explored methods to address these abnormalities and was conducted with professional guidance to meet sustainable development goals related to climate change. Scholars and experts are advised to adopt more systematic approaches to mitigate the risks due to the complex and variable combination situations that led to the climate change risks in Pakistan and the surrounding area.}, }
@article {pmid39758984, year = {2024}, author = {Ross, PM and Pine, C and Scanes, E and Byrne, M and O'Connor, WA and Gibbs, M and Parker, LM}, title = {Meta-analyses reveal climate change impacts on an ecologically and economically significant oyster in Australia.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {12}, pages = {110673}, pmid = {39758984}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Global oceans are warming and acidifying because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions that are anticipated to have cascading impacts on marine ecosystems and organisms, especially those essential for biodiversity and food security. Despite this concern, there remains some skepticism about the reproducibility and reliability of research done to predict future climate change impacts on marine organisms. Here, we present meta-analyses of over two decades of research on the climate change impacts on an ecologically and economically valuable Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata. We confirm with high confidence that ocean acidification (OA) has a significant impact on the size and mortality of offspring of S. glomerata, ocean warming (OW) impacts size, and transgenerational exposure of adults to OA has positive benefits for offspring. These meta-analyses reveal gaps in understanding of OW and transgenerational plasticity on an ecologically and economically significant oyster species to ensure sustainability of this iconic oyster in Australia.}, }
@article {pmid39758434, year = {2025}, author = {Wei, X and Bohnett, E and An, L}, title = {Assessing U.S. public perceptions of global warming using social survey and climate data.}, journal = {MethodsX}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {103081}, pmid = {39758434}, issn = {2215-0161}, abstract = {This paper presents a methodological approach for assessing the relationship between weather patterns, regional climate trends, and public perceptions of global warming in the United States with control of socioeconomic, political, and ideological variables. We combined social survey data from the Gallup Poll Social Series (GPSS) with environmental data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the PRISM Climate Group. Logistic regression models were employed, enhanced by Eigenvector Spatial Filtering (ESF) to address spatial autocorrelation. This approach allowed us to examine how both short-term weather conditions and long-term climate changes impact public concerns about global warming. Notably, the perception of warmer winters emerged as a critical factor influencing attitudes, highlighting the importance of perceived environmental changes in shaping public opinion.•We combined survey data on public perceptions with high-resolution weather and climate data.•We applied logistic regression models with Eigenvector Spatial Filtering to control for spatial autocorrelation.•Our analysis emphasized both physical climate measures and perceived climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid39757897, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, OR and Kaplan, IC and Hernvann, PY and Fulton, EA and Haltuch, MA and Harvey, CJ and Marshall, KN and Muhling, B and Norman, K and Pozo Buil, M and Rovellini, A and Samhouri, JF}, title = {Climate Change Influences via Species Distribution Shifts and Century-Scale Warming in an End-To-End California Current Ecosystem Model.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {e70021}, pmid = {39757897}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NA20OAR4310507//Climate Program Office/ ; 2019-69817//David and Lucile Packard Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Animals ; California ; *Fishes/physiology ; *Biomass ; Fisheries ; Temperature ; Models, Theoretical ; Climate Models ; Models, Biological ; Animal Distribution ; Global Warming ; Pacific Ocean ; }, abstract = {Climate change can impact marine ecosystems through many biological and ecological processes. Ecosystem models are one tool that can be used to simulate how the complex impacts of climate change may manifest in a warming world. In this study, we used an end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model to compare and contrast the effects of climate-driven species redistribution and projected temperature from three separate climate models on species of key commercial importance in the California Current Ecosystem. Adopting a scenario analysis approach, we used Atlantis to measure differences in the biomass, abundance, and weight at age of pelagic and demersal species among six simulations for the years 2013-2100 and tracked the implications of those changes for spatially defined California Current fishing fleets. The simulations varied in their use of forced climate-driven species distribution shifts, time-varying projections of ocean warming, or both. In general, the abundance and biomass of coastal pelagic species like Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) were more sensitive to projected climate change, while demersal groups like Dover sole (Microstomus pacificus) experienced smaller changes due to counteracting effects of spatial distribution change and metabolic effects of warming. Climate-driven species distribution shifts and the resulting changes in food web interactions were more influential than warming on end-of-century biomass and abundance patterns. Spatial projections of changes in fisheries catch did not always align with changes in abundance of their targeted species. This mismatch is likely due to species distribution shifts into or out of fishing areas and emphasizes the importance of a spatially explicit understanding of both climate change effects and fishing dynamics. We illuminate important biological and ecological pathways through which climate change acts in an ecosystem context and end with a discussion of potential management implications and future directions for climate change research using ecosystem models.}, }
@article {pmid39756840, year = {2025}, author = {The Lancet Haematology, }, title = {Haematology and climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Haematology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {e1}, doi = {10.1016/S2352-3026(24)00381-8}, pmid = {39756840}, issn = {2352-3026}, }
@article {pmid39755861, year = {2025}, author = {Motesaddi, S and Mohseni-Bandpei, A and Nasseri, M and Rafiee, M and Hashempour, Y}, title = {Climate change impact on water treatment plants: analysis of chlorophyll-a levels and process performance.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39755861}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {IR.SBMU.PHNS.REC.1395.6//Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change significantly impacts the risk of eutrophication and, consequently, chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations. Understanding the impact of water flows is a crucial first step in developing insights into future patterns of change and associated risks. In this study, the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)-a widely used daily downscaling method-is implemented to produce downscaled local climate variables, which serve as input for simulating future hydro-climate conditions using a hydrological model. The vulnerability of water quality, particularly Chl-a concentrations in the Latyan Dam and Tehranpars Water Treatment Plant (TWTP) is assessed through six fuzzy regression models under three scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Projections indicate an increase in minimum temperatures for the Jajrood watershed ranging from 92 to 93%. Seasonal forecasts suggest significant precipitation during the dry season. The HYMOD model predicts increases in streamflow of approximately 97%, 90%, and 92% by 2050 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively, indicating a heightened risk of flooding that poses economic, health, and environmental concerns. Among the six fuzzy regression models, FGR1, FGR3, and FGR4 demonstrated the most favorable results in modeling Chl-a output from the TWTP. In conclusion, while Chl-a concentrations in the effluent of the TWTP are only slightly influenced by climate change, the effects on streamflow patterns are significant. These findings highlight serious future water quality challenges and increased vulnerability of water resources due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39755721, year = {2025}, author = {Khalil, HH and Abdrabo, MA and Hassaan, MA and Elshemy, MM}, title = {Integrated approach for estimating climate change impacts on CO2 sink capacity of inland waterbodies using hydrodynamic modelling and GIS analysis.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {762}, pmid = {39755721}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {As one of their key regulatory ecosystem functions, inland lakes serve as CO2 sinks. The CO2 sink capacity of inland lakes depends on their water temperature and salinity as well as their water volume which are all highly sensitive to climate conditions. This paper aims to quantitatively estimate the change in the CO2 sink capacity of Wadi El-Rayan Lakes under climate change scenarios. For this purpose, an integrated approach combining CO2 solubility modelling, hydrodynamic simulations (Delft3D-FLOW) and GIS analysis was employed. According to the developed approach, CO2 solubility under variable temperature and salinity is mathematically modelled and this model is further used with the developed hydrodynamic model data for Wadi El-Rayan Lakes (temperature, salinity and water depth) to estimate their CO2 sink capacities. CO2 sink capacity is estimated for 2014 and 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Afterwards, the alteration in CO2 sink capacities due to climate change is determined using the modified hydrodynamic model. The results revealed that by 2050, the lakes would lose about 23-25% of their capacities compared to that of 2014 according to RCP 2.6 and 8.5, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid39755063, year = {2025}, author = {Yamuza-Magdaleno, A and Jiménez-Ramos, R and Cavijoli-Bosch, J and Brun, FG and Egea, LG}, title = {Ocean acidification and global warming may favor blue carbon service in a Cymodocea nodosa community by modifying carbon metabolism and dissolved organic carbon fluxes.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {212}, number = {}, pages = {117501}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117501}, pmid = {39755063}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {Ocean acidification (OA) and global warming (GW) drive a variety of responses in seagrasses that may modify their carbon metabolism, including the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes and the organic carbon stocks in upper sediments. In a 45-day full-factorial mesocosm experiment simulating forecasted CO2 and temperature increase in a Cymodocea nodosa community, we found that net community production (NCP) was higher under OA conditions, particularly when combined with warming (i.e., synergistic effect). Moreover, under OA conditions, an increase in aboveground biomass and photosynthetic shoot area was recorded. Interestingly, DOC fluxes were reduced when exposed to OA; however, an increase occurred when both factors acted together (i.e., antagonistic effect), which was attributable to increased DOC release by plants. Our results suggest that C. nodosa populations in temperate latitude may favor blue carbon service in future scenarios of OA and GW by increasing the NCP, the DOC export with lower labile:recalcitrant ratio, and accumulating more organic carbon in upper sediments. These findings offer additional arguments for the urgent need to protect and conserve this valuable ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid39754884, year = {2024}, author = {Iqbal, S and Li, Y and Xu, J and Worthy, FR and Gui, H and Faraj, TK and Jones, DL and Bu, D}, title = {Smallest microplastics intensify maize yield decline, soil processes and consequent global warming potential.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {486}, number = {}, pages = {136993}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2024.136993}, pmid = {39754884}, issn = {1873-3336}, abstract = {Microplastic pollution seriously affects global agroecosystems, strongly influencing soil processes and crop growth. Microplastics impact could be size-dependent, yet relevant field experiments are scarce. We conducted a field experiment in a soil-maize agroecosystem to assess interactions between microplastic types and sizes. Microplastics were added to soils used for maize cultivation: either polyethylene or polystyrene, of 75, 150, or 300 µm size. Overall, we found that microplastic contamination led to increased soil carbon, nitrogen and biogeochemical cycling. Polyethylene contamination was generally more detrimental than polystyrene. Smallest polyethylene microplastics (75 µm) were associated with two-fold raised CO2 and N2O emissions - hypothetically via raised microbial metabolic rates. Increased net greenhouse gases emissions were calculated to raise soil global warming potential of soils. We infer that MPs-associated emissions arose from altered soil processes. Polyethylene of 75 µm size caused the greatest reduction in soil carbon and nitrogen pools (1-1.5 %), with lesser impacts of larger microplastics. These smallest polyethylene microplastics caused the greatest declines in maize productivity (∼ 2-fold), but had no significant impact on harvest index. Scanning electron microscopy indicated that microplastics were taken up by the roots of maize plants, then also translocated to stems and leaves. These results raise serious concerns for the impact of microplastics pollution on future soil bio-geochemical cycling, food security and climate change. As microplastics will progressively degrade to smaller sizes, the environmental and agricultural impacts of current microplastics contamination of soils could increase over time; exacerbating potential planetary boundary threats.}, }
@article {pmid39754352, year = {2025}, author = {Rodriguez, MD and Bay, RA and Ruegg, KC}, title = {Telomere Length Differences Indicate Climate Change-Induced Stress and Population Decline in a Migratory Bird.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e17642}, doi = {10.1111/mec.17642}, pmid = {39754352}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {006784//National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program/ ; 62591-443863//National Geographic Society/ ; 1942313//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Genomic projections of (mal)adaptation under future climate change, known as genomic offset, faces limited application due to challenges in validating model predictions. Individuals inhabiting regions with high genomic offset are expected to experience increased levels of physiological stress as a result of climate change, but documenting such stress can be challenging in systems where experimental manipulations are not possible. One increasingly common method for documenting physiological costs associated with stress in individuals is to measure the relative length of telomeres-the repetitive regions on the caps of chromosomes that are known to shorten at faster rates in more adverse conditions. Here we combine models of genomic offsets with measures of telomere shortening in a migratory bird, the yellow warbler (Setophaga petechia), and find a strong correlation between genomic offset, telomere length and population decline. While further research is needed to fully understand these links, our results support the idea that birds in regions where climate change is happening faster are experiencing more stress and that such negative effects may help explain the observed population declines.}, }
@article {pmid39753724, year = {2025}, author = {Yang, K and Luo, K and Zhang, J and Qiu, B and Wang, F and Xiao, Q and Cao, J and He, Y and Yang, J}, title = {Estimating forest aboveground carbon sink based on landsat time series and its response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {589}, pmid = {39753724}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {32260390//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32260390//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32260390//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32260390//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32260390//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; YNWR-QNBJ-2020-164//"Young Top Talents" special project of the high-level talent training support program of Yunnan province, China, in 2020/ ; YNWR-QNBJ-2020-164//"Young Top Talents" special project of the high-level talent training support program of Yunnan province, China, in 2020/ ; YNWR-QNBJ-2020-164//"Young Top Talents" special project of the high-level talent training support program of Yunnan province, China, in 2020/ ; YNWR-QNBJ-2020-164//"Young Top Talents" special project of the high-level talent training support program of Yunnan province, China, in 2020/ ; YNWR-QNBJ-2020-164//"Young Top Talents" special project of the high-level talent training support program of Yunnan province, China, in 2020/ ; LXXK-2023Z06//Innovation Programs of Southwest Forestry University/ ; LXXK-2023Z06//Innovation Programs of Southwest Forestry University/ ; LXXK-2023Z06//Innovation Programs of Southwest Forestry University/ ; LXXK-2023Z06//Innovation Programs of Southwest Forestry University/ ; LXXK-2023Z06//Innovation Programs of Southwest Forestry University/ ; }, abstract = {Accurately estimating forest carbon sink and exploring their climate-driven mechanisms are critical to achieving carbon neutrality and sustainable development. Fewer studies have used machine learning-based dynamic models to estimate forest carbon sink. The climate-driven mechanisms in Shangri-La have yet to be explored. In this study, a genetic algorithm (GA) was used to optimize the parameters of random forest (RF) to establish dynamic models to estimate the carbon sink intensity (CSI) of Pinus densata in Shangri-La and analyze the combined effects of multi-climatic factors on CSI. We found that (1) GA can effectively improve the estimation accuracy of RF, the R[2] can be improved by up to 34.8%, and the optimal GA-RF model R[2] is 0.83. (2) The CSI of Pinus densata in Shangri-La was 0.45-0.72 t C·hm[- 2] from 1987 to 2017. (3) Precipitation has the most significant effect on CSI. The combined weak drive of precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation on CSI was the most dominant drive for Pinus densata CSI. These results indicate that dynamic models can be used for large-scale long-term estimation of carbon sink in highland forest, providing a feasible method. Clarifying the driving mechanism will provide a scientific basis for forest resource management.}, }
@article {pmid39753640, year = {2025}, author = {Lee, SH and An, LS and Kim, HK}, title = {Risk-based bridge life cycle cost and environmental impact assessment considering climate change effects.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {725}, pmid = {39753640}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {RS-2023-00250727//Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement/ ; RS-2023-00250727//Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement/ ; RS-2023-00250727//Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement/ ; }, abstract = {To enhance sustainability and resilience against climate change in infrastructure, a quantitative evaluation of both environmental impact and cost is important within a life cycle framework. Climate change effects can lead performance deterioration in bridge components during their operational phase, highlighting the necessity for a risk-based evaluation process aligned with maintenance strategies. This study employs a two-phase life cycle assessments (LCA) framework. First, risk assessments are conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on steel plate girder bridges and prestressed concrete (PSC) girder bridges under identical structural conditions. The reduction in flexural strength of steel plate girders and PSC girders due to changes in environmental variables such as temperature and relative humidity, induced by various climate change scenarios, was evaluated analytically. Subsequently, life cycle environmental impact and cost assessments were performed, including maintenance outcomes derived from risk assessments. The findings revealed that the environmental impact and cost could increase by approximately 12.4% when climate change is considered, compared to scenarios where it is not taken into account. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the key factors influencing environmental impact and cost. The analysis determined that the frequency of preventive maintenance, the recycling rate, and environmental cost coefficient weight in the life cycle assessment significantly affected the results.}, }
@article {pmid39753474, year = {2024}, author = {Jia, F and Cai, W and Geng, T and Gan, B and Zhong, W and Wu, L and McPhaden, MJ}, title = {Transition from multi-year La Niña to strong El Niño rare but increased under global warming.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2024.12.034}, pmid = {39753474}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits a strong asymmetry between warm El Niño and cold La Niña in amplitude and temporal evolution. An El Niño often leads to a heat discharge in the equatorial Pacific conducive to its rapid termination and transition to a La Niña, whereas a La Niña persists and recharges the equatorial Pacific for consecutive years preconditioning development of a subsequent El Niño, as occurred in 2020-2023. Whether the multiyear-long heat recharge increases the likelihood of a transition to a strong El Niño remains unknown. Here, we show that such a transition is rare but more likely under transient greenhouse warming. In boreal spring and early summer after a multiyear La Niña, despite a substantial recharge in the western Pacific, thermocline remains anomalously shallow and sea surface temperature (SST) remains anomalously cold in the equatorial central Pacific. The cold conditions inhibit an ensuing eastward movement of atmosphere deep convection out of the warm western Pacific, delaying onset of ocean-atmosphere coupling, and hence growth of an El Niño. Under a high emission scenario, such a transition is still rare but more than twice as likely. The projected change is consistent with a projected weakening in climatological zonal SST gradient that promotes the eastward movement of atmosphere convection and a projected intensification in upper-ocean stratification of the equatorial Pacific that enhances the ocean-atmosphere coupling. Our result provides predictive insight of El Niño after multiyear La Niña, and advances our understanding of ENSO transition under greenhouse warming.}, }
@article {pmid39752940, year = {2025}, author = {Ricciardi, G and Callegari, G and Leone, MF}, title = {20∗20∗60: A multilevel climate change analysis framework.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123733}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123733}, pmid = {39752940}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Cities worldwide have established plans and policies to achieve climate-neutral and climate-resilient objectives in recent decades. Researches have demonstrated that Climate Change Action Plans generally fail to include mitigation and adaptation approaches in their planning processes, despite their importance. A proposed multilevel assessment of Climate Change Action Plans, urban regeneration, and building projects was used to analyze the ten cities most sustainable in terms of developing environmental strategies, including local climate action to determine the degree of adaptation and mitigation integration in cutting-edge contexts and to identify measures that show synergies and co-benefits for urban design practices. Climate Change Action Plans, urban regeneration and building projects have been evaluated through scoring methods to determine firstly the level of integration among adaptation and mitigation and secondly the most used urban design solutions that addresses both approaches. Almost all of Climate Change Action Plans have "moderate" and "early" integration, with the most advanced in North American cities including Toronto, Montreal, New York, and San Francisco. Climate Change Action Plans partly influence urban regeneration projects. Among the cities studied, Royal Seaport and Hammarby Sjöstad in Stockholm stand out as the most advanced in terms of including measures for both mitigating and adapting to climate change, as well as the extent of activities carried out. North American building projects have the highest adaptation and mitigation strategies. Climate Change Action Plans, urban regeneration initiatives, and building projects analyzed have displayed measures to include both climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation benefits into urban design.}, }
@article {pmid39752819, year = {2025}, author = {Liu, J and Liu, X and Zhu, A and Wang, X and Yu, Q and Chen, L and Al-Musawi, TJ and Aasal, M}, title = {Prioritization of climate change mitigation strategies for coastal regions using the Analytic Hierarchy Process.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {212}, number = {}, pages = {117516}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117516}, pmid = {39752819}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {This study utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to prioritize climate change mitigation strategies for coastal regions systematically. The AHP, a robust data-driven decision-making framework, was employed to evaluate five strategies: Mangrove Restoration, Zoning and Building Codes, Seawalls, Coral Reef Protection, and Relocation Programs. The analysis revealed that Mangrove Restoration emerged as the most effective strategy, achieving the highest score of 0.65 due to its significant environmental impact and long-term sustainability. Zoning and Building Codes followed closely with a score of 0.58, showcasing their cost-effectiveness and regulatory advantages. While effective in urban areas, Seawalls ranked third with a score of 0.48, indicating limitations in social acceptance. Coral Reef Protection and Relocation Programs scored 0.46 and 0.38, respectively, reflecting their higher costs and resource intensity. The findings underscored the importance of prioritizing strategies that balance ecological health and socio-economic feasibility, offering actionable recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders. This research identifies key challenges such as balancing ecological health, socio-economic feasibility, and resource limitations. Our framework addresses these by integrating multi-criteria evaluation, presenting novel prioritization insights for climate adaptation strategies in coastal regions.}, }
@article {pmid39752384, year = {2025}, author = {Bajaj, K and Mehrabi, Z and Kastner, T and Jägermeyr, J and Müller, C and Schwarzmüller, F and Hertel, TW and Ramankutty, N}, title = {Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {e0314722}, pmid = {39752384}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; *Commerce ; Humans ; *Developing Countries ; Food Security ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/economics ; }, abstract = {The risk of national food supply disruptions is linked to both domestic production and food imports. But assessments of climate change risks for food systems typically focus on the impacts on domestic production, ignoring climate impacts in supplying regions. Here, we use global crop modeling data in combination with current trade flows to evaluate potential climate change impacts on national food supply, comparing impacts on domestic production alone (domestic production impacts) to impacts considering how climate change impacts production in all source regions (consumption impact). Under 2°C additional global mean warming over present day, our analysis highlights that climate impacts on national supply are aggravated for 53% high income and 56% upper medium income countries and mitigated for 60% low- and 71% low-medium income countries under consumption-based impacts compared to domestic impacts alone. We find that many countries are reliant on a few mega-exporters who mediate these climate impacts. Managing the risk of climate change for national food security requires a global perspective, considering not only how national production is affected, but also how climate change affects trading partners.}, }
@article {pmid39752293, year = {2025}, author = {Mengesha, NA and Sarnyai, Z}, title = {The mental health impact of climate change on Pacific Islanders: A systematic review focused on sea level rise and extreme weather events.}, journal = {Australasian psychiatry : bulletin of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {10398562241312865}, doi = {10.1177/10398562241312865}, pmid = {39752293}, issn = {1440-1665}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This systematic review investigates the impact of climate change on the mental health of Pacific Island Nations (PINs), with a focus on identifying culturally tailored interventions and appropriate research methodologies to address these impacts.<br><br>METHOD: A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature up to May 18, 2024, was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) protocol and the Population, Interest Area, and Context (PICo) framework. Empirical studies on the impact of climate change on mental health in PINs were evaluated by using the Quality Assessment Tool for Studies with Diverse Designs (QATSDD).<br><br>RESULTS: Six studies from the Solomon Islands, Cook Islands, and Tuvalu were identified, indicating significant mental health impacts from sea level rise (SLR) and extreme weather events with compounding and mitigating effects across diverse groups. The Skills for Life Adjustment and Resilience (SOLAR) program was highlighted as a promising culturally adapted intervention.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change significantly impacts mental health, particularly in PIN communities facing SLR and Extreme Weather Events (EWE). Culturally sensitive interventions, local knowledge, and further research are vital to mitigate these effects and support well-being.}, }
@article {pmid39752257, year = {2025}, author = {Nieves, M and Jansen, K}, title = {Worry related to climate change in Brazilian adults.}, journal = {Trends in psychiatry and psychotherapy}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.47626/2237-6089-2024-0905}, pmid = {39752257}, issn = {2238-0019}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is happening, and feeling anxiety can be seen as a natural response to it. Climate anxiety is the worry about the climate crisis and could be related to specific emotions and thoughts. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of worry about climate change, and to describe the emotions and thoughts associated to it in Brazilian adults.<br><br>METHOD: Cross-sectional study with participants aged between 18-42 years (n=323). Data were collected online using the questionnaire developed by Hickman and colleagues, which assesses the worry, thoughts and feelings about climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: 88.5% were worried about climate change. The feelings of sadness, powerlessness, fear and anxiety were reported more often among those who were worried. The most frequent thoughts were: "People have failed to take care of the planet", "The future is frightening", "My family's security will be threatened" and "Humanity is doomed".<br><br>DISCUSSION: In this sample, the majority of the individuals were concerned about climate change, and they showed more negative emotions and thoughts when compared to individuals that were not concerned. Future studies should take care to not understand natural worries and anxiety responses to climate change as pathological.}, }
@article {pmid39748788, year = {2025}, author = {Karl, S and Brandt, L and Luykx, JJ and Dom, G}, title = {Impact of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution on the incidence and manifestation of depressive and anxiety disorders.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychiatry}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {35-40}, doi = {10.1097/YCO.0000000000000971}, pmid = {39748788}, issn = {1473-6578}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Anxiety Disorders/epidemiology ; *Biodiversity ; *Depressive Disorder/epidemiology/etiology ; *Environmental Pollution/adverse effects ; Incidence ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution present a major threat to health. Although emphasis has been put on physical health impacts, evidence on the mental health consequences is now also accumulating quickly. Given the rapid developments in the field, this article provides an expert opinion on the emerging research.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Umbrella reviews are adding more high-level evidence on the associations of environmental crises and mental health. Individual studies are focusing on specific aspects of environmental crises and mental health, shedding light on potential direct links between climate change and mental health. Further studies are aiming to quantify individual burden and societal cost of the environmental crises and mental health nexus and to identify those most at risk for negative mental health outcomes. Many studies focus on eco-emotions, attempting to characterize them further, provide tools for quantification, and to determine their effect on functioning.<br><br>SUMMARY: Although the accumulating research on the impacts of environmental change on depression and anxiety is filling important knowledge gaps, important questions remain, for example concerning the risk factors for the development of mental health disorders caused by ecological crises, tailored preventive strategies, and concerning the effects of biodiversity loss on mental health. Health systems need to further develop responses to these environmental crises.}, }
@article {pmid39748787, year = {2025}, author = {Gondek, TM}, title = {Climate change, socioeconomic transition and mental health.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychiatry}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1097/YCO.0000000000000974}, pmid = {39748787}, issn = {1473-6578}, }
@article {pmid39748023, year = {2025}, author = {Khajehali, M and Safavi, HR and Nikoo, MR and Najafi, MR and Alizadeh-Sh, R}, title = {A copula-based multivariate flood frequency analysis under climate change effects.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {146}, pmid = {39748023}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Floods are among the most severe natural hazards, causing substantial damage and affecting millions of lives. These events are inherently multi-dimensional, requiring analysis across multiple factors. Traditional research often uses a bivariate framework relying on historical data, but climate change is expected to influence flood frequency analysis and flood system design in the future. This study assesses the projected changes in flood characteristics based on eight downscaled and bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The analysis considers two emission scenarios, including SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for far-future (2070-2100), mid-term future (2040-2070), and historical (1982-2012) periods. Downscaled GCM outputs are utilized as predictors of the machine learning model to simulate daily streamflow. Then, a trivariate copula-based framework assesses flood events in terms of duration, volume, and flood peak in the Kan River basin, Iran. These analyses are carried out using the hierarchical Archimedean copula in three structures, and their accuracy in estimating the flood frequencies is ultimately compared. The results show that a heterogeneous asymmetric copula offers more flexibility to capture varying degrees of asymmetry across different parts of the distribution, leading to more accurate modeling results compared to homogeneous asymmetric and symmetric copulas. Also it has been found that climate change can influence the trivariate joint return periods, particularly in the far future. In other words, flood frequency may increase by approximately 50% in some cases in the far future compared to the mid-term future and historical period. This demonstrates that flood characteristics are expected to show nonstationary behavior in the future as a result of climate change. The results provide insightful information for managing and accessing flood risk in a dynamic environment.}, }
@article {pmid39746258, year = {2025}, author = {Filho, WL and Lütz, JM and Totin, E and Ayal, D and Mendy, E}, title = {Obstacles to implementing indigenous knowledge in climate change adaptation in Africa.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123678}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123678}, pmid = {39746258}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {In a climate change context, indigenous and local knowledge includes the use of traditional practices, crop varieties, and land management techniques that have evolved in response to local climatic conditions. This inter-generational transfer of knowledge is crucial for maintaining and adapting these practices to meet the challenges posed by climate change. Despite the many advantages of using indigenous knowledge in climate change adaptation in Africa, its implementation faces several obstacles. Understanding these obstacles is crucial for integrating indigenous knowledge with scientific approaches to enhance climate resilience effectively. This paper offers an analysis of some of the most critical obstacles that hinder the use of indigenous and local knowledge in climate change adaptation in African countries.}, }
@article {pmid39746200, year = {2024}, author = {Editors, T}, title = {Vote in November for Science: Kamala Harris has plans to improve health, boost the economy and mitigate climate change. Donald Trump has threats and a dangerous record.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {331}, number = {4}, pages = {56}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican112024-5YgImqHdG6rmUBPlrrmMCF}, pmid = {39746200}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39745966, year = {2025}, author = {Voosen, P}, title = {Earth's clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {387}, number = {6729}, pages = {17}, doi = {10.1126/science.adv6047}, pmid = {39745966}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Narrowing storm bands may be a surprising and dangerous new feedback of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39744323, year = {2024}, author = {Agrawal, N and Chunletia, RS and Badigannavar, AM and Mondal, S}, title = {Role of alanine aminotransferase in crop resilience to climate change: a critical review.}, journal = {Physiology and molecular biology of plants : an international journal of functional plant biology}, volume = {30}, number = {12}, pages = {1935-1953}, pmid = {39744323}, issn = {0971-5894}, abstract = {Alanine aminotransferase (AlaAT) is a crucial enzyme present in various isoforms. It is playing vital role in both humans and plants. This concise review focuses on the role of AlaAT in plants, particularly on preharvest sprouting, hypoxia, nitrogen use efficiency, abiotic and biotic stress tolerance. The molecular genetics of AlaAT, including gene identification and the impact on plant yield and its physiology, is discussed. Notably, the major dormancy gene Qsd1/SD1 governing AlaAT synthesis has been characterized and cloned in various crops. This review emphasizes the current understanding of AlaAT and its influence on plants, covering mechanisms regulating preharvest sprouting, hypoxia, drought tolerance, salt tolerance, biotic resistance and nitrogen use efficiency. Identifying a protein with multidimensional roles in crop plants is very important. Modern biotechnological approaches can alter such candidate gene/protein for superior varieties development. Overall, the review gives an understanding of the uncovered area of AlaAT and the challenge of climatic change triggers in plants. In the future, the potential of genome editing in AlaAT through enhancer insertion and rapid stabilization through speed breeding will impart resilience to crop plants against climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39742829, year = {2024}, author = {Heo, S and Choi, HM and D Berman, J and Bell, ML}, title = {Temperature, violent crime, climate change, and vulnerability factors in 44 United States cities.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {195}, number = {}, pages = {109246}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2024.109246}, pmid = {39742829}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Biological and psychological theories suggest complex impacts of heat on aggression and violence. Most previous studies considered temporal intervals of months to years and assumed linear associations. Evidence is needed on daily impacts of temperature on crime, applying non-linear models across different locations. This observational study examined non-linear relationships between daily summer temperature (May-September) and violent crime in 44 cities across 33 US states, 2005-2022. We calculated city-specific average temperature for the event day and previous day (lag0-1) and daily temperature anomalies (deviation from 1985 to 2010 average) using PRISM data. The Uniform Crime Reporting Program data were used to calculate daily city-specific number of violent crimes (n = 2,447,458 incidents). Generalized additive modeling was used to estimate relative risks (RRs) of violent crime. We identified three distinctive shapes (J-shaped, inverted J-shaped, linear) for relationships. The inverted J-shaped curve, indicating higher crime rates at high temperatures below extremely hot temperatures, was most predominant (26 cities). Across all cities, violent crime was 1.03 times higher at high compared to moderate temperatures (90th vs. 50th percentiles) (RR 1.03, 95 % CI: 1.02-1.04). Violent crime was also higher at moderate compared to cold temperatures (50th vs. 10th percentiles) [RR 1.04 (95 % CI: 1.03-1.06)], whereas risk did not differ between extremely high and hot temperature (99th vs. 90th percentiles). Risk during hot days versus moderate temperature days was significantly lower for cities with lower latitude, higher median temperature, higher urban greenspace, and higher percentage of occupied housing units with air conditioners. Risk was higher in cities with 90th percentile temperature anomalies that deviated from the historical temperature record, suggesting implications of climate change on heat-related violence. High daily temperatures are associated with violent crime with differences across locations. Disparities in risks by city-level social and environmental characteristics have implications for climate change strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39742763, year = {2024}, author = {Danisman, GO and Bilyay-Erdogan, S and Demir, E}, title = {Economic uncertainty and climate change exposure.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123760}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123760}, pmid = {39742763}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This paper explores how economic uncertainty affects firms' climate change exposure. We use an extensive sample from 24 countries from 2002 to 2021. Employing a novel measure of firm-level climate change exposure developed by Sautner et al. (2023b), we empirically demonstrate that prior to the Paris Agreement in 2015, economic uncertainty leads to a decrease in climate change disclosures. However, after the Paris Agreement, our findings reveal a positive association between economic uncertainty and climate change exposure. The positive disclosure effect is primarily driven by higher climate-related opportunities and regulatory exposures. Our findings are robust when we employ alternative definitions for economic uncertainty, alternative samples, additional firm-level and country-level control variables, and alternative methodologies. We find that institutional and foreign ownership positively moderates the association between economic uncertainty and climate change exposure after the Paris Agreement. Further analysis investigates the moderating impact of country-level environmental performance indicators. We present novel empirical evidence suggesting that firms operating in countries with less climate vulnerability, higher readiness, more stringent environmental policies, superior climate protection performance, and higher environmental litigation risk tend to have higher climate change exposure in uncertain times.}, }
@article {pmid39742527, year = {2024}, author = {Monteiro, JCL and Ribeiro, SP and Vieira Duarte, R and Lira-Noriega, A and Rojas-Soto, OR and Carneiro, M and Reis, AB and Coura-Vital, W}, title = {The Human Footprint and Climate Change Shape Current and Future Scenarios of Visceral Leishmaniasis Distribution in Doce River Basin in Brazil.}, journal = {The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.4269/ajtmh.24-0442}, pmid = {39742527}, issn = {1476-1645}, abstract = {The identification of factors that influence the distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is key for future surveillance and control. This study sought to understand how environmental and climate variables can interfere with VL expansion in the Doce River basin located in Brazil. This ecological study explored the influence of anthropogenic, environmental, and climatic factors on VL expansion. Ecological niche modeling was used to assess the current situation and predict the future spread of the disease. The study used 855 human cases of VL recorded in the Doce River basin from 2001-2018 and analyzed them within the context of climatic and environmental variables. To model the current and future distributions, MaxEnt with the kuenm R package was used. To model the future projections, the global climate model of the National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM-CM6-1) was used as well as two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP370 and SSP585) for 2021-2040 and 2061-2080. Variables that contributed to the VL distribution were the human footprint index (62.6%), isothermality (28.1%), precipitation during the wettest month (6.4%), and temperature during the hottest month (3.8%). Future climate change scenarios showed areas suitable for the disease increasing over time (by about 7% between 2021 and 2041 and about 12% between 2061 and 2080) and the maintenance of the disease in places already considered endemic. Our results demonstrate the importance of anthropic and climatic factors in VL expansion. We hope that these results will contribute to boosting surveillance and vector control programs along the Doce River basin.}, }
@article {pmid39741933, year = {2024}, author = {Ponte, N and Alves, F and Vidal, DG}, title = {"We are not ready for this": physicians' perceptions on climate change information and adaptation strategies - qualitative study in Portugal.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {1506120}, pmid = {39741933}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Portugal ; *Climate Change ; *Qualitative Research ; Male ; *Physicians/psychology ; Female ; *Health Policy ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; Adult ; Interviews as Topic ; Middle Aged ; Perception ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change presents several challenges to public health and its professionals. This article aims to fill a significant gap in the current literature by understanding physicians' perceptions of their role in educating others about health adaptation to climate change. It also explores their knowledge of health policies related to this issue in Portugal and their perceived influence on the development of adaptation policies at both local and national levels within the health sector.<br><br>METHODS: To this end, we applied a qualitative and case study approach, interviewing 13 physicians in Portugal, including general practitioners and specialists. The data was collected using a semi-structured interview script, and a content analysis was performed to categorize the responses and gain a comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon.<br><br>RESULTS: The main results of this study highlight the need for a more systematic approach to training physicians, including the relationship between climate change and health. Concerning policies, this research highlights the need for more consistent communication and precise guidelines for dealing with the impacts of climate change on public health.<br><br>CONCLUSION: As the first exploratory study focusing on Portuguese physicians, this research provides unique insights into their views on the potential to influence patient behavior and health policy. Importantly, it offers valuable recommendations for health policy strategies, particularly in awareness-raising and training plans for these professionals, thereby demonstrating the research's practical implications.}, }
@article {pmid39741276, year = {2024}, author = {Li, T and Guo, J and Hu, G and Cao, F and Su, H and Shen, M and Wang, H and You, M and Liu, Y and Gurr, GM and You, S}, title = {Zinc finger proteins facilitate adaptation of a global insect pest to climate change.}, journal = {BMC biology}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {303}, pmid = {39741276}, issn = {1741-7007}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Moths/physiology/genetics ; *Zinc Fingers ; Insect Proteins/metabolism/genetics ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Thermotolerance ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global climate change significantly impacts ecosystems, particularly through temperature fluctuations that affect insect physiology and behavior. As poikilotherms, insect pests such as the globally devastating diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella, are especially vulnerable to rising temperatures and extreme heat events, necessitating effective adaptive mechanisms.<br><br>RESULTS: Here we demonstrate the roles of zinc finger proteins (ZFPs) in mediating thermal adaptability in DBM. We utilized a comprehensive approach involving cloning and bioinformatics analysis of three ZFPs, PxZNF568, PxZNF93, and PxZNF266, measurement of their expression levels in hot-evolved and control strains, and assessment of catalase enzymatic activity and total antioxidant capacity. We also employed CRISPR/Cas9 technology to create five stable homozygous knockout strains to elucidate ZFP functions in high-temperature tolerance. Survival rates under high-temperature stress and the critical thermal maxima (CTMax) of the knockout strains were significantly lower than the wild-type strain, and exhibited marked decreases in antioxidant capacity.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Findings reveal the importance of ZFPs in thermal adaptability of DBM, contributing critical insights for future pest management strategies in the context of a warming climate and laying the foundation for further exploration of ZFP functionality in agricultural pest control.}, }
@article {pmid39740621, year = {2024}, author = {Vasilakou, K and Nimmegeers, P and Yao, Y and Billen, P and Van Passel, S}, title = {Global spatiotemporal characterization factors for freshwater eutrophication under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {959}, number = {}, pages = {178275}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178275}, pmid = {39740621}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Nutrient enrichment of water bodies can lead to eutrophication, which poses a global threat to freshwater ecosystems, affecting biodiversity and water quality. While human activities have accelerated eutrophication, climate change further complicates the dynamics of nutrient cycling and ecosystem responses. Here, we provide global, spatially explicit freshwater eutrophication characterization factors, at an annual resolution from 2021 up to 2099 based on eight different climate change scenarios. A substantial spatial and temporal variability is identified, with higher characterization factors observed in tropical and arid regions, as well as densely populated areas, revealing a location-specific influence of climate change on eutrophication impacts. A comparison between different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios suggests that climate change intensifies the eutrophication impact of phosphorus and its fluctuations, with hotspots identified in central and south America, Australia, southeastern Asia, central Africa and eastern Europe. Results highlight the importance of spatially- and temporally-explicit characterization factors, especially in prospective life cycle assessments. Finally, novel insights are provided into the complex interactions between nutrient fate, hydrological dynamics, and climate change, crucial for the development of phosphorus emission control strategies and the protection of freshwater ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid39740574, year = {2024}, author = {Yu, T and Wen, Y and Dong, PP and Sun, MK and Qian, SE and Schootman, M and Vaughn, MG and Xu, SL and Huang, HH and Shan, FW and Zhu, SF and Wang, JY and Li, C and Gui, ZH and Liu, RQ and Hu, LW and Lin, LZ and Lin, Z and Dong, GH}, title = {The association between anthropogenic heat and parent-report symptoms of childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in China: A novel perspective reflecting climate change.}, journal = {International journal of hygiene and environmental health}, volume = {264}, number = {}, pages = {114518}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijheh.2024.114518}, pmid = {39740574}, issn = {1618-131X}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change will have a negative impact on worldwide well-being over and above the direct consequences of rising average temperatures. But anthropogenic heat (AH) relationship with childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is unknown. To assess the relationship with AH exposure and childhood ADHD symptoms in the context of global climate change, this study was conducted in a cross-sectional survey from April 2012 to May 2018 in the northeastern, northwestern, and southern regions of China, with a total enrollment of 179,846 children aged 6-18 years. Exposure to AH was evaluated by gathering socioeconomic and energy usage data along with nighttime light data from satellites and data on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. This encompassed four types of AH exposure: industrial processes, transportation, buildings, and human metabolism. The statistical analysis used generalized linear mixed-effects modeling to determine the association between the types of AH exposure and childhood ADHD symptoms. The mean (SD) age of the 179,846 study participants was 11.7 (2.9) years, and 7343 participants (4.1%) had ADHD symptoms. In adjusted models, increased levels of AH exposure per IQR from total AH, industry, transportation, buildings, and human metabolism all increased the odds of ADHD (odds ratios, 3.60 [95% CI, 3.42, 3.80]; 5.71 [95% CI, 5.32, 6.14]; 1.79 [95% CI, 1.75, 1.84]; 2.10 [95% CI, 2.03, 2.17]; 1.95 [95% CI, 1.89, 2.02]). The association remained robust after various sensitivity analyses. Prolonged exposure to AH is associated with the development of ADHD symptoms in children.}, }
@article {pmid39739703, year = {2024}, author = {Riantini, M and Mardiharini, M and Saptana,  and Sudjarmoko, B and Kasymir, E and Nur'aini, LG and Anindita, SH and Syukur, M and Zulham, A and Wardono, B and Ardana, IK and Indrawanto, C and Wahyudi, A}, title = {Livelihood vulnerability household fishermen household due to climate change in Lampung Province, Indonesia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {e0315051}, pmid = {39739703}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Indonesia ; *Income ; *Fisheries ; *Family Characteristics ; Male ; Adult ; Female ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Middle Aged ; Animals ; }, abstract = {The livelihood of small-scale fishers is highly dependent on marine resources and coastal areas while the condition of marine waters is increasingly unpredictable due to seasonal uncertainty and extreme weather due to climate variability. This condition has a negative impact on fish catches and the income of small-scale fishermen. The study results were obtained through interviews with respondents using a structured questionnaire. Sampling was carried out using multistage random sampling based on the type and number of ships controlled (1 GT-5GT). The total sample of respondents interviewed was 166 fishing households, consisting of 36 respondents from Bandar Lampung City, 65 respondents from South Lampung Regency, and 65 respondents from Tanggamus Regency. Data was evaluated using three analysis methods, namely household income structure, indicators of income vulnerability, and adaptation mechanisms. Income structure and income vulnerability use a quantitative approach, while adaptation mechanisms use a qualitative approach. The results of this empirical study found that the source of income of traditional capture fisher households is from: fishing business (on the farm) averaged 82.22%, in Tanggamus Regency, the proportion reached 86.22%. The income vulnerability index of traditional capture fisher households (LVI-IPCC value) in Bandar Lampung City and South Lampung Regency is positive (0.39 and 0.36). The income vulnerability index of traditional fishermen in Tanggamus Regency is negative -0.29. Fishermen employ an adaptation mechanism that engaged the five fundamental facets of income capital, namely natural capital, human capital, physical capital, financial capital, and social capital.}, }
@article {pmid39739527, year = {2025}, author = {Smith, ME and Bommarco, R and Vico, G}, title = {Rethinking Crop Rotational Benefits Under Climate Change: Beyond the Growing Season.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {e70012}, pmid = {39739527}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Here, we provide a commentary on “Changes in the yield effect of the preceding crop in the US Corn Belt under a warming climate” recently published in Global Change Biology. Crop rotational diversity has recently been gaining interest for its role in climate change adaptation; however, the focus has been on climatic conditions in the growing season . This study uses data from over a wide area and an important cropping system to demonstrate that the benefits of a different preceding crop for both corn and soybean depended on both growing season and non‐growing conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39739228, year = {2024}, author = {Ahmad, D and Faridullah, F and Irshad, M and Bacha, AUR and Hafeez, F and Iqbal, A and Ullah, Z and Afridi, MN and Alrefaei, AF and Nazir, R}, title = {Climate change projections for Diamer Division in lesser Himalayas using multi-global climate model ensemble.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39739228}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Pakistan, like many other regions around the world, is experiencing the impacts of climate change, particularly in its northern region. These changes have adverse impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity. Herein, we have investigated future projections of temperature and precipitation trends for three periods historical (HT = 1975-2005), near-term (NT = 2010-2029), and mid-term (MT = 2030-2050) using climate model intercomparison projects along with global climate models (GCMs) including RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The historical records spanning from 1975 to 2005 reveal that the Chilas region has a notable rise of 8 °C in maximum temperature (Tmax), whereas the Astore district exhibited a trend of decreasing temperatures. When examining the projected temperature trends using GCMs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the Chilas region is predicted to undergo a further increase of 6 °C in Tmax. In contrast, the Babusar region is projected to observe a significant decrease of 2 °C for the period between 2010 and 2050. Additionally, the precipitation results obtained from historical-based analysis for the period 1975 to 2005 indicated that the Babusar area exhibited increased precipitation patterns to 20 mm on an annual basis. Similarly, the Astore region has the most significant decline in precipitation, with a reduction of 40 mm annually. The predicted precipitation patterns for the period between 2010 and 2050 under the RCP8.5 revealed that the Babusar region has maximum precipitation (25 mm). Conversely, the Astore region exhibited reduced precipitation patterns, recording minimum precipitation (40 mm). In the results from RCP4.5, the precipitation showed a similar pattern with a maximum of 35 mm and a minimum of 15 mm in the Babusar and Astore, respectively. The region's glaciers, snow cover, and land use systems are deteriorated by these changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. The increased winter and decreased summer precipitation under varied temperatures and precipitation cause land degradation, forest, and water resources. The cumulative impacts result in individuals experiencing poverty and raising concerns about the region's long-term viability.}, }
@article {pmid39737741, year = {2025}, author = {Chatten, A and Grieve, I and Meligoniti, E and Hayward, C and Pilakouta, N}, title = {Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Fertility of Aquatic Animals Using a Meta-Analytic Approach.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {e70054}, pmid = {39737741}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Male ; *Aquatic Organisms/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Fertility ; Reproduction ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Given that reproductive physiology is highly sensitive to thermal stress, there is increasing concern about the effects of climate change on animal fertility. Even a slight reduction in fertility can have consequences for population growth and survival, so it is critical to better understand and predict the potential effects of climate change on reproductive traits. We synthesised 1894 effect sizes across 276 studies on 241 species to examine thermal effects on fertility in aquatic animals. Our meta-analysis revealed that external fertilisers tend to be more vulnerable to warming than internal fertilisers, especially in freshwater species. We also found that increased temperature is particularly detrimental for gametes and that under certain conditions, female fertility is more sensitive to warming than male fertility, challenging the prevailing view that males are more vulnerable. This work provides valuable new insights into the effects of temperature on fertility, with potential consequences for population viability.}, }
@article {pmid39737522, year = {2024}, author = {Sun, R and Fay, R and Ventura, F and Şen, B and Barbraud, C and Delord, K and Krumhardt, K and Jenouvrier, S}, title = {Climate Change Impacts Pair-Bond Dynamics in a Long-Lived Monogamous Species.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {27}, number = {12}, pages = {e14555}, pmid = {39737522}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {1840058//Division of Antarctic Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; Female ; Male ; Pair Bond ; Birds/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change can influence populations of monogamous species by affecting pair-bond dynamics. This study examined the impact of climate on widowhood and divorce, and the subsequent effects on individual vital rates and life-history outcomes over 54 years in a snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea) population. We found that environmental conditions can affect pair-bond dynamics both directly and indirectly. Divorce was adaptive, occurring more frequently after breeding failure and leading to improved breeding success. Divorce probabilities also increased under severe climatic conditions, regardless of prior breeding success, supporting the 'Habitat-mediated' mechanisms. Overall, pair-bond disruptions reduced subsequent vital rates and lifetime outcomes. Climate forecasts from an Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model projected increased male widowhood rates due to decreased sea ice negatively affecting female survival, despite considerable uncertainty. These findings highlight the importance of environmentally induced changes in demographic and pair-bond disruption rates as crucial factors shaping demographic responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39737344, year = {2024}, author = {Mills, JD and Gulcebi, MI and Allatt, J and Amos, A and Atkinson, J and Berwick, J and Clayton, S and Dijk, DJ and Doell, KC and Ebi, K and Fleischer, CC and Hajat, S and Howarth, C and Jones, O and Maslin, M and Page, L and Romanello, M and Vanhala, L and Sisodiya, SM}, title = {Climate change and neurological diseases: report from the Hot Brain 2: Climate Change and Brain Health meeting, 2024.}, journal = {BMJ neurology open}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {e000929}, pmid = {39737344}, issn = {2632-6140}, }
@article {pmid39736933, year = {2024}, author = {Deniz, &#xd6; and Aragona, F and Murphy, BA and Tümer, K&#xc7; and Bozacı, S and Fazio, F}, title = {Climate change impact on blood haemogram in the horse: a three-year preliminary study.}, journal = {Frontiers in veterinary science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1482268}, pmid = {39736933}, issn = {2297-1769}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The global climatic changes pose a substantial threat to the well-being and productivity of both humans and animals.<br><br>METHODS: This study examined the impact of climate changes during different seasons over a 3-year monitoring period (2021-2023) on various blood parameters including, white blood cells (WBC), neutrophils, basophils, eosinophils, lymphocytes, and monocytes, hematocrit (HCT), hemoglobin (HGB), red blood cells (RBC), platelets (PLT), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), and mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH). The study focused on 25 Thoroughbred mares located in Kastamonu-T&#xfc;rkiye. Thermal and hygrometric parameters, including ambient temperature, relative humidity, and ventilation, were collected. Subsequently, Temperature-Humidity index (THI) was computed. Blood samples were collected on the first day of every month from January 2021 to December 2023 and used for a complete blood count analysis. Between 2021 and 2023, changes in environmental indicators were correlated to changes in hematological parameters.<br><br>RESULTS: Two-way for repeated measures ANOVA revealed a significant seasonal fluctuation (<0.0001) in ambient temperature, relative humidity, and THI. There was a reduction in RBC (<0.01), and MCH (<0.01) every year, HGB (<0.0001) in summer 2021, 2022 and in summer and autumn 2023. HCT (<0.0001), MCV (<0.01), showed decreasing values in autumn 2022 and 2023. MCHC values showed increasing values in July and August 2021, 2022 and in June 2023. WBC levels increased throughout the spring periods of 2021 and 2022. In April 2021, there were elevated levels of lymphocytes and monocytes (<0.0001) respectively.<br><br>DISCUSSION: These findings could be helpful to promote the monitoring of physiological status both for the assessment of welfare status and for diagnostic purposes for the evaluation of possible disease outbreaks due to climate change in veterinary medicine.}, }
@article {pmid39735428, year = {2024}, author = {Daraz, U and Khan, Y and Alsawalqa, RO and Alrawashdeh, MN and Alnajdawi, AM}, title = {Impact of climate change on women mental health in rural hinterland of Pakistan.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychiatry}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1450943}, pmid = {39735428}, issn = {1664-0640}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change significantly impacts global well-being, with rural and agricultural communities, particularly women, bearing a disproportionate burden. In Pakistan's Malakand Division, women face increased mental health challenges due to environmental stressors such as temperature rise, extreme weather, and environmental degradation. These stressors are expected to exacerbate issues like stress, anxiety, and depression. Understanding their effects on rural women's mental health is crucial for developing effective intervention strategies.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: This study employs quantitative methodologies to assess the impact of climate change on the mental health of rural women in Malakand Division, focusing on Dir Upper, Dir Lower, and Shangla districts. A cross-sectional design was used, with a sample size of 600 women selected through multistage cluster sampling for geographic representation. Data were collected using structured questionnaires addressing stress, anxiety, and community dynamics. Data were analyzed using multiple regression, structural equation modeling (SEM), ANOVA, and logistic regression.<br><br>RESULTS: The results revealed that climate change factors-temperature increase (&#x3b2; = 0.42, p < 0.01), extreme weather events (&#x3b2; = 0.36, p < 0.01), precipitation changes (&#x3b2; = 0.31, p < 0.05), and environmental degradation (&#x3b2; = 0.28, p < 0.05)-significantly impacted rural women's mental health. High levels of stress (72%), anxiety (68%), and depression (56%) were reported. Social support (&#x3b2; = -0.45, p < 0.01), community cohesion (&#x3b2; = -0.37, p < 0.05), access to resources (&#x3b2; = -0.39, p < 0.01), and cultural norms (&#x3b2; = -0.33, p < 0.05) were key factors mitigating the effects of climate stress. Gender disparities were evident, with women showing higher mental health challenges compared to men in similar conditions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The study concludes that climate change significantly exacerbates mental health issues for rural women. It highlights the need for gender-sensitive, community-based interventions that address both climate adaptation and mental health. Strengthening community resilience, improving access to resources, and investing in healthcare and education are vital for enhancing well-being in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39735425, year = {2024}, author = {Shariff, Y and Mushtaq, M and Shah, SMA and Malik, H and Abdullah, M and Jamil, MU and Rehman, A and Hudaib, M and Manahil,  and Ahad, AU and Mughal, S and Eljack, MMF}, title = {Insight into the Environmental Health Consciousness of Medical Students Regarding the Perceived Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health.}, journal = {Environmental health insights}, volume = {18}, number = {}, pages = {11786302241310031}, pmid = {39735425}, issn = {1178-6302}, abstract = {Climate change represents an unprecedented global public health crisis with extensive and profound implications. The Lancet Commission identified it as the foremost health challenge of the 21st century. In 2015, air pollution alone caused approximately 9 million premature deaths worldwide. Climate change also exacerbates extreme weather events, displacement, mental health disorders, disease vectors, food insecurity, and malnutrition, particularly impacting vulnerable developing countries like Pakistan due to its agricultural reliance, diverse topography, and limited resources. This study assesses Pakistani medical students' perceptions of climate change's health impacts. Conducted in February 2024, a cross-sectional survey of 632 students using a standardized questionnaire was employed via online Google Forms. The questionnaire was validated and an Exploratory Factor Analysis identified seven subscales of environmental health consciousness. The mean participant age was 21.17 years, with a balanced gender distribution. Students showed high environmental health consciousness (Mean = 35.6, SD = 5.2), with 88% attributing climate change to human activities and 89.1% anticipating serious future health impacts. Significant concerns included air quality-related illness (91%), water-availability illness (86%), healthcare disruption (85%), cold-related illness (83%), and flooding-related displacement (87%). Psychological impacts were acknowledged by 68%. Household income, age, and gender were significant predictors. These results highlight the need for integrating climate change and health education into medical curricula to prepare future healthcare providers.}, }
@article {pmid39734774, year = {2024}, author = {Remsö, A and Bäck, H and Aurora Renström, E}, title = {Gender differences in climate change denial in Sweden: the role of threatened masculinity.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1450230}, pmid = {39734774}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Previous research in the Western world shows that men are in general more likely than women to deny human-induced climate change or certain aspects of it. We hypothesize that threatened masculinity contributes to such gender differences in Sweden. Threatened masculinity refers to the perception that a man's masculinity is being challenged, undermined, or devalued, often due to societal changes that advance women's rights. Given that environmental care and concern are typically associated with femininity, men who perceive that masculinity is threatened may be more likely to deny climate change to restore a sense of masculinity. Across three cross-sectional online surveys with representative samples of Swedish adults (total N = 2,476), men were more likely to deny climate change than women. Threatened masculinity-measured by belief in a shift in sexism and belongingness with men's rights activists-predicted climate change denial. In line with our hypothesis, belief in a sexism shift and, to a lesser extent, belongingness with men's rights activists mediated from gender to climate change denial. Hence threatened masculinity contributes to a higher tendency among men compared to women to deny climate change in these samples. This research adds to the understanding of gender gaps in environmental attitudes found in many Western countries and highlights climate change denial as a potential correlate of the growing gender-related polarization observed in these contexts.}, }
@article {pmid39733681, year = {2024}, author = {Nag, SK and Ghosh, BD and Das, BK and Sarkar, UK}, title = {Wetlands function as carbon sink: Evaluation of few floodplains of middle Assam, northeast India in the perspective of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123841}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123841}, pmid = {39733681}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Floodplain wetlands are biologically rich and productive ecosystems that can capture carbon (C) from the atmosphere through macrophytes and phytoplanktons and hold it in soil for a long time thus playing a critical role in mitigating climate change. The Assam state of India has about 1392 floodplain wetlands engulfing around 100,000 ha area in the Brahmaputra and Barak River basin. In the present study, five different wetlands in the middle Assam viz., 47-Morakolong, Jaliguti, Charan, Chatla, and Urmal were chosen for the estimation of C capture and its storage in soil. The net primary planktonic productivity (NPP) of Chatla was much higher (300mgC/m[3]/hr) than other wetlands where it ranged around 100-150 mgC/m[3]/hr. Macrophyte coverage was highest (80%) in Chatla followed by Urmal (50%) and 30% in others. Total organic carbon (TOC) content in water was also significantly higher in Chatla than in others. The C content at different depths of the soil (upper 15 and 15-30 cm) of the wetlands varied widely from 1.3 to 7% and in absolute terms, the total C accumulated in top 30 cm varied from 12.65 to 76.95 MgC/ha. The amount of C in upper 30 cm of corresponding upland sites was estimated to be 8.8-33.62 MgC/ha. Thus, wetlands are superior in terms of C accumulation and storage in their soil compared to the corresponding upland sites. If properly managed, the wetlands can be very effective in capturing and storing C and offset GHG emission and global warming to a great extent.}, }
@article {pmid39733659, year = {2024}, author = {Aaserud, KN and Marí-Dell'Olmo, M and Palència, L and Carrere, J and López, MJ and Oliveras, L}, title = {Energy poverty and health inequalities in Barcelona: A cross-sectional trends study in the context of COVID-19, energy crisis and climate change, 2016-2021.}, journal = {Health &amp; place}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {103401}, doi = {10.1016/j.healthplace.2024.103401}, pmid = {39733659}, issn = {1873-2054}, abstract = {The aim of this study was to analyse the time trends in Barcelona before and during the adverse context of COVID-19, energy crisis, and climate change in 1) the energy poverty (EP) prevalence; 2) the association between EP and health and 3) the impact of EP on health, according to the axes of inequality (sex, age, social class, and country of birth). We conducted a cross-sectional trends study using data from the 2016 and 2021 Barcelona Health Survey. This study clearly recognizes that EP continues to be an important public health problem in the context of Barcelona. The results show that EP did increase somewhat, though not as sharply as hypothesized in the current adverse context. Neither did it have as large consequences on the effects of EP on health as we expected to see. However, it demonstrates that there is still a strong association between EP and poor health, particularly in vulnerable groups such as people born in LMI countries and manual workers, who experienced an increase in the impact of EP on poor health outcomes, which suggests increasing health inequalities.}, }
@article {pmid39730691, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, Y and Luo, C and Huang, X and Li, W and Yan, H and Ji, H and Zhou, J and Liao, H}, title = {Prediction of change in suitable habitats of Senna obtusifolia and Senna tora under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {30904}, pmid = {39730691}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {32270410//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Senna Plant ; *Ecosystem ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; }, abstract = {Senna obtusifolia (L.) Irwin &amp; Barneby and Senna tora (L.) Roxb represent important medicinal resources in traditional Chinese medicine for more than two millennia. Sustainable resource utilization and preservation strategies for Senna species necessitate a thorough understanding of the climatic factors governing their distribution patterns. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the key climate variables shaping the current and potential future global distribution of both Senna species. To achieve this, the MaxEnt ecological niche model was employed, integrating species occurrence data with relevant environmental variables. The results indicated that Bio13 and Bio14 were the most critical variables affecting distribution of S. tora, while Bio6 and Bio14 were crucial for S. obtusifolia. The moderate and high suitability habitats of S. obtusifolia and S. tora consist of ca. 189.69 × 10[4] km[2] and 129.07 × 10[4] km[2], respectively, under current situation. Moreover, the global distribution of both species under various climate scenarios revealed that the suitable habitats of both Senna species will reach the maximum during the 2081-2100 period under the SSP585 scenario. Projections across all four climate scenarios indicate a general northward migration in the core distribution of both Senna species. Intriguingly, the observed high degree of ecological niche overlap between the two species aligns with their close phylogenetic relationship. These findings provide valuable insights into the potential future distribution and ecological niche of Senna species, informing sustainable utilization and preservation strategies for Senna resources.}, }
@article {pmid39730584, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, D and Zhang, Y and Yousefi, N}, title = {Urban Water-Energy consumption Prediction Influenced by Climate Change utilizing an innovative deep learning method.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {30931}, pmid = {39730584}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The growing global demand for water and energy has created an urgent necessity for precise forecasting and management of these resources, especially in urban regions where population growth and economic development are intensifying consumption. Shenzhen, a rapidly expanding megacity in China, exemplifies this trend, with its water and energy requirements anticipated to rise further in the upcoming years. This research proposes an innovative Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) technique for forecasting water and energy consumption in Shenzhen, considering the intricate interactions among climate, socio-economic, and demographic elements. The proposed approach integrates a CNN model with an Enhanced Gorilla Troops Optimization (EGTO) algorithm to demonstrate superior performance compared to other leading methods in terms of accuracy and reliability. The results show a strong correlation between the simulated and observed data, with a correlation coefficient of 0.87 for water consumption and 0.91 for energy consumption, indicating a high level of agreement between the simulated and real-world data. Also, it is indicated that the new technique can accurately forecast water and energy consumption, achieving a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.63 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.58, respectively. The research indicates that the suggested approach can promote policymakers and stakeholders in making well-informed decisions by delivering precise predictions of water and energy usage. This, in turn, can facilitate better resource distribution, minimize waste, and promote greater sustainability. The study emphasizes the necessity of incorporating climate change and socio-economic factors into the forecasting process and showcases the proposed method's potential to aid decision-making in this domain.}, }
@article {pmid39730220, year = {2024}, author = {Dai, H and Ji, JS and Wang, S and Zhao, B}, title = {Impact of climate change shocks on health risks attributed to urban residential PM2.5 in China.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2024.12.018}, pmid = {39730220}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid39729698, year = {2024}, author = {Schwartz, SA}, title = {Humanity's precognititon: Climate change and the decline of democracy.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {103104}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2024.103104}, pmid = {39729698}, issn = {1878-7541}, }
@article {pmid39728332, year = {2024}, author = {Vallese, C and Di Nuzzo, L and Francesconi, L and Giordani, P and Spitale, D and Benesperi, R and Gheza, G and Mair, P and Nascimbene, J}, title = {Bedrock-Dependent Effects of Climate Change on Terricolous Lichens Along Elevational Gradients in the Alps.}, journal = {Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {39728332}, issn = {2309-608X}, support = {"BRIOCOLL", CUP H53C17000240005, 2017//Research Fund of the Betrieb Landesmuseen, of the Autonomous Province of Bozen/Bolzano)/ ; }, abstract = {In this study, we focused on the bedrock-dependent effects of climate change on terricolous lichen communities along elevational gradients in the Alps. In particular, we contrasted between carbonatic and siliceous bedrock, hypothesizing more favourable conditions on siliceous than on carbonatic bedrock, where dryer conditions may exacerbate the effects of climate change. To test this hypothesis, we compared terricolous lichen diversity patterns between the two bedrock types in terms of (1) species richness, (2) beta-diversity, (3) proportion of cryophilous species, and (4) functional diversity, also testing the effect of the elevational gradient as a proxy for expected climate warming. Our results indicate that the most cold-adapted part of the terricolus lichen biota of the Alps could be especially threatened in the near future, mainly on carbonatic bedrock. Actually, contrasting diversity patterns were found between carbonatic and siliceous bedrock, clearly revealing a bedrock-dependent effect of climate change on terricolous lichens of the Alps. As hypothesized, siliceous bedrock hosts a richer lichen biota than carbonatic bedrock, reflecting a general richness pattern at the national level. In general, siliceous bedrock seems to be less prone to rapid pauperization of its lichen biota, providing more suitable climatic refugia that can mitigate the effects of climate warming on terricolous lichens.}, }
@article {pmid39727185, year = {2024}, author = {Bernal-Bello, D and Gallego-Torrero, P and Morales-Ortega, A}, title = {Cutaneous larva migrans outside the tropics - A clue to global warming?.}, journal = {The journal of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {14782715241310288}, doi = {10.1177/14782715241310288}, pmid = {39727185}, issn = {2042-8189}, }
@article {pmid39727128, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, WQ and Yang, B and Li, XW and Liang, YL and Li, JY}, title = {[Impact of climate change on the potential geographical distribution of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {10}, pages = {2813-2821}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202410.025}, pmid = {39727128}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Hippophae/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; China ; *Ecosystem ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis is an important resource plant with considerable medicinal, economic, and ecological value, and an indicator species in the transition zones between forests and grasslands. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis under climate change can reveal the responses of China's grassland and forest to global climate change, which is of significance for the conservation and development of its resources. We utilized distribution data of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis to predict its suitable habitats under future climate change based on the Biomod2 ensemble model, and analyzed the trend of land use type change in these habitats in conjunction with remote sensing data of land use types in China in 2020. The results showed that the Biomod2 ensemble model significantly improved the accuracy and precision of predicting H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis compared to single models. The distribution of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis was primarily concentrated on both sides of the diagonal from Liaoning to Tibet, situated in forest-grassland ecotone. Under the SSP126 scenario, the suitable habitats for H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis would initially expand and then contract. Under the SSP585 scenario, they would show a continuous expansion trend. In the context of global warming, the suitable habitats for H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis would expand. By 2050 and 2070, the area of suitable habitats for H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis in grasslands would increase, while areas currently occupied by forests, croplands, and developed land would continue to decrease. Under future climate change, the distribution center of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis would migrate towards higher-altitude grassland areas. Among the environmental factors affecting the distribution of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis, climate variables were predominant, with the highest contribution of rainfall during the warmest season.}, }
@article {pmid39727127, year = {2024}, author = {Cao, Y and Li, H and Zhang, CH and Li, YY and Wu, JQ and Chai, XY and Niu, JZ and Tao, YJ}, title = {[Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest cover and its response to climate change in Shandong Province, China during 2000-2022.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {10}, pages = {2803-2812}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202410.024}, pmid = {39727127}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Accurately capturing the spatiotemporal dynamics of regional forest cover and its response to climate change is of great significance for forest resource management and ecological environment protection. We used statistical methods such us linear regression and correlation analysis, as well as remote sensing change monitoring to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest cover and its response to climate change from 2000 to 2022 in Shandong Province based on MODIS VCF products and meteorological data. The results showed that the forest co-verage and forest area in Shandong Province increased from 43.0% and 197.06×10[4] hm[2] in 2000 to 43.1% and 326.08×10[4] hm[2] in 2022, respectively. Spatially, forest coverage grew stepwise from the southwest and northwest to the center and east of Shandong. 90.6% of the forest area of Shandong Province experienced a relative increase in forest cover during 2000-2022. Most of the increased area was concentrated in the central southern mountains and hills and the eastern low mountains and hills. The area expansion of forest cover was primarily located in the lowland areas of Liaocheng, Dezhou, Heze, Jining, and Binzhou, which accounted for 52.3% of the provincial forest area. There was a positive correlation between forest coverage and air temperature, but a negative correlation between forest coverage and precipitation. Air temperature was the main climatic factor influencing the shift in forest coverage during the study period.}, }
@article {pmid39726958, year = {2024}, author = {Tang, S and Struik, PC and Ren, J and Wang, C and Jin, K}, title = {Editorial: Exploring the effects of human activities and climate change on soil microorganisms in grasslands.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1515648}, pmid = {39726958}, issn = {1664-302X}, }
@article {pmid39726892, year = {2024}, author = {Kaufman, C and Daly, T and Santi, MF}, title = {A case from Argentina on the ethical imperative to prioritize children in the health and climate change research agenda.}, journal = {Ethics, medicine, and public health}, volume = {32}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39726892}, issn = {2352-5525}, }
@article {pmid39726081, year = {2024}, author = {Meherali, S and Nisa, S and Aynalem, YA and Kennedy, M and Salami, B and Adjorlolo, S and Ali, P and Silva, KL and Aziato, L and Richter, S and Lassi, ZS}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Adolescents' Health Outcomes: An Evidence Gap Map Review.}, journal = {Journal of adolescence}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jad.12455}, pmid = {39726081}, issn = {1095-9254}, support = {//This project was supported by World Universities Network Research Development Funds (WUN RDF), Grant # RES0061104. The funding agency played no role in developing and publishing this manuscript./ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The evolving impact of climate change on adolescents' health is a pressing global concern. Climate change's effects on their physical, mental, and social well-being worsen unique developmental challenges for adolescents. This study aims to map existing evidence, identify gaps, and highlight research and intervention needs.<br><br>METHODS: Following Campbell standards, an evidence gap map (EGM) review was conducted. We searched for global studies on adverse climate events and adolescents aged 10-19 using five databases such as Medline, EMBASE, Global Health, CINAHL, and Scopus from September 1946 to June 01, 2023. Two independent reviewers completed the screening using Covidence software, and a critical appraisal of all included studies. EGM was developed using EPPI Mapper software, which presents a comprehensive overview of climate events and their impact on adolescents' health outcomes. This study protocol was registered in the International Platform of Registered Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (INPLASY) (# INPLASY202410119).<br><br>FINDINGS: We included 44 studies that explored the impact of climate change on adolescents' health. Most included studies were from Asia (35), with limited evidence from Africa, Australia, and South America (one study each). Earthquakes, hurricanes, and tornadoes were the major climate events impacting adolescents' health and well-being globally (37 studies). However, wildfires, droughts, and extreme heat got less attention. Most studies reported climate change's impact on adolescents' mental health (44), with few studies reporting the effect on physiological and psychosocial aspects of adolescents' health and well-being (10).<br><br>CONCLUSION: The systematic examination reveals significant evidence gaps, particularly in Africa, Australia, and South America, and in climate events like wildfires, droughts, and extreme heat. Most studies focus on mental health, with limited research on physiological and psychosocial aspects. These gaps highlight key areas for future research and targeted interventions at the intersection of adolescent health and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39725544, year = {2025}, author = {Naughton, M and Round, T and Payne, R}, title = {Climate change and primary care: how to reduce the carbon footprint of your practice.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {75}, number = {750}, pages = {23-25}, pmid = {39725544}, issn = {1478-5242}, }
@article {pmid39725443, year = {2024}, author = {Klapka, CS and Barbosa, BB and Magalhães, AR and Carioca, AAF and Lourenço, BH and Gomes, SM and Martins de Carvalho, A}, title = {Exploring the effects of climate change on child malnutrition: protocol for a scoping review.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {e090285}, pmid = {39725443}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Child, Preschool ; Humans ; Infant ; *Child Nutrition Disorders/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Pediatric Obesity/epidemiology ; Research Design ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Rapid climate changes in the early 21st century have triggered a global syndemic intertwining obesity, undernutrition and climate change, profoundly affecting health, especially children. Despite increasing research, a significant gap persists in understanding the mechanisms linking climate change to child malnutrition, particularly in children under 5 years old. This protocol proposes a scoping review to address this gap, with the aim of mapping the available evidence on the relationship between climate change and malnutrition among children under 5 years old.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This scoping review will be conducted according to the Joanna Briggs Manual for Evidence Synthesis, and the results will be reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist to ensure a replicable process. The search will be conducted using MEDLINE (PubMed), Web of Science, Scopus and Embase databases. The studies to be included will be selected according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria defined based on the Population, Concept and Context technique. The study population will consist of children under 5 years old, with a focus on examining the impact of climate change on health outcomes related to nutrition, obesity and undernutrition. Original articles in English, Spanish and Portuguese will be selected without any restrictions on the publication year. Two researchers will independently select the articles and extract the data. The results will be presented through narrative synthesis.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study relies on analysing existing scientific literature and does not require ethical approval. The outcomes of this scoping review will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal, with a preference for open access.<br><br>STUDY REGISTRATION: OSF (osf.io/swt4b).}, }
@article {pmid39725249, year = {2024}, author = {Bilgin, E}, title = {Beyond being a rheumatologist: Environment, climate change, and carbon footprint - We need an action!.}, journal = {Autoimmunity reviews}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {103737}, doi = {10.1016/j.autrev.2024.103737}, pmid = {39725249}, issn = {1873-0183}, }
@article {pmid39722867, year = {2024}, author = {Pauliuk, S and Carrer, F and Heeren, N and Hertwich, EG}, title = {Scenario analysis of supply- and demand-side solutions for circular economy and climate change mitigation in the global building sector.}, journal = {Journal of industrial ecology}, volume = {28}, number = {6}, pages = {1699-1715}, pmid = {39722867}, issn = {1088-1980}, abstract = {Residential and non-residential buildings are a major contributor to human well-being. At the same time, buildings cause 30% of final energy use, 18% of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), and about 65% of material accumulation globally. With electrification and higher energy efficiency of buildings, material-related emissions gain relevance. The circular economy (CE) strategies, narrow, slow, and close, together with wooden buildings, can reduce material-related emissions. We provide a comprehensive set of building stock transformation scenarios for 10 world regions until 2060, using the resource efficiency climate change model of the stock-flow-service nexus and including the full CE spectrum plus wood-intensive buildings. The 2020-2050 global cumulative new construction ranges from 150 to 280 billion m[2] for residential and 70-120 billion m[2] for non-residential buildings. Ambitious CE reduces cumulative 2020-2050 primary material demand from 80 to 30 gigatons (Gt) for cement and from 35 to 15 Gt for steel. Lowering floor space demand by 1 m[2] per capita leads to global savings of 800-2500 megatons (Mt) of cement, 300-1000 Mt of steel, and 3-10 Gt CO2-eq, depending on industry decarbonization and CE roll-out. Each additional Mt of structural timber leads to savings of 0.4-0.55 Mt of cement, 0.6-0.85 Mt of steel, and 0.8-1.8 Mt CO2-eq of system-wide GHGE. CE reduces 2020-2050 cumulative GHGE by up to 44%, where the highest contribution comes from the narrow CE strategies, that is, lower floorspace and lightweight buildings. Very low carbon emission trajectories are possible only when combining supply- and demand-side strategies. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.}, }
@article {pmid39722757, year = {2024}, author = {Ali, A and Shaikh, A and Sethi, I and Surani, S}, title = {Climate change and the emergence and exacerbation of infectious diseases: A review.}, journal = {World journal of virology}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {96476}, pmid = {39722757}, issn = {2220-3249}, abstract = {Experts expressed severe concerns over the possibility of increasing burden of infectious diseases as the planet's climate began to change years ago. There have been increased rates of climate-related catastrophes and as global temperatures rise, emergence of certain viruses has become a serious concern. Vectors are susceptible to changing temperatures as they exhibit innate responses to thermal stress to increase survivability. Climate change impacts virus reservoirs, increasing transmission rates of vectors. Vector-borne diseases have already witnessed increasing numbers compared to before. Certain non-endemic areas are encountering their first-ever infectious disease cases due to increasing temperatures. Tick-borne diseases are undergoing transformations provoking a heightened prevalence. Food-borne illnesses are expected to increase owing to warmer temperatures. It is important to recognize that climate change has a multivariable impact on the transmission of viruses. With climate change comes the potential of increasing interspecies interactions promoting jumps. These factors must be considered, and an informed strategy must be formulated. Adaptation and mitigation strategies are required to curb these diseases from spreading. Despite significant evidence that climate change affects infectious diseases, gaps in research exist. We conducted this review to identify the potential role climate change plays in the emergence of new viruses.}, }
@article {pmid39722593, year = {2024}, author = {Verrico, B and Preston, JC}, title = {Historic rewiring of grass flowering time pathways and implications for crop improvement under climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.20375}, pmid = {39722593}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {IOS-2120732//Division of Integrative Organismal Systems/ ; }, abstract = {Grasses are fundamental to human survival, providing a large percentage of our calories, fuel, and fodder for livestock, and an enormous global carbon sink. A particularly important part of the grass plant is the grain-producing inflorescence that develops in response to both internal and external signals that converge at the shoot tip to influence meristem behavior. Abiotic signals that trigger reproductive development vary across the grass family, mostly due to the unique ecological and phylogenetic histories of each clade. The time it takes a grass to flower has implications for its ability to escape harsh environments, while also indirectly affecting abiotic stress tolerance, inflorescence architecture, and grain yield. Here, we synthesize recent insights into the evolution of grass flowering time in response to past climate change, particularly focusing on genetic convergence in underlying traits. We then discuss how and why the rewiring of a shared ancestral flowering pathway affects grass yields, and outline ways in which researchers are using this and other information to breed higher yielding, climate-proof cereal crops.}, }
@article {pmid39721548, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, F and Masago, Y}, title = {Assessing the geographical diversity of climate change risks in Japan by overlaying climatic impacts with exposure and vulnerability indicators.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {959}, number = {}, pages = {178076}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178076}, pmid = {39721548}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding multifaceted climate change risks and their interconnections is essential for effective adaptation strategies, which require comprehensive assessments of both climatic impact variations and social-environmental exposures/vulnerabilities. This study examines these interconnections and creates multitier delineations of future climate risks across Japan by overlaying homogeneous impact zones (HIZs) with exposure-vulnerability complexes (EVCs). We delineated eight EVC regions, each exhibiting similar patterns of exposure and vulnerability, via multivariate clustering and similarity search on the basis of future population and land cover/use data. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 scenario, 8.07 % of Japan's area was identified as urban, 66.18 % as forest, and 16.66 % as agricultural land, depending on vulnerability and exposure characteristics. We then spatially intersected these EVCs with six HIZs, which represent common patterns of multisectoral climatic impact variations. This intersection revealed low geographical correspondence between climatic impact variations and exposure-vulnerability factors, indicating high spatial variability in climate risk across Japan. The use of EVCs helps identify areas with anticipated climate change risks. The spatial nexus between HIZs and EVCs underscores the geographical complexity and diversity of climate risks, revealing regions with high-impact variations alongside significant exposures and vulnerabilities. For example, urban EVCs highlight critical issues such as heat-related mortality and flood damage. By mapping these impact variations while focusing on exposure and vulnerability disparities, insights from HIZs and EVCs can inform future climate risk management and effective adaptation strategies at the national and regional levels.}, }
@article {pmid39721139, year = {2024}, author = {Lorenz, C and de Azevedo, TS and Chiaravalloti-Neto, F}, title = {Effects of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of Western equine encephalitis virus in South America.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {239}, number = {}, pages = {1-8}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2024.12.031}, pmid = {39721139}, issn = {1476-5616}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The Western equine encephalitis virus (WEEV) is a globally relevant vector-borne pathogen that causes encephalitis. The role of environmental variables in the epidemiology of WEEV has become greater in the context of climate change. In December 2023, a significant resurgence of WEEV began in South America, with major ongoing outbreaks in Argentina and Uruguay. In this study, we employed a machine learning algorithm to model the distribution of WEEV in South America, considering both present and future scenarios.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: Ecological retrospective study.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a modelling study to identify areas with the highest prevalence of WEEV in South America, based on confirmed human and equine cases during the 2023/2024 outbreak and climatic variables. Our analysis utilised Maxent software, a machine learning algorithm for species distribution modelling.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results indicate that environmental variables, particularly thermal seasonality and annual rainfall, can directly influence the occurrence of WEEV, leading to increased virus incidence. Consequently, high-risk areas may shift in the future. Countries, such as Paraguay, Venezuela, Colombia, and various regions in Brazil, particularly the Northeast, Midwest, and the Pantanal biomes, will be significantly impacted, drastically altering the current distribution of WEEV.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The ongoing WEEV outbreak in South America is concerning because it coincides with migratory bird stopovers. These birds are natural hosts that can spread the virus to unaffected areas. Our results will help to identify priority areas for developing preventive measures and establishing epidemiological surveillance.}, }
@article {pmid39720947, year = {2024}, author = {Ohse, B and Jansen, D and Härdtle, W and Fichtner, A}, title = {Interactive effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on a globally rare forest geophyte.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/plb.13758}, pmid = {39720947}, issn = {1438-8677}, support = {01LC1312A//Bundesamt f&#xfc;r Naturschutz/ ; //Bundesministerium f&#xfc;r Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit/ ; //Bundesministerium f&#xfc;r Bildung und Forschung/ ; }, abstract = {Nitrogen (N) deposition and climate change are both known to threaten global biodiversity. However, we still have a limited understanding of how interactions between these global change drivers affect individuals and populations of specialist species, such as geophytes, within their natural habitat. We explored possible interactive effects of N, drought, and warming on population vitality (mean leaf length, leaf density, flowering probability) and morpho-physiological traits (e.g., leaf and bulb size, N allocation to leaves and bulbs) of the globally rare forest geophyte Gagea spathacea (Liliaceae) in deciduous forests of northern Germany by applying experimental N addition across a climate gradient over a 5-year period. Mean leaf growth and leaf density were not affected by N addition but were enhanced by warmer and drier conditions in the months before leaf emergence. N addition increased N allocation of individual plants towards their subterranean bulbs. Importantly, effects of N addition on morpho-physiological traits depended on warming and drought, with N-fertilized plants showing increased leaf length and decreased specific leaf and bulb N concentration after drier autumns and warmer winters. This indicates that N deposition may partially compensate for increased N demands during warming-induced growth, although this growth-promoting interaction effect is not (yet) reflected in population vitality. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple global environmental change drivers and a whole plant perspective (above- and belowground traits) to predict long-term growth responses of (endangered) forest spring geophytes and to develop adapted long-term protection strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39719578, year = {2024}, author = {Mramba, RP and Mapunda, PE}, title = {Perceived indicators of climate change in Tanzania: insights from the university of Dodoma students.}, journal = {BMC ecology and evolution}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {149}, pmid = {39719578}, issn = {2730-7182}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Tanzania ; Humans ; *Students/psychology ; Male ; Female ; Universities ; Young Adult ; Adult ; Adolescent ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Understanding local communities' knowledge and insights is essential for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change. The young generation often brings new perspectives on climate change, demonstrating a growing awareness of its impacts and innovative ideas for sustainable solutions. By engaging youth in climate action we foster future leadership, empowering them as active participants in shaping long-term climate resilience. Higher education plays a pivotal role in raising awareness about climate change and fostering environmentally responsible behaviour among citizens. Thus, the study assessed climate change indicators in Tanzania by gathering insights from university students, leveraging their understanding of the local challenges posed by climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: Out of the 486 sampled students, 80% were aware of climate change and could identify its indicators in their home regions. The primary perceived indicators of climate change reported by the respondents included increasing temperatures, crop failures, and the disappearance of native plant species. Respondents from the coastal zone ranked rising temperatures and increased rainfall as the most significant indicators, while those from the Kilimanjaro region emphasised crop failure. Additionally, respondents from the central zone highlighted the disappearance of native plant species. Conversely, respondents from the arid central zone believed that climate change has resulted in reduced rainfall and an increase in drought occurrences. Furthermore, socio-demographic factors such as gender, home region, and academic year influenced students' awareness of climate change. A lower proportion (0.78) of male students demonstrated knowledge of climate change compared to female students (0.91) (p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.001). Additionaly, a lower proportion (0.71) of students from urban areas demonstrated knowledge of climate change compared to students from rural areas (0.85) (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001). Moreover, students in their final year of study exhibited greater awareness of climate change than those in lower years, highlighting the significance of the formal education system in imparting knowledge about climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the role of higher education in fostering climate awareness and youth engagement through education and outreach. Additionally, it supports SDG 13: "Climate Action" and SDG 4: "Quality Education by promoting informed participation and sustainable solutions among young people".}, }
@article {pmid39718692, year = {2024}, author = {Padmavathy, SR and Santhappan, JS and Prabakaran, R and Kim, SC and Chockalingam, MP and Al-Shahri, ASA}, title = {R290-Hydrofluoroolefin based low global warming potential refrigerant mixtures for room air conditioner: An energy, exergy, and environmental (3E) analysis.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39718692}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Among the numerous residential appliances, window or split air conditioners are the most prevalent. The hydrochlorofluorocarbon and hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants used in those systems are causing a serious threat to the environment. In this study, R290-hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) mixtures are proposed as replacements for high-GWP substances (R410A and R22) in window air conditioning (WAC) units. Low-flammability alternatives like R290-R1234yf (50:50 and 60:40 by mass) and R290-R1234ze(E) (50:50 and 60:40 by mass) mixtures were considered promising refrigerants for this study. Using the REFPROP 10.0 refrigerant database and MATLAB-based mathematical modelling, the energy and exergy performance of a WAC unit with proposed and existing refrigerants was investigated. The results demonstrated that R290-HFO mixers performed well, with coefficients of performance that were 5.1-11.9% and 10.8-17.0% higher than those of R22 and R410A, respectively. In a similar fashion, the exergy efficiency of the WAC system increased by 3.1% to 6.2%, with reductions in total exergy degradation and power consumption of 7.1% to 12.2% and 5.1% to 10.1%, respectively. An assessment of the total equivalent warming impact revealed that the use of R290-HFO compounds results in CO2 emissions that are between 7.1 and 12.2% less than those of R22. Mini or microchannel heat exchangers for conventional evaporators and condensers can further decrease the predicted refrigerant change quantity for these mixtures, keeping it well below the IEC 60335-2-89 limit for flammable refrigerants.}, }
@article {pmid39717849, year = {2025}, author = {Akhigbe, RE and Oyedokun, PA and Akhigbe, TM and Hamed, MA and Fidelis, FB and Omole, AI and Adeogun, AE and Akangbe, MD and Oladipo, AA}, title = {The consequences of climate change and male reproductive health: A review of the possible impact and mechanisms.}, journal = {Biochemistry and biophysics reports}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {101889}, pmid = {39717849}, issn = {2405-5808}, abstract = {A global decline in male fertility has been reported, and climate change is considered a major cause of this. Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns, and results from greenhouse gas emissions like carbon dioxide and methane that act as a blanket wrapped around the earth, trapping heat and elevating temperatures. Sad to say, the consequences of climatic variation are beyond the dramatic elevated temperature, they include cold stress, increased malnutrition, air pollution, cardiovascular diseases respiratory tract infections, cancer, sexually transmitted infections, mental stress, and heat waves. These negative effects of climate change impair male reproductive function through multiple pathways, like ROS-sensitive signaling, suppression of steroidogenic markers, and direct damage to testicular cells. The present study aimed to describe the impact of the consequences of climate change on male reproductive health with details of the various mechanisms involved. This will provide an in-depth understanding of the pathophysiological and molecular basis of the possible climatic variation-induced decline in male fertility, which will aid in the development of preventive measures to abate the negative effects of climate change on male reproductive function.}, }
@article {pmid39715936, year = {2024}, author = {Brush, M and Lewis, MA}, title = {Eruptive Insect Outbreaks from Endemic Populations Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Bulletin of mathematical biology}, volume = {87}, number = {1}, pages = {16}, pmid = {39715936}, issn = {1522-9602}, support = {18202//Genome Canada/ ; L20TF//Genome Alberta/ ; U22004//fRI Research/ ; PDF - 568176 - 2022//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Coleoptera/physiology ; *Models, Biological ; *Population Dynamics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Mathematical Concepts ; *Forests ; Population Density ; Pinus/parasitology ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Insects, especially forest pests, are frequently characterized by eruptive dynamics. These types of species can stay at low, endemic population densities for extended periods of time before erupting in large-scale outbreaks. We here present a mechanistic model of these dynamics for mountain pine beetle. This extends a recent model that describes key aspects of mountain pine beetle biology coupled with a forest growth model by additionally including a fraction of low-vigor trees. These low-vigor trees, which may represent hosts with weakened defenses from drought, disease, other bark beetles, or other stressors, give rise to an endemic equilibrium in biologically plausible parameter ranges. The mechanistic nature of the model allows us to study how each model parameter affects the existence and size of the endemic equilibrium. We then show that under certain parameter shifts that are more likely under climate change, the endemic equilibrium can disappear entirely, leading to an outbreak.}, }
@article {pmid39715651, year = {2024}, author = {Day, M}, title = {Policy makers must tackle public health, biodiversity, water, food, and climate change together, says major report.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {387}, number = {}, pages = {q2855}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q2855}, pmid = {39715651}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid39712870, year = {2024}, author = {Kirchmeier-Young, MC and Malinina, E and Barber, QE and Garcia Perdomo, K and Curasi, SR and Liang, Y and Jain, P and Gillett, NP and Parisien, MA and Cannon, AJ and Lima, AR and Arora, VK and Boulanger, Y and Melton, JR and Van Vliet, L and Zhang, X}, title = {Human driven climate change increased the likelihood of the 2023 record area burned in Canada.}, journal = {NPJ climate and atmospheric science}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {316}, pmid = {39712870}, issn = {2397-3722}, abstract = {In 2023, wildfires burned 15 million hectares in Canada, more than doubling the previous record. These wildfires caused a record number of evacuations, unprecedented air quality impacts across Canada and the northeastern United States, and substantial strain on fire management resources. Using climate models, we show that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of area burned at least as large as in 2023 across most of Canada, with more than two-fold increases in the east and southwest. The long fire season was more than five times as likely and the large areas across Canada experiencing synchronous extreme fire weather were also much more likely due to human influence on the climate. Simulated emissions from the 2023 wildfire season were eight times their 1985-2022 mean. With continued warming, the likelihood of extreme fire seasons is projected to increase further in the future, driving additional impacts on health, society, and ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid39712434, year = {2024}, author = {Van de Vuurst, P and Qiao, H and Soler-Tovar, D and Escobar, LE}, title = {Climate change linked to vampire bat expansion and rabies virus spillover.}, journal = {Ecography}, volume = {2024}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {39712434}, issn = {0906-7590}, abstract = {Bat-borne pathogens are a threat to global health and in recent history have had major impacts on human morbidity and mortality. Examples include diseases such as rabies, Nipah virus encephalitis, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Climate change may exacerbate the emergence of bat-borne pathogens by affecting the ecology of bats in tropical ecosystems. Here, we report the impacts of climate change on the distributional ecology of the common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus across the last century. Our retrospective analysis revealed a positive relationship between changes in climate and the northern expansion of the distribution of D. rotundus in North America. Furthermore, we also found a reduction in the standard deviation of temperatures at D. rotundus capture locations during the last century, expressed as more consistent, less-seasonal climate in recent years. These results elucidate an association between D. rotundus range expansion and a continental-level rise in rabies virus spill-over transmission from D. rotundus to cattle in the last 50 years of the 120-year study period. This correlative study, based on field observations, offers empirical evidence supporting previous statistical and mathematical simulation-based studies reporting a likely increase of bat-borne diseases in response to climate change. We conclude that the D. rotundus rabies system exemplifies the consequences of climate change augmentation at the wildlife-livestock-human interface, demonstrating how global change acts upon these complex and interconnected systems to drive increased disease emergence.}, }
@article {pmid39711593, year = {2024}, author = {Wen, Z and Yan, K and Zhang, M and Ma, R and Zhu, X and Duan, Q and Jiang, X}, title = {Predicting the potential distribution of Astragali Radix in China under climate change adopting the MaxEnt model.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1505985}, pmid = {39711593}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Astragali Radix is the dried root of Astragalus mongoliae or Astragalus membranaceus, a leguminous plant. Since ancient times, Astragali Radix has been widely used in Chinese traditional Chinese medicine. As people become more health-conscious, the market demand for Astragali Radix grows and its popularity is increasing in the international market. As an important medicinal plant, the growth of Astragali Radix is strongly influenced by environmental conditions. In order to meet the market demand for high quality Astragali Radix herbs, it is necessary to search and find areas suitable for the growth of Astragali Radix.<br><br>METHODS: In this study, we assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of the Chinese medicinal plant Astragali Radix using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model in combination with a geographic information system(GIS). Distribution data and environmental variables were analyzed to predict suitable areas for Astragali Radix under the SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenario for current and future (2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Jackknife is used to assess the importance of environmental variables, and environmental variables with a model contribution greater than 5% were considered to be the main drivers.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that the current area of suitable area for Astragali Radix is 188.41 km[2], and the three climate scenarios show an increasing trend in the future, with a maximum of 212.70 km[2]. North China has always been the main suitable area, while the area of suitable area in Southwest China is decreasing, and Xinjiang will be developed as a new suitable area in the future. Annual precipitation (41.6%), elevation (15.9%), topsoil calcium carbonate (14.8%), annual mean temperature (8.3%), precipitation seasonality (8%) and topsoil pH (6%) contributed more to the model and were the main environmental influences on the distribution of Astragali Radix. In addition, the centroids of the suitable areas shifted northward under all three climate scenarios, indicating a migratory response to global warming.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Our study found that suitable area of Astragali Radix has been expanding for most of the time in each period of the three climate scenarios compared with the current situation. In the future, humans can focus on enhancing the cultivation techniques of Astragali Radix in these suitable areas. This study provide a scientific basis for the development of planting strategies and spatial distribution management of Astragali Radix. It helps to optimize the selection of planting areas and resource conservation of Chinese herbs.}, }
@article {pmid39710522, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, W and Shi, K and Iestyn Woolway, R and Zhang, Y}, title = {Chinese ice-lake line shifts under climate change.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2024.12.013}, pmid = {39710522}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid39710224, year = {2024}, author = {Kim, S and Damialis, A and Charalampopoulos, A and Voelker, DH and Rorie, AC}, title = {The Effect of Climate Change on Allergen and Irritant Exposure.}, journal = {The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. In practice}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaip.2024.12.019}, pmid = {39710224}, issn = {2213-2201}, abstract = {As the effects of anthropogenic climate change have become more apparent, the influences of climate and extreme weather events on health have continued to gain attention. The fact Earth has warmed over the past century is indisputable and the rate of warming is more alarming. As a result of anthropogenic climate change an alteration in the air mixture has occurred over time. These changes have increased human exposures to respiratory irritants such as ground level ozone, volatile organic compounds, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. A significant amount of research has investigated the effects of climate change on aeroallergens which has shown elevated temperatures and increased carbon dioxide (CO2) levels have produced prolonged and more robust pollen seasons for most taxa studied. In addition, it appears possible that exposure of some plants to air pollution may result in more allergenic pollen. Increased human exposures to these respiratory irritants and aeroallergens appears to disproportionality effect vulnerable populations throughout the world. It is essential to understand climate change is more than an environmental inconvenience and realize the effects to human health are directly related and conceivably immeasurable. It's vital to conduct additional research related to climate change and health which is collaborative, multisectoral and transdisciplinary. There should be a focus on risk reduction, mitigation and preparedness for climate change and extreme weather events for all populations around the globe.}, }
@article {pmid39709840, year = {2024}, author = {Uguen, M and Gaudron, SM and Seuront, L}, title = {Plastic pollution and marine mussels: Unravelling disparities in research efforts, biological effects and influences of global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {959}, number = {}, pages = {178078}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178078}, pmid = {39709840}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The ever-growing contamination of the environment by plastics is a major scientific and societal concern. Specifically, the study of microplastics (1 μm to 5 mm), nanoplastics (< 1 μm), and their leachates is a critical research area as they have the potential to cause detrimental effects, especially when they impact key ecological species. Marine mussels, as ecosystem engineers and filter feeders, are particularly vulnerable to this type of pollution. In this study, we reviewed the 106 articles that focus on the impacts of plastic pollution on marine mussels. First, we examined the research efforts in terms of plastic characteristics (size, polymer, shape, and leachates) and exposure conditions (concentration, duration, species, life stages, and internal factors), their disparities, and their environmental relevance. Then, we provided an overview of the effects of plastics on mussels at each organisational levels, from the smaller scales (molecular, cellular, tissue and organ impacts) to the organism level (functional, physiological, and behavioural impacts) as well as larger-scale implications (associated community impacts). We finally discussed the limited research available on multi-stressor studies involving plastics, particularly in relation to temperature stress. We identified temperature as an underestimated factor that could shape the impacts of plastics, and proposed a roadmap for future research to address their combined effects. This review also highlights the impact of plastic pollution on mussels at multiple levels and emphasises the strong disparities in research effort and the need for more holistic research, notably through the consideration of multiple stressors, with a specific focus on temperature which is likely to become an increasingly relevant forcing factor in an era of global warming. By identifying critical gaps in current knowledge, we advocate for more coordinated interdisciplinary and international collaborations and raise awareness of the need for environmental coherence in the choice and implementation of experimental protocols.}, }
@article {pmid39709544, year = {2024}, author = {Cerceo, EA and Liu, KT and Brown, EKH and Chen, C}, title = {The impact of climate change induced natural disasters on healthcare: Rethinking intravenous fluids.}, journal = {Journal of hospital medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jhm.13578}, pmid = {39709544}, issn = {1553-5606}, }
@article {pmid39709494, year = {2024}, author = {Seastedt, H and Schuetz, J and Perkins, A and Gamble, M and Sinkkonen, A}, title = {Impact of urban biodiversity and climate change on children's health and well being.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39709494}, issn = {1530-0447}, abstract = {In recent decades, biodiversity loss has greatly impacted planetary and human health. Children are at additional risk of adverse effects due to unique biological, developmental, and behavioral factors, as well as their longer exposure to an altered planet as a function of their young age. These effects are heightened for children living in vulnerable socioeconomic conditions. Here, we review the role of biodiversity loss on accelerating the consequences of climate change from the perspective of pediatric health. With the loss of biodiversity's protective role against the consequences of climate change, the adverse effects of the changing planet are impacting pediatric health. For example, trees provide shelter against heat waves, unsealed soil and wetlands mitigate flooding, and rewilded green space hosts high microbial richness and consequently supports immune and mental health. The effects of the loss of biodiversity may impact the discovery and development of novel pharmaceuticals and thus the future of children's medicine as a whole. We also highlight areas for further study and detail efforts that have been made to restore biodiversity, with the aim to improve the current and future health of local pediatric populations. IMPACT: Loss of biodiversity is occurring at a rapid pace affecting the health of the planet and disproportionately pediatric health. This paper describes the role of biodiversity loss in accelerating the impact of climate change on children's health, and highlights particularly vulnerable populations. This paper details steps that can be taken to maintain and restore biodiversity at the local and global levels to protect these populations and pediatric health in general.}, }
@article {pmid39709184, year = {2024}, author = {Solé, D and Camargos, PAM}, title = {Childhood health on a planet threatened by climate change.}, journal = {Jornal de pediatria}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jped.2024.12.002}, pmid = {39709184}, issn = {1678-4782}, }
@article {pmid39708739, year = {2024}, author = {Ejaz, MR and Jaoua, S and Lorestani, N and Shabani, F}, title = {Global climate change and its impact on the distribution and efficacy of Bacillus thuringiensis as a biopesticide.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {958}, number = {}, pages = {178091}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178091}, pmid = {39708739}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study is the first modeling exercise to assess the impacts of climate change on the current and future global distribution of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). Bt is a common Gram-positive, rod-shaped bacterium widely distributed in various environments, including soil and water. It is widely recognized as a source of effective and safe agricultural biopesticides for pest management in various climatic regions globally. In the present work, ensemble species distribution models were developed for Bt based on the generalized linear model (GLM), generalized boosting model (GBM), random forest (RF), and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) under two distinct scenarios, SSP2-4.5 (optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic) for the year of 2050, 2070, and 2090. The performance of our models was evaluated based on true skill statistics (TSS) and the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) indices. Both AUC and TSS values were observed in an acceptable range, with AUC at 0.84 and TSS at 0.512, respectively. Results indicate that most of the areas currently suitable for Bt will likely remain stable in the future, particularly Central America, Central and South Africa, South Asia, and parts of Oceania. Norway, Peru, and the UK will have notable habitat gains by 2090 based on SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. On the contrary, Serbia, Guinea, Poland, Croatia, Spain and Romania showed notable losses under both scenarios. Our results underscore Bt potential to improve pest control, crop yields, and environmental sustainability, especially in regions where agriculture is predominant. Our research highlights the need to understand ecological dynamics for future conservation and agricultural planning in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39708470, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, X and Feng, JC and Le, C and Chen, X and Diao, Y}, title = {Shellfish and algae: Climate change mitigation through green and valuable foods.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {959}, number = {}, pages = {177987}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177987}, pmid = {39708470}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Food safety issues have become increasingly severe, while the global population continues to grow. Shellfish and algae (SA), as sustainable and environmentally friendly foods, have great significance in helping countries worldwide achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. However, there is still a gap in quantitatively evaluating the carbon neutrality of SA farming. To address this gap, this study evaluated global SA farming, including aspects of carbon sinks, the drivers of carbon removal, value-added ecosystem services, and the performance of carbon reduction mechanisms. Results revealed that (1) 16.57 Mt. CO2-eq/yr were sequestered worldwide via SA farming during 2000-2020, wherein Asia was the dominant contributor to SA carbon sinks due to the abundance of production. (2) Product values were the main drivers for carbon sinks via SA farming. (3) The annual added value of SA was 501.40 million dollars during 2000-2020, of which algae farming accounted for the highest proportion. Mussel and laver were promising due to their excellent ability for carbon removal and added value. (4) It is estimated that SA farming can reduce carbon within a range from 47.72 Mt. CO2-eq/yr to 1539.95 Mt. CO2-eq/yr in 2021-2035. In general, the farming of SA is a promising way to respond to the call for carbon neutrality and food safety assurance worldwide, while the preference for mussel and laver can be further explored.}, }
@article {pmid39708314, year = {2025}, author = {Kramer, C and Page, JR and Flint, J and Flint, M}, title = {Using Animal Welfare Framing as an Effective Approach to Communicating Climate Change-A Review.}, journal = {Veterinary medicine and science}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {e70154}, pmid = {39708314}, issn = {2053-1095}, support = {//One Welfare and Sustainability Center/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Animal Welfare ; Animals ; Communication ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change and its effects continue to threaten the stability of environments worldwide, impacting nearly every species. Although framing is an established technique in climate communication science, little has been done in communicating the climate change effects from an animal welfare perspective.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of this article is to present the synthesis of evidence in existing literature on the effects of communicating climate change as an animal welfare issue.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic approach was taken based on the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) scoping review guidelines and utilizing a hybridized ProPheT-PICOS Model with modifications. Using search strings, scholarly databases within the Web of Science platform were systematically searched for English-language climate change literature that included animal welfare concepts. Articles were imported into Covidence and inclusion and exclusion criteria were then used to select articles for further analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Of an initial 4080 studies, only two papers were identified that used animal welfare framing to discuss climate change based on the inclusion/exclusion criteria.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Further research should attempt to understand and approach framing climate change concerning current understanding by geographic location and culture to close research gaps and mitigate bias in the context of climate change and its effects on animal welfare.}, }
@article {pmid39706877, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, Y and Hu, J and Wang, C and Wang, Y and Ji, M and Ma, F and Lu, Y}, title = {Estimating global geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of Ammannia coccinea under climate change based on Biomod2.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {30579}, pmid = {39706877}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2021YFC2600400//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; no//Project Strengthening coordinated approaches to reduce invasive alien species (IAS) threats to globally significant agrobiodiversity and agroecosystems in China/ ; no//Project Strengthening coordinated approaches to reduce invasive alien species (IAS) threats to globally significant agrobiodiversity and agroecosystems in China/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Oryza/growth &amp; development ; Introduced Species ; Plant Weeds/growth &amp; development ; Biodiversity ; Geography ; Agriculture/methods ; }, abstract = {Invasive alien plants pose a significant threat to biodiversity and the agricultural economy. The invasive weed (Ammannia coccinea) competes with rice in paddy fields, potentially threatening rice production. Despite the crucial need to estimate the global geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of A. coccinea for effective early warning, control strategies, and global rice security, relevant research remains scarce. This study utilized the Biomod2 platform, which integrates multiple single models into ensemble model, incorporating environmental and species data to analyze the distribution range shifts of A. coccinea under current and future climate scenarios. It also quantified and analyzed shifts in the species' ecological niche across these climate scenarios. The results indicated that the potential suitable areas for A. coccinea were mainly in Southern North America, northern and south-eastern South America, south-western Europe, the Middle East, central Africa, western Asia, south-eastern Asia, with a gradual increase in mid-high suitability habitat over time and radiation levels. While the overall ecological niche of A. coccinea remains stable, minor shifts are expected under future conditions. Temperature, precipitation, and the human impact index were the key factors influencing the future distribution of A. coccinea. Climate change contributes to the expansion of A. coccinea's highly suitable areas and shifts its ecological niche. Organizations efforts should focus on preventing the spread of A. coccinea in regions where its potential distribution overlaps with key rice production areas. The findings of this study provide critical insights into the global distribution and ecological niche dynamics of A. coccinea, aiding in the development of early warning and control strategies to mitigate its impact on biodiversity, agriculture, and particularly rice production under future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid39706095, year = {2024}, author = {Suhardono, S and Lee, CH and Suryawan, IWK}, title = {Valuation of marine integrated disaster management amidst global warming in Southern Coast of Java, Indonesia.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {211}, number = {}, pages = {117446}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117446}, pmid = {39706095}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {This research explores the valuation of integrated disaster management in the coastal regions of Southern Java, Indonesia, a locale increasingly threatened by the impacts of global warming, which exacerbates marine disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis. Employing a choice experiment methodology, the study assesses the willingness to pay among local households for various strategies designed to enhance earthquake preparedness. Three distinct scenarios are examined, each reflecting varying levels of integration and sophistication: (1) Educational empowerment and localized alert integration, which emphasizes community education and rapid, self-directed evacuation practices tailored to the immediate onset of tsunamis following seismic events. This scenario advocates for the '20-20-20' rule, underscoring self-evacuation as the most dependable survival method; (2) Strategic evacuation enablement, focusing on the logistics of evacuation and infrastructure development to facilitate timely community response; and (3) Integrated marine disaster management, which merges educational, technological, logistical, and ecological elements into a comprehensive strategy.}, }
@article {pmid39704563, year = {2024}, author = {Kish-Doto, J and Francavillo, GR}, title = {Public health professionals' views on climate change, advocacy, and health.}, journal = {Journal of communication in healthcare}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-10}, doi = {10.1080/17538068.2024.2441547}, pmid = {39704563}, issn = {1753-8076}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Public health professionals (PHPs) are seeing an increased impact of climate change on the physical and mental health of their communities. Diverse climate change strategies and interventions are needed to equitably protect people's health. Yet, limited information exists on U.S. health professionals' willingness to communicate with the public about climate change and act on the issue.<br><br>METHODS: We used a pre-existing survey to assess the willingness of 173 PHPs to participate in climate change advocacy. Variables included beliefs, attitudes and risk perceptions of climate change, perceptions of the local impact of climate change on health, communication barriers and resources for communicating about climate change and health, and the perceived role of PHPs in mitigating climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: Key findings included: (1) Belief in climate change is not unanimous among PHPs; (2) PHPs are worried about climate change (93.3%) and agree the issue of climate change is of personal importance (97.1%); (3) Participants are seeking resources/trainings (57.8%) on climate change (4)The main barriers of advocating for climate change are lack of time (54.3%) and knowledge (46.3%); (5)) Respondents acknowledge health impacts due to weather-related events are caused by human activities (83.2%) and (6) views of climate change are determined by willingness to advocate and take action to mitigate climate change (R[2] = .251; p = < .001).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Although the majority of PHPs believe climate change is happening, this belief is not unanimous and steadfast. Opportunities remain on how health professionals can better inform, educate, and empower others about climate change and health.}, }
@article {pmid39703746, year = {2025}, author = {Edward, M and Heniedy, AM and Saminu, A and Florence Mary, JJ and Ahmed, DA and Engmann, ST and Onyeaghala, C and Shah, S}, title = {Climate change and contagion: the emerging threat of zoonotic diseases in Africa.}, journal = {Infection ecology &amp; epidemiology}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2441534}, pmid = {39703746}, issn = {2000-8686}, abstract = {This article investigates the escalating occurrence of zoonotic diseases in Africa, attributing their spread to climate change and human activities. Africa's unique combination of biodiversity, reliance on animal husbandry, and swift urbanization heightens its susceptibility. Climate change disrupts ecosystems and animal habitats, intensifying human-wildlife interactions. Urbanization, inadequate sanitation, and insufficient healthcare infrastructure further facilitate disease spread. Climate-induced displacement adds another layer of complexity. Mitigation strategies include improving surveillance systems, fostering early detection via point-of-care diagnostics and digital contact tracing, and investing in vaccines and therapeutics. Our purpose of this is to advocate for sustainable land use, robust community-level public health systems, international cooperation, and resource-sharing. We also emphasize the need for effective vector-control policies, dedicated research funding, and annual awareness, vaccination, and early detection campaigns in endemic regions.}, }
@article {pmid39701899, year = {2024}, author = {Sedik, S and Egger, M and Hoenigl, M}, title = {Climate Change and Medical Mycology.}, journal = {Infectious disease clinics of North America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.idc.2024.11.002}, pmid = {39701899}, issn = {1557-9824}, abstract = {This review explores how climate change influences fungal disease dynamics, focusing on emergence of new fungal pathogens, increased antifungal resistance, expanding geographic ranges of fungal pathogens, and heightened host susceptibility. Rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns enhance fungal growth and resistance mechanisms, complicating treatment efforts. Climate-driven geographic shifts are expanding the range of diseases like Valley fever, histoplasmosis, and blastomycosis. Additionally, natural disasters exacerbated by climate change increase exposure to fungal pathogens through environmental disruptions and trauma. Many of those impacts affect primarily those already disadvantaged by social determinants of health putting them at increased risk for fungal diseases.}, }
@article {pmid39701550, year = {2024}, author = {Urrutia-Pereira, M and Solé, D}, title = {Impact of climate change and air pollution on childhood respiratory health.}, journal = {Jornal de pediatria}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jped.2024.11.007}, pmid = {39701550}, issn = {1678-4782}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of climate change and air pollution on children's respiratory health.<br><br>DATA SOURCE: Narrative review of articles published in English, Portuguese, French, and Spanish in the last decade in the following databases: PubMed, Google Scholar, EMBASE, and SciELO. The keywords used in this search were: climate changes OR air pollution OR indoor pollutants OR wildfires AND human health OR children OR exposome.<br><br>DATA SYNTHESIS: Increases in extreme weather events, such as heat waves, forest fires, floods, droughts, hurricanes, and dust storms, put children's respiratory system health at greater risk.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The growing global increase in respiratory diseases in recent decades raises questions about the impact of environmental factors resulting from industrialization, urbanization, and climate change on the individual's exposome. Understanding it better is a key point for better treatment.}, }
@article {pmid39701540, year = {2024}, author = {Prates-Baldez, D and Ornell, FR and Scherer, JN and Diefenthaeler, SM and Kapczinski, F and Balanzá-Martínez, V and Hauck, S}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health: The Urgent Warning of Brazil and Spain's 2024 Catastrophic Floods.}, journal = {Spanish journal of psychiatry and mental health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.sjpmh.2024.12.001}, pmid = {39701540}, issn = {2950-2853}, }
@article {pmid39701527, year = {2024}, author = {Rotz, CA and Mitloehner, F}, title = {United States Dairy Farms and Global Warming.}, journal = {Journal of dairy science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3168/jds.2024-25360}, pmid = {39701527}, issn = {1525-3198}, abstract = {Several metrics have developed for combining the warming effects of various greenhouse gases (GHG). The metric used can affect the life cycle assessment and comparison of dairy production systems due to the weighting placed on long- versus short-lived gases in the atmosphere. Global warming potential with a time horizon of 100 years (GWP-100) has become the standard but metrics are also available for other time horizons. Metrics for 20-, 100- and 500-year horizons gave average farmgate emission intensities of 2.08, 0.98 and 0.50 kg CO2e/kg of fat-and-protein-corrected-milk produced for current US dairy farms. Compared with the use of GWP metrics, which represent energy absorption, use of global temperature-change potential (GTP), combined global temperature-change potential (CGTP) or global warming potential star (GWP*) reduced the warming effect of methane relative to other GHG. These metrics representing temperature change reduced the warming potential of US dairy farms by 17 to 49% compared with the use of GWP-100. The metrics used also affected the comparison of individual production systems providing different life cycle assessments of management practices. Use of GWP-100 metrics indicated that warming from GHG emissions of US dairy farms increased 11-15% between 1971 and 2020, while the use of GTP, CGTP and GWP* metrics showed little or no effect on global temperature change over the 50-year period. Use of GWP-100 metrics indicated that GHG emissions related to milk production on dairy farms represented 1.6% of all US GHG emissions in 2020 while use of other metrics ranged from 0.9 and 1.8%. Although all approaches for representing the integrated warming impact of GHG have benefits and challenges, approaches such as CGTP and GWP* that account for the rate of methane emission relative to the oxidation rate in the atmosphere provide a more process-based assessment of the long-term impact of dairy farms on global temperature and perhaps a more scientifically sound approach for assessing strategies to mitigate the warming effect of dairy farms.}, }
@article {pmid39700750, year = {2024}, author = {Angelini, R and Lima, MAL and Lira, AS and Lucena-Frédou, F and Frédou, T and Bertrand, A and Giarrizzo, T and Steenbeek, J and Coll, M and Keppeler, FW}, title = {The projected impacts of climate change and fishing pressure on a tropical marine food web.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {204}, number = {}, pages = {106909}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106909}, pmid = {39700750}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Small-scale fisheries, especially those from developing countries, are vital for millions. Understanding the impact of environmental and human factors on fish stocks and yields and how they might change is crucial to ensure the sustainable use of aquatic resources. We developed an ecosystem model using Ecopath and Ecosim (EwE) to investigate changes in target species biomass and ecosystem attributes over 83 years (2017-2100) caused by different scenarios of fishing pressure and ocean warming in the Brazilian Northeastern continental shelf. The simulations considered three IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 [0.42 °C], RCP4.5 [1.53 °C], and RCP8.5 [4.02 °C]) and four fishing pressure scenarios: two with increased pressure (10% and 30%) and two with decreased pressure (-10% and -30%). The Ecopath model indicated that the Brazilian Northeastern continental shelf ecosystem is a grazing-based system with high biomass in macroalgae and detritus compartments, supporting a diverse community of consumers. Our simulations projected overall reductions in the biomass of target species, mainly under extreme climate change. Increasing temperatures and fishing efforts reduced the biomass of large predatory species and the food web length in several scenarios. Although projected changes in ecological network and information metrics were of lower magnitude, results predicted declines in production/respiration ratio, material cycling, and ascendency (variable related to trophic specialization, internalization, and material cycling) with climate change. These declines were likely linked to increased respiration rates, metabolic costs, and lower trophic efficiency with elevated temperatures. Together, our results show how climate change and fishing pressure can change the structure of coastal ecosystems, potentially leading to undesirable alternative states for fisheries. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of ecosystem-based modeling in projecting likely trajectories of change, which can be especially useful for resource management in data-limited conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39700686, year = {2024}, author = {Beevers, S and Assareh, N and Beddows, A and Stewart, G and Holland, M and Fecht, D and Liu, Y and Goodman, A and Walton, H and Brand, C and Evangelopoulos, D and Wood, D and Vu, T and Dajnak, D}, title = {Climate change policies reduce air pollution and increase physical activity: Benefits, costs, inequalities, and indoor exposures.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {195}, number = {}, pages = {109164}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2024.109164}, pmid = {39700686}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {The burden of diseases attributable to air pollution is comparable to those of global health risks such as unhealthy diets and tobacco smoking, with many air pollution sources also emitting climate heating gases. In this UK study we estimated the co-benefits of Net Zero (NZ) climate policy on the health benefits of air pollution reduction, increased active travel, outdoor exposure inequalities and indoor air pollution changes. The study focused on two of the largest UK sources, road transport and building heating, with comparisons made between NZ and UK existing policy, referred to as Business as Usual (BAU). Particulate matter (PM2.5), Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Ozone (O3) projections were made between 2019 and 2050, with emphasis placed upon the NZ co-benefits in 2030 and 2040. We compared the UK BAU scenarios with the Climate Change Committee's (CCC) Balanced Net Zero Pathway (BNZP) and Widespread Innovation (WI) pathway. Compared to BAU predictions, BNZP assumptions lead to more electric vehicles, reduced vehicle km, more low carbon building heating, and reduced emissions of NO2 and PM2.5. By 2040 under BNZP, relative to BAU, the buildings sector was predicted to be three times more effective at reducing PM2.5 than road transport. To help reduce the inequality gap the NZ building transition was tailored toward those most in need. Outdoor air pollution exposure inequalities prevailed across the socioeconomic spectrum, especially for NO2, but were less pronounced due in part to NZ policies. Core air quality health benefits for the BNZP buildings sector were £21.3 billion (16.4 to 26.2) by 2050 and £98.4 billion (75.7 to 121.1) by 2154. For the transport sector the health benefits were £9.1 billion (7.0 to 11.2) by 2050 and £36.5 billion (28.1 to 44.9) by 2154. NZ building sector operating costs did not achieve break-even via efficiency savings, but with Greenhouse Gas (GHG) (lower benefits) break-even was achieved in 2052. With additional air pollution health benefits, building-sector time to break-even improved by between 3.1 (2.5 to 4.7) and 6.3 (4.7 to 7.6) years to between 2046 and 2049. Analysis found that removing gas cooking at home, for NZ, may result in greater concentration reductions than outdoor air pollution for NO2. Net Zero health and economic co-benefits are large, as are the changes needed, requiring political leadership and public engagement. Our findings are relevant to other countries facing the NZ transition.}, }
@article {pmid39700540, year = {2024}, author = {Varling, AS and Chrysochoidis, V and Bisinella, V and Valverde-Pérez, B and Christensen, TH}, title = {Climate change impacts of biological treatment of liquid digestate from the anaerobic digestion of food waste.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {193}, number = {}, pages = {339-349}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2024.12.013}, pmid = {39700540}, issn = {1879-2456}, abstract = {The liquid fraction of digestate (LFD) from anaerobic digestion of food waste contains high nitrogen concentrations, and in some countries, the LFD is treated as wastewater. We modelled alternative LFD treatments, including pretreatment with the partial nitritation Anammox (PNA) process. The PNA effluent is discharged to the sewers to undergo further treatment by conventional nitrification and (post- or pre-) denitrification. Life-cycle inventories were developed for the LFD treatment alternatives, including N2O emissions and electricity consumption estimates. The climate change (CC) impact was estimated using life cycle assessment in three different energy systems ranging from fossil-based to fully renewable. In the fossil energy system, pretreatment with PNA was attractive, while in the more renewable energy systems, the PNA process did not improve the CC account due to high N2O emissions. Pre-denitrification is the most attractive LFD treatment technology in a fully renewable energy system. Linking the LFD treatment to the anaerobic digestion of food waste showed that LFD treatment is a significant contributor to the overall CC account. As we move towards less fossil-based electricity, the anaerobic digestion of food waste constitutes a CC load of 350-450 kg CO2-eq/tonne biowaste, of which up to a third can be attributed to the LFD treatment. The N2O emissions are the main contributor, constituting up to 50 % in a fossil-based energy system and even higher in a renewable energy system. We conclude that the LFD treatment must be addressed in assessing anaerobic digestion when the LFD is discharged to the sewer. Our study also points to the need to find alternative ways of managing the LFD.}, }
@article {pmid39699788, year = {2024}, author = {Khoualfia, A and Bardi, W}, title = {The effect of climate change on economic growth in European countries: an empirical evidence from Panel ARDL approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39699788}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {This paper examined the impact of climate change on economic growth using panel data from 20 European countries during the period 1990-2020 and the estimation techniques of cointegration and the ARDL model. The empirical results reveal that precipitation; labour force and CO2 emissions have a positive effect on long-term economic growth in sample countries. However, temperature, foreign direct investment, and urbanization have a negative effect on growth over the same period. Therefore, our study highlights the complex links between climate, demographic, and economic developments in European countries over the past three decades. Urbanizations, as a driver of urban development, and FDI, indicators of economic attractiveness, influence not only economic dynamics but also environmental impacts, exacerbating the challenges of CO2 emissions and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39699057, year = {2024}, author = {Martin, D and Brewster, P and Crowley, ST}, title = {Preparing for stormy weather: building VA health system resilience for dialysis emergency preparedness in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in nephrology and hypertension}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/MNH.0000000000001054}, pmid = {39699057}, issn = {1473-6543}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change has been implicated as the driver for the increasing number, intensity, duration, and consequences of catastrophic weather events. As a result of extreme weather events, climate change has also been implicated as an important mediator of adverse kidney health outcomes, not only increasing the risk for the development of acute and chronic kidney diseases, but also disrupting the delivery of critical kidney health services. In particular, the delivery of dialysis services during major emergencies remains an ongoing and increasing problem, with a recognized need for improved emergency preparedness and disaster management (EP-DM) strategies to mitigate the increased risk of morbidity and mortality associated with missed dialysis treatment.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: There are increasing reports detailing the challenges of kidney dialysis care in times of crisis, to include those resulting from both man-made and natural disasters. Optimized management of the high-risk vulnerable dialysis patient population must include both facility-facing comprehensive continuity of operations and emergency response plans, and ongoing patient-facing emergency preparedness education.<br><br>SUMMARY: This review discusses the adverse impact of climate change-related natural disasters on the delivery of dialysis services, and the evolving EP-DM strategies developed and implemented by the Veterans Health Administration (VA) to optimize the care and well being of the vulnerable end stage kidney disease (ESKD) patient population.}, }
@article {pmid39698452, year = {2024}, author = {Li, X and Wu, T and Kang, C and Zhang, X and Zhang, J and Yang, C and Yuan, Q and Zhou, T and Xiao, C}, title = {Simulation of Pseudostellaria heterophylla distribution in China: assessing habitat suitability and bioactive component abundance under future climate change scenariosplant components.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1498229}, pmid = {39698452}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Pseudostellaria heterophylla is used in traditional Chinese medicine, so ensuring an adequate supply of plant material with high levels of bioactive components is important.<br><br>METHODS: Using an optimized maximum entropy niche model and assays of bioactive components from cultivation samples, this study started from the plant's natural distribution area and estimated correlations of ecological factors with not only abundance of the plant but also abundance of polysaccharides and heterophyllin B. These correlations were combined with the spatial analysis function in ArcGIS to generate maps of the suitability of different habitats in China for cultivating P. heterophylla under current climate conditions and different models of climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: The following ecological factors emerged as particularly important for habitat suitability: precipitation of driest month and driest quarter, annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, temperature seasonality, and mean temperature of coldest quarter, contributing to a cumulative total of 87%. Under current climate conditions, optimum habitats of P. heterophylla were mainly distributed in the southwestern region (Guizhou) and eastern regions (Anhui, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangsu) of China, and only 0.197&#xd7;10[6] km[2] of these areas were optimum habitat. In future climate change scenarios, the optimal habitat area of P. heterophylla exhibited an increase across different time periods under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario. By the 2090s, distribution area of high heterophyllin B content under SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios will increase significantly, distribution area of high polysaccharide content had little change under all three climate scenarios (SSP 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 5-8.5). The center of mass of suitable habitat migrates southwestward under scenario SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5, while it migrates northward under scenario SSP 5-8.5. Under the three climate scenarios, the center of mass of suitable habitat migrated consistently with that of high polysaccharide content but differed from that of high heterophyllin B content.<br><br>CONCLUSION: These findings provide a crucial foundation for cultivating P. heterophylla with superior medicinal properties, developing adaptive management strategies to enhance conservation efforts, and ensuring sustainable utilization in the face of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39698095, year = {2024}, author = {Kumar, S and Khanduri, VP}, title = {Impact of climate change on the Himalayan alpine treeline vegetation.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {23}, pages = {e40797}, pmid = {39698095}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The Himalayan alpine treeline varies depending on altitude and aspects, supporting a variety of plant species. In recent years, climate changes have exerted pressure on the vegetation in this region, challenging its adaptation to rapidly changing environmental conditions. This systematic review commenced by formulating a research question on the impact of climate change on Himalayan alpine treeline vegetation and conducted a thorough literature search, adhering to the PRISMA protocol. The rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate-related factors have initiated an upward shift in the treeline that threatens the unique biodiversity of the region. Indeed, in various parts of the Himalayas, there is evidence of the treeline moving upwards, altering plant regeneration and growing season, and impacting soil properties. There is a shift of vegetation ranging from 0.80 to 503.00 m in Himalayan treeline regions have been reported in various studies. Abies spectabilis and Betula utilis are the most sensitive, showing the highest upward shifts due to climate change. The repercussions of climate change on the Himalayan alpine treeline are anticipated to have significant ecological implications. Most species at the Himalayan alpine treeline exhibit poor regeneration status, while some others reveals good, fair, or no regeneration. Consequently, new regeneration patterns are emerging. Changes in soil temperature and physicochemical properties due to climate warming are ultimately affecting Himalayan alpine treeline vegetation. Additionally, shifts in the growing season and phenophases of various tree species have also been observed. The profound and far-reaching impacts of climate change on the Himalayan alpine treeline necessitates implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies to safeguard the delicate alpine ecosystems of the region.}, }
@article {pmid39697837, year = {2024}, author = {Dodd, S and Kragh-Furbo, M and Davies, J and Butterfield, S and Morris, A and Brown, H}, title = {Health impacts of climate change in the UK: A qualitative synthesis detailing the conjuncture of social structure, extreme weather, and mental health.}, journal = {SSM. Qualitative research in health}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {100475}, pmid = {39697837}, issn = {2667-3215}, abstract = {This qualitative synthesis explores the experiences of UK communities facing growing health risks from climate change and extreme weather. The eight included studies show the profound impacts of extreme weather events such as floods on mental health, including challenges to self-identity and anxiety from the fear of flooding returning. Included data reveal individual and household impacts of extreme weather are mediated by a complex interaction of institutional support, community support, gender inequalities and personal agency. These factors are assessed against the backdrop of broader concepts in the social science and adaptation literature, including the role of the state, the inseparability of nature and society, the overlooked role of social structure, and environmental justice. It is argued that the use of qualitative synthesis methods in this topic area allows for an interconnected and context-sensitive analysis of the health impacts of climate change facing communities, diverging from other analytical approaches through inclusion of considerations such as social power, community dynamics, and the inter-relation of institutional action, community cohesion and individual agency. The resulting findings show how locally specific and highly contextual qualitative data can be used by those seeking to understand health risks from climate change within a locality.}, }
@article {pmid39697146, year = {2024}, author = {Clark, CM and Coughlin, JG and Phelan, J and Martin, G and Austin, K and Salem, M and Sabo, RD and Horn, K and Thomas, RQ and Dalton, RM}, title = {Winners and Losers From Climate Change: An Analysis of Climate Thresholds for Tree Growth and Survival for Roughly 150 Species Across the Contiguous United States.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {12}, pages = {e17597}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17597}, pmid = {39697146}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; United States ; *Trees/growth &amp; development ; *Temperature ; Forests ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Changes in temperature and precipitation are already influencing US forests and that will continue in the future even as we mitigate climate change. Using spatiotemporally matched data for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP), we used simulated annealing to estimate critical thresholds for changes in the growth and survival of roughly 150 tree species (153 spp. for growth, 159 spp. for survival) across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We found that growth of nearly one-third of tree species assessed (44 spp.) decreased with any increase in MAT (42-49 species), whereas fewer responded negatively to projected regional trends in MAP (< 20 species each in the east and west). Hypothetical increases in temperature (+1°C, +2°C) increased average annual growth in the Central East and Pacific Northwest and decreased growth over large areas of the Rockies and Southeast, while decadal survival generally decreased with temperature. Average annual growth and decadal survival had unfavorable associations with projected precipitation, generally decreasing with wetter conditions (+25%) in the east and decreasing with drier conditions (-25%) in the west. Beyond these averages, there were species that positively and negatively responded nearly everywhere across the CONUS, suggesting changes in forest composition are underway. We identified only eight species out of ~150 assessed that were tolerant to increases in temperature, and 24 species in the east and seven in the west were tolerant to regionally specific trends in precipitation (increases in the east and decreases in the west). We assessed confidence on a 5-point scale (1-5) for five aspects of uncertainty. Average confidence scores were generally high, though some species and metrics had low confidence scores especially for survival. These findings have significant implications for the future national forest carbon sink and for conservation efforts in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39696553, year = {2024}, author = {Cosh, SM and Williams, SE and Lykins, AD and Bartik, W and Tully, PJ}, title = {Detecting and classifying eco-anxiety: development of clinical cut-off scores for the climate change anxiety scale.}, journal = {BMC psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {738}, pmid = {39696553}, issn = {2050-7283}, mesh = {Humans ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; *Anxiety/diagnosis/psychology ; Australia ; Psychiatric Status Rating Scales/standards ; Depression/diagnosis/psychology ; Stress, Psychological/diagnosis/psychology ; Psychological Distress ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change anxiety, that is worry and fear in relation to the awareness of the impacts of climate change, is widely observed around the world. Some evidence suggests that while climate change anxiety can, at times, be adaptive, a growing body of research has reported that climate change anxiety is also related to a range of negative mental health outcomes and psychological distress. Currently, however, there is limited ability to assess for elevated levels of climate change anxiety and to identify those who may need support. The present study, therefore, aimed to develop clinical cut-off scores on a measure of climate change anxiety.<br><br>METHODS: A largely representative sample of Australian young adults (aged 16-25&#xa0;years) completed measures of psychological distress (Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale-21) and the Climate Change Anxiety Scale. Markers of clinically meaningful psychological distress - elevated depression, anxiety, and stress symptoms-were used to classify cases. Receiver Operating Characteristics analyses were performed to assess the predictive ability of the indicators of psychological distress (mild, moderate, severe, and extremely severe thresholds of anxiety, depression, and stress symptoms) for detecting climate change anxiety and to ascertain optimal cut-off scores.<br><br>RESULTS: The Area Under the Curve was acceptable to moderate for detecting climate change anxiety across all analyses. Across symptom severity thresholds and markers of psychological distress, based on consideration of balancing sensitivity and specificity, results consistently suggested that a cut-score of 21 was indicative of mild-moderate climate change anxiety, with a cut-off score of 23 indicating severe-extremely severe climate change anxiety.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The proposed cut-offs can feasibly be used to identify those with elevated climate change anxiety. Use of these cut-off scores can inform research as well as be used to guide screening, assessment, and inform clinical practice. Results also highlight a high rate of climate change anxiety in young adults.}, }
@article {pmid39696199, year = {2024}, author = {Turzáková, J and Kohanová, D and Solgajová, A and Sollár, T}, title = {Association between climate change and patient health outcomes: a mixed-methods systematic review.}, journal = {BMC nursing}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {900}, pmid = {39696199}, issn = {1472-6955}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change poses significant threats to the environment, biodiversity, and socioeconomic stability worldwide. Its impact on human health, particularly within healthcare systems, is growing in concern. Nurses, as front-line healthcare workers, play a crucial role in addressing climate-related health risks. However, there is a gap in understanding nursing perspectives on climate change and its implications for patient health outcomes.<br><br>AIM: To synthesize empirical evidence on the association between climate change and patient health outcomes from a nursing perspective.<br><br>METHODS: A mixed-methods systematic review was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). The search was carried out in January 2024 in six scientific databases including CINAHL, PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, Web of Science, and OVID Nursing. Studies focusing on climate change and patient health outcomes from a nursing perspective were included. Data extraction, quality appraisal, and synthesis were performed systematically.<br><br>RESULTS: The systematic review included 18 studies of a mainly quantitative nature. Three main themes emerged as follows: Climate Healthcare Interplay; Future Nurses as Agents of Change; and Navigating Sustainability Challenges in Nursing. These themes highlighted nurses' awareness of the interrelation between climate and health, the need for environmental education in nursing, and the challenges that hinder sustainable nursing practices.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This review underscores the importance of integrating climate change topics into nursing education and fostering organizational support for sustainable nursing practices. Addressing these challenges is essential for nurses to mitigate the health risks posed by climate change effectively.}, }
@article {pmid39694671, year = {2024}, author = {Niedzwiedz, CL and Olsen, JR and Rizeq, J and Afework, T and Hill-Harding, CKV and Shaw, RJ and Thomas, R and Kariuki, SM and Katikireddi, SV and Weaver, AJ and Martin, G and Parr, H and Papies, EK}, title = {Coming to terms with climate change: a glossary for climate change impacts on mental health and well-being.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and community health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/jech-2024-222716}, pmid = {39694671}, issn = {1470-2738}, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to global health. Its effects on physical health are increasingly recognised, but mental health impacts have received less attention. The mental health effects of climate change can be direct (resulting from personal exposure to acute and chronic climatic changes), indirect (via the impact on various socioeconomic, political and environmental determinants of mental health) and overarching (via knowledge, education and awareness of climate change). These impacts are unequally distributed according to long-standing structural inequities which are exacerbated by climate change. We outline key concepts and pathways through which climate change may affect mental health and explore the responses to climate change at different levels, from emotions to politics, to highlight the need for multilevel action. We provide a broad reference to help guide researchers, practitioners and policy-makers in the use and understanding of different terms in this rapidly growing interdisciplinary field.}, }
@article {pmid39694592, year = {2025}, author = {Ford, CA}, title = {SAHM and the IAAH Respond to Climate Change and Need to Promote Agency Among Adolescents and Young Adults.}, journal = {The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine}, volume = {76}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1016/j.jadohealth.2024.10.005}, pmid = {39694592}, issn = {1879-1972}, }
@article {pmid39694400, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, N and Liu, S}, title = {Modeling of periodic input Ornstein-Uhlenbeck temperature-tick-borne disease transmission coupling mechanism under climate change.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {261}, number = {}, pages = {107490}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107490}, pmid = {39694400}, issn = {1873-6254}, abstract = {Given the rapid increase in climate change, investigating the impact of climate change on the transmission mechanism of tick-borne diseases is imperative. In order to fully capture the influence of the seasonal variation of temperature, environmental disturbances and the co-feeding transmission on the spread of tick-borne diseases, we propose a novel stochastic dynamical model that couples the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck temperature equation with periodic input to the tick-borne disease model. Through theoretical analysis, we derive sufficient conditions for the extinction of tick populations and the eradication of tick-borne diseases, as well as the stochastic persistence conditions of the system. In numerical simulations, we find that the periodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck temperature equation can effectively fit the actual temperature data in low, medium, and high latitude regions of China. In risk assessment, we find that at the spatial perspective, low-latitude areas have a higher risk of tick-borne diseases, requiring enhanced control measures; from a temporal perspective, compared to the past, the current stage presents a greater risk of tick-borne diseases when preventive measures are not implemented. Additionally, we observe that larger noise of environment for tick populations favors the extinction of tick populations, while smaller temperature fluctuations, noise on infected hosts and ticks, as well as higher temperature regression rate, are more likely to lead to the extinction of tick-borne diseases. These findings provide crucial insights into understanding the impact of climate change on the transmission mechanism of tick-borne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid39693697, year = {2024}, author = {Tiitta, I and Kopra, J and McDermott-Levy, R and Jaakkola, JJK and Kuosmanen, L}, title = {Climate change perceptions among nursing students: A comparative study between Finland and the United States.}, journal = {Nurse education today}, volume = {146}, number = {}, pages = {106541}, doi = {10.1016/j.nedt.2024.106541}, pmid = {39693697}, issn = {1532-2793}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Nurses play a key role in combating climate change-related health risks by promoting adaptation and mitigation strategies. Their efforts are essential in educating patients and communities about the health impacts of climate change and sustainable healthcare practices. Nursing curricula are evolving to include climate change and sustainability. The goal is to prepare future nurses to effectively address climate change factors affecting health and to support the transition towards more sustainable healthcare systems.<br><br>AIM: To study the perceptions of nursing students in Finland and the United States (U.S.) regarding climate change, focusing on their awareness and attitudes.<br><br>DESIGN: A quantitative, cross-sectional study.<br><br>METHOD: In this study climate change awareness, concern, motivation, and behavior patterns of Finnish and U.S nursing students were surveyed and analyzed. Data were collected from an online survey using the Climate Health and Nursing Tool (CHANT). The data were collected from Finnish students (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;351) from February to June 2023 and for comparison we examined data collected from U.S. (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;352) in 2022. Data were analyzed using SPSS and AMOS program.<br><br>RESULTS: U.S. nursing students were found to have higher factor loadings, indicating a stronger connection between the measured factors and their related concepts compared to Finnish nursing students. Finnish students also received good factor loadings, but differences appeared in the correlations between awareness, concern, and motivation, and in the consistency of behavior at home and at work.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Findings from study indicate that U.S. students have higher overall awareness but weaker links between awareness and workplace behavior, whereas Finnish nursing students show more consistent behavior both personally and professionally. Nursing faculty could use this knowledge to engage nursing students in learning about the impact of climate change on human health and prepare future nurses to meet challenges of climate change on patient populations.}, }
@article {pmid39692556, year = {2024}, author = {Laverentz, DM and Young, E}, title = {Creating a Public Service Announcement as a Teaching Strategy to Advocate for Populations at Risk due to Climate Change.}, journal = {Nursing education perspectives}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39692556}, issn = {1536-5026}, abstract = {The 2022 National League for Nursing Vision Statement, Climate Change and Health, identified gaps in nursing education regarding the issue of climate change and its impact on at-risk populations. Our innovative teaching strategy requires nursing students to use clinical judgment to synthesize ideas and communicate the health risks of climate change for population at risk in a brief video or public service announcement. This teaching strategy can prepare nursing students to advocate for population health.}, }
@article {pmid39691193, year = {2024}, author = {Wanjala, G and Pius, LO and Strausz, P and Kusza, S}, title = {Leveraging Agri-advocacy to promote animal genetic diversity for climate change mitigation: Kenya and Tanzania perspective.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {23}, pages = {e40851}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40851}, pmid = {39691193}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The role that genetic diversity in animal genetic resources (AnGR) plays in mitigating the effects of climate change on the global protein supply is of the utmost significance. East Africa historically played a pivotal role in the dispersal of domesticated livestock species across the African continent. At present, it maintains a substantial contribution to worldwide biodiversity as a result of its reservoir of a diverse array of AnGR, characterized by genetic and species diversity. A considerable reduction in the genetic diversity of AnGR has been documented in numerous studies, giving rise to concerns regarding the sustainability of animal protein supply in the face of climate change. The objective of this article is to outline prospective roles that advocacy and management organizations specializing in AnGRs may undertake to aid in the conservation of AnGR genetic diversity in East Africa. Moreover, it provides a prospective framework and structure for advocacy that extends from the farmers, to the higher-level (regional farmers association). We believe that advocating for the promotion of genetic diversity at the regional level will have a significant impact at the national and further at global scale.}, }
@article {pmid39690524, year = {2024}, author = {Groover, A and Holbrook, NM and Polle, A and Sala, A and Medlyn, B and Brodersen, C and Pittermann, J and Gersony, J and Sokołowska, K and Bogar, L and McDowell, N and Spicer, R and David-Schwartz, R and Keller, S and Tschaplinski, TJ and Preisler, Y}, title = {Tree drought physiology: critical research questions and strategies for mitigating climate change effects on forests.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.20326}, pmid = {39690524}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {89243022SSC0000//Biological and Environmental Research/ ; //Northern Research Station/ ; 1856450//NSF-IOS/ ; 1029588//USDA NIFA/ ; //New Phytologist Trust/ ; //US Forest Service/ ; //National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy's Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment-Tropics/ ; ERKP886//Center for Bioenergy Innovation (CBI), US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program/ ; 2222348//NSF ORCC/ ; }, abstract = {Droughts of increasing severity and frequency are a primary cause of forest mortality associated with climate change. Yet, fundamental knowledge gaps regarding the complex physiology of trees limit the development of more effective management strategies to mitigate drought effects on forests. Here, we highlight some of the basic research needed to better understand tree drought physiology and how new technologies and interdisciplinary approaches can be used to address them. Our discussion focuses on how trees change wood development to mitigate water stress, hormonal responses to drought, genetic variation underlying adaptive drought phenotypes, how trees 'remember' prior stress exposure, and how symbiotic soil microbes affect drought response. Next, we identify opportunities for using research findings to enhance or develop new strategies for managing drought effects on forests, ranging from matching genotypes to environments, to enhancing seedling resilience through nursery treatments, to landscape-scale monitoring and predictions. We conclude with a discussion of the need for co-producing research with land managers and extending research to forests in critical ecological regions beyond the temperate zone.}, }
@article {pmid39690499, year = {2024}, author = {Fu, Z and Zhan, Q and Lenoir, J and Wang, S and Qian, H and Yang, J and Sun, W and Mbuni, YM and Ngumbau, VM and Hu, G and Yan, X and Wang, Q and Chen, SC and Zhou, Y}, title = {Climate change drives plant diversity attrition at the summit of Mount Kenya.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.20344}, pmid = {39690499}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {SAJC202401//Scientific Research Program of Sino-Africa Joint Research Center/ ; 32370217//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32470225//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; jxsq2023101079//Thousand Talents Program of Jiangxi Province/ ; }, }
@article {pmid39690189, year = {2024}, author = {Yu, H and van de Pas, R and Stanojev, J}, title = {How climate change is changing calendars - and what to do about it.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {636}, number = {8043}, pages = {571}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-04190-8}, pmid = {39690189}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39689533, year = {2024}, author = {S, L and Laukka, V and Silvennoinen, K}, title = {Climate change impacts of municipal water sector and mitigation pathways: A national scale analysis and perspectives to carbon neutrality.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123732}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123732}, pmid = {39689533}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The growing concern on global warming has pushed to set ambitious targets of carbon neutrality or net zero at the water sector. Meanwhile, poor data availability has been reported to restrict the national assessment of climate impacts and mitigation strategies in water sector. In national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, water sector is embedded in other sectors' emissions making it difficult to monitor separately. This study presents a national scale evaluation of climate change impacts for water sector in Finland based on life cycle analysis (LCA). In addition, the effectiveness of currently available emission reduction measures is evaluated by scenario analysis until the year 2035. According to the results, the life cycle climate change impacts from the Finnish municipal water sector were 0,67 (0,46-0,88) million tonnes CO2-eq./year (142.8 (98.9-187.1) kg CO2-eq./person/year). Drinking water services accounted for 12.5-13.9 % and wastewater services 86.1-87.4 % of the total emissions. With currently feasible emission reduction measures, the climate change impacts could be reduced approximately 14-30 % in total by 2035. The aim of carbon neutrality in the water sector was found to be unrealistic to achieve with existing and currently feasible measures for Finland and thus significant new emission mitigation measures are needed. The vague definition of carbon neutrality and system boundary of water sector as well as the uncertainties related to the assessment of direct emissions, undermine the credibility of the ambitiously set target. Prioritizing emission offsets to reach the target may inadvertently lead to unintended negative consequences due to the limitations and incompleteness of offset methods.}, }
@article {pmid39689528, year = {2024}, author = {Huang, W and Wang, Z and Qu, F and Zhao, C and Zheng, M and Zhang, Z and Liu, S and Xu, Q and Zhang, X and Zhao, L}, title = {Global distribution pattern and conservation of the cosmopolitan cold-water coral species Desmophyllum dianthus under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123674}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123674}, pmid = {39689528}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Global climate change impacts marine ecosystems differently across oceanic regions and depths. Thus, understanding how widespread key species adapt globally and locally to multidimensional climate change is crucial for targeted conservation. This study focuses on the cosmopolitan cold-water coral (CWC) Desmophyllum dianthus using ecological niche models (ENMs) to explore climate adaptation and conservation strategies. The findings indicated that D. dianthus occupied a broad ecological niche but had low ecological niche overlap across populations, suggesting local adaptations and supporting population-level ENMs. The models predicted that over 80% of D. dianthus suitable habitats would persist under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios by the 2100s, potentially increasing to 95% as new habitats emerge, demonstrating its robust adaptability. However, localized environmental shifts could precipitate habitat losses in areas like the Reykjanes Ridge, Rockall Plateau, Mediterranean Sea, and Patagonian Shelf. We also applied Linkage Mapper to identify potential ecological corridors that intertwined nearshore macrohabitat patches with deep-sea stepping-stone habitats such as escarpments, seamounts, and ridges, maintaining population connectivity. Despite this, the habitats and ecological corridors of D. dianthus remained largely unprotected, with vulnerable portions lying outside of marine protected areas (MPAs), thus underscoring the urgent need for more MPA. These spatial-temporal predictions provide essential insights for the conservation and management of cosmopolitan CWC D. dianthus and serve as a benchmark for the adaptive survival of similar taxa.}, }
@article {pmid39689240, year = {2024}, author = {Bellizzi, S and Darwish, M and Elnakib, S}, title = {Impact of displacement due to climate change on female genital mutilations.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jtm/taae154}, pmid = {39689240}, issn = {1708-8305}, }
@article {pmid39689234, year = {2024}, author = {Palvi, A and Lindström, L and Margus, A}, title = {Simulated winter climate change reveals greater cold than warm temperature tolerance in Chrysolina polita (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae).}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/ee/nvae120}, pmid = {39689234}, issn = {1938-2936}, support = {//Entomological Society of Finland/ ; //Societas Biologica Fennica Vanamo/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to lead to rising winter temperatures in temperate zones, coinciding with a decrease in winter snow cover. Insects adapted to winter conditions in the temperate zone might be exposed to changing winter conditions and higher temperature fluctuations, which can affect diapause and mortality. We studied the effects of climate change on Chrysolina polita, a temperate zone species overwintering as an adult in the shallow surface of the soil. We tested the effects of increased and fluctuating temperature on the mortality and body composition of the beetles in a laboratory environment, as well as the effects of snow cover removal on the mortality and body mass in field conditions. We found that in the laboratory study, a 2 °C increase in mean temperature increased mortality and resulted in increased lipid consumption, whereas temperature fluctuation caused desiccation of the beetles but did not affect mortality compared to the control condition. In the field study, the snow removal caused the mean soil temperature to decrease by 3 °C and fluctuate (ranging from -26.4 to 2.5 °C compared to a range of -1.7 to 0.5 °C in the control), yet these differences did not affect beetle mortality or body mass. We conclude that C. polita exhibits greater resistance to cold temperatures than to higher temperatures during diapause. Therefore, the rising temperatures associated with climate change can pose challenges for overwintering.}, }
@article {pmid39687868, year = {2024}, author = {Frazier, AN and Beck, MR and Waldrip, H and Koziel, JA}, title = {Connecting the ruminant microbiome to climate change: insights from current ecological and evolutionary concepts.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1503315}, doi = {10.3389/fmicb.2024.1503315}, pmid = {39687868}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Ruminant livestock provide meat, milk, wool, and other products required for human subsistence. Within the digestive tract of ruminant animals, the rumen houses a complex and diverse microbial ecosystem. These microbes generate many of the nutrients that are needed by the host animal for maintenance and production. However, enteric methane (CH4) is also produced during the final stage of anaerobic digestion. Growing public concern for global climate change has driven the agriculture sector to enhance its investigation into CH4 mitigation. Many CH4 mitigation methods have been explored, with varying outcomes. With the advent of new sequencing technologies, the host-microbe interactions that mediate fermentation processes have been examined to enhance ruminant enteric CH4 mitigation strategies. In this review, we describe current knowledge of the factors driving ruminant microbial assembly, how this relates to functionality, and how CH4 mitigation approaches influence ecological and evolutionary gradients. Through the current literature, we elucidated that many ecological and evolutionary properties are working in tandem in the assembly of ruminant microbes and in the functionality of these microbes in methanogenesis. Additionally, we provide a conceptual framework for future research wherein ecological and evolutionary dynamics account for CH4 mitigation in ruminant microbial composition. Thus, preparation of future research should incorporate this framework to address the roles ecology and evolution have in anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39687319, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, M and Henderson, M and Liu, B and Zhou, W and Ma, R and Huang, W and Dou, Z}, title = {Winter climate change mediates the sensitivity of vegetation leaf-out to spring warming in high latitudes in China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1476576}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2024.1476576}, pmid = {39687319}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Global warming has significantly altered plant phenology by advancing the timing of leaf emergence, impacting vegetation productivity and adaptability. Winter and spring temperatures have commonly been used to explain spring phenology shifts, but we still lack a solid understanding of the effects of interactions between conditions in different seasons. This study utilizes normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and meteorological data to examine the effects of changes in winter and spring temperatures and precipitation on the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) at high latitudes in China from 1982 to 2015. We found that SOS in Northeast China, as a whole, showed a weak advancing trend (moving earlier in the year), but with obvious regional differences. Even within the same vegetation type, changes in SOS were faster in the cold north (1.9 days/decade) and the cold and dry northwest (1.6 days/decade) than the regional averages for deciduous needleleaf forests (DNF; 1.2 days/decade) and grasslands (0.6 days/decade). Increases in spring temperatures dominate forest SOS advancement, while grassland SOS is mainly influenced by winter and spring precipitation. Decreases in winter minimum temperature (Tmin) enhance the spring temperature sensitivity of SOS. The way that winter precipitation regulates the spring temperature sensitivity of SOS differs among vegetation types: increasing sensitivity in grasslands but suppressing it in DNF. The moderating effects of winter conditions account for the greatest part of the regional differences in the magnitude of change in SOS. Our findings highlight that, although rising spring temperatures significantly affect SOS, winter Tmin and precipitation are crucial for understanding spatial SOS differences, particularly in cold, arid high-latitude regions. Winter conditions play an essential role in regulating the response of vegetation SOS to spring climate at high latitudes. These results suggest that considering the moderating effect of winter climate can facilitate more accurate predictions of temperature-driven phenological changes under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39683145, year = {2024}, author = {Yue, C and Li, H and Shi, X}, title = {Geographical Distribution Dynamics of Acorus calamus in China Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {39683145}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2022SY06//Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology Project/ ; 2022C02038//"Pioneer" and "Leading Goose" R&amp;D Program of Zhejiang/ ; 2023F1068-4//Zhejiang Provincial Scientific Research Institute Special Project/ ; }, abstract = {Acorus calamus, a perennial emergent herb, is highly valued for its ornamental appeal, water purification ability, and medicinal properties. However, there is a significant contradiction between the rapidly increasing demand for A. calamus and the diminishing wild resources. Understanding its geographical distribution and the influence of global climate change on its geographical distribution is imperative for establishing a theoretical framework for the conservation of natural resources and the expansion of its cultivation. In this study, 266 distribution records of A. calamus and 18 selected key environmental factors were utilized to construct an optimal MaxEnt model via the ENMeval package. We simulated the potential geographical distributions under current conditions and under three different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) in the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s. Additionally, we employed the jackknife method and response curves to identify the environmental factors with the greatest influence on the distribution of A. calamus, and their response intervals. The results indicate that the regularization multiplier (RM) of 3.5 and the feature combinations (FC) of linear (L), quadratic (Q), hinge (H), and product (P) are the optimal model parameter combinations. With these parameters, the model predictions are highly accurate, and the consistency of the results is significant. The dominant environmental factors and their thresholds affecting the distribution of A. calamus are the precipitation of the wettest month (≥109.87 mm), human footprint (≥5.39), annual precipitation (≥388.56 mm), and mean diurnal range (≤12.83 °C). The primary land use types include rivers and channels, reservoirs and ponds, lakes, urban areas, marshes, other constructed lands, rice fields, forested areas, and shrublands. Under current climate conditions, the suitable geographical distribution of A. calamus in China is clearly located east of the 400 mm precipitation line, with high- and low-suitability areas covering 121.12 × 10[4] km[2], and 164.20 × 10[4] km[2], respectively. Under future climate conditions, both high- and low- suitability areas are projected to increase significantly, whereas unsuitable areas are expected to decrease, with the centroid of each suitability zone shifting northward. This study provides a theoretical foundation for sustainable utilization, future production planning, and the development of conservation strategies for wild germplasm resources of A. calamus.}, }
@article {pmid39683140, year = {2024}, author = {Abubakar, I and Pantović, JP and Šinžar-Sekulić, JB and Sabovljević, MS}, title = {Modeling the Distribution of the Rare and Red-Listed Halophytic Moss Species Entosthodon hungaricus Under Various Climate Change Scenarios in Serbia.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {39683140}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Entosthodon hungaricus is a rare moss species of the salty grasslands in Serbia. It is threatened with extinction due to habitat destruction and loss, although it reproduces sexually. In this study, we tested different models predicting its distribution under several climate scenarios over the next 8 decades. All models tested indicated a reduction in range to varying extents. Due to the specific substrate type as well as the predicted loss owing to the climate change, shifting is not an option for the survival of this species; and, therefore, it deserves special attention for its conservation and management.}, }
@article {pmid39683139, year = {2024}, author = {Matsumura, M and Watanabe, Y and Tada, H and Murai, K}, title = {Cytoplasm of the Wild Species Aegilops mutica Reduces VRN1 Gene Expression in Early Growth of Cultivated Wheat: Prospects for Using Alloplasmic Lines to Breed Varieties Adapted to Global Warming.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {39683139}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {23K05171//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/ ; }, abstract = {In a warm winter due to climate warming, it is necessary to suppress early flowering of autumn-sown wheat plants. Here, we propose the use of cytoplasmic genome effects for this purpose. Alloplasmic lines, or cytoplasmic substitution lines, of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) have cytoplasm from a related wild Aegilops species through recurrent backcrossing and exhibit altered characteristics compared with the euplasmic lines from which they are derived. Thus, alloplasmic lines with Aegilops mutica cytoplasm show delayed flowering compared with lines carrying normal cytoplasm. In the wheat flowering pathway, VERNALIZATION 1 (VRN1) encodes an APETALA1/FRUITFULL-like MADS box transcription factor that plays a central role in the activation of florigen genes, which induce floral meristems in the shoot apex. Here, we compared expression of VRN1 alleles in alloplasmic and euplasmic lines after vernalization. We found that alloplasmic wheat showed a lower level of VRN1 expression after vernalization compared with euplasmic wheat. Thus, nuclear-cytoplasm interactions affect the expression levels of the nuclear VRN1 gene; these interactions might occur through the pathway termed retrograde signaling. In warm winters, autumn-sown wheat cultivars with spring habit can pass through the reproductive growth phase in very early spring, resulting in a decreased tiller/ear number and reduced yield performance. Here, we present data showing that an alloplasmic line of 'Fukusayaka' can avoid the decrease in tiller/ear numbers during warm winters, suggesting that this alloplasmic line may be useful for development of varieties adapted to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid39683133, year = {2024}, author = {Li, S and Gao, J and Guo, P and Zhang, G and Ren, Y and Lu, Q and Bai, Q and Lu, J}, title = {Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity of Ecological Quality in a Typical Dryland of Northern China Driven by Climate Change and Human Activities.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {39683133}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2022YFF130320203//The Sub-project of the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 2022EEDSKJZDZX020-3//The Science and Technology Major Special Project of Erdos/ ; }, abstract = {With the intensification of climate change and anthropogenic impacts, the ecological environment in drylands faces serious challenges, underscoring the necessity for regionally adapted ecological quality evaluation. This study evaluates the suitability of the original Remote Sensing Ecological Index (oRSEI), modified RSEI (mRSEI), and adapted RSEI (aRSEI) in a typical dryland region of northern China. Spatio-temporal changes in ecological quality from 2000 to 2022 were analyzed using Theil-Sen median trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, and the Hurst exponent. Multiple regression residual analysis quantified the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to ecological quality changes. Results showed that (1) the aRSEI was the most suitable index for the study area; (2) observed changes exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with improvements generally in the inner areas of the Yellow River and declines in the outer areas; and (3) changes in ecological quality were primarily driven by climate change and human activities, with human activities dominating from 2000 to 2011 and the influence of climate change increasing from 2012 to 2022. This study compares the efficacy of RSEIs in evaluating dryland ecological quality, identifies spatio-temporal change patterns, and elucidates driving mechanisms, offering scientific evidence and policy recommendations for targeted conservation and restoration measures to address future changes in dryland regions.}, }
@article {pmid39681731, year = {2024}, author = {Jauch, AS and Ach, T}, title = {[Climate change as a factor in the development of retinal diseases: a critical review].}, journal = {Die Ophthalmologie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39681731}, issn = {2731-7218}, abstract = {The climate change has multiple effects on health. The eyes are not exempt from these effects and components of climate change, such as the temperature, UV radiation or air pollution that can have a relevant impact on retinal pathologies can be worked out. The alterations to the retina include UV light-induced retinal damage, age-related macular degeneration (AMD), choroidal melanoma, diabetic retinopathy, retinal detachment and vascular occlusion. Overall, there is an urgent need for prospective multicenter studies to be able to further analyze the specific impact of components of climate change on the retina.}, }
@article {pmid39680617, year = {2024}, author = {Jayakumar, JM and Martinez-Urtaza, J and Brumfield, KD and Jutla, AS and Colwell, RR and Cordero, OX and Almagro-Moreno, S}, title = {Climate change and Vibrio vulnificus dynamics: A blueprint for infectious diseases.}, journal = {PLoS pathogens}, volume = {20}, number = {12}, pages = {e1012767}, pmid = {39680617}, issn = {1553-7374}, mesh = {*Vibrio vulnificus/pathogenicity ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Vibrio Infections/transmission/microbiology/epidemiology ; Animals ; Disease Outbreaks ; Communicable Diseases/transmission/epidemiology/microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is having increasingly profound effects on human health, notably those associated with the occurrence, distribution, and transmission of infectious diseases. The number of disparate ecological parameters and pathogens affected by climate change are vast and expansive. Disentangling the complex relationship between these variables is critical for the development of effective countermeasures against its effects. The pathogen Vibrio vulnificus, a naturally occurring aquatic bacterium that causes fulminant septicemia, represents a quintessential climate-sensitive organism. In this review, we use V. vulnificus as a model organism to elucidate the intricate network of interactions between climatic factors and pathogens, with the objective of identifying common patterns by which climate change is affecting their disease burden. Recent findings indicate that in regions native to V. vulnificus or related pathogens, climate-driven natural disasters are the chief contributors to their disease outbreaks. Concurrently, climate change is increasing the environmental suitability of areas non-endemic to their diseases, promoting a surge in their natural populations and transmission dynamics, thus elevating the risk of new outbreaks. We highlight potential risk factors and climatic drivers aggravating the threat of V. vulnificus transmission under both scenarios and propose potential measures for mitigating its impact. By defining the mechanisms by which climate change influences V. vulnificus disease burden, we aim to shed light on the transmission dynamics of related disease-causing agents, thereby laying the groundwork for early warning systems and broadly applicable control measures.}, }
@article {pmid39680536, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, X and Zhu, J and Pan, P}, title = {Spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland aboveground biomass in northern China and the alpine region: Impacts of climate change and human activities.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {e0315329}, pmid = {39680536}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Grassland ; *Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Human Activities ; Seasons ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Grassland plays a crucial role in the global cycles of matter, energy, water and, climate regulation. Biomass serves as one of the fundamental indicators for evaluating the ecological status of grassland. This study utilized the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model to estimate Net Primary Productivity (NPP) from meteorological data and the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) remote sensing data for northern China's temperate and alpine grasslands from 1981 to 2015. NPP was subsequently converted into aboveground biomass (AGB). The dynamic changes in grassland AGB were analyzed, and the influence of climate change was examined. The results indicate strong agreement between AGB estimations from the CASA model and Gill method based on field-measured AGB, confirming the model's reliability for these regions. The dynamic changes in AGB exhibited a significant increasing trend of 1.31 g/m2. Grazing intensity (GI), soil moisture, and mean annual precipitation are identified as key factors influencing changes in grassland AGB. Our findings indicate that precipitation and soil moisture are the primary drivers of AGB accumulation during the growing season (spring, summer, and autumn), while temperature plays a critical role in supporting biomass accumulation during winter. Higher temperatures in winter contributes to increased AGB in the following spring, particularly in desert steppe and alpine meadow ecosystems. These insights highlight the complex interaction between climate factors and human activities in shaping grassland productivity across different seasons.}, }
@article {pmid39680132, year = {2024}, author = {Garzone, D and Templin, S and Finger, RP}, title = {[From ozone depletion to the lens: effects of climate change on cataract progression].}, journal = {Die Ophthalmologie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39680132}, issn = {2731-7218}, abstract = {The incidence of cataract is expected to increase, primarily due to an aging population. However, human-induced environmental changes may also contribute. In this narrative review, we explore the connection between climate change, the depletion of the ozone layer, and modifiable risk factors for cataract development such as UV light exposure and pollution-related factors. Finally, we discuss preventative measures at both the individual and the societal level, including strategies to improve cataract care and reduce the carbon footprint of cataract surgery.}, }
@article {pmid39679384, year = {2024}, author = {Khosravi, M and Mojtabaeian, SM and Sarvestani, MA}, title = {A Systematic Review on the Outcomes of Climate Change in the Middle-Eastern Countries: The Catastrophes of Yemen and Syria.}, journal = {Environmental health insights}, volume = {18}, number = {}, pages = {11786302241302270}, pmid = {39679384}, issn = {1178-6302}, abstract = {The Middle East is facing serious climate change challenges, rendering it as one of the most affected regions worldwide. This paper aimed to investigate the outcomes of climate change in the Middle East. In 2024, a qualitative study was conducted employing a methodology that integrated systematic review for data collection and thematic analysis for data analysis. Such integration of the approaches provided valuable insights into the findings within the literature in a comprehensive and categorized format. PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched for relevant studies published between 2000 and 2024. The quality of these studies was assessed using the AACODS (Accuracy, Coverage, Objectivity, Date, Significance) checklist. The data extracted from the included studies underwent a thematic analysis utilizing Braun and Clarke's methodology. After completing the screening process, a total of 93 papers were deemed suitable for inclusion in the study. The quality assessment of these selected studies demonstrated a notably high standard, particularly in terms of authority, accuracy, coverage, objectivity, and significance. Moreover, minimal levels of bias were observed within the included studies. Subsequent thematic analysis of the findings from the systematic review identified 6 overarching themes: "Human Health Outcomes," "Animal Health Outcomes," "Plant Health Outcomes," "Ecological Outcomes," "Economic Outcomes," and "Political Outcomes." The study revealed ecological outcomes as the most prevalent consequences of climate change in the Middle East, including alterations in habitat distribution, temperature increase, water scarcity, and more. The outcomes seemed to be interconnected, exacerbating each other. Yemen and Syria had faced severe consequences, leading to political unrest and humanitarian crises in which Yemen ranking among the most water-stressed nations globally, while Syria contending with millions of displaced individuals living in dire conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39678153, year = {2024}, author = {Liang, Y and Gillett, NP and Monahan, AH}, title = {Accounting for Pacific climate variability increases projected global warming.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {608-614}, pmid = {39678153}, issn = {1758-678X}, abstract = {Observational constraint methods based on the relationship between the past global warming trend and projected warming across climate models were used to reduce uncertainties in projected warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Internal climate variability in the eastern tropical Pacific associated with the so-called pattern effect weakens this relationship and has reduced the observed warming trend over recent decades. Here we show that regressing out this variability before applying the observed global mean warming trend as a constraint results in higher and narrower twenty-first century warming ranges than other methods. Whereas the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessed that warming is unlikely to exceed 2 °C under a low-emissions scenario, our results indicate that warming is likely to exceed 2 °C under the same scenario, and hence, limiting global warming to well below 2 °C will be harder than previously anticipated. However, the reduced uncertainties in these projections could benefit adaptation planning.}, }
@article {pmid39677918, year = {2024}, author = {Mockler, BK and Perkins, A and Obremskey, A and Boos, M and Cogen, JD and Tandon, PS and Grow, HM}, title = {Incorporating Climate Change Action Into Pediatric Residency Training Results in Institutional Change.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {161-162}, pmid = {39677918}, issn = {1949-8357}, }
@article {pmid39677917, year = {2024}, author = {Philipsborn, R and McShane, M and Marwah, H and Cogen, J and Barnes, M and Osta, A and Grow, HM}, title = {Proposing Standards for Pediatricians on Climate Change and Health: Leveraging the Entrustable Professional Activity Framework.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {159-160}, pmid = {39677917}, issn = {1949-8357}, }
@article {pmid39677915, year = {2024}, author = {McShane, M and Kumar, S and Zuniga, L}, title = {Implementing and Assessing Climate Change Education in a Pediatrics Residency Curriculum.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {92-98}, pmid = {39677915}, issn = {1949-8357}, mesh = {*Internship and Residency ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Curriculum ; *Pediatrics/education ; *Education, Medical, Graduate ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; }, abstract = {Background For physicians to effectively combat the growing health crisis that is climate change, they should begin learning during medical training about its health implications. However, there is little data on residents' knowledge of the climate crisis, and even less data regarding the effectiveness and acceptability of climate change education in graduate medical training programs. Objective To incorporate a new educational session on the health implications of climate change into a residency curriculum and evaluate the acceptability of the session and its effects on residents' knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of the topic. Methods In July 2021, a 90-minute, interactive, small-group format educational session on the health implications of climate change was incorporated into the first-year curriculum of a pediatric residency program. From July 2021 through June 2023, resident participants completed pre- and post-session surveys that assessed their knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions regarding health implications of climate change. Likert scale data were analyzed using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results Of the 109 residents scheduled to participate, 50 (46%) completed both the pre- and post-session surveys. Session participation increased residents' self-reported knowledge of how climate change impacts health and how physicians can act as climate advocates. Ninety-eight percent of all post-session respondents (58 of 59) agreed that they would recommend the session to other residents. With 3 facilitators, the monthly session required ≤4 hours of preparation and ≤12 hours of direct teaching time per facilitator each academic year. Conclusions A single educational session improved residents' self-reported knowledge of the health implications of climate change and was well-received by participants.}, }
@article {pmid39677914, year = {2024}, author = {Robohm, JS and Shih, G and Stenger, R}, title = {Climate Change Curriculum in a Network of US Family Medicine Residency Programs.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {78-85}, pmid = {39677914}, issn = {1949-8357}, mesh = {*Internship and Residency ; *Family Practice/education ; Humans ; *Curriculum ; *Climate Change ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Education, Medical, Graduate ; United States ; }, abstract = {Background Physicians require climate-related training, but not enough is known about actual or desired training at the graduate medical education level. Objective To quantify the climate curriculum provided within a network of family medicine residency programs in the Northwestern United States, to assess barriers to adoption of climate curricula, and to identify preferred climate-related content, delivery methods, and program actions. Methods In fall 2021, residents and faculty in a family medicine residency network responded to a 25-item, anonymous, online survey about climate-related training within their programs. Likert scales were used to assess the extent of current and desired climate curricula in respondent programs, and a paired samples t test was used to compare them. Drop-down menus and frequencies were used to identify top barriers to integration of a climate curriculum, and preferred curricular content, delivery methods, and program actions. Results Responses were received from 19.3% (246 of 1275) of potential respondents. Nearly ninety percent (215 of 240) reported little or no climate content in their programs. Respondents desired significantly more climate-related training (t[237]=18.17; P<.001; Cohen's d=1.18) but identified several barriers, including insufficient time/competing curricular priorities (80.7%, 192 of 238), concern about the political/controversial nature of the topic (27.3%, 65 of 238), and perceived irrelevance (10.9%, 26 of 238). More respondents selected integration of climate content throughout relevant didactics (62.2%, 145 of 233) than other delivery methods. Over 42% of respondents selected each of the climate-related topics and program actions suggested. Conclusions Despite a number of barriers, most family medicine faculty and residents desire significantly more climate-related content in their training curricula.}, }
@article {pmid39677911, year = {2024}, author = {Khan, A and Berenji, M and Cloeren, M and Solomon, G and Goldman, R}, title = {Climate Change and Health: Occupational and Environmental Medicine at the Frontlines.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {49-52}, pmid = {39677911}, issn = {1949-8357}, }
@article {pmid39677909, year = {2024}, author = {Cois, A and Kirkpatrick, S and Herrin, R}, title = {Climate Change Curricula in US Graduate Medical Education: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {69-77}, pmid = {39677909}, issn = {1949-8357}, mesh = {Humans ; *Curriculum ; United States ; *Climate Change ; *Education, Medical, Graduate ; Internship and Residency ; }, abstract = {Background Climate change threatens humanity's health and well-being. While climate change topics have been increasingly incorporated into undergraduate medical education, it is unclear to what extent they have been incorporated into graduate medical education (GME) curricula in the United States. Objective To examine how climate change has been incorporated into GME curricula in the United States. Methods We conducted a scoping review of published literature from January 2013 through November 2023. PubMed and Scopus were searched, with articles assessed by 3 reviewers in a blinded fashion. Resources were included if they described how climate change is incorporated into GME curricula in the United States, and if they discussed topics such as disaster medicine, mass casualty events, environmental medicine, public health, health policy, wilderness medicine, quality improvement, and sustainability. Articles were analyzed using descriptive numerical analysis and qualitative assessment to identify article characteristics and themes. Results The inclusion criteria generated 17 articles that examined climate change incorporation into GME curricula and curriculum interventions covering topics used for inclusion. The most common type of article (5 of 17, 29%) employed surveys of program directors on the inclusion of climate-related topics. Conclusions Published accounts of climate-related topics in US GME program curricula are few. More content is found in topics related to emergency medicine. Curricula frameworks have been proposed for pediatric and internal medicine residency programs, but we know little about their efficacy. Future scholarship should fill these gaps to educate learners to improve health care sustainability and resiliency.}, }
@article {pmid39677908, year = {2024}, author = {Yeo, A and Lui, JK}, title = {The Need to Emphasize Inhaler Education in Residency and Fellowship Training in the Era of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {19-21}, pmid = {39677908}, issn = {1949-8357}, }
@article {pmid39677907, year = {2024}, author = {Moya-Smith, T and Gordon, J and Radejko, T and Weinstock, R}, title = {Planetary Health and Climate Change Committee: A Resident-Led Initiative for Education, Advocacy, and Action.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {45-48}, pmid = {39677907}, issn = {1949-8357}, }
@article {pmid39677904, year = {2024}, author = {Nwanaji-Enwerem, JC and Ayankola, OJ and Avakame, EF}, title = {Assessing Physician Climate Change Competency via Medical Licensing and Board Examinations: Lessons From Integrating Ultrasound Topics in Emergency Medicine.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {22-24}, pmid = {39677904}, issn = {1949-8357}, }
@article {pmid39677902, year = {2024}, author = {Knox, K and Getzin, A and Oliver, KS and Gillet, V and Hanus, K and Simpson, D}, title = {A "Climate +1" Approach to Teach Resident Physicians and Faculty the Effects of Climate Change on Patient Health.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {152-153}, doi = {10.4300/JGME-D-24-00047.1}, pmid = {39677902}, issn = {1949-8357}, }
@article {pmid39677896, year = {2024}, author = {Padgett, CL and Ventre, SJ and Orrange, SM}, title = {Development and Implementation of a Climate Change and Health Curriculum Into Pediatric Residency Education.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {125-128}, pmid = {39677896}, issn = {1949-8357}, mesh = {*Internship and Residency ; Humans ; *Curriculum ; *Pediatrics/education ; *Climate Change ; Education, Medical, Graduate ; }, abstract = {Background There is an increasing body of evidence demonstrating the impacts of climate change on health. Physicians recognize the significance but feel unprepared to address it. Despite a call to action from prominent medical organizations, climate change and health (CCH) education has remained sparse. Objective To describe the development and feasibility of a formal climate change curriculum tailored to pediatric residency programs and to assess residents' pre-intervention knowledge and self-reported comfort with this topic. Methods We created a longitudinal, single-institution CCH curriculum for pediatric and combined internal medicine-pediatrics residents. Implementation and evaluation began in May 2023 and is ongoing. Several educational strategies are utilized, and assessment tools include knowledge- and attitudes-based assessments, case-based exercises, reflective writing, grading rubrics, and patient encounter assessments. Feasibility was tracked. Results Sixty-one residents were eligible for participation at the beginning of the study. Pre-intervention knowledge-based assessments were completed by 14 of the 61 residents (23.0%), and attitude-based questions were completed by 12 residents (19.7%). Baseline knowledge assessment showed varied proficiency in CCH topics, and attitudes data showed that while most respondents felt CCH education was important (11 of 12, 91.7%), no respondents felt "very comfortable" discussing these topics with patients. In the first year of the curriculum, after residents applied knowledge in a small-group, case-based exercise, most groups were graded as "not yet competent" in all categories utilizing a rubric. Conclusions This study demonstrates that a CCH curriculum can be feasibly designed and implemented.}, }
@article {pmid39677895, year = {2024}, author = {Dresser, C and Wiskel, T and Giudice, C and Humphrey, K and Storr, L and Balsari, S}, title = {A Graduate Medical Education Fellowship in Climate Change and Human Health: Experience and Outcomes From the First 5 Years.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {129-134}, pmid = {39677895}, issn = {1949-8357}, mesh = {Humans ; *Fellowships and Scholarships ; *Climate Change ; *Education, Medical, Graduate ; United States ; Emergency Medicine/education ; Internship and Residency ; }, abstract = {Background Climate change is affecting health and health care, but most physicians lack formal training on climate change. There is a need for graduate medical education (GME) programs that prepare physician leaders to address its health impacts. Objective To describe the development and iterative piloting of a GME fellowship in climate change and health and to assess fellows' academic output and public engagement before and after fellowship matriculation. Methods A GME training program was developed and implemented at an emergency medicine department in a US teaching hospital in collaboration with affiliated academic centers. Participants consisted of emergency physicians from the United States and abroad. Program duration and format were adjusted to meet individual career goals. Outcomes assessed include program completion, postgraduation professional roles, and academic outputs and public engagement before and after fellowship matriculation (2019-2023), compared via paired t tests. Results Five fellows have matriculated; 2 have graduated, while 3 remain in training. Costs and in-kind support include salaries, faculty time, research support, travel to conferences, and tuition for a public health degree. Fellows averaged 0.26 outputs per month before matriculation (95% CI 0.01-0.51) and 2.13 outputs per month following matriculation (95% CI 0.77-3.50); this difference was significant via 2-tailed t test (alpha=.05, P=.01). Subanalyses of academic output and public engagement reveal similar increases. Following matriculation, 186 of 191 (97.4%) of outputs were related to climate change. Conclusions For the 5 fellows that have enrolled in this GME climate change fellowship, academic and public engagement output rates increased following fellowship matriculation.}, }
@article {pmid39677889, year = {2024}, author = {Moon, C and Braganza, S and Bathory, E}, title = {Incorporating Climate Change Education Into Residency: A Focus on Community Risks and Resources.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {6 Suppl}, pages = {86-91}, pmid = {39677889}, issn = {1949-8357}, mesh = {Humans ; *Internship and Residency ; *Climate Change ; *Education, Medical, Graduate ; *Curriculum ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Family Practice/education ; Male ; Female ; Pediatrics/education ; Academic Medical Centers ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Graduate medical education (GME) focused on climate change (CC) health effects is essential. However, few CC education evaluations exist to guide residency programs looking to implement CC content.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of an education session on residents' self-reported knowledge of CC health effects and confidence utilizing local CC anticipatory guidance and community resources with patients.<br><br>METHODS: A CC session was integrated into the pediatric, family medicine, and social medicine curricula at an urban academic medical center in 2023. A convenience sample of residents participated in 1 of 4 nonrandomized case-based or lecture-based sessions. Pre- and post-session 5-question Likert-scale surveys were used for assessment and analyzed using paired t tests.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixty-eight of 108 eligible residents completed the surveys (28 case-based, 40 lecture-based, 63% response rate). Residents' understanding and confidence to engage with patients on CC health effects after the educational session improved (Q1 mean difference 1.3, t 67=9.85, 95% CI 1.04-1.57, P<.001; Q2 1.5, t 67=9.98, 95% CI 1.20-1.82, P<.001; Q3 1.8, t 67=12.84, 95% QI 1.54-2.11, P<.001; Q4 2.1, t 67=16.25, 95% CI 1.84-2.36, P<.001; Q5 2.1, t 67=16.28, 95% CI 1.86-2.38, P<.001).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Resident self-reported understanding of the health effects of CC and confidence utilizing local CC anticipatory guidance and resources with patients increased after a CC education session.}, }
@article {pmid39677455, year = {2024}, author = {Zaninotto, P and Wu, YT and Prina, M}, title = {ClimateMind50+ a comprehensive short questionnaire to measures climate change knowledge, worries, preparedness, behaviours, and involvement of adults aged 50 and over.}, journal = {medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1101/2024.12.02.24318302}, pmid = {39677455}, abstract = {The ClimateMind50+ questionnaire is a tailored instrument to assess the knowledge, concerns, preparedness, behaviours, and involvement of individuals aged 50 and above. Older adults are particularly vulnerable to climate-related hazards such as extreme heat, flooding, and severe storms, yet their perspectives and contributions to climate resilience remain underrepresented in research. The systematic development of the ClimateMind50+ involved rigorous cognitive testing with diverse participants, ensuring clarity, accessibility, and relevance. The tool is designed for versatility in administration-face-to-face, via telephone, or self-completion-facilitating its integration across various research contexts. Cognitive testing highlighted the need for clear wording, simplified response scales, and age-appropriate framing of questions. For instance, questions on climate preparedness and sustainable practices were refined to capture lifetime actions ("ever") rather than limited timeframes, enhancing their relevance for older respondents. Additionally, the questionnaire effectively explores older adults' engagement in climate actions, from individual behavioural changes to advocacy and activism, challenging stereotypes of passivity in this demographic. By providing nuanced insights into the experiences of older adults and their potential contributions to climate mitigation and adaptation, the ClimateMind50+ offers a robust foundation for climate change research among older people. Its deployment can support policymaking and community initiatives aimed at reducing climate risks while promoting sustainable and healthy aging practices. This innovative tool underscores the importance of amplifying the voices of older adults in climate discourse and harnessing their capacities for fostering resilience.}, }
@article {pmid39676232, year = {2024}, author = {Flickinger, HD and Dukes, JS}, title = {A Review of Theory: Comparing Invasion Ecology and Climate Change-Induced Range Shifting.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {12}, pages = {e17612}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17612}, pmid = {39676232}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; Ecosystem ; Animals ; Animal Distribution ; Ecology ; }, abstract = {Human actions have led to large-scale shifts in the distributions of species, which have accelerated over recent decades. Two contributing factors include the introduction of non-native species to new regions, and more recently, the shift of species into new ranges to track a human-altered climate. While the context of these species redistributions is different, we argue here that scientists studying the effects of either invasion or range shifting are interested in the same underlying mechanistic questions: (1) What traits make a species likely to survive in a new location? and (2) Which recipient ecosystems are likely to support a newly arrived species? A survey of the theoretical literature surrounding these topics demonstrates the usefulness of this comparison and highlights key differences between range shifting and invasion in factors including genetic diversity, climatic tolerance, local adaptation, and coevolutionary history. This review does not support the blanket application of an invasion framework to climate change-induced range shifts. However, we suggest the use of modified invasion theories, experimental designs, and risk assessments could aid in predicting outcomes and prioritizing management resources for climate-threatened species.}, }
@article {pmid39675732, year = {2024}, author = {Lopes, MC}, title = {Climate change and its impact on children and adolescents sleep.}, journal = {Jornal de pediatria}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jped.2024.10.009}, pmid = {39675732}, issn = {1678-4782}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This review discusses the impact of climate change on sleep, anxiety, and eating in the pediatric population.<br><br>DATA SOURCE: This is a nonsystematic literature review based on a search using PubMed and MeSH terms in titles and abstracts with these keywords: climate change, sleep, greenhouse effect, children, and adolescents.<br><br>DATA SYNTHESIS: Climate change events are associated with human intervention in the ecosystem, having a strong impact on cognitive functions, physical and mental health, as well as subjective well-being, particularly in youth. Climate change is caused by human activity with changes in the composition of the global atmosphere caused by emissions of gases, such as carbon dioxide, which increase the greenhouse effect. This review discusses the impact of climate change on sleep, anxiety, and feeding in the pediatric population.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Early detection of vulnerability conditions, along with adaptation strategies is necessary to address climate stressors with a focus on healthy sleep and eco-anxiety. Pediatrics has an important role to play in protecting healthy sleep in children.}, }
@article {pmid39675333, year = {2024}, author = {Marshall, E and Keem, JL and Penman, TD and Di Stefano, J}, title = {Simulating fuel management for protecting regional biodiversity under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123731}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123731}, pmid = {39675333}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change is resulting in larger, more frequent, and more severe wildfires which have increasingly negative impacts on people and the environment. Under these circumstances, it is critical to determine whether fire management actions can mitigate biodiversity impacts under future fire regimes. However, it is currently unclear how changing climate and management interact to influence the spatial distribution of risks to biodiversity. We used fire simulations to quantify the influence of 13 fuel management strategies on animal biodiversity in the Otways, southeastern Australia, under four alternative climate scenarios. Our management strategies include combinations of prescribed burning, mulching, and strategic fuel breaks modelled in various spatial configurations and frequencies. We assessed the capacity of treatments to reduce risk of fire to animal biodiversity by quantifying changes to extent burnt, wildfire frequency and wildfire severity. All management strategies reduced the average annual area burnt across the landscape, however, there was considerable variability over time and under different climate models. Similarly, spatial shifts in fire frequency and severity in some cases resulted in the shifting of fires away from some areas of high value to animals. There is no one size fits all management strategy for reducing impacts to biodiversity under variable future climates. However, all the strategies tested here reduced median impacts relative to a do-nothing approach for at least some aspects of the fire regime or for animal biodiversity. We highlight the importance of evaluating fire management effectiveness against a range of metrics to ensure multiple objectives are met under the increasingly unknown climate conditions we can expect going forward.}, }
@article {pmid39675324, year = {2024}, author = {Zelli, E and Ellis, J and Pilditch, C and Rowden, AA and Anderson, OF and Geange, SW and Bowden, DA and Stephenson, F}, title = {Identifying climate refugia for vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator taxa under future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {122635}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122635}, pmid = {39675324}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs) are recognised as having high ecological significance and susceptibility to disturbances, including climate change. One approach to providing information on the location and biological composition of these ecosystems, especially in difficult-to-reach environments such as the deep sea, is to generate spatial predictions for VME indicator taxa. In this study, the Random Forest algorithm was used to model the spatial distribution of density for 14 deep-water VME indicator taxa under current environmental conditions and future climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) within the New Zealand Territorial Sea and Exclusive Economic Zone (100-1500 m water depth) to evaluate potential changes in the location and distribution of density of these taxa over time. Overall, our species distribution models performed well for all taxa (mean AUC = 0.82; TSS = 0.56; r = 0.40) and predicted a considerable average reduction in density (54%) and habitat extent (61%), by the end of the 21st century under both climate change scenarios. Nevertheless, models identified regions that might serve as internal refugia (approximately 158,000 km[2]), where some taxa are predicted to maintain the high densities predicted for current-day environmental conditions under future climatic conditions, and external refugia (approximately 121,000 km[2]) where taxa were predicted to expand into new locations by the end of the 21st century. Our results represent a significant step forward as they provide predictions of the distribution of taxa densities, rather than just occurrence, under both present and future climatic conditions. Furthermore, these findings carry implications for ecosystem management and spatial planning, suggesting current marine spatial protection measures may not offer adequate protection to VME indicator taxa in the face of climate change. Additionally, activities like bottom trawling, present or future, may jeopardize climate refugia viability. Thus, a comprehensive assessment of cumulative effects on VME indicator taxa is recommended to establish effective protection measures for potential climate refugia, ensuring the continuity of essential ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid39674917, year = {2024}, author = {Behrens, G and Skellern, M and McGushin, A and Kelly, P and Kearney, THG}, title = {Making climate change a national health priority: Australia's first National Health and Climate Strategy.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.52552}, pmid = {39674917}, issn = {1326-5377}, }
@article {pmid39674206, year = {2024}, author = {Zhu, Z and Zhang, T and Benmarhnia, T and Chen, X and Wang, H and Wulayin, M and Knibbs, LD and Yang, S and Xu, L and Huang, C and Wang, Q}, title = {Estimating the burden of temperature-related low birthweight attributable to anthropogenic climate change in low-income and middle-income countries: a retrospective, multicentre, epidemiological study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e997-e1009}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00242-0}, pmid = {39674206}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Infant, Low Birth Weight ; Female ; Pregnancy ; *Developing Countries/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Retrospective Studies ; Infant, Newborn ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Cold Temperature/adverse effects ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Pregnant individuals are particularly susceptible to non-optimal temperatures due to their physiological status. Moreover, pregnancy is a crucial period for programming fetal health. Quantifying the impact of non-optimal temperature exposure and the contribution of anthropogenic climate change is crucial for mitigating and adapting to climate-related health risks. However, this has not been thoroughly studied in pregnant individuals in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).<br><br>METHODS: Using data from 511&#x2008;449 births across 31 LMICs from 1990 to 2018, we linked climate simulations (with and without anthropogenic forcing) to spatiotemporally resolved temperature data and birthweight records. We assessed the association between heat and cold exposure (ie, >90th and <10th percentile of temperature by region) during pregnancy and birthweight across different regions. We then used temperature simulations from both historically forced and natural-only forced climate models to estimate changes in exposure due to anthropogenic climate change and to quantify the burden of temperature-related low birthweight (ie, a birthweight <2500 g) attributable to anthropogenic climate change.<br><br>FINDINGS: Heat exposure during pregnancy, compared with the optimal temperature range, was associated with an increased risk of low birthweight in several regions: southern Asia (odds ratio 1&#xb7;41, 95% CI 1&#xb7;34-1&#xb7;48), western Africa (1&#xb7;12, 1&#xb7;02-1&#xb7;24), and eastern Africa (1&#xb7;40, 1&#xb7;27-1&#xb7;55). Cold exposure increased the risk of low birthweight in central Africa (1&#xb7;31, 1&#xb7;10-1&#xb7;56), southern Africa (1&#xb7;18, 1&#xb7;02-1&#xb7;36), and eastern Africa (1&#xb7;14, 1&#xb7;02-1&#xb7;26). Anthropogenic climate change contributed to approximately 59&#xb7;2% (95% CI 16&#xb7;6-94&#xb7;3), 89&#xb7;0% (51&#xb7;0-100&#xb7;0), and 77&#xb7;3% (27&#xb7;0-100&#xb7;0) of heat-related low birthweight cases in southern Asia, western Africa, and eastern Africa, respectively. Conversely, in regions where cold exposure was predominant, anthropogenic climate change reduced the burden of low birthweight.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Our study provides quantitative estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the low birthweight burden in LMICs. These findings can inform strategies for climate mitigation and adaptation in LMICs and help reduce global health inequalities.<br><br>FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China.}, }
@article {pmid39674199, year = {2024}, author = {van Bavel, B and Berrang-Ford, L and Moon, K and Gudda, F and Thornton, AJ and Robinson, RFS and King, R}, title = {Intersections between climate change and antimicrobial resistance: a systematic scoping review.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e1118-e1128}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00273-0}, pmid = {39674199}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Drug Resistance, Microbial ; Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology ; Animals ; Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; }, abstract = {Climate change and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) present crucial challenges for the health and wellbeing of people, animals, plants, and ecosystems worldwide, yet the two are largely treated as separate and unrelated challenges. The aim of this systematic scoping Review is to understand the nature of the growing evidence base linking AMR and climate change and to identify knowledge gaps and areas for further research. We conducted a systematic search of the peer-reviewed literature in Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed on 27 June, 2022. Our search strategy identified and screened 1687 unique results. Data were extracted and analysed from 574 records meeting our inclusion criteria. 222 (39%) of these reviewed articles discussed harmful synergies in which both climate change and AMR exist independently and can interact synergistically, resulting in negative outcomes. Just over a quarter (n=163; 28%) of the literature contained general or broad references to AMR and climate change, whereas a fifth (n=111; 19%) of articles referred to climate change influencing the emergence and evolution of AMR. 12% of articles (n=70) presented positive synergies between approaches aimed at addressing climate change and interventions targeting the management and control of AMR. The remaining literature focused on the shared drivers of AMR and climate change, the trade-offs between climate actions that have unanticipated negative outcomes for AMR (or vice versa), and, finally, the pathways through which AMR can negatively influence climate change. Our findings indicate multiple intersections through which climate change and AMR can and do connect. Research in this area is still nascent, disciplinarily isolated, and only beginning to converge, with few documents primarily focused on the equal intersection of both topics. Greater empirical and evidence-based attention is needed to investigate knowledge gaps related to specific climate change hazards and antimicrobial resistant fungi, helminths, protists, and viruses.}, }
@article {pmid39674157, year = {2024}, author = {Boudreault, J and Campagna, C and Lavigne, &#xc9; and Chebana, F}, title = {Projecting the overall heat-related health burden and associated economic costs in a climate change context in Quebec, Canada.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {958}, number = {}, pages = {178022}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178022}, pmid = {39674157}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Extreme heat represents a major health risk for the world's population, that is amplified by climate change. However, the health costs associated with these heat events have only been little studied. To stimulate the implementation of effective interventions against extreme heat, a more comprehensive economic valuation of these health impacts is crucial. In this study, a general framework for assessing historical and projected heat-related health costs is presented and then applied to the province of Quebec (Canada). First, heat-related mortality and morbidity, as well as the number of extreme heatwaves, were computed for a historical (∼2000) and projected (∼2050) period under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). Then, these heat-related numbers were converted into 1) direct healthcare costs, 2) indirect productivity costs and 3) intangible societal costs, using the best available cost information. Results showed that historical heat-related health costs were respectively 15M$, 5M$ and 3.6G$ (in 2019 Canadian dollars) annually for the direct, indirect and intangible components in Quebec, Canada. Under a middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP2-4.5), there was a 3-fold increase in total costs due to climate and population change (10.9G$ annually), while under a pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5), the increase was 5-fold (17.4G$). Total costs were mostly driven by intangible impacts, such as loss of life (∼90-95%) and of well-being during heatwaves (∼5-10%). Given that heat-related health costs are already significant, and likely to increase substantially in the future, this study has demonstrated the vital need to reduce its burden now and in the future by adopting more measures to mitigate climate change and adapt to heat.}, }
@article {pmid39673116, year = {2024}, author = {Hosseini, Z and Gholami, M and Bonyadi, Z}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Human Health.}, journal = {Iranian biomedical journal}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {78}, pmid = {39673116}, issn = {2008-823X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: One of the challenges of the 21st century is climate change, a detrimental consequence of industrial growth and urbanization and one of the major environmental concerns of this century. Climate change has influenced various aspects of human life. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the effects of climate change on human health.<br><br>SEARCH STRATEGY: The study reviewed 32 articles between 2011 and 2023. Research was conducted using databases such as Google Scholar and ScienceDirect, employing keywords such as "climate change," "weather changes," "human health," and "disease."<br><br>RESULTS: Studies indicated that climate change and global warming could directly or indirectly cause many health problems. It was estimated that between 2030 and 2050, climate change will result in about 25,000 additional deaths per year due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress. Research conducted from 2011 to 2023 showed that climate change can contribute to the emergence or exacerbation of certain diseases and health issues. Among these health problems were changes in certain seasonal diseases, the spread of infectious diseases such as malaria and waterborne illnesses, and issues related to insects. Additionally, cardiovascular diseases, strokes, cholera, asthma, allergies, respiratory diseases, skin cancer, and bladder cancer were of concern. Other health issues included those caused by food and nutrition, heat-related illnesses, emerging fungal infections, heat stress, associated disorders, and complications arising from occupational exposures in hot outdoor environments. Mental health and stress-related disorders were also significant. Recent studies indicated that 37% of deaths associated with heat waves during the warmer months were linked to climate change. Furthermore, there was a notable correlation between climatic parameters and mortality rates from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, with statistical significance at the 95% and 99% levels.<br><br>CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION: Our findings revealed that global warming is causing significant climate changes, which can change the pattern of weather-related diseases. Although many factors contribute to the occurrence of diseases, extreme heat, increased sun exposure, and cold nights in regions with adverse weather conditions can lead to a rise in the prevalence and progress of human diseases.}, }
@article {pmid39671486, year = {2024}, author = {Li, J and Dong, S and Zhao, G and Cawood, PA and Johnston, ST and Zhang, J and Xin, Y and Wang, J}, title = {Cretaceous coastal mountain building and potential impacts on climate change in East Asia.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {10}, number = {50}, pages = {eads0587}, pmid = {39671486}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Crustal thickness and elevation variations control mountain building and climate change at convergent margins. As an archetypal Andean-type convergent margin, eastern Asia preserves voluminous magmas ideal for quantifying these processes and their impacts on climate. Here, we use Sr/Y and Ce/Y proxies to show that the crust experienced alternating thickening and thinning during the Late Mesozoic. We identify a noticeably thickened (50 to 55 kilometers) crust associated with tectonic shortening at 120 to 105 million years, corresponding to a >2500-meter-high coastal mountain range. Using climate simulation with the Community Earth System Model, we demonstrate that the mountain uplift changed Asian atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns, increased inland aridity (~15%), and prompted the eastward desert expansion, contributing substantially to the arid zonal belt across mid- to low-latitude Asia. These findings-compatible with independent geological, geophysical, and climatic observations-have global implications for broadening our understanding of Earth-system interactions in the Cretaceous greenhouse world.}, }
@article {pmid39670664, year = {2024}, author = {Naylor, R and Shaw, E}, title = {Atmospheres of influence: the role of journal editors in shaping early climate change narratives.}, journal = {British journal for the history of science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-20}, doi = {10.1017/S0007087424001304}, pmid = {39670664}, issn = {1474-001X}, support = {Rockefeller Archive Center Research Stipend//Rockefeller Archive Center/ ; Legacies Grant//Royal Meteorological Society/ ; }, abstract = {The role of editorial staff in shaping early climate change narratives has been underexplored and deserves more attention. During the 1970s, the epistemological underpinnings of the production of knowledge on climate change were contested between scientists who favoured computer-based atmospheric simulations and those who were more interested in investigating the long-term history of climatic changes. Although the former group later became predominant in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change during the 1980s, the latter had a sizable influence over climate discourse during the 1970s. Of these, one of the key popularizers of climate discourse during the 1970s was the British climatologist Hubert Lamb (1913-97). The correspondence between Lamb and journal editors who gatekept and curated different audiences helped craft resonant messages about climate change and its potential effects, and we explore Lamb's interactions with editors of Nature, the UNESCO Courier, The Ecologist and Development Forum in the 1973-4 period. Through understanding how climate change discussion was influenced by editors, we gain an insight into how such narratives had to be adjusted to fit into pre-existing discourses before their importance was more widely established, and how these adjustments helped shape conceptualizations of climate change as a global, human-caused phenomenon and a source of universal threat.}, }
@article {pmid39670274, year = {2024}, author = {Li, X and Wang, Z and Wang, S and Qian, Z}, title = {MaxEnt and Marxan modeling to predict the potential habitat and priority planting areas of Coffea arabica in Yunnan, China under climate change scenario.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1471653}, pmid = {39670274}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Coffea arabica (Arabica coffee) is an important cash crop in Yunnan, China. Ongoing climate change has made coffee production more difficult to sustain, posing challenges for the region's coffee industry. Predictions of the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for Arabica coffee in Yunnan could provide a theoretical basis for the cultivation and rational management of this species.<br><br>METHODS: In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of suitable habitat for Arabica coffee in Yunnan under current and future (2021-2100) climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) using 56 distributional records and 17 environmental variables and to analyze the important environmental factors. Marxan model was used to plan the priority planting areas for this species at last.<br><br>RESULTS: The predicted suitable and sub-suitable areas were about 4.21&#xd7;10[4] km[2] and 13.87&#xd7;10[4] km[2], respectively, accounting for 47.15% of the total area of the province. The suitable areas were mainly concentrated in western and southern Yunnan. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, altitude, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, slope, and aluminum saturation were the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of Arabica coffee in Yunnan Province. Changes in habitat suitability for Arabica coffee were most significant and contracted under the SSP3-7.0 climate scenario, while expansion was highest under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario. Priority areas for Arabica coffee cultivation in Yunnan Province under the 30% and 50% targets were Pu'er, Xishuangbanna, Honghe, Dehong, and Kunming.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate, soil, and topography combine to influence the potential geographic distribution of Arabica coffee. Future changes in suitable habitat areas under different climate scenarios should lead to the delineation of coffee-growing areas based on appropriate environmental conditions and active policy measures to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39670262, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, M and Liu, X and Song, Y and Hu, Y and Yang, C and Li, J and Jin, S and Gu, K and Yang, Z and Huang, W and Su, J and Wang, L}, title = {Tobacco production under global climate change: combined effects of heat and drought stress and coping strategies.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1489993}, pmid = {39670262}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {With the intensification of global climate change, high-temperature and drought stress have emerged as critical environmental stressors affecting tobacco plants' growth, development, and yield. This study provides a comprehensive review of tobacco's physiological and biochemical responses to optimal temperature conditions and limited irrigation across various growth stages. It assesses the effects of these conditions on yield and quality, along with the synergistic interactions and molecular mechanisms associated with these stressors. High-temperature and drought stress induces alterations in both enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidant activities, lead to the accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), and promote lipid peroxidation, all of which adversely impact physiological processes such as photosynthetic gas exchange, respiration, and nitrogen metabolism, ultimately resulting in reduced biomass, productivity, and quality. The interaction of these stressors activates novel plant defense mechanisms, contributing to exacerbated synergistic damage. Optimal temperature conditions enhance the activation of heat shock proteins (HSPs) and antioxidant-related genes at the molecular level. At the same time, water stress triggers the expression of genes regulated by both abscisic acid-dependent and independent signaling pathways. This review also discusses contemporary agricultural management strategies, applications of genetic engineering, and biotechnological and molecular breeding methods designed to mitigate adverse agroclimatic responses, focusing on enhancing tobacco production under heat and drought stress conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39669705, year = {2024}, author = {Ross, AG and Connolly, K and Vögele, S and Kuckshinrichs, W}, title = {A macro-level analysis of the socio-economic impacts of climate change driven water scarcity: Incorporating behavioural and resilience aspects.}, journal = {Water research X}, volume = {23}, number = {}, pages = {100223}, pmid = {39669705}, issn = {2589-9147}, abstract = {Recognising the urgent need to address water scarcity resulting from climate change, there is a growing push to enhance the resilience of water (and related) systems. For instance, policymakers are now urging companies to shift from short-term focused strategies towards long-term approaches to effectively manage water scarcity. This paper utilises a custom-built dynamic multisectoral model to assess the socio-economic impacts at a macro-level of temporary water scarcity. The focus of the analysis is to identify the effects that varying levels of investment foresight may have on economic resilience. Specifically, the model incorporates often overlooked factors such as behavioural and resilience aspects. By considering these key elements, a more comprehensive understanding of the system-wide implications of water scarcity on the broader economy is provided. The analysis shows how firms' foresight, or lack thereof, impacts their response to water scarcity and the subsequent impact on the economy. Sector-specific analyses shed light on the potential negative impacts of water scarcity on sectors like agriculture, food, and electricity production and distribution. Yet, the analysis also reveals that certain sectors can benefit from competitiveness effects, which can mitigate the adverse economic implications of water scarcity. However, it should be noted that these sectors may contribute to a catch-up effect on water use. The policy recommendations arising from this research emphasise the promotion of anticipation and preparedness among firms. It is crucial to prioritise resilience-building measures in all sectors, whether they directly rely on water or not.}, }
@article {pmid39667695, year = {2024}, author = {Moreira, FDS and Rodrigues, GD and Morales, DF and Donalisio, MR and Kremer, FS and Krüger, RF}, title = {Effects of climate change on the distribution of Molossus molossus and the potential risk of Orthohantavirus transmission in the Neotropical region.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {107497}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107497}, pmid = {39667695}, issn = {1873-6254}, abstract = {Molossus molossus is a widely distributed neotropical bat species in the Americas, often found in urban areas. This study evaluated climate change effects on the potential geographic distribution of M. molossus, a natural host of zoonotic pathogens such as Orthohantavirus, in the Neotropical region. Using ecological niche modeling (ENM), models were generated for current (1970-2000) and future (2070) climate scenarios based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and two Global Circulation Models (MPI-ESM1-2-LR and IPSL-CM6A-LR). Results indicated that in the current scenario, warm and coastal areas of the Neotropics are suitable for M. molossus occurrence. Risk areas for Orthohantavirus transmission were mapped by overlapping the probability of urban expansion with projections of climatic suitability for the bat. For both future scenarios (2070), projections indicate an expansion of suitable climatic areas for M. molossus over urban expansion zones, specifically in Brazil, Paraguay, Peru, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize, Mexico, the United States, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico. However, projections also indicate the Lesser Antilles under climate threat, considering that no climatic suitability areas will remain. These findings provide important information for planning surveillance and mitigation actions for zoonotic risks associated with M. molossus, considering climate change impacts on its geographic distribution in the Neotropical region.}, }
@article {pmid39667387, year = {2024}, author = {Gordon-Strachan, GM and Parker, SY and Harewood, HC and Méndez-Lázaro, PA and Saketa, ST and Parchment, KF and Walawender, M and Abdulkadri, AO and Beggs, PJ and Buss, DF and Chodak, RJ and Dasgupta, S and De Santis, O and Guthrie-Dixon, NG and Hassan, S and Kennard, H and Maharaj, SB and Marshall, KG and McFarlane, SR and McKenzie, KS and Moradi-Lakeh, M and Murphy, M and Mycoo, MA and Ng Shiu, R and O'Hare, MB and Oura, CAL and Owfi, F and Owfi, A and Polson, KA and Rabbaniha, M and Robinson, EJZ and Smith, DC and Tabatabaei, M and Tuiasosopo, LL and Romanello, M}, title = {The 2024 small island developing states report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Global health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00421-2}, pmid = {39667387}, issn = {2214-109X}, }
@article {pmid39667158, year = {2024}, author = {Boschetti, T and Segadelli, S and Gori, F and Antolini, G and Bellini, L and Raso, A and Selmo, E and Barbieri, M and Iacumin, P and Guidetti, E and Gargini, A}, title = {A preliminary study on the effects of rainfall-related conditions on chromium increase in ultramafic-hosted springs: A possible climate change concern?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {958}, number = {}, pages = {177826}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177826}, pmid = {39667158}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigates the impact of intense rainfall on chromium concentrations in five springs discharging from ultramafic rocks in the Northern Apennines (Italy), which are used for drinking water supply through integration into the local water network. Total chromium concentration increased significantly in response to heavy rain, exceeding the WHO drinking water guideline value (up to 80 μg/L) in one spring and the forthcoming 2036 EU target of 25 μg/L in all the springs. This increase could be attributed to a synergistic combination of factors: i) the reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) by natural organic matter (NOM) in soil and transport as NOM-Cr(III) colloids and/or during the oxidation of magnetite to ferrihydrite in the aquifer; ii) the abundance of detrital ultramafic material in the study area, which may store Cr(III)-bearing colloids too; iii) a triggering effect of first intense rainfall after a 20 dry consecutive days period (wet-dry cycle). Moreover, the persistence of a high Cr(III) concentration in the aquifer even a month after the intense rainfall event aligns with previous laboratory studies on NOM-Cr(III) colloidal stability, which showed that such colloids are highly stable and can persist in solution for at least 20 days.}, }
@article {pmid39663613, year = {2024}, author = {Jung, Y}, title = {Climate Change and Nursing.}, journal = {Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {475-477}, pmid = {39663613}, issn = {2093-758X}, }
@article {pmid39663537, year = {2024}, author = {Pavia, G and Branda, F and Ciccozzi, A and Romano, C and Locci, C and Azzena, I and Pascale, N and Marascio, N and Quirino, A and Gigliotti, S and Divenuto, F and Matera, G and Giovanetti, M and Casu, M and Sanna, D and Ceccarelli, G and Ciccozzi, M and Scarpa, F}, title = {The issue of climate change and the spread of tropical diseases in Europe and Italy: vector biology, disease transmission, genome-based monitoring and public health implications.}, journal = {Infectious diseases (London, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-16}, doi = {10.1080/23744235.2024.2437027}, pmid = {39663537}, issn = {2374-4243}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change significantly influences the distribution and severity of tropical diseases. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events are transforming the habitats of vectors like mosquitoes and ticks, promoting their proliferation and geographic spread. These changes have facilitated the resurgence of diseases such as malaria, dengue, and chikungunya fever in previously unaffected areas, including parts of Europe and Italy.<br><br>OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: This review aims to explore the relationship between climate change and the spread of vector-borne and tropical parasitic diseases across Europe, with a particular focus on Italy. Recent studies are analyzed to identify emerging trends in disease transmission influenced by shifting climates. Genome-based monitoring and predictive models incorporating climatic and ecological data are highlighted as methods to enhance disease surveillance and preparedness.<br><br>RESULTS: The analysis reveals a clear link between climate change and altered disease patterns. The proliferation of vectors into new territories is associated with increased incidence of diseases. Genome-based tools demonstrate their utility in tracking the evolution of pathogens, particularly regarding changes in virulence, drug resistance, and adaptability to new climates. Predictive models have proven effective in anticipating outbreaks and supporting timely public health interventions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: To mitigate the risks posed by climate-induced changes in disease dynamics, continuous monitoring and international collaboration are essential. Strengthening health systems' resilience through mitigation and adaptation strategies is crucial for preventing future epidemics. These insights contribute to the development of sustainable long-term policies for managing tropical diseases in the context of climate change, ensuring timely responses to public health emergencies.}, }
@article {pmid39662415, year = {2024}, author = {Carli, A and Centritto, M and Materassi, A and Killi, D and Marino, G and Raschi, A and Haworth, M}, title = {Heat stress reduces stomatal numbers in Ginkgo biloba: Implications for the stomatal method of palaeo-atmospheric [CO2] reconstruction during episodes of global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {958}, number = {}, pages = {177962}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177962}, pmid = {39662415}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The stomata of fossil plants are commonly used as proxies to reconstruct palaeo-atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (palaeo-[CO2]). Stomatal reconstruction of palaeo-[CO2] during global greenhouse periods or episodes of global warming, are particularly important to our understanding of the role of CO2 as a climate system driver. However, the efficacy of the 'stomatal method' for palaeo-[CO2] reconstruction depends upon the strength of the inverse relationship between stomatal number and the [CO2] in which the leaf developed. However, the impact of heat stress on stomatal initiation and development are largely unknown. Ginkgo biloba, a living fossil species, seedlings were grown in controlled environment chambers under 20/25 °C and 30/35 °C night/day temperature regimes. Heat stress in the 30/35 °C treatment impaired photosynthetic function, decreased stomatal conductance (Gs), and reduced stomatal index (SI), indicative of lower stomatal initiation. Modelled theoretical Gs did not correlate with observed measured Gs, undermining the utility of palaeo-[CO2] reconstructions based on stomatal diffusion modelling. The lower stomatal initiation of G. biloba leaves from the higher temperature resulted in greater estimates of [CO2] based on SI values using the nearest living equivalent and SI-[CO2] transfer function approaches. Heat stress may diminish the effectiveness of the stomatal method in reconstructing palaeo-[CO2] during intervals of global warming marked by floral turnover in Earth history.}, }
@article {pmid39662414, year = {2024}, author = {Fu, Z and Zhang, Y and Liu, Y and Jiang, X and Guo, H and Wang, S and Li, Z}, title = {Climate change driven land use evolution and soil heavy metal release effects in lakes on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {958}, number = {}, pages = {177898}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177898}, pmid = {39662414}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In recent decades, global warming has intensified hydrological cycles, raising concerns about the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes, water quality, and water resources across various temporal and spatial scales. These changes significantly affect water resource management and environmental protection policies and may also influence the ecological health and socio-economic well-being of lake regions. Qinghai Lake, the largest inland lake and a major water source reservoir in China, plays a crucial role in the ecological security of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, in recent years, with the ongoing development of the economy and society throughout the province, there has been an increase in algal blooms in the nearshore area of Qinghai Lake, with the affected area expanding annually. There is currently no clear consensus on the causes of eutrophication in lakes, and comprehensive, in-depth research on how different land use types-critical to the material migration and transformation processes of natural water bodies-affects water quality and ecological security, as well as the interactions between nutrients and heavy metals, is lacking. Therefore, it is essential to monitor and understand the effects of climate change on lakes and to develop adaptive strategies to mitigate and respond to these impacts amidst rapid economic and social development. The lake environmental pollution early warning system developed in this study provides a scientific research paradigm for lake water pollution control and offers valuable data support for policymakers in formulating ecological protection and development strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39661910, year = {2024}, author = {Taboun, O and DesRoche, C and Hanneman, K}, title = {Imperative for a health-centred focus on climate change in radiology.}, journal = {Journal of medical imaging and radiation oncology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1754-9485.13813}, pmid = {39661910}, issn = {1754-9485}, abstract = {Climate change negatively impacts individual and population-level health through multiple pathways, including poor air quality, extreme heat and changes in infectious disease. These health effects will lead to higher health system and medical imaging utilisation. At the same time, the delivery of radiology services generates substantial greenhouse gas emissions. Mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental impact of medical imaging and adaptation strategies to build resiliency to current and future impacts of climate change in radiology should be centred on human health. A health-centred response in radiology reinforces the role of radiologists as physicians and emphasises the opportunity for medical imaging to promote health and advance our understanding of climate-related health effects. This review discusses the need for a health-centred focus on climate change in radiology, including the effects of climate change on human health and health systems, intersection of climate change with health equity, health benefits of climate action and opportunities to leverage medical imaging to improve human health.}, }
@article {pmid39661524, year = {2024}, author = {Clayton, S and Crandon, T}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health.}, journal = {Annual review of clinical psychology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-clinpsy-081423-025932}, pmid = {39661524}, issn = {1548-5951}, abstract = {Climate change negatively threatens mental health through acute, chronic, indirect, and vicarious pathways. Though these psychological consequences will be felt globally, specific populations are at increased risk. This article describes the complex and diverse ways in which climate change can affect mental health and the resulting challenges that health care services will inevitably face. In responding to these threats, both prevention and intervention are urgently needed. Although mitigating the extent of climate change is crucial, we can also foster resilience to climate change-the ability to manage, respond to, and prepare for climate-related adversity-at the systemic, community, and individual levels. The mental health field must prepare for the significant burden that climate change will place on population health and well-being in the long term. In this review, we aim to inform and provide examples of how decision makers, the mental health discipline, and mental health professionals can respond.}, }
@article {pmid39661413, year = {2024}, author = {Vineis, P and Mangone, L and Belesova, K and Tonne, C and Alfano, R and Strapasson, A and Millett, C and Jennings, N and Woods, J and Mwabonje, O}, title = {Integration of Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Actions and Health Co-Benefits: A Framework Using the Global Calculator.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {132}, number = {12}, pages = {125001}, pmid = {39661413}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Global Calculator is an open-source model of the world's energy, land, and food systems. It is a pioneering online calculator to project the impact of interventions to mitigate climate change on global temperature. A few studies have been conducted to evaluate the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation, though they are still fragmentary.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Our objectives are to identify which sectors could yield the greatest results in terms of climate change mitigation and suggest whether existing evidence could be used to weight mitigation actions based on their ancillary impacts on human health or health co-benefits.<br><br>METHODS: Using the International Energy Agency (IEA) 4DS scenario as a referent (i.e., the "4-degree Celsius increase scenario"), we simulated changes in different policy "levers" (encompassing 43 potential technological and behavioral interventions, grouped by 14 sectors) and assessed the relative importance of each lever in terms of changes in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 and cumulative emissions by 2100. In addition, we examined existing estimates for the health co-benefits associated with different interventions, using evidence from the Lancet Pathfinder and four other tools.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Our simulations suggest that-after accounting for demographic change-transition from fossil fuels to renewables and changes in agriculture, forestry, land use, and food production are key sectors for climate change mitigation. The role of interventions in other sectors, like carbon capture and storage (CCS) or nuclear power, is more modest. Our work also identifies mitigation actions that are likely to have large health co-benefits, including shifts to renewable energy and changes in land use as well as dietary and travel behaviors. In conclusion, some of the sectors/interventions which have been at the center of policy debate (e.g., CCS or nuclear power) are likely to be far less important than changes in areas such as dietary habits or forestry practices by 2050. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14906.}, }
@article {pmid39660613, year = {2025}, author = {Özkan, A and Kolcu, M and Yilmaz, A and Akbaş, G}, title = {Is Ecological Anxiety Due to Climate Change Associated With the Fertility Preferences of Women?.}, journal = {Journal of evaluation in clinical practice}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {e14265}, doi = {10.1111/jep.14265}, pmid = {39660613}, issn = {1365-2753}, support = {//The authors received no specific funding for this work./ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; *Climate Change ; Adult ; *Anxiety/psychology ; Middle Aged ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; *Fertility ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Eco-anxiety caused by climate change, which is a significant public health problem, has negative effects on sexual and reproductive health, and these effects are expected to increase continuously. This study was conducted to determine the relationship between eco-anxiety caused by climate change and the fertility preferences of women.<br><br>METHODS: This descriptive study was conducted between June and August 2024 with 491 women at the ages of 18 to 49 who were registered at a family health center. A personal information form, the Attitudes toward Fertility and Childbearing Scale, and the Hogg Eco-Anxiety Scale were used to collect data.<br><br>RESULTS: The mean total AFCS score of the participants was 66.1&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;14.2, while their mean total HEAS score was 27.1&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;7.0. There was a weak negative correlation between the AFCS scores and HEAS scores of the participants (r&#x2009;=&#x2009;-0.124, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.006).<br><br>CONCLUSION: As the ecological anxiety levels of women increased, their attitudes toward childbearing became more negative.}, }
@article {pmid39660563, year = {2024}, author = {Niebel, D and Tso, S and Parker, ER and Rosenbach, M and Tan, E and Thio, HB and Coates, S and Andersen, LK and Wolstencroft, PW and Hecker, C and Saha, S and de Berker, D}, title = {Dermatological societies and their climate change and sustainability commitment through 2024.}, journal = {Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology : JEADV}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jdv.20488}, pmid = {39660563}, issn = {1468-3083}, }
@article {pmid39660373, year = {2024}, author = {Byrne, M and Lamare, MD}, title = {Climate change and polar marine invertebrates: life-history responses in a warmer, high CO2 world.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {227}, number = {23}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.245765}, pmid = {39660373}, issn = {1477-9145}, support = {AAD#3134//Australian Antarctic Division/ ; MBIE ANTA1801//Antarctic Science Platform/ ; NZARI RFP 2016-1//New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Invertebrates/physiology ; *Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Aquatic Organisms/physiology ; Life History Traits ; Arctic Regions ; Seawater/chemistry ; Oceans and Seas ; Antarctic Regions ; }, abstract = {Polar marine invertebrates serve as bellwethers for species vulnerabilities in the face of changing climate at high latitudes of the Earth. Ocean acidification, warming/heatwaves, freshening, sea ice retreat and productivity change are challenges for polar species. Adaptations to life in cold water with intensely seasonal productivity has shaped species traits at both poles. Polar species have life histories often characterised as K-strategist or K-selected (e.g. slow growth and development, larval hypometabolism) that make them sensitive to climate stress and altered seasonal productivity. Moderate warming results in faster development and can have positive effects on development, up to a limit. However, ocean acidification can retard development, impair skeletogenesis and result in smaller larvae. Given the fast pace of warming, data on the thermal tolerance of larvae from diverse species is urgently needed, as well as knowledge of adaptive responses to ocean acidification and changes to sea ice and productivity. Predicted productivity increase would benefit energy-limited reproduction and development, while sea ice loss negatively impacts species with reproduction that directly or indirectly depend on this habitat. It is critical to understand the interactive effects between warming, acidification and other stressors. Polar specialists cannot migrate, making them susceptible to competition and extinction from range-extending subpolar species. The borealisation and australisation of Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems, respectively, is underway as these regions become more hospitable for the larval and adult life-history stages of lower-latitude species. Differences in biogeography and pace of change point to different prospects for Arctic and Antarctic communities. In this Commentary, we hypothesise outcomes for polar species based on life history traits and sensitivity to climate change and suggest research avenues to test our predictions.}, }
@article {pmid39659729, year = {2024}, author = {Kolanowska, M and Scaccabarozzi, D}, title = {Does Climate Change Pose a Threat to the Guild Mimicry System of Australian Orchids?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {e70633}, pmid = {39659729}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global warming is one of the biggest threats to global biodiversity causing not only changes in the patterns of precipitation and temperature but also disturbing ecological interactions. The aim of our study was to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution of food-deceptive orchid species whose pollination strategy relies on a strict association with pollinators and co-occurring rewarding Faboideae plants. We used the ecological niche modeling approach to evaluate future overlap of the suitable niches of studied orchid species with the predicted distribution of their ecological partners. Models were made based on two different global circulation models (FIO, CNRM). CNRM projections predict expansion of orchids' geographical range. In contrast, FIO prediction is less optimistic, forecasting species range contraction. The studied Faboideae species showed different responses to predicted global warming with no consistent patterns in how their suitable niches might change. Most climate change projections and scenarios of the future modifications of temperature and precipitation patterns do not predict significant loss of suitable niches of Trichocolletes bees (Colletidae) pollinating Diuris species. However, global warming has the potential to disrupt interactions between the studied orchids and their co-occurring pea plants by altering the overlap of their geographical ranges which can further disturb pollination success. CNRM projections predict an overall loss of Faboideae within the potential geographical range of Diuris brumalis. Conversely, FIO projections suggest a less extensive predicted divergence. Our simulations offer suggestions for conservation strategies of orchids and potentially for other species that have a similar pollination strategy. The areas indicated here as suitable in the future for the occurrence of all ecological partners can be important climate refugia to consider in local conservation plans. The approach used in our study can serve as a model for understanding the potential effects of climate change on the strength of the pollination system via food deception.}, }
@article {pmid39659442, year = {2024}, author = {Olazabal, M and Amorim-Maia, AT and Alda-Vidal, C and Goodwin, S}, title = {What is limiting how we imagine climate change adaptation?.}, journal = {Current opinion in environmental sustainability}, volume = {71}, number = {}, pages = {101476}, pmid = {39659442}, issn = {1877-3435}, abstract = {Imaginaries of adaptation are currently dominated by technocratic, homogenous, top-down approaches that hinder sustainable, just, and effective adaptation worldwide. We have identified three practices that contribute to this problem: (1) an assumption of universality in adaptation; (2) a neglect of pluralistic knowledge systems and values; and (3) an oversimplification of adaptation processes. These three practices have been found to lead to reproductions of vulnerabilities, unsustainable outcomes, or ephemeral changes. New ways of conceptualising and doing adaptation are necessary to expand imaginaries and visions around what adaptation can and cannot be. Through two examples (everyday adaptations and nature-based solutions), our review indicates that expanding or adopting alternative imaginaries of adaptation can help localise adaptation practice, particularly by acknowledging the need for multiple forms of knowledge and the iterative nature of adaptation governance processes.}, }
@article {pmid39658970, year = {2024}, author = {Hossain, N}, title = {Climate change and reproductive health.}, journal = {JPMA. The Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association}, volume = {74}, number = {12}, pages = {2053-2054}, doi = {10.47391/JPMA.24-96}, pmid = {39658970}, issn = {0030-9982}, }
@article {pmid39658190, year = {2024}, author = {Bellizzi, S}, title = {The health of Internally Displaced People (IDPs), between conflicts and the increasing role of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jtm/taae151}, pmid = {39658190}, issn = {1708-8305}, abstract = {Globally, the number of IDPs has jumped from 50.3 to 75.9 million in the past 5 years, and their displacement is increasingly driven by climate-change, replacing conflicts as main factor in 2023. This underscores the need to further explore the nexus of climate change, health, migration, and to mobilize support.}, }
@article {pmid39657712, year = {2024}, author = {Potestio, L and Martora, F and Villani, A and Megna, M}, title = {Climate change and the role of dermatologists: a call to action.}, journal = {Clinical and experimental dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/ced/llae526}, pmid = {39657712}, issn = {1365-2230}, }
@article {pmid39655783, year = {2025}, author = {Geiger, N and Swim, JK and Fraser, J}, title = {With a little help from my friends: Social support, hope and climate change engagement.}, journal = {The British journal of social psychology}, volume = {64}, number = {1}, pages = {e12837}, pmid = {39655783}, issn = {2044-8309}, support = {//National Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Social Support ; *Hope ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; Intention ; }, abstract = {Hope is a future-oriented emotion that attunes people to the possibility of positive change, and thus could potentially catalyse societal engagement with climate change. A recent meta-analysis suggests that the relationship between hope and climate action is most robust when the target of hope is climate engagement (i.e. action hope) rather than climate change more broadly. Yet, this previous meta-analysis also suggests that fostering action hope and climate engagement may be challenging via typical short media messages used in many studies. Here we consider an alternative source of action hope: receiving social support. Two studies tested whether social support motivates climate action via increased action hope. Study 1 (correlational online survey, pre-registered, N = 887) demonstrates that, as predicted, both instrumental and emotional support predict intentions to take civic action and these effects are explained by action hope. Study 2 (field study, Neducators = 84, Ncontacts = 520) mostly replicates and extends these findings in a field setting, demonstrating that social support recipients' action hope is also associated with social support reported by support providers (here, environmental educators) and that this action hope again explains a possible relationship between social support and climate engagement.}, }
@article {pmid39654331, year = {2024}, author = {Yazdani, M and Amiri Sabouri, S and Anvari, M and Raesi, R}, title = {Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Prevalence of Dengue Fever.}, journal = {Iranian biomedical journal}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {58}, pmid = {39654331}, issn = {2008-823X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Dengue/epidemiology/transmission ; Humans ; Animals ; *Aedes/virology ; Prevalence ; Mosquito Vectors/virology ; Dengue Virus ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is any change in weather parameters such as temperature and rainfall for a long time and may be caused by natural factors or human activities. Today, climate change has unwanted consequences for health worldwide, and dengue fever is among these diseases. Dengue (bone-breaking fever) is the most common disease transmitted by the Aedes mosquito infected with dengue virus worldwide, affecting more than 200 million people every year. This disease is characterized by fever, malaise, headache, and rash. The present study aimed to investigate the effects of climate change on the prevalence of dengue fever.<br><br>SEARCH STRATEGY: The search for keywords such as "dengue fever", "climate change", and "Aedes" was performed in the PubMed database and Google Scholar search engine and their Persian equivalents in the internal databases such as SID and CIVILICA from 2010 to 2024. In the initial search, 259 articles were extracted and included in the study, followed by reviewing 26 articles.<br><br>RESULTS: Weather influenced dengue in three aspects: the virus, vector, and transmission environment. The virus underwent part of its development within the vector mosquito, and its life cycle was dependent on temperature, rainfall, and humidity. Two mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, adapted to human habitations by laying eggs in both natural (tree holes) and artificial (water tanks, pots, bottles, and containers) environments. Heavy rainfall washed away these eggs and larvae from these reservoirs; however, stagnant water can create ideal breeding conditions. An increase in temperature accelerates the reproduction and growth rates of mosquitoes while also shortening the virus's incubation period. Conversely, if temperatures exceed 44 &#xb0;C, the risk of dengue transmission diminishes due to the desiccation of mosquito breeding sites. During the cold period,adult mosquitoes died, but their eggs survived. High relative humidity also increased the metabolic process in adult mosquitoes. Therefore, in the wet season, the incidence of dengue was the highest, and the disease was less common in the dry season. Also, climate change weakened human immunity against the disease.<br><br>CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION: Climate change influences the transmission of the disease by changing the geographic range of the vector, increasing reproduction, biting, and shortening the incubation period. Solutions such as the development of renewable energy sources and the enhancement of public awareness should be implemented to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39653762, year = {2024}, author = {Lang, W and Zhang, Y and Li, X and Meng, F and Liu, Q and Wang, K and Xu, H and Chen, A and Peñuelas, J and Janssens, IA and Piao, S}, title = {Phenological divergence between plants and animals under climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39653762}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {41988101//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41988101//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41988101//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41988101//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has altered the timing of recurring biological cycles in both plants and animals. Phenological changes may be unequal within and among trophic levels, potentially impacting the intricate interactions that regulate ecosystem functioning. Here we compile and analyse a global dataset of terrestrial phenological observations, including nearly half a million time series for both plants and animals. Our analysis reveals an increasing phenological asynchronization between plants and animals from 1981 to 2020, with a stronger overall advancement of late-season phenophases for plants than for animals. Almost 30% of temporal variations in plant phenophases can be explained by the timing of the preceding phenophases. This temporal dependency allows the advancement caused by warming to accumulate and propagate through seasons, advancing later phenophases more than earlier phases. By contrast, animals rely on various environmental cues and resource-tracking strategies to initiate their life-cycle activities, which weakens their cross-phenophase linkage and undermines the effect of warming. Our results suggest that future warming may increase phenological asynchronization between plants and animals and potentially disturb trophic interactions and ecosystem stability.}, }
@article {pmid39653707, year = {2024}, author = {Monastersky, R}, title = {The climate-crusading lawyer who sued Switzerland over global warming - and won.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-03897-y}, pmid = {39653707}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39653490, year = {2024}, author = {Anelli, P and Haidukowski, M and Ferrara, M and Kisikkaya, A and Pembeci, C and Ozer, H and Mulè, G and Loi, M and Moretti, A and Susca, A}, title = {Monitoring fungi and mycotoxin potential in pistachio nuts of Turkish origin: A snap-shot for climate change scenario.}, journal = {Fungal biology}, volume = {128}, number = {8 Pt B}, pages = {2431-2438}, doi = {10.1016/j.funbio.2024.07.009}, pmid = {39653490}, issn = {1878-6146}, mesh = {*Pistacia/microbiology ; Turkey ; *Mycotoxins/metabolism/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Aspergillus/metabolism/genetics/isolation &amp; purification/classification ; Aflatoxins/metabolism/analysis ; Nuts/microbiology ; Aspergillus flavus/genetics/metabolism/classification/isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {Pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) is an economically important tree nut. Due to its nutritional properties and health benefits, it is considered a healthy food and thus widely consumed worldwide. However, fungal contamination of the commodities has received considerable attention because of possible contamination by toxigenic fungi, important source of mycotoxins, resulting from secondary metabolism and hazards to health consumer. Members of the genus Aspergillus, mainly Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus niger, are reported as occurring most frequently on pistachio nuts, because able to grow in the presence of low amounts of water and to produce mycotoxins (aflatoxins and ochratoxins), that are well known for their harmful health effects on humans. Monitoring the contaminating fungal species is particularly worthy of note also in climate change scenario, allowing to notice changes in fungal population composition through the time. This study aimed to contribute to collect data about fungal population and mycotoxins occurred in pistachio samples collected in Turkey: prevalence of 2 species, A. flavus and Aspergillus tubingensis, was assessed. The A. flavus strains consisted of a mixed population of aflatoxin producers and non-producing strains in vitro, with evidence of a new genotype in gene cluster within strains of aflatoxin non-producing chemotype.}, }
@article {pmid39652547, year = {2024}, author = {Bayatvarkeshi, M and Imteaz, MA and Kisi, O and Farahani, M and Ghabaei, M and Al-Janabi, AMS and Hashim, BM and Al-Ramadan, B and Yaseen, ZM}, title = {Correction: Drought trends projection under future climate change scenarios for Iran region.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {e0315634}, pmid = {39652547}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290698.].}, }
@article {pmid39651912, year = {2024}, author = {Lucas, RAI}, title = {Using environmental and exercise physiology to address gender inequalities in climate change and occupational health research.}, journal = {Experimental physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1113/EP091456}, pmid = {39651912}, issn = {1469-445X}, abstract = {Climate change is a health-risk and health-inequity multiplier with excessive heat exposure a direct climate change impact already affecting the health and livelihood of billions globally. Women face greater risks and burdens from climate change impacts. Biological sex may or may not influence an individual's thermoregulatory capacity, heat tolerance or heat susceptibility. However at a population level, sex differences in physiological characteristics (anthropometrics, aerobic capacity, etc.) likely affect thermoregulatory capacity. Still, gender appears to play the most significant role in heat exposure and resulting health impacts. For climate change resilience and adaptation strategies to be effective, public health and occupational guidance/governance must be based on comprehensive and representative evidence. The current dearth of empirical evidence on how excessive heat exposure affects women prohibits this. Environmental and exercise physiology can help address this lack of empirical evidence by adhering to inclusive research guidelines. This paper is based on a symposium presentation given at Physiology 2023 in Harrogate, UK. Using a multi-year cohort study on industrial agricultural workers (the Adelante Initiative) as a case study, this review discusses the role of environmental and exercise physiology in generating inclusive research and evidence to inform occupational and public health guidance/governance for climate change resilience and adaptation, specifically heat exposure.}, }
@article {pmid39651651, year = {2024}, author = {Salehi Sahl Abadi, A and Mohsenian, A and Alboghobeish, A and Esmaeili, SV and Bahmanipour, S and Hashemi, M}, title = {Symptoms and Diseases Related to Occupational Health Caused by Climate Change: A Systematic Literature Review.}, journal = {Iranian biomedical journal}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {41}, pmid = {39651651}, issn = {2008-823X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Occupational Health ; Occupational Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: One of the duties of occupational health engineers is to maintain and improve the physical health of employees. Climate change can cause various symptoms and diseases in workers. The importance of climate change has led to the slogan of World Occupational Safety and Health Day in 2024 being related to the effects of climate change on occupational health. This study aimed to investigate the symptoms and diseases related to occupational health caused by climate change.<br><br>SEARCH STRATEGY: The protocol of this study was prepared and presented according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Relevant keywords between 2000 and 2024 were searched in authoritative academic databases (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar) to identify studies. Scientifically valid studies retrieved by two researchers were reviewed based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, and duplicate and irrelevant articles were excluded. Based on the purpose of the study, the necessary information was extracted from the selected articles and analyzed with a descriptive approach.<br><br>RESULTS: In this systematic review, 29 eligible studies were examined. Climate change resulted in various symptoms and diseases in workers. Symptoms caused by climate change in workers included heat stress, heatstroke, fatigue, dehydration, headache, thirst, heat rash, collapse, muscle cramps, excessive sweating, visual disturbances, and reduced chemical tolerance. Additionally, based on the results of various studies, climate change affected chronic kidney diseases, skin cancer, cardiovascular dysfunction, and infectious and contagious diseases such as malaria and Lyme. Our results showed the effect of climate change on workers' cardiorespiratory health problems, including asthma, lung cancer, heart attacks, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, heat-related death was the most significant consequence of climate change on workers.<br><br>CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION: Climate change causes various symptoms and diseases in workers, negatively affecting their occupational health. Considering the results of the current research and the importance of the subject, occupational health engineers and other individuals related to workers' health should take necessary measures.}, }
@article {pmid39650546, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, L and Wang, P and Xie, G and Wang, W}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change Conditions on the Potential Distribution of Anoplophora glabripennis and Its Host Plants, Salix babylonica and Salix matsudana, in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {e70692}, pmid = {39650546}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) is a phytophagous pest that is seriously endangering Salix babylonica Linn. and S. matsudana Koidz. Poor control can damage local ecosystems, resulting in economic losses and management risks. In the context of climate change, the climatic ecological niche of organisms is no longer compatible with the surrounding environment. To mitigate the effects of climate change, some organisms respond adaptively to climate change through different mechanisms and in different ways. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to explore the potential distribution areas of A. glabripennis and its host plants, S. babylonica and S. matsudana, in response to current and future climate and to determine their movement routes and relative dynamics. The results show that the optimized model exhibits the lowest complexity and excellent prediction accuracy. It is important to note that both temperature and precipitation are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for A. glabripennis and its host plants. This is evidenced by the mean temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month being the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for the host plants. Similarly, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the primary bioclimatic variables constraining the dispersal of A. glabripennis. Under climate change, the suitable areas of both S. babylonica and S. matsudana are declining, while the suitable areas of A. glabripennis are expanding in future climates. Furthermore, three species exhibited a proclivity for migration to higher latitudes in response to climate change. In conclusion, this study contributes to our understanding of the biogeographic characteristics of these A. glabripennis, S. babylonica, and S. matsudana and provides a basis for the formulation of timely conservation strategies to reduce the potential impacts of climate change. This is of great significance for the rational management, utilization, and protection of forest ecosystems in China.}, }
@article {pmid39649959, year = {2024}, author = {Mwalwimba, IK and Manda, M and Ngongondo, C}, title = {The role of indigenous knowledge in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Chikwawa, Malawi.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {1810}, pmid = {39649959}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The role of indigenous knowledge in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation cannot be underestimated. It acts as a preparedness and response tool to climate change-related impacts such as floods, droughts and strong winds. However, inadequate studies about indigenous knowledge in Malawi is a major challenge when dealing with extreme climatic conditions. Learning from indigenous knowledge systems, by investigating first what local communities know and have, can improve the understanding of local conditions and can provide a productive context for activities designed to help communities reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts. This paper assessed the role of indigenous knowledge systems in DRR and climate change variability and adaptation strategies in Chikwawa district. The study used a participatory research approach involving interactive research methods such as focus group discussions (FGDs), key informant interviews and participant observations. Data from key informants and FGDs were analysed thematically. The study revealed various indigenous knowledge which communities in the Chikwawa district use to respond to climate-related impacts such as floods. Some of these include hippopotamus relocating from the river to the village, extreme hissing of pythons in nearby forests, buffaloes and zebras wreaking havoc in the villages and crocodiles flocking to the village.<br><br>CONTRIBUTION: The study concludes that indigenous knowledge provides the basis for problem-solving approaches for local communities, hence, a need to document it at a wider scale.}, }
@article {pmid39649021, year = {2024}, author = {Mousavi, FS and Shenagari, M and Reza Hashemnia, SM and Zandi, M}, title = {Climate change and arboviruses_a growing threat to public health.}, journal = {New microbes and new infections}, volume = {62}, number = {}, pages = {101532}, pmid = {39649021}, issn = {2052-2975}, }
@article {pmid39650338, year = {2022}, author = {Rodrigue, B and Bulonvu, F and Imani, G and Akonkwa, D and Gahigi, A and Klein, JA and Marchant, R and Cuni-Sanchez, A}, title = {Climate change and hunter-gatherers in montane eastern DR Congo.}, journal = {Climate and development}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {431-442}, pmid = {39650338}, issn = {1756-5537}, abstract = {Mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than lower elevations. However, little is known about the climatic changes already observed in African mountains, or the adaptation strategies used by hunter-gatherer communities. Semi-structured interviews were administered to 100 Twa hunter-gatherers living around Mt Kahuzi in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo). We also organized 10 focus-group discussions with Tembo farmers living in the same area and we gathered historical from Kamembe meteorological station. Twa respondents perceived reduced rainfall and fog, and increased temperatures. They also reported reduced crop yields and abundance of forest products (caterpillars, mushrooms, honey). Tembo perceptions of climatic changes and impacts agreed with the Twa. Meteorological data available shows reduced rainfall and increased temperatures - but there are no records on fog. Despite being aware of climatic changes and impacts, Twa are not using any adaptation strategy, while Tembo farmers are using some (as they own land for farming or animal rearing, and are more business minded). For the Twa, their socioeconomic condition create high sensitivity to climate change and constrain adaptive capacity. To help the Twa, we recommend the use of "science with society" (SWS) participatory approach.}, }
@article {pmid39648627, year = {2024}, author = {Andrzejak, M and Knight, TM and Plos, C and Korell, L}, title = {Changes in reproduction mediate the effects of climate change and grassland management on plant population dynamics.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e3063}, doi = {10.1002/eap.3063}, pmid = {39648627}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//Helmholtz Association/ ; FZT 118//Deutsches Zentrum f&#xfc;r integrative Biodiversit&#xe4;tsforschung Halle-Jena-Leipzig/ ; //Alexander von Humboldt Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the largest threats to grassland plant species, which can be modified by land management. Although climate change and land management are expected to separately and interactively influence plant demography, this has been rarely considered in climate change experiments. We used a large-scale experiment in central Germany to quantify the effects of grassland management, climate change, and their joint effect on the demography and population growth rate of 11 plant species all native to this temperate grassland ecosystem. We parameterized integral projection models with five years of demographic data to project population growth rate. We hypothesized that plant populations perform better in the ambient than in the future climate treatment that creates hotter and drier summer conditions. Further, we hypothesized that plant performance interactively responds to climate and land management in a species-specific manner based on the drought, mowing, and grazing tolerances as well as the flowering phenology of each species. Due to extreme drought events, over half of our study species went quasi extinct, which highlights how extreme climate events can influence long-term experimental results. We found no consistent support for our expectation that plants perform better in ambient compared with future climate conditions. However, several species showed interactive responses to the treatments, indicating that optimal management strategies for plant performance are expected to shift with climate change. Changes in population growth rates of these species across treatments were mostly due to changes in plant reproduction. Experiments combined with measuring plant demographic responses provide a way to isolate the effects of different drivers on the long-term persistence of species and to identify the demographic vital rates that are critical to manage in the future. Our study suggests that it will become increasingly difficult to maintain species with preferences for moister soil conditions, and that climate and land use can interactively alter demographic responses of the remaining grassland species.}, }
@article {pmid39647962, year = {2024}, author = {Beydon, M and Roeser, A and Costedoat-Chalumeau, N and de Sainte-Marie, B and Nguyen, Y and , }, title = {[Impact of climate change on immune-mediated inflammatory diseases].}, journal = {La Revue de medecine interne}, volume = {45}, number = {12}, pages = {739-743}, doi = {10.1016/j.revmed.2024.11.016}, pmid = {39647962}, issn = {1768-3122}, }
@article {pmid39647300, year = {2024}, author = {Zhou, X and Xing, S and Xu, J and Tian, J and Niu, A and Lin, C}, title = {Impacts of climate change risk and economic policy uncertainty on carbon prices: Configuration analysis from a complex system perspective.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123622}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123622}, pmid = {39647300}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Despite a vast amount of research examining the antecedent variables of carbon prices, the impact of climate change risk on carbon prices has been rarely explored. This study adopted a complex system perspective and applied NCA and fsQCA models to analyze regional climate physical risk (CPR) and climate transition risk (CTR) from a complex system perspective. The results suggested that the primary factors affecting the Hubei carbon price included coal prices, market regulation, and national carbon market prices, and carbon prices could be higher in response to higher levels of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) combined with other factors. By comparing the changes of independent variables before and after the opening of the national carbon market, it was found that lower CPR and CTR were conducive to higher carbon prices; the former has received early attention but the latter has been neglected. The findings from this study provided theoretical and practical insight to inform government regulation of carbon prices and decision-making for carbon market stakeholders. The government should pay attention to the impacts of climate change risks and EPU on carbon prices because these factors could significantly undermine the incentive and economic effectiveness of the carbon market.}, }
@article {pmid39645595, year = {2024}, author = {Talepour, N and Tahmasebi Birgani, Y and Jaafarzadeh, N and Goudarzi, G}, title = {Advanced Prediction of PM10 Trends Using ANN-NARX Under CMIP6 Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Iranian biomedical journal}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {3}, pmid = {39645595}, issn = {2008-823X}, mesh = {*Particulate Matter/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Neural Networks, Computer ; Iran ; Climate Models ; Forecasting ; Seasons ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: As climate change continues to reshape our environment, accurately forecasting air quality becomes essential for developing effective public health and environmental strategies. This study investigates changes in particulate matter (PM10) concentrations under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).<br><br>METHODS AND MATERIALS: Historical climatic data (1998-2014) were collected to establish baseline conditions, and vital climatic variables-maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, and radiation-were gathered between 2013 and 2022 from the Iran Meteorological Organization. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG 6.0) software was used to perform statistical downscaling, generating high-resolution time series datasets from the historical climatic data. The MIROC6 atmospheric circulation models simulated future climate scenarios using three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the sixth IPCC Assessment Report (AR6): optimistic (SSP1-2.6), intermediate (SSP2-4.5), and pessimistic (SSP3-7.0). Monthly PM10 concentrations were obtained from MODIS satellite images. An Artificial Neural Network Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (ANN-NARX) model was developed using the collected climatic variables as predictors, and this model was used to estimate PM10 concentrations for the period 2023-2042 under each SSP scenario.<br><br>RESULTS: In various SSP scenarios, PM10 levels were assessed between 2023 and 2042. An increase in PM10 was observed across all scenarios, particularly during the hotter months of summer and spring over the next 20 years. The SSP2-4.5 scenario showed minimal change, maintaining levels close to historical data. In contrast, SSP3-7.0 exhibited significant increases in PM10, especially during the warmer months of summer and spring. Sensitivity analysis identified radiation and maximum temperature as critical factors influencing PM10 predictions, with sensitivity plots showing a notable increase in MSE when these factors were removed. The ANN-NARX model demonstrated satisfactory performance across the training, validation, and testing sets, with RMSE values ranging from 0.15 to 0.30, MAE values from 0.10 to 0.35, and MSE values from 0.01 to 0.1, and R values from 0.91 to 0.92.<br><br>CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION: The study concluded that PM10 concentrations in Ahvaz were significantly influenced by radiation and maximum temperature. The anticipated temperature increases under various SSP scenarios suggest a potential decline in future air quality, with expected rises in PM10 levels. These findings underscore the urgent need for effective air quality management and climate adaptation strategies in Ahvaz.}, }
@article {pmid39645544, year = {2024}, author = {Blázquez, S and Papadimitriou, VC and Albaladejo, J and Jiménez, E}, title = {Atmospheric reaction of CH2=CHCH2OCF2CHF2 with OH radicals and Cl atoms, UV and IR absorption cross sections, and global warming potential.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39645544}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {SBPLY/19/180501/000052//Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha/ ; SBPLY/23/180225/000054//Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha/ ; 2022-GRIN-34143//Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha/ ; }, abstract = {In this work, the rate coefficients for OH radical, k1(T), and Cl atom, k2(T), reaction with allyl 1,1,2,2-tetrafluoroethyl ether, CH2=CHCH2OCF2CHF2, were studied as a function of temperature and pressure in a collaborative effort made between UCLM, Spain, and LAPKIN, Greece. OH rate coefficients were determined in UCLM, between 263 and 353 K and 50-600 Torr, using the absolute rate method of pulsed laser photolysis-laser-induced fluorescence technique, while Cl kinetics were studied in temperature (260-363 K) and pressure (34-721 Torr) ranges, using the relative rate method of the thermostated photochemical reactor equipped with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy as the detection technique. In both OH and Cl reactions, a negative temperature dependence of the measured rate coefficients was observed, which is consistent with complex association reactions. The temperature dependence of OH rate coefficients was found to be well represented by the following expression: k1(T) = (2.30 ± 0.35) × 10[-12] exp[(544 ± 46) K/T] cm[3] molecule[-1] s[-1]. In the case of the Cl-initiated reaction, a slight curvature was observed in the Arrhenius plot for k2(T), and the kinetic data were fitted to a modified Arrhenius expression: k2(T) = (4.42 ± 0.32) × 10[-16] T[2] exp[(610 ± 22) K/T] cm[3] molecule[-1] s[-1]. No pressure dependence was observed in either case. These results are consistent with a complex reaction mechanism that is not uncommon in radical association reactions to the unsaturated bond. As part of this work, UV (200-400 nm) and infrared absorption spectra (500-3200 cm[-1]) were also measured to further evaluate CH2=CHCH2OCF2CHF2 atmospheric impact. Atmospheric lifetimes with respect to OH radical and Cl atom reactions were estimated to be 19.8 h and 38 days, respectively, showing that OH radicals dominate atmospheric oxidation. CH2=CHCH2OCF2CHF2 is a very weak absorber in the solar actinic region, while its relatively low radiative efficiency in the atmospheric IR window, 0.0034 W m[-2] ppbv[-1], and the short lifetime led to a very low GWP value relative to CO2, 1.2 × 10[-2] and 3.3 × 10[-3], at time horizons of 20 and 100 years, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid39644633, year = {2024}, author = {Chandrani, S and Drishanu, D and Vaishnavi, G and Gunaseelan, S and Ashokkumar, B and Bharathi, KSU and Chew, KW and Varalakshmi, P}, title = {Role of macroalgal blue carbon ecosystems in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {958}, number = {}, pages = {177751}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177751}, pmid = {39644633}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This review explicitly emphasizes the important yet unnoticed potential of macroalgae, such as seaweeds and kelps, as a powerful nature-based solution for climate change mitigation, with greater focus on the Indian Ocean seaweed diversity and efforts towards their conservation and management. Despite the IPCC's recognition of Blue Carbon ecosystems, seaweed ecosystems remain largely excluded from carbon accounting and policy frameworks. Herein, we specifically focus on the immense capacity of macroalgae globally and in the Indian Ocean coastal communities to sequester carbon, support marine biodiversity, and provide a range of ecosystem services. Through comprehensive analysis of existing literature on the primary productivity, species distribution and carbon sequestration capabilities of seaweeds, we highlight their pivotal role in carbon capture and utilization within a circular economy model. This review explores the ecosystem services provided by both wild and cultivated seaweeds, advocating for innovative applications and responsible management practices to maximize their climate mitigation potential. Our investigation identifies significant knowledge gaps and barriers in the conservation of economically significant, dwindling populations of seaweeds in the Indian Ocean and the integration of seaweed ecosystems into blue carbon policies, including the need for standardized classification, valuation, and long-term conservation strategies. Further, we address the impact of anthropogenic activities on wild seaweed biodiversity and the necessity for reliable carbon removal technologies to support seaweed aquaculture beds. This review urges policy reform, increased research and funding to this critical area. We aim to accentuate the importance of a blue economy in establishing carbon-neutral markets and effective climate change mitigation by improving the classification, finance and governance of seaweed ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid39644427, year = {2024}, author = {Goodwin, S and Olazabal, M and Castro, AJ and Pascual, U}, title = {A relational turn in climate change adaptation: Evidence from urban nature-based solutions.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39644427}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {LCF/BQ/DI20/11780006//'la Caixa' Foundation/ ; MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033///Mar&#xed;a de Maeztu excellence accreditation 2018-2022/ ; IMAGINE adaptation/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; 101039429/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {The emergence of nature-based solutions (NbS) in science, policy, and practice signals a paradigmatic shift in urban climate change adaptation, yet empirical investigations into its impact on adaptation definitions and progress tracking remain scarce. Addressing this gap, we conducted thematic analysis on semi-structured interviews (n = 15) with practitioners responsible for implementing and evaluating urban NbS in different countries. We provide a nuanced understanding of urban adaptation goals within urban NbS according to the insights from these practitioners, extending beyond hazard mitigation and towards cultivating and strengthening relationships between humans and nature. Tracking adaptation progress towards such relational adaptation goals requires acknowledging knowledge pluralism and the diversity of human-nature relations. We propose an alternative definition of adaptation supported by our data that aims to foster a more holistic approach to urban climate adaptation that accounts for the potential benefits of urban NbS across interconnected climate, biodiversity, and social goals.}, }
@article {pmid39642429, year = {2024}, author = {Coscia, TM and Di Maio, F and Zio, E}, title = {A modelling framework to analyze climate change effects on radionuclide aquifer contamination.}, journal = {Journal of contaminant hydrology}, volume = {269}, number = {}, pages = {104470}, doi = {10.1016/j.jconhyd.2024.104470}, pmid = {39642429}, issn = {1873-6009}, abstract = {Non-stationarity of climatic variables (e.g., temperature and precipitation) due to Climate Change (CC) can affect the migration processes of radionuclides released from nuclear activities. In this paper, a framework of analysis is developed to predict the evolution in time of contaminant concentration and fluence under different Climatic Boundary Conditions (CBCs) of precipitation scenarios provided by a climate model integrated with an accurate physical coupled hydraulic-transport model. A case study is worked out with respect to the migration of a radioactive contaminant ([232]Th) at Kirtland Air Force Base (Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA), for which the different CBCs considered are: i) stationary and ii) non-stationary precipitation. The effects of such alternative hypotheses on the physical modelling results are analysed, using a cross-wavelet analysis. It is shown that fluence is strongly affected by precipitation extremes, more than concentration, and it is claimed that a daily scale on the information and data of CBCs is necessary to model, with sufficient accuracy, the migration process and properly assess the impact of future CC on groundwater contamination.}, }
@article {pmid39642076, year = {2024}, author = {Munro, N}, title = {Climate Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases: A Precarious Relationship.}, journal = {AACN advanced critical care}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {325-333}, doi = {10.4037/aacnacc2024290}, pmid = {39642076}, issn = {1559-7776}, mesh = {Humans ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging/transmission/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; United States/epidemiology ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Female ; Animals ; Aged, 80 and over ; Aged ; }, abstract = {Climate change is apparent. Temperatures are rising. Floods are more frequent and devastating. Climate changes can favor the development of emerging infectious diseases. The number of animal reservoirs and vector hosts can increase, further spreading pathogens. Many emerging infectious diseases were not historically considered major threats in US but have become a major concern in US territories and various states. In June 2024, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a Health Alert Network advisory about an increase in local transmission of dengue fever. Preventing the transmission of emerging infectious diseases has become a focus of regulatory agencies. Nurse education at all levels should include infectious diseases and be coordinated with local, state, and regional institutions. Emerging infectious diseases are now formidable challenges to health care.}, }
@article {pmid39642075, year = {2024}, author = {Shelby, LA}, title = {Developing a Green Nursing Practice in a Profession That Contributes to Climate Change: One Nurse's Journey.}, journal = {AACN advanced critical care}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {310-319}, doi = {10.4037/aacnacc2024804}, pmid = {39642075}, issn = {1559-7776}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Nurse's Role ; United States ; Nursing Staff, Hospital/psychology ; Critical Care Nursing/standards ; }, abstract = {The health care industry accounts for 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with hospitals being the largest contributor. Critical care units create 3 times the greenhouse emissions of other hospital patient care units. Health care contributions to environmental harm include medical waste disposal, toxicant exposure, and pollutants. Integrating green practices into hospitals, especially in intensive care units, can seem overwhelming, with barriers including time constraints, lack of leadership and organizational support, and ignorance of green practices. Nursing is a socially responsible discipline committed to improving the health of individuals and communities; values of environmental stewardship and the desire to minimize poor health outcomes caused by climate change do not always align with hospital policies or clinician practices. This article addresses how nurses can confront the complex environmental problems in the workplace, apply sustainability principles to develop a green nursing practice, and collectively influence the future of national and global health.}, }
@article {pmid39642070, year = {2024}, author = {Pate, MFD and Slota, M}, title = {Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability in Acute and Critical Care.}, journal = {AACN advanced critical care}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {308-309}, doi = {10.4037/aacnacc2024154}, pmid = {39642070}, issn = {1559-7776}, }
@article {pmid39642069, year = {2024}, author = {Pate, MFD}, title = {Climate Change: Time for Hospitals to Respond.}, journal = {AACN advanced critical care}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {320-324}, doi = {10.4037/aacnacc2024134}, pmid = {39642069}, issn = {1559-7776}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Disaster Planning ; Hospitals ; United States ; }, abstract = {Alarm bells are sounding internationally as climate change impacts planet Earth and its inhabitants. Health care organizations must consider the role they play in working toward environmental sustainability in terms of mitigation, resilience, leadership, and equity. Institutions need to address the effects of climate change on the physical health and mental well-being of patients and their families as well as employees. Awareness of the complexities of sustainability initiatives and disaster management related to inclement weather and weather-related events is critical for health care organizations to avoid precipitating the illnesses and diseases they endeavor to prevent and heal.}, }
@article {pmid39641952, year = {2024}, author = {Anderer, S}, title = {Climate Change Inaction Poses Record-Breaking Health Risks.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2024.24263}, pmid = {39641952}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid39641917, year = {2024}, author = {Cheng, KJ and Shi, J and Pogorelov, TV and Capponi, S}, title = {Investigating the Bromoform Membrane Interactions Using Atomistic Simulations and Machine Learning: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. B}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.jpcb.4c04930}, pmid = {39641917}, issn = {1520-5207}, abstract = {Methane emissions from livestock contribute to global warming. Seaweeds used as food additive offer a promising emission mitigation strategy because seaweeds are enriched in bromoform─a methanogenesis inhibitor. Therefore, understanding bromoform storage and production in seaweeds and particularly in a cell-like environment is crucial. As a first step toward this aim, we present an atomistic description of bromoform dynamics, diffusion, and aggregation in the presence of lipid membranes. Using all-atom molecular dynamics simulations with customized CHARMM-formatted bromoform force field files, we investigate the interactions of bromoform and lipid bilayer across various concentrations. Bromoform penetrates membranes and at high concentrations forms aggregates outside the membrane without affecting membrane thickness or lipid tail order. Aggregates outside the membrane influence the membrane curvature. Within the membrane, bromoform preferentially localizes in the membrane hydrophobic core and diffuses the slowest along the membrane normal. Employing general local-atomic descriptors and unsupervised machine learning, we demonstrate the similarity of bromoform local structures between the liquid and aggregated forms.}, }
@article {pmid39641333, year = {2024}, author = {Sowunmi, AO and Eze, OI and Osadolor, U and Iseolorunkanmi, A and Adeloye, D}, title = {Leveraging AI and data science to mitigate the respiratory health impacts of climate change in Africa: Organisation, costs, and challenges.}, journal = {Journal of global health}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {03051}, pmid = {39641333}, issn = {2047-2986}, }
@article {pmid39641194, year = {2024}, author = {Logie, CH and MacNeil, A}, title = {Climate change and extreme weather events and linkages with HIV outcomes: recent advances and ways forward.}, journal = {Current opinion in infectious diseases}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39641194}, issn = {1473-6527}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Discuss the recent evidence on climate change and related extreme weather events (EWE) and linkages with HIV prevention and care outcomes.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: We identified 22 studies exploring HIV prevention and care in the context of EWE. HIV prevention studies examined sexual practices that increase HIV exposure (e.g., condomless sex, transactional sex), HIV testing, and HIV recent infections and prevalence. HIV care-related outcomes among people with HIV included clinical outcomes (e.g., viral load), antiretroviral therapy adherence and access, HIV care engagement and retention, and mental and physical wellbeing. Pathways from EWE to HIV prevention and care included: structural impacts (e.g., health infrastructure damage); resource insecurities (e.g., food insecurity-related ART adherence barriers); migration and displacement (e.g., reduced access to HIV services); and intrapersonal and interpersonal impacts (e.g., mental health challenges, reduced social support).<br><br>SUMMARY: Studies recommended multilevel strategies for HIV care in the context of EWE, including at the structural-level (e.g. food security programs), health institution-level (e.g., long-lasting ART), community-level (e.g. collective water management), and individual-level (e.g., coping skills). Climate-informed HIV prevention research is needed. Integration of EWE emergency and disaster preparedness and HIV services offers new opportunities for optimizing HIV prevention and care.}, }
@article {pmid39640687, year = {2024}, author = {Arogundade, S and Hassan, AS and Mduduzi, B}, title = {Is climate change hindering the economic progress of Nigerian economy? Insights from dynamic models.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {20}, pages = {e39288}, pmid = {39640687}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study investigates the link between climate change and economic growth in Nigeria from 1961 to 2022. To provide a robust analysis that facilitates a nuanced examination of this dynamic relationship, this study employs state-of-the-art econometric approaches, including autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), fully modified least squares (FMOLS), novel quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL), and time-varying causality. The empirical results of this study are as follows: (1) the impact of climate change on economic growth is not felt in the short run. However, climate change negatively influences economic growth in Nigeria in the long run, (2) the elasticity of climate change increases across the conditional quantile economic growth, (3) unidirectional causality from climate change to economic growth across different time dimensions. These empirical outcomes advocate for a proactive and adaptive policy framework, emphasising the need for the Nigerian government to adopt climate-smart policies.}, }
@article {pmid39640009, year = {2024}, author = {David, JO}, title = {Decolonizing climate change response: African indigenous knowledge and sustainable development.}, journal = {Frontiers in sociology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1456871}, pmid = {39640009}, issn = {2297-7775}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) poses a critical challenge necessitating effective global climate change mitigation efforts. However, the pervasive influence of scientism in AGW discourse often marginalizes Indigenous perspectives crucial for addressing climate impacts, particularly in Africa where adaptive capacity is limited.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study, rooted in Transformative Learning Theory and Ubuntu philosophy, employs critical qualitative research methods to examine how scientism shapes AGW discourse epistemologically and ethically. It explores the hindrances posed by climate change denialism and ecomodernism due to scientism while advocating the integration of African Indigenous Knowledge Systems (AIKs) into climate response strategies, particularly within the African education landscape.<br><br>METHODS: Drawing on the theoretical frameworks of Transformative Learning and Ubuntu philosophy, and informed by critical qualitative research methodology, this research analyzes the role of scientism in AGW discourse. It investigates its implications for Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) and discusses arguments for the inclusion of AIK in educational and policy frameworks.<br><br>RESULTS: The study reveals that scientism perpetuates epistemological biases that undervalue AIK, thereby impeding comprehensive climate response strategies. Pathways are proposed that promote AIK integration and mainstreaming, thereby decolonizing climate response efforts and enhancing ESD within Africa's educational institutions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Integrating insights from AIK, construed in terms of 'exemplary ethical communities' (EEC), into climate change responses is pivotal for fostering inclusive and effective strategies. This approach not only addresses the ethical imperatives of decolonization but also enhances resilience and sustainability in climate-vulnerable regions.<br><br>SIGNIFICANCE: This study contributes to scholarship by highlighting the urgent need to diversify climate response strategies through the inclusion of AIK. By advocating for the integration of wisdom from EECs, it advances discussions on decoloniality within climate change discourse, emphasizing the importance of Indigenous knowledge in global sustainability efforts.}, }
@article {pmid39639289, year = {2024}, author = {Geffert, K and Voss, S and Rehfuess, E and Rechel, B}, title = {The role of the public health service in the implementation of heat health action plans for climate change adaptation in Germany: A qualitative study.}, journal = {Health research policy and systems}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {161}, pmid = {39639289}, issn = {1478-4505}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Germany ; *Qualitative Research ; *Public Health ; *Health Policy ; Hot Temperature ; Health Plan Implementation ; Heat Stress Disorders/prevention &amp; control ; Federal Government ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In response to climate change-induced increases in heat periods, the WHO recommends the implementation of heat health action plans (HHAPs). In Germany, HHAPs are implemented neither comprehensively nor nationwide. Several recommendations have identified the public health service (PHS) at municipal and federal state levels as a key actor regarding to heat and health. Therefore, this study aimed at assessing the role of the PHS in implementing HHAPs at municipal and federal state levels in Germany.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a policy document analysis to assess the legal basis for the work of the PHS in the 16 federal states in Germany. Furthermore, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 16 experts from within and outside the PHS to explore their perceptions of the PHS in the implementation of HHAPs. The interviews were analysed using reflective thematic analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: The policy document analysis revealed that heat is not mentioned in any of the federal states' regulatory frameworks for the PHS, while tasks related to environment and health are addressed, but tend to remain vague. The interviews confirmed that there is currently no clearly defined role for the PHS in implementing HHAPs in Germany and that the actual role primarily depends on the local setting. Main barriers and facilitators could be assigned to three levels (individual, organizational and political), and two overarching contextual factors (awareness of the need for adaptation and existence of other public health emergencies) influenced the implementation of HHAPs across all levels. At the individual level, motivation, knowledge and competencies, and previous experience were possible barriers or enablers. At the organizational level, administrative structures, financial and human resources, leadership and networks were barriers or facilitators, while at the political level they included legislation and political decisions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The PHS could and should be a relevant actor for implementing measures addressing health and climate change locally, in particular because of its focus on vulnerable populations. However, our findings suggest that the legal basis in the federal states of Germany is insufficient. Tailored approaches are needed to overcome barriers such as rigid, non-agile administrative structures and competing priorities, while taking advantage of facilitators such as awareness of relevant actors.}, }
@article {pmid39637590, year = {2024}, author = {Couto, S and Rodrigues, S and Patrão, R and Vieira, M and Antunes, SC and Pinheiro, C}, title = {Impact of cigarette butts elutriates on Artemia franciscana in a climate change context.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {211}, number = {}, pages = {117345}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117345}, pmid = {39637590}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {Cigarette butts (CBs) are major worldwide pollutants, posing environmental challenges, especially in the current climate crisis. Hence, this study examined the biological responses of Artemia franciscana to smoked (SCBs) and non-smoked (nSCBs) cigarette butt elutriates with increased temperatures. Acute (0.188-4.0 CBs/L, 48 h) and sub-chronic (0.03125-0.5 CBs/L, 7 d) assays were performed, exposing nauplii to two temperatures (25.0 ± 1.0 °C, guideline; and 30.0 ± 1.0 °C, according to IUCN (2017) and European Environment Agency (2023) projections). High acute toxicity was observed: LC50 = 3.98 SCBs/L and an LC50 = 0.94 nSCBs/L at 25.0 °C, with increased toxicity for SCBs (LC50 = 1.26 SCBs/L) at 30.0 °C. The sub-chronic exposure showed that the temperature increase affected the organisms' biological responses to CBs by disturbing the activity of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and the antioxidant enzymes catalase (CAT) and glutathione S-transferases (GSTs), inducing oxidative damage (thiobarbituric acid reactive substances - TBARS) and influencing energy metabolism (lactate dehydrogenase - LDH). A. franciscana's biological responses emphasize the importance of mitigating CBs pollution by understanding these ecotoxicological implications in a warming world.}, }
@article {pmid39637542, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, X and Zhang, S and Fang, L and Zhang, C and Li, X}, title = {The impacts of socioeconomic development and climate change on long-term nutrient dynamics: A case study in Poyang Lake.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {957}, number = {}, pages = {177843}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177843}, pmid = {39637542}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The anthropogenic activities associated with rapid socioeconomic development affect global climate change and the water quality of lake ecosystems. However, the impacts of socioeconomic and climate changes on lake nutrient dynamics require additional study. In this study, we used a long-term dataset (1987-2021) of Poyang Lake to identify the nutrient dynamics and assess the impacts of social and climatic factors on nutrient concentrations. The filtering trajectory method (FTM) suggested that in Poyang Lake, nutrients first increased and then decreased, with TP reaching its highest value of 157 μg/L in 2015. The study employs a combination of structural equation modeling (SEM) and FTM to identify the complex interactions between socio-economic and climatic factors affecting nutrient concentrations in Poyang Lake. The SEM results revealed that socioeconomic factors rather than climate change determined the long-term changes in TN and TP. Additionally, FTM results verified that GDP, urbanization (Ur) and P-fertilizer (Pfer) were the key drivers of TN; Ur, population (P), and sewerage treatment rate (STR) were the primary factors of TP. Through generalized additive models (GAMs), we observed that GDP accounted for 86 % of the temporal variability in TN and 45.7 % of that in TP, exhibiting inverted U-shaped relationships with both TN and TP. Air temperature (AT), a climatic factor accounted for only 44.6 % and 14.8 % of the variation in TN and TP, respectively. In addition, Pfer explained 66.0 % of the variation in TN, and STR explained 50.4 % of the variation in TP with a peak TP at the STR threshold of approximately 80 %. Our findings highlight the importance of Pfer and STR as critical indicators for watershed nutrient management. The identification of key temporal drivers and nutrient trajectories provides a scientific basis for developing management strategies. The results highlight coordinated control strategies for water pollution and carbon reduction as essential measures for mitigating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39637503, year = {2024}, author = {Dyderski, MK and Paź-Dyderska, S and Jagodziński, AM and Puchałka, R}, title = {Shifts in native tree species distributions in Europe under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123504}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123504}, pmid = {39637503}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Key European tree species are expected to contract their ranges under changing climate, thus there is a need to assess range shifts for other native tree species that could fill their forest niche. Recent studies have focused on economically important species, revealing a wide range of shifts in their distribution worldwide and highlighting several pathways for potential future changes. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat levels by the years 2041-60 and 2061-80, for 20 European temperate forest tree species under four climate change scenarios. We compared ten standard stock tree species with ten alternative stock species, that are less frequent and less preferred by managers. We combined distribution data from several sources for each tree species and developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and seven bioclimatic variables. We applied these models to projections of future climate from four global circulation models, under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and for near and middle terms: 2041-60 and 2061-80. We also assessed the relationships between predicted range contraction and their functional traits. Analysis of MaxEnt models divided the studied tree species into three groups: non-threatened (Sorbus torminalis, Ulmus minor, Tilia platyphyllos, Acer pseudoplatanus, Prunus avium, and Carpinus betulus), partially threatened (U. laevis, Betula pendula, Quercus robur, Q. petraea, A. platanoides, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, T. cordata, Alnus glutinosa, and U. glabra), and the most threatened (Abies alba, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris). For the last group, almost half of the range contraction will occur earlier (2041-2060) compared to our previous predictions (2061-2080). The proportion of range contraction decreased with increasing specific leaf area, leaf area, leaf nitrogen content, seed mass, and specific stem density while it increased with increasing height. Our study provides novel predictions of shifts in climatic optima under the most recent climate change scenarios, which would be useful for evidence-based conservation and management of European forests. The near-term predicted threats to the main standard stock tree species call for intensified preparation for incoming changes. We recommend splitting the silvicultural risks over a wider range of tree species, also including alternative stock species.}, }
@article {pmid39636977, year = {2024}, author = {Urban, MC}, title = {Climate change extinctions.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {386}, number = {6726}, pages = {1123-1128}, doi = {10.1126/science.adp4461}, pmid = {39636977}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Amphibians ; Australia ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Extinction, Biological ; South America ; *Fresh Water ; Hot Temperature ; New Zealand ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes to biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections to produce a quantitative global assessment of climate change extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third of species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems; and species inhabiting South America, Australia, and New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, climate change has contributed to an increasing proportion of observed global extinctions since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which species to protect first will be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed.}, }
@article {pmid39636468, year = {2024}, author = {Shamim, T and Bhat, MS and Alam, A and Ahsan, S and Sheikh, HA}, title = {Evaluation of drought events using multiple drought indices under climate change in the Upper Indus Basin.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {1}, pages = {27}, pmid = {39636468}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Droughts ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; India ; Temperature ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Spatiotemporal variations in drought events were examined through multiple drought indices in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) during the 1980-2020 period using observed climate data of precipitation, temperature (T max., T min., and T mean), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 16 meteorological stations. Software like ClimPACT2 (to quality check data and generate SPI, SPEI, and CDD drought indices), DrinC (to generate AI, eRDI and PD drought indices), CMhyd (to bias correct NASA POWER gridded data), and ArcGIS (to map extreme drought years) were used in this study. It was revealed that precipitation decreased at 30 mm/decade and maximum and minimum temperatures increased at 0.132 °C/decade and 0.23 °C/decade, aridity increased by decreasing aridity index at 0.15/decade, and number of consecutive dry days increased at 2 days/decade. All drought indices reflected decreasing trends, indicating a warming and drying climatic regime. The eRDI drought index analysis revealed that droughts have occurred for 12.6 years in the last four decades, and mild droughts (15%) are more common, followed by moderate droughts (9.4%), severe droughts (4.7%), and extreme droughts (2.4%). The study provides comparisons of drought patterns under changing climate in three distinct climatic and physical regions of UIB, i.e., Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh, and reveals that the UIB is not free from droughts.}, }
@article {pmid39636217, year = {2024}, author = {Mills, J and Romagnolo, A and Battaglia, G and Eyal, S and Gulcebi, MI and Macrohon, B and Sisodiya, SM and Vezzani, A and , }, title = {Exploring the impact of climate change on epilepsy: Insights from the 15th European Epilepsy Congress.}, journal = {Epilepsia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/epi.18208}, pmid = {39636217}, issn = {1528-1167}, support = {//Epilepsy Society/ ; }, }
@article {pmid39635119, year = {2024}, author = {Havea, PH and Su, B and Liu, C and Kundzewicz, ZW and Wang, Y and Wang, G and Jing, C and Jiang, H and Yang, F and Mata'afa, FN and Jiang, T}, title = {Wind and solar energy in Small Island Developing States for mitigating global climate change.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {10}, pages = {111062}, pmid = {39635119}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Despite contributing less than 1% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have the potential to drive global mitigation actions by advocating for ambitious emission reduction targets, promoting renewable energy solutions, and advancing sustainable development practices. The adoption of onshore-offshore wind and solar energy in 39 SIDS, which are currently experiencing the adverse effects of climate change, presents a significant opportunity. By harnessing renewable energy sources, these countries can effectively mitigate GHG emissions, enhance energy security, and build resilience. This approach aligns with the renewable energy roadmap outlined at the 28[th] Conference of Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), facilitating a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. However, realizing such prospects requires collaboration among policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers to address multiple technical, economic, and environmental issues. Through this joint effort, the untapped potential of wind and solar energy can be fully harnessed, offering a pragmatic solution to actively mitigate climate change and the issues faced in these regions.}, }
@article {pmid39634440, year = {2024}, author = {Turan Gökçe, D and Arı, D and Ata, N and Gökcan, H and İdilman, R and Ülgü, MM and Harputluoglu, M and Akarsu, M and Karasu, Z and Ayvalı, MO and Birinci, &#x15e; and Akdoğan Kayhan, M}, title = {Mushroom Intoxication in Türkiye: A Nationwide Cohort Study Based on Demographic Trends, Seasonal Variations, and the Impact of Climate Change on Incidence.}, journal = {The Turkish journal of gastroenterology : the official journal of Turkish Society of Gastroenterology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.5152/tjg.2024.24368}, pmid = {39634440}, issn = {2148-5607}, abstract = {BACKGROUND/AIMS: Mushroom intoxication poses a considerable public health risk due to its potential for severe toxicity and fatality. This study aims to investigate demographic trends, diagnostic locations, and mortality rates of patients with mushroom intoxication.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study utilized data from the National Electronic Database of the Turkish Ministry of Health. The study focused on patients without chronic liver disease or prior liver transplantation presenting with mushroom intoxication between 2018 and 2023. Demographic information, diagnostic locations, and mortality rates were analyzed, considering a six-year period to ensure even seasonal distribution.<br><br>RESULTS: Among 30459 individuals admitted with mushroom intoxication, 44.75% were male, with a mean age of 45.84 years. The Black Sea, Marmara, and Central Anatolia regions had the highest number of cases, with specific cities like Tokat, Bolu, Yozgat, and Kastamonu having the highest rates per 100,000 population in 2022. Mushroom intoxication predominantly occurred in May, June, October, and November. Hospitalization occurred in 8.9% of cases, with a 6.6% mortality rate within 90 days and 1.3% progressing to liver transplantation. Notably, mushroom intoxication cases increased by 130% in the first half of 2023, particularly in May and June, correlating with increased rainfall.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Mushroom intoxication is a serious public health issue, with morbidity and mortality influenced by climate factors. The study highlights a significant increase in cases in the first half of 2023, potentially linked to heightened rainfall and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39633076, year = {2024}, author = {Challa, V and Renganathan, M}, title = {Assessment of climate change impact on meteorological variables of Indravati River Basin using SDSM and CMIP6 models.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {197}, number = {1}, pages = {22}, pmid = {39633076}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Rivers/chemistry ; India ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Climate Models ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change, one of the most pressing issues of the twenty-first century, threatens the long-term stability and short-term variability of water resources. Variations in precipitation and temperature will influence runoff and water availability, creating significant challenges as demand for potable water increases. This study addresses a critical literature gap by employing the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs for the Indravati River Basin, India. Maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation (PCP) were statistically downscaled, improving the spatial resolution of coarse GCM data. The model established strong predictor-predictand relationships, offering enhanced local-scale climate projections for the basin. This work provides critical insights into regional climate change impacts in a previously underexplored area. The study projected the meteorological variables (Tmax, Tmin, and PCP) for Chindnar, Jagdalpur, and Pathagudem stations using four GCMs, namely CanESM5, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, EC-Earth3, and NorESM2-LM for the baseline period (1990-2014). The Correlation Coefficient-values (R-values) range from 0.75 to 0.91 for maximum temperature, 0.85 to 0.96 for minimum temperature, and 0.71 to 0.83 for precipitation were achieved using SDSM. The best-performed MPI-ESM1-2-HR model was used to project maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for 2024-2054 (2040s) and 2055-2085 (2070s) under SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios using SDSM. The downscaled results revealed significant shifts in meteorological patterns, highlighting the basin's sensitivity to different socio-economic pathways and future climate conditions. The percentage monthly, seasonal, and annual variations of Tmax, Tmin, and PCP were analysed based on each scenario and time period to suggest remedial measures for future floods and droughts.}, }
@article {pmid39633005, year = {2024}, author = {Agulles, M and Marbà, N and Duarte, CM and Jordà, G}, title = {Mediterranean seagrasses provide essential coastal protection under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {30269}, pmid = {39633005}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Seagrasses are vital in coastal areas, offering crucial ecosystem services and playing a relevant role in coastal protection. The decrease in the density of Mediterranean seagrasses over recent decades, due to warming and anthropogenic stressors, may imply a serious environmental threat. Here we quantify the role of coastal impact reduction induced by seagrass presence under present and future climate. We focus in the Balearic Islands, a representative and well monitored region in the Mediterranean. Our results quantify how important the presence of seagrasses is for coastal protection. The complete loss of seagrasses would lead to an extreme water level (eTWL) increase comparable to the projected sea level rise (SLR) at the end of the century under the high end scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. Under that scenario, the eTWL could increase up to ~ 1.4 m, with 54% of that increase attributed to seagrass loss. These findings underscore the importance of seagrass conservation for coastal protection.}, }
@article {pmid39632362, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, HY and Wu, CF and Tsai, KH}, title = {Projections of Climate Change Impact on Acute Heat Illnesses in Taiwan: Case-Crossover Study.}, journal = {JMIR public health and surveillance}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e57948}, pmid = {39632362}, issn = {2369-2960}, mesh = {Taiwan/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Cross-Over Studies ; Aged ; Adolescent ; Child, Preschool ; Child ; Infant ; Forecasting ; Young Adult ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Acute Disease/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: With global warming, the number of days with extreme heat is expected to increase and may cause more acute heat illnesses. While decreasing emissions may mitigate the climate impacts, its effectiveness in reducing acute heat illnesses remains uncertain. Taiwan has established a real-time epidemic surveillance and early warning system to monitor acute heat illnesses since January 1, 2011. Predicting the number of acute heat illnesses requires forecasting temperature changes that are influenced by adaptation policies.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the changes in the number of acute heat illnesses under different adaptation policies.<br><br>METHODS: We obtained the numbers of acute heat illnesses in Taiwan from January 2011 to July 2023 using emergency department visit data from the real-time epidemic surveillance and early warning system. We used segmented linear regression to identify the join point as a nonoptimal temperature threshold. We projected the temperature distribution and excess acute heat illnesses through the end of the century when Taiwan adopts the "Sustainability (shared socioeconomic pathways 1-2.6 [SSP1-2.6])," "Middle of the road (SSP2-4.5)," "Regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0)," and "Fossil-fueled development (SSP5-8.5)" scenarios. Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to analyze the attributable number (AN) and attributable fraction (AF) of acute heat illnesses caused by nonoptimal temperature.<br><br>RESULTS: We enrolled a total of 28,661 patients with a mean age of 44.5 (SD 15.3) years up to July 2023, of whom 21,619 (75.4%) were male patients. The nonoptimal temperature was 27 &#xb0;C. The relative risk of acute heat illnesses with a 1-degree increase in mean temperature was 1.71 (95% CI 1.63-1.79). In the SSP5-8.5 worst-case scenario, the mean temperature was projected to rise by +5.8 &#xb0;C (SD 0.26), with the AN and AF of acute heat illnesses above nonoptimal temperature being 19,021 (95% CI 2249-35,792) and 89.9% (95% CI 89.3%-90.5%) by 2090-2099. However, if Taiwan adopts the Sustainability SSP1-2.6 scenario, the AN and AF of acute heat illnesses due to nonoptimal temperature will be reduced to 12,468 (95% CI 3233-21,704) and 62.1% (95% CI 61.2-63.1).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Adopting sustainable development policies can help mitigate the risk of acute heat illnesses caused by global warming.}, }
@article {pmid39631335, year = {2024}, author = {Patra, SR and Chu, HJ and Aman, MA}, title = {Utilizing deep learning to investigate the impacts of climate change on groundwater dynamics and pumping variability.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {957}, number = {}, pages = {177784}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177784}, pmid = {39631335}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change occasionally leads to unprecedented groundwater level decline. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on groundwater level and pumping electricity consumption concurrently over an agricultural region in Central Taiwan. A hybrid deep learning model i.e., CNN-LSTM was employed to predict future groundwater level and pumping electricity using monthly precipitation and average temperature as exogenous inputs from 2007 to 2021. We adopted future projections for these climate inputs from the latest CMIP6 climate models spanning 15 years (2022-36) for shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). Results revealed that the groundwater level fluctuations in the region are indirectly influenced by climate-induced pumping, as evidenced by exacerbated energy consumption for groundwater extraction during periods of high temperatures and reduced precipitation. Future projections imply that pumping electricity is expected to rise by 2.5-5 % while groundwater level may decline by more than 1 m due to a reduction in average precipitation of about 50-150 mm and a rise in temperature of about 0.7-1.3 °C, respectively over the next 15 years (2022-36). Most notable impacts are witnessed for irrigation-intensive regions such as mid and distal fans. This study necessitates the need to collect and involve pumping along with climate information for a more pragmatic assessment of future groundwater level that may indirectly threaten the food and water security in the region through proficient management of groundwater resources.}, }
@article {pmid39631333, year = {2024}, author = {Munz, L and Mosimann, M and Kauzlaric, M and Martius, O and Zischg, AP}, title = {Storylines of extreme precipitation events and flood impacts in alpine and pre-alpine environments under various global warming levels.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {957}, number = {}, pages = {177791}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177791}, pmid = {39631333}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Exploring the impacts of extreme weather events has gained increased attention in recent years after repeated record-breaking events, such as unprecedented river flood events in central Europe in summer 2021. After the flood event, risk management institutions, such as for example, fire brigades, civil protection units, or natural hazard experts asked if it was possible to predict the impacts of such an unprecedented event ex-ante and if similar events could occur elsewhere or if climatic changes can even worsen extreme flood events. Here, we present an approach to explore storylines of physically plausible extreme river flood events in a warming climate. The simulated flood events are based on extreme precipitation events selected from re-forecast archives. River discharge, flood processes, and their impacts on people and infrastructure are simulated for nine storylines under five global warming levels for the alpine and pre-alpine headwater catchments of the main rivers in northern Switzerland. The precipitation intensity was increased linearly with global warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. The coupled hydrological-hydraulic simulations show that the increase in peak discharge is higher than the increase in precipitation. The flood impacts increase non-linearly with higher global warming levels. The results show that record-breaking, high-impact river floods are possible under the current atmospheric conditions, and climate change substantially aggravates flood impacts. The simulations show a broad range of potential outcomes of flood impact storylines depending on the simulated scenario and local conditions. This leads to the conclusion that storylines of extreme flood events are a valuable tool to explore, describe, and communicate extreme events. Still, the inherent challenge is the communication of the representativeness of a particular storyline and, hence, the practical consequences that should or should not be derived. We, therefore, suggest considering storylines of events with a range of magnitudes and different spatiotemporal precipitation patterns to comprehend the possible range of outcomes and select appropriate storylines out of the set for risk communication.}, }
@article {pmid39627068, year = {2024}, author = {Lu, N and Qin, J}, title = {Double-edged impact of climate change on global solar power.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2024.11.030}, pmid = {39627068}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid39626388, year = {2024}, author = {Han, Q and Zhang, P and Keeffe, G and Zhang, S}, title = {Evaluating and improving the connectivity of China's protected area networks for facilitating species range shifts under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123535}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123535}, pmid = {39626388}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Contemporary climate change is causing spatial redistributions of many species, potentially undermining the effectiveness of existing protected areas (PAs). This raises concerns about whether current PAs are connected enough to capture climate-induced range shifts and how to expand PAs to support this ecological process. Hence, we conducted a national-scale assessment of climate connectivity for the terrestrial PAs across mainland China. We found that most PAs are structurally connected to cool ones through low human impact (LHI) areas along temperature gradients. The connected PA networks could enable species to migrate and avoid an average climate warming of 2.9 °C under moderate emission scenario. Nevertheless, less than half (46.2%) of the PAs have achieved successful climate connectivity. To facilitate climate-induced range shifts, we identified priority areas for conservation based on their importance in supporting connections between PAs. Our study provides spatially explicit assessments of the connectivity of PA networks for range shifts and emphasizes the necessity to consider climate connectivity in the planning of PAs at regional scales.}, }
@article {pmid39626387, year = {2024}, author = {Du, B and Wang, Y and Fang, Z and Liu, G and Tian, Z}, title = {Spatiotemporal modeling and projection framework of rainfall-induced landslide risk under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123474}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123474}, pmid = {39626387}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Global warming is expected to exacerbate extreme rainfall events, potentially increasing the risk of landslides. While landslides have been extensively studied, much of the focus has been on developing static frameworks for landslide susceptibility, with relatively little exploration of spatiotemporal modeling. Furthermore, previous studies have often overlooked the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change and dynamic socio-economic factors on landslide susceptibility and risk. This has resulted in a lack of understanding of how landslide risk will evolve in the future. Consequently, this study proposes a modeling approach to simulate the dynamics of landslide susceptibility and exposure population over the next 80 years. The approach involves a series of novel modeling experiments using rainfall-induced landslide data collected over the past decade in Jiangxi Province, using a GAMs that considers the effects of spatial relationships and spatio-temporal cross-validation, with an AUC of 0.885 and an error rate of 15.32%, and combining with the CMIP6 precipitation data to the direct effect of climate change on landslide susceptibility. In addition, a dynamic risk prediction model combining static and dynamic populations was developed to provide a more comprehensive understanding of future landslide impacts. This research framework serves as a scientific foundation and valuable reference for comprehending the effects of climate change on landslide hazards and their management in urban planning and risk mitigation. It aims to inform the development of more effective strategies to mitigate potential losses from future landslide risks.}, }
@article {pmid39624954, year = {2024}, author = {Li, Y and Wang, J and Shen, C and Zhou, G and Delgado-Baquerizo, M and Ge, Y}, title = {Microbial Diversity Losses Constrain the Capacity of Soils to Mitigate Climate Change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {12}, pages = {e17601}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17601}, pmid = {39624954}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {42177274//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; XDA0440203//Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; GZC20232889//Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF/ ; 2019QZKK0306//Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program/ ; 2019QZKK0308//Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program/ ; SKLURE2022-1-3//State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology/ ; }, mesh = {*Soil Microbiology ; *Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; *Temperature ; Microbiota ; Soil/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; Bacteria/metabolism/classification ; }, abstract = {Soil microbes may adapt to climate warming, potentially reducing the warming-induced increase in microbial carbon emissions such as carbon dioxide, and thereby helping to mitigate climate change. Yet, soil microbes are subjected to various global change stresses (e.g., warming, drought, flooding, and land-use changes), altering their biodiversity, which challenges microbial adaptation to climate change. Here, we created microbial diversity gradients in microcosms at two different temperatures using soils from a 2000-km field survey. We found that reduced microbial diversity weakens the thermal adaptation of soil microbial respiration and can further enhance the microbial respiratory temperature sensitivity over time. Our analyses further revealed that the negative impact of microbial diversity losses is linked to the decline of keystone microbial taxa, which can adapt to temperature changes and are crucial for the community's ability to compensate for the temperature-driven effects on soil respiration in the long term. Taken together, our study provides new insights into the key role of microbial diversity in driving the thermal response of soil heterotrophic respiration, suggesting that any global change-driven shifts in microbial diversity can have critical consequences for the future of carbon stocks.}, }
@article {pmid39623422, year = {2024}, author = {Aggrey, S and Varela, E and Batumike, R and Cuni-Sanchez, A}, title = {Climate change perceptions and adaptation by Sebei pastoralists in Mount Elgon, Uganda: a qualitative survey.}, journal = {Journal of ethnobiology and ethnomedicine}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {102}, pmid = {39623422}, issn = {1746-4269}, mesh = {Uganda ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Animals ; Animal Husbandry ; Aged ; Qualitative Research ; Focus Groups ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Perception ; Cattle ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Pastoralists' sedentarisation and agriculturalisation might increase their vulnerability to climate change impacts, but few studies have investigated if this is the case in mountain areas. In Uganda, little is known about how Sebei pastoralists have perceived and adapted to such changes. This study sought to establish perspectives of Sebei pastoralists on climate change in terms of its occurrence and impacts as well as access to livelihood assets and or opportunities to withstand such challenges.<br><br>METHOD: This study was conducted in Mount Elgon areas of Uganda. A cross-sectional study design was employed using qualitative approaches. Data were collected using focus-group discussions with men and women village elders to assess their perceptions regarding climatic changes, impacts and adaption strategies used. Data were analysed using thematic and content analysis approaches. All analyses were done using NVivo version 14.<br><br>RESULTS: Respondents reported changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall, fog and temperatures, with negative impacts on fodder availability, milk production and pests and diseases. Study participants mentioned using several adaptation strategies with regard to animal rearing, crop farming and livelihood diversification. Among others, participants reduced herd size, migrated longer distances, stored wild grass, used crop residues as feed and increased 'self-medication' of their cattle.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Access to funds, markets and technical advice were the main barriers to adaptation identified. Institutional support-now only focused on improved breeds-should consider the multiple strategies used by pastoralists, and the constraints they highlighted, including the need for mutual learning space.}, }
@article {pmid39621680, year = {2024}, author = {Yuh, YG and N'Goran, KP and Kross, A and Heurich, M and Matthews, HD and Turner, SE}, title = {Monitoring forest cover and land use change in the Congo Basin under IPCC climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {e0311816}, pmid = {39621680}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Congo ; Algorithms ; }, abstract = {The Congo Basin tropical forests are home to many endemic and endangered species, and a global hotspot for forest fragmentation and loss. Yet, little has been done to document the region's rapid deforestation, assess its effects and consequences, or project future forest cover loss to aid in effective planning. Here we applied the Random Forest (RF) supervised classification algorithm in Google Earth Engine (GEE) to map and quantify decadal changes in forest cover and land use (LCLU) in the Congo Basin between 1990 and 2020. We cross-validated our LCLU maps with existing global land cover products, and projected our validated results to 2050 under three climate change scenarios, using the Multiperceptron Artificial Neural Network and Markov chain algorithms of the Idrissi Land Change modeller from TerrSet. We found that, over 5.2% (215,938 km2), 1.2% (50,046 km2), and a 2.1% (86,658 km2) of dense forest cover were lost in the Congo Basin between 1990-2000, 2000-2010, and 2010-2020, totaling approximately 8.5% (352,642 km2) loss estimated between 1990-2020. For the period 2020-2050, we estimated a projected 3.7-4.0% (174,860-204,161 km2) loss in dense forest cover under all three climate change scenarios (i.e., 174,860 km2 loss projected for SSP1-2.6, 199,608 km2 for SSP2-4.5, and 204,161 km2 for SSP5-8.5), suggesting that approximately 12.3-12.6% (527,502 km2-556,803 km2) of dense forest cover could be lost over a 60-year period (1990-2050). Our study represents a novel application of spatial modeling tools and Machine Learning algorithms for assessing long-term deforestation and forest degradation within the Congo Basin, under human population growth and IPCC climate change scenarios. We provide spatial and quantitative results required for supporting long-term deforestation and forest degradation monitoring within Congo Basin countries, especially under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) REDD+ (Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) program.}, }
@article {pmid39621618, year = {2024}, author = {Ureta, C and Ramírez-Barrón, M and Ruán-Soto, F and Kolb, M and Martínez-Cruz, AL and Gasparello, G and Sánchez-Cordero, V}, title = {Impact of climate change on the distribution of insectivorous bats: Implications for small-scale farming in southern Mexico.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {e0310623}, pmid = {39621618}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Chiroptera/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Mexico ; *Agriculture ; *Ecosystem ; Pest Control ; }, abstract = {Bats provide important ecosystem services for agriculture, such as pest control, a function that is particularly relevant for small-scale farmers. However, climate change is causing a decrease in bat populations. To assess the potential impacts of climate change on insectivorous bats and the implications on small-scale farming of indigenous communities in the Chiapas Highlands in southern Mexico we developed a three-step protocol: (1) projecting distribution shifts of insectivorous bats under climate change scenarios using non-dispersal and limited-full dispersal assumptions, (2) using official information to estimate the average economic value of conducting chemical pest control in crops at a state level, (3) surveying small-scale farmers to estimate the local economic value of pest control and determine how bats are perceived by small-scale farmers. Our models project shifts in bat species due to climate change. Given that new suitable climatic areas are also projected, if we assume a limited-full dispersal scenario, bats might not be as at risk by climate change, but shifting their distribution to more suitable habitats will probably affect the dynamic of the ecosystem service they provide. The official estimated value of chemical pest control is $15.15 USD/ha, while the estimated cost resulting from a hybrid survey with small-scale farmers was $47.53 USD/ha. The difference in cost could be related to an overuse of insecticides for pest control or an increase in price due to reduced accessibility. Sixty percent of surveyed farmers perceived a decline in bat populations, 68% were unaware of the benefits that bats provide to their crops, 51% believe that bats are mainly hematophagous, and 10% recognize that people harm or kill bats. A new approach including communicating small-scale farmers in their native languages the benefits that insectivorous bats provide along with a pest management strategy for the efficient use of insecticides needs to be implemented.}, }
@article {pmid39621546, year = {2024}, author = {Mendes, SB and Nogales, M and Vargas, P and Olesen, JM and Marrero, P and Romero, J and Rumeu, B and González-Castro, A and Heleno, R}, title = {Climb forest, climb: diverse disperser communities are key to assist plants tracking climate change on altitudinal gradients.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.20300}, pmid = {39621546}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {CEECINST/00152/2018/CP1570/CT0014//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; LA/P/0092/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; UIDB/04004/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; SFRH/BD/144414/2019//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; PID2022-137906NB-I00//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is forcing species to shift their distribution ranges. Animal seed dispersers might be particularly important in assisting plants tracking suitable climates to higher elevations. However, this role is still poorly understood due to a lack of comprehensive multi-guild datasets along elevational gradients. We compiled seed dispersal networks for the five altitudinal vegetation belts of the Tenerife Island (0-3718 m above sea level) to explore how plant and animal species might facilitate the mutual colonisation of uphill habitats under climate change. The overall network comprised 283 distinct interactions between 73 plant and 27 animal species, with seed dispersers offering viable pathways for plants to colonise upper vegetation belts. A pivotal role is played by a lizard as island-level hub, while four birds and one introduced mammal (rabbit) are also important connectors between belts. Eleven plant species were empirically found to be actively dispersed to elevations beyond their current known range, with observed vertical dispersal distances largely surpassing those required to escape climate change. Furthermore, over half of the plants arriving at higher elevations were exotic. Functionally diverse disperser communities are crucial for enabling plants tracking climate change on mountains, but exotic plants might particularly benefit from this upward lift.}, }
@article {pmid39621246, year = {2025}, author = {Alkan, Z and Karataş, B and Sepil, A}, title = {Evaluation of global warming effects on juvenile rainbow trout: focus on immunohistochemistry and osmoregulation.}, journal = {Fish physiology and biochemistry}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {1-13}, pmid = {39621246}, issn = {1573-5168}, support = {# FDK-10854//Van Yuzuncu Y&#x131;l University, Scientific Research Projects Department/ ; # FDK-10854//Van Yuzuncu Y&#x131;l University, Scientific Research Projects Department/ ; # FDK-10854//Van Yuzuncu Y&#x131;l University, Scientific Research Projects Department/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Oncorhynchus mykiss/physiology/metabolism ; *Global Warming ; *Osmoregulation ; *Gills/metabolism ; Immunohistochemistry ; Salinity ; Osmolar Concentration ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The negative effects of global warming also directly affect aquatic populations. Consequences such as evaporation due to chronic temperature increase, increase in salinity, and increase in stock density per unit volume are potential stress factors. While creating the trial design, an attempt was made to simulate the effects of global warming, especially on species living in salty and brackish water biotopes. In this study, changes in the gills of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) acclimated to 0, 20, and 38 ‰ of saline in the laboratory were examined histologically and immunohistochemically and blood serum osmolarity. In addition, the water temperature was changed, and experiments were carried out at 16, 19, and 22 °C for each salinity group in parallel with the increase in salinity. However, to simulate the decrease in water volume and intensive stocking due to the potential impact of climate change, the study was carried out using 15 fishes in low-volume aquariums (45 L). Tap water that had been kept for at least 3 days was used in the aquariums. To protect the water quality, independent aquariums with sponge filters were used, and since the aim was to keep dissolved oxygen low, no ventilation system other than the sponge filter was used. In order to minimize the deterioration in water quality during the trial, a 15% water change was performed by performing a bottom flush every 4 days and water of the same temperature and salinity was added as much as the reduced volume. In addition, since increasing stock density due to temperature increase and water decrease will cause the amount of dissolved oxygen to decrease, pure oxygen was not entered into any tank throughout the experiment, and the concentration was requested to be at a low level (7 ± 0.13 mg/L) in all groups. The trials were terminated at the end of the 71st day. Increased serum osmolarity values were observed due to the increase in salinity, and the highest serum osmolarity value was measured at 644 mOsm/kg in the 38 ‰ salinity group. Differences between the groups were found to be statistically significant (p < 0.05). It was observed that the number of cells containing Na[+]/K[+]-ATPase increased depending on salinity. Also, the number of chloride cells reached the maximum level in the 38 ‰ salinity group. Due to increasing salt levels, an increase in mucus cells, limited onset hyperplasia, aneurysm, lamellar separation, and necrosis were observed in the gill tissue.}, }
@article {pmid39620702, year = {2024}, author = {Joshi, M and Joshi, A and Bartter, T}, title = {The impact of climate change on respiratory health: current understanding and knowledge gaps.}, journal = {Current opinion in pulmonary medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/MCP.0000000000001145}, pmid = {39620702}, issn = {1531-6971}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To present an overview of the impact of climate change upon human respiratory health.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change is directly impacting air quality. Particulate matter clearly increases mortality rates. Ozone, a longstanding suspect in climate-related injury, turns out not to have the major impact that had been projected at current levels of exposure. The key factors in global warming have been clearly identified, but while these factors collectively cause deleterious changes, a close look at the literature shows that it is unclear to what extent each factor individually is a driver of a specific process. This article summarizes some of those studies.<br><br>SUMMARY: A better understanding of which components of climate change most impact human health is needed in order to re-define environmental standards. PM2.5 needs to be broken down by chemical composition to study the differential impacts of different sources of PM2.5. The detection and study of climate-related changes in respiratory infectious diseases is in a state of relative infancy.}, }
@article {pmid39620095, year = {2024}, author = {Alberto, RP and Teano, JA and Paz-Alberto, AM and Tangonan, MAB and Villamar, HJE and Clement, S and Montagnes, DJS and Morse, AP}, title = {Impacts of climate change on mangrove subsistence fisheries: a global review.}, journal = {Marine life science &amp; technology}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {610-630}, pmid = {39620095}, issn = {2662-1746}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change will impact coastal ecosystems, threatening subsistence fisheries including those in mangrove forests. Despite their global contributions and roles in nutrition and cultural identity, mangrove subsistence fisheries are poorly studied. Here, we offer a foundation for improving the management of mangrove subsistence fisheries to deal with the impending effects of climate change. This multidisciplinary review-drawing on organismal biology, ecology, fisheries, and social science-focuses on the climate impacts relevant to mangrove ecosystems: heat waves, low-category, and high-category typhoons. First, we provide an overview of the mangroves, their harvestable stocks (fish, crustaceans, molluscs), and the fishers, offering an understanding of how they may be affected by relevant environmental variables; i.e., shifts in temperature, salinity, oxygen, flooding, and sediments. Then, we examine the potential effects of climate change on mangrove stocks and fishers, indicating the scope of impending changes. By combining the above information, we develop a simple model that forecasts the number of "fishing-days" lost by fishers due to climate change over the next decade (between 11 and 21 days will be lost per year per fisher). This indicates which aspects of climate change will have the greatest impacts on stocks and fishers. We found that high-category typhoons had more impacts than heat waves, which in turn had a greater impact than low-category typhoons). Finally, recognising gaps in our knowledge and understanding, we offer recommendations for approaches for future work to improve our predictions.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00231-3.}, }
@article {pmid39619845, year = {2024}, author = {Cao, G and Yuan, X and Shu, Q and Gao, Y and Wu, T and Xiao, C and Xu, J and Zhang, Y}, title = {Prediction of the potentially suitable areas of Eucommia ulmoides Oliver in China under climate change based on optimized Biomod2 and MaxEnt models.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1359271}, pmid = {39619845}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Eucommia ulmoides Oliver is a medicinal plant of significant economic importance. Its cortex has been employed for centuries to alleviate various conditions such as lumbar pain, knee pain, and osteoporosis. Additionally, E. ulmoides possesses substantial industrial value. With the growing demand for this medicinal herb, ensuring its sustainable supply has become imperative. Climate change has caused habitat restrictions or migration of medicinal plants. Therefore, predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of E. ulmoides is crucial for its conservation and sustainable use. This study evaluated the potential distribution of E. ulmoides across China under various climate change scenarios since the last interglacial period by modeling suitable areas based on 257 distribution records and 19 major environmental factors related to E. ulmoides. The model selection process initially identified the MaxEnt model as the most suitable. The optimized MaxEnt model, with RM = 2.0 and FC = LQHPT settings, generated the most precise predictions. Results indicate that the minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation significantly affect the distribution of E. ulmoides. Under current environmental conditions, highly suitable areas for E. ulmoides are found in Southwest and Southeast China, with a total suitable habitat area of 23.12 × 10[4] km[2]. However, the range of suitable habitat has shifted due to global warming's negative impact. Under different climate scenarios, suitable areas for E. ulmoides have either increased or decreased, with expansions primarily in high-latitude regions. Future climate scenarios predict shifts in the centroid of suitable E. ulmoides habitat towards Yichang City in Hubei Province. The findings of this study support the development, artificial cultivation, and conservation of E. ulmoides resources.}, }
@article {pmid39619840, year = {2024}, author = {Muhammad, A and Kong, X and Zheng, S and Bai, N and Li, L and Khan, MHU and Fiaz, S and Zhang, Z}, title = {Exploring plant-microbe interactions in adapting to abiotic stress under climate change: a review.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1482739}, pmid = {39619840}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climatic change and extreme weather events have become a major threat to global agricultural productivity. Plants coexist with microorganisms, which play a significant role in influencing their growth and functional traits. The rhizosphere serves as an ecological niche encompassing plant roots and is a chemically complex environment that supports the growth and development of diverse plant-interactive microbes. Although plant-microbe interactions have been extensively investigated however, limited exploration have been made how abiotic stresses affect the structure and assembly of microbial communities in the rhizosphere. This review highlights climate change influence on plant growth, functional traits, and microbial communities. It explores plant mechanisms for mitigating abiotic stress, such as removing reactive oxygen species (ROS), regulating antioxidant activity and indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) production, and controlling growth-inhibitory ethylene levels through colonization by bacteria producing ACC deaminase. Additionally, we elaborated the systematic communicatory network steered by hormonal crosstalk and root exudation, which can modulate and initiate the dialogues between plants and surrounding microbes. This network ultimately promotes the chemotactic movement of microbes towards the rhizosphere, facilitating their early colonization. Finally, we reviewed the recent advancements for understanding how plant-microbe interactions foster resilience under climate stress.}, }
@article {pmid39619424, year = {2024}, author = {Palombo, D}, title = {Business, Human Rights and Climate Change: The Gradual Expansion of the Duty of Care.}, journal = {Oxford journal of legal studies}, volume = {44}, number = {4}, pages = {889-919}, doi = {10.1093/ojls/gqae023}, pmid = {39619424}, issn = {0143-6503}, abstract = {This article investigates how human rights considerations are increasingly shaping tort law by focusing on the gradual expansion of the duty of care in business and human rights cases. For decades, victims have attempted to hold parent companies to account for extraterritorial human rights abuses committed by their foreign subsidiaries. Recently, the Supreme Court ruled that UK courts have jurisdiction over such business and human rights cases. These cases are not only jurisdictional. They also contributed to developing the duty of care case law on parental liability. But how much can human rights considerations stretch the boundaries of tort law? The article analyses the case of climate change litigation to assess whether a further development in tort law jurisprudence would be necessary to hold corporations accountable for their contribution to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39618829, year = {2024}, author = {Scirocco, T and Eman, KU and Raviglione, MC and Kazi, GN}, title = {The time to act is now if we are to reduce the impact of climate change on global health.}, journal = {Public health action}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {137-138}, pmid = {39618829}, issn = {2220-8372}, }
@article {pmid39618413, year = {2024}, author = {Gougherty, AV and Prasad, AM and Peters, MP and Matthews, SN and Adams, BT}, title = {Climate Change and the Emergence of No-Analog Forest Assemblages in North America.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {12}, pages = {e17605}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17605}, pmid = {39618413}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; North America ; *Trees ; Phylogeny ; Biodiversity ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Future climate change is expected to result in tree species shifting their geographic distributions in ways that could reorganize species into assemblages with no contemporary analog. These projected no-analog forests raise concern as their ecological function could similarly shift, which may challenge established conservation and management efforts. Here, we implement a community-level modelling approach to identify the key climatic and topographic drivers of forest composition in North America, and then use these models to predict the distribution of "disappearing" and "novel" forest assemblages in future climate. We applied this modelling technique to both the taxonomic and phylogenetic composition of forest trees, to identify where species turnover may be greatest, and whether species are likely to be replaced with close relatives. Our work shows that approximately 11.9% of contemporary North American forests have low predicted similarity to future forests, and 26.2% of future forests could be compositionally novel compared with contemporary forests, but there was substantial geographic variability in the magnitude of these metrics across the continent. High-elevation regions in the west tend to be nearest to their closest compositional analog, suggesting these regions may be most likely to realize the future predicted composition. This work provides a new approach to understanding how forest composition may shift in future climates in a way that avoids the need for individual species predictions and extends climate-matching approaches with meaningful biological data.}, }
@article {pmid39616913, year = {2024}, author = {Pan, B and Tian, H and Pan, B and Zhong, T and Xin, M and Ding, J and Wei, J and Huang, HJ and Tang, JQ and Zhang, F and Feng, NX and Mo, CH}, title = {Investigating the environmental dynamics of emerging pollutants in response to global climate change: Insights from bibliometrics-based visualization analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {957}, number = {}, pages = {177758}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177758}, pmid = {39616913}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The environmental dynamics of emerging pollutants were profoundly influenced by global climate change, attracting widespread attention to this complex interaction. However, single studies or reviews were insufficient to grasp, clarify, and predict the evolutionary characteristics and coupling patterns of emerging pollutants under global climate change. Here, 2389 research articles collected from the Web of Science Core Collection database for the period 2000-2023 were analyzed using systematic bibliometric visual analysis software. Results suggested a rapid growth trend in this field study, particularly accelerating after 2015. The United States, China, the United Kingdom, and Spain led in the volume of publications, forming a multidisciplinary research network centered on environmental science. Wastewater treatment, personal care products, pharmaceuticals, and heavy metals were identified as current research hotspots, with climate change emerging as the most prominent keyword. Research focus gradually shifted from single pollutants to multi-pollutant composite effects, from local issues to global-scale assessments, and from phenomenon description to mechanism analysis and risk evaluation. It is concluded that climate change is reshaping the environmental behaviors and ecological risks of emerging pollutants, and multidisciplinary, multi-scale research methods are urgent need. Future research is suggested to strengthen interdisciplinary collaboration, integrate climate and pollutant migration models, and investigate impacts of extreme climate events in depth.}, }
@article {pmid39616896, year = {2024}, author = {Cui, Y}, title = {GLMY homology theory meets idopNetwork: Dissecting soil microbiota resilience under forest thinning and climate change.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {52}, number = {}, pages = {44-45}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2024.11.016}, pmid = {39616896}, issn = {1873-1457}, }
@article {pmid39616782, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, X and Li, M and Zhang, Z}, title = {Climate change challenges coastal blue carbon restoration in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123502}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123502}, pmid = {39616782}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Coastal blue carbon has become an emerging natural climate solution (NCS) that offers significant potential for mitigating global climate change while providing various ecosystem services. However, blue carbon ecosystems, including mangroves, tidal salt marshes, and seagrass meadows, are susceptible to the impacts of climate change, which in turn affects their potential to mitigate climate change. In this study, we employed the MaxEnt to evaluate the potential suitable areas and carbon sink potential of China's Coastal blue carbon ecosystem under three climate scenarios for the present and projected conditio ns in 2050. Our results reveal that China's coastal blue carbon ecosystems have an estimated carbon sequestration potential of 8.65 ∗ 10[5] t/a. Specifically the potential annual carbon sequestration of mangroves is 1.457 ∗ 10[5] t/a, tidal salt marshes is 6.714 ∗ 10[5] t/a, and seagrass is 4.769 ∗ 10[4] t/a. By 2050, due to climate change, the annual carbon sequestration potential of China's coastal blue carbon is projected to decrease by 0.733-2.351 ∗ 10[5] t/a, representing an 8-27 % reduction from the current levels. Furthermore, the distribution of potential suitable areas for these blue carbon ecosystems is expected to shifted to different degrees, among which the potential suitable areas of mangrove will be transferred to the greatest extent, showing a trend of northward expansion. Future conservation and restoration efforts for blue carbon ecosystems ought to consider the impact of climate change and fully utilize the potential of blue carbon.}, }
@article {pmid39616391, year = {2024}, author = {Zanaty, N and Ibrahim, N and Ramadan, HK and Ahmad, AA and Saad-Hussein, A}, title = {Significance of climate change in the emergence of human fascioliasis in Upper Egypt.}, journal = {Tropical diseases, travel medicine and vaccines}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {24}, pmid = {39616391}, issn = {2055-0936}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change in the upcoming years will raise the health burden of zoonotic parasites. As a liver fluke, Fasciola depends on certain climate conditions to complete its life cycle and is significantly influenced by climate changes. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the increasing prevalence of human fascioliasis and climate changes in Upper Egypt.<br><br>METHODS: Records of Fasciola cases in Assiut Governorate in Upper Egypt were evaluated between September 2018 and March 2023. The annual and monthly climate parameters of the region's temperature and humidity acquired from ERA5 and FLDAS were investigated between 2000 and 2023.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 303 patients were included. The mean age was 33.9&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;17.4 years; 57.1% were females, and the majority were rural residents. Positive correlations were found between temperature and the recorded cases in 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022 (r&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.92, 0.41, 0.61, and 0.60, respectively). In 2018 and 2022, humidity and Fasciola frequency had a significant positive correlation (r&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.97 and 0.49, respectively). An outbreak of fascioliasis was recorded in September 2018, coinciding with the peak temperature and high humidity levels, exceeding the average climatology range from 2000 to 2017. The recorded cases exhibited a seasonal pattern, with peaks in hot, humid summer and autumn.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The rise of human fascioliasis in Upper Egypt is influenced by local climate characteristics. A climate-based map of Fasciola distribution using forecast risk models is needed to predict future outbreaks and for better control.}, }
@article {pmid39616216, year = {2024}, author = {Lazoglou, G and Papadopoulos-Zachos, A and Georgiades, P and Zittis, G and Velikou, K and Manios, EM and Anagnostopoulou, C}, title = {Identification of climate change hotspots in the Mediterranean.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {29817}, pmid = {39616216}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {101081276//PREVENT project funded from the European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Program/ ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean region has long been identified as a climate change hotspot. However, within the Mediterranean, there are smaller sub-areas that exhibit a higher risk of climate change and extremes. Previous research has often focused on indices based on mean climate values, yet extremes are typically more impactful on humans and ecosystems. This study aims to identify the most vulnerable sub-areas of the Mediterranean as climate change hotspots using two indices: the newly introduced Mediterranean Hotspot Index (MED-HOT) and the well-defined Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI). The MED-HOT focuses on extreme high maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall, and drought, while RCCI assesses changes in mean climate conditions. By combining these indices, we provide an identification of Mediterranean hotspots, capturing both mean climate shifts and extremes. The spatiotemporal variation of both indices across the Mediterranean region is presented and the 20 subregions are categorized into distinct groups. The results reveal that the southeastern Mediterranean is at high risk according to both indices. Additionally, southern Italy is identified as high risk due to changes in mean climate (RCCI), while the northern part is at risk due to extreme events (MED-HOT). The Iberian Peninsula and Greece are also highlighted as vulnerable areas requiring extra attention.}, }
@article {pmid39615017, year = {2024}, author = {Basukala, AK and Eschenbach, A and Rasche, L}, title = {Effect of irrigation canal conveyance efficiency enhancement on crop productivity under climate change in Nepal.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {12}, pages = {1282}, pmid = {39615017}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Nepal ; *Agricultural Irrigation/methods ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; *Oryza/growth &amp; development ; *Zea mays/growth &amp; development ; Triticum/growth &amp; development ; Agriculture/methods ; }, abstract = {Nepal is expanding its irrigation facilities as an adaptive measure to climate change; however, the current canal conveyance efficiency (CCE) is low with significant water losses. In this study, we assess the potential impact of increasing CCE on the productivity of rice, maize, and wheat under different climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), utilizing three bias-adjusted general circulation models. The study simulates potential yields at ecoregion levels for two periods: near future (2023 to 2050) and end-century (2075 to 2100). Management scenarios include the following: (1) business as usual, (2) CCE at 30%, (3) CCE at 50%, and (4) CCE at 70%. The results indicate that increasing CCE to 30%, coupled with expanded irrigated areas and adjusted fertilization rates, could boost yields by three tons per hectare across all three crops at the national level. Further increasing CCE to 50% could yield additional increases of up to 0.6 t/ha of maize and 1.2 t/ha of rice in the terai region. A CCE of 70% results in further increases of up to 2.1 t/ha of rice and 1.2 t/ha of maize. The benefits of improved CCE vary by location, with the subtropical terai region experiencing the most and the mountain regions showing the least. We conclude that there is potential to increase yields by increasing CCE to 70% in the terai region, 50% in the hill region, and 30% in the mountains. Wheat appears to benefit the least from improved CCE. This work highlights efficient irrigation as a reliable adaptive measure for future climate change in Nepal.}, }
@article {pmid39612795, year = {2024}, author = {Suárez-Mozo, NY and Moulatlet, GM and Pérez-Ceballos, R and Capparelli, MV}, title = {Variation in mangrove species diversity across gradients of climate-change-induced environmental conditions and hydrological restoration.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123476}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123476}, pmid = {39612795}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Increasing drought, elevated temperatures, and salinization are significant challenges to reestablishing species in mangrove restoration areas. In this study, we assessed how the diversity of two key mangrove faunal groups, molluscs and brachyuran crustaceans (hereafter referred to as crabs), varies across a gradient of disturbed, restored, and natural (undisturbed) mangroves. We also explored what are the environmental factors driving these variations in ten sites across the southern Gulf of Mexico, one of the global regions with the largest mangrove coverage. A total of 15 species were recorded (10 mollusks and 5 crabs), with higher abundance in natural (612 individuals) than in restored (554 individuals) or degraded (98 individuals) sites. Community structure analyses revealed that certain species were restricted to specific restoration conditions. For example, the crab Minuca vocator was found only in restored sites, while the mollusc Vitta virginea was exclusive to natural sites. In contrast, species like the crab Minuca rapax were present across all site types. Salinity emerged as the primary environmental factor influencing community structure, with disturbed sites exhibiting significantly higher salinity levels than restored and natural sites. All sites were classified as hypersaline, presenting challenges for species that cannot tolerate such conditions. This study provides a valuable baseline for understanding the ecological conditions that influence on the success of mangrove restoration, offering insights on the effects of environmental factors driving species diversity in this ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid39612704, year = {2024}, author = {Istvánovics, V and Honti, M and Clement, A and Kravinszkaja, G and Pósfai, M and Torma, P}, title = {Chloride and sodium budgets of a shallow freshwater lake - Current status and the impact of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {957}, number = {}, pages = {177616}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177616}, pmid = {39612704}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The large, shallow Lake Balaton (Hungary) has experienced rapid salinization since the 1970s. This study investigated the causes of salinization and aimed at predicting the effects of climate change. Monthly mass balance models for chloride and sodium were calibrated using water balance and water quality monitoring data (1976-2022) to analyze the effects of climate change (2022-2100) through ensemble modeling under the IPCC RCP 4.5 scenario. Current (2016-2020) emission inventories were developed for both chloride and sodium. The long-term (1921-2022) emission inventory of chloride was used to build a simplified chloride balance model for the catchment. Historical salinization occurred with almost constant external loading, in parallel with the increasing water residence times. According to the mass balance model, 18-28 % of the cumulative chloride and sodium loads has been accumulated in lake sediments, potentially slowing recovery of the lake from salinization. Climate change was predicted to aggravate salinization by further reducing the water balance surplus. Even the extremely high chloride concentrations of the future will remain well below the drinking water limit, but they may adversely affect the aquatic ecosystem. Both agriculture and road deicing contributed about one-third of current chloride emissions. Wastewater accounted for <20 % due to significant wastewater diversion to adjacent catchments. The rapid intensification of Hungarian agriculture from the mid-1960s, followed by a sudden economic collapse in 1990, resulted in a large emission peak of chloride in the 1970-80s, providing a unique opportunity to estimate the long-term retention of chloride in the catchment. We estimated that 30 % of the chloride emitted since 1921 may still be present in groundwater/soils.}, }
@article {pmid39612041, year = {2024}, author = {Katznelson, E and Malkani, K and Zhang, R and Patel, S}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Cardiovascular Health.}, journal = {Current atherosclerosis reports}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {13}, pmid = {39612041}, issn = {1534-6242}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology ; Air Pollution/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change is profoundly impacting cardiovascular disease through rising temperatures, more extreme weather events, and worsening air pollution. This review analyzes how these factors affect cardiovascular health.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Extreme heat and cold cause physiological changes, including increasing the risk of blood clots, faster heart rates, and inflammation. Air pollution and wildfire smoke lead to oxidative stress and systemic inflammation, leading to heightened cardiovascular risk. Extreme weather disrupts healthcare access, complicating chronic condition management and negatively impacts people from lower socioeconomic communities. Climate-related stressors also affect mental health, which in turn impacts cardiovascular health. Long-term changes, such as food insecurity and migration, further strain heart health due to poor diets and psychological stress. Cardiologists must understand these risks to better support and treat patients in our changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid39611976, year = {2024}, author = {Riyaz, Z and Khan, ST}, title = {Nitrogen fixation by methanogenic Archaea, literature review and DNA database-based analysis; significance in face of climate change.}, journal = {Archives of microbiology}, volume = {207}, number = {1}, pages = {6}, pmid = {39611976}, issn = {1432-072X}, mesh = {*Nitrogen Fixation/genetics ; *Archaea/genetics/metabolism/classification ; *Climate Change ; *Soil Microbiology ; Phylogeny ; Databases, Nucleic Acid ; Methane/metabolism ; DNA, Archaeal/genetics ; }, abstract = {Archaea represents a significant population of up to 10% in soil microbial communities. The role of Archaea in soil is often overlooked mainly due to its unculturability. Among the three domains of life biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is mainly a trait of Eubacteria and some Archaea. Archaea mediated processes like BNF may become even more important in the face of global Climate change. Although there are reports on nitrogen fixation by Archaea, to best of our knowledge there is no comprehensive report on BNF by Archaea under environmental stresses typical to climate change. Here we report a survey of literature and DNA database to study N2-fixation among Archaea. A total of 37 Archaea belonging to Methanogens of the phylum Euryarchaeota within the class Methanococcus, Methanomicrobia Methanobacteria, and Methanotrophic ANME2 lineages either contain genes for BNF or are known to fix atmospheric N2. Archaea were found to have their nif genes arranged as clusters of 6-8 genes in a single operon. The genes code for commonly found Mo-nitrogenase while in some archaea the genes for alternative metal nitrogenases like vnf were also found. The nifHDK gene similarity matrices show that Archaea shared the highest similarity with the nifHDK gene of anaerobic Clostridium beijerinckii. Although there are various theories about the origin of N2-fixation in Archaea, the most acceptable is the origin of N2-fixation first in bacteria and its subsequent transfer to Archaea. Since Archaea can survive under extreme environmental conditions their role in BNF should be studied especially in soil under environmental stress.}, }
@article {pmid39611672, year = {2024}, author = {Dumbuya, S and Chabinga, R and Ferede, MA and Saber, M}, title = {Climate change impacts on maternal health and pregnancy outcomes in Africa.}, journal = {Journal of water and health}, volume = {22}, number = {11}, pages = {2113-2131}, pmid = {39611672}, issn = {1477-8920}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; *Climate Change ; Pregnancy ; Africa ; *Pregnancy Outcome/epidemiology ; *Maternal Health ; }, abstract = {The review examines how climate change adversely affects maternal health and pregnancy outcomes in Africa, a region particularly vulnerable to climate-related disasters. It highlights the increased incidence of tropical and waterborne illnesses due to climate change, disproportionately impacting expectant mothers. The study thoroughly evaluates the effects of extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods on maternal health, both directly and indirectly. It underscores significant gaps in policy and research within African health sectors regarding these issues. Key findings reveal that maternal death rates remain alarmingly high, with risks like preterm birth, stillbirth, and maternal hypertension exacerbated by climate change. The review calls for urgent action, including enhanced research, increased funding for climate adaptation, and the integration of maternal health into broader climate resilience strategies. Additionally, it emphasizes the need for greater awareness and international collaboration to strengthen health systems in Africa, particularly addressing the vulnerabilities of pregnant women. This work aims to enhance understanding among policymakers and researchers about the critical health impacts of climate change on pregnant women in Africa.}, }
@article {pmid39611671, year = {2024}, author = {Moon, MP}, title = {The silent threat: Unveiling climate change's water and health challenges in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Journal of water and health}, volume = {22}, number = {11}, pages = {2094-2112}, pmid = {39611671}, issn = {1477-8920}, mesh = {Bangladesh/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Water Supply ; Public Health ; Drinking Water/analysis ; Water Quality ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Bangladesh faces a growing number of issues, such as limited sources of potable water and health hazards that are either directly or indirectly linked to climate change. In total, 16 publications from 2007 to 2024 were manually screened for inclusion in this systematic review. The articles were divided into three categories: climate and water, climate and health, and climate, water, and health. Due to the climate change, 20 million individuals in Bangladesh have been suffering from water- and health-related illness. The results showed that among Bangladeshi vulnerable groups, cholera, infant diarrhea, pneumonia, dengue, malaria, mental illness, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, and an increase in communicable diseases like water-, vector-, and food-borne infections, along with malnutrition, are common. Further findings of the study include health risks, water-related risks, and difficulties in determining the consequences of climate change. This review study focuses on Bangladesh, a developing country, and the correlation between climate change and the dangers of water and health-related diseases. The findings of this study have substantial implications for risk assessment, water quality, climate change, and public health, especially in poor nations, as well as for policymakers and academicians in these fields.}, }
@article {pmid39611321, year = {2024}, author = {Khanal, S and Shrestha, R and Boeckmann, M}, title = {Examining health equity in Nepal's climate change and health policies through the lens of environmental justice: insights from a content analysis.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {2432069}, doi = {10.1080/16549716.2024.2432069}, pmid = {39611321}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Nepal ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Health Equity ; *Health Policy ; *Environmental Justice ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Qualitative Research ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change presents a multifaceted challenge with unequal health implications, particularly for vulnerable populations with limited adaptive capacity. Socioeconomic factors are intricately linked with environmental health outcomes and environmental factors significantly exacerbate existing health inequities. Health equity as a goal of environmental justice can address these issues.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To examine the integration of health equity within climate change and health policy documents in Nepal.<br><br>METHODS: Using a qualitative content analysis approach based on Schlosberg's framework of environmental justice, we analyzed the coverage of health equity considerations in climate and health policies, assessing aspects of distribution, recognition, and participation.<br><br>RESULTS: Twenty-one national-level policies, strategies, and plans/guidelines on climate change and health were analyzed. Nepal's policy documents lack clear definitions of health equity in relation to climate change, and related terms are used inconsistently. Health vulnerability is often addressed broadly rather than specifically. Health equity-related statements from environmental justice viewpoint vary across sectors. Many documents emphasize equitable distribution of resources and benefits, with participation in decision-making processes being the least discussed.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In Nepal, lack of shared understanding of health equity across sectors hinders coordinated policy efforts. There is an urgent need to expand climate change responses to consider specific health vulnerabilities. By positioning health equity as a key element of environmental justice, this study provides a broader perspective on climate change-related health equity that could encourage collaborative action between the environment and health sectors.}, }
@article {pmid39609135, year = {2024}, author = {González, AG and Forja, J and Santos-Echeandía, J and Blasco, J and Torres-Padrón, M}, title = {Editorial for climate change and oceans.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {177683}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177683}, pmid = {39609135}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid39608899, year = {2024}, author = {Katey, D and Zanu, S}, title = {Climate change and population aging: The role of older adults in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of aging studies}, volume = {71}, number = {}, pages = {101274}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaging.2024.101274}, pmid = {39608899}, issn = {1879-193X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Aged ; *Aging ; }, abstract = {This paper explores the intersection of climate change, population aging, and community resilience, focusing on the potentially powerful roles of older adults in climate change mitigation efforts, particularly in developing countries. Through a brief review of relevant literature in the fields of environmental studies, gerontology, and community development, the paper examines the vulnerabilities of older adults to climate change impacts and their potential contributions to adaptation and mitigation strategies. By integrating findings from some existing literature, the paper contributes to ongoing conversations about the inclusivity of climate change actions and the empowerment of marginalized groups. Our suggestions include harnessing the traditional knowledge and leadership of older adults and empowering them to act as climate change activists within their communities. Additionally, the paper suggests encouraging older adults to organize community capacity-building workshops that advocate for environmentally sustainable initiatives. We conclude by emphasizing that neglecting older adults in the climate change discourse risks exacerbating entrenched social inequalities and overlooks the potentially valuable resources and knowledge that older adults can contribute toward climate change mitigation and adaptation. This therefore calls for the recognition of older adults as vital agents of change and empowering them through inclusive development policies, programs, and initiatives. Future research should investigate the long-term impacts of inviting older adults into climate change mitigation efforts, and the barriers that may hinder their active engagement.}, }
@article {pmid39608242, year = {2024}, author = {Saqib, SE and Yaseen, M and Yang, SH and Ali, S and Visetnoi, S}, title = {Farmers' adaptation to climate change in Pakistan: Can their climate risk management strategies lead to sustainable agriculture?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123447}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123447}, pmid = {39608242}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Farming communities in many developing nations are facing the impacts of climate change, characterized by greater variability and frequency of extreme weather events, which threaten their livelihoods and the agricultural sector as a whole. Agricultural sustainability is at risk when farmers engage in off-farm activities to protect their economic future and combat climate change. This study aimed to identify the determinants of off-farm management activities adoption and highlight the issues faced by farmers after their adoption in agriculture. The data were collected data through a questionnaire survey from 360 farm households in Pakistan. The study utilized a stepwise probit regression to analyse the adoption of land use and migration-based diversification as risk management strategies. The results indicated that marital status, household size, risk perception of rains, floods, drought, and extreme weather were the factors determining the adoption of land use and migration-based diversification as risk management strategies. However, livestock showed a negative association with the adoption of these strategies. Moreover, the study identified crop failure as the primary reason to adopt off-farm strategies, followed by rising production costs. The results showed that farmers were managing climate change risks at the cost of farmland, labour loss, and increased production costs. The study is unique in its focus on the unanticipated negative effects of this adaptation. The findings emphasize the need for investment in climate-smart agriculture and financial assistance for farmers. Building a sustainable agricultural system needs more than just adaptation: long-term practices and financial protections to stabilize farmers' incomes and help rural areas develop.}, }
@article {pmid39607982, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, YX and Wang, M and Wu, XY and Zhou, YN and Qiu, J and Cai, X and Li, ZH}, title = {The chromosome-level genome assembly of an endangered herb Bergenia scopulosa provides insights into local adaptation and genomic vulnerability under climate change.}, journal = {GigaScience}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39607982}, issn = {2047-217X}, support = {32470392//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 23JHZ009//Basic Research Project of Shaanxi Academy of Fundamental Science/ ; 2022ZDLSF06-02//Key Program of Research and Development of Shaanxi Province/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Endangered Species ; *Genome, Plant ; *Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Genomics/methods ; Genetics, Population ; Chromosomes, Plant/genetics ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global climate change poses severe threats to biodiversity and ecosystem stability. Rapid climate oscillations potentially lead to species geographic range shifts, population declines, and even extinctions. The rare and endangered species, being critical components of regional biodiversity, hold the key to understanding local adaptation and evolutionary processes shaping species distributions. Therefore, assessing the evolutionary mechanisms of local adaptation and population vulnerability under climate change is crucial for developing conservation strategies of endangered species.<br><br>RESULTS: In this study, we assembled a high-quality, chromosome-level genome of the rare and endangered herb Bergenia scopulosa in the Qinling Mountains in East Asia and resequenced 37 individual genomes spanning its entire geographic distributional ranges. By integrating population genetics, landscape genomics, and climate datasets, a substantial number of adaptive single-nucleotide polymorphism loci associated with climate variables were identified. The genotype-environment association analysis showed that some cold-tolerant genes have played pivotal roles in cold environmental adaptation of B. scopulosa. These findings are further corroborated through evolutionary analysis of gene family and quantitative PCR validation. Population genomic analysis revealed 2 distinct genetic lineages in B. scopulosa. The western lineage showed higher genomic vulnerability and more rare cold-tolerance alleles, suggesting its heightened sensitivity to impending climate shifts, and should be given priority conservation in the management practices.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide novel insights into local adaptation and genomic vulnerability of B. scopulosa under climate change in the Qinling Mountains in East Asia. Additionally, the study also offers valuable guidance for formulating conservation strategies for the rare and endangered plants.}, }
@article {pmid39607905, year = {2024}, author = {Lachs, L and Bozec, YM and Bythell, JC and Donner, SD and East, HK and Edwards, AJ and Golbuu, Y and Gouezo, M and Guest, JR and Humanes, A and Riginos, C and Mumby, PJ}, title = {Natural selection could determine whether Acropora corals persist under expected climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {eadl6480}, doi = {10.1126/science.adl6480}, pmid = {39607905}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Marine heatwaves are intensifying under climate change, exposing populations of reef-building corals to mass mortality and intense selective pressure. It remains unknown whether adaptation can keep pace with warming and maintain reef functioning. We have developed an eco-evolutionary metapopulation model for Acropora, an ecologically important yet highly threatened coral taxon. We find that although corals have some adaptation capacity, they will suffer severe heatwave-induced declines over the coming decades. For a future where emissions lead to ~3°C of global warming, natural selection could allow populations to persist, albeit in severely depleted states with elevated extinction risk and potential loss of ecosystem functioning. Yet, for thermally sensitive coral populations to thrive post-2050 demands rapid reductions of greenhouse gas emissions that limit global warming to 2°C.}, }
@article {pmid39607839, year = {2024}, author = {Orievulu, KS and Buczkowska, M and Iwuji, CC}, title = {Does climate change threaten delivery of HIV care in resource-limited settings?.}, journal = {Current opinion in infectious diseases}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39607839}, issn = {1473-6527}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Extreme weather events (EWEs) pose a challenge to achieving UNAIDS goal of eliminating HIV as a public health threat by 2030. This review summarizes recent findings describing the disruption of HIV services by EWEs and discusses strategies for a resilient HIV care programme in resource-limited settings.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: EWEs impact each component of the continuum of care - HIV testing, linkage to treatment, viral suppression and other HIV prevention services. EWEs disrupt healthcare provision either through impacting the ability of the healthcare system to deliver care because of infrastructure damage and increased workload or by limiting people's ability to seek healthcare because of access challenges and forced displacements. This culminates in disengagement from care, poor treatment adherence and increase in HIV disease progression with more vulnerable groups such as women and young people being more adversely impacted.<br><br>SUMMARY: Most people affected by or at risk of HIV reside in resource-poor settings which are the region with the least capacity to adapt to climate change. Few recent studies with very limited geographical coverage show that EWEs affect the delivery of HIV care in this setting. Climate adaptation and mitigation policies are required to protect health in resource-limited settings.}, }
@article {pmid39606844, year = {2024}, author = {Soomro, S and Zhou, D and Charan, IA}, title = {Investigating Associations Between Climate Change Anxiety and Children's Mental Health in Pakistan: Impacts and Priority Actions - CORRIGENDUM.}, journal = {Disaster medicine and public health preparedness}, volume = {18}, number = {}, pages = {e294}, doi = {10.1017/dmp.2024.328}, pmid = {39606844}, issn = {1938-744X}, }
@article {pmid39606748, year = {2024}, author = {Magalhães, AFA}, title = {Climate change and its impacts on the world of work.}, journal = {Revista brasileira de medicina do trabalho : publicacao oficial da Associacao Nacional de Medicina do Trabalho-ANAMT}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {e2024223}, doi = {10.47626/1679-4435-2024-223}, pmid = {39606748}, issn = {1679-4435}, }
@article {pmid39605176, year = {2024}, author = {Rodrigues-Filho, CAS and Costa, FRC and Schietti, J and Nogueira, A and Leitão, RP and Menger, J and Borba, G and Gerolamo, CS and Avilla, SS and Emilio, T and de Castilho, CV and Bastos, DA and Rocha, EX and Fernandes, IO and Cornelius, C and Zuanon, J and Souza, JLP and Utta, ACS and Baccaro, FB}, title = {Multi-Taxa Responses to Climate Change in the Amazon Forest.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {e17598}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17598}, pmid = {39605176}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas/ ; //Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; //Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Birds/physiology ; *Forests ; *Ants/physiology ; *Fishes/physiology ; Brazil ; Droughts ; Arecaceae/physiology/growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Tropical biodiversity is undergoing unprecedented changes due to the hydrological cycle intensification, characterized by more intense droughts and wet seasons. This raises concerns about the resilience of animal and plant communities to such extremes and the existence of potential refugia-areas theorized to safeguard biological communities from adverse climate impacts. Over 20 years of monitoring in Central Amazonia, we investigated the short-term and long-term effects of hydrological cycle intensification on bird, fish, ant, and palm communities. We explored whether the 'insurance effect' of climate trends (droughts buffered by preceded wet seasons) or 'environmental refugia' (droughts or floods buffered by topographic features) could lessen the impact of climate events on community composition, richness, evenness, and species rank. Pronounced abundance changes were observed among animal species, whereas palm species showed relative temporal stability. Birds and fish were more affected by the immediate and long-term severity of droughts and wet periods, while ants responded primarily to short-term drought impacts. Conversely, palm communities exhibited delayed responses to climate extremes, primarily in long-term comparisons. As expected, the proposed 'insurance effect' mitigates the long-term impacts of extreme climate events on animal and plant community trends. However, less extreme hydrological conditions linked to topographic features did not provide effective 'environmental refugia' for animals or plants during adverse climate conditions. These outcomes underscore the complex and varied biological responses to ongoing climate change, challenging the prevailing assumptions about the efficacy of environmental refugia and highlighting the nuanced resilience of biodiversity in Central Amazonia.}, }
@article {pmid39604352, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, L and Feiner, ZS and Frater, P and Hansen, GJA and Ladwig, R and Paukert, CP and Verhoeven, M and Wszola, L and Jensen, OP}, title = {Asymmetric impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for inland lake fishes.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {10273}, pmid = {39604352}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; *Lakes ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Fishes/physiology ; *Temperature ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering the thermal habitats of freshwater fish species. We analyze modeled daily temperature profiles from 12,688 lakes in the US to track changes in thermal habitat of 60 lake fish species from different thermal guilds during 1980-2021. We quantify changes in each species' preferred days, defined as the number of days per year when a lake contains the species' preferred temperature. We find that cooler-water species are losing preferred days more rapidly than warmer-water species are gaining them. This asymmetric impact cannot be attributed to differences in geographic distribution among species; instead, it is linked to the seasonal dynamics of lake temperatures and increased thermal homogenization of the water column. The potential advantages of an increase in warmer-water species may not fully compensate for the losses in cooler-water species as warming continues, emphasizing the importance of mitigating climate change to support effective freshwater fisheries management.}, }
@article {pmid39603819, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, BX and Li, CJ and Zhou, ZF and Yao, YX and Wang, XY and Zhong, K and Yang, HQ and Wei, JR and Huai, WX}, title = {Forecasting the distribution range of Hylurgus ligniperda (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in the present and future under the influence of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toae254}, pmid = {39603819}, issn = {1938-291X}, support = {2021YFD1400300//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {Hylurgus ligniperda (Fabricius) is an important pest that attacks Pinus species in China. It impacts the vitality of local pine vegetation, reduces the ability to prevent windbreak and sand fixation, and causes ecological loss. MaxEnt and ArcGIS are used to predict and analyze the changes in suitable distribution areas of H. ligniperda under current and future climate scenarios, based on 12 climate factor datasets and 1,001 field distribution data points for this pest. The environmental variables used significantly influence the potential distribution of H. ligniperda. Highly suitable areas of this beetle are located in western Europe, central Asia, and the southeastern regions of Oceania, with sporadic occurrences across North America, South America, and Africa. Highly suitable areas in China occur across the east, central south, and southwest regions. There is a significant increase in the high and medium suitability areas, while the area of low suitability decreases under the 4 future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). The suitable distribution area for H. ligniperda shows an overall trend of moving northwestward. The purpose of this current study is to provide important theoretical support for the prevention and management of this pest by predicting and analyzing suitable distribution areas under current and future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid39603267, year = {2024}, author = {Song, C and Liu, Q and Ma, X and Liu, J}, title = {The impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Cacopsylla chinensis (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) in China.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toae255}, pmid = {39603267}, issn = {1938-291X}, support = {32202284//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2022ZDYF122//Key Research and Development Project of Shanxi Province/ ; 202203021222176//Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province/ ; SXBYKY2023017//Excellent Doctoral Award of Shanxi Province for Scientific Research Project/ ; 2023BQ31//Scientific Research Foundation of Shanxi Agricultural University/ ; }, abstract = {Cacopsylla chinensis is an oligophagous pest and has become one of the main pests that cause yield loss in commercial pear orchards in China. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution range of C. chinensis is crucial for its effectively preventing and managing. In this study, we collected 102 geographic distribution information of C. chinensis with 8 selected crucial environmental variables to simulate its potential suitable habitats. On this basis, the parameter-optimized maximum entropy model was utilized to predict the potential effect of future climate variation on its distribution, considering various socio-economic pathway scenarios and 3 Earth system models. The findings showed that the current total potential suitable area for C. chinensis was 578.29 × 104 km2, which accounts for 60.24% of China's territory. In the total area, the suitability areas of low, medium, and high were 308.21 × 104 km2, 118.50 × 104 km2, and 151.58 × 104 km2, respectively. Among them, the high suitability areas are mainly distributed in Anhui, Beijing, Chongqing, Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Tianjin. Furthermore, our predictions suggest that the potentially suitable areas for this pest will increase by 8.49-35.02% under various future climate change conditions in China. The findings will be propitious to understand the linkage between C. chinensis niches and the relevant environment. It also provides valuable insights for developing future pest management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39601566, year = {2024}, author = {Buchwald, AG and Boudova, S}, title = {Invited Perspective: Climate Change and Maternal Mental Health-Looking beyond High-Income Countries.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {132}, number = {11}, pages = {111301}, pmid = {39601566}, issn = {1552-9924}, }
@article {pmid39600923, year = {2024}, author = {He, Q and Tian, S and Hua, J and Liu, Z and Liu, Y and Jin, T and Xu, J}, title = {Land Use and Climate Change Accelerate the Loss of Habitat and Ecological Corridor to Reeves's Pheasant (Syrmaticus reevesii) in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {e70618}, pmid = {39600923}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Human activity and climate change are widely considered to be primarily responsible for the extinction of Galliformes birds. Due to a decline in population, the Reeves's pheasant (Syrmaticus reevesii), a member of the Galliformes family, was recently elevated to first-class national protected status in China. However, determining the causal factors of their extinction and carrying out protection measures appear to be challenging owing to a lack of long-term data with high spatial and temporal resolutions. Here, based on a national field survey, we used habitat suitability models and integrated data on geographical environment, road development, land use, and climate change to predict the potential changes in the distribution and connectivity of the habitat of Reeves's pheasant from 1995 to 2050. Furthermore, ecological corridors were identified using the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. The prioritized areas for habitat restoration were determined by integrating the importance indices of ecological sources and corridors. Our results indicated that both land use and climate change were linked to the increased habitat loss for the Reeves's pheasant. In more recent decades, road construction and land use changes have been linked to a rise in habitat loss, and future climate change has been predicted to cause the habitat to become even more fragmented and lose 89.58% of its total area. The ecological corridor for Reeves's pheasant will continue to decline by 88.55%. To counteract the negative effects of human activity and climate change on the survivorship of Reeves's pheasant, we recommend taking immediate actions, including bolstering cooperation among provincial governments, restoring habitats, and creating ecological corridors among important habitats.}, }
@article {pmid39600252, year = {2024}, author = {Grupstra, CGB and Meyer-Kaiser, KS and Bennett, MJ and Andres, MO and Juszkiewicz, DJ and Fifer, JE and Da-Anoy, JP and Gomez-Campo, K and Martinez-Rugerio, I and Aichelman, HE and Huzar, AK and Hughes, AM and Rivera, HE and Davies, SW}, title = {Holobiont Traits Shape Climate Change Responses in Cryptic Coral Lineages.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {e17578}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17578}, pmid = {39600252}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2048589//The National Science Foundation's Division of Ocean Sciences/ ; 2048678//The National Science Foundation's Division of Ocean Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Anthozoa/microbiology/physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; *Symbiosis ; Microbiota ; Dinoflagellida/physiology ; }, abstract = {As ocean warming threatens reefs worldwide, identifying corals with adaptations to higher temperatures is critical for conservation. Genetically distinct but morphologically similar (i.e. cryptic) coral populations can be specialized to extreme habitats and thrive under stressful conditions. These corals often associate with locally beneficial microbiota (Symbiodiniaceae photobionts and bacteria), obscuring the main drivers of thermal tolerance. Here, we leverage a holobiont (massive Porites) with high fidelity for C15 photobionts to investigate adaptive variation across classic ("typical" conditions) and extreme reefs characterized by higher temperatures and light attenuation. We uncovered three cryptic lineages that exhibit limited micro-morphological variation; one lineage dominated classic reefs (L1), one had more even distributions (L2), and a third was restricted to extreme reefs (L3). L1 and L2 were more closely related to populations ~4300 km away, suggesting that some lineages are widespread. All corals harbored Cladocopium C15 photobionts; L1 and L2 shared a photobiont pool that differed in composition between reef types, yet L3 mostly harbored unique photobiont strains not found in the other lineages. Assemblages of bacterial partners differed among reef types in lineage-specific ways, suggesting that lineages employ distinct microbiome regulation strategies. Analysis of light-harvesting capacity and thermal tolerance revealed adaptive variation underpinning survival in distinct habitats: L1 had the highest light absorption efficiency and lowest thermal tolerance, suggesting that it is a classic reef specialist. L3 had the lowest light absorption efficiency and the highest thermal tolerance, showing that it is an extreme reef specialist. L2 had intermediate light absorption efficiency and thermal tolerance, suggesting that is a generalist lineage. These findings reveal diverging holobiont strategies to cope with extreme conditions. Resolving coral lineages is key to understanding variation in thermal tolerance among coral populations, can strengthen our understanding of coral evolution and symbiosis, and support global conservation and restoration efforts.}, }
@article {pmid39599428, year = {2024}, author = {Dominguez, DLE and Cirrincione, MA and Deis, L and Martínez, LE}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Temperature Rise on Phenology, Physiology, and Yield in Three Red Grape Cultivars: Malbec, Bonarda, and Syrah.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {39599428}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {06/A708 Res. 4142/2019-R, 0130/2019//National University of Cuyo and Corporation of Viticulture from Argentina (COVIAR) Project No 0130/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has significant implications for agriculture, especially in viticulture, where temperature plays a crucial role in grapevine (Vitis vinifera) growth. Mendoza's climate is ideal for producing high-quality wines, but 21st-century climate change is expected to have negative impacts. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of increased temperature on the phenology, physiology, and yield of Malbec, Bonarda, and Syrah. A field trial was conducted over two seasons (2019-2020 and 2020-2021) in an experimental vineyard with an active canopy heating system (+2-4 °C). Phenological stages (budburst, flowering, fruit set, veraison, harvest), shoot growth (SG), number of shoots (NS), stomatal conductance (gs), chlorophyll content (CC), chlorophyll fluorescence (CF), and water potential (ψa) were measured. Additionally, temperature, relative humidity, light intensity, and canopy temperature were recorded. Heat treatment advanced all phenological stages by approximately two weeks, increased SG and NS, and reduced gs and ψa during the hottest months. CC and CF remained unaffected. The treatment also resulted in lower yields, reduced acidity, and increased °Brix in both seasons. Overall, rising temperatures due to climate change advance the phenological phases of Malbec, Syrah, and Bonarda, leading to lower yields, higher °Brix, and lower acidity, although physiological variables remained largely unchanged.}, }
@article {pmid39599384, year = {2024}, author = {Xiao, X and Li, Z and Ran, Z and Yan, C and Chen, J}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Endemic Plant Section Tuberculata (Camellia L.) in China: MaxEnt Model-Based Projection.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {39599384}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {32400179//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2022 (072)//Guizhou Provincial Basic Research Program (Natural Science)/ ; }, abstract = {Sect. Tuberculata, as one of the endemic plant groups in China, belongs to the genus Camellia of the Theaceae family and possesses significant economic and ecological value. Nevertheless, the characteristics of habitat distribution and the major eco-environmental variables affecting its suitability are poorly understood. In this study, using 65 occurrence records, along with 60 environmental factors, historical, present and future suitable habitats were estimated using MaxEnt modeling, and the important environmental variables affecting the geographical distribution of sect. Tuberculata were analyzed. The results indicate that the size of the its potential habitat area in the current climate was 1.05 × 10[5] km[2], and the highly suitable habitats were located in Guizhou, central-southern Sichuan, the Wuling Mountains in Chongqing, the Panjiang Basin, and southwestern Hunan. The highest probability of presence for it occurs at mean diurnal range (bio2) ≤ 7.83 °C, basic saturation (s_bs) ≤ 53.36%, temperature annual range (bio7) ≤ 27.49 °C, -7.75 °C < mean temperature of driest quarter (bio9) < 7.75 °C, annual UV-B seasonality (uvb2) ≤ 1.31 × 10[5] W/m[2], and mean UV-B of highest month (uvb3) ≤ 5089.61 W/m[2]. In particular, bio2 is its most important environmental factor. During the historical period, the potential habitat area for sect. Tuberculata was severely fragmented; in contrast, the current period has a more concentrated habitat area. In the three future periods, the potential habitat area will change by varying degrees, depending on the aggressiveness of emissions reductions, and the increase in the potential habitat area was the largest in the SSP2.6 (Low-concentration greenhouse gas emissions) scenario. Although the SSP8.5 (High-concentration greenhouse gas emissions) scenario indicated an expansion in its habitat in the short term, its growth and development would be adversely affected in the long term. In the centroid analysis, the centroid of its potential habitat will shift from lower to higher latitudes in the northwest direction. The findings of our study will aid efforts to uncover its originsand geographic differentiation, conservation of unique germplasms, and forestry development and utilization.}, }
@article {pmid39596892, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, L and Liang, S and Xie, C and Liu, J and Zheng, Y and Xue, J}, title = {Predicting the Potential Distribution of Aralia chinensis L. (Wild Vegetable) in China Under Different Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {39596892}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {Qian.ke He Ji. chu [2020]1Y389//Guizhou Provincial Science and Technology Program Project/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate change has a main impact on the distribution of plants. Aralia chinensis L. is economically valuable, making it necessary to predict the impact of climate change on its distribution. It is important for researching the effects of climate change on A. chinensis distribution to achieve sustainable utilization. Based on 340 occurrence records of A. chinensis covering all known provinces and 58 environmental factor data, we used MaxEnt to simulate the potential distribution of A. chinensis under current and different future climate scenarios, analyzing the key environmental variables affecting its distribution. The results were as follows: (1) Suitable A. chinensis habitats under current and different future climate scenarios were mainly distributed in the southern region of China, east of the Hu Huanyong line. (2) Annual precipitation, minimum temperature during the coldest month, precipitation during the driest month, and slope were the key environmental variables affecting its potential distribution, and annual precipitation was more important. (3) Suitable habitat areas were projected to increase under different future climate scenarios and expand westward and northward while shrinking in the central regions, such as Hubei and Hunan. The results provide a theoretical reference for the conservation and cultivation of A. chinensis.}, }
@article {pmid39595748, year = {2024}, author = {Haque, F and Lampe, FC and Hajat, S and Stavrianaki, K and Hasan, SMT and Faruque, ASG and Ahmed, T and Jubayer, S and Kelman, I}, title = {Heat Index: An Alternative Indicator for Measuring the Impacts of Meteorological Factors on Diarrhoea in the Climate Change Era: A Time Series Study in Dhaka, Bangladesh.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {39595748}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Bangladesh/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Diarrhea/epidemiology ; Child, Preschool ; Male ; Female ; Infant ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Child ; *Hospitalization/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Young Adult ; Middle Aged ; Humidity ; Infant, Newborn ; Aged ; }, abstract = {Heat index (HI) is a biometeorological indicator that combines temperature and relative humidity. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the Heat Index and daily counts of diarrhoea hospitalisation in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Data on daily diarrhoea hospitalisations and meteorological variables from 1981 to 2010 were collected. We categorised the Heat Index of >94.3 °F (>34.6 °C), >100.7 °F (>38.2 °C) and >105 °F (>40.6 °C) as high, very high and extremely high Heat Index, respectively. We applied a time series adjusted generalised linear model (GLM) with negative binomial distribution to investigate the effects of the Heat Index and extreme Heat Index on hospitalisations for diarrhoea. Effects were assessed for all ages, children under 5 years old and by gender. A unit higher HI and high, very high and extremely high HI were associated with 0.8%, 8%, 7% and 9% increase in diarrhoea hospitalisations in all ages, respectively. The effects varied slightly by gender and were most pronounced in children under 5 years old with a rise of 1°F in high, very high and extremely high HI associated with a 14.1% (95% CI: 11.3-17.0%), 18.3% (95% CI: 13.4-23.5%) and 18.1% (95% CI: 8.4-28.6%) increase of diarrhoea, respectively. This suggests that the Heat Index may serve as an alternative indicator for measuring the combined effects of temperature and humidity on diarrhoea.}, }
@article {pmid39595724, year = {2024}, author = {Nuvolari-Duodo, I and Dolcini, M and Buffoli, M and Rebecchi, A and Dall'Ò, G and Monticelli, C and Vertua, C and Brambilla, A and Capolongo, S}, title = {Integrated Climate Change Mitigation and Public Health Protection Strategies: The Case of the City of Bologna, Italy.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {39595724}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Italy ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; *Cities ; Humans ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control/analysis ; Built Environment ; Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The ongoing process of global warming, driven by the escalating concentration of greenhouse gases generated by human activities, especially in urban areas, significantly impacts public health. Local authorities play an important role in health promotion and disease prevention, and some aim to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. There is a consistent action underway to reach this goal, hence the need for mapping and implementing effective strategies and regulations.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study includes the analysis of policy guidelines adopted by the city of Bologna, consulted in March and April 2024. Bologna is one of the 100 cities committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2030, 20 years ahead of the EU target. To identify the strategies adopted to mitigate climate change, the following methodology was used: (i) the systematic mapping of sources and spatial planning documents; (ii) the extrapolation of goals, measures, and target indicators; and (iii) the development of an overall matrix.<br><br>RESULTS: The main findings of the study and their connection to public health pertain to the identification of key macro-areas contributing to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, while reducing the impact of climate change on health: (1) built environment and renewable energy sources, (2) transport and mobility, (3) energy, (4) green areas and land use, and (5) citizen support. Within these five macro-areas, 14 goals have been identified, to which a total of 36 measures correspond, and, finally, a target indicator is determined, mainly with respect to the reduction of tons of CO2 equivalent per year.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In order to protect public health, it is evident that buildings and urban activities should not produce carbon emissions throughout their lifecycle. This paper presents a method to evaluate municipal policies regarding dual-impact solutions that address both environmental protection through sustainability strategies and public health, in compliance with the Health in All Policies (HiAP) approach.}, }
@article {pmid39595682, year = {2024}, author = {Alarcón Garavito, GA and Toncón Chaparro, LF and Jasim, S and Zanatta, F and Miliou, I and Bampa, M and Huebner, G and Keck, T}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on the Mental Health of Populations at Disproportionate Risk of Health Impacts and Inequities: A Rapid Scoping Review of Reviews.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {39595682}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {NA//UCL Cities Partnership Programme in the UCL Global Engagement Office/ ; 212264/Z/18/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; NA//Royal Society/ ; EP/R035288/1//the Centre for Research Into Energy Demand Solutions/ ; EP/Y010078/1//the Energy Demand Research Centre/ ; NA//the National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration North Thames/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Health Status Disparities ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on mental health are starting to be recognized and may be exacerbated for populations at disproportionate risk of health impacts or inequalities, including some people living in low- and middle-income countries, children, indigenous populations, and people living in rural communities, among others. Here, we conduct a rapid scoping review of reviews to summarize the research to date on climate impacts on the mental health of populations at disproportionate risk. This review highlights the direct and indirect effects of climate change, the common mental health issues that have been studied related to climate events, and the populations that have been studied to date. This review outlines key gaps in the field and important research areas going forward. These include a need for more systematic methodologies, with before-and-after comparisons or exposure/non-exposure group comparisons and consistent mental health outcome measurements that are appropriately adapted for the populations being studied. Further research is also necessary in regard to the indirect effects of climate change and the climate effects on indigenous populations and populations with other protected and intersecting characteristics. This review highlights the key research areas to date and maps the critical future research necessary to develop future interventions.}, }
@article {pmid39592666, year = {2024}, author = {Alisoltani, T and Shafiepour Motlagh, M and Ashrafi, K}, title = {Concurrent heat stress and air pollution episodes by considering future projection of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {29301}, pmid = {39592666}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The simultaneous effect of heat stress and air pollutants such as ozone can cause many health issues in cities. The situation exacerbates in the context of climate change and temperature rise. Furthermore, ground-level ozone, worsened by climate change, needs investigation for effective management. Therefore, this study projects heat stress and ozone levels in two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate scenarios, SSP245 and SSP585. Results indicate heightened heat stress with increased ozone levels, especially in severe climate scenarios like SSP585. Besides, the study shows that in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the seasonal shift of high Heat Index (HI) values as well as high ozone concentrations is happening toward the previous months of June-July-August (JJA). High values in the HI classification and the Maximum Daily 8-hour average (MDA8) ozone happen sooner in the March-April-May (MAM) months than the expected JJA months. Furthermore, in the SSP585 scenario, the HI classification above 105 (very hot equal to danger category) is 10% high in all months in comparison to the SSP245 scenario. The study emphasizes the importance of understanding the interactions between heat stress and ozone pollution for implementing effective adaptation and mitigation measures.}, }
@article {pmid39592293, year = {2024}, author = {Gao, G and Li, B and Niklas, KJ and Huang, Y and Xu, M and Liu, G and Fu, B}, title = {Deep soil carbon pool responses to climate change in the Chinese Loess Plateau.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2024.11.014}, pmid = {39592293}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid39592275, year = {2024}, author = {Chatziparasidis, G and Kantar, A and Rafailia Chatziparasidi, M and Fouzas, S and Bush, A and Chang, A}, title = {The potential effects of climate change on non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis in children.}, journal = {Paediatric respiratory reviews}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.prrv.2024.10.002}, pmid = {39592275}, issn = {1526-0550}, abstract = {Climate change may have devastating effects on the pathogenesis of non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis in children since it affects the biological cycle of the respiratory pathogens and alters the human respiratory defense mechanisms. Bronchiectasis in children has been identified as an emerging global epidemic that has attracted the attention of the medical community over recent years. Pediatric pulmonologists should be aware of the consequences of climate change on children with bronchiectasis and plan strategies to ameliorate these effects.}, }
@article {pmid39591794, year = {2024}, author = {Khalil, MIM and Shaala, RS and Mousa, EFS and Zoromba, MA and Atta, MHR}, title = {Examining the associations between emotionally charged reactions toward climate change and self-care, quality of life among older adults, coping mechanisms, and pro-environmental practices.}, journal = {Geriatric nursing (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {61}, number = {}, pages = {353-363}, doi = {10.1016/j.gerinurse.2024.11.013}, pmid = {39591794}, issn = {1528-3984}, abstract = {AIM: To examine the associations between emotionally charged reactions to climate change, self-care, quality of life among older adults, coping mechanisms, and pro-environmental practices.<br><br>BACKGROUND: Older adults often face unique challenges in coping with climate change and its detrimental effect on self-care and quality of life. They may be particularly vulnerable to this pressing global issue.<br><br>METHOD: A multi-center, descriptive, correlational approach from three governorates in Egypt. A convenience sample of 609 older adults answered the Inventory of Climate Emotions, the Older People's Quality of Life-Brief, the Self-care Ability Scale for the Elderly, the Pro-Environmental Practices Assessment, and the Coping Scale with Climate Change.<br><br>RESULTS: The overall emotionally charged reactions to the idea of climate change showed a negative correlation with both the older adults' QoL total score (r = -.762) and the Self-care Ability Scale (r = -.775), yet a positive correlation with Pro-environmental Practices (r = .692) and Coping Strategies (r = .992). The regression analyses revealed that emotions explain a substantial variance in the older adult's quality of life (85.6%) and self-care (79.7%), as well as their pro-environmental actions (72%) and coping strategies (38.8%).<br><br>The research underscores climate change's significant emotional and psychological ramifications on older adults, yielding valuable insights for geriatric nursing practice. The findings can facilitate the development of precise interventions to promote self-care, bolster coping strategies, and advocate for pro-environmental conduct among older adults. Understanding these associations can contribute to the enhancement of quality of life and the fortification of resilience. The research implications may offer pivotal guidance for geriatric nursing education, clinical protocols, and community initiatives dedicated to fortifying older adults' mental well-being, contending with the repercussions of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39591716, year = {2024}, author = {Yue, F and Liu, D and Xiong, L and Chen, J and Chen, H and Yin, J}, title = {Understanding the roles of climate change, land use and land cover change and water diversion project in modulating water- and carbon-use efficiency in Han River Basin.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {373}, number = {}, pages = {123445}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123445}, pmid = {39591716}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Water-use efficiency (WUE) and carbon-use efficiency (CUE) are critical indicators of ecosystem function and hydrologic processes, reflecting the water-carbon flux exchange rate. Climatic variables, land use and land cover change (LUCC) and water diversion project (WDP) have altered water-carbon cycle; however, their roles in modulating WUE and CUE remain uncertain. To explore these effects, a framework is proposed and Han River basin (HRB) in China is selected as a case study including the data sets from both remote sensing and in situ observations during 2000-2020. The process-based Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System model and a supervised machine learning model are applied to simulate the impacts of climatic variables, LUCC and WDP on WUE and CUE, which are conducted by designing four experiments. We find that no significant WUE and CUE trends attributed to contrasting trends in the dry (October to March) and wet (April to September) seasons. Temperature variations greatly affect WUE and CUE, with WUE decreasing in the wet season and increasing in the dry season due to minimum temperature changes. LUCC has litter impacts on WUE and CUE changes. From 2014 to 2020, the middle route of the South-to-North WDP decreased WUE by 0.22 gCkg[-1]H2O in the middle-low HRB's wet season, slightly affecting CUE. Seasonal CUE was stable, with the largest decrease of 0.04 in the upper HRB during the wet season. The WDP also increased WUE sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures, while CUE sensitivities remained constant. Our case study has proven that the proposed framework is an effective way to understand the roles of climate change and WDP in modulating WUE and CUE.}, }
@article {pmid39591675, year = {2024}, author = {Shi, Y and Liu, Y and Shan, X and Chen, Y and Jin, X and Han, Q and Pakhomov, EA}, title = {Climate change induced first record of Porpita porpita (Linnaeus, 1758) in the Yellow Sea, China.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {210}, number = {}, pages = {117333}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117333}, pmid = {39591675}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {In August 2021, the blue button Porpita porpita, typically found in tropical and subtropical waters, was observed for the first time in the Yellow Sea. This study aimed to investigate the potential causes by analyzing the zooplankton community structure and the effects of water currents. The three stations, where P. porpita were recorded, were influenced by a warm and saline water tongue. The intruding current, which intensified during a La Niña event, also shaped the zooplankton community structure and distribution patterns. This research extends the known geographical distribution of P. porpita. The first observation of P. porpita in the Yellow Sea is likely attributable to the impacts of southeasterly winds and brought about by the intruding current, potentially suggesting ongoing region "tropicalization". Future studies will need to conduct a comprehensive analysis of additional surveys to better understand how the Yellow Sea pelagic ecosystem responds to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39591627, year = {2024}, author = {Dunn, JA and Grekin, P and Darnton, JB and Soth, S and Austin, EJ and Woolworth, S and Bhatraju, EP and Gojic, A and Williams, EC and Hallgren, KA and Tsui, JI}, title = {Disruption of Opioid Treatment Program Services Due to an Extreme Weather Event: An Example of Climate Change Effects on the Health of Persons Who Use Drugs.}, journal = {Journal of addiction medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/ADM.0000000000001403}, pmid = {39591627}, issn = {1935-3227}, abstract = {Climate change and the opioid epidemic in combination may pose significant challenges for individuals with opioid use disorder due to potential disruptions in access to essential addiction treatment services caused by extreme weather events. Despite concerns over the escalating health impacts of climate change, limited research has documented and explored the vulnerability of patients enrolled in opioid treatment programs to disruptions caused by climate change and particularly extreme cold events. In this commentary, we describe the impact of a catastrophic flooding event during record-setting cold temperatures at an opioid treatment program in Seattle, WA. By examining this event, we highlight the potential vulnerabilities the methadone treatment infrastructure faces regarding climate change and future extreme weather events. In doing so, we hope to draw attention to a critical need for research that describes, plans for, and addresses disruptions to opioid use disorder treatment resulting from climate change-related weather events.}, }
@article {pmid39590496, year = {2024}, author = {Xiao, K and Ling, L and Deng, R and Huang, B and Cao, Y and Wu, Q and Ning, H and Chen, H}, title = {Projecting the Potential Global Distribution of Sweetgum Inscriber, Acanthotomicus suncei (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) Concerning the Host Liquidambar styraciflua Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {39590496}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2024AFB534//Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province/ ; 202206010019//Key Projects of Guangzhou of Science and Technology Plan/ ; }, abstract = {Acanthotomicus suncei is a newly discovered bark beetle in China that significantly threatens the American sweetgum Liquidambar styraciflua. In recent years, this pest has spread from its original habitat to many surrounding cities, causing substantial economic and ecological losses. Considering the wide global distribution of its host, Liquidambar styraciflua, this pest is likely to continue to spread and expand. Once the pest colonizes a new climatically suitable area, the consequences could be severe. Therefore, we employed the CLIMEX and Random Forests model to predict the potential suitable distribution of A. suncei globally. The results showed that A. suncei was mainly distributed in Southern China, in South Hokkaido in Japan, Southern USA, the La Plata Plain in South America, southeastern Australia, and the northern Mediterranean; these areas are located in subtropical monsoon, monsoonal humid climates, or Mediterranean climate zones. Seasonal rainfall, especially in winter, is a key environmental factor that affects the suitable distribution of A. suncei. Under future climates, the total suitable area of A. suncei is projected to decrease to a certain extent. However, changes in its original habitat require serious attention. We found that A. suncei exhibited a spreading trend in Southwest, Central, and Northeast China. Suitable areas in some countries in Southeast and South Asia bordering China are also expected to show an increased distribution. The outward spread of this pest via sea transportation cannot be ignored. Hence, quarantine efforts should be concentrated in high-suitability regions determined in this study to protect against the occurrence of hosts that may contain A. suncei, thereby avoiding its long-distance spread. Long-term sentinel surveillance and control measures should be carried out as soon as A. suncei is detected, especially in regions with high suitability. Thus, our findings establish a theoretical foundation for quarantine and control measures targeting A. suncei.}, }
@article {pmid39590441, year = {2024}, author = {Rahimi, E and Jung, C}, title = {A New SDM-Based Approach for Assessing Climate Change Effects on Plant-Pollinator Networks.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects15110842}, pmid = {39590441}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {RS-2023-00232847//RDA Korea/ ; NRF-2018R1A6A1A03024862//National Research Foundation of Korea/ ; }, abstract = {Current methods for studying the effects of climate change on plants and pollinators can be grouped into two main categories. The first category involves using species distribution models (SDMs) to generate habitat suitability maps, followed by applying climate change scenarios to predict the future distribution of plants and pollinators separately. The second category involves constructing interaction matrices between plants and pollinators and then either randomly removing species or selectively removing generalist or specialist species, as a way to estimate how climate change might affect the plant-pollinator network. The primary limitation of the first approach is that it examines plant and pollinator distributions separately, without considering their interactions within the context of a pollination network. The main weakness of the second approach is that it does not accurately predict climate change impacts, as it arbitrarily selects species to remove without knowing which species will truly shift, decline, or increase in distribution due to climate change. Therefore, a new approach is needed to bridge the gap between these two methods while avoiding their specific limitations. In this context, we introduced an innovative approach that first requires the creation of binary climate suitability maps for plants and pollinators, based on SDMs, for both the current and future periods. This step aligns with the first category of methods mentioned earlier. To assess the effects of climate change within a network framework, we consider species co-overlapping in a geographic matrix. For this purpose, we developed a Python program that overlays the binary distribution maps of plants and pollinators, generating interaction matrices. These matrices represent potential plant-pollinator interactions, with a '0' indicating no overlap and a '1' where both species coincide in the same cell. As a result, for each cell within the study area, we can construct interaction matrices for both the present and future periods. This means that for each cell, we can analyze at least two pollination networks based on species co-overlap. By comparing the topology of these matrices over time, we can infer how climate change might affect plant-pollinator interactions at a fine spatial scale. We applied our methodology to Chile as a case study, generating climate suitability maps for 187 plant species and 171 pollinator species, resulting in 2906 pollination networks. We then evaluated how climate change could affect the network topology across Chile on a cell-by-cell basis. Our findings indicated that the primary effect of climate change on pollination networks is likely to manifest more significantly through network extinctions, rather than major changes in network topology.}, }
@article {pmid39589787, year = {2024}, author = {Martínez-Lüscher, J and Matus, JT and Gomès, E and Pascual, I}, title = {Toward understanding grapevine responses to climate change: a multistress and holistic approach.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erae482}, pmid = {39589787}, issn = {1460-2431}, abstract = {Recent research has extensively covered the effects of climate change factors, such as elevated CO2, rising temperatures and water deficit, on grapevine (Vitis spp.) biology. However, the assessment of the impacts of multiple climate change-related stresses on this crop remains complex due to the large number of interactive effects among environmental factors and the regulatory mechanisms that underlie these effects. Consequently, there is a substantial discrepancy between the number of studies conducted with a single or two factors simultaneously, and those with a more holistic approach. This review focuses on how climate change factors will coexist across the viticultural areas of the globe and summarises the main interactive mechanisms affecting crop performance. We highlight how the rise in temperatures will be enhanced when dealing with specific periods, such as the ripening months. Changes in crop phenology in response to temperature have been a major focus of most studies. However, how these physiological shifts may result in deleterious effects on yield and quality deserves further research. Rising temperatures will most certainly continue to represent the most imminent threat to viticulture due to its effects on grape phenology, composition and crop water requirements. Nevertheless, elevated CO2 may offer some relief through increased water use efficiency, as recent studies have shown. Within the repertoire of regulatory mechanisms that plants possess, hormones play a major role explaining the effects of combined stresses due to their crosstalk. In fact, growth regulators fine tune stress responses depending on the multiple stresses present. The paper focuses on the multistress responses mediated by ABA and jasmonate, and on the intricate interconnections of signalling among the different plant hormones.}, }
@article {pmid39588645, year = {2024}, author = {Khraishah, H and Ostergard, RL and Nabi, SR and De Alwis, D and Alahmad, B}, title = {Climate Change and Cardiovascular Disease: Who Is Vulnerable?.}, journal = {Arteriosclerosis, thrombosis, and vascular biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1161/ATVBAHA.124.318681}, pmid = {39588645}, issn = {1524-4636}, abstract = {Climate change involves a shift in earth's climate indicators over extended periods of time due to human activity. Anthropogenic air pollution has resulted in trapping heat, contributing to global warming, which contributes to worsening air pollution through facilitating oxidizing of air constituents. It is becoming more evident that the effects of climate change, such as air pollution and ambient temperatures, are interconnected with each other and other environmental factors. While the relationship between climate change components and cardiovascular disease is well documented in the literature, their interaction with one another along with individuals' biological and social risk factors is yet to be elucidated. In this review, we summarize that pathophysiological mechanisms by ambient temperatures directly affect cardiovascular health and describe the most vulnerable subgroups, defined by age, sex, race, and socioeconomic factors. Finally, we provide guidance on the importance of integrating climate, environmental, social, and health data into common platforms to inform researchers and policies.}, }
@article {pmid39588352, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, T and Cai, H and Zhang, G}, title = {Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of Endangered and Endemic Changnienia amoena (Orchidaceae) Using Ensemble Modeling and Gap Analysis in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {e70636}, pmid = {39588352}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change has significant impacts on the distribution of orchids. The endemic and endangered orchids are more susceptible to climate change than widely distributed orchids. To date, little is known concerning the response of endangered Changnienia amoena, endemic to China, to different climate scenarios. Here, we build an ensemble model comprising random forest model, maximum entropy model, and gradient boosting model in Biomod2 package to project its potential distribution in China, evaluate its current protective effectiveness, and identify its conservation gaps in China by determining the C. amoena population range within the natural protected areas. The outcomes showed that the four key environmental factors influencing its distribution were mean diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature seasonality, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. This orchid was currently distributed mainly in southern Anhui, central and western Hubei, western Hunan, southern Shaanxi, and eastern Sichuan province. The total suitable area of C. amoena was 58.33 × 10[4] km[2], only accounting for 6.08% of China's total territory, which is larger than known. However, only 4.48% of the suitable area is located within national nature reserves and 3.33% within provincial nature reserves, respectively. During the last inter glacial and mid-holocene, its suitable areas were larger than the current. Under six future climate scenarios, its suitable areas may decrease averagely by 2.26% relative to the current, with severe habitat fragmentation. Collectively, the centroid of C. amoena is expected to shift towards the southeast in the future. Therefore, our findings demonstrate that climate change has an adverse effect on its potential distribution. We recommend expanding protected areas or establishing new conservation sites for C. amoena in China. Furthermore, our study can help to inform the development of conservation management strategies for other endangered Chinese endemic orchids under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39588015, year = {2024}, author = {Hundal, H}, title = {Climate change and health: a focal point for medical education.}, journal = {Canadian medical education journal}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {166}, doi = {10.36834/cmej.79438}, pmid = {39588015}, issn = {1923-1202}, }
@article {pmid39588005, year = {2024}, author = {Namyatova, AA and Dzhelali, PA and Tyts, VD and Popkov, AA}, title = {Climate change effect on the widely distributed Palearctic plant bug species (Insecta: Heteroptera: Miridae).}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {e18377}, pmid = {39588005}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; *Heteroptera/physiology/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Asia ; Temperature ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Insects are poikilothermic organisms and temperature increase usually accelerates their development rates, population and distribution area growth. Therefore, it is assumed that global warming can be beneficial for the pests and other widespread species at least in the relatively cool temperate zones. However, climate change's effect on the widespread species in the Palearctic remains poorly studied. This work was performed on three plant bug species (Insecta: Heteroptera: Miridae), at present inhabiting Europe and Asia. Liocoris tripustulatus is known from the Western Palearctic, Lygocoris pabulinus occupies the territories from Western Europe to South Asia, Lygus punctatus is distributed from Northern Europe to the Far East. In this paper, it is tested whether temperature rise is positively connected with the area of preferred climatic conditions for those species, and explores the particular climatic variables which can be limiting for the distribution of those species. Maxent software was used for the environmental niche modeling and to find the variables with significant contribution to the climatic models for the studied species. Based on those models, areas with preferred climatic conditions over different periods were calculated in QGIS. Principal component analysis and logistic regression were performed to find the variables highly contributing to the differences between the species. The results contradict the assumption that temperature growth alone can be a predictor for the widespread species and pest distribution range change. All species differ in suitable climatic conditions and their area dynamics in time, and the temperature affects each species differently. Only Liocoris tripustulatus might significantly expand its distribution area by 2070 due to the climate change. The areas in Asia and above the polar circle will be more suitable by that time for all three species than now. However, conditions in Europe might be less suitable for Lygocoris pabulinus and Lygus punctatus in the future. Both, temperature and precipitation variables, can be important for shaping distribution of Liocoris tripustulatus and Lygocoris pabulinus. Mean annual temperature and temperature in winter, most probably, limit the distribution of at least Liocoris tripsutulatus and Lygus punctatus, but changes in this variable affect those two species differently.}, }
@article {pmid39587814, year = {2024}, author = {Sümen, A and Kublay, Y and Adibelli, D}, title = {Evaluation of Adult Individuals' Climate Change Concern and Mental Well-Being Levels in Türkiye: A Descriptive and Correlational Study.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13493}, pmid = {39587814}, issn = {1525-1446}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to determine the relationship between climate change concerns and mental well-being levels in adult individuals.<br><br>DESIGN: A descriptive and correlational study.<br><br>SAMPLE: The study was conducted with 513 adult individuals who applied to primary healthcare institutions between May and October 2022 in T&#xfc;rkiye.<br><br>MEASUREMENTS: The research data were collected face-to-face using an introductory information form, the Climate Change Worry Scale (CCWS), and the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-Being Scale (WEMWBS).<br><br>RESULTS: Among the occupations of the adults participating in the survey, the group most affected by climate change was greenhouse cultivation with 30.8%. The top three most common events experienced by the participants in the study are forest fire (40.6%), earthquake (29.2%), and flood (19.7%). In the study, the mean CCWS score of adults was 33.92 &#xb1; 10.27 and the mean WEMWBS score was 50.20 &#xb1; 11.88. A positive correlation was found between the total, anxiety, and feeling of helplessness sub-dimensions of the CCWS and the mean score of WEMWBS (p < 0.001). The mean scores of CCWS and WEMWBS of the participants who stated that they experienced an extraordinary event related to climate change, who had a relative who experienced these events, who followed these events from the media, and the mean scores of CCWS of those who experienced these events themselves were found to be significantly higher (p < 0.05). The mean scores of CCWS and WEMWBS were higher for those who experienced forest fire and flood disasters; CCWS for those who experienced tornado; and WEMWBS for those who experienced earthquake and storm/hurricane (p < 0.05).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: One of the most important results of the study is that there is a positive relationship between the sub-dimensions of helplessness due to climate concern and the level of mental well-being. It is important to increase climate change awareness activities at individual and community levels.}, }
@article {pmid39587060, year = {2024}, author = {Szinai, JK and Yates, D and Sánchez-Pérez, PA and Staadecker, M and Kammen, DM and Jones, AD and Hidalgo-Gonzalez, P}, title = {Climate change and its influence on water systems increases the cost of electricity system decarbonization.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {10050}, pmid = {39587060}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {DE-SC0016605//U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)/ ; }, abstract = {The electric sector simultaneously faces two challenges: decarbonization to mitigate, and adaptation to manage, the impacts of climate change. In many regions, these challenges are compounded by an interdependence of electricity and water systems, with water needed for hydropower generation and electricity for water provision. Here, we couple detailed water and electricity system models to evaluate how the Western Interconnection grid can both adapt to climate change and develop carbon-free generation by 2050, while accounting for interactions and climate vulnerabilities of the water sector. We find that by 2050, due to climate change, annual regional electricity use could grow by up to 2% from cooling and water-related electricity demand, while total annual hydropower generation could decrease by up to 23%. To adapt, we show that the region may need to build up to 139 GW of additional generating capacity between 2030 and 2050, equivalent to nearly thrice California's peak demand, and could incur up to $150 billion (+7%) in extra costs.}, }
@article {pmid39586449, year = {2024}, author = {Lin, Y and Gabrielsen, GW and Lu, Z and Huang, Q and Huang, P and Ke, H and Cai, M}, title = {Local Contributions and Climate Change Effects on Organochlorine Pesticide Levels in Soil and Sediments in Svalbard.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {125386}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2024.125386}, pmid = {39586449}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {The Arctic region, including Svalbard, faces unique environmental challenges from the presence and persistence of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), pollutants known for their long-range atmospheric transport and potential local sources. In Svalbard, the melting of sea ice and glaciers due to climate change may release OCPs trapped over decades, while human activities in the area could contribute additional local contamination. This study aimed to identify and quantify different sources of OCPs in soil and marine sediments at Svalbard. Samples were collected from Kongsfjorden, Rijpfjorden, and in Ny-Ålesund. The concentrations of 23 OCPs in sediments sampled were in the range of 0.36 to 0.90 ng/g, which were lower than those in the soils from Ny-Ålesund (0.28 ng/g to 3.6 ng/g). The highest OCP levels were detected at locations near the research station in Ny-Ålesund, where local contamination from research activities, mining, and dumpsites could occur. Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) were the most prominent compound, followed by various DDTs and HCHs. Dignostic ratios and the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model were employed to determine the primary sources of OCPs. The results from modeling showed that historically used pollutants were the primary contributor, accounting for 90% of OCPs present, while recently input OCPs were a minor contributor. However, newly input pollutants significantly contributed to HCHs (43%). It is suggested that the contribution of legacy OCPs mainly comes from the melting of sea ice and glaciers. This was especially true for Rijpfjorden (95%), while it was also significant for Kongsfjorden (55%). The local contamination and fresh inputs played a substantial role in the area near the research station in Ny-Ålesund. The study emphasizes the importance of secondly source, especially the role of melting sea ice and glaciers as well as local contaminations as sources of OCPs in Svalbard's marine sediment, which highlight the urgent need to address the impact of climate change on the Arctic environment.}, }
@article {pmid39584747, year = {2024}, author = {Jackson, JS and Slay, SL and Tarter, SL}, title = {Climate Change Impact on Outdoor Organizations Today.}, journal = {Wilderness &amp; environmental medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {10806032241296526}, doi = {10.1177/10806032241296526}, pmid = {39584747}, issn = {1545-1534}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Outdoor recreation and tourism providers, education programs, and outdoor recreation facilities are experiencing the effects of climate change and severe weather firsthand. This research assessed the impact that climate change was having on these operations in 2023.<br><br>METHODS: Respondents from 127 outdoor organizations completed an online survey assessing the impacts of climate change and severe weather. Any outdoor operation that owed a duty of care to clients who they take outdoors or host at their facilities was invited to participate. This included outdoor tourism and recreation providers, outdoor education programs (both school and expedition based), groups involved in conservation work, and facilities such as parks, ski areas, and other outdoor recreation facilities. Respondents were from Canada's far north to Mexico, with 14% from further international locations.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change is having moderate to serious impacts on outdoor operations. Extreme heat and air quality were of primary concern, with storm event flooding, wildfires, snowpack, and changes in the ranges of disease-carrying insects top concerns. Fewer than half the operations have established criteria to aid in decision making, yet most had to revise operational plans in 2023 due to extreme weather.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There was pervasive uncertainty regarding decisions involving extreme heat and air quality, particularly the short-term health impacts on clients and the long-term health impacts on workers. There was uncertainty regarding trusted sources for guidance and the many overlapping or contradictory jurisdictional recommendations. Practical direction is required for operations and decision makers, as is further research specific to this sector's needs.}, }
@article {pmid39583903, year = {2024}, author = {Nybo, L and Flouris, AD}, title = {Temperature: A frontier journal in cross-scientific approaches to combat climate change.}, journal = {Temperature (Austin, Tex.)}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {299-301}, pmid = {39583903}, issn = {2332-8940}, }
@article {pmid39582854, year = {2024}, author = {Shikhani, M and Feldbauer, J and Ladwig, R and Mercado-Bettín, D and Moore, TN and Gevorgyan, A and Misakyan, A and Mi, C and Schultze, M and Boehrer, B and Shatwell, T and Barfus, K and Rinke, K}, title = {Combining a Multi-Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi-Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan.}, journal = {Water resources research}, volume = {60}, number = {11}, pages = {e2023WR036511}, pmid = {39582854}, issn = {0043-1397}, abstract = {Global warming is shifting the thermal dynamics of lakes, with resulting climatic variability heavily affecting their mixing dynamics. We present a dual ensemble workflow coupling climate models with lake models. We used a large set of simulations across multiple domains, multi-scenario, and multi GCM- RCM combinations from CORDEX data. We forced a set of multiple hydrodynamic lake models by these multiple climate simulations to explore climate change impacts on lakes. We also quantified the contributions from the different models to the overall uncertainty. We employed this workflow to investigate the effects of climate change on Lake Sevan (Armenia). We predicted for the end of the 21st century, under RCP 8.5, a sharp increase in surface temperature (4.3 ± 0.7 K) and substantial bottom warming (1.7 ± 0.7 K) , longer stratification periods (+55 days) and disappearance of ice cover leading to a shift in mixing regime. Increased insufficient cooling during warmer winters points to the vulnerability of Lake Sevan to climate change. Our workflow leverages the strengths of multiple models at several levels of the model chain to provide a more robust projection and at the same time a better uncertainty estimate that accounts for the contributions of the different model levels to overall uncertainty. Although for specific variables, for example, summer bottom temperature, single lake models may perform better, the full ensemble provides a robust estimate of thermal dynamics that has a high transferability so that our workflow can be a blueprint for climate impact studies in other systems.}, }
@article {pmid39582513, year = {2024}, author = {Le Souëf, PN and Adachi, Y and Anastasiou, E and Ansotegui, IJ and Badellino, HA and Banzon, T and Beltrán, CP and D'Amato, G and El-Sayed, ZA and Gómez, RM and Hossny, E and Kalayci, &#xd6; and Morais-Almeida, M and Nieto-Garcia, A and Peden, DB and Phipatanakul, W and Wang, JY and Wan, IJ and Wong, G and Xepapadaki, P and Papadopoulos, NG}, title = {Global change, climate change, and asthma in children: Direct and indirect effects - A WAO Pediatric Asthma Committee Report.}, journal = {The World Allergy Organization journal}, volume = {17}, number = {11}, pages = {100988}, pmid = {39582513}, issn = {1939-4551}, abstract = {The twenty-first century has seen a fundamental shift in disease epidemiology with anthropogenic environmental change emerging as the likely dominant factor affecting the distribution and severity of current and future human disease. This is especially true of allergic diseases and asthma with their intimate relationship with the natural environment. Climate change-related variables including increased ambient temperature, heat waves, extreme weather events, air pollution, and rainfall distribution, all can directly affect asthma in children, but each of these variables also indirectly affects asthma via alterations in pollen production and release, outdoor allergen exposure or the microbiome. Air pollution, with its many and varied respiratory consequences, is likely to have the greatest effect, as it has increased globally due to rapid increases in fossil fuel combustion, global population, crowding, and megacities, as well as forest burning and trees succumbing to an increasingly hostile environment. Human activities have also caused substantial deterioration of the global microbiome with reductions in biodiversity for molds, bacteria, and viruses. Reduced microbiome diversity has, in turn, been associated with increases in Th2 allergic responses and allergic disease. The collective effect of these changes has already shifted allergy and asthma disease patterns. Given that changes in climate have been relatively small to date, the unavoidable, much greater shifts in climate in the future are concerning. Determining the relative scale of the direct versus indirect effects of climate change variables is needed if effective avoidance and adaptive measures are to be implemented. This would also require much more basic, epidemiological, and clinical research to understand the causal mechanisms, the most relevant climate factors involved, the regions most affected and, most importantly, effective and actionable adaptation measures. We suggest that allergy and respiratory health workers should follow current guidance to reduce present risks related to climate change and watch for new recommendations to reduce future risks. Since the respiratory system is the one most affected by climate change, they also need to call for more research in this area and show strong leadership in advocating for urgent action to protect children by reducing or reversing factors that have led to our deteriorating climate.}, }
@article {pmid39582375, year = {2024}, author = {Mechelli, A and Baecker, L and Bakolis, I and Stewart, R and Gasparrini, A and Smythe, M and White, M and Bridge, N}, title = {Climate change and mental health: overview of UK policy and regulatory frameworks to stimulate and inform future research and practice.}, journal = {The British journal of psychiatry : the journal of mental science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-6}, doi = {10.1192/bjp.2024.216}, pmid = {39582375}, issn = {1472-1465}, support = {Wellcome Climate Impacts Award (Grant Ref: 228033//WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {In the context of climate change, the impacts of extreme weather events are increasingly recognised as a significant threat to mental health in the UK. As clinicians and researchers with an interest in mental health, we have a collective responsibility to help understand and mitigate these impacts. To achieve this, however, it is vital to have an appreciation of the relevant policy and regulatory frameworks. In this feature article, a collaboration amongst mental health and policy experts, we provide an overview of the integration of mental health within current climate policies and regulations in the UK, including gaps and opportunities. We argue that current policy and regulatory frameworks are lacking in coverage, ambition, detail and implementation, as increases in weather extremes and their negative impacts on mental health outpace action. For example, across current national and local climate policies, there is almost no reference to the impacts of extreme weather events on mental health. Whilst alarming, this provides scope for future research to fill evidence gaps and inform policy and regulatory change. We call for mental health and policy experts to work together to improve our understanding of underlying mechanisms and develop practical interventions, helping to bring mental health within climate policy and regulatory frameworks.}, }
@article {pmid39582252, year = {2024}, author = {Griffiths, JS and Sasaki, M and Neylan, IP and Kelly, MW}, title = {The Potential for Experimental Evolution to Uncover Trade-Offs Associated With Anthropogenic and Climate Change Adaptation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {e17584}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17584}, pmid = {39582252}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Biological Evolution ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Phenotype ; }, abstract = {Evolutionary responses to climate change may incur trade-offs due to energetic constraints and mechanistic limitations, which are both influenced by environmental context. Adaptation to one stressor may result in life history trade-offs, canalization of phenotypic plasticity, and the inability to tolerate other stressors, among other potential costs. While trade-offs incurred during adaptation are difficult to detect in natural populations, experimental evolution can provide important insights by measuring correlated responses to selection as populations adapt to changing environments. However, studies testing for trade-offs have generally lagged behind the growth in the use of experimental evolution in climate change studies. We argue that the important insights generated by the few studies that have tested for trade-offs make a strong case for including these types of measurements in future studies of climate adaptation. For example, there is emerging consensus from experimental evolution studies that tolerance and tolerance plasticity trade-offs are an often-observed outcome of adaptation to anthropogenic change. In recent years, these types of studies have been strengthened by the use of sequencing of experimental populations, which provides promising new avenues for understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying observed phenotypic trade-offs.}, }
@article {pmid39581955, year = {2024}, author = {Schlaepfer, DR and Chambers, JC and Urza, AK and Hanberry, BB and Brown, JL and Board, DI and Campbell, SB and Clause, KJ and Crist, MR and Bradford, JB}, title = {Declining ecological resilience and invasion resistance under climate change in the sagebrush region, United States.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e3065}, doi = {10.1002/eap.3065}, pmid = {39581955}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//USGS Ecosystems Mission Area Land Management Research Program/ ; //Rocky Mountain Research Station/ ; PL-117-58//Section 40804 Ecosystem Restoration of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (PL-117-58)/ ; //U.S. Bureau of Land Management/ ; //USGS Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center/ ; }, abstract = {In water-limited dryland ecosystems of the Western United States, climate change is intensifying the impacts of heat, drought, and wildfire. Disturbances often lead to increased abundance of invasive species, in part, because dryland restoration and rehabilitation are inhibited by limited moisture and infrequent plant recruitment events. Information on ecological resilience to disturbance (recovery potential) and resistance to invasive species can aid in addressing these challenges by informing long-term restoration and conservation planning. Here, we quantified the impacts of projected future climate on ecological resilience and invasion resistance (R&amp;R) in the sagebrush region using novel algorithms based on ecologically relevant and climate-sensitive predictors of climate and ecological drought. We used a process-based ecohydrological model to project these predictor variables and resulting R&amp;R indicators for two future climate scenarios and 20 climate models. Results suggested widespread future R&amp;R decreases (24%-34% of the 1.16 million km[2] study area) that are generally consistent among climate models. Variables related to rising temperatures were most strongly linked to decreases in R&amp;R indicators. New continuous R&amp;R indices quantified responses to climate change; particularly useful for areas without projected change in the R&amp;R category but where R&amp;R still may decrease, for example, some of the areas with a historically low R&amp;R category. Additionally, we found that areas currently characterized as having high sagebrush ecological integrity had the largest areal percentage with expected declines in R&amp;R in the future, suggesting continuing declines in sagebrush ecosystems. One limitation of these R&amp;R projections was relatively novel future climatic conditions in particularly hot and dry areas that were underrepresented in the training data. Including more data from these areas in future updates could further improve the reliability of the projections. Overall, these projected future declines in R&amp;R highlight a growing challenge for natural resource managers in the region, and the resulting spatially explicit datasets provide information that can improve long-term risk assessments, prioritizations, and climate adaptation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid39581565, year = {2024}, author = {Nunes, ML and da Cunha, AJLA}, title = {Neurodevelopment and climate change.}, journal = {Jornal de pediatria}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jped.2024.10.005}, pmid = {39581565}, issn = {1678-4782}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This article aims to assess the impact of climate change, a reality already presents in the environment, on the neurodevelopment of both neurotypical and atypical children.<br><br>DATA SOURCES: A narrative review of the literature was carried out based on articles available in the PubMed database, published in the last five years using the keywords neurodevelopment and climate change, as well as websites of organizations dedicated to childhood such as UNICEF, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Center for Developing Childhood at Harvard University.<br><br>SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: Children and adolescents are more directly affected by the effects of climate change due to their developmental stage and greater vulnerability. Prolonged exposure to air pollutants can affect brain development, resulting in cognitive and behavioral problems. Extreme weather events, such as floods, cyclones, and heat waves, can destroy essential infrastructure such as schools and hospitals, interrupting the educational process and access to health care. Changes in rainfall patterns and extreme droughts can affect food production, leading to malnutrition and food insecurity. Direct experience of natural disasters can cause stress and psychological trauma, affecting children's emotional and mental well-being.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Studies clearly demonstrate the potential impact of climate change on the neurodevelopment and mental health of children and adolescents. This topic should be part of the current agenda of pediatricians, not only treating the resulting illnesses but mainly acting on the front line and supporting proposals to attenuate the environmental disaster that has already occurred.}, }
@article {pmid39581564, year = {2024}, author = {Bustamante, MMDC}, title = {Climate change and children's health: resilience challenges for Brazil.}, journal = {Jornal de pediatria}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jped.2024.11.002}, pmid = {39581564}, issn = {1678-4782}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Three decades of evidence compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports is clear about the unequivocal impacts of humans on the global climate system are unequivocal and the wide range of effects on natural, social, and economic systems. Studies on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation present the current impact on health and future consequences under different climate and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. This article discusses some of the impacts of climate change on children's health which represents one of the most vulnerable groups.<br><br>SOURCES: Evidence was sourced from recent scientific papers and reports referring to the potential impacts on children's health associated with the extreme events in Brazil observed in Brazil between 2023 and 2024 (heat waves and droughts, wildfires, and floods).<br><br>SUMMARY OF THE FINDINGS: Besides global warming, climate change is associated with more frequent and intense extreme events such as droughts, floods, and wildfires. Children and adolescents are particularly vulnerable due to physiological characteristics, interaction with exposure factors, and because they will live longer under changing conditions. Climate change projections and the intensification of impacts for Brazil highlight the adaptation challenges related to the protection of children under a changing climate and the role of the preparation of the country's health system, educators, and parents.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The article underscores the need for collaboration among policymakers, health professionals, and educators, as well as the communities, to effectively address the adaptation challenges and build resilience to protect children against the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39581563, year = {2024}, author = {Veras, MM and Saldiva, PHN}, title = {Impact of air pollution and climate change on maternal, fetal and postnatal health.}, journal = {Jornal de pediatria}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jped.2024.10.006}, pmid = {39581563}, issn = {1678-4782}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Besides socioeconomic factors, environmental pollution, and climate change are contemporary threats to health. In this review, the authors present results from a recent comprehensive synthesis of existing research on the effects of air pollution and climate change on gestation, fetal development, and postnatal health.<br><br>DATA SOURCES: Findings from systematic reviews conducted over the past five years and available in PubMed were used.<br><br>SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: A vast and robust evidence exists on the association between air pollution exposures and negative outcomes. Gestational diabetes, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, preeclampsia, spontaneous abortion, and maternal postpartum depression are reported. Fetal development and postnatal health are also impaired by exposures; low birth weight is a common finding from studies worldwide, but there are increased risks for malformations and impairments in neurodevelopment. While there are fewer studies on factors related to climate change, there is sufficient evidence regarding the direct and indirect effects on maternal health and fetal development. Increased risks for prematurity, low birth, and emergency room visits are associated with higher temperatures. Asthma incidence and infectious respiratory disease risks are also influenced by extreme weather events. It is essential to recognize the profound impact that environmental factors, such as air pollution and climate change can have on maternal health, fetal development, and neonatal health.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The data presented underscores the significant risks that environmental pollution poses during gestation, influencing not only maternal health but also the short- and long-term well-being of the child.}, }
@article {pmid39580551, year = {2024}, author = {Morant, D and Rochera, C and Picazo, A and Miralles-Lorenzo, J and Camacho-Santamans, A and Camacho, A}, title = {Ecological status and type of alteration determine the C-balance and climate change mitigation capacity of Mediterranean inland saline shallow lakes.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {29065}, pmid = {39580551}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {FPU16/01444//Spanish Ministry of Science Innovation and Universities/ ; CGL2015-69557-R//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; }, abstract = {Saline shallow lakes may play an important role in carbon exchange with the atmosphere, but their alteration may change carbon balance and greenhouse gas emissions patterns. This study investigated the relationship between carbon metabolic processes and environmental factors, focusing on alterations in salinity, hydroperiod length, and trophic status. The results revealed that disruptions to natural salinity patterns, driven by hydrological changes and ecological degradation, enhanced carbon greenhouse gas emitting metabolisms. In contrast, well-preserved lakes demonstrated significantly higher carbon retention and climate mitigation capacities (-188 ± 412 g C m[-2] yr[-1]) compared to lakes with hydrological and trophic disturbances (-30 ± 141 g C m[-2] yr[-1]). These findings emphasize the relevance of the metabolic activity of saline shallow lakes and highlight the need for targeted management and restoration efforts to maximize their climate regulation potential. The insights gained from this study may also be applicable to similar ecosystems in other regions.}, }
@article {pmid39579524, year = {2024}, author = {Crosta, M and Cervini, C and Medina, A and Battilani, P}, title = {Impact of simulated climate change conditions on Aspergillus flavus biocontrol effectiveness in peanut-based medium and peanut seeds.}, journal = {International journal of food microbiology}, volume = {428}, number = {}, pages = {110981}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2024.110981}, pmid = {39579524}, issn = {1879-3460}, abstract = {Peanut is a legume widespread in the world, but its high susceptibility to Aspergillus flavus infection poses a significant challenge due to the risk of aflatoxin contamination. It is predicted that changing climatic conditions will result in warmer, drier periods with elevated CO2 levels, which promote the growth of A. flavus. The most effective pre-harvest mitigation strategy is the use of non-aflatoxigenic strains of biocontrol; however, future climatic conditions may influence the effectiveness of this practice. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess the impact of simulated climate change conditions on the efficacy of a non-aflatoxigenic A. flavus strain, the active agent of a biocontrol product, in reducing fungal growth and mycotoxin production. A range of temperature conditions (T = 25, 30, 35 °C), water activity (aw = 0.85, 0.90, 0.95) and CO2 concentration (400, 1000 ppm) were selected for investigation. The assay was conducted using three ratios of A. flavus spore suspensions (100 % aflatoxigenic, 100 % non-aflatoxigenic, 50/50 % aflatoxigenic:non-aflatoxigenic; 105 spores mL[-1]) inoculated in vitro on a peanut-based medium (PBM), and in situ on peanut seeds, and incubated for 10 days. Results of in vitro studies showed a significant influence of T and aw on fungal growth rates (μ), with a reduction when the aw decreased and T shifted from the fungus's optimum of 30 °C. The highest mycotoxin concentration was detected on PBM, with an aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) production by the aflatoxigenic strain in situ 50 % lower than in vitro. However, for all the treatments, the application of the biocontrol agent inhibited AFB1 production with a general reduction of 55 % in vitro and 71 % in situ, even though a significant increase in kojic acid production was observed. The effectiveness of the non-aflatoxigenic strain increased when T was raised up to 35 °C with higher AFB1 reductions both in vitro and in situ, of respectively 58 and 76 %. These observations provided the first evidence that climate change will not negatively influence the ability of the Italian A. flavus non-aflatoxigenic strain, which represents the biocontrol agent of the commercial product AF-X1, to reduce AFB1 contamination in peanuts.}, }
@article {pmid39579203, year = {2024}, author = {Thöne, M and Lask, J and Hennenlotter, J and Saar, M and Tsaur, I and Stenzl, A and Rausch, S}, title = {Potential impacts to human health from climate change: A comparative life-cycle assessment of single-use versus reusable devices flexible ureteroscopes.}, journal = {Urolithiasis}, volume = {52}, number = {1}, pages = {166}, pmid = {39579203}, issn = {2194-7236}, mesh = {Humans ; *Equipment Reuse ; *Ureteroscopes ; *Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Greenhouse Gases/analysis/adverse effects ; Disposable Equipment ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant global health challenge, with medical procedures contributing substantially to CO2 emissions. Urology, as part of the broader healthcare sector, has begun integrating Planetary Health concepts to address this issue. While earlier studies have focused on Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) of urological procedures, these evaluations remain data-dependent, and insights into intra-hospital emissions are limited. This study introduces a methodical approach for analyzing intra-institutional processes of LCA for single-use and reusable flexible ureterorenoscopes (fURS). The LCA method was applied to assess the greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalents, CO2-eq) generated across the life cycle of fURS, including production, use-phase, reprocessing, maintenance, and disposal. The study approximated the Global Warming Potential (GWP) per one-hour use and evaluated associated health impacts using the ReCiPe2016(H) method, which measures Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Results showed that for reusable fURS, assuming 133 usages per device and maintenance after every 11th use, each application generated 1.24 kg CO2-eq, equivalent to 1.15E-06 DALYs. In contrast, single-use fURS generated 4.93 kg CO2-eq and 4.57E-06 DALYs per application. The production and reprocessing stages were identified as having the greatest environmental and health impacts. For reusable fURS, electricity required during refurbishment and use phases was a key contributor, whereas the production phase accounted for most of the impact in single-use devices. Overall, singleuse fURS had a substantially higher potential environmental and health impact than their reusable counterparts. This study underscores the environmental and health impacts of ureterorenoscopy and highlights the importance of incorporating Planetary Health principles into healthcare practices. It provides a foundation for further analyses and research, aiming to drive transformative action in the healthcare sector toward sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid39578743, year = {2024}, author = {Wiskel, T and Miles, TT and Fonteyn, M and Stevens, K and Heberlein, C and Matthews-Trigg, N and Dresser, C and Bernstein, A}, title = {Frontline clinic perspectives on climate change, human health, and resilience: a national cross-sectional survey.}, journal = {BMC primary care}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {399}, pmid = {39578743}, issn = {2731-4553}, support = {A43939//Biogen/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; United States ; *Resilience, Psychological ; Primary Health Care ; Female ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Male ; Adult ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; Middle Aged ; Ambulatory Care Facilities ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Frontline clinics - primary care clinics that predominantly serve low-income and socially disadvantaged communities - are facing increasing impacts from climate-related extreme events. This study evaluated staff perspectives at frontline clinics on the health risks of climate change, the impacts of extreme events on their clinics and patients, and their motivators to improve climate resiliency.<br><br>METHODS: A national, cross-sectional survey was conducted of staff working at frontline clinics including administrators, case workers, and providers across the United States. Survey questions assessed clinic and respondent attributes, knowledge of health risks of climate change, preferences for climate change educational and operational resources, and clinic and patient climate impacts and resilience. The survey was distributed electronically to a convenience sample of primary care clinics and to the National Association of Community Health Centers (NACHC) and National Association of Free and Charitable Clinics (NAFC) listservs. Data was collected from September to November of 2021. Respondents were current staff who consented to the survey. Responses were collected via Qualtrics, and the statistical analysis was completed using Stata.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 430 surveys were completed representing clinics in 43 states. Most (82.0%) respondents reported human activities were causing climate change. Over half (52.8%) of respondents reported an operational disruption to their clinic from extreme events in the past 3 years, and another 54.4% had plans in place to address risks from extreme events. The most useful resources identified to improve operational resilience were checklists and planning guidance. Over half (52.0%) of respondents reported they were motivated to use these resources to improve clinic preparedness. Most (84.4%) providers and case workers reported that climate change impacted patient health, however only 36.2% discussed health risks with patients, with barriers including more pressing topics and time available. Another 55.7% of respondents reported they were motivated to learn ways to help patients prepare for extreme events.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate-related extreme events were reported to impact patient health and disrupt frontline clinic operations. Overcoming gaps in knowledge about climate change impacts on health and providing climate educational resources can engender motivation to improve clinic and patient resilience to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39577952, year = {2024}, author = {Sun, W and Zhu, Z and Wang, L and Ren, R and Wang, L and Usman, M and Wang, J and Zhu, Y and Liu, X and Jiu, S and Gallusci, P and Wang, S and Liu, R and Zhang, C}, title = {Icewine fingerprint involved in latitude under climate change.}, journal = {Food research international (Ottawa, Ont.)}, volume = {197}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {115305}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodres.2024.115305}, pmid = {39577952}, issn = {1873-7145}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Odorants/analysis ; *Volatile Organic Compounds/analysis ; China ; Fruit/chemistry ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Aroma plays a crucial role in determining icewine quality and influencing the profit of growers, but the influence of climate change on icewine sustainable production and the diversity of aroma volatiles in icewine among different regions are unknown. Here, we employed aroma volatiles of 8 Vidal icewines from 2 typical premium production regions (Liaoning in China and Ontario in Canada) and an emerging low-latitude mountainous area (Yunnan in China) to project future diversity and sustainability. We found that Ontario and Yunnan's icewines were characterized with intense apricot or peach and tropical fruit aromas, which was consistent with the excellent grade icewine around the world based on 225 icewine aroma datasets from 5 countries. Icewine from Liaoning was abundant with honey flavor. Moreover, projections suggested a northward trend of 3.5° N and 6° N in Ontario during near future (2021-2050) and far future (2070-2099) periods, respectively. However, Liaoning province might have more challenges for premium icewine production under the worst climate warming scenario. Notably, the lower latitude and higher altitude region, Yunnan province, would sustainable provide special premium icewine with a northward expansion of icewine production region to 28.5° N under climate change. The findings provide theoretical support in relieving climate change challenges to premium icewine availability and stability.}, }
@article {pmid39577913, year = {2024}, author = {Sisodiya, SM and Maslin, MA and Romanello, M and Hanna, MG}, title = {Effects of climate change on the brain: an environmental neurology perspective - Authors' reply.}, journal = {The Lancet. Neurology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {1186-1187}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-4422(24)00441-1}, pmid = {39577913}, issn = {1474-4465}, }
@article {pmid39577912, year = {2024}, author = {Reis, J and Buguet, A and Radomski, MW and Román, GC and Spencer, PS}, title = {Effects of climate change on the brain: an environmental neurology perspective.}, journal = {The Lancet. Neurology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {1185-1186}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-4422(24)00431-9}, pmid = {39577912}, issn = {1474-4465}, }
@article {pmid39577374, year = {2024}, author = {Paredes-Molina, FJ and Chaparro, OR and Navarro, JM and Büchner-Miranda, JA and Salas-Yanquin, LP and Cubillos, VM and Jaramillo, HN and Pechenik, JA and Averbuj, A and Bökenhans, V}, title = {Performance of Acanthina monodon juveniles under long-term exposure to predicted climate change conditions.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {204}, number = {}, pages = {106855}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106855}, pmid = {39577374}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {The increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere reduces the pH and raises the temperature of the oceans. The combination of both factors impacts the physiological responses and calcium carbonate structures of marine organisms. This study assessed the performance of the juvenile stage of the gastropod Acanthina monodon, after it was continuously exposed to treatments at two pCO2 levels (400 and 1200 μatm) at two temperatures (10 °C and 15 °C) during the periods of embryonic encapsulated development and the early post-hatching juvenile stage. Juvenile performance was evaluated by quantifying shell growth, survival, foot adhesion strength, shell breakage resistance, and oxygen consumption rates. The results indicate that the combination of increased temperature and decreased pH increased juvenile shell growth, while only the decrease in pH had a negative effect on shell strength. However, juveniles were able to attach more strongly to substrates following exposure to the higher temperature level. Furthermore, the interaction of treatments had no effect on the metabolic rate or survival of juveniles, suggesting a possible compensatory effect of the juveniles to the more adverse conditions to which they were exposed.}, }
@article {pmid39577328, year = {2024}, author = {MacLean, S and de Nicola, J and Cooper, K and Downey, H and Theobald, J and de Kleyn, L and Denham, T and Costello, E and Rickards, L}, title = {How does climate change impact people who use alcohol and other drugs? A scoping review of peer reviewed literature.}, journal = {The International journal on drug policy}, volume = {134}, number = {}, pages = {104649}, doi = {10.1016/j.drugpo.2024.104649}, pmid = {39577328}, issn = {1873-4758}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The world has experienced devastating extreme weather events, alongside slow-onset processes including increasing temperature means, that scientists agree are manifestations of human-induced climate change. Even with radical action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, effects of climate change will become increasingly severe.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The aim of this review was to classify impacts of climate change for people who use alcohol and other drugs (AoD), as reflected in peer reviewed literature.<br><br>METHOD: A scoping review was conducted to achieve this. Included studies involved a human population, a climate change related exposure, and an AoD outcome. Studies were published in English between 1998 and November 2023. Exposure events of interest included extreme heat, fires, storms, floods, droughts, and longer-term environmental changes. 8,204 studies were screened, with 82 included for data extraction and narrative analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Most papers describe increased AoD use, with smaller numbers showing decreased or unchanged substance use. Some studies identify unplanned withdrawal, changed drug markets, disrupted service access, specific physiological vulnerabilities of AoD users to extreme heat, and compounding effects on mental health. We note the relative absence of peer reviewed studies investigating impacts of climate change on AoD use in low-and middle-income countries. Further, few studies consider impacts that occur because of long-term or gradual climatic shifts such as environmental changes that are detrimental to livelihoods.<br><br>CONCLUSION: It is crucial to document effects of a changing climate on people who use AoD so that policy and services can meet future needs. We call for research to remedy gaps identified in this review.}, }
@article {pmid39576044, year = {2024}, author = {Aziz, M and Anjum, G}, title = {Transformative strategies for enhancing women's resilience to climate change: A policy perspective for low- and middle-income countries.}, journal = {Women's health (London, England)}, volume = {20}, number = {}, pages = {17455057241302032}, pmid = {39576044}, issn = {1745-5065}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Developing Countries ; *Women's Health ; *Empowerment ; Pregnancy ; Health Policy ; Resilience, Psychological ; Women's Rights ; }, abstract = {This policy paper advocates for a transformative strategy to address the disproportionate impact of climate change on women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), emphasizing the need to integrate gender considerations into climate resilience initiatives. Recognizing the multifaceted nature of women's vulnerabilities, the paper calls for the dismantling of discriminatory socio-cultural norms and the enhancement of women's capacities through digital health literacy, political empowerment, and the protection of sexual and reproductive health rights. Focusing on the health implications of climate change, particularly for pregnant women and newborns, the paper promotes a multi-sectoral approach that strengthens health systems and encourages community-based interventions. It underscores the importance of incorporating gender perspectives into climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, advocating for tailored health services in LMICs, and promoting women's active involvement in climate-related decision-making processes. The methodology involves a qualitative, expert, and narrative synthesis of existing literature and policy analysis. The paper synthesizes existing research and policy recommendations to argue for a comprehensive policy framework and backs it with case studies from LMICs. This framework recognizes the complex interplay between women's vulnerabilities and climate change, advocating for women's empowerment as central to climate resilience efforts in LMICs. By integrating gender perspectives, enhancing health services for women, and fostering international collaboration, it proposes a holistic approach to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on women's health and well-being. This approach not only acknowledges the specific challenges faced by women but also leverages their unique insights and experiences, positioning them as pivotal contributors to global climate resilience and sustainability efforts.}, }
@article {pmid39575137, year = {2024}, author = {Martins, FP and Paschoalotto, MAC and Closs, J and Bukowski, M and Veras, MM}, title = {The Double Burden: Climate Change Challenges for Health Systems.}, journal = {Environmental health insights}, volume = {18}, number = {}, pages = {11786302241298789}, pmid = {39575137}, issn = {1178-6302}, abstract = {Climate change presents significant challenges to human health and health systems, and there is a critical need for health systems to adapt and become more resilient in order to effectively mediate the impacts of climate change on population health. This paper analyzes existing academic literature to identify key themes, trends, and research gaps at the intersection of climate change and health systems. Utilizing a scoping review of 179 studies, we explore how health systems can enhance their resilience through effective governance, sustainable financing, resource generation, and adaptive service delivery. Our findings emphasize the importance of integrating climate considerations into health system governance, mobilizing innovative financial resources, and adapting infrastructure and workforce capacities to address climate-related health challenges. The study highlights the need for continued interdisciplinary research and targeted interventions to ensure health systems are equipped to promote equity and protect vulnerable populations in the face of climate change. These insights contribute to the development of climate-resilient health systems and identify crucial areas for future research.}, }
@article {pmid39571812, year = {2024}, author = {Martinez, A and Iglesias, G}, title = {Climate change and wind energy potential in South America.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {957}, number = {}, pages = {177675}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177675}, pmid = {39571812}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Wind energy is crucial in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and combating global warming. However, the economic viability of wind energy projects is tied to wind resources, which may be affected by climate change. The objective of this work is to investigate the evolution of wind energy resources in South America using the most up-to-date climate-change scenarios: the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Three scenarios are considered, corresponding to low, medium and high emissions pathways. A multi-model ensemble is constructed with Global Climate Models selected for their accuracy in the study region in a historical period. Results indicate that east of the Andes, in Brazil, Paraguay and Venezuela, substantial increases in average wind power density are expected, surpassing 100 % in certain areas and in the most pessimistic scenario (the fossil-fuelled development pathway). By contrast, significant reductions (up to ~50 %) are projected for certain areas west of the Andes: South Chile, Peru and the waters off West Colombia. South Chile has the windiest climate in the continent, which makes this reduction due to climate change all the more important. Even under the low-emissions scenario, the projected evolution in wind resources is relevant, which highlights the necessity of considering climate change in wind energy planning.}, }
@article {pmid39571314, year = {2024}, author = {Strauss, V and Paul, C and Dönmez, C and Burkhard, B}, title = {Carbon farming for climate change mitigation and ecosystem services - Potentials and influencing factors.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {372}, number = {}, pages = {123253}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123253}, pmid = {39571314}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Carbon Farming (CF) decreases atmospheric CO2 concentrations by increasing carbon stocks in soils and biomass. In addition to mitigating climate change, CF measures provide co-benefits through the supply of additional ecosystem services (ES). Integrating such benefits into a comprehensive assessment may increase the attractiveness of CF measures, increase adoption rates, and ultimately benefit climate and ecosystems. However, site-specific and measure-specific characteristics influence the impacts of CF measures. A comprehensive overview over CF impacts is lacking. We therefore analyzed six CF measures on cropland in the European temperate zone: (1) cover cropping, (2) introducing legumes or semi-perennial crops into crop rotations, (3) conversion to short rotation coppice, (4) agroforestry, (5) afforestation of marginal cropland, and (6) partial rewetting of drained organic soils. Through a structured literature review, we derived on-site climate change mitigation potentials, impacts on the supply of ES, and economic trade-offs, as well as influencing factors causing spatial heterogeneities. Our results show that the climate change mitigation potential varies strongly between and within CF measures. All measures can boost the supply of regulating ecosystem services, while trade-offs exist mainly with provisioning services and economic returns. Spatially heterogeneous effects in ES supply depend on local ES demand. As proof of concept, we mapped expected beneficial ES effects from 4 selected ES positively impacted by the measure (4) agroforestry in a GIS environment for Germany, as well as opportunity costs as an economic trade-off. The results suggest that strong co-benefits can be expected in areas where opportunity costs are high. Moreover, the CF measures with the highest climate change mitigation potential also imply the highest systemic change of the farm system. This constitutes a strong economic hurdle to implementation. We argue that payments for ES are needed to incentivize CF adoption and harness the beneficial effects on climate and ecosystems. Our findings provide a comprehensive view on the effect of CF measures and may support effective European climate change mitigation policy.}, }
@article {pmid39570995, year = {2024}, author = {Alemu, FM and Mengistu, YA and Wassie, AG}, title = {Factor productivity impacts of climate change and estimating the technical efficiency of cereal crop yields: Evidence from sub-Saharan African countries.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {11}, pages = {e0310989}, pmid = {39570995}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa South of the Sahara ; *Edible Grain/growth &amp; development ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; *Agriculture/methods ; Fertilizers ; Humans ; Crop Production/methods ; }, abstract = {The world aims to ensure environmental sustainability and consolidate agricultural factor productivity, yet the excruciating impact of climate change coincides and remains a persistent threat. Therefore, the study aims to estimate the technical efficiency of cereal crop yields and investigate the impacts of climate change on agricultural factor productivity. For this purpose, panel data from 35 sub-Saharan African countries between 2005 and 2020 was employed. For analysis, the pooled OLS and stochastic frontier models were employed. The results revealed that in the region, the average efficiency score for producing cereal crops between 2005 and 2020 was 83%. The stochastic frontier model results showed that labour contributed 51.5% and fertilizer contributed 5.7% to raising the technical efficiency of cereal crop yields, whereas arable land per hectare reduced the technical efficiency of cereal yields by 44.7%. The pooled OLS regression result showed that climate change proxies (CO2 and methane emissions) diminish land, labour, and fertilizers productivity at a 1% significance level, whereas GDP per capita boosts significantly the total factor productivity in agriculture. This confirmed how climate change reduced land, labour, and fertilizer input productivity. The results concluded that the region had a high level of technical efficiency; of which labour and fertilizer inputs contributed the largest share; however, their productivity has dwindled due to climate change. To increase cereal crop yield efficiency and limit the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural input productivity, the region should combine skilled and trained labour and fertilizer with sophisticated agriculture technologies, as well as adopt climate resistance technologies (weather- resistant variety seed and planting revolution mechanisms).}, }
@article {pmid39570336, year = {2024}, author = {Schoierer, J and Lehmann, H and Köster-Lange, J and Gerke, J}, title = {[Climate change-a health issue (also) for families and their young children?].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39570336}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {Children can only grow up healthy on a healthy planet. Climate change threatens their health through rising temperatures and extreme weather events. In Germany, average temperatures have risen, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves. This development particularly endangers children, whose thermoregulation is not yet fully developed. UV exposure increases the risk of skin cancer and eye damage. Extreme weather also negatively impacts children's mental health.Childcare, educational, and recreational facilities play a key role in managing the psychological and physical burdens of climate change. Resilient systems and facilities can promote stability and resilience and have a preventive effect. However, the adaptation of children's personal living context to climate change is still inadequate. It is essential to enhance the climate competence of those responsible in these environments through practical informational materials that enable them to not only be aware but also to actively establish protective measures. Health insurance companies can also play a crucial role in prevention by advising and supporting climate-friendly and health-promoting activities.Health promotion in environments with children has great potential to encourage climate-protective and climate-adaptive behavior and to establish it long term among children and families. Bringing about the necessary changes requires cross-sector collaboration between institutions, providers, authorities, health insurance companies, and civil society as well as between federal, state, and local governments.}, }
@article {pmid39567913, year = {2024}, author = {Cosh, SM and Ryan, R and Fallander, K and Robinson, K and Tognela, J and Tully, PJ and Lykins, AD}, title = {The relationship between climate change and mental health: a systematic review of the association between eco-anxiety, psychological distress, and symptoms of major affective disorders.}, journal = {BMC psychiatry}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {833}, pmid = {39567913}, issn = {1471-244X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Anxiety/psychology ; *Psychological Distress ; Mental Health ; Adult ; Female ; Male ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The adverse impacts of climate change on mental health is a burgeoning area, although findings are inconsistent. The emerging concept of eco-anxiety represents distress in relation to climate change and may be related to mental health. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between eco-anxiety with validated mental health outcomes, specifically psychological distress and symptoms of major affective disorders.<br><br>DESIGN: Systematic review.<br><br>METHODS: EBSCO, ProQuest, and Web of Science databases were searched to February 2024 for studies of adult samples quantifying eco-anxiety (exposure, i.e. fear, worry or anxiety in relation to climate change) and symptoms of psychological distress and major affective disorders (outcomes), as assessed by validated measures.<br><br>RESULTS: Full text review of 83 studies was performed, and k&#x2009;=&#x2009;35 studies were included in the review (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;45 667, 61% female, Mage 31.2 years). Consistently, eco-anxiety showed small to large positive correlations with mental health outcomes of psychological distress, depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms, and stress symptoms. However, results regarding post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms and pathological worry were mixed. Stronger associations were observed where eco-anxiety was operationalised as 'anxiety' rather than 'worry'.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Findings underscore that eco-anxiety is related to psychological burden. Greater consideration of eco-anxiety in assessment and treatment is needed in clinical practice and further policy development is warranted at the intersection of climate and health to address the mental health challenges posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39567901, year = {2024}, author = {Amberger, O and Lemke, D and Christ, A and Müller, H and Schwappach, D and Geraedts, M and Müller, BS}, title = {Patient safety and climate change: findings from a cross-sectional survey in Germany.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {3233}, pmid = {39567901}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Humans ; Germany ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; *Climate Change ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; *Patient Safety/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Patient safety has become a priority issue in health policy strategies in Germany in the last several years, and is especially important in the era of climate change. This study aimed to assess public perceptions about the patient safety impact of climate change and the demographic and socioeconomic factors influencing patient perception in Germany.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Germany in 2023, using data from the TK Monitor of Patient Safety. The TK Monitor of Patient Safety is a national survey of the population on the state of safety in medical care. Self-reported data were collected from 1,000 randomly selected adults living in Germany. Demographic and socioeconomic variables were regressed on climate change perception using an ordinal logistic regression approach.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results revealed that half of respondents are concerned about climate change affecting their health and 40% of the respondents would like to have climate-sensitive health counseling by their general practitioner. The results showed that demographic variables, such as gender and age, and socioeconomic variables, such as education level and income, are important factors influencing the perception of climate change-related patient safety risks. However, no association was found between urban/rural residence and patient perception.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights patient safety as a public health concern in the era of climate change. The German public appears to view climate change as harmful to patient safety. Our findings also show that it is necessary to carry out diagnoses focused on demographic and socioeconomic factors to determine which aspects should be strengthened through programs aimed at reducing patient safety risks associated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39567782, year = {2024}, author = {Osborn, TJ and Kennedy, JJ}, title = {Revised historical record sharpens perspective on global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {635}, number = {8039}, pages = {560-561}, pmid = {39567782}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39566630, year = {2024}, author = {de Freitas, CH and Coelho, RD and de Oliveira Costa, J and Sentelhas, PC}, title = {A bitter cup of coffee? Assessing the impact of climate change on Arabica coffee production in Brazil.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {957}, number = {}, pages = {177546}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177546}, pmid = {39566630}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of Arabica coffee, faces increasing challenges from climate changes. To maintain the sustainability of this commodity, innovative management techniques will be essential. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate projections, considering two CMIP6 emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) on the phenology and yield of Arabica coffee in 36 representative locations across Brazil for the periods 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. Observed meteorological data from the BR-DWGD (Brazilian Daily Weather Gridded Data) and projected data from CLIMBra (Climate Change Dataset for Brazil) were employed. An agrometeorological model, calibrated for Brazilian conditions, estimated yield and phenology. Results indicate significant impacts on coffee cultivation areas, mainly due to rising temperatures and increased water deficits. Projections also suggest changes in coffee phenology, with anthesis advancing in colder regions and delaying in warmer areas, while maturation timing occurring earlier in all climates. Yield increases from CO2 fertilization were more pronounced in category C climates (Cfa, Cfb, Cwa, and Cwb), particularly in Cwb climates, reaching 2.9 bags ha[-1] (3.7 bags ha[-1] with irrigation) under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and 2.5 bags ha[-1] (3.5 bags ha[-1] with irrigation) under SSP5-8.5. However, higher temperatures and water deficits could cause severe yield losses, especially in Aw climates and under high-emission scenarios, where losses may reach 100 %. Irrigation will play an important role in mitigating yield losses, especially in northern regions such as northern Minas Gerais and Bahia, where yields could exceed 30 bags ha[-1]. While southern Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and northern Paraná are projected to have the highest yields, these regions also face greater uncertainty and variability. This study underscores the need for adaptive agricultural practices, the development of resilient coffee cultivars, and supportive research policies to ensure the sustainability of coffee farming in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39566260, year = {2024}, author = {Réalis-Doyelle, E and Guillard, J and Morati, R and Cottin, N and Reynaud, S and Naffrechoux, E}, title = {Impacts of paternal transmission of PCBs and global warming on the evolution of pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) during the early life stages of a cold stenothermic fish (Arctic charr).}, journal = {Aquatic toxicology (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {277}, number = {}, pages = {107130}, doi = {10.1016/j.aquatox.2024.107130}, pmid = {39566260}, issn = {1879-1514}, abstract = {In the context of strong historical and climate anthropological pressure, we studied the impact of paternal transmission of PCBs on offspring of the stenothermic salmonid, Artic charr. Indeed, the transgenerational effects of maternal transmission are widely studied, unlike the paternal effect, which is often limited to epigenetic impacts. The study aims to test the effects of temperature and PCBs on the Artic charr (Salvelinus alpinus), whose population within the perialpine lakes has remained low for about a decade. A previous study (Realis-Doyelle et al., 2023) on the effect of maternal transmission of PCB, coupled with an increase in temperature, showed a collapse in offspring survival as well as morpho-anatomic disorders in Salvelinus alpinus. This study follows on from the previous one, we contaminated 21 males with intra-peritoneal PCB injection at three levels of concentration one month before spawning. Each male fertilised a pool of 12 female oocytes not contaminated with PCBs. Each fertilized pond was separated in two and incubated at 4.5°C and 8.5°C, respectively. To explore the effects, we have relied on the POLS theories that suggest a co-variation of traits of life. The results show no population collapse (∼50 % survival), in contrast to the maternal contamination study (∼12 % survival). We may issue the hypothesis that this smaller importance of paternal transmission is due to the synergic impact of PCB and temperature on fewer parameters, in particular for survival than female transmission.}, }
@article {pmid39566256, year = {2024}, author = {Bond, A and Walton, R and Rivett, G and Cardenas-Braz, D and Simon, L}, title = {Nourishing sustainability: Clinical nutrition's impact on climate change.}, journal = {Clinical nutrition (Edinburgh, Scotland)}, volume = {43}, number = {12}, pages = {331-340}, doi = {10.1016/j.clnu.2024.10.038}, pmid = {39566256}, issn = {1532-1983}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Preserving our planet's delicate balance is not merely a choice but a responsibility we owe to future generations, ensuring equitable, and sustainable world. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by all United Nations (UN) member states in 2015, offers a collective vision for global peace and prosperity. Central to this agenda are the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which call for unified action from all nations, irrespective of their developmental status, under a global partnership.<br><br>METHOD: This paper examines the SDGs' framework and its applicability to clinical nutrition (CN). We provide a comprehensive narrative review relating to the integration of SDGs in CN practices. Whilst recognising the importance of the SDG framework we elected to focus specifically upon the environmental aspects of CN care.<br><br>RESULTS: The analysis revealed that the SDGs provide a robust framework for promoting sustainability in clinical nutrition. Key findings highlight the interconnection between health improvement and other SDGs, such as poverty reduction and climate action. Effective CN practices contribute to broader sustainable development by ensuring better health outcomes, which in turn support economic growth and reduce inequalities. Additionally, strategies in CN that focus on reducing waste and improving resource efficiency align with environmental sustainability goals.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The 17 SDGs offer a comprehensive guide for advancing sustainability across various fields, including clinical nutrition. By adopting these goals, healthcare providers can implement holistic strategies that not only improve health outcomes but also support broader efforts to achieve global sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid39566213, year = {2024}, author = {Quadroni, S and Cesarini, G and De Santis, V and Galafassi, S}, title = {Interconnected impacts of water resource management and climate change on microplastic pollution and riverine biocoenosis: A review by freshwater ecologists.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {372}, number = {}, pages = {123363}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123363}, pmid = {39566213}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The relationship between river hydrology and microplastic (MP) pollution is complex: increased discharge does not always mobilize more MPs, but floods can effectively flush out MPs from river catchments. Climate change and water resource management further influence MP pollution and its fate by altering river hydro-sedimentary regimes. This review investigates the interconnected impacts of these factors from a comprehensive perspective, focusing on how they affect MP concentration in freshwater ecosystems, particularly in regulated rivers and associated reservoirs. Our review reveals a scarcity of studies that jointly analyze the interrelated issues of MP pollution, water resource management, and climate change. Key findings indicate that variations in river discharge significantly influence MP mobilization, mainly depending on catchment land use, channel morphology, position within the catchment, and MP characteristics. Reservoirs function as both sinks and sources of MPs, underscoring their complex role in MP dynamics and the need for sustainable sediment management strategies. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, driven by climate change, along with prolonged droughts intensified by water management practices, exacerbates MP pollution. These changes contribute to the local concentration of MPs, posing direct physical threats to aquatic organisms, particularly benthic species, through pollution and habitat alterations. Current policies on plastic pollution, water resources and climate change are underdeveloped, as these topics have been treated separately so far. In conclusion, this review provides perspectives on future research and policy directions to address challenges posed by MPs and to preserve rivers against multiple stressors.}, }
@article {pmid39565995, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, Y and Wen, B and Gasevic, D and Patz, JA and Haines, A and Ebi, KL and Murray, V and Li, S and Guo, Y}, title = {Climate Change, Floods, and Human Health.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {391}, number = {20}, pages = {1949-1958}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMsr2402457}, pmid = {39565995}, issn = {1533-4406}, }
@article {pmid39565480, year = {2024}, author = {Agathokleous, E and Emberson, L and Pei, J and Kobayashi, K and Blande, JD and Cook, J and Fang, C and Han, Z and Ju, H and Knopf, O and Li, T and Liu, B and Liu, X and Masui, N and Masutomi, Y and McHugh, K and O'Neill, C and Pande, P and Rasheed, MU and Ruhanen, H and Shang, B and Tai, APK and Yamaguchi, M and Yu, Z and Yuan, X and Xu, Y and Zhao, C and Zhao, J and Zheng, H and Zhou, H and Feng, Z}, title = {Insights from the international workshop on "Adapting agriculture to climate change and air pollution".}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39565480}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {An international workshop on "Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change and Air Pollution" took place at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China, during 23-27 October, 2023. Experts working in various multi-disciplinary areas of agroecosystem and environmental research gathered for academic communication and discussions. Two discussion groups focused on "agriculture under air pollution and climate change: current challenges and priorities for the future" and "adapting agriculture to air pollution and climate change: current status and next steps." Insights derived from the discussions are summarized in this article and include opinions about current issues, knowledge gaps' identification, and potential priorities and actions that could be taken. The first discussion mainly addresses ozone impact estimates; ozone metrics for impact and risk assessments; ozone monitoring; air pollution impacts and policy; and the pivotal role of agriculture and consumer choices. The second discussion covers adaptation and mitigation; greenhouse gases and energy efficiency; concerns about the link between adaptation and mitigation; local food, planetary-health diets and carbon footprint; irrigation and climate change adaptation; scientific evidence and policy-making; air pollution and crop adaptation; machine learning and crop modeling; and challenges faced by smallholder farmers and large-scale enterprises. Hence, this report could be useful for reseach, educational, and policy purposes, collating opinions of experts working in diverse research areas.}, }
@article {pmid39564491, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, Y and Wang, M and Huang, M and Zhao, J}, title = {Innovative strategies and challenges mosquito-borne disease control amidst climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1488106}, pmid = {39564491}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {The revival of the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases grants striking challenges to public health intensified by climate change worldwide. This inclusive review article examines multidimensional strategies and challenges linked to climate change and the epidemiology of mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever. It delves into how the biology, pathogenic dynamics, and vector distribution of mosquitoes are influenced by continuously rising temperatures, modified rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic conditions. We also highlighted the high likelihood of malaria in Africa, dengue in Southeast Asia, and blowout of Aedes in North America and Europe. Modern predictive tools and developments in surveillance, including molecular gears, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and remote sensing have boosted our capacity to predict epidemics. Integrated data management techniques and models based on climatic conditions provide a valuable understanding of public health planning. Based on recent data and expert ideas, the objective of this review is to provide a thoughtful understanding of existing landscape and upcoming directions in the control of mosquito-borne diseases regarding changing climate. This review determines emerging challenges and innovative vector control strategies in the changing climatic conditions to ensure public health.}, }
@article {pmid39563456, year = {2024}, author = {Huang, J and Guo, H}, title = {When a bleak future comes closer: interaction effects of emotion and temporal distance framing in climate change communication.}, journal = {BMC psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {677}, pmid = {39563456}, issn = {2050-7283}, support = {GD22XXW07//The Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of Guangdong Province in China./ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Emotions ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Fear/psychology ; Persuasive Communication ; Young Adult ; Hope ; Communication ; }, abstract = {Given the widespread use of emotional and distance framing in climate change communication, this study investigated how these strategies interact to influence perceptions and behaviors related to climate change. Guided by the Situational Theory of Problem Solving and through an experimental survey, the research revealed that fear-inducing messages led to greater recognition of problems and involvement when combined with short-term temporal frames, compared to hope-inducing messages. These findings suggest that the effects of emotional appeals are conditioned on the temporal distance of the issue highlighted in climate change communication, offering a more nuanced understanding of the differentiated effects of fear and hope appeals and practical insights for crafting persuasive messages.}, }
@article {pmid39562576, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, Z and Jing, Z and Song, F}, title = {Weakened large-scale surface heat flux feedback at midlatitudes under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {10020}, pmid = {39562576}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {42325601//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; tsqn201909052//Taishan Scholar Foundation of Shandong Province/ ; }, abstract = {The surface heat flux feedback, which refers to the response of surface heat flux anomaly to the underlying sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), is one of the key processes in air-sea interaction. It plays an important role in regulating various aspects of the climate system, ranging from local SSTA persistence to the global overturning circulation and major climate modes. Yet its change under greenhouse gas-induced warming remains unknown. Here, using an ensemble of global climate simulations under a high radiative forcing scenario, we demonstrate that the intensity of surface heat flux feedback for spatially large-scale SSTA at the midlatitudes is projected to halve by the end of the 21[st] century, compared to pre-industrial levels. Such weakening is primarily attributed to a more stabilized marine atmospheric boundary layer, which diminishes the air-sea thermal disequilibrium caused by SSTA. In a warming climate, the variance of midlatitude SSTA at large spatial scales is expected to be significantly enhanced in response to the weakened surface heat flux feedback.}, }
@article {pmid39562506, year = {2024}, author = {Soomro, S and Zhou, D and Charan, IA}, title = {Investigating Associations Between Climate Change Anxiety and Children's Mental Health in Pakistan: Impacts and Priority Actions.}, journal = {Disaster medicine and public health preparedness}, volume = {18}, number = {}, pages = {e277}, doi = {10.1017/dmp.2024.267}, pmid = {39562506}, issn = {1938-744X}, mesh = {Humans ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Anxiety/psychology/epidemiology/etiology ; Child ; Female ; Male ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Mental Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Adolescent ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Climate anxiety has a negative impact on the mental health and psychological wellbeing of the vulnerable population. The goal is to assess many factors that affect mental health and psychological wellbeing, as well as how climate change affects mental health in Pakistan's vulnerable population.<br><br>METHODS: This study provides evidence-based insights on the long- and medium-term impacts of extreme weather events on mental health. To obtain information on these variables, this research uses a quantitative approach and a cross-sectional survey design with a multivariate regression model for empirical tests on a sample of parents and children with an impact on mental health from climate change anxiety.<br><br>RESULTS: Results indicate that individuals experience shock and climate change anxiety, and their effects on mental health and psychological wellbeing. Climate change can have detrimental effects on children's mental health. (1) disaster risk health (2) children's stress index (3) public health concerns, (4) climate change anxiety, (5) generalized anxiety disorder, and (6) major depression disorder, as reported by the children with mental health outcomes.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study show that climate change has a stressful effect on mental health. The paper concludes with a discussion on strategies to address the anticipated mental health issues among children due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39562430, year = {2024}, author = {Vergotti, MJ and D'Olivo, JP and Brachert, TC and Capdevila, P and Garrabou, J and Linares, C and Spreter, PM and Kersting, DK}, title = {Reconstruction of long-term sublethal effects of warming on a temperate coral in a climate change hotspot.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.14225}, pmid = {39562430}, issn = {1365-2656}, support = {PEICTI 2021-2023//Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; RYC2021-033576-I//Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; 401447620//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; PID2022-137539OA-C22//Spanish Ministry of Sciencie, Inovation and Universities/ ; 869710//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; //ICREA Academia/ ; CEX2019-000928-S//Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence"/ ; }, abstract = {The impact of warming on zooxanthellate corals is widespread, from tropical to temperate seas, with its associated mortalities causing global concern. The temperate coral Cladocora caespitosa is the only zooxanthellate coral with reef building capacity in the Mediterranean Sea, a climate change hotspot with warming rates triple the global average. During the past two decades, C. caespitosa populations have suffered severe mortality events associated with marine heatwaves (MHWs). However, with monitoring efforts beginning, at best, in the 2000s, the occurrence of MHWs before that period, as well as the sublethal effects of these events remain poorly understood. Here, we use sclerochronology to reconstruct the histories of past stress events and long-term sublethal effects on C. caespitosa in three locations along a latitudinal gradient within the NW Mediterranean Sea, each with different environmental conditions. Skeletal extension, density and calcification rates were compared with the in situ seawater temperature of each site to assess their relationship. Furthermore, we assessed the occurrence of skeletal growth anomalies to reconstruct stress events between 1991 and 2021, a period that encompasses the onset and evolution of warming-related mass mortality events in the NW Mediterranean Sea. Our results reveal a positive association between calcification and temperature, following a latitudinal temperature gradient. However, the evolution of the likelihood distribution of growth rates in the warmest site (Columbretes Islands) since the 1990s indicates a decrease in linear extension and calcification rates during the most recent years. With the increase in the frequency of MHWs and growth anomalies during the last decade, this decline suggests recurrent physiological stress events. These results unravel information on the long-term impacts of warming on coral growth and highlight the potential of applying sclerochronology to reconstruct the sublethal effects of warming using C. caespitosa.}, }
@article {pmid39562035, year = {2024}, author = {Simpson, MJA}, title = {Defending our colleagues who take direct action on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {387}, number = {}, pages = {q2533}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q2533}, pmid = {39562035}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid39561894, year = {2024}, author = {Fong, CR and Frazier, M and Clawson, G and Epperly, H and Froehlich, HE and Halpern, BS}, title = {Downscaled climate change threats to United States freshwater finfish aquaculture.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {177596}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177596}, pmid = {39561894}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change threatens food production, yet gaps remain in our understanding of these threats to aquaculture, the fastest growing food production subsector. To build climate-resilient practices and policies we need to quantify and map current and future climate threats to aquaculture. Here, we explore how downscaled climate change [SSP 2 (eq. RCP 4.5) and SSP 5 (eq. RCP8.5), CMIP6] threats - including water scarcity, flooding, and increasing temperature - may directly affect United States (US) freshwater farmed fish (N = 7) based on their biological thermal tolerances and indirectly challenge the operations required for production, including to the human workforce. Aquaculture in the US is dominated by catfish, trout, and tilapia production and is widespread, with some form of finfish aquaculture present in every state and nearly half of all counties across the country. Given the current location of catfish, tilapia, bass, and carp in the US and their tolerance to warmer conditions, we find increasing temperatures are less likely to biologically impact these species negatively. In contrast, current trout, sturgeon, and perch production will be biologically threatened by rising temperatures. With respect to operational needs for facilities, increases in 'wet bulb' temperatures in the Southeast will regularly challenge human physiological limits and constrain worker capacity. Drought in the Southwest will also limit an intrinsically water dependent system, affecting nearly all taxa. While current areas of aquaculture will tend to become increasingly challenging for farmed fishes, new potential habitats will open up for nearly all species. Overall, in the absence of immediate greenhouse gas mitigation, there are several non-mutually exclusive climate adaptations, yet these adaptations can be extremely costly. Ultimately, freshwater aquaculture in the US is going to be under intense climate pressure, which may drive out small operations and cause the country to further increase dependence on international aquatic food imports.}, }
@article {pmid39561488, year = {2024}, author = {Tavakoli-Kolour, P and Sinniger, F and Morita, M and Hazraty-Kari, S and Nakamura, T and Harii, S}, title = {Shallow corals acclimate to mesophotic depths while maintaining their heat tolerance against ongoing climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {209}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {117277}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117277}, pmid = {39561488}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {Global warming poses a significant threat to coral reefs. It has been assumed that mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs, 30 to 150 m depths) may serve as refugia from ocean warming. This study examined the acclimation capacity and thermal tolerance of two shallow coral species, Porites cylindrica and Turbinaria reniformis, transplanted to mesophotic depths (40 m) for 12 months. Fragments from 5 and 40 m were exposed to control (28 °C), moderate (30 °C), and high (32 °C) temperatures over 14 days. MCE-acclimated fragments showed higher thermal thresholds and survival rates, delayed onset of bleaching, and less decline in photosynthesis efficiency (Fv/Fm) compared to shallow fragments. Both species maintained high thermal tolerance despite prolonged exposure to cooler temperatures of mesophotic depth. These findings suggest that low light intensity in MCEs can act as a modulator of bleaching, supporting the potential of these ecosystems as refugia for shallow corals in a rapidly changing world.}, }
@article {pmid39559604, year = {2024}, author = {Kalra, G and Nangia, T and Kumar, Y}, title = {Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Early Childhood Caries Within the Framework of Sustainable Developmental Goal 13: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {Cureus}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {e71872}, pmid = {39559604}, issn = {2168-8184}, abstract = {Climate change, a significant factor in global health disparities, has been linked to numerous health issues, including oral health disorders such as dental caries and enamel hypoplasia. Sustainable Developmental Goal 13 (SDG 13) accentuates immediate action to battle climatic changes and their complications. This scoping review aimed to explore the existing evidence in the literature linking SDG 13 with Early Childhood Caries (ECC). The review was carried out following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. A rigorous search was done during the month of May 2024 using databases PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar with search MeSH terms related to climate change, Early Childhood Caries (ECC), and Sustainable Developmental Goal (SDG). Publications or abstracts were included only in English from 2015 onwards, with no restrictions on the type of study. A summary of the eligible studies was compiled, highlighting the countries where the research was conducted, the type of study designs used, the region, study aims, and key findings. Additionally, the study results were analyzed to determine whether SDG 13 was addressed. The initial search provided 74 articles, of which 51 were duplicates, yielding 23 for screening. After applying the eligibility criteria, seven studies were finally reviewed. Two of the seven studies included were from the African continent (Kenya and Nigeria), and one was a multi-centric study involving various continents, Africa (Nigeria &amp; Kenya), Asia (Saudi Arabia, Indonesia), and America (Canada, Brazil). Two other studies were conducted in the UK, China, and India, while one was from the USA and focused on how climate change impacts dental caries. Only three studies were found to be addressing SDG 13. The review established a plausible link between ECC and climate change factors, addressing the need to incorporate sustainable developmental strategies and eco-friendly preventive measures in pediatric dentistry.}, }
@article {pmid39559180, year = {2024}, author = {Verma, A and Suresh, V and Brar, M and Varma, A and Sah, S and Singh, MP and Mehta, R and Balaraman, AK and Pandey, S and Kanagala, SG}, title = {Re-emergence of Eastern equine encephalitis: A looming threat in the era of climate change.}, journal = {New microbes and new infections}, volume = {62}, number = {}, pages = {101521}, pmid = {39559180}, issn = {2052-2975}, }
@article {pmid39557958, year = {2024}, author = {Guo, J and Zhang, M and Bi, Y and Zhao, Z and Wang, R and Li, M}, title = {Spatiotemporal distribution prediction of the relict and endangered plant Tetraena mongolica in inner Mongolia, China under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {28478}, pmid = {39557958}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {S202410130007//Undergraduate Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region/ ; CARS-21//China Agriculture Research System of MOF and MARA/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Endangered Species ; China ; *Ecosystem ; Soil/chemistry ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change significantly affects the distribution of plant species, particularly that of relict plants. Tetraena mongolica Maxim. is a first-class endangered relict plant in China, primarily found in Inner Mongolia. This study explored the impact of multiple factors on its potential distribution under climate change. Considering a comprehensive set of 42 potential influencing variables, including climate, soil, net primary productivity (NPP), human activities, and topography, 29 variables were selected. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to construct separate climate and soil niche models, and an "overlay function" was employed to construct a dual-suitability model. By establishing five different scenarios, we analyzed the effects of climate, human activities, and NPP on T. mongolica distribution. The results showed that climate is the most significant factor, soil constraints limit its distribution, and human activities reduce its suitable habitats. Although the direct influence of NPP is limited, it may indirectly affect T. mongolica distribution by improving habitat conditions. Future climate change is expected to sharply reduce suitable habitat areas, with the center of distribution migrating eastward. The study's findings imply that climate change, human activities, and soil conditions significantly impact the distribution and survival of the endangered plant T. mongolica, necessitating comprehensive conservation measures to mitigate habitat loss and ensure its preservation.}, }
@article {pmid39556954, year = {2024}, author = {Bergquist, M}, title = {A sender-message-receiver (SMeR) framework for communicating persuasive social norms - The case of climate change mitigation behavioral change.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {61}, number = {}, pages = {101941}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2024.101941}, pmid = {39556954}, issn = {2352-2518}, abstract = {This review delves into the nuanced boundary conditions of social norms in fostering behavior change within the realm of climate action. Current research is examined within a "Sender - Message - Receiver (SMeR)" framework, which investigates factors such as group identification and group size that influence the effectiveness of social norms. Furthermore, it explores how cultural context, personal norms, emotions, and ambiguity shape individuals' responses to social norms-based messages. By illuminating these boundary conditions, the review provides insights into the complexities of social normative influence and offers guidance for designing more effective intervention techniques to promote behavioral change. Understanding these nuances is crucial for developing targeted strategies that resonate with diverse audiences and facilitate meaningful shifts toward a more environmentally sustainable future.}, }
@article {pmid39556170, year = {2024}, author = {Domdey, AJ and Thomas, SM}, title = {[Climate change and vector-borne disease-significance for intensive care and emergency medicine].}, journal = {Medizinische Klinik, Intensivmedizin und Notfallmedizin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39556170}, issn = {2193-6226}, abstract = {Tropical diseases are becoming increasingly important in medical care in Germany due to climate change and the spread of vectors and viruses. The widely distributed Culex mosquitoes in Germany can transmit the West Nile virus, which causes West Nile fever. Severe neuroinvasive disease courses with acute flaccid paralysis, meningitis, and encephalitis are possible. The invasive tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is increasingly establishing itself in Germany and is a potent vector of viruses that have so far occurred mainly in tropical-subtropical areas, including dengue and chikungunya virus. Severe dengue cases can manifest with hemorrhagic dengue fever, shock, or organ involvement. Dengue fever is currently still a travel-related disease in Germany. However, this may change in the context of climate change and increasing vector populations. Enhanced training and continuing education programs, as well as an expansion of diagnostic infrastructure and networking of health authorities and mosquito control, are crucial for optimal patient care.}, }
@article {pmid39554939, year = {2024}, author = {Sugden, SG and Merlo, G}, title = {What do Climate Change, Nutrition, and the Environment Have to do With Mental Health?.}, journal = {American journal of lifestyle medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {15598276241280245}, pmid = {39554939}, issn = {1559-8284}, abstract = {Climate change is becoming the most significant global challenge and must be addressed on a global scale. At the time that this article is being written, the planetary heat in 2023 was the hottest on record. Similarly, the World Health Organization reports that 99% of the world's population lives in regions of unhealthy air pollution. Similarly, depression has become one of the leading causes of global mental and physical disabilities, and the impact of depression is predicted to only worsen over the next 25 years. It is interesting to note that climate experts often overlook the adoption of nutrition via a whole plant-based diet as a solution to both mental illness and climate change. In this review, we will touch upon the role of nutrition in gut microbiota and mental health, the impact diet has on greenhouse gases, the role of ultra-processed food, and environmental factors such as air pollution and increasing planetary heat and their growing impacts on mental health. In the end, the promotion of plant-based foods has the potential to improve personal mental and physical health while improving planetary health.}, }
@article {pmid39554920, year = {2024}, author = {Bernstein, A and Hunnes, DE}, title = {Food is Medicine Interventions and Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of lifestyle medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {15598276241275613}, pmid = {39554920}, issn = {1559-8284}, abstract = {Food is Medicine (FiM), also known as Food as Medicine, integrates food and nutrition interventions into health care delivery with the primary goal to improve population health and address diet-related health conditions. To date, there has been little focus on the relation between FiM and climate change despite FiM's involvement with 2 key drivers of climate change: health care delivery and food systems. FiM may be able to advance lifestyle medicine and population health objectives, as well as mitigate some of the health care and food-related drivers of climate change, by focusing on 4 key areas: (1) Increasing the absolute number and proportion of patients who follow plant-based diets; (2) reducing food waste; (3) reducing unnecessary health care utilization; and (4) lowering transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions related to food procurement. Measuring the ecological impact of FiM alongside clinical, utilization, and financial measures will require a different analytical approach than that used traditionally in health care. Ultimately, thoughtful, data-driven, and urgent interventions that span the food and health care sectors are needed to sustainably support not only FiM, but human, environmental, and planetary health as well.}, }
@article {pmid39554904, year = {2024}, author = {Cunningham, I and Kohlitz, J and Willetts, J}, title = {Designing for climate change: twenty-five design features to improve sanitation technology resilience in low- and middle- income countries.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {82}, pmid = {39554904}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change is exacerbating events such as floods and droughts, and trends including sea-level rise, leading to failures in sanitation technologies, increased public health risks and environmental pollution. To reduce these risks, it is crucial to incorporate climate resilience into sanitation technology designs. In this study, we reviewed academic and selected grey literature and identified 25 design features that can contribute to the technology's resilience to an increasingly volatile and extreme climate. Design features that were conceptually similar were collated into seven categories. These categories included: (i) avoid exposure to hazards, (ii) withstand exposure to hazards, (iii) enable flexibility, (iv) contain failures, (v) limit consequences of complete failure, (vi) facilitate fast recovery and (vii) features that provide resilience benefits beyond technological resilience. In this paper we define the categories and design features, and provide examples of each feature in practice. We also outline how the resilience design features can support sanitation designers and implementers to critique the climate resilience of sanitation technology, and prompt more resilient designs of sanitation technology.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-024-10177-7.}, }
@article {pmid39553695, year = {2024}, author = {Luo, B and Dou, X}, title = {Climate change, agricultural transformation and climate smart agriculture development in China.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {21}, pages = {e40008}, pmid = {39553695}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Against the backdrop of increasingly severe global climate change, it has become an inevitable choice to promote the transformation of agriculture oriented to climate smart agriculture. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate realistic problem faced by China's agricultural transformation and identify key factors affecting agricultural development under the background of climate change. The paper constructs a linear econometric model and employes time series data from 1990 to 2019 to empirically test the impact of climate change and agricultural investment on agriculture in China. The results indicate that climate change has a negative impact on agriculture, while agricultural investment has a positive impact. Therefore, it is necessary to promote agricultural transformation oriented to climate smart agriculture. To this end, China must vigorously promote agricultural system reform, accelerate agricultural technological innovation, accelerate the development of agricultural big data and informatization, and strengthen financial support for agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid39553690, year = {2024}, author = {Ali, I and Shah, AA and Alotaibi, BA and Ali, A}, title = {Assessing the impacts of climate change on high mountain land-based livelihoods: An empirical investigation in District Nagar, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {21}, pages = {e39877}, pmid = {39553690}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Land-based livelihoods in Pakistan's high mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate change due to the complex interactions between people and their natural environment. This study uses a mixed-method approach to explore how climate change affects land-based livelihoods in the high mountain Nagar District, Pakistan. Data were collected using a structured household survey of 430 randomly selected farmers, supplemented by focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The findings reveal that 87.7 % of farmers have observed negative impacts of climate change, such as increased crop diseases, reduced water for irrigation, and lower crop yields. Bivariate results indicate that factors related to farming practices, such as farming experience and cropping zones, significantly influence farmers' perceptions of impacts. The study emphasizes the urgent need for targeted government intervention and agricultural planning to boost the resilience of farmers in Nagar District. It calls for improved irrigation, crop disease management, and support tailored to high-mountain farming practices. The research highlights the importance of developing adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable farming communities from climate change impacts and supports the need for effective autonomous adaptation measures. This research contributes to a better understanding of climate change impacts on high-mountain agriculture and emphasizes the need to safeguard vulnerable farming communities.}, }
@article {pmid39553670, year = {2024}, author = {Romaric Gninkplékpo, EL and Koura, BI and Lesse, P and Toko, I and Demblon, D and Houinato, MRB and Cabaraux, JF}, title = {Small ruminant farmers' feeding strategies to cope with climate change across five agroecological zones of Benin, West Africa.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {21}, pages = {e39834}, pmid = {39553670}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study aimed to understand feeding strategies used by small ruminant farmers to cope with climatic change in the five contrasting agroecological zones (AEZ) of the Benin Republic and to identify the determinants of adopting these strategies. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to conduct interviews with 400 smallholder farmers in the rural areas of Benin. Data was collected on production system characteristics, farmers' perception of climatic changes' impacts on livestock production, and their coping strategies. Cross tabulations with Chi[2] statistic and the non-parametric Kruskal Wallis test were used to compare farmers' perceptions and coping strategies between the five AEZ. Then, the binomial logistic regression was used to identify determinants of using a particular adaptive feeding strategy. The farmers perceived climatic changes as rainfall delays, increasing rainfall, less frequent drought periods during the rainy season, no change in sunshine duration, and no change in temperature. These changes negatively affected grassland biomass production (86.3 %, 86.3 % and 77.5 % of farmers in South Borgou, Plateau, Atacora chain AEZ, respectively) and water availability (100 %, 93.7 %, and 85 % of farmers in Oueme Valley, Plateau and Mekrou-penjari AEZ, respectively). Consequently, farmers mentioned decreased animal growth (58.8 % and 45 % of farmers in Plateau and South Borgou AEZ, respectively) and increased animal mortalities (43.8 % in Plateau AEZ). Farmers' current and future coping strategies varied significantly (p<0.05) among AEZ. These strategies included more diversification of feed resources used, more free wandering of animals, feeding intensification with supplements as current strategies, and new feed resource exploration and forage cultivation as future strategies. Logistic regression results showed that gender, education level, main activity, and the climatic and agroecological zones where the farm is located influenced the strategies used. The study showed that farmers understood climate change and its impact on production systems. In response, the common climate-smart feeding strategies adopted were mainly diversifying feed resources. Feed resources use strategies, and limitations to adopting these strategies, could be assessed in future studies.}, }
@article {pmid39553647, year = {2024}, author = {Mwelwa, D and Mwaanga, P and Nguvulu, A and Tena, TM and Taye, G}, title = {Assessment of catchment water resources allocation under climate change in Luwombwa sub-catchment, Zambia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {21}, pages = {e39962}, pmid = {39553647}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The uncertainty in climate change and high water demand pose pressure on the natural water resources supply. Not only does this require better understanding but also a call for immediate interventions, mitigation and adaptive measures. This study evaluates catchment water resources in the Luwombwa sub-catchment in Zambia through statistical analysis in the downscaling of past, present and future climatic variables from the CMIP6 climatic model. These variables are then integrated into WEAP - a semi-distributed hydrological and water evaluation model - to perform water demand and allocation scenario modelling. Mult-site calibration and validation were conducted on five selected micro-catchments within Luwombwa sub-catchment. The model performance was assessed usng the R[2], NSE and PBIAS as the objective functions. Satisfactory values of 92 % for R[2], 82 % for NSE and 6.9 % for PBIAS were achieved. This allowed for scenario modelling on water demand and allocation among competing users. Three future scenarios (2022-2050) were developed from the historical to baseline (1988-2022) and included state of water resources availability under climate change, expansion of irrigation area and impact of dam construction in the sub-catchment. The study reveals a decrease of 20 % in sub-catchment's water availability resulting from 9.3 % (equivalent to 4[o]C) rise in maximum temperature and 4.5 % reduction in rainfall within the entire sub-catchment. This is especially under the persistence of SSP370 climate variability scenario projections downscaled from four GCM models by the year 2050. The study further revealed that the change point for anticipated future climate extremes is likely to occur between 2027 and 2030. The results are indicative of downward trends in streamflow under climate change and socioeconomic development leading to increase in water value and water scarcity. The insights from the study are critical to inform formulation of effective catchment water resources management strategies such as the development of management plans and adapation measures in the face of climate change and the needs for different stakeholders involvement.}, }
@article {pmid39553624, year = {2024}, author = {Kim, M and Kim, S and Jeon, S}, title = {One in three or three in one: Integrating three competing theoretical models (TPB, VIP, and PADM) to explain the intentions to act/actions against climate change.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {21}, pages = {e39337}, pmid = {39553624}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study examines multidimensional factors affecting climate change response behavior. It constructs an integrated model based on the theory of planned behavior, value-identity-personal norms model, and protective action decision model, as a single theory cannot capture the complex nature of human behavior. Recent studies have shown that integrating theories include various influencing factors and indicate higher explanatory power. Therefore, this study uses an integrated model to identify multidimensional influencing factors. The fit of the integrated model was confirmed to be excellent (Chi-square = 1271.866, p = .000, GFI = 0.930, NFI = 0.940, RMSEA = 0.060, TLI = 0.937, SRMR = 0.059), and identity exhibited the greatest effect on personal norms, followed by intention on behavior. The integrated model suggests the following path: ecological value → identity → personal norms → stakeholder awareness → intention → behavior and then ecological value → identity → perceived behavioral control → risk awareness → intention → behavior. The results of the integrated model suggest that a multifaceted approach is necessary to promote climate change response behavior. Various factors, such as ecological value, identity, personal norms, stakeholder awareness, perceived behavioral control, and risk awareness, interact and influence behavior. Policies and programs that comprehensively consider these factors should be established.}, }
@article {pmid39553264, year = {2024}, author = {Apiratwarakul, K and Cheung, LW and Pearkao, C and Ienghong, K}, title = {The Impact of Global Warming on the Rise in Heat-Related Illnesses in Emergency Medical Services.}, journal = {Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {5211-5216}, pmid = {39553264}, issn = {1178-2390}, abstract = {PURPOSE: Global warming is one of the critical problems affecting health, society, and the economy. High temperatures are linked to an increase in heat-related illnesses, which have significantly impacted the public health system, particularly emergency medical services (EMS). Analyzing the pattern of heat-related illness cases in EMS can improve resource utilization and preparedness within the public health system.<br><br>PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on EMS data from Srinagarind Hospital, Thailand, covering the summer months (February to May) from 2020 to 2024. Patients with heat-related illnesses were identified in the EMS database using the 10[th] revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) version 2019, specifically codes under "T67 Effects of Heat and Light", which include heat stroke, heat syncope, heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat fatigue.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 136 EMS operations from the hospital's database were analyzed. In the summer 2024 group, 95.7% (N=44) of the patients were male. The majority of EMS triage cases required resuscitation (P = 0.020). Outdoor activity was identified as a significant factor related to heat illness, with rates of 83.3%, 92.9%, 93.3%, 97.1%, and 93.5% over the five years of the study. The activation time was 1.30&#xa0;minutes for the summer of 2024 and 1.24&#xa0;minutes for the summer of 2023. Notably, the average scene time in the summer 2024 group was significantly longer at 25.2&#xa0;minutes, compared to 12.0&#xa0;minutes in the summer 2020 group (P<0.001).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Outdoor activity was the most significant risk factor associated with increased heat-related illnesses. Other contributing factors included male gender, age between 20-40 years, scene temperatures above 35&#xb0;C, and prolonged scene times exceeding 15&#xa0;minutes.}, }
@article {pmid39550165, year = {2024}, author = {Samarasekera, U}, title = {Elizabeth Kimani-Murage: exploring climate change and nutrition.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {404}, number = {10466}, pages = {1916}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02471-1}, pmid = {39550165}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid39549750, year = {2024}, author = {Casati, T and Navarra, A and Filippini, M and Gargini, A}, title = {Assessing the long-term trend of spring discharge in a climate change hotspot area.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {177498}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177498}, pmid = {39549750}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid39548719, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, Y and Gao, Y and Zhang, Z and Zhan, A}, title = {Multi-Omics Inform Invasion Risks Under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {e17588}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17588}, pmid = {39548719}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2022GDASZH-2022010106//GDAS Special Project of Science and Technology Development/ ; 2024A1515010914//Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation/ ; 42106098//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32061143012//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 42276126//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32371753//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; *Genomics ; Urochordata/genetics ; Epigenomics ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Animals ; Multiomics ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is exacerbating biological invasions; however, the roles of genomic and epigenomic variations and their interactions in future climate adaptation remain underexplored. Using the model invasive ascidian Botryllus schlosseri across the Northern Hemisphere, we investigated genomic and epigenomic responses to future climates and developed a framework to assess future invasion risks. We employed generalized dissimilarity modeling and gradient forest analyses to assess genomic and epigenomic offsets under climate change. Our results showed that populations with genomic maladaptation did not geographically overlap with those experiencing epigenomic maladaptation, suggesting that genomic and epigenomic variations play complementary roles in adaptation to future climate conditions. By integrating genomic and epigenomic offsets into the genome-epigenomic index, we predicted that populations with lower index values were less maladapted, indicating a higher risk of future invasions. Native populations exhibited lower offsets than invasive populations, suggesting greater adaptive potentials and higher invasion risks under future climate change scenarios. These results highlight the importance of incorporating multi-omics data into predictive models to study future climate (mal)adaptation and assess invasion risks under global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39546544, year = {2024}, author = {Gutierrez, L and Polidoro, B and Obura, D and Cabada-Blanco, F and Linardich, C and Pettersson, E and Pearce-Kelly, P and Kemppinen, K and Alvarado, JJ and Alvarez-Filip, L and Banaszak, A and Casado de Amezua, P and Crabbe, J and Croquer, A and Feingold, J and Goergen, E and Goffredo, S and Hoeksema, B and Huang, D and Kennedy, E and Kersting, D and Kitahara, M and Kružić, P and Miller, M and Nunes, F and Quimbayo, JP and Rivera-Sosa, A and Rodríguez-Martínez, R and Santodomingo, N and Sweet, M and Vermeij, M and Villamizar, E and Aeby, G and Alliji, K and Bayley, D and Couce, E and Cowburn, B and Nuñez Lendo, CI and Porter, S and Samimi-Namin, K and Shlesinger, T and Wilson, B}, title = {Half of Atlantic reef-building corals at elevated risk of extinction due to climate change and other threats.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {11}, pages = {e0309354}, pmid = {39546544}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Extinction, Biological ; Atlantic Ocean ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Endangered Species ; }, abstract = {Atlantic reef-building corals and coral reefs continue to experience extensive decline due to increased stressors related to climate change, disease, pollution, and numerous anthropogenic threats. To understand the impact of ocean warming and reef loss on the estimated extinction risk of shallow water Atlantic reef-building scleractinians and milleporids, all 85 valid species were reassessed under the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, updating the previous Red List assessment of Atlantic corals published in 2008. For the present assessment, individual species declines were estimated based on the modeled coral cover loss (1989-2019) and projected onset of annual severe bleaching events (2020-2050) across the Atlantic. Species traits were used to scale species' relative vulnerability to the modeled cover declines and forecasted bleaching events. The updated assessments place 45.88%-54.12% of Atlantic shallow water corals at an elevated extinction risk compared to the previous assessments conducted in 2008 (15.19%-40.51%). However, coral cover loss estimates indicate an improvement in reef coverage compared to the historic time-series used for the 2008 assessments. Based on this, we infer that, although remaining dangerously high, the rate of Atlantic reef coral cover decline has surprisingly slowed in recent decades. However, based on modeled projections of sea-surface temperature that predict the onset of annual severe bleaching events within the next 30 years, we listed 26 (out of 85) species as Critically Endangered in the IUCN Red List. Each of these species had previously been listed under a lower threatened category and this result alone highlights the severe threat future bleaching events pose to coral survival and the reef ecosystems they support.}, }
@article {pmid39545367, year = {2024}, author = {Heuck, MK and Powell, JR and Kath, J and Birnbaum, C and Frew, A}, title = {Evaluating the Usefulness of the C-S-R Framework for Understanding AM Fungal Responses to Climate Change in Agroecosystems.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {e17566}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17566}, pmid = {39545367}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DE220100479//Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DECRA)/ ; FT190100590//Australian Research Council Future Fellowship/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Mycorrhizae/physiology ; *Agriculture ; *Ecosystem ; Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi play a key role in terrestrial ecosystems by forming symbiotic relationships with plants and may confer benefits for sustainable agriculture, by reducing reliance on harmful fertiliser and pesticide inputs and enhancing plant resilience against insect herbivores. Despite their ecological importance, critical gaps in understanding AM fungal ecology limit predictions of their responses to global change in agroecosystems. However, predicting climate change impacts on AM fungi is important for maintaining crop productivity and ecosystem stability. Efforts to classify AM fungi based on functional traits, such as the competitor, stress-tolerator, ruderal (C-S-R) framework, aim to address these gaps but face challenges due to the obligate symbiotic nature of the fungi. As the framework is still widely used, we evaluate its applicability in predicting global change impacts on AM fungal communities in agroecosystems. Chagnon's adaptation of the C-S-R framework for AM fungi aligns with some study outcomes (e.g., under the context of water limitation) but faces challenges when used in complex climate change scenarios, varying agricultural conditions and/or extreme climatic conditions. The reliance on a limited dataset to classify AM fungal families further limits accurate predictions of AM fungal community dynamics. Trait data collection could support a nuanced understanding of AM fungi and leveraging AM fungal databases could streamline data management and analysis, enhancing efforts to clarify AM fungal responses to environmental change and guide ecosystem management practices. Thus, while the C-S-R framework holds promise, it requires additional AM fungal trait data for validation and improvement of its predictive power. Conclusively, before designing experiments based on life-history strategies and developing new frameworks tailored to AM fungi a critical first step is to gain a comprehensive understanding of their traits.}, }
@article {pmid39545282, year = {2024}, author = {Biancolini, D and Pacifici, M and Falaschi, M and Bellard, C and Blackburn, TM and Ficetola, GF and Rondinini, C}, title = {Global Distribution of Alien Mammals Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {e17560}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17560}, pmid = {39545282}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Sapienza Universit&#xe0; di Roma/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; *Mammals/physiology ; Animals ; *Animal Distribution ; Biodiversity ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The recent thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and their Control of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services reaffirmed biological invasions as a major threat to biodiversity. Anticipating biological invasions is crucial for avoiding their ecological and socio-economic impacts, particularly as climate change may provide new opportunities for the establishment and spread of alien species. However, no studies have combined assessments of suitability and dispersal to evaluate the invasion by key taxonomic groups, such as mammals. Using species distribution models, we estimated the potential effect of climate change on the future distributions of 205 alien mammal species by the year 2050 under three different climatic scenarios. We used species dispersal ability to differentiate between suitable areas that may be susceptible to natural dispersal from alien ranges (Spread Potential, SP) and those that may be vulnerable to alien establishment through human-assisted dispersal (Establishment Potential, EP) across 11 zoogeographic realms. Establishment Potential was generally boosted by climate change, showing a clear poleward shift across scenarios, whereas SP was negatively affected by climate change and limited by alien species insularity. These trends were consistent across all realms. Insular ecosystems, while being vulnerable to invasion, may act as geographical traps for alien mammals that lose climatic suitability. In addition, our analysis identified the alien species that are expected to spread or decline the most in each realm, primarily generalists with high invasive potential, as likely foci of future management efforts. In some areas, the possible reduction in suitability for alien mammals could offer opportunities for ecosystem restoration, particularly on islands. In others, increased suitability calls for adequate actions to prevent their arrival and spread. Our findings are potentially valuable in informing synergistic actions addressing both climate change and biological invasion together to safeguard native biodiversity worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid39544392, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, L and Wang, P and Xie, G and Wang, W}, title = {Spatial Distribution Pattern of Aromia bungii Within China and Its Potential Distribution Under Climate Change and Human Activity.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {e70520}, pmid = {39544392}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Aromia bungii is a pest that interferes with the health of forests and hinders the development of the fruit tree industry, and its spread is influenced by changes in abiotic factors and human activities. Therefore, exploring their spatial distribution patterns and potential distribution areas under such conditions is crucial for maintaining forest ecosystem security. This study analyzed the spatial differentiation characteristics of the geographic distribution pattern of A. bungii in China using Moran's I and the Getis-Ord General G index. Hot spot distribution areas were identified using Getis-Ord Gi*. An optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution areas of A. bungii within China under four shared economic pathways by combining multivariate environmental data: (1) prediction of natural environmental variables predicted under current climate models; (2) prediction of natural environmental variables + human activities under current climate models; and (3) prediction of natural environmental variables under the future climate models (2050s and 2070s). Meanwhile, MigClim was used to simulate the unoccupied suitable area in the presence of obstacles under future climate change. The results showed that human activities, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and precipitation of the wettest month had positive effects on the distribution of A. bungii. However, in the current period, human activities drastically reduced the survival area of A. bungii, and its suitable distribution area was mainly concentrated in the eastern and central regions of China. Under the influence of climate change in the future, the habitat of A. bungii will gradually increase. Additionally, the MigClim model indicates that the area unoccupied by A. bungii has been on a continuous increasing trend. This study provides a positive reference for the prevention and control of A. bungii and the maintenance of forest health and ecosystem security, and provides important theoretical guidance for researchers, policymakers, and governments.}, }
@article {pmid39543264, year = {2024}, author = {Koç, DE and Ustaoğlu, B and Biltekin, D}, title = {Effect of climate change on the habitat suitability of the relict species Zelkova carpinifolia Spach using ensembled species distribution modelling.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {27967}, pmid = {39543264}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Forests ; Algorithms ; }, abstract = {Zelkova carpinifolia is a Tertiary relict tree distributed in Hyrcanian and Colchic forests. Most of its habitat has been destroyed in the last century. This study aimed to model potentially suitable habitat areas for Zelkova carpinifolia from the past to the future. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Future (2061-2080) models include 19 bioclimatic variables from the CCSM4 global circulation model Pearson correlation coefficient was used to assess collinearity between variables and ten variables were selected for distribution modelling. Habitat suitability was estimated using the Biodiversity Modelling (BIOMOD) ensemble modelling method by combining the results of ten algorithm models using the R package "biomod2". The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and true skills statistics (TSS) were calculated to evaluate the performance of the models. The contributions of the environmental variables were calculated separately for each algorithm model. According to the results obtained, the most effective bioclimatic variable in the distribution of the species is temperature seasonality (Bio4). The modelling results revealed that Zelkova carpinifolia survived in suitable refuge areas in western Asia during the LGM. These distribution areas have remained largely unchanged and even expanded. The future model results predict that the suitable habitats of the species will narrow in the Hyrcanian forests south of Caspian Sea and that more suitable conditions will be found around the Caucasus. Given the increasing destruction of these valuable plant species due to human activities and the expected negative impacts of climate change in the future, it is important to develop policies and strategies for the protection of Zelkova carpinifolia's habitat, the creation of nature reserves, and sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid39542490, year = {2024}, author = {Seto, I and Worby, N and Szurmak, J and Gerstle, D and Tough, R and Galloway, T}, title = {Measurement of climate change-related food (in)security and food sovereignty in Canada's northern communities and the circumpolar region: a scoping review protocol.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {e084403}, doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2024-084403}, pmid = {39542490}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Canada ; *Food Security ; Arctic Regions ; Research Design ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; Food Supply ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change impacts the circumpolar region (including northern Canada) at a greater magnitude than other parts of the world. This affects food (in)security as well as food sovereignty. This scoping review aims to map the methods of measuring food (in)security and food sovereignty across northern Canada and the circumpolar region in support of the Yukon Government's climate change adaptation strategy.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will adhere to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews, and work will be conducted according to the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) manual chapter on scoping reviews. Academic librarians develop the academic literature and grey literature search strategies, and the search strategies are further revised through iterative stages of peer review. The search strategy includes 7 academic literature databases, 11 grey literature databases, over 50 websites and the University of Toronto Libraries catalogue. Covidence, an evidence synthesis software, will be used for screening and extraction. The extraction chart will be developed and piloted by our team. A minimum of two reviewers will conduct screening, and conflicts will be resolved through discussion. Data will be extracted by one reviewer and verified by a second. Conflicts will be resolved through discussion or by a third reviewer.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This project does not require ethical approval as it is secondary research; data will be extracted from published academic research papers, dissertations, and publicly available reports and documents. Our dissemination plan includes presentations at conferences, submission to international peer-reviewed journals and a workshop on the search strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39542472, year = {2024}, author = {Lehrer, L and Geiger, M and Sprengholz, P and Jenny, M and Temme, HL and Shamsrizi, P and Eitze, S and Betsch, C}, title = {Study protocol of the planetary health action survey PACE: a serial cross-sectional survey to assess the readiness to act against climate change.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {e091093}, doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2024-091093}, pmid = {39542472}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Germany ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Research Design ; Global Health ; Health Policy ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is a paramount global health threat with multifaceted implications. Societal change is required to mitigate the negative effects of climate change, as well as help people adapt to the associated health risks. This requires situation-specific, large-scale data to help scientists and policymakers understand public perceptions and behaviours and identify the levers to increase public readiness to act against climate change and protect health. The Planetary Health Action Survey (PACE) assesses this readiness to act as a regular monitoring of representative samples in Germany. The ongoing monitoring seeks to develop and refine an integrated conceptual model of the trait-like readiness to act, comprising policy acceptance, political participation and individual behaviours as indicators of the trait. It also proposes as set of determinants to explain different levels of readiness to act. This study protocol provides newly developed valid measurement instruments and the methodological details of the monitoring.<br><br>METHOD AND ANALYSIS: PACE assesses indicators of the readiness to act and a set of sociocognitive factors predicting the readiness to act in continuous cross-sectional data collections. The latter comprise climate change knowledge, trust in institutions, perceived health risks, self-efficacy, social norms and perceived effectiveness of policy measures. The online questionnaire is updated regularly. Data collection involves non-probabilistic quota samples from Germany (n&#x2248;1000 at each collection).<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The project adheres to the ethical guidelines of the University of Erfurt and the German Research Foundation. Ethical clearance was granted by the University's Institutional Review Board (No #20220525/No #2024-01). Participants are guaranteed confidentiality and anonymity, and informed consent is obtained before participation. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals. Additionally, we aim to inform and empower the public and support stakeholders (media, policymakers, climate protection organisations) in preparing climate communication and assisting policymakers through the project website including an interactive tool, detailed reports and short summaries for practitioners.}, }
@article {pmid39542151, year = {2024}, author = {Enukoha, C and Talbalaghi, A and Hassandoust, S and Fossati, F and Bazzoni, M and Parisato, S and Puccioni, D and Erbetta, L and Ghaffari, P}, title = {Interplay of climate change with physiological changes in adult Aedes albopictus.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {260}, number = {}, pages = {107467}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107467}, pmid = {39542151}, issn = {1873-6254}, abstract = {The effect of unprecedented climate change conditions on the environment has attracted the attention of experts from various disciplines who wish to predict its evolution. This is due to its interaction with population health and people's quality of life. The emergence of vector-borne diseases (VBD) in Europe, particularly caused by invasive mosquitoes, has resulted in autochthonous transmission of Dengue and Chikungunya virus cases. In this contribution, we delve into the significant decline in the population of tiger mosquitoes and the noticeable reduction in their size, related to the changes that occur often in years with low rainfall and high temperatures during the summer months. This change can be traced to the morphology of the species, which has been analysed in this work and related to the possible enhanced transmission efficiency and susceptibility of vectors to VBD dissemination. Due to the greater susceptibility to pathogen replication and subsequent transmission of the pathogens to a host during blood feeding, these morphologically distinct species relatively seem to be an efficient vector. The relationship between the sizes of studied mosquitoes and rainfall levels requires more research by mathematical epidemiologists.}, }
@article {pmid39541399, year = {2024}, author = {Zavaleta-Cortijo, C and Silvera-Ccallo, R and Lancha-Rucoba, G and Chanchari, J and Inuma, N and Pizango, M and Morales-Ancajima, V and Miranda-Cuadros, M and Aparco, JP and Valdivia-Gago, A and Nunta-Guimaraes, R and Antazú, T and Velez-Quevedo, J and Fernandez-Neyra, C and Carcamo, C and Greenwood, D and Cade, J and Ford, JD and Harper, S and Miranda, JJ}, title = {Indigenous knowledge and leadership for climate change adaptation in nutrition.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {4}, number = {11}, pages = {e0003917}, pmid = {39541399}, issn = {2767-3375}, }
@article {pmid39540846, year = {2024}, author = {Delanghe, J and Speeckaert, M and De Buyzere, M}, title = {Climate change, vitamin D and the viking abandonment in Greenland.}, journal = {Hormone molecular biology and clinical investigation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39540846}, issn = {1868-1891}, }
@article {pmid39539803, year = {2024}, author = {Xie, X and Hao, M and Ding, F and Scheffran, J and Ide, T and Maystadt, JF and Qian, Y and Wang, Q and Chen, S and Wu, J and Sun, K and Ma, T and Jiang, D}, title = {The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways.}, journal = {Environmental research communications}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {112002}, pmid = {39539803}, issn = {2515-7620}, abstract = {The potential impacts of climate change on violent conflict are high on the agenda of scholars and policy makers. This article reviews existing literature to clarify the relationship between climate change and conflict risk, focusing on the roles of temperature and precipitation. While some debate remains, substantial evidence shows that climate change increases conflict risk under specific conditions. We examine four key pathways through which climate affects conflict: (i) economic shocks, (ii), agricultural decline, (iii) natural resources competition, and (iv) migration. Key gaps include limited long-term data, insufficient integrated studies, and the inadequate understanding of causal mechanisms, necessitating transdisciplinary research that addresses social vulnerability and underlying pathways.}, }
@article {pmid39539237, year = {2024}, author = {Singh, N and Wigmann, C and Vijay, P and Phuleria, HC and Kress, S and Majmudar, G and Kong, R and Krutmann, J and Schikowski, T}, title = {Combined Effect of Ambient Temperature and Relative Humidity on Skin Aging Phenotypes in the Era of Climate Change: Results From an Indian Cohort Study.}, journal = {Dermatitis : contact, atopic, occupational, drug}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1089/derm.2024.0301}, pmid = {39539237}, issn = {2162-5220}, abstract = {Background: There is no doubt that global warming, with its extreme heat events, is having an increasing impact on human health. Heat is not independent of ambient temperature but acts synergistically with relative humidity (RH) to increase the risk of several diseases, such as cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. Although the skin is the organ in direct contact with the environment, it is currently unknown whether skin health is similarly affected. Objective: While mechanistic studies have demonstrated the mechanism of thermal aging, this is the first epidemiological study to investigate the effect of long-term exposure to heat index (HI) as a combined function of elevated ambient temperature and RH on skin aging phenotypes in Indian women. Methods: The skin aging phenotypes of 1510 Indian women were assessed using the Score of Intrinsic and Extrinsic Skin Aging (SCINEXA™) scoring tool. We used data on ambient temperature and RH, combined into an HI with solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR), and air pollution (particulate matter <2.5 µm [PM2.5]; nitrogen dioxide [NO2]) from secondary data sources with a 5-year mean residential exposure window. An adjusted ordinal multivariate logistic regression model was used to assess the effects of HI on skin aging phenotypes. Results: HI increased pigmentation such as hyperpigmented macula on the forehead (odds ratios [OR]: 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12, 1.54) and coarse wrinkles such as crow's feet (OR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.30) and under-eye wrinkles (OR: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.47). These associations were robust to the confounding effects of solar UVR and age. Prolonged exposure to extreme heat, as indicated by high HI, contributes to skin aging phenotypes. Conclusion: Thus, ambient temperature and RH are important factors in assessing the skin aging exposome.}, }
@article {pmid39539050, year = {2024}, author = {Schulman, EB and Chen, K and Chang, AY}, title = {Exploring the health impacts of climate change: Challenges and considerations for health services research.}, journal = {Health services research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1475-6773.14408}, pmid = {39539050}, issn = {1475-6773}, }
@article {pmid39537330, year = {2024}, author = {Falce, E}, title = {Time to talk to patients about climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {387}, number = {}, pages = {q2444}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q2444}, pmid = {39537330}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid39535985, year = {2024}, author = {Anjos, LJS and Gonçalves, GSR and Dutra, VAB and Rosa, AG and Santos, LB and Barros, MNR and de Souza, EB and de Toledo, PM}, title = {Brazil nut journey under future climate change in Amazon.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {11}, pages = {e0312308}, pmid = {39535985}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Brazil ; *Bertholletia ; Biodiversity ; Rainforest ; Ecosystem ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Climate change is among the principal threats to global terrestrial biodiversity, especially to megadiverse ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest. In this study, we investigate how it could affect an iconic forest species-Bertholletia excelsa-(the Brazil nut) which has values in multiple dimensions in an Amazonian context. We used an ensemble from various distribution modeling methods designed for four different climate scenarios from CMIP6 by the end of the century. Then, we simulate how spatial dynamics under climate change, including explicitly dispersal events, can affect the persistence, colonization, and potential extinction of Bertholletia excelsa in the future. Our results show that by the end of the century there would be a generalized loss of suitability on the Amazon biome, regardless of the climate scenario evaluated, which could promote a significant loss (up to 94%) of the area available for the species via extinction. Our results also show that, in the future, the species would colonize higher altitudes in search of favorable conditions for its survival. Finally, we detected that areas that had previously become unsuitable because of climate change would have favorable conditions by the end of the century. Such an outcome could be useful in fostering an active restoration agenda that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change on species in this study.}, }
@article {pmid39534651, year = {2024}, author = {Orchinik, R and Dubey, R and Gershman, SJ and Powell, DM and Bhui, R}, title = {Learning from and about scientists: Consensus messaging shapes perceptions of climate change and climate scientists.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {3}, number = {11}, pages = {pgae485}, pmid = {39534651}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {Despite overwhelming scientific consensus on the existence of human-caused climate change, public opinion among Americans remains split. Directly informing people of scientific consensus is among the most prominent strategies for climate communication, yet the reasons for its effectiveness and its limitations are not fully understood. Here, we propose that consensus messaging provides information not only about the existence of climate change but also traits of climate scientists themselves. In a large (n = 2 , 545) nationally representative survey experiment, we examine how consensus information affects belief in human-caused climate change by shaping perceptions of climate scientist credibility. In the control group (n = 847), we first show that people learn both from and about climate scientists when presented with consensus and that perceived scientist credibility (especially skill) mediates up to about 40% of the total effect of consensus information on climate belief. We demonstrate that perceptions of climate scientists are malleable with two novel interventions that increase belief in climate change above and beyond consensus information.}, }
@article {pmid39534879, year = {2024}, author = {Molina, B and Palau, CE and Calvo-Gallego, J}, title = {Enriching Earth observation datasets through semantics for climate change applications: The EIFFEL ontology.}, journal = {Open research Europe}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {133}, pmid = {39534879}, issn = {2732-5121}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Earth Observation (EO) datasets have become vital for decision support applications, particularly from open satellite portals that provide extensive historical datasets. These datasets can be integrated with in-situ data to power artificial intelligence mechanisms for accurate forecasting and trend analysis. However, researchers and data scientists face challenges in finding appropriate EO datasets due to inconsistent metadata structures and varied keyword descriptions. This misalignment hinders the discoverability and usability of EO data.<br><br>METHODS: To address this challenge, the EIFFEL ontology (EIFF-O) is proposed. EIFF-O introduces taxonomies and ontologies to provide (i) global classification of EO data and (ii) linkage between different datasets through common concepts. The taxonomies specified by the European Association of Remote Sensing Companies (EARSC) have been formalized and implemented in EIFF-O. Additionally, EIFF-O incorporates:1.An Essential Climate Variable (ECV) ontology, defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), is embedded and tailored for Climate Change (CC) applications.2.The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) ontology is included to facilitate linking datasets to specific targets.3.The ontology extends schema.org vocabularies and promotes the use of JavaScript Object Notation for Linked Data (JSON-LD) formats for semantic web integration.<br><br>RESULTS: EIFF-O provides a unified framework that enhances the discoverability, usability, and application of EO datasets. The implementation of EIFF-O allows data providers and users to bridge the gap between varied metadata descriptions and structured classification, thereby facilitating better linkage and integration of EO datasets.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The EIFFEL ontology represents a significant advancement in the organization and application of EO datasets. By embedding ECV and SDG ontologies and leveraging semantic web technologies, EIFF-O not only streamlines the data discovery process but also supports diverse applications, particularly in Climate Change monitoring and Sustainable Development Goals achievement. The open-source nature of the ontology and its associated tools promotes rapid adoption among developers.}, }
@article {pmid39533054, year = {2024}, author = {Aluja, M and Acosta, E and Enciso-Ortiz, E and Ortega-Casas, R and Altúzar-Molina, A and Camacho-Vázquez, C and Monribot-Villanueva, JL and Guerrero-Analco, JA and Pascacio-Villafán, C and Guillén, L}, title = {Expansion to new habitats and a new commercial host (Malus domestica) by Anastrepha ludens (Tephritidae) likely influenced by global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {27729}, pmid = {39533054}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {FORDECYT-PRONACES/848296/2020//Mexican Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog&#xed;a - CONACYT currently CONAHCyT/ ; 2020-2022//Programa Nacional de Moscas de la Fruta (DGSV-SENASICA-SADER)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Malus/parasitology ; *Tephritidae/physiology/growth &amp; development ; *Global Warming ; *Ecosystem ; Mexico ; Fruit ; }, abstract = {Anastrepha ludens (Mexican fruit-fly) is a highly polyphagous fruit fly species (Tephritidae) attacking wild and commercial fruit from Mexico to Panama. Here we report on a recent habitat and host range expansion as A. ludens lately started to attack apples (Malus domestica) in Mexico, a phenomenon likely influenced by global warming. We document natural infestations in apple-growing regions in the States of Nuevo León and Hidalgo, Mexico where A. ludens has started to attack the cultivars 'Golden Delicious', 'Rayada' and 'Criolla'. No infestations were found in the apple-growing region of Zacatlán, Puebla. To determine apple cultivar susceptibility to the attack of this emerging pest, we ran forced infestation assays in enclosed fruit-bearing branches in all three apple-growing regions and studied the metabolome of all fruit. A clear pattern emerged indicating that the cultivar 'Golden Delicious' was the most susceptible, with 'Criolla' exhibiting complete resistance in one location (Puebla). Although A. ludens can develop in this new host, development rates (egg-adult) and adult emergence were affected when compared with the performance in the natural host 'Marsh' grapefruit. Warmer temperatures and specific secondary metabolites of some apple cultivars are likely contributing to the territorial and host expansion of A. ludens.}, }
@article {pmid39534119, year = {2024}, author = {Anantapong, K and Moura, HF and Udomratn, P and Persaud, A and Javed, A and Ramachandran, P and Castaldelli-Maia, JM and Torales, J and Ventriglio, A and Bhugra, D}, title = {Geopsychiatry: Climate change, migration, and mental health.}, journal = {Industrial psychiatry journal}, volume = {33}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S257-S260}, pmid = {39534119}, issn = {0972-6748}, abstract = {Geopsychiatry, a newly emerging discipline within psychiatry, examines the influence of geopolitical determinants on mental health and mental illness. Geopolitical determinants include conflict and wars, global austerity, climate change, public health crises (such as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)), and migration. This study focuses on the two significant areas of climate change and migration. Climate change can affect mental health directly or indirectly in a variety of ways, including chronic (global warming) and acute (heat waves and environmental disasters) events. Certain groups of migrants, including migrating children, older migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers, are particularly vulnerable to developing psychiatric disorders. The convergence of climate change and migration is significantly complicating the already highly difficult situation for mental health services worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where access to care is limited. Despite this, the majority of studies examining mental health impacts of these events originate from high-income countries, and there is still a lack of effective preventive and treatment strategies. In 2023, the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) set up a Special Interest Group on Geopsychiatry with a clear and explicit aim to summarize current evidence and propose strategies to tackle geopolitical challenges on mental health. The Special Interest Group aims to support regional and local groups across all psychiatric disciplines and stakeholders dedicated to building local consensus, prioritizing research, crafting policies, and collating and sharing good clinical practices. With such significant effort, we can expand our understanding and collaboration on geopsychiatry and make changes to the care of people with geopolitical and mental health challenges around the globe.}, }
@article {pmid39533145, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Rice is not as nice with global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39533145}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39533141, year = {2024}, author = {Conroy, G}, title = {Global warming is on the cusp of crucial 1.5 °C threshold, suggest ice-core data.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39533141}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39532753, year = {2024}, author = {Vilavan, S and Das, D and Ullah, H and Gade, SA and Ahmed, SF and Cha-Um, S and Praseartkul, P and Datta, A and Himanshu, SK}, title = {Exploring the impacts of climate change and identifying potential adaptation strategies for sustainable rice production in Thailand's Lower Chao Phraya Basin through crop simulation modeling.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {12}, pages = {1192}, pmid = {39532753}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Oryza/growth &amp; development/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Thailand ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Agriculture/methods ; Agricultural Irrigation/methods ; Models, Theoretical ; Crop Production/methods ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {The lower Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) in Thailand, a major rice-producing area, is grappling with increased water scarcity alongside more frequent floods and droughts, necessitating effective adaptation strategies to sustain agricultural productivity. This study assesses the impacts of climate change on rice yield and irrigation water use, using the DSSAT-CERES-Rice model. Based on these findings, potential genotype- and management-based adaptation strategies were recommended. The model was calibrated and evaluated using the data from field experiments conducted at the Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand during 2017-2018 and 2021-2022. The grain yield and irrigation water use between baseline (2010-2022) and future climate periods (early-century: 2023-2040, mid-century: 2041-2070, and late-century: 2071-2100) were compared. Future climate projections were based on five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 project under three scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The model calibration and evaluation demonstrated very good performance statistics, with a d-index of 0.85 during both calibration and evaluation. The model simulations indicated that the maximum and minimum temperatures in the lower CPRB are projected to increase by ~ 2 °C and ~ 4 °C in the late century under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. Consequently, rice yields are projected to decline by up to 33%, and irrigation water usage to increase by 53% under SSP585 by the late century. Based on the findings, the following major genotype- and management-based adaptation strategies are recommended: (1) Developing heat-tolerant rice cultivars to mitigate yield losses under future climate scenarios, (2) Developing rice cultivars with extended grain-filling duration to enhance both irrigation water use and yield, (3) Shifting the planting date 1-2 weeks earlier (from baseline planting date of 20 July), and shifting fertilizer application date 1-2 weeks earlier (from baseline fertilizer application date of 20 September) for the panicle initiation stage to improve yield, and (4) Optimizing irrigation thresholds (remaining soil water at which to irrigate) to reduce irrigation water use without compromising yield. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of genotype improvement and adaptive management practices in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on rice production in the lower CPRB.}, }
@article {pmid39532604, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, B and Xu, X and Wang, S and Yang, T and Liu, Z}, title = {Corrigendum to "Carbon dioxide fertilization enhanced carbon sink offset by climate change and land use in Amazonia on a centennial scale" [Sci. Total Environ. 955 (2024) 176903].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {177435}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177435}, pmid = {39532604}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid39531521, year = {2024}, author = {de Souza, AC and Pires, AS and Donohue, K and de Mattos, EA}, title = {Will climate change constrain the altitudinal range of threatened species? Experimental evidence from a biodiversity hotspot.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/plb.13734}, pmid = {39531521}, issn = {1438-8677}, support = {13864-1//Rufford Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {A fundamental goal in ecology and evolution is to explain the factors that shape species' abundance and range limits. Evaluating the performance of early life-stages across an altitudinal gradient can be valuable for understanding what factors shape range limits and for predicting how plant species may respond to climate change. To experimentally evaluate the presence of local adaptation in a threatened palm (Euterpe edulis) at early life-stages, we reciprocally sowed seeds at two contrasting elevations. In addition, to evaluate the effect of seed predation on E. edulis seed germination and seedling establishment, seed addition experiments were conducted at three different elevations. Our results showed no evidence of local adaptation in the early life-stages for the two E. edulis populations. We observed lower germination and seedling performance of both E. edulis populations at the low-elevation site. The exclusion of seed predation increased seedling establishment across all elevations. Seed predation and dry soil conditions were the main factors that constrained seedling establishment at the upper altitudinal limit and at the lower elevation, respectively. Climate change in the study area will result in warmer and drier environmental conditions. The lack of local adaptation and the lower performance of both E. edulis populations in warm and dry conditions, combined with a higher seed predation at the upper altitudinal limit, might cause an altitudinal range contraction, increasing the vulnerability of this threatened species to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39531124, year = {2024}, author = {Phoeurn, CA and Degré, A and Oeurng, C and Ket, P}, title = {Evaluating the impact of climate change on yield and water use efficiency of different dry-season rice varieties cultivated under conventional and alternate wetting and drying conditions.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {12}, pages = {1190}, pmid = {39531124}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Oryza/growth &amp; development ; *Agriculture/methods ; Seasons ; Biomass ; Water ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {This study is the first attempt to assess rice cultivation under alternate wetting and drying (AWD) and continuous flooding (CF) using the latest scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), utilizing AquaCrop Model. Field experiments were conducted during the dry season 2023 to get the model calibration and validation input. We used two shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) developed within Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and projected the rice growth during 2040-2070. The simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of AquaCrop in capturing crop development across treatments and varieties. This model's accuracy in simulating canopy cover (nRMSE = 14-32.5%), time series biomass (nRMSE = 22-42.5%), grain yield (Pd = 4.36-24.38%), and total biomass (nRMSE = 0.39-18.98%) was generally acceptable. The analysis of future climate shows an increasing trend in the monthly average temperature by 0.8 °C (Tmin) and 1.3 °C (Tmax) in both scenarios. While ETo values were not anticipated, rainfall was expected to increase with average values of 5.62 mm to 11.25 mm. In addition, the study found that varieties with growing periods longer than 93 days after transplanting (DAT), such as CAR15 and Sen Kra Ob, were most impacted by heat stress conditions, leading to reduced yield, harvest index (HI), and water use efficiency (WUE). In our case, CAR15 and Sen Kra Ob grain yields were reduced by 53% and 8%, respectively. AWD maintains superior WUE compared with CF regardless of the type of varieties, suggesting this technique is a drought-adaptive strategy.}, }
@article {pmid39529493, year = {2024}, author = {Parnes, MF and Weiss, EM}, title = {Digital Mental Health Innovations in the Face of Climate Change: Navigating a Sustainable Future.}, journal = {Psychiatric services (Washington, D.C.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {appips20240327}, doi = {10.1176/appi.ps.20240327}, pmid = {39529493}, issn = {1557-9700}, abstract = {Climate change poses substantial challenges to mental health, with increased frequency of extreme weather events and environmental degradation exacerbating stress, anxiety, trauma, and existential concerns. Digital innovations, particularly artificial intelligence and digital phenotyping, offer promising avenues to mitigate climate-related mental health burdens. The integration of digital tools into climate-related mental health care necessitates careful consideration of issues of access to and adoption of solutions. Future research should evaluate the effectiveness and scalability of digital interventions to address the mental health impacts of climate change through collaborative efforts involving clinicians, environmental health specialists, bioethicists, policy makers, and technology developers.}, }
@article {pmid39528616, year = {2024}, author = {Aniye, HW and Bekele, T and Worku, W}, title = {Perception of smallholder farmers about climate change and its impacts on crop production across agroecological zones of the Gassera District, Southeastern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {27632}, pmid = {39528616}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Ethiopia ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers/psychology ; Humans ; Female ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Male ; *Crop Production ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Agriculture ; Rural Population ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Perception ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Climate change and variability have threatened rainfed agriculture by affecting the livelihoods of rural communities in Ethiopia. The study area, Gassera District, is among the high-potential crop production areas of the Bale Zone and is severely impacted by recurrent droughts resulting from climate change. This study evaluated smallholder farmers' perceptions of significant climate change and its effects on food crop production across the agroecological zones of the Gassera District. A cross-sectional survey design was employed to collect data from 444 farm households via multistage random sampling techniques. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were used for the data analysis. The results revealed that 98.5% of the interviewed farmers were aware of climate variability and that 51.6% understood its impact to a reasonable extent. However, over half of the farmers did not perceive climate change as the greatest threat to their livelihood. Most farmers experienced rain becoming more erratic, starting late, and ending early as medium climatic factors (60.4%, 68.1%, and 66.2%, respectively), affecting their crop production. The results revealed that rainfall had a negative and insignificant decreasing trend (2.92 mm/year). The annual mean temperature exhibited a positive and statistically significant increasing trend (Ρ < 0.01). Crop production is positively and linearly correlated with the amount of annual rainfall at the Ρ ≤ 0.05 level of significance. The findings revealed that the greatest crop yield loss was associated with lowland agroecology. The MLR results revealed that farmer agroecology, age, sex, and chemical use had substantial impacts on crop yield loss. We urge farmers to understand the long-term effects of climate change on their livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid39525526, year = {2024}, author = {Plášek, V and Číhal, L and Müller, F and Pöltl, M and Wierzgoń, M and Ochyra, R}, title = {Newly found and rediscovered hornworts (Anthocerotophyta) in Poland: Indicators of climate change impact in Central Europe.}, journal = {PhytoKeys}, volume = {248}, number = {}, pages = {237-261}, pmid = {39525526}, issn = {1314-2011}, abstract = {In 2023, field research in south-western Poland led to the noteworthy discovery of two hornworts: Notothylasorbicularis, a species previously unrecorded in this country, and the rediscovery of Anthocerosneesii for the Polish bryoflora. These findings are significant as they suggest a response to climate change, which is facilitating the range expansion of hornworts within Central Europe. Detailed descriptions of the new localities for both species are provided, highlighting the specific environmental conditions and habitats where they were found. Distribution maps for Notothylasorbicularis and Anthocerosneesii in Poland are provided, as well as SEM micrographs of spores. Additionally, a key to the identification of Polish hornwort species is also included. Furthermore, a model projecting the potential future spread of these hornworts within Poland and the broader Central European region is presented. This model considers climatic variables and habitat availability, offering insights into possible range shifts. This study contributes to the growing body of evidence that climate change is a driving factor in the redistribution of bryophytes.}, }
@article {pmid39506664, year = {2024}, author = {Lindhe, N and Berg, M and Andersson, K and Andersson, G}, title = {Experiences of undergoing internet-delivered cognitive behavioural therapy for climate change-related distress: a qualitative study.}, journal = {BMC psychiatry}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {775}, pmid = {39506664}, issn = {1471-244X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Cognitive Behavioral Therapy/methods ; Male ; Female ; *Climate Change ; *Qualitative Research ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; *Adaptation, Psychological ; Psychological Distress ; Internet-Based Intervention ; Internet ; Stress, Psychological/therapy/psychology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Internet-delivered cognitive behavioural therapy (ICBT) has previously shown promise in effectively treating climate change-related distress. The aim of the present study was to investigate participants' experiences of undergoing a novel ICBT program targeting psychological symptoms associated with climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Telephone interviews were conducted with nine participants who had received eight weeks of ICBT for climate change-related distress. A semi-structured interview guide was used to gather information about participants' experiences of undergoing treatment. Data were transcribed and analyzed using thematic analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: The thematic analysis resulted in three overarching themes: (1) Same old feelings, brand new strategies, (2) Bumps in the road, and (3) Personalized climate engagement. Participants experienced that they had developed new coping strategies for handling their emotions, encountered challenges during the treatment period, and adapted their pro-environmental behaviour to their individual needs and circumstances.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that participants were able to utilize the treatment material in different ways, resulting in a variety of emotional, cognitive, and behavioural changes. While the treatment was generally described as helpful, participants also raised some concerns regarding the treatment format. These findings can inform further development of ICBT targeting psychological symptoms associated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39525076, year = {2024}, author = {Khadilkar, A and Waddell, L and Acheson, ES and Ogden, NH}, title = {Perspectives on blastomycosis in Canada in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {50}, number = {11}, pages = {400-411}, doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v50i11a04}, pmid = {39525076}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Blastomycosis is a disease of potentially varied presentations caused by thermally dimorphic fungi that appear as mold at ambient temperatures and transform to yeast at body temperature. Inhalation of aerosolized fungal spores represents the primary mode of transmission. Exposure may follow outdoor activities that disturb soil, which is warm, moist, acidic and rich in organic debris, particularly within forested areas and in proximity to waterways. Blastomycosis is endemic to several parts of Canada, but is only reportable in Ontario and Manitoba, with Northwestern Ontario being considered a hyperendemic area with average annual incidence rates of over 25 cases per 100,000 population. Delays in diagnosis and treatment are frequently observed as the symptoms and imaging findings of blastomycosis may initially be mistaken for community-acquired pneumonia, tuberculosis or malignancy, which can result in interim disease progression and worsening clinical outcomes. Risks from fungal infections such as blastomycosis are likely to increase with climate change-associated shifts in temperature and rainfall, and this may contribute to the geographic expansion of cases, a phenomenon that appears to be already underway. Further research investigating the ecological niche of Blastomyces and its climate sensitivity could help facilitate better modelling of the potential impacts of climate change on risks to Canadians and inform more effective methods of exposure prevention. Early clinical recognition and treatment of blastomycosis remain the key to minimizing morbidity and mortality.}, }
@article {pmid39524332, year = {2024}, author = {Arce, G and García-Alaminos, &#xc1; and Ortiz, M and Zafrilla, J}, title = {Attributing climate-change-related disaster displacement responsibilities along global production chains.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {11}, pages = {111124}, doi = {10.1016/j.isci.2024.111124}, pmid = {39524332}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Climate change creates hostile living conditions in various regions, provoking climate-driven migration. The literature points to a polarization between the countries responsible for climate change and the regions suffering its consequences. Given this dichotomy, this study analyses the link between unsustainable consumption by world powers and the increasing vulnerability of some developing countries. We identify the most vulnerable countries to climate migrations and perform a responsibility assessment on environmental migration through historical consumption-based contributions to climate change. The main results show that the areas most vulnerable to climate migration are low-income countries from Asia and Africa, whereas the US, China, Japan, and Russia are the major economies responsible for climate change driving those migrations. According to our estimations, top responsible countries should contribute 0.2%-0.5% of their GDP to a global financial fund for climate migrants. This work supports the principle of climate justice regarding worldwide current challenges.}, }
@article {pmid39523661, year = {2024}, author = {Lin, XN and Ma, CY and Hu, LS and Liao, ML and Ma, LX and Teske, PR and Hoffmann, A and Dong, YW}, title = {Genomics-Informed Range Predictions Under Global Warming Reveal Reduced Adaptive Diversity Whilst Buffering Range Shifts for a Marine Snail.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {e17571}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17571}, pmid = {39523661}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {42025604//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 42106112//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 42106141//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Snails/genetics/physiology ; *Global Warming ; China ; *Genetic Variation ; Phylogeography ; Genomics ; Climate Change ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Ecosystem ; Animal Distribution ; }, abstract = {Understanding the genetic basis of local adaptation in thermal performance is useful for predicting species distribution shifts under anthropogenic climate change. Many species are distributed across multiple biogeographic regions, and the uniquely adapted populations in each region may respond to future ocean warming with distinct distribution changes. In the present study, we investigated phylogeographic patterns, thermal sensitivity, and genetic differentiation in the intertidal snail Littorina brevicula along China's coast. Whole-genome sequencing results based on a newly assembled chromosome-level genome revealed two genetic lineages, with a north-south divergence that is linked to the thermal environment. Within each lineage, individuals could be further subdivided into genetic subgroups that differ at key genomic loci underpinning differences in upper heat tolerance. Heat stress drives adaptive divergence across multiple levels of organization, from the individual to the biogeographic level. Taking into account genetic diversity associated with variation in heat tolerance, a physiological species distribution model (pSDM) was applied to predict the distributions of the different genetic subgroups in response to climate change. Both northern and southern lineages were predicted to experience declines in habitat suitability under a 4°C future warming scenario, and that a genotypic subset of snails from the southern lineage may even be driven to extinction. These findings illustrate that even when a species' range is maintained, it can nonetheless experience a significant decrease in adaptive diversity as a result of climate change. The integrated approach presented here, which considered both physiological and adaptive genetic variation at the level of individuals within a biogeographical context, provided new insights into how marine species can respond to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid39523014, year = {2024}, author = {Suzuki, H and Nunome, M and Yanase, T and Eto, T and Harada, M and Kinoshita, G}, title = {Impact of late Quaternary climate change on the demographic history of Japanese field voles and hares revealed by mitochondrial cytochrome b sequences.}, journal = {Genes &amp; genetic systems}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1266/ggs.24-00145}, pmid = {39523014}, issn = {1880-5779}, abstract = {The mitochondrial cytochrome b gene of the Japanese field vole (Microtus montebelli), an herbivorous rodent, was subjected to an analysis of sequence variation with the objective of elucidating the population histories of this species. Construction of a phylogenetic tree revealed the existence of several region-specific lineages in Honshu and Kyushu, which were evenly separated from each other. In consideration of the documented time-dependent evolutionary rates of rodents, the estimated divergence times indicate that the region-specific lineages of M. montebelli emerged 160,000-300,000 years ago. In a haplotype network, the region-specific lineages from northern and central Honshu tended to show star-shaped clusters, with additional internal star-shaped clusters, indicative of two periods of population expansion. The onsets of the expansions were estimated to have occurred 15,000 and 10,000 years ago, respectively, suggestive of association with the two periods of rapid warming following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In contrast, such predicted post-LGM expansion events were less pronounced in the southern lineages, implying latitudinal dependence of the effect of the LGM on population dynamics. Sado Island haplotypes exhibited a network with a star-shaped pattern and a 10,000-year-old expansion signal, surrounded by a Honshu haplotype cluster with a 15,000-year-old expansion signal, suggesting contribution of the post-LGM expansion events in the formation of the Sado population. A reanalysis of Cytb sequence of the Japanese hare (Lepus brachyurus), which has a similar geographic range to the voles, yielded results that were consistent with those of the vole analysis, confirming that the characteristics of the post-LGM expansion event were dependent on latitude, involved two successive expansion events, and enabled migration across deep straits. It seems reasonable to infer that the environmental changes that occurred during the warm periods following the LGM were a contributing factor in the expansion of the distribution range of newly emerged haplotype groups.}, }
@article {pmid39522871, year = {2024}, author = {Shen, Y and Dai, Y and Feng, Y and Peng, W and Liu, J and You, W and Luo, X and Ke, C and Chen, N}, title = {The weak association between hypoxia tolerance and thermal tolerance increases the susceptibility of abalone to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {120324}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.120324}, pmid = {39522871}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {The simultaneous occurrence of high temperatures and hypoxia events caused mass die-offs of aquatic animals. It is crucial to investigate the relationship between hypoxia tolerance and thermal tolerance of aquatic animals to predict the biological and ecological outcomes under global climate change scenarios. In this study, the hypoxia tolerance and thermal tolerance of Pacific abalone, Haliotis discus hannai, were measured by methods based on adhesion capacity (hypoxia adhesion duration and heat adhesion duration) and heart rate fluctuations (breakpoint of dissolved oxygen and Arrhenius breakpoint temperature). Weak correlations were found between hypoxia tolerance and thermal tolerance (Spearman correlation, r = -0.09, P = 0.2069; Pearson correlation, r = -0.04, P = 0.3313). Furthermore, a total of 21 significant SNPs and 19 candidate genes (such as cubn, lrp6, gria2, rft2, and casp8) were identified to be associated with hypoxia tolerance of Pacific abalone by conducting whole genome resequencing and genome-wide association study (GWAS). But there was no overlap between candidate genes associated with hypoxia tolerance and candidate genes associated with thermal tolerance, validating the weak correlation between hypoxia tolerance and thermal tolerance. This study highlights that individuals with greater hypoxia tolerance do not necessarily have greater thermal tolerance. Global warming and hypoxia may pose a greater threat to population size and genetic diversity of some aquatic animals than previously believed.}, }
@article {pmid39522784, year = {2024}, author = {Feng, Z and Zhang, L and Tang, N and Li, X and Xing, W}, title = {Ensemble modeling of aquatic plant invasions and economic cost analysis in China under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {177444}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177444}, pmid = {39522784}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Pistia stratiotes, Eichhornia crassipes, Alternanthera philoxeroides, and Cabomba caroliniana are officially recognized as invasive aquatic plants in China. Accurately predicting their invasion dynamics under climate change is crucial for the future safety of aquatic ecosystems. Compared to single prediction models, ensemble models that integrate multiple algorithms provide more accurate forecasts. However, there has been a notable lack of research utilizing ensemble models to collectively predict the invasive regions of these four species in China. To address this gap, we collected and analyzed comprehensive data on species distribution, climate, altitude, population density, and the normalized difference vegetation index to accurately predict the future invasive regions and potential warnings for aquatic systems concerning these species. Our results indicate that suitable areas for invasive aquatic plants in China are primarily located in the southeastern region. Significant differences exist in the suitable habitats for each species: P. stratiotes and E. crassipes have broad distribution areas, covering most water systems in southeastern China, while C. caroliniana is concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the estuaries of the Yangtze and Pearl Rivers. A. philoxeroides has an extensive invasion area, with the North China Plain projected to become a suitable invasion region in the future. The main factors influencing future invasions are human activities and climate change. In addition, under climate change, the suitable habitats for these invasive aquatic plants are expected to expand toward higher latitudes. We also estimated the economic costs associated with invasive aquatic plants in China using the Invacost database, revealing cumulative costs of US$5525.17 million, where damage costs (89.70 %) significantly exceed management costs (10.30 %). Our innovative approach, employing various ensemble algorithms and water system invasion forecasts, aims to effectively mitigate the future invasions and economic impacts of these species.}, }
@article {pmid39522195, year = {2024}, author = {Pérez-Cutillas, P and Salhi, A}, title = {Long-term hydroclimatic projections and climate change scenarios at regional scale in Morocco.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {371}, number = {}, pages = {123254}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123254}, pmid = {39522195}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Morocco urgently needs an updated understanding of its water resources, considering the current knowledge's insufficient and uncertain state. Incorporating the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) is crucial for a more accurate and informed assessment. This study aims to bridge this gap by examining the hydrological dynamics of major basins, offering insights vital for strategic water resource management. To unravel Morocco's hydrological future, we employed an integrative methodology encompassing advanced spatial analyses, watershed hydrological modeling through the 'Water Yield' module of InVEST, and climate change scenario projections from CMIP6. Leveraging reputable databases for land cover, soil, and climate data, we ensured a robust foundation for the projections applied. This comprehensive approach facilitated a nuanced examination of water availability, considering the intricate interplay of various factors. The findings unveil a concerning projection, anticipating water yield declines between 23% and 51% by 2080 and 43%-61% by 2100 across the 12 basins. The northwest and north areas, currently endowed with better water availability, face the most substantial reductions. Economic repercussions loom, with potential losses ranging from -0.8 to -8.5 billion USD by 2100, urging strategic interventions to avert potential GDP declines of 2.8%-17.1%. The study highlights the scenario-dependent sensitivity of water supply to varying levels of climate change. In the context of the North African region, Morocco's hydroclimatic challenges assume heightened significance. As a pivotal player in the region, Morocco's water resource management impacts its socio-economic landscape as well as resonates regionally. The outcome of proactive measures and strategic planning can potentially set a precedent for neighboring countries grappling with similar hydrological uncertainties, fostering regional resilience in the face of escalating water stress. The study's insights, therefore, carry broader implications, positioning Morocco as a key influencer in shaping sustainable water management practices across North Africa.}, }
@article {pmid39521502, year = {2024}, author = {Prasad, A}, title = {Marina Romanello: tracking climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {404}, number = {10465}, pages = {1801}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02425-5}, pmid = {39521502}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid39520017, year = {2024}, author = {Li, M and Zheng, CF and Gao, XQ and Li, CH and Li, YX and Xia, XH and Yang, J and Zheng, YQ and Huang, P}, title = {Distinct Ecological Habits and Habitat Responses to Future Climate Change in Two Subspecies of Magnolia sieboldii K. Koch, a Tree Endemic to East Asia.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {21}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants13213097}, pmid = {39520017}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2022YFD2200100//National Key Research and Development Program/ ; 2005DKA21003//National Platform for Forestry and Grassland Genetic Resources/ ; }, abstract = {Magnolia sieboldii, an important ornamental tree native to East Asia, comprises two subspecies in distinct regions, with wild populations facing suboptimal survival. This study aimed to understand the potential habitat distribution of these subspecies under future climate-change conditions to support climate-adaptive conservation. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used with occurrence and environmental data to simulate the current and future suitable habitats under various climate scenarios. Precipitation in the warmest quarter played a crucial role in shaping the potential habitats of both subspecies; however, they exhibited different sensitivities to temperature-related variables and altitude. Magnolia sieboldii subsp. sieboldii is more sensitive to temperature seasonality and annual mean temperature, whereas Magnolia sieboldii subsp. japonica is more affected by altitude, mean temperature in the driest quarter, and isothermality. Currently, the subsp. sieboldii is predicted to have larger, more contiguous suitable habitats across northeastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, whereas the subsp. japonica occupies smaller, more disjunct habitats scattered in central and western Japan and the southern Chinese mountains. These two subspecies will respond differently to future climate change. Potentially suitable habitats for subsp. sieboldii are expected to expand significantly northward over time, especially under the SSP585 scenario compared with the SSP126 scenario. In contrast, moderately and highly suitable habitats for the subsp. japonica are projected to contract southward significantly. Therefore, we recommend prioritizing the conservation of the subsp. japonica over that of the subsp. sieboldii. Strategies include in situ and ex situ protection, introduction and cultivation, regional hybridization, and international cooperation. Our study offers valuable insights for the development of targeted conservation strategies for both subspecies of M. sieboldii to counteract the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39516678, year = {2024}, author = {Oo, NM and Weadick, CS and Murphy, L and O'Reilly, S}, title = {Climate change advocacy and cancer clinical trial organisations.}, journal = {BJC reports}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {49}, pmid = {39516678}, issn = {2731-9377}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a threat to human health; equally health care is a threat to climate change as it accounts for 4% of greenhouse gas emissions and 30% of the world's electronically stored data. 350,000 international trials are registered on ClinicalTrials.gov with ~27·5 million tonnes of emissions (equivalent to half of annual Danish emissions).<br><br>METHODS: In September 2023 climate awareness among cancer clinical trial organisations was assessed via a web-based scoping exercise.<br><br>RESULTS: Seventy-five organisations were identified of whom 46 had search tools on their websites. Eight out of 46 clinical trial groups had at least one parameter of commitment to climate change, and 38 organisations had none. Of 46 websites, 5 had climate change position statements or policies, 4 had a committee or task force, 1 provided patient education resources for climate change via video link, 7 included green initiative advice and 8 had publications addressing climate change. Only 5 were listed as members of Climate Change Consortiums.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Based on website assessment climate advocacy among cancer clinical trial organisations is low, and efforts to encourage climate engagement are needed.}, }
@article {pmid39516640, year = {2024}, author = {Schiller, JH}, title = {Climate change: why oncologists need to get involved.}, journal = {BJC reports}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {20}, pmid = {39516640}, issn = {2731-9377}, abstract = {A warming planet will have devasting effects on human health - including the care, diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of cancer patients. As oncology health care professionals, we have a moral and professional obligation to educate our peers, health systems, the public, and other stakeholders as to the dangers they can expect, and how they can be prevented or mitigated. There are numerous ways that we, as trusted messengers, can take action, either personally, locally, nationally, or by supporting non-profit organizations advocating for climate change and cancer. Impact of climate change on human health. Source: National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, https://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/effects/default.htm .}, }
@article {pmid39515386, year = {2024}, author = {Gustafson, EJ and Lucash, MS and Shvidenko, AZ and Sturtevant, BR and Miranda, BR and Schepaschenko, D and Matsumoto, H}, title = {Climate change and disturbance interact to alter landscape reflectivity (albedo) in boreal forests across a large latitudinal gradient in Siberia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {956}, number = {}, pages = {177043}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177043}, pmid = {39515386}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Boreal forests form the largest terrestrial biome globally. Climate change is expected to induce large changes in vegetation of high latitude ecosystems, but there is considerable uncertainty about where, when, and how those changes will occur. Such vegetation change produces major feedback to the climate system, including by modifying albedo (reflectivity). Our study used the LANDIS-II forest landscape model to project forest dynamics on four representative landscapes (1 M ha) for 280 years into the future under a range of climate scenarios across a broad latitudinal gradient in Siberia. The model estimated the albedo of the vegetation and any snow on each landscape grid-cell through time to quantify surface albedo change in response to climate change and disturbances. We found that the shortening of the snow-covered season (winter) decreased annual average albedo dramatically, and climate change facilitated the invasion of tundra by boreal trees in the northernmost landscape (reducing albedo in all seasons). However, in other landscapes, albedo increased in summer due to disturbances (fire, wind, insects, harvest), eliminating or reducing leaf area in the short-term, and in the mid-term by promoting more reflective forest types (deciduous, light conifers). This increased albedo was somewhat ephemeral and under climate change was overwhelmed by the shortening of the snow-covered season that greatly reduced albedo. We conclude that the primary driver of the overall reflectivity of boreal ecosystems is not vegetation, but rather, the length of the snow-covered season. Because climate change is likely to dramatically shorten the snow season, the concurrent reduction of albedo has the potential to act as a powerful positive feedback for climate change. Managing natural and anthropogenic disturbances may be the only tool with potential to mitigate the reduction of albedo by climate change in boreal ecosystems because management to encourage more reflective forest types has relatively small effect.}, }
@article {pmid39514920, year = {2024}, author = {Nankade, VA and Fand, BB and Lavhe, NV and Thube, SH and Gawande, SP and Nagrale, DT and Borkar, SL and Pillai, TS and Nikoshe, A and Prasad, YG}, title = {A GIS-coupled thermal response model for predicting the population growth potential of the red cotton bug, Dysdercus koenigii (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Pyrrhocoridae) in India under climate change conditions.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {125}, number = {}, pages = {104010}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2024.104010}, pmid = {39514920}, issn = {0306-4565}, abstract = {Recently, the red cotton bug has become a significant menace to cotton in India. With the potential for increased habitat suitability due to predicted temperature rise of 2.5 °C under future climate change in India, this pest could become even more severe in certain regions. Addressing the knowledge gap on the temperature-driven population growth of this pest is crucial for developing a climate-resilient pest management strategy. In this study, life history data gathered at various constant temperatures (15 °C-35 °C) were used to estimate temperature thresholds and thermal requirements for the red cotton bug development. Stochastic estimation of life table parameters and validation with real-time weather data were performed. The phenology model, integrated into a geographic information system, projected the future pest status based on SSP126 temperature change scenarios for the year 2050. The temperatures between 8.35 and 10.83 °C were estimated as lower developmental thresholds for various immature life stages. The optimum and upper threshold temperatures estimated for different life stages ranged between 22.14 - 28.32 °C and 35.80-39.08 °C, respectively. Thermal requirements of 447.97° days for life cycle completion were estimated. The optimum immature survival rates (>70%) were observed at temperatures between 25 and 30 °C. The temperature-dependent decrease in generation times from 90.45 days (15 °C) to 25.44 days (35 °C) was observed, whereas maximum fecundity was recorded at 32 °C. Simulation at fluctuating temperatures across different cotton growing locations provided reasonably similar results on potential population increase (finite rate of increase: 0.99-1.04 females/female/day and a generation time of 44.25-83.97 days). Risk mapping highlighted moderate to high suitability (ERI >0.4, GI > 6, and AI >4) of various cotton growing areas under current climate, and projected shifts in suitability under future climate change. The study has generated information valuable for implementing effective and timely pest management strategies for red cotton bug. Integrating the field observations with model outputs can enhance a practical understanding of red cotton bug dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid39514745, year = {2024}, author = {Dhai, A}, title = {Climate change, extreme heat and heat waves.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {114}, number = {11}, pages = {e2804}, pmid = {39514745}, issn = {2078-5135}, }
@article {pmid39510115, year = {2024}, author = {Cai, W and Zhang, C and Zhang, S and Bai, Y and Callaghan, M and Chang, N and Chen, B and Chen, H and Cheng, L and Dai, H and Fan, W and Guan, D and Hu, Y and Hu, Y and Hua, J and Huang, C and Huang, H and Huang, J and Huang, X and Ji, JS and Jiang, Q and Jiang, X and Kiesewetter, G and Li, T and Li, B and Liang, L and Lin, B and Lin, H and Liu, H and Liu, Q and Liu, Z and Liu, Z and Liu, Y and Lou, S and Lu, B and Lu, C and Luo, Z and Mi, Z and Miao, Y and Ren, C and Romanello, M and Shen, J and Su, J and Su, R and Sun, Y and Sun, X and Walawender, M and Wang, C and Wang, Q and Wang, Q and Warnecke, L and Wei, W and Wei, X and Wen, S and Xie, Y and Xiong, H and Xu, B and Yang, X and Yang, Y and Yao, F and Yu, L and Yu, W and Yuan, J and Zeng, Y and Zhang, J and Zhang, R and Zhang, S and Zhang, S and Zhao, M and Zhao, Q and Zhao, Q and Zheng, D and Zhou, H and Zhou, J and Zhou, Z and Luo, Y and Gong, P}, title = {The 2024 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: launching a new low-carbon, healthy journey.}, journal = {The Lancet. Public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00241-X}, pmid = {39510115}, issn = {2468-2667}, }
@article {pmid39505945, year = {2024}, author = {Wan, GZ and Li, QQ and Jin, L and Chen, J}, title = {Integrated approach to predicting habitat suitability and evaluating quality variations of Notopterygium franchetii under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {26927}, pmid = {39505945}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2018FY100701//Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China/ ; 2021GSMPAKL12//National Medical Products Administration/ ; 2021GSMPA008//Gansu Medical Products Administration/ ; 2022030014//National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Apiaceae/growth &amp; development ; Plants, Medicinal/chemistry/growth &amp; development ; Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on medicinal plants has significantly altered their suitable environments, thereby affecting the quality of herbal medicines. Notopterygium franchetii (N. franchetii), a medicinal plant intricately linked to its natural habitat, exhibits substantial quality variations influenced by the ecological conditions of its native region. In this study, comprehensive field surveys were conducted to gather occurrence records and samples of N. franchetii. The Maxent model and ArcGIS software were employed to predict the suitable habitats of N. franchetii during different time periods. A high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method was developed to establish the chemical fingerprints of 21 sample batches. Fourteen common peaks were subjected to cluster analysis, principal component analysis, and orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis. The findings revealed quality variations correlated with their geographic origins, identifying peaks 10, 1, 14, 3, and 4 as crucial for quality differentiation. The study indicates that precipitation, temperature, and altitude significantly influence the distribution of N. franchetii. Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitat area for N. franchetii is estimated to be approximately 94,637.33 km[2]. However, projections under three future climate scenarios suggest a declining trend in suitable habitat areas. A quality zoning map of N. franchetii was developed, integrating a correlation model between chemical composition and environmental variables with the spatial analysis and visualization capabilities of ArcGIS. The high-quality regions for N. franchetii are predominantly located in the Gannan, Linxia, Dingxi, Longnan, and Wuwei districts. These research outcomes offer a valuable reference for identifying suitable cultivation areas and assessing the quality of N. franchetii in Gansu Province.}, }
@article {pmid39505398, year = {2024}, author = {Thiagarajan, K}, title = {How climate change made 2024 the deadliest year of dengue.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {387}, number = {}, pages = {q2391}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q2391}, pmid = {39505398}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid39504385, year = {2024}, author = {Petrino, R and Garcia-Castrillo, L and Uccheddu, G and Meucci, L and Codecà, R}, title = {Awareness and preparedness of health systems and emergency medicine systems to the climate change challenges and threats: an international survey.}, journal = {European journal of emergency medicine : official journal of the European Society for Emergency Medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/MEJ.0000000000001196}, pmid = {39504385}, issn = {1473-5695}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Climate change is widely recognised as a critical public health challenge.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the awareness, preparedness and mitigation plans for climate change threats.<br><br>A cross-sectional observational study targeting emergency medical societies in different countries was conducted between 15 February and 15 March 2024.<br><br>INTERVENTION OR EXPOSURE: The survey featured 16 closed questions on climate change awareness, preparedness and risks. Focus groups of 4-6 members were organised by country. Results were correlated to income levels, United Nations (UN) regional classification and the World Risk Index.<br><br>OUTCOME MEASURE AND ANALYSIS: The questions were ranked using a Likert-like scale from 0 to 9 (9 being the highest). Descriptive statistics used central tendency estimators, and inferential analysis used chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis tests, with the significance level set at P&#x2005;<&#x2005;0.05.<br><br>RESULTS: Forty-two focus groups responded, representing 36 countries: 21 (50%) high-income, seven (16.7%) low-income, five (11.9%) lower middle-income and nine (21.4%) upper middle-income countries, representing 31 of the 22 UN regions. According to the World Risk Index, the respondent countries belonged to the different categories as follows: very low risk, 6 (14%); low risk, 8 (19%); medium risk, 5 (12%); high risk, 8 (19%) and very high risk, 14 (34%). The estimated impact of climate change on national health systems had a mean score of 6.75 (SD&#x2005;=&#x2005;2.16), while on Emergency Medical Systems was 6.96 (SD&#x2005;=&#x2005;2.05). Overall, assessment and preparedness measures were reported by just 21.4 and 37.6% of respondents, respectively. Analysis by income did not show significant differences, with the exception of food supply. The main differences in the analysis by region were the risks of extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and wildfires, whereas the World Risk Index was food and chain of supplies. Education and integration of health services were indicated by all as the main mitigation actions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Geographical position and country risk index influence risk perception among focus groups more than income economy, with vector-borne diseases, extreme weather events and food shortages being the threats with the most variability. The most important actions identified to mitigate Climate Change effects are educational and strategic plans.}, }
@article {pmid39503895, year = {2024}, author = {Beans, C}, title = {Can microbiome adaptations protect crops from pests and climate change?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {46}, pages = {e2421369121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2421369121}, pmid = {39503895}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid39503716, year = {2024}, author = {Eidmann, A and Geiger, F and Heinz, T and Jakuscheit, A and Docheva, D and Horas, K and Stratos, I and Rudert, M}, title = {Our Impact on Global Warming: A Carbon Footprint Analysis of Orthopaedic Operations.}, journal = {The Journal of bone and joint surgery. American volume}, volume = {106}, number = {21}, pages = {1971-1977}, doi = {10.2106/JBJS.24.00212}, pmid = {39503716}, issn = {1535-1386}, mesh = {*Carbon Footprint/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Global Warming ; *Orthopedic Procedures/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The health-care sector and particularly the surgical sector are major contributors to the exacerbation of the global climate crisis. Little is known about the carbon emissions caused by surgical procedures. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the carbon footprint associated with common orthopaedic surgical procedures.<br><br>METHODS: Eight surgical procedures (total hip arthroplasty, total knee arthroplasty, knee arthroscopy, anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction, shoulder arthroscopy, elective foot surgery, revision hip arthroplasty, and revision knee arthroplasty) were selected for analysis. The inventory process was performed according to the Greenhouse Gas Protocol for all activity occurring in the operating room.<br><br>RESULTS: The carbon footprint (in CO2 equivalents, CO2e) ranged between 53.5 kg for knee arthroscopy and 125.9 kg for revision knee arthroplasty. Energy consumption accounted for 57.5% of all emissions, followed by other indirect emissions (38.8%) and direct emissions (3.7%). The largest single contributors were the supply chain (34.6%) and energy consumption for ventilation, heating, and air conditioning (32.7%).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Orthopaedic surgical procedures produce considerable amounts of CO2. Reduction in and greening of energy consumption, as well as the decarbonization of the supply chain, would have the greatest impact in reducing the carbon footprint of orthopaedic surgical procedures.<br><br>CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Orthopaedic surgical procedures contribute to the climate crisis by emitting relevant amounts of CO2. It should therefore be imperative for all orthopaedic surgeons to endeavor to find solutions to mitigate the environmental impact of their practice.}, }
@article {pmid39502915, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, W and Wang, X and Shen, S and Zhao, Y and Hao, S and Jiang, J and Zhang, D}, title = {Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1440610}, pmid = {39502915}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Magnolia grandiflora L. (southern magnolia) is native to the southeastern coastal areas of the United States, from North Carolina to eastern Texas (USDA Cold Hardiness Zone 8). It is currently widely cultivated in Zones 5-10 in the U.S. and in southern Yangtze River regions in China. Limited studies have examined the effects of climate change and human activities on the geographical distribution and adaptability of M. grandiflora during its introduction to China.<br><br>METHODS: We selected 127 occurrence points in the U.S. and 87 occurrence points in China, along with 43 environmental variables, to predict suitable habitat areas for M. grandiflora using present climate data (1970-2000) and projected future climate data (2050-2070) based on a complete niche ensemble model (EM) using the Biomod2 package. We also predicted the niche change of M. grandiflora in both countries using the 'ecospat' package in R.<br><br>RESULTS: The ensemble models demonstrated high reliability, with an AUC of 0.993 and TSS of 0.932. Solar radiation in July, human impact index, and precipitation of the wettest month were identified as the most critical variables influencing M. grandiflora distribution. The species shows a similar trend of distribution expansion under climate change scenarios in both countries, with predicted expansions towards the northwest and northeast, and contractions in southern regions.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Our study emphasizes a practical framework for predicting suitable habitats and migration of Magnoliaceae species under climate change scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights. for species conservation, introduction, management strategies, and sustainable utilization of M. grandiflora.}, }
@article {pmid39502661, year = {2024}, author = {Harris, MJ and Trok, JT and Martel, KS and Borbor Cordova, MJ and Diffenbaugh, NS and Munayco, CV and Lescano, AG and Mordecai, EA}, title = {Extreme precipitation, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, drove Peru's record-breaking 2023 dengue outbreak.}, journal = {medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39502661}, support = {D43 TW007393/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI102918/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI168097/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R35 GM133439/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic forcing is increasing the likelihood and severity of certain extreme weather events, which may catalyze outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Extreme precipitation events can promote the spread of mosquito-borne illnesses by creating vector habitat, destroying infrastructure, and impeding vector control. Here, we focus on Cyclone Yaku, which caused heavy rainfall in northwestern Peru from March 7th - 20th, 2023 and was followed by the worst dengue outbreak in Peru's history. We apply generalized synthetic control methods to account for baseline climate variation and unobserved confounders when estimating the causal effect of Cyclone Yaku on dengue cases across the 56 districts with the greatest precipitation anomalies. We estimate that 67 (95% CI: 30 - 87) % of cases in cyclone-affected districts were attributable to Cyclone Yaku. The cyclone significantly increased cases for over six months, causing 38,209 (95% CI: 17,454 - 49,928) out of 57,246 cases. The largest increases in dengue incidence due to Cyclone Yaku occurred in districts with a large share of low-quality roofs and walls in residences, greater flood risk, and warmer temperatures above 24°C. Analyzing an ensemble of climate model simulations, we found that extremely intense March precipitation in northwestern Peru is 42% more likely in the current era compared to a preindustrial baseline due to climate forcing. In sum, extreme precipitation like that associated with Cyclone Yaku has become more likely with climate change, and Cyclone Yaku caused the majority of dengue cases across the cyclone-affected districts.}, }
@article {pmid39501834, year = {2024}, author = {Zhou, Q and Chen, J and Ma, J and Jiao, W and Liang, Z and Du, R and Pan, Y and Liu, L and Qian, Q and Sun, S and Ji, Y and Zhang, Z}, title = {Relationship between global warming and autism spectrum disorder from 1990 to 2019.}, journal = {BJPsych open}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e198}, doi = {10.1192/bjo.2024.790}, pmid = {39501834}, issn = {2056-4724}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Despite mounting evidence linking neurological diseases with climate change, the link between autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and global warming has yet to be explored.<br><br>AIMS: To examine the relationship between the incidence of ASD and global warming from 1990 to 2019 and estimate the trajectory of ASD incidence from 2020 to 2100 globally.<br><br>METHOD: We extracted meteorological data from TerraClimate between 1990 and 2019. To estimate the association between global ASD incidence and temperature variation, we adopted a two-stage analysis strategy using a generalised additive regression model. Additionally, we projected future ASD incidence under four representative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: 126, 245, 370 and 585) by bootstrapping.<br><br>RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the global mean incidence of ASD in children under 5 years old was 96.9 per 100 000. The incidence was higher in males (147.5) than in females (46.3). A 1.0 &#xb0;C increase in the temperature variation was associated with a 3.0% increased risk of ASD incidence. The association was stronger in boys and children living in a low/low-middle sociodemographic index region, as well as in low-latitude areas. According to the SSP585 scenario, by 2100, the children living in regions between 10 and 20&#xb0; latitude, particularly in Africa, will experience a 68.6% increase in ASD incidence if the association remains. However, the SSP126 scenario is expected to mitigate this increase, with a less than 10% increase in incidence across all latitudes.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the association between climate change and ASD incidence worldwide. Prospective studies are warranted to confirm the association.}, }
@article {pmid39501807, year = {2024}, author = {Garrido Zornoza, M and Caminade, C and Tompkins, AM}, title = {The effect of climate change and temperature extremes on Aedes albopictus populations: a regional case study for Italy.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society, Interface}, volume = {21}, number = {220}, pages = {20240319}, pmid = {39501807}, issn = {1742-5662}, support = {//Novo Nordisk Foundation Interdisciplinary Synergy Program/ ; //ICTP-IAEA/ ; }, mesh = {*Aedes/physiology ; Animals ; Italy ; *Climate Change ; *Mosquito Vectors/physiology ; Models, Biological ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has spread widely throughout Italy since its introduction, with significant public health implications. We examine how decadal temperature trends and sub-monthly heatwave events affect its climate-driven geographical distribution and temporal dynamics using a new regional-scale dynamical Aedes model. The model is calibrated using [Formula: see text] years of ovitrap data for Emilia-Romagna and reproduces the vector seasonality and, to a lesser extent, its inter-annual variability. Simulated vector density hotspots overlap with densely populated areas in Rome, Milan, Naples, Foggia, Catania, Palermo, Lecce, Cagliari, Genoa, Turin and large urban centres in Emilia-Romagna. Lower risk is simulated over the Central Apennine mountains and the Alps. At decadal time scale, we simulate a lengthening of the active mosquito season by 0.5-3 weeks per decade, with the vector becoming homodynamic in southern Italy. Depending on the climatic setting, heatwaves can increase or reduce vector populations and, in some locations, can temporarily decrease mosquito populations. Such decreases can be followed by a population rebound and overshoot. Given the model's skill in reproducing key spatio-temporal Ae. albopictus features, there is potential to develop an early warning system to inform control efforts at a national scale.}, }
@article {pmid39500894, year = {2024}, author = {Wen, Y and Guo, J and Wang, F and Hao, Z and Fei, Y and Yang, A and Fan, Y and Chan, FKS}, title = {Author Correction: A high-resolution dataset for future compound hot-dry events under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1197}, doi = {10.1038/s41597-024-04054-w}, pmid = {39500894}, issn = {2052-4463}, }
@article {pmid39500447, year = {2024}, author = {Fagunwa, OE and Ashiru-Oredope, D and Gilmore, BF and Doherty, S and Oyama, LB and Huws, SA}, title = {Climate change as a challenge for pharmaceutical storage and tackling antimicrobial resistance.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {956}, number = {}, pages = {177367}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177367}, pmid = {39500447}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The rise of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains a pressing global health challenge. Infections that were once easily treatable with first-line antimicrobials are becoming increasingly difficult to manage. This shift directly threatens the wellness of humans, animals, plants, and the environment. While the AMR crisis can be attributed to a myriad of factors, including lack of infection prevention and control measures, over-prescription of antimicrobials, patient non-compliance, and the misuse of antimicrobials, one aspect that has garnered less attention is the role of storage conditions of these medicines. The way medications, particularly antimicrobials, are transported and stored until the point of use can influence their efficacy and, subsequently, may impact the development of resistant microbial strains. This review delves deeper into the often-overlooked domain of climate change (CC) and antimicrobial storage practices and the potential effects. Inappropriate storage conditions, such as exposure to extreme temperatures, humidity or light, can degrade the potency of antimicrobials. When these compromised medicines are administered to patients or animals alike, they may not effectively eradicate the targeted pathogens, leading to partial survival of the pathogens. These surviving pathogens, having been exposed to sub-lethal doses, are more likely to evolve and develop resistance mechanisms. The review discusses the mechanism underlying this and underscores the implications of antimicrobial storage practices in relation to two of the most pressing global health challenges: AMR and CC. The review also presents specific case studies and highlights the importance of monitoring storage practices and supply chain surveillance. Furthermore, the importance of deploying genomic tools to understand the potential impact of storage conditions on the development of AMR is discussed, and antimicrobial storage highlighted as a crucial part of comprehensive strategies in the fight against AMR.}, }
@article {pmid39499291, year = {2024}, author = {de Oliveira Aparecido, LE and Torsoni, GB and Lorençone, PA and Lorençone, JA and de Souza Rolim, G}, title = {Barley vulnerability to climate change: perspectives for cultivation in South America.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39499291}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {Barley (Hordeum vulgare) is a globally significant cereal crop, widely used in both food production and brewing. However, it is particularly vulnerable to climate change, especially extreme temperature fluctuations, which can severely reduce yields. To address this challenge, a detailed climate zoning study was conducted to assess the suitability of barley production areas across South America, considering both current conditions and future climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study utilized historical climate data along with projections from the CMIP6 IPSL-CM6A-LR model for the period 2021-2100. Several indices, such as evapotranspiration, were calculated, and factors like soil composition and topography were integrated into the classification of regions based on their agricultural potential. Critical variables in this assessment included temperature, precipitation, and water or thermal excess. The results showed that 6.59% of South America's territory is currently suitable for barley cultivation without additional irrigation, with these regions concentrated primarily in temperate southern areas. In contrast, 18.62% of the region is already unsuitable due to excessive heat. Projections under future climate scenarios indicate a shrinking of suitable areas, alongside an expansion of unsuitable regions. In the worst-case scenario, only 1.48% of the territory would remain viable for barley farming. These findings emphasize the crop's vulnerability to climate change, underscoring the urgency of developing agricultural adaptation strategies. The predicted contraction in suitable barley cultivation areas demonstrates the profound impact of climate change on agriculture and highlights the need for proactive measures to ensure sustainable barley production in South America.}, }
@article {pmid39498875, year = {2024}, author = {Adde, A and Külling, N and Rey, PL and Fopp, F and Brun, P and Broennimann, O and Lehmann, A and Petitpierre, B and Zimmermann, NE and Pellissier, L and Altermatt, F and Guisan, A}, title = {Projecting Untruncated Climate Change Effects on Species' Climate Suitability: Insights From an Alpine Country.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {e17557}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17557}, pmid = {39498875}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Board of the Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology/ ; //Swiss Federal Office for the Environment/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; Switzerland ; Animals ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Climate projections for continental Europe indicate drier summers, increased annual precipitation, and less snowy winters, which are expected to cause shifts in species' distributions. Yet, most regions/countries currently lack comprehensive climate-driven biodiversity projections across taxonomic groups, challenging effective conservation efforts. To address this gap, our study evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the biodiversity of an alpine country of Europe, Switzerland. We used a state-of-the art species distribution modeling approach and species occurrence data that covered the climatic conditions encountered across the full species' ranges to help limiting niche truncation. We quantified the relationship between baseline climate and the spatial distribution of 7291 species from 12 main taxonomic groups and projected future climate suitability for three 30-year periods and two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). Our results indicated important effects of projected climate changes on species' climate suitability, with responses varying by the taxonomic and conservation status group. The percentage of species facing major changes in climate suitability was higher under RCP8.5 (68%) compared to RCP4.5 (66%). By the end of the century, decreases in climate suitability were projected for 3000 species under RCP8.5 and 1758 species under RCP4.5. The most affected groups under RCP8.5 were molluscs, algae, and amphibians, while it was molluscs, birds, and vascular plants under RCP4.5. Spatially, by 2070-2099, we projected an overall decrease in climate suitability for 39% of the cells in the study area under RCP8.5 and 10% under RCP4.5, while projecting an increase for 50% of the cells under RCP8.5 and 73% under RCP4.5. The most consistent geographical shifts were upward, southward, and eastward. We found that the coverage of high climate suitability cells by protected areas was expected to increase. Our models and maps provide guidance for spatial conservation planning by pointing out future climate-suitable areas for biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid39498600, year = {2024}, author = {Castellani, P and Ferronato, N and Barbieri, J and Menya, E and Carnevale Miino, M and Torretta, V}, title = {Solid waste management in Ugandan developing cities: Material flow analysis and sustainable practices for reducing the global warming potential.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {734242X241291940}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X241291940}, pmid = {39498600}, issn = {1096-3669}, abstract = {The introduction of appropriate solid waste management (SWM) strategies can foster the mitigation of waste open dumping and burning in low-income developing cities. In this work, the SWM system in Gulu (Uganda) has been studied, and a material flow analysis, also of informal flows of waste, has been carried out. Moreover, the effectiveness of the SWM system of St. Mary's Lacor Hospital in Gulu was evaluated. Waste has been characterized and a material flow analysis allowed to highlight the difference with the current situation in the remaining part of Gulu. The sustainable practices already implemented in the hospital compound were studied to be replicated in Gulu to mitigate SWM impact in terms of global warming potential. Inadequate financial resources pose a hurdle for Gulu municipality in managing municipal solid waste (MSW) effectively. The SWM system of the hospital demonstrated both financial and managerial competence, paving the way to promote waste recycling actions acting as a hub for fostering sustainable and health-conscious valourization technologies, while discouraging waste open burning and dumping. This study estimated that the total CO2-eq emissions from open dumping and open burning avoided in 2030-2050, if Gulu would appropriately dispose of MSW by 2030, are equal to about 17,000 metric tonnes per year (t year[-1]). This work suggests appropriate strategies to mitigate waste open burning in low-middle income countries. The results can be helpful for waste management planners and practitioners providing important information for the use of appropriate technologies in low-middle income developing cities.}, }
@article {pmid39498402, year = {2024}, author = {Ji, JS}, title = {China's health national adaptation plan for climate change: action framework 2024-2030.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {52}, number = {}, pages = {101227}, pmid = {39498402}, issn = {2666-6065}, }
@article {pmid39498200, year = {2024}, author = {Zhu, DP and Yang, L and Li, YH and Huang, P and Yao, B and Kong, Z and Xiang, Y}, title = {Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Pyrethrum tatsienense in China Using an Optimized Maxent Model Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {e70503}, pmid = {39498200}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change can significantly impact the ecological suitability and diversity of species. Pyrethrum tatsienense, a critically endangered species in China, requires a thorough understanding of its habitat distribution and the environmental factors that affect it in the context of climate change. The Maxent algorithm was used to examine the key factors influencing the distribution of P. tatsienense in China, using data from 127 species occurrences and environmental variables from the Last Interglacial (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid-Holocene (MH), current, and future scenarios. The Maxent model was optimized utilizing the R package ENMeval, providing the most accurate predictions for suitable habitats across various scenarios. Results show that suitable regions for P. tatsienense encompass approximately 15.02% (14.42 × 10[5] km[2]) of China, predominantly on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The mean UV-B of the highest month (UVB3: 39.7%), elevation (elev: 28.7%), and the warmest season of precipitation (Bio18: 17.4%) are the major limiting factors for suitable habitat. The optimal species distribution ranges are identified as > 7500 J m[-2] day[-1] for UVB3, 2700-5600 m for elev, and 150-480 mm for Bio18. Predictions for the historical climate indicate the presence of refugia at the junction of Sichuan, Tibet, and Qinghai. The MH predictions show an increase in climatic suitability for P. tatsienense compared to the LIG and LGM, with an expansion of suitable areas westward. Future climate change scenarios indicate that the potential suitable habitat for P. tatsienense is expected to increase with increasing radiative forcing, with higher latitude regions becoming new marginally suitable habitats. However, predicted environmental changes in western Tibet may drive the loss of highly suitable habitats in the future. These findings enhance our understanding of how environmental factors impact the habitat suitability of P. tatsienense and provide valuable insights for developing effective management and conservation strategies for this important species.}, }
@article {pmid39498197, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, Y and Chen, L}, title = {Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Corylus Species Distribution in China: Integrating Climatic, Topographic, and Anthropogenic Factors.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {e70528}, pmid = {39498197}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {This study investigates the impact of climate change on the distribution of Corylus species in China using the MaxEnt model. Key environmental variables, such as Bio6 (mean temperature of the coldest month) and human footprint, emerged as significant determinants of habitat suitability. The study reveals substantial shifts in suitable habitats due to global warming and increased precipitation, with notable expansion towards higher latitudes. Species like Corylus heterophylla Fisch. ex Bess. and Corylus mandshurica Maxim. demonstrate resilience in extreme conditions, highlighting the importance of specific ecological traits for conservation. Future projections under various SSP scenarios predict continued habitat expansion, emphasizing the need for targeted conservation strategies to address the critical role of human activities. This research highlights the complex interplay between climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors in shaping Corylus habitats, advocating for integrated adaptive management approaches to ensure their sustainability amid ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39497286, year = {2024}, author = {Corbin, JPM and Best, RJ and Garthwaite, IJ and Cooper, HF and Doughty, CE and Gehring, CA and Hultine, KR and Allan, GJ and Whitham, TG}, title = {Hyperspectral Leaf Reflectance Detects Interactive Genetic and Environmental Effects on Tree Phenotypes, Enabling Large-Scale Monitoring and Restoration Planning Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/pce.15263}, pmid = {39497286}, issn = {1365-3040}, support = {DEB-1914433//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-1340852//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-1340856//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-2017877//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-2017895//National Science Foundation/ ; DBI-1126840//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Plants respond to rapid environmental change in ways that depend on both their genetic identity and their phenotypic plasticity, impacting their survival as well as associated ecosystems. However, genetic and environmental effects on phenotype are difficult to quantify across large spatial scales and through time. Leaf hyperspectral reflectance offers a potentially robust approach to map these effects from local to landscape levels. Using a handheld field spectrometer, we analyzed leaf-level hyperspectral reflectance of the foundation tree species Populus fremontii in wild populations and in three 6-year-old experimental common gardens spanning a steep climatic gradient. First, we show that genetic variation among populations and among clonal genotypes is detectable with leaf spectra, using both multivariate and univariate approaches. Spectra predicted population identity with 100% accuracy among trees in the wild, 87%-98% accuracy within a common garden, and 86% accuracy across different environments. Multiple spectral indices of plant health had significant heritability, with genotype accounting for 10%-23% of spectral variation within populations and 14%-48% of the variation across all populations. Second, we found gene by environment interactions leading to population-specific shifts in the spectral phenotype across common garden environments. Spectral indices indicate that genetically divergent populations made unique adjustments to their chlorophyll and water content in response to the same environmental stresses, so that detecting genetic identity is critical to predicting tree response to change. Third, spectral indicators of greenness and photosynthetic efficiency decreased when populations were transferred to growing environments with higher mean annual maximum temperatures relative to home conditions. This result suggests altered physiological strategies further from the conditions to which plants are locally adapted. Transfers to cooler environments had fewer negative effects, demonstrating that plant spectra show directionality in plant performance adjustments. Thus, leaf reflectance data can detect both local adaptation and plastic shifts in plant physiology, informing strategic restoration and conservation decisions by enabling high resolution tracking of genetic and phenotypic changes in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39493443, year = {2024}, author = {Thompson, EJ and Alexander, SE and Moneghetti, K and Howden, EJ}, title = {The interplay of climate change and physical activity: Implications for cardiovascular health.}, journal = {American heart journal plus : cardiology research and practice}, volume = {47}, number = {}, pages = {100474}, pmid = {39493443}, issn = {2666-6022}, abstract = {Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the top contributors to global disease burden. Meeting the physical activity guidelines can effectively control and prevent several CVD risk factors, including obesity, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. The effects of climate change are multifactorial and have direct impacts on cardiovascular health. Increasing ambient temperatures, worsening air and water quality and urbanisation and loss of greenspace will also have indirect effects of cardiovascular health by impacting the ability and opportunity to participate in physical activity. A changing climate also has implications for large scale sporting events and policies regarding risk mitigation during exercise in hot climates. This review will discuss the impact of a changing climate on cardiovascular health and physical activity and the implications for the future of organised sport.}, }
@article {pmid39493426, year = {2024}, author = {Betro', S}, title = {From eco-anxiety to eco-hope: surviving the climate change threat.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychiatry}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1429571}, pmid = {39493426}, issn = {1664-0640}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: As the average global temperature increases, the effects of climate change worsen, through effects on worsening extreme events as well as exacerbating political, economic, and social turmoil (wars, conflicts, and migrations). This poses an existential risk to the survival of humans and non-humans. These effects are visible due to the impact on people's mental health and psychophysical well-being. This article aims to explore the growing phenomenon of psychoterratic syndromes, with focus on the effect of eco-anxiety on mental health. Furthermore, the relationship between eco-anxiety and behavior response (both individual and collective) in the climate crisis era is outlined.<br><br>METHODS: A research with interdisciplinary approach was carried out for recent literature and articles relating to psychoterratic syndromes and the effects of climate change on mental health.<br><br>RESULTS: The article explores the effects of climate change on mental health, including various research on the onset of new emotions in response to psychological effects to climate change, called psychoterratic syndromes (such as eco-anxiety, climate anxiety, solastalgia, eco-grief). Among these, eco-anxiety is the most popular term used for describing how people feel about climate change. However, the paradigm that described eco-anxiety only as a pathological emotion needs to be changed.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The article emphasizes the positive effect of eco-emotions and the need to stimulate people to move from a state of anxiety, which could bring apathy and resignation, toward eco-hope. Eco-hope could be an adaptive coping mechanism in people and communities, which is key to preventing, mitigating, and protecting mental and planetary health.}, }
@article {pmid39492842, year = {2024}, author = {Ouarda, TBMJ and Masselot, P and Campagna, C and Gosselin, P and Lavigne, &#xc9; and St-Hilaire, A and Chebana, F and Valois, P}, title = {Prediction of heatwave related mortality magnitude, duration and frequency with climate variability and climate change information.}, journal = {Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal}, volume = {38}, number = {11}, pages = {4471-4483}, pmid = {39492842}, issn = {1436-3240}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Given the link between climatic factors on one hand, such as climate change and low frequency climate oscillation indices, and the occurrence and magnitude of heat waves on the other hand, and given the impact of heat waves on mortality, these climatic factors could provide some predictive skill for mortality. We propose a new model, the Mortality-Duration-Frequency (MDF) relationship, to relate the intensity of an extreme summer mortality event to its duration and frequency. The MDF model takes into account the non-stationarities observed in the mortality data through covariates by integrating information concerning climate change through the time trend and climate variability through climate oscillation indices. The proposed approach was applied to all-cause mortality data from 1983 to 2018 in the metropolitan regions of Quebec and Montreal in eastern Canada. In all cases, models introducing covariates lead to a substantial improvement in the goodness-of-fit in comparison to stationary models without covariates. Climate change signal is more important than climate variability signal in explaining maximum summer mortality. However, climate indices successfully explain a part of the interannual variability in the maximum summer mortality. Overall, the best models are obtained with the time trend and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) used as covariates. No country has yet integrated teleconnection information in their heat-health watch and warning systems or adaptation plans. MDF modeling has the potential to be useful to public health managers for the planning and management of health services. It allows predicting future MDF curves for adaptive management using the values of the covariates.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-024-02813-0.}, }
@article {pmid39492632, year = {2024}, author = {Booth, EJ and Brauer, CJ and Sandoval-Castillo, J and Harrisson, K and Rourke, ML and Attard, CRM and Gilligan, DM and Tonkin, Z and Thiem, JD and Unmack, PJ and Zampatti, B and Beheregaray, LB}, title = {Genomic Vulnerability to Climate Change of an Australian Migratory Freshwater Fish, the Golden Perch (Macquaria ambigua).}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e17570}, doi = {10.1111/mec.17570}, pmid = {39492632}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {DP150102903//Australian Research Council/ ; DP190102533//Australian Research Council/ ; FT130101068//Australian Research Council/ ; LP0667952//Australian Research Council/ ; DE190100636//Australian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Genomic vulnerability is a measure of how much evolutionary change is required for a population to maintain optimal genotype-environment associations under projected climates. Aquatic species, and in particular migratory ectotherms, are largely underrepresented in studies of genomic vulnerability. Such species might be well equipped for tracking suitable habitat and spreading diversity that could promote adaptation to future climates. We characterised range-wide genomic diversity and genomic vulnerability in the migratory and fisheries-important golden perch (Macquaria ambigua) from Australia's expansive Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). The MDB has a steep hydroclimatic gradient and is one of the world's most variable regions in terms of climate and streamflow. Golden perch are threatened by fragmentation and obstruction of waterways, alteration of flow regimes, and a progressively hotter and drying climate. We gathered a genomic dataset of 1049 individuals from 186 MDB localities. Despite high range-wide gene flow, golden perch in the warmer, northern catchments had higher predicted vulnerability than those in the cooler, southern catchments. A new cross-validation approach showed that these predictions were insensitive to the exclusion of individual catchments. The results raise concern for populations at warm range edges, which may already be close to their thermal limits. However, a population with functional variants beneficial for climate adaptation found in the most arid and hydrologically variable catchment was predicted to be less vulnerable. Native fish management plans, such as captive breeding and stocking, should consider spatial variation in genomic vulnerability to improve conservation outcomes under climate change, even for dispersive species with high connectivity.}, }
@article {pmid39492005, year = {2023}, author = {Hadley, K and Talbott, J and Reddy, S and Wheat, S}, title = {Impacts of climate change on food security and resulting perinatal health impacts.}, journal = {Seminars in perinatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {151842}, doi = {10.1016/j.semperi.2023.151842}, pmid = {39492005}, issn = {1558-075X}, abstract = {Climate change's impact on global food security is a pressing concern with profound consequences. Climate change disrupts the global food system through a number of mechanisms including extreme weather events, rising food prices, and compromised food quality. In this article, we explore the effect of climate change on food security and the resulting health impacts of poor nutrition on pregnant women and infants in the perinatal period. Inadequate nutrition during pregnancy raises the risk of vitamin deficiencies, obstetric complications, maternal mortality, and infant malnutrition. Climate change exacerbates these challenges and perpetuates intergenerational cycles of poor nutrition. Addressing these issues requires traditional approaches to combating the climate impacts on general food security as well as specific approaches to bridge the food security gender gap. Empowering women as key stakeholders is crucial for overcoming the complex barriers to food insecurity caused by climate change, as well as protecting the well-being of vulnerable populations during the perinatal period.}, }
@article {pmid39490022, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, W and Rhemtulla, JM and Luo, D and Wang, T}, title = {Common drivers shaping niche distribution and climate change responses of one hundred tree species.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {123074}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123074}, pmid = {39490022}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly contributing to climatic mismatches, in which habitat suitability changes outpace the dispersal abilities of species. Climate niche models (CNM) have been widely used to assess such impacts on tree species. However, most studies have focused on either a single or a limited number of species, or have employed a fixed set of climate variables for multiple species. These limitations are largely due to the constraints of data availability, the complexity of the modeling algorithms, and integration approaches for the projections of diverse species. Therefore, whether specific climatic drivers determine the climatic niches of multiple tree species remains unclear. In this study, CNMs were developed for 100 economically and ecologically important tree species in China and were used to project their future distribution individually and collectively. Continentality was the predominant climate variable, affecting 71 species, followed by seasonal precipitation, which also significantly influenced over 50 species. Of the 100 tree species, the climate niche extent was projected to expand for 29 ("winners"), contract for 36 ("losers"), be stable for 27, and fluctuate for the remaining eight species. Principal component analysis showed that winners and losers were differentiated by geographic variables and the top five climatic variables, however, not by species type (deciduous vs. evergreen or conifer vs. broadleaf). The regions with the highest species richness were mainly distributed in the Hengduan Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot, and were predicted to increase from 5.2% to 7.5% of the total area. Areas with low species richness were projected to increase from 33.0% to 42.4%. Significant shifts in species composition were anticipated in these biodiversity-rich areas, suggesting potential disruption owing to species reshuffling. This study highlights the urgent need for proactive forest management and conservation strategies to address the impacts of climate change on tree species and preserve ecological functions by mitigating climatic mismatches. In addition, this study establishes a framework to identify the common environmental drivers affecting niche distribution and evaluates the collective patterns of multiple tree species, thereby providing a scientific reference for enhanced forestry management and climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid39489625, year = {2024}, author = {Siegrist, M and Berthold, A}, title = {The lasting effect of the Romantic view of nature: How it influences perceptions of risk and the support of symbolic actions against climate change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.17672}, pmid = {39489625}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {Culture can have a major impact on how we perceive different hazards. In the Romantic period, nature was described and portrayed as mysterious and benevolent. A deep connection to nature was perceived as important. We proposed that this romantic view would be positively related to people's risk perceptions of man-made hazards and, more specifically, to concerns about climate change. Further, we hypothesized that the Romantic perception of nature leads to a biased perception of natural hazards and that the moral component of action is of particular importance above and beyond the mere efficacy of the action. We conducted an online survey in Germany (N = 531), a country where Romanticism had a very widespread influence. The study shows that individuals with a Romantic view of nature perceived greater risks associated with climate change than those without such a view. In addition, those with a Romantic view of nature were more likely to support measures to reduce the risks of climate change, even when it is said that such measures are not effective. Finally, the study found a significantly higher positive correlation between Romantic views of nature and risk perceptions of man-made versus natural hazards. The results suggest that ideas developed during the Romantic era continue to influence hazard perception in Germany.}, }
@article {pmid39488541, year = {2024}, author = {Minev-Benzecry, S and Daru, BH}, title = {Climate change alters the future of natural floristic regions of deep evolutionary origins.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {9474}, pmid = {39488541}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {2345994//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 2416314//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; *Phylogeny ; *Biological Evolution ; Plants/genetics ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Biogeographic regions reflect the organization of biotas over long evolutionary timescales but face alterations from recent anthropogenic climate change. Here, we model species distributions for 189,269 vascular plant species of the world under present and future climates and use this data to generate biogeographic regions based on phylogenetic dissimilarity. Our analysis reveals declines in phylogenetic beta diversity for years 2040 to 2100, leading to a future homogenization of biogeographic regions. While some biogeographic boundaries will persist, climate change will alter boundaries separating biogeographic realms. Such boundary alterations will be determined by altitude variation, heterogeneity of temperature seasonality, and past climate velocity. Our findings suggest that human activities may now surpass the geological forces that shaped floristic regions over millions of years, calling for the mitigation of climate impacts to meet international biodiversity targets.}, }
@article {pmid39488335, year = {2024}, author = {Corrêa, MP}, title = {Heatwaves, biodiversity and health in times of climate change.}, journal = {Jornal de pediatria}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jped.2024.10.002}, pmid = {39488335}, issn = {1678-4782}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This article discusses heatwaves (HWs), their definitions, and increasing frequencies associated with climate change, as well as their effects on human health, especially on children and vulnerable groups. It emphasizes the need for interdisciplinary studies to better understand the effects of HWs and preventive actions to mitigate the effects caused by this phenomenon.<br><br>DATA SOURCE: The data were obtained from recent studies, conducted in Brazil and abroad, on the impacts of HWs. The figures were attained with data provided by the Climate Change Knowledge Portal.<br><br>DATA SUMMARY: HWs are periods of extreme heat, modulated by climate phenomena such as El Ni&#xf1;o and the Pacific Decadal Oscillations. The frequency and intensity of HWs have increased since the 1950s, driven by climate change. HWs affect public health by increasing the risk of mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Children are more vulnerable to problems such as fever caused by heatstroke, respiratory and kidney infections, as well as risks such as sudden infant death syndrome. Almost half of the HW episodes observed in South America in this century occurred in Brazil, mainly in socioeconomically vulnerable regions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the number of HWs is a direct consequence of climate change and has severe impacts on public health and biodiversity. Vulnerable groups suffer more from these phenomena, and social inequalities aggravate the problems. It is essential to promote awareness, implement effective public policies and encourage interdisciplinary research to mitigate the effects of HWs on society.}, }
@article {pmid39488222, year = {2024}, author = {Romanello, M and Walawender, M and Hsu, SC and Moskeland, A and Palmeiro-Silva, Y and Scamman, D and Ali, Z and Ameli, N and Angelova, D and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Basart, S and Beagley, J and Beggs, PJ and Blanco-Villafuerte, L and Cai, W and Callaghan, M and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Chambers, JD and Chicmana-Zapata, V and Chu, L and Cross, TJ and van Daalen, KR and Dalin, C and Dasandi, N and Dasgupta, S and Davies, M and Dubrow, R and Eckelman, MJ and Ford, JD and Freyberg, C and Gasparyan, O and Gordon-Strachan, G and Grubb, M and Gunther, SH and Hamilton, I and Hang, Y and Hänninen, R and Hartinger, S and He, K and Heidecke, J and Hess, JJ and Jamart, L and Jankin, S and Jatkar, H and Jay, O and Kelman, I and Kennard, H and Kiesewetter, G and Kinney, P and Kniveton, D and Kouznetsov, R and Lampard, P and Lee, JKW and Lemke, B and Li, B and Liu, Y and Liu, Z and Llabrés-Brustenga, A and Lott, M and Lowe, R and Martinez-Urtaza, J and Maslin, M and McAllister, L and McMichael, C and Mi, Z and Milner, J and Minor, K and Minx, J and Mohajeri, N and Momen, NC and Moradi-Lakeh, M and Morrisey, K and Munzert, S and Murray, KA and Obradovich, N and O'Hare, MB and Oliveira, C and Oreszczyn, T and Otto, M and Owfi, F and Pearman, OL and Pega, F and Perishing, AJ and Pinho-Gomes, AC and Ponmattam, J and Rabbaniha, M and Rickman, J and Robinson, E and Rocklöv, J and Rojas-Rueda, D and Salas, RN and Semenza, JC and Sherman, JD and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Singh, P and Sjödin, H and Slater, J and Sofiev, M and Sorensen, C and Springmann, M and Stalhandske, Z and Stowell, JD and Tabatabaei, M and Taylor, J and Tong, D and Tonne, C and Treskova, M and Trinanes, JA and Uppstu, A and Wagner, F and Warnecke, L and Whitcombe, H and Xian, P and Zavaleta-Cortijo, C and Zhang, C and Zhang, R and Zhang, S and Zhang, Y and Zhu, Q and Gong, P and Montgomery, H and Costello, A}, title = {The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: facing record-breaking threats from delayed action.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01822-1}, pmid = {39488222}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid39492214, year = {2022}, author = {Locke, H and Bidle, KD and Thamatrakoln, K and Johns, CT and Bonachela, JA and Ferrell, BD and Wommack, KE}, title = {Marine viruses and climate change: Virioplankton, the carbon cycle, and our future ocean.}, journal = {Advances in virus research}, volume = {114}, number = {}, pages = {67-146}, doi = {10.1016/bs.aivir.2022.09.001}, pmid = {39492214}, issn = {1557-8399}, abstract = {Interactions between marine viruses and microbes are a critical part of the oceanic carbon cycle. The impacts of virus-host interactions range from short-term disruptions in the mobility of microbial biomass carbon to higher trophic levels through cell lysis (i.e., the viral shunt) to long-term reallocation of microbial biomass carbon to the deep sea through accelerating the biological pump (i.e., the viral shuttle). The biogeochemical backdrop of the ocean-the physical, chemical, and biological landscape-influences the likelihood of both virus-host interactions and particle formation, and the fate and flow of carbon. As climate change reshapes the oceanic landscape through large-scale shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, and acidification, virus-mediated carbon flux is likely to shift in response. Dynamics in the directionality and magnitude of changes in how, where, and when viruses mediate the recycling or storage of microbial biomass carbon is largely unknown. Integrating viral infection dynamics data obtained from experimental models and field systems, with particle motion microphysics and global observations of oceanic biogeochemistry, into improved ecosystem models will enable viral oceanographers to better predict the role of viruses in marine carbon cycling in the future ocean.}, }
@article {pmid39492213, year = {2022}, author = {Fay, RL and Keyel, AC and Ciota, AT}, title = {West Nile virus and climate change.}, journal = {Advances in virus research}, volume = {114}, number = {}, pages = {147-193}, doi = {10.1016/bs.aivir.2022.08.002}, pmid = {39492213}, issn = {1557-8399}, abstract = {West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus with a global distribution that is maintained in an enzootic cycle between Culex species mosquitoes and avian hosts. Human infection, which occurs as a result of spillover from this cycle, is generally subclinical or results in a self-limiting febrile illness. Central nervous system infection occurs in a minority of infections and can lead to long-term neurological complications and, rarely, death. WNV is the most prevalent arthropod-borne virus in the United States. Climate change can influence several aspects of WNV transmission including the vector, amplifying host, and virus. Climate change is broadly predicted to increase WNV distribution and risk across the globe, yet there will likely be significant regional variability and limitations to this effect. Increases in temperature can accelerate mosquito and pathogen development, drive increases in vector competence for WNV, and also alter mosquito life history traits including longevity, blood feeding behavior and fecundity. Precipitation, humidity and drought also impact WNV transmissibility. Alteration in avian distribution, diversity and phenology resulting from climate variation add additional complexity to these relationships. Here, we review WNV epidemiology, transmission, disease and genetics in the context of laboratory studies, field investigations, and infectious disease models under climate change. We summarize how mosquito genetics, microbial interactions, host dynamics, viral strain, population size, land use and climate account for distinct relationships that drive WNV activity and discuss how these dynamic and evolving interactions could shape WNV transmission and disease under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39492212, year = {2022}, author = {Montes, N and Pagán, I}, title = {Challenges and opportunities for plant viruses under a climate change scenario.}, journal = {Advances in virus research}, volume = {114}, number = {}, pages = {1-66}, doi = {10.1016/bs.aivir.2022.08.001}, pmid = {39492212}, issn = {1557-8399}, abstract = {There is an increasing societal awareness on the enormous threat that climate change may pose for human, animal and plant welfare. Although direct effects due to exposure to heat, drought or elevated greenhouse gasses seem to be progressively more obvious, indirect effects remain debatable. A relevant aspect to be clarified relates to the relationship between altered environmental conditions and pathogen-induced diseases. In the particular case of plant viruses, it is still unclear whether climate change will primarily represent an opportunity for the emergence of new infections in previously uncolonized areas and hosts, or if it will mostly be a strong constrain reducing the impact of plant virus diseases and challenging the pathogen's adaptive capacity. This review focuses on current knowledge on the relationship between climate change and the outcome plant-virus interactions. We summarize work done on how this relationship modulates plant virus pathogenicity, between-host transmission (which include the triple interaction plant-virus-vector), ecology, evolution and management of the epidemics they cause. Considering these studies, we propose avenues for future research on this subject.}, }
@article {pmid39481105, year = {2024}, author = {Vivion, M and Trottier, V and Bouhêlier, &#xc8; and Goupil-Sormany, I and Diallo, T}, title = {Misinformation About Climate Change and Related Environmental Events on Social Media: Protocol for a Scoping Review.}, journal = {JMIR research protocols}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {e59345}, doi = {10.2196/59345}, pmid = {39481105}, issn = {1929-0748}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Social Media ; Humans ; *Communication ; Canada ; Review Literature as Topic ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and related environmental events represent major global challenges and are often accompanied by the spread of misinformation on social media. According to previous reviews, the dissemination of this misinformation on various social media platforms requires deeper exploration. Moreover, the findings reported applied mainly to the context of the United States, limiting the possibility of extending the results to other settings.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the current state of knowledge about misinformation concerning climate change and related environmental events that are circulating on social media. More specifically, we will explore past and current themes, actors, and sources, and the dissemination of this misinformation within the Canadian context.<br><br>METHODS: This scoping review protocol follows the methodological approach developed by Arksey and O'Malley and advanced by Levac, complemented by the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) checklist and the best practice guidance for the development of scoping review protocols. Following the identification of the research questions and assisted by a specialized librarian, we developed search strategies for selected bibliographic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and GreenFILE) and for gray literature (Google and pertinent databases) searches. Bibliographic and gray literature will be searched to identify relevant publications. In total, 2 members of our team will use the review software Covidence (Veritas Health Innovation) to independently select publications to include in the review. Publications specifically addressing our research questions, peer-reviewed, evidence-based, and published from January 1, 2000, in the full-text version in English or French will be included. Data will be extracted from the included publications to chart, among other items, the years of publication, geographic areas, themes, actors, and sources of the climate change-related misinformation and conclusions reported. Our team will then synthesize the extracted data to articulate the current state of knowledge relating to our research inquiries.<br><br>RESULTS: The research questions were identified in January 2024. The search strategies were developed from January to March 2024 for MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science and in July 2024 for GreenFILE and gray literature. MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science searches were launched on March 26, 2024. The first of 2 rounds of selection of publications identified through these databases was achieved in April 2024.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This protocol will enable us to identify the evolution of themes, actors, and sources of misinformation regarding climate change and related environmental events on social media, including the latest platforms, and to potentially identify a context particular to Canada. As misinformation is known to undermine actions and public support in the fight against climate change, we intend to facilitate the targeting of efforts to combat misinformation related to climate change in an up-to-date and contextualized manner.<br><br>DERR1-10.2196/59345.}, }
@article {pmid39480628, year = {2024}, author = {Habibi, I and Achour, H and Bounaceur, F and Benaradj, A and Aulagnier, S}, title = {Predicting the future distribution of the Barbary ground squirrel (Atlantoxerus getulus) under climate change using niche overlap analysis and species distribution modeling.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {11}, pages = {1140}, pmid = {39480628}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Animals ; *Sciuridae ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Morocco ; Algeria ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Spain ; Animal Distribution ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Introduced Species ; }, abstract = {This study combines niche overlap analysis with species distribution modeling (SDM) to examine the niche dynamics of Atlantoxerus getulus, a ground squirrel native to Morocco and Algeria that has been introduced to the Canary Islands. We compiled 1272 records of A. getulus in its native and exotic ranges and five bioclimatic variables for present and future climate conditions for the years 2050 and 2070. We assessed the ecological niche of the species using exploratory and ordination analyses, followed by the prediction of its distribution using the SpatialMaxent model. Our results showed that the niches of A. getulus exhibited equivalence (p > 0.05) and significant similarity (p < 0.05) between the native and exotic ranges. No observed niche expansion in the exotic area is shown to be associated with complete niche stability. However, 90% of the niche in the Canary Islands remains unfilled, suggesting potential for further invasion. Our results highlighted habitat contractions ranging from 41% (SSP245-2050) to 60% (SSP585-2070), associated with a shift in the centroid of suitable habitat towards the Atlantic coast. These contractions are particularly severe in Algeria, where suitable habitats could disappear by 2050, contrasting with stable habitats maintained in the Canary Islands under all scenarios. Urgent habitat restoration in Algeria is crucial, including efforts to combat poaching. In Morocco, targeted in situ conservation is recommended, while in the Canary Islands, the focus should be on invasive species management and public awareness campaigns to prevent further spread.}, }
@article {pmid39485659, year = {2024}, author = {Ho, YS and Ouchi, A}, title = {Comments on "The economic impact of climate change: a bibliometric analysis of research hotspots and trends".}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39485659}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid39485605, year = {2024}, author = {Elia, MR and Toygar, I and Tomlins, E and Bagcivan, G and Parsa, S and Ginex, PK}, title = {Climate change, climate disasters and oncology care: a descriptive global survey of oncology healthcare professionals.}, journal = {Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer}, volume = {32}, number = {11}, pages = {764}, pmid = {39485605}, issn = {1433-7339}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Personnel/statistics &amp; numerical data/psychology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Medical Oncology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Male ; Female ; Disasters ; Neoplasms/therapy ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Global Health ; Disaster Planning ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: Climate disasters and climate change have implications for healthcare globally. As the number and intensity of climate disasters increase, it is important to understand the effects on healthcare. We conducted a global survey of oncology healthcare providers to identify awareness, experiences, and educational needs related to climate change.<br><br>METHODS: An existing climate and health survey was adapted to oncology. This IRB- approved, 30-item survey measured demographics, climate disaster awareness, effects on cancer care and educational needs. Healthcare professionals employed in oncology settings (practice, research, or academic) were eligible. The survey was disseminated via social media and professional organizations. Descriptive statistics were computed using SPSS.<br><br>RESULTS: 154 responses from 26 countries were received from nurses (56%), physicians (19%), and other healthcare professionals (25%). Common climate change-related events impacting oncology care were extreme heat (63.8%) and heavy rains (52.2%). Respondents reported their workplace has a disaster plan for climate-related weather events (50.4%) or has taken steps to prepare for a climate-related weather event (48.5%). Respondents were aware that the planet has warmed significantly (98.7%), that healthcare contributes to greenhouse gas emissions (98.6%) and reported wanting to learn more about how climate change affects cancer care (88.3%). Preferred educational modalities include webinars (69%), e-learning (55%), journal articles (48.3%), conferences (46.3%) and podcasts (38.9%).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This global survey is the first to identify the awareness, experiences, and educational needs of oncology healthcare professionals related to climate change and climate disasters. Healthcare providers are positioned to take leadership roles related to climate and health.}, }
@article {pmid39484957, year = {2024}, author = {Knowles-Bacon, M}, title = {Veterinary workplaces and climate change.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {195}, number = {9}, pages = {392}, doi = {10.1002/vetr.4893}, pmid = {39484957}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Workplace ; United Kingdom ; Veterinary Medicine/organization &amp; administration ; Veterinarians/psychology ; Societies, Veterinary ; }, abstract = {BVA policy and public affairs manager Megan Knowles-Bacon introduces BVA's latest report, which explores how vet teams can help tackle climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39484699, year = {2024}, author = {Jiao, Y and Zhang, Y and Wang, X and Altshuler, I and Zhou, F and Fang, M and Rinnan, R and Chen, J and Wang, Z}, title = {Awakening: Potential Release of Dormant Chemicals from Thawing Permafrost Soils under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.4c06014}, pmid = {39484699}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Permafrost is a crucial part of the Earth's cryosphere. These millennia-old frozen soils not only are significant carbon reservoirs but also store a variety of chemicals. Accelerated permafrost thaw due to global warming leads to profound consequences such as infrastructure damage, hydrological changes, and, notably, environmental concerns from the release of various chemicals. In this perspective, we metaphorically term long-preserved substances as "dormant chemicals" that experience an "awakening" during permafrost thaw. We begin by providing a comprehensive overview and categorization of these chemicals and their potential transformations, utilizing a combination of field observations, laboratory studies, and modeling approaches to assess their environmental impacts. Following this, we put forward several perspectives on how to enhance the scientific understanding of their ensuing environmental impacts in the context of climate change. Ultimately, we advocate for broader research engagement in permafrost exploration and emphasize the need for extensive environmental chemical studies. This will significantly enhance our understanding of the consequences of permafrost thaw and its broader impact on other ecosystems under rapid climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid39483055, year = {2024}, author = {Annan, H and Baran, I and Litwin, S}, title = {Five I's of Climate Change and Child Health: A Framework for Pediatric Planetary Health Education.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1542/peds.2024-066064}, pmid = {39483055}, issn = {1098-4275}, }
@article {pmid39481911, year = {2024}, author = {Amoah, P and Oumarou Mahamane, AR and Byiringiro, MH and Mahula, NJ and Manneh, N and Oluwasegun, YR and Assfaw, AT and Mukiti, HM and Garba, AD and Chiemeke, FK and Bernard Ojuederie, O and Olasanmi, B}, title = {Genome editing in Sub-Saharan Africa: a game-changing strategy for climate change mitigation and sustainable agriculture.}, journal = {GM crops &amp; food}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {279-302}, doi = {10.1080/21645698.2024.2411767}, pmid = {39481911}, issn = {2164-5701}, mesh = {*Gene Editing/methods ; *Climate Change ; Africa South of the Sahara ; *Crops, Agricultural/genetics ; *Agriculture/methods ; *CRISPR-Cas Systems ; Plant Breeding/methods ; Plants, Genetically Modified/genetics ; Food Security ; }, abstract = {Sub-Saharan Africa's agricultural sector faces a multifaceted challenge due to climate change consisting of high temperatures, changing precipitation trends, alongside intensified pest and disease outbreaks. Conventional plant breeding methods have historically contributed to yield gains in Africa, and the intensifying demand for food security outpaces these improvements due to a confluence of factors, including rising urbanization, improved living standards, and population growth. To address escalating food demands amidst urbanization, rising living standards, and population growth, a paradigm shift toward more sustainable and innovative crop improvement strategies is imperative. Genome editing technologies offer a promising avenue for achieving sustained yield increases while bolstering resilience against escalating biotic and abiotic stresses associated with climate change. Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats/CRISPR-associated protein (CRISPR/Cas) is unique due to its ubiquity, efficacy, alongside precision, making it a pivotal tool for Sub-Saharan African crop improvement. This review highlights the challenges and explores the prospect of gene editing to secure the region's future foods.}, }
@article {pmid39478602, year = {2024}, author = {Frantz, CM and Bushkin, L and O'Keefe, D}, title = {Evaluating the usefulness of Protection Motivation Theory for predicting climate change mitigation behavioral intentions among a US sample of climate change deniers and acknowledgers.}, journal = {BMC psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {605}, pmid = {39478602}, issn = {2050-7283}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Intention ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; *Motivation ; United States ; *Psychological Theory ; Young Adult ; Middle Aged ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This paper summarizes data from 7 studies that used Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to guide climate messaging with the goal of increasing climate-mitigating behavioral intentions. Together, the studies address 5 research questions. 1) Does PMT predict behavioral intentions in the context of climate change mitigation? 2) Does PMT work similarly for climate change deniers vs acknowledgers? 3) Are the effects of threat and efficacy additive or multiplicative? 4) Does adding measures of collective threat and efficacy improve the model accuracy for a collective problem like climate change? 5) Can threat and efficacy appraisals - and ultimately behavioral intentions - be shifted through climate messaging?<br><br>METHODS: Seven online experiments were conducted on US adults (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;3,761) between 2020 and 2022. Participants were randomly assigned to a control condition or to one of several experimental conditions designed to influence threat, efficacy, or both. Participants indicated their belief in climate change, ethnicity, gender, and political orientation. They completed measures of personal threat and efficacy, collective threat and efficacy, and behavioral intentions.<br><br>RESULTS: Multiple regressions, ANCOVAs, and effect sizes were used to evaluate our research questions. Consistent with PMT, threat and efficacy appraisals predicted climate mitigation behavioral intentions, even among those who denied climate change. Different interactions emerged for climate deniers and acknowledgers, suggesting that in this context threat and efficacy are not just additive in their effects (but these effects were small). Including measures of collective threat and efficacy only modestly improved the model. Finally, evidence that threat and efficacy appraisals can be shifted was weak and inconsistent; mitigation behavioral intentions were not reliably influenced by the messages tested.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: PMT effectively predicts climate change mitigation behavioral intentions among US adults, whether they deny climate change or acknowledge it. Threat appraisals may be more impactful for deniers, while efficacy appraisals may be more impactful for acknowledgers. Including collective-level measures of threat and efficacy modestly improves model fit. Contrary to PMT research in other domains, threat and efficacy appraisals were not easily shifted under the conditions tested here, and increases did not reliably lead to increases in behavioral intentions.}, }
@article {pmid39477861, year = {2024}, author = {Devi, V and Fulekar, MH and Charles, B and Reddy, CS and Pathak, B}, title = {Predicting the habitat suitability and species richness of plants of Great Himalayan National Park under different climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {11}, pages = {1136}, pmid = {39477861}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; *Ecosystem ; *Parks, Recreational ; *Plants ; India ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; }, abstract = {This study elucidates the distribution of plants in Great Himalayan National Park (GHNP), India, in current and different future climate change scenarios. The distribution of plants and habitat suitability in GHNP due to climate change was analyzed by MaxEnt, species distribution model (SDM) algorithm. In this study, species presence records were retrieved through field survey and published literature. We have projected the distribution of 44 plant species using MaxEnt and tested whether GHNP is performing well in conserving the plant species. Initially, we have constructed a model for each species and created the habitat suitability map from average of ascii files and later we added the maps of all species in order to make binary map to show the species richness in the selected climate scenarios. The model was created using the HADGEM-2 global circulation model in 2050 and 2070 years by using climate change situations of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The area under curve (AUC) values in the final models of 44 plant species were in the range 0.70-0.97 that indicates statistically significant results. The model identified precipitation of driest month followed by altitude and annual mean temperature as most determining variables in the distribution of plants of GHNP in selected climate scenarios. In the present study, we found that overall suitable habitat increased for nine species, decreased for thirty-four, and unchanged for one plant species in terms of percent area change from current to future scenarios. So these nine species were found to be more adaptable towards changing climate than the other plant species in this study. The species richness was high in western and southwestern parts of GHNP in the current scenario, however under future climatic scenarios, species richness shows a decreasing trend. Based on our findings, it can be concluded that GHNP should be prioritized for conserving the plant species.}, }
@article {pmid39476548, year = {2024}, author = {Berg, A}, title = {Causal inference from high-dimensional static data in soil microbiota networks: Comment on "Topological change of soil microbiota networks for forest resilience under global warming" by Gong et al.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {51}, number = {}, pages = {281-282}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2024.10.012}, pmid = {39476548}, issn = {1873-1457}, }
@article {pmid39471911, year = {2024}, author = {Pinto-Zevallos, DM and Blande, JD}, title = {Challenges of climate change and air pollution for volatile-mediated plant-parasitoid signalling.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {101290}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2024.101290}, pmid = {39471911}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Herbivore-induced plant volatiles (HIPVs) are reliable cues that parasitoids can use to locate host patches. Interactions mediated by plant volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are vulnerable to disturbance by predicted climate change and air pollution scenarios. Abiotic stress-induced VOCs may act as false signals to parasitoids. Air pollutants can disrupt signalling by degrading HIPVs at different rates and preventing the perception of olfactory signals by reducing the sensitivity of olfactory receptors or by occluding insect sensillae. As essential components of biological control programmes, efforts should be made to assess how different parasitoid species respond and adapt to HIPVs in predicted scenarios. Since providing parasitoid food sources is a promising practice for boosting biological control, parasitoid-flower interactions deserve attention.}, }
@article {pmid39469751, year = {2024}, author = {Leblanc, N and Légaré, AG and Diallo, T and Sasseville, M and Gadio, S and Lessard, L}, title = {Knowledge, Attitudes, and Perceptions of Quebec Nurses Relating to Climate Change in the Context of Their Practice with Children Aged 0 to 5 Years: A Cross-Sectional Descriptive Study.}, journal = {The Canadian journal of nursing research = Revue canadienne de recherche en sciences infirmieres}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {8445621241292171}, doi = {10.1177/08445621241292171}, pmid = {39469751}, issn = {1705-7051}, abstract = {STUDY BACKGROUND: Reducing children's vulnerability to climate change (CC) depends firstly on parents having the ability to adapt.<br><br>PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to describe knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of nurses in support of parents' ability to adapt to CC to protect the physical and psychosocial health of 0-5 year olds.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional descriptive study was used. A total of 127 pediatric nurses from the province of Quebec completed an online questionnaire documenting nurses' knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions about CC.<br><br>RESULTS: A third of nurses have little or no knowledge of the health risks of CC for children, even though they consider it to be a major issue for children. Nurses perceive that parents don't generally consider their children to be among the most vulnerable to CC, trivialize their effects on their children's health, have little knowledge of the effects of CC mainly on their children's psychosocial health, know little about the means to use to protect them, and more readily seek help from family and friends to ensure their children's protection. Nurses affirm that they are responsible for discussing the health effects of CC with parents, introduce measures to reduce their effects, possess little knowledge and few skills for reducing their effects, and feel unprepared to deal with their effects in their practice.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Greater access to training on CC-related concepts is needed to increase nurses' knowledge. Nurses' perceptions must be validated with parents to promote optimal protection of children from CC.}, }
@article {pmid39469618, year = {2023}, author = {Viegas, S and Santos, JA and Kazmierczak, A and Assunção, R and Viegas, C and Martins, C}, title = {Training on the Impact of Climate Change on Public Health: Reflections and Lessons Learnt.}, journal = {Portuguese journal of public health}, volume = {41}, number = {3}, pages = {230-234}, pmid = {39469618}, issn = {2504-3145}, }
@article {pmid39468261, year = {2024}, author = {Tsiftsis, S and Štípková, Z and Rejmánek, M and Kindlmann, P}, title = {Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {25778}, pmid = {39468261}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {L200872201//PPLZ Program/ ; }, abstract = {Changes in climate and land use are the most often mentioned factors responsible for the current decline in species diversity. To reduce the effect of these factors, we need reliable predictions of future species distributions. This is usually done by utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) based on expected climate. Here we explore the accuracy of such projections: we use orchid (Orchidaceae) recordings and environmental (mainly climatic) data from the years 1901-1950 in SDMs to predict maps of potential species distributions in 1980-2014. This should enable us to compare the predictions of species distributions in 1980-2014, based on records of species distribution in the years 1901-1950, with real data in the 1980-2014 period. We found that the predictions of the SDMs often differ from reality in this experiment. The results clearly indicate that SDM predictions of future species distributions as a reaction to climate change must be treated with caution.}, }
@article {pmid39468111, year = {2024}, author = {Al-Rawas, G and Nikoo, MR and Janbehsarayi, SFM and Hassani, MR and Imani, S and Niksokhan, MH and Nazari, R}, title = {Near future flash flood prediction in an arid region under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {25887}, pmid = {39468111}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {SR/DVC/CESR/22/01//Sultan Qaboos University/ ; }, abstract = {Flash floods represent a significant threat, triggering severe natural disasters and leading to extensive damage to properties and infrastructure, which in turn results in the loss of lives and significant economic damages. In this study, a comprehensive statistical approach was applied to future flood predictions in the coastal basin of North Al-Abatinah, Oman. In this context, the initial step involves analyzing eighteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) to identify the most suitable one. Subsequently, we assessed four CMIP6 scenarios for future rainfall analysis. Next, different Machine Learning (ML) algorithms were employed through H2O-AutoML to identify the best model for downscaling future rainfall predictions. Forty distribution functions were then fitted to the future daily rainfall, and the best-fit model was selected to project future Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. Finally, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was utilized with sub-daily time steps to make accurate flash flood predictions in the study area. The findings reveal that IITM-ESM is the most effective among GCM models. Additionally, the application of stacked ensemble ML model proved to be the most reliable in downscaling future rainfall. Furthermore, this study highlighted that floods entering urbanized areas could reach 20.33 and 20.70 m[[3]]/s under pessimistic scenarios during rainfall events with 100 and 200-year return periods, respectively. This hierarchical comprehensive approach provides reliable results by utilizing the most effective model at each step, offering in-depth insight into future flash flood prediction.}, }
@article {pmid39465289, year = {2024}, author = {Hansen, J}, title = {Public History: Infrastructure, Climate Change, and Radical Action.}, journal = {Technology and culture}, volume = {65}, number = {4}, pages = {1309-1321}, doi = {10.1353/tech.2024.a940471}, pmid = {39465289}, issn = {1097-3729}, mesh = {*Climate Change/history ; Humans ; *Motion Pictures/history ; History, 21st Century ; Technology/history ; United States ; }, abstract = {This essay reviews the 2022 American film How to Blow Up a Pipeline, examining its significance for historians of technology. The film highlights do-it-yourself technologies, the experiences of marginalized technology users, and the environmental consequences of infrastructures. Central to the discussion is the film's dystopian portrayal of infrastructure, which drives the characters to take extreme measures, such as the bombing of an oil pipeline, to raise awareness about climate change. While the film might seem to advocate for radical action, this review suggests that it offers historians an opportunity to engage with broader social issues and reflect on the methodological challenges within the history of technology.}, }
@article {pmid39469498, year = {2022}, author = {Viegas, S}, title = {Exposure Science in a Climate Change Scenario.}, journal = {Portuguese journal of public health}, volume = {40}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, pmid = {39469498}, issn = {2504-3145}, }
@article {pmid39465275, year = {2024}, author = {Muniz, AC and de Lemos-Filho, JP and Lovato, MB}, title = {Non-adaptedness and vulnerability to climate change threaten Plathymenia trees (Fabaceae) from the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {25611}, pmid = {39465275}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Fabaceae/genetics ; Trees/genetics ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasing species extinction risk. The ability of a species to cope with climate change can be quantified by projecting distribution models and by estimating the risk of non-adaptedness using genomic data. The Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest in Tropical South America are increasingly threatened by habitat loss and anthropogenic climate change. This work aims to evaluate the ecological and genomic vulnerability of Plathymenia taxa and its lineages, P. reticulata, a Cerrado species, and P. foliolosa, an Atlantic Forest species, to determine their current and future habitat suitability and the mismatch between current local adaptation with the expected climate changes. The species distribution models predicted a high range loss for the Plathymenia lineages. The genotype-environment association analyses showed that the Plathymenia lineages have populations adapted to different precipitation and temperature seasonality regimes. The genomic offset analyses predict a mismatch between local adaptations and future climate for the Plathymenia indicating a high risk of non-adaptedness, especially in the pessimistic scenario. Our results show an elevated extinction risk of the species due to climate change. We suggest reevaluating the extinction risk and management of the Plathymenia species separately based on their differences in vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39464979, year = {2024}, author = {Beri, D and Elkington, J and Moola, S and Bhaumik, S and Jagnoor, J}, title = {Impact of climate change on water-related physical events, consequent human migration, and burden of drowning in India: An evidence synthesis.}, journal = {Journal of family medicine and primary care}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {3552-3563}, pmid = {39464979}, issn = {2249-4863}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Disrupted weather patterns are associated with climate change. Between 2001 and 2018, nearly 74% of disasters were water-related, including floods and cyclones. Such water-related cataclysmic events increase the risk of drowning. We aimed to map evidence on the impact of climate change on water-related physical events, associated human migration, and drowning burden in India.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched electronic databases, government reports, and relevant websites to map evidence on water-related physical events (including but not limited to sea-level rise, glacier bursts, lake bursts, floods, rainfall, cyclones, and droughts) and consequent human migration using narrative review approach, while drowning burden through scoping review approach. We summarized the results narratively.<br><br>RESULTS: Evidence from 48 studies and seven reports suggest that India will witness the greatest sea-level rise, significantly impacting poor coastal communities. An increase in droughts, cyclonic rainfall, storms, and floods, with increasing surface rainwater and streamflow water, due to melting glaciers is expected. Climate change-triggered migration is expected notably in northeast and south India, making farmers, drivers, street vendors, women, and youth most vulnerable. No direct evidence was identified on the impact of climate change, water-related disasters, meteorological events, or seasonal variations on drowning from India.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our study highlights a significant gap in the availability of context-specific and localized data to improve disaster response and strengthen public health systems, especially for areas most vulnerable to climate change. There is an urgent need to generate new knowledge and understanding of climate change, water-related or meteorological events, and seasonal variations' impact on drowning burden as the level of risk remains unknown.}, }
@article {pmid39464280, year = {2024}, author = {Mao, X and Zheng, H and Luo, G and Liao, S and Wang, R and Tang, M and Chen, H}, title = {Climate change favors expansion of three Eucalyptus species in China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1443134}, pmid = {39464280}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Eucalyptus has become one of the most widely planted species in tropical and subtropical regions in China, with important economic, ecological, and social values. However, it is currently unclear how climate change will affect different Eucalyptus species. Therefore, it is urgent to investigate the potential distribution and dynamics of Eucalyptus under current and future climate scenarios. In this study, we analyzed the potential distribution patterns of the three main Eucalyptus species (Eucalyptus grandis, Eucalyptus urophylla, and Eucalyptus tereticornis) under current and future climatic conditions (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) using the optimized MaxEnt model, which integrates a variety of environmental data including climate, topography, soil, and human influence. We also identified the main factors affecting the potential distributions of the three main Eucalyptus species. The model indicated that E. grandis exhibited heightened sensitivity to the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (7.0-20.0 °C) and annual mean temperature (11.9-24.2 °C), whereas E. urophylla displayed heightened sensitivity to precipitation of the warmest quarter (272-1694 mm) and annual precipitation (812-2624 mm). Conversely, E. tereticornis demonstrated heightened sensitivity to annual mean temperature (12.7-24.5 °C) and temperature seasonality (63.8-598.9). Under the current climate, E. tereticornis had the widest suitable distribution area (124.91 × 10[4] km[2]), followed by E. grandis (124.89 × 10[4] km[2]) and E. urophylla (119.81 × 10[4] km[2]). Under future climate change scenarios, the suitable ranges of E. grandis, E. urophylla and E. tereticornis will continue to expand. This study highlights the importance of climate change in Eucalyptus distribution and provides quantified potential distribution maps for three Eucalyptus species under current and future climate conditions in China. This research offers valuable scientific insights pertinent to the management and rational site selection for Eucalyptus plantations.}, }
@article {pmid39463739, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, Y and Yang, Y and Zhang, M}, title = {The influence of climate change on the potential distribution of Ageratum conyzoides in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {e11513}, pmid = {39463739}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Ageratum conyzoides L., an invasive plant originating from South America, is characterized by rapid growth and strong ecological adaptability, posing a threat to China's ecosystems, agricultural industry, and biodiversity. In this study, we optimized the MaxEnt model using the ENMeval package and constructed an ensemble model using the Biomod2 package based on global geospatial distribution data of A. conyzoides and considering climate, soil, and topography factors. We simulated the potential suitable distribution of A. conyzoides in China at present and in the future (2041-2060, 2061-2080). Through multivariate environment similarity surface and most dissimilar variable analysis, we identified the main environmental variables influencing the distribution of A. conyzoides. Additionally, niche analysis elucidated temporal and spatial variations in A. conyzoides' climate niche. Our results demonstrate that the ensemble model, constructed from the top seven single models, outperforms the individual models in predicting the suitable habitat of A. conyzoides. The ensemble model achieved the true skill statistic (TSS) of 0.833 and the area under the subject curve (AUC) of 0.971, indicative of outstanding predictive performance. Presently, the suitable habitat of A. conyzoides in China primarily exists in the region between 18° and 28° N, covering approximately 1.47 million km[2]. The temperature annual range, precipitation of the wettest month, and mean temperature of the coldest quarter were identified as the primary environmental variables influencing its distribution, while soil and elevation variables had minor roles. Under future climate conditions, the suitable habitat of A. conyzoides is expected to expand northeastward, with the centroid of its habitat shifting northward as the climate warms. The migration speed of A. conyzoides is projected to increase with the degree of warming. Furthermore, the climate niche of A. conyzoides will undergo certain changes and may face both niche expansion and a decrease in niche overlap under different climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39461512, year = {2024}, author = {Adeyeri, OE and Folorunsho, AH and Adeliyi, TE and Ayegbusi, IK and Akinsanola, AA and Ndehedehe, CE and Ahmed, N and Babalola, TE}, title = {Climate change is intensifying rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in West Africa.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {177174}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177174}, pmid = {39461512}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Soil erosion is a critical environmental challenge with significant implications for agriculture, water quality, and ecosystem stability. Understanding its dynamics is essential for sustainable environmental management and societal welfare. Here, we analyze rainfall erosivity and erosion patterns across West Africa (WAF) during the historical (1982-2014), near future (2028-2060), and far future (2068-2100) periods under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 370 and 585). Using bias-corrected-downscaled (BCD) climate models validated against reference data, we ensure an accurate representation of rainfall-a key driver of erosivity (R-factor) and soil erosion. We compare Renard's approach and the Modified Fournier Index (MFI) to calculate the R-factor and note a strong correlation. However, Renard's method shows slightly lower accuracy in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and The Gambia, likely due to its inability to capture high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events. In contrast, the MFI, utilizing continuous rain gauge data, proves more reliable for these regions. We also attribute fluctuations in erosivity, such as those seen during the 2003 West Africa floods, to synoptic weather patterns influenced by multiple climate processes. Furthermore, our analysis reveals regions where future soil erosion could exceed 20 t/ha/yr due to climate change. Under the SSP 370 scenario, soil erosion in WAF is projected to rise by 14.84 % in the near future and 18.65 % in the far future, increasing further under SSP 585 to 19.86 % and 23.49 %, respectively. The most severe increases are expected in Benin and Nigeria, with Nigeria potentially facing a 66.41 % rise in erosion by the far future under SSP 585. These findings highlight the region's exposure to intensified climatic conditions and underscore the urgent need for targeted soil management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate erosion's ecological and socioeconomic impacts.}, }
@article {pmid39460932, year = {2024}, author = {Alum, EU}, title = {Climate change and its impact on the bioactive compound profile of medicinal plants: implications for global health.}, journal = {Plant signaling &amp; behavior}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {2419683}, doi = {10.1080/15592324.2024.2419683}, pmid = {39460932}, issn = {1559-2324}, }
@article {pmid39460732, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, FX and Li, HL and Wan, JZ and Wang, CJ}, title = {Identifying key monitoring areas for tree insect pest risks in China under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toae215}, pmid = {39460732}, issn = {1938-291X}, support = {3190073//Fondecyt project/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change can exacerbate pest population growth, posing significant threats to ecosystem functions and services, social development, and food security. Risk assessment is a valuable tool for effective pest management that identifies potential pest expansion and ecosystem dispersal patterns. We applied a habitat suitability model coupled with priority protection planning software to determine key monitoring areas (KMA) for tree insect pest risks under climate change and used forest ecoregions and nature reserves to assess the ecological risk of insect pest invasion. Finally, we collated the prevention and control measures for reducing future pest invasions. The KMA for tree insect pests in our current and future climate is mainly concentrated in eastern and southern China. However, with climate change, the KMA gradually expands from southeastern to northeastern China. In the current and future climate scenarios, ecoregions requiring high monitoring levels were restricted to the eastern and southern coastal areas of China, and nature reserves requiring the highest monitoring levels were mainly distributed in southeastern China. Tree insect pest invasion assessment using ecoregions and nature reserves identified that future climates increase the risk of pest invasions in forest ecoregions and nature reserves, especially in northeastern China. The increased risk and severity of tree insect pest invasions require implementing monitoring and preventative measures in these areas. We effectively assessed the pest invasion risks using forest ecoregions and nature reserves under climate change. Our assessments suggest that monitoring and early prevention should focus on southeastern and northeastern China.}, }
@article {pmid39458873, year = {2024}, author = {Flores, A and Flores-Ortíz, CM and Dávila-Aranda, PD and Rodríguez-Arévalo, NI and Sampayo-Maldonado, S and Cabrera-Santos, D and Gianella, M and Ulian, T}, title = {The Germination Performance After Dormancy Breaking of Leucaena diversifolia (Schltdl.) Benth. Seeds in a Thermal Gradient and Its Distribution Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {39458873}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {IG200323//Technological Research and Innovation Support Program (PAPIIT), UNAM/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change models predict temperature increases, which may affect germination, an important stage in the recruitment of individuals in agroecosystems. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct research on how temperature will impact the germination of multipurpose native species. Leucaena diversifolia (Schltdl.) Benth. is native to America and is commonly cultivated around the world due to having a high protein content in seeds, and their trees are used in agrosilvopastoral systems because they fix nitrogen and provide shade and cattle feed. However, climate change affects the critical phases of its life cycle and influences its growth, reproduction, phenology, and distribution. To assess the germination performance of Leucaena diversifolia under different temperatures throughout thermal times, we estimated germination variables and determined cardinal temperatures and thermal time; we also analysed germination and potential distribution under two climate change scenarios. We found significant variations in seed germination (78-98%) and differences in cardinal temperatures (Tb = 5.17 and 7.6 °C, To = 29.42 and 29.54 °C, and Tc = 39.45 and 39.76 °C). On the other hand, the sub-optimal and supra-optimal temperature values showed little differences: 51.34 and 55.57 °Cd. The models used showed variations in germination time for the analysed scenarios and the potential distribution. We confirm that the populations and distribution of L. diversifolia will be altered due to climate changes, but the species retains the ability to germinate under warmer conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39458826, year = {2024}, author = {Mir, R and Mircea, DM and Ruiz-González, MX and Brocal-Rubio, P and Boscaiu, M and Vicente, O}, title = {Cakile maritima: A Halophyte Model to Study Salt Tolerance Mechanisms and Potential Useful Crop for Sustainable Saline Agriculture in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {39458826}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Salinity is an increasing problem for agriculture. Most plant species tolerate low or, at best, moderate soil salinities. However, a small (<1%) proportion of species, termed halophytes, can survive and complete their life cycle in natural habitats with salinities equivalent to 200 mM NaCl or more. Cakile maritima is a succulent annual halophyte belonging to the Brassicaceae family; it is dispersed worldwide and mainly grows in foreshores. Cakile maritima growth is optimal under slight (i.e., 100 mM NaCl) saline conditions, measured by biomass and seed production. Higher salt concentrations, up to 500 mM NaCl, significantly impact its growth but do not compromise its survival. Cakile maritima alleviates sodium toxicity through different strategies, including anatomical and morphological adaptations, ion transport regulation, biosynthesis of osmolytes, and activation of antioxidative mechanisms. The species is potentially useful as a cash crop for the so-called biosaline agriculture due to its production of secondary metabolites of medical and nutritional interest and the high oil accumulation in its seeds. In this review, we highlight the relevance of this species as a model for studying the basic mechanisms of salt tolerance and for sustainable biosaline agriculture in the context of soil salination and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39458793, year = {2024}, author = {Poudel, A and Adhikari, P and Adhikari, P and Choi, SH and Yun, JY and Lee, YH and Hong, SH}, title = {Predicting the Invasion Risk of the Highly Invasive Acacia mearnsii in Asia under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {39458793}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {RS-2024-00400922//Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs/ ; }, abstract = {Acacia mearnsii, among the 100 worst invasive weeds worldwide, negatively impacts native biodiversity, agriculture, and natural ecosystems. Global climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, enhances the risk of A. mearnsii invasion in Asia, making it crucial to identify high-risk areas for effective management. This study performed species distribution modeling using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to predict the potential introduction and spread of A. mearnsii under various climate scenarios based on shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Currently, only 4.35% of Asia is invaded, with a high invasion risk identified in six countries, including Bhutan, Lebanon, and Taiwan, where more than 75% of their areas are threatened. Under future climate scenarios, 21 countries face invasion risk, among which 14 countries, such as Georgia, Laos, Republic of Korea, and Turkey, are at moderate to very high risk, potentially encompassing up to 87.89% of their territories. Conversely, Northern Asian countries exhibit minimal changes in invasion risk and are considered relatively safe from invasion. These findings underscore that climate change will exacerbate invasion risks across Asia, emphasizing the urgent need for robust management strategies, including stringent quarantine measures and control efforts, to mitigate the threat of A. mearnsii expansion.}, }
@article {pmid39455435, year = {2024}, author = {Casteli Figueiredo Gallardo, AL and Bond, A}, title = {A Nature-based Solutions Framework for Embedding Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation into Urban Land Use Plans through Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA).}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39455435}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {2023/14.497-6//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts comprise a particular challenge for authorities when reconciling the implications of land use planning decisions. Whilst Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is typically applied to the development of urban land use plans, the selection of mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change impacts can have knock-on effects on nature. However, Nature-based Solutions (NbSs) could provide an innovative means of addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation without these knock-on effects. The main aim of this research is therefore to propose a conceptual framework for embedding NbSs into the main stages of the SEA process to potentially enhance climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban land use planning. This is achieved through a systematic literature review of academic and grey literature sources, with subsequent content analysis. This study demonstrates the value of matching these manifold NbS approaches to climate change impacts potentially addressed in SEA process stages and suggests how this might be achieved in practice focusing on urban land use plans.}, }
@article {pmid39455129, year = {2024}, author = {An, M and Wei, YQ and He, WJ and Huang, J and Fang, X and Song, MF and Wang, B}, title = {[Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Ecological Sensitivity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {45}, number = {10}, pages = {5833-5843}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.202311071}, pmid = {39455129}, issn = {0250-3301}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Rivers ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Environmental Monitoring ; Economic Development ; }, abstract = {The increasing climate change and human activities exert their influence on the ecological sensitivity of the region individually and interactively. Therefore, a clear understanding of the impact of climate change and human activities on ecological sensitivity will enhance the resilience of the regional ecological environment and the level of sustainable development. This study took the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the first demonstration zone of China's ecological civilization construction, as the research object. Based on the meteorological, remote sensing, and statistical data of 130 cities in the whole region from 2001 to 2021, an index system of climate change, human activities, and ecological sensitivity was constructed. Response surface methodology （RSM） was used to explore the effects of climate and anthropogenic single factors and interactions on the ecological sensitivity in each region. The results showed that： ① The ecological sensitivity value of the belt fluctuated and rose in time, rising by 2.2% from 2001 to 2021. In terms of space, the overall spatial distribution was "high in the north and low in the south." In 2021, the proportion of severely and extremely sensitive cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt reached nearly 50%. ② For a single factor, the distribution of the effect of the same factor had certain characteristics： The areas where the single factors of economic development, rainfall, and temperature had a positive impact on the ecological sensitivity were concentrated in the areas with higher or faster economic development, along and south of the Yangtze River. For the interaction factors, the effect of 78.6% of the factors on the ecological sensitivity was negative interaction, and the change of one factor level would change the direction of the effect of the other factor on the regional sensitivity. ③ The comprehensive ecological management area of the Yangtze River Economic Belt was divided based on the ecological sensitivity and climate sensitivity. The governance areas that needed priority improvement were clustered within the three urban agglomerations and their northern adjacent areas, which meant that the ecological sensitivity and climate sensitivity of a city had spillover effects. This study is expected to provide inspiration for the economic zone and even the national and global efforts in the field of regional ecological governance.}, }
@article {pmid39454798, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, F and Matthew, C and Pu, X and Li, X and Nan, Z}, title = {Patterns of foliar fungal diseases and the effects on aboveground biomass in alpine meadow under simulated climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {177026}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177026}, pmid = {39454798}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid39452615, year = {2024}, author = {Duijvestein, M and Sidhu, R and Zimmermann, K and Carrington, EV and Hann, A and Sousa, P and Touw, HRW and van Hooft, JE and Müller, M}, title = {The United European Gastroenterology green paper-climate change and gastroenterology.}, journal = {United European gastroenterology journal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ueg2.12698}, pmid = {39452615}, issn = {2050-6414}, abstract = {Climate change, described by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2021 as 'the single biggest health threat facing humanity', causes extreme weather, disrupts food supplies, and increases the prevalence of diseases, thereby affecting human health, medical practice, and healthcare stability. Greener Gastroenterology is an important movement that has the potential to make a real difference in reducing the impact of the delivery of healthcare, on the environment. The WHO defines an environmentally sustainable health system as one which would improve, maintain or restore health while minimizing negative environmental impacts. Gastroenterologists encounter the impacts of climate change in daily patient care. Alterations in the gut microbiome and dietary habits, air pollution, heat waves, and the distribution of infectious diseases result in changed disease patterns affecting gastrointestinal and hepatic health, with particularly severe impacts on vulnerable groups such as children, adolescents, and the elderly. Additionally, women are disproportionally affected, since climate change can exacerbate gender inequalities. Paradoxically, while healthcare aims to improve health, the sector is responsible for 4.4% of global carbon emissions. Endoscopy is a significant waste producer in healthcare, being the third highest generator with 3.09 kg of waste per day per bed, contributing to the carbon footprint of the GI sector. Solutions to the climate crisis can offer significant health co-benefits. Steps to reduce our carbon footprint include fostering a Planetary Health Diet and implementing measures for greener healthcare, such as telemedicine, digitalization, education, and research on sustainable healthcare practices. Adhering to the principles of 'reduce, reuse, recycle' is crucial. Reducing unnecessary procedures, which constitute a significant portion of endoscopies, can significantly decrease the carbon footprint and enhance sustainability. This position paper by the United European Gastroenterology aims to raise awareness and outline key principles that the GI workforce can adopt to tackle the climate crisis together.}, }
@article {pmid39452401, year = {2024}, author = {Bian, H and Yu, S and Li, W and Lu, J and Jia, C and Mao, J and Fu, Q and Song, Y and Cai, P}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Peach Fruit Moth Phenology: A Regional Perspective from China.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {39452401}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {202310397007, 202310397025//Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program for College Students at National Level/ ; N2023Z007//Nanping Academy of Resource Industrialization Chemistry Project/ ; N2023J004//Key Project of the Nanping Natural Fund/ ; 2023XQ019//Key Technological Innovation and Industrialization Project/ ; NP2021KTS04//Special Funds for Technological Representative/ ; }, abstract = {It is widely recognized that the phenology of insects, of which the life activities are closely tied to temperature, is shifting in response to global climate warming. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on the phenology of Carposina sasakii Matsumura, 1900 (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae) across large temporal and spatial scales, through collecting and systematically analyzing historical data on the pest's occurrence and population dynamics in China. The results showed that for overwintering adults, the first occurrence date in eastern, northwestern, and northern China has significantly advanced, along with the population peak in eastern and northwestern China. At the provincial level, the population peak date in Shandong province has also moved significantly earlier, as well as the population peak date in Shandong and Shaanxi and the end occurrence date in Ningxia. However, the population peak date in Jilin has experienced a delayed trend. For first-generation adults, the first occurrence date in northeastern, eastern, and central China has notably advanced, while the first appearance date in northwestern and northern China has significantly delayed. Additionally, the population peak in northwestern China has experienced significant delays, along with the final occurrence in northeastern and northwestern China. At the provincial level, the first occurrence date in Liaoning, Shandong, and Shanxi has significantly advanced, while Hebei has demonstrated a significant delay. The population peak time in Gansu and Shaanxi has displayed significant delays, and the end occurrence date in Liaoning, Shanxi, and Shaanxi has also shown significant delays. Furthermore, these findings integrated with the Pearson correlation results reveal spatial heterogeneity in C. sasakii's phenological responses to climate warming at both regional and provincial scales. The phenology of C. sasakii and their changing patterns with climate warming vary by geographical location. This study provides valuable information for the future monitoring, prediction, and prevention of peach fruit moths in the context of climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid39452396, year = {2024}, author = {Kim, SY and Lim, C and Kang, JH and Bae, YJ}, title = {The Effect of Climate Change on Indicator Wetland Insects: Predicting the Current and Future Distribution of Two Giant Water Bugs (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae) in South Korea.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {39452396}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {Giant water bugs (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae) are top predators in wetland ecosystems, serving as biological indicators of the health of lentic ecosystems and as effective biological control agents for freshwater snails and mosquitoes. This study aimed to predict the current and future distribution of two Korean giant water bugs, Appasus japonicus and Diplonychus esakii, under three climate change scenarios, contributing to the sustainable management of wetland ecosystems in South Korea. Using MaxEnt models, we employed seven climatic and three non-climatic variables to investigate the habitat preferences and distribution patterns of the species. The results revealed that A. japonicus is likely to experience a northward range contraction due to climate change, while D. esakii is predicted to expand its distribution northward without losing its current range. These responses may lead to occupancy turnover between the two species, potentially driving reassembly in aquatic organism community. Elevation was the primary factor influencing the distribution of A. japonicus, whereas annual mean temperature was the most informative variable for D. esakii, both factors derived under the current climate conditions. These findings suggest that both species are highly sensitive to climate change, with potential range shifts toward higher latitudes and elevations. This study provides insights into how climate change could impact two giant water bugs, thereby supporting future efforts to manage and conserve wetland ecosystems in this country.}, }
@article {pmid39452369, year = {2024}, author = {Cruz, TMP and Buchmann, SL and Prudic, KL}, title = {Buzzing towards Resilience: Investigating the Spatial Alignment of the Desert Pallid Bee, Centris pallida, and Its Host Plants in Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {39452369}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {1929499//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Wild bees are vital for the pollination of native plants and crops, providing essential ecosystem services. Climate change is known to impact biodiversity and species distributions, but insects adapted to desert ecosystems may exhibit unique physiological, behavioral, and evolutionary responses. The desert pallid bee (C. pallida), a solitary bee native to the arid southwestern United States and northern Mexico, primarily forages on yellow palo verde (P. microphylla), blue palo verde (P. florida), and desert ironwood (O. tesota). This study used MaxEnt to estimate the current and projected geographical overlap of suitable habitats for C. pallida and its host plants. Here, we used MaxEnt to estimate the current and forecasted overlapping geographically suitable habitat of C. pallida with all three host plants. We forecasted potential environmentally suitable areas for each species to the year 2040 using the current distribution model and climate projections with moderate CO2 levels. We found a continued spatial alignment in the suitable area of the bee and its host plants with a 70% increase in the range overlap area, though shifted to higher average altitudes and a slight northern expansion. These findings may provide insight to stakeholders on the conservation needs of desert-dwelling pollinators.}, }
@article {pmid39452332, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, Y and Xu, D and Peng, Y and Zhuo, Z}, title = {Mapping Species Distributions of Latoia consocia Walker under Climate Change Using Current Geographical Presence Data and MAXENT (CMIP 6).}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {39452332}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {20A007, 20E051, 21E040 and 22kA011//China West Normal University/ ; 2022NSFSC0986//Sichuan Province Science and Technology/ ; }, abstract = {Latoia consocia Walker is an important phytophagous pest that has rapidly spread across North China in recent years, posing a severe threat to related plants. To study the impact of climatic conditions on its distribution and to predict its distribution under current and future climate conditions, the MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS 10.8 software were used. The results showed that the MaxEnt model performs well in predicting the distribution of L. consocia, with an AUC value of 0.913. The annual precipitation (Bio12), the precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), the temperature annual range (Bio7), and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) are key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of L. consocia. Under current climate conditions, L. consocia has a highly suitable growth area of 2243 km[2] in China, among which Taiwan has the largest high-suitable area with a total area of 1450 km[2]. With climate warming, the potential habitat area for L. consocia shows an overall decreasing trend in future. This work provides a scientific basis for research on pest control and ecological protection. A "graded response" detection and early warning system, as well as prevention and control strategies, can be developed for potentially suitable areas to effectively address this pest challenge.}, }
@article {pmid39452112, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, Y and Yang, H and Jiamahate, A and Yang, H and Cao, L and Dang, Y and Lu, Z and Yang, Z and Bozorov, TA and Wang, X}, title = {Potential Ecological Distribution of the Beetle Agrilus mali Matsumura (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in China under Three Climate Change Scenarios, with Consequences for Commercial and Wild Apple Forests.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {39452112}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2022B03020//the Key Research and Development Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region/ ; 2016YFC0501503-1-1//the National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 201404403//the Special Fund for Forest Scientific Research in the Public Welfare/ ; }, abstract = {The apple jewel beetle (AJB), Agrilus mali Matsumura (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is a dangerous pest of commercial apple orchards across China, the largest apple production country in the world, and has recently become invasive in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) of northwestern China, where wild apple forests also occur. This pest poses a serious threat to apple production and wild apple forests throughout the world. Global warming is expected to change the geographical distribution of A. mali in China, but the extent of this is unknown. Based on empirical data from 1951 to 2000, a MaxEnt model was used to forecast the ecological distribution of A. mali under three different climate scenarios projected in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results showed that the most important variables were the maximum temperature of November, precipitation in January, and minimum temperatures in April. Under all climate scenarios, the forecasted suitable regions for A. mali in China will expand northward in the 2050s and 2070s. The forecasted highly suitable regions will be 1.11-1.34 times larger than they are currently, and their central distributions will be 61.57-167.59 km further north. These findings suggest that the range and damage caused by A. mali in China will increase dramatically in the future. Monitoring and management measures should be implemented urgently to protect both the commercial apple industry and wild apple resources.}, }
@article {pmid39451084, year = {2024}, author = {Roucka, TM}, title = {Dentistry's ethical responsibility to patients' overall health through sustainable practices and climate change awareness.}, journal = {General dentistry}, volume = {72}, number = {6}, pages = {17-19}, pmid = {39451084}, issn = {0363-6771}, }
@article {pmid39451046, year = {2024}, author = {Atta, MHR and El-Sayed, AAI and Taleb, F and Elsayed, SM and Al Shurafi, SO and Altaheri, A and Abdu Almoliky, M and Asal, MGR}, title = {The Climate-Asthma Connection: Examining the Influence of Climate Change Anxiety on Asthma Control and Quality of Life: A Multi-National Study.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jan.16513}, pmid = {39451046}, issn = {1365-2648}, support = {PSAU/2024/R/1445//Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University/ ; }, abstract = {AIMS: This study aims to identify the impact of climate change anxiety and asthma control on asthmatics' quality of life and examine the moderating role of climate change anxiety in this linkage.<br><br>METHOD: A multi-national cross-sectional study was conducted in four Arabian countries on 1266 asthmatics selected by convenience sampling. Data were collected from November 2023 to February 2024 using a climate anxiety scale, mini-asthma quality of life questionnaire, and an asthma control questionnaire.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate anxiety was higher among middle-aged participants, as well as those with longer disease durations and previous hospitalisations. Climate anxiety showed strong negative correlations with asthma control (r&#x2009;=&#x2009;-0.704, p&#x2009;&#x2264;&#x2009;0.05) and asthma quality of life (r&#x2009;=&#x2009;- 0.638, p&#x2009;&#x2264;&#x2009;0.05). Climate anxiety and asthma control are powerful predictors of quality of life among asthmatics. Climate anxiety moderates the relationship between asthma control and quality of life, making it less positive (B&#x2009;=&#x2009;-0.094, p&#x2009;>&#x2009;0.001). Covariates such as gender, age, comorbidities, employment status, disease duration, and previous hospitalisation showed significant associations with asthma quality of life.<br><br>Assessment and mitigation of climate anxiety among asthmatics is a key strategy for controlling asthma and improving the quality of life. So, nurses must incorporate climate anxiety assessment into the care plan for asthmatics.<br><br>IMPACT: Climate change is a global concern, and insights into how climate-related psychological stressors exacerbate asthma symptoms and overall health outcomes are necessary. The findings provide actionable data for healthcare professionals to underscore the need for integrated healthcare approaches considering environmental and psychological factors.<br><br>REPORTING METHOD: This study adheres to strengthening the reporting of observational studies in epidemiology (STROBE) statement.<br><br>Clients with asthma across multiple nationalities actively contributed to our paper.}, }
@article {pmid39450078, year = {2024}, author = {Plantevin, M and Merpault, Y and Lecourt, J and Destrac-Irvine, A and Dijsktra, L and van Leeuwen, C}, title = {Characterization of varietal effects on the acidity and pH of grape berries for selection of varieties better adapted to climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1439114}, pmid = {39450078}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change is drastically modifying berry composition and wine quality across the world. Most wine regions with a history of winemaking are suffering from a loss of typicity and terroir expression because of climate change impact on berry components at harvest, including wine acidity, with total acidity decreasing and pH increasing. Such changes can have a major impact on wine stability and quality. One important option for adaptation is the selection of grapevine varieties better adapted to warmer and drier conditions. Weekly measurement of tartaric acid, malic acid, pH and titratable acidity from veraison until maturity were carried out on 51 varieties over seven years in two experimental plots. Varietal differences were shown for the rate of malic acid degradation during the ripening period, with some varieties metabolizing malic acid faster per unit of thermal time than others. Some varietal differences were also noticed regarding tartaric acid modulation, which can occur under exceptionally high temperatures. Differences in the dynamics of pH evolution in grape must over the growing season were evaluated and varieties characterized with regard to organic acids (tartaric acid and malic acid), inorganic compounds (cations) as well as pH levels and stability. This multi-trait approach allows the selection of grapevine varieties based on parameters linked to their acidity, which is of particular importance in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39449446, year = {2024}, author = {Portela Dos Santos, O and Perruchoud, &#xc9; and Pereira, F and Alves, P and Verloo, H}, title = {Measuring Nurses' Knowledge and Awareness of Climate Change and Climate-Associated Diseases: Systematic Review of Existing Instruments.}, journal = {Nursing reports (Pavia, Italy)}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {2850-2876}, pmid = {39449446}, issn = {2039-4403}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: As early as 1995, the Institute of Medicine suggested that nurses were inadequately prepared for and educated about climate change and its health consequences. The aim of this systematic review is to identify the most reliable, robust, and valid instruments for measuring nurses' knowledge and awareness of climate change and climate-associated diseases.<br><br>METHODS: Included studies were appraised using the Mixed-Methods Appraisal Tool and the Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies. The psychometrics and clinimetrics of the instruments were evaluated using the COSMIN Risk of Bias checklist and the COSMIN methodology for assessing content validity.<br><br>RESULTS: Medline, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL Ebesco, Cochrane Library Wiley, Web of Science Core Collection, Trip Database, JBI OVID SP, GreenFILE EBSCO, Google Scholar, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global, and DART-EU were consulted. The 14 studies retained identified eight different instruments evaluating attitudes, perceptions, environmental awareness, environmental sensitivity, environmental attitudes, behaviours, motivation, concern, optimism, and experience. This review is reported according to the PRISMA guidelines.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The New Ecological Paradigm Scale (NEPS) and the Climate, Health, and Nursing Tool (CHANT) are the most reliable, robust, and valid instruments for measuring nurses' knowledge and awareness of climate change and climate-associated diseases.}, }
@article {pmid39448839, year = {2024}, author = {Cael, BB and Bisson, K and Boss, E and Dutkiewicz, S and Henson, S}, title = {Author Correction: Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-024-08090-9}, pmid = {39448839}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39448075, year = {2024}, author = {Roveri, G and Crespi, A and Eisendle, F and Rauch, S and Corradini, P and Steger, S and Zebisch, M and Strapazzon, G}, title = {Climate change and human health in Alpine environments: an interdisciplinary impact chain approach understanding today's risks to address tomorrow's challenges.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014431}, pmid = {39448075}, issn = {2059-7908}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Altitude ; Europe ; }, abstract = {The European Alps, home to a blend of permanent residents and millions of annual tourists, are found to be particularly sensitive to climate change. This article employs the impact chain concept to explore the interplay between climate change and health in Alpine areas, offering an interdisciplinary assessment of current and future health consequences and potential adaptation strategies.Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and increasing extreme weather events have profound implications for the Alpine regions. Temperatures have risen significantly over the past century, with projections indicating further increases and more frequent heatwaves. These trends increase the risk of heat-related health issues especially for vulnerable groups, including the elderly, frail individuals, children and recreationists. Furthermore, changing precipitation patterns, glacier retreat and permafrost melting adversely impact slope stability increasing the risk of gravity-driven natural hazards like landslides, avalanches and rockfalls. This poses direct threats, elevates the risk of multi-casualty incidents and strains search and rescue teams.The environmental changes also impact Alpine flora and fauna, altering the distribution and transmission of vector-borne diseases. Such events directly impact healthcare administration and management programmes, which are already challenged by surges in tourism and ensuring access to care.In conclusion, Alpine regions must proactively address these climate change-related health risks through an interdisciplinary approach, considering both preventive and responsive adaptation strategies, which we describe in this article.}, }
@article {pmid39446240, year = {2024}, author = {Kar, G and Singh, AK and Datta, D}, title = {Potential impact of climate change on water productivity and water footprints of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic plains of India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {11}, pages = {1101}, pmid = {39446240}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {India ; *Climate Change ; *Oryza/growth &amp; development ; *Triticum/growth &amp; development ; *Agriculture ; *Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Environmental Monitoring ; Water ; }, abstract = {Agriculture faces a significant problem as a result of the decline in per capita freshwater supply that has been observed over the past couple of decades. Better water management strategies are required in order to make agriculture water secure, environmentally sustainable, and economically attractive. The goal of this study was to develop water productivity scenarios for rice and wheat crops in India's Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) by analysing agricultural production from the perspective of water consumption. To pinpoint the areas that are hydrologically suitable for growing rice and wheat crops under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, water footprints and water productivity have been mapped. The study found that changes in temperature trends under future climate scenarios are probably going to increase crop water requirements, leading to greater water footprints for IGP regions. Water risk hotspots have been identified in the IGP for the rice- and wheat-growing states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana. In order to achieve food security in a sustainable way, attention should be given to increase the water productivity of both crops.}, }
@article {pmid39444644, year = {2024}, author = {Do, V and Parks, RM and Casey, JA and Goin, DE and Kioumourtzoglou, MA}, title = {Use, limitations, and future directions of mixtures approaches to understand the health impacts of weather- and climate change-related exposures, an under-studied aspect of the exposome.}, journal = {Exposome}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {osae007}, pmid = {39444644}, issn = {2635-2265}, abstract = {The exposome concept aims to account for the comprehensive and cumulative effects of physical, chemical, biological, and psychosocial influences on biological systems. To date, limited exposome research has explicitly included climate change-related exposures. We define these exposures as those that will intensify with climate change, including direct effects like extreme heat, tropical cyclones, wildfires, downstream effects like air pollution, power outages, and limited or contaminated food and water supplies. These climate change-related exposures can occur individually or simultaneously. Here, we discuss the concept of a climate mixture, defined as three or more simultaneous climate change-related exposures, in the context of the exposome. In a motivating climate mixture example, we consider the impact of a co-occurring tropical cyclone, power outage, and flooding on respiratory hospitalizations. We identify current gaps and future directions for assessing the effect of climate mixtures on health. Mixtures methods allow us to incorporate climate mixtures into exposomics.}, }
@article {pmid39442400, year = {2024}, author = {Kreibich, J and Bino, G and Zheng, H and Chiew, F and Glamore, W and Woods, J and Kingsford, RT}, title = {River regulation and climate change reduce river flows to major Australian floodplain wetland.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {122962}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122962}, pmid = {39442400}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Freshwater ecosystems, including rivers and floodplain wetlands, face severe stress from unsustainable water resources development, with climate change exerting further pressure. This study compares the relative effects of river regulation and projected climate change on river flows to the semi-arid Lowbidgee Floodplain (3250 km[2]), the largest wetland ecosystem on the heavily regulated Murrumbidgee River, Australia's second longest river, within the Murray-Darling Basin. We modelled annual natural streamflow in the lower Murrumbidgee River before major dam constructions and water diversions (1890-1927), linking river flows to runoff from the upper Murrumbidgee catchment. Extending this analysis to the full rainfall-runoff dataset (1890-2018), we compared modelled natural flows to observed river flows affected by dams and water withdrawals. Additionally, we modelled climate change impacts on river discharge and overbank flows, which reduced inundation of riparian habitats. Current river regulation has reduced median annual streamflow by 43% from 2565 × 10[6] m[3] to 1490 × 10[6] m[3] during 1958-2018, relative to modelled natural flows, with a more pronounced 55% reduction in the last three decades (1988-2018). The return period of major overbank flows, essential for river-floodplain habitat connectivity, more than doubled from once every 2.0 years to once every 4.4 years (1916-2018). Mean climate change projections indicated an additional 7-10% decrease in median annual streamflow by 2047-2075, relative to 1977-2005. The annual duration of major floods declined from an average of 11.3 days under natural flow conditions to 4.5 days under the current regulated river flow regime, with a further reduction to 1.6-1.8 days (83-85% decrease) projected by 2047-2075, due to climate change. We recommend prioritising mitigation of river regulation effects, as these pose the most immediate threats to riverine ecosystems, including their native biodiversity, in the Murrumbidgee River catchment. Our 'natural flow' model offers critical insights for shaping environmental policy and managing environmental flows to mimic natural flow regimes, supporting the conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems, like the Lowbidgee Floodplain wetlands. Our approach is transferable to other large river systems globally, using available or modelled streamflow data.}, }
@article {pmid39442399, year = {2024}, author = {Eva, EA and Marzen, LJ and Lamba, J and Ahsanullah, SM and Mitra, C}, title = {Projection of land use and land cover changes based on land change modeler and integrating both land use land cover and climate change on the hydrological response of Big Creek Lake Watershed, South Alabama.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {122923}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122923}, pmid = {39442399}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Changing land use/land cover (LULC) and climate substantially affect the hydrological components of a watershed. This study explored the future impact of the hydrological responses due to the changing LULC and climate on the Big Creek Lake watershed in Alabama, USA, from 2021 to 2050 using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Five climate model datasets were used under the moderate scenario (Representative Concentrative Pathways 4.5) and the extreme scenario (Representative Concentrative Pathways 8.5), and the datasets were downscaled and bias-corrected. In addition, changing the LULC of five categories was predicted by Cellular Automata Markov (CA- Markov). With these data combined with the elevation (Digital Elevation Model), soils, and weather data, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the studied watershed to quantify how climate change will affect streamflow, nitrogen, and phosphorus. Our results indicate streamflow will increase due to the 50-acre increase in urban LULC. As streamflow increases, the percolation, surface runoff, lateral flow, groundwater flow, and water yield will also increase because the streamflow impacts these hydrological components. Moreover, the increase rate in streamflow is the same for all the components for January, February, and March. Therefore, there is a strong correlation between these months. On the contrary, evaporation will be high in May, June, and July because of the increasing temperature and streamflow. However, the changes in the water hydrological parameters and total nitrogen and phosphorus will be more intense in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5.}, }
@article {pmid39442151, year = {2024}, author = {Souza, IL and Cuzzuol, GRF and Meneses, LFT}, title = {Ecophysiological responses of bromelias in the restinga in simulated climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {84}, number = {}, pages = {e285000}, doi = {10.1590/1519-6984.285000}, pmid = {39442151}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Bromeliaceae/physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Bromelia/physiology ; }, abstract = {We investigated the ecophysiological responses of the bromeliads Aechmea nudicaulis and Vriesea procera, seeking to assess their suitability to survive in a climate change scenario (optimistic scenario RCP 2.6 of the IPCC, 2021) in a Restinga environment. To carry out this investigation, we used open-top chambers (OTC). During a period of nine months (June 2022 to February 2023), the bromeliads A. nudicaulis and V. procera were subjected to the following treatments: treatment T: plants transplanted to the environmental conditions of the bare sand of the restinga and subjected to the microclimatic conditions of the OTC's; control C: plants transplanted to the environmental conditions of the bare sand of the restinga. The ecophysiological variables height, rosette diameter, relative water content, specific leaf area and total weight of the plants were evaluated. In addition, dead plants were counted. The OTC's showed an average increase in temperature and VPD (Vapor Pressure Deficit) of 1.6°C and 0.5 Kpa, respectively, and an average reduction in RH (relative humidity) of 5.3%. The results of this study indicated that the increase in local temperature that occurred between the sixth and seventh months evaluated (November and December) created limiting conditions that exceeded the tolerance capacity of the bromeliads studied. Furthermore, the climatic conditions of the OTCs intensified the damage that occurred in the plants, verified here by the reductions in the values of the ecophysiological attributes evaluated in the bromeliads studied. In addition, the high mortality rate (above 50%) reinforces the idea that the climatic conditions of the OTC's induced the bromeliads studied to a senescence process. Therefore, these results are important, as they indicate that even the most optimistic climate change scenario (IPCC 2021 RCP 2.6) can harm the growth and development of these bromeliads, which are essential for the structure and functioning of Restinga communities.}, }
@article {pmid39440447, year = {2024}, author = {Amin, SM and El-Monshed, AH and Khedr, MA and Awad, AGE and Atta, MHR}, title = {The Association between Emotional Responses to Climate Change, Antenatal Anxiety and Maternal-Fetal Attachment in Primigravida Women.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jan.16549}, pmid = {39440447}, issn = {1365-2648}, abstract = {AIM: To investigate the association between emotional responses to climate change, antenatal anxiety, and maternal-fetal attachment in primigravida women.<br><br>DESIGN: A multi-site cross-sectional research design study.<br><br>METHODS: This study was conducted at four primary health care (PHC) facilities in Damanhur district, El-Behera, from February 2024 to April 2024. Two hundred eighty-five women completed a comprehensive questionnaire that included a Woman's Social and Reproductive Form, The inventory of climate emotions (ICE) scale, The Stirling Antenatal Anxiety Scale (SAAS) and the Maternal-Fetal Attachment Scale (MFAS-HU-20).<br><br>RESULTS: The study revealed that emotional responses to climate change show strong positive correlations with each other, ranging from 0.689 to 0.840, all significant at p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001 level. Additionally, antenatal anxiety demonstrates substantial positive correlations with emotional responses to climate change, albeit with associations ranging from 0.239 to 0.287, all significant at p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001 level. Moreover, maternal-fetal attachment displays substantial negative correlations with emotional responses to climate change, indicating that as emotional responses to climate change increase, maternal-fetal attachment tends to decrease. The correlations range from -0.263 to -0.426, all significant at p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The emotional impact of climate change can adversely affect the bonding process between mother and fetus.<br><br>Healthcare professionals, including obstetricians, midwives, and mental health counsellors, should integrate climate-related emotional distress into their assessments and interventions. Providing targeted psychological support for expectant mothers.<br><br>IMPACT: The study's findings highlight the need for nursing to integrate climate-related emotional distress screening into prenatal care and for research to explore long-term effects and intervention effectiveness. In practice, healthcare providers should adopt holistic approaches that combine environmental and psychological support, developing comprehensive guidelines and community-based programs to support pregnant women.<br><br>REPORTING METHOD: The research adhered to that is STROBE.<br><br>Public contributions by women in community health centers.}, }
@article {pmid39440138, year = {2024}, author = {Frazão Santos, C and Agardy, T and Crowder, LB and Day, JC and Himes-Cornell, A and Pinsky, ML and Reimer, JM and Gissi, E}, title = {Ocean Planning and Conservation in the Age of Climate Change: A Roundtable Discussion.}, journal = {Integrative organismal biology (Oxford, England)}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {obae037}, pmid = {39440138}, issn = {2517-4843}, abstract = {Over recent years, recognition of the need to develop climate-smart marine spatial planning (MSP) has gained momentum globally. In this roundtable discussion, we use a question-and-answer format to leverage diverse perspectives and voices involved in the study of sustainable MSP and marine conservation under global environmental and social change. We intend this dialogue to serve as a stepping stone toward developing ocean planning initiatives that are sustainable, equitable, and climate-resilient around the globe.}, }
@article {pmid39440125, year = {2024}, author = {Macinnis-Ng, C and Ziedins, I and Ajmal, H and Baisden, WT and Hendy, S and McDonald, A and Priestley, R and Salmon, RA and Sharp, EL and Tonkin, JD and Velarde, S and Watene Ngāti Manu Te Hikutu Ngāti Whātua Ōrākei Tonga, K and Godsoe, W}, title = {Climate change impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand: a horizon scan approach.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {523-546}, pmid = {39440125}, issn = {1175-8899}, abstract = {Many of the implications of climate change for Aotearoa (New Zealand) remain unclear. To identify so-far unseen or understudied threats and opportunities related to climate change we applied a horizon-scanning process. First, we collated 171 threats and opportunities across our diverse fields of research. We then scored each item for novelty and potential impact and finally reduced the list to ten threats and ten opportunities through a prioritisation process. Within the 20 items presented in this paper, we uncover a range of climate-related costs and benefits. Unexpected opportunities evolve from economic reorganisation and changes to perspectives. The threats we highlight include the overall failure to interconnect siloed policy responses, as well as those relating to extreme events and feedbacks, as well as pressures that undermine the coherence of society. A major theme of our work is that climate change effects in Aotearoa are likely to transgress the boundaries of research disciplines, industry sectors and policy systems, emphasising the importance of developing transdisciplinary methods and approaches. We use this insight to connect potential responses to climate change with Aotearoa's culture and geography.}, }
@article {pmid39440124, year = {2024}, author = {Milfont, TL and Athy, AE and Sibley, CG}, title = {Climate change profiles of New Zealanders over time: a one-year latent transition analysis of climate change beliefs and concern.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {395-411}, pmid = {39440124}, issn = {1175-8899}, abstract = {Scientific evidence unequivocally shows that human activities cause climate change, but some people still deny it. Using New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study data from 2018 and 2019 (N = 34,733), we examined segmentation profiles regarding beliefs and concern about climate change ('Climate change is real', 'Climate change is caused by humans', 'I am deeply concerned about climate change'), the probabilities of transitioning to and from profiles over time, and the characteristics of individuals in each profile. Five profiles were identified with varying levels of climate change beliefs and concern. The largest profile (60.4% of respondents) had the highest levels of climate change beliefs and concern, while the smallest profile (3.7% of respondents) had the lowest. Over time, more people moved from profiles of lower into profiles of higher levels of climate change beliefs and concern. The profile with the highest levels was the most stable, with members having an 82.7% chance of staying in this profile over time. Compared to this group, members of the profile with the lowest levels of climate change beliefs and concern were more likely to be male, New Zealand European, parents, religious, and to endorse conservative and system-justifying ideologies. We discuss the implications of the findings.}, }
@article {pmid39440121, year = {2024}, author = {Lawrence, J and Wreford, A and Blackett, P and Hall, D and Woodward, A and Awatere, S and Livingston, ME and Macinnis-Ng, C and Walker, S and Fountain, J and Costello, MJ and Ausseil, AE and Watt, MS and Dean, SM and Cradock-Henry, NA and Zammit, C and Milfont, TL}, title = {Climate change adaptation through an integrative lens in Aotearoa New Zealand.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {491-522}, pmid = {39440121}, issn = {1175-8899}, abstract = {Climate change is being felt across all human and natural systems in Aotearoa New Zealand and is projected to worsen this decade as impacts compound and cascade through natural system and sectoral dependencies. The effectiveness of adaptation is constrained by how fast greenhouse gas emissions are reduced globally, the pace of change, the frequency and progression of impacts, and the capacity of our natural, societal and political systems to respond. We explore how these systems and sectors interact with existing and projected climate change stressors by categorising climate change impacts (Trends and Events) and consequential thresholds (Thresholds), and by grouping systems and sectors by types (Typologies). This approach has identified commonalities and differences between the typologies which are illustrated with examples. Critical constraints and opportunities for adaptation have been identified to guide sector adaptation decision-making and for ongoing adaptation progress and effectiveness monitoring. Constraints are found across all sectors, and opportunities exist to address them through modelling and projections, monitoring frameworks, decision tools and measures, governance coordination and integration of the Māori worldview of the relationship between humans and nature. However, limits to adaptation exist and will increase over time unless all sectors and all nations urgently reduce their emissions.}, }
@article {pmid39440126, year = {2024}, author = {Villamor, GB and Wakelin, SJ and Clinton, PW}, title = {Climate change, risk perceptions and barriers to adaptation among forest growers in New Zealand.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {433-448}, pmid = {39440126}, issn = {1175-8899}, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant challenge for forest growers. However, understanding climate change adaptation including the behaviour and decisions of forest growers remains unexplored in New Zealand, despite the forestry sector being a significant export leader and major contributor to regional economies. To explore this, we conducted surveys of 60 forest growers from organisations which collectively manage more than 70% of New Zealand's plantation forests. The results showed that 47% of the respondents perceived that climate change will affect their forest growing, and 60% perceived that climate change will increase wildfire frequency and pest and disease outbreaks. Only 21% of the respondents reported that they had taken adaptation measures directly. Lack of resources and motivation were among the barriers that respondents identified. A logistic regression analysis revealed that climate change perception, research to improve forest growers' adaptive capacity, climate change information, forest grower age and forestry experience are significantly associated with actual adaptation decisions. Risk perceptions central to protection motivation theory (e.g. vulnerability, probability and severity) were not linked to actual adaptation decisions, suggesting that widening adaptation analyses beyond individual perceptions as predictors of climate change adaptation may provide insights for fit-for-purpose climate change adaptation policies for the sector.}, }
@article {pmid39440105, year = {2024}, author = {Kaltsatou, A and Foster, J and Ikäheimo, TM}, title = {Editorial: Climate change and cardiovascular health.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1497232}, pmid = {39440105}, issn = {1664-042X}, }
@article {pmid39438576, year = {2024}, author = {Bolinesi, F and Rossetti, E and Mangoni, O}, title = {Author Correction: Phytoplankton dynamics in a shellfish farming lagoon in a deltaic system threatened by ongoing climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {24860}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-024-76161-y}, pmid = {39438576}, issn = {2045-2322}, }
@article {pmid39438071, year = {2024}, author = {Mariën, J and Mukomena, E and Tevuzula, VM and Leirs, H and Huyse, T}, title = {A century of medical records reveal earlier onset of the malaria season in Haut-Katanga induced by climate change.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015375}, pmid = {39438071}, issn = {2059-7908}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Malaria/history/epidemiology/transmission ; Humans ; *Seasons ; Democratic Republic of the Congo/epidemiology ; History, 20th Century ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Despite worldwide efforts to eradicate malaria over the past century, the disease remains a significant challenge in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) today. Climate change is even anticipated to worsen the situation in areas with higher altitudes and vulnerable populations. This study in Haut-Katanga, a highland region, aims to evaluate the effectiveness of past control measures and to explore the impact of climate change on the region's distinct seasonal malaria pattern throughout the last century.<br><br>METHODS: We integrated colonial medical records (1917-1983) from two major mining companies (Union Mini&#xe8;re du Haut-Katanga and the G&#xe9;n&#xe9;rale des Carri&#xe8;res et des Mines) with contemporary data (2003-2020) from Lubumbashi. Concurrently, we combined colonial climate records (1912-1946) with recent data from satellite images and weather stations (1940-2023). We used Generalised Additive Models to link the two data sources and to test for changing seasonal patterns in transmission.<br><br>RESULTS: Malaria transmission in Haut-Katanga has fluctuated significantly over the past century, influenced by evolving control strategies, political conditions and a changing climate. A notable decrease in cases followed the introduction of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), while a surge occurred after the civil wars ended at the beginning of the new millennium. Recently, the malaria season began 1-2 months earlier than historically observed, likely due to a 2-5&#xb0;C increase in mean minimum temperatures, which facilitates the sporogonic cycle of the parasite.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Despite contemporary control efforts, malaria incidence in Haut-Katanga is similar to levels observed in the 1930s, possibly influenced by climate change creating optimal conditions for malaria transmission. Our historical data shows that the lowest malaria incidence occurred during periods of intensive DDT use and indoor residual spraying. Consequently, we recommend the systematic reduction of vector populations as a key component of malaria control strategies in highland regions of sub-Saharan Africa.}, }
@article {pmid39436735, year = {2024}, author = {Schattman, RE and Merrill, SC and Tracy, WF}, title = {Shifts in geographic vulnerability of US corn crops under different climate change scenarios: corn flea beetle (Chaetocnema pulicaria) and Stewart's Wilt (Pantoea stewartii) bacterium.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/ee/nvae099}, pmid = {39436735}, issn = {1938-2936}, support = {ME0-022332//USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; }, abstract = {Changing climate patterns will likely affect insect pressure on many agricultural crops. Mild winters may decrease the number of insects that experience reduced fecundity or that are killed during hard freezes. This may result in larger populations in subsequent years and allow for range expansion. Direct effects from pests are compounded by indirect effects, such as crop damage resulting from insect-vectored diseases. Corn flea beetle (Chaetocnema pulicaria) infestations have both direct and indirect effects on crops. This beetle is a pest on all types of corn in the United States, including sweet corn and grain corn (sometimes referred to as dent corn). It is responsible for damage to plant foliage and also serves as the primary overwintering vector for Pantoea stewartii bacterium, which causes Stewart's Wilt, a disease that can severely impact the health and productivity of corn. Evidence suggests that warmer winters will contribute to a geographic range expansion for the corn flea beetle. Here we show the projected northward expansion of economically damaging crop losses caused by Stewart's Wilt: (A) from 1980 to 2011, (B) projected by mid-century, and (C) projected by end-century. Our work suggests that climate change and associated increasing winter temperatures in the United States will lead to a dramatic increase in the probability of severe damage from corn flea beetle across the United States, including the Corn Belt. Predicted increases in pest and disease pressure will have negative ramifications for corn production and are likely to exacerbate issues associated with specific management tactics, such as pesticide application.}, }
@article {pmid39435550, year = {2024}, author = {Rodrigues, T and Kratina, P and Setubal, RB and Ferro, JLS and Hideki Abe, D and Costa, LO and Casa Nova, C and Farjalla, VF and Pires, APF}, title = {Interaction Between Climate Change Scenarios and Biological Invasion Reveals Complex Cascading Effects in Freshwater Ecosystems.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {e17540}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17540}, pmid = {39435550}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {E-26/201.454/2022//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro/ ; E-26/210.070/2024//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro/ ; E-26/210.164/2019//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro/ ; E-26/211.988/2021//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro/ ; 88887.815076/2023-00//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; 88887.892174/2023-00//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; 310119/2018-9//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 423057/2021-9//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 008/2021//Fundo Brasileiro para a Biodiversidade/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; *Biomass ; *Ecosystem ; *Fresh Water ; Animals ; *Invertebrates/physiology ; Zooplankton/physiology ; Food Chain ; }, abstract = {Climate change often facilitates biological invasions, leading to potential interactive impacts of these global drivers on freshwater ecosystems. Although climatic mitigation efforts may reduce the magnitude of these interactive impacts, we are still missing experimental evidence for such effects under multiple climate change scenarios within a multi-trophic framework. To address this knowledge gap, we experimentally compared the independent and interactive effects of two climate change scenarios (mitigation and business-as-usual) and biological invasion on the biomass of major freshwater trophic groups (phytoplankton, zooplankton, periphyton, macroinvertebrates, and a native macrophyte) and the decomposition rate of allochthonous material. Among the independent effects, we found that the business-as-usual climate treatment resulted in lower native macrophyte biomass and higher periphyton biomass compared to the climatic baseline and mitigation treatments. This indicates the potential of climate change to alter the relative dominance of different freshwater producers and demonstrates that climate mitigation efforts can counteract these effects. Biological invasion alone increased the biomass of chironomids, a dominant macroinvertebrate group in tropical freshwater ecosystems, demonstrating a compensatory effect on climate change. Climate change and biological invasion interactively reduced the decomposition rate of allochthonous detritus, likely mediated by the feeding preference of abundant chironomids for periphytic algae associated with the presence of non-native macrophytes. We concluded that (i) climatic mitigation can maintain climate baseline conditions in freshwater ecosystems, and (ii) the interactive effects between future climate scenarios and biological invasion are related to complex cascading interactions among trophic groups on ecosystem processes.}, }
@article {pmid39435398, year = {2024}, author = {Pitron, V and Witthöft, M and Lemogne, C and Léger, D and Clayton, S and Van den Bergh, O}, title = {How climate-change awareness can provoke physical symptoms.}, journal = {Frontiers in ecology and the environment}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {e2700}, pmid = {39435398}, issn = {1540-9295}, }
@article {pmid39435161, year = {2024}, author = {Kumar, P and Jayan, J and Jena, D and Rai, N and Sah, S and Mawejje, E}, title = {Valley fever on the rise: How climate change is fueling a public health crisis.}, journal = {New microbes and new infections}, volume = {62}, number = {}, pages = {101500}, pmid = {39435161}, issn = {2052-2975}, }
@article {pmid39434844, year = {2024}, author = {Theriot, MK and Olson, LE and Lanier, HC}, title = {Accounting for age: uncovering the nuanced drivers of mammal body-size responses to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of mammalogy}, volume = {105}, number = {3}, pages = {512-523}, pmid = {39434844}, issn = {0022-2372}, abstract = {Shifts in mean body size coinciding with environmental change are well documented across animal species and populations, serving as a widespread and complex indicator of climate-change response. In mammal research, identifying and disentangling the potential drivers of these trends (e.g., thermoregulation, resource availability) is hindered by treating adult size as fixed, ignoring morphological changes that occur throughout life in many species. However, observed population-level size trends may reflect underlying shifts in age structure (i.e., change in the proportion of older, potentially larger individuals in the population). Here, we assessed the role of age structure by explicitly evaluating age as a contributor to temporal variation in skull size (a proxy for body size) in 2 carnivorans, Canadian Lynx (Lynx canadensis) and American Marten (Martes americana). Using a series of linear and nonlinear models, we tested age in years (determined by cementum-layer analysis) as a predictor of skull size alongside other factors previously proposed to be important drivers of body-size trends, including population density for lynx and growing season conditions for martens. In both species, age was a significant predictor of skull size indicating a rapid year-to-year increase in young adult size that diminished in later adulthood. However, temporal shifts in age structure alone did not explain the observed changes in size over time, indicating that age structure acts in concert with other as-yet unidentified factors to drive body-size change. By explicitly evaluating the role of age, we can both refine models of temporal body-size trends and gain insights into size change as a signal of underlying demographic shifts-such as age-specific survivorship-providing a more holistic understanding of how mammals are responding to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39434407, year = {2024}, author = {Kusmec, A and Schnable, PS}, title = {Phenological Adaptation Is Insufficient to Offset Climate Change-Induced Yield Losses in US Hybrid Maize.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {e17539}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17539}, pmid = {39434407}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {IOW04714//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; 2017-67007-26175//USDA Agriculture and Food Research Initiative/ ; IOS-1842097//Division of Integrative Organismal Systems/ ; }, mesh = {*Zea mays/growth &amp; development/genetics/physiology ; *Climate Change ; United States ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/genetics ; Seasons ; Climate Models ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is projected to decrease maize yields due to warmer temperatures and their consequences. Studies using crop growth models (CGMs), however, have predicted that, through a combination of alterations to planting date, flowering time, and maturity, these yield losses can be mitigated or even reversed. Here, we examine three assumptions of such studies: (1) that climate has driven historical phenological trends, (2) that CGM ensembles provide unbiased estimates of yields under high temperatures, and (3) that the effects of temperature on yields are an emergent property of interactions between phenology and environment. We used data on maize phenology from the United States Department of Agriculture, a statistical model of maize hybrid heat tolerance derived from 80 years of public yield trial records across four US states, and outputs of an ensemble of CMIP6 climate models. While planting dates have advanced historically, we found a trend toward later planting dates after 2005 and no trend for silking or maturity, shifting more time into the reproductive period. We then projected maize yields using the historical model and crop calendars devised using three previously proposed adaptation strategies. In contrast to studies using CGMs, our statistical yield model projected severe yield losses under all three strategies. Finally, we projected maize yields accounting for historical genetic variability for heat tolerance, discovering that it was insufficient to overcome the negative effects of projected warming. These projections are driven by greater heat stress exposure under all crop calendars and climate scenarios. Combined with analysis of the internal sensitivities of CGMs to temperature, our results suggest that current projections do not adequately account for the effects of increasing temperatures on maize yields. Climate adaptation in the US Midwest must utilize a richer set of strategies than phenological adaptation, including improvements to heat tolerance and crop diversification.}, }
@article {pmid39434158, year = {2024}, author = {Cuervo, PF and Bargues, MD and Artigas, P and Buchon, P and Angles, R and Mas-Coma, S}, title = {Global warming induced spread of the highest human fascioliasis hyperendemic area.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {434}, pmid = {39434158}, issn = {1756-3305}, support = {101062347//Marie Sk&#x142;odowska-Curie Actions programme (Project RCN 242718, Horizon Europe, EC, Brussels)/ ; CIAPOS/2021/134//APOSTD/2022 (Generalitat Valenciana and European Social Fund)/ ; CB21/13/00056//CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas, ISCIII, Ministry of Science and Education, Madrid, Spain/ ; RD16/0027/0023//Red de Investigaci&#xf3;n de Centros de Enfermedades Tropicales -RICET- (ISCIII-Subdirecci&#xf3;n General de Redes y Centros de Investigaci&#xf3;n Cooperativa RETICS, Ministry of Health and Consumption, Madrid)/ ; 2016/099//PROMETEO Program, Programa of Ayudas para Grupos de Investigaci&#xf3;n de Excelencia, Generalitat Valenciana, Valencia, Spain/ ; PI16/00520//Health Research Project, Subprograma Estatal de Generaci&#xf3;n de Conocimiento de la Acci&#xf3;n Estrat&#xe9;gica en Salud (AES) y Fondos FEDER, Plan Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n Cient&#xed;fica y T&#xe9;cnica y de Innovaci&#xf3;n, ISCIII-MINECO, Madrid, Spain/ ; }, mesh = {*Fascioliasis/epidemiology/transmission ; Animals ; Humans ; *Global Warming ; *Endemic Diseases ; *Fasciola hepatica/physiology ; Bolivia/epidemiology ; Temperature ; Climate Change ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is driving the occurrence of several infectious diseases. Within a One Health action to complement the ongoing preventive chemotherapy initiative against human fascioliasis in the Northern Bolivian Altiplano hyperendemic area, field surveys showed a geographical expansion of its lymnaeid snail vector. To assess whether climate change underlies this spread of the infection risk area, an in-depth analysis of the long-term evolution of climatic factors relevant for Fasciola hepatica development was imperative.<br><br>METHODS: We used monthly climatic data covering at least a 30-year period and applied two climatic risk indices, the water-budget-based system and the wet-day index, both of verified usefulness for forecasting fascioliasis transmission in this endemic area. To reveal the long-term trends of the climatic factors and forecast indices, we applied procedures of seasonal-trend decomposition based on locally weighed regression and trend analysis on the basis of linear models. To further demonstrate the changes detected, we depicted selected variables in the form of anomalies.<br><br>RESULTS: This study revealed a notorious climatic change affecting most of the hyperendemic area, with a strong impact on crucial aspects of the fascioliasis transmission. Trends in maximum and mean temperatures show significant increases throughout the endemic area, while trends in minimum temperatures are more variable. Precipitation annual trends are negative in most of the localities. Trends in climatic risk indices show negative trends at lower altitudes or when farther from the eastern Andean chain. However, monthly and yearly values of climatic risk indices indicate a permanent transmission feasibility in almost every location.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Warmer temperatures have enabled lymnaeids to colonize formerly unsuitable higher altitudes, outside the endemicity area verified in the 1990s. Further, drier conditions might lead to an overexploitation of permanent water collections where lymnaeids inhabit, favoring fascioliasis transmission. Therefore, the present preventive chemotherapy by annual mass treatments is in need to widen the area of implementation. This study emphasizes the convenience for continuous monitoring of nearby zones for quick reaction and appropriate action modification.}, }
@article {pmid39434138, year = {2024}, author = {Shrikhande, S and Wolf, J and Vert, C and Egorova, A and Neira, M and Prüss, A}, title = {World Health Organization repository of systematic reviews on interventions in environment, climate change and health: a new resource for decision makers, intervention implementers, and researchers.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {88}, pmid = {39434138}, issn = {1476-069X}, support = {801076//Marie Sk&#x142;odowska-Curie SSPH+ Global PhD Fellowship Programme in Public Health Sciences (GlobalP3HS) of the Swiss School of Public Health/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *World Health Organization ; Decision Making ; Environmental Health ; Databases, Factual ; Review Literature as Topic ; Environment ; }, abstract = {To facilitate the use of the mounting evidence on how human health is inextricably linked to the health of the planet and the urgent need for measures against the escalating triple planetary crisis, the WHO has developed a repository of systematic reviews on interventions in the area of environment, climate change and health (ECH). This commentary introduces the repository, describes its rationale and development, and points to potential future evolutions. The repository aims to provide a user-friendly tool for quickly finding systematic reviews and meta-analyses on specific ECH topics. The spreadsheet includes details on each systematic review, such as population, intervention type, control group, outcomes, and location, among other information. This supports effective assessment of the available evidence, potentially informing policy decisions across various sectors. The repository is a resource for anyone interested in the interlinkages between health and environment and is also targeted at decision makers, intervention implementers and researchers in order to identify priority issues and support evidence-based action. Furthermore, it can be used to identify areas in need of greater research. Additionally, systematic reviews of intervention effectiveness are often used for setting general guidelines and standards, for choosing the most promising intervention in a certain situation and for calculating the disease burden attributable to a specific environmental risk.}, }
@article {pmid39433977, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, J and Nikolaou, N and An der Heiden, M and Irrgang, C}, title = {High-resolution modeling and projection of heat-related mortality in Germany under climate change.}, journal = {Communications medicine}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {206}, pmid = {39433977}, issn = {2730-664X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Heat has become a leading cause of preventable deaths during summer. Understanding the link between high temperatures and excess mortality is crucial for designing effective prevention and adaptation plans. Yet, data analyses are challenging due to often fragmented data archives over different agglomeration levels.<br><br>METHOD: Using Germany as a case study, we develop a multi-scale machine learning model to estimate heat-related mortality with variable temporal and spatial resolution. This approach allows us to estimate heat-related mortality at different scales, such as regional heat risk during a specific heatwave, annual and nationwide heat risk, or future heat risk under climate change&#xa0;scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: We estimate a total of 48,000 heat-related deaths in Germany during the last decade (2014-2023), and the majority of heat-related deaths occur during specific heatwave events. Aggregating our results over larger regions, we reach good agreement with previously published reports from Robert Koch Institute (RKI). In 2023, the heatwave of July 7-14 contributes approximately 1100 cases (28%) to a total of approximately 3900 heat-related deaths for the whole year. Combining our model with shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) of future climate change provides evidence that heat-related mortality in Germany could further increase by a factor of 2.5 (SSP245) to 9 (SSP370) without adaptation to extreme heat under static sociodemographic developments assumptions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our approach is a valuable tool for climate-driven public health strategies, aiding in the identification of local risks during heatwaves and long-term resilience planning.}, }
@article {pmid39434981, year = {2023}, author = {Fei, C and Jägermeyr, J and McCarl, B and Contreras, EM and Mutter, C and Phillips, M and Ruane, AC and Sarofim, MC and Schultz, P and Vargo, A}, title = {Future climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields, production, and market.}, journal = {Anthropocene}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {100386}, pmid = {39434981}, issn = {2213-3054}, abstract = {This study provides estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields and the agricultural economy through the end of the 21st century, utilizing multiple climate scenarios. Results from a process-based crop model project future increases in wheat, grassland, and soybean yield due to climate change and atmospheric CO2 change; corn and sorghum show more muted responses. Results using yields from econometric models show less positive results. Both the econometric and process-based models tend to show more positive yields by the end of the century than several other similar studies. Using the process-based model to provide future yield estimates to an integrated agricultural sector model, the welfare gain is roughly $16B/year (2019 USD) for domestic producers and $6.2B/year for international trade, but domestic consumers lose $10.6B/year, resulting in a total welfare gain of $11.7B/year. When yield projections for major crops are drawn instead from econometric models, total welfare losses of more than $28B/year arise. Simulations using the process-based model as input to the agricultural sector model show large future production increases for soybean, wheat, and sorghum and large price reductions for corn and wheat. The most important factors are those about economic growth, flooding, international trade, and the type of yield model used. Somewhat less, but not insignificant factors include adaptation, livestock productivity, and damages from surface ozone, waterlogging, and pests and diseases.}, }
@article {pmid39433740, year = {2024}, author = {Qie, J and Favillier, A and Liébault, F and Ballesteros Cánovas, JA and Lopez-Saez, J and Guillet, S and Francon, L and Zhong, Y and Stoffel, M and Corona, C}, title = {A supply-limited torrent that does not feel the heat of climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {9078}, pmid = {39433740}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Debris-flow activity in the Alps is anticipated to undergo pronounced changes in response to a warming climate. Yet, a fundamental challenge in comprehensively assessing changes in process activity is the systematic lack of long-term observational debris-flow records. Here, we reconstruct the longest, continuous time series (1626-2020) of debris flows at Multetta, a supply-limited torrential system in the Eastern Swiss Alps. Relying on growth-ring records of trees that were damaged by debris flows, we do not detect significant changes in the frequency or magnitude over time. This seeming absence of a direct climatic influence on debris-flow initiation aligns with the regular distribution of repose time patterns, indicating a dependence of local process activity on sediment discharge and recharge. This stark difference in process behavior between our supply-limited site and transport-limited catchments has implications for assessing torrential hazard and risk mitigation in a context of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid39433545, year = {2024}, author = {Shigetomi, Y and Ishigami, A and Long, Y and Chapman, A}, title = {Curbing household food waste and associated climate change impacts in an ageing society.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {8806}, pmid = {39433545}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {21H03673//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Japan ; *Family Characteristics ; Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Aged ; Food ; Fruit ; Middle Aged ; Vegetables ; Garbage ; Aging ; Sustainable Development ; Young Adult ; Food Loss and Waste ; }, abstract = {We explored the intricate quantitative structure of household food waste and their corresponding life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from raw materials to retail utilizing a combination of household- and food-related economic statistics and life cycle assessment in Japan. Given Japan's status as a nation heavily impacted by an aging population, this study estimates these indicators for the six age brackets of Japanese households, showing that per capita food waste increases as the age of the household head increases (from 16.6 for the 20's and younger group to 46.0 kg/year for 70's and older in 2015) primarily attributed to the propensity of older households purchase of more fruits and vegetables. Further, the largest life cycle greenhouse gases related to food waste was 90.1 kg-CO2eq/year for those in their 60's while the smallest was 39.2 kg-CO2eq/year for 20's and younger. Furthermore, food waste and associated emissions are expected to decline due to future demographic changes imparted by an aging, shrinking population after 2020 until 2040. Specific measures focused on demographic shifts are crucial for Japan and other countries with similar dietary patterns and demographics to achieve related sustainable development goals through suppressing food waste and associated emissions under new dietary regimes.}, }
@article {pmid39433097, year = {2024}, author = {Costopoulou, D and Leondiadis, L and Rose, M}, title = {Climate change influence on the trends of BFRs in the environment and food.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {143578}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2024.143578}, pmid = {39433097}, issn = {1879-1298}, abstract = {Climate change poses new challenges for environmental protection and food safety. With reported consequences including warmer temperatures, melting of Alpine glaciers, higher sea levels, droughts, extreme rainfall events and increased surface UV radiation, concerns about the impact on food contaminants have been raised. While the effects of climate change on POPs were initially expected to have the biggest impact in the arctic region, given the intensity, frequency and spread of extreme weather events, global influence on environmental pollution and food safety is currently anticipated. Warmer temperatures are expected to enhance the volatilization of POPs and influence their partitioning between soil, sediment, water and atmosphere, enhancing their mobility and their potential for long-range atmospheric transport. Floods and strong winds can cause dilution but also spread of pollutants to wider areas. Limited data are available for the impact of climate change on BFRs levels, trends and toxicity. BFRs are widely used to protect people from fire hazards. Numerous BFR containing products are disposed in landfills where climate change could possibly induce increased leaching and resulting impacts on the food chain. Heat and UV exposure can lead to degradation of novel polymeric BFRs with adverse environmental effects. Long-term monitoring data are needed for feed, food and environmental compartments in order to evaluate climate change influence, which will also enable the development of prediction models specific for legacy and novel BFRs, for various climate change scenarios. Furthermore, there is a need to promote further discussion in the scientific community for the design of risk management and remediation activities for contaminated areas, in response to potential future conditions as the climate continues to change.}, }
@article {pmid39431553, year = {2024}, author = {Yesildere Saglam, H and Mizrak Sahin, B}, title = {The impact of climate change anxiety on premenstrual syndrome: A cross-sectional study.}, journal = {Journal of evaluation in clinical practice}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jep.14177}, pmid = {39431553}, issn = {1365-2753}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Climate change is thought to have possible effects on changes in the menstruation process, which covers an important period of time in women's lives. Our study aimed to determine the impact of climate change anxiety on premenstrual syndrome (PMS) in women of reproductive age.<br><br>METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study. The research was conducted online using various digital platforms between December 2023 and February 2024. This study was conducted on 456 women of reproductive age. The Personal Information Form, PMS Scale and Eco-Anxiety Scale were used for the data collection. The level of statistical significance was set at p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.05.<br><br>RESULTS: The prevalence of PMS was 44.7%. The average score for the Eco-Anxiety Scale was 27.28&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;6.44. A significant majority of participants (81.4%) stated that climate change would affect women's health, and 81.1% thought that they were affected by climate change. The Eco-Anxiety Scale scores were higher in women with PMS (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.05). The results of the binary logistic regression analysis showed that being affected by climate change (odds ratio [OR]&#x2009;=&#x2009;2.109, 95% confidence interval [CI]&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.045-4.259, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.035), age at menarche (OR&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.249, 95% Cl&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.073-1.453, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.004) and Eco-Anxiety Scale scores were significant predictors of PMS (OR&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.828, 95% Cl&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.791-0.867, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001).<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results of our study showed that women with PMS had higher Eco-Anxiety Scale scores. Given the global effects of climate change, it is important to investigate its effects as a risk factor for the emergence of PMS. Furthermore, women's healthcare providers play an important and beneficial role in adapting to a changing climate; these efforts will have long-term impacts.}, }
@article {pmid39430176, year = {2024}, author = {Kumar, N and Latha Telagarapu, VM and Fornoni, A}, title = {Climate Change, Heat Stress, and Kidney Disease-Associated Mortality and Health Care Utilization.}, journal = {Kidney international reports}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {2844-2847}, pmid = {39430176}, issn = {2468-0249}, }
@article {pmid39430120, year = {2024}, author = {Azmat, MA and Zaheer, M and Shaban, M and Arshad, S and Hasan, M and Ashraf, A and Naeem, M and Ahmad, A and Munawar, N}, title = {Autophagy: A New Avenue and Biochemical Mechanisms to Mitigate the Climate Change.}, journal = {Scientifica}, volume = {2024}, number = {}, pages = {9908323}, pmid = {39430120}, issn = {2090-908X}, abstract = {Autophagy is a preserved process in eukaryotes that allows large material degeneration and nutrient recovery via vacuoles or lysosomes in cytoplasm. Autophagy starts from the moment of induction during the formation of a phagophore. Degradation may occur in the autophagosomes even without fusion with lysosome or vacuole, particularly in microautophagosomes. This process is arbitrated by the conserved machinery of basic autophagy-related genes (ATGs). In selective autophagy, specific materials are recruited by autophagosomes via receptors. Selective autophagy targets a vast variety of cellular components for degradation, i.e., old or damaged organelles, aggregates, and inactive or misfolded proteins. In optimal conditions, autophagy in plants ensures cellular homeostasis, proper plant growth, and fitness. Moreover, autophagy is essential during stress responses in plants and aids in survival of plants. Several biotic and abiotic stresses, i.e., pathogen infection, nutrient deficiency, plant senescence, heat stress, drought, osmotic stress, and hypoxia induce autophagy in plants. Cell death is not a stress, which induces autophagy but in contrast, sometimes it is a consequence of autophagy. In this way, autophagy plays a vital role in plant survival during harsh environmental conditions by maintaining nutrient concentration through elimination of useless cellular components. This review discussed the recent advances regarding regulatory functions of autophagy under normal and stressful conditions in plants and suggests future prospects in mitigating climate change. Autophagy in plants offers a viable way to increase plant resilience to climate change by increasing stress tolerance and nutrient usage efficiency.}, }
@article {pmid39429677, year = {2024}, author = {Bezgrebelna, M and Hajat, S and Njenga, S and Settembrino, MR and Vickery, J and Kidd, SA}, title = {Neoliberalism, Climate Change, and Displaced and Homeless Populations: Exploring Interactions Through Case Studies.}, journal = {Humanity &amp; society}, volume = {48}, number = {2-4}, pages = {107-129}, pmid = {39429677}, issn = {0160-5976}, abstract = {There is a growing attention to neoliberal policies and practices as they relate to climate change and housing within academic literature. However, the combined effects of neoliberal political and economic decisions on the interaction between climate change and displaced and homeless populations have not been substantially explored. In this paper, we identify and focus on three key re-emerging themes prevalent within neoliberal discourses: economic considerations, individualization, and short-termism. To examine the intersecting influence of climate change and these themes on vulnerable populations, the following case studies are discussed: displaced populations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, refugees in Kenya, and tiny homes programs in the U.S. and Canada. The diversified contexts and levels of analysis allow for more nuanced understanding of the variety of ways in which neoliberal influences and climate-induced events impact the most vulnerable populations. We argue for the need to change the framing of these issues, which are often presented in neoliberal terms and are driven by neoliberal logic. We then present potential avenues for resolving the identified issues, such as through systemic changes, development of long-term solutions, and focusing on community-based adaptation (CBA) programs.}, }
@article {pmid39428448, year = {2024}, author = {Sylvestre, F and Mahamat-Nour, A and Naradoum, T and Alcoba, M and Gal, L and Paris, A and Cretaux, JF and Pham-Duc, B and Lescoulier, C and Recouvreur, R and Ahmat, MM and Gaya, D}, title = {Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in the Lake Chad Basin under current climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {24639}, pmid = {39428448}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Central Sahel is affected by a reinforcement of rainfall since the beginning of 1990s. This increase in rainfall is affected by high inter-annual variability and is characterized by extreme rain events causing floods of unprecedented magnitude. However, few studies have been carried out on these extreme events. Moreover, with current climate change expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle, we don't know if these events could become more frequent. Here, we report the hydrological changes that currently occur in the Lake Chad basin. Based on ground observations and satellite data, we focused on the 2022 flood event, demonstrating that it was the most important event from the last 60 years, comparable to what occurred during the last wet period between the 1950s and the 1960s. We showed that under this precipitation regime and if warming is not regulated at a global scale, the return period of the 2022 major riverine flood is expected to be between 2 and 5 years. By using modelling experiments, our study also suggested that in the next decade, future flow rates of the main rivers draining the Lake Chad basin could reach the values observed in the 1950s. These results strongly suggest anticipating water management in a context of poor infrastructural development.}, }
@article {pmid39427625, year = {2024}, author = {Rahko, J and Alola, AA}, title = {The effects of climate change technology spillovers on carbon emissions across European countries.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {122972}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122972}, pmid = {39427625}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {To unravel the challenges in the global diffusion of climate-friendly technologies, this investigation analyzes the diffusion of climate change-related technologies across countries. By using an unbalanced panel of selected European countries over the period 1990-2020, this investigation quantifies the carbon dioxide (CO2) emission effects of the diffusion of climate change-related technologies that are mediated by imports, geographical and technological proximity and free diffusion of technologies. In this study, the effects of domestic development of climate change-related technologies, population and affluence are also accounted for, and the emission effects are estimated using a fixed-effects panel model with instrumental variables. The instrumental variable for foreign technology spillovers is based on the technology support policies adopted in foreign countries. As expected, international spillovers of climate-friendly technologies are negatively linked to CO2 emissions, thus promoting emission reductions across the region. Importantly, emission reductions in Europe are more strongly influenced by international technology spillovers than by domestic innovation activities. Moreover, while all the analyzed technology diffusion channels appear relevant, the results are the most robust regarding import-mediated technology spillovers. Insights from this study support policy recommendations, especially in the trade policy context.}, }
@article {pmid39426824, year = {2024}, author = {Horton, R}, title = {Offline: Rethinking the human costs of climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {404}, number = {10462}, pages = {1506}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02260-8}, pmid = {39426824}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid39426542, year = {2024}, author = {Hosseini, P and Bailey, RT}, title = {Mutual impact of salinity and climate change on crop production water footprint in a semi-arid agricultural watershed: Application of SWAT-MODFLOW-salt.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176973}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176973}, pmid = {39426542}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Sustainable agriculture in intensively irrigated watersheds, particularly those in arid and semi-arid regions, requires enhanced management practices to maintain crop production, which depends on climate, available water resources, soil conditions, irrigation practices, and crop type. Among these factors, soil salinity and climate change are significant challenges to agricultural productivity. To investigate the long-term influence of salinity and climate change on crop production from 1999 to 2100 in irrigated semi-arid regions, we apply the water footprint (WF) concept using the hydro-chemical watershed model SWAT-MODFLOW-Salt, driven by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), to a 732 km[2] irrigated stream-aquifer system within the Lower Arkansas River Valley (LARV), Colorado, USA. The study focused on calculating the green (WFgreen), blue (WFblue), and total (WFtotal) crop production WFs for 29 crops in the region, with and without including salinity effect on crop yield. Results reveal that during the baseline period (1999-2009), the total annual average WFgreen, WFblue, and WFtotal increased by 7.6 %, 4.4 %, and 6.5 %, respectively, under salinity stress, as crops experienced reductions of up to 4.6 %, 1.6 %, and 2.3 % in green, blue, and total crop yield. The mutual impact of salinity and the worst-case climate model (IPSL_CM5A_MR) under the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5) led to a 3.3 %, 1.9 %, and 3 % increase in green, blue, and total crop production WFs. Furthermore, the study highlighted that the proportion of green, blue, and total crop production WFs in the LARV exceeded the world average. This discrepancy was attributed to various factors, including different spatial and temporal crop distribution, irrigation practices, soil types, and climate conditions. Notably, salinity stress affected green crop yield and green WF more significantly than blue crop yield and blue WF across all GCM models. This finding underscores the importance of prioritizing management practices to control salinity-associated challenges within the region.}, }
@article {pmid39426450, year = {2024}, author = {Okon, EM and Oyesiji, AA and Okeleye, DE and Kanonuhwa, M and Khalifa, NE and Eissa, EH and Mathew, RT and Eissa, MEH and Alqahtani, MM and Abdelnour, SA}, title = {The Escalating Threat of Climate Change-Driven Diseases in Fish: Evidence from a Global Perspective - A Literature Review.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {120184}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.120184}, pmid = {39426450}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Climate change has brought significant alterations to the aquatic environment, leading to the rapid spread of infectious fish diseases with increasing water temperatures. It is crucial to understand how aquatic pathogens will impact fish in the context of climate change. This study aimed to assess the effects of climate change on fish diseases globally. Data from 104 papers published between 2003 and 2022 were analyzed to identify recent trends in the field. The majority of the studies (54%) focused on parasites, particularly proliferative kidney disease, while 22% examined bacteria. The United States accounted for 19% of the studies, followed by Canada at 14%, covering a wide range of fish species. More research was published on farmed fish (54%) than wild fish (30%), with a higher emphasis on freshwater species (62%) compared to marine species (34%). Most published studies (64%) focused on the local environment rather than the farm level (7%). The findings highlight temperature as a significant threat to global aquaculture and fisheries, impacting the progression of fish diseases. These impacts could be exacerbated by factors such as pH, salinity, and ocean acidification, posing challenges to fish health. Therefore, there is a pressing need for enhanced research and management strategies to address these issues effectively in the future.}, }
@article {pmid39426089, year = {2024}, author = {Hubert, DL and Bentz, EJ and Mason, RT}, title = {Increased offspring size and reduced gestation length in an ectothermic vertebrate under a worst-case climate change scenario.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {125}, number = {}, pages = {103990}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2024.103990}, pmid = {39426089}, issn = {0306-4565}, abstract = {As global temperatures continue to rise, understanding the impacts of warming environments has become increasingly important. Temperature is especially relevant for ectothermic organisms which depend upon consistent and predictable annual temperature cycles for reproduction and development. However, additional research is required in this area to elucidate the potential impacts of climate change on future generations. To understand how projected increases in environmental temperatures may impact reproductive outcomes within natural populations of ectothermic vertebrates, we manipulated minimum ambient temperatures during gestation in Red-sided garter snakes (Thamnophis sirtalis parietalis). Wild snakes were collected in the Interlake region of Manitoba, Canada during their spring mating season and allowed to mate in controlled conditions. For the duration of gestation, mated females were placed into one of two ambient thermal conditions: temperatures emulating those found in the species' natural habitat or temperatures with a consistent 5 °C increase to match end-of-century climate change projections. We recorded observations for each litter and all neonates resulting from controlled mating trials. We observed no difference in litter sizes or birth rates between thermal conditions. However, we observed a significant reduction in gestation length and significant increase to neonate body mass and body condition associated with increased ambient temperatures. These results suggest that increased minimum temperatures during gestation may confer reproductive benefits for the northern populations of this species even under the most extreme current modeled warming predictions. We discuss the broader implications of this effect, including possible negative ecological outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid39426075, year = {2024}, author = {Celeghini, ECC and Baatsch-Nascimento, F and Bozzi, ADR and Garcia-Oliveros, LN and Arruda, RP}, title = {Bovine testicular heat stress: From climate change to effects on microRNA profile.}, journal = {Animal reproduction science}, volume = {270}, number = {}, pages = {107620}, doi = {10.1016/j.anireprosci.2024.107620}, pmid = {39426075}, issn = {1873-2232}, abstract = {Heat stress is caused by exposure of animals to high temperatures and humidity, outside their thermal comfort zone. This can have negative outcomes, including adversely affecting general well-being and reducing productive and reproductive performance. In males, heat stress can disrupt testicular thermoregulation, with deleterious effects on spermatogenesis and consequently, decreases in sperm quality and fertility potential. Thus, high environmental temperature is considered one of the most important factors that predisposes bulls to subfertility and has already been the subject of many studies, particularly in tropical or subtropical countries. It is essential to study effects of testicular heat stress in bulls, know the chronology of clinical and sperm findings, and understand the underlying pathophysiology. In addition, elucidating molecular mechanisms involved in heat stress and testicular function could provide the basis for effective, evidence-based strategies for selecting more thermotolerant animals. Excessive heat affects expression of messenger RNA (mRNA) and microRNA (miRNA) in sperm, which have important roles in regulating male fertility. Based on current trends in climate change, the incidence of chronically high temperatures that cause heat stress is expected to increase, posing increasing risks to health and survival of many species. The study of mRNAs and miRNAs can provide valuable insights to select animals that are more resilient to climate change. In addition to the search for more thermotolerant animals, other strategies to mitigate effects of heat stress include reproductive biotechniques and promotion of a better environment.}, }
@article {pmid39424825, year = {2024}, author = {Zahir, A and Ali, Z and Al-Shamayleh, AS and Bas, SRA and Mahmood, B and Al-Ghushami, AH and Adnan, R and Akhunzada, A}, title = {Enhanced climate change resilience on wheat anther morphology using optimized deep learning techniques.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {24533}, pmid = {39424825}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Triticum/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Deep Learning ; *Climate Change ; *Flowers ; Plant Breeding/methods ; Heat-Shock Response ; Neural Networks, Computer ; Agriculture/methods ; Pollen ; }, abstract = {Wheat commands attention due to its significant impact on culture, nutrition, the economy, and the guarantee of food security. The anticipated rise in temperatures resulting from climate change is a key factor contributing to food insecurity, as it markedly reduces wheat harvests. Terminal heat stress mostly affects spike fertility in wheat, specifically influencing pollen fertility and anther morphology. This research especially focuses on the shape of anthers and examines the effects of heat stress. The DinoLite Microscope's high-resolution images are used to measure the length and width of wheat anthers. By using object identification techniques, the research accurately measures the length and width of each anther in images, offering valuable insights into the differences between various wheat varieties. Furthermore, Deep Learning (DL) methodologies are utilized to enhance agriculture, specifically employing record categorization to advance plant breeding management. Given the ongoing challenges in agriculture, there is a belief that incorporating the latest technologies is crucial. The primary objective of this study is to explore how Deep Learning algorithms can be beneficial in categorizing agricultural records, particularly in monitoring and identifying variations in spring wheat germplasm. Various Deep Learning algorithms, including Convolution Neural Network (CNN), LeNet, and Inception-V3 are implemented to classify the records and extract various patterns. LeNet demonstrates optimized accuracy in classifying the records, outperforming CNN by 52% and Inception-V3 by 70%. Moreover, Precision, Recall, and F1 Measure are utilized to ascertain accuracy levels. The investigation also enhances our comprehension of the distinct roles played by various genes in abiotic stress tolerance among diverse wheat varieties. The outcomes of the research hold the potential to transform agricultural practices by introducing a more effective, data-driven approach to plant breeding management.}, }
@article {pmid39423899, year = {2024}, author = {Cappa, P and Andreoli, V and La, C and Palacios-Abrantes, J and Reygondeau, G and Cheung, WWL and Zeller, D}, title = {Climate change undermines seafood micronutrient supply from wild-capture fisheries in Southeast Asia and Pacific Island countries.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {177024}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177024}, pmid = {39423899}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Marine ecosystem functions are affected by climate change impacts such as ocean warming, deoxygenation and acidification. These impacts drive changes in distributions and body size of fish species and directly affect fisheries. Wild-capture fisheries are crucial for providing nutrients, livelihoods, and employment in tropical Southeast Asia and Pacific Island countries, where coastal communities are highly vulnerable to climate change. We examined the impacts of climate change on fish stocks and nutrient availability of seven key micronutrients (calcium, Omega-3 fatty acids, iodine, iron, vitamin A, vitamin B12 and zinc) in Southeast Asia, Pacific Islands, and Oceania (Australia and New Zealand). We combined micronutrient demands by local human populations with Sea Around Us reconstructed catch time series and catch projections from a dynamic bioclimate envelope model for the 21st century. The model predicted a decline in the Maximum Catch Potential (MCP) within Exclusive Economic Zones for Oceania, Pacific Islands, and Southeast Asian countries. Under the 'strong mitigation' scenario, catch potential reductions ranged from a decline of 54-66 % in Oceania, 58-92 % in Pacific Islands, and 65-86 % in Southeast Asia by the mid to the end of the 21st century relative to the historical period, respectively. Under the 'no-mitigation' climate scenario, reductions were more severe, with a decline of 55-70 % in Oceania, 66-92 % in Pacific Islands, and 70-86 % in Southeast Asia for the same time periods. Our findings indicate that Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to meet the recommended nutrient intake demand for most micronutrients through their fisheries (not considering trade or aquaculture production), except for iodine and vitamin B12. Pacific Island countries will likely follow the same pattern while Southeast Asia is expected to face worsening deficits, except for iodine and vitamin B12. This study highlights the importance of incorporating nutritional considerations of seafood into national food, trade and economic policies.}, }
@article {pmid39423894, year = {2024}, author = {Bakker, W and Morel, T and Ozinga, W and Scheper, J and Vergeer, P}, title = {The relative importance of nitrogen deposition and climate change in driving plant diversity decline in roadside grasslands.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176962}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176962}, pmid = {39423894}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Nitrogen deposition and climate change have been identified as major threats to the biodiversity of semi-natural grasslands. Their relative contribution to recent biodiversity loss is however not fully understood, and may depend on local site conditions such as soil type, which hampers efforts to prevent further decline. We used data from >900 permanent plots in semi-natural grasslands in Dutch roadsides to investigate whether trends in plant diversity and community composition (2004-2020) could be explained by: (1) nitrogen deposition (NHx and NOy) and climate change (winter degree days and summer drought), (2) the interactive effect of nitrogen deposition and climate change, and (3) the interactive effect of nitrogen deposition and climate change with soil type. Overall we observed a decline in plant diversity and an increased dominance of tall species and grasses. These changes were linked to winter warming, but not to changes in summer drought and nitrogen deposition. The effect of winter warming was more pronounced in areas with higher NOy deposition, but was consistent across different soil types. Our results suggest that winter warming will become an important driver of plant diversity loss by altering competitive interactions, which could have major repercussions for other trophic levels and ecosystem services. Future conservation and restoration of grassland biodiversity therefore requires management regimes that are adapted to winter warming.}, }
@article {pmid39421933, year = {2024}, author = {Fawad, M and Ullah, S and Xu, X}, title = {Climate-responsive telemedicine: Innovative strategy for enhancing healthcare in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of global health}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {03043}, pmid = {39421933}, issn = {2047-2986}, }
@article {pmid39421932, year = {2024}, author = {Ryding, S and McQueen, A and Klaassen, M and Tattersall, GJ and Symonds, MRE}, title = {Long- and short-term responses to climate change in body and appendage size of diverse Australian birds.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {e17517}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17517}, pmid = {39421932}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {RGPIN-2020-05089//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; DP190101244//Australian Research Council/ ; //Centre for Integrative Ecology, Deakin University/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Australia ; *Birds/physiology/anatomy &amp; histology ; *Body Size ; Wings, Animal/anatomy &amp; histology/physiology ; }, abstract = {Changes to body size and shape have been identified as potential adaptive responses to climate change, but the pervasiveness of these responses has been questioned. To address this, we measured body and appendage size from 5013 museum bird skins of 78 ecologically and evolutionary diverse Australian species. We found that morphological change is a shared response to climate change across birds. Birds increased relative bill surface area, tarsus length, and relative wing length through time, consistent with expectations of increasing appendage size as climates warm. Furthermore, birds decreased in absolute wing length, consistent with the expectation of decreasing body size in warmer climates. Interestingly, these trends were generally consistent across different diets and migratory and thermoregulatory behaviors. Shorter term responses to higher temperatures were contrary to long-term effects for appendages, wherein relative appendage size decreased after hotter years, indicating the complex selective pressures acting on birds as temperatures rise with climate change. Overall, our findings support the notion that morphological adaptation is a widespread response to climate change in birds that is independent of other ecological traits.}, }
@article {pmid39421520, year = {2024}, author = {George, N and Mahendran, P and Rajkumar, VL and Vivekanandan, VS and Thangavel, V and Elangovan, V and Palanisamy, Y and Poomalai, Y and Puvaneswaran, D}, title = {Climate Change Influence on Health Domains, a Public Perception from a District in South India - A Cross-sectional Study.}, journal = {Indian journal of community medicine : official publication of Indian Association of Preventive &amp; Social Medicine}, volume = {49}, number = {5}, pages = {752-758}, pmid = {39421520}, issn = {0970-0218}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The effects of climate change have been evident throughout all domains of health such as physical, social, environmental, and mental. However, the lack of perception made it a grey topic among the public. The aim of the study was to determine the perception of climate change on physical, environmental, and mental domains of health and to find the association between the physical, environmental, and mental effects of climate change and its basic characteristics.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was conducted in a cross-sectional design among the general population above 30 years in the field practice area [urban and rural] of tertiary care hospital Perambalur for a period of three months. The data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire and the interviewer method, which includes sociodemographic characteristics along with questions on the perception of climate change effects on mental, physical, and environmental aspects. The regression models were used to analyze the odds of perception among the subjects with respect to the various domains of characteristics.<br><br>RESULTS: The study included 877 participants, where the majority of subjects perceived the effects of climate change on physical, mental, and environmental domains of health. The odds of having a higher perception were significant in regression analysis among people with higher/school education, agriculture occupation, and rural residence (P < 0.05).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Most of the study participants had an increased perception of climate change effects, making the subjects better candidates to impart adaptive strategies. Community-based programs have to be promoted to develop better comprehension and factual perception of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39421457, year = {2022}, author = {Zeppetello, LRV and Raftery, AE and Battisti, DS}, title = {Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change.}, journal = {Communications earth &amp; environment}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {39421457}, issn = {2662-4435}, support = {R01 HD070936/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {The Heat Index is a metric that quantifies heat exposure in human beings. Here, using probabilistic emission projections, we show that changes in the Heat Index driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions will increase global exposure to dangerous environments in the coming decades. Even if the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C is met, the exposure to dangerous Heat Index levels will likely increase by 50-100% across much of the tropics and increase by a factor of 3-10 in many regions throughout the midlatitudes. Without emissions reductions more aggressive than those considered possible by our statistical projection, it is likely that by 2100, many people living in tropical regions will be exposed to dangerously high Heat Index values during most days of each typical year, and that the kinds of deadly heat waves that have been rarities in the midlatitudes will become annual occurrences.}, }
@article {pmid39420232, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, T and Mao, D and Li, E and Hu, G and Feng, C and Liu, P and Yang, M and Deng, M and Li, Y}, title = {Non-stationarity of runoff and sediment load and its drivers under climate change and anthropogenic activities in Dongting Lake Basin.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {24333}, pmid = {39420232}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {U19A2051//the Joint Fund for Regional Innovation and Development of National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 23A0049//the Key Scientific Research Project of the Education Department of Hunan Province, China/ ; 20240101ST//the Research Foundation of the Department of Natural Resources of Hunan Province/ ; 21YBA035//the Philosophy and Social Sciences Fund of Hunan Province, China/ ; 5010002//the Construction Program for Fourteen Five-Year's Key Disciplines (Geography) of Hunan Province, China/ ; 42001024//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 21B0625//the Scientific Research Foundation of the Education Department of Hunan Province, China/ ; }, abstract = {Analysing non-stationarity in runoff and sediment load is crucial for effective water resource management in the Dongting Lake basin amid climate change and human impacts. Using the Mann-Kendall test, Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape framework, and Random Forest models, we evaluated non-stationarity and its drivers in the annual runoff and annual sediment load series at eight hydrological stations from 1961 to 2021. These stations include three inflow sites at the Jingjiang Three Outlets (Ouchi, Songzi, and Hudu Rivers), four inflow sites in the Four Rivers basin (Xiang, Zi, Yuan, and Li Rivers), and one outflow site at Chenglingji. Results revealed a significant decrease in annual runoff at the Three Outlets and Chenglingji, while the Four Rivers basin showed no significant trend. The non-stationary models with multiple physically-based covariates better captured non-stationarity compared to single covariate models. Annual rainfall was a key contributor to annual runoff in the Four Rivers basin, while reservoir storage capacity played a more dominant role in the Three Outlets. At Chenglingji station, both factors significantly influenced annual runoff. For annual sediment load, reservoir storage capacity emerged as the most critical factor across all regions. These findings provide a basis for improving runoff and sediment regulation in the Dongting Lake basin.}, }
@article {pmid39418703, year = {2024}, author = {Khalifa, M and Ullah, S and Abdelfattah, T}, title = {Mapping the influence: Institutional blockholder coordination and climate change risk disclosure.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {122788}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122788}, pmid = {39418703}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This study investigates the relationship between institutional blockholder coordination, proxied by geographic proximity, and climate change risk disclosure. Using a sample of 2,887 firm-year observations for S&amp;P 500 companies from 2010 to 2022, we reveal that a firm's climate change risk disclosure decreases when its institutional blockholders are more coordinated. In addition, we find that the negative relationship between institutional blockholder coordination and climate change risk disclosure manifests more in firms with less diversified institutional blockholders, a smaller number of institutional blockholders, a prominent position to their blockholders, and more dedicated institutional blockholder ownership. Moreover, we find that the negative association between institutional blockholder coordination and climate change risk disclosure is more pronounced in firms with corporate general counsels, a non-concentrated customer base, higher asset tangibility, and those that are environmentally sensitive. Our main conclusion still holds after using an alternative measure for climate change risk disclosure as well as a battery of endogeneity tests. Finally, we propose that institutional blockholder coordination lessens climate change risk disclosure through the channel of increased performance-induced CEO dismissal. Collectively, this study provides insightful implications for academics, financial statement users, regulators, and policymakers.}, }
@article {pmid39418381, year = {2024}, author = {Jones, MW and Veraverbeke, S and Andela, N and Doerr, SH and Kolden, C and Mataveli, G and Pettinari, ML and Le Quéré, C and Rosan, TM and van der Werf, GR and van Wees, D and Abatzoglou, JT}, title = {Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {386}, number = {6719}, pages = {eadl5889}, doi = {10.1126/science.adl5889}, pmid = {39418381}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Climate change increases fire-favorable weather in forests, but fire trends are also affected by multiple other controlling factors that are difficult to untangle. We use machine learning to systematically group forest ecoregions into 12 global forest pyromes, with each showing distinct sensitivities to climatic, human, and vegetation controls. This delineation revealed that rapidly increasing forest fire emissions in extratropical pyromes, linked to climate change, offset declining emissions in tropical pyromes during 2001 to 2023. Annual emissions tripled in one extratropical pyrome due to increases in fire-favorable weather, compounded by increased forest cover and productivity. This contributed to a 60% increase in forest fire carbon emissions from forest ecoregions globally. Our results highlight the increasing vulnerability of forests and their carbon stocks to fire disturbance under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39416895, year = {2024}, author = {Das, S and Choudhury, MR and Chatterjee, B and Das, P and Bagri, S and Paul, D and Bera, M and Dutta, S}, title = {Unraveling the urban climate crisis: Exploring the nexus of urbanization, climate change, and their impacts on the environment and human well-being - A global perspective.}, journal = {AIMS public health}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {963-1001}, pmid = {39416895}, issn = {2327-8994}, abstract = {The accelerating pace of urbanization, coupled with the intensifying impacts of climate change, poses unprecedented challenges to both the environment and human well-being. In this review, we delved into the intricate interaction between climate change and urbanization and the various effects they have on the environment and human well-being, shedding light on the emergent urban climate crisis. Urban areas serve as epicenters for diverse socio-economic activities, yet they also contribute significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation. Through an interdisciplinary lens, we explored the root causes of the urban climate crisis, examining how rapid urbanization exacerbates climate change and vice versa. By synthesizing current research and case studies, we elucidate the various environmental and social ramifications of this nexus, ranging from urban heat island effects to heightened vulnerability to extreme weather events. Furthermore, we delve into the unequal distribution of climate risks within urban populations, highlighting the disproportionate burden borne by marginalized communities. Finally, the chapter presents strategies and interventions for mitigating and adapting to the urban climate crisis, emphasizing the imperative of holistic and equitable approaches that prioritize both environmental sustainability and human well-being. Overall, this review calls for concerted efforts to unravel the complexities of the urban climate crisis and forge a path toward resilient, sustainable, and equitable urban futures.}, }
@article {pmid39414961, year = {2024}, author = {Zhu, K and Song, Y and Lesage, JC and Luong, JC and Bartolome, JW and Chiariello, NR and Dudney, J and Field, CB and Hallett, LM and Hammond, M and Harrison, SP and Hayes, GF and Hobbs, RJ and Holl, KD and Hopkinson, P and Larios, L and Loik, ME and Prugh, LR}, title = {Rapid shifts in grassland communities driven by climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39414961}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {2244711//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 2244711//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 2306198//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 2047239//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1628754//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 99-35101-8234//United States Department of Agriculture | Agricultural Research Service (USDA Agricultural Research Service)/ ; }, abstract = {Many terrestrial plant communities, especially forests, have been shown to lag in response to rapid climate change. Grassland communities may respond more quickly to novel climates, as they consist mostly of short-lived species, which are directly exposed to macroclimate change. Here we report the rapid response of grassland communities to climate change in the California Floristic Province. We estimated 349 vascular plant species' climatic niches from 829,337 occurrence records, compiled 15 long-term community composition datasets from 12 observational studies and 3 global change experiments, and analysed community compositional shifts in the climate niche space. We show that communities experienced significant shifts towards species associated with warmer and drier locations at rates of 0.0216 ± 0.00592 °C yr[-][1] (mean ± s.e.) and -3.04 ± 0.742 mm yr[-][1], and these changes occurred at a pace similar to that of climate warming and drying. These directional shifts were consistent across observations and experiments. Our findings contrast with the lagged responses observed in communities dominated by long-lived plants and suggest greater biodiversity changes than expected in the near future.}, }
@article {pmid39414960, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Grassland communities rapidly respond to climate change to settle climatic debts.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39414960}, issn = {2397-334X}, }
@article {pmid39414843, year = {2024}, author = {Blinova, D and Emuru, R and Bagozzi, BE}, title = {Individual attendance data for over 30 years of international climate change talks.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1134}, doi = {10.1038/s41597-024-03978-7}, pmid = {39414843}, issn = {2052-4463}, abstract = {The international community has formally negotiated over climate change since 1991. The annual meetings that host these negotiations have seen an ever-growing number of individuals representing countries, international organizations, or non-governmental organizations. These meetings and their attendees have accordingly become the focal point of international climate change cooperation for both the international community and scholars studying climate change politics. Yet, researchers have been unable to access and analyze comprehensive attendee-level data pertaining to these negotiations in terms of attendees' names, genders, job titles, delegations, divisions, and affiliations. In applying text-as-data techniques to attendance roster PDFs, we extract and build attendee-level datasets for all annual negotiations held under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its precursor, 1991-2023. These data include original language and English-translated information on 27,470 unique delegations and 310,200 attendees over a 32-year period. Summaries and validations in turn highlight the promise of our data for the study of attendance patterns and characteristics across delegations and over time.}, }
@article {pmid39414103, year = {2024}, author = {Zhao, W and Ye, C and Li, J and Yu, X}, title = {Increased risk of antibiotic resistance in surface water due to global warming.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {263}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {120149}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.120149}, pmid = {39414103}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {As the pace of global warming accelerates, so do the threats to human health, urgent priority among them being antibiotic-resistant infections. In the context of global warming, this review summarises the direct and indirect effects of rising surface water temperatures on the development of bacterial antibiotic resistance. First, the resistance of typical pathogens such as E. coli increased with average temperature. This is not only related to increased bacterial growth rate and horizontal gene transfer frequency at high temperatures but also heat shock responses and cumulative effects. Secondly, the acceleration of bacterial growth indirectly promotes antibiotic residues in surface water, which is conducive to the growth and spread of resistant bacteria. Furthermore, the cascading effects of global warming, including the release of nutrients into the water and the resulting increase of bacteria and algae, indirectly promote the improvement of resistance. Water treatment processes exposed to high temperatures also increase the risk of resistance in surface water. The fitness costs of antibiotic resistance under these dynamic conditions are also discussed, concluding the relationship between various factors and resistance persistence. It was expected to provide a comprehensive basis for mitigating antibiotic resistance in the face of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid39413807, year = {2024}, author = {Tang, T and Ge, HH and Ma, T and Hao, MM and Chen, S and Lv, CL and Qiu, YB and Wang, YH and Tian, Y and Chen, JJ and Yuan, S and Wang, Q and Jiang, D and Ding, FY and Liu, W and Fang, LQ}, title = {Global risk dynamics of Borrelia miyamotoi in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {e70000}, doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.70000}, pmid = {39413807}, issn = {1462-2920}, support = {42201497//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 220211/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 2023YFC2605603//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 2023000117//Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Science/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; *Ixodes/microbiology ; *Borrelia ; Humans ; *Ecosystem ; Borrelia Infections/epidemiology/microbiology ; Arachnid Vectors/microbiology ; }, abstract = {The impact of Borrelia miyamotoi on human health, facilitated by the expanding geographical distribution and increasing population of Ixodes ticks, remains obscure in the context of global climate change. We employed multiple models to evaluate the effect of global climate change on the risk of B. miyamotoi worldwide across various scenarios. The habitat suitability index of four primary vector tick species for B. miyamotoi, including Ixodes persulcatus, Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes pacificus and Ixodes scapularis, was projected using a boosted regression tree model, considering multiple shared socio-economic pathway scenarios over various time periods. The modelling analysis reveals that, apart from I. scapularis, future global warming will result in a northward shift in the other three vector tick species and a gradual reduction in suitable habitats. Random forest models indicate consistent changes in B. miyamotoi and its primary tick species, with potential risk areas shrinking and shifting northward, particularly in the eastern USA, northeastern and northern Europe and northeast Asia. These findings highlight the urgent need for enhanced active surveillance of B. miyamotoi infection in primary vector tick species across projected potential risk areas. The effect of climate change on B. miyamotoi distribution might have significant implications for public health decision-making regarding tick-borne pathogens.}, }
@article {pmid39412743, year = {2024}, author = {Ek, C and Hébert, JR and Friedman, DB and Porter, DE}, title = {Climate Change, Racism, and Food Insecurity: Cyclical Impacts of Stressors Exacerbate Health Disparities.}, journal = {Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39412743}, issn = {2196-8837}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Disadvantaged populations have higher rates of chronic disease, including heart disease, cancer, and diabetes. Race, ethnicity, lower socioeconomic status, and poverty all contribute to these disproportionate rates. Other factors, including systemic racism, climate change, poor diet, lack of food access, and epigenetic influences, that are distributed and experienced differently across vulnerable populations also play a significant role in the development of chronic diseases. This comprehensive review of contributors to chronic diseases emphasizes a unique focus on these identified emerging factors.<br><br>METHODS: An ad hoc literature review using OVID Medline and Web of Science was conducted.<br><br>RESULTS: Findings from prior studies indicate that multiple stressors, both in isolation and in combination, and their negative impacts on both physical and mental health of minorities are exacerbated by climate change.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Various stressors dramatically increase chronic disease risk in minority groups. Recommendations for future research to elucidate the impacts of climatic, racial, and dietary adversity with minority populations are presented. Further study in this area is critical for achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals and improving public health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid39411671, year = {2024}, author = {Parija, SC}, title = {From the desk of editor-in-chief: Climate change and One Health Mission.}, journal = {Tropical parasitology}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {63-64}, pmid = {39411671}, issn = {2229-5070}, }
@article {pmid39410909, year = {2024}, author = {Aranda, I and Martin-Benito, D and Sánchez-Gómez, D and de Simón, BF and Gea-Izquierdo, G}, title = {Different drought-tolerance strategies of tree species to cope with increased water stress under climate change in a mixed forest.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {176}, number = {5}, pages = {e14562}, doi = {10.1111/ppl.14562}, pmid = {39410909}, issn = {1399-3054}, support = {REMEDINAL TE (2018/EMT-4338, 2019-2023)//Comunidad de Madrid/ ; PID2019-110273RB-I00//Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; PID2022-142746NB-I00//Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; TED2021-131947B-100//Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Droughts ; *Trees/physiology ; *Pinus/physiology ; *Plant Leaves/physiology ; *Water/physiology/metabolism ; *Quercus/physiology ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; Dehydration ; Juniperus/physiology ; Adaptation, Physiological/physiology ; }, abstract = {Trees' functional strategies to cope with extreme drought are essential under climate change. In a mixed Mediterranean forest, we analyzed the functional strategy in response to drought of four co-occurring species (Pinus pinea, Pinus pinaster, Juniperus oxycedrus, and Quercus ilex) during two years. Specifically, we assessed functional traits related to tree water status, leaf water relations, and gas exchange. Different trait-syndrome metrics and the functional strategies under water stress observed suggested a species drought-tolerance differentiation, with the more anysohidric Q. ilex and J. oxycedrus showing a much higher drought tolerance than the more isohydric P. pinea and P. pinaster. All species recovered from negative leaf turgor reached during peak water stress in summer. Q. ilex and J. oxycedrus kept lower leaf osmotic potentials and lower sensitivity of leaf gas exchange and leaf photochemistry to water stress. In contrast, the pine species exhibited more drought-avoidant and water-conservative strategies, yet this behavior was less effective in mitigating water stress's impact on their physiology. The pine species were the most affected by drought, with prolonged near-zero net photosynthesis during summer. P. pinaster was more isohydric than P. pinea and exhibited a lower capacity to maintain leaf turgor. Physiological processes regulating leaf turgor under drought constitute a key functional strategy involved in the carbon and water-related mechanisms, ultimately inducing mortality under hot drought. The currently observed mortality dynamics for P. pinaster, and to a lower extent in P. pinea, may be exacerbated by loss of functional homeostasis.}, }
@article {pmid39410668, year = {2024}, author = {Park, MK and Baek, S and Jeong, DW and Kim, GS}, title = {Nurses' Perceptions and Behaviours Regarding Climate Change and Health: A Quantile Regression Analysis.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jan.16535}, pmid = {39410668}, issn = {1365-2648}, support = {6-2022-0028//Mo-Im Kim Nursing Research Institute, Yonsei University College of Nursing/ ; 2020R1A6A1A03041989//National Research Foundation of Korea/ ; }, abstract = {AIMS: The aim of this study is to identify the factors associated with nurses' perceptions and behaviours related to climate change and health (PBCH) according to their PBCH levels.<br><br>DESIGN: A cross-sectional study was used.<br><br>METHODS: This study included a sample of 499 Korean nurses and adhered to the STROBE checklist. Data were collected from March 23 to May 10, 2023. Quantile regression analysis was performed, and PBCH levels were measured using the Korean version of the Climate Health and Nursing Tool.<br><br>RESULTS: Across all quantile groups, the experience of extreme weather events and awareness of climate change-coping facilitators were associated with PBCH. Differences were observed in factors associated with PBCH levels. Significant associations with PBCH were observed within the 75th percentile group, for having a religion, household income, and workplace climate friendliness. In the 25th percentile group, having a child, the number of sources for climate change-health-related information, and experience in setting climate change-health goals and strategies significantly influenced PBCH.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We propose a differentiated strategy by elucidating the factors associated with high and low quantiles of PBCH levels.<br><br>IMPLICATIONS: By verifying specific factors associated with PBCH levels, nurses can enhance their preparedness to respond to the health risks posed by climate change in their clients.<br><br>IMPACT: Identifying common factors associated with all quantiles of nurses is important for establishing universal PBCH characteristics. Recognising the distinctions between high and low PBCH levels can aid in developing tailored nursing strategies to enhance PBCH among nurses.<br><br>REPORTING METHOD: This study adhered to the STROBE guidelines.<br><br>No Patient or Public Contribution.}, }
@article {pmid39406272, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, B and Xu, X and Wang, S and Yang, T and Liu, Z and Falk, S}, title = {Carbon dioxide fertilization enhanced carbon sink offset by climate change and land use in Amazonia on a centennial scale.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {955}, number = {}, pages = {176903}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176903}, pmid = {39406272}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Amazon, the Earth's largest tropical forest, plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle, acting as a significant carbon sink. Recent studies, however, indicate a decline in its carbon sequestration capacity due to climate variability, intensive deforestation, and fires. This study aims to examine the impacts of these factors on the carbon dynamics of the Amazon over a centennial scale based on dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) of Trendy-v11. It was found that the Amazon region exhibited significant spatiotemporal variations in net land carbon (C) fluxes, and was a net C sink (40.02 ± 242.64 Tg C yr[-1]) during 1901-2021. The Amazonian net biome productivity (NBP) showed a 6-decades-scale shift from a decreasing trend (-3.78 Tg C yr[-2]) during 1901-1959 to an increasing trend (2.39 Tg C yr[-2]) during 1960-2021. The Amazonian NBP was negatively related to air temperature while positively related to dry-season precipitation during 1901-2021. Furthermore, the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration during 1901-2020 enhanced Amazonian NBP by 36.40 ± 8.39 Pg C, which was largely offset by land use change (-18.84 ± 12.02 Pg C) and climate change (-10.03 ± 5.00 Pg C). Our findings underscore the critical need for sustainable management practices in the Amazon to enhance its C sink and preserve its function in the global climate system.}, }
@article {pmid39405988, year = {2024}, author = {Cui, Y and Yan, Y}, title = {Effect of water and sanitation, PM pollution and climate change of COPD and LRIs under different sociodemographic transitions.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {237}, number = {}, pages = {150-159}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.012}, pmid = {39405988}, issn = {1476-5616}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To estimate the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) stratified by geographic location, and social-demographic status for 21 regions across the world from 1990 to 2019.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: The analysis utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, focusing on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as measures of COPD and LRI burden. Trend analyses using the Joinpoint model were conducted across five socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles.<br><br>METHODS: We investigated the burden of COPD and LRIs employing restricted cubic splines to flexibly identify relationships between DALY rates and SDI. This method allowed for detailed examination of trends over time across different regions and socio-demographic contexts.<br><br>RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the ASMR of COPD attributed to PM for global and five SDI quintiles decreased 61.80&#xa0;%, 53.41&#xa0;%, 63.04&#xa0;%, 63.00&#xa0;%, 40.98&#xa0;%, 12.14&#xa0;% respectively. In terms of PM Pollution, there was an inverted U-shaped association between the DALY and SDI for COPD, the DALY rate associated with LRIs due to PM pollution exhibited a progressive decline as SDI increased.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Even though the trend in mortality and DALY of COPD and LRIs decreased globally, the COPD and LRI burden attributed to PM pollution remains high, particularly in lower SDI quintiles.}, }
@article {pmid39405873, year = {2024}, author = {Mikulčić, H and Duić, N and Dewil, R}, title = {Climate change adoption for sustainable economic development.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {122838}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122838}, pmid = {39405873}, issn = {1095-8630}, }
@article {pmid39405853, year = {2024}, author = {Free, G and Poikane, S and Solheim, AL and Bussettini, M and Bradley, C and Smith, J and Caroni, R and Bresciani, M and Pinardi, M and Giardino, C and van de Bund, W}, title = {Climate change and ecological assessment in Europe under the WFD - Hitting moving targets with shifting baselines?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {122884}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122884}, pmid = {39405853}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The Water Framework Directive (WFD) sets the fundamental structure for assessing the status of water bodies in the European Union. Its implementation is currently entering its fourth six-year cycle assisted by a total of 38 guidance documents. The principal objective is to ensure good status for surface and ground waters. The functioning of the WFD is based on detecting the impact of human pressures on biological, physico-chemical, or hydromorphological parameters, and reducing these causal pressures through a program of measures to achieve good status. Climate change can exert a significant influence on ecological status by directly altering parameters monitored, pressure interactions, or influencing the effectiveness of programs of measures. Aquatic systems respond holistically to climate change with different pressures having additive, synergistic, or antagonistic interactions. The challenge is how to adapt the framework to manage aquatic systems in the context of climate change while maintaining focus on implementing measures to tackle key pressures. This paper examines potential approaches, including reassignment of waterbody type, quantifying the portion of Ecological Quality Ratio (EQR) driven by climate change, and creating an assessment module of climatic pressures and ecological responses. The overall purpose is to stimulate discussion and explore ways to incorporate climate change into the WFD structure.}, }
@article {pmid39405236, year = {2024}, author = {Santer, B}, title = {How Science Upstaged Climate Denial: A play celebrates the agreement that opened nations worldwide to accepting the science of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {331}, number = {4}, pages = {58}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican112024-rpItktUeumAFkDoTvJxUo}, pmid = {39405236}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39405235, year = {2024}, author = {Editors, T}, title = {Vote in November for Science: Kamala Harris has plans to improve health, boost the economy and mitigate climate change. Donald Trump has threats and a dangerous record.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {331}, number = {4}, pages = {56}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican112024-5YgImqHdG6rmUBPlrrmMCF}, pmid = {39405235}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; United States ; *Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid39403967, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, M and Sun, K and Jia, J and Wu, F and Gao, Y}, title = {Climate Change Drove the Decline in Yangtze Estuary Net Primary Production Over the Past Two Decades.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.4c07163}, pmid = {39403967}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Net primary productivity (NPP) is highly sensitive to multiple stressors under progressive and intensifying climate change and anthropogenic impacts. The importance of understanding spatiotemporal distribution patterns and the associated driving factors that govern estuary NPP is paramount for regional carbon (C) budget assessments. Using a combined remote sensing and machine learning (ML) approach, the average NPP of the Yangtze Estuarine-offshore continuum (YEOC) was measured at 273.19 ± 21.26 mgC m[-2] day[-1] over the past two decades. Temporally, NPP exhibited a significant downward trend between 2002 and 2022. Climate factors (climate fluctuations, sea level rise, and discharge) drove phytoplankton biomass (Chl-a) while light conditions (PAR and Kd490) affected photosynthesis rates. Together, they can explain 65% of the NPP variation. Anthropogenic disturbances (i.e., damming and nutrient emissions) were not significant. Additionally, changes in NPP decreased phytoplankton C sequestration rates from 11.9 to 10.4 Tg C year[-1], reducing the estuary's C sink capacity, which relies on biological C fixation. This study highlights the climate's influence on the spatiotemporal transformation of YEOC NPP while enhancing our understanding of the response of EOC C budgets to climate change and anthropogenic activities.}, }
@article {pmid39403260, year = {2024}, author = {Cai, H and Zhang, G}, title = {Predicting the Potential Distribution of Rare and Endangered Emmenopterys henryi in China Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {e70403}, pmid = {39403260}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change has a pivotal impact on the potential distribution of endangered and relic tree species. Probably due to unrepresentative sampling and single algorithm, at present, there are different views on the potential range of the endangered tree Emmenopterys henryi, endemic to China. Here, we first collated 612 occurrence records and 22 environmental variables including climate, topography, and soil. Combined the Biomod2 with MaxEnt, we then predicted its past, current, and future potential suitable area in China, and determined the key factors influencing its distribution. The ensemble model results showed that the main environmental variables affecting this species were the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO6), precipitation of warmest quarter (BIO18), and temperature seasonality (BIO4). Its current potential distribution area was 176.53 × 10[4] km[2], mainly concentrated in eastern, central, and southwestern China. Collectively, the suitable area of E. henryi would averagely decrease by 3.90% in all 16 future scenarios, with its centroid largely migrating northeastward. Our findings indicate that the endangered E. henryi covered 18 provinces in China, having a larger area than known. Moreover, climate change may have an adverse effect on its potential distribution. In addition, the ensemble model can produce more effective prediction outcomes than MaxEnt for such endemic tree species with large environmental range. We recommend increasing sample representativeness by analyzing the completeness properties of sample coverage, and simultaneously selecting appropriate algorithms to ensure the reliability of distribution prediction for endangered and relict tree species.}, }
@article {pmid39402050, year = {2024}, author = {Hunka, N and Duncanson, L and Armston, J and Dubayah, R and Healey, SP and Santoro, M and May, P and Araza, A and Bourgoin, C and Montesano, PM and Neigh, CSR and Grantham, H and Potapov, P and Turubanova, S and Tyukavina, A and Richter, J and Harris, N and Urbazaev, M and Pascual, A and Suarez, DR and Herold, M and Poulter, B and Wilson, SN and Grassi, G and Federici, S and Sanz, MJ and Melo, J}, title = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 forest biomass estimates from Earth Observation.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1127}, pmid = {39402050}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {80NSSC23K1255//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; 80NSSC21K0196//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; }, abstract = {Aboveground biomass density (AGBD) estimates from Earth Observation (EO) can be presented with the consistency standards mandated by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This article delivers AGBD estimates, in the format of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 values for natural forests, sourced from National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) and Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-2), and European Space Agency's (ESA's) Climate Change Initiative (CCI). It also provides the underlying classification used by the IPCC as geospatial layers, delineating global forests by ecozones, continents and status (primary, young (≤20 years) and old secondary (>20 years)). The approaches leverage complementary strengths of various EO-derived datasets that are compiled in an open-science framework through the Multi-mission Algorithm and Analysis Platform (MAAP). This transparency and flexibility enables the adoption of any new incoming datasets in the framework in the future. The EO-based AGBD estimates are expected to be an independent contribution to the IPCC Emission Factors Database in support of UNFCCC processes, and the forest classification expected to support the generation of other policy-relevant datasets while reflecting ongoing shifts in global forests with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39401971, year = {2024}, author = {Meherali, S and Aynalem, YA and Nisa, SU and Kennedy, M and Salami, B and Adjorlolo, S and Ali, P and Silva, KL and Aziato, L and Richter, S and Lassi, ZS}, title = {Impact of climate change on child outcomes: an evidence gap map review.}, journal = {BMJ paediatrics open}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {39401971}, issn = {2399-9772}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Child Health ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Child, Preschool ; Evidence Gaps ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and extreme weather events significantly threaten neonatal and child health. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current evidence on the impact of climate change on child health, using the evidence gap map (EGM) to address knowledge gaps and establish a foundation for evidence-based interventions and future research.<br><br>METHOD: From inception, academic databases (such as MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, CINAHL and Scopus) and grey literature were systematically searched. We included climate change-related studies involving children aged 0-5 worldwide. Covidence facilitated a rigorous screening process, and we conducted a critical appraisal. Two independent reviewers handled screening and data extraction. Eligible studies underwent coding and extraction using Evidence for Policy and Practice Information (EPPI) reviewer software. The EGM was constructed using EPPI Mapper, and comprehensive findings were presented through live links and figures.<br><br>RESULT: We identified 196 studies, comprising 59.2% children and 40.8% neonates, with diverse research approaches, including 94% quantitative studies. There has been a notable increase in research publications over the past 5 years. Evidence is heavily concentrated in Asia (93 studies) and Africa (47 studies). The most frequently studied exposures are those related to extreme climate events, followed by drought and floods. However, there are gaps in the study of extreme cold and storms. The significant outcomes comprised preterm birth (55 studies), low birth weight (27 studies), malnutrition (59 studies) and diarrhoeal diseases (28 studies). Evidence on mental health problems and congenital disabilities receives relatively less attention.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This EGM is crucial for researchers, policymakers and practitioners. It highlights knowledge gaps and guides future research to address the evolving threats of climate change to global child health.<br><br>TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: INPLASY202370086.}, }
@article {pmid39401032, year = {2024}, author = {Robinson, JM and Liddicoat, C and Sun, X and Ramesh, S and Hawken, S and Lee, K and Brame, J and Fickling, NW and Kuhn, E and Hayward, C and Deshmukh, S and Robinson, K and Cando-Dumancela, C and Breed, MF}, title = {The climate change-pollution-aerobiome nexus: A 'systems thinking' mini-review.}, journal = {Microbial biotechnology}, volume = {17}, number = {10}, pages = {e70018}, pmid = {39401032}, issn = {1751-7915}, support = {UOWX2101//New Zealand Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment/ ; DP210101932//Australian Research Council/ ; LP190100051//Australian Research Council/ ; LP190100484//Australian Research Council/ ; 32361143523//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 322GJHZ2022028FN//International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Microbiota ; Air Pollution ; Bacteria/metabolism/genetics/classification ; Ecosystem ; Air Microbiology ; Fungi ; }, abstract = {The interrelationship between climate change, pollution and the aerobiome (the microbiome of the air) is a complex ecological dynamic with profound implications for human and ecosystem health. This mini-review explores the multifaceted relationships among these factors. By synthesising existing research and integrating interdisciplinary perspectives, we examine the mechanisms driving interactions within the climate change-pollution-aerobiome nexus. We also explore synergistic and cascading effects and potential impacts on human health (including both communicable and non-communicable diseases) and that of wider ecosystems. Based on our mini-review results, climate change influences air pollution and, independently, air pollution affects the composition, diversity and activity of the aerobiome. However, we apply a 'systems thinking' approach and create a set of systems diagrams to show that climate change likely influences the aerobiome (including bacteria and fungi) via climate change-pollution interactions in complex ways. Due to the inherent complexity of these systems, we emphasise the importance of holistic and/or interdisciplinary approaches and collaborative efforts in understanding this nexus to safeguard planetary health in an era of rapid environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid39400973, year = {2024}, author = {Buonaiuto, DM}, title = {How Climate Change May Impact Plant Reproduction and Fitness by Altering the Temporal Separation of Male and Female Flowering.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {e17533}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17533}, pmid = {39400973}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Flowers/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Reproduction ; Temperature ; Seasons ; Plants ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; }, abstract = {The temporal separation of male and female flowering-known as dichogamy-is a widespread adaptation across the plant kingdom that increases reproductive success and enhances plant fitness. Differences in timing between male and female flowering can be highly sensitive to environmental variation-and with widespread evidence of shifts in seasonal timing of flowering (i.e., phenology) due to anthropogenic warming-climate change may alter the sequences of male and female flowering for a diversity of taxa around the globe. However, we currently lack a broad understanding of both the extent to which climate change may alter patterns of dichogamy and the potential implications of these shifts for plant reproduction. Here I present evidence that links variation in dichogamy to variation in temperature for a variety of plant taxa. I synthesize the limited number of studies that have investigated shifts in dichogamy specifically in the context of climate change, and detail the physiological, genetic, and developmental factors that control the relative timing of male and female flowering. The literature indicates that dichogamy is highly plastic and sensitive to temperature variation. Plasticity in dichogamy is observed across species with different sexual systems and growth habits, and in both female-first and male-first flowering taxa, but at present, no clear patterns of dichogamy shifts related to these associated traits are discernible. Together, these lines of evidence suggest that sequences of male and female flowering are likely to shift with climate change. However, more research is needed to better understand and predict the ecological consequences of shifting patterns of dichogamy in the context of global change.}, }
@article {pmid39400452, year = {2024}, author = {Gallego-Tévar, B and Gil-Martínez, M and Perea, A and Pérez-Ramos, IM and Gómez-Aparicio, L}, title = {Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Pathogens on Plant Performance: A Global Meta-Analysis.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {e17535}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17535}, pmid = {39400452}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {CGL2014-56739-R//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; RTI2018-094394-B-I00//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Plant Diseases/microbiology ; Plants/microbiology ; Plant Development ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; }, abstract = {Plant health is increasingly threatened by abiotic and biotic stressors linked to anthropogenic global change. These stressors are frequently studied in isolation. However, they might have non-additive (antagonistic or synergistic) interactive effects that affect plant communities in unexpected ways. We conducted a global meta-analysis to summarize existing evidence on the joint effects of climate change (drought and warming) and biotic attack (pathogens) on plant performance. We also investigated the effect of drought and warming on pathogen performance, as this information is crucial for a mechanistic interpretation of potential indirect effects of climate change on plant performance mediated by pathogens. The final databases included 1230 pairwise cases extracted from 117 recently published scientific articles (from 2006) on a global scale. We found that the combined negative effects of drought and pathogens on plant growth were lower than expected based on their main effects, supporting the existence of antagonistic interactions. Thus, the larger the magnitude of the drought, the lower the pathogen capacity to limit plant growth. On the other hand, the combination of warming and pathogens caused larger plant damage than expected, supporting the existence of synergistic interactions. Our results on the effects of drought and warming on pathogens revealed a limitation of their growth rates and abundance in vitro but an improvement under natural conditions, where multiple factors operate across the microbiome. Further research on the impact of climate change on traits explicitly defining the infective ability of pathogens would enhance the assessment of its indirect effects on plants. The evaluated plant and pathogen responses were conditioned by the intensity of drought or warming and by moderator categorical variables defining the pathosystems. Overall, our findings reveal the need to incorporate the joint effect of climatic and biotic components of global change into predictive models of plant performance to identify non-additive interactions.}, }
@article {pmid39399895, year = {2024}, author = {Mertens, JE}, title = {The Influence of Climate Change on Vector-Borne Diseases in a Wilderness Medicine Context.}, journal = {Wilderness &amp; environmental medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {10806032241283704}, doi = {10.1177/10806032241283704}, pmid = {39399895}, issn = {1545-1534}, abstract = {The imminent climate crisis has been labeled as the biggest health threat humanity must deal with. Vector-borne disease distribution and transmission as well as the population at risk are influenced to a great degree by environmental and climactic factors affecting both the vectors themselves and the causative pathogens. Paired with an increase in worldwide travel, urbanization, and globalization, along with population displacements and migration, elucidating the effects of anthropogenic climate change on these illnesses is therefore of the essence to stave off potential negative sequelae. Outcomes on different vector-borne diseases will be diverse, but for many of them, these developments will result in a distribution shift or expansion with the possibility of (re-)introduction of vector and pathogen species in previously nonendemic areas. The consequence will be a growing likelihood for novel human, vector, and pathogen interactions with an increased risk for infection, morbidity, and mortality. Wilderness medicine professionals commonly work in close relationship to the natural environment and therefore will experience these alterations most strongly in their practice. Hence, this article attempts to bring awareness to the subject at hand in a wilderness medicine context, with a focus on malaria, the most burdensome of arthropod-borne diseases. For prevention of the potentially dire consequences on human health induced by climate change, concerted and intensified efforts to reduce the burning of fossil fuels and thus greenhouse gas emissions will be imperative on a global scale.}, }
@article {pmid39399659, year = {2024}, author = {Gertrudix, M and Carbonell-Alcocer, A and Arcos, R and Arribas, CM and Codesido-Linares, V and Benítez-Aranda, N}, title = {Disinformation as an obstructionist strategy in climate change mitigation: a review of the scientific literature for a systemic understanding of the phenomenon.}, journal = {Open research Europe}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {169}, pmid = {39399659}, issn = {2732-5121}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This study examines the scientific misinformation about climate change, in particular obstructionist strategies. The study aims to understand their impact on public perception and climate policy and emphasises the need for a systemic understanding that includes the financial, economic and political roots.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted using the PRISMA 2020 model. The sample consisted of 75 articles published between 2019 and 2023, sourced from Web of Science, Scopus and Google Scholar. Methodological triangulation was performed to improve the analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: The results show that technological approaches to misinformation detection, such as immunisation and fact-checking, are widely used. However, few studies look in depth at the operational structures that support systematic disinformation.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study emphasises the urgent need to expand and deepen research on climate disinformation and argues for more global, comparative and adequately funded studies. It emphasises the importance of addressing the systemic complexity of disinformation and integrating different theoretical and methodological approaches. This will help to develop effective measures against hidden networks of influence and mitigate their disruptive effects. The research findings are relevant for policymakers, scientists, academics, the media and the public and will help to improve strategies to combat climate misinformation and promote science-based climate action.}, }
@article {pmid39398075, year = {2024}, author = {Cipriani, E and Gemignani, A and Menicucci, D}, title = {Awareness of everyday effects of climate change: The climate change perceptual awareness scale (CCPAS).}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {19}, pages = {e38461}, pmid = {39398075}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change is intrinsically complex and demands a certain degree of abstraction. However, different individuals report a wide range and degree of tangible and sensory experiences of climate change. As perceptual and sensory awareness of climate change has important consequences for the promotion of sustainable behaviors, pro-climate policies, and clinical interventions for climate-related disorders such as climate anxiety, new specific tools are required: herein we detail the development of a psychometric measure of perceptual awareness of climate change, as well as provide evidence for its discriminant, convergent, and predictive validity for sustainable behaviors. The administration of this scale on a representative sample of the UK population (Study 1) yielded a 4-factor structure, with items measuring perception of temperature changes and those measuring perception of humidity changes loading on separate factors, and two additional factors identifying the awareness of own feelings and perception of media attention on climate change. A second administration (Study 2) to an independent sample gathered from the Italian population supports the reliability of this factorial structure. As the rising field of climate neuroscience starts to investigate the determinants of perceptions of climate change, this novel scale will allow assessing the perceptual features affecting awareness of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39396784, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, S and Liu, Y and Xing, Q and Li, Y and Tian, H and Luo, Y and Ito, SI and Tian, Y}, title = {Climate change drives fish communities: Changing multiple facets of fish biodiversity in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176854}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176854}, pmid = {39396784}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global marine biodiversity is experiencing significant alterations due to climate change. Incorporating phylogenetic and functional diversity may provide novel insights into these impacts. This study used an ensemble model approach (random forest and boosted regression tree), to predict the habitat distribution of 47 fish species in the Northwestern Pacific under contemporary (2000-2014) and future scenarios (2040-2050, 2090-2100). We first examined the relationship between eleven functional traits and habitat changes, predicting the spatial distribution of functional traits within fish communities. A significant correlation was observed between temperature preference and habitat changes, highlighting the vulnerability of cold-water species and potential advantages for warm-water species in the future. Moreover, fish communities exhibited a spatial gradient distribution with southern regions characterized by shorter-lived and earlier maturity, contrasting with longer-lived and later maturity species in the north. Secondly, to assess the impact of climate change on marine biodiversity, we explored the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity under contemporary and future scenarios, revealing higher indices in the East China Sea (ECS) and the coastal sea of Japan, with the Taiwan Strait emerging as a contemporary biodiversity hotspot. In future scenarios, the three biodiversity indices would decline in the Yellow Sea and ECS, but increase in the sea beyond the continental shelf, coastal sea of Hokkaido, and Sea of Okhotsk. Lastly, we explored processes and mechanisms in the change of community composition. By quantifying β-diversity, we identified species loss (nestedness) as the primary driver of fish community change by 2040-2050, with species replacement (turnover) predicted to become dominant in the far future. Our results explore the potential changes in multiple facets of fish biodiversity, providing crucial insights for policymakers aiming to protect fish resources and biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid39394377, year = {2024}, author = {Jovanović, I and Frantová, N and Alba-Mejía, JE and Porčová, L and Psota, V and Asszonyi, J and Cerkal, R and Středa, T}, title = {Role of total polyphenol content in seed germination characteristics of spring barley varieties amidst climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {23818}, pmid = {39394377}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {QL24010109//MZE-RO1923, Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic/ ; }, mesh = {*Hordeum/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Germination/physiology ; *Polyphenols/analysis/metabolism ; *Seeds/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The amount of total polyphenol content (TPC) in the grain could provide insights into the conditions during maturation and might also serve as an indicator of the grain's ability to germinate in the malting process or as seeds in the field. Varieties with higher natural TPC content might exhibit better germination parameters both in the field and in the malt house. This study investigates the relationship between TPC and seed germination characteristics i.e. seed vigour in four spring barley varieties over two years, considering diverse environmental conditions and exposure to drought conditions. The evaluation of seed germination characteristics in barley, with a focus on the root length and average diameter under drought conditions (-0.5 MPa) and suboptimal temperature (10 °C), was conducted. Drought conditions were induced using polyethylene glycol (PEG 6000). After durations of seven and fourteen days, the germinated seeds from the Petri dishes were scanned and subjected to analysis using WinRHIZO software following the metrics: Len 7, Len 14 (root length after seven and fourteen days in cm) and AvgD 7, AvgD 14 (root diameter after seven and fourteen days in mm). The findings support our initial hypothesis, indicating a variety-specific relationship between seed germination characteristics and increased TPC, where higher germination parameters might be associated with elevated TPC levels in some barley varieties.}, }
@article {pmid39393372, year = {2024}, author = {Semenza, JC and Rocklöv, J}, title = {Co-benefits of climate change mitigation for infectious disease control.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {e720}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00237-7}, pmid = {39393372}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Communicable Disease Control/methods ; }, }
@article {pmid39393366, year = {2024}, author = {Ford, N and Hammill, A}, title = {Measuring and adapting to climate change in HIV programmes.}, journal = {The lancet. HIV}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2352-3018(24)00231-5}, pmid = {39393366}, issn = {2352-3018}, }
@article {pmid39392471, year = {2024}, author = {Shin, N and Saitoh, TM and Takasu, H and Morimoto, H}, title = {Influence of climate change on flowering phenology of Yoshino cherry at its southern distribution limit.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39392471}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {To clarify the influence of climate change on the flowering phenology of Yoshino cherry at its southern distribution limit, we examined the relationship between cold exposure for endodormancy release (chilling requirement) and heat requirement for bud growth on Hachijojima Island, Japan, from 1948 to 2024. Cold exposure and heat requirement had a significant relationship approximated by linear or log-linear functions. In years with less cold exposure, the first flowering dates were much later than normal, in accordance with the higher heat requirement. Our results indicate that the variation in the balance between cold exposure and heat requirement depending on the pattern of annual air temperature change is likely to vary the first flowering date greatly at the distribution limit of Yoshino cherry.}, }
@article {pmid39392090, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, J and Jiang, K and Li, Y and Wang, S and Bu, W}, title = {Climate change effects on the diversity and distribution of soybean true bugs pests.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {80}, number = {10}, pages = {5157-5167}, doi = {10.1002/ps.8243}, pmid = {39392090}, issn = {1526-4998}, mesh = {*Glycine max/parasitology/growth &amp; development ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; Heteroptera/physiology/growth &amp; development ; Animal Distribution ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and pests are two major factors in the reduction of global soybean yields. The diversity and geographic distribution of soybean true bug pests vary across soybean production areas worldwide, and climate change impacts are different across species and regions. Therefore, we integrated spatial and temporal predictions at the global scale to predict the impact of global warming on the distribution of 84 soybean true bug pests by the maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) under present (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060) scenarios. We produced an ensemble projection of the potential distribution of pests and crop production areas to estimate how and where climate warming will augment the threat of soybean true bug pests to soybean production areas.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results indicated that Southeast North America, Central South America, Europe and East Asia were the regions with the higher richness of soybean true bug and the most vulnerable areas to invasion threats. Climate change would promote the expansion of the distribution range and facilitate pest movement pole wards, affecting more soybean cultivated areas located in mid-latitudes. Moreover, species with different distribution patterns responded differently to climate change in that large-ranged species tended to increase in occupancy over time, whereas small-ranged species tended to decrease.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This result indicates that some pests that have not yet become notable may have the chance to develop into serious pests in the future due to the expansion of their geographical range. Our findings highlight that soybean cultivated regions at mid-latitudes would face general infestations from soybean true bug pests under global warming. These results will further facilitate the formulation of adaptation planning to minimize local environmental impacts in the future. &#xa9; 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid39391950, year = {2024}, author = {Pollard, KJ and Davis, C and Davis, B and Donohue, D and Wong, W and Saad, A and Merlo, G and Pathak, N}, title = {Health disparities and climate change in the Marshall Islands.}, journal = {Annals of medicine}, volume = {56}, number = {1}, pages = {2411601}, doi = {10.1080/07853890.2024.2411601}, pmid = {39391950}, issn = {1365-2060}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Micronesia/epidemiology ; Health Status Disparities ; Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology ; Healthcare Disparities ; Sea Level Rise ; }, abstract = {The small island nations, territories, and states dotting the Pacific are among the most disproportionately affected populations worldwide in the face of climate change. Sea level rise coupled with increased tropical storms contribute to seawater incursion, flooding, personal injury, trauma, and death. They face an existential threat due to the consequences of global warming, specifically ice melt resulting in sea level rise, repercussions for which they are not historically culpable. Along with these environmental threats, Pacific Island communities are further burdened with high rates of adverse health conditions such as diabetes and obesity yet have limited healthcare resources due to minimal economic development. The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) has one of the highest amputation rates worldwide due to advanced diabetes from lifestyle factors, limited healthcare infrastructure, financial disparities, and a culturally based hesitancy to seek medical attention, all of which lead to an increased incidence of diabetic complications. Challenges posed by non-communicable chronic diseases include diabetes and infectious diseases like tuberculosis, hepatitis, malaria, and Zika. Just as crucial to the narrative of the Marshallese people is a fundamental indigenous knowledge of their surroundings and an inseparable relationship to the environment, aquatic animals, and communities around them, denoting a holistic living system. Though the outlook is precarious, solutions centering on lifestyle interventions that are informed by Indigenous cultural strengths can provide a responsive framework and a ray of hope, offering potential solutions to these two. This short perspective highlights the RMI as a case study of the challenges the Pacific Island nations bear, from a legacy of annexation to the modern threat of climate change, compounded by health disparities.}, }
@article {pmid39390883, year = {2024}, author = {Santra, G}, title = {Heat Stress Nephropathy: An Emerging Epidemic of Global Warming.}, journal = {The Journal of the Association of Physicians of India}, volume = {72}, number = {10}, pages = {110}, doi = {10.59556/japi.72.0686}, pmid = {39390883}, issn = {0004-5772}, mesh = {Humans ; *Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology/complications ; *Global Warming ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/epidemiology/etiology ; Dehydration/etiology/epidemiology ; Epidemics ; }, abstract = {Climate change has led to global warming since the last century, which has adverse health consequences. Heat stress nephropathy (HSN) is such a disorder that is emerging as an epidemic because of heat exposure, dehydration, and shortage of drinking water. HSN has been suspected to occur in different parts of the world. Many cases of chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology (CKDu) such as Mesoamerican nephropathy and Sri Lankan nephropathy are now being considered as HSN. Influences of agrochemicals (e.g., pesticides), heavy metals (e.g., cadmium, lead, arsenic, and fluoride), and genetic polymorphism were suspected for causation of CKDu in those cases, but results were inconsistent in different studies from different locations. Drinking water with high silica and strontium was also found in a region with high CKDu in South India.[1] Malnutrition and infections such as leptospirosis can also cause CKDu. It is not clear whether CKDu in different hot locations studied represents a single disease or a group of different disorders, but the common factors found are heat and related dehydration. However, combined effects may also be possible. Dehydration from heat stress increases toxin exposure of different organs because of higher blood and urine concentration, as chronically dehydrated patients may not excrete toxic substances effectively. Also, the wells and water reservoirs are more concentrated with toxic substances because of hot weather due to evaporation.}, }
@article {pmid39390569, year = {2024}, author = {Moraca, S and Indinnimeo, L and De Nuntiis, P}, title = {Correction: Risk perceptions of Italian paediatricians for the impact of climate change on children's health.}, journal = {Italian journal of pediatrics}, volume = {50}, number = {1}, pages = {211}, doi = {10.1186/s13052-024-01787-7}, pmid = {39390569}, issn = {1824-7288}, }
@article {pmid39390044, year = {2024}, author = {Stollberg, J and Bogdan, D and Jonas, E}, title = {Author Correction: Empowering the younger generation increases their willingness for intergenerational reconciliation in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {23707}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-024-74254-2}, pmid = {39390044}, issn = {2045-2322}, }
@article {pmid39389592, year = {2024}, author = {Kotcher, J and Miller, J and Mildenberger, M and Maibach, E}, title = {Climate change, health, and the US election.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {387}, number = {}, pages = {q2183}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q2183}, pmid = {39389592}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Politics ; Humans ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid39389591, year = {2024}, author = {Alfvén, T and Bhutta, ZA}, title = {Nurturing children and protecting our planet from climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {387}, number = {}, pages = {q2056}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q2056}, pmid = {39389591}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Child ; Global Health ; }, }
@article {pmid39387729, year = {2024}, author = {, }, title = {Responding to the Impact of Climate Change on Adolescent and Young Adult Health: A Position Paper of the Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine and the International Association for Adolescent Health.}, journal = {The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jadohealth.2024.09.015}, pmid = {39387729}, issn = {1879-1972}, abstract = {The Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine and the International Association for Adolescent Health recognize that climate change impacts multiple dimensions of health and well-being for adolescents and young adults. According to the World Health Organization, climate change is one of the top 10 health threats facing humanity. No aspect of adolescent health is spared from the consequences of climate change: food and housing insecurity, heat-related morbidity and mortality, water-borne diseases, infectious diseases, including sexually transmitted infections and HIV, mental health disorders, gender-based violence, conflict, internal displacement, and migration are all impacted. Vulnerable populations, such as adolescents and young adults, and those living in lower- to middle-income countries and environmental justice communities, are the ones whose health will be most affected. The Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine and the International Association for Adolescent Health call for urgent action in alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on the Rights of the Child to avert the irreversible consequences of climate change. Health professionals and health-care organizations can and should help lead global climate action along with youth, supporting mitigation and adaptation strategies that protect young people. Adolescent health professionals and organizations must advocate for climate justice and equitable resources, urge health systems to mitigate their adverse impacts on the environment, advocate for health organizations to focus on green investments, be leaders in climate education of the next generation of adolescent health professionals, and focus research on equitable strategies to reduce climate harms.}, }
@article {pmid39389572, year = {2024}, author = {Franco Silva, M and Favarão Leão, AL and O'Connor, &#xc1; and Hallal, PC and Ding, D and Hinckson, E and Benmarhnia, T and Siqueira Reis, R}, title = {Understanding the Relationships Between Physical Activity and Climate Change: An Umbrella Review.}, journal = {Journal of physical activity &amp; health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-13}, doi = {10.1123/jpah.2024-0284}, pmid = {39389572}, issn = {1543-5474}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Physical activity is crucial for maintaining health and preventing chronic diseases. However, climate conditions can impact physical activity patterns, and conversely, physical activity can impact climate change. This umbrella review aims to summarize the existing evidence regarding the relationships between physical activity and climate change, as revealed in previous reviews.<br><br>METHODS: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were analyzed. Searches were conducted across GreenFILE, PubMed, and Web of Science databases for peer-reviewed articles published in English. A 2-stage independent screening process was conducted, and methodological quality was assessed using the JBI framework. Standardized data extraction methods were then applied.<br><br>RESULTS: Out of 1292 articles retrieved, 7 met all eligibility criteria and were included in the review. Three articles examined physical activity as a primary exposure, 3 focused on the impacts of climate change, and one considered both physical activity and climate change as primary exposures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Findings reveal an interplay between climate change and physical activity. While rising temperatures may prompt outdoor activities up to a certain temperature threshold, air pollution and extreme heat can have harmful effects. Active transportation and improved logistics around large-scale sporting events can mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but transportation systems linked to sports venues may increase emissions. Research on the reciprocal relationship between climate change and physical activity domains, and integrating the community into climate discussions, is crucial for equity, especially for marginalized communities. Incorporating climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in physical activity infrastructure to minimize environmental impacts is critical.}, }
@article {pmid39389244, year = {2024}, author = {Kim, DH and Lee, H and Kim, K and Kim, S and Kim, JH and Ko, YW and Hawes, I and Oh, JE and Kim, JT}, title = {Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Antarctic Marine Environment: The Influence Impacts of Human Activity, Regulations, and Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {125100}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2024.125100}, pmid = {39389244}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {This study investigates the presence, distribution, and potential impacts of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) on the Antarctic marine environment. The analysis results from the King Sejong Station, the Jang Bogo Station, and Cape Evans revealed the highest concentrations of both PFASs and HBCDs at King Sejong Station, indicating the significant influence of human activity. Short-chain perfluorocarboxylic acids (PFCAs) dominated the seawater samples, with PFPeA at the highest concentration (0.076 ng/L) at King Sejong Station, whereas perfluorosulfonic acids (PFSAs) were prevalent in the sediments, with PFHxS reaching 0.985 ng/g. Total PFASs in benthos ranged from N.D. to 2.40 ng/g WW across all stations. This indicated the effects of long-range transport and glacial meltwater. α-HBCD was the most common diastereomer in benthos samples, detected in 58.3% of samples, suggesting its selective persistency. Although risk quotient analysis revealed low immediate risks to lower-trophic organisms, potential risks remain owing to their persistence and bioaccumulation potential. Contaminant patterns changed after regulations: perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) levels decreased, unregulated PFASs increased, HBCD stereoisomer ratios shifted towards α-HBCD dominance, and overall HBCD concentrations declined. Widespread persistence of regulated substances was observed in Antarctic environments, highlighting the need for comprehensive and long-term monitoring strategies. This study provides essential baseline data on contaminant distributions across the Southern Ocean, contributing to our understanding of emerging pollutants in Antarctic regions and informing future environmental protection efforts.}, }
@article {pmid39388505, year = {2024}, author = {Kaya, L and Keles, E and Baydili, KN and Kaya, Z and Kumru, P}, title = {Impact of Climate Change Education on Pregnant Women's Anxiety and Awareness.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13455}, pmid = {39388505}, issn = {1525-1446}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of climate change education on pregnant women's climate change awareness and anxiety.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: Quasi-experimental research with pre- and post-test design.<br><br>METHODS: This study was conducted among pregnant women who visited a tertiary maternity hospital between April and June 2023 to assess climate change awareness, perception, knowledge, behavioral and policy expectations, and anxiety before and after the introduction of climate change education. The first phase of the study was conducted by distributing a set of questions related to sociodemographics and completing the Climate Change Awareness Scale and the Climate Change Worry Scale, followed by climate change education where pregnant women were exposed to a brochure entitled "Pregnancy and Climate Change". After the intervention, pregnant women were assessed using the same questionnaire.<br><br>RESULTS: There was a significant decrease in pregnant women's anxiety regarding climate change (p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001). Participants' awareness (p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001), perception (p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001), knowledge (p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001), and policy expectations regarding climate change significantly increased (p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001), while their anxiety levels decreased (p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001).<br><br>CONCLUSION: The study suggests that climate change education may reduce climate change anxiety among pregnant women while also enhancing their awareness, and improving their perceptions, knowledge, behaviors, and policy expectations about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39386276, year = {2024}, author = {Ethier, I and Sandal, S and Tarakji, AR and Finkle, SN and Kahlon, B and Pederson, K and Samanta, R and Stigant, C}, title = {Climate Change and Environmentally Sustainable Kidney Care in Canada: A Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Survey of Kidney Care Providers.}, journal = {Canadian journal of kidney health and disease}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {20543581241287286}, pmid = {39386276}, issn = {2054-3581}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change impacts health and threatens the stability of care delivery systems, while healthcare is mobilizing to reduce its significant environmental impact.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) about climate change among Canadian kidney care providers.<br><br>An electronic KAP survey, created by the Canadian Society of Nephrology-Sustainable Nephrology Action Planning committee, was distributed to kidney care providers across Canada, from March to April 2023.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 516 people responded to the survey. Most respondents (79%) identified as women; 83% were aged 30 to 59 years. Nurses and nephrologists made up 44% and 23% of respondents, respectively. About half of the participants felt informed about climate change to an average degree. Most respondents (71%; 349/495 and 62%; 300/489) were either extremely or very concerned about climate change and waste generated in their kidney care program, respectively. The vast majority of respondents (89%; 441/495) reported taking steps to lower their personal carbon footprint. People who felt more informed about climate change presented higher degrees of concern. Similarly, both those who felt more informed and those who reported higher degrees of concern about climate change were more likely to take steps to reduce their carbon footprint. Over 80% of respondents (314/386) were at least moderately interested in learning sessions about environmentally sustainable initiatives in care.<br><br>LIMITATIONS: This survey is at risk of social acceptability, representative, and subjective bias. Overrepresentation from Quebec and British Columbia, as well as the majority of respondents identifying as women and working in academic centers, may affect generalizability of the findings.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Most kidney care providers who responded to this survey are informed and concerned about climate change, and their knowledge is directly associated with attitude and practices. This indicates that educational initiatives to increase awareness and knowledge on climate change will likely lead to practice changes.}, }
@article {pmid39385840, year = {2024}, author = {Bai, X and Zhang, P and Cao, X and Zhang, D and Yang, Z and Dong, X and Wang, S and Li, W and Xiong, L}, title = {Incorporating Implicit Information to Disentangle the Impacts of Hydropower Dams and Climate Change on Basin-Scale Fish Habitat Distribution.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {e70412}, pmid = {39385840}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The loss of freshwater fish habitats, exacerbated by climate change and dam constructions, poses a critical environmental concern. The upper Yangtze River basin, noted for its abundant fish fauna and concentrated dam development, serves as a crucial locale for investigating the impacts of climate shifts and dam construction. This study aims to disentangle the impacts of hydroelectric dams and climate change on fish habitat distribution by analyzing species presence data across different periods. Species distribution models were constructed using Maxent for Coreius guichenoti (a warm-water endangered fish) and Schizopygopsis malacanthus (a cold-water endangered fish). The model accuracy was assessed using the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic. Habitat distribution modeling and prediction for the pre-dam period (1970-2000) and post-dam period (2001-2020), as well as future climate change under two shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios, were conducted. The impacts of climate change and dam construction on the habitat suitability of two fish species were quantified. The results revealed dam construction predominantly diminished habitat suitability and range, with high-suitability habitats in the post-dam period decreasing by 56.3% (720.18 km) and 67.0% (1665.52 km) for the two fishes, respectively. Climate change would enhance the habitat suitability of Coreius guichenoti, while it would decrease the habitat suitability of Schizopygopsis malacanthus. The impact of dam construction is greater that of climate change for them. This study underscores the profound impacts of dam construction on fish habitats, particularly for cold-water species, and highlights the critical need for habitat restoration in sustainable hydropower development. Our method of disentangling these factors also provides a new approach to evaluating environmental impacts in large river basins.}, }
@article {pmid39385058, year = {2024}, author = {Mengis, N}, title = {Overshooting global-warming limits is a risky idea.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {634}, number = {8033}, pages = {299-300}, pmid = {39385058}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Dangerous Behavior ; *Environmental Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Risk-Taking ; }, }
@article {pmid39384294, year = {2024}, author = {Piatek, SJ and Haines, A and Larson, HJ}, title = {We need to tackle the growing threat of mis- and disinformation about climate change and health.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {387}, number = {}, pages = {q2187}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q2187}, pmid = {39384294}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Global Health ; }, }
@article {pmid39384123, year = {2024}, author = {Cloutier, A and Chan, DTC and Poon, ESK and Sin, SYW}, title = {The genetic consequences of historic climate change on the contemporary population structure of a widespread temperate North American songbird.}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {108216}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2024.108216}, pmid = {39384123}, issn = {1095-9513}, abstract = {Studies of widely distributed species can inform our understanding of how past demographic events tied to historic glaciation and ongoing population genetic processes interact to shape contemporaneous patterns of biodiversity at a continental scale. In this study, we used whole-genome resequencing to investigate the current population structure and genetic signatures of past demographic events in the widespread migratory American goldfinch (Spinus tristis). Phylogenetic relationships inferred from whole mitochondrial genomes were poorly resolved. In contrast, a genome-wide panel of > 4.5 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) strongly supported the existence of eastern and western populations separated by western mountain ranges and additional population structuring within the western clade. Demographic modeling estimated that the eastern and western populations diverged approximately one million years ago, and both populations experienced subsequent population bottlenecks during the last glacial period. Species distribution models showed a severe contraction of suitable habitat for the American goldfinch during this period, with predicted discontinuities that are consistent with multiple, isolated glacial refugia that coincide with present-day population structure. Low overall genetic differentiation between the eastern and western populations (FST ∼ 0.01) suggests ongoing gene flow accompanied divergence, and individuals with admixed genomic signatures were sampled along a potential contact zone. Nevertheless, outlier SNPs were identified near genes associated with feather color, song, and migratory behavior and provide strong candidates for further study of the mechanisms underlying reproductive isolation and speciation in birds.}, }
@article {pmid39383956, year = {2024}, author = {Sun, Y and Xu, Z and He, M and Alessi, DS and Tsang, DCW}, title = {Unlocking the solution-phase molecular transformation of biochar during intensive rainfall events: Implications for the long-term carbon cycle under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176708}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176708}, pmid = {39383956}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The unclear turnover of soluble and solid phases of biochar during increasingly severe climate change (e.g., intensive rainfall) raised questions about the carbon stability of biochar in soil. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the molecular-level transformations occurring in both the soluble and solid phases of biochar subjected to prolonged wet-dry cycles with simulated rainwater. Biochar properties, including surface functionality and carbon texture, greatly affected the transformation route and led to a distinct stability variation. The rich alkyl -CH3 on the low-temperature biochar (450 °C) was oxidized to hydroxymethyl -CH2OH or formyl -CHO, and the ester -COOC- or peptide -CONHC- bonds were fragmented in the meantime, causing the release of protein- or lipid-like organic carbon and the declined carbon stability (Æ, tested by H2O2 oxidation, from 60.1 % to 53.2 %). After a high-temperature (750 °C) pyrolysis process, only oxidation of the surface -OH with limited bond breaking occurred after rainwater elution, presenting a marginal composition difference with constant stability. However, the fragile carbon nature of biochar, caused by CO2 activation, led to enhanced fragmentation, oxidation, and hydration, resulting in the release of tannin-like organic carbon, which compromises the carbon storage (Æ decreased from 81.2 % to 73.0 %). Our findings evaluated the critical transformation of biochar during intensive rainfall, offering crucial insights for designing sustainable biochar and achieving carbon neutrality.}, }
@article {pmid39383398, year = {2024}, author = {Suarez-Contento, KY and Teles, CB and Alves-Ferreira, G and Martins, MLL and Athiê-Souza, SM}, title = {Projected effects of climate change on the potential distribution range of Manihot species endemic to Northeast Brazil.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {96}, number = {suppl 1}, pages = {e20231211}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202420231211}, pmid = {39383398}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Brazil ; *Biodiversity ; *Manihot/classification ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global concern, with far-reaching implications for biodiversity and ecosystems. Understanding impact on species distribution is crucial for effective conservation strategies. The aims of this study were to evaluate the projected effects of climate change on the potential distribution of Manihot species endemic to Northeast Brazil and estimate the presence of climate suitability within protected areas in the future. We used ecological niche models to assess the potential distribution of 11 endemic species, providing predictions of current and future scenarios using an optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenario. The results revealed that in the optimistic scenario, 45% of the species may experience a partial reduction in their potential distribution range by 2100, and this percentage increases to 54% in the pessimistic scenario. Other species, on the other hand, will increase their potential distribution. The climatically suitable area for most species will be inserted in some protected areas, but species with limited current distribution and decreasing potential range must be prioritized for conservation. This study provides valuable information about the future potential distribution of endemic species of Manihot.}, }
@article {pmid39382967, year = {2024}, author = {Groothof, D and Post, A and Shehab, NBN and Bakker, SJL and Gans, ROB}, title = {Adapting Clinical and Research Practice to Global Warming: Physiology-Based Interim Recommendations for Managing Hypertonicity Risk During Extreme Heat.}, journal = {Kidney360}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.34067/KID.0000000617}, pmid = {39382967}, issn = {2641-7650}, }
@article {pmid39382808, year = {2024}, author = {Yeboah, SIK and Antwi-Agyei, P and Kabo-Bah, AT and Ackerson, NOB}, title = {Modeling the fate and transport of E. coli pathogens in the Tano River Basin of Ghana under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39382808}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Surface water contamination by fecal matter threatens human health due to human and biological processes within a watershed, making socioeconomic development crucial for predicting and improving microbiological water quality. Consequently, climate change alters climatic parameters that affect flow regimes and the movement and fate of microorganisms. This study assessed the fate and transport of microbial Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations and their sources in the Tano River Basin in Ghana. Additionally, the study predicted future E. coli concentrations using climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s most recent representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Scenario_1 featured planned urbanization, enhanced manure and wastewater treatment, moderate population, livestock density growth, and climate change. Scenario_2 involved higher population growth, minimal improvements in wastewater management, zero manure treatment, higher livestock population, urbanization, and substantial climate change. Calibration and validation using E. coli data from June 2022 to April 2023 showed good agreement with observed concentrations (R[2], 0.75 and 0.89; NSE, 0.69 and 0.68; PBIAS, 3.4 and 1.9, respectively). The measured and modeled E. coli concentrations were high, with the highest recording at 2.39 log cfu/100 ml during the rainy season. The study finds that the main causes of E. coli concentrations (44%) are point sources, primarily from human feces and livestock manure, followed by upstream pollution (34%) and non-point sources (22%). Non-point sources became the predominant contributors during periods of maximum discharge due to runoff from land and the dilution of point sources. Again Scenario_1 E. coli dropped to 68% and 97% of reference point levels by the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. E. coli concentrations decrease even more with subsequent treatment, such as tertiary treatment, manure treatment, or both. The scenario analysis demonstrates the potential for E. coli reduction through wastewater and manure treatment, driven by socioeconomic and climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid39381897, year = {2024}, author = {Aidoo, OF and Amaro, GC and Souza, PGC and Picanço, MC and Awuah-Mensah, KA and Silva, RSD}, title = {Climate change impacts on worldwide ecological niche and invasive potential of Sternochetus mangiferae.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.8465}, pmid = {39381897}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001/ ; //Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (CNPq)/ ; //Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG)/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Present climate studies on invasive species imply that climate change will alter the habitat suitability of invasive pests, especially given the projected rise in average global temperatures by the end of 2100. However, globally, limited information exists on the habitat suitability of the mango stone weevil, Sternochetus mangiferae Fabricius, which impedes the development of early detection and preventive measures. Herein, we used the MaxEnt model to estimate the potential global geographical distribution of S. mangiferae.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results revealed that thermal conditions played a significant role in explaining the invasion risk of S. mangiferae. Habitat suitability was found in all continents, except Antarctica. Under the present condition, habitat suitability covered 5.67&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[7]&#x2009;km[2]. For ssp126, habitat suitability will decrease from the 2060s (5.58&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[7]&#x2009;km[2]) and 2080s (5.57&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[7]&#x2009;km[2]). Similarly, under ssp585, suitable areas will decrease from 5.62&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[7] to 5.51&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[7]&#x2009;km[2] for the 2060s and 2080s, respectively.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our study has estimated&#xa0;variability in the habitat suitability of S. mangiferae which establishes a foundation for determining global risk&#xa0;assessment and response plans for the pest. This study also identifies areas where the pest is inherently more vulnerable to the impacts of changing climates and enables forecasting of its potential distribution in a dynamic world. &#xa9; 2024 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid39381801, year = {2024}, author = {Perry, D and Tamarit, E and Morgenroth, D and Gräns, A and Sturve, J and Gullström, M and Thor, P and Wennhage, H}, title = {The heat is on: sensitivity of goldsinny wrasse to global climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {coae068}, pmid = {39381801}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Unsustainable harvesting practices have drastically reduced fish populations globally and developments in aquaculture have increased. Unexpectedly, Atlantic salmon farming caused the opening of a new fishery in northern European countries, where previously unharvested mesopredatory species, like the goldsinny wrasse (Ctenolabrus rupestris), are captured for use as cleaner fish in pens along the coast and fjords. The goldsinny wrasse is widespread in coastal areas where it plays an ecologically important role as a predator of small invertebrates. Since climate change effects are particularly pronounced in coastal waters, it becomes urgent to understand how fish like the goldsinny will respond to global climate change, including the increasing frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs), ocean freshening (OF) and ocean acidification (OA). To address this, we conducted a multi-stressor experiment exposing adult goldsinny to each stressor individually, as well as to all three combined. The results indicated that the goldsinny is highly affected by MHWs and extremely sensitive to a multi-stressor environment, with 34% and 53% mortality, respectively. Additionally, exposure to a MHW event, OF and multi-stressor conditions affected fish metabolism, with the highest standard metabolic- and maximum metabolic-oxygen consumption rates observed for the MHW treatment. Increases in oxidized glutathione (GSSG) and percent oxidized glutathione (% GSSG) in the livers, indicative of oxidative stress, were also seen in the MHW, OF and multi-stressor treatments. As a single stressor, OA showed no significant impacts on the measured parameters. This information is important for conservation of coastal marine environments, given the species' important role in shallow-water habitats and for management of goldsinny or other mesopredatory fish harvested in coastal ecosystems. The sensitivity of the goldsinny wrasse to future stressors is of concern, and any potential reductions in abundance as a result of climate change may lead to cascade effects with ecosystem-wide consequences.}, }
@article {pmid39381767, year = {2024}, author = {König, L and Breves, P and Linnemann, GA and Hamer, T and Suhr, R}, title = {Climate change distress and impairment in Germany.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {1432881}, pmid = {39381767}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Germany ; Female ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Aged ; Mental Health ; Stress, Psychological/psychology ; Health Behavior ; Bayes Theorem ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Health Status ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change has been widely recognized as one of the most challenging problems facing humanity and it imposes serious mental health threats. It is important, however, to differentiate between the affective experience of distress over climate change and the functional impairments associated with climate change. Such a distinction is crucial because not all negative affective states are pathological, and they might even motivate pro-environmental behavior. Functional impairments, like not being able to work or maintaining social relationships, however, might require immediate treatment. This study assesses climate change distress and climate change impairment within the population of Germany using a population-representative sample. The results identify vulnerable subgroups and thereby can help to facilitate the development of target group specific intervention programs. Furthermore, this study explores whether climate change distress and climate change impairment are associated with general health, physical health, mental health, and diverse health behaviors.<br><br>METHODS: Study participants were drawn from a panel which is representative of the German-speaking population in Germany with Internet access. Participants answered a series of questionnaires regarding their climate change distress, climate change impairment, general health, physical health, mental health, and diverse health behaviors. To evaluate differences between subgroups, Bayesian independent samples t-tests were calculated. To evaluate associations between constructs, Bayesian correlations were calculated.<br><br>RESULTS: Especially women, younger people, people from West Germany, and people with a high level of formal education seem to experience higher levels of climate change distress. Regarding climate change impairment, the results suggest that especially women, older people, people from West Germany, people with a low level of formal education, people with a low or middle social status, and people with an inadequate/problematic health literacy seem to experience higher levels of climate change impairment. Furthermore, climate change distress and climate change impairment were weakly and differently associated with general health, physical health, mental health, and diverse health behaviors.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate change distress and impairment are not evenly distributed within German society. The results of this study provide a starting point for the development of target group specific intervention programs.}, }
@article {pmid39381222, year = {2024}, author = {Zenda, M}, title = {A systematic literature review on the impact of climate change on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in South Africa.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {18}, pages = {e38162}, pmid = {39381222}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Smallholder farmers in South Africa are increasingly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, posing significant threats to their livelihoods and food security. This systematic literature review investigates the several impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers across the country. The literature review used a systematic approach to search for relevant research across three academic databases such as Google scholar, Consensus, and Zendy. Based on the inclusion criteria for the literature review, 261 articles were initially screened, and 35 articles were included in the systematic review. This process helped to identify the most relevant and high-quality studies on the topic. The data extracted from the 35 articles were analyzed and synthesized to identify the impact of climate change on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. This helped to identify commonalities and differences across the literature, and to draw conclusions about the impact of climate change on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. The study identified and examined the specific challenges faced by smallholder farmers, including the loss of livestock, reduced crop yields and heightened economic hardship. Additionally, the review explores the coping strategies employed by farmers to mitigate these challenges and adapt to the evolving climatic conditions. The findings highlight the urgent need for targeted interventions and support mechanisms aimed at enhancing the resilience of smallholder farmers and ensuring the long-term sustainability of agricultural practices amidst the challenges posed by climate change. Furthermore, the study provides valuable recommendations for policymakers, agriculturalists, and other stakeholders to address the identified issues and support smallholder farmers in adapting to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39381198, year = {2024}, author = {Kassaw, GM and Malede, A and Gebrehiwot, M}, title = {Livelihood vulnerability to climate change health impacts among Amhara Sayint district community, northeastern Ethiopia: A composite index approach.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {18}, pages = {e38166}, pmid = {39381198}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change significantly impacts public health, affecting nearly everyone across the globe and contributing to approximately 10% of global mortality. Ethiopia is particularly vulnerable to the changing climate attributed impacts due to economic, and social determinants. While research on climate change is expanding, it often prioritizes its effects on agriculture. The impacts from public health perspective are frequently overlooked. We address this shortcoming by evaluating the vulnerability of the community in the district of Amhara Sayint, Amhara, northeastern Ethiopia, to the health impacts of climate change, and identifying factors involved. Data was collected using a community-based cross-sectional approach, involving 605 randomly selected households between July Twenty and September Five, 2022. The data collection process utilized a validated and pilot-tested questionnaire, which was administered through face-to-face interview with the aid of Kobo Collect toolbox. The community's vulnerability was assessed using the IPCC's framework of vulnerability. Household's Vulnerability status was then classified into three levels according to their Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) score. A partial proportional oddsapproach of ordinal logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with vulnerability to climate change attributed health impacts. Among the 605 respondents, 48% (95% CI: 44.1, 52.1) were identified as vulnerable, and about 4.6 % (95% CI: 3, 6.6) were classified as highly vulnerable. Wealth status (AOR1 = 1.8; 95 % CI: 1.2, 2.8), educational status (AOR1 = 2.8; 95% CI: 1.1, 7.3), marital status (AOR2 = 4.7, 95% CI: 1.6, 13.4), and home crowdedness (AOR2 = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.1, 8.1) significantly associated with vulnerability. Over half of the residents in the district wereeither being vulnerable or highly vulnerable to climate change attributed health impacts. Therefore, prioritizing prevention and preparedness along with conducting spatial analysis to identify high-risk areas for timely intervention, is essential.}, }
@article {pmid39381194, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, FX and Li, HL and Wan, JZ}, title = {An Invasion Risk Assessment of Alien Woody Species in Potential National Park Sites in Xinjiang, China, Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {e70394}, pmid = {39381194}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The invasion of alien woody species may have broad ecological, economic, and health impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change. Previous studies showed that disrupting the biodiversity conservation mechanisms in protected areas can seriously threaten natural ecosystems and the protection of rare and endangered species in such protected areas. However, there is currently no standard for evaluating the invasion risk of woody plants under climate change when establishing national parks in China. Therefore, we used a species distribution model to evaluate the invasion risk of 250 invasive alien woody species in potential national park sites in Xinjiang under climate change. The results indicated that the probability of forest invasion in the potential Altai Kanas National Park was determined to be significantly higher than that of the average level in Xinjiang nature reserves, both under current and future climate conditions. At the same time, the probability of invasive woody species invading coniferous forests, broad-leaved forests, and grassland ecosystems is higher in the Altai Kanas and Tianshan potential national parks. We found that Acer negundo, Robinia pseudoacacia, and Amorpha fruticose in potential parks in Xinjiang have higher invasion potential and thus require heightened vigilance to stop their spread. This study contributes to the monitoring and management of national parks and provides an actionable foundation for protecting ecosystem functions and minimizing the potential risk of invasive alien species under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39380746, year = {2024}, author = {Shrestha, P and Nukala, SK and Islam, F and Badgery-Parker, T and Foo, F}, title = {The co-benefits of climate change mitigation strategies on cardiovascular health: a systematic review.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {48}, number = {}, pages = {101098}, pmid = {39380746}, issn = {2666-6065}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a significant threat to global human health and a leading cause of premature death. Global warming, leading to more extreme weather (in particular extreme heat events), and air pollution has been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. According to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, 62% of the deaths attributable to climate change were from CVD. Climate change mitigation is a slow, steady process, and the concept of co-benefits has arisen to promote climate action. This systematic review examines how numerous mitigation strategies, such as plant-based diets, increasing green spaces, increasing active transport, using renewable energy sources, and smoking cessation, may have the co-benefit of reducing CVD.<br><br>METHODS: A mixed methods systematic review with narrative synthesis was conducted on four databases, according to the PRISMA guidelines. The articles retrieved (published between 2012 and 2022) had a mitigation strategy as the exposure, and CVD related morbidity or mortality reduction as an outcome.<br><br>FINDINGS: The review found that renewable energy has a stronger association with cardiovascular co-benefits compared to emission reduction targets. Multimodal transport is more beneficial for both the climate and cardiac health than zero emission vehicles. Diet modification, such as Mediterranean and plant-based-diets, is positively associated with CVD reduction. Proximity to green spaces and reducing urbanisation may also improve cardiac health.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: This systematic review demonstrates that implementing four mitigation strategies - increasing renewable energy use, active transport, green spaces, and plant-based diets; could lead to the co-benefit of reducing CVD morbidity and mortality. Furthermore, it illustrates the importance of plant-based diets and active transport to improve cardiovascular health.<br><br>FUNDING: This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.}, }
@article {pmid39379104, year = {2024}, author = {Braithwaite, J and Smith, CL and Leask, E and Wijekulasuriya, S and Brooke-Cowden, K and Fisher, G and Patel, R and Pagano, L and Rahimi-Ardabili, H and Spanos, S and Rojas, C and Partington, A and McQuillan, E and Dammery, G and Carrigan, A and Ehrenfeld, L and Coiera, E and Westbrook, J and Zurynski, Y}, title = {Strategies and tactics to reduce the impact of healthcare on climate change: systematic review.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {387}, number = {}, pages = {e081284}, doi = {10.1136/bmj-2024-081284}, pmid = {39379104}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Delivery of Health Care ; *Carbon Footprint ; Greenhouse Gases ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To review the international literature and assess the ways healthcare systems are mitigating and can mitigate their carbon footprint, which is currently estimated to be more than 4.4% of global emissions.<br><br>DESIGN: Systematic review of empirical studies and grey literature to examine how healthcare services and institutions are limiting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.<br><br>DATA SOURCES: Eight databases and authoritative reports were searched from inception dates to November 2023.<br><br>Teams of investigators screened relevant publications against the inclusion criteria (eg, in English; discussed impact of healthcare systems on climate change), applying four quality appraisal tools, and results are reported in accordance with PRISMA (preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses).<br><br>RESULTS: Of 33&#x2009;737 publications identified, 32&#x2009;998 (97.8%) were excluded after title and abstract screening; 536 (72.5%) of the remaining publications were excluded after full text review. Two additional papers were identified, screened, and included through backward citation tracking. The 205 included studies applied empirical (n=88, 42.9%), review (n=60, 29.3%), narrative descriptive (n=53, 25.9%), and multiple (n=4, 2.0%) methods. More than half of the publications (51.5%) addressed the macro level of the healthcare system. Nine themes were identified using inductive analysis: changing clinical and surgical practices (n=107); enacting policies and governance (n=97); managing physical waste (n=83); changing organisational behaviour (n=76); actions of individuals and groups (eg, advocacy, community involvement; n=74); minimising travel and transportation (n=70); using tools for measuring GHG emissions (n=70); reducing emissions related to infrastructure (n=63); and decarbonising the supply chain (n=48).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Publications presented various strategies and tactics to reduce GHG emissions. These included changing clinical and surgical practices; using policies such as benchmarking and reporting at a facility level, and financial levers to reduce emissions from procurement; reducing physical waste; changing organisational culture through workforce training; supporting education on the benefits of decarbonisation; and involving patients in care planning. Numerous tools and frameworks were presented for measuring GHG emissions, but implementation and evaluation of the sustainability of initiatives were largely missing. At the macro level, decarbonisation approaches focused on energy grid emissions, infrastructure efficiency, and reducing supply chain emissions, including those from agriculture and supply of food products. Decarbonisation mechanisms at the micro and meso system levels ranged from reducing low value care, to choosing lower GHG options (eg, anaesthetic gases, rescue inhalers), to reducing travel. Based on these strategies and tactics, this study provides a framework to support the decarbonisation of healthcare systems.<br><br>PROSPERO: CRD42022383719.}, }
@article {pmid39379000, year = {2024}, author = {Moelling, MH and Duckworth, RA}, title = {Climate change reduces the tension of conflicting selection pressures on breeding date in a passerine bird.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {291}, number = {2032}, pages = {20240959}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2024.0959}, pmid = {39379000}, issn = {1471-2954}, support = {//National Science Foundation/ ; //Sigma Xi/ ; //University of Arizona/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Selection, Genetic ; Seasons ; Cold Temperature ; Reproduction ; Passeriformes/physiology ; }, abstract = {Unpredictably fluctuating environments create complex selective landscapes that shape the distribution of key life history traits. Identifying the mechanisms behind dynamic patterns of selection is difficult, yet essential for predicting responses to climate change. We combine long-term measures with field manipulation of natural selection on breeding date in a wild bird to investigate whether highly variable spring cold snaps drive fluctuating selection. We show that variation in cold snap intensity leads to fluctuating selection on breeding date-in weak cold snap years, selection was consistently negative; however, in strong cold snap years, its direction reversed. These patterns were mirrored in a field experiment; nests that were food supplemented during cold snaps avoided cold snap mortality leading earlier breeders to have higher fitness. In contrast, in the non-supplemented group earlier breeders had higher cold snap nest mortality and selection was positive. Using nearly a century of climate data, we show that cold snaps are becoming less frequent and paradoxically occurring later which should allow earlier breeders to avoid them, potentially releasing conflicting selection pressures and facilitating a rapid phenological shift. Thus, rather than constraining a species' ability to adapt, climate change can enable a rapid shift to a new phenotypic optimum.}, }
@article {pmid39378939, year = {2024}, author = {do Prado, HA and Rodrigues, T and Manes, S and Kasecker, T and Vale, MM and Scarano, FR and Pires, APF}, title = {Designing nature to be a solution for climate change in cities: A meta-analytical review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176735}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176735}, pmid = {39378939}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Nature-based solutions (NbS) are designed as a win-win strategy to address societal challenges while providing biodiversity, social, and economic benefits. However, uncertainties and gaps persist, particularly regarding the criteria that define a NbS measure and the specific requirements for a solution to be fully recognized as such, which limit the full potential of these strategies in practice. Another persistent issue is the lack of data on strategy responses across different implementation scales (local, city, regional) and climatic zones (temperate, arid, tropical). This article provides an overview of the potential of NbS to promote climate adaptation in cities. Our meta-analysis, which compiled 7163 records from 89 articles worldwide, indicates that integrating NbS strategies with traditional approaches (gray infrastructure and sustainable technologies) is the most effective response to concurrently address multiple climate-related hazards. Flooding had the highest impact at 35.7 %, followed by increased runoff at 30.5 %. Peak flow and water pollution both had an impact of 10.3 %, while temperature increase accounted for 5.7 %, and decreases in thermal comfort made up 5.0 %. We concluded that all evaluated strategies reduced the impact of climate-related hazards, but this reduction was twice as large when incorporating NbS (18.6 % vs 8.1 %). We also demonstrate that this effect is observed under projected climate scenarios, reinforcing the role of NbS in making cities more resilient and sustainable.}, }
@article {pmid39378808, year = {2024}, author = {Ying, H and Wang, S and Zhang, B and Mao, Z and Zhang, F and Li, J}, title = {Earth observation reveals the shifting patterns of China's lake colour driven by climate change and land cover.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {122809}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122809}, pmid = {39378808}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Water colour has been recognized as one of the most important Essential Climate Variables of the lake ecosystem, as it is directly related to changes in water constituents and almost all of the lake's ecological changes could alter water colour. Given the high retrieval accuracy from existing Earth observation satellite data, water colour, in terms of Forel Ule Index (FUI), can be a realistic indicator to track the long-term changes in the lake ecosystem and further explore the lake response to environmental changes. This paper aims to comprehensively investigate the spatiotemporal variation patterns of FUI in 159 large lakes (≥25 km[2]) across China during 2000-2022 based on the MODIS data and detect the climatic and anthropogenic driving forces of these changes. The 23 years of MODIS records revealed an overall downward trend of lake FUI across China, indicating the lakes in China shifted to bluer colour during the past two decades. Through driving factor analyses, the complicated interplay among lake colour, lake morphology, regional climate shifts and human interference dynamics was uncovered. In the long term, it was found the pronounced change in lake colour in the western lake zones was primarily attributed to climate warming and humidification, whereas that in the eastern lake zones was mainly related to the alterations in regional land cover during the past two decades. Seasonally, lake basin's air temperature was identified as the main factor impacting the seasonal patterns of lake colour, followed by wind speed and runoff. Spatially, there was high spatial variability in lake colour across China, which was mainly associated with lake elevation and lake basin's precipitation rate, although the factors exhibited considerable divergence across different zones. Based upon the above findings, the implications for lake environment protection and management in different regions of China were further discussed.}, }
@article {pmid39375503, year = {2024}, author = {Villalobos Perna, P and Finizio, M and Carranza, ML and Innangi, M and Bongiovanni, SB and Andino, N and Di Febbraro, M}, title = {Anthropogenic and climate change-driven coastline dynamics will erode future nesting habitats of the kentish plover on the central adriatic coast.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {23306}, pmid = {39375503}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {PON-AIM (Programma Operativo Nazionale ricerca e innovazione 2014-2020; ID AIM1897595-2)//Italian Ministry of University and Reasearch/ ; Lily//Department of Biosciences and Territory, University of Molise/ ; CitAlien//Department of Biosciences and Territory, University of Molise/ ; Project DM 1062-10/08/2021, RTD-A (Action IV.6: Green. Code: 39-G-13537-2)//Italian Ministry of University and Research/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Nesting Behavior/physiology ; Italy ; Charadriiformes/physiology ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Anthropogenic Effects ; }, abstract = {Shorebirds play a crucial role in assessing the health of coastal ecosystems due to their life history, behaviour, migratory patterns, and feeding preferences. Many shorebird species are experiencing population declines worldwide, driven by habitat loss and climate change. Understanding these challenges requires extensive data on their distribution and breeding ecology. The Kentish Plover (Anarhynchus alexandrinus) is a small shorebird that constructs its nests on sandy beaches. However, there is a scarcity of data regarding the reproductive ecology of this species in many areas, including the Molise region of Southern Italy. This study aimed at assessing the potential role of environmental variables derived from remote sensing to model current and future Kentish Plover nesting habitat suitability accounting for future scenarios of coastal dynamics in 2040. Data on Kentish Plover nests were collected along the Molise coast over several years and used to calibrate ecological niche models (ENMs) relying on environmental variables derived from coastal images. Kentish Plover nesting habitat suitability was mostly affected by distance from open sand, artificial surfaces, shoreline, and herbaceous vegetation and forested areas. The study predicts an average decline of more than 22% in suitable nesting environments for the Kentish Plover within the next two decades. Results indicated that our modelling approach can offer valuable insights for the conservation strategy of Kentish Plover in the region. In conclusion, we assert that preserving the nesting habitat of the Kentish Plover will not only safeguard this species, but also other species that inhabit similar environments, along with providing protection for coastal landscapes and associated ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid39375191, year = {2024}, author = {Ayar, D and Gözüaçık, B and Şen, B}, title = {Effect of Global Climate Change Concern on Environmental Sensitivity of Nursing Students.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13434}, pmid = {39375191}, issn = {1525-1446}, support = {2209-A//T&#xfc;rkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Ara&#x15f;t&#x131;rma Kurumu/ ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of global climate change concern on environmental sensitivity in nursing students.<br><br>DESIGN: This study was descriptive, cross-sectional, and correlational.<br><br>SAMPLE: The study was conducted with undergraduate nursing students (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;350).<br><br>METHOD: Descriptive Information Form, Climate Change Worry Scale, and Environmental Sensitivity Scale were used as data collection tools in the study. The relationship between global climate change concern and environmental sensitivity of nursing students was evaluated by Pearson correlation analysis, and the effect of climate change concern on environmental sensitivity of nursing students was evaluated by simple regression analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: It was determined that there was a positive and moderately significant relationship between the mean total scores of the Climate Change Concern Scale and the mean total scores of the Environmental Sensitivity Scale (r&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.388, p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As a result of this study, it was found that as nursing students' concern about global climate change increased, their sensitivity toward the environment also increased.}, }
@article {pmid39373156, year = {2024}, author = {Yuvaraj, BR and Masilamani, V and Saravanan, MS and Karthikeyan, H and Moses, F and Abraham, A and Kumar, RP and Manjula, K}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on reproductive health: A content analysis of climate journalism coverage.}, journal = {African journal of reproductive health}, volume = {28}, number = {9}, pages = {136-144}, doi = {10.29063/ajrh2024/v28i9.12}, pmid = {39373156}, issn = {1118-4841}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Reproductive Health ; Female ; *Journalism ; Pregnancy ; }, abstract = {complications, infectious diseases, maternal and infant health in disasters, gender-based violence, healthcare access inequities, mental health impacts, and food security issues. Findings reveal an uneven distribution of coverage across continents, with potential language bias in English-dominated sources. Acknowledging limitations, future research directions emphasize a more inclusive approach, incorporating diverse linguistic perspectives and qualitative exploration of community experiences. The study underscores the imperative for global representation in media discourse This research explores the intricate relationship between climate change and reproductive health through an analysis of 1000 global news articles from 2018 onwards. Utilizing Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), key topics in media coverage are identified, encompassing fertility challenges, pregnancy and advocates for comprehensive, evidence-based strategies to address the complex interplay between climate change and reproductive health.}, }
@article {pmid39371277, year = {2024}, author = {Hernández-Duarte, WA and Guerrero-Calderon, DP and Duarte-Gómez, WJ and Fonseca-Paipa, AN and Rodríguez-Muñoz, M and Tellez-Morales, MA and Cubillos Garnica, LC}, title = {Health conditions in land transport workers and climate change. Exploratory systematic review.}, journal = {Revista brasileira de medicina do trabalho : publicacao oficial da Associacao Nacional de Medicina do Trabalho-ANAMT}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {e20241268}, pmid = {39371277}, issn = {1679-4435}, abstract = {A systematic exploratory review was carried out to describe the influence of climate change on the health conditions of land transport drivers, both physical and mental. Additionally, actions for the prevention of these complications are described. For the review, several databases, such as Science Direct, MEDLINE, Springer, PubMed, Redalyc, EBSCO, SciELO, and Scopus, were examined. There was the need to extend the search timeframe from 5 years to 10 years. The studies found consisted mainly of review articles, showing an emphasis on public health and a high frequency of possible physical effects on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. At the mental level, the presence of cases of anxiety, depression and stress were mentioned. As for alternatives for the prevention of these effects, the importance of creating public policies for health promotion and disease prevention was highlighted. It is important to increase scientific production in the field of occupational safety and health and applied studies.}, }
@article {pmid39371267, year = {2024}, author = {Quintero-Galvis, JF and Saenz-Agudelo, P and D'Elía, G and Nespolo, RF}, title = {Local adaptation of Dromiciops marsupials (Microbiotheriidae) from southern South America: Implications for species management facing climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {e70355}, pmid = {39371267}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The two species of the microbiotheriid marsupial genus Dromiciops (Dromiciops bozinovici: "Panchos's monito del monte" and Dromiciops gliroides: "monito del monte") exhibit a marked latitudinal genetic differentiation. Nevertheless, it is unclear whether this differentiation results from neutral processes or can be explained, to some extent, by local adaptation to different environmental conditions. Here, we used an SNP panel gathered by Rad-seq and searched for footprints of local adaptation (putative loci under selection) by exploring genetic associations with environmental variables in the two species of Dromiciops in Chilean and Argentinean populations. We applied three methods for detecting outlier SNPs and two genotype-environment associations approaches to quantify associations between allelic frequencies and environmental variables. Both species display strong genetic structure. D. bozinovici exhibited three distinct genetic groups, marking the first report of such structuring in this species using SNPs. In contrast, D. gliroides displayed four genetic clusters, consistent with previous studies. Both species exhibited an association of their genetic structure with environmental variables. D. bozinovici exhibited significant associations of allelic frequencies with elevation, precipitation during the warmest periods, and seasonality in the thermal regime. For D. gliroides, genetic variation appeared to be associated with more variables than D. bozinovici, including precipitation and temperature-related variables, isothermality, and elevation. All the outlier SNPs were mapped to the D. gliroides reference genome to explore if they fell within functionally known genes. These results represent a necessary first step toward identifying the genome regions that harbor genes associated with climate adaptations in Dromiciops. Notably, we identified genes involved in various functions, including carbohydrate synthesis (ALG8), muscle and neuronal regulation (MEF2D), and stress responses (PTGES3). Ultimately, this study contributes valuable insights that can inform targeted conservation strategies aimed at preserving the genetic diversity of Dromiciops in the face of environmental challenges.}, }
@article {pmid39370118, year = {2024}, author = {Ahuja, A and Ahuja, NK}, title = {Preparing the Next Generation of Gastroenterologists to Tackle Climate Change.}, journal = {Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cgh.2024.07.043}, pmid = {39370118}, issn = {1542-7714}, }
@article {pmid39369778, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, S and Xiao, Y and Xiao, Z and Li, J and Herrera-Ulloa, A}, title = {Global climate change impacts on the potential distribution of typical Trachinotus fishes and early warning assessment of invasions.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {263}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {120115}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.120115}, pmid = {39369778}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Marine habitats and ecosystems are increasingly being impacted by global climate change and the global spread of captive breeding. In this study, we focused on five typical Trachinotus species (Trachinotus anak, Trachinotus blochii, Trachinotus mookalee, Trachinotus goreenisi, Trachinotus ovatus) as research subjects. We utilized species distribution models and ecological niche models to predict the present and future potential distribution of these species, as well as to assess ecological niche overlap and evaluate the early warning of invasion by Trachinotus species. T. ovatus stands out with its broad distribution range and high adaptability to different environments. It occupies 1.114% of medium-high suitable areas, spanning 100,147 km[2]. Our predictions also suggest that T. ovatus would undergo a significant expansion (approximately 55% of the total area) under both past and future environmental scenarios, demonstrating a higher tolerance and adaptability to changes in ambient temperatures. It can be discerned that T. ovatus exhibits strong environmental adaptability, which may potentially lead to biological invasion along the southeastern coast of China. The T. anak, on the other hand, showed a higher expansion trend under high carbon dioxide concentrations (RCP8.5), indicating a certain convergence with carbon dioxide concentration. Our models showed that under future climatic conditions, T. ovatus would become the dominant species, with increased competition with T. mookalee and decreased competition with T. goreenisi, T. mookalee, and T. anak. Based on our findings and the net-pen culture mode of T. ovatus, we identified the hotspot habitat of T. ovatus to be located in the Indo-Pacific convergence zone. However, there is a possibility of an expansion trend towards the southeast coast of China in the future. Therefore, it is crucial to provide an early warning for the potential biological invasion of T. ovatus.}, }
@article {pmid39369075, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, S and Zhang, HJ and Wang, TT and Hossain, S}, title = {Simulating runoff changes and evaluating under climate change using CMIP6 data and the optimal SWAT model: a case study.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {23228}, pmid = {39369075}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {This study examines the influence of climate change on hydrological processes, particularly runoff, and how it affects managing water resources and ecosystem sustainability. It uses CMIP6 data to analyze changes in runoff patterns under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). This study also uses a Deep belief network (DBN) and a Modified Sparrow Search Optimizer (MSSO) to enhance the runoff forecasting capabilities of the SWAT model. DBN can learn complex patterns in the data and improve the accuracy of runoff forecasting. The meta-heuristic algorithm optimizes the models through iterative search processes and finds the optimal parameter configuration in the SWAT model. The Optimal SWAT Model accurately predicts runoff patterns, with high precision in capturing variability, a strong connection between projected and actual data, and minimal inaccuracy in its predictions, as indicated by an ENS score of 0.7152 and an R[2] coefficient of determination of 0.8012. The outcomes of the forecasts illustrated that the runoff will decrease in the coming years, which could threaten the water source. Therefore, managers should manage water resources with awareness of these conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39368938, year = {2024}, author = {Hoyos Flight, M and Tait, J}, title = {Capturing carbon to mitigate climate change: storage or use?.}, journal = {Trends in biotechnology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tibtech.2024.09.003}, pmid = {39368938}, issn = {1879-3096}, abstract = {Reducing atmospheric CO2 is vital to combat climate change. Alongside reducing emissions, it is essential to capture atmospheric CO2 and either use it or store it, depending on which option yields the best outcomes. Government policies should coordinate actions in areas such as the bioeconomy and avoid creating perverse incentives.}, }
@article {pmid39368663, year = {2024}, author = {Moloo, DH and Hunter, DA and Arasaradnam, RP}, title = {Tackling climate change is a global medical community responsibility.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {100253}, doi = {10.1016/j.clinme.2024.100253}, pmid = {39368663}, issn = {1473-4893}, }
@article {pmid39366706, year = {2024}, author = {Anikeeva, O and Hansen, A and Varghese, B and Borg, M and Zhang, Y and Xiang, J and Bi, P}, title = {The impact of increasing temperatures due to climate change on infectious diseases.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {387}, number = {}, pages = {e079343}, doi = {10.1136/bmj-2024-079343}, pmid = {39366706}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Vector Borne Diseases/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Animals ; }, abstract = {Global temperatures will continue to rise due to climate change, with high temperature periods expected to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration. Infectious diseases, including vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever and malaria, waterborne diseases such as cholera, and foodborne diseases such as salmonellosis are influenced by temperature and other climatic variables, thus contributing to higher disease burden and associated healthcare costs, particularly in socioeconomically disadvantaged regions. Targeted efforts and investments are therefore needed to support low and middle income countries to prepare for and respond to the increasing infectious disease threats posed by rising temperatures. This can be facilitated by the development and refinement of robust disease and entomological surveillance and early warning systems with integration of climatic information that promote enhanced understanding of the geographic distribution of disease risk. To enhance healthcare workforce capacity and capability to respond to these public health threats, medical curricula and continuing professional education programmes for healthcare providers must include evidence based components on the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases.}, }
@article {pmid39365758, year = {2024}, author = {Velasco, JA and Luna-Aranguré, C and Calderón-Bustamante, O and Mendoza-Ponce, A and Estrada, F and González-Salazar, C}, title = {Drivers of urban biodiversity in Mexico and joint risks from future urban expansion, climate change, and urban heat island effect.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {e0308522}, pmid = {39365758}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Mexico ; *Climate Change ; *Urbanization ; Humans ; *Cities ; Animals ; Ecosystem ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Urbanization is a phenomenon where humans concentrate in high densities and consume more per capita energy than in rural areas, imposing high pressures on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Although Mexico is recognized as a megadiverse country and there is an understanding of ecological and evolutionary processes underlying this high diversity, only some efforts have been devoted to understanding how urban biodiversity has been shaped. Here, we compiled a set of socioeconomic and ecological variables to explore macroecological patterns in urban biodiversity across Mexican municipalities. Specifically, we tested the species-area relationships (SAR) between rural and urban areas across municipalities and evaluated the relative role of different socioeconomic and ecological variables driving urban species richness for terrestrial vertebrates. Finally, we explored the exposure of Mexican municipalities to future urban expansion, the urban heat island (UHI) effect, and climate change. Urban and rural settlements show differences in the shape of SAR models. We found that urban area, size of the network of urban protected areas, the number of ecoregions, and GDP explained the urban total species richness relatively well. Mexican cities in the northeast region may be at a higher risk than others. Based on our analyses, policymakers should identify priority urban conservation sites in cities with high species richness and low urbanization development. These actions would alleviate future urban biodiversity loss in these growing cities.}, }
@article {pmid39365614, year = {2024}, author = {Alvarado-Jiménez, DA and Pietropolli Charmet, A and Stoppa, P and Tasinato, N}, title = {The radiative efficiency and global warming potential of HCFC-132b.}, journal = {Chemphyschem : a European journal of chemical physics and physical chemistry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e202400632}, doi = {10.1002/cphc.202400632}, pmid = {39365614}, issn = {1439-7641}, abstract = {Hydro-chloro-fluoro-carbons (HCFCs) are potent greenhouse gases which strongly absorb the infrared (IR) radiation within the 8 - 12 μm atmospheric windows. Despite international policies schedule their phasing out by 2020 for developed countries and 2030 globally, HCFC-132b (CH2ClCClF2) has been recently detected with significant atmospheric concentration. In this scenario, detailed climate metrics are of paramount importance for understanding the capacity of anthropogenic pollutants to contribute to global warming. In this work, the radiative efficiency (RE) of HCFC-132b is experimentally measured for the first time and used to determine its global warming potential (GWP) over 20-, 100- and 500-year time horizon. Vibrational- and rotational-spectroscopic properties of this molecule are first characterized by exploiting a synergism between Fourier-transform IR (FTIR) spectroscopy experiments and quantum chemical calculations. Equilibrium geometry, rotational parameters and vibrational properties predicted theoretically beyond the double-harmonic approximation, are employed to assist the vibrational assignment of the experimental trace. Finally, FTIR spectra measured over a range of pressures are used to determine HCFC-132b absorption cross section spectrum from 150 to 3000 cm-1, from which istantaneous and effective REs are derived and, in turn, used for GWP evaluation.}, }
@article {pmid39363605, year = {2024}, author = {Rhim, N and Lee, S and Choi, KH}, title = {Adverse health effects of climate change and air pollution in people with disabilities: a systematic review.}, journal = {Epidemiology and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e2024080}, doi = {10.4178/epih.e2024080}, pmid = {39363605}, issn = {2092-7193}, abstract = {Global warming and air pollution adversely affect the health of the entire human population, particularly older adults, people with disabilities (PWDs), and children. In this systematic review, we investigated the adverse health effects of climate change and air pollution in PWDs. We conducted a comprehensive literature search of the PubMed database using the terms "disab*," "air pollution," and "climate change" on July 4, 2023, and August 8, 2023 and searched the Web of Science (WOS) database on December 28, 2023. We identified 425 and 1169 studies on climate change cited in PubMed and WOS, respectively, as well as 333 studies on air pollution in PubMed and 495 studies on air pollution in WOS. The studies were classified by type of exposure, and full-text screening was conducted to confirm that the population, intervention or exposure, comparator, outcome statement, and inclusion and exclusion criteria were met. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess the quality of the included cohort and case-control studies and for data analysis. In extreme temperatures, PWDs experienced higher rates of injury, heat-related illness, functional impairment, heart disease, mental disorders, and mortality than people who were nondisabled (ND). Exposure to air pollution resulted in higher rates of obesity, cardiovascular disease, poststroke neurological and functional disability, and mortality in PWDs than in people who were ND. Therefore, because PWDs were more affected by climate change and air pollution than people who were ND, sensitive policies and preparedness measures should be developed for PWDs.}, }
@article {pmid39362560, year = {2024}, author = {Laino, E and Toledo, I and Aragonés, L and Iglesias, G}, title = {A novel multi-hazard risk assessment framework for coastal cities under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {954}, number = {}, pages = {176638}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176638}, pmid = {39362560}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Coastal cities, as centres of human habitation, economic activity and biodiversity, are confronting the ever-escalating challenges posed by climate change. In this work, a novel Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment framework is presented with the focus on Coastal City Living Labs. The methodology provides a comprehensive assessment of climate-related hazards, including sea-level rise, coastal flooding, coastal erosion, land flooding, heavy precipitation, extreme temperatures, heatwaves, cold spells, landslides and strong winds. Its application is illustrated through a case study: the Coastal City Living Lab of Benidorm, Spain. The methodology incorporates remote sensing data from various satellite sources, such as ERA5, Urban Atlas and MERIT DEM, to evaluate multiple hazards through a systematic and standardized indicator-based approach, offering a holistic risk profile that allows for comparison with other European coastal cities. The integration of remote sensing data enhances the accuracy and resolution of hazard indicators, providing detailed insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of climate risks. The incorporation of local expertise through the Coastal City Living Lab concept enriches data collection and ensures context-specific adequacy. The integration of local studies and historical extreme climate events enhances the validity and context of the risk indicators. The findings align with regional trends and reveal specific vulnerabilities, particularly related to heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding. Despite its strengths, the MHRA methodology faces limitations, including reliance on outdated datasets and the complexity of integrating multiple hazards. Continuous updates and adaptive management strategies are essential to maintain the accuracy and relevance of risk assessments. The broader implications of the methodology for global coastal cities highlight its potential as a model for developing targeted adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39361047, year = {2024}, author = {Das, A and Swain, PK}, title = {Navigating the sea level rise: Exploring the interplay of climate change, sea level rise, and coastal communities in india.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {11}, pages = {1010}, pmid = {39361047}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; India ; *Ecosystem ; *Sea Level Rise ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Agriculture ; Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {This research article investigates the intricate interplay between climate change, global sea level rise (SLR), and the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal regions of India. Through an interdisciplinary approach, this paper provides an overview of the global consequences of SLR on coastal communities, exploring economic, social, and environmental impacts on agriculture, communities, and coastal areas. The study examines the displacement of communities and its impact on food security, infrastructure, tourism, and ecological loss based on a comprehensive literature review. This paper emphasizes the sustainable preservation of coastal ecosystems and the development of climate-resilient infrastructure. This research aims to offer a detailed understanding of the evolving landscape of coastal livelihoods, providing valuable insights for adaptive strategies, policy formulation, and sustainable development. Ultimately, this article contributes to the scientific discourse by shedding light on the complex dynamics between climate change, SLR, and coastal communities, guiding efforts toward a resilient and sustainable future. The insights are drawn from secondary data resources, including books, scholarly journals, and reports from organizations such as the IPCC and NOAA. Based on a thorough review of the relevant literature, it critically examines the existing and potential consequences of sea level rise induced by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39359904, year = {2024}, author = {Curasi, SR and Melton, JR and Arora, VK and Humphreys, ER and Whaley, CH}, title = {Global climate change below 2 °C avoids large end century increases in burned area in Canada.}, journal = {NPJ climate and atmospheric science}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {228}, pmid = {39359904}, issn = {2397-3722}, abstract = {Wildfire impacts the global carbon cycle, property, harvestable timber, and public health. Canada saw a record fire season in 2023 with 14.9 Mha burned-over seven times the 1986-2022 average of 2.1 Mha. Here we utilize a new process-based wildfire module that explicitly represents fire weather, fuel type and availability, ignition sources, fire suppression, and vegetation's climate response to project the future of wildfire in Canada. Under rapid climate change (shared socioeconomic pathway [SSP] 370 &amp; 585) simulated annual burned area in the 2090 s reaches 10.2 ± 2.1 to 11.7 ± 2.4 Mha, approaching the 2023 fire season total. However, climate change below a 2 °C global target (SSP126), keeps the 2090 s area burned near modern (2004-2014) norms. The simulated area burned and carbon emissions are most sensitive to climate drivers and lightning but future lightning activity is a key uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid39357915, year = {2024}, author = {Bianco, G and Espinoza-Chávez, RM and Ashigbie, PG and Junio, H and Borhani, C and Miles-Richardson, S and Spector, J}, title = {Projected impact of climate change on human health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015550}, pmid = {39357915}, issn = {2059-7908}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; }, abstract = {Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute relatively little to global carbon emissions but are recognised to be among the most vulnerable parts of the world to health-related consequences of climate change. To help inform resilient health systems and health policy strategies, we sought to systematically analyse published projections of the impact of rising global temperatures and other weather-related events on human health in LMICs. A systematic search involving multiple databases was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines to identify studies with modelled projections of the future impact of climate change on human health. Qualitative studies, reviews and meta-analyses were excluded. The search yielded more than 2500 articles, of which 70 studies involving 37 countries met criteria for inclusion. China, Brazil and India were the most studied countries while the sub-Saharan African region was represented in only 9% of studies. Forty specific health outcomes were grouped into eight categories. Non-disease-specific temperature-related mortality was the most studied health outcome, followed by neglected tropical infections (predominantly dengue), malaria and cardiovascular diseases. Nearly all health outcomes studied were projected to increase in burden and/or experience a geographic shift in prevalence over the next century due to climate change. Progressively severe climate change scenarios were associated with worse health outcomes. Knowledge gaps identified in this analysis included insufficient studies of various high burden diseases, asymmetric distribution of studies across LMICs and limited use of some climate parameters as independent variables. Findings from this review could be the basis for future research to help inform climate mitigation and adaptation programmes aimed at safeguarding population health in LMICs.}, }
@article {pmid39355964, year = {2024}, author = {Mattila, ALK and Opedal, &#xd8;H and Hällfors, MH and Pietikäinen, L and Koivusaari, SHM and Hyvärinen, MT}, title = {The potential for evolutionary rescue in an Arctic seashore plant threatened by climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {291}, number = {2032}, pages = {20241351}, pmid = {39355964}, issn = {1471-2954}, support = {//Swedish Research Council/ ; //Jenny and Antti Wihuri Foundation/ ; //Finnish Museum of Natural History/ ; //University of Helsinki Research Fund, LUOVA-Doctoral Programme in Wildlife Biology Research/ ; //Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation/ ; //Research Council of Finland/ ; //Crafoord Foundation/ ; //Societas pro Fauna et Flora Fennica/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Biological Evolution ; Arctic Regions ; *Endangered Species ; *Primula/physiology ; Flowers ; Phenotype ; Adaptation, Physiological ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change may be particularly severe for geographically isolated populations, which must adjust through plastic responses or evolve. Here, we study an endangered Arctic plant, Primula nutans ssp. finmarchica, confined to Fennoscandian seashores and showing indications of maladaptation to warming climate. We evaluate the potential of these populations to evolve to facilitate survival in the rapidly warming Arctic (i.e. evolutionary rescue) by utilizing manual crossing experiments in a nested half-sibling breeding design. We estimate G-matrices, evolvability and genetic constraints in traits with potentially conflicting selection pressures. To explicitly evaluate the potential for climate change adaptation, we infer the expected time to evolve from a northern to a southern phenotype under different selection scenarios, using demographic and climatic data to relate expected evolutionary rates to projected rates of climate change. Our results indicate that, given the nearly 10-fold greater evolvability of vegetative than of floral traits, adaptation in these traits may take place nearly in concert with changing climate, given effective climate mitigation. However, the comparatively slow expected evolutionary modification of floral traits may hamper the evolution of floral traits to track climate-induced changes in pollination environment, compromising sexual reproduction and thus reducing the likelihood of evolutionary rescue.}, }
@article {pmid39355285, year = {2024}, author = {Orrù, L and Mannarini, S}, title = {Psychological impact of climate change emergency: an attempt to define eco-anxiety.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1375803}, pmid = {39355285}, issn = {1664-1078}, }
@article {pmid39355204, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Correction to: To live or let die? Epigenetic adaptations to climate change-a review.}, journal = {Environmental epigenetics}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {dvae016}, doi = {10.1093/eep/dvae016}, pmid = {39355204}, issn = {2058-5888}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/eep/dvae009.].}, }
@article {pmid39353968, year = {2024}, author = {Abd El Ghany, MM and El-Hadidy, SM and Sakr, SA and Korany, EA and Morsy, SM}, title = {Visual MODFLOW, solute transport modeling, and remote sensing techniques for adapting aquifer potentiality under reclamation and climate change impacts in coastal aquifer.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {22827}, pmid = {39353968}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Global environmental changes, such as climate change and reclamation alterations, significantly influence hydrological processes, leading to hydrologic nonstationarity and challenges in managing water availability and distribution. This study introduces a conceptual underpinning for the rational development and sustainability of groundwater resources. As one of the areas intended for the development projects within the Egyptian national plan for the reclamation of one and a half million acres; hundreds of pumping wells were constructed in the Moghra area to fulfill the reclamation demand. This study investigates the long-term impacts of exploiting the drilled pumping wells under climate change. The approach is to monitor the groundwater levels and the salinity values in the Moghra aquifer with various operational strategies and present proposed sustainable development scenarios. The impact of global warming and climate change is estimated for a prediction period of 30 years by using satellite data, time series geographical analysis, and statistical modeling. Using MODFLOW and Solute Transport (MT3DMS) modules of Visual MODFLOW USGS 2005 software, a three-dimensional (3D) finite-difference model is created to simulate groundwater flow and salinity distribution in the Moghra aquifer with the input of forecast downscaling (2020-2050) of main climatic parameters (PPT, ET, and Temp). The optimal adaptation-integrated scenario to cope with long-term groundwater withdrawal and climate change impacts is achieved when the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources (MWRI) recommends that the maximum drawdown shouldn't be more significant than 1.0 m/ year. In this scenario, 1,500 pumping wells are distributed with an equal space of 500 m, a pumping rate of 1,200 m[3]/day and input the forecast of the most significant climatic parameters after 30 years. The output results of this scenario revealed a drawdown level of 42 m and a groundwater salinity value of 16,000 mg/l. Climate change has an evident impact on groundwater quantity and quality, particularly in the unconfined coastal aquifer, which is vulnerable to saltwater intrusion and pollution of drinking water resources. The relationship between climate change and the hydrologic cycle is crucial for predicting future water availability and addressing water-related issues.}, }
@article {pmid39353944, year = {2024}, author = {Doell, KC and Todorova, B and Vlasceanu, M and Bak Coleman, JB and Pronizius, E and Schumann, P and Azevedo, F and Patel, Y and Berkebile-Wineberg, MM and Brick, C and Lange, F and Grayson, SJ and Pei, Y and Chakroff, A and van den Broek, KL and Lamm, C and Vlasceanu, D and Constantino, SM and Rathje, S and Goldwert, D and Fang, K and Aglioti, SM and Alfano, M and Alvarado-Yepez, AJ and Andersen, A and Anseel, F and Apps, MAJ and Asadli, C and Awuor, FJ and Basaglia, P and Bélanger, JJ and Berger, S and Bertin, P and Białek, M and Bialobrzeska, O and Blaya-Burgo, M and Bleize, DNM and Bø, S and Boecker, L and Boggio, PS and Borau, S and Borau, S and Bos, B and Bouguettaya, A and Brauer, M and Brik, T and Briker, R and Brosch, T and Buchel, O and Buonauro, D and Butalia, R and Carvacho, H and Chamberlain, SAE and Chan, HY and Chow, D and Chung, D and Cian, L and Cohen-Eick, N and Contreras-Huerta, LS and Contu, D and Cristea, V and Cutler, J and D'Ottone, S and De Keersmaecker, J and Delcourt, S and Delouvée, S and Diel, K and Douglas, BD and Drupp, MA and Dubey, S and Ekmanis, J and Elbaek, CT and Elsherif, M and Engelhard, IM and Escher, YA and Etienne, TW and Farage, L and Farias, AR and Feuerriegel, S and Findor, A and Freira, L and Friese, M and Gains, NP and Gallyamova, A and Geiger, SJ and Genschow, O and Gjoneska, B and Gkinopoulos, T and Goldberg, B and Goldenberg, A and Gradidge, S and Grassini, S and Gray, K and Grelle, S and Griffin, SM and Grigoryan, L and Grigoryan, A and Grigoryev, D and Gruber, J and Guilaran, J and Hadar, B and Hahnel, UJJ and Halperin, E and Harvey, AJ and Haugestad, CAP and Herman, AM and Hershfield, HE and Himichi, T and Hine, DW and Hofmann, W and Howe, L and Huaman-Chulluncuy, ET and Huang, G and Ishii, T and Ito, A and Jia, F and Jost, JT and Jovanović, V and Jurgiel, D and Kácha, O and Kankaanpää, R and Kantorowicz, J and Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, E and Mintz, KK and Kaya, I and Kaya, O and Khachatryan, N and Klas, A and Klein, C and Klöckner, CA and Koppel, L and Kosachenko, AI and Kothe, EJ and Krebs, R and Krosch, AR and Krouwel, APM and Kyrychenko, Y and Lagomarsino, M and Cunningham, JL and Lees, J and Leung, TY and Levy, N and Lockwood, PL and Longoni, C and Ortega, AL and Loschelder, DD and Lu, JG and Luo, Y and Luomba, J and Lutz, AE and Majer, JM and Markowitz, E and Marsh, AA and Mascarenhas, KL and Mbilingi, B and Mbungu, W and McHugh, C and Meijers, MHC and Mercier, H and Mhagama, FL and Michalaki, K and Mikus, N and Milliron, SG and Mitkidis, P and Monge-Rodríguez, FS and Mora, YL and Morais, MJ and Moreau, D and Motoki, K and Moyano, M and Mus, M and Navajas, J and Nguyen, TL and Nguyen, DM and Nguyen, T and Niemi, L and Nijssen, SRR and Nilsonne, G and Nitschke, JP and Nockur, L and Okura, R and Öner, S and Özdoğru, AA and Palumbo, H and Panagopoulos, C and Panasiti, MS and Pärnamets, P and Paruzel-Czachura, M and Pavlov, YG and Payán-Gómez, C and Pearson, AR and da Costa, LP and Petrowsky, HM and Pfattheicher, S and Pham, NT and Ponizovskiy, V and Pretus, C and Rêgo, GG and Reimann, R and Rhoads, SA and Riano-Moreno, J and Richter, I and Röer, JP and Rosa-Sullivan, J and Ross, RM and Sabherwal, A and Saito, T and Sarrasin, O and Say, N and Schmid, K and Schmitt, MT and Schoenegger, P and Scholz, C and Schug, MG and Schulreich, S and Shreedhar, G and Shuman, E and Sivan, S and Sjåstad, H and Soliman, M and Soud, K and Spampatti, T and Sparkman, G and Spasovski, O and Stanley, SK and Stern, JA and Strahm, N and Suko, Y and Sul, S and Syropoulos, S and Taylor, NC and Tedaldi, E and Tinghög, G and Huynh, LDT and Travaglino, GA and Tsakiris, M and Tüter, &#x130; and Tyrala, M and Uluğ, &#xd6;M and Urbanek, A and Valko, D and van der Linden, S and van Schie, K and van Stekelenburg, A and Vanags, E and Västfjäll, D and Vesely, S and Vintr, J and Vranka, M and Wanguche, PO and Willer, R and Wojcik, AD and Xu, R and Yadav, A and Zawisza, M and Zhao, X and Zhao, J and Żuk, D and Van Bavel, JJ}, title = {The International Climate Psychology Collaboration: Climate change-related data collected from 63 countries.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1066}, pmid = {39353944}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {P400PS_190997//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; I3381//Austrian Science Fund (Fonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung)/ ; 61378//John Templeton Foundation (JTF)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change is currently one of humanity's greatest threats. To help scholars understand the psychology of climate change, we conducted an online quasi-experimental survey on 59,508 participants from 63 countries (collected between July 2022 and July 2023). In a between-subjects design, we tested 11 interventions designed to promote climate change mitigation across four outcomes: climate change belief, support for climate policies, willingness to share information on social media, and performance on an effortful pro-environmental behavioural task. Participants also reported their demographic information (e.g., age, gender) and several other independent variables (e.g., political orientation, perceptions about the scientific consensus). In the no-intervention control group, we also measured important additional variables, such as environmentalist identity and trust in climate science. We report the collaboration procedure, study design, raw and cleaned data, all survey materials, relevant analysis scripts, and data visualisations. This dataset can be used to further the understanding of psychological, demographic, and national-level factors related to individual-level climate action and how these differ across countries.}, }
@article {pmid39353820, year = {2024}, author = {Fusco, EJ and Falk, BG and Heimowitz, PJ and Lieurance, D and Parsons, EW and Rottler, CM and Thurman, LL and Evans, AE}, title = {The emerging invasive species and climate-change lexicon.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2024.08.005}, pmid = {39353820}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {The rapid diversification of terminology associated with invasion ecology is a known barrier to effective communication and management. These challenges are magnified by the addition of terms and concepts related to climate-induced range-shifting taxa and/or changes to impacts. Further, institutional policies and terminologies for invasive species introduce new ambiguities when considering climate change. To alleviate communication and application challenges, we introduce a conceptual framework that organizes climate-related invasion terms, revealing ambiguities and gaps. Additionally, we illustrate how these ambiguities can affect management with four case studies and consider situations where resolution can improve policy and management outcomes. The framework can help users avoid inconsistent use of terminology, and prioritize when to address management and policy consequences related to associated terminological ambiguity.}, }
@article {pmid39352946, year = {2024}, author = {Rao, S and David, S and Kaiser, ML}, title = {Ballot Earth: Democracy, Climate Change, and Our Collective Future.}, journal = {Social work}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/sw/swae043}, pmid = {39352946}, issn = {1545-6846}, }
@article {pmid39351373, year = {2024}, author = {Cliffe, RN and Ewart, HE and Scantlebury, DM and Kennedy, S and Avey-Arroyo, J and Mindich, D and Wilson, RP}, title = {Sloth metabolism may make survival untenable under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {e18168}, pmid = {39351373}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; *Oxygen Consumption/physiology ; *Sloths/metabolism ; Energy Metabolism/physiology ; Body Temperature ; Basal Metabolism ; Body Temperature Regulation/physiology ; Calorimetry, Indirect ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Although climate change is predicted to have a substantial effect on the energetic requirements of organisms, the longer-term implications are often unclear. Sloths are limited by the rate at which they can acquire energy and are unable to regulate core body temperature (Tb) to the extent seen in most mammals. Therefore, the metabolic impacts of climate change on sloths are expected to be profound. Here we use indirect calorimetry to measure the oxygen consumption (VO2) and Tb of highland and lowland two-fingered sloths (Choloepus hoffmanni) when exposed to a range of different ambient temperatures (Ta) (18 °C -34 °C), and additionally record changes in Tb and posture over several days in response to natural fluctuations in Ta. We use the resultant data to predict the impact of future climate change on the metabolic rate and Tb of the different sloth populations. The metabolic responses of sloths originating from the two sites differed at high Ta's, with lowland sloths invoking metabolic depression as temperatures rose above their apparent 'thermally-active zone' (TAZ), whereas highland sloths showed increased RMR. Based on climate change estimates for the year 2100, we predict that high-altitude sloths are likely to experience a substantial increase in metabolic rate which, due to their intrinsic energy processing limitations and restricted geographical plasticity, may make their survival untenable in a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid39349626, year = {2024}, author = {Kolanowska, M}, title = {Climate change will decrease the coverage of suitable niches for Asian medicinal orchid (Bulbophyllum odoratissimum) and its main phorophyte (Pistacia weinmannifolia).}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {22656}, pmid = {39349626}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Orchidaceae ; *Climate Change ; *Plants, Medicinal ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {Considering the global biodiversity crisis and the growing demand for medicinal plants, it is crucial to preserve therapeutically useful herbs. From a conservation management perspective under climate change, identifying areas that enable valuable natural resources to persist in the future is crucial. Machine learning-based models are commonly used to estimate the locations of climate refugia, which are critical for the effective species conservation. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of global warming on the epiphytic medicinal orchid-Bulbophyllum odoratissimum. Given how the long-term survival of plants inhabiting shrubs and trees depends on the availability of suitable phorophyets, in this research potential range changes in reported orchid plant hosts were evaluated. According to conducted analyses, global warming will cause a decline in the coverage of the suitable niches for B. odoratissimum and its main phorophyte. The most significant habitat loss in the case of the studied orchid and Pistacia weinmannifolia will be observed in the southern part of their geographical ranges and some new niches will simultaneously become available for these plants in the northern part. Climate change will significantly increase the overlap of geographical ranges of P. weinmannifolia and the orchid. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario trees will be available for more than 56% of the orchid population. Other analyzed phorophytes, will be available for B. odoratissimum to a very reduced extent, as orchids will only utilize these species as habitats only occasionally. This study provides data on the distribution of climatic refugia of B. odoratissimum under global warming. Moreover, this is the first evaluation of the future geographical ranges for its phorophytes. According to the conducted analyses, only one of the previously reported tree species which are inhabited by B. odoratissimum, P. weinmannifolia, can serve as a phorophyte for this orchid in the future. In this study, the areas designated as suitable for the occurrence of both orchids and their phorophytes should be considered priority conservation areas for the studied medicinal plants.}, }
@article {pmid39347454, year = {2024}, author = {Kaewunruen, S and Fu, H and Adebiyi, A and Sengsri, P}, title = {Digital twins for managing bridge climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Open research Europe}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {173}, pmid = {39347454}, issn = {2732-5121}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Bridges are vital construction infrastructures that almost every nation needs in order to function. Climate change is a significant issue, that especially affects the construction industry. It is very important that bridges are able to withstand the impacts of climate change and adaptation measures will be required to achieve this.<br><br>METHODS: The digital twin will be developed using BIM to manage the climate change adaptation measures for the bridges. A 6D BIM model will be created that includes the 3D Revit model of a bridge featuring climate change measures, the climate change adaptation measures timeline schedule, climate change adaptation cost estimation, and carbon emission estimation, which will be produced using Revit software, Navisworks, and Granta EduPack. The results will show how 6D BIM can be used to support the adaptation of bridges to the effects of climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: The findings underscore the efficacy of 6D BIM in enhancing bridge resilience against climate change impacts. The 3D model demonstrates integration of adaptation measures without compromising bridge functionality. Moreover, the 4D model's timeline scheduling facilitates hazard anticipation, project planning, communication enhancement, collaborative efforts, and project visualization. Cost estimations from the 5D model reveal varying costs among adaptation measures, while the 6D model highlights differences in carbon footprints. These BIM dimensions enable stakeholders to analyse effects on project costs and energy consumption, aiding sustainability and cost-efficiency considerations.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study exhibits the literature review analysis, the risk assessment, research on climate change adaptation strategies, and implementation using Revit 2022, Navisworks 2022, and Granta EduPack software. By contributing to the adaptation of bridges to climate change effects, the research has provided valuable insights and practical implications for enhancing bridge resilience globally.}, }
@article {pmid39347228, year = {2024}, author = {Papadiochou, A and Diamanti, A and Metallinou, D and Georgakopoulou, VE and Taskou, C and Kagkouras, I and Sarantaki, A}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Reproductive Health and Pregnancy Outcomes: A Systematic Review.}, journal = {Cureus}, volume = {16}, number = {8}, pages = {e68221}, pmid = {39347228}, issn = {2168-8184}, abstract = {Climate change has emerged as a significant global health challenge, with growing evidence linking environmental factors to adverse reproductive health outcomes. The primary objective of this review is to assess the effects of climate change-driven environmental factors, such as air pollution and temperature extremes, on reproductive health outcomes, including fertility rates, miscarriage, preterm birth, and congenital anomalies. A comprehensive search of PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science was conducted until July 2024. Studies included in the review were observational, experimental, and randomized controlled trials that reported quantitative data on reproductive outcomes in relation to climate-related environmental exposures. A total of 49 studies were selected for qualitative synthesis. The review found that increased exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5), extreme temperatures, and proximity to traffic were consistently associated with reduced fertility, increased risks of miscarriage, preterm birth, and low birth weight. Adverse effects were particularly pronounced among vulnerable populations, such as pregnant women of lower socioeconomic status and those living in disaster-prone areas. The studies also highlighted potential transgenerational effects, with prenatal exposure to environmental stressors influencing the long-term health of offspring. The findings underscore the urgent need for public health interventions and policies to mitigate environmental exposures that negatively impact reproductive health. Future research should focus on longitudinal and interventional studies to establish causal relationships and inform effective public health strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39344378, year = {2024}, author = {Nyzhnyk, T and Kots, S and Pukhtaievych, P}, title = {Rhizobium Inoculant and Seed-Applied Fungicide Effects Improve the Drought Tolerance of Soybean Plants as an Effective Agroecological Solution under Climate Change Conditions.}, journal = {Frontiers in bioscience (Elite edition)}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {23}, doi = {10.31083/j.fbe1603023}, pmid = {39344378}, issn = {1945-0508}, support = {0121U107432//National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine/ ; }, mesh = {*Glycine max/microbiology/drug effects/growth &amp; development ; *Fungicides, Industrial/pharmacology ; *Droughts ; *Climate Change ; *Seeds/drug effects/microbiology ; Rhizobium/physiology/drug effects ; Bradyrhizobium/drug effects/physiology ; Antioxidants/metabolism ; Symbiosis ; Drought Resistance ; Dioxoles ; Pyrroles ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Rhizobial inoculation in combination with fungicidal seed treatment is an effective solution for improving soybean resistance to modern climate changes due to the maximum implementation of the plant's stress-protective antioxidant properties and their nitrogen-fixing potential, which will contribute to the preservation of the environment.<br><br>METHODS: Model ecosystems at different stages of legume-rhizobial symbiosis formation, created by treatment before sowing soybean seeds with a fungicide (fludioxonil, 25 g/L) and inoculation with an active strain of Bradyrhizobium japonicum (titer 109 cells per mL), were subjected to microbiological, biochemical, and physiological testing methods in controlled and field conditions.<br><br>RESULTS: Seed treatment with fungicide and rhizobia showed different patterns in the dynamics of key antioxidant enzymes in soybean nodules under drought conditions. Superoxide dismutase activity increased by 32.7% under moderate stress, while catalase increased by 90.6% under long-term stress. An increase in the antioxidant enzyme activity induced the regulation of lipoperoxidation processes during drought and after the restoration of irrigation. Regeneration after stress was evident in soybean plants with a combination of fungicide seed treatment and rhizobial inoculant, where enzyme levels and lipoperoxidation processes returned to control plant levels. Applying seed treatment with fungicide and Rhizobium led to the preservation of the symbiotic apparatus functioning in drought conditions. As proof of this, molecular nitrogen fixation by nodules has a higher efficiency of 25.6% compared to soybeans without fungicide treatment. In the field, fungicidal treatment of seeds in a complex with rhizobia inoculant induced prolongation of the symbiotic apparatus functioning in the reproductive period of soybean ontogenesis. This positively affected the nitrogen-fixing activity of soybeans during the pod formation stage by more than 71.7%, as well as increasing soybean yield by 12.7% in the field.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The application of Rhizobium inoculant and fungicide to seeds contributed to the development of antioxidant protection of soybean plants during droughts due to the activation of key enzymatic complexes and regulation of lipoperoxidation processes, which have a positive effect on nitrogen fixation and productivity of soybeans. This is a necessary element in soybean agrotechnologies to improve plant adaptation and resilience in the context of modern climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39342762, year = {2024}, author = {Schwartz, SA}, title = {The great disruption: Climate change provoked migration and its effect on American healthcare.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {103046}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2024.103046}, pmid = {39342762}, issn = {1878-7541}, }
@article {pmid39341641, year = {2024}, author = {Romanello, M and Costello, A}, title = {The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: competing interests and optimism bias - Authors' reply.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {404}, number = {10459}, pages = {1197-1198}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01492-2}, pmid = {39341641}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Optimism ; Conflict of Interest ; Global Health ; Bias ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid39341640, year = {2024}, author = {Brink, N and Chersich, MF}, title = {The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: competing interests and optimism bias.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {404}, number = {10459}, pages = {1196}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01490-9}, pmid = {39341640}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; Bias ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; *Optimism ; }, }
@article {pmid39341639, year = {2024}, author = {Butler, CD and Combs Bowles, D and Hanigan, IC and Harmer, A and Potter, JD}, title = {The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: competing interests and optimism bias.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {404}, number = {10459}, pages = {1196-1197}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01491-0}, pmid = {39341639}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; Bias ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; *Optimism ; }, }
@article {pmid39341638, year = {2024}, author = {Romanello, M and Beggs, PJ and Cai, W and Gordon-Strachan, G and Hartinger, S and Murray, K and Tonne, C}, title = {The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: representation matters - Authors' reply.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {404}, number = {10459}, pages = {1195-1196}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01915-9}, pmid = {39341638}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Global Health ; Periodicals as Topic ; COVID-19/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid39341637, year = {2024}, author = {Street, R and Wright, CY}, title = {The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: representation matters.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {404}, number = {10459}, pages = {1194}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01489-2}, pmid = {39341637}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; }, }
@article {pmid39341629, year = {2024}, author = {Montardi, C and Grange, L and Barde, F and Chevalier, K}, title = {[Emerging infectious diseases in the perspective of climate change and population migration].}, journal = {La Revue de medecine interne}, volume = {45}, number = {9S1}, pages = {S5-S8}, doi = {10.1016/S0248-8663(24)00774-4}, pmid = {39341629}, issn = {1768-3122}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology ; Emigration and Immigration/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Human Migration ; }, }
@article {pmid39341251, year = {2024}, author = {Mikaelyan, AS and Sergeeva, AV and Pautova, LA and Chasovnikov, VK and Gagarin, VI}, title = {75-Year dynamics of the black sea phytoplankton in association with eutrophication and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176448}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176448}, pmid = {39341251}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Based on a database containing species records obtained from 1948 to 2022 and a hydrochemical database, long-term changes in the biomass and taxonomic structure of phytoplankton in the deep-sea basin of the Black Sea were analysed in the stratified period from April to October. Over 75 years, a significant increase in concentration of nitrate, a weak increase in phosphate and a strong decrease in dissolved silicate were observed in the nutricline. The biomass of diatoms and total phytoplankton increased several times during the peak of eutrophication in 1991-1993, then decreased by the 2000s and has again shown an increasing trend in the last 15 years. The number of species dominant in biomass has halved from the 1940s-60s to the 2010s. The primary beneficiaries were the large- and medium-celled diatoms Pseudosolenia сalcar-avis and Proboscia alata, as well as the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, the main dominant species of the last decade. Most noticeable was the increase in the amplitude and duration of the regular annual May-July bloom of E. huxleyi. Over the past three decades, its biomass has increased by more than an order of magnitude, accounting for about 40 % of the total phytoplankton biomass. Development of the large- and medium-celled diatoms, as well as the decrease in biomass of silicoflagellates, can be, at least partly, associated with the long-term decline in dissolved silicate in the upper layers. The trend towards a decrease in dinoflagellate biomass is probably associated with increased mixing intensity in the water column. Over the study period, the total phytoplankton biomass was positively related to nitrate stock in the water column. Short-term period (from one to several years) interannual variability was influenced predominantly by hydrophysical processes, primarily the intensity of winter convection. After cold winters with intense involvement of deep nutrients in the upper layers, the biomass of diatoms, coccolithophores and total phytoplankton increased. Thus, fluctuations in winter weather or local climate reduced or enhanced the effect of eutrophication, sometimes leading to the time gap between the peak in nitrate stock and phytoplankton biomass. The case of the Black Sea illustrates the complex pattern of the response of a marine ecosystem to the simultaneous impacts of anthropogenic and climate changes, leading to significant alterations in the functioning of the biological carbon pump.}, }
@article {pmid39341248, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, Y and Zhu, DZ and Loewen, MR and Zhang, W and van Duin, B and Mahmood, K}, title = {Impacts of climate change on urban stormwater runoff quantity and quality in a cold region.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176439}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176439}, pmid = {39341248}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change poses significant challenges to urban environments affecting both flood risks and stormwater pollutant loadings. However, studies on variations in stormwater runoff quantity and quality in cold regions, which are highly sensitive to climate change, are notably limited. Integrating climatic, hydrologic, and hydraulic modelling, the study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on stormwater runoff volume and pollutant dynamics in a Canadian urban watershed (Calgary). A two-year field program was conducted to support the calibration and validation of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Intensity-duration-frequency curves were employed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on peak flow rate and flooding duration. In addition, typical dry, average, and wet years were applied to continuously simulate stormwater runoff quantity and quality during the 2050s and 2080s. The results suggest substantial increases in peak flow rates and flooding durations, particularly for the 5-year return period rainfall, with 1-h, 4-h, and 24-h peak inflow rates increasing by 74.3 % (170.7 %), 89.2 % (158.4 %), and 64.1 % (102.8 %) in the 2050s (2080s) Furthermore, the runoff quantity is projected to rise by 2.4-10.2 % in the 2050s and 11.8-17.5 % in the 2080s. Total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) loadings are anticipated to increase by 2.0-36.1 %, 3.1-21.4 %, and 4.1-20.7 %, respectively. As a result, the current stormwater system could overload and stormwater quality is likely to deteriorate under the impact of climate change. The findings are beneficial for cold regions to develop adaptive strategies that enhance urban water security and environmental sustainability under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39341238, year = {2024}, author = {Bruni, E and Lugato, E and Chenu, C and Guenet, B}, title = {European croplands under climate change: Carbon input changes required to increase projected soil organic carbon stocks.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176525}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176525}, pmid = {39341238}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in agricultural systems is a pivotal strategy for promoting soil health and mitigating climate change. Global initiatives have set ambitious targets, aspiring to achieve an annual SOC stock increase of 4 ‰. In the European Union, the recently approved Nature Restoration Law aims to increase SOC stock trends in the top 30 cm of cropland mineral soils. However, current monitoring and reporting practices in some countries rely on simplistic SOC models with default parameters, which may not provide reliable predictions. In this paper, we study the feasibility of a 4 ‰ target in European croplands (i.e., an aspirational target proposed by The international "4 per 1000" Initiative), through estimations of required C input changes. To ensure robust predictions, we propose a novel calibration approach that links model parameters to pedo-climatic variables via statistical relationships from 16 long-term experiments. The effectiveness of the method is evaluated for three SOC models across 4281 sites from the European LUCAS soil survey. Our findings demonstrate that the statistical calibration of the multi-model ensemble improves the accuracy of 2015 and 2018 SOC stock predictions, compared to default parameterization. This improvement was however mainly due to the substantial enhancement of one of the models. According to the weighted multi-model mean, median C input changes to reach a 4 ‰ target for Northern, Central, and Southern Europe stand at 1.85, 1.20, and 0.13 Mg C ha[-1] yr[-1] under RCP 2.6, and 2.21, 1.26, and -0.10 Mg C ha[-1] yr[-1] under RCP 6.0, respectively. To achieve the aspirational 4 ‰ target, estimated C input change requirements exceed the predicted changes in net primary productivity under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0. This emphasizes the importance of strategic land-use and land-management interventions to enhance SOC stocks.}, }
@article {pmid39340120, year = {2024}, author = {Sakai, Y}, title = {Tackling global warming.}, journal = {Asian journal of endoscopic surgery}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {e13390}, doi = {10.1111/ases.13390}, pmid = {39340120}, issn = {1758-5910}, }
@article {pmid39338116, year = {2024}, author = {Perreault-Carranza, T and Ni, V and Savoie, J and Saucier, J and Frenette, J and Jbilou, J}, title = {Core Competencies of the Public Health Workforce in Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events Preparedness, Response, and Recovery: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {39338116}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {202303FO3-503311-FOP-CGBA-179522.//CIHR-Catalyst Grant: Chief Public Health Officer (CPHO) Report./ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Humans ; *Extreme Weather ; Professional Competence ; Disaster Planning ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to public health and safety, necessitating an urgent, coordinated response. Public health officials must be well-trained to effectively prepare for, respond to, and recover from extreme weather events. Despite emerging frameworks, a gap remains in their systematic application, risking future unpreparedness. This review aimed to identify the necessary competencies for public health professionals to manage climate change and the best methods to teach these skills. An academic librarian helped develop a keyword chain for a PubMed search, which included original articles and reviews concerning our research questions published in English or French between 1 January 2013 and 31 January 2024. Out of 255 potential articles, 31 were included in this scoping review. The results aligned with our objectives, revealing three main themes: core competencies, training and pedagogy strategies, and assessment approaches for public health professionals' preparedness, responses, and recovery in the context of climate change and extreme weather events. This scoping review enabled us to provide a set of clear recommendations for future research and practice in training the public health workforce for managing extreme weather events and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39338041, year = {2024}, author = {Hannachi, T and Yakimova, S and Somat, A}, title = {A Follow up on the Continuum Theory of Eco-Anxiety: Analysis of the Climate Change Anxiety Scale Using Item Response Theory among French Speaking Population.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {39338041}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {0//Rennes 2 university/ ; 0//Region of Brittany/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Anxiety/psychology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Female ; Psychometrics ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; France ; Aged ; }, abstract = {The mental health impact of the environmental crisis, particularly eco-anxiety, is a growing research topic whose measurement still lacks consensus. This study aims to use item response theory (IRT) to gain a deeper understanding of the constructs measured by existing questionnaires. To conduct this review, we applied the graded response model with the help of the MIRT package in R on open-access data from the short French version of the Climate Change Anxiety Questionnaire, which measures cognitive-emotional impairment and functional impairment. The models tested in this study are the one, two, and three-factor models, and the bifactor model. After model selection, the psychometric properties of the selected model were tested. Our results suggest that the unidimensional model seems to be the most appropriate for measuring eco-anxiety. The item difficulty parameter extracted from the IRT enabled us to discuss the severity levels of the items comprising this tool. The Climate Change Anxiety Questionnaire appears to be more appropriate for measuring moderate to severe eco-anxiety. Avenues for improving this questionnaire and the measurement of eco-anxiety in general are then discussed.}, }
@article {pmid39336645, year = {2024}, author = {Wallon, S and Rigal, F and Melo, CD and Elias, RB and Borges, PAV}, title = {Unveiling Arthropod Responses to Climate Change: A Functional Trait Analysis in Intensive Pastures.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects15090677}, pmid = {39336645}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {FCT-UIDB/00329/2020-2024//FCT/ ; ACORES-01-0145-FEDER-000082//Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional (FEDER)/ ; M1.1.A/FUNC.UI&amp;D/010/2021-2024//Dire&#xe7;&#xe3;o Regional da Ci&#xea;ncia, Inova&#xe7;&#xe3;o e Desenvolvimento (DRCT)/ ; M3.1.a/F/018/2020//Dire&#xe7;&#xe3;o Regional da Ci&#xea;ncia, Inova&#xe7;&#xe3;o e Desenvolvimento (DRCT)/ ; }, abstract = {This study investigates the impact of elevated temperatures on arthropod communities in intensively managed pastures on the volcanic island of Terceira, Azores (Portugal), using a functional trait approach. Open Top Chambers (OTCs) were employed to simulate increased temperatures, and the functional traits of ground dwelling arthropods were analyzed along a small elevation gradient (180-400 m) during winter and summer. Key findings include lower abundances of herbivores, coprophagous organisms, detritivores, and fungivores at high elevations in summer, with predators showing a peak at middle elevations. Larger-bodied arthropods were more prevalent at higher elevations during winter, while beetles exhibited distinct ecological traits, with larger species peaking at middle elevations. The OTCs significantly affected the arthropod communities, increasing the abundance of herbivores, predators, coprophagous organisms, and fungivores during winter by alleviating environmental stressors. Notably, iridescent beetles decreased with elevation and were more common inside OTCs at lower elevations, suggesting a thermoregulatory advantage. The study underscores the importance of considering functional traits in assessing the impacts of climate change on arthropod communities and highlights the complex, species-specific nature of their responses to environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid39336643, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, Z and Peng, Y and Xu, D and Zhuo, Z}, title = {Meta-Analysis and MaxEnt Model Prediction of the Distribution of Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley in China under the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects15090675}, pmid = {39336643}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2022NSFSCO986//Sichuan Province Science and Technology Support Program/ ; 20A007, 20E051, 21E040, and 22kA011//China West Normal University Support Program/ ; }, abstract = {Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley is a pest that poses a significant threat to agricultural crops, especially cotton, and is now widely distributed across many regions worldwide. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis on the collected experimental data and found that within the suitable temperature range, the survival rate of P. solenopsis increases with rising temperatures, indicating that climate plays a decisive role in its distribution. Using the MaxEnt model this study predicted that under three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the distribution of P. solenopsis will expand and move towards higher latitudes. Climate change is the primary factor influencing changes in pest distribution. We conducted a meta-analysis of P. solenopsis, including seven independent studies covering 221 observation results, and examined the impact of temperature ranging from 18 °C to 39 °C on the developmental cycle of P. solenopsis. As the temperature rises, the development cycle of P. solenopsis gradually decreases. Additionally, by combining the MaxEnt model, we predicted the current and potential future distribution range of P. solenopsis. The results show that under future climate warming, the distribution area of P. solenopsis in China will expand. This research provides a theoretical basis for early monitoring and control of this pest's occurrence and spread. Therefore, the predictive results of this study will provide important information for managers in monitoring P. solenopsis and help them formulate relevant control strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39336094, year = {2024}, author = {Abedin, I and Mukherjee, T and Abedin, J and Kim, HW and Kundu, S}, title = {Habitat Loss in the IUCN Extent: Climate Change-Induced Threat on the Red Goral (Naemorhedus baileyi) in the Temperate Mountains of South Asia.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology13090667}, pmid = {39336094}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {Pukyong National University 2023 Research Grant (202315370001)//Pukyong National University/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has severely impacted many species, causing rapid declines or extinctions within their essential ecological niches. This deterioration is expected to worsen, particularly in remote high-altitude regions like the Himalayas, which are home to diverse flora and fauna, including many mountainous ungulates. Unfortunately, many of these species lack adaptive strategies to cope with novel climatic conditions. The Red Goral (Naemorhedus baileyi) is a cliff-dwelling species classified as "Vulnerable" by the IUCN due to its small population and restricted range extent. This species has the most restricted range of all goral species, residing in the temperate mountains of northeastern India, northern Myanmar, and China. Given its restricted range and small population, this species is highly threatened by climate change and habitat disruptions, making habitat mapping and modeling crucial for effective conservation. This study employs an ensemble approach (BRT, GLM, MARS, and MaxEnt) in species distribution modeling to assess the distribution, habitat suitability, and connectivity of this species, addressing critical gaps in its understanding. The findings reveal deeply concerning trends, as the model identified only 21,363 km[2] (13.01%) of the total IUCN extent as suitable habitat under current conditions. This limited extent is alarming, as it leaves the species with very little refuge to thrive. Furthermore, this situation is compounded by the fact that only around 22.29% of this identified suitable habitat falls within protected areas (PAs), further constraining the species' ability to survive in a protected landscape. The future projections paint even degraded scenarios, with a predicted decline of over 34% and excessive fragmentation in suitable habitat extent. In addition, the present study identifies precipitation seasonality and elevation as the primary contributing predictors to the distribution of this species. Furthermore, the study identifies nine designated transboundary PAs within the IUCN extent of the Red Goral and the connectivity among them to highlight the crucial role in supporting the species' survival over time. Moreover, the Dibang Wildlife Sanctuary (DWLS) and Hkakaborazi National Park are revealed as the PAs with the largest extent of suitable habitat in the present scenario. Furthermore, the highest mean connectivity was found between DWLS and Mehao Wildlife Sanctuary (0.0583), while the lowest connectivity was observed between Kamlang Wildlife Sanctuary and Namdapha National Park (0.0172). The study also suggests strategic management planning that is a vital foundation for future research and conservation initiatives, aiming to ensure the long-term survival of the species in its natural habitat.}, }
@article {pmid39335237, year = {2024}, author = {Belovsky, GE and Slade, JB}, title = {Climate Change and Herbivores: Forty Years in a Bunchgrass Prairie.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {18}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani14182647}, pmid = {39335237}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {DEB-78-02069//National Science Foundation/ ; BSR-83-07352//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-93-17984//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-97-07564//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-04-15390//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-09-18306//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-14-56511//National Science Foundation/ ; Year 1979//National Geographic Society/ ; Year 1983//Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studies, University of Michigan/ ; Years 1992-1996//Utah State University Agricultural Experiment Station/ ; Years 1989-1994//USDA/GHIPM/ ; Year 1985-1986//University of Michigan Vice-President for Research/ ; Year 1999-2000//Agricultural Research Service/ ; 00-35101-9267//USDA-CSREES/NRICGP/ ; }, abstract = {Wild herbivore responses to anthropogenic climate change are often projected to be habitat and geographic range shifts as warmer conditions reduce the quantity and nutritional quality of forage plants, which makes species presence/absence a focus. Since 1978, herbivore abundances at the National Bison Range, MT, USA, were measured for grasshoppers (catch-effort), microtine rodents (runway density), and ungulates (drives and round-ups), along with climate and vegetation quantity (biomass) and quality (nitrogen content and chemical solubility related to digestibility). Counter to expectation with warming and drying, forage biomass increased as grass biomass increased more than dicot biomass decreased, and forage quality (solubility) increased. Consequently, herbivores that consume a grass diet (>25% grass: certain grasshoppers, microtines, bighorn sheep, elk, bison) increased in abundance, while herbivores consuming less grass declined (certain grasshoppers, pronghorn, whitetail, and mule deer). The result is an 18% increase in herbivore abundance and herbivory, counter to climate change expectations. Historically, grasshoppers consumed 46% more vegetation than mammals; now, they consume only 14% more, as grasshoppers did not increase as expected with climate change. Therefore, herbivores respond rapidly to climate-induced vegetation changes, and this is not a simple loss/addition of species, but changing trophic dynamics, which requires more knowledge of ecosystem dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid39334228, year = {2024}, author = {Sulistiadi, W and Wasir, R and Thalib, W and Ayuningtyas, D and Bawazier, N and Buskens, E}, title = {Building health systems resilience: understanding the social, economic, and cultural impacts of climate change from stakeholders' perspectives in Indonesia.}, journal = {Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique}, volume = {82}, number = {1}, pages = {168}, pmid = {39334228}, issn = {0778-7367}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This study explores stakeholders' perspectives on the direct, social, economic, and cultural impacts of climate change on health in Indonesia and identifies possible strategies to enhance health system resilience.<br><br>METHODS: This study followed the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research (COREQ) guidelines to ensure comprehensive and transparent reporting. Purposive sampling was used to select 22 stakeholders with relevant expertise, including government officials, representatives from international and professional health organizations, health workers, and community representatives. Semi-structured interviews were conducted, and data were analyzed using directed content analysis. Data saturation was reached when no new themes emerged.<br><br>RESULTS: The findings reveal significant challenges to Indonesia's health system due to climate change. Community awareness varies widely, with higher levels in disaster-prone areas. Socially, climate change has fostered community cooperation through collective adaptation efforts but has also led to tensions due to inequitable resource distribution. Economically, rising healthcare costs and financial instability, particularly in rural and disaster-prone regions, place a strain on the system. Culturally, there is a growing emphasis on environmental conservation, promoting eco-friendly practices and the integration of traditional and modern health approaches.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Building health system resilience in Indonesia requires addressing the social, economic, and cultural impacts of climate change. Possible strategies include enhancing public health education, strengthening healthcare infrastructure, improving inter-agency coordination, and leveraging technology to support effective responses to climate-related health threats, ultimately promoting national health, social stability, and economic growth.}, }
@article {pmid39334003, year = {2024}, author = {Hassani, L and Kondar, RT and Narimani, S and Ghanbarnejad, A}, title = {Adaptive measures to deal with the next pandemic caused by climate change in at-risk groups.}, journal = {BMC psychiatry}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {634}, pmid = {39334003}, issn = {1471-244X}, mesh = {Humans ; *COVID-19/psychology/epidemiology ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Social Support ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Iran/epidemiology ; *Stress, Psychological/psychology ; *Climate Change ; Adult ; Diabetes Mellitus/psychology/epidemiology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Aged ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The intensity of the perceived stress during the pandemic is a very basic variable for the risk analysis and proper disaster response. The present study was conducted with the aim of determining the relationship between perceived stress and social support during covid-19 in diabetic patients in order to design a suitable plan for a possible pandemic.<br><br>METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2021 on 212 diabetics in Hormozgan province / southern Iran. Data were collected online using Whatsapp using social support and perceived stress questionnaires specific to COVID-19. Data were analyzed by SPSS 22 software using Pearson correlation coefficient tests.<br><br>RESULTS: The mean and standard deviation (SD) of the stress score was 18.46&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;4.41. Mean&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;SD of social support dimensions were emotional support 30.76&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;5.96, information support 21.63&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;4.56, instrumental support 32.48&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;6.68, and evaluative support 23.53&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;4.83. There was a significant correlation between emotional support (r =-0.377, P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001) and instrumental support (r =-0.280, P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001) with perceived stress.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The inverse relationship between emotional and instrumental support and perceived stress in diabetic patients during the Covid-19 pandemic suggests that health promotion interventions focus on increasing these two forms of social support in order to reduce stress during disasters. Especially when there are warnings about the release of microbial agents from melting polar ice and the possibility of the next epidemic.}, }
@article {pmid39333409, year = {2024}, author = {Adom, RK and Reid, M and Afuye, GA and Simatele, MD}, title = {Assessing the Implications of Deforestation and Climate Change on Rural Livelihood in Ghana: a Multidimensional Analysis and Solution-Based Approach.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39333409}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {129481//Global Change Social Sciences Research Programme/ ; }, abstract = {The Ashanti region in Ghana, abundant in natural resources such as forests and vegetation biomes, significantly supports the livelihoods of a significant portion of the population. The sustainable management of forest resources remains a significant challenge to achieving environmental and economic growth and poverty alleviation. The study aims to identify the drivers of deforestation and assess its impact on the livelihoods of the poor and vulnerable communities in the Ashanti region. The study utilized qualitative and space-based data to examine the patterns of vegetation cover and deforestation from 2000 to 2020. The results revealed moderate to sparse vegetation in Ashanti from 2002, 2005, 2011, 2015, 2017, and 2018, with no vegetation in the northcentral part, attributed to climate change, agricultural practices, government policies, and deforestation-related disasters. The study found a significant correlation (R[2] = 0.8197) between years and deforestation areas, especially in 2018 at around 16,000 Sqkm, indicating an exponential increase with severe implications for sustainable livelihoods. Much of these changes were reflected in 2020 with a high peak of deforestation towards the southeastern parts of the region. Additionally, the results show that the poor groups are not passive actors but are actively involved in identifying systems and processes through which to build their adaptive capacity and resilience to environmental and climate change-induced changes. The findings provide evidence-based and all-inclusive approaches that would encourage vulnerable and marginalized groups to participate in the co-production and co-creation of policies and strategies. This outcome is geared towards transformative and sustainable communities while ensuring efficient and effective response and recovery capacities of deforested lands.}, }
@article {pmid39333224, year = {2024}, author = {Ullah, S and Ali, U and Rashid, M and Haider, S and Kisi, O and Vishwakarma, DK and Raza, A and Alataway, A and Dewidar, AZ and Mattar, MA}, title = {Evaluating land use and climate change impacts on Ravi river flows using GIS and hydrological modeling approach.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {22080}, pmid = {39333224}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The study investigates the interplay of land use dynamics and climate change on the hydrological regime of the Ravi River using a comprehensive approach integrating Geographic Information System (GIS), remote sensing, and hydrological modeling at the catchment scale. Employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, simulations were conducted to evaluate the hydrological response of the Ravi River to both current conditions and projected future scenarios of land use and climate change. This study differs from previous ones by simulating future land use and climate scenarios, offering a solid framework for understanding their impact on river flow dynamics. Model calibration and validation were performed for distinct periods (1999-2002 and 2003-2005), yielding satisfactory performance indicators (NSE, R[2], PBIAS = 0.85, 0.83, and 10.01 in calibration and 0.87, 0.89, and 7.2 in validation). Through supervised classification techniques on Landsat imagery and TerrSet modeling, current and future land use maps were generated, revealing a notable increase in built-up areas from 1990 to 2020 and projections indicating further expansion by 31.7% from 2020 to 2100. Climate change projections under different socioeconomic pathways (SSP2 and SSP5) were derived for precipitation and temperature, with statistical downscaling applied using the CMhyd model. Results suggest substantial increases in precipitation (10.9 - 14.9%) and temperature (12.2 - 15.9%) across the SSP scenarios by the end of the century. Two scenarios, considering future climate conditions with current and future land use patterns, were analyzed to understand their combined impact on hydrological responses. In both scenarios, inflows to the Ravi River are projected to rise significantly (19.4 - 28.4%) from 2016 to 2100, indicating a considerable alteration in seasonal flow patterns. Additionally, historical data indicate a concerning trend of annual groundwater depth decline (0.8 m/year) from 1996 to 2020, attributed to land use and climate changes. The findings underscore the urgency for planners and managers to incorporate climate and land cover considerations into their strategies, given the potential implications for water resource management and environmental sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid39333161, year = {2024}, author = {Jiang, F and Seager, R and Cane, MA}, title = {A climate change signal in the tropical Pacific emerges from decadal variability.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {8291}, pmid = {39333161}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {OCE-2219829//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; AGS-2101214//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; AGS-2217618//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; DESC0023333//U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)/ ; }, abstract = {The eastern tropical Pacific has defied the global warming trend. There has been a debate about whether this observed trend is forced or natural (i.e., the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; IPO) and this study shows that there are two patterns, one that oscillates along with the IPO, and one that is emerging since the mid-1950s, herein called the Pacific Climate Change (PCC) pattern. Here we show these have distinctive and distinguishable atmosphere-ocean signatures. While the IPO features a meridionally broad wedge-shaped SST pattern, the PCC pattern is marked by a narrow equatorial cooling band. These different SST patterns are related to distinct wind-driven ocean dynamical processes. We further show that the recent trends during the satellite era are a combination of IPO and PCC. Our findings set a path to distinguish climate change signals from internal variability through the underlying dynamics of each.}, }
@article {pmid39333116, year = {2024}, author = {Wen, Y and Guo, J and Wang, F and Hao, Z and Fei, Y and Yang, A and Fan, Y and Chan, FKS}, title = {A high-resolution dataset for future compound hot-dry events under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1047}, pmid = {39333116}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {IES\R2\202075//Royal Society/ ; 2023M730282//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is leading to an increase in compound hot-dry events, significantly impacting human habitats. Analysing the causes and effects of these events requires precise data, yet most meteorological data focus on variables rather than extremes, which hinders relevant research. A daily compound hot-dry events (CHDEs) dataset was developed from 1980 to 2100 under various socioeconomic scenarios, using the latest NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset to address this. The dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees (approximately 30 kilometres), including three indicators, namely D (the yearly sum of hot-dry extreme days), prI (the intensity of daily precipitation), and tasI (the intensity of daily temperature). To validate the accuracy of the dataset, we compared observational data from China (National Meteorological Information Center, NMIC), Europe (ERA5), and North America (ERA5). Results show close alignment with estimated values from the observational daily dataset, both temporally and spatially. The predictive interval (PI) pass rates for the CHDEs dataset exhibit notably high values. For a 90% PI, D has a pass rate exceeding 85%, whilst prI and tasI respectively show a pass rate above 70% and 95%. These results underscore its suitability for conducting global and regional studies about compound hot-dry events.}, }
@article {pmid39332716, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, Y and Ni, J and Gu, J and Liu, S and Huang, Y and Sadeghi, H}, title = {Influence of biopolymer-vegetation interaction on soil hydro-mechanical properties under climate change: A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176535}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176535}, pmid = {39332716}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Soil reinforcement using eco-friendly biopolymer and vegetation has been increasingly popular in geotechnical engineering. However, research is still in its early stages due to complex biochemical interactions between biopolymers and plants. Moreover, under the increasing climate change, extreme weather poses severe challenges to the effectiveness of biopolymer-vegetation on soil treatment. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive review and summary of recent research on the influence of biopolymer and biopolymer-vegetation interaction on soil properties. First, this paper evaluates the various hydraulic and mechanical properties of soils after biopolymer treatment, including compaction characteristics, Atterberg limits, unconfined compressive strength, shear strength, tensile strength, permeability, water holding capacity, slaking behavior, and erosion resistance, as well as the influence of climate change. Then, the application of biopolymer-vegetation measure in the current field of soil treatment is summarized, and the biopolymer-vegetation interaction is discussed, including the influence of biopolymers on plant germination rate, growth conditions, wilting rate, and other indicators. Under drought and water scarcity conditions, biopolymers can improve soil mechanical strength and water retention, reducing plant wilting rate, and enhancing the survival ability of plants under extreme climate changes. Appropriate biopolymers can increase soil strength by >50 %, reduce strength and mass losses from dry-wet cycles to within 10 %, enhance grass seed germination rates by over 60 %, and reduce wilting rates under drought stress by 80 %. Finally, the research gaps and deficiencies in this field are highlighted, and potential research hotspots that can be strengthened and studied in the future are proposed. This review demonstrates the biopolymer-vegetation measure to be a new ecological restoration technology with widespread application prospects.}, }
@article {pmid39332289, year = {2024}, author = {Kushwaha, NL and Sushanth, K and Patel, A and Kisi, O and Ahmed, A and Abd-Elaty, I}, title = {Beach nourishment for coastal aquifersimpacted by climate change and population growth using machine learning approaches.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {122535}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122535}, pmid = {39332289}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Groundwater in coastal regions is threatened by saltwater intrusion (SWI). Beach nourishment is used in this study to manage SWI in the Biscayne aquifer, Florida, USA, using a 3D SEAWAT model nourishment considering the future sea level rise and freshwater over-pumping. The present study focused on the development and comparative evaluation of seven machine learning (ML) models, i.e., additive regression (AR), support vector machine (SVM), reduced error pruning tree (REPTree), Bagging, random subspace (RSS), random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the SWI using beach nourishment. The performance of ML models was assessed using statistical indicators such as coefficient of determination (R[2]), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), means absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and root relative squared error (RRSE) along with the graphical inspection (i.e., Radar and Taylor diagram). The findings indicate that applying SVM, Bagging, RSS, and RF models has great potential in predicting the SWI values with limited data in the study area. The RF model emerged as the best fit and closely matched observed values; it obtained R[2] (0.999), NSE (0.999), MAE (0.324), RRSE (0.209), and RMSE (0.416) during the testing process. The present study concludes that the RF model could be a valuable tool for accurate predictions of SWI and effective water management in coastal areas.}, }
@article {pmid39330067, year = {2024}, author = {Karman, A and Banaś, J}, title = {The Evaluation of Climate Change Competitiveness via DEA Models and Shannon Entropy: EU Regions.}, journal = {Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {26}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {39330067}, issn = {1099-4300}, support = {2019/35/B/HS5/01548.//National Science Centre, Poland/ ; }, abstract = {The purpose of this paper is to assess the efficiency of climate change competitiveness via a case study on EU regions by using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model and Shannon entropy. First, on the same premise as similar composite indicators, we develop a DEA model to assess the relative performance of the regions in climate change competitiveness. Then, we extend our calculations with a DEA-like model and Shannon entropy to derive global estimates of a new competitiveness index by using common weights. Results show that the proposed DEA-Entropy model enables the construction of a regional climate change competitiveness index among all regions via a set of common weights. The proposed model's common weight structure demonstrates more discriminative power compared to the weights obtained through pure DEA or DEA-like methods. In order to validate the proposed DEA-Entropy model, it was applied to 120 EU regions. The results are meaningful for the regions to improve their competitiveness.}, }
@article {pmid39327477, year = {2024}, author = {He, Y and Shu, Q and Wang, Q and Song, Z and Zhang, M and Wang, S and Zhang, L and Bi, H and Pan, R and Qiao, F}, title = {Arctic Amplification of marine heatwaves under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {8265}, pmid = {39327477}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) and total heat exposures (THEs), extreme warming events occurring across the global oceans, seriously threaten marine ecosystems and coastal communities as the climate warms. However, future changes in MHWs and THEs in the Arctic Ocean, where unique marine ecosystems are present, are still unclear. Here, based on the latest CMIP6 climate simulations, we find that both MHWs and THEs in the Arctic Ocean are anticipated to intensify in a warming climate, mainly due to Arctic sea ice decline and long-term warming trend, respectively. Particularly striking is the projected rise in MHW mean intensity during the 21[st] century in the Arctic Ocean, surpassing the global average by more than sevenfold under the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario. This phenomenon, coined the 'Arctic MHW Amplification', underscores an impending and disproportionately elevated threat to the Arctic marine life, necessitating targeted conservation and adaptive strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39326751, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, H and Wang, X and Lu, H and Van Balen, R}, title = {The impacts of climate change, early agriculture and internal fluvial dynamics on paleo-flooding episodes in Central China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176431}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176431}, pmid = {39326751}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Floods clustered in episodes are the most prevalent natural disaster worldwide, causing substantial economic and human losses. Although these events are often linked to time-periods of extreme rainstorms and unique atmospheric circulation patterns, the river basin characteristics affected by anthropogenic land use changes could exert a strong influence. However, the way and extent of how land use changes across different time scales affect flooding periods are still unclear, especially considering the historical land use changes. This study uses the Landlab landscape evolution model, coupled with an evapotranspiration model, to investigate the forcing factors for the paleo-flooding trends in the Wei River catchment over the last 5000 years. The results indicate that the flooding period from 4400 to 4000 BP was caused by an increase of 28 % in antecedent moisture content as well as a decrease of 28 % in its spatial variability, which are primarily due to climate change, and that the contribution of land-use change is less than 5 %. The increases of about 14 % and 8 % in main channel sedimentation rate play a leading role in flood generation during the time periods from 3400 to 2800 BP and 2000-1400 BP, respectively. These two periods of increased flooding are primarily caused by the erosional effects of increasing anthropogenic land use, whose contributions range from 33 % to 64 %. Furthermore, based on our modelling results, we suggest that the downstream propagation of the main flooding locations, from the Wei River to the lower reaches of the Yellow River, can be explained by the downstream migrating sediment wave. In conclusion, our simulation results give new insights into the causes of Holocene flooding periods in the middle Yellow River from the perspective of dynamic changes in catchment characteristics, which is helpful to improve regional flood risk management under future climate change and anthropogenic activities.}, }
@article {pmid39325697, year = {2024}, author = {Haque, F and Lampe, FC and Hajat, S and Stavrianaki, K and Hasan, SMT and Faruque, ASG and Ahmed, T and Jubayer, S and Kelman, I}, title = {Impacts of climate change on diarrhoeal disease hospitalisations: How does the global warming targets of 1.5-2°C affect Dhaka, Bangladesh?.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {e0012139}, pmid = {39325697}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Humans ; Bangladesh/epidemiology ; *Diarrhea/epidemiology ; Child, Preschool ; *Hospitalization/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Infant ; Adolescent ; Child ; Male ; *Climate Change ; Adult ; Young Adult ; Female ; Global Warming ; Middle Aged ; Temperature ; Infant, Newborn ; Aged ; Incidence ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Dhaka is one of the world's densely populated cities and faces significant public health challenges including high burden of diarrhoeal diseases. Climate change is intensifying existing environmental problems including urban heat island effect and poor water quality. While numerous epidemiological studies have linked meteorological factors to diarrhoeal diseases in Bangladesh, assessment of the impacts of future climate change on diarrhoeal diseases is scarce. We provide the assessment of climate change impacts on diarrhoeal disease in Dhaka and project future health risks under climate change scenarios. About 3 million acute diarrhoea cases presenting to the Dhaka Hospital of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (icddr,b) during 1981-2010 were linked to daily temperature, rainfall and humidity and association investigated using time series adapted negative binomial regression models employing constrained distributed lag linear models. The findings were applied to climate projections to estimate future risks of diarrhoea under various global warming scenarios. There was a significantly raised risk of diarrhoea hospitalisation in all ages with daily mean temperature (RR: 3.4, 95% CI: 3.0-3.7) after controlling for the confounding effects of heavy rainfall, humidity, autocorrelations, day of the week effect, long-term time, and seasonal trends. Using the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.034, temperature increases based on the global warming targets of 1.5-2°C could result in an increase of diarrhoea hospitalisations by 4.5-7.4% in all age groups by the 2100s. These effects were more pronounced among <5 children where the predicted temperature increases could raise diarrhoea hospitalisation by 5.7% - 9.4%. Diarrhoea hospitalisation will increase significantly in Dhaka even if the global warming targets adopted by the Paris Agreement is reached. This underscores the importance of preparing the city for management and prevention of diarrhoeal diseases.}, }
@article {pmid39323113, year = {2024}, author = {Godse, S and Shabanova, V and Ragavan, MI and Mitchell, M and Chen, L and Flom, JD and Sheares, BJ}, title = {Caregivers of children with asthma alarmed by climate change: a cross-sectional study.}, journal = {Pediatric pulmonology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ppul.27288}, pmid = {39323113}, issn = {1099-0496}, support = {//None/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses significant health risks, with children being particularly vulnerable to its adverse health effects. Children with asthma are expected to have worsening disease due to increased exposure to heat, air pollution, mold from flooding, and pollen. Understanding caregiver perspectives on these health harms is crucial for informing public health policy and education. Therefore, we aimed to explore caregiver perceptions of climate change-related health risks to children with asthma.<br><br>METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, a survey instrument was created and distributed to caregivers of children with asthma during their visits to pulmonology clinics located in an urban northeastern US setting and via email.<br><br>RESULTS: Among 198 completed surveys, 78% of participants reported high levels of concern about climate change, with most respondents agreeing that climate change has already impacted their child's health. Examples provided by respondents included worsening asthma control due to air pollution, wildfire events, pollen exposure, and rapid changes in weather. Respondents who self-identified as female had greater concern. Most respondents agreed that these topics should be further discussed with their child's doctor. Although, barriers to such discussions were noted by the respondents.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Caregivers of children with asthma have high levels of concern regarding climate change and report adverse impacts on their child's asthma. Clinicians caring for children with asthma should consider discussing the respiratory health impacts of climate change with caregivers. However, barriers to these discussions need further examination.}, }
@article {pmid39322950, year = {2024}, author = {Atta, MHR and Zoromba, MA and Asal, MGR and AbdELhay, ES and Hendy, A and Sayed, MA and Elmonem, HHA and El-Ayari, OSM and Sehsah, I and AbdELhay, IS and Rahman, AAAOA and Balha, SMI and Taha, HMA and Shehata, HS and Othman, AA and Mohamed, AZ and Abdelrahman, MM and Ibrahim, NMI and Hassan, EHM and El-Fatah, HAMA and Ali, AAM and Elsmalosy, MFA and Machaly, ER and Ghoneam, MA and Ali, AFZ and Elfar, MNA and El-Sayed, AAI and Mahmoud, MFH and Hassan, EA}, title = {Predictors of climate change literacy in the era of global boiling: a cross-sectional survey of Egyptian nursing students.}, journal = {BMC nursing}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {676}, pmid = {39322950}, issn = {1472-6955}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate changes have led to health and environmental risks, so it has become essential to measure climate change literacy among the entire population, especially nursing students. The significant role of nursing students in raising public awareness and future healthcare roles emphasizes assessing the predictors of climate change literacy among nursing students.<br><br>AIMS: This study seeks to identify the predictors of climate change literacy among nursing students in A Multi-Site Survey.<br><br>DESIGN: A multi-site descriptive cross-sectional study adheres to the guidelines outlined in A Consensus-Based Checklist for Reporting Survey Studies collected for five months, from the 1st of July 2023 to November 2023. The study participants comprise 10,084 nursing students from all 27 governments in Egypt. The researcher used the Predictors of Nursing Students' Climate Change Literacy scale in this study. Data was collected, with 25 min average time to complete. Backward multiple linear regression was used to identify these predictors.<br><br>RESULTS: In the current study, nursing students demonstrated a moderate understanding of climate science (mean score 14.38), communication and advocacy skills (mean score 14.41), and knowledge of adaptation and mitigation strategies (mean score 13.33). Climate health impacts (mean score 17.72) emerged as the domain with the highest level of knowledge. No significant differences in climate literacy were observed across diverse student backgrounds (all p-values were&#x2009;>&#x2009;0.05). Perceived faculty knowledge of climate change positively correlated with all four domains of climate literacy and emerged as a significant predictor in multiple linear regression analyses (all p-values were&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001).<br><br>IMPLICATION: While our findings highlight significant predictors of climate literacy, it is essential to recognize that these results identify associations rather than causal relationships. Based on these associations, it is recommended that nursing professionals be equipped with comprehensive knowledge of climate adaptation strategies to better advocate for and implement effective public health measures.}, }
@article {pmid39322930, year = {2024}, author = {Jain, S and Srivastava, A and Khadke, L and Chatterjee, U and Elbeltagi, A}, title = {Global-scale water security and desertification management amidst climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39322930}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Deserts and semi-arid environments are habitats to rare species, rich cultural heritage, and essential ecological processes. Approximately 46% of the world's surface area is covered by drylands (arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas), where 3 billion people live and unfortunately witness water insecurity and desertification implications. In this context, the present study argued that reduced dryland ecosystem services and decreased ecosystem health have resulted from the individual and compounding impacts of desertification, water scarcity, and climate change. At 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, under the shared socio-economic pathway SSP2, the number of people living in drylands who will be affected by various effects on water, energy, and land sectors is projected to reach 951 million, 1152 million, and 1285 million, respectively. Due to combinations of land use change, rainfall variations, fire suppression, and CO2 fertilization, as well as unsustainable management, widespread woody encroachment has occurred in many shrublands and savannas in Africa, Australia, North America, and South America. This has altered biodiversity and reduces ecosystem services, such as water availability and grazing potential. The north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America are projected to have the most semiarid expansion. Contrarily, drylands are expected to shrink in India, northern China, eastern equatorial Africa, and the southern Sahara. Growing research evidence highlights the adoption of policy frameworks deriving the solutions from soil land management (SLM), indigenous and local knowledge (ILK), early warning systems coupled with adaptation and mitigation responses, and targets of sustainable development goals (SDGs).}, }
@article {pmid39322707, year = {2024}, author = {Soliman, A}, title = {How a 'billion oysters' could protect the New York coastline from climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39322707}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39322655, year = {2024}, author = {Ryan, PH and Newman, N and Yolton, K and Meinzen-Derr, J and Glauser, T and Cheng, TL and , }, title = {Correction: a call for solutions-oriented research and policy to protect children from the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41390-024-03593-7}, pmid = {39322655}, issn = {1530-0447}, }
@article {pmid39322105, year = {2024}, author = {Galveias, A and Duarte, ESF and Raposo, M and Costa, MJ and Costa, AR and Antunes, CM}, title = {Trends in land cover and in pollen concentration of Quercus genus in Alentejo, Portugal: effects of climate change and health impacts.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {124996}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2024.124996}, pmid = {39322105}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Mediterranean forests dominated by Quercus species are of great ecological and economic value. The Quercus pollen season, peaking in April, varies in concentration due to geographical and climatic factors and has a remarkable allergenic potential. This study investigates Quercus trends in the Alentejo region of Portugal and examines the influence of meteorological parameters on DPC, PSD and SPIn, as well as the impact on allergic respiratory disease. The results show a progressive increase in Quercus Forest area from 1995 to 2018. Temperature and Precipitation are a key factor influencing pollen concentration, especially before peak of pollen season and prior to the pollen season. Particularly prior to the season, the precipitation of t-6 before influence, significantly, the pollen production. On the other hand, Global Srad and RH determine the beginning of the season. Using quartile-based categorization and multivariate statistical analysis, we identified years and scenarios within the IPCC projections where meteorological conditions influence may SPIn production. The study found a statistically significant correlation between high Quercus pollen concentrations in April and increased antihistamine sales. These findings are crucial for enhancing pollen forecast models and early warning systems.}, }
@article {pmid39321238, year = {2024}, author = {Sinha, S and De, A and Halder, A}, title = {Global Warming and Rising Threat of Dengue Fever: Expectations in Disease Management.}, journal = {Indian journal of public health}, volume = {68}, number = {3}, pages = {444-446}, doi = {10.4103/ijph.ijph_1264_23}, pmid = {39321238}, issn = {0019-557X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; *Global Warming ; *Dengue Virus ; Animals ; Global Health ; }, abstract = {Arbovirus-borne dengue fever remains a global public health threat. The actual burden of dengue infection may be underestimated due to undiagnosed or misdiagnosed fever cases. The distribution of dengue is influenced by both climatic and nonclimatic factors, including global warming, which affects the vector population and transmission period. Other factors, such as serotype evolution and host immunity, also contribute to the spread of the virus. Different serotypes of the dengue virus show different clinical manifestations. The prevalence of serotypes varies geographically and over time. Early diagnosis and characterization of circulating viruses at the genomic level are important for disease prevention and control.}, }
@article {pmid39320588, year = {2024}, author = {Oroud, IM}, title = {The implications of climate change on freshwater resources in the arid and semiarid Mediterranean environments using hydrological modeling, GIS tools, and remote sensing.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {10}, pages = {979}, pmid = {39320588}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Hydrology ; *Remote Sensing Technology ; *Geographic Information Systems ; Fresh Water/chemistry ; Groundwater/chemistry ; Models, Theoretical ; Mediterranean Region ; Desert Climate ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Precipitation partitioning in arid and semiarid environments is not well understood due to scanty precipitation, its temporal distribution, and the lack/absence of adequate measurements of the hydrometeorological components. Simulation methods have the potential to bridge the data gap, thereby providing a window to estimate the water balance components. The present investigation evaluates the water balance components of a typical watershed situated in the southeastern Mediterranean for the period 1979 through 2019 using daily meteorological data and a grid spacing of 250 m. Generated runoff results were commensurate with corresponding values obtained using the SWAT model. Computed groundwater recharge is also compatible with recharge values calculated using the chloride mass balance method. Results show that average runoff and groundwater recharge for the entire period was ⁓24 mm a[-1] and 19 mm a[-1], giving a precipitation ratio of 9.5% and 7.5%, respectively. Substantial interannual variability in the water balance components was observed during the study period which reflected the significant precipitation fluctuations typifying the Eastern Mediterranean. Results show that the period extending from 1998/1999 through 2018/2019 witnessed an 18% drop in annual precipitation, while surface runoff and groundwater recharge experienced a reduction of ⁓34% and ⁓67%, respectively. Although groundwater recharge is a complex function of numerous meteorological and geological factors, the NDVI can provide an excellent indicator of groundwater recharge in marginal Mediterranean environments. This is highly beneficial in areas where climate records are scanty or absent. The presented results emphasize the significant impacts of global warming and aridification on the future availability of water resources in the semiarid marginal climates in the Eastern Mediterranean and point out clearly that water resources in this area will become scarcer, leading to multiple security threats at national and regional levels.}, }
@article {pmid39319872, year = {2024}, author = {Shirey, V and Rabinovich, J}, title = {Climate change-induced degradation of expert range maps drawn for kissing bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) and long-standing current and future sampling gaps across the Americas.}, journal = {Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz}, volume = {119}, number = {}, pages = {e230100}, pmid = {39319872}, issn = {1678-8060}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Insect Vectors/classification ; Reduviidae ; Animal Distribution ; Chagas Disease/transmission ; Bayes Theorem ; Phylogeny ; Americas ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Kissing bugs are the vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease (CD). Despite their epidemiological relevance, kissing bug species are under sampled in terms of their diversity and it is unclear what biases exist in available kissing bug data. Under climate change, range maps for kissing bugs may become less accurate as species shift their ranges to track climatic tolerance.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Quantify inventory completeness in available kissing bug data. Assess how well range maps are at conveying information about current distributions and potential future distributions subject to shift under climate change. Intersect forecasted changes in kissing bug distributions with contemporary sampling gaps to identify regions for future sampling of the group. Identify whether a phylogenetic signal is present in expert range knowledge as more closely related species may be similarly well or lesser understood.<br><br>METHODS: We used species distribution models (SDM), specifically constructed from Bayesian additive regression trees, with Bioclim variables, to forecast kissing bug distributions into 2100 and intersect these with current sampling gaps to identify priority regions for sampling. Expert range maps were assessed by the agreement between the expert map and SDM generated occurrence probability. We used classical hypothesis testing methods as well as tests of phylogenetic signal to meet our objectives.<br><br>FINDINGS: Expert range maps vary in their quality of depicting current kissing bug distributions. Most expert range maps decline in their ability to convey information about kissing bug occurrence over time, especially in under sampled areas. We found limited evidence for a phylogenetic signal in expert range map performance.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Expert range maps are not a perfect account of species distributions and may degrade in their ability to accurately convey distribution knowledge under future climates. We identify regions where future sampling of kissing bugs will be crucial for completing biodiversity inventories.}, }
@article {pmid39319472, year = {2024}, author = {Felton, AM and Wam, HK and Borowski, Z and Granhus, A and Juvany, L and Matala, J and Melin, M and Wallgren, M and Mårell, A}, title = {Climate change and deer in boreal and temperate regions: From physiology to population dynamics and species distributions.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {9}, pages = {e17505}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17505}, pmid = {39319472}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {N2021-01//SNS Nordic Forest Research/ ; N2022-06//SNS Nordic Forest Research/ ; }, mesh = {*Deer/physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Population Dynamics ; Animal Distribution ; Ecosystem ; North America ; Seasons ; Forests ; Europe ; Asia ; }, abstract = {Climate change causes far-reaching disruption in nature, where tolerance thresholds already have been exceeded for some plants and animals. In the short term, deer may respond to climate through individual physiological and behavioral responses. Over time, individual responses can aggregate to the population level and ultimately lead to evolutionary adaptations. We systematically reviewed the literature (published 2000-2022) to summarize the effect of temperature, rainfall, snow, combined measures (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation), and extreme events, on deer species inhabiting boreal and temperate forests in terms of their physiology, spatial use, and population dynamics. We targeted deer species that inhabit relevant biomes in North America, Europe, and Asia: moose, roe deer, wapiti, red deer, sika deer, fallow deer, white-tailed deer, mule deer, caribou, and reindeer. Our review (218 papers) shows that many deer populations will likely benefit in part from warmer winters, but hotter and drier summers may exceed their physiological tolerances. We found support for deer expressing both morphological, physiological, and behavioral plasticity in response to climate variability. For example, some deer species can limit the effects of harsh weather conditions by modifying habitat use and daily activity patterns, while the physiological responses of female deer can lead to long-lasting effects on population dynamics. We identified 20 patterns, among which some illustrate antagonistic pathways, suggesting that detrimental effects will cancel out some of the benefits of climate change. Our findings highlight the influence of local variables (e.g., population density and predation) on how deer will respond to climatic conditions. We identified several knowledge gaps, such as studies regarding the potential impact on these animals of extreme weather events, snow type, and wetter autumns. The patterns we have identified in this literature review should help managers understand how populations of deer may be affected by regionally projected futures regarding temperature, rainfall, and snow.}, }
@article {pmid39318536, year = {2024}, author = {Rowley, AF and Baker-Austin, C and Boerlage, AS and Caillon, C and Davies, CE and Duperret, L and Martin, SAM and Mitta, G and Pernet, F and Pratoomyot, J and Shields, JD and Shinn, AP and Songsungthong, W and Srijuntongsiri, G and Sritunyalucksana, K and Vidal-Dupiol, J and Uren Webster, TM and Taengchaiyaphum, S and Wongwaradechkul, R and Coates, CJ}, title = {Diseases of marine fish and shellfish in an age of rapid climate change.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {9}, pages = {110838}, pmid = {39318536}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {A recurring trend in evidence scrutinized over the past few decades is that disease outbreaks will become more frequent, intense, and widespread on land and in water, due to climate change. Pathogens and the diseases they inflict represent a major constraint on seafood production and yield, and by extension, food security. The risk(s) for fish and shellfish from disease is a function of pathogen characteristics, biological species identity, and the ambient environmental conditions. A changing climate can adversely influence the host and environment, while augmenting pathogen characteristics simultaneously, thereby favoring disease outbreaks. Herein, we use a series of case studies covering some of the world's most cultured aquatic species (e.g., salmonids, penaeid shrimp, and oysters), and the pathogens (viral, fungal, bacterial, and parasitic) that afflict them, to illustrate the magnitude of disease-related problems linked to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39317490, year = {2024}, author = {Grande, AJ and Dias, IMAV and Jardim, PTC and Aparecida Vieira Machado, A and Soratto, J and da Rosa, MI and Ceretta, LB and Zourntos, X and Suares, RO and Harding, S}, title = {Environmental degradation, climate change and health from the perspective of Brazilian Indigenous stakeholders: a qualitative study.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {14}, number = {9}, pages = {e083624}, doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2023-083624}, pmid = {39317490}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Brazil ; *Qualitative Research ; Indigenous Peoples/psychology ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Mental Health ; Health Policy ; Middle Aged ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The WHO identifies climate change as the most significant threat to global health systems. Indigenous peoples, whose lives are deeply intertwined with nature, are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of these changes.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to understand the perspectives of Indigenous stakeholders and public services managers on the interconnectedness of climate change and Indigenous health.<br><br>DESIGN: A qualitative study with 22 Indigenous stakeholders and public service managers on climate change and perceived impact on Indigenous health.<br><br>SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Indigenous stakeholders and public service managers on climate change and perceived impact on Indigenous health from Brazil. Data was collected through interviews incorporating two vignette videos depicting environmental and health scenarios. Thematic content analysis was used to analyse the data.<br><br>RESULTS: The analytical process yielded six subcategories that were further grouped into three overarching thematic macro-categories: environmental degradation and climate change in the context of Indigenous peoples; environment, vulnerability and impact on Indigenous mental health; and actions and public health policies for Indigenous peoples.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The perspectives of Indigenous stakeholders and public service managers on the interconnectedness of climate change and Indigenous health were deeply entrenched in their lived experiences of loss of their lands from deforestation and environmental degradation. They argued strongly for the strengthening of public health policies aimed at the Indigenous peoples, to face many challenges, especially suicide, and to have a voice in decision-making. A sensitive approach that values Indigenous peoples' connections with nature is fundamental to promote their health and well-being.}, }
@article {pmid39315376, year = {2024}, author = {Martínez, JP and Sagredo, B and Moreno, M&#xc1;}, title = {Editorial: Using rootstocks in crops and fruit trees to mitigate the effects of climate change and abiotic stress.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1479317}, pmid = {39315376}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid39315375, year = {2024}, author = {Lu, Z and Shan, Y and Shan, H and Wen, H and Wu, Y and Han, R and Tong, X}, title = {Effect of climate change on Clinopodium polycephalum (Vaniot) C. Y. Wu &amp; S. J. Hsuan distribution adopting temporal data, ArcGIS, and the MaxEnt model.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1445764}, pmid = {39315375}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Clinopodium polycephalum (Vaniot) C. Y. Wu &amp; S. J. Hsuan, a vital plant in traditional Chinese medicine, has been used for its hemostatic properties since 1220 AD. Despite its recognized medicinal benefits including anti-inflammatory and cardiovascular applications and increasing market demands, research on this plant remains limited, particularly from the perspective of plant ecology. Due to global warming and the resultant climate change, studies on the distribution and conservation of C. polycephalum are of great importance, especially when a clear trend that its habitat shifts to the north was observed. To predict the potential distribution of C. polycephalum under distinct climate situations, the MaxEnt model was used along with the ArcGIS software. As a result, an AUC value of 0.931 was achieved, indicating high predictive accuracy of the model. By analyzing 135 occurrence points and their corresponding bioclimatic factors (including precipitation), soil data, and other environmental variables (49 in total), 16 key factors including pH value and basic saturation were selected for downstream analysis. It was found that solar radiation in May, precipitation in May and April, and the lowest temperature in the coldest month are important factors influencing the growth and distribution of C. polycephalum. Compared to the current climate scenario, the future suitable habitat for C. polycephalum is expected to shift northwest, and under the SSP245-2061-2080 climate scenario, its highly suitable habitat area is projected to increase by 886,000 km[2]. These findings provide crucial insights into the environmental drivers of C. polycephalum distribution and aid in its preservation and sustainable use in traditional medicine. Based on the findings of this study, future research should focus on factors such as solar radiation in May and the lowest temperature in the coldest month within the suitable habitat to ensure its effective conservation.}, }
@article {pmid39313832, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Climate change's implications for practice: Pharmacologic considerations of heat-related illness.}, journal = {The Nurse practitioner}, volume = {49}, number = {10}, pages = {38-39}, doi = {10.1097/01.NPR.0000000000000239}, pmid = {39313832}, issn = {1538-8662}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Heat Stress Disorders/nursing ; Nurse Practitioners ; }, }
@article {pmid39313690, year = {2024}, author = {N C R, F and R R, A and L N, F}, title = {Climate change impacts on livestock in Brazil.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39313690}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {Brazilian livestock provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, making the country one of the largest producers and exporters of meat, milk and eggs. However, current advances in the production of protein from Brazilian animal origin may be directly impacted by climate change and the resulting biophysical effects. Therefore, it is strategically consistent to develop measures to deal with the resulting environmental heat stress on domesticated animal species, especially the need in developing countries. This work aims to (1) evaluate the impacts of climate change on livestock (cattle-dairy, cattle-beef, goats, sheep, pigs, poultry-general) in different regions of Brazil and (2) discuss possible response strategies, associated with animal comfort and welfare. From our results, we can draw better strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on livestock production. The results presented show an increase of high heat stress in South and Southeast and an increase of extreme heat stress in North and Central-West areas of Brazil. The rise in extreme heat stress tends to occur mostly during spring and summer and tends to vary considering the different evaluated species. Within the evaluated species, the ones that seem to be more affected by climate changes are Poultry, pigs, cattle-beef and general (temperature-humidity index value). The differences between the results for the five geographic regions in Brazil suggests that different mitigation measures need to be considered to cope with future heat stress in livestock. To ensure the long-term success of Brazil's influence on the global market for proteins of animal origin, it must achieve sustainable production systems more intensively.}, }
@article {pmid39313613, year = {2024}, author = {Dong, J and Yu, S}, title = {Retraction Note: Exploring role of green financing in blockchain markets for climate change mitigation in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-024-35113-9}, pmid = {39313613}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid39313538, year = {2024}, author = {Tacon, D}, title = {I scale these vast trees to gather data on the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {633}, number = {8031}, pages = {974}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-03080-3}, pmid = {39313538}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Data Collection ; Ecology ; *Forests ; *Research Personnel ; Taiwan ; *Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid39311143, year = {2024}, author = {Martino, C and Geraci, F and Scudiero, R and Barone, G and Naselli, F and Chiarelli, R}, title = {Vanadium Toxicity Is Altered by Global Warming Conditions in Sea Urchin Embryos: Metal Bioaccumulation, Cell Stress Response and Apoptosis.}, journal = {Journal of xenobiotics}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {1130-1142}, pmid = {39311143}, issn = {2039-4713}, support = {FFR 2023-2024; D15 - Chiarelli PJ_UTILE_2022_VQR_Misura_B_D15_Chiarelli//University of Palermo/ ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, the global vanadium (V) industry has been steadily growing, together with interest in the potential use of V compounds as therapeutics, leading to V release in the marine environment and making it an emerging pollutant. Since climate change can amplify the sensitivity of marine organisms already facing chemical contamination in coastal areas, here, for the first time, we investigated the combined impact of V and global warming conditions on the development of Paracentrotus lividus sea urchin embryos. Embryo-larval bioassays were carried out in embryos exposed for 24 and 48 h to sodium orthovanadate (Na3VO4) under conditions of near-future ocean warming projections (+3 °C, 21 °C) and of extreme warming at present-day marine heatwave conditions (+6 °C, 24 °C), compared to the control temperature (18 °C). We found that the concomitant exposure to V and higher temperature caused an increased percentage of malformations, impaired skeleton growth, the induction of heat shock protein (HSP)-mediated cell stress response and the activation of apoptosis. We also found a time- and temperature-dependent increase in V bioaccumulation, with a concomitant reduction in intracellular calcium ions (Ca[2+]). This work demonstrates that embryos' sensitivity to V pollution is increased under global warming conditions, highlighting the need for studies on multiple stressors.}, }
@article {pmid39310775, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, X and Othman, SN and Kohler, DB and Wu, Z and Wang, Z and Borzée, A}, title = {Combined climate change and dispersal capacity positively affect Hoplobatrachus chinensis occupancy of agricultural wetlands.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {9}, pages = {110732}, pmid = {39310775}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Global warming significantly impacts amphibian populations globally, and modeling helps understand these effects. Here, we used MaxEnt and MigClim models to predict the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for Hoplobatrachus chinensis. Our results indicate that temperature is a key factor affecting H. chinensis distribution. Increasing temperatures positively correlated with habitat suitability, with suitable habitat expanding northward by 2060 while maintaining suitability in the southern parts of the range. We found a 25.18% overlap between the current potential suitable habitat of H. chinensis and agricultural wetlands. Our model indicated that H. chinensis might be able to track shifts in suitable habitats under climate change given a 15 km dispersal ability per generation. Climate change will likely expand suitable habitat for H. chinensis. Our predictions offer important guidance for the conservation of the species, especially for the integrated role of natural and agricultural wetlands such as rice paddies.}, }
@article {pmid39309957, year = {2024}, author = {Guedes, JP and Cardoso, TV and Fernandes, T and Mendes, F and Baleiras-Couto, MM and Duarte, FL and Sousa, MJ and Franco-Duarte, R and Chaves, SR and Côrte-Real, M}, title = {Exploring wine yeast natural biodiversity to select strains with enological traits adapted to climate change.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {18}, pages = {e36975}, pmid = {39309957}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Wine is widely consumed throughout the world and represents a significant financial market, but production faces increasing challenges. While consumers progressively value more complex flavor profiles, regional authenticity, and decreased use of additives, winemakers strive for consistency among climate change, characterized by rising environmental temperatures and sun burn events. This often leads to grapes reaching phenolic maturity with higher sugar levels, and increased microbial spoilage risk. Herein, we addressed these dual concerns by investigating the use of autochthonous Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains for fermentations of grape musts resulting from these altered conditions. We characterized underexplored repositories of naturally-occurring strains isolated from different environments and geographical regions, regarding adequate enological properties (e.g., high cell growth, reduced production of H2S, ethanol and acetic acid, increased SO2 resistance, killer activity), and other less frequently investigated properties (resistance to osmotic stress, potassium and aluminium silicates and fungicides). The phenotypic data were organized in a biobank, and bioinformatic analysis grouped the strains according to their characteristics. Furthermore, we analyzed the potential of four Portuguese isolates to be used in fermentations of grape musts with high sugar levels, uncovering promising candidates. This research therefore contributes to ongoing efforts to increase sustainability and quality of wine production.}, }
@article {pmid39309938, year = {2024}, author = {Win, CZ and Daniel, D and Dwipayanti, NMU and Jawjit, W}, title = {Development of integrated assessment tool for water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services in non-household settings under climate change context.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {18}, pages = {e37645}, pmid = {39309938}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Access to improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) services is crucial in recognizing human rights to water and sanitation and due to their impacts on education, livelihoods, and human health. However, these services are often inadequate in non-household settings such as prisons, refugee camps, schools, and healthcare facilities. Progress in monitoring to ensure sustainable services in these settings has been limited. Although several tools are available to assess WASH services in both household and non-household settings, they have limitations, and none has taken a holistic approach to evaluate WASH performance in all non-household settings. Furthermore, the impacts of climate change on WASH services are rarely considered in these evaluations, making the inadequacies of WASH services worse. To address these gaps, an integrated tool was developed to assess WASH performance in non-household settings, incorporating financial, institutional, environmental impact, technical, social, and climate change factors. The tool provides scores for indicators to solve the problem of a lack of final aggregated data to enable decision-makers to determine the level of WASH performance in a setting. Moreover, it provides qualitative explanations for each score, allowing decision-makers to identify areas for improvement. This tool offers valuable and insightful data for improving WASH facilities and ensuring sustainable services in non-household settings, particularly for WASH service providers and local governments.}, }
@article {pmid39309923, year = {2024}, author = {Singh, A and Arora, K and Chandra Babu, S}, title = {Examining the impact of climate change on cereal production in India: Empirical evidence from ARDL modelling approach.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {18}, pages = {e36403}, pmid = {39309923}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Agriculture sector is major sufferer of climate change both at a global level as well as at India level. Cereals account for about 92 % of India's total food grain output and climate change has a significant influence on the production of cereals. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term and short-term effects of climatic and non-climatic variables, specifically temperature, precipitation, cereal area, total cropped area, fertilizer consumption, and pesticide consumption, on cereal production in India. The study included annual time series data that covered the period from 1960 to 2018, covering a period of 58 years. Various econometric techniques were employed to examine these relationships. The validity of a long-term and short-term relationship among the relevant variables included in the study was validated by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique and the Johansen cointegration test. The ARDL model's estimation outcomes reveals that input factors such as cereal area became a key factor in rising cereal production, as evidenced by its positive coefficient. Similarly, fertilizer consumption and precipitation had positive effects on production in the long run whereas total cropped area and minimum temperature has little influence over the results of production both in short run as well as long run. Furthermore, the long-term findings were also supported using econometric tools like Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS). These methods confirmed that variations in cereal production in India were significantly influenced by both climatic factors and agricultural inputs and factors. The study emphasizes the urgency for policymakers to prioritize proactive measures aimed at reducing the adverse impacts of climate change on cereal production in India. This necessitates a comprehensive strategy integrating sustainable practices, technological innovations, and robust policy frameworks to ensure resilient agricultural sectors and sustainable food production.}, }
@article {pmid39307871, year = {2024}, author = {Akram, H and Li, J and Anser, MK and Irfan, M and Watto, WA}, title = {Retraction Note: Assessing the impact of human capital, renewable energy, population growth, economic growth, and climate change policies on achieving the sustainable development goals.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-024-35115-7}, pmid = {39307871}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid39306140, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, L and Wang, B and Wu, W and Wang, C and Cheng, H and Duan, X}, title = {Enhanced health risk of soil heavy metal exposure following an extreme rainstorm under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {954}, number = {}, pages = {176409}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176409}, pmid = {39306140}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Widespread concerns raised in changes in the health risk of soil heavy metals exposure due to extreme rainstorm under climate change. However, the impacts of extreme rainstorm on human exposure risk and the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. In this study, soil properties, speciation distribution and bioaccessibility of Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb in soil samples, which were collected before and after extreme rainstorm, were measured, subsequently the soil oral exposure risk of heavy metals was assessed based on bioaccessibility. Results indicate that extreme rainstorm can significantly enhance the accumulated non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic exposure risk by 10.1-188.3 %, with lowland soil posing 1.3-1.7 times higher risk than highland soil. The increase in exposure risk varies among elements in highland and lowland soil. Specifically, the exposure risk for Cd and Pb increased by 2.5-9.7 times, whereas that for Cu decreased by 43.2 % - 60.6 %. The risk of Zn and Ni exposure exhibits complex trends, with an increase of 37.2 %-104.8 % in lowland soil but a decrease of 9.4 %-46.5 % in highland soil. Bioaccessibility variations are the primary risk factors for soil heavy metal exposure during extreme rainstorms, not total concentration. Mechanistically, the extreme rainstorm directly increases soil moisture content and reduce organic matter concentration, leading to an increment in the proportion of bio-utilization speciation and decrement in the speciation bounding to Fe/Mn oxides of soil heavy metals. Furthermore, the bioaccessibility of soil heavy metal positively correlates with their bio-utilization speciation and negatively correlates with their speciation bounding to Fe/Mn oxides, which ultimately increasing exposure risk. Our study suggests the necessity that attentions should be paid to the enhanced health risk associated with soil heavy metal exposure following extreme rainstorm, particularly for population residing in lowland areas.}, }
@article {pmid39305836, year = {2024}, author = {Pitron, V and Lemogne, C and Clayton, S and Léger, D and Van den Bergh, O and Witthöft, M}, title = {Climate change anxiety and its association with somatic symptom distress and idiopathic environmental intolerances: A cross-sectional study.}, journal = {Journal of psychosomatic research}, volume = {187}, number = {}, pages = {111937}, doi = {10.1016/j.jpsychores.2024.111937}, pmid = {39305836}, issn = {1879-1360}, abstract = {CONTEXT: Individuals need greater climate change awareness in order to mitigate and adapt to climate changes but this awareness can lead to negative health outcomes including climate change anxiety.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To explore the associations between climate change anxiety, idiopathic environmental intolerances and somatic symptom distress, after accounting for modern health worries, anxiety and depression.<br><br>METHODS: A non-representative sample of healthy volunteers completed a cross-sectional online survey that included the Climate Change Anxiety scale (CCA-13), single questions about idiopathic intolerance to five environmental agents, the Somatic Symptoms scale (SSS-8), the Modern Health Worries scale (MHW-12), and the Patient Health Questionnaire for symptoms of anxiety and depression (PHQ-4). Participants also reported their sex, age and subjective socioeconomic status. Bivariate analyses investigated associations between variables and path analyses explored potential mediating factors.<br><br>RESULTS: 432 participants completed the questionnaire, 421 of whom were included in analyses (67&#xa0;% women, mean age: 32.7 standard deviation: 12.4). Climate change anxiety, idiopathic environmental intolerances, somatic symptom distress, modern health worries, and symptoms of anxiety and depression were positively correlated in bivariate analyses (Pearson's ranging from 0.22 to 0.57, all p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001). In path analyses, modern health worries (R[2]&#xa0;=&#xa0;9.9&#xa0;%) partially mediated the relation between climate change anxiety (R[2]&#xa0;=&#xa0;20.3&#xa0;%) and two correlated outcome variables, idiopathic environmental intolerances (R[2]&#xa0;=&#xa0;36.8&#xa0;%) and somatic symptom distress (R[2]&#xa0;=&#xa0;32.4&#xa0;%).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change anxiety may negatively affect perceived physical health. Stakeholders should aim at promoting climate change awareness while addressing modern health worries to avoid negative health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid39305325, year = {2024}, author = {Fang, C and Zhu, R and Yin, Z and Chen, Z and Shan, J and Wang, L and Yang, H}, title = {Remote sensing monitoring of glacier area and volume changes in glacier-fed mountainous watershed on the Northern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {10}, pages = {966}, pmid = {39305325}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {42161018//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; U22A202690//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2022YFF1302602//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 2021424//Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 21ZD4NF044-02//Science and technology project of Gansu Province/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Ice Cover ; *Remote Sensing Technology ; Tibet ; Rivers/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Steady glacier runoff is related to the security and resilience of water resources in meltwater recharge basins, so the status and change of glaciers and their response to climate change in the upper reaches have received widespread concerns. Here, the spatiotemporal characteristics of glacier wastage in the Upper Reaches of Shule River Basin (URSRB) driven by climate change were analyzed based on multi-source and multi-temporal remotely sensed images. Firstly, we extracted multi-temporal glacier outlines from the Landsat time series data using Google Earth Engine (GEE) for seven different periods every approximately 5 years from 1990 to 2020. The spatiotemporal analysis of URSRB glaciers demonstrates a sustained reduction in glacier area from 481.07 ± 24.24 km[2] in 1990 to 384.05 ± 22.71 km[2] in 2020, corresponding to a glacier shrinkage rate of - 0.67 ± 0.23%/year, characterized by considerable temporal variability. Secondly, multi-temporal DEMs derived from ASTER stereo imagery spanning from 2000 to 2020 were used to compute the glacier surface elevation changes and determine the glacier mass loss. The overall glacier surface elevation change rate was - 0.32 ± 0.14 m/year, equivalent to a mass balance of - 0.28 ± 0.12 m w.e./year. Lastly, to better apprehend the long-term response of URSRB glaciers to climate change, studies on climate change were carried out based on the EAR5-Land reanalysis dataset. The long-term trend of glacier wastage is attributed to the increase in summer temperature, and the negative effects of increased summer temperature on glaciers exceeded the positive effects of increased annual precipitation. In summary, glaciers in the URSRB have experienced a significant area reduction and accelerated mass loss against the backdrop of climatic warming and humidification.}, }
@article {pmid39304787, year = {2024}, author = {Jansson, JK}, title = {Publisher Correction: Microorganisms, climate change, and the Sustainable Development Goals: progress and challenges.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41579-024-01111-4}, pmid = {39304787}, issn = {1740-1534}, }
@article {pmid39304157, year = {2024}, author = {Santos, CP and Rosa, R and Frazão-Santos, C}, title = {Global risk assessment of sharks to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176361}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176361}, pmid = {39304157}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In what has been referred to as a 'perfect storm', it is now clear that we will be concurrently facing both a biodiversity and climate crisis over the incoming decades. In this context, we propose a broadly applicable framework to evaluate the climate-associated risk for marine life at the species-level, based on the ecosystem-level assessment developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We apply this framework to all extant marine shark species - given their major ecological and socioeconomic importance, alongside their precarious conservation status -at the global scale. Through the integration of expert-assessed information on each risk dimension, we consider the ecosystem dependencies of the targeted species, alongside with their vulnerability to human pressures. More specifically, we estimate the threat (exposure * hazard) level imposed by different climate change scenarios [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1, SSP2, SSP3 and SSP5] across meaningful timeframes (2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and contrast the normalized threat, vulnerability, and risk scores of each species across regions and attributes (order, habitat use, climate preference, lifestyle, trophic position, reproductive mode, and extinction risk category). Our analysis showcases how all shark species should be affected by climate change regardless of the emission scenario. With effects widely expected over the short-term, discrepancies between emission scenarios escalate considerably over time, with associated changes in the level and type of ecological implications. Moreover, with distinct lineages and functional attributes expected to be differently affected and with distinct consequences expected across scenarios, this analysis highlights how climate change is poised to exacerbate the already disproportional risk of functional and phylogenetic loss documented for this key group of marine predators.}, }
@article {pmid39300195, year = {2024}, author = {Marquardt, T and Kaczmarek, S and Niedbała, W}, title = {Distribution of euptyctimous mite Phthiracarus longulus (Acari: Oribatida) under future climate change in the Palearctic.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {21913}, pmid = {39300195}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Mites/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Temperature ; Animal Distribution ; }, abstract = {The aim of this paper is to prepare, describe and discuss the models of the current and future distribution of Phthiracarus longulus (Koch, 1841) (Acari: Oribatida: Euptyctima), the oribatid mite species widely distributed within the Palearctic. We used the maximum entropy (MAXENT) method to predict its current and future (until the year 2100) distribution based on macroclimatic bio-variables. To our best knowledge, this is the first-ever prediction of distribution in mite species using environmental niche modelling. The main thermal variables that shape the current distribution of P. longulus are the temperature annual range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the annual mean temperature, while for precipitation variables the most important is precipitation of the driest quarter. Regardless of the climatic change scenario (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) our models show generally the northward shift of species range, and in Southern Europe the loss of most habitats with parallel upslope shift. According to our current model, the most of suitable habitats for P. longulus are located in the European part of Palearctic. In general, the species range is mostly affected in Europe. The most stable areas of P. longulus distribution were the Jutland with surrounding southern coasts of Scandinavia, islands of the Danish Straits and the region of Trondheim Fjord.}, }
@article {pmid39300086, year = {2024}, author = {Benavides, IF and Garcés-Vargas, J and Selvaraj, JJ}, title = {Potential negative impacts of climate change outweigh opportunities for the Colombian Pacific Ocean Shrimp Fishery.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {21903}, pmid = {39300086}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; Pacific Ocean ; *Fisheries ; Colombia ; *Penaeidae/physiology ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change brings a range of challenges and opportunities to shrimp fisheries globally. The case of the Colombian Pacific Ocean (CPO) is notable due the crucial role of shrimps in the economy, supporting livelihoods for numerous families. However, the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of shrimps loom large, making it urgent to scrutinize the prospective alterations that might unfurl across the CPO. Employing the Species Distribution Modeling approach under Global Circulation Model scenarios, we predicted the current and future potential distributions of five commercially important shrimps (Litopenaeus occidentalis, Xiphopenaeus riveti, Solenocera agassizii, Penaeus brevirostris, and Penaeus californiensis) based on an annual cycle, and considering the decades 2030 and 2050 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP 2.6, SSP 4.5, SSP 7.0, and SSP 8.5. The Bathymetric Projection Method was utilized to obtain spatiotemporal ocean bottom predictors, giving the models more realism for reliable habitat predictions. Six spatiotemporal attributes were computed to gauge the changes in these distributions: area, depth range, spatial aggregation, percentage suitability change, gain or loss of areas, and seasonality. L. occidentalis and X. riveti exhibited favorable shifts during the initial semester for both decades and all scenarios, but unfavorable changes during the latter half of the year, primarily influenced by projected modifications in bottom salinity and bottom temperature. Conversely, for S. agassizii, P. brevirostris, and P. californiensis, predominantly negative changes surfaced across all months, decades, and scenarios, primarily driven by precipitation. These changes pose both threats and opportunities to shrimp fisheries in the CPO. However, their effects are not uniform across space and time. Instead, they form a mosaic of complex interactions that merit careful consideration when seeking practical solutions. These findings hold potential utility for informed decision-making, climate change mitigation, and adaptive strategies within the context of shrimp fisheries management in the CPO.}, }
@article {pmid39300085, year = {2024}, author = {Melnikova, I and Yokohata, T and Ito, A and Nishina, K and Tachiiri, K and Shiogama, H}, title = {Emergent constraints on future Amazon climate change-induced carbon loss using past global warming trends.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {7623}, pmid = {39300085}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {JPMXD0722681344//MEXT | JST | Development of Advanced Measurement and Analysis Systems (SENTAN)/ ; }, abstract = {Reducing uncertainty in the response of the Amazon rainforest, a vital component of the Earth system, to future climate change is crucial for refining climate projections. Here we demonstrate an emergent constraint (EC) on the future response of the Amazon carbon cycle to climate change across CMIP6 Earth system models. Models that overestimate past global warming trends, tend to estimate hotter and drier future Amazon conditions, driven by northward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone over the Atlantic Ocean, causing greater Amazon carbon loss. The proposed EC changes the mean CMIP6 Amazon climate-induced carbon loss estimate (excluding CO2 fertilisation and land-use change impacts) from -0.27 (-0.59-0.05) to -0.16 (-0.42-0.10) GtC year[-1] at 4.4 °C warming level, reducing the variance by 34%. This study implies that climate-induced carbon loss in the Amazon rainforest by 2100 is less than thought and that past global temperature trends can be used to refine regional carbon cycle projections.}, }
@article {pmid39300027, year = {2024}, author = {Li, Q}, title = {Retraction Note: Green financing role on climate change-supportive architectural design development: directions for green architectural designs.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-024-35091-y}, pmid = {39300027}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid39298346, year = {2024}, author = {Del Sarto, G and Flandoli, F}, title = {A non-autonomous framework for climate change and extreme weather events increase in a stochastic energy balance model.}, journal = {Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)}, volume = {34}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1063/5.0223309}, pmid = {39298346}, issn = {1089-7682}, abstract = {We develop a three-timescale framework for modeling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the super-greenhouse effect in tropical regions, fits within the setting of stochastic reaction-diffusion equations. Our results show how both mean and variance of temperature increase, without the system going through a bifurcation point. This study aims to advance the conceptual understanding of the extreme weather events frequency increase due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39296214, year = {2024}, author = {Chang, D and Bu, N and Zhang, N and Xiao, H}, title = {Climate change and tourism demand: Risks for extreme heat?.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {17}, pages = {e37186}, pmid = {39296214}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Extremely high temperatures have become a major hurdle to tourists' experiences in various destinations. In this study, we present the first nationwide estimation of the temperature-tourism response function using a fine-grained panel dataset constructed by matching tourism data and daily meteorological datasets for 280 cities from 2005 to 2019 in China. Results show a non-linear relationship between temperature and tourism employing the temperature bins method, which is not sensitive to response equations. In addition, we conduct a rich heterogeneity analysis in the article to further analyse the effects of other external conditions on the temperature-tourism relationship, including the destination's level of tourism economic development, population, infrastructure development, and tourism resource endowment. We also observed that increasing summer temperatures result in decreased tourism arrivals and revenue, while rising autumn temperatures lead to increased tourism arrivals and revenue. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between temperature dynamics and tourism patterns, offering insights into destination management and adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39296206, year = {2024}, author = {du Plessis, F and Goedhals-Gerber, L and van Eeden, J}, title = {Climate change and marine cargo insurance - A global survey of insurers' perceptions.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {17}, pages = {e37117}, pmid = {39296206}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The increasing frequency of climate-related hazards poses a significant risk to supply chains and marine insurance companies, which are already grappling with complex and interdependent global operations. Through a survey, this research examines the perceptions of an international cohort of marine insurers regarding their organization's participation in the Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) framework for climate change. In addition, the influence of respondents' experience levels and the World Bank's country classifications by income level are investigated. A repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) is conducted to examine the effect of the SCRM framework's steps on perception, revealing significant variations among the steps and identifying gaps for improvement. While experience levels do not significantly affect involvement in the SCRM framework, distinct patterns emerge within each experience group, highlighting nuanced risk management practices. Comparing perceptions across World Bank income level categories reveals that higher country income levels generally correlate with higher average perception scores, indicating a potential association with greater awareness and management of climate change risks. The research also highlights the need for comprehensive involvement in all steps of the SCRM framework. Addressing climate change and building resilient supply chains requires a multi-faceted approach that includes enhanced risk management practices, and to this end, the authors' present areas for future research.}, }
@article {pmid39296162, year = {2024}, author = {Guo, Q and Hasani, R}, title = {Assessing the impact of water scarcity on thermoelectric and hydroelectric potential and electricity price under climate change: Implications for future energy management.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {17}, pages = {e36870}, pmid = {39296162}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study investigates the impact of water resource restrictions on thermoelectric and hydroelectric stations, analyzing its influence on demand and electricity prices. It uses General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) to forecast future temperature trends and estimate river flow patterns. The research provides insights into climate change's potential effects on water resources and electricity potential. The study shows a significant decrease in river flow, indicating potential issues with hydroelectric and thermoelectric systems. The study also uses an optimized Echo State Network (ESN) for accurate electricity demand, using the Modified Snow Leopard Optimization (MSLO) algorithm as a new metaheuristic model. The simulation results show a consistent increase in electricity demand scenarios, which is expected to lead to higher supply prices due to decreased production capacity. This could have significant economic effects. The investigation provides a comprehensive understanding of water resource management challenges in power production, aiding in informed decisions in the future energy industry.}, }
@article {pmid39296148, year = {2024}, author = {Makvandi, M and Yuan, PF and Ji, Q and Li, C and Elsadek, M and Li, W and Hassan, A and Li, Y}, title = {Resilience to climate change by improving air circulation efficiency and pollutant dispersion in cities: A 3D-UFO approach to urban block design.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {17}, pages = {e36904}, pmid = {39296148}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Urbanization presents significant challenges to air quality and climate resilience, necessitating pioneering urban design solutions to enhance air circulation and mitigate pollutants. This urgency intensifies in densely populated and rapidly evolving regions like Wuhan, China, where effective strategies are crucial for sustainable development. This study introduces an innovative 3D Urban Form Optimization (3D-UFO) methodology aimed at advancing urban block design configurations to improve urbanization quality. The 3D-UFO approach systematically addresses the multifaceted challenges of climate change and air quality degradation in rapidly urbanizing areas. Integrating GIS-based analysis for comprehensive Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LULCC) evaluation with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), our approach employs systematic exploration guided by established urban airflow study protocols. Robust metrics-Airspeed-Ratio (ASR) and Average-Age-of-Local-Air (ALA)-quantify the impact of diverse urban block design strategies on air-circulation efficiency and pollutant dispersion. Analysis across various urban scenarios, yielded by the proposed 3D-UFO approach, reveal significant variations in air-circulation efficiency at street and building levels (SBLs). Optimal urban air circulation achieves efficiency levels of 50-70 % when airflow aligns orthogonally across and parallel to streets. Adjusting street-level building heights, especially incorporating taller structures, boosts ventilation efficiency by 20-30 %, which is crucial for improving airflow dynamics in urban settings. Higher Height-to-Width (H/W) ratios (>5.5) yield a 218.5 % increase in ventilation in specific urban layouts. Notably, the synergy of street-aspect-ratio and building-height-ratio adjustments significantly enhance ASR and ALA, providing a quantitative foundation for sustainable urban development. This 3D-UFO methodology, fusing LULCC analysis, CFD simulations, and systematic exploration, emerge as a valuable framework for urban planners and designers. The study offers informed insights into urban sustainability challenges, demonstrating advancements in addressing environmental concerns and improving living conditions within densely populated environments.}, }
@article {pmid39295445, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, Z and Zhuo, Z and Ali, H and Mureed, S and Liu, Q and Yang, X and Xu, D}, title = {Predicting potential habitat distribution of the invasive species Rhynchophorus ferrugineus Olivier in China based on MaxEnt modelling technique and future climate change.}, journal = {Bulletin of entomological research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-10}, doi = {10.1017/S0007485324000336}, pmid = {39295445}, issn = {1475-2670}, abstract = {Changes in the distribution of species due to global climate change have a critically significant impact on the increase in the spread of invasive species. An in-depth study of the distribution patterns of invasive species and the factors influencing them can help to better predict and combat invasive alien species. Rhynchophorus ferrugineus Olivier is an invasive species that primarily harms plants of Trachycarpus H. Wendl. The pest invades trees in three main ways: by laying eggs and incubating them in the crown of the plant, on roots at the surface and at the base of the trunk or petiole. Most of the plants in the genus Trachycarpus are taller, and the damage is concentrated in the middle and upper parts of the plant, making control more difficult. In this paper, we combine 19 bioclimatic variables based on the MaxEnt model to project the current and future distributions of R. ferrugineus under three typical emission scenarios (2.6 W m[-2] (SSP1-2.6), 4.5 W m[-2] (SSP2-4.5) and 8.5 W m[-2] (SSP5-8.5)) in the 2050s and 2090s. Among the 19 bioclimatic variables, five variables were screened out by contribution rates, namely annual mean temperature (BIO 1), precipitation of driest quarter (BIO 17), minimum temperature of coldest month (BIO 6), mean diurnal range (BIO 2) and precipitation of wettest quarter (BIO 16). These five variables are key environmental variables that influence habitat suitability for R. ferrugineus and are representative in reflecting its potential habitat. The results showed that R. ferrugineus is now widely distributed in the southeastern coastal area of China (high suitability zone), concentrating in the provinces of Hainan, Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi and Taiwan. In the future, the area of high and low suitability zones will increase and the area of medium suitability zones will decrease. The area of low suitability zone will still be in the largest proportion. This study aims to provide a theoretical reference for the future control of R. ferrugineus from the perspective of geographic distribution.}, }
@article {pmid39294814, year = {2023}, author = {Troncarelli, LT and de Ataide, MT and Morsello, C}, title = {Existing evidence of conceptual differences in research on climate change perceptions among smallholders? A systematic map.}, journal = {Environmental evidence}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {28}, pmid = {39294814}, issn = {2047-2382}, support = {Finance Code 001//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; FAPESP Project #2016/12803-9//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; Climate-U project//N&#xfa;cleo de Apoio a Pesquisa em Mudan&#xe7;as Clim&#xe1;ticas (Incline)/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is having adverse effects on the livelihoods of small-scale populations, particularly in relation to their subsistence practices. Scientific literature widely acknowledges that smallholders must first perceive climate changes to take necessary precautions and adapt to the new conditions. However, variations exist in the terminology used across the literature, and in how it conceptualizes these perceptions. This variation complicates understanding of the literature and hinders empirical evidence comparisons. Therefore, in this review, we systematically mapped the literature considering variations in the concept's usage across different thematic areas. Our goal was to provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of the literature on smallholder climate change perceptions.<br><br>METHODS: In our systematic map, we adhered to the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence guidelines. We searched the literature adopting English terms and using five electronic databases of scientific publications (Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus, BASE-Bielefeld Academic Search Engine, PubMed, and Science Direct Elsevier). We then screened the retrieved articles' titles, abstracts, and full texts according to predefined eligibility criteria. Articles meeting the eligibility criteria were chosen for full reading, data extraction, and coding, utilizing a prepared codebook. No validity appraisal occurred in this selection. A database containing coded metadata for all studies is accessible for reference.<br><br>REVIEW FINDINGS: After screening 5358 articles (titles and abstracts), we identified and thoroughly reviewed 361 eligible articles at full text to map the usage of the climate change perception concept. Among these, 73 articles provided explicit definitions of perception, falling into seven categories: risk perception, perception based on psychological constructs and sensory stimuli, awareness, prior experience, observation of climate variables, beliefs, and uncertainties or threats. Implicit definitions of perception with various constructs were found, including those rooted in Cognitive Psychology, awareness, risk perception, traditional knowledge, beliefs, concerns about climate change, experiences of exposure to its effects, attitudes, worldviews, and scientific knowledge. Articles usually address multiple topics. Notably, 88% of the articles did not present any theory throughout their content. Geographically, Africa and Asia were the most frequently studied continents, with more focus on non-indigenous small-scale populations than indigenous ones.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the perception concept exhibits an interdisciplinary nature. Therefore, fostering continuous dialogue among diverse disciplines is imperative to establishing an interdisciplinary definition of the term. An in-depth understanding of the perception concept is essential, as its absence can result in erroneous conclusions, limited adaptation strategies, and a lack of awareness among small-scale populations regarding climate change impacts. Misconceptions about this concept can lead to ineffective policies, further endangering vulnerable populations. Defining the concept and its constructs facilitates article comparisons. Without this definition, meaningful comparisons become unfeasible. Moreover, the absence of proper perception definitions poses challenges for small-scale populations, researchers, and stakeholders in developing effective, efficient, and flexible adaptations over time. Perception is the first step in incorporating adaptation strategies and must be translated into policies to address climate change impacts efficiently.}, }
@article {pmid39294793, year = {2022}, author = {Troncarelli, LT and Morsello, C}, title = {What evidence exists on conceptual differences in climate change perceptions of smallholders? A systematic map protocol.}, journal = {Environmental evidence}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {31}, pmid = {39294793}, issn = {2047-2382}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is affecting small-scale populations worldwide. Evidence of adverse effects has been reported for smallholders' agriculture, hunting, fishing, and gathering products from natural ecosystems (non-timber forest products). To take precautions or deal with such problems (i.e. to adapt), smallholders need to perceive climatic changes. Acknowledging this need, the literature on this topic is vast. Despite that, authors adopt alternative concepts of climate change perception, which may hinder comparisons of results across studies. Hence, the review team aim to systematically map the literature usage of the climate change perception concept.<br><br>METHODS: This systematic map will follow the CEE guidelines and conform to the Reporting Standards for Systematic Evidence form. The review team will rely on five electronic databases of scientific publications-Scopus, Web of Science Core Collection, BASE-Bielefeld Academic Search Engine, Science Direct Elsevier and PubMed-with pre-tested search terms only in English. Publications will be filtered through the "articles only" and "English language" selections. Titles, abstracts, and full texts will then be screened using pre-defined eligibility criteria, including small-scale and indigenous populations inhabiting rural areas, as well as presenting explicitly or implicitly the concept of climate change perception. From articles meeting the eligibility criteria, the review team will extract and encode the data while selecting the full texts for reading. The review team will use a codebook pre-elaborated for encoding. No critical appraisal of study validity will be undertaken. Finally, a database with coded metadata of all studies in the map will be made available. The review team will present the evidence in a report map with text, figures, and tables, besides a catalogue of all identified perception definitions.}, }
@article {pmid39294764, year = {2023}, author = {Vanhuyse, F and Piseddu, T and Moberg, &#xc5;}, title = {What evidence exists on the impact of climate change on real estate valuation? A systematic map protocol.}, journal = {Environmental evidence}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {24}, pmid = {39294764}, issn = {2047-2382}, support = {2022-01417//VINNOVA/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: As natural disasters increase in both frequency and magnitude because of climate change, assets, such as buildings and infrastructure, are exposed to physical climate risk. In addition, as our societies transition towards a greener economy, the transitional climate risk will manifest itself in different forms: reputational issues, market solutions that may drive out those that do not comply, technological disruptions and policy initiatives. How both risks, physical and transitional, impact the economic value of real estate assets is not well understood and will be investigated as the main scope of this systematic map.<br><br>METHOD: we use systematic mapping to collate and configure existing evidence on how climate risk has affected the economic value of real estate assets. After designing a search string, English language peer-reviewed publications will be retrieved from the two largest and most popular scientific research databases, as well as a database containing policy documents. This corpus will be tested for comprehensiveness using a benchmark of 50 highly relevant articles. Once the comprehensiveness test is passed, a consistency test will be carried out on the screening of a randomly selected list of 200 articles by three reviewers. If a kappa score of at least 0.6 is achieved, one of the reviewers will carry out the remainder of the screening, with another reviewer quality assuring 10% of the screening. The retained corpus will then be distributed over the three reviewers, who will carry out the extraction of metadata according to an agreed coding strategy. The final output of the coding will consist of a heat map, showcasing where substantial evidence is available, and research gaps, providing recommendations for further research. In addition, the results will provide insight into the methodology to quantify the impact of climate risk on real estate value. Figures and tables will be designed to make it easy to comprehend the results of the mapping.}, }
@article {pmid39294746, year = {2024}, author = {Malpeli, KC and Endyke, SC and Weiskopf, SR and Thompson, LM and Johnson, CG and Kurth, KA and Carlin, MA}, title = {Existing evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on ungulates in North America: a systematic map.}, journal = {Environmental evidence}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {8}, pmid = {39294746}, issn = {2047-2382}, support = {DE-SC0014664//Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors. Climate conditions can directly impact ungulates via changes in the costs of thermoregulation and locomotion, or indirectly, via changes in habitat and forage availability, predation, and species interactions. Many studies have documented the effects of climate variability and climate change on North America's ungulates, recording impacts to population demographics, physiology, foraging behavior, migratory patterns, and more. However, ungulate responses are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map describing the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on native ungulates in North America.<br><br>METHODS: We searched for all evidence documenting or projecting how climate variability and climate change affect the 15 ungulate species native to the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Greenland. We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and the websites of 62 wildlife management agencies to identify relevant academic and grey literature. We screened English-language documents for inclusion at both the title and abstract and full-text levels. Data from all articles that passed full-text review were extracted and coded in a database. We identified knowledge clusters and gaps related to the species, locations, climate variables, and outcome variables measured in the literature.<br><br>REVIEW FINDINGS: We identified a total of 674 relevant articles published from 1947 until September 2020. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), elk (Cervus canadensis), and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were the most frequently studied species. Geographically, more research has been conducted in the western U.S. and western Canada, though a notable concentration of research is also located in the Great Lakes region. Nearly 75% more articles examined the effects of precipitation on ungulates compared to temperature, with variables related to snow being the most commonly measured climate variables. Most studies examined the effects of climate on ungulate population demographics, habitat and forage, and physiology and condition, with far fewer examining the effects on disturbances, migratory behavior, and seasonal range and corridor habitat.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The effects of climate change, and its interactions with stressors such as land-use change, predation, and disease, is of increasing concern to wildlife managers. With its broad scope, this systematic map can help ungulate managers identify relevant climate impacts and prepare for future changes to the populations they manage. Decisions regarding population control measures, supplemental feeding, translocation, and the application of habitat treatments are just some of the management decisions that can be informed by an improved understanding of climate impacts. This systematic map also identified several gaps in the literature that would benefit from additional research, including climate effects on ungulate migratory patterns, on species that are relatively understudied yet known to be sensitive to changes in climate, such as pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) and mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus), and on ungulates in the eastern U.S. and Mexico.}, }
@article {pmid39294699, year = {2023}, author = {Cheng, SH and Costedoat, S and Sigouin, A and Calistro, GF and Chamberlain, CJ and Lichtenthal, P and Mills, M and Nowakowski, AJ and Sterling, EJ and Tinsman, J and Wiggins, M and Brancalion, PHS and Canty, SWJ and Fritts-Penniman, A and Jagadish, A and Jones, K and Mascia, MB and Porzecanski, A and Zganjar, C and Brenes, CLM}, title = {Assessing evidence on the impacts of nature-based interventions for climate change mitigation: a systematic map of primary and secondary research from subtropical and tropical terrestrial regions.}, journal = {Environmental evidence}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {21}, pmid = {39294699}, issn = {2047-2382}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Nature-based interventions (NbIs) for climate change mitigation include a diverse set of interventions aimed at conserving, restoring, and/or managing natural and modified ecosystems to improve their ability to store and sequester carbon and avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent projections estimate that terrestrial NbIs can lead to more than one-third of the climate change mitigation necessary to meet the Paris Climate Agreement by 2030. Further, these interventions can provide co-benefits in the form of social and ecological outcomes. Despite growing recognition of the potential benefits, a clear characterization of the distribution and occurrence of evidence which supports linkages between different types of NbIs and outcomes for climate change mitigation, ecosystems, and people remains poorly understood.<br><br>METHODS: This systematic map assesses the evidence base on the links between NbIs and climate change mitigation, social, and ecological outcomes in tropical and subtropical terrestrial regions. We searched three bibliographic databases, 65 organization websites, and conducted backward citation chasing within 39 existing evidence syntheses to identify relevant articles. Additionally, we reached out to key informants for additional sources of evidence. We then used machine learning to rank returned results by relevance at the title and abstract stage and manually screened for inclusion using predefined criteria at the title, abstract, and full text stages. We extracted relevant meta-data from included articles using an a priori coding scheme. Lastly, we conducted a targeted, complementary search to identify relevant review and synthesis articles to provide broader context for the findings of the systematic map.<br><br>REVIEW FINDINGS: We included 948 articles in this systematic map. Most of the evidence base (56%) examined links between protection, natural resource management, and restoration interventions with changes to 'proxy' outcomes for climate change mitigation (changes to land condition, land cover, and/or land use). Other areas with high occurrence of articles included linkages between interventions within natural resource management and trees in croplands categories and changes to aboveground carbon storage and/or sequestration (17% of articles). A key knowledge gap was on measured changes in GHG emissions across all intervention types (6% of articles). Overall, articles in the evidence base did not often assess changes in co-benefits alongside direct or indirect changes for climate change mitigation (32%). In most cases, the evidence base contained studies which did not explicitly test for causal linkages using appropriate experimental or quasi-experimental designs.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The evidence base for NbIs is significant and growing; however, key gaps in knowledge hamper the ability to inform ongoing and future investment and implementation at scale. More comprehensive evidence is needed to support causal inference between NbIs and direct outcomes for climate change mitigation to better determine additionality, permanence, leakage, and other unintended consequences. Similarly, priorities emerging from this map include the need for coordinated and harmonized efforts to collect diverse data types to better understand whether and how other outcomes (e.g. social, ecological) of NbIs can be achieved synergistically with mitigation objectives. Understanding potential benefits and trade-offs of NbIs is particularly urgent to inform rapidly expanding carbon markets for nature.}, }
@article {pmid39294455, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, P and Shen, C and Tao, Z and Qin, W and Huang, W and Siemann, E}, title = {Deterministic responses of biodiversity to climate change through exotic species invasions.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39294455}, issn = {2055-0278}, support = {31822007 and 32071660//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Biodiversity is increasingly threatened by local extinction under global climate change. This may reflect direct effects of climate on poorly adapted native species or increased impacts of exotic species in these conditions, but their relative importance is poorly understood. By examining global occurrence records of 142 plant species found in the Yangtze River Valley, we found that the climatic niches of exotic species differed from those of natives, mainly reflecting exotics being most common in warmer, drier and more isothermal climates in their native ranges. These differences in climatic niches, especially temperature, predicted invasion intensity in 459 plots along a 1,800-km transect in the Yangtze River Valley. On the basis of this strong match between model predictions and field survey results, we predict that invasions will probably be more intense in future climatic conditions, especially from warming at the coldest sites. The direct negative effect of warming on native diversity was larger than the indirect effects mediated through increased invasions. However, moderate invasion increased communities' overall species diversity. More broadly, our study highlights the role of exotic species in the ecological response of regional biodiversity to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39291406, year = {2024}, author = {Crowley, P and O'Connor, C and Power, E and Cannon, M and Cotter, D and McNicholas, F}, title = {Climate change and health: the role of health professionals.}, journal = {Irish journal of psychological medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1017/ipm.2024.23}, pmid = {39291406}, issn = {2051-6967}, abstract = {Climate change is no longer a problem for future generations and the impact is already taking a toll in many parts of the world. Climate change has already caused substantial, and increasingly irreversible, damage to ecosystems. All these issues combined will inevitably lead to an increase in human suffering and forced displacement. This has significant ramifications for health care systems. In this editorial we outline how climate change is already impacting both physical and mental health. Health professionals have a role to play in addressing this great challenge of our time. Health professionals should reflect on how to promote means of climate change mitigation and adaptation within their spheres of influence - clinical, education, advocacy, administration, and research.}, }
@article {pmid39289447, year = {2024}, author = {Szalińska, E and Orlińska-Woźniak, P and Wilk, P and Jakusik, E and Skalák, P and Wypych, A and Arnold, J}, title = {Sediment load assessments under climate change scenarios and a lack of integration between climatologists and environmental modelers.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {21727}, pmid = {39289447}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {IDUB No. 501.696.7996/L-34//Akademia G&#xf3;rniczo-Hutnicza im. Stanislawa Staszica/ ; }, abstract = {Increasing precipitation accelerates soil erosion and boosts sediment loads, especially in mountain catchments. Therefore, there is significant pressure to deliver plausible assessments of these phenomena on a local scale under future climate change scenarios. Such assessments are primarily drawn from a combination of climate change projections and environmental model simulations, usually performed by climatologists and environmental modelers independently. Our example shows that without communication from both groups the final results are ambiguous. Here, we estimate sediment loads delivered from a Carpathian catchment to a reservoir to illustrate how the choice of meteorological data, reference period, and model ensemble can affect final results. Differences in future loads could reach up to even 6000 tons of sediment per year. We suggest there must be a better integration between climatologists and environmental modelers, focusing on introducing multi-model ensembles targeting specific impacts to facilitate an informed choice on climate information.}, }
@article {pmid39294691, year = {2023}, author = {Rubenstein, MA and Weiskopf, SR and Bertrand, R and Carter, SL and Comte, L and Eaton, MJ and Johnson, CG and Lenoir, J and Lynch, AJ and Miller, BW and Morelli, TL and Rodriguez, MA and Terando, A and Thompson, LM}, title = {Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts.}, journal = {Environmental evidence}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {7}, pmid = {39294691}, issn = {2047-2382}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species' ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts?<br><br>REVIEW FINDINGS: We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average&#x2009;=&#x2009;11.8&#xa0;km/dec) and higher elevations (average&#x2009;=&#x2009;9&#xa0;m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.}, }
@article {pmid39294773, year = {2022}, author = {Azra, MN and Noor, MIM and Sung, YY and Lawrence, ER and Ghaffar, MA}, title = {What evidence exists on the impact of climate change on some of the worst invasive fish and shellfish? A systematic map protocol.}, journal = {Environmental evidence}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {19}, pmid = {39294773}, issn = {2047-2382}, support = {LRGS/1/2020/UMT/01/1//Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia/ ; LRGS UMT Vot No. 56040//Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia/ ; 55321//Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) has estimated that invasive alien species (IAS) might cause billions of dollars of losses every year across the world. One example is South-East Asia, where IAS have caused an estimated loss of 33.5 billion USD, affecting the environment, human health, and agricultural production. Factors associated with climate change, such as increased carbon dioxide (CO2), heavy precipitation, and elevated temperatures is expected to facilitate biological invasion, leading only to further financial and public health loss. Thus, further study is needed to identify, collate and categorise what evidence exists on the impacts of climate change on fish and shellfish species that contribute to the list of "One Hundred of the World's Worst Invasive Alien Species" as identified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN). Such mapping will identify regions more at risk of biological invasion as climate change progresses.<br><br>METHODS: We outline a systematic mapping review protocol that follows the Guideline and Standards for Evidence Synthesis in Environmental Management and RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES). We describe how peer-reviewed articles will be collected from Web of Science and Scopus, and then analyzed to create knowledge maps on the impact climate change has on invasive species. Finally, we speculate on how our results will aid future management of invasive species in the light of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39294782, year = {2022}, author = {Ramsay, J and Sandom, C and Ings, T and Wheeler, HC}, title = {What evidence exists on the impacts of large herbivores on climate change? A systematic map protocol.}, journal = {Environmental evidence}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {14}, pmid = {39294782}, issn = {2047-2382}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In recent years there has been an increased focus on the role of large herbivores in ecosystem restoration and climate change mitigation. There are multiple processes by which large herbivores could potentially influence climate feedback and forcing effects, but the evidence has not yet been synthesised in a systematic and accessible format. Grazing, browsing, trampling, defecation, and seed dispersal by large herbivores can influence vegetation and soils in ways that may directly or indirectly contribute to climate change or mitigation. For example, changes in vegetation could impact wildfire regimes, carbon storage, and albedo, with ultimate impacts on climate. These processes may be influenced by herbivore species composition, density, and functional traits. The main aim of this systematic map is to synthesise the range of research on climate feedback and forcing effects from large herbivores (≥ 10 kg) in terrestrial ecosystems. We also aim to identify knowledge clusters and gaps in the research base, as well as assessing the potential for quantitative analyses.<br><br>METHODS: A search of peer-reviewed and grey literature will be conducted using a range of bibliographic databases, search engines and websites. The search strategy will involve using a pre-defined search string with Boolean operators. All search results will be screened for relevance according to specific eligibility criteria. Screening will be conducted in two stages: all articles will initially be screened by title and abstract, then those that meet the eligibility criteria will be screened by full text. At both stages, articles will be excluded if they don't meet all eligibility criteria or if they meet any exclusion criteria. All articles included as eligible after full text screening will be coded. At each stage (of screening and coding) a proportion of articles will be processed independently by two reviewers to assess inter-reviewer reliability and resolve differences. The evidence will be presented in a searchable database with accompanying visual outputs. A narrative synthesis will be provided outlining the range and distribution of evidence, knowledge gaps and clusters, potential bias, and areas for further research.}, }
@article {pmid39294703, year = {2022}, author = {Cheng, SH and Costedoat, S and Sterling, EJ and Chamberlain, C and Jagadish, A and Lichtenthal, P and Nowakowski, AJ and Taylor, A and Tinsman, J and Canty, SWJ and Holland, MB and Jones, KW and Mills, M and Morales-Hidalgo, D and Sprenkle-Hyppolite, S and Wiggins, M and Mascia, MB and Muñoz Brenes, CL}, title = {What evidence exists on the links between natural climate solutions and climate change mitigation outcomes in subtropical and tropical terrestrial regions? A systematic map protocol.}, journal = {Environmental evidence}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {15}, pmid = {39294703}, issn = {2047-2382}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Natural climate solutions (NCS)-actions to conserve, restore, and modify natural and modified ecosystems to increase carbon storage or avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-are increasingly regarded as important pathways for climate change mitigation, while contributing to our global conservation efforts, overall planetary resilience, and sustainable development goals. Recently, projections posit that terrestrial-based NCS can potentially capture or avoid the emission of at least 11 Gt (gigatons) of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, or roughly encompassing one third of the emissions reductions needed to meet the Paris Climate Agreement goals by 2030. NCS interventions also purport to provide co-benefits such as improved productivity and livelihoods from sustainable natural resource management, protection of locally and culturally important natural areas, and downstream climate adaptation benefits. Attention on implementing NCS to address climate change across global and national agendas has grown-however, clear understanding of which types of NCS interventions have undergone substantial study versus those that require additional evidence is still lacking. This study aims to conduct a systematic map to collate and describe the current state, distribution, and methods used for evidence on the links between NCS interventions and climate change mitigation outcomes within tropical and sub-tropical terrestrial ecosystems. Results of this study can be used to inform program and policy design and highlight critical knowledge gaps where future evaluation, research, and syntheses are needed.<br><br>METHODS: To develop this systematic map, we will search two bibliographic databases (including 11 indices) and 67 organization websites, backward citation chase from 39 existing evidence syntheses, and solicit information from key informants. All searches will be conducted in English and encompass subtropical and tropical terrestrial ecosystems (forests, grasslands, mangroves, agricultural areas). Search results will be screened at title and abstract, and full text levels, recording both the number of excluded articles and reasons for exclusion. Key meta-data from included articles will be coded and reported in a narrative review that will summarize trends in the evidence base, assess gaps in knowledge, and provide insights for policy, practice, and research. The data from this systematic map will be made open access.}, }
@article {pmid39294734, year = {2022}, author = {Azra, MN and Noor, MIM and Eales, J and Sung, YY and Ghaffar, MA}, title = {What evidence exists for the impact of climate change on the physiology and behaviour of important aquaculture marine crustacean species in Asia? A systematic map protocol.}, journal = {Environmental evidence}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {9}, pmid = {39294734}, issn = {2047-2382}, support = {Long Term Research Grant Scheme (LRGS) LRGS/1/2020/UMT/01/1//ministry of higher education malaysia/ ; LRGS UMT Vot No. 56040//ministry of higher education malaysia/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate is one of the most important driving factors of future changes in terrestrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems. Any changes in these environments can significantly influence physiological and behavioural responses in aquatic animals, such as crustacea. Crustacea play an integral role as subsistence predators, prey, or debris feeders in complex food chains, and are often referred to as good indicators of polluted or stressed conditions. They also frequently have high production, consumption, and commercial significance. However, crustacean's responses to climate change are likely to vary by species, life-history stage, reproduction status and geographical distribution. This map is undertaken as part of the Long-Term Research Grant project which aims to identify any interactive effect on physiological compensation and behavioural strategy of how marine organisms, especially crustaceans, deal with stress from environmental change. Our proposed map will aim to outline the evidence currently existing for the impacts of climate change on the physiology and behaviour of important aquaculture crustacean species within Asia.<br><br>METHODS: We will document peer-reviewed articles in English using published journal articles and grey literature. Two bibliographic databases (Scopus and Web of Science) and multiple organizational websites with Google scholars will be searched. The systematic map protocol will follow in accordance with the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence Guidelines and Standards. Literature will be screened at the title, abstract, and full-text level using pre-defined inclusion criteria. The map will highlight marine crustacea physiological compensation and behavioural strategies to cope with climate change. It will also improve our knowledge of the available evidence and current gaps for future research recommendations.}, }
@article {pmid39288491, year = {2024}, author = {Dagar, V and Rao, A and Dagher, L and Doytch, N}, title = {Climate change dynamics for global energy security and equity: Evidence from policy stringency drivers.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {122484}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122484}, pmid = {39288491}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This study investigates the dynamic interplay between financial integration, political stability, infrastructure, and global integration in enhancing Energy Security (ES) and Energy Equity (EE) across 50 economies from 2006 to 2018. It addresses gaps in understanding how socio-economic, political, and technological factors collectively influence ES and EE during the global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The research aims to reveal the complex relationships and potential trade-offs between energy sustainability, economic growth, and equitable energy distribution. Utilizing robust panel data methods including System GMM, Fixed Effects, and Random Effects, the study examines the impacts of various determinants on ES and EE. The dataset includes annual observations on global integration, financial integration, infrastructure quality, political stability, and other relevant metrics from diverse global sources. The findings reveal that increased financial integration significantly enhances ES by easing capital flow into energy infrastructure, which is crucial for stable energy supply chains. Political stability also positively affects ES, underscoring the importance of stable governance in sustaining energy policies. Conversely, rapid urban growth and inadequate social integration pose challenges to achieving EE, highlighting disparities in energy access worsened by urbanization. Technological advancements and digital connectivity appear as positive drivers for EE, enhancing the efficiency and distribution of energy resources. This study contributes to the literature by providing a detailed examination of how integration into global financial and political systems affects energy strategies at a national level. It offers valuable insights for policymakers on fostering environments conducive to sustainable energy development and fair energy access. The research underscores the importance of incorporating socio-economic and technological advancements in energy policy frameworks to achieve balanced growth and sustainability. Future research directions include exploring the causal relationships and long-term impacts of these factors on ES and EE, particularly in the context of evolving global energy policies and technological advancements.}, }
@article {pmid39287703, year = {2024}, author = {Abbas, H and Ali, Z}, title = {A novel statistical framework of drought projection by improving ensemble future climate model simulations under various climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {10}, pages = {938}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-024-13108-w}, pmid = {39287703}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Droughts ; *Climate Change ; *Climate Models ; Forecasting ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {Unlike other natural disasters, drought is one of the most severe threats to all living beings globally. Due to global climate change, the frequency and duration of droughts have increased in many parts of the world. Therefore, accurate prediction and forecasting of droughts are essential for effective mitigation policies and sustainable research. In recent research, the use of ensemble global climate models (GCMs) for simulating precipitation data is common. The objective of this research is to enhance the multi-model ensemble (MME) for improving future drought characterizations. In this research, we propose the use of relative importance metric (RIM) to address collinearity effects and point-wise discrepancy weights (PWDW) in GCMs. Consequently, this paper introduces a new statistical framework for weighted ensembles called the discrepancy-enhanced beta weighting ensemble (DEBWE). DEBWE enhances the weighted ensemble data of precipitation simulated by multiple GCMs. In DEBWE, we addressed uncertainties in GCMs arising from collinearity and outliers. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed weighting framework, we compared its performance with the simple average multi-model ensemble (SAMME), Taylor skill score ensemble (TSSE), and mutual information ensemble (MIE). Based on the Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) metric, DEBWE outperforms all competitors across all evaluation criteria. These inferences are based on the analysis of historical simulated data from 22 GCMs in the CMIP6 project. The quantitative performance indicators strongly support the superiority of DEBWE. The median and mean KGE values for DEBWE are 0.2650 and 0.2429, compared to SAMME (0.1000, 0.0991), TSSE (0.2600, 0.2397), and MIE (0.1550, 0.1511). For drought assessment, we computed the adaptive standardized precipitation index (SPI) for three future scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The steady-state probabilities suggest that normal drought (ND) is the most frequent condition, with extreme events (dry or wet) being less probable.}, }
@article {pmid39287075, year = {2024}, author = {Bérubé, A and Diallo, T and Roberge, M and Audate, PP and Leblanc, N and Jobin, &#xc9; and Moubarak, N and Guillaumie, L and Dupéré, S and Guichard, A and Goupil-Sormany, I}, title = {Practicing nurses' and nursing students' perceptions of climate change: A scoping review.}, journal = {Nursing open}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {e70043}, doi = {10.1002/nop2.70043}, pmid = {39287075}, issn = {2054-1058}, support = {SAR-SR-133186//Universit&#xe9; Laval/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Students, Nursing/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; Perception ; Nurses/psychology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Human activities have significantly contributed to a persistent climate change trend, posing substantial threats to human health. Nurses regularly interact with patients experiencing the consequences of climate change, making their engagement in addressing this issue crucial. Nonetheless, our understanding of nurses' viewpoints regarding climate change remains limited.<br><br>AIM: This scoping review aims to identify practicing nurses' and nursing students' perceptions of climate change.<br><br>DESIGN: To fulfil this objective, a documentary search strategy was developed using an iterative process.<br><br>METHODS: The search strategy was tested in four bibliographic databases, as well as in the grey literature. A 2-stage selection process was conducted, and relevant data were extracted from selected articles for analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Twenty-two scientific articles and 11 documents from nursing associations were selected. The findings suggest that while many nurses and nursing students are concerned about climate change and its effects on their patients' health, their role in addressing the climate crisis is not well understood. Many barriers such as having a heavy workload and the lack of support hindered their ability to adjust their practice in response to the changing climate. Furthermore, many expressed a need for trainings on climate change issues.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These results raise a great and urgent demand for these professionals to receive appropriate training to cope with climatic threats to health. Future research should focus on the development of nursing climate leadership, and healthcare organizations should support nursing initiatives and help raise nurses' awareness regarding climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39286506, year = {2024}, author = {Tang, H and Du, L and Xia, C and Luo, J}, title = {Bridging gaps and seeding futures: A synthesis of soil salinization and the role of plant-soil interactions under climate change.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {9}, pages = {110804}, pmid = {39286506}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Soil salinization, exacerbated by climate change, poses significant threats to agricultural productivity, land restoration, and ecosystem resilience. This study reviews current knowledge on plant-soil interactions as a strategy to mitigate soil salinization induced by climate change, focusing on their role in soil salinity dynamics and tolerance mechanisms. The review examines how alterations in hydrological and temperature regimes impact soil salinity and how plant-soil mechanisms-such as salt exclusion, compartmentalization, and plant-microbe interactions-contribute to salinity mitigation. This, in turn, enhances soil quality, fertility, microbial diversity, and ecosystem services. The analysis identifies a growing body of research and highlights key themes and emerging trends, including drought, microbial communities, and salt tolerance strategies. This study underscores the critical role of plant-soil interactions in sustainable salinity management and identifies knowledge gaps and future research priorities, advocating for plant-soil interactions as a crucial pathway for improving ecosystem resilience to salinity stress amid climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39286423, year = {2024}, author = {Chaichana, T and Reeve, G and Piboonrungroj, P and Muangprathub, J and Kunno, J and Robson, MG and Drury, B}, title = {Data from a survey of coffee cultivation in lowland and highland areas to support agriculture during climate change.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {56}, number = {}, pages = {110881}, pmid = {39286423}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {This survey aimed to acquire and generate significant information on coffee cultivation in high and low elevations to support agriculture during climate change. This survey dataset helps understand coffee cultivation in highland and lowland areas with diverse climates and environmental conditions for coffee researchers to use this data to improve cultivation and production techniques. In the business scope, this dataset provides a critical vision on the value proposition of the coffee business to maintain conservation and wealth creation of the coffee chain. Similarly, coffee chains can use this data as an example to assess sustainability and carbon literacy. The structured interviews and field trips were conducted at coffee plantations in southern and northern Thailand. The transcript results were manually coded for thematic analysis. This dataset offers insights into anthropogenic plant migration and plant distribution for researchers and academics to use as a valuable resource and good reference in agricultural and biodiversity research. Today, agriculture faces many challenges, such as climate change, water shortage, and improper land management. This information on coffee cultivation at high and low altitudes may help others grow crops in ever-changing climates.}, }
@article {pmid39286200, year = {2024}, author = {Bamal, A and Uddin, MG and Olbert, AI}, title = {Harnessing machine learning for assessing climate change influences on groundwater resources: A comprehensive review.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {17}, pages = {e37073}, pmid = {39286200}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change is a major concern for a range of environmental issues including water resources especially groundwater. Recent studies have reported significant impact of various climatic factors such as change in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, etc. on different groundwater variables. For this, a range of tools and techniques are widely used in the literature including advanced machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) approaches. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this review is one of the novel studies that offers an in-depth exploration of ML/AI models for evaluating climate change impact on groundwater variables. The study primarily focuses on the efficacy of various ML/AI models in forecasting critical groundwater parameters such as levels, discharge, storage, and quality under various climatic pressures like temperature and precipitation that influence these variables. A total of 65 research papers were selected for review from the year 2017-2023, providing an up-to-date exploration of the advancements in ML/AI methods for assessing the impact of climate change on various groundwater variables. It should be noted that the ML/AI model performance depends on the data attributes like data types, geospatial resolution, temporal scale etc. Moreover, depending on the research aim and objectives of the different studies along with the data availability, various sets of historical/observation data have been used in the reviewed studies Therefore, the reviewed studies considered these attributes for evaluating different ML/AI models. The results of the study highlight the exceptional ability of neural networks, random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), support vector machines (SVM) to perform exceptionally accurate in predicting water resource changes and identifying key determinants of groundwater level fluctuations. Additionally, the review emphasizes on the enhanced accuracy achieved through hybrid and ensemble ML approaches. In terms of Irish context, the study reveals significant climate change risks posing threats to groundwater quantity and quality along with limited research conducted in this avenue. Therefore, the findings of this review can be helpful for understanding the interplay between climate change and groundwater variables along with the details of the various tools and techniques including ML/AI approaches for assessing the impacts of climate changes on groundwater.}, }
@article {pmid39285134, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, RS and Seritan, AL and Hatcher, A and Asghar-Ali, AA}, title = {The Climate Formulation: Addressing Climate Change in Mental Health Practice.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39285134}, issn = {1545-7230}, }
@article {pmid39284744, year = {2024}, author = {Terry, TJ and Hardegree, SP and Adler, PB}, title = {Modeling cheatgrass distribution, abundance, and response to climate change as a function of soil microclimate.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e3028}, doi = {10.1002/eap.3028}, pmid = {39284744}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {201940/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Exotic annual grass invasions in water-limited systems cause degradation of native plant and animal communities and increased fire risk. The life history of invasive annual grasses allows for high sensitivity to interannual variability in weather. Current distribution and abundance models derived from remote sensing, however, provide only a coarse understanding of how species respond to weather, making it difficult to anticipate how climate change will affect vulnerability to invasion. Here, we derived germination covariates (rate sums) from mechanistic germination and soil microclimate models to quantify the favorability of soil microclimate for cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) establishment and growth across 30 years at 2662 sites across the sagebrush steppe system in the western United States. Our approach, using four bioclimatic covariates alone, predicted cheatgrass distribution with accuracy comparable to previous models fit using many years of remotely-sensed imagery. Accuracy metrics from our out-of-sample testing dataset indicate that our model predicted distribution well (72% overall accuracy) but explained patterns of abundance poorly (R[2] = 0.22). Climatic suitability for cheatgrass presence depended on both spatial (mean) and temporal (annual anomaly) variation of fall and spring rate sums. Sites that on average have warm and wet fall soils and warm and wet spring soils (high rate sums during these periods) were predicted to have a high abundance of cheatgrass. Interannual variation in fall soil conditions had a greater impact on cheatgrass presence and abundance than spring conditions. Our model predicts that climate change has already affected cheatgrass distribution with suitable microclimatic conditions expanding 10%-17% from 1989 to 2019 across all aspects at low- to mid-elevation sites, while high- elevation sites (>2100 m) remain unfavorable for cheatgrass due to cold spring and fall soils.}, }
@article {pmid39284331, year = {2024}, author = {Forsyth, C and Agudelo Higuita, NI and Hamer, SA and Ibarra-Cerdeña, CN and Valdez-Tah, A and Stigler Granados, P and Hamer, GL and Vingiello, M and Beatty, NL}, title = {Climate change and Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in North and central America.}, journal = {The Lancet. Microbe}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {100946}, doi = {10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.07.009}, pmid = {39284331}, issn = {2666-5247}, abstract = {Trypanosoma cruzi is a protozoan parasite that causes Chagas disease in humans. Transmission of T cruzi by triatomine vectors is dependent on diverse environmental and socioeconomic factors. Climate change, which is disrupting patterns of human habitation and land use, can affect the epidemiology of Chagas disease by influencing the distribution of vector and host species. We conducted a review using triatomine distribution as a proxy for T cruzi transmission in North America (Canada, Mexico, and the USA) and central America (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama) and investigated the association of T cruzi transmission with climate change, identifying 12 relevant studies. Most studies (n=9) modelled the effect of the scenario of climate change on the distribution of relevant vector species and found that global warming could sometimes favour and sometimes hinder triatomine distribution. There is a need for more research in parasite biology and social sciences to further understand how climate change and socioeconomic factors can affect the epidemiology of this neglected tropical disease.}, }
@article {pmid39284047, year = {2024}, author = {Murray, LT and Leibensperger, EM and Mickley, LJ and Tai, APK}, title = {Estimating future climate change impacts on human mortality and crop yields via air pollution.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {39}, pages = {e2400117121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2400117121}, pmid = {39284047}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {AGS-1702106//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; AGS-2002414//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/analysis/adverse effects ; Humans ; *Ozone/analysis/adverse effects ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Particulate Matter/analysis/adverse effects ; Mortality/trends ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Future climate change may bring local benefits or penalties to surface air pollution, resulting from changing temperature, precipitation, and transport patterns, as well as changes in climate-sensitive natural precursor emissions. Here, we estimate the climate penalties and benefits at the end of this century with regard to surface ozone and fine particulate matter (PM[Formula: see text]; excluding dust and smoke) using a one-way offline coupling between a general circulation model and a global 3-D chemical-transport model. We archive meteorology for the present day (2005 to 2014) and end of this century (2090 to 2099) for seven future scenarios developed for Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The model isolates the impact of forecasted anthropogenic precursor emission changes versus that of climate-only driven changes on surface ozone and PM[Formula: see text] for scenarios ranging from extreme mitigation to extreme warming. We then relate these changes to impacts on human mortality and crop production. We find ozone penalties over nearly all land areas with increasing warming. We find net benefits due to climate-driven changes in PM[Formula: see text] in the Northern Extratropics, but net penalties in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere, where most population growth is forecast for the coming century.}, }
@article {pmid39282127, year = {2024}, author = {Mahmood, FM}, title = {Global warming and adverse pregnancy outcomes - the need for research and intervention.}, journal = {International journal of health sciences}, volume = {18}, number = {5}, pages = {1-3}, pmid = {39282127}, issn = {1658-3639}, }
@article {pmid39281649, year = {2024}, author = {Tebkew, M and Asfaw, Z and Worku, A}, title = {The role of agroforestry systems for addressing climate change livelihood vulnerability of farmers of Northwestern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {17}, pages = {e36196}, pmid = {39281649}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Farmers in Ethiopia have been vulnerable to climate change in recent decades. In the face of this change, farmers have managed agroforestry systems to maintain their livelihoods. However, studies exploring the role of agroforestry in reducing household vulnerability are lacking in Northwestern Ethiopia. The objectives of the study were to (i) investigate households' livelihoods vulnerability to climate change in Northwestern Ethiopia; (iii) assess the role of agroforestry in mitigating the negative impacts of climate change on farmers livelihoods. Key informant interviews, in-depth interviews, household surveys (387), and focus group discussions were used to collect the data. Descriptive statistics, principal component analysis, the X[2]-test, and the t-test were run to analyze the data. The findings revealed that households are vulnerable to rising temperatures, rainfall variability, frost, disease and pests, erosion, hailstorms, price hikes, wildlife damage to crops, and health stress. Agroforestry non-practitioners had a higher livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) (0.42 ± 0.081) than practitioners (0.46 ± 0.079). The Livelihood Vulnerability-Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Index (LVI-IPCC) showed that AF non-practitioners had a higher exposure (0.58), sensitivity (0.54) index, and a lower adaptive capacity index (0.44) than the exposure (0.34), sensitivity (0.38), and adaptive capacity index (0.51) of practitioners. Plant diversity, income level and diversity, livelihood activities, social network, and food security status of farmers were improved by agroforestry. Farmers were therefore less susceptible to adverse climate shocks. Thus, the AF system could be part of future adaptation and resilience programs that provide dependable tools to minimize households' vulnerability to climate shocks. However, management guidelines, such as understanding local ecosystems, setting clear objectives, choosing suitable species, planning for diversity, considering the market, and regular maintenance and monitoring, are needed for agroforestry to improve its contribution.}, }
@article {pmid39279888, year = {2024}, author = {Barcellos Madeira Rosa, Y and Tamanini Silva Moschen, H and Loss, AC and Cardoso da Silva, TC and Brioschi Dos Santos, AP and Caetano Pimenta, B and Nunes Zordan, JS and Cerutti Junior, C and Espinosa Barbosa Miranda, A and Drumond Louro, I and Dummer Meira, D and Vicente, CR}, title = {Climate change impacts on dengue transmission areas in Espírito Santo state, Brazil.}, journal = {Oxford open immunology}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {iqae011}, pmid = {39279888}, issn = {2633-6960}, abstract = {Espírito Santo state, in Brazil, is a dengue-endemic region predicted to suffer from an increase in temperature and drought due to climate change, which could affect the areas with active dengue virus transmission. The study objective was modeling climatic factors and climate change effects in zones suitable for dengue virus transmission in Espírito Santo state, Brazil. Data on dengue reports from 2022 were used to determine climatic variables related to spatial distribution. The climate change projections were generated for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s for three distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. A maximum entropy algorithm was used to construct the three models and projections, and the results were used to calculate the ensemble mean. Isothermality, the maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and annual precipitation impacted the model. Projections indicated a change in areas suitable for dengue virus transmission, varying from -30.44% in the 2070s (SSP1-2.6) to +13.07% in the 2070s (SSP5-8.5) compared to 2022. The coastal regions were consistently suitable in all scenarios. Urbanized and highly populated areas were predicted to persist with active dengue transmission in Espírito Santo state, posing challenges for public health response.}, }
@article {pmid39279795, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, WH and Peng, SL and Shu, H and Fu, X and Ye, XY}, title = {Potential adaptive habitats for the narrowly distributed and rare bamboo species Chimonobambusa tumidissinoda J. R. Xue &amp; T. P. Yi ex Ohrnb. under future climate change in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {9}, pages = {e70314}, pmid = {39279795}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The global climate change has resulted in substantial modifications to the distribution patterns of narrowly distributed species across different time periods, leading to an imminent threat to the survival of some vulnerable species. Chimonobambusa tumidissinoda J. R. Xue &amp; T. P. Yi ex Ohrnb., a bamboo species endemic to the transition zone from the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau to the Sichuan Basin with high economic and ecological value, exhibits a limited range and rarity. Utilizing eight environmental variables and 56 occurrence records, we employed the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution range of C. tumidissinoda under current and future climate scenarios. The findings revealed that precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), elevation and isothermality (Bio3) were the crucial factors determining the species' distribution, accounting for 31.24%, 28.27% and 17.24% of data variability, respectively. The distribution centroid of C. tumidissinoda is anticipated to shift towards higher latitudes in response to future climate change, and the projected habitat suitability is expected to expand under ssp245 and ssp585 scenarios while remaining unchanged or contracting under the ssp126 scenario. Despite these expansions, the suitable habitats remain limited, with the largest being approximately 2.08 × 10[4] km[2], indicating a significant threat to its survival. Our study provides insights into the adaptive responses of C. tumidissinoda to climate change, enriching scientific knowledge for developing effective conservation measurements as well as sustainable utilization.}, }
@article {pmid39278492, year = {2024}, author = {Qu, J and Qin, G and Huang, H and Ma, S and Lin, Q and Zhang, Z}, title = {Redistribution of vocal snapping shrimps under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176191}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176191}, pmid = {39278492}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {A variety of marine organisms can produce sounds that are important components of the marine soundscape and play a critical role in maintaining marine biodiversity. Climate change has greatly altered the geographical ranges of many marine species, including sound-producing organisms. However, the direction and the magnitude of the potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of sound-producing marine organisms in future remain largely unknown. To address this knowledge gap, we selected snapping shrimp, one of the most well-known marine sound-producing organisms, as a model species and explored their redistribution under climate change via species distribution models. We aimed to predict the redistribution of snapping shrimps under climate change and identify the influencing factors, which have important implications for marine conservation. Our models exhibited good discrimination abilities and identified maximum temperature as the most influential predictor of snapping shrimp distribution. Model predictions suggested that species richness is higher in tropical and temperate coastal waters and peaks in the Indo-Pacific region. The majority of snapping shrimp species are expected to respond to the changing climate by shifting their geographical ranges to deeper waters and higher latitudes. Our results showed that, in the future, high-latitude species were more likely to experience range expansion, whereas low-latitude species might experience range contraction. Moreover, the Central Indo-Pacific are predicted to suffer the biggest decline in species richness, whereas areas such as the coastal waters of southern Australia and northern China might serve as climate refuges for snapping shrimps in the future. In summary, this study highlights the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of sound-producing snapping shrimps, which may result in cascading effects on marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid39278183, year = {2024}, author = {Çelik Eren, D and Kabataş Yıldız, M}, title = {Is climate change awareness a predictor of anxiety among nursing students?: A cross-sectional study.}, journal = {Nurse education today}, volume = {143}, number = {}, pages = {106390}, doi = {10.1016/j.nedt.2024.106390}, pmid = {39278183}, issn = {1532-2793}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Determining the climate change anxiety and awareness of student nurses, who will provide health services in various parts of the world after the borders are removed, is important in combating climate change.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The study aims to assess whether nursing students' climate change awareness is a predictor of climate change anxiety.<br><br>DESIGN: This research adopts a descriptive cross-sectional study design.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: The population of the study consisted of a total of 562 students studying in the nursing department of a state university. 419 students were included in study.<br><br>METHODS: Data were gathered from 419 students enrolled in the nursing department of a university during the fall semester of 2022-2023, employing online questionnaires via Google Forms from January to March 2023. The research instrument comprised three parts: a Descriptive Information Form developed in line with the literature, the Global Climate Change Awareness Scale, and the Climate Change Anxiety Scale. SPSS 20.0 software was used for data analysis. The study obtained ethical committee approval, institutional permissions, and participant consent.<br><br>RESULTS: Findings indicated that nursing students' mean Global Climate Change Awareness Scale total score was 59.06&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;15.78, Climate Change Anxiety Scale total score was determined to be 21.27&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;8.75. A moderate positive relationship was identified between global climate change awareness and climate change anxiety levels among nursing students (r&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.304, p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05). Furthermore, the study revealed that the participants' awareness of global climate change served as a predictor for their anxiety levels.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The climate change awareness of nursing students significantly influences their levels of anxiety related to climate change. Integrating climate change awareness into nursing education is quite important and necessary. This can empower future nurses to be more prepared and effective in a changing world.}, }
@article {pmid39277804, year = {2024}, author = {Kraft, C and Bühren, C and Wicker, P}, title = {The correlates of environmental initiatives in sports organizations with climate change attitudes and subjective well-being.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdae261}, pmid = {39277804}, issn = {1741-3850}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: To recognize the interplay between climate change and public health, this study examines the impact of sports organizations' environmental initiatives on members' subjective well-being (SWB) and climate change attitudes (CCA). Drawing on the theoretical tenets of pro-social behavior, organizational initiatives aiming at protecting and improving the natural environment can be viewed as altruistic. This altruism can in turn increase SWB.<br><br>METHODS: The analysis uses survey data from the 2022 Eurobarometer, including 27 European countries and 6311 members of different types of sports organizations. Seemingly unrelated regression models were employed to assess the associations of various environmental initiatives with members' SWB and CCA.<br><br>RESULTS: The total number of initiatives and specific initiatives, such as promoting green energy and waste reduction, are positively correlated with members' CCA. However, there is no effect on SWB.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Organizational environmental initiatives may shape members' attitudes towards climate change but do not seem to affect their SWB. This would suggest that environmental protection does not come at the expense of SWB. Thus, sports organizations represent a context to promote environmental protection along with public health.}, }
@article {pmid39276653, year = {2024}, author = {Vercambre, G and Mirás-Avalos, JM and Juillion, P and Moradzadeh, M and Plenet, D and Valsesia, P and Memah, MM and Launay, M and Lesniak, V and Cheviron, B and Genard, M and Lescourret, F}, title = {Analyzing the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services provided by apple orchards in Southeast France using a process-based model.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {122470}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122470}, pmid = {39276653}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {We know that fruit production, especially in the Mediterranean, will need to adapt to climate change to ensure the sustainability of fruit tree-based agroecosystems. However, there is a lack of evidence on the long-term effects of this change on sustainability indicators. To fill this gap, we used a fruit tree model, QualiTree, to analyze the impacts ofclimate change on the ecosystem services provided by apple orchards in south-eastern France. To do this, a blooming model was parameterized to simulate blooming date on the basis of climate data, and QualiTree was supplemented with a model of nitrogen processes in the tree and a soil module describing resource input (irrigation, mineral and organic fertilization), transfer in the soil (water and nitrogen) and metabolic transformation-immobilization (mineralization, (de)nitrification). This type of extension makes it possible to simulate a wide array of ecosystem services, including C sequestration, nitrate leaching and nitrous oxide emissions. The model was compared with data from an apple orchard in southeastern France. The predicted daily mean and variability over time of fruit growth, composition and soil water content were consistent with observed data. QualiTree was then used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the ecosystem services supplied by apple orchards. For this purpose, weather variables from 2020 to 2100 were generated for three contrasted greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and simulations were performed under two irrigation schemes (no restriction and restricted use of water). Model outputs indicated that, on average, marketable apple yields would increase until 2050 and then subsequently decrease. The fruit refractometric index, an indicator of fruit quality, was projected to sharply decrease with the intensity of climate change. Ecosystem services such as C sequestration by the orchard will decrease with climate change severity, mainly due to a higher mineralization of soil humus, whereas N2O emissions will increase with larger denitrification rates. Soil water availability, fertility, drainage and leaching were predicted to depend more on the irrigation strategy than on climate change severity. The new functions performed in QualiTree broadened its predictive capabilities and allowed for a better understanding of ecosystem service delivery in fruit orchards under varying climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid39273931, year = {2024}, author = {Angelotti, F and Hamada, E and Bettiol, W}, title = {A Comprehensive Review of Climate Change and Plant Diseases in Brazil.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {39273931}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Analyzing the impacts of climate change on phytosanitary problems in Brazil is crucial due to the country's special role in global food security as one of the largest producers of essential commodities. This review focuses on the effects of climate change on plant diseases and discusses its main challenges in light of Brazil's diverse agricultural landscape. To assess the risk of diseases caused by fungi, bacteria, viruses, oomycetes, nematodes, and spiroplasms, we surveyed 304 pathosystems across 32 crops of economic importance from 2005 to 2022. Results show that diseases caused by fungi account for 79% of the pathosystems evaluated. Predicting the occurrence of diseases in a changing climate is a complex challenge, and the continuity of this work is strategic for Brazil's agricultural defense. The future risk scenarios analyzed here aim to help guide disease mitigation for cropping systems. Despite substantial progress and ongoing efforts, further research will be needed to effectively prevent economic and environmental damage.}, }
@article {pmid39273838, year = {2024}, author = {Rajan, P and Natraj, P and Kim, M and Lee, M and Jang, YJ and Lee, YJ and Kim, SC}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on and Response Strategies for Kiwifruit Production: A Comprehensive Review.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {39273838}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {PJ01508101//This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development (Project No. PJ01508101)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea. This study was supported by 2024 the RDA Fellowsh/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change, a pressing global concern, poses significant challenges to agricultural systems worldwide. Among the myriad impacts of climate change, the cultivation of kiwifruit trees (Actinidia spp.) faces multifaceted challenges. In this review, we delve into the intricate effects of climate change on kiwifruit production, which span phenological shifts, distributional changes, physiological responses, and ecological interactions. Understanding these complexities is crucial for devising effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to safeguard kiwifruit production amidst climate variability. This review scrutinizes the influence of rising global temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and a heightened frequency of extreme weather events on the regions where kiwifruits are cultivated. Additionally, it delves into the ramifications of changing climatic conditions on kiwifruit tree physiology, phenology, and susceptibility to pests and diseases. The economic and social repercussions of climate change on kiwifruit production, including yield losses, livelihood impacts, and market dynamics, are thoroughly examined. In response to these challenges, this review proposes tailored adaptation and mitigation strategies for kiwifruit cultivation. This includes breeding climate-resilient kiwifruit cultivars of the Actinidia species that could withstand drought and high temperatures. Additional measures would involve implementing sustainable farming practices like irrigation, mulching, rain shelters, and shade management, as well as conserving soil and water resources. Through an examination of the literature, this review showcases the existing innovative approaches for climate change adaptation in kiwifruit farming. It concludes with recommendations for future research directions aimed at promoting the sustainability and resilience of fruit production, particularly in the context of kiwifruit cultivation, amid a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid39273821, year = {2024}, author = {Provenzi, L and Ovalles Gomez, MA and Frassone, S and Pilo, C and Angiolini, E and Barello, S}, title = {Climate Change Challenge Faced by Italian Children: A Nationwide Study.}, journal = {Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {39273821}, issn = {2227-9032}, support = {Triplepact SRL//Triplepact SRL/ ; Ricerca Corrente 2022-2024//Ministero della Salute/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens environmental stability and human health, with limited research on younger children's perceptions. This study examines Italian primary school children's views on climate change to guide educational and policy strategies. Surveying 973 children (5-11 years) from different regions, findings showed high awareness (93%) and concern (63%) about climate change. Regional differences indicated greater concern in the south. Gender disparities revealed females were more concerned and experienced more sleep difficulties. Younger children had stronger emotional responses, while older ones showed increased pro-environmental behaviors. Despite moderate self-confidence in effecting change, a strong sense of responsibility and trust in adults was prevalent. These results highlight the need for early, continuous climate education tailored to regional, age, and gender-specific needs. Addressing children's views on climate change can help educators and policymakers foster resilience and proactive attitudes, supporting the development of informed and engaged future stewards of the planet.}, }
@article {pmid39272262, year = {2024}, author = {Luo, Y and Xu, J and Zhang, X and Hou, Y}, title = {Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Selection of Reintroduction Sites for the South China Tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) in China.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {39272262}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {PT252022023//Jin Xu/ ; }, abstract = {The South China tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) is a tiger subspecies unique to China and one of the top ten endangered species in the world. It used to play an important role in the overall function of the ecosystem. This study rationally screened out key prey species of the South China tiger-the Chinese serow, Chinese goral, tufted deer, water deer, Chinese muntjac, red muntjac, sambar deer, and wild boar. Candidate sites for the rewilding and reintroduction of the South China tiger were derived by exploring changes in suitable habitats for the prey using the MaxEnt model. The results show that: (1) by 2070, except for the high-suitability areas of water deer and Chinese muntjac, the areas of suitable habitats for the other six prey species would all have decreased significantly; (2) the location of the high-suitability area of the South China tiger obtained by superimposing the suitable areas of the eight prey species would be almost stable in 2050 and 2070, but the habitat index of some high- and medium-suitability areas would decrease and turn into low-suitability areas; (3) the core candidate sites were 83,415 km[2] in total, of which 25,630 km[2] overlapped with existing protected areas, accounting for 30.7% of the core candidate sites, and the remaining 69.3% of the core candidate sites were mostly distributed around the protected areas; (4) the maximum core candidate site area was projected to be 10,000 km[2] by 2070, which could support a small population of 23 male tigers and 66 female tigers to survive and reproduce in the wild. This study revealed the core candidate sites for the rewilding of South China tigers and estimated the number of tigers that could be reintroduced to these areas, providing a preliminary research basis for promoting the rewilding of South China tigers in China.}, }
@article {pmid39270865, year = {2024}, author = {Zhao, C and Liu, Z and Wang, H and Dai, X and Meng, S and Fu, X and Jiang, Q and Lv, W and Chen, J and Gao, D}, title = {Increased global warming potential during freeze-thaw cycle is primarily due to the contribution of N2O rather than CO2.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176232}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176232}, pmid = {39270865}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {While freeze-thaw cycle (FTC) can influence greenhouse gas emissions, the specific greenhouse gas that responds most strongly to FTC, as well as the underlying mechanisms, remain unclear. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis to explore the responses of global warming potential (GWP) and the fluxes of CO2 and N2O to FTC. Our results showed that FTC treatment significantly increased GWP, N2O flux, cumulative GWP, and cumulative N2O emissions by 23.1 %, 53.2 %, 14.5 %, and 164.6 %, respectively, but did not affect CO2 flux, indicating that the enhanced GWP during the FTC period may be primarily due to the contribution of N2O flux rather than CO2 flux. The responses of GWP (+68.6 %), CO2 (21.0 %), and N2O fluxes (136.3 %) in croplands was higher than those in other ecosystems, exhibiting a strong dependence on ecosystem types. The effect size of FTC treatment on greenhouse gas emissions escalated with decreasing freezing temperature and diminished with increasing FTC frequency. Moreover, mean annual temperature (MAT) and FTC patterns were key factors influencing GWP during the FTC period. These findings provide critical insights into the variations in greenhouse gas emissions due to FTC and its influencing factors, allowing for more accurate predictions of the future impact of global climate change on GWP.}, }
@article {pmid39270337, year = {2024}, author = {Yamane, M and Honda, H and Murata, M and Kawaguchi, T and Ishikawa, Y}, title = {Global-SHANEL Asia model predicting chemical concentration in rivers with high spatio-temporal resolution, suitable for climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {122335}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122335}, pmid = {39270337}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Assessing the concentrations of various chemicals in river water is critical for ensuring global environmental sustainability. There is an increasing need to assess water risks in southeast Asia due to the increasing chemical pollution associated with the rapid economic growth and abnormal weather. Although AIST-SHANEL, a model for analyzing chemical concentrations in river water based on the characteristics of individual rivers and meteorological conditions, is useful for assessing the water risks, this model currently only applies to Japanese rivers due to the lack of global data. To facilitate the high-spatio-temporal-resolution exposure assessment for aquatic organisms systems in southeast Asia, we built a Global-SHANEL Asia model (expanded model of the AIST-SHANEL) by collecting and processing open geospatial and meteorological data in Asia. Estimated river flow rates and concentrations of linear alkyl benzenesulfonic acid (LAS) were compared to measured values. Our model precisely estimated the seasonal variation of flow rates related to weather changes and predicted LAS concentrations at a practical level (within one order of magnitude). The model visualizes the overall distribution of LAS concentrations in southeast Asia and identifies hotspots where chemical concentrations could increase. The model visualizes the chemical distribution across countries to facilitate risk assessments for chemical pollution in future climate change and population projections. The model identifies chemical pollution and aids decision-making to promote environmental sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid39268690, year = {2024}, author = {Bede-Fazekas, &#xc1; and Somodi, I}, title = {Precipitation and temperature timings underlying bioclimatic variables rearrange under climate change globally.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {9}, pages = {e17496}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17496}, pmid = {39268690}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NKFIH-471-3/2021//National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change/ ; RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014//National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change/ ; SA-64/2021//E&#xf6;tv&#xf6;s Lor&#xe1;nd Research Network, Hungary/ ; J&#xe1;nos Bolyai Research Scholarship//Hungarian Academy of Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Rain ; *Temperature ; Climate Models ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Modeling how climate change may affect the potential distribution of species and communities typically utilizes bioclimatic variables. Distribution predictions rely on the values of the bioclimatic variable (e.g., precipitation of the wettest quarter). However, the ecological meaning of most of these variables depends strongly on the within-year position of a specific climate period (SCP), for example, the wettest quarter of the year, which is often overlooked. Our aim was to determine how the within-year position of the SCPs would shift (SCP shift) in reaction to climate change in a global context. We calculated the deviations of the future within-year position of the SCPs relative to the reference period. We used four future time periods, four scenarios, and four CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) to provide an ensemble of expectations regarding SCP shifts and locate the spatial hotspots of the shifts. Also, the size and frequency of the SCP shifts were subjected to linear models to evaluate the importance of the impact modeler's decision on time period, scenario, and GCM. We found ample examples of SCP shifts exceeding 2 months, with 6-month shifts being predicted as well. Many areas in the tropics are expected to experience both temperature and precipitation-related shifts, but precipitation-related shifts are abundantly predicted for the temperate and arctic zones as well. The combined shifts at the Equator reinforce the likelihood of the emergence of no-analogue climates there. The shifts become more pronounced as time and scenario progress, while GCMs could not be ranked in a clear order in this respect. For most SCPs, the modeler's decision on the GCM was the least important, while the choice of time period was typically more important than the choice of scenario. Future predictive distribution models should account for SCP shifts and incorporate the phenomenon in the modeling efforts.}, }
@article {pmid39270329, year = {2024}, author = {Fox, TP and Raka, YP and Smith, K and Harrison, JF}, title = {Mesocosm Studies Suggest Climate Change May Release Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Larvae from Cold Inhibition and Enable Year-Round Development in a Desert City.}, journal = {Ecological and evolutionary physiology}, volume = {97}, number = {4}, pages = {250-261}, doi = {10.1086/731710}, pmid = {39270329}, issn = {2993-7973}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aedes/physiology/growth &amp; development ; *Larva/physiology/growth &amp; development ; *Seasons ; *Cold Temperature ; *Climate Change ; Arizona ; Desert Climate ; Cities ; }, abstract = {AbstractGlobal warming trends, human-assisted transport, and urbanization have allowed poleward expansion of many tropical vector species, but the specific mechanisms responsible for thermal mediation of range changes and ecological success of invaders remain poorly understood. Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) is a tropical mosquito currently expanding into many higher-latitude regions, including the urban desert region of Maricopa County, Arizona. Here, adult populations virtually disappear in winter and spring and then increase exponentially through summer and fall, indicating that winter conditions remain a barrier to the development of some life stages of A. aegypti. To determine whether cold limits the winter development of A. aegypti larvae in Maricopa County, we surveyed for larval abundance and tested their capacity to develop in ambient and warmed conditions. Aedes aegypti larvae were not observed in artificial aquatic habitats in winter and spring but were abundant in summer and fall, suggesting winter suppression of adults, larvae, or both. Water temperatures in winter months fluctuated strongly; larvae were usually cold paralyzed at night but active during the day. Despite daytime temperatures that allowed activity and achieving similar degree-days as warmed mesocosms, larvae reared under ambient winter conditions were unable to develop to adulthood, perhaps due to repetitive cold damage. However, warming average temperature by 1.7°C allowed many larvae to successfully develop to adults. Because daytime highs in winter will often allow adult flight, it is likely that relatively minor additional winter warming may allow A. aegypti populations to develop and reproduce year-round in Maricopa County.}, }
@article {pmid39267332, year = {2024}, author = {Fernández Salgueiro, M and Cernuda Martínez, JA and Gan, RK and Arcos González, P}, title = {Climate change and antibiotic resistance: A scoping review.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology reports}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {e70008}, doi = {10.1111/1758-2229.70008}, pmid = {39267332}, issn = {1758-2229}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology ; Ecosystem ; Drug Resistance, Microbial/genetics ; Humans ; Bacteria/drug effects/genetics/classification/isolation &amp; purification ; Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This scoping review aimed to investigate the potential association between climate change and the rise of antibiotic resistance while also exploring the elements of climate change that may be involved. A scoping review was performed following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews, comprehensively searching scientific literature up to 31 January 2024. Multiple databases were utilized, including MEDLINE, Web of Science and SCOPUS. Various search strategies were employed, and selection criteria were established to include articles relevant to antibiotic resistance and climate change. The review included 30 selected articles published predominantly after 2019. Findings from these studies collectively suggest that rising temperatures associated with climate change can contribute to the proliferation of antibiotic resistance, affecting diverse ecosystems. This phenomenon is observed in soil, glaciers, rivers and clinical settings. Rising temperatures are associated with a rise in the prevalence of antibiotic resistance across various environments, raising concerns for global health. However, these studies provide valuable insights but do not establish a definitive causal link between environmental temperature and antibiotic resistance. The selective pressure exerted by antibiotics and their residues in ecosystems further complicates the issue.}, }
@article {pmid39268056, year = {2024}, author = {Gerber, Z and Anaki, D}, title = {The impact of death priming on climate change denial: a preliminary investigation.}, journal = {F1000Research}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {737}, pmid = {39268056}, issn = {2046-1402}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Denial, Psychological ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Attitude to Death ; Young Adult ; Adaptation, Psychological ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change denial (CCD) has been found to be more pronounced among individuals with a conservative political orientation. Terror Management Theory posits that an individual's worldview serves as a primary defense mechanism in coping with existential threats, such as the reality of climate change. Drawing on these premises, we conducted preliminary research investigating the impact of death priming on CCD from the Terror management theory perspective.<br><br>METHODS AND RESULTS: We administered a death priming task and measured CCD in its immediate wake or following a delay task. We confirmed among 219 Amazon's MTurk participants that immediately following death priming, CCD was reduced among all participants. In the delayed death priming condition, we acquired preliminary evidence that CCD was heightened among Republican participants.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate the relevance of death priming to CCD tendencies and potentially spawn future research regarding CCD as a particular form of coping with existential threats.}, }
@article {pmid39267692, year = {2024}, author = {Bush, SE and Waller, MM and Davis, KM and Clayton, SF and Clayton, DH}, title = {Birds in arid regions have depauperate louse communities: Climate change implications?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {9}, pages = {e70280}, pmid = {39267692}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Environmental factors such as temperature and humidity influence the distribution of free-living organisms. As climates change, the distributions of these organisms change along with their associated parasites, mutualists and commensals. Less studied, however, is the possibility that environmental conditions may directly influence the distribution of these symbionts even if the hosts are able to persist in altered environments. Here, we investigate the diversity of parasitic lice (Insecta: Phthiraptera) on birds in arid Utah compared to the humid Bahamas. We quantified the parasite loads of 500 birds. We found that the prevalence, abundance and richness of lice was considerably lower among birds in Utah, compared to the Bahamas, despite sampling greater host taxonomic richness in Utah. Our data suggest that as climates change, birds in arid regions will have less diverse louse communities over time, potentially relieving birds of some of the cost of controlling these ectoparasites. Conversely, birds in more humid regions will see an increase in louse diversity, which may require them to invest more time and energy in anti-parasite defense. Additional research with other ectoparasites of birds and mammals across different environmental conditions is needed to more fully understand how climate change may reshape parasite communities, and how these changes could influence their hosts.}, }
@article {pmid39265690, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, Z and Wang, W and Zhu, W and Zhang, P and Chang, R and Wang, G}, title = {Shrub ecosystem structure in response to anthropogenic climate change: A global synthesis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {953}, number = {}, pages = {176202}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176202}, pmid = {39265690}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Anthropogenic warming is predicted to alter ecological boundaries in energy-limited shrub ecosystems. Yet we still lack a sound understanding of the structural changes that shrub ecosystems are undergoing on a global scale and the factors driving them. To that end, here we collected studies of shrub dynamics from 227 sites worldwide to conduct a quantitative review, including the rate of advancing shrubline (their upslope shift), the rates of shrub cover and recruitment changes. Our results revealed that shrub expanded (e.g. shrubline shifts, shrub cover and recruitment increase) at the vast majority of sites (84 %); in contrast, they remained stable in 10 % of sites and descended at just 6 % of them. The mean global shift rate of shrubline was 1.22 m/year, being significantly faster in subarctic (> 60°N) than temperate (< 60°N) regions, and likewise more quickly in wet (total annual precipitation >400 mm) than dry (total annual precipitation <400 mm) areas; the annual change rates of shrub cover and recruitment increased by 0.89 % and 2.02 %. Shrubs communities have expanded rapidly in response to ongoing climate warming. The combination of autumn precipitation and winter temperature largely contributed to the general shift rates of shrubline, while the shrub cover and recruitment were mainly affected by summer temperature and precipitation in both spring and autumn. Furthermore, the site-specific pace of their expansion probably depends on a combination of local climatic and non-climatic drivers (such as fine-scale environmental conditions, disturbance, their interactions, and dispersal limitation). The increase of shrub distribution may alter the function and albedo of the ecosystems at high-latitude and -elevation regions, resulting in the feedback on climate.}, }
@article {pmid39265675, year = {2024}, author = {Twumasi-Ankrah, MJ and Zhan, J and Asamoah, EF}, title = {Mapping ecoregional vulnerability to climate change for Africa.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {953}, number = {}, pages = {176219}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176219}, pmid = {39265675}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {African ecosystems are expected to be significantly affected by climate change, making it crucial to understand these changes for effective management. We provide a framework and application to assess ecoregional vulnerability to climate change, considering environmental exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We assessed environmental exposure using projections for consecutive dry days, precipitation, and temperature changes. Sensitivity was determined based on forest fragmentation and grassland degradation. Adaptive capacity was represented by protected areas network and biodiversity intactness. These factors were combined to create overall vulnerability index and specific categories to guide management decisions. Under the SSP5 8.5 scenario, 16 % of ecoregions will be highly impacted by 2050, with vulnerable areas emerging in Montane forest-grassland and flooded savanna. Impacted ecoregions are disproportionately biodiverse. By intersecting the likely climate impacts and adaptive capacity, we highlight where conservation actions are needed to enhance the resilience of ecoregions to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39264835, year = {2024}, author = {Diehl, N and Laeseke, P and Bartsch, I and Bligh, M and Buck-Wiese, H and Hehemann, JH and Niedzwiedz, S and Plag, N and Karsten, U and Shan, T and Bischof, K}, title = {Photoperiod and temperature interactions drive the latitudinal distribution of Laminaria hyperborea (Laminariales, Phaeophyceae) under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of phycology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jpy.13497}, pmid = {39264835}, issn = {1529-8817}, support = {869154//This study was conducted in the frame of the project FACE-IT (The Future of Arctic Coastal Ecosystems - Identifying Transitions in Fjord Systems and Adjacent Coastal Areas). FACE-IT has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement/ ; GR5088/2-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; }, abstract = {Due to global rises in temperature, recent studies predict marine species shifting toward higher latitudes. We investigated the impact of interacting abiotic drivers on the distribution potential of the temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea. The ecosystem engineering species is widespread along European coasts but has not yet been observed in the High Arctic, although it can survive several months of low temperatures and darkness. To investigate its ability to extend northward in future, we conducted a long-term multifactorial experiment with sporophytes from Porsangerfjorden, Norway-close to the species' documented northernmost distribution margin. The samples were exposed to three different photoperiods (PolarDay, LongDay, and PolarNight) at 0°C, 5°C, and 10°C for 3 months. Optimum quantum yield of photosynthesis (Fv/Fm), dry weight, pigments, phlorotannins, and storage carbohydrates were monitored. Both physiological and biochemical parameters revealed that L. hyperborea was strongly influenced by the different photoperiods and their interaction with temperature, while temperature alone exerted only minor effects. The Fv/Fm data were integrated into a species distribution model to project a possible northward expansion of L. hyperborea. The combination of extended day lengths and low temperatures appeared to be the limiting reason for northward spread of L. hyperborea until recently. However, with water temperatures reaching 10°C in summer, this kelp will be able to thrive also in the High Arctic. Moreover, no evidence of stress to Arctic winter warming was observed. Consequently, L. hyperborea has a high potential for spreading northward with further warming which may significantly affect the structure and function of Arctic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid39263066, year = {2024}, author = {Marais-Potgieter, A and Thatcher, A and Siemers, I}, title = {Modelling associations between mortality salience, environmental concerns, and climate change risk perception in the context of the pandemic.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {17}, pages = {e36722}, pmid = {39263066}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The pandemic and climate change are mortality salience triggers. Environmental issues, attitudes, and climate change risk perceptions were hypothesised to impact how individuals perceived the threat of COVID-19 and climate change during the pandemic. The study explored: 1.) the associations between seeing a link between COVID-19 and climate change and environmental concerns; 2.) the associations between mortality salience and environmental concerns; 3.) the associations between feeling less worried during the pandemic and environmental concerns; and 4.) what these associations tell us about the relationship between mortality salience, the perceived link between COVID-19 and climate change, and feeling less worried during the pandemic. A sample of 665 respondents was achieved from an online survey in 2021. The results of the multiple regression analysis and structural equation modelling showed that environmental issues, attitudes and perceptions, time spent in nature, and climate change risk perception played a role in the extent to which individuals perceived COVID-19 as an indicator of climate change threats, whether mortality salience was made conscious, and whether there was distancing of concern about climate change and social issues during the pandemic. The study makes an important contribution to understanding psychological processes that are activated during disasters that trigger mortality salience, and how this is impacted by the human-nature nexus, and climate change risk perception.}, }
@article {pmid39262673, year = {2024}, author = {Wagatsuma, K}, title = {Climate change and expansion of vector-borne diseases in Japan: A public health challenge.}, journal = {New microbes and new infections}, volume = {62}, number = {}, pages = {101462}, pmid = {39262673}, issn = {2052-2975}, }
@article {pmid39261713, year = {2024}, author = {Xi, Y and Zhang, W and Wei, F and Fang, Z and Fensholt, R}, title = {Boreal tree species diversity increases with global warming but is reversed by extremes.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39261713}, issn = {2055-0278}, abstract = {Tree species diversity is essential to sustaining stable forest ecosystem functioning. However, it remains unclear how boreal tree species diversity has changed in response to climate change and how it is associated with productivity and the temporal stability of boreal forest ecosystems. By combining 5,312 field observations and 55,560 Landsat images, here we develop a framework to estimate boreal tree species diversity (represented by the Shannon diversity index, H') for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020. We document an average increase in H' by 12% from 2000 to 2020 across the boreal forests. This increase accounts for 53% of all boreal forest areas and mainly occurs in the eastern forest-boreal transition region, the Okhotsk-Manchurian taiga and the Scandinavian-Russian taiga. Tree species diversity responds positively to increasing temperatures, but the relationship is weakened for higher temperature changes, and in areas of extreme warming (>0.065 °C yr[-1]), a negative impact on tree species diversity is found. We further show that the observed spatiotemporal increase in diversity is significantly associated with increased productivity and temporal stability of boreal forest biomass. Our results highlight climate-warming-driven increases in boreal tree species diversity that positively affect boreal ecosystem functioning but are countered in areas of extreme warming.}, }
@article {pmid39261484, year = {2024}, author = {Zhao, Y and Zhang, L and Wang, C}, title = {Predicting possible distribution of rice leaf roller (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt model in China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {21245}, pmid = {39261484}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2022YFD1400400//National Key R &amp; D Program of China/ ; 2022YFD1400400//National Key R &amp; D Program of China/ ; 2022YFD1400400//National Key R &amp; D Program of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; China ; *Oryza/parasitology ; Animals ; Moths/physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {The relationship between climate conditions and pest life is a key determinant of their distribution. Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee, a major rice pest, exhibits outbreaks and its distribution patterns closely linked to meteorological factors. By using 244 actual distribution and occurrence data of C. medinalis along with 8 bioclimatic data, and employing the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS, combined with the latest SSPs climate scenario data, this study evaluated the risk region distribution status in the current period and predicted changes in China from 2040 to 2100. The results indicate that an overall increase in the risk area for C. medinalis, particularly under SSP245 scenario during 2040-2060. While Low-risk areas are expected to decrease, Medium and High-risk areas are projected to increase significantly, with worsening pest infestations anticipated in southern Hubei, eastern Hunan, most of Jiangxi, central Fujian, northern Guangdong, and southern Jiangsu. Regions such as central Liaoning are expected to reach the minimum survival standard for C. medinalis in future, leading to the northward shift in risk areas. Difference plots highlighted areas of increased and decreased suitability, providing actionable insights for policymakers. Regions with increased suitability align with the predicted northward shift of many agricultural pests, necessitating enhanced monitoring, specific pest control measures, and updated agricultural policies to address changing risk profiles. Additionally, the centroid analysis showed a northwest shift direction in future, primarily located at the junction of Shaoyang City and Loudi City, situated around 27-28 °N degrees north latitude and 111-113 °E. The study underscores the significant impact of climate change on the distribution of rice leaf roller, providing valuable insights for agricultural planning and management. The northward and westward expansion of risk areas necessitates adaptive strategies to mitigate potential impacts on agriculture. Enhanced monitoring, integrated pest management, and the development of pest-resistant crops are essential for addressing future challenges posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39263045, year = {2022}, author = {Abdullahi, B and Mutiso, J and Maloba, F and Macharia, J and Riongoita, M and Gicheru, M}, title = {Climate Change and Environmental Influence on Prevalence of Visceral Leishmaniasis in West Pokot County, Kenya.}, journal = {Journal of tropical medicine}, volume = {2022}, number = {}, pages = {1441576}, pmid = {39263045}, issn = {1687-9686}, abstract = {Kala-azar is a parasitic disease caused by Leishmania species transmitted by sand fly. In Kenya, kala-azar is endemic in thirty subcounties spread over in eleven counties in the arid zones. Climate change-influenced seasonal weather variability and environmental alterations remain important determinants of many vector-borne diseases. The present study focused on climate change and environmental influence on kala-azar in West Pokot. A descriptive cross-sectional and retrospective research design was adapted. Study area was purposively selected. Locations were randomly selected, and households were systematically selected. Three hundred sixty-three household questionnaires, eleven key informant interviews, and five focus group discussions were undertaken. Secondary data were obtained from Kacheliba subcounty hospital records. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 24 was used to analyze quantitative data while qualitative data were analyzed to establish connection for interpretation. Kala-azar cases have been on the rise on aggregate and surge towards the end of dry season and just after the rains. Significant environmental factors included the presence of seasonal rain water pathways and rock piles around houses (AOR = 4.7; 95% CI = (2.3-9.6), p < 0.05), presence of acacia trees in and around homesteads (AOR = 8.5; 95% CI = (2.5-28.6), p < 0.05), presence of anthills around the homesteads (AOR = 5.2; 95% CI = (1.2-23.4), p < 0.05), and presence of animal shed within compound (AOR = 2.8; 95% CI = (0.96-8), p < 0.05). Climate change-induced seasonal weather variability, increased temperature and reduced precipitation as well as environmental alterations influence kala-azar occurrence in West Pokot. Community sensitization on disease prevalence, clearing of vector predilection sites, and improving community environmental risk perception are imperative to promote prevention.}, }
@article {pmid39258208, year = {2024}, author = {AlZaabi, A and Younus, HA and Al-Reasi, HA and Al-Hajri, R}, title = {Could environmental exposure and climate change Be a key factor in the rising incidence of early onset colorectal cancer?.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {16}, pages = {e35935}, pmid = {39258208}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The emergence of early onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) is believed to result from the complex interplay between external environmental factors and internal molecular processes. This review investigates the potential association between environmental exposure to chemicals and climate change and the increased incidence of EOCRC, focusing on their effects on gut microbiota (GM) dynamics. The manuscript explores the birth cohort effect, suggesting that individuals born after 1950 may be at higher risk of developing EOCRC due to cumulative environmental exposures. Furthermore, we also reviewed the impact of environmental pollution, including particulate matter and endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs), as well as global warming, on GM disturbance. Environmental exposures have the potential to disrupt GM composition and diversity, leading to dysbiosis, chronic inflammation, and oxidative stress, which are known risk factors associated with EOCRC. Particulate matter can enter the gastrointestinal tract, modifying GM composition and promoting the proliferation of pathogenic bacteria while diminishing beneficial bacteria. Similarly, EDCs, can induce GM alterations and inflammation, further increasing the risk of EOCRC. Additionally, global warming can influence GM through shifts in gut environmental conditions, affecting the host's immune response and potentially increasing EOCRC risk. To summarize, environmental exposure to chemicals and climate change since 1950 has been implicated as contributing factors to the rising incidence of EOCRC. Disruptions in gut microbiota homeostasis play a crucial role in mediating these associations. Consequently, there is a pressing need for enhanced environmental policies aimed at minimizing exposure to pollutants, safeguarding public health, and mitigating the burden of EOCRC.}, }
@article {pmid39257840, year = {2024}, author = {Bakhiyi, B and Irace-Cima, A and Ludwig, A and Rakotoarinia, MR and Therrien, C and Dusfour, I and Adam-Poupart, A}, title = {Public health contributions of entomological surveillance of West Nile virus (WNV) and other mosquito-borne arboviruses in a context of climate change.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {50}, number = {9}, pages = {294-304}, pmid = {39257840}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is likely to increase the risk of human transmission of arboviruses endemic to Canada, including West Nile virus (WNV), Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) and California serogroup virus (CSV), calling for enhanced surveillance, including entomological surveillance targeting mosquito vectors. A scoping review was carried out to document the public health contributions of entomological surveillance of arboviruses of importance in Canada.<br><br>METHODS: The Ovid&#xae; and EBSCO platforms and the grey literature were searched to identify documents published between 2009 and 2023, in English or French, dealing with entomological surveillance of arboviruses of interest, conducted annually for human health purposes under the aegis of a government authority, with specified public health objectives and actions.<br><br>RESULTS: The 42 selected publications mainly reported two public health objectives of adult mosquito surveillance: early warning of viral circulation and assessment of the level of risk of human transmission. Recommended actions included clinical preparedness, risk communication, promotion of personal protection measures and vector control. The main objectives of immature mosquito surveillance were to identify sites with high larval densities, in order to reduce/eliminate them and target the application of larvicides.<br><br>CONCLUSION: In a context of climate change favouring the spread of arboviruses, this study highlights the potential public health contributions of regular entomological surveillance of endemic arboviruses of importance in Canada. It helps support concrete actions to protect the health of the population from the risks of arboviral transmission.}, }
@article {pmid39257608, year = {2024}, author = {Kashyap, S and Reddy, BHR and Devi, S and Kurpad, AV}, title = {Potential impact of climate change on dietary grain protein content and its bioavailability-a mini review.}, journal = {Frontiers in nutrition}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1397219}, pmid = {39257608}, issn = {2296-861X}, abstract = {The changing global climate brings a gradual yet constant and adverse shift in crop production. Grain crop plants, particularly cereals and legumes, respond varyingly to adverse climate, including reduction in grain yield and changes to their nutrient densities. An understanding of specific changes to crop systems under differing climatic conditions can help in planning diets to meet human nutrient sufficiency. Grain protein content is also affected by adverse environmental factors. Deficits in protein yield, linked to changes in grain or seed protein and antinutrient concentrations, have been reported in major food crops when exposed to elevated carbon dioxide, high temperature, drought, and humidity. These changes, in addition to affecting the quantity of indispensable or essential amino acids (IAA), also impact their bioavailability. Therefore, it is important to assess consequences of climate change on grain protein quality. An important tool to measure grain protein quality, is measuring its digestibility at the level of the ileum and its IAA concentration, linked to a metric called the Digestible IAA Score (DIAAS). A minimally invasive technique called the dual isotope tracer technique, which measures IAA digestibility after simultaneous administration of two different intrinsically labelled protein sources, one a test protein ([2]H/[15]N) and one a reference protein ([13]C) of predetermined digestibility, has been used in evaluation of grain protein IAA digestibility, and promises more in the evaluation of changes based on climate. This review discusses climate induced changes to grain protein quality through the prism of IAA digestibility, using the dual isotope tracer technique.}, }
@article {pmid39256338, year = {2024}, author = {Al-Ghamdi, MA and Helmi, N and Moselhy, SS}, title = {Cross-sectional study of the association of respiratory diseases health risk with environmental pollutants and climate change in Saudi Arabia.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39256338}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Saudi Arabia is known for its dry climate. This arid climate of the region makes its ecosystems highly susceptible, with limited water resources and vulnerable agricultural fields. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend the public's awareness and perceptions of environmental issues and climate change that have an impact on their health and immune system. This study employed a cross-sectional survey to examine the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) and related health impact of environmental pollutants and climate change in Saudi Arabia. The participants were chosen randomly from various regions across the kingdom. In this study, a total of 437 respondents were selected using convenience sampling (80.78% female and 19.22% male). Participants have fair knowledge on immunological and health effect of environmental pollution and climate change (94.3% and 87.5%, respectively). Participants are well aware of influence of environmental pollutants and climate change on spread of infectious diseases 51-94%. Significant correlation exists between participants of private sector in attitude domain of KAP (P = 0.003, χ[2] = 5.139). Significant correlation exists between participants of private sector in attitude domain of KAP (P = 0.003, χ[2] = 5.139. Participants are well aware of influence of environmental pollutants and climate change on spread of infectious diseases (51-94%). In conclusion, the health mission in Saudi Arabia has integrated order to manage the diseases that are related to climate change. It is crucial to enhance the knowledge and skills of general public regarding climate change and its impact on health.}, }
@article {pmid39256083, year = {2024}, author = {Ai, Z and Zhao, X and Boulange, J and Li, F and Mahmood, R and Zhang, Q and Yang, Y and Xia, J}, title = {How will climate change affect the sources of global irrigation water withdrawal?.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2024.08.032}, pmid = {39256083}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid39252030, year = {2024}, author = {Moraca, S and Indinnimeo, L and De Nuntiis, P}, title = {Risk perceptions of Italian paediatricians for the impact of climate change on children's health.}, journal = {Italian journal of pediatrics}, volume = {50}, number = {1}, pages = {170}, pmid = {39252030}, issn = {1824-7288}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Italy ; *Pediatricians/psychology ; *Child Health ; Male ; Female ; Child ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; Adult ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Risk Assessment ; Middle Aged ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUNDS: This study delves into the risk perceptions of Italian pediatricians concerning climate change's impact on children's health. Given children's heightened vulnerability to climate-related health risks, comprehending these perceptions is crucial. A review of pertinent literature establishes the framework, emphasizing six key factors influencing children's susceptibility to climate-related health hazards.<br><br>METHODS: Methodologically, the study utilized a survey tool developed collaboratively with the Italian Society of Pediatrics (SIP), garnering responses from a representative sample of Italian pediatricians.<br><br>RESULTS: Findings indicate a high level of awareness among respondents regarding climate change and its health implications, with a majority attributing it primarily to human activity. Pediatricians recognize various current and anticipated health impacts of climate change, notably concerning illnesses linked to outdoor air quality. Despite acknowledging their role in addressing climate-related health concerns, respondents also cite barriers to engagement, including time constraints and knowledge gaps. However, they express interest in resources like professional training and policy statements to bolster their capacity for effective communication and advocacy.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Comparisons with prior studies highlight the consistency of findings across diverse contexts and underscore the significance of integrating climate and environmental health education into medical training. Overall, this study sheds light on pediatricians' perspectives in tackling the convergence of climate change and children's health, pinpointing avenues for enhancing their involvement in climate advocacy and mitigation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid39250970, year = {2024}, author = {Jakubska-Busse, A and Wysocki, A and Domagała, PJ and Brudzińska-Kosior, A and Sporek, M and Kosior, G}, title = {Expanding the boundaries in the face of global warming: A lesson from genetic and ecological niche studies of Centaurium erythraea in Europe.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {953}, number = {}, pages = {176134}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176134}, pmid = {39250970}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change affects plant species, especially those with restricted ecology and distribution. Centaurium erythraea is a flowering plant species in the Gentianaceae family, native to Europe, with its centre of diversity in the Mediterranean and western Asia. Of the 11 infraspecific taxa distinct from C. erythraea, only two are common in Europe: C. erythraea subsp. erythraea (widespread nominal subspecies) and C. erythraea subsp. majus (mainly distributed in the western Mediterranean region). Freshly collected samples of 36 plants from 11 localities across Lower Silesia (Central Europe) were utilised for taxonomic and genetic analysis. The barcode sequences of chloroplast DNA region matK were used for molecular analysis. Data deposited in GenBank was also used. Five haplotypes were identified among the analysed specimens. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques were applied to predict the current and future (short- and long-term projections) potential distribution of C. erythraea subsp. majus and to identify the most influential climatic factors. Despite the typical Mediterranean distribution, the presence of C. erythraea subsp. majus outside its natural range in SW Poland has been confirmed by morphological and genetic studies. The mean monthly precipitation of the wettest quarter and the mean daily temperatures of the warmest quarter were identified as the key climatic factors. Short-term scenarios suggest that C. erythraea subsp. majus will maintain most of its current suitable habitats and potentially expand into the lowlands of Central Europe. However, long-term projections indicate a potential reduction in its currently suitable areas, especially in the southern parts of its range, with a possible expansion into north-western Europe. The results of these studies provide clear evidence of the impact of ongoing climate change on species range changes. These findings suggest that climate change may create new opportunities for Mediterranean species to spread to new regions, using C. erythraea subsp. majus as an example.}, }
@article {pmid39250852, year = {2024}, author = {Bashir, MF and Sharif, A and Staniewski, MW and Ma, B and Zhao, W}, title = {Environmental taxes, energy transition and sustainable environmental technologies: A comparative OECD region climate change analysis.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {122304}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122304}, pmid = {39250852}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The integrated economic reforms in recent years have transformed human life, however, the subsequent rise in environmental challenges necessitates sustainable development goals to ensure net-zero transformation. Within the context of modern energy, economic, and environmental transformation, we deliberate how environmental taxes, energy transition, and sustainable environmental innovation impact climate change in 38 OECD economies. Our robust empirical investigation allows us to report that environmental taxation, sustainable environmental technology, and energy transition lower but GDP and trade openness exacerbate ecological challenges. We also divide the dataset in G7 and the rest of the OECD groups to document the varying impact of environmental policies within OECD economies. Our econometric analysis helps us report novel policy frameworks to solve climate challenges under the UN SDG agenda.}, }
@article {pmid39250718, year = {2024}, author = {Polo, G and Gamarra, J and Robayo-Sánchez, LN and Cortés-Vecino, JA and Ramírez-Hernández, A}, title = {Impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of ticks of public health significance in Colombia: Amblyomma ovale (Ixodida: Ixodidae), the Amblyomma maculatum (Ixodida: Ixodidae) complex and the Amblyomma cajennense (Ixodida: Ixodidae) complex.}, journal = {Journal of medical entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jme/tjae100}, pmid = {39250718}, issn = {1938-2928}, abstract = {Ticks of the Amblyomma maculatum (Ixodida Ixodidae) complex, the Amblyomma cajennense (Ixodida Ixodidae) complex and Amblyomma ovale (Ixodida Ixodidae) are known to transmit various Rickettsia species in Colombia, but their exact distribution is unknown. We built several models based on current climate and projected future climate changes using a maximum entropy approach. A total of 314 records of the A. cajennense complex (65.9%; n = 207), A. ovale (22.9%; n = 72), and the A. maculatum complex (11.1%; n = 35) were obtained. Amblyomma ovale has a current distribution in the Pacific, Caribbean and Andean regions and could be potentially found in the Amazon. Amblyomma maculatum has a current distribution in the Andean and could potentially be found in the Caribbean and Orinoco regions. Amblyomma mixtum can be found near the Caribbean Sea and in the Pacific region, and A. patinoi is likely to be found in the Andean region and the Caribbean. In 2070, it will be possible to find an expansion of A. ovale and A. maculatum and a decrease of A. mixtum and A. patinoi. The variables that best predict the distribution of these species are isothermality (small fluctuations in temperature) and annual precipitation. Amblyomma cajennense s.l and A. ovale, A. cajennese s.l and A. patinoi, as well as A. maculatum and A. patinoi, have an important environmental sympatry. Epidemiological and acarological surveillance is crucial to investigate rickettsiosis caused by R. parkeri in A. ovale regions, by R. rickettsii in A. patinoi and A. mixtum areas, and by R. parkeri s.s in A. maculatum regions.}, }
@article {pmid39249146, year = {2024}, author = {Kaur, R and Gupta, S and Tripathi, V and Bharadwaj, A}, title = {Unravelling the secrets of soil microbiome and climate change for sustainable agroecosystems.}, journal = {Folia microbiologica}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39249146}, issn = {1874-9356}, abstract = {The soil microbiota exhibits an important function in the ecosystem, and its response to climate change is of paramount importance for sustainable agroecosystems. The macronutrients, micronutrients, and additional constituents vital for the growth of plants are cycled biogeochemically under the regulation of the soil microbiome. Identifying and forecasting the effect of climate change on soil microbiomes and ecosystem services is the need of the hour to address one of the biggest global challenges of the present time. The impact of climate change on the structure and function of the soil microbiota is a major concern, explained by one or more sustainability factors around resilience, reluctance, and rework. However, the past research has revealed that microbial interventions have the potential to regenerate soils and improve crop resilience to climate change factors. The methods used therein include using soil microbes' innate capacity for carbon sequestration, rhizomediation, bio-fertilization, enzyme-mediated breakdown, phyto-stimulation, biocontrol of plant pathogens, antibiosis, inducing the antioxidative defense pathways, induced systemic resistance response (ISR), and releasing volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the host plant. Microbial phytohormones have a major role in altering root shape in response to exposure to drought, salt, severe temperatures, and heavy metal toxicity and also have an impact on the metabolism of endogenous growth regulators in plant tissue. However, shelf life due to the short lifespan and storage time of microbial formulations is still a major challenge, and efforts should be made to evaluate their effectiveness in crop growth based on climate change. This review focuses on the influence of climate change on soil physico-chemical status, climate change adaptation by the soil microbiome, and its future implications.}, }
@article {pmid39249123, year = {2024}, author = {Meliho, M and Orlando, CA and Dallahi, Y}, title = {Spatiotemporal modeling of the potential impact of climate change on shifts in bioclimatic zones in Morocco.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {10}, pages = {907}, pmid = {39249123}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Morocco ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Ecosystem ; Climate Models ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Forests ; }, abstract = {This study aims to contribute to the understanding of the impact of climate change on bioclimatic zones in Morocco, providing insights into potential shifts and emphasizing the need for adaptation measures to protect vulnerable species and ecosystems. To achieve this, we utilized eight general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate climate conditions under two representative concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for two future time points (2050 and 2070). The modeling of bioclimatic zone shifts was accomplished through the implementation of the random forest (RF) algorithm. Our findings indicate that the subhumid and humid areas are expected to experience the most significant shifts, particularly toward the semi-arid zone. Shifts from subhumid to semi-arid were the most pronounced, ranging from 17.91% (RCP8.5 in 2070) to 25.68% (RCP8.5 in 2050), while shifts from humid to semi-arid ranged from 10.16% (RCP4.5 in 2050) to 22.27% (RCP8.5 in 2070). The Saharan and arid zones are expected to be the least affected, with less than 1% and 11% of their original extent expected to change, respectively. Moreover, our results suggest that forest species such as Atlas cedar and oaks are among the most vulnerable to these shifts. Overall, this study highlights the inevitability of climate change's impact on Moroccan ecosystems and provides a basis for adaptation measures, especially considering the species adapted to the bioclimatic conditions that will dominate the respective affected regions.}, }
@article {pmid39248594, year = {2024}, author = {Mueller, K and Allstrom, H and Smith, DJ and Downes, E and Modly, LA}, title = {Climate change's implications for practice: Pharmacologic considerations of heat-related illness.}, journal = {The Nurse practitioner}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/01.NPR.0000000000000230}, pmid = {39248594}, issn = {1538-8662}, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest threat to global health. As climate change worsens, heat waves will be longer, more intense, and more frequent. Increased health risks from climate change and heat waves include heat-related illness (HRI). HRI increases ED visits, hospitalizations, and mortality. Healthcare providers should be aware of the impact of medications on risk for HRI. This article elucidates signs and symptoms, populations at risk, drugs and mechanisms that increase risk, and patient education to reduce risk.}, }
@article {pmid39247376, year = {2024}, author = {Dramani, JB and Ofori-Mensah, KA and Otchere, NO and Frimpong, PB and Adu-Poku, A and Kemausuor, F and Yazdanie, M}, title = {Estimating and forecasting suppressed electricity demand in Ghana under climate change, the informal economy and sector inefficiencies.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {16}, pages = {e36001}, pmid = {39247376}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Suppressed demand arises from inadequate energy access, resulting in unmet basic needs. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of the informal economy, rising temperatures, and electricity transmission losses on suppressed demand in Ghana from 2000 to 2020, using a quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) approach. The study forecasts suppressed demand using Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, offering insights for energy system planning. The results indicate that all the variables significantly affect suppressed demand in the mid-quantiles. Notably, transmission losses and growth of informal economy variables significantly impact suppressed demand within the 50th to 75th quantiles but have minimal impact before the 50th and after the 75th quantiles in the long run. Additionally, rising temperatures substantially increase suppressed demand by increasing electricity demand for cooling. All future scenarios project this growth trend will continue through 2050, albeit at varying rates. In the business-as-usual (BAU) case, suppressed demand is expected to steadily increase from 1782 MW in 2020 to 8636 MW in 2050. This trajectory aligns well with historical growth trends, which saw suppressed demand increase from 659 GWh to 1782 GWh between 2000 and 2020. SSP scenarios suggest that suppressed demand could grow substantially through 2050, driven by high losses and informal sector growth. Despite sustainable development narratives like SSP1, suppressed demand remains high without major grid and governance improvements. Comparing the results with past studies shows that our findings align with previous research but provide more nuanced insights by incorporating the effects of the informal economy and using advanced forecasting techniques. Practical policy implications include investing in green infrastructure, upgrading grid infrastructure, and formalising the informal economy to alleviate suppressed demand. These actions are critical for sustainable energy access and meeting future electricity needs effectively.}, }
@article {pmid39247288, year = {2024}, author = {Dendup, T and Tshering, D and Tobgay, S and Liu, F}, title = {Sources and pathways of spring flow and climate change effects in the Dungju Ri &amp; Yude Ri catchments, Bhutan Himalaya.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {16}, pages = {e36211}, pmid = {39247288}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Springs and streams are vital water sources for supporting the livelihood of Himalayan residents. Escalating climate change, population growth, and economic development strain the region's freshwater resources. A national survey reveals declining spring and stream flows in Bhutan, necessitating an improved understanding of their generation. Monthly grab water samples were collected during April 2022-January 2023 from main streams, springs and other source waters at various elevations at Yude Ri and Dungju Ri catchments, Bhutan Himalayas. Samples were analyzed for pH, specific conductance, and major ions and end-member mixing analysis in combination with diagnostic tools of mixing models was used to determine sources, relative contributions, and recharge dynamics of spring flows. The results indicated that direct precipitation dominated spring flows (0.59 ± 0.21), followed by shallow groundwater (0.31 ± 0.18), and soil subsurface water (0.10 ± 0.15). The contributions of spring flow components followed an elevation gradient, with higher and lower fractions, respectively, of direct precipitation and shallow groundwater at higher elevations, e.g., 0.90 ± 0.1 to 0.13 ± 0.08 for direct precipitation and 0.03 ± 0.03 to 0.37 ± 0.19 for shallow groundwater from 3266 m to 1558 m. Spring flows primarily relied on precipitation (∼70 % from both direct precipitation and soil water), making them very sensitive to changes in precipitation. Significant contributions of shallow groundwater also indicated the vulnerability of spring flows to decreased snowfall relative to rainfall and the earlier onset of snowmelt, particularly for those located in the snow-rain transition zone (∼2500 m). Our results suggest high vulnerability of spring flows to the climate change in the Himalayas.}, }
@article {pmid39247090, year = {2024}, author = {Luo, Y and Qin, W and Yan, Y and Yin, K and Zang, R and Du, FK}, title = {Climate change vulnerability and conservation strategies for tertiary relict tree species: Insights from landscape genomics of Taxus cuspidata.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {17}, number = {9}, pages = {e13686}, pmid = {39247090}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {The unprecedented habitat fragmentation or loss has threatened the existence of many species. Therefore, it is essential to understand whether and how these species can pace with the environmental changes. Recent advantages in landscape genomics enabled us to identify molecular signatures of adaptation and predict how populations will respond to changing environments, providing new insights into the conservation of species. Here, we investigated the pattern of neutral and putative adaptive genetic variation and its response to changing environments in a tertiary relict tree species, Taxus cuspidata Sieb. et Zucc, which is distributed in northeast China and adjacent regions. We investigated the pattern of genetic diversity and differentiation using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) and seven nuclear microsatellites (nSSRs) datasets. We further explored the endangered mechanism, predicted its vulnerability in the future, and provided guidelines for the conservation and management of this species. RAD-seq identified 16,087 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in natural populations. Both the SNPs and nSSRs datasets showed high levels of genetic diversity and low genetic differentiation in T. cuspidata. Outlier detection by F ST outlier analysis and genotype-environment associations (GEAs) revealed 598 outlier SNPs as putative adaptive SNPs. Linear redundancy analysis (RDA) and nonlinear gradient forest (GF) showed that the contribution of climate to genetic variation was greater than that of geography, and precipitation played an important role in putative adaptive genetic variation. Furthermore, the genetic offset and risk of non-adaptedness (RONA) suggested that the species at the northeast edge may be more vulnerable in the future. These results suggest that although the species has maintained high current genetic diversity in the face of recent habitat loss and fragmentation, future climate change is likely to threaten the survival of the species. Temperature (Bio03) and precipitation (Prec05) variables can be potentially used as predictors of response of T. cuspidata under future climate. Together, this study provides a theoretical framework for conservation and management strategies for wildlife species in the context of future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39246679, year = {2024}, author = {Malhi, JK and McEvoy, JW and Blumenthal, RS and Jacobsen, AP}, title = {Climate change and cardiovascular health: Recent updates and actions for healthcare.}, journal = {American heart journal plus : cardiology research and practice}, volume = {45}, number = {}, pages = {100443}, pmid = {39246679}, issn = {2666-6022}, abstract = {Climate change is a public health crisis predominantly due to fossil fuel combustion, that challenges planetary and human health. Considerable evidence exists to demonstrate the impact climate change has on cardiovascular disease primarily through air pollution, and non-optimal temperature. Conversely, healthcare systems themselves contribute substantially to climate change. Many clinicians personally report a sense of responsibility to reduce the detrimental impact of parts of our healthcare system on the environment. Roadmaps exist to guide decarbonization and reduce pollution in the healthcare sector. The first step in minimizing the climate impact of the provision of cardiovascular care is to determine the carbon footprint of highly resource dependent sectors such as critical care cardiology as well as the cardiac catheterization and electrophysiology laboratories. This should be followed by sustainable changes to address healthcare waste and energy use. Engagement from healthcare leadership, governmental organizations and major cardiac societies will be necessary to impact meaningful change.}, }
@article {pmid39246258, year = {2024}, author = {Steiert, O}, title = {Declaring crisis? Temporal constructions of climate change on Wikipedia.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {9636625241268890}, doi = {10.1177/09636625241268890}, pmid = {39246258}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {On Wikipedia, editors daily negotiate edits to an entry that summarizes climate change to a global audience. The outcome of their efforts is an encyclopedic entry with a conspicuous lack of temporal clarity that circumvents the question of whether climate change is an immediate crisis or merely a potential future phenomenon. This qualitative discourse analysis of editors' debates around climate change on Wikipedia argues that their hesitancy to "declare crisis" is not a conscious editorial choice as much as an outcome of a friction between the folk philosophy of science Wikipedia is built upon, editors' own sense of urgency, and their anticipations about audience uptake of their writing. This friction shapes a group style that fosters temporal ambiguity. Hence, the findings suggest that in the Wikipedia entry on climate change, platform affordances and contestation of expertise foreclose a declaration of climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid39245377, year = {2024}, author = {Yin, Y and Yang, K and Gao, M and Wei, J and Zhong, X and Jiang, K and Gao, J and Cai, Y}, title = {Declined nutrients stability shaped by water residence times in lakes and reservoirs under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {176098}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176098}, pmid = {39245377}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water quality stability in lakes and reservoirs is essential for drinking water safety and ecosystem health, especially given the frequent occurrence of extreme climate events. However, the relationship between water quality stability and water residence time (WRT) has not been well elucidated. In this study, we explored the relationship based on nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations data in 11 lakes and 49 reservoirs in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin from 2010 to 2022. Additionally, we examined the effects of hydrometeorological characteristics, the geomorphology of water bodies and catchments, and land use on the WRT, establishing a link between climate change and the stability of N and P in these water bodies. The results showed that a significant correlation between the stability of N and P in lakes and reservoirs and their WRT. The longer WRT tends to coincide with decreased stability and higher nutrient concentrations. Hydrometeorological factors are the primary factors on the WRT, with precipitation exerting the greatest effect, particularly under extreme drought. In recent years, extreme climatic events have intensified the fluctuations of WRT, resulting in a renewed increase in N and P concentrations and deterioration in stability. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating meteorological and hydrological factors alongside reinforcing ecological restoration into lake and reservoir management strategies, and providing a scientific basis for future efforts aimed at enhancing lake and reservoir water quality stability and safeguarding aquatic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid39245297, year = {2024}, author = {Volpe, S and Mastroleo, F and Vincini, MG and Zaffaroni, M and Porazzi, A and Damiani, E and Marvaso, G and Jereczek-Fossa, BA}, title = {Facing the climate change: is radiotherapy as green as we would like? A systematic review.}, journal = {Critical reviews in oncology/hematology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {104500}, doi = {10.1016/j.critrevonc.2024.104500}, pmid = {39245297}, issn = {1879-0461}, abstract = {PURPOSE: To focus on the ecological footprint of radiotherapy (RT), on opportunities for sustainable practices, on future research directions.<br><br>METHODS: Different databases were interrogated using the following terms: Carbon Footprint, Sustainab*, Carbon Dioxide, Radiotherapy, and relative synonyms.<br><br>RESULTS: 931 records were retrieved; 15 reports were included in the review. Eight main thematic areas have been identified. Nine research works analyzed the environmental impact of photon-based external beam RT. Particle therapy was the subject of one work. Other thematic areas were brachytherapy, intra-operative RT, telemedicine, travel-related issues, and the impact of COVID-19.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This review demonstrates the strong interest in identifying novel strategies for a more environmentally friendly RT and serves as a clarion call to unveil the environmental impact of carbon footprints entwined with radiation therapy. Future research should address current gaps to guide the transition towards greener practices, reducing the environmental footprint and maintaining high-quality care.}, }
@article {pmid39243786, year = {2024}, author = {Jacobsen, KH and Waggett, CE and Berenbaum, P and Bayles, BR and Carlson, GL and English, R and Faerron Guzmán, CA and Gartin, ML and Grant, L and Henshaw, TL and Iannotti, LL and Landrigan, PJ and Lansbury, N and Li, H and Lichtveld, MY and McWhorter, KL and Rettig, JE and Sorensen, CJ and Wetzel, EJ and Whitehead, DM and Winch, PJ and Martin, K}, title = {Planetary health learning objectives: foundational knowledge for global health education in an era of climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {e706-e713}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00167-0}, pmid = {39243786}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health/education ; Humans ; Health Education ; }, abstract = {Planetary health is an emerging field that emphasises that humans depend on a healthy Earth for survival and, conversely, that the sustainability of Earth systems is dependent on human behaviours. In response to member demands for resources to support teaching and learning related to planetary health, the Consortium of Universities for Global Health (CUGH) convened a working group to develop a set of planetary health learning objectives (PHLOs) that would complement the existing ten CUGH global health learning objectives. The eight PHLOs feature Earth system changes, planetary boundaries, and climate change science; ecological systems and One Health; human health outcomes; risk assessment, vulnerability, and resilience; policy, governance, and laws (including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement); roles and responsibilities of governments, businesses, civil society organisations, other institutions, communities, and individuals for mitigation, adaptation, conservation, restoration, and sustainability; environmental ethics, human rights, and climate justice; and environmental literacy and communication. Educators who use the PHLOs as a foundation for teaching, curriculum design, and programme development related to the health-environment nexus will equip learners with a knowledge of planetary health science, interventions, and communication that is essential for future global health professionals.}, }
@article {pmid39243166, year = {2024}, author = {Dias, PB and Horn Kunz, S and Pezzopane, JEM and Xavier, TMT and Zorzanelli, JPF and Toledo, JV and Gomes, LP and Gorsani, RG}, title = {Water restriction alters seed bank traits and ecology in Atlantic Forest seasonal forests under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {9}, pages = {e17494}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17494}, pmid = {39243166}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior-Brazil (CAPES)/ ; //Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa e Inova&#xe7;&#xe3;o do Esp&#xed;rito Santo (FAPES)/ ; //National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq, Programa de Capacita&#xe7;&#xe3;o Institucional-PCI/INMA) of the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Seasons ; *Seed Bank ; *Water/analysis ; Germination ; Brazil ; Seeds/growth &amp; development ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The soil seed bank (SSB) is one of the key mechanisms that ensure the perpetuity of forests, but how will it behave in the scenarios projected for the future climate? Faced with this main question, still little explored in seasonal tropical forests, this study evaluated the germination, ecological attributes, and functional traits of the SSB in a seasonal forest in the Atlantic Forest. Forty-eight composite samples of the SSB were collected from 12 plots, distributed across four treatments, each with 12 replicates. The samples were placed in two climate-controlled greenhouses, establishing two environments of controlled climatic conditions, both with two levels of water, as follows: Cur: current scenario without water restriction; Cur_WR: current scenario with water restriction; RCP8.5: future scenario without water restriction; RCP8.5_WR: future scenario with water restriction. The germinants were identified, and their ecological attributes and functional traits were obtained. Leaf area and biomass production, differences in abundance, richness, and diversity were evaluated, along with analysis of variance to assess the interaction between water levels and scenarios. All ecological attributes and functional traits evaluated drastically decreased in the future projection with water restriction, with this restriction being the main component influencing this response. The increased temperature in the future scenario significantly raised water consumption compared to the current scenario. However, persistent water restrictions in the future could undermine the resilience of seasonal forests, hindering seed germination in the soil. Richness and abundance were also adversely affected by water scarcity in the future scenario, revealing a low tolerance to the projected prolonged drought. These changes found in the results could alter the overall structure of seasonal forests in the future, as well as result in the loss of the regeneration potential of the SSB due to decreased seed viability and increased seedling mortality.}, }
@article {pmid39242953, year = {2024}, author = {Soliman, A}, title = {How to change people's minds about climate change: what the science says.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39242953}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39242938, year = {2024}, author = {Ryan, PH and Newman, N and Yolton, K and Meinzen-Derr, J and Glauser, T and Cheng, TL}, title = {A call for solutions-oriented research and policy to protect children from the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39242938}, issn = {1530-0447}, }
@article {pmid39242306, year = {2024}, author = {Ben Salem, D and Soyer, P and Vernhet Kovaczick, H}, title = {The effect of radiology on climate change: Can AI help us move toward a green future?.}, journal = {Diagnostic and interventional imaging}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.diii.2024.07.011}, pmid = {39242306}, issn = {2211-5684}, }
@article {pmid39242044, year = {2024}, author = {Hwang, HA and Kim, A and Lee, W and Yim, HW and Bae, S}, title = {Association between increase in temperature due to climate change and depressive symptoms in Korea.}, journal = {Journal of affective disorders}, volume = {367}, number = {}, pages = {479-485}, doi = {10.1016/j.jad.2024.08.187}, pmid = {39242044}, issn = {1573-2517}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Studies on the long-term effects of rising temperature by climate change on mental health are limited. This study investigates the influence of temperature rise on the prevalence rate of depressive symptoms according to district type and age group in Korea.<br><br>DESIGN: This cross-sectional study included 219,187 Korea Community Health Survey 2021 participants. Yearly average temperature and yearly average temperature difference are the main exposures of this study. Temperature difference was calculated by subtracting the historical average temperature in 1961-1990 (climate normal) from the yearly average temperature. The main outcomes are moderate depressive symptoms measured by Patient Health Questionnaire-9. Multilevel analyses were conducted to estimate the association between temperature factors and depressive symptoms.<br><br>RESULTS: 7491 (3.4&#xa0;%) participants reported moderate depressive symptoms, and 99,653 (69.9&#xa0;%) participants lived in an urban district. The odds of depressive symptoms increased with 1&#xa0;&#xb0;C increase in temperature difference for all participants, adult participants aged 19-40, and participants who lived in same metropolitan area for 20&#xa0;years or more (aOR&#xa0;=&#xa0;1.13, CI: 1.04-1.24, aOR&#xa0;=&#xa0;1.14, CI: 1.02-1.24, and aOR&#xa0;=&#xa0;1.15 CI: 1.04-1.27). The association between temperature difference and depressive symptoms was consistent among urban districts participants.<br><br>LIMITATIONS: Due to the study's cross-sectional nature, the temporal association between regional and individual factors and depressive symptoms could not be assessed. Limited number of weather stations, especially among less populated in-land areas, may limit the accuracy of this study.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The increase in temperature compared with historical average is associated with increased likelihood of depressive symptoms, especially for the adults aged 19-40&#xa0;years old. More study on the long-term impact of climate change on mental health is needed to determine effective responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39241587, year = {2024}, author = {Pimenta, A and Kamruzzaman, LM}, title = {Assessing the comprehensiveness and vertical coherence of climate change action plans: The case of Australia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {369}, number = {}, pages = {122419}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122419}, pmid = {39241587}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change is an undeniable reality, prompting governments worldwide to devise strategies to avoid or reduce its adverse impacts. Ensuring the effectiveness of these strategies is crucial; they must be both comprehensive and coherent to minimize trade-offs. While substantial research has focused on assessing climate policy coherence within a single level of government (horizontal coherence), there is a relative scarcity of studies examining coherence between different levels of government (vertical coherence). This study adapts an evaluation framework from the literature and transforms it into two distinct assessment frameworks: one for evaluating the comprehensiveness and the other for assessing the vertical coherence of Climate Change Action Plans (CCAPs) from three levels of government (local, state, and national) in Australia. Adaptation and mitigation plans were assessed separately for five local government areas in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, and their respective states: New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia. National government plans received higher average comprehensive scores (83%) than state (75%) and local (71%) CCAPs. High coherence was observed between national and state levels, with significant variations between state and local levels. Sydney-New South Wales exhibited the highest coherence (90%), while Perth-Western Australia scored the lowest (35%). Key issues identified include a lack of exclusive climate change funding body and an inadequate assessment of vulnerability profiles in various plans. These findings provide insights for designing more comprehensive and integrated policy actions across multiple government levels. The refined frameworks can be applied to test the comprehensiveness and coherence of CCAPs in other contexts at various scales.}, }
@article {pmid39242770, year = {2022}, author = {Cancellario, T and Miranda, R and Baquero, E and Fontaneto, D and Martínez, A and Mammola, S}, title = {Climate change will redefine taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity of Odonata in space and time.}, journal = {npj biodiversity}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, pmid = {39242770}, issn = {2731-4243}, abstract = {Climate change is rearranging the mosaic of biodiversity worldwide. These broad-scale species re-distributions affect the structure and composition of communities with a ripple effect on multiple biodiversity facets. Using European Odonata, we asked: i) how climate change will redefine taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity at European scales; ii) which traits will mediate species' response to global change; iii) whether this response will be phylogenetically conserved. Using stacked species distribution models, we forecast widespread latitudinal and altitudinal rearrangements in Odonata community composition determining broad turnovers in traits and evolutionary lineages. According to our phylogenetic regression models, only body size and flight period can be partly correlated with observed range shifts. In considering all primary facets of biodiversity, our results support the design of inclusive conservation strategies able to account for the diversity of species, the ecosystem services they provide, and the phylogenetic heritage they carry in a target ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid39241378, year = {2024}, author = {Kan, C and Wang, F and Xiang, T and Fan, Y and Xu, W and Liu, L and Yang, S and Cao, W}, title = {Wastewater treatment plant effluents increase the global warming potential in a subtropical urbanized river.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {266}, number = {}, pages = {122349}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2024.122349}, pmid = {39241378}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {Rivers play a pivotal role in global carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) biogeochemical cycles. Urbanized rivers are significant hotspots of greenhouse gases (GHGs, N2O, CO2 and CH4) emissions. This study examined the GHGs distributions in the Guanxun River, an effluents-receiving subtropical urbanized river, as well as the key environmental factors and processes affecting the pattern and emission characteristics of GHGs. Dissolved N2O, CO2, and CH4 concentrations reached 228.0 nmol L[-1], 0.44 mmol L[-1], and 5.2 μmol L[-1] during the wet period, and 929.8 nmol L[-1], 0.7 mmol L[-1], and 4.6 μmol L[-1] during the dry period, respectively. Effluents inputs increased C and N loadings, reduced C/N ratios, and promoted further methanogenesis and N2O production dominated by incomplete denitrification after the outfall. Increased urbanization in the far downstream, high hydraulic residence time, low DO and high organic C environment promoted methanogenesis. The strong CH4 oxidation and methanogenic reactions inhibited by the effluents combined to suppress CH4 emissions in downstream near the outfall, and the process also contributed to CO2 production. The carbon fixation downstream from the outfall were inhibited by effluents. Ultimately, it promoted CO2 emissions downstream from the outfall. The continuous C, N, and chlorine inputs maintained the high saturation and production potential of GHGs, and altered microbial community structure and functional genes abundance. Ultimately, the global warming potential downstream increased by 186 % and 84 % during wet and dry periods on the 20-year scale, and increased by 91 % and 49 % during wet and dry periods on the 100-year scale, respectively, compared with upstream from the outfall. In urbanized rivers with sufficient C and N source supply from WWTP effluents, the large effluent equivalently transformed the natural water within the channel into a subsequent "reactor". Furthermore, the IPCC recommended EF5r values appear to underestimate the N2O emission potential of urbanized rivers with high pollution loading that receiving WWTP effluents. The findings of this study might aid the development of effective strategies for mitigating global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39240798, year = {2024}, author = {Tang, H and Fang, J and Yuan, J}, title = {Climate change and Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) leading to spatial shifts in net primary productivity in Anhui Province, China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {e0307516}, pmid = {39240798}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Carbon Cycle ; Forests ; }, abstract = {As an important part of terrestrial carbon cycle research, net primary productivity is an important parameter to evaluate the quality of terrestrial ecosystem and plays an important role in the analysis of global climate change and carbon balance. Anhui Province is in the Yangtze River Delta region in eastern China. Based on the theoretical basis of CASA model, this paper uses MODIS NDVI, vegetation type data, meteorological data, and LUCC to estimate the NPP of Anhui Province during 2001-2020 and analyzes its spatial-temporal pattern. The results showed that the average NPP in Anhui province was 508.95 gC· (m2 ·a) -1, and the spatial heterogeneity of NPP was strong, and the high value areas were mainly distributed in the Jiangnan Mountains and Dabie Mountains. NPP increased in most areas of Anhui Province, but decreased significantly in 17.60% of the area, mainly in the central area affected by urban and rural expansion and the transformation of the Yangtze River. The dynamic change of NPP in Anhui province is the result of climate change and land use change. Meteorological data are positively correlated with NPP. Among them, the correlation between temperature and solar radiation is higher, and the correlation between NPP and precipitation is the lowest among the three. The NPP of all land cover types was more affected by temperature than precipitation, especially forest land and grassland. The decrease of cultivated land and the increase of Artificial Surfaces (AS) may have contributed to the decrease of NPP in Anhui Province. Human activities have weakened the increase in NPP caused by climate change. In conclusion, this study refined the drivers of spatial heterogeneity of NPP changes in Anhui province, which is conducive to rational planning of terrestrial ecosystems and carbon balance measures.}, }
@article {pmid39239832, year = {2024}, author = {Stokely, TD}, title = {The devil is in the details: Experiment reveals how a forest-dwelling scavenger, and their excrement, may buffer ecosystem processes from climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {9}, pages = {e17499}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17499}, pmid = {39239832}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Feces/chemistry ; }, abstract = {This article is an Invited Commentary on Stephenson et al. (2024). This commentary attempts to provide broader context of the research within the body of literature on species loss and ecosystem functioning and highlights its relevance to conservation and global change.}, }
@article {pmid39239728, year = {2024}, author = {Cunningham, N and Jenkins, C and Williams, S and Garner, J and Eggen, B and Douglas, A and Potter, T and Wilson, A and Leonardi, G and Larkin, L and Hopkins, S}, title = {An outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157:H7 associated with contaminated lettuce and the cascading risks from climate change, the United Kingdom, August to September 2022.}, journal = {Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin}, volume = {29}, number = {36}, pages = {}, pmid = {39239728}, issn = {1560-7917}, mesh = {*Lactuca/microbiology ; Humans ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Escherichia coli Infections/epidemiology/microbiology/transmission ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; *Escherichia coli O157/isolation &amp; purification/genetics ; *Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology/microbiology ; *Climate Change ; *Food Microbiology ; Whole Genome Sequencing ; Shiga-Toxigenic Escherichia coli/isolation &amp; purification/genetics ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Female ; Male ; Food Contamination/analysis ; Aged ; Animals ; Adolescent ; Child ; }, abstract = {Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 is a food-borne pathogen which causes gastrointestinal illness in humans. Ruminants are considered the main reservoir of infection, and STEC exceedance has been associated with heavy rainfall. In September 2022, a large outbreak of STEC O157:H7 was identified in the United Kingdom (UK). A national-level investigation was undertaken to identify the source of the outbreak and inform risk mitigation strategies. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) was used to identify outbreak cases. Overall, 259 cases with illness onset dates between 5 August and 12 October 2022, were confirmed across the UK. Epidemiological investigations supported a UK grown, nationally distributed, short shelf-life food item as the source of the outbreak. Analytical epidemiology and food chain analysis suggested lettuce as the likely vehicle of infection. Food supply chain tracing identified Grower X as the likely implicated producer. Independent of the food chain investigations, a novel geospatial analysis triangulating meteorological, flood risk, animal density and land use data was developed, also identifying Grower X as the likely source. Novel geospatial analysis and One Health approaches are potential tools for upstream data analysis to predict and prevent contamination events before they occur and to support evidence generation in outbreak investigations.}, }
@article {pmid39239722, year = {2024}, author = {Nelson, GC and Cheung, WWL and Bezner Kerr, R and Franke, J and Meza, F and Oyinlola, MA and Thornton, P and Zabel, F}, title = {Adaptation to climate change and limits in food production systems: Physics, the chemistry of biology, and human behavior.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {9}, pages = {e17489}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17489}, pmid = {39239722}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Agriculture ; Food Supply ; Adaptation, Physiological ; }, }
@article {pmid39239688, year = {2024}, author = {Pfenninger, M and Reuss, F and KIebler, A and Schönnenbeck, P and Caliendo, C and Gerber, S and Cocchiararo, B and Reuter, S and Blüthgen, N and Mody, K and Mishra, B and Bálint, M and Thines, M and Feldmeyer, B}, title = {Correction: Genomic basis for drought resistance in European beech forests threatened by climate change.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.7554/eLife.102872}, pmid = {39239688}, issn = {2050-084X}, }
@article {pmid39239214, year = {2023}, author = {Fogarty, AE and Godambe, M and Duszynski, B and McCormick, ZL and Steensma, J and Decker, G}, title = {Interventional pain physician beliefs on climate change: A Spine Intervention Society (SIS) survey.}, journal = {Interventional pain medicine}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {100287}, pmid = {39239214}, issn = {2772-5944}, abstract = {SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Although evaluated within other specialties, physicians' beliefs towards climate change and human health have not been described within Interventional Pain Medicine (IPM). Understanding belief systems is essential for developing solutions to build sustainable practices.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Assess beliefs toward climate change within the field of IPM.<br><br>METHODS: Spine Intervention Society (SIS) members were invited to participate in an anonymous RedCap survey by email, social media, and advertisement at the 2022 SIS Annual Meeting. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and associations were estimated using Chi-Square (significance: p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05).<br><br>RESULTS: One hundred and seventy-five participants responded to the survey. Participants most often identified as white (66&#xa0;%; 95&#xa0;% CI 57-73&#xa0;%), male (78&#xa0;%; 95&#xa0;% CI 71-84&#xa0;%), and from the United States (US) (76&#xa0;%; CI 95&#xa0;% 58-72&#xa0;%), with 87&#xa0;% (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;123/141; 95&#xa0;% CI 82-93&#xa0;%) agreeing that climate change is happening (agree or strongly agree). While 78&#xa0;% (95&#xa0;% CI 80-92&#xa0;%) agree that climate change and sustainability are important to them, only 47&#xa0;% (95&#xa0;% CI 34-51&#xa0;%) agree that these are important to their patients. Those beliefs did not differ by age or geographical area (p&#xa0;>&#xa0;0.05). However, physicians in non-leadership positions are more likely to disagree or strongly disagree that climate change is important to them (&#x3c7;[2](2)&#xa0;=&#xa0;15.98; p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05), to their patients (&#x3c7;[2](2)&#xa0;=&#xa0;17.21; p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05), or that societies should advocate for climate policies (&#x3c7;[2](2)&#xa0;=&#xa0;9.19; p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05). Non-US physicians were more likely to believe that physicians have responsibilities to bring awareness to the health effects of climate change (&#x3c7;[2](2)&#xa0;=&#xa0;6.58; p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05) and to agree that climate change is important to their patients (&#x3c7;[2](2)&#xa0;=&#xa0;10.50; p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05).<br><br>DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Understanding specialty-specific physician views on climate change is essential for developing solutions to reduce the carbon footprint of medical practice and improve sustainability. The majority of SIS members believe that climate change is happening. Non-US physicians and physician-leaders are more likely to believe that climate change impacts their patients and that societies should advocate for climate policies.}, }
@article {pmid39238784, year = {2024}, author = {Ornella, LA and Broccanello, C and Balzarini, M}, title = {Editorial: Plant adaptation to climate change using genomic selection and high-throughput technologies.}, journal = {Frontiers in genetics}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1471995}, pmid = {39238784}, issn = {1664-8021}, }
@article {pmid39238356, year = {2024}, author = {Zhu, Z and Deng, T and Pan, X}, title = {Global climate change: The dangers of heatwaves for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients cannot be ignored.}, journal = {Journal of global health}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {03032}, pmid = {39238356}, issn = {2047-2986}, mesh = {Humans ; *Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Global Health ; }, }
@article {pmid39236604, year = {2024}, author = {Baur, DG and Karlsen, JR}, title = {Do crypto investors care about energy use and climate change? Evidence from Ethereum's transition to proof-of-stake.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {369}, number = {}, pages = {122299}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122299}, pmid = {39236604}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This paper analyses the transition of Ethereum (ETH) from the energy-intensive Proof-of-Work (PoW) to the less energy-intensive Proof-of-Stake (PoS). We analyze returns, volatility, return correlations and volume of ETH, ETC and Bitcoin for all events in the lead-up to the actual change from PoW to PoS also labelled "the merge." The analysis suggests that some investors value the less energy-intensive mining mechanism and invest in ETH. However, since the overall effect is weak, we conclude that despite all the media attention and the stated concerns about the high energy-intensity of Bitcoin and PoW, most investors do not react to the change with an increased investment in Ethereum.}, }
@article {pmid39236181, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, Y and Tilman, D and Jin, Z and Smith, P and Barrett, CB and Zhu, YG and Burney, J and D'Odorico, P and Fantke, P and Fargione, J and Finlay, JC and Rulli, MC and Sloat, L and Jan van Groenigen, K and West, PC and Ziska, L and Michalak, AM and ,  and Lobell, DB and Clark, M and Colquhoun, J and Garg, T and Garrett, KA and Geels, C and Hernandez, RR and Herrero, M and Hutchison, WD and Jain, M and Jungers, JM and Liu, B and Mueller, ND and Ortiz-Bobea, A and Schewe, J and Song, J and Verheyen, J and Vitousek, P and Wada, Y and Xia, L and Zhang, X and Zhuang, M}, title = {Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {385}, number = {6713}, pages = {eadn3747}, doi = {10.1126/science.adn3747}, pmid = {39236181}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Agriculture ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Environment ; Agrochemicals ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Agriculture's global environmental impacts are widely expected to continue expanding, driven by population and economic growth and dietary changes. This Review highlights climate change as an additional amplifier of agriculture's environmental impacts, by reducing agricultural productivity, reducing the efficacy of agrochemicals, increasing soil erosion, accelerating the growth and expanding the range of crop diseases and pests, and increasing land clearing. We identify multiple pathways through which climate change intensifies agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, creating a potentially powerful climate change-reinforcing feedback loop. The challenges raised by climate change underscore the urgent need to transition to sustainable, climate-resilient agricultural systems. This requires investments that both accelerate adoption of proven solutions that provide multiple benefits, and that discover and scale new beneficial processes and food products.}, }
@article {pmid39236015, year = {2024}, author = {Pollom, RA and Cheok, J and Pacoureau, N and Gledhill, KS and Kyne, PM and Ebert, DA and Jabado, RW and Herman, KB and Bennett, RH and da Silva, C and Fernando, S and Kuguru, B and Leslie, RW and McCord, ME and Samoilys, M and Winker, H and Fennessy, ST and Pollock, CM and Rigby, CL and Dulvy, NK}, title = {Overfishing and climate change elevate extinction risk of endemic sharks and rays in the southwest Indian Ocean hotspot.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {e0306813}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0306813}, pmid = {39236015}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Sharks/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; Indian Ocean ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Endangered Species ; *Skates, Fish ; Fisheries ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Here, we summarise the extinction risk of the sharks and rays endemic to coastal, shelf, and slope waters of the southwest Indian Ocean and adjacent waters (SWIO+, Namibia to Kenya, including SWIO islands). This region is a hotspot of endemic and evolutionarily distinct sharks and rays. Nearly one-fifth (n = 13 of 70, 18.6%) of endemic sharks and rays are threatened, of these: one is Critically Endangered, five are Endangered, and seven are Vulnerable. A further seven (10.0%) are Near Threatened, 33 (47.1%) are Least Concern, and 17 (24.3%) are Data Deficient. While the primary threat is overfishing, there are the first signs that climate change is contributing to elevated extinction risk through habitat reduction and inshore distributional shifts. By backcasting their status, few endemic species were threatened in 1980, but this changed soon after the emergence of targeted shark and ray fisheries. South Africa has the highest national conservation responsibility, followed by Mozambique and Madagascar. Yet, while fisheries management and enforcement have improved in South Africa over recent decades, substantial improvements are urgently needed elsewhere. To avoid extinction and ensure robust populations of the region's endemic sharks and rays and maintain ecosystem functionality, there is an urgent need for the strict protection of Critically Endangered and Endangered species and sustainable management of Vulnerable, Near Threatened, and Least Concern species, underpinned by species-level data collection and reduction of incidental catch.}, }
@article {pmid39235222, year = {2024}, author = {Requena-Ramírez, MD and Rodríguez-Suárez, C and Hornero-Méndez, D and Atienza, SG}, title = {Durum Wheat at Risk in a Climate Change Scenario: The Carotenoid Content is Affected by Short Heat Waves.}, journal = {Journal of agricultural and food chemistry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.jafc.4c05718}, pmid = {39235222}, issn = {1520-5118}, abstract = {Short heat waves (SHW), defined as periods of several consecutive days with high temperatures above the developmental optimum, will become more frequent due to climate change. The impact of SHW on yield and yield-related parameters has received considerable interest, but their effects on grain quality remain poorly understood. We employed a simulation approach to investigate the impact of SHW on durum wheat quality over a 7 day period, starting 1 week after anthesis. During the SHW treatment, carried out using portable polyethylene tents, the temperature in the treated plots increased by 10-15 °C during daily hours. The SHW treatment reduced the number of grains per spike, thousand kernel weight, and total carotenoid content in grains in stressed plants in comparison to control plants. However, no differences in the protein content or percentage of vitreous grains were observed. The behavior of individual carotenoids in response to SHW appears to differ, suggesting a differential change in the balance between β,ε- and β,β-branches of the carotenoid biosynthetic pathway as a consequence of SHW-induced stress. The present study highlights the importance of developing efficient breeding strategies for reduced sensitivities to heat stress. Such strategies should not only prioritize yield but also encompass grain quality.}, }
@article {pmid39235021, year = {2024}, author = {Guo, DX and Li, AX and Liu, EK and Wang, JL}, title = {[Spatiotemporal variations and attribution analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the Fenwei Plain under climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {1625-1634}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202406.022}, pmid = {39235021}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plant Transpiration ; China ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; *Ecosystem ; *Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is a crucial variable for estimating the ecological water demand of vegetation. Under climate change, the trends of ET0 change vary in different regions. The study of spatial and temporal variations in ET0 and attribution analysis at the regional scale is more conducive to the regional agricultural water management and ecological water demand estimation under the changing environment. We analyzed the change trend, spatial distribution and the contribution of meteorological factors to annual ET0 change of the Fenwei Plain during a historical period (1985-2015) and a future period (2030-2060) based on the latest climate data and high-precision grid data from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The results showed that the meteorological data from CMIP6 could be used for the prediction of ET0 after bias correction, and that the prediction accuracy of the multi-model ensemble approach (R[2] of 82.9%, RMSE of 14.9 mm) was higher than that of a single climate model. ET0 in the Fenwei Plain showed a significant decreasing trend in the historical period, but a non-significant increasing and significant increasing trend in the future period under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The vapor pressure deficit had the largest contribution to the ET0 change in both the historical and future periods, and was the primary meteorological factor affecting the ET0 change in the Fenwei Plain under the climate change. Solar radiation and wind speed were important meteorological factors affecting the ET0 change in the historical period, while temperature and wind speed were the important meteorological factors affecting the ET0 change in the future period. The meteorological factors that had great contribution to ET0 change were due to the larger multi-year relative change rates, rather than the high sensitivity of these meteorological factors to ET0. The ET0 of the plain under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios increased by 4.2% and 3.1% in the future period, respectively, compared with the historical period. The differences in the spatial distribution of the result were mainly from the eastern and western regions of the plain. Based on the high-precision spatial and temporal distribution of ET0, the spatial and temporal data could be used as a reference for the development of various adaptation for climate change in the Fenwei Plain.}, }
@article {pmid39235020, year = {2024}, author = {Li, XF and Wu, S and Zhao, F and Zhu, HX and Gong, LJ and Jiang, LX and Wang, P and Zhao, HY}, title = {[Characteristics of soybean climate potential productivity in frigid region and its response to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {1615-1624}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202406.024}, pmid = {39235020}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Glycine max/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; China ; Photosynthesis ; Biomass ; Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {A comprehensive understanding of the evolution of soybean climate potential productivity and its response to climate change in Heilongjiang Province can offer reference and basis for further tapping soybean production potential and realizing stable and high yield of soybean in the frigid region. Based on meteorological data from 80 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020, we estimated photosynthesis, light temperature, and climate potential productivity of soybean by the stepwise correction method, examined the spatiotemporal variations by spatial interpolation and statistical analysis methods, and analyzed the impact of changes in climate factors such as radiation, temperature, and precipitation on climate potential productivity. The results showed that during the study period, the average values of photosynthesis potential productivity (YQ), light-temperature potential productivity (YT), and climate potential productivity (YW) of soybean in Heilongjiang Province were 7533, 6444, and 3515 kg·hm[-2], respectively. The temporal changes of those variables showed significant increasing trends, with increases of 125.9, 182.9, and 116.1 kg·hm[-2]·(10 a)[-1], respectively. For the spatial distribution, YQ, YT, YW were characterized by high values in plains and lower in the mountains, and gradually decreased from southwest to northeast. Compared with that during 1961-1990, the high value zone of YW in period 1991-2020 expanded by 7.1%, and the low value zone decreased by 5.1%. YW showed a significant response to climate change. The potential temperature growth period was extended due to climate warming. The continuous increase in thermal resources, combined with relatively sufficient precipitation, effectively alleviated the negative impact of the decline in light resources on soybean production in Heilongjiang Province. The projected "warm and humid" climate would comprehensively boost climate potential productivity of soybean in Heilongjiang Province.}, }
@article {pmid39235009, year = {2024}, author = {Hu, R and Dong, LB}, title = {[Temporal and spatial variations of vegetation coverage in Heilongjiang Basin and its responses to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {1518-1524}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202406.027}, pmid = {39235009}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; China ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Rivers ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Mongolia ; Satellite Imagery ; }, abstract = {Exploring the temporal and spatial dynamics of vegetation coverage in the Heilongjiang Basin and its response to climate change can provide a theoretical basis and data support for integrated basin management for three countries (Mongolia, China and Russia) in the region. We used MOD13Q1 remote sensing data from Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform between 2000 and 2020 to process the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) through the maximum value composites method, and calculated the vegetation coverage (FVC) using the dimidiate pixel model. The Sen+MK trend analysis method was employed to monitor the dynamics of FVC, while the Pearson correlation coefficient was utilized to quantify the responses of FVC to climate change. The results showed that the overall FVC in the Heilongjiang Basin exhibited a slight decreasing trend during 2000-2020, with an annual rate of 0.1%. The FVC in Mongolia showed a fluctuating increase trend (0.13%), while slight decrease trends were observed for Russia (0.15%) and China (0.08%). The FVC predominantly slightly degraded and severely degraded, accounting for 34% and 17% of the area, respectively, while the significantly improved area only accounted for 9%. The impact of precipitation on FVC in the study area was significantly greater than that of temperature. The proportion of areas where precipitation and temperature had a significant impact on FVC was 8.2% and 2.2%, respectively. The correlation coefficient between precipitation and FVC was the highest in Mongolia (r=0.446, P<0.05), and the lowest in Russian region (r=-0.442, P< 0.05).}, }
@article {pmid39234047, year = {2024}, author = {Okatch, H and Remshifski, PA and Fennessey, A and Campbell, H and Barnoy, S and Friedman, J and Kern, SB and Frasso, R and Sorensen, C and Bar-Shalita, T and Hunter, LN}, title = {Climate change and its impact on health: a global collaborative learning model.}, journal = {Frontiers in medicine}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1438609}, pmid = {39234047}, issn = {2296-858X}, abstract = {To address the health effects of climate change, leaders in healthcare have called for action to integrate climate adaptation and mitigation into training programs for health professionals. However, current educators may not possess sufficient climate literacy and the expertise to effectively include such content in their respective healthcare curricula. We, an international and interprofessional partnership, collaborated with experts to develop and deploy curriculum to increase health educators' and graduate health profession students' knowledge and competencies on climate change. In a tri-step process, the first phase included recruiting interested faculty members from two institutions and varying health professions. In phase two, faculty members collaborated to develop a faculty symposium on climate change including educational competencies required of health professions, practice standards, guidelines, and profession-specific content. Symposium outcomes included broader faculty member interest and commitment to create an interprofessional climate change course for healthcare graduate students. In phase three, course development resulted from collaboration between faculty members at the two institutions and faculty members from the Global Consortium on Climate and Health Education (GCCHE), with course objectives informed by GCCHE competencies. Climate experts and faculty members delivered the course content over a 10-week period to 30 faculty members and students representing seven health professions, who were surveyed (n = 13) for feedback. This course can serve as an example for international collaborators interested in developing climate change courses for health profession students. Lessons learned in this process include: climate change novice faculty members can develop impactful climate change courses; students and faculty members can be co-learners; diverse representation in course attendees enriches the learning experience; and collaboration is key.}, }
@article {pmid39233440, year = {2024}, author = {Hosseiniyan Khatibi, SM and Dimaano, NG and Veliz, E and Sundaresan, V and Ali, J}, title = {Exploring and exploiting the rice phytobiome to tackle climate change challenges.}, journal = {Plant communications}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {101078}, doi = {10.1016/j.xplc.2024.101078}, pmid = {39233440}, issn = {2590-3462}, abstract = {The future of agriculture is uncertain under the current climate change scenario. Climate change directly and indirectly affects the biotic and abiotic elements that control agroecosystems, jeopardizing the safety of the world's food supply. A new area that focuses on characterizing the phytobiome is emerging. The phytobiome comprises plants and their immediate surroundings, involving numerous interdependent microscopic and macroscopic organisms that affect the health and productivity of plants. Phytobiome studies primarily focus on the microbial communities associated with plants, which are referred to as the plant microbiome. The development of high-throughput sequencing technologies over the past ten years has dramatically advanced the understanding of the structure, functionality, and dynamics of the phytobiome; however, comprehensive methods for using this knowledge are lacking, particularly on major crops such as rice. Taking into account the impact of rice production on world food security, gaining fresh perspectives on the interdependent and interrelated components of the rice phytobiome could enhance rice production and crop health, sustain rice ecosystem function, and combat the effects of climate change. Our review re-conceptualizes the complex dynamics of the microscopic and macroscopic components in the rice phytobiome as influenced by human interventions and changing environmental conditions driven by climate change. We also discuss the interdisciplinary and systematic approaches to decipher and reprogram the sophisticated interactions in the rice phytobiome using novel strategies and cutting-edge technology. Converging the gigantic datasets and complex information on the rice phytobiome and its application in the context of regenerative agriculture could lead to sustainable rice farming practices that are resilient to the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39233419, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, ST and Wang, HC and Jing, WK and Wang, QG and Yan, HJ and Qiu, XQ and Jian, HY}, title = {Simulation of climate change effect on the global distribution of Rosa multiflora.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {7}, pages = {1897-1906}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202407.022}, pmid = {39233419}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Rosa/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; China ; *Ecosystem ; Computer Simulation ; Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {Rosa multiflora, originated from East Asia, is one of the original ancestors of modern roses. It is also an important genetic resource and rootstock for rose cultivation. Due to its high resistance and vigorous growth, R. multiflora has become an invasive species in some introduction sites, such as North America. To explore the correlation between the suitable habitat of R. multiflora and climate change, we predicted its potential geographic distribution with an optimized MaxEnt model based on 1246 distribution records and nine bioclimatic variables. The results showed that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, minimum temperature of the coldest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and isothermality were significant bioclimatic variables affecting the potential geographic distribution of R. multiflora. Under current climate conditions, R. multiflora naturally distributed in the plains and hilly areas to the east and south of the Loess Plateau. The distribution pattern in the mid-holocene was similar to its current distribution, but the highly suitable distribution area was in the south of North China Plain, the Sichuan Basin, and parts of the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain. During the last interglacial, the suitable areas generally contrac-ted southward, while the highly suitable areas significantly expanded and mainly located in the Sichuan Basin, the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plains, the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and the Southeast Hills. Beyond its natural distribution in East Asia, R. multiflora had been introduced and spread to most parts of Europe and the central and eastern United States. The distribution area of R. multiflora would expand under three warming scenarios of different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) during 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. Its average distribution center (centroid) would shift towards higher latitude, indicating that the distribution of R. multiflora was closely related to climate change and that global warming might lead to an expansion of its distribution area. These results would improve our understanding of the ecological adaptability of R. multiflora, facilitate the predicting of its future distribution, and provide a theoretical basis for monitoring and early warning measures following its introduction.}, }
@article {pmid39233075, year = {2024}, author = {Huang, H and Zhou, Z and Peng, D and Chu, J}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on cephalopods in a highly productive region (Northwest Pacific): Habitat suitability and management.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175794}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175794}, pmid = {39233075}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Cephalopods occupy a mid-trophic level in marine ecosystems and are vital both ecologically and as fishery resources. However, under the pressure of climate change and fishing, the sustainability of cephalopod resources requires reasonable management. This study aims to study climate change and fishing impacts on the common economic cephalopod species habitats using species distribution models. We take the northwest Pacific Ocean region as an example, which stands out as a significant region for cephalopod production around the world. Results found that the habitats of cephalopods are moving to higher latitudes or deeper waters (Bohai Sea, mid-bottom Yellow Sea, or the Okinawa Trough waters) under climate change. Additionally, these regions are currently under lower fishing pressure, which suggests that species migration might mitigate the effects of warming and fishing. This study provides the large-scale assessment of the distribution range of cephalopods affected by climate change coping with fishing pressure in the northwest Pacific Ocean. By identifying climate refuges and key fishing grounds, we underscore the importance of this information for managing cephalopod resources in the context of climate adaptation and sustainable fishing practices.}, }
@article {pmid39232390, year = {2024}, author = {Tito, VR and Kazem, H and Kadia, SO and Paquito, B}, title = {A systematic review of mental health and climate change in the Philippines.}, journal = {Asian journal of psychiatry}, volume = {101}, number = {}, pages = {104191}, doi = {10.1016/j.ajp.2024.104191}, pmid = {39232390}, issn = {1876-2026}, abstract = {The Philippines are at the forefront of climate change impacts, including those related to health and well-being, but information on mental health and well-being are typically underreported. To help address this research lacuna, we conducted a systematic literature review. We aimed to provide an overview of current research knowledge and research gaps regarding the impacts of climate change outcomes on Filipinos' mental health and well-being. Consulting 8 databases, we identified 951 records. The final analysis included 32 studies: 16 quantitative, 11 qualitative, 2 longitudinal, 2 experimental, and 1 published report. A narrative synthesis has been performed to synthesize the findings from included studies. Studies were presented in four sections: 1) Risks to mental health following a natural disaster, 2) Determinants of post-traumatic stress disorder risks, 3) Resilience and post-traumatic growth following natural disasters, and 4) Personal experiences and other mental health outcomes. Reviewed data show that climate change outcomes strongly and negatively impact Filippino's mental health and well-being. Climate change outcomes also, negatively affect mental health through indirect (e.g., sleep disorders) and long-term pathways for example by being exposed to stressors such as migration, conflict, and violence. A set of coping strategies was identified which include banding together, mobilizing health experts, and expanding the local relationships with health workers. Future prospective studies should assess the effects of rising sea levels and vector-borne diseases among frontline communities. More interventional studies assessing preventive interventions and health promotion initiatives should be carried out to mitigate mental health disorders and improve well-being, thus contributing to improved health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid39232328, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, M and Sun, Y and Wang, H and Qi, P and Peng, Z and Wu, Y and Zhang, G}, title = {Altitude characteristics in the response of rain-on-snow flood risk to future climate change in a high-latitude water tower.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {369}, number = {}, pages = {122292}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122292}, pmid = {39232328}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Global warming is profoundly impacting snowmelt runoff processes in seasonal freeze-thaw zones, thereby altering the risk of rain-on-snow (ROS) floods. These changes not only affect the frequency of floods but also alter the allocation of water resources, which has implications for agriculture and other key economic sectors. While these risks present a significant threat to our lives and economies, the risk of ROS floods triggered by climate change has not received the attention it deserves. Therefore, we chose Changbai Mountain, a water tower in a high-latitude cold zone, as a typical study area. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT is coupled with CMIP6 meteorological data, and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) are selected after bias correction, thus quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the Changbai Mountain region as well as future evolution of the ROS flood risk. The results indicate that: (1) Under future climate change scenarios, snowmelt in most areas of the Changbai Mountains decreases. The annual average snowmelt under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 is projected to be 148.65 mm, 135.63 mm, 123.44 mm, and 116.5 mm, respectively. The onset of snowmelt is projected to advance in the future. Specifically, in the Songhua River (SR) and Yalu River (YR) regions, the start of snowmelt is expected to advance by 1-11 days. Spatially, significant reductions in snowmelt were observed in both the central part of the watershed and the lower reaches of the river under SSP585 scenario. (2) In 2021-2060, the frequency of ROS floods decreases sequentially for different scenarios, with SSP 126 > SSP 245 > SSP 370 > SSP 585. The frequency increments of ROS floods in the source area for the four scenarios were 0.12 days/year, 0.1 d/yr, 0.13 days/year, and 0.15 days/year, respectively. The frequency of high-elevation ROS events increases in the YR in the low emission scenario. Conversely, in high emission scenarios, YR high-elevation ROS events will only increase in 2061-2100. This phenomenon is more pronounced in the Tumen River (TR), where floods become more frequent with increasing elevation.}, }
@article {pmid39232275, year = {2024}, author = {Keppel, G and Stralberg, D and Morelli, TL and Bátori, Z}, title = {Managing climate-change refugia to prevent extinctions.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {39}, number = {9}, pages = {800-808}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2024.05.002}, pmid = {39232275}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Refugium ; *Biodiversity ; Animals ; }, abstract = {Earth is facing simultaneous biodiversity and climate crises. Climate-change refugia - areas that are relatively buffered from climate change - can help address both of these problems by maintaining biodiversity components when the surrounding landscape no longer can. However, this capacity to support biodiversity is often vulnerable to severe climate change and other stressors. Thus, management actions need to consider the complex and multidimensional nature of refugia. We outline an approach to understand refugia-promoting processes and to evaluate refugial capacity to determine suitable management actions. Our framework applies climate-change refugia as tools to facilitate resistance in modern conservation planning. Such refugia-focused management can reduce extinctions and maintain biodiversity under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39232116, year = {2024}, author = {Loughnan, D and Joly, S and Legault, G and Kharouba, HM and Betancourt, M and Wolkovich, EM}, title = {Phenology varies with phylogeny but not by trophic level with climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39232116}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Shifts in phenology with climate change can lead to asynchrony between interacting species, with cascading impacts on ecosystem services. Previous meta-analyses have produced conflicting results on whether asynchrony has increased in recent decades, but the underlying data have also varied-including in species composition, interaction types and whether studies compared data grouped by trophic level or compared shifts in known interacting species pairs. Here, using updated data from previous studies and a Bayesian phylogenetic model, we found that species have advanced an average of 3.1 days per decade across 1,279 time series across 29 taxonomic classes. We found no evidence that shifts vary by trophic level: shifts were similar when grouped by trophic level, and for species pairs when grouped by their type of interaction-either as paired species known to interact or as randomly paired species. Phenology varied with phylogeny (λ = 0.4), suggesting that uneven sampling of species may affect estimates of phenology and potentially phenological shifts. These results could aid forecasting for well-sampled groups but suggest that climate change has not yet led to widespread increases in phenological asynchrony across interacting species, although substantial biases in current data make forecasting for most groups difficult.}, }
@article {pmid39232079, year = {2024}, author = {Li, C and Luo, G and Yue, C and Zhang, L and Duan, Y and Liu, Y and Yang, S and Wang, Z and Chen, P}, title = {Distribution patterns and potential suitable habitat prediction of Ceracris kiangsu (Orthoptera: Arcypteridae) under climate change- a case study of China and Southeast Asia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {20580}, pmid = {39232079}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; China ; Asia, Southeastern ; Orthoptera/physiology ; Animal Distribution ; Grasshoppers/physiology ; }, abstract = {Ceracris kiangsu (Orthoptera: Arcypteridae), is greatly affected by climatic factors and exhibits strong adaptability, posing a serious threat to the ecological environment. Therefore, predicting its potential suitable habitat distribution provides a proactive theoretical basis for pest control. This study using the Biomod2 package of R simulated and predicted the current and future potential distribution, area changes, changes in the center points of suitable habitats, and niche shifts of C. kiangsu under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, SSP1-26 and SSP5-85. The results show that: (1) Currently, the high suitability areas for C. kiangsu are mainly distributed in Yunnan, Jiangxi, Hunan provinces in southern China and phongsaly province in northern Laos. In the future, the center of the suitable habitat distribution pattern of C. kiangsu will remain unchanged, primarily expanding outward from medium and high suitability areas. Additionally, significant suitable habitats for C. kiangsu were discovered in Southeast Asian countries without previous pest records. (2) Compared to the present, the overall suitable habitat area for C. kiangsu is expected to expand, particularly under the SSP5-85 climate change scenario. (3) In the SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 climate scenarios, the geometric center of the suitable habitat generally shows a trend of gradually shifting northeast. (4) Under different climate scenarios, the suitable habitat of C. kiangsu has highly overlapping, indicating that the suitable habitat of C. kiangsu in the invaded areas is broader than in its native regions. In conclusion, the research findings represent a breakthrough in identifying the potential distribution areas of C. kiangsu, which is of great practical significance for the monitoring and control of C. kiangsu pest infestation in China and Southeast Asian countries.}, }
@article {pmid39232016, year = {2024}, author = {Sharaftmandrad, M and Abedi Sarvestani, A and Shahraki, M and Hassanzadeh Nafooti, M}, title = {Uncovering the reasons behind the failure of pastoralists in adopting climate change adaptation strategies.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {20602}, pmid = {39232016}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change has caused pastoralists to face serious challenges all around the world. To reduce climate change vulnerability, adaptation strategies need to be adopted by pastoralists. In this regard, the present research was done to seek the reasons for the failure of the northeastern pastoralists of Iran in adopting climate change adaptation strategies. The study is descriptive, which conducted by a field survey. The target population included 249 pastoralists from 7 pastoral units, of whom 148 people were selected as sample size using the stratified random sampling technique. The survey instrument was a researcher-made questionnaire. The content validity and face validity of the questionnaire were checked by the experts. Convergent validity was also confirmed based on the average variance extracted (AVE). Cronbach's α coefficient and composite reliability (CR) were used to evaluate the internal consistency of the questionnaire. The results showed that social and, regulatory and insurance components were the most critical internal and external weaknesses of the pastoralists' failure in adopting climate change adaptation strategies, respectively. Structural equation modeling showed that external weaknesses had positive and significant effects on internal weaknesses of the pastoralists' failure in adopting climate change adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39231177, year = {2024}, author = {Mondo, JM and Chuma, GB and Matiti, HM and Kihye, JB and Bagula, EM and Karume, K and Kahindo, C and Egeru, A and Majaliwa, JM and Agre, PA and Adebola, PA and Asfaw, A}, title = {Crop calendar optimization for climate change adaptation in yam farming in South-Kivu, eastern D.R. Congo.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {e0309775}, pmid = {39231177}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Dioscorea/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Democratic Republic of the Congo ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Rain ; Agriculture/methods ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The traditional crop calendar for yam (Dioscorea spp.) in South-Kivu, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), is becoming increasingly inadequate given the significant climatic variability observed over the last three decades. This study aimed at: (i) assessing trends in weather data across time and space to ascertain climate change, and (ii) optimizing the yam crop calendar for various South-Kivu agro-ecological zones (AEZs) to adapt to the changing climate. The 1990-2022 weather data series were downloaded from the NASA-MERRA platform, bias correction was carried out using local weather stations' records, and analyses were performed using RClimDex 1.9. Local knowledge and CROPWAT 8.0 were used to define planting dates for yam in different AEZs. Results showed the existence of four AEZs in the South-Kivu province, with contrasting altitudes, temperatures, and rainfall patterns. Climate change is real in all these South-Kivu's AEZs, resulting either in rainfall deficits in some areas, or extreme rainfall events in others, with significant temperature increases across all AEZs. Suitable yam planting dates varied with AEZs, September 15th and 20th were recommended for the AEZ 2 while October 15th was optimal for AEZ 1, AEZ 3, and AEZ 4. However, none of the planting date scenarios could meet the yam water requirements in AEZ1, AEZ3, and AEZ4, since the effective rainfall (Pmm) was always inferior to the plant water demand (ETc), meaning that soil water conservation practices are needed for optimum plant growth and yield in these AEZs. This study does not recommend planting yam during the short rainy season owing to prolonged droughts coinciding with critical growth phases of yam, unless supplemental irrigation is envisaged. This study provided insights on the nature of climate change across the past three decades and suggested a yam crop calendar that suits the changing climate of eastern DRC.}, }
@article {pmid39230886, year = {2024}, author = {Chekuri, B and O'Connor, T and Lemery, J}, title = {Climate Change and Preventable Injuries.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2024.13818}, pmid = {39230886}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid39229603, year = {2024}, author = {Mutsvene, T and Klingelhöfer, HE}, title = {Hedging climate change risks in Southern Africa's agricultural industry using catastrophe bonds.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {1641}, pmid = {39229603}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The agricultural sector is one of the key economic contributors in Southern Africa. However, agricultural production has been highly affected by climate change risks such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heatwaves, hail, etc., which threaten food and nutrition security, livelihoods and business sustainability. Because of underwriting capacity problems, insurers and reinsurers have failed to provide cover for climate change risks. Also, derivatives have failed to provide a reliable option for hedging such risks. This paper explores the concept of catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) in providing climate change risk finance. Employing the content analysis, the research shows how CAT bonds can help traditional (re)insurance in providing sufficient hedge against climate change risks and in improving disaster-preparedness, disaster risk-reduction, post-recovery initiatives and sustainable socio-economic agricultural development. The findings show that the adoption of CAT bonds can improve (re)insurers´ underwriting capacity and may enhance agricultural land policies, development, food and nutrition security and employment.<br><br>CONTRIBUTION: The paper shows how CAT bonds can be employed to hedge against climate change risks in agricultural production and to increase (re)insurers&#xb4; underwriting capacity. It further discusses the attractiveness of CAT bonds as another investment option for agricultural investors and how to develop and institutionalise a CAT bond market.}, }
@article {pmid39229601, year = {2024}, author = {Muragijimana, C and Ntakirutimana, T and Khan, S}, title = {Climate change, culture and health: Indigenous resilience, a study from Turkana County, Kenya.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {1647}, pmid = {39229601}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change and recurring droughts-induced effects on health are becoming an increasingly main global, cultural and public health burden. The heaviest health burden leans on the fragile socio-economic systems among the remote agro-pastoral communities, living in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs). Previous studies underlined the indispensability of indigenous knowledge (IK) for resilience-driven disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies. However, more attention has been drawn towards the necessity of IK in weather forecasts, with less emphasis on its indispensability to alleviate health burden associated with climate change and droughts. We explored the contextual application of IK-based adaptation and related complementarity aspects for culturally relevant and sustainable DRR strategies for the nomadic agro-pastoral communities in Lopur, Turkana, Kenya. Relying on a descriptive qualitative study in phenomenological approach, purposive sampling and focus group discussions with key community influencers, a thematic analysis was conducted for an in-depth understanding and interpretation of data patterns. The contextualised insights revealed the growing vulnerability as a result of the disconnect between modern interventions, IK and the newly adopted environmental degrading coping tactics. Policy-wise, the findings portrayed the necessity for cultural integration and incorporation of indigenous knowledge-based strategies and systems for reinforced information dissemination, accessibility and acceptability for droughts preparedness and response.<br><br>CONTRIBUTION: This study underlined the existing room for scientific exploration of the already existing indigenous knowledge-based solutions for food and water insecurity, towards improved resilience for the vulnerable communities experiencing inequitable climate change calamities in the ASALs.}, }
@article {pmid39229052, year = {2024}, author = {Couper, LI and Dodge, TO and Hemker, JA and Kim, BY and Exposito-Alonso, M and Brem, RB and Mordecai, EA and Bitter, MC}, title = {Evolutionary adaptation under climate change: Aedes sp. demonstrates potential to adapt to warming.}, journal = {bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1101/2024.08.23.609454}, pmid = {39229052}, issn = {2692-8205}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate warming is expected to shift the distributions of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases, facilitating expansions at cool range edges and contractions at warm edges. However, whether mosquito populations could maintain their warm range edges through evolutionary adaptation remains unknown. Here, we investigate the potential for thermal adaptation in Aedes sierrensis , a congener of the major disease vector species that experiences large thermal gradients in its native range, by assaying tolerance to prolonged and acute heat exposure, and their genetic basis in a diverse, field-derived population. We found pervasive evidence of heritable genetic variation in acute heat tolerance, which phenotypically trades off with tolerance to prolonged heat exposure. A simple evolutionary model based on our data shows that, under most scenarios, the estimated maximum rate of evolutionary adaptation in mosquito heat tolerance exceeds that of projected climate warming. Our findings indicate that natural mosquito populations likely have the potential to track projected warming via genetic adaptation. Prior climate-based projections may thus underestimate the range of mosquito and mosquito-borne disease distributions under future climate conditions.<br><br>SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Global change may have profound impacts on the distribution of mosquito-borne diseases, which collectively cause nearly one million deaths each year. Accurately predicting these impacts is critical for disease control preparedness, and will depend, in part, on whether mosquitoes can adapt to warming-a key open question. Using experimental and genomic data from a relative of major vector species that already experiences a wide thermal gradient, we find that natural mosquito populations have high levels of genetically-based variation in heat tolerance that could enable adaptation on pace with warming. Incorporating the potential for adaptive responses may therefore be necessary for accurate predictions of mosquito-borne disease distributions under warming, which is critical for preparing mosquito control interventions.}, }
@article {pmid39228814, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, J and Zhao, Z and Fang, W and Ma, Z and Liu, M and Bi, J}, title = {China's progress in synergetic governance of climate change and multiple environmental issues.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {pgae351}, pmid = {39228814}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {Advancing the synergetic control of climate change and environmental crisis is crucial for achieving global sustainable development goals. This study evaluates synergetic governance levels over climate change and four environmental issues at the provincial level in China from 2009 to 2020. Our findings reveal significant progress in China's coordinated efforts to mitigate carbon emissions, reduce air pollutants, and conserve water resources. However, there remains room for improvement in managing solid waste and protecting ecological systems and overall progress in synergetic governance has slowed since 2015. Employing a random forest model, we identify socio-economic factors with great influence on synergetic climate change and environmental governance, such as energy intensity, service sector development, electronic equipment manufacturing, and transportation. Additionally, we reveal nonlinear relationships between some factors and performance of environmental subsystems, including both plateau effects (e.g. output in the smelting of ferrous metals) and U-shaped patterns (e.g. output in the manufacturing of metal products), possibly attributed to constraints in end-of-pipe treatment capacities and complexities in supply chain networks. Furthermore, through hierarchical clustering analysis, we classify provinces into four groups and provide tailored recommendations for policymakers to enhance synergetic governance levels in their respective regions. The framework established in this study also serves as a valuable reference for countries seeking to develop practical and context-specific solutions to mitigate climate and environmental risks.}, }
@article {pmid39228044, year = {2024}, author = {Miller, FW}, title = {The Environment, Lifestyles and Climate Change: The Many Nongenetic Contributors to The Long and Winding Road to Autoimmune Diseases.}, journal = {Arthritis care &amp; research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/acr.25423}, pmid = {39228044}, issn = {2151-4658}, abstract = {A critical unanswered question is what is causing the increase in the prevalence of autoimmunity and autoimmune diseases around the world. Given the rapidity of change, this is likely the result of major recent alterations in our exposures to environmental risk factors for these diseases. More evidence is becoming available that the evolution of autoimmune disease, years or even decades in the making, results from multiple exposures that alter susceptible genomes and immune systems over time. Exposures during sensitive phases in key developmental or hormonal periods may set the stage for the effects of later exposures. It is likely that synergistic and additive impacts of exposure mixtures result in chronic low-level inflammation. This inflammation may eventually pass thresholds that lead to immune system activation and autoimmunity, and, with further molecular and pathologic changes, the complete clinical syndrome emerges. Much work remains to be done to define the mechanisms and risk and protective factors for autoimmune conditions. However, evidence points to a variety of pollutants, xenobiotics, infections, occupational exposures, medications, smoking, psychosocial stressors, changes in diet, obesity, exercise, and sleep patterns, as well as climate change impacts of increased heat, storms, floods, wildfires, droughts, ultraviolet radiation, malnutrition, and changing infections, as possible contributors. Substantial investments in defining the role of causal factors, in whom and when their effects are most important, the necessary and sufficient gene-environment interactions, improved diagnostics and therapies, and preventative strategies are needed now to limit the many negative personal, societal, and financial impacts that will otherwise occur.}, }
@article {pmid39227637, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, Z and Jing, Z and Zhai, X and Vic, C and Sun, H and de Lavergne, C and Yuan, M}, title = {Enhanced generation of internal tides under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {7657}, pmid = {39227637}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {42325601 and 92358303//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 42306013//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {A primary driver of deep-ocean mixing is breaking of internal tides generated via interactions of barotropic tides with topography. It is important to understand how the energy conversion from barotropic to internal tides responds to global warming. Here we address this question by applying a linear model of internal tide generation to coupled global climate model simulations under a high carbon emission scenario. The energy conversion to high-mode internal tides is projected to rise by about 8% by the end of the 21st century, whereas the energy conversion to low-mode internal tides remains nearly unchanged. The intensified near-bottom stratification under global warming increases energy conversion into both low and high-mode internal tides. In contrast, the intensified depth-averaged stratification reduces the modal horizontal wavenumber of internal tides, leading to increased (decreased) energy conversion into high (low)- mode internal tides. Our findings imply stronger mixing over rough topography under global warming, which should be properly parameterized in climate models for more accurate projections of future climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid39226553, year = {2024}, author = {Campos, LS}, title = {Climate Change, the Environment, and Health: A Call to Action.}, journal = {Acta medica portuguesa}, volume = {37}, number = {9}, pages = {579-581}, doi = {10.20344/amp.22100}, pmid = {39226553}, issn = {1646-0758}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Global Health ; Environmental Health ; Environment ; }, }
@article {pmid39225510, year = {2024}, author = {Soomro, S and Zhou, D and Charan, IA}, title = {Investigating associations between climate change anxiety and mental health impact on vulnerable populations: A qualitative analysis.}, journal = {African journal of reproductive health}, volume = {28}, number = {8}, pages = {108-121}, doi = {10.29063/ajrh2024/v28i8.11}, pmid = {39225510}, issn = {1118-4841}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Adolescent ; Child ; *Mental Health ; *Qualitative Research ; Male ; *Vulnerable Populations/psychology ; *Anxiety/epidemiology/psychology ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; Interviews as Topic ; Students/psychology ; }, abstract = {Climate anxiety has a negative impact on the mental health and psychological wellbeing of the vulnerable population. The goal is to assess many factors that affect mental health and psychological wellbeing, as well as how climate change affects mental health in Pakistan's vulnerable population. This study provides evidence-based insights on the long- and medium-term impacts of extreme weather events on mental health. We conducted semi-structured interviews with a sample of 72 students aged 10-16 years, employing an exploratory qualitative design. The resulting process identified themes and questions for future research on climate change and its psychological effects on children's mental health. As a result, positive emotions embedded in children's climate strategic actions in parent and community contexts helped to mitigate children's perceptions of negative emotions (such as climate anxiety, phobias, fear, sleep disorders, depression, sadness, and substance abuse). Climate change's effects can have a significant impact on mental health. We will be discussing effective strategies to address the expected mental health issues among children caused by climate change. The discussion paper offers a set of recommendations for addressing the mental health impacts of climate change, including improving mental health support systems, integrating climate change education into services, and developing targeted interventions for vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid39224369, year = {2024}, author = {He, F and Liang, L and Wang, H and Li, A and La, M and Wang, Y and Zhang, X and Zou, D}, title = {Amphibians rise to flourishing under climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {16}, pages = {e35860}, pmid = {39224369}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Amphibian populations are declining globally due to climate change. However, the impacts on the geographic distribution of amphibians on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), a global biodiversity hotspot with 112 species of amphibians that is sensitive to global climate change, remains unclear. In this study, MaxEnt and barycentre shift analyses were performed to reveal the impact of climate change on the potential future habitats of amphibians on the QTP using the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate model of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate pattern with three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). In contrast to the widespread decline in the amphibian population, the future scenarios projected an increase in most amphibian habitats on the QTP, accompanied by migration to higher elevations or latitudes under three climatic projections (SSP 1-2.6, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5). Average annual precipitation was the most crucial environmental variable impacting the future distribution of amphibians. The findings indicate that amphibians would flourish under climate change on the QTP, which is of great significance for the protection of amphibians and biodiversity on the QTP.}, }
@article {pmid39224333, year = {2024}, author = {Akinkuolie, TA and Ogunbode, TO and Oyebamiji, VO}, title = {Evaluating constraints associated with farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change impact on farming in the tropical environment.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {16}, pages = {e36086}, pmid = {39224333}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The persistent threat of climate change poses challenges to food security, despite numerous adaptation strategies, necessitating attention to achieve sustainable livelihoods. This study conducted a survey among 220 farmers in fifteen selected rural communities from five political wards in Ondo West Local Government Area, Ondo State, Nigeria, using a multistage sampling technique. Both descriptive and inferential statistical methods were used to analyse data obtained. The results indicated that 90 % of the farmers had knowledge of consequences of climate change, while 75 % have adopted various strategies to cope with the menace. The data were factorable at p ≤ 0.05 using KMO and Bartlett's tests. Four variables were extracted out of nine analysed as significant to the explanation of constraints to CC adaptation strategies, namely: engagement in other jobs (16.499 %); farmers' experience with the varying nature of weather patterns (14.526 %); farm size variation (13.485 %); and the difficulty posed by coping with recurring erratic rainfall (11.925 %). All four variables identified and extracted explained 56.446 % of the constraints hindering farmers from coping with climate change. The study recommended further studies to identify other variables that could be accountable for the constraints in coping with the climate change scenario in the study area. The contributions of farmers' experiences to the failure of various strategies in coping with climate change form the nexus to other extracted variables and, therefore, need further investigation for sustainable agriculture globally.}, }
@article {pmid39224273, year = {2024}, author = {Viet Ha, TT and Zhou, W}, title = {Response of the Northeast China grain market to climate change based on the gravity model approach.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {16}, pages = {e36139}, pmid = {39224273}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Scientific evidence has revealed that climate change negatively affects agricultural crop production both regionally and globally. Previous studies have indicated that the role of climate change is significant in some parts of China. Thus, assessing the impact of the future climate on the grain market is vital for ensuring regional and national food security. In this study, regional climate model (RCM 4.5 and 8.5) simulations were employed to investigate the role of future climate change on a major grain-producing market in China (Northeast China). For this purpose, historical (2004-2017) and future (2020-2076) data were applied in the gravity model to examine the effects of climate change on the Northeast China grain market. The results revealed that the maximum temperature is a crucial climate factor that significantly affects the grain market. The analysis revealed that precipitation was positively related and that the temperature was significantly negatively related to domestic consumption and exports of rice, maize, and soybean. Moreover, the analysis of the RCM (4.5 and 8.5) simulations revealed a negative contribution of the maximum temperature to domestic consumption and export levels. Overall, the analysis enhances our understanding of the impacts of climate change on the Northeast China grain market.}, }
@article {pmid39224164, year = {2024}, author = {Gao, J and Wei, Z and Jin, Y}, title = {The impact of elevation and prediction of climate change on an ultra high-elevation ectotherm.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {9}, pages = {e70186}, pmid = {39224164}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change may affect the survival and reproduction of ectotherms. The toad-headed lizard Phrynocephalus theobaldi, which holds the distinction of occupying the highest elevation among all reptile species on Earth, with an elevational range from 3600 to 5000 m, represents an ideal model for studying the adaptations to climatic changes across elevational gradients. Here, we used mechanistic and hybrid species distribution models (HSDM) together with characteristic measurements of thermal biology (CTmax, CTmin, and Tsel) to simulate and compare the distribution and activity periods of the lizard across elevations in response to climate change. NicheMapR simulations using only climate factors predicted that all populations will be negatively impacted by climate change (+3°C) by suffering a reduced distribution. However, the impact was clearly reduced in simulations that accounted for thermal physiological traits. Longer activity periods were predicted for all populations during climate change. The suitable distribution is predicted to change slightly, with an increase anticipated for both high and low elevation populations. However, the forecast indicates a more pronounced increase in suitable habitats for populations at higher elevations (>4200 m) compared to those at lower elevations (<4200 m). This study underscores the key influence of climate change on population establishment and stresses the importance of physiological traits in distribution simulation for future studies to understand the potential constraints in animal adaptation to extreme high environments.}, }
@article {pmid39222727, year = {2024}, author = {Han, W and Zheng, J and Guan, J and Liu, Y and Liu, L and Han, C and Li, J and Li, C and Tian, R and Mao, X}, title = {A greater negative impact of future climate change on vegetation in Central Asia: Evidence from trajectory/pattern analysis.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {119898}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119898}, pmid = {39222727}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {In the context of global warming, vegetation changes exhibit various patterns, yet previous studies have focused primarily on monotonic changes, often overlooking the complexity and diversity of multiple change processes. Therefore, it is crucial to further explore vegetation dynamics and diverse change trajectories in this region under future climate scenarios to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of local ecosystem evolution. In this study, we established an integrated machine learning prediction framework and a vegetation change trajectory recognition framework to predict the dynamics of vegetation in Central Asia under future climate change scenarios and identify its change trajectories, thus revealing the potential impacts of future climate change on vegetation in the region. The findings suggest that various future climate scenarios will negatively affect most vegetation in Central Asia, with vegetation change intensity increasing with increasing emission trajectories. Analyses of different time scales and trend variations consistently revealed more pronounced downward trends. Vegetation change trajectory analysis revealed that most vegetation has undergone nonlinear and dramatic changes, with negative changes outnumbering positive changes and curve changes outnumbering abrupt changes. Under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the abrupt vegetation changes and curve changes are 1.7 times and 1.3 times greater, respectively, than those under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. When transitioning from lower emission pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5) to higher emission pathways (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), the vegetation change trajectories shift from neutral and negative curve changes to abrupt negative changes. Across climate scenarios, the key climate factors influencing vegetation changes are mostly evapotranspiration and soil moisture, with temperature and relative humidity exerting relatively minor effects. Our study reveals the negative response of vegetation in Central Asia to climate change from the perspective of vegetation dynamics and change trajectories, providing a scientific basis for the development of effective ecological protection and climate adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39222231, year = {2024}, author = {Sahoo, D and Moharaj, P}, title = {Assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change through dynamic indexing approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39222231}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {IoE-6031//Banaras Hindu University/ ; }, abstract = {The present study aims to assess agricultural vulnerability in the context of climate change, focusing on the diverse districts of Odisha. Acknowledging that vulnerability is influenced by exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, our research incorporates the growth rate and instability of vital performance indicators to evaluate the relative vulnerability of each district. A key strength of this approach is the use of normalized indicators, weighted in accordance with the proportional acreage of major crops in each district relative to the state, culminating in a comprehensive vulnerability index through the aggregation of these weighted components. Our findings reveal significant variability in the vulnerability profiles across districts, thereby necessitating state-level intervention through tailored "Location Performance Vulnerability" based adaptation strategies. These strategies, including early weather warning systems, development of new and early maturing crop varieties, and adjustment of crop planting dates, are crucial for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture. The study's methodology and findings offer significant contributions to the field, providing policymakers and stakeholders with a district-specific framework for climate change adaptation. This approach is especially relevant for the international academic and policy-making communities, as it highlights the importance of localized adaptation strategies in the broader context of global climate change resilience.}, }
@article {pmid39222225, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, WT and Kono, M and Lee, CP and Chang, YY and Yang, YH and Lin, CC and Liu, TM and Li, HC and Chen, YM and Chen, PC}, title = {Climate Change Projections for Stroke Incidence in Taiwan: Impact of 2 °C and 4 °C Global Warming Level.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and global health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39222225}, issn = {2210-6014}, support = {MOST-111-2119-M-002//National Science Council (NSC), Executive Yuan, Taiwan/ ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to establish the exposure-lag-response effect between daily maximum temperature and stroke-related emergency department visits and to project heat-induced stroke impacts under global warming levels (GWL) of 2 °C and 4 °C.<br><br>METHODS: Stroke-related emergency department visits in Taiwan from 2001 to 2020 were identified using the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). The study population consisted of 1,100,074 initial stroke cases matched with 2,200,148 non-stroke controls. We employed Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM) in a case-crossover study to investigate the association between temperature and stroke. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models with a Poisson function were used to correlate high-temperature exposure with annual stroke incidence rates. Projections were made under two global warming scenarios, GWL 2.0&#xa0;&#xb0;C and 4.0&#xa0;&#xb0;C, using Coupled General Circulation Model (GCMs). Baseline data from 1995 to 2014 were transformed for spatial distribution at the township level. Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis was performed using Quantum GIS 3.2.0 software.<br><br>RESULTS: DLNM exposure-lag-response effect revealed that daily maximum temperature exceeding 34&#xa0;&#xb0;C significantly increased the risk of stroke-related emergency department visits, particularly for ischemic stroke. Under the 2&#xa0;&#xb0;C GWL scenario, the frequency of days with temperatures surpassing 34&#xa0;&#xb0;C is projected to rise substantially by the median year of 2042, with a further increase to 92.6&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;18.0 days/year by 2065 under the 4&#xa0;&#xb0;C GWL scenario. Ischemic stroke showed the highest increase in temperature-related incidence rates, notably rising from 7.80% under the GWL 2&#xa0;&#xb0;C to 36.06% under the GWL 4&#xa0;&#xb0;C. Specifically, the annual temperature-related incidence rate for ischemic stroke is expected to increase significantly by 2065. Regions such as Taichung, Hsinchu, Yilan, and Taitung demonstrated pronounced changes in heat-related ischemic stroke incidence under the GWL 4&#xa0;&#xb0;C.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The findings emphasize the importance of addressing temperature-related stroke risks, particularly in regions projected to experience significant temperature increases. Effective mitigation strategies are crucial to reduce the impact of rising temperatures on stroke incidence and safeguard public health.}, }
@article {pmid39221818, year = {2024}, author = {Kouakou, YE and Dely, ID and Doumbia, M and Ouattara, A and N'da, EJ and Brou, KE and Zouzou, YA and Cissé, G and Koné, B}, title = {Methodological framework for assessing malaria risk associated with climate change in Côte d'Ivoire.}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.4081/gh.2024.1285}, pmid = {39221818}, issn = {1970-7096}, mesh = {Cote d'Ivoire/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Risk Assessment ; Female ; Pregnancy ; Risk Factors ; Child, Preschool ; }, abstract = {Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity among children under five years of age and pregnant women in Côte d'Ivoire. We assessed the geographical distribution of its risk in all climatic zones of the country based on the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach to climate risk analysis. This methodology considers three main driving components affecting the risk: Hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Considering the malaria impact chain, various variables were identified for each of the risk factors and for each variable, a measurable indicator was identified. These indicators were then standardized, weighted through a participatory approach based on expert judgement and finally aggregated to calculate current and future risk. With regard to the four climatic zones in the country: Attieen (sub-equatorial regime) in the South, Baouleen (humid tropical) in the centre, Sudanese or equatorial (tropical transition regime) in the North and the mountainous (humid) in the West. Malaria risk among pregnant women and children under 5 was found to be higher in the mountainous and the Baouleen climate, with the hazard highest in the mountainous climate and Exposure very high in the Attieen climate. The most vulnerable districts were those in Baouleen, Attieen and the mountainous climates. By 2050, the IPCC representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios predict an increase in risk in almost all climatic zones, compared to current levels, with the former considering a moderate scenario, with an emissions peak around 2040 followed by a decline and RCP 8.5 giving the highest baseline emissions scenario, in which emissions continue to rise. It is expected that the AR5 approach to climate risk analysis will be increasingly used in climate risk assessment studies so that it can be better assessed at a variety of scales.}, }
@article {pmid39221648, year = {2024}, author = {Braz-Mota, S and Luis Val, A}, title = {Fish mortality in the Amazonian drought of 2023: the role of experimental biology in our response to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {227}, number = {17}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.247255}, pmid = {39221648}, issn = {1477-9145}, support = {465540/2014-7//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 062.1187/2017//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas/ ; 001//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Fishes/physiology ; *Droughts ; Brazil ; Biodiversity ; Rainforest ; }, abstract = {Higher temperatures exacerbate drought conditions by increasing evaporation rates, reducing soil moisture and altering precipitation patterns. As global temperatures rise as a result of climate change, these effects intensify, leading to more frequent and severe droughts. This link between higher temperatures and drought is particularly evident in sensitive ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest, where reduced rainfall and higher evaporation rates result in significantly lower water levels, threatening biodiversity and human livelihoods. As an example, the serious drought experienced in the Amazon basin in 2023 resulted in a significant decline in fish populations. Elevated water temperatures, reaching up to 38°C, led to mass mortality events, because these temperatures surpass the thermal tolerance of many Amazonian fish species. We know this because our group has collected data on critical thermal maxima (CTmax) for various fish species over multiple years. Additionally, warmer waters can cause hypoxia, further exacerbating fish mortality. Thus, even Amazon fish species, which have relatively high thermal tolerance, are being impacted by climate change. The Amazon drought experienced in 2023 underscores the urgent need for climate action to mitigate the devastating effects on Amazonian biodiversity. The fact that we have been able to link fish mortality events to data on the thermal tolerance of fishes emphasizes the important role of experimental biology in elucidating the mechanisms behind these events, a link that we aim to highlight in this Perspective.}, }
@article {pmid39220889, year = {2024}, author = {Cheng, L and Wu, C}, title = {Does the implementation of economic policies connected to climate change depend on monetary policy mandates and financial stability governance structures?.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {16}, pages = {e35294}, pmid = {39220889}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The objective of the proposed research study is to examine how the economic policy mandates and governance frameworks of central banks affect the implementation of climate-related economic measures. Empirical evidence supports a positive correlation between the adoption of climate-related economic policies and a broader mandate for monetary policy. The existing body of research contradicts the idea that an enhanced framework for governing economic stability will result in higher implementation of financial measures related to climate change. The study, which focuses on China from 2015 to 2023, concludes that enhanced economic stability governance, founded on less integrated arrangements, leads to more successful implementation of climate-related financial measures. For other criteria such as central bank independence, the existence of a democratic government, and membership in the Sustainable Banking Network, a positive and statistically significant influence is seen across all specifications. Physical risks associated with climate change, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and storms, as well as transition risks represented by variables like per-person CO2 emissions, policies aimed at mitigating climate change, and the financial capacity to carry out climate adaptation plans, must also manifest. Even after accounting for a new dependent variable and several alternative model parameters, the findings hold up well. We employ a fixed-effects panel regression approach to control for unobserved heterogeneity and isolate the impact of time-varying variables on renewable energy production. This methodology ensures robust and consistent estimates, providing clear insights into how monetary policy adjustments influence renewable energy investments.}, }
@article {pmid39218103, year = {2024}, author = {Deopa, R and Thakur, DA and Kumar, S and Mohanty, MP and Asha, P}, title = {Discerning the dynamics of urbanization-climate change-flood risk nexus in densely populated urban mega cities: An appraisal of efficient flood management through spatiotemporal and geostatistical rainfall analysis and hydrodynamic modeling.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175882}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175882}, pmid = {39218103}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {While the contribution of climate change towards intensifying urban flood risks is well acknowledged, the role of urbanization is less known. The present study, for the first time in flood management literature, explores whether and how unplanned-cum-urbanization may overshadow the contribution of extreme rainfall to flood impacts in densely populated urban regions. To establish this hypothesis and exemplify our proposed framework, the National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi in India, infamous for its concurrent flood episodes is selected. The study categorically explores whether the catastrophic 2023 urban flood could have resulted in a similar degree of urban exposure and damage, had it occurred anytime in the past. A comprehensive spatiotemporal and geo-statistical analysis of rainfall over 11 stations brought about through Innovative trend analysis, Omnidirectional and directional Semi-variogram analysis, and Gini Index indicates a rise in extreme rainfalls. High-resolution land-use maps indicate about 39.53 %, 52.66 %, 56.60 %, and 69.18 % of urban footprints during 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023, while gradient direction maps indicate a prominent urban surge towards the North-West, West, and Southwest corridors. A closer inspection of the Greenness and Urbanity indices reveals a gradual decline in the green footprints and concurrent escalation in the urban footprints over the decades. A 3-way coupled MIKE+ model was set up to replicate the July 2023 flood event; indicating about 13 % of the area experience "high" and "very-high" flood hazards. By overlaying the flood inundation and hazard maps over land-use maps for 1993, 2003, and 2013, we further establish that a similar flood event would have resulted in lesser damage and building exposure. The study offers a set of flood management options for refurbishing resilience and limiting flood risks. The study delivers critical insights into the existing urban flood management strategies while delving into the urban growth-climate change-flood risk nexus.}, }
@article {pmid39217778, year = {2024}, author = {Chan, HW and Lin, L and Tam, KP and Hong, YY}, title = {From negative feelings to impairments: A longitudinal study on the development of climate change anxiety.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {107}, number = {}, pages = {102917}, doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2024.102917}, pmid = {39217778}, issn = {1873-7897}, abstract = {People may experience anxiety and related distress when they come in contact with climate change (i.e., climate change anxiety). Climate change anxiety can be conceptualized as either emotional-based response (the experience of anxiety-related emotions) or impairment-based response (the experience of impairment in daily functioning). To date, it remains uncertain how these distinct manifestations of climate change anxiety are related. Conceptually, the experience of climate change anxiety may transform from an adaptive and healthy emotional response to an impairment in daily functioning. We conducted two two-wave longitudinal studies to examine the possible bidirectional relationships between three manifestations of climate change anxiety. We recruited 942 adults (mean age = 43.1) and 683 parents (mean age = 46.2) in Studies 1 and 2, respectively. We found that Time 1 emotion-based response was positively linked to Time 2 cognitive-emotional impairment, while Time 1 cognitive-emotional impairment was positively related to Time 2 functional impairment. In Study 2, we also found a bidirectional positive relationship between generalized anxiety and emotion-based climate change anxiety over time. Overall, our findings provide initial support to the temporal relationships between different manifestations of climate change anxiety, corroborating that climate change anxiety may develop from emotional responses to impairment in functioning.}, }
@article {pmid39216332, year = {2024}, author = {He, G and Lin, Y and Hu, J and Chen, Y and Guo, Y and Yu, M and Zeng, F and Duan, H and Meng, R and Zhou, C and Xiao, Y and Huang, B and Gong, W and Liu, J and Liu, T and Zhou, M and Ma, W}, title = {The trends of non-accidental mortality burden attributed to compound hot-dry events in China and its provinces in a global warming world.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {191}, number = {}, pages = {108977}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2024.108977}, pmid = {39216332}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global warming has provoked more co-occurrence of hot extreme and dry extreme, namely compound hot-dry events (CHDEs). However, their health impacts have seldom been investigated. This study aimed to characterize CHDEs and assess its mortality burden in China from 1990 to 2100.<br><br>METHODS: CHDEs were defined as a day when daily maximum temperature&#xa0;>&#xa0;its 90th percentile and Standardized Precipitation Index&#xa0;<&#xa0;its 50th percentile. A two-stage approach, including a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and a multivariate meta-analysis, was used to estimate exposure-response associations of CHDEs with mortality in 358 counties/districts during 2006-2017 in China, which was then applied to assess the national mortality burden attributable to CHDEs from 1990 to 2100.<br><br>FINDINGS: We observed a significant increasing trend of CHDEs in China until mid-21st century, and then flatted, while the duration and intensity of CHDEs continuously increased across the 21st century. CHDEs were much riskier (ER=17.82&#xa0;%, 95&#xa0;%CI: 14.17&#xa0;%-21.60&#xa0;%) than independent hot events (ER=5.86&#xa0;%,95&#xa0;%CI: -0.04&#xa0;%,12.45&#xa0;%) or dry events (ER=0.07&#xa0;%,95&#xa0;%CI: -1.22&#xa0;%, 1.38&#xa0;%), and there was significantly additive interaction between hot events and dry events (AP=0.10,95&#xa0;%CI: 0.04, 0.16). Females (ER=24.28&#xa0;%, 95&#xa0;%CI: 19.21&#xa0;%-29.56&#xa0;%), the elderly (ER=23.28&#xa0;%, 95&#xa0;%CI: 18.23&#xa0;%-28.55&#xa0;%), and people living in humid area (ER=18.98&#xa0;%, 95&#xa0;%CI: 15.08&#xa0;%-23.02&#xa0;%) had higher mortality risks than their counterparts. Mortality burden attributed to CHDEs significantly increased during historical observation and became stable since mid-21st century in China.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: CHDEs would significantly increase mortality with higher risk for females, the elderly and people living in humid areas. Mortality burden has significantly increased during historical observation and will keep relatively steady since mid-21st century.}, }
@article {pmid39215932, year = {2024}, author = {Malik, IH and Ford, JD}, title = {Monitoring climate change vulnerability in the Himalayas.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39215932}, issn = {1654-7209}, abstract = {Longitudinal assessment of climate vulnerability is essential for understanding the complex factors affecting how people experience and respond to climate change. We report on the first longitudinal assessment of climate vulnerability in the Himalayan region, exploring the evolving landscape, perceptions, and experiences of communities of climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Kashmir over an 8-year period from 2017 to 2024. We provide the Himalayan Re-study Framework (HRF) to monitor, characterise, and conceptualise climate change in the Himalayas. Utilising mixed methods, we showcase how climate change is affecting social, economic, political, and environmental dimensions, examining how the impacts of climate change and vulnerability evolve over time, shaping and reshaping how climate risks are experienced and responded to by communities. Our analysis reveals a nuanced understanding of vulnerability, highlighting the impact on communities' livelihoods and water security, differential impacts on marginalised communities, and the gendered nature of climate change. We examine how certain sections of the population face marginalisation, discrimination, and racism, and how climate change exacerbates these challenges. Kashmir's vulnerability to climate change extends beyond environmental factors, intertwining with culture, livelihoods, social dynamics, and politics. Climate change continues to compete for attention with immediate political and socio-economic challenges, highlighting the need for integrated approaches to address both environmental and societal issues in Kashmir.}, }
@article {pmid39215837, year = {2024}, author = {Dorji, T and Rinchen, K and Morrison-Saunders, A and Blake, D and Banham, V and Pelden, S}, title = {Understanding How Indigenous Knowledge Contributes to Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience: A Systematic Literature Review.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39215837}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing the world today threatening societies and the future of the planet. The impacts of climate change are more severe in poor and marginalised populations like Indigenous communities where people rely heavily on their Indigenous Knowledge (IK) to adapt to the changing environment. Climate change adaptation and resilience are critical for the survival of Indigenous communities under the threat of climate change. This systematic literature review seeks to understand how IK contributes to climate change adaptation and resilience. A total of 71 papers from Scopus were analysed using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method. It investigated three research questions: (i) How is IK understood in climate change studies? (ii) What kind of IK is used to address climate change and enhance adaptation and resilience? and finally, (iii) What could be done to maximise the use of IK towards enhancing climate adaptation and resilience? The study found that Indigenous people use IK to predict extreme climatic conditions, prepare for it, and live through it making use of Indigenous adaptation strategies in multiple manifestations. The solutions to maximise the benefits of IK promote two dominant themes requiring more research on IK and climate change with diverse focus areas and the need to bridge it with scientific knowledge. This review provides a starting point for such research that will draw upon IK to enhance climate adaptation and resilience towards meaningful sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid39214233, year = {2024}, author = {Jibon, MJN and Ruku, SMRP and Islam, ARMT and Khan, MN and Mallick, J and Bari, ABMM and Senapathi, V}, title = {Impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases: Exploring hotspots, recent trends and future outlooks in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {259}, number = {}, pages = {107373}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107373}, pmid = {39214233}, issn = {1873-6254}, abstract = {Climate change is a significant risk multiplier and profoundly influences the transmission dynamics, geographical distribution, and resurgence of vector-borne diseases (VBDs). Bangladesh has a noticeable rise in VBDs attributed to climate change. Despite the severity of this issue, the interconnections between climate change and VBDs in Bangladesh have yet to be thoroughly explored. To address this research gap, our review meticulously examined existing literature on the relationship between climate change and VBDs in Bangladesh. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach, we identified 3849 records from SCOPUS, Web of Science, and Google Scholar databases. Ultimately, 22 research articles meeting specific criteria were included. We identified that the literature on the subject matter of this study is non-contemporaneous, with 68% of studies investing datasets before 2014, despite studies on climate change and dengue nexus having increased recently. We pinpointed Dhaka and Chittagong Hill Tracts as the dengue and malaria research hotspots, respectively. We highlighted that the 2023 dengue outbreak illustrates a possible shift in dengue-endemic areas in Bangladesh. Moreover, dengue cases surged by 317% in 2023 compared to 2019 records, with a corresponding 607% increase in mortality compared to 2022. A weak connection was observed between dengue incidents and climate drivers, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). However, no compelling evidence supported an association between malaria cases, and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Bay of Bengal, along with the NINO3 phenomenon. We observed minimal microclimatic and non-climatic data inclusion in selected studies. Our review holds implications for policymakers, urging the prioritization of mitigation measures such as year-round surveillance and early warning systems. Ultimately, it calls for resource allocation to empower researchers in advancing the understanding of VBD dynamics amidst changing climates.}, }
@article {pmid39215441, year = {2024}, author = {Bruckner, TA and Trinh, NTH and Lelong, N and Madani, K and Slama, R and Given, J and Khoshnood, B}, title = {Climate Change and Congenital Anomalies: A Population-Based Study of the Effect of Prolonged Extreme Heat Exposure on the Risk of Neural Tube Defects in France.}, journal = {Birth defects research}, volume = {116}, number = {9}, pages = {e2397}, doi = {10.1002/bdr2.2397}, pmid = {39215441}, issn = {2472-1727}, mesh = {Humans ; *Neural Tube Defects/etiology/epidemiology ; Female ; France/epidemiology ; Pregnancy ; *Climate Change ; *Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Adult ; Risk Factors ; Male ; Infant, Newborn ; Registries ; Congenital Abnormalities/epidemiology/etiology ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Exposure to long-lasting extreme ambient temperatures in the periconceptional or early pregnancy period might increase the risk of neural tube defects (NTDs). We tested whether prolonged severe heat exposure as experienced during the 2003 extreme heatwave in France, affected the risk of NTDs.<br><br>METHODS: We retrieved NTD cases spanning from January 1994 to December 2018 from the Paris Registry of Congenital Malformations. The 2003 heatwave was characterized by the long duration and high intensity of nine consecutive days with temperatures &#x2265;35&#xb0;C. We classified monthly conceptions occurring in August 2003 as "exposed" to prolonged extreme heat around conception (i.e., periconceptional period). We assessed whether the risk of NTDs among cohorts exposed to the prolonged severe heatwave of 2003 in the periconceptional period differed from expected values using Poisson/negative binomial regression.<br><br>FINDINGS: We identified 1272 NTD cases from January 1994 to December 2018, yielding a monthly mean count of 4.24. Ten NTD cases occurred among births conceived in August 2003. The risk of NTD was increased in the cohort with periconceptional exposure to the August 2003 heatwave (relative risk&#x2009;=&#x2009;2.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.46 to 3.13), compared to non-exposed cohorts. Sensitivity analyses excluding July and September months or restricting to summer months yielded consistent findings.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Evidence from the "natural experiment" of an extreme climate event suggests an elevated risk of NTDs following exposure to prolonged extreme heat during the periconceptional period.}, }
@article {pmid39215241, year = {2024}, author = {Iqbal, S and Karia, A and Kamming, D and Herron, D and O'Shea, L and Vindrola-Padros, C}, title = {Anaesthesia and climate change: time to wake up? A rapid qualitative appraisal exploring the views of anaesthetic practitioners regarding the transition to TIVA and the reduction of desflurane.}, journal = {BMC anesthesiology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {300}, pmid = {39215241}, issn = {1471-2253}, support = {MR/W029766/1//BMBR MRC grant/ ; NIHR204297//NIHR Central London Patient Safety Research Collaboration (CL PSRC)/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Desflurane ; *Climate Change ; *Anesthetics, Inhalation ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; Anesthesia, Intravenous ; Anesthesiologists ; Qualitative Research ; Male ; Female ; London ; Anesthesiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The National Health Service (NHS) has pledged to reach carbon net-zero by 2040. In alignment with this goal, a London hospital's anaesthesia department is actively reducing desflurane use and transitioning towards total intravenous anaesthesia (TIVA) as a sustainable alternative, contributing to environmentally responsible practices within the healthcare sector.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a rapid qualitative appraisal through online interviews with 17 anaesthetic practitioners to explore their perspectives regarding this climate change mitigation strategy. Data analysis was undertaken through the use of rapid appraisal sheets and a framework analysis method.<br><br>RESULTS: Participants highlighted the disadvantages of TIVA, including the increased effort, heightened monitoring requirements, operational challenges, and a lack of clinical confidence associated with its use. Despite these reservations, participants acknowledged TIVA's potential to reduce postoperative nausea. There were perceptions that senior staff members might resist this change due to habits and scepticism over its impact on climate change. To facilitate greater TIVA adoption, participants recommended enhanced training, the implementation of a dashboard to raise awareness of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the presence of strong climate change leadership within the department. Participants believed that a shift to TIVA should be followed by specific measures such as addressing waste management which is crucial for GHG reduction, emphasising the perceived link between waste and emissions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The evaluation examines stakeholder attitudes, perceptions, and behaviours, focusing on transitioning from desflurane to TIVA. The study highlights the importance of staff engagement, organisational support, and underscores the crucial role that healthcare practitioners and leadership play in fostering sustainability within the healthcare sector.}, }
@article {pmid39214060, year = {2024}, author = {Nona, F}, title = {Traditional community-based knowledge for envisioning climate change action for the Torres Strait.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {48}, number = {5}, pages = {100182}, doi = {10.1016/j.anzjph.2024.100182}, pmid = {39214060}, issn = {1753-6405}, }
@article {pmid39213845, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, X and Liu, J and Afthanorhan, A and Hao, Y}, title = {Heating up the divide: Climate change and the quest for inclusive growth in urban China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {369}, number = {}, pages = {122269}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122269}, pmid = {39213845}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change has profoundly affected human production and development, and also brought new challenges to China's goal of achieving inclusive economic growth. Using the data of 273 cities in China from 2001 to 2019, this research evaluates the impact of climate change on urban inclusive economic growth by constructing a temperature bin variable according to the daily average temperature. It is found that with the temperature bin [18 °C, 21 °C) as the benchmark group, both temperature rise and fall have a negative influence on inclusive economic growth. Notably, the adverse effects of high temperatures (above 27 °C) are statistically and economically significant, exhibiting a trend of increasing magnitude. The mechanism test shows that high temperature affects the inclusive growth level of the urban economy mainly by exacerbating the urban‒rural income gap. The heterogeneity analysis found that cities located in hot regions, southern regions or coastal areas are more sensitive to high temperatures and experience more prominent effects. This research holds significant practical implications for China to achieve a win‒win situation of balanced economic development and climate governance.}, }
@article {pmid39213284, year = {2024}, author = {Banu, B and Akter, N and Sheba, NH and Chowdhury, SH}, title = {Knowledge and implementation behavior towards mitigation initiatives of climate change: Community settings approach of Bangladesh context followed cross-sectional design.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {e0307898}, pmid = {39213284}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Bangladesh ; Female ; Male ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Adult ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Middle Aged ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; }, abstract = {Bangladesh experiences different types of natural disasters almost every year which adversely affect human health. It is very essential to identify knowledge and implementation behavior as mitigation initiatives towards climate change in community settings of Bangladesh. This study was designed to explore this issue. It was an analytical type of cross-sectional study which was conducted among 450 adult people residing in Barisal district of Bangladesh. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews using semi-structured questionnaire included socio-demographic information, knowledge and implementation behavior regarding mitigation initiatives towards climate change. Bivariate and multivariate techniques were adopted to analyze the data. The outcome reflected that a large proportion of the respondents had poor knowledge (55.1%) and poor implementation behavior (52.0%) on mitigation initiatives towards climate change. Poor knowledge was significantly more prominent among the people who were male (AOR = 1.56), Muslim (AOR = 2.55), respondents with >4 family members (AOR = 1.91) and with >3 children (AOR = 1.64) showed higher odds of poor knowledge. Poor implementation behavior was found significantly more leading among the female (AOR = 2.91), service-holder (AOR = 1.92) participants having higher monthly family incomes (AOR = 2.91), who had <1 child (AOR = 2.70), belonging ≤4 number of family members (AOR = 30.09). An alarming proportion of poor knowledge and implementation behavior were found regarding mitigation initiatives towards climate change in community settings of Bangladesh. Concerning demographic major predictors, it is essential to plan and implement sustainable and comprehensive health promotional program on climate change mitigation throughout the country.}, }
@article {pmid39212586, year = {2024}, author = {Dougherty, PJ and Carling, MD}, title = {Go west, young bunting: recent climate change drives rapid movement of a Great Plains hybrid zone.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/evolut/qpae118}, pmid = {39212586}, issn = {1558-5646}, abstract = {Describing how hybrid zones respond to anthropogenic influence can illuminate how the environment regulates both species distributions and reproductive isolation between species. In this study, we analyzed specimens collected from the Passerina cyanea x P. amoena hybrid zone between 2004 and 2007 and between 2019 and 2021 to explore changes in genetic structure over time. This comparison follows a previous study that identified a significant westward shift of the Passerina hybrid zone during the latter half of the twentieth century. A second temporal comparison of hybrid zone genetic structure presents unique potential to describe finer-scale dynamics and to identify potential mechanisms of observed changes more accurately. After concluding that the westward movement of the Passerina hybrid zone has accelerated in recent decades, we investigated potential drivers of this trend by modeling the influence of bioclimatic and landcover variables on genetic structure. We also incorporated eBird data to determine how the distributions of P. cyanea and P. amoena have responded to recent climate and landcover changes. We found that the distribution of P. cyanea in the northern Great Plains has shifted west to track a moving climatic niche, supporting anthropogenic climate change as a key mediator of introgression in this system.}, }
@article {pmid39212212, year = {2024}, author = {Asemaninejad, A and Mackinnon, T and Langley, S}, title = {Biogeochemical stability of organic covers and mine wastes under climate change simulated mesocosms.}, journal = {Canadian journal of microbiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1139/cjm-2024-0064}, pmid = {39212212}, issn = {1480-3275}, abstract = {Mine environments in boreal and sub-boreal zones are expected to experience extreme weather events, increases in temperature, and shifts in precipitation patterns. Climate change impacts on geochemical stability of tailings contaminants and reclamation structures have been identified as important climate-related challenges to Canadian mining sector. Adapting current reclamation strategies for climate change will improve long-term efficiency and viability of mine tailings remediation/restoration strategies under a changing climate. Accordingly, mesocosm experiments were conducted to investigate associations of climate-driven shifts in microbial communities and functions with changes in the geochemistry of organic covers and underlying tailings. Our results show that warming appears to significantly reduce C:N of organic cover and promote infiltration of nitrogen into deeper, unoxidized strata of underlying tailings. We also observed an increase in the abundance of some nitrate reducers and sulfide oxidizers in microbial communities in underlying tailings. These results raise the concern that warming might trigger oxidation of sulfide minerals (linked to nitrate reduction) in deeper unoxidized strata where the oxygen has been eliminated. Therefore, it would be necessary to have monitoring programs to track functionality of covers in response to climate change conditions. These findings have implications for development of climate resilient mine tailings remediation/restoration strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39210948, year = {2024}, author = {Heinz, A and Brandt, L}, title = {Climate change and mental health: direct, indirect, and intersectional effects.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Europe}, volume = {43}, number = {}, pages = {100969}, pmid = {39210948}, issn = {2666-7762}, }
@article {pmid39210514, year = {2024}, author = {Ul Haq, I and Khan, M and Khan, I}, title = {Phytopathological management through bacteriophages: enhancing food security amidst climate change.}, journal = {Journal of industrial microbiology &amp; biotechnology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jimb/kuae031}, pmid = {39210514}, issn = {1476-5535}, abstract = {The increasing global population and climate change pose significant challenges to agriculture, particularly in managing plant diseases caused by phytopathogens. Traditional methods, including chemical pesticides and antibiotics, have become less effective due to pathogen resistance and environmental concerns. Phage therapy emerges as a promising alternative, offering a sustainable and precise approach to controlling plant bacterial diseases without harming beneficial soil microorganisms. This review explores the potential of bacteriophages as biocontrol agents, highlighting their specificity, rapid multiplication, and minimal environmental impact. We discuss the historical context, current applications, and prospects of phage therapy in agriculture, emphasizing its role in enhancing crop yield and quality. Additionally, the paper examines the integration of phage therapy with modern agricultural practices and the development phage cocktails and genetically engineered phages to combat resistant pathogens. The findings suggest that phage therapy could revolutionize phytopathological management, contributing to global food security and sustainable agricultural practices.}, }
@article {pmid39210192, year = {2024}, author = {Mehta, MM and Johnson, AE and Ratnakaran, B and Seritan, I and Seritan, AL}, title = {Climate Change and Aging: Implications for Psychiatric Care.}, journal = {Current psychiatry reports}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39210192}, issn = {1535-1645}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We reviewed recent evidence regarding the impact of climate change (specifically, high ambient temperatures, heatwaves, weather-related disasters, and air pollution) on older adults' mental health. We also summarized evidence regarding other medical problems that can occur in aging adults in connection with climate change, resulting in psychiatric manifestations or influencing psychopharmacological management.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Older adults can experience anxiety, depressive, and/or posttraumatic stress symptoms, as well as sleep disturbances in the aftermath of climate disasters. Cognitive deficits may occur with exposure to air pollutants, heatwaves, or post-disaster. Individuals with major neurocognitive disorders and/or preexisting psychiatric illness have a higher risk of psychiatric hospitalizations after exposure to high temperatures and air pollution. There is a growing body of research regarding psychiatric clinical presentations associated with climate change in older adults. However, there is a paucity of evidence on management strategies. Future research should investigate culturally appropriate, cost-effective psychosocial and pharmacological interventions.}, }
@article {pmid39209172, year = {2024}, author = {Luo, Y and Ma, N and Zhang, Y and Zang, C and Szilagyi, J and Tian, J and Wang, L and Xu, Z and Tang, Z and Wei, H}, title = {Response of alpine vegetation function to climate change in the Tibetan Plateau: A perspective from solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175845}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175845}, pmid = {39209172}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Vegetation change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a crucial indicator of climate change in alpine regions. Previous studies have reported an overall greening trend in the vegetation structure across the TP, especially in its northeastern part, in response to a warming climate. However, variations in the vegetation function and the possible drivers remain poorly understood. Considering the optimal temperature for plants in TP is usually higher than the current temperature, our hypothesis is the function and structure of alpine vegetation have changed synchronously over past few decades. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed satellite-observed solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and leaf area index (LAI) in the Yellow River source (YRS) region in the northeastern TP to quantify the long-term trends in vegetation functional and structural states, respectively. The results suggest that from 1982 to 2018, SIF increased significantly in 77.71 % of the YRS area, resulting in a significant upward trend of 0.52 × 10[-3] mW m[-2] nm[-1] sr[-1] yr[-1] (p < 0.001) for the regional-mean SIF. This represents a 16.1 % increase in SIF, which is close in magnitude to the increase in LAI over the same period. The synchronous changes between vegetation function and structure suggest that improved greenness corresponds to a similar level of change in carbon uptake across YRS. Additionally, we used a multiple regression approach to quantify the contribution of climatic factors to SIF changes in YRS. Our analyses show that the increases in SIF were primarily driven by rising temperatures. Spatially, temperature dominated SIF changes in most parts of YRS, except for certain dry parts in the northern and western YRS, where precipitation had a greater impact. Our results are crucial for a comprehensive understanding of climate regulations on vegetation structure and function in high-elevation regions.}, }
@article {pmid39208748, year = {2024}, author = {Wilson, TS and Selmants, PC and Boynton, RM and Thorne, JH and Van Schmidt, ND and Thomas, TA}, title = {Will there be water? Climate change, housing needs, and future water demand in California.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {369}, number = {}, pages = {122256}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122256}, pmid = {39208748}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change in California is expected to alter future water availability, impacting water supplies needed to support future housing growth and agriculture demand. In groundwater-dependent regions like California's Central Coast, new land-use related water demand and decreasing recharge is already stressing depleted groundwater basins. We developed a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model that integrates climate, land-use change, water demand, and groundwater gain-loss to examine the impact of future climate and land use change on groundwater balance and water demand in five counties along the Central Coast from 2010 to 2060. The model incorporated downscaled groundwater recharge projections based on a Warm/Wet and a Hot/Dry climate future from a spatially explicit hydrological process-based model. Two urbanization projections from a parcel-based, regional urban growth model representing 1) recent historical and 2) state-mandated housing growth projections were used as alternative spatial targets for future urban growth. Agricultural projections were based on recent historical trends from remote sensing data. Annual projected changes in groundwater balance were calculated as the difference between land-use related water demand, based on historical estimates, and climate-driven recharge plus agriculture return flows. Results indicate that future changes in climate-driven groundwater recharge, coupled with cumulative increases in agricultural water demand, result in overall declines in future groundwater balance, with a Hot/Dry future resulting in cumulative groundwater decline in all but Santa Cruz County. Cumulative declines by 2060 are especially prominent in San Luis Obispo (-2.9 to -5.1 Bm[3]) and Monterey counties (-6.5 to -8.7 Bm[3]), despite limited changes in agricultural water demand over the model period. These two counties show declining groundwater reserves in a Warm/Wet future as well, while San Benito and Santa Barbara County barely reach equilibrium. These results suggest future groundwater supplies may not be able to keep pace with regional demand and declining climate-driven recharge, resulting in a potential reduction in water security in the region. However, our county-scale projections showed new housing and associated water demand does not conflict with California's groundwater sustainability goals. Rather, future climate coupled with increasing agricultural groundwater demand may reduce water security in some counties, potentially limiting available groundwater supplies for new housing.}, }
@article {pmid39206497, year = {2024}, author = {Shah, SH and Ragavan, MI}, title = {Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Child Health: A Call to Action.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1542/peds.2024-067391}, pmid = {39206497}, issn = {1098-4275}, }
@article {pmid39206454, year = {2024}, author = {Barboza, E and Bravo, N and Cotrina-Sanchez, A and Salazar, W and Gálvez-Paucar, D and Gonzales, J and Saravia, D and Valqui-Valqui, L and Cárdenas, GP and Ocaña, J and Cruz-Luis, J and Arbizu, CI}, title = {Modeling the current and future habitat suitability of Neltuma pallida in the dry forest of northern Peru under climate change scenarios to 2100.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {e70158}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.70158}, pmid = {39206454}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The development of anthropic activities and climate change effects impact worldwide species' ecosystems and habitats. Habitats' adequate prediction can be an important tool to assess current and future trends. In addition, it allows strategies development for their conservation. The Neltuma pallida of the forest region in northern Peru, although very significant, has experienced a decline in recent years. The objective of this research is to evaluate the current and future distribution and conservation status of N. pallida in the Peruvian dry forest under climate change (Location: Republic of Peru). A total of 132 forest presence records and 10 variables (bioclimatic, topographic, and soil) were processed and selected to obtain the current and future distribution for 2100, using Google Earth Engine (GEE), RStudio, and MaxEnt. The area under the curve values fell within the range of 0.93-0.95, demonstrating a strong predictive capability for both present and future potential habitats. The findings indicated that the likely range of habitats for N. pallida was shaped by factors such as the average temperature of wettest quarter, maximum temperature of warmest month, elevation, rainfall, and precipitation of driest month. The main suitable areas were in the central regions of the geographical departments of Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque, as well as in the northern part of La Libertad. It is critical to determine the habitat suitability of plant species for conservation managers since this information stimulates the development of policies that favor sustainable use programs. In addition, these results can contribute significantly to identify new areas for designing strategies for populations conserving and recovering with an ecological restoration approach.}, }
@article {pmid39205430, year = {2024}, author = {Chakraborty, N and Halder, S and Keswani, C and Vaca, J and Ortiz, A and Sansinenea, E}, title = {New Aspects of the Effects of Climate Change on Interactions Between Plants and Microbiomes: A Review.}, journal = {Journal of basic microbiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e2400345}, doi = {10.1002/jobm.202400345}, pmid = {39205430}, issn = {1521-4028}, support = {//This study was funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation on the Young Scientist Laboratory within the framework of the Interregional Scientific and Educational Center of the South of Russia, Grant/Award Number FENW-2024-0001 and Strategic Academic Leadership Program of the Southern Federal University ("Priority 2030")./ ; }, abstract = {One of the most talked about issues of the 21st century is climate change, as it affects not just our health but also forestry, agriculture, biodiversity, the ecosystem, and the energy supply. Greenhouse gases are the primary cause of climate change, having dramatic effects on the environment. Climate change has an impact on the function and composition of the terrestrial microbial community both directly and indirectly. Changes in the prevailing climatic conditions brought about by climate change will lead to modifications in plant physiology, root exudation, signal alteration, and the quantity, makeup, and diversity of soil microbial communities. Microbiological activity is very crucial in organic production systems due to the organic origin of microorganisms. Microbes that benefit crop plants are known as plant growth-promoting microorganisms. Thus, the effects of climate change on the environment also have an impact on the abilities of beneficial bacteria to support plant growth, health, and root colonization. In this review, we have covered the effects of temperature, precipitation, drought, and CO2 on plant-microbe interactions, as well as some physiological implications of these changes. Additionally, this paper highlights the ways in which bacteria in plants' rhizosphere react to the dominant climatic conditions in the soil environment. The goal of this study is to analyze the effects of climate change on plant-microbe interactions.}, }
@article {pmid39204772, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, B and Li, Y and Zhao, J and Weng, H and Ye, X and Liu, S and Zhao, Z and Ahmad, S and Zhan, C}, title = {The Potential Habitat Response of Cyclobalanopsis gilva to Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {16}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants13162336}, pmid = {39204772}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {KJZXSA2018008//State Forestry and Grassland Administration/ ; }, abstract = {Cyclobalanopsis gilva, a valuable timber species in China, holds significant importance for understanding the constraints imposed by climate change on the dynamic geographic distribution of tree species. This study utilized the MaxEnt maximum entropy model to reconstruct the migratory dynamics of C. gilva geographical distribution since the Last Glacial Maximum. The objective was to comprehend the restrictive mechanisms of environmental factors on its potential geographical distribution, aiming to provide insights for mid-to-long-term afforestation planning of C. gilva. The optimized MaxEnt model exhibited a significantly high predictive accuracy, with an average AUC value of 0.949 ± 0.004 for the modern suitable habitat model of C. gilva. The total suitable habitat area for C. gilva in contemporary times was 143.05 × 10[4] km[2], with a highly suitable habitat area of 3.14 × 10[4] km[2]. The contemporary suitable habitat was primarily located in the southeastern regions of China, while the highly suitable habitat was concentrated in eastern Fujian and central-eastern Taiwan. Bioclimatic variables such as mean diurnal range (Bio2), min temperature of coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) predominantly influenced the modern geographic distribution pattern of C. gilva, with temperature factors playing a leading role. With global climate warming, there is a risk of fragmentation or even loss of suitable habitat for C. gilva by 2050 and 2090. Therefore, the findings of this study can significantly contribute to initiating a habitat conservation campaign for this species.}, }
@article {pmid39204720, year = {2024}, author = {Xing, Y and Wang, X}, title = {Impact of Agricultural Activities on Climate Change: A Review of Greenhouse Gas Emission Patterns in Field Crop Systems.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {16}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants13162285}, pmid = {39204720}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2023LLRH-01//Shanxi Province Key Special Project for the Fusion of "Two Chains"/ ; }, abstract = {This review paper synthesizes the current understanding of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from field cropping systems. It examines the key factors influencing GHG emissions, including crop type, management practices, and soil conditions. The review highlights the variability in GHG emissions across different cropping systems. Conventional tillage systems generally emit higher levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) than no-till or reduced tillage systems. Crop rotation, cover cropping, and residue management can significantly reduce GHG emissions by improving soil carbon sequestration and reducing nitrogen fertilizer requirements. The paper also discusses the challenges and opportunities for mitigating GHG emissions in field cropping systems. Precision agriculture techniques, such as variable rate application of fertilizers and water, can optimize crop production while minimizing environmental impacts. Agroforestry systems, which integrate trees and crops, offer the potential for carbon sequestration and reducing N2O emissions. This review provides insights into the latest research on GHG emissions from field cropping systems and identifies areas for further study. It emphasizes the importance of adopting sustainable management practices to reduce GHG emissions and enhance the environmental sustainability of agricultural systems.}, }
@article {pmid39200702, year = {2024}, author = {Zavala, MD and Cejas, C and Rubinstein, A and Lopez, A}, title = {Gender Inequities in the Impact of Climate Change on Health: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph21081093}, pmid = {39200702}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Female ; Male ; Sex Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {In the 21st century, climate change has emerged as a critical global public health challenge. Women experience the most severe impacts of climate change, intensifying pre-existing gender inequalities. This scoping review aims to explore the intersection of climate change, health, and gender, considering the social determinants of health. The methods for this review follow the Arksey and O'Malley framework for a scoping review and the PRISMA-ScR checklist. The review, covering January 2019 to February 2024, included PubMed, LILACS, and SciELO databases. We identified 71 studies with 19 meeting the inclusion criteria. The results revealed the differential effects of climate change on health according to gender in areas such as mental health, reproductive health, gender-based violence, occupational health, and health issues associated with heat and air pollution. Our findings also elucidated how socio-economic and gender inequities intersect, exacerbating the risk of experiencing these effects. In conclusion, the study highlights a clear need for gender-sensitive climate policies and interventions to address these disparities and protect vulnerable populations from the health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39199941, year = {2024}, author = {Pius, L and Huang, S and Wanjala, G and Bagi, Z and Kusza, S}, title = {African Local Pig Genetic Resources in the Context of Climate Change Adaptation.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {16}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani14162407}, pmid = {39199941}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Africa is home to a wide diversity of locally adapted pig breeds whose genetic architecture offers important insights into livestock adaptation to climate change. However, the majority of these inherent traits have not been fully highlighted. This review presents an overview of the current state of African pig genetic resources, providing highlights on their population and production statistics, production system, population diversity indices, and genomic evidence underlying their evolutionary potential. The study results reveal an incomplete characterization of local pig genotypes across the continent. The characterized population, however, demonstrates moderate to high levels of genetic diversity, enough to support breeding and conservation programs. Owing to low genetic differentiation and limited evidence of distinct population structures, it appears that most local pig populations are strains within larger breeds. Genomic evidence has shown a higher number of selection signatures associated with various economically important traits, thus making them potential candidates for climate change adaptation. The reportedly early evidence of hybridization with wild suid groups further suggests untapped insights into disease resistance and resilience traits that need to be illuminated using higher-density markers. Nevertheless, gene introgression from commercial breeds is prevalent across Africa; thus, efforts to realize and utilize these traits must increase before they are permanently depleted.}, }
@article {pmid39199834, year = {2024}, author = {Liao, W and Cao, S and Jiang, Y and Shao, W and Zhao, L and Yan, C}, title = {Predicting Conservation Status of Testudoformes under Climate Change Using Habitat Models.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {16}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani14162300}, pmid = {39199834}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Climate change promotes variations in distribution ranges, potentially leading to biodiversity loss and increased extinction risks for species. It is crucial to investigate these variations under future climate change scenarios for effective biodiversity conservation. Here, we studied the future distribution ranges of 268 Testudoformes species under climate change using habitat models, specifically species distribution models (SDMs), to assess their conservation status. Our results have indicated that over half of species are projected to experience declines in their potential distribution ranges under two scenarios. In particular, we found that three critically endangered species-Three-striped roofed turtle (Batagur dhongoka), Durango mud turtle (Kinosternon durangoense), and Colombian mud turtle (Kinosternon dunni)-displayed extraction of their distribution ranges and faced extinction under global climate change. Additionally, our analysis revealed that the potential distribution ranges of some species might increase under future climate scenarios. However, these findings must be interpreted with caution as they do not account for other significant factors such as biological invasions, population structure, land-use change, anthropogenic disturbances, and inter-organism interrelationships. Future studies should incorporate these factors to provide a more comprehensive assessment of extinction risks. Our findings suggest that climate change, in conjunction with habitat degradation and human activities, must be considered when assessing the extinction risks of Testudoformes.}, }
@article {pmid39194788, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, J and Wei, X and Wang, Z and Peng, Y and Liu, B and Zhuo, Z}, title = {Mapping the Distribution of Curculio davidi Fairmaire 1878 under Climate Change via Geographical Data and the MaxEnt Model (CMIP6).}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {39194788}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {20A007//China West Normal University/ ; 20E051//China West Normal University/ ; 21E040//China West Normal University/ ; 22kA011//China West Normal University/ ; }, abstract = {Curculio davidi is a major pest in chestnut-producing regions in China, and there have been many studies on its occurrence, biological characteristics, and management strategies. However, few of them have focused on the distribution changes of the pest under climate change. In this study, the MaxEnt model (version 3.3.4) and ArcGIS software (version 10.8) were first employed to map the current and future (2050 s and 2080 s) suitable habitat distribution of the weevil under climate change (CMIP 6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the highly suitable areas for C. davidi are mainly concentrated in Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, the coastal areas of Shandong, and eastern Guizhou, northwestern Hunan, and northeastern Sichuan provinces in China. Through the Jackknife test of 19 climate factors, six climate factors affecting the distribution of C. davidi were identified, with precipitation from July (Prec7), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18), and temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (Bio4) contributing a combined percentage of 86.3%. Under three different climate scenarios (CMIP 6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), the area of moderately suitable regions is projected to increase by 22.12-27.33% in the 2050 s and by 17.80-38.22% in the 2080 s compared to the current distribution, while the area of highly suitable regions shows a shrinking trend. This study provides data support for the management strategies of C. davidi and offers new insights into the dynamic changes of similar forestry pests.}, }
@article {pmid39194763, year = {2024}, author = {Song, Z and Fan, G and Deng, C and Duan, G and Li, J}, title = {Predicting the Distribution of Neoceratitis asiatica (Diptera: Tephritidae), a Primary Pest of Goji Berry in China, under Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {39194763}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2024-ZJ-981//Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province/ ; 2022-QNY-7//the Youth Research Fund of Qinghai University/ ; 2023-NKY-03//Innovation Fund of Qinghai Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Climate warming affects the growth and development of pests, resulting in changes in their geographical distribution, which increases the difficulty in terms of prevention and control. The fruit fly, Neoceratitis asiatica (Becker), is a predominant frugivorous pest that causes serious yield loss in the goji berry, Lycium barbarum L. In recent years, with the expansion of cultivation area, the damage induced by the pest has become increasingly severe, significantly impeding the production of the goji berry. In this study, the potential suitable habitats of N. asiatica under current and future climate scenarios were simulated and predicted using the optimal MaxEnt model, based on the screening distribution records and environmental factors. The changes in the pest distribution under climate change were determined using ArcGIS. The results showed that the best combination of parameters for MaxEnt were feature combination (FC) = LQPT and regularization multiplier (RM) = 1. The dominant environmental factors influencing pest distribution were mean temperature of driest quarter, mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation of coldest quarter. Under different climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the pest primarily ranged between 27°-47° N and 73°-115° E. Under current climate conditions, the area of moderately and highly suitable habitats was 42.18 × 10[4] km[2], and mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia (13.68 × 10[4] km[2]), Gansu (9.40 × 10[4] km[2]), Ningxia (5.07 × 10[4] km[2]), Qinghai (4.10 × 10[4] km[2]), and Xinjiang (3.97 × 10[4] km[2]) Provinces. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was projected to be lower than the current ones, except SSP245-2050s and SSP370-2070s, and the centroids of suitable habitats were mainly shifted to the northeast, except SSP370-2050s and SSP585-2070s. Our results provide valuable guidance for the monitoring and management of N. asiatica, as well as the selection of pest-free goji berry cultivation sites.}, }
@article {pmid39192567, year = {2024}, author = {Miryeganeh, M and Armitage, DW}, title = {Epigenetic responses of trees to environmental stress in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/brv.13132}, pmid = {39192567}, issn = {1469-185X}, support = {JPMJFR224G//JST FOREST (Fusion Oriented REsearch for disruptive Science and Technology)/ ; JP23K11509//JSPS KAKENHI/ ; //Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University/ ; }, abstract = {In long-lived tree populations, when environmental change outpaces rates of evolutionary adaptation, plasticity in traits related to stress tolerance, dormancy, and dispersal may be vital for preventing extinction. While a population's genetic background partly determines its ability to adapt to a changing environment, so too do the many types of epigenetic modifications that occur within and among populations, which vary on timescales orders of magnitude faster than the emergence of new beneficial alleles. Consequently, phenotypic plasticity driven by epigenetic modification may be especially critical for sessile, long-lived organisms such as trees that must rely on this plasticity to keep pace with rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While studies have reported large effects of DNA methylation, histone modification, and non-coding RNAs on the expression of stress-tolerance genes and resulting phenotypic responses, little is known about the role of these effects in non-model plants and particularly in trees. Here, we review new findings in plant epigenetics with particular relevance to the ability of trees to adapt to or escape stressors associated with rapid climate change. Such findings include specific epigenetic influences over drought, heat, and salinity tolerance, as well as dormancy and dispersal traits. We also highlight promising findings concerning transgenerational inheritance of an epigenetic 'stress memory' in plants. As epigenetic information is becoming increasingly easy to obtain, we close by outlining ways in which ecologists can use epigenetic information better to inform population management and forecasting efforts. Understanding the molecular mechanisms behind phenotypic plasticity and stress memory in tree species offers a promising path towards a mechanistic understanding of trees' responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39190767, year = {2024}, author = {Li, F and Mu, Q and Ma, D and Wu, Q}, title = {Predicting the potential global distribution of Ixodes pacificus under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {e0309367}, pmid = {39190767}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ixodes/physiology ; Animal Distribution ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In order to predict the global potential distribution range of Ixodes pacificus (I. pacificus) under different climate scenario models in the future, analyze the major climate factors affecting its distribution, and provide references for the transformation of passive vector surveillance into active vector surveillance, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used in this study to estimate the global potential distribution range of I. pacificus under historical climate scenarios and different future climate scenarios. The global distribution data of I. pacificus were screened by ENMtools and ArcGIS 10.8 software, and a total of 563 distribution data of I. pacificus were obtained. Maxent 3.4.1 and R 4.0.3 were used to screen climate variables according to the contribution rate of environmental variables, knife cutting method and correlation analysis of variables. R 4.0.3 was used to calculate model regulation frequency doubling and feature combination to adjust MaxEnt parameters. The model results showed that the training omission rate was in good agreement with the theoretical omission rate, and the area under ROC curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.978. Among the included environmental variables, the Tmin2 (minimum temperature in February) and Prec1 (precipitation in January) contributed the most to the model, providing more effective information for the distribution of I. pacificus. MaxEnt model revealed that the distribution range of I. pacificus was dynamically changing. The main potential suitable areas are distributed in North America, South America, Europe, Oceania and Asia. Under the future climate scenario model, the potential suitable areas show a downward trend, but the countries and regions ieeeeeeenvolved in the suitable areas do not change much. Therefore, the invasion risk of the potential suitable area of I. pacificus should be paid attention to.}, }
@article {pmid39188066, year = {2024}, author = {Lima, JS and Lenoir, J and Hylander, K}, title = {Potential migration pathways of broadleaved trees across the receding boreal biome under future climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {e17471}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17471}, pmid = {39188066}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Bolin Centre for Climate Research/ ; CTS19: 148//Carl Tryggers Stiftelse f&#xf6;r Vetenskaplig Forskning/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Trees/growth &amp; development ; Sweden ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Biodiversity ; Models, Theoretical ; Plant Dispersal ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has triggered poleward expansions in the distributions of various taxonomic groups, including tree species. Given the ecological significance of trees as keystone species in forests and their socio-economic importance, projecting the potential future distributions of tree species is crucial for devising effective adaptation strategies for both biomass production and biodiversity conservation in future forest ecosystems. Here, we fitted physiographically informed habitat suitability models (HSMs) at 50-m resolution across Sweden (55-68° N) to estimate the potential northward expansion of seven broadleaved tree species within their leading-edge distributions in Europe under different future climate change scenarios and for different time periods. Overall, we observed that minimum temperature was the most crucial variable for comprehending the spatial distribution of broadleaved tree species at their cold limits. Our HSMs projected a complex range expansion pattern for 2100, with individualistic differences among species. However, a frequent and rather surprising pattern was a northward expansion along the east coast followed by narrow migration pathways along larger valleys towards edaphically suitable areas in the north-west, where most of the studied species were predicted to expand. The high-resolution maps generated in this study offer valuable insights for our understanding of range shift dynamics at the leading edge of southern tree species as they expand into the receding boreal biome. These maps suggest areas where broadleaved tree species could already be translocated to anticipate forest and biodiversity conservation adaptation efforts in the face of future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39187712, year = {2024}, author = {Većkalov, B and Geiger, SJ and Bartoš, F and White, MP and Rutjens, BT and van Harreveld, F and Stablum, F and Akın, B and Aldoh, A and Bai, J and Berglund, F and Bratina Zimic, A and Broyles, M and Catania, A and Chen, A and Chorzępa, M and Farahat, E and Götz, J and Hoter-Ishay, B and Jordan, G and Joustra, S and Klingebiel, J and Krajnc, &#x17d; and Krug, A and Andersen, TL and Löloff, J and Natarajan, D and Newman-Oktan, S and Niehoff, E and Paerels, C and Papirmeister, R and Peregrina, S and Pohl, F and Remsö, A and Roh, A and Rusyidi, B and Schmidt, J and Shavgulidze, M and Vellinho Nardin, V and Wang, R and Warner, K and Wattier, M and Wong, CY and Younssi, M and Ruggeri, K and van der Linden, S}, title = {A 27-country test of communicating the scientific consensus on climate change.}, journal = {Nature human behaviour}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39187712}, issn = {2397-3374}, support = {#2218595//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Communicating the scientific consensus that human-caused climate change is real increases climate change beliefs, worry and support for public action in the United States. In this preregistered experiment, we tested two scientific consensus messages, a classic message on the reality of human-caused climate change and an updated message additionally emphasizing scientific agreement that climate change is a crisis. Across online convenience samples from 27 countries (n = 10,527), the classic message substantially reduces misperceptions (d = 0.47, 95% CI (0.41, 0.52)) and slightly increases climate change beliefs (from d = 0.06, 95% CI (0.01, 0.11) to d = 0.10, 95% CI (0.04, 0.15)) and worry (d = 0.05, 95% CI (-0.01, 0.10)) but not support for public action directly. The updated message is equally effective but provides no added value. Both messages are more effective for audiences with lower message familiarity and higher misperceptions, including those with lower trust in climate scientists and right-leaning ideologies. Overall, scientific consensus messaging is an effective, non-polarizing tool for changing misperceptions, beliefs and worry across different audiences.}, }
@article {pmid39187251, year = {2024}, author = {Lee, EY and Park, S and Kim, YB and Lee, M and Lim, H and Ross-White, A and Janssen, I and Spence, JC and Tremblay, MS}, title = {Exploring the Interplay Between Climate Change, 24-Hour Movement Behavior, and Health: A Systematic Review.}, journal = {Journal of physical activity &amp; health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-19}, doi = {10.1123/jpah.2023-0637}, pmid = {39187251}, issn = {1543-5474}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Given the emergence of climate change and health risks, this review examined potential relationships between varying indicators of climate change, movement behaviors (ie, physical activity [PA], sedentary behavior, and sleep), and health.<br><br>METHODS: Seven databases were searched in March 2020, April 2023, and April 2024. To be included, studies must have examined indicators of climate change and at least one of the movement behaviors as either an exposure or a third variable (ie,&#xa0;mediator/moderator), and a measure of health as outcome. Evidence was summarized by the role (mediator/moderator) that either climate change or movement behavior(s) has with health measures. Relationships and directionality of each association, as well as the strength and certainty of evidence were synthesized.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 79 studies were eligible, representing 6,671,791 participants and 3137 counties from 25 countries (40% low- and middle-income countries). Of 98 observations from 17 studies that examined PA as a mediator, 34.7% indicated that PA mediated the relationship between climate change and health measure such that indicators of adverse climate change were associated with lower PA, and worse health outcome. Of 274 observations made from 46 studies, 28% showed that PA favorably modified the negative association between climate change and health outcome. Evidence was largely lacking and inconclusive for sedentary behavior and sleep, as well as climate change indicators as an intermediatory variable.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: PA may mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on health. Further evidence is needed to integrate PA into climate change mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39187083, year = {2024}, author = {Nogueira, GP and Petrielli, GP and Chagas, MF and de Souza Henzler, D and de Mesquita Sampaio, IL and Bonomi, AM and Junqueira, TL and de Morais, ER and Hernandes, TAD}, title = {Supplying the ethanol demand for 2030 in Brazil as a land-based climate change mitigation alternative: Implications on greenhouse gases emissions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {951}, number = {}, pages = {175782}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175782}, pmid = {39187083}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Transitioning from a fossil-based to a bio-based economy is crucial to climate action and achieving neutrality in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Biofuel production is an essential land-based GHG mitigation alternative. However, it raises concerns about biodiversity conservation, competition with food production, and net GHG emissions associated with direct land-use change (dLUC). This study aims to assess how the location and conversion routes influence GHG emissions for sugarcane expansion in Brazil to supply ethanol demand projections for 2030. A consistent and significant reduction in GHG emissions is achievable by implementing a strategy that prioritizes the spatial distribution for ethanol biorefinery expansions based on georeferenced life cycle emissions, including dLUC emissions associated with sugarcane production. Because of conservative zoning for sugarcane expansion, dLUC emissions are not an overriding factor, representing less than 9.1 % of the total GHG mitigation potential. Despite that, accounting for georeferenced dLUC emissions when prioritizing expansion facilities leads to spatial differences. Regarding conversion routes and land requirements, using cellulosic biorefineries could meet future projected demand based on sugarcane production from 3.1 million hectares, mostly in currently degraded pastureland. Conventional refineries would require 5.5 million hectares to meet the same demand of 71 billion liters. Despite the 77 % higher land demand to produce the same volume of ethanol, conventional refineries with straw recovery could be considered if electricity generation is a priority. This study illustrates how Brazil can achieve GHG mitigation targets while attending to future energy demand and protecting areas with high biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid39186462, year = {2024}, author = {Schmidt, S}, title = {More than Mortality: Heat, Climate Change, and Injury-Related Hospitalization in China.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {132}, number = {8}, pages = {84002}, pmid = {39186462}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hospitalization/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Wounds and Injuries/mortality ; }, }
@article {pmid39185636, year = {2024}, author = {Aunan, K and Orru, H and Sjödin, H}, title = {Perspectives on connecting climate change and health.}, journal = {Scandinavian journal of public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {14034948241269748}, doi = {10.1177/14034948241269748}, pmid = {39185636}, issn = {1651-1905}, abstract = {Over the past century, the Earth's climate has undergone rapid and unprecedented changes, manifested in a noticeable increase in average global temperature. This has led to shifts in precipitation patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events (e.g. hurricanes, heatwaves, droughts and floods), alterations in ecosystems, and rising sea levels, impacting both natural environments and human societies, health and wellbeing. Without deep and urgent emission cuts and effective adaptation, the toll of climate change on human health and wellbeing is likely to grow. Here, we address the complex relationship between climate change and health, and discuss ways forward for transdisciplinary research and collaboration that can motivate more ambitious mitigation policies and help develop solutions to adapt to the crisis.}, }
@article {pmid39185584, year = {2024}, author = {Shrikhande, SS and Lakshmanasamy, R and Röösli, M and Dalvie, MA and Utzinger, J and Cissé, G}, title = {A review of climate change and cardiovascular diseases in the Indian policy context.}, journal = {Health policy and planning}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/heapol/czae076}, pmid = {39185584}, issn = {1460-2237}, support = {//Joint South Africa and Swiss Chair in Global Environmental Health/ ; 801076//Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant through the SSPH+ Global PhD Fellowship Programme in Public Health Sciences (GlobalP3HS) of the Swiss School of Public Health/ ; }, abstract = {There is growing evidence that climate change adversely affects human health. Multiple diseases are sensitive to climate change, including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), which are also the leading cause of death globally. Countries such as India face a compounded challenge, with a growing burden of CVDs and a high vulnerability to climate change, requiring a co-ordinated, multi-sectoral response. In this framework synthesis, we analysed whether and how CVDs are addressed with respect to climate change in the Indian policy space. We identified 10 relevant national-level policies, which were analysed using the framework method. Our analytical framework consisted of four themes: (i) political commitment; (ii) health information systems; (iii) capacity building; and (iv) cross-sectoral actions. Additionally, we analysed a subset of these policies and 29 state-level climate change and health action plans using content analysis to identify health priorities. Our analyses revealed a political commitment in addressing the health impacts of climate change; however, CVDs were poorly contextualized with most of the efforts focusing on vector-borne and other communicable diseases, despite their recognized burden. Heat-related illnesses and cardiopulmonary diseases were also focused on but failed to encompass the most climate-sensitive aspects. CVDs are insufficiently addressed in the existing surveillance systems, despite being mentioned in several policies and interventions, including emergency preparedness in hospitals and cross-sectoral actions. CVDs are mentioned as a separate section in only a small number of state-level plans, several of which need an impetus to complete and include CVD-specific sections. We also found several climate-health policies for specific diseases, albeit not for CVDs. This study identified important gaps in India's disease-specific climate change response and might aid policy makers in strengthening future versions of these policies and boost research and context-specific interventions on climate change and CVDs.}, }
@article {pmid39184222, year = {2024}, author = {Malboeuf-Hurtubise, C and Lefrançois, D and Éthier, MA and Smith, J and Léger-Goodes, T and Herba, CM}, title = {Exploring children's despair in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Communications psychology}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {78}, pmid = {39184222}, issn = {2731-9121}, abstract = {Interventions targeting children's eco-anxiety have focused on fostering hope, however this is disconnected from children's need to explore and express despair regarding the climate crisis. Adults can help by acknowledging and discussing these emotions with children.}, }
@article {pmid39184084, year = {2024}, author = {Akorli, R and Antwi-Agyei, P and Davies, P and Damsere-Derry, J and Baffour-Ata, F and Nakua, E and Donkor, P and Mock, C}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Road Traffic Crashes in Ghana.}, journal = {Research square}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.21203/rs.3.rs-4654960/v1}, pmid = {39184084}, issn = {2693-5015}, abstract = {Despite the substantial injuries and fatalities from Road Traffic Crashes (RTCs), evidence of climate change's impact on RTCs in Ghana is lacking. This study assessed the impact of climate change on RTCs in Ghana by combining quantitative (Mann-Kendall trend tests, Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis, causal inference analysis) and qualitative (15 key stakeholder interviews) methods. The quantitative analysis employed monthly rainfall and temperature data (1991-2021) alongside RTC data (1998-2021) across 10 regions. While rainfall trends varied regionally, the wet season (April through mid-October) showed a strong link to crash severity for all regions across Ghana. Wavelet analysis showed higher crash severity in the wet season within every 2-8 months period in a particular annual year during the study period. Causal inference analysis revealed rainfall's stronger influence (3.59%) on fatal crashes during the wet season compared to temperature (0.04%). Key stakeholder interviews highlighted perceived changes in temperature and intense rainfall patterns affecting RTCs, especially during rainy seasons suggesting an association between increased rainfall and crash severity. These findings emphasize the multifaceted role of climate change on road safety and the need to address weather-specific risks.}, }
@article {pmid39183892, year = {2024}, author = {Li, Y and Wang, Y and Zhao, C and Du, X and He, P and Meng, F}, title = {Predicting the spatial distribution of three Ephedra species under climate change using the MaxEnt model.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {e32696}, pmid = {39183892}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {In the context of global warming, the habitats of Ephedra, including Ephedra sinica Stapf, Ephedra intermedia Schrenk ex Mey, and Ephedra equisetina Bunge, have been substantially threatened and deteriorated in recent years. Little is known about the potential geographic dynamics of economically renowned species, including those used in sand fixation and traditional Chinese medicine, under climate change. Therefore, evaluating their potential habitat and determining the crucial environmental variables affecting E. sinica, E. intermedia and E. equisetina under the driving force of global warming are extremely important. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model in the kuenm package on the basis of occurrence records (a total of 103, 101 and 97 points for E. sinica, E. intermedia and E. equisetina, respectively) and 37 environmental factors were utilized to simulate the distribution of the three species. Two representative concentration pathways (SSP2.6 and SSP8.5) at 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, respectively, were used to establish a future distribution model of the three species. The results indicated that approximately 6.92 × 10[5] km[2], 2.95 × 10[5] km[2], and 11.5 × 10[5] km[2] of suitable regions for E. sinica, E. intermedia and E. equisetina were obtained, which were mostly distributed in central and eastern Inner Mongolia, eastern and southern Gansu, and northern Xinjiang, respectively. Critical environmental variables, such as land cover and annual precipitation, were regarded as critical parameters for the three species. Future assessment revealed that over 60 % of the potential distribution area was affected, and the stability of E. sinica under the SSP8.5 scenario was the greatest. The spatial dynamic changes in suitable areas for E. intermedia were smaller than those for E. equisetina and E. sinica in the future. The comprehensive analysis revealed that the fluctuations in the distributions of the three Ephedra species under climate change are small and provide useful information for future conservation. Therefore, target conservation and management measures should be implemented in combination with the suitability thresholds of different environmental parameters. Our results provide useful recommendations for the current and future protection of Ephedra populations.}, }
@article {pmid39182788, year = {2024}, author = {Gröger, M and Börgel, F and Karsten, S and Meier, HEM and Safonova, K and Dutheil, C and Receveur, A and Polte, P}, title = {Future climate change and marine heatwaves - Projected impact on key habitats for herring reproduction.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175756}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175756}, pmid = {39182788}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study explores the impact of global climate targets on sea surface temperatures and marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Baltic Sea. We further evaluate potential adverse climate effects on the reproductive success of the western Baltic Sea (WBS) herring stock, which underwent a dramatic decline during the past two decades. For this, we use refined ensemble climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For the WBS herring spawning ground, the number of MHW days nearly triples from 34 days/year in the historical period, to 102 days/year already under the optimistic 1.5 °C target of global climate warming (Paris, 2015) and further increases at a rate of 36 to 48 [days yr[-1]]/0.5 °C beyond the 1.5 °C target. The average MHW surface extent more than doubles in the 1.5 °C target from ~8 % to 21 % in this area. This study finds the phenological winter climate considerably altered in response to future global warming and more frequent MHW days in the WBS. The winter duration reduces by ~25 % already in the 2.0 °C target but ~60 % in the 4.0 °C target compared to the historical climate. Winter inceptions/terminations occur successively later/earlier and the share of missed winters, i.e. winters unsuitable to support herring reproductive success, increases by up to ~70 %. Days with heat stress on the cardiac function of herring larvae will likewise increase and occur earlier in the year. Consequently, the early life cycle of herring will face more often winter conditions that were unprecedented during the historical past, and the risk for future reproductive failure will increase. However, our results reveal that abiotic disturbances for the marine ecosystem can be partly mitigated if global warming remains compliant with the 1.5 °C target.}, }
@article {pmid39182775, year = {2024}, author = {Gharakhanlou, NM and Perez, L}, title = {From data to harvest: Leveraging ensemble machine learning for enhanced crop yield predictions across Canada amidst climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175764}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175764}, pmid = {39182775}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Accurate crop yield predictions are crucial for farmers and policymakers. Despite the widespread use of ensemble machine learning (ML) models in computer science, their application in crop yield prediction remains relatively underexplored. This study, conducted in Canada, aims to assess the potential of five distinct ensemble ML models-Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), XGBoost, LightGBM, and Random Forest (RF)-in predicting crop yields chosen for their ability to manage complex datasets and their strong performance potential. The study integrated various factors, including climate variables, satellite-derived vegetation indices, soil characteristics, and honeybee census data. Data preparation comprised two main steps: first, climate variables were interpolated and averaged for croplands in ArcGIS Pro, along with averaging vegetation indices and soil characteristics. Honeybee census data was also incorporated. Second, the data was organized in Python to create a structured format for models' input. The models' accuracy was assessed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), R-squared, and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). XGBoost emerged as the most accurate model, with the lowest MAE (68.70 for canola and 39.47 for soybeans), lowest RMSE (119.48 for canola and 102.39 for soybeans), and highest R-squared values (0.95 for canola and 0.96 for soybeans) on the test dataset. The study also assessed crop yields under various climate change scenarios, finding minimal variations across the scenarios, but significant negative impacts on canola and soybean yields across Canada. Honeybee colonies were identified as the most influential factor on crop yields, contributing 52.34 % to canola and 57.18 % to soybean yields. This research provides detailed crop yield maps of canola and soybeans at the Census Consolidated Subdivisions (CCS) level across Canada's agricultural landscape, offering valuable forecasts for localized decision-making. Additionally, it offers a proactive strategy for climate change preparedness, assisting farmers and stakeholders optimise resource allocation and manage risks effectively.}, }
@article {pmid39182427, year = {2024}, author = {Yoldi-Achalandabaso, A and Fricke, W and Miranda-Apodaca, J and Vicente, R and Muñoz-Rueda, A and Pérez-López, U}, title = {Climate change does not impact the water flow of barley at the vegetative stage, ameliorates at anthesis and worsens after subsequent drought episodes.}, journal = {Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB}, volume = {215}, number = {}, pages = {109060}, doi = {10.1016/j.plaphy.2024.109060}, pmid = {39182427}, issn = {1873-2690}, abstract = {Climate change will bring the interaction of stresses such as increased temperature and drought under high [CO2] conditions. This is likely to impact on crop growth and productivity. This study aimed to (i) determine the response of barley water relations to vegetative and anthesis drought periods under triple interaction conditions, (ii) test the possibility to prime barley plants for drought, and (iii) analyse the involvement of aquaporins in (i) and (ii). The water status of barley was not affected by drought at the vegetative stage, regardless of the environmental conditions. At the anthesis stage, when the water shortage period was more severe, barley plants growing under combined elevated CO2 and temperature conditions were able to maintain a better water status compared with plants grown under current conditions. Elevated CO2 and temperature conditions reduced the stomatal conductance and slowed down the plant water flow through a root-leaf hydraulic conductivity coordination. Leaf HvPIP2;1 and HvTIP1;1 aquaporins seemed to play a key role regulating barley's water flow, while leaf and root HvPIP2;5 provided basic level of water flow. At anthesis drought and under future combined conditions, plants showed a reduced cell dehydration and decrease in leaf relative water content compared with plants grown under current conditions. Exposure to a previous drought did not prime the water status of barley plants to a subsequent drought, but instead worsened the response under future conditions. This was due to an imbalance between the roots versus shoot development.}, }
@article {pmid39182122, year = {2024}, author = {Abou Jaoude, J and Obeid, S and Malaeb, D and Sakr, F and Dabbous, M and El Khatib, S and Hallit, S and Fekih-Romdhane, F and Hallit, R}, title = {The moderating effect of religiosity between climate change anxiety and death anxiety among a sample of Lebanese adults.}, journal = {BMC psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {453}, pmid = {39182122}, issn = {2050-7283}, mesh = {Humans ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; *Anxiety/psychology/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Middle Aged ; *Attitude to Death ; Young Adult ; Lebanon ; Religion and Psychology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Aged ; Adolescent ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Acknowledging the increasing worry over climate change and its psychological effects, the aim of this research is to clarify the dynamics between religiosity, climate anxiety and death anxiety, seeking to figure out the way religiosity mitigates the psychological effects of existential anxieties and climate related anxiety.<br><br>METHODS: Using Google Forms, a questionnaire was developed and disseminated through a variety of messaging platforms, such as WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook Messenger. Through a snowball sampling technique, 763 participants were recruited in this cross-sectional during September 2023.<br><br>RESULTS: The subsequent variables were adjusted in the moderation analysis: age, gender, and place of living. The results suggested that religiosity levels moderated the association between climate anxiety and death anxiety (Beta&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.02, t&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.97, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;.05, 95% CI 0.001, 0.035). At low, moderate, and high levels of religiosity, higher climate anxiety was significantly associated with more death anxiety. In addition, at low levels of climate anxiety, individuals with higher levels of religiosity (22.66) had more decreased levels of death anxiety compared to those with lower levels of religiosity (11.99). As climate anxiety levels increase, inverted patterns can be observed, with highly religious individuals showing higher levels of death anxiety than those with lower levels of religiosity. Overall, the relationship between climate anxiety and death anxiety was found to be weakest at low levels of religiosity and strongest at high levels of religiosity.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest a possible beneficial effect of high religiosity at low levels of climate anxiety. This effect is reversed as climate anxiety starts to increase. Therefore, clinicians and policy-makers should bear in mind these complex interactions when designing strategies to mitigate mental health problems in the context of climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid39181814, year = {2024}, author = {Vergara, R and Del Castillo, M and Ginestet, F and Chouvel, R and , }, title = {[In the face of climate change, is a relevant and sustainable eco-pathology in France possible?].}, journal = {Annales de pathologie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.annpat.2024.07.004}, pmid = {39181814}, issn = {0242-6498}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The healthcare sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 8 % of annual French emissions. Eco-design in healthcare, which provides care with equal quality, safety, and relevance but with a lower environmental impact, is therefore a crucial lever for sustainable medical practice. This article explores the application of eco-design in anatomical and cytopathological practices (ACP) in France, in response to the country's decarbonization goals.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: After demonstrating that decarbonization is possible through the chosen eco-design of care and practices in ACP, we describe the barriers to these changes and the potential real-world solutions.<br><br>DISCUSSION: We examine the challenges and solutions for integrating eco-design principles into daily ACP practice, highlighting the importance of the relevance of medical procedures to reduce unnecessary practices. We discuss the technical and human barriers in ACP, as well as the solutions: raising awareness among laboratory personnel, industrial stakeholders, research and innovation, the involvement of scientific societies, and initiatives from the collective for Ecological Transformation in ACP (TEAP). Finally, we propose financial incentives to make eco-friendly practices economically viable in ACP.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Eco-design in ACP practices is essential to address the climate challenge and ensure the sustainability of the healthcare system.}, }
@article {pmid39181511, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, B and Zhang, P and Qi, X and Li, G and Zhang, J}, title = {Predicting ammonia emissions and global warming potential in composting by machine learning.}, journal = {Bioresource technology}, volume = {411}, number = {}, pages = {131335}, doi = {10.1016/j.biortech.2024.131335}, pmid = {39181511}, issn = {1873-2976}, abstract = {The amounts of gases emitted from composting are key to evaluating global warming potential (GWP). However, few methods can accurately predict the quantities of relevant gas emissions. In this study, three developed machine-learning models were used to predict NH3 emissions and GWP. The extreme gradient boosting model provided the best predictions (R[2] > 90 %) compared to random forest, making it a suitable method for calculating NH3 emissions and GWP. The k-nearest neighbor classification model was utilized to determined compost maturity achieving 92 % accuracy. Shapley Additive ExPlanation analysis was applied to identify key factors influencing gas emissions and maturity. Aeration rate, carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and moisture content showed high importance in decreasing order for predicting NH3 emissions, while NO3[-] was the most significant factor for predicting GWP. Practical applications of predictive models suggested that prediction of GWP was 792614 Mg CO2e year[-1] close to annual calculation of 789000 Mg CO2e year[-1] in California.}, }
@article {pmid39181262, year = {2024}, author = {Zarei, A and Madani, K and Guenther, E and Nasrabadi, HM and Hoff, H}, title = {Integrated nexus approach to assessing climate change impacts on grassland ecosystem dynamics: A case study of the grasslands in Tanzania.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175691}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175691}, pmid = {39181262}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study addresses the intricate interplay between climate, vegetation, and livestock dynamics in Tanzania within the Climate-Vegetation-Livestock (CVL) nexus through a quantitative assessment. By examining the temporal and spatial relationships between vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, NPP) and key climatic variables (Precipitation, Temperature, Evapotranspiration) from 2009 to 2019, and projecting to 2050, this research aims to elucidate vegetation responses to climate change and its subsequent impacts on livestock. To this end, the relationship between the vegetation dynamics indicators (NDVI, NPP) and climate parameters is evaluated to quantify the vegetation response to climate change using statistical models. Next, an examination of multicollinearity is conducted to investigate potential interactions (nexus) between variables, incorporating the correlation among independent variables. Notably, the evaluation of performance and accuracy for the mentioned models is conducted through the cross-validation method and validation indices. Ultimately, the variation between projected NPP and NDVI (average for 2040-2060) and the present NPP and NDVI (average for 2009-2020) identifies the regions that are most likely susceptible, showcasing the vegetation cover's reaction to climate change in different emission scenarios. The results unveil significant spatio-temporal variations in vegetation dynamics influenced by climatic factors, where higher precipitation and temperatures correlate with increased vegetation health and productivity. The projected fluctuations in NDVI and NPP values indicate varying trends across different regions, with a general decrease in vegetation density and productivity from the northeast to the west under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios by 2050. This decline is attributed to anticipated changes in precipitation and temperature patterns driven by climate change. Furthermore, significant declines in vegetation density and productivity under emission scenarios, particularly in the southern regions compared to the present, suggest greater vulnerability to climate change impacts. This highlights the need for targeted mitigation strategies in these vulnerable areas. Meanwhile, northeast areas under both NDVI and NPP will remain unchanged across both climate scenarios. Moreover, analysis of livestock distribution maps indicates areas of vulnerability under climate change scenarios, with implications for future livestock management and agricultural practices. These findings underscore the importance of proactive planning and targeted interventions to enhance resilience and sustainable development in vulnerable regions, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches that consider the complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and livestock dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid39181248, year = {2024}, author = {Jakovljević, M and Đuretanović, S and Kojadinović, N and Nikolić, M and Petrović, A and Simović, P and Simić, V}, title = {Assessing spirlin Alburnoides bipunctatus (Bloch, 1782) as an early indicator of climate change and anthropogenic stressors using ecological modeling and machine learning.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175723}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175723}, pmid = {39181248}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Combining single-species ecological modeling with advanced machine learning to investigate the long-term population dynamics of the rheophilic fish spirlin offers a powerful approach to understanding environmental changes and climate shifts in aquatic ecosystems. A new ESHIPPOClim model was developed by integrating climate change assessment into the ESHIPPO model. The model identifies spirlin as a potential early indicator of environmental changes, highlighting the interactive effects of climate change and anthropogenic stressors on fish populations and freshwater ecosystems. The ESHIPPOClim model reveals that 28.72 % of the spirlin's data indicates high resilience and ecological responsiveness, with 34.92 % showing medium-high adaptability, suggesting its substantial ability to withstand environmental stressors. With 36.51 % of the data in medium level and no data in the low category, spirlin may serve as a sentinel species, providing early warnings of environmental stressors before they severely impact other species or ecosystems. The results of uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) and a decision tree show that pollution has the highest impact on the population dynamics of spirlin, followed by annual water temperature, overexploitation, and invasive species. Despite the obtained key drivers, higher abundance, dominance, and frequency values were detected in habitats with higher HIPPO stressors and climate change effects. Integrating state-of-the-art machine learning models has enhanced the predictive power of the ESHIPPOClim model, achieving approximately 90 % accuracy in identifying spirlin as an early indicator of climate change and anthropogenic stressors. The ESHIPPOClim model offers a holistic approach with broad practical applications using a simplified 3-point scale, adaptable to various fish species, communities, and regions. The ecological modeling supported with advanced machine learning could serve as a foundation for rapid and cost-effective management of aquatic ecosystems, revealing the adaptability potential of fish species, which is crucial in rapidly changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid39179044, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, W and Liu, Z and Wei, X and He, S and Gao, W and Wang, X}, title = {Feasibility analysis of using short-term rainfall time series to evaluate rainwater harvesting systems considering climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {951}, number = {}, pages = {175668}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175668}, pmid = {39179044}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Employing recent short-term historical rainfall data may enhance the performance of rainwater harvesting systems (RWHs) in response to climate change. However, this assumption lacks extensive research, and the evaluation of RWHs currently relies on long-term historical rainfall time series. This study evaluates the feasibility of this assumption and aims to identify the optimal rainfall time series for evaluating RWH performance under climate change. We evaluated RWHs in residential buildings across 16 Japanese cities utilizing historical rainfall time series of varying lengths and 30-year predicted rainfall time series. The minimum rainfall time series length was obtained based on the similarity index between the evaluation results for historical and future periods. The corresponding optimal series can be determined from the distribution of similarity indices in the minimum length. Finally, we introduce supply pressure indices (SPIs) to summarize the rainfall characteristics of these optimal rainfall time series. Our findings highlight that the minimum rainfall time series length increased from 1 year to 30 years as building non-potable water demand rose and city locations varied. Utilizing rainfall time series incorporating recent rainfall data yielded more dependable evaluation results for RWHs under climate change. These optimal rainfall time series share common characteristics with SPIs ranging from 5.37 to 17.87 mm/d, contingent on the local rainfall patterns. Our study concludes that utilizing recent short-term historical rainfall data is feasible to evaluate and design RWHs under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39178631, year = {2024}, author = {Gong, H and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Zhang, S and Liu, X and Che, J and Wu, S and Wu, J and Sun, X and Zhang, S and Yau, ST and Wu, R}, title = {Topological change of soil microbiota networks for forest resilience under global warming.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {50}, number = {}, pages = {228-251}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2024.08.001}, pmid = {39178631}, issn = {1873-1457}, abstract = {Forest management by thinning can mitigate the detrimental impact of increasing drought caused by global warming. Growing evidence shows that the soil microbiota can coordinate the dynamic relationship between forest functions and drought intensity, but how they function as a cohesive whole remains elusive. We outline a statistical topology model to chart the roadmap of how each microbe acts and interacts with every other microbe to shape the dynamic changes of microbial communities under forest management. To demonstrate its utility, we analyze a soil microbiota data collected from a two-way longitudinal factorial experiment involving three stand densities and three levels of rainfall over a growing season in artificial plantations of a forest tree - larix (Larix kaempferi). We reconstruct the most sophisticated soil microbiota networks that code maximally informative microbial interactions and trace their dynamic trajectories across time, space, and environmental signals. By integrating GLMY homology theory, we dissect the topological architecture of these so-called omnidirectional networks and identify key microbial interaction pathways that play a pivotal role in mediating the structure and function of soil microbial communities. The statistical topological model described provides a systems tool for studying how microbial community assembly alters its structure, function and evolution under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39175776, year = {2024}, author = {Vanin, E and Manes, C and Mattozzi, A and Giordana, L and Rispoli, M and Andorno, M and Amadio, S}, title = {Theater as a means of communicating research on climate change: The case of "Cambiare il clima".}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {110384}, pmid = {39175776}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Between 2018 and 2023, the Department of Environmental, Land and Infrastructure Engineering (DIATI) at the Polytechnic University of Turin (PoliTo) implemented a project to advance research and education on climate change monitoring, adaptation and mitigation solutions. As part of their communication efforts, DIATI partnered with Faber Teater to create the play "Cambiare il clima" (in Italian, this means "Change the Climate"). This involved a collaboration between DIATI researchers, communication officers, and Faber Teater. The documentary theater that resulted was premiered at Biennale Tecnologia in 2020 and performed at various venues in Northern Italy, targeting both the general public and students.}, }
@article {pmid39175598, year = {2024}, author = {Bucciarelli, V and Moscucci, F and Cocchi, C and Nodari, S and Sciomer, S and Gallina, S and Mattioli, AV}, title = {Climate change versus Mediterranean diet: A hazardous struggle for the women's heart.}, journal = {American heart journal plus : cardiology research and practice}, volume = {45}, number = {}, pages = {100431}, pmid = {39175598}, issn = {2666-6022}, abstract = {Climate change impacts food systems, causing nutritional deficiencies and increasing cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Regulatory frameworks like the European Farm-to-Fork Strategy aim to mitigate these effects, but current EU food safety regulations inadequately address health risks from poor diet quality and contaminants. Climate change adversely affects food quality, such as nutrient depletion in crops due to higher CO2 levels, leading to diets that promote chronic diseases, including CVD. Women, because of their roles in food production and their unique physiological responses to nutrients, face distinct vulnerabilities. This review explores the interplay between climate change, diet, and cardiovascular health in women. The review highlights that sustainable diets, particularly the Mediterranean diet, offer health benefits and lower environmental impacts but are threatened by climate change-induced disruptions. Women's adherence to the Mediterranean diet is linked to significant reductions in CVD risk, though sex-specific responses need further research. Resilient agricultural practices, efficient water management, and climate-smart farming are essential to mitigate climate change's negative impacts on food security. Socio-cultural factors influencing women's dietary habits, such as traditional roles and societal pressures, further complicate the picture. Effective interventions must be tailored to women, emphasizing education, community support, policy changes, and media campaigns promoting healthy eating. Collaborative approaches involving policymakers, health professionals, and the agricultural sector are crucial for developing solutions that protect public health and promote sustainability. Addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change to food quality and cardiovascular health in women underscores the need for integrated strategies that ensure food security, enhance diet quality, and mitigate environmental impacts.}, }
@article {pmid39175371, year = {2024}, author = {Lockie, S and Graham, V and Taylor, B and Baresi, U and Maclean, K and Paxton, G and Vella, K}, title = {Conceptualizing social risk in relation to climate change and assisted ecosystem adaptation.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.17635}, pmid = {39175371}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {RRAP-ENG-01//Great Barrier Reef Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Realizing positive social and environmental outcomes from assisted ecosystem adaptation requires the management of complex, uncertain, and ambiguous risks. Using assisted coral reef adaptation as a case study, this article presents a conceptual framework that defines social impacts as the physical and cognitive consequences for people of planned intervention and social risks as potential impacts transformed into objects of management through assessment and governance. Reflecting on its multiple uses in the literature, we consider "social risk" in relation to risks to individuals and communities, risks to First Peoples, risks to businesses or project implementation, possibilities for amplified social vulnerability, and risk perceptions. Although much of this article is devoted to bringing clarity to the different ways in which social risk manifests and to the multiple characters of risk and uncertainty, it is apparent that risk governance itself must be an inherently integrative and social process.}, }
@article {pmid39174280, year = {2024}, author = {O'Dowd, A}, title = {Climate change: Paediatricians call for education to be built into doctors' training.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {386}, number = {}, pages = {q1854}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q1854}, pmid = {39174280}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Pediatricians/education ; Pediatrics/education ; }, }
@article {pmid39173761, year = {2024}, author = {Shao, Y and Liu, Y and Wang, X and Li, S}, title = {Exploring the evolution of ecosystem health and sustainable zoning: A perspective based on the contributions of climate change and human activities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {951}, number = {}, pages = {175674}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175674}, pmid = {39173761}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Maintaining ecosystem health (EH) in watersheds is crucial for building a national pattern of ecological security. However, a comprehensive diagnosis of watershed EH and an exploration of its driving mechanisms are still lacking. This study proposed an EH assessment model from a vitality-organization-resilience-service-environment (VORSE) perspective. Taking the Yellow River Basin of Shaanxi Province (YRBS), China, as a research object, the spatiotemporal evolution trend of EH from 2000 to 2020 was quantified. At the same time, we also quantified the respective contributions of climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) to the EH dynamics based on residual analysis. The results showed that EH in the YRBS increased by 11.80 % from 2000 to 2020, and the spatial distribution of the EH was higher in the southern region than in the northern part. At the pixel scale, areas with improving trends accounted for 90.57 % of the YRBS, while 9.43 % deteriorated, with the improving areas mainly in northern Shaanxi and the deteriorating areas in the Guanzhong region. The correlation between the EH and precipitation was primarily positive, while the correlation between the EH and temperature was mainly negative. The residual analysis showed that the contribution rate of CC to EH changes was 78.54 %, while that of HA was 21.46 %, indicating that CC was the dominant driver of EH changes in the YRBS. Specifically, 82.64 % of the improvement in EH was attributed to CC and 17.36 % to HA. Conversely, 65.30 % of the deterioration in EH was attributed to CC and 34.70 % to HA. Furthermore, CC, HA, and CC&amp;HA dominated EH changes in 26.85 %, 3.77 %, and 69.38 % of the YRBS area, respectively. In addition, the Hurst exponent analysis identified six types of future EH development scenarios, each requiring different restoration strategies. This study provides valuable insights for future EH diagnosis, EH restoration efforts, and the formulation of sustainable development goals in other watersheds.}, }
@article {pmid39171421, year = {2024}, author = {Titcomb, G and Uelmen, J and Janko, M and Nunn, C}, title = {Infectious disease responses to human climate change adaptations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {e17433}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17433}, pmid = {39171421}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {R01-TW011493/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Communicable Diseases/transmission ; Adaptation, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Many recent studies have examined the impact of predicted changes in temperature and precipitation patterns on infectious diseases under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. But these emissions scenarios symbolize more than altered temperature and precipitation regimes; they also represent differing levels of change in energy, transportation, and food production at a global scale to reduce the effects of climate change. The ways humans respond to climate change, either through adaptation or mitigation, have underappreciated, yet hugely impactful effects on infectious disease transmission, often in complex and sometimes nonintuitive ways. Thus, in addition to investigating the direct effects of climate changes on infectious diseases, it is critical to consider how human preventative measures and adaptations to climate change will alter the environments and hosts that support pathogens. Here, we consider the ways that human responses to climate change will likely impact disease risk in both positive and negative ways. We evaluate the evidence for these impacts based on the available data, and identify research directions needed to address climate change while minimizing externalities associated with infectious disease, especially for vulnerable communities. We identify several different human adaptations to climate change that are likely to affect infectious disease risk independently of the effects of climate change itself. We categorize these changes into adaptation strategies to secure access to water, food, and shelter, and mitigation strategies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions. We recognize that adaptation strategies are more likely to have infectious disease consequences for under-resourced communities, and call attention to the need for socio-ecological studies to connect human behavioral responses to climate change and their impacts on infectious disease. Understanding these effects is crucial as climate change intensifies and the global community builds momentum to slow these changes and reduce their impacts on human health, economic productivity, and political stability.}, }
@article {pmid39171263, year = {2024}, author = {Vilela, A and Domizio, P and Morata, A}, title = {Editorial: Microbial modulation to mitigate the impact of climate change on wine production.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1465637}, doi = {10.3389/fmicb.2024.1465637}, pmid = {39171263}, issn = {1664-302X}, }
@article {pmid39170409, year = {2024}, author = {Solaja, S and Kolawole, A and Awe, T and Oriade, O and Ayojimi, W and Ojo, I and Nayan, G and Adedayo, R and Etta-Oyong, S and Olasehinde, F and Asemokhai, O and Nsikak, I}, title = {Assessment of smallholder rice farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change in Kebbi state, Nigeria.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {15}, pages = {e35384}, pmid = {39170409}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The future of food production in Nigeria where smallholding agriculture is prevalent is threatened by climate change. Despite the threats, Nigeria has no specific plan or policy to combat it. Therefore, understanding how smallholder farmers adjust to the changing climate and the factors that influence their adaptation choices will facilitate developing a policy to tackle climate change. This study therefore evaluates climate change adaptation techniques among smallholder rice farmers in Kebbi state, Nigeria. The study employs a simple random sampling technique to select 345 respondents. The data was analysed using multivariate probit and ordered probit regression. The findings revealed that marital status, literacy, farm size, farming experience, major occupation, extension visits, amount of credit, and access to climate information influenced adaptation strategy choice. Furthermore, marital status, literacy, household size, farm size, extension visits, and access to climate information are crucial drivers of adoption intensity. This study concludes that smallholder rice farmers in the study area adopt several practices to cope with climate change, however, farmers' intensity of adoption is low. This study recommends that stakeholders in the food systems in the study area should consider literacy, farm size, extension service, credits, and climate information in designing viable policies toward combating the vagaries of climate.}, }
@article {pmid39170376, year = {2024}, author = {Demir, M&#xd6; and Gök Demir, Z and Karakaya, &#xc7; and Erendağ Sümer, F}, title = {Global warming communicative actions of publics in Türkiye: Utilizing fuzzy rule based system.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {15}, pages = {e35380}, pmid = {39170376}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The effectiveness of government policies and environmental initiatives to mitigate global warming relies heavily on public support, which is closely tied to public perception and awareness. Despite the scientific evidence communicated, the public remains reluctant to take preventive measures against global warming. The aim of the paper is to investigate the communicative actions of publics proposed as in the situational theory of problem solving to understand publics' communicative actions towards global warming. The paper utilizes a fuzzy rule-based system approach to analyze the communicative actions of publics to reveal non-linear relationships; whereas previous studies mostly used linear statistical analysis. The paper provides a deeper understanding into the interplay between problem recognition, constraint recognition, and involvement in shaping information behavior. The results show that the communicative actions of the publics are at a low-to-moderate level. The paper's interesting finding is the nonlinear effects of constraint recognition on communicative action about global warming. Contrary to the current literature, it was found out that the dominant factor that may convince public to start taking action towards global warming seems to be recognizing being constrained at a moderate level. Based on the results, it is suggested for policy makers and communication strategists to mitigate the negative outcomes of global warming by integrating environmental issues into education at all levels and collaborating with non-governmental organizations for national awareness campaigns which focus on increasing public problem recognition and involvement.}, }
@article {pmid39170312, year = {2024}, author = {Adom, PK}, title = {The socioeconomic impact of climate change in developing countries over the next decades: A literature survey.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {15}, pages = {e35134}, pmid = {39170312}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and shifting rainfall patterns pose significant threats to developing countries with fragile social, economic, and political structures. While research has intensified on socioeconomic impacts of climate change, existing survey studies exhibit substantial scope variations and seldom concurrently analyze these impacts, hindering policy coordination. This study reviews literature on the broad spectrum of socioeconomic impacts of climate change to discern trends and underscore areas requiring additional attention. The survey unveils that, across various socioeconomic indicators, the most vulnerable groups bear a disproportionate burden of climate change, with long-term impacts forecasted to surpass medium-term effects. Adaptation and mitigation options are feasible but must be tailored to local contexts.}, }
@article {pmid39170220, year = {2024}, author = {Nagesh, P and Gassmann, M and Eitzinger, J and de Boer, HJ and Edelenbosch, OY and van Vuuren, DP and Dekker, SC}, title = {Modelling the impacts of climate change on agrochemical fate and transport by water on a catchment scale.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {15}, pages = {e35669}, pmid = {39170220}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The export of agrochemicals and their transformation products (TPs) following their application in the agricultural fields poses a threat to water quality. Future changes in climatic conditions (e.g. extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall or extended dry periods) could alter the degradation and mobility of agrochemicals. In this research, we use an integrated modelling framework to understand the impact of extreme climate events on the fate and transport of the agrochemical S-Metolachlor and two of its TPs (M-OXA, Metolachlor Oxanilic Acid and M-ESA, Metolachlor Ethyl Sulfonic Acid). This is done by coupling climate model outputs to the Zin-AgriTra agrochemical reactive transport model in four simulation scenarios. 1) Reference (2015-2018), 2) Very dry (2038-2041), 3) Very wet (2054-2057) and 4) High temperature (2096-2099) conditions of a selected RCP8.5 based regional climate scenario. The modelling framework is tested on an agricultural catchment, Wulka, in Burgenland, Austria. The model results indicate that 13-14 % of applied S-Metolachlor is retained in the soil, and around 85 % is degraded into TPs in the different scenarios. In very dry and high-temperature scenarios, degradation is higher, and hence, there is less S-Metolachlor in the soil. However, a large share of formed M-OXA and M-ESA are retained in the soil, which is transported via overland and groundwater flow, leading to a build-up effect in M-OXA and M-ESA river concentrations over the years. Though a small share of S-Metolachlor and TPs are transported to rivers, their river export is affected by the intensity and amount of rainfall. The very wet and high-temperature scenarios show higher S-Metolachlor and TP concentrations at the catchment outlet due to higher river discharge. The reference scenario shows higher river peak concentrations associated with higher overland flow caused by measured hourly rainfall compared to disaggregated daily precipitation data in the other scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid39170213, year = {2024}, author = {Ullah, N and Chao, L and Khan, TU and Sai, WL and Yazhuo, Z and Khan, IA and Hassan, MA and Hu, Y}, title = {Insights into climate change dynamics: A tourism climate index-based evaluation of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {15}, pages = {e35315}, pmid = {39170213}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The tourism industry is a significant contribution to the economy of many countries, including Pakistan. However, its activities often have a negative impact on the environment, particularly related to climate change. Notably, Pakistan ranks fifth among countries most affected by climate change, which requires a targeted analysis of the tourism sector to determine its potential impacts. Despite the critical nature of this issue, there is currently a lack of research that examines how climate change specifically impacts Pakistan's tourism industry. This study aims to address this gap by using the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) to assess the impact of climate change on the suitability of different tourism locations across the country. Our results show that popular tourist destinations such as Gilgit-Baltistan experience their peak season in the warmer third quarter (summer), which corresponds to the highest observed TCI values. This suggests that warmer temperatures could boost tourism activity and spending in these regions. Furthermore, our analysis shows that air temperature plays a crucial role in determining tourist comfort levels and significantly influences tourists' TCI values and sensory experiences. The results of this study show that the TCI methodology can be an effective tool for further research into the geographical impacts of climate change on tourism. By identifying necessary changes due to climatic changes, future studies could provide valuable insights into how the tourism industry can adapt to and reduce its environmental footprint.}, }
@article {pmid39169175, year = {2024}, author = {Bolinesi, F and Rossetti, E and Mangoni, O}, title = {Phytoplankton dynamics in a shellfish farming lagoon in a deltaic system threatened by ongoing climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {19424}, pmid = {39169175}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Phytoplankton/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Animals ; *Shellfish ; *Biomass ; Bivalvia/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Aquaculture/methods ; Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Rivers/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Global climate change has generated an increasing number of environmental problems, especially in Mediterranean coastal areas, such as the Po Delta (PD), where shellfish production has undergone an overall decline because of strong environmental changes. The present study is centred on assessing the fundamental ecological aspects in one of the most crucial European shellfish production lagoons, Sacca degli Scardovari (SC), addressing phytoplankton community parameters directly affecting shellfish production, namely, chemotaxonomic composition, size fractions, and total biomass, in relation to the physicochemical properties of the water column and mussel filtering activity. Our findings suggest that the phytoplankton community structure, its role within the lagoon food web and its production cycles depend on two distinct allogenic inputs, which shape the community differently and exert substantial control on shellfish production. At the same time, the suspended mussel biomass strongly controls the phytoplankton size composition, as their growth is largely supported by nanophytoplankton. As the Po River collects the drainage waters of the Italian side of the entire Alpine Arch, the phytoplankton dynamics reported here represent a useful baseline for further addressing issues of climatic changes affecting lagoon ecology. We believe that our study presents an innovative tool for the planning and management of interventions aimed at enhancing national mussel production without neglecting aspects of environmental protection or the integrity of the coastal system, with significant scientific implications.}, }
@article {pmid39169040, year = {2024}, author = {Djibrilla, ASM and Rabani, A and Illyassou, KM and Issa, SM and Abdourahimou, KN and Abdoulkader, AH and Aissetou, DY}, title = {Improving tomatoes quality in the Sahel through organic cultivation under photovoltaic greenhouse as a climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {19396}, pmid = {39169040}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Solanum lycopersicum/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Organic Agriculture/methods ; Temperature ; Fruit/growth &amp; development ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate change negative impacts on food production systems have forced large scale food producers to make available less healthy products. Although available on the markets, tomatoes are no more tasting as they used to be and providing fewer nutrients compared to then. This study investigates and compares the quality and yield of organic tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum) produced in an insect net covered photovoltaic greenhouse against ambient production. Plant's physical characteristics were measured, yields and nutrient content were found at harvest, and environmental conditions (temperature, relative humidity, solar irradiance and CO2) were recorded. Plants grew as high as 160 cm inside the greenhouse under an average afternoon temperature of 30.71 °C and a vapor pressure deficit (VPD) of 1.88 kPa against outside plant growth of 72 cm height under averages of 36.04 °C and 3.05 kPa. Although, inside greenhouse tomatoes were physically more attractive and firm with two times healthier tomatoes (98%), 52.39% higher content in protein, 13.31% more minerals and 13.19% more dry matter than outside tomatoes, the yield from outside environment was 4.57 times higher than that of inside due to probably the used crop variety adapted to the harsh climate. Using a crop variety optimum for greenhouse, increasing ventilation and using better fertilizers with enough irrigation could help increase productivity while keeping high fruit quality inside the greenhouse, leading to healthier fruits for food security in the Sahel.}, }
@article {pmid39168688, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, YL and Zhao, YP and Zhao, YQ and Yang, WL and Zheng, MT and Wang, YX and Liu, S and He, J and Su, GJ and Wang, J and Han, XH and Yang, GH and Ren, CJ}, title = {[Changes in Soil Organic Carbon Density and Its Response to Climate Change and Human Activities Before and After the Grain for Green Project on the Loess Plateau].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {45}, number = {8}, pages = {4696-4708}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.202310082}, pmid = {39168688}, issn = {0250-3301}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Soil/chemistry ; China ; *Carbon/analysis ; Organic Chemicals/analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Human Activities ; Forests ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Altitude ; Grassland ; Carbon Sequestration ; Humans ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Accurately assessing the changes in soil organic carbon storage （SOCS） before and after the Grain for Green Project （GFG） in the Loess Plateau （LP） and exploring the relationship between its spatial and temporal distribution and the influencing factors were important references for the development of regional recycling as well as the formulation of ecological protection policies. Based on the data of climate, human activities, and SOCD in the surface （0-20 cm） and deep （0-100 cm） soil before and after GFG in the LP from 2001 to 2020, we investigated the changes in SOCD at different spatial and temporal scales by using the methods of trend analysis, the kriging method, and variance partitioning analysis. The results showed that： ① Before and after the GFG, the surface SOCS of the whole region increased by 8 338.7×10[4] t； the deep SOCS increased by 1 160.02×10[4] t. ② In each bioclimatic subregion, the whole-region average SOCD of Ⅰ （Semi-Humid Forest Region）, Ⅱ （Semi-Humid Semi-Arid Forest and Grassland Region）, and Ⅲ （Semi-Arid Typical Grassland Region） showed a significant increasing trend, with a decreasing trend in Ⅳ （arid semi-arid desert grassland area） and Ⅴ （arid desert area）. ③ The average surface SOCS increase in different ecosystems was ranked as follows： cropland > grassland > woodland > shrubs > bare land and sparse vegetation. The deep soil increase was ranked as follows： grassland > cropland > woodland > shrubs > bare land and sparse vegetation. ④ Climate factors were the most important driving factors for changes in SOCD； the annual average temperature and precipitation were significantly positively correlated with changes in SOCD. The results of the study could provide data support for regional ecological management and land use policy formulation to promote high quality development of the ecological environment in the LP.}, }
@article {pmid39168009, year = {2024}, author = {Shehadeh, A and Alshboul, O and Tamimi, M}, title = {Integrating climate change predictions into infrastructure degradation modelling using advanced markovian frameworks to enhanced resilience.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {368}, number = {}, pages = {122234}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122234}, pmid = {39168009}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This study introduces a prognostic model that quantifies infrastructure degradation in highway systems, incorporating the impacts of climate change using an advanced Markovian framework. By assimilating extensive historical maintenance records and detailed climatic data, the model employs a multi-tiered exponential erosion risk framework to enhance predictive accuracy. Our findings indicate a 15-20% acceleration in degradation rates under projected climate scenarios, emphasizing the necessity for climate-adaptive infrastructure management strategies. Utilizing maximal likelihood estimation, the model corrects sample distortion biases, resulting in a 30% improvement in the accuracy of degradation forecasts compared to conventional models. This accuracy enables maintenance cost savings of up to 25% by optimizing repair timings, thus avoiding premature interventions and reducing costs associated with reactive maintenance strategies. The validated model provides a robust tool for strategic planning and adaptive maintenance of highway systems, promoting resilient infrastructure management in the face of evolving climatic conditions. This research ensures that infrastructure professionals can anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change, optimizing maintenance budgets and extending the service life of highway assets.}, }
@article {pmid39167599, year = {2024}, author = {McDermott, A}, title = {Climate change is drying out canopy plants-that could mean less water for the entire rainforest.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {35}, pages = {e2415456121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2415456121}, pmid = {39167599}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid39166686, year = {2024}, author = {Saldivar, I and Vammen, K}, title = {Tropical dry forests, water, biodiversity and the challenges of climate change in Nicaragua.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {84}, number = {}, pages = {e280001}, doi = {10.1590/1519-6984.280001}, pmid = {39166686}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {Nicaragua ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Tropical Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The Tropical Dry Forests of Nicaragua located mainly in the Pacific and Central-North zones play an essential role in maintaining resources such as water and the special biodiversity of this vulnerable ecosystem now under pressure from land-use changes and climate change These resources are essential to the well-being of the population as the main aquifers of the country are located in this area along with ecosystem services of this now heavily fragmented forest ecosystem. The ongoing influence of climate change along with land-use changes have caused the growth of arid zones in all of Central America. These on-going land use changes are lowering the resilience to the present and future climate change. Individual efforts to sustainable management of the forests are mentioned but it is nonetheless urgent to introduce wider and more intensive sustainable forestry and watershed management under a well-planned strategy based on findings of scientific research. The importance of the interrelationship between water and forests in the management of sustainable forest ecosystems will be stressed.}, }
@article {pmid39166147, year = {2024}, author = {Speck, CL and DiPietro Mager, NA and Mager, JN}, title = {Pharmacy Interns' Perception of Climate Change and Its Impact on Health.}, journal = {Innovations in pharmacy}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {39166147}, issn = {2155-0417}, abstract = {Background: The effects of climate change are major threats to health and well-being. While the profession of pharmacy can make a difference through patient care activities, sustainability, and advocacy, literature detailing U.S. pharmacist and student pharmacist views on this topic is scant. Objectives: To assess Ohio pharmacy interns' knowledge and beliefs regarding climate change and human health as well as its relevance to pharmacy practice and education, and to compare and contrast their perceptions with those of Ohio pharmacists previously surveyed. Methods: An anonymous 31-item electronic survey was emailed to a random sample of 500 pharmacy interns registered in Ohio with questions regarding climate change and health, climate change policy, potential roles for pharmacists and pharmacy interns, pharmacy education, and demographics. Data were analyzed using descriptive and nonparametric statistics, and responses collected from this study were compared with those from the Ohio pharmacist study conducted the previous year. Results: Ninety-two interns completed the survey. The majority of respondents thought climate change is happening (87%), will harm human health in their community (68%), and is relevant to pharmacists or pharmacy practice (62%). Compared to registered pharmacists, pharmacy interns more often acknowledged these statements and more often identified roles in climate action. Sixty-two percent somewhat or strongly agreed that there should be more education about climate change and health in the pharmacy curriculum. Conclusion: The majority of Ohio pharmacy interns participating in this survey recognized the impact of climate change on health, believed they have roles in mitigating its effects, and wanted to learn more about it. As these are the first data assessing U.S. pharmacy interns' perceptions of this topic, additional studies should be performed in other parts of the country. Increased education among student pharmacists may help propel the pharmacy profession to take the lead in climate action and sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid39165541, year = {2024}, author = {Chmura, HE and Olson, LE and Murdoch, R and Fraik, AK and Jackson, S and McKelvey, KS and Koenig, R and Pilgrim, KL and DeCesare, N and Schwartz, MK}, title = {Climate change differentially alters distribution of two marten species in a hybrid zone.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {e70181}, pmid = {39165541}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Species' ranges are shifting rapidly with climate change, altering the composition of biological communities and interactions within and among species. Hybridization is among the species interactions that may change markedly with climate change, yet it is understudied relative to others. We used non-invasive genetic detections to build a maximum entropy species distribution model and investigate the factors that delimit the present and future ranges of American marten (Martes americana) and Pacific marten (Martes caurina) in a contact zone in the Northern Rockies. We found that climate change will decrease the suitable habitat predicted for both species, as well as the amount of overlap in predicted suitable habitat between the species. Interestingly, predicted suitable habitat for Pacific marten extended further north in the study region than our genetic detections for the species, suggesting that biotic factors, such as interactions with American marten, may affect the realized range of this species. Our results suggest that future work investigating the interactions among biotic and abiotic factors that influence hybrid zone dynamics is important for predicting the futures of these two species in this area under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39164035, year = {2024}, author = {Dyer, C}, title = {GP who was jailed over climate change protests is suspended for three months.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {386}, number = {}, pages = {q1829}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q1829}, pmid = {39164035}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; General Practitioners ; Dissent and Disputes ; }, }
@article {pmid39163749, year = {2024}, author = {Shokri, M and Lezzi, L and Basset, A}, title = {The seasonal response of metabolic rate to projected climate change scenarios in aquatic amphipods.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {124}, number = {}, pages = {103941}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2024.103941}, pmid = {39163749}, issn = {0306-4565}, abstract = {The responses of organisms to climate change are mediated primarily by its impact on their metabolic rates, which, in turn, drive various biological and ecological processes. Although there have been numerous seminal studies on the sensitivity of metabolic rate to temperature, little is empirically known about how this rate responds to seasonal temperature ranges and beyond under conservative IPCC climate change scenarios. Here, we measured the SMR of the aquatic amphipod, Gammarus insensibilis, which served as our subject species, with body masses ranging from 0.20 to 7.74 mg ash free weight. We assessed the response of the SMR across nine temperature levels ranging from 12 to 30.2 °C. These temperatures match seasonal temperature norms, with an incremental increase of 0.6-1.2 °C above each seasonal baseline, as projected for the years 2040 and 2100 under the modest climate change scenarios. Overall, our findings showed that the effect of temperature on SMR varies with body mass, as indicated by a negative size-temperature interaction, with larger conspecifics exhibiting less sensitivity to temperature changes than smaller ones. From the cold to warm season, the SMR increased by an average of 14% °C[-1], with increases of 18.4% °C[-1] in smaller individuals and 11.4% °C[-1] in larger ones. The SMR of smaller individuals peaked at a 0.6 °C increase from the current summer baseline (15.08% °C[-1], Q10 = 4.2), while in larger ones it peaked with a 1.2 °C increase beyond autumn temperatures (14.9% °C[-1], Q10 = 3.9). However, at temperatures reflecting global warming that exceed summer temperatures, the SMR of larger individuals levelled off, while that of smaller ones continued to increase. Overall, our findings suggest that smaller-sized individuals have a broader thermal window for SMR performance, while the SMR of larger-sized ones will become increasingly constrained at summer temperatures as those summer temperatures become hotter.}, }
@article {pmid39163236, year = {2024}, author = {Rasmussen, S}, title = {Climate Change Is Changing Astronomy: Astronomy's future may be slipping away-one climate disaster at a time.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {331}, number = {2}, pages = {75}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican092024-6SrJw3yKjhZ6Wl79HIPJKd}, pmid = {39163236}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39162042, year = {2024}, author = {Sojitra, M and Corney, S and Hemer, M and Hamilton, S and McInnes, J and Thalmann, S and Lea, MA}, title = {Traversing the land-sea interface: A climate change risk assessment of terrestrially breeding marine predators.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {e17452}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17452}, pmid = {39162042}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Risk Assessment ; Predatory Behavior ; Antarctic Regions ; Spheniscidae/physiology ; Food Chain ; }, abstract = {Terrestrially breeding marine predators have experienced shifts in species distribution, prey availability, breeding phenology, and population dynamics due to climate change worldwide. These central-place foragers are restricted within proximity of their breeding colonies during the breeding season, making them highly susceptible to any changes in both marine and terrestrial environments. While ecologists have developed risk assessments to evaluate climate risk in various contexts, these often overlook critical breeding biology data. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a trait-based risk assessment framework, focusing on the breeding season and applying it to marine predators breeding in parts of Australian territory and Antarctica. Our objectives were to quantify climate change risk, identify specific threats, and establish an adaptable assessment framework. The assessment considered 25 criteria related to three risk components: vulnerability, exposure, and hazard, while accounting for uncertainty. We employed a scoring system that integrated a systematic literature review and expert elicitation for the hazard criteria. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key factors contributing to overall risk. We identified shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta), southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome), Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), and Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) with high climate urgency. Species breeding in lower latitudes, as well as certain eared seal, albatross, and penguin species, were particularly at risk. Hazard and exposure explained the most variation in relative risk, outweighing vulnerability. Key climate hazards affecting most species include extreme weather events, changes in habitat suitability, and prey availability. We emphasise the need for further research, focusing on at-risk species, and filling knowledge gaps (less-studied hazards, and/or species) to provide a more accurate and robust climate change risk assessment. Our findings offer valuable insights for conservation efforts, given that monitoring and implementing climate adaptation strategies for land-dependent marine predators is more feasible during their breeding season.}, }
@article {pmid39161487, year = {2024}, author = {Rathor, AA and Lin, M and MacArthur, RD}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Cellulitis: A Literature Review.}, journal = {Cureus}, volume = {16}, number = {7}, pages = {e64958}, pmid = {39161487}, issn = {2168-8184}, abstract = {Climate change is a phenomenon that has had, and will continue to have, wide-ranging effects on the world in both the near and distant future. With regards to human health, research has demonstrated the impact of climate change on heat-related illness, mental health, and vector-borne infectious diseases. Through a review of the literature, this paper aims to elucidate both current and future consequences of climate change on cellulitis, a type of skin infection that is associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and cost. Factors such as elevated temperature, pollution, rising sea levels, and the increased frequency of natural disasters pose an alarming risk for the increased proliferation of infections such as cellulitis. Lastly, in light of these trends, this paper will address potential strategies individuals can implement to reduce the effects of climate change on cellulitis.}, }
@article {pmid39161269, year = {2024}, author = {Arriaga, O and Wawrzynkowski, P and Muguerza, N and Díez, I and González, J and Gorostiaga, JM and Quintano, E and Becerro, MA}, title = {Thermal refugia reinforce macroalgal resilience against climate change in the southeastern Bay of Biscay.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {e17481}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17481}, pmid = {39161269}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {RTI2018-098970-B-I00//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; PRE_2022_2_0127//Eusko Jaurlaritza/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Refugium ; *Temperature ; *Seaweed/physiology ; Bays ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Rising global temperatures present unprecedented challenges to marine ecosystems, demanding a profound understanding of their ecological dynamics for effective conservation strategies. Over a comprehensive macroalgal assessment spanning three decades, we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of shallow-water benthic communities in the southern Bay of Biscay, uncovering climate-resilient areas amidst the ongoing phase shift in the region. Our investigation identified seven locations serving as potential climate refugia, where cold-affinity, canopy-forming macroalgal species persisted and community structure was similar to that observed in 1991. We unveiled a clear association between the emergence of these refugia, sea surface temperature (SST), and the Community Temperature Index, positioning SST as a significant driver of the observed phase shift in the region. Warming processes, defined as tropicalization (increase of warm-affinity species) and deborealization (decrease of cold-affinity species), were prominent outside refugia. In contrast, cooling processes, defined as borealization (increase of cold-affinity species) and detropicalization (decrease of warm-affinity species), prevailed inside refugia. Refugia exhibited approximately 35% lower warming processes compared to non-refuge areas. This resulted in a dominance of warm-affinity species outside refugia, contrasting with the stability observed within refugia. The persistence of canopy-forming species in refuge areas significantly contributed to maintaining ecosystem diversity and stability. These findings underscored the pivotal role of climate refugia in mitigating climate-driven impacts. Prioritizing the protection and restoration of these refugia can foster resilience and ensure the preservation of biodiversity for future generations. Our study illustrates the importance of refining our understanding of how marine ecosystems respond to climate change, offering actionable insights essential for informed conservation strategies and sustainable environmental management.}, }
@article {pmid39159575, year = {2024}, author = {Guo, J and Xie, J and Liu, X and Yang, T}, title = {How do global value chains respond to climate change? A case study of Chinese manufacturing firms.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {368}, number = {}, pages = {122083}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122083}, pmid = {39159575}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This study investigates climate risk and its effects on global value chain (GVC) participation, with a focus on the impact of drought on the export value-added ratio (DVAR) of Chinese manufacturing firms. Using fixed effects (FE) and system GMM models, the main findings are: Drought significantly reduces manufacturing firms' DVAR, with the lagged dependent variable showing a strong persistence effect and an even greater impact in the second lag period. This impact varies based on the firm's location, the complexity of its value chain, and its ability to adapt to and mitigate climate change effects. Strategies such as improving operational efficiency, investing in sustainable technologies, and enhancing competitiveness in developed markets may help mitigate or reverse the adverse effects of climate change on these firms. Additionally, significant industry and regional differences are observed, with the Northeast, East, and South China regions being most severely affected by drought. Global innovation value chains and regional processing value chains are significantly negatively impacted, while labor-intensive value chains are affected only in the current period. These findings provide new insights into the economic impacts of climate change and offer a basis for policymakers to develop strategies that help firms adapt to and mitigate climate risks.}, }
@article {pmid39159317, year = {2024}, author = {Rosenzweig, B and Montalto, FA and Orton, P and Kaatz, J and Maher, N and Kleyman, J and Chen, Z and Sanderson, E and Adhikari, N and McPhearson, T and Herreros-Cantis, P}, title = {NPCC4: Climate change and New York City's flood risk.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.15175}, pmid = {39159317}, issn = {1749-6632}, abstract = {This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report provides a comprehensive description of the different types of flood hazards (pluvial, fluvial, coastal, groundwater, and compound) facing New York City and provides climatological context that can be utilized, along with climate change projections, to support flood risk management (FRM). Previous NPCC reports documented coastal flood hazards and presented trends in historical and future precipitation and sea level but did not comprehensively assess all the city's flood hazards. Previous NPCC reports also discussed the implications of floods on infrastructure and the city's residents but did not review the impacts of flooding on the city's natural and nature-based systems (NNBSs). This-the NPCC's first report focused on all drivers of flooding-describes and profiles historical examples of each type of flood and summarizes previous and ongoing research regarding exposure, vulnerability, and risk management, including with NNBS and nonstructural measures.}, }
@article {pmid39159145, year = {2024}, author = {Meherali, S and Nisa, S and Aynalem, YA and Kennedy, M and Salami, B and Adjorlolo, S and Ali, P and Silva, KL and Aziato, L and Richter, S and Lassi, ZS}, title = {Impact of climate change on maternal health outcomes: An evidence gap map review.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {4}, number = {8}, pages = {e0003540}, pmid = {39159145}, issn = {2767-3375}, abstract = {Climate change poses unique challenges to maternal well-being and increases complications during pregnancy and childbirth globally. This evidence gap map (EGM) aims to identify gaps in existing knowledge and areas where further research related to climate change and its impact on maternal health is required. The following databases were searched individually from inception to present: Medline, EMBASE, and Global Health via OVID; Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) via EBSCOhost; Scopus; and organizational websites. In this EGM, we integrated 133 studies published in English, including qualitative, quantitative, reviews and grey literature that examined the impact of climate change on maternal health (women aged 15-45). We used Covidence to screen studies and Evidence for Policy and Practice Information (Eppi reviewer)/Eppi Mapper software to generate the EGM. Data extraction and qualitative appraisal of the studies was done using critical appraisal tools. The study protocol was registered in International Platform of Registered Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Protocols (INPLASY) # INPLASY202370085. Out of 133 included studies, forty seven studies were of high quality, seventy nine moderate equality and seven low quality. This EGM found notable gaps in the literature regarding the distribution of research across regions. We found significant research in North America (51) and Asia (40 studies). However, Africa and the Caribbean had fewer studies, highlighting potential disparities in research attention and resources. Moreover, while the impact of extreme heat emerged as a prominent factor impacting maternal well-being, there is a need for further investigation into other climate-related factors such as drought. Additionally, while preterm stillbirth and maternal mortality have gained attention, there is an overlook of malnutrition and food insecurity indicators that require attention in future research. The EGM identifies existing research gaps in climate change and maternal health. It emphasizes the need for global collaboration and targeted interventions to address disparities and inform climate-responsive policies.}, }
@article {pmid39158113, year = {2024}, author = {Li, L and Lu, C and Winiwarter, W and Tian, H and Canadell, JG and Ito, A and Jain, AK and Kou-Giesbrecht, S and Pan, S and Pan, N and Shi, H and Sun, Q and Vuichard, N and Ye, S and Zaehle, S and Zhu, Q}, title = {Enhanced nitrous oxide emission factors due to climate change increase the mitigation challenge in the agricultural sector.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {e17472}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17472}, pmid = {39158113}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {1903722//Armenian National Science and Education Fund/ ; //OECD Co-operative Research Program fellowship/ ; 2023-67019-39252//USDA AFRI/ ; 1945036//NSF CAREER/ ; }, mesh = {*Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Agriculture/methods ; *Fertilizers/analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Machine Learning ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Effective nitrogen fertilizer management is crucial for reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions while ensuring food security within planetary boundaries. However, climate change might also interact with management practices to alter N2O emission and emission factors (EFs), adding further uncertainties to estimating mitigation potentials. Here, we developed a new hybrid modeling framework that integrates a machine learning model with an ensemble of eight process-based models to project EFs under different climate and nitrogen policy scenarios. Our findings reveal that EFs are dynamically modulated by environmental changes, including climate, soil properties, and nitrogen management practices. Under low-ambition nitrogen regulation policies, EF would increase from 1.18%-1.22% in 2010 to 1.27%-1.34% by 2050, representing a relative increase of 4.4%-11.4% and exceeding the IPCC tier-1 EF of 1%. This trend is particularly pronounced in tropical and subtropical regions with high nitrogen inputs, where EFs could increase by 0.14%-0.35% (relative increase of 11.9%-17%). In contrast, high-ambition policies have the potential to mitigate the increases in EF caused by climate change, possibly leading to slight decreases in EFs. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that global EFs are expected to continue rising due to warming and regional drying-wetting cycles, even in the absence of changes in nitrogen management practices. This asymmetrical influence of nitrogen fertilizers on EFs, driven by climate change, underscores the urgent need for immediate N2O emission reductions and further assessments of mitigation potentials. This hybrid modeling framework offers a computationally efficient approach to projecting future N2O emissions across various climate, soil, and nitrogen management scenarios, facilitating socio-economic assessments and policy-making efforts.}, }
@article {pmid39157905, year = {2024}, author = {Terán, F and Vives-Peris, V and Gómez-Cadenas, A and Pérez-Clemente, RM}, title = {Facing climate change: plant stress mitigation strategies in agriculture.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {176}, number = {4}, pages = {e14484}, doi = {10.1111/ppl.14484}, pmid = {39157905}, issn = {1399-3054}, support = {TED2021-129795B-I00//European Union-NextGenerationEU/ ; PRE2020-093757//MCIN/ ; ERDF "A way of making Europe"//MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/ ; PID2022-137825OB-I00//MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Stress, Physiological ; *Crops, Agricultural/physiology ; *Agriculture/methods ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses significant challenges to global agriculture, with rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events threatening crop yields. These changes exceed the adaptability thresholds of many crops, decreasing their yield and threatening food security. At plant physiological levels, climate change-induced stressors disrupt photosynthesis, growth, and reproductive processes, contributing to a reduced productivity. Furthermore, the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture are exacerbated by anthropogenic factors, with agriculture itself contributing significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. To mitigate these challenges, various approaches have been explored. This work reviews the most important physical, chemical, and biological strategies most commonly used in a broad range of agricultural crops. Among physical strategies, increasing water use efficiency without yield reduction through different irrigation strategies, and the use of foliar treatments with reflective properties to mitigate the negative effects of different stresses have been proven to be effective. Concerning chemical approaches, the exogenous treatment of plants with chemicals induces existing molecular and physiological plant defense mechanisms, enhancing abiotic stress tolerance. Regarding biological treatments, plant inoculation with mycorrhiza and plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) can improve enzymatic antioxidant capacity and mineral solubilization, favoring root and plant growth and enhance plant performance under stressful conditions. While these strategies provide valuable short- to medium-term solutions, there is a pressing need for new biotechnological approaches aimed at developing genotypes resistant to stressful conditions. Collaborative efforts among researchers, policymakers, and agricultural stakeholders are essential to ensure global food security in the face of ongoing climate challenges.}, }
@article {pmid39154184, year = {2024}, author = {İlaslan, N and Şahin Orak, N}, title = {Relationship between nursing students' global climate change awareness, climate change anxiety and sustainability attitudes in nursing: a descriptive and cross-sectional study.}, journal = {BMC nursing}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {573}, pmid = {39154184}, issn = {1472-6955}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: As a major global health threat, climate change is an important issue for nurses who play a pivotal role in health protection and improvement, and in the development of climate-smart healthcare systems. Sustainability attitudes in nursing should be developed together with awareness and concern for climate change.<br><br>AIM: The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between nursing students' global climate change awareness, climate change anxiety, and sustainability attitudes in nursing.<br><br>METHODS: This descriptive, correlational study was conducted with 289 nursing students at a state university. Data were collected using the Descriptive Characteristics Form, the Global Climate Change Awareness Scale, the Climate Change Anxiety Scale, and the Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey. Mean and percentage distributions, the Independent Samples t-test, ANOVA test, Pearson correlation and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze the data. The STROBE checklist was used to report this study.<br><br>RESULTS: Global climate change awareness of the nursing students was at a moderate level, and the levels of climate change anxiety and sustainability attitudes in nursing were above average. There was determined to be a moderate positive correlation between climate change awareness and sustainability attitude in nursing, between anxiety and sustainability attitude in nursing, and between climate change awareness and anxiety. Climate change awareness and anxiety explained 25.1% of the sustainability attitude in nursing.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study provides evidence of the relationship between nursing students' global climate change awareness and anxiety, and sustainability attitudes in nursing. It can be recommended that climate change and sustainability awareness-raising content are integrated into the nursing curriculum. The development of a sustainability attitude in nursing will contribute to the development of sustainable and low-carbon healthcare practices.}, }
@article {pmid39153618, year = {2024}, author = {Guo, WW and Jin, L and Liu, X and Wang, WT}, title = {Vulnerability and driving mechanism of four typical grasslands in China under the coupled impacts of climate change and human activities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175560}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175560}, pmid = {39153618}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding of how different grasslands types respond to climate change and human activities across different spatial and temporal dimensions is crucial for devising effective strategies to prevent grasslands degradation. In this study, we developed a novel vulnerability assessment model for grasslands that intricately evaluates the combined impact of climate change and human activities. We then applied this model to analyze the vulnerability and driving mechanism of four representative Chinese grasslands to climate change and human activities. Our findings indicate that the vulnerability of the four grasslands would show a pattern of higher in the west and lower in the east under the influence of climate change alone. However, when human activities are factored in, the vulnerability across the four grasslands tends to homogenize, with human activities notably reducing the vulnerability of alpine grasslands in the west and, conversely, increasing the vulnerability of grasslands in the east. Furthermore, our study reveals distinct major environmental drivers of grasslands vulnerability across different regions. The two western alpine grasslands exhibit higher vulnerability to annual mean temperature and isothermality compared to the eastern temperate grasslands, while their vulnerability to precipitation of the coldest quarter is lower than that of the eastern temperate grasslands. These findings are helpful for understanding the multifaceted causes and mechanisms of grasslands degradation, providing a scientific foundation for the sustainable management and conservation of grassland resources.}, }
@article {pmid39153617, year = {2024}, author = {Hu, J and Zheng, J and Lu, D and Dai, X and Wang, R and Zhu, Y and Park, BS and Li, C and Kim, JH and Guo, R and Wang, P}, title = {Mapping the main harmful algal species in the East China Sea (Yangtze River estuary) and their possible response to the Main ecological status and global climate change via a global vision.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175527}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175527}, pmid = {39153617}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) is one of the areas in China most severely affected by harmful algal blooms (HABs). This study explored the distributive patterns of HABs in the YRE and how they are influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other environmental factors. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) was employed to detect and quantify the four predominant HAB species in the YRE, Karenia mikimotoi, Margalefidinium polykrikoides, Prorocentrum donghaiense, and Heterosigma akashiwo. Additionally, the study analyzed how turbidity, pH, salinity, and temperature influence these algae. Distribution of the four HAB species in the YRE area shows clear geographical variations: K. mikimotoi is predominantly found in the northwest and central sea areas, M. polykrikoides (East Asian Ribotype, EAR) is mainly distributed in the southeastern part, P. donghaiense is abundant in the northern regions, and H. akashiwo is especially prevalent at stations S26 and S27 in the northeastern part of the study area. HABs dominated by H. akashiwo and P. donghaiense were observed in the northeastern sea area of the YRE on July 22, 2020. Our study reveals that K. mikimotoi, M. polykrikoides (EAR), and P. donghaiense are mainly affected by turbidity, pH, and salinity, while temperature predominantly influences the blooms of H. akashiwo. Moreover, runoff in the YRE has a certain correlation with ENSO events, which may also impact the nutrient content of the region. The findings of this study illustrate the distributive patterns of the four HAB species under various ecological conditions in the YRE and emphasize the importance of establishing practical cases for future warning systems. To better understand how climate change affects HABs, exploring the link between ENSO and HABs is essential.}, }
@article {pmid39152531, year = {2024}, author = {Diallo, AM and Ridde, V}, title = {Climate change and resilience of the Senegalese health system in the face of the floods in Keur Massar.}, journal = {The International journal of health planning and management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/hpm.3846}, pmid = {39152531}, issn = {1099-1751}, support = {//Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement/ ; //Minist&#xe8;re de l'Europe et des Affaires &#xc9;trang&#xe8;res/ ; }, abstract = {This article is based on the observation that the affected populations perceive existing community-based adaptation strategies to the health effects of floods differently. We explore the resilience of the local health system to climate change (CC) in Keur Massar (Senegal) using a monographic approach based on a qualitative survey of flooded households, health professionals, hygiene agents, community health actors, administrative and local authorities, agents from the Ministries of Health and Environment, and experts from the ecological and meteorological monitoring centre (n = 72). The effects of CC on health are modulated by financial, organisational, social and cultural factors. The effects of CC on health are modulated by traditionally praised by self-centred health governance, which is often based on standardisation of problems and thus not sufficiently attuned to local contexts, especially the climate vulnerability index (CVI) of households and health structures. Despite the existence of programs to combat the consequences of CC, the notorious lack of exhaustive mapping of areas with a high CVI hinders the effective management of the health of the affected populations. A typology of forms of mobility in the context of flooding-ground floor to the upper floor, borrowing a room, renting a flat, seasonal residence-reveals inequalities in access to care as well as specific health needs management of vector-borne diseases, discontinuity of maternal, newborn and child health care, and psychosocial assistance. The article outlines how a health territorialisation based on surveillance and response mechanisms can be co-constructed and made sustainable in areas with a high CVI. Integrating this approach into national health policies allows for equity in health systems efficiently and sustainably.}, }
@article {pmid39152020, year = {2024}, author = {Perry, D and Mavrogianni, A and Pelham, C and Sisodiya, SM}, title = {Rare diseases: we need to think about climate change too.}, journal = {The Lancet. Neurology}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {857-858}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-4422(24)00333-8}, pmid = {39152020}, issn = {1474-4465}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Rare Diseases/therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid39151357, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, J and Zhuang, Y and Dong, B and Wang, F and Yan, Y and Zhang, D and Liu, Z and Duan, X and Bo, Y and Peng, L}, title = {Spatial heterogeneity of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances caused by glacial melting in Tibetan Lake Nam Co due to global warming.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {478}, number = {}, pages = {135468}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2024.135468}, pmid = {39151357}, issn = {1873-3336}, abstract = {Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in high-latitude polar regions and the Tibetan Plateau have received widespread international attention. Here, we measured 18 PFASs and 11 major isomers in the lake water, sediment, and surrounding runoff of Lake Nam Co in 2020. The concentrations of ultrashort-chain trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) and perfluoropropanoic acid (PFPrA) and major isomers of perfluoooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluoooctane sulfonate acid (PFOS) in water bodies in high-latitude polar regions and the Tibetan Plateau are reported for the first time. The results showed that the concentration of ∑PFASs in glacial runoff was approximately 139 % greater than that in nonglacial runoff. The concentrations of ∑PFASs in the lake water and sediment in the southern lake with multiple glacial runoff events were approximately 113 % and 108 % higher, respectively, than those in the northern lake. The concentrations of short-chain perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA) and ultrashort-chain TFA and PFPrA, which may be indicators of ice and snow melt, exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. Overall, the spatial heterogeneity of PFAS concentrations in the water, sediment and surrounding runoff of Lake Nam Co may be caused mainly by glacial melting.}, }
@article {pmid39150738, year = {2024}, author = {Brouillette, M}, title = {Medical Schools Are Updating Their Curricula as Climate Change Becomes Impossible to Ignore.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2024.13506}, pmid = {39150738}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid39145905, year = {2024}, author = {Rawat, MS and Rawat, PK and Belho, K}, title = {Geospatial AI solution to monitor and mitigate increasing adverse ecological and hydrological impacts of climate change in Uttarakhand Himalaya (India).}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39145905}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {CSIR/ 13 (7179-A//Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, India/ ; DST/SR/OY/A-04/91//Earth System Sciences Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Though climate change and its adverse ecological and geohydrological impacts are being experienced across the world in all types of ecosystems but as far as the Himalaya mountain ecosystem is concerned, the rate of climate change and subsequent impacts have reached an alarming stage due to anthropogenic and technogenic intervention on natural process and now need most effective and less time taking management strategy. Addressing this burning environmental problem, a geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) technique-based case study is presented here from one of the most densely populated and urbanized regions of Himalaya mountain, viz Uttarakhand Himalaya, which is also called central Himalaya. The results of the study suggest that due to quite a high rate of climate change, the climatic zones shifting towards higher altitudes at the average rate of 5.6 2 m/year, causing several adverse ecological impacts in terms of decreasing quality dense temperate forest cover (0.05%/year), snow cover (0.02%/year), water bodies (0.01%/year), agricultural land (0.31%/year), and horticultural land (0.01%/year). Conversion of these eco-friendly land use land cover into barren land, fallow land, and built-up land causes geohydrological consequences of climate change in terms of decreasing rainy days (1%/year), drying perennial springs (0.20%/year), perennial streams (0.11%/year), decreasing spring and stream discharge during non-monsoon season, increased extreme rainfall events (6-8%/year), and subsequent surface runoff during monsoon season. Further, the study advocates that the degraded geohydrological process has resulted in an increased frequency of disaster events (floods, cloudbursts, landslides. etc.) with a 3% (12 events) annual rate, causing great loss of environment, infrastructure, lives, and economy each year. Therefore, it has been very urgent to mitigate climate change and increase geohydrological disaster events through an integrated approach. Keep in view this, the present study proposed an integrated watershed management plan which is equally useful to be implemented across the Himalaya region and other similar ecosystems across the world.}, }
@article {pmid39145041, year = {2024}, author = {Abedin, I and Mukherjee, T and Kim, AR and Lee, SR and Kim, HW and Kundu, S}, title = {Fragile futures: Evaluating habitat and climate change response of hog badgers (Mustelidae: Arctonyx) in the conservation landscape of mainland Asia.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {e70160}, pmid = {39145041}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The small mammalian fauna plays pivotal roles in ecosystem dynamics and as crucial biodiversity indicators. However, recent research has raised concerns about the decline of mammalian species due to climate change. Consequently, significant attention is directed toward studying various big flagship mammalian species for conservation. However, small mammals such as the hog badgers (Mustelidae: Arctonyx) remain understudied regarding the impacts of climate change in Asia. The present study offers a comprehensive analysis of climate change effects on two mainland hog badger species, utilizing ensemble species distribution modeling. Findings reveal concerning outcomes, as only 52% of the IUCN extent is deemed suitable for the Great Hog Badger (Arctonyx collaris) and a mere 17% is ideal for the Northern Hog Badger (Arctonyx albogularis). Notably, projections suggest a potential reduction of over 26% in suitable areas for both species under future climate scenarios, with the most severe decline anticipated in the high-emission scenario of SSP585. These declines translate into evident habitat fragmentation, particularly impacting A. collaris, whose patches shrink substantially, contrasting with the relatively stable patches of A. albogularis. However, despite their differences, niche overlap analysis reveals an intriguing increase in overlap between the two species, indicating potential ecological shifts. The study underscores the importance of integrating climate change and habitat fragmentation considerations into conservation strategies, urging a reassessment of the IUCN status of A. albogularis. The insights gained from this research are crucial for improving protection measures by ensuring adequate legal safeguards and maintaining ecological corridors between viable habitat patches, which are essential for the conservation of hog badgers across mainland Asia. Furthermore, emphasizing the urgency of proactive efforts, particularly in countries with suitable habitats can help safeguard these small mammalian species and their ecosystems from the detrimental impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39144799, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Schizophrenia bulletin open}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {sgac065}, pmid = {39144799}, issn = {2632-7899}, }
@article {pmid39143284, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {How nitrogen compounds in fertilizers and fossil-fuel emissions affect global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39143284}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid39143071, year = {2024}, author = {Abera, TA and Heiskanen, J and Maeda, EE and Muhammed, MA and Bhandari, N and Vakkari, V and Hailu, BT and Pellikka, PKE and Hemp, A and van Zyl, PG and Zeuss, D}, title = {Deforestation amplifies climate change effects on warming and cloud level rise in African montane forests.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {6992}, pmid = {39143071}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {3.3 - 1228176 - FIN - HFST-p//Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung (Alexander von Humboldt Foundation)/ ; 350719//Academy of Finland (Suomen Akatemia)/ ; 350719//Academy of Finland (Suomen Akatemia)/ ; }, mesh = {*Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Africa ; *Biodiversity ; *Tropical Climate ; *Temperature ; Ecosystem ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Tropical montane forest ecosystems are pivotal for sustaining biodiversity and essential terrestrial ecosystem services, including the provision of high-quality fresh water. Nonetheless, the impact of montane deforestation and climate change on the capacity of forests to deliver ecosystem services is yet to be fully understood. In this study, we offer observational evidence demonstrating the response of air temperature and cloud base height to deforestation in African montane forests over the last two decades. Our findings reveal that approximately 18% (7.4 ± 0.5 million hectares) of Africa's montane forests were lost between 2003 and 2022. This deforestation has led to a notable increase in maximum air temperature (1.37 ± 0.58 °C) and cloud base height (236 ± 87 metres), surpassing shifts attributed solely to climate change. Our results call for urgent attention to montane deforestation, as it poses serious threats to biodiversity, water supply, and ecosystem services in the tropics.}, }
@article {pmid39142806, year = {2024}, author = {Willett, W and Springmann, M}, title = {Food, health, and climate change: can epidemiologists contribute further?.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {53}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/ije/dyae109}, pmid = {39142806}, issn = {1464-3685}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Epidemiologists ; Food Supply ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid39141657, year = {2024}, author = {Dembélé, G and Loison, R and Traoré, A and Dembélé, SG and Sissoko, F}, title = {Optimizing type, date, and dose of compost fertilization of organic cotton under climate change in Mali: A modeling study.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {e0308736}, pmid = {39141657}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Gossypium/growth &amp; development ; *Composting/methods ; Mali ; *Fertilizers ; Soil/chemistry ; Organic Agriculture/methods ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Adapting organic farming to climate change is a major issue. Cotton yields in Mali are declining due to deteriorating climatic conditions, soil fertility, and poor management. This study aimed to improve organic cotton yield in Mali in the future climate with the optimal choice of compost type, date, and dose of application. Experimental data collected in 2021 from the Sotuba research station in Mali was used for calibration and evaluation of the crop model DSSAT CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model using phenology, leaf area index, and seed cotton yield. Climate data from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of the GFDL-ESM2M model were used for future weather datasets for 2020-2039, 2040-2059, and 2060-2079. The model was able to simulate anthesis and maturity with excellent results, with nRMSE < 4%, and seed cotton yields moderately well, an nRMSE of 26% during calibration and 20.3% in evaluation. The scenario RCP8.5 from 2060 to 2079 gave the best seed cotton yields. Seed cotton yields with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were all better with the mid-May application period of small ruminant silo compost at 7.5 t/ha. In such conditions, more than 75% of the cases would produce more than 2000 kg/ha of seed cotton.}, }
@article {pmid39139701, year = {2024}, author = {Zetzsche, J and Fallet, M}, title = {To live or let die? Epigenetic adaptations to climate change-a review.}, journal = {Environmental epigenetics}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {dvae009}, pmid = {39139701}, issn = {2058-5888}, abstract = {Anthropogenic activities are responsible for a wide array of environmental disturbances that threaten biodiversity. Climate change, encompassing temperature increases, ocean acidification, increased salinity, droughts, and floods caused by frequent extreme weather events, represents one of the most significant environmental alterations. These drastic challenges pose ecological constraints, with over a million species expected to disappear in the coming years. Therefore, organisms must adapt or face potential extinctions. Adaptations can occur not only through genetic changes but also through non-genetic mechanisms, which often confer faster acclimatization and wider variability ranges than their genetic counterparts. Among these non-genetic mechanisms are epigenetics defined as the study of molecules and mechanisms that can perpetuate alternative gene activity states in the context of the same DNA sequence. Epigenetics has received increased attention in the past decades, as epigenetic mechanisms are sensitive to a wide array of environmental cues, and epimutations spread faster through populations than genetic mutations. Epimutations can be neutral, deleterious, or adaptative and can be transmitted to subsequent generations, making them crucial factors in both long- and short-term responses to environmental fluctuations, such as climate change. In this review, we compile existing evidence of epigenetic involvement in acclimatization and adaptation to climate change and discuss derived perspectives and remaining challenges in the field of environmental epigenetics. Graphical Abstract.}, }
@article {pmid39139406, year = {2024}, author = {Selvaraj, JJ and Portilla-Cabrera, CV}, title = {Impact of climate change on Colombian Pacific coast mangrove bivalves distribution.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {110473}, pmid = {39139406}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {The mangrove bivalves, Anadara tuberculosa and Anadara similis, are pivotal for the Colombian Pacific coast mangrove ecosystems and economies. In this study, the current and future potential distribution of these bivalves is modeled considering climate change. The future models (2030 and 2050) were projected considering the new climate scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5) proposed by the IPCC in its sixth report. Our findings reveal areas in the Colombian Pacific coast, notably Nariño, Cauca, southern Valle del Cauca, and Chocó, with high environmental suitability for these bivalves. However, the 2050 projections, especially under the pessimistic SSP5 scenario, indicate potential adverse impacts from climate change. By 2030 and 2050, the species might lean more toward a southwesterly distribution in the Colombian Pacific coast. Climate-induced spatiotemporal mismatches could occur between the bivalves and the mangroves in some areas. These insights are crucial for effective conservation and management strategies for these species.}, }
@article {pmid39138874, year = {2024}, author = {Ward, A and Rogers, HH and Tulleners, T and Levett-Jones, T}, title = {Nursing in 2050: Navigating dual realities of climate change in healthcare.}, journal = {Nursing inquiry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e12666}, doi = {10.1111/nin.12666}, pmid = {39138874}, issn = {1440-1800}, }
@article {pmid39137244, year = {2024}, author = {Zain, A and Yeo, I and Wong, L and Shek, LP}, title = {Climate change from the Asia-Pacific perspective: What an allergist needs to know and do.}, journal = {Pediatric allergy and immunology : official publication of the European Society of Pediatric Allergy and Immunology}, volume = {35}, number = {8}, pages = {e14216}, doi = {10.1111/pai.14216}, pmid = {39137244}, issn = {1399-3038}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Asia ; *Allergists ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; Carbon Footprint ; }, abstract = {Allergic diseases such as asthma, atopic dermatitis, and food allergies are a burgeoning health challenge in the Asia-Pacific region. Compounding this, the region has become increasingly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. The region has weathered extreme precipitation, intense heat waves, and dust storms over the recent decades. While the effects of environmental and genetic factors on allergic diseases are well understood, prevailing gaps in understanding the complex interactions between climate change and these factors remain. We aim to provide insights into the various pathways by which climate change influences allergic diseases in the Asia-Pacific population. We outline practical steps that allergists can take to reduce the carbon footprint of their practice on both a systemic and patient-specific level. We recommend that allergists optimize disease control to reduce the resources required for each patient's care, which contributes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We encourage the responsible prescription of metered dose inhalers by promoting the switch to dry powder inhalers for certain patients, at each clinician's discretion. We also recommend the utilization of virtual consultations to reduce patient travel while ensuring that evidence-based guidelines for rational allergy management are closely adhered to. Finally, eliminating unnecessary testing and medications will also reduce greenhouse gas emissions in many areas of medical care.}, }
@article {pmid39136256, year = {2024}, author = {Verma, KK and Song, XP and Kumari, A and Jagadesh, M and Singh, SK and Bhatt, R and Singh, M and Seth, CS and Li, YR}, title = {Climate change adaptation: Challenges for agricultural sustainability.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/pce.15078}, pmid = {39136256}, issn = {1365-3040}, support = {Guike AA22117002-1//Science and Technology Major Project of Guangxi/ ; 2021YT011//Fund of Guangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ ; GTS2022022//Guangxi Characteristic Crop Experimental Station/ ; nycytxgxcxtd-2021-03//Guangxi Innovation Teams of Modern Agriculture Technology/ ; 31760415//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2022YFD2301102-07//National Key Research and Development Project/ ; 2021GXNSFAA220022//Guangxi Natural Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a substantial threat to agricultural sustainability globally. Agriculture is a vital component of the gross domestic production of developing countries. The multifaceted impacts of climate change on agriculture, highlighting how extreme weather events such as water stress, heatwaves, erratic rainfall, storms, floods, and emerging pest infestations are disrupting agricultural productivity. The socioeconomic status of farmers is particularly vulnerable to climatic extremes with future projections indicating significant increment in ambient air temperatures and unpredictable, intense rainfall patterns. Agriculture has historically relied on the extensive use of synthetic fertilizers, herbicides, and insecticides, combined with advancements in irrigation and biotechnological approaches to boost productivity. It encompasses a range of practices designed to enhance the resilience of agricultural systems, improve productivity, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By adopting climate-smart practices, farmers can better adapt to changing climatic conditions, thereby ensuring more sustainable and secure food production. Furthermore, it identifies key areas for future research, focusing on the development of innovative adaptation and mitigation strategies. These strategies are essential for minimizing the detrimental impacts of climate change on agriculture and for promoting the long-term sustainability of food systems. This article underscores the importance of interdisciplinary approaches and the integration of advanced technologies to address the challenges posed by climate change. By fostering a deeper understanding of these issues to inform policymakers, researchers, and practitioners about effective strategies to safeguard agricultural productivity and food security in the face of changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid39136132, year = {2024}, author = {Mackay, DS}, title = {Future tree mortality is impossible to observe, but a new model reveals why tropical tree traits matter more than climate change variability for predicting hydraulic failure.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.20049}, pmid = {39136132}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {DE-SC0023019//United States Department of Energy/ ; IOS-1547786//National Science Foundation/ ; }, }
@article {pmid39135644, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, FG and Liang, F and Wu, K and Xie, L and Zhao, G and Wang, Y}, title = {The potential habitat of Angelica dahurica in China under climate change scenario predicted by Maxent model.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1388099}, pmid = {39135644}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Since the 20th century, global climate has been recognized as the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of plants. Angelica dahurica (A. dahurica) has been in great demand as a medicinal herb and flavoring, but the lack of seed sources has hindered its development. In this study, we utilized the Maxent model combined with Geographic Information System (GIS) to predict the potential habitat of A. dahurica in China based on its geographical distribution and 22 environmental factors. This prediction will serve as a valuable reference for the utilization and conservation of A. dahurica resources.The results indicated that: (1) the Maxent model exhibited high accuracy in predicting the potential habitat area of A. dahurica, with a mean value of the area under the ROC curve (AUC) at 0.879 and a TSS value above 0.6; (2) The five environmental variables with significant effects were bio6 (Min temperature of the coldest month), bio12 (Annual Precipitation), bio17 (Precipitation of Driest Quarter), elevation, and slope, contributing to a cumulative total of 89.6%. Suitable habitats for A. dahurica were identified in provinces such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Sichuan, Hunan, and others. The total area of suitable habitat was projected to increase, with expansion primarily in middle and high latitudes, while areas of decrease were concentrated in lower latitudes. Under future climate change scenarios, the centers of mass of suitable areas for A. dahurica were predicted to shift towards higher latitudes in the 2050s and 2090s, particularly towards the North China Plain and Northeast Plain. Overall, it holds great significance to utilize the Maxent model to predict the development and utilization of A. dahurica germplasm resources in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39134274, year = {2024}, author = {Peng, X and Chen, D and Zhen, J and Wang, Y and Hu, X}, title = {Greenhouse gas emissions and drivers of the global warming potential of vineyards under different irrigation and fertilizer management practices.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {950}, number = {}, pages = {175447}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175447}, pmid = {39134274}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In the context of global warming and low water and fertilizer utilization efficiency in vineyards, identifying the driving factors of global warming potential (GWP) and proper irrigation and fertilization management strategies are crucial for high grape yields and emission reduction. In this experiment, drip fertigation technology was used, including three irrigation levels (W3 (100% M, where M is the irrigation quota), W2 (75% M) and W1 (50% M)) and four fertilization levels (F3 (648 kg hm[-2]), F2 (486 kg hm[-2]), F1 (324 kg hm[-2]) and F0 (0 kg hm[-2])). Traditional furrow irrigation and fertilization (CG) and rainfed (CK) treatments were used as control treatments. The results indicated that under the drip fertigation system, fertilization significantly increased the grape leaf chlorophyll relative content (SPAD) and leaf area index (LAI) within a fertilizer application of 0-486 kg hm[-2]. Irrigation primarily had a direct positive effect on the water-filled pore space (WFPS) in the 0-60 cm soil layer, and the residual soil nutrient content was mainly affected by fertilization. The vital stage for reducing greenhouse gas emissions was the fruit-inflating and fruit-rendering stages. The CG treatment not only failed to ensure high grape yield but also adversely affected the soil environment and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the vineyard. Fertilization had a direct positive effect on the grape SPAD, LAI, yield, and soil residual nutrient content. GWP was primarily directly driven by SPAD, WFPS, and soil residual nutrient content, while grape yield was primarily directly driven by fertilization and SPAD. In conclusion, the W2F2 treatment (25 % reduced irrigation and 486 kg hm[-2] of fertilization) of drip fertigation in the vineyard was the preferred irrigation and fertilizer management strategy for maintaining good vine vigor and balancing grape yield and environmental benefits.}, }
@article {pmid39134152, year = {2024}, author = {Ogunbode, CA and Salmela-Aro, K and Maran, DA and van den Broek, K and Doran, R and Lins, S and Torres-Marín, J and Navarro-Carrillo, G and Rocchi, G and Schermer, JA}, title = {Do neuroticism and efficacy beliefs moderate the relationship between climate change worry and mental wellbeing?.}, journal = {Journal of affective disorders}, volume = {364}, number = {}, pages = {37-40}, doi = {10.1016/j.jad.2024.08.018}, pmid = {39134152}, issn = {1573-2517}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Research on the nature and prevalence of phenomena like climate anxiety (or eco-anxiety) is increasing rapidly but there is little understanding of the conditions under which climate change worry becomes more or less likely to significantly impact mental wellbeing. Here, we considered two plausible moderators of the relationship between climate change worry and mental wellbeing: neuroticism and efficacy beliefs.<br><br>METHODS: Analysis was conducted with survey data gathered in six European countries in autumn 2019. Participants were recruited from universities in the participating countries using opportunity sampling.<br><br>RESULTS: We found that climate change worry is negatively related to mental wellbeing at any level of perceived efficacy. In contrast, climate change worry is only significantly related to mental wellbeing at low and average levels of neuroticism. High neuroticism appears to have a masking, rather than amplifying, role in the relationship between climate change worry and mental wellbeing.<br><br>LIMITATIONS: The cross-sectional design of the study precludes verification of causal relationships among variables. The brief measure of neuroticism employed also did not allow for nuanced analysis of how different facets of neuroticism contribute to the observed interaction with climate change worry. Findings cannot be indiscriminately generalised to less privileged groups facing the worst impacts of the climate crisis.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our findings lend to a view that harmful impacts of climate change worry on mental wellbeing cannot simply be ascribed to dispositional traits like neuroticism. We advocate for interventions that tackle negative climate-related emotions as unique psychological stressors.}, }
@article {pmid39133540, year = {2024}, author = {Iyengar, MS and Block Ngaybe, MG and Gonzalez, M and Arora, M}, title = {Resilience Informatics: Role of Informatics in Enabling and Promoting Public Health Resilience to Pandemics, Climate Change, and Other Stressors.}, journal = {Interactive journal of medical research}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {e54687}, doi = {10.2196/54687}, pmid = {39133540}, issn = {1929-073X}, abstract = {Climate change, local epidemics, future pandemics, and forced displacements pose significant public health threats worldwide. To cope successfully, people and communities are faced with the challenging task of developing resilience to these stressors. Our viewpoint is that the powerful capabilities of modern informatics technologies including artificial intelligence, biomedical and environmental sensors, augmented or virtual reality, data science, and other digital hardware or software, have great potential to promote, sustain, and support resilience in people and communities. However, there is no "one size fits all" solution for resilience. Solutions must match the specific effects of the stressor, cultural dimensions, social determinants of health, technology infrastructure, and many other factors.}, }
@article {pmid39132714, year = {2024}, author = {Quan, PQ and Guo, PL and He, J and Liu, XD}, title = {Heat-stress memory enhances the acclimation of a migratory insect pest to global warming.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e17493}, doi = {10.1111/mec.17493}, pmid = {39132714}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {31871960//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {In the face of rising global temperatures, the mechanisms behind an organism's ability to acclimate to heat stress remain enigmatic. The rice leaf folder, Cnaphalocrocis medinalis, traditionally viewed as temperature-sensitive, paradoxically exhibits robust larval acclimation to heat stress. This study used the heat-acclimated strain HA39, developed through multigenerational exposure to 39°C during the larval stage, and the unacclimated strain HA27 reared at 27°C to unravel the transgenerational effects of heat acclimation and its regulatory mechanisms. Heat acclimation for larvae incurred a fitness cost in pupae when exposed to high temperature, yet a significant transgenerational effect surfaced, revealing heightened fitness benefit in pupae from HA39, even without additional heat exposure during larval recovery at 27°C. This transgenerational effect exhibited a short-term memory, diminishing after two recovery generations. Moreover, the effect correlated with increased superoxide dismutase (SOD) enzyme activity and expression levels of oxidoreductase genes, representing physiological and molecular foundations of heat acclimation. Heat-acclimated larvae displayed elevated DNA methylation levels, while pupae from HA39, in recovery generations, exhibited decreased methylation indicated by the upregulation of a demethylase gene and downregulation of two methyltransferase genes at high temperatures. In summary, heat acclimation induces DNA methylation, orchestrating heat-stress memory and influencing the expression levels of oxidoreductase genes and SOD activity. Heat-stress memory enhances the acclimation of the migratory insect pest to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid39132637, year = {2024}, author = {Akakpo, MG and Hagan, S and Bokpin, HA}, title = {Climate Change and Health: Perspectives From Ghana.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {8}, number = {8}, pages = {e2024GH001030}, pmid = {39132637}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Climate change is impacting many aspects of human life in many ways. In Ghana, climate change knowledge remains low and discussions linking climate change and health are scarce. In this paper, authors contribute to the shaping of discussions about climate and health with a focus on how climate change increases certain ailments. First, the paper addresses the need for research in Ghanaian communities to link climate change and health. Second, the paper suggests the development of policies to address the link. Third, public health educators are advised in this paper to educate the public.}, }
@article {pmid39131722, year = {2024}, author = {Leddin, D}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change, Pollution, and Biodiversity Loss on Digestive Health and Disease.}, journal = {Gastro hep advances}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {519-534}, pmid = {39131722}, issn = {2772-5723}, abstract = {The environment is changing rapidly under pressure from 3 related drivers: climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss. These environmental changes are affecting digestive health and disease in multiple ways. Heat extremes can cause intestinal and hepatic dysfunction. Access to adequate amounts of food of high nutritional content and to clean water is under threat. Extreme weather is associated with flooding and enteric infections and affects the delivery of care through infrastructure loss. Air, water, and soil pollution from chemicals and plastics are emerging as risk factors for a variety of intestinal diseases including eosinophilic esophagitis, metabolic dysfunction associated fatty liver disease, digestive tract cancers, inflammatory bowel disease, and functional bowel disease. Migration of populations to cities and between countries poses a special challenge to the delivery of digestive care. The response to the threat of environmental change is well underway in the global digestive health community, especially with regard to understanding and reducing the environmental impact of endoscopy. Individuals, and peer societies, are becoming more engaged, and have an important role to play in meeting the challenge.}, }
@article {pmid39131708, year = {2024}, author = {Leddin, D and Rustgi, VK and Srinivasan, S}, title = {Climate Change and Digestive Health.}, journal = {Gastro hep advances}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {445}, doi = {10.1016/j.gastha.2024.03.014}, pmid = {39131708}, issn = {2772-5723}, }
@article {pmid39130470, year = {2024}, author = {Jung, M and Kim, J and Kim, EY and Yoo, C and Ko, D and Lee, H and Chae, Y and Kim, YM and Yi, G}, title = {Climate change impacts on Allium crop production: Insights from long-term observations in South Korea.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {14}, pages = {e34749}, pmid = {39130470}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change is an imminent threat, particularly affecting agricultural productivity, which relies heavily on weather conditions. Understanding the specific impacts of climate change on key crops is crucial for developing effective adaptation strategies to ensure food security. The growth patterns of onions and garlic were observed at over ten different locations in South Korea, and the yield data from the past 40 years were analyzed. The yield was significantly correlated with temperature and strongly affected by the frequent and unexpected patterns of precipitation. The increase in mean temperature during winter and the spatial and temporal concentration of precipitation are expected to be the most influential factors for Allium crop production in the future. In addition, the yields of onions and garlic can serve as good indicators for predicting the impacts of weather on agricultural productivity, given their extended cultivation periods and significant correlations with temperature and precipitation. As climate change scenarios become available, the results of this study can serve as a basis for predicting changes in agricultural production in the future and identifying opportunities to adapt cultivation systems for food security.}, }
@article {pmid39129214, year = {2024}, author = {Hanneman, K and Nguyen, ET and Kielar, A}, title = {Climate Change, Health Equity, and Environmentally Sustainable Radiology.}, journal = {Canadian Association of Radiologists journal = Journal l'Association canadienne des radiologistes}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {8465371241274183}, doi = {10.1177/08465371241274183}, pmid = {39129214}, issn = {1488-2361}, }
@article {pmid39128869, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, J and He, W and Xia, Z and Wu, K and Fang, W and Ma, Z and Liu, M and Bi, J}, title = {Measuring climate change perception in China using mental images: A nationwide open-ended survey.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.17631}, pmid = {39128869}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {BX20230159//National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents/ ; BK20220014//Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province/ ; BK20220125//Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province/ ; 71921003//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 72222012//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 72234003//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 72304136//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Current knowledge about public climate change perception mainly covers belief, concern, and attitudes. However, how this discourse is interpreted using individuals' own frame of reference remains largely unknown, particularly in many large emitters from non-Annex I countries such as China. This study, for the first time, performs a nationwide open-ended survey covering 4,037 respondents and collected 12,100 textual answers. Using a semiautomated coding method, we find seven mental images that exclusively represent the Chinese interpretation of the climate change issue, including global warming, distant icons, natural disasters, environmental degradation, cause, solution, and weather. Analysis of influencing factors shows that females, those with lower education levels, lower income, and older individuals tend to connect climate change with natural weather phenomena. Younger and well-educated residents in developed cities are more aware of various consequences and anthropogenic causes of climate change. People with stronger climate change beliefs, policy support, and personal experience of extreme weather are more likely to mention disastrous impacts, carbon emission as causes, and potential solutions. Employing the multilevel regression and post-stratification technique, we map the prevalence of mental images in China at the prefecture-city level. The results reveal significant geographical heterogeneity, with estimated national means ranging from a high of 55% (weather) to a low of 11% (solution). Our findings reveal diverse perspectives and a widespread misconception of climate change in China, suggesting the need for tailored clarification strategies to gain public consent.}, }
@article {pmid39128359, year = {2024}, author = {Shang, X and Qin, W and Yang, B and Dai, Q and Pan, H and Yang, X and Gu, X and Yang, Z and Zhang, Z and Zhang, L}, title = {Integrated framework for dynamic conservation of bamboo forest in giant panda habitat under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {368}, number = {}, pages = {122052}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122052}, pmid = {39128359}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change presents formidable challenges to forest biodiversity and carbon storage. Bamboo forests will be affected particularly in Southwest China's mountainous regions. Bamboo serves as not only a key food resource and habitat for giant panda Ailuropoda melanoleuca but also a potential carbon sink due to its rapid energy-to-matter conversion capability. We employ the MaxEnt model to project the distribution shifts of 20 giant panda foraged bamboo species in Sichuan Province under future climate scenarios, utilizing climate data of 30m resolution. Based on the changes in the diversity and distribution area of bamboo communities caused by climate change, the changing of giant pandas' food resources and the carbon storage of bamboo forests were calculated. The results indicated that the area of bamboo communities is projected to expand by 17.94%-60.88% more than now by the end of the 21st century. We analyzed the energy balance between the dietary needs of giant pandas and the energy provided by bamboo. We predicted that bamboo communities from 2000 to 2150 could support the continuous growth of the giant panda population (6533 wild individuals by 2140-2150 in an ideal state in Sichuan province). However, the species diversity and carbon storage of bamboo forests face out-of-sync fluctuations, both temporally and spatially. This is a critical issue for subalpine forest ecosystem management under climate change. Therefore, we propose a dynamic conservation management framework for giant panda habitats across spatial and temporal scales. This framework aims to facilitate the adaptation of subalpine forest ecosystems to climate change. This innovative approach, which integrates climate change into the conservation strategy for endangered species, contributes a conservation perspective to global climate action, highlighting the interconnectedness of biodiversity preservation and climate mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid39127708, year = {2024}, author = {Martínez-Barradas, V and Galbiati, M and Barco-Rubio, F and Paolo, D and Espinoza, C and Cominelli, E and Arce-Johnson, P}, title = {PvMYB60 gene, a candidate for drought tolerance improvement in common bean in a climate change context.}, journal = {Biological research}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, pages = {52}, pmid = {39127708}, issn = {0717-6287}, support = {739582//Consejo Nacional de Humanidades Ciencias y Tecnolog&#xed;as (MX)/ ; 21200394//Agencia Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n y Desarrollo/ ; Anillos de Investigaci&#xf3;n ANID 2023 ATE23007//Agencia Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n y Desarrollo/ ; FOSC-288//ERA-NET co-funding on Food Systems and Climate (FOSC) BIO-BELIEF project/ ; }, mesh = {*Droughts ; *Climate Change ; *Phaseolus/genetics/physiology ; Transcription Factors/genetics ; Plant Stomata/genetics/physiology ; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant/genetics ; Plant Proteins/genetics ; Arabidopsis/genetics/physiology ; Drought Resistance ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) is one of the main nutritional resources in the world, and a low environmental impact source of protein. However, the majority of its cultivation areas are affected by drought and this scenario is only expected to worsen with climate change. Stomatal closure is one of the most important plant responses to drought and the MYB60 transcription factor is among the key elements regulating stomatal aperture. If targeting and mutating the MYB60 gene of common bean would be a valuable strategy to establish more drought-tolerant beans was therefore investigated.<br><br>RESULTS: The MYB60 gene of common bean, with orthology to the Arabidopsis AtMYB60 gene, was found to have conserved regions with MYB60 typical motifs and architecture. Stomata-specific expression of PvMYB60 was further confirmed by q-RT PCR on organs containing stomata, and stomata-enriched leaf fractions. Further, function of PvMYB60 in promoting stomata aperture was confirmed by complementing the defective phenotype of a previously described Arabidopsis myb60-1 mutant.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study finally points PvMYB60 as a potential target for obtaining more drought-tolerant common beans in the present context of climate change which would further greatly contribute to food security particularly in drought-prone countries.}, }
@article {pmid39124227, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, D and Guo, M and Liu, S and Li, Y and Dong, Q and Gong, X and Ge, J and Wu, F and Feng, H}, title = {Spatiotemporal Evolution of Winter Wheat Planting Area and Meteorology-Driven Effects on Yield under Climate Change in Henan Province of China.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {39124227}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {7502-75059//Key Research and Development and Promotion Special Project (Science and Technology Targeted) of Henan Province/ ; }, abstract = {This study examines the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in Henan Province. The analysis, under the utilization of GLASS LAI data, focuses on shifts in the planting areas of winter wheat. In addition, a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal trends in meteorological factors during the winter wheat growth period has also been conducted. The findings reveal a fluctuating increase in accumulated temperature across Henan Province, ranging from 3145 °C to 3424 °C and exhibiting a gradual rise from north to south. In particular, precipitation patterns from 1980 to 2019 showed limited significant trends, while notable abrupt changes were observed in 1983, 2004, 2009, and 2016. Geographically, southwestern Henan Province experiences greater precipitation than the northeast. Moreover, a fluctuating downward trend in sunshine hours has been observed, gradually decreasing from north to south. The study further highlights an increase in winter wheat planting frequency in the northwestern region of Luoyang and the northeastern part of Zhumadian, contrasted by a decrease in Zhengzhou and Kaifeng. Accumulated temperature is positively correlated with the expansion of winter wheat planting areas (R[2] = 0.685), while sunshine hours exert a suppressive effect (R[2] = 0.637). Among meteorological factors, accumulated temperature emerges as the most crucial determinant, followed by precipitation, with sunshine hours having a relatively minor influence. Yield demonstrates a positive association with accumulated temperature (R[2] = 0.765) and a negative correlation with sunshine hours (R[2] = -0.614). This finding is consistent with the impact of meteorological factors on winter wheat production. The results of this study enhance the understanding of how the underlying mechanisms of climate change impact crop yields.}, }
@article {pmid39122479, year = {2024}, author = {Hertzog, L and Charlson, F and Tschakert, P and Morgan, GG and Norman, R and Pereira, G and Hanigan, IC}, title = {Suicide deaths associated with climate change-induced heat anomalies in Australia: a time series regression analysis.}, journal = {BMJ mental health}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {1-8}, doi = {10.1136/bmjment-2024-301131}, pmid = {39122479}, issn = {2755-9734}, mesh = {Humans ; Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; *Suicide/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Adult ; Aged ; *Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Regression Analysis ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although environmental determinants play an important role in suicide mortality, the quantitative influence of climate change-induced heat anomalies on suicide deaths remains relatively underexamined.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The objective is to quantify the impact of climate change-induced heat anomalies on suicide deaths in Australia from 2000 to 2019.<br><br>METHODS: A time series regression analysis using a generalised additive model was employed to explore the potentially non-linear relationship between temperature anomalies and suicide, incorporating structural variables such as sex, age, season and geographic region. Suicide deaths data were obtained from the Australian National Mortality Database, and gridded climate data of gridded surface temperatures were sourced from the Australian Gridded Climate Dataset.<br><br>FINDINGS: Heat anomalies in the study period were between 0.02&#xb0;C and 2.2&#xb0;C hotter than the historical period due to climate change. Our analysis revealed that approximately 0.5% (264 suicides, 95%&#x2009;CI 257 to 271) of the total 50&#x2009;733 suicides within the study period were attributable to climate change-induced heat anomalies. Death counts associated with heat anomalies were statistically significant (p value 0.03) among men aged 55+ years old. Seasonality was a significant factor, with increased deaths during spring and summer. The relationship between high heat anomalies and suicide deaths varied across different demographic segments.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: This study highlights the measurable impact of climate change-induced heat anomalies on suicide deaths in Australia, emphasising the need for increased climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in public health planning and suicide prevention efforts focusing on older adult men. The findings underscore the importance of considering environmental factors in addition to individual-level factors in understanding and reducing suicide mortality.}, }
@article {pmid39120684, year = {2024}, author = {Veronese, N}, title = {Editor's note: Climate change and health in aging populations.}, journal = {Aging clinical and experimental research}, volume = {36}, number = {1}, pages = {164}, pmid = {39120684}, issn = {1720-8319}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Aging/physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid39120149, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, C and Qiu, Z and Wang, S and Shen, H and Ma, X}, title = {Effects of climate change and deep fertilization on the growth and yield of winter wheat in the Loess Plateau of China.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.13798}, pmid = {39120149}, issn = {1097-0010}, support = {52179048//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2022YFD1900803//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global temperature is projected to rise continuously under climate change, negatively impacting the growth and yield of winter wheat. Optimizing traditional agricultural measures is necessary to mitigate potential winter wheat yield losses caused by future climate change. This study aims to explore the variations in winter wheat growth and yield on the Loess Plateau of China under future climate change, identify the key meteorological factors affecting winter wheat growth and yield, and analyze the differences in winter wheat yield and root characteristics under different fertilization depths.<br><br>RESULTS: Meteorological data from 20 General Circulation Models were applied to drive the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer model, simulating the future growth characteristics of winter wheat under various fertilization depths. The Random Forest model was used to determine the relative importance of meteorological factors influencing winter wheat yield, root length density and leaf area index. The results showed that temperature and high emission concentration were primary factors influencing crop yield under future climate change. The temperature increase projected from 2021 to 2100 would be anticipated to shorten the phenology period of winter wheat by 2-16&#x2009;days and reduce grain yield by 2.9-12.7% compared to the period from 1981 to 2020. Conversely, the root length density and root weight of winter wheat would increase by 1.2-10.9% and 0.2-24.1%, respectively, in the future, and excessive allocation of root system resources was identified as a key factor contributing to the reduction in winter wheat yield. Compared with the shallow fertilization treatment (N5), the deep fertilization treatments (N15 and N25) increased the proportion of roots in the deep soil layer (30-60&#x2009;cm) by 2.7-10.2%. Because of the improvement in root structure, the decline in winter wheat yield under deep fertilization treatments in the future is expected to be reduced by 1.2% to 6.5%, whereas water use efficiency increases by 1.1% to 2.4% compared to the shallow fertilization treatment.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The deep fertilization treatment can enhance the root structure of winter wheat and increase the proportion of roots in the deep soil layer, thereby effectively mitigating the decline in winter wheat yield under future climate change. Overall, optimizing fertilization depth effectively addresses the reduced winter wheat yield risks and agricultural production challenges under future climate change. &#xa9; 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid39119507, year = {2023}, author = {Miousse, IR and Hale, RB and Alsbrook, S and Boysen, G and Broadnax, T and Murry, C and Williams, C and Park, CH and Richards, R and Reedy, J and Chalbot, MC and Kavouras, IG and Koturbash, I}, title = {Climate Change and New Challenges for Rural Communities: Particulate Matter Matters.}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {15}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {39119507}, issn = {2071-1050}, support = {KL2 TR000063/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; UL1 TR000039/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change presents multiple challenges to rural communities. Here, we investigated the toxicological potential of the six types of particulate matter most common to rural Arkansas: soil, road, and agricultural dusts, pollen, traffic exhaust, and particles from biomass burning in human small airway epithelial cells (SAECs). Biomass burning and agricultural dust demonstrated the most potent toxicological responses, exhibited as significant (p < 0.05) up-regulation of HMOX1 (oxidative stress) and TNFα (inflammatory response) genes as well as epigenetic alterations (altered expression of DNA methyltransferases DNMT1, DNMT3A, and DNMT3B, enzymatic activity, and DNA methylation of alpha satellite elements) that were evident at both 24 h and 72 h of exposure. We further demonstrate evidence of aridification in the state of Arkansas and the presence of winds capable of transporting agricultural dust- and biomass burning-associated particles far beyond their origination. Partnerships in the form of citizen science projects may provide important solutions to prevent and mitigate the negative effects of the rapidly evolving climate and improve the well-being of rural communities. Furthermore, the identification of the most toxic types of particulate matter could inform local policies related to agriculture, biomass burning, and dust control.}, }
@article {pmid39117952, year = {2024}, author = {Lang, PLM and Erberich, JM and Lopez, L and Weiß, CL and Amador, G and Fung, HF and Latorre, SM and Lasky, JR and Burbano, HA and Expósito-Alonso, M and Bergmann, DC}, title = {Century-long timelines of herbarium genomes predict plant stomatal response to climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39117952}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {LT000330/2019-L//Human Frontier Science Program (HFSP)/ ; T32GM007276//U.S. Department of Health &amp; Human Services | National Institutes of Health (NIH)/ ; T32 5T32GM007790//U.S. Department of Health &amp; Human Services | National Institutes of Health (NIH)/ ; R35 GM138300/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; 1DP5OD029506-01//U.S. Department of Health &amp; Human Services | National Institutes of Health (NIH)/ ; BIO-BRC 2217793//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; DGE-1656518//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; Stanford Graduate Fellowship//Stanford University (SU)/ ; Funding for the Department of Molecular Biology of the MPI for Biology led by Detlef Weigel//Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (Max Planck Society)/ ; Funding for the Department of Molecular Biology of the MPI for Biology led by Detlef Weigel//Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (Max Planck Society)/ ; RSWF\R1\191011//Royal Society/ ; Philip Leverhulme Prize//Leverhulme Trust/ ; Investigator//Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI)/ ; DE-SC0021286//U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)/ ; }, abstract = {Dissecting plant responses to the environment is key to understanding whether and how plants adapt to anthropogenic climate change. Stomata, plants' pores for gas exchange, are expected to decrease in density following increased CO2 concentrations, a trend already observed in multiple plant species. However, it is unclear whether such responses are based on genetic changes and evolutionary adaptation. Here we make use of extensive knowledge of 43 genes in the stomatal development pathway and newly generated genome information of 191 Arabidopsis thaliana historical herbarium specimens collected over 193 years to directly link genetic variation with climate change. While we find that the essential transcription factors SPCH, MUTE and FAMA, central to stomatal development, are under strong evolutionary constraints, several regulators of stomatal development show signs of local adaptation in contemporary samples from different geographic regions. We then develop a functional score based on known effects of gene knock-out on stomatal development that recovers a classic pattern of stomatal density decrease over the past centuries, suggesting a genetic component contributing to this change. This approach combining historical genomics with functional experimental knowledge could allow further investigations of how different, even in historical samples unmeasurable, cellular plant phenotypes may have already responded to climate change through adaptive evolution.}, }
@article {pmid39117230, year = {2024}, author = {Bieroza, MZ and Hallberg, L and Livsey, J and Wynants, M}, title = {Climate change accelerates water and biogeochemical cycles in temperate agricultural catchments.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175365}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175365}, pmid = {39117230}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to significantly deteriorate water quality in heavily managed agricultural landscapes, however, the exact mechanisms of these impacts are unknown. In this study we adopted a modelling approach to predict the multiple effects of climate change on hydrological and biogeochemical responses for dominant solutes and particulates in two agriculture-dominated temperate headwater catchments. We used climatic projections from three climatic models to simulate future flows, mobilisation and delivery of solutes and particulates. This allowed an examination of potential drivers by identifying changes in flow pathway distribution and key environmental variables. We found that future climate conditions will lead to a general increase in stream discharge as well as higher concentrations and loads of solutes and particulates. However, unlike previous studies, we observed a higher magnitude of change during the warmer part of the year. These changes will reduce the relative importance of winter flows on solute and particulate transport, leading to both higher and more evenly distributed concentrations and loads between seasons. We linked these changes to the higher importance of superficial flow pathways of tile and surface runoff driven by more rapid transition from extremely wet to dry conditions. Overall, the observed increase in solute and particulate mobilisation and delivery will lead to widespread water quality deterioration. Mitigation of this deterioration would require adequate management efforts to address the direct and indirect negative effects on stream biota and water scarcity.}, }
@article {pmid39117205, year = {2024}, author = {Kopáček, J and Brahney, J and Kaňa, J and Kopáček, M and Porcal, P and Stuchlík, E}, title = {The concentration of organic nitrogen in mountain lakes is increasing as a result of reduced acid deposition and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175363}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175363}, pmid = {39117205}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The ionic and nutrient composition of mountain lakes recovering from atmospheric acidification is increasingly influenced by climate change (increasing air temperature and frequency of heavy rainfall events). We investigated the evolution of organic nitrogen (ON), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and phosphorus (P) concentrations in alpine lakes in the Tatra Mountains (Central Europe) between 1993 and 2023, resulting from changes in climate and the ionic composition of atmospheric deposition. Our results suggest that the decreasing acidity of precipitation and the climatically induced increasing frequency of heavy rainfall events and air temperatures fluctuating around the freezing point have the potential to increase ON concentrations in alpine lakes despite decreasing deposition of inorganic N. The increasing ON involves its allochthonous and autochthonous sources: (1) increased co-export of ON with DOC from soils in dissolved organic matter due to less acidic precipitation and more frequent heavy rainfall events and (2) increased in-lake primary productivity (chlorophyll a) associated with higher P availability. Based on our previous studies, we hypothesize that P availability has increased due to (i) reduced adsorption of phosphate in precipitation to the metal hydroxides in the soil-adsorption complex as a result of increasing pH in precipitation and soil water and (ii) increased P production by weathering due to climate-induced increased mechanical erosion of rocks in unstable scree areas. The extent of these changes was related to the percentage cover of scree areas and meadow soils in the lake catchments. In addition, our results suggest that ON (besides chlorophyll a) may be a more sensitive indicator of increasing productivity of oligotrophic alpine lakes under changing air pollution and climate than generally low P concentrations and their poorly detectable trends.}, }
@article {pmid39116610, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, X and Zhang, J and Wu, Y and Yu, Y and Sun, J and Mao, D and Zhang, G}, title = {Intensified effect of nitrogen forms on dominant phytoplankton species succession by climate change.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {264}, number = {}, pages = {122214}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2024.122214}, pmid = {39116610}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {Nutrient proportion, light intensity, and temperature affect the succession of dominant phytoplankton species. Despite these insights, this transformation mechanism in highly turbid lakes remains a research gap, especially in response to climate change. To fill this gap, we investigated the mechanism by which multi-environmental factors influence the succession of dominant phytoplankton species in Lake Chagan. This investigation deployed the structural equation model (SEM) and the hydrodynamic-water quality-water ecology mechanism model. Results demonstrated that the dominant phytoplankton species in Lake Chagan transformed from diatom to cyanobacteria during 2012 and 2022. Notably, Microcystis was detected in 2022. SEM revealed the primary environment variables for this succession, including water temperature (Tw), nutrients (total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and ammonia nitrogen (NH4N)), and total suspended solids (TSS). Moreover, this event was not the consequence of zooplankton grazing. An integrated hydrodynamic-water quality-bloom mechanism model was built to explore the mechanism driving phytoplankton succession and its response to climate change. Nutrients determined the phytoplankton biomass and dominant species succession based on various proportions. High NH4N:NO3N ratios favored cyanobacteria and inhibited diatom under high TSS. Additionally, the biomass proportions of diatom (30.77 % vs. 22.28 %) and green (30.56 % vs. 23.30 %) decreased dramatically. In contrast, cyanobacteria abundance remarkably increased (35.78 % to 51.71 %) with the increasing NH4-N:NO3-N ratios. In addition, the proportion of non-nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria was higher than that of the nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria counterparts when TN:TP≥20 and NH4N:NO3N ≥ 10. Light-limitation phenotypes also experienced an increase with the rising NH4N:NO3N ratios. Notably, the cyanobacterial biomass reached 3-6 times that in the baseline scenario when the air temperature escalated by 3.0 °C until 2061 under the SSP585 scenario. We highlighted the effect of nitrogen forms on the succession of dominant phytoplankton species. Climate warming will increase nitrogen proportion, providing an insightful reference for controlling cyanobacterial blooms.}, }
@article {pmid39115843, year = {2024}, author = {Armand, W and Padget, M and Pinsky, E and Wasfy, JH and Slutzman, JE and Duhaime, AC}, title = {Clinician Knowledge and Attitudes About Climate Change and Health After a Quality Incentive Program.}, journal = {JAMA network open}, volume = {7}, number = {8}, pages = {e2426790}, pmid = {39115843}, issn = {2574-3805}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Boston ; Physicians/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Aged ; }, abstract = {IMPORTANCE: Climate change is a fundamental threat to human health, and industries, including health care, must assess their respective contribution to this crisis.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To assess the change in knowledge of clinicians who completed a quality incentive program (QIP) measure on climate change and health care sustainability and to examine clinician attitudes toward climate change and their perception of clinical and individual relevance.<br><br>The participants in this survey study included employed physicians and psychologists who were part of a hospital physician organization in an academic medical center (AMC) in Boston, Massachusetts. The hospital physician organization provides a QIP with different measures every 6 months and provides incentive payments on completion. The study is based on a survey of participants on completion of a QIP measure focused on climate change and health care sustainability offered from July 2023 through September 2023 at the AMC.<br><br>EXPOSURE: Structured educational video modules.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: After completion of the modules, the participants reported their baseline and postintervention knowledge on climate change impacts on health and health care sustainability, perceived relevance of the material, and attitudes toward the modules using 5-point Likert scales and free-text comments. Data were analyzed using univariate and multivariable analyses including participant age, gender, and practice specialty.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 2559 eligible clinicians, 2417 (94.5%) (mean [SD] age, 48.9 [11.5] years; range, 29-85 years; 1244 males [51.5%]) participated in the measure and completed the survey. Among these participants, 1767 (73.1%) thought the modules were relevant or very relevant to their lives and 1580 (65.4%) found the modules relevant or very relevant to their clinical practice. Age was not associated with responses. Practitioners in specialties classified as climate facing were more likely to think that the education was relevant to their clinical practice compared with those in non-climate-facing specialties (mean [SD] score, 3.76 [1.19] vs 3.61 [1.26]; P&#x2009;=&#x2009;.005). Practitioners identifying as female were also more likely to consider this education as relevant to their clinical practice compared with male practitioners (mean [SD] score, 3.82 [1.17] vs 3.56 [1.27]; P&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this survey study, a high proportion of clinicians expressed positive attitudes toward education in climate change and health and health care sustainability, with some demographic and specialty variability. These data support that climate and health education in AMCs provides information that practitioners see as relevant and important.}, }
@article {pmid39114905, year = {2024}, author = {Rosado E Silva, R and Millett, C and Dittrich, S and Donato, H}, title = {The Impacts of Climate Change on the Emergence and Reemergence of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Temperate Zones: An Umbrella Review Protocol.}, journal = {Acta medica portuguesa}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.20344/amp.21355}, pmid = {39114905}, issn = {1646-0758}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Mosquito-borne diseases represent a global public health concern and are responsible for over 700 000 deaths globally every year. Additionally, many mosquito species have undergone a dramatic global expansion due to various factors, including climate change, and forecasts indicate that mosquito populations will persist in dispersing beyond their present geographic range, namely in temperate climates. The research literature on this topic has grown in recent years, including some systematic evidence synthesis. However, to provide a comprehensive overview of this growing literature needed for policy action, a summary of this evidence, including existing systematic reviews, is required. This study aims to undertake an umbrella review that explores the impacts of climate change on the emergence and reemergence of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes in temperate zones and the publication of the protocol is a fundamental step to ensure the credibility, transparency and reproducibility of this research.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Studies published in scientific journals indexed by PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Epistemonikos, and Web of Science Core Collection to be included in this umbrella review will meet the following criteria: the topic of study (climate change and mosquito-borne diseases), regions (temperate zones), study designs (systematic reviews and meta-analysis), language (any) and date (since inception until December 31st, 2023). Titles and abstracts from selected articles will be evaluated by two authors independently and any discrepancy will be resolved through consensus or, if not possible, through a third author. The data will be extracted, and the risk of bias will be evaluated. The quality of the methodology of the included reviews will be assessed using AMSTAR 2. A narrative synthesis will examine the included systematic reviews. The quality of evidence for all outcomes will be judged using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation working group methodology.}, }
@article {pmid39114175, year = {2024}, author = {da Silveira Bueno, C and Paytan, A and de Souza, CD and Franco, TT}, title = {Global warming and coastal protected areas: A study on phytoplankton abundance and sea surface temperature in different regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic Coastal Ocean.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {e11724}, pmid = {39114175}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {In this study, we examined the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and phytoplankton abundance in coastal regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic: São Paulo, Paraná, and Santa Catarina, and the Protection Area of Southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) in Santa Catarina (APA), a conservation zone established along 130 km of coastline. Using SST and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data from 2002 to 2023, we found significant differences in SST between the regions, with São Paulo having the highest SST, followed by Paraná and Santa Catarina. All locations showed a consistent increase in SST over the years, with North Santa Catarina, APA and São Paulo experiencing the lowest rate of increase. Correlation analyses between SST and Chl-a revealed a stronger inverse relationship in North Santa Catarina and APA, indicating an increased response of Chl-a to SST variations in this region. The presence of protected area appears to play an essential role in reducing the negative impacts of increasing SST. Specifically, while there is a wealth of research on the consequences of global warming on diverse coastal and oceanic areas, heterogeneity among different settings persists and the causes for this necessitating attention. Our findings have implications for both localized scientific approaches and broader climate policies, emphasizing the importance of considering coastal ecosystem resilience to climate change in future conservation and adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39111452, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, K and Wang, Y and Liu, Z and Huo, W and Cao, J and Zhao, G and Zhang, FG}, title = {Prediction of potential invasion of two weeds of the genus Avena in Asia under climate change based on Maxent.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175192}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175192}, pmid = {39111452}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Avena sterilis L. (A. sterilis) and Avena ludoviciana Dur. (A. ludoviciana) are extremely invasive weeds with strong competitive ability and multiple transmission routes. Both species can invade a variety of dryland crops, including wheat, corn, and beans. Asia, as the world's major food-producing continent, will experience significant losses to agricultural production if it is invaded by these weeds on a large scale. This study used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to map the distribution of suitable habitats of the two species in Asia under climate change conditions. The constructed model comprised four levels, with a total of 25 index-level indicator factors used to evaluate the invasion risk of the two species. The results showed that the distribution of suitable habitats for both Avena species was highly dependent on precipitation and temperature. Under climate warming conditions, although overall the total suitable area is predicted to decrease compared to the current period, there are still moderately or highly suitable areas. Asian countries need to provide early warning for areas with significant increases in moderate and highly suitable zones for these two species of weeds under the background of climate change. If there is already an invaded area or if the suitability of the original area is increased, this should be closely monitored, and control measures should be taken to prevent further spread and deterioration.}, }
@article {pmid39110385, year = {2024}, author = {Rudel, TK}, title = {Combating climate change through sustainable cattle ranching in the global south: The role of societal corporatism.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39110385}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {10009499//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {The contours of the collective action necessary to limit climate change remain difficult to discern. In this context, societal corporatist political processes, fueled by crisis narratives, have shown some promise as political devices for mobilizing people. Corporatist processes have, historically, brought political competitors like employers and labor unions together to negotiate compacts that have advanced collective goods during times of crisis. In response to the climate crisis in the Global South, affluent donor groups, state officials, some farmers, and indigenous peoples have begun to assemble corporatist-like coalitions to pursue climate stabilization. A comparative case study of efforts to promote sustainable cattle ranching through the spread of silvopastoral landscapes in Colombia and Ecuador illustrates this political dynamic, its shortcomings, and its accomplishments.}, }
@article {pmid39109475, year = {2024}, author = {Lock, MC and Ripley, DM and Smith, KLM and Mueller, CA and Shiels, HA and Crossley, DA and Galli, GLJ}, title = {Developmental plasticity of the cardiovascular system in oviparous vertebrates: effects of chronic hypoxia and interactive stressors in the context of climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {227}, number = {20}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.245530}, pmid = {39109475}, issn = {1477-9145}, support = {//The University of Manchester/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Hypoxia/physiopathology ; *Vertebrates/physiology/growth &amp; development ; *Cardiovascular System/growth &amp; development/physiopathology ; *Stress, Physiological ; Oviparity ; Adaptation, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Animals at early life stages are generally more sensitive to environmental stress than adults. This is especially true of oviparous vertebrates that develop in variable environments with little or no parental care. These organisms regularly experience environmental fluctuations as part of their natural development, but climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of these events. The developmental plasticity of oviparous vertebrates will therefore play a critical role in determining their future fitness and survival. In this Review, we discuss and compare the phenotypic consequences of chronic developmental hypoxia on the cardiovascular system of oviparous vertebrates. In particular, we focus on species-specific responses, critical windows, thresholds for responses and the interactive effects of other stressors, such as temperature and hypercapnia. Although important progress has been made, our Review identifies knowledge gaps that need to be addressed if we are to fully understand the impact of climate change on the developmental plasticity of the oviparous vertebrate cardiovascular system.}, }
@article {pmid39108127, year = {2024}, author = {Weinstein, P and Bi, P and Stanhope, J}, title = {Climate change adaptation must not replicate lockdown scenarios.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {144}, number = {4}, pages = {208-209}, doi = {10.1177/17579139241231130}, pmid = {39108127}, issn = {1757-9147}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; COVID-19/prevention &amp; control/epidemiology ; Quarantine ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, }
@article {pmid39107562, year = {2024}, author = {Moutinho, S}, title = {Doctors prepare for the "enormous health consequences" of climate change.}, journal = {Nature medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39107562}, issn = {1546-170X}, }
@article {pmid39107423, year = {2024}, author = {Ramdani, F and Setiani, P and Sianturi, R}, title = {Towards understanding climate change impacts: monitoring the vegetation dynamics of terrestrial national parks in Indonesia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {18257}, pmid = {39107423}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Indonesia ; *Parks, Recreational ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Seasons ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Ecosystem ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Monitoring vegetation dynamics in terrestrial national parks (TNPs) is crucial for ensuring sustainable environmental management and mitigating the potential negative impacts of short- and long-term disturbances understanding the effect of climate change within natural and protected areas. This study aims to monitor the vegetation dynamics of TNPs in Indonesia by first categorizing them into the regions of Sumatra, Jawa, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Eastern Indonesia and then applying ready-to-use MODIS EVI time-series imageries (MOD13Q1) taken from 2000 to 2022 on the GEE cloud-computing platform. Specifically, this research investigates the greening and browning fraction trends using Sen's slope, considers seasonality by analyzing the maximum and minimum EVI values, and assesses anomalous years by comparing the annual time series and long-term median EVI value. The findings reveal significantly increasing greening trends in most TNPs, except Danau Sentarum, from 2000 to 2022. The seasonality analysis shows that most TNPs exhibit peak and trough greenness at the end of the rainy and dry seasons, respectively, as the vegetation response to precipitation increases and decreases. Anomalies in seasonality that is affected by climate change was detected in all of the regions. To increase TNPs resilience, suggested measures include active reforestation and implementation of Assisted Natural Regeneration, strengthen the enforcement of fundamental managerial task, and forest fire management.}, }
@article {pmid39107182, year = {2024}, author = {Bignier, C and Havet, L and Brisoux, M and Omeiche, C and Misra, S and Gonsard, A and Drummond, D}, title = {Climate change and children's respiratory health.}, journal = {Paediatric respiratory reviews}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.prrv.2024.07.002}, pmid = {39107182}, issn = {1526-0550}, abstract = {Climate change has significant consequences for children's respiratory health. Rising temperatures and extreme weather events increase children's exposure to allergens, mould, and air pollutants. Children are particularly vulnerable to these airborne particles due to their higher ventilation per unit of body weight, more frequent mouth breathing, and outdoor activities. Children with asthma and cystic fibrosis are at particularly high risk, with increased risks of exacerbation, but the effects of climate change could also be observed in the general population, with a risk of impaired lung development and growth. Mitigation measures, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions by healthcare professionals and healthcare systems, and adaptation measures, such as limiting outdoor activities during pollution peaks, are essential to preserve children's respiratory health. The mobilisation of society as a whole, including paediatricians, is crucial to limit the impact of climate change on children's respiratory health.}, }
@article {pmid39106949, year = {2024}, author = {Worton, AJ and Norman, RA and Gilbert, L and Porter, RB}, title = {GIS-ODE: linking dynamic population models with GIS to predict pathogen vector abundance across a country under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society, Interface}, volume = {21}, number = {217}, pages = {20240004}, pmid = {39106949}, issn = {1742-5662}, mesh = {Animals ; *Geographic Information Systems ; *Climate Change ; Scotland ; *Models, Biological ; *Ixodes/physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Humans ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Mechanistic mathematical models such as ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have a long history for their use in describing population dynamics and determining estimates of key parameters that summarize the potential growth or decline of a population over time. More recently, geographic information systems (GIS) have become important tools to provide a visual representation of statistically determined parameters and environmental features over space. Here, we combine these tools to form a 'GIS-ODE' approach to generate spatiotemporal maps predicting how projected changes in thermal climate may affect population densities and, uniquely, population dynamics of Ixodes ricinus, an important tick vector of several human pathogens. Assuming habitat and host densities are not greatly affected by climate warming, the GIS-ODE model predicted that, even under the lowest projected temperature increase, I. ricinus nymph densities could increase by 26-99% in Scotland, depending on the habitat and climate of the location. Our GIS-ODE model provides the vector-borne disease research community with a framework option to produce predictive, spatially explicit risk maps based on a mechanistic understanding of vector and vector-borne disease transmission dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid39105284, year = {2024}, author = {van der Deure, T and Maes, T and Huyse, T and Stensgaard, AS}, title = {Climate change could fuel urinary schistosomiasis transmission in Africa and Europe.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {e17434}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17434}, pmid = {39105284}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {16-11-1898//Knud H&#xf8;jgaards Fond/ ; 20-11-0483//Knud H&#xf8;jgaards Fond/ ; 101000365//European Union's Horizon 2020/ ; 1S86319N//Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; Europe ; *Schistosomiasis haematobia/transmission/epidemiology ; Africa/epidemiology ; Bulinus/parasitology ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Snails/parasitology/physiology ; Animal Distribution ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The freshwater snail Bulinus truncatus is an important intermediate host for trematode parasites causing urogenital schistosomiasis, a tropical disease affecting over 150 million people. Despite its medical importance, uncertainty remains about its global distribution and the potential impacts of climate change on its future spread. Here, we investigate the distribution of B. truncatus, combining the outputs of correlative and mechanistic modelling methods to fully capitalize on both experimental and occurrence data of the species and to create a more reliable distribution forecast than ever constructed. We constructed ensemble correlative species distribution models using 273 occurrence points collected from different sources and a combination of climatic and (bio)physical environmental variables. Additionally, a mechanistic thermal suitability model was constructed, parameterized by recent life-history data obtained through extensive lab-based snail-temperature experiments and supplemented with an extensive literature review. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for B. truncatus encompasses the Sahel region, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean segment of Africa, stretching from Southern Europe to Mozambique. Regions identified as suitable by both methods generally coincide with areas exhibiting high urogenital schistosomiasis prevalence. Model projections into the future suggest an overall net increase in suitable area of up to 17%. New suitable habitat is in Southern Europe, the Middle East, and large parts of Central Africa, while suitable habitat will be lost in the Sahel region. The change in snail habitat suitability may substantially increase the risk of urogenital schistosomiasis transmission in parts of Africa and Southern Europe while reducing it in the Sahel region.}, }
@article {pmid39105254, year = {2024}, author = {Mani, ZA and Naylor, K and Goniewicz, K}, title = {Essential competencies of nurses for climate change response in Saudi Arabia: A rapid literature review.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jan.16372}, pmid = {39105254}, issn = {1365-2648}, abstract = {AIM: Amidst the mounting challenges posed by climate change, the healthcare sector emerges as a vital frontliner, with nurses standing as its linchpins. This review delves into the pivotal role of nurses in combatting the health consequences of climatic alterations, particularly within the nuanced environment of Saudi Arabia.<br><br>DESIGN: A rapid literature review.<br><br>METHOD: Drawing from a rigorous analysis of 53 studies, our exploration revolves around the preparedness strategies formulated in response to Saudi Arabia's changing climate. The variables analysed included study design, sample size, focus area, geographical coverage and key findings related to nurse competencies. Data were collected using a structured data extraction form and analysed using thematic content analysis. Employing content analysis, we discerned essential domains: from grasping the health impacts of climate change to customizing care for the most susceptible populations and championing advocacy initiatives.<br><br>FINDINGS: Salient findings highlight nurses' profound understanding of both direct and secondary health implications of climate shifts. Additionally, the results emphasize the tailored interventions needed for vulnerable groups, capacity building and disaster readiness. Crucially, our findings spotlight the significance of weaving cultural, ethical and regional threads into nursing strategies. By painting a comprehensive picture, we showcase the delicate balance of environmental evolution, healthcare dynamics and the unique socio-cultural tapestry of Saudi Arabia.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results of our analysis revealed key competencies required for nurses, including the ability to address immediate health impacts, provide tailored care for vulnerable populations and engage in advocacy and policy formulation. In summation, nurses' multifaceted roles-from immediate medical care to research, advocacy and strategizing-underscore their invaluable contribution to confronting the health adversities sparked by climate change. Our review accentuates the essential contributions of nurses in tackling climate-related health hurdles and calls for more nuanced research, policy adjustments and proactive measures attuned to Saudi Arabia's distinct backdrop.}, }
@article {pmid39103743, year = {2024}, author = {Seritan, AL}, title = {Competency-Based Climate Change and Mental Health Education: An Emerging Paradigm.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39103743}, issn = {1545-7230}, }
@article {pmid39101830, year = {2024}, author = {Hoffman, LC and Schreuder, J and Cozzolino, D}, title = {Food authenticity and the interactions with human health and climate change.}, journal = {Critical reviews in food science and nutrition}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, doi = {10.1080/10408398.2024.2387329}, pmid = {39101830}, issn = {1549-7852}, abstract = {Food authenticity and fraud, as well as the interest in food traceability have become a topic of increasing interest not only for consumers but also for the research community and the food manufacturing industry. Food authenticity and fraud are becoming prevalent in both the food supply and value chains since ancient times where different issues (e.g., food spoilage during shipment and storage, mixing decay foods with fresh products) has resulted in foods that influence consumers health. The effect of climate change on the quality of food ingredients and products could also have the potential to influence food authenticity. However, this issue has not been considered. This article focused on the interactions between consumer health and the potential effects of climate change on food authenticity and fraud. The role of technology and development of risk management tools to mitigate these issues are also discussed. Where applicable papers that underline the links between the interactions of climate change, human health and food fraud were referenced.}, }
@article {pmid39101577, year = {2024}, author = {Gülırmak Güler, K and Albayrak Günday, E}, title = {Nature-friendly hands: The relationship between nursing students' climate change anxiety, intolerance of uncertainty, and anxiety about the future.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13388}, pmid = {39101577}, issn = {1525-1446}, abstract = {AIM/OBJECTIVE: This study examined the relationship between climate change anxiety, intolerance of uncertainty, and future anxiety levels of nursing students.<br><br>BACKGROUND: The effects of climate change, an important global problem, on people's emotional and intellectual states are becoming increasingly important. It is important to understand to what extent prospective health professionals, such as nursing students, are affected by such environmental concerns and the possible impact of this level on their professional behaviors to develop an environmentally focused approach to health services.<br><br>DESIGN: This study was conducted using a descriptive and correlational design.<br><br>METHODS: Students enrolled in the Nursing Undergraduate Program of a university in Turkey in the 2023-2024 academic year participated in the study. The participants were administered a personal information form, climate change anxiety scale, intolerance of uncertainty scale, and future anxiety scale in university students. The data were evaluated using advanced statistical analyses, and relationships were examined.<br><br>RESULTS: As a result of these analyses, it was determined that there was a significant relationship between future anxiety and climate change anxiety in university students (R&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.234, p&#xa0;=&#xa0;.000). In addition, there was a substantial relationship between climate change anxiety and intolerance of uncertainty (R&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.562, p&#xa0;=&#xa0;.000).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate significant and linear relationships between nursing students' emotional and cognitive states associated with environmental factors such as climate change, uncertainty, and future anxiety. Developing support and interventions in nursing education is crucial to help students cope with these issues and function more effectively in their future professional lives.}, }
@article {pmid39101348, year = {2024}, author = {Ostwald, MM and da Silva, CRB and Seltmann, KC}, title = {How does climate change impact social bees and bee sociality?.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.14160}, pmid = {39101348}, issn = {1365-2656}, support = {2102006//Division of Biological Infrastructure/ ; //Macquarie University/ ; }, abstract = {Climatic factors are known to shape the expression of social behaviours. Likewise, variation in social behaviour can dictate climate responses. Understanding interactions between climate and sociality is crucial for forecasting vulnerability and resilience to climate change across animal taxa. These interactions are particularly relevant for taxa like bees that exhibit a broad diversity of social states. An emerging body of literature aims to quantify bee responses to environmental change with respect to variation in key functional traits, including sociality. Additionally, decades of research on environmental drivers of social evolution may prove fruitful for predicting shifts in the costs and benefits of social strategies under climate change. In this review, we explore these findings to ask two interconnected questions: (a) how does sociality mediate vulnerability to climate change, and (b) how might climate change impact social organisation in bees? We highlight traits that intersect with bee sociality that may confer resilience to climate change (e.g. extended activity periods, diet breadth, behavioural thermoregulation) and we generate predictions about the impacts of climate change on the expression and distribution of social phenotypes in bees. The social evolutionary consequences of climate change will be complex and heterogeneous, depending on such factors as local climate and plasticity of social traits. Many contexts will see an increase in the frequency of eusocial nesting as warming temperatures accelerate development and expand the temporal window for rearing a worker brood. More broadly, climate-mediated shifts in the abiotic and biotic selective environments will alter the costs and benefits of social living in different contexts, with cascading impacts at the population, community and ecosystem levels.}, }
@article {pmid39100739, year = {2024}, author = {Kumar, P and Kaur, Y and Apostolopoulos, V and Pant, M and Gaidhane, AM and Zahiruddin, QS and Singh, MP and Sah, S}, title = {The rising threat of Ross River virus: Climate change and its implications on public health in Australia.}, journal = {New microbes and new infections}, volume = {60-61}, number = {}, pages = {101451}, pmid = {39100739}, issn = {2052-2975}, }
@article {pmid39100710, year = {2024}, author = {Steel, D and Mintz-Woo, K and DesRoches, CT}, title = {Collapse, social tipping dynamics, and framing climate change.}, journal = {Politics philosophy &amp; economics}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {230-251}, pmid = {39100710}, issn = {1741-3060}, abstract = {In this article, we claim that recent developments in climate science and renewable energy should prompt a reframing of debates surrounding climate change mitigation. Taken together, we argue that these developments suggest (1) global climate collapse in this century is a non-negligible risk, (2) mitigation offers substantial benefits to current generations, and (3) mitigation by some can generate social tipping dynamics that could ultimately make renewables cheaper than fossil fuels. We explain how these claims undermine familiar framings of climate change, wherein mitigation is understood as self-sacrifice that individuals and governments must be morally persuaded or incentivized to undertake.}, }
@article {pmid39100553, year = {2024}, author = {Steentjes, K and Roberts, E}, title = {Raising alarm bells for a struggling sector: taking a new approach to improve the wellbeing of climate change professionals.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1404252}, pmid = {39100553}, issn = {1664-1078}, }
@article {pmid39100207, year = {2024}, author = {Anderson, RC and Martyn, TE and Renne, RR and Burke, IC and Lauenroth, WK}, title = {Climate change and C4 and C3 grasses in a midlatitude dryland steppe.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {e70103}, pmid = {39100207}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change is projected to alter the structure of plant communities due to increasing temperatures and changes to precipitation patterns, particularly in midlatitude dryland ecosystems. Modifications to climatic suitability may lead to major community changes such as altered dominant plant functional types. Previous studies have indicated that climatic suitability is likely to increase for C4 grasses and decrease for C3 grasses in the Western United States. However, if no C4 grass species currently exist to serve as a propagule source, expansion into areas of increased suitability will be limited. We conducted a field and modeling study in the Upper Green River Basin (UGRB) of Western Wyoming to determine if (1) C4 grasses are present to provide a propagule source and (2) C4 grasses are likely to increase in importance relative to C3 grasses due to climatic changes. We searched 44 sites for C4 grasses to establish presence, and modeled suitability at 35 sites using 17 Global Climate Models, two greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 4.5 and 8.5), and two time periods (mid- and late century; 2030-2060 and 2070-2099, respectively). We found C4 grasses at 10 of the 44 sites, indicating that there is a present propagule source. Our model projected increases in suitability for both C3 and C4 grasses across sites for all RCPs and time periods. In the mid-century RCP 4.5 scenario, the C3 functional type increased in projected biomass in 29 of 35 sites, and the C4 type increased in 31 sites. In this scenario, C3 grasses increased in projected biomass by a median 4 g m[-2] (5% change), and C4 grass biomass increased by a median 8 g m[-2] (21% change). Our study suggests that climate change will increase climatic suitability for grasses across the UGRB, and that all requirements are in place for C4 grasses to increase in abundance.}, }
@article {pmid39100040, year = {2024}, author = {Irfan, O and Dhillon, RA and Qamar, MA and Soomar, SM and Manzoor, K and Rizwan, W and Ali, HZ and Arshad, Z and Khan, JA}, title = {A Nationwide Survey Following the Devastating 2022 Floods in Pakistan: Current State of Knowledge, Attitude, and Perception Toward Climate Change and Its Health Consequences.}, journal = {Cureus}, volume = {16}, number = {7}, pages = {e63838}, pmid = {39100040}, issn = {2168-8184}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change (CC) persists as a critical public health concern, vividly demonstrated by Pakistan's severe unprecedented flooding from June to October 2022. The interplay between floods and CC highlights the urgent need to comprehend their complex dynamics. Given Pakistan's significant geographical vulnerability to CC events, assessing public awareness of CC becomes essential. This study aims to evaluate public knowledge, attitudes, and perception (KAP) regarding CC and its implications for overall health, reflecting onto governmental policies and community-based guidelines and enhancing preparedness for future natural calamities of similar magnitude.<br><br>METHODS: &#xa0;A nationwide cross-sectional survey of Pakistani adults covering all provinces of the country was conducted from January to March 2023 using a prevalidated questionnaire. A purposive sampling strategy was used to enroll participants in the study. Where appropriate, the chi-square test or Fisher's exact test was used to compare KAP among the sociodemographic groups. Multivariate analysis was used to explore predictors of knowledge. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were calculated considering a p value of &#x2264;0.05 as significant.<br><br>RESULTS: &#xa0;Among the 714 respondents, 265 (37.1%)&#xa0;of the respondents' residential areas were affected by the floods in Pakistan. A total of 663 (92.9%) of the participants had heard of CC, with 302 (42.3%) choosing "social media/WhatsApp" as their source of information. Increased flooding&#xa0;and changes in rainfall patterns&#xa0;were selected by 679 (95.1%) and 661 (92.6%) participants, respectively, as the most recognized CC. "Deforestation" was the most indicated reason for CC by 675 (94.5%) participants. Multivariate analysis revealed that females (OR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.16-2.00; p < 0.001), individuals who were affected by recent floods (OR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.05-3.34; p = 0.003), and individuals who were medical students/healthcare workers (OR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.24-2.48; p < 0.001) had greater knowledge of CC than their counterparts.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: &#xa0;The study reported an encouraging prevalence of knowledge of CC, positive attitudes, and practices toward&#xa0;CC, with an interest in learning and doing more to address the health effects of CC. With the ongoing global CC and a monsoon season forecast of similar intensity for the years to come in Pakistan, identifying groups with less knowledge of CC warrants a targeted education program to maximize awareness. Based on the study findings, social media platforms and interventions in educational institutes should be essential to mitigate the CC events in Pakistan and other vulnerable regions in the area.}, }
@article {pmid39098408, year = {2024}, author = {Martínez-Eixarch, M and Masqué, P and Lafratta, A and Lavery, P and Hilaire, S and Jornet, L and Thomas, C and Boisnard, A and Pérez-Méndez, N and Alcaraz, C and Martínez-Espinosa, C and Ibáñez, C and Grillas, P}, title = {Assessing methane emissions and soil carbon stocks in the Camargue coastal wetlands: Management implications for climate change regulation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175224}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175224}, pmid = {39098408}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Coastal wetlands are crucial in climate change regulation due to their capacity to act as either sinks or sources of carbon, resulting from the balance between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mainly methane (CH4), and soil carbon sequestration. Despite the paramount role of wetlands in climate regulation few studies investigate both aspects. The Camargue is one of the largest wetlands in Europe, yet the ways in which environmental and anthropic factors drive carbon dynamics remain poorly studied. We examined GHG emissions and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and accumulation rates in twelve representative wetlands, including two rice fields, to gain insights into the carbon dynamics and how it is influenced by hydrology and salinity. Mean CH4 rates ranged between - 87.0 and 131.0 mg m[-2] h[-1]and the main drivers were water conductivity and redox, water table depth and soil temperature. High emission rates were restricted to freshwater conditions during summer flooding periods whereas they were low in wetlands subjected to summer drought and water conductivity higher than 10 mS cm[-1]. Nitrous oxide emissions were low, ranging from - 0.5 to 0.9 mg N2O m[-2] h[-1]. The SOC stocks in the upper meter ranged from 17 to 90 Mg OC ha[-1]. Our research highlights the critical role of low-saline wetlands in carbon budgeting which potentially are large sources of CH4 but also contain the largest SOC stocks in the Camargue. Natural hydroperiods, involving summer drought, can maintain them as carbon sinks, but altered hydrology can transform them into sources. Artificial freshwater supply during summer leads to substantial CH4 emissions, offsetting their SOC accumulation rates. In conclusion, we advocate for readjusting the altered hydrology in marshes and for the search of management compromises to ensure the compatibility of economic and leisure activities with the preservation of the inherent climate-regulating capacity of coastal wetlands.}, }
@article {pmid39097014, year = {2024}, author = {Wild, R and Nagel, C and Geist, J}, title = {Multiple climate change stressors reduce the emergence success of gravel-spawning fish species and alter temporal emergence patterns.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175054}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175054}, pmid = {39097014}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change, with its profound effects on stream sediment, hydrological, and temperature dynamics, will exacerbate impacts on habitat conditions for many species, particularly those with vulnerable early life stages relying on the hyporheic zone, such as gravel-spawning fishes. Due to the complex and interactive nature of multiple stressor effects, we employed large-scale outdoor mesocosms to systemically test how the reproductive success of three gravel-spawning fish species brown trout (Salmo trutta), nase, (Chrondrostoma nasus) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho) was affected by individual and combined effects of warming (+3-4 °C), fine sediment (increase in <0.85 mm by 22 %) and low-flow (eightfold discharge-reduction). Fine sediment had the most detrimental effect on emergence rate and fry length in all three species, reducing the emergence rate to zero in brown trout, 9 % in nase, and 4 % in Danube salmon. The emergence mortality caused by fine sediment surpassed that of hatching distinctly, suggesting that negative effects due to hypoxia were considerably exacerbated by entombment. Warming had only minor effects as a single stressor, but low flow reduced emergence rates of the spring spawning species nase and Danube salmon by 8 and 50 %, respectively. In combined treatments including fine sediment, however, the emergence success of all three species responded strongly negatively, even in the cyprinid species nase, which showed little interactive effects between stressors regarding hatching success. Warming and fine sediment also led to the earlier emergence of fry, implying a risk of asynchrony with available food resources. This study dramatically shows that climate change can have deleterious impacts on the reproductive success of gravel-spawning fish species, irrespective of taxonomic or ecological traits.}, }
@article {pmid39096729, year = {2024}, author = {Chai, C and Wang, L and Chen, D and Zhou, J and Li, N and Liu, H}, title = {Quantifying future water resource vulnerability in a high-mountain third pole river basin under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {367}, number = {}, pages = {121954}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121954}, pmid = {39096729}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Understanding the water resource vulnerability (WRV) in global mountain regions under climate change is crucial for water resources management and socio-economic development. However, the WRV in the high-mountain Third Pole region (with quite a few transboundary river basins) remains largely unclear. Here, we have applied a comprehensive assessment framework of WRV to a Third Pole high-mountain river basin (Nujiang-Salween River, NSR) and its dependent downstream. The framework consisted of sensitivity, exposure, adaptability, hazard, and water stress indices, considering climate change, socio-economics, government effectiveness, natural disasters, and water supply capacity of the target river basin. Our results indicate that the downstream area (with intensive human activities) often exhibited significantly higher WRV than the mountain region; while the WRV shows an M-shaped change with increasing elevation, with the highest vulnerability occurring in a relatively low elevation range (e.g., 500-1500 m for the NSR basin). In the near future, we find that the spatial pattern of WRV in the basin is alternately influenced by adaptation, water scarcity, and exposure; whereas climate change serves as the main driver affecting the WRV in the far future. These findings enhance our understanding of the WRV in high-mountain transboundary basins of the Third Pole under global change.}, }
@article {pmid39096580, year = {2024}, author = {Ma, M and Kouis, P and Rudke, AP and Athanasiadou, M and Scoutellas, V and Tymvios, F and Nikolaidis, K and Koutrakis, P and Yiallouros, PK and Alahmad, B}, title = {Projections of mortality attributable to hot ambient temperatures in Cyprus under moderate and extreme climate change scenarios.}, journal = {International journal of hygiene and environmental health}, volume = {262}, number = {}, pages = {114439}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijheh.2024.114439}, pmid = {39096580}, issn = {1618-131X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Heat-related mortality has become a growing public health concern in light of climate change. However, few studies have quantified the climate-attributable health burden in Cyprus, a recognized climate change hotspot. This study aims to estimate the heat-related mortality in Cyprus for all future decades in the 21st century under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme (SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: We applied distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the baseline associations between temperature and mortality from 2004 to 2019 (data obtained from Department of Meteorology of the Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment and the Health Monitoring Unit of the Cyprus Ministry of Health). The relationships were then extrapolated to future daily mean temperatures derived from downscaled global climate projections from General Circulation Models. Attributable number of deaths were calculated to determine the excess heat-related health burden compared to the baseline decade of 2000-2009 in the additive scale. The analysis process was repeated for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and mortality among males, females, and adults younger or older than 65. We assumed a static population and demographic structure, no adaptation to hot temperatures over time, and did not evaluate potential interaction between temperature and humidity.<br><br>RESULTS: Compared to 2000-2009, heat-related total mortality is projected to increase by 2.7% (95% empirical confidence interval: 0.6, 4.0) and 4.75% (2.2, 7.1) by the end of the century in the moderate and extreme climate scenarios, respectively. Cardiovascular disease is expected to be an important cause of heat-related death with projected increases of 3.4% (0.7, 5.1) and 6% (2.6, 9.0) by the end of the century. Reducing carbon emission to the moderate scenario can help avoid 75% of the predicted increase in all-cause heat-related mortality by the end of the century relative to the extreme scenario.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that climate change mitigation and sustainable adaptation strategies are crucial to reduce the anticipated heat-attributable health burden, particularly in Cyprus, where adaptation strategies such as air conditioning is nearing capacity.}, }
@article {pmid39095989, year = {2024}, author = {Feng, J and Dan, X and Cui, Y and Gong, Y and Peng, M and Sang, Y and Ingvarsson, PK and Wang, J}, title = {Integrating evolutionary genomics of forest trees to inform future tree breeding amidst rapid climate change.}, journal = {Plant communications}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {101044}, doi = {10.1016/j.xplc.2024.101044}, pmid = {39095989}, issn = {2590-3462}, abstract = {Global climate change is leading to rapid and drastic shifts in environmental conditions, posing threats to biodiversity and nearly all life forms worldwide. Forest trees serve as foundational components of terrestrial ecosystems and play a crucial and leading role in combating and mitigating the adverse effects of extreme climate events, despite their own vulnerability to these threats. Therefore, understanding and monitoring how natural forests respond to rapid climate change is a key priority for biodiversity conservation. The recent progress of evolutionary genomics, primarily driven by cutting-edge multi-omics technologies, offer powerful new tools to address several key issues. These include the precise delineation of species and evolutionary units, inference of past evolutionary histories and demographic fluctuations, identification of environmental adaptive variants, and measurement of genetic load levels. As the urgency to deal with more extreme environmental stresses grows, understanding the genomics of evolutionary history, local adaptation, future responses to climate change, and the conservation and restoration of natural forest trees will be critical for research at the nexus of global change, population genomics and conservation biology. In this review, we explore the application of evolutionary genomics to assess the effects of global climate change using multi-omics approaches and discuss the outlook for breeding climate-adapted trees.}, }
@article {pmid39095632, year = {2024}, author = {Espinosa, S and Asensio, M and Antiñolo, M and Albaladejo, J and Jiménez, E}, title = {Atmospheric chemistry of CF3CHFCF2OCH3 (HFE-356mec3) and CHF2CHFOCF3 (HFE-236ea1) initiated by OH and Cl and their contribution to global warming.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39095632}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {SBPLY/19/180501/000052//Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha/ ; SBPLY/23/180225/000054//Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha/ ; 2022-GRIN-34143//Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha/ ; }, abstract = {The kinetic study of the gas-phase reactions of hydroxyl (OH) radicals and chlorine (Cl) atoms with CF3CHFCF2OCH3 (HFE-356mec3) and CHF2CHFOCF3 (HFE-236ea1) was performed by the pulsed laser photolysis/laser-induced fluorescence technique and a relative method by using Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy as detection technique. The temperature dependences of the OH-rate coefficients (kOH(T) in cm[3]s[-1]) between 263 and 353 K are well described by the following expressions: 9.93 × 10[-13]exp{-(988 ± 35)/T}for HFE-356mec3 and 4.75 × 10[-13]exp{-(1285 ± 22)/T} for HFE-236ea1. Under NOx-free conditions, the rate coefficients kCl at 298 K and 1013 mbar (760 Torr) of air were determined to be (2.30 ± 1.08) × 10[-13] cm[3]s[-1]and (1.19 ± 0.10) × 10[-15] cm[3]s[-1], for HFE-356mec3 and HFE-236ea1, respectively. Additionally, the relative kinetic study of the Cl + CH2ClCHCl2 reaction was investigated at 298 K, as it was used as a reference reaction in the kinetic study of the Cl-reaction with HFE-356mec3 and discrepant rate coefficients were found in the literature. The global atmospheric lifetimes were estimated relative to CH3CCl3 at the tropospheric mean temperature (272 K) as 1.4 and 8.6 years for HFE-356mec3 and HFE-236ea1, respectively. These values combined with the radiative efficiencies for HFE-356mec3 and HFE-236ea1 derived from the measured IR absorption cross sections (0.27 and 0.41 W m[-2] ppv[-1]) yield global warming potentials at a 100-yrs time horizon of 143 and 1473, respectively. The contribution of HFE-356mec3 and HFE-236ea1 to global warming of the atmosphere would be large if they become widespread increasing their atmospheric concentration.}, }
@article {pmid39095546, year = {2024}, author = {Bizama, G and Jan, A and Olivos, JA and Fuentes-Jaque, G and Valdovinos, C and Urrutia, R and Arismendi, I}, title = {Author Correction: Climate change can disproportionately reduce habitats of stream fishes with restricted ranges in southern South America.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {17895}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-024-68912-8}, pmid = {39095546}, issn = {2045-2322}, }
@article {pmid39095339, year = {2024}, author = {Ferreira, A and Mendes, CRB and Costa, RR and Brotas, V and Tavano, VM and Guerreiro, CV and Secchi, ER and Brito, AC}, title = {Climate change is associated with higher phytoplankton biomass and longer blooms in the West Antarctic Peninsula.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {6536}, pmid = {39095339}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {PQ 312569/2021-1//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; PQ 310597/2018-8//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; PQ 312569/2021-1//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; 442628/2018-8//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; 442637/2018-7//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; 442628/2018-8//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; 442637/2018-7//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; PQ 312569/2021-1//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; PQ 310597/2018-8//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; 442637/2018-7//Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)/ ; N 810139//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; N 810139//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; }, mesh = {*Phytoplankton/growth &amp; development ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Biomass ; *Seasons ; Ice Cover ; Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; Temperature ; Eutrophication ; }, abstract = {The Antarctic Peninsula (West Antarctica) marine ecosystem has undergone substantial changes due to climate-induced shifts in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures since the 1950s. Using 25 years of satellite data (1998-2022), this study presents evidence that phytoplankton biomass and bloom phenology in the West Antarctic Peninsula are significantly changing as a response to anthropogenic climate change. Enhanced phytoplankton biomass was observed along the West Antarctic Peninsula, particularly in the early austral autumn, resulting in longer blooms. Long-term sea ice decline was identified as the main driver enabling phytoplankton growth in early spring and autumn, in parallel with a recent intensification of the Southern Annular Mode (2010-ongoing), which was observed to influence regional variability. Our findings contribute to the understanding of the complex interplay between environmental changes and phytoplankton responses in this climatically key region of the Southern Ocean and raise important questions regarding the far-reaching consequences that these ecological changes may have on global carbon sequestration and Antarctic food webs in the future.}, }
@article {pmid39094135, year = {2024}, author = {Gou, R and Lohmann, G and Wu, L}, title = {Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline: Tipping Small Scales under Global Warming.}, journal = {Physical review letters}, volume = {133}, number = {3}, pages = {034201}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevLett.133.034201}, pmid = {39094135}, issn = {1079-7114}, abstract = {The Atlantic circulation is a key component of the global ocean conveyor that transports heat and nutrients worldwide. Its likely weakening due to global warming has implications for climate and ecology. However, the expected changes remain largely uncertain as low-resolution climate models currently in use do not resolve small scales. Although the large-scale circulation tends to weaken uniformly in both the low-resolution and our high-resolution climate model version, we find that the small-scale circulation in the North Atlantic changes abruptly under global warming and exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Furthermore, the future Atlantic Ocean circulation in the high-resolution model version expands in conjunction with a sea ice retreat and strengthening toward the Arctic. Finally, the cutting-edge climate model indicates sensitive shifts in the eddies and circulation on regional scales for future warming and thus provides a benchmark for next-generation climate models that can get rid of parametrizations of unresolved scales.}, }
@article {pmid39093980, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Erratum for the Research Article: "Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use" by Millard et al.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {10}, number = {31}, pages = {eadr6694}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.adr6694}, pmid = {39093980}, issn = {2375-2548}, }
@article {pmid39093508, year = {2024}, author = {Bade, KJ and Mueller, KT and Sparks, JA}, title = {Air Pollution and Rheumatoid Arthritis Risk and Progression: Implications for the Mucosal Origins Hypothesis and Climate Change for RA Pathogenesis.}, journal = {Current rheumatology reports}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39093508}, issn = {1534-6307}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The goal of this review paper is to summarize the main research and findings regarding air pollution and its association with the risk and progression of rheumatoid arthritis (RA).<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: The most studied components of air pollution included particulate matter of&#x2009;&#x2264;&#x2009;2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5), PM10, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitric oxide (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3). In addition, specific occupations and occupational inhalants have been investigated for RA risk. Several studies showed that increased exposure to air pollutants increased the risk of developing RA, particularly seropositive RA. There was evidence of gene-inhalant interactions for seropositive RA risk. Fewer studies have been conducted on RA disease activity and bone erosions. Some studies suggest that patients with RA-associated interstitial lung disease may have worse outcomes if exposed to air pollution. We summarized associations between air pollution and increased RA risk, including RA-associated interstitial lung disease. Relatively few studies investigated air pollution and RA disease activity or other outcomes. These results suggest an important role of air pollution for seropositive RA development and suggest that climate change could be a driver in increasing RA incidence as air pollution increases.}, }
@article {pmid39093009, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, F and Deroy, C and Herr, AE}, title = {Microfluidics for macrofluidics: addressing marine-ecosystem challenges in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Lab on a chip}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1039/d4lc00468j}, pmid = {39093009}, issn = {1473-0189}, abstract = {Climate change presents a mounting challenge with profound impacts on ocean and marine ecosystems, leading to significant environmental, health, and economic consequences. Microfluidic technologies, with their unique capabilities, play a crucial role in understanding and addressing the marine aspects of the climate crisis. These technologies leverage quantitative, precise, and miniaturized formats that enhance the capabilities of sensing, imaging, and molecular tools. Such advancements are critical for monitoring marine systems under the stress of climate change and elucidating their response mechanisms. This review explores microfluidic technologies employed both in laboratory settings for testing and in the field for monitoring purposes. We delve into the application of miniaturized tools in evaluating ocean-based solutions to climate change, thus offering fresh perspectives from the solution-oriented end of the spectrum. We further aim to synthesize recent developments in technology around critical questions concerning the ocean environment and marine ecosystems, while discussing the potential for future innovations in microfluidic technology. The purpose of this review is to enhance understanding of current capabilities and assist researchers interested in mitigating the effects of climate change to identify new avenues for tackling the pressing issues posed by climate change in marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid39092581, year = {2024}, author = {Yoder, JB and Andrade, AK and DeFalco, LA and Esque, TC and Carlson, CJ and Shryock, DF and Yeager, R and Smith, CI}, title = {Reconstructing 120 years of climate change impacts on Joshua tree flowering.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {e14478}, doi = {10.1111/ele.14478}, pmid = {39092581}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {2001180//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; 2001190//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Flowers/growth &amp; development ; Trees ; Machine Learning ; Droughts ; }, abstract = {Quantifying how global change impacts wild populations remains challenging, especially for species poorly represented by systematic datasets. Here, we infer climate change effects on masting by Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana), keystone perennials of the Mojave Desert, from 15 years of crowdsourced observations. We annotated phenophase in 10,212 geo-referenced images of Joshua trees on the iNaturalist crowdsourcing platform, and used them to train machine learning models predicting flowering from annual weather records. Hindcasting to 1900 with a trained model successfully recovers flowering events in independent historical records and reveals a slightly rising frequency of conditions supporting flowering since the early 20th Century. This reflects increased variation in annual precipitation, which drives masting events in wet years-but also increasing temperatures and drought stress, which may have net negative impacts on recruitment. Our findings reaffirm the value of crowdsourcing for understanding climate change impacts on biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid39092475, year = {2024}, author = {Ramirez-Duarte, WF and Moran, BM and Powell, DL and Bank, C and Sousa, VC and Rosenthal, GG and Schumer, M and Rochman, CM}, title = {Hybridization in the Anthropocene - how pollution and climate change disrupt mate selection in freshwater fish.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/brv.13126}, pmid = {39092475}, issn = {1469-185X}, support = {RGY0081/2020//Human Frontier Science Program/ ; }, abstract = {Chemical pollutants and/or climate change have the potential to break down reproductive barriers between species and facilitate hybridization. Hybrid zones may arise in response to environmental gradients and secondary contact between formerly allopatric populations, or due to the introduction of non-native species. In freshwater ecosystems, field observations indicate that changes in water quality and chemistry, due to pollution and climate change, are correlated with an increased frequency of hybridization. Physical and chemical disturbances of water quality can alter the sensory environment, thereby affecting chemical and visual communication among fish. Moreover, multiple chemical compounds (e.g. pharmaceuticals, metals, pesticides, and industrial contaminants) may impair fish physiology, potentially affecting phenotypic traits relevant for mate selection (e.g. pheromone production, courtship, and coloration). Although warming waters have led to documented range shifts, and chemical pollution is ubiquitous in freshwater ecosystems, few studies have tested hypotheses about how these stressors may facilitate hybridization and what this means for biodiversity and species conservation. Through a systematic literature review across disciplines (i.e. ecotoxicology and evolutionary biology), we evaluate the biological interactions, toxic mechanisms, and roles of physical and chemical environmental stressors (i.e. chemical pollution and climate change) in disrupting mate preferences and inducing interspecific hybridization in freshwater fish. Our study indicates that climate change-driven changes in water quality and chemical pollution may impact visual and chemical communication crucial for mate choice and thus could facilitate hybridization among fishes in freshwater ecosystems. To inform future studies and conservation management, we emphasize the importance of further research to identify the chemical and physical stressors affecting mate choice, understand the mechanisms behind these interactions, determine the concentrations at which they occur, and assess their impact on individuals, populations, species, and biological diversity in the Anthropocene.}, }
@article {pmid39092181, year = {2024}, author = {Tye, MR and Wilhelmi, O and Boehnert, J and Faye, E and Milestad, R and Pierce, AL and Laborgne, P}, title = {Examining urban resilience through a food-water-energy nexus lens to understand the effects of climate change.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {7}, pages = {110311}, pmid = {39092181}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Urban centers located on the coast expose some of the most vulnerable populations to the effects of climate change. In addition to the challenges faced by high population densities and interdependent social-ecological systems, there is an increasing demand for resources. Exposing the pinch points that are already sensitive to extreme weather, highlights the urban systems that will be least resilient in the face of climate change. We map the projected changes in water availability onto the components of the food-water-energy Nexus at several spatial scales. Resilience thinking acknowledges the different spatial scales at which governance operates, resilience occurs, and Nexus systems function. We use a case study to illustrate how the effects of climate change at locations remote from the city could impact resilience of urban communities in multiple ways through cascading effects from the Nexus. This article underscores the need to examine resilience from multiple spatial and governance angles.}, }
@article {pmid39091448, year = {2024}, author = {Pucu, E}, title = {Stella Hartinger: exploring the intersection of climate change and human health.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {100838}, doi = {10.1016/j.lana.2024.100838}, pmid = {39091448}, issn = {2667-193X}, }
@article {pmid39090385, year = {2024}, author = {Li, M and Zhang, J and Tan, C and Liu, H and He, Q}, title = {Predicting the impact of climate change on crop water footprint using CMIP6 in the Shule River Basin, China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {17843}, pmid = {39090385}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {41701062//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2019M663923XB//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Quantitatively predicting the impacts of climate change on water demands of various crops is essential for developing measures to ensure food security, sustainable agriculture, and water resources management, especially in arid regions. This study explored the water footprints (WFs) of nine major crops in the middle and downstream areas of Shule River Basin, Northwest China, from 1989 to 2020 using the WF theory and CROPWAT model and predicted the future WFs of these crops under four emission and socio-economic pathway (SSPs-RCPs) scenarios, which provides scientific support for actively responding to the negative impacts of climate change in arid regions. Results indicated: (1) an increasing trend of the overall crop WF, with blue WF accounting for 80.31-99.33% of the total WF in the last 30 years. Owing to differences of planting structure, water-conservation technologies, and other factors, the multi-year average WF per unit area of crops was 0.75 × 10[4] m[3] hm[-2] in downstream area, which was higher than that in midstream area (0.57 × 10[4] m[3] hm[-2]) in the last 30 years; therefore agricultural water use efficiency in the downstream area was lower than that in the midstream area, implying that the midstream area has more efficient agricultural water utilization. (2) an initial increase and then decrease of crop WFs in the study area under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios by the end of the century, reaching their peak in 2030s which was higher than that from 1989 to 2020; with the maximum growth rates in the midstream area ranging from -0.85% in SSP5-8.5 to 5.33% in SSP2-4.5 and 29.74% in SSP5-8.5 to 34.71% in SSP2-4.5 in the downstream area. The local agricultural water demand would continue to increase and water scarcity issues would be more severe in the next 10-20 years, affecting downstream areas more. Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, crop WF values of the midstream and downstream regions will be 2.63 × 10[8] m[3] and 4.22 × 10[8] m[3] in 2030, respectively, which is significantly higher than those of other scenarios and show a long-term growth trend. The growth rate of the midstream and downstream regions will reach 44.71% and 81.12%, respectively, by the end of this century, so the local agricultural water use would be facing more strain if this scenario materializes in the future. Therefore, the Shule River Basin should encourage development of water-saving irrigation technologies, adjust the planting ratio of high water consuming crops, and identify other measures to improve water resource utilization efficiency to cope with future water resource pressures.}, }
@article {pmid39090158, year = {2024}, author = {Stollberg, J and Bogdan, D and Jonas, E}, title = {Empowering the younger generation increases their willingness for intergenerational reconciliation in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {17825}, pmid = {39090158}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; *Intergenerational Relations ; Young Adult ; Empowerment ; Power, Psychological ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; }, abstract = {Climate change can evoke intergenerational conflict. Structural inequalities and their unequal impact on generations can increase perceptions of collective victimhood among the younger generation (< 30 years) and bear the risk of social tensions between the young and the elderly. An experimental study (N = 434) showed that younger people perceived an increased risk of future victimhood. In line with a needs-based approach, the young reported an increased desire to pursue agentic intergroup goals, indicating a heightened need for agency. However, when the young received empowering messages that affirmed their ingroup agency, their willingness to reconcile with the old generation increased, whereas informing them about non-agentic ingroup behavior did not affect reconciliation (between-subjects manipulation). While empowering messages from the outgroup ("Grannies for Future") that directly affirmed the young generations' agency for climate change mitigation as well as empowering messages from the ingroup that indirectly affirmed ingroup agency in domains unrelated to climate change both addressed the need for agency, only outgroup empowerment promoted intergenerational reconciliation. However, empowerment did not affect support for collective climate action. We discuss empowerment as an avenue for resolving intergroup conflict in the context of climate change and possible consequences for climate action and social change.}, }
@article {pmid39087738, year = {2024}, author = {Gao, R and Liu, L and Fan, S and Zheng, W and Liu, R and Zhang, Z and Huang, R and Zhao, L and Shi, J}, title = {Occurrence and potential diffusion of pine wilt disease mediated by insect vectors in China under climate change.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.8335}, pmid = {39087738}, issn = {1526-4998}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Pine wilt disease (PWD), a major international quarantined forest pest, causes serious ecological and economic damage to Pinus species in Asia and Europe. In China, PWD has spread northeasterly and northwesterly beyond its original northern limits. Consequently, an evaluation of the insect vector-mediated occurrence and potential diffusion of PWD is needed to identify important transmission routes and control the spread of disease.<br><br>RESULTS: An optimized MaxEnt model was used to assess the current and future geographical distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and its insect vectors in China. The predicted suitable area for B.&#x2009;xylophilus colonization is currently 212.32&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[4]&#x2009;km[2] and mainly concentrated in Central, East, Southwest and South China, although is anticipated to include the northwestern regions of China in the future. As for the insect vectors, Monochamus alternatus and M.&#x2009;saltuarius are expected to spread toward the northwest and southwest, respectively. The maximum predicted dispersion area of PWD mediated by M.&#x2009;alternatus, M.&#x2009;saltuarius and both species was 91.85&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[4], 218.76&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[4] and 29.99&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[4]&#x2009;km[2], respectively, with potential diffusion areas being anticipated to increase in the future. Both the suitable probabilities and areas of B.&#x2009;xylophilus and its insect vectors were found to vary substantially along the latitudinal gradient, with the latitudinal range of these species being predicted to expand in the future.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This is the first study to investigate the potential diffusion areas of PWD mediated by insect vectors in China, and our finding will provide a vital theoretical reference and empirical basis for developing more effective management strategies for the control of PWD in China. &#xa9; 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid39086915, year = {2024}, author = {Sell, M and Rohula-Okunev, G and Kupper, P and Ostonen, I}, title = {Adapting to climate change: responses of fine root traits and C exudation in five tree species with different light-use strategy.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1389569}, pmid = {39086915}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Trees that are categorised by their light requirements have similarities in their growth strategies and adaptation mechanisms. We aimed to understand the complex responses of elevated air humidity on whole tree fine root carbon (C) exudation (ExC) and respiration rate, morphology, and functional distribution in species with different light requirements. Three light-demanding (LD) species, Populus × wettsteinii, Betula pendula, and Pinus sylvestris, and two shade-tolerant species, Picea abies and Tilia cordata saplings were grown in growth chambers under moderate and elevated air relative humidity (eRH) at two different inorganic nitrogen sources with constant air temperature and light availability. The proportion of assimilated carbon released by ExC, and respiration decreased at eRH; up to about 3 and 27%, respectively. There was an indication of a trade-off between fine root released C and biomass allocation. The elevated air humidity changed the tree biomass allocation and fine root morphology, and the responses were species-specific. The specific fine root area and absorptive root proportion were positively related to canopy net photosynthesis and leaf nitrogen concentration across tree species. The variation in ExC was explained by the trees' light-use strategy (p < 0.05), showing higher exudation rates in LD species. The LD species had a higher proportion of pioneer root tips, which related to the enhanced ExC. Our findings highlight the significant role of fine root functional distribution and morphological adaptation in determining rhizosphere C fluxes in changing environmental conditions such as the predicted increase of air humidity in higher latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid39086336, year = {2024}, author = {Kwa, YC and Suboh, N and Kay, DSW and Lee, CIS and Walsh, CL and Goodson, ML}, title = {Perceptions of climate change and associated health impacts among communities in Johor River Basin, Malaysia.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Malaysia}, volume = {79}, number = {4}, pages = {397-407}, pmid = {39086336}, issn = {0300-5283}, mesh = {Malaysia ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Middle Aged ; Perception ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: As climate change is threatening every region of the world, extreme weather events resultant of global warming is occurring at increasing rate and scale in Malaysia. Weather-related disasters such as flood and haze pose critical challenges to the infrastructure and raise public health concerns in the country, especially when main economic sectors rely heavily on climate variability. Public perception on environmental issues is crucial for development of pro-environmental policies. Among studies conducted to understand public awareness regarding global warming, reports of perception on the health impacts were very limited. Taking this limitation into account, this study was designed to examine the perception on the health impacts of climate change among the diverse communities living in the Johor River Basin.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: The cross-sectional study was conducted through cloud-data-based digital questionnaires completed by randomly selected residents in the Johor River Basin (n=647). Data was analysed with descriptive statistics using SPSS 27 (IBM&#xae;) Software. Comparisons between indigenous and non-indigenous communities were performed using Chi square analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Respondents in this study consisted of indigenous people (n=79) and non-indigenous people (n=568). Indigenous respondents generally perceived more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events in the next 20 years, even for the phenomena unfamiliar in Malaysian settings. All respondents showed similar concerns for health impacts of global warming, although the non-indigenous respondents perceived the risk further into the future (25 years) compared to the indigenous respondents who perceived current or imminent (<10 years) risks. Intense concerns for self, children, family members and community were shown by nearly all indigenous respondents (97-99%), while the non-indigenous people in this study expressed stronger concerns at country level and for future generations. During the last haze episode, most indigenous respondents (85%) did not notice any change in air quality nor discomfort among family members, in contrast 70% of the nonindigenous respondents claimed to have suffered from breathing problems themselves as well as others in the family. All respondents were concerned about air quality in their surroundings, indigenous people were concerned for the near future (<10 years), and non-indigenous people were concerned for the next 25 years.<br><br>CONCLUSION: In this study, respondents were generally concerned about the health impacts of unimpeded global warming. There was significant difference in perceptions between indigenous and non-indigenous respondents. The findings were useful, complemented with further studies, to improve understanding of public awareness and to help develop relevant education programmes accessible for wider audience.}, }
@article {pmid39086254, year = {2024}, author = {Vicente-Serrano, SM and Juez, C and Potopová, V and Boincean, B and Murphy, C and Domínguez-Castro, F and Eklundh, L and Peña-Angulo, D and Noguera, I and Jin, H and Conradt, T and Garcia-Herrera, R and Garrido-Perez, JM and Barriopedro, D and Gutiérrez, JM and Iturbide, M and Lorenzo-Lacruz, J and Kenawy, AE}, title = {Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.15201}, pmid = {39086254}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {TED2021-129152B-C41//Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities/ ; PID2022-137244OB-I00//Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities/ ; //European Commission, AXIS (Assessment of Cross(X)-sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation)/ ; //JPI-Climate co-funded call: CROSSDRO/ ; CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797//CzechGlobe: SustES - Adaptationstrategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverseenvironmental conditions/ ; //CSIC: Interdisciplinary Thematic Platform (PTI) clima y servicios clim&#xe1;ticos (PTI-CSC)/ ; }, abstract = {This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950-2020 and 1850-2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950-2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970-2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid39085256, year = {2024}, author = {Baker, RE and Yang, W and Vecchi, GA and Takahashi, S}, title = {Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {6466}, pmid = {39085256}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Outbreaks ; China/epidemiology ; *Seasons ; *Enterovirus Infections/epidemiology/virology ; *Enterovirus/isolation &amp; purification ; *Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology/virology ; Japan/epidemiology ; Temperature ; Poliomyelitis/epidemiology/transmission/virology/prevention &amp; control ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Pathogens of the enterovirus genus, including poliovirus and coxsackieviruses, typically circulate in the summer months suggesting a possible positive association between warmer weather and transmission. Here we evaluate the environmental and demographic drivers of enterovirus transmission, as well as the implications of climate change for future enterovirus circulation. We leverage pre-vaccination era data on polio in the US as well as data on two enterovirus A serotypes in China and Japan that are known to cause hand, foot, and mouth disease. Using mechanistic modeling and statistical approaches, we find that enterovirus transmission appears positively correlated with temperature although demographic factors, particularly the timing of school semesters, remain important. We use temperature projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate future outbreaks under late 21st-century climate change for Chinese provinces. We find that outbreak size increases with climate change on average, though results differ across climate models depending on the degree of wintertime warming. In the worst-case scenario, we project peak outbreaks in some locations could increase by up to 40%.}, }
@article {pmid39084384, year = {2024}, author = {Zhao, J and Yang, J and Huang, R and Xie, H and Qin, X and Hu, Y}, title = {Estimating evapotranspiration and drought dynamics of winter wheat under climate change: A case study in Huang-Huai-Hai region, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175114}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175114}, pmid = {39084384}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Drought is one of the vital meteorological disasters that influence crop growth. Timely and accurately estimating the drought dynamics of crops is valuable for decision-maker to formulate scientific management measures of agricultural drought risk. In this study, the evapotranspiration and drought dynamics of winter wheat from 1981 to 2020 in the Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH) region of China were evaluated based on long-term multi-source observation data. Four key developmental stages of winter wheat were given attentions: growth before winter stage, overwintering stage, stage of greening-heading, and stage of filling-maturity. The crop water deficit index (CWDI) on a daily scale was established for quantitatively appraising the impacts of drought on winter wheat. Our results indicated that interannual variation in reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) during the growth season of winter wheat from 1981 to 2020 in the HHH region showed a slight increase trend, with an average of 602.4 mm and obvious spatial differences of decreasing from the Northeast to the Southwest. Over the past forty years, the winter wheat in the HHH region was most severely affected by severe drought, followed by moderate drought, and finally mild drought. In addition, the impacts of drought on winter wheat at different critical growth stages varied greatly. For the growth before winter stage, the winter wheat was mainly threatened by mild, moderate, and severe droughts. For the overwintering stage, the winter wheat was mainly threatened by moderate, severe, and extreme droughts. For the greening-heading stage, the winter wheat was mainly threatened by mild, moderate, severe, and extreme droughts. For the filling-maturity stage, the winter wheat was mainly threatened by mild and moderate droughts. Finally, the impacts of drought on winter wheat during 1981-2020 in the HHH region were revealed to differ extraordinarily in space. In particular, the areas of winter wheat affected by severe drought significantly decreased. However, the areas of winter wheat affected by moderate drought clearly expanded. Our findings provide new insights for further improving climate change impact studies and agricultural drought defense capabilities adapting to continuous environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid39084182, year = {2024}, author = {Boekhorst, F and Savona-Ventura, C and Mahmood, T and Mukhopadhyay, S}, title = {The effects of climate change and environmental pollution on human reproduction: A scientific review commissioned by the European Board and College of Obstetrics and Gynaecology (EBCOG).}, journal = {European journal of obstetrics, gynecology, and reproductive biology}, volume = {301}, number = {}, pages = {19-23}, doi = {10.1016/j.ejogrb.2024.07.030}, pmid = {39084182}, issn = {1872-7654}, abstract = {The European Board and College of Obstetrics and Gynaecology (EBCOG) and the European Network of Trainees in Obstetrics and Gynaecology (ENTOG) express their concerns on the effect of climate change and environmental pollution. This paper reviews the impact on reproductive health and the contribution to climate change by the field of obstetrics and gynaecology. It concludes that its contributors and the effects of climate change cause definite adverse consequences to fertility and adverse obstetric outcomes. Mankind, and obstetrics and gynaecology personnel as well, must be aware and responsible of its contribution to climate change and consider the impact of their actions and interventions.}, }
@article {pmid39083877, year = {2024}, author = {Li, JJ and Du, XK}, title = {Will climate change cause Sargassum beds in temperate waters to expand or contract? Evidence from the range shift pattern of Sargassum.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {200}, number = {}, pages = {106659}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106659}, pmid = {39083877}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Understanding the range shift patterns of foundation species (e.g., macroalgae) under future climatic conditions is critical for biodiversity conservation in coastal ecosystems. These predictions are typically made using species distribution models (SDMs), and severe habitat loss has been predicted for most brown algal forests. Nevertheless, some models showed that local adaptation within species can reduce range loss projections. In this study, we used the brown algae Sargassum fusiforme and Sargassum thunbergii, which are distributed in the Northwest Pacific, to determine whether climate change will cause the Sargassum beds in Northwest Pacific temperate waters to expand or contract. We divided S. fusiforme and S. thunbergii into northern and southern lineages, considering the temperature gradients and phylogeographic structures. We quantified the realized niches of the two lineages using an n-dimensional hypervolume. Significant niche differentiation was detected between lineages for both species, suggesting the existence of local adaptation. Based on these results, lineage-level SDMs were constructed for both species. The prediction results showed the different responses of different lineages to climate change. The suitable distribution area for both species was predicted to move northward, retaining part of the suitable habitat at low latitudes (along the East China Sea). Unfortunately, this expansion could not compensate for losing middle-low latitude areas. Our results have important implications for the future management and protection of macroalgae and emphasize the importance of incorporating intraspecific variation into species distribution predictions.}, }
@article {pmid39083192, year = {2024}, author = {Gini, G and Piggott-McKellar, A and Wiegel, H and Neu, FN and Link, AC and Fry, C and Tabe, T and Adegun, O and Wade, CT and Bower, ER and Koeltzow, S and Harrington-Abrams, R and Jacobs, C and van der Geest, K and Zivdar, N and Alaniz, R and Cherop, C and Durand-Delacre, D and Pill, M and Shekhar, H and Yates, O and Khan, MAA and Nansam-Aggrey, FK and Grant, L and Nizar, DA and Owusu-Daaku, KN and Preato, A and Stefancu, O and Yee, M}, title = {Correction to: Navigating tensions in climate change-related planned relocation.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-024-02059-8}, pmid = {39083192}, issn = {1654-7209}, }
@article {pmid39082863, year = {2024}, author = {Zeng, Z and Lam, VWY and Sumaila, UR and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Climate change alters social-ecological trade-offs in achieving ocean futures' targets.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {e17442}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17442}, pmid = {39082863}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; *Oceans and Seas ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; China ; Biodiversity ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The effects of climate change on marine ecosystems are causing cascading impacts on livelihood, food security, and culture through fisheries. Such impacts interact and exacerbate the effects of overfishing on marine social-ecological systems, complicating the rebuilding of ecosystems to achieve desirable and sustainable ocean futures. Developing effective pathways for ecosystem rebuilding requires consideration of the co-benefits and trade-offs between ecological and social dimensions and between fishing sectors. However, the effects of intensifying climate change on such co-benefits or trade-offs are yet to be well understood, particularly in regions where ecosystem rebuilding is urgently needed. We applied a numerical optimization routine to define the scope for improvement toward the Pareto-frontier for ecological robustness and economic benefits of the northern South China Sea (NSCS) and the East China Sea (ECS) ecosystems. These two ecosystems were used to represent over-exploited low- and mid-latitude systems, respectively, and the optimization aimed to improve their status through fisheries management. We find that the ECS ecosystem has the possibility of increasing the economic benefits generated by the fisheries it supports under climate change by 2050 while increasing the uncertainty of achieving biodiversity objectives. Nevertheless, climate change is projected to reduce the scope to restore ecosystem structures and the potential economic benefits in the NSCS ecosystem. This study highlights the contrasting impacts of climate change on the co-benefits/trade-offs in ecosystem rebuilding and the benefits obtainable by different fishing sectors even in neighboring ecosystems. We conclude that consideration at the nexus of climate-biodiversity-fisheries is a key to developing effective ecosystem rebuilding plan.}, }
@article {pmid39081076, year = {2024}, author = {Levy, O and Shahar, S}, title = {Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Biology: From Data Collection to Predictions.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icae127}, pmid = {39081076}, issn = {1557-7023}, abstract = {In the era of big data, ecological research is experiencing a transformative shift, yet advancements in thermal ecology and the study of animal responses to climate conditions remain limited. This review discusses how big data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) can significantly enhance our understanding of microclimates and animal behaviors under changing climatic conditions. We explore AI's potential to refine microclimate models and analyze data from advanced sensors and camera technologies, which capture detailed, high-resolution information. This integration allows researchers to dissect complex ecological and physiological processes with unprecedented precision. We describe how AI can enhance microclimate modeling through improved bias correction and downscaling techniques, providing more accurate estimates of the conditions that animals face under various climate scenarios. Additionally, we explore AI's capabilities in tracking animal responses to these conditions, particularly through innovative classification models that utilize sensors such as accelerometers and acoustic loggers. Moreover, the widespread usage of camera traps can benefit from AI-driven image classification models to accurately identify thermoregulatory responses, such as shade usage and panting. AI is therefore instrumental in monitoring how animals interact with their environments, offering vital insights into their adaptive behaviors. Finally, we discuss how these advanced data-driven approaches can inform and enhance conservation strategies. Detailed mapping of microhabitats essential for species survival under adverse conditions can guide the design of climate-resilient conservation and restoration programs that prioritize habitat features crucial for biodiversity resilience. In conclusion, the convergence of AI, big data, and ecological science heralds a new era of precision conservation, essential for addressing the global environmental challenges of the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid39080933, year = {2024}, author = {Poudel, K and Karki, S and Lamichhane, K and Timilsina, A and Dijkerman, S and Ghimire, J}, title = {Perception of Climate Change Vulnerability and its Impact on Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights in Khutiya and Banganga River Basins.}, journal = {Journal of Nepal Health Research Council}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {25-33}, doi = {10.33314/jnhrc.v22i01.4940}, pmid = {39080933}, issn = {1999-6217}, mesh = {Humans ; Nepal ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Adult ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Middle Aged ; *Reproductive Health ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Focus Groups ; Interviews as Topic ; Rivers ; Reproductive Rights ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. The drivers of climate risk include its topography, ecological diversity, climatic variability, natural resource dependency, under-development, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Climate change affects women and girls in unique ways. Research conducted in Asia Pacific region highlight negative sexual and reproductive health outcomes from climate change-related stressors such as droughts, floods, and air pollution, factors also linked to decreased SRH services utilization, increased maternal mortality rates, and repercussions on women's mental health.<br><br>METHODS: This is a mixed methods study conducted in two river basins including household surveys with 384 females ages 18-49, 12 focus group discussions, and 22 key informant interviews. We conducted descriptive and thematic analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: More than half relied on agriculture for income (66%). Despite one-third being heads of households, land ownership was low (13%). Climate change perceptions included rising temperatures (88%), increased heat wave (70%), drying water source (99%), and delayed monsoons (83%), impacting agriculture and increasing women's workload (61%) due to displacement and male migration. 64% reported disturbances in antenatal and postnatal care visits . Inaccessible healthcare facilities during the rainy season increased maternal mortality risks. Heavy river flooding hindered female community health volunteers access leading to childbirth complications. 82% of women feared being unable to protect their children post-climate events. Moreover, 21% of women faced gender-based violence during or after climate disasters.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest clear impacts of climate change on women and the communities. Thus, climate adaptation efforts must be designed to address the unique impacts of the crisis on women and girls, making space for their increased participation and leadership.}, }
@article {pmid39080505, year = {2024}, author = {Hannan, FM and Leow, MKS and Lee, JKW and Kovats, S and Elajnaf, T and Kennedy, SH and Thakker, RV}, title = {Endocrine effects of heat exposure and relevance to climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Endocrinology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39080505}, issn = {1759-5037}, abstract = {Climate change is increasing both seasonal temperatures and the frequency and severity of heat extremes. As the endocrine system facilitates physiological adaptations to temperature changes, diseases with an endocrinological basis have the potential to affect thermoregulation and increase the risk of heat injury. The effect of climate change and associated high temperature exposure on endocrine axis development and function, and on the prevalence and severity of diseases associated with hormone deficiency or excess, is unclear. This Perspective summarizes current knowledge relating to the hormonal effects of heat exposure in species ranging from rodents to humans. We also describe the potential effect of high temperature exposures on patients with endocrine diseases. Finally, we highlight the need for more basic science, clinical and epidemiological research into the effects of heat on endocrine function and health; this research could enable the development of interventions for people most at risk, in the context of rising environmental temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid39080449, year = {2024}, author = {Hinson, KE and Friedrichs, MAM and Najjar, RG and Bian, Z and Herrmann, M and St-Laurent, P and Tian, H}, title = {Response of hypoxia to future climate change is sensitive to methodological assumptions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {17544}, pmid = {39080449}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {NA16NOS4780207//United States Department of Commerce | NOAA | Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research (NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate-induced changes in hypoxia are among the most serious threats facing estuaries, which are among the most productive ecosystems on Earth. Future projections of estuarine hypoxia typically involve long-term multi-decadal continuous simulations or more computationally efficient time slice and delta methods that are restricted to short historical and future periods. We make a first comparison of these three methods by applying a linked terrestrial-estuarine model to the Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary in the eastern United States. Results show that the time slice approach accurately captures the behavior of the continuous approach, indicating a minimal impact of model memory. However, increases in mean annual hypoxic volume by the mid-twenty-first century simulated by the delta approach (+ 19%) are approximately twice as large as the time slice and continuous experiments (+ 9% and + 11%, respectively), indicating an important impact of changes in climate variability. Our findings suggest that system memory and projected changes in climate variability, as well as simulation length and natural variability of system hypoxia, should be considered when deciding to apply the more computationally efficient delta and time slice methods.}, }
@article {pmid39080424, year = {2024}, author = {Tian, D}, title = {Irrigation expansion in the face of war and climate change.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39080424}, issn = {2662-1355}, support = {NSF-EAR-2144293//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, }
@article {pmid39080160, year = {2024}, author = {Corgo, J and Cruz, SS and Conceição, P}, title = {Nature-based solutions in spatial planning and policies for climate change adaptation: A literature review.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39080160}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {UI/BD/151235/2021//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; }, abstract = {Nature-based solutions (NbSs) are recognised as relevant to spatial planning in addressing societal challenges, although their uptake is limited and fragmented to some case studies, and difficulties emerge from their implementation and operationalisation. The research developed a literature review to investigate how NbS has been considered for its implementation and operationalisation in spatial planning and how NbS has been included across different policy instruments and used to address climate change adaptation (CCA). The results highlighted: Firstly, the review contributed to bridge the gap in NbS implementation and operationalisation by proposing a novel three-dimensional categorisation system to guide the selection of suitable NbS principles to address societal challenges; secondly, this study still revealed gaps in some policy areas, despite the effort to extensively apply NbS across diverse policy instruments to CCA. Overall, the review further emphasises the need for future research focused on monitoring and evaluating NbS's effectiveness to CCA.}, }
@article {pmid39079404, year = {2024}, author = {Diagboya, PN and Düring, RA}, title = {Assessing global-warming induced soil organic matter and iron oxides depletion: Empirical insights into sorption and uptake of atrazine by plants.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {283}, number = {}, pages = {116794}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2024.116794}, pmid = {39079404}, issn = {1090-2414}, abstract = {Recent pesticide use is alarmingly high and unregulated in several parts of the world. Pesticide fate in soil is controlled by sorption processes which affect the subsequent transport and chemical reactivity in the environment, as well as uptake by plants. Sorption processes are dependent on soil composition and properties, but these are beginning to be affected by global warming-linked factors leading to soil depletion. Thus, it is vital to decipher soils' response, especially in the sub-Sahara (SS), to the depletion of some inherent components in the presence of pesticides. This was ascertained by monitoring a model pesticide (atrazine) sorption and desorption on whole SS soil (WS), and the same soil whose organic matter (OMR) and iron oxides (IOR) were substantially depleted, as well as studying atrazine uptake from these soils by fast-growing vegetables. Organic matter depletion enhanced equilibrium in OMR. Sorption was enhanced at lower ambient pH, higher initial atrazine concentration, and higher temperature. Hysteresis was low resulting in high desorption. Overall, atrazine desorption of ≥65 % was observed; it was higher in OMR (≥95 %) since SOM enhanced hysteresis. Though sub-Saharan soils are rich in iron oxides, SOM played a significantly higher role in sorption than iron oxides in this soil. This result suggests a high potential for atrazine to leach into the aquifer in the sub-Saharan. Atrazine uptake experiment by waterleaf and spinach showed that it could be detected in soil after 63 d, and its presence significantly affected the growth of both vegetables especially in soils with depleted SOM and iron oxides, and at high (100 µg/kg) atrazine spiking. Spinach may be a higher atrazine accumulator than waterleaf. It may be concluded that waterleaf and spinach grown on atrazine-contaminated soils, especially on SOM/iron oxide-depleted soils, are likely to accumulate atrazine.}, }
@article {pmid39078041, year = {2024}, author = {Adelodun, B and Agbelusi, OO and Soma, T and Odey, G and Adeyi, Q and Kumar, P and Ajibade, FO and Goala, M and Silva, LFO and Mostafa, YS and Singh, R and Choi, KS and Eid, EM}, title = {Rethinking food loss and waste to promote sustainable resource use and climate change mitigation in agri-food systems: A review.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {734242X241257655}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X241257655}, pmid = {39078041}, issn = {1096-3669}, abstract = {The sustainable agri-food system is an important sector recognized for promoting the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals on food security, resource conservation and climate change mitigation. However, the increasing food loss and waste (FLW) along the supply chains has continued to hinder these goals. This study evaluates the trend of FLW research from 1975 to 2022 and how it promotes the achievement of resource and environmental sustainability in agri-food systems. The salient research themes and hotspots that are of interest to researchers were identified. Bibliometric and network analyses were carried out on scholarly research articles from the Scopus database using bibliometrix and VOSviewer. Furthermore, the content analysis was conducted on the selected highly influential articles containing relevant data to understand the role of FLW in promoting sustainable agri-food systems. The results showed disaggregate and unbalanced research distribution on the impacts of FLW among the countries, with China and the United States having the highest contributions. The identified major research themes relating to sustainable agri-food systems are food waste and sustainable systems, food waste management and food waste impact assessment. Moreover, the circular economy was found to be a relatively new approach being explored in agri-food systems to promote FLW reduction and ensure sustainability of resource use. This study highlights the critical role of the impact of FLW in addressing the grand challenge of food security, resource use efficiency and environmental sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid39077386, year = {2024}, author = {Bergquist, R and Zheng, JX and Zhou, XN}, title = {Synergistic integration of climate change and zoonotic diseases by artificial intelligence: a holistic approach for sustainable solutions.}, journal = {Science in One Health}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {100070}, pmid = {39077386}, issn = {2949-7043}, abstract = {Artificial intelligence (AI) is a rapidly evolving field that can impel research in communicable diseases with respect to climate projections, ecological indicators and environmental impact, at the same time revealing new, previously overlooked events. A number of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases already show signs of expanding their northern geographical ranges and appropriate risk assessment and decision support are urgently needed. The deployment of AI-enabled monitoring systems tracking animal populations and environmental changes is of immense potential in the study of transmission under different climate scenarios. In addition, AI's capability to identify new treatments should not only accelerate drug and vaccine discovery but also help predicting their effectiveness, while its contribution to genetic pathogen speciation would assist the evaluation of spillover risks with regard to viral infections from animals to human. Close collaboration between AI experts, epidemiologists and other stakeholders is not only crucial for responding to challenges interconnected with a variety of variables effectively, but also necessary to warrant responsible AI use. Despite its wider successful implementation in many fields, AI should be seen as a complement to, rather than a replacement of, traditional public health measures.}, }
@article {pmid39076828, year = {2024}, author = {Semenov, MA and Senapati, N and Coleman, K and Collins, AL}, title = {A dataset of CMIP6-based climate scenarios for climate change impact assessment in Great Britain.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {55}, number = {}, pages = {110709}, pmid = {39076828}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Climate change is a critical issue in the 21st century. Assessment of the impacts of climate change is beneficial for assisting advanced recommendations for adaptations. Climate change impact assessments require high quality local-scale climate scenarios. The future climate projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs) are problematic to use at local scale due to their coarse spatial and temporal resolution, and existing biases. It is important to have climate change scenarios based on the GCMs ensemble downscaled to local scale to account for inherent uncertainty in climate projections, and to have a sufficient large number of years to account for inter-annual climate variability and low frequency, but high impact, extreme climatic events. A dataset of future climate change scenarios was therefore generated at 26 representative sites across Great Britain based on the latest CMIP6 multi-model ensemble downscaled to local-scale by using a stochastic weather generator, LARS-WG 8.0. The data set consists of climate scenarios of daily weather of 1,000 realizations of typical years for a baseline, and very near (2030) and near-future (2050) climates, based on five GCMs and two emission scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSPs viz. SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). A total of 15 GCMs from the CMIP6 ensemble were integrated in LARS-WG 8.0. LARS-WG downscales future climate projections from the GCMs and incorporates changes at local scale in the mean climate, climatic variability, and extreme events by modifying the statistical distributions of the weather variables at each site. Based on the performance of the GCMs over northern Europe and their climate sensitivity, a subset of five GCMs was selected, viz.; ACCESS-ESM1-5, CNRM-CM6-1, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM1-2-LR and MRI-ESM2-0. The selected GCMs are evenly distributed among the full set of 15 GCMs. The use of a subset of GCMs substantially reduces computational time, while allowing assessment of uncertainties in impact studies related to uncertain future climate projections arising from GCMs. The 1000 years of daily weather for the baseline, as well as for very near and near-future climate change scenarios, are essential for estimating inter-annual variation, and for detecting low frequency, but high impact, extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, floods and droughts. The present dataset can be used as an input to climate change impact models in various fields, including, land and water resources, agriculture and food production, ecology and epidemiology, and human health and welfare. Researchers, breeders, farm managers, social and public sector leaders, and policymakers may benefit from this new dataset when undertaking impact assessments of climate change and decision support for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39076136, year = {2024}, author = {Huston, P}, title = {Climate change and the pivotal role of health professionals.}, journal = {Journal of evaluation in clinical practice}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jep.14103}, pmid = {39076136}, issn = {1365-2753}, }
@article {pmid39075833, year = {2024}, author = {Ludwig-Beymer, P}, title = {The Role of Transcultural Nurses in Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of transcultural nursing : official journal of the Transcultural Nursing Society}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {262}, doi = {10.1177/10436596241259020}, pmid = {39075833}, issn = {1552-7832}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Transcultural Nursing/trends ; Nurse's Role/psychology ; }, }
@article {pmid39075368, year = {2024}, author = {Ansah, EW and Amoadu, M and Obeng, P and Sarfo, JO}, title = {Health systems response to climate change adaptation: a scoping review of global evidence.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {2015}, pmid = {39075368}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Delivery of Health Care/organization &amp; administration ; Global Health ; Health Policy ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The health system plays a critical role in safeguarding the well-being of communities in the face of health risks associated with climate change. This review maps evidence on health systems' adaptation to climate risk and barriers to effective adaptation.<br><br>METHODS: This review followed the recommendations by Arksey and O'Malley for conducting scoping review. Search for records was conducted in PubMed, Central, Web of Science, JSTOR, Google, and Google Scholar. Only peer-reviewed papers published in English language were included in this review. All the 63 included studies were critically appraise d.<br><br>RESULTS: We found that efforts are being made to create resilient health systems by incorporating climate change into health policies. Investments are being made in innovative technologies, climate-resilient health infrastructure, enhancing healthcare delivery, developing the capacity of climate specialists and agencies to provide high-quality evidence for resilient health systems. We also found that several obstacles prevent health system adaptation to climate risk, including poor policy implementation and evaluation. The obstacles are further exacerbated by financial constraints, including poverty, a lack of political commitment, inadequate data, and deficient healthcare systems, especially in developing countries. There is also a lack of integration of climate change into mental health actions and the health and safety of healthcare workers.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Efforts to develop resilient health systems against climate risks are underway, but persistent obstacles, including inadequate policy implementation, resource limitations, and a lack of integration of climate change into critical health domains, hinder comprehensive adaptation measures, particularly in developing nations.}, }
@article {pmid39075185, year = {2024}, author = {Sarikaya, AG and Uzun, A and Turan, FD}, title = {Effect of climate change on current and future potential distribution of Strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) in Türkiye.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {17408}, pmid = {39075185}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2209//T&#xdc;B&#x130;TAK/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Ericaceae/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The demand for nontimber forest products (NTFPs) has increased significantly in recent years. Hundreds of plant species that grow naturally in Türkiye have medicinal and aromatic value. Medicinal and aromatic plants are primarily used as a sources of tea, spices, condiments and essential oils. Species belonging to the genus Arbutus L. are used for decorative purposes and as fuel wood in many wood-based industries, they also have a wide range of uses in packaging, chairs making and furniture production. Additionally, the fruits of these trees are widely consumed by humans and animals because they are rich in sugar and vitamin C. It is predicted that changes in climatic conditions will significantly change the distribution, composition and function of forests threatening biodiversity. The purpose of this study was to model current and future potential geographical distributions of Arbutus unedo L., which is among the species that naturally grow in Türkiye and is of substantial value in terms of its ecological contribution to forest ecosystems, based on species presence data and environmental variables (bioclimatic variables and altitude). The current and future distribution area models for Arbutus unedo L. indicate that the potential distribution areas of the species in the coming years will gradually decrease, and in the SSP5 8.5 model, which represents the highest level of world resource usage this gradual decrease will reach its highest level and there will be no suitable distribution area left for the species. Therefore, it is predicted that the species will become endangered. In-situ and ex-situ conservation measures need to be taken to ensure the sustainability of the species in forestry and landscape areas.}, }
@article {pmid39075170, year = {2024}, author = {Parsons, ES and Jowell, A and Veidis, E and Barry, M and Israni, ST}, title = {Correction: Climate change and inequality.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41390-024-03443-6}, pmid = {39075170}, issn = {1530-0447}, }
@article {pmid39075084, year = {2024}, author = {Aroyehun, AR and Ugwuja, VC and Onoja, AO}, title = {Determinants of melon farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change hazards in south‒south Nigeria.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {17395}, pmid = {39075084}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Nigeria ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Farmers ; *Cucurbitaceae/physiology ; Male ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Female ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Agriculture/methods ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Adaptation, Physiological ; }, abstract = {The constant changes experienced in agricultural activities due to climate change pose a great challenge to melon production. Hence, this research examined the determinants of melon farmers' adaptation strategies to cope with climate change hazards in southern-southern Nigeria. The research ultimately depended on primary data collected by using a set of questionnaires and interviews. The data were obtained from 260 samples retrieved from melon farmers by using multistage sampling techniques. The data were analyzed using the multivariate probit (MVP) model and partial eta squared test. The results of the MVP model showed that age (- 0.009), marital status (0.200), access to information on climate change (0.567) and crop insurance (0.214) were significant at the 0.01 level, while household size (- 0.030) was significant at the 0.05 level and determined the adoption of crop diversification. Educational level (0.012), extension contact (0.138) and access to credit (0.122) were significant at the 0.05 level, while access to information on climate change (0.415) was significant at the 0.01 level and determined the adoption of change in planting dates. Age (- 0.010) and access to information on climate change (0.381) were significant at the 0.01 level, while sex (- 0.139), marital status (0.158) and off-farm income (- 2.3E-7) were significant at the 0.05 level and determined the adoption of mixed farming. Farming experience (0.005) is significant at the 0.05 level, while access to information on climate change (0.529) and crop insurance (0.272) are significant at the 0.01 level and determine the adoption of drought-tolerant crop species. Access to information on climate change (0.536) is significant at the 0.01 level, indicating the adoption of improved crop species. Age (- 0.010), farm size (- 0.085) and crop insurance (0.206) were significant at the 0.05 level, while access to information on climate change (0.353) was significant at the 0.01 level and determined the adoption of off-farm job opportunities. The study recommends the availability and accessibility of credit, climate-smart agricultural practices, and the establishment of public‒private partnerships, among others.}, }
@article {pmid39074429, year = {2024}, author = {Zhao, G and Tian, S and Chen, R and Cao, Y and Zhang, Y and Han, B}, title = {Effect of global climate change on the sustainability of cold-water fish habitat in the alpine region: A case study on the Gymnocypris eckloni in the source region of the Yellow River.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {367}, number = {}, pages = {121926}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121926}, pmid = {39074429}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change at the global scale affects the watershed's hydrology and the river's hydrodynamic, water temperature (WT), and habitat conditions of organisms. This article proposes a quantitative assessment methodology framework for analyzing the impact of GCC on the cold-water fish habitat. This framework integrated GCC, downscaling, hydrological, hydrodynamic, water temperature, and habitat models and was applied to the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR), where there are Gymnocypris eckloni (G. eckloni) resource reduction problems. In this study, we developed a high-precision, loosely integrated hydrological, hydrodynamic, WT coupling model for SWAT-MIKE21 in the SRYR. The optimal latitude and longitude range (6° × 6°) covering the SRYR was established for downscaling, and future meteorological data under three GCC models was obtained. The main results present the discharge of spawning, and juvenile G. eckloni indicates an increasing trend from the radiation forcing low to high and from the near now to the future term. The WT increased (decreased) in April and June (May), with a maximum increase/decrease of 3.1°C (SSP370 in 2100)/1.4°C (SSP585 in 2050). The weighted useable area (WUA) demonstrated a trend of severe fluctuations in May, June, and October, and other months are equal to the base year. Total WUA (TWUA) displayed an increasing trend, with the maximum increase in spawning and juvenile period being 134.46% and 270.89%, respectively. Ultimately, the rise in confluence discharge and WT caused by GCC in the SRYR benefits spawning and juvenile G. eckloni. The results have guiding significance for the development of long-term and adaptive protection and restoration measures for G. eckloni, and provide a plan for predicting the impact of climate change on other organisms in river ecosystems in high-altitude cold regions.}, }
@article {pmid39074290, year = {2024}, author = {Jerrett, M and Connolly, R and Garcia-Gonzales, DA and Bekker, C and Nguyen, JT and Su, J and Li, Y and Marlier, ME}, title = {Climate change and public health in California: A structured review of exposures, vulnerable populations, and adaptation measures.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {32}, pages = {e2310081121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2310081121}, pmid = {39074290}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {19RD015//California Air Resources Board (ARB)/ ; 80NSSC22K1684//NASA | Earth Sciences Division (ESD)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; California ; *Public Health ; Vulnerable Populations/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Air Pollution/analysis/adverse effects ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Wildfires ; }, abstract = {California faces several serious direct and indirect climate exposures that can adversely affect public health, some of which are already occurring. The public health burden now and in the future will depend on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, underlying population vulnerabilities, and adaptation efforts. Here, we present a structured review of recent literature to examine the leading climate risks to public health in California, including extreme heat, extreme precipitation, wildfires, air pollution, and infectious diseases. Comparisons among different climate-health pathways are difficult due to inconsistencies in study design regarding spatial and temporal scales and health outcomes examined. We find, however, that the current public health burden likely affects thousands of Californians each year, depending on the exposure pathway and health outcome. Further, while more evidence exists for direct and indirect proximal health effects that are the focus of this review, distal pathways (e.g., impacts of drought on nutrition) are more uncertain but could add to this burden. We find that climate adaptation measures can provide significant health benefits, particularly in disadvantaged communities. We conclude with priority recommendations for future analyses and solution-driven policy actions.}, }
@article {pmid39074287, year = {2024}, author = {Syphard, AD and Velazco, SJE and Rose, MB and Franklin, J and Regan, HM}, title = {The importance of geography in forecasting future fire patterns under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {32}, pages = {e2310076121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2310076121}, pmid = {39074287}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {1853697//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; CCR30009//California Strategic Growth Council (SGC)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; California ; *Forecasting ; *Wildfires ; *Ecosystem ; *Geography ; Humans ; Fires ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {An increasing amount of California's landscape has burned in wildfires in recent decades, in conjunction with increasing temperatures and vapor pressure deficit due to climate change. As the wildland-urban interface expands, more people are exposed to and harmed by these extensive wildfires, which are also eroding the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. With future wildfire activity expected to increase, there is an urgent demand for solutions that sustain healthy ecosystems and wildfire-resilient human communities. Those who manage disaster response, landscapes, and biodiversity rely on mapped projections of how fire activity may respond to climate change and other human factors. California wildfire is complex, however, and climate-fire relationships vary across the state. Given known geographical variability in drivers of fire activity, we asked whether the geographical extent of fire models used to create these projections may alter the interpretation of predictions. We compared models of fire occurrence spanning the entire state of California to models developed for individual ecoregions and then projected end-of-century future fire patterns under climate change scenarios. We trained a Maximum Entropy model with fire records and hydroclimatological variables from recent decades (1981 to 2010) as well as topographic and human infrastructure predictors. Results showed substantial variation in predictors of fire probability and mapped future projections of fire depending upon geographical extents of model boundaries. Only the ecoregion models, accounting for the unique patterns of vegetation, climate, and human infrastructure, projected an increase in fire in most forested regions of the state, congruent with predictions from other studies.}, }
@article {pmid39074285, year = {2024}, author = {Harrison, S and Franklin, J and Hernandez, RR and Ikegami, M and Safford, HD and Thorne, JH}, title = {Climate change and California's terrestrial biodiversity.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {32}, pages = {e2310074121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2310074121}, pmid = {39074285}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; California ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Fires ; Introduced Species ; Plants ; Animals ; }, abstract = {In this review and synthesis, we argue that California is an important test case for the nation and world because terrestrial biodiversity is very high, present and anticipated threats to biodiversity from climate change and other interacting stressors are severe, and innovative approaches to protecting biodiversity in the context of climate change are being developed and tested. We first review salient dimensions of California's terrestrial physical, biological, and human diversity. Next, we examine four facets of the threat to their sustainability of these dimensions posed by climate change: direct impacts, illustrated by a new analysis of shifting diversity hotspots for plants; interactive effects involving invasive species, land-use change, and other stressors; the impacts of changing fire regimes; and the impacts of land-based renewable energy development. We examine recent policy responses in each of these areas, representing attempts to better protect biodiversity while advancing climate adaptation and mitigation. We conclude that California's ambitious 30 × 30 Initiative and its efforts to harmonize biodiversity conservation with renewable energy development are important areas of progress. Adapting traditional suppression-oriented fire policies to the reality of new fire regimes is an area in which much progress remains to be made.}, }
@article {pmid39074284, year = {2024}, author = {Franklin, J and MacDonald, GM}, title = {Climate change and California sustainability-Challenges and solutions.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {32}, pages = {e2405458121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2405458121}, pmid = {39074284}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {1853697 AAA//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, }
@article {pmid39074270, year = {2024}, author = {Greenberg, M and Angelo, H and Losada, E and Wilmers, CC}, title = {Relational geographies of urban unsustainability: The entanglement of California's housing crisis with WUI growth and climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {32}, pages = {e2310080121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2310080121}, pmid = {39074270}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {California ; *Climate Change ; *Housing ; Humans ; Ecosystem ; Wildfires ; Geography ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Cities ; }, abstract = {One of California's most pressing social and environmental challenges is the rapid expansion of the wildlands-urban interface (WUI). Multiple issues associated with WUI growth compared to more dense and compact urban form are of concern-including greatly increased fire risk, greenhouse gas emissions, and fragmentation of habitat. However, little is understood about the factors driving this growth in the first place and, specifically, its relationship to urban-regional housing dynamics. This paper connects work in urban social science, urban and regional planning, and natural sciences to highlight the potential role of housing crises in driving displacement from the urban core to relatively more affordable exurbs, and with this, WUI growth. We analyze this relationship in California, which leads the nation in lack of affordable housing, scale of WUI growth, and many associated WUI hazards, including wildfire. We offer three related arguments: first, that California's affordable housing crisis, with its effect of driving migration to exurban areas, should be recognized as a significant urban form-related sustainability challenge; second, that to understand this challenge scholars must expand the spatial scale and analytic toolkit of both urban and WUI analysis through relational, mixed methods research; and third, that political and programmatic efforts to address California's housing crisis should undergird efforts to address WUI growth and climate change. Ultimately, we argue that expanding access to affordable urban housing can produce a more sustainable and just urban form that mitigates WUI-related climate and environmental impacts and reduces the vulnerability of growing numbers of WUI residents living in harm's way.}, }
@article {pmid39074269, year = {2024}, author = {Thorne, KM and MacDonald, GM and Chavez, FP and Ambrose, RF and Barnard, PL}, title = {Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {32}, pages = {e2310077121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2310077121}, pmid = {39074269}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {N/A//DOI | U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California's coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California's sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California's iconic coastal region.}, }
@article {pmid39074267, year = {2024}, author = {Power, ME and Chandra, S and Gleick, P and Dietrich, WE}, title = {Anticipating responses to climate change and planning for resilience in California's freshwater ecosystems.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {32}, pages = {e2310075121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2310075121}, pmid = {39074267}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {CZP EAR-1331940//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; ROL 1004895-01//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; California ; *Ecosystem ; *Fresh Water ; Animals ; Wetlands ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Humans ; Lakes ; }, abstract = {As human-caused climate changes accelerate, California will experience hydrologic and temperature conditions different than any encountered in recorded history. How will these changes affect the state's freshwater ecosystems? Rivers, lakes, and wetlands are managed as a water resource, but they also support a complex web of life, ranging from bacteria, fungi, and algae to macrophytes, woody plants, invertebrates, fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. In much of the state, native freshwater organisms already struggle to survive massive water diversions and dams, deteriorating water quality, extensive land cover modification for agriculture and urban development, and invasions of exotic species. In the face of climate change, we need to expand efforts to recover degraded ecosystems and to protect the resilience, health, and viability of existing ecosystems. For this, more process-based understanding of river, lake, and wetlands ecosystems is needed to forecast how systems will respond to future climate change and to our interventions. This will require 1) expanding our ability to model mechanistically how freshwater biota and ecosystems respond to environmental change; 2) hypothesis-driven monitoring and field studies; 3) education and training to build research, practitioner, stewardship, and policy capabilities; and 4) developing tools and policies for building resilient ecosystems. A goals-driven, hypothesis-informed collaboration among tribes, state (and federal) agencies, nongovernmental organizations, academicians, and consultants is needed to accomplish these goals and to advance the skills and knowledge of the future workforce of practitioners, regulators, and researchers who must live with the climate changes that are already upon us and will intensify.}, }
@article {pmid39074266, year = {2024}, author = {Pastor, M and Cha, JM and Méndez, M and Morello-Frosch, R}, title = {California dreaming: Why environmental justice is integral to the success of climate change policy.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {32}, pages = {e2310073121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2310073121}, pmid = {39074266}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {20224635-03//US Environmental Protection Agency/ ; }, abstract = {In the realm of climate policy, issues of environmental justice (EJ) are often treated as second-order affairs compared to overarching sustainability goals. We argue that EJ is in fact critical to successfully addressing our national and global climate challenges; indeed, centering equity amplifies the voices of the diverse constituencies most impacted by climate change and that are needed to build successful coalitions that shape and advance climate change policy. We illustrate this perspective by highlighting the experience of California and the contentious processes by which EJ became integrated into the state's climate action efforts. We examine the achievements and shortcomings of California's commitment to climate justice and discuss how lessons from the Golden State are influencing the evolution of current federal climate change policy.}, }
@article {pmid39070998, year = {2024}, author = {Verma, P and Nair, GR}, title = {Serpents and thermometers: Connecting the dots between climate change and the growing menace of snakebites.}, journal = {Journal of family medicine and primary care}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {2797-2798}, pmid = {39070998}, issn = {2249-4863}, }
@article {pmid39070907, year = {2024}, author = {Lin, X and Chang, B and Huang, Y and Jin, X}, title = {Predicting the impact of climate change and land use change on the potential distribution of two economic forest trees in Northeastern China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1407867}, pmid = {39070907}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Young shoots of Aralia elata and young leaves of Eleutherococcus senticosus are two major non-timber forest products in northeastern China. However, human activities and climate change have resulted in serious threats to the habitats of two trees, which greatly limits resource conservation and exploitation of economic forest trees. We used the MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitats of the two economic trees and analyzed the dominant factors affecting their distribution. The results showed that the suitable habitat areas of A. elata and E. senticosus in the current period were 159950 km[2] and 123449 km[2], respectively, and the suitable habitats of both economic forest trees were located in the eastern part of the northeast region. Climate factors (Annual precipitation, Precipitation Seasonality) and land use factors are important variables influencing changes in suitable habitat for both trees. With the change of climate and land use in the future, the overall trend of suitable habitat for both economic forest trees shows a northward and then a southward migration. These results may provide assistance in developing strategies for resource conservation and sustainable use of A. elata and E. senticosus, and we suggest that stable and suitable habitats should be selected as areas for in situ conservation and breeding of the two economic forest trees.}, }
@article {pmid39070777, year = {2023}, author = {Fry, TL and Owens, LA and Ketz, AC and Atwood, TC and Dunay, E and Goldberg, TL}, title = {Serum Virome of Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus) during a period of rapid climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {coad054}, pmid = {39070777}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Climate change affects the behavior, physiology and life history of many Arctic wildlife species. It can also influence the distribution and ecology of infectious agents. The southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) has experienced dramatic behavioral changes due to retreating sea ice and other climate-related factors, but the effects of these changes on physiology and infection remain poorly understood. Using serum from polar bears sampled between 2004 and 2015 and metagenomic DNA sequencing, we identified 48 viruses, all of the family Anelloviridae. Anelloviruses are small, ubiquitous infectious agents with circular single-stranded DNA genomes that are not known to cause disease but, in humans, covary in diversity and load with immunological compromise. We therefore examined the usefulness of anelloviruses as biomarkers of polar bear physiological stress related to climate and habitat use. Polar bear anelloviruses sorted into two distinct clades on a phylogenetic tree, both of which also contained anelloviruses of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), another ursid. Neither anellovirus diversity nor load were associated with any demographic variables, behavioral factors or direct physiological measures. However, pairwise genetic distances between anelloviruses were positively correlated with pairwise differences in sampling date, suggesting that the polar bear "anellome" is evolving over time. These findings suggest that anelloviruses are not a sensitive indicator of polar physiological stress, but they do provide a baseline for evaluating future changes to polar bear viromes.}, }
@article {pmid39070116, year = {2024}, author = {Davies, DL and Lawal, A and Orji, AE and Tytherleigh, C and Walsh, K}, title = {Digital learning, face-to-face learning and climate change.}, journal = {Future healthcare journal}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {100156}, pmid = {39070116}, issn = {2514-6645}, abstract = {Debates about digital learning, face-to-face learning and blended learning often focus on their effectiveness in achieving a few core educational outcomes. The cost or convenience of using different methods to achieve certain outcomes have increasingly come into the educational framework over the past two decades. However, only rarely do educators or learners consider the climate footprint of their various activities. This is an important shortcoming, as all learning activities can contribute to our overall climate footprint. Providers of education should do their best to minimise the carbon footprint associated with their learning. But learners also have responsibility to ensure that how they access learning is also associated with minimal environmental cost. Both providers and learners should focus on activities that are likely to have the greatest impact. This is relevant both to face-to-face education and digital learning.}, }
@article {pmid39067588, year = {2024}, author = {Ciceu, A and Bălăcenoiu, F and de Groot, M and Chakraborty, D and Avtzis, D and Barta, M and Blaser, S and Bracalini, M and Castagneyrol, B and Chernova, UA and Çota, E and Csóka, G and Dautbasic, M and Glavendekic, M and Gninenko, YI and Hoch, G and Hradil, K and Husemann, M and Meshkova, V and Mujezinovic, O and Mutun, S and Panzavolta, T and Paulin, M and Riba-Flinch, JM and Simov, N and Sotirovski, K and Vasilciuc, S and Zubrik, M and Schueler, S}, title = {The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174950}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950}, pmid = {39067588}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak (Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape.}, }
@article {pmid39065469, year = {2024}, author = {Bacelar, E and Pinto, T and Anjos, R and Morais, MC and Oliveira, I and Vilela, A and Cosme, F}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change and Mitigation Strategies for Some Abiotic and Biotic Constraints Influencing Fruit Growth and Quality.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {39065469}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {UIDB/04033/2020, UIDB/00616/2020 and UIDP/00616/2020-DOI: 10.54499/UIDB/00616/2020//FCT-Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the projects UIDB/04033/2020, UIDB/00616/2020 and UIDP/00616/2020-DOI: 10.54499/UIDB/00616/2020/ ; }, abstract = {Factors such as extreme temperatures, light radiation, and nutritional condition influence the physiological, biochemical, and molecular processes associated with fruit development and its quality. Besides abiotic stresses, biotic constraints can also affect fruit growth and quality. Moreover, there can be interactions between stressful conditions. However, it is challenging to predict and generalize the risks of climate change scenarios on seasonal patterns of growth, development, yield, and quality of fruit species because their responses are often highly complex and involve changes at multiple levels. Advancements in genetic editing technologies hold great potential for the agricultural sector, particularly in enhancing fruit crop traits. These improvements can be tailored to meet consumer preferences, which is crucial for commercial success. Canopy management and innovative training systems are also key factors that contribute to maximizing yield efficiency and improving fruit quality, which are essential for the competitiveness of orchards. Moreover, the creation of habitats that support pollinators is a critical aspect of sustainable agriculture, as they play a significant role in the production of many crops, including fruits. Incorporating these strategies allows fruit growers to adapt to changing climate conditions, which is increasingly important for the stability of food production. By investing in these areas, fruit growers can stay ahead of challenges and opportunities in the industry, ultimately leading to increased success and profitability. In this review, we aim to provide an updated overview of the current knowledge on this important topic. We also provide recommendations for future research.}, }
@article {pmid39065441, year = {2024}, author = {Matías, J and Rodríguez, MJ and Carrillo-Vico, A and Casals, J and Fondevilla, S and Haros, CM and Pedroche, J and Aparicio, N and Fernández-García, N and Aguiló-Aguayo, I and Soler-Rivas, C and Caballero, PA and Morte, A and Rico, D and Reguera, M and , }, title = {From 'Farm to Fork': Exploring the Potential of Nutrient-Rich and Stress-Resilient Emergent Crops for Sustainable and Healthy Food in the Mediterranean Region in the Face of Climate Change Challenges.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {39065441}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {RED2022-134382-T//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; }, abstract = {In the dynamic landscape of agriculture and food science, incorporating emergent crops appears as a pioneering solution for diversifying agriculture, unlocking possibilities for sustainable cultivation and nutritional bolstering food security, and creating economic prospects amid evolving environmental and market conditions with positive impacts on human health. This review explores the potential of utilizing emergent crops in Mediterranean environments under current climate scenarios, emphasizing the manifold benefits of agricultural and food system diversification and assessing the impact of environmental factors on their quality and consumer health. Through a deep exploration of the resilience, nutritional value, and health impacts of neglected and underutilized species (NUS) such as quinoa, amaranth, chia, moringa, buckwheat, millet, teff, hemp, or desert truffles, their capacity to thrive in the changing Mediterranean climate is highlighted, offering novel opportunities for agriculture and functional food development. By analysing how promoting agricultural diversification can enhance food system adaptability to evolving environmental conditions, fostering sustainability and resilience, we discuss recent findings that underscore the main benefits and limitations of these crops from agricultural, food science, and health perspectives, all crucial for responsible and sustainable adoption. Thus, by using a sustainable and holistic approach, this revision analyses how the integration of NUS crops into Mediterranean agrifood systems can enhance agriculture resilience and food quality addressing environmental, nutritional, biomedical, economic, and cultural dimensions, thereby mitigating the risks associated with monoculture practices and bolstering local economies and livelihoods under new climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid39065412, year = {2024}, author = {Li, Y and Zhaxi, D and Yuan, L and Li, A and Li, J and Wang, J and Liu, X and Liu, Y}, title = {The Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution Pattern of Species Richness of Endemic Wetland Plants in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {39065412}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Wetland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the region with the richest biodiversity and the most important ecological barrier function at high altitudes, are highly sensitive to global change, and wetland plants, which are important indicators of wetland ecosystem structure and function, are also threatened by wetland degradation. Therefore, a comprehensive study of changes in the geographical distribution pattern of plant diversity, as well as species loss and turnover of wetlands in the QTP in the context of global climate change is of great importance for the conservation and restoration of wetland ecosystems in the QTP. In this study, species turnover and loss of 395 endemic wetland plants of the QTP were predicted based on the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenarios. The results showed that there were interspecific differences in the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of species, and that most endemic wetland plants would experience range contraction. Under the climate change scenarios, the loss of suitable wetland plant habitat is expected to occur mainly in parts of the southern, north-central and north-western parts of the plateau, while the gain is mainly concentrated in parts of the western Sichuan Plateau, the Qilian Mountains, the Three Rivers Source Region and the northern Tibetan Plateau. Overlaying the analysis of priority protected areas with the established protected areas in the QTP has resulted in the following conservation gaps: the eastern Himalayan region, midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the transition zone between the northern Tibetan Plateau and the Hengduan Mountains, Minshan-Qionglai mountain, Anyemaqen Mountains (southeast) to Bayankala (southeast) mountains, the southern foothills of the Qilian Mountains and the northern Tibetan Plateau region. In the future, the study of wetland plant diversity in the QTP and the optimisation of protected areas should focus on the conservation gaps. This study is of great importance for the study and conservation of wetland plant diversity in the QTP, and also provides a scientific basis for predicting the response of wetland plants to climate change in the QTP.}, }
@article {pmid39065356, year = {2024}, author = {Riahinezhad, M and Esmizadeh, E and Lopez-Carreon, I and Gaur, A and Lu, H and Lacasse, MA}, title = {Crack Length of Elastomeric Sealants and Their Service Life in Contrasting Canadian Climates: Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {Polymers}, volume = {16}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {39065356}, issn = {2073-4360}, abstract = {The longevity of polymer-based sealant and jointing products, including elastomers, significantly depends on the level of exposure to sunlight and joint movement. These factors are particularly crucial in the application of polymers in construction due to their susceptibility to degradation under environmental conditions. For instance, diurnal cycles of contraction and dilation, arising from daily temperature fluctuations, impose significant stress on sealants and joints, impacting their durability over time. The elastic nature of polymeric sealants enables them to endure these cyclic mechanical loads. Athough there is considerable information on sealant durability obtained from laboratory accelerated aging, there is limited knowledge about the effect of climatic factors using historical and projected weather data on the durability and expected service life of these products. This study employed the Shephard crack growth model to predict the performance of sealants in a Canadian context; the crack growth and time-to-failure of hypothetical silicone sealants were investigated across 564 locations, for which historical climate data were obtained from 1998 to 2017, including gridded reanalysis data for the period of 1836-2015. The historical climate data were classified into four climate categories, and crack growth was estimated based on historical climatic data within the valid range for the Shephard model, revealing that locations in colder climates with lower levels of precipitation typically exhibit higher cumulative crack growth. The impact of climatic variation and environmental stressors on the longevity of sealants in the context of climate change was also investigated using future projected data.}, }
@article {pmid39065248, year = {2024}, author = {Sixto, M and Riobó, P and Rodríguez, F and Díaz, PA and Figueroa, RI}, title = {Climate Change Stressors, Phosphate Limitation, and High Irradiation Interact to Increase Alexandrium minutum Toxicity and Modulate Encystment Rates.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {39065248}, issn = {2076-2607}, support = {CTM2017-86066-R//MINECO Spain, RETOS Programme/ ; PID2021-125643OB-C22//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n, Spain/ ; EAPA 182/2016//EU-INTERREG Atlantic Area/ ; IN607A-2019/04//Galician Networks of Excellence from the Innovation Agency/ ; PIA project FB0001//Agencia Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n y Desarrollo, Chile/ ; }, abstract = {The changes in the cell physiology (growth rate, cell size, and cell DNA content), photosynthetic efficiency, toxicity, and sexuality under variable light and nutrient (phosphates) conditions were evaluated in cultures of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum obtained from a red tide in the Ría de Vigo (NW Spain). The cells were grown at low (40 and 150 µE m[-2] s[-1]), moderate (400 µE m[-2] s[-1]), and high (800 µE m[-2] s[-1]) light intensities in a medium with phosphate (P+) and without (P-). Cultures were acclimated to the irradiance conditions for one week, and the experiment was run for ~1 month. The cell size and DNA content were monitored via flow cytometry. Two different clonal strains were employed as a monoculture (in a P- or P+ medium) or, to foster sexuality and resting cyst formation, as a mixed culture (only in a P- medium). A. minutum growth was favored by increasing light intensities until 400 µE m[-2] s[-1]. The DNA content analyses indicated the accumulation of S-phase cells at the highest light intensities (400 and 800 µE m[-2] s[-1]) and therefore the negative effects on cell cycle progression. Only when the cells were grown in a P- medium did higher light intensities trigger dose-dependent, significantly higher toxicities in all the A. minutum cultures. This result suggests that the toxicity level is responsive to the combined effects of (high) light and (low) P stress. The cell size was not significantly affected by the light intensity or P conditions. The optimal light intensity for resting cyst formation was 150 µE m[-2] s[-1], with higher irradiances reducing the total encystment yield. Encystment was not observed at the lowest light intensity tested, indicative of the key role of low-level irradiance in gamete and/or zygote formation, in contrast to the stressor effect of excessive irradiance on planozygote formation and/or encystment.}, }
@article {pmid39065076, year = {2024}, author = {Mansfield, KL and Schilling, M and Sanders, C and Holding, M and Johnson, N}, title = {Arthropod-Borne Viruses of Human and Animal Importance: Overwintering in Temperate Regions of Europe during an Era of Climate Change.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {39065076}, issn = {2076-2607}, support = {SV3045//Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs/ ; SE4116//Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs/ ; SE0566//Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs/ ; BBS/E/I/00007036/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The past three decades have seen an increasing number of emerging arthropod-borne viruses in temperate regions This process is ongoing, driven by human activities such as inter-continental travel, combined with the parallel emergence of invasive arthropods and an underlying change in climate that can increase the risk of virus transmission and persistence. In addition, natural events such as bird migration can introduce viruses to new regions. Despite the apparent regularity of virus emergence, arthropod-borne viruses circulating in temperate regions face the challenge of the late autumn and winter months where the arthropod vector is inactive. Viruses therefore need mechanisms to overwinter or they will fail to establish in temperate zones. Prolonged survival of arthropod-borne viruses within the environment, outside of both vertebrate host and arthropod vector, is not thought to occur and therefore is unlikely to contribute to overwintering in temperate zones. One potential mechanism is continued infection of a vertebrate host. However, infection is generally acute, with the host either dying or producing an effective immune response that rapidly clears the virus. There are few exceptions to this, although prolonged infection associated with orbiviruses such as bluetongue virus occurs in certain mammals, and viraemic vertebrate hosts therefore can, in certain circumstances, provide a route for long-term viral persistence in the absence of active vectors. Alternatively, a virus can persist in the arthropod vector as a mechanism for overwintering. However, this is entirely dependent on the ecology of the vector itself and can be influenced by changes in the climate during the winter months. This review considers the mechanisms for virus overwintering in several key arthropod vectors in temperate areas. We also consider how this will be influenced in a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid39063531, year = {2024}, author = {Hale, RB and Bryant-Moore, K and Eichenberger, A}, title = {Climate Change and Health Risk Perceptions of Arkansas Small Farmers through the Application of the Health Belief Model.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {39063531}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {U54-OH00754//Southwest Center for Agricultural Health, Injury Prevention, and Education through Cooperative Agreement/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Arkansas ; *Farmers/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Male ; Adult ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Middle Aged ; Female ; Health Belief Model ; Health Status ; Young Adult ; Agriculture ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses health risks to Arkansas small farmers. Farmers face an increased risk of heat-related illnesses (e.g., heat exhaustion, cerebral vascular accidents, and cardiovascular issues) and work-related injuries, death, and mental health conditions due to climate change. This cross-sectional survey employed the health belief model (HBM) as its theoretical framework. This study aimed to assess the health status of small farmers, climate change beliefs, adaptive agricultural practices, and the perceived effects of climate change on health. Study data were collected using non-probability sampling methods from small farmers (n = 72) with a gross farm income of < USD 250,000. The study findings show that 93% of participants reported good-excellent health, 69% believe the climate is changing and getting warmer, 58.3% believe people are responsible for the changes in our climate, and 75% believe the changing climate impacts farmers. Among the HBM predictive variables, participants reported self-efficacy (50%), perceived susceptibility (48.6%), and perceived severity (43%). Only 16.7% of farmers reported believing they have all the information needed to prepare for climate-related health impacts. This study suggests small farmers have protective factors and adaptive capacity, including health status, income, and education levels, but believe they lack the information necessary to protect their health from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39063473, year = {2024}, author = {Tomassini, L and Lancia, M and Gambelunghe, A and Zahar, A and Pini, N and Gambelunghe, C}, title = {Exploring the Nexus of Climate Change and Substance Abuse: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {39063473}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Substance-Related Disorders/epidemiology ; Humans ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The increase in average air temperature and multiple extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts, pose significant health risks to humans. This scoping review aims to examine the current state of the existing literature concerning the potential relationship between substance abuse and climate change, along with the aspects it encompasses.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: The review followed PRISMA guidelines for methodological rigor, aiming to identify studies on drug abuse. Searches were conducted across the primary databases using specific search strings. Quality assessment involved evaluating the research question's clarity, search strategy transparency, consistency in applying the inclusion/exclusion criteria, and reliability of data extraction.<br><br>RESULTS: Most studies were conducted in the USA. They included observational and retrospective quantitative studies, as well as qualitative and prospective observational ones. Research examined the correlation between extreme weather and some substance abuse. All studies analyzed the adverse effects of climate change, especially heatwaves, on both physiological and pathological levels.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The scoping review notes the scarcity of studies about the correlation between substance abuse and climate change, and emphasizes the threats faced by individuals with substance abuse and mental health disorders due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39063403, year = {2024}, author = {Rizzo Pesci, N and Teobaldi, E and Maina, G and Rosso, G}, title = {Climate Change and Psychiatry: The Correlation between the Mean Monthly Temperature and Admissions to an Acute Inpatient Unit.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph21070826}, pmid = {39063403}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Psychiatric disorders are large contributors to the global disease burden, but research on the impact of climate change on them is limited. Our aim is to investigate the correlation between temperature and exacerbations of psychiatric disorders to help inform clinical management and future public health policies.<br><br>METHODS: Temperature records for the summer months from 2013 to 2022 were obtained from the meteorological station of the Department of Physics of Turin University. Data on patients admitted to the acute psychiatric unit were extracted from registries of San Luigi Gonzaga University Hospital (Turin, Italy). Regression analyses were used to investigate the correlation between temperature and number of admissions and to test for confounding variables.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 1600 admissions were recorded. The monthly temperature and number of admissions were directly correlated (p = 0.0020). The correlation was significant for the subgroup of admissions due to Bipolar Disorders (p = 0.0011), but not for schizophrenia or major depressive disorder. After multiple regression analyses, the effect of temperature remained significant (p = 0.0406).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm the impact of meteorological factors on mental disorders, particularly on BD. This can contribute to personalised follow-up and efficient resource allocation and poses grounds for studies into etiopathological mechanisms and therapeutic implications.}, }
@article {pmid39063092, year = {2024}, author = {Stojchevski, R and Chandrasekaran, P and Hadzi-Petrushev, N and Mladenov, M and Avtanski, D}, title = {Adipose Tissue Dysfunction Related to Climate Change and Air Pollution: Understanding the Metabolic Consequences.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {25}, number = {14}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijms25147849}, pmid = {39063092}, issn = {1422-0067}, abstract = {Obesity, a global pandemic, poses a major threat to healthcare systems worldwide. Adipose tissue, the energy-storing organ during excessive energy intake, functions as a thermoregulator, interacting with other tissues to regulate systemic metabolism. Specifically, brown adipose tissue (BAT) is positively associated with an increased resistance to obesity, due to its thermogenic function in the presence of uncoupled protein 1 (UCP1). Recently, studies on climate change and the influence of environmental pollutants on energy homeostasis and obesity have drawn increasing attention. The reciprocal relationship between increasing adiposity and increasing temperatures results in reduced adaptive thermogenesis, decreased physical activity, and increased carbon footprint production. In addition, the impact of climate change makes obese individuals more prone to developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). An impaired response to heat stress, compromised vasodilation, and sweating increase the risk of diabetes-related comorbidities. This comprehensive review provides information about the effects of climate change on obesity and adipose tissue, the risk of T2DM development, and insights into the environmental pollutants causing adipose tissue dysfunction and obesity. The effects of altered dietary patterns on adiposity and adaptation strategies to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change are also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid39061532, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, M and Feng, W and Liu, Z and Li, Z and Song, X and Zhang, H and Zhang, C and Yang, L}, title = {Seasonal-Spatial Distribution Variations and Predictions of Loliolus beka and Loliolus uyii in the East China Sea Region: Implications from Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {14}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani14142070}, pmid = {39061532}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {2022TD01//the Central Public-Interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate change profoundly impacts the East China Sea ecosystem and poses a major challenge to fishery management in this region. In addition, closely related species with low catches are often not distinguished in fishery production and relevant data are commonly merged in statistics and fishing logbooks, making it challenging to accurately predict their habitat distribution range. Here, merged fisheries-independent data of the closely related squid Loliolus beka (Sasaki, 1929) and Loliolus uyii (Wakiya and Ishikawa, 1921) were used to explore the construction and prediction performance of species distribution models. Data in 2018 to 2019 from the southern Yellow and East China Seas were used to identify the seasonal-spatial distribution characteristics of both species, revealing a boundary line at 29.00° N for L. uyii during the autumn, with the highest average individual weight occurring during the summer, with both larvae and juveniles occurring during the autumn. Thus, the life history of L. uyii can be divided into winter-spring nursery and summer-autumn spawning periods. L. beka showed a preference for inshore areas (15-60 m) during the summer and offshore areas (32.00-78.00 m) during the winter. High-value areas of both species included inshore areas of the southern Yellow and mid-East China Seas during the autumn, enlarging during the spring to include central areas of the survey region, before significantly decreasing during the summer. Therefore, this study provides both a novel perspective for modeling biological habitat distribution with limited data and a scientific basis for the adjustment of fishery resource management and conservation measures in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39059663, year = {2024}, author = {Li, N and Zhao, Y and Han, J and Yang, Q and Liang, J and Liu, X and Wang, Y and Huang, Z}, title = {Impacts of future climate change on rice yield based on crop model simulation-A meta-analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {175038}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175038}, pmid = {39059663}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Rice is one of the world's major food crops. Changes in major climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, solar radiation and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration have an important impact on rice growth and yield. However, many of the current studies that predict the impact of future climate change on rice yield are affected by uncertainties such as climate models, climate scenarios, model parameters and structure, and showing great differences. This study was based on the assessment results of the impact of climate change on rice in the future of 111 published literature, and comprehensively analyzed the impact and uncertainty of climate change on rice yield. This study utilized local polynomial (Loess) regression analysis to investigate the impact of changes in mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation on relative rice yield variations within a complete dataset. A linear mixed-effects model was used to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the restricted datasets. The qualitative analysis based on the entire dataset revealed that rice yields decreased with increasing average temperature. The precipitation changed between 0 and 25 %, it was conducive to the stable production of rice, and when the precipitation changed >25 %, it would cause rice yield reduction. The change of solar radiation was less than -1.15 %, the rice yield increases with the increase of solar radiation, and when the change of solar radiation exceeds -1.15 %, the rice yield decreases. Elevated CO2 concentrations and management practices could mitigate the negative effects of climate change. The results of a quantitative analysis utilizing the mixed effects model revealed that average temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration, and adaptation methods all had a substantial impact on rice production, and elevated CO2 concentrations and management practices could exert positive influences on rice production. For every 1 °C and 1 % increase in average temperature and precipitation, rice yield decreased by 3.85 % and 0.56 %, respectively. For every 100 ppm increase in CO2 concentration, rice yield increased by 7.1 %. The variation of rice yield under different climate models, study sites and climate scenarios had significant variability. Elevated CO2 concentrations and management practices could compensate for the negative effects of climate change, benefiting rice production. This study comprehensively collected and analyzed a wide range of literature and research, which provides an in-depth understanding of the impacts of climate change on rice production and informs future research and policy development.}, }
@article {pmid39056731, year = {2024}, author = {Huang, Y and Li, T and Chen, W and Zhang, Y and Xu, Y and Guo, T and Wang, S and Liu, J and Qin, Y}, title = {Analysis of the Distribution Pattern of Phenacoccus manihoti in China under Climate Change Based on the Biomod2 Model.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology13070538}, pmid = {39056731}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2023YFC2605200//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 32202288//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 6232023//Beijing Natural Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {The changing global climate has significantly impacted the spread of plant pests. The cassava mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti) is among the most dangerous quarantine pests affecting cassavas worldwide, causing substantial losses in agricultural production and food security across several regions. Although China is currently free of the cassava mealybug, its proximity to affected countries and extensive trade with these regions necessitate a detailed understanding of the pest's distribution pattern and dynamic ecological niche changes. Using the Biomod2 model, we selected two historical climate scenarios and two future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the distribution patterns, potential habitats, distribution centers, and dynamic ecological niches of cassava mealybugs in China. Key environmental variables influencing the distribution were identified, including bio4, bio8, bio12, bio18, and bio19. The potential habitat of cassava mealybugs is mainly located in several provinces in southern China. In the future, the suitable habitat is projected to expand slightly under the influence of climate change, maintaining the overall trend, but the distribution center of suitable areas will shift northward. Dynamic ecological niche prediction results indicate the potential for further expansion; however, the ecological niches may be unequal and dissimilar in the invaded areas. The predictions could serve as a valuable reference for early warning systems and management strategies to control the introduction of cassava mealybugs.}, }
@article {pmid39056675, year = {2024}, author = {Li, Y and Guo, M and Jiang, J and Dai, R and Rebi, A and Shi, Z and Mao, A and Zheng, J and Zhou, J}, title = {Predicting Climate Change Impact on the Habitat Suitability of the Schistosoma Intermediate Host Oncomelania hupensis in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology13070480}, pmid = {39056675}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {3227130539//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41071334//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Oncomelania hupensis is the exclusive intermediary host of Schistosoma japonicum in China. The alteration of O. hupensis habitat and population distribution directly affects the safety of millions of individuals residing in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) and the ecological stability of Yangtze River Basin. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the influence of climate change on the distribution of O. hupensis in order to achieve accurate control over its population. This study utilized the MaxEnt model to forecast possible snail habitats by utilizing snail distribution data obtained from historical literature. The following outcomes were achieved: The primary ecological factors influencing the distribution of O. hupensis are elevation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and precipitation of wettest month. Furthermore, future climate scenarios indicate a decrease in the distribution area and a northward shift of the distribution center for O. hupensis; specifically, those in the upstream will move northeast, while those in the midstream and downstream will move northwest. These changes in suitable habitat area, the average migration distance of distribution centers across different climate scenarios, time periods, and sub-basins within the YREB, result in uncertainty. This study offers theoretical justification for the prevention and control of O. hupensis along the YREB.}, }
@article {pmid39054995, year = {2024}, author = {Sacco, MA and Gualtieri, S and Tarzia, P and Verrina, MC and Coscarelli, P and Aquila, I}, title = {The impact of climate change on the crime scene and forensic sciences.}, journal = {La Clinica terapeutica}, volume = {175}, number = {Suppl 1(4)}, pages = {121-124}, doi = {10.7417/CT.2024.5098}, pmid = {39054995}, issn = {1972-6007}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forensic Sciences ; Humans ; Animals ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change causes great impact on ambient temperatures. In forensic pathology, temperature has always been an important variable to determine numerous thanatodiagnostic and thanatochronological parameters, as crucial elements to make scientifically valid forensic conclusions. The aim of this work is to describe the impact that climate change is having on the forensic science and crime scene analysis.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: A literature review was carried out on the search engines Pubmed, Scopus and Google Scholar. The keywords "climate change" AND "forensic" were used.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change is having a significant impact on forensic science in several areas. Among these it is necessary to consider: 1) global warming and crime scenes: high temperature of the planet causes frequent extreme meteorological events in multiple periods of the year; 2) Relationship between climate and PMI (Post Mortem Interval): Temperature influences the rapidity of putrefaction; 3) Relationship between climate and fauna: global warming is influencing the geographical distribution of animal species, with real migrations of species. Fauna has a decisive impact in the forensic field (as in the case of entomology) creating new models of animal-cadaver interaction; 4) Relationship between climate and forensic botany: Climate change influences the flowering and fruiting times of plants, impacting knowledge on botany used in the forensic field. It is essential to adopt prevention measures to address the emerging challenges.}, }
@article {pmid39054867, year = {2024}, author = {Tang, W and Liu, S and Jing, M and Healey, JR and Smith, MN and Farooq, TH and Zhu, L and Zhao, S and Wu, Y}, title = {Vegetation growth responses to climate change: A cross-scale analysis of biological memory and time lags using tree ring and satellite data.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {e17441}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17441}, pmid = {39054867}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {U20A2089//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2023CX01015//Scientific Innovation Fund for Post-graduates of Central South University of Forestry and Technology/ ; IEC\NSFC\223567//Royal Society International Exchanges grant/ ; Xiangzizike20230138ST//Natural Resources Science and Technology Project of Hunan Province/ ; CX20230751//Postgraduate Scientific Research Innovation Project of Hunan Province/ ; BK20220019//Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Trees/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Photosynthesis ; Liquidambar/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Temperature ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Satellite Imagery ; }, abstract = {Vegetation growth is affected by past growth rates and climate variability. However, the impacts of vegetation growth carryover (VGC; biotic) and lagged climatic effects (LCE; abiotic) on tree stem radial growth may be decoupled from photosynthetic capacity, as higher photosynthesis does not always translate into greater growth. To assess the interaction of tree-species level VGC and LCE with ecosystem-scale photosynthetic processes, we utilized tree-ring width (TRW) data for three tree species: Castanopsis eyrei (CE), Castanea henryi (CH, Chinese chinquapin), and Liquidambar formosana (LF, Chinese sweet gum), along with satellite-based data on canopy greenness (EVI, enhanced vegetation index), leaf area index (LAI), and gross primary productivity (GPP). We used vector autoregressive models, impulse response functions, and forecast error variance decomposition to analyze the duration, intensity, and drivers of VGC and of LCE response to precipitation, temperature, and sunshine duration. The results showed that at the tree-species level, VGC in TRW was strongest in the first year, with an average 77% reduction in response intensity by the fourth year. VGC and LCE exhibited species-specific patterns; compared to CE and CH (diffuse-porous species), LF (ring-porous species) exhibited stronger VGC but weaker LCE. For photosynthetic capacity at the ecosystem scale (EVI, LAI, and GPP), VGC and LCE occurred within 96 days. Our study demonstrates that VGC effects play a dominant role in vegetation function and productivity, and that vegetation responses to previous growth states are decoupled from climatic variability. Additionally, we discovered the possibility for tree-ring growth to be decoupled from canopy condition. Investigating VGC and LCE of multiple indicators of vegetation growth at multiple scales has the potential to improve the accuracy of terrestrial global change models.}, }
@article {pmid39049861, year = {2024}, author = {Mansinhos, I and Gonçalves, S and Romano, A}, title = {How climate change-related abiotic factors affect the production of industrial valuable compounds in Lamiaceae plant species: a review.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1370810}, pmid = {39049861}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The interest in medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) has increased significantly in recent years, driven by the growing demand for natural products. MAPs are a valuable source of secondary metabolites, which renders them useful to a number of industries, including cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and food. The Lamiaceae family includes economically important MAPs that produce valuable secondary metabolites such as essential oils (EOs) and phenolic compounds (PCs). The quantity and quality of these secondary metabolites are affected by abiotic stress factors. In a climate change scenario, the Lamiaceae is one of the most affected families, especially due to its wide distribution in the Mediterranean region. In the present study, the most common climate-related environmental stress factors, namely, drought, salinity, temperature, light, and heavy metals, were reviewed and discussed in order to assess their impact on the chemical profiles of EOs and PCs, as well as on the biological properties (antioxidant, antibacterial, antimelanogenic, pest-repellent, and UV-protective) of Lamiaceae species. It can be posited that these stresses typically act as a catalyst for the secondary metabolism of these plants, resulting in increased production of EO compounds (e.g., 1,8-cineole, linalool, camphor, borneol, and limonene) and PCs (e.g., rosmarinic, caffeic, and salvianolic acids) and subsequent enhancement of their biological activities. In view of the industrial applications of these bioactive compounds, it is of interest to explore the changes in secondary metabolism induced by environmental factors as it is possible to increase the accumulation of valuable secondary metabolites.}, }
@article {pmid39049577, year = {2024}, author = {Austin, MW and Smith, AB and Olsen, KM and Hoch, PC and Krakos, KN and Schmocker, SP and Miller-Struttmann, NE}, title = {Climate change increases flowering duration, driving phenological reassembly and elevated co-flowering richness.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.19994}, pmid = {39049577}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {DBI-1851727//Division of Biological Infrastructure/ ; }, abstract = {Changes to flowering phenology are a key response of plants to climate change. However, we know little about how these changes alter temporal patterns of reproductive overlap (i.e. phenological reassembly). We combined long-term field (1937-2012) and herbarium records (1850-2017) of 68 species in a flowering plant community in central North America and used a novel application of Bayesian quantile regression to estimate changes to flowering season length, altered richness and composition of co-flowering assemblages, and whether phenological shifts exhibit seasonal trends. Across the past century, phenological shifts increased species' flowering durations by 11.5 d on average, which resulted in 94% of species experiencing greater flowering overlap at the community level. Increases to co-flowering were particularly pronounced in autumn, driven by a greater tendency of late season species to shift the ending of flowering later and to increase flowering duration. Our results demonstrate that species-level phenological shifts can result in considerable phenological reassembly and highlight changes to flowering duration as a prominent, yet underappreciated, effect of climate change. The emergence of an autumn co-flowering mode emphasizes that these effects may be season-dependent.}, }
@article {pmid39048656, year = {2024}, author = {Martes, L and Pfleiderer, P and Köhl, M and Sillmann, J}, title = {Using climate envelopes and earth system model simulations for assessing climate change induced forest vulnerability.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {17076}, pmid = {39048656}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {390683824//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; }, abstract = {Changing climatic conditions threaten forest ecosystems. Drought, disease and infestation, are leading to forest die-offs which cause substantial economic and ecological losses. In central Europe, this is especially relevant for commercially important coniferous tree species. This study uses climate envelope exceedance (CEE) to approximate species risk under different future climate scenarios. To achieve this, we used current species presence-absence and historical climate data, coupled with future climate scenarios from various Earth System Models. Climate scenarios tended towards drier and warmer conditions, causing strong CEEs especially for spruce. However, we show that annual averages of temperature and precipitation obscure climate extremes. Including climate extremes reveals a broader increase in CEEs across all tree species. Our study shows that the consideration of climate extremes, which cannot be adequately reflected in annual averages, leads to a different assessment of the risk of forests and thus the options for adapting to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39047825, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, Y and Cai, H and Yan, Y and Wang, B and Pan, H and Zhang, P and Li, B and Zhao, T}, title = {Regime shifts in the thermal dynamics of offshore China due to accelerated global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174882}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174882}, pmid = {39047825}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Thermal dynamics play a pivotal role in offshore ecosystems, influencing a multitude of ecological and biogeochemical processes. Assessing how water temperature (WT) responds to climate change is vital for the sustainable development of marine ecosystems. Despite the scarcity of long-term sea surface temperature (SST) data, this study reconstructs SSTs from 1973 to 2020 in China's coastal zones using the data-driven Air2water model. A probabilistic approach was applied to investigate the joint dependency structures between air temperature (AT) and WT at offshore oceanic stations in China, focusing on variations during periods of decelerated and accelerated warming. The results indicate that the Air2water model performs well in reconstructing SSTs of the coastal zone of China. Furthermore, the joint probability of AT-WT events, characterized by bimodal distributions, tends to increase during accelerated warming. This suggests intensified extreme SST events in the coastal zone of China due to global warming, with the significant warming primarily related with regional oscillations, atmospheric dynamics, and the complex temperature trends in the regional marine environment. These findings highlight the escalating impact of global warming on marine ecosystems in China's coastal regions, underscoring the urgency of developing adaptive strategies to mitigate these effects.}, }
@article {pmid39042453, year = {2024}, author = {Bhawra, J and Elsahli, N and Patel, J}, title = {Applying Digital Technology to Understand Human Experiences of Climate Change Impacts on Food Security and Mental Health: Scoping Review.}, journal = {JMIR public health and surveillance}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e54064}, doi = {10.2196/54064}, pmid = {39042453}, issn = {2369-2960}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Food Security/statistics &amp; numerical data/methods ; *Mental Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Digital Technology ; Mobile Applications/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The global impact of climate change ranges from intense heatwaves to extreme weather events that endanger entire ecosystems and people's way of life. Adverse climate change events place undue stress on food and health systems, with consequences for human food security and mental health status. Ubiquitous digital devices, such as smartphones, have the potential to manage existing and emerging climate-related crises, given their ability to enable rapid response, instant communication, and knowledge sharing.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This scoping review aimed to identify digital apps being used to capture or address climate change impacts on food security and mental health to inform the development of a digital citizen science initiative.<br><br>METHODS: A scoping review was conducted using 3 peer-reviewed databases (PubMed, IEEE Xplore, and Web of Science) and manual gray literature searches of relevant organizational (ie, governmental and nonprofit) websites to identify articles and reports published between January 2012 and July 2023. Three separate searches were conducted in each database to identify digital apps focused on climate change and (1) food security, (2) mental health, and (3) food security and mental health. Two reviewers conducted initial screening, with a third reviewer resolving any discrepancies. Articles focused on climate change impacts on wildlife or agriculture (ie, not human food security) were excluded. Full-text screening was conducted for shortlisted articles, and a final data abstraction table was generated, summarizing key app features, contextual factors, and participant involvement.<br><br>RESULTS: From the 656 records screened, 14 digital apps met the inclusion criteria. The food security apps (n=7, 50%) aimed to capture traditional knowledge to preserve food systems, conduct food security assessments, and aid users in decreasing food insecurity risk. The mental health apps (n=7, 50%) assessed climate change-related stress and provided users with coping strategies following adverse weather events. No digital apps examined the intersection of climate change, food security, and mental health. Key app features included user-to-user communication (n=5, 36%), knowledge databases (n=5, 36%), data collection and analysis (n=3, 21%), gamification (n=1, 7%), and educational resources (n=2, 14%) to address climate change impacts on food security or mental health. In total, 3 approaches to participant involvement were used across studies, including contributory (n=1, 7%), collaborative (n=1, 7%), and cocreative (n=1, 7%) approaches, to ensure the relevance and use of digital apps.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Most digital apps identified provided a service to citizens to either prevent adverse climate change-related health impacts or manage these effects following an acute event or a natural disaster. The capacity of ubiquitous digital tools to enable near real-time communication, the involvement of various stakeholder groups, and their ability to share relevant educational resources in a timely manner are important for developing tailored climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across jurisdictions.}, }
@article {pmid39040977, year = {2024}, author = {Loud, ES and Woolf, GR and Ralph, A and Gadhia, T and Navaratnam, AMD and Watson, L and McGushin, A and Clissold, E and Hilton, B}, title = {Climate change and public health: An evaluation framework for local government.}, journal = {Public health in practice (Oxford, England)}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {100524}, pmid = {39040977}, issn = {2666-5352}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To develop and pilot an evaluation framework for assessing the engagement of local government public health teams in England on climate change and sustainability. These teams are uniquely positioned to address local health impacts of climate change and promote health co-benefits of mitigation. No statutory framework currently exists to support their engagement in this agenda.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: Literature review and two cross sectional surveys.<br><br>METHODS: A group of public health professionals conducted a literature review and agreed on criteria based on statutory responsibilities and remit of these teams, available information, and opportunities for local government action. With the resulting framework, this group evaluated all 11 local governments in the East of England region, and then conducted a follow-up survey to assess the framework's impact and acceptability.<br><br>RESULTS: An evaluation framework was developed with 21 criteria in two sections. The first assessed overall local government action and leadership in climate change and sustainability, to understand the context in which the public health team was situated. The second assessed the climate change related actions undertaken by the public health team.All 11 local governments in the East of England region completed the evaluation. Results indicated inconsistencies in local public health team action on and engagement with climate change and health. Ten local governments completed the follow-up survey on acceptability and impact, reporting that the evaluation was easy to complete. Seven out of ten respondents found that the evaluation had influenced change or reflection within their organisation, for example through identifying gaps and prompting more collaboration between teams.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation framework is a useful and acceptable tool to assess local government public health engagement and leadership on climate change and sustainability. If used more widely, it could help to support public health teams to advance much-needed action in this area.}, }
@article {pmid39040812, year = {2024}, author = {Ge, X and Newman, JA and Griswold, CK}, title = {Geographic variation in evolutionary rescue under climate change in a crop pest-predator system.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {17}, number = {7}, pages = {e13750}, pmid = {39040812}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Species distribution models (SDMs) are often built upon the "niche conservatism" assumption, such that they ignore the possibility of "evolutionary rescue" and may underestimate species' future range limits under climate change. We select aphids and ladybirds as model species and develop an eco-evolutionary model to explore evolutionary rescue in a predator-prey system under climate change. We model the adaptive change of species' thermal performances, accounting for biotic interactions. Our study suggests that, without considering evolutionary adaptation, the warming climate will result in a reduction in aphid populations and the extinction of ladybirds in large parts of the United States. However, when incorporating evolutionary adaptation into the model, aphids can adapt to climate change, whereas ladybirds demonstrate geographic variation in their evolutionary rescue potential. Specifically, ladybirds in southern regions are more likely to be rescued than those in the north. In certain northern regions, ladybirds do not avoid extinction due to severe warming trends and seasonality of the climate. While higher warming trends do prompt stronger evolutionary changes in phenotype, they also lead to reduced aphid population abundance such that ecology constrains ladybird population growth. Higher seasonality induces an ecological effect by limiting the length of reproductive season, thereby reducing the capacity for evolutionary rescue. Together, these findings reveal the complex interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics in the context of evolutionary adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid39039551, year = {2024}, author = {Spanos, S and Dammery, G and Pagano, L and Ellis, LA and Fisher, G and Smith, CL and Foo, D and Braithwaite, J}, title = {Learning health systems on the front lines to strengthen care against future pandemics and climate change: a rapid review.}, journal = {BMC health services research}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {829}, pmid = {39039551}, issn = {1472-6963}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Pandemics ; *Primary Health Care/organization &amp; administration ; *Learning Health System/organization &amp; administration ; Emergency Service, Hospital/organization &amp; administration ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: An essential component of future-proofing health systems against future pandemics and climate change is strengthening the front lines of care: principally, emergency departments and primary care settings. To achieve this, these settings can adopt learning health system (LHS) principles, integrating data, evidence, and experience to continuously improve care delivery. This rapid review aimed to understand the ways in which LHS principles have been applied to primary care and emergency departments, the extent to which LHS approaches have been adopted in these key settings, and the factors that affect their adoption.<br><br>METHODS: Three academic databases (Embase, Scopus, and PubMed) were searched for full text articles reporting on LHSs in primary care and/or emergency departments published in the last five years. Articles were included if they had a primary focus on LHSs in primary care settings (general practice, allied health, multidisciplinary primary care, and community-based care) and/or emergency care settings. Data from included articles were catalogued and synthesised according to the modified Institute of Medicine's five-component framework for LHSs (science and informatics, patient-clinician partnerships, incentives, continuous learning culture, and structure and governance).<br><br>RESULTS: Thirty-seven articles were included, 32 of which reported LHSs in primary care settings and seven of which reported LHSs in emergency departments. Science and informatics was the most commonly reported LHS component, followed closely by continuous learning culture and structure and governance. Most articles (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;30) reported on LHSs that had been adopted, and many of the included articles (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;17) were descriptive reports of LHS approaches.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Developing LHSs at the front lines of care is essential for future-proofing against current and new threats to health system sustainability, such as pandemic- and climate change-induced events. Limited research has examined the application of LHS concepts to emergency care settings. Implementation science should be utilised to better understand the factors influencing adoption of LHS approaches on the front lines of care, so that all five LHS components can be progressed in these settings.}, }
@article {pmid39038838, year = {2024}, author = {Adalat, S and Hajat, S and Ikiz, B}, title = {Climate change has serious implications for children's brain health.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {386}, number = {}, pages = {q1588}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q1588}, pmid = {39038838}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Child ; Brain/diagnostic imaging ; Child Health ; }, }
@article {pmid39037213, year = {2024}, author = {Kurt, A and Dinç, F and Güneş Şan, E and Uzun, &#x130;B}, title = {Development and validation of the climate change health protection behaviors scale for adolescents: a methodological study.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2024.2382903}, pmid = {39037213}, issn = {1369-1619}, abstract = {This study aimed to develop and validate the Climate Change Health Protection Behaviors Scale for adolescents. A total of 1036 adolescents were recruited from middle and high schools. The development of the assessment scale was carried out in three steps: item generation, content validity evaluation, and psychometric evaluation. Psychometric testing was conducted to determine the relationship between the resulting factors and the Healthy Lifestyle Belief Scale and Climate Change Awareness Scale. A 28-item scale was developed, consisting of four factors that account for 65.0% of the variance. The Cronbach's alpha value was 0.874. Additionally, a positive correlation was observed between the Climate Change Health Protection Behaviors Scale and both the Climate Change Awareness Scale and the Healthy Lifestyle Belief Scale for adolescents. These results suggest that the Climate Change Health Protection Behaviors Scale is a reliable and valid tool for evaluating health protection behaviors related to climate change in adolescents.}, }
@article {pmid39036420, year = {2020}, author = {Chimonyo, VGP and Wimalasiri, EM and Kunz, R and Modi, AT and Mabhaudhi, T}, title = {Optimizing Traditional Cropping Systems Under Climate Change: A Case of Maize Landraces and Bambara Groundnut.}, journal = {Frontiers in sustainable food systems}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {562568}, pmid = {39036420}, issn = {2571-581X}, abstract = {Traditional crop species are reported to be drought-tolerant and nutrient-dense with potential to contribute to sustainable food and nutrition security within marginal production systems under climate change. We hypothesized that intercropping maize landraces (Zea mays L.) with bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), together with optimum management strategies, can improve productivity and water use efficiency (WUE) under climate change. Using an ex-ante approach, we assessed climate change impacts and agronomic management options, such as plant ratios, and plant sequences, on yield and WUE of intercropped maize landrace and bambara groundnut. The Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model was applied over four time periods; namely past (1961-1991), present (1995-2025), mid-century (2030-2060) and late-century (2065-2095), obtained from six GCMs. Across timescales, there were no significant differences with mean annual rainfall, but late century projections of mean annual temperature and reference crop evaporation (ET0) showed average increases of 3.5°C and 155mm, respectively. By late century and relative to the present, the projected changes in yield and WUE were -10 and -15% and 5 and 7% for intercropped bambara groundnut and maize landrace, respectively. Regardless of timescale, increasing plant population improved yield and WUE of intercropped bambara groundnut. Asynchronous planting increased yield and WUE for both maize landrace (5 and 14%) and bambara groundnut (35 and 47%, respectively). Most significant improvements were observed when either crop was planted 2-3 months apart. To reduce yield gaps in intercrop systems, low-cost management options like changing plant populations and sequential cropping can increase yield and WUE under projected climate change. To further increase sustainability, there is a need to expand the research to consider other management strategies such as use of other traditional crop species, fertilization, rainwater harvesting and soil conservation techniques.}, }
@article {pmid39035707, year = {2020}, author = {Mpandeli, S and Nhamo, L and Hlahla, S and Naidoo, D and Liphadzi, S and Modi, AT and Mabhaudhi, T}, title = {Migration under Climate Change in Southern Africa: A Nexus Planning Perspective.}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {4722}, pmid = {39035707}, issn = {2071-1050}, abstract = {Population increase is exacerbating resource insecurities due to increased demand for already depleted resources. Coupled with climate change, they are the main drivers of both intra-(rural-urban and urban-urban) and inter-migration (from one country to the other). We carried out a systematic review of literature, focusing on available options to ensure water and food security, as well as improve the socio-economic environment, highlighting the drivers of migration in southern Africa. The aim was to develop informed adaptation strategies and build resilience in the advent of accelerated migration. We developed a migration conceptual framework based on the nexus between water, food and socio-economic interlinkages. Urban areas in southern Africa are under immense pressure to accommodate climate refugees from resource stressed rural areas, a situation that is impacting on agricultural production. Most urban areas are exceeding their ecological thresholds to support the built environment, causing some socio-ecological challenges. Nexus planning can inform adaptation planning on permissible migration that are aligned with regional goals such as regional integration, poverty reduction and improved livelihoods. This would also contribute to the region's achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals. Furthermore, through the identification of synergies and trade-offs, nexus planning can inform regional adaptation strategies for positively managing migration leading to sustainable outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid39035510, year = {2024}, author = {Arshad, Z and Madaleno, M and Lillebø, AI and Vieira, H}, title = {Digitalization's contribution towards sustainable development and climate change mitigation: An empirical evidence from EU economies.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {13}, pages = {e33451}, pmid = {39035510}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The current study aims to test the usage of econometric and machine learning approaches to study the relationship between methane (CH4), a hydrocarbon component of natural gas, as a proxy of carbon emission, GDP as economic growth, financial development (FIN), and medium and high technologies as a proxy of information technology (ICT) and human development (HDI). This study observes two extended moderating effect models of human development index and financial development via medium and high technologies on carbon emissions over the 15-year periods from 2007 to 2021 for the 27 EU economies. Results indicate that when considered solely, ICT, economic growth, and HDI improve environmental quality and contribute to climate change mitigation, reducing methane emissions, whereas financial development seems to damage environmental quality. However, the crossed effects of ICT with HDI, and that of ICT with FIN, were considered in estimations, with results pointing out that those favorably affect climate change mitigation. Jointly considering ICT, HDI, and financial development proves to have a synergistic effect in promoting environmental health than each element on its own. Green and yellow countries were also identified revealing the countries for which a reduction and increase, respectively, in the value of methane emissions is predicted after three years. In the case of the entire panel, the STR (linear regression tree) algorithm predicts an average growth in methane emissions of around 3.64 %. Important policy directions are drawn considering the results obtained.}, }
@article {pmid39035491, year = {2024}, author = {Arzo, S and Hong, M}, title = {Resilient green infrastructure: Navigating environmental resistance for sustainable development, social mobility in climate change policy.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {13}, pages = {e33524}, pmid = {39035491}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study explores the complex dynamics of environmental resistance, policy stability, skill development, and green initiatives in light of the growing worldwide concerns about climate change. COP27 and the G20 Summit show that as microcosm of the global discourse, provides a unique opportunity to study it. This research sought to thoroughly investigate, the links among green infrastructure, green technological innovation, policy stability, skill development, and their combined effects on social mobility and climate change (Case-1), it also discusses the global talk on climate change in COP27 and G20 (Case-2). In Case-1 data were analyzed through the use of structural equation modeling (SEM) by adopting a quantitative approach, and in Case-2 data were analyzed using theme analysis by applying a qualitative approach. Using a mixed-method research approach, the study surveyed 375 locals living close to the CPEC corridor quantitatively and interviewed ten important stakeholders, including elected officials, environmental activists, and community leaders, qualitatively. The survey highlighted the complex perspectives and experiences of citizens with green programs and environmental legislation in the CPEC zone. The study revealed the perceptions and experiences of residents regarding green initiatives and environmental policies within the CPEC region. Key stakeholders provided valuable insights into policy formulation and ongoing environmental sustainability efforts. The analysis unveiled intricate relationships between green infrastructure, technological innovation, policy stability, skill development, and their collective impact on climate change and social mobility. Notably, the study identified a critical research gap in understanding these dynamics within regions undergoing substantial economic development. Policy formulation and continuing environmental sustainability efforts were aided by key stakeholders' ideas. Green infrastructure, technological innovation, policy stability, skill development, and their overall influence on climate change and social mobility were all examined. Notably, the study found a critical research vacuum in understanding these processes inside rapidly developing economies. Policymakers, environmental groups, and communities managing the fine line between economic success and environmental responsibility will find great value in the findings. This study is unique because it examines issues on climate change from a local perspective in a region that is rapidly developing economically, it also adds value to the climate change challenges on the global level. This study presents a substantial theoretical contribution by examining the intricate interactions among environmental opposition, policy stability, skill development, and green initiatives within the CPEC against the backdrop of global climate change concerns.}, }
@article {pmid39034001, year = {2024}, author = {Souza, NF and Leal, JS and Tourinho, L and Farjalla, VF and Rocha, DSB and Vale, MM}, title = {Bioindicator aquatic insects at risk from climate change in a biodiversity hotspot.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174824}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174824}, pmid = {39034001}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change can affect biological assemblages by shifting their species' geographic range and changing species richness. Aquatic insects represent more than half of the freshwater animal species but have been neglected mainly in climate change assessments, particularly in tropical ecosystems. Among the aquatic insect taxa, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) are well-known bioindicators of environmental changes and encompass an essential metric for rivers and streams' biomonitoring. Here, we use ecological niche models to project the impact of climate change on the distribution range and richness of EPT in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We found EPT to be at high risk from future climate change, with Plecoptera as the order of greatest concern. We projected range contraction of ca. 90 % of the analyzed EPT genera, resulting in a reduction in the richness of EPT genera under future climatic conditions. We projected >50 % contraction in the distribution of 50 % of Plecoptera, ≈14 % of Trichoptera, and ≈7 % of Ephemeroptera genera. The remaining climatically suitable regions in the Atlantic Forest are concentrated in the high-altitude areas, which may act as climate refuges for EPT biodiversity in the future. The projected changes in EPT's distribution range and richness may impact biomonitoring programs conducted in tropical ecosystems. Restricting EPT's geographic distribution may undermine its potential as a bioindicator and influence the composition of EPT assemblages at reference sites, which may lead to shifting baseline conditions. We reinforce the importance of considering future climatic conditions when planning long-term biomonitoring and priority areas for conservation.}, }
@article {pmid39032755, year = {2024}, author = {Memarsadeghi, NP and Rowan, S and Sisco, AW and Tavakoly, AA}, title = {Enhancing resilience: Integrating future flood modeling and socio-economic analysis in the face of climate change impacts.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174893}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174893}, pmid = {39032755}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {As climate change intensifies, future floods will become more severe in some areas with geographic variation, necessitating that local and regional governments implement systems to provide information for climate adaptation, particularly for vulnerable populations. Therefore, we aimed to develop a methodology to identify areas that are at an increased risk from future floods and independently socially vulnerable. In this study, 100-year recurrence interval flood extents and depths were estimated using an ensemble of six independent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models for a past and future period under the highest-emissions climate scenario. The flood inundation results were related to social vulnerability for two selected study areas in the Mississippi River Basin. The range of flood extents and depths for both time periods were estimated, and differences were evaluated to determine the effects from climate change. To identify at-risk areas, the relationship between the spatial distribution of flood depths and vulnerability was then assessed. Finally, an analysis of the current and future damages on infrastructure from flooding on residential housing was performed to determine whether damages are correlated with higher vulnerability areas. Results show in every flooding scenario, flood extents and depths are increasing in the future compared with the past, ranging from an increase of 6 to 76 km[2] in extent across both locations. A statistically significant relationship between spatial clusters of flooding and of vulnerability was found. The infrastructure analysis found that residential structures in the most vulnerable census tracts are 6 to 59 times more likely to experience moderate damage compared with the least vulnerable tracts depending on scenario. Overall, a framework was established to holistically understand the hydrologic and socioeconomic impacts of climate change, and a methodology was developed to use for allocating resources at the local scale.}, }
@article {pmid39029763, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, F and Su, L and Du, Y and Li, H and Luo, J and Huang, X and Li, S and Zheng, F}, title = {No-interfered and visual evaluation of global warming impacts on phytoplankton-based copper bioavailability and then carbon sequestration.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174762}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174762}, pmid = {39029763}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global warming has an increasingly serious impact on the ecological environment. Copper bioavailability plays an important physiological role in revealing the mechanism of carbon cycle, photosynthesis, and respiration. Here we reported a multifunctional carbon quantum dots fluorescence probe for no-interfered and visual determination of phytoplankton-based intracellular Cu(II), glucose, and reactive oxygen species (ROS). Glucose and ROS were explored to reflect the change in primary biomass and carbon sequestration. H2O2 is acted as the standard material of ROS, and the fitting parameter for glucose and H2O2 concentrations was 0.42(r = 0.9972). Both glucose, ROS, and Cu[2+] detection have advantages of wide linear range (24.8-3.96 × 10[5] μg/L, 6-9.6 × 10[5] ng/L and 5-15 × 10[3] nmol/L, respectively), high precision (1.22 %, 6.38 %, and 7.37 %, respectively), and low detection limit (86.7 ng/L, 5.32 ng/L, and 0.367 nmol/L, respectively). Cu[2+] uptake was increased with the increasing of temperature, and the copper bioavailability in increasing order was Cu-PorPhyr > Cu-phthalate > Cu-EDTA. There were significant positive correlation between glucose and Cu[2+](r = 0.9943). Copper bioavailability would directly affect the carbon sequestration, i.e., when the concentration of intracellular copper increases by 1 mg/L, the content of intracellular glucose increases by 412 mg/L approximately, equally to 2.47 g/L of carbon dioxide was fixed.}, }
@article {pmid39029751, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, X and Liu, W and Feng, Q and Zeng, J}, title = {Multi-objective optimization of the spatial layout of green infrastructures with cost-effectiveness analysis under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174851}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174851}, pmid = {39029751}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Green infrastructure (GI) plays a significant role in alleviating urban flooding risk caused by urbanization and climate change. Due to space and financial limitations, the successful implementation of GI relies heavily on its layout design, and there is an increasing trend in using multi-objective optimization to support decision-making in GI planning. However, little is known about the hydrological effects of synchronously optimizing the size, location, and connection of GI under climate change. This study proposed a framework to optimize the size, location, and connection of typical GI facilities under climate change by combining the modified non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) and storm water management model (SWMM). The results showed that optimizing the size, location, and connection of GI facilities significantly increases the maximum reduction rate of runoff and peak flow by 13.4 %-24.5 % and 3.3 %-18 %, respectively, compared to optimizing only the size and location of GI. In the optimized results, most of the runoff from building roofs flew toward green space. Permeable pavement accounted for the highest average proportion of GI implementation area in optimal layouts, accounting for 29.8 %-54.2 % of road area. The average cost-effectiveness (C/E) values decreased from 16 %/10[5] Yuan under the historical period scenario to 14.3 %/10[5] Yuan and 14 %/10[5] Yuan under the two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. These results can help in understanding the optimization layout and cost-effectiveness of GI under climate change, and the proposed framework can enhance the adaptability of cities to climate change by providing specific cost-effective GI layout design.}, }
@article {pmid39029063, year = {2024}, author = {Obeagu, EI and Obeagu, GU}, title = {Adapting to the shifting landscape: Implications of climate change for malaria control: A review.}, journal = {Medicine}, volume = {103}, number = {29}, pages = {e39010}, doi = {10.1097/MD.0000000000039010}, pmid = {39029063}, issn = {1536-5964}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Malaria/prevention &amp; control/transmission/epidemiology ; Humans ; Animals ; Mosquito Control/methods ; Ecosystem ; Mosquito Vectors ; }, abstract = {Malaria, a global public health challenge, continues to affect millions of lives, particularly in regions where its transmission is endemic. The interplay between climate change and malaria dynamics has emerged as a critical concern, reshaping the landscape of this vector-borne disease. This review publication, titled "Adapting to the shifting landscape: Implications of climate change for malaria control," explores the multifaceted relationship between climate change and the control of malaria. The paper begins by dissecting the influence of climate change on malaria dynamics, including alterations in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic factors that impact the habitat and life cycle of malaria vectors. It delves into the evolving ecology and behavior of malaria vectors in response to changing climatic conditions, emphasizing the importance of understanding these adaptations. As a response to this shifting landscape, the review discusses adaptive strategies for malaria control, ranging from vector control measures to the utilization of climate data in early warning systems. Community engagement and education are highlighted as essential components of these strategies, recognizing the vital role of local communities in effective malaria control efforts. The paper also identifies future directions and research needs, underscoring the importance of staying ahead of the evolving climate-malaria relationship. This review underscores the urgency of adapting to the changing landscape of malaria transmission driven by climate change. It emphasizes the significance of proactively addressing climate-related challenges to enhance malaria control and protect the health and well-being of vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid39028532, year = {2024}, author = {Solano, JH and Moitinho, MA and Chiaramonte, JB and Bononi, L and Packer, AP and Melo, IS and Dini-Andreote, F and Tsai, SM and Taketani, RG}, title = {Organic matter decay and bacterial community succession in mangroves under simulated climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of microbiology : [publication of the Brazilian Society for Microbiology]}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39028532}, issn = {1678-4405}, support = {2013/03158-4//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; 2013/23470-2//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; 2015/23102-9//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; }, abstract = {Mangroves are coastal environments that provide resources for adjacent ecosystems due to their high productivity, organic matter decomposition, and carbon cycling by microbial communities in sediments. Since the industrial revolution, the increase of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) released due to fossil fuel burning led to many environmental abnormalities such as an increase in average temperature and ocean acidification. Based on the hypothesis that climate change modifies the microbial diversity associated with decaying organic matter in mangrove sediments, this study aimed to evaluate the microbial diversity under simulated climate change conditions during the litter decomposition process and the emission of GHG. Thus, microcosms containing organic matter from the three main plant species found in mangroves throughout the State of São Paulo, Brazil (Rhizophora mangle, Laguncularia racemosa, and Avicennia schaueriana) were incubated simulating climate changes (increase in temperature and pH). The decay rate was higher in the first seven days of incubation, but the differences between the simulated treatments were minor. GHG fluxes were higher in the first ten days and higher in samples under increased temperature. The variation in time resulted in substantial impacts on α-diversity and community composition, initially with a greater abundance of Gammaproteobacteria for all plant species despite the climate conditions variations. The PCoA analysis reveals the chronological sequence in β-diversity, indicating the increase of Deltaproteobacteria at the end of the process. The GHG emission varied in function of the organic matter source with an increase due to the elevated temperature, concurrent with the rise in the Deltaproteobacteria population. Thus, these results indicate that under the expected climate change scenario for the end of the century, the decomposition rate and GHG emissions will be potentially higher, leading to a harmful feedback loop of GHG production. This process can happen independently of an impact on the bacterial community structure due to these changes.}, }
@article {pmid39027508, year = {2024}, author = {Bojago, E and Tessema, A and Ngare, I}, title = {GIS-based spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends under climate change in different agro-ecological zones of Wolaita zone, south Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {13}, pages = {e33235}, pmid = {39027508}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of climatic conditions within a region is paramount for informed rural planning and decision-making processes, particularly in light of the prevailing challenges posed by climate change and variability. This study undertook an assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall trends across various agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within Wolaita, utilizing data collected from ten strategically positioned rain gauge stations. The detection of trends and their magnitudes was facilitated through the application of the Mann-Kendall (MKs) test in conjunction with Sen's slope estimator. Spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall were further analyzed utilizing ArcGIS10.8 environment and XLSTAT with R programming tools. The outcomes derived from ordinary kriging analyses unveiled notable disparities in the coefficient of variability (CV) for mean annual rainfall across distinct AEZs. Specifically, observations indicated that lowland regions exhibit relatively warmer climates and lower precipitation levels compared to their highland counterparts. Within the lowland AEZs, the majority of stations showcased statistically non-significant positive trends (p > 0.05) in annual rainfall, whereas approximately two-thirds of midland AEZ stations depicted statistically non-significant negative trends. Conversely, over half of the stations situated within highland AEZs displayed statistically non-significant positive trends in annual rainfall. During the rainy season, highland AEZs experienced higher precipitation levels, while the south-central midland areas received a moderate amount of rainfall. In contrast, the northeast and southeast lowland AEZs consistently received diminished rainfall across all seasons compared to other regions. This study underscores the necessity for the climate resilient development and implementation of spatiotemporally informed interventions through implementing region-specific adaptation strategies, such as water conservation measures and crop diversification, to mitigate the potential impact of changing rainfall patterns on agricultural productivity in Wolaita.}, }
@article {pmid39026963, year = {2024}, author = {Ran, W and Chen, J and Zhao, Y and Zhang, N and Luo, G and Zhao, Z and Song, Y}, title = {Global climate change-driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e70003}, pmid = {39026963}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5-8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 10[4] km[2], while the contraction area is 25.40 × 10[4] km[2]; in SSP1-2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 10[4] km[2], and the contraction area is 26.54 × 10[4] km[2]. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions.}, }
@article {pmid39026961, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, Z and Chang, N and Li, H and Wei, X and Shi, Y and Li, K and Li, J and Guo, C and Liu, Q}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Pulex simulans and Polygenis gwyni.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e11621}, pmid = {39026961}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Pulex simulans and Polygenis gwyni are vectors of many flea-borne diseases. They were widely recorded in the United States and Mexico between 1970 and 2000. Maximum entropy models were used to explore the habitats of both fleas under different climate scenarios to provide the scientific basis for the surveillance and control of flea-borne diseases. We screened climate variables by principal component analysis and Pearson's correlation test and evaluated model performance by ROC curve. ArcMap was used to visualize expressions. Under current climatic conditions, the medium and highly suitable areas for P. simulans are estimated to be 9.16 × 10[6] km[2] and 4.97 × 10[6] km[2], respectively. These regions are predominantly located in South America, along the Mediterranean coast of Europe, the southern part of the African continent, the Middle East, North China, and Australia. For P. gwyni, the medium and highly suitable areas under current climatic conditions are approximately 4.01 × 10[6] and 2.04 × 10[6] km[2], respectively, with the primary distribution in North China extending to the Himalayas, near the Equator in Africa, and in a few areas of Europe. Under future climate scenarios, in the SSP3-7.0 scenario for the years 2081-2100, the area of high suitability for P. simulans is projected to reach its maximum. Similarly, in the SSP2-4.5 scenario for 2061-2080, the area of high suitability for P. gwyni is expected to reach its maximum. Under global climate change, there is a large range in the potential distribution for both fleas, with an overall upward trend in the area of habitat under future climate scenarios. Governments should develop scientific prevention and control measures to prevent the invasive alien species flea.}, }
@article {pmid39026959, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, X and Li, Z and Zhang, L and Wang, Y and Liu, Y and Ma, Y}, title = {The optimized Maxent model reveals the pattern of distribution and changes in the suitable cultivation areas for Reaumuria songarica being driven by climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e70015}, pmid = {39026959}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Reaumuria songarica, a drought-resistant shrub, is widely distributed and plays a crucial role in the northern deserts of China. It is a key species for desert rehabilitation and afforestation efforts. Using the Maxent model to predict suitable planting areas for R. songarica is an important strategy for combating desertification. With 184 occurrence points of R. songarica and 13 environmental variables, the optimized Maxent model has identified the main limiting factors for its distribution. Distribution patterns and variation trends of R. songarica were projected for current and future climates (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) and different scenarios (ssp_126, ssp_370, and ssp_585). Results show that setting parameters to RM (regulation multiplier) = 4 and FC (feature combination) = LQHPT yields a model with good accuracy and high reliability. Currently, R. songarica is primarily suitable for desert control in eight provinces and autonomous regions, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The total suitable planting area is 148.80 × 10[4] km[2], representing 15.45% of China's land area. Precipitation (Precipitation of the wettest month, Precipitation of the warmest quarter, and Annual precipitation) and Ultraviolet-B seasonality are the primary environmental factors limiting the growth and distribution of R. songarica. Mean temperature of the warmest quarter is the primary factor driving changes in the distribution of suitable areas for R. songarica under future climate scenarios. In future climate scenarios, the suitable planting area of R. songarica will shrink, and the distribution center will shift towards higher latitude, potentially indicate further desertification. The area of highly suitable habitat has increased, while moderately and less suitable habitat areas have decreased. Increased precipitation within R. songarica's water tolerance range is favorable for its growth and reproduction. With changes in the suitable cultivation area for R. songarica, priority should be given to exploring and utilizing its germplasm resources. Introduction and cultivation can be conducted in expanding regions, while scientifically effective measures should be implemented to protect germplasm resources in contracting regions. The findings of this study provide a theoretical basis for addressing desertification resulting from climate change and offer practical insights for the development, utilization, introduction, and cultivation of R. songarica germplasm resources.}, }
@article {pmid39026127, year = {2024}, author = {Vlahov, D and Kurth, A}, title = {The "15-Minute City" Concept in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39026127}, issn = {1468-2869}, }
@article {pmid39025837, year = {2024}, author = {Hollenbeck, EC and Sax, DF}, title = {Experimental evidence of climate change extinction risk in Neotropical montane epiphytes.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {6045}, pmid = {39025837}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {GRF 1644760//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; IGERT DGE 0966060//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; NA//Brown | Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Brown University (IBES)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Tropical Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; Central America ; Altitude ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Climate change is conjectured to endanger tropical species, particularly in biodiverse montane regions, but accurate estimates of extinction risk are limited by a lack of empirical data demonstrating tropical species' sensitivity to climate. To fill this gap, studies could match high-quality distribution data with multi-year transplant experiments. Here, we conduct field surveys of epiphyte distributions on three mountains in Central America and perform reciprocal transplant experiments on one mountain across sites that varied in elevation, temperature and aridity. We find that most species are unable to survive outside of their narrow elevational distributions. Additionally, our findings suggest starkly different outcomes from temperature conditions expected by 2100 under different climate change scenarios. Under temperatures associated with low-emission scenarios, most tropical montane epiphyte species will survive, but under emission scenarios that are moderately high, 5-36% of our study species may go extinct and 10-55% of populations may be lost. Using a test of tropical species' climate tolerances from a large field experiment, paired with detailed species distribution data across multiple mountains, our work strengthens earlier conjecture about risks of wide-spread extinctions from climate change in tropical montane ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid39024911, year = {2024}, author = {Stipcich, P and Guala, I and La Manna, G and Merella, MM and Pansini, A and Vargiu, R and Fraschetti, S and Ceccherelli, G}, title = {How the seagrass Posidonia oceanica flowering will benefit from climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {206}, number = {}, pages = {116721}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.116721}, pmid = {39024911}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {This study aimed at identifying the importance of the thermal framework preceding Posidonia oceanica flowering induction (autumn before the flowering year) and anthesis (summer of the flowering year). In 53 locations of Sardinia (Italy), 35 vertical shoots were collected in 2001, 2020 and 2023 and analyzed through lepidochronology, detecting past flowering events from 1991 to 2022. Flowering probability was positively correlated with autumn SST range and MHWs, stressing the importance of the temperature in the year preceding the flowering. Summer SST mean and Marine Cold Spell duration (the latter emerged as a novel outcome) also positively influenced flowering. A negative association was highlighted with the summer SST range. As the occurrence of MHWs will increase, and the SST range will also increase in the autumn and decrease in the summer, P. oceanica might benefit through a higher flowering frequency, leading to a greater resilience to disturbances due to higher genetic variation.}, }
@article {pmid39024372, year = {2024}, author = {Baigaliyeva, M and Mount, N and Gosling, SN and McGowan, S}, title = {Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {e0305721}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0305721}, pmid = {39024372}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Lakes ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Asia, Central ; Hydrology ; Models, Theoretical ; Water ; }, abstract = {Endorheic lakes, lacking river outflows, are highly sensitive to environmental changes and human interventions. Central Asia (CA) has over 6000 lakes that have experienced substantial water level variability in the past century, yet causes of recent changes in many lakes remain unexplored. Modelling hydrological processes for CA lakes poses challenges in separating climatic change impacts from human management impacts due to limited data and long-term variability in hydrological regimes. This study developed a spatially lumped empirical model to investigate the effects of climate change and human water abstraction, using Shortandy Lake in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP) as a case study. Modelling results show a significant water volume decline from 231.7x106m3 in 1986 to 172.5x106m3 in 2016, primarily driven by anthropogenic water abstraction, accounting for 92% of the total volume deficit. The highest rates of water abstraction (greater than 25% of annual outflow) occurred from 1989 to 1993, coinciding with the driest period. Since 2013, the water volume has increased due to increased precipitation and, more importantly, reduced water abstraction. Despite limited observational data with which to calibrate the model, it performs well. Our analysis underscores the challenges in modelling lakes in data-sparse regions such as CA, and highlights the importance and benefits of developing lake water balance models for the region.}, }
@article {pmid39023725, year = {2024}, author = {Gervasio, MP and Soana, E and Gavioli, A and Vincenzi, F and Castaldelli, G}, title = {Contrasting effects of climate change on denitrification and nitrogen load reduction in the Po River (Northern Italy).}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39023725}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {An increase in water temperature is one of the main factors that can potentially modify biogeochemical dynamics in lowland rivers, such as the removal and recycling of nitrogen (N). This effect of climate change on N processing deserves attention, as it may have unexpected impacts on eutrophication in the coastal zones. Intact sediment cores were collected seasonally at the closing section of the Po River, the largest Italian river and one of the main N inputs to the Mediterranean Sea. Benthic oxygen fluxes, denitrification, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) rates were measured using laboratory dark incubations. Different temperature treatments were set up for each season based on historical data and future predictions. Higher water temperatures enhanced sediment oxygen demand and the extent of hypoxic conditions in the benthic compartment, favoring anaerobic metabolism. Indeed, warming water temperature stimulated nitrate (NO3[-]) reduction processes, although NO3[-] and organic matter availability were found to be the main controlling factors shaping the rates between seasons. Denitrification was the main process responsible for NO3[-] removal, mainly supported by NO3[-] diffusion from the water column into the sediments, and much more important than N recycling via DNRA. The predicted increase in the water temperature of the Po River due to climate change may exert an unexpected negative feedback on eutrophication by strongly controlling denitrification and contributing to partial buffering of N export in the lagoons and coastal areas, especially in spring.}, }
@article {pmid39021785, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, Y and Smith, P and Qin, Z}, title = {Sustainable bioenergy contributes to cost-effective climate change mitigation in China.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {7}, pages = {110232}, pmid = {39021785}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Bioenergy development is critical for achieving carbon neutrality. Biomass residues from agriculture, forest, and livestock manure provide substantial bioenergy resources in China, but their availability, climate, and economic impacts have not been evaluated systematically. Here we assess biomass sustainability, bioenergy potential, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reduction, and cost-effectiveness using an integrated data-modeling approach. Nationally, only 27% of biomass can be used for sustainable bioenergy production, but can contribute to significant climate change mitigation with optimized regional utilization. The annual GHG reduction can reach 1.0 Gt CO2e for bioenergy, or 1.4 Gt CO2e for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), which is comparable to total terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks in China. The abatement cost varies regionally but is lower than many other carbon removal technologies. Our findings reveal region-specific bioenergy pathways that contribute to carbon neutrality, and encourage future assessments to explore factors including technological advances and carbon markets.}, }
@article {pmid39021778, year = {2024}, author = {Acosta, D and Barrow, A and Mahamadou, IS and Assuncao, VS and Edwards, ME and McKune, SL}, title = {Climate change and health in the Sahel: a systematic review.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {231602}, pmid = {39021778}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {The Sahel region is projected to be highly impacted by the more frequent hazards associated with climate change, including increased temperature, drought and flooding. This systematic review examined the evidence for climate change-related health consequences in the Sahel. The databases used were Medline (PubMed), Embase (Ovid), Web of Science (Clarivate) and CABI Global Health. Hand searches were also conducted, which included directly engaging Sahelian researchers and hand-searching in the African Journals Online database. Of the 4153 studies found, 893 were identified as duplicates and the remaining 3260 studies were screened (title and abstract only) and then assessed for eligibility. A total of 81 studies were included in the systematic review. Most studies focused on vector-borne diseases, food security, nutrition and heat-related stress. Findings suggest that mosquito distribution will shift under different climate scenarios, but this relationship will not be linear with temperature, as there are other variables to consider. Food insecurity, stunting (chronic malnutrition) and heat-related mortality are likely to increase if no action is taken owing to the projected impact of climate change on environmental factors and agriculture. Seventy-one per cent of manuscripts (n = 58) had first authors from institutions in North America or Europe, of which 39.7% (n = 23) included co-authors from African institutions.}, }
@article {pmid39022649, year = {2023}, author = {Rose, KC and Bierwagen, B and Bridgham, SD and Carlisle, DM and Hawkins, CP and Poff, NL and Read, JS and Rohr, J and Saros, JE and Williamson, CE}, title = {Indicators of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {173}, number = {23}, pages = {1-20}, pmid = {39022649}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Freshwater ecosystems, including lakes, streams, and wetlands, are responsive to climate change and other natural and anthropogenic stresses. These ecosystems are frequently hydrologically and ecologically connected with one another and their surrounding landscapes, thereby integrating changes throughout their watersheds. The responses of any given freshwater ecosystem to climate change depend on the magnitude of climate forcing, interactions with other anthropogenic and natural changes, and the characteristics of the ecosystem itself. Therefore, the magnitude and manner in which freshwater ecosystems respond to climate change is difficult to predict a priori. We present a conceptual model to elucidate how freshwater ecosystems are altered by climate change. We identify eleven indicators that describe the response of freshwater ecosystems to climate change, discuss their potential value and limitations, and describe supporting measurements. Indicators are organized in three inter-related categories: hydrologic, water quality, and ecosystem structure and function. The indicators are supported by data sets with a wide range of temporal and spatial coverage, and they inform important scientific and management needs. Together, these indicators improve the understanding and management of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid39020395, year = {2024}, author = {Gontijo, JB and Paula, FS and Bieluczyk, W and França, AG and Navroski, D and Mandro, JA and Venturini, AM and Asselta, FO and Mendes, LW and Moura, JMS and Moreira, MZ and Nüsslein, K and Bohannan, BJM and Bodelier, PLE and Rodrigues, JLM and Tsai, SM}, title = {Methane-cycling microbial communities from Amazon floodplains and upland forests respond differently to simulated climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental microbiome}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {48}, pmid = {39020395}, issn = {2524-6372}, support = {2018/14974-0//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; 2014/50320-4//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; Finance Code 001//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; 311008/2016-0//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; }, abstract = {Seasonal floodplains in the Amazon basin are important sources of methane (CH4), while upland forests are known for their sink capacity. Climate change effects, including shifts in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures, may alter the functionality of soil microbial communities, leading to uncertain changes in CH4 cycling dynamics. To investigate the microbial feedback under climate change scenarios, we performed a microcosm experiment using soils from two floodplains (i.e., Amazonas and Tapajós rivers) and one upland forest. We employed a two-factorial experimental design comprising flooding (with non-flooded control) and temperature (at 27 °C and 30 °C, representing a 3 °C increase) as variables. We assessed prokaryotic community dynamics over 30 days using 16S rRNA gene sequencing and qPCR. These data were integrated with chemical properties, CH4 fluxes, and isotopic values and signatures. In the floodplains, temperature changes did not significantly affect the overall microbial composition and CH4 fluxes. CH4 emissions and uptake in response to flooding and non-flooding conditions, respectively, were observed in the floodplain soils. By contrast, in the upland forest, the higher temperature caused a sink-to-source shift under flooding conditions and reduced CH4 sink capability under dry conditions. The upland soil microbial communities also changed in response to increased temperature, with a higher percentage of specialist microbes observed. Floodplains showed higher total and relative abundances of methanogenic and methanotrophic microbes compared to forest soils. Isotopic data from some flooded samples from the Amazonas river floodplain indicated CH4 oxidation metabolism. This floodplain also showed a high relative abundance of aerobic and anaerobic CH4 oxidizing Bacteria and Archaea. Taken together, our data indicate that CH4 cycle dynamics and microbial communities in Amazonian floodplain and upland forest soils may respond differently to climate change effects. We also highlight the potential role of CH4 oxidation pathways in mitigating CH4 emissions in Amazonian floodplains.}, }
@article {pmid39019767, year = {2024}, author = {Kwon, Y and Jin, Y and Lee, JH and Sun, C and Ryu, CM}, title = {Rice rhizobiome engineering for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2024.06.006}, pmid = {39019767}, issn = {1878-4372}, abstract = {The year 2023 was the warmest year since 1850. Greenhouse gases, including CO2 and methane, played a significant role in increasing global warming. Among these gases, methane has a 25-fold greater impact on global warming than CO2. Methane is emitted during rice cultivation by a group of rice rhizosphere microbes, termed methanogens, in low oxygen (hypoxic) conditions. To reduce methane emissions, it is crucial to decrease the methane production capacity of methanogens through water and fertilizer management, breeding of new rice cultivars, regulating root exudation, and manipulating rhizosphere microbiota. In this opinion article we review the recent developments in hypoxia ecology and methane emission mitigation and propose potential solutions based on the manipulation of microbiota and methanogens for the mitigation of methane emissions.}, }
@article {pmid39019218, year = {2024}, author = {Sparling, TM and Offner, C and Deeney, M and Denton, P and Bash, K and Juel, R and Moore, S and Kadiyala, S}, title = {Intersections of climate change with food systems, nutrition, and health: an overview and evidence map.}, journal = {Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {100274}, doi = {10.1016/j.advnut.2024.100274}, pmid = {39019218}, issn = {2156-5376}, abstract = {Scientific research linking climate change to food systems, nutrition and nutrition-related health (FSNH) has proliferated, showing bidirectional and compounding dependencies that create cascading risks for human and planetary health. Within this proliferation, it is unclear which evidence to prioritise for action, and which research gaps, if filled, would catalyse most impact. We systematically searched for synthesis literature (i.e. reviews) related to FSNH, published after January 1, 2018. We screened and extracted characteristics of these reviews and mapped them in an interactive Evidence and Gap Map (EGM), supplemented by expert consultation. 844 synthesis reports met inclusion criteria (from 2,739 records) and were included in the EGM. The largest clusters of reports were those describing climate impacts on crop and animal source food (ASF) production, and emissions from such (86%). Comparatively few reports assessed climate change impacts on nutrition-related health, or food manufacture, processing, storage, and transportation. Reports focused on strategies of climate adaptation (40%), mitigation (29%), both (19%) or none (12%). Only one quarter of reports critically evaluated equity (25%), and fewer reports suggested that changes to equity and equitable practices would alter climate-FSNH dynamics (6%). The expert consultation mirrored the results of the EGM, and contextualised findings further. This novel map describes a wide research landscape linking climate change to FSNH. We identified four key research gaps, including 1) Research on whole food systems or post-harvest elements 2) Research evaluating relationships between climate change and nutrition-related health outcomes, especially among vulnerable populations; 3) Promising methods (and additional data required) that can a) identify inflection points or levers for intervention, b) incorporate complex dynamics and characterize trade-offs, c) be understood and applied in context-specific, localised ways for decision-making; and 4) Research undertaken through interdisciplinary collaborations that enables producing and translating evidence to action, especially those that inherently consider co-production and fairness.}, }
@article {pmid39019140, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, X and Zheng, R and Wan, Z and Zhang, Z}, title = {Differences of soil carbon pools and crop growth across different typical agricultural fields in China: the role of geochemistry and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {119623}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119623}, pmid = {39019140}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Carbon storage and the aboveground biomass of farmland provide practical significance for understanding global changes and ensuring food production and quality. Based on soil carbon storage, aboveground biomass, climate, geochemistry, and other data from 19 farmland ecological stations in China, we analyzed the distribution characteristics of farmland carbon storage in topsoil and aboveground biomass. We notably revealed the response direction and degree of climate and geochemical factors to farmland carbon storage in topsoil and aboveground biomass. The results indicated that the average carbon stocks of farmland in different regions ranged from 0.28 to 7.91 kg m[-2], the average fresh weight of the aboveground biomass (FAB) ranged from 1370.64 to 5997.28 g m[-2], and the average dry weight of the aboveground biomass (DAB) ranged from 119.95 to 852.35 g m[-2]. The least angle regression (LARS) and the best subsection selection regression (BSS) showed that evapotranspiration and extreme low temperatures were significant climatic factors affecting carbon sequestration and aboveground biomass on long-time scales. The linear mixed-effects model (LMM) further showed that AN and AP had significant long-term effects on carbon sequestration and aboveground biomass (p<0.05), with AN having the highest contribution to SOC%, FAB, and DAB. The structural equation model (SEM) showed that carbon sequestration and aboveground biomass in agricultural fields were significantly positively correlated (p<0.05). Moreover, the climate had a less direct contribution to carbon sequestration and above-ground biomass compared to geochemistry (PCc<0.1<PCG), and its effect was more indirect. When the geochemical variables were removed, the correlation between climate and carbon and aboveground biomass variables decreased significantly. We conclude that it is possible that extremes climate and geochemistry control carbon sequestration and above-ground biomass in long-term cropland through interactions in the context of global change, which provides new insights into the evolution of soil organic carbon in long-term cropland and the scientific formulation of policies to increase food production and preserve quality.}, }
@article {pmid39018839, year = {2024}, author = {Vangi, E and Dalmonech, D and Cioccolo, E and Marano, G and Bianchini, L and Puchi, PF and Grieco, E and Cescatti, A and Colantoni, A and Chirici, G and Collalti, A}, title = {Stand age diversity (and more than climate change) affects forests' resilience and stability, although unevenly.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {121822}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121822}, pmid = {39018839}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Stand age significantly influences the functioning of forest ecosystems by shaping structural and physiological plant traits, affecting water and carbon budgets. Forest age distribution is determined by the interplay of tree mortality and regeneration, influenced by both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Unfortunately, human-driven alteration of tree age distribution presents an underexplored avenue for enhancing forest stability and resilience. In our study, we investigated how age impacts the stability and resilience of the forest carbon budget under both current and future climate conditions. We employed a state-of-the-science biogeochemical, biophysical, validated process-based model on historically managed forest stands, projecting their future as undisturbed systems, i.e., left at their natural evolution with no management interventions (i.e., forests are left to develop undisturbed). Such a model, forced by climate data from five Earth System Models under four representative climate scenarios and one baseline scenario to disentangle the effect of climate change, spanned several age classes as representative of the current European forests' context, for each stand. Our findings indicate that Net Primary Production (NPP) peaks in the young and middle-aged classes (16- to 50-year-old), aligning with longstanding ecological theories, regardless of the climate scenario. Under climate change, the beech forest exhibited an increase in NPP and maintained stability across all age classes, while resilience remained constant with rising atmospheric CO2 and temperatures. However, NPP declined under climate change scenarios for the Norway spruce and Scots pine sites. In these coniferous forests, stability and resilience were more influenced. These results underscore the necessity of accounting for age class diversity -lacking in most, if not all, the current Global Vegetation Models - for reliable and robust assessments of the impacts of climate change on future forests' stability and resilience capacity. We, therefore, advocate for customized management strategies that enhance the adaptability of forests to changing climatic conditions, taking into account the diverse responses of different species and age groups to climate.}, }
@article {pmid39017872, year = {2024}, author = {Szalińska, E and Jarosińska, E and Orlińska-Woźniak, P and Jakusik, E and Warzecha, W and Ogar, W and Wilk, P}, title = {Total nitrogen and phosphorus loads in surface runoff from urban land use (city of Lublin) under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {39017872}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {IDUB 501.696.7996/L-34//Akademia G&#xf3;rniczo-Hutnicza im. Stanislawa Staszica/ ; }, abstract = {An expansion of impervious surfaces in urban areas leads to increases of nutrient loads discharged with the surface runoff to receivers. A study of a different density of urban development impact on total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) loads from the city of Lublin (eastern Poland) with the use of the SWAT (Soil &amp; Water Assessment Tool) model was performed. To distinguish between areas with high and low density of urban development (UHD and ULD), a special analysis of hydrological parameters has been proposed. Moreover, to investigate the impact of climate change, four variant scenarios were taken into account, combining the RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 forecasts and the adopted time horizons (2026-2035 and 2046-2055). The results showed a much higher share of TN and TP from UHD compared to ULD (86%-32 022 kg/year and 89%-2574 kg/year, respectively). In addition, the variant scenarios showed that the forecasted increase in precipitation and temperature will result in increased loads of nutrients from UHD and ULD up to 30%. Furthermore, the current increase of inhabitant number, due to the Ukrainian war migration and the common tendency to convert agricultural land to residential areas, could contribute to further expansion of UHD and ULD areas and an additional increase of nutrient loads.}, }
@article {pmid39017762, year = {2024}, author = {Abouelhassan, EM and GadAllah, S and Kamel, MS and Kamal, M and Elsayed, HH and Sallam, NH and Okely, M}, title = {Molecular identification and morphological variations of Amblyomma lepidum imported to Egypt, with notes about its potential distribution under climate change.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {123}, number = {7}, pages = {276}, pmid = {39017762}, issn = {1432-1955}, mesh = {Animals ; *Camelus/parasitology ; Egypt ; *Tick Infestations/parasitology/veterinary ; Male ; *Phylogeny ; *Climate Change ; *Amblyomma/anatomy &amp; histology/genetics/physiology/classification/growth &amp; development ; Female ; RNA, Ribosomal, 16S/genetics ; Sudan ; }, abstract = {The tick Amblyomma lepidum is an ectoparasite of veterinary importance due to its role in transmitting livestock diseases in Africa, including heartwater. This study was conducted in 2023 to monitor Amblyomma spp. infestation in dromedary camels imported from Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan to Egypt. This study inspected 200 camels at the Giza governorate's camel market that had been imported from Somalia, 200 from Ethiopia, and 200 from Sudan for tick infestation. Specimens were identified using morphological characteristics and phylogenetic analyses of the 12S and 16S rRNA genes. Clusters were calculated using an unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic averages (UPGMA) dendrogram to group the specimens according to their morphometric characteristics. The morphometric analysis compared the body shape of ticks collected from different countries by analyzing dorsal features. Principal component analysis (PCA) and canonical variate analysis (CVA) were performed to obtain body shape variation among specimens from different countries. Results indicated that camels were infested by 57 males Amblyomma lepidum, and no female specimens were observed; among these specimens, one may have a morphological abnormality. The results suggest that A. lepidum specimens collected from camels imported to Egypt from African countries exhibit locally adapted morphology with variations among specimens, particularly variations in body size. This adaptation suggests minimal potential for genetic divergence. Ecological niche modeling was used to predict the areas in Africa with suitable climates for A. lepidum. The study confirmed that East African countries might have the most favorable climatic conditions for A. lepidum to thrive. Interestingly, the amount of rain during the wettest quarter (Bio16) had the strongest influence on the tick's potential distribution, with suitability decreasing sharply as rainfall increased. Future predictions indicate that the climatic habitat suitability for A. lepidum will decrease under changing climate conditions. However, historical, current, and future predictions indicate no suitable climatic habitats for A. lepidum in Egypt. These findings demand continuous surveillance of A. lepidum in camel populations and the development of targeted strategies to manage tick infestations and prevent the spread of heartwater disease.}, }
@article {pmid39017546, year = {2023}, author = {Hassol, SJ}, title = {Changing the Language of Climate Change: Choosing words and stories that speak to people's priorities can build the will needed to implement climate solutions.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {328}, number = {2}, pages = {64}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0223-64}, pmid = {39017546}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Language ; }, }
@article {pmid39020583, year = {2021}, author = {Jackson, RJ and Frumkin, H}, title = {Needed: Climate Change and Health Institute.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {324}, number = {4}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0421-9}, pmid = {39020583}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39017520, year = {2024}, author = {Oreskes, N}, title = {Gaslighting by the Gas Industry: A fossil-fuel executive blames the public for climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {331}, number = {1}, pages = {96}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican072024-4879OYKZNBesOI8GL6por6}, pmid = {39017520}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39017440, year = {2024}, author = {Jiménez, G}, title = {Whirlwind Conversation: Hurricanes boost social chatter about climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {330}, number = {3}, pages = {16}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0324-16b}, pmid = {39017440}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39017402, year = {2023}, author = {Cosier, S}, title = {Zeroing In: Supercomputer network could predict climate change effects down to the neighborhood.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {329}, number = {4}, pages = {16}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican1123-16b}, pmid = {39017402}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39017382, year = {2024}, author = {Ritchie, H}, title = {What We Learned from Acid Rain: By working together, the nations of the world can solve climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {330}, number = {1}, pages = {75}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0124-75}, pmid = {39017382}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39017373, year = {2024}, author = {Youmshajekian, L}, title = {Quick Hits: Deciphering a scorched scroll from ancient Herculaneum, unlikely flavors in climate-change-affected wine, an undiscovered ore found in China, and more in this month's Quick Hits.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {330}, number = {1}, pages = {19}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0124-19b}, pmid = {39017373}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39017260, year = {2023}, author = {Fox, D}, title = {A Stratospheric Gamble: The effects of global warming have gotten so bad, so fast that some scientists say it's time to start engineering the sky.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {329}, number = {3}, pages = {30}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican1023-30}, pmid = {39017260}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39016072, year = {2024}, author = {Matich, P and Plumlee, JD and Bubley, W and Curtis, TH and Drymon, JM and Mullins, LL and Shipley, ON and TinHan, TC and Fisher, MR}, title = {Long-term effects of climate change on juvenile bull shark migratory patterns.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.14140}, pmid = {39016072}, issn = {1365-2656}, abstract = {Seasonal variability in environmental conditions is a strong determinant of animal migrations, but warming temperatures associated with climate change are anticipated to alter this phenomenon with unknown consequences. We used a 40-year fishery-independent survey to assess how a changing climate has altered the migration timing, duration and first-year survival of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas). From 1982 to 2021, estuaries in the western Gulf of Mexico (Texas) experienced a mean increase of 1.55°C in autumn water temperatures, and delays in autumn cold fronts by ca. 0.5 days per year. Bull shark migrations in more northern estuaries concomitantly changed, with departures 25-36 days later in 2021 than in 1982. Later, migrations resulted in reduced overwintering durations by up to 81 days, and the relative abundance of post-overwintering age 0-1 sharks increased by >50% during the 40-year study period. Yet, reductions in prey availability were the most influential factor delaying migrations. Juvenile sharks remained in natal estuaries longer when prey were less abundant. Long-term declines in prey reportedly occurred due to reduced spawning success associated with climate change based on published reports. Consequently, warming waters likely enabled and indirectly caused the observed changes in shark migratory behaviour. As water temperatures continue to rise, bull sharks in the north-western Gulf of Mexico could forgo their winter migrations in the next 50-100 years based on current trends and physiological limits, thereby altering their ecological roles in estuarine ecosystems and recruitment into the adult population. It is unclear if estuarine food webs will be able to support changing residency patterns as climate change affects the spawning success of forage species. We expect these trends are not unique to the western Gulf of Mexico or bull sharks, and migratory patterns of predators in subtropical latitudes are similarly changing at a global scale.}, }
@article {pmid39016015, year = {2024}, author = {Jones, EM and Venkatachalam, AM and Ifejika, NL}, title = {Weathering the storm: Effect of climate change on acute stroke care and stroke rehabilitation.}, journal = {PM &amp; R : the journal of injury, function, and rehabilitation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/pmrj.13218}, pmid = {39016015}, issn = {1934-1563}, support = {4//Texas Health Resources Clinical Scholars Program/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has deleterious effects on stroke recovery, disproportionately affecting populations with increased stroke incidence. These effects start prior to the acute care hospitalization, precipitated by environmental etiologies and are sustained throughout the life course of stroke survivors. Health care practitioners play a critical role in identifying these concerns and mitigating their impact through effective strategies at the patient level, interventions at the community level, and advocacy at the state and federal level. As the experts on improvement in function, quality of life, and the mitigation of disability, physiatrists have the opportunity to lead efforts in this space for stroke survivors and their caregivers.}, }
@article {pmid39015345, year = {2024}, author = {Odebiri, O and Mutanga, O and Odindi, J and Slotow, R and Mafongoya, P and Lottering, R and Naicker, R and Matongera, TN and Mngadi, M}, title = {Mapping Sub-surface Distribution of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in South Africa's Arid and Semi-Arid Landscapes: Implications for Land Management and Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {Geoderma regional}, volume = {37}, number = {}, pages = {e00817}, pmid = {39015345}, issn = {2352-0094}, abstract = {Soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are critical for land management strategies and climate change mitigation. However, understanding SOC distribution in South Africa's arid and semi-arid regions remains a challenge due to data limitations, and the complex spatial and sub-surface variability in SOC stocks driven by desertification and land degradation. Thus, to support soil and land-use management practices as well as advance climate change mitigation efforts, there is an urgent need to provide more precise SOC stock estimates within South Africa's arid and semi-arid regions. Hence, this study adopted remote-sensing approaches to determine the spatial sub-surface distribution of SOC stocks and the influence of environmental co-variates at four soil depths (i.e., 0-30 cm, 30-60 cm, 60-100 cm, and 100-200 cm). Using two regression-based algorithms, i.e., Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Random Forest (RF), the study found the former (RMSE values ranging from 7.12 t/ha to 29.55 t/ha) to be a superior predictor of SOC in comparison to the latter (RMSE values ranging from 7.36 t/ha to 31.10 t/ha). Nonetheless, both models achieved satisfactory accuracy (R[2] ≥ 0.52) for regional-scale SOC predictions at the studied soil depths. Thereafter, using a variable importance analysis, the study demonstrated the influence of climatic variables like rainfall and temperature on SOC stocks at different depths. Furthermore, the study revealed significant spatial variability in SOC stocks, and an increase in SOC stocks with soil depth. Overall, these findings enhance the understanding of SOC dynamics in South Africa's arid and semi-arid landscapes and emphasizes the importance of considering site specific topo-climatic characteristics for sustainable land management and climate change mitigation. Furthermore, the study offers valuable insights into sub-surface SOC distribution, crucial for informing carbon sequestration strategies, guiding land management practices, and informing environmental policies within arid and semi-arid environments.}, }
@article {pmid39014380, year = {2024}, author = {Fekih-Romdhane, F and Malaeb, D and Yakın, E and Sakr, F and Dabbous, M and El Khatib, S and Obeid, S and Hallit, S}, title = {Translation and validation to the Arabic language version of the climate change anxiety scale (CCAS).}, journal = {BMC psychiatry}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {507}, pmid = {39014380}, issn = {1471-244X}, mesh = {Humans ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; *Anxiety/psychology/diagnosis ; Lebanon ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Middle Aged ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Psychometrics ; Psychiatric Status Rating Scales/standards ; Translations ; Arabs/psychology ; Young Adult ; Translating ; Aged ; Language ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Arab world is one of the global regions the most directly concerned by, and suffering from climate change's adverse consequences. As such, there appears to be a strong need for an understanding of how Arab people may emotionally respond to climate change. Providing valid and reliable measures of climate change anxiety (CCA) can help gain a clear overview of the situation in Arab countries, and allow to intervene timely and effectively to mitigate any adverse effects on Arab people's mental health. To this end, the present study sought to validate the Arabic language version of the Climate Change Anxiety Scale (CCAS) in a sample of native Arabic-speaking adults from the general population of Lebanon.<br><br>METHODS: This study adopted a cross-sectional approach and enrolled 763 adults between July and September 2023.<br><br>RESULTS: A confirmatory analysis of the one-factor model showed poor fit indices as follows: CFI&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.90, GFI&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.83, SRMR&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.048 and RMSEA 0.131 [90% CI 0.123, 0.138). The two-factor model showed a satisfactory fit with a high CFI of and a GFI of 0.91 and a SRMR of 0.04 and RMSEA of 0.05 [90% CI 0.04, 0.06]. Both McDonald's omega and Cronbach alpha values were high for the overall CCAS score (&#x3b1;&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.96 and &#x3c9;&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.96) in the whole sample. Configural, metric and scalar invariance across gender was demonstrated. No significant difference was found between males and females in terms of total CCAS scores (24.53&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;10.59 vs. 26.03&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;11.17, t(761) = -1.82, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;.069). Higher CCA, functional impairment and cognitive impairment scores were significantly associated with higher depression, anxiety and stress.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The reliability and validity of the CCAS in its Arabic version were proven. The availability of this self-report measure could offer a chance to assess CCA among Adults speaking Arabic, and to spread its future use for screening and research purposes.}, }
@article {pmid39014072, year = {2024}, author = {Braga, A and Laurini, M}, title = {Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects across Brazilian biomes.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {16414}, pmid = {39014072}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {Finance Code 01//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; 310646/2021-9//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 2023/02538-0//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; }, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; Seasons ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {We present a methodology designed to study the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. Our approach involves decomposing the observed changes in temperature patterns into multiple trend, cycle, and seasonal components within a spatio-temporal model. We apply this method to test the hypothesis of a global long-term temperature trend against multiple trends in distinct biomes. Applying this methodology, we delve into the examination of heterogeneity of climate change in Brazil-a country characterized by a spectrum of climate zones. The findings challenge the notion of a global trend, revealing the presence of distinct trends in warming effects, and more accelerated trends for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, indicating a composition between global warming and deforestation in determining changes in permanent temperature patterns.}, }
@article {pmid39014061, year = {2024}, author = {Guo, Y and Zhang, S and Ren, L and Tian, X and Tang, S and Xian, Y and Wu, X and Zhang, Z}, title = {Prediction of Chinese suitable habitats of Panax notoginseng under climate change based on MaxEnt and chemometric methods.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {16434}, pmid = {39014061}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {No.82274090//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; No.2024003//Open research project of China Meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resource to Economy/ ; }, mesh = {*Panax notoginseng/growth &amp; development/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; China ; Saponins/analysis ; Ginsenosides/analysis ; }, abstract = {Notoginseng saponin R1; ginsenosides Rg1, Re, Rb1, and Rd; the sum of the five saponins; and underground-part fresh weight (UPFW) of single plants were used as quality evaluation indices for Panax notoginseng (Burk.) F. H. Chen (P. notoginseng). Comprehensive evaluation of P. notoginseng samples from 30 production areas was performed using that MaxEnt model. Spatial pattern changes in suitable P. notoginseng habitats were predicted for current and future periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) using SSP126 and SSP585 models. The results revealed that temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were important environmental variables. Suitable habitats were located mainly in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan Provinces. The distribution core of P. notoginseng is predicted to shift southeast in the future. The saponin content decreased from the southeast to the northwest of Yunnan Province, which was contrary to the UPFW trend. This study provides the necessary information for the protection and sustainable utilization of P. notoginseng resources, and a theoretical reference for its application in the quality evaluation of Chinese medicinal products.}, }
@article {pmid39011752, year = {2024}, author = {Rehman, SU and Watson, E and Noble, LM}, title = {EACH: International Association for Communication in Healthcare statement on climate change, health and vulnerability: enhancing resilience through social and behavior change communication.}, journal = {Journal of communication in healthcare}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {197-200}, doi = {10.1080/17538068.2024.2357947}, pmid = {39011752}, issn = {1753-8076}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Resilience, Psychological ; Vulnerable Populations/psychology ; Communication ; }, }
@article {pmid39009635, year = {2024}, author = {Kleinteich, J and Frassl, MA and Schulz, M and Fischer, H}, title = {Climate change triggered planktonic cyanobacterial blooms in a regulated temperate river.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {16298}, pmid = {39009635}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Rivers/microbiology ; *Climate Change ; *Cyanobacteria/growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Phytoplankton/growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Chlorophyll A/analysis ; Chlorophyll/analysis ; Harmful Algal Bloom ; Plankton/growth &amp; development ; Eutrophication ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {Harmful algae blooms are a rare phenomenon in rivers but seem to increase with climate change and river regulation. To understand the controlling factors of cyanobacteria blooms that occurred between 2017 and 2020 over long stretches (> 250 km) of the regulated Moselle River in Western Europe, we measured physico-chemical and biological variables and compared those with a long-term dataset (1997-2016). Cyanobacteria (Microcystis) dominated the phytoplankton community in the late summers of 2017-2020 (cyano-period) with up to 110 µg Chlorophyll-a/L, but had not been observed in the river in the previous 20 years. From June to September, the average discharge in the Moselle was reduced to 69-76% and water temperature was 0.9-1.8 °C higher compared to the reference period. Nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silica (Si) declined since 1997, albeit total nutrient concentrations remained above limiting conditions in the study period. Cyanobacterial blooms correlated best with low discharge, high water temperature and low nitrate. We conclude that the recent cyanobacteria blooms have been caused by dry and warm weather resulting in low flow conditions and warm water temperature in the regulated Moselle. Under current climate projections, the Moselle may serve as an example for the future of regulated temperate rivers.}, }
@article {pmid39009588, year = {2024}, author = {Meyer, AS and Pigot, AL and Merow, C and Kaschner, K and Garilao, C and Kesner-Reyes, K and Trisos, CH}, title = {Temporal dynamics of climate change exposure and opportunities for global marine biodiversity.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {5836}, pmid = {39009588}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Temperature ; Animals ; *Aquatic Organisms/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Climate change is exposing marine species to unsuitable temperatures while also creating new thermally suitable habitats of varying persistence. However, understanding how these different dynamics will unfold over time remains limited. We use yearly sea surface temperature projections to estimate temporal dynamics of thermal exposure (when temperature exceeds realised species' thermal limits) and opportunity (when temperature at a previously unsuitable site becomes suitable) for 21,696 marine species globally until 2100. Thermal opportunities are projected to arise earlier and accumulate gradually, especially in temperate and polar regions. Thermal exposure increases later and occurs more abruptly, mainly in the tropics. Assemblages tend to show either high exposure or high opportunity, but seldom both. Strong emissions reductions reduce exposure around 100-fold whereas reductions in opportunities are halved. Globally, opportunities are projected to emerge faster than exposure until mid-century when exposure increases more rapidly under a high emissions scenario. Moreover, across emissions and dispersal scenarios, 76%-97% of opportunities are projected to persist until 2100. These results indicate thermal opportunities could be a major source of marine biodiversity change, especially in the near- and mid-term. Our work provides a framework for predicting where and when thermal changes will occur to guide monitoring efforts.}, }
@article {pmid39009406, year = {2024}, author = {Domingo, KN and Gabaldon, KL and Hussari, MN and Yap, JM and Valmadrid, LC and Robinson, K and Leibel, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on paediatric respiratory health: pollutants and aeroallergens.}, journal = {European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society}, volume = {33}, number = {172}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1183/16000617.0249-2023}, pmid = {39009406}, issn = {1600-0617}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Allergens/adverse effects/immunology ; *Air Pollutants/adverse effects/immunology ; Child ; *Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Risk Factors ; Risk Assessment ; Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; Inhalation Exposure/adverse effects ; Child, Preschool ; Age Factors ; Adolescent ; Infant ; Animals ; Infant, Newborn ; Child Health ; }, abstract = {Paediatric populations are particularly vulnerable to respiratory diseases caused and exacerbated by aeroallergens, pollutants and infectious agents. Worsening climate change is expected to increase the prevalence of pollutants and aeroallergens while amplifying disease severity and causing disproportionate effects in under-resourced areas. The purpose of this narrative review is to summarise the role of anthropogenic climate change in the literature examining the future impact of aeroallergens, pollutants and infectious agents on paediatric respiratory diseases with a focus on equitable disease mitigation. The aeroallergens selected for discussion include pollen, dust mites and mould as these are prevalent triggers of paediatric asthma worldwide. Human rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus are key viruses interacting with climate change and pollution and are primary causal agents of viral respiratory disease. Within this review, we present the propensity for aeroallergens, climate change and pollution to synergistically exacerbate paediatric respiratory disease and outline measures that can ameliorate the expected increase in morbidity and severity of disease through a health equity lens. We support shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy worldwide, across sectors, as a primary means of reducing increases in morbidity.}, }
@article {pmid39009235, year = {2024}, author = {Gizaw, Z and Salubi, E and Pietroniro, A and Schuster-Wallace, CJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change on water-related mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions: A systematic review of literature and meta-analysis.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {107324}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107324}, pmid = {39009235}, issn = {1873-6254}, abstract = {Mosquito-borne diseases are a known tropical phenomenon. This review was conducted to assesses the mechanisms through which climate change impacts mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions. Articles were searched from PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Embase databases. Identification criteria were scope (climate change and mosquito-borne diseases), region (temperate), article type (peer-reviewed), publication language (English), and publication years (since 2015). The WWH (who, what, how) framework was applied to develop the research question and thematic analyses identified the mechanisms through which climate change affects mosquito-borne diseases. While temperature ranges for disease transmission vary per mosquito species, all are viable for temperate regions, particularly given projected temperature increases. Zika, chikungunya, and dengue transmission occurs between 18 - 34°C (peak at 26 - 29°C). West Nile virus establishment occurs at monthly average temperatures between 14 - 34.3°C (peak at 23.7 - 25°C). Malaria establishment occurs when the consecutive average daily temperatures are above 16°C until the sum is above 210°C. The identified mechanisms through which climate change affects the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions include: changes in the development of vectors and pathogens; changes in mosquito habitats; extended transmission seasons; changes in geographic spread; changes in abundance and behaviours of hosts; reduced abundance of mosquito predators; interruptions to control operations; and influence on other non-climate factors. Process and stochastic approaches as well as dynamic and spatial models exist to predict mosquito population dynamics, disease transmission, and climate favorability. Future projections based on the observed relations between climate factors and mosquito-borne diseases suggest that mosquito-borne disease expansion is likely to occur in temperate regions due to climate change. While West Nile virus is already established in some temperate regions, Zika, dengue, chikungunya, and malaria are also likely to become established over time. Moving forward, more research is required to model future risks by incorporating climate, environmental, sociodemographic, and mosquito-related factors under changing climates.}, }
@article {pmid39017227, year = {2023}, author = {Parshley, L}, title = {Blame Game: How scientists got confident attributing disastrous weather to global warming.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {328}, number = {6}, pages = {44}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0623-44}, pmid = {39017227}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {*Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; *Weather ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid39017168, year = {2023}, author = {Oreskes, N}, title = {Social Security and Science: Attacks on the program rest on false "facts" similar to ones used against climate change action.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {328}, number = {5}, pages = {86}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0523-86}, pmid = {39017168}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39017524, year = {2023}, author = {Helmuth, L}, title = {Mates and Strangers: Love in the brain, how dreams predict disease and better words for climate change in this month's issue of Scientific American.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {328}, number = {2}, pages = {4}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0223-4}, pmid = {39017524}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Brain/physiology ; Love ; }, }
@article {pmid39017091, year = {2023}, author = {Haaland, D}, title = {Satellites Can Help Us Fight Climate Change: Landsat data will shape the Biden administration's climate change plans.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {328}, number = {1}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0123-9}, pmid = {39017091}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39016934, year = {2022}, author = {Montañez, A and Thompson, A}, title = {The Cost of Climate Change: How each nation's greenhouse gas emissions have cost others.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {327}, number = {5}, pages = {88}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican1122-88}, pmid = {39016934}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39016848, year = {2022}, author = {Goodkin, N and Pullen, J}, title = {Let Oceans Breathe: Marine oxygen levels are the next great casualty of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {326}, number = {4}, pages = {11}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0422-11}, pmid = {39016848}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39016663, year = {2022}, author = {Thompson, A}, title = {Generational Climate Change: Young people will suffer the most from warming temperatures.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {326}, number = {2}, pages = {76}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0222-76}, pmid = {39016663}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid39008671, year = {2024}, author = {Shahvandi, MK and Adhikari, S and Dumberry, M and Mishra, S and Soja, B}, title = {The increasingly dominant role of climate change on length of day variations.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {30}, pages = {e2406930121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2406930121}, pmid = {39008671}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {N-SLCT ESI CSP//NASA Sea-Level Change Team (N-SLCT), Earth Surface and Interior (ESI) Focus Area, and the Cryospheric Science Program/ ; RGPIN-2018-05796//Discovery Grant from NSERC/CRSNG of Canada/ ; }, abstract = {The melting of ice sheets and global glaciers results in sea-level rise, a pole-to-equator mass transport increasing Earth's oblateness and resulting in an increase in the length of day (LOD). Here, we use observations and reconstructions of mass variations at the Earth's surface since 1900 to show that the climate-induced LOD trend hovered between 0.3 and 1.0 ms/cy in the 20th century, but has accelerated to 1.33 [Formula: see text] 0.03 ms/cy since 2000. We further show that surface mass transport fully explains the accelerating trend in the Earth oblateness observed in the past three decades. We derive an independent measure of the decreasing LOD trend induced by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) of [Formula: see text]0.80 [Formula: see text] 0.10 ms/cy, which provides a constraint for the mantle viscosity. The sum of this GIA rate and lunar tidal friction fully explains the secular LOD trend that is inferred from the eclipse record in the past three millennia prior to the onset of contemporary climate change. Projections of future climate warming under high emission scenarios suggest that the climate-induced LOD rate may reach 2.62 [Formula: see text] 0.79 ms/cy by 2100, overtaking lunar tidal friction as the single most important contributor to the long-term LOD variations.}, }
@article {pmid39008128, year = {2024}, author = {McNellie, JP and May, WE and Rieseberg, LH and Hulke, BS}, title = {Association studies of salinity tolerance in sunflower provide robust breeding and selection strategies under climate change.}, journal = {TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik}, volume = {137}, number = {8}, pages = {184}, pmid = {39008128}, issn = {1432-2242}, support = {LSARP2014-223SUN//Genome Canada/ ; 3060-21000-043-00D//USDA-ARS/ ; 3060-21000-047-00D//USDA-ARS/ ; 2019077//NSF MRI (US)/ ; }, mesh = {*Helianthus/genetics/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Salt Tolerance/genetics ; *Phenotype ; *Climate Change ; *Plant Breeding ; Salinity ; Quantitative Trait Loci ; Soil/chemistry ; Genetic Association Studies ; Chromosome Mapping ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Selection, Genetic ; Genome-Wide Association Study ; Genotype ; }, abstract = {Phytotoxic soil salinity is a global problem, and in the northern Great Plains and western Canada, salt accumulates on the surface of marine sediment soils with high water tables under annual crop cover, particularly near wetlands. Crop production can overcome saline-affected soils using crop species and cultivars with salinity tolerance along with changes in management practices. This research seeks to improve our understanding of sunflower (Helianthus annuus) genetic tolerance to high salinity soils. Genome-wide association was conducted using the Sunflower Association Mapping panel grown for two years in naturally occurring saline soils (2016 and 2017, near Indian Head, Saskatchewan, Canada), and six phenotypes were measured: days to bloom, height, leaf area, leaf mass, oil percentage, and yield. Plot level soil salinity was determined by grid sampling of soil followed by kriging. Three estimates of sunflower performance were calculated: (1) under low soil salinity (< 4 dS/m), (2) under high soil salinity (> 4 dS/m), and (3) plasticity (regression coefficient between phenotype and soil salinity). Fourteen loci were significant, with one instance of co-localization between a leaf area and a leaf mass locus. Some genomic regions identified as significant in this study were also significant in a recent greenhouse salinity experiment using the same panel. Also, some candidate genes underlying significant QTL have been identified in other plant species as having a role in salinity response. This research identifies alleles for cultivar improvement and for genetic studies to further elucidate salinity tolerance pathways.}, }
@article {pmid39007436, year = {2024}, author = {Bhatt, P and Padhi, A and Agarwal, A and Katoch, CDS}, title = {The impact of climate change on viral transmission: Viral persistence and reactivation.}, journal = {Journal of medical virology}, volume = {96}, number = {7}, pages = {e29813}, doi = {10.1002/jmv.29813}, pmid = {39007436}, issn = {1096-9071}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Virus Activation ; Virus Diseases/transmission/virology ; Virus Latency ; }, }
@article {pmid39003900, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, J and Cong, RG}, title = {Managing ecosystem services in oleaginous forests for bioenergy provision and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {121790}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121790}, pmid = {39003900}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Oleaginous forests provide diverse ecosystem services, including timber, seed yield (a vital feedstock for biodiesel production), and substantial carbon savings. These carbon savings encompass carbon sequestration related to timber growth and carbon savings resulting from substituting fossil fuel with biodiesel. However, oleaginous forests are vulnerable to seed wasp attacks (disservice), which significantly threaten both seed yield and carbon savings. Using an integrated ecological-economic model that includes Faustmann's Land Expectation Value model and a pest damage control model, we aim to understand the intricate relationship among multiple ecosystem services and disservices of oleaginous forests. The results reveal four distinct phases contingent on varying pesticide application rates: the pesticide under-use phase, substitution phase, complementary phase, and over-use phase. Notably, a potential avenue to minimize pest damage is identified during the complementary phase by reducing the optimal rotation age at the expense of decreased carbon sequestration and bioenergy provision, posing a challenge to climate change mitigation. These findings have implications for formulating policies to manage conflicting ecosystem services of energy forests, offering valuable insights into the intersection of sustainable forest management and climate policy.}, }
@article {pmid39003013, year = {2024}, author = {McNamara, M and Barondeau, J and Brown, J}, title = {Mental Health, Climate Change, and Bodily Autonomy: An Analysis of Adolescent Health Policy in the Post-Pandemic Climate.}, journal = {Pediatric clinics of North America}, volume = {71}, number = {4}, pages = {729-744}, doi = {10.1016/j.pcl.2024.05.004}, pmid = {39003013}, issn = {1557-8240}, mesh = {Humans ; Adolescent ; *COVID-19/epidemiology/psychology ; *Health Policy ; *Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; *Adolescent Health ; *Personal Autonomy ; Young Adult ; SARS-CoV-2 ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the vulnerability of adolescents and young adults (AYAs) who face economic disadvantage, depend on social safety net resources, have politically targeted identities, are geopolitically displaced, and/or are racially or ethnically marginalized. A rapid change in social safety net policies has impacts that reverberate throughout interrelated domains of AYA health, especially for vulnerable AYAs. The authors analyze policy-related changes in mental health, climate change, and bodily autonomy to offer a paradigm for an equitable path forward.}, }
@article {pmid39002574, year = {2024}, author = {Fabri-Ruiz, S and Berdalet, E and Ulses, C and Somot, S and Vila, M and Lemée, R and Irisson, JO}, title = {Harmful Ostreopsis cf. ovata blooms could extend in time span with climate change in the Western Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174726}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174726}, pmid = {39002574}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Fast environmental changes and high coastal human pressures and impacts threaten the Mediterranean Sea. Over the last decade, recurrent blooms of the harmful dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata have been recorded in many Mediterranean beaches. These microalgae produce toxins that affect marine organisms and human health. Understanding the environmental conditions that influence the appearance and magnitude of O. cf. ovata blooms, as well as how climate change will modify its future distribution and dynamics, is crucial for predicting and managing their effects. This study investigates whether the spatio-temporal distribution of this microalga and the frequency of its blooms could be altered in future climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Western basin. For the first time, an ecological habitat model (EHM) is forced by physico-chemical climate change simulations at high-resolution, under the strong greenhouse gas emission trajectory (RCP8.5). It allows to characterize how O. cf. ovata may respond to projected conditions and how its distribution could shift over a wide spatial scale, in this plausible future. Before being applied to the EHM, future climate simulations are further refined by using a statistical adaptation method (Cumulative Distribution Function transform) to improve the predictions robustness. Temperature (optimum 23-26 °C), high salinity (>38 psu) and high inorganic nutrient concentrations (nitrate >0.25 mmol N·m[-3] and phosphate >0.035 mmol P·m[-3]) drive O. cf. ovata abundances. High spatial disparities in future abundances are observed. Namely, O. cf. ovata abundances could increase on the Mediterranean coasts of France, Spain and the Adriatic Sea while a decrease is expected in the Tyrrhenian Sea. The bloom period could be extended, starting earlier and continuing later in the year. From a methodological point of view, this study highlights best practices of EHMs in the context of climate change to identify sensitive areas for current and future harmful algal blooms.}, }
@article {pmid39002547, year = {2024}, author = {Mozumder, MK}, title = {Pre-migration decision-making support for people affected by climate change.}, journal = {The lancet. Psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2215-0366(24)00216-5}, pmid = {39002547}, issn = {2215-0374}, }
@article {pmid39002461, year = {2024}, author = {Ahmed, R and Chen, XH and Hoang, YH and Do-Linh, C}, title = {Climate change effects and their implications for the financial markets: Evidence from the United Kingdom.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {121782}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121782}, pmid = {39002461}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This study aims to examine how the climate affects the behaviour of the stock market. To achieve this, we have drawn on daily data from Jan 2005 to Jan 31, 2023 and several environmental factors (e.g., temperature, humidity, cloud cover and visibility) to account for extreme weather conditions using the 21-day moving average and its standard deviation. The empirical analysis has revealed three key findings regarding the impact of weather on the stock market's behaviour. First, various forms of extreme weather conditions consistently lead to influence stock behaviour. Second, results provide valuable insights into market behaviour and help investors to make more informed investment decisions. Third, the weather conditions have new information about the climate risk and investors should react to it swiftly in light of our findings. The saliency theory can help reconcile the theoretical conflicts between the real options and risk-shifting theories when it comes to investing in uncertain and extreme climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38999693, year = {2024}, author = {Soare, R and Dinu, M and Babeanu, C and Niculescu, M and Soare, M and Botu, M}, title = {Quantitative and Qualitative Production of Species Cucumis metuliferus and the Potential for Adaptation in the Context of Current Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {38999693}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Cucumis metuliferus E. Meyer ex Naudin belongs to the family Cucurbitaceae. It is an annual vegetable species known as horned melon or kiwano. Fruits are recommended for the daily diet because they provide vitamins, minerals, and phytochemicals to alleviate malnutrition and improve human health. In this study, kiwano was cultivated in the climatic conditions of Southwestern Romania, which is characterized by warm summers, lower precipitation, and high temperatures, ensuring optimal conditions for growth and development. The fruits were harvested at three stages of consumption: immature stage (green), intermediate stage (white-yellow) or the mature stage (yellow-orange). They were also subjected to analysis on the productive yield and physical-chemical properties. The results showed that the number of fruits ranged from 13.9 to 15.3 fruits/plant, and their average weight had values from 204 g to 234 g, depending on the harvest stage. The results obtained for bioactive compounds and antioxidant activity indicated significant differences (p ≤ 0.05), depending on the harvesting stage. The highest values for the antioxidant capacity (140.90 μM TE/100g DPPH) and total polyphenols (48.78 TPC mg/100 g) were recorded in the immature fruit phase, as well as for the carbohydrate content (3.56%), total protein (1.98%), ascorbic acid (4.3 mg/100 g f.w.), and carotene (0.98 mg/100 g) in the mature fruit phase. These results may stimulate interest in the introduction of this species as a niche crop and for consumption as a source of natural antioxidants for the prevention of diseases due to oxidative stress.}, }
@article {pmid38999591, year = {2024}, author = {Fan, W and Luo, Y}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Suitable Habitats and Ecological Niche for Trollius Wildflowers in Ili River Valley, Tacheng, Altay Prefecture.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {38999591}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Xinjiang in China is distinguished by its distinctive regional landscape and high ecological sensitivity. Trollius wildflowers represent a unique and iconic element of the mountain flower landscape in Xinjiang. However, their populations are predominantly distributed in mountainous areas, making them susceptible to climate change. Despite this, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of suitable habitats and ecological niche differentiation for Trollius wildflowers have rarely been quantified. Consequently, simulations were conducted using the R-optimized MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitat distribution of Trollius wildflowers. This was based on the occurrence data and environmental variables for the four species of Trollius (T. altaicus, T. asiaticus, T. dschungaricus, and T. lilacinus) that exist in the study area. The simulation was conducted over a period of time, beginning with the past glacial period and extending to the present, and then to the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under multiple scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The simulation of suitable habitats enabled the measurement of the ecological niche breadth and differentiation. The results demonstrate that the model predictions are precisely accurate, with AUC values exceeding 0.9. Annual mean temperature (Bio1), isothermality (Bio3), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) are the dominant climate variables, in addition to vegetation, elevation, and soil factors. The proportion of suitable habitats for Trollius wildflowers varies considerably over time, from 0.14% to 70.97%. The majority of habitat loss or gain occurs at the edges of mountains, while stable habitats are concentrated in the core of the mountains. The gravity center of suitable habitats also shifts with spatial transfer, with the shifts mainly occurring in a northeasterly-southwesterly direction. The SSP1-2.6 scenario results in the sustained maintenance of habitats, whereas the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios present challenges to the conservation of habitats. The threshold of ecological niche breadth for Trollius wildflowers is subject to fluctuations, while the ecological niche differentiation also varies. The study aims to examine the evolution of the habitat and ecological niche of Trollius wildflowers in Xinjiang under climate change. The findings will provide theoretical support for delineating the conservation area, clarify the scope of mountain flower tourism development and protection of mountain flower resources, and promote the sustainable development of ecotourism and effective utilization of territorial space in Xinjiang.}, }
@article {pmid38999590, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, X and Li, X and Cui, J and Liu, R and Li, J and Yang, C}, title = {Response to Climate Change and GAP Analysis of Thuja koraiensis Nakai.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {38999590}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2019073056//Wildlife Protection and Management Project of the State Forestry Administration/ ; }, abstract = {Due to global warming and increased human activity, the wild population of Thuja koraiensis Nakai (T. koraiensis) has dropped, placing it in danger. An understanding of the response of T. koraiensis to climate change and the determination of priority conservation areas are tremendously critical for proper conservation. Using sixty-nine T. koraiensis distribution points and seven environmental factors, the Maxent model was used to predict potentially suitable areas and spatial variation patterns of T. koraiensis and the Marxan conservation planning model was used to evaluate conservation gap areas. Research shows that the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of potentially suitable areas for T. koraiensis included elevation, precipitation of the driest month, isothermality and precipitation of the wettest quarter. Under the current climatic conditions, highly suitable areas for T. koraiensis are mainly distributed in the Changbai Mountains within Samjiyon County and Baishan City, the Hamgyong Mountains within the western part of Hamgyong-Bukto Province, and the T'aeback-Sanmaek Mountains within Gangwon-do, Kumgangsan Special Administrative Region and Kangwon-do. Under future climate conditions, suitable areas for T. koraiensis show a decreasing trend, and the suitable area will be reduced to higher elevations, and the Hamgyong Mountains may become a refuge. Based on GAP analysis, 69.69% of the priority conservation areas of T. koraiensis are located outside of the nature reserve, and these conservation gap areas are primarily in the southern part of the Changbai Mountains and Kangwon-do.}, }
@article {pmid38999584, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, L and Jiang, B and Meng, Y and Jia, Y and Xu, Q and Pan, Y}, title = {The Influence of Climate Change on the Distribution of Hibiscus mutabilis in China: MaxEnt Model-Based Prediction.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {38999584}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {202206910043//China Scholarship Council/ ; }, abstract = {Our study utilized 374 geographical distribution records of H. mutabilis and 19 bioclimatic factors, employing the MaxEnt model and the Geographic Information System (ArcGIS). The key environmental variables influencing the suitable distribution areas of H. mutabilis were analyzed through the comprehensive contribution rate, permutation importance, and Pearson correlation coefficient. Based on this analysis, the contemporary and future suitable distribution areas and their extents were predicted. The results indicate that the key limiting factor affecting the suitable distribution areas of H. mutabilis is the precipitation of the driest month (bio14), with secondary factors being annual precipitation (bio12), annual mean temperature (bio1), and annual temperature range (bio7). Under contemporary climate conditions, the total suitable area for H. mutabilis is approximately 2,076,600 km[2], primarily concentrated in the tropical and subtropical regions of southeastern China. Under low-to-medium-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5), the total suitable area of H. mutabilis shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing compared to the current scenario. In contrast, under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), it exhibits a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The spatial pattern changes indicate that the retention rate of suitable areas for H. mutabilis ranges from 95.28% to 99.28%, with the distribution centers primarily located in Hunan and Guizhou provinces, showing an overall migration trend towards the west and north. These findings suggest that H. mutabilis possesses a certain level of adaptability to climate change. However, it is crucial to consider regional drought and sudden drought events in practical cultivation and introduction processes. The results of our study provide a scientific basis for the rational cultivation management, conservation, and utilization of germplasm resources of H. mutabilis.}, }
@article {pmid38997991, year = {2024}, author = {Popović, T and Ćurčić, NB and Đurđić, S and Stanojević, G and Raković, M}, title = {An Assessment of the Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of the Glacial Relict Woodpecker Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {13}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani14131879}, pmid = {38997991}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {451-03-66/2024-03/200053, 451-03-66/2024-03/200172 and 451-03-65/2024-03/200091//Ministry of Science, Technological Development and Innovation of the Republic of Serbia/ ; }, abstract = {The Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus is a rare and endangered woodpecker on the Balkan Peninsula. Despite being widely distributed in Northern Europe, its distribution on the Balkan Peninsula is limited to high-altitude forest habitats, where it represents a glacial relict. Assessing the climate change impacts on its distribution can be crucial for improving the conservation and future survival of this specialist species on the Balkan Peninsula. We used species distribution modelling (SDM) to identify its potential distribution in the past (last interglacial and last glacial maximum), present, and future (2050 and 2070). Our results indicate that this species had the greatest distribution during the last glacial maximum, after which its distribution contracted to areas where suitable environment persisted (high altitudes). The largest territory of the Balkan Peninsula has an unsuitable environment for the species to inhabit, while highly suitable habitats have the smallest share in the total area of suitable habitats. All future models show a decrease in the area of suitable habitats compared with the current period, indicating that global warming has a negative effect on the distribution of the species. We recommend that conservation activities must be of greater extent to ensure the species' survival in the Balkans.}, }
@article {pmid38997688, year = {2024}, author = {Arnot, G and Thomas, S and Pitt, H and McCarthy, S and Warner, E}, title = {"Older people will die of old age. I'll die of climate change": engaging children and young people in climate decision making for public health.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {1869}, pmid = {38997688}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship//Australian Government/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Child ; Adolescent ; Female ; Male ; *Decision Making ; Australia ; *Public Health ; Qualitative Research ; Interviews as Topic ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The climate crisis is a significant risk to the health and wellbeing of children, young people, and future generations. While there are calls for children and young people's engagement in climate decision making, current power structures limit their participation. This paper aimed to understand children's perspectives about the impact of the climate crisis on their futures, their ability to influence climate decisions, and strategies and mechanisms to facilitate their greater engagement in decisions made about the climate crisis.<br><br>METHODS: Online in-depth interviews were conducted with n&#x2009;=&#x2009;28 children (aged 12-16 years) across Australia. Photo elicitation techniques were used to prompt discussion about how the climate crisis impacted their futures, their ability to influence climate decisions, and strategies and mechanisms to engage them in climate decision making. A reflexive approach to thematic analysis was used to construct three themes from data. Images were analysed for ascribed meanings.<br><br>RESULTS: First, participants stated that they and future generations will inherit the climate crisis from older generations, specifically decision makers. Second, they described a need to address a range of age-related barriers that limit children and young people's engagement in climate decision making, including perceptions about their capabilities. Finally, they discussed strategies and mechanisms to embed children and young people's perspectives within climate decision making, including at civic and political levels.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Children and young people have the right to be involved in decisions made about the climate crisis which significantly impact their futures, including their health and wellbeing. They argue for structural changes to embed their views in climate decision making, and describe a range of engagement strategies and mechanisms to structure their perspectives and knowledge with decision making processes. Furthermore, genuine involvement of children and young people in climate discussions must avoid youthwashing and tokenistic participation. The public health community can help address barriers to youth participation in climate action and should actively engage and collaborate with children and young people to facilitate their political and democratic influence over the climate crisis. This involves making room and creating an accessible seat at the decision making table to ensure their perspectives are embedded in climate decisions.}, }
@article {pmid38997601, year = {2024}, author = {Rathnayake, H and Mizunoya, T}, title = {Assessing the global warming potential impact of organic fertilizer strategies in rice cultivation in Sri Lanka.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38997601}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Rice is the staple food in Sri Lanka, and over 15% of the national land is allocated for rice cultivation. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from rice fields account for 10% of national GHG emissions. The country has committed to reducing its emissions by 14.5% between 2010 and 2030 and achieving net zero emissions by 2060. In 2021, the country banned agro-fertilizer imports and opted for organic fertilizers, leading to a notable decrease in production and posing challenges to food security. However, the impact of adopting compost fertilizers alone remains unexplored. This study evaluated the global warming impact of two organic fertilizer strategies: switching to compost fertilizer instead of urea and applying rice straw compost instead of retaining crop residue. We applied the Denitrification and Decomposition model (DNDC 95) to rice field management data from Sri Lanka's Mahaweli H agricultural region. Simulations suggest that both strategies would increase the global warming potential of rice fields, mainly owing to elevated N2O emissions. This outweighs the mitigation benefits of avoiding crop residue retention and adding organic carbon through compost. Overall, our results point to the potential risk of shifting exclusively to compost-based fertilizers.}, }
@article {pmid38997557, year = {2024}, author = {Krämer, K}, title = {Daily briefing: Why climate change is making flights rougher.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-01569-5}, pmid = {38997557}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38997290, year = {2024}, author = {Taniushkina, D and Lukashevich, A and Shevchenko, V and Belalov, IS and Sotiriadi, N and Narozhnaia, V and Kovalev, K and Krenke, A and Lazarichev, N and Bulkin, A and Maximov, Y}, title = {Case study on climate change effects and food security in Southeast Asia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {16150}, pmid = {38997290}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Asia, Southeastern ; *Food Security ; Humans ; *Agriculture ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Oryza/growth &amp; development ; Crop Production ; Food Supply ; }, abstract = {Agriculture, a cornerstone of human civilization, faces rising challenges from climate change, resource limitations, and stagnating yields. Precise crop production forecasts are crucial for shaping trade policies, development strategies, and humanitarian initiatives. This study introduces a comprehensive machine learning framework designed to predict crop production. We leverage CMIP5 climate projections under a moderate carbon emission scenario to evaluate the future suitability of agricultural lands and incorporate climatic data, historical agricultural trends, and fertilizer usage to project yield changes. Our integrated approach forecasts significant regional variations in crop production across Southeast Asia by 2028, identifying potential cropland utilization. Specifically, the cropland area in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam is projected to decline by more than 10% if no action is taken, and there is potential to mitigate that loss. Moreover, rice production is projected to decline by 19% in Viet Nam and 7% in Thailand, while the Philippines may see a 5% increase compared to 2021 levels. Our findings underscore the critical impacts of climate change and human activities on agricultural productivity, offering essential insights for policy-making and fostering international cooperation.}, }
@article {pmid38997028, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, S and Zhou, X and Reyns, J and Yamazaki, D and Yin, J and Li, X}, title = {Climate change and urban sprawl: Unveiling the escalating flood risks in river deltas with a deep dive into the GBM river delta.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174703}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174703}, pmid = {38997028}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {River deltas, such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, are highly vulnerable to flooding, exacerbated by intense human activities and rapid urban growth. This study explores the evolution of urban flood risks in the GBM delta under the combined impacts of climate change and urban expansion. Unlike traditional assessments that focus on a single flood source, we consider multiple sources-coastal, fluvial, and pluvial. Our findings indicate that future urban expansion will significantly increase flood exposure, with a substantial rise in flood risk from all sources by the end of this century. Climate change is the main driver of increased coastal flood risks, while urban growth primarily amplifies fluvial, and pluvial flood risks. This highlights the urgent need for adaptive urban planning strategies to mitigate future flooding and support sustainable urban development. The extreme high emissions future scenario (SSP5-8.5) shows the largest urban growth and consequent flood risk, emphasizing the necessity for preemptive measures to mitigate future urban flooding. Our study provides crucial insights into flood risk dynamics in delta environments, aiding policymakers and planners in developing resilience strategies against escalating flood threats.}, }
@article {pmid38996601, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, L and Huang, Z and Gan, B and Zhang, Z and Fu, H and Fang, D and Dong, R and Liu, Y and Zhang, W and Li, R and Dong, X}, title = {Climate change impacts on magnitude and frequency of urban floods under scenario and model uncertainties.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {121679}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121679}, pmid = {38996601}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Many studies have confirmed that climate change leads to frequent urban flooding, which can lead to significant socioeconomic repercussions. However, most existing studies have not evaluated the impacts of climate change on urban flood from both event-scale and annual-scale dimensions. In addition, there are only few studies that simultaneously consider scenario and model uncertainties of climate change, and combine flood risk assessment and uncertainty analysis results to provide practical suggestions for urban drainage system management. This study uses the statistical downscaling method to calculate the design rainfall under ten rainfall return periods of four climate models and three climate change scenarios in 2040s, 2060s, and 2080s in various prefecture-level cities in China. The four climate models are HadGEM2- ES, MPI-ESM-MR, NorESM1-M and FGOALS-g2 models and the three climate change scenarios are constructed by different representative concentration pathways (RCP), namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. On this basis, relying on the generated drainage systems using geographical information and other data, event-scale and annual-scale precipitation are combined to calculate the change ratio of annual flood volume expectation in prefecture-level cities in each future year compared with the current situation. Furthermore, the study evaluates scenario and model uncertainties of climate change, and then comprehensively integrates the flood risk and its uncertainties to provides suggestions for urban drainage system management.}, }
@article {pmid38995941, year = {2024}, author = {, }, title = {Correction: Vegetation and climate change at the southern margin of the Neo-Tethys during the Cenomanian (Late Cretaceous): Evidence from Egypt.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {e0307337}, pmid = {38995941}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281008.].}, }
@article {pmid38995471, year = {2024}, author = {Saraf, PN and Srivastava, J and Munoz, F and Charles, B and Samal, P}, title = {How can dry tropical forests respond to climate change? Predictions for key Non-Timber Forest Product species show different trends in India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {8}, pages = {727}, pmid = {38995471}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; India ; *Forests ; *Tropical Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Trees ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {The present study provides an assessment of the distribution of key Non-Timber Forest Product species in India, namely Aegle marmelos (L.) Correa, Buchanania lanzan Spreng., Madhuca longifolia (J. Koenig ex L.) J. F. Macbr., Phyllanthus emblica L. and Terminalia bellirica (Gaertn.) Roxb. The suitable habitat was analyzed under current climate scenarios and subsequently, the future distribution (2050s and 2070s) was mapped under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, along with the past distribution (mid-Holocene, ~ 6000 cal year BP) using the MaxEnt species distribution model. The distribution of all species is primarily driven by key bioclimatic factors, including annual precipitation (Bio_12), mean annual temperature (Bio_1), isothermality (Bio_3) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio_19). The results indicate that the present distribution of these species is mainly centred in the Western Ghats regions, Central Highlands, North-eastern India and Siwalik hills. The current study suggests that under the future climate change, the suitable habitat for A. marmelos and T. bellirica is expected to increase while for B. lanzan, M. longifolia and P. emblica, it is projected to decline. A. marmelos and T. bellirica are anticipated to exhibit resilience to future climate changes and are expected to be minimally affected, while B. lanzan, M. longifolia and P. emblica are highly sensitive to high temperature and alteration in rainfall pattern expected under future climate changes. The projections of habitat suitability areas can be used as a valuable foundation for developing conservation and restoration strategies aimed at alleviating the climate change impacts on NTFP species.}, }
@article {pmid38995253, year = {2024}, author = {Krueger, J and Long, J and Bikomeye, JC}, title = {Climate Change and Health: Public Health and Legal Strategies to Reduce Reliance on Fossil Fuels, Increase Air Quality, and Improve Human Health.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {52}, number = {S1}, pages = {53-56}, doi = {10.1017/jme.2024.49}, pmid = {38995253}, issn = {1748-720X}, support = {//Robert Wood Johnson Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Fossil Fuels ; *Air Pollution/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control ; United States ; Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {Reliance upon fossil fuels and limited greenspace contribute to poor indoor and outdoor air quality and adverse health outcomes, particularly in communities of color. This article describes justice-informed public health and legal interventions to increase access to greenspace and accelerate the transitions to renewable energy and away from gas appliances.}, }
@article {pmid38995250, year = {2024}, author = {Agahi, M and Bartlett, E and Lawton, B and Salehi, C}, title = {Scalable, Coordinated Strategies Leveraging Community Health Workers in Addressing the Adverse and Inequitable Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {52}, number = {S1}, pages = {62-65}, doi = {10.1017/jme.2024.48}, pmid = {38995250}, issn = {1748-720X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Community Health Workers ; United States ; }, abstract = {Effective climate change resilience in local communities must center each community's unique challenges and essential role in developing climate resilience strategies. This article will discuss recent developments by the federal government that align with a community-centered approach, and how Community Health Workers can influence the outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid38995245, year = {2024}, author = {Agahi, M and Bartlett, E and Lawton, B and McAdams, J and Roy, R and Salehi, C}, title = {Local Public Health Departments at the Intersection of Climate Change, Health Equity, and Public Health Laws and Policies.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {52}, number = {S1}, pages = {57-61}, doi = {10.1017/jme.2024.47}, pmid = {38995245}, issn = {1748-720X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Equity/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; *Local Government ; *Health Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Public Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United States ; Public Health Administration/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {Public health laws and policies are uniquely able to mitigate the adverse and inequitable health impacts of climate change. This article summarizes some key considerations in developing such laws and policies and a variety of approaches local public health departments are using to increase climate resilience and health equity.}, }
@article {pmid38995131, year = {2024}, author = {Bonafede, M and Morabito, M and Marinaccio, A}, title = {[Tools of action for reducing the effects of climate change on occupational health and safety].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {48}, number = {3}, pages = {189-192}, doi = {10.19191/EP24.3.A742.052}, pmid = {38995131}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Occupational Health ; Italy ; }, }
@article {pmid38993973, year = {2024}, author = {Mach, KJ and Jagannathan, K and Shi, L and Turek-Hankins, LL and Arnold, JR and Brelsford, C and Flores, AN and Gao, J and Martín, CE and McCollum, DL and Moss, R and Niemann, J and Rashleigh, B and Reed, PM}, title = {Research to Confront Climate Change Complexity: Intersectionality, Integration, and Innovative Governance.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {1-17}, pmid = {38993973}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {Climate impacts increasingly unfold in interlinked systems of people, nature, and infrastructure. The cascading consequences are revealing sometimes surprising connections across sectors and regions, and prospects for climate responses also depend on complex, difficult-to-understand interactions. In this commentary, we build on the innovations of the United States Fifth National Climate Assessment to suggest a framework for understanding and responding to complex climate challenges. This approach involves: (a) integration of disciplines and expertise to understand how intersectionality shapes complex climate impacts and the wide-ranging effects of climate responses, (b) collaborations among diverse knowledge holders to improve responses and better encompass intersectionality, and (c) sustained experimentation with and learning about governance approaches capable of handling the complexity of climate change. Together, these three pillars underscore that usability of climate-relevant knowledge requires transdisciplinary coordination of research and practice. We outline actionable steps for climate research to incorporate intersectionality, integration, and innovative governance, as is increasingly necessary for confronting climate complexity and sustaining equitable, ideally vibrant climate futures.}, }
@article {pmid38992906, year = {2024}, author = {Braunwald, E}, title = {Cardiovascular effects of climate change.}, journal = {European heart journal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/eurheartj/ehae401}, pmid = {38992906}, issn = {1522-9645}, }
@article {pmid38991350, year = {2024}, author = {Nakhaei, P and Kisi, O and Nakhaei, M and Fathollahi-Fard, AM and Gheibi, M}, title = {Assessment of climate change on river streamflow under different representative concentration pathways.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {121754}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121754}, pmid = {38991350}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change and excessive greenhouse gas emissions profoundly impact hydrological cycles, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, necessitating assessments of their effects on water resource management, agriculture, soil fertility, nutrient transport, hydropower generation, and flood risk. This study investigates climate change repercussions on streamflow in the Zarrineh River Basin, Iran, across three decadal intervals (2020-2029, 2055-2064, and 2090-2099) aiming to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Four General Circulation Models (GCMs), chosen based on distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) determined by the annual mean temperature gradient, are employed. These models generate daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures along with precipitation data. Subsequently, these variables are integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to analyze river flow alterations for each decadal timeframe. Comparison between future projections and observed climate data reveals a gradual decline in precipitation and Tmax, coupled with a substantial increase in Tmin. The average precipitation diminishes from 0.77 mm in the period 1985-1994 to a range of 0.42-0.28 mm in 2090-2099. The simulated flow at the basin outlet highlights that the GCM with the highest annual mean temperature gradient yields the lowest streamflow, while conversely, the model with the lowest gradient generates the highest. Consequently, streamflow experiences a decline from 52 m[3]/s in 1985-1994 to a range of 41-20 m[3]/s in 2090-2099.}, }
@article {pmid38991348, year = {2024}, author = {Zimmermann, B and Kruber, S and Nendel, C and Munack, H and Hildmann, C}, title = {Assessing the cooling potential of climate change adaptation measures in rural areas.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {121595}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121595}, pmid = {38991348}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Atmospheric heat has become a major public concern in a rapidly warming world. Evapotranspiration, however, provides effective land surface cooling during the vegetation period. Adversely, modern cultural landscapes - due to both water and potential evapotranspiration pathways lacking - are increasingly incapable of offering this important benefit. We hypothesised that concerted measures for a revived landscape water retention can fuel plant transpiration, especially during dry periods, and thus contribute to climate change adaptation by stabilising the regional climate. Seeking nature-based ways to an improved landscape water retention, we used the land surface temperature (LST) as a proxy for landscape mesoclimate. For our drought-prone rural study area, we identified potential candidate environmental predictors for which we established statistical relationships to LST. We then, from a set of potential climate change adaptation measures, mapped selected items to potential locations of implementation. Building on that, we evaluated a certain measures' probable cooling effect using (i) the fitted model and (ii) the expected expression of predictors before and after a hypothetical measure implementation. In the modelling, we took into account the spatial and temporal autocorrelation of the LST data and thus achieved realistic parameter estimates. Using the candidate predictor set and the model, we were able to establish a ranking of the effectiveness of climate adaptation measures. However, due to the spatial variability of the predictors, the modelled LST is site-specific. This results in a spatial differentiation of a measure's benefit. Furthermore, seasonal variations occur, such as those caused by plant growth. On average, the afforestation of arable land or urban brownfields, and the rewetting of former wet meadows have the largest cooling capacities of up to 3.5 K. We conclude that heat countermeasures based on fostering both evapotranspiration and landscape water retention, even in rural regions, offer promising adaptation ways to atmospheric warming.}, }
@article {pmid38989640, year = {2024}, author = {Ma, Z and Wang, W and Chen, X and Gehman, K and Yang, H and Yang, Y}, title = {Prediction of the global occurrence of maize diseases and estimation of yield loss under climate change.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.8309}, pmid = {38989640}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {CSTB2022TIAD-LUX0004//Chongqing Technology Innovation and Application Development Special Project/ ; 2022YFD1901402//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change significantly impacts global maize production via yield reduction, posing a threat to global food security. Disease-related crop damage reduces quality and yield and results in economic losses. However, the occurrence of diseases caused by climate change, and thus crop yield loss, has not been given much attention.<br><br>RESULTS: This study aims to investigate the potential impact of six major diseases on maize yield loss over the next 20 to 80&#x2009;years under climate change. To this end, the Maximum Entropy model was implemented, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 data. The results indicated that temperature and precipitation are identified as primary limiting factors for disease onset. Southern corn rust was projected to be the most severe disease in the future; with a few of the combined occurrence of all the selected diseases covered in this study were predicted to progressively worsen over time. Yield losses caused by diseases varied per continent, with North America facing the highest loss, followed by Asia, South America, Europe, Africa, and Oceania.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study provides a basis for regional projections and global control of maize diseases under future climate conditions. &#xa9; 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid38988350, year = {2024}, author = {Wan, Y and Li, L and Zhou, J and Ma, Y and Zhang, Y and Liu, Y and Li, J and Liu, W}, title = {Predicting the potential distribution change of the endangered Francois' langur (Trachypithecus francoisi) across its entire range in China under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e11684}, pmid = {38988350}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The Francois' langur (Trachypithecus francoisi) is a rare primate species indicated as endangered and distributed in karst areas in northern Vietnam and southwestern China. However, research limited to specific nature reserves or sites has hampered holistic conservation management. A comprehensive map of the potential distribution for the Francois' langur is essential to advance conservation efforts and ensure coordinated management across regions. Here, we used 82 occurrence records of Francois' langur surveyed in Guangxi, Guizhou, and Chongqing from 2017 to 2020, along with 12 environmental variables, to build the potential habitat model under current and future climate (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090s) using maximum entropy models (MaxEnt). Our results indicated that (1) precipitation- and temperature-associated bioclimatic variables contributed the most to the distribution of Francois' langur. Vegetation, water sources, and anthropogenic variables also affected its distribution; (2) a total of 144,207.44 km[2] of potential suitable habitat across the entire range in China was estimated by the current model. Moderate- and high-suitability habitats accounted for only 23.76% (34,265.96 km[2]) of the predicted suitable habitat and were mainly distributed in southwest Guangxi, east of Chongqing, and the border between Guizhou and Chongqing; (3) the suitable habitats of Francois' langur will contract considerably under future climate change, and the habitat centroid will move in the southeast direction with a shifting distance of approximately 2.84 km/year from current to 2100. The habitat prediction of Francois' langur and the main drivers proposed in this study could provide essential insights for the future conservation of this endangered species. The existing distribution areas should be monitored and protected, but conservation beyond existing habitats should also be a focus of effort, especially in future expansion areas. This would ensure effective and timely protection under climate change and anthropogenic pressures.}, }
@article {pmid38988343, year = {2024}, author = {Gholamhosseini, A and Yousefi, M and Esmaeili, HR}, title = {Predicting climate change impacts on the distribution of endemic fish Cyprinion muscatense in the Arabian Peninsula.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e11720}, pmid = {38988343}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Freshwater fishes are facing considerable threats in the Arabian Peninsula which is considered as a highly stressed region in the Middle East. It is predicted that northern Oman is likely to face decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature in coming decades. In this study, we focused on an endemic cyprinid fish Cyprinion muscatense, as a model to investigate impacts of climate change on the mountain fishes inhibiting in this arid region. This species is expected to be strongly affected by climate change because of its limited distribution range in a montane area surrounded by lowlands and sea, limiting the species in shift to other areas. We used an ensemble approach by considering two regressions-based species distribution modeling (SDM) algorithms: generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized additive models (GAM) to model the species habitat suitability and predict the impacts of climate change on the species habitat suitability. Based on the distribution models, the montane area located in northeastern Oman was identified as the most suitable habitat for this species. Our results indicate that, even under the minimum greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 2.6), climate change will produce a high reduction in its potential future habitats. According to the results of percent contribution, elevation and annual minimum temperature were the most important variables in predicting the species suitable habitats. Results also showed that only a small percentage of suitable habitats for the species within boundaries of protected areas. Therefore, the impact of climate change on the species appears particularly alarming. Although our study was restricted to a single cyprinid freshwater species, decreases in potential habitats are likely predicted for other cyprinid fish species restricted to the mountains of this region, suggesting severe consideration is needed for aquatic systems in future conservation planning, especially for endemic freshwater fishes.}, }
@article {pmid38988000, year = {2024}, author = {Parums, DV}, title = {A Review of the Increasing Global Impact of Climate Change on Human Health and Approaches to Medical Preparedness.}, journal = {Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research}, volume = {30}, number = {}, pages = {e945763}, doi = {10.12659/MSM.945763}, pmid = {38988000}, issn = {1643-3750}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Civil Defense/trends ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {At the end of 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) identified climate change as the greatest threat to human health. Global climate change is due to rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels, mainly by populations in developed and developing countries. In 2022, the world experienced the highest temperatures for over 100,000 years. However, in 2022, global investment in fossil fuels increased by 10% and reached more than USD 1 trillion. The 2023 Lancet Commission report concluded that there has been little progress in protecting individuals from the adverse health effects of climate change. It is clear that global action against climate change needs to move more quickly, and the inequalities in the effects of climate change, including the impact on health, are increasing. This article aims to review the ongoing global impact of climate change on human health at individual and population levels, including recent initiatives and medical approaches to prepare for this increasing challenge.}, }
@article {pmid38987987, year = {2024}, author = {Sahni, J and Lin, WS and Kilinc, E and Abdelaal, M and Ganesan, S and Spears, R and Karl, E}, title = {Advancing climate change education in the dental curriculum.}, journal = {Journal of dental education}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jdd.13661}, pmid = {38987987}, issn = {1930-7837}, }
@article {pmid38984769, year = {2024}, author = {Parker, EJ and Weiskopf, SR and Oliver, RY and Rubenstein, MA and Jetz, W}, title = {Insufficient and biased representation of species geographic responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {e17408}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17408}, pmid = {38984769}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//E.O. Wilson Biodiversity Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Biodiversity ; Plants ; }, abstract = {The geographic redistributions of species due to a rapidly changing climate are poised to perturb ecological communities and significantly impact ecosystems and human livelihoods. Effectively managing these biological impacts requires a thorough understanding of the patterns and processes of species geographic range shifts. While substantial recent redistributions have been identified and recognized to vary by taxon, region, and range geometry, there are large gaps and biases in the available evidence. Here, we use the largest compilation of geographic range change observations to date, comprised of 33,016 potential redistributions across 12,009 species, to formally assess within- and cross-species coverage and biases and to motivate future data collection. We find that species coverage varies strongly by taxon and underrepresents species at high and low latitudes. Within species, assessments of potential redistributions came from parts of their geographic range that were highly uneven and non-representative. For most species and taxa, studies were strongly biased toward the colder parts of species' distributions and thus significantly underrepresented populations that might get pushed beyond their maximum temperature limits. Coverage of potential leading and trailing geographic range edges under a changing climate was similarly uneven. Only 8% of studied species were assessed at both high and low latitude and elevation range edges, with most only covered at one edge. This suggests that substantial within-species biases exacerbate the considerable geographic and taxonomic among-species unevenness in evidence. Our results open the door for a more quantitative accounting for existing knowledge biases in climate change ecology and a more informed management and conservation. Our findings offer guidance for future data collection that better addresses information gaps and provides a more effective foundation for managing the biological impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38984450, year = {2024}, author = {Zhao, X and Wei, JC and Li, C}, title = {Critical Review and Recommendations for Enhancing the Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Rheumatic Conditions.}, journal = {Arthritis &amp; rheumatology (Hoboken, N.J.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/art.42952}, pmid = {38984450}, issn = {2326-5205}, }
@article {pmid38982862, year = {2024}, author = {Li, X and Huntingford, C and Wang, K and Cui, J and Xu, H and Kan, F and Anniwaer, N and Yang, H and Peñuelas, J and Piao, S}, title = {Increased crossing of thermal stress thresholds of vegetation under global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {e17406}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17406}, pmid = {38982862}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {41988101//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Ecosystem ; Plant Development ; Temperature ; Seasons ; Hot Temperature ; Climate Models ; Plants ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Temperature extremes exert a significant influence on terrestrial ecosystems, but the precise levels at which these extremes trigger adverse shifts in vegetation productivity have remained elusive. In this study, we have derived two critical thresholds, using standard deviations (SDs) of growing-season temperature and satellite-based vegetation productivity as key indicators. Our findings reveal that, on average, vegetation productivity experiences rapid suppression when confronted with temperature anomalies exceeding 1.45 SD above the mean temperature during 2001-2018. Furthermore, at temperatures exceeding 2.98 SD above the mean, we observe the maximum level of suppression, particularly in response to the most extreme high-temperature events. When Earth System Models are driven by a future medium emission scenario, they project that mean temperatures will routinely surpass both of these critical thresholds by approximately the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, it is important to note that the timing of these threshold crossings exhibits spatial variation and will appear much earlier in tropical regions. Our finding highlights that restricting global warming to just 1.5°C can increase safe areas for vegetation growth by 13% compared to allowing warming to reach 2°C above preindustrial levels. This mitigation strategy helps avoid exposure to detrimental extreme temperatures that breach these thresholds. Our study underscores the pivotal role of climate mitigation policies in fostering the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems in a warming world.}, }
@article {pmid38982232, year = {2024}, author = {Guo, Z}, title = {More studies needed on how climate change affects exercise health benefits.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {631}, number = {8020}, pages = {275}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-02249-0}, pmid = {38982232}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Humans ; *Exercise ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid38982210, year = {2024}, author = {Bizama, G and Jan, A and Olivos, JA and Fuentes-Jaque, G and Valdovinos, C and Urrutia, R and Arismendi, I}, title = {Climate change can disproportionately reduce habitats of stream fishes with restricted ranges in southern South America.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {15780}, pmid = {38982210}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {21201511//Agencia Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n y Desarrollo/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; *Fishes/physiology ; South America ; Rivers ; Endangered Species ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Chile ; Fresh Water ; }, abstract = {Freshwater fishes are among the most threatened taxa worldwide owing to changes in land use, species introductions, and climate change. Although more than half of the freshwater fishes in the Chilean Mediterranean ecoregion are considered vulnerable or endangered, still little is known about their biogeography. Fishes of the family Perciliidae are endemic of this region and ideal cases to study potential implications of global warming given their endangered conservation status, small size, restricted range, and limited dispersal capacity in fragmented habitats. Here, we model the spatial distribution of habitats for Percilia irwini and P. gillissi under current (1970-2000) and future (2050-2080) climatic scenarios (SSP245, SSP585). We implement maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models adapted for stream networks using high-resolution datasets of selected geophysical and climatic variables. At present, both species inhabit relatively low-quality habitats. In the future (SSP585), suitable habitats for P. irwini are predicted to be reduced drastically (99%) with potential local extirpations in its northern range. Similarly, up to 62% of suitable habitats for P. gillissi would also be reduced in the future. Our study provides insights about assessing future threats and vulnerability of endemic, endangered, range-restricted, and small-bodied freshwater species in this region and elsewhere.}, }
@article {pmid38982176, year = {2024}, author = {Gebremedhn, H and Gebrewahid, Y and Haile, GG and Hadgu, G and Atsbha, T and Hailu, TG and Bezabih, G}, title = {Projecting the impact of climate change on honey bee plant habitat distribution in Northern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {15866}, pmid = {38982176}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Bees/physiology ; Ethiopia ; Animals ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change significantly affects the diversity, growth, and survival of indigenous plant species thereby influencing the nutrition, health and productivity of honey bees (Apis mellifera). Hypoestes forskaolii (Vahl) is one of the major honey bee plant species in Ethiopia's Tigray region. It is rich in pollen and nectar that typically provides white honey, which fetches a premium price in both local and inter-national markets. Despite its socio-economic and apicultural significance, the distribution of H. forskaolii has been declining, raising concerns regarding its conservation efforts. However, there is limited knowledge on how environmental and climatic factors affect its current distribution and response to future climate change. The study investigates the current and projected (the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) habitat distributions of H. forskaolii under three future climate change scenarios (ssp126, ssp245, and ssp585) using the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt). The results show that land use (50.1%), agro-ecology (28%), precipitation during the Driest Quarter (11.2%) and soil texture (6.1%) predominantly influence the distribution of H. forskaolii, collectively explaining 95.4% of the model's predictive power. Habitats rich in evergreen trees and mosaic herbaceous with good vegetation cover are identified as the most suitable for H. forskaolii. The spatial distribution of H. forskaolii is concentrated in the highlands and mid-highlands of the eastern and southern parts of Tigray, characterized by a colder temperature. Across the three climate change scenarios, the size of suitable habitat for H. forskaolii is projected to decrease over the four time periods studied. Predictions under the ssp585 scenario reveal alarming results, indicating a substantial decrease in the suitable habitat for H. forskaolii from 4.26% in the 2030s to 19.09% in the 2090s. Therefore, given the challenges posed by climate change, research efforts should focus on identifying and evaluating new technologies that can help the H. forskaolii species in adapting and mitigating the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38982053, year = {2024}, author = {Boakes, EH and Dalin, C and Etard, A and Newbold, T}, title = {Impacts of the global food system on terrestrial biodiversity from land use and climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {5750}, pmid = {38982053}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Food Supply ; Agriculture ; South America ; Methane/analysis ; }, abstract = {The global food system is a key driver of land-use and climate change which in turn drive biodiversity change. Developing sustainable food systems is therefore critical to reversing biodiversity loss. We use the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE to estimate the biodiversity impacts embedded within the global food system in 2011. Using models that capture regional variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity both to land use and climate change, we calculate the land-driven and greenhouse gas-driven footprints of food using two metrics of biodiversity: local species richness and rarity-weighted species richness. We show that the footprint of land area underestimates biodiversity impact in more species-rich regions and that our metric of rarity-weighted richness places a greater emphasis on biodiversity costs in Central and South America. We find that methane emissions are responsible for 70% of the overall greenhouse gas-driven biodiversity footprint and that, in several regions, emissions from a single year's food production are associated with global biodiversity loss equivalent to 2% or more of that region's total land-driven biodiversity loss. The measures we present are relatively simple to calculate and could be incorporated into decision-making and environmental impact assessments by governments and businesses.}, }
@article {pmid38981637, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {STRENGTHENED GLOBAL CAPACITIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH: WHO TRAINING IN MADRID.}, journal = {Neurosciences (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {212-213}, pmid = {38981637}, issn = {1319-6138}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *World Health Organization ; Global Health ; Spain ; }, }
@article {pmid38981546, year = {2024}, author = {Taylor, AK and Berke, MA and Koutsodendris, A}, title = {Climate change and human impacts on aquatic communities at Etoliko Lagoon in western Greece.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174590}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174590}, pmid = {38981546}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Etoliko Lagoon in western Greece has experienced extensive human modification since the 20th century, both on the surrounding land and in the aquatic environment. To examine human impacts and disentangle climatic from anthropogenic changes, we present a suite of biomarker records that span the past two centuries (~1790-2011). Specifically, we use terrigenous (n-alkanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and phytosterols) and aquatic (dinosterol, brassicasterol, cholesterol, and stigmasterol) biomarkers to document changes in nutrient inputs, combustion, and algal productivity. During most of the 19th and 20th centuries, aquatic communities respond to temperature, forced mainly by solar irradiance and volcanic activity, and precipitation, controlled largely by summer and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns that determine freshwater runoff. PAHs illustrate the acceleration of coal combustion during the 1800s, and declining concentrations since the 1950s correspond to the implementation of emission controls and reductions in rainfall that likely inhibited PAH transport. As human pressures increased in the late 1900s and water column anoxia grew, the absence of a clear human waste and eutrophication signal suggests that other factors also contributed to limited oxygen availability. Overall, environmental degradation of the late 20th and early 21st centuries is clear and can be attributed to a combination of especially arid conditions and human interferences that altered lagoon hydrography, trophic state, and aquatic community composition.}, }
@article {pmid38981269, year = {2024}, author = {Janizadeh, S and Kim, D and Jun, C and Bateni, SM and Pandey, M and Mishra, VN}, title = {Impact of climate change on future flood susceptibility projections under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios in South Asia using artificial intelligence algorithms.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {121764}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121764}, pmid = {38981269}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This study investigated the impact of climate change on flood susceptibility in six South Asian countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Bharat (India), Nepal, and Pakistan-under two distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-5.8, for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. To predict flood susceptibility, we employed three artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms: the K-nearest neighbor (KNN), conditional inference random forest (CIRF), and regularized random forest (RRF). Predictions were based on data from 2452 historical flood events, alongside climatic variables measured over monthly, seasonal, and annual timeframes. The innovative aspect of this research is the emphasis on using climatic variables across these progressively condensed timeframes, specifically addressing eight precipitation factors. The performance evaluation, employing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) metric, identified the RRF model as the most accurate, with the highest AUC of 0.94 during the testing phase, followed by the CIRF (AUC = 0.91) and the KNN (AUC = 0.86). An analysis of variable importance highlighted the substantial role of certain climatic factors, namely precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation during the wettest month, in the modeling of flood susceptibility in South Asia. The resultant flood susceptibility maps demonstrated the influence of climate change scenarios on susceptibility classifications, signalling a dynamic landscape of flood-prone areas over time. The findings revealed variable trends under different climate change scenarios and periods, with marked differences in the percentage of areas classified as having high and very high flood susceptibility. Overall, this study advances our understanding of how climate change affects flood susceptibility in South Asia and offers an essential tool for assessing and managing flood risks in the region.}, }
@article {pmid38977719, year = {2024}, author = {Lim, C and Kang, JH and Bayartogtokh, B and Bae, YJ}, title = {Climate change will lead to range shifts and genetic diversity losses of dung beetles in the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {15639}, pmid = {38977719}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2022R1A2C1009024//National Research Foundation of Korea/ ; }, mesh = {*Coleoptera/genetics/classification/physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Genetic Variation ; *Desert Climate ; Mongolia ; Biodiversity ; Phylogeography ; Haplotypes ; Grassland ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Desertification is known to be a major threat to biodiversity, yet our understanding of the consequent decline in biodiversity remains insufficient. Here, we predicted climate change-induced range shifts and genetic diversity losses in three model dung beetles: Colobopterus erraticus, Cheironitis eumenes, and Gymnopleurus mopsus, distributed across the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe, areas known for desertification. Phylogeographic analyses of mitochondrial COI sequences and species distribution modeling, based on extensive field investigations spanning 14 years, were performed. Species confined to a single biome were predicted to contract and shift their distribution in response to climate change, whereas widespread species was predicted to expand even if affected by range shifts. We indicated that all species are expected to experience significant haplotype losses, yet the presence of high singleton frequencies and low genetic divergence across geographic configurations and lineages mitigate loss of genetic diversity. Notably, Cheironitis eumenes, a desert species with low genetic diversity, appears to be the most vulnerable to climate change due to the extensive degradation in the Gobi Desert. This is the first study to predict the response of insects to desertification in the Gobi Desert. Our findings highlight that dung beetles in the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe might experience high rates of occupancy turnover and genetic loss, which could reshuffle the species composition.}, }
@article {pmid38975189, year = {2024}, author = {Atchadé, MN and Nougbodé, H}, title = {Statistical investigation on the relationship between climate change, food availability, agricultural productivity, and economic expansion.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {e32520}, pmid = {38975189}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study examined the connections between Benin's economic expansion, food production, agricultural productivity, and climate change. Using yearly statistics between 1961 and 2021, and R software version 4.2.2, we aim to: (1) Analyze how agricultural added value affects economic expansion; (2) analyze the effects of food production and temperature lagged values on economic growth; (3) investigate the different causality relationships between food production, temperature variation, agricultural added value and economic growth. To achieve these goals, statistical and econometric techniques such as Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality framework were employed. The ARDL model verifies that there is a positive correlation between economic growth and the added value of agriculture based on empirical data. In addition, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model highlights the favorable impact of lagged food production values and the adverse effect of temperature fluctuations on economic growth. Granger causality analysis, employing the Toda-Yamamoto approach, unveils unidirectional links between food production and economic growth, as well as between temperature variation and agricultural added value. Interestingly, the study comes to the conclusion that there are no direct causal links between economic expansion and agricultural growth or between economic growth and temperature variance. Notably, bidirectional causality is established between livestock production and both economic growth and agricultural added value. These insights have significant implications for understanding climate change impacts on agriculture and suggest the need for adapted strategies to mitigate climate effects. Future research could focus on evaluating existing policies, exploring social and economic impacts, investigating market dynamics, and utilizing integrated assessment modeling to inform decision-making and foster sustainable economic growth in Benin's agricultural sector.}, }
@article {pmid38974250, year = {2023}, author = {Tumwine, JK}, title = {Editorial: Infections, non-communicable diseases, and reproductive health issues in a world beset by conflict and climate change.}, journal = {African health sciences}, volume = {23}, number = {4}, pages = {i-iv}, pmid = {38974250}, issn = {1729-0503}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology ; *Reproductive Health ; Armed Conflicts ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid38973578, year = {2024}, author = {Alagador, D}, title = {Dependence of Europe's most threatened mammals on movement to adapt to climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e14315}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.14315}, pmid = {38973578}, issn = {1523-1739}, support = {LA/P/0121/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; UIDB/05183/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; UIDP/05183/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; 101060429//HORIZON EUROPE Research and Innovation Programme/ ; }, abstract = {Current rates of climate change and gloomy climate projections confront managers and conservation planners with the need to integrate climate change into already complex decision-making processes. Predicting and prioritizing climatically stable areas and the areas likely to facilitate adaptive species' range adjustments are important stages in maximizing conservation outcomes and rationalizing future land management. I determined, for the most threatened European terrestrial mammal species, the spatial adaptive trajectories (SATs) of highest expected persistence up to 2080. I devised simple spatial network indices for evaluation of species in those SATs: total persistence; proportion of SATs that offer in situ adaptation (i.e., stable refugia); number of SATs converging in a site; and relationship between SAT convergence and persistence and protected areas, the Natura 2000 and Emerald networks, and areas of low human disturbance. I compared the performance of high-persistence SATs with a scenario in which each species remained in the areas with the best climatic conditions in the baseline period. The 1000 most persistence SATs for each of the 39 species covered one fifth of Europe. The areas with the largest adaptive potential (i.e., high persistence, stability, and SAT convergence) did not always overlap for all the species. Predominantly, these regions were located in southwestern Europe, Central Europe, and Scandinavia, with some occurrences in Eastern Europe. For most species, persistence in the most climatically suitable areas during the baseline period was lower than within SATs, underscoring their reliance on adaptive movements. Importantly, conservation areas (particularly protected areas) covered only minor fractions of species persistence among SATs, and hubs of spatial climate adaptation (i.e., areas of high SAT convergence) were seriously underrepresented in most conservation areas. These results highlight the need to perform analyses on spatial species' dynamics under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38972805, year = {2024}, author = {Dilger, AE and Meiklejohn, DA and Bent, JP and Tummala, N and Bergmark, RW and Lalakea, ML}, title = {Climate change and environmental sustainability in otolaryngology: A state-of-the-art review.}, journal = {The surgeon : journal of the Royal Colleges of Surgeons of Edinburgh and Ireland}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.surge.2024.06.007}, pmid = {38972805}, issn = {1479-666X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has been identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the greatest existing threat to human health. Given the direct exposure of the upper aerodigestive system to pollutants, patients in otolaryngology are at high risk for increased disease burden in the setting of climate change and worsening air quality. Given this and the environmental impact of surgical care, it is essential for surgeons to understand their role in addressing climate health through quality-driven clinical initiatives, education, advocacy, and research.<br><br>METHODS: A state-of-the-art review was performed of the existing literature on the otolaryngologic health impacts of climate change and environmental sustainability efforts in surgery with specific attention to studies in otolaryngology - head and neck surgery.<br><br>FINDINGS: Climate variables including heat and air pollution are associated with increased incidence of allergic rhinitis, chronic rhinosinusitis and head and neck cancer. A number of studies have shown that sustainability initiatives in otolaryngology are safe and provide direct cost benefit.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Surgeons have the opportunity to lead on climate health and sustainability to address the public health burden of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38972184, year = {2024}, author = {Verlicchi, P and Grillini, V and Maffini, F and Benini, A and Mari, M and Casoni, R}, title = {A proposed methodology to evaluate the influence of climate change on drinking water treatments and costs.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {121726}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121726}, pmid = {38972184}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Drinking water (DW) production treatments can be affected by climate change, in particular intense rainfall events, having an impact on the availability and quality of the water source. The current study proposes a methodology for the evaluation of the costs of the different treatment steps for surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW), through the analysis and quantification of the main cost items. It provides the details to count for strong variations in the key quality parameters of inlet water following severe rainfalls (namely turbidity, iron, manganese, and E. coli). This methodology is then applied to a large drinking water treatment plant (DWTP) in Italy, which treats both SW, around 70 %, and GW, around 30%. It discusses the overall DW production costs (from 7.60 c€/m[3] to 10.43 c€/m[3]) during the period 2019-2021 and analyzes the contributions of the different treatment steps in water and sludge trains. Then it focuses on the effects on the treatments of significant variations in SW turbidity (up to 1863 NTU) due to intense rainfalls, and on the daily costs of DW with respect to the average (baseline) costs evaluated on the annual basis. It emerges that, when SW has low turbidity levels, the energy-based steps have the biggest contribution on the costs (final pumping 22 % for SW and 10 % for GW, withdrawal 15 % and 14 %, respectively), whereas at very high turbidity levels, sludge greatly increases, and its treatment and disposal costs become significant (up to 14 % and 50 %). Efforts are being made to adopt the best strategies for the management of DWTPs in these adverse conditions, with the aim to guarantee potable water and optimize water production costs. A mitigation measure consists of increasing GW withdrawal up to the authorized flow rate, thus reducing SW withdrawal. In this context, the study is completed by discussing the potential upgrading of the DWTP by only treating GW withdrawn from riverbank filtration. The DW production cost would be 7.76 c€/m[3], which is lower than that seen for the same year (2021) with the current plant configuration (8.32 c€/m[3]).}, }
@article {pmid38972071, year = {2024}, author = {Aliaga-Samanez, A and Romero, D and Murray, K and Segura, M and Real, R and Olivero, J}, title = {Potential climate change effects on the distribution of urban and sylvatic dengue and yellow fever vectors.}, journal = {Pathogens and global health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1080/20477724.2024.2369377}, pmid = {38972071}, issn = {2047-7732}, abstract = {Climate change may increase the risk of dengue and yellow fever transmission by urban and sylvatic mosquito vectors. Previous research primarily focused on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. However, dengue and yellow fever have a complex transmission cycle involving sylvatic vectors. Our aim was to analyze how the distribution of areas favorable to both urban and sylvatic vectors could be modified as a consequence of climate change. We projected, to future scenarios, baseline distribution models already published for these vectors based on the favorability function, and mapped the areas where mosquitoes' favorability could increase, decrease or remain stable in the near (2041-2060) and distant (2061-2080) future. Favorable areas for the presence of dengue and yellow fever vectors show little differences in the future compared to the baseline models, with changes being perceptible only at regional scales. The model projections predict dengue vectors expanding in West and Central Africa and in South-East Asia, reaching Borneo. Yellow fever vectors could spread in West and Central Africa and in the Amazon. In some locations of Europe, the models suggest a reestablishment of Ae. aegypti, while Ae. albopictus will continue to find new favorable areas. The results underline the need to focus more on vectors Ae. vittatus, Ae. luteocephalus and Ae. africanus in West and Central sub-Saharan Africa, especially Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, and northern Democratic Republic of Congo; and underscore the importance of enhancing entomological monitoring in areas where populations of often overlooked vectors may thrive as a result of climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid38971982, year = {2024}, author = {Muhlfeld, CC and Cline, TJ and Finstad, AG and Hessen, DO and Perrin, S and Thaulow, J and Whited, D and Vøllestad, LA}, title = {Climate change vulnerability of Arctic char across Scandinavia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {e17387}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17387}, pmid = {38971982}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center/ ; //University of Oslo, Department of Biosciences/ ; //U.S. Fulbright Specialist Program/ ; }, mesh = {Scandinavian and Nordic Countries ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Trout/physiology ; *Lakes ; *Ecosystem ; Arctic Regions ; Esocidae/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is anticipated to cause species to shift their ranges upward and poleward, yet space for tracking suitable habitat conditions may be limited for range-restricted species at the highest elevations and latitudes of the globe. Consequently, range-restricted species inhabiting Arctic freshwater ecosystems, where global warming is most pronounced, face the challenge of coping with changing abiotic and biotic conditions or risk extinction. Here, we use an extensive fish community and environmental dataset for 1762 lakes sampled across Scandinavia (mid-1990s) to evaluate the climate vulnerability of Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), the world's most cold-adapted and northernly distributed freshwater fish. Machine learning models show that abiotic and biotic factors strongly predict the occurrence of Arctic char across the region with an overall accuracy of 89 percent. Arctic char is less likely to occur in lakes with warm summer temperatures, high dissolved organic carbon levels (i.e., browning), and presence of northern pike (Esox lucius). Importantly, climate warming impacts are moderated by habitat (i.e., lake area) and amplified by the presence of competitors and/or predators (i.e., northern pike). Climate warming projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario indicate that 81% of extant populations are at high risk of extirpation by 2080. Highly vulnerable populations occur across their range, particularly near the southern range limit and at lower elevations, with potential refugia found in some mountainous and coastal regions. Our findings highlight that range shifts may give way to range contractions for this cold-water specialist, indicating the need for pro-active conservation and mitigation efforts to avoid the loss of Arctic freshwater biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid38971356, year = {2024}, author = {Murage, P and Macintyre, LH and Heaviside, C and Vardoulakis, S and Neven, F and Ruksana, RH and Hajat, S}, title = {Future temperature-related mortality in the UK under climate change scenarios: impact of population ageing and bias-corrected climate projections.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {119565}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119565}, pmid = {38971356}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Exposure to heat and cold poses a serious threat to human health. In the UK, hotter summers, milder winters and an ageing population will shift how populations experience temperature-related health burdens. Estimating future burdens can provide insights on the drivers of temperature-related health effects and removing biases in temperature projections is an essential step to generating these estimates, however, the impact of various methods of correction is not well examined.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a detailed health impact assessment by estimating mortality attributable to temperature at a baseline period (2007-2018) and in future decades (2030s, 2050s and 2070s). Epidemiological exposure-response relationships were derived for all England regions and UK countries, to quantify cold and heat risk, and temperature thresholds where mortality increases. UK climate projections 2018 (UKCP18)were bias-corrected using three techniques: correcting for mean bias (shift or SH), variability (bias-correction or BC) and extreme values (quantile mapping or QM). These were applied in the health impact assessment, alongside consideration of population ageing and growth to estimate future temperature-related mortality.<br><br>FINDINGS: In the absence of adaptation and assuming a high-end emissions scenario (RCP8.5), annual UK temperature-related mortality is projected to increase, with substantial differences in raw vs. calibrated projections for heat-related mortality, but smaller differences for cold-related mortality. The BC approach gave an estimated 29 deaths per 100,000 in the 2070s, compared with 50 per 100,000 using uncorrected future temperatures. We also found population ageing may exert a bigger impact on future mortality totals than the impact from future increases in temperature alone. Estimating future health burdens associated with heat and cold is an important step towards equipping decision-makers to deliver suitable care to the changing population. Correcting inherent biases in temperature projections can improve the accuracy of projected health burdens to support health protection measures and long-term resilience planning.}, }
@article {pmid38971238, year = {2024}, author = {Cantonati, M and Armanini, DG and Demartini, D and Papatheodoulou, A and Bilous, OP and Colombo, F and Angeli, N and Stancheva, R and Dörflinger, G and Manoylov, KM}, title = {Has climate change over the last ten years caused a banalisation of diatom communities in Cypriot streams?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174495}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174495}, pmid = {38971238}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To unveil possible changes in diatom communities in Cypriot streams over the last ten years or so, we selected samples from the years 2020, 2021, and 2022 for the "recent" dataset (N = 119) and samples from the years 2010 and 2011 for the "historical" dataset (N = 108). Biotic homogenization has become a truly global phenomenon. Here we show that, over the last ten years, in response to increased water temperature, conductivity, and discharge variability due to climate-change, Cypriot stream diatom communities include a higher number of trivial (= widespread, tolerant, and opportunistic), aerial, and thermophilic species, have reduced β-diversity and increased nestedness. Moreover, IndVal analysis shows that indicator species from the historical dataset were characteristic, often relatively rare species, while the indicators of the recent dataset were a group of typical trivial, eutraphentic, and thermophilic species. As is almost always the case, the diatom communities we studied were subjected to multiple stressors, often affecting them in opposite ways. Besides the increase in trivial species, the reduction in β-diversity, and the rise in nestedness mentioned above, the diatom assemblages we studied also showed an increase in α-diversity that could be due to a moderate reduction in nutrients in several sites. High-ecological-integrity ecosystems, such as springs, waterfalls, and dripping rock-walls, in particular springs that were shown to be excellent hydrologic refugia in climates heavily affected by climate change, and the stream sites close to them should be carefully protected, as they can be refugia for sensitive and characteristic species that can recolonize the adjacent streams after adverse climatic events.}, }
@article {pmid38970635, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, X and Sadiq, M and Chien, F and Ngo, QT and Nguyen, AT and Trinh, TT}, title = {Retraction Note: Testing role of green financing on climate change mitigation: Evidences from G7 and E7 countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-024-34268-9}, pmid = {38970635}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid38969658, year = {2024}, author = {Li, C and Liu, Y and Pan, L}, title = {A study of impact of climate change on the U.S. stock market as exemplified by the NASDAQ 100 index constituents.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {15468}, pmid = {38969658}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {This paper employs an innovative event study methodology to demonstrate the impact of climate change on the NASDAQ index from the unique perspective of extreme weather events. This is achieved through the application of the event study methodology to a total of 526 biological, climatic, geological, hydrological, and meteorological disasters of climate change occurring in the U.S. during the period of 2000-2019. The results of the study demonstrate that: ① it can be generally observed that the five dimensions of climate change have a significant impact on stock returns. ② Empirical evidence indicates that the impact of different climate change dimensions on the return rate of stocks from NASDAQ stocks varies. In contrast, the biological and hydrological dimensions have a significantly negative impact on the return rate of stocks from the NASDAQ index, while the climate dimension has a significantly positive impact on the return rate of stocks from the NASDAQ index. ③ From the perspective of time, the impact of the five dimensions of climate change on the stock yield exhibits certain non-linear characteristics. This can be observed in the phenomenon of shock reversal, which occurs before and after the event.}, }
@article {pmid38969635, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, J and Michalski, JR and Wang, Z and Gao, WS}, title = {Atmospheric oxidation drove climate change on Noachian Mars.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {5648}, pmid = {38969635}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {7004-21G//Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee (RGC, UGC)/ ; R5043-19//Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee (RGC, UGC)/ ; 17306623//Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee (RGC, UGC)/ ; 42241129//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 42302264//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Modern Mars is bipolar, cold, and oxidizing, while early Mars was characterized by icy highlands, episodic warmth and reducing atmosphere. The timing and association of the climate and redox transitions remain inadequately understood. Here we examine the spatiotemporal distribution of the low surface iron abundance in the ancient Martian terrains, revealing that iron abundance decreases with elevation in the older Noachian terrains but with latitude in the younger Noachian terrains. These observations suggest: (a) low-temperature conditions contribute to surface iron depletion, likely facilitated by anoxic leaching through freeze-thaw cycles under a reducing atmosphere, and (b) temperature distribution mode shifted from elevation-dominant to latitude-dominant during the Noachian period. Additionally, we find iron leaching intensity decreases from the Early to Late Noachian epoch, suggesting a gradual atmospheric oxidation coupled with temperature mode transition during the Noachian period. We think atmospheric oxidation led to Mars becoming cold and bipolar in its early history.}, }
@article {pmid38969470, year = {2024}, author = {Hunter, RF and Garcia, L and Dagless, S and Haines, A and Penney, T and Clifford Astbury, C and Whiting, S and Wickramasinghe, K and Racioppi, F and Galea, G and Kluge, HHP}, title = {The emerging syndemic of climate change and non-communicable diseases.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e430-e431}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00112-8}, pmid = {38969470}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology ; *Syndemic ; Global Health ; }, }
@article {pmid38969469, year = {2024}, author = {Fears, R and Pongsiri, M and McGrath, PF}, title = {Climate change adaptation for health: using case study systems-based approaches to formulating solutions and guiding policy.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e428-e429}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00111-6}, pmid = {38969469}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Health Policy ; Global Health ; }, }
@article {pmid38969357, year = {2024}, author = {Smith, R}, title = {A thought experiment: what should be our priorities when we finally "declare war" on climate change and the destruction of nature.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {386}, number = {}, pages = {q1502}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q1502}, pmid = {38969357}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid38969318, year = {2024}, author = {Han, Y and Liu, Z and Chen, Y and Qi, J and Feng, P and Liu, L and Shi, J and Meng, L and Chen, Y}, title = {The Response of Non-Point Source Pollution to Climate Change in an Orchard-Dominant Coastal Watershed.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {119515}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119515}, pmid = {38969318}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {China is the largest global orchard distribution area, where high fertilization rates, complex terrain, and uncertainties associated with future climate change present challenges in managing non-point source pollution (NPSP) in orchard-dominant growing areas (ODGA). Given the complex processes of climate, hydrology, and soil nutrient loss, this study utilized an enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT-CO2) to investigate the impact of future climate on NPSP in ODGA in a coastal basin of North China. Our investigation focused on climate-induced variations in hydrology, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) losses in soil, considering three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Continuous changes in CO2 levels significantly influenced evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield in ODGA. Influenced by sandy soils, nitrate leaching through percolation was the principal pathway for N loss in the ODGA. Surface runoff was identified as the primary pathway for P loss. Compared to the reference period (1971-2000), under three future climate scenarios, the increase in precipitation of ODGA ranged from 15% to 28%, while the growth rates of P loss and surface runoff were the most significant, both exceeding 120%. Orchards in the northwest basin proved susceptible to nitrate leaching, while others were more sensitive to N and P losses via surface runoff. Implementing targeted strategies, such as augmenting organic fertilizer usage and constructing terraced fields, based on ODGA's response characteristics to future climate, could effectively improve the basin's environment.}, }
@article {pmid38969315, year = {2024}, author = {Neokye, EO and Wang, X and Thakur, KK and Quijón, PA and Nawaz, RA}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Oyster Aquaculture - Part II: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Measures.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {119535}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119535}, pmid = {38969315}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {The oyster aquaculture sector plays a major role in food security, providing a sustainable way to obtain food and livelihood for coastal and Island nations. Oysters are one of the preferred choices by aquaculturists because of their resilience to harsh climatic conditions. Nonetheless, climate change will continue to pose threats to its culture. Climate-induced hazards such as floods, storms, disease, and invasive species are some of the key factors limiting oyster production globally. A thriving aquaculture industry needs optimal conditions to maximize exploitation. Here, we continue with the review of the impacts of climate change on oyster aquaculture at the global scale, highlighting climate vulnerability assessment. We also propose a framework for modeling oyster responses to future climate scenarios. Furthermore, we explore the health implications of infected oysters on consumer's health. We also identify knowledge gaps and challenges for sustainable oyster production. Additionally, we document mitigation and adaptation measures and future research directions.}, }
@article {pmid38969104, year = {2024}, author = {Bousema, T and van Asten, SA and Ramjith, J and Buhl, M and Tack, B and Whitfield, KE and Friedrich, AW and Kantele, A}, title = {Transforming ESCMID in a time of climate change: a call for sustainable conferencing.}, journal = {Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cmi.2024.06.025}, pmid = {38969104}, issn = {1469-0691}, }
@article {pmid38968887, year = {2024}, author = {Sayegh, F}, title = {Leveraging emotional intelligence to foster proactive climate change adaptation: A study of engineering decision-making.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {365}, number = {}, pages = {121669}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121669}, pmid = {38968887}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change and development present significant challenges and complexities that require new solutions, wise choices, and multi-disciplinary integration. In this context, emotional intelligence (EI) plays a crucial role. However, traditional engineering education and practice overlook the importance of understanding and managing emotions. This research aims to determine the impact of EI as a tool to enhance proactive decision-making and implement sustainable measures within the engineering profession.The study makes three main research contributions. First, it confirms a positive relationship between EI and proactive sustainable decision-making among engineers. This means that engineers with high EI are more likely to consider the impacts of their decisions on various stakeholders and dimensions of sustainability. Second, it suggests that EI can enhance creativity and innovative thinking in engineering, helping engineers to develop effective solutions for challenges related to climate change. Third, the study advocates for incorporating EI training and assessment into engineering curriculums to foster a sustainable and ethical engineering culture. By improving EI, engineers can enhance their interpersonal skills, self-awareness, and emotional management, which in turn can significantly improve teamwork in addressing challenges related to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38968297, year = {2024}, author = {Filazzola, A and Imrit, MA and Fleck, A and Woolway, RI and Sharma, S}, title = {Declining lake ice in response to climate change can impact spending for local communities.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {e0299937}, pmid = {38968297}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Lakes ; *Ice Cover ; Humans ; Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; }, abstract = {Lake ice is an important socio-economic resource that is threatened by climate change. The cover and duration of lake ice are expected to decline as air temperatures warm in the coming decades, disrupting a previously reliable source of income for many activities dependent on lake ice. The economic consequences of climate-induced lake ice loss remain unexplored, creating a significant research gap. The purpose of this study was to quantify the monetary spending associated with lake ice and how climate change may impact that value. Using a series of General Circulation Models (GCMs), greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, and models for lake ice cover, we predicted changes in lake ice by the end of the 21st century for the Northern Hemisphere. We also synthesized examples of spending associated with lake ice activities and discussed the potential implications expected with declining ice cover. We found that lake ice will decrease in area by 44,000-177,000 km2 and shorten in duration by 13-43 days by 2100. Using 31 examples of revenue from lake ice, we found that lake ice generates spending of over USD 2.04 billion to local communities and economies. We also found that countries predicted to experience the greatest ice loss by the end of the century are those that currently have the largest GDP, highest greenhouse gas emissions, and are most dependent on freshwater withdrawal. Our findings confirm predicted losses in lake ice that are expected because of climate change and quantify some of the potential consequences for local communities. Here we highlight lake ice as another casualty of human-caused climate change that will have profound socio-economic implications.}, }
@article {pmid38967106, year = {2024}, author = {Cerutti-Pereyra, F and Drenkard, EJ and Espinoza, M and Finucci, B and Galván-Magaña, F and Hacohen-Domené, A and Hearn, A and Hoyos-Padilla, ME and Ketchum, JT and Mejía-Falla, PA and Moya-Serrano, AV and Navia, AF and Pazmiño, DA and Ramírez-Macías, D and Rummer, JL and Salinas-de-León, P and Sosa-Nishizaki, O and Stock, C and Chin, A}, title = {Vulnerability of Eastern Tropical Pacific chondrichthyan fish to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {e17373}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17373}, pmid = {38967106}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//United States Agency for International Development (USAID)/ ; //Instituto Polit&#xe9;cnico Nacional (COFAA and EDI)/ ; //Save Our Seas Foundation/ ; //Mark and Rachel Rohr Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Pacific Ocean ; Risk Assessment ; Ecosystem ; Fishes/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an environmental emergency threatening species and ecosystems globally. Oceans have absorbed about 90% of anthropogenic heat and 20%-30% of the carbon emissions, resulting in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, changes in ocean stratification and nutrient availability, and more severe extreme events. Given predictions of further changes, there is a critical need to understand how marine species will be affected. Here, we used an integrated risk assessment framework to evaluate the vulnerability of 132 chondrichthyans in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) to the impacts of climate change. Taking a precautionary view, we found that almost a quarter (23%) of the ETP chondrichthyan species evaluated were highly vulnerable to climate change, and much of the rest (76%) were moderately vulnerable. Most of the highly vulnerable species are batoids (77%), and a large proportion (90%) are coastal or pelagic species that use coastal habitats as nurseries. Six species of batoids were highly vulnerable in all three components of the assessment (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity). This assessment indicates that coastal species, particularly those relying on inshore nursery areas are the most vulnerable to climate change. Ocean warming, in combination with acidification and potential deoxygenation, will likely have widespread effects on ETP chondrichthyan species, but coastal species may also contend with changes in freshwater inputs, salinity, and sea level rise. This climate-related vulnerability is compounded by other anthropogenic factors, such as overfishing and habitat degradation already occurring in the region. Mitigating the impacts of climate change on ETP chondrichthyans involves a range of approaches that include addressing habitat degradation, sustainability of exploitation, and species-specific actions may be required for species at higher risk. The assessment also highlighted the need to further understand climate change's impacts on key ETP habitats and processes and identified knowledge gaps on ETP chondrichthyan species.}, }
@article {pmid38967105, year = {2024}, author = {Sudhakaran, G}, title = {Impact of climate change on the yield of medicinal plants in recent years.}, journal = {Natural product research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1080/14786419.2024.2372845}, pmid = {38967105}, issn = {1478-6427}, abstract = {Climate change significantly impacts the yield and quality of medicinal plants due to alterations in temperature, precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events. These changes affect the growth, secondary metabolite production, and geographical distribution of medicinal plants, leading to reduced yields and compromised medicinal properties. Adaptive strategies such as developing climate-resilient plant varieties, sustainable agricultural practices, and enhanced conservation efforts are essential to mitigate these effects. Increased research and collaborative efforts are necessary to safeguard these vital resources for future generations.}, }
@article {pmid38966109, year = {2024}, author = {de Meijer, F and Kimanthi, M and Cheruiyot, S and Muia, AM and Goga, D and Azamkhan Mohamed, S and Njoga, C and Gathu, C and Agoi, F and Nyamu, N and Shabani, J}, title = {Reimagining nutrition education for pregnant adolescents in the face of climate change: a community approach.}, journal = {BMJ nutrition, prevention &amp; health}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {151-159}, pmid = {38966109}, issn = {2516-5542}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To explore challenges with current nutrition education for teenage pregnant women in a drought-prone community in Kenya and to elicit the communities' suggestions on how to best adapt it in the face of climate change.<br><br>DESIGN: Nine serial focus group discussions (four with adolescents, two with their parents, two with community health volunteers and one with healthcare workers) were conducted on a purposively selected study population in Kaloleni, Kilifi County, Kenya. Data collection took place between March and November 2022, with a total of 73 participants. An inductive approach was used, and interpretive thematic coding was done as the primary analytic strategy to allow themes derived from participants' reflections.<br><br>RESULTS: First, participants reported that unpredictable rainfall patterns had affected nutrition intake and variety due to reduced yield from farmland, diseases in livestock and insufficient income. Second, participants reported barriers to accessing nutrition education, as it was mainly given in clinics and not targeted at adolescents or men. Third, they experienced challenges in applying nutrition education in daily life due to a mismatch between available foods and cultural practices. Recommendations for the future encompassed equipping individuals with practical cooking skills tailored to available nutrients, initiatives aimed at water conservation and addressing animal health concerns, enhancing accessibility through community-based training programmes and fostering collaborative efforts to ensure the provision of essential nutrients.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Food choices in Kilifi County are getting more limited due to unpredicted rainfall patterns. Therefore, a reorientation of nutrition education is needed in order to build resilience in the community. Strengthening community action, including developing skills to increase long-term local support, would be needed to ensure the adequate nutrition status of vulnerable groups like pregnant adolescent women.}, }
@article {pmid38965400, year = {2024}, author = {Martre, P and Dueri, S and Guarin, JR and Ewert, F and Webber, H and Calderini, D and Molero, G and Reynolds, M and Miralles, D and Garcia, G and Brown, H and George, M and Craigie, R and Cohan, JP and Deswarte, JC and Slafer, G and Giunta, F and Cammarano, D and Ferrise, R and Gaiser, T and Gao, Y and Hochman, Z and Hoogenboom, G and Hunt, LA and Kersebaum, KC and Nendel, C and Padovan, G and Ruane, AC and Srivastava, AK and Stella, T and Supit, I and Thorburn, P and Wang, E and Wolf, J and Zhao, C and Zhao, Z and Asseng, S}, title = {Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38965400}, issn = {2055-0278}, support = {EXC 2070 - 390732324//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation)/ ; }, abstract = {Increasing global food demand will require more food production[1] without further exceeding the planetary boundaries[2] while simultaneously adapting to climate change[3]. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes[4] to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and source traits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential-a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency, along with yield potential.}, }
@article {pmid38964402, year = {2024}, author = {Zhou, B and Zou, Q and Jiang, H and Yang, T and Zhou, W and Chen, S and Yao, H}, title = {A novel framework for predicting glacial lake outburst debris flows in the Himalayas amidst climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {946}, number = {}, pages = {174435}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174435}, pmid = {38964402}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The retreat of Himalayan glaciers and the expansion of glacial lakes due to global warming have increased the occurrence of glacial lake outburst debris flow (GLODF), posing a serious threat to downstream communities. However, there are gaps in understanding the changes in GLODF occurrence driven by climate change, which challenges disaster management and cross-border cooperation in the Himalayas. To consider this issue, our study presents a novel framework integrating environmental evolution, a process-driven indicator system, and a hybrid machine learning model to predict Himalayan GLODF occurrence in the 21st century. Our findings indicate ongoing temperature (0.27-0.60 °C/10a) and precipitation (1.30-5.00 %/10a) increases under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Meanwhile, Himalayan glaciers are projected to lose between 70 % and 86 % of their mass by 2100 compared to 2020. Additionally, 2722 ± 207 new glacial lakes are expected to emerge by 2100. GLODF occurrence probability index is anticipated to rise to 1.27-1.30 times the current levels, with the Western Himalayas and Indus basin as high-incidence areas. Currently and in the future, the China-Nepal border remains a hotspot for cross-border GLODF. Our framework offers valuable long-term insights into Himalayan GLODF occurrence trends in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38963428, year = {2024}, author = {Ichinose, T and Pan, Y and Yoshida, Y}, title = {Clothing color effect as a target of the smallest scale climate change adaptation.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38963428}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {18K04417//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/ ; }, abstract = {The purpose of this study is to understand a physical mechanism to determine the surface temperature of clothes in calm and fine conditions of outdoors. We observed surface temperatures of polo shirts of the same material and design but different colors. The shirts were placed in unshaded and well-ventilated outdoor, open spaces on sunny summer days. The maximum difference between dark green or black and white was more than 15 °C during calm, fine weather and was greatest when the solar radiation was strong. If the transmission of solar radiation energy through a shirt is ignored to calculate the absorption by the shirt, the difference in solar radiation absorption due to different colors is as much as 24% in the maximum, and if considered, we concluded that an absorption difference of 34% led to a temperature difference of 15℃. When we compared the brightness of the colors, we found that the albedo of both the visible and NIR bands explained why the red and green colors were so different with respect to the surface temperatures we observed. The reflection in the NIR bands was also an important determinant of the surface temperature. An additional experiment using masks showed that the temperature difference between white and black was almost eliminated at a wind speed of ~ 3 m/s. The color of clothing is therefore a target for small-scale adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38962450, year = {2024}, author = {Ciarlo', J and Giorgi, F}, title = {An increase in global daily precipitation records in response to global warming based on reanalysis and observations.}, journal = {Open research Europe}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {114}, pmid = {38962450}, issn = {2732-5121}, abstract = {Understanding trends in extreme precipitation events in the context of global warming is critical for assessing climate change impacts. This study employs a novel methodology developed by Giorgi and Ciarlo (2022) to analyze record-breaking daily precipitation events from 1980 to 2020, utilizing three reanalysis products (ERA5, MERRA-2, and JRA-55) and one global observation dataset (MSWEP). Our results indicate a consistent and statistically significant increase in record-breaking precipitation events globally, with variations across different latitude bands and between land and ocean areas. This trend is evident in all datasets, with the most substantial increases observed over oceans in ERA5 and over land in JRA and MERRA. Notably, the Southern Hemisphere shows mixed results, with some regions displaying negative trends. This study highlights the increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events, supporting the hypothesis of intensified hydrological cycles under a warming climate. Our findings enhance understanding of precipitation extremes and underscore the importance of regional analyses in climate impact studies. Future work could extend these findings to formal attribution studies linking observed trends directly to anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38960781, year = {2024}, author = {Otero González, A}, title = {Chronic kidney disease, dialysis and climate change.}, journal = {Nefrologia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.nefroe.2024.06.008}, pmid = {38960781}, issn = {2013-2514}, abstract = {Chronic Kidney Disease is a serious public health problem and in clear relation to Climate Change and ecosystem maintenance. Renal health is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and dialysis therapy (hemodialysis and PD) has a significant environmental footprint, conditioned by energy consumption and greenhouse gas production. In the last 50 years, people have changed ecosystems faster and more extensively than in any other period in human history. It is a consequence of ever-increasing demand for food, fresh water, fuel, industry, etc. and the result has been a substantial and largely irreversible loss of the diversity of life on Earth. Since 1979, human activities have caused the extinction of 60% of mammals, birds, fish and reptiles. There is an urgent need to adopt "Green Nephrology" measures by developing sustainable environmental solutions for the prevention and treatment of kidney diseases.}, }
@article {pmid38960189, year = {2024}, author = {San-Emeterio, LM and Hidalgo-Galvez, MD and de la Rosa, JM and Pérez-Ramos, I and González-Pérez, JA}, title = {Impact of future scenarios of climate change on lignin dynamics in soil: A case study in a Mediterranean savannah.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174317}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174317}, pmid = {38960189}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Lignin is an abundant and recalcitrant biopolymer of major relevance as soil organic matter (SOM) component playing a significant role in its stabilization. In this work, a factorial field experiment was established, where three climatic treatments (W, warming; D, drought; W + D, warming + drought), mimicking future climate change scenarios were installed over five years in a Mediterranean savannah "dehesa", accounting for its landscape diversity (under the tree canopy and in open grassland). A combination of analytical pyrolysis (Py-GC/MS) and the study of biogeochemical proxies based on lignin monomers is used for the direct detection of lignin-derived phenols and to infer possible shifts in lignin dynamics in soil. A total of 27 main lignin-derived methoxyphenols were identified, exhibiting different patterns and proportions, mainly driven by the effect of habitat, hence biomass inputs to SOM. An accelerated decomposition of lignin moieties -(exhibited by higher LG/LS and Al/K + Ac ratios)- is particularly exacerbated by the effect of all climatic treatments. There is also an overall effect on increasing lignin oxidation of side chain in syringyl units, especially under the tree canopy due to the alteration in biomass degradation and potential stimulation of enzyme activities. Conversely, in open grassland these effects are slower since the microbial community is expected to be already adapted to harsher conditions. Our findings suggests that climate change-related temperature and soil moisture deviations impact soil lignin decomposition in dehesas threatening this productive Mediterranean agroecosystem and affecting the mechanism of soil carbon storage.}, }
@article {pmid38960178, year = {2024}, author = {de Andrade Costa, D and Bayissa, Y and Villas-Boas, MD and Maskey, S and Junior, JL and Silva Neto, AJ and Srinivasan, R}, title = {Water availability and extreme events under climate change scenarios in an experimental watershed of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174417}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174417}, pmid = {38960178}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change has diversified negative implications on environmental sustainability and water availability. Assessing the impacts of climate change is crucial to enhance resilience and future preparedness particularly at a watershed scale. Therefore, the goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water balance components and extreme events in Piabanha watershed in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. In this study, extreme climate change scenarios were developed using a wide array of global climate models acquired from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Reports (AR6). Two extreme climate change scenarios, DryHot and WetCool, were integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model to evaluate their impacts on the hydrological dynamics in the watershed. The baseline SWAT model was first developed and evaluated using different model performance evaluation metrics such as coefficient of determination (R[2]), Nash-Sutcliffe (NSC), and Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient (KGE). The model results illustrated an excellent model performance with metric values reaching 0.89 and 0.64 for monthly and daily time steps respectively in the calibration (2008 to 2017) and validation (2018 to 2023) periods. The findings of future climate change impacts assessment underscored an increase in temperature and shifts in precipitation patterns. In terms of streamflow, high-flow events may experience a 47.3 % increase, while low-flows could see an 76.6 % reduction. In the DryHot scenario, annual precipitation declines from 1657 to 1420 mm, with evapotranspiration reaching 54 % of precipitation, marking a 9 % rise compared to the baseline. Such changes could induce water stress in plants and lead to modifications on structural attributes of the ecosystem recognized as the Atlantic rainforest. This study established boundaries concerning the effects of climate change and highlighted the need for proactive adaptation strategies and mitigation measures to minimize the potential adverse impacts in the study watershed.}, }
@article {pmid38960170, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, K and Kinouchi, T and Tan, R and Heng, S and Chhuon, K and Zhao, W}, title = {Unraveling urban hydro-environmental response to climate change and MCDA-based area prioritization in a data-scarce developing city.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174389}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174389}, pmid = {38960170}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change leads to more frequent and intense heavy rainfall events, posing significant challenges for urban stormwater management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing cities of developing countries with constrained infrastructure. However, the quantitative assessment of urban stormwater, encompassing both its volume and quality, in these regions is impeded due to the scarcity of observational data and resulting limited understanding of drainage system dynamics. This study aims to elucidate the present and projected states of urban flooding, with a specific emphasis on fecal and organic contamination caused by combined sewer overflow (CSO). Leveraging a hydrological model incorporating physical and biochemical processes validated against invaluable observational data, we undertake simulations to estimate discharge, flood volume, and concentrations of suspended solids (SS), Escherichia coli (E. coli), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) within the drainage channel network of Phnom Penh City, Cambodia. Alterations in flood volumes, and pollutant concentrations and loads in overflow under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) for extreme rainfall events are projected. Furthermore, we employ a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to evaluate flood risk, incorporating diverse indicators encompassing physical, social, and ecological dimensions. Our results demonstrate the exacerbating effects of climate change on flood volumes, expansion of flooded areas, prolonged durations of inundation, elevated vulnerability index, and heightened susceptibility to pollutant contamination under both scenarios, underscoring increased risks of flooding and fecal contamination. Spatial analysis identifies specific zones exhibiting heightened vulnerability to flooding and climate change, suggesting priority zones for investment in flood mitigation measures. These findings provide crucial insights for urban planning and stormwater management in regions with limited drainage infrastructure, offering essential guidance for decision-making in locales facing similar challenges.}, }
@article {pmid38959782, year = {2024}, author = {Hinz, H and Terrados, J and Moranta, J and Reñones, O and Ruiz-Frau, A and Catalán, IA}, title = {A risk-based approach to the analysis of potential climate change effects on fish communities associated to Posidonia oceanica in the Mediterranean.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {199}, number = {}, pages = {106618}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106618}, pmid = {38959782}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {The Mediterranean is recognized as a climate change hotspot, with ongoing warming anticipated to impact its habitats and their associated fish fauna. Among these habitats, the seagrass Posidonia oceanica stands out as a foundational species, critical for the stability of coastal fish communities. However, our understanding of climate change consequences on P. oceanica associated fish fauna to date remains limited in part due to a lack of long-term data. This study aimed to highlight potential climate change risks to fish species associated with Posidonia, integrating data on species' thermal envelopes with their habitat and depth preferences into a climate change risk index. Specifically, 9 species, including three pipefish and several wrasse species of the genus Symphodus, emerged as being at higher potential risk from climatic change. A historical time series from Palma Bay (Balearic Islands, Spain), spanning 45 years and providing clear evidence of warming, was employed to evaluate trends in species abundance and occurrence in relation to their relative climate risk score. While certain high-risk species like Symphodus cinereus and Diplodus annularis showed an increase in abundance over time, others, such as the pipefish Syngnathus acus, Syngnathus typhle and Nerophis maculatus experienced declines. The absence of observed declines in some high-risk species could be attributed to several factors, such as acclimation, adaptation, or unmet response thresholds. However, this does not rule out the potential for future changes in these species. Factors such as increased nutrient influx due to growing human populations and changes in fishing regulations may also have contributed to the observed trends. These findings underscore the intricate interplay of environmental and anthropogenic factors and accentuate the pressing need for sustained, long-term data acquisition to fathom the implications of climate change on this highly important marine ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid38956339, year = {2024}, author = {Christensen, J}, title = {Climate change is worsening the housing crisis - we must tackle the two together.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {631}, number = {8019}, pages = {10}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-02183-1}, pmid = {38956339}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Housing/supply &amp; distribution ; }, }
@article {pmid38955455, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Experts warn of serious health impacts from climate change for pregnant women, children, and older people.}, journal = {Saudi medical journal}, volume = {45}, number = {7}, pages = {754-755}, pmid = {38955455}, issn = {1658-3175}, }
@article {pmid38953744, year = {2024}, author = {Maloney, SK and Kearney, MR and Mitchell, D}, title = {Indices of human heat stress in times of climate change.}, journal = {Acta physiologica (Oxford, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e14196}, doi = {10.1111/apha.14196}, pmid = {38953744}, issn = {1748-1716}, }
@article {pmid38953539, year = {2024}, author = {Rida, J and Bouchriti, Y and Ait Haddou, M and Achbani, A and Sine, H and Serhane, H}, title = {Meteorological factors and climate change impact on asthma: A systematic review of epidemiological evidence.}, journal = {The Journal of asthma : official journal of the Association for the Care of Asthma}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-19}, doi = {10.1080/02770903.2024.2375272}, pmid = {38953539}, issn = {1532-4303}, abstract = {Objective: This systematic review aimed to investigate the epidemiological data about meteorological factors and climate change (CC) impact on asthma.Data Sources: A search was performed using three databases (Web of Science, Science Direct, and MEDLINE) for all relevant studies published from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2022.Study Selections: This systematic review complied with the PRISMA document's requirements, including studies related to meteorological factors and CC impact on asthma. The search included studies published in English or French language, and was based on title, abstract, and complete text. Documents not meeting inclusion requirements were excluded.Results: We identified 18 studies published in the last five years that were eligible for inclusion in this review. We found that these studies concerned European, Asian, American, and Oceanic cities. Extreme variations in temperature, humidity, wind speed, exceptional incidents like hurricanes, cold and heat waves, and seasonal shifts were strongly correlated with the worsening of asthmatic symptoms, particularly in childhood. In addition, excessive concentrations of air pollutants and aeroallergens were linked to pediatric asthma emergency hospital admissions.Conclusions: A significant association between the consequences of CC and asthma in adults particularly in children has been demonstrated. Future research should quantify the impact of global change in climate regarding the aeroallergens' distribution in terms of geography and time. It is also necessary to research the impact of air pollution on asthmatic health, like sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and particles having an aerodynamic diameter lower than 2.5 µm (PM2.5).}, }
@article {pmid38953058, year = {2024}, author = {Harrison, J and Williams, P and Raynes-Greenow, C and Fairlie, S and Quynh Nga, PT and Ton, TN and Pratt, A and Thanh, HN and Payne, D and McBrearty, C and Pasupathy, D}, title = {The impact of climate change on infant mortality in Viet Nam: identifying a need for higher quality accessible data.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {47}, number = {}, pages = {101113}, pmid = {38953058}, issn = {2666-6065}, }
@article {pmid38951496, year = {2024}, author = {Dimitrova, A and Dimitrova, A and Mengel, M and Gasparrini, A and Lotze-Campen, H and Gabrysch, S}, title = {Temperature-related neonatal deaths attributable to climate change in 29 low- and middle-income countries.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {5504}, pmid = {38951496}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Infant, Newborn ; *Developing Countries/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Infant Mortality/trends ; Infant ; Female ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Male ; Cold Temperature/adverse effects ; Temperature ; Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology ; Health Surveys ; }, abstract = {Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures increases the risk of neonatal mortality, but the contribution of climate change to temperature-related neonatal deaths is unknown. We use Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data (n = 40,073) from 29 low- and middle-income countries to estimate the temperature-related burden of neonatal deaths between 2001 and 2019 that is attributable to climate change. We find that across all countries, 4.3% of neonatal deaths were associated with non-optimal temperatures. Climate change was responsible for 32% (range: 19-79%) of heat-related neonatal deaths, while reducing the respective cold-related burden by 30% (range: 10-63%). Climate change has impacted temperature-related neonatal deaths in all study countries, with most pronounced climate-induced losses from increased heat and gains from decreased cold observed in countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Future increases in global mean temperatures are expected to exacerbate the heat-related burden, which calls for ambitious mitigation and adaptation measures to safeguard the health of newborns.}, }
@article {pmid38950449, year = {2024}, author = {Newton, AC and Creissen, HE and Erreguerena, IA and Havis, ND}, title = {Disease Management in Regenerative Cropping in the Context of Climate Change and Regulatory Restrictions.}, journal = {Annual review of phytopathology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-phyto-121423-042037}, pmid = {38950449}, issn = {1545-2107}, abstract = {Regenerative agriculture as a term and concept has gained much traction over recent years. Many farmers are convinced that by adopting these principles they will be able to address the triple crisis of biodiversity loss, climate change, and food security. However, the impact of regenerative agriculture practices on crop pathogens and their management has received little attention from the scientific community. Significant changes to cropping systems may result in certain diseases presenting more or less of a threat. Shifts in major diseases may have significant implications regarding optimal integrated pest management (IPM) strategies that aim to improve profitability and productivity in an environmentally sensitive manner. In particular, many aspects of regenerative agriculture change risk levels and risk management in ways that are central to effective IPM. This review outlines some of the challenges, gaps, and opportunities in our understanding of appropriate approaches for managing crop diseases in regenerative cropping systems.}, }
@article {pmid38948454, year = {2024}, author = {Lee, JS and Park, JH and Choi, YJ and Shin, HD}, title = {Emergence and Potential Spread of Rust Disease on Wisteria floribunda and Corydalis incisa Influenced by Climate Change in Korea.}, journal = {Mycobiology}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {160-171}, pmid = {38948454}, issn = {1229-8093}, abstract = {Global climate change influences the emergence, spread, and severity of rust diseases that affect crops and forests. In Korea, the rust diseases that affect Wisteria floribunda and its alternate host Corydalis incisa are rapidly spreading northwards. Through morphological, molecular, phylogenetic, and pathogenicity approaches, Neophysopella kraunhiae was identified as the causal agent, alternating between the two host plants to complete its life cycle. Using the maximum entropy model (Maxent) under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), the results of this study suggest that by the 2050s, C. incisa is likely to extend its range into central Korea owing to climate shifts, whereas the distribution of W. floribunda is expected to remain unchanged nationwide. The generalized additive model revealed a significant positive correlation between the presence of C. incisa and the incidence of rust disease, highlighting the role that climate-driven expansion of this alternate host plays in the spread of N. kraunhiae. These findings highlight the profound influence of climate change on both the distribution of a specific plant and the disease a rust fungus causes, raising concerns about the potential emergence and spread of other rust pathogens with similar host dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid38947948, year = {2024}, author = {Bianco, C and Egamberdieva, D and Balestrini, R and Taranto, F}, title = {Editorial: Omics techniques to optimize plant-microbe interactions under climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1423421}, pmid = {38947948}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid38947909, year = {2024}, author = {Provenzi, L and Billeci, L and Wright, C and Xu, Z}, title = {Editorial: Climate change challenge in pediatric psychology.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1439041}, pmid = {38947909}, issn = {1664-1078}, }
@article {pmid38947511, year = {2024}, author = {Cui, Q and Lei, YL and Jia, ZK and Wang, Y and Li, Y}, title = {Path analysis for controlling climate change in global aviation.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {6}, pages = {110126}, pmid = {38947511}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {The aviation industry's emissions have had a significant impact on global climate change. This study focuses on carbon emission trading schemes, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), and hydrogen energy, as vital means for the aviation industry to reduce emissions. To evaluate the climate effects of global routes under four scenarios (24 sub-scenarios) until 2100, this study proposes the Aviation-FAIR (Aviation-Finite Amplitude Impulse Response) method. The findings reveal that while CO2 emissions and concentrations are significant, other emissions, such as N2O and CH4, have a greater effective radiative forcing (ERF) and contribute significantly to climate change. Moreover, SAFs are more effective in mitigating airline pollutant emissions than relying solely on carbon trading schemes. The effectiveness of hydrogen fuel cells may be hindered by technical limitations compared to hydrogen turbine engines. The findings of this study provide reference for the global aviation industry to adopt emission reduction measures.}, }
@article {pmid38947458, year = {2024}, author = {Gokcimen, T and Das, B}, title = {Exploring climate change discourse on social media and blogs using a topic modeling analysis.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {e32464}, pmid = {38947458}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most pressing global issues of our time, and understanding public perception and awareness of the topic is crucial for developing effective policies to mitigate its effects. While traditional survey methods have been used to gauge public opinion, advances in natural language processing (NLP) and data visualization techniques offer new opportunities to analyze user-generated content from social media and blog posts. In this study, a new dataset of climate change-related texts was collected from social media sources and various blogs. The dataset was analyzed using BERTopic and LDA to identify and visualize the most important topics related to climate change. The study also used sentence similarity to determine the similarities in the comments written and which topic categories they belonged to. The performance of different techniques for keyword extraction and text representation, including OpenAI, Maximal Marginal Relevance (MMR), and KeyBERT, was compared for topic modeling with BERTopic. It was seen that the best coherence score and topic diversity metric were obtained with OpenAI-based BERTopic. The results provide insights into the public's attitudes and perceptions towards climate change, which can inform policy development and contribute to efforts to reduce activities that cause climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38947353, year = {2024}, author = {Boafo, YA and Ohemeng, FNA and Ayivor, J and Ayitiah, JA and Yirenya-Tawiah, D and Mensah, A and Datsa, C and Annang, TY and Adom, L}, title = {Unraveling diarrheal disease knowledge, understanding, and management practices among climate change vulnerable coastal communities in Ghana.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {1352275}, pmid = {38947353}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Ghana ; *Diarrhea/epidemiology ; Female ; Male ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Middle Aged ; Focus Groups ; Sanitation ; Hygiene ; Family Characteristics ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Diarrheal disease is a global public health concern, particularly in low-income countries. In Ghana, widespread issues like inadequate sanitation, unsafe drinking water, malnutrition, and poor hygiene practices contribute to the high incidence of diarrhea. Climate change exacerbates these challenges by increasing the frequency and severity of conditions that spread diarrheal diseases. This study explores households' knowledge, understanding, and management practices for diarrhea in climate change-vulnerable coastal communities.<br><br>METHODS: The study is set in Ghana's central (Mumford, Opetekwei) and eastern (Anyako, Anyanui-Atiteti) coastlines. Using a cross-sectional study design, a structured questionnaire was administered to randomly sampled households (n = 419) to collect quantitative data. The study collected qualitative data from focus group discussions (n = 8), with groups separated into men and women, key informant interviews, and observations of food, water, and sanitation conditions across the studied communities.<br><br>RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The study found significant variations between the studied communities and socio-demographic variables except for the respondents' gender. Multivariate regression analyses identified significant associations between socio-demographic variables (especially gender and educational status) and perceptions of diarrhea causes. The most used first management action against diarrhea is 'over-the-counter drugs', followed by home-made traditional remedies. Significant differences were observed in the usage of management practices across the studied communities. Trust, affordability, and availability were identified as the main factors influencing households' use of approved pharmaceutical drugs and traditional herbal remedies for managing behavior, with significant differences being observed across communities. The study recommends a multi-sectoral approach, including improved access to regularly flowing, safe water and sanitation facilities, education on preventing diarrhea, and adequate healthcare services. Community-based interventions such as promoting good hygiene practices at homes and community settings such as schools, lorry parks, funeral grounds, and recreational areas can also effectively reduce the burden of diarrhea.}, }
@article {pmid38945977, year = {2024}, author = {Hussein, SM and Ibrahim, BA}, title = {Knowledge and attitude of general population towards climate change and its impact on health in Ismailia Governorate, Egypt.}, journal = {The Journal of the Egyptian Public Health Association}, volume = {99}, number = {1}, pages = {15}, pmid = {38945977}, issn = {0013-2446}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Recently, climate change (CC) has garnered significant global attention. It has emerged as one of the most pressing environmental issues, resulting in a multitude of adverse impacts on human well-being and health. This study aims to assess the knowledge and attitude of the general population in Ismailia Governorate, Egypt, about CC and its impact on health, identify factors affecting the general population's knowledge about CC, and highlight methods to solve this problem.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out on the general population in Ismailia governorate, Egypt. A snowball sample of participants (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;150) was enrolled in the study by distributing an online Google form containing a structured self-administered questionnaire.<br><br>RESULTS: The participants had an average knowledge score of 27.42&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;14.42, with 60% considered knowledgeable. About 54% knew the main cause of CC. Around 75% were aware of the environmental impacts of CC, and 69.3% knew about the effects on human health. Based on the questionnaire's results, 76.7% of respondents believed that increasing afforestation helps in the mitigation of CC and 77.3% believed that governments bear the responsibility for CC. Approximately 85% regarded increasing green spaces as an effective method to reduce CC on the country level. On an individual level, usage of energy-saving products was the most-favored option chosen by participants to help in reducing CC (82%). Gender, education level, and place of residence were significant factors affecting knowledge about CC.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Over 50%&#xa0;of the participants were knowledgeable about CC and the role of human activities in CC. Therefore, public awareness campaigns utilizing prominent media such as television and social media should be launched to improve CC literacy. These campaigns should be more directed at males, and people with lower levels of education and who live in rural areas in Ismailia Governorate, Egypt.}, }
@article {pmid38945811, year = {2024}, author = {Swamy, L and Munro, CL}, title = {Climate Change and the Intensive Care Unit.}, journal = {American journal of critical care : an official publication, American Association of Critical-Care Nurses}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {241-244}, doi = {10.4037/ajcc2024761}, pmid = {38945811}, issn = {1937-710X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Intensive Care Units/organization &amp; administration ; *Climate Change ; Critical Care ; }, }
@article {pmid38945249, year = {2024}, author = {Magyari, EK and Szabó, Z and Falus, G and Móra, A and Szalai, Z and Hamerlik, L and Tóth, M and Farkas, &#xc1; and Pomogyi, P and Somogyi, B and Vörös, L and Korponai, J}, title = {Large shallow lake response to anthropogenic stressors and climate change: Missing macroinvertebrate recovery after oligotrophication (Lake Balaton, East-Central Europe).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174191}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174191}, pmid = {38945249}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {East-Central Europe's largest shallow lake, Balaton, experienced strong eutrophication in the 1970-80s, followed by water quality improvement and oligotrophication by 2010 CE. Recently however, repeated cyanobacterial blooms occurred and warned that internal P-recycling can act similarly to external P load, therefore we need a better understanding of past water level (WL) and trophic changes in the lake. In this study we discuss the last 500-yr trophic, WL and habitat changes of the lake using paleoecological (chironomids, pollen) and geochemical (sediment chlorophyll, TOC, TS, TN, C/H ratio, major and trace element) methods. We demonstrate that the most intensive and irreversible change in the macroinvertebrate fauna occurred during the period of economic boom between the First and Second World War (~1925-1940 CE), when large-scale built-in and leisure use of the lake has intensified. At that time, the Procladius-Microchironomus-Stempellina dominated community transformed to Procladius-Chironomus plumosus-type-Microchironomus community that coincided with land use changes, intensified erosion and water-level regulation in the lake with the maintenance of year-round high WL. This was followed by the impoverishment and population size decrease of the chironomid fauna and Procladius dominance since 1940 CE, without any recovery after 1994 CE despite the ongoing oligotrophication. Accelerated rate of change and turnover of the fauna was connected to an increase in the benthivorous fish biomass and eutrophication. The basin lost almost completely its once characteristic Stempellina species between 1927 and 1940 CE due to trophic level increase and seasonal anoxia in the Szemes Basin. Reference conditions for ecosystem improvement were assigned to 1740-1900 CE. We conclude that in spite of the ongoing oligotrophication, the re-establishment of the Procladius-Microchironomus-Stempellina assemblage is hampered, and requires fish population regulation.}, }
@article {pmid38944311, year = {2024}, author = {Tran, TN and Lakshmi, V}, title = {Enhancing human resilience against climate change: Assessment of hydroclimatic extremes and sea level rise impacts on the eastern shore of Virginia, United States.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174289}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174289}, pmid = {38944311}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrological systems is crucial for developing adaptive strategies in water resources management. In this work, we quantify the future climate impacts on hydroclimatic extremes in the risk-prone, coastal, 15-m-above-sea-level Eastern Shore of Virginia (ESVA) region, utilizing the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Assessment Report 6 (AR6) and General Circulation Models (GCMs). In addition, we incorporate historical data on demographics and disasters, land use land cover (LULC), Landsat imagery, and projected sea level rise (SLR) to better understand and highlight the correlation between hydroclimatic extremes and societal components in this region. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Interquartile Range (IQR) method have been used to evaluate the intensity and frequency of projected climatic extremes, in which SLR projections under different greenhouse gas emission pathways are temporally and spatially quantified. Our findings include (1) a trend towards wetter conditions is found with an increase in flood events and up to an 8.9 % rise in the severity of flood peaks compared to the 2003-2020 period; (2) current coastal high-risk regions, identified using historical data for natural disasters, demographics, and LULC, are projected to be more susceptible to future climate impacts; and (3) low-lying coastal towns and regions are identified as currently highly vulnerable to coastal and SLR-induced flooding and are projected to become even more susceptible by 2100. This is the first effort that provides valuable scientific insights into anticipated shifts in future climate patterns, essential for natural hazards prevention in ESVA. It highlights the need for authorities and decision-makers to plan and implement adaptive strategies and sustainable policies for the ESVA region and other coastal areas across the United States.}, }
@article {pmid38944308, year = {2024}, author = {Falk, MT and Hagsten, E}, title = {Probability and severity of climate change threats to natural world heritage sites vary across site specifics and over time.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174291}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174291}, pmid = {38944308}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study contributes a first comparison of current and potential threats to Natural World Heritage Sites from climate change, as assessed by experts, when site and location characteristics (size, year of inscription to the World Heritage list, continent, climate zone and kind of site) are controlled for. The probability of a threat as well as its intensity is analysed. Another novelty lies in the use of data from the IUCN Conservation Outlook assessment, covering all 245 Natural and Mixed World Heritage Sites across the world for three points in time: 2014, 2017 and 2020. The threat of climate change is broadly defined and includes temperature extremes, rising temperatures, disappearing glaciers, coral bleaching, droughts, desertification, and rising sea levels. Results based on a simultaneous Probit model with random effects show that the probability of actual and potential climate change threats increases over time, but with differences for size, kind of site and location. The probability that a threat is identified is highest for marine and coastal sites, and for those in Latin America, while it is significantly lower for sites on the African continent. Larger sites have a higher probability of being assessed as at risk and the severity of threats is found to be lower for recently inscribed sites. The rate at which the likelihood of a threat assessment increases is consistent for both current and future situations, while the probability of the most severe threat is larger for the current than the future period. A serious threat from climate change is assessed as highest for locations in the tropical monsoon (current period) or the tropical savannah climate (future period). Estimations also show that pure descriptive statistics or bivariate correlations may not correctly identify the risk or the dignity of a threat.}, }
@article {pmid38944274, year = {2024}, author = {Segoli, M and Kishinevsky, M and Harvey, JA}, title = {Climate change, temperature extremes, and impacts on hyperparasitoids.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {101229}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2024.101229}, pmid = {38944274}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change (ACC), including temperature extremes (TE), is having a major impact on insect physiology, phenology, behavior, populations, and communities. Hyperparasitoids (insects whose offspring develop in, or on, the body of a primary parasitoid host) are expected to be especially impacted by such effects due to their typical life history traits (e.g., low fecundity and slow development), small populations (being high on the food chain), and cascading effects mediated via lower trophic levels. We review evidence for direct and indirect temperature and climate-related effects mediated via plants, herbivores, and the primary parasitoid host species on hyperparasitoid populations, focusing on higher temperatures. We discuss how hyperparasitoid responses may feed back to the community and affect biological control programs. We conclude that despite their great importance, very little is known about the potential effects of climate change on hyperparasitoids and make a plea for additional studies exploring such responses.}, }
@article {pmid38941825, year = {2024}, author = {Bokharaeian, M and Toghdory, A and Ghoorchi, T}, title = {Effects of dietary curcumin nano-micelles on performance, biological responses, and thermal stress resilience in heat-stressed fattening lambs across varying temperature-humidity index conditions: Implications for climate change.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {123}, number = {}, pages = {103905}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2024.103905}, pmid = {38941825}, issn = {0306-4565}, abstract = {Heat stress poses a significant challenge to sheep farming in arid and semi-arid regions, impacting growth performance, health, and physiological responses. While sheep have innate mechanisms to manage heat stress, prolonged exposure impairs their performance and health. This study evaluated the influence of varying doses of Curcumin Nano-Micelle (CNM) on heat-stressed fattening lambs in northeastern Iran over three months, examining the relationship between CNM doses and growth performance, feeding behavior, physiological responses, immune function, and antioxidant status. Thirty-two crossbred male lambs were included in a completely randomized design with four treatments and eight replications. The experimental treatments were as follows: 1) CTRL: No dietary inclusion of CNM, (control group); 2) T20: Dietary inclusion of 20 mg of CNM per head per day; 3) T40: Dietary inclusion of 40 mg of CNM per head per day; and 4) T80: Dietary inclusion of 80 mg of CNM per head per day. The results revealed that dietary supplementation with 20 and 40 mg of CNM significantly improved live body weight, weight gain, average daily gain (ADG), and feed conversion ratio (FCR) compared to the control treatment. Regression analysis demonstrated quadratic models between growth performance parameters and the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI), indicating a correlation between CNM doses and the animals' responses to heat stress. Regarding eating behavior, CNM doses of 40 and 80 mg/day significantly reduced eating time while increasing ruminating time. Blood analysis indicated significant reductions in glucose levels across all treatments, with T40 significantly reducing both cholesterol and triglyceride (TG) levels. Additionally, CNM supplementation decreased serum malondialdehyde (MDA) levels and increased superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione peroxidase (GPx) activities, indicating enhanced antioxidant status. Physiological responses were influenced by CNM, notably reducing rectal temperature (RT), skin temperature (ST), respiration rate (RR), while pulse rate (PR) increased across various time intervals, particularly in the T80 group. This study demonstrates that CNM supplementation can enhance performance, physiological responses, and antioxidant status in heat-stressed fattening lambs, highlighting its potential to mitigate heat stress effects in sheep farming.}, }
@article {pmid38941468, year = {2024}, author = {Merlis, TM and Cheng, KY and Guendelman, I and Harris, L and Bretherton, CS and Bolot, M and Zhou, L and Kaltenbaugh, A and Clark, SK and Vecchi, GA and Fueglistaler, S}, title = {Climate sensitivity and relative humidity changes in global storm-resolving model simulations of climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {10}, number = {26}, pages = {eadn5217}, pmid = {38941468}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The climate simulation frontier of a global storm-resolving model (GSRM; or k-scale model because of its kilometer-scale horizontal resolution) is deployed for climate change simulations. The climate sensitivity, effective radiative forcing, and relative humidity changes are assessed in multiyear atmospheric GSRM simulations with perturbed sea-surface temperatures and/or carbon dioxide concentrations. Our comparisons to conventional climate model results can build confidence in the existing climate models or highlight important areas for additional research. This GSRM's climate sensitivity is within the range of conventional climate models, although on the lower end as the result of neutral, rather than amplifying, shortwave feedbacks. Its radiative forcing from carbon dioxide is higher than conventional climate models, and this arises from a bias in climatological clouds and an explicitly simulated high-cloud adjustment. Last, the pattern and magnitude of relative humidity changes, simulated with greater fidelity via explicitly resolving convection, are notably similar to conventional climate models.}, }
@article {pmid38941334, year = {2024}, author = {Crea, F}, title = {A focus on three hot topics: atrial fibrillation, obesity, and climate change.}, journal = {European heart journal}, volume = {45}, number = {24}, pages = {2105-2108}, doi = {10.1093/eurheartj/ehae380}, pmid = {38941334}, issn = {1522-9645}, mesh = {Humans ; *Atrial Fibrillation/therapy ; *Climate Change ; *Obesity/complications/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid38940665, year = {2024}, author = {Levett-Jones, T}, title = {Responding to climate change: the need for nursing leadership.}, journal = {Contemporary nurse}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1080/10376178.2024.2367665}, pmid = {38940665}, issn = {1839-3535}, }
@article {pmid38940101, year = {2024}, author = {Piotrowska-Weryszko, K and Weryszko-Chmielewska, E and Sulborska-Różycka, A and Konarska, A and Kubik-Komar, A}, title = {Global warming contributes to reduction in the intensity of Artemisia pollen seasons in Lublin, central-eastern Poland.}, journal = {Annals of agricultural and environmental medicine : AAEM}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {185-192}, doi = {10.26444/aaem/184726}, pmid = {38940101}, issn = {1898-2263}, mesh = {Poland ; *Pollen/chemistry ; *Artemisia/growth &amp; development ; *Seasons ; *Global Warming ; Allergens/analysis ; Temperature ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: Species of the genus Artemisia (Asteraceae) are weeds and ruderal plants growing in northern temperate regions of the world. Many of them are used in medicine and the cosmetic industry and for culinary purposes. Pollen grains of plants of this genus contain the most important aeroallergens.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: An aerobiological study conducted with the volumetric method in Lublin in 2001-2022. Trend lines for the season parameters were established. Spearman's correlation and stepwise regression analyses were carried out to determine relationships between various parameters of the pollen season and meteorological factors. PCA analysis was also carried out to visually compare the pollen seasons.<br><br>RESULTS: In Lublin, central-eastern Poland, the Artemisia pollen season lasted on average from the second ten days of July to the end of August, with its beginning depending on the temperature in April and May. The highest pollen concentrations were mainly recorded in the first half of August and were largely dependent on the mean temperature in June and July. The second peak in the pollen season recorded in September was associated with the presence of Artemisia annua pollen. Intense sunshine in June and the higher temperatures in June and July resulted in significant reduction in the Artemisia annual pollen sum (by 65%) over 22 years. Artemisia vulgaris is abundant in the Lublin region and contributes substantially to the amount of Artemisia pollen in the aeroplankton.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The downward trend in the amount of Artemisia pollen was a result of the increase in temperatures observed in the summer months, and the declining rainfall rates. The global warming effect is extremely unfavourable for plants of Artemisia vulgaris, as they require moist soil substrates for growth.}, }
@article {pmid38939737, year = {2023}, author = {Sakellari, M}, title = {Communicating climate change induced migration: the role of NGOs.}, journal = {Open research Europe}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {163}, pmid = {38939737}, issn = {2732-5121}, abstract = {This study addresses the underexplored issue of climate migration in non-governmental organisations (NGOs) communication, which is particularly relevant given the anticipated effects of climate change on migratory patterns. It paints a richer picture of NGOs' visual and textual discourses on climate migration and delves into the ways in which NGOs' depictions of climate migrants reinforce the 'us' and 'them' dichotomy that characterises policy and media circuits' wider debate on this issue. NGOs visual practises and textual narratives depoliticize climate migrants by underlining their otherness and propensity to bring social instability and disturbance. This raises doubts about the efficacy of climate migration-related online public education and policy advocacy efforts run by NGOs. This paper innovates as it encourages NGOs to create new ways of depicting climate refugees. It provides a framework for thinking about the role that NGOs could play in creating new ways of discussing climate migration.}, }
@article {pmid38938635, year = {2024}, author = {Duan, J and Liu, J and Huang, Z}, title = {Predicting the distribution pattern changes of dye plant habitats caused by climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1364481}, pmid = {38938635}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change has accelerated the habitat loss and fragmentation of wildlife. Dye plants of "Fengxiang dyeing" are important indigenous natural resources for traditional printing and dyeing craft in southwest China, is of practical and cultural importance for dozens of ethnic minorities. However, lack of the spatial distribution information of these plants has hampered holistic and efficient conservation management measures. We analyzed the potentially suitable areas of four dye plants (Liquidambar formosana, Strobilanthes cusia, Persicaria tinctoria and Indigofera tinctoria) necessary for "Fengxiang dyeing" based on their geographical distribution sites under different climatic situations using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results showed that temperature, precipitation and elevation were the most important factors affecting the suitable geographical areas of the four dye plants. Under the current climate conditions, the overlapping suitable habitat areas of the four plants were mainly in the four southern provinces of China, including Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong and Hainan. L. formosana was used as the base plant for combination with the other three plants under the two future climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585), and the overlapping suitable habitat areas of the obtained seven combination patterns were considered suitable for potential craft development. Five patterns showed an increase, while two patterns showed a decreasing trend with the increasing carbon emission. The prediction results showed that the overlapping suitable habitat center of the four plants will gradually move to the northeast, indicating that the overlapping suitable habitat area and craft distribution area will be changed. These results provide the basis for understanding the spatial distribution pattern changes of dye plants caused by climate change and establishing measures for protecting and developing printing and dyeing craft.}, }
@article {pmid38936043, year = {2024}, author = {Lee, JJ and Huang, Y and Yan, Y and Lui, YW and Ye, F}, title = {Integrating climate change and sustainability in nursing education.}, journal = {Nurse education today}, volume = {140}, number = {}, pages = {106290}, doi = {10.1016/j.nedt.2024.106290}, pmid = {38936043}, issn = {1532-2793}, abstract = {Climate change has led to negative health outcomes and significant challenges in healthcare delivery, calling for a transformative approach to nursing curricula. To effectively address the adverse health impacts of climate change, it is imperative to equip future nurses with the necessary knowledge and competency. This can be accomplished by enhancing awareness among nurse educators, integrating climate change contents into nursing curricula, adopting inter- and multi-disciplinary approaches, nurturing nursing practice skills, and cultivating advocacy and leadership competencies. Implementation of these strategies in nursing education can nurture future nurses who can confront the health challenges associated with climate change, empowering them to advocate for sustainable nursing practice and public health policies related to mitigating the impact of climate change on health. This comprehensive, practical, and leadership-focused strategy in nursing education ensures that future nurses are well-prepared to effectively address health issues caused by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38935627, year = {2024}, author = {Goudet, JM and Binte Arif, F and Owais, H and Uddin Ahmed, H and Ridde, V}, title = {Climate change and women's mental health in two vulnerable communities of Bangladesh: An ethnographic study.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {4}, number = {6}, pages = {e0002080}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pgph.0002080}, pmid = {38935627}, issn = {2767-3375}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most significant challenges humanity faces in the 21st century, with its health impacts being profoundly felt in the most vulnerable countries. However, the mental health impacts of climate change, particularly concerning social inequality and gender dynamics, are less documented in the Global South. This paper focuses on the impact of climate change on women's mental health in two vulnerable communities in Bangladesh. This study employed qualitative methods, including, in-depth interviews, and focus group discussions (FGDs). The communities were selected based on their vulnerability to climate change. A total of 80 participants were selected using snowball sampling, and 55 interviews and 6 FGDs were conducted. Women are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts on mental health due to their gender roles and responsibilities. Responsible for taking care of their families, they have to face additional challenges due to climate change impacts, such as increased workload, food insecurity, and social insecurity when their husband migrates to the cities for jobs. Women also face social and cultural barriers, which exacerbate their vulnerability to climate change impacts on mental health. Socioeconomic and environmental determinants appear to be embedded and lead to psychological suffering in relation to social roles and gender norms. Interventions should be designed to address the specific needs and challenges faced by women in these communities. Policymakers should take a gender-sensitive approach to address the mental health impacts of climate change in these communities. This study contributes to the growing body of research on the gendered impacts of climate change with a trajectory approach and provides insights for future research in this area.}, }
@article {pmid38935588, year = {2024}, author = {Weng, YM and Kavanaugh, DH and Schoville, SD}, title = {Evidence for admixture and rapid evolution during glacial climate change in an alpine specialist.}, journal = {Molecular biology and evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/molbev/msae130}, pmid = {38935588}, issn = {1537-1719}, abstract = {The pace of current climate change is expected to be problematic for alpine flora and fauna, as their adaptive capacity may be limited by small population size. Yet despite substantial genetic drift following post-glacial recolonization of alpine habitats, alpine species are notable for their success surviving in highly heterogeneous environments. Population genomic analyses demonstrating how alpine species have adapted to novel environments with limited genetic diversity remain rare, yet are important in understanding the potential for species to respond to contemporary climate change. In this study, we explored the evolutionary history of alpine ground beetles in the Nebria ingens complex, including the demographic and adaptive changes that followed the last glacier retreat. We first tested alternative models of evolutionary divergence in the species complex. Using millions of genome-wide SNP markers from hundreds of beetles, we found evidence that the Nebria ingens complex has been formed by past admixture of lineages responding to glacial cycles. Recolonization of alpine sites involved a distributional range shift to higher elevation, which was accompanied by a reduction in suitable habitat and the emergence of complex spatial genetic structure. We tested several possible genetic pathways involved in adaptation to heterogeneous local environments using genome scan and genotype-environment association approaches. From the identified genes, we found enriched functions associated with abiotic stress responses, with strong evidence for adaptation to hypoxia-related pathways. The results demonstrate that despite rapid demographic change, alpine beetles in the N. ingens complex underwent rapid physiological evolution.}, }
@article {pmid38935039, year = {2024}, author = {Yan, W and Du, L and Liu, H and Li, GY}, title = {Current and future invasion risk of tomato red spider mite under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toae140}, pmid = {38935039}, issn = {1938-291X}, support = {2023YFD1400600//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; SWU120048//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; }, abstract = {Tomato red spider mite Tetranychus evansi Baker and Pritchard (Acari: Tetranychidae) is a phytophagous pest that causes severe damage to Solanaceous plants worldwide, resulting in significant economic losses. In this study, the maximum entropy model was used to predict the potential current (1970-2000) and future (2021-2060) global distribution of the species based on its past occurrence records and high-resolution environmental data. The results showed that the mean values of the area under the curve were all >0.96, indicating that the model performed well. The three bioclimatic variables with the highest contributions were the coldest quarterly mean temperature (bio11), coldest monthly minimum temperature (bio6), and annual precipitation (bio12). A wide range of suitable areas was found across continents except Antarctica, both currently and in the future, with a much larger distribution area in South America, Africa, and Oceania (Australia), dominated by moderately and low suitable areas. A comparison of current and future suitable areas reveals a general trend of north expansion and increasing expansion over time. This study provides information for the prevention and management of this pest mite in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38934104, year = {2024}, author = {Alvero, R}, title = {Climate change and human health: a primer on what women's health physicians can do on behalf of their patients and communities.}, journal = {Current opinion in obstetrics &amp; gynecology}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {228-233}, doi = {10.1097/GCO.0000000000000958}, pmid = {38934104}, issn = {1473-656X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Women's Health ; Physician's Role ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To describe the current state of knowledge on the impact on climate change on women's health and to highlight opportunities for healthcare providers to serve as advocates and subject matter experts.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Healthcare providers are a uniquely respected voice in society but have not used this advantage to advocate for their communities and participate in mitigation, adaptation, and resiliency efforts on behalf of their patients and communities.<br><br>SUMMARY: Healthcare providers feel that climate change is real, is human caused, and is currently or will shortly negatively impact their patients. They feel unprepared to serve as leaders and advocates due to time limitations and a knowledge gap. Resources in the current climate movement can help close this gap.}, }
@article {pmid38933881, year = {2024}, author = {Johansson, E and Lan, Y and Olalekan, O and Kuktaite, R and Chawade, A and Rahmatov, M}, title = {Alien introgression to wheat for food security: functional and nutritional quality for novel products under climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in nutrition}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1393357}, pmid = {38933881}, issn = {2296-861X}, abstract = {Crop yield and quality has increased globally during recent decades due to plant breeding, resulting in improved food security. However, climate change and shifts in human dietary habits and preferences display novel pressure on crop production to deliver enough quantity and quality to secure food for future generations. This review paper describes the current state-of-the-art and presents innovative approaches related to alien introgressions into wheat, focusing on aspects related to quality, functional characteristics, nutritional attributes, and development of novel food products. The benefits and opportunities that the novel and traditional plant breeding methods contribute to using alien germplasm in plant breeding are also discussed. In principle, gene introgressions from rye have been the most widely utilized alien gene source for wheat. Furthermore, the incorporation of novel resistance genes toward diseases and pests have been the most transferred type of genes into the wheat genome. The incorporation of novel resistance genes toward diseases and pests into the wheat genome is important in breeding for increased food security. Alien introgressions to wheat from e.g. rye and Aegilops spp. have also contributed to improved nutritional and functional quality. Recent studies have shown that introgressions to wheat of genes from chromosome 3 in rye have an impact on both yield, nutritional and functional quality, and quality stability during drought treatment, another character of high importance for food security under climate change scenarios. Additionally, the introgression of alien genes into wheat has the potential to improve the nutritional profiles of future food products, by contributing higher minerals levels or lower levels of anti-nutritional compounds into e.g., plant-based products substituting animal-based food alternatives. To conclude, the present review paper highlights great opportunities and shows a few examples of how food security and functional-nutritional quality in traditional and novel wheat products can be improved by the use of genes from alien sources, such as rye and other relatives to wheat. Novel and upcoming plant breeding methods such as genome-wide association studies, gene editing, genomic selection and speed breeding, have the potential to complement traditional technologies to keep pace with climate change and consumer eating habits.}, }
@article {pmid38933180, year = {2024}, author = {Lichtblau, M and Reimann, L and Piccari, L}, title = {Pulmonary vascular disease, environmental pollution, and climate change.}, journal = {Pulmonary circulation}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {e12394}, pmid = {38933180}, issn = {2045-8932}, abstract = {Pollution and climate change constitute a combined, grave and pervasive threat to humans and to the life-support systems on which they depend. Evidence shows a strong association between pollution and climate change on cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and pulmonary vascular disease (PVD) is no exception. An increasing number of studies has documented the impact of environmental pollution and extreme temperatures on pulmonary circulation and the right heart, on the severity and outcomes of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension and chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (PH), on the incidence of pulmonary embolism, and the prevalence and severity of diseases associated with PH. Furthermore, the downstream consequences of climate change impair health care systems' accessibility, which could pose unique obstacles in the case of PVD patients, who require a complex and sophisticated network of health interventions. Patients, caretakers and health care professionals should thus be included in the design of policies aimed at adaptation to and mitigation of current challenges, and prevention of further climate change. The purpose of this review is to summarize the available evidence concerning the impact of environmental pollution and climate change on the pulmonary circulation, and to propose measures at the individual, healthcare and community levels directed at protecting patients with PVD.}, }
@article {pmid38932977, year = {2024}, author = {Zhao, J and Shao, W and Li, Y and Chen, H and Lin, Z and Wei, L}, title = {Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Capricornis milneedwardsii, a vulnerable mammal in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e11582}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.11582}, pmid = {38932977}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change significantly impacted on the survival, development, distribution, and abundance of living organisms. The Chinese serow Capricornis milneedwardsii, known as the "four unlike," is a Class II nationally protected species in China. In this study, we predicted the geographical suitability of C. milneedwardsii under current and future climatic conditions using MaxEnt. The model simulations resulted in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values above 0.9 for both current and future climate scenarios, indicating the excellent performance, high accuracy, and credibility of the MaxEnt model. The results also showed that annual precipitation (Bio12), slope, elevation, and mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio8) were the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. milneedwardsii, with contributions of 31.2%, 26.4%, 11%, and 10.3%, respectively. The moderately and highly suitable habitats were mainly located in the moist area of China, with a total area of 34.56 × 10[4] and 16.61 × 10[4] km[2], respectively. Under future climate change scenarios, the areas of suitability of C. milneedwardsii showed an increasing trend. The geometric center of the total suitable habitats of C. milneedwardsii would show the trend of northwest expansion and southeast contraction. These findings could provide a theoretical reference for the protection of C. milneedwardsii in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38932963, year = {2024}, author = {de Oliveira, K and Novaes, RLM and Weber, MM and Moratelli, R}, title = {Forecasting climate change impacts on neotropical Myotis: Insights from ecological niche models for conservation strategies.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e11419}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.11419}, pmid = {38932963}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Myotis originated during the Oligocene in Eurasia and has become one of the most diverse bat genera, with over 140 species. In the case of neotropical Myotis, there is a high degree of phenotypic conservatism. This means that the taxonomic and geographic limits of several species are not well understood, which constrains detailed studies on their ecology and evolution and how to effectively protect these species. Similar to other organisms, bats may respond to climate change by moving to different areas, adapting to new conditions, or going extinct. Ecological niche models have become established as an efficient and widely used method for interpolating (and sometimes extrapolating) species' distributions and offer an effective tool for identifying species conservation requirements and forecasting how global environmental changes may affect species distribution. How species respond to climate change is a key point for understanding their vulnerability and designing effective conservation strategies in the future. Thus, here, we assessed the impacts of climate change on the past and future distributions of two phylogenetically related species, Myotis ruber and Myotis keaysi. The results showed that the species are influenced by changes in temperature, and for M. ruber, precipitation also becomes important. Furthermore, M. ruber appears to have been more flexible to decreases in temperature that occurred in the past, which allowed it to expand its areas of environmental suitability, unlike M. keaysi, which decreased and concentrated these areas. However, despite a drastic decrease in the spatial area of environmental suitability of these species in the future, there are areas of potential climate stability that have been maintained since the Pleistocene, indicating where conservation efforts need to be concentrated in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38932480, year = {2024}, author = {Daniels, D and Berger Eberhardt, A}, title = {Climate change, microplastics, and male infertility.}, journal = {Current opinion in urology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/MOU.0000000000001201}, pmid = {38932480}, issn = {1473-6586}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Semen quality is on the decline. While the etiology is unknown, recent literature suggests there may be a relationship between climate change, environmental toxins and male fertility. This review relays new information regarding associations between our environment and male infertility.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Several recent studies have documented a negative association between heat stress and spermatogenesis, which suggests that climate change may be a factor in declining in sperm counts. The influence of particle pollution on spermatogenesis has also been recently investigated, with studies demonstrating a negative association. Another possible factor are microplastics, which have been posited to reduce sperm production. Recent animal studies have shown that microplastic exposure alters both adult sperm production and prenatal male genital development. The relationship between endocrine disrupting chemicals and male fertility remains an area of active study, with recent animal and human studies suggesting an association between these chemicals and male fertility.<br><br>SUMMARY: The etiology of the decline in male fertility over the past decades is yet unknown. However, changes in our environment as seen with climate change and exposure to pollutants and endocrine disrupting chemicals are proposed mechanisms for this decline. Further studies are needed to investigate this association further.}, }
@article {pmid38929344, year = {2024}, author = {Froldi, F and Lamastra, L and Trevisan, M and Moschini, M}, title = {Climate Change and Photochemical Ozone Creation Potential Impact Indicators of Cow Milk: A Comparison of Different Scenarios for a Diet Assessment.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani14121725}, pmid = {38929344}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {An estimate of the environmental impact of dairy farms in Northern Italy producing milk for hard cheese (protected designation of origin) has been obtained through a comprehensive life cycle assessment. The estimate focused on climate change (CC) and photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP) indicators, which were evaluated according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines and interpreted with the aid of the feeds' composition evaluated using near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (Foss NIR-System 5000) as well as with a diet evaluation according to the NRC (National Research Council) or the CNCPS (Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System) nutrient requirement modeling. Herds were classified into high-, mid-, and low-performing based on the daily milk yield per cow. A lower impact on indicators was observed as herd performance increased. The high-performing herds had a lower contribution from enteric fermentation (6.30 × 10[-1] kgCO2-eq), and the more milk that they produced allowed for a differentiation of CC from land use and transformation (2.39 × 10[-1] kgCO2-eq), compared to low-performing herds (3.66 × 10[-1] kgCO2-eq). Compared to the IPCC approach, the CC and POCP indicator estimates were reduced when addressing the feed's quality, particularly in mid- and high-performing herds. The results could be helpful in the dairy sector as they provide an insight into how diet quality affects the environmental impact of milk.}, }
@article {pmid38927332, year = {2024}, author = {Hao, Y and Dong, P and Wang, L and Ke, X and Hao, X and He, G and Chen, Y and Guo, F}, title = {Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hypericum perforatum under Climate Change Scenarios Using a Maximum Entropy Model.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology13060452}, pmid = {38927332}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {H. perforatum, as one of the Traditional Chinese Medicinal materials, possesses a variety of pharmacological activities and high medicinal value. However, in recent years, the wild resources of H. perforatum have been severely depleted due to global climate change and human activities, and artificial cultivation faces problems such as unstable yield and active ingredient content. This poses a serious obstacle to the development and utilization of its resources. Therefore, this experiment took H. perforatum as the research object and used 894 distribution records of H. perforatum and 36 climatic environmental factors, using the MaxEnt model and GIS technology to explore the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of H. perforatum. Additionally, by utilizing the principles of ecological niche theory, the potential suitable distribution regions of H. perforatum across past, present, and future timelines were predicted, which can ascertain the dynamics of its spatial distribution patterns and the trend of centroid migration. The results indicate that the main environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of H. perforatum are solar radiation in April (Srad4), solar radiation in September (Srad9), mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio9), solar radiation in November (Srad11), annual mean temperature (Bio1), and annual precipitation (Bio12). Under future climate scenarios, there is a remarkable trend of expansion in the suitable distribution areas of H. perforatum. The centroid migration indicates a trend of migration towards the northwest direction and high-altitude areas. These results can provide a scientific basis for formulating conservation and sustainable use management strategies for H. perforatum resources.}, }
@article {pmid38927320, year = {2024}, author = {Liao, W and Cao, L}, title = {Conservation and Evolution of Wildlife in the Context of Climate Change and Human Population Growth.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology13060440}, pmid = {38927320}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Global climate change results in variations in morphological traits, resource competition, species diversity, physiological activity, genetic diversity, habitat use, distributional range, and conservation status in organisms [...].}, }
@article {pmid38927316, year = {2024}, author = {Li, Q and Shao, W and Jiang, Y and Yan, C and Liao, W}, title = {Assessing Reptile Conservation Status under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology13060436}, pmid = {38927316}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {32300358//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32370456//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 22NSFSC0011//the Key Project of Natural Sciences Foundation of Sichuan Province/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate change drives variations in species distribution patterns and affects biodiversity, potentially increasing the risk of species extinction. Investigating the potential distribution range of species under future global climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management. In this study, we collected distributional data for 5282 reptile species to assess their conservation status based on distributional ranges using species distribution models. Our predictions indicate that the potential distribution ranges for over half of these species are projected to decrease under different scenarios. Under future scenarios with relatively low carbon emissions, the increase in the number of threatened reptiles is significantly lower, highlighting the importance of human efforts. Surprisingly, we identified some endangered species that are projected to expand their distribution ranges, underscoring the potential positive effects of climate change on some special species. Our findings emphasize the increased extinction risk faced by reptile species due to climate change and highlight the urgent need to mitigate the effects of habitat degradation and human activities on their potential distribution in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38926816, year = {2024}, author = {Habibi, P and Razmjouei, J and Moradi, A and Mahdavi, F and Fallah-Aliabadi, S and Heydari, A}, title = {Climate change and heat stress resilient outdoor workers: findings from systematic literature review.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {1711}, pmid = {38926816}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Heat Stress Disorders/prevention &amp; control/epidemiology ; Occupational Exposure/prevention &amp; control/adverse effects ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Female ; Male ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: Global warming has led to an increase in the number and intensity of extreme heat events, posing a significant threat to the health and safety of workers, especially those working outdoors, as they often have limited access to cooling strategies. The present systematic literature review (a) summarizes the current knowledge on the impacts of climate change on outdoor workers, (b) provides historical background on this issue, (c) explores factors that reduce and increase thermal stress resilience, (d) discusses the heat mitigation strategies, and (e) provides an overview of existing policy and legal frameworks on occupational heat exposure among outdoor workers.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this systematic review, we searched scientific databases including Scopus (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;855), Web of Science (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;828), and PubMed (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;202). Additionally, we identified relevant studies on climate change and heat-stress control measures through Google Scholar (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;116) using specific search terms. In total, we monitored 2001 articles pertaining to worker populations (men&#x2009;=&#x2009;2921; women&#x2009;=&#x2009;627) in various outdoor climate conditions across 14 countries. After full-text assessment, 55 studies were selected for inclusion, and finally, 29 eligible papers were included for data extraction.<br><br>RESULTS: Failure to implement effective control strategies for outdoor workers will result in decreased resilience to thermal stress. The findings underscore a lack of awareness regarding certain adaptation strategies and interventions aimed at preventing and enhancing resilience to the impact of climate change on heat stress prevalence among workers in outdoor tropical and subtropical environments. However, attractive alternative solutions from the aspects of economic and ecological sustainability in the overall assessment of heat stress resilience can be referred to acclimatization, shading, optimized clothing properties and planned breaks.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The integration of climate change adaptation strategies into occupational health programs can enhance occupational heat resilience among outdoor workers. Conducting cost-benefit evaluations of health and safety measures for thermal stress adaptation strategies among outdoor workers is crucial for professionals and policymakers in low- and middle-income tropical and subtropical countries. In this respect, complementary measures targeting hydration, work-rest regimes, ventilated garments, self-pacing, and mechanization can be adopted to protect outdoor workers. Risk management strategies, adaptive measures, heat risk awareness, practical interventions, training programs, and protective policies should be implemented in hot-dry and hot-humid climates to boost the tolerance and resilience of outdoor workers.}, }
@article {pmid38925782, year = {2024}, author = {Lemon, C and Rizer, N and Bradshaw, J}, title = {Climate Change.}, journal = {Emergency medicine clinics of North America}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {679-693}, doi = {10.1016/j.emc.2024.02.022}, pmid = {38925782}, issn = {1558-0539}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Emergency Medicine ; }, abstract = {As human-induced climate change warms the planet, its health impacts will affect all populations, but certain groups will be more vulnerable to its impacts. Given its role as a health care safety net, emergency medicine will play a crucial role in addressing these health conditions. Additionally, with its expertise in disaster medicine, interdisciplinary collaboration, and health care systems knowledge, emergency medicine has the potential to lead the health care sector's response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38925497, year = {2024}, author = {Ali, KJ and Ehsan, S and Tran, A and Haugstetter, M and Singh, H}, title = {Diagnostic Excellence in the Context of Climate Change: A Review.}, journal = {The American journal of medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.amjmed.2024.06.010}, pmid = {38925497}, issn = {1555-7162}, abstract = {Climate change is leading to a rise in heat-related illnesses, vector-borne diseases, and numerous negative impacts on patients' physical and mental health outcomes. Concurrently, healthcare contributes about 4.6% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Low-value care, such as overtesting and overdiagnosis, contributes to unnecessary emissions. In this review, we describe diagnostic excellence in the context of climate change and focus on two topics. First, climate change is affecting health, leading to the emergence of certain diseases, some of which are new, while others are increasing in prevalence and/or becoming more widespread. These conditions will require timely and accurate diagnosis by clinicians who may not be used to diagnosing them. Second, diagnostic quality issues, such as overtesting and overdiagnosis, contribute to climate change through unnecessary emissions and waste and should be targeted for interventions. We also highlight implications for clinical practice, research, and policy. Our findings call for efforts to engage healthcare professionals and policymakers in understanding the urgent implications for diagnosis in the context of climate change and reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to enhance both patient and planetary outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid38925398, year = {2024}, author = {de Souza, VV and Moreira, DP and Braz-Mota, S and Dos Santos, WV and Cotta, GC and da Silva Rodrigues, M and Nóbrega, RH and Corrêa, RDS and de Melo Hoyos, DC and Sanches, EA and Val, AL and Dos Santos Nassif Lacerda, SM}, title = {Simulated climate change and atrazine contamination can synergistically impair zebrafish testicular function.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174173}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174173}, pmid = {38925398}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Elements that interfere with reproductive processes can have profound impacts on population and the equilibrium of ecosystems. Global warming represents the major environmental challenge of the 21st century, as it will affect all forms of life in the coming decades. Another coexisting concern is the persistent pollution by pesticides, particularly the herbicide Atrazine (ATZ), which is responsible for a significant number of contamination incidents in surface waters worldwide. While it is hypothesized that climate changes will significantly enhance the toxic effects of pesticides, the actual impact of these phenomena remain largely unexplored. Here, we conducted a climate-controlled room experiment to assess the interactive effects of the projected 2100 climate scenario and environmentally realistic ATZ exposures on the reproductive function of male zebrafish. The gonadosomatic index significantly decreased in fish kept in the extreme scenario. Cellular alterations across spermatogenesis phases led to synergic decreased sperm production and increased germ cell sloughing and death. ATZ exposure alone or combined with climate change effects, disrupted the transcription levels of key genes involved in steroidogenesis, hormone signaling and spermatogenesis regulation. An additive modulation with decreased 11-KT production and increased E2 levels was also evidenced, intensifying the effects of androgen/estrogen imbalance. Moreover, climate change and ATZ independently induced oxidative stress, upregulation of proapoptotic gene and DNA damage in post-meiotic germ cell, but the negative effects of ATZ were greater at extreme scenario. Ultimately, exposure to simulated climate changes severely impaired fertilization capacity, due to a drastic reduction in sperm motility and/or viability. These findings indicate that the future climate conditions have the potential to considerably enhance the toxicity of ATZ at low concentrations, leading to significant deleterious consequences for fish reproductive function and fertility. These may provide relevant information to supporting healthcare and environmental managers in decision-making related to climate changes and herbicide regulation.}, }
@article {pmid38925333, year = {2024}, author = {Rosso, R}, title = {Catheter Ablation Guided by Intracardiac Echocardiography: The "ICE" Age During Global Warming.}, journal = {Heart rhythm}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.hrthm.2024.06.039}, pmid = {38925333}, issn = {1556-3871}, }
@article {pmid38924860, year = {2024}, author = {Regalado Chamorro, M and Medina Gamero, A}, title = {[Ecoanxiety: Impact of climate change on mental health].}, journal = {Semergen}, volume = {50}, number = {8}, pages = {102279}, doi = {10.1016/j.semerg.2024.102279}, pmid = {38924860}, issn = {1578-8865}, }
@article {pmid38924163, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, Y and Keating, A and Sourn, C}, title = {Measuring community disaster resilience for sustainable climate change adaptation: Lessons from time-series findings in rural Cambodia.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e12647}, doi = {10.1111/disa.12647}, pmid = {38924163}, issn = {1467-7717}, support = {NRF-2020S1A5A2A03043548//National Research Foundation of Korea/ ; }, abstract = {Donor-funded climate and disaster resilience programmes and projects aim to help build the capacities and resilience of communities. Measuring resilience is critical, therefore, in providing feedback, evidence, and accountability. This paper presents recent two-year time-series findings from an ongoing multi-partner academic and practical collaboration pertaining to a climate change adaption project with rural communities in Cambodia. To measure community resilience, the study used the Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities, which measures, using mixed methods, disaster resilience capacities across five key dimensions of resilience: human, social, physical, natural, and financial capitals. The study analysed and reported changes in these areas of resilience in the selected villages, generating insights into the strengths and weaknesses of flood resilience capacities in the region. This paper provides valuable guidance as to where investment can be most effective in different communities, confirming the usefulness of the tool in measuring resilience and assessing the effectiveness of the project concerned.}, }
@article {pmid38924103, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Correction to "Climate change and global health: A call to more research and more action".}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/all.16205}, pmid = {38924103}, issn = {1398-9995}, }
@article {pmid38923246, year = {2024}, author = {Coblentz, KE and Treidel, LA and Biagioli, FP and Fragel, CG and Johnson, AE and Thilakarathne, DD and Yang, L and DeLong, JP}, title = {A framework for understanding climate change impacts through non-compensatory intra- and interspecific climate change responses.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {e17378}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17378}, pmid = {38923246}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Population Dynamics ; Animals ; Population Growth ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Understanding and predicting population responses to climate change is a crucial challenge. A key component of population responses to climate change are cases in which focal biological rates (e.g., population growth rates) change in response to climate change due to non-compensatory effects of changes in the underlying components (e.g., birth and death rates) determining the focal rates. We refer to these responses as non-compensatory climate change effects. As differential responses of biological rates to climate change have been documented in a variety of systems and arise at multiple levels of organization within and across species, non-compensatory effects may be nearly ubiquitous. Yet, how non-compensatory climate change responses combine and scale to influence the demographics of populations is often unclear and requires mapping them to the birth and death rates underlying population change. We provide a flexible framework for incorporating non-compensatory changes in upstream rates within and among species and mapping their consequences for additional downstream rates across scales to their eventual effects on population growth rates. Throughout, we provide specific examples and potential applications of the framework. We hope this framework helps to enhance our understanding of and unify research on population responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38923190, year = {2024}, author = {Li, S and Delgado-Baquerizo, M and Ding, J and Hu, H and Huang, W and Sun, Y and Ni, H and Kuang, Y and Yuan, MM and Zhou, J and Zhang, J and Liang, Y}, title = {Intrinsic microbial temperature sensitivity and soil organic carbon decomposition in response to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {e17395}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17395}, pmid = {38923190}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2021YFD1900400//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; XDA28030102//Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 42377121//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; ISSASIP2201//Innovation Program of Institute of Soil Science/ ; 2022ZB467//Jiangsu Funding Program for Excellent Postdoctoral Talent/ ; //Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Soil Microbiology ; *Climate Change ; *Soil/chemistry ; *Carbon/analysis/metabolism ; China ; *Temperature ; Bacteria/metabolism/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Soil microbes are essential for regulating carbon stocks under climate change. However, the uncertainty surrounding how microbial temperature responses control carbon losses under warming conditions highlights a significant gap in our climate change models. To address this issue, we conducted a fine-scale analysis of soil organic carbon composition under different temperature gradients and characterized the corresponding microbial growth and physiology across various paddy soils spanning 4000 km in China. Our results showed that warming altered the composition of organic matter, resulting in a reduction in carbohydrates of approximately 0.026% to 0.030% from humid subtropical regions to humid continental regions. These changes were attributed to a decrease in the proportion of cold-preferring bacteria, leading to significant soil carbon losses. Our findings suggest that intrinsic microbial temperature sensitivity plays a crucial role in determining the rate of soil organic carbon decomposition, providing insights into the temperature limitations faced by microbial activities and their impact on soil carbon-climate feedback.}, }
@article {pmid38922917, year = {2024}, author = {Yoon, L and Ventrella, J and Marcotullio, P and Matte, T and Lane, K and Tipaldo, J and Jessel, S and Schmid, K and Casagrande, J and Elszasz, H}, title = {NPCC4: Climate change, energy, and energy insecurity in New York City.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.15117}, pmid = {38922917}, issn = {1749-6632}, abstract = {This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report provides an overview of energy trends in New York City and the State of New York, as well as accompanying challenges and barriers to the energy transition-with implications for human health and wellbeing. The link between energy trends and their impact on health and wellbeing is brought to the fore by the concept of "energy insecurity," an important addition to the NPCC4 assessment.}, }
@article {pmid38922909, year = {2024}, author = {Matte, T and Lane, K and Tipaldo, JF and Barnes, J and Knowlton, K and Torem, E and Anand, G and Yoon, L and Marcotullio, P and Balk, D and Constible, J and Elszasz, H and Ito, K and Jessel, S and Limaye, V and Parks, R and Rutigliano, M and Sorenson, C and Yuan, A}, title = {NPCC4: Climate change and New York City's health risk.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.15115}, pmid = {38922909}, issn = {1749-6632}, abstract = {This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report considers climate health risks, vulnerabilities, and resilience strategies in New York City's unique urban context. It updates evidence since the last health assessment in 2015 as part of NPCC2 and addresses climate health risks and vulnerabilities that have emerged as especially salient to NYC since 2015. Climate health risks from heat and flooding are emphasized. In addition, other climate-sensitive exposures harmful to human health are considered, including outdoor and indoor air pollution, including aeroallergens; insect vectors of human illness; waterborne infectious and chemical contaminants; and compounding of climate health risks with other public health emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence-informed strategies for reducing future climate risks to health are considered.}, }
@article {pmid38922857, year = {2024}, author = {da Silva, CRB and Diamond, SE}, title = {Local climate change velocities and evolutionary history explain multidirectional range shifts in a North American butterfly assemblage.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.14132}, pmid = {38922857}, issn = {1365-2656}, support = {DEB-1845126//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; MQRF0001197-2022//Macquarie University/ ; }, abstract = {Species are often expected to shift their distributions either poleward or upslope to evade warming climates and colonise new suitable climatic niches. However, from 18-years of fixed transect monitoring data on 88 species of butterfly in the midwestern United States, we show that butterflies are shifting their centroids in all directions, except towards regions that are warming the fastest (southeast). Butterflies shifted their centroids at a mean rate of 4.87 km year[-1]. The rate of centroid shift was significantly associated with local climate change velocity (temperature by precipitation interaction), but not with mean climate change velocity throughout the species' ranges. Species tended to shift their centroids at a faster rate towards regions that are warming at slower velocities but increasing in precipitation velocity. Surprisingly, species' thermal niche breadth (range of climates butterflies experience throughout their distribution) and wingspan (often used as metric for dispersal capability) were not correlated with the rate at which species shifted their ranges. We observed high phylogenetic signal in the direction species shifted their centroids. However, we found no phylogenetic signal in the rate species shifted their centroids, suggesting less conserved processes determine the rate of range shift than the direction species shift their ranges. This research shows important signatures of multidirectional range shifts (latitudinal and longitudinal) and uniquely shows that local climate change velocities are more important in driving range shifts than the mean climate change velocity throughout a species' entire range.}, }
@article {pmid38922080, year = {2024}, author = {Xiao, W and Zhang, Y and Chen, X and Sha, A and Xiong, Z and Luo, Y and Peng, L and Zou, L and Zhao, C and Li, Q}, title = {The Easily Overlooked Effect of Global Warming: Diffusion of Heavy Metals.}, journal = {Toxics}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/toxics12060400}, pmid = {38922080}, issn = {2305-6304}, support = {2023NSFSC1229//Sichuan Natural Science Foundation Project/ ; No. hklk202203//Open Foundation of Hebei Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Conservation/ ; }, abstract = {Since industrialization, global temperatures have continued to rise. Human activities have resulted in heavy metals being freed from their original, fixed locations. Because of global warming, glaciers are melting, carbon dioxide concentrations are increasing, weather patterns are shifting, and various environmental forces are at play, resulting in the movement of heavy metals and alteration of their forms. In this general context, the impact of heavy metals on ecosystems and organisms has changed accordingly. For most ecosystems, the levels of heavy metals are on the rise, and this rise can have a negative impact on the ecosystem as a whole. Numerous studies have been conducted to analyze the combined impacts of climate change and heavy metals. However, the summary of the current studies is not perfect. Therefore, this review discusses how heavy metals affect ecosystems during the process of climate change from multiple perspectives, providing some references for addressing the impact of climate warming on environmental heavy metals.}, }
@article {pmid38921371, year = {2024}, author = {Ali, I and Qaiser, H and Abdullah, R and Kaleem, A and Iqtedar, M and Iqbal, I and Chen, X}, title = {Prospective Roles of Extremophilic Fungi in Climate Change Mitigation Strategies.}, journal = {Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/jof10060385}, pmid = {38921371}, issn = {2309-608X}, abstract = {Climate change and the resultant environmental deterioration signify one of the most challenging problems facing humankind in the 21st century. The origins of climate change are multifaceted and rooted in anthropogenic activities, resulting in increasing greenhouse gases in the environment and leading to global warming and weather drifts. Extremophilic fungi, characterized by their exceptional properties to survive extreme habitats, harbor great potential in mitigating climate change effects. This review provides insight into the potential applications of extremophilic fungi in climate change mitigation strategies. They are able to metabolize organic biomass and degrade carbon compounds, thereby safely sequestering carbon and extenuating its release into the environment as noxious greenhouse gases. Furthermore, they possess extremozymes, which break down recalcitrant organic species, including lignocellulosic biomass and hydrocarbons. Enzymatic machinery equips these extremophilic fungi to perform the bioremediation of polluted environments. Extremophilic fungi can also be exploited for various biological interventions, such as biofuels, bioplastics, and other bioprocessing applications. However, these fungi characterize a valued but underexplored resource in the arsenal of climate change mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid38921152, year = {2024}, author = {Gao, H and Wei, X and Peng, Y and Zhuo, Z}, title = {Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Future Distribution of Paederus fuscipes Curtis, 1826, in China Based on the MaxEnt Model.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects15060437}, pmid = {38921152}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2022NSFSCO986//Sichuan Province Science and Technology Support Program/ ; 20A007//China West Normal University Support Program/ ; 20E051//China West Normal University Support Program/ ; 21E040//China West Normal University Support Program/ ; 22kA011//China West Normal University Support Program/ ; }, abstract = {Paederus fuscipes Curtis, 1826, belongs to the Coleoptera order, Staphylinidae family, and Paederus genus (Fabricius, 1775). It has a wide distribution and strong invasive and environmental adaptation capabilities. As a predatory natural enemy of agricultural and forestry pests, understanding its suitable habitat is crucial for the control of other pests. This study, for the first time, uses the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, combining known distribution information of P. fuscipes and climate environmental factors to predict the current and future suitable habitat distribution of this insect. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of P. fuscipes have been identified as mean diurnal range (mean of monthly (max temp-min temp)) (bio2), isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (*100) (bio3), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), temperature annual range (bio5-bio6) (bio7), mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of the wettest month (bio13), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) (bio15). The highly suitable areas for P. fuscipes in China are mainly distributed in the hilly regions of Shandong, the North China Plain, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain, with a total suitable area of 118.96 × 10[4] km[2], accounting for 12.35% of China's total area. According to future climate change scenarios, it is predicted that the area of highly and lowly suitable regions will significantly decrease, while moderately suitable regions will increase (except for the 2090s, SSP2-4.5 scenario). These research findings provide important theoretical support for pest control and ecological conservation applications.}, }
@article {pmid38921126, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, G and Liu, S and Xu, C and Wei, H and Guo, K and Xu, R and Qiao, H and Lu, P}, title = {Prediction of Potential Distribution of Carposina coreana in China under the Current and Future Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects15060411}, pmid = {38921126}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2022YFC3501502//the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 2021-I2M-1-031//the Innovation and Development of China Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Carposina coreana is an important pest of Cornus officinalis, distributed in China, Korea, and Japan. In recent years, its damage to C. officinalis has become increasingly serious, causing enormous economic losses in China. This study and prediction of current and future suitable habitats for C. coreana in China can provide an important reference for the monitoring, early warning, prevention, and control of the pest. In this study, the potential distributions of C. coreana in China under current climate and future climate models were predicted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with ArcGIS software. The distribution point data of C. coreana were screened using the buffer screening method. Nineteen environmental variables were screened using the knife-cut method and variable correlation analysis. The parameters of the MaxEnt model were optimized using the kuenm package in R software. The MaxEnt model, combined with key environmental variables, was used to predict the distribution range of the suitable area for C. coreana under the current (1971-2000) and four future scenarios. The buffer screening method screened data from 41 distribution points that could be used for modeling. The main factors affecting the distribution of C. coreana were precipitation in the driest month (Bio14), precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18), precipitation in the coldest quarter (Bio19), the standard deviation of seasonal variation of temperature (Bio4), minimum temperature in the coldest month (Bio6), and average temperature in the coldest quarter (Bio11). The feature class (FC) after the kuenm package optimization was a Q-quadratic T-threshold combination, and the regularization multiplier (RM) was 0.8. The suitable areas for C. coreana under the current climate model were mainly distributed in central China, and the highly suitable areas were distributed in southern Shaanxi, southwestern Henan, and northwestern Hubei. The lowest temperature in the coldest month (Bio6), the average temperature in the coldest quarter (Bio11), and the precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) all had good predictive ability. In future climate scenarios, the boundary of the suitable area for C. coreana in China is expected to shift northward, and thus, most of the future climate scenarios would shift northward.}, }
@article {pmid38920550, year = {2024}, author = {Rio, P and Caldarelli, M and Gasbarrini, A and Gambassi, G and Cianci, R}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Immunity and Gut Microbiota in the Development of Disease.}, journal = {Diseases (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/diseases12060118}, pmid = {38920550}, issn = {2079-9721}, abstract = {According to the definition provided by the United Nations, "climate change" describes the persistent alterations in temperatures and weather trends. These alterations may arise naturally, such as fluctuations in the solar cycle. Nonetheless, since the 19th century, human activities have emerged as the primary agent for climate change, primarily attributed to the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas. Climate change can potentially influence the well-being, agricultural production, housing, safety, and employment opportunities for all individuals. The immune system is an important interface through which global climate change affects human health. Extreme heat, weather events and environmental pollutants could impair both innate and adaptive immune responses, promoting inflammation and genomic instability, and increasing the risk of autoimmune and chronic inflammatory diseases. Moreover, climate change has an impact on both soil and gut microbiome composition, which can further explain changes in human health outcomes. This narrative review aims to explore the influence of climate change on human health and disease, focusing specifically on its effects on the immune system and gut microbiota. Understanding how these factors contribute to the development of physical and mental illness may allow for the design of strategies aimed at reducing the negative impact of climate and pollution on human health.}, }
@article {pmid38920109, year = {2024}, author = {Nespolo, RF and Quintero-Galvis, JF and Fontúrbel, FE and Cubillos, FA and Vianna, J and Moreno-Meynard, P and Rezende, EL and Bozinovic, F}, title = {Climate change and population persistence in a hibernating marsupial.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {291}, number = {2025}, pages = {20240266}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2024.0266}, pmid = {38920109}, issn = {1471-2954}, support = {//Agencia Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n y Desarrollo/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Marsupialia/physiology ; *Hibernation ; *Seasons ; Population Dynamics ; Models, Biological ; Ecosystem ; Energy Metabolism ; }, abstract = {Climate change has physiological consequences on organisms, ecosystems and human societies, surpassing the pace of organismal adaptation. Hibernating mammals are particularly vulnerable as winter survival is determined by short-term physiological changes triggered by temperature. In these animals, winter temperatures cannot surpass a certain threshold, above which hibernators arouse from torpor, increasing several fold their energy needs when food is unavailable. Here, we parameterized a numerical model predicting energy consumption in heterothermic species and modelled winter survival at different climate change scenarios. As a model species, we used the arboreal marsupial monito del monte (genus Dromiciops), which is recognized as one of the few South American hibernators. We modelled four climate change scenarios (from optimistic to pessimistic) based on IPCC projections, predicting that northern and coastal populations (Dromiciops bozinovici) will decline because the minimum number of cold days needed to survive the winter will not be attained. These populations are also the most affected by habitat fragmentation and changes in land use. Conversely, Andean and other highland populations, in cooler environments, are predicted to persist and thrive. Given the widespread presence of hibernating mammals around the world, models based on simple physiological parameters, such as this one, are becoming essential for predicting species responses to warming in the short term.}, }
@article {pmid38919037, year = {2024}, author = {Luthfiyah, S and Triwiyanto,  and Utomo, B and Pawana, IPA}, title = {Celebrating Australian nurses who are pioneering the response to climate change: A compilation of case studies [Letter].}, journal = {Contemporary nurse}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1080/10376178.2024.2363907}, pmid = {38919037}, issn = {1839-3535}, }
@article {pmid38918123, year = {2024}, author = {Ueda, D and Walston, SL and Fujita, S and Fushimi, Y and Tsuboyama, T and Kamagata, K and Yamada, A and Yanagawa, M and Ito, R and Fujima, N and Kawamura, M and Nakaura, T and Matsui, Y and Tatsugami, F and Fujioka, T and Nozaki, T and Hirata, K and Naganawa, S}, title = {Climate change and artificial intelligence in healthcare: Review and recommendations towards a sustainable future.}, journal = {Diagnostic and interventional imaging}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.diii.2024.06.002}, pmid = {38918123}, issn = {2211-5684}, abstract = {The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) in healthcare has revolutionized the industry, offering significant improvements in diagnostic accuracy, efficiency, and patient outcomes. However, the increasing adoption of AI systems also raises concerns about their environmental impact, particularly in the context of climate change. This review explores the intersection of climate change and AI in healthcare, examining the challenges posed by the energy consumption and carbon footprint of AI systems, as well as the potential solutions to mitigate their environmental impact. The review highlights the energy-intensive nature of AI model training and deployment, the contribution of data centers to greenhouse gas emissions, and the generation of electronic waste. To address these challenges, the development of energy-efficient AI models, the adoption of green computing practices, and the integration of renewable energy sources are discussed as potential solutions. The review also emphasizes the role of AI in optimizing healthcare workflows, reducing resource waste, and facilitating sustainable practices such as telemedicine. Furthermore, the importance of policy and governance frameworks, global initiatives, and collaborative efforts in promoting sustainable AI practices in healthcare is explored. The review concludes by outlining best practices for sustainable AI deployment, including eco-design, lifecycle assessment, responsible data management, and continuous monitoring and improvement. As the healthcare industry continues to embrace AI technologies, prioritizing sustainability and environmental responsibility is crucial to ensure that the benefits of AI are realized while actively contributing to the preservation of our planet.}, }
@article {pmid38917931, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, H and Li, Y and Huang, G and Ma, Y and Zhang, Q and Li, Y}, title = {Analyzing variation of water inflow to inland lakes under climate change: Integrating deep learning and time series data mining.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {119478}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119478}, pmid = {38917931}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {The alarming depletion of global inland lakes in recent decades makes it essential to predict water inflow from rivers to lakes (WIRL) trend and unveil the dominant influencing driver, particularly in the context of climate change. The raw time series data contains multiple components (i.e., long-term trend, seasonal periodicity, and random noise), which makes it challenging for traditional machine/deep learning techniques to effectively capture long-term trend information. In this study, a novel FactorConvSTLnet (FCS) method is developed through integrating STL decomposition, convolutional neural networks (CNN), and factorial analysis into a general framework. FCS is more robust in long-term WIRL trend prediction through separating trend information as a modeling predictor, as well as unveiling predominant drivers. FCS is applied to typical inland lakes (the Aral Sea and the Lake Balkhash) in Central Asia, and results indicate that FCS (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency=0.88, root mean squared error=67m[3]/s, mean relative error=10%) outperforms the traditional CNN. Some main findings are: (i) during 1960-1990, reservoir water storage (WSR) was the dominant driver for the two lakes, respectively contributing to 71% and 49%; during 1991-2014 and 2015-2099, evaporation (EVAP) would be the dominant driver, with the contribution of 30% and 47%; (ii) climate change would shift the dominant driver from human activities to natural factors, where EVAP and surface snow amount (SNW) have an increasing influence on WIRL; (iii) compared to SSP1-2.6, the SNW contribution would decrease by 26% under SSP5-8.5, while the EVAP contribution would increase by 9%. The findings reveal the main drivers of shrinkage of the inland lakes and provide the scientific basis for promoting regional ecological sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid38916342, year = {2024}, author = {Plutzer, E and Branch, G and Townley, AL}, title = {Climate change education in U.S. middle schools: changes over five pivotal years.}, journal = {Journal of microbiology &amp; biology education}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e0001524}, doi = {10.1128/jmbe.00015-24}, pmid = {38916342}, issn = {1935-7877}, abstract = {Climate change education is both important and challenging. Prior research suggests that many secondary school science teachers in the United States were conveying "mixed messages" to students that legitimized scientifically unwarranted explanations of recent global warming. In this paper, we focus on US climate education at the middle school level and assess whether teacher attention to recent global warming, and whether the messages conveyed to students, changed between 2014 and 2019. Pooling data from two nationally representative probability surveys of middle school science teachers, we show significant advances on several key criteria, but the prevalence of mixed messages remained high. Exploratory analysis suggests that improvements were spurred partly by the adoption of the Next Generation Science Standards by many states and by partly by shifts in the personal views of science educators.}, }
@article {pmid38914865, year = {2024}, author = {Kotz, M and Levermann, A and Wenz, L}, title = {Author Correction: The economic commitment of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-024-07732-2}, pmid = {38914865}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38914758, year = {2024}, author = {Parsons, ES and Jowell, A and Veidis, E and Barry, M and Israni, ST}, title = {Climate change and inequality.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38914758}, issn = {1530-0447}, abstract = {This review explores how climate change is manifesting along existing lines of inequality and thus further exacerbating current health disparities with a particular focus on children and future generations. Climate change risk and vulnerability are not equally distributed, nor is the adaptive capacity to respond to its adverse effects, which include health consequences, economic impacts, and displacement. Existing lines of inequality are already magnifying the adverse effects of climate change. Today's children and future generations will experience a disproportionate number of adverse climate events than prior generations, especially children in lower-income populations, communities of color, and Indigenous communities. In order to mitigate the crisis of inequity accompanying the climate crisis, systemic action must be taken on a global scale - with a focus on protecting children and future generations, and in empowering youth-led environmental activism and engagement in climate policy. IMPACT STATEMENT: Our review offers a current summary of the ways in which inequality is manifesting with respect to climate change in children and future generations. Rather than use a systematic review, we opted to use a theoretical framework to guide our review. We divided the effects of climate change into three effect pathways: via disruptions in (i) climate and weather, (ii) ecosystems, and (iii) society. By dividing our review in this theoretical framework, we can better suggest targeted public health interventions at each effect level. Furthermore, we are able to successfully identify literature gaps and areas of future research.}, }
@article {pmid38914712, year = {2024}, author = {Carroll, G and Abrahms, B and Brodie, S and Cimino, MA}, title = {Spatial match-mismatch between predators and prey under climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38914712}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Climate change is driving a rapid redistribution of life on Earth. Variability in the rates, magnitudes and directions of species' shifts can alter spatial overlap between predators and prey, with the potential to decouple trophic interactions. Although phenological mismatches between predator requirements and prey availability under climate change are well-established, 'spatial match-mismatch' dynamics remain poorly understood. We synthesize global evidence for climate-driven changes in spatial predator-prey overlap resulting from species redistribution across marine and terrestrial domains. We show that spatial mismatches can have vastly different outcomes for predator populations depending on their diet specialization and role within the wider ecosystem. We illustrate ecosystem-level consequences of climate-driven changes in spatial predator-prey overlap, from restructuring food webs to altering socio-ecological interactions. It remains unclear how predator-prey overlap at the landscape scale relates to prey encounter and consumption rates at local scales, or how the spatial reorganization of food webs affects ecosystem function. We identify key research directions necessary to resolve the scale of ecological impacts caused by species redistribution under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38914333, year = {2024}, author = {Masoumi, AH and Esmaeili, HR and Khosravi, R and Gholamhosseini, A and Korkmaz, M and Jeppesen, E}, title = {Species on the move: Impacts of climate change on the spatial range of endemic fishes of the eco-sensitive semi-arid area of the Arabian Peninsula.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174095}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174095}, pmid = {38914333}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most significant challenges worldwide in the Anthropocene, and it is predicted to importantly affect biological diversity, especially in freshwaters. Freshwater fishes are facing considerable global threats, particularly in eco-sensitive semi-arid to arid areas such as the Arabian Peninsula, which is considered a highly stressed region in the Middle East. Endemic species are believed to display a narrow range of traits, with rarity reflecting adaptation to specific environmental regimes, and they are thus highly sensitive to environmental disturbances. This study is the first attempt to map the occurrence of endemic freshwater fish species and predict the impact of climate change on their spatial range in the semi-arid area of the Arabian Peninsula using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). We compared the present and future (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) climate niche for the species under various climatic scenarios. All global circulation models (GCMs) performed well in predicting the species' climatic niche (AUC ranging between 0.72 and 0.92). For certain species (Cyprinion acinaces, Garra buettikeri, Carasobarbus exulatus, Arabibarbus arabicus, and Cyprinion mhalense), variables associated with precipitation were more important than those related to temperature, while for others (Carasobarbus apoensis, G. sahilia, G tibanica, and Aphaniops kruppi), temperature-related variables were most important. Precipitation in the coldest quarter and in the driest quarter was the most sensitive variable for the predictions. The species showed distinct responses to climate change; seven were predicted to lose their climatically suitable habitats (losers) and are thus threatened and highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, while two species were predicted to expand their range (winners). Regular monitoring of fish in the Arabian Peninsula is recommended to conserve endemic species and their ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38913693, year = {2024}, author = {Astolphi Lima, C and Alsunaidi, S and Lowe, S and Hogan, DB and Dennett, L and Jones, CA and Yamamoto, S}, title = {Exploring the influence of weather variability and climate change on health outcomes in people living with dementia: A scoping review protocol.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {e0304181}, pmid = {38913693}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Dementia ; *Weather ; *Quality of Life ; Aged ; Accidental Falls ; }, abstract = {Environmental factors resulting from climate change and air pollution are risk factors for many chronic conditions including dementia. Although research has shown the impacts of air pollution in terms of cognitive status, less is known about the association between climate change and specific health-related outcomes of older people living with dementia. In response, we outline a scoping review protocol to systematically review the published literature regarding the evidence of climate change, including temperature and weather variability, on health-related quality of life, morbidity, mobility, falls, the utilization of health resources, and mortality among older adults living with dementia. This scoping review will be guided by the framework proposed by Arksey and O'Malley. Electronic search (Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Scopus, Web of Science) using relevant subject headings and synonyms for two concepts (older people with dementia, weather/ climate change). No publication date or other restrictions will be applied to the search strategy. No language restriction will be applied in order to understand the impact of non-English studies in the literature. Eligible studies must include older adults (65+years) with dementia living in the community and investigate the impacts of climate change and/or weather on their health-related quality of life, morbidity, mobility, falls, use of health resources and mortality. Two independent reviewers will screen abstracts and select those for a full-text review, perform these reviews, select articles for retention, and extract data from them in a standardized manner. This data will then be synthesized and interpreted. OSF registration: DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/YRFM8.}, }
@article {pmid38912348, year = {2024}, author = {Seidel, L and Broman, E and Ståhle, M and Bergström, K and Forsman, A and Hylander, S and Ketzer, M and Dopson, M}, title = {Climate change induces shifts in coastal Baltic Sea surface water microorganism stress and photosynthesis gene expression.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1393538}, pmid = {38912348}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {The world's oceans are challenged by climate change linked warming with typically highly populated coastal areas being particularly susceptible to these effects. Many studies of climate change on the marine environment use large, short-term temperature manipulations that neglect factors such as long-term adaptation and seasonal cycles. In this study, a Baltic Sea 'heated' bay influenced by thermal discharge since the 1970s from a nuclear reactor (in relation to an unaffected nearby 'control' bay) was used to investigate how elevated temperature impacts surface water microbial communities and activities. 16S rRNA gene amplicon based microbial diversity and population structure showed no difference in alpha diversity in surface water microbial communities, while the beta diversity showed a dissimilarity between the bays. Amplicon sequencing variant relative abundances between the bays showed statistically higher values for, e.g., Ilumatobacteraceae and Burkholderiaceae in the heated and control bays, respectively. RNA transcript-derived activities followed a similar pattern in alpha and beta diversity with no effect on Shannon's H diversity but a significant difference in the beta diversity between the bays. The RNA data further showed more elevated transcript counts assigned to stress related genes in the heated bay that included heat shock protein genes dnaKJ, the co-chaperonin groS, and the nucleotide exchange factor heat shock protein grpE. The RNA data also showed elevated oxidative phosphorylation transcripts in the heated (e.g., atpHG) compared to control (e.g., atpAEFB) bay. Furthermore, genes related to photosynthesis had generally higher transcript numbers in the control bay, such as photosystem I (psaAC) and II genes (psbABCEH). These increased stress gene responses in the heated bay will likely have additional cascading effects on marine carbon cycling and ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid38912133, year = {2024}, author = {Bajerge, NM and Khankeh, H and Dashtbozorgi, A and Farrokhi, M}, title = {Abstruse Side of Climate Change, Impact on Malaria: A Systematic Evidence Review Comparing Iran versus Globally.}, journal = {Iranian journal of public health}, volume = {53}, number = {5}, pages = {1047-1057}, pmid = {38912133}, issn = {2251-6093}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Infectious outbreaks due to disrupted social and environmental conditions after climate change-induced events complicate disasters. This research aimed to determine the contentions of bioclimatic variables and extreme events on the prevalence of the most common Climate-Sensitive Infectious Disease (CSID); Malaria in Iran.<br><br>METHODS: The present narrative systematic review study was conducted on the bioclimatic variable impact on the prevalence of malaria, as a common CSID. The search was conducted in 3 sections: global climate change-related studies, disaster related, and studies that were conducted in Iran. The literature search was focused on papers published in English and Persian from Mar 2000 to Dec 2021, using electronic databases; Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, Google Scholar, SID, Magiran, and IranDoc.<br><br>RESULTS: Overall, 41 studies met the inclusion criteria. The various types of climatic variables including; Temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and hydrological events including; flood, drought, and cyclones has been reported as a predictor of malaria. The results of studies, inappropriately and often were inconsistent in both Iran and other parts of the world.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Identifying malaria outbreak risks is essential to assess vulnerability, and a starting point to identify where the health system is required to reduce the vulnerability and exposure of the population. The finding of most related studies is not congruent to achieve reliable information, more extensive studies in all climates and regions of the country, by climatic models and high accuracy risk map, using the long period of bioclimatic variables and malaria trend is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid38911103, year = {2024}, author = {Bhattacharya, S and Sahay, R and Afsana, F and Sheikh, A and Widanage, NM and Maskey, R and Naseri, MW and Murad, M and Harikumar, KVS and Selim, S and Aamir, AH and Muthukuda, D and Parajuli, N and Baheer, MD and Latheef, A and Nagendra, L and Mondal, S and Kamrul-Hasan, ABM and Raza, SA and Somasundaram, N and Shrestha, D and Anne, B and Ramakrishnan, S and Kalra, S}, title = {Global Warming and Endocrinology: The Hyderabad Declaration of the South Asian Federation of Endocrine Societies.}, journal = {Indian journal of endocrinology and metabolism}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {129-136}, pmid = {38911103}, issn = {2230-8210}, abstract = {Global warming and endocrine disorders are intertwined issues posing significant challenges. Greenhouse gases emanating from human activities drive global warming, leading to temperature rise and altered weather patterns. South Asia has experienced a noticeable temperature surge over the past century. The sizable population residing in the region heightens the susceptibility to the impact of global warming. In addition to affecting agriculture, water resources, and livelihood, environmental changes interfere with endocrine functioning. Resulting lifestyle changes increase the risk of metabolic and endocrine disorders. Individuals with diabetes face heightened vulnerability to extreme weather due to impaired thermoregulation. A high ambient temperature predisposes to heat-related illnesses, infertility, and nephropathy. Additionally, essential endocrine drugs and medical devices are susceptible to temperature fluctuations. The South Asian Federation of Endocrine Societies (SAFES) calls for collaboration among stakeholders to combat climate change and promote healthy living. Comprehensive approaches, including the establishment of sustainable food systems, promotion of physical activity, and raising awareness about environmental impacts, are imperative. SAFES recommends strategies such as prioritizing plant-based diets, reducing meat consumption, optimizing medical device usage, and enhancing accessibility to endocrine care. Raising awareness and educating caregivers and people living with diabetes on necessary precautions during extreme weather conditions are paramount. The heat sensitivity of insulin, blood glucose monitoring devices, and insulin pumps necessitates proper storage and consideration of environmental conditions for optimal efficacy. The inter-connectedness of global warming and endocrine disorders underscores the necessity of international collaboration guided by national endocrine societies. SAFES urges all stakeholders to actively implement sustainable practices to improve endocrine health in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38909818, year = {2024}, author = {Sunil, S and Bhagwat, G and Vincent, SGT and Palanisami, T}, title = {Microplastics and climate change; the global impacts of a tiny driver.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {174160}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174160}, pmid = {38909818}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Microplastic pollution and climate change, the two seemingly distinct phenomena of global concern, are interconnected through various pathways. The connecting links between the two include the biological carbon pumps in the oceans, the sea ice, the plastisphere involved in biogeochemical cycling and the direct emissions of greenhouse gases from microplastics. On one hand, the presence of microplastics in the water column disrupts the balance of the natural carbon sequestration by affecting the key players in the pumping of carbon, such as the phytoplankton and zooplankton. On the other hand, the effect of microplastics on the sea ice in Polar Regions is two-way, as the ice caps are transformed into sinks and sources of microplastics and at the same time, the microplastics can enhance the melting of ice by reducing the albedo. Microplastics may have more potential than larger plastic fragments to release greenhouse gases (GHGs). Microbe-mediated emission of GHGs from soils is also now altered by the microplastics present in the soil. Plastisphere, the emerging microbiome in aquatic environments, can also contribute to climate change as it hosts complex networks of microbes, many of which are involved in greenhouse gas production. To combat a global stressor like climate change, it needs to be addressed with a holistic approach and this begins with tracing the various stressors like microplastic pollution that can aggravate the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38909466, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, W and Chang, M and Li, J and Li, M and Stoks, R and Zhang, C}, title = {Local thermal adaption mediates the sensitivity of Daphnia magna to nanoplastics under global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {476}, number = {}, pages = {134921}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2024.134921}, pmid = {38909466}, issn = {1873-3336}, abstract = {The toxicity of nanoplastics at environmentally relevant concentrations has received widespread attention in the context of global warming. Despite numerous studies on the impact of mean temperature (MT), the effects of daily temperature fluctuations (DTFs) on the ecotoxicity of nanoplastics remains largely unexplored. Moreover, the role of evolutionary adaptation in assessing long-term ecological risks is unclear. Here, we investigated the effects of polystyrene nanoplastics (5 μg L[-1]) on Daphnia magna under varying MT (20 °C and 24 °C) and DTFs (0 °C, 5 °C, and 10 °C). Capitalizing on a space-for-time substitution approach, we further assessed how local thermal adaptation affect the sensitivity of Daphnia to nanoplastics under global warming. Our results indicated that nanoplastics exposure in general reduced heartbeat rate, thoracic limb activity and feeding rate, and increased CytP450, ETS activity and Hgb concentrations. Higher MT and DTFs enhanced these effects. Notably, clones originating from their respective sites performed better under their native temperature conditions, indicating local thermal adaptation. Warm-adapted low-latitude D. magna showed stronger nanoplastics-induced increases in CytP450, ETS activity and Hgb concentrations under local MT 24 °C, while cold-adapted high-latitude D. magna showed stronger nanoplastics-induced decreases in heartbeat rate, thoracic limb activity and feeding rate under high MT than under low MT.}, }
@article {pmid38909061, year = {2024}, author = {Jancewicz, B and Wrotek, M}, title = {A thermosurvey dataset: Older adults' experiences and adaptation to urban heat and climate change.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {677}, pmid = {38909061}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {2019/35/J/HS6/03992//Narodowe Centrum Nauki (National Science Centre)/ ; 2019/35/J/HS6/03992//Narodowe Centrum Nauki (National Science Centre)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Aged ; *Hot Temperature ; *Cities ; Spain ; }, abstract = {We introduce the thermosurvey dataset, a comprehensive collection focusing on the thermal comfort, heat-related experiences, health, socioeconomic status, and perceptions of older adults (aged 65 and over) in Warsaw and Madrid. The two cities differ greatly in their heat experiences, but due to climate change, both face increasing temperatures. The study aimed to understand how heat affects cities' older adult population and how we can better adapt to rising temperatures. We call the study a thermosurvey because it connects traditional survey data with temperature and humidity measurements done before, after and during the interview, offering a holistic view of the participants' thermal environments. The dataset can be used to better understand thermal comfort, the interplay of health and heat experiences, and the relationship between experiences and climate change views. We hope our data will enable scholars to analyse the impact of climate change on older adults and to develop strategies to help them adapt to a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid38908311, year = {2024}, author = {Chang, M and Sun, P and Zhang, L and Liu, Y and Chen, L and Ren, H and Wu, B}, title = {Changes in characteristics and risk of freshwater microplastics under global warming.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {260}, number = {}, pages = {121960}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2024.121960}, pmid = {38908311}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {Microplastics present a significant threat to freshwater ecosystems. However, the impact of global warming on their characteristics and associated risks remains uncertain. This study collected 2793 sample sites from literature and datasets to create a new risk assessment and rank methodology, known as the Multi-characteristics Potential Ecological Risk Index (MPERI), which incorporates various microplastic characteristics, such as concentration, size distribution, color, shape, and polymer diversity. Using regression random forest models (RRF), this study predicted that a 10 °C increase would raise microplastic concentration from 12,465.34 ± 68,603.87 to 13,387.17 ± 60,692.96 particles/m[3]. The percentage of small-size microplastics initially decreased (from 69.10 % to 68.72 %) and then increased (from 68.72 % to 68.78 %), while the diversity of color, shape, and polymer decreased by 0.29 %, 3.24 %, and 0.17 %, respectively. Furthermore, global warming could increase the rank of microplastic risks from high (405.25 ± 528.9) to dangerous (535.37 ± 582.03) based on the MPERI method. Most countries would experience an increase in risk values, with Indonesia and Vietnam transitioning from low to medium risk, and China and Malaysia transitioning from high to dangerous risk. The feature importance assessment of the RRF model indicated that concentration was the most influential variable in determining the change in risk values. While other microplastic characteristics had a lesser impact compared to concentration, they still influenced the risk ranking. This study highlights the role of global warming in shaping microplastic risks.}, }
@article {pmid38907970, year = {2024}, author = {Cortés, ME}, title = {Floods, wildfires, and other disasters in the context of climate change: prevention from a planetary health perspective.}, journal = {Medicina}, volume = {84}, number = {3}, pages = {548-550}, pmid = {38907970}, issn = {1669-9106}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Wildfires ; Humans ; *Floods ; *Disasters ; Global Health ; Disaster Planning ; }, }
@article {pmid38907768, year = {2024}, author = {Anand, A and Garg, VK}, title = {Modeling the species occurrence probability and response of climate change on Himalayan Somalata plant under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {7}, pages = {647}, pmid = {38907768}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {190520839205//University Grants Commission/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Nepal ; India ; *Ecosystem ; Bhutan ; Ephedra ; Environmental Monitoring ; Probability ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {In this study, the current distribution probability of Ephedra gerardiana (Somalata), a medicinally potent species of the Himalayas, was assessed, and its spatial distribution change was forecasted until the year 2100 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here, we used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) on 274 spatially filtered occurrence data points accessed from GBIF and other publications, and 19 bioclimatic variables were used as predictors against the probability assessment. The area under the curve, Continuous Boyce Index, True Skill Statistics, and kappa values were used to evaluate and validate the model. It was observed that the SSP5-8.5, a fossil fuel-fed scenario, saw a maximum habitat decline for E. gerardiana driving its niche towards higher altitudes. Nepal Himalayas witnessed a maximum decline in suitable habitat for the species, whereas it gained area in Bhutan. In India, regions of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, and Sikkim saw a maximum negative response to climate change by the year 2100. Mean annual temperature, isothermality, diurnal temperature range, and precipitation seasonality are the most influential variables isolated by the model that contribute in defining the species' habitat. The results provide evidence of the effects of climate change on the distribution of endemic species in the study area under different scenarios of emissions and anthropogenic coupling. Certainly, the area of consideration encompasses several protected areas, which will become more vulnerable to increased variability of climate, and regulating their boundaries might become a necessary step to conserve the regions' biodiversity in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38907718, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, C and Chen, J and Zhang, W and Ungar, K}, title = {Outdoor Radon Dose Rate in Canada's Arctic amid Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.4c02723}, pmid = {38907718}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Decades of radiation monitoring data were analyzed to estimate outdoor Radon Dose Rates (RnDRs) and evaluate climate change impacts in Canada's Arctic Regions (Resolute and Yellowknife). This study shows that the RnDR involves dynamic sources and complex environmental factors and processes. Its seasonality and long-term trends are significantly impacted by temperatures and soil-and-above water contents. From 2005 to 2022, Yellowknife's RnDR increased by +0.35 ± 0.06 nGy/h per decade, with the fastest increases occurring in cold months (October to March). The rise is largely attributable to water condition changes over time in these months, which also caused enhanced soil gas emissions and likely higher indoor radon concentrations. In Resolute, the RnDR increased between 2013 and 2022 at +0.62 ± 0.19 nGy/h (or 16% relatively) per decade in summer months, with a positive temperature relationship of +0.12 nGy/h per °C. This work also demonstrates the relevance of local climate and terrain features (e.g., typical active layer depth, precipitation amount/pattern, and ground vegetation cover) in researching climate change implications. Such research can also benefit from using supporting monitoring data, which prove effective and scientifically significant. From the perspective of external exposure to outdoor radon, the observed climate change effects pose a low health risk.}, }
@article {pmid38907241, year = {2024}, author = {Duran, S and Kaynak, S}, title = {Climate change worry among nurses and their hope levels for climate change prevention.}, journal = {BMC nursing}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {419}, pmid = {38907241}, issn = {1472-6955}, abstract = {AIM: This research aimed to determine nurses' climate change worry, their level of hope for climate change prevention, and the relationship between climate change worry and hope for climate change.<br><br>BACKGROUND: Nurses are healthcare professionals actively involved in the fight against climate change. However, their close involvement with the issue can also increase their own climate change worry. Therefore, it is important to maintain high levels of hope among nurses in preventing climate change.<br><br>METHODS: This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted with nurses working at a university hospital.<br><br>RESULTS: The average score on the Climate Change Worry Scale for nurses was 29.22&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;9.33, with sub-dimensions scores as follows: personal-sphere will and way 10.96&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;2.09; collective sphere will 18.36&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;3.39; lack of will and way dimensions 10.40&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;2.48. The average score on the climate change hope scale was 39.73&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;5.52. A statistically significant positive relationship was found between age and the climate change worry scale (r&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.169, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.020) as well as climate change hope (r&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.148, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.041).<br><br>CONCLUSION: The research findings indicate that nurses have a high level of climate change worry, but they also have a high level of hope in preventing climate change. It is considered essential to address the concerns of nurses who are actively combating the climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid38907123, year = {2024}, author = {Zaremba, D and Michałowski, JM and Klöckner, CA and Marchewka, A and Wierzba, M}, title = {Correction: Development and validation of the Emotional Climate Change Stories (ECCS) stimuli set.}, journal = {Behavior research methods}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3758/s13428-024-02460-x}, pmid = {38907123}, issn = {1554-3528}, }
@article {pmid38906404, year = {2024}, author = {Li, D and Wu, Q and Cheng, H and Feng, J and Li, D and Wang, Y and Cao, K and Wang, L}, title = {Numerical study of the future PM2.5 concentration under climate change and Best-Health-Effect (BHE) scenario.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {124391}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2024.124391}, pmid = {38906404}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) is one of the key areas with PM2.5 air pollution in China. Driven by the PM2.5 target accessibility of the Interim Target-1 (IT-1) by World Health Organization (WHO) and China's carbon neutrality, this study explored and quantified the contribution of climate change and anthropogenic emission to future PM2.5 in the region. The experiments considered future climate change scenarios RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 with the baseline (Base) and reduced emission (EIT1) inventories in 2030, and RCP4.5 climate scenario with 3 emission inventories in 2050, the additional strong control emission scenario called Best-Health-Effect (BHE). Under various climate scenarios, the future air quality research modelling system projected annual PM2.5 concentrations nearing 35 μg/m[3] in 2030. However, considering only the effect of emission reduction, the annual PM2.5 concentrations under EIT1 emission scenario is about 35% less than under Base scenario in different key years. The future PM2.5 concentrations are highly related to anthropogenic emission from human activities, while climate change by 2030 or 2050 has little impact on future air quality over the BTH region. The BHE emission reduction is significantly required for China to meet the new PM2.5 guideline value of WHO in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38905798, year = {2024}, author = {Barman, S and Singh, WR and Tyagi, J and Sharma, SK}, title = {A hybrid SWAT-ANN model approach for analysis of climate change impacts on sediment yield in an Eastern Himalayan sub-watershed of Brahmaputra.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {365}, number = {}, pages = {121538}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121538}, pmid = {38905798}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The current study focuses on analyzing the impacts of climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) changes on sediment yield in the Puthimari basin, an Eastern Himalayan sub-watershed of the Brahmaputra, using a hybrid SWAT-ANN model approach. The analysis was meticulously segmented into three distinct time spans: 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099. This innovative method integrates insights from multiple climate models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), along with LULC projections generated through the Cellular Automata Markov model. By combining the strengths of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques, the study aims to improve the accuracy of sediment yield simulations in response to changing environmental conditions. The non-linear autoregressive with external input (NARX) method was adopted for the ANN component of the hybrid model. The adoption of the hybrid SWAT-ANN approach appears to be particularly effective in improving the accuracy of sediment yield simulation compared to using the SWAT model alone, as evidenced by the higher coefficient of determination value of 0.74 for the hybrid model compared to 0.35 for the standalone SWAT model. In the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, during 2075-99, the study noted a 29.34% increase in sediment yield, accompanied by simultaneous rises of 42.74% in discharge and 27.43% in rainfall during the Indian monsoon season, spanning from June to September. In contrast, under the RCP8.5 scenario, for the same period, the increases in sediment yield, discharge, and rainfall for the monsoon season were determined to be 116.56%, 103.28%, and 64.72%, respectively. The present study's comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing sediment supply in the Puthimari River basin fills an important knowledge gap and provides valuable insights for designing proactive flood and erosion management strategies. The findings from this research are crucial for understanding the vulnerability of the Puthimari basin to climate and land use changes, and by incorporating these findings into policy and decision-making processes, stakeholders can work towards enhancing resilience and sustainability in the face of future hydrological and environmental challenges.}, }
@article {pmid38902424, year = {2024}, author = {Thanh, PN and Le Van, T and Thi, XAT and Hai, AN and Le Cong, C and Gagnon, AS and Pham, NT and Anh, DT and Dinh, VN}, title = {Predicting drought stress under climate change in the Southern Central Highlands of Vietnam.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {7}, pages = {636}, pmid = {38902424}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {No. 1543/Q&#x110;-UBND dated August 7, 2018//Research water balance and propose solutions to utilize water resources for cultivation activities in the direction of restructuring the agricultural sector and adapting to climate change in Lam Dong province/ ; No. 1543/Q&#x110;-UBND dated August 7, 2018//Research water balance and propose solutions to utilize water resources for cultivation activities in the direction of restructuring the agricultural sector and adapting to climate change in Lam Dong province/ ; No. 1543/Q&#x110;-UBND dated August 7, 2018//Research water balance and propose solutions to utilize water resources for cultivation activities in the direction of restructuring the agricultural sector and adapting to climate change in Lam Dong province/ ; No. 1543/Q&#x110;-UBND dated August 7, 2018//Research water balance and propose solutions to utilize water resources for cultivation activities in the direction of restructuring the agricultural sector and adapting to climate change in Lam Dong province/ ; No. 1543/Q&#x110;-UBND dated August 7, 2018//Research water balance and propose solutions to utilize water resources for cultivation activities in the direction of restructuring the agricultural sector and adapting to climate change in Lam Dong province/ ; No. 1543/Q&#x110;-UBND dated August 7, 2018//Research water balance and propose solutions to utilize water resources for cultivation activities in the direction of restructuring the agricultural sector and adapting to climate change in Lam Dong province/ ; No. 1543/Q&#x110;-UBND dated August 7, 2018//Research water balance and propose solutions to utilize water resources for cultivation activities in the direction of restructuring the agricultural sector and adapting to climate change in Lam Dong province/ ; No. 1543/Q&#x110;-UBND dated August 7, 2018//Research water balance and propose solutions to utilize water resources for cultivation activities in the direction of restructuring the agricultural sector and adapting to climate change in Lam Dong province/ ; No. 1543/Q&#x110;-UBND dated August 7, 2018//Research water balance and propose solutions to utilize water resources for cultivation activities in the direction of restructuring the agricultural sector and adapting to climate change in Lam Dong province/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Vietnam ; Environmental Monitoring ; Seasons ; Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {In the Southern Central Highlands of Vietnam, droughts occur more frequently, causing significant damage and impacting the region's socio-economic development. During the dry season, rivers, streams, and reservoirs often face limited water availability, exacerbated in recent years by increasing drought severity. Recognizing the escalating severity of droughts, the study offers a novel contribution by conducting a comprehensive analysis of surface water resource distribution in Lam Dong province, focusing on assessing water demand for agricultural production, a crucial factor in ensuring sustainable crop growth. Two scenarios, Current-2020 (SC1) and Climate Change-2025 (SC2), are simulated, with SC2 based on climate change and sea level rise scenarios provided by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE). These scenarios are integrated into the MIKE-NAM and MIKE-HYDRO basin models, allowing for a thorough assessment of the water balance of Lam Dong province. Furthermore, the study utilizes the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) to measure drought severity, revealing prevalent dry and moderately droughty conditions in highland districts with rainfall frequency ranging from 50 to 85%. Severe drought conditions occur with a rainfall frequency of 95%, indicating an increased frequency and geographic scope of severe droughts. Additionally, the study highlights that under abnormally dry conditions, water demand for the winter-spring crop is consistently met at 100%, decreasing to 85%, 80%, and less than 75% for moderate, severe, and extreme droughts, respectively. These findings offer insights into future drought conditions in the Lam Dong province and their potential impact on irrigation capacity, crucial for adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid38900735, year = {2024}, author = {Attanayake, K and Wickramage, I and Samarasinghe, U and Ranmini, Y and Ehalapitiya, S and Jayathilaka, R and Yapa, S}, title = {Renewable energy as a solution to climate change: Insights from a comprehensive study across nations.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {e0299807}, pmid = {38900735}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Renewable Energy ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Without fundamentally altering how humans generate and utilise energy, there is no effective strategy to safeguard the environment. The motivation behind this study was to analyse the effectiveness of renewable energy in addressing climate change, as it is one of the most pressing global issues. This study involved the analysis of panel data covering 138 nations over a 27 year period, from 1995 to 2021, making it the latest addition to the existing literature. We examined the extent of the impact of renewable energy on carbon dioxide over time using panel, linear, and non-linear regression approaches. The results of our analysis, revealed that the majority of countries with the exception of Canada, exhibited a downward trend, underscoring the potential of increasing renewable energy consumption as an effective method to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and combat climate change. Furthermore, to reduce emissions and combat climate change, it is advisable for nations with the highest carbon dioxide emissions to adopt and successfully transition to renewable energy sources.}, }
@article {pmid38900024, year = {2024}, author = {Gunasekaran, S and Szava-Kovats, A and Battey, T and Gross, J and Picano, E and Raman, SV and Lee, E and Bissell, MM and Alasnag, M and Campbell-Washburn, AE and Hanneman, K}, title = {Cardiovascular Imaging, Climate Change, and Environmental Sustainability.}, journal = {Radiology. Cardiothoracic imaging}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {e240135}, doi = {10.1148/ryct.240135}, pmid = {38900024}, issn = {2638-6135}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnostic imaging ; Greenhouse Gases ; Cardiac Imaging Techniques/methods ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects/analysis ; }, abstract = {Environmental exposures including poor air quality and extreme temperatures are exacerbated by climate change and are associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Concomitantly, the delivery of health care generates substantial atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to the climate crisis. Therefore, cardiac imaging teams must be aware not only of the adverse cardiovascular health effects of climate change, but also the downstream environmental ramifications of cardiovascular imaging. The purpose of this review is to highlight the impact of climate change on cardiovascular health, discuss the environmental impact of cardiovascular imaging, and describe opportunities to improve environmental sustainability of cardiac MRI, cardiac CT, echocardiography, cardiac nuclear imaging, and invasive cardiovascular imaging. Overarching strategies to improve environmental sustainability in cardiovascular imaging include prioritizing imaging tests with lower GHG emissions when more than one test is appropriate, reducing low-value imaging, and turning equipment off when not in use. Modality-specific opportunities include focused MRI protocols and low-field-strength applications, iodine contrast media recycling programs in cardiac CT, judicious use of US-enhancing agents in echocardiography, improved radiopharmaceutical procurement and waste management in nuclear cardiology, and use of reusable supplies in interventional suites. Finally, future directions and research are highlighted, including life cycle assessments over the lifespan of cardiac imaging equipment and the impact of artificial intelligence tools. Keywords: Heart, Safety, Sustainability, Cardiovascular Imaging Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2024.}, }
@article {pmid38899725, year = {2024}, author = {Syropoulos, S and Law, KF and Kraft-Todd, G and Mah, A and Markowitz, E and Young, L}, title = {Responsibility to future generations: A strategy for combatting climate change across political divides.}, journal = {The British journal of social psychology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/bjso.12775}, pmid = {38899725}, issn = {2044-8309}, support = {//John Templeton Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Individuals and governments often fail to take action to address climate change owing largely to widespread politicization of the issue and related discourse. In response to recent appeals for non-partisan approaches to pro-environmentalism, we propose that highlighting one's responsibility to future generations (RFG) could offer promise across the political spectrum. We argue that RFG may be effective because it is widely endorsed, uncorrelated with demographic indicators and less tied to political ideology compared to other forms of responsibility, such as personal responsibility for climate change mitigation. Across six main and seven supplementary studies (N = 161,633), we provide evidence for these claims. RFG is not only widely endorsed across countries and demographic groups but it also significantly predicts various measures of pro-environmental behaviour, both in correlational and pre-registered experimental contexts. These findings confirm established effects, reconcile inconsistencies and suggest prioritizing intergenerational responsibility may effectively reshape climate change narratives for the most resistant parties.}, }
@article {pmid38899533, year = {2024}, author = {Custer, CA and North, JS and Schliep, EM and Verhoeven, MR and Hansen, GJA and Wagner, T}, title = {Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e4362}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.4362}, pmid = {38899533}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {EF-163853//National Science Foundation/ ; EF-163855//National Science Foundation/ ; EF-1638554//National Science Foundation/ ; EF-1638679//National Science Foundation/ ; G20AC00096//U.S. Geological Survey/ ; DE-AC02-05CH11231//Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy/ ; //Regional and Global Model Analysis Program area within the Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program/ ; }, abstract = {Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species-environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold-adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range-with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38899513, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, Z and Deng, Y and Kang, Y and Wang, Y and Bao, D and Tan, Y and An, K and Su, J}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human activities on three Glires pests of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.8250}, pmid = {38899513}, issn = {1526-4998}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The range of Glires is influenced by human activities and climate change. However, the extent to which human activities and environmental changes have contributed to this relationship remains unclear. We examined alterations in the distribution changes and driving factors of the Himalayan marmot, plateau pika, and plateau zokor on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and a geographical detector (Geodetector).<br><br>RESULTS: The MaxEnt model showed that the contribution rates of the human footprint index (HFI) to the distribution patterns of the three types of Glires were 46.70%, 58.70%, and 59.50%, respectively. The Geodetector results showed that the distribution pattern of the Himalayan marmot on the QTP was influenced by altitude and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The distribution patterns for plateau pikas and plateau zokors were driven by HFI and NDVI. Climate has played a substantial role in shaping suitable habitats for these three Glires on the QTP. Their suitable area is expected to decrease over the next 30-50&#x2009;years, along with their niche breadth and overlap. Future suitable habitats for the three Glires tended to shift toward higher latitudes on the QTP.<br><br>CONCLUSION: These findings underscore the impacts of environmental and human factors on the distribution of the three Glires on the QTP. They have enhanced our understanding of the intricate relationships between Glires niches and environments. This can aid in identifying necessary interventions for developing effective early warning systems and prevention strategies to mitigate Glires infestations and plague epidemics on the QTP. &#xa9; 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid38898346, year = {2024}, author = {Ščevková, J and Štefániková, N and Dušička, J and Lafférsová, J and Zahradníková, E}, title = {Long-term pollen season trends of Fraxinus (ash), Quercus (oak) and Ambrosia artemisiifolia (ragweed) as indicators of anthropogenic climate change impact.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38898346}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {1/0180/22//Vedeck&#xe1; Grantov&#xe1; Agent&#xfa;ra M&#x160;VVa&#x160; SR a SAV/ ; }, abstract = {The ongoing climatic change, together with atmospheric pollution, influences the timing, duration and intensity of pollen seasons of some allergenic plant taxa. To study these influences, we correlated the trends in the pollen season characteristics of both woody (Fraxinus, Quercus) and herbaceous (Ambrosia) taxa from two pollen monitoring stations in Slovakia with the trends in meteorological factors and air pollutants during the last two decades. In woody species, the increased temperature during the formation of flower buds in summer and autumn led to an earlier onset and intensification of next year's pollen season, especially in Quercus. The increase of relative air humidity and precipitation during this time also had a positive influence on the intensity of the pollen season of trees. The pollen season of the invasive herbaceous species Ambrosia artemisiifolia was prolonged by increased temperature and humidity during the summer and autumn of the same year, which extended the blooming period and delayed the end of the pollen season. From the studied air pollutants, only three were found to correlate with the intensity of the pollen season of the studied taxa, CO - positively and SO2 and NO2 - negatively. It is important to study these long-term trends since they not only give us valuable insight into the response of plants to changing conditions but also enable the prognosis of the exacerbations of pollen-related allergenic diseases.}, }
@article {pmid38898300, year = {2024}, author = {Nogrady, B}, title = {How farming could become the ultimate climate-change tool.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {630}, number = {8017}, pages = {S23-S25}, pmid = {38898300}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Agriculture/trends/methods ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Animals ; }, }
@article {pmid38898125, year = {2024}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Abeldaño Zuñiga, RA and Sierra, J and Dinis, MAP and Corazza, L and Nagy, GJ and Aina, YA}, title = {An assessment of priorities in handling climate change impacts on infrastructures.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {14147}, pmid = {38898125}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change (CC) will likely significantly impact the world's infrastructure significantly. Rising temperatures, increased precipitation, and rising sea levels are all likely to stress critical infrastructures (CI). Rising temperatures can lead to infrastructure damage from extreme heat events. This can cause roads and bridges to buckle or crack, leading to costly repairs and potential traffic disruptions. In addition, heat waves can damage vital electrical infrastructure, leading to widespread power outages. In light of this context, this article reports on a study which examined the connections and impacts of CC on infrastructure. The study employed a mixed-method approach, combining bibliometric analysis for the period 1997-2022 with a series of relevant case studies from the five continents to offer insight into the impact of CC on infrastructure. The article fills a research gap in respect of assessments of the extent to which climate change (CC) negative influences the infrastructure, with a special focus on developing countries. It also showcases CI projects and adaptation measures being currently deployed, to address CC. The results show that the current infrastructure is vulnerable to CC. The selected case studies on CI adaptation show that in developing and industrialised countries, there is a perceived need to understand better the connections and potential impacts of CC on critical areas such as transport, settlements, and coastal infrastructure. In order to protect infrastructure from CC impacts, governments need to invest in measures such as flood control, early warning systems, and improved building codes. Additionally, they need to work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions more actively, which are the primary cause of CC.}, }
@article {pmid38897046, year = {2024}, author = {Baptista, E and Pereira, AJSC and Domingos, FP and Sêco, SLR and Luís, GPS}, title = {Exposure to radon gas in groundwater in southwest Angola (Lubango-Huíla): Implications of geology and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental radioactivity}, volume = {278}, number = {}, pages = {107484}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107484}, pmid = {38897046}, issn = {1879-1700}, abstract = {In southern African countries most of the population uses groundwater collected in dug wells for domestic consumption instead of water from public distribution systems. To investigate the impact of natural and human factors on urban groundwater quality, 276 samples were collected in the Lubango region (Angola) in water distribution systems and dug wells ranging from a few meters to almost one hundred meters in depth. Radon concentrations (RC) were determined by liquid scintillation counting according to ISO 13164-4:2015. Geology is the main source of the variability of RC, with median values higher than 100 Bq/L in granitoid units and lower values in mafic and sedimentary units (ranging from 5 to 38 Bq/L). On average, RC was higher in dug wells compared to public water distribution systems. The annual effective dose due to ingestion of radon in water is, on average, ten times lower in the later compared to dug wells. Therefore, from a public exposure perspective, water distribution systems are preferred as means for water distribution. A severe multi-year meteorological drought over the past decade affecting 76-94 % of the population in southern Angola has been linked with climate change. Consequently, a regional lowering of the water table was observed, as well as a reduction in the productivity of shallower wells, leading to a search for water at greater depths. This work demonstrates an increase in median RC from 66 Bq/L in wells shallower than 30 m to values over 100 Bq/L with increasing depth of water extraction and for the same geological unit. The highest RC observed were also observed at the deepest wells. The dose ingested is proportional to RC, being also higher at deeper water extraction depths. The increase in public radiation exposure from radon ingestion due to water extraction at greater depths is attributed to the underlying issue of climate change. Monitoring water quality in terms of radionuclide concentration is advised to ensure the exposure to ionizing radiation remains at acceptable levels in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38895960, year = {2024}, author = {Montoro-Ramírez, EM and Parra-Anguita, L and Álvarez-Nieto, C and Parra, G and López-Medina, IM}, title = {Climate change effects in older people's health: A scoping review.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jan.16270}, pmid = {38895960}, issn = {1365-2648}, support = {FPU 19/01871//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has serious consequences for the morbidity and mortality of older adults.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To identify the effects of climate change on older people's health.<br><br>METHODS: A scoping review was conducted following the Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines and the PRISMA-ScR checklist. Quantitative research and reports from organizations describing the effects of climate change on older people were selected.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixty-three full-text documents were selected. Heat and air pollution were the two factors that had the most negative effects on cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality in older people. Mental health and cognitive function were also affected.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change affects several health problems in older individuals, especially high temperatures and air pollution. Nursing professionals must have the necessary skills to respond to the climate risks in older adults. More instruments are required to determine nursing competencies on climate change and the health of this population group.<br><br>No patient or public contribution.}, }
@article {pmid38895718, year = {2024}, author = {, }, title = {Erratum: Analysis of the current risk of Leishmania infantum transmission for domestic dogs in Spain and Portugal and its future projection in climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in veterinary science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1436792}, doi = {10.3389/fvets.2024.1436792}, pmid = {38895718}, issn = {2297-1769}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1399772.].}, }
@article {pmid38894971, year = {2024}, author = {Sadiq, M and Rahim, N and Tahir, MM and Alasmari, A and Alqahtani, MM and Albogami, A and Ghanem, KZ and Abdein, MA and Ali, M and Mehmood, N and Yuan, J and Shaheen, A and Shehzad, M and El-Sayed, MH and Chen, G and Li, G}, title = {Conservation tillage: a way to improve yield and soil properties and decrease global warming potential in spring wheat agroecosystems.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1356426}, pmid = {38894971}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the main challenges, and it poses a tough challenge to the agriculture industry globally. Additionally, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the main contributor to climate change; however, croplands are a prominent source of GHG emissions. Yet this complex challenge can be mitigated through climate-smart agricultural practices. Conservation tillage is commonly known to preserve soil and mitigate environmental change by reducing GHG emissions. Nonetheless, there is still a paucity of information on the influences of conservation tillage on wheat yield, soil properties, and GHG flux, particularly in the semi-arid Dingxi belt. Hence, in order to fill this gap, different tillage systems, namely conventional tillage (CT) control, straw incorporation with conventional tillage (CTS), no-tillage (NT), and stubble return with no-tillage (NTS), were laid at Dingxi, Gansu province of China, under a randomized complete block design with three replications to examine their impacts on yield, soil properties, and GHG fluxes. Results depicted that different conservative tillage systems (CTS, NTS, and NT) significantly (p < 0.05) increased the plant height, number of spikes per plant, seed number per meter square, root yield, aboveground biomass yield, thousand-grain weight, grain yield, and dry matter yield compared with CT. Moreover, these conservation tillage systems notably improved the soil properties (soil gravimetric water content, water-filled pore space, water storage, porosity, aggregates, saturated hydraulic conductivity, organic carbon, light fraction organic carbon, carbon storage, microbial biomass carbon, total nitrogen, available nitrogen storage, microbial biomass nitrogen, total phosphorous, available phosphorous, total potassium, available potassium, microbial counts, urease, alkaline phosphatase, invertase, cellulase, and catalase) while decreasing the soil temperature and bulk density over CT. However, CTS, NTS, and NT had non-significant effects on ECe, pH, and stoichiometric properties (C:N ratio, C:P ratio, and N:P ratio). Additionally, conservation-based tillage regimes NTS, NT, and CTS significantly (p < 0.05) reduced the emission and net global warming potential of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) by 23.44, 19.57, and 16.54%, respectively, and decreased the greenhouse gas intensity by 23.20, 29.96, and 18.72%, respectively, over CT. We conclude that NTS is the best approach to increasing yield, soil and water conservation, resilience, and mitigation of agroecosystem capacity.}, }
@article {pmid38893529, year = {2024}, author = {Rosso, A and Vione, D}, title = {Pollutant Photodegradation Affected by Evaporative Water Concentration in a Climate Change Scenario.}, journal = {Molecules (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {29}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {38893529}, issn = {1420-3049}, abstract = {Evaporative water concentration takes place in arid or semi-arid environments when stationary water bodies, such as lakes or ponds, prevalently lose water by evaporation, which prevails over outflow or seepage into aquifers. Absence or near-absence of precipitation and elevated temperatures are important prerequisites for the process, which has the potential to deeply affect the photochemical attenuation of pollutants, including contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). Here we show that water evaporation would enhance the phototransformation of many CECs, especially those undergoing degradation mainly through direct photolysis and triplet-sensitized reactions. In contrast, processes induced by hydroxyl and carbonate radicals would be inhibited. Our model results suggest that the photochemical impact of water evaporation might increase in the future in several regions of the world, with no continent likely being unaffected, due to the effects of local precipitation decrease combined with an increase in temperature that facilitates evaporation.}, }
@article {pmid38891371, year = {2024}, author = {Fedorov, N and Muldashev, A and Mikhaylenko, O and Zhigunova, S and Baisheva, E and Shirokikh, P and Bikbaev, I and Martynenko, V}, title = {Forecast the Habitat Sustainability of Schoenus ferrugineus L. (Cyperaceae) in the Southern Urals under Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {38891371}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {22-14-00003//Russian Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {An analysis of the current potential range of the Pleistocene relict plant species Schoenus ferrugineus and modeling of changes in its future range under moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate change in the middle and second half of the 21st century were carried out. The MaxEnt program was used for modeling. Climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim, the global digital soil mapping system SoilGrids, and a digital elevation model were used as predictors. Modeling has shown that climate change will lead to a significant reduction in the suitability of S. ferrugineus habitat conditions by the mid-21st century. The predicted changes in the distribution of habitats of S. ferrugineus, a diagnostic species of calcareous mires and an indicator of their ecological state, indicate a possible strong transformation of wetland complexes in the Southern Urals region even under moderate climate change. A reduction in the distribution of S. ferrugineus at the eastern limit of its range will also be facilitated by more frequent extreme droughts. To maintain the distribution of S. ferrugineus on the eastern border of its range, a number of measures are proposed to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change, contributing to the preservation of the hydrological regime of calcareous mires.}, }
@article {pmid38891352, year = {2024}, author = {Wan, Q and Du, S and Chen, Y and Li, F and Salah, R and Njenga, MN and Li, J and Wang, S}, title = {Ecological Niche Differentiation and Response to Climate Change of the African Endemic Family Myrothamnaceae.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {38891352}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Studying the ecological niches of species and their responses to climate change can provide better conservation strategies for these species. Myrothamnaceae is endemic to Africa, comprising only two species that belong to Myrothamnus (M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus). These closely related species exhibit allopatric distributions, positioning them as ideal materials for studying the species ecological adaptation. This study explores the ecological niche differentiation between M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus and their response capabilities to future climate change. The results indicate that M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus have undergone niche differentiation. The main drivers of niche differences are the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) for M. flabellifolius, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) for M. moschatus. M. flabellifolius demonstrated a stronger adaptation to environments characterized by lower precipitation, relatively lower temperatures, and greater annual temperature variations compared to M. moschatus. Under future climate scenarios (SSP5-8.5, 2081-2100 years), the results show that approximately 85% of the total suitable habitat for M. flabellifolius will be lost, with an 85% reduction in high-suitability areas and almost complete loss of the original mid-low suitability areas. Concurrently, about 29% of the total suitable habitat for M. moschatus will be lost, with a 34% reduction in high suitability areas and roughly 60% of the original mid-low suitability areas becoming unsuitable. This suggests that M. flabellifolius will face greater threats under future climate change. This study contributes novel insight into niche differentiation in Myrothamnaceae and provides useful information for the conservation of this distinctive African lineage.}, }
@article {pmid38891349, year = {2024}, author = {Hu, XG and Chen, J and Chen, Q and Yang, Y and Lin, Y and Jin, Z and Sha, L and Lin, E and Yousry, EK and Huang, H}, title = {The Spatial Shifts and Vulnerability Assessment of Ecological Niches under Climate Change Scenarios for Betula luminifera, a Fast-Growing Precious Tree in China.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {38891349}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {32001327//The National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2021C02070-1//Key Scientific and Technological Grant of Zhejiang for Breeding New Agricultural Varieties/ ; LQ21C160002//The National Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang/ ; }, abstract = {The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessments of ecological niches for trees will offer fresh perspectives for sustainable development and preservation of forests, particularly within the framework of rapid climate change. Betula luminifera is a fast-growing native timber plantation species in China, but the natural resources have been severely damaged. Here, a comprehensive habitat suitability model (including ten niche-based GIS modeling algorithms) was developed that integrates three types of environmental factors, namely, climatic, soil, and ultraviolet variables, to assess the species contemporary and future distribution of suitable habitats across China. Our results suggest that the habitats of B. luminifera generally occur in subtropical areas (about 1.52 × 10[6] km[2]). However, the growth of B. luminifera is profoundly shaped by the nuances of its local environment, the most reasonable niche spaces are only 1.15 × 10[6] km[2] when limiting ecological factors (soil and ultraviolet) are considered, generally considered as the core production region. Furthermore, it is anticipated that species-suitable habitats will decrease by 10 and 8% with climate change in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. Our study provided a clear understanding of species-suitable habitat distribution and identified the reasons why other niche spaces are unsuitable in the future, which can warn against artificial cultivation and conservation planning.}, }
@article {pmid38891233, year = {2024}, author = {Rong, W and Huang, X and Hu, S and Zhang, X and Jiang, P and Niu, P and Su, J and Wang, M and Chu, G}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability and Natural Product Accumulation of the Medicinal Plant Sophora alopecuroides L. Based on the MaxEnt Model.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {38891233}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Sophora alopecuroides L., a perennial herb in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China, has the ecological functions of windbreaking and sand fixation and high medicinal value. In recent years, global warming and human activities have led to changes in suitable habitats for S. alopecuroides, which may affect the accumulation of natural products. In this study, MaxEnt 3.4 and ArcGIS 10.4 software were used to predict the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for S. alopecuroides in China under climate change. Furthermore, the geographical distribution of S. alopecuroides as affected by human activities, the differences in the content of natural products of S. alopecuroides between different suitable habitats, and the correlation between natural products and environmental factors were analyzed. The results showed that suitable habitats for S. alopecuroides were projected to expand in the future, and the major environmental factors were temperature (Bio1), rainfall (Bio18), and soil pH (pH). When Bio1, Bio18, and pH were 8.4283 °C, 7.1968 mm, and 9.9331, respectively, the distribution probability (P) of S. alopecuroides was the highest. After adding a human activity factor, the accuracy of the model prediction results was improved, and the area of suitable habitats was greatly reduced, showing a fragmented pattern. Meanwhile, habitat suitability had a specific effect on the content of natural products in S. alopecuroides. Specifically, the content of natural products in S. alopecuroides in wild habitats was higher than that in artificial cultivation, and highly suitable habitats showed higher contents than those in non-highly suitable habitats. The contents of total alkaloids and total flavonoids were positively correlated with human activities and negatively correlated with land use types. Among them, total alkaloids were negatively correlated with aspect, and total flavonoids were positively correlated with aspect. In addition, it is suggested that Xinjiang should be the priority planting area for S. alopecuroides in China, and priority should be given to protection measures in the Alashan area. Overall, this study provides an important foundation for the determination of priority planting areas and resource protection for S. alopecuroides.}, }
@article {pmid38891203, year = {2024}, author = {Larionow, P and Gawrych, M and Mackiewicz, J and Michalak, M and Mudło-Głagolska, K and Preece, DA and Stewart, AE}, title = {The Climate Change Worry Scale (CCWS) and Its Links with Demographics and Mental Health Outcomes in a Polish Sample.}, journal = {Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {38891203}, issn = {2227-9032}, abstract = {Developing valid and reliable measures of psychological responses to climate change is of high importance, as this facilitates our understanding of people's psychological responses, including their pro-environmental behavior. Recently, the Climate Change Worry Scale (CCWS) was introduced. This study aimed to develop the first Polish version of the CCWS and explore its psychometric properties. Our sample comprised 420 Polish adults aged 18-70, with a mean age of 26.20 (standard deviation = 10.61) years. The CCWS's factor structure was assessed with confirmatory factor analysis. McDonald's omega and Cronbach's alpha coefficients were computed to assess internal consistency reliability. Pearson correlations between climate change worry (CCW) and experience of climate change (i.e., an individual's level of perception of being affected by climate change), pro-environmental behavior, ill-being (i.e., anxiety and depression symptoms), and well-being were calculated. Our results support the strong factorial validity of the CCWS, conforming to its intended one-factor solution, with excellent internal consistency reliability for the total scale score (i.e., McDonald's omega and Cronbach's alpha values of 0.93). We noted large positive correlations between CCW and experiences of climate change, as well as pro-environmental behavior, and medium positive correlations with psychopathology symptoms. CCW scores were not associated with well-being. As the CCWS represents a measure of a specific manifestation of worry, we also examined its discriminant validity against more general psychological distress markers, and it evidenced strong validity in this regard. Overall, the Polish version of the CCWS appears to have strong psychometric properties, and will therefore be a useful tool to use in research on psychological responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38890517, year = {2024}, author = {Wong, C}, title = {How climate change is hitting Europe: three graphics reveal health impacts.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38890517}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38890272, year = {2024}, author = {Zheng, D and Tong, D and Davis, SJ and Qin, Y and Liu, Y and Xu, R and Yang, J and Yan, X and Geng, G and Che, H and Zhang, Q}, title = {Climate change impacts on the extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide during 1980-2022.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {5225}, pmid = {38890272}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Economic productivity depends on reliable access to electricity, but the extreme shortage events of variable wind-solar systems may be strongly affected by climate change. Here, hourly reanalysis climatological data are leveraged to examine historical trends in defined extreme shortage events worldwide. We find uptrends in extreme shortage events regardless of their frequency, duration, and intensity since 1980. For instance, duration of extreme low-reliability events worldwide has increased by 4.1 hours (0.392 hours per year on average) between 1980-2000 and 2001-2022. However, such ascending trends are unevenly distributed worldwide, with a greater variability in low- and middle-latitude developing countries. This uptrend in extreme shortage events is driven by extremely low wind speed and solar radiation, particularly compound wind and solar drought, which however are strongly disproportionated. Only average 12.5% change in compound extremely low wind speed and solar radiation events may give rise to over 30% variability in extreme shortage events, despite a mere average 1.0% change in average wind speed and solar radiation. Our findings underline that wind-solar systems will probably suffer from weakened power security if such uptrends persist in a warmer future.}, }
@article {pmid38890143, year = {2024}, author = {Tapkigen, J and Harding, S and Pulkki, J and Atkins, S and Koivusalo, M}, title = {Climate change-induced shifts in the food systems and diet-related non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review and a conceptual framework.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e080241}, doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2023-080241}, pmid = {38890143}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology ; *Food Supply ; Diet ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between climate change, food systems and diet-related non-communicable diseases (DR-NCDs) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and propose a conceptual framework for food systems in SSA.<br><br>DESIGN: A scoping review.<br><br>ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies included investigated the relationship between climate change and related systemic risks, food systems, DR-NCDs and its risk factors in SSA. Studies focusing on the association between climate change and DR-NCDs unrelated to food systems, such as social inequalities, were excluded.<br><br>SOURCES OF EVIDENCE: A comprehensive search was conducted in ProQuest (nine databases), Google Scholar and PubMed in December 2022.<br><br>CHARTING METHODS: Data extracted from studies included author, study type, country of study, climate change component, DR-NCD outcomes and risk factors, and impacts of climate change on DR-NCDs. A narrative approach was used to analyse the data. Based on the evidence gathered from SSA, we modified an existing food system conceptual framework.<br><br>RESULTS: The search retrieved 19&#x2009;125 studies, 10 of which were included in the review. Most studies used a cross-sectional design (n=8). Four explored the influence of temperature on liver cancer through food storage while four explored the influence of temperature and rainfall on diabetes and obesity through food production. Cross-sectional evidence suggested that temperature is associated with liver cancer and rainfall with diabetes.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The review highlights the vulnerability of SSA's food systems to climate change-induced fluctuations, which in turn affect dietary patterns and DR-NCD outcomes. The evidence is scarce and concentrates mostly on the health effects of temperature through food storage. It proposes a conceptual framework to guide future research addressing climate change and DR-NCDs in SSA.}, }
@article {pmid38888707, year = {2024}, author = {Hambira, WL and Kolawole, OD and Saarinen, J and Moses, O and Mulale, K and Mogomotsi, PK}, title = {Perspectives of nature-based tourism-dependent communities on climate change in the Okavango Delta, Botswana.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38888707}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {Office of Research and Development, University of Botswana//Office of Research and Development, University of Botswana/ ; }, abstract = {The intensity and frequency of climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts and extreme rainfall events are projected to rise. This will increase the severity of their impacts across socio-ecological systems. Economic sectors such as nature-based tourism become more vulnerable because of their reliance on climate and natural capital as key resources. While attempts have been made to understand how climate change may impact tourists and the industry itself, little is known about the same on tourism-dependent communities. This paper determines the extent to which tourism-dependent communities are vulnerable to climate change in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, to enhance their wider livelihood the development of strategies for improving adaptive capacity, resilience, and reduced exposure sensitivities. A household survey of 172 households was conducted in three purposively selected villages of Mababe, Sankuyo and Khwai, actively involved in community-based tourism for their socio-economic development. Information sourced related to livelihood options, peoples' resilience, local risks, and hazards. The data was analysed using descriptive statistics and thematic analysis. The results indicate that respondents have observed climatic changes over the years such as increased temperatures, decreased rainfall, and increased frequencies of extreme events. The respondents attributed changes in natural capital to these observed climatic conditions in the form of desiccation, dwindling populations of some wildlife species, decreased fish stocks and reduced vegetation cover. This renders the tourism-dependent communities vulnerable as their livelihood is threatened. The paper thus concludes that climate change adaptation is an urgent priority for local communities who are already exposed to existing climatic and non-climatic stresses.}, }
@article {pmid38888313, year = {2024}, author = {Parejko, JA}, title = {Climate change and plant rhizosphere microbiomes: an experiential course-embedded research project.}, journal = {Journal of microbiology &amp; biology education}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e0004624}, doi = {10.1128/jmbe.00046-24}, pmid = {38888313}, issn = {1935-7877}, abstract = {The current and ongoing challenges brought on by climate change will require future scientists who have hands-on experience using advanced molecular techniques, can work with large data sets, and can make correlations between metadata and microbial diversity. A course-embedded research project can prepare students to answer complex research questions that might help plants adapt to climate change. The project described herein uses plants as a host to study the impact of climate change-induced drought on host-microbe interactions through next-generation DNA sequencing and analysis using a command-line program. Specifically, the project studies the impact of simulated drought on the rhizosphere microbiome of Fast Plants rapid cycling Brassica rapa using inexpensive greenhouse supplies and 16S rRNA V3/V4 Illumina sequencing. Data analysis is performed with the freely accessible Python-based microbiome bioinformatics platform QIIME 2.}, }
@article {pmid38887460, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, E and Lu, Z and Rohani, ER and Ou, J and Tong, X and Han, R}, title = {Current and future distribution of Forsythia suspensa in China under climate change adopting the MaxEnt model.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1394799}, pmid = {38887460}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {This study evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Forsythia suspensa, a valuable traditional Chinese medicinal plant, using the MaxEnt model integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS). By analyzing occurrence data from various databases and environmental variables including climate and soil factors, we forecasted the present and future (2050s and 2070s) habitat suitability of F. suspensa under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6). Results indicated that the suitable habitats for F. suspensa were primarily located in North, East, Central, Northwest, and Southwest China, with a significant potential expansion of suitable habitats anticipated by the 2070s, particularly under the high emission scenario. The study identified precipitation and temperature as the primary environmental drivers impacting the distribution of F. suspensa. Furthermore, a northward shift in the centroid of suitable habitats under future climate scenarios suggested a potential migration response to global warming. This work provides crucial insights into the future conservation and cultivation strategies for F. suspensa amidst changing climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38886424, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, CY and Ding, Y and Ma, FL and Zhou, HK and Wang, XL and Zhang, Q and Liu, XW and Mutalifu, W and Guo, L}, title = {[Climate change affects plant aboveground biomass by regulating the growth periods in alpine grasslands of the Tibetan Plateau, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {1260-1268}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202405.020}, pmid = {38886424}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Biomass ; *Grassland ; *Climate Change ; Tibet ; *Poaceae/growth &amp; development ; China ; Altitude ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change significantly affects plant biomass and phenological occurrence time in alpine grasslands of Tibetan Plateau. The changes in phenological periods are closely related to the length of vegetative and reproductive growth periods, which may further affect aboveground biomass accumulation. In this study, based on fixed-point observations of plant biomass and phenology as well as the corresponding climatic data from 1997 to 2020 in the alpine grasslands of Tibetan Plateau, we used statistical methods such as ordinary linear regression and piecewise structural equation model to explore the characteristics of interannual climate change in the study area, the variation trends of plant biomass and phenological periods, and the correlations between biomass and phenological and climatic factors. The results showed that mean annual temperature and annual precipitation in the study area increased significantly from 1997 to 2020, suggesting a clear "warm-wet" trend. Aboveground biomass and relative biomass of Stipa sareptana var. krylovii (the dominant species) decreased significantly. However, absolute and relative biomass of subdominant species (Kobresia humilis) increased significantly, indicating that the dominance of K. humilis increased. The warm-wet climates enhanced aboveground biomass accumulation of K. humilis by extending the period of reproductive growth. Mean annual temperature and annual precipitation decreased aboveground biomass of S. sareptana by shortening the length of vegetative growth period. In a word, the warmer and wetter climate significantly affected aboveground biomass accumulation by regulating the changes in the phenological period, and the interspecific difference in their response resulted in a larger change in community composition. This study area may show a trend from alpine grassland to alpine meadow, and thus further works are urgently needed.}, }
@article {pmid38886418, year = {2024}, author = {Li, J and Liu, Z and Wang, P and Yang, R and Shi, FM and Deng, J and Wang, GY and Shi, SL}, title = {[Response of radial growth of Pinus wallichiana to climate change in Mount Qomolangma, Tibet, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {1205-1213}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202405.002}, pmid = {38886418}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Tibet ; Pinus/growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; Temperature ; Plant Stems/growth &amp; development ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {Global warming would significantly impact tree growth in the Tibetan Plateau. However, the specific effects of climate change on the radial growth of Pinus wallichiana in Mount Qomolangma are still uncertain. To investigate the responses of radial growth of P. wallichiana to climate change, we analyzed tree-ring samples in Mount Qomolangma. We removed the age-related growth trends and established three chronologies by using the modified negative exponential curve, basal area index, and regional curve standardization, and conducted Pearson correlation and moving correlation analyses to examine the association between radial growth of P. wallichiana and climatic factors. The results showed that this region had experienced a significant upward trend in temperature and that the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) indicated a decreasing trend since 1980s, while the relative humi-dity changed from a significant upward to a downward trend around 2004, implying the climate shifted toward warmer and drier. Results of Pearson correlation analysis indicated a significant and positive relationship between the radial growth of P. wallichiana and the minimum temperature of April-June and July-September, and precipitation of January-April in the current year. The radial growth of P. wallichiana was significantly and negatively associated with the relative humidity of June, July, and August in the current year. As temperature rose after 1983, the relationship between radial growth of P. wallichiana and the minimum temperature in July and September of the current year increased from a non-significant association to a significant and positive association, while the relationship between radial growth of P. wallichiana and relative humidity in August and precipitation in September of the current year changed from non-significant correlation to a significant and negative correlation. Results of the moving correlation analysis suggested that the radial growth of P. wallichiana showed a significant and stable correlation with the July-September minimum temperature of the current year. Under the background of climate warming, the rapid increases of temperature would accelerate the radial growth of P. wallichiana in Mount Qomolangma.}, }
@article {pmid38886416, year = {2024}, author = {Qi, YY and Keyimu, M and Li, ZS and Zeng, FJ}, title = {[Radial growth response of Populus euphratica to climate change in the Cele desert oasis ecotone, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {1187-1195}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202405.003}, pmid = {38886416}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Populus/growth &amp; development ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Desert Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Populus euphratica is an important tree species in the arid regions of Northwest China, which is sensitive to climate changes. Climate of the Northwest China is changing to be "warm and humid", but how it would affect the regional forest growth is not clear. In this study, the radial growth response of P. euphratica to major climatic factors and their temporal changes during 1984-2021 were analyzed by using dendrochronology method in the desert oasis ecotone of Cele in the southern Tarim basin. The results showed that tree-ring width index of P. euphratica had a significant negative correlation with temperature in September of the previous year, and in February and May of current year, had significant positive correlation with precipitation in September of previous year and March and May of current year, and had significant positive correlations with SPEI in February and May of current year. The relationships between tree-ring width index and combined month climatic factors were more obvious. The results of moving correlation analysis showed that the correlation between tree-ring width index and temperature in the growing season tended to be strengthened in recent years, while the correlation between tree-ring width index and precipitation, SPEI tended to be declined or remain stable. The variations of the relationships between tree-ring width index and combined month climatic factors were more obvious compared that with single month. Current regional climate is conducive to the growth and development, as well as the improvement of ecological shelter function of P. euphratica forest in the desert oasis ecotone of Cele.}, }
@article {pmid38886415, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, Z and Li, J and Shi, SL and Yang, R and Luo, WW and Ma, YL and Bie, XJ and Wang, GY}, title = {[Response of radial growth of different timberline species to climate change in Yading Nature Reserve, Sichuan, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {1177-1186}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202405.001}, pmid = {38886415}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; China ; *Larix/growth &amp; development ; Juniperus/growth &amp; development ; Abies/growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Temperature ; Plant Stems/growth &amp; development ; Altitude ; }, abstract = {The radial growth of trees in alpine timberline is particularly sensitive to climate change. We sampled and disposed tree-ring cores of three coniferous tree species including Juniperus saltuaria, Abies forrestii, and Larix potaninii at alpine timberline in Yading Nature Reserve. The standard tree-ring chronology was used to explore the response of radial growth of different timberline species to climate change. The results showed that radial growth of L. potaninii increased after 2000, while that of A. forrestii declined after 2002, and J. saltuaria showed a significant decreasing growth trend in the past 10 years. Such results indicated divergent growth responses to climate factors among the three tree species at alpine timberline. The radial growth of J. saltuaria was sensitive to temperature, and was positively correlated with the minimum temperature from previous October to current August, the mean tempera-ture from previous November to current April and from current July to October, but was negatively associated with the relative humidity from current July to October. The radial growth of A. forrestii showed negative correlation with mean temperature and the maximum temperature from May to June in the current year, while it exhibited positive association with the relative humidity and the Palmer drought severity index from May to June in the current year. L. potaninii radial growth was positively associated with mean temperature and the maximum temperature of November-December in the previous year, the maximum temperature of current March and mean temperature of current August. The temporal stability of climate-growth relationship varied among different timberline species. The positive correlation between radial growth of A. forrestii and J. saltuaria and temperature gradually decreased, while the posi-tive relationship of L. potaninii radial growth and temperature gradually increased. Under the background of climate warming, rapid rise in surface air temperatures may promote the radial growth of L. potaninii, while inhibit that of J. saltuaria and A. forrestii, which may change the position of regional timberline.}, }
@article {pmid38886119, year = {2024}, author = {Wood, JD and Detto, M and Browne, M and Kraft, NJB and Konings, AG and Fisher, JB and Quetin, GR and Trugman, AT and Magney, TS and Medeiros, CD and Vinod, N and Buckley, TN and Sack, L}, title = {The Ecosystem as Super-organ/Ism, Revisited: Scaling Hydraulics to Forests under Climate Change.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icae073}, pmid = {38886119}, issn = {1557-7023}, abstract = {Classic debates in community ecology focused on the complexities of considering an ecosystem as a super-organ or organism. New consideration of such perspectives could clarify mechanisms underlying the dynamics of forest carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake and water vapor loss, important for predicting and managing the future of Earth's ecosystems and climate system. Here, we provide a rubric for considering ecosystem traits as aggregated, systemic, or emergent, i.e., representing the ecosystem as an aggregate of its individuals, or as a metaphorical or literal super-organ or organism. We review recent approaches to scaling-up plant water relations (hydraulics) concepts developed for organs and organisms to enable and interpret measurements at ecosystem-level. We focus on three community scale versions of water relations traits that have potential to provide mechanistic insight into climate change responses of CO2 and H2O gas exchange and forest productivity: leaf water potential (Ψcanopy), pressure volume curves (eco-PV), and hydraulic conductance (Keco). These analyses can reveal additional ecosystem-scale parameters analogous to those typically quantified for leaves or plants (e.g., wilting point and hydraulic vulnerability) that may act as thresholds in forest responses to drought including growth cessation, mortality and flammability. We unite these concepts in a novel framework to predict Ψcanopy and its approaching of critical thresholds during drought, using measurements of Keco and eco-PV curves. We thus delineate how extension of water relations concepts from organ- and organism-scales can reveal the hydraulic constraints on the interaction of vegetation and climate, and provide new mechanistic understanding and prediction of forest water use and productivity.}, }
@article {pmid38884244, year = {2024}, author = {Gong, ZY and Wang, CL and Dong, DD and Zhang, R and Zhang, X}, title = {[Influence of climate change and human activities on grassland phenology in Anhui Province].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {1092-1100}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202404.021}, pmid = {38884244}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; China ; *Human Activities ; *Grassland ; Seasons ; Humans ; Ecosystem ; Poaceae/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {To explore the influence of climate change and human activities on grassland phenology in Anhui Pro-vince, and quantify the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to phenology, we extracted the phenology of grassland, including the start of growing season (SOS) and the end of growing season (EOS), based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset of Anhui Province from 2003 to 2020. The temporal and spatial characteristics and future evolution trends of phenological changes were analyzed using slope trend ana-lysis, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, and Hurst index. We further conducted correlation analysis and residual analysis based on the datasets of mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation to explore the responses of phenology to climate change and human activities, and quantify their contribution rate. The results showed that SOS and EOS showed an advancing trend with a rate of 0.8 and 0.7 days per year from 2003 to 2020. SOS in the sou-thern part of the study area was significantly earlier than in the central and northern regions, while EOS gradually advanced from south to north. Both SOS and EOS in the future showed an advancing trend. SOS was negatively correlated with annual average temperature, while positively correlated with annual precipitation. EOS was negatively correlated with both annual average temperature and annual precipitation. The proportion of the area where SOS was advanced driven by both climate change and human activities was 56.9%, and the value was 48.3% for EOS. Human activities were the main driving factor for phenology, and climate change was the secondary driving factor. The relative contributions of human activities and climate change to SOS were 66.4% and 33.6%, and to EOS were 61.2% and 38.8%, respectively. Human activities had stronger impact on SOS and EOS than climate change, resulting in earlier phenology.}, }
@article {pmid38884035, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Nigerian medical journal : journal of the Nigeria Medical Association}, volume = {63}, number = {6}, pages = {438-441}, pmid = {38884035}, issn = {0300-1652}, abstract = {Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38883297, year = {2024}, author = {Yin, Z and Song, X and Zhou, B and Jiang, W and Chen, H and Wang, H}, title = {Traditional Meiyu-Baiu has been suspended by global warming.}, journal = {National science review}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {nwae166}, pmid = {38883297}, issn = {2053-714X}, abstract = {More than 1000 years, the Meiyu-Baiu have shaped the uniqueness of natural resources, civilization and culture in the Yangtze River Basin of China and the main islands of Japan. In recent decades, frequent rainstorms and droughts have seemingly diminished the misty features of traditional Meiyu-Baiu rainfall. However, there is still no consensus on whether their traditional nature is suspended. In this study, we quantitatively demonstrate that the Meiyu-Baiu almost completely lost their traditional features during 1961-2023, ∼80% of which can be attributed to anthropogenic warming. Furthermore, in a warmer future, the traditional Meiyu-Baiu will be more unlikely to appear. This study underscores the urgency in adapting to climate shift because destructive extremes are measurably taking the place of mild and maternal rains.}, }
@article {pmid38882429, year = {2024}, author = {Sazegar, P and Kaur, P and Abbott, RA}, title = {Application of Illness Scripts Theory to Climate Change Through a Multi-Residency Educational Symposium.}, journal = {Journal of graduate medical education}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {353-354}, pmid = {38882429}, issn = {1949-8357}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Internship and Residency ; Congresses as Topic ; Education, Medical, Graduate ; }, }
@article {pmid38882299, year = {2024}, author = {Sharifi, A and Baubekova, A and Patro, ER and Klöve, B and Torabi Haghighi, A}, title = {The combined effects of anthropogenic and climate change on river flow alterations in the Southern Caspian Sea Iran.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {e31960}, pmid = {38882299}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {In recent years, the effects of human activities and climate change on river flow patterns have become a major concern worldwide. This is particularly true in the southern Caspian Sea (SCS) region of Iran, where increasing water-intensive socio-economic development and climate change have significantly altered river flow regimes. To better understand these changes, this study employs two nonparametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall method (MK3) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), to examine spatial and temporal changes in hydrometeorological variables in the SCS. The study also evaluates the impact of human activities and climate change on river flow alteration using elasticity-based methods and the Budyko hypothesis in 40 rivers on the closest gauges to the Caspian Sea. The results indicate an alarming trend of increasing temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and decreasing river flows in the SCS region. In particular, human activities were found to be responsible for around 91.7 % of the change on average, resulting in a significant decline in inflow to the Caspian Sea by about 3216 MCM annually. This declining trend in inflow could potentially exacerbate the eutrophication conditions in the Sea and negatively impact its ecosystem and economics. Therefore, appropriate measures need to be taken to address these environmental and socio-economic issues in the southern Caspian Sea region.}, }
@article {pmid38881686, year = {2024}, author = {Benesch, T and Sergeeva, M and Wainstock, D and Miller, J}, title = {Climate change, health, and human rights: calling on states to address the health risks of climate change, through the Inter-American Court of Human Rights.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {34}, number = {}, pages = {100801}, pmid = {38881686}, issn = {2667-193X}, }
@article {pmid38881301, year = {2024}, author = {Goldfarb, DS and Patel, AA}, title = {Climate change and its implications for kidney health.}, journal = {Current opinion in urology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/MOU.0000000000001197}, pmid = {38881301}, issn = {1473-6586}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Extremes of weather as a result of climate change are affecting social, economic and health systems. Kidney health is being threatened by global warming while treatment of kidney disease is contributing to increasing resource utilization and leaving a substantial carbon footprint. Improved physician awareness and patient education are needed to mitigate the risk.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Rising temperatures are changing kidney disease patterns, with increasing prevalence of acute kidney injury, chronic kidney disease and kidney stones. These issues disproportionately affect people suffering from social inequality and limited access to resources.<br><br>SUMMARY: In this article, we review the effects of climate change on kidney stones, and acute and chronic kidney injury. Finally, we discuss the impact of renal replacement therapies on the environment and proposed ways to mitigate it.}, }
@article {pmid38880851, year = {2024}, author = {Elsisi, M and Elshiekh, M and Sabry, N and Aziz, M and Attia, K and Islam, F and Chen, J and Abdelrahman, M}, title = {The genetic orchestra of salicylic acid in plant resilience to climate change induced abiotic stress: critical review.}, journal = {Stress biology}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {31}, pmid = {38880851}, issn = {2731-0450}, abstract = {Climate change, driven by human activities and natural processes, has led to critical alterations in varying patterns during cropping seasons and is a vital threat to global food security. The climate change impose several abiotic stresses on crop production systems. These abiotic stresses include extreme temperatures, drought, and salinity, which expose agricultural fields to more vulnerable conditions and lead to substantial crop yield and quality losses. Plant hormones, especially salicylic acid (SA), has crucial roles for plant resiliency under unfavorable environments. This review explores the genetics and molecular mechanisms underlying SA's role in mitigating abiotic stress-induced damage in plants. It also explores the SA biosynthesis pathways, and highlights the regulation of their products under several abiotic stresses. Various roles and possible modes of action of SA in mitigating abiotic stresses are discussed, along with unraveling the genetic mechanisms and genes involved in responses under stress conditions. Additionally, this review investigates molecular pathways and mechanisms through which SA exerts its protective effects, such as redox signaling, cross-talks with other plant hormones, and mitogen-activated protein kinase pathways. Moreover, the review discusses potentials of using genetic engineering approaches, such as CRISPR technology, for deciphering the roles of SA in enhancing plant resilience to climate change related abiotic stresses. This comprehensive analysis bridges the gap between genetics of SA role in response to climate change related stressors. Overall goal is to highlight SA's significance in safeguarding plants and by offering insights of SA hormone for sustainable agriculture under challenging environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38879644, year = {2024}, author = {Fu, Y and Jian, S and Yu, X}, title = {Water use efficiency in China is impacted by climate change and land use and land cover.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38879644}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2021GGJS003//the Training Program for Young Backbone Teachers in Colleges and Universities of Henan Province/ ; }, abstract = {A crucial physiological indicator known as water use efficiency (WUE) (Foley et al.) assesses the trade-off between water loss and carbon uptake. The carbon and water coupling mechanisms, energy balance, and hydrological cycle processes in the ecosystem are impacted by climate change, vegetation dynamics, and land use change. In this study, we employed Sen trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, the land-use transfer matrix, and multiple linear regression analysis to investigate the regional and temporal dynamics of WUE and its reaction to climate change and land-use transfer changes in China. According to the findings, the annual average WUE in China was 0.998 gC/mm·m[2] from 2000 to 2017. Of the nine major river basins, the Continental Basin had the lowest WUE (0.529 gC/mm·m[2]), and the Southwest River Basin had the highest WUE (0.691 gC/mm·m[2]), while the Pearl River Basin and the Southeast River Basin had the highest WUEs (1.184 gC/mm·m[2]). The Haihe River Basin and the Yellow River Basin were the key regions with elevated WUE. Forest had the greatest WUE (1.134 gC/mm·m[2]; out of the nine major river basins), followed by shrub (1.109 gC/mm·m[2]). Vegetation dynamics changes had a higher impact on WUE than climate change and land use changes, when the contributions of climate change, vegetation dynamics changes, and land use changes to WUE were separated. The largest climatic factor influencing variations in WUE was VPD (28.04% ± 3.98%), whereas among the vegetation dynamics factors, NDVI (33.75% ± 6.90%) and LAI (22.21% ± 2.11%) contributed the most. The transition from high to low vegetation cover led to a relative decrease in WUE, and vice versa, according to data on land use change in China from 2000 to 2017. Land use change made a positive impact to WUE change. The findings of this study may be helpful in China for choosing a suitable regional plant cover and managing local water resources sustainably.}, }
@article {pmid38878566, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, J and O'Brien, E and Holloway, P and Nolan, P and Stewart, MG and Ryan, PC}, title = {Climate change impact and adaptation assessment for road drainage systems.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {364}, number = {}, pages = {121209}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121209}, pmid = {38878566}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change exhibits a clear trend of escalating frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing heightened risks to drainage systems along the existing road networks. However, very few studies to date have investigated the consequences of projected future changes in rainfall on main road drainage and the resulting risk of road flooding. The work presented in this paper builds on the limited research by introducing a probabilistic model for assessing the impact of climate change on road drainage systems, incorporating climate uncertainty and drainage system variation. The probabilistic scenario-based model and associated framework offer a practical and innovative method for estimating the impact of short-duration storms under future climates for 2071-2100, in the absence of fine-resolution spatio-temporal data. The model also facilitates the assessment of the effectiveness of a climate adaptation strategy. An illustrative case-study of a road drainage system located in the south of Ireland is presented. It was found that the probability of road flooding during intense rainfall is projected to surpass the current acceptable limits set by Irish standards. Assessment of a proactive climate adaptation strategy implemented in 2015 indicated it may need to be adjusted to further reduce climate change impacts and optimise adaptation costs.}, }
@article {pmid38877214, year = {2024}, author = {Bolakhe, S}, title = {Wildfires are raging in Nepal - climate change isn't the only culprit.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38877214}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38877115, year = {2024}, author = {Ebi, KL and Bowen, K and Haines, A and Hess, JJ and Kovats, RS and Woodward, A}, title = {Estimating the total effect of anthropogenic climate change on human health and wellbeing.}, journal = {Nature medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38877115}, issn = {1546-170X}, }
@article {pmid38875780, year = {2024}, author = {Pirnajmedin, F and Jaškūnė, K and Majidi, MM}, title = {Adaptive strategies to drought stress in grasses of the poaceae family under climate change: Physiological, genetic and molecular perspectives: A review.}, journal = {Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB}, volume = {213}, number = {}, pages = {108814}, doi = {10.1016/j.plaphy.2024.108814}, pmid = {38875780}, issn = {1873-2690}, abstract = {Drought stress is one of the most critical abiotic factors which negatively impacts on growth, productivity, and survival of plants. Grass species have an important role in the sustainable intensification of cropping systems. This review focus on the specific drought tolerance characteristics in grass species and application of prevalent classical and molecular methods for genetic improvement of them to drought stress. Generally, grass species adapt to drought stress by utilizing more than one strategy including of changes in the root growth, photosynthetic pigments, activation of antioxidant enzymes, and accumulation of compatible osmolytes. They also have other specific characteristics consisted of summer dormancy, drought recovery, and persistence, which lead to drought adaptation after prolonged drought. Studies on different grasses, indicated that most of above mentioned traits usually have positive correlation with drought tolerance. Also, high heritability has been reported for most of them in different grasses. Therefore, an effective index might be considering in identification of drought tolerance genotypes. Recently, high-throughput imaging phenotyping and advanced molecular techniques such as genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS), RNA sequencing, genome-wide association study, and genome editing help conventional breeding methods to increase the accuracy, selection efficiency, genetic gains, and speed of breeding programs for developing drought tolerant cultivars.}, }
@article {pmid38874849, year = {2024}, author = {Regev, S and Carmel, Y and Gal, G}, title = {Assessing alternative lake management actions for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38874849}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {3-15504//Ministry of Science, Technology and Space/ ; }, abstract = {Lake management actions are required to protect lake ecosystems that are being threatened by climate change. Freshwater lakes in semiarid regions are of upmost importance to their region. Simulations of the subtropical Lake Kinneret project that rising temperatures will cause change to phytoplankton species composition, including increased cyanobacteria blooms, endangering lake ecosystem services. Using lake ecosystem models, we examined several management actions under climate change, including two alternatives of desalinated water introduction into the lake, hypolimnetic water withdrawal, watershed management changes and low versus high lake water level. To account for prediction uncertainty, we utilized an ensemble of two 1D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical lake models along with 500 realizations of meteorological conditions. Results suggest that supplying desalinated water for local use, thus releasing more natural waters through the Jordan River, increasing nutrient flow, may reduce cyanobacteria blooms, mitigating climate change effects. However, these results are accompanied by considerable uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid38874655, year = {2024}, author = {Dos Santos, HT and Marchioro, CA}, title = {Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick, 1909) Voltinism: Implications for Fruit Production in Southern Brazil.}, journal = {Neotropical entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38874655}, issn = {1678-8052}, abstract = {The leafroller Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick) is an important pest of temperate fruits. Its biology and population dynamics are strongly influenced by temperature. In this context, this study aims to select a mathematical model that accurately describes the temperature-dependent development rate of A. sphaleropa and applies this model to predict the impact of climate change on the number of annual generations (voltinism) of the pest in southern Brazil. Nine mathematical models were employed to fit the species' developmental rate at different constant temperatures. Voltinism was projected using climate data from the current period (1994-2013) and projections for 2050 and 2070. The Brière-1 model (D(T) = aT(T-TL)(TH-T)[1/2]) provided the best fit for the temperature-dependent developmental rate of A. sphaleropa. According to this model, the regions with the highest voltinism under current climatic conditions are the northern and central areas of Paraná, the western and northeastern regions of Santa Catarina, and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul. The model also predicts a rise in A. sphaleropa voltinism as a consequence of climate change, especially in the mountainous regions of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, with projected increases of up to 25.1%. These regions encompass most areas where temperate fruits used as hosts by the leafroller are cultivated. This study represents a significant advancement in understanding the implications of global warming on A. sphaleropa voltinism and suggests that forthcoming climatic conditions will likely favor the species across much of southern Brazil.}, }
@article {pmid38874291, year = {2024}, author = {Afifi, M and Malkawi, M and El-Adawy, M}, title = {Women's health and climate change: a threat or an opportunity.}, journal = {Eastern Mediterranean health journal = La revue de sante de la Mediterranee orientale = al-Majallah al-sihhiyah li-sharq al-mutawassit}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {330-332}, doi = {10.26719/2024.30.5.330}, pmid = {38874291}, issn = {1687-1634}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Women's Health ; Female ; Mediterranean Region ; Global Health ; }, }
@article {pmid38873493, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, W and Shao, Y and Zou, X and Yan, J and Xu, M and Zhou, G and Fu, S}, title = {Fluctuating "soil CO2-lake" is key for understanding global climate change.}, journal = {Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {100642}, pmid = {38873493}, issn = {2666-6758}, }
@article {pmid38872491, year = {2024}, author = {Nordeng, Z and Kriit, HK and Poltimäe, H and Aunan, K and Dahl, MS and Jevtic, M and Matkovic, V and Sandanger, G and Orru, H}, title = {Valuation and perception of the costs of climate change on health.}, journal = {Scandinavian journal of public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {14034948241247614}, doi = {10.1177/14034948241247614}, pmid = {38872491}, issn = {1651-1905}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate change affects our societies and lives through our economies, our livelihoods, and our health. Economic losses of climate change are estimated at $23 trillion, largely through externalities due to premature mortality, healthcare expenditure, and health-related work losses. Even if there are established methods to quantify the health economic burden, there is limited information on how people perceive this information. The current study aimed to examine different health cost evaluation methods and observe perceptions of stakeholders in the climate change context.<br><br>METHOD: The participatory research approach of the World Caf&#xe9; with 41 participants was applied to explore four topics associated with valuing the costs of climate change. The data were analyzed following an inductive approach.<br><br>RESULTS: Despite the willingness-to-pay approach being widely applied, many experts see actual healthcare costs as a more explicit indicator of costs; however, this approach might underestimate actual costs. Participants experienced difficulties accepting and understanding cost estimates that indicated very high externalities as a percentage of gross domestic product. The cost-effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation measures was also challenged by a concern that while the costs of such measures are incurred now, the benefits do not come to fruition until later, for example, when building bike lanes or dams.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Policies should favor environmentally friendly activities such as making cycling more convenient in cities with the health benefits presented in monetary terms, while limiting car driving. Moreover, the public might better understand the costs of climate change via tools that map how solutions influence different sectors and outlining the costs in evaluating the benefits for health and the environment.}, }
@article {pmid38871779, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, Y and Wan, Y and Wang, C and Chen, J and Si, Q and Ma, F}, title = {Potential distribution of three invasive agricultural pests in China under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {13672}, pmid = {38871779}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2021YFC2600400//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; *Weevils/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Agriculture ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Invasive pests reduce biodiversity and ecosystem service functions, thereby leading to economic and also agricultural losses. Banana skipper (Erionota torus Evans), red palm weevil (Rhynchophorus ferrugineus), and coconut caterpillar (Opisina arenosella Walker) are invasive insect pests in the palm-growing regions and they have had serious consequences for the planting of bananas (Musa nana), palms (Trachycarpus fortune) and coconut (Cocos nucifera). Based on screened occurrence data, the present research utilized Maximum Entropy model (Maxent) to simulate the distribution dynamics of these three invasive insects in China, under current and future climate (2050s, 2070s, 2090s) in two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs: 126 and 585) of the newly released coupled model intercomparison project phase6 (CMIP6). The results show that: (1) Under current and future climate conditions, all model groups exhibited an AUC value exceeding 0.92, which shows that the model prediction results are very good;(2) The suitable habitat area of E. torus Evans remains relatively stable with some expansion in the SSP126 of 2090s and some contraction in the SSP585 of 2090s. The suitable habitat area of R. ferrugineus showed an overall contraction, with substantial contraction in the SSP585 of 2090s.The suitable habitat area of O. arenosella has an overall expansion, with the most pronounced expansion in the SSP585 of 2070s; (3) The current centroid of suitable habitats for R. ferrugineus and E. torus Evans is located in Guangxi Province and wholely shift toward the south direction under future climate. The centroid of suitable habitats for O. arenosella is currently located in the northeastern maritime area of Hainan Province and will shift toward the north direction under future climate; (4) Temperature, precipitation and Human disturbance factors (Population density and Human influence index) were crucial variables for describing the distribution of the three species. For E. torus Evans in particular, percentage contributions of Population density was up to 31.4, which is only 0.1 different from ranked first Bio19 (Precipitation of the coldest quarter). The dynamics of habitats of these three species and the correlating driver factors proposed in this work provide essential insights into future spatial management of the three invasive insects in China. Our work is necessary and timely in identifying newly areas at high risk of expansion of the three invasive insects in the future, then suggesting strategic control measures to prevent their spread, and finally providing scientific evidence for the early prevention and rapid response to the three invasive insects.}, }
@article {pmid38871518, year = {2024}, author = {Sapkota, TB and Vetter, SH and Jat, ML and Sirohi, S and Shirsath, PB and Singh, R and Jat, HS and Smith, P and Hillier, J and Stirling, CM}, title = {Corrigendum to "Cost-effective opportunities for climate change mitigation in Indian agriculture" [Sci. Total Environ. 655 (2019) 1342-1354].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173853}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173853}, pmid = {38871518}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid38871325, year = {2024}, author = {Bao, Y and Han, A and Gele, T and Song, Z and Liu, X and Tong, Z and Zhang, J}, title = {Climate change reduces elevational and latitudinal differences in spring phenology of pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus spectabilis Bulter).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173847}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173847}, pmid = {38871325}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus spectabilis Bulter, Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae), as an ectotherm, temperature plays a crucial role in its development. With climate change, earlier development of insect pests is expected to pose a more frequent threat to forest communities. Yet the quantitative research about the extent to which global warming affects pine caterpillar populations is rarely understood, particularly across various elevations and latitudes. Spring phenology of pine caterpillars showed an advancing trend with 0.8 d/10a, 2.2 d/10a, 2.2 d/10a, and 3.3 d/10a under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively. There was a maximum advance of 20 d in spring phenology of pine caterpillars during the 2090s, from mid-March to early March, and even late February. This study highlighted the significant advance in spring phenology at elevations >1000 m and lower latitudes. Consequently, the differences in elevational and latitudinal gradients were relatively small as the increasing temperatures at the end of the 21st century. And the average temperature in February-March was effective in explaining theses variability. These findings are crucial for adapting and mitigating to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38871275, year = {2024}, author = {Viji, R and Yi, Y and Xueyuan, W and Seong, S and Varatharajan, A}, title = {Evaluate climate change and anthropogenic activities influencing geochemical variations in sediment between and within the avulsion period in the Lower Yellow River avulsion channels.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {119405}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119405}, pmid = {38871275}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {The geochemical data from sediments in avulsion channels provide historical evidence of climate change and human-induced alterations in river basin environments. The present study focused on the particle size of sediments in cores and the level of geochemical variation in avulsion channels of the Lower Yellow River Delta (YRD), China. The sediment samples were collected in a depth range of 20-400 cm in avulsion channels. The collected samples were analyzed for sediment particle size and geochemical composition using standard methods. The results demonstrated rapid increases in agriculture practices, rainfall pattern changes, and terrestrial sediment runoff reduction in river basins after the 1960s. The reduced sediment loads in the Sanmenxia Reservoir significantly changed the sediment grain size and geochemical levels in the avulsion channel from August 1960.8 to January -1961.1. In particular, TC, TN, and C/N levels decreased with increasing sediment depth. The C/N values of <12 denoted completely reduced terrestrial sources of organic matter in the channel during the August 1960- January 1961 period compared to the July 1953- August 1960 period. The two-way ANOVA p-values were (p<0.016-p<0.001) strong between the avulsion periods but had no significant variation within the avulsion periods. We emphasize that this study provides a close interplay of different historical periods of geochemical variation in avulsion channel sediments in the alluvial fan YRD, and we argue that the evolution of the middle upstream river basin was subjective by climate change and human developmental actions, which impacted the YRD. In particular, reservoir-interrupted water flow and sediment reduction impacts associated with geochemical fluctuations are documented in the YRD.}, }
@article {pmid38870383, year = {2024}, author = {D'Ambrosio, M and Locke, T and Hendricks-Sturrup, R}, title = {Addressing Climate Change-Induced Tick-borne Lyme Disease Patterns Through Data-Driven 'One Health' Policy.}, journal = {Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {E157-E160}, pmid = {38870383}, issn = {1550-5022}, mesh = {*Lyme Disease/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; One Health ; Animals ; }, }
@article {pmid38869370, year = {2024}, author = {Dočkalová, K and Stuchlík, E and Hamerlík, L and Bitušík, P and Turek, J and Svitok, M and Novikmec, M and Lackner, R and Dvorak, M and Kopáček, J and Tátosová, J and Camarero, L and Füreder, L and Vondrák, D}, title = {Cold mountain stream chironomids (Diptera) of the genus Diamesa indicate both historical and recent climate change.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/ee/nvae052}, pmid = {38869370}, issn = {1938-2936}, support = {I 4568-B//Austrian-Czech Lead Agency project-Austrian Science Fund/ ; 23-06075S//Czech Science foundation/ ; 1/0400/21//Scientific Grant Agency of the Ministry of Education of Slovak Republic and the Academy of Sciences/ ; APVV-20-0358//Slovak Research and Development Agency/ ; }, abstract = {Chironomids of the genus Diamesa (Meigen, 1835, Diptera: Chironomidae) inhabit cold, oxygen-rich running waters. We have investigated the presence of Diamesa and other freshwater macroinvertebrates at 22 stream sampling sites in 3 European high mountain regions (the Central Pyrenees, the Ötztal Alps, and the Tatra Mountains) to establish suitable temperature conditions for Diamesa dominance. It has been generally accepted that their high abundance was linked to the presence of glaciers; however, we have shown that in the Tatra Mountains, where there are no glaciers, the conditions for the dominance of Diamesa species are created due to permanent snowfields, the geographical orientation of the valley and shading by the surrounding high peaks. The historical connection of Diamesa to glaciers was investigated from the paleolimnological records of subfossil chironomid assemblages from the Bohemian Forest, where glaciers disappeared before or during the Late Glacial period. As expected, water temperature seems to be the main driver of Diamesa distribution, and we determined that the relative abundance of Diamesa species was significantly higher at the sites with a mean July water temperature below 6.5 °C. The Diamesa-dominated stream communities seems to be endangered due to ongoing climate warming and this assumption is supported by our paleolimnological results from the Bohemian Forest lakes, where Diamesa has disappeared due to warming of lake inflows at the beginning of the Holocene. These findings strengthen the former suggestions that some Diamesa species could be used as an indicator for tracking recent environmental changes in vulnerable ecosystems of cold mountain streams.}, }
@article {pmid38869062, year = {2024}, author = {Ortula, NWA and Alcober, AMC and Travieza, DEC and Amor, FG and Morallos, APU and Tinaya, DWKD and Marticio, MRP and Pacaol, NF}, title = {Filipinos and Philippine government on public health vis-à-vis climate change: an interactive proposal.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdae095}, pmid = {38869062}, issn = {1741-3850}, }
@article {pmid38867124, year = {2024}, author = {Hannah, L and Irvine, A and Brito-Morales, I and Fuller, S and Davies, T and Tittensor, D and Reville, G and Shackell, N and Hennicke, J and Stanley, R}, title = {To save the high seas, plan for climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {630}, number = {8016}, pages = {298-301}, pmid = {38867124}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Animal Migration ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/methods/trends ; *Environmental Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; *Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid38866937, year = {2024}, author = {Ros, A and Brinker, A}, title = {Thermotactic behaviour in lacustrine and riverine forms of Salmo trutta and its relevance to an emerging parasitic disease (PKD) in the wake of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {13539}, pmid = {38866937}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Trout/parasitology/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Fish Diseases/parasitology ; Temperature ; Behavior, Animal/physiology ; Rivers ; Myxozoa/physiology/pathogenicity ; Cold Temperature ; Parasitic Diseases, Animal/parasitology/physiopathology ; Taxis Response/physiology ; }, abstract = {The thermotactic response of brown trout (Salmo trutta) was examined with the goal to investigate potential effects of the emerging temperature-dependent fatal trout disease PKD (proliferative kidney disease). First the differences in cold-water preferences of two forms of brown trout, lacustrine (migratory) and riverine, were determined. Second, it was studied whether this preference was changed in fish infected with PKD. The experiment involved a one-week habituation period at 14 °C in a two-chamber runway followed by a week of 3 °C temperature difference between the two runways. The fish could freely move between lanes via an opening at the end where food was provided. The temperature manipulation was repeated twice, and there were 3 trials per experimental group. All fish developed a clear spatial preference in the test. Lacustrine trout demonstrated a preference for warmer water, while riverine trout preferred cooler water. This may increase the risk to PKD in the lacustrine form. Most strikingly, riverine trout experimentally exposed to Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, the parasite that causes PKD, demonstrated stronger cold-seeking behaviour than control fish. Cold seeking behaviour suggests the occurrence of a disease-induced behavioural chill response, which may play an important role in disease recovery. This demonstrates the significance of protecting river connectivity and cold-water sanctuaries as management strategies for preserving salmonid populations in a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid38866736, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, G and Cai, W and Santoso, A}, title = {Variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole post-2100 reverses to a reduction despite persistent global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {5023}, pmid = {38866736}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Previous examination of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) response to greenhouse warming shows increased variability in the eastern pole but decreased variability in the western pole before 2100. The opposing response is due to a shallowing equatorial thermocline promoting sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the east, but a more stable atmosphere decreasing variability in equatorial zonal winds that weakens SST variability in the west. Post-2100, how the IOD may change remains unknown. Here we show that IOD variability weakens post-2100 in majority of models under a long-term high emission scenario to 2300. Post-2100, the atmosphere stability increases further and persistent ocean warming arrests or even reverses the eastern Indian Ocean shallowing thermocline. These changes conspire to drive decreased variability in both poles, reducing amplitude of moderate, strong and early-maturing positive IOD events. Our result highlights a nonlinear response of the IOD to long-term greenhouse warming under the high emission scenario.}, }
@article {pmid38866162, year = {2024}, author = {Tu, Y and Yao, Z and Guo, J and Yang, L and Zhu, Y and Yang, X and Shi, Z and Indree, T}, title = {Predicting the potential risk of Caragana shrub encroachment in the Eurasian steppe under anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173925}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173925}, pmid = {38866162}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and human activities drive widespread shrub encroachment in global grassland ecosystems, particularly in the Eurasian steppe. Caragana shrubs, the primary contributors to shrub encroachment in this region, play a crucial role in shaping the ecosystem's structure and function. Future changes in the suitable distribution range of Caragana species will directly affect the ecological security and sustainable socio-economic development of the Eurasian steppe ecosystem. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict Caragana shrub-dominated plant communities' current and future distribution in three major steppe subregions: the Black Sea-Kazakhstan steppe, the Tibetan Plateau steppe, and the Central Asian steppe. We assessed the potential risk of Caragana shrub encroachment by predicting changes in the suitable distribution area of 19 Caragana shrub species under future climate changes. Our research findings suggest that the expansion of Caragana species in different subregions of the Eurasian steppe is influenced by the effects of climate change in various ways. The distribution of Caragana species is primarily influenced by precipitation and temperature, and the global human modification (ghm) has a significant impact on the Central Asian and Tibetan Plateau subregions. Minimal changes are expected in the Black Sea-Kazakhstan subregion, a slight increase on the Tibetan Plateau, and a substantial rise in the Central Asian subregion, which suggests a higher potential risk of Caragana species shrub encroachment in that area. Our research provides valuable insights into the response of Caragana shrub encroachment to changing climates and human activities. It also has implications for the sustainable management of different areas of the vast Eurasian steppe ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid38865952, year = {2024}, author = {Baykara Mat, ST and Yilmaz, BN}, title = {Is awareness of climate change a predictor of eco-anxiety? Research within the scope of nursing students.}, journal = {Nurse education today}, volume = {140}, number = {}, pages = {106274}, doi = {10.1016/j.nedt.2024.106274}, pmid = {38865952}, issn = {1532-2793}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Understanding nursing students' awareness of climate change and its impact on their anxiety levels is crucial in representing a significant research area for the sustainability of healthcare services and the development of strategies to address climate change.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This study aims to determine nursing students' awareness of global climate change and eco-anxiety levels. Additionally, it seeks to uncover the relationship between these two factors.<br><br>DESIGN: During the academic year 2022-2023, this research was conducted with nursing students at a university in Istanbul, utilizing a cross-sectional and exploratory correlational design. The study involved 390 nursing students at the same university, aiming to reach the entire population without using any sampling method. Valid data were obtained from 374 students. The Student Information Form, University Students' Climate Change Awareness Scale and the Eco-anxiety Scale used as instruments for data collection. Subsequently, the data underwent analysis in a computational environment utilizing descriptive statistical methods and Pearson correlation analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Most of the participants were female and single. The mean "total global climate change awareness" of the students was 75.072&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;15.094, and the mean "general eco-anxiety" of the students was 1.158&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;0.629. A weak positive relationship was found between the total global climate change awareness and general environmental concerns of the students participating in the study at r&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.233 (p&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.000&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05). The level of awareness of climate change explains 5&#xa0;% of nursing students' eco-anxiety levels.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study emphasizes a significant relationship between climate change awareness and increased ecological anxiety. Filling a gap in the field due to the lack of specific research focusing on nursing students highlights the importance of maintaining awareness to prevent ecological anxiety from reaching undesirable levels. This approach is crucial in actively encouraging nurses to contribute to developing educational curricula and environmentally friendly health policies.}, }
@article {pmid38865135, year = {2024}, author = {Kazi, DS and Katznelson, E and Liu, CL and Al-Roub, NM and Chaudhary, RS and Young, DE and McNichol, M and Mickley, LJ and Kramer, DB and Cascio, WE and Bernstein, AS and Rice, MB}, title = {Climate Change and Cardiovascular Health: A Systematic Review.}, journal = {JAMA cardiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jamacardio.2024.1321}, pmid = {38865135}, issn = {2380-6591}, abstract = {IMPORTANCE: Climate change may increase the risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes by causing direct physiologic changes, psychological distress, and disruption of health-related infrastructure. Yet, the association between numerous climate change-related environmental stressors and the incidence of adverse cardiovascular events has not been systematically reviewed.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To review the current evidence on the association between climate change-related environmental stressors and adverse cardiovascular outcomes.<br><br>EVIDENCE REVIEW: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched to identify peer-reviewed publications from January 1, 1970, through November 15, 2023, that evaluated associations between environmental exposures and cardiovascular mortality, acute cardiovascular events, and related health care utilization. Studies that examined only nonwildfire-sourced particulate air pollution were excluded. Two investigators independently screened 20&#x202f;798 articles and selected 2564 for full-text review. Study quality was assessed using the Navigation Guide framework. Findings were qualitatively synthesized as substantial differences in study design precluded quantitative meta-analysis.<br><br>FINDINGS: Of 492 observational studies that met inclusion criteria, 182 examined extreme temperature, 210 ground-level ozone, 45 wildfire smoke, and 63 extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, dust storms, and droughts. These studies presented findings from 30 high-income countries, 17 middle-income countries, and 1 low-income country. The strength of evidence was rated as sufficient for extreme temperature; ground-level ozone; tropical storms, hurricanes, and cyclones; and dust storms. Evidence was limited for wildfire smoke and inadequate for drought and mudslides. Exposure to extreme temperature was associated with increased cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, but the magnitude varied with temperature and duration of exposure. Ground-level ozone amplified the risk associated with higher temperatures and vice versa. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, were associated with increased cardiovascular risk that persisted for many months after the initial event. Some studies noted a small increase in cardiovascular mortality, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests, and hospitalizations for ischemic heart disease after exposure to wildfire smoke, while others found no association. Older adults, racial and ethnic minoritized populations, and lower-wealth communities were disproportionately affected.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Several environmental stressors that are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change are associated with increased cardiovascular risk, but data on outcomes in low-income countries are lacking. Urgent action is needed to mitigate climate change-associated cardiovascular risk, particularly in vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid38863437, year = {2024}, author = {Monteiro Ramos, N and Castro, P}, title = {The climate battles of ideas: Minority discourses in readers' comments to climate change articles in the Portuguese press.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {9636625241254505}, doi = {10.1177/09636625241254505}, pmid = {38863437}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Today, the dominant climate change discourses affirm its anthropogenic nature and the urgency for policies. However, minority discourses remain active in the worldwide debate, refining arguments beyond simple denial-as shown regarding formal/official discourses of the United States and European far-right parties. This makes it necessary to examine the public understanding of climate change in everyday, informal minority discourses, looking at how they work for broadening societal space for "quarantining" the transformative potential of climate change meanings/policies. For this, we analyze readers' comments on climate change articles from two Portuguese newspapers, drawing from the frameworks of neutralization techniques and meaning barriers. Findings show that although denial of anthropogenic climate change remains, discursive efforts concentrate on person-stigmatizing depictions of climate change actors, delegitimized as "elites" in populist vocabularies, reflecting a consistent alignment between everyday discourses and those of the United States and European official far-right. We discuss the functions this pattern may have for the growth of climate change minority positions.}, }
@article {pmid38863246, year = {2024}, author = {Li, X and Black, TA and Zha, T and Jassal, RS and Nesic, Z and Lee, SC and Bourque, CP and Hao, S and Jin, C and Liu, P and Jia, X and Tian, Y}, title = {Long-term trend and interannual variation in evapotranspiration of a young temperate Douglas-fir stand over 2002-2022 reveals the impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/pce.15000}, pmid = {38863246}, issn = {1365-3040}, support = {//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //China Scholarship Council/ ; //Fluxnet Canada/ ; //an NSERC Discovery Grant (TAB) of the Natural Sciences/ ; //National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; //National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {The shortage of decades-long continuous measurements of ecosystem processes limits our understanding of how changing climate impacts forest ecosystems. We used continuous eddy-covariance and hydrometeorological data over 2002-2022 from a young Douglas-fir stand on Vancouver Island, Canada to assess the long-term trend and interannual variability in evapotranspiration (ET) and transpiration (T). Collectively, annual T displayed a decreasing trend over the 21 years with a rate of 1% yr[-1], which is attributed to the stomatal downregulation induced by rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Similarly, annual ET also showed a decreasing trend since evaporation stayed relatively constant. Variability in detrended annual ET was mostly controlled by the average soil water storage during the growing season (May-October). Though the duration and intensity of the drought did not increase, the drought-induced decreases in T and ET showed an increasing trend. This pattern may reflect the changes in forest structure, related to the decline in the deciduous understory cover during the stand development. These results suggest that the water-saving effect of stomatal regulation and water-related factors mostly determined the trend and variability in ET, respectively. This may also imply an increase in the limitation of water availability on ET in young forests, associated with the structural and compositional changes related to forest growth.}, }
@article {pmid38862905, year = {2024}, author = {Ccami-Bernal, F and Barriga-Chambi, F and Quispe-Vicuña, C and Fernandez-Guzman, D and Arredondo-Nontol, R and Arredondo-Nontol, M and Rojas-Rueda, D}, title = {Health science students' preparedness for climate change: a scoping review on knowledge, attitudes, and practices.}, journal = {BMC medical education}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {648}, pmid = {38862905}, issn = {1472-6920}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Curriculum ; Students, Health Occupations/psychology ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change (CC) is a global public health issue, and the role of health professionals in addressing its impact is crucial. However, to what extent health professionals are prepared to deal with CC-related health problems is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of health students about the CC.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a scoping review through systematic searches in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Proquest, and EBSCO. We included original scientific research with no language or time restrictions. Two authors independently reviewed and decided on the eligibility of the studies, then performed data extraction.<br><br>RESULTS: 21 studies were included, with a total of 9205 undergraduate nursing, medical, pharmacy, and public health students mainly. Most health science students (>&#x2009;75%) recognized human activities as the main cause of CC. However, they perceived a lack of knowledge on how to address CC. Moreover, we found inadequate coverage or limited development of CC in related curricula that may contribute to incomplete learning or low confidence in the theoretical and practical concepts of students.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings of our scoping review suggest that while health sciences students possess a general understanding of CC, there is a significant gap in their knowledge regarding its specific health impacts. To address this gap, there is a need for targeted education and training for future health care professionals that emphasizes the health effects of CC.}, }
@article {pmid38862358, year = {2024}, author = {Bogdziewicz, M and Kelly, D and Ascoli, D and Caignard, T and Chianucci, F and Crone, EE and Fleurot, E and Foest, JJ and Gratzer, G and Hagiwara, T and Han, Q and Journé, V and Keurinck, L and Kondrat, K and McClory, R and La Montagne, JM and Mundo, IA and Nussbaumer, A and Oberklammer, I and Ohno, M and Pearse, IS and Pesendorfer, MB and Resente, G and Satake, A and Shibata, M and Snell, RS and Szymkowiak, J and Touzot, L and Zwolak, R and Zywiec, M and Hacket-Pain, AJ}, title = {Evolutionary ecology of masting: mechanisms, models, and climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2024.05.006}, pmid = {38862358}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {Many perennial plants show mast seeding, characterized by synchronous and highly variable reproduction across years. We propose a general model of masting, integrating proximate factors (environmental variation, weather cues, and resource budgets) with ultimate drivers (predator satiation and pollination efficiency). This general model shows how the relationships between masting and weather shape the diverse responses of species to climate warming, ranging from no change to lower interannual variation or reproductive failure. The role of environmental prediction as a masting driver is being reassessed; future studies need to estimate prediction accuracy and the benefits acquired. Since reproduction is central to plant adaptation to climate change, understanding how masting adapts to shifting environmental conditions is now a central question.}, }
@article {pmid38861135, year = {2024}, author = {Weber, RW}, title = {Current and Future Effects of Climate Change on Airborne Allergens.}, journal = {Current allergy and asthma reports}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38861135}, issn = {1534-6315}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Delineation of the impact of elevated carbon dioxide and concomitant global warming on airborne allergens is performed.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: European tree pollen trends in general showed earlier start and end dates and increased total pollen release, with some differences both in locale and among species. Earlier flowering was also seen with grasses and weeds. In the case of some boreal trees, flowering was delayed due to a pre-seasonal requirement for necessary accumulated chilling temperature to achieve bud-set. Anthropogenic climate change induced rise in temperature and CO2 levels has resulted in demonstrable increases in aeroallergens. This has been most dramatic in tree pollen annual load, but also seen with grasses and weeds. Collected data is greatest for the Northern Hemisphere, especially the European continent, with supporting data from North America and Australia.}, }
@article {pmid38859734, year = {2024}, author = {Du, J and Bird, A and Boniface, G and Boniface, J and Mortenson, WB}, title = {The Perceived Role of Occupational Therapists in Climate Change.}, journal = {Canadian journal of occupational therapy. Revue canadienne d'ergotherapie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {84174241259304}, doi = {10.1177/00084174241259304}, pmid = {38859734}, issn = {1911-9828}, abstract = {Introduction. In 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) predicted that climate change would cause thousands of additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress alone between the years of 2030 and 2050. With such health consequences and environmental changes, climate change is impacting human occupations globally. However, there is a gap in the literature regarding the occupational therapists' role in climate change, particularly in the Canadian context. Objectives. Our research aimed to explore what is the perceived role of occupational therapists in climate change and climate action from the perspective of Canadian occupational therapists and international experts. Methods. This qualitative study used interpretive description methodology. We recruited 12 occupational therapists, including 4 research experts in the field. We conducted semi-structured interviews with each participant. Data were analyzed thematically. Results. This study uncovered three themes that focused on the complex interconnections between climate challenges and climate actions that occupational therapists are wrestling with personally, clinically, and professionally. Specifically, this study emphasized the importance of supporting individual occupational therapists with their personal challenges, integrating climate actions into clinical practices, and incorporating climate change and climate justice into occupational therapy curricula and professional advocacy. Conclusions. The environment, including the planet's ecosystem, is a fundamental component in many models of occupational therapy practice. This research provides a rich understanding in the themes of occupational therapists' perceptions of climate change and climate actions, particularly within a Canadian context.}, }
@article {pmid38858558, year = {2024}, author = {Graham, F}, title = {Daily briefing: How to figure out which climate-change policies really work.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-01737-7}, pmid = {38858558}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38857944, year = {2024}, author = {Situma, S and Nyakarahuka, L and Omondi, E and Mureithi, M and Mweu, MM and Muturi, M and Mwatondo, A and Dawa, J and Konongoi, L and Khamadi, S and Clancey, E and Lofgren, E and Osoro, E and Ngere, I and Breiman, RF and Bakamutumaho, B and Muruta, A and Gachohi, J and Oyola, SO and Njenga, MK and Singh, D}, title = {Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014737}, pmid = {38857944}, issn = {2059-7908}, mesh = {*Rift Valley Fever/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Animals ; Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; Livestock ; Risk Factors ; Uganda/epidemiology ; Cluster Analysis ; Disease Outbreaks ; Kenya/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterising recent RVF disease events in East Africa.<br><br>METHODS: Data on 100 disease events (2008-2022) from Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modelled against possible geoecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980 and 2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and three livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR, 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geoecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1&#xb0;C increase in temperature and a 1-unit increase in NDVI, one months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1, 1.2) and 1.93 (95% CI 1.01, 3.71), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed a significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12-0.3&#xb0;C/decade, p<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (p<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively.<br><br>CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics.}, }
@article {pmid38857791, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, Z and Shi, Y and Tang, Q and Cheng, M and Zhang, Y}, title = {Capturing woody aboveground biomass historical change and potential under climate change using Landsat time-series for afforestation in dryland of China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173886}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173886}, pmid = {38857791}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Capturing long-term dynamics and the potential under climate change of woody aboveground biomass (AGB) is imperative for calculating and raising carbon sequestration of afforestation in dryland. It is always been a great challenge to accurately capture AGB dynamics of sparse woody vegetation mixed with grassland using only Landsat time-series, resulting in changing trajectory of woody AGB estimates cannot accurately reflect woody vegetation growth regularity in dryland. In this study, surface reflectance (SR) sensitive to woody AGB was firstly selected and interannual time-series of composited SR was smoothed using S-G filter for each pixel, and then optimal machine learning algorithm was selected to estimate woody AGB time-series. Pixels that have reached AGB potential were detected based on the AGB changing trajectory, and the potential was spatial-temporal extended using random forest model combining environmental variables under current climate condition and CMIP6 climate models. Results show that: 1) minimum value composite based on NIRv during Jul.-Sep. is more capable of explaining woody AGB variation in dryland (R = 0.87, p < 0.01), and Random Forest (RF) model has the best performance in estimating woody AGB (R[2] = 0.75, RMSE = 4.74 t·ha[-1]) among sis commonly used machine learning models. 2) Annual woody AGB estimates can be perfectly fitted with a logistic growth curve (R[2] = 0.97, p < 0.001) indicating explicit growth regularity of woody vegetation, which provides physiological foundation for determining woody AGB potential. 3) Woody AGB potential can be accurately simulated by RF combining environmental variables (R[2] = 0.95, RMSE = 2.89 t·ha[-1]), and current woody AGB still has a potential of small increase, whereas the overall losses of woody AGB potential were observed in 2030, 2040 and 2050 under CMIP6 SSP-RCP scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid38855470, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, Y and Zhao, Y and Miao, G and Zhou, X and Yu, C and Cao, Y}, title = {Predicting the potential distribution of Dendrolimus punctatus and its host Pinus massoniana in China under climate change conditions.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1362020}, pmid = {38855470}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Dendrolimus punctatus, a major pest endemic to the native Pinus massoniana forests in China, displays major outbreak characteristics and causes severe destructiveness. In the context of global climate change, this study aims to investigate the effects of climatic variations on the distribution of D. punctatus and its host, P. massoniana.<br><br>METHODS: We predict their potential suitable distribution areas in the future, thereby offering a theoretical basis for monitoring and controlling D. punctatus, as well as conserving P. massoniana forest resources. By utilizing existing distribution data on D. punctatus and P. massoniana, coupled with relevant climatic variables, this study employs an optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model for predictions. With feature combinations set as linear and product (LP) and the regularization multiplier at 0.1, the model strikes an optimal balance between complexity and accuracy.<br><br>RESULTS: The results indicate that the primary climatic factors influencing the distribution of D. punctatus and P. massoniana include the minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, and annual precipitation. Under the influence of climate change, the distribution areas of P. massoniana and its pests exhibit a high degree of similarity, primarily concentrated in the region south of the Qinling-Huaihe line in China. In various climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas for these two species may expand to varying degrees, exhibiting a tendency to shift toward higher latitude regions. Particularly under the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), D. punctatus is projected to expand northwards at the fastest rate.<br><br>DISCUSSION: By 2050, its migration direction is expected to closely align with that of P. massoniana, indicating that the pine forests will continue to be affected by the pest. These findings provide crucial empirical references for region-specific prevention of D. punctatus infestations and for the rational utilization and management of P. massoniana resources.}, }
@article {pmid38855196, year = {2024}, author = {Atwa, W and Almazroi, AA and Ayub, N}, title = {Reliable renewable energy forecasting for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {PeerJ. Computer science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e2067}, pmid = {38855196}, issn = {2376-5992}, abstract = {Accurate prediction of electricity generation from diverse renewable energy sources (RES) plays a pivotal role in optimizing power schedules within RES, contributing to the collective effort to combat climate change. While prior research often focused on individual energy sources in isolation, neglecting intricate interactions among multiple sources, this limitation frequently leads to inaccurate estimations of total power generation. In this study, we introduce a hybrid architecture designed to address these challenges, incorporating advanced artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The hybrid model seamlessly integrates a gated recurrent unit (GRU) and a ResNext model, and it is tuned with the modified jaya algorithm (MJA) to capture localized correlations among different energy sources. Leveraging its nonlinear time-series properties, the model integrates meteorological conditions and specific energy source data. Additionally, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to extract linear time-series data characteristics for each energy source. Application of the proposed AI-infused approach to a renewable energy system demonstrates its effectiveness and feasibility in the context of climate change mitigation. Results reveal the superior accuracy of the hybrid framework compared to more complex models such as decision trees and ResNet. Specifically, our proposed method achieved remarkable performance, boasting the lowest error rates with a normalized RMSE of 6.51 and a normalized MAPE of 4.34 for solar photovoltaic (PV), highlighting its exceptional precision in terms of mean absolute errors. A detailed sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the influence of every element in the hybrid framework, emphasizing the importance of energy correlation patterns. Comparative assessments underscore the increased accuracy and stability of the suggested AI-infused framework when compared to other methods.}, }
@article {pmid38854588, year = {2023}, author = {de Schrijver, E and Sivaraj, S and Raible, CC and Franco, OH and Chen, K and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM}, title = {Nationwide projections of heat- and cold-related mortality impacts under various climate change and population development scenarios in Switzerland.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {094010}, pmid = {38854588}, issn = {1748-9326}, abstract = {Climate change and progressive population development (i.e., ageing and changes in population size) are altering the temporal patterns of temperature-related mortality in Switzerland. However, limited evidence exists on how current trends in heat- and cold-related mortality would evolve in future decades under composite scenarios of global warming and population development. Moreover, the contribution of these drivers to future mortality impacts is not well-understood. Therefore, we aimed to project heat- and cold-related mortality in Switzerland under various combinations of emission and population development scenarios and to disentangle the contribution of each of these two drivers using high-resolution mortality and temperature data. We combined age-specific (<75 and ⩾75 years) temperature-mortality associations in each district in Switzerland (1990-2010), estimated through a two-stage time series analysis, with 2 km downscaled CMIP5 temperature data and population and mortality rate projections under two scenarios: RCP4.5/SSP2 and RCP8.5/SSP5. We derived heat and cold-related mortality for different warming targets (1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C) using different emission and population development scenarios and compared this to the baseline period (1990-2010). Heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 312 (116; 510) in the 1990-2010 period to 1274 (537; 2284) annual deaths under 2.0 °C of warming (RCP4.5/SSP2) and to 1871 (791; 3284) under 3.0 °C of warming (RCP8.5/SSP5). Cold-related mortality will substantially increase from 4069 (1898; 6016) to 6558 (3223; 9589) annual deaths under 2.0 °C (RCP4.5/SSP2) and to 5997 (2951; 8759) under 3.0 °C (RCP8.5/SSP5). Moreover, while the increase in cold-related mortality is solely driven by population development, for heat, both components (i.e., changes in climate and population) have a similar contribution of around 50% to the projected heat-related mortality trends. In conclusion, our findings suggest that both heat- and cold-related mortality will substantially increase under all scenarios of climate change and population development in Switzerland. Population development will lead to an increase in cold-related mortality despite the decrease in cold temperature under warmer scenarios. Whereas the combination of the progressive warming of the climate and population development will substantially increase and exacerbate the total temperature-related mortality burden in Switzerland.}, }
@article {pmid38854162, year = {2024}, author = {Ladányi, M and Divéky-Ertsey, A and Csambalik, L}, title = {Editorial: Adaptation of traditional crop cultivars to climate change in terms of nutritional aspects.}, journal = {Frontiers in nutrition}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1427068}, doi = {10.3389/fnut.2024.1427068}, pmid = {38854162}, issn = {2296-861X}, }
@article {pmid38852874, year = {2024}, author = {Golchin, A and Misaghi, M}, title = {Investigating the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on SOC storage and cumulative CO2 emissions in forest soils across altitudinal gradients using the century model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173758}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173758}, pmid = {38852874}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigated the impact of climate change, grazing, manure application, and liming on soil organic carbon (SOC) stock and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in forest soils across different altitudes. Despite similar soil texture, acidity, and salinity across elevations, SOC stock significantly increased with altitude due to cooler temperatures and higher precipitation. The highest SOC stock (97.46 t ha[-1]) was observed at 2000-2500 m, compared to the lowest (44.23 t ha[-1]) at 500-1000 m. The Century C Model accurately predicted SOC stock, with correlation and determination coefficients exceeding 0.98. A climate change scenario projecting decreased precipitation (2.15 mm per decade) and increased temperature (0.4 °C) revealed potential SOC stock losses ranging from 28.36 to 36.35 %, particularly at higher altitudes. Grazing further decreased SOC stock, with a more pronounced effect at higher elevations. However, manure application (40 t ha[-1] every four years) and liming (7-10 t ha[-1] every three years) had positive effects on SOC stock, again amplified at higher altitudes and with an increase in lime application rate. In scenarios combining climate change with manure application and climate change with liming, manure application and liming mitigated some negative impacts of climate change, but could not fully offset them, resulting in 1.49-5.42 % and 0.39-4.07 % decreases respectively. Simulations of cumulative CO2 emissions mirrored the distribution of SOC stock, with higher emissions observed at higher altitudes and with management practices that increased SOC stock. This study emphasizes the critical role of conserving high-altitude forest soils and implementing optimal forest management strategies to combat climate change by minimizing SOC losses.}, }
@article {pmid38852417, year = {2024}, author = {Bojer, AK and Woldetsadik, M and Biru, BH}, title = {Machine learning and CORDEX-Africa regional model for assessing the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Gibe Watershed, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {121394}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121394}, pmid = {38852417}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of our time, profoundly impacting global water resources and sustainability. This study aimed to predict the long-term effects of climate change on the Gilgel Gibe watershed by integrating machine learning (ML) methods and climate model scenarios. Utilizing an ensemble mean of four regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa project, we forecast future climatic conditions. Although global and regional climate simulations offer valuable insights, their limitations necessitate alternative approaches, such as ML, for improved accuracy. Employing an ensemble ML model with Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), and CatBoost (CB) algorithms, we assessed various bias-correction methods using historical data from 1993 to 2009. Our results highlight the effectiveness of distribution mapping (DM) in capturing temperature variability and precipitation patterns, using the power transpiration (PT) method to represent precipitation variability. Projections indicate a decline in future precipitation under the RCP 8.5 (-32.2%) and SSP 4.5 (-88.8%) for 2024-2049, with further decreases expected for 2050-2099. Conversely, temperatures will rise under RCP 4.5 (TMAX 0.67 °C) and RCP 8.5 (TMAX 0.25 °C and TMIN 1.11 °C) in the near term, exacerbated by higher emissions under SSP 4.5 and 8.5. By leveraging an ensemble mean of four observed RCMs in an ML framework, our study successfully reproduced future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and (CMIP6) climatic datasets, with the CB model demonstrating superior performance in predicting future precipitation and temperature trends. These findings offer valuable insights for shaping future climate scenarios and informing policy decisions for the Gilgel Gibe Watershed, thereby enhancing water resource management in the basin and its environs.}, }
@article {pmid38852411, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, B and Wu, X}, title = {A comprehensive analysis to optimizing national-scale protected area systems under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {121408}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121408}, pmid = {38852411}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {With the intensification of climate change, incorporating climate information into protected areas planning has become crucial in reducing biodiversity loss. However, the current natural reserve system in China does not take climate information into account. Therefore, we assessed the effectiveness of existing protected areas through climate refuge and connectivity rankings, and Zonation software was used to identify the ecological priority zone in China by combining climate indicators and human footprint. The results show that the current natural protected areas in China have certain limitations in dealing with climate change, and some protected areas may struggle to maintain their value in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Moreover, China still has lots of important areas that can maintain biodiversity under climate change, but most of them are not covered by protected areas. The results provide support for the planning of China's nature protected area system in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38852394, year = {2024}, author = {Krohn, LM and Klimpel, F and Béziat, P and Bau, M}, title = {Impacts of COVID-19 and climate change on wastewater-derived substances in urban drinking water: Evidence from gadolinium-based contrast agents in tap water from Berlin, Germany.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {259}, number = {}, pages = {121847}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2024.121847}, pmid = {38852394}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {Anthropogenic gadolinium from MRI contrast agents has been detected in surface waters worldwide. It is released with the treated effluents of wastewater treatment plants, similar to other wastewater-derived substances (WWDS) such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products. We determined concentrations of the rare earth elements in tap water from Berlin, Germany, using an automated preconcentration procedure that is both time- and cost-efficient. Anthropogenic gadolinium concentrations in Berlin's tap water increased on average 30-fold between 2009 and 2021. However, the tap water composition responded quickly to the reduced number of MRI scans during the COVID-19 pandemic, and some districts show a decrease from 2016 to 2021. Since climate change causes groundwater levels to decline in many regions, this needs to be mitigated by artificial groundwater recharge with surface water. This will inevitably lead to an increase in WWDS in potable water, which can be cost-efficiently monitored using anthropogenic gadolinium as tracer.}, }
@article {pmid38851369, year = {2024}, author = {Abdullah, MA and Chuah, LF and Abdullah, SB and Bokhari, A and Syed, A and Elgorban, AM and Akhtar, MS and Al-Shwaiman, HA and Asif, S}, title = {From Port to Planet: Assessing NO2 Pollution and Climate Change Effects in Maritime Zones.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {119328}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119328}, pmid = {38851369}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {The growing effects of climate change on Malaysia's coastal ecology heighten worries about air pollution, specifically caused by urbanization and industrial activity in the maritime sector. Trucks and vessels are particularly noteworthy for their substantial contribution to gas emissions, including nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which is the primary gas released in port areas. The application of advanced analysis techniques was spurred by the air pollution resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels such as fuel oil, natural gas, and gasoline in vessels. The study utilized satellite photos captured by the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on the Sentinel-5P satellite to evaluate the levels of NO2 gas pollution in Malaysia's port areas and exclusive economic zone. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, unrestricted gas emissions led to persistently high levels of NO2 in the analyzed areas. Nevertheless, the temporary cessation of marine industry operations caused by the pandemic, along with the halting of vessels to prevent the spread of COVID-19, resulted in a noticeable decrease in NO2 gas pollution. In light of these favourable advancements, it is imperative to emphasize the need for continuous investigation and collaborative endeavours to further alleviate air contamination in Malaysian port regions, while simultaneously acknowledging the wider consequences of climate change on the coastal ecology. The study underscores the interdependence of air pollution, maritime activities, and climate change. It emphasizes the need for comprehensive strategies that tackle both immediate environmental issues and the long-term sustainability and resilience of coastal ecosystems in the context of global climate challenges.}, }
@article {pmid38851330, year = {2024}, author = {Luo, W and Sun, C and Yang, S and Chen, W and Sun, Y and Li, Z and Liu, J and Tao, W and Tao, J}, title = {Contrasting range changes and drivers of four forest foundation species under future climate change in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173784}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173784}, pmid = {38851330}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Forest foundation species, vital for shaping community structure and dynamics through non-trophic level interactions, are key to forest succession and sustainability. Despite their ecological importance, the habitat ranges of these species in China and their responses to future climate change remain unclear. Our study employed the optimal MaxEnt model to assess the range shifts and their essential drivers of four typical forest foundation species from three climatic zones in China under climate scenarios, including Acer tegmentosum, Acer pseudo-sieboldianum (temperate zone), Quercus glandulifera (subtropical zone), and Ficus hispida (tropical zone). The optimal MaxEnt model exhibited high evaluation indices (AUC values > 0.90) for the four foundation species, indicating excellent predictive performance. Currently, we observed that A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum are predominantly inhabited temperate forest areas in northeastern China, Q. glandulifera is primarily concentrated in subtropical forests in southeastern China, and F. hispida is mainly distributed across the tropical forests in southern China. Climate factors, particularly temperature, emerged as the primary environmental factors influencing the potential range of forest foundation species. Moreover, precipitation strongly influenced the potential range of A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum, while elevation exhibited a greater impact on the range of Q. glandulifera and F. hispida. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas for A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum tend to expand southward, F. hispida tends to expand northward, while Q. glandulifera exhibited a tendency to contract towards the center. This study advances our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest foundation species in China under climate change, providing critical insights for conservation efforts and sustainable forest management practices.}, }
@article {pmid38851080, year = {2024}, author = {Gong, J and Wang, K and Zeng, J and Jiang, Z}, title = {Climate change dominates the interannual variation of carbon export efficiency in each season in the Northern Gulf of Mexico during 1998-2011.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {199}, number = {}, pages = {106564}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106564}, pmid = {38851080}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Carbon export efficiency is a key indicator of the capacity of biological pump, but the controlling mechanism of the efficiency remains unclear. Our findings revealed that interannual variations in seasonal carbon export efficiency are determined by direct factors including riverine nutrient fluxes, stratification, residence time. These direct factors are finally attributed to two indirect factors (human activities and climate change). We quantified the absolute contributions of direct and indirect factors to carbon export efficiency. The results showed that the carbon export efficiency in the northern Gulf of Mexico in spring (summer; autumn; winter) was driven by human activities, which accounted for an absolute contribution of 16.02% (7.20%; 4.00%; 8.49%, respectively) through riverine nutrient fluxes, and by climate change, which accounted for an absolute contribution of 33.51% (21.43%; 25.73%; 15.80%, respectively) through stratification and water residence time. Moreover, carbon export efficiency could be predicted by MEI of 8 months earlier.}, }
@article {pmid38850926, year = {2024}, author = {Tran, TN and Tapas, MR and Do, SK and Etheridge, R and Lakshmi, V}, title = {Investigating the impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes in the Tar-Pamlico River basin, North Carolina.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {121375}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121375}, pmid = {38850926}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Evaluating the forthcoming impacts of climate change is important for formulating efficient and flexible approaches to water resource management. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are primary tools that enable scientists to study both past and potential future climate changes, as well as their impacts on policies and actions. In this work, we quantify the future projected impacts of hydroclimatic extremes on the coastal, risk-prone Tar-Pamlico River basin in North Carolina using GCMs from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These models incorporate projected future societal development scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) as defined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Specifically, we have utilized historical residential expansion data, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Interquartile Range (IQR) method for analyzing extremes from 2024 to 2100. Our findings include: (1) a trend toward wetter conditions is identified with an increase in flood events toward 2100; (2) projected increases in the severity of flood peaks are found, quantified by a rise of 21% compared to the 2000-2020 period; (3) downstream regions are forecast to experience severe droughts up to 2044; and (4) low-lying and coastal regions are found as particularly susceptible to higher flood peaks and more frequent drought events between 2045 and 2100. This work provides valuable insights into the anticipated shifts in natural disaster patterns and supports decision-makers and authorities in promoting adaptive strategies and sustainable policies to address challenges posed by future climate changes in the Tar-Pamlico region and throughout the state of North Carolina, United States.}, }
@article {pmid38850907, year = {2024}, author = {Krawczyk, R and Osyczka, P and Siebielec, G and Nobis, M}, title = {Fires in the face of climate change: Indicators of fire disturbance in heath areas - Inference from military training lands.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {121373}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121373}, pmid = {38850907}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Global warming significantly affects the frequency and intensity of wildfires in many fire-prone areas of the world and fire disturbance regimes are changing rapidly. Alongside this, controlled burning is often considered or implemented as an alternative method for nature protection. Here, we studied the post-fire secondary succession in dry heath habitat located in military training grounds to recognise the impact of fire on the effectiveness and rate of ecosystem recovery. We focus particularly on identifying indicator species for a given successional phase of Central European dry heath habitats and assessing their value for dating the last fire disturbance. The research involved 60 vegetation patches (plots of 25 m[2]), which were assigned to four post-fire age classes, namely: 1-5 years (Class A), 6-10 years (Class B), 11-15 years (Class C), and >15 years (Class D). In each study plot, species diversity and coverage of lichens, bryophytes and vascular plants were examined in addition to the physicochemical properties of the soil substrate. Cryptogams and vascular plants clearly differ in terms of the secondary succession pattern; specific sets of cryptogams correspond well to particular post-fire classes and are therefore good determinants of the post-fire succession stage. Spontaneous succession of plant vegetation eventually leads to complete recovery of the heath in a relatively short time. Nevertheless, great vegetation dynamics in the first years after a fire disturbance may result in seemingly different directions of succession. Post-fire classes did not differ noticeably in terms of soil properties, it follows that the effects of fire on soil conditions are negligible; though, a significant upward trend was observed for exchangeable form of K throughout the succession process. Our results indicate that sporadic fires reduce the undesirable overgrowth of heathlands or psamophilous grasslands and generally have a little negative side-effect on the ecosystem. The revealed succession patterns and defined sets of species characteristic for subsequent post-fire age classes are applicable to dating fire disturbances, regardless of whether the fire was planned or spontaneous.}, }
@article {pmid38850278, year = {2024}, author = {Félix-Burruel, RE and Larios, E and González, EJ and Búrquez, A}, title = {Population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution is associated with climate change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcae094}, pmid = {38850278}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate change is a global phenomenon species are experiencing, which in arid regions will translate into more frequent and intense drought. The Sonoran Desert is becoming hotter and drier, and many organisms are rapidly changing in abundance and distribution. These population attributes directly depend on the dynamics of the population, which in turn depends on the vital rates of its individuals; yet few studies have documented the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of keystone species such as the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). Although saguaros have traits that enable them to withstand present environmental conditions, climate change could make them vulnerable if forced beyond their tolerance limits.<br><br>METHODS: We evaluated the effect of climate change on 13 saguaro populations spanning most of the species' distribution range. Using field data from 2014 to 2016, we built an integral projection model (IPM) describing the environmentally-explicit dynamics of the populations. We used this IPM, along with projections of two climate change and one no-change scenarios, to predict population sizes (N) and growth rates (&#x3bb;) from 2017 to 2099 and compared these scenarios to demonstrate the effect of climate change on saguaro's future.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: We found that all populations will decline, mainly due to future increases in drought, mostly hindering recruitment. However, the decline will be differential across populations, since those located near the coast will be affected by harsher drought events than those located further inland.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that climate change and its associated increase in drought pose a significant threat to the saguaro cactus populations in the Sonoran Desert. Our findings indicate that the recruitment of saguaros, vital for establishing new individuals, is particularly vulnerable to intensifying drought conditions. Importantly, regional climate trends will have different impacts on saguaro populations across their distribution range.}, }
@article {pmid38850046, year = {2024}, author = {Badger, MS}, title = {The Intersection of Geriatrics, Climate Change, and Wilderness Medicine: Education is Critical.}, journal = {Wilderness &amp; environmental medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {10806032241245399}, doi = {10.1177/10806032241245399}, pmid = {38850046}, issn = {1545-1534}, abstract = {According to the US Census, for the first time in history, older adults are projected to exceed the number of children by 2035. These seniors are headed to the outdoors in increasing numbers and face unique risks. They benefit from careful pre-event evaluation planning to maintain their health in wilderness environments. Climate change is affecting all of us, but seniors are considered an especially vulnerable group. This vulnerability needs to be addressed not only when older adults head into the wilderness but also when the wilderness "comes to them" in areas where wilderness medicine and disaster medicine overlap. Education of both providers and patients is vital. This article aims to discuss the special needs of older adults/seniors /elders (defined as those over 65 unless otherwise indicated) in the wilderness as well as the vulnerability of older adults to climate change, both during planned wilderness activities and when the wilderness "comes to them" because of climate change, and to identify opportunities for education and adaptation of patients and education of physicians and wilderness and disaster responders to care for these older patients. The PubMed and Google Scholar Database search engines were utilized to review relevant English language publications between 2000 and 2023 that addressed individuals over 65 and explored the overlap of geriatrics (aged over 65), wilderness and disaster medicine, and climate change and create a perspective summary. Because of increased numbers of older adults heading into the wilderness for outdoor activities or having wilderness thrust upon them due to climate change, cross training of all specialties including the fields of emergency, geriatrics, wilderness medicine, and disaster medicine is needed in collaboration with other organizations and search and rescue. Response agencies must recognize that training in wilderness medicine provides a background for practitioners working in dangerous and remote settings and ought to seek out individuals with such skills when placing responders in the field. Climate change is making these intersections and the need for this education more urgent with time.}, }
@article {pmid38849182, year = {2024}, author = {Dinh, NTT and Tran, J and Hensher, M}, title = {Measuring and valuing the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation: a scoping review.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e402-e409}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00095-0}, pmid = {38849182}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Despite growing interest in the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation actions, there is little recent evidence on the appropriateness of the measurement techniques being used to estimate them. We did a scoping review to identify the different approaches that have been used to measure and value health co-benefits in the climate change mitigation literature. We searched three databases (EBSCOhost, Web of Science, and MEDLINE Ovid) to identify relevant papers published between 2010 and 2023, and identified 267 studies that met our inclusion criteria to be included in the review. We found that health co-benefit studies are more typically published in the environmental science literature than in health journals. Despite calls going back many years for greater standardisation in methods, we found a highly diverse set of health measures and valuation approaches still in use. The majority of studies (232 [87%]) measured only near-term health co-benefits from reduced air pollution, and only 13 (5%) studies incorporated the longer term health benefits from mitigating the future health harms of climate change. Just over half the studies included monetary valuation of health co-benefits, using a variety of valuation approaches. Public and planetary health researchers, epidemiologists, and health economists should seek to engage more actively with those undertaking research in health co-benefits. This would allow consideration of how best to reconcile differing perspectives and techniques, how to achieve better standardisation of measurement and valuation, and how to extend the generally narrow focus of current health co-benefit studies to become more holistic and comprehensive.}, }
@article {pmid38849180, year = {2024}, author = {Garfin, DR and Wong-Parodi, G}, title = {Climate change anxiety, hurricane exposure, and climate change actions and attitudes: results from a representative, probability-based survey of US Gulf Coast residents.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e378-e390}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00100-1}, pmid = {38849180}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Cyclonic Storms ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Anxiety/epidemiology ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Texas ; Florida ; Longitudinal Studies ; Aged ; Attitude ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Prospective Studies ; Young Adult ; Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/epidemiology/psychology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Exposure to climate change-related threats (eg, hurricanes) has been associated with mental health symptoms, including post-traumatic stress symptoms. Yet it is unclear whether climate change anxiety, which is understudied in representative samples, is a specific mental health threat, action motivator, or both, particularly in populations exposed to climate-change related disasters. We sought to examine the associations between exposure to hurricanes, climate change anxiety, and climate change actions and attitudes in a representative sample of US Gulf Coast residents.<br><br>METHODS: This study used data from a 5-year, representative, prospectively assessed, probability-based, longitudinal cohort sample of residents in Texas and Florida (USA) exposed to exogenous catastrophic hurricanes rated category 3 or greater. Participants were adults aged 18 years and older and were initially recruited from the Ipsos KnowledgePanel in the 60 h before Hurricane Irma (Sept 8-11, 2017). Relationships between climate change anxiety, hurricane exposure, hurricane-related post-traumatic stress symptoms, general functional impairment, and climate change-related individual-level actions (eg, eating a plant-based diet and driving more fuel efficient cars) and collective-level actions (eg, petition signing and donating money) and climate change action attitudes were evaluated using structural equation modelling.<br><br>FINDINGS: The final survey was completed by 1479 individuals (787 [53&#xb7;2%] women and 692 [46&#xb7;8%] men). Two climate change anxiety subscales (cognitive-emotional impairment and perceived experience of climate change) were confirmed using confirmatory factor analysis. Mean values were low for both climate change anxiety subscales: cognitive-emotional impairment (mean 1&#xb7;31 [SD 0&#xb7;63], range 1-5) and perceived climate change experience (mean 1&#xb7;67 [SD 0&#xb7;89], range 1-5); these subscales differentially predicted outcomes. The cognitive-emotional impairment subscale did not significantly correlate with actions or attitudes; its relationship with general functional impairment was attenuated by co-occurring hurricane-related post-traumatic stress symptoms, which were highly correlated with general functional impairment in all three models (all p<0&#xb7;0001). The perceived climate change experience subscale correlated with climate change attitudes (b=0&#xb7;57, 95% CI 0&#xb7;47-0&#xb7;66; p<0&#xb7;0001), individual-level actions (b=0&#xb7;34, 0&#xb7;21-0&#xb7;47; p<0&#xb7;0001), and collective-level actions (b=0&#xb7;22, 0&#xb7;10-0&#xb7;33; p=0&#xb7;0002), but was not significantly associated with general functional impairment in any of the final models. Hurricane exposure correlated with climate change-related individual-level (b=0&#xb7;26, 0&#xb7;10-0&#xb7;42; p=0&#xb7;0011) and collective-level (b=0&#xb7;41, 0&#xb7;26-0&#xb7;56; p<0&#xb7;0001) actions.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Expanded treatment for post-traumatic stress symptoms after disasters could help address climate change-related psychological distress; experiences with climate change and natural hazards could be inflection points to motivate action.<br><br>FUNDING: National Science Foundation and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.}, }
@article {pmid38849179, year = {2024}, author = {Lau, SSS and Fong, JWL and van Rijsbergen, N and McGuire, L and Ho, CCY and Cheng, MCH and Tse, D}, title = {Emotional responses and psychological health among young people amid climate change, Fukushima's radioactive water release, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the mediating roles of media exposure and nature connectedness: a cross-national analysis.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e365-e377}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00097-4}, pmid = {38849179}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Ukraine ; Adolescent ; Female ; Young Adult ; Male ; Adult ; *Fukushima Nuclear Accident ; *Mental Health ; Middle East ; *Emotions ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Media Exposure ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: New global crises are emerging, while existing global crises remain unabated. Coping with climate change, the radioactive water released into the Pacific Ocean subsequent to the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East (hereafter referred to as the wars) as individual crises can negatively affect the psychological health of young people, but little is known about the compounded impact of multiple crises. We aimed to examine: (1) the emotional responses of young people towards each individual crisis, (2) how aggregate levels of emotional engagement in global crises might pose different potential trajectories in psychological health, and (3) the protective or exacerbating role of media exposure and nature connectedness as mediators on psychological health outcomes of young people.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a cross-national online survey among young people (aged 18-29 years) from China, Portugal, South Africa, the USA, and the UK. We adopted stratified purposive sampling and distributed the survey using online platforms (www.wenjuan.com and www.prolific.com). Individuals were eligible for inclusion in our analysis if they were literate in Chinese or English and had no mental disorders diagnosed within the past 12 months. Participants were asked questions on their demographic characteristics and time spent on social media, including proportion of time exposed to media pertaining to global crises of interest, and they completed surveys based on validated scales that measure depression, anxiety, stress, and wellbeing, as well as emotional responses to each global crisis and nature relatedness. We assessed the survey results using descriptive statistics, ANOVA tests, cluster analysis for individual emotional responses, and structural equation modelling for the aggregate measure of emotional engagement towards individual global crises.<br><br>FINDINGS: Between Oct 20 and Nov 3, 2023, 2579 individuals participated in the survey, of whom 400 participants from each country (200 male and 200 female participants) were included in our analysis (mean age 24&#xb7;36 years [SD 2&#xb7;86]). The mean emotional engagement varied between the global crises of interest (on a scale from 0 to 68, where 0 indicates no emotional response and 68 indicates strong emotional responses across 17 different emotions; wars: 32&#xb7;42 [SD 14&#xb7;57]; climate change: 28&#xb7;79 [14&#xb7;17]; radioactive water: 21&#xb7;26 [16&#xb7;08]), and emotional engagement also varied by country; for instance, for respondents from China, mean emotional engagement in radioactive water was relatively high (39&#xb7;15 [10&#xb7;72]) compared with the other countries, and for respondents from the USA, engagement with the wars was relatively low (29&#xb7;45 [15&#xb7;78]). We found significant variations in the level of emotional engagement between different crises, with distinct emotional profiles observed among individual countries. To assess the role of media exposure and nature connectedness on psychological outcomes, using structural equation modelling, we constructed a multi-country model comprising Portugal, South Africa, the USA, and the UK, and a standalone model for China. These models elucidated associations between emotional engagement and psychological distress and wellbeing, explaining substantial portions of the variance in both. Notably, while greater emotional engagement in the ecological crises (ie, climate change and radioactive water) generally predicted worse psychological health outcomes, we found the direction of effect for war crises to have positive outcomes for mental health in the standalone China model. Additionally, we found that media exposure mediated the negative effect of wars on psychological distress in the multi-country model, and positive psychological wellbeing in the standalone China model. Moreover, nature connectedness emerged as a potent mediator, effectively mitigating the adverse mental health effects of emotional engagement with some crises, such as radioactive water and climate change.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Our findings offer valuable insights into the nuanced dynamics of emotional engagement in global crises and its implications for mental health outcomes among young people across diverse global contexts. Further research is needed to understand the contribution of ongoing and new global crises towards a compounded negative future outlook on young people's mental health to identify effective communication and intervention strategies that can mitigate the effect of this global challenge.<br><br>FUNDING: Research Grants Council of Hong Kong, China.}, }
@article {pmid38849178, year = {2024}, author = {Guihenneuc, J and Cambien, G and Blanc-Petitjean, P and Papin, E and Bernard, N and Jourdain, B and Barcos, I and Saez, C and Dupuis, A and Ayraud-Thevenot, S and Migeot, V}, title = {Knowledge, behaviours, practices, and expectations regarding climate change and environmental sustainability among health workers in France: a multicentre, cross-sectional study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e353-e364}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00099-8}, pmid = {38849178}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; France ; Adult ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; *Health Personnel/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Middle Aged ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Faced with climate change, hospitals are confronted with a dual challenge. On one hand, they need to embark on a far-reaching ecological transformation to reduce their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts; on the other hand, they need to limit the effects of climate change on their activities. We aimed to evaluate the knowledge, behaviours, practices, and expectations of health workers in French hospitals regarding climate change and environmental sustainability.<br><br>METHODS: This multicentre, cross-sectional study was carried out in six French hospitals from June 1, 2021 to Dec 31, 2022. All health workers at the hospitals were eligible to participate and were recruited through internal publicity. We designed a structured questionnaire consisting of five parts: participant characteristics, knowledge and perceptions of climate change, pro-environmental behaviours, practices concerning environmental sustainability actions, and expectations. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to evaluate associations between the knowledge, behaviours, and practices of health workers and the characteristics of the health workers and hospitals.<br><br>FINDINGS: Of 57&#x2008;034 health workers across the six hospitals, 4552 (8&#xb7;0%) participated in the study. Of those for whom gender data were available, 3518 (78&#xb7;2%) participants were women and 979 (21&#xb7;8%) were men. Participants considered energy consumption (71&#xb7;0%) and waste and discharges related to medical activities (55&#xb7;6%) and non-medical activities (50&#xb7;2%) to be the three activities with the greatest environmental impact. On a scale of 1 (not a priority) to 10 (high priority), the median rating attributed by the participants to the commitment of their hospitals to ecological transformation was 5&#xb7;0 (IQR 3&#xb7;0-6&#xb7;0). 1079 (23&#xb7;7%) of 4552 participants had already initiated at least one environmental sustainability action in their hospital. Barriers reported by participants to the implementation of environmental sustainability-related projects were the lack of dedicated time (40&#xb7;4%), hierarchical support (32&#xb7;5%), methodological support (28&#xb7;9%), and access to training (23&#xb7;7%). The presence of a sustainable development steering committee, especially one with more than 5 years of activity, was positively associated with health workers feeling better informed about the ecological transformation of their hospital (adjusted odds ratio 1&#xb7;78 [95% CI 1&#xb7;29-2&#xb7;45]), having better knowledge of the environmental impacts of their hospital (1&#xb7;83 [1&#xb7;32-2&#xb7;53]), and initiating a larger number of environmental sustainability actions (1&#xb7;74 [1&#xb7;33-2&#xb7;29]).<br><br>INTERPRETATION: We showed that health workers in French hospitals seem to be committed to the ecological transformation of their workplaces, and identified some drivers and barriers to further support these essential transformations. There is an urgent need to bolster training for all health workers, enhance structural frameworks within hospitals, and encourage future interdisciplinary research on the vulnerability of health-care facilities to climate change.<br><br>FUNDING: The University Hospital of Poitiers.}, }
@article {pmid38849174, year = {2024}, author = {Sorcher, R and Ochieng Arunda, M and , }, title = {Key considerations for research into how climate change affects sexual and reproductive health and rights.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e347-e348}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00093-7}, pmid = {38849174}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Reproductive Health ; Humans ; *Sexual Health ; Research ; Human Rights ; Reproductive Rights ; }, }
@article {pmid38849173, year = {2024}, author = {Peden, AE and Chisholm, S and Meddings, DR and Abrahams, J}, title = {Drowning and disasters: climate change priorities.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e345-e346}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00090-1}, pmid = {38849173}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Drowning/prevention &amp; control ; *Disasters ; }, }
@article {pmid38848911, year = {2024}, author = {Vospernik, S and Vigren, C and Morin, X and Toigo, M and Bielak, K and Brazaitis, G and Bravo, F and Heym, M and Del Río, M and Jansons, A and Löf, M and Nothdurft, A and Pardos, M and Pach, M and Ponette, Q and Pretzsch, H}, title = {Can mixing Quercus robur and Quercus petraea with Pinus sylvestris compensate for productivity losses due to climate change?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173342}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173342}, pmid = {38848911}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with a representative concentration pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing of 4.5 W m[-2] and 8.5 W m[-2] by 2100, respectively, predict an increase in temperature of 1-4.5° Celsius for Europe and a simultaneous shift in precipitation patterns leading to increased drought frequency and severity. The negative consequences of such changes on tree growth on dry sites or at the dry end of a tree species distribution are well-known, but rarely quantified across large gradients. In this study, the growth of Quercus robur and Quercus petraea (Q. spp.) and Pinus sylvestris in pure and mixed stands was predicted for a historical scenario and the two climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the individual tree growth model PrognAus. Predictions were made along an ecological gradient ranging from current mean annual temperatures of 5.5-11.4 °C and with mean annual precipitation sums of 586-929 mm. Initial data for the simulation consisted of 23 triplets established in pure and mixed stands of Q. spp. and P. sylvestris. After doing the simulations until 2100, we fitted a linear mixed model using the predicted volume in the year 2100 as response variable to describe the general trends in the simulation results. Productivity decreased for both Q. spp. and P. sylvestris with increasing temperature, and more so, for the warmer sites of the gradient. P. sylvestris is the more productive tree species in the current climate scenario, but the competitive advantage shifts to Q. spp., which is capable to endure very high negative water potentials, for the more severe climate change scenario. The Q. spp.-P. sylvestris mixture presents an intermediate resilience to increased scenario severity. Enrichment of P. sylvestris stands by creating mixtures with Q. spp., but not the opposite, might be a right silvicultural adaptive strategy, especially at lower latitudes. Tree species mixing can only partly compensate productivity losses due to climate change. This may, however, be possible in combination with other silvicultural adaptation strategies, such as thinning and uneven-aged management.}, }
@article {pmid38848812, year = {2024}, author = {Mayekar, HV and Rajpurohit, S}, title = {No single rescue recipe: genome complexities modulate insect response to climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {101220}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2024.101220}, pmid = {38848812}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {Declines in insect populations have gained formidable attention. Given their crucial role in the ecosystem, causes of declining insect populations must be investigated. However, the insect clade has been associated with low extinction and high diversification rates. It is unlikely that insects underwent mass extinctions in the past. However, the current climate change could make insect populations vulnerable to extinction. We propose genome size (GS) and transposable elements (TE) to be rough estimates to assess extinction risk. Specifically larger GS and/ or proliferating TE numbers are associated with adaptation in rapid climate change scenarios. We speculate unstable, stressful environmental conditions strongly associate with GS and TE expansion which further correlate with adaptations. Alternately, stressful conditions trigger TE bursts which are not purged in smaller populations. GE and TE could be indicators of small effective populations in the wild likely experiencing bottlenecks and hence demand assessment for extinction risk.}, }
@article {pmid38848733, year = {2024}, author = {Zangerl, KE and Hoernke, K and Andreas, M and Dalglish, SL and Kelman, I and Nilsson, M and Rockloev, J and Bärnighausen, T and McMahon, SA}, title = {Child health prioritisation in national adaptation policies on climate change: a policy document analysis across 160 countries.}, journal = {The Lancet. Child &amp; adolescent health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2352-4642(24)00084-1}, pmid = {38848733}, issn = {2352-4650}, abstract = {Integration of child-specific adaptation measures into health policies is imperative given children's heightened susceptibility to the health impacts of climate change. Using a document analysis method, we examined 160 national adaptation policies for inclusion of child-relevant measures and identified 19 child health-related adaptation domains. 44 (28%) of 160 countries' policies that were analysed failed to include any domains, 49 (31%) included at least one child-related domain, 62 (39%) included between two and six domains, and five (3%) included at least seven domains. Predominant domains among child-specific adaptation measures included education and awareness raising, followed by community engagement and nutrition. No country addressed children's direct needs in the domain of mental health. National adaptation policies tend towards overly simple conceptualisations of children across four major lenses: age, social role, gender, and agency. Limited inclusion of child-specific measures in national adaptation policies suggests insufficient recognition of and action on children's susceptibility to climate change effects.}, }
@article {pmid38848369, year = {2024}, author = {Meng, F and Felton, AJ and Mao, J and Cong, N and Smith, WK and Körner, C and Hu, Z and Hong, S and Knott, J and Yan, Y and Guo, B and Deng, Y and Leisz, S and Dorji, T and Wang, S and Chen, A}, title = {Consistent time allocation fraction to vegetation green-up versus senescence across northern ecosystems despite recent climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {10}, number = {23}, pages = {eadn2487}, pmid = {38848369}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Seasons ; Plant Development ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Extended growing season lengths under climatic warming suggest increased time for plant growth. However, research has focused on climatic impacts to the timing or duration of distinct phenological events. Comparatively little is known about impacts to the relative time allocation to distinct phenological events, for example, the proportion of time dedicated to leaf growth versus senescence. We use multiple satellite and ground-based observations to show that, despite recent climate change during 2001 to 2020, the ratio of time allocated to vegetation green-up over senescence has remained stable [1.27 (± 0.92)] across more than 83% of northern ecosystems. This stability is independent of changes in growing season lengths and is caused by widespread positive relationships among vegetation phenological events; longer vegetation green-up results in longer vegetation senescence. These empirical observations were also partly reproduced by 13 dynamic global vegetation models. Our work demonstrates an intrinsic biotic control to vegetation phenology that could explain the timing of vegetation senescence under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38848244, year = {2024}, author = {Martyn-Nemeth, P and Hayman, LL}, title = {Climate Change and Cardiovascular Health.}, journal = {The Journal of cardiovascular nursing}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {305-306}, doi = {10.1097/JCN.0000000000001102}, pmid = {38848244}, issn = {1550-5049}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/prevention &amp; control/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid38847970, year = {2024}, author = {Gini, G and Piggott-McKellar, A and Wiegel, H and Neu, F and Link, AC and Fry, C and Tabe, T and Adegun, O and Wade, C and Bower, ER and Koeltzow, S and Harrington-Abrams, R and Jacobs, C and van der Geest, K and Zivdar, N and Alaniz, R and Cherop, C and Durand-Delacre, D and Pill, M and Shekhar, H and Yates, O and Khan, MAA and Nansam-Aggrey, FK and Grant, L and Nizar, DA and Owusu-Daaku, KN and Praeto, A and Stefancu, O and Yee, M}, title = {Navigating tensions in climate change-related planned relocation.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38847970}, issn = {1654-7209}, abstract = {The planned relocation of communities away from areas of climate-related risk has emerged as a critical strategy to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Empirical examples from around the world show, however, that such relocations often lead to poor outcomes for affected communities. To address this challenge, and contribute to developing guidelines for just and sustainable relocation processes, this paper calls attention to three fundamental tensions in planned relocation processes: (1) conceptualizations of risk and habitability; (2) community consultation and ownership; and (3) siloed policy frameworks and funding mechanisms. Drawing on the collective experience of 29 researchers, policymakers and practitioners from around the world working on planned relocations in the context of a changing climate, we provide strategies for collectively and collaboratively acknowledging and navigating these tensions among actors at all levels, to foster more equitable and sustainable relocation processes and outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid38844810, year = {2024}, author = {Pearson, H}, title = {What's the best way to tackle climate change? An 'evidence bank' could help scientists find answers.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38844810}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38844654, year = {2024}, author = {Vidal, C and Latkin, C}, title = {Views of Psychiatrists and Psychiatry Trainees on Climate Change: Distress, Training Needs, and Envisioned Role.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38844654}, issn = {1545-7230}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Increasing evidence demonstrates that climate change has effects on mental health. Given the magnitude of climate change's health consequences, mitigation and adaptation will require massive societal changes and the involvement of individuals and professional organizations. The aim of this research was to assess the views of psychiatrists and psychiatrists-in-training about climate change and its effects on health, perceived barriers to discussing climate change in their clinical, teaching, research, and advocacy work, personal preparedness for climate action, and expected roles of their professional organizations.<br><br>METHODS: The authors administered an online anonymous survey to members of two mid-Atlantic professional psychiatric organizations. Measures included an adaptation of The International Climate and Health Survey and demographic and career characteristics. Descriptive statistics for categorical variables were conducted.<br><br>RESULTS: The majority of the 67 participants who completed the survey were White and senior in their career, and almost all were clinicians. Most were concerned about climate change and its mental health effects on patients and supported their organizations' engagement in activities related to this topic. Barriers to engagement in climate change action included lack of time and believing it would not make a difference.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate a desire of psychiatrists involved in teaching, research, and clinical work to address climate change and a need for training. These findings highlight the need for preparedness as newer generations face more disasters related to climate change, and experience psychological distress related to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38844411, year = {2024}, author = {MacDonald, JS and Lutscher, F and Bourgault, Y}, title = {Climate change fluctuations can increase population abundance and range size.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {27}, number = {6}, pages = {e14453}, doi = {10.1111/ele.14453}, pmid = {38844411}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {RGPIN-2016-0495//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; RGPIN-2019-06855//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Population Density ; Animals ; Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; Models, Biological ; Animal Distribution ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens many species by a poleward/upward movement of their thermal niche. While we know that faster movement has stronger impacts, little is known on how fluctuations of niche movement affect population outcomes. Environmental fluctuations often affect populations negatively, but theory and experiments have revealed some positive effects. We study how fluctuations around the average speed of the niche impact a species' persistence, abundance and realized niche width under climate change. We find that the outcome depends on how fluctuations manifest and what the relative time scale of population growth and climate fluctuations are. When populations are close to extinction with the average speed, fluctuations around this average accelerate population decline. However, populations not yet close to extinction can increase in abundance and/or realized niche width from such fluctuations. Long-lived species increase more when their niche size remains constant, short-lived species increase more when their niche size varies.}, }
@article {pmid38844225, year = {2024}, author = {Kolanowska, M and Rewicz, A and Nowak, S}, title = {Can global warming be beneficial for Arctic-alpine orchid species? Outcomes from ecological niche modeling for Chamorchis alpina (L.) Rich. (Orchidaceae).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173616}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173616}, pmid = {38844225}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The disjunct Arctic-alpine plants that persist on isolated mountain sites at the limits of their geographical range are particularly sensitive indicators of climate change effects. Here, we investigated a remarkably fragile plant, the smallest orchid in Europe, Chamorchis alpina. The ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach was employed not only to verify the shift in the range of the studied orchid but also to evaluate the future overlap between this plant population and its pollen vectors, Dasytes alpigradus, Formica lemani and Leptothorax acervorum. Our analyses showed that the bioclimatic preferences of the northern (Scandinavian) populations differed from those of the southern populations located in the Alps and Carpathians. Surprisingly, both C. alpina groups will expand their potential ranges under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario, and additional suitable niches will become available for the northern group under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. The Scandinavian populations will face significant habitat loss (36 %) in the SSP5-8.5 projection. The southern group will lose suitable niches under both the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (33 % and 58 %, respectively). For all pollinators of C. alpina, global warming will be favorable, and all three species will expand their potential ranges under all analyzed climate change scenarios. Our research suggests that a "middle of the road" scenario of climate change (SSP2-4.5), which assumes that socioeconomic factors follow historical trends, will not be harmful to the studied orchid or possibly other elements of Arctic-alpine flora, but all other scenarios that predict increases in CO2 emissions will result in a decreases in the coverage of suitable C. alpina niches, especially in the alpine region. At the same time, an overall expansion of alpine dwarf orchid pollen vectors is predicted, so even within a reduced geographical range, the orchid population will be able to reproduce sexually.}, }
@article {pmid38843730, year = {2024}, author = {Keleş Özgenç, E and Uzun, O}, title = {Impacts of land use/land cover and climate change on landscape sensitivity in Tunca River sub-basin: Use in spatial planning and sectoral decision processes.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {121372}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121372}, pmid = {38843730}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Managing landscape change is increasingly challenging due to rapid anthropogenic shifts. A delicate balance must be struck between the environment and change to ensure landscapes can withstand these impacts. This study conducted in the Tunca River sub-basin of Edirne province, aims to assess landscape sensitivity by examining the influence of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on landscape function processes. For this purpose, a methodology was developed based on ecosystem services to determine landscape sensitivity. The results revealed a LULC transformation that could lead to a 60% reduction in forest areas and a 5% and 20% increase in urban and irrigated agricultural areas, respectively. Water and erosion emerged as the most affected landscape function processes. Future scenarios from 2050 to 2070 indicate noteworthy changes in landscape sensitivity, showing an increase in sensitivity in the upper regions of the basin. The study identified high sensitivity in forested areas, moderate sensitivity in agricultural zones, and low sensitivity in micro-basins near residential areas. Protection and improvement strategies are recommended for areas with high and moderate sensitivity, while use-oriented strategies are suggested for those with low sensitivity. This study also establishes a scientific foundation for guiding the protection and management of ecologically sensitive basin areas, offering insights into the effects of landscape change processes at the micro-basin level in connection with climate change models.}, }
@article {pmid38843434, year = {2024}, author = {Abeles, SR and Kline, A and Lee, P}, title = {Climate change and resilience for antimicrobial stewardship and infection prevention.}, journal = {Current opinion in infectious diseases}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/QCO.0000000000001032}, pmid = {38843434}, issn = {1473-6527}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review covers recent research regarding the challenges posed by climate change within the areas of antimicrobial stewardship and infection prevention, and ways to build resiliency in these fields.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Infectious disease patterns are changing as microbes adapt to climate change and changing environmental factors. Capacity for testing and treating infectious diseases is challenged by newly emerging diseases, which exacerbate challenges to antimicrobial stewardship and infection prevention.Antimicrobial resistance is accelerated due to environmental factors including air pollution, plastic pollution, and chemicals used in food systems, which are all impacted by climate change.Climate change places infection prevention practices at risk in many ways including from major weather events, increased risk of epidemics, and societal disruptions causing conditions that can overwhelm health systems. Researchers are building resilience by advancing rapid diagnostics and disease modeling, and identifying highly reliable versus low efficiency interventions.<br><br>SUMMARY: Climate change and associated major weather and socioeconomic events will place significant strain on healthcare facilities. Work being done to advance rapid diagnostics, build supply chain resilience, improve predictive disease modeling and surveillance, and identify high reliability versus low yield interventions will help build resiliency in antimicrobial stewardship and infection prevention for escalating challenges due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38842221, year = {2024}, author = {Ke, C and Gong, LX and Geng, Y and Wang, ZQ and Zhang, WJ and Feng, J and Jiang, TL}, title = {Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e14310}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.14310}, pmid = {38842221}, issn = {1523-1739}, support = {20220101273JC//Fund of the Jilin Province Science and Technology Development Project/ ; 2021FY100301//Special Foundation for National Science and Technology Basic Research Program of China/ ; 2412023YQ002//Fundamental&#xa0;Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; 2412023QD026//Fundamental&#xa0;Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; 32371562//National&#xa0;Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid38841463, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, X and Tian, F and Tao, L and Su, Y}, title = {The response rules to maintain social stability facing the climate change in ming dynasty.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {e31696}, pmid = {38841463}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Studying the mechanisms by which climate change interacted with human societies during the historical period can provide historical insights and cultural roots for climate policy building in the region. In this study, we constructed Stability-Robustness-Resilience Model (SSR model) and used the TOPSIS method (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and the entropy weight method to assess the change processes of robustness, resilience, and stability of Ming's society in response to climate threats. We have also compared three extreme droughts that occurred in different periods of social robustness-resilience combinations by using the SRR model. The results are as follows. (1) The stability of the Ming society was high in YongLe - HongZhi period (1402-1505 CE), when both social robustness and resilience were higher than the average level of Ming Dynasty (0.5611 for the former and 0.4215 for the latter), but there was a significant decline in social stability in TianShun period (1457-1464 CE). In ZhengDe - ChongZhen period (1506-1644 CE), the stability of Ming society gradually decreased, and it rebounded shortly in the LongQing-WanLi period (1506-1620 CE). (2) The high stability benefited from higher socio-economic levels, better government finance levels, larger national food reserves, safer social environments (high robustness), and higher levels of ruling class governance and risk response (high resilience); whereas insecure social environment induced by war, declining socio-economic levels and government finance levels were the main reasons for the decline in society's stability. (3)The ChengHua and WanLi droughts both happened at a time with high social robustness, so although their meteorological anomalies were severe, their impact on society was small. While the JiaJing drought happened at a time with low social robustness and resilience, so although the meteorological anomaly was relatively weak, it resulted in a more severe social consequence than the other two events.}, }
@article {pmid38840201, year = {2024}, author = {Stevens, M and Israel, A and Nusselder, A and Mattijsen, JC and Chen, F and Erasmus, V and van Beeck, E and Otto, S}, title = {Drawing a line from CO2 emissions to health-evaluation of medical students' knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and health following a novel serious game: a mixed-methods study.}, journal = {BMC medical education}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {626}, pmid = {38840201}, issn = {1472-6920}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Students, Medical/psychology ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Male ; Female ; Focus Groups ; Curriculum ; Education, Medical, Undergraduate ; Young Adult ; Adult ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Carbon Dioxide ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Education is urgently needed to equip medical students with knowledge, values and skills to promote planetary health. However, the current literature offers little insight into evidence-based approaches and best practices. In response to this pressing need, a novel serious game was introduced into the medical curriculum at Erasmus Medical Center in 2023. The aim of this study was to evaluate the knowledge and attitudes of medical students after they had played a serious game that addresses climate change and health.<br><br>METHODS: In accordance with a mixed-methods design, quantitative data were collected using pre- and post-intervention surveys. Differences were assessed using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Focus group discussions were held after the game and thematically analysed.<br><br>RESULTS: One hundred forty-five students (38.6% of the entire cohort) played the game, of which 59 students completed the pre- and post-intervention surveys. After the game, self-reported knowledge increased. Regarding objective knowledge, an increase in the proportion of students who answered one of the two questions correctly was observed, while the proportion of correct responses decreased for the other question. Student's responses to two out of five attitude questions were significantly more positive. The proportion of students who recognized the importance of climate change education, to inform patients and society about the health impacts of climate change, increased. Moreover, survey results indicated a significant increase in climate worry subsequent to the game. Eleven students participated in the focus group discussions. Thematic analysis highlighted participants' reflections on the roles and responsibilities in climate change and health, along with their realisation of the tools for action that climate and health co-benefits provide. Another significant aspect was the importance participants placed on learning alongside peers with diverse attitudes. Additionally, participants appreciated the tangible overview of climate change and health provided by the serious game.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our novel serious game addressed an important gap in the medical curriculum. The game can enable medical students to cultivate the necessary knowledge and attitudes to promote health in times of a climate crisis. The accompanying climate worry needs attention through the empowerment of students' agency to foster change.}, }
@article {pmid38840055, year = {2024}, author = {Abebe, DM and Mengistie, DT and Mekonen, AA}, title = {The influence of climate change on the sesame yield in North Gondar, North Ethiopia: Application Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) time series model.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {506}, pmid = {38840055}, issn = {1471-2229}, mesh = {Ethiopia ; *Climate Change ; *Sesamum/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Sesame is a major annual oil crop that is grown practically everywhere in tropical and subtropical Asia, as well as Africa, for its very nutritious and tasty seeds. Rising temperatures, droughts, floods, desertification, and weather all have a significant impact on agricultural production, particularly in developing countries like Ethiopia. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to examine the influence of climate change on the sesame yield in North Gondar, North Ethiopia, by using the autoregressive distributed Lag (ARDL) time series model. This study employed climate data from the Bahirdar Agrometeorological Center and secondary data on sesame production from the Ethiopian Statistical Service, spanning 36 years, from 1987 to 2023. Autoregressive Distributed LAG (ARDL) includes diagnostic tests for both short- and long-term autoregressive models. The results for the long-run and short-run elastic coefficients show a significant positive association between temperatures and sesame yield. Sesame yield and rainfall have a significant negative long-run and short-run relationship in North Gondar, North Ethiopia. ARDL results confirm that temperature and rainfall have significant effects on sesame productivity. Temperature had a considerable favorable effect on sesamen production, but rainfall had a negative effect in North Gondar, Ethiopia. Based on the evidence acquired from our study, we made several policy recommendations and suggestions to government officials, policymakers, new technologies, researchers, policy development planners, and other stakeholders in order to develop or implement new technology to halt its production and direct adaptation measures in light of the certainty of global warming and the characteristics of climate-dependent agricultural production.}, }
@article {pmid38839894, year = {2024}, author = {Perry, D and Tamarit, E and Sundell, E and Axelsson, M and Bergman, S and Gräns, A and Gullström, M and Sturve, J and Wennhage, H}, title = {Physiological responses of Atlantic cod to climate change indicate that coastal ecotypes may be better adapted to tolerate ocean stressors.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {12896}, pmid = {38839894}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {NV-802-0100-19//Naturv&#xe5;rdsverket/ ; }, mesh = {*Gadus morhua/physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecotype ; Ecosystem ; Stress, Physiological ; Oceans and Seas ; Sweden ; Seawater/chemistry ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Oxidative Stress ; }, abstract = {Healthy ecosystems and species have some degree of resilience to changing conditions, however as the frequency and severity of environmental changes increase, resilience may be diminished or lost. In Sweden, one example of a species with reduced resilience is the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). This species has been subjected to overfishing, and with additional pressures such as habitat degradation and changing environmental conditions there has been little to no recovery, despite more than a decade of management actions. Given the historical ecological, economical, and cultural significance of cod, it is important to understand how Atlantic cod respond to global climate change to recover and sustainably manage this species in the future. A multi-stressor experiment was conducted to evaluate physiological responses of juvenile cod exposed to warming, ocean acidification, and freshening, changes expected to occur in their nursery habitat. The response to single drivers showed variable effects related to fish biometrics and increased levels of oxidative stress dependent parameters. Importantly, two separate responses were seen within a single treatment for the multi-stressor and freshening groups. These within-treatment differences were correlated to genotype, with the offshore ecotype having a heightened stress response compared to the coastal ecotype, which may be better adapted to tolerate future changes. These results demonstrate that, while Atlantic cod have some tolerance for future changes, ecotypes respond differently, and cumulative effects of multiple stressors may lead to deleterious effects for this important species.}, }
@article {pmid38839204, year = {2024}, author = {Miller, MR and Landrigan, PJ and Arora, M and Newby, DE and Münzel, T and Kovacic, JC}, title = {Environmentally Not So Friendly: Global Warming, Air Pollution, and Wildfires: JACC Focus Seminar, Part 1.}, journal = {Journal of the American College of Cardiology}, volume = {83}, number = {23}, pages = {2291-2307}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.424}, pmid = {38839204}, issn = {1558-3597}, mesh = {Humans ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Wildfires ; *Global Warming ; Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; Smoke/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Environmental stresses are increasingly recognized as significant risk factors for adverse health outcomes. In particular, various forms of pollution and climate change are playing a growing role in promoting noncommunicable diseases, especially cardiovascular disease. Given recent trends, global warming and air pollution are now associated with substantial cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. As a vicious cycle, global warming increases the occurrence, size, and severity of wildfires, which are significant sources of airborne particulate matter. Exposure to wildfire smoke is associated with cardiovascular disease, and these effects are underpinned by mechanisms that include oxidative stress, inflammation, impaired cardiac function, and proatherosclerotic effects in the circulation. In the first part of a 2-part series on pollution and cardiovascular disease, this review provides an overview of the impact of global warming and air pollution, and because of recent events and emerging trends specific attention is paid to air pollution caused by wildfires.}, }
@article {pmid38839203, year = {2024}, author = {Khatana, SAM}, title = {Climate Change and Cardiovascular Mortality: Will Fewer Cold Days Balance Out More Hot Days?.}, journal = {Journal of the American College of Cardiology}, volume = {83}, number = {23}, pages = {2288-2290}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2024.04.010}, pmid = {38839203}, issn = {1558-3597}, mesh = {Humans ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature/adverse effects ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid38838403, year = {2024}, author = {Shaban, M and Amer, FGM and Shaban, MM}, title = {The impact of nursing sustainable prevention program on heat strain among agricultural elderly workers in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Geriatric nursing (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {58}, number = {}, pages = {215-224}, doi = {10.1016/j.gerinurse.2024.05.021}, pmid = {38838403}, issn = {1528-3984}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This study assesses a geriatric nursing-led sustainable heat prevention program for elderly agricultural workers. It targets those aged 60 and above, addressing the heightened risk of heat strain in the era of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: A community-based quasi-experimental design involved 120 elderly agricultural workers, divided into intervention and control groups. The program, spanning three months, included education on hydration, rest, protective clothing, and recognition of heat-related illnesses.<br><br>RESULTS: The intervention led by geriatric nursing professionals showed significant improvements in heat strain metrics. The Heat Strain Score Index (HSSI) and the Observational-Perceptual Heat Strain Risk Assessment (OPHSRA) Index indicated increased safety levels and reduced risk categories among participants.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrates the effectiveness of a geriatric nursing-led, tailored prevention program in reducing heat strain among elderly agricultural workers. It highlights the crucial role of nursing in adapting healthcare practices to the challenges posed by climate change.<br><br>TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, ID NCT06192069 retrospectively registered.}, }
@article {pmid38838252, year = {2024}, author = {Kuhn, BT and Gupta, R}, title = {Improving Wildfire Readiness Among Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Asthma: Applying a Population Health Approach to Climate Change.}, journal = {Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (Miami, Fla.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.15326/jcopdf.2024.0509}, pmid = {38838252}, issn = {2372-952X}, support = {//Takeda Pharmaceuticals USA, Inc/United States ; }, abstract = {As a result of climate change, wildfire frequency, duration, and severity are increasing in the United States. Exposure to wildfire-related air pollutants can lead to negative health outcomes, particularly among patients with pre-existing respiratory diseases (eg, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) and those who are at higher risk for developing these conditions. Underserved communities are disproportionately affected for multiple reasons, including lack of financial and social resources, increased exposure to air pollutants at home and at work, and impaired access to healthcare. To best serve clinically high-risk and underserved populations, health systems must leverage community public health data, develop and mobilize a wildfire preparedness action plan to identify populations at high risk, and implement interventions to mitigate the consequences of poor air quality. University of California, Davis Health, located at the epicenter of the largest wildfires in California's history, has developed the 5 pillar Wildfire Population Health Approach: (1) identify clinically at-risk and underserved patient populations using well-validated, condition-targeted registries; (2) assemble multidisciplinary care teams to understand the needs of these communities and patients; (3) create custom analytics and wildfire-risk stratification; (4) develop care pathways based on wildfire-risk tiers by disease, risk of exposure, and healthcare access; and (5) identify outcome measures tailored to interventions with a commitment to continuous, iterative improvement efforts. The Wildfire Population Health Approach provides an action plan for health systems and care teams to meet the needs of clinically at-risk and underserved patients affected by the increasing health threat posed by climate change-related wildfires.}, }
@article {pmid38837566, year = {2024}, author = {Taylor, PJ and Kearney, TC and Clark, VR and Howard, A and Mdluli, MV and Markotter, W and Geldenhuys, M and Richards, LR and Rakotoarivelo, AR and Watson, J and Balona, J and Monadjem, A}, title = {Southern Africa's Great Escarpment as an amphitheater of climate-driven diversification and a buffer against future climate change in bats.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {e17344}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17344}, pmid = {38837566}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {128386//National Research Foundation and Department of Science and Innovation of South Africa/ ; //Afromontane Research Unit, University of the Free State/ ; //National Research Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Chiroptera/physiology/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Africa, Southern ; *DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics/analysis ; Phylogeny ; Genetic Speciation ; Phylogeography ; Animal Distribution ; }, abstract = {Hosting 1460 plant and 126 vertebrate endemic species, the Great Escarpment (hereafter, Escarpment) forms a semi-circular "amphitheater" of mountains girdling southern Africa from arid west to temperate east. Since arid and temperate biota are usually studied separately, earlier studies overlooked the biogeographical importance of the Escarpment as a whole. Bats disperse more widely than other mammalian taxa, with related species and intraspecific lineages occupying both arid and temperate highlands of the Escarpment, providing an excellent model to address this knowledge gap. We investigated patterns of speciation and micro-endemism from modeled past, present, and future distributions in six clades of southern African bats from three families (Rhinolophidae, Cistugidae, and Vespertilionidae) having different crown ages (Pleistocene to Miocene) and biome affiliations (temperate to arid). We estimated mtDNA relaxed clock dates of key divergence events across the six clades in relation both to biogeographical features and patterns of phenotypic variation in crania, bacula and echolocation calls. In horseshoe bats (Rhinolophidae), both the western and eastern "arms" of the Escarpment have facilitated dispersals from the Afrotropics into southern Africa. Pleistocene and pre-Pleistocene "species pumps" and temperate refugia explained observed patterns of speciation, intraspecific divergence and, in two cases, mtDNA introgression. The Maloti-Drakensberg is a center of micro-endemism for bats, housing three newly described or undescribed species. Vicariance across biogeographic barriers gave rise to 29 micro-endemic species and intraspecific lineages whose distributions were congruent with those identified in other phytogeographic and zoogeographic studies. Although Köppen-Geiger climate models predict a widespread replacement of current temperate ecosystems in southern Africa by tropical or arid ecosystems by 2070-2100, future climate Maxent models for 13 bat species (all but one of those analyzed above) showed minimal range changes in temperate species from the eastern Escarpment by 2070, possibly due to the buffering effect of mountains to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38837311, year = {2024}, author = {Li, GY and Li, Y and Liu, H}, title = {Distribution patterns of Phytoseiulus persimilis in response to climate change.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.8196}, pmid = {38837311}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {2023YFD1400600//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; SWU120048//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The biological control agent Phytoseiulus persimilis is a commercialized specialist predator of two agricultural pest mite species Tetranychus urticae and Tetranychus evansi. Biocontrol of these pest species by P. persimilis has achieved success in biological control in some areas. However, the lack of precise information about the influence of global climate change on the worldwide distribution of this biocontrol agent hampers international efforts to manage pest mites with P. persimilis. With 276 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables, this study investigated the potential global distribution of P. persimilis.<br><br>RESULTS: The results demonstrated that the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model performed well, with the area under the curve being 0.956, indicating the high accuracy of this model. Two variables, the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio_6) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio_19) were the most important environmental variables that influenced the distribution of P. persimilis, contributing more than 30% to the model, respectively. The suitable area currently occupies 21.67% of the world's land area, spanning latitudes between 60&#xb0;S and 60&#xb0;N. Under shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 (high-carbon emissions), the low suitable area would increase by 1.31% until the 2050s.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study successfully identified that south-eastern China, parts of countries in the Mediterranean coastal regions, including Libya, Algeria, Portugal, Spain, and France, are climatically favorable regions for P. persimilis, providing valuable information about the potential areas where it can be effectively exploited as biocontrol agents in classical biological control programs to manage pest spider mites environmentally friendly. &#xa9; 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid38836542, year = {2024}, author = {Périard, JD and Brown, HA and Clark, B}, title = {Cross-disciplinary heat acclimatization research for climate change resilience.}, journal = {Journal of applied physiology (Bethesda, Md. : 1985)}, volume = {136}, number = {6}, pages = {1341}, doi = {10.1152/japplphysiol.00265.2024}, pmid = {38836542}, issn = {1522-1601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Acclimatization/physiology ; Hot Temperature ; Animals ; }, }
@article {pmid38836532, year = {2024}, author = {Niclou, AM and Chen, KY and Redman, LM}, title = {The juxtaposition between heat stress from global warming and human health.}, journal = {Journal of applied physiology (Bethesda, Md. : 1985)}, volume = {136}, number = {6}, pages = {1346-1347}, doi = {10.1152/japplphysiol.00281.2024}, pmid = {38836532}, issn = {1522-1601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Global Warming ; *Heat Stress Disorders/physiopathology ; Hot Temperature ; Animals ; }, }
@article {pmid38836508, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, D and Li, L and Ning, R and Shao, Y and Li, H and Shi, X and Xue, Z and Togbah, CF and Yu, S and Gao, N}, title = {Satellite Tracking Reveals the Speed Up of the Lacustrine Algal Bloom Drift in Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.4c03391}, pmid = {38836508}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Satellite evidence indicates a global increase in lacustrine algal blooms. These blooms can drift with winds, resulting in significant changes of the algal biomass spatial distribution, which is crucial in bloom formation. However, the lack of long-term, large-scale observational data has limited our understanding of bloom drift. Here, we have developed a novel method to track the drift using multi-source remote sensing satellites and presented a comprehensive bloom drift data set for four typical lakes: Lake Taihu (China, 2011-2021), Lake Chaohu (China, 2011-2020), Lake Dianchi (China, 2003-2021), and Lake Erie (North America, 2003-2021). We found that blooms closer to the water surface tend to drift faster. Higher temperatures and lower wind speeds bring blooms closer to the water surface, therefore accelerating drift and increasing biomass transportation. Under ongoing climate change, algal blooms are increasingly likely to spread over larger areas and accumulate in downwind waters, thereby posing a heightened risk to water resources. Our research greatly improves the understanding of algal bloom dynamics and provides new insights into the driving factors behind the global expansion of algal blooms. Our bloom-drift-tracking methodology also paves the way for the development of high-precision algal bloom prediction models.}, }
@article {pmid38836440, year = {2024}, author = {Tang, H and Chen, L and Liu, S and Tan, X and Li, Y}, title = {Reconsidering the Effectiveness of Fear Appeals: An Experimental Study of Interactive Fear Messaging to Promote Positive Actions on Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of health communication}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1080/10810730.2024.2360025}, pmid = {38836440}, issn = {1087-0415}, abstract = {Masspersonal communication has emerged as a compelling alternative persuasive approach in response to the widespread use of social media. It is crucial to comprehend how observing online interpersonal interactions regarding the fear appeal of climate change can foster pro-environmental behaviors among users. This study examines the effects of vicarious message interactivity in promoting actions against climate change and the underlying mechanisms behind this effect. The results of an online experiment conducted in China (N = 236) revealed that psychological reactance and message elaboration mediated the effects of vicarious message interactivity on behavioral intention in a serial indirect effect. In comparison to static fear appeal, interactive fear appeal proves effective in reducing psychological reactance, promoting message elaboration, and ultimately increasing intention to take actions against climate change. Our findings not only contribute to the literature on interactive communication but also provide insights for environmental-health campaigns on social media.}, }
@article {pmid38835526, year = {2024}, author = {Souto-Veiga, R and Groeneveld, J and Enright, NJ and Fontaine, JB and Jeltsch, F}, title = {Climate change may shift metapopulations towards unstable source-sink dynamics in a fire-killed, serotinous shrub.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e11488}, pmid = {38835526}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change, with warming and drying weather conditions, is reducing the growth, seed production, and survival of fire-adapted plants in fire-prone regions such as Mediterranean-type ecosystems. These effects of climate change on local plant demographics have recently been shown to reduce the persistence time of local populations of the fire-killed shrub Banksia hookeriana dramatically. In principle, extinctions of local populations may be partly compensated by recolonization events through long-distance dispersal mechanisms of seeds, such as post-fire wind and bird-mediated dispersal, facilitating persistence in spatially structured metapopulations. However, to what degree and under which assumptions metapopulation dynamics might compensate for the drastically increased local extinction risk remains to be explored. Given the long timespans involved and the complexity of interwoven local and regional processes, mechanistic, process-based models are one of the most suitable approaches to systematically explore the potential role of metapopulation dynamics and its underlying ecological assumptions for fire-prone ecosystems. Here we extend a recent mechanistic, process-based, spatially implicit population model for the well-studied fire-killed and serotinous shrub species B. hookeriana to a spatially explicit metapopulation model. We systematically tested the effects of different ecological processes and assumptions on metapopulation dynamics under past (1988-2002) and current (2003-2017) climatic conditions, including (i) effects of different spatio-temporal fires, (ii) effects of (likely) reduced intraspecific plant competition under current conditions and (iii) effects of variation in plant performance among and within patches. In general, metapopulation dynamics had the potential to increase the overall regional persistence of B. hookeriana. However, increased population persistence only occurred under specific optimistic assumptions. In both climate scenarios, the highest persistence occurred with larger fires and intermediate to long inter-fire intervals. The assumption of lower intraspecific plant competition caused by lower densities under current conditions alone was not sufficient to increase persistence significantly. To achieve long-term persistence (defined as >400 years) it was necessary to additionally consider empirically observed variation in plant performance among and within patches, that is, improved habitat quality in some large habitat patches (≥7) that could function as source patches and a higher survival rate and seed production for a subset of plants, specifically the top 25% of flower producers based on current climate conditions monitoring data. Our model results demonstrate that the impacts of ongoing climate change on plant demographics are so severe that even under optimistic assumptions, the existing metapopulation dynamics shift to an unstable source-sink dynamic state. Based on our findings, we recommend increased research efforts to understand the consequences of intraspecific trait variation on plant demographics, emphasizing the variation of individual traits both among and within populations. From a conservation perspective, we encourage fire and land managers to revise their prescribed fire plans, which are typically short interval, small fires, as they conflict with the ecologically appropriate spatio-temporal fire regime for B. hookeriana, and likely as well for many other fire-killed species.}, }
@article {pmid38834576, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, L and Huang, Z and Zhang, X and Wang, Y}, title = {Harmonizing existing climate change mitigation policy datasets with a hybrid machine learning approach.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {580}, pmid = {38834576}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {71925010//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 71925010//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {With the rapid proliferation of climate policies in both number and scope, there is an increasing demand for a global-level dataset that provides multi-indicator information on policy elements and their implementation contexts. To address this need, we developed the Global Climate Change Mitigation Policy Dataset (GCCMPD) using a semisupervised hybrid machine learning approach, drawing upon policy information from global, regional, and sector-specific sources. Differing from existing climate policy datasets, the GCCMPD covers a large range of policies, amounting to 73,625 policies of 216 entities. Through the integration of expert knowledge-based dictionary mapping, probability statistics methods, and advanced natural language processing technology, the GCCMPD offers detailed classification of multiple indicators and consistent information on sectoral policy instruments. This includes insights into objectives, target sectors, instruments, legal compulsion, administrative entities, etc. By aligning with the sector classification of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission datasets, the GCCMPD serves to help policy-makers, researchers, and social organizations gain a deeper understanding of the similarities and distinctions among climate activities across countries, sectors, and entities.}, }
@article {pmid38834375, year = {2024}, author = {Wetchayont, P and Wirasatriya, A and Hayasaka, T and Shimada, T and Abdillah, MR and Puryajati, AD}, title = {Increasing marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Thailand after the global warming hiatus.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {106570}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106570}, pmid = {38834375}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been reported often throughout the world, producing severe effects on marine ecosystems. However, the spatial pattern and trend of MHWs in the Gulf of Thailand (GOT) is still unknown. Based on high-resolution daily satellite data over a 40-year period from 1982 to 2021, changes in annual mean SST and MHW occurrences across the GOT are explored here. The results demonstrate that during a warming hiatus (1998-2009), annual mean SST in the GOT encountered a dropping trend, followed by an increasing trend during a warming reacceleration period (2010-2021). Although a warming hiatus and a warming reacceleration occurred in the annual mean SST after 1998, regional averaged SSTs were still 0.18 °C-0.42 °C higher than that for 1982-1997. Statistical distributions reveal that there was a significant shift in both annual mean SSTs and annual extreme hot SSTs. These changes have the potential to increase the frequency of MHWs. Further analysis reveals that MHW frequency has increased at a rate of 1.11 events per decade from 1982 to 2021, which is 2.5 times the global mean rate. For the period 2010-2021, the frequency and intensity of MHWs in the GOT have never dropped, but have instead been more frequent, longer lasting and extreme than those metrics of MHWs between 1982 and 2009. Furthermore, the findings highlight significant changes in the SST over the GOT that may lead us to change or modify the reference period of the MHW definition. The findings also suggest that heat transport and redistribution mechanisms in the GOT sea are changing. This study contributes to our understanding of MHW features in the GOT and the implications for marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38834100, year = {2024}, author = {Krogh, A and Junginger, M and Shen, L and Grue, J and Pedersen, TH}, title = {Climate change impacts of bioenergy technologies: A comparative consequential LCA of sustainable fuels production with CCUS.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173660}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173660}, pmid = {38834100}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The use of sustainable biomass can be a cost-effective way of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions in the maritime and aviation sectors. Biomass, however, is a limited resource, and therefore, it is important to use the biomass where it creates the highest value, not only economically, but also in terms of GHG reductions. This study comprehensively evaluates the GHG reduction potential of utilising forestry residue in different bioenergy technologies using a consequential LCA approach. Unlike previous studies that assess GHG impacts per unit of fuel produced, this research takes a feedstock-centric approach which enables comparisons across systems that yield diverse products and by-products. Three technologies-combined heat and power plant with carbon capture, hydrothermal liquefaction, and gasification-are assessed, while considering both carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture and utilisation (CCU). Through scenario analysis, the study addresses uncertainty, and assumptions in the LCA modelling. It explores the impact of energy systems, fuel substitution efficiency, renewable energy expansion, and the up/down stream supply chain. All technology pathways showed a potential for net emissions savings when including avoided emissions from substitution of products, with results varying from -111 to -1742 kgCO2eq per tonne residue. When combining the bioenergy technologies with CCU the dependency on the energy system in which they are operated was a significantly higher compared to CCS. The breakpoint was found to be 44 kg CO2eq/kWh electricity meaning that the marginal electricity mix has to be below this point for CCU to obtain lower GHG emissions. Furthermore, it is evident that the environmental performance of CCU technologies is highly sensitive to how it will affect the ongoing expansion of renewable electricity capacity.}, }
@article {pmid38833934, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, Z and Si, J and Jia, B and He, X and Zhou, D and Wang, C and Zhu, X and Qin, J and Ndayambaza, B and Bai, X}, title = {The dominant influencing factors of desertification and ecological risk changes in Qinghai Area of Qilian Mountains National Park: Climate change or human activity?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {362}, number = {}, pages = {121335}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121335}, pmid = {38833934}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Transitional features of desert environments partially determine the risks associated with ecosystems. Influenced by climate change and human activities, the variability and uncertainty of desertification levels and ecological risks in the Qinghai Area of Qilian Mountain National Park (QMNPQA) has become increasingly prominent. As a critical ecological barrier in northwest China, monitoring desertification dynamics and ecological risks is crucial for maintaining ecosystem stability. This study identifies the optimal monitoring model from four constructed desertification monitoring models and analyzes spatiotemporal changes in desertification. The spatial and temporal changes in ecological risks and their primary driving factors were analyzed using methods such as raster overlay calculation, geographic detector, cloud model, and trend analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: The desertification feature spatial model based on GNDVI-Albedo demonstrates better applicability in the study area, with an inversion accuracy of 81.24%. The levels of desertification and ecological risks in QMNPQA exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, with a gradual decrease observed from northwest to southeast. From 2000 to 2020, there is an overall decreasing trend in desertification levels and ecological risks, with the decreasing trend area accounting for 89.82% and 85.71% respectively, mainly concentrated in the southeastern and northwestern parts of the study area. The proportion of areas with increasing trends is 4.49% and 7.05% respectively, scattered in patches in the central and southern edge areas. Surface temperature (ST), Digital Elevation Map (DEM), and Green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) are the most influential factors determining the spatial distribution of ecological risks in QMNPQA. The effects of management and climatic factors on ecological risks demonstrate a significant antagonistic effect, highlighting the positive contributions of human activities in mitigating the driving effects of climate change on ecological risks. The research results can provide reference for desertification prevention and ecological quality improvement in QMNPQA.}, }
@article {pmid38833756, year = {2024}, author = {Siemon, M and Diekema, AR and Calabria, RA}, title = {Cross sectional survey of attitudes on sustainability and climate change among baccalaureate nursing faculty and students.}, journal = {Nurse education today}, volume = {140}, number = {}, pages = {106268}, doi = {10.1016/j.nedt.2024.106268}, pmid = {38833756}, issn = {1532-2793}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Nurse educators are critical to ensuring future nurses are prepared to meet healthcare needs due to climate change.<br><br>AIM: The purpose of this research was to assess the attitudes of nursing students and faculty on sustainability and climate change in nursing and nursing education.<br><br>DESIGN: This study used a descriptive, cross-sectional online survey of nursing students and faculty recruited online and at national conferences.<br><br>SETTINGS: Online survey.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: A convenience sample of students and faculty were recruited from a national student nursing convention and a national meeting of community health nursing educators along with the principal investigator's university. Additional faculty were recruited from national nursing education organization email listservs. Eligibility criteria included adults 18&#xa0;years or older who are enrolled students or faculty in an undergraduate nursing program.<br><br>METHODS: Participants completed the Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey (SANS_2) survey online. Survey responses were downloaded and analyzed using IBM SPSS.<br><br>RESULTS: Independent sample Mann-Whitney U tests of responses from faculty and students was significantly different, p&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.047, for the question "Issues about climate change should be included in the nursing curriculum". Comparison of SANS_2 overall means from first-year nursing students in other countries showed lower mean scores among first-year&#xa0;U.S. students that climate and sustainability are important issues of nursing and nursing education. Comparison of faculty overall SANS_2 means found greater support for including climate change and sustainability among U.S. nursing faculty when compared with faculty from South Carolina.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results of the survey found differences in support among baccalaureate faculty and students for including climate change and sustainability in nursing education. Additional research into the effectiveness of learning activities needs to be done by nurse educators and researchers as part of on-going efforts to ensure future nursing students understand the impact of climate change on health.}, }
@article {pmid38833510, year = {2024}, author = {Hou, L and Yang, J and Ji, C and Liu, M and Fang, W and Ma, Z and Bi, J}, title = {Water Scarcity Assessment of Hydropower Plants in China under Climate Change, Sectoral Competition, and Energy Expansion.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.4c00671}, pmid = {38833510}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {Hydropower plays a pivotal role in low-carbon electricity generation, yet many projects are situated in regions facing heightened water scarcity risks. This research devised a plant-level Hydropower Water Scarcity Index (HWSI), derived from the ratio of water demand for electricity generation to basin-scale available runoff water. We assessed the water scarcity of 1736 hydropower plants in China for the baseline year 2018 and projected into the future from 2025 to 2060. The results indicate a notable increase in hydropower generation facing moderate to severe water scarcity (HWSI >0.05), rising from 10% in 2018 to 24-34% of the national total (430-630 TWh), with a projected peak in the 2030s-2040s under the most pessimistic scenarios. Hotspots of risk are situated in the southwest and northern regions, primarily driven by decreased river basin runoff and intensified sectoral water use, rather than by hydropower demand expansion. Comparative analysis of four adaptation strategies revealed that sectoral water savings and enhancing power generation efficiency are the most effective, potentially mitigating a high of 16% of hydropower risks in China. This study provides insights for formulating region-specific adaptation strategies and assessing energy-water security in the face of evolving environmental and societal challenges.}, }
@article {pmid38833237, year = {2024}, author = {Pelissolo, A}, title = {[Eco-anxiety: an emerging disorder linked to climate change].}, journal = {La Revue du praticien}, volume = {74}, number = {5}, pages = {529-532}, pmid = {38833237}, issn = {2101-017X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Anxiety Disorders/therapy/diagnosis/epidemiology ; Anxiety/therapy/diagnosis ; }, abstract = {AN EMERGING DISORDER LINKED TO CLIMATE CHANGE. Eco-anxiety is the chronic fear of an environmental disaster, particularly in relation to global warming. Emerging in the 1990s, this concern is increasingly developing in all countries, especially among younger generations. It is not currently recognized as a diagnosis in psychiatric classifications, but some people (about 3% of the population) experience significant suffering and symptoms that can impair their quality of life. The role of the physician is then to look for an underlying anxiety or depressive disorder, or to assess the intensity of a possible specific Eco-anxiety Disorder. Treatment is based primarily on psychotherapeutic listening, stress and anxiety management methods, and cognitive behavioral therapy aimed at giving the patient better control over their emotions and means of action.}, }
@article {pmid38832754, year = {2024}, author = {Adame, BJ and Mattson, LD}, title = {Vested Interest Theory as a Framework for Understanding Anthropogenic Climate Change Risk Perceptions.}, journal = {Health communication}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-10}, doi = {10.1080/10410236.2024.2357443}, pmid = {38832754}, issn = {1532-7027}, abstract = {Climate change due to anthropogenic activities is contributing to the systematic warming of Earth. A warming planet represents an existential threat to humanity, contributing to the increased frequency and magnitude of multiple natural hazards. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that time is running out to create meaningful change to avert climate-related consequences. This research posits Vested Interest Theory (VIT) as a potentially useful framework for assessing attitudes and risk perceptions associated with anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Vested Interest Theory mediates the attitude-behavior relationship where highly vested individuals are more likely to behave in attitudinally-consistent ways. Vestedness is conceptualized as five distinct and observable variables: salience, certainty, immediacy, self-efficacy, and response-efficacy. To test VIT's efficacy in this context, a survey was conducted with participants crowdsourced from Amazon's Mechanical Turk platform (N = 1053). Participants responded to items designed to measure their individual vestedness in ACC consequences, risk perceptions, and behavioral intentions. This initial investigation shows that VIT's constituent variables predict consequential amounts of observed variance in critical variables including risk perception, perceived event severity, and behavioral intentions related to ACC hazard mitigation. The results support the use of VIT as a framework for understanding attitude-behavior relationships associated with ACC mitigation. Based on these findings, we argue that VIT can also serve as a valuable message design framework to motivate ACC-related mitigation actions.}, }
@article {pmid38831666, year = {2024}, author = {Lee, BY and Pavilonis, B and John, DC and Heneghan, J and Bartsch, SM and Kavouras, I}, title = {The Need to Focus More on Climate Change Communication and Incorporate More Systems Approaches.}, journal = {Journal of health communication}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-10}, doi = {10.1080/10810730.2024.2361566}, pmid = {38831666}, issn = {1087-0415}, abstract = {Society is at an inflection point-both in terms of climate change and the amount of data and computational resources currently available. Climate change has been a catastrophe in slow motion with relationships between human activity, climate change, and the resulting effects forming a complex system. However, to date, there has been a general lack of urgent responses from leaders and the general public, despite urgent warnings from the scientific community about the consequences of climate change and what can be done to mitigate it. Further, misinformation and disinformation about climate change abound. A major problem is that there has not been enough focus on communication in the climate change field. Since communication itself involves complex systems (e.g. information users, information itself, communications channels), there is a need for more systems approaches to communication about climate change. Utilizing systems approaches to really understand and anticipate how information may be distributed and received before communication has even occurred and adjust accordingly can lead to more proactive precision climate change communication. The time has come to identify and develop more effective, tailored, and precise communication for climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38830920, year = {2024}, author = {Sarre, A and Demarcq, H and Keenlyside, N and Krakstad, JO and El Ayoubi, S and Jeyid, AM and Faye, S and Mbaye, A and Sidibeh, M and Brehmer, P}, title = {Climate change impacts on small pelagic fish distribution in Northwest Africa: trends, shifts, and risk for food security.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {12684}, pmid = {38830920}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {101003470//European Commission/ ; 603521//FP7 Cooperation/ ; 01DG12073E//Institut de Recherche pour le D&#xe9;veloppement/ ; 01DG12073E//Bundesministerium f&#xfc;r Bildung und Forschung/ ; Nansen//Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation/ ; EAF-Nansen//Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations/ ; GCP/INT/730/NOR//Havforskningsinstituttet/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; *Fishes/physiology ; *Food Security ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is recognised to lead to spatial shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by altering their environmental optima. Fish supply along the Northwest African coast is significant at both socio-economic and cultural levels. Evaluating the impacts of climatic change on small pelagic fish is a challenge and of serious concern in the context of shared stock management. Evaluating the impact of climate change on the distribution of small pelagic fish, a trend analysis was conducted using data from 2363 trawl samplings and 170,000 km of acoustics sea surveys. Strong warming is reported across the Southern Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), extending from Morocco to Senegal. Over 34 years, several trends emerged, with the southern CCLME experiencing increases in both wind speed and upwelling intensity, particularly where the coastal upwelling was already the strongest. Despite upwelling-induced cooling mechanisms, sea surface temperature (SST) increased in most areas, indicating the complex interplay of climatic-related stressors in shaping the marine ecosystem. Concomitant northward shifts in the distribution of small pelagic species were attributed to long-term warming trends in SST and a decrease in marine productivity in the south. The abundance of Sardinella aurita, the most abundant species along the coast, has increased in the subtropics and fallen in the intertropical region. Spatial shifts in biomass were observed for other exploited small pelagic species, similar to those recorded for surface isotherms. An intensification in upwelling intensity within the northern and central regions of the system is documented without a change in marine primary productivity. In contrast, upwelling intensity is stable in the southern region, while there is a decline in primary productivity. These environmental differences affected several small pelagic species across national boundaries. This adds a new threat to these recently overexploited fish stocks, making sustainable management more difficult. Such changes must motivate common regional policy considerations for food security and sovereignty in all West African countries sharing the same stocks.}, }
@article {pmid38830285, year = {2024}, author = {Moussavi A, SMR and Lak, A}, title = {Cultural landscapes in climate change: A framework for resilience in developing countries.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {362}, number = {}, pages = {121310}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121310}, pmid = {38830285}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Cultural landscapes, particularly cities with rich historical and cultural heritage, play a crucial role in bolstering the resilience of local communities. The occurrence of climate change-induced phenomena jeopardizes cultural landscapes, resulting in the deterioration of historical structures, natural landscapes, cultural heritage, the economy, and the livelihoods of residents in these areas. Therefore, adopting a resilient approach is essential for the integrated management of cultural landscapes. This study develops a model for enhancing cultural landscape resilience to climate change in Nishapur, a historical and cultural city in Iran. Through desk studies, factors affecting the resilience of cultural landscapes to climate change were extracted in the context of developing countries. Subsequently, a model was developed based on the frequency of the occurrence of dimensions and indicators. Snowball sampling was used to distribute questionnaires to 310 members of the academic and professional communities in the field. Next, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted using IBM SEM-AMOS to analyze the data and measure the reliability and validity of the model. The findings indicate that the driving factors of change, such as changes in livelihood and social issues, historical fabric and physical environment, natural hazards, biodiversity patterns, and management patterns, can significantly affect the resilience of cultural landscapes to climate change. The developed model can contribute to policymaking in various fields, including urban design and planning, economics, sociology, and cultural heritage conservation. This can play a vital role in creating cultural landscapes that are resilient to the increasing impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38828386, year = {2024}, author = {Wong, A and Frommel, AY and Sumaila, UR and Cheung, WWL}, title = {A traits-based approach to assess aquaculture's contributions to food, climate change, and biodiversity goals.}, journal = {npj ocean sustainability}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {30}, pmid = {38828386}, issn = {2731-426X}, abstract = {Aquaculture has the potential to support a sustainable and equitable food system in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) on food security, climate change, and biodiversity (FCB). Biological diversity amongst aquaculture organisms can drive diverse contributions to such goals. Existing studies have assessed the performance of a limited number of taxa in the general context of improving aquaculture production, but few explicitly consider the biological attributes of farmed aquatic taxa at the FCB nexus. Through a systematic literature review, we identify key traits associated with FCB and evaluate the potential of aquaculture to contribute to FCB goals using a fuzzy logic model. The majority of identified traits are associated with food security, and two-thirds of traits linked with food security are also associated with climate change or biodiversity, revealing potential co-benefits of optimizing a single trait. Correlations between FCB indices further suggest that challenges and opportunities in aquaculture are intertwined across FCB goals, but low mean FCB scores suggest that the focus of aquaculture research and development on food production is insufficient to address food security, much less climate or biodiversity issues. As expected, production-maximizing traits (absolute fecundity, the von Bertalanffy growth function coefficient K, macronutrient density, maximum size, and trophic level as a proxy for feed efficiency) highly influence a species' FCB potential, but so do species preferences for environmental conditions (tolerance to phosphates, nitrates, and pH levels, as well as latitudinal and geographic ranges). Many highly farmed species that are typically associated with food security, especially finfish, score poorly for food, climate, and biodiversity potential. Algae and mollusc species tend to perform well across FCB indices, revealing the importance of non-fish species in achieving FCB goals and potential synergies in integrated multi-trophic aquaculture systems. Overall, this study provides decision-makers with a biologically informed assessment of desirable aquaculture traits and species while illuminating possible strategies to increase support for FCB goals. Our findings can be used as a foundation for studying the socio-economic opportunities and barriers for aquaculture transitions to develop equitable pathways toward FCB-positive aquaculture across nuanced regional contexts.}, }
@article {pmid38827129, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, S and Liu, Y and Teschke, K and Hindell, MA and Downey, R and Woods, B and Kang, B and Ma, S and Zhang, C and Li, J and Ye, Z and Sun, P and He, J and Tian, Y}, title = {Correction: Incorporating mesopelagic fish into the evaluation of marine protected areas under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Marine life science &amp; technology}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {363-364}, doi = {10.1007/s42995-023-00193-y}, pmid = {38827129}, issn = {2662-1746}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1007/s42995-023-00188-9.].}, }
@article {pmid38826170, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, L and Ling, J and Lu, L and Zang, D and Zhu, Y and Zhang, S and Zhou, Y and Yi, P and Li, E and Pan, T and Wu, X}, title = {Identification of suitable habitats and priority conservation areas under climate change scenarios for the Chinese alligator (Alligator sinensis).}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e11477}, pmid = {38826170}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Amphibians and reptiles, especially the critically endangered Chinese alligators, are vulnerable to climate change. Historically, the decline in suitable habitats and fragmentation has restricted the distribution of Chinese alligators to a small area in southeast Anhui Province in China. However, the effects of climate change on range-restricted Chinese alligator habitats are largely unknown. We aimed to predict current and future (2050s and 2070s) Chinese alligator distribution and identify priority conservation areas under climate change. We employed species distribution models, barycenter migration analyses, and the Marxian model to assess current and future Chinese alligator distribution and identify priority conservation areas under climate change. The results showed that the lowest temperature and rainfall seasonality in the coldest month were the two most important factors affecting the distribution of Chinese alligators. Future predictions indicate a reduction (3.39%-98.41%) in suitable habitats and a westward shift in their distribution. Further, the study emphasizes that suitable habitats for Chinese alligators are threatened by climate change. Despite the impact of the Anhui Chinese Alligator National Nature Reserve, protection gaps persist, with 78.27% of the area lacking priority protected area. Our study provides crucial data for Chinese alligator adaptation to climate change and underscores the need for improved conservation strategies. Future research should refine conservation efforts, consider individual plasticity, and address identified limitations to enhance the resilience of Chinese alligator populations in the face of ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38826112, year = {2024}, author = {Maibach, E and Kotcher, J and Patel, L}, title = {We can use our superpower to help end fossil fuel pollution and rise to the challenge of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of communication in healthcare}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1080/17538068.2024.2357949}, pmid = {38826112}, issn = {1753-8076}, abstract = {In this commentary, we argue that health professionals can play a pivotal role in accelerating the adoption of public policies that will help communities, nations, and the world end fossil fuel pollution and rise to the challenges of climate change. We briefly describe our previously published research showing that communicating about fossil fuel pollution and the health relevance of climate change has many benefits in building public support for climate action. Most importantly, we make the case that because health professionals, especially medical doctors and other clinicians, are highly trusted, we collectively have a unique opportunity to bring people together across the political continuum to have constructive dialogues about the intertwined problems of fossil fuel pollution and climate change and what to do about them - even in the current hyper-partisan environment.}, }
@article {pmid38823722, year = {2024}, author = {Rijal, M and Luo, P and Mishra, BK and Zhou, M and Wang, X}, title = {Global systematical and comprehensive overview of mountainous flood risk under climate change and human activities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173672}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173672}, pmid = {38823722}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Snow-covered mountainous regions are crucial for the hydrologic cycle. Any changes in the 3 cryosphere are critical and directly impact the hydrologic cycle and socio-environment of the 4 downstream. It is likely to occur more extreme events of precipitations, raising the risk of 5 flooding worldwide. Glacier melting is increasing, thus the formation of the moraine-dammed 6 lake called glacial lake, whose outburst may be a catastrophic disaster. Due to steep topography, 7 flash floods with high energy can sweep away infrastructure, electric power stations, property, 8 and livelihood and even change the channel morphology, hence the whole environment. In this 9 article, we present the causes of flooding in mountainous regions and historical trends of 10 mountainous flooding and its management policies. Carbon emission is a driver to increase the 11 temperature of the globe and which is triggering the flash floods in mountainous regions is 12 illustrated using data from different sources. The discussion section includes how technology 13 helps to achieve a climate-resilient environment. Understanding river morphology, mapping 14 and monitoring risks, and simulating essential natural processes are necessary for reducing the 15 cascading hazards in the mountains. There is still a gap in modern data collection techniques in 16 mountainous regions. More advanced technology for regional and global collaborations, 17 climate change adaption, and public awareness can build the climate resilience cryosphere.}, }
@article {pmid38822670, year = {2024}, author = {Garroway, CJ and de Greef, E and Lefort, KJ and Thorstensen, MJ and Foote, AD and Matthews, CJD and Higdon, JW and Kucheravy, CE and Petersen, SD and Rosing-Asvid, A and Ugarte, F and Dietz, R and Ferguson, SH}, title = {Climate change introduces threatened killer whale populations and conservation challenges to the Arctic.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {e17352}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17352}, pmid = {38822670}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Nunavut Wildlife Management Board/ ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //Fisheries and Oceans Canada/ ; //Prairies DRI/ ; //Digital Research Alliance of Canada - Prairies DRI Group/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Whale, Killer/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Arctic Regions ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Endangered Species ; Canada ; }, abstract = {The Arctic is the fastest-warming region on the planet, and the lengthening ice-free season is opening Arctic waters to sub-Arctic species such as the killer whale (Orcinus orca). As apex predators, killer whales can cause significant ecosystem-scale changes. Setting conservation priorities for killer whales and their Arctic prey species requires knowledge of their evolutionary history and demographic trajectory. Using whole-genome resequencing of 24 killer whales sampled in the northwest Atlantic, we first explored the population structure and demographic history of Arctic killer whales. To better understand the broader geographic relationship of these Arctic killer whales to other populations, we compared them to a globally sampled dataset. Finally, we assessed threats to Arctic killer whales due to anthropogenic harvest by reviewing the peer-reviewed and gray literature. We found that there are two highly genetically distinct, non-interbreeding populations of killer whales using the eastern Canadian Arctic. These populations appear to be as genetically different from each other as are ecotypes described elsewhere in the killer whale range; however, our data cannot speak to ecological differences between these populations. One population is newly identified as globally genetically distinct, and the second is genetically similar to individuals sampled from Greenland. The effective sizes of both populations recently declined, and both appear vulnerable to inbreeding and reduced adaptive potential. Our survey of human-caused mortalities suggests that harvest poses an ongoing threat to both populations. The dynamic Arctic environment complicates conservation and management efforts, with killer whales adding top-down pressure on Arctic food webs crucial to northern communities' social and economic well-being. While killer whales represent a conservation priority, they also complicate decisions surrounding wildlife conservation and resource management in the Arctic amid the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38822198, year = {2024}, author = {Das, U and Datta, P and Behera, B}, title = {Identification of Major Threats of Climate Change, Hazards, and Anthropogenic Activities on Biodiversity Conservation in the Buxa Tiger Reserve, India.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38822198}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {The Himalayan forests are facing a range of threats, which are making conservation efforts challenging. Using a mixed-method approach, this study investigated the threats to biodiversity conservation in Buxa Tiger Reserve (BTR), a fragile ecosystem in the Eastern Himalayan foothills. The study found that between 1990 and 2021, BTR experienced rising summer temperatures and decreasing annual precipitation, contributing to forest dryness, water scarcity, and forest fires. Natural disasters such as floods, flash floods, earthquakes, and landslides also caused significant damage to wildlife habitats. Changes in land use and land cover, including encroachment, infrastructure development, fuelwood collection, and grazing practices, were also identified as significant drivers of ecosystem alteration. Besides, hunting and poaching also emerged as threats to wildlife populations in the reserve. By employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the study determined that land use change, infrastructure development, climate change, livestock grazing, and fuelwood collection pose significant threats to flora conservation outcomes in BTR, while infrastructure development, climate change, livestock grazing, and forest fires are the primary threats to wildlife conservation outcomes in the reserve. The study recommends the regulation of land use practices, promotion of sustainable livelihoods for local communities, effective conservation strategies, and public awareness and education programs to promote the value of biodiversity conservation.}, }
@article {pmid38822036, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, Z and Zhang, Q and Chen, B and Yu, Y and Wang, T and Xu, N and Fan, X and Penuelas, J and Fu, Z and Deng, Y and Zhu, YG and Qian, H}, title = {Global biogeography of microbes driving ocean ecological status under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {4657}, pmid = {38822036}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {22241603-3//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 22376187//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Oceans and Seas ; *Microbiota ; Seawater/microbiology ; Ecosystem ; Carbon Cycle ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Microbial communities play a crucial role in ocean ecology and global biogeochemical processes. However, understanding the intricate interactions among diversity, taxonomical composition, functional traits, and how these factors respond to climate change remains a significant challenge. Here, we propose seven distinct ecological statuses by systematically considering the diversity, structure, and biogeochemical potential of the ocean microbiome to delineate their biogeography. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter the ecological status of the surface ocean by influencing environmental conditions, particularly nutrient and oxygen contents. Our predictive model, which utilizes machine learning, indicates that the ecological status of approximately 32.44% of the surface ocean may undergo changes from the present to the end of this century, assuming no policy interventions. These changes mainly include poleward shifts in the main taxa, increases in photosynthetic carbon fixation and decreases in nutrient metabolism. However, this proportion can decrease significantly with effective control of greenhouse gas emissions. Our study underscores the urgent necessity for implementing policies to mitigate climate change, particularly from an ecological perspective.}, }
@article {pmid38821947, year = {2024}, author = {van Tiel, N and Fopp, F and Brun, P and van den Hoogen, J and Karger, DN and Casadei, CM and Lyu, L and Tuia, D and Zimmermann, NE and Crowther, TW and Pellissier, L}, title = {Regional uniqueness of tree species composition and response to forest loss and climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {4375}, pmid = {38821947}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {204057/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 20BD21_193907//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; 20BD21_184131//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; 204057/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 20BD21_193907//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Trees ; *Biodiversity ; *Phylogeny ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The conservation and restoration of forest ecosystems require detailed knowledge of the native plant compositions. Here, we map global forest tree composition and assess the impacts of historical forest cover loss and climate change on trees. The global occupancy of 10,590 tree species reveals complex taxonomic and phylogenetic gradients determining a local signature of tree lineage assembly. Species occupancy analyses indicate that historical forest loss has significantly restricted the potential suitable range of tree species in all forest biomes. Nevertheless, tropical moist and boreal forest biomes display the lowest level of range restriction and harbor extremely large ranged tree species, albeit with a stark contrast in richness and composition. Climate change simulations indicate that forest biomes are projected to differ in their response to climate change, with the highest predicted species loss in tropical dry and Mediterranean ecoregions. Our findings highlight the need for preserving the remaining large forest biomes while regenerating degraded forests in a way that provides resilience against climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38821079, year = {2024}, author = {Berg, CD}, title = {Addressing oncology's contribution to climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Oncology}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {690-691}, doi = {10.1016/S1470-2045(24)00214-6}, pmid = {38821079}, issn = {1474-5488}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Medical Oncology ; *Neoplasms/therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid38820516, year = {2024}, author = {Cai, C and Lv, L and Wei, S and Zhang, L and Cao, W}, title = {How does climate change affect potential yields of four staple grain crops worldwide by 2030?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {e0303857}, pmid = {38820516}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; *Zea mays/growth &amp; development ; *Triticum/growth &amp; development ; *Oryza/growth &amp; development ; Edible Grain/growth &amp; development ; Glycine max/growth &amp; development ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {Global food security basically depends on potential yields of staple grain crops worldwide, especially under climate change. However, most scholars use various models of production function in which climatic factors are often considered to estimate crop yield mostly at local or regional level. Therefore, in this paper: Potential yields of rice, wheat, maize and soybean worldwide by 2030 are projected creatively using Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average and Trend Regressed (ARIMA-TR) model in which actual yields in recent two years are used for testing the reliability of projection and Gray System (GS) model for validating the test; Especially individual impacts of climate change on the productions of rice, wheat, maize and soybean worldwide since 1961 are analyzed by using unary regression model in which global mean temperature and land precipitation are independent variable while the yield of crop being dependent one, respectively. Results show that: by 2030, the ratio between average and top yields of world rice is projected to be 50.6% increasing, while those of world wheat, world maize and world soybean are projected to be 38.0% increasing, 14.7% decreasing and 72.5% increasing, respectively. Since 1961 global warming has exerted a negative impact on average yield of world rice less than on its top, a positive effect on average yield of world wheat while a negative impact on its top, a positive effect on average yield of world maize less than on its top, and a positive influence on average yield of world soybean while a negative one on its top, which might be slightly mitigated by 'Carbon Peak' target. The fluctuation of global rainfall contributes to the productions of these crops much less than global warming during same period. Our findings indicate that: to improve global production of four staple grain crops by 2030, the priorities of input should be given to either rice or wheat in both high and low yield countries, whereas to maize in high yield countries and to soybean in low yield countries. These insights highlight some difference from previous studies, and provide academia with innovative comprehension and policy-decision makers with supportive information on sustainable production of these four staple grain crops for global food security under climate change in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38818020, year = {2024}, author = {Bellehumeur, CR and Carignan, LM}, title = {On proposing relational environmental metaphors to stimulate engagement and foster well-being in the midst of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychiatry}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1377205}, pmid = {38818020}, issn = {1664-0640}, abstract = {Messages regarding climate change that are intended to stimulate responsible engagement can impact our mental health in both positive and negative ways, which in turn can increase or limit the potential engagement being sought through those very messages. Increasingly alarmist environmental metaphors are being brought into question due to their possibly detrimental impact on mental health and well-being, and in their place, relational environmental metaphors are proffered to instill hopeful and constructive individual and collective engagement for responsible climate action. This article discusses how both alarmist and relational environmental metaphors interact with eco-emotions. It proposes, in light of concepts arising from Porges' Polyvagal Theory - on the psychophysiology of autonomic states created in contexts of threatening cues and feelings of safety and connection -, that relational environmental metaphors are preferable for stimulating responsible collective engagement and fostering global well-being in the midst of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38817934, year = {2024}, author = {Xian, X and Qi, Y and Zhao, H and Cao, J and Jia, T and Yang, N and Wan, F and Weyl, P and Liu, WX}, title = {Temperature extremes nip invasive macrophyte Cabomba caroliniana A. Gray in the bud: potential geographic distributions and risk assessment based on future climate change and anthropogenic influences.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1393663}, pmid = {38817934}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Cabomba caroliniana A. Gray, an ornamental submerged plant indigenous to tropical America, has been introduced to numerous countries in Europe, Asia, and Oceania, impacting native aquatic ecosystems. Given this species is a popular aquarium plant and widely traded, there is a high risk of introduction and invasion into other environments. In the current study the potential global geographic distribution of C. caroliniana was predicted under the effects of climate change and human influence in an optimised MaxEnt model. The model used rigorously screened occurrence records of C. caroliniana from hydro informatic datasets and 20 associated influencing factors. The findings indicate that temperature and human-mediated activities significantly influenced the distribution of C. caroliniana. At present, C. caroliniana covers an area of approximately 1531×10[4] km[2] of appropriate habitat, especially in the south-eastern parts of South, central and North America, Southeast Asia, eastern Australia, and most of Europe. The suitable regions are anticipated to expand under future climate scenarios; however, the dynamics of the changes vary between different extents of climate change. For example, C. caroliniana is expected to expand to higher latitudes, following global temperature increases under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, however, intolerance to temperature extremes may mediate invasion at higher latitudes under future extreme climate scenarios, e.g., SSP5-8.5. Owing to the severe impacts its invasion causes, early warning and stringent border quarantine processes are required to guard against the introduction of C. caroliniana especially in the invasion hotspots such as, Peru, Italy, and South Korea.}, }
@article {pmid38815223, year = {2024}, author = {Becker, J and McDermott-Levy, R and Moore, C and Mitsdarffer, ML}, title = {Social Capital as a Framework to Address Organizational Climate Change Policy.}, journal = {Journal of gerontological nursing}, volume = {50}, number = {6}, pages = {11-15}, doi = {10.3928/00989134-20240502-02}, pmid = {38815223}, issn = {0098-9134}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Pennsylvania ; Aged ; *Social Capital ; Organizational Policy ; Male ; Female ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Geriatric Nursing ; Aged, 80 and over ; Middle Aged ; Health Policy ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: To examine state Area Agencies on Aging (AAAs) in Pennsylvania for services they provide to older adults regarding extreme events and how readiness can be captured through social networks and policies at the local, state, and federal levels.<br><br>METHOD: Using an online survey, 79% of AAA directors answered questions describing perceptions and actions related to social capital and its influence on policy.<br><br>RESULTS: AAAs acknowledged weather/temperature changes impact the need to prepare for common scenarios of extreme weather, temperature, and flooding. AAAs reported major social connections with county government and one state agency, with limited connections with federal agencies.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Multiple opportunities exist for AAAs to consider climate change in expansion efforts, specifically regarding health care. Geriatric nurses can play a key role in expansion, advocacy, and policy development for AAAs that serve older adults in the context of climate change. [Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 50(6), 11-15.].}, }
@article {pmid38814920, year = {2024}, author = {Dalapati, T and Alway, EJ and Mantri, S and Mitchell, P and George, IA and Kaplan, S and Andolsek, KM and Velkey, JM and Lawson, J and Muzyk, AJ}, title = {Development of a curricular thread to foster medical students' critical reflection and promote action on climate change, health, and equity.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {e0303615}, pmid = {38814920}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Students, Medical/psychology ; *Curriculum ; Education, Medical, Undergraduate ; Health Equity ; Problem-Based Learning ; Female ; Male ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Due to the health consequences arising from climate change, medical students will inevitably interact with affected patients during their training and careers. Accordingly, medical schools must incorporate education on the impacts of climate change on health and equity into their curricula. We created a curricular thread called "Climate Change, Health, and Equity" in the first-year preclinical medical program to teach foundational concepts and foster self-reflection and critical consciousness.<br><br>METHODS: The authors developed a continuum of practice including administrators, educators and faculty members, students, and community partners to plan and design curricular activities. First-year medical students at Duke University School of Medicine participated in seven mandatory foundational lectures and two experiential learning opportunities in the local community. Following completion of activities, students wrote a critical reflection essay and completed a self-directed learning exercise. Essays were evaluated using the REFLECT rubric to assess if students achieved critical reflection and for thematic analysis by Bloom's Taxonomy.<br><br>RESULTS: All students (118) submitted essays. A random sample of 30 (25%) essays underwent analysis. Evaluation by the REFLECT rubric underscored that all students were reflecting or critically reflecting on thread content. Thematic analysis highlighted that all students (30/30, 100%) were adept at identifying new areas of medical knowledge and connecting concepts to individual experiences, institutional practices, and public health and policy. Most students (27/30; 90%) used emotionally laden words, expressing negative feelings like frustration and fear but also positive sentiments of solidarity and hope regarding climate change and effects on health. Many students (24/30; 80%) expressed actionable items at every level including continuing self-directed learning and conversing with patients, minimizing healthcare waste, and advocating for climate-friendly policies.<br><br>CONCLUSION: After participating in the curricular thread, most medical students reflected on cognitive, affective, and actionable aspects relating to climate change, health, and equity.}, }
@article {pmid38814862, year = {2024}, author = {Konkel Neabore, L}, title = {Erratum: "Wake-up Call: Rapid Increase in Human Fungal Diseases under Climate Change".}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {132}, number = {5}, pages = {59001}, doi = {10.1289/EHP15250}, pmid = {38814862}, issn = {1552-9924}, }
@article {pmid38814855, year = {2024}, author = {Williams, SL and Toda, M and Chiller, T and Brunkard, JM and Litvintseva, AP}, title = {Effects of climate change on fungal infections.}, journal = {PLoS pathogens}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {e1012219}, pmid = {38814855}, issn = {1553-7374}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mycoses/microbiology ; Fungi/pathogenicity ; Animals ; }, }
@article {pmid38814622, year = {2024}, author = {Nogueira, LM and Ross, AJ and D'Angelo, H and Neta, G}, title = {Climate Change in Comprehensive Cancer Control Plans in the US.}, journal = {JAMA oncology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jamaoncol.2024.1294}, pmid = {38814622}, issn = {2374-2445}, }
@article {pmid38813895, year = {2024}, author = {Kish-Doto, J and Gloria, CT}, title = {Change is in the air: considerations for how we communicate about climate change and health.}, journal = {Journal of communication in healthcare}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1080/17538068.2024.2357948}, pmid = {38813895}, issn = {1753-8076}, }
@article {pmid38812737, year = {2024}, author = {Zheng, Y and Yang, Q and Zhou, H and Xu, M}, title = {Editorial: Carbon-water-nitrogen processes and mechanisms of agricultural and forest ecosystems under future climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1423506}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2024.1423506}, pmid = {38812737}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid38811837, year = {2024}, author = {Chevalier, M and Broennimann, O and Guisan, A}, title = {Climate change may reveal currently unavailable parts of species' ecological niches.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38811837}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {315230_184908//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; 310030L_197777//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/ ; }, abstract = {The ability of climatic niche models to predict species extinction risks can be hampered if niches are incompletely quantified. This can occur when niches are estimated considering only currently available climatic conditions, disregarding the fact that climate change can open up portions of the fundamental niche that are currently inaccessible to species. Using a new metric, we estimate the prevalence of potential situations of fundamental niche truncation by measuring whether current ecological niche limits are contiguous to the boundaries of currently available climatic conditions for 24,944 species at the global scale in both terrestrial and marine realms and including animals and plants. We show that 12,172 (~49%) species are showing niche contiguity, particularly those inhabiting tropical ecosystems and the marine realm. Using niche expansion scenarios, we find that 86% of species showing niche contiguity could have a fundamental niche potentially expanding beyond current climatic limits, resulting in lower-yet still alarming-rates of predicted biodiversity loss, particularly within the tropics. Caution is therefore advised when forecasting future distributions of species presenting niche contiguity, particularly towards climatic limits that are predicted to expand in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38811783, year = {2024}, author = {Coleman, J}, title = {Chance of heatwaves in India rising with climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-01577-5}, pmid = {38811783}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38810746, year = {2024}, author = {Fernández, TI and Rubilar, O and Parada, J and Fincheira, P and Benavides-Mendoza, A and Duran, P and Fernández-Baldo, M and Seabra, AB and Tortella, GR}, title = {Metal nanoparticles and pesticides under global climate change: Assessing the combined effects of multiple abiotic stressors on soil microbial ecosystems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173494}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173494}, pmid = {38810746}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The soil is a vital resource that hosts many microorganisms crucial in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem health. However, human activities such as the use of metal nanoparticles (MNPs), pesticides and the impacts of global climate change (GCCh) can significantly affect soil microbial communities (SMC). For many years, pesticides and, more recently, nanoparticles have contributed to sustainable agriculture to ensure continuous food production to sustain the significant growth of the world population and, therefore, the demand for food. Pesticides have a recognized pest control capacity. On the other hand, nanoparticles have demonstrated a high ability to improve water and nutrient retention, promote plant growth, and control pests. However, it has been reported that their accumulation in agricultural soils can also adversely affect the environment and soil microbial health. In addition, climate change, with its variations in temperature and extreme water conditions, can lead to drought and increased soil salinity, modifying both soil conditions and the composition and function of microbial communities. Abiotic stressors can interact and synergistically or additively affect soil microorganisms, significantly impacting soil functioning and the capacity to provide ecosystem services. Therefore, this work reviewed the current scientific literature to understand how multiple stressors interact and affect the SMC. In addition, the importance of molecular tools such as metagenomics, metatranscriptomics, proteomics, or metabolomics in the study of the responses of SMC to exposure to multiple abiotic stressors was examined. Future research directions were also proposed, focusing on exploring the complex interactions between stressors and their long-term effects and developing strategies for sustainable soil management. These efforts will contribute to the preservation of soil health and the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices.}, }
@article {pmid38810531, year = {2024}, author = {Lin, PJ and Hershey, MS and Lee, TI and Shih, CW and Tausi, S and Sosene, V and Maani, PP and Tupulaga, M and Hsu, YT and Chang, CR and Wu, SM and López-Gil, JF and Tang, LI and Shiau, SC and Lo, YH and Wei, CF}, title = {Temporal trends of food consumption patterns in Tuvalu under the context of climate change: COMmunity-based Behavior and Attitude survey in Tuvalu (COMBAT) since 2020.}, journal = {Nutrition (Burbank, Los Angeles County, Calif.)}, volume = {125}, number = {}, pages = {112488}, doi = {10.1016/j.nut.2024.112488}, pmid = {38810531}, issn = {1873-1244}, abstract = {AIM: The aim of this study was to analyze temporal trends of food consumption patterns, attitudes, and health-related knowledge in Tuvalu, a small Pacific Island country facing the triple threat of obesity, climate change, and food insecurity.<br><br>METHODS: Two waves of the COMmunity-based Behavior and Attitude (COMBAT) survey were conducted in 2020 and 2022. Descriptive characteristics of changes in obesity proportion, food intake, and sociodemographic factors were assessed. Additionally, this study also integrates individual climate data utilizing satellite-based prediction models, and estimates historical temperature, precipitation, and sea level trends among all islands in Tuvalu.<br><br>RESULTS: The study revealed a high obesity proportion among adults (69.5% in 2020, 73.2% in 2022) and an increase in the percentage of adolescents with a high waist circumference. Variations in food intake were also observed between the two waves of the survey.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The data collected in the COMBAT study provides valuable insights for future epidemiological research to elucidate the associations and causal relationships between climate change, food security, and non-communicable diseases in Tuvalu.}, }
@article {pmid38809135, year = {2024}, author = {Walker, DM and Swoboda, CM and Garman, AN and DePUCCIO, MJ and Mayers, E and Sinclair, A and McALEARNEY, AS}, title = {Does Climate Change Affect Health? Beliefs from the Health Information National Trends Survey.}, journal = {Journal of health communication}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-7}, doi = {10.1080/10810730.2024.2360023}, pmid = {38809135}, issn = {1087-0415}, abstract = {Climate change is currently and will continue impacting human health, however, beliefs about the level of threat vary by demographics, region, and ideology. The purpose of this study was to assess factors related to climate change and health beliefs using cross-sectional data from the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS). Data from 5,075 respondents in the 2022 iteration of HINTS was used for this study. Chi-square tests were used to evaluate demographic differences among those who believe climate change will harm health a lot compared to some, a little, or not at all. Generalized ordinal logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between the belief that climate change will harm health and independent variables regarding trust in scientists, health recommendations from experts, and demographic characteristics. Female, Black, Hispanic, and college graduate respondents had higher odds and people in the Southern U.S. those aged 35-49, 50-64, and 75years or older had significantly lower odds of believing climate change would harm their health. Those who trust information about cancer from scientists and those that believe health recommendations from experts conflict or change had higher odds of believing climate change would harm health. Our analysis highlights factors that impact climate change and health beliefs, which may provide targets for tailoring public health messages to address this issue.}, }
@article {pmid38807083, year = {2024}, author = {Wesselkamp, M and Roberts, DR and Dormann, CF}, title = {Identifying potential provenances for climate-change adaptation using spatially variable coefficient models.}, journal = {BMC ecology and evolution}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {70}, pmid = {38807083}, issn = {2730-7182}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Pseudotsuga/genetics ; Ecotype ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Models, Biological ; North America ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Selection of climate-change adapted ecotypes of commercially valuable species to date relies on DNA-assisted screening followed by growth trials. For trees, such trials can take decades, hence any approach that supports focussing on a likely set of candidates may save time and money. We use a non-stationary statistical analysis with spatially varying coefficients to identify ecotypes that indicate first regions of similarly adapted varieties of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) in North America. For over 70,000 plot-level presence-absences, spatial differences in the survival response to climatic conditions are identified.<br><br>RESULTS: The spatially-variable coefficient model fits the data substantially better than a stationary, i.e. constant-effect analysis (as measured by AIC to account for differences in model complexity). Also, clustering the model terms identifies several potential ecotypes that could not be derived from clustering climatic conditions itself. Comparing these six identified ecotypes to known genetically diverging regions shows some congruence, as well as some mismatches. However, comparing ecotypes among each other, we find clear differences in their climate niches.<br><br>CONCLUSION: While our approach is data-demanding and computationally expensive, with the increasing availability of data on species distributions this may be a useful first screening step during the search for climate-change adapted varieties. With our unsupervised learning approach being explorative, finely resolved genotypic data would be helpful to improve its quantitative validation.}, }
@article {pmid38806523, year = {2024}, author = {Lu, L and Johnson, M and Zhu, F and Xu, Y and Ruan, T and Chan, FKS}, title = {Harnessing the runoff reduction potential of urban bioswales as an adaptation response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {12207}, pmid = {38806523}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2021YFE0193100//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 2019YFC1510400//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; CKCEST-2022-1-41//Construction Project of China Knowledge Centre for Engineering Sciences and Technology/ ; NSFC41850410497//National Science Foundation Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {Nature-based solutions (NbS), including China's Sponge City Program (SCP), can address the challenges urban communities face due to surface runoff and flooding. The current capacity of SCP facilities in urban environments falls short of meeting the demands placed on communities by climate change. Bioswales are a form of SCP facility that plays an important role in reducing surface runoff by promoting infiltration. This study assesses the potential of SCP facilities to reduce runoff in urban communities under climate change using the storm water management model. The study site in Ningbo, China, was used to evaluate the potential role of bioswales in reducing runoff risks from climate change. We found that bioswales were most effective in scenarios when rainfall peaks occurred early and were less effective in right-skewed rainfall events. The overall performance of SCP facilities was similar across all climate scenarios. To maintain the current protection level of SCP facilities, bioswales would need to cover at least 4% of the catchment area. These findings from Ningbo provide a useful method for assessing NbS in other regions and indicative values for the increase in the bioswale coverage needed to adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38804095, year = {2024}, author = {Kharouba, HM}, title = {Shifting the paradigm: The role of introduced plants in the resiliency of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {e17319}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17319}, pmid = {38804095}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Insecta/physiology ; *Introduced Species ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Current ecological communities are in a constant state of flux from climate change and from species introductions. Recent discussion has focused on the positive roles introduced species can play in ecological communities and on the importance of conserving resilient ecosystems, but not how these two ideas intersect. There has been insufficient work to define the attributes needed to support ecosystem resilience to climate change in modern communities. Here, I argue that non-invasive, introduced plant species could play an important role in supporting the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Using examples from multiple taxonomic groups and ecosystems, I discuss how introduced plants can contribute to ecosystem resilience via their roles in plant and insect communities, as well as their associated ecosystem functions. I highlight the current and potential contributions of introduced plants and where there are critical knowledge gaps. Determining when and how introduced plants are contributing to the resilience of ecosystems to climate change will contribute to effective conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid38803889, year = {2024}, author = {Reta, BG and Hatiye, SD and Finsa, MM}, title = {Crop water requirement and irrigation scheduling under climate change scenario, and optimal cropland allocation in lower kulfo catchment.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {e31332}, pmid = {38803889}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Crop water requirement and irrigation scheduling in Lower Kulfo Catchment of southern Ethiopia have not assessed under climate change scenarios, and the allocation of crop land also not optimal that signifcantly challenges to crop productivity.Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate the effects of climate change on future crop water requirements, and irrigation scheduling, and to allocate cropland optimally. Bias of projected precipitation and temperature were corrected by utilizing Climate Model data with the hydrologic modeling tool (CMhyd). Alongside, crop water requirements and irrigation scheduling were assessed using Crop Water Assessment Tool. After estimating crop water requirement, crop land were allocated optimally using General Algebraic Modeling System programming with non-negativity constraints (scenario 1), and non-negativity constraints based on farmers adaptation (scenario 2). Average reference evapotranspiration from 2030 to 2050 and 2060 to 2080 was increased by 11.9 %, and 16.2 %, respectively compared with the reference period (2010-2022). The total seasonal crop water requirements were 4,529 mm, 4866.7 mm, and 5272.2 mm under 2010 to 2022, 2030 to 2050, and 2060 to 2080 climate change scenarios, respectively. The meean irrigation interval in 2010-2022, 2030 to 2050, and 2060 to 2080 climate change scenarios were 8 days, 7 days, and 5 days, respectively. This irrigation interval was decreased by 14 % (2030-2050), and 34 % (2060-2080) compared with the reference period. In 2030 to 2050 and 2026 to 2080 climate change scenarios, the required irrigation water at the inlet of main canal increased by 6.8 %, and 18 %, respectively. The optimal allocated area for tomato (60.4 %), maize (20.8 %), and watermelon (18.8 %) in scenario 1 with net benefit of 1.47*108 Ethiopian Birr. The allocated areas in scenario 2 were (48 %) for maize, (31.6 %) for tomato, and (20.4 %) for watermelon with 1.34*10[8] Ethiopian Birr net benefit it was reduced by 19.1 % compared with the net benefit in scenario 1. Fruit crops alone may not suffice for local food needs and to address this, small farmers should grow maize, tomato, and watermelon. This research aids policymakers in encouraging climate-resilient agriculture and improving small-scale farmers' awareness through conducting workshops and training.}, }
@article {pmid38803808, year = {2024}, author = {Katapally, TR and Bhawra, J}, title = {Inverting social innovation to transform health system responses to climate change adaptation and mitigation in the global south.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {1333163}, pmid = {38803808}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Global Health ; Delivery of Health Care ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Systems thinking is aimed at understanding and solving complex problems that cut across sectors, an approach that requires accurate, timely, and multisectoral data. Citizen-driven big data can advance systems thinking, considering the widespread use of digital devices. Using digital platforms, data from these devices can transform health systems to predict and prevent global health crises and respond rapidly to emerging crises by providing citizens with real-time support. For example, citizens can obtain real-time support to help with public health risks via a digital app, which can predict evolving risks. These big data can be aggregated and visualized on digital dashboards, which can provide decision-makers with advanced data analytics to facilitate jurisdiction-level rapid responses to evolving climate change impacts (e.g., direct public health crisis communication). In the context of climate change, digital platforms can strengthen rapid responses by integrating information across systems (e.g., food, health, and social services) via citizen big data. More importantly, these big data can be used for rapid decision-making,a paradigm-changing approach that can invert social innovation, which we define as co-conceptualizing societal solutions with vulnerable communities to improve economic development with a focus on community wellbeing. However, to foster equitable and inclusive digital partnerships that invert social innovation, it is critical to avoid top-down approaches that sometimes result when researchers in the Global North and South collaborate. Equitable Global South-North partnerships can be built by combining digital citizen science and community-based participatory research to ethically leverage citizen-driven big data for rapid responses across international jurisdictions.}, }
@article {pmid38801300, year = {2024}, author = {Ittefaq, M}, title = {Climate Communication, Public Health, and Social Media: Examining the Role of Health Agencies in Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health.}, journal = {Journal of health communication}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1080/10810730.2024.2360021}, pmid = {38801300}, issn = {1087-0415}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on human health are a critical public health concern, with previous studies highlighting its clear effects on well-being. Understanding how state and territorial health agencies (STHAs) are addressing these emerging risks is important. This study conducted 26 in-depth interviews across the U.S. to explore the perceptions and communication strategies of STHA officials regarding climate change's impact on human health. Additionally, the study sought to identify the primary challenges faced by these officials to effectively communicate the impacts. Thematic analysis of the data revealed three major themes: community building and coalitions, climate denialism on social media, and misinformation about climate change and its effects on human health. These findings offer valuable insights for climate change and public health communication. The importance of the STHAs' development of technical and informational capacity to effectively communicate climate-related risks and threats is emphasized.}, }
@article {pmid38800647, year = {2024}, author = {Hartinger, SM and Palmeiro-Silva, YK and Llerena-Cayo, C and Blanco-Villafuerte, L and Escobar, LE and Diaz, A and Sarmiento, JH and Lescano, AG and Melo, O and Rojas-Rueda, D and Takahashi, B and Callaghan, M and Chesini, F and Dasgupta, S and Posse, CG and Gouveia, N and Martins de Carvalho, A and Miranda-Chacón, Z and Mohajeri, N and Pantoja, C and Robinson, EJZ and Salas, MF and Santiago, R and Sauma, E and Santos-Vega, M and Scamman, D and Sergeeva, M and Souza de Camargo, T and Sorensen, C and Umaña, JD and Yglesias-González, M and Walawender, M and Buss, D and Romanello, M}, title = {The 2023 Latin America report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for health-centred climate-resilient development.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {33}, number = {}, pages = {100746}, pmid = {38800647}, issn = {2667-193X}, abstract = {In 2023, a series of climatological and political events unfolded, partly driving forward the global climate and health agenda while simultaneously exposing important disparities and vulnerabilities to climate-related events. On the policy front, a significant step forward was marked by the inaugural Health Day at COP28, acknowledging the profound impacts of climate change on health. However, the first-ever Global Stocktake showed an important gap between the current progress and the targets outlined in the Paris Agreement, underscoring the urgent need for further and decisive action. From a Latin American perspective, some questions arise: How do we achieve the change that is needed? How to address the vulnerabilities to climate change in a region with long-standing social inequities? How do we promote intersectoral collaboration to face a complex problem such as climate change? The debate is still ongoing, and in many instances, it is just starting. The renamed regional centre Lancet Countdown Latin America (previously named Lancet Countdown South America) expanded its geographical scope adding Mexico and five Central American countries: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Panama, as a response to the need for stronger collaboration in a region with significant social disparities, including research capacities and funding. The centre is an independent and multidisciplinary collaboration that tracks the links between health and climate change in Latin America, following the global Lancet Countdown's methodologies and five domains. The Lancet Countdown Latin America work hinges on the commitment of 23 regional academic institutions, United Nations agencies, and 34 researchers who generously contribute their time and expertise. Building from the first report, the 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown Latin America, presents 34 indicators that track the relationship between health and climate change up to 2022, aiming at providing evidence to public decision-making with the purpose of improving the health and wellbeing of Latin American populations and reducing social inequities through climate actions focusing on health. This report shows that Latin American populations continue to observe a growing exposure to changing climatic conditions. A warming trend has been observed across all countries in Latin America, with severe direct impacts. In 2022, people were exposed to ambient temperatures, on average, 0.38 °C higher than in 1986-2005, with Paraguay experiencing the highest anomaly (+1.9 °C), followed by Argentina (+1.2 °C) and Uruguay (+0.9 °C) (indicator 1.1.1). In 2013-2022, infants were exposed to 248% more heatwave days and people over 65 years old were exposed to 271% more heatwave days than in 1986-2005 (indicator 1.1.2). Also, compared to 1991-2000, in 2013-2022, there were 256 and 189 additional annual hours per person, during which ambient heat posed at least moderate and high risk of heat stress during light outdoor physical activity in Latin America, respectively (indicator 1.1.3). Finally, the region had a 140% increase in heat-related mortality from 2000-2009 to 2013-2022 (indicator 1.1.4). Changes in ecosystems have led to an increased risk of wildfires, exposing individuals to very or extremely high fire danger for more extended periods (indicator 1.2.1). Additionally, the transmission potential for dengue by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes has risen by 54% from 1951-1960 to 2013-2022 (indicator 1.3), which aligns with the recent outbreaks and increasing dengue cases observed across Latin America in recent months. Based on the 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown Latin America, there are three key messages that Latin America needs to further explore and advance for a health-centred climate-resilient development. Latin American countries require intersectoral public policies that simultaneously increase climate resilience, reduce social inequities, improve population health, and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The findings show that adaptation policies in Latin America remain weak, with a pressing need for robust vulnerability and adaptation (V&amp;A) assessments to address climate risks effectively. Unfortunately, such assessments are scarce. Up to 2021, Brazil is the only country that has completed and officially reported a V&amp;A to the 2021 Global Survey conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO). Argentina, Guatemala, and Panama have also conducted them, but they have not been reported (indicator 2.1.1). Similarly, efforts in developing and implementing Health National Adaptation Plans (HNAPs) are varied and limited in scope. Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay are the only countries that have an HNAP (indicator 2.1.2). Moreover, self-reported city-level climate change risk assessments are very limited in the region (indicator 2.1.3). The collaboration between meteorological and health sectors remains insufficient, with only Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Guatemala self-reporting some level of integration (indicator 2.2.1), hindering comprehensive responses to climate-related health risks in the region. Additionally, despite the urgent need for action, there has been minimal progress in increasing urban greenspaces across the region since 2015, with only Colombia, Nicaragua, and Venezuela showing slight improvements (indicator 2.2.2). Compounding these challenges is the decrease in funding for climate change adaptation projects in Latin America, as evidenced by the 16% drop in funds allocated by the Green Climate Fund (GCF) in 2022 compared to 2021. Alarmingly, none of the funds approved in 2022 were directed toward climate change and health projects, highlighting a critical gap in addressing health-related climate risks (indicator 2.2.3). From a vulnerability perspective, the Mosquito Risk Index (MoRI) indicates an overall decrease in severe mosquito-borne disease risk in the region due to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) (indicator 2.3.1). Brazil and Paraguay were the only countries that showed an increase in this indicator. It is worth noting that significant temporal variation within and between countries still persists, suggesting inadequate preparedness for climate-related changes. Overall, population health is not solely determined by the health sector, nor are climate policies a sole responsibility of the environmental sector. More and stronger intersectoral collaboration is needed to pave development pathways that consider solid adaptation to climate change, greater reductions of GHG emissions, and that increase social equity and population health. These policies involve sectors such as finance, transport, energy, housing, health, and agriculture, requiring institutional structures and policy instruments that allow long-term intersectoral collaboration. Latin American countries need to accelerate an energy transition that prioritises people's health and wellbeing, reduces energy poverty and air pollution, and maximises health and economic gains. In Latin America, there is a notable disparity in energy transition, with electricity generation from coal increasing by an average of 2.6% from 1991-2000 to 2011-2020, posing a challenge to efforts aimed at phasing out coal (indicator 3.1.1). However, this percentage increase is conservative as it may not include all the fossil fuels for thermoelectric electricity generation, especially during climate-related events and when hydropower is affected (Panel 4). Yet, renewable energy sources have been growing, increasing by an average of 5.7% during the same period. Access to clean fuels for cooking remains a concern, with 46.3% of the rural population in Central America and 23.3% in South America lacking access to clean fuels in 2022 (indicator 3.1.2). It is crucial to highlight the concerning overreliance on fossil fuels, particularly liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), as a primary cooking fuel. A significant majority of Latin American populations, approximately 74.6%, rely on LPG for cooking. Transitioning to cleaner heating and cooking alternatives could also have a health benefit by reducing household air pollution-related mortality. Fossil fuels continue to dominate road transport energy in Latin America, accounting for 96%, although some South American countries are increasing the use of biofuels (indicator 3.1.3). Premature mortality attributable to fossil-fuel-derived PM2.5 has shown varied trends across countries, increasing by 3.9% from 2005 to 2020 across Latin America, which corresponds to 123.5 premature deaths per million people (indicator 3.2.1). The Latin American countries with the highest premature mortality rate attributable to PM2.5 in 2020 were Chile, Peru, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Paraguay. Of the total premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 in 2020, 19.1% was from transport, 12.3% from households, 11.6% from industry, and 11% from agriculture. From emission and capture of GHG perspective, commodity-driven deforestation and expansion of agricultural land remain major contributors to tree cover loss in the region, accounting for around 80% of the total loss (indicator 3.3). Additionally, animal-based food production in Latin America contributes 85% to agricultural CO2 equivalent emissions, with Argentina, Brazil, Panama, Paraguay, and Uruguay ranking highest in per capita emissions (indicator 3.4.1). From a health perspective, in 2020, approximately 870,000 deaths were associated with imbalanced diets, of which 155,000 (18%) were linked to high intake of red and processed meat and dairy products (indicator 3.4.2). Energy transition in Latin America is still in its infancy, and as a result, millions of people are currently exposed to dangerous levels of air pollution and energy poverty (i.e., lack of access to essential energy sources or services). As shown in this report, the levels of air pollution, outdoors and indoors, are a significant problem in the whole region, with marked disparities between urban and rural areas. In 2022, Peru, Chile, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, El Salvador, Brazil, Uruguay, Honduras, Panama, and Nicaragua were in the top 100 most polluted countries globally. Transitioning to cleaner sources of energy, phasing out fossil fuels, and promoting better energy efficiency in the industrial and housing sectors are not only climate mitigation measures but also huge health and economic opportunities for more prosperous and healthy societies. Latin American countries need to increase climate finance through permanent fiscal commitments and multilateral development banks to pave climate-resilient development pathways. Climate change poses significant economic costs, with investments in mitigation and adaptation measures progressing slowly. In 2022, economic losses due to weather-related extreme events in Latin America were US$15.6 billion -an amount mainly driven by floods and landslides in Brazil-representing 0.28% of Latin America's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (indicator 4.1.1). In contrast to high-income countries, most of these losses lack insurance coverage, imposing a substantial financial strain on affected families and governments. Heat-related mortality among individuals aged 65 and older in Latin America reached alarming levels, with losses exceeding the equivalent of the average income of 451,000 people annually (indicator 4.1.2). Moreover, the total potential income loss due to heat-related labour capacity reduction amounted to 1.34% of regional GDP, disproportionately affecting the agriculture and construction sectors (indicator 4.1.3). Additionally, the economic toll of premature mortality from air pollution was substantial, equivalent to a significant portion of regional GDP (0.61%) (indicator 4.1.4). On a positive note, clean energy investments in the region increased in 2022, surpassing fossil fuel investments. However, in 2020, all countries reviewed continued to offer net-negative carbon prices, revealing fossil fuel subsidies totalling US$23 billion. Venezuela had the highest net subsidies relative to current health expenditure (123%), followed by Argentina (10.5%), Bolivia (10.3%), Ecuador (8.3%), and Chile (5.6%) (indicator 4.2.1). Fossil fuel-based energy is today more expensive than renewable energy. Fossil fuel burning drives climate change and damages the environment on which people depend, and air pollution derived from the burning of fossil fuels causes seven million premature deaths each year worldwide, along with a substantial burden of disease. Transitioning to sustainable, zero-emission energy sources, fostering healthier food systems, and expediting adaptation efforts promise not only environmental benefits but also significant economic gains. However, to implement mitigation and adaptation policies that also improve social wellbeing and prosperity, stronger and solid financial systems are needed. Climate finance in Latin American countries is scarce and strongly depends on political cycles, which threatens adequate responses to the current and future challenges. Progress on the climate agenda is lagging behind the urgent pace required. While engagement with the intersection of health and climate change is increasing, government involvement remains inadequate. Newspaper coverage of health and climate change has been on the rise, peaking in 2022, yet the proportion of climate change articles discussing health has declined over time (indicator 5.1). Although there has been significant growth in the number of scientific papers focusing on Latin America, it still represents less than 4% of global publications on the subject (indicator 5.3). And, while health was mentioned by most Latin American countries at the UN General Debate in 2022, only a few addressed the intersection of health and climate change, indicating a lack of awareness at the governmental level (indicator 5.4). The 2023 Lancet Countdown Latin America report underscores the cascading and compounding health impacts of anthropogenic climate change, marked by increased exposure to heatwaves, wildfires, and vector-borne diseases. Specifically, for Latin America, the report emphasises three critical messages: the urgent action to implement intersectoral public policies that enhance climate resilience across the region; the pressing need to prioritise an energy transition that focuses on health co-benefits and wellbeing, and lastly, that need for increasing climate finance by committing to sustained fiscal efforts and engaging with multilateral development banks. By understanding the problems, addressing the gaps, and taking decisive action, Latin America can navigate the challenges of climate change, fostering a more sustainable and resilient future for its population. Spanish and Portuguese translated versions of this Summary can be found in Appendix B and C, respectively. The full translated report in Spanish is available in Appendix D.}, }
@article {pmid37874070, year = {2023}, author = {Dietrichs, ES}, title = {[How anthropegenic climate change affects health].}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {143}, number = {15}, pages = {}, doi = {10.4045/tidsskr.23.0357}, pmid = {37874070}, issn = {0807-7096}, }
@article {pmid37589361, year = {2023}, author = {Aasheim, ET}, title = {[Course on climate change for medical students].}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {143}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.4045/tidsskr.23.0375}, pmid = {37589361}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Students, Medical ; Curriculum ; }, }
@article {pmid38800003, year = {2024}, author = {Vaidya, R and Bhatti, VK and Bobdey, S}, title = {Climate change and health: An impending crisis and a public health challenge.}, journal = {Medical journal, Armed Forces India}, volume = {80}, number = {3}, pages = {249-251}, pmid = {38800003}, issn = {0377-1237}, }
@article {pmid38798521, year = {2024}, author = {Situma, S and Nyakarahuka, L and Omondi, E and Mureithi, M and Mweu, M and Muturi, M and Mwatondo, A and Dawa, J and Konongoi, L and Khamadi, S and Clancey, E and Lofgren, E and Osoro, E and Ngere, I and Breiman, RF and Bakamutumaho, B and Muruta, A and Gachohi, J and Oyola, SO and Njenga, MK and Singh, D}, title = {Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.}, journal = {medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1101/2024.05.17.24307534}, pmid = {38798521}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterizing recent RVF disease events in East Africa.<br><br>METHODS: Data on 100 disease events (2008 - 2022) from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modeled against possible geo-ecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change, and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980-2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and 3 livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geo-ecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1oC increase in temperature and 1-unit increase in NDVI, 1-3 months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios (IRR) of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1,1.2) and 9.88 (95% CI 0.85, 119.52), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12 to 0.3oC/decade, P<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (P<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively.<br><br>CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics.<br><br>KEY QUESTIONS: What is already known on this topic?: Rift Valley fever is recognized for its association with heavy rainfall, flooding, and El Ni&#xf1;o rains in the East African region. A growing body of recent studies has highlighted a shifting landscape of the disease, marked by an expanding geographic range and an increasing number of small RVF clusters.What this study adds: This study challenges previous beliefs about RVF, revealing that it predominantly occurs in small clusters rather than large outbreaks, and its association with El Ni&#xf1;o is not as pronounced as previously thought. Over 65% of these clusters are concentrated in the highlands of Kenya and Uganda, with 35% occurring in previously unaffected regions, accompanied by an increase in temperature and total rainfall between 1980 and 2022, along with a rise in the annual number of rainy days. Notably, the observed rainfall increases are particularly significant during the short-rains season (October-December), aligning with a secondary peak in RVF incidence. In contrast, the lowlands of East Africa, where typical RVF epidemics occur, display smaller and more varied trends in annual rainfall.How this study might affect research, practice, or policy: The worldwide consequence of the expanding RVF cluster is the broader dispersion of the virus, leading to the establishment of new regions with virus endemicity. This escalation heightens the risk of more extensive extreme-weather-associated RVF epidemics in the future. Global public health institutions must persist in developing preparedness and response strategies for such scenarios. This involves the creation and approval of human RVF vaccines and therapeutics, coupled with a rapid distribution plan through regional banks.}, }
@article {pmid38797839, year = {2024}, author = {Jin, J and Zhao, W and Chen, S and Gu, C and Chen, Z and Liu, Z and Liao, W and Fan, Q}, title = {Which contributes more to the relict flora distribution pattern in East Asia, geographical processes or climate change? New evidence from the phylogeography of Rehderodendron kwangtungense.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {459}, pmid = {38797839}, issn = {1471-2229}, support = {32300172//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2021A1515110425//Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province/ ; 2020F36//Research on Coevolution of Vegetation and Geological Environment of Shenzhen Dapeng Peninsula Geopark/ ; 2020F36//Research on Coevolution of Vegetation and Geological Environment of Shenzhen Dapeng Peninsula Geopark/ ; 2021GJGY001//Guangdong Special Fund for Natural Resources Management and Ecological Forestry Construction/ ; }, mesh = {*Phylogeography ; *Climate Change ; *Genetic Variation ; Asia, Eastern ; Plant Dispersal ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Relict species are important for enhancing the understanding of modern biogeographic distribution patterns. Although both geological and climatic changes since the Cenozoic have affected the relict flora in East Asia, the contributions of geographical processes remain unclear. In this study, we employed restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) and shallow genome sequencing data, in conjunction with ecological niche modeling (ENM), to investigate the spatial genetic patterns and population differentiation history of the relict species Rehderodendron kwangtungense Chun.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 138 individuals from 16 populations were collected, largely covering the natural distribution of R. kwangtungense. The genetic diversity within the R. kwangtungense populations was extremely low (HO = 0.048&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;0.019; HE = 0.033&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;0.011). Mantel tests revealed isolation-by-distance pattern (R[2]&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.38, P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001), and AMOVA analysis showed that the genetic variation of R. kwangtungense occurs mainly between populations (86.88%, K&#x2009;=&#x2009;7). Between 23 and 21 Ma, R. kwangtungense underwent a period of rapid differentiation that coincided with the rise of the Himalayas and the establishment of the East Asian monsoon. According to ENM and population demographic history, the suitable area and effective population size of R. kwangtungense decreased sharply during the glacial period and expanded after the last glacial maximum (LGM).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our study shows that the distribution pattern of southern China mountain relict flora may have developed during the panplain stage between the middle Oligocene and the early Miocene. Then, the flora later fragmented under the force of orogenesis, including intermittent uplift during the Cenozoic Himalayan orogeny and the formation of abundant rainfall associated with the East Asian monsoon. The findings emphasized the predominant role of geographical processes in shaping relict plant distribution patterns.}, }
@article {pmid38796025, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, Z and Wang, T and Zhang, X and Wang, J and Yang, Y and Sun, Y and Guo, X and Wu, Q and Nepovimova, E and Watson, AE and Kuca, K}, title = {Biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change: Facing challenges and management strategies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173377}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173377}, pmid = {38796025}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Biodiversity conservation amidst the uncertainty of climate change presents unique challenges that necessitate precise management strategies. The study reported here was aimed at refining understanding of these challenges and to propose specific, actionable management strategies. Employing a quantitative literature analysis, we meticulously examined 1268 research articles from the Web of Science database between 2005 and 2023. Through Cite Spaces and VOS viewer software, we conducted a bibliometric analysis and thematic synthesis to pinpoint emerging trends, key themes, and the geographical distribution of research efforts. Our methodology involved identifying patterns within the data, such as frequency of keywords, co-authorship networks, and citation analysis, to discern the primary focus areas within the field. This approach allowed us to distinguish between research concentration areas, specifically highlighting a predominant interest in Environmental Sciences Ecology (67.59 %) and Biodiversity Conservation (22.63 %). The identification of adaptive management practices and ecosystem services maintenance are central themes in the research from 2005 to 2023. Moreover, challenges such as understanding phenological shifts, invasive species dynamics, and anthropogenic pressures critically impact biodiversity conservation efforts. Our findings underscore the urgent need for precise, data-driven decision-making processes in the face of these challenges. Addressing the gaps identified, our study proposes targeted solutions, including the establishment of germplasm banks for at-risk species, the development of advanced genomic and microclimate models, and scenario analysis to predict and mitigate future conservation challenges. These strategies are aimed at enhancing the resilience of biodiversity against the backdrop of climate change through integrated, evidence-based approaches. By leveraging the compiled and analyzed data, this study offers a foundational framework for future research and practical action in biodiversity conservation strategies, demonstrating a path forward through detailed analysis and specified solutions.}, }
@article {pmid38796018, year = {2024}, author = {Cai, Y and Irie, H and Damiani, A and Itahashi, S and Takemura, T and Khatri, P}, title = {Detectability of the potential climate change effect on transboundary air pollution pathways in the downwind area of China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173490}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173490}, pmid = {38796018}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Long-term aerosol optical depth (AOD) datasets focused on the Pacific Ocean in the downwind area of China over a 19-year period from 2003 to 2021 were derived from satellite observations, reanalysis datasets, and numerical simulations. Considering the significant year-to-year changes in the amounts of aerosols transported from China to the Pacific Ocean during this period, we proposed a metric named RAOD. This is defined as the AOD over the ocean relative to that near the eastern coast of China within the same latitude band (25-30°N). RAOD was identified as a valuable metric for quantifying the long-term changes in transboundary air pollution pathways. Our analysis revealed a clear exponential decrease in RAOD values from China toward the Pacific Ocean; this was consistent with the prevailing meteorological conditions observed over the 19-year period. However, the possible long-term changes in RAOD due to climate change were found to be insignificant and were overshadowed by much larger year-to-year variations in the meteorological field. Additionally, significant seasonal variations in the absolute slope of the linear regression between RAOD and longitude were observed, and there correlated with wind patterns in the lower troposphere. Elevated slope values in the spring and winter suggested a west-to-east aerosol transport facilitated by strong winds, whereas the lower slope values in summer and autumn indicated a northward aerosol movement under weaker winds. In recent years, aerosols have become less likely to be transported far eastward from the coast of China. Based on these findings, to enhance the detectability of the climate change impacts on meteorological field affecting transboundary air pollution pathways, the RAOD metric derived using a continued long-term satellite observation of aerosols is proposed.}, }
@article {pmid38795135, year = {2024}, author = {Meng, R and Du, X and Ge, K and Wu, C and Zhang, Z and Liang, X and Yang, J and Zhang, H}, title = {Does climate change increase the risk of marine toxins? Insights from changing seawater conditions.}, journal = {Archives of toxicology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38795135}, issn = {1432-0738}, support = {82273594//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 82073512//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Marine toxins produced by marine organisms threaten human health and impose a heavy public health burden on coastal countries. Lately, there has been an emergence of marine toxins in regions that were previously unaffected, and it is believed that climate change may be a significant factor. This paper systematically summarizes the impact of climate change on the risk of marine toxins in terms of changes in seawater conditions. From our findings, climate change can cause ocean warming, acidification, stratification, and sea-level rise. These climatic events can alter the surface temperature, salinity, pH, and nutrient conditions of seawater, which may promote the growth of various algae and bacteria, facilitating the production of marine toxins. On the other hand, climate change may expand the living ranges of marine organisms (such as algae, bacteria, and fish), thereby exacerbating the production and spread of marine toxins. In addition, the sources, distribution, and toxicity of ciguatoxin, tetrodotoxin, cyclic imines, and microcystin were described to improve public awareness of these emerging marine toxins. Looking ahead, developing interdisciplinary cooperation, strengthening monitoring of emerging marine toxins, and exploring more novel approaches are essential to better address the risks of marine toxins posed by climate change. Altogether, the interrelationships between climate, marine ecology, and marine toxins were analyzed in this study, providing a theoretical basis for preventing and managing future health risks from marine toxins.}, }
@article {pmid38791670, year = {2024}, author = {Khan, TU and Ullah, I and Hu, Y and Liang, J and Ahmad, S and Omifolaji, JK and Hu, H}, title = {Assessment of Suitable Habitat of the Demoiselle Crane (Anthropoides virgo) in the Wake of Climate Change: A Study of Its Wintering Refugees in Pakistan.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {38791670}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {no. 31901109//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2022GDASZH-2022010105//GDAS Special Project of Science and Technology Development/ ; no. 2021M700891//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; ZL202203601//Survey of Wildlife Resources in Key Areas of Tibet/ ; }, abstract = {The inevitable impacts of climate change have reverberated across ecosystems and caused substantial global biodiversity loss. Climate-induced habitat loss has contributed to range shifts at both species and community levels. Given the importance of identifying suitable habitats for at-risk species, it is imperative to assess potential current and future distributions, and to understand influential environmental factors. Like many species, the Demoiselle crane is not immune to climatic pressures. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces in Pakistan are known wintering grounds for this species. Given that Pakistan is among the top five countries facing devastating effects of climate change, this study sought to conduct species distribution modeling under climate change using data collected during 4 years of field surveys. We developed a Maximum Entropy distribution model to predict the current and projected future distribution of the species across the study area. Future habitat projections for 2050 and 2070 were carried out using two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) under three global circulation models, including HADGEM2-AO, BCC-CSM1-1, and CCSM4. The most influential factors shaping Demoiselle Crane habitat suitability included the temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, terrain ruggedness index, and human population density, all of which contributed significantly to the suitability (81.3%). The model identified 35% of the study area as moderately suitable (134,068 km[2]) and highly suitable (27,911 km[2]) habitat for the species under current climatic conditions. Under changing climate scenarios, our model predicted a major loss of the species' current suitable habitat, with shrinkage and shift towards western-central areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan boarder. The RCP 8.5, which is the extreme climate change scenario, portrays particularly severe consequences, with habitat losses reaching 65% in 2050 and 85% in 2070. This comprehensive study provides useful insights into the Demoiselle Crane habitat's current and future dynamics in Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid38790027, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, HR and Liu, T and Gao, X and Wang, HB and Xiao, JH}, title = {Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {38}, pmid = {38790027}, issn = {2049-9957}, support = {31802217//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *West Nile virus/physiology ; *West Nile Fever/transmission/epidemiology ; Humans ; Animals ; Adaptation, Physiological ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed flavivirus causing encephalitis globally, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The changing climate is poised to reshape the landscape of various infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne ones like WNV. Understanding the anticipated geographical and range shifts in disease transmission due to climate change, alongside effective adaptation strategies, is critical for mitigating future public health impacts. This scoping review aims to consolidate evidence on the impact of climate change on WNV and to identify a spectrum of applicable adaptation strategies.<br><br>MAIN BODY: We systematically analyzed research articles from PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and EBSCOhost. Our criteria included English-language research articles published between 2007 and 2023, focusing on the impacts of climate change on WNV and related adaptation strategies. We extracted data concerning study objectives, populations, geographical focus, and specific findings. Literature was categorized into two primary themes: 1) climate-WNV associations, and 2) climate change impacts on WNV transmission, providing a clear understanding. Out of 2168 articles reviewed, 120 met our criteria. Most evidence originated from North America (59.2%) and Europe (28.3%), with a primary focus on human cases (31.7%). Studies on climate-WNV correlations (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;83) highlighted temperature (67.5%) as a pivotal climate factor. In the analysis of climate change impacts on WNV (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;37), most evidence suggested that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, with the extent of the impact depending on local and regional conditions. Although few studies directly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies for climate-induced disease transmission, the proposed strategies (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;49) fell into six categories: 1) surveillance and monitoring (38.8%), 2) predictive modeling (18.4%), 3) cross-disciplinary collaboration (16.3%), 4) environmental management (12.2%), 5) public education (8.2%), and 6) health system readiness (6.1%). Additionally, we developed an accessible online platform to summarize the evidence on climate change impacts on WNV transmission (https://2xzl2o-neaop.shinyapps.io/WNVScopingReview/).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This review reveals that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, but the literature reflects only a small share of the global WNV dynamics. There is an urgent need for adaptive responses to anticipate and respond to the climate-driven spread of WNV. Nevertheless, studies focusing on these adaptation responses are sparse compared to those examining the impacts of climate change. Further research on the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for vector-borne diseases, along with more comprehensive evidence synthesis, is needed to inform effective policy responses tailored to local contexts.}, }
@article {pmid38789413, year = {2024}, author = {Amos, AJ}, title = {Response to Barton et al. confirming that Burke et al. do not show a relationship between climate change and suicide.}, journal = {Australasian psychiatry : bulletin of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {10398562241256801}, doi = {10.1177/10398562241256801}, pmid = {38789413}, issn = {1440-1665}, }
@article {pmid38788989, year = {2024}, author = {Cao, M and Wang, F and Ma, S and Geng, H and Sun, K}, title = {Recent advances on greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands: Mechanism, global warming potential, and environmental drivers.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {355}, number = {}, pages = {124204}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2024.124204}, pmid = {38788989}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wetlands have exacerbated global warming, attracting worldwide attention. However, the research process and development trends in this field remain unknown. Herein, 1865 papers related to wetlands GHG emissions published from January 2000 to December 2023 were selected, and CiteSpace and VOSviewer were used for bibliometric analysis to visually analyze the publications distribution, research authors, organizations and countries, core journal and keywords, and discussed the research progress, trends and hotspots in the fields. Over the past 24 years, the research has gone through three phases: the "embryonic" stage (2000-2006), the accumulation stage (2007-2014), and the acceleration stage (2015-2023). China has played a pivotal role in this domain, publishing the most papers and working closely with the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and Australia. In addition, this study synthesized 311 field observations from 123 publications to analyze the variability in GHG emissions and their driving factors in four different types of natural wetlands. The results suggested that the average carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes in different wetlands were significantly different. River wetlands exhibited the highest GHG fluxes, while marsh wetlands demonstrated greater global warming potential (GWP). The average CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes were 60.41 mg m[-2]·h[-1], 2.52 mg m[-2]·h[-1] and 0.05 mg m[-2]·h[-1], respectively. The GWP of Chinese natural wetlands was estimated as 648.72 Tg·CO2-eq·yr[-1], and CH4 contributed the largest warming effect, accounting for 57.43%. Correlation analysis showed that geographical location, climate factors, and soil conditions collectively regulated GHG emissions from wetlands. The findings provide a new perspective on sustainable wetland management and reducing GHG emissions.}, }
@article {pmid38788417, year = {2024}, author = {Cordiner, R and Wan, K and Hajat, S and Macintyre, HL}, title = {Accounting for adaptation when projecting climate change impacts on health: A review of temperature-related health impacts.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {188}, number = {}, pages = {108761}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2024.108761}, pmid = {38788417}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures can cause harm to human health. Due to global warming, heat-related health effects are likely to increase substantially in future unless populations adapt to living in a warmer world. Adaptation to temperature may occur through physiological acclimatisation, behavioural mechanisms, and planned adaptation. A fundamental step in informing responses to climate change is understanding how adaptation can be appropriately accounted for when estimating future health burdens. Previous studies modelling adaptation have used a variety of methods, and it is often unclear how underlying assumptions of adaptation are made and if they are based on evidence. Consequently, the most appropriate way to quantitatively model adaptation in projections of health impacts is currently unknown. With increasing interest from decisionmakers around implementation of adaptation strategies, it is important to consider the role of adaptation in anticipating future health burdens of climate change. To address this, a literature review using systematic scoping methods was conducted to document the quantitative methods employed by studies projecting future temperature-related health impacts under climate change that also consider adaptation. Approaches employed in studies were coded into methodological categories. Categories were discussed and refined between reviewers during synthesis. Fifty-nine studies were included and grouped into eight methodological categories. Methods of including adaptation in projections have changed over time with more recent studies using a combination of approaches or modelling adaptation based on specific adaptation strategies or socioeconomic conditions. The most common approaches to model adaptation are heat threshold shifts and reductions in the exposure-response slope. Just under 20% of studies were identified as using an intervention-based empirical basis for statistical assumptions. Including adaptation in projections considerably reduced the projected temperature-mortality burden in the future. Researchers should ensure that all future impact assessments include adaptation uncertainty in projections and assumptions are based on empirical evidence.}, }
@article {pmid38786904, year = {2024}, author = {Li, M and Jin, Z and Qi, Y and Zhao, H and Yang, N and Guo, J and Chen, B and Xian, X and Liu, W}, title = {Risk Assessment of Spodoptera exempta against Food Security: Estimating the Potential Global Overlapping Areas of Wheat, Maize, and Rice under Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {38786904}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2021YFD1400100, 2021YFD1400101&#xff0c;2021YFC2600400,//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; grant no. 2022TSYCCX0084//Tian-Shan Talent Program/ ; }, abstract = {Spodoptera exempta, known as the black armyworm, has been extensively documented as an invasive agricultural pest prevalent across various crop planting regions globally. However, the potential geographical distribution and the threat it poses to host crops of remains unknown at present. Therefore, we used an optimized MaxEnt model based on 841 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables to predict the potential suitable areas of S. exempta under current and future climatic conditions, and the overlap with wheat, rice, and maize planting areas was assessed. The optimized model was highly reliable in predicting potential suitable areas for this pest. The results showed that high-risk distribution areas for S. exempta were mainly in developing countries, including Latin America, central South America, central Africa, and southern Asia. Moreover, for the three major global food crops, S. exempta posed the greatest risk to maize planting areas (510.78 × 10[4] km[2]), followed by rice and wheat planting areas. Under future climate scenarios, global warming will limit the distribution of S. exempta. Overall, S. exempta had the strongest effect on global maize production areas and the least on global wheat planting areas. Our study offers a scientific basis for global prevention of S. exempta and protection of agricultural crops.}, }
@article {pmid38786880, year = {2024}, author = {Hayat, U and Shi, J and Wu, Z and Rizwan, M and Haider, MS}, title = {Which SDM Model, CLIMEX vs. MaxEnt, Best Forecasts Aeolesthes sarta Distribution at a Global Scale under Climate Change Scenarios?.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {38786880}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {A precise evaluation of the risk of establishing insect pests is essential for national plant protection organizations. This accuracy is crucial in negotiating international trade agreements for forestry-related commodities, which have the potential to carry pests and lead to unintended introductions in the importing countries. In our study, we employed both mechanistic and correlative niche models to assess and map the global patterns of potential establishment for Aeolesthes sarta under current and future climates. This insect is a significant pest affecting tree species of the genus Populus, Salix, Acer, Malus, Juglans, and other hardwood trees. Notably, it is also categorized as a quarantine pest in countries where it is not currently present. The mechanistic model, CLIMEX, was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, providing a detailed understanding of the environmental factors influencing the species. In contrast, the correlative model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), utilized species occurrences and spatial climatic data, offering insights into the species' distribution based on observed data and environmental conditions. The projected potential distribution from CLIMEX and MaxEnt models aligns well with the currently known distribution of A. sarta. CLIMEX predicts a broader global distribution than MaxEnt, indicating that most central and southern hemispheres are suitable for its distribution, excluding the extreme northern hemisphere, central African countries, and the northern part of Australia. Both models accurately predict the known distribution of A. sarta in the Asian continent, and their projections suggest a slight overall increase in the global distribution range of A. sarta with future changes in climate temperature, majorly concentrating in the central and northern hemispheres. Furthermore, the models anticipate suitable conditions in Europe and North America, where A. sarta currently does not occur but where its preferred host species, Populus alba, is present. The main environmental variables associated with the distribution of A. sarta at a global level were the average annual temperature and precipitation rate. The predictive models developed in this study offer insights into the global risk of A. sarta establishment and can be valuable for monitoring potential pest introductions in different countries. Additionally, policymakers and trade negotiators can utilize these models to make science-based decisions regarding pest management and international trade agreements.}, }
@article {pmid38786684, year = {2024}, author = {Huertas, V and Jiménez, A and Diánez, F and Chelhaoui, R and Santos, M}, title = {Importance of Dark Septate Endophytes in Agriculture in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {38786684}, issn = {2309-608X}, abstract = {Climate change is a notable challenge for agriculture as it affects crop productivity and yield. Increases in droughts, salinity, and soil degradation are some of the major consequences of climate change. The use of microorganisms has emerged as an alternative to mitigate the effects of climate change. Among these microorganisms, dark septate endophytes (DSEs) have garnered increasing attention in recent years. Dark septate endophytes have shown a capacity for mitigating and reducing the harmful effects of climate change in agriculture, such as salinity, drought, and the reduced nutrient availability in the soil. Various studies show that their association with plants helps to reduce the harmful effects of abiotic stresses and increases the nutrient availability, enabling the plants to thrive under adverse conditions. In this study, the effect of DSEs and the underlying mechanisms that help plants to develop a higher tolerance to climate change were reviewed.}, }
@article {pmid38785109, year = {2024}, author = {Conway, F and Portela, A and Filippi, V and Chou, D and Kovats, S}, title = {Climate change, air pollution and maternal and newborn health: An overview of reviews of health outcomes.}, journal = {Journal of global health}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {04128}, pmid = {38785109}, issn = {2047-2986}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Infant, Newborn ; Female ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Pregnancy ; *Infant Health ; *Maternal Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change represents a fundamental threat to human health, with pregnant women and newborns being more susceptible than other populations. In this review, we aimed to describe the current landscape of available epidemiological evidence on key climate risks on maternal and newborn health (MNH).<br><br>METHODS: We sought to identify published systematic and scoping reviews investigating the impact of different climate hazards and air pollution on MNH outcomes. With this in mind, we developed a systematic search strategy based on the concepts of 'climate/air pollution hazards, 'maternal health,' and 'newborn health,' with restrictions to reviews published between 1 January 2010 and 6 February 2023, but without geographical or language restriction. Following full text screening and data extraction, we synthesised the results using narrative synthesis.<br><br>RESULTS: We found 79 reviews investigating the effects of climate hazards on MNH, mainly focussing on outdoor air pollution (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;47, 59%), heat (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;24, 30%), and flood/storm disasters (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;7, 9%). Most were published after 2015 (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;60, 76%). These reviews had consistent findings regarding the positive association of exposure to heat and to air pollution with adverse birth outcomes, particularly preterm birth. We found limited evidence for impacts of climate-related food and water security on MNH and did not identify any reviews on climate-sensitive infectious diseases and MNH.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change could undermine recent improvements in maternal and newborn health. Our review provides an overview of key climate risks to MNH. It could therefore be useful to the MNH community to better understand the MNH needs for each climate hazard and to strengthen discussions on evidence and research gaps and potential actions. Despite the lack of comprehensive evidence for some climate hazards and for many maternal, perinatal, and newborn outcomes, we observed repeated findings of the impact of heat and air pollutants on birth outcomes, particularly preterm birth. It is time for policy dialogue to follow to specifically design climate policy and actions to protect the needs of MNH.}, }
@article {pmid38784538, year = {2024}, author = {Mondal, C and Uddin, MJ}, title = {Assessment of climate change induced rainfall trend and variability with non-parametric and linear approach for Sirajganj district, Bangladesh.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {e31151}, pmid = {38784538}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The monthly and annual trends and variance of rainfall have been studied for five stations in an economically important Bangladeshi district named Sirajganj since 1965 to 2021. Natural disasters have prevalent in Sirajganj which is indispensable to assess. But, several researchers have been normally focused on river bank management and flood risk assessment. However, no extensive research has been conducted on Sirajganj based on non-normally distributed time series meteorological data such as rainfall time series so the current study is very important. In this study, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's methods have been used to determine the statistical significance of a positive or negative trend in rainfall data. Also, cumulative sum charts and bootstrapping, one-way ANOVA, Tukey's range tests, and linear regression have been used to discover the incidence of abrupt changes, compare the significant difference in monthly and annual rainfall data, multiple comparisons amidst mentioned stations to find changes, and to investigate the changeover on dry and rainy days, respectively. The analysis showed a statistically significant decreasing trends in monthly and annual rainfall series. As well, changes from positive to negative direction have been recognized in the February, May, July, September, and annual rainfall time sequence. Besides, ANOVA and Tukey's range tests revealed a statistically substantial difference in all monthly and annual rainfall volume excluding January, March, and June. Additionally, these two tests demonstrated momentous differences in all monthly and annual frequency of rainfall categories excepting January and April. However, Linear regression analysis revealed that the number of dry days gradually reduced at the end of the dry winter, though the number of rainy days decreased during the rainy season. As in, the number of rainy days replaces the number of dry days during the dry season and vice versa during the rainy season. Even though, with very few exceptions, the volume of rainfall decreases throughout the year. The outcomes of this research might helpful for implementing the planning and evaluating hydrological projects on Sirajganj district.}, }
@article {pmid38784398, year = {2024}, author = {Vafeiadou, AM and Geldhof, K and Barhdadi, W and Baetens, JM and De Baets, B and Moens, T and Daly, AJ}, title = {Temperature-driven dynamics: unraveling the impact of climate change on cryptic species interactions within the Litoditis marina complex.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {e17324}, pmid = {38784398}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Temperature ; Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; Nematoda/physiology/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change and the associated increase in sea temperatures are projected to greatly impact marine ecosystems. Temperature variation can influence the interactions between species, leading to cascading effects on the abundance, diversity and composition of communities. Such changes in community structure can have consequences on ecosystem stability, processes and the services it provides. Therefore, it is important to better understand the role of species interactions in the development of communities and how they are influenced by environmental factors like temperature. The coexistence of closely related cryptic species, with significant biological and ecological differences, makes this even more complex. This study investigated the effect of temperature on species growth and both intra- and interspecific interactions of three species within the free-living nematode Litoditis marina complex. To achieve this, closed microcosm experiments were conducted on the L. marina species Pm I, Pm III and Pm IV in monoculture and combined cultures at two temperature treatments of 15 °C and 20 °C. A population model was constructed to elucidate and quantify the effects of intra- and interspecific interactions on nematode populations. The relative competitive abilities of the investigated species were quantified using the Modern Coexistence Theory (MCT) framework. Temperature had strong and disparate effects on the population growth of the distinct L. marina species. This indicates temperature could play an important role in the distribution of these cryptic species. Both competitive and facilitative interactions were observed in the experiments. Temperature affected both the type and the strength of the species interactions, suggesting a change in temperature could impact the coexistence of these closely related species, alter community dynamics and consequently affect ecosystem processes and services.}, }
@article {pmid38783874, year = {2024}, author = {Habibi, P and Heydari, A and Dehghan, H and Moradi, A and Moradi, G}, title = {Climate Change and Occupational Heat Strain Among Women Workers: A Systematic Review.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {4-17}, pmid = {38783874}, issn = {0973-2284}, abstract = {Climate change increases heat stress exposure and occupational heat strain in tropical and subtropical regions with generally hot-humid climate conditions. The present systematic review was conducted to assess the effect of climate change on occupational heat strain among women workers. In this study, three main databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) were searched to find relevant literature on climate change and its effects using subject headings and appropriate MeSh terms. This article has been written according to the PRISMA checklist. A total of 6,176 studies were identified for screening and 13 studies were eligible for data extraction. Scientific evidence reveals that there is an imprecise but positive relationship between climate change and occupational heat strain regarding women workers. Some complications associated with occupational heat strain among women workers include fatigue, discomfort, dehydration, reduced brain function, and loss of concentration. Climate change can lead to an increase in the occurrence of heat-related illnesses and the levels of injury risk. In addition, its adverse health effects on women workers are mentioned. This systematic study identifies key priorities for action to better characterize and understand how occupational heat strain among women workers may be associated with climate change events. Strong evidence indicates that climate change will continue to cause occupational heat strain among women workers. It is essential to implement preventive measures considering multidisciplinary strategies to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on women workers health in hot weather settings. This can limit the health risks and negative effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38783708, year = {2024}, author = {Prina, M and Khan, N and Akhter Khan, S and Caicedo, JC and Peycheva, A and Seo, V and Xue, S and Sadana, R}, title = {Climate change and healthy ageing: An assessment of the impact of climate hazards on older people.}, journal = {Journal of global health}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {04101}, doi = {10.7189/jogh.14.04101}, pmid = {38783708}, issn = {2047-2986}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Healthy Aging ; Aged ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change not only directly impacts older people's longevity but also healthy ageing, which is the process of maintaining physical and mental capacities while optimising functional abilities. The urgency to address both population ageing and climate change necessitates a rethink and assessment of the impact of climate change on older people. This includes identifying what can be done to anticipate, mitigate and adapt to climate change and engage older persons.<br><br>METHODS: A review of climate change and healthy ageing forms the basis of evidence in this report. We developed a comprehensive search to assess current literature, combining terms related to ageing and climate change across four major data sets and assessing articles published up to the end of 2021.<br><br>RESULTS: We summarised the current and future impact of climate change on older people and developed a framework identifying climate change impacts on older persons, recognising social and environmental determinants of healthy ageing. Major hazards and some key exposure pathways include extreme temperatures, wildfire, drought, flooding, storm and sea level rise, air quality, climate-sensitive infectious diseases, food and water insecurities, health and social care system displacement, migration, and relocation. Strategies to address climate change require interventions to improve systems and infrastructure to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience. As a heterogeneous group, older people's perceptions of climate change should be integrated into climate activism. Increasing climate change literacy among older people and enabling them to promote intergenerational dialogue will drive the development and implementation of equitable solutions. Pathways may operate via direct or indirect exposures, requiring longitudinal studies that enable assessment of exposures and outcomes at multiple time points, and analyses of cumulative impacts of hazards across the life course.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The lack of systematic reviews and primary research on the impact of most climate hazards, except for heat, on older people is apparent. Future research should include outcomes beyond mortality and morbidity and assess how older people interact with their environment by focusing on their capacities and optimising abilities for being and doing what they value.}, }
@article {pmid38783513, year = {2024}, author = {Del Lesto, I and Magliano, A and Casini, R and Ermenegildi, A and Rombolà, P and De Liberato, C and Romiti, F}, title = {Ecological niche modelling of Culicoides imicola and future range shifts under climate change scenarios in Italy.}, journal = {Medical and veterinary entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/mve.12730}, pmid = {38783513}, issn = {1365-2915}, abstract = {Culicoides imicola is the main vector of viral diseases of livestock in Europe such as bluetongue (BT), African horse sickness and epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Climatic factors are the main drivers of C. imicola occurrence and its distribution might be subject to rapid shifts due to climate change. Entomological data, collected during BT surveillance, and climatic/environmental variables were used to analyse ecological niche and to model C. imicola distribution and possible future range shifts in Italy. An ensemble technique was used to weigh the performance of machine learning, linear and profile methods. Updated future climate projections from the latest phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to generate future distributions for the next three 20-year periods, according to combinations of general circulation models and shared socioeconomic pathways and considering different climate change scenarios. Results indicated the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO 6) and precipitation of the driest-warmest months (BIO 14) as the main limiting climatic factors. Indeed, BIO 6 and BIO 14 reported the two highest values of variable importance, respectively, 9.16% (confidence interval [CI] = 7.99%-10.32%), and 2.01% (CI = 1.57%-2.44%). Under the worst-case scenario of climate change, C. imicola range is expected to expand northward and shift away from the coasts of central Italy, while in some areas of southern Italy, environmental suitability will decrease. Our results provide predictions of C. imicola distribution according to the most up-to-date future climate projections and should be of great use to surveillance management at regional and national scales.}, }
@article {pmid38783032, year = {2024}, author = {Gumuła-Kawęcka, A and Jaworska-Szulc, B and Jefimow, M}, title = {Climate change impact on groundwater resources in sandbar aquifers in southern Baltic coast.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {11828}, pmid = {38783032}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {AQUIGROW - sustainable aquifer recharge to enhance resilience of groundwater services under increased drought risk//Water4All JTC Call 2022/ ; }, abstract = {Shallow coastal aquifers are vulnerable hydrosystems controlled by many factors, related to climate, seawater-freshwater interactions and human activity. Given on-going climate change, sea level rise and increasing human impact, it is especially true for groundwater resources situated in sandbars. We developed numerical models of unsaturated zone water flow for two sandbars in northern Poland: the Vistula Spit and the Hel Spit using HYDRUS-1D. The simulations were performed for three types of land use: pine forest, grass cover and bare soil, for 2024-2100 based on weather data and sea level rise forecasts for two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The results present prognosis of groundwater recharge, water table level and water content changeability in near-term (2023-2040), mid-term (2041-2060), and long-term period (2081-2100). Expected sea level rise and decreasing hydraulic gradient of the sandbar aquifers will probably cause in-land movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface, leading to significant decrease or complete salinization of groundwater resources. The study shows that holistic monitoring including groundwater level and salinization, sea level rise, and metheorological data (precipitation amount and variability, temperature) is crucial for sustainable management of vulnerable aquifers located in sandbars.}, }
@article {pmid38782916, year = {2024}, author = {Machard, A and Salvati, A and P Tootkaboni, M and Gaur, A and Zou, J and Wang, LL and Baba, F and Ge, H and Bre, F and Bozonnet, E and Corrado, V and Luo, X and Levinson, R and Lee, SH and Hong, T and Salles Olinger, M and Machado, RMES and da Guarda, ELA and Veiga, RK and Lamberts, R and Afshari, A and Ramon, D and Ngoc Dung Ngo, H and Sengupta, A and Breesch, H and Heijmans, N and Deltour, J and Kuborn, X and Sayadi, S and Qian, B and Zhang, C and Rahif, R and Attia, S and Stern, P and Holzer, P}, title = {Typical and extreme weather datasets for studying the resilience of buildings to climate change and heatwaves.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {531}, pmid = {38782916}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {003-695033//Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft (Fraunhofer Organization)/ ; }, abstract = {We present unprecedented datasets of current and future projected weather files for building simulations in 15 major cities distributed across 10 climate zones worldwide. The datasets include ambient air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, direct and diffuse solar irradiance, and wind speed at hourly resolution, which are essential climate elements needed to undertake building simulations. The datasets contain typical and extreme weather years in the EnergyPlus weather file (EPW) format and multiyear projections in comma-separated value (CSV) format for three periods: historical (2001-2020), future mid-term (2041-2060), and future long-term (2081-2100). The datasets were generated from projections of one regional climate model, which were bias-corrected using multiyear observational data for each city. The methodology used makes the datasets among the first to incorporate complex changes in the future climate for the frequency, duration, and magnitude of extreme temperatures. These datasets, created within the IEA EBC Annex 80 "Resilient Cooling for Buildings", are ready to be used for different types of building adaptation and resilience studies to climate change and heatwaves.}, }
@article {pmid38782517, year = {2024}, author = {Guell, C and Saint Ville, A and Anderson, SG and Murphy, MM and Iese, V and Kiran, S and Hickey, GM and Unwin, N}, title = {Small Island Developing States: addressing the intersecting challenges of non-communicable diseases, food insecurity, and climate change.}, journal = {The lancet. Diabetes &amp; endocrinology}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {422-432}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-8587(24)00100-1}, pmid = {38782517}, issn = {2213-8595}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Noncommunicable Diseases/prevention &amp; control/epidemiology ; *Food Insecurity ; *Developing Countries ; Food Supply ; }, abstract = {Small Island Developing States (SIDS) include 37 UN member countries sharing economic, environmental, and social vulnerabilities and intractable health challenges. In over 80% of SIDS, more than one in six adults die prematurely from a non-communicable disease (NCD), with poor diet being a major factor. Complex upstream food system determinants include marginalised local food production and reliance on low nutritional quality food imports. These drivers need to be seen against colonial and post-colonial political-economic legacies as well as the environmental and climate crises that challenge local production systems. A range of policy commitments (eg, the 2023 Bridgetown Declaration on NCDs and Mental Health) highlight these complex interdependencies and call for cross-sectoral food system policies to improve food security, food sovereignty, and nutrition, including integrating measures for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Although addressing these intersecting challenges will also depend on global efforts, the unique approach of SIDS can inform other settings.}, }
@article {pmid38781571, year = {2024}, author = {Etzel, RA and Weimann, E and Homer, C and Arora, NK and Maimela, G and Prats, EV and Banerjee, A}, title = {Climate change impacts on health across the life course.}, journal = {Journal of global health}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {03018}, pmid = {38781571}, issn = {2047-2986}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Global Health ; Health Status ; }, }
@article {pmid38781568, year = {2024}, author = {Proulx, K and Daelmans, B and Baltag, V and Banati, P}, title = {Climate change impacts on child and adolescent health and well-being: A narrative review.}, journal = {Journal of global health}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {04061}, pmid = {38781568}, issn = {2047-2986}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Child ; Adolescent ; *Adolescent Health ; *Child Health ; Mental Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Worldwide, the climate is changing and affecting the health and well-being of children in many ways. In this review, we provided an overview of how climate change-related events may affect child and adolescent health and well-being, including children's mental and physical health, nutrition, safety and security, learning opportunities, and family caregiving and connectedness.<br><br>METHODS: In this narrative review, we highlighted and discussed peer-reviewed evidence from 2012-23, primarily from meta-analyses and systematic reviews. The search strategy used a large and varied number of search terms across three academic databases to identify relevant literature.<br><br>RESULTS: There was consistent evidence across systematic reviews of impact on four themes. Climate-related events are associated with a) increases in posttraumatic stress and other mental health disorders in children and adolescents, b) increases in asthma, respiratory illnesses, diarrheal diseases and vector-borne diseases, c) increases in malnutrition and reduced growth and d) disruptions to responsive caregiving and family functioning, which can be linked to poor caregiver mental health, stress and loss of resources. Evidence of violence against children in climate-related disaster contexts is inconclusive. There is a lack of systematic review evidence on the associations between climate change and children's learning outcomes.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Systematic review evidence consistently points to negative associations between climate change and children's physical and mental health, well-being, and family functioning. Yet, much remains unknown about the causal pathways linking climate-change-related events and mental and physical health, responsive relationships and connectedness, nutrition, and learning in children and adolescents. This evidence is urgently needed so that adverse health and other impacts from climate change can be prevented or minimised through well-timed and appropriate action.}, }
@article {pmid38779934, year = {2024}, author = {Sinclair, BJ and Saruhashi, S and Terblanche, JS}, title = {Integrating water balance mechanisms into predictions of insect responses to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {227}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.247167}, pmid = {38779934}, issn = {1477-9145}, support = {//Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //National Research Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Insecta/physiology ; Dehydration ; Water/metabolism ; Water-Electrolyte Balance/physiology ; Thermotolerance ; }, abstract = {Efficient water balance is key to insect success. However, the hygric environment is changing with climate change; although there are compelling models of thermal vulnerability, water balance is often neglected in predictions. Insects survive desiccating conditions by reducing water loss, increasing their total amount of water (and replenishing it) and increasing their tolerance of dehydration. The physiology underlying these traits is reasonably well understood, as are the sources of variation and phenotypic plasticity. However, water balance and thermal tolerance intersect at high temperatures, such that mortality is sometimes determined by dehydration, rather than heat (especially during long exposures in dry conditions). Furthermore, water balance and thermal tolerance sometimes interact to determine survival. In this Commentary, we propose identifying a threshold where the cause of mortality shifts between dehydration and temperature, and that it should be possible to predict this threshold from trait measurements (and perhaps eventually a priori from physiological or -omic markers).}, }
@article {pmid38779065, year = {2024}, author = {Huang, Q and Liu, H and Li, C and Zhu, X and Yuan, Z and Lai, J and Cao, M and Huang, Z and Yang, Y and Zhuo, S and Lü, Z and Zhang, G}, title = {Predicting the geographical distribution and niche characteristics of Cotoneaster multiflorus based on future climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1360190}, pmid = {38779065}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Arid and semi-arid regions are climate-sensitive areas, which account for about 40% of the world's land surface area. Future environment change will impact the environment of these area, resulting in a sharp expansion of arid and semi-arid regions. Cotoneaster multiflorus is a multi-functional tree species with extreme cold, drought and barren resistance, as well as ornamental and medicinal functions. It was found to be one of the most important tree species for ecological restoration in arid and semi-arid areas. However, bioclimatic factors play an important role in the growth, development and distribution of plants. Therefore, exploring the response pattern and ecological adaptability of C. multiflorus to future climate change is important for the long-term ecological restoration of C. multiflorus in arid and semi-arid areas.<br><br>METHODS: In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of C. multiflorus in China under different climate scenarios based on the MaxEnt 2.0 model, and discussed its adaptability and the major factors affecting its geographical distribution.<br><br>RESULTS: The major factors that explained the geographical distribution of C. multiflorus were Annual precipitation (Bio12), Min air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11). However, C. multiflorus could thrive in environments where Annual precipitation (Bio12) >150 mm, Min air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) > -42.5&#xb0;C, and Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) > -20&#xb0;C, showcasing its characteristics of cold and drought tolerance. Under different future climate scenarios, the total suitable area for C. multiflorus ranged from 411.199&#xd7;10[4] km&#xb2; to 470.191&#xd7;10[4] km&#xb2;, which was 0.8~6.14 percentage points higher than the current total suitable area. Additionally, it would further shift towards higher latitude.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The MaxEnt 2.0 model predicted the potential distribution pattern of C. multiflorus in the context of future climate change, and identified its ecological adaptability and the main climatic factors affecting its distribution. This study provides an important theoretical basis for natural vegetation restoration in arid and semi-arid areas.}, }
@article {pmid38778199, year = {2024}, author = {Wong, C}, title = {Singapore Airlines turbulence: why climate change is making flights rougher.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38778199}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38778031, year = {2024}, author = {Brandt, L and Adorjan, K and Catthoor, K and Chkonia, E and Falkai, P and Fiorillo, A and Gondek, TM and Le Vay, JN and Rojnic, M and Meyer-Lindenberg, A and Heinz, A and Dom, G and Luykx, JJ}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health: Position Paper of the European Psychiatric Association.}, journal = {European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-34}, doi = {10.1192/j.eurpsy.2024.1754}, pmid = {38778031}, issn = {1778-3585}, }
@article {pmid38777055, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, W and Mo, X and Liu, S and Lu, C}, title = {Impacts of climate change on grassland fractional vegetation cover variation on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173320}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173320}, pmid = {38777055}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change has profoundly impacted Tibetan Plateau grasslands, necessitating a comprehensive analysis of the historical and future responses across diverse grassland types, with the integration of an elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) and climatic factors. In this study, the response of the Tibetan Plateau grassland was investigated, with a focus on the fractional vegetation cover (FVC). By employing an enhanced ecohydrological model for the baseline (1985-2014) and future (2031-2070) periods under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, the responses of FVC to climate change were predicted across all grassland types. The alpine steppe exhibited the most rapid growth, with average FVC increases projected to reach 37 ± 7 %-81 ± 15 % for alpine meadow, 82 ± 22 %-185 ± 55 % for alpine steppe, and 50 ± 8 %-95 ± 23 % for temperate grassland by the 2060s. During the baseline, eCO2 primarily caused the FVC increases in alpine meadow and temperate grassland, while warming governed alpine steppe growth. Interannual variability in the FVC of alpine grasslands was temperature-driven, while that of the temperate grasslands was driven by precipitation. An increase in the FVC of the alpine steppe was caused by warming under both low- and high-emissions scenarios. For the alpine meadow and temperate grasslands, precipitation was dominant for FVC changes in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, and eCO2 was dominant in the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These findings provide a vital foundation for grassland management, carbon cycling comprehension, and vegetation feedback estimations on the Tibetan Plateau.}, }
@article {pmid38776900, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, M and Jiang, P and Chase, JM and Liu, X}, title = {Global insect herbivory and its response to climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2024.04.062}, pmid = {38776900}, issn = {1879-0445}, abstract = {Herbivorous insects consume a large proportion of the energy flow in terrestrial ecosystems and play a major role in the dynamics of plant populations and communities. However, high-resolution, quantitative predictions of the global patterns of insect herbivory and their potential underlying drivers remain elusive. Here, we compiled and analyzed a dataset consisting of 9,682 records of the severity of insect herbivory from across natural communities worldwide to quantify its global patterns and environmental determinants. Global mapping revealed strong spatial variation in insect herbivory at the global scale, showing that insect herbivory did not significantly vary with latitude for herbaceous plants but increased with latitude for woody plants. We found that the cation-exchange capacity in soil was a main predictor of levels of herbivory on herbaceous plants, while climate largely determined herbivory on woody plants. We next used well-established scenarios for future climate change to forecast how spatial patterns of insect herbivory may be expected to change with climate change across the world. We project that herbivore pressure will intensify on herbaceous plants worldwide but would likely only increase in certain biomes (e.g., northern coniferous forests) for woody plants. Our assessment provides quantitative evidence of how environmental conditions shape the spatial pattern of insect herbivory, which enables a more accurate prediction of the vulnerabilities of plant communities and ecosystem functions in the Anthropocene.}, }
@article {pmid38776265, year = {2024}, author = {Rasolofoson, RA and Onyango, HO and Awuor, FJ and Aura, CM and Fiorella, KJ}, title = {Climate change: A pointer to increased small-scale fisher drowning deaths.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {e0302397}, pmid = {38776265}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Drowning/mortality/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Male ; Adult ; Risk Factors ; Female ; Middle Aged ; *Fisheries ; Kenya/epidemiology ; Young Adult ; Lakes ; Adolescent ; Weather ; Aged ; Accidents, Occupational/mortality/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Drowning is an overlooked public health concern and drowning risk is dependent on environmental risk factors. The preponderance of drowning deaths occurs in low- and middle-income countries. Small-scale fishers face high occupational risk of drowning. Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of storms, thereby exacerbating fishers' risks and creating a need to examine the contribution of storms to fisher drowning deaths for the development of mitigation strategies. We examined this relationship between weather and fisher drowning deaths in Lake Victoria, which is Africa's largest lake, a site of high fishing pressure, and where climate change is predicted to increase thunderstorms. We conducted a verbal autopsy with people knowledgeable about recent fatal fisher drowning incidents to collect information about the deceased fishers and circumstances surrounding the incidents across 43 landing sites in the Kenyan shore of Lake Victoria. Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders also elucidated community perspectives on drowning risks. Fatal drownings were often attributed to bad weather (41.8%). Other risk factors, such as non-use of life jacket and navigation equipment, co-occurred with bad weather at high rates (69.5% and 67.8%, respectively) to jointly contribute to fatal drowning incidents. Such co-occurrence of risk factors indicates that actions across multiple risk factors can help mitigate the issue. Stakeholder analysis revealed a range of opportunities for improved communication of risks and action to mitigate risks across boat operators and manufacturers, as well as multiple levels of management. Across global small-scale fisheries, limited use of safety equipment and intensive fishing pressure may coincide with increases in extreme weather events, necessitating action to address current and mitigate future drowning risks to small-scale fishers.}, }
@article {pmid38775847, year = {2024}, author = {Maduneme, E}, title = {Some Slice of Climate Anxiety … Is Good: A Cross-Sectional Survey Exploring the Relationship Between College Students Media Exposure and Perceptions About Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of health communication}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-12}, doi = {10.1080/10810730.2024.2354370}, pmid = {38775847}, issn = {1087-0415}, abstract = {Climate change anxiety among young people of college age has become a prevalent topic, with debate on whether climate change anxiety is maladaptive or can motivate climate change action. Using a cross-sectional survey of 440 college students, the study investigated the relationships between college students' climate anxiety, climate change media exposure, efficacy beliefs, and pro-environmental intentions. The findings revealed among other things, that climate anxiety had a significant curvilinear relationship with pro-environmental intentions with moderate anxiety predicting positive intentions and higher levels of anxiety were associated with negative intentions. Media exposure also positively predicted increased climate anxiety. Implications for climate change mitigation are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid38773628, year = {2024}, author = {Trost, K and Ertl, V and König, J and Rosner, R and Comtesse, H}, title = {Correction: climate change-related concerns in psychotherapy: therapists' experiences and views on addressing this topic in therapy.}, journal = {BMC psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {283}, doi = {10.1186/s40359-024-01783-w}, pmid = {38773628}, issn = {2050-7283}, }
@article {pmid38773173, year = {2024}, author = {Hong, J and Lee, M and Kim, Y and Lee, YS and Wee, J and Park, JJ and Lee, WK and Song, Y and Cho, K}, title = {Potential range shift of a long-distance migratory rice pest, Nilaparvata lugens, under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {11531}, pmid = {38773173}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {Climate Change R&amp;D Project for New Climate Regime (RS-2022-KE002294)//Korea Environmental Industry and Technology Institute/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Oryza/parasitology ; *Hemiptera/physiology ; *Animal Migration/physiology ; Australia ; Seasons ; China ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The biogeographical range shift of insect pests is primarily governed by temperature. However, the range shift of seasonal long-distance migratory insects may be very different from that of sedentary insects. Nilaparvata lugens (BPH), a serious rice pest, can only overwinter in tropical-to-subtropical regions, and some populations migrate seasonally to temperate zones with the aid of low-level jet stream air currents. This study utilized the CLIMEX model to project the overwintering area under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, both in 2030s and 2080s. The overwintering boundary is predicted to expand poleward and new overwintering areas are predicted in the mid-latitude regions of central-to-eastern China and mid-to-southern Australia. With climate change, the habitable areas remained similar, but suitability decreased substantially, especially in the near-equatorial regions, owing to increasing heat stress. The range shift is similar between RCP2.6-2030s, RCP2.6-2080s, and RCP8.5-2030s, but extreme changes are projected under RCP8.5-2080s with marginal areas increasing from 27.2 to 38.8% and very favorable areas dropping from 27.5 to 3.6% compared to the current climate. These findings indicate that climate change will drive range shifts in BPH and alter regional risks differently. Therefore, international monitoring programs are needed to effectively manage these emerging challenges.}, }
@article {pmid38772593, year = {2024}, author = {Wright, CY and Jaca, A and Kapwata, T and Naidoo, N and Awokola, B and Bainomugisha, E and Berhane, KT and Blesic, S and Kehbila, A and Naidoo, R and Nemukula, B and Nyarko, BK and Okekunle, AP and Oni, T and Quansah, R and Thiam, S and Zakari, IS and Beyene, N}, title = {Identifying globally relevant learnings from Africa's challenges and solutions to climate change and air pollution-related health impacts: a data science scoping review protocol.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e076941}, doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2023-076941}, pmid = {38772593}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Humans ; Africa ; *Public Health ; Research Design ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Leveraging data science could significantly advance the understanding of the health impacts of climate change and air pollution to meet health systems' needs and improve public health in Africa. This scoping review will aim to identify and synthesise evidence on the use of data science as an intervention to address climate change and air pollution-related health challenges in Africa.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The search strategy will be developed, and the search will be conducted in the Web of Science, Scopus, CAB Abstracts, MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases. We will also search the reference lists of eligible articles for additional records. We will screen titles, technical reports, abstracts and full texts and select studies reporting the use of data science in relation to the health effects and interventions associated with climate change and air pollution in Africa.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: There are no formal ethics requirements as we are not collecting primary data. Results, once published, will be disseminated via conferences and shared with policy-makers and public health, air pollution and climate change key stakeholders in Africa.}, }
@article {pmid38771748, year = {2024}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Dinis, MAP and Lange Salvia, A and Sierra, J and Vasconcelos, H and Henderson-Wilson, C and Diatta, S and Kumar, TVL and Meirelles, MG and Carvalho, F}, title = {Assessing climate change and health provisions among staff in higher education institutions: A preliminary investigation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {e0304019}, pmid = {38771748}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Universities ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change can have direct and indirect effects on human health. Direct effects can include an increase in extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and floods, as well as an increase in the spread of vector-borne and infectious diseases, which may lead to a set of health problems and diseases. Indirect effects can include changes in air quality, water availability, and food production and distribution. These changes can lead to an increase in respiratory problems, malnutrition, and increased food insecurity. There is a perceived need to investigate the extent to which Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) are engaged in efforts to foster a greater understanding of the connections between climate change and health. In this context, this preliminary investigation offers an overview of the relationships between climate change and health. By means of a survey among teaching staff and researchers at HEIs from 42 countries across all continents working on the connection between climate change and health. The study has investigated the extent to which current provisions for education and training on the connection between climate change and health are being considered and how current needs in terms of policy development, research, and training are being met. A series of case studies illustrate how universities worldwide are actively developing strategies and implementing measures to address climate change and health. The study concludes by providing specific recommendations aimed at facilitating the handling of issues related to climate change and health in a higher education context.}, }
@article {pmid38771597, year = {2024}, author = {Baker, MB and Hsieh, A and Gupta, V and Kim, Y and Merriel, M and Nozari, A and Binda, DD}, title = {The Color of Climate Change: Can Choice of Anesthetic Be Institutionally Racist?.}, journal = {Anesthesia and analgesia}, volume = {138}, number = {6}, pages = {1154-1158}, doi = {10.1213/ANE.0000000000006809}, pmid = {38771597}, issn = {1526-7598}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Racism/prevention &amp; control ; Anesthetics ; Anesthesia/methods ; Choice Behavior ; Anesthesiology/methods ; }, }
@article {pmid38771596, year = {2024}, author = {Slingo, ME and Slingo, JM}, title = {The Color of Climate Change: Transparency Over the Burden From Anesthesia.}, journal = {Anesthesia and analgesia}, volume = {138}, number = {6}, pages = {1151-1153}, pmid = {38771596}, issn = {1526-7598}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Anesthesia/adverse effects ; Anesthesiology ; }, }
@article {pmid38771091, year = {2024}, author = {Ruthsatz, K and Dahlke, F and Alter, K and Wohlrab, S and Eterovick, PC and Lyra, ML and Gippner, S and Cooke, SJ and Peck, MA}, title = {Acclimation capacity to global warming of amphibians and freshwater fishes: Drivers, patterns, and data limitations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {e17318}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17318}, pmid = {38771091}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {459850971//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; 2021/10639-5//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; //University of Hamburg/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Acclimatization/physiology ; *Fishes/physiology ; *Fresh Water ; *Amphibians/physiology/growth &amp; development ; *Global Warming ; Phylogeny ; Climate Change ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Amphibians and fishes play a central role in shaping the structure and function of freshwater environments. These organisms have a limited capacity to disperse across different habitats and the thermal buffer offered by freshwater systems is small. Understanding determinants and patterns of their physiological sensitivity across life history is, therefore, imperative to predicting the impacts of climate change in freshwater systems. Based on a systematic literature review including 345 experiments with 998 estimates on 96 amphibian (Anura/Caudata) and 93 freshwater fish species (Teleostei), we conducted a quantitative synthesis to explore phylogenetic, ontogenetic, and biogeographic (thermal adaptation) patterns in upper thermal tolerance (CTmax) and thermal acclimation capacity (acclimation response ratio, ARR) as well as the influence of the methodology used to assess these thermal traits using a conditional inference tree analysis. We found globally consistent patterns in CTmax and ARR, with phylogeny (taxa/order), experimental methodology, climatic origin, and life stage as significant determinants of thermal traits. The analysis demonstrated that CTmax does not primarily depend on the climatic origin but on experimental acclimation temperature and duration, and life stage. Higher acclimation temperatures and longer acclimation times led to higher CTmax values, whereby Anuran larvae revealed a higher CTmax than older life stages. The ARR of freshwater fishes was more than twice that of amphibians. Differences in ARR between life stages were not significant. In addition to phylogenetic differences, we found that ARR also depended on acclimation duration, ramping rate, and adaptation to local temperature variability. However, the amount of data on early life stages is too small, methodologically inconsistent, and phylogenetically unbalanced to identify potential life cycle bottlenecks in thermal traits. We, therefore, propose methods to improve the robustness and comparability of CTmax/ARR data across species and life stages, which is crucial for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38770234, year = {2024}, author = {Kumar, P and Priyanshu, P and Sharma, RK and Sharma, D and Arora, M and Gaidhane, AM and Zahiruddin, QS and Rustagi, S and Mawejje, E and Satapathy, P}, title = {Climate change and its role in the emergence of new tick-borne Yezo virus.}, journal = {New microbes and new infections}, volume = {60-61}, number = {}, pages = {101423}, pmid = {38770234}, issn = {2052-2975}, }
@article {pmid38770159, year = {2024}, author = {Carr, TW and Addo, F and Palazzo, A and Havlik, P and Pérez-Guzmán, K and Ali, Z and Green, R and Hadida, G and Segnon, AC and Zougmoré, R and Scheelbeek, P}, title = {Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply-demand gap?.}, journal = {Food security}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {691-704}, pmid = {38770159}, issn = {1876-4517}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: With rising demand for food and the threats posed by climate change, The Gambia faces significant challenges in ensuring sufficient and nutritious food for its population. To address these challenges, there is a need to increase domestic food production while limiting deforestation and land degradation. In this study, we modified the FABLE Calculator, a food and land-use system model, to focus on The Gambia to simulate scenarios for future food demand and increasing domestic food production. We considered the impacts of climate change on crops, the adoption of climate change adaptation techniques, as well as the potential of enhanced fertiliser use and irrigation to boost crop productivity, and assessed whether these measures would be sufficient to meet the projected increase in food demand. Our results indicate that domestic food production on existing cropland will not be sufficient to meet national food demand by 2050, leading to a significant supply-demand gap. However, investments in fertiliser availability and the development of sustainable irrigation infrastructure, coupled with climate change adaptation strategies like the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and optimised planting dates, could halve this gap. Addressing the remaining gap will require additional strategies, such as increasing imports, expanding cropland, or prioritising the production of domestic food crops over export crops. Given the critical role imports play in The Gambia's food supply, it is essential to ensure a robust flow of food imports by diversifying partners and addressing regional trade barriers. Our study highlights the urgent need for sustained investment and policy support to enhance domestic food production and food imports to secure sufficient and healthy food supplies amidst growing demand and climate change challenges.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-024-01444-1.}, }
@article {pmid38770020, year = {2024}, author = {Li, Z}, title = {Editorial: Marine microbial symbioses: host-microbe interaction, holobiont's adaptation to niches and global climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1416897}, pmid = {38770020}, issn = {1664-302X}, }
@article {pmid38769470, year = {2024}, author = {Li, E and Wang, Y and Liu, K and Liu, Y and Xu, C and Dong, W and Zhang, Z}, title = {Historical climate change and vicariance events contributed to the intercontinental disjunct distribution pattern of ash species (Fraxinus, Oleaceae).}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {603}, pmid = {38769470}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {*Fraxinus/genetics ; *Climate Change ; *Phylogeny ; *Fossils ; *Phylogeography ; Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {The Northern Hemisphere temperate forests exhibit a disjunct distributional pattern in Europe, North America, and East Asia. Here, to reveal the promoter of intercontinental disjunct distribution, Fraxinus was used as a model organism to integrate abundant fossil evidence with high-resolution phylogenies in a phytogeographic analysis. We constructed a robust phylogenetic tree using genomic data, reconstructed the geographic ancestral areas, and evaluated the effect of incorporating fossil information on the reconstructed biogeographic history. The phylogenetic relationships of Fraxinus were highly resolved and divided into seven clades. Fraxinus originated in western North America during Eocene, and six intercontinental dispersal events and five intercontinental vicariance events were occured. Results suggest that climate change and vicariance contributed to the intercontinental disjunct distribution pattern of Fraxinus. Moreover, results highlight the necessity of integrating phylogenetic relationship and fossil to improve the reliability of inferred biogeographic events and our understanding of the processes underlying disjunct distributions.}, }
@article {pmid38768722, year = {2024}, author = {Filonchyk, M and Peterson, MP and Zhang, L and Hurynovich, V and He, Y}, title = {Greenhouse gases emissions and global climate change: Examining the influence of CO2, CH4, and N2O.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173359}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173359}, pmid = {38768722}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {An in-depth analysis of the role of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in climate change is examined here along with their diverse sources, including the combustion of fossil fuels, agriculture, and industrial processes. Key GHG components such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are considered, along with data on emissions across various economic sectors. The consequences of climate change are also highlighted, ranging from more frequent and intense extreme weather events to rising sea levels and impacts on ecosystems and human health. The industrial revolution and unrestricted use of fossil fuels are key factors leading to an increase in GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Global efforts to reduce emissions are considered, starting with the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and culminating in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The limited effectiveness of early initiatives is underscored, emphasizing the significant importance of the Paris Agreement that provides a global framework for establishing goals to reduce GHG emissions by country. The Green Climate Fund and other international financial mechanisms are also considered as essential tools for financing sustainable projects in developing countries. The global community faces the challenge and necessity for more ambitious efforts to achieve the set goals for reducing GHG emissions. Successful strategies are examined by Sweden, Costa Rica, and Denmark to achieve zero GHG emissions that integrate renewable energy sources and technologies. The importance of global cooperation for creating a sustainable future is also emphasized.}, }
@article {pmid38768364, year = {2024}, author = {Sandal, S and Ethier, I and Onu, U and Fung, W and Bajpai, D and Bilchut, WH and Bagasha, P and De Chiara, L and Hafiz, E and Smyth, B and Kelly, D and Pippias, M and Jha, V}, title = {Climate Change, Kidney Health, and Environmentally Sustainable Kidney Care.}, journal = {Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1681/ASN.0000000000000402}, pmid = {38768364}, issn = {1533-3450}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Given the threat of climate change to kidney health and the significant environmental impact of kidney care, calls are increasing for healthcare professionals and organizations to champion climate advocacy and environmentally sustainable kidney care. Yet, little is known about their engagement and existing literature is primarily emerging from high-income countries.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey to understand the knowledge, attitude, and practice of healthcare professionals on the interconnectedness of climate change and kidney health; to identify personal and organizational initiatives in sustainable kidney care and strategies to increase their engagement; and to compare responses by their country's income level as classified by the World Bank.<br><br>RESULTS: Participants (n=972) represented 108 countries with 64% from lower- or middle-income countries. Ninety-eight percent believed that climate change is happening, yet <50% possessed knowledge about the impact of climate change on kidney health or the environmental impact of kidney care. Only 14% were involved in climate change and kidney health initiatives (membership, knowledge/awareness, research, advocacy); 22% in sustainable kidney care initiatives (education/advocacy, preventative nephrology, sustainable dialysis, promoting transplant/home therapies, research); and 26% reported organizational initiatives in sustainable kidney care (sustainable general or dialysis practices, preventative/lean nephrology, focused committees). Participants from lower-income countries generally reported higher knowledge and variable level of concern. Engagement in sustainable kidney care did not vary by income level. Guidance/toolkit (79%), continuing education (75%) and opportunities (74%) were the top choices to increase engagement. National initiatives (47%), preventative measures (35%) and research endeavors (31%) were the top avenues for organizational engagement. These varied by income level suggesting that the vision and priorities vary by baseline resource setting.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We have identified knowledge and practice gaps among healthcare professionals on the bidirectional relationship between kidney disease and climate change in a multinational context and several avenues to increase their engagement.}, }
@article {pmid38767202, year = {2024}, author = {Liao, H and Lyon, CJ and Ying, B and Hu, T}, title = {Climate change, its impact on emerging infectious diseases and new technologies to combat the challenge.}, journal = {Emerging microbes &amp; infections}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {2356143}, doi = {10.1080/22221751.2024.2356143}, pmid = {38767202}, issn = {2222-1751}, abstract = {Improved sanitation, increased access to health care, and advances in preventive and clinical medicine have reduced the mortality and morbidity rates of several infectious diseases. However, recent outbreaks of several emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) have caused substantial mortality and morbidity, and the frequency of these outbreaks is likely to increase due to pathogen, environmental, and population effects driven by climate change. Extreme or persistent changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity, and air pollution associated with climate change can, for example, expand the size of EID reservoirs, increase host-pathogen and cross-species host contacts to promote transmission or spillover events, and degrade the overall health of susceptible host populations leading to new EID outbreaks. It is therefore vital to establish global strategies to track and model potential responses of candidate EIDs to project their future behavior and guide research efforts on early detection and diagnosis technologies and vaccine development efforts for these targets. Multi-disciplinary collaborations are demanding to develop effective inter-continental surveillance and modeling platforms that employ artificial intelligence to mitigate climate change effects on EID outbreaks. In this review, we discuss how climate change has increased the risk of EIDs and describe novel approaches to improve surveillance of emerging pathogens that pose the risk for EID outbreaks, new and existing measures that could be used to contain or reduce the risk of future EID outbreaks, and new methods to improve EID tracking during further outbreaks to limit disease transmission.}, }
@article {pmid38766731, year = {2024}, author = {George, BR}, title = {The way forward is collaborative: Climate change and mental wellbeing.}, journal = {Australasian psychiatry : bulletin of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists}, volume = {32}, number = {3}, pages = {272-274}, doi = {10.1177/10398562241249307e}, pmid = {38766731}, issn = {1440-1665}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid38764543, year = {2024}, author = {Thompson, TJU}, title = {The impact of climate change and sustainability initiatives on forensic practice.}, journal = {Forensic science international. Synergy}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {100475}, pmid = {38764543}, issn = {2589-871X}, abstract = {The climate change crisis affects all aspects of our lives, and this includes national and global scientific endeavours. The forensic sciences are no different but are yet to engage meaningfully with this agenda or to consider what it means for future practice. This paper explores and discusses a range of impacts on forensic and crime scene practice derived from climate change and proposes the potential implications. The paper concludes by laying out a way forward and a programme of activity to support the forensic sciences to manage the implications of climate change and related sustainability initiatives on the criminal and medico-legal investigative community.}, }
@article {pmid38763361, year = {2024}, author = {Gagnon, A&#xc8; and Bourgeois, G}, title = {Impact of climate change on the reproductive diapause and voltinism of the carrot weevil, Listronotus oregonensis.}, journal = {Journal of insect physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {104653}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinsphys.2024.104653}, pmid = {38763361}, issn = {1879-1611}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on the development of insects are of great concern due to potential alterations in population dynamics and pest pressure. The carrot weevil, Listronotus oregonensis, is a major agricultural pest, and its development is influenced by temperature and photoperiod. In this study, our aim was to investigate the impact of temperature increases on the voltinism and reproductive diapause of the carrot weevil under field conditions and bioclimatic models. Field observations were conducted over two growing seasons using structures that allowed for temperature increases. The developmental stages of the carrot weevil, including female reproductive status, oviposition and larval stage, were monitored weekly to measure the proportion of individuals undergoing an additional generation. Concurrently, bioclimatic models were used to simulate the probability of a second generation under current (1981-2010) and future (2041-2070) climates, considering a lower and a higher change in emission scenarios. Results showed that rising temperatures led to an increase in the proportion of carrot weevils undergoing inhibition of the reproductive diapause and a higher number of eggs laid in the field. The models indicated a substantial rise in the probability of a second generation developing, from 24% to 37% to 62%-99% under current and future climates, respectively. These findings demonstrate the potential for significant alterations in carrot weevil population dynamics, resulting in increased pest pressure on crops. Further research is needed to fully understand the implications of these findings and to develop effective adaptation measures to mitigate the negative impacts of global warming on insect populations and agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid38769670, year = {2021}, author = {Rivero, MJ and Lopez-Villalobos, N and Evans, A and Berndt, A and Cartmill, A and Neal, AL and McLaren, A and Farruggia, A and Mignolet, C and Chadwick, D and Styles, D and McCracken, D and Busch, D and Martin, GB and Fleming, H and Sheridan, H and Gibbons, J and Merbold, L and Eisler, M and Lambe, N and Rovira, P and Harris, P and Murphy, P and Vercoe, PE and Williams, P and Machado, R and Takahashi, T and Puech, T and Boland, T and Ayala, W and Lee, MRF}, title = {Key traits for ruminant livestock across diverse production systems in the context of climate change: perspectives from a global platform of research farms.}, journal = {Reproduction, fertility, and development}, volume = {33}, number = {2}, pages = {1-19}, doi = {10.1071/RD20205}, pmid = {38769670}, issn = {1448-5990}, abstract = {Ruminant livestock are raised under diverse cultural and environmental production systems around the globe. Ruminant livestock can play a critical role in food security by supplying high-quality, nutrient-dense food with little or no competition for arable land while simultaneously improving soil health through vital returns of organic matter. However, in the context of climate change and limited land resources, the role of ruminant-based systems is uncertain because of their reputed low efficiency of feed conversion (kilogram of feed required per kilogram of product) and the production of methane as a by-product of enteric fermentation. A growing human population will demand more animal protein, which will put greater pressure on the Earth's planetary boundaries and contribute further to climate change. Therefore, livestock production globally faces the dual challenges of mitigating emissions and adapting to a changing climate. This requires research-led animal and plant breeding and feeding strategies to optimise ruminant systems. This study collated information from a global network of research farms reflecting a variety of ruminant production systems in diverse regions of the globe. Using this information, key changes in the genetic and nutritional approaches relevant to each system were drawn that, if implemented, would help shape more sustainable future ruminant livestock systems.}, }
@article {pmid38760101, year = {2024}, author = {Sisodiya, SM and Gulcebi, MI and Fortunato, F and Mills, JD and Haynes, E and Bramon, E and Chadwick, P and Ciccarelli, O and David, AS and De Meyer, K and Fox, NC and Davan Wetton, J and Koltzenburg, M and Kullmann, DM and Kurian, MA and Manji, H and Maslin, MA and Matharu, M and Montgomery, H and Romanello, M and Werring, DJ and Zhang, L and Friston, KJ and Hanna, MG}, title = {Climate change and disorders of the nervous system.}, journal = {The Lancet. Neurology}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {636-648}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-4422(24)00087-5}, pmid = {38760101}, issn = {1474-4465}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Nervous System Diseases/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is affecting people's health, including those with neurological and psychiatric diseases. Currently, making inferences about the effect of climate change on neurological and psychiatric diseases is challenging because of an overall sparsity of data, differing study methods, paucity of detail regarding disease subtypes, little consideration of the effect of individual and population genetics, and widely differing geographical locations with the potential for regional influences. However, evidence suggests that the incidence, prevalence, and severity of many nervous system conditions (eg, stroke, neurological infections, and some mental health disorders) can be affected by climate change. The data show broad and complex adverse effects, especially of temperature extremes to which people are unaccustomed and wide diurnal temperature fluctuations. Protective measures might be possible through local forecasting. Few studies project the future effects of climate change on brain health, hindering policy developments. Robust studies on the threats from changing climate for people who have, or are at risk of developing, disorders of the nervous system are urgently needed.}, }
@article {pmid38760086, year = {2024}, author = {Junck, L and Saad, A and Andrews, B}, title = {Neurology and climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Neurology}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {552-553}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-4422(24)00144-3}, pmid = {38760086}, issn = {1474-4465}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Neurology ; Nervous System Diseases/therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid38758441, year = {2024}, author = {Olujobi, OJ}, title = {Nigeria's Climate Change Act 2021: A pathway to net-zero carbon emission, energy security and sustainability.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38758441}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The global push for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 requires countries to adopt sustainable energy sources, address energy poverty and promote energy security. Nigeria is grappling with an energy crisis, and the recently enacted Climate Change Act 2021 offers the prospect of addressing this while advancing energy sustainability. The study evaluates the Act's potential in promoting energy security and global net-zero carbon emissions. Nigeria faces challenges in recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and combating climate change, prompting countries to take domestic and international measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Through doctrinal legal research and conceptual analysis, the study examines Nigeria's Climate Change Act, proposing solutions to enhance its commitment to global net-zero carbon emissions. It conducts a comparative legal analysis of climate change frameworks in Kenya, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, providing insights and suggesting reforms to Nigeria's Act for Energy Security. While the existing laws are adequate, weak enforcement by regulatory agencies and a lack of political will hinder compliance. Public awareness regarding individual contributions to climate change is also lacking. The study recommends increased funding for regulatory institutions and proactive public awareness. Complying with the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goal 13 is vital for a sustainable energy future.}, }
@article {pmid38758197, year = {2024}, author = {Doshi, S and Vuppula, S and Jaggi, P}, title = {Healthcare Sustainability to Address Climate Change: Call for Action to the Infectious Diseases Community.}, journal = {Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jpids/piae029}, pmid = {38758197}, issn = {2048-7207}, abstract = {The U.S. healthcare system's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change is disproportionately high and harms the public. Several medical specialties are now reassessing how they can mitigate healthcare's harmful environmental impact. Healthcare sustainability is broadly defined as measures to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, waste, and other pollutants generated during the healthcare delivery process. Prior efforts and programs by infectious diseases (ID) professionals, such as antimicrobial stewardship and infection prevention and control can form a framework for ID professionals to help apply this expertise to healthcare environmental sustainability more broadly. This call to action proposes strategies for ID societies and professionals to incorporate climate change education for trainees, increase research and funding opportunities in healthcare sustainability, and calls for action by ID societies to champion system changes to decrease greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid38757655, year = {2024}, author = {Fırat Kılıç, H and Cevheroğlu, S and Gök, ND}, title = {Nursing students' awareness of global climate change: A descriptive and cross-sectional study.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13340}, pmid = {38757655}, issn = {1525-1446}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine nursing students' awareness of global climate change.<br><br>DESIGN: This descriptive and cross-sectional study was conducted with 302 undergraduate nursing students from a foundation university in Northern Cyprus during the spring semester of the 2021-2022 academic year. A descriptive information form and the Awareness Scale of University Students about Global Climate Change (ASUSGCC) were used for data collection.<br><br>RESULTS: The mean ASUSGCC score was 3.54&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;0.64, and the participants received the lowest and highest scores from the awareness of the causes of global climate change (3.54&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;0.64) and awareness of the effects of global climate change on the natural and human environment (4.03&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;0.70) subscales, respectively. A statistically significant difference was observed between the Global Climate Change scores and the year of education, with fourth-year students obtaining significantly higher scores (p&#xa0;<&#xa0;.05).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study found that nursing students have a moderate level of awareness of global climate change. To raise the level of awareness among these undergraduates, who will be future healthcare professionals, we recommend including climate change awareness in the national nursing curricula.}, }
@article {pmid38756689, year = {2024}, author = {Xie, C and Liu, C and Wang, H and Liu, D and Jim, CY}, title = {Distribution pattern of large old Ginkgo biloba in China under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e11367}, pmid = {38756689}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Large old Ginkgo biloba trees (LOGTs), with profound ecological and cultural significance in China, face increasing threats from climate change and human activities. We employed the BIOCLIM and DOMAIN species distribution models to predict their spatial patterns under the present climate and doubled-CO2 climate change scenario in 2100. We collected 604 validated LOGT occurrence records and data on 19 bioclimate factors for the analysis. Our study yielded a LOGT geographic distribution pattern covering a wide latitudinal belt extending from south subtropical to temperate zones in central and eastern China, concentrating in low elevations and coastal regions. The principal component analysis identified the dominant bioclimatic factors shaping their distribution, namely annual precipitation and low winter temperatures. BIOCLIM and DOMAIN generated predicted suitable habitats that match the present distribution range well. However, under the future climate scenario, the models indicated habitat retentions mainly in the core distribution areas and habitat losses mainly in the southern edge of the present range and scattered pockets elsewhere. Some retained habitats, including excellent ones, will suffer from fragmentation. The predicted new habitats may permit some range expansion and migration but are beset by small patch size and large interpatch distance, bringing fragmentation and gene flow restrictions. The anticipated projected range decline highlights considerable threats climate change poses to the long-term survival of the precious natural-cum-cultural resource. Understanding the distribution patterns and underlying drivers and distillation of practical conservation measures can foster sustainable management vis-a-vis the looming global change.}, }
@article {pmid38756515, year = {2024}, author = {Rodríguez-Escolar, I and Balmori-de la Puente, A and Collado-Cuadrado, M and Bravo-Barriga, D and Delacour-Estrella, S and Hernández-Lambraño, RE and Sánchez Agudo, J&#xc1; and Morchón, R}, title = {Analysis of the current risk of Leishmania infantum transmission for domestic dogs in Spain and Portugal and its future projection in climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in veterinary science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1399772}, pmid = {38756515}, issn = {2297-1769}, abstract = {Canine leishmaniosis, caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania infantum, is a cosmopolitan vector-borne zoonosis, transmitted principally by Phlebotomus perniciosus in Spain and Portugal, where it is considered an endemic disease. Ecoinformatics tools such as ecological niche models (ENM) have been successfully tested to model the distribution of the risk of infection of different parasitosis as they take into account environmental variables vital for their survival. The risk map proposed in this study combines the potential distribution of Ph. perniciosus in the Iberian Peninsula and the calculation of the infection rate of the parasite in the vector to model the risk of contracting the disease in a more realistic way. In fact, this weighting strategy improves the predictive power of the resulting model (R[2] = 0.42, p = < 0.01) compared to the Ph. perniciosus ENM model alone (R[2] = 0.13, p > 0.05). The places with the highest risk of transmission are the southwest and central peninsular area, as well as the Mediterranean coast, the Balearic Islands and the Ebro basin, places where the ideal habitat of Ph. perniciosus and the infection rate is also high. In the case of future projections under climate change scenarios, an increase in the risk of infection by L. infantum can be observed in most of the territory (4.5% in 2040, 71.6% in 2060 and 63% in 2080), mainly in the northern part of the peninsula. The use of ENMs and their weighting with the infection rate in Ph. perniciosus is a useful tool in predicting the risk of infection for L. infantum in dogs for a given area. In this way, a more complete model can be obtained to facilitate prevention and control.}, }
@article {pmid38755479, year = {2024}, author = {Bote, L and Maes, M}, title = {Tracking pathogen evolution through climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38755479}, issn = {1740-1534}, }
@article {pmid38755475, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, B and Xu, R}, title = {An assessment on the new impetus of green energy development and its impact on climate change: a non-linear perspective.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38755475}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {71974085//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 72374177//Yalong River Joint Fund/ ; }, abstract = {The purpose of this article is to investigate the new driving forces behind China's green energy and further assess the impact of green energy on climate change. The existing literature has used linear methods to investigate green energy, ignoring the non-linear relationships between economic variables. The nonparametric models can accurately simulate nonlinear relationships between economic variables. This paper constructs a nonparametric additive model and uses it to explore green energy. The empirical results show that the impact of green finance on green energy is more prominent in the later stage (a U-shaped impact). Fiscal decentralization also exerts a positive U-shaped impact, meaning that expanding local fiscal autonomy has contributed to green energy growth in the later stage. Similarly, the impact of oil prices and foreign direct investment demonstrates a positive U-shaped pattern. However, the nonlinear impact of environmental pressure displays an inverted U-shaped pattern. Furthermore, this article explores the impact of green energy on climate change and its impact mechanisms. The results exhibit green energy generates a positive U-shaped impact on climate change, meaning that the role of green energy in mitigating climate change gradually becomes prominent over time. Mechanism analysis exhibits that industrial structure and energy structure both produce a nonlinear influence on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38755138, year = {2024}, author = {Qiao, X and Straight, B and Ngo, D and Hilton, CE and Owuor Olungah, C and Naugle, A and Lalancette, C and Needham, BL}, title = {Severe drought exposure in utero associates to children's epigenetic age acceleration in a global climate change hot spot.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {4140}, pmid = {38755138}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {1728743//NSF | Directorate for Social, Behavioral &amp; Economic Sciences | Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences (Behavioral &amp; Cognitive Sciences)/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Droughts ; Female ; *Epigenesis, Genetic ; *Climate Change ; Kenya ; Male ; Child ; *DNA Methylation ; *Prenatal Exposure Delayed Effects/genetics/metabolism ; Pregnancy ; Aging/genetics ; Saliva/metabolism ; Child, Preschool ; }, abstract = {The goal of this study is to examine the association between in utero drought exposure and epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) in a global climate change hot spot. Calculations of EAA in adults using DNA methylation have been found to accurately predict chronic disease and longevity. However, fewer studies have examined EAA in children, and drought exposure in utero has not been investigated. Additionally, studies of EAA in low-income countries with diverse populations are rare. We assess EAA using epigenetic clocks and two DNAm-based pace-of-aging measurements from whole saliva samples in 104 drought-exposed children and 109 same-sex sibling controls in northern Kenya. We find a positive association between in utero drought exposure and EAA in two epigenetic clocks (Hannum's and GrimAge) and a negative association in the DNAm based telomere length (DNAmTL) clock. The combined impact of drought's multiple deleterious stressors may reduce overall life expectancy through accelerated epigenetic aging.}, }
@article {pmid38754610, year = {2024}, author = {Ji, Y and Zeng, S and Liu, X and Xia, J}, title = {Mutual Inhibition Effects of Elevated CO2 and Climate Change on Global Forest GPP.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {119145}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119145}, pmid = {38754610}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {The impact of CO2 fertilization on enhancing global forest gross primary productivity (GPP) is acknowledged, but its interaction with climate factors-air temperature (Tem), precipitation (Pre), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and radiation (Rad)-remains unclear. In this study, global forest GPP trends from 1982 to 2018 were examined using BEPS, NIRv, FLUXCOM, and revised EC-LUE datasets, with interannual trends of 5.618 (p<0.01), 5.831 (p<0.01), 0.227, and 6.566 g C m[-2] yr[-1] (p<0.01), respectively. Elevated CO2 was identified as the primary driver of GPP trends, with the dominant area ranging from 51.11% to 90.37% across different GPP datasets. In the NIRv and revised EC-LUE datasets, the positive impact of CO2 on GPP showed a decrease of 0.222 g C m[-2] yr[-1], while the negative impact of Rad increased by 0.007 g C m[-2] yr[-1]. An inhibitory relationship was found between the actual effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on GPP in most forest types. At lower latitudes, Tem primarily constrained CO2 fertilization, while at higher latitudes, VPD emerged as the key limiting factor. This was mainly attributed to the potential trade-off or competition between elevated CO2 and climate change in influencing GPP, with strategic resource allocation varying across different forest ecosystems. This study highlights the significant inhibitory effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on global forest GPP, providing insights into the dynamic responses of forest ecosystems to changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid38754518, year = {2024}, author = {Godwin, A and Pieralli, S and Sofkova-Bobcheva, S and Ward, A and McGill, C}, title = {Pollen-mediated gene flow from wild carrots (Daucus carota L. subsp. carota) affects the production of commercial carrot seeds (Daucus carota L. subsp. sativus) internationally and in New Zealand in the context of climate change: A systematic review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173269}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173269}, pmid = {38754518}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change will impact the carrot seed industry globally. One adaptation strategy to limit climatic impacts on the production of commercial carrot seeds is geographical shift. However, production must be shifted to climate-optimal places that are free from weeds such as wild carrots to avoid genetic contamination via hybridization. The process of gene flow between wild and cultivated carrots is critical to enable management of wild carrots in the face of climate change. This review systematically assesses the resilience of wild carrots to climate change and their impact on commercial carrot seed production globally with a focus on New Zealand as a major carrot seed producer. The literature was critically analyzed based on three specific components: i) resilience of wild carrots to climate change ii) genetic contamination between wild and cultivated carrots, and iii) management of wild carrots. The majority of the articles were published between 2013 and 2023 (64.71 %), and most of these studies were conducted in Europe (37.26 %) and North America (27.45 %). Country-wise analysis demonstrated that the majority of the studies were carried out in the United States (23.53 %) and the Netherlands (11.77 %). There was limited research conducted in other regions, especially in Oceania (1.96 %). Spatial distribution analysis revealed that the wild carrot was reported in around 100 countries. In New Zealand the North Island has a higher incidence of wild carrot invasion than the South Island. The findings indicated that the wild carrot is becoming more adaptable to climate change, compromising the genetic purity of cultivated carrots due to pollen flow from wild to cultivated carrots. Therefore, ongoing research will be helpful in developing sustainable weed management strategies and predicting potential geographical invasiveness. This study provides a guide for scientists, policymakers, industrialists, and farmers to control wild carrots and produce genetically pure commercial seeds amid climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38753709, year = {2024}, author = {Woolley, G and Kroll, K and Hoffman, K and Ward, A and Corneli, A and Mudrak, SV and Qureshi, MU and Okeke, NL and Chan, C and Jones, AD and Tomaras, GD and Reeves, RK}, title = {The Climate Change Burden on Immune Health: Are Persons Living With HIV More at Risk?.}, journal = {AIDS research and human retroviruses}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1089/AID.2024.0050}, pmid = {38753709}, issn = {1931-8405}, abstract = {<no abstract>.}, }
@article {pmid38753664, year = {2024}, author = {Harman, RR and Morrison, WR and Ludwick, D and Gerken, AR}, title = {Predicted range expansion of Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) under projected climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toae085}, pmid = {38753664}, issn = {1938-291X}, support = {//NIFA/ ; //USDA/ ; 2020-70006-33000//Crop Protection and Pest Management/ ; }, abstract = {The larger grain borer (Prostephanus truncatus [Horn] [Coleoptera: Bostrichidae]) is a wood-boring insect native to Central America and adapted to stored maize and cassava. It was accidentally introduced to Tanzania and became a pest across central Africa. Unlike many grain pests, P. truncatus populations can establish and move within forests. Consequently, novel infestations can occur without human influence. The objectives of our study were to (i) develop an updated current suitability projection for P. truncatus, (ii) assess its potential future distribution under different climate change scenarios, and (iii) identify climate variables that best inform the model. We used WALLACE and MaxEnt to predict potential global distribution by incorporating bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Future models were projected for 2050 and 2070 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 (low change) and 8.5 (high change). Distribution was most limited by high precipitation and cold temperatures. Globally, highly suitable areas (> 75%) primarily occurred along coastal and equatorial regions with novel areas in northern South America, India, southeastern Asia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, totaling 7% under current conditions. Highly suitable areas at RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 are estimated to increase to 12% and 15%, respectively, by 2050 and increase to 19% in 2070 under RCP 8.5. Centroids of highly suitable areas show distribution centers moving more inshore and away from the equator. Notably, the result is a range expansion, not a shift. Results can be used to decrease biosecurity risks through more spatially explicit and timely surveillance programs for targeting the exclusion of this pest.}, }
@article {pmid38752990, year = {2024}, author = {Zhou, L and Liu, C and He, C and Lei, J and Zhu, Y and Gao, Y and Xuan, J and Kan, H and Chen, R}, title = {Quantification of the Heat-Related Risk and Burden of Hospitalizations for Cause-Specific Injuries and Contribution of Human-Induced Climate Change: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Study in China.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {132}, number = {5}, pages = {57005}, doi = {10.1289/EHP14057}, pmid = {38752990}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Humans ; China/epidemiology ; *Hospitalization/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; *Cross-Over Studies ; Adult ; *Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Aged ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Infant ; Wounds and Injuries/epidemiology ; Infant, Newborn ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although ambient temperature has been linked with injury incidence, there have been few nationwide studies to quantify the temperature-related risk and burden of cause-specific injury hospitalizations. Additionally, the impact of human-induced climate change to injury burden remains unknown.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Our objectives are to examine the associations between ambient temperature and injury hospitalizations from various causes and to quantify the contribution of human-induced warming to the heat-related burden.<br><br>METHODS: We collected injury hospitalization data from a nationwide hospital-based registry in China during 2000-2019. Using a time-stratified case-crossover design, we investigated the associations between daily mean temperature (&#xb0;C) and cause-specific injury hospitalizations. We also quantified the burden of heat-related injuries under the scenarios with and without anthropogenic forcing, using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project to assess the contribution of human-induced warming.<br><br>RESULTS: Our study included a total of 988,087 patients with hospitalization records for injuries. Overall, compared to the temperature at minimum risk of hospitalization (-12.1&#xb0;C), the relative risk of hospitalization at extreme hot temperature (30.8&#xb0;C, 97.5th percentile) was 1.18 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14, 1.22], with an approximately linear association between temperature and hospitalization. Vulnerability to heat-related injuries was more pronounced among males, young (<18 years of age) or middle-aged (45-64 years of age) individuals, and those living in the North. The heat-related attributable fraction increased from 23.2% in the 2000s to 23.6% in the 2010s, with a corresponding increase in the contribution of human-induced change over time. In the 2010s, the heat-related attributable fractions for specific causes of injury ranged from 12.4% to 54.4%, with human-induced change accounting for 6.7% to 10.6% of the burden.<br><br>DISCUSSION: This nationwide study presents new evidence of significant associations between temperature and cause-specific injury hospitalizations in China and highlights the increasing contribution of human-induced warming to the injury burden. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14057.}, }
@article {pmid38752595, year = {2024}, author = {Meza-Buendia, AK and Aparicio-Trejo, OE and Díaz, F and Pedraza-Chaverri, J and Álvarez-Delgado, C and Rosas, C}, title = {Climate change consequences on the systemic heart of female Octopus maya: oxidative phosphorylation assessment and the antioxidant system.}, journal = {Biology open}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/bio.060103}, pmid = {38752595}, issn = {2046-6390}, support = {CR IN203022//Universidad Nacional Aut&#xf3;noma de M&#xe9;xico/ ; FORDECYT-PRONACES/61503/2020//Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog&#xed;a/ ; //Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; *Oxidative Phosphorylation ; *Octopodiformes/metabolism/physiology ; *Antioxidants/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Acclimatization ; Temperature ; Heart/physiology ; Myocardium/metabolism ; Superoxide Dismutase/metabolism ; }, abstract = {There is evidence that indicates that temperature modulates the reproduction of the tropical species Octopus maya, through the over- or under-expression of many genes in the brain. If the oxygen supply to the brain depends on the circulatory system, how temperature affects different tissues will begin in the heart, responsible for pumping the oxygen to tissues. The present study examines the impact of heat stress on the mitochondrial function of the systemic heart of adult O. maya. The mitochondrial metabolism and antioxidant defense system were measured in the systemic heart tissue of female organisms acclimated to different temperatures (24, 26, and 30°C). The results show that acclimation temperature affects respiratory State 3 and State 4o (oligomycin-induced) with higher values observed in females acclimated at 26°C. The antioxidant defense system is also affected by acclimation temperature with significant differences observed in superoxide dismutase, glutathione S-transferase activities, and glutathione levels. The results suggest that high temperatures (30°C) could exert physical limitations on the circulatory system through the heart pumping, affecting nutrient and oxygen transport to other tissues, including the brain, which exerts control over the reproductive system. The role of the cardiovascular system in supporting aerobic metabolism in octopus females is discussed.}, }
@article {pmid38752201, year = {2024}, author = {Reese, A and Clark, CM and Phelan, J and Buckley, J and Cajka, J and Sabo, RD and Van Houtven, G}, title = {Geographic variation in projected US forest aboveground carbon responses to climate change and atmospheric deposition.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {19}, number = {}, pages = {1-12}, pmid = {38752201}, issn = {1748-9326}, abstract = {Forest composition and ecosystem services are sensitive to anthropogenic pressures like climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S). Here we extend recent forest projections for the current cohort of trees in the contiguous US, characterizing potential changes in aboveground tree carbon at the county level in response to varying mean annual temperature, precipitation, and N and S deposition. We found that relative to a scenario with N and S deposition reduction and no climate change, greater climate change led generally to decreasing aboveground carbon (mean -7.5% under RCP4.5, -16% under RCP8.5). Keeping climate constant, reduced N deposition tended to lessen aboveground carbon (mean -7%), whereas reduced S deposition tended to increase aboveground carbon (+3%) by 2100. Through mid-century (2050), deposition was more important for predicting carbon responses except under the extreme climate scenarios (RCP8.5); but, by 2100, climate drivers generally outweighed deposition. While more than 70% of counties showed reductions in aboveground carbon relative to the reference scenario, these were not evenly distributed across the US. Counties in the Northwest and Northern Great Plains, and the northern parts of New England and the Midwest, primarily showed positive responses, while counties in the Southeast showed negative responses. Counties with greater initial biomass showed less negative responses to climate change while those which exhibited the greatest change in composition (>15%) had a 95% chance of losing carbon relative to a no-climate change scenario. This analysis highlights that declines in forest growth and survival due to increases in mean temperature and reductions in atmospheric N deposition are likely to outweigh positive impacts of reduced S deposition and potential increases in precipitation. These effects vary at the regional and county level, however, so forest managers must consider local rather than national dynamics to maximize forest carbon sinks in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38751346, year = {2024}, author = {Li, T and Jiang, P and Liu, J and Zhu, J and Zhao, S and Li, Z and Zhong, M and Ma, C and Qin, Y}, title = {Considering climate change impact on the global potential geographical distribution of the invasive Argentine ant and little fire ant.}, journal = {Bulletin of entomological research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-12}, doi = {10.1017/S0007485324000270}, pmid = {38751346}, issn = {1475-2670}, abstract = {The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) and the little fire ant (Wasmannia auropunctata) are among the top 100 invasive alien species globally, causing significant ecological and economic harm. Therefore, it is crucial to study their potential geographic distribution worldwide. This study aimed to predict their global distribution under current and future climate conditions. We used distribution data from various sources, including CABI, GBIF, and PIAKey, and key climate variables selected from 19 environmental factors to model their potential geographic distribution using MaxEnt. The AUC values were 0.925 and 0.937 for L. humile and W. auropunctata, respectively, indicating good predictive performance. Suitable areas for L. humile were mainly in southern North America, northern South America, Europe, central Asia, southern Oceania, and parts of Africa, while W. auropunctata suitable areas were mostly in southern North America, most of South America, a small part of Europe, southern Asia, central Africa, and some parts of Oceania. Under climate change scenario, suitable areas for L. humile increased, while highly suitable areas for W. auropunctata decreased. The top four countries with the largest areas of overlapping suitable habitat under current climate were Brazil, China, Australia, and Argentina, while under future SSP585 climate scenario, the top four countries were Brazil, China, Indonesia, and Argentina. Some countries, such as Estonia and Finland, will see an overlapping adaptation area under climate change. In conclusion, this study provides insight into controlling the spread and harm of L. humile and W. auropunctata.}, }
@article {pmid38751102, year = {2024}, author = {Dellaripa, PF and Sung, LH and Bain, PA and Lanata, C and Blazar, A and Miller, FW and Feldman, CH and , }, title = {The American College of Rheumatology White Paper: The Effects of Climate Change on Rheumatic Conditions - An Evolving Landscape and a Path Forward.}, journal = {Arthritis &amp; rheumatology (Hoboken, N.J.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/art.42919}, pmid = {38751102}, issn = {2326-5205}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Increases in global temperatures and extreme weather events associated with climate change have complex yet poorly understood detrimental impacts on human health. We reviewed the current published literature on climate change-related effects and rheumatic conditions.<br><br>METHODS: To summarize our current understanding of the likely effects of climate change, including increased air pollution, on rheumatic disease, we searched the published, peer-reviewed English-language literature from January 2000-December 2022. Articles were reviewed by a team of rheumatologists and clinical and translational science researchers. Systematic review articles were not included but informed additional literature searches.<br><br>RESULTS: After extensive examination and adjudication, 88 articles met inclusion criteria and were selected for review. Much of the epidemiologic investigations assessed associations between air pollution and increased risk of development of rheumatoid arthritis, anti-citrullinated protein antibodies, flares of gout and hospitalizations for systemic lupus erythematosus. Increased heat vulnerability was associated with higher odds of recurrent hospitalizations across rheumatic conditions. Mechanisms for observed associations are poorly understood but could include the effects of epigenetic changes, oxidative stress, and inflammatory cytokines. Studies had limitations including restricted geography and populations studied without focus on historically marginalized communities at highest risk for adverse effects from pollution and climate change, the relative lack of mechanistic evaluations, and most with only indirect links to climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: To date, the published literature lacks studies that directly examine effects of climate change on rheumatic diseases. Collaborative translational and epidemiologic research is needed to enhance our understanding and awareness in this area.}, }
@article {pmid38750288, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, Y and Cheng, J and Zhang, Y and Pan, Y and Wu, J}, title = {Non-trade-off Changes in Soil Conservation Service and Soil Loss on the Tibetan Plateau Underlying the Impacts of Climate Change and human activities.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38750288}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {Grant No. 4210129//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; Grant No. 202001AU070019//Special Foundation for Basic Research Program of Yunnan province/ ; Grant No. KYBS2021071//Doctoral Scientific Research Foundation of Dali University/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change and human activities have significantly influenced soil loss and the soil conservation service, posed threats to regional ecological sustainability. However, the relationships and underlying driving forces between potential soil loss, actual soil loss, and soil conservation service have not been well understood. Utilizing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, we evaluated the soil conservation service on the Tibetan plateau from 1990 to 2020. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends and examined the driving factors using linear regression, Pearson correlation, and random forest regression. The soil conservation service exhibited a complex pattern of increase followed by a decrease, with a turning point around 2010. Soil conservation service and soil loss demonstrated non-trade-off changes. The potential soil loss dominated the spatiotemporal patterns of soil conservation service on the Tibetan Plateau. Climatic factors significantly influenced the spatiotemporal patterns of soil conservation service, with annual precipitation emerging as the dominant driving factor, contributing approximately 20%. However, the impacts of human activities became more pronounced since 2010, and the contribution of vegetation to changes in soil conservation service was increased. The impact of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on soil conservation service for the grades I, II, and III increased by 13.19%, 3.08%, and 3.41%, respectively. Conversely, in northern Tibet before 2010 and eastern Three-River-Source after 2010, soil conservation service exhibited an increasing trend driven by both climate factors and human activities. Which indicates that the implementation of ecological restoration measures facilitated vegetation improvement and subsequently reduced actual soil loss. This study provides a scientific basis for resource management, land development strategies, and the formulation of ecological restoration measures on the Tibetan Plateau.}, }
@article {pmid38749451, year = {2024}, author = {van Daalen, KR and Tonne, C and Semenza, JC and Rocklöv, J and Markandya, A and Dasandi, N and Jankin, S and Achebak, H and Ballester, J and Bechara, H and Beck, TM and Callaghan, MW and Carvalho, BM and Chambers, J and Pradas, MC and Courtenay, O and Dasgupta, S and Eckelman, MJ and Farooq, Z and Fransson, P and Gallo, E and Gasparyan, O and Gonzalez-Reviriego, N and Hamilton, I and Hänninen, R and Hatfield, C and He, K and Kazmierczak, A and Kendrovski, V and Kennard, H and Kiesewetter, G and Kouznetsov, R and Kriit, HK and Llabrés-Brustenga, A and Lloyd, SJ and Batista, ML and Maia, C and Martinez-Urtaza, J and Mi, Z and Milà, C and Minx, JC and Nieuwenhuijsen, M and Palamarchuk, J and Pantera, DK and Quijal-Zamorano, M and Rafaj, P and Robinson, EJZ and Sánchez-Valdivia, N and Scamman, D and Schmoll, O and Sewe, MO and Sherman, JD and Singh, P and Sirotkina, E and Sjödin, H and Sofiev, M and Solaraju-Murali, B and Springmann, M and Treskova, M and Triñanes, J and Vanuytrecht, E and Wagner, F and Walawender, M and Warnecke, L and Zhang, R and Romanello, M and Antò, JM and Nilsson, M and Lowe, R}, title = {The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action.}, journal = {The Lancet. Public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00055-0}, pmid = {38749451}, issn = {2468-2667}, }
@article {pmid38749375, year = {2024}, author = {Zulfiqar, F and Moosa, A and Ali, HM and Bermejo, NF and Munné-Bosch, S}, title = {Biostimulants: A sufficiently effective tool for sustainable agriculture in the era of climate change?.}, journal = {Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB}, volume = {211}, number = {}, pages = {108699}, doi = {10.1016/j.plaphy.2024.108699}, pmid = {38749375}, issn = {1873-2690}, abstract = {Climate change is currently considered as one of the main concerns of the agriculture sector, as it limits crop production and quality. Furthermore, the current context of global crisis with international political instability and war conflicts over the world is pushing the agriculture sector even more to urgently boost productivity and yield and doing so in a sustainable way in the current frame of climate change. Biostimulants can be an effective tool in alleviating the negative effects of environmental stresses to which plants are exposed, such as drought, salinity, heavy metals and extreme temperatures etc. Biostimulants act through multiple mechanisms, modifying gene expression, metabolism and phytohormone production, promoting the accumulation of compatible solutes and antioxidants and mitigating oxidative stress. However, it is important to keep in mind that the use and effect of biostimulants has limitations and must be accompanied by other techniques to ensure crop yield and quality in the current frame of climate change, such as proper crop management and the use of other sustainable resources. Here, we will not only highlight the potential use of biostimulants to face future agricultural challenges, but also take a critical look at their limitations, underlining the importance of a broad vision of sustainable agriculture in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38749034, year = {2024}, author = {Bell, ML and Gasparrini, A and Benjamin, GC}, title = {Climate Change, Extreme Heat, and Health.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {390}, number = {19}, pages = {1793-1801}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMra2210769}, pmid = {38749034}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid38748669, year = {2024}, author = {Visconti, G and Young, K}, title = {The effect of different extreme weather events on attitudes toward climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {e0300967}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0300967}, pmid = {38748669}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Opinion ; *Extreme Weather ; *Attitude ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Female ; Male ; Weather ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Global Warming ; United States ; }, abstract = {Can exposure to extreme weather change political opinion and preferences about climate change? There is a growing literature on both the effects of extreme weather events and the factors explaining attitudes toward global warming, though there remains no clear consensus about whether being exposed to extreme weather influences public opinion about climate change. We contribute to this literature by studying the impact of a variety of extreme weather events associated with climate variability, including severe storms, floods, fires, and hurricanes, on attitudes toward climate change. Specifically, we use a three-wave panel survey and a dynamic difference-in-differences design to analyze public opinion data at the individual level in the US. We find that exposure to only one extreme weather type-fires-has a small but significant effect on acknowledging the existence of climate change and supporting the need for action. However, that impact quickly vanishes, and other types of extreme weather do not appear to have any effect on opinion.}, }
@article {pmid38748072, year = {2024}, author = {Berkel, C}, title = {Potential Impact of Climate Change-Induced Alterations on Pyroptotic Cell Death in Animal Cells: A Review.}, journal = {Molecular biotechnology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38748072}, issn = {1559-0305}, abstract = {Climate change-induced alterations in temperature variation, ozone exposure, water salinity and acidification, and hypoxia might influence immunity and thus survival in diverse groups of animals from fish to mammals. Pyroptosis is a type of lytic pro-inflammatory programmed cell death, which participates in the innate immune response, and is involved in multiple diseases characterized by inflammation and cell death, mostly studied in human cells. Diverse extrinsic factors can induce pyroptosis, leading to the extracellular release of pro-inflammatory molecules such as IL-18. Climate change-related factors, either directly or indirectly, can also promote animal cell death via different regulated mechanisms, impacting organismal fitness. However, pyroptosis has been relatively less studied in this context compared to another cell death process, apoptosis. This review covers previous research pointing to the potential impact of climate change, through various abiotic stressors, on pyroptotic cell death in different animal cells in various contexts. It was proposed that temperature, ozone exposure, water salinity, water acidification and hypoxia have the potential to induce pyroptotic cell death in animal cells and promote inflammation, and that these pyroptotic events should be better understood to be able to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on animal physiology and health. This is of high importance considering the increasing frequency, intensity and duration of climate-based changes in these environmental parameters, and the critical function of pyroptosis in immune responses of animals and in their predisposition to multiple diseases including cancer. Furthermore, the need for further mechanistic studies showing the more direct impact of climate change-induced environmental alterations on pyroptotic cell death in animals at the organismal level was highlighted. A complete picture of the association between climate change and pyroptosis in animals will be also highly valuable in terms of ecological and clinical applications, and it requires an interdisciplinary approach. SIGNIFICANCE: Climate change-induced alterations might influence animal physiology. Pyroptosis is a form of cell death with pro-inflammatory characteristics. Previous research suggests that temperature variation, ozone exposure, water salinity and acidification, and hypoxia might have the potential to contribute to pyroptotic cell death in certain cell types and contexts. Climate change-induced pyroptotic cell death should be better understood to be able to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on animal health.}, }
@article {pmid38745485, year = {2024}, author = {Huang, M and Chen, Y and Zhou, W and Wei, F}, title = {Assessing the response of marine fish communities to climate change and fishing.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e14291}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.14291}, pmid = {38745485}, issn = {1523-1739}, support = {SLYJ2023B4004//the Guangdong Forestry Administration/ ; GML2020GD0804//PI Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)/ ; GML2022GD0804//PI Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)/ ; 2021QN02H103//Science and Technology Department of Guangdong Province/ ; 2021YFF0502800//Ministry of Science and Technology of China/ ; }, abstract = {Globally, marine fish communities are being altered by climate change and human disturbances. We examined data on global marine fish communities to assess changes in community-weighted mean temperature affinity (i.e., mean temperatures within geographic ranges), maximum length, and trophic levels, which, respectively, represent the physiological, morphological, and trophic characteristics of marine fish communities. Then, we explored the influence of climate change and fishing on these characteristics because of their long-term role in shaping fish communities, especially their interactive effects. We employed spatial linear mixed models to investigate their impacts on community-weighted mean trait values and on abundance of different fish lengths and trophic groups. Globally, we observed an initial increasing trend in the temperature affinity of marine fish communities, whereas the weighted mean length and trophic levels of fish communities showed a declining trend. However, these shift trends were not significant, likely due to the large variation in midlatitude communities. Fishing pressure increased fish communities' temperature affinity in regions experiencing climate warming. Furthermore, climate warming was associated with an increase in weighted mean length and trophic levels of fish communities. Low climate baseline temperature appeared to mitigate the effect of climate warming on temperature affinity and trophic levels. The effect of climate warming on the relative abundance of different trophic classes and size classes both exhibited a nonlinear pattern. The small and relatively large fish species may benefit from climate warming, whereas the medium and largest size groups may be disadvantaged. Our results highlight the urgency of establishing stepping-stone marine protected areas to facilitate the migration of fishes to habitats in a warming ocean. Moreover, reducing human disturbance is crucial to mitigate rapid tropicalization, particularly in vulnerable temperate regions.}, }
@article {pmid38744627, year = {2024}, author = {Kharouba, HM and Williams, JL}, title = {Forecasting species' responses to climate change using space-for-time substitution.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2024.03.009}, pmid = {38744627}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {To anticipate species' responses to climate change, ecologists have largely relied on the space-for-time-substitution (SFTS) approach. However, the hypothesis and its underlying assumptions have been poorly tested. Here, we detail how the efficacy of using the SFTS approach to predict future locations will depend on species' traits, the ecological context, and whether the species is declining or introduced. We argue that the SFTS approach will be least predictive in the contexts where we most need it to be: forecasting the expansion of the range of introduced species and the recovery of threatened species. We highlight how evaluating the underlying assumptions, along with improved methods, will rapidly advance our understanding of the applicability of the SFTS approach, particularly in the context of modelling the distribution of species.}, }
@article {pmid38744055, year = {2024}, author = {Gao, S and Wang, Y}, title = {Aging in climate change: Unpacking residential mobility and changes of social determinants of health in southern United States.}, journal = {Health &amp; place}, volume = {88}, number = {}, pages = {103268}, doi = {10.1016/j.healthplace.2024.103268}, pmid = {38744055}, issn = {1873-2054}, abstract = {The southern coastal states of the United States are susceptible to extreme weather and climate events. With growing move-in and -out older populations in the region, health implications of their residential mobility lack sufficient knowledge. Using 126,352 person-level records from 2012 to 2021, we examined geospatial and temporal patterns of older populations' residential mobility, considering the changing social determinants of health and disparities. We found the moves of older populations with socioeconomic or health disadvantages were related to increased exposure to environmental hazards and reduced access to health resources. The findings inform targeted strategies for climate adaptation that address the needs of vulnerable aging populations.}, }
@article {pmid38743611, year = {2024}, author = {Azuero-Pedraza, CG and Lauri, P and Lessa Derci Augustynczik, A and Thomas, VM}, title = {Managing Forests for Biodiversity Conservation and Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.3c07163}, pmid = {38743611}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {We include biodiversity impacts in forest management decision making by incorporating the countryside species area relationship model into the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM-Forest. We tested three forest management intensities (low, medium, and high) and limited biodiversity loss via an additional constraint on regional species loss. We analyzed two scenarios for climate change mitigation. RCP1.9, the higher mitigation scenario, has more biodiversity loss than the reference RCP7.0, suggesting a trade-off between climate change mitigation, with increased bioenergy use, and biodiversity conservation in forests. This trade-off can be alleviated with biodiversity-conscious forest management by (1) shifting biomass production destined to bioenergy from forests to energy crops, (2) increasing areas under unmanaged secondary forest, (3) reducing forest management intensity, and (4) reallocating biomass production between and within regions. With these mechanisms, it is possible to reduce potential global biodiversity loss by 10% with minor changes in economic outcomes. The global aggregated reduction in biodiversity impacts does not imply that biodiversity impacts are reduced in each ecoregion. We exemplify how to connect an ecologic and an economic model to identify trade-offs, challenges, and possibilities for improved decisions. We acknowledge the limitations of this approach, especially of measuring and projecting biodiversity loss.}, }
@article {pmid38741002, year = {2024}, author = {Lynch, AJ and Embke, HS and Nyboer, EA and Wood, LE and Thorpe, A and Phang, SC and Viana, DF and Golden, CD and Milardi, M and Arlinghaus, R and Baigun, C and Beard, TD and Cooke, SJ and Cowx, IG and Koehn, JD and Lyach, R and Potts, W and Robertson, AM and Schmidhuber, J and Weyl, OLF}, title = {Inland recreational fisheries contribute nutritional benefits and economic value but are vulnerable to climate change.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38741002}, issn = {2662-1355}, abstract = {Inland recreational fishing is primarily considered a leisure-driven activity in freshwaters, yet its harvest can contribute to food systems. Here we estimate that the harvest from inland recreational fishing equates to just over one-tenth of all reported inland fisheries catch globally. The estimated total consumptive use value of inland recreational fish destined for human consumption may reach US$9.95 billion annually. We identify Austria, Canada, Germany and Slovakia as countries above the third quantile for nutrition, economic value and climate vulnerability. These results have important implications for populations dependent on inland recreational fishing for food. Our findings can inform climate adaptation planning for inland recreational fisheries, particularly those not currently managed as food fisheries.}, }
@article {pmid38740825, year = {2024}, author = {Kuśmierczyk-Michulec, J and Baré, J}, title = {Climate change as observed through the IMS radionuclide station in Spitzbergen.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {10906}, pmid = {38740825}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The International Monitoring System (IMS), installed and maintained by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) with the support of States Signatories, is a global system of monitoring stations based on four complementary technologies: seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound and radionuclide. One of the IMS radionuclide stations is located in Spitzbergen, the largest island of the Norwegian Svalbard Archipelago, which borders the Barents Sea and the Northern Atlantic Ocean. It has been demonstrated that signs of climate change are particularly noticeable in that region. As many other radionuclides observed in environmental measurements, [212]Pb is always observed at IMS stations, in varying quantities. This is also the case for the IMS station RN49, Spitzbergen, where it can be demonstrated that the average concentration of the measured lead [212]Pb increases. This is observable specifically October through December. This paper demonstrates the asset of IMS data to study climate change effects. Our conclusions are supported by global temperature anomaly data from NOAA's Global Surface Temperature Analysis, covering the period 1850 to 2023.}, }
@article {pmid38740200, year = {2024}, author = {Li, Q and Gao, X and Li, J and Yan, A and Chang, S and Song, X and Lo, K}, title = {Nonlinear time effects of vegetation response to climate change: Evidence from Qilian Mountain National Park in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173149}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173149}, pmid = {38740200}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Vegetation responses to climate change are typically nonlinear with varied time effects, yet current research lacks comprehensiveness and precise definitions, hindering a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This study focuses on the mountain-type Qilian Mountains National Park (QMNP), investigating the characteristics and patterns of these nonlinear time effects using a generalized additive model (GAM) based on MODIS-NDVI, growing season temperature, and precipitation data. The results show that 1) The time effects of climate change on vegetation exhibit significant spatial variations, differing across vegetation types and topographic conditions. Accounting for optimal time effects can increase the explanatory power of climate on vegetation change by 6.8 %. Precipitation responses are mainly characterized by time-lag and time-accumulation effects, notably in meadows and steppes, while temperature responses are largely cumulative, especially in steppes. The altitude and slope significantly influence the pattern of vegetation response to climate, particularly in areas with high altitudes and steep slopes. 2) There is a significant nonlinear relationship between vegetation growth and both precipitation and temperature, with the nonlinear relationship between precipitation and vegetation being stronger than that with temperature, particularly in the western and central regions of the park. Different vegetation types exhibit significant variations in their response to climate change, with deserts and steppes being more sensitive to precipitation. 3) Precipitation is the primary driver of vegetation change in the QMNP, particularly for high-elevation vegetation and herbaceous vegetation. The complex temporal patterns of vegetation response to climate change in the QMNP not only deepen the understanding of the intricate relationship between regional vegetation and climate variability but also provide a methodological reference for global studies on vegetation responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38739807, year = {2024}, author = {Itoh, H and Yamashita, H and Wada, KC and Yonemaru, JI}, title = {Real-time emulation of future global warming reveals realistic impacts on the phenological response and quality deterioration in rice.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {21}, pages = {e2316497121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2316497121}, pmid = {38739807}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {BAC1004//MAFF | Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Research Council (AFFRC)/ ; }, mesh = {*Oryza/growth &amp; development/genetics ; *Global Warming ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism/analysis ; Agriculture/methods ; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; Temperature ; Transcriptome ; }, abstract = {Decreased production of crops due to climate change has been predicted scientifically. While climate-resilient crops are necessary to ensure food security and support sustainable agriculture, predicting crop growth under future global warming is challenging. Therefore, we aimed to assess the impact of realistic global warming conditions on rice cultivation. We developed a crop evaluation platform, the agro-environment (AE) emulator, which generates diverse environments by implementing the complexity of natural environmental fluctuations in customized, fully artificial lighting growth chambers. We confirmed that the environmental responsiveness of rice obtained in the fluctuation of artificial environments is similar to those exhibited in natural environments by validating our AE emulator using publicly available meteorological data from multiple years at the same location and multiple locations in the same year. Based on the representative concentration pathway, real-time emulation of severe global warming unveiled dramatic advances in the rice life cycle, accompanied by a 35% decrease in grain yield and an 85% increase in quality deterioration, which is higher than the recently reported projections. The transcriptome dynamism showed that increasing temperature and CO2 concentrations synergistically changed the expression of various genes and strengthened the induction of flowering, heat stress adaptation, and CO2 response genes. The predicted severe global warming greatly alters rice environmental adaptability and negatively impacts rice production. Our findings offer innovative applications of artificial environments and insights for enhancing varietal potential and cultivation methods in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38738563, year = {2024}, author = {Teichert, S and Reddin, CJ and Wisshak, M}, title = {In situ decrease in rhodolith growth associated with Arctic climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {e17300}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17300}, pmid = {38738563}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {AB 109/11-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; 269895748//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; //Dr. Hertha und Helmut Schmauser-Stiftung/ ; //Helmholtz Information and Data Science Academy (HIDA)/ ; //Leitstelle Deutsche Forschungsschiffe/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Arctic Regions ; *Rhodophyta/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Temperature ; Seawater/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Rhodoliths built by crustose coralline algae (CCA) are ecosystem engineers of global importance. In the Arctic photic zone, their three-dimensional growth emulates the habitat complexity of coral reefs but with a far slower growth rate, growing at micrometers per year rather than millimeters. While climate change is known to exert various impacts on the CCA's calcite skeleton, including geochemical and structural alterations, field observations of net growth over decade-long timescales are lacking. Here, we use a temporally explicit model to show that rising ocean temperatures over nearly 100 years were associated with reduced rhodolith growth at different depths in the Arctic. Over the past 90 years, the median growth rate was 85 μm year[-1] but each °C increase in summer seawater temperature decreased growth by a mean of 8.9 μm (95% confidence intervals = 1.32-16.60 μm °C[-1], p < .05). The decrease was expressed for rhodolith occurrences in 11 and 27 m water depth but not at 46 m, also having the shortest time series (1991-2015). Although increasing temperatures can spur plant growth, we suggest anthropogenic climate change has either exceeded the population thermal optimum for these CCA, or synergistic effects of warming, ocean acidification, and/or increasing turbidity impair rhodolith growth. Rhodoliths built by calcitic CCA are important habitat providers worldwide, so decreased growth would lead to yet another facet of anthropogenic habitat loss.}, }
@article {pmid38737601, year = {2024}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Neuro-oncology practice}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e4-e6}, pmid = {38737601}, issn = {2054-2577}, }
@article {pmid38736911, year = {2024}, author = {Stoian, IM and Pârvu, S and Minca, DG}, title = {Relationship between Climate Change, Air Pollution and Allergic Diseases Caused by Ambrosia artemisiifolia (Common Ragweed).}, journal = {Maedica}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {94-105}, pmid = {38736911}, issn = {1841-9038}, abstract = {Objective: Influence of climate change and outdoor air pollution (through anthropogenic factors, including heavy traffic, industry and other human activities polluting the environment), which contribute to global warming and increase the allergenicity of some plants (common ragweed) on allergenic patterns, with a direct negative impact on human health, causing or exacerbating allergic respiratory diseases such as bronchial asthma and allergic rhinitis, changing the pattern of respiratory tract infections and premature deaths in Europe. The present study aims to highlight the link between climate change, outdoor air pollution, altered allergenicity of palms and possible behavioural risk factors in the environment. Methods:The clinical studies selected in this research highlighted the links between climate change, air pollutants and the occurrence/exacerbation of aeroallergen-induced respiratory disease; climate change (as an inducer of allergic respiratory disease), increasing global mean ambient air temperature and aeroallergens; climate change, global warming, [CO2] concentration and aeroallergens; climate change, atmospheric humidity, dust storms and aeroallergens; urbanisation (anthropogenic influence), air pollution and aeroallergens; potential of different plant species (common ragweed) for Ni accumulation and possible effects on the human body. Results:The medical implications of increased atmospheric [CO2] concentration are either direct (effect of [CO2] on human physiology and pathophysiology) or indirect (alteration of plant physiology associated with human disease). In an urban area with high [CO2] concentrations, ragweed grows faster, flowers earlier and more intensively, which will lead to increased pollen production compared to rural areas. Over time, climate change leads to changes in allergen (common ragweed) patterns, followed by effects on human health (causing or exacerbating allergic respiratory diseases such as bronchial asthma and allergic rhinitis and changing the pattern of respiratory tract infections). Conclusion:Climate change is changing air pollution patterns, particularly in urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on human health. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change. Lifestyle adjustments are important to mitigate the health effects of air pollution and reduce the occurrence and progression of respiratory diseases.}, }
@article {pmid38736820, year = {2024}, author = {Shaikh, MK and Joshi, A and Mendhe, HG}, title = {Climate change impact on human health and strategies to combat.}, journal = {Journal of family medicine and primary care}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {1121-1122}, doi = {10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_1303_23}, pmid = {38736820}, issn = {2249-4863}, }
@article {pmid38736438, year = {2024}, author = {Gabay, G and Flaishman, MA}, title = {Genetic and molecular regulation of chilling requirements in pear: breeding for climate change resilience.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1347527}, pmid = {38736438}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Pear (Pyrus spp.) is a deciduous fruit tree that requires exposure to sufficient chilling hours during the winter to establish dormancy, followed by favorable heat conditions during the spring for normal vegetative and floral budbreak. In contrast to most temperate woody species, apples and pears of the Rosaceae family are insensitive to photoperiod, and low temperature is the major factor that induces growth cessation and dormancy. Most European pear (Pyrus Communis L.) cultivars need to be grown in regions with high chilling unit (CU) accumulation to ensure early vegetative budbreak. Adequate vegetative budbreak time will ensure suitable metabolite accumulation, such as sugars, to support fruit set and vegetative development, providing the necessary metabolites for optimal fruit set and development. Many regions that were suitable for pear production suffer from a reduction in CU accumulation. According to climate prediction models, many temperate regions currently suitable for pear cultivation will experience a similar accumulation of CUs as observed in Mediterranean regions. Consequently, the Mediterranean region can serve as a suitable location for conducting pear breeding trials aimed at developing cultivars that will thrive in temperate regions in the decades to come. Due to recent climatic changes, bud dormancy attracts more attention, and several studies have been carried out aiming to discover the genetic and physiological factors associated with dormancy in deciduous fruit trees, including pears, along with their related biosynthetic pathways. In this review, current knowledge of the genetic mechanisms associated with bud dormancy in European pear and other Pyrus species is summarized, along with metabolites and physiological factors affecting dormancy establishment and release and chilling requirement determination. The genetic and physiological insights gained into the factors regulating pear dormancy phase transition and determining chilling requirements can accelerate the development of new pear cultivars better suited to both current and predicted future climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38736109, year = {2024}, author = {Joshi, S and Panandikar, M}, title = {Going Green: Climate Change and Health.}, journal = {The Journal of the Association of Physicians of India}, volume = {72}, number = {3}, pages = {11-12}, doi = {10.59556/japi.72.0490}, pmid = {38736109}, issn = {0004-5772}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; India ; Urbanization ; Economic Development ; }, abstract = {The World population doubled from 4 billion humans to 8 billion humans from 1974 to 2022, and it is unlikely to double again. The population of India has now surpassed China, with around 1.4 billion, and we have also already climbed up to become the world's fifth largest economy. Unfortunately, rapid economic development, urbanization, and modernization bring with them deleterious effects on national health, especially if the population does not take preventive measures to protect themselves. Additionally, economic development incorporates rapid industrial and agricultural advances, all of which impact the environment directly.}, }
@article {pmid38735174, year = {2024}, author = {Wat, CCY and Xin, X and Lai, RWS and Mao, X and Leung, KMY}, title = {Impact of environmental factors changes induced by marine heatwaves and heavy precipitation on antibiotic toxicity to Isochrysis galbana: Implications for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {203}, number = {}, pages = {116453}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.116453}, pmid = {38735174}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {Isochrysis galbana, a crucial primary producer and food source in aquatic ecosystems, faces increasing challenges from climate change and emerging contaminants like antibiotics. This study investigates the combined effects of sudden temperature increase (representing marine heatwaves) and rapid salinity change (representing extreme precipitation events) on the toxicity of tetracycline (TC) and oxytetracycline (OTC) to I. galbana. Short-term experiments reveal heightened antibiotic toxicity at 31 °C or salinities of 18 PSU, surpassing algal tolerance limits. Long-term tests show decreased inhibition of algal growth on day 9, indicating algal adaptation to the environment. Analyses of photosynthesis II efficiency, pigment content, and macromolecular composition support this, suggesting adaptation mechanism activation. While algae acclimate to the environment during long-term antibiotic exposure, extreme weather conditions may compromise this adaptation. These findings have implications for managing antibiotics in aquatic environments under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38734671, year = {2024}, author = {Vrselja, I and Pandžić, M and Rihtarić, ML and Ojala, M}, title = {Media exposure to climate change information and pro-environmental behavior: the role of climate change risk judgment.}, journal = {BMC psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {262}, pmid = {38734671}, issn = {2050-7283}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; Aged ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Mass Media/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Judgment ; Croatia ; Anxiety/psychology ; Media Exposure ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine the relationships between exposure to climate change information in traditional and modern media, cognitive and emotional aspects of climate change risk judgment, and pro-environmental behavior (PEB).<br><br>METHOD: A cross-sectional online study was conducted on a quota sample of 1,075 participants (51.9% women) aged 18-79 years. Participants self-reported their exposure to climate change-related information in traditional (e.g. television) and modern media (e.g. social networks), cognitive assessment of climate change risk, level of worry about climate change, and the frequency of PEB.<br><br>RESULTS: Structural equation modeling showed a good fit for the parallel mediation model, involving cognitive risk judgment and worry as mediators between exposure to climate change information in traditional and modern media and PEB. Exposure to climate change information in traditional media had indirect effect on PEB through heightened worry, but not cognitive risk judgment. In contrast, exposure to climate change information in modern media had no indirect effect on PEB.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Since the link between exposure to climate change information in traditional media and PEB has been shown to be mediated by climate change worry, it is important to enhance the coverage of climate change in traditional media in Croatia, taking care to offer solutions to reduce possible negative impact on people's well-being.}, }
@article {pmid38734434, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Strengthened global capacities on climate change and health: WHO training in Madrid.}, journal = {Saudi medical journal}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {545-546}, pmid = {38734434}, issn = {1658-3175}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *World Health Organization ; Global Health ; Spain ; }, }
@article {pmid38734292, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, S and Xiao, Y and Xiao, Z and Li, J and Herrera-Ulloa, A}, title = {Suitable habitat shifts and ecological niche overlay assessments among benthic Oplegnathus species in response to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {119129}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119129}, pmid = {38734292}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Climate change has had a significant impact on many marine organisms. To investigate the effects of environmental changes on deep-water benthic fishes, we selected the genus Oplegnathus and applied species distribution modeling and ecological niche modeling. From the last glacial maximum to the present, the three Oplegnathus species (O. conwayi, O. robinsoni, and O. peaolopesi) distributed in the Cape of Good Hope region of southern Africa experienced fitness zone fluctuations of 39.9%, 13%, and 5.7%, respectively. In contrast, O. fasciatus and O. punctatus, which were primarily distributed in the western Pacific Ocean, had fitness zone fluctuations of -6.5% and 11.7%, respectively. Neither the O. insignis nor the O. woodward varied by more than 5% over the period. Under future environmental conditions, the range of variation in fitness zones for the three southern African Oplegnathus species was expected to be between -30.8% and -26.5%, while the range of variation in fitness zones for the two western Pacific stonefish species was expected to remain below 13%. In addition, the range of variation in the fitness zones of the O. insignis was projected to be between -2.3% and 7.1%, and the range of variation in the fitness zones of the O. woodward is projected to be between -5.7% and -2%. The results indicated that O. fasciatus and O. punctatus had a wide distribution and high expansion potential, while Oplegnathus species might have originated in western Pacific waters. Our results showed that benthic fishes were highly adaptable to extreme environments, such as the last glacial maximum. The high ecological niche overlap between Oplegnathus species in the same region suggested that they competed with each other. Future research could explore the impacts of environmental change on marine organisms and make conservation and management recommendations.}, }
@article {pmid38734081, year = {2024}, author = {González-Herrero, S and Lemus-Canovas, M and Pereira, P}, title = {Climate change in cold regions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {173127}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173127}, pmid = {38734081}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Cold regions around the world include Arctic, Antarctic and High Mountain regions featuring low temperatures, ice-covered landscapes, permafrost, and unique ecologic interrelations. These environments are among the most sensitive to climate change and are changing rapidly as the global climate gets warmer. This editorial explores the complexity of the impacts of climate change on cold regions, highlighting recent changes across Earth system. The Special Issue here presented compiles studies that explore the climate change in different cold regions from various perspectives, including paleoclimatic reconstructions, isotherm shifts and climate projections. Despite progress, significant questions remain, demanding interdisciplinary approaches to better understand the interconnected factors shaping cold regions.}, }
@article {pmid38732040, year = {2024}, author = {Blanca-Reyes, I and Lechuga, V and Llebrés, MT and Carreira, JA and Ávila, C and Cánovas, FM and Castro-Rodríguez, V}, title = {Under Stress: Searching for Genes Involved in the Response of Abies pinsapo Boiss to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {25}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {38732040}, issn = {1422-0067}, support = {TED2021-129691B-I00, PID2021-125040OB-I00//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Stress, Physiological/genetics ; *Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; *Abies/genetics ; Plant Proteins/genetics/metabolism ; Heat-Shock Proteins/genetics/metabolism ; Forests ; }, abstract = {Currently, Mediterranean forests are experiencing the deleterious effects of global warming, which mainly include increased temperatures and decreased precipitation in the region. Relict Abies pinsapo fir forests, endemic in the southern Iberian Peninsula, are especially sensitive to these recent environmental disturbances, and identifying the genes involved in the response of this endangered tree species to climate-driven stresses is of paramount importance for mitigating their effects. Genomic resources for A. pinsapo allow for the analysis of candidate genes reacting to warming and aridity in their natural habitats. Several members of the complex gene families encoding late embryogenesis abundant proteins (LEAs) and heat shock proteins (HSPs) have been found to exhibit differential expression patterns between wet and dry seasons when samples from distinct geographical locations and dissimilar exposures to the effects of climate change were analyzed. The observed changes were more perceptible in the roots of trees, particularly in declining forests distributed at lower altitudes in the more vulnerable mountains. These findings align with previous studies and lay the groundwork for further research on the molecular level. Molecular and genomic approaches offer valuable insights for mitigating climate stress and safeguarding this endangered conifer.}, }
@article {pmid38731762, year = {2024}, author = {Kos, J and Radić, B and Lešić, T and Anić, M and Jovanov, P and Šarić, B and Pleadin, J}, title = {Climate Change and Mycotoxins Trends in Serbia and Croatia: A 15-Year Review.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/foods13091391}, pmid = {38731762}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {This review examines the 15-year presence of mycotoxins in food from Serbia and Croatia to provide a comprehensive overview of trends. Encompassing the timeframe from 2009 to 2023, this study integrates data from both countries and investigates climate change patterns. The results from Serbia focus primarily on maize and milk and show a strong dependence of contamination on weather conditions. However, there is limited data on mycotoxins in cereals other than maize, as well as in other food categories. Conversely, Croatia has a broader spectrum of studies, with significant attention given to milk and maize, along with more research on other cereals, meat, and meat products compared to Serbia. Over the investigated 15-year period, both Serbia and Croatia have experienced notable shifts in climate, including fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, and humidity levels. These changes have significantly influenced agriculture, consequently affecting the occurrence of mycotoxins in various food products. The results summarized in this 15-year review indicate the urgent need for further research and action to address mycotoxins contamination in Serbian and Croatian food supply chains. This urgency is further emphasized by the changing climatic conditions and their potential to exacerbate public health and food safety risks associated with mycotoxins.}, }
@article {pmid38730011, year = {2024}, author = {Phelan, JN and Van Houtven, G and Clark, CM and Buckley, J and Cajka, J and Hargrave, A and Horn, K and Thomas, RQ and Sabo, RD}, title = {Climate change could negate U.S. forest ecosystem service benefits gained through reductions in nitrogen and sulfur deposition.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {10767}, pmid = {38730011}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Nitrogen/metabolism ; *Forests ; *Sulfur/metabolism ; United States ; Trees ; Ecosystem ; Carbon Sequestration ; }, abstract = {Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) impact the health and productivity of forests. Here, we explored the potential impacts of these environmental stressors on ecosystem services provided by future forests in the contiguous U.S. We found that all stand-level services benefitted (+ 2.6 to 8.1%) from reductions in N+S deposition, largely attributable to positive responses to reduced S that offset the net negative effects of lower N levels. Sawtimber responded positively (+ 0.5 to 0.6%) to some climate change, but negatively (- 2.4 to - 3.8%) to the most extreme scenarios. Aboveground carbon (C) sequestration and forest diversity were negatively impacted by all modelled changes in climate. Notably, the most extreme climate scenario eliminated gains in all three services achieved through reduced deposition. As individual tree species responded differently to climate change and atmospheric deposition, associated services unique to each species increased or decreased under future scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change should be considered when evaluating the benefits of N and S air pollution policies on the services provided by U.S. forests.}, }
@article {pmid38729673, year = {2024}, author = {Chaves, LF and Friberg, MD and Pascual, M and Calzada, JE and Luckhart, S and Bergmann, LR}, title = {Community-serving research addressing climate change impacts on vector-borne diseases.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {e334-e341}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00049-4}, pmid = {38729673}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Vector Borne Diseases/prevention &amp; control/epidemiology ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on vector-borne diseases are uneven across human populations. This pattern reflects the effect of changing environments on the biology of transmission, which is also modulated by social and other inequities. These disparities are also linked to research outcomes that could be translated into tools for transmission reduction, but are not necessarily actionable in the communities where transmission occurs. The transmission of vector-borne diseases could be averted by developing research that is both hypothesis-driven and community-serving for populations affected by climate change, where local communities interact as equal partners with scientists, developing and implementing research projects with the aim of improving community health. In this Personal View, we share five principles that have guided our research practice to serve the needs of communities affected by vector-borne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid38728988, year = {2024}, author = {Huang, Y and Long, H and Jiang, Y and Feng, D and Ma, Z and Mumtaz, F}, title = {Motivating factors of farmers' adaptation behaviors to climate change in China: A meta-analysis.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {359}, number = {}, pages = {121105}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121105}, pmid = {38728988}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Adapting to climate change is critical to building sustainable and resilient agricultural systems. Understanding farmers' perceptions of climate change has become the key to the effective implementation of climate change adaptation policies. This research draws multidisciplinary attention to how farmers participate in decision-making on adaptation behaviors and provides useful insights for realizing synergies between environmental change and agricultural production. In this work, we conducted a meta-analysis of 63 quantitative studies on Chinese farmers' adaptation to climate change to assess the relationship between motivational factors and adaptation behavior. Our analysis highlights that farmers' perceptions of precipitation changes are often inaccurate; however, other psychological factors, such as perception, experience, and risk attitude, significantly positively impact their adaptation behavior. In addition, different climate regions are the main source of high heterogeneity in inter-study comparisons of climate change perception, and the effect of climate regions may therefore constitute a moderating factor that weakens the positive relationship between climate change perception and adaptive behavior. Furthermore, this study highlights the need to intervene at the household level to enhance farmers' adaptability to climate change, which includes providing support through income diversification, early warning information services, training, assistance, credit, subsidies, and other resources. In the future, research on how perception, experience, and risk interact to affect adaptive behavior should be strengthened.}, }
@article {pmid38728692, year = {2024}, author = {Rosso, AA and Casement, B and Chung, AK and Curlis, JD and Folfas, E and Gallegos, MA and Neel, LK and Nicholson, DJ and Williams, CE and McMillan, WO and Logan, ML and Cox, CL}, title = {Plasticity of Gene Expression and Thermal Tolerance: Implications for Climate Change Vulnerability in a Tropical Forest Lizard.}, journal = {Ecological and evolutionary physiology}, volume = {97}, number = {2}, pages = {81-96}, doi = {10.1086/729927}, pmid = {38728692}, issn = {2993-7973}, mesh = {Animals ; *Lizards/genetics/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Thermotolerance/genetics ; *Tropical Climate ; Forests ; Acclimatization/genetics/physiology ; Transcriptome ; Gene Expression ; }, abstract = {AbstractTropical ectotherms are thought to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they have evolved in temporally stable thermal environments and therefore have decreased tolerance for thermal variability. Thus, they are expected to have narrow thermal tolerance ranges, live close to their upper thermal tolerance limits, and have decreased thermal acclimation capacity. Although models often predict that tropical forest ectotherms are especially vulnerable to rapid environmental shifts, these models rarely include the potential for plasticity of relevant traits. We measured phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance and thermal preference as well as multitissue transcriptome plasticity in response to warmer temperatures in a species that previous work has suggested is highly vulnerable to climate warming, the Panamanian slender anole lizard (Anolis apletophallus). We found that many genes, including heat shock proteins, were differentially expressed across tissues in response to short-term warming. Under long-term warming, the voluntary thermal maxima of lizards also increased, although thermal preference exhibited only limited plasticity. Using these data, we modeled changes in the activity time of slender anoles through the end of the century under climate change and found that plasticity should delay declines in activity time by at least two decades. Our results suggest that slender anoles, and possibly other tropical ectotherms, can alter the expression of genes and phenotypes when responding to shifting environmental temperatures and that plasticity should be considered when predicting the future of organisms under a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid38727723, year = {2024}, author = {Siwertsson, A and Lindström, U and Aune, M and Berg, E and Skarðhamar, J and Varpe, &#xd8; and Primicerio, R}, title = {Rapid climate change increases diversity and homogenizes composition of coastal fish at high latitudes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {e17273}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17273}, pmid = {38727723}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Framsenteret/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Fishes/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Norway ; *Temperature ; Arctic Regions ; }, abstract = {Rapid warming at high latitudes triggers poleward shifts of species' distributions that impact marine biodiversity. In the open sea, the documented redistributions of fish lead to a borealization of Arctic fauna. A climate-driven borealization and increased species diversity at high latitudes are also expected in coastal fish communities, but they have not been previously documented on a large, biogeographic scale. Here, we investigate the impact of temperature change over the last 25 years on fish communities along the coast of Norway. The study area, spanning different ecoclimatic zones between 62° and 71° N, harbors over 200 species of boreal and Arctic fish. Several of these fish species are harvested by coastal and indigenous communities, influencing settlement geography and livelihood. The long-term data on coastal water temperatures and fish species were obtained from monitoring stations and scientific surveys. Water temperature measured at three fixed sampling stations distributed along the coast show increased temperatures during the study period. The fish species distribution and abundance data were obtained from the annually standardized scientific bottom trawl survey program. Fish species richness, which was highest in the south, increased with warming first in the south and then, gradually, further north, eventually affecting biodiversity in the whole study area. Fish community composition showed a distinct latitudinal pattern early in the study, with Arctic fish species confined to the north and boreal species dominating the south. The poleward shifts eventually eroded this zoogeographic pattern, resulting in more boreal fish species in the north and an increased homogenization of species composition along the Norwegian coast. The climate-driven reorganization of fish communities affects coastal ecosystems that are exposed to fisheries, aquaculture, and other rapidly expanding human activities, stressing the urgent need for a climate adaptation of integrated coastal management.}, }
@article {pmid38727076, year = {2024}, author = {Radua, J and De Prisco, M and Oliva, V and Fico, G and Vieta, E and Fusar-Poli, P}, title = {Impact of air pollution and climate change on mental health outcomes: an umbrella review of global evidence.}, journal = {World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {244-256}, pmid = {38727076}, issn = {1723-8617}, abstract = {The impact of air pollution and climate change on mental health has recently raised strong concerns. However, a comprehensive overview analyzing the existing evidence while addressing relevant biases is lacking. This umbrella review systematically searched the PubMed/Medline, Scopus and PsycINFO databases (up to June 26, 2023) for any systematic review with meta-analysis investigating the association of air pollution or climate change with mental health outcomes. We used the R metaumbrella package to calculate and stratify the credibility of the evidence according to criteria (i.e., convincing, highly suggestive, suggestive, or weak) that address several biases, complemented by sensitivity analyses. We included 32 systematic reviews with meta-analysis that examined 284 individual studies and 237 associations of exposures to air pollution or climate change hazards and mental health outcomes. Most associations (n=195, 82.3%) involved air pollution, while the rest (n=42, 17.7%) regarded climate change hazards (mostly focusing on temperature: n=35, 14.8%). Mental health outcomes in most associations (n=185, 78.1%) involved mental disorders, followed by suicidal behavior (n=29, 12.4%), access to mental health care services (n=9, 3.7%), mental disorders-related symptomatology (n=8, 3.3%), and multiple categories together (n=6, 2.5%). Twelve associations (5.0%) achieved convincing (class I) or highly suggestive (class II) evidence. Regarding exposures to air pollution, there was convincing (class I) evidence for the association between long-term exposure to solvents and a higher incidence of dementia or cognitive impairment (odds ratio, OR=1.139), and highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between long-term exposure to some pollutants and higher risk for cognitive disorders (higher incidence of dementia with high vs. low levels of carbon monoxide, CO: OR=1.587; higher incidence of vascular dementia per 1 μg/m[3] increase of nitrogen oxides, NOx: hazard ratio, HR=1.004). There was also highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between exposure to airborne particulate matter with diameter ≤10 μm (PM10) during the second trimester of pregnancy and the incidence of post-partum depression (OR=1.023 per 1 μg/m[3] increase); and for the association between short-term exposure to sulfur dioxide (SO2) and schizophrenia relapse (risk ratio, RR=1.005 and 1.004 per 1 μg/m[3] increase, respectively 5 and 7 days after exposure). Regarding climate change hazards, there was highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between short-term exposure to increased temperature and suicide- or mental disorders-related mortality (RR=1.024), suicidal behavior (RR=1.012), and hospital access (i.e., hospitalization or emergency department visits) due to suicidal behavior or mental disorders (RR=1.011) or mental disorders only (RR=1.009) (RR values per 1°C increase). There was also highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between short-term exposure to increased apparent temperature (i.e., the temperature equivalent perceived by humans) and suicidal behavior (RR=1.01 per 1°C increase). Finally, there was highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between the temporal proximity of cyclone exposure and severity of symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (r=0.275). Although most of the above associations were small in magnitude, they extend to the entire world population, and are therefore likely to have a substantial impact. This umbrella review classifies and quantifies for the first time the global negative impacts that air pollution and climate change can exert on mental health, identifying evidence-based targets that can inform future research and population health actions.}, }
@article {pmid38725566, year = {2024}, author = {Mondal, S and Martinez-Garcia, R}, title = {Editorial: Climate change and developmental physiology.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1408809}, pmid = {38725566}, issn = {1664-042X}, }
@article {pmid38724902, year = {2024}, author = {Walas, &#x141; and Alipour, S and Haq, SM and Alamri, S}, title = {The potential range of west Asian apple species Malus orientalis Uglitzk. under climate change.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {381}, pmid = {38724902}, issn = {1471-2229}, support = {RSP2024R194//King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia/ ; }, mesh = {*Malus/genetics ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Turkey ; Georgia (Republic) ; Russia ; Iran ; Plant Dispersal ; Armenia ; }, abstract = {The wild relatives of cultivated apples would be an ideal source of diversity for breeding new varieties, which could potentially grow in diverse habitats shaped by climate change. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about the potential distribution of these species. The aim of the presented work was the understand the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution and habitat fragmentation of Caucasian crab apple (Malus orientalis Uglitzk.) and the designation of areas of high interest according to climatic conditions. We used the MaxEnt models and Morphological-Spatial Analysis (MSPA) to evaluate the potential distribution, suitability changes, habitat fragmentation, and connectivity throughout the species range in Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Russia, and Iran. The results revealed that the potentially suitable range of M. orientalis encompasses 858,877 km[2], 635,279 km[2] and 456,795 km[2] under the present, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The range fragmentation analysis demonstrated a notable shift in the edge/core ratio, which increased from 50.95% in the current scenario to even 67.70% in the future. The northern part of the range (Armenia, northern Georgia, southern Russia), as well as the central and western parts of Hyrcania will be a core of the species range with suitable habitats and a high connectivity between M. orientalis populations and could work as major refugia for the studied species. However, in the Zagros and central Turkey, the potential range will shrink due to the lack of suitable climatic conditions, and the edge/core ratio will grow. In the southern part of the range, a decline of M. orientalis habitats is expected due to changing climatic conditions. The future outlook suggests that the Hyrcanian forest and the Caucasus region could serve as important refuges for M. orientalis. This study helps to understand spatial changes in species' range in response to climate change and can help develop conservation strategies. This is all the more important given the species' potential use in future breeding programs aimed at enriching the gene pool of cultivated apple varieties.}, }
@article {pmid38724628, year = {2024}, author = {Shafaati, M and Salehi, M and Zare, M}, title = {The twin challenges of longevity and climate change in controlling antimicrobial resistance.}, journal = {The Journal of antibiotics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38724628}, issn = {1881-1469}, abstract = {Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the global health challenges of the 21st century that is faced with the twin threats of global climate change and greater longevity, which pose a synergistic risk to the management of AMR. Antimicrobial agents are in high demand due to the challenges faced by increasing life expectancy and the dynamic changes in disease ecology prompted by climate change. In light of global aging and climate change, the complexity and importance of addressing antibiotic resistance are further highlighted by this interplay of issues.}, }
@article {pmid38724079, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Climate Change and Skin Health.}, journal = {The Australasian journal of dermatology}, volume = {65 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {29}, doi = {10.1111/ajd.14275}, pmid = {38724079}, issn = {1440-0960}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Skin Diseases/etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid38724044, year = {2024}, author = {Klepac, P and Hsieh, JL and Ducker, CL and Assoum, M and Booth, M and Byrne, I and Dodson, S and Martin, DL and Turner, CMR and van Daalen, KR and Abela, B and Akamboe, J and Alves, F and Brooker, SJ and Ciceri-Reynolds, K and Cole, J and Desjardins, A and Drakeley, C and Ediriweera, DS and Ferguson, NM and Gabrielli, AF and Gahir, J and Jain, S and John, MR and Juma, E and Kanayson, P and Deribe, K and King, JD and Kipingu, AM and Kiware, S and Kolaczinski, J and Kulei, WJ and Laizer, TL and Lal, V and Lowe, R and Maige, JS and Mayer, S and McIver, L and Mosser, JF and Nicholls, RS and Nunes-Alves, C and Panjwani, J and Parameswaran, N and Polson, K and Radoykova, HS and Ramani, A and Reimer, LJ and Reynolds, ZM and Ribeiro, I and Robb, A and Sanikullah, KH and Smith, DRM and Shirima, GG and Shott, JP and Tidman, R and Tribe, L and Turner, J and Vaz Nery, S and Velayudhan, R and Warusavithana, S and Wheeler, HS and Yajima, A and Abdilleh, AR and Hounkpatin, B and Wangmo, D and Whitty, CJM and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Hollingsworth, TD and Solomon, AW and Fall, IS}, title = {Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.}, journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/trstmh/trae026}, pmid = {38724044}, issn = {1878-3503}, support = {INV-030046/GATES/Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation/United States ; /CC/CDC HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.}, }
@article {pmid38723356, year = {2024}, author = {Harifidy, RZ and Hiroshi, I and Harivelo, RZM and Jun, M and Kazuyoshi, S and Keiichi, M}, title = {Assessing future intra-basin water availability in madagascar: Accounting for climate change, population growth, and land use change.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {257}, number = {}, pages = {121711}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2024.121711}, pmid = {38723356}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {The Major River Basins in Madagascar (MRBM) play a crucial role in providing water to the Malagasy population as well as the ecosystem. Little is known about the impact of climate change on these basins, and it is not clear what factors have the most significant impact on them. There are two central objectives of this study: 1. To assess the future potential water available for daily life and agriculture use across the MRBM. 2. To compare the projected change within the MRBM with the historical trends analysis and identify the water-stressed basins. In this paper, a new method for assessing the future available Intra-basin water resources combined with the impacts of climate change, land use, and population is proposed. Three imbalance indicators are introduced to quantify the spatial availability (indicator N°1), distribution (indicator N°2), and variability (indicator N°3) of the Potential Water Resources (PWR) available and have been applied to the MRBM. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, results showed a decreasing trend of the PWR in most of the basins by 2050 with a rise in evapotranspiration and a decline in precipitation. The increasing trend and uneven distribution of the population and agricultural land upstream/downstream are found to cause the reduction of the PWR available per capita (by 37 %) and agriculture area (by 69 %) across the MRBM. This study predicts water scarcity for most of the basins by 2050, especially in the Mangoro and Onilahy Basins. Upstream populations are expected to grow in Mahajamba, Mahavavy, Betsiboka, Manambolo, Tsiribihina, Mangoro, Onilahy, Mananara, and Mandrare basins, along with an expansion of the downstream agricultural land in Sofia, Betsiboka, Manambolo, Mangoky, and Mandrare basins. These findings enhance the cause-effect relationship between climate change, land use change, population growth, and water scarcity in the MRBM. Urgent action is therefore needed for an efficient and sustainable management of these water-stressed basins.}, }
@article {pmid38723064, year = {2024}, author = {Losos, EC and Pfaff, A and Pimm, SL}, title = {Tackling debt, biodiversity loss, and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {384}, number = {6696}, pages = {618-621}, doi = {10.1126/science.ado7418}, pmid = {38723064}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics ; }, abstract = {Experience tells us how to maximize debt-for-nature effectiveness.}, }
@article {pmid38722517, year = {2024}, author = {Bai, Q and Chen, H and Li, G and Zhou, J and Zang, D and Shen, Q}, title = {Research on the impact of climate change on the income gap between urban and rural areas-empirical analysis based on provincial panel data in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38722517}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {SC2022ZD005//Sichuan Office of Philosophy and Social Science/ ; SC22A017//Sichuan Office of Philosophy and Social Science/ ; }, abstract = {Narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas is the key to achieving common prosperity in China. On the basis of analyzing the mechanism of climate change's impact on urban-rural income gap, this article empirically analyzes the impact of climate change on urban-rural income gap using provincial-level panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020. Research indicates that climate change significantly impacts the urban-rural income gap at the 1% significance level, implying that climate change exacerbates the urban-rural income gap. This widening effect varies significantly across different regions, particularly in the western regions and areas with lower fiscal support for agriculture. Further analysis reveals that there is a mediating role between the total agricultural output value and resource mismatch in the impact of climate change on urban-rural income inequality; the digital rural construction plays a regulatory role in the impact of climate change on the urban-rural income gap. On this basis, policy recommendations are proposed to promote the development of climate-resilient agriculture, improve the meteorological forecast and early warning system, increase financial support, and optimize the allocation of agricultural resources.}, }
@article {pmid38721475, year = {2024}, author = {Green, L and Ashton, K and Edmonds, N and Fletcher, M and Azam, S and Hughes, K and Wheater, P and Bellis, MA}, title = {Determining the Public Health Impact of Climate Change: A National Study Using a Health Impact Assessment Approach in Wales.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {69}, number = {}, pages = {1606972}, pmid = {38721475}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Wales ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Objective: Climate change is recognised as the biggest threat to global health of the 21st century and impacts on health and wellbeing through a range of factors. Due to this, the need to take action in order to protect population health and wellbeing is becoming ever more urgent. Methods: In 2019, Public Health Wales carried out a comprehensive mixed-method Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of climate change. Unlike other risk assessments, it appraised the potential impact of climate change on health and inequalities in Wales through participatory workshops, stakeholder consultations, systematic literature reviews and case studies. Results: The HIA findings indicate potential impacts across the wider determinants of health and wellbeing. For example, air quality, excess heat/cold, flooding, economic productivity, infrastructure, and community resilience. A range of impacts were identified across population groups, settings, and geographical areas. Conclusion: These findings can inform decision-makers to prepare for climate change plans and policies using an evidence-informed approach. The work has demonstrated the value of a HIA approach by mobilising a range of evidence through a transparent process, resulting in transferrable learning for others.}, }
@article {pmid38721315, year = {2024}, author = {Leka, J and Furnham, A}, title = {Correlates of climate change skepticism.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1328307}, pmid = {38721315}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {While much research has examined the correlates of climate change beliefs from an alarmist perspective, less work has systematically measured climate change skepticism. This study aims to create a comprehensive tool capturing climate skeptics' beliefs and test its association with individual difference variables. 502 European adults completed a 22-item questionnaire on climate change (CC) skepticism as well as measures of ambiguity tolerance, belief in a just world (BJW), dark-side personality traits, and self-esteem. Principal components analysis revealed a four dimension structure of CC. Political ideology was the most consistent and significant predictor across the climate change skepticism factors. Dark-side traits, also played a role. Future research should further validate this measure and explore how climate change information could be tailored to different audiences. Understanding the nuances and causes of climate skepticism can enable more effective communication to promote sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid38720737, year = {2024}, author = {Mummed, BA and Seleshi, Y}, title = {Assessment of the effects of climate change on water balance components in the upper Erer subbasin, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e30297}, pmid = {38720737}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Eastern Ethiopia watersheds are located in transition zone from Arid to semi-humid climate and in expanding to westwards the west annual rainfall is highly declining. This paper explains future hydrological response impacts under changing climate using ensemble average of the CORDEX RCMs for historical (1979-2014) and future (2024-2070) periods. The result revels the monthly average temperature varies (0.04-6.25°C) for RCP-4.5, while it varies (0.03-6.59°oC) for RCP-8.5. The monthly average rainfall to be decline by 90.71 mm and rise by 211. 22 mm for RCP-4.5, while it is going to decline by 84.97 mm and rise by 235.62 mm for RCP-8.5. The adjusted SWAT model was used to detect the changes of projected hydrological response from reference period. Balance components of the baseline period was compared to future period. The result shows the change in decrease of annual mean surface flow (4.98 %-5.63 %), groundwater flow (5.63 %-6.68 %), evapotranspiration (2.45 %-2.57 %) and water yield (5.54 %-5.21 %) to be expected from RCP-4.5 to RCP-8.5. The findings of this paper provide valuable assistance to water resource planners by enhancing their comprehension of change in climate effects at local level.}, }
@article {pmid38719294, year = {2024}, author = {Karim, N and Hod, R and Wahab, MIA and Ahmad, N}, title = {Projecting non-communicable diseases attributable to air pollution in the climate change era: a systematic review.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e079826}, doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2023-079826}, pmid = {38719294}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Humans ; *Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Climate change is a major global issue with significant consequences, including effects on air quality and human well-being. This review investigated the projection of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to air pollution under different climate change scenarios.<br><br>DESIGN: This systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 flow checklist. A population-exposure-outcome framework was established. Population referred to the general global population of all ages, the exposure of interest was air pollution and its projection, and the outcome was the occurrence of NCDs attributable to air pollution and burden of disease (BoD) based on the health indices of mortality, morbidity, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost and years lived with disability.<br><br>DATA SOURCES: The Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE and EBSCOhost databases were searched for articles published from 2005 to 2023.<br><br>The eligible articles were evaluated using the modified scale of a checklist for assessing the quality of ecological studies.<br><br>DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two reviewers searched, screened and selected the included studies independently using standardised methods. The risk of bias was assessed using the modified scale of a checklist for ecological studies. The results were summarised based on the projection of the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution.<br><br>RESULTS: This review included 11 studies from various countries. Most studies specifically investigated various air pollutants, specifically particulate matter <2.5 &#xb5;m (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides and ozone. The studies used coupled-air quality and climate modelling approaches, and mainly projected health effects using the concentration-response function model. The NCDs attributable to air pollution included cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, coronary heart disease and lower respiratory infections. Notably, the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution was projected to decrease in a scenario that promotes reduced air pollution, carbon emissions and land use and sustainable socioeconomics. Contrastingly, the BoD of NCDs was projected to increase in a scenario involving increasing population numbers, social deprivation and an ageing population.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The included studies widely reported increased premature mortality, CVD and respiratory disease attributable to PM2.5. Future NCD projection studies should consider emission and population changes in projecting the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution in the climate change era.<br><br>PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42023435288.}, }
@article {pmid38718017, year = {2024}, author = {, }, title = {Correction: Seasonality, climate change, and food security during pregnancy among Indigenous and non-Indigenous women in rural Uganda: Implications for maternal-infant health.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {e0303592}, pmid = {38718017}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247198.].}, }
@article {pmid38717995, year = {2024}, author = {Schön, J and Gentsch, N and Breunig, P}, title = {Cover crops support the climate change mitigation potential of agroecosystems.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {e0302139}, pmid = {38717995}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; *Zea mays/growth &amp; development ; *Agriculture/methods/economics ; *Ecosystem ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Cover crops have the potential to mitigate climate change by reducing negative impacts of agriculture on ecosystems. This study is first to quantify the net climate change mitigation impact of cover crops including land-use effects. A systematic literature and data review was conducted to identify major drivers for climate benefits and costs of cover crops in maize (Zea maize L.) production systems. The results indicate that cover crops lead to a net climate change mitigation impact (NCCMI) of 3.30 Mg CO2e ha-1 a-1. We created four scenarios with different impact weights of the drivers and all of them showing a positive NCCMI. Carbon land benefit, the carbon opportunity costs based on maize yield gains following cover crops, is the major contributor to the NCCMI (34.5% of all benefits). Carbon sequestration is the second largest contributor (33.8%). The climate costs of cover crops are mainly dominated by emissions from their seed production and foregone benefits due to land use for cover crops seeds. However, these two costs account for only 15.8% of the benefits. Extrapolating these results, planting cover crops before all maize acreage in the EU results in a climate change mitigation of 49.80 million Mg CO2e a-1, which is equivalent to 13.0% of the EU's agricultural emissions. This study highlights the importance of incorporating cover crops into sustainable cropping systems to minimize the agricultural impact to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38717703, year = {2024}, author = {Navrátil, T and Rohovec, J and Nováková, T and Roll, M and Cudlín, P and Oulehle, F}, title = {Quarter century of mercury litterfall at a coniferous forest responding to climate change, Central Europe.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38717703}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {20-14292S//Grantov&#xe1; Agentura &#x10c;esk&#xe9; Republiky/ ; }, abstract = {This work evaluated the 25-year-long trends (1994-2018) in mercury (Hg) concentrations and fluxes in spruce litterfall at a forest research plot Načetín (NAC) recovering from acidic deposition in the Ore Mountains, Czech Republic. The mean litterfall Hg deposition averaged 51 ± 18 µg m[-2] year[-1], which has been the highest litterfall Hg deposition reported up to date on the European continent. In contrast, the wet deposition (2017-2019) was an order of magnitude lower averaging at 2.5 ± 1.5 µg m[-2] year[-1]. All the spruce litterfall components bark, twigs, needles, cones, and a mixture of unidentified fragments had elevated mean Hg concentrations relative to background sites averaging 256 ± 77, 234 ± 62, 119 ± 23, 95 ± 14, and 44 ± 15 µg kg[-1], respectively. Elevated litterfall Hg deposition and concentrations were attributed to the nearby local Hg emission source-coal-fired power plants. Temporally, the decrease of Czech Hg emissions since the 1990s was reflected by the decreasing trend of Hg concentrations in litterfall bark, cones, and twigs, while in needles and other material, Hg increased but insignificantly. Total litterfall ratios of Hg/C, Hg/N, and Hg/S were lower than those in soil O horizons averaging at 0.23 ± 0.04, 9.5 ± 2.0, and 170 ± 37 μg g[-1], respectively. Since the beginning of monitoring, total litterfall Hg/C exhibited no trend, Hg/N decreased, and Hg/S increased. The litterfall biomass deposition averaging at 469 ± 176 g m[-2] year[-1] increased through time resulting in an increased Hg litterfall deposition at NAC by 1.1 µg m[-2] year[-1] despite the decreases in Czech Hg emissions. Peaks of annual litterfall Hg deposition up to 96 µg m[-2] year[-1] at NAC during the 25 years of monitoring resulted from weather extremes such as rime-snow accumulation, wind gusts, droughts, and insect infestation, which all significantly affected the annual biomass deposition. Based on our observations, further increases in biomass and litterfall Hg deposition rates can be expected due to the onset of bark beetle infestation and the increasing number of droughts caused by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38717262, year = {2024}, author = {Zhao, Z and Yang, L and Long, J and Chang, Z and Chen, X}, title = {Predicting suitable areas for Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) under climate change and implications for management.}, journal = {Journal of insect science (Online)}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {38717262}, issn = {1536-2442}, support = {32060343//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2021YFD1601000//Science Technology Program of GTC/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; *Animal Distribution ; Hemiptera/physiology ; Insect Control/methods ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a prominent factor reshaping the distribution of invasive species. Metcalfa pruinosa (Say 1830) (Hemiptera: Flatidae), native to North America, has invaded other continents and poses a serious threat to various agricultural crops and the human residential environment. Understanding the distribution of M. pruinosa based on climatic conditions is a critical first step to prevent its further invasion. Therefore, based on its occurrence records and associated environmental variables, a Maxent model was developed to predict suitable areas for this species in the present and future on a global scale. The model exhibited outstanding performance, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and true skill statistic values of 0.9329 and 0.926, respectively. The model also indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12) and max temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) were the key environmental variables limiting the distribution of M. pruinosa. Moreover, the model revealed that the current suitable area is 1.01 × 107 km2 worldwide, with southern China, southern Europe, and the eastern United States predicted to be the primary and highly suitable areas in the latter 2 regions. This area is expected to increase under future climate scenarios, mainly in the northern direction. The study's findings contribute to our understanding of climate change's impact on M. pruinosa distribution, and they will aid governments in developing appropriate pest management strategies, including global monitoring and strict quarantine measures.}, }
@article {pmid38715728, year = {2024}, author = {Synolakis, CE and Karagiannis, GM}, title = {Wildfire risk management in the era of climate change.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {pgae151}, pmid = {38715728}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {The August 8, 2023R Lahaina fire refocused attention on wildfires, public alerts, and emergency management. Wildfire risk is on the rise, precipitated through a combination of climate change, increased development in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), decades of unmitigated biomass accumulation in forests, and a long history of emphasis on fire suppression over hazard mitigation. Stemming the tide of wildfire death and destruction will involve bringing together diverse scientific disciplines into policy. Renewed emphasis is needed on emergency alerts and community evacuations. Land management strategies need to account for the impact of climate change and hazard mitigation on forest ecosystems. Here, we propose a long-term strategy consisting of integrating wildfire risk management in wider-scope forest land management policies and strategies, and we discuss new technologies and possible scientific breakthroughs.}, }
@article {pmid38714754, year = {2024}, author = {McCann, SR}, title = {Climate change in wine and haematology.}, journal = {Bone marrow transplantation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38714754}, issn = {1476-5365}, }
@article {pmid38713689, year = {2024}, author = {Kephe, PN and Mkuhlani, S and Rusere, F and Chemura, A}, title = {Use of modelling tools to assess climate change impacts on smallholder oil seed yields in South Africa.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {e0301254}, pmid = {38713689}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; South Africa ; Seeds/growth &amp; development ; Glycine max/growth &amp; development ; Helianthus/growth &amp; development ; Models, Theoretical ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Plant Oils ; Agriculture/methods ; }, abstract = {Oil seed crops are the second most important field crops after cereals in the agricultural economy globally. The use and demand for oilseed crops such as groundnut, soybean and sunflower have grown significantly, but climate change is expected to alter the agroecological conditions required for oilseed crop production. This study aims to present an approach that utilizes decision-making tools to assess the potential climate change impacts on groundnut, soybean and sunflower yields and the greenhouse gas emissions from the management of the crops. The Decision Support Tool for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v4.7), a dynamic crop model and the Cool Farm Tool, a GHG calculator, was used to simulate yields and estimate GHG emissions from these crops, respectively. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), three nitrogen (0, 75, and 150 kg/ha) and phosphorous (0, 30 and 60 P kg/ha) fertilizer rates at three sites in Limpopo, South Africa (Ofcolaco, Syferkuil and Punda Maria) were used in field trials for calibrating the models. The highest yield was achieved by sunflower across all crops, years and sites. Soybean yield is projected to decrease across all sites and scenarios by 2030 and 2050, except at Ofcolaco, where yield increases of at least 15.6% is projected under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Positive climate change impacts are predicted for groundnut at Ofcolaco and Syferkuil by 2030 and 2050, while negative impacts with losses of up to 50% are projected under RCP8.5 by 2050 at Punda Maria. Sunflower yield is projected to decrease across all sites and scenarios by 2030 and 2050. A comparison of the climate change impacts across sites shows that groundnut yield is projected to increase under climate change while notable yield losses are projected for sunflower and soybean. GHG emissions from the management of each crop showed that sunflower and groundnut production had the highest and lowest emissions across all sites respectively. With positive climate change impacts, a reduction of GHG emissions per ton per hectare was projected for groundnuts at Ofcolaco and Syferkuil and for sunflower in Ofcolaco in the future. However, the carbon footprint from groundnut is expected to increase by 40 to 107% in Punda Maria for the period up to 2030 and between 70-250% for 2050, with sunflower following a similar trend. We conclude that climate change will potentially reduce yield for oilseed crops while management will increase emissions. Therefore, in designing adaptation measures, there is a need to consider emission effects to gain a holistic understanding of how both climate change impacts on crops and mitigation efforts could be targeted.}, }
@article {pmid38710846, year = {2024}, author = {Brini, R and Toumi, H and Chaouech, O and Toumi, S and Alfalih, AA}, title = {Unveiling asymmetry impacts of economic policy uncertainty on climate change: fresh insights into African Countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38710846}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {..../2023//Majmaah University/ ; }, abstract = {This study investigates the influence of economic policy uncertainty on climate change in selected African countries within asymmetric settings. Although previous research has examined the impact of various economic factors on climate change, the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty have not been thoroughly explored, particularly in African countries. We analyze annual data spanning from 1980 to 2017 by utilizing three models: Panel Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL-PMG), Panel Pooled Mean Group-non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL-PMG), and Dumitrescu-Hurlin asymmetric causality tests. According to the results of ARDL-PMG estimation, economic policy uncertainty has a detrimental impact on climate change in the long run. However, the NARDL-PMG estimation suggests that a positive shock in economic policy uncertainty negatively affects long-term climate change mitigation. However, a negative shock has a beneficial effect on climate change in the long term. In African nations, positive and negative changes in economic policy uncertainty failed to generate any significant climate change effects in the short run. The results also reveal that both positive and negative shocks in economic policy may cause climate change in a one-way direction. Based on the findings of our study, we recommend that African policymakers implement programs aimed at reducing economic policy uncertainties to help mitigate the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38710767, year = {2024}, author = {Sarkar, SK and Rudra, RR and Talukdar, S and Das, PC and Nur, MS and Alam, E and Islam, MK and Islam, ARMT}, title = {Future groundwater potential mapping using machine learning algorithms and climate change scenarios in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {10328}, pmid = {38710767}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The aim of the study was to estimate future groundwater potential zones based on machine learning algorithms and climate change scenarios. Fourteen parameters (i.e., curvature, drainage density, slope, roughness, rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, lineament density, land use and land cover, general soil types, geology, geomorphology, topographic position index (TPI), topographic wetness index (TWI)) were used in developing machine learning algorithms. Three machine learning algorithms (i.e., artificial neural network (ANN), logistic model tree (LMT), and logistic regression (LR)) were applied to identify groundwater potential zones. The best-fit model was selected based on the ROC curve. Representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 2.5, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 climate scenarios of precipitation were used for modeling future climate change. Finally, future groundwater potential zones were identified for 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040 based on the best machine learning model and future RCP models. According to findings, ANN shows better accuracy than the other two models (AUC: 0.875). The ANN model predicted that 23.10 percent of the land was in very high groundwater potential zones, whereas 33.50 percent was in extremely high groundwater potential zones. The study forecasts precipitation values under different climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) for 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040 using an ANN model and shows spatial distribution maps for each scenario. Finally, sixteen scenarios were generated for future groundwater potential zones. Government officials may utilize the study's results to inform evidence-based choices on water management and planning at the national level.}, }
@article {pmid38710580, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, J and Luo, X and Ding, Q}, title = {How does climate change risk affect energy poverty? International evidence.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.14316}, pmid = {38710580}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {2024JJ4074//Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation Outstanding Youth Project/ ; 72104253//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 72204270//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2023CXQD037//Innovation Driven Project of Central South University/ ; 2022znzk03//High-end Think Tank Project of Central South University/ ; }, abstract = {Based on cross-country data from 2002 to 2019, we explore the impact of climate change risk (CCR) on energy poverty (EP), and the moderating role in the CCR-EP nexus is also discussed. The empirical results suggest that CCR can exacerbate EP, especially for rural areas. Moderating effect analysis shows that financial development, technological innovation, and adaptation readiness can modify the negative impacts of CCR on EP to some extent. Moreover, the impact of CCR on EP is heterogeneous, demonstrating that CCR is more likely to exacerbate EP in countries with low economic development, low economic freedom, high carbon intensity, and the Africa region. Our findings emphasize the challenge of balancing EP alleviation with climate change response and provide the policy guidance to promote coordinated development of CCR management and energy supply security.}, }
@article {pmid38709740, year = {2024}, author = {Blais, BR and Koprowski, JL}, title = {Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {e0302981}, pmid = {38709740}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Predatory Behavior ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)-an important riparian predator guild-in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.}, }
@article {pmid38708565, year = {2024}, author = {Wittemann, M and Mujawamariya, M and Ntirugulirwa, B and Uwizeye, FK and Zibera, E and Manzi, OJL and Nsabimana, D and Wallin, G and Uddling, J}, title = {Plasticity and implications of water-use traits in contrasting tropical tree species under climate change.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {176}, number = {3}, pages = {e14326}, doi = {10.1111/ppl.14326}, pmid = {38708565}, issn = {1399-3054}, support = {2015-03338//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det/ ; 2018-04669//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det/ ; 2015-1458//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; 2020-01497//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; }, mesh = {*Water/metabolism/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Trees/physiology/growth &amp; development ; *Tropical Climate ; *Plant Leaves/physiology ; *Droughts ; Plant Stomata/physiology ; Acclimatization/physiology ; Plant Transpiration/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Plants face a trade-off between hydraulic safety and growth, leading to a range of water-use strategies in different species. However, little is known about such strategies in tropical trees and whether different water-use traits can acclimate to warming. We studied five water-use traits in 20 tropical tree species grown at three different altitudes in Rwanda (RwandaTREE): stomatal conductance (gs), leaf minimum conductance (gmin), plant hydraulic conductance (Kplant), leaf osmotic potential (ψo) and net defoliation during drought. We also explored the links between these traits and growth and mortality data. Late successional (LS) species had low Kplant, gs and gmin and, thus, low water loss, while low ψo helped improve leaf water status during drought. Early successional (ES) species, on the contrary, used more water during both moist and dry conditions and exhibited pronounced drought defoliation. The ES strategy was associated with lower mortality and more pronounced growth enhancement at the warmer sites compared to LS species. While Kplant and gmin showed downward acclimation in warmer climates, ψo did not acclimate and gs measured at prevailing temperature did not change. Due to distinctly different water use strategies between successional groups, ES species may be better equipped for a warmer climate as long as defoliation can bridge drought periods.}, }
@article {pmid38706047, year = {2024}, author = {Ullah, H and Fordham, DA and Goldenberg, SU and Nagelkerken, I}, title = {Combining mesocosms with models reveals effects of global warming and ocean acidification on a temperate marine ecosystem.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e2977}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2977}, pmid = {38706047}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {FT120100183//Australian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Ocean warming and species exploitation have already caused large-scale reorganization of biological communities across the world. Accurate projections of future biodiversity change require a comprehensive understanding of how entire communities respond to global change. We combined a time-dynamic integrated food web modeling approach (Ecosim) with previous data from community-level mesocosm experiments to determine the independent and combined effects of ocean warming, ocean acidification and fisheries exploitation on a well-managed temperate coastal ecosystem. The mesocosm parameters enabled important physiological and behavioral responses to climate stressors to be projected for trophic levels ranging from primary producers to top predators, including sharks. Through model simulations, we show that under sustainable rates of fisheries exploitation, near-future warming or ocean acidification in isolation could benefit species biomass at higher trophic levels (e.g., mammals, birds, and demersal finfish) in their current climate ranges, with the exception of small pelagic fishes. However, under warming and acidification combined, biomass increases at higher trophic levels will be lower or absent, while in the longer term reduced productivity of prey species is unlikely to support the increased biomass at the top of the food web. We also show that increases in exploitation will suppress any positive effects of human-driven climate change, causing individual species biomass to decrease at higher trophic levels. Nevertheless, total future potential biomass of some fisheries species in temperate areas might remain high, particularly under acidification, because unharvested opportunistic species will likely benefit from decreased competition and show an increase in biomass. Ecological indicators of species composition such as the Shannon diversity index decline under all climate change scenarios, suggesting a trade-off between biomass gain and functional diversity. By coupling parameters from multilevel mesocosm food web experiments with dynamic food web models, we were able to simulate the generative mechanisms that drive complex responses of temperate marine ecosystems to global change. This approach, which blends theory with experimental data, provides new prospects for forecasting climate-driven biodiversity change and its effects on ecosystem processes.}, }
@article {pmid38703181, year = {2024}, author = {Goldust, M and Grant-Kels, JM}, title = {Using AI to help address skin health challenges caused by climate change.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.17222}, pmid = {38703181}, issn = {1365-4632}, }
@article {pmid38702853, year = {2024}, author = {Cretini, C and Galloway, KA}, title = {Acidic Apple Snails: Effects of Climate Change on The Mechanical Properties of An Invasive Gastropod.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icae013}, pmid = {38702853}, issn = {1557-7023}, abstract = {Climate change can directly and indirectly affect species distribution. Warming may allow for invasive species, such as apple snails, to migrate to higher latitudes where temperatures are more conducive to their survival and invasion success. Higher temperatures and lower pH ranges have been previously documented to affect the form and function of calcium carbonate shells, which serve many functions including protection from predators and thermoregulation. This study aimed to quantify differences in the morphology and mechanical properties of invasive apple snail, Pomacea maculata, shells after altering temperature and pH. We mechanically tested shells among three five-week treatments: control, higher temperature, lower pH. Ultimate Strength increased in shells that were exposed to higher temperatures, but Young's Modulus and Peak Load did not differ among control, temperature, and pH treatments. Apple snails in higher temperature tanks increased their shell length over the five-week trials, while snails in lower pH tanks decreased their shell length. Although snail morphometrics did not differ between sexes, male shells exhibited a higher Peak Load, Young's Modulus, and Ultimate Strength compared to female shells. Our findings are consistent with previous gastropod studies, in that a lower pH is associated with a decrease in shell size, and higher temperatures yield larger snail shells with a higher Ultimate Strength. Peak Load did not significantly differ among treatments, which suggests that the cross-sectional area is relatively important when considering this species mechanical performance today and in future climates. Due to the intense nutritional and calcium demands of egg production, female snails may be more susceptible to weakened shells due to low pH environments caused by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38702704, year = {2024}, author = {Foláyan, MNO and Schroth, RJ and Abodunrin, O and Al-Batayneh, OB and Arheiam, A and Mfolo, T and Virtanen, JI and Duangthip, D and Feldens, CA and El Tantawi, M}, title = {Early childhood caries, climate change and the sustainable development goal 13: a scoping review.}, journal = {BMC oral health}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {524}, pmid = {38702704}, issn = {1472-6831}, mesh = {Humans ; *Dental Caries/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; *Sustainable Development ; Child, Preschool ; Child ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Sustainable development goal 13 centres on calls for urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. The aim of this scoping review was to map the published literature for existing evidence on the association between the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 and early childhood caries (ECC).<br><br>METHODS: The scoping review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines. In August 2023, a search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus using search terms related to SDG13 and ECC. Only English language publications were extracted. There was no restriction on the type of publications included in the study. A summary of studies that met the inclusion criteria was conducted highlighting the countries where the studies were conducted, the study designs employed, the journals (dental/non-dental) in which the studies were published, and the findings. In addition, the SDG13 indicators to which the study findings were linked was reported.<br><br>RESULTS: The initial search yielded 113 potential publications. After removing 57 duplicated papers, 56 publications underwent title and abstract screening, and two studies went through full paper review. Four additional papers were identified from websites and searching the references of the included studies. Two of the six retrieved articles were from India, and one was China, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom respectively. One paper was based on an intervention simulation study, two reported findings from archeologic populations and three papers that were commentaries/opinions. In addition, four studies were linked to SDG 13.1 and they suggested an increased risk for caries with climate change. Two studies were linked to SDG 13.2 and they suggested that the practice of pediatric dentistry contributes negatively to environmental degradation. One study provided evidence on caries prevention management strategies in children that can reduce environmental degradation.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The evidence on the links between SDG13 and ECC suggests that climate change may increase the risk for caries, and the management of ECC may increase environmental degradation. However, there are caries prevention strategies that can reduce the negative impact of ECC management on the environment. Context specific and inter-disciplinary research is needed to generate evidence for mitigating the negative bidirectional relationships between SDG13 and ECC.}, }
@article {pmid38702432, year = {2024}, author = {Sharifian, S and Mortazavi, MS and Mohebbi Nozar, SL}, title = {Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {10177}, pmid = {38702432}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Fishes/physiology ; Temperature ; Fisheries ; }, abstract = {The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.}, }
@article {pmid38701329, year = {2024}, author = {Prabhakar, C and Sondekoppam, RV and Ip, VHY}, title = {The science of climate change and the effect of anaesthetic gas emissions: a reply.}, journal = {Anaesthesia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/anae.16303}, pmid = {38701329}, issn = {1365-2044}, }
@article {pmid38699931, year = {2024}, author = {Richards, D and Dewhurst, Z and Giltrap, D and Lavorel, S}, title = {Tree contributions to climate change adaptation through reduced cattle heat stress and benefits to milk and beef production.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {e17306}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17306}, pmid = {38699931}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {C09X2209//Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Milk ; *Trees ; New Zealand ; Heat-Shock Response ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Cattle heat stress causes billions of dollars' worth of losses to meat and milk production globally, and is projected to become more severe in the future due to climate change. Tree establishment in pastoral livestock systems holds potential to reduce cattle heat stress and thus provide nature-based adaptation. We developed a general model for the impact of trees on cattle heat stress, which can project milk and meat production under future climate scenarios at varying spatial scales. The model incorporates the key microclimate mechanisms influenced by trees, including shade, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed. We conducted sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the relative influence of different mechanisms through which trees can impact cattle heat stress, and how tree impacts are influenced by climatic context globally. Trees hold the greatest potential to reduce cattle heat stress in higher latitudes and altitudes, with minor benefits in the lowland tropics. We projected the future contributions of current trees in mitigating climate change impacts on the dairy and beef herds of Aotearoa-New Zealand (A-NZ) in 2070-2080. Trees were simulated to contribute to A-NZ milk yields by over 491 million liters (lower CI = 112 million liters, upper CI = 850 million liters), and meat yields by over 8316 tonnes (lower CI = 2431 tonnes, upper CI = 13,668 tonnes) annually. The total economic contribution of existing trees in mitigating future cattle heat stress was valued at $US 244 million (lower CI = $US 58 million, upper CI = $US 419 million). Our findings demonstrate the importance of existing trees in pastoral landscapes and suggest that strategic tree establishment can be a valuable adaptation option for reducing cattle heat stress under climate change. Tree establishment in the next few years is critical to provide adaptation capacity and economic benefit in future decades.}, }
@article {pmid38697599, year = {2024}, author = {Niu, YL and Lu, F and Liu, XJ and Wang, J and Liu, L and Liu, QY and Yang, J}, title = {Global climate change: Effects of future temperatures on emergency department visits for mental disorders in Beijing, China.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {252}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {119044}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119044}, pmid = {38697599}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Rising temperatures can increase the risk of mental disorders. As climate change intensifies, the future disease burden due to mental disorders may be underestimated. Using data on the number of daily emergency department visits for mental disorders at 30 hospitals in Beijing, China during 2016-2018, the relationship between daily mean temperature and such visits was assessed using a quasi-Poisson model integrated with a distributed lag nonlinear model. Emergency department visits for mental disorders attributed to temperature changes were projected using 26 general circulation models under four climate change scenarios. Stratification analyses were then conducted by disease subtype, sex, and age. The results indicate that the temperature-related health burden from mental disorders was projected to increase consistently throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by high temperatures. The future temperature-related health burden was higher for patients with mental disorders due to the use of psychoactive substances and schizophrenia as well as for women and those aged <65 years. These findings enhance our knowledge of how climate change could affect mental well-being and can be used to advance and refine targeted approaches to mitigating and adapting to climate change with a view on addressing mental disorders.}, }
@article {pmid38697568, year = {2024}, author = {Bertucci, JI and Blanco Osorio, A and Vidal-Liñán, L and Bellas, J}, title = {Developmental and Biochemical Markers of the Impact of Pollutant Mixtures Under the Effect of Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {142162}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2024.142162}, pmid = {38697568}, issn = {1879-1298}, abstract = {This study investigates the combined impact of microplastics (MP) and Chlorpyriphos (CPF) on sea urchin larvae (Paracentrotus lividus) under the backdrop of ocean warming and acidification. While the individual toxic effects of these pollutants have been previously reported, their combined effects remain poorly understood. Two experiments were conducted using different concentrations of CPF (EC10 and EC50) based on previous studies from our group. MP were adsorbed in CPF to simulate realistic environmental conditions. Additionally, water acidification and warming protocols were implemented to mimic future ocean conditions. Sea urchin embryo toxicity tests were conducted to assess larval development under various treatment combinations of CPF, MP, ocean acidification (OA), and temperature (OW). Morphometric measurements and biochemical analyses were performed to evaluate the effects comprehensively. Results indicate that combined stressors lead to significant morphological alterations, such as increased larval width and reduced stomach volume. Furthermore, biochemical biomarkers like acetylcholinesterase (AChE), glutathione S-transferase (GST), and glutathione reductase (GRx) activities were affected, indicating oxidative stress and impaired detoxification capacity. Interestingly, while temperature increase was expected to enhance larval growth, it instead induced thermal stress, resulting in lower growth rates. This underscores the importance of considering multiple stressors in ecological assessments. Biochemical biomarkers provided early indications of stress responses, complementing traditional growth measurements. The study highlights the necessity of holistic approaches when assessing environmental impacts on marine ecosystems. Understanding interactions between pollutants and environmental stressors is crucial for effective conservation strategies. Future research should delve deeper into the impacts at lower biological levels and explore adaptive mechanisms in marine organisms facing multiple stressors. By doing so, we can better anticipate and mitigate the adverse effects of anthropogenic pollutants on marine biodiversity and ecosystem health.}, }
@article {pmid38696933, year = {2024}, author = {Coulon, N and Pilet, S and Lizé, A and Lacoue-Labarthe, T and Sturbois, A and Toussaint, A and Feunteun, E and Carpentier, A}, title = {Shark critical life stage vulnerability to monthly temperature variations under climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {198}, number = {}, pages = {106531}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106531}, pmid = {38696933}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {In a 10-month experimental study, we assessed the combined impact of warming and acidification on critical life stages of small-spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula). Using recently developed frameworks, we disentangled individual and group responses to two climate scenarios projected for 2100 (SSP2-4.5: Middle of the road and SSP5-8.5: Fossil-fueled Development). Seasonal temperature fluctuations revealed the acute vulnerability of embryos to summer temperatures, with hatching success ranging from 82% for the control and SSP2-4.5 treatments to only 11% for the SSP5-8.5 treatment. The death of embryos was preceded by distinct individual growth trajectories between the treatments, and also revealed inter-individual variations within treatments. Embryos with the lowest hatching success had lower yolk consumption rates, and growth rates associated with a lower energy assimilation, and almost all of them failed to transition to internal gills. Within 6 months after hatching, no additional mortality was observed due to cooler temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid38694755, year = {2024}, author = {Jinga, P and Manyangadze, T}, title = {Variable intraspecific response to climate change in a medicinally important African tree species, Vachellia sieberiana (DC.) (paperbark thorn).}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e11314}, pmid = {38694755}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to disproportionately impact sub-Saharan Africa, with potential devastating consequences on plant populations. Climate change may, however, impact intraspecific taxa differently. The aim of the study was to determine the current distribution and impact of climate change on three varieties of Vachellia sieberiana, that is, var. sieberiana, var. villosa and var. woodii. Ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) were built in "biomod2" using 66, 45, and 137 occurrence records for var. sieberiana, var. villosa, and var. woodii, respectively. The ensemble SDMs were projected to 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 under three general circulation models (GCMs) and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The three GCMs were the Canadian Earth System Model version 5, the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Model version 6A Low Resolution, and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6. The suitable habitat of var. sieberiana predominantly occurs in the Sudanian and Zambezian phytochoria while that of var. villosa largely occurs in the Sudanian phytochorion. The suitable habitat of var. woodii mainly occurs in the Zambezian phyotochorion. There is coexistence of var. villosa and var. sieberiana in the Sudanian phytochorion while var. sieberiana and var. woodii coexist in the Zambezian phytochorion. Under SSP2-4.5 in 2041-2060 and averaged across the three GCMs, the suitable habitat expanded by 33.8% and 119.7% for var. sieberiana and var. villosa, respectively. In contrast, the suitable habitat of var. woodii contracted by -8.4%. Similar trends were observed in 2041-2060 under SSP5-8.5 [var. sieberiana (38.6%), var. villosa (139.0%), and var. woodii (-10.4%)], in 2081-2100 under SSP2-4.5 [var. sieberiana (4.6%), var. villosa (153.4%), and var. woodii (-14.4%)], and in 2081-2100 under SSP5-8.5 [var. sieberiana (49.3%), var. villosa (233.4%), and var. woodii (-30.7%)]. Different responses to climate change call for unique management and conservation decisions for the varieties.}, }
@article {pmid38692319, year = {2024}, author = {Li, C and Zhang, S}, title = {Disentangling the impact of climate change, human activities, vegetation dynamics and atmospheric CO2 concentration on soil water use efficiency in global karst landscapes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172865}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172865}, pmid = {38692319}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Soil Water Use Efficiency (SWUE), which quantifies the carbon gain against each unit of soil moisture depletion, represents an essential ecological parameter that delineates the carbon-water coupling within terrestrial ecosystems. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of SWUE, its sensitivity to environmental variables, and the underlying driving mechanisms across various temporal scales in the global karst region are largely uncharted. This study utilized the sensitivity algorithm of partial least squares regression, partial differential equations, and elasticity coefficients to investigate the characteristics of SWUE variations across different climatic zones in the global karst region and their responsiveness to environmental variables. Moreover, the study quantified the individual contributions of climate variability, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, human activities, and vegetation changes to SWUE variations. The results indicated that SWUE across different climatic zones in the global karst region demonstrated an increasing trend from 2000 to 2018, with the most notable improvement observed in the humid zone. SWUE presented regular distribution and variation characteristics across different latitudinal zones at a monthly scale. The sensitivity of SWUE to precipitation was significantly higher compared to its responsiveness to other environmental factors. Additionally, the trend in SWUE's sensitivity to precipitation demonstrated the most significant change. The sensitivity of SWUE to various environmental factors and the trend of this sensitivity in the arid zone revealed significant variation compared to other climatic zones. Gross primary productivity and soil moisture were identified as the intrinsic factors influencing SWUE changes, contributing 16 % and - 84 %, respectively. Climate variability and human activities were identified as the primary exogenous factors contributing to the increase in SWUE, accounting for 76 % and 16 %, respectively. This study advances the understanding of carbon-water coupling in karst regions, providing significant insights into the ecological management of global karst environments amidst climate variations.}, }
@article {pmid38692031, year = {2024}, author = {Lima, CG and Campos, JC and Regos, A and Honrado, JP and Fernandes, PM and Freitas, TR and Santos, JA and Vicente, JR}, title = {Fire suppression and land-use strategies drive future dynamics of an invasive plant in a fire-prone mountain area under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {359}, number = {}, pages = {120997}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120997}, pmid = {38692031}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Woody invasive alien species can have profound impacts on ecosystem processes and functions, including fire regulation, which can significantly affect landscape resilience. Acacia dealbata, a widespread invasive alien plant in the Iberian Peninsula, holds well-known fire-adaptation traits (e.g., massive soil seed banks and heat-stimulated seed germination). In this study, we assess to what extent fire suppression and land-use strategies could affect the potential distribution of A. dealbata in a fire-prone transboundary protected mountain area of Portugal and Spain, using Habitat Suitability Models. Specifically, we predicted changes in habitat suitability for A. dealbata between years 2010 and 2050. We explored the potential impacts of two land-use strategies ('Business-as-usual' or 'High Nature Value farmlands') combined with three levels of fire suppression effectiveness using the biomod2 package in R. We also considered the potential effects of two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our modeling approach demonstrated a strong capacity to predict habitat suitability using either climate or land-cover information alone (AUC climate = 0.947; AUC LC = 0.957). According to climate-based models, A. dealbata thrives under conditions characterized by higher precipitation seasonality, higher precipitation in the warmest month, and higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. Regarding land cover, A. dealbata thrives mainly in landscapes dominated by urban areas and evergreen forest plantations. Our models forecasted that habitat suitability by 2050 could either increase or decrease depending on the specific combinations of fire suppression, land-use, and climate scenarios. Thus, a combination of business-as-usual and fire-exclusion strategies would enhance habitat suitability for the species. Conversely, management promoting High Nature Value farmlands would decrease the available suitable habitat, particularly under low fire suppression efforts. These findings suggest that promoting sustainable farming activities could impede the spread of A. dealbata by reducing habitat availability, while strategies aiming at fire-exclusion could facilitate its expansion, likely by enabling establishment and large seed production. This study highlights the complex interplay between fire-prone invasive species, fire and land-use strategies, and climate change; and thus the need to consider the interactions between land-use and fire management to promote invasive species control and landscape resilience.}, }
@article {pmid38692024, year = {2024}, author = {Abate, TG and Elofsson, K}, title = {Environmental taxation of plastic bags and substitutes: Balancing marine pollution and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {359}, number = {}, pages = {120868}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120868}, pmid = {38692024}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Several countries have imposed either a ban or a tax on single-use plastic packaging, motivated by their contribution to marine plastic pollution. This may lead consumers to opt for similar unregulated substitutes, potentially undermining or even counteracting the intended effect of the policy instrument. The purpose of this study is to theoretically and empirically compare the environmental and welfare effects of the first-best Pigouvian taxes on both plastic bags and a substitute (paper bags), with two alternative second-best policy instruments: a tax on plastic products alone, and a common uniform tax on all packaging materials. The empirical analysis accounts for two different types of environmental externalities from the use of both bag types: marine pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. It also compares results for two countries, Denmark and the USA, which differ in the demand for plastic and paper bags. The theoretical analysis shows that a unilateral tax on plastic bags should equal the marginal environmental damage of plastic bags minus a fraction of the marginal environmental cost of paper bags, hence being lower than the Pigouvian tax. The optimal common tax should equal a weighted average of the marginal environmental damage of the two bag types and would be lower than the Pigouvian tax on plastics if the marginal external cost of plastic bags exceeds that for paper bags. The empirical analysis shows that for default parameters, the variation in tax level across the studied scenarios is small. It also shows that if Pigouvian taxes cannot be implemented, a common uniform tax on both bag types would result in a higher welfare gain than a tax on plastic bags alone. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the level of the second-best taxes and their associated environmental and welfare impacts are sensitive to assumptions regarding the littering rate and decay rate of plastic bags in the marine environment.}, }
@article {pmid38691969, year = {2024}, author = {Iqbal, S and Xu, J and Arif, MS and Shakoor, A and Worthy, FR and Gui, H and Khan, S and Bu, D and Nadir, S and Ranjitkar, S}, title = {Corrigendum to "Could soil microplastic pollution exacerbate climate change? A meta-analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential" [Environ. Res. 252 (2024) 118945/ ER-23-14694R1].}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {252}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {119031}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119031}, pmid = {38691969}, issn = {1096-0953}, }
@article {pmid38691377, year = {2024}, author = {Clayton, S and Brown, LA}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2024.1839}, pmid = {38691377}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid38690634, year = {2024}, author = {Nelson, B and Faquin, W}, title = {Climate change is threatening access to cancer care: In this second of a two-part series on cancer and climate change, natural disasters fueled by global warming are creating new obstacles to cancer care for vulnerable communities.}, journal = {Cancer cytopathology}, volume = {132}, number = {5}, pages = {266-267}, doi = {10.1002/cncy.22828}, pmid = {38690634}, issn = {1934-6638}, mesh = {Humans ; *Neoplasms/therapy/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Health Services Accessibility ; *Natural Disasters ; *Global Warming ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, }
@article {pmid38690626, year = {2024}, author = {Pareek, AV}, title = {Pain in the Time of Climate Change.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1542/peds.2023-064382}, pmid = {38690626}, issn = {1098-4275}, }
@article {pmid38690317, year = {2024}, author = {Yigermal, H and Nakachew, K and Assefa, F}, title = {The effects of seedling transplanting on growth and yield performance of maize (Zea mays L.) for climate change resilience in Burie District, Northwestern Ethiopia: Dataset Article.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {54}, number = {}, pages = {110410}, doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2024.110410}, pmid = {38690317}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Maize is produced throughout the world and it is also a primary staple food crop in many developing countries. The field experiment was conducted during the main rainy season of 2018 in Burie district to study the effects of types and growth stages of seedlings on the growth and yield of transplanted maize (Zea mays L.). Factorial combinations of two types of seedlings (bare rooted and poly bagged); five levels of seedling's growth stages (seedlings of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 true leaf/ves) and one control (direct seeded) were laid down in randomized complete block design with three replications. Data on phenological, vegetative growth and yield-related parameters were collected following standard methods and procedures. All data were subjected to analysis of variance using SAS software, and mean separation for significant treatments was done by LSD. Both main effects affected the number of grains cob[-1], grain, and stover yield highly significantly and days to 50% silking very highly significantly. Types of seedlings affected days to 50% tasselling significantly; and days to 90% physiological maturity and plant height highly significantly. In addition, types of seedlings affected the number of cobs plant[-1], cob length, number of grains row[-1]and biomass yield, very highly significantly. Seedlings' growth stages had a very highly significant effect on days to 50% tasseling and days to 90% physiological maturity. The number of cobs plant[-1], cob length, number of grains row[-1]and biomass yield were also highly significantly affected by seedlings' growth stages. The interaction effect was highly significant on the number of cobs plant[-1], grain, and stover yield and very highly significant on the harvest index. The highest (10.7t ha[-1]) grain yield of maize was found from the transplantation of polybagged seedlings at four true leaf stages. Although it is difficult to conclude based on one season and one location research trial, transplanting of poly-bagged seedlings at four true leaf stages gave superior grain yield. This treatment combination also gave the highest net benefit with an acceptable range of marginal rate of return. Therefore, transplanting polybagged seedlings at four true leaf stages is economically feasible and can be recommended tentatively for Burie District. However; it's also advised to repeat the study in areas having terminal moisture stress for maize production.}, }
@article {pmid38689895, year = {2024}, author = {Dunn, RR and Kirby, KR and Bowern, C and Ember, CR and Gray, RD and McCarter, J and Kavanagh, PH and Trautwein, M and Nichols, LM and Gavin, MC and Botero, C}, title = {Climate, climate change and the global diversity of human houses.}, journal = {Evolutionary human sciences}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e24}, doi = {10.1017/ehs.2024.5}, pmid = {38689895}, issn = {2513-843X}, abstract = {Globally, human house types are diverse, varying in shape, size, roof type, building materials, arrangement, decoration and many other features. Here we offer the first rigorous, global evaluation of the factors that influence the construction of traditional (vernacular) houses. We apply macroecological approaches to analyse data describing house features from 1900 to 1950 across 1000 societies. Geographic, social and linguistic descriptors for each society were used to test the extent to which key architectural features may be explained by the biophysical environment, social traits, house features of neighbouring societies or cultural history. We find strong evidence that some aspects of the climate shape house architecture, including floor height, wall material and roof shape. Other features, particularly ground plan, appear to also be influenced by social attributes of societies, such as whether a society is nomadic, polygynous or politically complex. Additional variation in all house features was predicted both by the practices of neighouring societies and by a society's language family. Collectively, the findings from our analyses suggest those conditions under which traditional houses offer solutions to architects seeking to reimagine houses in light of warmer, wetter or more variable climates.}, }
@article {pmid38685428, year = {2024}, author = {Bao, Y and Tian, H and Wang, X}, title = {Effects of climate change and ozone on vegetation phenology on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172780}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172780}, pmid = {38685428}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The vegetation phenology, encompassing the start (SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing season on the Tibetan Plateau, has been significantly impacted by global climate change. Furthermore, ozone (O3) has gradually become the main pollutant in this region, substantially influencing carbon cycle and ecosystems on Earth. While ongoing studies have focused mainly on the implications of climate parameters, including temperature, precipitation, and radiation, the effects of O3 on the SOS and EOS remain unclear. Here, we compared the responses and sensitivities of the SOS and EOS to both climatic factors and O3 in this region. With the use of partial correlation analysis, we found that increased precipitation was the most important factor influencing the SOS and caused earlier occurrence (4.8 % vs. 21.9 %) for most plant functional types. In comparison, temperature only dominated in shrublands. In particular, we found that the EOS responded comparably to climatic factors with similar proportions between advancing and delaying patterns. However, higher O3 levels consistently advanced the EOS for almost all plant functional types and was the main factor controlling EOS variations based on the sensitivity analysis. Our results emphasized that O3 pollution should be considered for obtaining better phenological forecasts and determining the impacts of the environment and atmospheric composition on carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38685002, year = {2024}, author = {Abousoliman, AD and Ibrahim, AM and Abualruz, H and Magdi, HM and Zaghamir, DEF and Alhowimel, A and El-Monshed, AH and El-Gazar, HE and Zoromba, MA}, title = {Exploring the relationship between nursing students' knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and their psychological distress: a cross-national investigation.}, journal = {BMC nursing}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {294}, pmid = {38685002}, issn = {1472-6955}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses a worldwide challenge with anticipated exacerbation in the future, resulting in irreversible consequences. Nursing students may be vulnerable to experiencing psychological effects associated with climate change.<br><br>AIM: The current study aimed to investigate the relationship between nursing students' knowledge and attitudes toward climate change and their psychological distress.<br><br>METHOD: This descriptive cross-sectional study recruited 377 nursing students from three universities located in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt in the Middle East. Data collection was conducted using scales for assessing nursing students' knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and their psychological distress. Correlations were assessed and multiple regression analysis was conducted to explore the predictors of students' psychological distress.<br><br>RESULTS: The current study showed that knowledge regarding climate change significantly and positively correlated to the attitude toward climate change (r&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.213), then again, the score of psychological distress significantly and negatively correlated to the score of students' knowledge and attitude regarding climate change (r&#x2009;=&#x2009;-&#x2009;0.182 and -&#x2009;0.110 respectively). Regression analyses showed that academic achievement had the strongest positive impact on students' psychological distress, while knowledge regarding climate change and attitude toward climate change had negative impacts (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.381, &#x3b2;=-0.205, and &#x3b2;=-0.045 respectively). Moreover, knowledge and attitude regarding climate change were found to be significant predictors of students' psychological distress, collectively accounting for 18.2% of the observed variance.<br><br>The findings highlight the importance of incorporating climate change into nursing education programs. By enhancing nursing students' knowledge and attitudes towards climate change, there is potential to reduce their psychological distress. This study underscores the need for curriculum reforms that integrate climate change topics, aiming to foster a well-informed and resilient future nursing workforce.}, }
@article {pmid38684780, year = {2024}, author = {Shen, T and Rasdi, IB and Ezani, NEB and San, OT}, title = {The mediating role of pro-environmental attitude and intention on the translation from climate change health risk perception to pro-environmental behavior.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {9831}, pmid = {38684780}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Intention ; Male ; China ; Female ; Adult ; Perception ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Attitude ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a serious environmental issue appearing in China. As a public service institution operating around the clock, the negative impact of hospitals on the environment is evident, promoting their workers' pro-environmental behavior (PEB) through increasing climate change health risk perception (CHRP) is an effective method to protect the environment and achieve sustainable development. This study investigates how CHRP shapes pro-environmental attitude (PEA), pro-environmental intention (PEI), and pro-environmental behavior (PEB) among hospital workers. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) to determine the chain of causation from CHRP to PEB among hospital workers. The result shows that CHRP positively affects PEA and PEI, and PEI positively affects their PEB. In addition, although CHRP has no significant direct effect on PEB, it can play a crucial indirect effect through the mediating role of PEI. Moreover, the result of multiple regression shows that there are significant differences regarding PEA, PEI, and PEB.}, }
@article {pmid38684006, year = {2024}, author = {Marshall, AM and Abatzoglou, JT and Rahimi, S and Lettenmaier, DP and Hall, A}, title = {California's 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {20}, pages = {e2320600121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2320600121}, pmid = {38684006}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {2021-69012-35916//USDA | National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)/ ; 2021-67021-35344//USDA | National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)/ ; 2241892//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; A23-1053-S003//U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)/ ; N/A//DOD | Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP)/ ; EPC-20-006//CNRA | California Energy Commission (CEC)/ ; LRF-18-542511//University of California Climate Ecosystems Future/ ; 2023-19665//Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (APSF)/ ; }, abstract = {The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention in recent years, but a focus exclusively on low snow leaves high snow years relatively underexplored. However, these large snow years are hydrologically and economically important in regions where snow is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term "snow deluge" and use anomalously high snowpack in California's Sierra Nevada during the 2023 water year as a case study. Snow monitoring sites across the state had a median 41 y return interval for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, a process-based snow model showed a 54 y return interval for statewide April 1 SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While snow droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, snow deluges require both cool and wet conditions. Relative to the last century, cool-season temperature and precipitation during California's 2023 snow deluge were both moderately anomalous, while temperature was highly anomalous relative to recent climatology. Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges-which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event-are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States. Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid38683894, year = {2024}, author = {Solomon, CG and Landrigan, PJ}, title = {Fossil Fuels, Climate Change, and Cardiovascular Disease: A Call to Action.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {149}, number = {18}, pages = {1400-1401}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.065904}, pmid = {38683894}, issn = {1524-4539}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology ; *Fossil Fuels ; }, }
@article {pmid38683870, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, Y and Li, C and Zhao, S and Wei, Y and Li, K and Jiang, X and Ho, J and Ran, J and Han, L and Zee, BC and Chong, KC}, title = {Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {e0012158}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0012158}, pmid = {38683870}, issn = {1935-2735}, abstract = {Vector-borne infectious disease such as dengue fever (DF) has spread rapidly due to more suitable living environments. Considering the limited studies investigating the disease spread under climate change in South and Southeast Asia, this study aimed to project the DF transmission potential in 30 locations across four South and Southeast Asian countries. In this study, weekly DF incidence data, daily mean temperature, and rainfall data in 30 locations in Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand from 2012 to 2020 were collected. The effects of temperature and rainfall on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of DF transmission were examined using generalized additive models. Projections of location-specific Rt from 2030s to 2090s were determined using projected temperature and rainfall under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), and the peak DF transmissibility and epidemic duration in the future were estimated. According to the results, the projected changes in the peak Rt and epidemic duration varied across locations, and the most significant change was observed under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Under SSP585, the country-specific peak Rt was projected to decrease from 1.63 (95% confidence interval: 1.39-1.91), 2.60 (1.89-3.57), and 1.41 (1.22-1.64) in 2030s to 1.22 (0.98-1.51), 2.09 (1.26-3.47), and 1.37 (0.83-2.27) in 2090s in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, respectively. Yet, the peak Rt in Sri Lanka changed slightly from 2030s to 2090s under SSP585. The epidemic duration in Singapore and Malaysia was projected to decline under SSP585. In conclusion, the change of peak DF transmission potential and disease outbreak duration would vary across locations, particularly under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Interventions should be considered to slow down global warming as well as the potential increase in DF transmissibility in some locations of South and Southeast Asia.}, }
@article {pmid38683757, year = {2024}, author = {Stanton, DE}, title = {Epiphytes as leading indicators of climate and other changes. A commentary on 'Interactions of moisture and light drive lichen growth and the response to climate change scenarios - experimental evidence for Lobaria pulmonaria'.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcae051}, pmid = {38683757}, issn = {1095-8290}, }
@article {pmid38681622, year = {2024}, author = {Baraj, B and Mishra, M and Sudarsan, D and Silva, RMD and Santos, CAG}, title = {Climate change and resilience, adaptation, and sustainability of agriculture in India: A bibliometric review.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e29586}, pmid = {38681622}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is a global issue, with effects felt across nations, including India. The influences of CC, such as rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and extreme weather events, have a direct impact on agricultural productivity, thereby affecting food security, income, livelihoods, and overall population health. This study aims to identify trends, patterns, and common themes in research on Climate Change and Resilience, Adaptation, and Sustainability of Agriculture in India (CCRASAI). It also seeks to illuminate potential future research directions to guide subsequent research and policy initiatives. The adverse impacts of CC could push farmers into poverty and undernourishment, underscoring the imperative to focus on the resilience, adaptation, and sustainability of agriculture in India. A bibliometric review was conducted using Biblioshiny and VoSviewer software to analyze 572 articles focused on CCRASAI from the Scopus and Web of Science databases, published between 1994 and 2022. There was an evident upward trend in CCRASAI publications during this period, with steady growth appearing after 2007. Among the States and Union Territories, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have the highest number of published research articles. Research on CCRASAI is most concentrated in the southern plateau, the trans-Gangetic and middle Gangetic plains, and the Himalayan regions. The frequently used terms-'climate change impacts,' 'adaptation strategies,' and 'sustainable agriculture'-in CCRASAI research emphasize the focus on analyzing the effects of CC, creating adaptation strategies, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices.}, }
@article {pmid38681611, year = {2024}, author = {Esfandeh, S and Danehkar, A and Salmanmahiny, A and Alipour, H and Kazemzadeh, M and Marcu, MV and Sadeghi, SMM}, title = {Climate change projection using statistical downscaling model over southern coastal Iran.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e29416}, pmid = {38681611}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Iran is highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly evident in shifting precipitation and temperature patterns, especially in its southern coastal region. With these changing climate conditions, there is an urgent need for practical and adaptive management of water resources and energy supply to address the challenges posed by future climate change. Over the next two to three decades, the effects of climate change, such as precipitation and temperature, are expected to worsen, posing greater risks to water resources, agriculture, and infrastructure stability. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the alterations in mean daily temperature (Tmean) and total daily rainfall (rrr24) utilizing climate change scenarios from both phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) in the southern coastal regions of Iran (Hormozgan province), specifically north of the Strait of Hormuz. The predictions were generated using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) predictors, incorporating climate change scenarios from CMIP5 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 and CMIP6 with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1, 2, and 5. The analysis was conducted for three distinct time periods: the early 21st century (2021-2045), middle 21st century (2046-2071), and late 21st century (2071-2095). The results indicated that the CMIP5 model outperformed the CMIP6 model in simulating and predicting Tmean and rrr24. In addition, a significant increase in Tmean was observed across all the scenarios and time periods, with the most pronounced trend occurring in the middle and late 21st century future periods. This increase was already evident during the base period of 2021-2045 across all scenarios. Moreover, the fluctuations in precipitation throughout the region and across all scenarios were significant in the three examined future periods. The results indicated that among CMIP5 scenarios, RCP8.5 had highest changes of Tmean (+1.22 °C) in Bandar Lengeh station in 2071-2095 period. The lowest change magnitude of Tmean among CMIP5 scenarios was found in RCP4.5 (-1.94 °C) in Ch station in 2046-2070 period. The results indicated that among CMIP5 scenarios, RCP8.5 had highest changes of rrr24 (+150.2 mm) in Chabahar station in 2071-2095 period. The lowest change magnitude of rrr24 among CMIP5 scenarios was found in RCP8.5 (-25.8 mm) in Bandar Abbas station in 2046-2070 period. In conclusion, the study reveals that the coastal area of Hormozgan province will experience rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns in the future. These changes may lead to challenges such as increased water and energy consumption, heightened risks of droughts or floods, and potential damage to agriculture and infrastructure. These findings offer valuable insights for implementing local mitigation policies and strategies and adapting to emerging climate changes in Hormozgan's coastal areas. For example, utilizing water harvesting technologies, implementing watershed management practices, and adopting new irrigation systems can address challenges like water consumption, agricultural impacts, and infrastructure vulnerability. Future research should accurately assess the effect of these changes in precipitation and temperature on water resources, forest ecosystems, agriculture, and other infrastructures in the study area to implement effective management measures.}, }
@article {pmid38681180, year = {2024}, author = {Noedoost, F and Behroozian, M and Karami, S and Joharchi, MR}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal species endemic to Iran in southwestern Asia.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e11241}, pmid = {38681180}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change is considered to rank among the most important global issues affecting species' geographic distributions and biodiversity. Understanding effects of climate change on species can enhance conservation efficacy. In this study, we applied ecological niche modeling (ENM) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches to predict the potential geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal plant species to Iran in southwestern Asia, under current and future climate scenarios. We evaluated potential distributional areas of the species, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2041-2060. Most current potential suitable areas were identified for A. eriophora in montane regions. Our results anticipated that the potential distribution of A. eriophora will expand geographically toward higher elevations and northward. However, the species is expected to experience relatively high losses of suitability in its actual habitats under future climate scenarios. Consequently, we recommend regional-to-national conservation action plans for A. eriophora in its natural habitats.}, }
@article {pmid38680183, year = {2024}, author = {Efimov, V&#x41c; and Rechkin, DV and Goncharov, NP}, title = {Multivariate analysis of long-term climate data in connection with yield, earliness and the problem of global warming.}, journal = {Vavilovskii zhurnal genetiki i selektsii}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {155-165}, doi = {10.18699/vjgb-24-18}, pmid = {38680183}, issn = {2500-0462}, abstract = {Climate change is the key challenge to agriculture in the XXI century. Future agricultural techniques in the Russian Federation should involve the optimization of land utilization. This optimization should apply algorithms for smart farming and take into consideration possible climate variations. Due to timely risk assessment, this approach would increase profitability and production sustainability of agricultural products without extra expenditures. Also, we should ground farming optimization not on available empirical data encompassing limited time intervals (month, year) or human personal evaluations but on the integral analysis of long-term information bodies using artificial intelligence. This article presents the results of a multivariate analysis of meteorological extremes which caused crop failures in Eastern and Western Europe in last 2600 years according to chronicle data and paleoreconstructions as well as reconstructions of heliophysical data for the last 9000 years. This information leads us to the conclusion that the current global warming will last for some time. However, subsequent climate changes may go in any direction. And cooling is more likely than warming; thus, we should be prepared to any scenario. Plant breeding can play a key role in solving food security problems connected with climate changes. Possible measures to adapt plant industry to the ongoing and expected climate changes are discussed. It is concluded that future breeding should be based on the use of highly adapted crops that have already been produced in pre-breeding programs, ready to meet future challenges caused by potential climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38680133, year = {2024}, author = {Assani, AA}, title = {Analysis of the impacts of climate change, physiographic factors and land use/cover on the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal daily mean flows in southern Quebec (Canada).}, journal = {Applied water science}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {109}, pmid = {38680133}, issn = {2190-5487}, abstract = {The objective of this study is to compare the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal daily mean flows measured in 17 watersheds, grouped into three homogeneous hydroclimatic regions, during the period 1930-2023 in southern Quebec. With regard to spatial variability, unlike extreme daily flows, seasonal daily mean flows are very poorly correlated with physiographic factors and land use and land cover. In fall, they are not correlated with any physiographic or climatic factor. In winter, they are positively correlated with the rainfall and winter daily mean maximum temperatures. In spring, they are strongly correlated positively with the snowfall but negatively with the spring daily mean maximum temperatures. However, in summer, they are better correlated with forest area and, to a lesser extent, with the rainfall. As for their temporal variability, the application of six different statistical tests revealed a general increase in daily mean flows in winter due to early snowmelt and increased rainfall in fall. In summer, flows decreased significantly in the snowiest hydroclimatic region on the south shore due to the decrease in the snowfall. In spring, no significant change in flows was globally observed in the three hydroclimatic regions despite the decrease in the snowfall due to the increase in the rainfall. In fall, flows increased significantly south of 47°N on both shores due to the increase in the rainfall. This study demonstrates that, unlike extreme flows, the temporal variability of seasonal daily average flows is exclusively influenced by climatic variables in southern Quebec. Due to this influence, seasonal daily mean flows thus appear to be the best indicator for monitoring the impacts of changes in precipitation regimes and seasonal temperatures on river flows in southern Quebec.}, }
@article {pmid38679631, year = {2024}, author = {Hollesen, J and Jepsen, MS and Stendel, M and Harmsen, H}, title = {Assessing the consequences of recent climate change on World Heritage sites in South Greenland.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {9732}, pmid = {38679631}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {CF18-1106//Carlsbergfondet/ ; }, abstract = {In the Arctic region, microbial degradation poses a significant threat to the preservation of archaeological deposits, actively consuming irreplaceable cultural and environmental records. In this study we assess the potential effects of the last 40 years of climate change on organic archaeological deposits within the UNESCO World Heritage area Kujataa in South Greenland. We use the dynamic process-oriented model, CoupModel to simulate soil temperatures and soil moisture contents at four archaeological sites in the area. The results show that the organic deposits have experienced a substantial warming the last 40 years, which combined with decreasing soil moisture contents creates a dangerous combination that can accelerate the degradation of organic materials. Currently, there are 583 archaeological sites registered within the area. Our findings highlight that the current climatic conditions are not conducive to organic preservation. The greatest risk of degradation lies within the relatively dry continental inland areas of the study region, where all Norse Viking Age settlements are situated. However, even at the "cold" and "wet" outer coast, the combined effects of rising summer temperatures and declining soil moisture levels may already be exerting a noticeable impact.}, }
@article {pmid38679611, year = {2024}, author = {Khadka, D and Babel, MS and Tingsanchali, T and Penny, J and Djordjevic, S and Abatan, AA and Giardino, A}, title = {Evaluating the impacts of climate change and land-use change on future droughts in northeast Thailand.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {9746}, pmid = {38679611}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {RDG6130025//National Research Council of Thailand/ ; NE/S002901/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change (CC) on droughts are well documented, but the effects of land-use change (LUC) are poorly understood. This study compares the projected individual and combined impacts of these stressors on future droughts (2021-2050), with respect to baseline (1981-2010) in one of the major tributaries of the Mekong River. LUC impacts on hydrological droughts are minimal compared to CC, with the latter expected to shorten the recurrence interval of a 20-year return period event to every 14 years. Both CC and LUC have significant impacts on agricultural droughts with heightened sensitivity. 'Once in a Decade' agricultural droughts will be 40% (35%) longer and 88% (87%) more severe under the CC (LUC) scenario. Under both stressors, the events occurring every 20 years will be twice as frequent. Results highlight the intensification of future droughts and the urgency for actions to mitigate/adapt to climate change and manage land use. Future policy shall holistically address agricultural water management, sustainable land use management, and crop management to cope with future droughts. We recommend developing resilient agricultural practices, enhanced water resource management strategies, and incorporating drought risk into land-use planning to mitigate the compounded impacts of CC and LUC.}, }
@article {pmid38678894, year = {2024}, author = {Sponagel, C and Weik, J and Feuerbacher, A and Bahrs, E}, title = {Exploring the climate change mitigation potential and regional distribution of agrivoltaics with geodata-based farm economic modelling and life cycle assessment.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {359}, number = {}, pages = {121021}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121021}, pmid = {38678894}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Tackling climate change remains a critical challenge for society. Achieving climate neutrality requires a massive expansion of renewable energies such as wind and photovoltaics (PV). Agriculture plays a key role in this context, especially as the expansion of ground-mounted PV systems often leads to land-use conflicts. Agrivoltaics (AV), which combines agricultural and electricity production, can be a solution, but the synergies are particularly dependent on local agronomic conditions. There is also a knowledge gap in how AV expansion impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the landscape level and how it contributes to regional emission reduction targets. In this study, we analysed the economic and climate change mitigation impacts of AV expansion pathways in the German state Baden-Württemberg using an integrated land use model and life cycle assessment under the assumption of general rentability of electricity production by AV. We found that implementing AV on 1%-5% of the regions's arable and grassland area reduced the total agricultural gross margin by a maximum of approximately 0.5%. Concurrently, AV implementation reduced GHG emissions by about 1.2 million to 5.9 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2-eq). Even if this reduction is almost exclusively accounted for in the energy sector, in absolute terms it amounts to more than the current GHG emissions from Baden-Württemberg's agricultural sector (about 4.4 Mt CO2-eq in 2021). In the 5% expansion scenario, almost 90% of the installations were installed on grassland, but this share dropped to 72% when considering landscape quality constraints. Although we found considerable regional disparity, our findings still suggest that AV is an essential component for regional emission reduction targets. These results are particularly relevant for policymakers in spatial planning, agricultural and energy policy.}, }
@article {pmid38678365, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, F and Long, R and Ma, Z and Xiao, H and Xu, X and Liu, Z and Wei, C and Wang, Y and Peng, Y and Yang, X and Shi, X and Cao, S and Li, M and Xu, M and He, F and Jiang, X and Zhang, T and Wang, Z and Li, X and Yu, LX and Kang, J and Zhang, Z and Zhou, Y and Yang, Q}, title = {Evolutionary genomics of climatic adaptation and resilience to climate change in alfalfa.}, journal = {Molecular plant}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.molp.2024.04.013}, pmid = {38678365}, issn = {1752-9867}, abstract = {Given the escalating impact of climate change on agriculture and food security, gaining insights into the evolutionary dynamics of climatic adaptation and uncovering climate-adapted variation empower the breeding of climate-resilience crops to face future climate change. Alfalfa (Medicago sativa subsp. sativa), the queen of forages with remarkable adaptability across diverse global environments, is an excellent model for investigating species' responses to climate change. We conducted population genomic analyses to unravel alfalfa's climatic adaptation and genetic susceptibility to future climate change, utilizing genome resequencing data from 702 accessions of 24 Medicago species. We found that interspecific genetic exchange has fueled the gene pool of alfalfa, particularly enriching defense and stress response genes. Inter-subspecific introgression between Medicago sativa subsp. falcata (subsp. falcata) and alfalfa not only aids alfalfa's climatic adaptation but also introduces genetic burden. A total of 1671 genes were associated with climatic adaptation, and 5.7% of them were introgression from subsp. falcata. Integrating climate-associated variants and climate data, we identified vulnerable populations to future climate change, particularly in higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere, serving as a clarion call for targeted conservation initiatives and breeding efforts. Moreover, we unveil pre-adaptive populations demonstrating heightened resilience to climate fluctuations, illuminating a pathway for future breeding strategies. This study enhances our understanding of alfalfa's local adaptation and facilitates breeding of climate-resilient cultivars, contributing to effective agricultural strategies facing future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38678287, year = {2024}, author = {Qin, Z and Wu, Q and Bi, C and Deng, Y and Hu, Q}, title = {The relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behavior in adolescents: the mediating role of future self-continuity and the moderating role of green self-efficacy.}, journal = {BMC psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {241}, pmid = {38678287}, issn = {2050-7283}, support = {CSXL-21101//Key project of Sichuan Provincial Applied Psychology Research Center/ ; CSXL-21101//Key project of Sichuan Provincial Applied Psychology Research Center/ ; CSXL-21101//Key project of Sichuan Provincial Applied Psychology Research Center/ ; CSXL-21101//Key project of Sichuan Provincial Applied Psychology Research Center/ ; CSXL-21101//Key project of Sichuan Provincial Applied Psychology Research Center/ ; TER2021-011//Sichuan Teacher Education Research Center Project/ ; TER2021-011//Sichuan Teacher Education Research Center Project/ ; TER2021-011//Sichuan Teacher Education Research Center Project/ ; TER2021-011//Sichuan Teacher Education Research Center Project/ ; TER2021-011//Sichuan Teacher Education Research Center Project/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; *Self Efficacy ; Male ; Female ; *Anxiety/psychology ; *Adolescent Behavior/psychology ; Students/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Environment ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is seriously affecting human survival and development, and the anxiety caused by it is becoming increasingly prominent. How to alleviate people's climate change anxiety, improve the ecological environment, and promote the formation of green lifestyles among people, especially young people, is an important topic that deserves to be explored. This study examined the relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behaviors and the underlying psychological mechanism in the adolescents.<br><br>METHODS: This study explored the crucial role of future self-continuity (FSC) between climate change anxiety (CCA) and pro-environmental behaviors (PEB) in adolescents and examined the moderating role of green self-efficacy (GSE). In this study, a total of 1,851 middle and high school students from five schools were selected for questionnaire survey.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that (1) in both middle and high school grades, there was a significant negative correlation between climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behaviors; future self-continuity was significantly positively correlated with pro-environmental behaviors; green self-efficacy was negatively correlated with climate change anxiety and positively correlated with pro-environmental behaviors; (2) climate change anxiety negatively predicted pro-environmental behaviors, and compared with middle school grades, high school grade adolescents' climate change anxiety was significantly predicted pro-environmental behaviors. Future self-continuity mediated the relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behaviors in both grades. (3) green self-efficacy moderated the second half of the pathway of the mediation model only in middle grades. Specifically in middle school, future self-continuity did not significantly predict pro-environmental behaviors at low green self-efficacy level, but positively predicted pro-environmental behaviors at high green self-efficacy level. In high school, future self-continuity did not significantly predict pro-environmental behaviors in either high or low green self-efficacy level.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study suggests that there is a moderated mediation model between adolescents' climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behaviors, with different mediating and moderating effects among adolescents in various grades. This is of great significance in alleviating climate anxiety among adolescents and cultivating their pro-environmental behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid38677778, year = {2024}, author = {Anton, B and Cuevas, S and Hanson, M and Bhutta, ZA and Langlois, EV and Iaia, DG and Gasparri, G and Borghi, J}, title = {Opportunities and challenges for financing women's, children's and adolescents' health in the context of climate change.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014596}, pmid = {38677778}, issn = {2059-7908}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change/economics ; Adolescent ; Female ; Child ; *Child Health/economics ; *Adolescent Health/economics ; *Women's Health/economics ; Healthcare Financing ; Developing Countries ; }, abstract = {Women, children and adolescents (WCA), especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), will bear the worst consequences of climate change during their lifetimes, despite contributing the least to global greenhouse gas emissions. Investing in WCA can address these inequities in climate risk, as well as generating large health, economic, social and environmental gains. However, women's, children's and adolescents' health (WCAH) is currently not mainstreamed in climate policies and financing. There is also a need to consider new and innovative financing arrangements that support WCAH alongside climate goals.We provide an overview of the threats climate change represents for WCA, including the most vulnerable communities, and where health and climate investments should focus. We draw on evidence to explore the opportunities and challenges for health financing, climate finance and co-financing schemes to enhance equity and protect WCAH while supporting climate goals.WCA face threats from the rising burden of ill-health and healthcare demand, coupled with constraints to healthcare provision, impacting access to essential WCAH services and rising out-of-pocket payments for healthcare. Climate change also impacts on the economic context and livelihoods of WCA, increasing the risk of displacement and migration. These impacts require additional resources to support WCAH service delivery, to ensure continuity of care and protect households from the costs of care and enhance resilience. We identify a range of financing solutions, including leveraging climate finance for WCAH, adaptive social protection for health and adaptations to purchasing to promote climate action and support WCAH care needs.}, }
@article {pmid38677418, year = {2024}, author = {Steingruber, SM}, title = {The influence of atmospheric deposition and climate change driven catchment internal processes on the recovery from acidification of high-altitude Alpine lakes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172699}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172699}, pmid = {38677418}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The impact of atmospheric deposition and environmental factors on catchment processes and water chemistry of 20 high-altitude Alpine lakes in Southern Switzerland was investigated over four decades. Through the analysis of input-output budgets of sulphur (S), nitrogen (N), base cations and alkalinity significant trends emerged. Notably, S and N input concentrations significantly declined since the 1980s, by approximately 78 % and 22 %, respectively, with N primarily declining after 2000. Recovery from acidification was slightly delayed, likely due to the increased release of S, possibly originating from legacy S pools, alongside the simultaneous reduction in leaching of base cations from exchange sites. Catchments heavily impacted by thawing cryospheric features increasingly released S and base cations due to enhanced weathering processes, with hardly any impact on the recovery process, as evidenced by the balanced releases of S and base cations. N output concentrations followed the decrease of N input concentrations, while the relative N retention in the catchments remained relatively stable. Recently, both input concentrations of S and N have stabilised, while output concentrations of base cations began to increase across all catchments. The trend likely arises from the stabilisation of S and N input concentrations and/or the ongoing increase in weathering rates induced by climate change. Consequently, there was a consistent rise in alkalinity output concentrations even after the stabilisation of the S and N input concentrations. Ion ratio analysis suggests that carbonation primarily drives weathering processes in catchment areas unaffected by thawing cryosphere, while in areas impacted by thawing cryosphere, sulphide oxidation (or sulphate dissolution) is the dominant process. Further recovery depends on future N deposition and the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38677404, year = {2024}, author = {Yin, J and Huang, M and Duan, R and Huang, W and Zhang, Y}, title = {Effects of atrazine on movement, metabolism and gene expression in Pelophylax nigromaculatus larvae under global warming.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {119007}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.119007}, pmid = {38677404}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Global warming and environmental pollutants both pose a threat to the behavior and physiology of animals, but research on the combined effects of the two is limited. Atrazine, a widely used herbicide, has toxic effects on organisms. In this study, the effects of environmental concentrations of atrazine exposure (100 μg/L) for seven days on the movement, metabolism and gene expression related to motility of Pelophylax nigromaculatus larvae (GS8) were investigated under global warming. The results showed that compared to the optimal growth temperature (18°C), atrazine treatment under global warming (21°C) significantly increased the average speed (about 11.2 times) and maximum acceleration (about 1.98 times) of P. nigromaculatus larvae, altered the relative abundance of 539 metabolites, including Formyl-5-hydroxykynurenamine, 2,4-Dihydroxybenzophenone, and FAPy-adenine, and changed the nucleotide metabolism, pyrimidine metabolism, glycerophospholipid metabolism, and purine metabolism, as well as increased the gene expression of SPLA2 (about 6.46 times) and CHK (about 3.25 times). In summary, atrazine treatment under global warming caused metabolic disorders in amphibian larvae and increased the expression of some movement-related genes in the brain, resulting in abnormally active.}, }
@article {pmid38676432, year = {2024}, author = {Clayton, S}, title = {A social psychology of climate change: Progress and promise.}, journal = {The British journal of social psychology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/bjso.12749}, pmid = {38676432}, issn = {2044-8309}, abstract = {Social psychologists have conducted research relevant to environmental problems for many decades. However, the climate crisis presents a new problem with distinctive aspects and distinctive urgency. This paper reviews some of the principal ways in which social psychological research and theory have approached the topic, looking at perceptions, behaviour, and impacts linked to climate change. Each of these areas is becoming more sophisticated in acknowledging the diversity of experience among groups that vary in demographics and social roles. I close by identifying three important facets for future research: a focus on social justice, an effort to participate in interdisciplinary efforts, and an emphasis on maximizing our impact.}, }
@article {pmid38674491, year = {2024}, author = {Nan, Q and Li, C and Li, X and Zheng, D and Li, Z and Zhao, L}, title = {Modeling the Potential Distribution Patterns of the Invasive Plant Species Phytolacca americana in China in Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {38674491}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {31801984//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Phytolacca americana, introduced to China in the 20th century for its medicinal properties, has posed a significant ecological and agricultural challenge. Its prolific fruit production, high reproductive coefficient, adaptability, and toxic roots and fruits have led to the formation of monoculture communities, reducing native species diversity and posing threats to agriculture, human and animal health, and local ecosystems. Understanding its potential distribution patterns at a regional scale and its response to climate change is essential for effective monitoring, management, and control. In this study, we utilized the Maxent model to simulate potential habitat areas of P. americana across three timeframes (current, 2050s, and 2070s) under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Leveraging data from 556 P. americana sites across China, we employed ROC curves to assess the prediction accuracy. Our findings highlight key environmental factors influencing P. americana's geographical distribution, including the driest month's precipitation, the coldest month's minimum temperature, the wettest month's precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range. Under current climate conditions, P. americana potentially inhabits 280.26 × 10[4] km[2] in China, with a concentration in 27 provinces and cities within the Yangtze River basin and its southern regions. While future climate change scenarios do not drastically alter the total suitable area, the proportions of high and low-suitability areas decrease over time, shifting towards moderate suitability. Specifically, in the SSP126 scenario, the centroid of the predicted suitable area shifts northeastward and then southwestward. In contrast, in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the centroid shifts northward.}, }
@article {pmid38673348, year = {2024}, author = {Elnakib, S and Subhit, S and Shukaitis, J and Rowe, A and Cava, J and Quick, V}, title = {New Jersey Leaves No Bite Behind: A Climate Change and Food Waste Curriculum Intervention for Adolescents in the United States.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {38673348}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {SHW22-004//New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection/ ; 823051//Robert Wood Johnson Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Adolescent ; Female ; Male ; *Curriculum ; New Jersey ; Schools ; Child ; United States ; Students/psychology ; Self Efficacy ; Food Loss and Waste ; }, abstract = {Food waste is a major contributor to climate change. Schools offer a unique opportunity to educate on this issue while also reducing food waste generation; however, few climate-change education curricula that include a food waste component have been developed and tested with fidelity. Thus, the purpose of this cluster randomized controlled study was to assess the effectiveness of a climate change and food waste education program called NJ Leaves No Bite Behind (NJLNBB) among fifth-grade students. Lessons on food waste and sustainable food behaviors were developed that aligned with NJ Student Learning Standards for Climate Change and Next-Generation Science Standards. Participants (n = 162) completed pre- and post-test surveys that assessed knowledge, attitudes, self-efficacy, and behaviors. Post-test, the experimental group (n = 102) had significantly (p < 0.05) higher mean scores in knowledge, social norms, behavioral intentions, and perceived behavioral control compared to the control group (n = 60), with medium effect sizes, as determined by partial eta-squared. There were no significant between-group differences in mean score attitudes, self-efficacy, motivation to comply, or climate-friendly behaviors post-test. Almost three-quarters of participants who received the program agreed or strongly agreed the lessons were fun (75.5%), liked the card games (72.5), and learned a lot (78.4%). These findings are promising in terms of teaching adolescents the impacts of food waste on the climate.}, }
@article {pmid38673345, year = {2024}, author = {Naser, K and Haq, Z and Naughton, BD}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Health Services in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematised Review and Thematic Analysis.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {38673345}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; Humans ; Health Services ; Delivery of Health Care ; }, abstract = {Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on health services as categorized by the WHO's Building Blocks for creating Climate-Resilient Health Systems. Objective: The objective was to conduct a systematized review of the published literature concerning the impact of climate change, using a thematic analysis approach to address our aim and identify areas for further research. Design: A search was conducted on 8 February 2022 using the Embase and PubMed research databases. Peer-reviewed scientific studies that were published in English from 2012 to 2022, which described at least one report concerning the impact of climate change on health services in LMICs, were included. Studies were organized based on their key characteristics, which included the date of publication, objective, method, limitations, participants, and geographical focus. The Mixed-Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) was used to assess the risk of bias in the included studies. Results: Twenty-three studies were included in this review. Five areas of health services which align with the WHO building blocks framework were impacted by climate change. These health service areas included: (1) Service Delivery, (2) Human Resources, (3) Health Finance, (4) Healthcare Products and Technology, and (5) Leadership and Governance. However, research concerning the impact of climate change on health information systems, which is part of the WHO building blocks framework, did not feature in our study. The climatic effects were divided into three themes: meteorological effects, extreme weather events, and general. The research in this study found that climate change had a detrimental impact on a variety of health services, with service delivery being the most frequently reported. The risk of bias varied greatly between studies. Conclusions: Climate change has negatively impacted health services in a variety of different ways, and without further actions, this problem is likely to worsen. The WHO building blocks have provided a useful lens through which to review health services. We built an aligned framework to describe our findings and to support future climate change impact assessments in this area. We propose that further research concerning the impact of climate change on health information systems would be valuable, as well as further education and responsible policy changes to help build resilience in health services affected by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38671045, year = {2024}, author = {Giménez-Romero, &#xc0; and Iturbide, M and Moralejo, E and Gutiérrez, JM and Matías, MA}, title = {Global warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce's disease epidemics in European vineyards.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {9648}, pmid = {38671045}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {PID2021-123723OB-C22//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; PID2019-111481RB-I00//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; UERRA//Sixth Framework Programme/ ; }, mesh = {*Plant Diseases/microbiology ; *Vitis/microbiology ; *Xylella/pathogenicity ; Europe/epidemiology ; *Global Warming ; Wine ; Epidemics ; Farms ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Pierce's disease (PD) is a vector-borne disease caused by the bacteria Xylella fastidiosa, which affects grapevines in the Americas. Currently, vineyards in continental Europe, the world's largest producer of quality wine, have not yet been affected by PD. However, climate change may alter this situation. Here we incorporate the latest regional climate change projections into a climate-driven epidemiological model to assess the risk of PD epidemics in Europe for different levels of global warming. We found a significant increase in risk above + 2 ∘ C in the main wine-producing regions of France, Italy and Portugal, in addition to a critical tipping point above + 3 ∘ C for the possible spread of PD beyond the Mediterranean. The model identifies decreasing risk trends in Spain, as well as contrasting patterns across the continent with different velocities of risk change and epidemic growth rates. Although there is some uncertainty in model projections over time, spatial patterns of risk are consistent across different climate models. Our study provides a comprehensive analysis of the future of PD at multiple spatial scales (country, Protected Designation of Origin and vineyard), revealing where, why and when PD could become a new threat to the European wine industry.}, }
@article {pmid38667410, year = {2024}, author = {Cao, R and Feng, J}, title = {Future Climate Change and Anthropogenic Disturbance Promote the Invasions of the World's Worst Invasive Insect Pests.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {38667410}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {31560178//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Invasive insect pests adversely impact human welfare and global ecosystems. However, no studies have used a unified scheme to compare the range dynamics of the world's worst invasive insect pests. We investigated the future range shifts of 15 of the world's worst invasive insect pests. Although future range dynamics varied substantially among the 15 worst invasive insect pests, most exhibited large range expansions. Increases in the total habitat suitability occurred in more than ca. 85% of global terrestrial regions. The relative impacts of anthropogenic disturbance and climate variables on the range dynamics depended on the species and spatial scale. Aedes albopictus, Cinara cupressi, and Trogoderma granarium occurred four times in the top five largest potential ranges under four future climate scenarios. Anoplophora glabripennis, Aedes albopictus, and Co. formosanus were predicted to have the largest range expansions. An. glabripennis, Pl. manokwari, Co. formosanus, and So. invicta showed the largest range centroid shifts. More effective strategies will be required to prevent their range expansions. Although the strategies should be species-specific, mitigating anthropogenic disturbances and climate change will be essential to preventing future invasions. This study provides critical and novel insights for developing global strategies to combat the invasions of invasive insect pests in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38667380, year = {2024}, author = {Cui, S and Zhang, H and Liu, L and Lyu, W and Xu, L and Zhang, Z and Han, Y}, title = {Hypervolume Niche Dynamics and Global Invasion Risk of Phenacoccus solenopsis under Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {38667380}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2021L147//Scienti&#xfb01;c and Technological Programs of Higher Education Institutions in Shanxi/ ; 2017YJ18//Technology Innovation Fund of Shanxi Agricultural University/ ; 32201307//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 20210302124678//Fundamental Research Program of Shanxi Province/ ; }, abstract = {As a globally invasive quarantine pest, the cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis, is spreading rapidly, posing serious threats against agricultural and forestry production and biosecurity. In recent years, the niche conservatism hypothesis has been widely debated, which is particularly evident in invasive biology research. Identifying the niche dynamics of P. solenopsis, as well as assessing its global invasion risk, is of both theoretical and practical importance. Based on 462 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables, we used n-dimensional hypervolume analysis to quantify the multidimensional climatic niche of this pest in both its native and invasive ranges. We examined niche conservatism and further optimized the MaxEnt model parameters to predict the global invasion risk of P. solenopsis under both current and future climate conditions. Our findings indicated that the niche hypervolume of this pest in invasive ranges was significantly larger than that in its native ranges, with 99.45% of the niche differentiation contributed by niche expansion, with the remaining less than 1% explained by space replacement. Niche expansion was most evident in Oceania and Eurasia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.83) and true skill statistic (0.62) indicated the model's robust performance. The areas of suitable habitats for P. solenopsis are increasing significantly and the northward spread is obvious in future climate change scenarios. North Africa, northern China, Mediterranean regions, and northern Europe had an increased invasion risk of P. solenopsis. This study provided scientific support for the early warning and control of P. solenopsis.}, }
@article {pmid38666968, year = {2024}, author = {Muhummed, AM and Alemu, A and Maidane, YO and Tschopp, R and Hattendorf, J and Vonaesch, P and Zinsstag, J and Cissé, G}, title = {Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices of Rural Communities Regarding Antimicrobial Resistance and Climate Change in Adadle District, Somali Region, Ethiopia: A Mixed-Methods Study.}, journal = {Antibiotics (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/antibiotics13040292}, pmid = {38666968}, issn = {2079-6382}, support = {(no. 7F-09057.01.02 to JZ)//Jigjiga One Health Initiative (JOHI) (SDC) , Swiss Government Excellence Scholarships (ESKAS)./ ; }, abstract = {There is an urgent need for interventions in addressing the rapid and disproportionate impact of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and climate change (CC) on low- and middle-income countries. Within this context, it is important to understand indigenous knowledge in rural communities, which are highly affected. This study examined knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP) regarding AMR and CC in the Adadle district, Somali region, Ethiopia, utilizing mixed methods, including 362 surveys and 12 focus group discussions among rural communities. Findings showed that 39% and 63% of participants were familiar with AMR and CC, respectively. Of those surveyed, 57% attributed AMR to inappropriate antimicrobial use in animals and humans, while CC was often associated with Allah/God. Multivariable analysis indicated that males exhibited superior knowledge and a positive attitude towards AMR and CC. Additionally, individuals aged 26-35 and 36-45 years showed heightened awareness of AMR and CC, respectively. Moreover, participants who were government employees, pastoralists, and business owners showed better knowledge on CC compared to family caretaker. Religious education and households with more than six members were linked to lower AMR knowledge. This study underlines a greater awareness of CC than AMR and highlights gender-based disparities, recommending integrated educational AMR programs targeting different demographics through a One Health lens, actively involving females, and incorporating local beliefs and practices.}, }
@article {pmid38666852, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, X and Wang, X and Li, Y and Wu, C and Zhao, B and Peng, M and Chen, W and Wang, C}, title = {Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change-A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {38666852}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Climate change affects the geographical distribution of plant species. Rare Trachycarpus nanus with a narrow distribution range, high medicinal value and extremely small population is facing increasing extinction risks under global climate change. In this study, 96 recorded occurrences and 23 environmental factors are used to predict the potential suitable area of T. nanus based on the optimized MaxEnt (3.4.4) model and ArcGIS (10.7) software. The results show that when the parameters are FC = LQ and RM = 1, the MaxEnt model is optimal and AUC = 0.946. The distribution patterns were predicted in the past, present, and four future phases, i.e., 2021-2040 (2030), 2041-2060 (2050), 2061-2080 (2070), and 2081-2100 (2090). The main factors are the annual precipitation (bio12), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), temperature seasonality (bio4), precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16), and isothermality (bio3). The potential distribution of T. nanus is primarily concentrated in central Chuxiong, encompassing a total potential suitable area of 5.65 × 10[4] km[2]. In historical periods, the total habitat area is smaller than that in the present. In the future, the potential suitable area is generally increased. The centroid analysis shows that T. nanus will move to a high-altitude area and to the southeast. But its dispersal capacity may not keep up with the climate change rate. Therefore, additional protection sites for this species should be appropriately established and the habitat connectivity should be enhanced.}, }
@article {pmid38666797, year = {2024}, author = {Llorenç-Vicedo, A and Lluesma Gomez, M and Zeising, O and Kleiner, T and Freitag, J and Martinez-Hernandez, F and Wilhelms, F and Martinez-Garcia, M}, title = {New avenues for potentially seeking microbial responses to climate change beneath Antarctic ice shelves.}, journal = {mSphere}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e0007324}, doi = {10.1128/msphere.00073-24}, pmid = {38666797}, issn = {2379-5042}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The signs of climate change are undeniable, and the impact of these changes on ecosystem function heavily depends on the response of microbes that underpin the food web. Antarctic ice shelf is a massive mass of floating ice that extends from the continent into the ocean, exerting a profound influence on global carbon cycles. Beneath Antarctic ice shelves, marine ice stores valuable genetic information, where marine microbial communities before the industrial revolution are archived. Here, in this proof-of-concept, by employing a combination of single-cell technologiesand metagenomics, we have been able to sequence frozen microbial DNA (≈300 years old) stored in the marine ice core B15 collected from the Filchnner-Ronne Ice Shelf. Metagenomic data indicated that Proteobacteria and Thaumarchaeota (e.g., Nitrosopumilus spp.), followed by Actinobacteria (e.g., Actinomarinales), were abundant. Remarkably, our data allow us to "travel to the past" and calibrate genomic and genetic evolutionary changes for ecologically relevant microbes and functions, such as Nitrosopumilus spp., preserved in the marine ice (≈300 years old) with those collected recently in seawater under an ice shelf (year 2017). The evolutionary divergence for the ammonia monooxygenase gene amoA involved in chemolithoautotrophy was about 0.88 amino acid and 2.8 nucleotide substitution rate per 100 sites in a century, while the accumulated rate of genomic SNPs was 2,467 per 1 Mb of genome and 100 years. Whether these evolutionary changes remained constant over the last 300 years or accelerated during post-industrial periods remains an open question that will be further elucidated.<br><br>IMPORTANCE: Several efforts have been undertaken to predict the response of microbes under climate change, mainly based on short-term microcosm experiments under forced conditions. A common concern is that manipulative experiments cannot properly simulate the response of microbes to climate change, which is a long-term evolutionary process. In this proof-of-concept study with a limited sample size, we demonstrate a novel approach yet to be fully explored in science for accessing genetic information from putative past marine microbes preserved under Antarctic ice shelves before the industrial revolution. This potentially allows us estimating evolutionary changes as exemplified in our study. We advocate for gathering a more comprehensive Antarctic marine ice core data sets across various periods and sites. Such a data set would enable the establishment of a robust baseline, facilitating a better assessment of the potential effects of climate change on key genetic signatures of microbes.}, }
@article {pmid38664562, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Air-travel climate-change emissions detailed for nearly 200 nations.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38664562}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38664253, year = {2024}, author = {Osei-Kusi, F and Wu, CS and Akiti, SO}, title = {Assessing the impacts of crop production on climate change: An in-depth analysis of long-term determinants and policy implications.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {5}, pages = {479}, pmid = {38664253}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crop Production/methods ; Agriculture/methods ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Middle East ; Europe ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Africa South of the Sahara ; Africa, Northern ; Environmental Policy ; Asia, Central ; }, abstract = {This research investigates the long-term determinants of carbon emissions in three diverse regions-Europe and Central Asia (ECA), Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)-spanning 1990 to 2020. Utilizing advanced econometric models and analyses, including the Regularized Common Correlated Effects Estimator (rCCE), Common Correlated Effects Estimator (CCE), and Mean-Group (MG) approach, the study explores the intricate relationships between carbon emissions, crop production, emissions per agricultural production, energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, per capita GDP, and population. Region-specific nuances are uncovered, highlighting the varying dynamics: ECA exhibits intricate and non-significant relationships, SSA showcases significant effects of population dynamics and green technology adoption, and the MENA region reveals a nuanced interplay between emissions per agricultural production.The findings underscore the universal efficacy of green technology adoption for mitigation. Strategies for mitigating carbon emissions in the agricultural sector require diversified energy transition approaches, emphasizing efficiency enhancements, green technology adoption, and tailored population management strategies based on regional intricacies. Counterfactual simulations indicate the potential efficacy of strategic measures targeting crop production to reduce carbon emissions, while acknowledging the nuanced relationship between economic growth and emissions. Policymakers are urged to recognize the persistence in emission patterns, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions to transition towards more sustainable trajectories. Overall, the research provides essential insights for crafting effective policies at both regional and global scales to address the complexities of climate change mitigation in the agricultural sector.}, }
@article {pmid38664241, year = {2024}, author = {Brandt, M and Höppner, G}, title = {[Sustainable age(ing) in the context of climate change: state of research and conceptional considerations].}, journal = {Zeitschrift fur Gerontologie und Geriatrie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38664241}, issn = {1435-1269}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Research on age and ageing is starting to consider challenges related to climate change; however, most work focuses on reaction needs rather than action possibilities of older people.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: Based on a&#xa0;scoping review of 39&#xa0;papers from the scientific literature the construction of age(ing) in the context of climate change and sustainability were analyzed and constrictions were revealed. Following these considerations, a&#xa0;model of "sustainable age(ing) in times of climate change" is proposed, which enables successful, active and sustainable ageing to be reconciled.<br><br>RESULTS: The scoping review shows that older people are often considered as a&#xa0;homogeneous, vulnerable group and more or less helpless in the face of climate change. In the context of sustainability, they are attributed the role of a&#xa0;central cause or as part of the solution for environmental crises. The focus is broadened and contradictions and ambivalences are reconciled in this model of sustainable age(ing).<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate change can only be dealt with together. Research on age and ageing can support this on the basis of the model of sustainable age(ing) by providing important contributions to handling climate change and (re)actions regarding environmental crises.}, }
@article {pmid38663512, year = {2024}, author = {Rony, F and Cortellini, M and Guasconi, A and Mathews, KS and Piccinno, A and Poli, G and Vanhoutte, F and Klein, J}, title = {Evaluating the pharmacokinetics of beclometasone dipropionate/formoterol fumarate/glycopyrronium bromide delivered via pressurised metered-dose inhaler using a low global warming potential propellant.}, journal = {Pulmonary pharmacology &amp; therapeutics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {102299}, doi = {10.1016/j.pupt.2024.102299}, pmid = {38663512}, issn = {1522-9629}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Use of propellants with high global warming potential (such as HFA-134a) for pressurised metered-dose inhalers (pMDIs) is being phased down. Switching to dry-powder inhalers may not be clinically feasible for all patients; an alternative is reformulation using propellants with low global warming potential. The combination of beclometasone dipropionate/formoterol fumarate/glycopyrronium bromide (BDP/FF/GB) is available for asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease via pMDI using HFA-134a as propellant. This is being reformulated using the low global warming potential propellant HFA-152a. This manuscript reports three studies comparing BDP/FF/GB pharmacokinetics delivered via pMDI using HFA-152a vs HFA-134a.<br><br>METHODS: The studies were four-way crossover, single-dose, randomised, double-blind, in healthy volunteers. In Studies 1 and 2, subjects inhaled four puffs of BDP/FF/GB (Study 1: 100/6/12.5 &#x3bc;g [medium-strength BDP]; Study 2: 200/6/12.5 &#x3bc;g [high-strength]), ingesting activated charcoal in two of the periods (once per propellant). In Study 3, subjects inhaled medium- and high-strength BDP/FF/GB using a spacer. All three studies compared HFA-152a vs HFA-134a in terms of lung availability and total systemic exposure of beclometasone-17-monopropionate (B17MP; active metabolite of BDP), BDP, formoterol and GB. Bioequivalence was concluded if the 90% confidence intervals (CIs) of the ratios between formulations of the geometric mean maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) and area under the plasma concentration-time curve between time zero and the last quantifiable timepoint (AUC0-t) for the analytes were between 80-125%.<br><br>RESULTS: In Studies 1 and 2, systemic exposure bioequivalence (i.e., comparisons without charcoal block) was demonstrated, except for GB Cmax in Study 2 (upper 90% CI 125.11%). For lung availability (i.e., comparisons with charcoal block), B17MP and formoterol demonstrated bioequivalence in both studies, as did BDP in Study 2; in Study 1, BDP upper CIs were 126.96% for Cmax and 127.34% for AUC0-t). In Study 1, GB AUC0-t lower CI was 74.54%; in Study 2 upper limits were 135.64% for Cmax and 129.12% for AUC0-t. In Study 3, the bioequivalence criteria were met for BDP, B17MP and formoterol with both BDP/FF/GB strengths, and were met for GB AUC0-t, although not for Cmax. Both formulations were similarly well tolerated in all three studies.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, while formal bioequivalence cannot be concluded for all analytes, these data suggest therapeutic equivalence of the new formulation with the existing BDP/FF/GB pMDI formulation, therefore supporting reformulation using a propellant with low global warming potential.}, }
@article {pmid38665191, year = {2023}, author = {Swain, DL and Abatzoglou, JT and Kolden, C and Shive, K and Kalashnikov, DA and Singh, D and Smith, E}, title = {Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States.}, journal = {Communications earth &amp; environment}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {340}, doi = {10.1038/s43247-023-00993-1}, pmid = {38665191}, issn = {2662-4435}, abstract = {Escalating wildfire activity in the western United States has accelerated adverse societal impacts. Observed increases in wildfire severity and impacts to communities have diverse anthropogenic causes-including the legacy of fire suppression policies, increased development in high-risk zones, and aridification by a warming climate. However, the intentional use of fire as a vegetation management tool, known as "prescribed fire," can reduce the risk of destructive fires and restore ecosystem resilience. Prescribed fire implementation is subject to multiple constraints, including the number of days characterized by weather and vegetation conditions conducive to achieving desired outcomes. Here, we quantify observed and projected trends in the frequency and seasonality of western United States prescribed fire days. We find that while ~2 C of global warming by 2060 will reduce such days overall (-17%), particularly during spring (-25%) and summer (-31%), winter (+4%) may increasingly emerge as a comparatively favorable window for prescribed fire especially in northern states.}, }
@article {pmid38662494, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Climate change and its impact on asthma.}, journal = {The Nurse practitioner}, volume = {49}, number = {5}, pages = {32-33}, doi = {10.1097/01.NPR.0000000000000181}, pmid = {38662494}, issn = {1538-8662}, mesh = {Humans ; *Asthma/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Nurse Practitioners ; }, }
@article {pmid38662493, year = {2024}, author = {Arceneaux, LS and Gregory, KL}, title = {Climate change and its impact on asthma.}, journal = {The Nurse practitioner}, volume = {49}, number = {5}, pages = {25-32}, doi = {10.1097/01.NPR.0000000000000174}, pmid = {38662493}, issn = {1538-8662}, mesh = {Humans ; *Asthma/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Earth's climate is changing at an unprecedented pace, primarily due to anthropogenic causes including greenhouse gas emissions. Evidence shows a strong link between climate change and its effects on asthma. Healthcare professionals must be educated to advocate for and lead effective strategies to reduce the health risks of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38662294, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, Y and Lim, HS and Hu, C and Zhang, R}, title = {Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest fires in the context of climate change: a review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38662294}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Forest fires are sudden, destructive, hazardous, and challenging to manage and rescue, earning them a place on UNESCO's list of the world's eight major natural disasters. Currently, amid global warming, all countries worldwide have entered a period of high forest fire incidence. Due to global warming, the frequency of forest fires has accelerated, the likelihood of large fires has increased, and the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest fires have shown different trends. Therefore, the impact of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest fires has become a hot issue in the field of forest fire research in recent years. Therefore, it is of great significance and necessity to conduct a review of the research in this area. This review delves into the interactions and impacts between climate change and the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest fires. To address this issue, scholars have mainly adopted the following research methods: first, statistical analysis methods, second, the establishment of spatiotemporal prediction models for meteorology and forest fires, and third, the coupling of climate models with forest fire risk forecasting models. The statistical analysis method relies on the analysis of historical meteorological and fire-related data to study the effects of climate change and meteorological factors on fire occurrence. Meanwhile, forest fire prediction models utilize technical tools such as remote sensing. These models synthesize historical meteorological and fire-related data, incorporating key meteorological factors such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and wind. The models revealed the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of fires, identified key drivers, and explored the interactions between climate change and forest fire dynamics, culminating in the construction of predictive models. With the deepening of the study, the coupling of climate models and fire risk ranking systems became a trend in the prediction of forest fire risk trends. Moreover, as the climate warms, the increased frequency of extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts, snow and ice storms, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has accelerated forest fire occurrences and raised the risk of major fires. This review offers valuable technical insights by comprehensively analyzing the spatial and temporal characteristics of forest fires, elucidating key meteorological drivers, and exploring potential mechanisms. These insights serve as a scientific foundation for preventive measures and effective forest fire management. In the face of a changing climate, this synthesis contributes to the development of informed strategies to mitigate the escalating threat of forest fires.}, }
@article {pmid38662125, year = {2024}, author = {Niknam, A and Sarli, R and Taherizadeh, M and Attarroshan, S and Pourmansouri, F}, title = {REDD implementation for greenhouse gas reduction and climate change mitigation in Hyrcanian forests: a case study of the Kojoor Watershed, Northern Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {5}, pages = {474}, pmid = {38662125}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Iran ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is a specific strategy for combating deforestation and forest degradation to alleviate the effects of climate change. In this study, the potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction resulting from the implementation of a REDD project is estimated. Changes in forest cover throughout the years 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were analyzed using time-series Landsat imagery (TM, ETM + , and OLI) and a random forest algorithm. Multilayer perceptron neural networks were used to model the transition potential of the forest cover, which were then predicted via Markov chain analysis. The change detection analysis revealed two discernible patterns in forest cover dynamics. Between 1985 and 2000, a notable decrease in forest cover was seen, whereas from 2000 to 2020, it significantly increased. The results suggested that the absence of REDD implementation would result in the deforestation of approximately 199,569 hectares of forest cover between 2020 and 2050, leading to the release of 1,995,695 tCO2e of emissions into the atmosphere. However, with the implementation of REDD, these emissions would be reduced to 405,512 tCO2e, effectively preventing the release of 1,590,183 tCO2e of emissions into the upper atmosphere. This study demonstrates that the implementation of REDD projects can be an effective strategy for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change in the Hyrcanian forests.}, }
@article {pmid38661276, year = {2024}, author = {Chung, SJ and Lee, H and Jang, SJ}, title = {Factors affecting environmental sustainability attitudes among nurses - Focusing on climate change cognition and behaviours: A cross-sectional study.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jan.16205}, pmid = {38661276}, issn = {1365-2648}, abstract = {AIMS: To investigate the relationship between climate change cognition and behaviours (awareness, concern, motivation, behaviours at home and behaviours at work), positive and negative future cognition, and environmental sustainability attitudes in nurses and to identify the factors affecting environmental sustainability attitudes.<br><br>DESIGN: A cross-sectional study.<br><br>METHODS: In total, 358 nurses currently working in tertiary hospitals in Korea were recruited. Data were collected using an online questionnaire link from 1 August to 7 August 2022. Climate change cognition and behaviours were measured using the Korean version of the Climate, Health, and Nursing Tool. Positive and negative future cognition were measured using the Korean version of the Future Event Questionnaire. Environmental sustainability attitude was measured using the Korean version of the Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey-2. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify the factors affecting environmental sustainability attitudes.<br><br>RESULTS: Motivation, concern and behaviours at work were factors affecting environmental sustainability attitudes. Motivation was a pivotal influencing factor. Better scores for environmental sustainability attitudes were specifically correlated with higher scores for motivation, concern and behaviours at work.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Nurses' motivation, climate change concern and pro-environmental workplace practices should all be considered to improve their attitudes towards environmental sustainability.<br><br>To enhance nurses' environmental sustainability attitudes and behaviours, nurse educators must educate them to increase their motivation for climate action.<br><br>IMPACT: Nurses are increasingly expected to contribute to environmental sustainability. Hence, awareness of climate change and environmental sustainability among nurses must be improved, and nursing engagement and action encouraged. Nurse educators and managers should explore barriers to pro-environmental behaviour engagement among nurses, examine workplace cultures that encourage pro-environmental behaviours and develop policies/regulations to develop more environmentally sustainable workplaces.<br><br>REPORTING METHOD: We adhered to the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) guidelines.<br><br>Neither patients nor the public were involved in our research's design, conduct, reporting or dissemination plans. The nurses partook in this study exclusively as research participants and were not involved in any research process.}, }
@article {pmid38660736, year = {2024}, author = {Humphrey, K}, title = {Increasing impact, urgent advocacy: Addressing climate change and its impact on emergency departments.}, journal = {Emergency medicine Australasia : EMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1742-6723.14425}, pmid = {38660736}, issn = {1742-6723}, }
@article {pmid38660578, year = {2024}, author = {Ritu, MR and Sikder, D and Patwary, MM and Tamim, AR and Rodriguez-Morales, AJ}, title = {Climate change, urbanization and resurgence of dengue in Bangladesh.}, journal = {New microbes and new infections}, volume = {59}, number = {}, pages = {101414}, pmid = {38660578}, issn = {2052-2975}, }
@article {pmid38660546, year = {2024}, author = {Corrente, A and Pace, MC and Fiore, M}, title = {Climate change and human health: Last call to arms for us.}, journal = {World journal of clinical cases}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {1870-1874}, pmid = {38660546}, issn = {2307-8960}, abstract = {Climate change, now the foremost global health hazard, poses multifaceted challenges to human health. This editorial elucidates the extensive impact of climate change on health, emphasising the increasing burden of diseases and the exacerbation of health disparities. It highlights the critical role of the healthcare sector, particularly anaesthesia, in both contributing to and mitigating climate change. It is a call to action for the medical community to recognise and respond to the health challenges posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38660451, year = {2024}, author = {Shanker, AK and Sathee, L and Jain, V and Raghuram, N}, title = {Editorial: Plant nutrient use efficiency in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1402868}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2024.1402868}, pmid = {38660451}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid38657406, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, X and Fleskens, L and Huang, Y and Huang, Y}, title = {Cost, market, and policy constraints on mitigating climate change through afforestation in China.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {187}, number = {}, pages = {108652}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2024.108652}, pmid = {38657406}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Afforestation is a promising nature-based climate solution for mitigating climate change, but it is subject to a complex web of biophysical, cost-benefit, market, and policy processes. Although its biophysical feasibility has been established, the cost, market, and policy constraints that affect climate change mitigation through afforestation are still unclear. Here, we estimate such cost, market, and policy constraints on the basis of biophysical feasibility. Our findings reveal that implementation costs are a more relevant constraint than opportunity costs on mitigating climate change through afforestation. The China Certified Emission Reduction market currently provides only a 0.308 % incentive for climate change mitigation through afforestation, due to market access constraints. The current market prices of China Certified Emission Reduction, China Carbon Emissions Trading Exchange, and Nature Based Carbon Offset in Voluntary Carbon Market constrain 88.15 %, 87.95 %, and 85.75 % of CO2 removal actions through afforestation, compared to the carbon price scenario (US$62.97 tCO2[-1]) of the EU Emissions Trading System. Moreover, land policy under the scenarios of prohibiting conversion of cultivated land to forest and forest restoration in degraded areas exhibit 8.87-29.59 % and 65.16-74.10 % constraints, respectively, on mitigating climate change through afforestation compared to land-use freedom conversion scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Thus, enhancing the incentive price of CO2 removal, addressing the market access barrier, strengthening cooperation between global carbon markets, and exploring carbon-neutral and food multi-oriented land policies can be valuable sources of mitigation efforts over the next 40 years.}, }
@article {pmid38657059, year = {2024}, author = {Hisano, M and Ghazoul, J and Chen, X and Chen, HYH}, title = {Functional diversity enhances dryland forest productivity under long-term climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {10}, number = {17}, pages = {eadn4152}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.adn4152}, pmid = {38657059}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Biodiversity ; *Trees ; Canada ; Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Short-term experimental studies provided evidence that plant diversity increases ecosystem resilience and resistance to drought events, suggesting diversity to serve as a nature-based solution to address climate change. However, it remains unclear whether the effects of diversity are momentary or still hold over the long term in natural forests to ensure that the sustainability of carbon sinks. By analyzing 57 years of inventory data from dryland forests in Canada, we show that productivity of dryland forests decreased at an average rate of 1.3% per decade, in concert with the temporally increasing temperature and decreasing water availability. Increasing functional trait diversity from its minimum (monocultures) to maximum value increased productivity by 13%. Our results demonstrate the potential role of tree functional trait diversity in alleviating climate change impacts on dryland forests. While recognizing that nature-based climate mitigation (e.g., planting trees) can only be partial solutions, their long-term (decadal) efficacy can be improved by enhancing functional trait diversity across the forest community.}, }
@article {pmid38656926, year = {2024}, author = {Figueiredo, T and Midão, L and Rocha, P and Cruz, S and Lameira, G and Conceição, P and Ramos, RJG and Batista, L and Corvacho, H and Almada, M and Martins, A and Rocha, C and Ribeiro, A and Alves, F and Costa, E}, title = {The interplay between climate change and ageing: A systematic review of health indicators.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {4}, pages = {e0297116}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0297116}, pmid = {38656926}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Aging/physiology ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Male ; Female ; Health Status Indicators ; }, abstract = {Climate change and rapid population ageing pose challenges for communities and public policies. This systematic review aims to gather data from studies that present health indicators establishing the connection between climate change and the physical and mental health of the older population (≥ 65 years), who experience a heightened vulnerability to the impacts of climate change when compared to other age cohorts. This review was conducted according to the PICO strategy and following Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines. Three databases (PubMed, Scopus and Greenfile) were searched for articles from 2015 to 2022. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria,nineteen studies were included. The findings indicated that various climate change phenomena are associated with an elevated risk of mortality and morbidity outcomes in older adults. These included cardiovascular, respiratory, renal, and mental diseases, along with physical injuries. Notably, the impact of climate change was influenced by gender, socioeconomic status, education level, and age-vulnerability factors. Climate change directly affected the health of older adults through ambient temperature variability, extreme and abnormal temperatures, strong winds, sea temperature variability, extreme El Niño-southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions and droughts, and indirectly by air pollution resulting from wildfires. This review presents further evidence confirming that climate change significantly impacts the health and well-being of older adults. It highlights the urgency for implementing effective strategies to facilitate adaptation and mitigation, enhancing the overall quality of life for all individuals.}, }
@article {pmid38655669, year = {2024}, author = {O'Donnell, M and Palinkas, L}, title = {Taking a trauma and adversity perspective to climate change mental health.}, journal = {European journal of psychotraumatology}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2343509}, doi = {10.1080/20008066.2024.2343509}, pmid = {38655669}, issn = {2000-8066}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Mental Health ; Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/psychology ; Resilience, Psychological ; }, abstract = {The European Journal of Psychotraumatology has had a long interest in advancing the science around climate change and traumatic stress. In this special issue, we include papers that responded to a special call in this area. Six major themes emerge from these papers and together they contribute to trauma and adversity model of the mental health impacts of climate change. We argue that, in addition to individual vulnerability factors, we must consider the (i) cumulative trauma burden that is associated with exposure to ongoing climate change-related impacts; (ii) impact of both direct and indirect stressors; (iii) individual and community protective factors. These factors can then guide intervention models of recovery and ongoing resilience.}, }
@article {pmid38655367, year = {2024}, author = {Waheed, A and Jamal, MH and Javed, MF and Idlan Muhammad, K}, title = {A CMIP6 multi-model based analysis of potential climate change effects on watershed runoff using SWAT model: A case study of kunhar river basin, Pakistan.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e28951}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28951}, pmid = {38655367}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The hydrological regimes of watersheds might be drastically altered by climate change, a majority of Pakistan's watersheds are experiencing problems with water quality and quantity as a result precipitation changes and temperature, necessitating evaluation and alterations to management strategies. In this study, the regional water security in northern Pakistan is examined about anthropogenic climate change on runoff in the Kunhar River Basin (KRB), a typical river in northern Pakistan using Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) and flow durarion curve (FDC). Nine general circulation models (GCMs) were successfully utilized following bias correction under two latest IPCC shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios. Correlation coefficients (R[2]), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE), and the Percent Bias (PBIAS) are all above 0.75. The conclusions demonstrate that the SWAT model precisely simulates the runoff process in the KRB on monthly and daily timescales. For the two emission scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the mean annual precipitation is predicted to rise by 3.08 % and 5.86 %, respectively, compared to the 1980-2015 baseline. The forecasted rise in mean daily high temperatures is expected to range from 2.08 °C to 3.07 °C, while the anticipated increase in mean daily low temperatures is projected to fall within the range of 2.09 °C-3.39 °C, spanning the years 2020-2099. Under the two SSPs scenarios, annual runoff is estimated to increase by 5.47 % and 7.60 % due to climate change during the same period. Future socioeconomic growth will be supported by a sufficient water supply made possible by the rise in runoff. However, because of climate change, there is a greater possibility of flooding because of increases in both rainfall and runoff. As a result, flood control and development plans for KRB must consider the climate change's possible effects. There is a chance that the peak flow will move backwards relative to the baseline.}, }
@article {pmid38655309, year = {2024}, author = {Alemu, GT and Desta, SA and Tareke, KA}, title = {Characterize and analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought trends under future climate change conditions in South Wollo, North Wollo, and Oromia Zones, in Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e29694}, pmid = {38655309}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This research was conducted on North Wollo, South Wollo, and Oromia special zones, in Ethiopia. The study aimed to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of meteorological and hydrological drought trends using the selected drought indices and to predict its future trend in the selected areas. To achieve these objectives, meteorological and hydrological data were collected from the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute and the Ministry of Water and Energy respectively. The historical and future drought condition was analyzed by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI), reconnaissance drought index (RDI), and streamflow drought index (SDI) from the drought indicator calculator (DrinC) software. Based on the availability of the data, for historical drought analysis, ten meteorological stations with thirty-two years of daily data were selected. For the future scenario, RCP 4.5 was used to downscale the future climate data and to forecast SPI and RDI values. Also, an artificial neural network (ANN) was applied to forecast the future streamflow data using Python software, then the future hydrological drought was determined using the forecasted streamflow data. The result indicates that all zones were historically affected by severe to extreme droughts, especially 1984, 1986, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1992, 2003, 2007, 2010, 2013, and 2014 years. From 1984 to 1992 the probability of severe to extreme drought occurrence was on average of two years intervals and from 1992 to 2003 there is a huge gap. From the future drought analysis results, the probability of severe to extreme drought occurrence will be at five-year intervals on average. Based on the analyzed results, the frequency of severe to extreme drought occurrence of historical drought which was two and three years was increased to five years for the future conditions on average. But, these are short intervals and the magnitude of the event is very high. So, the regional water and energy office and other concerned bodies in the area have to plan a good drought mitigation mechanism and should develop a drought early warning system for the communities in and around the study area.}, }
@article {pmid38654902, year = {2024}, author = {Guevara, MG and Mazorra-Manzano, MA and Gayen, D and Figueiredo, A}, title = {Editorial: Plant proteolytic enzymes: contributions and challenges to improve food availability against climate change effects.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1398867}, pmid = {38654902}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid38654077, year = {2024}, author = {Blattner, CE}, title = {European ruling linking climate change to human rights could be a game changer - here's how.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {628}, number = {8009}, pages = {691}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-01177-3}, pmid = {38654077}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Human Rights/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *European Union ; Europe ; Environmental Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid38653832, year = {2024}, author = {Gibney, E and Petrić Howe, N}, title = {How climate change is affecting global timekeeping.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-00952-6}, pmid = {38653832}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38653405, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, L and Deng, C and Kang, R and Yin, H and Xu, T and Kaufmann, HJ}, title = {Assessing the responses of ecosystem patterns, structures and functions to drought under climate change in the Yellow River Basin, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172603}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172603}, pmid = {38653405}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding how ecosystems respond and adapt to drought has become an urgent issue as drought stress intensifies under climate change, yet this topic is not fully understood. Currently, conclusions on the response of ecosystems in different regions to drought disturbance are inconsistent. Based on long MODIS data and observed data, this study systematically explored the relationships between ecosystem patterns, structures and functions and drought, taking a typical climate change-sensitive area and an ecologically fragile area-the Yellow River Basin-as a case study. Drought assessment results revealed that the Yellow River Basin has experienced meteorological and hydrological drought during most of the last two decades, predominantly characterized by medium and slight droughts. The ecosystem patterns and structures changed dramatically as the grassland decreased and the landscape fragmentation index (F) increased with increasing wetness. The annual gross primary productivity (GPP) increased, the water use efficiency (WUE) declined and ecosystem service value (ESV) exhibited a W-shaped increase at the watershed scale, but there were significant regional differences. There were positive correlations between F, GPP, ESV and drought indices, while there was a negative correlation between WUE and drought indices at the watershed scale. Under drought stress, the ecosystem structure in the basin was disrupted, the GPP and ESV decreased, but the WUE increased. Notably, approximately 106 %, 20 %, and 1 % of the maximum reductions in F, GPP, and ESV, respectively, were caused by drought, while the maximum 4 % of WUE increased. Responses of some functions in the wetland and grassland to drought vary from those in other ecosystems. The mechanisms underlying ecosystem responses to drought were further investigated. This study enhances the understanding of these responses and will help stakeholders formulate drought mitigation policies and protect ecosystem health.}, }
@article {pmid38652853, year = {2024}, author = {Müller, F and Munagala, A and Bouthillier, MJ and Skok, JI and Holman, H}, title = {Climate Change Curricula in Family Medicine Residency Programs: Program Directors' Perspectives From a CERA Survey.}, journal = {Family medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.22454/FamMed.2024.548752}, pmid = {38652853}, issn = {1938-3800}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Climate change is a major threat to the health of people worldwide. The health care system deals with the immediate health-related effects of climate change and, at the same time, is a major emitter of greenhouse gas. This study aimed to investigate (a) the awareness and perception of climate change among family medicine residency program directors, and (b) the state of climate change education in family medicine residency programs.<br><br>METHODS: The Council of Academic Family Medicine Educational Research Alliance (CERA) conducted a cross-sectional survey of family medicine program directors in the United States in April 2023. We analyzed anonymous data using descriptive and bivariate statistics.<br><br>RESULTS: We analyzed responses from 284 family medicine residency program directors (response rate 41.1%). Of these, 56.8% indicated not having any lectures/seminars dedicated to climate change and no plans to introduce such curricula, with considerably higher rates in East South Central United States (92.8%). A majority considered principles of climate change, carbon emissions emitted by the health care system, and discussion of climate change with patients of lesser importance for residency program education.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: While climate change is an emerging topic affecting health and the provision of health care worldwide, our study suggests that many family medicine residency programs do not teach about it. Family medicine trainees may not always receive sufficient education about the risks posed to their patients by climate change, which could lead to them having limited knowledge and skills when discussing this topic with their patients in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38652188, year = {2024}, author = {Yadav, NK and Patel, AB and Singh, SK and Mehta, NK and Anand, V and Lal, J and Dekari, D and Devi, NC}, title = {Climate change effects on aquaculture production and its sustainable management through climate-resilient adaptation strategies: a review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38652188}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Aquaculture witnessed a remarkable growth as one of the fastest-expanding sector in the food production industry; however, it faces serious threat from the unavoidable impacts of climate change. Understanding this threat, the present review explores the consequences of climate change on aquaculture production and provides need based strategies for its sustainable management, with a particular emphasis on climate-resilient approaches. The study examines the multi-dimensional impacts of climate change on aquaculture which includes the shifts in water temperature, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, harmful algal blooms, extreme weather events, and alterations in ecological dynamics. The review subsequently investigates innovative scientific interventions and climate-resilient aquaculture strategies aimed at strengthening the adaptive capacity of aquaculture practices. Some widely established solutions include selective breeding, species diversification, incorporation of ecosystem-based management practices, and the implementation of sustainable and advanced aquaculture systems (aquaponics and recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS). These strategies work towards fortifying aquaculture systems against climate-induced disturbances, thereby mitigating risks and ensuring sustained production. This review provides a detailed insight to the ongoing discourse on climate-resilient aquaculture, emphasizing an immediate need for prudent measures to secure the future sustainability of fish food production sector.}, }
@article {pmid38652161, year = {2024}, author = {Parker, LE and Zhang, N and Abatzoglou, JT and Kisekka, I and McElrone, AJ and Ostoja, SM}, title = {A variety-specific analysis of climate change effects on California winegrapes.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38652161}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {AM22SCBPCA1133//Agricultural Marketing Service/ ; 2021-68012-35914//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; 2021-69012-35916//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; 60-2032-2-001//USDA Office of the Chief Economist/ ; 2032-21220-008-000-D//Agricultural Research Service/ ; }, abstract = {California contains a broad geography over which climate conditions can be suitable for cultivating multiple varieties of winegrapes. However, climate change is projected to make winegrape cultivation more challenging across many of California's winegrowing regions. In order to understand the potential effects of climate change on winegrapes, this study models variety-specific phenology for six winegrape varieties and quantifies the change in phenology and viticulturally-important agroclimate metrics over 12 of California's American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) by the mid-21st century. Results show more rapid development for winegrapes with earlier budburst, flowering, veraison, and maturation across all varieties and AVAs. Cabernet Sauvignon shows the greatest change in phenology timing, while Chardonnay shows the least change. Likewise, the West Sonoma Coast AVA shows the greatest average change in phenology timing across varieties and development stages and Lodi AVA shows the least. Projected changes in agroclimatic metrics include an additional month of potentially damaging heat days (above 35 °C) in some AVAs, and decreases in frost days. These results have implications for numerous factors related to viticultural production, including water resources management and crop yield and quality, and underscore the need for California winegrape growers to improve their resilience to climate change by adopting strategies such as increasing soil health and water use efficiency and selecting cultivars suited for future climate conditions. By conducting climate effects analyses at the variety-specific and AVA scale, important information is provided to the winegrowing industry at a resolution that can support decision-making towards resilience.}, }
@article {pmid38651121, year = {2024}, author = {Barouki, R}, title = {A toxicological perspective on climate change and the exposome.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {1361274}, pmid = {38651121}, issn = {2296-2565}, abstract = {Climate change is accompanied by changes in the exposome, including increased heat, ground-level ozone, and other air pollutants, infectious agents, pollens, and psychosocial stress. These exposures alter the internal component of the exposome and account for some of the health effects of climate change. The adverse outcome pathways describe biological events leading to an unfavorable health outcome. In this perspective study, I propose to use this toxicological framework to better describe the biological steps linking a stressor associated with climate change to an adverse outcome. Such a framework also allows for better identification of possible interactions between stressors related to climate change and others, such as chemical pollution. More generally, I call for the incorporation of climate change as part of the exposome and for improved identification of the biological pathways involved in its health effects.}, }
@article {pmid38650965, year = {2024}, author = {Jeffery, NW and Vercaemer, B and Stanley, RRE and Kess, T and Dufresne, F and Noisette, F and O'Connor, MI and Wong, MC}, title = {Variation in genomic vulnerability to climate change across temperate populations of eelgrass (Zostera marina).}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {e13671}, pmid = {38650965}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {A global decline in seagrass populations has led to renewed calls for their conservation as important providers of biogenic and foraging habitat, shoreline stabilization and carbon storage. Eelgrass (Zostera marina) occupies the largest geographic range among seagrass species spanning a commensurately broad spectrum of environmental conditions. In Canada, eelgrass is managed as a single phylogroup despite occurring across three oceans and a range of ocean temperatures and salinity gradients. Previous research has focused on applying relatively few markers to reveal population structure of eelgrass, whereas a whole-genome approach is warranted to investigate cryptic structure among populations inhabiting different ocean basins and localized environmental conditions. We used a pooled whole-genome re-sequencing approach to characterize population structure, gene flow and environmental associations of 23 eelgrass populations ranging from the Northeast United States to Atlantic, subarctic and Pacific Canada. We identified over 500,000 SNPs, which when mapped to a chromosome-level genome assembly revealed six broad clades of eelgrass across the study area, with pairwise F ST ranging from 0 among neighbouring populations to 0.54 between Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Genetic diversity was highest in the Pacific and lowest in the subarctic, consistent with colonization of the Arctic and Atlantic oceans from the Pacific less than 300 kya. Using redundancy analyses and two climate change projection scenarios, we found that subarctic populations are predicted to be potentially more vulnerable to climate change through genomic offset predictions. Conservation planning in Canada should thus ensure that representative populations from each identified clade are included within a national network so that latent genetic diversity is protected, and gene flow is maintained. Northern populations, in particular, may require additional mitigation measures given their potential susceptibility to a rapidly changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid38650358, year = {2024}, author = {Kalmar, A and Teunkens, A and Rex, S}, title = {The science of climate change and the effect of anaesthetic gas emissions. Useful metrics for ethical decision making.}, journal = {Anaesthesia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/anae.16299}, pmid = {38650358}, issn = {1365-2044}, }
@article {pmid38650059, year = {2024}, author = {Zain, A and Sadarangani, SP and Shek, LP and Vasoo, S}, title = {Climate change and its impact on infectious diseases in Asia.}, journal = {Singapore medical journal}, volume = {65}, number = {4}, pages = {211-219}, pmid = {38650059}, issn = {2737-5935}, abstract = {Climate change, particularly increasing temperature, changes in rainfall, extreme weather events and changes in vector ecology, impacts the transmission of many climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Asia is the world's most populous, rapidly evolving and diverse continent, and it is already experiencing the effects of climate change. Climate change intersects with population, sociodemographic and geographical factors, amplifying the public health impact of infectious diseases and potentially widening existing disparities. In this narrative review, we outline the evidence of the impact of climate change on infectious diseases of importance in Asia, including vector-borne diseases, food- and water-borne diseases, antimicrobial resistance and other infectious diseases. We also highlight the imperative need for strategic intersectoral collaboration at the national and global levels and for the health sector to implement adaptation and mitigation measures, including responsibility for its own greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid38650058, year = {2024}, author = {Tee, NCH and Yeo, JA and Choolani, M and Poh, KK and Ang, TL}, title = {Healthcare in the era of climate change and the need for environmental sustainability.}, journal = {Singapore medical journal}, volume = {65}, number = {4}, pages = {204-210}, pmid = {38650058}, issn = {2737-5935}, abstract = {Climate change is an existential threat to humanity. While the healthcare sector must manage the health-related consequences of climate change, it is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for up to 4.6% of global emission, aggravating global warming. Within the hospital environment, the three largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions are the operating theatre, intensive care unit and gastrointestinal endoscopy. Knowledge of the health-related burden of climate change and the potential transformative health benefits of climate action is important to all health professionals, as they play crucial roles in effecting change. This article summarises the available literature on the impact of healthcare on climate change and efforts in mitigation, focusing on the intrinsic differences and similarities across the operating theatre complex, intensive care unit and gastrointestinal endoscopy unit. It also discusses strategies to reduce carbon footprint.}, }
@article {pmid38648197, year = {2024}, author = {Konkel Neabore, L}, title = {Wake-up Call: Rapid Increase in Human Fungal Diseases under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {132}, number = {4}, pages = {42001}, doi = {10.1289/EHP14722}, pmid = {38648197}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {Rising temperatures and extreme weather are setting the stage for increases in fungal diseases. As new pathogenic fungi emerge and known threats spread and evolve, scientists and decision makers are responding.}, }
@article {pmid38648074, year = {2024}, author = {Pugliese, M and Gilardi, G and Garibaldi, A and Gullino, ML}, title = {The impact of climate change on vegetable crop diseases and their management: the value of phytotron studies for the agricultural industry and associated stakeholders.}, journal = {Phytopathology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1094/PHYTO-08-23-0284-KC}, pmid = {38648074}, issn = {0031-949X}, abstract = {Climate change is having a significant impact on global agriculture, and in particular on vegetable crops, which play a critical role in global nutrition. Recently, increasing research has concentrated on the impact of climate change on vegetable crop diseases, with several studies being conducted in phytotrons, which have been used to explore effects of increased temperatures and CO2 concentrations, to simulate future scenarios. This review focuses on the combined effects of temperature and carbon dioxide increases on foliar and soil-borne vegetable diseases, as evaluated under phytotron conditions. The influence of climate change on mycotoxin production and disease management strategies is also explored through case studies. The results offer valuable information that can be used to guide both seed and agrochemical industries, and to develop disease-resistant varieties and innovative control measures, including biocontrol agents, considering the diseases that are likely to become prevalent under future climatic scenarios. Recommendations on how to manage vegetable diseases under ongoing climate change are proposed to facilitate the adaptation and enhanced resilience of plants to the changing conditions. A proactive and comprehensive response to climate-induced challenges in vegetable farming is imperative to ensure food security and sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid38646634, year = {2024}, author = {Ben Zineb, A and Lamine, M and Khallef, A and Hamdi, H and Ahmed, T and Al-Jabri, H and Alsafran, M and Mliki, A and Sayadi, S and Gargouri, M}, title = {Harnessing rhizospheric core microbiomes from arid regions for enhancing date palm resilience to climate change effects.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1362722}, pmid = {38646634}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Date palm cultivation has thrived in the Gulf Cooperation Council region since ancient times, where it represents a vital sector in agricultural and socio-economic development. However, climate change conditions prevailing for decades in this area, next to rarefication of rain, hot temperatures, intense evapotranspiration, rise of sea level, salinization of groundwater, and intensification of cultivation, contributed to increase salinity in the soil as well as in irrigation water and to seriously threaten date palm cultivation sustainability. There are also growing concerns about soil erosion and its repercussions on date palm oases. While several reviews have reported on solutions to sustain date productivity, including genetic selection of suitable cultivars for the local harsh environmental conditions and the implementation of efficient management practices, no systematic review of the desertic plants' below-ground microbial communities and their potential contributions to date palm adaptation to climate change has been reported yet. Indeed, desert microorganisms are expected to address critical agricultural challenges and economic issues. Therefore, the primary objectives of the present critical review are to (1) analyze and synthesize current knowledge and scientific advances on desert plant-associated microorganisms, (2) review and summarize the impacts of their application on date palm, and (3) identify possible gaps and suggest relevant guidance for desert plant microbes' inoculation approach to sustain date palm cultivation within the Gulf Cooperation Council in general and in Qatar in particular.}, }
@article {pmid38646195, year = {2024}, author = {Grünig, M and Rammer, W and Albrich, K and André, F and Augustynczik, ALD and Bohn, F and Bouwman, M and Bugmann, H and Collalti, A and Cristal, I and Dalmonech, D and De Caceres, M and De Coligny, F and Dobor, L and Dollinger, C and Forrester, DI and Garcia-Gonzalo, J and González, JR and Hiltner, U and Hlásny, T and Honkaniemi, J and Huber, N and Jonard, M and Maria Jönsson, A and Lagergren, F and Nieberg, M and Mina, M and Mohren, F and Moos, C and Morin, X and Muys, B and Peltoniemi, M and Reyer, CP and Storms, I and Thom, D and Toïgo, M and Seidl, R}, title = {A harmonized database of European forest simulations under climate change.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {54}, number = {}, pages = {110384}, pmid = {38646195}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Process-based forest models combine biological, physical, and chemical process understanding to simulate forest dynamics as an emergent property of the system. As such, they are valuable tools to investigate the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems. Specifically, they allow testing of hypotheses regarding long-term ecosystem dynamics and provide means to assess the impacts of climate scenarios on future forest development. As a consequence, numerous local-scale simulation studies have been conducted over the past decades to assess the impacts of climate change on forests. These studies apply the best available models tailored to local conditions, parameterized and evaluated by local experts. However, this treasure trove of knowledge on climate change responses remains underexplored to date, as a consistent and harmonized dataset of local model simulations is missing. Here, our objectives were (i) to compile existing local simulations on forest development under climate change in Europe in a common database, (ii) to harmonize them to a common suite of output variables, and (iii) to provide a standardized vector of auxiliary environmental variables for each simulated location to aid subsequent investigations. Our dataset of European stand- and landscape-level forest simulations contains over 1.1 million simulation runs representing 135 million simulation years for more than 13,000 unique locations spread across Europe. The data were harmonized to consistently describe forest development in terms of stand structure (dominant height), composition (dominant species, admixed species), and functioning (leaf area index). Auxiliary variables provided include consistent daily climate information (temperature, precipitation, radiation, vapor pressure deficit) as well as information on local site conditions (soil depth, soil physical properties, soil water holding capacity, plant-available nitrogen). The present dataset facilitates analyses across models and locations, with the aim to better harness the valuable information contained in local simulations for large-scale policy support, and for fostering a deeper understanding of the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid38645713, year = {2024}, author = {Costin, A and Fisher, D and Harper, B and Nahhas, RW and Sullenbarger, J}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health: An Interactive Educational Session.}, journal = {MedEdPORTAL : the journal of teaching and learning resources}, volume = {20}, number = {}, pages = {11418}, pmid = {38645713}, issn = {2374-8265}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Mental Health ; *Curriculum ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Education, Medical, Undergraduate/methods ; *Students, Medical/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Psychiatry/education ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is the single biggest health threat facing humanity, with direct and indirect impacts on mental health, yet health impacts of climate change remain notably absent from most medical school curricula. We describe a timely interactive educational session on climate change and mental health that was implemented and studied on a medical student clinical psychiatry rotation.<br><br>METHODS: We developed a 1-hour introductory session on the mental health impacts of climate change and potential solutions. The session was delivered to third-year medical students on their 4-week clinical psychiatry rotation and included pre- and postsession survey questions assessing their knowledge, comfort, and readiness regarding the topic.<br><br>RESULTS: Seventy students participated in the session, with 49 students completing the pre- and postsession surveys, giving a response rate of 70%. The average score for the four Likert-scale questions on the survey increased from 2.7 presession to 3.9 postsession on a 5-point scale (1 = strongly disagree, 5 = strongly agree). All questions displayed statistically significant improvement. Qualitative analysis identified knowledge gained about the mental health impacts of climate change as the most important aspect of the session to students.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The introductory session effectively filled an urgent need in medical education curricula regarding climate change's effects on human health. Overall, distribution of and improvement upon this timely teaching content can serve a valuable role in medical student education as the effects of climate change, particularly on mental health, continue to progress throughout the century.}, }
@article {pmid38644897, year = {2024}, author = {Herbillon, F and Piou, C and Meynard, CN}, title = {An increase in management actions has compensated for past climate change effects on desert locust gregarization in western Africa.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e29231}, pmid = {38644897}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {In response to high population density, the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria, becomes gregarious and forms swarms that can cause significant damage to crops and pastures, threatening food security of human populations from western Africa to India. This switch from solitary to gregarious populations is highly dependent on favorable weather conditions. Climate change, which has been hypothesized to shift conditions towards increasing risks of gregarization, is therefore likely to have significant impacts on the spatial distribution and likelihood of outbreak events. However, the desert locust is intensely managed at large scales, which possibly counteracts any increased risk of outbreaks due to a more favorable climate. Consequently, understanding the changes in risks in the future involves teasing out the effects of climate change and management actions. Here we studied the dynamics of gregarization at the very early stages of potential outbreaks, in parallel with trends in climate and management, between 1985 and 2018 in western Africa. We used three different spatial scales, with the goal to have a better understanding of the potential effects of climate change per se while controlling for management. Our first approach was to look at a regional scale, where we observed an overall decrease in gregarization events. However, this scale includes very heterogeneous environments and management efforts. To consider this heterogeneity, we divided the area into a grid of 0.5° cells. For each cell, a climate analysis was performed for rainfall and temperature, with trends obtained by a harmonic decomposition model on monthly data. Analyses of gregarization showed only a few significant trends, both positive and negative, mainly found in western Mauritania where management effort has increased. To improve the statistical power, these cells were then grouped into larger homogeneous climatic clusters, i.e. groups of cells with similar climatic conditions and similar climatic trends over the study period. At this scale, gregarization events depend on the intersection between climate conditions and management efforts. The clusters where gregarization increased were also the ones with the highest increase of management. These results highlight the important effect of preventive management, which may counteract the positive effects of climate change on locust proliferation.}, }
@article {pmid38644583, year = {2024}, author = {Sasaki, M and Kingsbury, KM and Booth, DJ and Nagelkerken, I}, title = {Body size mediates trophic interaction strength of novel fish assemblages under climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.14079}, pmid = {38644583}, issn = {1365-2656}, support = {Discovery Projects DP170101722//Australian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Ecological similarity plays an important role in biotic interactions. Increased body size similarity of competing species, for example, increases the strength of their biotic interactions. Body sizes of many exothermic species are forecast to be altered under global warming, mediating shifts in existing trophic interactions among species, in particular for species with different thermal niches. Temperate rocky reefs along the southeast coast of Australia are located in a climate warming hotspot and now house a mixture of temperate native fish species and poleward range-extending tropical fishes (vagrants), creating novel species assemblages. Here, we studied the relationship between body size similarity and trophic overlap between individual temperate native and tropical vagrant fishes. Dietary niche overlap between vagrant and native fish species increased as their body sizes converged, based on both stomach content composition (short-term diet), stable isotope analyses (integrated long-term diet) and similarity in consumed prey sizes. We conclude that the warming-induced faster growth rates of tropical range-extending fish species at their cool water ranges will continue to converge their body size towards and strengthen their degree of trophic interactions and dietary overlap with co-occurring native temperate species under increasing ocean warming. The strengthening of these novel competitive interactions is likely to drive changes to temperate food web structures and reshuffle existing species community structures.}, }
@article {pmid38644013, year = {2024}, author = {Soana, E and Gervasio, MP and Granata, T and Colombo, D and Castaldelli, G}, title = {Climate change impacts on eutrophication in the Po River (Italy): Temperature-mediated reduction in nitrogen export but no effect on phosphorus.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {143}, number = {}, pages = {148-163}, doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2023.07.008}, pmid = {38644013}, issn = {1001-0742}, abstract = {Rivers worldwide are under stress from eutrophication and nitrate pollution, but the ecological consequences overlap with climate change, and the resulting interactions may be unexpected and still unexplored. The Po River basin (northern Italy) is one of the most agriculturally productive and densely populated areas in Europe. It remains unclear whether the climate change impacts on the thermal and hydrological regimes are already affecting nutrient dynamics and transport to coastal areas. The present work addresses the long-term trends (1992-2020) of nitrogen and phosphorus export by investigating both the annual magnitude and the seasonal patterns and their relationship with water temperature and discharge trajectories. Despite the constant diffuse and point sources in the basin, a marked decrease (-20%) in nitrogen export, mostly as nitrate, was recorded in the last decade compared to the 1990s, while no significant downward trend was observed for phosphorus. The water temperature of the Po River has warmed, with the most pronounced signals in summer (+0.13°C/year) and autumn (+0.16°C/year), together with the strongest increase in the number of warm days (+70%-80%). An extended seasonal window of warm temperatures and the persistence of low flow periods are likely to create favorable conditions for permanent nitrate removal via denitrification, resulting in a lower delivery of reactive nitrogen to the sea. The present results show that climate change-driven warming may enhance nitrogen processing by increasing respiratory river metabolism, thereby reducing export from spring to early autumn, when the risk of eutrophication in coastal zones is higher.}, }
@article {pmid38643787, year = {2024}, author = {Vasseur, L and Andrade, A}, title = {Using the Red List of Ecosystems and the Nature-based Solutions Global Standard as an integrated process for climate change adaptation in the Andean high mountains.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {379}, number = {1903}, pages = {20220326}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2022.0326}, pmid = {38643787}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Under anthropogenic pressures and climate change, most ecosystems are showing signs of reduced resilience. Unfortunately, some are more at risk of collapse and, without interventions, they may lose biodiversity, ecological integrity and ecosystem services. Here, we describe two tools that were developed under the auspices of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the Red List of Ecosystems and the Nature-based Solutions Global Standard, and their capacity to first identify the ecosystems at risk of collapse in a nation and then develop solutions based on nature to improve their resilience. Nature-based solutions include, for example ecosystem-based adaptation, where solutions are developed to meet the needs of the local people while protecting nature to ensure greater resilience of the social-ecological system, not only the natural ecosystem. We discuss through a case study in the Andean high mountains and páramo social-ecological system how these approaches have been used in Colombia. We then discuss lessons learned and challenges that may reduce the capacity of a community to initiate such interventions, such as national policies and funding restrictions. We also discuss through another early case in Ecuador the importance to adapt these types of interventions to the geographical and cultural context of the social-ecological systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.}, }
@article {pmid38643656, year = {2024}, author = {Tiitta, I and Cubelo, F and McDermott-Levy, R and Jaakkola, JJK and Kuosmanen, L}, title = {Climate change integration in nursing education: A scoping review.}, journal = {Nurse education today}, volume = {139}, number = {}, pages = {106210}, doi = {10.1016/j.nedt.2024.106210}, pmid = {38643656}, issn = {1532-2793}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The environmental impacts of climate change such as extreme weather, affects human physical and mental health; therefore, including climate change and health is important in nursing education. Despite the recognition of the link between climate change and health, this important knowledge has not yet been systematically integrated into nursing curricula, highlighting the need for immediate action to prepare nurses for these emerging human health challenges.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The objective of this review was to gain an overview of the existing literature exploring climate change in nursing curricula and answer following questions: DESIGN: Scoping review.<br><br>METHODS: A protocol was created and reported following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews Checklist (PRISMA-SrC). Five data bases were searched: CINAHL, Academic Search Premier, PubMed, Scopus and Cochraine, in addition to databases, grey literature was searched from different sources (reference lists, Google). A total of 1055 articles were derived from the search and 47 articles were included in this review. After selection results from selected studies on educational interventions and climate change education, and opinion pieces were charted, followed by a team review and consensus on the findings.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This review shows the importance of integrating the topic of climate change into nursing curricula. This integration of climate change-related content into nursing curricula is essential for preparing students, not just for their future roles in healthcare, but also their role in policy and climate justice. These results also reflect strong support from students for that integration. But while progress has been made, further research is essential to evaluate the impacts of these teaching strategies on nursing education.}, }
@article {pmid38643352, year = {2024}, author = {Bokharaeian, M and Toghdory, A and Ghoorchi, T}, title = {Evaluating the dose-dependent effects of curcumin nano-micelles on rumen fermentation, nitrogen metabolism, and nutrient digestibility in heat-stressed fattening lambs: Implications for climate change and sustainable animal production.}, journal = {Journal of animal physiology and animal nutrition}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jpn.13971}, pmid = {38643352}, issn = {1439-0396}, abstract = {Global warming threatens livestock production, especially in hot climates. This study evaluated the dose-dependent impacts of dietary curcumin nano-micelles (CNM) on rumen fermentation, nitrogen metabolism, and nutrient digestibility in heat-stressed fattening lambs. Thirty-two crossbred male lambs [ˆIle-de-France × (Dalagh × Romanov)] were utilized within the current study. The initial weight of lambs was documented as averaged by 31.2 ± 1.55 kg, while they were in their 4th to 5th months of age. Animals were fed increasing doses of dietary CNM (0, 20, 40, and 80 mg/day) over 97 days, under severe heat stress conditions with average temperature-humidity index (THI) of 24.5. Quadratic improvements (p < 0.01) occurred in weight gain, average daily gain (ADG), and feed conversion ratio (FCR) by 28.7%, 27.4%, and 23.9%, respectively, in the T40 group compared to the control. Additionally, T40 increased fiber digestion by 2.8% (p < 0.05). Furthermore, T40 quadratically improved parameters of rumen fermentation, including concentrations of NH3-N (p < 0.05), total volatile fatty acids (TVFA; p < 0.01), acetate (p < 0.05), and iso-valerate (p < 0.05), by 13.9%, 12.5%, 15.0%, and 43.5%, respectively, compared to the control. Quadratic increases were also observed in nitrogen balance (p < 0.05) and microbial protein synthesis (p < 0.01) by 19.8% and 37.6%, respectively, in the T40 group. Quadratic models estimated optimal CNM levels between 41.5 and 48.6 mg/day for multiple parameters. These findings indicate CNM at dose level of 40 mg/day could benefit heat-stressed lambs through enhanced rumen function and microbiota. Further research should refine ideal dosing for various species and production phases as higher levels adversely impacted fiber digestibility. Overall, CNM shows promise as a sustainable nutritional intervention for livestock production facing global warming.}, }
@article {pmid38643170, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, MZ and Han, Y and Xu, Z and Guo, W}, title = {Bias-corrected NESM3 global dataset for dynamical downscaling under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {399}, pmid = {38643170}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {42075152//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 41675105//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 42075170//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Dynamical downscaling is vital for generating finer-scale climate projections. Recently, a set of simulations under four types of 1.5/2 °C global warming scenarios are available with Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model (NESM). However, NESM3's bias in large-scale driving variables would degrade downscaled simulations. We corrected NESM3 bias in terms of climate mean and inter-annual variance against ERA5 using a novel bias correction method and then produced a set of bias-corrected datasets for dynamical downscaling. The bias-corrected NESM3 spans the historical period for 1979-2014 and four future scenarios (i.e., 1.5 °C overshoot for 2070-2100, stabilized 1.5/2 °C for 2070-2100, and transient 2 °C for 2031-2061) with 1.25° × 1.25° horizontal resolution at six-hourly intervals. Our evaluation suggests that bias-corrected NESM3 outperforms the original NESM3 in the climatological mean of seasonal mean and variability, as well as climate extreme events during the historical period. This bias-corrected dataset is expected to generate more reliable projections for regional climate and environment under 1.5/2 °C global warming.}, }
@article {pmid38642947, year = {2024}, author = {Severoni, S and Hiam, L and Garry, S}, title = {Climate change and health: displaced and migrant populations must be included.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {403}, number = {10436}, pages = {1537-1538}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00243-5}, pmid = {38642947}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid38641895, year = {2024}, author = {Reyes-Ortiz, M and Lira-Noriega, A and Osorio-Olvera, L and Luna-Vega, I and Williams-Linera, G}, title = {Leaf functional traits and ecological niche of Fagus grandifolia and Oreomunnea mexicana in natural forests and plantings as a proxy of climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e16322}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.16322}, pmid = {38641895}, issn = {1537-2197}, abstract = {PREMISE: Functional traits reflect species' responses to environmental variation and the breadth of their ecological niches. Fagus grandifolia and Oreomunnea mexicana have restricted distribution in upper montane cloud forests (1700-2000 m a.s.l.) in Mexico. These species were introduced into plantings at lower elevations (1200-1600 m a.s.l.) that have climates predicted for montane forests in 2050 and 2070. The aim was to relate morphological leaf traits to the ecological niche structure of each species.<br><br>METHODS: Leaf functional traits (leaf area, specific leaf area [SLA], thickness, and toughness) were analyzed in forests and plantings. Atmospheric circulation models and representative concentration pathways (RCPs: 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) were used to assess future climate conditions. Trait-niche relationships were analyzed by measuring the Mahalanobis distance (MD) from the forests and the plantings to the ecological niche centroid (ENC).<br><br>RESULTS: For both species, leaf area and SLA were higher and toughness lower in plantings at lower elevation relative to those in higher-elevation forests, and thickness was similar. Leaf traits varied with distance from sites to the ENC. Forests and plantings have different environmental locations regarding the ENC, but forests are closer (MD 0.34-0.58) than plantings (MD 0.50-0.70) for both species.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Elevation as a proxy for expected future climate conditions influenced the functional traits of both species, and trait patterns related to the structure of their ecological niches were consistent. The use of distances to the ENC is a promising approach to explore variability in species' functional traits and phenotypic responses in optimal versus marginal environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38641749, year = {2024}, author = {Prada, D and Baccarelli, AA and Kupsco, A and Parks, RM}, title = {Climate change and health: understanding mechanisms will inform mitigation and prevention strategies.}, journal = {Nature medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38641749}, issn = {1546-170X}, support = {R00 ES033742/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R00 ES030749/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid38641475, year = {2024}, author = {Addison, SL and Rúa, MA and Smaill, SJ and Singh, BK and Wakelin, SA}, title = {Partner or perish: tree microbiomes and climate change.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2024.03.008}, pmid = {38641475}, issn = {1878-4372}, abstract = {Understanding the complex relationships between plants, their microbiomes, and environmental changes is crucial for improving growth and survival, especially for long-lived tree species. Trees, like other plants, maintain close associations with a multitude of microorganisms on and within their tissues, forming a 'holobiont'. However, a comprehensive framework for detailed tree-microbiome dynamics, and the implications for climate adaptation, is currently lacking. This review identifies gaps in the existing literature, emphasizing the need for more research to explore the coevolution of the holobiont and the full extent of climate change impact on tree growth and survival. Advancing our knowledge of plant-microbial interactions presents opportunities to enhance tree adaptability and mitigate adverse impacts of climate changes on trees.}, }
@article {pmid38640936, year = {2024}, author = {Chowdhury, R and Talukder, B and Basta, PC and Olivero-Verbel, J and Polson-Edwards, K and Galvao, L and Espinal, C}, title = {Saving the Amazon in South America by a regional approach on climate change: the need to consider the health perspective.}, journal = {The Lancet. Global health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00125-6}, pmid = {38640936}, issn = {2214-109X}, }
@article {pmid38639422, year = {2024}, author = {da Silva Freitas, L and de Moura, FR and Buffarini, R and Feás, X and da Silva Júnior, FMR}, title = {The relationship and consequences of venomous animal encounters in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {589-591}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4919}, pmid = {38639422}, issn = {1551-3793}, support = {307791/2023-8//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 001//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; }, }
@article {pmid38638477, year = {2024}, author = {Pinna, S and Longo, D and Zanobini, P and Lorini, C and Bonaccorsi, G and Baccini, M and Cecchi, F}, title = {How to communicate with older adults about climate change: a systematic review.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {1347935}, pmid = {38638477}, issn = {2296-2565}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Although older adults are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, they seem to be overall less concerned about it, and less inclined to support climate policies. The study aims to identify the communication strategies that have been evaluated in promoting awareness and/or climate friendly behaviors in older adults.<br><br>METHODS: We searched multiple electronic databases for studies that evaluated the effects of any interventions aimed at communicating climate change to older persons (over 65&#x2009;years) and assessed the results as awareness and /or behavioral changes. We selected quantitative, qualitative and mixed methods studies, and we also included systematic reviews for cross-referencing. Risk of bias of included studies was evaluated using different tools according to the study design.<br><br>RESULTS: From a total of 5,486 articles, only 3 studies were included. One mixed-method study engaged older adults to assess the community vulnerability to climate change and to develop adaptation recommendations based on their perspectives; one qualitative study conducted focus groups to identify the more effective language, values and themes based on participants' responses to narratives; one quantitative study utilized a 360-degree audio-visual platform allowing users to engage with immersive visualizations of sea-level rise scenarios.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Despite the paucity of literature, this review demonstrates the potential for different strategies to increase the awareness of older persons about climate change. The involvement of older adults in the communication process, the identification of their priorities, and the integration of technology in their daily lives are promising approaches but more research, including both quantitative and qualitative studies is recommended on this topic.<br><br>For further details about the protocol, this systematic review has been registered on PROSPERO on July 1, 2023 (https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42023438256).}, }
@article {pmid38638367, year = {2024}, author = {Tennakoon, S and Apan, A and Maraseni, T}, title = {Unravelling the impact of climate change on honey bees: An ensemble modelling approach to predict shifts in habitat suitability in Queensland, Australia.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e11300}, pmid = {38638367}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate-only model, an environment-only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020-2039 and 2060-2079. The climate-only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment-only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020-2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060-2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry.}, }
@article {pmid38637548, year = {2024}, author = {Hueholt, DM and Barnes, EA and Hurrell, JW and Morrison, AL}, title = {Speed of environmental change frames relative ecological risk in climate change and climate intervention scenarios.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {3332}, pmid = {38637548}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Stratospheric aerosol injection is a potential method of climate intervention to reduce climate risk as decarbonization efforts continue. However, possible ecosystem impacts from the strategic design of hypothetical intervention scenarios are poorly understood. Two recent Earth system model simulations depict policy-relevant stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios with similar global temperature targets, but a 10-year delay in intervention deployment. Here we show this delay leads to distinct ecological risk profiles through climate speeds, which describe the rate of movement of thermal conditions. On a planetary scale, climate speeds in the simulation where the intervention maintains temperature are not statistically distinguishable from preindustrial conditions. In contrast, rapid temperature reduction following delayed deployment produces climate speeds over land beyond either a preindustrial baseline or no-intervention climate change with present policy. The area exposed to threshold climate speeds places different scenarios in context to their relative ecological risks. Our results support discussion of tradeoffs and timescales in future scenario design and decision-making.}, }
@article {pmid38637442, year = {2024}, author = {Zaremba, D and Michałowski, JM and Klöckner, CA and Marchewka, A and Wierzba, M}, title = {Development and validation of the Emotional Climate Change Stories (ECCS) stimuli set.}, journal = {Behavior research methods}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38637442}, issn = {1554-3528}, support = {2019/34/H/HS6/00677//Norway Grants/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is widely recognised as an urgent issue, and the number of people concerned about it is increasing. While emotions are among the strongest predictors of behaviour change in the face of climate change, researchers have only recently begun to investigate this topic experimentally. This may be due to the lack of standardised, validated stimuli that would make studying such a topic in experimental settings possible. Here, we introduce a novel Emotional Climate Change Stories (ECCS) stimuli set. ECCS consists of 180 realistic short stories about climate change, designed to evoke five distinct emotions-anger, anxiety, compassion, guilt and hope-in addition to neutral stories. The stories were created based on qualitative data collected in two independent studies: one conducted among individuals highly concerned about climate change, and another one conducted in the general population. The stories were rated on the scales of valence, arousal, anger, anxiety, compassion, guilt and hope in the course of three independent studies. First, we explored the underlying structure of ratings (Study 1; n = 601). Then we investigated the replicability (Study 2; n = 307) and cross-cultural validity (Study 3; n = 346) of ECCS. The collected ratings were highly consistent across the studies. Furthermore, we found that the level of climate change concern explained the intensity of elicited emotions. The ECCS dataset is available in Polish, Norwegian and English and can be employed for experimental research on climate communication, environmental attitudes, climate action-taking, or mental health and wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid38637120, year = {2024}, author = {van Daalen, KR and Wyma, N and Schauer-Berg, J and Blom, IM and Mattijsen, J and Othman, R and Eissa, M and Parks, RM and Wyns, A and Aboushady, AT and Hassan, M and Ezzine, T and Khan, S and Zayed, ME and Neggazi, S and Alqodmani, L and Lowe, R}, title = {The global health community at international climate change negotiations.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015292}, pmid = {38637120}, issn = {2059-7908}, }
@article {pmid38636591, year = {2024}, author = {Kim, J and Rouadi, PW}, title = {The relationship of climate change to rhinitis.}, journal = {The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. In practice}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaip.2024.04.012}, pmid = {38636591}, issn = {2213-2201}, abstract = {Evidence is mounting that climate change is having a significant impact on exacerbations of rhinitis. Concomitantly, the prevalence of allergic rhinitis is increasing at an accelerated rate. We herein explore the impact of carbon dioxide, barometric pressure and humidity changes, anthropogenic pollutants, on aeroallergens and rhinitis hypersensitivity. Important immune mechanisms underlying the climate-driven effects on rhinitis are discussed. Also, climate change is shifting ecological zones and seasons, increasing weather extremes, and altering regional atmospheric and environmental conditions. The direct impact of these factors on promoting allergic and nonallergic rhinitis are reviewed.}, }
@article {pmid38633463, year = {2024}, author = {Huang, H and Zhou, Y and Kang, X and Zhu, X and Tong, X}, title = {Editorial: Water and carbon dynamics, ecosystem stability of forest and grassland in response to climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1306381}, pmid = {38633463}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid38633456, year = {2024}, author = {Skvareninova, J and Sitko, R and Vido, J and Snopková, Z and Skvarenina, J}, title = {Phenological response of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) to climate change in the Western Carpathian climatic-geographical zones.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1242695}, pmid = {38633456}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The paper analyzes the results of 26 years (1996-2021) of phenological observations of the vegetative organs of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the Western Carpathians. It evaluates the influence of the heterogeneity of this territory, including relief and elevation, based on climatic-geographical types.<br><br>METHODS: Phenological stages, including leaf unfolding, full leaves, leaf coloring, and leaf fall, were monitored at 40 phenological stations across eight elevation zones. The study assesses trends in the occurrence of phenological stages, the length of the growing season, and phenological elevation gradients.<br><br>RESULTS: The results indicate a statistically significant earlier onset of spring phenological phases and delay in autumn phases, resulting in an average extension of the beech growing season by 12 days. Our findings confirm that the lengthening of the growing season due to warming, as an expression of climate change, is predominantly attributed to the warming in the spring months. The detected delayed onset of autumn phenophases was not due to warming in the autumn months, but other environmental factors influence it. The trend of elongation of the growing season (p<0.01) is observed in all elevation zones, with a less significant trend observed only in zones around 400 and 600 m a.s.l, signaling changes in environmental conditions across most of the elevation spectrum. Moreover, the heterogeneity of climatic-geographical types within each elevation zone increases the variability in the duration of the growing season for sites with similar elevations. By extending the growing season, it is assumed that the beech area will be changed to locations with optimal environmental conditions, especially in terms of adverse climatic events (late spring frosts, drought) during the growing season. The phenological elevation gradients reveal an earlier onset of 2.2 days per 100 m for spring phenophases and a delay of 1.1-2.9 days per 100 m for autumn phenophases.<br><br>DISCUSSION: These findings highlight the specific environmental conditions of European beech in the Western Carpathians and their potential for anticipating changes in its original area. Additionally, these observations can aid in forecasting the further development of phenological manifestations related to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38632918, year = {2024}, author = {Aylward, B and Cunsolo, A and Clayton, S and Minor, K and Cooper, M and Chatwood, S and Harper, S}, title = {Examining the mental health impacts of climate change on young people in Canada: a national cross-sectional survey.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S3}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00068-8}, pmid = {38632918}, issn = {2542-5196}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses a substantial threat to the mental wellbeing of young people. Population-level research is urgently needed to help inform policies and interventions to ensure that young people are not burdened by long-term mental health impacts from climate change. We sought to identify the prevalence, distribution, and factors associated with climate change-related mental and emotional health outcomes among young people (aged 13-34 years) in Canada.<br><br>METHODS: This study is part of a larger cross-sectional survey, which examined mental and emotional health responses to climate change among individuals aged 13 years or older from across Canada. We used a multi-stage, multi-stratified random probability sampling procedure. Participants were randomly recruited through either an addressed letter or a telephone call. Online and telephone questionnaires were used to interview individuals in English, French, or Inuktitut between April 1, 2022, and March 31, 2023. Data were weighted by age and province using population estimates from Statistics Canada and analysed using descriptive statistics, factor analyses, and multivariable regression analyses.<br><br>FINDINGS: The full survey included 2476 participants, with a subgroup of 409 young people. Of the 401 respondents who provided their gender identity, 215 (54%) identified as cisgender women, 167 (42%) identified as cisgender men, and 19 (5%) identified as non-binary. Preliminary results suggest that young people in Canada experience a wide range of climate-related emotional and mental health outcomes. More than 70% of respondents in the young people subgroup reported having at least mild levels of sadness, anger, worry, anxiety, concern, helplessness, hopelessness, or powerlessness related to climate change. The severity of climate-related emotional responses differed by gender, with non-binary respondents and cisgender women reporting higher average levels of distress than cisgender men. Regional differences were also observed, with northern regions and urban locations reporting more severe reactions.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: This study builds on the understanding of the burden of climate change on the mental health of young people. If unaddressed, the impact of this burden could have long-standing and wide-reaching public health and related socioeconomic effects.<br><br>FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, ArcticNet, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council Doctoral Fellowship, Izaak Walton Killam Memorial Scholarship, and Alberta Innovates Graduate Student Scholarship.}, }
@article {pmid38632905, year = {2024}, author = {Hounkpatin, H and Nieto-Sanchez, C and Castellano Pleguezuelo, V and Polman, K and Marchal, B}, title = {How are health systems in sub-Saharan Africa adapting to protect human health from climate change threats? A scoping review and case study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S10}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00075-5}, pmid = {38632905}, issn = {2542-5196}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa stands out as one of the regions most affected by the climate crisis, while it has contributed to the problem only marginally. The foreseen negative effect on health adds great stress to the already overburdened health systems. Health systems' adaptation to climate change is, therefore, urgently needed to better protect human health. There is, however, scant evidence on how adaption is being planned and implemented in Africa. The aim of this study was to review the literature on health system adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa.<br><br>METHODS: In this scoping review and case study, we first carried out the scoping review, searching for publications on adaptation measures using the PubMed, Science Direct, and Web of Science databases on July 1, 2023. We included papers in English and French that addressed the adaptation of health systems in countries in sub-Saharan Africa without time limit. Second, we did a case study of the design and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan of Benin, with a specific focus on the policy-making process underlying the plan, whereby we used the health policy triangle as a policy analysis framework. Data were collected through a document review of national policy plans, reports, and evaluations.<br><br>FINDINGS: A total of 14 papers met the inclusion criteria, showing that climate change adaptation remains a niche in the literature for sub-Saharan Africa. Most included papers were authored by individuals from high-income countries. Health system adaptation measures cover seven domains: health systems strengthening; policy and planning; financing and implementation; information and capacity building; societal resilience; disaster risk prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery; and mitigation. The review found that the dominant role of global agencies in supporting or steering health system adaptation planning contributes to policy mimicry across countries, as confirmed by the case study of the adaptation plan in Benin. Benin's National Adaptation Plan prioritised three climate hazards: heat, drought, and flooding. Although the financial and technical inputs of international agencies effectively support Benin's adaptation planning, these inputs might induce a more narrow focus that does not fully respond to Benin's needs in terms of climate shocks and adaptation priorities.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Health systems in sub-Saharan Africa are already adapting to climate change. Future research could focus on how national governments could develop adaptation plans that are responsive to local needs by making the needs analysis and priority-setting processes more inclusive of local stakeholders.<br><br>FUNDING: The Belgian Directorate-General for Development Cooperation and Humanitarian Aid.}, }
@article {pmid38632481, year = {2024}, author = {Kotz, M and Levermann, A and Wenz, L}, title = {The economic commitment of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {628}, number = {8008}, pages = {551-557}, pmid = {38632481}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons[1-6]. Here we use recent empirical findings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation, including daily variability and extremes[7,8]. Using an empirical approach that provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11-29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly through changes in average temperature, but accounting for further climatic components raises estimates by approximately 50% and leads to stronger regional heterogeneity. Committed losses are projected for all regions except those at very high latitudes, at which reductions in temperature variability bring benefits. The largest losses are committed at lower latitudes in regions with lower cumulative historical emissions and lower present-day income.}, }
@article {pmid38631783, year = {2024}, author = {Nori-Sarma, A and Galea, S}, title = {Climate change and mental health: a call for a global research agenda.}, journal = {The lancet. Psychiatry}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {316-317}, doi = {10.1016/S2215-0366(24)00098-1}, pmid = {38631783}, issn = {2215-0374}, }
@article {pmid38631729, year = {2024}, author = {Kotcher, J and Patel, L and Wheat, S and Philipsborn, R and Maibach, E}, title = {How to communicate about climate change with patients.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {385}, number = {}, pages = {e079831}, doi = {10.1136/bmj-2024-079831}, pmid = {38631729}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid38631466, year = {2024}, author = {Iqbal, S and Xu, J and Saleem Arif, M and Shakoor, A and Worthy, FR and Heng, G and Khan, S and Bu, D and Nader, S and Ranjitkar, S}, title = {Could soil microplastic pollution exacerbate climate change? A meta-analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118945}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118945}, pmid = {38631466}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Microplastics pollution and climate change are primarily investigated in isolation, despite their joint threat to the environment. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are emitted during: the production of plastic and rubber, the use and degradation of plastic, and after contamination of environment. This is the first meta-analysis to assess underlying causal relationships and the influence of likely mediators. We included 60 peer-reviewed empirical studies; estimating GHGs emissions effect size and global warming potential (GWP), according to key microplastics properties and soil conditions. We investigated interrelationships with microbe functional gene expression. Overall, microplastics contamination was associated with increased GHGs emissions, with the strongest effect (60%) on CH4 emissions. Polylactic-acid caused 32% higher CO2 emissions, but only 1% of total GWP. Phenol-formaldehyde had the greatest (175%) GWP via 182% increased N2O emissions. Only polystyrene resulted in reduced GWP by 50%, due to N2O mitigation. Polyethylene caused the maximum (60%) CH4 emissions. Shapes of microplastics differed in GWP: fibre had the greatest GWP (66%) whereas beads reduced GWP by 53%. Films substantially increased emissions of all GHGs: 14% CO2, 10% N2O and 60% CH4. Larger-sized microplastics had higher GWP (125%) due to their 9% CO2 and 63% N2O emissions. GWP rose sharply if soil microplastics content exceeded 0.5%. Higher CO2 emissions, ranging from 4% to 20%, arose from soil which was either fine, saturated or had high-carbon content. Higher N2O emissions, ranging from 10% to 95%, arose from soils that had either medium texture, saturated water content or low-carbon content. Both CO2 and N2O emissions were 43% to 56% higher from soils with neutral pH. We conclude that microplastics contamination can cause raised GHGs emissions, posing a risk of exacerbating climate-change. We show clear links between GHGs emissions, microplastics properties, soil characteristics and soil microbe functional gene expression. Further research is needed regarding underlying mechanisms and processes.}, }
@article {pmid38631093, year = {2024}, author = {Zhu, Q and Zhou, M and Zare Sakhvidi, MJ and Yang, S and Chen, S and Feng, P and Chen, Z and Xu, Z and Liu, Q and Yang, J}, title = {Projecting heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to human-induced climate change in China.}, journal = {EBioMedicine}, volume = {103}, number = {}, pages = {105119}, doi = {10.1016/j.ebiom.2024.105119}, pmid = {38631093}, issn = {2352-3964}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been found to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and temperature variability. This study aimed to assess the extent to which human-induced climate change contributes to future heat-related CVD burdens.<br><br>METHODS: Daily data on CVD mortality and temperature were collected in 161 Chinese communities from 2007 to 2013. The association between heat and CVD mortality was established using a two-stage time-series design. Under the natural forcing, human-induced, and combined scenarios, we then separately projected excess cause-/age-/region-/education-specific mortality from future high temperature in 2010-2100, assuming no adaptation and population changes.<br><br>FINDINGS: Under shared socioeconomic pathway with natural forcing scenario (SSP2-4.5-nat), heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths decreased slightly from 3.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.3, 5.8] in the 2010s to 2.8% (95% eCI: 0.1, 5.2) in the 2090s, with relative change of&#xa0;-0.4% (95% eCI:&#xa0;-0.8, 0.0). However, for combined natural and human-induced forcings, this estimate would surge to 8.9% (95% eCI: 1.5, 15.7), 14.4% (95% eCI: 1.5, 25.3), 21.3% (95% eCI:&#xa0;-0.6, 39.4), and 28.7% (95% eCI:&#xa0;-3.3, 48.0) in the 2090s under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. When excluding the natural forcing, the number of human-induced heat-related CVD deaths would increase from approximately eight thousand (accounting for 31% of total heat-related CVD deaths) in the 2010s to 33,052 (68%), 63,283 (80%), 101,091 (87%), and 141,948 (90%) in the 2090s under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Individuals with stroke, females, the elderly, people living in rural areas, and those with lower education level would exhibit heightened susceptibility to future high temperature. In addition, Southern and Eastern regions of China were expected to experience a faster increase in heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Human activities would significantly amplify the future burden of heat-related CVD. Our study findings suggested that active adaptation and mitigation measures towards future warming could yield substantial health benefits for the patients with CVD.<br><br>FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China.}, }
@article {pmid38629694, year = {2024}, author = {Andreae, M and Shultz, JM and Shepherd, JM and Espinel, Z and Shapiro, LT}, title = {Weathering the storms of climate change: Preparing persons with disabilities and the physiatrists who provide their care for extreme hurricanes.}, journal = {PM &amp; R : the journal of injury, function, and rehabilitation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/pmrj.13159}, pmid = {38629694}, issn = {1934-1563}, abstract = {Climate-driven disasters have disproportionate and often devastating consequences on individuals with disabilities. Warming ocean and air temperatures are fueling more extreme tropical cyclones, further endangering those living in at-risk regions. Although hurricane preparedness is particularly critical for those with functional impairments and/or special medical needs, studies show such persons are less ready for disasters than the general population. This review calls attention to the time-urgent need to improve hurricane readiness among persons with disabilities. It summarizes evidence that climate change is resulting in cyclonic storms that are increasingly jeopardizing the health and safety of affected persons and reflects on how this trend may compound the particular hardships those with disabilities experience during times of disaster. It identifies unique storm-related challenges faced by patient populations commonly cared for by physiatrists, including those with stroke, traumatic brain injury, multiple sclerosis, spinal cord injury, and limb loss. Available research pertaining to the gaps in emergency preparedness practices among persons with disabilities is reviewed as are potential strategies to mitigate barriers to achieving disaster readiness and resilience. Lastly, the review provides physiatrists with a comprehensive guide for optimally safeguarding their patients before, during, and after catastrophic hurricanes.}, }
@article {pmid38628958, year = {2024}, author = {Makuyana, T and Dube, K}, title = {Mapping disability and climate change knowledge base in Scopus using bibliometric analysis.}, journal = {African journal of disability}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1339}, pmid = {38628958}, issn = {2223-9170}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and disability are rarely addressed by academic scholars within the spectrum of disabilities and as a single field of study. However, the intersectionality of disability exacerbates the vulnerability of people with disabilities to climate change as climate change frameworks in the Global North and South continue excluding them.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This study aims to map the research-based knowledge housed in Scopus on disability and climate change. At the same time, it provides insights into innovative (novelty) ways of thinking and proposes a futuristic research agenda.<br><br>METHOD: A bibliometric analysis was conducted on Scopus-indexed articles using VOSviewer to map co-occurrences of keywords and co-authorship, and a manual thematic-scoping review augmented the data analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: The disability and climate change debate as a joint study evolved from concern among health practitioners to human rights and social inclusion.<br><br>CONCLUSION: In conclusion, there is a skewness towards mental health and medical sociology lens, while other sub-groups of persons with disabilities are yet to be engaged in co-creating disability-inclusive climate change knowledge.<br><br>CONTRIBUTION: Thematic areas emerged as gaps that future studies embed principles enshrined in the United Nations Convention for the Rights of Persons with Disabilities and the Sustainable Development Goals.}, }
@article {pmid38628548, year = {2024}, author = {Ribeiro, V and Grossi, E and Levin-Carrion, Y and Sahu, N and DallaPiazza, M}, title = {An Interactive Mapping and Case Discussion Seminar Introducing Medical Students to Climate Change, Environmental Justice, and Health.}, journal = {MedEdPORTAL : the journal of teaching and learning resources}, volume = {20}, number = {}, pages = {11398}, pmid = {38628548}, issn = {2374-8265}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Integrating climate change and health into a medical school curriculum is critical for future physicians who will manage health crises caused by a rapidly changing climate. Although medical schools have increasingly included climate change in the curriculum, there remains a need to address the link between the climate crisis, environmental justice, and historical policies that shape environmental health disparities in local communities.<br><br>METHODS: In academic years 2021-2022 (AY22) and 2022-2023 (AY23), second-year medical students participated in a 2.5-hour seminar utilizing didactic teaching and small breakout groups that included interactive mapping activities and case scenarios. Learner knowledge and attitudes were self-assessed using pre- and postcurriculum surveys and a quiz. Qualitative thematic and content analysis was used to evaluate short-answer quiz responses and feedback.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 357 students who participated in the seminar, 208 (58%) completed both the precurriculum and postcurriculum surveys. Self-assessed ability increased significantly for all educational objectives across both years. Attitudes on the importance of climate change knowledge for patient health also improved from a mean of 3.5 precurriculum to 4.2 postcurriculum (difference = 0.7, p < .01) in AY22 and from 3.6 pre- to 4.3 postcurriculum (difference = 0.7, p < .01) in AY23 on a 5-point Likert scale.<br><br>DISCUSSION: This climate change and health session highlighting the link between environmental policy and climate change health vulnerability in the local context was successful in improving students' self-assessed ability across all stated educational objectives. Students cited the interactive small-group sessions as a major strength.}, }
@article {pmid38627938, year = {2024}, author = {Islam, MT and Kamal, ASMM and Islam, MM and Hossain, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on dengue incidence in Singapore: time-series seasonal analysis.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2024.2337827}, pmid = {38627938}, issn = {1369-1619}, abstract = {This study aimed to identify the meteorological factors that contribute to dengue epidemics. The monthly incidence of dengue was used as the outcome variable, while maximum temperature, humidity, precipitation, and sunshine hours were used as independent variables. The results showed a consistent increase in monthly dengue cases from 2013 to 2021, with seasonal patterns observed in stationary time-series data. The ARIMA (2, 1, 3) × seasonal (0, 1, 2)12 model was used based on its lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values. The analysis revealed that a 1-unit increase in rainfall was positively correlated with a small 0.062-unit increase in dengue cases, whereas a 1-unit increase in humidity was negatively associated, leading to a substantial reduction of approximately 16.34 cases. This study highlights the importance of incorporating weather data into national dengue prevention programs to enhance public awareness and to promote recommended safety measures.}, }
@article {pmid38627507, year = {2024}, author = {Porcher, S}, title = {The world needs a COP for water like the one for climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {628}, number = {8008}, pages = {502}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-01085-6}, pmid = {38627507}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38626686, year = {2024}, author = {Morales, M and Arp, HPH and Castro, G and Asimakopoulos, AG and Sørmo, E and Peters, G and Cherubini, F}, title = {Eco-toxicological and climate change effects of sludge thermal treatments: Pathways towards zero pollution and negative emissions.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {470}, number = {}, pages = {134242}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2024.134242}, pmid = {38626686}, issn = {1873-3336}, abstract = {The high moisture content and the potential presence of hazardous organic compounds (HOCs) and metals (HMs) in sewage sludge (SS) pose technical and regulatory challenges for its circular economy valorisation. Thermal treatments are expected to reduce the volume of SS while producing energy and eliminating HOCs. In this study, we integrate quantitative analysis of SS concentration of 12 HMs and 61 HOCs, including organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs) and per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), with life-cycle assessment to estimate removal efficiency of pollutants, climate change mitigation benefits and toxicological effects of existing and alternative SS treatments (involving pyrolysis, incineration, and/or anaerobic digestion). Conventional SS treatment leaves between 24 % and 40 % of OPFRs unabated, while almost no degradation occurs for PFAS. Thermal treatments can degrade more than 93% of target OPFRs and 95 % of target PFAS (with the rest released to effluents). The different treatments affect how HMs are emitted across environmental compartments. Conventional treatments also show higher climate change impacts than thermal treatments. Overall, thermal treatments can effectively reduce the HOCs emitted to the environment while delivering negative emissions (from about -56 to -111 kg CO2-eq per tonne of sludge, when pyrolysis is involved) and producing renewable energy from heat integration and valorization.}, }
@article {pmid38626039, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, J and Jiang, X and Ma, Y and Liu, M and Shama, Z and Li, J and Huang, Y}, title = {Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {4}, pages = {e0301751}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0301751}, pmid = {38626039}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Setaria italica (S. italica, Linnaeus, 1753) is a drought-resistant, barren-tolerant, and widely adapted C-4 crop that plays a vital role in maintaining agricultural and economic stability in arid and barren regions of the world. However, the potential habitat of S. italica under current and future climate scenarios remains to be explored. Predicting the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica and clarifying its ecological requirements can help promote sustainable agriculture, which is crucial for addressing the global food crisis. In this study, we predicted the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica based on 3,154 global distribution records using the Maxent model and ArcGIS software. We assessed the constraints on its potential distribution based on the contribution of environmental factors variables. The predictive accuracy of the Maxent model was evaluated using AUC values, TSS values, and Kappa statistics, respectively. The results showed that the Maxent model had a high prediction accuracy, and the simulation results were also reliable; the total suitable habitats of S. italica is 5.54×107 km2, which mainly included the United States (North America), Brazil (South America), Australia (Oceania), China, India (Asia), and the Russian Federation (Europe). The most suitable habitat of S. italica was 0.52×107 km2, accounting for 9.44% of the total areas, mainly in the United States, India, the Russian Federation, and China. Soil and precipitation (driest monthly precipitation, hottest seasonal precipitation) are the most critical factors limiting the potential distribution of S. italica. Compared with the modern potential distribution, we predict that the four future climate change scenarios will result in varying reductions in the possible geographic ranges of S. italica. Overall, climate change may significantly affect the global distribution of S. italica, altering its worldwide production and trade patterns.}, }
@article {pmid38625427, year = {2024}, author = {Grassi, A and Pagliarani, I and Avio, L and Cristani, C and Rossi, F and Turrini, A and Giovannetti, M and Agnolucci, M}, title = {Bioprospecting for plant resilience to climate change: mycorrhizal symbionts of European and American beachgrass (Ammophila arenaria and Ammophila breviligulata) from maritime sand dunes.}, journal = {Mycorrhiza}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38625427}, issn = {1432-1890}, abstract = {Climate change and global warming have contributed to increase terrestrial drought, causing negative impacts on agricultural production. Drought stress may be addressed using novel agronomic practices and beneficial soil microorganisms, such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), able to enhance plant use efficiency of soil resources and water and increase plant antioxidant defence systems. Specific traits functional to plant resilience improvement in dry conditions could have developed in AMF growing in association with xerophytic plants in maritime sand dunes, a drought-stressed and low-fertility environment. The most studied of such plants are European beachgrass (Ammophila arenaria Link), native to Europe and the Mediterranean basin, and American beachgrass (Ammophila breviligulata Fern.), found in North America. Given the critical role of AMF for the survival of these beachgrasses, knowledge of the composition of AMF communities colonizing their roots and rhizospheres and their distribution worldwide is fundamental for the location and isolation of native AMF as potential candidates to be tested for promoting crop growth and resilience under climate change. This review provides quantitative and qualitative data on the occurrence of AMF communities of A. arenaria and A. breviligulata growing in European, Mediterranean basin and North American maritime sand dunes, as detected by morphological studies, trap culture isolation and molecular methods, and reports on their symbiotic performance. Moreover, the review indicates the dominant AMF species associated with the two Ammophila species and the common species to be further studied to assess possible specific traits increasing their host plants resilience toward drought stress under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38625183, year = {2023}, author = {Newsome, D and Newsome, KB and Miller, SA}, title = {Teaching, Learning, and Climate Change: Anticipated Impacts and Mitigation Strategies for Educators.}, journal = {Behavior and social issues}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-23}, doi = {10.1007/s42822-023-00129-2}, pmid = {38625183}, issn = {2376-6786}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change present numerous risks to the present and future state of teaching and learning. Natural disasters such as hurricanes, heat waves, flooding, blizzards, wildfires, sea level rise, and droughts threaten our ability to produce the learning outcomes promised to our pupils. Taking action to adapt to imminent climate-related challenges and mitigating measures that provoke and prolong ecological challenges is critical to the survival of these cultural institutions. Paradoxically, centers of teaching and learning can be seen as both victims of climate change as well as an instrumental part of the solution. Providing an efficient and effective education to the world's youth is a catalyst for the innovations that future generations of skilled professionals will use to combat climate change. Educational settings are also crucial venues for raising social awareness about anthropogenic climate change to undermine the complacency and denialism that have stagnated the global response to this crisis thus far. This paper incorporates suggestions from climate scientists and learning scientists about how to change how we teach, where we teach, and what we teach to ensure teaching enterprises survive and thrive in the face of a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid38624016, year = {2024}, author = {Miller, J and Howard, C and Alqodmani, L}, title = {Advocating for a Healthy Response to Climate Change - COP28 and the Health Community.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp2314835}, pmid = {38624016}, issn = {1533-4406}, }
@article {pmid38623518, year = {2024}, author = {Banda, LB and Dejene, SW and Mzumara, TI and McCarthy, C and Pangapanga-Phiri, I}, title = {An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e11283}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.11283}, pmid = {38623518}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to endemic and endangered montane bird species with limited elevation and temperature ranges. Understanding their responses to changes in climate is essential for informing conservation actions. This study focused on the montane dwelling Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) in Malawi, aiming to identify key factors affecting its distribution and predicting its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, we found that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables that influenced the distribution of this species. Across future climate scenarios, the species' geographic range declined where range losses varied from 57.74% (2050 RCP 6.0) to 82.88% (2070 RCP 6.0). We estimate its current range size to be 549 km[2] which is lower than some previous estimates of its spatial distribution. Moreover, our projections indicate that under future climate scenarios, the species will shift to higher elevations with a large proportion of suitable areas located outside forests, posing challenges for adaptation. Our results suggest that the species may be under greater threat than previously thought; hence, urgent conservation actions are required. We recommend reinforcing the protection of areas predicted to remain suitable under future climate scenarios and the development of a species conservation action plan.}, }
@article {pmid38622331, year = {2024}, author = {Jia, H and Fei, X and Zhu, J and Chen, W and Chen, R and Liao, Z and Zhou, B and Huang, Y and Du, H and Xu, P and Zhang, X and Li, W}, title = {Soil respiration and its response to climate change and anthropogenic factors in a karst plateau wetland, southwest China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {8653}, pmid = {38622331}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {No. Bikelianhezi Guigongcheng [2021]07//the Opening Fund for Guizhou Province Key Laboratory of Ecological Protection and Restoration of Typical Plateau Wetlands/ ; 32160290//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; Qian Kehe Foundation [2020]1Y073//the Science and Technology Research Project of Guizhou Province, China/ ; QKZYD [2022]4022//the Guizhou Provincial Science and Technology Development Project/ ; Qian Kehe Support [2022] General 209//the Science and Technology Planned Project in Guizhou Province/ ; [2019]69//the Cultivation Project of Natural Science of Guizhou University, China/ ; [2018] 29//the Special Research Fund of Natural Science (Special Post) of Guizhou University, China/ ; DCRE-2023-10//Guizhou Provincial Double Carbon and Renewable Energy Technology Innovation Research Institute/ ; }, abstract = {It is important to investigate the responses of greenhouse gases to climate change (temperature, precipitation) and anthropogenic factors in plateau wetland. Based on the DNDC model, we used meteorological, soil, and land cover data to simulate the soil CO2 emission pattern and its responses to climate change and anthropogenic factors in Guizhou, China. The results showed that the mean soil CO2 emission flux in the Caohai Karst Plateau Wetland was 5.89 ± 0.17 t·C·ha[-1]·yr[-1] from 2000 to 2019, and the annual variation showed an increasing trend with the rate of 23.02 kg·C·ha[-1]·yr[-1]. The soil total annual mean CO2 emissions were 70.62 ± 2.04 Gg·C·yr[-1] (annual growth rate was 0.28 Gg·C·yr[-1]). Caohai wetland has great spatial heterogeneity. The emissions around Caohai Lake were high (the areas with high, middle, and low values accounted for 3.07%, 70.96%, and 25.97%, respectively), and the emission pattern was characterized by a decrease in radiation from Caohai Lake to the periphery. In addition, the cropland and forest areas exhibited high intensities (7.21 ± 0.15 t·C·ha[-1]·yr[-1] and 6.73 ± 0.58 t·C·ha[-1]·yr[-1], respectively) and high total emissions (54.97 ± 1.16 Gg·C·yr[-1] and 10.24 ± 0.88 Gg·C·yr[-1], respectively). Croplands and forests were the major land cover types controlling soil CO2 emissions in the Caohai wetland, while anthropogenic factors (cultivation) significantly increased soil CO2 emissions. Results showed that the soil CO2 emissions were positively correlated with temperature and precipitation; and the temperature change had a greater impact on soil respiration than the change in precipitation. Our results indicated that future climate change (increased temperature and precipitation) may promote an increase in soil CO2 emissions in karst plateau wetlands, and reasonable control measures (e.g. returning cropland to lakes and reducing anthropogenic factors) are the keys to controlling CO2 emissions.}, }
@article {pmid38622195, year = {2024}, author = {Somboon, S and Rossopa, B and Yodda, S and Sukitprapanon, TS and Chidthaisong, A and Lawongsa, P}, title = {Mitigating methane emissions and global warming potential while increasing rice yield using biochar derived from leftover rice straw in a tropical paddy soil.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {8706}, pmid = {38622195}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {179426//National Science, Research and Innovation Fund/ ; 641T217//Graduate School, Khon Kaen University/ ; }, abstract = {The sustainable management of leftover rice straw through biochar production to mitigate CH4 emissions and enhance rice yield remains uncertain and undefined. Therefore, we evaluated the effects of using biochar derived from rice straw left on fields after harvest on greenhouse gas emissions, global warming potential (GWP), and rice yield in the paddy field. The experiment included three treatments: chemical fertilizer (CF), rice straw (RS, 10 t ha[-1]) + CF, and rice straw-derived biochar (BC, 3 t ha[-1] based on the amount of product remaining after pyrolysis) + CF. Compared with CF, BC + CF significantly reduced cumulative CH4 and CO2 emissions, net GWP, and greenhouse gas emission intensity by 42.9%, 37.4%, 39.5%, and 67.8%, respectively. In contrast, RS + CF significantly increased cumulative CH4 emissions and net GWP by 119.3% and 13.8%, respectively. The reduced CH4 emissions were mainly caused by the addition of BC + CF, which did not increase the levels of dissolved organic carbon and microbial biomass carbon, consequently resulting in reduced archaeal abundance, unlike those observed in RS + CF. The BC + CF also enhanced soil total organic carbon content and rice grain yield. This study indicated that using biochar derived from leftover rice straw mitigates greenhouse gas emissions and improves rice productivity in tropical paddy soil.}, }
@article {pmid38619798, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Correction to "Genomic architecture controls multivariate adaptation to climate change".}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {e17270}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17270}, pmid = {38619798}, issn = {1365-2486}, }
@article {pmid38625362, year = {2023}, author = {Chacowry, A}, title = {Meeting the challenges to climate change adaptation: an NGO community-based successful projects in Mauritius.}, journal = {GeoJournal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, doi = {10.1007/s10708-023-10850-5}, pmid = {38625362}, issn = {1572-9893}, abstract = {Climate change and anthropogenic pressure are among the main drivers of coastal environment degradation in Mauritius, a small island developing state. Globally, mitigation and adaptation strategies applied to the complex socio-ecological coastal systems offer effective solutions in curbing the adverse impacts. In environmental protection, Non-Governmental Organisations' (NGOs) role was first recognised in the 1992 UN Agenda 21 for Sustainable Development, and they are now integrated with most coastal environmental rehabilitation programmes. This paper describes two climate-based adaptation projects undertaken about a decade ago by an NGO in Mauritius. The projects were community-driven in all phases of implementation. The first project focussed on the Ecosystem-based-adaptation (EbA) approach of restoring a mangrove ecosystem and improving community life at Le Morne Village. The second project aimed at the rehabilitation of a historical site and the consolidation of a degraded coastline at Poudre d'Or Village. Components of 'hard' and 'soft' adaptive measures were applied as pathways to guide project implementation. The projects required extensive field visits, focus group interviews, and participatory inputs from all stakeholders. A 10-year assessment of the processes applied in the conceptualisation, implementation, and in evaluating the outcomes was gleaned from regular visits to local inhabitants, stakeholders, and NGO members since the completion of the projects. In 2022, an informal interview at Le Morne and a survey at Poudre d'Or showed that both projects resulted in positive outcomes. Good governance capacity and rigour in the management of the project team were highlighted as crucial attributes to the success of the projects.}, }
@article {pmid38624658, year = {2021}, author = {Yarzábal, LA and Salazar, LMB and Batista-García, RA}, title = {Climate change, melting cryosphere and frozen pathogens: Should we worry…?.}, journal = {Environmental sustainability (Singapore)}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {489-501}, doi = {10.1007/s42398-021-00184-8}, pmid = {38624658}, issn = {2523-8922}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Permanently frozen environments (glaciers, permafrost) are considered as natural reservoirs of huge amounts of microorganisms, mostly dormant, including human pathogens. Due to global warming, which increases the rate of ice-melting, approximately 4 × 10[21] of these microorganisms are released annually from their frozen confinement and enter natural ecosystems, in close proximity to human settlements. Some years ago, the hypothesis was put forward that this massive release of potentially-pathogenic microbes-many of which disappeared from the face of the Earth thousands and even millions of years ago-could give rise to epidemics. The recent anthrax outbreaks that occurred in Siberia, and the presence of bacterial and viral pathogens in glaciers worldwide, seem to confirm this hypothesis. In that context, the present review summarizes the currently available scientific evidence that allows us to imagine a near future in which epidemic outbreaks, similar to the abovementioned, could occur as a consequence of the resurrection and release of microbes from glaciers and permafrost.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version of this article (10.1007/s42398-021-00184-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.}, }
@article {pmid38620337, year = {2020}, author = {Jiricka-Pürrer, A and Brandenburg, C and Pröbstl-Haider, U}, title = {City tourism pre- and post-covid-19 pandemic - Messages to take home for climate change adaptation and mitigation?.}, journal = {Journal of outdoor recreation and tourism}, volume = {31}, number = {}, pages = {100329}, doi = {10.1016/j.jort.2020.100329}, pmid = {38620337}, issn = {2213-0799}, abstract = {The paper presents the status quo on climate change impacts on city tourism in Austria describing the impacts by air travel and a short stay on the greenhouse gas emissions and the changing conditions in the city. For Austrian cities, depending on location and topography, heavy rainfall events, storms and heat waves in particular could become increasingly relevant in the tourism context. For medium-sized and large cities, heat is the most frequently discussed topic in connection with possible adaptation potentials. The analysis of challenges shows a strong overlap of adaptation targets in city tourism with adaptation challenges for city planning including connection to the sub-urban surrounding areas to confront climate change impacts. Covid-19 pandemic, additionally, offered the opportunity to discuss a new re-start of the city-tourism against the experience during the shutdown period in spring 2020. The paper argues that we can learn from the current health crisis for coping with climate change related extreme events and to increase achievements in climate change mitigation. Firstly, the pandemic provides a strong ability to discuss the impact of city tourism due to short-term air travel and options to enhance more climate-friendly options on the other hand. Secondly, Covid-19 emphasized the need to reconsider the role of free spaces in metropolitan areas as well as their accessibility. Herewith synergies with climate change adaptation are likely when questioning the availability and accessibility of green and blue infrastructure as well as their capacities. Challenges including crowding and impacts by over tourism on public free spaces will require joint strategies involving all public and private institutions (including local communities and businesses) responsible for the maintenance of green and blue free spaces. Thirdly, the strong interactions between urban and suburban areas became evident once more, which will also be very relevant for city tourism in the future (e.g. in times of heat waves). Reflection on the transferability of coping with such crowding effects, related to the adaptive behaviour of residents and tourists in times of severe heat waves, might be relevant for both city tourism and summer tourism destinations near metropolitan areas. Finally, the Covid-19 crisis encourages discussions on over-tourism in metropolitan destinations in favour of a more balanced approach, in particular in inner city areas and around major sightseeing attractions.}, }
@article {pmid38619007, year = {2024}, author = {Jansen, MAK and Andrady, AL and Barnes, PW and Busquets, R and Revell, LE and Bornman, JF and Aucamp, PJ and Bais, AF and Banaszak, AT and Bernhard, GH and Bruckman, LS and Häder, DP and Hanson, ML and Heikkilä, AM and Hylander, S and Lucas, RM and Mackenzie, R and Madronich, S and Neale, PJ and Neale, RE and Olsen, CM and Ossola, R and Pandey, KK and Petropavlovskikh, I and Robinson, SA and Robson, TM and Rose, KC and Solomon, KR and Sulbæk Andersen, MP and Sulzberger, B and Wallington, TJ and Wang, QW and Wängberg, S&#xc5; and White, CC and Young, AR and Zepp, RG and Zhu, L}, title = {Environmental plastics in the context of UV radiation, climate change, and the Montreal Protocol.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {e17279}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17279}, pmid = {38619007}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {There are close links between solar UV radiation, climate change, and plastic pollution. UV-driven weathering is a key process leading to the degradation of plastics in the environment but also the formation of potentially harmful plastic fragments such as micro- and nanoplastic particles. Estimates of the environmental persistence of plastic pollution, and the formation of fragments, will need to take in account plastic dispersal around the globe, as well as projected UV radiation levels and climate change factors.}, }
@article {pmid38617202, year = {2024}, author = {Gauzens, B and Rosenbaum, B and Kalinkat, G and Boy, T and Jochum, M and Kortsch, S and O'Gorman, EJ and Brose, U}, title = {Flexible foraging behaviour increases predator vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {387-392}, pmid = {38617202}, issn = {1758-678X}, abstract = {Higher temperatures are expected to reduce species coexistence by increasing energetic demands. However, flexible foraging behaviour could balance this effect by allowing predators to target specific prey species to maximize their energy intake, according to principles of optimal foraging theory. Here we test these assumptions using a large dataset comprising 2,487 stomach contents from six fish species with different feeding strategies, sampled across environments with varying prey availability over 12 years in Kiel Bay (Baltic Sea). Our results show that foraging shifts from trait- to density-dependent prey selectivity in warmer and more productive environments. This behavioural change leads to lower consumption efficiency at higher temperature as fish select more abundant but less energetically rewarding prey, thereby undermining species persistence and biodiversity. By integrating this behaviour into dynamic food web models, our study reveals that flexible foraging leads to lower species coexistence and biodiversity in communities under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid38617104, year = {2024}, author = {Hearn, AX and Huber, F and Koehrsen, J and Buzzi, AL}, title = {The perceived potential of religion in mitigating climate change and how this is being realized in Germany and Switzerland.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {342-357}, pmid = {38617104}, issn = {2190-6483}, abstract = {Scholars of religion have repeatedly debated and contested the role of religion and spirituality in combatting climate change. In recent years, the potential of religion has also become an issue among natural scientists, politicians, environmental organizations, and civil society. Indeed, the potential of religion to mitigate climate change is perceived both internally and externally, and various expectations are placed on religion. This article examines the perceived potential of religion in mitigating climate change and how this is being realized. Based on 38 interviews, conducted with representatives from religious communities and umbrella organizations in Germany and Switzerland, we focus on the areas of values, political influence, and materialization. Our results show that the potential of religion in addressing climate change remains largely unfulfilled despite increasing steps in this direction.}, }
@article {pmid38615772, year = {2024}, author = {Hao, L and Sanada, A and Chi, B and Xiong, B and Maruya, Y and Yano, S}, title = {Long-term developments in seasonal hypoxia and response to climate change: A three-decade modeling study in the Ariake Sea, Japan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172471}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172471}, pmid = {38615772}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Hypoxia in the Ariake Sea, Japan, is steadily increasing in both duration and spatial coverage. Hypoxia, defined as dissolved oxygen (DO) below 3 mg/L, is strongly associated with the amplified frequency of extreme rainfall events driven by climate change, which poses a mounting threat to marine ecosystems on a global scale. In this study, we employed a general three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic coastal model and a phytoplankton-based ecosystem model to identify the potential cause of seasonal hypoxic events over three decades. The results indicated a substantial decrease in bottom DO levels from 1992 to 2021, with the rate of increase in hypoxic area being 8 km[2]/yr (95 % CI: -0.38, 16.2) and the anoxic area increasing from almost non-existent to 100 km[2]. Notably, among various environmental drivers, increased river discharge was identified as a pivotal factor in the occurrence of hypoxia. Large-scale river discharge events can potentially increase water stratification, leading to the formation of hypoxia. River discharge volume and the duration of bottom hypoxia in the Ariake Sea were correlated. The duration of hypoxia was strongly associated with river discharge magnitude, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.56 to 0.82 across six observational stations. Furthermore, analysis of varied simulated environmental factors over multiple years revealed diverse responses to climate change, indicating that the Ariake Sea is prone to experiencing a decline in its physical and water quality conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38615237, year = {2024}, author = {El-Far, A and Yousry, N and Abouelmagd, F and Elsheikh, ME and El Said, M}, title = {Influence of climate change on emerging pathogens and human immunity.}, journal = {The Egyptian journal of immunology}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {71-86}, pmid = {38615237}, issn = {1110-4902}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming can be defined as the detectable increase in average global temperature in the last ten years regarding frequency and intensity. Climate change represents a long-term detectable climatic variability. The climatic system of the earth is disrupted because of the continuous production of greenhouse gases, which raises the risk of the emergence and re-emergence of human pathogens. In this review, we aimed to present the different mechanisms of climate change that increase human/pathogen exposure, introduce the recent concept of disaster microbiology, and discuss the effects of climate change on zoonoses as well as the effects of climate change on antibiotic resistance and human health.}, }
@article {pmid38614007, year = {2024}, author = {Guo, Y and Bai, R and Hong, T}, title = {Transboundary cooperation in Arctic climate change governance under geopolitical tensions.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {358}, number = {}, pages = {120855}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120855}, pmid = {38614007}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Political conflicts or geopolitical tensions can create uncertainty in addressing climate change and environmental management in the Arctic. Dissecting how actors interact with each other and form networks is important for understanding ecological and environmental management challenges during geopolitical tensions, as well as promoting better governance. We construct transboundary networks for Arctic climate change governance (ACCG) from 2013 to 2021 based on the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT). Further, we used network descriptive statistical analysis and Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TERGM) to explore the structure of ACCG networks and the key factors influencing cooperation formation. The findings suggest that the overall cooperation density of the ACCG is low, and the dominant position of core actors is continuously strengthening. Non-state actors are less likely to be seen as partners and their participation depends largely on cooperation with states. The results also show that actors with similar stances and problem exposure are more likely to cooperate, but those exposed to high latitudes often choose not to cooperate; first-comers are more likely to perceive as cooperating yet they are inclined to establish internal cooperation. Additionally, two geographically proximate actors are more likely to cooperate. This indicates that under geopolitical tensions, the ACCG faces challenges not only due to the limited capacity of non-state actors to perform transboundary functions but also because the cooperation mechanisms are influenced by regional political logic. Accordingly, we further suggest policy recommendations from developing binding international frameworks to guide transboundary cooperation, enhancing cooperation among non-state actors, and ensuring the representativeness and fairness of non-Arctic actors' participation. This research provides insights into transboundary environmental management under political tensions, while also offering new pathways for analysing large-scale environmental governance structures.}, }
@article {pmid38613746, year = {2024}, author = {Markkula, I and Turunen, M and Rikkonen, T and Rasmus, S and Koski, V and Welker, JM}, title = {Climate change, cultural continuity and ecological grief: Insights from the Sámi Homeland.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38613746}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {869580//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; }, abstract = {Arctic regions are warming significantly faster than other parts of the globe, leading to changes in snow, ice and weather conditions, ecosystems and local cultures. These changes have brought worry and concern and triggered feelings of loss among Arctic Indigenous Peoples and local communities. Recently, research has started to address emotional and social dimensions of climate change, framed through the concept of ecological grief. In this study, we examine sociocultural impacts of climate change and expressions of ecological grief among members of reindeer herding communities in the Sámi Homeland in Finland. Results indicate that ecological grief is felt in connection to major environmental concerns in the area: changes in winter weather and extreme weather events, Atlantic salmon decline and land use changes, which all have cultural and social consequences. Our results indicate that ecological grief is strongly associated with ecological losses, but also with political decisions regarding natural resource governance.}, }
@article {pmid38613463, year = {2024}, author = {Barton, M and Elhindi, J and Dey, C and Harris, A}, title = {Climate change: A clear and present danger to mental health - Response to Amos (2023) 'Thinking clearly about climate change and mental health'.}, journal = {Australasian psychiatry : bulletin of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {10398562241242946}, doi = {10.1177/10398562241242946}, pmid = {38613463}, issn = {1440-1665}, }
@article {pmid38611556, year = {2024}, author = {Deng, C and Zhong, Q and Shao, D and Ren, Y and Li, Q and Wen, J and Li, J}, title = {Potential Suitable Habitats of Chili Pepper in China under Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {38611556}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2022-ZJ-947Q//Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province/ ; 2022-ZZ-11//Open Project of State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University/ ; }, abstract = {Chili pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) is extensively cultivated in China, with its production highly reliant on regional environmental conditions. Given ongoing climate change, it is imperative to assess its impact on chili pepper cultivation and identify suitable habitats for future cultivation. In this study, the MaxEnt model was optimized and utilized to predict suitable habitats for open-field chili pepper cultivation, and changes in these habitats were analyzed using ArcGIS v10.8. Our results showed that the parameter settings of the optimal model were FC = LQPTH and RM = 2.7, and the critical environmental variables influencing chili pepper distribution were annual mean temperature, isothermality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats were distributed across all provinces in China, with moderately- and highly-suitable habitats concentrated in the east of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and south of the Inner Mongolia Plateau. Under future climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitats was expected to be larger than the current ones, except for SSP126-2050s, and reached the maximum under SSP126-2090s. The overlapping suitable habitats were concentrated in the east of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and south of the Inner Mongolia Plateau under various climate scenarios. In the 2050s, the centroids of suitable habitats were predicted to shift towards the southwest, except for SSP126, whereas this trend was reversed in the 2090s. Our results suggest that climate warming is conductive to the cultivation of chili pepper, and provide scientific guidance for the introduction and cultivation of chili pepper in the face of climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid38611423, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, S and Wang, X and Kinay, P and Dau, Q}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Potato Storage.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/foods13071119}, pmid = {38611423}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {null//the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the New Frontiers in Research Fund, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, and the Government of Prince Edward Island./ ; }, abstract = {In this study, we present a comprehensive literature review of the potential impacts of climate change on potato storage. Potato preservation can help reduce food loss and waste while increasing long-term food security, as potatoes are one of the most important crops worldwide. The review's results suggest climate change can negatively affect potato storage, especially tuber sprouting and diseases in storage chambers. Lower Sielianinov coefficient values (indicating dry and hot conditions) during the vegetative season of potato growing can lead to earlier sprouting. For instance, a decrease of 0.05 in the Sielianinov coefficient during the growing season results in tubers stored at 3 °C sprouting 25 days earlier and tubers stored at 5 °C experiencing a 15-day reduction in dormancy. This is due to the fact that the dry and hot climate conditions during the vegetation period of potato planting tend to shorten potato tubers' natural dormancy, which further leads to earlier sprouting during storage. Furthermore, high Sielianinov coefficient values may lead to worse disease situations. The results also suggest that research about the impacts of climate change on potato storage is very limited at the current stage, and further studies are needed to address the key knowledge gaps identified in this study.}, }
@article {pmid38611348, year = {2024}, author = {Čanak, I and Kostelac, D and Jakopović, &#x17d; and Markov, K and Frece, J}, title = {Lactic Acid Bacteria of Marine Origin as a Tool for Successful Shellfish Farming and Adaptation to Climate Change Conditions.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/foods13071042}, pmid = {38611348}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {KK.05.1.1.02.0012//European Regional Development Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change, especially in the form of temperature increase and sea acidification, poses a serious challenge to the sustainability of aquaculture and shellfish farming. In this context, lactic acid bacteria (LAB) of marine origin have attracted attention due to their ability to improve water quality, stimulate the growth and immunity of organisms, and reduce the impact of stress caused by environmental changes. Through a review of relevant research, this paper summarizes previous knowledge on this group of bacteria, their application as protective probiotic cultures in mollusks, and also highlights their potential in reducing the negative impacts of climate change during shellfish farming. Furthermore, opportunities for further research and implementation of LAB as a sustainable and effective solution for adapting mariculture to changing climate conditions were identified.}, }
@article {pmid38609850, year = {2024}, author = {Sun, PW and Chang, JT and Luo, MX and Liao, PC}, title = {Genomic insights into local adaptation and vulnerability of Quercus longinux to climate change.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {279}, pmid = {38609850}, issn = {1471-2229}, support = {NSTC 112-2621-B-003-001-MY3//National Science and Technology Council/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to alter the factors that drive changes in adaptive variation. This is especially true for species with long life spans and limited dispersal capabilities. Rapid climate changes may disrupt the migration of beneficial genetic variations, making it challenging for them to keep up with changing environments. Understanding adaptive genetic variations in tree species is crucial for conservation and effective forest management. Our study used landscape genomic analyses and phenotypic traits from a thorough sampling across the entire range of Quercus longinux, an oak species native to Taiwan, to investigate the signals of adaptation within this species.<br><br>RESULTS: Using ecological data, phenotypic traits, and 1,933 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 205 individuals, we classified three genetic groups, which were also phenotypically and ecologically divergent. Thirty-five genes related to drought and freeze resistance displayed signatures of natural selection. The adaptive variation was driven by diverse environmental pressures such as low spring precipitation, low annual temperature, and soil grid sizes. Using linear-regression-based methods, we identified isolation by environment (IBE) as the optimal model for adaptive SNPs. Redundancy analysis (RDA) further revealed a substantial joint influence of demography, geology, and environments, suggesting a covariation between environmental gradients and colonization history. Lastly, we utilized adaptive signals to estimate the genetic offset for each individual under diverse climate change scenarios. The required genetic changes and migration distance are larger in severe climates. Our prediction also reveals potential threats to edge populations in northern and southeastern Taiwan due to escalating temperatures and precipitation reallocation.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the intricate influence of ecological heterogeneity on genetic and phenotypic adaptation of an oak species. The adaptation is also driven by some rarely studied environmental factors, including wind speed and soil features. Furthermore, the genetic offset analysis predicted that the edge populations of Q. longinux in lower elevations might face higher risks of local extinctions under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38609540, year = {2024}, author = {Xue, S and Massazza, A and Akhter-Khan, SC and Wray, B and Husain, MI and Lawrance, EL}, title = {Mental health and psychosocial interventions in the context of climate change: a scoping review.}, journal = {Npj mental health research}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {10}, pmid = {38609540}, issn = {2731-4251}, abstract = {The evidence on the impacts of climate change on mental health and wellbeing is growing rapidly. The objective of this scoping review is to understand the extent and type of existing mental health and psychosocial interventions aimed at addressing the mental health and psychosocial impacts of climate change. A scoping review methodology was followed. MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Web of Science databases were searched from inception to May 2022. Comprehensive gray literature search, including expert consultation, was conducted to identify interventions for which peer-reviewed academic literature may not yet be available. Data on intervention type, setting, climate stressor, mental health outcome, evaluation, and any other available details were extracted, and results were summarized narratively. Academic literature search identified 16 records and gray literature search identified a further 24 records. Altogether, 37 unique interventions or packages of interventions were identified. The interventions act at the levels of microsystem, mesosystem, exosystem, and macrosystem through diverse mechanisms. While most interventions have not been formally evaluated, promising preliminary results support interventions in low- and middle-income-country settings disproportionately affected by climate disasters. Interventions from multidisciplinary fields are emerging to reduce psychological distress and enhance mental health and wellbeing in the context of climate change. This scoping review details existing evidence on the interventions and summarizes intervention gaps and lessons learned to inform continued intervention development and scale-up interventions.}, }
@article {pmid38609066, year = {2024}, author = {Abdullah, MA and Chuah, LF and Zakariya, R and Syed, A and Hasan, RC and Mahmud, SM and Elgorban, AM and Bokhari, A and Akhtar, MS and Al-Shwaiman, HA}, title = {Evaluating climate change impacts on reef environments via multibeam echo sounder and acoustic Doppler current profiler technology.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118858}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118858}, pmid = {38609066}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Crucial to the Earth's oceans, ocean currents dynamically react to various factors, including rotation, wind patterns, temperature fluctuations, alterations in salinity and the gravitational pull of the moon. Climate change impacts coastal ecosystems, emphasizing the need for understanding these currents. This study explores multibeam echo sounder (MBES), specifically R2-Sonic 2020, offering detailed seabed information. Investigating coral reefs, rocky reefs and artificial reefs aimed to map seafloor currents movement and their climate change responses. MBES data study explores multibeam echo sounder (MBES), specifically R2-Sonic 2020, offering detailed seabed information. Investigating coral reefs, rocky reefs and artificial reefs aimed to map seafloor currents movement and their climate change responses. MBES data viz. Bathymetry and backscatter were classified and acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP) ground data were validated using random forest regression. Results indicated high precision in currents speed measurement i.e. coral reefs with 0.96, artificial reefs with 0.94 and rocky reefs with 0.97. Currents direction accuracy was notable in coral reefs with 0.85, slightly lower in rocky reefs with 0.72 and artificial reefs with 0.60. Random forest identified sediment and backscatter as key for speed prediction while direction relies on bathymetry, slope and aspect. The study emphasizes integrating sediment size, backscatter, bathymetry and ADCP data for seafloor current analysis. This multibeam data on sediments and currents support better marine spatial planning and determine biodiversity patterns planning in the reef area.}, }
@article {pmid38607559, year = {2024}, author = {Pauline, NM and Lema, GA}, title = {Consideration of Climate Change on Environmental Impact Assessment in Tanzania: Challenges and Prospects.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38607559}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {The potential of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process to respond to climate change impacts of development projects can only be realized with the support of policies, regulations, and actors' engagement. While considering climate change in EIA has become partly mandatory through the EU revised Directive in Europe, African countries are still lagging. This paper assesses Tanzanian policies, laws, regulations, and EIA reports to uncover consideration of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation measures, drawing from the transformational role of EIA. The methodology integrates content analysis, interpretive policy analysis, and discourse analysis. The analyses draw from environmental policy, three regulatory documents and three EIA reports in Tanzania using a multi-cases study design. The aim was to understand how considering Climate Change issues in EIA has played out in practice. Results reveal less consideration of climate change issues in EIA. The policy, laws, and regulations do not guide when and how the EIA process should consider climate change-related impacts mitigation and adaptation. The practice of EIA in the country is utterly procedural in line with regulations provisions. Consequently, environmental impact statements only profile the climatology of the study area without conducting a deeper analysis of the historical and future climate to enhance the resilience of proposed projects. The weakness exposed in the laws and regulations contributes to the challenges of responding to the impacts of climate change through the EIA process. It is possible to address climate change issues throughout the project life cycle, including design, approval, implementation, monitoring, and auditing, provided the policy and regulations guide how and when the EIA process should consider climate change issues. Additionally, increasing stakeholders' awareness and participation can enhance the EIA process's potential to respond to the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38605338, year = {2024}, author = {Hosseini, N and Ghorbanpour, M and Mostafavi, H}, title = {The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {269}, pmid = {38605338}, issn = {1471-2229}, abstract = {Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future species distribution, have been extensively developed to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability. In the West Asia essential oils of T. daenensis and T. kotschyanus include high amounts of thymol and carvacrol and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents and medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The findings revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) was the most significant variable affecting the distribution of T. daenensis. In the case of T. kotschyanus, slope percentage was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based on the projections, the two mentioned species are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable achievement for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38605161, year = {2024}, author = {Bisanti, L and La Corte, C and Dara, M and Bertini, F and Parisi, MG and Chemello, R and Cammarata, M and Parrinello, D}, title = {Global warming-related response after bacterial challenge in Astroides calycularis, a Mediterranean thermophilic coral.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {8495}, pmid = {38605161}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A worldwide increase in the prevalence of coral diseases and mortality has been linked to ocean warming due to changes in coral-associated bacterial communities, pathogen virulence, and immune system function. In the Mediterranean basin, the worrying upward temperature trend has already caused recurrent mass mortality events in recent decades. To evaluate how elevated seawater temperatures affect the immune response of a thermophilic coral species, colonies of Astroides calycularis were exposed to environmental (23 °C) or elevated (28 °C) temperatures, and subsequently challenged with bacterial lipopolysaccharides (LPS). Using immunolabeling with specific antibodies, we detected the production of Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) and nuclear factor kappa B (NF-kB), molecules involved in coral immune responses, and heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) activity, involved in general responses to thermal stress. A histological approach allowed us to characterize the tissue sites of activation (epithelium and/or gastroderm) under different experimental conditions. The activity patterns of the examined markers after 6 h of LPS stimulation revealed an up-modulation at environmental temperature. Under warmer conditions plus LPS-challenge, TLR4-NF-kB activation was almost completely suppressed, while constituent elevated values were recorded under thermal stress only. An HSP70 up-regulation appeared in both treatments at elevated temperature, with a significantly higher activation in LPS-challenge colonies. Such an approach is useful for further understanding the molecular pathogen-defense mechanisms in corals in order to disentangle the complex interactive effects on the health of these ecologically relevant organisms related to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38604367, year = {2024}, author = {Afifa,  and Arshad, K and Hussain, N and Ashraf, MH and Saleem, MZ}, title = {Air pollution and climate change as grand challenges to sustainability.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172370}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172370}, pmid = {38604367}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {There is a cross-disciplinary link between air pollution, climate crisis, and sustainable lifestyle as they are the most complex struggles of the present century. This review takes an in-depth look at this relationship, considering carbon dioxide emissions primarily from the burning of fossil fuels as the main contributor to global warming and focusing on primary SLCPs such as methane and ground-level ozone. Such pollutants severely alter the climate through the generation of greenhouse gases. The discussion is extensive and includes best practices from conventional pollution control technologies to hi-tech alternatives, including electric vehicles, the use of renewables, and green decentralized solutions. It also addresses policy matters, such as imposing stricter emissions standards, setting stronger environmental regulations, and rethinking some economic measures. Besides that, new developments such as congestion charges, air ionization, solar-assisted cleaning systems, and photocatalytic materials are among the products discussed. These strategies differ in relation to the local conditions and therefore exhibit a varying effectiveness level, but they remain evident as a tool of pollution deterrence. This stresses the importance of holistic and inclusive approach in terms of engineering, policies, stakeholders, and ecological spheres to tackle.}, }
@article {pmid38603492, year = {2024}, author = {Voosen, P}, title = {Clearer skies may be accelerating global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {384}, number = {6692}, pages = {147-148}, doi = {10.1126/science.adp7469}, pmid = {38603492}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Study suggests declining pollution is one cause of worldwide rise in absorbed solar energy.}, }
@article {pmid38600619, year = {2024}, author = {Adamczyk, B}, title = {Tannins and Climate Change: Are Tannins Able To Stabilize Carbon in the Soil?.}, journal = {Journal of agricultural and food chemistry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.jafc.4c00703}, pmid = {38600619}, issn = {1520-5118}, abstract = {The interaction between tannins and proteins has been studied intensively for more than half a century as a result of its significance for various applications. In chemical ecology, tannins are involved in response to environmental stress, including biotic (pathogens and herbivores) and abiotic (e.g., drought) stress, and in carbon (C) and nutrient cycling. This perspective summarizes the newest insights into the role of tannins in soil processes, including the interaction with fungi leading to C stabilization. Recent knowledge presented here may help to optimize land management to increase or preserve soil C to mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38600271, year = {2024}, author = {Chowdhury, M and Martínez-Sansigre, A and Mole, M and Alonso-Peleato, E and Basos, N and Blanco, JM and Ramirez-Nicolas, M and Caballero, I and de la Calle, I}, title = {AI-driven remote sensing enhances Mediterranean seagrass monitoring and conservation to combat climate change and anthropogenic impacts.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {8360}, pmid = {38600271}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {DIN2020-010979/AEI/10.13039/501100011033//Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; QSR-ESABIC-2018-001//European Space Agency Business Incubation Centre/ ; }, abstract = {Seagrasses are undergoing widespread loss due to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Since 1960, the Mediterranean seascape lost 13-50% of the areal extent of its dominant and endemic seagrass-Posidonia oceanica, which regulates its ecosystem. Many conservation and restoration projects failed due to poor site selection and lack of long-term monitoring. Here, we present a fast and efficient operational approach based on a deep-learning artificial intelligence model using Sentinel-2 data to map the spatial extent of the meadows, enabling short and long-term monitoring, and identifying the impacts of natural and human-induced stressors and changes at different timescales. We apply ACOLITE atmospheric correction to the satellite data and use the output to train the model along with the ancillary data and therefore, map the extent of the meadows. We apply noise-removing filters to enhance the map quality. We obtain 74-92% of overall accuracy, 72-91% of user's accuracy, and 81-92% of producer's accuracy, where high accuracies are observed at 0-25 m depth. Our model is easily adaptable to other regions and can produce maps in in-situ data-scarce regions, providing a first-hand overview. Our approach can be a support to the Mediterranean Posidonia Network, which brings together different stakeholders such as authorities, scientists, international environmental organizations, professionals including yachting agents and marinas from the Mediterranean countries to protect all P. oceanica meadows in the Mediterranean Sea by 2030 and increase each country's capability to protect these meadows by providing accurate and up-to-date maps to prevent its future degradation.}, }
@article {pmid38600270, year = {2024}, author = {Pearson, H}, title = {The rise of eco-anxiety: scientists wake up to the mental-health toll of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {628}, number = {8007}, pages = {256-258}, pmid = {38600270}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38600269, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {What happens when climate change and the mental-health crisis collide?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {628}, number = {8007}, pages = {235}, pmid = {38600269}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38599397, year = {2024}, author = {Onyekwelu, I and Sharda, V}, title = {Root proliferation adaptation strategy improved maize productivity in the US Great Plains: Insights from crop simulation model under future climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172205}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172205}, pmid = {38599397}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Adaptation measures are essential for reducing the impact of future climate risks on agricultural production systems. The present study focuses on implementing an adaptation strategy to mitigate the impact of future climate change on rainfed maize production in the Eastern Kansas River Basin (EKSRB), an important rainfed maize-producing region in the US Great Plains, which faces potential challenges of future climate risks due to a significant east-to-west aridity gradient. We used a calibrated CERES-Maize crop model to evaluate the impacts of baseline climate conditions (1985-2014), late-term future climate scenarios (under the SSP245 emission pathway and CMIP6 models), and a novel root proliferation adaptation strategy on regional maize yield and rainfall productivity. Changes in the plant root system by increasing the root density could lead to yield benefits, especially under drought conditions. Therefore, we modified the governing equation of soil root growth in the CERES-Maize model to reflect the genetic influence of a maize cultivar to improve root density by proliferation. Under baseline conditions, maize yield values ranged from 6522 to 12,849 kgha[-1], with a regional average value of 9270 kgha[-1]. Projections for the late-term scenario indicate a substantial decline in maize yield (36 % to 50 %) and rainfall productivity (25 % to 42 %). Introducing a hypothetical maize cultivar by employing root proliferation as an adaptation strategy resulted in a 27 % increase in regional maize yield, and a 28 % increase in rainfall productivity compared to the reference cultivar without adaptation. We observed an indication of spatial dependency of maize yield and rainfall productivity on the regional precipitation gradient, with counties towards the east having an implicit advantage over those in the west. These findings offer valuable insights for the US Great Plains maize growers and breeders, guiding strategic decisions to adapt rainfed maize production to the region's impending challenges posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38598437, year = {2024}, author = {Tucholska, K and Gulla, B and Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, A}, title = {Climate change beliefs, emotions and pro-environmental behaviors among adults: The role of core personality traits and the time perspective.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {4}, pages = {e0300246}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0300246}, pmid = {38598437}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change and its consequences are recognized as one of the most important challenges to the functioning of the Earth's ecosystem and humanity. However, the response to the threat posed by the climate crisis still seems inadequate. The question of which psychological factors cause people to engage (or not) in pro-environmental behavior remains without a comprehensive answer. The aim of this study is to establish the links between the cognitive (level of knowledge about climate change and degree of belief in climate myths), emotional (various climate emotions, especially climate anxiety) and behavioral aspects of attitudes towards the climate crisis and their determinants in the form of the Big Five personality domains and time perspectives. The stated hypotheses were verified by analyzing data collected in an online survey of 333 adults using knowledge tests and self-report methods, including psychological questionnaires (Climate Change Anxiety Scale by Clayton and Karazsia, Big Five Inventory-short version by Schupp and Gerlitz, and Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory by Zimbardo and Boyd), and measurement scales developed for this study (Climate myth belief scale, Climate emotion scale, and Inventories of current and planned pro-environmental activities). The results of stepwise regression analysis demonstrate the importance of the core personality traits and the dominant temporal perspective as determinants of belief in climate change myths, climate anxiety, as well as actual and planned pro-environmental behavior.}, }
@article {pmid38598325, year = {2024}, author = {Lee, BR and Schaffer-Morrison, S}, title = {Forests of the future: The importance of tree seedling research in understanding forest response to anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpae039}, pmid = {38598325}, issn = {1758-4469}, }
@article {pmid38597771, year = {2024}, author = {Escudero, V and Fuenzalida, M and Rezende, EL and González-Guerrero, M and Roschzttardtz, H}, title = {Perspectives on embryo maturation and seed quality in a global climate change scenario.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erae154}, pmid = {38597771}, issn = {1460-2431}, abstract = {Global climate change has already brought noticeable alterations to multiple regions of our planet. Several important steps of plant growth and development, such as embryogenesis, can be affected by environmental changes. For instance, these changes would affect how stored nutrients are used during early stages of seed germination as it transitions from a heterotrophic to autotrophic metabolism, a critical period for the seedling's survival. In this perspective, we provide a brief description of relevant processes that occur during embryo maturation and account for nutrient accumulation, which are sensitive to environmental change. As examples of the effects associated with climate change are increased CO2 levels and changes in temperature. During seed development, most of the nutrients stored in the seed are accumulated during the seed maturation stage. These nutrients include, depending on the plant species, carbohydrates, lipids and proteins. Regarding micronutrients, it has also been established that iron, a key micronutrient for various electron transfer processes in plant cells, accumulates during embryo maturation. Several articles have been published indicating that climate change can affect the quality of the seed, in terms of total nutritional content, but also, it may affect seed production. Here we discuss the potential effects of temperature and CO2 increase from an embryo autonomous point of view, in an attempt to separate the maternal effects from embryonic effects.}, }
@article {pmid38597525, year = {2024}, author = {Cella, W and Silva Junior, RCAD and Pimenta, PFP and Monteiro, WM}, title = {Morphometry of the wings of Anopheles aquasalis in simulated scenarios of climate change.}, journal = {Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical}, volume = {57}, number = {}, pages = {e00704}, doi = {10.1590/0037-8682-0454-2023}, pmid = {38597525}, issn = {1678-9849}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has significant implications on ecosystems. We verified the effects of climate change on the malaria vector Anopheles aquasalis using simulated climate change scenarios (SSCCs).<br><br>METHODS: An experimental model was designed for SSCCs, which composed of air-conditioned 25 m3 rooms.<br><br>RESULTS: The wing size was significantly different between SSCCs. A colony of Anopheles aquasalis could not be established in extreme scenarios.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Increases in temperature and CO2 in the atmosphere may modify the global epidemiology of malaria, marking its emergence in currently malaria-free areas.}, }
@article {pmid38596799, year = {2024}, author = {Leddin, D and Singh, H and Armstrong, D and Cheyne, K and Galts, C and Igoe, J and Leontiadis, G and McGrath, J and Pray, C and Sadowski, D and Shahidi, N and Sinclair, P and Tse, F and Yanofsky, R}, title = {The Canadian Association of Gastroenterology's New Climate Change Committee.}, journal = {Journal of the Canadian Association of Gastroenterology}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {135-136}, pmid = {38596799}, issn = {2515-2092}, }
@article {pmid38596378, year = {2024}, author = {Li, S and Nilsson, E and Seidel, L and Ketzer, M and Forsman, A and Dopson, M and Hylander, S}, title = {Baltic Sea coastal sediment-bound eukaryotes have increased year-round activities under predicted climate change related warming.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1369102}, pmid = {38596378}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Climate change related warming is a serious environmental problem attributed to anthropogenic activities, causing ocean water temperatures to rise in the coastal marine ecosystem since the last century. This particularly affects benthic microbial communities, which are crucial for biogeochemical cycles. While bacterial communities have received considerable scientific attention, the benthic eukaryotic community response to climate change remains relatively overlooked. In this study, sediments were sampled from a heated (average 5°C increase over the whole year for over 50 years) and a control (contemporary conditions) Baltic Sea bay during four different seasons across a year. RNA transcript counts were then used to investigate eukaryotic community changes under long-term warming. The composition of active species in the heated and control bay sediment eukaryotic communities differed, which was mainly attributed to salinity and temperature. The family level RNA transcript alpha diversity in the heated bay was higher during May but lower in November, compared with the control bay, suggesting altered seasonal activity patterns and dynamics. In addition, structures of the active eukaryotic communities varied between the two bays during the same season. Hence, this study revealed that long-term warming can change seasonality in eukaryotic diversity patterns. Relative abundances and transcript expression comparisons between bays suggested that some taxa that now have lower mRNA transcripts numbers could be favored by future warming. Furthermore, long-term warming can lead to a more active metabolism in these communities throughout the year, such as higher transcript numbers associated with diatom energy production and protein synthesis in the heated bay during winter. In all, these data can help predict how future global warming will affect the ecology and metabolism of eukaryotic community in coastal sediments.}, }
@article {pmid38596117, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, Y and Wang, Z}, title = {Change of spermatophyte family diversity in distribution patterns with climate change in China.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {e28519}, pmid = {38596117}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The global climate is undergoing extraordinary changes, profoundly influencing a variety of ecological processes. Understanding the distribution patterns and predicting the future of plant diversity is crucial for biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change. However, current studies on predictive geographic patterns of plant diversity often fail to separate the effects of global climate change from other influencing factors. In this study, we developed a spatial simulation model of spermatophyte family diversity (SSMSFD) based on data collected from 200 nature reserves covering approximately 1,500,000 km[2], where direct anthropogenic disturbances to plant diversity and the surrounding environment are absent. We predicted the spermatophyte family diversity for all provinces in China in 2020, 2040, and 2080, considering the impacts of global climate change. On average, China currently exhibits 118 plant families per 25 km[2], with a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. When considering only the effects of global climate change, excluding direct anthropogenic disturbances, our results indicate that under the Shared Socioeconomic Path Scenarios (SSPs) 245 and 585, spermatophyte family diversity is projected to slowly increase in most Chinese provinces from 2021 to 2080. Notably, the increase is more pronounced under SSPs585 compared to SSPs245. Global climate change has a positive effect on plant diversity, in contrast to the negative impact of anthropogenic disturbances that often lead to declines in plant diversity. This research highlights the contrasting outcomes of future plant diversity under the sole influence of global climate change and the significant negative effects of anthropogenic disturbances on diversity.}, }
@article {pmid38596012, year = {2024}, author = {Berhanu, AA and Ayele, ZB and Dagnew, DC and Melese, T and Fenta, AB and Kassie, KE}, title = {Smallholder farmers' vulnerability to climate change and variability: Evidence from three agroecologies in the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {e28277}, pmid = {38596012}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study delves into the profound impact of climate change on agriculture in Ethiopia, particularly the vulnerabilities faced by smallholder farmers and the resulting implications for poverty. Focusing on three distinct agroecologies, namely: highland, midland, and lowland zones. The study employed a robust methodology, combining a cross-sectional survey, spatial-temporal trend analysis using GIS, and the development of an overall vulnerability index through the balanced weighted average method. The study, encompassing 646 households, combines data from a variety of sources and analytical tools like the vulnerability index, ArcGIS 10.8, and ERDA's IMAGINE 2015. Utilizing the LVI-IPCC scale, the study shows that climate change is an immediate vulnerability in all agroecological zones. It identifies highland areas as the most sensitive and exposed regions, while lowland households are found to be the most vulnerable in terms of overall vulnerabilities. The research reveals specific challenges faced by communities, such as inadequate health facilities and insufficient food and water supplies in both highland and lowland agroecosystems. Additionally, our investigation has observed a significant alteration in land use practices, specifically the shift from communal grazing land to private cultivation and plantations, emphasizing eucalyptus. This alteration enhances the ecosystem's vulnerability to climate disturbances. The study suggests targeted interventions, such as advocating for sustainable land-use practices, afforestation, and adopting climate-smart agriculture practices. It is important to implement policy measures that prioritize conserving and restoring shrubland, grazing land, and natural forests to ensure both long-term socio-economic and ecosystem resilience. The study's nuanced insights are instrumental in understanding the diverse challenges posed by climate change in Ethiopian agriculture, supporting informed policymaking and sustainable interventions.}, }
@article {pmid38595907, year = {2024}, author = {Wakatsuki, H and Takimoto, T and Ishigooka, Y and Nishimori, M and Sakata, M and Saida, N and Akagi, K and Makowski, D and Hasegawa, T}, title = {A dataset for analyzing the climate change response of grain quality of 48 Japanese rice cultivars with contrasting levels of heat tolerance.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {54}, number = {}, pages = {110352}, pmid = {38595907}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Climate change has a significant impact on rice grain appearance quality; in particular, high temperatures during the grain filling period increase the rate of chalky immature grains, reducing the marketability of rice. Heat-tolerant cultivars have been bred and released to reduce the rate of chalky grain and improve rice quality under high temperatures, but the ability of these cultivars to actually reduce chalky grain content has never been demonstrated due to the lack of integrated datasets. Here, we present a dataset collected through a systematic literature search from publicly available data sources, for the quantitative analysis of the impact of meteorological factors on grain appearance quality of various rice cultivars with contrasted heat tolerance levels. The dataset contains 1302 field observations of chalky grain rates (%) - a critical trait affecting grain appearance sensitive to temperature shocks - for 48 cultivars covering five different heat-tolerant ranks (HTRs) collected at 44 sites across Japan. The dataset also includes the values of key meteorological variables during the grain filling period, such as the cumulative mean air temperature above the threshold temperature (TaHD), mean solar radiation, and mean relative humidity over 20 days after heading, obtained from a gridded daily meteorological dataset with a 1-km resolution developed by the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization. The dataset covers major commercial rice cultivars cultivated in Japan in different environmental conditions. It is a useful resource for analyzing the climate change impact on crop quality and assess the effectiveness of genetic improvements in heat tolerance. Its value has been illustrated in the research article entitled "Effectiveness of heat tolerance rice cultivars in preserving grain appearance quality under high temperatures - A meta-analysis", where the dataset was used to develop a statistical model quantifying the effects of high temperature on grain quality as a function of cultivar heat tolerance.}, }
@article {pmid38594061, year = {2024}, author = {Cave, JA}, title = {Medicines and global warming: a complex problem.}, journal = {Drug and therapeutics bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/dtb.2024.000003}, pmid = {38594061}, issn = {1755-5248}, }
@article {pmid38593880, year = {2024}, author = {Quan, Q and Yi, F and Liu, H}, title = {Fertilizer response to climate change: Evidence from corn production in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172226}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172226}, pmid = {38593880}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Corn is the third most cultivated food crop in the world, and climate change has important effects on corn production and food security. China is the top user of chemical fertilizer in the world, and analyzing how to effectively manage fertilizer application in such a developing country with resource constraints is crucial. We present empirical evidence from China to demonstrate the nonlinear impact of temperature on fertilizer usage in corn production based on a panel dataset that shows 2297 corn-growing counties during 1998-2016. Our findings indicate that fertilizer usage barely changes with increasing temperatures that are below 28 °C; however, exposure to temperatures above 28 °C leads to a sharp increase in fertilizer use. The increase in temperatures in the sample period implies that fertilizer usage per hectare for corn increased by 1.5 kg. Summer corn fertilizer application in the Yellow-Huai River Valley is more sensitive to warming than in the North region. Moreover, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers have different temperature thresholds of 32 °C, 20 °C, and 20 °C, respectively, that cause significant changes.}, }
@article {pmid38597466, year = {2023}, author = {Miranda, JJ and Zavaleta-Cortijo, C}, title = {The food crisis in the context of climate change and sustainable development goals.}, journal = {Revista peruana de medicina experimental y salud publica}, volume = {40}, number = {4}, pages = {392-394}, doi = {10.17843/rpmesp.2023.404.13553}, pmid = {38597466}, issn = {1726-4642}, }
@article {pmid38593742, year = {2024}, author = {Nuñez, JA and Aguiar, S and Jobbágy, EG and Jiménez, YG and Baldassini, P}, title = {Climate change and land cover effects on water yield in a subtropical watershed spanning the yungas-chaco transition of Argentina.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {358}, number = {}, pages = {120808}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120808}, pmid = {38593742}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The demand for mountain water resources is increasing, and their availability is threatened by climate change, emphasizing the urgency for effective protection and management. The upper Sali-Dulce watershed holds vital significance as it contributes the majority of the Sali-Dulce water resources, supporting a densely populated dry region in Northwestern Argentina, covering an area of 24,217 km[2]. However, the potential impact of climate change and land use/land cover change on water yield in this watershed remains uncertain. This study employs the InVEST Annual Water Yield model to analyze the average water yield in the watershed and evaluate its potential changes under future scenarios of climate and land use/land cover change. InVEST was calibrated using data from multiple river gauges located across the watershed, indicating satisfactory performance (R[2] = 0.751, p-value = 0.0054). Precipitation and evapotranspiration were the most important variables explaining water yield in the area, followed by land use. Water yield showed a notable concentration in the montane area with 40% of the watershed accounting for 80% of the water yield, underscoring the importance of conserving natural land cover in this critical zone. Climate change scenarios project an increase in water yield ranging from 21 to 75%, while the effects of land cover change scenarios on water yield vary, with reforestation scenarios leading to reductions of up to 15% and expansions in non-irrigated agriculture resulting in increases of up to 40%. Additionally, water yield distribution may become more concentrated or dispersed, largely dependent on the type of land cover. The combined scenarios highlight the pivotal role of land cover in adapting to climate change. Our findings provide valuable insights for designing future studies and developing policies aimed at implementing effective adaptation strategies to climate change within the Salí-Dulce watershed.}, }
@article {pmid38592902, year = {2024}, author = {Alanís-Méndez, JL and Soto, V and Limón-Salvador, F}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Prosthechea mariae (Orchidaceae) and within Protected Areas in Mexico.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants13060839}, pmid = {38592902}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on the distribution of native species in the Neotropics remains uncertain for most species. Prosthechea mariae is an endemic epiphytic orchid in Mexico, categorized as threatened. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of climate change on the natural distribution of P. mariae and the capacity of protected areas (PAs) to safeguard optimal environmental conditions for the species in the future. Historical records were obtained from herbaria collections and through field surveys. We utilized climate variables from WorldClim for the baseline scenario and for the 2050 period, using the general circulation models CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 (RCP 4.5). Three sets of climate data were created for the distribution models, and multiple models were evaluated using the kuenm package. We found that the species is restricted to the eastern region of the country. The projections of future scenarios predict not only a substantial reduction in habitat but also an increase in habitat fragmentation. Ten PAs were found within the current distribution area of the species; in the future, the species could lose between 36% and 48% of its available habitat within these PAs. The results allowed for the identification of locations where climate change will have the most severe effects, and proposals for long-term conservation are addressed.}, }
@article {pmid38592822, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, C and Zhang, Y and Sheng, Q and Zhu, Z}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on the Biogeography and Ecological Structure of Zelkova schneideriana Hand.-Mazz. in China.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants13060798}, pmid = {38592822}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {KYCX23_1261//Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province/ ; 21YJCZH131//Ministry of Education Humanities and Social Sciences Research/ ; YESS20220054//Young elite scientist sponsorship program by cast in China Association for Science and Technology/ ; 21GLC002//Social Science Foundation Project of Jiangsu Province/ ; 32101582//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; BK20210613//Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China/ ; 21KJB220008//The Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China/ ; 32071832//The National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; None//"Qing Lan Project" in Jiangsu Province of China/ ; }, abstract = {This study utilized the platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, biomod2, to predict and quantitatively analyze the distribution changes of Zelkova schneideriana Hand.-Mazz. under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) based on climate and land-use data. This study evaluated the geographic range changes in future distribution areas and the results indicated that, under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the distribution area of Zelkova schneideriana would be reduced, showing a trend towards migration to higher latitudes and elevations. Particularly, in the more extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario, the contraction of the distribution area was more pronounced, accompanied by more significant migration characteristics. Furthermore, the ecological structure within the distribution area of Zelkova schneideriana also experienced significant changes, with an increasing degree of fragmentation. The variables of Bio6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), Bio2 (mean diurnal temperature range), Bio15 (precipitation seasonality), and elevation exhibited important influences on the distribution of Zelkova schneideriana, with temperature being particularly significant. Changes in land use, especially the conversion of cropland, had a significant impact on the species' habitat. These research findings highlight the distributional pressures faced by Zelkova schneideriana in the future, emphasizing the crucial need for targeted conservation measures to protect this species and similar organisms.}, }
@article {pmid38592634, year = {2024}, author = {Vaissi, S and Chahardoli, A and Haghighi, ZMS and Heshmatzad, P}, title = {Metal nanoparticle-induced effects on green toads (Amphibia, Anura) under climate change: conservation implications.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38592634}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The toxicity of aluminum oxide (Al2O3), copper oxide (CuO), iron oxide (Fe3O4), nickel oxide (NiO), zinc oxide (ZnO), and titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanoparticles (NPs) on amphibians and their interaction with high temperatures, remain unknown. In this study, we investigated the survival, developmental, behavioral, and histological reactions of Bufotes viridis embryos and larvae exposed to different NPs for a duration of 10 days, using lethal concentrations (LC25%, LC50%, and LC75% mg/L) under both ambient (AT: 18 °C) and high (HT: 21 °C) temperatures. Based on LC, NiONPs > ZnONPs > CuONPs > Al2O3NPs > TiO2NPs > Fe3O4NPs showed the highest mortality at AT. A similar pattern was observed at HT, although mortality occurred at lower concentrations and Fe3O4NPs were more toxic than TiO2NPs. The results indicated that increasing concentrations of NPs significantly reduced hatching rates, except for TiO2NPs. Survival rates decreased, abnormality rates increased, and developmental processes slowed down, particularly for NiONPs and ZnONPs, under HT conditions. However, exposure to low concentrations of Fe3O4NPs for up to 7 days, CuONPs for up to 72 h, and NiO, ZnONPs, and TiO2NPs for up to 96 h did not have a negative impact on survival compared with the control group under AT. In behavioral tests with larvae, NPs generally induced hypoactivity at AT and hyperactivity at HT. Histological findings revealed liver and internal gill tissue lesions, and an increase in the number of melanomacrophage centers at HT. These results suggest that global warming may exacerbate the toxicity of metal oxide NPs to amphibians, emphasizing the need for further research and conservation efforts in this context.}, }
@article {pmid38590812, year = {2024}, author = {Coker, ES and Stone, SL and McTigue, E and Yao, JA and Brigham, EP and Schwandt, M and Henderson, SB}, title = {Climate change and health: rethinking public health messaging for wildfire smoke and extreme heat co-exposures.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {1324662}, pmid = {38590812}, issn = {2296-2565}, abstract = {With the growing climate change crisis, public health agencies and practitioners must increasingly develop guidance documents addressing the public health risks and protective measures associated with multi-hazard events. Our Policy and Practice Review aims to assess current public health guidance and related messaging about co-exposure to wildfire smoke and extreme heat and recommend strengthened messaging to better protect people from these climate-sensitive hazards. We reviewed public health messaging published by governmental agencies between January 2013 and May 2023 in Canada and the United States. Publicly available resources were eligible if they discussed the co-occurrence of wildfire smoke and extreme heat and mentioned personal interventions (protective measures) to prevent exposure to either hazard. We reviewed local, regional, and national governmental agency messaging resources, such as online fact sheets and guidance documents. We assessed these resources according to four public health messaging themes, including (1) discussions around vulnerable groups and risk factors, (2) symptoms associated with these exposures, (3) health risks of each exposure individually, and (4) health risks from combined exposure. Additionally, we conducted a detailed assessment of current messaging about measures to mitigate exposure. We found 15 online public-facing resources that provided health messaging about co-exposure; however, only one discussed all four themes. We identified 21 distinct protective measures mentioned across the 15 resources. There is considerable variability and inconsistency regarding the types and level of detail across described protective measures. Of the identified 21 protective measures, nine may protect against both hazards simultaneously, suggesting opportunities to emphasize these particular messages to address both hazards together. More precise, complete, and coordinated public health messaging would protect against climate-sensitive health outcomes attributable to wildfire smoke and extreme heat co-exposures.}, }
@article {pmid38590162, year = {2024}, author = {Smyth, SJ and Phillips, PWB and Castle, D}, title = {An assessment of the linkages between GM crop biotechnology and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {GM crops &amp; food}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {150-169}, doi = {10.1080/21645698.2024.2335701}, pmid = {38590162}, issn = {2164-5701}, abstract = {This article provides an analysis and evaluation of peer-reviewed evidence on the contribution of crop biotechnology to climate change mitigation and adaption. While there is a range of agricultural technologies and products that contribute to climate change mitigation, this literature landscape analysis focuses on the development of genetically modified traits, their use and adoption in major commodity crops and responsive changes in production techniques. Jointly, these technologies and products are contributing to climate change mitigation, yet the technology, the literature and evidence is still evolving as more sophisticated research methods are used with greater consistency. The literature analysis is undertaken with consideration of the consequential impact that regulatory regimes have on technology development. This assessment utilizes the Maryland Scientific Methods Scale and citation analysis, concluding that GM crops provide benefits that contribute to climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid38589939, year = {2024}, author = {Trost, K and Ertl, V and König, J and Rosner, R and Comtesse, H}, title = {Climate change-related concerns in psychotherapy: therapists' experiences and views on addressing this topic in therapy.}, journal = {BMC psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {192}, pmid = {38589939}, issn = {2050-7283}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: While adverse impacts of climate change on physical health are well-known, research on its effects on mental health is still scarce. Thus, it is unclear whether potential impacts have already reached treatment practice. Our study aimed to quantify psychotherapists' experiences with patients reporting climate change-related concerns and their views on dealing with this topic in psychotherapy.<br><br>METHODS: In a nationwide online survey, responses were collected from 573 psychotherapists from Germany. Therapists reported on the presence of such patients, their socio-demographic characteristics, and climate change-related reactions. Psychotherapists' views on dealing with this topic in psychotherapy were also assessed. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse the responses.<br><br>RESULTS: About 72% (410/573) of psychotherapists indicated having had patients expressing concerns about climate change during treatment. Out of these therapists, 41% (166/410) stated that at least one patient sought treatment deliberately because of such concerns. Patients were mainly young adults with higher education. Most frequent primary diagnoses were depression, adjustment disorder, and generalized anxiety disorder. Psychotherapists having encountered such patients differed from those without such encounters in their views on potential functional impairment and the necessity to target the concerns in treatment. Although 79% (326/415) of all respondents felt adequately prepared by their current therapeutic skills, 50% (209/414) reported a lack of information on how to deal with such concerns in therapy.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that psychotherapists are frequently confronted with climate change-related concerns and regard the mental health impact of climate change on their patients as meaningful to psychotherapeutic care. Regular care could be improved by a continuous refinement of the conceptualization and knowledge of the mental health influences of climate change. This would allow providing tailored methods of assessing and addressing climate change-related concerns in practice.}, }
@article {pmid38589571, year = {2024}, author = {Guhan, V and Annadurai, K and Easwaran, S and Marimuthu, M and Balu, D and Vigneswaran, S and Navinkumar, C}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on water requirement and yield of sugarcane over different agro-climatic zones of Tamil Nadu.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {8239}, pmid = {38589571}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The DSSAT CANEGRO model was calibrated and verified using field experimental data from five Tamil Nadu Agroclimatic Zones (1981-2022). The genetic coefficients of the sugarcane cultivar (CO-86032) were calculated. R[2] obtained between measured and simulated stalk fresh mass was 0.9 with the nRMSE (0.01) and RMSE (1.6) and R[2] between measured and simulated sucrose mass was 0.9 with the nRMSE (0.16) and RMSE (1.2). For yield R[2] obtained between measured and simulated was 0.9 with the nRMSE (0.01) and RMSE (1.6). As a result, the CANEGRO model may be used to mimic the phenology and yield features of the sugarcane cultivar in Tamil Nadu's Agro Climatic Zones. Temperature increases in Agro Climatic Zones resulted in varying yield reductions, with 2 °C increases causing a 3% loss, 3 °C increases 5%, and 4 °C increases 9%. The Water Requirement rose throughout all of the ACZ due to the high temperature, but to differing degrees. A 2 °C increase often results in an average 4% increase in the WR. 3 °C rise in temperature increased WR to 9% and WR rose by 13% when the temperature was raised by 4 °C.}, }
@article {pmid38589038, year = {2024}, author = {Kamkuemah, M and Ayo-Yusuf, O and Oni, T}, title = {Future proofing health in response to climate change and rapid urbanisation in Africa.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {385}, number = {}, pages = {e076476}, doi = {10.1136/bmj-2023-076476}, pmid = {38589038}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid38589535, year = {2024}, author = {Le Roux, R and Furusho-Percot, C and Deswarte, JC and Bancal, MO and Chenu, K and de Noblet-Ducoudré, N and de Cortázar-Atauri, IG and Durand, A and Bulut, B and Maury, O and Décome, J and Launay, M}, title = {Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {8184}, pmid = {38589535}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change threatens food security by affecting the productivity of major cereal crops. To date, agroclimatic risk projections through indicators have focused on expected hazards exposure during the crop's current vulnerable seasons, without considering the non-stationarity of their phenology under evolving climatic conditions. We propose a new method for spatially classifying agroclimatic risks for wheat, combining high-resolution climatic data with a wheat's phenological model. The method is implemented for French wheat involving three GCM-RCM model pairs and two emission scenarios. We found that the precocity of phenological stages allows wheat to avoid periods of water deficit in the near future. Nevertheless, in the coming decades the emergence of heat stress and increasing water deficit will deteriorate wheat cultivation over the French territory. Projections show the appearance of combined risks of heat and water deficit up to 4 years per decade under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The proposed method provides a deep level of information that enables regional adaptation strategies: the nature of the risk, its temporal and spatial occurrence, and its potential combination with other risks. It's a first step towards identifying potential sites for breeding crop varieties to increase the resilience of agricultural systems.}, }
@article {pmid38589184, year = {2022}, author = {Arasaradnam, RP and Hillman, T}, title = {Climate change and health research - lessons from COP26.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {172-173}, doi = {10.7861/clinmed.2021-0780}, pmid = {38589184}, issn = {1473-4893}, }
@article {pmid38589170, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {594-596}, doi = {10.7861/clinmed.ed.22.6.2}, pmid = {38589170}, issn = {1473-4893}, }
@article {pmid38588432, year = {2024}, author = {McWhorter, JK and Halloran, PR and Roff, G and Mumby, PJ}, title = {Climate change impacts on mesophotic regions of the Great Barrier Reef.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {16}, pages = {e2303336121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2303336121}, pmid = {38588432}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {NE/V00865X/1//UK Research and Innovation (UKRI)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change projections for coral reefs are founded exclusively on sea surface temperatures (SST). While SST projections are relevant for the shallowest reefs, neglecting ocean stratification overlooks the striking differences in temperature experienced by deeper reefs for all or part of the year. Density stratification creates a buoyancy barrier partitioning the upper and lower parts of the water column. Here, we mechanistically downscale climate models and quantify patterns of thermal stratification above mesophotic corals (depth 30 to 50 m) of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Stratification insulates many offshore regions of the GBR from heatwaves at the surface. However, this protection is lost once global average temperatures exceed ~3 °C above preindustrial, after which mesophotic temperatures surpass a recognized threshold of 30 °C for coral mortality. Bottom temperatures on the GBR (30 to 50 m) from 2050 to 2060 are estimated to increase by ~0.5 to 1 °C under lower climate emissions (SSP1-1.9) and ~1.2 to 1.7 °C under higher climate emissions (SSP5-8.5). In short, mesophotic coral reefs are also threatened by climate change and research might prioritize the sensitivity of such corals to stress.}, }
@article {pmid38587454, year = {2024}, author = {Ruxin, TR and Morgenroth, DC and Benmarhnia, T and Halsne, EG}, title = {The impact of climate change and related extreme weather on people with limb loss.}, journal = {PM &amp; R : the journal of injury, function, and rehabilitation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/pmrj.13154}, pmid = {38587454}, issn = {1934-1563}, abstract = {The human health consequences of climate change and extreme weather events are well documented. Published literature details the unique effects and necessary adaptation planning for people with physical disabilities in general; however, the specific impacts and plans for people with limb loss have yet to be explored. In this article, we discuss the impacts related to threats due to heat, cold, severe storms, and power outages. We describe how climate change uniquely affects people with limb loss and underscore the need for rehabilitation care providers and researchers to: (1) study the health impacts of climate change on people with lower limb loss; (2) educate themselves and patients on the climate crisis and climate preparedness; (3) co-develop resiliency strategies with patients, governments, and community organizations to improve adaptive capacity; and (4) advocate for policy changes that will enact protections for this at-risk population.}, }
@article {pmid38586230, year = {2024}, author = {Jaramillo Arias, M and Kulkarni, N and Le, A and Holder, CL and Unlu, I and Fu, ES}, title = {Climate Change, Emerging Vector-Borne Illnesses, and Anesthetic Considerations.}, journal = {Cureus}, volume = {16}, number = {4}, pages = {e57517}, pmid = {38586230}, issn = {2168-8184}, abstract = {As a result of the widespread prevalence of anesthetic usage, anesthesia-related complications are well studied, ranging from benign postoperative nausea and vomiting to potentially fatal complications, such as paralysis, malignant hyperthermia, and death. However, one intersection that still needs further analysis is the relationship between vector-borne illnesses (VBIs) and anesthetic complications. With the advent of climate change and global warming, what were previously endemic vectors have spread far beyond their typical regions, resulting in the spread of VBI. As the incidence of VBIs rapidly increases in the United States, operations for diagnostic testing, and thus the identification and treatments of these VBIs, have significantly diminished. A literature review was conducted to analyze case reports of patients with VBIs and anesthetic concerns with sources from PubMed and Google Scholar databases, and a wide range of complications were found.}, }
@article {pmid38586136, year = {2024}, author = {Vuong, QH and Nguyen, MH and La, VP}, title = {A dataset of blockade, vandalism, and harassment activities for the cause of climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {54}, number = {}, pages = {110342}, pmid = {38586136}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Environmental activism is crucial for raising public awareness and support toward addressing the climate crisis. However, using climate change mitigation as the cause for blockade, vandalism, and harassment activities might be counterproductive and risk causing negative repercussions and declining public support. The paper describes a dataset of metadata of 89 blockade, vandalism, and harassment events happening 13 countries in recent years. The dataset comprises three main categories: 1) Events, 2) Activists, and 3) Consequences. For researchers interested in environmental activism, climate change, and sustainability, the dataset is helpful in studying the effectiveness and appropriateness of strategies to raise public awareness and support. For researchers in the field of security studies and green criminology, the dataset offers resources to study features and impacts of blockade, vandalism, and harassment events. The Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) analytics was employed to validate the dataset. Consequently, the estimated result aligns with the Mindsponge Theory's theoretical reasoning.}, }
@article {pmid38583632, year = {2024}, author = {Mohsen, M and Ismail, S and Yuan, X and Yu, Z and Chenggang, L and Yang, H}, title = {Sea cucumber physiological response to abiotic stress: Emergent contaminants and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172208}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172208}, pmid = {38583632}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The ocean is facing a multitude of abiotic stresses due to factors such as climate change and pollution. Understanding how organisms in the ocean respond to these global changes is vital to better predicting consequences. Sea cucumbers are popular echinoderms with multiple ecological, nutritional, and pharmaceutical benefits. Here, we reviewed the effects of environmental change on an ecologically important echinoderm of the ocean, aiming to understand their response better, which could facilitate healthy culture programs under environmental changes and draw attention to knowledge gaps. After screening articles from the databases, 142 studies were included on the influence of emergent contaminants and climate variation on the early developmental stages and adults of sea cucumbers. We outlined the potential mechanism underlying the physiological response of sea cucumbers to emerging contaminants and climate change. It can be concluded that the physiological response of sea cucumbers to emergent contaminants differs from their response to climate change. Sea cucumbers could accumulate pollutants in their organs but are aestivated when exposed to extreme climate change. Research showed that the physiological response of sea cucumbers to pollutants indicates that these pollutants impair critical physiological processes, particularly during the more susceptible early phases of development compared to adults, and the accumulation of these pollutants in adults is often observed. For climate change, sea cucumbers showed gradual adaptation to the slight variation. However, sea cucumbers undergo aestivation under extreme conditions. Based on this review, critical suggestions for future research are presented, and we call for more efforts focusing on the co-occurrence of different stressors to extend the knowledge regarding the effects of environmental changes on these economically and ecologically important species.}, }
@article {pmid38583615, year = {2024}, author = {Kazama, T and Hayakawa, K and Nagata, T and Shimotori, K and Imai, A}, title = {Impact of climate change and oligotrophication on quality and quantity of lake primary production: A case study in Lake Biwa.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172266}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172266}, pmid = {38583615}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global climate change and anthropogenic oligotrophication are expected to reshape the dynamics of primary production (PP) in aquatic ecosystems; however, few studies have explored their long-term effects. In theory, the PP of phytoplankton in Lake Biwa may decline over decades due to warming, heightened stratification, and anthropogenic oligotrophication. Furthermore, the PP of large phytoplankton, which are inedible to zooplankton, along with biomass-specific productivity (PBc), could decrease. In this study, data from 1976 to 2021 and active fluorometry measurements taken in 2020 and 2021 were evaluated. Quantitatively, the temporal dynamics of mean seasonal PP during 1971-2021 were assessed according to the carbon fixation rate to investigate relationships among environmental factors. Qualitatively, phytoplankton biomass, PP, and PBc were measured in two size fractions [edible (S) or inedible (L) for zooplankton] in 2020 and 2021, and the L:S balance for these three measures was compared between 1992 (low-temperature/high-nutrient conditions) and 2020-2021 (high-temperature/low-nutrient conditions) to assess seasonal dynamics. The results indicated that climate change and anthropogenic oligotrophication over the past 30 years have diminished Lake Biwa's PP since the 1990s, impacting the phenology of PP dynamics. However, the L:S balance in PP and PBc has exhibited minimal change between the data from 1992 and the 2020-2021 period. These findings suggest that, although climate change and oligotrophication may reduce overall PP, they may not markedly alter the inedible/edible phytoplankton balance in terms of PP and PBc. Instead, as total PP declines, the production of small edible phytoplankton may decrease proportionally, potentially affecting trophic transfer efficiency and material cycling in Lake Biwa.}, }
@article {pmid38588128, year = {2023}, author = {Pratt, B}, title = {How Should Urban Climate Change Planning Advance Social Justice?.}, journal = {Kennedy Institute of Ethics journal}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {55-89}, doi = {10.1353/ken.2023.a899459}, pmid = {38588128}, issn = {1086-3249}, abstract = {Cities are struggling to balance the moral imperatives of sustainable development, with equity and social justice often ignored and negatively impacted by climate change mitigation and adaptation. Yet, the nature of these impacts on social justice has not been comprehensively investigated and little ethical guidance exists on how to better promote social justice in urban climate change planning practice. This article addresses the normative question: How should urban climate change planning advance social justice? It gathers empirical literature documenting the inclusivity and equity impacts of urban climate change planning and thematically analyses that literature for dimensions of social justice drawn from philosophical and urban justice theory. Study findings demonstrate that four characteristics of climate change planning in cities-underlying neoliberal ideology, unequal treatment, green gentrification, and exclusion from decisionmaking-comprise, create, or worsen social injustices across six dimensions. These characteristics are often interconnected and inseparable. Where neoliberal ideology guides urban climate change planning, the other three characteristics frequently occur as well. The article concludes by arguing that, at a minimum, urban planners and climate planners have an obligation of justice to avoid undertaking climate change planning that exhibits any of the four characteristics and to address injustices generated where planning has such characteristics. It further suggests that planners' negative obligations likely extend beyond this because the literature review revealed gaps in existing empirical data on the equity impacts of urban climate change planning.}, }
@article {pmid38583481, year = {2024}, author = {Alsos, IG and Boussange, V and Rijal, DP and Beaulieu, M and Brown, AG and Herzschuh, U and Svenning, JC and Pellissier, L}, title = {Using ancient sedimentary DNA to forecast ecosystem trajectories under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {379}, number = {1902}, pages = {20230017}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2023.0017}, pmid = {38583481}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order to forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has revolutionised our ability to document past ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared to microfossils (pollen, spores), and can often give species-level information, especially for past vascular plant and mammal abundances. Time series are much richer in information than contemporary spatial distribution information, which have been traditionally used to train models for predicting biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate change. Here, we outline the potential contribution of sedaDNA to forecast ecosystem changes. We showcase how species-level time series may allow quantification of the effect of biotic interactions in ecosystem dynamics, and be used to estimate dispersal rates when a dense network of sites is available. By combining palaeo-time series, process-based models, and inverse modelling, we can recover the biotic and abiotic processes underlying ecosystem dynamics, which are traditionally very challenging to characterise. Dynamic models informed by sedaDNA can further be used to extrapolate beyond current dynamics and provide robust forecasts of ecosystem responses to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.}, }
@article {pmid38582957, year = {2024}, author = {Nelson, B and Faquin, W}, title = {Growing cancer risks on a warming planet: In this first of a two-part series on cancer and climate change, recent natural disasters highlight how global warming is increasing cancer risks and widening health disparities.}, journal = {Cancer cytopathology}, volume = {132}, number = {4}, pages = {200-201}, doi = {10.1002/cncy.22819}, pmid = {38582957}, issn = {1934-6638}, }
@article {pmid38582922, year = {2024}, author = {Olazabal, M and Loroño-Leturiondo, M and Amorim-Maia, AT and Lewis, W and Urrutia, J}, title = {Integrating science and the arts to deglobalise climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2971}, pmid = {38582922}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid38581898, year = {2024}, author = {Shi, J and Xia, M and He, G and Gonzalez, NCT and Zhou, S and Lan, K and Ouyang, L and Shen, X and Jiang, X and Cao, F and Li, H}, title = {Predicting Quercus gilva distribution dynamics and its response to climate change induced by GHGs emission through MaxEnt modeling.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {357}, number = {}, pages = {120841}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120841}, pmid = {38581898}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Quercus gilva, an evergreen tree species in Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis, is an ecologically and economically valuable species in subtropical regions of East Asia. Predicting the impact of climate change on potential distribution of Q. gilva can provide a scientific basis for the conservation and utilization of its genetic resources, as well as for afforestation. In this study, 74 distribution records of Q. gilva and nine climate variables were obtained after data collection and processing. Current climate data downloaded from WorldClim and future climate data predicted by four future climate scenarios (2040s SSP1-2.6, 2040s SSP5-8.5, 2060s SSP1-2.6, and 2060s SSP5-8.5) mainly based on greenhouse gases emissions of distribution sites were used in MaxEnt model with optimized parameters to predict distribution dynamics of Q. gilva and its response to climate change. The results showed that the predicted current distribution was consistent with natural distribution of Q. gilva, which was mainly located in Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guizhou, and Taiwan provinces of China, as well as Japan and Jeju Island of South Korea. Under current climate conditions, precipitation factors played a more significant role than temperature factors on distribution of Q. gilva, and precipitation of driest quarter (BIO17) is the most important restriction factor for its current distribution (contribution rate of 57.35%). Under future climate conditions, mean temperature of driest quarter (BIO9) was the essential climate factor affecting future change in potential distribution of Q. gilva. As the degree of climatic anomaly increased in the future, the total area of predicted distribution of Q. gilva showed a shrinking trend (decreased by 12.24%-45.21%) and Q. gilva would migrate to high altitudes and latitudes. The research results illustrated potential distribution range and suitable climate conditions of Q. gilva, which can provide essential theoretical references for the conservation, development, and utilization of Q. gilva and other related species.}, }
@article {pmid38581714, year = {2024}, author = {Stephens, J and Leslie, K}, title = {Environmental Sustainability and Climate Change Content in Canadian Baccalaureate Nursing Programs.}, journal = {The Journal of nursing education}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {212-217}, doi = {10.3928/01484834-20240207-02}, pmid = {38581714}, issn = {1938-2421}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This study analyzed publicly available resources related to environmental and climate change material available within the Canadian Bachelor of Nursing Program curricula.<br><br>METHOD: This thematic review project contained two stages of data collection: (1) a comprehensive team-based review of Internet materials and (2) a digital survey of program faculties.<br><br>RESULTS: Most content reviewed included references to climate change. According to survey responses from program directors (n = 12), barriers to integrating climate change content included lack of institutional support, the perception that content was not important in undergraduate curriculum, a conviction that the material would be more appropriate for public health, and an overall lack of understanding of the topic by course authors.<br><br>CONCLUSION: With increasing emphasis on the importance of geopolitical health and climate change to many facets of nursing practice, nurse educators require support from colleagues and postsecondary institutions to incorporate this material into undergraduate nursing curricula. [J Nurs Educ. 2024;63(4):212-217.].}, }
@article {pmid38580544, year = {2024}, author = {Roussin-Léveillée, C and Rossi, CAM and Castroverde, CDM and Moffett, P}, title = {The plant disease triangle facing climate change: a molecular perspective.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2024.03.004}, pmid = {38580544}, issn = {1878-4372}, abstract = {Variations in climate conditions can dramatically affect plant health and the generation of climate-resilient crops is imperative to food security. In addition to directly affecting plants, it is predicted that more severe climate conditions will also result in greater biotic stresses. Recent studies have identified climate-sensitive molecular pathways that can result in plants being more susceptible to infection under unfavorable conditions. Here, we review how expected changes in climate will impact plant-pathogen interactions, with a focus on mechanisms regulating plant immunity and microbial virulence strategies. We highlight the complex interactions between abiotic and biotic stresses with the goal of identifying components and/or pathways that are promising targets for genetic engineering to enhance adaptation and strengthen resilience in dynamically changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid38580428, year = {2024}, author = {Pfenning-Butterworth, A and Buckley, LB and Drake, JM and Farner, JE and Farrell, MJ and Gehman, AM and Mordecai, EA and Stephens, PR and Gittleman, JL and Davies, TJ}, title = {Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {e270-e283}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00021-4}, pmid = {38580428}, issn = {2542-5196}, abstract = {The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.}, }
@article {pmid38580422, year = {2024}, author = {Mazumder, H and Hossain, MM}, title = {Climate change education for health-care professionals: crucial gaps in low-income and middle-income countries.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {e216}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00010-X}, pmid = {38580422}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid38580126, year = {2024}, author = {Guan, K and Li, T and Yang, F and Guo, E and Zhang, W and Shi, Y and Yang, X}, title = {Adaptation measures of the potential double cropping region in Northern China to future climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172203}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172203}, pmid = {38580126}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In the context of climate change, the northern climate-based boundaries of the winter wheat-summer maize double cropping system (DCS) have moved northward and westward. The selection of spring maize single cropping system (SCS) or DCS in the potential DCS region in northern China directly affects the annual crop yield, resource use efficiency, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing GHG emissions while improving yield and resource use efficiency is essential to green agricultural development. We used future climate data (2021-2060, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), along with crop and soil data, to assess the applicability of the Denitrification-Decomposition Model (DNDC) for simulating crop yield and GHG emissions. Through simulation of DNDC, we identified a cropping system that prioritized high yield, resource use efficiency, and GHG emissions reduction, adapting to future climate change. Under this cropping system, we quantified the effects of various straw incorporation rates, irrigation, and nitrogen input on crop yield, resource use efficiency, and GHG emissions. We proposed optimal measures to adapt to future climate change while aiming for high yield, resource use efficiency, and GHG emissions reduction. The results show that the DNDC reliably simulated yield and GHG emissions for the (SCS) and the DCS. In counting for greenhouse gas emission intensity (GHGI) as GHG emissions normalized by crop yield, the GHGI was reduced by 86.4 % and 89.2 % in DCS than in SCS under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. In the study area, the DCS should be adopted for high yield, resource use efficiency, and GHG emissions reduction (increased by 28.4 % and 34.4 %) in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 with 1) straw incorporation rate for 100 % of winter wheat and for 60 % of summer maize; 2) total irrigating 240 mm for winter wheat at pre-sowing, jointing, booting, and filling stages; and 3) applying nitrogen of 168 kg·N/ha for both crops.}, }
@article {pmid38576299, year = {2024}, author = {Qamar, W and Qayum, M}, title = {Understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Oral Health in Lower Middle-Income Countries.}, journal = {Journal of the College of Physicians and Surgeons--Pakistan : JCPSP}, volume = {34}, number = {4}, pages = {499}, doi = {10.29271/jcpsp.2024.04.499}, pmid = {38576299}, issn = {1681-7168}, abstract = {Null.}, }
@article {pmid38576083, year = {2024}, author = {Salierno, G}, title = {On the Chemical Pathways Influencing the Effective Global Warming Potential of Commercial Hydrofluoroolefin Gases.}, journal = {ChemSusChem}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e202400280}, doi = {10.1002/cssc.202400280}, pmid = {38576083}, issn = {1864-564X}, abstract = {The enforcement of a global hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerant phase down led to the introduction of hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) as a low Global Warming Potential (GWP) substitute, given their low atmospheric lifetime. However, to this date it is not fully clear the long-term atmospheric fate of HFOs primary degradation products: trifluoro acetaldehyde (TFE), trifluoro acetyl fluoride (TFF), and trifluoroacetic acid (TFA). It particularly concerns the possibility of forming HFC-23, a potent global warming agent. Although the atmospheric reaction networks of TFE, TFF, and TFA have a fair level of complexity, the relevant atmospheric chemical pathways are well characterized in the literature, enabling a comprehensive hazard assessment of HFC-23 formation as a secondary HFO breakdown product in diverse scenarios. A lower bound of the HFOs effective GWP in a baseline scenario is found above regulatory thresholds. While further research is crucial to refine climate risk assessments, the existing evidence suggests a non-negligible climate hazard associated with HFOs.}, }
@article {pmid38575557, year = {2024}, author = {Brehm, J and Gruhl, H}, title = {Increase in concerns about climate change following climate strikes and civil disobedience in Germany.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2916}, pmid = {38575557}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate movements have gained momentum in recent years, aiming to create public awareness of the consequences of climate change through salient climate protests. This paper investigates whether concerns about climate change increase following demonstrative protests and confrontational acts of civil disobedience. Leveraging individual-level survey panel data from Germany, we exploit exogenous variations in the timing of climate protests relative to survey interview dates to compare climate change concerns in the days before and after a protest (N = 24,535). Following climate protests, we find increases in concerns about climate change by, on average, 1.2 percentage points. Further, we find no statistically significant evidence that concerns of any subpopulation decreased after climate protests. Lastly, the increase in concerns following protests is highest when concern levels before the protests are low.}, }
@article {pmid38575037, year = {2024}, author = {Pathak, HK and Chauhan, PK and Seth, CS and Dubey, G and Upadhyay, SK}, title = {Mechanistic and future prospects in rhizospheric engineering for agricultural contaminants removal, soil health restoration, and management of climate change stress.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172116}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172116}, pmid = {38575037}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change, food insecurity, and agricultural pollution are all serious challenges in the twenty-first century, impacting plant growth, soil quality, and food security. Innovative techniques are required to mitigate these negative outcomes. Toxic heavy metals (THMs), organic pollutants (OPs), and emerging contaminants (ECs), as well as other biotic and abiotic stressors, can all affect nutrient availability, plant metabolic pathways, agricultural productivity, and soil-fertility. Comprehending the interactions between root exudates, microorganisms, and modified biochar can aid in the fight against environmental problems such as the accumulation of pollutants and the stressful effects of climate change. Microbes can inhibit THMs uptake, degrade organic pollutants, releases biomolecules that regulate crop development under drought, salinity, pathogenic attack and other stresses. However, these microbial abilities are primarily demonstrated in research facilities rather than in contaminated or stressed habitats. Despite not being a perfect solution, biochar can remove THMs, OPs, and ECs from contaminated areas and reduce the impact of climate change on plants. We hypothesized that combining microorganisms with biochar to address the problems of contaminated soil and climate change stress would be effective in the field. Despite the fact that root exudates have the potential to attract selected microorganisms and biochar, there has been little attention paid to these areas, considering that this work addresses a critical knowledge gap of rhizospheric engineering mediated root exudates to foster microbial and biochar adaptation. Reducing the detrimental impacts of THMs, OPs, ECs, as well as abiotic and biotic stress, requires identifying the best root-associated microbes and biochar adaptation mechanisms.}, }
@article {pmid38574178, year = {2024}, author = {Paz, S}, title = {Climate change: A driver of increasing vector-borne disease transmission in non-endemic areas.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {e1004382}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1004382}, pmid = {38574178}, issn = {1549-1676}, abstract = {In this Perspective, Shlomit Paz discusses the link between climate change and transmission of vector-borne diseases in non-endemic areas.}, }
@article {pmid38573734, year = {2024}, author = {Sohrabizadeh, S and Farahi-Ashtiani, I and Bahramzadeh, A and Eskandari, Z and Moradi, A and Hanafi-Bojd, AA}, title = {Climate change and health: The case of mapping droughts and migration pattern in Iran (2011-2016).}, journal = {Journal of emergency management (Weston, Mass.)}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {113-122}, doi = {10.5055/jem.0814}, pmid = {38573734}, issn = {1543-5865}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Migration and mobility of population have been reported as a common reaction to drought. There is historical evidence to suggest the health effects of droughts and human migration linkage in Iran. This study aimed to map the drought and migration patterns in Iran in 2011 and 2016 and explore their possible health impacts.<br><br>METHODS: This sequential explanatory mixed-method study was done in two stages of spatial analysis and qualitative study. Data mapping was conducted through the equal interval classification and using drought, migration, and agriculture occupation data based on provincial divisions in Iran in 2011 and 2016. This qualitative study was conducted using the content analysis approach.<br><br>RESULTS: The in-migration rate was higher in 2011 rather than 2016. Migration to cities was much higher than migration to villages in both years. The frequency of male migrants was higher than females in all provinces in 2011 and 2016. Physical and mental diseases as well as economic, sociocultural, education, and environment effects on health were extracted from the qualitative data.<br><br>CONCLUSION: A holistic picture of droughts and migration issues in Iran and their health consequences were achieved by the present research. Further research is needed to explore the determinants of health impacts of climate change in vulnerable groups. Public health problems can be prevented by adaptive and preventive policy-making and planning. This can improve the coping capacity of the population facing droughts and enforced migration.}, }
@article {pmid38573732, year = {2024}, author = {Hamshaw, KA and Baker, D}, title = {Manufactured housing communities and climate change: Understanding key vulnerabilities and recommendations for emergency managers.}, journal = {Journal of emergency management (Weston, Mass.)}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {87-99}, doi = {10.5055/jem.0845}, pmid = {38573732}, issn = {1543-5865}, abstract = {Manufactured housing communities (MHCs), commonly referred to as mobile home parks, provide an estimated 2.7 million American households with largely unsubsidized, affordable housing. Climate change threatens those who call these communities home by exacerbating known structural and social vulnerabilities associated with this housing type-including but not limited to increased risks to flooding, extreme temperatures, high winds, and wildfires. Climate change requires emergency managers to understand the diverse, integrated, and complex vulnerabilities of MHCs that affect their exposure to climate change risk. This article presents findings from an integrative literature review focused on the climate-related vulnerabilities of these communities described at three levels of scale: household, housing structure, and park community. It then draws on 15 years of engagement and action research with MHC residents and stakeholders in Vermont, including several federally declared flooding disasters, to distill key recommendations for emergency managers for assisting MHCs to prepare for and respond to emergencies. As climate change accelerates, emergency managers can increase efficacy by learning about the MHCs in their jurisdictions by leveraging the best available data to characterize risks, integrating MHCs into planning and mitigation activities, and engaging in conversations with stakeholders, including MHC residents and their trusted partners.}, }
@article {pmid38573730, year = {2024}, author = {Amoah, A and Asare-Nuamah, P and Limantol, AM and Alhassan, AM}, title = {COVID-19 and climate change concerns: Matters arising.}, journal = {Journal of emergency management (Weston, Mass.)}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {63-69}, doi = {10.5055/jem.0802}, pmid = {38573730}, issn = {1543-5865}, abstract = {Until the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, developing countries, especially countries in the African continent, battled with the impact of climate change on the food value-chain systems and general livelihood. In this study, we discuss climate change concerns post-COVID-19 and argue that the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the vulnerabilities of most developing and emerging economies. This has heightened political tensions and unrest among such developing nations. We suggest enhancement and intensification of efficient and effective locally engineered adaptation strategies in the post-COVID-19 era for countries that have been susceptible to the impact of climate change and other recent shocks.}, }
@article {pmid38573726, year = {2024}, author = {Williams, BD}, title = {Emergency management and sustainability: Understanding the link between disaster and citizen participation for sustainability efforts and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of emergency management (Weston, Mass.)}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {11-23}, doi = {10.5055/jem.0824}, pmid = {38573726}, issn = {1543-5865}, abstract = {The goal of this study is to examine how disaster experience influences local government views on citizen participation in addressing issues of sustainability, such as climate change. This study considers concepts such as wicked problems, the social order, the environment, economic development, and citizen participation where sustainability can be considered a solution to help manage and solve the challenges of disaster, like climate change. The data are taken from a 2015 International City/County Management Association national survey that examines the link between disaster and sustainability. The results show that more than half of the respondents do not view public participation as having much of an impact on sustainability; however, we can expect public participation to increasingly impact sustainability efforts as communities experience more disaster. This suggests that emergency management needs to understand public pressures regarding wicked problems, such as climate change, to collectively address the global influence of environmental, economic, and social issues that have local effects on their communities.}, }
@article {pmid38573725, year = {2024}, author = {Hertelendy, A}, title = {Leveraging technology in emergency management: An opportunity to improve compounding and cascading hazards linked to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of emergency management (Weston, Mass.)}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {9-10}, doi = {10.5055/jem.0854}, pmid = {38573725}, issn = {1543-5865}, }
@article {pmid38572990, year = {2024}, author = {Sorouri, B and Scales, NC and Gaut, BS and Allison, SD}, title = {Sphingomonas clade and functional distribution with simulated climate change.}, journal = {Microbiology spectrum}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e0023624}, doi = {10.1128/spectrum.00236-24}, pmid = {38572990}, issn = {2165-0497}, abstract = {Microbes are essential for the functioning of all ecosystems, and as global warming and anthropogenic pollution threaten ecosystems, it is critical to understand how microbes respond to these changes. We investigated the climate response of Sphingomonas, a widespread gram-negative bacterial genus, during an 18-month microbial community reciprocal transplant experiment across a Southern California climate gradient. We hypothesized that after 18 months, the transplanted Sphingomonas clade and functional composition would correspond with site conditions and reflect the Sphingomonas composition of native communities. We extracted Sphingomonas sequences from metagenomic data across the gradient and assessed their clade and functional composition. Representatives of at least 12 major Sphingomonas clades were found at varying relative abundances along the climate gradient, and transplanted Sphingomonas clade composition shifted after 18 months. Site had a significant effect (PERMANOVA; P < 0.001) on the distribution of both Sphingomonas functional (R[2] = 0.465) and clade composition (R[2] = 0.400), suggesting that Sphingomonas composition depends on climate parameters. Additionally, for both Sphingomonas clade and functional composition, ordinations revealed that the transplanted communities shifted closer to the native Sphingomonas composition of the grassland site compared with the site they were transplanted into. Overall, our results indicate that climate and substrate collectively determine Sphingomonas clade and functional composition.IMPORTANCESphingomonas is the most abundant gram-negative bacterial genus in litter-degrading microbial communities of desert, grassland, shrubland, and forest ecosystems in Southern California. We aimed to determine whether Sphingomonas responds to climate change in the same way as gram-positive bacteria and whole bacterial communities in these ecosystems. Within Sphingomonas, both clade composition and functional genes shifted in response to climate and litter chemistry, supporting the idea that bacteria respond similarly to climate at different scales of genetic variation. This understanding of how microbes respond to perturbation across scales may aid in future predictions of microbial responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38572209, year = {2024}, author = {Finnegan, W and d'Abreu, C}, title = {The hope wheel: a model to enable hope-based pedagogy in Climate Change Education.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1347392}, pmid = {38572209}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {In response to concerns about climate anxiety and distress, researchers and practitioners in both education and psychology have been investigating the importance of engaging climate hope in Climate Change Education (CCE). Synthesizing recent multidisciplinary research, alongside insights from the development of educational programs, this article proposes a new theoretical model for pedagogies of hope in CCE. The Hope Wheel presents three foundational elements: handrails for educators to hold on to while constructively engaging with climate change (honesty, awareness, spaceholding, action), guardrails for educators to be sensitive to when implementing the handrails (climate anxiety, mis-/disinformation, false hope), and lenses to encourage educators to explore connections between complex societal and planetary challenges (complexity, justice, perspectives, creativity, and empathy). This working model aims to support educators by distilling current learnings from the literature into a visual guide. It depicts essential elements to include, as well as avoid, in order to engage honest, hope-oriented CCE for transformative learning in the face of the climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid38572122, year = {2024}, author = {Hedberg, P and Olsson, M and Höglander, H and Brüchert, V and Winder, M}, title = {Climate change effects on plankton recruitment from coastal sediments.}, journal = {Journal of plankton research}, volume = {46}, number = {2}, pages = {117-125}, pmid = {38572122}, issn = {0142-7873}, abstract = {In highly seasonal systems, the emergence of planktonic resting stages from the sediment is a key driver for bloom timing and plankton community composition. The termination of the resting phase is often linked to environmental cues, but the extent to which recruitment of resting stages is affected by climate change remains largely unknown for coastal environments. Here we investigate phyto- and zooplankton recruitment from oxic sediments in the Baltic Sea in a controlled experiment under proposed temperature and light increase during the spring and summer. We find that emergence of resting stage differs between seasons and the abiotic environment. Phytoplankton recruitment from resting stages were high in spring with significantly higher emergence rates at increased temperature and light levels for dinoflagellate and cyanobacteria than for diatoms, which had highest emergence under cold and dark conditions. In comparison, hatching of copepod nauplii was not affected by increased temperature and light levels. These results show that activation of plankton resting stages are affected to different degrees by increasing temperature and light levels, indicating that climate change affects plankton dynamics through processes related to resting stage termination with potential consequences for bloom timing, community composition and trophic mismatch.}, }
@article {pmid38571580, year = {2024}, author = {Chao, K}, title = {Family farming in climate change: Strategies for resilient and sustainable food systems.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {e28599}, pmid = {38571580}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Family farming plays a pivotal role in ensuring household food security and bolstering the resilience of food systems against climate change. Traditional agricultural practices are evolving into context-specific, climate-resilient systems such as family farming, homestead gardening, and urban agriculture. This study examines the ways in which family farming can foster climate-resilient food systems amidst climate vulnerabilities. A systematic literature review spanning the past 22 years was undertaken to develop a conceptual framework. From this review, 37 pertinent documents were identified, leading to the creation of a context-specific, climate-resilient food system framework. The research posits that family farming facilitates easy access to food and nutrition by capitalizing on family-sourced land, labor, and capital, and by securing access to technology and markets. Each facet of family farming is intricately linked with sustainability principles. Local adaptation strategies employed by climate-vulnerable households can diminish their vulnerability and augment their adaptive, absorptive, and transformative capacities, enabling them to establish a climate-resilient food system. The research further reveals that farming families employ a myriad of strategies to fortify their food systems. These include crop diversification, adjusting planting times, cultivating high-value crops and fish, planting fruit trees, rearing poultry and livestock, and leveraging their land, labor, and resources-including their homesteads-to access food and nutrition. This study endorses the climate-resilient family farming framework and offers multiple metrics for assessing the resilience of family farming in developing countries.}, }
@article {pmid38570651, year = {2024}, author = {Graham, F}, title = {Daily briefing: Climate change is slowing Earth's rotation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-00979-9}, pmid = {38570651}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38570279, year = {2024}, author = {Bontpart, T and Weiss, A and Vile, D and Gérard, F and Lacombe, B and Reichheld, JP and Mari, S}, title = {Growing on calcareous soils and facing climate change.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2024.03.013}, pmid = {38570279}, issn = {1878-4372}, abstract = {Soil calcium carbonate (CaCO3) impacts plant mineral nutrition far beyond Fe metabolism, imposing constraints for crop growth and quality in calcareous agrosystems. Our knowledge on plant strategies to tolerate CaCO3 effects mainly refers to Fe acquisition. This review provides an update on plant cellular and molecular mechanisms recently described to counteract the negative effects of CaCO3 in soils, as well as recent efforts to identify genetic bases involved in CaCO3 tolerance from natural populations, that could be exploited to breed CaCO3-tolerant crops. Finally, we review the impact of environmental factors (soil water content, air CO2, and temperature) affecting soil CaCO3 equilibrium and plant tolerance to calcareous soils, and we propose strategies for improvement in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38569957, year = {2024}, author = {Thomas, M and Boulanger, Y and Asselin, H and Lamara, M and Fenton, NJ}, title = {How will climate change and forest harvesting influence the habitat quality of two culturally salient species?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {172148}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172148}, pmid = {38569957}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Boreal landscapes face increasing disturbances which can affect cultural keystone species, i.e. culturally salient species that shape in a major way the cultural identity of a people. Given their importance, the fate of such species should be assessed to be able to act to ensure their perennity. We assessed how climate change and forest harvesting will affect the habitat quality of Rhododendron groenlandicum and Vaccinium angustifolium, two cultural keystone species for many Indigenous peoples in eastern Canada. We used the forest landscape model LANDIS-II in combination with species distribution models to simulate the habitat quality of these two species on the territories of three Indigenous communities according to different climate change and forest harvesting scenarios. Climate-sensitive parameters included wildfire regimes as well as tree growth. Moderate climate change scenarios were associated with an increased proportion of R. groenlandicum and V. angustifolium in the landscape, the latter species also responding positively to severe climate change scenarios. Harvesting had a minimal effect, but slightly decreased the probability of presence of both species where it occurred. According to the modeling results, neither species is at risk under moderate climate change scenarios. However, under severe climate change, R. groenlandicum could decline as the proportion of deciduous trees would increase in the landscape. Climate change mitigation strategies, such as prescribed fires, may be necessary to limit this increase. This would prevent the decrease of R. groenlandicum, as well as contribute to preserve biodiversity and harvestable volumes.}, }
@article {pmid38569113, year = {2024}, author = {Ponsonby, W and Di Corleto, R}, title = {Climate change and heat stress.}, journal = {Occupational medicine (Oxford, England)}, volume = {74}, number = {2}, pages = {138-139}, doi = {10.1093/occmed/kqad129}, pmid = {38569113}, issn = {1471-8405}, }
@article {pmid38568978, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, Y and Hu, W and Sun, H and Zhao, Y and Zhang, P and Li, Z and Zhou, Z and Tong, Y and Liu, S and Zhou, J and Huang, M and Jia, X and Clothier, B and Shao, M and Zhou, W and An, Z}, title = {Soil moisture decline in China's monsoon loess critical zone: More a result of land-use conversion than climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {15}, pages = {e2322127121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2322127121}, pmid = {38568978}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {XDB40020203//Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)/ ; 2019YFA0607303//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 41971045 U2243204 42177306//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2023JC-XJ-10//Shaanxi Province Natural Science Basic Research Program/ ; 2024RS-CXTD-45//Shaanxi Innovation Capacity Support Program Project/ ; }, abstract = {Soil moisture (SM) is essential for sustaining services from Earth's critical zone, a thin-living skin spanning from the canopy to groundwater. In the Anthropocene epoch, intensive afforestation has remarkably contributed to global greening and certain service improvements, often at the cost of reduced SM. However, attributing the response of SM in deep soil to such human activities is a great challenge because of the scarcity of long-term observations. Here, we present a 37 y (1985 to 2021) analysis of SM dynamics at two scales across China's monsoon loess critical zone. Site-scale data indicate that land-use conversion from arable cropland to forest/grassland caused an 18% increase in SM deficit over 0 to 18 m depth (P < 0.01). Importantly, this SM deficit intensified over time, despite limited climate change influence. Across the Loess Plateau, SM storage in 0 to 10 m layer exhibited a significant decreasing trend from 1985 to 2021, with a turning point in 1999 when starting afforestation. Compared with SM storage before 1999, the relative contributions of climate change and afforestation to SM decline after 1999 were -8% and 108%, respectively. This emphasizes the pronounced impacts of intensifying land-use conversions as the principal catalyst of SM decline. Such a decline shifts 18% of total area into an at-risk status, mainly in the semiarid region, thereby threatening SM security. To mitigate this risk, future land management policies should acknowledge the crucial role of intensifying land-use conversions and their interplay with climate change. This is imperative to ensure SM security and sustain critical zone services.}, }
@article {pmid38567368, year = {2024}, author = {Heilmann, A and Rueda, Z and Alexander, D and Laupland, KB and Keynan, Y}, title = {Impact of climate change on amoeba and the bacteria they host.}, journal = {Journal of the Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Disease Canada = Journal officiel de l'Association pour la microbiologie medicale et l'infectiologie Canada}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1-5}, pmid = {38567368}, issn = {2371-0888}, }
@article {pmid38567135, year = {2024}, author = {Osorio-Marín, J and Fernandez, E and Vieli, L and Ribera, A and Luedeling, E and Cobo, N}, title = {Climate change impacts on temperate fruit and nut production: a systematic review.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1352169}, pmid = {38567135}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Temperate fruit and nut crops require distinctive cold and warm seasons to meet their physiological requirements and progress through their phenological stages. Consequently, they have been traditionally cultivated in warm temperate climate regions characterized by dry-summer and wet-winter seasons. However, fruit and nut production in these areas faces new challenging conditions due to increasingly severe and erratic weather patterns caused by climate change. This review represents an effort towards identifying the current state of knowledge, key challenges, and gaps that emerge from studies of climate change effects on fruit and nut crops produced in warm temperate climates. Following the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we analyzed 403 articles published between 2000 and 2023 that met the defined eligibility criteria. A 44-fold increase in the number of publications during the last two decades reflects a growing interest in research related to both a better understanding of the effects of climate anomalies on temperate fruit and nut production and the need to find strategies that allow this industry to adapt to current and future weather conditions while reducing its environmental impacts. In an extended analysis beyond the scope of the systematic review methodology, we classified the literature into six main areas of research, including responses to environmental conditions, water management, sustainable agriculture, breeding and genetics, prediction models, and production systems. Given the rapid expansion of climate change-related literature, our analysis provides valuable information for researchers, as it can help them identify aspects that are well understood, topics that remain unexplored, and urgent questions that need to be addressed in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38566114, year = {2024}, author = {Syropoulos, S and Law, KF and Mah, A and Young, L}, title = {Intergenerational concern relates to constructive coping and emotional reactions to climate change via increased legacy concerns and environmental cognitive alternatives.}, journal = {BMC psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {182}, pmid = {38566114}, issn = {2050-7283}, support = {62221//John Templeton Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {As the threat of climate change looms large, and we experience first-hand the impacts of rapid global warming, researchers and clinicians emphasize the need to better understand the impact of these changes on our mental health. Existing research suggests that coping with and emotional reactions to climate change can promote action to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change and reduce its negative impacts to one's mental health. In this pre-registered study (N = 771) we examined whether people who display extreme intergenerational concern would also constructively cope with climate change. Empirically-identified individuals showing high intergenerational concern reported more problem-focused and meaning-based coping, and less avoidant coping strategies with climate change. Further, even though they felt guilty, angry, sorrowful and isolated, these individuals also felt hopeful about the future. These effects were explained by increased concerns about one's legacy and higher access to environmental cognitive alternatives. By instilling values that highlight intergenerational concern as a key priority, we could thus not only increase pro-climate action, but also help individuals actively and constructively cope with changes produced by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38565417, year = {2024}, author = {Navas-Martín, M&#xc1; and Cuerdo-Vilches, T and López-Bueno, JA and Díaz, J and Linares, C and Sánchez-Martínez, G}, title = {Human adaptation to heat in the context of climate change: A conceptual framework.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118803}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118803}, pmid = {38565417}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Climate change is causing serious damage to natural and social systems, as well as having an impact on human health. Among the direct effects of climate change is the rise in global surface temperatures and the increase in the frequency, duration, intensity and severity of heat waves. In addition, understanding of the adaptation process of the exposed population remains limited, posing a challenge in accurately estimating heat-related morbidity and mortality. In this context, this study seeks to establish a conceptual framework that would make it easier to understand and organise knowledge about human adaptation to heat and the factors that may influence this process. An inductive approach based on grounded theory was used, through the analysis of case studies connecting concepts. The proposed conceptual framework is made up of five components (climate change, vulnerability, health risks of heat, axes of inequality and health outcomes), three heat-adaptation domains (physiological, cultural and political), two levels (individual and social), and the pre-existing before a heat event. The application of this conceptual framework facilitates the assistance of decision-makers in planning and implementing effective adaptation measures. Recognizing the importance of addressing heat adaptation as a health problem that calls for political solutions and social changes. Accordingly, this requires a multidisciplinary approach that would foster the participation and collaboration of multiple actors for the purpose of proposing effective measures to address the health impact of the rise in temperature.}, }
@article {pmid38564234, year = {2024}, author = {Levett-Jones, T and Bonnamy, J and Cornish, J and Correia Moll, E and Fields, L and Moroney Oam, T and Richards, C and Tutticci, N and Ward, A}, title = {Celebrating Australian nurses who are pioneering the response to climate change: a compilation of case studies.}, journal = {Contemporary nurse}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-13}, doi = {10.1080/10376178.2024.2336230}, pmid = {38564234}, issn = {1839-3535}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Nurses, the largest healthcare workforce, are well placed to provide leadership in initiatives that promote planetary health. Yet, few practical examples of nurse leadership in the health sector's response to climate change are evident in the scholarly literature.<br><br>AIM: The aim of this discussion paper is to profile Australian nurses who are leading initiatives designed to champion planetary health and promote sustainable practice.<br><br>METHODS: The paper presents a series of case studies derived from interviews conducted in October and November 2023.<br><br>FINDINGS: The nurses' experiences and insights, along with the challenges they have encountered, are presented as evidence of Kouzes and Posner's five practices of exemplary leadership.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The case studies demonstrate that appointment of more nurses with climate and sustainability expertise will accelerate the implementation of responsive strategies that target waste management, emissions reduction and climate resilience across healthcare organisations.}, }
@article {pmid38564123, year = {2024}, author = {Tang, X and Feng, Y and Xi, M and Chen, S and Wang, R and Lei, Z}, title = {Dynamic simulation and projection of ESV changes in arid regions caused by urban growth under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {5}, pages = {411}, pmid = {38564123}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Spatial simulation and projection of ecosystem services value (ESV) changes caused by urban growth are important for sustainable development in arid regions. We developed a new model of cellular automata based grasshopper optimization algorithm (named GOA-CA) for simulating urban growth patterns and assessing the impacts of urban growth on ESV changes under climate change scenarios. The results show that GOA-CA yielded overall accuracy exceeding 98%, and FOM for 2010 and 2020 were 43.2% and 38.1%, respectively, indicating the effectiveness of the model. The prairie lost the highest economic ESVs (192 million USD) and the coniferous yielded the largest economic ESV increase (292 million USD) during 2000-2020. Using climate change scenarios as urban future land use demands, we projected three scenarios of the urban growth of Urumqi for 2050 and their impacts on ESV. Our model can be easily applied to simulating urban development, analyzing its impact on ESV and projecting future scenarios in global arid regions.}, }
@article {pmid38563357, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, C and Miller, G and Setoguchi, S}, title = {Climate change and excess length of stay: A call to action for health equity and environmental sustainability.}, journal = {Journal of hospital medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jhm.13348}, pmid = {38563357}, issn = {1553-5606}, }
@article {pmid38563000, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, J and Zhu, A and Wang, X and Zhou, X and Chen, L}, title = {Predicting the current fishable habitat distribution of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) and its shift in the future under climate change in the Southern Ocean.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {e17131}, pmid = {38563000}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Global warming continues to exert unprecedented impacts on marine habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) are proven powerful in predicting habitat distribution for marine demersal species under climate change impacts. The Antarctic toothfish, Dissostichus mawsoni (Norman 1937), an ecologically and commercially significant species, is endemic to the Southern Ocean. Utilizing occurrence records and environmental data, we developed an ensemble model that integrates various modelling techniques. This model characterizes species-environment relationships and predicts current and future fishable habitats of D. mawsoni under four climate change scenarios. Ice thickness, depth and mean water temperature were the top three important factors in affecting the distribution of D. mawsoni. The ensemble prediction suggests an overall expansion of fishable habitats, potentially due to the limited occurrence records from fishery-dependent surveys. Future projections indicate varying degrees of fishable habitat loss in large areas of the Amery Ice Shelf's eastern and western portions. Suitable fishable habitats, including the spawning grounds in the seamounts around the northern Ross Sea and the coastal waters of the Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea, were persistent under present and future environmental conditions, highlighting the importance to protect these climate refugia from anthropogenic disturbance. Though data deficiency existed in this study, our predictions can provide valuable information for designing climate-adaptive development and conservation strategies in maintaining the sustainability of this species.}, }
@article {pmid38560259, year = {2024}, author = {Azeez, RO and Rampedi, IT and Ifegbesan, AP and Ogunyemi, B}, title = {Geo-demographics and source of information as determinants of climate change consciousness among citizens in African countries.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {e27872}, pmid = {38560259}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change constitutes one of the greatest threats to human health globally and there have been increasing interests in understanding the dynamics of climate change consciousness particularly in less industrialised countries of Africa. Research on cross-country, sub-regional and continent differences in climate change consciousness are rare especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, to complement the existing body of literature, this study was conducted on cross-national predictors of public climate change consciousness. Data from the Afrobarometer round 7 for thirty-four [34] African countries, collected between 2017 and 2020, were used to investigate the influence of geographical, socio-demographics, and source of information on public consciousness of climate change. Statistical analyses of t-test, ANOVA and multiple regression were conducted to test the formulated hypotheses. Results showed a low level of climate change consciousness (CCC) among participants. Radio news was the major source of information for the sampled African citizens. There were significant differences in the CCC of male and female as well as between urban and rural respondents. Significant differences were also found among the sub-regions, educational levels, age groups and occupations. Sources of information and demographic variables significantly influenced the level of CCC among participating citizens. Educational attainment was the single most potent predictor of climate change consciousness. The study recommends that African citizens need capacity building on climate change awareness and initiatives which would assist in mitigating the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38559765, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, FG and Zhang, S and Wu, K and Zhao, R and Zhao, G and Wang, Y}, title = {Potential habitat areas and priority protected areas of Tilia amurensis Rupr in China under the context of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1365264}, pmid = {38559765}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Tilia amurensis Rupr (T. amurensis) is one endangered and national class II key protected wild plant in China. It has ornamental, material, economic, edible and medicinal values. At present, the resources of T. amurensis are decreasing, and the prediction of the distribution of its potential habitat in China can provide a theoretical basis for the cultivation and rational management of this species.<br><br>METHODS: In this study, the R language was used to evaluate 358 distribution records and 38 environment variables. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution areas of T. amurensis under the current and future climate scenarios. The dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. amurensis were analyzed and the Marxan model was used to plan the priority protected areas of this species.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that Bio18, Slope, Elev, Bio1, Bio9 and Bio2 were the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. amurensis. Under the future climatic scenarios, the potential suitable areas for T. amurensis will mainly distribute in the Northeast China, the total suitable area will reduce compared with the current climate scenarios, and the general trend of the centroid of suitable habitat will be towards higher latitudes. The SPF value of the best plan obtained from the priority conservation area planning was 1.1, the BLM value was 127,616, and the priority conservation area was about 57.61&#xd7;10[4] km[2]. The results suggested that climate, soil and topographic factors jointly affected the potential geographical distribution of T. amurensis, and climate and topographic factors had greater influence than soil factors.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The total suitable area of T. amurensis in China under different climate scenarios in the future will decrease, so more effective protection should be actively adopted.}, }
@article {pmid38557709, year = {2024}, author = {El-Mahdy, ME and Abdel-Monsef, M and Abo-Elella, S and Shahba, M}, title = {Impact of climate change on the water resources of the Atbara River using novel hydrological models.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {89}, number = {6}, pages = {1419-1440}, pmid = {38557709}, issn = {0273-1223}, abstract = {Rivers respond directly to climate change, as well as incorporating the effects of climate-driven changes occurring within their watersheds. In this research, climate change's impact on the Atbara River, one of the main tributaries of the Nile River, was studied. Various statistical methods of analysis were applied to study the basic characteristics of the climatic parameters that affect the discharge of the Atbara River. The three hydrological gauging stations on the Atbara River, namely, the Upper Atbara and Setit reservoirs, Khashm el-Girba reservoir, and Atbara Kilo 3 station, were included in the study. The correlation between the meteorological parameters and the hydrology of the Atbara River and the prediction of the future hydrology of the Atbara River Basin was determined. Many hydrological models were developed and tested to predict the hydrology of the river. Finally, forecasting for river hydrology was built. No significant trend was found in the precipitation in the study area. The developed model simulates the observed data with a high coefficient of determination ranging from 0.7 to 0.91 for the three hydrological gauging stations studied. Results predicted a slight decrease in river discharge in future years.}, }
@article {pmid38557181, year = {2024}, author = {Emanuel, K}, title = {Cyclone Jasper's rains in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {15}, pages = {e2400292121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2400292121}, pmid = {38557181}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {2202785//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Cyclone Jasper struck northern Queensland in mid-December, 2023, causing extensive flooding stemming from torrential rain. Many stations reported rainfall totals exceeding 1 m, and a few surpassed 2 m, possibly making Jasper the wettest tropical cyclone in Australian history. To be better prepared for events like Jasper, it is useful to estimate the probability of rainfall events of Jasper's magnitude and how that probability is likely to evolve as climate warms. To make such estimates, we apply an advanced tropical cyclone downscaling technique to nine global climate models, generating a total of 27,000 synthetic tropical cyclones each for the climate of the recent past and that of the end of this century. We estimate that the annual probability of 1 m of rain from tropical cyclones at Cairns increases from about 0.8% at the end of the 20th century to about 2.3% at the end of the 21st, a factor of almost three. Interpolating frequency to the year 2023 suggests that the current annual probability of Jasper's rainfall is about 1.2%, about a 50% increase over that of the year 2000. Further analysis suggests that the primary causes of increasing rainfall are stronger cyclones and a moister atmosphere.}, }
@article {pmid38556944, year = {2024}, author = {Piper, WH and Glines, MR and Rose, KC}, title = {Climate change-associated declines in water clarity impair feeding by common loons.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e4291}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.4291}, pmid = {38556944}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {72067419FA00001//United States Agency for International Development/ ; DBI-1754265//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-0717055//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-2048031//National Science Foundation/ ; IBN-0316442//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has myriad impacts on ecosystems, but the mechanisms by which it affects individual species can be difficult to pinpoint. One strategy to discover such mechanisms is to identify a specific ecological factor related to survival or reproduction and determine how that factor is affected by climate. Here we used Landsat imagery to calculate water clarity for 127 lakes in northern Wisconsin from 1995 to 2021 and thus investigate the effect of clarity on the body condition of an aquatic visual predator, the common loon (Gavia immer). In addition, we examined rainfall and temperature as potential predictors of water clarity. Body mass tracked July water clarity strongly in loon chicks, which grow chiefly in that month, but weakly in adult males and females. Long-term mean water clarity was negatively related to chick mass but positively related to adult male mass, suggesting that loons foraging in generally clear lakes enjoy good foraging conditions in the long run but might be sensitive to perturbations in clarity during chick-rearing. Finally, chick mass was positively related to the density of docks, perhaps because angling removes large fishes and thus boosts the abundance of the small fishes on which chicks depend. Water clarity itself declined strongly from 1995 to 2021, was negatively related to July rainfall, and was positively related to July air temperature. Our findings identified both long-term and short-term water clarity as strong predictors of loon foraging efficiency, and suggest that climate change, through water clarity, impacts freshwater ecosystems profoundly. Moreover, our results identified the recent decrease in water clarity as a likely cause of population decline in common loons.}, }
@article {pmid38555563, year = {2024}, author = {Mori, M and Longépée, E and Lefer-Sauvage, G and Banos, A and Becu, N and Charpentier, P and Claverie, T and Jeanson, M and Le Duff, M and Provitolo, D and Stoica, G}, title = {Climate change by any other name: Social representations and language practices of coastal inhabitants on Mayotte Island in the Indian Ocean.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {9636625241235375}, doi = {10.1177/09636625241235375}, pmid = {38555563}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {As population-related climate change research increases, so does the need to nuance approaches to this complex phenomenon, including issues related to cultural and linguistic translations. To explore how climate change is understood in understudied societies, a case-study approach is taken to address social representations of climate change by inhabitants of a Maore village in the French island of Mayotte. The study explores how local fishers understand the issue when considering observed environmental changes. Based on analyses of 30 interviews, the study found that social representations and related climate change discourses are not well established, except for individuals in close contact with French institutions. Issues regarding local culture and language reveal the importance of understanding the different components of climate change. Climate change communication and awareness-raising on the island are explored, as well as considerations of culturally and linguistically complex settings with a Global North/Global South interface.}, }
@article {pmid38555531, year = {2024}, author = {Barbour, V}, title = {Health and climate change: call for sustainability in Australia's health care sector.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {220}, number = {6}, pages = {281}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.52264}, pmid = {38555531}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Care Sector ; Australia ; }, }
@article {pmid38555376, year = {2024}, author = {Qasim, S and Mahmood, T and Rakha, BA and Nadeem, MS and Akrim, F and Aslam, A and Belant, JL}, title = {Predicting current and future habitat of Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {7564}, pmid = {38555376}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is among the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss, threatening up to 15-30% of described species by the end of the twenty-first century. We estimated the current suitable habitat and forecasted future distribution ranges of Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) under climate change scenarios. We collected occurrence records of Indian pangolin using burrow counts, remote camera records and previously published literature in Pakistan during 2021-2023. We downloaded bioclimatic data for current (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100) climate scenarios from the WorldClim database using the Hadley Global Environment Model (HadGEM3-GC31-LL). We used MaxEnt software to predict current and future distributions of Indian pangolin, then computed the amount of habitat lost, gained, and unchanged across periods. We obtained 560 Indian pangolin occurrences overall, 175 during the study, and 385 from our literature search. Model accuracy was very good (AUC = 0.885, TSS = 0.695), and jackknife tests of variable importance showed that the contribution of annual mean temperature (bio1) was greatest (33.4%), followed by the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio-12, 29.3%), temperature seasonality (bio 4, 25.9%), and precipitation seasonality (bio 15, 11.5%). The maxent model predicted that during the current time period (1970-2000) highly suitable habitat for Indian pangolin was (7270 km[2], 2.2%), followed by moderately suitable (12,418 km[2], 3.7%), less suitable (49,846 km[2], 14.8%), and unsuitable habitat (268,355 km[2], 79.4%). Highly suitable habitat decreased in the western part of the study area under most SSPs and in the central parts it declined under all SSPs and in future time periods. The predicted loss in the suitable habitat of the Indian pangolin was greatest (26.97%) under SSP 585 followed by SSP 126 (23.67%) during the time 2061-2080. The gain in suitable habitat of Indian pangolin was less than that of losses on average which ranged between 1.91 and 13.11% under all SSPs during all time periods. While the stable habitat of the Indian pangolin ranged between 64.60 and 83.85% under all SSPs during all time periods. Our study provides the current and future habitat ranges of Indian pangolin in the face of a changing climate. The findings of our study could be helpful for policymakers to set up conservation strategies for Indian pangolin in Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid38554872, year = {2024}, author = {Fathy, RF}, title = {Divergent perspectives on the synergistic impacts of thermal-chemical stress on aquatic biota within the framework of climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {141810}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2024.141810}, pmid = {38554872}, issn = {1879-1298}, abstract = {Climate change, including global warming, leads to rising temperatures in aquatic ecosystems, which is one of the numerous repercussions it brings. Furthermore, water warming can indirectly impact aquatic organisms by modifying the toxicity levels of pollutants. Nevertheless, numerous studies have explored the potential impacts of chemical stress on aquatic biota, but little is known about how such chemicals and toxins interact with climate change factors, especially elevated temperatures. As such, this review paper focuses on exploring the potential effects of thermochemical stress on a wide sector of aquatic organisms, including aquatic vertebrates and invertebrates, in various aquatic ecosystems (freshwater and marine systems). Herein, the objective of this study is to explore the most up-to-date the impact of water warming (without chemical stress) and thermochemical stress on various biochemical and physiological processes in aquatic fauna and how this greatly affects biodiversity and sustainability. Therefore, there is a growing need to understand and evaluate this synergistic mechanism and its potential hazardous impacts. However, we need further investigations and scientific reports to address this serious environmental issue in order to confront anthropogenic pollutants regarding climate change and chemical pollution risks in the near future and subsequently find sustainable solutions for them.}, }
@article {pmid38554453, year = {2024}, author = {Manzoor, MA and Xu, Y and Lv, Z and Xu, J and Shah, IH and Sabir, IA and Wang, Y and Sun, W and Liu, X and Wang, L and Liu, R and Jiu, S and Zhang, C}, title = {Horticulture crop under pressure: Unraveling the impact of climate change on nutrition and fruit cracking.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {357}, number = {}, pages = {120759}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120759}, pmid = {38554453}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly affecting the nutritional content and structural integrity of horticultural crops, leading to challenges such as diminished fruit quality and the exacerbation of fruit cracking. This manuscript systematically explores the multifaceted impacts of these changes, with a particular focus on the nutritional quality and increased incidence of fruit cracking. An exhaustive review of current research identifies the critical role of transcription factors in mediating plant responses to climatic stressors, such as drought, temperature extremes, and saline conditions. The significance of transcription factors, including bHLH, bZIP, DOF, MDP, HD-ZIP, MYB, and ERF4, is highlighted in the development of fruit cracking, underscoring the genetic underpinnings behind stress-related phenotypic outcomes. The effectiveness of greenhouse structures in mitigating adverse climatic effects is evaluated, offering a strategic approach to sustain crop productivity amidst CO2 fluctuations and water scarcity, which are shown to influence plant physiology and lead to changes in fruit development, nutrient dynamics, and a heightened risk of cracking. Moreover, the manuscript delves into advanced breeding strategies and genetic engineering techniques, such as genome editing, to enhance crop resilience against climatic challenges. It also discusses adaptation strategies vital for sustainable horticulture, emphasizing the need to integrate novel genetic insights with controlled environment horticulture to counteract climate change's detrimental effects. The synthesis presented here underscores the urgent need for innovative breeding strategies aimed at developing resilient crop varieties that can withstand climatic uncertainty while preserving nutritional integrity.}, }
@article {pmid38552152, year = {2024}, author = {Coleine, C and Delgado-Baquerizo, M and DiRuggiero, J and Guirado, E and Harfouche, AL and Perez-Fernandez, C and Singh, BK and Selbmann, L and Egidi, E}, title = {Dryland microbiomes reveal community adaptations to desertification and climate change.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/ismejo/wrae056}, pmid = {38552152}, issn = {1751-7370}, abstract = {Drylands account for 45% of the Earth's land area, supporting approximately 40% of the global population. These regions support some of the most extreme environments on Earth, characterized by extreme temperatures, low and variable rainfall, and low soil fertility. In these biomes, microorganisms provide vital ecosystem services and have evolved distinctive adaptation strategies to endure and flourish in the extreme. However, dryland microbiomes and the ecosystem services they provide are under threat due to intensifying desertification and climate change. In this review, we provide a synthesis of our current understanding of microbial life in drylands, emphasizing the remarkable diversity and adaptations of these communities. We then discuss anthropogenic threats, including the influence of climate change on dryland microbiomes and outline current knowledge gaps. Finally, we propose research priorities to address those gaps and safeguard the sustainability of these fragile biomes.}, }
@article {pmid38550237, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, P and Leonard, A and Lanza, MF and Ireri, M and Hirmer, S}, title = {Perceived values and climate change resilience dataset in Siaya County, Kenya.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {54}, number = {}, pages = {110317}, pmid = {38550237}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {This dataset presents perceived values and socioeconomic indicators collected in Siaya, a rural county in Kenya in 2022. The data was obtained from 300 household surveys and group interviews conducted in six sub-counties across eleven villages. Socioeconomic data were collected with a special focus on climate change vulnerability. Information on housing, health, water accessibility and usage, electricity accessibility and usage, extreme weather events, community service, and information accessibility were mapped across survey questions. The user-perceived value (UPV) game - a perception-based surveying approach - was used to elicit local communities' needs and perceptions of climate change challenges. The UPV game involves asking interviewees to select which graphically depicted items would be most necessary in different situations and probing them for the reasons behind their choices (why-probing). The data was collected in two languages (Dholuo and English) and then translated into English. These surveys and interviews were conducted to better understand the needs of rural Kenyan communities and their perceptions of climate change, with the aim to identify ways to build resilience. Kenyan policymakers can use the dataset to inform county-level energy and development plans, while researchers and development practitioners can use the dataset to better design their research and programmes to reflect local needs and values.}, }
@article {pmid38548852, year = {2024}, author = {Barcellos, C and Matos, V and Lana, RM and Lowe, R}, title = {Author Correction: Climate change, thermal anomalies, and the recent progression of dengue in Brazil.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {7428}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-024-58202-8}, pmid = {38548852}, issn = {2045-2322}, }
@article {pmid38547922, year = {2024}, author = {Michaud, A and Leigh, R}, title = {Letter from Canada: Global warming and wildfire smoke pollution emerging as major threats to respiratory health.}, journal = {Respirology (Carlton, Vic.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/resp.14716}, pmid = {38547922}, issn = {1440-1843}, }
@article {pmid38547189, year = {2024}, author = {Singh, A and Ezzine, T and Guinto, RR and Gepp, S and Parks, RM and Thondoo, M and Patil, P and van Daalen, KR}, title = {Reflections from COP28: Resisting healthwashing in climate change negotiations.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {e0003076}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pgph.0003076}, pmid = {38547189}, issn = {2767-3375}, }
@article {pmid38547175, year = {2024}, author = {Kerry, V and Sayeed, S}, title = {Advancing the climate change and health nexus: The 2024 Agenda.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {e0003008}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pgph.0003008}, pmid = {38547175}, issn = {2767-3375}, }
@article {pmid38546922, year = {2024}, author = {Kozari, A and Gkellis, S and Voutsa, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on formation of nitrogenous disinfection by-products. Part II: water blooming and enrichment by humic substances.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38546922}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Climate change affects the concentration and characteristics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in surface water. The changes in composition of DOM have many implications to drinking water quality, especially in the case of formation of disinfection by-products (DBPs). The aim of this study was to investigate the formation of nitrogenous DBPs (N-DBPs) during chlorination and chloramination, caused by the alternation of surface water's DOM driven by climate change. For this reason, two different cases were examined: (a) rise of algal organic matter (AOM) due to water blooming and (b) water enrichment by humic substances. The target compounds were haloacetonitriles (HANs), haloacetamides (HAcAms), and halonitromethane (TCNM). The results showed that Anabaena appears to be a major precursor for HAcAms and TCNM, while humic acids are precursors for HANs. The results of the mixtures presented the same pattern. During the water blooming case, HAcAms and TCNM formation are in favor, while during water enrichment by humic substances case, HANs is the N-DBP group with higher formation yield. Cloraminated samples presented higher values of cytotoxicity and genotoxicity compared to the chlorinated.}, }
@article {pmid38546370, year = {2024}, author = {Karunarathne, P and Zhou, Q and Lascoux, M and Milesi, P}, title = {Hybridization mediated range expansion and climate change resilience in two keystone tree species of boreal forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {e17262}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17262}, pmid = {38546370}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Current global climate change is expected to affect biodiversity negatively at all scales leading to mass biodiversity loss. Many studies have shown that the distribution of allele frequencies across a species' range is often influenced by specific genetic loci associated with local environmental variables. This association reflects local adaptation and allele changes at those loci could thereby contribute to the evolutionary response to climate change. However, predicting how species will adapt to climate change from this type of data alone remains challenging. In the present study, we combined exome capture sequences and environmental niche reconstruction, to test multiple methods for assessing local adaptation and climate resilience in two widely distributed conifers, Norway spruce and Siberian spruce. Both species are keystone species of the boreal forest and share a vast hybrid zone. We show that local adaptation in conifers can be detected through allele frequency variation, population-level ecological preferences, and historical niche movement. Moreover, we integrated genetic and ecological information into genetic offset predictive models to show that hybridization plays a central role in expanding the niche breadth of the two conifer species and may help both species to cope better with future changing climates. This joint genetic and ecological analysis also identified spruce populations that are at risk under current climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38546164, year = {2024}, author = {Chi, L and Boucaut, R and Li, LSK and Fryer, CE and Kumar, S}, title = {Australian physiotherapists' knowledge and views on the relationship between climate change, health, and physiotherapy.}, journal = {Physiotherapy research international : the journal for researchers and clinicians in physical therapy}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {e2085}, doi = {10.1002/pri.2085}, pmid = {38546164}, issn = {1471-2865}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Climate change is an important issue for the health of communities globally and the conduct of health care practice. Little is currently known about the knowledge and views of Australian physiotherapists in relation to the issue of climate change. Thus, the purpose of this study was to investigate Australian physiotherapists' views on, and practice in relation to, climate change and its effects on health.<br><br>METHODS: A quantitative cross-sectional study using a modified version of a published survey was undertaken. Using a comprehensive distribution strategy, the survey (23 questions) was disseminated through professional associations, networks of the research team and social media. Data were summarized descriptively.<br><br>RESULTS: One hundred and thirty physiotherapists accessed the final survey. Ninety-five surveys were eligible for analysis. 90.4% of participants were certain about the existence of climate change. 79.6% of participants thought that climate change was already impacting their patients' health, but only 19.4% of participants felt "very knowledgeable" about the health impacts of climate change. Main barriers to addressing climate change with patients were identified as lack of time and knowledge. 77.2% of participants indicated support for receiving education on climate change and health as continuing professional education. 70.9% of participants agreed that their professional association had a significant advocacy role in climate change and health.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Australian physiotherapists are witnessing the impact of climate change and support strategies to mitigate it. These strategies can be implemented at an individual level (e.g., further physiotherapy training) and at a professional organizational level (e.g., guidance from professional associations).}, }
@article {pmid38545232, year = {2024}, author = {Lv, Y and Sarker, MNI}, title = {Integrative approaches to urban resilience: Evaluating the efficacy of resilience strategies in mitigating climate change vulnerabilities.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e28191}, pmid = {38545232}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The successful implementation of urban resilience strategies is of utmost importance in order to reduce susceptibility and bolster resilience in the face of climate change consequences. The current understanding of the efficacy of different resilience strategies in mitigating vulnerability and bolstering urban resilience is lacking, despite its significance. This study assesses the efficacy of resilience strategies in mitigating vulnerability and enhancing urban resilience. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of scholarly literature published in English following PRISMA criteria from January 2001 to July 2023. Finally, 116 articles met the inclusion criteria and were selected for in-depth analysis. Results indicate that while resilience strategies have the potential to reduce susceptibility and enhance urban resilience, the effectiveness of resilience techniques is contingent upon various factors, such as the type of hazard, urban setting, and implementation process. The study also highlights the significance of stakeholder involvement, community participation, and adaptive management as essential components for effectively implementing resilience measures. Integrating physical, social, and institutional components in resilience practices demonstrated notable effectiveness. This study also reveals that improving the physical resilience of urban areas and strengthening their social and institutional capabilities to address and learn from disruptive events and pressures can decrease their vulnerability. The research also exposes those strategies focusing solely on mitigating a single issue, such as physical infrastructure, while neglecting social or institutional elements, which prove less effective. A comprehensive approach, incorporating institutional, social, and physical measures, should be designed to achieve maximal efficacy in mitigating vulnerability and strengthening urban resilience.}, }
@article {pmid38545171, year = {2024}, author = {Egidio, E and De Luca, DA and Lasagna, M}, title = {How groundwater temperature is affected by climate change: A systematic review.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e27762}, pmid = {38545171}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Groundwater (GW) is sensitive to climate change (CC), and the effects have become progressively more evident in recent years. Many studies have examined the effects of CC on GW quantity. Still, there is growing interest in assessing the qualitative impacts of CC, especially on GW temperature (GWT), and the consequences of these impacts. This study aimed to systematically review recently published papers on CC and GWT, determine the impacts of CC on GWT, and highlight the possible consequences. The Scopus and Web of Science databases were consulted, from which 144 papers were obtained. After an initial screening for duplicate papers, a second screening based on the titles and abstracts, and following an analysis of topic applicability to this subject after examining the full text, 44 studies were included in this review. The analysed scientific literature, published in 29 different journals, covered all five continents from 1995 to 2023. This review indicated that the subject of GWT variations due to CC is of global interest and has attracted significant attention, especially over the past two decades, with many studies adopting a multidisciplinary approach. A general increase in GWT was noted as a primary effect of CC (especially in urban areas); furthermore, the implications of this temperature increase for contaminants and GW-dependent ecosystems were analysed, and various applications for this increase (e.g. geothermal) were evaluated. This review highlights that GWT is vulnerable to CC and that the consequences can be serious and worthy of further investigation.}, }
@article {pmid38545021, year = {2024}, author = {Meo, SA and Meo, AS}, title = {Climate Change and Diabetes Mellitus - Emerging Global Public Health Crisis: Observational Analysis.}, journal = {Pakistan journal of medical sciences}, volume = {40}, number = {4}, pages = {559-562}, pmid = {38545021}, issn = {1682-024X}, abstract = {Climate change is the most pressing challenge of the 21st century. It's immediate impacts on the environment are extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves, storms, rains, floods, sealevel rise, the disruption of crops, agricultural systems, water, vector-borne diseases, and ecosystems. The weather-related disasters disturbed the natural biological environment and dislocated millions of people from their homes. The extreme weather conditions caused the deaths of about two million people and $4.3 trillion in economic loss over the past half a century, and 90% of deaths were reported from developing countries. It has also been predicted that between 2030 and 2050, climate change is presumed to cause about 250,000 additional deaths per annum. The rapid rise in temperatures, frequencies of heat waves, wildfires, storms, and other weather extremes conditions could affect human health in many ways. The one-degree Celsius rise in outdoor temperature causes over 100,000 new cases of diabetes mellitus per annum. Climate change compromised body metabolism, vasodilation, sweating, insulin resistance and cause Type-2 diabetes mellitus and gestational diabetes Mellitus.}, }
@article {pmid38543332, year = {2024}, author = {Cáceres, GA and Lisbôa, TV and Elschner, C and Spickenheuer, A}, title = {Experimental Global Warming Potential-Weighted Specific Stiffness Comparison among Different Natural and Synthetic Fibers in a Composite Component Manufactured by Tailored Fiber Placement.}, journal = {Polymers}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/polym16060726}, pmid = {38543332}, issn = {2073-4360}, abstract = {This work aims to evaluate experimentally different fibers and resins in a topologically optimized composite component. The selected ones are made of carbon, glass, basalt, flax, hemp, and jute fibers. Tailored Fiber Placement (TFP) was used to manufacture the textile preforms, which were infused with two different epoxy resins: a partly biogenic and a fully petro-based one. The main objective is to evaluate and compare the absolute and specific mechanical performance of synthetic and natural fibers within a component framework as a base for improving assessments of sustainable endless-fiber reinforced composite material. Furthermore, manufacturing aspects regarding the different fibers are also considered in this work. In assessing the efficiency of the fiber-matrix systems, both the specific stiffness and the specific stiffness relative to carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2eq.) as measures for the global warming potential (GWP) are taken into account for comparison. The primary findings indicate that basalt and flax fibers outperform carbon fibers notably in terms of specific stiffness weighted by CO2eq.. Additionally, the selection of epoxy resin significantly influences the assessment of sustainable fiber-plastic composites.}, }
@article {pmid38541313, year = {2024}, author = {Piscitelli, P and Miani, A}, title = {Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: Navigating the Intersection through Innovation and Interdisciplinary Approaches.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph21030314}, pmid = {38541313}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {The era of climate change has introduced unprecedented challenges for global public health, especially visible through the lens of infectious diseases [...].}, }
@article {pmid38541279, year = {2024}, author = {Latkin, CA and Dayton, L and Winiker, A and Countess, K and Hendrickson, ZM}, title = {'They Talk about the Weather, but No One Does Anything about It': A Mixed-Methods Study of Everyday Climate Change Conversations.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph21030279}, pmid = {38541279}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {1/CX/CSRD VA/United States ; }, abstract = {Understanding everyday conversations about climate change may provide insights into framing the issue to promote climate change action. As part of a longitudinal online study in the US launched in June 2021, 805 respondents were asked if they had discussed climate change with a friend or family member in the prior month; if not, why not, and if yes, they were asked to delineate the conversation topic. Concurrent mixed methods were used to analyze the data. The majority (62.6%) of respondents reported not having a conversation about climate change in the prior month. Among those who indicated that they had discussed climate change, five themes were identified from the conversation topics, with many having reported discussing the impact of climate change on weather patterns. Very few discussed actions to address climate change, and most of these discussions focused on individual-level behaviors rather than collective actions. Among participants who had not recently discussed climate change, the most prevalent theme was that it was not a priority or an issue they cared about. Results suggest that conversations may not lead to collective actions and that policymakers and environmental organizations should provide guidance on effectively channeling climate change concerns into action.}, }
@article {pmid38540956, year = {2024}, author = {Chou, J and Jin, H and Xu, Y and Zhao, W and Li, Y and Hao, Y}, title = {Impacts and Risk Assessments of Climate Change for the Yields of the Major Grain Crops in China, Japan, and Korea.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/foods13060966}, pmid = {38540956}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {42261144687//Projects of International Cooperation and Exchanges NSFC/ ; 2022-GS-01//State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology/ ; 42075167//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a high risk to grain yields. Maize, rice, and wheat are the three major grain crops in China, Japan, and Korea. Assessing the impacts and risks of climate on the yields of these grain cops is crucial. An economy-climate model (C-D-C model) was established to assess the impacts of climate factors on the grain yields in different crop areas. The peaks over threshold model based on the generalized Pareto distribution was used to calculate the value at risk and the expected shortfall, which can evaluate the yield risk of different crops. The impact ratio of climate change was employed to estimate the impacts of climate change under different climate scenarios. The main conclusions can be summarized as follows: the impacts of climate factors on grain yields and the risk vary widely across the different regions and crops. Compared to 1991-2020, climate change from 2021 to 2050 exerts positive impacts on rice and wheat, while the negative impacts on maize in the crop areas are significantly affected by climate factors. The impact ratios of climate change are larger in the SSP1-2.6 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios than under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. These findings are useful for targeting grain yields in smaller study areas.}, }
@article {pmid38540672, year = {2024}, author = {Luna-Cerón, E and Pherez-Farah, A and Krishnan-Sivadoss, I and Guerrero-Beltrán, CE}, title = {Molecular Challenges and Opportunities in Climate Change-Induced Kidney Diseases.}, journal = {Biomolecules}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biom14030251}, pmid = {38540672}, issn = {2218-273X}, abstract = {As temperatures continue to modify due to weather changes, more regions are being exposed to extreme heat and cold. Physiological distress due to low and high temperatures can affect the heart, blood vessels, liver, and especially, the kidneys. Dehydration causes impaired cell function and heat itself triggers cellular stress. The decline in circulating plasma volume by sweat, which stresses the renal and cardiovascular systems, has been related to some molecules that are crucial players in preventing or provoking cellular damage. Hypovolemia and blood redistribution to cutaneous blood vessels reduce perfusion to the kidney triggering the activation of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system. In this review, we expose a deeper understanding of the modulation of molecules that interact with other proteins in humans to provide significant findings in the context of extreme heat and cold environments and renal damage reversal. We focus on the molecular changes exerted by temperature and dehydration in the renal system as both parameters are heavily implicated by weather change (e.g., vasopressin-induced fructose uptake, fructogenesis, and hypertension). We also discuss the compensatory mechanisms activated under extreme temperatures that can exert further kidney injury. To finalize, we place special emphasis on the renal mechanisms of protection against temperature extremes, focusing on two important protein groups: heat shock proteins and sirtuins.}, }
@article {pmid38540558, year = {2024}, author = {Orrù, L and Taccini, F and Mannarini, S}, title = {Worry about the Future in the Climate Change Emergency: A Mediation Analysis of the Role of Eco-Anxiety and Emotion Regulation.}, journal = {Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/bs14030255}, pmid = {38540558}, issn = {2076-328X}, abstract = {The climate change emergency is one of the most important challenges of our time, and its impact on mental health has been evident for years. It is very important for clinicians to delve deeper into these manifestations. There are a wide variety of constructs, symptoms, and scales to measure the impact of climate change on mental health. Eco-anxiety is one of the constructs that has specifically emerged, in association with worry, about the future. In mental health studies, it is important to explore the relationship between eco-anxiety and emotion regulation and how much this relationship leads to worry about the future in order to be able to offer clinical intervention recommendations. Indeed, the hypothesis of this study is that it is possible to develop worries about the future when symptoms of eco-anxiety and a poor ability to regulate emotions are present. Particularly, emotion dysregulation could increase eco-anxiety symptoms and generate worries about one's own future. For this reason, we have chosen to explore the relationships between these three constructs with the use of a mediation analysis. For this research, 351 participants were recruited in Italy. The proposed mediation model highlighted the findings that emotion dysregulation was positively related with eco-anxiety and that eco-anxiety predicts worry about the future. An association between emotion dysregulation and worry about the future was present. Eco-anxiety appeared to be an important mediator between emotional dysregulation and worry about the future. Emotion regulation could play a pivotal role in addressing concerns about the future. These findings could pave the way for exploring new research avenues and potential clinical interventions.}, }
@article {pmid38539982, year = {2024}, author = {Mohamed-Brahmi, A and Ameur, M and Mekki, I and Tenza-Peral, A and Nasraoui, M and Yagoubi, Y and Smeti, S and Ben Saïd, S and Atti, N and Lobón, S and Mahouachi, M}, title = {Analysis of Management Practices and Breeders' Perceptions of Climate Change's Impact to Enhance the Resilience of Sheep Production Systems: A Case Study in the Tunisian Semi-Arid Zone.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani14060885}, pmid = {38539982}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Global climate change inflicts unambiguous risks on agricultural systems and food security. Small ruminants are known for their ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions. This paper aims to characterize sheep production systems in a vulnerable agricultural zone and the breeders' perceptions of climate change to apprehend challenges that they are confronting, and formulate resilience actions. The data analysis is based on 94 semi-structured surveys of sheep farmers carried out in the Tunisian semi-arid region. The PCA analysis results revealed three main sheep production systems. The agro-pastoral rain-fed system (AGPRF) is dominant (55%), with large farms and common pastures integrating cereals and fodder. The agro-pastoral irrigated system (AGPI: 20%) is characterized by small-area and forage irrigation (1.8 ha) and a smaller number of ewes but a greater use of animal feed supplementation. The agro-sylvo-pastoral system (AGSP: 25%) is a system where grazing is based on common lands and using tree sub-products, while the agricultural area is exclusively used to cultivate cereal crops. Sheep breeders' climate perceptions are summarized as unpredictable climate events, a decrease in precipitation, and an increase in temperature. Resilience actions principally consist of reducing flocks' numbers, using alternative local feed, fodder, and water resources, and building more shelters and planting more trees in the grazing areas. Nevertheless, cost-effectiveness should be considered in such vulnerable zones to insure the sheep production systems' sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid38539654, year = {2024}, author = {Cipriani, E and Frumento, S and Grassini, S and Gemignani, A and Menicucci, D}, title = {Do Individual Differences in Perception Affect Awareness of Climate Change?.}, journal = {Brain sciences}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/brainsci14030266}, pmid = {38539654}, issn = {2076-3425}, abstract = {One significant obstacle to gaining a widespread awareness of the ongoing climate change is the nature of its manifestations in relation to our perception: climate change effects are gradual, distributed, and sometimes seemingly contradictory. These features result in a lag in collective climate action and sometimes foster climate skepticism and climate denial. While the literature on climate change perception and belief has thoroughly explored its sociocultural and sociopolitical aspects, research on the potential contribution of psychophysiological factors remains scarce. In this perspective paper, we outline evidence and arguments for the involvement of psychophysiological systems such as thermoception, hygroreception, and interoception in modulating climate change awareness. We discuss psychophysiological mechanisms of climate change awareness in animals and humans, as well as possible sources of individual variance in climate change perception. We conclude by suggesting novel research questions which would be worthwhile to pursue in future studies.}, }
@article {pmid38538899, year = {2024}, author = {Gibney, E}, title = {Climate change has slowed Earth's rotation - and could affect how we keep time.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38538899}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38538890, year = {2024}, author = {Miller-Struttmann, NE}, title = {Climate change predicted to exacerbate declines in bee populations.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38538890}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38538793, year = {2024}, author = {Agnew, DC}, title = {A global timekeeping problem postponed by global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38538793}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {The historical association of time with the rotation of Earth has meant that Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) closely follows this rotation[1]. Because the rotation rate is not constant, UTC contains discontinuities (leap seconds), which complicates its use in computer networks[2]. Since 1972, all UTC discontinuities have required that a leap second be added[3]. Here we show that increased melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica, measured by satellite gravity[4,5], has decreased the angular velocity of Earth more rapidly than before. Removing this effect from the observed angular velocity shows that since 1972, the angular velocity of the liquid core of Earth has been decreasing at a constant rate that has steadily increased the angular velocity of the rest of the Earth. Extrapolating the trends for the core and other relevant phenomena to predict future Earth orientation shows that UTC as now defined will require a negative discontinuity by 2029. This will pose an unprecedented problem for computer network timing and may require changes in UTC to be made earlier than is planned. If polar ice melting had not recently accelerated, this problem would occur 3 years earlier: global warming is already affecting global timekeeping.}, }
@article {pmid38538790, year = {2024}, author = {Kazenel, MR and Wright, KW and Griswold, T and Whitney, KD and Rudgers, JA}, title = {Heat and desiccation tolerances predict bee abundance under climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38538790}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Climate change could pose an urgent threat to pollinators, with critical ecological and economic consequences. However, for most insect pollinator species, we lack the long-term data and mechanistic evidence that are necessary to identify climate-driven declines and predict future trends. Here we document 16 years of abundance patterns for a hyper-diverse bee assemblage[1] in a warming and drying region[2], link bee declines with experimentally determined heat and desiccation tolerances, and use climate sensitivity models to project bee communities into the future. Aridity strongly predicted bee abundance for 71% of 665 bee populations (species × ecosystem combinations). Bee taxa that best tolerated heat and desiccation increased the most over time. Models forecasted declines for 46% of species and predicted more homogeneous communities dominated by drought-tolerant taxa, even while total bee abundance may remain unchanged. Such community reordering could reduce pollination services, because diverse bee assemblages typically maximize pollination for plant communities[3]. Larger-bodied bees also dominated under intermediate to high aridity, identifying body size as a valuable trait for understanding how climate-driven shifts in bee communities influence pollination[4]. We provide evidence that climate change directly threatens bee diversity, indicating that bee conservation efforts should account for the stress of aridity on bee physiology.}, }
@article {pmid38537397, year = {2024}, author = {Or, Z and Seppänen, AV}, title = {The role of the health sector in tackling climate change: A narrative review.}, journal = {Health policy (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {143}, number = {}, pages = {105053}, doi = {10.1016/j.healthpol.2024.105053}, pmid = {38537397}, issn = {1872-6054}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the largest threats to population health and has already affected the ecosystem, food production, and health and wellbeing of populations all over the world. The healthcare sector is responsible for around 5 % of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide and can play a key role in reducing global warming. This narrative review summarized the information on the role of healthcare systems in addressing climate change and strategies for reducing its negative impact to illustrate different types of actions that can support the ecological transformation of healthcare systems to help reaching sustainable development goals. A wide range of green interventions are shown to be effective to reduce the carbon footprint of healthcare and can have a meaningful impact if implemented systematically. However, these would not suffice unless accompanied by systemic mitigation strategies altering how healthcare is provided and consumed. Sustainable healthcare strategies such as reducing waste and low-value care will have direct benefits for the environment while improving economic and health outcomes. The healthcare sector has a unique opportunity to leverage its position and resources to provide a comprehensive strategy for fighting climate change and improving population health and the environment on which it depends.}, }
@article {pmid38536797, year = {2024}, author = {Filazzola, A and Johnson, MTJ and Barrett, K and Hayes, S and Shrestha, N and Timms, L and MacIvor, JS}, title = {The great urban shift: Climate change is predicted to drive mass species turnover in cities.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {e0299217}, pmid = {38536797}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Human experiences with nature are important for our culture, economy, and health. Anthropogenically-driven climate change is causing widespread shifts in biodiversity and resident urban wildlife are no exception. We modelled over 2,000 animal species to predict how climate change will impact terrestrial wildlife within 60 Canadian and American cities. We found evidence of an impending great urban shift where thousands of species will disappear across the selected cities, being replaced by new species, or not replaced at all. Effects were largely species-specific, with the most negatively impacted taxa being amphibians, canines, and loons. These predicted shifts were consistent across scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, but our results show that the severity of change will be defined by our action or inaction to mitigate climate change. An impending massive shift in urban wildlife will impact the cultural experiences of human residents, the delivery of ecosystem services, and our relationship with nature.}, }
@article {pmid38536774, year = {2024}, author = {Bernigaud, N and Bondeau, A and Guiot, J and Bertoncello, F and Ouriachi, MJ and Bouby, L and Leveau, P and Bernard, L and Isoardi, D}, title = {The impact of climate change on the agriculture and the economy of Southern Gaul: New perspectives of agent-based modelling.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {e0298895}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0298895}, pmid = {38536774}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {What impact did the Roman Climate Optimum (RCO) and the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) have on the rise and fall of the Roman Empire? Our article presents an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach developed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the profitability of vineyards, olive groves, and grain farms in Southern Gaul, which were the main source of wealth in the roman period. This ABM simulates an agroecosystem model which processes potential agricultural yield values from paleoclimatic data. The model calculates the revenues made by agricultural exploitations from the sale of crops whose annual volumes vary according to climate and market prices. The potential profits made by the different agricultural exploitations are calculated by deducting from the income the operating and transportation costs. We conclude that the warm and wet climate of the Roman period may have had an extremely beneficial effect on the profitability of wine and olive farms between the 2nd century BCE and the 3rd century CE, but a more modest effect on grain production. Subsequently, there is a significant decrease in the potential profitability of farms during the Late Antique Little Ice Age (4th-7th century CE). Comparing the results of our model with archaeological data enables us to discuss the impact of these climatic fluctuations on the agricultural and economic growth, and then their subsequent recession in Southern Gaul from the beginning to the end of antiquity.}, }
@article {pmid38536504, year = {2024}, author = {Urvois, T and Auger-Rozenberg, MA and Roques, A and Kerdelhué, C and Rossi, JP}, title = {Intraspecific niche models for the invasive ambrosia beetle Xylosandrus crassiusculus suggest contrasted responses to climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38536504}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {Xylosandrus crassiusculus is an invasive ambrosia beetle comprising two differentiated genetic lineages, named cluster 1 and cluster 2. These lineages invaded different parts of the world at different periods of time. We tested whether they exhibited different climatic niches using Schoener's D and Hellinger's I indices and modeled their current potential geographical ranges using the Maxent algorithm. The resulting models were projected according to future and recent past climate datasets for Europe and the Mediterranean region. The future projections were performed for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 using 3 SSPs and 5 GCMs. The genetic lineages exhibited different climate niches. Parts of Europe, the Americas, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Oceania were evaluated as suitable for cluster 1. Parts of Europe, South America, Central and South Africa, Asia, and Oceania were considered as suitable for cluster 2. Models projection under future climate scenarios indicated a decrease in climate suitability in Southern Europe and an increase in North Eastern Europe in 2071-2100. Most of Southern and Western Europe was evaluated as already suitable for both clusters in the early twentieth century. Our results show that large climatically suitable regions still remain uncolonized and that climate change will affect the geographical distribution of climatically suitable areas. Climate conditions in Europe were favorable in the twentieth century, suggesting that the recent colonization of Europe is rather due to an increase in propagule pressure via international trade than to recent environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid38535390, year = {2024}, author = {Wei, J and Niu, M and Zhang, H and Cai, B and Ji, W}, title = {Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Species Pseudococcus viburni (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) under Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects15030195}, pmid = {38535390}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {The potential distribution range and management strategies for P. viburni are poorly understood. Based on historical distribution data and environmental factors, the present study predicted the potentially suitable areas for P. viburni spread under different climate change scenarios using MaxEnt (maximum entropy). The results showed that precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) were the most important environmental factors determining the distribution of P. viburni. Under the current climate conditions, its potential suitable areas are southern China, the whole of Japan, North America (especially the eastern part of the United States), the southwestern part of South America, the Mediterranean coast and most of Europe, the central part of Africa, i.e., the south of the Sahara Desert, and most of the southern coast of Australia. The total area of habitats suitable for this insect pest is predicted to be increased in the future. In order to prevent P. viburni transmission and spread, there is a need to strengthen the monitoring and quarantine measures against this pest at the Southern ports.}, }
@article {pmid38534467, year = {2024}, author = {Abedin, I and Mukherjee, T and Kim, AR and Kim, HW and Kang, HE and Kundu, S}, title = {Distribution Model Reveals Rapid Decline in Habitat Extent for Endangered Hispid Hare: Implications for Wildlife Management and Conservation Planning in Future Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology13030198}, pmid = {38534467}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {This research was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (No.NRF-2021R1A2C1014556)//National Research Foundation of Korea/ ; }, abstract = {The hispid hare, Caprolagus hispidus, belonging to the family Leporidae is a small grassland mammal found in the southern foothills of the Himalayas, in India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Despite having an endangered status according to the IUCN Red List, it lacks studies on its distribution and is threatened by habitat loss and land cover changes. Thus, the present study attempted to assess the habitat suitability using the species distribution model approach for the first time and projected its future in response to climate change, habitat, and urbanization factors. The results revealed that out of the total geographical extent of 188,316 km[2], only 11,374 km[2] (6.03%) were identified as suitable habitat for this species. The results also revealed that habitat significantly declined across its range (>60%) under certain climate change scenarios. Moreover, in the present climate scenario protected areas such as Shuklaphanta National Park (0.837) in Nepal exhibited the highest mean extent of habitat whereas, in India, Dibru-Saikhowa National Park (0.631) is found to be the most suitable habitat. Notably, two protected areas in Uttarakhand, India, specifically Corbett National Park (0.530) and Sonanandi Wildlife Sanctuary (0.423), have also demonstrated suitable habitats for C. hispidus. Given that protected areas showing a future rise in habitat suitability might also be regarded as potential sites for species translocation, this study underscores the importance of implementing proactive conservation strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on this species. It is essential to prioritize habitat restoration, focused protection measures, and further species-level ecological exploration to address these challenges effectively. Furthermore, fostering transboundary collaboration and coordinated conservation actions between nations is crucial to safeguarding the long-term survival of the species throughout its distribution range.}, }
@article {pmid38534056, year = {2024}, author = {Li, X and Peachey, B and Maeda, N}, title = {Global Warming and Anthropogenic Emissions of Water Vapor.}, journal = {Langmuir : the ACS journal of surfaces and colloids}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.langmuir.4c00390}, pmid = {38534056}, issn = {1520-5827}, abstract = {The two major components of greenhouse gases, CO2 and water, are indispensable for sustaining life on Earth. Water vapor is the most significant greenhouse gas that has provided the earth with an "atmospheric blanket" and prevented the surface of the earth from freezing. However, contemporary climate models largely consider the influence of water vapor as a factor within positive feedback loops, while the possibility of direct anthropogenic emissions of water vapor as primary drivers of global warming remains underexplored. In particular, a common assumption has been that the global atmospheric water vapor will increase by about 6 to 7% in response to each 1 °C of warming caused by the nonaqueous greenhouse gases in accordance with the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, and this increased moisture content will lead to an increased greenhouse gas effect. However, the Clausius-Clapeyron equation is based on two-phase equilibrium, and there is no a priori physical basis that it can be applied to the earth's climate for which the water vapor does not always coexist with a condensed phase. Here, we utilized global specific humidity data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set to examine whether the Clausius-Clapeyron equation can form a basis for such positive feedback commonly assumed in the contemporary climate models. Our results show (1) qualitiatively, the linear nature of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation demonstrates a significant level of consistency when averaged over expansive regions like specific latitudes around the globe, (2) this consistency does not extend to individual locations where a plot of (ln Pv) vs (1/T) becomes nonlinear, indicating substantial undersaturation that varies with time, (3) quantitatively, the discrepancies between the observed and the expected values of the slopes are wide-ranging, and (4) the absolute amount of water vapor increased substantially above the population centers and the agricultural areas in the Northern Hemisphere between 1960 and 2020. Human activities appear to have substantial impacts on the local water vapor content in the atmosphere. Once we assume that anthropogenic emissions of water vapor are the source of local water vapor content in the atmosphere, it can, together with the air circulation patterns (Hadler, Ferrel and polar), provide an explanation for the observations that Arctic ice has been melting at a much more accelerated rate than Antarctic ice.}, }
@article {pmid38533554, year = {2024}, author = {Nezlek, JB and Cypryańska, M}, title = {Relationships between climate change distress, generalized anxiety, and climate-related symptoms of mental disorders.}, journal = {Anxiety, stress, and coping}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-13}, doi = {10.1080/10615806.2024.2332628}, pmid = {38533554}, issn = {1477-2205}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: We examined the possibility that reactions to climate change take two forms: distress, which may be adaptive, and symptoms of mental disorders, which may not be.<br><br>DESIGN AND METHOD: In a national sample of Polish adults (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;1133), we measured climate change distress (experiencing unpleasant emotions and feelings due to climate change), climate-related symptoms of mental disorders (e.g., problems sleeping and problems working and planning), generalized anxiety, and depression.<br><br>RESULTS: Zero-inflated Poisson regression analyses of the occurrence of climate-related symptoms of mental disorders found two latent classes: People who experienced symptoms of the disorder and those who did not. For all eight symptoms, climate change distress predicted membership in the latent class of people who experienced a symptom, whereas how often people in the non-zero latent class experienced each symptom was positively related to generalized anxiety but was not related to distress or depression.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that reactions to climate change take two forms. Some people do not experience climate change-related symptoms of mental disorders, and some do. People who experience symptoms have higher levels of climate change distress, and the frequency with which they experience these symptoms is determined by their dispositional, generalized anxiety.}, }
@article {pmid38533451, year = {2024}, author = {Garedew, M and John, J and Alam, A and Buchfuhrer, A and Dasilva, L and Hashem, F and Vestal, K and Jiggetts, C and Pace, G and Kissane, C and Luthria, N and Bravo, T and Baker, J and Constantine, G and Sheehan, SW}, title = {Air Scholars program: A framework for empowering future generations to address climate change.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {108776}, pmid = {38533451}, issn = {2589-0042}, }
@article {pmid38531884, year = {2024}, author = {Symons, J and Dixon, TA and Dalziell, J and Curach, N and Paulsen, IT and Wiskich, A and Pretorius, IS}, title = {Engineering biology and climate change mitigation: Policy considerations.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2669}, pmid = {38531884}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Engineering biology (EngBio) is a dynamic field that uses gene editing, synthesis, assembly, and engineering to design new or modified biological systems. EngBio applications could make a significant contribution to achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, policy support will be needed if EngBio is to fulfil its climate mitigation potential. What form should such policies take, and what EngBio applications should they target? This paper reviews EngBio's potential climate contributions to assist policymakers shape regulations and target resources and, in so doing, to facilitate democratic deliberation on desirable futures.}, }
@article {pmid38531235, year = {2024}, author = {van den Bosch, M and Bartolomeu, ML and Williams, S and Basnou, C and Hamilton, I and Nieuwenhuijsen, M and Pino, J and Tonne, C}, title = {A scoping review of human health co-benefits of forest-based climate change mitigation in Europe.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {186}, number = {}, pages = {108593}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2024.108593}, pmid = {38531235}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Climate change is a pressing global challenge with profound implications for human health. Forest-based climate change mitigation strategies, such as afforestation, reforestation, and sustainable forest management, offer promising solutions to mitigate climate change and simultaneously yield substantial co-benefits for human health. The objective of this scoping review was to examine research trends related to the interdisciplinary nexus between forests as carbon sinks and human health co-benefits. We developed a conceptual framework model, supporting the inclusion of exposure pathways, such as recreational opportunities or aesthetic experiences, in the co-benefit context. We used a scoping review methodology to identify the proportion of European research on forest-based mitigation strategies that acknowledge the interconnection between mitigation strategies and human impacts. We also aimed to assess whether synergies and trade-offs between forest-based carbon sink capacity and human co-benefits has been analysed and quantified. From the initial 4,062 records retrieved, 349 reports analysed European forest management principles and factors related to climate change mitigation capacity. Of those, 97 studies acknowledged human co-benefits and 13 studies quantified the impacts on exposure pathways or health co-benefits and were included for full review. Our analysis demonstrates that there is potential for synergies related to optimising carbon sink capacity together with human co-benefits, but there is currently a lack of holistic research approaches assessing these interrelationships. We suggest enhanced interdisciplinary efforts, using for example multideterminant modelling approaches, to advance evidence and understanding of the forest and health nexus in the context of climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid38531141, year = {2024}, author = {You, Y and Jiang, W and Yi, L and Zhang, G and Peng, Z and Chang, S and Hou, F}, title = {Seeding alpine grasses in low altitude region increases global warming potential during early seedling growth.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {356}, number = {}, pages = {120679}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120679}, pmid = {38531141}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Introduction of alpine grasses to low altitude regions has long been a crucial strategy for enriching germplasm diversity, cultivating and acclimating high-quality species, enhancing ecosystem resilience and adaptability, as well as facilitating ecosystem restoration. However, there is an urgent need to investigate the impacts of planting Gramineae seeds on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly during the critical stage of early plant growth. In this study, four species of grass seeds (Stipa breviflora, Poa pratensis, Achnatherum splendens, Elymus nutans) were collected from 19 high-altitude regions surrounding the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and sown at low-altitude. Measurements of GHG emissions at early seedling growth in the mesocosm experiment using static chamber method showed a strong increase in the cumulative emissions of CO2 (5.71%-9.19%) and N2O (11.36%-13.64%) (p < 0.05), as well as an elevated CH4 uptake (2.75%-5.50%) in sites where the four grass species were introduced, compared to bare soil. Consequently, there was a substantial rise in global warming potential (13.87%-16.33%) (p < 0.05) at grass-introduced sites. Redundancy analysis showed that seed traits, plant biomass, and seedling emergence percentage were the main driving biotic factors of three GHGs fluxes. Our study unveils the potential risk of escalating GHG emissions induced by introducing high altitude grasses to low altitude bare soil, elucidating the mechanism through linking seed traits with seedling establishment and environmental feedback. Furthermore, this offers a new perspective for assessing the impact of grass introduction on ecological environment of introduced site.}, }
@article {pmid38530243, year = {2024}, author = {Kivimäki, M and Batty, GD and Pentti, J and Suomi, J and Nyberg, ST and Merikanto, J and Nordling, K and Ervasti, J and Suominen, SB and Partanen, AI and Stenholm, S and Käyhkö, J and Vahtera, J}, title = {Erratum: "Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050".}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {132}, number = {3}, pages = {39001}, doi = {10.1289/EHP14645}, pmid = {38530243}, issn = {1552-9924}, }
@article {pmid38528313, year = {2024}, author = {Pineda, M and Barón, M and Pérez-Bueno, ML}, title = {Diverse projected climate change scenarios affect the physiology of broccoli plants to different extents.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {176}, number = {2}, pages = {e14269}, doi = {10.1111/ppl.14269}, pmid = {38528313}, issn = {1399-3054}, support = {PID2022-139733OB-I00//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; RTI2018-094652-B-I00//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; Proyecto Intramural 202340E012//Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&#xed;ficas/ ; PID2022-139733OB-I00//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; RTI2018-094652-B-I00//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; PID2022-139733OB-I00//European Regional Development Fund/ ; RTI2018-094652-B-I00//European Regional Development Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change caused by global warming involves crucial plant growth factors such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, ambient temperature or water availability. These stressors usually co-occur, causing intricate alterations in plant physiology and development. This work focuses on how elevated atmospheric CO2 levels, together with the concomitant high temperature, would affect the physiology of a relevant crop, such as broccoli. Particular attention has been paid to those defence mechanisms that contribute to plant fitness under abiotic stress. Results show that both photosynthesis and leaf transpiration were reduced in plants grown under climate change environments compared to those grown under current climate conditions. Furthermore, an induction of carbohydrate catabolism pointed to a redistribution from primary to secondary metabolism. This result could be related to a reinforcement of cell walls, as well as to an increase in the pool of antioxidants in the leaves. Broccoli plants, a C3 crop, grown under an intermediate condition showed activation of those adaptive mechanisms, which would contribute to coping with abiotic stress, as confirmed by reduced levels of lipid peroxidation relative to current climate conditions. On the contrary, the most severe climate change scenario exceeded the adaptive capacity of broccoli plants, as shown by the inhibition of growth and reduced vigour of plants. In conclusion, only a moderate increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature would not have a negative impact on broccoli crop yields.}, }
@article {pmid38528225, year = {2024}, author = {Ali, S and Yan, Q and Dilanchiev, A and Irfan, M and Balabeyova, N}, title = {Retraction Note: Economic development, social media awareness, and technological innovation in biogas sector under climate change in the post-COVID-19 pandemic conditions.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-024-33073-8}, pmid = {38528225}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid38528012, year = {2024}, author = {Kreider, MR and Higuera, PE and Parks, SA and Rice, WL and White, N and Larson, AJ}, title = {Fire suppression makes wildfires more severe and accentuates impacts of climate change and fuel accumulation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2412}, pmid = {38528012}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {1745048//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Fire suppression is the primary management response to wildfires in many areas globally. By removing less-extreme wildfires, this approach ensures that remaining wildfires burn under more extreme conditions. Here, we term this the "suppression bias" and use a simulation model to highlight how this bias fundamentally impacts wildfire activity, independent of fuel accumulation and climate change. We illustrate how attempting to suppress all wildfires necessarily means that fires will burn with more severe and less diverse ecological impacts, with burned area increasing at faster rates than expected from fuel accumulation or climate change. Over a human lifespan, the modeled impacts of the suppression bias exceed those from fuel accumulation or climate change alone, suggesting that suppression may exert a significant and underappreciated influence on patterns of fire globally. Managing wildfires to safely burn under low and moderate conditions is thus a critical tool to address the growing wildfire crisis.}, }
@article {pmid38527536, year = {2024}, author = {Pan, T and Cui, C and Qin, B and Ding, K and Zhou, J}, title = {Climate change intensifies algal biomass resurgence in eutrophic Lake Taihu, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171934}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171934}, pmid = {38527536}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change can significantly alter phytoplankton growth and proliferation, which would counteract restoration efforts to control algal blooms. However, the knowledge is limited about the quantitative evaluation of the causal effect of algal biomass resurgence in large shallow lakes where there is no significant improvement after long term lake restoration. Here, a bucket process-based phytoplankton dynamic model is developed to quantify the contribution of climate change and nutrient concentration changes to phytoplankton biomass resurgence after 2014 in hypereutrophic Lake Taihu, China. Compared to 2008-2014, the mean water temperature (WT) and the mean phosphate (PO3-4) are higher, the mean photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the mean total suspended solids (TSS), and the mean dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) are lower, during 2015-2020. Their contribution to algal biomass resurgence in 2015-2020 is WT (+58.7 %), PAR (-2.6 %), TSS (+23.2 %), DIN (-22.1 %) and PO3-4(+42.7 %), respectively. Climate change (WT, PAR, and TSS), which contributed +64.9 % to the phytoplankton biomass resurgence, underscores the urgent need to continuously take more effective measures to reduce nutrient emissions to offset the effects of climate change in Lake Taihu and in other eutrophic lakes.}, }
@article {pmid38527432, year = {2024}, author = {Bowman, WS and Schmidt, RJ and Sanghar, GK and Thompson Iii, GR and Ji, H and Zeki, AA and Haczku, A}, title = {"Air That Once Was Breath" Part 2: Wildfire Smoke and Airway Disease - "Climate Change, Allergy and Immunology" Special IAAI Article Collection: Collegium Internationale Allergologicum Update 2023.}, journal = {International archives of allergy and immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, doi = {10.1159/000536576}, pmid = {38527432}, issn = {1423-0097}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Population growth and climate change have led to more frequent and larger wildfires, increasing the exposure of individuals to wildfire smoke. Notably, asthma exacerbations and allergic airway sensitization are prominent outcomes of such exposure.<br><br>SUMMARY: Key research questions relate to determining the precise impact on individuals with asthma, including the severity, duration, and long-term consequences of exacerbations. Identifying specific risk factors contributing to vulnerability, such as age, genetics, comorbidities, or environmental factors, is crucial. Additionally, reliable biomarkers for predicting severe exacerbations need exploration. Understanding the long-term health effects of repeated wildfire smoke exposures in individuals with asthma and addressing healthcare disparities are important research areas.<br><br>KEY MESSAGES: This review discusses the need for comprehensive research efforts to better grasp wildfire smoke-induced respiratory health, particularly in vulnerable populations such as farmworkers, firefighters, pregnant women, children, the elderly, and marginalized communities. Effective mitigation would require addressing the current limitations we face by supporting research aimed at a better understanding of wildfire smoke-induced airway disease.}, }
@article {pmid38527215, year = {2024}, author = {Rockman, M}, title = {Capacity of the U.S. federal system for cultural heritage to meet challenges of climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {15}, pages = {e2317158121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2317158121}, pmid = {38527215}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {The U.S. federal government is unbalanced in its capacity to recognize, manage, and engage cultural heritage as part of its response to climate change. Legislation from the 1906 Antiquities Act to Executive Order (EO) 13990 signed in 2021 has set an overarching approach in which heritage is understood to be primarily tangible places and things that should be conserved, foremost through monument and park boundaries and significance designations. Such conservation, however, does not protect heritage from impacts of climate change and how to manage these components of heritage is nearly invisible in recent climate-focused publications of the two agencies assigned by legislation to serve as leads for cultural heritage in the U.S. government. Yet further, the long-standing tangible approach to heritage does not incorporate emerging understandings of its intangible components and the diverse connections of all forms of heritage to place, meaning, identity, and global change goals of sustainability and equity. In contrast, analysis of 27 federal agency climate adaptation plans prepared in response to 2021 EO 14008 shows that multiple agencies not assigned lead roles for heritage recognize a range of responsibilities that include heritage as part of climate adaptation, mitigation, equity, and coordination with Indigenous communities. This paper explores U.S. heritage legislative history, the definition it helped create for heritage, more recent understandings of heritage, and relationships of these to climate change and how these are represented in climate work and plans across U.S. federal agencies. On these bases, recommendations are provided for research and policy steps.}, }
@article {pmid38526088, year = {2024}, author = {Lennon, JT and Abramoff, RZ and Allison, SD and Burckhardt, RM and DeAngelis, KM and Dunne, JP and Frey, SD and Friedlingstein, P and Hawkes, CV and Hungate, BA and Khurana, S and Kivlin, SN and Levine, NM and Manzoni, S and Martiny, AC and Martiny, JBH and Nguyen, NK and Rawat, M and Talmy, D and Todd-Brown, K and Vogt, M and Wieder, WR and Zakem, EJ}, title = {Priorities, opportunities, and challenges for integrating microorganisms into Earth system models for climate change prediction.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e0045524}, doi = {10.1128/mbio.00455-24}, pmid = {38526088}, issn = {2150-7511}, abstract = {Climate change jeopardizes human health, global biodiversity, and sustainability of the biosphere. To make reliable predictions about climate change, scientists use Earth system models (ESMs) that integrate physical, chemical, and biological processes occurring on land, the oceans, and the atmosphere. Although critical for catalyzing coupled biogeochemical processes, microorganisms have traditionally been left out of ESMs. Here, we generate a "top 10" list of priorities, opportunities, and challenges for the explicit integration of microorganisms into ESMs. We discuss the need for coarse-graining microbial information into functionally relevant categories, as well as the capacity for microorganisms to rapidly evolve in response to climate-change drivers. Microbiologists are uniquely positioned to collect novel and valuable information necessary for next-generation ESMs, but this requires data harmonization and transdisciplinary collaboration to effectively guide adaptation strategies and mitigation policy.}, }
@article {pmid38523192, year = {2024}, author = {Balmaki, B and Rostami, MA and Allen, JM and Dyer, LA}, title = {Effects of climate change on Lepidoptera pollen loads and their pollination services in space and time.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38523192}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {2114942//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; 2114793//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; 2133818//EN/ ; }, abstract = {Shifts in flowering time among plant communities as a result of climate change, including extreme weather events, are a growing concern. These plant phenological changes may affect the quantity and quality of food sources for specialized insect pollinators. Plant-pollinator interactions are threatened by habitat alterations and biodiversity loss, and changes in these interactions may lead to declines in flower visitors and pollination services. Most prior research has focused on short-term plant-pollinator interactions, which do not accurately capture changes in pollination services. Here, we characterized long-term plant-pollinator interactions and identified potential risks to specialized butterfly species due to habitat loss, fragmented landscapes, and changes in plant assemblages. We used 21 years of historical data from museum specimens to track the potential effects of direct and indirect changes in precipitation, temperature, monsoons, and wildfires on plant-pollinator mutualism in the Great Basin and Sierra Nevada. We found decreased pollen richness associated with butterflies within sites, as well as an increase in pollen grain abundance of drought-tolerant plants, particularly in the past 10 years. Moreover, increased global temperatures and the intensity and frequency of precipitation and wildfires were negatively correlated with pollen diversity. Our findings have important implications for understanding plant-pollinator interactions and the pollination services affected by global warming.}, }
@article {pmid38522529, year = {2024}, author = {Lasa, AV and Fernández-González, AJ and Villadas, PJ and Mercado-Blanco, J and Pérez-Luque, AJ and Fernández-López, M}, title = {Mediterranean pine forest decline: A matter of root-associated microbiota and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171858}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171858}, pmid = {38522529}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Forest ecosystems worldwide currently face worrying episodes of forest decline, which have boosted weakening and mortality of the trees. In the Mediterranean region, especially in the southeast Iberian Peninsula, Pinus sylvestris forests are severely affected by this phenomenon, and it has been commonly attributed to drought events. Remarkably, the role of root microbiota on pine decline has been overlooked and remains unclear. We therefore used metabarcoding to identify the belowground microbial communities of decline-affected and unaffected pine trees. Taxonomic composition of bacterial and fungal rhizosphere communities, and fungal populations dwelling in root endosphere showed different profiles depending on the health status of the trees. The root endosphere of asymptomatic trees was as strongly dominated by 'Candidatus Phytoplasma pini' as the root of decline-affected pines, accounting for >99 % of the total bacterial sequences in some samples. Notwithstanding, the titer of this phytopathogen was four-fold higher in symptomatic trees than in symptomless ones. Furthermore, the microbiota inhabiting the root endosphere of decline-affected trees assembled into a less complex and more modularized network. Thus, the observed changes in the microbial communities could be a cause or a consequence of forest decline phenomenon. Moreover, 'Ca. Phytoplasma pini' is positively correlated to Pinus sylvestris decline events, either as the primary cause of pine decline or as an opportunistic pathogen exacerbating the process once the tree has been weaken by other factors.}, }
@article {pmid38522009, year = {2024}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Trueck, S and Linnenluecke, MK and Bambrick, H and Capon, AG and Hanigan, IC and Arriagada, NB and Cross, TJ and Friel, S and Green, D and Heenan, M and Jay, O and Kennard, H and Malik, A and McMichael, C and Stevenson, M and Vardoulakis, S and Dang, TN and Garvey, G and Lovett, R and Matthews, V and Phung, D and Woodward, AJ and Romanello, MB and Zhang, Y}, title = {The 2023 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: sustainability needed in Australia's health care sector.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.52245}, pmid = {38522009}, issn = {1326-5377}, abstract = {The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. It examines five broad domains: health hazards, exposures and impacts; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the sixth report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Our results highlight the health and economic costs of inaction on health and climate change. A series of major flood events across the four eastern states of Australia in 2022 was the main contributor to insured losses from climate-related catastrophes of $7.168 billion - the highest amount on record. The floods also directly caused 23 deaths and resulted in the displacement of tens of thousands of people. High red meat and processed meat consumption and insufficient consumption of fruit and vegetables accounted for about half of the 87 166 diet-related deaths in Australia in 2021. Correction of this imbalance would both save lives and reduce the heavy carbon footprint associated with meat production. We find signs of progress on health and climate change. Importantly, the Australian Government released Australia's first National Health and Climate Strategy, and the Government of Western Australia is preparing a Health Sector Adaptation Plan. We also find increasing action on, and engagement with, health and climate change at a community level, with the number of electric vehicle sales almost doubling in 2022 compared with 2021, and with a 65% increase in coverage of health and climate change in the media in 2022 compared with 2021. Overall, the urgency of substantial enhancements in Australia's mitigation and adaptation responses to the enormous health and climate change challenge cannot be overstated. Australia's energy system, and its health care sector, currently emit an unreasonable and unjust proportion of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As the Lancet Countdown enters its second and most critical phase in the leadup to 2030, the depth and breadth of our assessment of health and climate change will be augmented to increasingly examine Australia in its regional context, and to better measure and track key issues in Australia such as mental health and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid38521843, year = {2024}, author = {Sunkur, R and Kantamaneni, K and Bokhoree, C and Rathnayake, U and Fernando, M}, title = {Mangrove mapping and monitoring using remote sensing techniques towards climate change resilience.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {6949}, pmid = {38521843}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Mangroves are amongst the richest ecosystems in the world providing valuable goods and services to millions of people while enhancing the resilience of coastal communities against climate change induced hazards, especially island nations. However, these mangroves are severely affected by many anthropogenic activities. Therefore, understanding the spatial variability of mangroves in island nations is highly essential in the events of ongoing climatic change. Thus, this study assessed the use of remote sensing techniques and GIS to map and monitor mangrove cover change at selected sites, namely Le Morne and Ferney, on the tropical island of Mauritius. Freely available 2013 SPOT-5 and 2023 Sentinel 2A images were retrieved and processed using ArcGIS Pro tools and SNAP; mangroves were mapped based on Google Earth Pro historical imagery and ground truthing at the respective sites. Following the application of selected vegetation indices, GLCM and PCA analysis, mosaicked images were classified using the Random Trees algorithm. Kappa values of all the classified images were in the 90 s; Le Morne showed a significant increase in mangrove cover over the decadal scale with main class change from mudflat to mangroves. This study demonstrates how geo-spatial tools are crucial for monitoring mangroves as they provide spatially explicit and time sensitive information. Decision makers, researchers, and relevant stakeholders can utilize this data to bolster tailored mitigation and adaptation strategies at specific sites, thereby enhancing resilience to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38521379, year = {2024}, author = {Leeuwis, RHJ and Hall, JR and Zanuzzo, FS and Smith, N and Clow, KA and Kumar, S and Vasquez, I and Goetz, FW and Johnson, SC and Rise, ML and Santander, J and Gamperl, AK}, title = {Climate change can impair bacterial pathogen defences in sablefish via hypoxia-mediated effects on adaptive immunity.}, journal = {Developmental and comparative immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {105161}, doi = {10.1016/j.dci.2024.105161}, pmid = {38521379}, issn = {1879-0089}, abstract = {Low-oxygen levels (hypoxia) in aquatic habitats are becoming more common because of global warming and eutrophication. However, the effects on the health/disease status of fishes, the world's largest group of vertebrates, are unclear. Therefore, we assessed how long-term hypoxia affected the immune function of sablefish, an ecologically and economically important North Pacific species, including the response to a formalin-killed Aeromonas salmonicida bacterin. Sablefish were held at normoxia or hypoxia (100% or 40% air saturated seawater, respectively) for 6-16 weeks, while we measured a diverse array of immunological traits. Given that the sablefish is a non-model organism, this involved the development of a species-specific methodological toolbox comprised of qPCR primers for 16 key immune genes, assays for blood antibacterial defences, the assessment of blood immunoglobulin (IgM) levels with ELISA, and flow cytometry and confocal microscopy techniques. We show that innate immune parameters were typically elevated in response to the bacterial antigens, but were not substantially affected by hypoxia. In contrast, hypoxia completely prevented the ∼1.5-fold increase in blood IgM level that was observed under normoxic conditions following bacterin exposure, implying a serious impairment of adaptive immunity. Since the sablefish is naturally hypoxia tolerant, our results demonstrate that climate change-related deoxygenation may be a serious threat to the immune competency of fishes.}, }
@article {pmid38521263, year = {2024}, author = {Li, KJ and Liu, XF and Yang, L and Shen, SK}, title = {Alpine Rhododendron population contractions lead to spatial distribution mismatch with their pollinators under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171832}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171832}, pmid = {38521263}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The effect of global climate change on plant-pollinator interaction is not limited to changes in phenology and richness within communities but also includes the spatial mismatch caused by the inconsistency of geographical distribution changes. Subsequently, the pollinator interaction network may be remodeled or even disrupted. In this study, we simulated the suitable habitat niche of 15 Rhododendron species and their eight pollinator species as well as their overlapping versus geographical mismatch under the current and three future climate change scenarios in 2090s, using MaxEnt. Results showed that the suitable habitat of all Rhododendron species would decrease in 2090s. In particular, 10, 8, and 13 Rhododendron-pollinator assemblages would have a reduced spatial match region under the climate change scenarios, mainly due to the contraction of the suitable habitat of Rhododendron species. The results provide novel insights into the response of plant-pollinator interactions to global warming, useful to prioritize conservation actions of alpine plant ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38520558, year = {2024}, author = {Vásquez-Aguilar, AA and Hernández-Rodríguez, D and Martínez-Mota, R}, title = {Predicting future climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra): an endangered arboreal primate.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {4}, pages = {392}, pmid = {38520558}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the main factors affecting biodiversity worldwide at an alarming rate. In addition to increases in global extreme weather events, melting of polar ice caps, and subsequent sea level rise, climate change might shift the geographic distribution of species. In recent years, interest in understanding the effects of climate change on species distribution has increased, including species which depend greatly on forest cover for survival, such as strictly arboreal primates. Here, we generate a series of species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate future projections under different climate change scenarios on the distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra), an endemic endangered primate species. Using SDMs, we assessed current and future projections of their potential distribution for three Social Economic Paths (SSPs) for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. Specifically, we found that precipitation seasonality (BIO15, 30.8%), isothermality (BIO3, 25.4%), and mean diurnal range (BIO2, 19.7.%) are the main factors affecting A. pigra distribution. The future climate change models suggested a decrease in the potential distribution of A. pigra by projected scenarios (from - 1.23 to - 12.66%). The highly suitable area was the most affected above all in the more pessimist scenario most likely related to habitat fragmentation. Our study provides new insights into the potential future distribution and suitable habitats of Alouatta pigra. Such information could be used by local communities, governments, and non-governmental organizations for conservation planning of this primate species.}, }
@article {pmid38519952, year = {2024}, author = {Smith, CL and Fisher, G and Dharmayani, PNA and Wijekulasuriya, S and Ellis, LA and Spanos, S and Dammery, G and Zurynski, Y and Braithwaite, J}, title = {Progress with the Learning Health System 2.0: a rapid review of Learning Health Systems' responses to pandemics and climate change.}, journal = {BMC medicine}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {131}, pmid = {38519952}, issn = {1741-7015}, support = {9100002//National Health and Medical Research Council/ ; 1176620//National Health and Medical Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Pandemics and climate change each challenge health systems through increasing numbers and new types of patients. To adapt to these challenges, leading health systems have embraced a Learning Health System (LHS) approach, aiming to increase the efficiency with which data is translated into actionable knowledge. This rapid review sought to determine how these health systems have used LHS frameworks to both address the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change, and to prepare for future disturbances, and thus transition towards the LHS2.0.<br><br>METHODS: Three databases (Embase, Scopus, and PubMed) were searched for peer-reviewed literature published in English in the five years to March 2023. Publications were included if they described a real-world LHS's response to one or more of the following: the COVID-19 pandemic, future pandemics, current climate events, future climate change events. Data were extracted and thematically analyzed using the five dimensions of the Institute of Medicine/Zurynski-Braithwaite's LHS framework: Science and Informatics, Patient-Clinician Partnerships, Continuous Learning Culture, Incentives, and Structure and Governance.<br><br>RESULTS: The search yielded 182 unique publications, four of which reported on LHSs and climate change. Backward citation tracking yielded 13 additional pandemic-related publications. None of the climate change-related papers met the inclusion criteria. Thirty-two publications were included after full-text review. Most were case studies (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;12, 38%), narrative descriptions (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;9, 28%) or empirical studies (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;9, 28%). Science and Informatics (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;31, 97%), Continuous Learning Culture (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;26, 81%), Structure and Governance (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;23, 72%) were the most frequently discussed LHS dimensions. Incentives (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;21, 66%) and Patient-Clinician Partnerships (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;18, 56%) received less attention. Twenty-nine papers (91%) discussed benefits or opportunities created by pandemics to furthering the development of an LHS, compared to 22 papers (69%) that discussed challenges.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: An LHS 2.0 approach appears well-suited to responding to the rapidly changing and uncertain conditions of a pandemic, and, by extension, to preparing health systems for the effects of climate change. LHSs that embrace a continuous learning culture can inform patient care, public policy, and public messaging, and those that wisely use IT systems for decision-making can more readily enact surveillance systems for future pandemics and climate change-related events.<br><br>TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO pre-registration: CRD42023408896.}, }
@article {pmid38519453, year = {2024}, author = {Couée, I}, title = {The importance of worldwide linguistic and cultural diversity for climate change resilience.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {e14410}, doi = {10.1111/ele.14410}, pmid = {38519453}, issn = {1461-0248}, abstract = {Local minority languages and dialects, through the local knowledge and expertise associated with them, can play major roles in analysing climate change and biodiversity loss, in facilitating community awareness of environmental crises and in setting up locally-adapted resilience and sustainability strategies. While the situation and contribution of Indigenous and Tribal Peoples are of emblematic importance, the issue of the relationships between cultural and linguistic diversity and environmental awareness and protection does not solely concern peripheral highly-specialized communities in specific ecosystems of the Global South, but constitutes a worldwide challenge, throughout all of the countries, whatever their geographical location, their economical development, or their political status. Environmental emergency and climate change resilience should therefore raise international awareness on the need to promote the survival and development of minority languages and dialects and to take into account their creativity and expertise in relation to the dynamics of their local environments.}, }
@article {pmid38518909, year = {2024}, author = {Shaaban, M and Nunez-Delgado, A}, title = {Soil adsorption potential: Harnessing Earth's living skin for mitigating climate change and greenhouse gas dynamics.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118738}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118738}, pmid = {38518909}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Soil adsorption, which could be seen as a crucial ecosystem service, plays a pivotal role in regulating environmental quality and climate dynamics. However, despite its significance, it is often undervalued within the realms of research and policy frameworks. This article delves into the multifaceted aspects of soil adsorption, incorporating insights from chemistry and material science, ecological perspectives, and recent advancements in the field. In exploring soil components and their adsorption capacities, the review highlights how organic and inorganic constituents orchestrate soil's aptitude for pollutant mitigation and nutrient retention/release. Innovative materials and technologies such as biochar are evaluated for their efficacy in enhancing these natural processes, drawing a link with the sustainability of agricultural systems. The symbiosis between soil microbial diversity and adsorption mechanisms is examined, emphasizing the potential for leveraging this interaction to bolster soil health and resilience. The impact of soil adsorption on global nutrient cycles and water quality underscores the environmental implications, portraying it as a sentinel in the face of escalating anthropogenic activities. The complex interplay between soil adsorption mechanisms and climate change is dissected, identifying research gaps and advocating for future investigations to elucidate the dynamics underpinning this relation. Policy and socioeconomic aspects form a crucial counterpart to the scientific discourse, with the review assessing how effective governance, incentivization, and community engagement are essential for translating soil adsorption's functionality into tangible climate change mitigation and sustainable land-use strategies. Integrating these diverse but interconnected strata, the article presents a comprehensive overview that not only charts the current state of soil adsorption research but also casts a vision for its future trajectory. It calls for an integrated approach combining scientific inquiry, technological innovation, and proactive policy to leverage soil adsorption's full potential to address environmental challenges and catalyze a transition towards a more sustainable and resilient future.}, }
@article {pmid38518791, year = {2024}, author = {Seidel, D and Wurster, S and Jenks, JD and Sati, H and Gangneux, JP and Egger, M and Alastruey-Izquierdo, A and Ford, NP and Chowdhary, A and Sprute, R and Cornely, O and Thompson, GR and Hoenigl, M and Kontoyiannis, DP}, title = {Impact of climate change and natural disasters on fungal infections.}, journal = {The Lancet. Microbe}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2666-5247(24)00039-9}, pmid = {38518791}, issn = {2666-5247}, abstract = {The effects of climate change and natural disasters on fungal pathogens and the risks for fungal diseases remain incompletely understood. In this literature review, we examined how fungi are adapting to an increase in the Earth's temperature and are becoming more thermotolerant, which is enhancing fungal fitness and virulence. Climate change is creating conditions conducive to the emergence of new fungal pathogens and is priming fungi to adapt to previously inhospitable environments, such as polluted habitats and urban areas, leading to the geographical spread of some fungi to traditionally non-endemic areas. Climate change is also contributing to increases in the frequency and severity of natural disasters, which can trigger outbreaks of fungal diseases and increase the spread of fungal pathogens. The populations mostly affected are the socially vulnerable. More awareness, research, funding, and policies on the part of key stakeholders are needed to mitigate the effects of climate change and disaster-related fungal diseases.}, }
@article {pmid38518414, year = {2024}, author = {Wan, X and Lu, X and Zhu, L and Feng, J}, title = {Relative prevalence of top-down versus bottom-up control in planktonic ecosystem under eutrophication and climate change: A comparative study of typical bay and estuary.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {255}, number = {}, pages = {121487}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2024.121487}, pmid = {38518414}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {Eutrophication and climate change may affect the top-down versus bottom-up controls in aquatic ecosystems. However, the relative prevalence of the two controls in planktonic ecosystems along the eutrophication and climate gradients has rarely been addressed. Here, using the field surveys of 17 years in a typical bay and estuary, we test two opposite patterns of trophic control dominance and their response to regional temporal eutrophication and climate fluctuations. It was found that trophic control of planktonic ecosystems fluctuated between the dominance of top-down and bottom-up controls on time scales in both the bay and estuary studied. The relative prevalence of these two controls in both ecosystems was significantly driven directly by regional dissolved inorganic nitrogen but, for the estuary, also by the nonlinear effects of regional sea surface temperature. In terms of indirect pathways, community relationships (synchrony and grazing pressure) in the bay are driven by both regional dissolved inorganic nitrogen - soluble reactive phosphorus ratio and sea surface temperature, but this drive did not continue to be transmitted to the trophic control. Conversely, trophic control in estuary was directly related to grazing pressure and indirectly related to synchrony. These findings support the view that eutrophication and climate drive the relative prevalence of top-down versus bottom-up controls at ecosystem and temporal scales in planktonic ecosystems, which has important implications for predicting the potential impacts of anthropogenic and environmental perturbations on the structure and function of marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38517316, year = {2024}, author = {Kang, H and Jung, HT}, title = {Gas Sensors for Climate Change.}, journal = {ACS sensors}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {1031-1032}, doi = {10.1021/acssensors.4c00429}, pmid = {38517316}, issn = {2379-3694}, }
@article {pmid38517193, year = {2024}, author = {Duke, J and Holt, EA}, title = {Place-based climate change: lowering students' psychological distance through a classroom activity.}, journal = {Journal of microbiology &amp; biology education}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e0016823}, doi = {10.1128/jmbe.00168-23}, pmid = {38517193}, issn = {1935-7877}, abstract = {Psychological distance (PD) can be a barrier to how students perceive climate change impacts and severity. Localizing climate change using place-based approaches is one way instructors can structure their curricula to help combat students' PD, especially from a spatial and social viewpoint. We created a novel classroom intervention that incorporated elements of place-based education and the Teaching for Transformative Experiences in Science model that was designed to lower undergraduate biology students' spatial and social distance of climate change. Our research questions sought to determine whether students' PD changed following our intervention and whether variables beyond our intervention might have contributed to changes we identified. To measure the efficacy of our intervention, we administered a survey that contained several instruments to measure students' recognition and psychological distance of climate change pre- and post-intervention. We found that students' psychological distance to climate change decreased after participating in our classroom intervention. Additionally, course level was the only outside variable we identified as a predictor of students' post-activity scores. Participation in our activity lowered our students' spatial and social psychological distance, which could have impacts beyond the classroom as these students become the next generation of scientists and voters.}, }
@article {pmid38512897, year = {2024}, author = {Elmberg, J and Palmheden, L and Edelstam, C and Hagman, M and Kärvemo, S}, title = {Climate change-induced shifts in survival and size of the worlds' northernmost oviparous snake: A 68-year study.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {e0300363}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0300363}, pmid = {38512897}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Because of their dependence on ambient temperature ectothermic animals can serve as sentinels of conservation problems related to global warming. Reptiles in temperate areas are especially well suited to study such effects, as their annual and daily activity patterns directly depend on ambient temperature. This study is based on annual data spanning 68 years from a fringe population of Grass Snakes (Natrix natrix), which is the world's northernmost oviparous (egg-laying) reptile, and known to be constrained by temperature for reproduction, morphology, and behavior. Mark-recapture analyses showed that survival probability was generally higher in males than in females, and that it increased with body length. Body condition (scaled mass index) and body length increased over time, indicative of a longer annual activity period. Monthly survival was generally higher during winter (i.e., hibernation) than over the summer season. Summer survival increased over time, whilst winter survival decreased, especially during recent decades. Winter survival was lower when annual maximum snow depth was less than 15 cm, implying a negative effect of milder winters with less insulating snow cover. Our study demonstrates long-term shifts in body length, body condition and seasonal survival associated with a warming climate. Although the seasonal changes in survival ran in opposite directions and though changes were small in absolute terms, the trends did not cancel out, but total annual survival decreased. We conclude that effects of a warming climate can be diverse and pose a threat for thermophilic species in temperate regions, and that future studies should consider survival change by season, preferably in a long-term approach.}, }
@article {pmid38512813, year = {2024}, author = {Berger, M}, title = {Amidst spreading infectious diseases and climate change, US FDA should renew its focus on neglected tropical diseases.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {e0012005}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0012005}, pmid = {38512813}, issn = {1935-2735}, }
@article {pmid38515480, year = {2023}, author = {Umo, I and Pangiau, M and Kukiti, J and Ona, A and Tepoka, S and James, K and Ikasa, R}, title = {Estimating the carbon emissions from a resource-limited surgical suite in Papua New Guinea: The climate change potential.}, journal = {Dialogues in health}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {100108}, doi = {10.1016/j.dialog.2023.100108}, pmid = {38515480}, issn = {2772-6533}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The upscale of surgical service delivery in low to middle income countries will increase health sector greenhouse gas emissions globally. Understanding surgical greenhouse gas emissions from surgical suite activities can direct decarbonization strategies and achieve local, and global climate change objectives.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: A prospective surgical suite carbon foot print study was conducted at the Alotau Provincial Hospital from the 28[th] March 2022 to the 28[th] of May 2022.<br><br>RESULTS: The total carbon emission for the surgical suite in APH over the study period was 2,665.8 kgCO2e. The average carbon emission per surgical case within the boundary of the surgical suite was 8.4 kgCO2e. Scope one emissions (anaesthetic gases) accounted for 44.7% (1171.3 kgCO2e) of all carbon emissions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: If no action is taken, carbon emissions in the western pacific region will continue to increase from surgical suites. Therefore, proactive efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must be prioritized.}, }
@article {pmid38512633, year = {2024}, author = {Jansen, MAK and Andrady, AL and Bornman, JF and Aucamp, PJ and Bais, AF and Banaszak, AT and Barnes, PW and Bernhard, GH and Bruckman, LS and Busquets, R and Häder, DP and Hanson, ML and Heikkilä, AM and Hylander, S and Lucas, RM and Mackenzie, R and Madronich, S and Neale, PJ and Neale, RE and Olsen, CM and Ossola, R and Pandey, KK and Petropavlovskikh, I and Revell, LE and Robinson, SA and Robson, TM and Rose, KC and Solomon, KR and Andersen, MPS and Sulzberger, B and Wallington, TJ and Wang, QW and Wängberg, S&#xc5; and White, CC and Young, AR and Zepp, RG and Zhu, L}, title = {Plastics in the environment in the context of UV radiation, climate change and the Montreal Protocol: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2023.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38512633}, issn = {1474-9092}, abstract = {This Assessment Update by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) considers the interactive effects of solar UV radiation, global warming, and other weathering factors on plastics. The Assessment illustrates the significance of solar UV radiation in decreasing the durability of plastic materials, degradation of plastic debris, formation of micro- and nanoplastic particles and accompanying leaching of potential toxic compounds. Micro- and nanoplastics have been found in all ecosystems, the atmosphere, and in humans. While the potential biological risks are not yet well-established, the widespread and increasing occurrence of plastic pollution is reason for continuing research and monitoring. Plastic debris persists after its intended life in soils, water bodies and the atmosphere as well as in living organisms. To counteract accumulation of plastics in the environment, the lifetime of novel plastics or plastic alternatives should better match the functional life of products, with eventual breakdown releasing harmless substances to the environment.}, }
@article {pmid38511700, year = {2024}, author = {Fauteux, N and Simon, B}, title = {Nurses Step Up to Address Climate Change and Health.}, journal = {The American journal of nursing}, volume = {124}, number = {4}, pages = {16-18}, doi = {10.1097/01.NAJ.0001010544.84445.78}, pmid = {38511700}, issn = {1538-7488}, abstract = {Opportunities exist to mitigate impacts.}, }
@article {pmid38511667, year = {2024}, author = {Don, A and Seidel, F and Leifeld, J and Kätterer, T and Martin, M and Pellerin, S and Emde, D and Seitz, D and Chenu, C}, title = {Reply letter to Munoz et al. 'on the importance of time in carbon sequestration in soils and climate change mitigation'-Keep carbon sequestration terminologies consistent and functional.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {e17230}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17230}, pmid = {38511667}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {862695//European Union Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (EJP Soil)/ ; }, }
@article {pmid38511643, year = {2024}, author = {Muñoz, E and Chanca, I and González-Sosa, M and Sarquis, A and Tangarife-Escobar, A and Sierra, CA}, title = {On the importance of time in carbon sequestration in soils and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {e17229}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17229}, pmid = {38511643}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {A clear definition of carbon sequestration in soils is necessary to quantify soil's role in climate change mitigation accurately. Don et al. (2023) proposed defining carbon sequestration as "[the] Process of transferring carbon from the atmosphere into the soil through plants or other organisms, which is retained as soil organic carbon resulting in a global carbon stock increase of the soil". In our view, this definition is incomplete because a comprehensive definition of carbon sequestration should explicitly include the time that carbon remains stored in an ecosystem, thus mitigating its contribution to the greenhouse effect.}, }
@article {pmid38511487, year = {2024}, author = {Broadbent, AAD and Newbold, LK and Pritchard, WJ and Michas, A and Goodall, T and Cordero, I and Giunta, A and Snell, HSK and Pepper, VVLH and Grant, HK and Soto, DX and Kaufmann, R and Schloter, M and Griffiths, RI and Bahn, M and Bardgett, RD}, title = {Climate change disrupts the seasonal coupling of plant and soil microbial nutrient cycling in an alpine ecosystem.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {e17245}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17245}, pmid = {38511487}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {BB/S010661/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The seasonal coupling of plant and soil microbial nutrient demands is crucial for efficient ecosystem nutrient cycling and plant production, especially in strongly seasonal alpine ecosystems. Yet, how these seasonal nutrient cycling processes are modified by climate change and what the consequences are for nutrient loss and retention in alpine ecosystems remain unclear. Here, we explored how two pervasive climate change factors, reduced snow cover and shrub expansion, interactively modify the seasonal coupling of plant and soil microbial nitrogen (N) cycling in alpine grasslands, which are warming at double the rate of the global average. We found that the combination of reduced snow cover and shrub expansion disrupted the seasonal coupling of plant and soil N-cycling, with pronounced effects in spring (shortly after snow melt) and autumn (at the onset of plant senescence). In combination, both climate change factors decreased plant organic N-uptake by 70% and 82%, soil microbial biomass N by 19% and 38% and increased soil denitrifier abundances by 253% and 136% in spring and autumn, respectively. Shrub expansion also individually modified the seasonality of soil microbial community composition and stoichiometry towards more N-limited conditions and slower nutrient cycling in spring and autumn. In winter, snow removal markedly reduced the fungal:bacterial biomass ratio, soil N pools and shifted bacterial community composition. Taken together, our findings suggest that interactions between climate change factors can disrupt the temporal coupling of plant and soil microbial N-cycling processes in alpine grasslands. This could diminish the capacity of these globally widespread alpine ecosystems to retain N and support plant productivity under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38511480, year = {2024}, author = {Caughman, AM and Gaines, SD and Bradley, D}, title = {Climate change reduces long-term population benefits from no-take marine protected areas through selective pressures on species movement.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {e17240}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17240}, pmid = {38511480}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2139319//National Science Foundation/ ; CNS-1725797//National Science Foundation/ ; DMR 2308708//National Science Foundation/ ; //Arnhold Climate Collaborative/ ; }, abstract = {Marine protected areas (MPAs) are important conservation tools that confer ecosystem benefits by removing fishing within their borders to allow stocks to rebuild. Fishing mortality outside a traditionally fixed MPA can exert selective pressure for low movement alleles, resulting in enhanced protection. While evolving to move less may be useful for conservation presently, it could be detrimental in the face of climate change for species that need to move to track their thermal optimum. Here, we build a spatially explicit simulation model to assess the impact of movement evolution in and around static MPAs resulting from both fishing mortality and temperature-dependent natural mortality on conservation benefits across five climate scenarios: (i) linear mean temperature shift, (ii) El Niño/La Niña conditions, (iii) heat waves, (iv) heatwaves with a mean temperature shift, and (v) no climate change. While movement evolution allows populations within MPAs to survive longer, we find that over time, climate change degrades the benefits by selecting for higher movement genotypes. Resulting population declines within MPAs are faster than expected based on climate mortality alone, even within the largest MPAs. Our findings suggest that while static MPAs may conserve species for a time, other strategies, such as dynamic MPA networks or assisted migration, may also be required to effectively incorporate climate change into conservation planning.}, }
@article {pmid38511443, year = {2024}, author = {Li, JZ and Xin, ZH and Xie, X and Xue, B and Ren, WX}, title = {[Spatio-temporal variations of vegetation cover in semi-arid regions and its response to climate change: A case study of Xilin Gol, Inner Mongolia, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {80-86}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202401.020}, pmid = {38511443}, issn = {1001-9332}, abstract = {The quantitative analysis of spatio-temporal variations of vegetation cover and its correlation with climate are of great significance for understanding of ecological environment, ecological civilization construction, and sustainable development in semi-arid areas. We investigated the spatio-temporal variations of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its response to climate change during 2000-2020 in Xilin Gol, Inner Mongolia, by using trend analysis, regression analysis and partial correlation analysis based on the data of MODIS-NDVI, tempe-rature, precipitation, digital elevation model. The results showed that vegetation cover in Xilin Gol had been increased from 2000 to 2020, which generally included three phases, i.e., stable fluctuation, rapid growth, and steady growth. The mean NDVI showed a zonal increasing distribution from southwest to northeast, and had a strong correlation with elevation and population density in Xilin Gol region. The high values of NDVI were mainly in the east, with a significant increasing trend, and the low values were in the southwest, with a local degradation. The sensitivity of vegetation cover to climate change showed spatial and temporal variations. The spatial variation of vegetation was more sensitive to temperature and the interannual variation was sensitive to annual precipitation. In summary, vegetation cover improved overall in Xilin Gol, but there was degradation in some areas. We should formulate differentiated and precise vegetation restoration and ecological environmental protection policies.}, }
@article {pmid38510442, year = {2024}, author = {Mousa, WK and Abu-Izneid, T and Salah-Tantawy, A}, title = {High-throughput sequencing reveals the structure and metabolic resilience of desert microbiome confronting climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1294173}, pmid = {38510442}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Desert ecosystems harbor a unique microbial diversity that is crucial for ecological stability and biogeochemical cycles. An in-depth understanding of the biodiversity, compositions, and functions of these microbial communities is imperative to navigate global changes and confront potential threats and opportunities applicable to agricultural ecosystems amid climate change.<br><br>METHODS: This study explores microbial communities in the rhizosphere and endosphere of desert plants native to the Arabian Peninsula using next-generation sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene (V3-V4 hypervariable region).<br><br>RESULTS: Our results reveal that each microbial community has a diverse and unique microbial composition. Based on alpha and beta diversity indices, the rhizosphere microbiome is significantly diverse and richer in microbial taxa compared to the endosphere. The data reveals a shift towards fast-growing microbes with active metabolism, involvement in nutrient cycling, nitrogen fixation, and defense pathways. Our data reveals the presence of habitat-specific microbial communities in the desert, highlighting their remarkable resilience and adaptability to extreme environmental conditions. Notably, we observed the existence of radiation-resistant microbes such as Deinococcus radiotolerans, Kocuria sp., and Rubrobacter radiotolerans which can tolerate high levels of ionizing radiation. Additionally, examples of microbes exhibiting tolerance to challenging conditions include Nocardioides halotolerans, thriving in high-salinity environments, and hyperthermophilic microbes such as Quasibacillus thermotolerans. Moreover, functional analysis reveals enrichment in chaperon biosynthesis pathways associated with correct protein folding under heat stress conditions.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Our research sheds light on the unique diversity of desert microbes and underscores their potential applications to increase the resilience of agriculture ecosystems, offering a promising strategy to fortify crops against the challenges posed by climate change, ultimately supporting sustainable food production for our ever-expanding global population.}, }
@article {pmid38509127, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, Y and Msangi, S and Edmonds, J and Waldhoff, S}, title = {Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {6699}, pmid = {38509127}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {89233218CNA000001//Department of Energy, Office of Science/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on sea ice thickness is opening access to offshore Arctic resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial-temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction scenarios. We find that under SSP5, a "fossil-fueled development" scenario, the effects of sea-ice loss are larger for Arctic offshore oil production than gas. Under SSP5, future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8-2.6 EJ/year to oil and gas markets but does not have large impacts on global oil and gas markets. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.}, }
@article {pmid38507404, year = {2024}, author = {Brubacher, LJ and Peach, L and Chen, TT and Longboat, S and Dodd, W and Elliott, SJ and Patterson, K and Neufeld, H}, title = {Climate change, biodiversity loss, and Indigenous Peoples' health and wellbeing: A systematic umbrella review.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {e0002995}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pgph.0002995}, pmid = {38507404}, issn = {2767-3375}, abstract = {Indigenous Peoples worldwide are experiencing a cascade of impacts on their health and wellbeing as a result of climate change and biodiversity loss. Existing literature at the interface of climate change, biodiversity loss, and Indigenous health tells us that Indigenous Peoples are among those most disproportionately and acutely affected by these impacts. Yet, a gap exists with respect to comprehensively and critically synthesizing the impacts reported across this literature and identifying Indigenous-led responses. Guided by an Indigenous advisory group, we employed a systematic umbrella review methodology, following PRISMA guidelines, to characterize the global secondary literature (PROSPERO registration #: CRD42023417060). In so doing, we identified the proximal, intermediate, distal, and gendered impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss on Indigenous health and wellbeing as well as Indigenous-led responses. Five databases were searched for published reviews, along with a grey literature search that focused on underrepresented geographic regions in the academic literature. Two independent reviewers conducted two-stage screening, data extraction, and quality assessment of retrieved records. Basic descriptive statistics were calculated. Qualitative data were analyzed thematically, using a constant comparative approach. A total of 38 review articles met the eligibility criteria and 37 grey literature records were retrieved and included in the review. Reviews were published between 2010-2023 and geographically clustered in the Circumpolar North. Intersecting proximal, intermediate, and distal impacts were characterized as place-based and specific, and linked to colonialism as an antecedent to and driver of these impacts. Gendered impacts were underexplored within reviews. Reviewed literature underscored the value of engaging diverse knowledge systems; platforming localized, community-led adaptation to climate change and biodiversity loss, while addressing sociopolitical constraints to these efforts; and applying a broader conceptualization of health that aligns with Indigenous frameworks. Going forward, we must foreground equity- and rights-based considerations within integrated responses to climate and biodiversity crises.}, }
@article {pmid38507396, year = {2024}, author = {Lee, S and Goldberg, MH and Rosenthal, SA and Maibach, EW and Kotcher, JE and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Climate change belief systems across political groups in the United States.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {e0300048}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0300048}, pmid = {38507396}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Beliefs and attitudes form the core of public opinion about climate change. Network analysis can reveal the structural configuration of these beliefs and attitudes. In this research, we utilize a belief system framework to identify key psychological elements, track change in the density of these belief systems over time and across political groups, and analyze the structural heterogeneity of belief systems within and between political groups in the United States. Drawing on fifteen waves of nationally representative survey data from 2010 to 2021 (N = 16,742), our findings indicate that worry about climate change is the most central psychological element. Interestingly, we find that among politically unaffiliated individuals, the connections between psychological elements have strengthened over time, implying an increase in the consistency of belief systems within this group. Despite the political polarization in beliefs about climate change between Republicans and Democrats, our findings reveal that the ways these two groups organize and structure climate change beliefs systems are not markedly different compared to those of other groups. These findings provide theoretical and practical insights for climate change experts and communicators.}, }
@article {pmid38507340, year = {2024}, author = {Eikelboom, S and Esteve-Del-Valle, M and Nissim, M}, title = {Learning from climate change news: Is the world on the same page?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {e0297644}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0297644}, pmid = {38507340}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change challenges countries around the world, and news media are key to the public's awareness and perception of it. But how are news media approaching climate change across countries? With the problem of climate change and its solution being global, it is key to determine whether differences in climate change news reports exist and what they are across countries. This study employs supervised machine learning to uncover topical and terminological differences between newspaper articles on climate change. An original dataset of climate change articles is presented, originating from 7 newspapers and 3 countries across the world, and published in English during 26 Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). Three aspects are used to discriminate between articles, being (1) countries, (2) political orientations, and (3) COP meetings. Our results reveal differences with regard to how newspaper articles approach climate change globally. Specifically, climate change-related terminology of left-oriented newspapers is more prevalent compared to their right-oriented counterparts. Also, over the years, newspapers' climate change-related terminology has evolved to convey a greater sense of urgency.}, }
@article {pmid38504607, year = {2024}, author = {Oke, OE and Akosile, OA and Uyanga, VA and Oke, FO and Oni, AI and Tona, K and Onagbesan, OM}, title = {Climate change and broiler production.}, journal = {Veterinary medicine and science}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {e1416}, doi = {10.1002/vms3.1416}, pmid = {38504607}, issn = {2053-1095}, abstract = {Climate change has emerged as a significant occurrence that adversely affects broiler production, especially in tropical climates. Broiler chickens, bred for rapid growth and high meat production, rely heavily on optimal environmental conditions to achieve their genetic potential. However, climate change disrupts these conditions and poses numerous challenges for broiler production. One of the primary impacts of climate change on broiler production is the decreased ability of birds to attain their genetic potential for faster growth. Broilers are bred to possess specific genetic traits that enable them to grow rapidly and efficiently convert feed into meat. However, in tropical climates affected by climate change, the consequent rise in daily temperatures, increased humidity and altered precipitation patterns create an unfavourable environment for broilers. These conditions impede their growth and development, preventing them from reaching their maximum genetic influence, which is crucial for achieving desirable production outcomes. Furthermore, climate change exacerbates the existing challenges faced by broiler production systems. Higher feed costs impact the industry's economic viability and limit the availability of quality nutrition for the birds, further hampering their growth potential. In addition to feed scarcity, climate change also predisposes broiler chickens to thermal stress. This review collates existing information on climate change and its impact on broiler production, including nutrition, immune function, health and disease susceptibility. It also summarizes the challenges of broiler production under hot and humid climate conditions with different approaches to ameliorating the effects of harsh climatic conditions in poultry.}, }
@article {pmid38503966, year = {2024}, author = {Padrón-Monedero, A and Linares, C and Díaz, J and Noguer-Zambrano, I}, title = {Impact of drought on mental and behavioral disorders, contributions of research in a climate change context. A narrative review.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38503966}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {Mental and behavioral disorders are an important public health problem and constitute a priority for the WHO, whose recommendations include the surveillance of their risk factors. On the other hand, drought episodes have been increasing in frequency and severity in Europe since 1980. Therefore, to review the present knowledge about the impact of drought on mental and behavioral disorders, in the present climate change context, and to underline potential research gaps, could be of major interest. Thus, we performed a narrative review using online academic databases with the aim of identifying relevant literature about the impact of drought on mental and behavioral disorders. To the best of our knowledge, no study in Europe quantifies the potential association between drought and mental disorders. A limited number of studies have found significant associations between droughts (with different temporal ranges) and various measures of mental health. However, according to our review, only three of them quantified the association between drought and objective mental health outcomes, such as number of emergencies due to clinically diagnosed mental disorders or suicides. Additionally, few studies used specific indices as a measure of drought; and finally, as far as authors are aware, none of them has analyzed this relationship adjusting for various other potential environmental confounders. Moreover, the eventual association could vary between different geographical areas within the same country. Therefore, national and regional studies would be especially necessary. Thus, there is a need for specific national and regional studies, in Europe and globally, that assess the impact of specific indices of drought (with different temporal ranges) on objective mental health outcomes controlling for potential environmental confounders. Moreover, the quantification of its cost would be necessary for health prioritization, evidence-based policies and strategic health planning.}, }
@article {pmid38503779, year = {2024}, author = {Magistro, B and Abramson, C and Ebanks, D and Debnath, R and Alvarez, RM}, title = {Identifying American climate change free riders and motivating sustainable behavior.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {6575}, pmid = {38503779}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {OPP1144//Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation)/ ; }, abstract = {Free riders, who benefit from collective efforts to mitigate climate change but do not actively contribute, play a key role in shaping behavioral climate action. Using a sample of 2096 registered American voters, we explore the discrepancy between two groups of free riders: cynics, who recognize the significance of environmental issues but do not adopt sustainable behaviors, and doubters, who neither recognize the significance nor engage in such actions. Through statistical analyses, we show these two groups are different. Doubters are predominantly male, younger, with lower income and education, exhibit stronger conspiracy beliefs, lower altruism, and limited environmental knowledge, are more likely to have voted for Trump and lean towards conservative ideology. Cynics are younger, religious, higher in socioeconomic status, environmentally informed, liberal-leaning, and less likely to support Trump. Our research provides insights on who could be most effectively persuaded to make climate-sensitive lifestyle changes and provides recommendations to prompt involvement in individual sustainability behaviors. Our findings suggest that for doubters, incentivizing sustainability through positive incentives, such as financial rewards, may be particularly effective. Conversely, for cynics, we argue that engaging them in more community-driven and social influence initiatives could effectively translate their passive beliefs into active participation.}, }
@article {pmid38503455, year = {2024}, author = {Leedom, M}, title = {How climate change is changing vaccination planning.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {384}, number = {}, pages = {q360}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q360}, pmid = {38503455}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid38503378, year = {2024}, author = {Rashidi, T and Pakravan-Charvadeh, MR and Gholamrezai, S and Rahimian, M}, title = {Unveiling the nexus of climate change, adaptation strategies, and food security: Insights from small-scale farmers in zagros mountains in Iran.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118691}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118691}, pmid = {38503378}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {In today's world, climate change and its unprecedented impact on food and nutrition security have emerged as a significant and formidable global challenge. This study aimed to investigate the effect of adaptation strategies on the food security of small-scale farmers in Khorramabad city, Iran, using a survey-based analysis. To assess the food security level, the Household Food Security Survey Module (HFSSM) was employed. Additionally, Structural Equation Modeling was utilized to examine the relationship between adaptation dimensions and food security. The findings revealed that households without children exhibited a higher level of food security (48%) compared to households with children (6%). Moreover, the results demonstrated a positive and significant correlation between the food security of households, regardless of whether they had children, and the different adaptation components. Despite a satisfactory level of knowledge regarding climate change adaptation in the study area, the actual implementation of such measures remained low. While weed management, agricultural crop insurance, and access to meteorological information were identified as the top three strategies employed by farmers, the results suggested that sustainable-oriented operations and organic-oriented practices could serve as more effective strategies for both climate change resilience and enhancing food security status.}, }
@article {pmid38501944, year = {2024}, author = {Booth, TH}, title = {Forestry trials and species adaptability to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {e17243}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17243}, pmid = {38501944}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Most climate change analyses of extinction risk rely on species' climatic requirements determined from only their natural distributions. Many tree species can grow successfully under climatic conditions distinctly different from those of their natural distributions. Gathering together results from these introduction trials would help to assess the importance of this climatic adaptability for different tree species.}, }
@article {pmid38501943, year = {2024}, author = {Wiens, JJ and Zelinka, J}, title = {Predict the effects of climate change by studying the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {e17244}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17244}, pmid = {38501943}, issn = {1365-2486}, }
@article {pmid38500858, year = {2024}, author = {de Moraes, KF and Lima, MGM and Gonçalves, GSR and Cerqueira, PV and Santos, MPD}, title = {The future of endemic and threatened birds of the Amazon in the face of global climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {e11097}, pmid = {38500858}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The anthropogenic impacts on the environment, including deforestation and the escalating emissions of greenhouse gases, have significantly contributed to global climate change that can lead to alterations in ecosystems. In this context, protected areas (PAs) are pillars for biodiversity conservation by being able, for example, to maintain the viability of populations of endangered species. On the other hand, the species range shifts do not follow the limits of PAs, jeopardizing the conservation of these species. Furthermore, the effectiveness of PAs is consistently undermined by impacts stemming from land use, hunting activities, and illegal exploitation, both within the designated areas and in their adjacent zones. The objectives of this study are to quantify the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened and endemic birds of the Amazon biome, evaluate the effectiveness of PAs in protecting the richness of threatened birds, and analyze the representativeness of species within PAs. We found with our results that climate suitability loss is above 80 for 65% of taxa in the optimistic scenario and above 93% in the pessimistic scenario. The results show that PAs are not effective in protecting the richness of Amazonian birds, just as they are ineffective in protecting most of the taxa studied when analyzed individually Although some taxa are presented as "Protected," in future scenarios these taxa may suffer major shrinkages in their distributions and consequently present population unviability. The loss of climatically suitable areas and the effectiveness of PAs can directly influence the loss of ecosystem services, fundamental to maintaining the balance of biodiversity. Therefore, our study paves the way for conservation actions aimed at these taxa so that they can mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38500578, year = {2024}, author = {Shamsuddoha, M and Jabed, MA and Islam, MS and Sultana, N and Imran, A and Rabbi, SNA and Jenat, TU and Shams, S and Sharif, MM}, title = {Impacts of climate change-induced natural hazards on women and their human rights implications: A study in the southwest coast of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Journal of migration and health}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {100221}, pmid = {38500578}, issn = {2666-6235}, abstract = {Women in coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to existing gender inequality and socio-cultural norms in Bangladesh. This research aims to explore the vulnerability of women to climate change-induced natural hazards, the challenges they face due to the chain impacts of climate change, and the resulting violation of women's rights. Quantitative and qualitative data were used in this study, where 260 structured questionnaire surveys and 15 Focus Group Discussions were performed at Mongla and Shyamnagar Upazilas in Bagerhat and Satkhira districts, respectively. The quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS 26.0 software, and qualitative data was analyzed thematically. The results disclose that most respondents in Mongla and Shyamnagar reported an increase in the occurrence rate of climate change-induced natural hazards, with cyclones, salinity, and riverbank erosion being the most devastating in Mongla and cyclones, salinity, and storm surges in Shyamnagar. It affects the lives and livelihoods of people, with women being particularly vulnerable due to limited access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities, and women's rights are violated in these areas. Half of the study area's population has been suffering from infections or inflammation in reproductive organs, especially among fisherwomen. The findings of this study recommend that provisions for alternative livelihoods should be made for women, and all women must be brought under the umbrella of fair social safety net programs.}, }
@article {pmid38499847, year = {2024}, author = {Mehraban, M and Marghmaleki, SN and Sarang, A and Azar, NA}, title = {Developing climate change adaptation pathways in the agricultural sector based on robust decision-making approach (case study: Sefidroud Irrigation Network, Iran).}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {4}, pages = {378}, pmid = {38499847}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Allocation of water in the situation of climate change presents various uncertainties. Consequently, decisions must be made to ensure stability and functionality across different climatic scenarios. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector, including a 5% increase in irrigation efficiency (S1) and a shift in irrigation method to Dry-DSR (direct seeded rice) under conditions of climatic uncertainty using a decision-making approach. The study focuses on the basin downstream of the Sefidroud dam, encompassing the Sefidroud irrigation and drainage network. Initially, basin modeling was conducted using the WEAP integrated management software for the period 2006-2020. Subsequently, the impact of climate change was assessed, considering RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios on surface water resources from 2021 to 2050. Runoff and cultivated area, both subject to uncertainty, were identified as key parameters. To evaluate strategy performance under different uncertainties and determine the efficacy of each strategy, regret and satisfaction approaches were employed. Results indicate a projected decrease in future rainfall by 3.5-11.8% compared to the base period, accompanied by an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures (0.83-1.62 °C and 1.15-1.33 °C, respectively). Inflow to the Sefidroud dam is expected to decrease by 13-28%. Presently, the Sefidroud irrigation and drainage network faces an annual deficit of 505.4 MCM, and if current trends persist with the impact of climate change, this shortfall may increase to 932.7 MCM annually. Furthermore, satisfaction indices for strategy (S2) are 0.77 in an optimistic scenario and 0.70 in strategy (S1). In a pessimistic scenario, these indices are 0.67 and 0.56, respectively. Notably, changing the irrigation method with Dry-DSR is recommended as a robust strategy, demonstrating the ability to maintain basin stability under a broad range of uncertainties and climate change scenarios. It is crucial to note that the results solely highlight the effects of climate change on water sources entering the Sefidroud dam. Considering anthropogenic activities upstream of the Sefidroud basin, water resource shortages are expected to increase. Therefore, reallocating water resources and implementing practical and appropriate measures in this area are imperative.}, }
@article {pmid38499678, year = {2024}, author = {Sobel, A}, title = {Are we all doomed? How to cope with the daunting uncertainties of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {627}, number = {8004}, pages = {483-485}, pmid = {38499678}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38499547, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, D and Bisht, G and Tan, Z and Sinha, E and Di Vittorio, AV and Zhou, T and Ivanov, VY and Leung, LR}, title = {Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2438}, pmid = {38499547}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {KP1703110/75415//U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38499332, year = {2024}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Oliveira, C and Giudice, C}, title = {The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 28th Conference of the Parties, Dubai (COP28): Implications for lung disease.}, journal = {Respirology (Carlton, Vic.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/resp.14705}, pmid = {38499332}, issn = {1440-1843}, }
@article {pmid38498724, year = {2024}, author = {Leathers, K and Herbst, D and de Mendoza, G and Doerschlag, G and Ruhi, A}, title = {Climate change is poised to alter mountain stream ecosystem processes via organismal phenological shifts.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {14}, pages = {e2310513121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2310513121}, pmid = {38498724}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {1802714//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 2047324//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting the phenology of organisms and ecosystem processes across a wide range of environments. However, the links between organismal and ecosystem process change in complex communities remain uncertain. In snow-dominated watersheds, snowmelt in the spring and early summer, followed by a long low-flow period, characterizes the natural flow regime of streams and rivers. Here, we examined how earlier snowmelt will alter the phenology of mountain stream organisms and ecosystem processes via an outdoor mesocosm experiment in stream channels in the Eastern Sierra Nevada, California. The low-flow treatment, simulating a 3- to 6-wk earlier return to summer baseflow conditions projected under climate change scenarios in the region, increased water temperature and reduced biofilm production to respiration ratios by 32%. Additionally, most of the invertebrate species explaining community change (56% and 67% of the benthic and emergent taxa, respectively), changed in phenology as a consequence of the low-flow treatment. Further, emergent flux pulses of the dominant insect group (Chironomidae) almost doubled in magnitude, benefitting a generalist riparian predator. Changes in both invertebrate community structure (composition) and functioning (production) were mostly fine-scale, and response diversity at the community level stabilized seasonally aggregated responses. Our study illustrates how climate change in vulnerable mountain streams at the rain-to-snow transition is poised to alter the dynamics of stream food webs via fine-scale changes in phenology-leading to novel predator-prey "matches" or "mismatches" even when community structure and ecosystem processes appear stable at the annual scale.}, }
@article {pmid38498543, year = {2024}, author = {da Silva, NR and Souza, PGC and de Oliveira, GS and da Silva Santana, A and Bacci, L and Silva, GA and Barry, EJDV and de Aguiar Coelho, F and Soares, MA and Picanço, MC and Sarmento, RA and da Silva, RS}, title = {A MaxEnt Model of Citrus Black Fly Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) under Different Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants13040535}, pmid = {38498543}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {The citrus blackfly (CBF), Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby, is an exotic pest native to Southeast Asia that has spread rapidly to the world's main centers of citrus production, having been recently introduced to Brazil. In this study, a maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential worldwide distribution of CBF under current and future climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050. These future scenarios came from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution of CBF with area under receiver operator curve (AUC) values of 0.953 and 0.930 in the initial and final models, respectively. The average temperature of the coldest quarter months, precipitation of the rainiest month, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest month were the strongest predictors of CBF distribution, with contributions of 36.7%, 14.7%, 13.2%, and 10.2%, respectively. The model based on the current time conditions predicted that suitable areas for the potential occurrence of CBF, including countries such as Brazil, China, the European Union, the USA, Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco, are located in tropical and subtropical regions. Models from SSP1-2.6 (2030 and 2050) and SSP5-8.5 (2030) predicted that suitable habitats for CBF are increasing dramatically worldwide under future climate change scenarios, particularly in areas located in the southern US, southern Europe, North Africa, South China, and part of Australia. On the other hand, the SSP5-8.5 model of 2050 indicated a great retraction of the areas suitable for CBF located in the tropical region, with an emphasis on countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and India. In general, the CMIP6 models predicted greater risks of invasion and dissemination of CBF until 2030 and 2050 in the southern regions of the USA, European Union, and China, which are some of the world's largest orange producers. Knowledge of the current situation and future propagation paths of the pest serve as tools to improve the strategic government policies employed in CBF's regulation, commercialization, inspection, combat, and phytosanitary management.}, }
@article {pmid38498439, year = {2024}, author = {Jing, Z and Liu, N and Zhang, Z and Hou, X}, title = {Research Progress on Plant Responses to Stress Combinations in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants13040469}, pmid = {38498439}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {In the context of climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are increasing, environmental pollution and global warming are exacerbated by anthropogenic activities, and plants will experience a more complex and variable environment of stress combinations. Research on plant responses to stress combinations is crucial for the development and utilization of climate-adaptive plants. Recently, the concept of stress combinations has been expanded from simple to multifactorial stress combinations (MFSCs). Researchers have realized the complexity and necessity of stress combination research and have extensively employed composite gradient methods, multi-omics techniques, and interdisciplinary approaches to integrate laboratory and field experiments. Researchers have studied the response mechanisms of plant reactive oxygen species (ROS), phytohormones, transcription factors (TFs), and other response mechanisms under stress combinations and reached some generalized conclusions. In this article, we focus on the research progress and methodological dynamics of plant responses to stress combinations and propose key scientific questions that are crucial to address, in the context of plant responses to stress assemblages, conserving biodiversity, and ensuring food security. We can enhance the search for universal pathways, identify targets for stress combinations, explore adaptive genetic responses, and leverage high-technology research. This is in pursuit of cultivating plants with greater tolerance to stress combinations and enabling their adaptation to and mitigation of the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38498432, year = {2024}, author = {Kopeć, P}, title = {Climate Change-The Rise of Climate-Resilient Crops.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants13040490}, pmid = {38498432}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Climate change disrupts food production in many regions of the world. The accompanying extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold snaps, pose threats to crops. The concentration of carbon dioxide also increases in the atmosphere. The United Nations is implementing the climate-smart agriculture initiative to ensure food security. An element of this project involves the breeding of climate-resilient crops or plant cultivars with enhanced resistance to unfavorable environmental conditions. Modern agriculture, which is currently homogeneous, needs to diversify the species and cultivars of cultivated plants. Plant breeding programs should extensively incorporate new molecular technologies, supported by the development of field phenotyping techniques. Breeders should closely cooperate with scientists from various fields of science.}, }
@article {pmid38498155, year = {2024}, author = {Mata, F and Dos-Santos, M and Cano-Díaz, C and Jesus, M and Vaz-Velho, M}, title = {The Society of Information and the European Citizens' Perception of Climate Change: Natural or Anthropological Causes.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38498155}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {The scientific community has reached a consensus on humans' important role as causative agents of climate change; however, branches of society are still sceptical about this. Climate change is a key issue for humanity and only the commitment to change human attitudes and lifestyles, at the global level, can be effective in its mitigation. With this purpose, it is important to convey the right message and prevent misinformation to manipulate people's minds. The present study aims to understand the factors shaping European citizens' thoughts on the causes of climate change. Using data from the European Social Survey 10 collected in 2022, we fitted statistical models using the people's thoughts on causes of climate change (natural, anthropogenic or both) as dependent variables. As independent variables, we used the impact of the media through time spent on news and time spent on the internet, level of education, level of trust in scientists, awareness of online or mobile misinformation and gender. We concluded that the typical European citizen who believes in anthropogenic causes of climate change is a female, is more literate, trusts more in scientists, is younger, spends more time reading the news and has more awareness of misinformation presence in online and mobile communications.}, }
@article {pmid38497920, year = {2024}, author = {Bhatta, BR and Kc, SP and Regmi, S and Pandey, AR and Adhikari, B and Gautam, G and Baral, SC}, title = {Climate change and health in Nepal: an urgent need for action.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {144}, number = {2}, pages = {75-77}, doi = {10.1177/17579139231215022}, pmid = {38497920}, issn = {1757-9147}, }
@article {pmid38496226, year = {2024}, author = {Ayta, S}, title = {The Effect of Air Pollution and Climate Change on Sleep.}, journal = {Noro psikiyatri arsivi}, volume = {61}, number = {1}, pages = {73-76}, pmid = {38496226}, issn = {1300-0667}, abstract = {Research has shown that air pollution and climate change affect both the duration and quality of sleep; threatens physical and mental health especially through respiratory, cardiovascular, and nervous systems; and shortens life expectancy. This review will begin with overall information on air pollution, climate change and sleep. Then, it will proceed with the effects of these two environmental issues on sleep, in the light of previous research.}, }
@article {pmid38494727, year = {2024}, author = {Montgomery, H}, title = {Final call: Climate change and us.}, journal = {The journal of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {14782715241239085}, doi = {10.1177/14782715241239085}, pmid = {38494727}, issn = {2042-8189}, }
@article {pmid38492839, year = {2024}, author = {Wan, K and Hajat, S and Doherty, RM and Feng, Z}, title = {Integrating Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-informed adaptation into temperature-related mortality projections under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118731}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118731}, pmid = {38492839}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {The extent to which populations will successfully adapt to continued warming temperatures will be a crucial factor in determining future health burdens. Previous health impact assessments of future temperature-related mortality burdens mostly disregard adaptation or make simplistic assumptions. We apply a novel evidence-based approach to model adaptation that takes into account the fact that adaptation potential is likely to vary at different temperatures. Temporal changes in age-specific mortality risk associated with low and high temperatures were characterised for Scotland between 1974 and 2018 using temperature-specific RR ratios to reflect past changes in adaptive capacity. Three scenarios of future adaption were constructed consistent with the SSPs. These adaptation projections were combined with climate and population projections to estimate the mortality burdens attributable to high (above the 90th percentile of the historical temperature distribution) and low (below the 10th percentile) temperatures up to 2080 under five RCP-SSP scenarios. A decomposition analysis was conducted to attribute the change in the mortality burden into adaptation, climate and population. In 1980-2000, the heat burden (21 deaths/year) was smaller than the colder burden (312 deaths/year). In the 2060-2080 period, the heat burden was projected to be the highest under RCP8.5-SSP5 (1285 deaths/year), and the cold burden was the highest under RCP4.5-SSP4 (320 deaths/year). The net burden was lowest under RCP2.6-SSP1 and highest under RCP8.5-SSP5. Improvements in adaptation was the largest factor reducing the cold burden under RCP2.6-SSP1 whilst temperature increase was the biggest factor contributing to the high heat burdens under RCP8.5-SSP5. Ambient heat will become a more important health determinant than cold in Scotland under all climate change and socio-economic scenarios. Adaptive capacity will not fully counter projected increases in heat deaths, underscoring the need for more ambitious climate mitigation measures for Scotland and elsewhere.}, }
@article {pmid38491547, year = {2024}, author = {Kripa, PK and Thanzeen, PS and Jaganathasamy, N and Ravishankaran, S and Anvikar, AR and Eapen, A}, title = {Impact of climate change on temperature variations and extrinsic incubation period of malaria parasites in Chennai, India: implications for its disease transmission potential.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {134}, pmid = {38491547}, issn = {1756-3305}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The global temperature has significantly risen in the past century. Studies have indicated that higher temperature intensifies malaria transmission in tropical and temperate countries. Temperature fluctuations will have a potential impact on parasite development in the vector Anopheles mosquito.<br><br>METHODS: Year-long microclimate temperatures were recorded from a malaria-endemic area, Chennai, India, from September 2021 to August 2022. HOBO data loggers were placed in different vector resting sites including indoor and outdoor roof types. Downloaded temperatures were categorised by season, and the mean temperature was compared with data from the same study area recorded from November 2012 to October 2013. The extrinsic incubation period for Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax was calculated from longitudinal temperatures recorded during both periods. Vector surveillance was also carried out in the area during the summer season.<br><br>RESULTS: In general, temperature and daily temperature range (DTR) have increased significantly compared to the 2012-2013 data, especially the DTR of indoor asbestos structures, from 4.30&#xa0;&#x2103; to 12.62&#xa0;&#x2103; in 2021-2022, unlike the marginal increase observed in thatched and concrete structures. Likewise, the average DTR of outdoor asbestos structures increased from 5.02&#xa0;&#x2103; (2012-2013) to 8.76&#xa0;&#x2103; (2021-2022) although the increase was marginal in thatched structures and, surprisingly, showed no such changes in concrete structures. The key finding of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) is that a decreasing trend was observed in 2021-2022 compared to 2012-2013, mainly in indoor asbestos structures from 7.01 to 6.35&#xa0;days, which negatively correlated with the current observation of an increase in temperature. Vector surveillance undertaken in the summer season revealed the presence of Anopheles breeding in various habitats. Anopheles stephensi could be collected using CDC light traps along with other mosquito species.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The microclimate temperature has increased significantly over the years, and mosquitoes are gradually adapting to this rising temperature. Temperature negatively correlates with the extrinsic incubation period of the parasite. As the temperature increases, the development of the parasite in An. stephensi will be faster because of a decrease in EIP, thus requiring relatively fewer days, posing a risk for disease transmission and a hindrance to malaria elimination efforts.}, }
@article {pmid38491185, year = {2024}, author = {Jiao, N and Luo, T and Chen, Q and Zhao, Z and Xiao, X and Liu, J and Jian, Z and Xie, S and Thomas, H and Herndl, GJ and Benner, R and Gonsior, M and Chen, F and Cai, WJ and Robinson, C}, title = {The microbial carbon pump and climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38491185}, issn = {1740-1534}, abstract = {The ocean has been a regulator of climate change throughout the history of Earth. One key mechanism is the mediation of the carbon reservoir by refractory dissolved organic carbon (RDOC), which can either be stored in the water column for centuries or released back into the atmosphere as CO2 depending on the conditions. The RDOC is produced through a myriad of microbial metabolic and ecological processes known as the microbial carbon pump (MCP). Here, we review recent research advances in processes related to the MCP, including the distribution patterns and molecular composition of RDOC, links between the complexity of RDOC compounds and microbial diversity, MCP-driven carbon cycles across time and space, and responses of the MCP to a changing climate. We identify knowledge gaps and future research directions in the role of the MCP, particularly as a key component in integrated approaches combining the mechanisms of the biological and abiotic carbon pumps for ocean negative carbon emissions.}, }
@article {pmid38490001, year = {2024}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Dinis, MAP and Nagy, GJ and Fracassi, U and Aina, YA}, title = {A ticket to where? Dwindling snow cover impacts the winter tourism sector as a consequence of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {356}, number = {}, pages = {120554}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120554}, pmid = {38490001}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change affects human activities, including tourism across various sectors and time frames. The winter tourism industry, dependent on low temperatures, faces significant impacts. This paper reviews the implications of climate change on winter tourism, emphasising challenges for activities like skiing and snowboarding, which rely on consistent snowfall and low temperatures. As the climate changes, these once taken-for-granted conditions are no longer as commonplace. Through a comprehensive review supported by up-to-date satellite imagery, this paper presents evidence suggesting that the reliability of winter snow is decreasing, with findings revealing a progressive reduction in snow levels associated with temperature and precipitation changes in some regions. The analysis underscores the need for concerted efforts by stakeholders who must recognize the reality of diminishing snow availability and work towards understanding the specific changes in snow patterns. This should involve multi-risk and multi-instrument assessments, including ongoing satellite data monitoring to track snow cover changes. The practical implications for sports activities and the tourism industry reliant on snow involve addressing challenges by diversifying offerings. This includes developing alternative winter tourism activities less dependent on snow, such as winter hiking, nature walks, or cultural experiences.}, }
@article {pmid38489074, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, M and Bravo de Guenni, L and Córdova, JR}, title = {Climate change impacts on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves in local scale catchments.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {4}, pages = {372}, pmid = {38489074}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {The increasing intensity and frequency of rainfall events, a critical aspect of climate change, pose significant challenges in the construction of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for climate projection. These curves are crucial for infrastructure development, but the non-stationarity of extreme rainfall raises concerns about their adequacy under future climate conditions. This research addresses these challenges by investigating the reasons behind the IPCC climate report's evidence about the validity that rainfall follows the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship, which suggests a 7% increase in precipitation per 1 °C increase in temperature. Our study provides guidelines for adjusting IDF curves in the future, considering both current and future climates. We calculate extreme precipitation changes and scaling factors for small urban catchments in Barranquilla, Colombia, a tropical region, using the bootstrapping method. This reveals the occurrence of a sub-CC relationship, suggesting that the generalized 7% figure may not be universally applicable. In contrast, our comparative analysis with Illinois, USA, an inland city in the north temperate zone, shows adherence to the CC relationship. This emphasizes the need for local parameter calculations rather than relying solely on the generalized 7% figure.}, }
@article {pmid38489036, year = {2024}, author = {Kalita, B and Kumar, CJ and Hazarika, N and Baruah, KK and Borah, L}, title = {Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Practices and Agricultural Livelihoods among Rice Farmers of the Brahmaputra Valley in Northeast India.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38489036}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {F.No.02/173/2019-20/MN/RP Dated: 05-12-2019//Indian Council of Social Science Research/ ; F.No.02/173/2019-20/MN/RP Dated: 05-12-2019//Indian Council of Social Science Research/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate change has seriously threatened agriculture and connected sectors, especially in developing countries like India. The Brahmaputra Valley in Assam, Northeast India, is vulnerable to climate change due to its agrarian economy, fragile geo-ecological setting, recurrent floods and droughts, and poor socioeconomic conditions of the farmers. The climate-induced hindrances faced by the rice farming community of this region and the local adaptation practices they employ have not been adequately studied. Therefore, we carried out a survey among 635 rice farmers across four agro-climatic zones of Assam, namely the Upper Brahmaputra Valley Zone, North Bank Plain Zone, Central Brahmaputra Valley Zone, and Lower Brahmaputra Valley Zone, to understand how they perceive and respond to climatic changes. The survey revealed that all the respondents have perceived an increase in ambient temperature, and 65% of the respondents have perceived a slight change in rainfall characteristics over the years. Most farmers reported adjusting the existing farming practices and livelihood choices to adapt to the changing climate. Farming adjustments were made mainly in terms of field preparation and management of water, rice variety, nutrients, and pests. Environmental variables like rainfall, flood, drought, and pest level, and socioeconomic variables like family size, education, farming experience, training, digital media exposure, and land area were found to influence farmers' adaptation choices. The findings imply that policies to strengthen flood, drought, pest management, education, land-use planning, agricultural training, and digital media applications in agriculture are needed for effective climate change adaptation in this region.}, }
@article {pmid38488478, year = {2024}, author = {Perry, WB}, title = {They grow up so fast, especially when global warming is concerned.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {104}, number = {3}, pages = {507}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.15723}, pmid = {38488478}, issn = {1095-8649}, }
@article {pmid38488102, year = {2024}, author = {Semenza, JC}, title = {Climate Change and Contagion: The Circuitous Impacts From Infectious Diseases.}, journal = {The Journal of infectious diseases}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/infdis/jiad571}, pmid = {38488102}, issn = {1537-6613}, }
@article {pmid38487936, year = {2024}, author = {Wongpanarak, N and Langkulsen, U}, title = {Climate change and mental health in Northeast of Thailand.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-16}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2024.2328741}, pmid = {38487936}, issn = {1369-1619}, abstract = {Climate-induced health hazards are increasingly evident and frequent, with mental health emerging as a critical concern. Our study focuses on assessing mental health challenges related to climate variability in Northeastern Thailand. Using descriptive cross-sectional analysis and the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision (ICD-10), we analyzed mental health morbidity from 2018 to 2022. High average monthly temperatures exceeding 30°C and exposure to floods or droughts elevate the risk of mental health challenges. To address these risks, a holistic approach integrating Sustainable Development Goals and mental health initiatives is essential. This approach should prioritize understanding the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health. Supporting marginalized communities with indigenous knowledge and evidence-based programs can effectively prioritize sustainable mental health support, especially for vulnerable populations, fostering progress in human development and wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid38487656, year = {2024}, author = {von Gal, A and Fabiani, G and Piccardi, L}, title = {Climate change anxiety, fear, and intention to act.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1341921}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1341921}, pmid = {38487656}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change anxiety (CCA) is an emerging yet not clearly defined construct. Here, we examine the relationship between CCA and climate change-related fear in response to messages differently framing uncertainty and anticipation concerning climate change, exploring how the former differs from general anxiety measures. To this purpose, young and healthy volunteers were assigned to three different framing conditions. Their emotional responses as well as eco-emotions and beliefs about climate change were collected. By employing a Bayesian approach, we found that framing the consequences of climate change effectively induces heightened fear and that CCA strongly predicted fear levels, while general anxiety measures did not. Overall, these results reflect CCA's unique and specific nature in influencing climate change-related fear. Interestingly, we found fear to predict intention scores only following the framings that did not effectively induce action intentions, consistent with prior findings on fear without efficacy framing. Instead, reading about the negative consequences motivated action the most. Following this framing, we found that eco-anger, instead of fear, consistently predicted intentions to engage in climate action. These results emphasize the complex interplay between CCA, eco-emotions, efficacy, and behavioral engagement.}, }
@article {pmid38487362, year = {2024}, author = {Murray, M and Wright, J and Araya-Ajoy, YG}, title = {Evolutionary rescue from climate change: male indirect genetic effects on lay-dates and their consequences for population persistence.}, journal = {Evolution letters}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {137-148}, pmid = {38487362}, issn = {2056-3744}, abstract = {Changes in avian breeding phenology are among the most apparent responses to climate change in free-ranging populations. A key question is whether populations will be able to keep up with the expected rates of environmental change. There is a large body of research on the mechanisms by which avian lay-dates track temperature change and the consequences of (mal)adaptation on population persistence. Often overlooked is the role of males, which can influence the lay-date of their mate through their effect on the prelaying environment. We explore how social plasticity causing male indirect genetic effects can help or hinder population persistence when female genes underpinning lay-date and male genes influencing female's timing of reproduction both respond to climate-mediated selection. We extend quantitative genetic moving optimum models to predict the consequences of social plasticity on the maximum sustainable rate of temperature change, and evaluate our model using a combination of simulated data and empirical estimates from the literature. Our results suggest that predictions for population persistence may be biased if indirect genetic effects and cross-sex genetic correlations are not considered and that the extent of this bias depends on sex differences in how environmental change affects the optimal timing of reproduction. Our model highlights that more empirical work is needed to understand sex-specific effects of environmental change on phenology and the fitness consequences for population dynamics. While we discuss our results exclusively in the context of avian breeding phenology, the approach we take here can be generalized to many different contexts and types of social interaction.}, }
@article {pmid38487311, year = {2024}, author = {Vanderhoof, MK and Christensen, JR and Alexander, LC and Lane, CR and Golden, HE}, title = {Climate Change Will Impact Surface Water Extents and Dynamics Across the Central United States.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {1-31}, doi = {10.1029/2023ef004106}, pmid = {38487311}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {Climate change is projected to impact river, lake, and wetland hydrology, with global implications for the condition and productivity of aquatic ecosystems. We integrated Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 based algorithms to track monthly surface water extent (2017-2021) for 32 sites across the central United States (U.S.). Median surface water extent was highly variable across sites, ranging from 3.9% to 45.1% of a site. To account for landscape-based differences (e.g., water storage capacity, land use) in the response of surface water extents to meteorological conditions, individual statistical models were developed for each site. Future changes to climate were defined as the difference between 2006-2025 and 2061-2080 using MACA-CMIP5 (MACAv2-METDATA) Global Circulation Models. Time series of climate change adjusted surface water extents were projected. Annually, 19 of the 32 sites under RCP4.5 and 22 of the 32 sites under RCP8.5 were projected to show an average decline in surface water extent, with drying most consistent across the southeast central, southwest central, and midwest central U.S. Projected declines under surface water dry conditions at these sites suggest greater impacts of drought events are likely in the future. Projected changes were seasonally variable, with the greatest decline in surface water extent expected in summer and fall seasons. In contrast, many north central sites showed a projected increase in surface water in most seasons, relative to the 2017-2021 period, likely attributable to projected increases in winter and spring precipitation exceeding increases in projected temperature.}, }
@article {pmid38487255, year = {2024}, author = {Ali, AE and Millington, R and Darnell, S and Smith, T}, title = {Policy vs. practice in sport and climate change: the perspectives of key actors in global sport and international development.}, journal = {Frontiers in sports and active living}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {1297739}, pmid = {38487255}, issn = {2624-9367}, abstract = {Despite widespread, scientifically supported recognition of the scope of the climate crisis, and policies in place connecting sport to sustainable development, there remain concerns that the environment and climate change are rarely acknowledged within SDP activity and that even when they are, it is unclear how such policies are implemented, and to what effect. This raises the question of how and why the climate crisis and the attendant relationships between sport and sustainable development are understood and operationalized (or not) by stakeholders within the SDP sector. In this paper, therefore, we explore various perspectives and tensions around the environment and climate crisis within the SDP sector. To do so, we draw on interviews with SDP policy-makers (primarily from the United Nations and the International Olympic Committee) and SDP practitioners living and working in the global South in order to gauge the place of the environment and climate change in their everyday SDP policy-making, programming and practices. Overall, the data shows that while SDP stakeholders recognize the urgency of the climate crisis, the need for action, and the policy agenda linking sport to sustainable development, significant barriers, tensions and politics are still in place that prevent consistent climate action within SDP. Policy commitments and coherence are therefore needed in order to make climate action a core feature of SDP activity and practice.}, }
@article {pmid38486116, year = {2024}, author = {de Souza, WM and Weaver, SC}, title = {Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38486116}, issn = {1740-1534}, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by haematophagous arthropods (for example, mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies) to humans and wild and domestic animals, with the largest burden on global public health disproportionately affecting people in tropical and subtropical areas. Because vectors are ectothermic, climate and weather alterations (for example, temperature, rainfall and humidity) can affect their reproduction, survival, geographic distribution and, consequently, ability to transmit pathogens. However, the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be multifaceted and complex, sometimes with ambiguous consequences. In this Review, we discuss the potential effects of climate change, weather and other anthropogenic factors, including land use, human mobility and behaviour, as possible contributors to the redistribution of vectors and spread of vector-borne diseases worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid38486108, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Extinction drives the climate-change-induced reshuffling of forest plant communities.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38486108}, issn = {2397-334X}, }
@article {pmid38485989, year = {2024}, author = {Chemura, A and Gleixner, S and Gornott, C}, title = {Dataset of the suitability of major food crops in Africa under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {294}, pmid = {38485989}, issn = {2052-4463}, abstract = {Understanding the extent and adapting to the impacts of climate change in the agriculture sector in Africa requires robust data on which technical and policy decisions can be based. However, there are no publicly available comprehensive data of which crops are suitable where under current and projected climate conditions for impact assessments and targeted adaptation planning. We developed a dataset on crop suitability of 23 major food crops (eight cereals, six legumes &amp; pulses, six root &amp; tuber crops, and three in banana-related family) for rainfed agriculture in Africa in terms of area and produced quantity. This dataset is based on the EcoCrop model parameterized with temperature, precipitation and soil data and is available for the historical period and until mid-century. The scenarios used for future projections are SSP1:RCP2.6, SSP3:RCP7.0 and SSP5:RCP8.5. The dataset provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on crop production potential and can enable applications and linkages of crop impact studies to other socioeconomic aspects, thereby facilitating more comprehensive understanding of climate change impacts and assessment of options for building resilience.}, }
@article {pmid38485718, year = {2024}, author = {Georges, V and Vaz, S and Carbonara, P and Fabri, MC and Fanelli, E and Follesa, MC and Garofalo, G and Gerovasileiou, V and Jadaud, A and Maiorano, P and Marin, P and Mytilineou, C and Orejas, C and Del Mar Otero, M and Smith, CJ and Thasitis, I and Lauria, V}, title = {Mapping the habitat refugia of Isidella elongata under climate change and trawling impacts to preserve Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems in the Mediterranean.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {6246}, pmid = {38485718}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The bamboo-coral Isidella elongata is a key habitat-forming species in the deep Mediterranean Sea. This alcyonacean is listed as an indicator of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs) and as Critically Endangered due to bottom trawling impacts. In this work, a modeling approach was used to predict and map the habitat suitability of I. elongata in the Mediterranean Sea under current environmental conditions. Occurrence data were modeled as a function of environmental parameters. Using climate change scenarios and fishing effort data, the risk of climate change and fisheries impacts on habitat suitability were estimated, and climate refugia were identified. A drastic loss of habitat is predicted, and climate change scenarios suggest a loss of 60% of suitable habitats by 2100. In the central Mediterranean, climate refugia overlapped with active fishing grounds. This study represents the first attempt to identify hot spots for the protection of soft bottom Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems for the entire Mediterranean Sea, and highlights areas most at risk from trawling. This work is relevant to the objectives of the EU Marine Strategy Framework and Maritime Spatial Planning Directives, the Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 regarding priority areas for conservation.}, }
@article {pmid38485623, year = {2024}, author = {Zuo, Z and Qiao, L and Zhang, R and Chen, D and Piao, S and Xiao, D and Zhang, K}, title = {Importance of soil moisture conservation in mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2024.02.033}, pmid = {38485623}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {A troubling feedback loop, where drier soil contributes to hotter climates, has been widely recognized. This study, drawing on climate model simulations, reveals that maintaining current global soil moisture levels could significantly alleviate 32.9% of land warming under low-emission scenarios. This action could also postpone reaching critical warming thresholds of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C by at least a decade. Crucially, preserving soil moisture at current levels could prevent noticeable climate change impacts across 42% of the Earth's land, a stark deviation from projections suggesting widespread impacts before the 2060s. To combat soil drying, afforestation in mid-to-low latitude regions within the next three decades is proposed as an effective strategy to increase surface water availability. This underscores the substantial potential of nature-based solutions for managing soil moisture, benefiting both climate change mitigation and ecological enhancement.}, }
@article {pmid38485467, year = {2024}, author = {Nasr, A and Ivanov, OL and Björnsson, I and Johansson, J}, title = {The need for nonuniform risk acceptability across climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.14293}, pmid = {38485467}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {//Trafikverket 2016-008, 2019-027/ ; //VINNOVA 2018-00611/ ; //Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas 2015-00451/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change risk assessment studies focus on identifying and analyzing different risks considering several climate change scenarios and on evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different adaptation measures. However, risk acceptability is often not reflected on in the context of climate change risk studies. Noting that the different climate change scenarios depict drastically contrasting images of the future in terms of population growth, economic development, and changes to life expectancy, this article uses risk acceptance criteria that are based on socioeconomic considerations to highlight the need for nonuniform risk acceptability across climate change scenarios. For this purpose, the optimum implied cost of averting a fatality derived based on the life quality index concept and the value of a quality-adjusted life year derived based on the time principle of acceptable life risk are assessed in three different climate change scenarios for Sweden. Additionally, an illustrative example that assesses the acceptable probability of failure of a steel rod under axial tension in the different climate change scenarios is presented. It is shown that risk acceptance criteria can vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios (e.g., more than 190% variation in the acceptable probability of failure for Sweden in the considered example). This article demonstrates that the ability of societies to afford risk-reducing measures may vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios. Hence, it can be concluded that (1) in the context of climate change risk assessments, risk acceptance criteria need to be developed to account for the different climate change scenarios, and (2) these criteria may vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios. Finally, relevant challenges and research needs are also provided.}, }
@article {pmid38484608, year = {2024}, author = {Cervini, C and Naz, N and Verheecke-Vaessen, C and Medina, A}, title = {Impact of predicted climate change environmental conditions on the growth of Fusarium asiaticum strains and mycotoxins production on a wheat-based matrix.}, journal = {International journal of food microbiology}, volume = {416}, number = {}, pages = {110658}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2024.110658}, pmid = {38484608}, issn = {1879-3460}, abstract = {Fusarium asiaticum is a predominant fungal pathogen causing Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) in wheat and barley in China and is associated with approximately £201 million in annual losses due to grains contaminated with mycotoxins. F. asiaticum produces deoxynivalenol and zearalenone whose maximum limits in cereals and cereals-derived products have been established in different countries including the EU. Few studies are available on the ecophysiological behaviour of this fungal pathogen, but nothing is known about the impact of projected climate change scenarios on its growth and mycotoxin production. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the interacting effect of i) current and increased temperature (25 vs 30 °C), ii) drought stress variation (0.98 vs 0.95 water activity; aw) and iii) existing and predicted CO2 concentrations (400 vs 1000 ppm) on fungal growth and mycotoxin production (type B trichothecenes and zearalenone) by three F. asiaticum strains (CH024b, 82, 0982) on a wheat-based matrix after 10 days of incubation. The results showed that, when exposed to increased CO2 concentration (1000 ppm) there was a significant reduction of fungal growth compared to current concentration (400 ppm) both at 25 and 30 °C, especially at 0.95 aw. The multi-mycotoxin analysis performed by LC-MS/MS qTRAP showed a significant increase of deoxynivalenol and 15-acetyldeoxynivalenol production when the CH024b strain was exposed to elevated CO2 compared to current CO2 levels. Zearalenone production by the strain 0982 was significantly stimulated by mild water stress (0.95 aw) and increased CO2 concentration (1000 ppm) regardless of the temperature. Such results highlight that intraspecies variability exist among F. asiaticum strains with some mycotoxins likely to exceed current EU legislative limits under prospected climate change conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38484115, year = {2024}, author = {Zhao, G and Kim, H and Yang, C and Chung, YG}, title = {Leveraging Machine Learning To Predict the Atmospheric Lifetime and the Global Warming Potential of SF6 Replacement Gases.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1021/acs.jpca.3c07339}, pmid = {38484115}, issn = {1520-5215}, abstract = {The global warming potential (GWP) is a relative measure of the capability of a molecule to trap the Earth's infrared radiation as heat. The measurement or prediction of the GWP of a molecule is based on two factors: the radiative efficiency and atmospheric lifetime of a molecule. While the calculation of the radiative efficiency of a molecule using the computational chemistry approach, such as density functional theory (DFT), is well-established and robust, the development of a computational approach to estimate the atmospheric lifetime remains challenging and limited to date. In this contribution, we developed a machine learning (ML) approach to estimate a molecule's atmospheric lifetime and GWP100 based on electronic and geometrical features. We benchmarked the state-of-the-art computational workflow with the developed ML model in estimating the atmospheric lifetime and GWP100. The developed ML model outperforms the existing approach with the mean absolute error values of 0.234 (ML-predicted atmospheric lifetime) and 0.249 (direct ML model for GWP100) compared with 0.535 (Atkinson's method) and 0.773 (Kazakov et al.) from previous works. The developed models were used to screen >7000 molecules in PubChem and bigQM7 data sets in a search for SF6 replacement gas for the electric industry and identified 84 potential candidates.}, }
@article {pmid38481856, year = {2024}, author = {Hosni, EM and Al-Khalaf, AA and Nasser, MG and ElShahed, SM and Alashaal, SA}, title = {Locustamigratoria (L.) (Orthoptera) in a warming world: unravelling the ecological consequences of climate change using GIS.}, journal = {Biodiversity data journal}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {e115845}, pmid = {38481856}, issn = {1314-2828}, abstract = {The migratory locust, Locustamigratoria (L.), a significant grasshopper species known for its ability to form large swarms and cause extensive damage to crops and vegetation, is subject to the influence of climate change. This research paper employs geographic information system (GIS) and MaxEnt ecological modelling techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution patterns of L.migratoria. Occurrence data and environmental variables are collected and analysed to create predictive models for the current and future distribution of the species. The study highlights the crucial role of climate factors, particularly temperature and precipitation, in determining the locust's distribution. The MaxEnt models exhibit high-performance indicators, accurately predicting the potential habitat suitability of L.migratoria. Additionally, specific bioclimatic variables, such as mean temperature and annual precipitation, are identified as significant factors influencing the species' presence. The generated future maps indicate how this species will invade new regions especially in Europe. Such results predict the risk of this destructive species for many agriculture communities as a direct result of a warming world. The research provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between locust distribution and environmental factors, enabling the development of effective strategies for locust management and early warning systems to mitigate the impact on agriculture and ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38481649, year = {2023}, author = {Ripoche, M and Irace-Cima, A and Adam-Poupart, A and Baron, G and Bouchard, C and Carignan, A and Milord, F and Ouhoummane, N and Pilon, PA and Thivierge, K and Zinszer, K and Chaumont, D}, title = {Current and future burden from Lyme disease in Québec as a result of climate change.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {49}, number = {10}, pages = {446-456}, pmid = {38481649}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {CONTEXT: Environmental changes will foster the spread of Ixodes scapularis ticks and increase the incidence of Lyme disease in Québec in the coming years. The objective of this study is to estimate the epidemiological and clinical burden and part of the current economic burden of Lyme disease in Québec and to estimate the number of cases expected by 2050.<br><br>METHODS: Cases of Lyme disease reported in Qu&#xe9;bec from 2015 to 2019 were used to describe their demographic, geographical and clinical characteristics and the cost of their initial care. Three incidence rate scenarios were then developed to estimate the number of cases expected by 2050, based on demographic and climate projections.<br><br>RESULTS: From 2016 to 2019, 1,473 cases of Lyme disease were reported in Qu&#xe9;bec. Over 90% of those cases were acquired in two regions of southern Qu&#xe9;bec (Estrie and Mont&#xe9;r&#xe9;gie), while the individuals infected were residents from all over Qu&#xe9;bec. The average age of cases is 44 years and 66% of infections were at the localized stage, the first stage of Lyme disease. The cost of initial care is estimated at an average of $182 CAN per patient ($47 CAN at the localized stage and $443 CAN at the disseminated stage). According to projections, over 95% of the Qu&#xe9;bec population will live in a climate zone conducive to the establishment of ticks by 2050, with a number of cases acquired in Qu&#xe9;bec being 1.3 to 14.5 times higher than in 2019, depending on the incidence rate scenario used.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The epidemiological burden is concentrated primarily in southern Qu&#xe9;bec, but the clinical and economic burden is already distributed throughout the province. The projections for 2050 should help the regions of Qu&#xe9;bec adapt and optimize public health protection measures.}, }
@article {pmid38481118, year = {2024}, author = {Varshney, RK and Barmukh, R and Bentley, A and Nguyen, HT}, title = {Exploring the genomics of abiotic stress tolerance and crop resilience to climate change.}, journal = {The plant genome}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e20445}, doi = {10.1002/tpg2.20445}, pmid = {38481118}, issn = {1940-3372}, }
@article {pmid38480802, year = {2024}, author = {Birkenbach, M and Egloff, B}, title = {Effects of matching climate change appeals to personal values.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {6128}, pmid = {38480802}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The stronger people hold self-enhancing (that is, egoistic or hedonic) values, the less they tend agree with pro-environmental efforts. An exploratory (N = 901) and a confirmatory study (N = 404) examined the effectiveness of pro-environmental messages matched to individuals' values. Findings indicate that strong endorsement of self-transcendent (that is, altruistic or biospheric) values is associated with unspecific endorsement of pro-environmental messages, while individuals endorsing self-enhancement values respond positively only to value-matched appeals.}, }
@article {pmid38478574, year = {2024}, author = {Mulopo, C and Abimbola, S and Onkoba, N and Schmidt, BM}, title = {A planetary health perspective on the translation of climate change research into public health policy and practice: A scoping review protocol.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {e0295931}, pmid = {38478574}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate Change (CC) emanating from anthropocentric human activities is a great threat to the quality of human life and well-being worldwide. The translation of CC research evidence can play a critical role in promoting the formulation of climate-sensitive policies to equip public health systems for CC-associated disaster preparedness, response, and management. This scoping review seeks to explore knowledge translation approaches for promoting, the uptake, and use of CC research evidence in public health policy and practice.<br><br>METHODS: This scoping review will be conducted according to the guidelines of Arksey and O'Malley. A search strategy will be developed for published articles in PubMed, CINAHL, and Scopus databases and for grey literature in the World Health Organization, Planetary Health Alliance, and the University of the Western Cape repositories.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The proposed scoping review will gather existing evidence on the relationship between knowledge translation, CC research, and public health decision-making. This will provide insights into research and practice gaps, and recommendations will be made to ensure effective knowledge translation for CC related decision-making.}, }
@article {pmid38478572, year = {2024}, author = {Ayalon, L}, title = {Age differences in the context of climate change: Does exposure to a fake consensus statement make a difference?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {e0298219}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0298219}, pmid = {38478572}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The present study examined whether people of different age groups respond differently to a true versus fake consensus statement concerning climate change. In total, 309 participants were randomly exposed to a true consensus statement about climate change and 311 were exposed to a false statement. Subsequently, respondents were asked to respond to items about attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions concerning climate change. Compared with younger people, older persons are significantly more concerned about climate change, more likely to report that climate change is real and more willing to take climate change action. Nevertheless, older persons also are more likely to be willing to post both fake and truthful information about climate change, thus, possibly serving as spreaders of both fake and truthful information. The findings suggest that it is younger people who will benefit from further education about climate change and older people who may benefit from education about the spread of information in social media. Our findings also suggest that simply providing individuals with consensus information has only limited impact on their climate change attitudes, feelings and behavioral intentions.}, }
@article {pmid38478484, year = {2024}, author = {Mitterwallner, V and Steinbauer, M and Mathes, G and Walentowitz, A}, title = {Global reduction of snow cover in ski areas under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {e0299735}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0299735}, pmid = {38478484}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Ongoing climate change substantially alters snowfall patterns with severe but diverging consequences for global ski areas. A global assessment as well as the investigation of potential implications for mountain ecosystems is currently lacking. We quantify future trends in natural snow cover days under different climate change scenarios until 2100 in seven major global skiing regions and discuss implications for mountainous biodiversity by analysing how natural snow cover days relate to regional human population density. Within all major skiing regions, snow cover days are projected to decrease substantially under every assessed climate change scenario. Thirteen percent of all current ski areas are projected to completely lose natural annual snow cover and one fifth will experience a reduction of more than 50% by 2071-2100 relative to historic baselines. Future skiable areas will concentrate in less populated areas, towards continental regions and inner parts of the mountain ranges. As skiable areas will be located at greater distances to highly populated areas in the future, we expect an expansion of infrastructure and increasing intervening actions (i.e., artificial snowmaking, slope grooming) to prolong snow duration. Our results are concerning for both the recreational and economic value of skiing as well as for mountain biodiversity since vulnerable high-altitude species might be threatened by space reductions with ski area expansion.}, }
@article {pmid38477572, year = {2024}, author = {Garcia-Bustos, V}, title = {Is Candida auris the first multidrug-resistant fungal zoonosis emerging from climate change?.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e0014624}, doi = {10.1128/mbio.00146-24}, pmid = {38477572}, issn = {2150-7511}, abstract = {The emergence and evolutionary path of Candida auris poses an intriguing scientific enigma. Its isolation from a pet dog's oral cavity in Kansas, reported by White et al. (T. C. White, B. D. Esquivel, E. M. Rouse Salcido, A. M. Schweiker, et al., mBio 15:e03080-23, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1128/mbio.03080-23), carries significant implications. This discovery intensifies concerns about its hypothetical capacity for zoonotic transmission, particularly considering the dog's extensive human contact and the absence of secondary animal/human cases in both animals and humans. The findings challenge established notions of C. auris transmissibility and underscore the need for further investigation into the transmission dynamics, especially zooanthroponotic pathways. It raises concerns about its adaptability in different hosts and environments, highlighting potential role of environmental and animal reservoirs in its dissemination. Critical points include the evolving thermal tolerance and the genetic divergence in the isolate. This case exemplifies the necessity for an integrated One Health approach, combining human, animal, and environmental health perspectives, to unravel the complexities of C. auris's emergence and behavior.}, }
@article {pmid38477222, year = {2024}, author = {Casu, A and Camardo Leggieri, M and Toscano, P and Battilani, P}, title = {Changing climate, shifting mycotoxins: A comprehensive review of climate change impact on mycotoxin contamination.}, journal = {Comprehensive reviews in food science and food safety}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {e13323}, doi = {10.1111/1541-4337.13323}, pmid = {38477222}, issn = {1541-4337}, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is a complex phenomenon that has the potential to significantly alter marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems worldwide. Global warming of 2°C is expected to be exceeded during the 21st century, and the frequency of extreme weather events, including floods, storms, droughts, extreme temperatures, and wildfires, has intensified globally over recent decades, differently affecting areas of the world. How CC may impact multiple food safety hazards is increasingly evident, with mycotoxin contamination in particular gaining in prominence. Research focusing on CC effects on mycotoxin contamination in edible crops has developed considerably throughout the years. Therefore, we conducted a comprehensive literature search to collect available studies in the scientific literature published between 2000 and 2023. The selected papers highlighted how warmer temperatures are enabling the migration, introduction, and mounting abundance of thermophilic and thermotolerant fungal species, including those producing mycotoxins. Certain mycotoxigenic fungal species, such as Aspergillus flavus and Fusarium graminearum, are expected to readily acclimatize to new conditions and could become more aggressive pathogens. Furthermore, abiotic stress factors resulting from CC are expected to weaken the resistance of host crops, rendering them more vulnerable to fungal disease outbreaks. Changed interactions of mycotoxigenic fungi are likewise expected, with the effect of influencing the prevalence and co-occurrence of mycotoxins in the future. Looking ahead, future research should focus on improving predictive modeling, expanding research into different pathosystems, and facilitating the application of effective strategies to mitigate the impact of CC.}, }
@article {pmid38476980, year = {2023}, author = {Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and de Schrijver, E and Schumacher, DL and Ragettli, MS and Fischer, EM and Seneviratne, SI}, title = {The footprint of human-induced climate change on heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 in Switzerland.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {18}, number = {}, pages = {074037}, pmid = {38476980}, issn = {1748-9326}, abstract = {Human-induced climate change is leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, which are severely affecting the health of the population. The exceptional heat during the summer of 2022 in Europe is an example, with record-breaking temperatures only below the infamous 2003 summer. High ambient temperatures are associated with many health outcomes, including premature mortality. However, there is limited quantitative evidence on the contribution of anthropogenic activities to the substantial heat-related mortality observed in recent times. Here we combined methods in climate epidemiology and attribution to quantify the heat-related mortality burden attributed to human-induced climate change in Switzerland during the summer of 2022. We first estimated heat-mortality association in each canton and age/sex population between 1990 and 2017 in a two-stage time-series analysis. We then calculated the mortality attributed to heat in the summer of 2022 using observed mortality, and compared it with the hypothetical heat-related burden that would have occurred in absence of human-induced climate change. This counterfactual scenario was derived by regressing the Swiss average temperature against global mean temperature in both observations and CMIP6 models. We estimate 623 deaths [95% empirical confidence interval (95% eCI): 151-1068] due to heat between June and August 2022, corresponding to 3.5% of all-cause mortality. More importantly, we find that 60% of this burden (370 deaths [95% eCI: 133-644]) could have been avoided in absence of human-induced climate change. Older women were affected the most, as well as populations in western and southern Switzerland and more urbanized areas. Our findings demonstrate that human-induced climate change was a relevant driver of the exceptional excess health burden observed in the 2022 summer in Switzerland.}, }
@article {pmid38476656, year = {2023}, author = {Kaseya, J and Alimi, Y and Aluso, A and Habtemariam, MK and Crowell, TA and Ngongo, AN and Kebede, Y and Ndembi, N}, title = {Tackling the twin threats of pandemics and climate change: An agenda for action.}, journal = {Journal of public health in Africa}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {2868}, pmid = {38476656}, issn = {2038-9922}, }
@article {pmid38476251, year = {2024}, author = {Orlov, A and Schleypen, J and Aunan, K and Sillmann, J and Gasparrini, A and Mistry, MN}, title = {A better integration of health and economic impact assessments of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {031004}, pmid = {38476251}, issn = {1748-9326}, abstract = {Climate change could lead to high economic burden for individuals (i.e. low income and high prices). While economic conditions are important determinants of climate change vulnerability, environmental epidemiological studies focus primarily on the direct impact of temperature on morbidity and mortality without accounting for climate-induced impacts on the economy. More integrated approaches are needed to provide comprehensive assessments of climate-induced direct and indirect impacts on health. This paper provides some perspectives on how epidemiological and economic impact assessments could be better integrated. We argue that accounting for the economic repercussions of climate change on people's health and, vice versa, the consequences of health effects on the economy could provide more realistic scenario projections and could be more useful for adaptation policy.}, }
@article {pmid38473163, year = {2024}, author = {Fernández, I and Larrán, AM and de Paz, P and Riesco, MF}, title = {The Direct Effects of Climate Change on Tench (Tinca tinca) Sperm Quality under a Real Heatwave Event Scenario.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani14050778}, pmid = {38473163}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {REPHEAT project (PID2021-127782OA-I00)//MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, by "ERDF A way of making Europe", by the "European Union", and the "European Union Next Generation EU/PRTR/ ; I417 project, Ayuda a proyectos de investigaci&#xf3;n ULE//University of Le&#xf3;n/ ; Optimizaci&#xf3;n integral de los sistemas productivos en acuicultura: revalorizaci&#xf3;n de materias primas locales en piensos y en cr&#xed;a de especies en potencial desarrollo (OPTI-ACUA)//ERDF/ ; MICIU and the European Social Fund, "The European Social Fund invests in your future"//Ram&#xf3;n y Cajal (Ref. RYC2018-025337-I) contract/ ; }, abstract = {Global aquaculture growth will most probably face specific conditions derived from climate change. In fact, the most severe impacts of these changes will be suffered by aquatic populations in restrictive circumstances, such as current aquaculture locations, which represent a perfect model to study global warming effects. Although the impact of temperature on fish reproduction has been characterized in many aspects, this study was focused on recreating more realistic models of global warming, particularly considering heatwave phenomena, in order to decipher its effects on male gametes (spermatozoa). For this purpose, thermal stress via a heatwave simulation (mimicking a natural occurring heatwave, from 24 to 30 °C) was induced in adult tench (Tinca tinca) males and compared with a control group (55.02 ± 16.44 g of average body wet weight). The impact of the thermal stress induced by this climate change event was assessed using cellular and molecular approaches. After the heatwave recreation, a multiparametric analysis of sperm quality, including some traditional parameters (such as sperm motility) and new ones (focus on redox balance and sperm quality biomarkers), was performed. Although sperm concentration and the volume produced were not affected, the results showed a significant deleterious effect on motility parameters (e.g., reduced progressive motility and total motility during the first minute post-activation). Furthermore, the sperm produced under the thermal stress induced by this heatwave simulation exhibited an increased ROS content in spermatic cells, confirming the negative effect that this thermal stress model (heatwave recreation) might have had on sperm quality. More importantly, the expression of some known sperm quality and fertilization markers was decreased in males exposed to thermal stress. This present study not only unveils the potential effects of climate change in contemporary and future fish farming populations (and their underlying mechanisms) but also provides insights on how to mitigate and/or avoid thermal stress due to heatwave events.}, }
@article {pmid38473057, year = {2024}, author = {Ma, Q and Wan, L and Shi, S and Wang, Z}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Three Rare Salamanders (Liua shihi, Pseudohynobius jinfo, and Tylototriton wenxianensis) in Chongqing, China, and Their Conservation Implications.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani14050672}, pmid = {38473057}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {sxxycq-2021-086//Chongqing Municipal National Key Project for the Supplementary Survey of Protected Terrestrial Wildlife/ ; }, abstract = {The Wushan Salamander (Liua shihi), Jinfo Salamander (Pseudohynobius jinfo), and Wenxian Knobby Salamander (Tylototriton wenxianensis) are rare national Class II protected wild animals in China. We performed MaxEnt modeling to predict and analyze the potential distribution and trends of these species in Chongqing under current and future climate conditions. Species distribution data were primarily obtained from field surveys, supplemented by museum collections and the existing literature. These efforts yielded 636 records, including 43 for P. jinfo, 23 for T. wenxianensis, and 570 for L. shihi. Duplicate records within the same 100 m × 100 m grid cell were removed using ENMTools, resulting in 10, 12, and 58 valid distribution points for P. jinfo, T. wenxianensis, and L. shihi, respectively. The optimization of feature class parameters (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM) were applied using R package "ENMeval 2.0" to establish the optimal model with MaxEnt. The refined models were applied to simulate the suitable distribution areas for the three species. The results indicate that the current suitable habitat area for L. shihi accounted for 9.72% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality. It is projected that, by 2050, the proportion of suitable habitat will increase to 12.54% but will decrease to 11.98% by 2070 and further decline to 8.80% by 2090. The current suitable habitat area for P. jinfo accounted for 1.08% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality, which is expected to decrease to 0.31%% by 2050, 0.20% by 2070, and 0.07% by 2090. The current suitable habitat area for T. wenxianensis accounted for 0.81% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality, which is anticipated to decrease to 0.37% by 2050, 0.21% by 2070, and 0.06% by 2090. Human disturbance, climate variables, and habitat characteristics are the primary factors influencing the distribution of three salamander species in Chongqing. The proximity to roads significantly impacts L. shihi, while climate conditions mainly affect P. jinfo, and the distance to water sources is crucial for T. wenxianensis. The following suggestions were made based on key variables identified for each species: (1) For L. shihi, it is imperative to minimize human disturbances and preserve areas without roads and the existing vegetation within nature reserves to ensure their continued existence. (2) For P. jinfo, the conservation of high-altitude habitats is of utmost importance, along with the reduction in disturbances caused by roads to maintain the species' ecological niche. (3) For T. wenxianensis, the protection of aquatic habitats is crucial. Additionally, efforts to mitigate the impacts of road construction and enhance public awareness are essential for the preservation of this species and the connectivity of its habitats.}, }
@article {pmid38473046, year = {2024}, author = {Marín Navas, C and Delgado Bermejo, JV and McLean, AK and León Jurado, JM and Camacho Vallejo, ME and Navas González, FJ}, title = {Modeling Climate Change Effects on Genetic Diversity of an Endangered Horse Breed Using Canonical Correlations.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani14050659}, pmid = {38473046}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033//European Union/ ; }, abstract = {The historical increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events in Spain during the last thirty years makes it a perfect location for the evaluation of climate change. Modeling the effects of climate change on domestic animals' genetic diversity may help to anticipate challenging situations. However, animal populations' short life cycle and patent lack of historical information during extended periods of time drastically compromise the evaluation of climate change effects. Locally adapted breeds' gene pool is the base for their improved resilience and plasticity in response to climate change's extreme climatic conditions. The preservation of these domestic resources offers selection alternatives to breeders who seek such improved adaptability. The Spanish endangered autochthonous Hispano-Arabian horse breed is perfectly adapted to the conditions of the territory where it was created, developed, and widespread worldwide. The possibility to trace genetic diversity in the Hispano-Arabian breed back around seven decades and its global ubiquity make this breed an idoneous reference subject to act as a model for other international populations. Climate change's shaping effects on the genetic diversity of the Hispano-Arabian horse breed's historical population were monitored from 1950 to 2019 and evaluated. Wind speed, gust speed, or barometric pressure have greater repercussions than extreme temperatures on genetic diversity. Extreme climate conditions, rather than average modifications of climate, may push breeders/owners to implement effective strategies in the short to medium term, but the effect will be plausible in the long term due to breed sustainability and enhanced capacity of response to extreme climate events. When extreme climatic conditions occur, breeders opt for mating highly diverse unrelated individuals, avoiding the production of a large number of offspring. People in charge of domestic population conservation act as catalyzers of the regulatory changes occurring during breeds' climate change adaptive process and may identify genes conferring their animals with greater adaptability but still maintaining enhanced performance. This model assists in determining how owners of endangered domestic populations should plan their breeding strategies, seeking the obtention of animals more resilient and adapted to climate-extreme conditions. This efficient alternative is focused on the obtention of increased profitability from this population and in turn ensuring their sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid38472589, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, Y and Wang, Y}, title = {Retraction Note: The green wave for climate: overcoming financial intermediation challenges in climate change mitigation through credit subsidies.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-024-32883-0}, pmid = {38472589}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid38472400, year = {2024}, author = {Li, L and Chen, Z and Wang, B and Fan, J and Lu, T and Lv, K}, title = {Response of upper tropospheric water vapor to global warming and ENSO.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {5995}, pmid = {38472400}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {No. 20202BABL213033//Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation/ ; No. SKLGED2021-2-2//State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth's Dynamics/ ; No. DHBK2018006//PhD early development program of East China University of Technology/ ; No. 41904031//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; No. 42374040//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; No. 42061077//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {The upper tropospheric water vapor is a key component of Earth's climate. Understanding variations in upper tropospheric water vapor and identifying its influencing factors is crucial for enhancing our comprehension of global climate change. While many studies have shown the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming on water vapor, how they affect the upper tropospheric water vapor remains unclear. Long-term, high-precision ERA5 specific humidity data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provided the data foundation for this study. On this basis, we successfully obtained the patterns of global warming (Independent Component 1, IC1) and ENSO (Independent Component 2, IC2) by employing the strategy of independent component analysis (ICA) combined with non-parametric optimal dimension selection to investigate the upper tropospheric water vapor variations and responses to ENSO and global warming. The results indicate that global warming and ENSO are the primary factors contributing to water vapor variations in the upper troposphere, achieving the significant correlations of 0.87 and 0.61 with water vapor anomalies respectively. Together, they account for 86% of the global interannual variations in water vapor. Consistent with previous studies, our findings also find positive anomalies in upper tropospheric water vapor during El Niño years and negative anomalies during La Niña years. Moreover, the influence extent of ENSO on upper tropospheric water vapor varies with the changing seasons.}, }
@article {pmid38472196, year = {2024}, author = {Klein, SG and Roch, C and Duarte, CM}, title = {Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2224}, pmid = {38472196}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {BAS\1\1071-01-01 awarded to CMD//King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)/ ; BAS\1\1071-01-01 awarded to CMD//King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)/ ; BAS\1\1071-01-01 awarded to CMD//King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.}, }
@article {pmid38471874, year = {2024}, author = {Xu, Y and Pan, YC and Zou, B and Zheng, ZW and Guo, ZD}, title = {[Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Growing Season of Vegetation Gross Primary Productivity in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {45}, number = {3}, pages = {1615-1628}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.202304152}, pmid = {38471874}, issn = {0250-3301}, abstract = {Quantitatively determining the direct, indirect, and comprehensive effects of climatic factors on the growing season of the vegetation GPP (GPPGS) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River at the regional and vegetation type scales can provide a scientific basis for the management and restoration of regional vegetation resources under the background of global climate change. Using MODIS GPP data, meteorological data, and vegetation type data, combined with Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall significance test, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the GPPGS in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were investigated at different temporal and spatial scales. Path analysis was used to further reveal the direct, indirect, and comprehensive effects of climate factors on GPPGS variation in different vegetation types. The results showed that:① from 2000 to 2021, the vegetation GPPGS in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a rising rate (in terms of C, same below) of 2.70 g·(m[2]·a)[-1] (P<0.01). The GPPGS of different vegetation types all showed a significant upward trend (P<0.01), with shrubs having the highest upward rate of 3.31 g·(m[2]·a)[-1] and cultivated vegetation having the lowest upward rate of 2.54 g·(m[2]·a)[-1]. ② The proportion of the area with an upward trend in GPPGS in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 88.11%. The proportion of the area with an upward trend in GPPGS was greater than 84% for all different vegetation types, with shrubs (49.76%) and cultivated vegetation (44.36%) having significantly higher proportions of the area with an upward trend than that in other vegetation types. ③ The path analysis results showed that precipitation and the maximum temperature had a significant positive direct effect on vegetation GPPGS (P<0.05), whereas solar radiation had a non-significant positive effect (P ≥ 0.05). The indirect effects of maximum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation on vegetation GPPGS were all non-significantly negative (P ≥ 0.05). Under the combined effects of direct and indirect influences, precipitation and maximum temperature had a non-significant positive effect on vegetation GPPGS (P ≥ 0.05), whereas solar radiation had a non-significant negative effect on vegetation GPPGS (P ≥ 0.05). Among different vegetation types, precipitation was the main climate factor affecting the changes in GPPGS of cultivated vegetation, whereas the maximum temperature was the main climate factor affecting the changes in GPPGS of coniferous forests, broad-leaved forests, shrubs, and grasslands. ④ The changes in vegetation GPPGS in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were mainly influenced by the direct effects of maximum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, with the direct effect of precipitation dominating 56.72% of the changes in GPPGS. The research results can provide a reference for quantifying the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and formulating ecological restoration governance policies tailored to local conditions under the background of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38467690, year = {2024}, author = {Barcellos, C and Matos, V and Lana, RM and Lowe, R}, title = {Climate change, thermal anomalies, and the recent progression of dengue in Brazil.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {5948}, pmid = {38467690}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {224694/Z/21/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Dengue is rapidly expanding its transmission area across Brazil and much of South America. In this study, data-mining techniques were used to identify climatic and demographic indicators that could explain the recent (2014-2020) and simultaneous trends of expansion and exacerbation of the incidence in some regions of Brazil. The previous circulation of the virus (dengue incidence rates between 2007 and 2013), urbanization, and the occurrence of temperature anomalies for a prolonged period were the main factors that led to increased incidence of dengue in the central region of Brazil. Regions with high altitudes, which previously acted as a barrier for dengue transmission, became areas of high incidence rates. The algorithm that was developed during this study can be utilized to assess future climate scenarios and plan preventive actions.}, }
@article {pmid38467431, year = {2024}, author = {Seehusen, DA and Bowman, MA and Britz, J and Ledford, CJW}, title = {A Focus on Climate Change and How It Impacts Family Medicine.}, journal = {Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine : JABFM}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.3122/jabfm.2023.230448R0}, pmid = {38467431}, issn = {1558-7118}, abstract = {This issue highlights climate change, its effects on patients, and actions clinicians can take to make a difference for their patients and communities. The issue also includes several reports on current trends in family physician practice patterns and the influence of practice structure. Four articles focus on controlled or illicit substances. Noteworthy among them is the description of an innovative yet simple device that allows patients to safely discard unused opioids. Other research covers adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), smoking cessation programs, and the impact of Medicare reimbursement rates on influenza vaccination.}, }
@article {pmid38467362, year = {2024}, author = {Zubir, MA and Kamyab, H and Vasseghian, Y and Hashim, H and Zhi, OM and Abdullah, SR and Yusuf, M and Kapran, B and Kori, AH and Nasri, NS and Hoang, HY}, title = {Optimizing refuse-derived fuel production from scheduled wastes through Aspen plus simulation: Perspective in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118617}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118617}, pmid = {38467362}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {This study aims to improve the quality of fuel with high calorific value namely Sfuel - a commercial high-quality refuse-derived fuel (RDF) from hazardous waste via modifying the process design and operating parameters of thermal conversion process. The study analyses key parameters of RDF quality, such as calorific value and heavy metal content, before and after process modifications based on the combination of experimental and simulation using Aspen Plus. In this study, the temperature and pressure of the simulation system are varied from 100 to 700 °C and from 1 to 5 bar, respectively. Findings indicate that there are a total of eleven heavy metals and 179 volatile compounds in the "Sfuels". The quality of the targeted product is greatly improved by the metal evaporation at high temperatures and pressures. However, the calorific value of RDF significantly decreases at 700 °C due to a large amount of the carbon content being evaporated. Although the carbon content at high temperatures is significantly lost, the heat from the vapour stream reactor outlet, which is reused to preheat the nitrogen gas stream supplied to the system, reduces energy consumption while improving the thermal conversion efficiency of the system. Besides, low pressure along with high temperature are not the optimal conditions for quality Sfuels improvement by thermal conversion. Results also indicate that electric heating is more economically efficient than natural gas heating. This study contributes to the context of climate change by providing insights into the optimization of RDF production, which can help to reduce the environmental impact of waste disposal and maximizing energy efficiency.}, }
@article {pmid38466843, year = {2024}, author = {Armour, KC and Proistosescu, C and Dong, Y and Hahn, LC and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E and Pauling, AG and Jnglin Wills, RC and Andrews, T and Stuecker, MF and Po-Chedley, S and Mitevski, I and Forster, PM and Gregory, JM}, title = {Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {12}, pages = {e2312093121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2312093121}, pmid = {38466843}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {AGS-1752796//NSF/ ; NA20OAR4310391//NOAA/ ; DE-SC0022110//Department of Energy/ ; }, abstract = {The observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR)-key metrics of the global climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing. Using CMIP5/6 models, we show that the inter-model relationship between warming and these climate sensitivity metrics (the basis for the constraint) arises from a similarity in transient and equilibrium warming patterns within the models, producing an effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) governing recent warming that is comparable to the value of ECS governing long-term warming under CO[Formula: see text] forcing. However, CMIP5/6 historical simulations do not reproduce observed warming patterns. When driven by observed patterns, even high ECS models produce low EffCS values consistent with the observed global warming rate. The inability of CMIP5/6 models to reproduce observed warming patterns thus results in a bias in the modeled relationship between recent global warming and climate sensitivity. Correcting for this bias means that observed warming is consistent with wide ranges of ECS and TCR extending to higher values than previously recognized. These findings are corroborated by energy balance model simulations and coupled model (CESM1-CAM5) simulations that better replicate observed patterns via tropospheric wind nudging or Antarctic meltwater fluxes. Because CMIP5/6 models fail to simulate observed warming patterns, proposed warming-based constraints on ECS, TCR, and projected global warming are biased low. The results reinforce recent findings that the unique pattern of observed warming has slowed global-mean warming over recent decades and that how the pattern will evolve in the future represents a major source of uncertainty in climate projections.}, }
@article {pmid38464763, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, JX and Liu, XQ}, title = {Climate change, ambient air pollution, and students' mental health.}, journal = {World journal of psychiatry}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {204-209}, pmid = {38464763}, issn = {2220-3206}, abstract = {The impact of global climate change and air pollution on mental health has become a crucial public health issue. Increased public awareness of health, advancements in medical diagnosis and treatment, the way media outlets report environmental changes and the variation in social resources affect psychological responses and adaptation methods to climate change and air pollution. In the context of climate change, extreme weather events seriously disrupt people's living environments, and unstable educational environments lead to an increase in mental health issues for students. Air pollution affects students' mental health by increasing the incidence of diseases while decreasing contact with nature, leading to problems such as anxiety, depression, and decreased cognitive function. We call for joint efforts to reduce pollutant emissions at the source, improve energy structures, strengthen environmental monitoring and gover-nance, increase attention to the mental health issues of students, and help student groups build resilience; by establishing public policies, enhancing social support and adjusting lifestyles and habits, we can help students cope with the constantly changing environment and maintain a good level of mental health. Through these comprehensive measures, we can more effectively address the challenges of global climate change and air pollution and promote the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.}, }
@article {pmid38463879, year = {2024}, author = {Bagh, T and Fuwei, J and Khan, MA}, title = {From risk to resilience: Climate change risk, ESG investments engagement and Firm's value.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {e26757}, pmid = {38463879}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {In line with Sustainable Development Goals, firms are increasingly incorporating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations in their investment strategies. The effect of firms' climate change risk (FCCR) on firms' Value (FV), and how such investment engagements moderate this effect, is a prominent subject of debate among scholars, investors, and policymakers. To examine these dynamics, we analyze a dataset of 1771 United States (US)-listed firms from 2006 to 2021 to quantify the effect of FCCR on FV. We use the generalized method of moments model to achieve our objectives. The major findings are summarized as follows: First, FCCR has a negative and significant effect on FV. Second, ESG investments positively and significantly influence FV. Third, ESG investments significantly moderate the FCCR-FV relationship. We confirm our estimations are robust under different estimations strategies. Finally, this article provides a fresh perspective on risk management with significant policy implications for investors, managers, and regulators in the US. We suggest that ESG investing is an important strategic catalyst for US firms.}, }
@article {pmid38462088, year = {2024}, author = {Panneerselvam, B and Charoenlerkthawin, W and Ekkawatpanit, C and Namsai, M and Bidorn, B and Saravanan, S and Lu, XX}, title = {Climate change influences on the streamflow and sediment supply to the Chao Phraya River basin, Thailand.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118638}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118638}, pmid = {38462088}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {This study investigates the effects of climate change on the sediment loads of the Ping and Wang River basins and their contribution to the sediment dynamics of the lower Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand. The various climate models under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios are employed to project sediment loads in future. The findings indicate a significant increase in river flow approximately 20% in the Ping River (PR) and 35% in the Wang River (WR) by the mid-21st century and continuing into the distant future. Consequently, this is expected to result in sediment loads up to 0.33 × 10[6] t/y in the PR and 0.28 × 10[6] t/y in the WR. This escalation is particularly notable under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which assumes higher greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, the research provides insights into the potential positive implications for the Chao Phraya Delta's coastal management. Without further damming in the Ping and Wang River basins, the anticipated rise in sediment supply could aid in mitigating the adverse effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise, which have historically caused extensive shoreline retreat in the delta region, particularly around Bangkok Metropolis. The paper concludes that proactive adaptation strategies are required to manage the expected changes in the hydrological and sediment regimes to protect vulnerable coastal zones and ensure the sustainable management of the Chao Phraya River Basin in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38463717, year = {2022}, author = {Zavaleta-Cortijo, C and Cade, J and Ford, J and Greenwood, DC and Carcamo, C and Silvera-Ccallo, R and Fernandez-Neyra, C and Lancha-Rucoba, G and Pizango-Tangoa, M and Pizango-Inuma, R and Chanchari-Huiñapi, J and Velez-Quevedo, J and Inuma-Tangoa, N and Antazu, T and Miranda-Cuadros, M and Aparco, JP and Aro-Guardia, P and Verastegui, M and Morales-Ancajima, V and Bressan, T and Miranda, JJ}, title = {Does food biodiversity protect against malnutrition and favour the resilience to climate change-related events in Amazon Indigenous communities? A protocol for a mixed methods study.}, journal = {Wellcome open research}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {246}, pmid = {38463717}, issn = {2398-502X}, abstract = {Background : Undernutrition is projected to be a major consequence of climate change. Biodiversity could enhance climate change resilience by improving nutritional outcomes and providing healthy food resources during and/or after climate-related events. For Indigenous populations who currently base their diet on local biodiversity, rapid climate changes may affect their ability to produce, access or gather food and consequently impact their nutritional status. There is a knowledge gap regarding whether nutritional status among Indigenous populations is better among those who consume a diet with greater biodiversity than those who have a diet with low biodiversity. Objective : This study aims to investigate the role of food biodiversity (FBD) in nutritional resilience to extreme flooding events of Shawi Amazon Indigenous adults living in Peruvian communities that have experienced extreme floods in the past five years. Methods : This study will use a mixed-method sequential explanatory design. The quantitative component includes a cross-sectional survey to assess the association between food biodiversity (FBD) and the prevalence of anaemia in adults aged 15 to 60 years old (n=365). Anaemia will be evaluated using blood hemoglobin and serum ferritin. FBD will be measured with a food frequency questionnaire and a 24-hour dietary recall. Soil-transmitted helminth infections, malaria, and inflammatory biomarkers will also be evaluated. The qualitative component will include a community-based participatory approach to investigate the role of FBD in the responses to extreme floods. Male (n=14) and female (n=14) participants, previously identified in the quantitative phase with high and low levels of FBD, will be invited to participate in a Photovoice activity and semi-structured interviews. A analytical framework for climate change resilience will be used to integrate the data. Discussion : Findings will be integrated to identify nutritional resilience indicators that can inform adaptative interventions to changing climatic conditions in the Amazon and that respect Indigenous worldviews.}, }
@article {pmid38461120, year = {2024}, author = {Ocampo-Peñuela, N}, title = {Context-dependent bird body mass responses to climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2024.02.010}, pmid = {38461120}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {Previous studies demonstrated decreasing body size of birds in response to rising temperatures. Recently, Neate-Clegg et al. documented that birds have been becoming larger in an Afromontane forest over four decades. This highlights the complexity of morphological responses to climate, the importance of context, and the need to study phenomena in a diversity of regions.}, }
@article {pmid38461016, year = {2024}, author = {Gupta, S and Couillard, S and Digby, G and Tse, SM and Green, S and Penz, E}, title = {Climate Change and Inhaler Selection in Patients With Respiratory Disease.}, journal = {Chest}, volume = {165}, number = {3}, pages = {503-506}, doi = {10.1016/j.chest.2023.09.025}, pmid = {38461016}, issn = {1931-3543}, }
@article {pmid38460688, year = {2024}, author = {Simantiris, N}, title = {The impact of climate change on sea turtles: Current knowledge, scientometrics, and mitigation strategies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171354}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171354}, pmid = {38460688}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Sea turtles are one of the most significant groups of marine species, playing a key role in the sustainability and conservation of marine ecosystems and the food chain. These emblematic species are threatened by several natural and anthropogenic pressures, and climate change is increasingly reported as one of the most important threats to sea turtles, affecting sea turtles at all stages of their life cycle and at both their marine and coastal habitats. The effect of climate change is expressed as global warming, sea-level rise, extreme storms, and alterations in predation and diseases' patterns, posing a potentially negative impact on sea turtles. In this systematic review, the author presented the current knowledge and research outcomes on the impact of climate change on sea turtles. Moreover, this study determined trends and hotspots in keywords, country collaborations, authors, and publications in the field through a scientometric analysis. Finally, this article reviewed proposed mitigation strategies by researchers, marine protected area (MPA) managers, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to reduce the impact of climate change on the conservation of sea turtles.}, }
@article {pmid38460328, year = {2024}, author = {Guo, J and Li, FY and Tuvshintogtokh, I and Niu, J and Li, H and Shen, B and Wang, Y}, title = {Past dynamics and future prediction of the impacts of land use cover change and climate change on landscape ecological risk across the Mongolian plateau.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {355}, number = {}, pages = {120365}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120365}, pmid = {38460328}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate change are interconnected factors that affect the ecological environment. However, there is a lack of quantification of the impacts of LULC change and climate change on landscape ecological risk under different shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCP) on the Mongolian Plateau (MP). To fill this knowledge gap and understand the current and future challenges facing the MP's land ecological system, we conducted an evaluation and prediction of the effects of LULC change and climate change on landscape ecological risk using the landscape loss index model and random forest method, considering eight SSP-RCP coupling scenarios. Firstly, we selected MCD12Q1 as the optimal LULC product for studying landscape changes on the MP, comparing it with four other LULC products. We analyzed the diverging patterns of LULC change over the past two decades and observed significant differences between Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. The latter experienced more intense and extensive LULC change during this period, despite similar climate changes. Secondly, we assessed changes in landscape ecological risk and identified the main drivers of these changes over the past two decades using a landscape index model and random forest method. The highest-risk zone has gradually expanded, with a 30% increase compared to 2001. Lastly, we investigated different characteristics of LULC change under different scenarios by examining future LULC products simulated by the FLUS model. We also simulated the dynamics of landscape ecological risks under these scenarios and proposed an adaptive development strategy to promote sustainable development in the MP. In terms of the impact of climate change on landscape ecological risk, we found that under the same SSP scenario, increasing RCP emission concentrations significantly increased the areas with high landscape ecological risk while decreasing areas with low risk. By integrating quantitative assessments and scenario-based modeling, our study provides valuable insights for informing sustainable land management and policy decisions in the region.}, }
@article {pmid38459374, year = {2024}, author = {Chaikin, S and Riva, F and Marshall, KE and Lessard, JP and Belmaker, J}, title = {Marine fishes experiencing high-velocity range shifts may not be climate change winners.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38459374}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {RGPIN-2019-04239//Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology)/ ; 101060072//EC | European Commission - Executive Agency for SMEs | Competitiveness of Enterprises and Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (COSME)/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is driving the global redistribution of species. A common assumption is that rapid range shifts occur in tandem with overall stable or positive abundance trends throughout the range and thus these species may be considered as climate change 'winners'. However, although establishing the link between range shift velocities and population trends is crucial for predicting climate change impacts it has not been empirically tested. Using 2,572 estimates of changes in marine fish abundance spread across the world's oceans, we show that poleward range shifts are not necessarily associated with positive population trends. Species experiencing high-velocity range shifts seem to experience local population declines irrespective of the position throughout the species range. High range shift velocities of 17 km yr[-1] are associated with a 50% decrease in population sizes over a period of 10 yr, which is dramatic compared to the overall stable population trends in non-shifting species. This pattern, however, mostly occurs in populations located in the poleward, colder, portion of the species range. The lack of a positive association between poleward range shift velocities and population trends at the coldest portion of the range contrasts with the view that rapid range shifts safeguard against local population declines. Instead, our work suggests that marine fishes experiencing rapid range shifts could be more vulnerable to climatic change and therefore should be carefully assessed for conservation status.}, }
@article {pmid38459284, year = {2024}, author = {Li, L and Peng, Q and Li, Z and Cai, H}, title = {Evolution of drought characteristics and propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought under the influences of climate change and human activities.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38459284}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2021YFD1900700//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 52179046//National Natural Science of China/ ; }, abstract = {Understanding the propagation of agricultural droughts (AD) is important to comprehensively assess drought events and develop early warning systems. The present study aims to assess the impacts of climate change and human activities on drought characteristics and propagation from meteorological drought (MD) to AD in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) over the 1950-2021 period using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI). In total, the YRB was classified into three groups of catchments for spring wheat and four groups of catchments for winter wheat based on different human influence degrees (HId). In addition, the entire study period was divided into periods with natural (NP), low (LP), and high (HP) impacts of human activities, corresponding to 1950-1971, 1972-1995, and 1996-2021, respectively. The results demonstrated the significance and credibility of the application of the natural and human-impacted catchment comparison method for drought characteristics and propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought in the YRB. Winter wheat showed a more pronounced drying trend than spring wheat under both MD and AD. The results showed meteorological drought intensity (MDI) and agricultural drought intensity (ADI) intensified for spring and winter wheat in NP, with correspondingly a short propagation time, followed by those in the LP and HP in catchments minimally impacted by human activities. On the other hand, increases in the MDI and ADI, as well as in their times, for both spring and winter wheat were observed from the LP to the HP in all catchments. The MDI, ADI, and their propagation times for winter wheat generally showed greater fluctuations than those for spring wheat. Human activities increasingly prolonged the drought propagation time. In contrast, climate change insignificantly shortened the drought propagation time.}, }
@article {pmid38458942, year = {2024}, author = {Campos, L and Chimeno-Viñas, MM and Carretero-Gómez, J and Santos, L and Cabrera-Rayo, A and Valdez, PR and Gómez-Huelgas, R and , }, title = {Recommendations of the Spanish-Portuguese Internal Medicine services in the fight against climate change and environmental degradation.}, journal = {Revista clinica espanola}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.rceng.2024.02.005}, pmid = {38458942}, issn = {2254-8874}, abstract = {Facing the severity of the impact of climate change and environmental degradation on human health, 32 Internal Medicine societies, colleges, and associations of 29 Spanish and Portuguese-speaking countries issue a consensus document in which they call for the implication of doctors and all health professionals in the global fight against the causes of these changes. This commitment requires the cooperation of health-related organizations, elaboration and implementation of good environmental sustainability practices, greater awareness of professionals and population, promotion of education and research in this area, increasing climate resilience and environmental sustainability of health systems, combating inequalities and protecting the most vulnerable populations, adopting behaviors that protect the environment, and claiming Internal Medicine as a core specialty for empowerment of the health system to respond to these challenges.}, }
@article {pmid38456714, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Waterborne Diseases That Are Sensitive to Climate Variability and Climate Change.}, journal = {The Pediatric infectious disease journal}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {354}, doi = {10.1097/INF.0000000000004276}, pmid = {38456714}, issn = {1532-0987}, }
@article {pmid38455535, year = {2024}, author = {Haider, S and Karim, MR and Islam, MS and Megumi, TA and Rahnama, QS}, title = {Extreme weather events and Spatio-temporal characterization of climate change variables in Bangladesh during 1975-2019.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {e27118}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27118}, pmid = {38455535}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Bangladesh is susceptible to climate change, thus a detailed study, including the analyses of trends, sub-trends, extreme events and indices was conducted to obtain a complete picture of the climate change pattern in Bangladesh utilizing daily rainfall, maximum, minimum and average temperature data of 26 stations from 1975 to 2019 using R 4.0.2 software. For the trend analysis Mann Kendal (MK), modified Mann Kendall (mMK), Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Sen's slope methods were used. Sub-trend analysis was conducted using ITA. Standard Anomaly Index (SAI) has been used to identify the frequency and severity of extreme events. ClimPACT2 software was used to check the homogeneity and calculate the extremes of temperature and rainfall data. Our analysis showed that during the last four decades, climate variables changed their patterns and trend heterogeneously over Bangladesh. Most stations showed decremental rainfall trend when central part of the country showed a substantial decrease. The northern and central parts of the country showed significant growth of trend for annual average temperature. The temperature in the monsoon season increased, whereas those in dry season decreased. The rainfall and maximum temperature were inversely related during monsoon whereas during dry season both of them decrease. The pre-monsoon and post-monsoonal rainfall also showed decreasing trends, indicating prevailing drought conditions especially in northern and central parts of the country. The SAI analysis showed alternating drought and wet years in almost all the stations. In the past 20 years, the country's western region experienced more drought years than before whereas the coastal region experienced more wet years. The analysis of climate extreme indices suggests that, Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Hot Days (TX90P) and Hot Nights (TN90P) show significant increasing trend throughout the country. The agricultural productivity, water resource management and food security are anticipated to benefit from this study.}, }
@article {pmid38454541, year = {2024}, author = {Carlassara, M and Khorramnejad, A and Oker, H and Bahrami, R and Lozada-Chávez, AN and Mancini, MV and Quaranta, S and Body, MJA and Lahondère, C and Bonizzoni, M}, title = {Population-specific responses to developmental temperature in the arboviral vector Aedes albopictus: Implications for climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {e17226}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17226}, pmid = {38454541}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//2022J45MLL/ ; PE00000007//NextGeneration EU-MUR PNRR Extended Partnership/ ; }, abstract = {The increase of environmental temperature due to current global warming is not only favouring the expansion of the distribution range of many insect species, but it is also changing their phenology. Insect phenology is tightly linked to developmental timing, which is regulated by environmental temperatures. However, the degree to which the effects of developmental temperatures extend across developmental stages and their inter-stage relationships have not been thoroughly quantified in mosquitoes. Here, we used the mosquito Aedes albopictus, which is an aggressive invasive species and an arboviral vector, to study how developmental temperature influences fitness across developmental stages, thermal traits, energy reserves, transcriptome and Wolbachia prevalence in laboratory-reared populations originally collected from either temperate or tropical regions. We show that hatchability, larval and pupal viability and developmental speed are strongly influenced by temperature, and these effects extend to wing length, body mass, longevity and content of water, protein and lipids in adults in a population-specific manner. On the contrary, neither adult thermal preference nor heat resistance significantly change with temperature. Wolbachia density was generally lower in adult mosquitoes reared at 18°C than at other tested temperatures, and transcriptome analysis showed enrichment for functions linked to stress responses (i.e. cuticle proteins and chitin, cytochrome p450 and heat shock proteins) in mosquitoes reared at both 18 and 32°C. Our data showed an overall reduced vector fitness performance when mosquitoes were reared at 32°C, and the absence of isomorphy in the relationship between developmental stages and temperature in the laboratory population deriving from larvae collected in northern Italy. Altogether, these results have important implications for reliable model projections of the invasion potentials of Ae. albopictus and its epidemiological impact.}, }
@article {pmid38454097, year = {2024}, author = {Hutmacher, F and Reichardt, R and Appel, M}, title = {Motivated reasoning about climate change and the influence of Numeracy, Need for Cognition, and the Dark Factor of Personality.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {5615}, pmid = {38454097}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Human information processing is not always rational but influenced by prior attitudes, a phenomenon commonly known as motivated reasoning. We conducted two studies (N1 = 556, N2 = 1198; UK samples) investigating motivated reasoning in the context of climate change with a focus on individual differences as potential moderating factors. While previous research investigated motivated reasoning regarding the debate whether climate change is anthropogenic, we focused on current discourses about the effectiveness of different countermeasures. To this end, participants evaluated fictitious scientific data on the effectiveness of regulations to reduce CO2 emissions. In both studies, participants exhibited motivated reasoning as indicated by the observation that prior attitudes about CO2 reduction policies predicted evaluation of the scientific data. The degree of motivated reasoning was not related to individual difference variables, namely the ability to understand and reason with numbers (Numeracy), the willingness to show this ability (Need for Cognition), and the tendency to maximize one's individual utility (Dark Factor of Personality). However, numeracy was associated with a less biased interpretation of the presented information. Our research demonstrates that motivated reasoning is a general phenomenon, and points to numerical training as one way to improve reasoning.}, }
@article {pmid38456148, year = {2022}, author = {Masri, S and Jin, Y and Wu, J}, title = {Compound Risk of Air Pollution and Heat Days and the Influence of Wildfire by SES across California, 2018-2020: Implications for Environmental Justice in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Climate (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/cli10100145}, pmid = {38456148}, issn = {2225-1154}, abstract = {Major wildfires and heatwaves have begun to increase in frequency throughout much of the United States, particularly in western states such as California, causing increased risk to public health. Air pollution is exacerbated by both wildfires and warmer temperatures, thus adding to such risk. With climate change and the continued increase in global average temperatures, the frequency of major wildfires, heat days, and unhealthy air pollution episodes is projected to increase, resulting in the potential for compounding risks. Risks will likely vary by region and may disproportionately impact low-income communities and communities of color. In this study, we processed daily particulate matter (PM) data from over 18,000 low-cost PurpleAir sensors, along with gridMET daily maximum temperature data and government-compiled wildfire perimeter data from 2018-2020 in order to examine the occurrence of compound risk (CR) days (characterized by high temperature and high PM2.5) at the census tract level in California, and to understand how such days have been impacted by the occurrence of wildfires. Using American Community Survey data, we also examined the extent to which CR days were correlated with household income, race/ethnicity, education, and other socioeconomic factors at the census tract level. Results showed census tracts with a higher frequency of CR days to have statistically higher rates of poverty and unemployment, along with high proportions of child residents and households without computers. The frequency of CR days and elevated daily PM2.5 concentrations appeared to be strongly related to the occurrence of nearby wildfires, with over 20% of days with sensor-measured average PM2.5 > 35 μg/m[3] showing a wildfire within a 100 km radius and over two-thirds of estimated CR days falling on such days with a nearby wildfire. Findings from this study are important to policymakers and government agencies who preside over the allocation of state resources as well as organizations seeking to empower residents and establish climate resilient communities.}, }
@article {pmid38455276, year = {2022}, author = {Islam, MR and Bulut, U and Feria-Arroyo, TP and Tyshenko, MG and Oraby, T}, title = {Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Cervid Chronic Wasting Disease in Semi-Arid South Texas.}, journal = {Frontiers in epidemiology}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {889280}, doi = {10.3389/fepid.2022.889280}, pmid = {38455276}, issn = {2674-1199}, abstract = {Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a spongiform encephalopathy disease caused by the transmission of infectious prion agents. CWD is a fatal disease that affects wild and farmed cervids in North America with few cases reported overseas. Social interaction of cervids, feeding practices by wildlife keepers and climate effects on the environmental carrying capacity all can affect CWD transmission in deer. Wildlife deer game hunting is economically important to the semi-arid South Texas region and is affected by climate change. In this paper, we model and investigate the effect of climate change on the spread of CWD using typical climate scenarios. We use a system of impulsive differential equations to depict the transmission of CWD between different age groups and gender of cervids. The carrying capacity and contact rates are assumed to depend on climate. Due to the polygamy of bucks, we use mating rates that depend on the number of bucks and does. We analyze the stability of the model and use simulations to study the effect of harvesting (culling) on eradicating the disease, given the climate of South Texas. We use typical climate change scenarios based on published data and our assumptions. For the climate indicator, we calculated and utilized the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We found that climate change might hinder the efforts to reduce and effectively manage CWD as it becomes endemic to South Texas. The model shows the extinction of the deer population from this region is a likely outcome.}, }
@article {pmid38453382, year = {2024}, author = {Martinez, PA and Teixeira, IBDF and Siqueira-Silva, T and da Silva, FFB and Lima, LAG and Chaves-Silveira, J and Olalla-Tárraga, M&#xc5; and Gutiérrez, JM and Amado, TF}, title = {Climate change-related distributional range shifts of venomous snakes: a predictive modelling study of effects on public health and biodiversity.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {e163-e171}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00005-6}, pmid = {38453382}, issn = {2542-5196}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to have profound effects on the distribution of venomous snake species, including reductions in biodiversity and changes in patterns of envenomation of humans and domestic animals. We estimated the effect of future climate change on the distribution of venomous snake species and potential knock-on effects on biodiversity and public health.<br><br>METHODS: We built species distribution models based on the geographical distribution of 209 medically relevant venomous snake species (WHO categories 1 and 2) and present climatic variables, and used these models to project the potential distribution of species in 2070. We incorporated different future climatic scenarios into the model, which we used to estimate the loss and gain of areas potentially suitable for each species. We also assessed which countries were likely to gain new species in the future as a result of species crossing national borders. We integrated the species distribution models with different socioeconomic scenarios to estimate which countries would become more vulnerable to snakebites in 2070.<br><br>FINDINGS: Our results suggest that substantial losses of potentially suitable areas for the survival of most venomous snake species will occur by 2070. However, some species of high risk to public health could gain climatically suitable areas for habitation. Countries such as Niger, Namibia, China, Nepal, and Myanmar could potentially gain several venomous snake species from neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the combination of an increase in climatically suitable areas and socioeconomic factors (including low-income and high rural populations) means that southeast Asia and Africa (and countries including Uganda, Kenya, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand in particular) could have increased vulnerability to snakebites in the future, with potential effects on public human and veterinary health.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Loss of venomous snake biodiversity in low-income countries will affect ecosystem functioning and result in the loss of valuable genetic resources. Additionally, climate change will create new challenges to public health in several low-income countries, particularly in southeast Asia and Africa. The international community needs to increase its efforts to counter the effects of climate change in the coming decades.<br><br>FUNDING: German Research Foundation, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico, Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n de Espa&#xf1;a, European Regional Development Fund.}, }
@article {pmid38452750, year = {2024}, author = {Bowman, WS and Schmidt, RJ and Sanghar, GK and Thompson Iii, GR and Ji, H and Zeki, AA and Haczku, A}, title = {"Air That Once Was Breath" Part 1: Wildfire-Smoke-Induced Mechanisms of Airway Inflammation - "Climate Change, Allergy and Immunology" Special IAAI Article Collection: Collegium Internationale Allergologicum Update 2023.}, journal = {International archives of allergy and immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-17}, doi = {10.1159/000536578}, pmid = {38452750}, issn = {1423-0097}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Wildfires are a global concern due to their wide-ranging environmental, economic, and public health impacts. Climate change contributes to an increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires making smoke exposure a more significant and recurring health concern for individuals with airway diseases. Some of the most prominent effects of wildfire smoke exposure are asthma exacerbations and allergic airway sensitization. Likely due to the delayed recognition of its health impacts in comparison with cigarette smoke and industrial or traffic-related air pollution, research on the composition, the mechanisms of toxicity, and the cellular/molecular pathways involved is poor or non-existent.<br><br>SUMMARY: This review discusses potential underlying pathological mechanisms of wildfire-smoke-related allergic airway disease and asthma. We focused on major gaps in understanding the role of wildfire smoke composition in the development of airway disease and the known and potential mechanisms involving cellular and molecular players of oxidative injury at the epithelial barrier in airway inflammation. We examine how PM2.5, VOCs, O3, endotoxin, microbes, and toxic gases may affect oxidative stress and inflammation in the respiratory mucosal barrier. We discuss the role of AhR in mediating smoke's effects in alarmin release and IL-17A production and how glucocorticoid responsiveness may be impaired by IL-17A-induced signaling and epigenetic changes leading to steroid-resistant severe airway inflammation.<br><br>KEY MESSAGE: Effective mitigation of wildfire-smoke-related respiratory health effects would require comprehensive research efforts aimed at a better understanding of the immune regulatory effects of wildfire smoke in respiratory health and disease.}, }
@article {pmid38452511, year = {2024}, author = {Katsaros, K and Marggraf, C and Ebi, KL and Buyana, K and Hashizume, M and Lung, SC and Murray, V and Thiam, S and Huang-Lachmann, JT}, title = {Exploring interconnections: A comprehensive multi-country analysis of climate change, energy demand, long-term care, and health of older adults.}, journal = {Maturitas}, volume = {184}, number = {}, pages = {107961}, doi = {10.1016/j.maturitas.2024.107961}, pmid = {38452511}, issn = {1873-4111}, abstract = {Challenges faced by many countries are energy insecurity, climate change, and the health and long-term care of growing numbers of older people. These challenges are increasingly intersecting with rising energy prices, aging populations, and an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. This paper gives a deeper understanding of the current and predicted interconnections among these challenges through narrative-driven content and thematic analysis from workshops with a diverse group of international stakeholders from the Global North and Global South. Narratives emerged highlighting a complex nexus of interconnections and presenting critical action areas. Targeted local and global policies and interventions are needed to alleviate stress on health systems, encourage the integrated uptake of clean energy sources, and uphold social justice across all economies. Professionals can use this work to inform the design and implementation of effective interventions and increase the resilience of older adults by better preparing for systemic risks.}, }
@article {pmid38453519, year = {2024}, author = {Kaseya, J and Dereje, N and Tajudeen, R and Ngongo, AN and Ndembi, N and Fallah, MP}, title = {Climate change and malaria, dengue and cholera outbreaks in Africa: a call for concerted actions.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015370}, pmid = {38453519}, issn = {2059-7908}, }
@article {pmid38452300, year = {2024}, author = {Fielding, JE}, title = {Our Catastrophe in Waiting: Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e1-e3}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2024.307575}, pmid = {38452300}, issn = {1541-0048}, }
@article {pmid38452067, year = {2024}, author = {Malanoski, CM and Farnsworth, A and Lunt, DJ and Valdes, PJ and Saupe, EE}, title = {Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {383}, number = {6687}, pages = {1130-1134}, doi = {10.1126/science.adj5763}, pmid = {38452067}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite its importance in future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits versus extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change is necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough.}, }
@article {pmid38451371, year = {2024}, author = {Torsoni, GB and de Oliveira Aparecido, LE and Lorençone, PA and Lorençone, JA and de Lima, RF and de Souza Rolim, G}, title = {Climatic zoning of yerba mate and climate change projections: a CMIP6 approach.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38451371}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {Yerba mate (Ilex paraguariensis) is renowned for its nutritional and pharmaceutical attributes. A staple in South American (SA) culture, it serves as the foundation for several traditional beverages. Significantly, the pharmaceutical domain has secured numerous patents associated with this plant's distinctive properties. This research delves into the climatic influence on yerba mate by leveraging the CMIP6 model projections to assess potential shifts brought about by climate change. Given its economic and socio-cultural significance, comprehending how climate change might sway yerba mate's production and distribution is pivotal. The CMIP6 model offers insights into future conditions, pinpointing areas that are either conducive or adverse for yerba mate cultivation. Our findings will be instrumental in crafting adaptive and mitigative strategies, thereby directing sustainable production planning for yerba mate. The core objective of this study was to highlight zones optimal for Ilex paraguariensis cultivation across its major producers: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, under CMIP6's climate change forecasts. Our investigation encompassed major producing zones spanning the North, Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, and South of Brazil, along with the aforementioned countries. A conducive environment for this crop's growth features air temperatures between 21 to 25 °C and a minimum precipitation of 1200 mm per cycle. We sourced the current climate data from the WorldClim version 2 platform. Meanwhile, projections for future climatic parameters were derived from WorldClim 2.1, utilizing the IPSL-CM6A-LR model with a refined 30-s spatial resolution. We took into account four distinct socio-economic pathways over varying timelines: 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2081, and 2081-2100. Geographic information system data aided in the spatial interpolation across Brazil, applying the Kriging technique. The outcomes revealed a majority of the examined areas as non-conducive for yerba mate cultivation, with a scanty 12.25% (1.5 million km[2]) deemed favorable. Predominantly, these propitious regions lie in southern Brazil and Uruguay, the present-day primary producers of yerba mate. Alarming was the discovery that forthcoming climatic scenarios predominantly forecast detrimental shifts, characterized by escalating average air temperatures and diminishing rainfall. These trends portend a decline in suitable cultivation regions for yerba mate.}, }
@article {pmid38450925, year = {2024}, author = {Vacquié-Garcia, J and Spitz, J and Hammill, M and Stenson, GB and Kovacs, KM and Lydersen, C and Chimienti, M and Renaud, M and Méndez Fernandez, P and Jeanniard du Dot, T}, title = {Foraging habits of Northwest Atlantic hooded seals over the past 30 years: Future habitat suitability under global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {e17186}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17186}, pmid = {38450925}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Conseil Regional Aquitaine (ECOMM Excellence Chair)/ ; }, abstract = {The Arctic is a global warming 'hot-spot' that is experiencing rapid increases in air and ocean temperatures and concomitant decreases in sea ice cover. These environmental changes are having major consequences on Arctic ecosystems. All Arctic endemic marine mammals are highly dependent on ice-associated ecosystems for at least part of their life cycle and thus are sensitive to the changes occurring in their habitats. Understanding the biological consequences of changes in these environments is essential for ecosystem management and conservation. However, our ability to study climate change impacts on Arctic marine mammals is generally limited by the lack of sufficiently long data time series. In this study, we took advantage of a unique dataset on hooded seal (Cystophora cristata) movements (and serum samples) that spans more than 30 years in the Northwest Atlantic to (i) investigate foraging (distribution and habitat use) and dietary (trophic level of prey and location) habits over the last three decades and (ii) predict future locations of suitable habitat given a projected global warming scenario. We found that, despite a change in isotopic signatures that might suggest prey changes over the 30-year period, hooded seals from the Northwest Atlantic appeared to target similar oceanographic characteristics throughout the study period. However, over decades, they have moved northward to find food. Somewhat surprisingly, foraging habits differed between seals breeding in the Gulf of St Lawrence vs those breeding at the "Front" (off Newfoundland). Seals from the Gulf favoured colder waters while Front seals favoured warmer waters. We predict that foraging habitats for hooded seals will continue to shift northwards and that Front seals are likely to have the greatest resilience. This study shows how hooded seals are responding to rapid environmental change and provides an indication of future trends for the species-information essential for effective ecosystem management and conservation.}, }
@article {pmid38450832, year = {2024}, author = {Zapata-Hernández, G and Gajardo-Rojas, M and Calderón-Seguel, M and Muñoz, AA and Yáñez, KP and Requier, F and Fontúrbel, FE and Ormeño-Arriagada, PI and Arrieta, H}, title = {Advances and knowledge gaps on climate change impacts on honey bees and beekeeping: A systematic review.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {e17219}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17219}, pmid = {38450832}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {ANID - FONDEF ID21I10422//Comisi&#xf3;n Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n Cient&#xed;fica y Tecnol&#xf3;gica/ ; ANID - FSEQ210033//Comisi&#xf3;n Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n Cient&#xed;fica y Tecnol&#xf3;gica/ ; FONDAP-ANID 1522A0001//Comisi&#xf3;n Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n Cient&#xed;fica y Tecnol&#xf3;gica/ ; //Pontificia Universidad Cat&#xf3;lica de Valpara&#xed;so/ ; }, abstract = {The Western honey bee Apis mellifera is a managed species that provides diverse hive products and contributing to wild plant pollination, as well as being a critical component of crop pollination systems worldwide. High mortality rates have been reported in different continents attributed to different factors, including pesticides, pests, diseases, and lack of floral resources. Furthermore, climate change has been identified as a potential driver negatively impacting pollinators, but it is still unclear how it could affect honey bee populations. In this context, we carried out a systematic review to synthesize the effects of climate change on honey bees and beekeeping activities. A total of 90 articles were identified, providing insight into potential impacts (negative, neutral, and positive) on honey bees and beekeeping. Interest in climate change's impact on honey bees has increased in the last decade, with studies mainly focusing on honey bee individuals, using empirical and experimental approaches, and performed at short-spatial (<10 km) and temporal (<5 years) scales. Moreover, environmental analyses were mainly based on short-term data (weather) and concentrated on only a few countries. Environmental variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind were widely studied and had generalized negative effects on different biological and ecological aspects of honey bees. Food reserves, plant-pollinator networks, mortality, gene expression, and metabolism were negatively impacted. Knowledge gaps included a lack of studies at the apiary and beekeeper level, a limited number of predictive and perception studies, poor representation of large-spatial and mid-term scales, a lack of climate analysis, and a poor understanding of the potential impacts of pests and diseases. Finally, climate change's impacts on global beekeeping are still an emergent issue. This is mainly due to their diverse effects on honey bees and the potential necessity of implementing adaptation measures to sustain this activity under complex environmental scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid38450825, year = {2024}, author = {Journeaux, KL and Boddy, L and Rowland, L and Hartley, IP}, title = {A positive feedback to climate change: The effect of temperature on the respiration of key wood-decomposing fungi does not decline with time.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {e17212}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17212}, pmid = {38450825}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NE/L002434/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Heterotrophic soil microorganisms are responsible for ~50% of the carbon dioxide released by respiration from the terrestrial biosphere each year. The respiratory response of soil microbial communities to warming, and the control mechanisms, remains uncertain, yet is critical to understanding the future land carbon (C)-climate feedback. Individuals of nine species of fungi decomposing wood were exposed to 90 days of cooling to evaluate the medium-term effect of temperature on respiration. Overall, the effect of temperature on respiration increased in the medium term, with no evidence of compensation. However, the increasing effect of temperature on respiration was lost after correcting for changes in biomass. These results indicate that C loss through respiration of wood-decomposing fungi will increase beyond the direct effects of temperature on respiration, potentially promoting greater C losses from terrestrial ecosystems and a positive feedback to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38448240, year = {2024}, author = {de Jarnette, J}, title = {Climate Change Psychological Distress: An Underdiagnosed Cause of Mental Health Disturbances.}, journal = {Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine : JABFM}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3122/jabfm.2023.230169R1}, pmid = {38448240}, issn = {1558-7118}, abstract = {The majority of climate change research and policy centers around the physical health effects of planetary degradation. The mental health impacts of climate change are just now starting to be elucidated and discussed more commonly among mental health providers and policymakers. There is a huge area of opportunity in primary care to discuss and address climate anxiety in patients, many of whom may not be forthcoming in discussing how climate anxiety is contributing to their mental health.}, }
@article {pmid38447729, year = {2024}, author = {Borchers-Arriagada, N and Schulz-Antipa, P and Conte-Grand, M}, title = {Future fire-smoke PM2.5 health burden under climate change in Paraguay.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171356}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171356}, pmid = {38447729}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Recent years have seen a rise in wildfire and extreme weather activity across the globe, which is projected to keep increasing with climate-induced conditions. Air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration, is heavily affected by PM2.5 emissions from wildfire activity. Paraguay has been historically suffering from fires, with an average of 2.3 million hectares burnt per year during the 2003-2021 period. Annual PM2.5 concentration in Paraguay is 13.2 μg/m[3], more than double the recommended by the WHO. We estimate that, historically, almost 40 % of fine air particulates can be attributed to fires. Using a random forest algorithm, we estimated future fire activity and fire related PM2.5 under different climate change scenarios. With global warming, we calculated that fire activity could increase by up to 120 % by 2100. Annual fire smoke PM2.5 from fires is expected to increase by 7.7 μg/m[3] by 2100. Under these conditions, Paraguay is expected to suffer an increase in 3500 additional deaths per year attributable to fire smoke PM2.5 by 2100. We estimate the economic cost of fire smoke-related mortality by 2100 at US $ 5600 million, equivalent to 2.6 % of Paraguay's GDP, excluding other health- and productivity-related impacts on society.}, }
@article {pmid38447452, year = {2024}, author = {Li, Z and Guo, X and Ma, Y and Hu, B and Yang, Y and Tian, H and Liu, X and Meng, N and Zhu, J and Yan, D and Song, H and Bao, B and Li, X and Dai, X and Zheng, Y and Jin, Y and Zheng, H}, title = {The hidden risk: Changes in functional potentials of microbial keystone taxa under global climate change jeopardizing soil carbon storage in alpine grasslands.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {185}, number = {}, pages = {108516}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2024.108516}, pmid = {38447452}, issn = {1873-6750}, abstract = {Climate change is endangering the soil carbon stock of alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), but the limited comprehension regarding the mechanisms that sustain carbon storage under hydrothermal changes increases the uncertainty associated with this finding. Here, we examined the relative abundance of soil microbial keystone taxa and their functional potentials, as well as their influence on soil carbon storage with increased precipitation across alpine grasslands on the QTP, China. The findings indicate that alterations in precipitation significantly decreased the relative abundance of the carbon degradation potentials of keystone taxa, such as chemoheterotrophs. The inclusion of keystone taxa and their internal functional potentials in the two best alternative models explained 70% and 63% of the variance in soil organic carbon (SOC) density, respectively. Moreover, we found that changes in chemoheterotrophs had negative effects on SOC density as indicated by a structural equation model, suggesting that some specialized functional potentials of keystone taxa are not conducive to the accumulation of carbon sink. Our study offers valuable insights into the intricate correlation between precipitation-induced alterations in soil microbial keystone taxa and SOC storage, highlighting a rough categorization is difficult to distinguish the hidden threats and the importance of incorporating functional potentials in SOC storage prediction models in response to changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid38448236, year = {2024}, author = {Wolk, D and Porter, R}, title = {Climate Change and Policy Reforms: A View from the Primary Care Clinic.}, journal = {Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine : JABFM}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3122/jabfm.2023.230209R1}, pmid = {38448236}, issn = {1558-7118}, }
@article {pmid38446893, year = {2024}, author = {Devanand, A and Falster, GM and Gillett, ZE and Hobeichi, S and Holgate, CM and Jin, C and Mu, M and Parker, T and Rifai, SW and Rome, KS and Stojanovic, M and Vogel, E and Abram, NJ and Abramowitz, G and Coats, S and Evans, JP and Gallant, AJE and Pitman, AJ and Power, SB and Rauniyar, SP and Taschetto, AS and Ukkola, AM}, title = {Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {eadj3460}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.adj3460}, pmid = {38446893}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {We examine the characteristics and causes of southeast Australia's Tinderbox Drought (2017 to 2019) that preceded the Black Summer fire disaster. The Tinderbox Drought was characterized by cool season rainfall deficits of around -50% in three consecutive years, which was exceptionally unlikely in the context of natural variability alone. The precipitation deficits were initiated and sustained by an anomalous atmospheric circulation that diverted oceanic moisture away from the region, despite traditional indicators of drought risk in southeast Australia generally being in neutral states. Moisture deficits were intensified by unusually high temperatures, high vapor pressure deficits, and sustained reductions in terrestrial water availability. Anthropogenic forcing intensified the rainfall deficits of the Tinderbox Drought by around 18% with an interquartile range of 34.9 to -13.3% highlighting the considerable uncertainty in attributing droughts of this kind to human activity. Skillful predictability of this drought was possible by incorporating multiple remote and local predictors through machine learning, providing prospects for improving forecasting of droughts.}, }
@article {pmid38446875, year = {2024}, author = {Muhammad, A and Qureshi, AZ and Farhan, M and Oduoye, MO and Shehzad, F and Imran, M}, title = {Emergency trauma care: Pakistan's preparedness amidst the growing impact of rapid climate change.}, journal = {International journal of surgery (London, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/JS9.0000000000001231}, pmid = {38446875}, issn = {1743-9159}, }
@article {pmid38444097, year = {2024}, author = {Paek, HJ and Hove, T}, title = {Mechanisms of Climate Change Media Effects: Roles of Risk Perception, Negative Emotion, and Efficacy Beliefs.}, journal = {Health communication}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-10}, doi = {10.1080/10410236.2024.2324230}, pmid = {38444097}, issn = {1532-7027}, abstract = {In the context of climate change communication, this study explores the process through which exposure to media messages about a risk leads to recommended behavioral intentions. We propose a model of this process based on the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM) and the Risk Perception Attitude (RPA) framework. Our model analyzes how risk perception, negative emotion, and efficacy beliefs mediate and moderate the effects of media messages on people's intention to engage in pro-environmental behaviors. A national survey among 1,000 adults in South Korea was analyzed, and the fitting of PROCESS Models 4 and 15 yielded four main findings. First, media exposure was directly and positively related to risk perception, negative emotion, and pro-environmental behavioral intention. However, the significant relation between media exposure and behavioral intention was partly conditional upon efficacy beliefs. Second, risk perception and negative emotion were also significantly related to behavioral intention conditional upon efficacy beliefs. Third, efficacy beliefs significantly moderated the relation between risk perception and behavioral intention, but not between negative emotion and behavioral intention. Fourth, efficacy beliefs served as a moderator for the indirect effect of media exposure on behavioral intention via risk perception and negative emotion.}, }
@article {pmid38443699, year = {2024}, author = {Kazemi Garajeh, M and Haji, F and Tohidfar, M and Sadeqi, A and Ahmadi, R and Kariminejad, N}, title = {Spatiotemporal monitoring of climate change impacts on water resources using an integrated approach of remote sensing and Google Earth Engine.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {5469}, pmid = {38443699}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {In this study, a data-driven approach employed by utilizing the product called JRC-Global surface water mapping layers V1.4 on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) to map and monitor the effects of climate change on surface water resources. Key climatic variables affecting water bodies, including air temperature (AT), actual evapotranspiration (ETa), and total precipitation, were analyzed from 2000 to 2021 using the temperature-vegetation index (TVX) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products. The findings demonstrate a clear association between global warming and the shrinking of surface water resources in the LUB. According to the results, an increase in AT corresponded to a decrease in water surface area, highlighting the significant influence of AT and ETa on controlling the water surface in the LUB (partial rho of - 0.65 and - 0.68, respectively). Conversely, no significant relationship was found with precipitation and water surface area (partial rho of + 0.25). Notably, the results of the study indicate that over the past four decades, approximately 40% of the water bodies in the LUB remained permanent. This suggests a loss of around 30% of the permanent water resources, which have transitioned into seasonal water bodies, accounting for nearly 13% of the total. This research provides a comprehensive framework for monitoring surface water resource variations and assessing the impact of climate change on water resources. It aids in the development of sustainable water management strategies and plans, supporting the preservation and effective use of water resources.}, }
@article {pmid38443642, year = {2024}, author = {Libonati, R}, title = {Megafires are here to stay - and blaming only climate change won't help.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {627}, number = {8002}, pages = {10}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-00641-4}, pmid = {38443642}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38438633, year = {2024}, author = {de Alencar, AS and da F Lira, C and Rosado, BHP and de F Mansano, V}, title = {Twenty-five years of Open-Top Chambers in tropical environments: where, how, and what are we looking at regarding flora response to climate change?.}, journal = {Planta}, volume = {259}, number = {4}, pages = {82}, pmid = {38438633}, issn = {1432-2048}, abstract = {Open-Top Chambers should be more used in tropical ecosystems to study climate change effects in plants as they are still insufficient to extract plant response patterns in these ecosystems. Understanding flora response to climate change (CC) is critical for predicting future ecosystem dynamics. Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) have been widely used to study the effects of CC on plants and are very popular in temperate ecosystems but are still underused in tropical regions. In this systematic review, we aimed to discuss the use of OTCs in the study of the effects of different agents of climate change on tropical flora by presenting scientometric data, discussing the technical aspects of its use and enumerating some observations on plant response patterns to climatic alterations in the tropics. Our analysis indicated that the bottleneck in choosing an OTC shape is not strictly related to its purpose or the type of parameter modulated; instead, passive or active approaches seem to be a more sensitive point. The common critical point in using this technique in warmer regions is overheating and decoupling, but it can be overcome with simple adaptations and extra features. The most frequently parameter modulated was CO2, followed by O3 and temperature. The plant families with more representatives in the studies analyzed were Fabaceae, Myrtaceae, and Poaceae, and the most represented biome was tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests. In conclusion, OTCs are a valuable and feasible tool to study CC effects on various tropical ecosystems, regardless of structure, active/passive approach, or other technical features. One of the primary advantages of this methodology is its applicability for in situ use, eliminating the need for plant transplantation. We encourage studies using OTC experimental design for plant conservation in the tropics.}, }
@article {pmid38438043, year = {2024}, author = {Tang, Z and Sng, KTH and Zhang, Y and Carrasco, LR}, title = {Climate change market-driven poleward shifts in cropland production create opportunities for tropical biodiversity conservation and habitat restoration.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171198}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171198}, pmid = {38438043}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Although the impacts of climate change on the yields of crops have been studied, how these changes will result in the eventual realized crop production through market feedbacks, has received little attention. Using a combination of attainable yield predictions for wheat, rice, maize, soybean and sugarcane, computable general equilibrium and land rent models, we project market impacts and crop-specific land-use change up to 2100. The results show a general increase in crop prices in tropical regions and a decrease in sub-tropical and temperate regions. Land-use change driven by market feedbacks generally amplify the effects on crop production of climate change on yields. Wheat, maize and sugarcane are projected to experience the most expansion especially in Canada and Russia, which also present the highest potential for habitat conversion-driven carbon emissions. Conversely, Latin America presents the highest extinction potential for birds, mammals and amphibians due to cropland expansion. Climate change is likely to redistribute agricultural production, generating market-driven land-use feedback effects which could, counterintuitively, protect global biodiversity by shifting global food production towards less-biodiverse temperate regions while creating substantial restoration opportunities in the tropics.}, }
@article {pmid38437901, year = {2024}, author = {Neokye, EO and Wang, X and Thakur, KK and Quijon, P and Nawaz, RA and Basheer, S}, title = {Climate change impacts on oyster aquaculture - Part I: Identification of key factors.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118561}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118561}, pmid = {38437901}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Oysters are enriched with high-quality protein and are widely known for their exquisite taste. The production of oysters plays an important role in the local economies of coastal communities in many countries, including Atlantic Canada, because of their high economic value. However, because of the changing climatic conditions in recent years, oyster aquaculture faces potentially negative impacts, such as increasing water acidification, warming water temperature, high salinity, invasive species, algal blooms, and other environmental factors. Although a few isolated effects of climate change on oyster aquaculture have been reported in recent years, it is not well understood how climate change will affect oyster aquaculture from a systematic perspective. In the first part of this study, we present a systematic review of the impacts of climate change and some key environmental factors affecting oyster production on a global scale. The study also identifies knowledge gaps and challenges. In addition, we present key research directions that will facilitate future investigations.}, }
@article {pmid38438315, year = {2024}, author = {Francis, DL and Reddy, SSP and Logaranjani, A and Chopra, SS}, title = {Climate change and oral health: Assessing the impacts and developing strategies for adaptation.}, journal = {Oral diseases}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/odi.14922}, pmid = {38438315}, issn = {1601-0825}, }
@article {pmid38437577, year = {2024}, author = {Gaugler, JE}, title = {Climate Change and Aging.}, journal = {The Gerontologist}, volume = {64}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/geront/gnae006}, pmid = {38437577}, issn = {1758-5341}, }
@article {pmid38436104, year = {2024}, author = {Ranta, A and Kang, J and Saad, A and Wasay, M and Béjot, Y and Ozturk, S and Giroud, M and Reis, J and Douwes, J}, title = {Climate Change and Stroke: A Topical Narrative Review.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1161/STROKEAHA.123.043826}, pmid = {38436104}, issn = {1524-4628}, abstract = {The impacts of accumulating atmospheric greenhouse gases on the earth's climate are now well established. As a result, there have been increases in ambient temperatures and resultant higher frequency and duration of temperature extremes and other extreme weather events, which have been linked to a wide range of adverse health outcomes. This topical narrative review provides a summary of published evidence on the links between climate change and stroke. There is consistent evidence of associations between stroke incidence and mortality and increasing ambient temperature and air pollution. Associations have also been shown for changes in barometric pressure, wildfires, and desert dust and sandstorms, but current evidence is limited. Flooding and other extreme weather events appear to primarily cause service disruption, but more direct links to stroke may emerge. Synergies between dietary changes that reduce stroke risk and may also reduce carbon footprint are being explored. We also discuss the impact on vulnerable populations, proposed pathophysiologic mechanisms, mitigation strategies, and current research priorities. In conclusion, climate change increasingly impacts the stroke community, warranting elevated attention.}, }
@article {pmid38436037, year = {2023}, author = {Breitner-Busch, S and Mücke, HG and Schneider, A and Hertig, E}, title = {Corrigendum: Impact of climate change on non-communicable diseases due to increased ambient air pollution.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 4}, pages = {121}, doi = {10.25646/11831}, pmid = {38436037}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {[This corrects the article on p. 103-121 in vol. 8, PMID: 37799533.].}, }
@article {pmid38434744, year = {2023}, author = {Hoernke, K and Shrestha, A and Pokhrel, B and Timberlake, T and Giri, S and Sapkota, S and Dalglish, S and Costello, A and Saville, N}, title = {Children in All Policies (CAP) 2030 Citizen Science for Climate Change Resilience: a cross-sectional pilot study engaging adolescents to study climate hazards, biodiversity and nutrition in rural Nepal.}, journal = {Wellcome open research}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {570}, doi = {10.12688/wellcomeopenres.18591.1}, pmid = {38434744}, issn = {2398-502X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Young people will suffer most from climate change yet are rarely engaged in dialogue about it. Citizen science offers a method for collecting policy-relevant data, whilst promoting awareness and capacity building. We tested the feasibility and acceptability of engaging Nepalese adolescents in climate change and health-related citizen science.<br><br>METHODS: We purposively selected 33 adolescents from two secondary schools in one remote and one relatively accessible district of Nepal. We contextualised existing apps and developed bespoke apps to survey climate hazards, waste and water management, local biodiversity, nutrition and sociodemographic information. We analysed and presented quantitative data using a descriptive analysis. We captured perceptions and learnings via focus group discussions and analysed qualitative data using thematic analysis. We shared findings with data collectors using tables, graphs, data dashboards and maps.<br><br>RESULTS: Adolescents collected 1667 biodiversity observations, identified 72 climate-change related hazards, and mapped 644 geolocations. They recorded 286 weights, 248 heights and 340 dietary recalls. Adolescents enjoyed learning how to collect the data and interpret the findings and gained an appreciation of local biodiversity which engendered 'environmental stewardship'. Data highlighted the prevalence of failing crops and landslides, revealed both under- and over-nutrition and demonstrated that children consume more junk foods than adults. Adolescents learnt about the impacts of climate change and the importance of eating a diverse diet of locally grown foods. A lack of a pre-established sampling frame, multiple records of the same observation and spurious nutrition data entries by unsupervised adolescents limited data quality and utility. Lack of internet access severely impacted feasibility, especially of apps which provide online feedback.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Citizen science was largely acceptable, educational and empowering for adolescents, although not always feasible without internet access. Future projects could improve data quality and integrate youth leadership training to enable climate-change advocacy with local leaders.}, }
@article {pmid38434121, year = {2024}, author = {Gupta, K}, title = {Impact of Climate Change, Environmental Toxins and Pollution on the AOFOG region: What can OBGYNs do?.}, journal = {Journal of obstetrics and gynaecology of India}, volume = {74}, number = {1}, pages = {22-26}, doi = {10.1007/s13224-024-01958-w}, pmid = {38434121}, issn = {0971-9202}, abstract = {Climate change is occurring rapidly, and this crisis should now be recognized as a "global emergency". It is one of the major global health threats brought about by global warming, resulting from human activity due in large part to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The ongoing climate crisis poses significant risks to women, pregnant mothers, unborn fetuses and offspring, who were exposed in-utero to climate stressors, especially those in marginalized communities where effects are magnified. A focus on education, research, and advocacy in responding to changing health consequences and global awareness are key to educating our professional healthcare providers, patients, the lay public, key personnel in the government and other leaders, and by making the changes necessary to address this crisis. Building on the pillars that FIGO has identified (advocacy, research interpretation, capacity building, and education), and following the footsteps of the FIGO Committee on "Climate Change and Toxic Environmental Exposures", the baby steps yet focussed efforts taken by AOFOG through its recently formed "Climate Change &amp; Pollution Working Group" will be highlighted in this review article. After all, investing in the health of women is investing in the health of current and future generations, and we, as healthcare providers along with health professional organizations should be in the forefront of environmental health advocacy to save the present generation and future generations through engagement as public opinion leaders.}, }
@article {pmid38433967, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, S and Liu, Y and Teschke, K and Hindell, MA and Downey, R and Woods, B and Kang, B and Ma, S and Zhang, C and Li, J and Ye, Z and Sun, P and He, J and Tian, Y}, title = {Incorporating mesopelagic fish into the evaluation of conservation areas for marine living resources under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Marine life science &amp; technology}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {68-83}, doi = {10.1007/s42995-023-00188-9}, pmid = {38433967}, issn = {2662-1746}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Mesopelagic fish (meso-fish) are central species within the Southern Ocean (SO). However, their ecosystem role and adaptive capacity to climate change are rarely integrated into protected areas assessments. This is a pity given their importance as crucial prey and predators in food webs, coupled with the impacts of climate change. Here, we estimate the habitat distribution of nine meso-fish using an ensemble model approach (MAXENT, random forest, and boosted regression tree). Four climate model simulations were used to project their distribution under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for short-term (2006-2055) and long-term (2050-2099) periods. In addition, we assess the ecological representativeness of protected areas under climate change scenarios using meso-fish as indicator species. Our models show that all species shift poleward in the future. Lanternfishes (family Myctophidae) are predicted to migrate poleward more than other families (Paralepididae, Nototheniidae, Bathylagidae, and Gonostomatidae). In comparison, lanternfishes were projected to increase habitat area in the eastern SO but lose area in the western SO; the opposite was projected for species in other families. Important areas (IAs) of meso-fish are mainly distributed near the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctica. Negotiated protected area cover 23% of IAs at present and 38% of IAs in the future (RCP8.5, long-term future). Many IAs of meso-fish still need to be included in protected areas, such as the Prydz Bay and the seas around the Antarctic Peninsula. Our results provide a framework for evaluating protected areas incorporating climate change adaptation strategies for protected areas management.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-023-00188-9.}, }
@article {pmid38433966, year = {2024}, author = {Glamuzina, B and Vilizzi, L and Piria, M and Žuljević, A and Cetinić, AB and Pešić, A and Dragičević, B and Lipej, L and Pećarević, M and Bartulović, V and Grđan, S and Cvitković, I and Dobroslavić, T and Fortič, A and Glamuzina, L and Mavrič, B and Tomanić, J and Despalatović, M and Trkov, D and Šćepanović, MB and Vidović, Z and Simonović, P and Matić-Skoko, S and Tutman, P}, title = {Global warming scenarios for the Eastern Adriatic Sea indicate a higher risk of invasiveness of non-native marine organisms relative to current climate conditions.}, journal = {Marine life science &amp; technology}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {143-154}, doi = {10.1007/s42995-023-00196-9}, pmid = {38433966}, issn = {2662-1746}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Globally, marine bioinvasions threaten marine ecosystem structure and function, with the Mediterranean Sea being one of the most affected regions. Such invasions are expected to increase due to climate change. We conducted a risk screening of marine organisms (37 fishes, 38 invertebrates, and 9 plants), both extant and 'horizon' (i.e., not present in the area but likely to enter it). Based on expert knowledge for the Eastern Adriatic Sea coasts of Slovenia, Croatia, and Montenegro, screenings were conducted under both current and predicted climate conditions indicating with an increase in sea surface temperature and salinity of the Adriatic Sea together with changes in precipitation regime. Our aims were to: (1) identify non-native extant and horizon marine species that may pose threats to native biodiversity and (2) evaluate the risk of invasiveness of the selected species under current and predicted climate conditions. Of the 84 species screened, there was an increase in those ranked as 'high risk' from 33 (39.3%) under current climate conditions and to 47 (56.0%) under global warming scenarios. For those ranked as 'very high' risk, the increase was from 6 (7.1%) to 21 (25.0%). Amongst the screened species, the already established high-risk species Pacific oyster Magallana gigas and Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus represent a threat to ecosystem services. Given the under-representation of marine species in the current European Union List, the species we have ranked as high to very high risk should be included.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-023-00196-9.}, }
@article {pmid38433030, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, H and Chen, J and Qiu, M and Shi, Z and Zhang, S and Dong, G and Ma, S and Ai, T and Ren, G and Chen, F}, title = {Climate change drove the route shift of the ancient Silk Road in two distinct ways.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2024.02.025}, pmid = {38433030}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {Although climate change has convincingly been linked to the evolution of human civilization on different temporal scales, its role in influencing the spatial patterns of ancient civilizations has rarely been investigated. The northward shift of the ancient Silk Road (SR) route from the Tarim Basin (TB) to the Dzungarian Basin during ∼420-850 CE provides the opportunity to investigate the relationship between climate change and the spatial evolution of human societies. Here, we use a new high-resolution chironomid-based temperature reconstruction from arid China, combined with hydroclimatic and historical datasets, to assess the possible effects of climate fluctuations on the shift of the ancient SR route. We found that a cooling/drying climate in the TB triggered the SR route shift during ∼420-600 CE. However, a warming/wetting climate during ∼600-850 CE did not inhibit this shift, but instead promoted it, because of the favorable climate-induced geopolitical conflicts between the Tubo Kingdom and the Tang Dynasty in the TB. Our findings reveal two distinct ways in which climate change drove the spatial evolution of human civilization, and they demonstrate the flexibility of societal responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38432382, year = {2024}, author = {Rhymes, JM and Evans, D and Laudone, G and Schofield, HK and Fry, E and Fitzsimons, MF}, title = {Biochar improves fertility in waste derived manufactured soils, but not resilience to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171387}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171387}, pmid = {38432382}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {We present a soil manufactured from waste materials, which could replace the use of peat and topsoil in plant production and reduce the pressure on natural soil resources. We tested the effect of the manufactured soil on ecosystem functions and microbial communities with and without plants present, and with and without biochar addition (Experiment 1). The resilience of the soil in response to drought and flooding, and also the effect of biochar was also tested (Experiment 2). Biochar increased soil C and N regardless of plant presence and negated the effect of the plant on soil peroxidase enzyme activity. The manufactured soil was largely resilient to drought, but not flooding, with negative impacts on microbial communities. Results indicate that biochar could improve soil properties, but not resilience to climatic perturbations. Results suggest that manufactured soils amended with biochar could offer a useful alternative to natural soil in many contexts.}, }
@article {pmid38431988, year = {2024}, author = {Carlson, JM and Foley, J and Fang, L}, title = {Climate change on the brain: Neural correlates of climate anxiety.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {103}, number = {}, pages = {102848}, doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2024.102848}, pmid = {38431988}, issn = {1873-7897}, abstract = {Climate change is a global crisis impacting individuals' mental health. Climate anxiety is an emerging area of interest within popular culture and the scientific community. Yet, little is known about the mechanisms underlying climate anxiety. We provide evidence that climate anxiety is related to gray matter volume in the midcingulate cortex as well as its level of functional connectivity with the insula cortex. These neuroanatomical and neurofunctional features of climate anxiety are involved in identifying and anticipating potential threats within the environment and preparing an appropriate action response to such threats. These neural correlates align with those observed in anxiety disorders. Yet, climate anxiety itself as well as the neural correlates of climate anxiety were related to pro-environmental behavior. This may suggest that the midcingulate and insula are part of a network linked to an adaptive aspect of climate anxiety in motivating behavioral engagement.}, }
@article {pmid38431165, year = {2024}, author = {de Souza, SS and Bruce, KHR and da Costa, JC and Pereira, D and da Silva, GS and Val, AL}, title = {Effects of climate change and mixtures of pesticides on the Amazonian fish Colossoma macropomum.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {922}, number = {}, pages = {171379}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171379}, pmid = {38431165}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Several studies highlighted the complexity of mixing pesticides present in Amazonian aquatic environments today. There is evidence that indicates that ongoing climate change can alter the pattern of pesticide use, increasing the concentration and frequency of pesticide applications. It is known that the combination of thermal and chemical stress can induce interactive effects in aquatic biota, which accentuates cell and molecular damage. However, considering that the effects of climate change go beyond the increase in temperature the objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change scenarios proposed by 6 th IPCC report and a mixture of pesticides on the tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum). The hypothesis of this study is that the negative effects will be accentuated by the combination of an extreme climate changes scenario and a mixture of pesticides. To test the hypothesis, juvenile tambaqui were exposed to a combination of four pesticides (chlorpyrifos, malathion, carbendazim and atrazine) in two scenarios, one that simulates current environmental conditions and another that predicted the environmental scenario for the year 2100. Fish were subjected to the experimental conditions for 96 h. At the end of the experiment, samples of blood, gills, liver, brain, and muscle were obtained for hematological, genotoxic, biochemical, and histopathological analyses. The results demonstrate that environmentally realistic concentrations of pesticides, when mixed, can alter the biochemical responses of tambaqui. The extreme scenario promotes hematological adjustments, but impairs branchial antioxidant enzymes. There is an interaction between the mixture of pesticides and the extreme scenario, accentuating liver tissue damage, which demonstrates that even increased activity of antioxidant and biotransformation enzymes were not sufficient to prevent liver damage.}, }
@article {pmid38430562, year = {2024}, author = {Borge, M and Ellis, CJ}, title = {Interactions of moisture and light drive lichen growth and the response to climate change scenarios - experimental evidence for Lobaria pulmonaria.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcae029}, pmid = {38430562}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is growing interest in the functional ecology of poikilohydric nonvascular photoautotrophs (NVPs), including 'cryptogamic' bryophytes and lichens. These organisms are structurally important in many ecosystems, contributing substantially to ecosystem function and services, while also being sensitive to climate change. Previous research has quantified the climate change response of poikilohydric NVPs using predictive bioclimatic models with standard climate variables including precipitation totals and temperature averages. This study aimed for an improved functional understanding of their climate change response based on their growth rate sensitivity to moisture and light.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a 24-month experiment to monitor lichen hydration and growth. We accounted for two well-known features in the ecology of poikilohydric NVPs, and exemplified here for a structurally dominant lichen epiphyte, Lobaria pulmonaria: (i) sensitivity to multiple sources of atmospheric moisture including rain, condensed dew-formation and water vapour, and (ii) growth determined by the amount of time hydrated in the light, driving photosynthesis, referred to as the Iwet hypothesis.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: First, we found that even within an oceanic high-rainfall environment, lichen hydration was better explained by vapour pressure deficit (VPD) than precipitation totals. Second, growth at a monthly resolution was positively related to the amount of time spent hydrated in the light, and negatively related to the amount of time spent hydrated in the dark.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Using multimodel averaging to project growth models for an ensemble of future climate change scenarios, we demonstrated reduced net growth for L. pulmonaria by the late 21st Century, explained by extended climate dryness and lichen desiccation for periods when there is otherwise sufficient light to drive photosynthesis. The results further emphasise a key issue of photoperiodism when constructing functionally relevant models to understand the risk of climate change, especially for poikilohydric NVPs.}, }
@article {pmid38430368, year = {2024}, author = {Sommer, B and von Querfurth, S}, title = {"In the end, the story of climate change was one of hope and redemption": ChatGPT's narrative on global warming.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38430368}, issn = {1654-7209}, abstract = {AI chatbots such as ChatGPT help people produce texts. According to media reporting, these texts are also used for educational purposes. Thus, AI influences people's knowledge and perception of current issues. This paper examines the narrative of ChatGPT's stories on climate change. Our explorative analysis reveals that ChatGPT's stories on climate change show a relatively uniform structure and similar content. Generally, the narrative is in line with scientific knowledge on climate change; the stories convey no significant misinformation. However, specific topics in current debates on global warming are conspicuously missing. According to the ChatGPT narrative, humans as a species are responsible for climate change and specific economic activities or actors associated with carbon emissions play no role. Analogously, the social structuration of vulnerability to climate impacts and issues of climate justice are hardly addressed. ChatGPT's narrative consists of de-politicized stories that are highly optimistic about technological progress.}, }
@article {pmid38429332, year = {2024}, author = {Bottino, MJ and Nobre, P and Giarolla, E and da Silva Junior, MB and Capistrano, VB and Malagutti, M and Tamaoki, JN and de Oliveira, BFA and Nobre, CA}, title = {Amazon savannization and climate change are projected to increase dry season length and temperature extremes over Brazil.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {5131}, pmid = {38429332}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Land use change and atmospheric composition, two drivers of climate change, can interact to affect both local and remote climate regimes. Previous works have considered the effects of greenhouse gas buildup in the atmosphere and the effects of Amazon deforestation in atmospheric general circulation models. In this study, we investigate the impacts of the Brazilian Amazon savannization and global warming in a fully coupled ocean-land-sea ice-atmosphere model simulation. We find that both savannization and global warming individually lengthen the dry season and reduce annual rainfall over large tracts of South America. The combined effects of land use change and global warming resulted in a mean annual rainfall reduction of 44% and a dry season length increase of 69%, when averaged over the Amazon basin, relative to the control run. Modulation of inland moisture transport due to savannization shows the largest signal to explain the rainfall reduction and increase in dry season length over the Amazon and Central-West. The combined effects of savannization and global warming resulted in maximum daily temperature anomalies, reaching values of up to 14 °C above the current climatic conditions over the Amazon. Also, as a consequence of both climate drivers, both soil moisture and surface runoff decrease over most of the country, suggesting cascading negative future impacts on both agriculture production and hydroelectricity generation.}, }
@article {pmid38429286, year = {2024}, author = {Lenton, TM and Abrams, JF and Bartsch, A and Bathiany, S and Boulton, CA and Buxton, JE and Conversi, A and Cunliffe, AM and Hebden, S and Lavergne, T and Poulter, B and Shepherd, A and Smith, T and Swingedouw, D and Winkelmann, R and Boers, N}, title = {Publisher Correction: Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {1917}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-024-45881-0}, pmid = {38429286}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid38429277, year = {2024}, author = {Williams, E and Funk, C and Peterson, P and Tuholske, C}, title = {High resolution climate change observations and projections for the evaluation of heat-related extremes.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {261}, pmid = {38429277}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {72DFFP19CA00001//United States Agency for International Development (U.S. Agency for International Development)/ ; 72DFFP19CA00001//United States Agency for International Development (U.S. Agency for International Development)/ ; 80NSSC19K0686//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; 80NSSC19K0686//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; 80NSSC22K0470//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; }, abstract = {The Climate Hazards Center Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projection dataset (CHC-CMIP6) was developed to support the analysis of climate-related hazards, including extreme humid heat and drought conditions, over the recent past and in the near-future. Global daily high resolution (0.05°) grids of the Climate Hazards InfraRed Temperature with Stations temperature product, the Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Stations precipitation product, and ERA5-derived relative humidity form the basis of the 1983-2016 historical record, from which daily Vapor Pressure Deficits (VPD) and maximum Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures (WBGTmax) were derived. Large CMIP6 ensembles from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios were then used to develop high resolution daily 2030 and 2050 'delta' fields. These deltas were used to perturb the historical observations, thereby generating 0.05° 2030 and 2050 projections of daily precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and derived VPD and WBGTmax. Finally, monthly counts of frequency of extremes for each variable were derived for each time period.}, }
@article {pmid38428851, year = {2024}, author = {Park, EJ and Bae, J and Kim, J and Yoon, JU and Do, W and Yoon, JP and Shon, HS and Kang, Y and Kim, HY and Cho, AR}, title = {Reducing the carbon footprint of operating rooms through education on the effects of inhalation anesthetics on global warming: A retrospective study.}, journal = {Medicine}, volume = {103}, number = {9}, pages = {e37256}, doi = {10.1097/MD.0000000000037256}, pmid = {38428851}, issn = {1536-5964}, abstract = {Environmental concerns, especially global warming, have prompted efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Healthcare systems, including anesthesia practices, contribute to these emissions. Inhalation anesthetics have a significant environmental impact, with desflurane being the most concerning because of its high global warming potential. This study aimed to educate anesthesiologists on the environmental impact of inhalation anesthetics and assess changes in awareness and practice patterns, specifically reducing desflurane use. This study included data from patients who underwent surgery under general anesthesia 1 month before and after education on the effects of inhalation anesthetics on global warming. The primary endpoint was a change in inhalational anesthetic use. Secondary endpoints included changes in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions, driving equivalent, and medical costs. After the education, desflurane use decreased by 50%, whereas sevoflurane use increased by 50%. This shift resulted in a reduction in the overall amount of inhalational anesthetics used. The total CO2e and driving-equivalent values decreased significantly. The cost per anesthesia case decreased, albeit to a lesser extent than expected. Education on the environmental impact of inhalation anesthetics has successfully altered anesthesiologists' practice patterns, leading to reduced desflurane usage. This change has resulted in decreased CO2e emissions and has had a positive effect on mitigating global warming. However, further research is required to assess the long-term impact of such education and the variability in practice patterns across different institutions.}, }
@article {pmid38428437, year = {2024}, author = {Kenyon, G}, title = {Remote First Nations communities face climate change pressures.}, journal = {The Lancet. Microbe}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2666-5247(24)00048-X}, pmid = {38428437}, issn = {2666-5247}, }
@article {pmid38428181, year = {2024}, author = {Cappelli, F and Costantini, V and D'Angeli, M and Marin, G and Paglialunga, E}, title = {Local sources of vulnerability to climate change and armed conflicts in East Africa.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {355}, number = {}, pages = {120403}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120403}, pmid = {38428181}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {While socioeconomic and institutional factors are crucial in explaining the onset and evolution of conflicts, recent research suggests that climate change is a further indirect driver acting as a "threat multiplier". This paper focuses on the concept of vulnerability to both climate change and conflicts to explain why some locations are more likely to engage in armed conflicts than others in the presence of a similar level of exposure to climatic changes. In particular, by means of a Spatial Autoregressive Model, we identify a set of local-specific vulnerability factors that increase conflict risk in East Africa. We employ a georeferenced database with a resolution of 25 × 25 km, covering the period 1997-2016. Results from our analysis provide some interesting insights: first, climate change does not increase conflict risk per se, but only in the presence of pre-existing vulnerabilities. Second, resource access and socioeconomic factors play a key role in driving the climate-conflict nexus especially in urban areas. In particular, vulnerability is increased whenever power is not distributed in such a way as to ensure an equitable distribution of resources. Overall, our findings suggest that, by addressing vulnerability factors that prevent adaptive capacity and an equitable distribution of resources, societies may benefit in terms of both diminished conflict risk and alleviation of climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid38426609, year = {2024}, author = {Backus, GA and Clements, CF and Baskett, ML}, title = {Restoring spatiotemporal variability to enhance the capacity for dispersal-limited species to track climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e4257}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.4257}, pmid = {38426609}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {1655475//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate refugia are areas where species can persist through climate change with little to no movement. Among the factors associated with climate refugia are high spatial heterogeneity, such that there is only a short distance between current and future optimal climates, as well as biotic or abiotic environmental factors that buffer against variability in time. However, these types of climate refugia may be declining due to anthropogenic homogenization of environments and degradation of environmental buffers. To quantify the potential for restoration of refugia-like environmental conditions to increase population persistence under climate change, we simulated a population's capacity to track their temperature over space and time given different levels of spatial and temporal variability in temperature. To determine how species traits affected the efficacy of restoring heterogeneity, we explored an array of values for species' dispersal ability, thermal tolerance, and fecundity. We found that species were more likely to persist in environments with higher spatial heterogeneity and lower environmental stochasticity. When simulating a management action that increased the spatial heterogeneity of a previously homogenized environment, species were more likely to persist through climate change, and population sizes were generally higher, but there was little effect with mild temperature change. The benefits of heterogeneity restoration were greatest for species with limited dispersal ability. In contrast, species with longer dispersal but lower fecundity were more likely to benefit from a reduction in environmental stochasticity than an increase in spatial heterogeneity. Our results suggest that restoring environments to refugia-like conditions could promote species' persistence under the influence of climate change in addition to conservation strategies such as assisted migration, corridors, and increased protection.}, }
@article {pmid38426250, year = {2024}, author = {Grant, A}, title = {The science of climate change and the effect of anaesthetic gas emissions.}, journal = {Anaesthesia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/anae.16253}, pmid = {38426250}, issn = {1365-2044}, }
@article {pmid38426249, year = {2024}, author = {Slingo, JM and Slingo, ME}, title = {The science of climate change and the effect of anaesthetic gas emissions: a reply.}, journal = {Anaesthesia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/anae.16268}, pmid = {38426249}, issn = {1365-2044}, }
@article {pmid38425973, year = {2024}, author = {Afzal, F and Das, A and Chatterjee, S}, title = {Drawing the Linkage Between Women's Reproductive Health, Climate Change, Natural Disaster, and Climate-driven Migration: Focusing on Low- and Middle-income Countries - A Systematic Overview.}, journal = {Indian journal of community medicine : official publication of Indian Association of Preventive &amp; Social Medicine}, volume = {49}, number = {1}, pages = {28-38}, doi = {10.4103/ijcm.ijcm_165_23}, pmid = {38425973}, issn = {0970-0218}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: One of the most important aspects of women's well-being and welfare is RSH (reproductive and sexual health). Reproductive health is not an exception to the threat that CCC (climate change and climate crisis) poses to numerous facets of public health. Firstly, the present review seeks to identify the influence of climatic changes, natural disasters, and climate-driven migration on RSH. Secondly, to identify knowledge gaps regarding the same.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: Two databases (Scopus and PubMed) were scanned using Boolean operation. The literature search aimed to find records pertaining to topics of RSH and climate change. Using the PRISMA-ScR method, records were screened and shortlisted based on established inclusion criteria. This literature search was carried out in November 2022. In the shortlisted records, preference for the comprehensive review articles was given.<br><br>RESULTS: The present review is based on 38 records that collectively revealed that climate crisis and natural disasters have many negative impacts on female reproductive health. These effects are observed in different phases of life, ranging from teenage to menopause. The unique strength of the present review is that it draws a relationship between female reproductive health and the direct as well as indirect effects of the CCC. The available literature about LMICs is predominantly confined to drought, flood, and earthquake. Disasters like tsunamis, cyclones, and avalanches remain unexplored.<br><br>CONCLUSION: From the available literature, it is quite evident that CCC has an adverse effect on a woman's reproductive life as well as a bearing on future generations' health. Filling these knowledge gaps is pivotal for designing more effective disaster and health policies. Policymakers should take into consideration these detrimental effects while designing health schemes and policies for females.}, }
@article {pmid38425794, year = {2024}, author = {Opačić, N and Radman, S and Dujmović, M and Fabek Uher, S and Benko, B and Toth, N and Petek, M and Čoga, L and Voća, S and Šic Žlabur, J}, title = {Boosting nutritional quality of Urtica dioica L. to resist climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1331327}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2024.1331327}, pmid = {38425794}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: More than ever, traditional agricultural practices need a shift towards more resilient, sustainable, modern and adaptable practices that benefit the health of the planet and people. Today's consumers are constantly on the lookout for novel, highly nutritious foods that have a positive impact on their overall health and well-being. Nettle (Urtica dioica L.) is gaining recognition not only as a popular medicinal plant, but also as a desirable green leafy vegetable rich in phytonutrients. As it is difficult and even expensive to control the quality standards of wild-collected plants, the implementation of sustainable cultivation methods, especially hydroponics, with effective greenhouse management could be a possible solution to obtain a standardized product with high nutritional value. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of four nutrient solutions differing in the content of macro- and micronutrients (especially nitrogen, potassium, calcium, magnesium and iron) and two consecutive cuts on the number of leaves, yield, nitrate and mineral content and the content of specialized metabolites of stinging nettle from a floating hydroponic system.<br><br>METHODS: Nettle plants were cultivated in a hydroponic system using the floating hydroponics technique. The two-factorial experiment was performed with nutrient solution and consecutive cuts as factors.<br><br>RESULTS: The highest yield (2.49 kg/m2) was achieved after the 1st cut with plants cultivated in the nutrient solution with higher nutrient concentration. All tested nutrient solutions resulted in high levels of minerals and bioactive compounds in the plant material (ascorbic acid content of 102.30 mg/100 g fw and total phenolics content of 465.92 mg GAE/100 g fw), confirming floating hydroponics as a sustainable approach for cultivating nettle with enhanced nutritional value and antioxidant potential.<br><br>CONCLUSION: It is important to highlight that the nutrient solution with the lowest nutrient composition yielded the highest concentrations of calcium (5.54%) and iron (180.67 mg/kg dw). Furthermore, it exhibited elevated levels of specific phenolic compounds, including caffeoylmaleic acid, ellagic acid, ferulic acid, naringin, and rutin trihydrate. Notably, this solution demonstrated the lowest nitrate content (4225.33 mg/kg fw) in the plant material. Therefore, it can be recommended as a preferable formulation for hydroponic nettle cultivation.}, }
@article {pmid38425789, year = {2024}, author = {Talukder, B and Schubert, JE and Tofighi, M and Likongwe, PJ and Choi, EY and Mphepo, GY and Asgary, A and Bunch, MJ and Chiotha, SS and Matthew, R and Sanders, BF and Hipel, KW and vanLoon, GW and Orbinski, J}, title = {Complex adaptive systems-based framework for modeling the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {The journal of climate change and health}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {100292}, doi = {10.1016/j.joclim.2023.100292}, pmid = {38425789}, issn = {2667-2782}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is a global phenomenon with far-reaching consequences, and its impact on human health is a growing concern. The intricate interplay of various factors makes it challenging to accurately predict and understand the implications of climate change on human well-being. Conventional methodologies have limitations in comprehensively addressing the complexity and nonlinearity inherent in the relationships between climate change and health outcomes.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of this paper is to develop a robust theoretical framework that can effectively analyze and interpret the intricate web of variables influencing the human health impacts of climate change. By doing so, we aim to overcome the limitations of conventional approaches and provide a more nuanced understanding of the complex relationships involved. Furthermore, we seek to explore practical applications of this theoretical framework to enhance our ability to predict, mitigate, and adapt to the diverse health challenges posed by a changing climate.<br><br>METHODS: Addressing the challenges outlined in the objectives, this study introduces the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework, acknowledging its significance in capturing the nuanced dynamics of health effects linked to climate change. The research utilizes a blend of field observations, expert interviews, key informant interviews, and an extensive literature review to shape the development of the CAS framework.<br><br>RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The proposed CAS framework categorizes findings into six key sub-systems: ecological services, extreme weather, infectious diseases, food security, disaster risk management, and clinical public health. The study employs agent-based modeling, using causal loop diagrams (CLDs) tailored for each CAS sub-system. A set of identified variables is incorporated into predictive modeling to enhance the understanding of health outcomes within the CAS framework. Through a combination of theoretical development and practical application, this paper aspires to contribute valuable insights to the interdisciplinary field of climate change and health. Integrating agent-based modeling and CLDs enhances the predictive capabilities required for effective health outcome analysis in the context of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This paper serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, researchers, and public health professionals by employing a CAS framework to understand and assess the complex network of health impacts associated with climate change. It offers insights into effective strategies for safeguarding human health amidst current and future climate challenges.}, }
@article {pmid38425367, year = {2023}, author = {Quattrocchi, G and Christensen, E and Sinerchia, M and Marras, S and Cucco, A and Domenici, P and Behrens, JW}, title = {Aerobic metabolic scope mapping of an invasive fish species with global warming.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {coad094}, doi = {10.1093/conphys/coad094}, pmid = {38425367}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Climate change will exacerbate the negative effects associated with the introduction of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invasive species in relation to environmental warming is therefore a fundamental task in ecology and conservation. The Baltic Sea is currently threatened by several local stressors and the highest increase in sea surface temperature of the world's large marine ecosystems. These new thermal conditions can further favour the spreading of the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), a fish of Ponto-Caspian origin, currently well established in the southern and central parts of the Baltic Sea. This study aims to assess the thermal habitat suitability of the round goby in the Baltic Sea considering the past and future conditions. The study combines sightings records with known physiological models of aerobic performance and sea surface temperatures. Physiological models read these temperatures, at sighting times and locations, to determine their effects on the aerobic metabolic scope (AMS) of the fish, a measure of its energetic potential in relation to environmental conditions. The geographical mapping of the AMS was used to describe the changes in habitat suitability during the past 3 decades and for climatic predictions (until 2100) showing that the favourable thermal habitat in the Baltic Sea has increased during the past 32 years and will continue to do so in all the applied climate model predictions. Particularly, the predicted new thermal conditions do not cause any reduction in the AMS of round goby populations, while the wintertime cold ranges are likely expected to preserve substantial areas from invasion. The results of this research can guide future monitoring programs increasing the chance to detect this invader in novel areas.}, }
@article {pmid38424345, year = {2024}, author = {Ghosh, AK and Azan, A and Basu, G and Bernstein, J and Gillespie, E and Gordon, LB and Krishnamurthy, S and LeFrancois, D and Marcus, EN and Tejani, M and Townley, T and Rimler, E and Whelan, H and , }, title = {Building Climate Change into Medical Education: A Society of General Internal Medicine Position Statement.}, journal = {Journal of general internal medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38424345}, issn = {1525-1497}, support = {1K08HL163329/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Building expertise in climate and planetary health among healthcare professionals cannot come with greater urgency as the threats from climate change become increasingly apparent. Current and future healthcare professionals-particularly internists-will increasingly need to understand the interconnectedness of natural systems and human health to better serve their patients longitudinally. Despite this, few national medical societies and accreditation bodies espouse frameworks for climate change and planetary health-related education at the undergraduate (UME), graduate (GME), and continuing (CME) medical education level. As a community of medical educators with an enduring interest in climate change and planetary health, the Society of General Internal Medicine (SGIM) recognizes the need to explicitly define structured educational opportunities and core competencies in both UME and GME as well as pathways for faculty development. In this position statement, we build from the related SGIM Climate and Health position statement, and review and synthesize existing position statements made by US-based medical societies and accreditation bodies that focus on climate change and planetary health-related medical education, identify gaps using Bloom's Hierarchy, and provide recommendations on behalf of SGIM regarding the development of climate and planetary health curricula development. Identified gaps include (1) limited systematic approach to climate and planetary health medical education at all levels; (2) minimal emphasis on learner-driven approaches; (3) limited focus on physician and learner well-being; and (4) limited role for health equity and climate justice. Recommendations include a call to relevant accreditation bodies to explicitly include climate change and planetary health as a competency, extend the structural competency framework to climate change and planetary health to build climate justice, proactively include learners in curricular development and teaching, and ensure resources and support to design and implement climate and planetary health-focused education that includes well-being and resiliency.}, }
@article {pmid38423136, year = {2024}, author = {Li, D and Wang, X and Jiang, K and An, R and Li, Y and Liu, D}, title = {The impact of climate change and the conservation of the keystone Asian honeybee using niche models and systematic prioritization.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toae018}, pmid = {38423136}, issn = {1938-291X}, support = {2022NY-131//Key R&amp;D Project in Shaanxi Province/ ; 31971431//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Global warming has seriously disturbed the Earth's ecosystems, and in this context, Asian honeybee (Apis cerana) has experienced a dramatic decline in recent decades. Here, we examined both direct and indirect effects of climate change on A. cerana through ecological niche modeling of A. cerana, and its disease pathogens (i.e., Chinese sacbrood virus and Melissococcus plutonius) and enemies (i.e., Galleria mellonella and Vespa mandarinia). Ecological niche modeling predicts that climate change will increase the potential suitability of A. cerana, but it will also cause some of the original habitat areas to become unsuitable. Outbreak risks of Chinese sacbrood disease and European Foulbrood will increase dramatically, while those of G. mellonella and V. mandarinia will decrease only slightly. Thus, climate change will produce an unfavorable situation for even maintaining some A. cerana populations in China in the future. Genetic structure analyses showed that the A. cerana population from Hainan Island had significant genetic differentiation from that of the mainland, and there was almost no gene flow between the 2, suggesting that urgent measures are needed to protect the unique genetic resources there. Through taking an integrated planning technique with the Marxan approach, we optimized conservation planning, and identified potential nature reserves (mainly in western Sichuan and southern Tibet) for conservation of A. cerana populations. Our results can provide insights into the potential impact of climate change on A. cerana, and will help to promote the conservation of the keystone honeybee in China and the long-term sustainability of its ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid38422852, year = {2024}, author = {Absalan, F and Hatam, F and Prévost, M and Barbeau, B and Bichai, F}, title = {Climate change and future water demand: Implications for chlorine and trihalomethanes management in water distribution systems.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {355}, number = {}, pages = {120470}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120470}, pmid = {38422852}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The global change in surface water quality calls for increased preparedness of drinking water utilities. The increasing frequency of extreme climatic events combined with global warming can impact source and treated water characteristics such as temperature and natural organic matter. On the other hand, water saving policies in response to water and energy crisis in some countries can aggravate the situation by increasing the water residence time in the drinking water distribution system (DWDS). This study investigates the individual and combined effect of increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC), increased temperature, and reduced water demand on fate and transport of chlorine and trihalomethanes (THMs) within a full-scale DWDS in Canada. Chlorine and THM prediction models were calibrated with laboratory experiments and implemented in EPANET-MATLAB toolkit for prediction in the DWDS under different combinations of DOC, temperature, and demand. The duration of low chlorine residuals (<0.2 mg/L) and high THM (>80 μg/L) periods within a day in each scenario was reported using a reliability index. Low-reliability zones prone to microbial regrowth or high THM exposure were then delineated geographically on the city DWDS. Results revealed that water demand reduction primarily affects chlorine availability, with less concern for THM formation. The reduction in nodal chlorine reliability was gradual with rising temperature and DOC of the treated water and reducing water demand. Nodal THM reliability remained unchanged until certain thresholds were reached, i.e., temperature >25 °C for waters with DOC <1.52 mg/L, and DOC >2.2 mg/L for waters with temperature = 17 °C. At these critical thresholds, an abrupt network-wide THM exceedance of 80 μg/L occurred. Under higher DOC and temperature levels in future, employing the proposed approach revealed that increasing the applied chlorine dosage (which is a conventional method used to ensure sufficient chlorine coverage) results in elevated exposure toTHMs and is not recommended. This approach aids water utilities in assessing the effectiveness of different intervention measures to solve water quality problems, identify site-specific thresholds leading to major decreases in system reliability, and integrate climate adaptation into water safety management.}, }
@article {pmid38424143, year = {2024}, author = {Singh, AP and De, K and Uniyal, VP and Sathyakumar, S}, title = {Unveiling of climate change-driven decline of suitable habitat for Himalayan bumblebees.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {4983}, pmid = {38424143}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Insect pollinators, especially bumblebees are rapidly declining from their natural habitat in the mountain and temperate regions of the world due to climate change and other anthropogenic activities. We still lack reliable information about the current and future habitat conditions of bumblebees in the Himalaya. In this study, we used the maximum entropy algorithm for SDM to look at current and future (in 2050 and 2070) suitable habitats for bumblebees in the Himalaya. We found that the habitat conditions in the Himalayan mountain range do not have a very promising future as suitable habitat for most species will decrease over the next 50 years. By 2050, less than 10% of the Himalayan area will remain a suitable habitat for about 72% of species, and by 2070 this number will be raised to 75%. During this time period, the existing suitable habitat of bumblebees will be declined but some species will find new suitable habitat which clearly indicates possibility of habitat range shift by Himalayan bumblebees. Overall, about 15% of the Himalayan region is currently highly suitable for bumblebees, which should be considered as priority areas for the conservation of these pollinators. Since suitable habitats for bumblebees lie between several countries, nations that share international borders in the Himalayan region should have international agreements for comprehensive pollinator diversity conservation to protect these indispensable ecosystem service providers.}, }
@article {pmid38424076, year = {2024}, author = {Cox, PM and Williamson, MS and Friedlingstein, P and Jones, CD and Raoult, N and Rogelj, J and Varney, RM}, title = {Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {1885}, pmid = {38424076}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {742472//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council)/ ; 821003//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; }, abstract = {Earth System Models (ESMs) continue to diagnose a wide range of carbon budgets for each level of global warming. Here, we present emergent constraints on the carbon budget as a function of global warming, which combine the available ESM historical simulations and future projections for a range of scenarios, with observational estimates of global warming and anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the present day. We estimate mean and likely ranges for cumulative carbon budgets for the Paris targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming of 812 [691, 933] PgC and 1048 [881, 1216] PgC, which are more than 10% larger than the ensemble mean values from the CMIP6 models. The linearity between cumulative emissions and global warming is found to be maintained at least until 4 °C, and is consistent with an effective Transient Climate Response to Emissions (eTCRE) of 2.1 [1.8, 2.6] °C/1000PgC, from a global warming of 1.2 °C onwards.}, }
@article {pmid38424068, year = {2024}, author = {Heckman, RW and Pereira, CG and Aspinwall, MJ and Juenger, TE}, title = {Physiological Responses of C4 Perennial Bioenergy Grasses to Climate Change: Causes, Consequences, and Constraints.}, journal = {Annual review of plant biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-arplant-070623-093952}, pmid = {38424068}, issn = {1545-2123}, abstract = {C4 perennial bioenergy grasses are an economically and ecologically important group whose responses to climate change will be important to the future bioeconomy. These grasses are highly productive and frequently possess large geographic ranges and broad environmental tolerances, which may contribute to the evolution of ecotypes that differ in physiological acclimation capacity and the evolution of distinct functional strategies. C4 perennial bioenergy grasses are predicted to thrive under climate change-C4 photosynthesis likely evolved to enhance photosynthetic efficiency under stressful conditions of low [CO2], high temperature, and drought-although few studies have examined how these species will respond to combined stresses or to extremes of temperature and precipitation. Important targets for C4 perennial bioenergy production in a changing world, such as sustainability and resilience, can benefit from combining knowledge of C4 physiology with recent advances in crop improvement, especially genomic selection. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Plant Biology, Volume 75 is May 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.}, }
@article {pmid38424058, year = {2024}, author = {Mewes, L and Tuitjer, L and Dirksmeier, P}, title = {Exploring the variances of climate change opinions in Germany at a fine-grained local scale.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {1867}, pmid = {38424058}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {How and why climate change opinions vary within countries at a small geographic scale is rarely investigated. Previous research has focused on public opinions at the individual or national level, leaving local differences within countries and their underlying factors largely unexplored. The lack of research at subnational levels is problematic, as adaptation and mitigation policies depend on collective support and action involving multiple stakeholders at the local scale. It is thus crucial to identify geographic differences in climate change opinions and to unravel their determinants at a fine-grained local scale. We examine public CCOs across 4,667 municipalities in Germany by relying on a representative survey of households. Here we show substantial and systematic differences in public climate change opinions across locations that manifest between urban vs. rural and prospering vs. declining areas. Besides these geographic features, more complex historical and cultural differences between places play an important role.}, }
@article {pmid38422269, year = {2024}, author = {Rajabalinejad, A and Nozari, N and Badr, BR}, title = {The effect of climate change on agricultural production in Iran.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {83}, number = {}, pages = {e277383}, doi = {10.1590/1519-6984.277383}, pmid = {38422269}, issn = {1678-4375}, abstract = {The issue of climate change caused by global warming has become a major concern and challenge around the world, requiring comprehensive countermeasures. Agriculture is the most affected part of climate change and Iran's agriculture economy is at risk because of hot and dry and damages due global climate changes. This study investigates the effects of climatic variables temperature, such as precipitation, carbon and dioxide emission on total crop production in Iran from 1971 to 2020 using a fully modified conventional least squares econometric model (FMOLS). Chemical fertilizer and crop area variables, as well as fixed capital in agricultural have machinery, also been used as indicators of technology. The results showed that all variables had a significant effect on production. The average annual temperature and total annual rainfall its had an inverse U-shaped relationship with production, and were significant. Fertilizer and crop area variables had a positive effect, while CO2 had a negative relationship on total crop production in Iran. The findings of this study can be used to provide strategic plans for policymakers in the face of climate change. It is suggested that the government invest more in the mechanization of the agricultural sector and provide facilities and credits with priority given to farmers' education and the use of temperature-resistant varieties, and also act regionally against climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38422144, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, H and Liu, J and Klaar, M and Chen, A and Gudmundsson, L and Holden, J}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change has influenced global river flow seasonality.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {383}, number = {6686}, pages = {1009-1014}, doi = {10.1126/science.adi9501}, pmid = {38422144}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Riverine ecosystems have adapted to natural discharge variations across seasons. However, evidence suggesting that climate change has already impacted magnitudes of river flow seasonality is limited to local studies, mainly focusing on changes of mean or extreme flows. This study introduces the use of apportionment entropy as a robust measure to assess flow-volume nonuniformity across seasons, enabling a global analysis. We found that ~21% of long-term river gauging stations exhibit significant alterations in seasonal flow distributions, but two-thirds of these are unrelated to trends in annual mean discharge. By combining a data-driven runoff reconstruction with state-of-the-art hydrological simulations, we identified a discernible weakening of river flow seasonality in northern high latitudes (above 50°N), a phenomenon directly linked to anthropogenic climate forcing.}, }
@article {pmid38422027, year = {2024}, author = {Ortega, MA and Cayuela, L and Griffith, DM and Camacho, A and Coronado, IM and Del Castillo, RF and Figueroa-Rangel, BL and Fonseca, W and Garibaldi, C and Kelly, DL and Letcher, SG and Meave, JA and Merino-Martín, L and Meza, VH and Ochoa-Gaona, S and Olvera-Vargas, M and Ramírez-Marcial, N and Tun-Dzul, FJ and Valdez-Hernández, M and Velázquez, E and White, DA and Williams-Linera, G and Zahawi, RA and Muñoz, J}, title = {Climate change increases threat to plant diversity in tropical forests of Central America and southern Mexico.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {e0297840}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0297840}, pmid = {38422027}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061-2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region's (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species' vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58-67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species' relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38421797, year = {2024}, author = {Lokmic-Tomkins, Z and Friel, G and Rodríguez, DEC and Huffling, K}, title = {Why COP28 outcomes matter: insights on addressing climate change, fossil fuels, and global health resilience.}, journal = {Contemporary nurse}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-4}, doi = {10.1080/10376178.2024.2322987}, pmid = {38421797}, issn = {1839-3535}, }
@article {pmid38421348, year = {2024}, author = {Rezza, G}, title = {Climate change and the spread of Aedes mosquito-borne viruses in Europe.}, journal = {Pathogens and global health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1080/20477724.2024.2323842}, pmid = {38421348}, issn = {2047-7732}, abstract = {Several outbreaks of chikungunya and dengue occurred on Mediterranean coasts during the hot season in the last two decades. Aedes albopictus was the vector involved in all the events. As a consequence of climate change, the 'Tiger' mosquito is now spreading through central Europe, and in the summer of 2023, for the first time, mosquito control measures were implemented in Paris to prevent autochthonous transmission of dengue. Rapid changes in the distribution of tropical disease vectors need to be taken into account in future risk assessment activities.}, }
@article {pmid38421157, year = {2024}, author = {Li, L and Pang, YZ and Sun, GQ and Ruan, S}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Vegetation Patterns in Altay Prefecture, China.}, journal = {Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/imammb/dqae002}, pmid = {38421157}, issn = {1477-8602}, abstract = {Altay Prefecture, a typical arid region in northwestern China, has experienced the climate transition from warming-drying to warming-wetting since 1980s and has attracted widespread attention. Nonetheless, it is still unclear how climate change has influenced the distribution of vegetation in this region. In this paper, a reaction-diffusion model of the climate-vegetation system is proposed to study the impact of climate change (precipitation, temperature and carbon dioxide concentration) on vegetation patterns in Altay Prefecture. Our results indicate that the tendency of vegetation growth in Altay Prefecture improved gradually from 1985 to 2010. Under the current climate conditions, the increase of precipitation results in the change of vegetation pattern structures, and eventually vegetation coverage tends to be uniform. Moreover, we found that there exists an optimal temperature where the spot vegetation pattern structure remains stable. Furthermore, the increase in carbon dioxide concentration induces vegetation pattern transition. Based on four climate change scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we used the power law range (PLR) to predict the optimal scenario for the sustainable development of the vegetation ecosystem in Altay Prefecture.}, }
@article {pmid38420456, year = {2024}, author = {Wan, Y and Chen, S and Liu, J and Jin, L}, title = {Brownfield-related studies in the context of climate change: A comprehensive review and future prospects.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {e25784}, pmid = {38420456}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The global climate change events are expected to augment the vulnerability of persistent organic pollutants within the global brownfield areas to a certain extent, consequently heightening the risk crises faced by these brownfields amidst the backdrop of global environmental changes. However, studies addressing brownfield risks from the perspective of climate change have received limited attention. Nonetheless, the detrimental consequences of brownfield risks are intrinsically linked to strategies for mitigating and adapting to sustainable urban development, emphasizing the critical importance of their far-reaching implications. This relevance extends to concerns about environmental quality, safety, health risks, and the efficacy of chosen regeneration strategies, including potential secondary pollution risks. This comprehensive review systematically surveys pertinent articles published between 1998 and 2023. A selective analysis was conducted on 133 articles chosen for their thematic relevance. The findings reveal that: (1) Under the backdrop of the climate change process, brownfield restoration is necessitated to provide scientific and precise guidance. The integration of brownfield considerations with the dynamics of climate change has progressively evolved into a unified framework, gradually shaping a research paradigm characterized by "comprehensive + multi-scale + quantitative" methodologies; (2) Research themes coalesce into five prominent clusters: "Aggregation of Brownfield Problem Analysis", "Precision Enhancement of Brownfield Identification through Information Technology", "Diversification of Brownfield Reutilization Assessment", "Process-Oriented Approaches to Brownfield Restoration Strategies", and "Expansion of Ecological Service Functions in Brownfield Contexts"; (3) Application methodologies encompass five key facets: "Temporal and Spatial Distribution Patterns of Pollutants", "Mechanisms and Correlations of Pollution Effects", "Evaluation of Pollution Risks", "Assessment of Brownfield Restoration Strategies", and "Integration of Brownfield Regeneration with Spatial Planning". Future brownfield research from the climate change perspective is poised to reflect characteristics such as "High-Precision Prediction, Comprehensive Dimensionality, Full-Cycle Evaluation, Low-Risk Exposure, and Commitment to Sustainable Development".}, }
@article {pmid38419768, year = {2024}, author = {Kempf, M}, title = {A dataset to model Levantine landcover and land-use change connected to climate change, the Arab Spring and COVID-19.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {53}, number = {}, pages = {110198}, pmid = {38419768}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {The Levant is highly vulnerable to climate change and experiences prolonged heat waves that have led to societal crises and population displacement. In addition, the region has been impacted by further socio-political turmoil at least since 2010, including the Syrian civil war and currently the escalation of the so-called Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, which strained neighbouring countries like Jordan due to the influx of Syrian refugees and increases population vulnerability to governmental decision-making. Jordan, in particular, has seen rapid population growth and significant changes in land-use and infrastructure, leading to over-exploitation of the landscape through irrigation and unregulated construction activity. This article uses climate data, satellite imagery, and land cover information in a multicomponent trend analysis to illustrate the substantial increase in construction activity and to highlight the intricate relationship between climate change predictions and current socio-political development in the Levant. The analyses were performed using annual and seasonal composites of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) datasets with a spatial resolution of 250 m compared to climate indices of the GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) Noah Land Surface Model L4 dataset for the period 2001-2023. Surface reflectance and climatic parameters were then evaluated on the basis of socio-cultural factors, such as population dynamics, governmental decision-making, water withdrawal regulations, and built-up change as a result of large-scale migration processes. All analyses were conducted using R-software and can be reproduced and replicated using the code and the data provided in this article and the repository.}, }
@article {pmid38419409, year = {2024}, author = {Squires, E and Whiting, L and Petty, J}, title = {Effects of climate change on the health of children and young people.}, journal = {Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.7748/ns.2024.e12308}, pmid = {38419409}, issn = {2047-9018}, abstract = {The effects of climate change, such as air pollution and extreme heat events, can adversely affect the physical and mental health of children and young people at all ages. This article explores the effects of climate change on children and young people's development and explains the effects of air pollution and heatwaves on their health. The article also discusses how children and young people are knowledgeable and concerned about the effects of climate change and can offer new perspectives on addressing these effects. Finally, the authors consider the role of nurses in raising awareness of the adverse effects of climate change on children's health, incorporating climate change in their practice and promoting opportunities for children's involvement in healthcare decision-making, strategies and policy development.}, }
@article {pmid38418986, year = {2024}, author = {John, L and Shekede, MD and Gwitira, I and Mazhindu, AN and Pfukenyi, DM and Chikerema, S}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {632}, pmid = {38418986}, issn = {1471-2458}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution is key in formulating effective control strategies. In this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model the current and future distribution of anthrax occurrence in Zimbabwe.<br><br>METHODS: Bioclimatic variables derived from the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Model were used to model the disease. Collinearity testing was conducted on the 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation to remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity were used for anthrax habitat suitability modelling. Two future climate change scenarios for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Model evaluation was done using true skill, Kappa statistics and receiver operating characteristics.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that under current bioclimatic conditions, eastern and western districts&#xa0;of Zimbabwe were modelled as&#xa0;highly suitable, central districts moderately suitable and southern parts marginally suitable for anthrax occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated that the suitable (8%) and highly suitable (7%) areas for anthrax occurrence would increase under RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, a respective decrease (11%) and marginal increase (0.6%) of suitable and highly suitable areas for anthrax occurrence were predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentage contribution of the predictors varied for the different scenarios; Bio6 and Bio18 for the current scenario, Bio2, Bio4 and Bio9 for the RCP4.5 and Bio3 and Bio15 for the RCP8.5 scenarios.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed that areas currently suitable for anthrax should be targeted for surveillance and prevention. The predicted future anthrax distribution can be used to guide and prioritise surveillance and control activities and optimise allocation of limited resources. In the marginally to moderately suitable areas, effective disease surveillance systems and awareness need to be put in place for early detection of outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations and other control measures including collaborative 'One Health' strategies need to be implemented in the predicted highly suitable areas. In the southern part where a high decrease in suitability was predicted, continued monitoring would be necessary to detect incursions early.}, }
@article {pmid38417512, year = {2024}, author = {Fernández, S and Arce, G and García-Alaminos, &#xc1; and Cazcarro, I and Arto, I}, title = {Climate change as a veiled driver of migration in Bangladesh and Ghana.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171210}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171210}, pmid = {38417512}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {People living in deltaic areas in developing countries are especially prone to suffer the effects from natural disasters due to their geographical and economic structure. Climate change is contributing to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events affecting the environmental conditions of deltas, threatening the socioeconomic development of people and, eventually, triggering migration as an adaptation strategy. Climate change will likely contribute to worsening environmental stress in deltas, and understanding the relations between climate change, environmental impacts, socioeconomic conditions, and migration is emerging as a key element for planning climate adaptation. In this study, we use data from migration surveys and econometric techniques to analyse the extent to which environmental impacts affect individual migration decision-making in two delta regions in Bangladesh and Ghana. The results show that, in both deltas, climatic shocks that negatively affect economic security are significant drivers of migration, although the surveyed households do not identify environmental pressures as the root cause of the displacement. Furthermore, environmental impacts affecting food security and crop and livestock production are also significant as events inducing people to migrate, but only in Ghana. We also find that suffering from environmental stress can intensify or reduce the effects of socioeconomic drivers. In this sense, adverse climatic shocks may not only have a direct impact on migration but may also condition migration decisions indirectly through the occupation, the education, or the marital status of the person. We conclude that although climate change and related environmental pressures are not perceived as key drivers of migration, they affect migration decisions through indirect channels (e.g., reducing economic security or reinforcing the effect of socioeconomic drivers).}, }
@article {pmid38418475, year = {2024}, author = {Gurung, K and Field, KJ and Batterman, SA and Poulton, SW and Mills, BJW}, title = {Geographic range of plants drives long-term climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {1805}, pmid = {38418475}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {NE/S009663/1//RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; }, abstract = {Long computation times in vegetation and climate models hamper our ability to evaluate the potentially powerful role of plants on weathering and carbon sequestration over the Phanerozoic Eon. Simulated vegetation over deep time is often homogenous, and disregards the spatial distribution of plants and the impact of local climatic variables on plant function. Here we couple a fast vegetation model (FLORA) to a spatially-resolved long-term climate-biogeochemical model (SCION), to assess links between plant geographical range, the long-term carbon cycle and climate. Model results show lower rates of carbon fixation and up to double the previously predicted atmospheric CO2 concentration due to a limited plant geographical range over the arid Pangea supercontinent. The Mesozoic dispersion of the continents increases modelled plant geographical range from 65% to > 90%, amplifying global CO2 removal, consistent with geological data. We demonstrate that plant geographical range likely exerted a major, under-explored control on long-term climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38415003, year = {2023}, author = {Alibudbud, RC}, title = {Climate change and mental health in the Philippines.}, journal = {BJPsych international}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {44-46}, pmid = {38415003}, issn = {2056-4740}, abstract = {The mental health repercussions of the climate crisis are observed annually in the Philippines, one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries. This paper explores these repercussions by examining the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan. It shows that mental health problems persisted beyond the typhoon's immediate aftermath among a large number of survivors. Since the mental health system was fragile, the affected community improved their mental health services through the help of local and international non-governmental organisations. Nonetheless, several challenges must be addressed as the country faces the climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid38414958, year = {2023}, author = {Kaya, AA and Aydin, A and Bağcivan, G}, title = {Climate change in Türkiye and its impact on oncology nurses.}, journal = {Ecancermedicalscience}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {1623}, pmid = {38414958}, issn = {1754-6605}, abstract = {Climate change threatens human life and health by negatively affecting the basic components of health such as clean air, safe drinking water, nutritious food supply, and safe shelter. Türkiye is a country that is largely exposed to climate change with its cosmopolitan location, which is a bridge between Asia and Europe. Due to climate change, serious effects are seen in all sectors from energy to agriculture, from the economy to health. Climate change is defined as the most important global health threat of the next century, and the problems it brings are seen as the most important pressure factor for the life opportunities of future generations. Food and fresh water availability, rising sea levels, abnormal weather events, migration, and diseases are thought to affect human health. A multidisciplinary approach is required to adapt to climate change's health effects and reduce its negative health effects. In addition, it is predicted that diseases that are about to disappear will re-emerge and become threats. It is thought that as a result of the contamination of food and water resources with the changing ecosystem, some infections will increase and society will face them. Nurses are both affected by climate change and its effects on public health. Nurses who remain in this situation have a great role in providing effective awareness for raising public awareness. In recent years, oncology clinics have not been affected by fire, earthquakes, and pandemics in our country. In this respect, it can be stated that the health service in Turkish oncology clinics is carried out uninterruptedly and by experts in the field. We learned during the pandemic that the whole world is unprepared for the future effects of climate change. In this direction, nurses should think about solutions for the problems related to climate change in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38414956, year = {2023}, author = {Samba, VL and Mezgebu, E and Habtes, H and Oti, NO and Mangongolo, BM and Bafumba, R and Burns, K and Sierra, MFO and Challinor, J and de Villiers, M}, title = {Climate change and oncology nursing: the African perspective.}, journal = {Ecancermedicalscience}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {1621}, pmid = {38414956}, issn = {1754-6605}, abstract = {Climate change is impacting the lives of millions around the world and exacerbating existing challenges in healthcare globally. Although Africa contributes only 2%-3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, it suffers a disproportionate share of the environmental impact. High-income countries dominate the global discourse on climate change, while their continued utilisation of extractive policies exacerbates climate hazards and impacts economies in regions not responsible for the damage. Cancer is on the rise and constitutes a significant public health burden in low- and middle-income countries, yet little is known about the impact of climate change on oncology nursing on the African continent. To address the ways that climate change is exacerbating existing challenges and adding new difficulties for oncology care, it is essential that the expertise of professionals working in settings that are most impacted by the threats of climate change is amplified if climate crisis risks are to be effectively mitigated. Seven African oncology nurses from across sub-Saharan Africa were reflexively interviewed by voice over internet protocol (VOIP) in English to learn about their understanding of climate change and experiences with its impact on nursing care. Using a conceptual framework to map the impact of climate change on health and considering the vulnerability and social capacity of patients with cancer, our findings show how existing challenges to oncology nursing care are exacerbated by climate change on the continent. Food insecurity, national economic dependency on the agricultural sector, economic inequality, social vulnerability and isolation, transportation challenges, and the immunocompromised status of patients with cancer are all key concerns for oncology nurses in this context. We also present the nurses' specific recommendations for governments, hospital authorities, and oncology nurses regarding climate change mitigation, adaptation, and event response strategies. With this work, we aim to lay a foundation for further investigation and action to mitigate the oncoming challenges of climate disaster for oncology nurses across sub-Saharan Africa and the patients and families they care for.}, }
@article {pmid38414950, year = {2023}, author = {Hawaamdah, J and Fowler, M}, title = {The impact of climate change on cancer nursing in Palestine.}, journal = {Ecancermedicalscience}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {ed129}, pmid = {38414950}, issn = {1754-6605}, abstract = {Cancer is the third leading cause of death in Palestine, with many cancers diagnosed at a late stage. In contrast to the developed world, two thirds of cancer diagnoses occur between the ages of 15 and 64, moreover, 10% of all cancer diagnoses occur in children under the age of 10 (compared to 0.05% of all new cancer diagnoses in the UK). Cancer nursing as a speciality in Palestine is newly established in the last 5 years; partly helped by the introduction of the Higher Diploma in Cancer and Palliative Care Nursing, and more recently the delivery of the first intake of the Master of Science in Cancer and Palliative Care Nursing at Bethlehem University. There are many challenges faced by cancer patients and nurses in Palestine; there is only one facility in the West Bank that delivers radiotherapy, 2 PET-CT scanners for the whole of the West Bank, with no PET-CT or radiotherapy facilities in Gaza. There are 2 haematology units in the West Bank that perform autologous stem cell transplants for adults and any haematology patient (adult or child) requiring an allogeneic stem cell/bone marrow transplant has to be referred to neighbouring Israel or Jordan. Climate change might have both a direct and indirect impact on the growth of cancers and on cancer treatment and oncology nurses. Over the last 150 years the planet has warmed by over one degree Celsius resulting in disastrous consequences for the environment. Nurses make up the largest number of the healthcare workforce and are ideally placed to have a positive impact on the global warming crisis due to their leadership roles as well as their work in health promotion. They equally do a lot to help cancer patients to deal with its effects and often care for patients from marginalised groups. It is important for nurses to take the lead and move immediately to make health systems more resistant to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38414942, year = {2023}, author = {Arias, NM and Durán, &#xc1;AA and Lozano, MYR and de la Serna, CDLR and Olarte-Sierra, M&#xcd;F and Challinor, J and Arbelaez, YVG and Díaz, MYM and Rodríguez, LDR}, title = {Climate change and cancer: an oncology nurse perspective in two Colombian regions.}, journal = {Ecancermedicalscience}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {1620}, pmid = {38414942}, issn = {1754-6605}, abstract = {Given the lack of publications and public policies addressing the relationship between climate change and cancer care in Colombia, we present an exploration of the perspectives and communication practices of a group of nurses from Valle del Cauca and Antioquia. We provide a context based on the available literature on climate change and general health then provide an overview of cancer in the country. Next, we present how oncology nurses have incorporated information about strategies their patients can use to mitigate the effects of climate change on their health. We highlight the centrality of patient-centered communication using a framework from the US National Cancer Institute) and the fundamental role nurses have in patients' experiences throughout their treatment. We conclude with the need to investigate oncology nurse communication practices in other Colombian hospitals, with consideration of culture, cancer stigma, barriers to care and other factors that may influence successful climate change mitigation and to better understand how other Latin American oncology nurses are addressing this serious challenge.}, }
@article {pmid38414932, year = {2023}, author = {Tanay, MA and Quiambao-Udan, J and Soriano, O and Aquino, G and Valera, PM}, title = {Filipino nurses' experiences and perceptions of the impact of climate change on healthcare delivery and cancer care in the Philippines: a qualitative exploratory survey.}, journal = {Ecancermedicalscience}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {1622}, pmid = {38414932}, issn = {1754-6605}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Because of its geographical location, the Philippines is vulnerable to the effects of climate change and almost all types of natural hazards such as typhoons, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. Cancer is one of the leading causes of death in the Philippines and is one of the major public health concerns. Little is known about how climate change affects cancer services in the Philippines. As the biggest workforce in most institutions, having awareness and knowledge about disaster preparedness and management among nurses can help in reducing the devastating effects of natural disasters on health services. Thus, it is important to understand Filipino nurses' experiences and perception of the impact of climate change on healthcare delivery and cancer care in the Philippines.<br><br>AIM: This study explored Filipino nurses' experiences and perception of the impact of climate change on healthcare delivery and cancer care in the Philippines.<br><br>METHODS: This is a descriptive qualitative exploratory study. Participants were recruited using the snowballing technique and completed an online survey. Forty-six nurses who were working in Luzon, Philippines at the time of the data collection were included in the analysis. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.<br><br>FINDINGS: Three themes were identified, namely: (1) effects of climate change causing disruption and delay in provision of patient care, (2) impact of climate change on nurses and a deep sense of duty, and (3) perceived impact on patients with cancer.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our study findings contribute to the existing literature that focuses on the impact of climate change-related events such as typhoons and floods on healthcare services and nursing staff. Several areas of cancer care are also impacted, particularly delays in treatment such as chemotherapy. Despite the challenges, the nurses in our study demonstrated a deep sense of commitment in carrying out their roles.}, }
@article {pmid38413648, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, K and de Schrijver, E and Sivaraj, S and Sera, F and Scovronick, N and Jiang, L and Roye, D and Lavigne, E and Kyselý, J and Urban, A and Schneider, A and Huber, V and Madureira, J and Mistry, MN and Cvijanovic, I and ,  and Gasparrini, A and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM}, title = {Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {1796}, pmid = {38413648}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {820655//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 101032087//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 Marie Sk&#x142;odowska-Curie Actions (H2020 Excellent Science - Marie Sk&#x142;odowska-Curie Actions)/ ; MR/V034162/1//RCUK | Medical Research Council (MRC)/ ; }, abstract = {Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.}, }
@article {pmid38411915, year = {2024}, author = {Ibrahim, AE and Salem, HA and Abdelhalim, A}, title = {Environmental implications of three Pleurotus strain growths for water remediation in the perspective of climate change in New Egyptian Delta.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38411915}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Recently, the integrated different interdisciplinary studies derived the environmental solutions of the climate change impacts (e.g., cultivation, wastewater treatment, and managing groundwater resources) (Mesalhy et al. 2020, and Gobashy et al. 2021). Thus, this paper focused on the application of bioremediation to maximize the use of wastewater for new reclamation areas in the Northwest Egyptian desert (New Egyptian Delta (NED). In the NED project, the drainage water samples collected from Nile Delta drains will provide the main unconventional water resources for irrigation through the new Hammam canal. Therefore, three Pleurotus strains were grown moderately on two natural media, the first containing Salvia L. (sage) extract (MDA) and the second containing Thymus vulgaris L. (origanum thymus Kuntze, Thymus collinus Salisb) (TDA) extract replacing potato infusions in standard PDA. Pleurotus ostreatus (Jacquin; Kummer) strain records the highest growth among the three tested fungi on modified media. PO records 4.49 and 4.41 cm on (MDA) and (TDA), respectively. There is a marked decrease in the majority of heavy metal concentrations on sterile drainage water amended with PD broth and inoculated with three tested Pleurotus strains individually. At the end of the incubation period, Pleurotus ostereatus which expressed in abbreviation (PO) are more efficient in the removal of Al, Co, Cr, and Ni by 53.15, 95.87, 58.47, and 85.07%; respectively. Pleurorotus pulmonarius (Fr.) which symbolized (PP) is more potent in the removal of Cd, Si, Sn, Sr, and V by 70.37, 56.59, 41.19, 52.78, and 96.24%; respectively. Pleurotus floridanus (NZOR) which indicated as (PF) is actively over the former species in the removal of Ba, Fe, and Mo by 87.84, 46.67, and 97.34%; respectively. Cu, Mn, Pb, As, and Se could not be detected as the control sample recorded measurements below 0.009 mg L[-1]. An unexpected increase in Zn among the different treatments was detected from 05.04 to 07.01%.}, }
@article {pmid38411188, year = {2024}, author = {Canaday, FT and Georas, SN and Croft, DP}, title = {Examining the impact of air pollution, climate change, and social determinants of health on asthma and environmental justice.}, journal = {Current opinion in pulmonary medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/MCP.0000000000001065}, pmid = {38411188}, issn = {1531-6971}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this review, we discuss the current literature examining the impact air pollution and climate change has on asthma onset, control, and exacerbation. This review also addresses the risk of exposure to specific disproportionately affected communities, highlighting health disparities in exposure and asthma outcomes.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Recent studies have shifted from highlighting the associations between asthma exacerbations and indoor and outdoor air pollution. Studies are now focused on confirming the association of asthma incidence from these same exposures. Many studies have linked particulate matter to adverse asthma outcomes, however, the pollutant exposures that pose the greatest risk and the effect of natural disasters fueled by climate change are under current study. Some studies have observed that the true burden that pollutant exposures have on asthma outcomes occurs at the intersection of exposure and vulnerability. Future studies in this area will address social determinants of health, societal factors such as redlining and other systemic racism practices.<br><br>SUMMARY: Although decades of research support the causal link between gaseous and particulate air pollution and the exacerbation of preexisting asthma, recent studies suggest air pollution can cause incident (new onset) asthma. Studies have started to focus on the underlying drivers of poor outcomes in asthma. Many of the structural impediments to high quality asthma care at the society level (e.g. poverty, redlining, systemic racism) also are risk factors for worsened climate events and air pollution exposure. The individuals in these disproportionately affected groups are doubly affected by worsened exposure and worsened access to care for the resultant asthma exacerbations or incident asthma. More research is needed to understand the specific climate and air pollution mitigation efforts where disproportionately affected communities would derive the most benefit.}, }
@article {pmid38410793, year = {2024}, author = {Mehlenbacher, AR and Doody, S and Eckert, C and Mehlenbacher, B}, title = {Prolepsis and Rendering Futures in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Reports.}, journal = {Written communication}, volume = {41}, number = {2}, pages = {352-377}, pmid = {38410793}, issn = {0741-0883}, abstract = {Rhetorical figures of speech provide important analytical frames to chart how arguments operate within genres and within genre ecologies. Varieties of the figure prolepsis allow for the rendering of future time or fact in the present, which can be a powerful rhetorical inducement toward social and political action. In this article, we examine how anticipatory arguments drawn from complex data shape a key genre for public and policy-facing work on the climate crisis-the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Synthesis Report's (SYR) Statement for Policy Makers (SPM). We examine how the rhetorical figure of prolepsis operates within this genre to understand the anticipatory arguments and logics emerging from the synthesis of scientific findings and their reporting. Pairing figural studies and Rhetorical Genre Studies, we further offer an approach to investigate how these patterned operations of language might intersect in their rhetorical workings.}, }
@article {pmid38409378, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, S and Zhou, Z and Liu, J and Li, J and Jia, Y and Wang, H and Xu, C}, title = {Impact of climate change on water quality evolution in cold regions using a water-heat-nitrogen processes coupled model.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38409378}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {51679257//the Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; SKR-2022056//Major scientific and technological projects of the Ministry of Water Resources/ ; 2021YFC3000205//the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; WR110145B0072023//China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Basic Research Funds Special Project/ ; }, abstract = {Cold regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Thus, evaluating the response of water quality evolution to climate change in cold regions is vital for formulating adaptive countermeasures for pollution control under changing climatic conditions. Taking the Songhua River Basin (SRB) in Northeast China as the target area, we designed a water-heat-nitrogen coupled model based on the principle of water and energy transfer and nitrogen cycle processes model (WEP-N) in cold regions. The impact of climate change on pollution load and water quality was analyzed during the freezing, thawing, and non-freeze-thaw periods by taking the sudden change point (1998) of precipitation and runoff evolution in the SRB as the cut-off. The ammonia nitrogen load at Jiamusi station, the outlet control station in the SRB, was decreased by 1502.9 t in the change period (1999-2018) over the base period (1956-1998), with a - 9.2% decrease due to climate change. Compared to the ammonia nitrogen load during the base period, the ammonia nitrogen load decreased by - 171.3, - 506.9, and - 824.8 t during the freezing, thawing, and non-freeze-thaw periods, respectively, while the coefficient of variation showed an increasing trend during three periods, especially during the freezing and thawing periods. However, the water quality changes differed among periods owing to varying runoff during the year. Meanwhile, increasing runoff and decreasing ammonia nitrogen load improved water quality at Jiamusi station during the freezing period. During the thawing and non-freeze-thaw period, the water quality deteriorated due to the decrease in runoff more than the decrease in ammonia nitrogen load. Hence, the impact of climate change on water quality during thawing and non-freeze-thaw periods should be monitored to potentially offset the human influence on pollution control. The difference in the rate of change of the proportion of Class IV water between the two models with or without the soil freeze-thaw mechanism was 15.9%. The result shows that the application of a model that does not consider the freeze-thaw mechanism might slightly exaggerate the impact of climate change on water quality.}, }
@article {pmid38409318, year = {2024}, author = {Conradi, T and Eggli, U and Kreft, H and Schweiger, AH and Weigelt, P and Higgins, SI}, title = {Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38409318}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {01LL1801A//Bundesministerium f&#xfc;r Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research)/ ; }, abstract = {Forecasting the risks of climate change for species and ecosystems is necessary for developing targeted conservation strategies. Previous risk assessments mapped the exposure of the global land surface to changes in climate. However, this procedure is unlikely to robustly identify priority areas for conservation actions because nonlinear physiological responses and colimitation processes ensure that ecological changes will not map perfectly to the forecast climatic changes. Here, we combine ecophysiological growth models of 135,153 vascular plant species and plant growth-form information to transform ambient and future climatologies into phytoclimates, which describe the ability of climates to support the plant growth forms that characterize terrestrial ecosystems. We forecast that 33% to 68% of the global land surface will experience a significant change in phytoclimate by 2070 under representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Phytoclimates without present-day analogue are forecast to emerge on 0.3-2.2% of the land surface and 0.1-1.3% of currently realized phytoclimates are forecast to disappear. Notably, the geographic pattern of change, disappearance and novelty of phytoclimates differs markedly from the pattern of analogous trends in climates detected by previous studies, thereby defining new priorities for conservation actions and highlighting the limits of using untransformed climate change exposure indices in ecological risk assessments. Our findings suggest that a profound transformation of the biosphere is underway and emphasize the need for a timely adaptation of biodiversity management practices.}, }
@article {pmid38408778, year = {2024}, author = {Taylor, L}, title = {Dengue fever: Brazil rushes out vaccine as climate change fuels unprecedented surge.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {384}, number = {}, pages = {q483}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q483}, pmid = {38408778}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid38408683, year = {2024}, author = {Kumar, A and Mushtaq, M and Kumar, P and Sharma, DP and Gahlaut, V}, title = {Insights into flowering mechanisms in apple (Malus × domestica Borkh.) amidst climate change: An exploration of genetic and epigenetic factors.}, journal = {Biochimica et biophysica acta. General subjects}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {130593}, doi = {10.1016/j.bbagen.2024.130593}, pmid = {38408683}, issn = {1872-8006}, abstract = {Apple (Malus × domestica Borkh.) holds a prominent position among global temperate fruit crops, with flowering playing a crucial role in both production and breeding. This review delves into the intricate mechanisms governing apple flowering amidst the backdrop of climate change, acknowledging the profound influence of external and internal factors on biennial bearing, flower bud quality, and ultimately, fruit quality. Notably, the challenge faced in major apple production regions is not an inadequacy of flowers but an excess, leading to compromised fruit quality necessitating thinning practices. Climate change exacerbates these challenges, rendering apple trees more susceptible to crop failure due to unusual weather events, such as reduced winter snowfall, early spring cold weather, and hailstorms during flowering and fruit setting. Altered climatic conditions, exemplified by increased spring warming coupled with sub-freezing temperatures, negatively impact developing flower buds and decrease overall crop production. Furthermore, changing winter conditions affect chilling accumulation, disrupting flower development and synchronicity. Although the physiological perception of apple flowering has been reviewed in the past, the genetic, epigenetic, and multi-omics regulatory mechanisms governing floral induction and flowering are still rarely discussed in the case of apple flowering. This article comprehensively reviews the latest literature encompassing all aspects of apple flowering, aiming to broaden our understanding and address flowering challenges while also laying a solid foundation for future research in developing cultivars that are ideally adapted to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38408245, year = {2024}, author = {Moore, MP and Nalley, SE and Hamadah, D}, title = {An evolutionary innovation for mating facilitates ecological niche expansion and buffers species against climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {10}, pages = {e2313371121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2313371121}, pmid = {38408245}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {NA//CU | University of Colorado Denver (UC Denver)/ ; NA//Living Earth Collaborative/ ; }, abstract = {One of the drivers of life's diversification has been the emergence of "evolutionary innovations": The evolution of traits that grant access to underused ecological niches. Since ecological interactions can occur separately from mating, mating-related traits have not traditionally been considered factors in niche evolution. However, in order to persist in their environment, animals need to successfully mate just as much as they need to survive. Innovations that facilitate mating activity may therefore be an overlooked determinant of species' ecological limits. Here, we show that species' historical niches and responses to contemporary climate change are shaped by an innovation involved in mating-a waxy, ultra-violet-reflective pruinescence produced by male dragonflies. Physiological experiments in two species demonstrate that pruinescence reduces heating and water loss. Phylogenetic analyses show that pruinescence is gained after taxa begin adopting a thermohydrically stressful mating behavior. Further comparative analyses reveal that pruinose species are more likely to breed in exposed, open-canopy microhabitats. Biogeographic analyses uncover that pruinose species occupy warmer and drier regions in North America. Citizen-science observations of Pachydiplax longipennis suggest that the extent of pruinescence can be optimized to match the local conditions. Finally, temporal analyses indicate that pruinose species have been buffered against contemporary climate change. Overall, these historical and contemporary patterns show that successful mating can shape species' niche limits in the same way as growth and survival.}, }
@article {pmid38406755, year = {2023}, author = {Bevan, J and Blyth, R and Russel, B and Austin, I and Butler, M and Cheung, HC and Holtgrewe, L and Shah, V}, title = {Climate change and sustainability teaching in UK medical education - a national audit.}, journal = {Future healthcare journal}, volume = {10}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {138-139}, pmid = {38406755}, issn = {2514-6645}, }
@article {pmid38404209, year = {2024}, author = {Fragnière, Y and Champoud, L and Küffer, N and Braillard, L and Jutzi, M and Wohlgemuth, T and Kozlowski, G}, title = {Cliff-edge forests: Xerothermic hotspots of local biodiversity and models for future climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {e17196}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17196}, pmid = {38404209}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Cliffs are remarkable environments that enable the existence of microclimates. These small, isolated sites, decoupled from the regional macroclimate, play a significant role in maintaining species biodiversity, particularly in topographically homogeneous landscapes. Our study investigated the microclimate of south-exposed forests situated at the edge of sandstone cliffs in the western part of the North Alpine Foreland Basin in Switzerland and its role in local forest community composition. Using direct measurements from data loggers, as well as vegetation analyses, it was possible to quantify the microclimate of the cliff-edge forests and compare it with that of the surrounding forests. Our results highlighted the significant xerothermic and more variable nature of the cliff-edge forest microclimate, with a mean soil temperature up to 3.72°C warmer in the summer, higher annual (+28%) and daily (+250%) amplitudes of soil temperature, which frequently expose vegetation to extreme temperatures, and an 83% higher soil drying rate. These differences have a distinct influence on forest communities: cliff-edge forests are significantly different from surrounding forests. The site particularities of cliff edges support the presence of locally rare species and forest types, particularly of Scots pine. Cliff edges must therefore be considered microrefugia with a high conservation value for both xerothermic species and flora adapted to more continental climates. Moreover, the microclimate of cliff-edge forests could resemble the future climate in many ways. We argue that these small areas, which are already experiencing the future climate, can be seen as natural laboratories to better answer the following question: what will our forests look like in a few decades with accelerated climate change?}, }
@article {pmid38403891, year = {2024}, author = {Terasaki Hart, DE and Wang, IJ}, title = {Genomic architecture controls multivariate adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {e17179}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17179}, pmid = {38403891}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Bezos Earth Fund/ ; DEB1845682//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; //University of California, Berkeley/ ; }, abstract = {As climate change advances, environmental gradients may decouple, generating novel multivariate environments that stress wild populations. A commonly invoked mechanism of evolutionary rescue is adaptive gene flow tracking climate shifts, but gene flow from populations inhabiting similar conditions on one environmental axis could cause maladaptive introgression when populations are adapted to different environmental variables that do not shift together. Genomic architecture can play an important role in determining the effectiveness and relative magnitudes of adaptive gene flow and in situ adaptation. This may have direct consequences for how species respond to climate change but is often overlooked. Here, we simulated microevolutionary responses to environmental change under scenarios defined by variation in the polygenicity, linkage, and genetic redundancy of two independent traits, one of which is adapted to a gradient that shifts under climate change. We used these simulations to examine how genomic architecture influences evolutionary outcomes under climate change. We found that climate-tracking (up-gradient) gene flow, though present in all scenarios, was strongly constrained under scenarios of lower linkage and higher polygenicity and redundancy, suggesting in situ adaptation as the predominant mechanism of evolutionary rescue under these conditions. We also found that high polygenicity caused increased maladaptation and demographic decline, a concerning result given that many climate-adapted traits may be polygenic. Finally, in scenarios with high redundancy, we observed increased adaptive capacity. This finding adds to the growing recognition of the importance of redundancy in mediating in situ adaptive capacity and suggests opportunities for better understanding the climatic vulnerability of real populations.}, }
@article {pmid38403549, year = {2024}, author = {Datta, P and Datta, R and Lewis, K and Hurlbert, M}, title = {Youth response to climate change: Learning from Indigenous land-based camp at the Northern Saskatchewan Indigenous Communities, Canada.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2024.02.003}, pmid = {38403549}, issn = {1878-7541}, abstract = {This paper represents Youth's involvement in land-based learning in Indigenous culture camps (LLICP) in a powerful and innovative approach to addressing the pressing global issue of climate change. Following Indigenist and relational approaches, we (Indigenous and non-Indigenous youth and educators) explore the critical aspects of this initiative, highlighting its significance and potential impact. Indigenous communities have long held a deep connection with the land and possess traditional knowledge that is invaluable in combating climate change. The LLICP initiative involves organizing cultural camps designed for youth from diverse backgrounds to learn from Indigenous elders and community leaders about the vital relationship between the environment and Indigenous cultures. The LLICP provides a unique opportunity for young people to engage with Indigenous wisdom, traditional practices, and land-based teachings. Through Indigenous elders and knowledge-keepers guidelines, we learned a holistic understanding of sustainable living, biodiversity conservation, and the importance of preserving ecosystems. Our learning helped us, particularly our youths, to become proactive stewards of the environment and advocates for climate action. The LLICP fosters cross-cultural understanding and collaboration, encouraging a sense of unity among youths. The LLICP inspires innovative solutions to climate-related challenges and empowers youth to take leadership roles in their communities, advocating for sustainable policies and practices. The LLICP offers a powerful means of engaging young people in the fight against climate change while respecting and honoring Indigenous knowledge and heritage. It is a promising step towards a more sustainable and resilient future for all.}, }
@article {pmid38403295, year = {2024}, author = {Vanalli, C and Mari, L and Casagrandi, R and Gatto, M and Cattadori, IM}, title = {Helminth ecological requirements shape the impact of climate change on the hazard of infection.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {e14386}, doi = {10.1111/ele.14386}, pmid = {38403295}, issn = {1461-0248}, abstract = {Outbreaks and spread of infectious diseases are often associated with seasonality and environmental changes, including global warming. Free-living stages of soil-transmitted helminths are highly susceptible to climatic drivers; however, how multiple climatic variables affect helminth species, and the long-term consequences of these interactions, is poorly understood. We used experiments on nine trichostrongylid species of herbivores to develop a temperature- and humidity-dependent model of infection hazard, which was then implemented at the European scale under climate change scenarios. Intestinal and stomach helminths exhibited contrasting climatic responses, with the former group strongly affected by temperature while the latter primarily impacted by humidity. Among the demographic traits, larval survival heavily modulated the infection hazard. According to the specific climatic responses of the two groups, climate change is expected to generate differences in the seasonal and spatial shifts of the infection hazard and group co-circulation. In the future, an intensification of these trends could create new opportunities for species range expansion and co-occurrence at European central-northern latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid38402970, year = {2024}, author = {Saygin, H and Tilkili, B and Karniyarik, S and Baysal, A}, title = {Culture dependent analysis of bacterial activity, biofilm-formation and oxidative stress of seawater with the contamination of microplastics under climate change consideration.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171103}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171103}, pmid = {38402970}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Temperature changes due to climate change and microplastic contamination are worldwide concerns, creating various problems in the marine environment. Therefore, this study was carried out to discover the impact of different temperature of seawater exposed to different types of plastic materials on culture dependent bacterial responses and oxidative characteristics. Seawater was exposed to microplastics obtained from various plastic materials at different temperature (-18, +4, +20, and +35 °C) for seven days. Then microplastics were removed from the suspension and microplastic-exposed seawater samples were analyzed for bacterial activity, biofilm formation and oxidative characteristics (antioxidant, catalase, glutathione, and superoxide dismutase) using Gram-negative Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Gram-positive Staphylococcus aureus. The results showed that the activity and biofilm formation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus were affected through oxidative stress by catalase, glutathione, and superoxide dismutase due to the microplastic deformation by temperature changes. This study confirms that temperature changes as a result of climate change might influence microplastic degradation and their contamination impact in seawater in terms of bacterial metabolic and oxidation reactions.}, }
@article {pmid38402963, year = {2024}, author = {Regev, S and Carmel, Y and Schlabing, D and Gal, G}, title = {Climate change impact on sub-tropical lakes ecosystem - Lake Kinneret as a case study.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171163}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171163}, pmid = {38402963}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is anticipated to alter lake ecosystems by affecting water quality, potentially resulting in loss of ecosystem services. Subtropical lakes have high temperatures to begin with and are expected to exhibit higher temperatures all year round which might affect the thermal structure and ecological processes in a different manner than lakes in temperate zones. In this study the ecosystem response of the sub-tropical Lake Kinneret to climate change was explored using lake ecosystem models. Projection reliability was increased by using a weather generator and ensemble modelling, confronting uncertainty of both climate projections and lake models. The study included running two 1D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models over one thousand realizations of two gradual temperature increase scenarios that span over 49 years. Our predictions show that an increase in air temperature would have subtle effects on stratification properties but may result in considerable changes to biogeochemical processes. Water temperature rise would cause a reduction in dissolved oxygen. Both of these changes would produce elevated phosphate and lowered ammonium concentrations. In turn, these changes are predicted to modify the phytoplankton community, expressed chiefly in increased cyanobacteria blooms at the expense of green phytoplankton and dinoflagellates; these changes may culminate in overall reduction of primary production. Identification of these trends would not be possible without the use of many realizations of climate scenarios. The use of ensemble modelling increased prediction reliability and highlighted elements of uncertainty. Though we use Lake Kinneret, the patterns identified most likely indicate processes that are expected in sub-tropical lakes in general.}, }
@article {pmid38401561, year = {2024}, author = {Bagcchi, S}, title = {Climate change recognised in World malaria report 2023.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {e157}, doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00091-4}, pmid = {38401561}, issn = {1474-4457}, }
@article {pmid38397707, year = {2024}, author = {Stilita, G and Charlson, F}, title = {Keeping Sane in a Changing Climate: Assessing Psychologists' Preparedness, Exposure to Climate-Health Impacts, Willingness to Act on Climate Change, and Barriers to Effective Action.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph21020218}, pmid = {38397707}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Evidence of the impact of climate change on mental health is growing rapidly, and healthcare professionals are being called to be active participants in protecting the population's health. Yet, little is known about psychologists' understanding of climate-health impacts and their role in mitigation actions. We surveyed Australian psychologists (N = 59) to examine preparedness in identifying and managing the impact of climate change on mental health, exposure to climate-health impacts, willingness to act, and barriers to acting on climate change. Data was analysed through descriptive and associative methods. We found that participants are not prepared to identify and manage mental health presentations related to climate change, and they are not engaged in climate change mitigation. We identified that a lack of knowledge of climate-health impacts and tackling and mitigation strategies, in addition to ethical concerns, were the main barriers to engagement with communication and advocacy. With the impacts of climate change on mental health expected to soar, there is a clear and urgent need to prepare the psychological workforce to address this public health issue by establishing professional education programs and reframing climate change as a health crisis.}, }
@article {pmid38397701, year = {2024}, author = {Neves, JMM and Belo, VS and Catita, CMS and Oliveira, BFA and Horta, MAP}, title = {Modeling of Human Rabies Cases in Brazil in Different Future Global Warming Scenarios.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph21020212}, pmid = {38397701}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {001//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; }, abstract = {Bat species have been observed to have the potential to expand their distribution in response to climate change, thereby influencing shifts in the spatial distribution and population dynamics of human rabies cases. In this study, we applied an ensemble niche modeling approach to project climatic suitability under different future global warming scenarios for human rabies cases in Brazil, and assessed the impact on the probability of emergence of new cases. We obtained notification records of human rabies cases in all Brazilian cities from January 2001 to August 2023, as reported by the State and Municipal Health Departments. The current and future climate data were sourced from a digital repository on the WorldClim website. The future bioclimatic variables provided were downscaled climate projections from CMIP6 (a global model ensemble) and extracted from the regionalized climate model HadGEM3-GC31-LL for three future socioeconomic scenarios over four periods (2021-2100). Seven statistical algorithms (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, and GLM) were selected for modeling human rabies. Temperature seasonality was the bioclimatic variable with the highest relative contribution to both current and future consensus models. Future scenario modeling for human rabies indicated a trend of changes in the areas of occurrence, maintaining the current pace of global warming, population growth, socioeconomic instability, and the loss of natural areas. In Brazil, there are areas with a higher likelihood of climatic factors contributing to the emergence of cases. When assessing future scenarios, a change in the local climatic suitability is observed that may lead to a reduction or increase in cases, depending on the region.}, }
@article {pmid38395450, year = {2024}, author = {Teshome, M}, title = {Charting the systemic and cascading impacts of climate change on marine food systems and human health.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014638}, pmid = {38395450}, issn = {2059-7908}, }
@article {pmid38394879, year = {2024}, author = {Mumoli, N and Evangelista, I and Capra, C and Mantegazza, P and Cei, F}, title = {West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease: An emerging climate-change related sneaky syndrome.}, journal = {Journal of infection and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {609-611}, doi = {10.1016/j.jiph.2024.02.008}, pmid = {38394879}, issn = {1876-035X}, }
@article {pmid38394793, year = {2024}, author = {Giacoletti, A and Bosch-Belmar, M and Mangano, MC and Tantillo, MF and Sarà, G and Milisenda, G}, title = {Predicting the effect of fouling organisms and climate change on integrated shellfish aquaculture.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {201}, number = {}, pages = {116167}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.116167}, pmid = {38394793}, issn = {1879-3363}, abstract = {Aquaculture industry represents a continuously growing sector playing a fundamental role in pursuing United Nation's goals. Increasing sea-surface temperatures, the growth of encrusting species and current cage cleaning practices proved to affect the productivity of commercial species. Here, through a Dynamic Energy Budget application under two different IPCC scenarios, we investigate the long-term effects of Pennaria disticha fragments' on Mytilus galloprovincialis' functional traits as a result of cage cleaning practices. While Climate-Change did not exert a marked effect on mussels' Life-History traits, the simulated effect of cage cleanings highlighted a positive effect on total weight, fecundity and time to commercial size. West-Mediterranean emerged as the most affected sector, with Malta, Montenegro, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey between the top-affected countries. These outcomes confirm the reliability of a DEB-approach in projecting at different spatial and temporal scale eco-physiological results, avoiding the limitation of short-term studies and the difficulties of long-term ones.}, }
@article {pmid38394170, year = {2024}, author = {Siiba, A and Kangmennaang, J and Baatiema, L and Luginaah, I}, title = {The relationship between climate change, globalization and non-communicable diseases in Africa: A systematic review.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {e0297393}, pmid = {38394170}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are considered the 21st Century's major health and development challenges. Both pose a disproportionate burden on low- and middle-income countries that are unprepared to cope with their synergistic effects. These two challenges pose risks for achieving many of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and are both impacted by globalization through different pathways. While there are important insights on how climate change and or globalization impact NCDs in the general literature, comprehensive research that explores the influence of climate change and or globalization on NCDs is limited, particularly in the context of Africa. This review documents the pathways through which climate change and or globalization influence NCDs in Africa. We conducted a comprehensive literature search in eight electronic databases-Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, Global Health Library, Science Direct, Medline, ProQuest, and Google Scholar. A total of 13864 studies were identified. Studies that were identified from more than one of the databases were automatically removed as duplicates (n = 9649). Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, a total of 27 studies were eventually included in the final review. We found that the impacts of climate change and or globalization on NCDs act through three potential pathways: reduction in food production and nutrition, urbanization and transformation of food systems. Our review contributes to the existing literature by providing insights into the impact of climate change and or globalization on human health. We believe that our findings will help enlighten policy makers working on these pathways to facilitate the development of effective policy and public health interventions to mitigate the effects of climate change and globalization on the rising burden of NCDs and goal 3 of the SDG, in particular.}, }
@article {pmid38392517, year = {2024}, author = {Zhao, Q and Li, H and Chen, C and Fan, S and Wei, J and Cai, B and Zhang, H}, title = {Potential Global Distribution of Paracoccus marginatus, under Climate Change Conditions, Using MaxEnt.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects15020098}, pmid = {38392517}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {31872272//Qing Zhao/ ; 202103021224331//Hufang Zhang/ ; }, abstract = {The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, is an invasive pest species found all over the world. It is native to Mexico and Central America, but is now present in more than 50 countries and regions, seriously threatening the economic viability of the agricultural and forestry industry. In the current study, the global potential distribution of P. marginatus was predicted under current and future climatic conditions using MaxEnt. The results of the model assessment indicated that the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC-AUC) was 0.949, while the TSS value was 0.820. The results also showed that the three variables with the greatest impact on the model were min temperature of coldest month (bio6), precipitation of wettest month (bio13), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19), with corresponding contributions of 46.8%, 31.1%, and 13.1%, respectively. The results indicated that the highly suitable areas were mainly located in tropical and subtropical regions, including South America, southern North America, Central America, Central Africa, Australia, the Indian subcontinent, and Southeast Asia. Under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s, the area of suitability will change very little. Moreover, the results showed that the area of suitable areas in 2070s increased under all four climate scenarios compared to the current climate. In contrast, the area of suitable habitat increases from the current to the 2050s under the SSP370 and SSP585 climate scenarios. The current study could provide a reference framework for the future control and management of papaya mealybug and other invasive species.}, }
@article {pmid38392304, year = {2024}, author = {Daunoras, J and Kačergius, A and Gudiukaitė, R}, title = {Role of Soil Microbiota Enzymes in Soil Health and Activity Changes Depending on Climate Change and the Type of Soil Ecosystem.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology13020085}, pmid = {38392304}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {The extracellular enzymes secreted by soil microorganisms play a pivotal role in the decomposition of organic matter and the global cycles of carbon (C), phosphorus (P), and nitrogen (N), also serving as indicators of soil health and fertility. Current research is extensively analyzing these microbial populations and enzyme activities in diverse soil ecosystems and climatic regions, such as forests, grasslands, tropics, arctic regions and deserts. Climate change, global warming, and intensive agriculture are altering soil enzyme activities. Yet, few reviews have thoroughly explored the key enzymes required for soil fertility and the effects of abiotic factors on their functionality. A comprehensive review is thus essential to better understand the role of soil microbial enzymes in C, P, and N cycles, and their response to climate changes, soil ecosystems, organic farming, and fertilization. Studies indicate that the soil temperature, moisture, water content, pH, substrate availability, and average annual temperature and precipitation significantly impact enzyme activities. Additionally, climate change has shown ambiguous effects on these activities, causing both reductions and enhancements in enzyme catalytic functions.}, }
@article {pmid38390416, year = {2024}, author = {Marczak, M and Wierzba, M and Kossowski, B and Marchewka, A and Morote, R and Klöckner, CA}, title = {Emotional responses to climate change in Norway and Ireland: a validation of the Inventory of Climate Emotions (ICE) in two European countries and an inspection of its nomological span.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1211272}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1211272}, pmid = {38390416}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {There is an increasing research interest in emotional responses to climate change and their role in climate action and psycho-social impacts of climate change. At the same time, emotional experience of climate change is multidimensional and influenced by a variety of factors, including the local cultural context. Here, we contribute to the scientific debate about this topic with original quality-controlled data from the general populations in Norway (N = 491) and Ireland (N = 485). We investigate the cross-cultural validity and the nomological span of eight distinct emotional responses to climate change - climate anger, climate contempt, climate enthusiasm, climate powerlessness, climate guilt, climate isolation, climate anxiety, and climate sorrow - measured using the recently introduced Inventory of Climate Emotions. We first validate the 8-factor structure of the Norwegian and English language versions of the ICE. Subsequently, we demonstrate a high degree of cross-cultural measurement invariance for these eight climate emotions. Finally, we explore the relationships between these emotional responses and a range of theoretically relevant variables. In this final step, we show that climate emotions are differentially linked to climate change perceptions, support for mitigation policies, socio-demographic factors, feelings of loneliness and alienation, environmental activism, and the willingness to prioritize the natural environment over one's immediate self-interests. Some of these links are also differentiated by the cultural context. This research presents further evidence for the structural, cross-cultural, and concurrent validity of climate emotions as postulated in the ICE framework. Moreover, it provides tools in the form of validated Norwegian and English language versions of the ICE, the complete R code for the validation analysis, as well as an informed basis for cross-cultural research on emotional responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38390402, year = {2023}, author = {Biresselioglu, ME and Savas, ZF and Demir, MH and Kentmen-Cin, C}, title = {Tackling climate change at the city level: insights from Lighthouse Cities' climate mitigation efforts.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1308040}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1308040}, pmid = {38390402}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The link between lifestyles and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions has prioritized climate mitigation strategies of cities worldwide. As cities have increasingly generated GHG emissions by their industrial and transportation activities, their role in climate mitigation has gained prominence. Cities' climate mitigation policies to reduce the GHG intensity of their residents' daily lives are one of their significant efforts to tackle climate change. Lighthouse Cities (LCs), in particular, have emerged as remarkable actors in promoting lifestyle changes for their residents.<br><br>METHODS: This study examines climate mitigation strategies of LCs of Climate CAMPAIGNers project, including Baku, Vilnius, Lahti, Izmir, Trujillo, Athens, Linz, Milan, Cape Town, Dublin, and Skopelos, addressing lifestyle changes by conducting an expert survey in 11 LCs involving 89 respondents. The findings of the expert survey are comparatively analyzed across 11 LCs.<br><br>RESULTS: The results show that experts form Lighthouse Cities identify increasing awareness and information provision as a significant component of climate mitigation policies. Concerning lifestyle changes, strategies toward energy efficiency and sustainable mobility are highlighted as the primary areas to be prioritized.<br><br>DISCUSSION: This study enhances the understanding of cities' capacity to reduce their residents' GHG emissions. The findings can be utilized to identify and tailor policies for supporting the Lighthouse Cities in their climate change mitigation efforts and provide pointers for selecting the lifestyle changes that can be promoted and prioritized in Lighthouse Cities.}, }
@article {pmid38390091, year = {2024}, author = {Sinore, T and Wang, F}, title = {Impact of climate change on agriculture and adaptation strategies in Ethiopia: A meta-analysis.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {e26103}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e26103}, pmid = {38390091}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Ethiopia is a rainfall-based agricultural country that is susceptible to the impacts of climate change and risk. Floods and droughts, which happen more frequently and intensely, significantly and negatively influence agricultural production. The objective of the meta-analysis is to identify impacts on various sectors, adaptation strategies, and the challenges of climate change in the Ethiopian context. Twenty-three peer-reviewed articles were identified from ScienceDirect and Web of Science, followed by PRISMA guidelines, and analyzed using Stata version 13. The results reveal that climate change negatively impacts agriculture (by changing crop suitability, phenology, and productivity), the environment, and society, resulting from shifting temperature and rainfall patterns. Temperature variations, patterns of precipitation, and severe weather conditions have profound implications for agricultural productivity, water resources, ecosystems, and human well-being, which are multifaceted and interlinked. In addition, the reviewed articles informed us that farmers have used different coping strategies in response to climate change, such as soil and water conservation, agroforestry practices, integrated soil fertility management, small-scale irrigation, the application of improved crop varieties, the use of improved livestock, mixed cropping, early and late planting, and the practice of income-generating activities. The random effects meta-regression result shows that effective implementation of the above-mentioned practices reduces the risk of climate change in different sectors. The assessment also points out many challenges to the realization of these approaches, such as the lack of financing, institutional support, insufficient stakeholder involvement, ecological and sociocultural factors, and limited access to weather information. The meta-analysis concludes that addressing challenges requires holistic and integrated approaches that encompass adaptation strategies, sustainable land and water management, and social resilience-building to help the resilience of Ethiopian communities and ecosystems in the face of a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid38388162, year = {2024}, author = {Muhia, J and Rethlefsen, ML and Rossington, B and Wedmore, F and Pattnaik, A and Smith, R and Schroter, S}, title = {Health journal coverage of climate change and health: a bibliometric study.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014498}, pmid = {38388162}, issn = {2059-7908}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To find what proportion of a broad set of health journals have published on climate change and health, how many articles they have published, and when they first published on the subject.<br><br>DESIGN: Bibliometric study.<br><br>SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted electronic searches in Ovid MEDLINE ALL for articles about climate change and human health published from 1860 to 31 December 2022 in 330 health journals. There were no limits by language or publication type. Results were independently screened by two raters for article eligibility.<br><br>RESULTS: After screening there were 2932 eligible articles published across 253 of the 330 journals between 1947 and 2022; most (2795/2932; 95%) were published in English. A few journals published articles in the early 90s, but there has been a rapid increase since about 2006. We were unable to categorise the types of publication but estimate that fewer than half are research papers. While articles were published in journals in 39 countries, two-thirds (1929/2932; 66%) were published in a journal published in the UK or the USA. Almost a quarter (77/330; 23%) of the journals published no eligible articles, and almost three-quarters (241/330; 73%) published five articles or fewer. The publication of joint editorials in over 200 journals in 2021 and 2022 boosted the number of journals publishing something on climate change and health. A third of the (112/330; 34%) journals in our sample published at least one of the joint editorials, and almost a third of those (32/112; 29%) were publishing on climate change and health for the first time.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Health journals are rapidly increasing the amount they publish on climate change and health, but despite climate change being the major threat to global health many journals had until recently published little or nothing. A joint editorial published in multiple journals increased coverage, and for many journals it was the first thing they published on climate change and health.}, }
@article {pmid38388161, year = {2024}, author = {Araos, M and Wolfe, M}, title = {The climate missing: identifying bodies and preventing disappearances linked to climate change.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014767}, pmid = {38388161}, issn = {2059-7908}, }
@article {pmid38385958, year = {2024}, author = {Dobor, L and Baldo, M and Bílek, L and Barka, I and Máliš, F and Štěpánek, P and Hlásny, T}, title = {The interacting effect of climate change and herbivory can trigger large-scale transformations of European temperate forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {e17194}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17194}, pmid = {38385958}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {Reg. No A_11_22/43960/1312/3166//Fakulta lesnick&#xe1; a d&#x159;eva&#x159;sk&#xe1;, &#x10c;esk&#xe1; Zem&#x11b;d&#x11b;lsk&#xe1; Univerzita v Praze/ ; 101000574//HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme/ ; QK23020039//N&#xe1;rodn&#xed; agentura pro zem&#x11b;d&#x11b;lsk&#xfd; v&#xfd;zkum/ ; CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803//Ministerstvo &#x160;kolstv&#xed;, Ml&#xe1;de&#x17e;e a T&#x11b;lov&#xfd;chovy/ ; APVV-19-0319//Ministerstva &#x161;kolstva, v&#xfd;skumu, v&#xfd;voja a ml&#xe1;de&#x17e;e SROV/ ; VEGA 1/0624/21//Ministerstva &#x161;kolstva, v&#xfd;skumu, v&#xfd;voja a ml&#xe1;de&#x17e;e SROV/ ; }, abstract = {In many regions of Europe, large wild herbivores alter forest community composition through their foraging preferences, hinder the forest's natural adaptive responses to climate change, and reduce ecosystem resilience. We investigated a widespread European forest type, a mixed forest dominated by Picea abies, which has recently experienced an unprecedented level of disturbance across the continent. Using the forest landscape model iLand, we investigated the combined effect of climate change and herbivory on forest structure, composition, and carbon and identified conditions leading to ecosystem transitions on a 300-year timescale. Eight climate change scenarios, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, combined with three levels of regeneration browsing, were tested. We found that the persistence of the current level of browsing pressure impedes adaptive changes in community composition and sustains the presence of the vulnerable yet less palatable P. abies. These development trajectories were tortuous, characterized by a high disturbance intensity. On the contrary, reduced herbivory initiated a transformation towards the naturally dominant broadleaved species that was associated with an increased forest carbon and a considerably reduced disturbance. The conditions of RCP4.5 combined with high and moderate browsing levels preserved the forest within its reference range of variability, defining the actual boundaries of resilience. The remaining combinations of browsing and climate change led to ecosystem transitions. Under RCP4.5 with browsing effects excluded, the new equilibrium conditions were achieved within 120 years, whereas the stabilization was delayed by 50-100 years under RCP8.5 with higher browsing intensities. We conclude that forests dominated by P. abies are prone to transitions driven by climate change. However, reducing herbivory can set the forest on a stable and predictable trajectory, whereas sustaining the current browsing levels can lead to heightened disturbance activity, extended transition times, and high variability in the target conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38383630, year = {2024}, author = {Grossman, D}, title = {Scientists under arrest: the researchers taking action over climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {626}, number = {8000}, pages = {710-712}, pmid = {38383630}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38382598, year = {2024}, author = {Lamacova, A and Ledvinka, O and Bohdalkova, L and Oulehle, F and Kreisinger, J and Vlnas, R}, title = {Response of spring yield dynamics to climate change across altitude gradient and varied hydrogeological conditions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171082}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171082}, pmid = {38382598}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Springs offer insights into groundwater dynamics. Long-term monitoring of spring yields can reflect the response of groundwater storage to climate change. We analyzed the yield trends of 136 springs across 18 hydrogeological regions in Czechia from 1971 to 2020. The trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall test and linear mixed-effects models were used to assess environmental impacts on spring yields. Overall, 71 % of the springs showed no long-term trends, 28 % exhibited decreasing trends, and 1.5 % showed increasing trends in annual spring yields. Altitude has been demonstrated as a contributing factor influencing spring responses to climate change. Lowland springs (<300 m a.s.l.) exhibited the highest proportion of decreasing annual trends (41 %), while uplands (300-600 m a.s.l.) and highlands (>600 m a.s.l.) showed declines in 26 % and 25 % of springs, respectively. Moreover, highlands recorded a 7 % yield increase, indicating a complex interplay between altitude and spring response to climatic factors. A strong positive correlation was found between precipitation and yields (p < 0.01), whereas temperature increases negatively affected spring yields (p < 0.01). The interaction between temperature changes and region transmissivity highlighted the vulnerability of springs in low-transmissivity regions, predominantly those in crystalline and flysch bedrock areas, to climatic shifts. Generally, these regions have lower spring yields compared to the high-transmissivity areas of the Cretaceous basins. Although these lower-yield regions are not used as a primary water source for large areas, unlike regions with high-transmissivity bedrock, they provide water resources for local supply. Analysis of annual spring maxima frequencies revealed a shift in the culmination of maxima occurrences from April to March, with a significant decrease in April (p < 0.05) and May (p < 0.1) and an increase in March (p < 0.05), suggesting a change in spring yield seasonality. The 2015-2020 drought significantly accelerated declining spring yield trends across hydrogeological regions.}, }
@article {pmid38381579, year = {2024}, author = {Cramer, H}, title = {The Health Impacts of Climate Change: Can Whole Health Help Us Cope?.}, journal = {Journal of integrative and complementary medicine}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {93-94}, doi = {10.1089/jicm.2024.0005}, pmid = {38381579}, issn = {2768-3613}, }
@article {pmid38380960, year = {2024}, author = {Jia, C and Cao, Q and Wang, Z and van den Dool, A and Yue, M}, title = {Climate change affects the spread of typhoid pathogens.}, journal = {Microbial biotechnology}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {e14417}, doi = {10.1111/1751-7915.14417}, pmid = {38380960}, issn = {1751-7915}, support = {2022YFC2604201//National Program on Key Research Project of China/ ; 861917 - SAFFI//European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme/ ; }, abstract = {Typhoid fever is caused by Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (Salmonella Typhi). Syndromes in patients vary from asymptomatic carriers to severe or death outcomes, which are frequently reported in African and Southeast Asian countries. It is one of the most common waterborne transmission agents, whose transmission is likely impacted by climate change. Here, we claimed the evidence and consequences of climate-related foodborne and waterborne diseases have increased and provided possible mitigations against Typhoidal Salmonella dissemination.}, }
@article {pmid38380518, year = {2024}, author = {Budin-Ljøsne, I and Nordeng, Z and Schwarze, PE and Rao-Skirbekk, S}, title = {Linking climate change adaptation and public health: perspectives of Norwegian policymakers.}, journal = {Scandinavian journal of public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {14034948241229486}, doi = {10.1177/14034948241229486}, pmid = {38380518}, issn = {1651-1905}, abstract = {AIMS: To explore the perspectives of selected Norwegian climate and health policymakers working at national and municipality level regarding how health is accounted for in climate change adaptation plans.<br><br>METHODS: Semi-structured digital interviews were conducted with representatives from eight municipalities participating in a national network for climate change adaptation, one political unit and five national public administrations working in climate, health, environment, preparedness, and civil protection.<br><br>RESULTS: Municipalities coordinate the development of climate change adaptation plans with support from key national actors. Although municipalities were experienced in preparing for extreme climate events and securing infrastructure, limited consideration was given to health in the climate change adaptation work. Such integration was hindered by lack of resources and knowledge regarding what to do, and lack of collaboration between municipality sectors. To connect climate change adaptation and health better, the representatives suggested providing evidence-based information regarding health impacts of climate change, developing concrete tools including warning systems, and implementing regional, national, and international projects to map the impact of climate change and raise capacity. The representatives called for more stringent national guidelines for the integration of health in climate change adaptation, and pinpointed that lessons learnt from the COVID-19 pandemic will enable municipalities to be better prepared and more adaptable in the future.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Governmental authorities should provide more concrete guidance regarding the integration of health in climate change adaptation plans. Public health authorities have a central role to play in supporting such endeavours.}, }
@article {pmid38378759, year = {2024}, author = {Laimighofer, J and Formayer, H}, title = {Climate change contribution to the 2023 autumn temperature records in Vienna.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {4213}, pmid = {38378759}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Global monthly mean temperature continuously broke records in the year 2023 since June till October. This also happened widespread at September and October in Austria, but monthly temperature records on a local scale, such as in the mid latitudes like Austria, show less persistence than global or continental averages. This makes the autumn temperature extremes in Vienna (Austria) even more striking. Considering the compound occurrence of such an event at actual climate results in a return period of 324 years, which makes it extraordinary itself. Considering climate change, the compound event of two consecutive extreme high temperature records in autumn 2023 yields return periods of about 10,000 years until the second half of the twentieth century, which partly exceeds the length of the Holocene. Focusing on moderate compound extremes of the last 10 years (2014-2023), these reach return periods of 100 years up to 1960, but are now likely to happen every 15 years. Compound extremes in summer (July and August) present a higher decrease of the return period in Vienna over the last 250 years, possible leading to even more severe impacts on ecosystems and society.}, }
@article {pmid38378146, year = {2024}, author = {Enriquez-Urzelai, U and Gvoždík, L}, title = {Impacts of behaviour and acclimation of metabolic rate on energetics in sheltered ectotherms: a climate change perspective.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {291}, number = {2017}, pages = {20232152}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2023.2152}, pmid = {38378146}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Many ectothermic organisms counter harsh abiotic conditions by seeking refuge in underground retreats. Variations in soil hydrothermal properties within these retreats may impact their energy budget, survival and population dynamics. This makes retreat site choice a critical yet understudied component of their strategies for coping with climate change. We used a mechanistic modelling approach to explore the implications of behavioural adjustments and seasonal acclimation of metabolic rate on retreat depth and the energy budget of ectotherms, considering both current and future climate conditions. We used a temperate amphibian, the alpine newt (Ichthyosaura alpestris), as a model species. Our simulations predict an interactive influence of different thermo- and hydroregulatory strategies on the vertical positioning of individuals in underground refuges. The adoption of a particular strategy largely determines the impact of climate change on retreat site choice. Additionally, we found that, given the behavioural thermoregulation/hydroregulation and metabolic acclimation patterns considered, behaviour within the retreat has a greater impact on ectotherm energetics than acclimation of metabolic rate under different climate change scenarios. We conclude that further empirical research aimed at determining ectotherm behavioural strategies during both surface activity and inactivity is needed to understand their population dynamics and species viability under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38378140, year = {2024}, author = {Franke, A and Beemelmanns, A and Miest, JJ}, title = {Are fish immunocompetent enough to face climate change?.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {20230346}, doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2023.0346}, pmid = {38378140}, issn = {1744-957X}, abstract = {Ongoing climate change has already been associated with increased disease outbreaks in wild and farmed fish. Here, we evaluate the current knowledge of climate change-related ecoimmunology in teleosts with a focus on temperature, hypoxia, salinity and acidification before exploring interactive effects of multiple stressors. Our literature review reveals that acute and chronic changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen can compromise fish immunity which can lead to increased disease susceptibility. Moreover, temperature and hypoxia have already been shown to enhance the infectivity of certain pathogens/parasites and to accelerate disease progression. Too few studies exist that have focussed on acidification, but direct immune effects seem to be limited while salinity studies have led to contrasting results. Likewise, multi-stressor experiments essential for unravelling the interactions of simultaneously changing environmental factors are still scarce. This ultimately impedes our ability to estimate to what extent climate change will hamper fish immunity. Our review about epigenetic regulation mechanisms highlights the acclimation potential of the fish immune response to changing environments. However, due to the limited number of epigenetic studies, overarching conclusions cannot be drawn. Finally, we provide an outlook on how to better estimate the effects of realistic climate change scenarios in future immune studies in fish.}, }
@article {pmid38375273, year = {2024}, author = {Dong, WS and Ismailluddin, A and Yun, LS and Ariffin, EH and Saengsupavanich, C and Abdul Maulud, KN and Ramli, MZ and Miskon, MF and Jeofry, MH and Mohamed, J and Mohd, FA and Hamzah, SB and Yunus, K}, title = {The impact of climate change on coastal erosion in Southeast Asia and the compelling need to establish robust adaptation strategies.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {e25609}, pmid = {38375273}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change alters the climate condition and ocean environment, leading to accelerated coastal erosion and a shift in the coastline shape. From previous studies, Southeast Asia's coastal region is suffering from severe coastal erosion. It is most sensitive and vulnerable to climate change, has broad and densely populated coastlines, and is under ecological pressure. Efforts to systematically review these studies are still insufficient despite many studies on the climate change linked to coastal erosion, the correlation between coastal erosion and coastal communities, and the adaptative measures to address these issues and their effectiveness in Southeast Asia. Therefore, by analyzing the existing literature, the purpose of this review was to bridge the knowledge gap and identify the link between climate change and coastal erosion in Southeast Asia in terms of sea-level rise, storm surge, and monsoon patterns. The RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES) guided the study protocol, including articles from the Scopus and Dimension databases. There were five main themes considered: 1) climate change impact, 2) contributing factors to coastal erosion, 3) coastal erosion impact on coastal communities, 4) adaptation measure and 5) effectiveness of adaptation measure using thematical analysis. Subsequently, nine sub-themes were produced from the themes. Generally, in Southeast Asia, coastal erosion was reflected by the rising sea level. Throughout reviewing past literature, an interesting result was explored. Storm surges also had the potential to affect coastal erosion due to alterations of the atmospheric system and seasonal monsoon as the result of climate change. Meanwhile, an assessment of current erosion control strategies in relation to the relative hydrodynamic trend was required to avoid the failure of defence structures and the resulting danger to coastal communities. Systematically reviewing the existing literature was critical, hence it could significantly contribute to the body of knowledge. It provides valuable information for interested parties, such as authorities, the public, researchers, and environmentalists, while comprehending existing adaptation practices. This kind of review could strategize adaptation and natural resource management in line with coastal communities' needs, abilities, and capabilities in response to environmental and other change forms.}, }
@article {pmid38375085, year = {2024}, author = {Acosta-Motos, JR and Franco-Navarro, JD and Gómez-Bellot, MJ and Álvarez, S}, title = {Editorial: Crop resistance mechanisms to alleviate climate change-related stress.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1368573}, pmid = {38375085}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid38374809, year = {2024}, author = {Ahdoot, S and Baum, CR and Cataletto, MB and Hogan, P and Wu, CB and Bernstein, A and ,  and ,  and ,  and , }, title = {Climate Change and Children's Health: Building a Healthy Future for Every Child.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1542/peds.2023-065504}, pmid = {38374809}, issn = {1098-4275}, abstract = {The warming of our planet matters to every child. Driven by fossil fuel-generated greenhouse gas emissions, climate conditions stable since the founding of modern pediatrics in the mid-nineteenth century have shifted, and old certainties are falling away. Children's physical and mental health are threatened by climate change through its effects on temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather; ecological disruption; and community disruption. These impacts expose and amplify existing inequities and create unprecedented intergenerational injustice. Fossil fuel extraction and combustion cause harm today and reach centuries into the future, jeopardizing the health, safety, and prosperity of today's children and future generations. Appreciating the unique vulnerability of their patients, pediatricians have become leading health advocates for climate actions necessary to protect all living and future children. Policies that reduce reliance on fossil fuels and promote cleaner air, facilitate walking and bicycling, encourage more sustainable diets, increase access to nature, and develop more connected communities lead to immediate gains in child health and equity, and build a foundation for generations of children to thrive.}, }
@article {pmid38374808, year = {2024}, author = {Ahdoot, S and Baum, CR and Cataletto, MB and Hogan, P and Wu, CB and Bernstein, A and ,  and ,  and ,  and , }, title = {Climate Change and Children's Health: Building a Healthy Future for Every Child.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1542/peds.2023-065505}, pmid = {38374808}, issn = {1098-4275}, abstract = {Observed changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, sea level, and extreme weather are destabilizing major determinants of human health. Children are at higher risk of climate-related health burdens than adults because of their unique behavior patterns; developing organ systems and physiology; greater exposure to air, food, and water contaminants per unit of body weight; and dependence on caregivers. Climate change harms children through numerous pathways, including air pollution, heat exposure, floods and hurricanes, food insecurity and nutrition, changing epidemiology of infections, and mental health harms. As the planet continues to warm, climate change's impacts will worsen, threatening to define the health and welfare of children at every stage of their lives. Children who already bear higher burden of disease because of living in low-wealth households and communities, lack of access to high quality education, and experiencing racism and other forms of unjust discrimination bear greater risk of suffering from climate change hazards. Climate change solutions, advanced through collaborative work of pediatricians, health systems, communities, corporations, and governments lead to immediate gains in child health and equity and build a foundation for generations of children to thrive. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.}, }
@article {pmid38374402, year = {2024}, author = {Pratt, C and Mahdi, Z and El Hanandeh, A}, title = {'Climate Healing Stones': Common Minerals Offer Substantial Climate Change Mitigation Potential.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38374402}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {This review proposes that mineral-based greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation could be developed into a substantial climate change abatement tool. This proposal was evaluated via three objectives: (1) synthesise literature studies documenting the effectiveness of geological minerals at mitigating GHG emissions; (2) quantify, via meta-analysis, GHG magnitudes that could be abated by minerals factoring-in the carbon footprint of the approach; and (3) estimate the global availability of relevant minerals. Several minerals have been effectively harnessed across multiple sectors-including agriculture, waste management and coal mining-to mitigate carbon dioxide/CO2 (e.g., olivine), methane/CH4 (e.g., allophane, gypsum) and nitrous oxide/N2O (e.g., vermiculite) emissions. High surface area minerals offer substantial promise to protect soil carbon, albeit their potential impact here is difficult to quantify. Although mineral-based N2O reduction strategies can achieve gross emission reduction, their application generates a net carbon emission due to prohibitively large mineral quantities needed. By contrast, mineral-based technologies could abate ~9% and 11% of global CO2 and CH4 anthropogenic emissions, respectively. These estimates conservatively only consider options which offer additional benefits to climate change mitigation (e.g., nutrient supply to agricultural landscapes, and safety controls in landfill operations). This multi-benefit aspect is important due to the reluctance to invest in stand-alone GHG mitigation technologies. Minerals that exhibit high GHG mitigation potential are globally abundant. However, their application towards a dedicated global GHG mitigation initiative would entail significant escalation of their current production rates. A detailed cost-benefit analysis and environmental and social footprint assessment is needed to ascertain the strategy's scale-up potential.}, }
@article {pmid38374295, year = {2024}, author = {Silva, T and Lopes, A and Vasconcelos, J and Chokhachian, A and Wagenfeld, M and Santucci, D}, title = {Thermal stress and comfort assessment in urban areas using Copernicus Climate Change Service Era 5 reanalysis and collected microclimatic data.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38374295}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {UI/BD/152225/2021//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; EXPL/GES AMB/0280/2021.//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; 945307//H2020 Research and innovation/ ; }, abstract = {In this initial study of a research project, this paper seeks to understand the thermal conditions in the cities of Lisbon and Munich, specifically focusing on Urban Heat Island intensity and on thermal comfort using the Universal Thermal Climate Index modeling data at the Local Climate Zone scale. Based on these datasets, Munich has exhibited more unfavourable thermal conditions than Lisbon. In terms of UHII, both cities have shown that low, medium, and high rise compact urban areas and bare rock or paved areas have the highest values, while sparsely built areas have the lowest. These results differ from the UTCI, which indicates that in Lisbon and Munich, these sparsely built areas as well as areas with low plants and vegetation are the most uncomfortable. In Munich, the population was exposed to very strong heat stress, while Lisbon experienced strong heat stress conditions. Conversely, low, medium, and high rise compact urban areas and densely wooded areas in Munich, and scattered trees areas and large low-rise urban areas in Lisbon, have demonstrated the lowest monthly mean and average maximum values. These results will be further explored in future studies in the city of Lisbon and cross-checked with data obtained from roving missions. This will enable a more detailed temporal and local analysis.}, }
@article {pmid38374186, year = {2024}, author = {Qiao, H and Peterson, AT and Myers, CE and Yang, Q and Saupe, EE}, title = {Ecological niche conservatism spurs diversification in response to climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38374186}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {NE/V011405/1//RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; Prize//Leverhulme Trust/ ; }, abstract = {Lengthy debate has surrounded the theoretical and empirical science of whether climatic niche evolution is related to increased or decreased rates of biological diversification. Because species can persist for thousands to millions of years, these questions cross broad scales of time and space. Thus, short-term experiments may not provide comprehensive understanding of the system, leading to the emergence of contrasting opinions: niche evolution may increase diversity by allowing species to explore and colonize new geographic areas across which they could speciate; or, niche conservatism might augment biodiversity by supporting isolation of populations that may then undergo allopatric speciation. Here, we use a simulation approach to test how biological diversification responds to different rates and modes of niche evolution. We find that niche conservatism promotes biological diversification, whereas labile niches-whether adapting to the conditions available or changing randomly-generally led to slower diversification rates. These novel results provide a framework for understanding how Earth-life interactions produced such a diverse biota.}, }
@article {pmid38373458, year = {2024}, author = {Tchonkouang, RD and Onyeaka, H and Nkoutchou, H}, title = {Assessing the vulnerability of food supply chains to climate change-induced disruptions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171047}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171047}, pmid = {38373458}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most significant challenges worldwide. There is strong evidence from research that climate change will impact several food chain-related elements such as agricultural output, incomes, prices, food access, food quality, and food safety. This scoping review seeks to outline the state of knowledge of the food supply chain's vulnerability to climate change and to identify existing literature that may guide future research, policy, and decision-making aimed at enhancing the resilience of the food supply chain. A total of 1526 publications were identified using the SCOPUS database, of which 67 were selected for the present study. The vulnerability assessment methods as well as the adaptation and resilience measures that have been employed to alleviate the impact of climate change in the food supply chain were discussed. The results revealed a growing number of publications providing evidence of the weakening of the food supply chain due to climate change and extreme weather events. Our assessment demonstrated the need to broaden research into the entire food supply chain and various forms of climatic variability because most studies have concentrated on the relationships between climatic fluctuations (especially extreme rainfall, temperatures, and drought) and production. A lack of knowledge about the effects of climate change on the food supply chain and the underlying socio-economic consequences could result in underperformance or failure of the food supply chain.}, }
@article {pmid38373453, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, B and Liu, Z and Li, C and Yu, H and Wang, H}, title = {Geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) in China's coastal regions under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {171061}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171061}, pmid = {38373453}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global climate change drives species redistribution, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem heterogeneity. The Kumamoto oyster, Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928), one of the most promising aquaculture species because of its delayed reproductive timing, was once prevalent in southern China. In this study, an ensemble species distribution model was employed to analyze the distribution range shift and ecological niche dynamics of C. sikamea along China's coastline under the current and future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6-8.5 covering 2050s and 2100s). The model results indicated that the current habitat distribution for C. sikamea consists of a continuous stretch extending from the coastlines of Hainan Province to the northern shores of Jiangsu Province. By the 2050s, the distribution range will stabilize at its southern end along the coast of Hainan Province, while expanding northward to cover the coastal areas of Shandong Province, showing a more dramatic trend of contraction in the south and invasion in the north by the 2100s. In RCP8.5, the southern end retracts to the coasts of Guangdong, whereas the northern end covers all of China's coastal areas north of 34°N. C. sikamea can maintain relatively stable ecological niche characteristics, while it may occupy different ecological niche spaces under future climate conditions. Significant niche expansion will occur in lower temperature. We concluded C. sikamea habitats are susceptible to climate change. The rapid northward expansion of C. sikamea may open new possibilities for oyster farming in China, but it will also have important consequences for the ecological balance and biodiversity of receiving areas. It's imperative that we closely examine and strategize to address these repercussions for a win-win situation.}, }
@article {pmid38373438, year = {2024}, author = {Gaudreau, C and Guillaumie, L and Jobin, &#xc9; and Diallo, TA}, title = {Nurses and Climate Change: A Narrative Review of Nursing Associations' Recommendations for Integrating Climate Change Mitigation Strategies.}, journal = {The Canadian journal of nursing research = Revue canadienne de recherche en sciences infirmieres}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {8445621241229932}, doi = {10.1177/08445621241229932}, pmid = {38373438}, issn = {1705-7051}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: According to the World Health Organization, climate change is the greatest challenge of the twenty-first century. It is already affecting the health of many Canadians through extreme heat, wildfires and the expansion of zoonotic diseases. As trusted professionals, nurses are in favourable position to take action on climate change.<br><br>PURPOSE: To document the recommendations issued by Quebec, Canadian, American and international nursing associations regarding nursing practices that address climate change or environmental issues.<br><br>METHODS: This narrative review was conducted by establishing a list of environmental and general nursing associations in the geographical areas of interest through Google searches as well as by retrieving documents about climate change or environmental issues published by these organizations on their websites. Data related to the documents' characteristics and recommended nursing roles were then extracted.<br><br>RESULTS: The review identified 13 nurses' organizations and 20 documents describing 37 recommendations for nurses in seven socioecological areas: individual, patient-focused, workplace, nursing associations, public health organizations, political and education.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is a gap between the breadth of roles that nurses may be called upon to play in addressing climate change and the degree to which relevant organizations are prepared to create the required conditions for them to do so. Several lessons emerged, including that the urgency of the climate crisis requires clear guidelines on how nurses can integrate climate change and its resultant health concerns into practice through nurses' associations, education and bottom-up nursing innovations. Funding is required for such initiatives, which must also prioritize health inequalities.}, }
@article {pmid38373299, year = {2024}, author = {Thanekar, U and Sacks, G and Ruffini, O and Reeve, B and Blake, MR}, title = {Local government stakeholders' perceptions of potential policy actions to influence both climate change and healthy eating in Victoria: A qualitative study.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/hpja.848}, pmid = {38373299}, issn = {1036-1073}, abstract = {ISSUE ADDRESSED: Climate change is a defining public health issue of the 21st century. Food systems are drivers of diet-related disease burden, and account for 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Local governments play a crucial role in improving both the healthiness and environmental sustainability of food systems, but the potential for their actions to simultaneously address these two issues is unclear. This study aimed to explore the perceptions of Australian local government stakeholders regarding policy actions simultaneously addressing healthy eating and climate change, and the influences on policy adoption.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted 11 in-depth semi-structured interviews with stakeholders from four local governments in Victoria, Australia. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. We applied Multiple Streams Theory (MST) 'problem', 'politics and 'policy' domains to explain policy adoption influences at the local government level.<br><br>RESULTS: Key influences on local government action aligned with MST elements of 'problem' (e.g., local government's existing risk reports as drivers for climate change action), 'policy' (e.g., budgetary constraints) and 'politics' (e.g., local government executive agenda). We found limited evidence of coherent policy action in the areas of community gardens, food procurement and urban land use.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Barriers to further action, such as resource constraints and competing priorities, could be overcome by better tailoring policy action areas to community needs, with the help of external partnerships and local government executive support. SO WHAT?: This study demonstrates that Victorian local stakeholders believe they are well-positioned to implement feasible and coherent interventions that address both healthy eating and climate.}, }
@article {pmid38372993, year = {2024}, author = {Beggs, PJ}, title = {Thunderstorm Asthma and Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2023.26649}, pmid = {38372993}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid38372926, year = {2024}, author = {Roy, P and Pal, SC and Chakrabortty, R and Chowdhuri, I and Saha, A and Ruidas, D and Islam, ARMT and Islam, A}, title = {Climate change and geo-environmental factors influencing desertification: a critical review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38372926}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The problem of desertification (DSF) is one of the most severe environmental disasters which influence the overall condition of the environment. In Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit on Environment and Development (1922), DSF is defined as arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid induced LD and that is adopted at the UNEP's Nairobi ad hoc meeting in 1977. It has been seen that there is no variability in the trend of long-term rainfall, but the change has been found in the variability of temperature (avg. temp. 0-5 °C). There is no proof that the air pollution brought on by CO2 and other warming gases is the cause of this rise, which seems to be partially caused by urbanization. The two types of driving factors in DSF-CC (climate change) along with anthropogenic influences-must be compared in order to work and take action to stop DSF from spreading. The proportional contributions of human activity and CC to DSF have been extensively evaluated in this work from "qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative" perspectives. In this study, we have tried to connect the drives of desertification to desertification-induced migration due to loss of biodiversity and agriculture failure. The authors discovered that several of the issues from the earlier studies persisted. The policy-makers should follow the proper SLM (soil and land management) through using the land. The afforestation with social forestry and consciousness among the people can reduce the spreading of the desertification (Badapalli et al. 2023). The green wall is also playing an important role to reduce the desertification. For instance, it was clear that assessments were subjective; they could not be readily replicated, and they always relied on administrative areas rather than being taken and displayed in a continuous space. This research is trying to fulfill the mentioned research gap with the help of the existing literatures related to this field.}, }
@article {pmid38372475, year = {2024}, author = {Xie, L and Wu, X and Li, X and Chen, M and Zhang, N and Zong, S and Yan, Y}, title = {Impacts of climate change and host plant availability on the potential distribution of Bradysia odoriphaga (Diptera: Sciaridae) in China.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.7977}, pmid = {38372475}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {ZR2020MC046//Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province/ ; 31970401//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 31401957//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 31501847//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Chinese chives (Allium tuberosum Rottler ex Sprengel) are favored by consumers because of its delicious taste and unique fragrance. Bradysia odoriphaga (Diptera: Sciaridae) is a main pest that severely harms Chinese chives and other Liliaceae's production. Climate change may change the future distribution of B. odoriphaga in China. In this study, the CLIMEX was employed to project the potential distribution of B. odoriphaga in China, based on China's historical climate data (1987-2016) and forecast climate data (2021-2100).<br><br>RESULTS: Bradysia odoriphaga distributed mainly between 19.8&#xb0;&#x2009;N-48.3&#xb0;&#x2009;N and 74.8&#xb0;&#x2009;E-134.3&#xb0;&#x2009;E, accounting for 73.25% of the total mainland area of China under historical climate conditions. Among them, the favorable and highly favorable habitats accounted for 30.64% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, B. odoriphaga will be distributed mainly between 19.8&#xb0;&#x2009;N-49.3&#xb0;&#x2009;N and 73.8&#xb0;&#x2009;E-134.3&#xb0;&#x2009;E, accounting for 84.89% of China's total mainland area. Among them, the favorable and highly favorable habitats will account for 35.23% of the total potential distribution, indicating an increase in the degree of fitness. Areas with relatively appropriate temperature and humidity will be more suitable for the survival of B. odoriphaga. Temperature was a more important determinant of the climatic suitability of the pest B. odoriphaga than humidity. Host plants (Liliaceae) availability also had impact on climate suitability in some regions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These projected potential distributions will provide supportive information for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks, and to reduce future economic and ecological losses. &#xa9; 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid38371414, year = {2024}, author = {Rubio-Casal, AE and Ibrahim, MFM}, title = {Editorial: Physiological traits and stress detection in crops during global climate change: availability and sustainable use of water resources.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1371044}, pmid = {38371414}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid38370953, year = {2023}, author = {Torales, J and Castaldelli-Maia, JM and Ventriglio, A and Barrios, I and Almirón-Santacruz, J and García, O and Caycho-Rodríguez, T and Day, G and Menon, V and Sri, A and Persaud, A and Bhugra, D}, title = {The CAPE (Compassion, Assertive Action, Pragmatism, and Evidence) vulnerability index - Second Edition: Putting mental health into foreign policy to address globalization, conflict, climate change, and natural disasters.}, journal = {Industrial psychiatry journal}, volume = {32}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S15-S31}, pmid = {38370953}, issn = {0972-6748}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The CAPE Vulnerability Index serves as a worldwide foreign policy indicator that implies which countries should get assistance first. It provides an evidence-based, well-structured, and well-reasoned strategy for employing aid in bilateral arrangements with mental health as a basis.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The second edition of the CAPE VI has been developed to identify which nations should get priority foreign aid.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: We considered various indices or measures at the country level reflecting the average national health status or factors influencing public health. To make our choice, we used 26 internationally accessible and verified indicators. For the study, we have scored the countries according to these indices and prioritized those with the worst scores.<br><br>RESULTS: The CAPE Vulnerability Index is based on the number of times a country is ranked among the low-scoring nations. It is based on nine parameters and is an independent measure even though there may be a correlation with similar indices such as life expectancy, disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), physician numbers, and gross domestic product(GDP).<br><br>CONCLUSION: We concluded that low-scoring countries were fragile or failed states, such as nations where governments lack complete oversight or power, are often oppressive and corrupt, have allegations of violations of human rights, or are marked by political turmoil in different forms, drawbacks from severe environmental damage, severe impoverishment, inequalities, cultural and racial divisions, cannot supply fundamental amenities, are victims of terrorism, and so on. To address these essential problems impacting fragile nations, administrations, aid donors, local organizations, mental health specialists, and associations should collaborate.}, }
@article {pmid38370864, year = {2024}, author = {Kowalcyk, M and Dorevitch, S}, title = {A Framework for Evaluating Local Adaptive Capacity to Health Impacts of Climate Change: Use of Kenya's County-Level Integrated Development Plans.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {90}, number = {1}, pages = {15}, pmid = {38370864}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Kenya ; *Disasters ; Health Promotion ; Social Planning ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Health National Adaptation Plans were developed to increase the capacity of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to adapt to the impacts of climate change on the health sector. Climate and its health impacts vary locally, yet frameworks for evaluating the adaptive capacity of health systems on the subnational scale are lacking. In Kenya, counties prepare county integrated development plans (CIDPs), which contain information that might support evaluations of the extent to which counties are planning climate change adaptation for health.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To develop and apply a framework for evaluating CIDPs to assess the extent to which Kenya's counties are addressing the health sector's adaptive capacity to climate change.<br><br>METHODS: CIDPs were analyzed based on the extent to which they addressed climate change in their description of county health status, whether health is noted in their descriptions of climate change, and whether they mention plans for developing climate and health programs. Based on these and other data points, composite climate and health adaptation (CHA) scores were calculated. Associations between CHA scores and poverty rates were analyzed.<br><br>FINDINGS: CHA scores varied widely and were not associated with county-level poverty. Nearly all CIDPs noted climate change, approximately half mentioned health in the context of climate change and only 16 (34%) noted one or more specific climate-sensitive health conditions. Twelve (25%) had plans for a sub-program in both adaptive capacity and environmental health. Among the 24 counties with plans to develop climate-related programs in health programs, all specified capacity building, and 20% specified integrating health into disaster risk reduction.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Analyses of county planning documents provide insights into the extent to which the impacts of climate change on health are being addressed at the subnational level in Kenya. This approach may support governments elsewhere in evaluating climate change adaptation for health by subnational governments.}, }
@article {pmid38370553, year = {2024}, author = {Crino, OL and Bonduriansky, R and Martin, LB and Noble, DWA}, title = {A conceptual framework for understanding stress-induced physiological and transgenerational effects on population responses to climate change.}, journal = {Evolution letters}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {161-171}, pmid = {38370553}, issn = {2056-3744}, abstract = {Organisms are experiencing higher average temperatures and greater temperature variability because of anthropogenic climate change. Some populations respond to changes in temperature by shifting their ranges or adjusting their phenotypes via plasticity and/or evolution, while others go extinct. Predicting how populations will respond to temperature changes is challenging because extreme and unpredictable climate changes will exert novel selective pressures. For this reason, there is a need to understand the physiological mechanisms that regulate organismal responses to temperature changes. In vertebrates, glucocorticoid hormones mediate physiological and behavioral responses to environmental stressors and thus are likely to play an important role in how vertebrates respond to global temperature changes. Glucocorticoids have cascading effects that influence the phenotype and fitness of individuals, and some of these effects can be transmitted to offspring via trans- or intergenerational effects. Consequently, glucocorticoid-mediated responses could affect populations and could even be a powerful driver of rapid evolutionary change. Here, we present a conceptual framework that outlines how temperature changes due to global climate change could affect population persistence via glucocorticoid responses within and across generations (via epigenetic modifications). We briefly review glucocorticoid physiology, the interactions between environmental temperatures and glucocorticoid responses, and the phenotypic consequences of glucocorticoid responses within and across generations. We then discuss possible hypotheses for how glucocorticoid-mediated phenotypic effects might impact fitness and population persistence via evolutionary change. Finally, we pose pressing questions to guide future research. Understanding the physiological mechanisms that underpin the responses of vertebrates to elevated temperatures will help predict population-level responses to the changing climates we are experiencing.}, }
@article {pmid38370552, year = {2024}, author = {Nomoto, H and Fior, S and Alexander, J}, title = {Competitors alter selection on alpine plants exposed to experimental climate change.}, journal = {Evolution letters}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {114-127}, pmid = {38370552}, issn = {2056-3744}, abstract = {Investigating how climate change alters selection regimes is a crucial step toward understanding the potential of populations to evolve in the face of changing conditions. Previous studies have mainly focused on understanding how changing climate directly influences selection, while the role of species' interactions has received little attention. Here, we used a transplant experiment along an elevation gradient to estimate how climate warming and competitive interactions lead to shifts in directional phenotypic selection on morphology and phenology of four alpine plants. We found that warming generally imposed novel selection, with the largest shifts in regimes acting on specific leaf area and flowering time across species. Competitors instead weakened the selection acting on traits that was imposed directly by warming. Weakened or absent selection in the presence of competitors was largely associated with the suppression of absolute means and variation of fitness. Our results suggest that although climate change can impose strong selection, competitive interactions within communities might act to limit selection and thereby stymie evolutionary responses in alpine plants facing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38370544, year = {2024}, author = {Urban, MC and Swaegers, J and Stoks, R and Snook, RR and Otto, SP and Noble, DWA and Moiron, M and Hällfors, MH and Gómez-Llano, M and Fior, S and Cote, J and Charmantier, A and Bestion, E and Berger, D and Baur, J and Alexander, JM and Saastamoinen, M and Edelsparre, AH and Teplitsky, C}, title = {When and how can we predict adaptive responses to climate change?.}, journal = {Evolution letters}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {172-187}, pmid = {38370544}, issn = {2056-3744}, abstract = {Predicting if, when, and how populations can adapt to climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges in science today. Here, we build from contributions to the special issue on evolutionary adaptation to climate change, a survey of its authors, and recent literature to explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. We outline what might be predictable now, in the future, and perhaps never even with our best efforts. More accurate predictions are expected for traits characterized by a well-understood mapping between genotypes and phenotypes and traits experiencing strong, direct selection due to climate change. A meta-analysis revealed an overall moderate trait heritability and evolvability in studies performed under future climate conditions but indicated no significant change between current and future climate conditions, suggesting neither more nor less genetic variation for adapting to future climates. Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, especially for the many species without sufficient ecological data. Still, when polled, authors contributing to this special issue were relatively optimistic about our ability to predict future evolutionary responses to climate change. Predictions will improve as we expand efforts to understand diverse organisms, their ecology, and their adaptive potential. Advancements in functional genomic resources, especially their extension to non-model species and the union of evolutionary experiments and "omics," should also enhance predictions. Although predicting evolutionary responses to climate change remains challenging, even small advances will reduce the substantial uncertainties surrounding future evolutionary responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38370543, year = {2024}, author = {Edelsparre, AH and Fitzpatrick, MJ and Saastamoinen, M and Teplitsky, C}, title = {Evolutionary adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Evolution letters}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {1-7}, pmid = {38370543}, issn = {2056-3744}, abstract = {When the notion of climate change emerged over 200 years ago, few speculated as to the impact of rising atmospheric temperatures on biological life. Tens of decades later, research clearly demonstrates that the impact of climate change on life on Earth is enormous, ongoing, and with foreseen effects lasting well into the next century. Responses to climate change have been widely documented. However, the breadth of phenotypic traits involved with evolutionary adaptation to climate change remains unclear. In addition, it is difficult to identify the genetic and/or epigenetic bases of phenotypes adaptive to climate change, in part because it often is not clear whether this change is plastic, genetic, or some combination of the two. Adaptive responses to climate-driven selection also interact with other processes driving genetic changes in general, including demography as well as selection driven by other factors. In this Special Issue, we explore the factors that will impact the overall outcome of climate change adaptation. Our contributions explain that traits involved in climate change adaptation include not only classic phenomena, such as range shifts and environmentally dependent sex determination, but also often overlooked phenomena such as social and sexual conflicts and the expression of stress hormones. We learn how climate-driven selection can be mediated via both natural and sexual selection, effectively influencing key fitness-related traits such as offspring growth and fertility as well as evolutionary potential. Finally, we explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. This contribution forms the basis of 10 actions that we believe will improve predictions of when and how organisms may adapt genetically to climate change. We anticipate that this Special Issue will inform novel investigations into how the effects of climate change unfold from phenotypes to genotypes, particularly as methodologies increasingly allow researchers to study selection in field experiments.}, }
@article {pmid38370540, year = {2024}, author = {Nadeau, CP and Urban, MC}, title = {Macroecological predictors of evolutionary and plastic potential do not apply at microgeographic scales for a freshwater cladoceran under climate change.}, journal = {Evolution letters}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {43-55}, pmid = {38370540}, issn = {2056-3744}, abstract = {Rapid evolutionary adaptation could reduce the negative impacts of climate change if sufficient heritability of key traits exists under future climate conditions. Plastic responses to climate change could also reduce negative impacts. Understanding which populations are likely to respond via evolution or plasticity could therefore improve estimates of extinction risk. A large body of research suggests that the evolutionary and plastic potential of a population can be predicted by the degree of spatial and temporal climatic variation it experiences. However, we know little about the scale at which these relationships apply. Here, we test if spatial and temporal variation in temperature affects genetic variation and plasticity of fitness and a key thermal tolerance trait (critical thermal maximum; CTmax) at microgeographic scales using a metapopulation of Daphnia magna in freshwater rock pools. Specifically, we ask if (a) there is a microgeographic adaptation of CTmax and fitness to differences in temperature among the pools, (b) pools with greater temporal temperature variation have more genetic variation or plasticity in CTmax or fitness, and (c) increases in temperature affect the heritability of CTmax and fitness. Although we observed genetic variation and plasticity in CTmax and fitness, and differences in fitness among pools, we did not find support for the predicted relationships between temperature variation and genetic variation or plasticity. Furthermore, the genetic variation and plasticity we observed in CTmax are unlikely sufficient to reduce the impacts of climate change. CTmax plasticity was minimal and heritability was 72% lower when D. magna developed at the higher temperatures predicted under climate change. In contrast, the heritability of fitness increased by 53% under warmer temperatures, suggesting an increase in overall evolutionary potential unrelated to CTmax under climate change. More research is needed to understand the evolutionary and plastic potential under climate change and how that potential will be altered in future climates.}, }
@article {pmid38369993, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {Correction to: Impact of climate change on animal health and welfare.}, journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {61}, doi = {10.1093/af/vfae002}, pmid = {38369993}, issn = {2160-6064}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/af/vfy030.].}, }
@article {pmid38367154, year = {2024}, author = {Mullineaux, ST and McKinley, JM and Marks, NJ and Doherty, R and Scantlebury, DM}, title = {A nose for trouble: ecotoxicological implications for climate change and disease in Saiga antelope (S. t. tatarica).}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {46}, number = {3}, pages = {93}, pmid = {38367154}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {Internal Grant//Prof. John Glover Memorial Fund, Queen's University Belfast (QUB)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Antelopes/microbiology ; Climate Change ; Kazakhstan ; *Environmental Pollutants ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, Saiga antelope (Saiga t. tatarica) mass die-offs have become more common. The mass die-off of 2015 in central Kazakhstan, recorded 140,000 individual deaths across multiple herds. Previously, research has shown atmospheric humidity, the bacterium Pasteurella multocida serotype B, and resultant haemorrhagic septicaemia, were the primary cause. However, other synergistic factors may have impacted this process. Here we use a multivariate compositional data analysis (CoDA) approach to assess what other factors may have been involved. We show a pollutant linkage mechanism where relative humidity and dewpoint temperature combine with environmental pollutants, potentially toxic elements (e.g., Hg, As), complex carbon compounds (e.g., Acetone, Toluene), and inorganic compounds (e.g., CHx, SO2) which affected the Saiga during the calving season (start and peak) and at the onset of the mass die-off. We suggest a mechanism for this process. Upon arrival at their carving grounds, the Saiga experienced a sudden precipitation event, a spike in temperatures, and resultant high humidity occurs. The infectious bacterium P. multocida serotype B then spreads. Further, environmental pollutants contained within steppe soils are released to the air, forming localised smog events, these synergistically combine, and mass die-off occurs.}, }
@article {pmid38365312, year = {2024}, author = {Sarfaty, M}, title = {How Physicians Should Respond to Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine : JABFM}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3122/jabfm.2023.230405R1}, pmid = {38365312}, issn = {1558-7118}, abstract = {Urgent warnings about the existential threat of climate change are coming from leaders in nearly every sector of society, including virtually all climate scientists, notable heads of civil governments around the globe, the world's top religious leaders, prestigious medical journals, as well as principals of the largest financial firms. Surveys show that the majority of U.S. physicians in several specialties are caring for patients who are experiencing direct health harms due to climate change. In public platforms, physicians are expressing their awareness that this public health crisis places everyone at risk, but many people are at greater risk, including children, pregnant women, people with chronic health conditions, elders, and those who experience environmental injustice or live in harm's way. Physicians should respond to this crisis with meaningful activities performed within the context of their current roles. The role of medical care provider is the best known role. But, throughout their careers, physicians have ongoing responsibilities as educators of colleagues, trainees, and patients. They are influential employees of medical institutions, trusted experts who exercise civic responsibility, and sources of guidance for public policymakers. Physicians and other health professionals, individually and through their organizations, also work to influence our societal response to the challenge of climate change. The first annual Lancet Journal Countdown Report in 2016 tracking health indicators of climate change stated that climate change had the potential to wipe out all public health gains of the last half century, but it also presents a tremendous opportunity to save lives and improve health. All physicians should work toward the latter outcome.}, }
@article {pmid38365309, year = {2024}, author = {Hertenstein Perez, A}, title = {Climate Change: How Will Family Physicians Rise to the Challenge?.}, journal = {Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine : JABFM}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3122/jabfm.2022.220013R1}, pmid = {38365309}, issn = {1558-7118}, }
@article {pmid38365281, year = {2024}, author = {Burns, PA and Mutunga, C}, title = {Addressing the Impact of Climate Change on Sexual and Reproductive Health Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.}, journal = {Global health, science and practice}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.9745/GHSP-D-23-00374}, pmid = {38365281}, issn = {2169-575X}, }
@article {pmid38365060, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, T and Liu, H and Lu, Y and Wang, Q and Loh, YC and Li, Z}, title = {Impact of climate change on coastal ecosystem: A comparative analysis among four largest coastline covering countries.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118405}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118405}, pmid = {38365060}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Climate change and coastal ecosystems have become challenging subjects for world sustainability. Humans, animals, and other ocean habitats are primarily affected by the harmful changes in climate. Coastal ecosystems support biodiversity and a wide range of species that serve as habitats for many commercially important fish species and enhance human activities in coastal areas. By engaging in coastal outdoor activities, individuals can experience numerous physical and mental health benefits, foster environmental awareness. This study provided valuable insights into the importance of coastal outdoor activities and their potential to improve our quality of life. This study undertook a challenging subject where we graphically and econometrically analyze the relationship and linkages among coastal indicators with other climate-concerning factors. The study comprises the ordinary regression and comparative analysis among the four largest coastline countries in the world. The study took a sample from Canada, Indonesia, Norway, and the Russian Federation from 1990 to 2022. The data is selected on a convenient basis. Results declared that each country has its unique challenges and opportunities in mitigating adverse climate change and retaining a sustainable coastal ecosystem. The study surprisingly revealed that climate change insignificantly affects the coastal ecosystem in Indonesia and the Russian Federation while it inversely affects the coastal ecosystem in Canada and Norway, showed that climate change on average declines coastal production by 0.0041922 and 0.0261104 in Canada and Norway respectively. The detailed review is given in the results section; however, the pooling analysis proved that at the aggregate level, a one percent increase in climate change caused a 0.02266-tonne decline in coastal ecosystems in the four largest coastline nations. There is a need for policies tend to increase CAP activities by implementing practical marine protected areas. Furthermore, scientific research and monitoring will be beneficial in restoring coastal sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid38365058, year = {2024}, author = {Reddy, NM and Saravanan, S and Paneerselvam, B}, title = {Integrating conceptual and machine learning models to enhance daily-Scale streamflow simulation and assessing climate change impact in the watersheds of the Godavari basin, India.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118403}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118403}, pmid = {38365058}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {This study examined and addressed climate change's effects on hydrological patterns, particularly in critical places like the Godavari River basin. This study used daily gridded rainfall and temperature datasets from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for model training and testing, 70% and 30%, respectively. To anticipate future hydrological shifts, the study harnessed the EC-Earth3 data, presenting an innovative methodology tailored to the unique hydrological dynamics of the Godavari River basin. The Sacramento model provided initial streamflow estimates for Kanhargaon, Nowrangpur, and Wairagarh. This approach melded traditional hydrological modeling with advanced multi-layer perceptron (MLP) capabilities. When combined with parameters like lagged rainfall, lagged streamflow, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and temperature variations, these initial outputs were further refined using the Sac-MLP model. A comparison with Sacramento revealed the superior performance of the Sac-MLP model. For instance, during training, the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values for the Sac-MLP witnessed an improvement from 0.610 to 0.810 in Kanhargaon, 0.580 to 0.692 in Nowrangpur, and 0.675 to 0.849 in Wairagarh. The results of the testing further corroborated these findings, as evidenced by the increase in the NSE for Kanhargaon from 0.890 to 0.910. Additionally, Nowrangpur and Wairagarh experienced notable improvements, with their NSE values rising from 0.629 to 0.785 and 0.725 to 0.902, respectively. Projections based on EC-Earth3 data across various scenarios highlighted significant shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns, especially in the far future (2071-2100). Regarding the relative change in annual streamflow, Kanhargaon projections under SSP370 and SSP585 for the far future indicate increases of 584.38% and 662.74%. Similarly, Nowrangpur and Wairagarh are projected to see increases of 98.27% and 114.98%, and 81.68% and 108.08%, respectively. This study uses EC-Earth3 estimates to demonstrate the Sac-MLP model's accuracy and importance in climate change water resource planning. The unique method for region-specific hydrological analysis provides vital insights for sustainable water resource management. This research provides a deeper understanding of climate-induced hydrological changes and a robust modeling approach for accurate predictions in changing environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38365041, year = {2024}, author = {Cannone, N and Malfasi, F}, title = {Climate change triggered synchronous woody plants recruitment in the last two centuries in the treeline ecotone of the Northern Hemisphere.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170953}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170953}, pmid = {38365041}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change triggers several ecosystem responses, including woody plant encroachment. We analyse woody plant recruitment across the treeline ecotone (the forest-tundra ecotone) of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) over an extended period (1801-2010) and its relation with atmospheric CO2 and air temperature. We detected a synchronous trend of woody plant recruitment across the NH, indicating a major climatic and environmental change, triggered by a combination of CO2 fertilization and air temperature changes. The drivers of woody plant recruitment changed with time: CO2 fertilization was the main driver in the period 1801-1950, while air temperature was the main driver after 1950, despite the drastic acceleration of CO2 increase in the last decades. These data support the hypothesis that we are shifting from a fertilization-dominated to a warming-dominated period. The temporal patterns of woody plant recruitment are consistent with the occurrence of the 1980 regime shift, a major change occurred in the Earth's biophysical systems. Indeed, the recruitment drop promoted by the 1960s-1980s air cooling, was followed by an intensive recruitment increase triggered by the restart of air warming in the last decades. The largest sensitivity and fastest resilience of evergreen and Pinaceae to the restart of air warming allows to hypothesize that, among the woody plant functional and taxonomic groups, they could perform the largest expansion also in future decades.}, }
@article {pmid38365017, year = {2024}, author = {Esteban-Cantillo, OJ and Menendez, B and Quesada, B}, title = {Climate change and air pollution impacts on cultural heritage building materials in Europe and Mexico.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170945}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170945}, pmid = {38365017}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate and air pollution have adverse effects on cultural heritage building materials. However, the quantified damage due to modeled changes in climate and air pollution is still poorly studied. Here, we review first the damage affecting these materials and the associated damage equations in the literature. Across all relevant studies (n = 87), we found only nine independent equations to estimate different damage categories, mainly limited to limestones. Then, by using current meteorological data and future bias-corrected CMIP6 climate and air pollution data at high resolution (1 km; historical and business-as-usual scenario) and applying these equations, we quantified the relative contributions of climate and air pollution changes on the building materials of eight cultural heritage sites of the European project Sustainable COnservation and REstoration of built cultural heritage (SCORE) from 2020 to 2100. On average across the sites, a significant decrease in damage is projected in surface recession (-10 % ± 10 %), biomass accumulation (-20 % ± 18 %), and wind-rain erosion (-7 % ± 6 %) in response to future climate and air pollution changes, except in the regions where precipitation substantially increases (Northern Europe). A large uncertainty in the relative magnitude of the damage to built cultural heritage materials was found for the same site, changes in surface recession vary up to a 40 % difference across the equations. Moreover, thermal expansion and lifetime multiplier equations project an increase in the related damage while all the other types of damage are significantly reduced. Finally, in general, but not systematically, climate-induced damage was found to be predominant over the pollution-induced one. Our results allow prioritizing cultural heritage maintenance decisions in regions where damage will further increase. Beyond simulated damages which are still limited use, we urge more campaign studies to determine real in situ damage in different climate locations to validate or build the best equations.}, }
@article {pmid38364534, year = {2024}, author = {Omri, A and Boubaker, S}, title = {When do climate change legislation and clean energy policies matter for net-zero emissions?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {354}, number = {}, pages = {120275}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120275}, pmid = {38364534}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Achieving the global decarbonization goal under global conflicts is becoming more uncertain. Within this context, this article seeks to examine the effects of global environmental management and efforts to achieve this goal. Specifically, it investigates the role of democracy, control of corruption, and civil society participation as mechanisms that moderate the impact of environmental policy and legislation, particularly clean energy policy and climate change legislation (laws and regulations), on carbon emissions in highly polluted countries. The empirical results show that (i) the effects of democracy-clean energy policies and climate change legislation are relatively small in reducing carbon emissions; (ii) the effect of controlling corruption-climate change regulations is strong in reducing emissions, meaning that governments with higher control of corruption are more effective at enacting and executing laws and regulations dealing with environmental challenges which help achieve desirable environmental outcomes; (iii) strong civil society participation helps the execution of clean energy policies and climate change legislation to curb emissions, and (iv) the robustness check also provides strong evidence that higher control of corruption can contribute to the effectiveness of these policies and legislation in reducing carbon emissions. Overall, these findings suggest that the efficiency of well-designed environmental policy and legislation should be supported by a combination of higher civil society participation and greater control of corruption that can efficiently enforce such policies and legislation.}, }
@article {pmid38361158, year = {2024}, author = {Wight, AJ}, title = {Why is Latin America on fire? It's not just climate change, scientists say.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-00471-4}, pmid = {38361158}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38360727, year = {2024}, author = {Li, G and Törnqvist, TE and Dangendorf, S}, title = {Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {1226}, pmid = {38360727}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Predicting climate impacts is challenging and has to date relied on indirect methods, notably modeling. Here we examine coastal ecosystem change during 13 years of unusually rapid, albeit likely temporary, sea-level rise (> 10 mm yr[-1]) in the Gulf of Mexico. Such rates, which may become a persistent feature in the future due to anthropogenic climate change, drove rising water levels of similar magnitude in Louisiana's coastal wetlands. Measurements of surface-elevation change at 253 monitoring sites show that 87% of these sites are unable to keep up with rising water levels. We find no evidence for enhanced wetland elevation gain through ecogeomorphic feedbacks, where more frequent inundation would lead to enhanced biomass accumulation that could counterbalance rising water levels. We attribute this to the exceptionally rapid sea-level rise during this time period. Under the current climate trajectory (SSP2-4.5), drowning of ~75% of Louisiana's coastal wetlands is a plausible outcome by 2070.}, }
@article {pmid38360325, year = {2024}, author = {Weeda, LJZ and Bradshaw, CJA and Judge, MA and Saraswati, CM and Le Souëf, PN}, title = {How climate change degrades child health: A systematic review and meta-analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170944}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170944}, pmid = {38360325}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Children are more vulnerable than adults to climate-related health threats, but reviews examining how climate change affects human health have been mainly descriptive and lack an assessment of the magnitude of health effects children face. This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis that identifies which climate-health relationships pose the greatest threat the children.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We reviewed epidemiologic studies to analyse various child-health outcomes due to climate change and identify the relationships with the largest effect size. We identify population-specific risks and provide recommendations for future research.<br><br>METHODS: We searched four large online databases for observational studies published up to 5 January 2023 following PRISMA (systematic review) guidelines. We evaluated each included study individually and aggregated relevant quantitative data. We used quantitative data in our meta-analysis, where we standardised effect sizes and compared them among different groupings of climate variables and health outcomes.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 1301 articles we identified, 163 studies were eligible for analysis. We identified many relationships between climate change and child health, the strongest of which was increasing risk (60&#x202f;% on average) of preterm birth from exposure to temperature extremes. Respiratory disease, mortality, and morbidity, among others, were also influenced by climate changes. The effects of different air pollutants on health outcomes were considerably smaller compared to temperature effects, but with most (16/20&#x202f;=&#x202f;80&#x202f;%) pollutant studies indicating at least a weak effect. Most studies occurred in high-income regions, but we found no geographical clustering according to health outcome, climate variable, or magnitude of risk. The following factors were protective of climate-related child-health threats: (i) economic stability and strength, (ii) access to quality healthcare, (iii) adequate infrastructure, and (iv) food security. Threats to these services vary by local geographical, climate, and socio-economic conditions. Children will have increased prevalence of disease due to anthropogenic climate change, and our quantification of the impact of various aspects of climate change on child health can contribute to the planning of mitigation that will improve the health of current and future generations.}, }
@article {pmid38359382, year = {2024}, author = {Hajat, S and Gampe, D and Petrou, G}, title = {Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976-2019.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e1-e5}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2023.307552}, pmid = {38359382}, issn = {1541-0048}, abstract = {Objectives. To quantify past reductions in cold-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Methods. We performed a daily time-series regression analysis employing distributed lag nonlinear models of 1 203 981 deaths in Greater London, United Kingdom, in winter months (November-March) during 1976 to 2019. We made attribution assessment by comparing differential cold-related mortality impacts associated with observed temperatures to those using counterfactual temperatures representing no climate change. Results. Over the past decade, the average number of cold days (below 8 °C) per year was 120 in the observed series and 158 in the counterfactual series. Since 1976, we estimate 447 (95% confidence interval = 330, 559) annual cold-related all-cause deaths have been avoided because of milder temperatures associated with climate change. Annually, 241 cardiovascular and 73 respiratory disease deaths have been avoided. Conclusions. Anthropogenic climate change made some contribution to reducing previous cold-related deaths in London; however, cold remains an important public health risk factor. Public Health Implications. Better adaptation to both heat and cold should be promoted in public health measures to protect against climate change. In England, this has been addressed by the development of a new year-round Adverse Weather and Health Plan. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print February 15, 2024:e1-e5. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307552).}, }
@article {pmid38358612, year = {2024}, author = {Hough, E and Cohen Tanugi-Carresse, A}, title = {Supporting Decarbonization of Health Systems-A Review of International Policy and Practice on Health Care and Climate Change.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38358612}, issn = {2196-5412}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Healthcare is a significant contributor of carbon emissions, which contribute to climate change. There has been an increased focus on the role healthcare should play in reducing emissions in recent years. This review, completed in September and October 2022, explored national commitments among 73 countries to reduce emissions from healthcare and the policies and delivery plans that exist to support their implementation.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Whilst some countries such as Norway, Columbia, and Australia are working to understand current emissions and develop plans to reduce them, few have published delivery plans for meeting national targets. Broader policies and reports published to date provide a clear set of actions that healthcare can take to reduce emissions. However, more research, innovation, and service redesign will be needed to close the gap to net zero healthcare. Some health systems are already taking action to reduce their emissions. However, national incentives, including standardized metrics and reporting, can help drive broader action and pace of delivery.}, }
@article {pmid38358512, year = {2024}, author = {Sloane, DR and Ens, E and Wunungmurra, Y and Mununggurr, L and Falk, A and Wunungmurra, R and Gumana, G and Towler, G and Preece, D and , }, title = {Can Exclusion of Feral Ecosystem Engineers Improve Coastal Floodplain Resilience to Climate Change? Insight from a Case Study in North East Arnhem Land, Australia.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38358512}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {Global climate change can interact with local drivers, such as ecosystem engineers, to exacerbate changes in ecosystem structure and function, with socio-ecological consequences. For regions of Indigenous interest, there may also be cultural consequences if species and areas affected are culturally significant. Here we describe a participatory approach between the Indigenous (Yolngu) Yirralka Rangers and non-Indigenous researchers that explored the interaction between sea level rise and feral ungulate ecosystem engineers on culturally significant floodplains in the Laynhapuy Indigenous Protected Area (IPA), northern Australia. A feral ungulate exclusion fence array (12 fenced and 12 unfenced plots) was stratified by elevation/salinity to disentangle the effects of salinity and ungulates on floodplain soil and vegetation. We found that exclusion of feral ungulates improved ground cover vegetation, which, according to our literature-derived ecosystem process model, may enhance soil trapping and reduce evapotranspiration to provide the antecedent conditions needed to improve floodplain resilience to sea level rise. The mid-zone of the supratidal floodplain study site was suggested as the region where the benefits of fencing were most pronounced after two years and ground cover species diversity was highest. Ongoing monitoring is required to investigate whether removal of feral ungulates can increase resilience against sea level rise and recruitment of eco-culturally significant Melaleuca species. An interview with a key Yolngu Traditional Owner of the study site demonstrated the importance and effectiveness of the partnership. Yolngu land owners and rangers were active co-researchers and will decide if, when and how to integrate results into feral ungulate management and climate adaptation responses, highlighting the importance of industry-university partnerships in maximising biocultural conservation outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid38358493, year = {2024}, author = {Mishra, BR and Vogeti, RK and Jauhari, R and Raju, KS and Kumar, DN}, title = {Boosting algorithms for projecting streamflow in the Lower Godavari Basin for different climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {89}, number = {3}, pages = {613-634}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2024.011}, pmid = {38358493}, issn = {0273-1223}, abstract = {The present study investigates the ability of five boosting algorithms, namely Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), Light Gradient Boosting (LGBoost), Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) for simulating streamflow in the Lower Godavari Basin, India. Monthly rainfall, temperatures, and streamflow from 1982 to 2020 were used for training and testing. Kling Gupta Efficiency (KGE) was deployed to assess the ability of the boosting algorithms. It was observed that all the boosting algorithms had shown good simulating ability, having KGE values of AdaBoost (0.87, 0.85), CatBoost (0.90, 0.78), LGBoost (0.95, 0.93), NGBoost (0.95, 0.95), and XGBoost (0.91, 0.90), respectively, in training and testing. Thus, all the algorithms were used for projecting streamflow in a climate change perspective for the short-term projections (2025-2050) and long-term projections (2051-2075) for four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The highest streamflow for all four SSPs in the case of NGBoost is more than the historical scenario (9382 m[3]/s), whereas vice-versa for the remaining four. The effect of ensembling the outputs of five algorithms is also studied and compared with that of individual algorithms.}, }
@article {pmid38358427, year = {2024}, author = {Boyacioglu, H and Gunacti, MC and Barbaros, F and Gul, A and Gul, GO and Ozturk, T and Kurnaz, ML}, title = {Impact of climate change and land cover dynamics on nitrate transport to surface waters.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {3}, pages = {270}, pmid = {38358427}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {The study investigated the impact of climate and land cover change on water quality. The novel contribution of the study was to investigate the individual and combined impacts of climate and land cover change on water quality with high spatial and temporal resolution in a basin in Turkey. The global circulation model MPI-ESM-MR was dynamically downscaled to 10-km resolution under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model stream flow and nitrate loads. The land cover model outputs that were produced by the Land Change Modeler (LCM) were used for these simulation studies. Results revealed that decreasing precipitation intensity driven by climate change could significantly reduce nitrate transport to surface waters. In the 2075-2100 period, nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) loads transported to surface water decreased by more than 75%. Furthermore, the transition predominantly from forestry to pastoral farming systems increased loads by about 6%. The study results indicated that fine-resolution land use and climate data lead to better model performance. Environmental managers can also benefit greatly from the LCM-based forecast of land use changes and the SWAT model's attribution of changes in water quality to land use changes.}, }
@article {pmid38357589, year = {2024}, author = {Truong, AT and Edwards, MS and Long, JD}, title = {Season-specific impacts of climate change on canopy-forming seaweed communities.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {e10947}, pmid = {38357589}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Understory assemblages associated with canopy-forming species such as trees, kelps, and rockweeds should respond strongly to climate stressors due to strong canopy-understory interactions. Climate change can directly and indirectly modify these assemblages, particularly during more stressful seasons and climate scenarios. However, fully understanding the seasonal impacts of different climate conditions on canopy-reliant assemblages is difficult due to a continued emphasis on studying single-species responses to a single future climate scenario during a single season. To examine these emergent effects, we used mesocosm experiments to expose seaweed assemblages associated with the canopy-forming golden rockweed, Silvetia compressa, to elevated temperature and pCO2 conditions reflecting two projected greenhouse emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 [low] &amp; RCP 4.5 [moderate]). Assemblages were grown in the presence and absence of Silvetia, and in two seasons. Relative to ambient conditions, predicted climate scenarios generally suppressed Silvetia biomass and photosynthetic efficiency. However, these effects varied seasonally-both future scenarios reduced Silvetia biomass in summer, but only the moderate scenario did so in winter. These reductions shifted the assemblage, with more extreme shifts occurring in summer. Contrarily, future scenarios did not shift assemblages within Silvetia Absent treatments, suggesting that climate primarily affected assemblages indirectly through changes in Silvetia. Mesocosm experiments were coupled with a field Silvetia removal experiment to simulate the effects of climate-mediated Silvetia loss on natural assemblages. Consistent with the mesocosm experiment, Silvetia loss resulted in season-specific assemblage shifts, with weaker effects observed in winter. Together, our study supports the hypotheses that climate-mediated changes to canopy-forming species can indirectly affect the associated assemblage, and that these effects vary seasonally. Such seasonality is important to consider as it may provide periods of recovery when conditions are less stressful, especially if we can reduce the severity of future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid38357383, year = {2024}, author = {Zhu, H}, title = {Geoengineering: proactive measures to tackle climate change.}, journal = {National science review}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {nwad271}, doi = {10.1093/nsr/nwad271}, pmid = {38357383}, issn = {2053-714X}, abstract = {As of 20 August, 2023, extensive parts of northern China including the capital city of Beijing had experienced arguably the hottest summer in recent years, recording consecutive days of high temperatures at or near 40°C. Against this backdrop, National Science Review (NSR) organized a web forum on a climate-related topic that needs more exposure to Chinese public and researchers alike: geoengineering. Compared to commonly-known methods to address climate change such as emission reduction, geoengineering proposes to take much more proactive measures such as injecting aerosol into the stratosphere to increase solar reflection, implementing iron fertilization in the ocean to promote microbial growth, and capturing and liquifying CO2 and injecting it directly into exhausted oil fields. The forum was hosted by Prof. Tong Zhu of Peking University with four panelists. Together, they introduced the scientific backgrounds and implementations of these proactive measures and discussed the pros and cons anticipated by researchers so far. Fei Chai () Professor, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University Zhijun Jin () Professor, SONOPEC Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute; Dean, Institute of Energy, Peking University; Dean, Peking University Ordos Research Institute of Energy Shawchen Liu () Professor, Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University Jianhua Xu () Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Management, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering and Institute for Global Health and Development, Peking University Tong Zhu () (Chair) Professor, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University.}, }
@article {pmid38356916, year = {2024}, author = {Huber, CJ and Eichler, A and Mattea, E and Brütsch, S and Jenk, TM and Gabrieli, J and Barbante, C and Schwikowski, M}, title = {High-altitude glacier archives lost due to climate change-related melting.}, journal = {Nature geoscience}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {110-113}, pmid = {38356916}, issn = {1752-0894}, abstract = {Global warming has caused widespread surface lowering of mountain glaciers. By comparing two firn cores collected in 2018 and 2020 from Corbassière glacier in Switzerland, we demonstrate how vulnerable these precious archives of past environmental conditions have become. Within two years, the soluble impurity records were destroyed by melting. The glacier is now irrevocably lost as an archive for reconstructing major atmospheric aerosol components.}, }
@article {pmid38356539, year = {2024}, author = {Javan, K and Darestani, M}, title = {Assessing environmental sustainability of a vital crop in a critical region: Investigating climate change impacts on agriculture using the SWAT model and HWA method.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {e25326}, pmid = {38356539}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Drought is an occurrence that brings about significant changes to the structure of areas. Its influence is especially noticeable in important regions with dry and semi-dry weather patterns, leading to a range of difficulties including interruptions in food distribution systems, lack of water, health problems, economic declines, increased migration, and inadequate energy supply. The Ardabil plain, located in Asia and the northern-western region of Iran, plays a pivotal role in crop productions within an arid environment and holds significant political importance for the country. The main objective of this study is to enhance environmental sustainability in this critical and vulnerable region, particularly in anticipation of imminent droughts. The study focuses on examining the financial impacts on agriculture and selection a crop using the SWAT model, HWA method and climate scenarios under the RCP8.5 pathway for the future period (2040-2050). Results for the near future indicate a notable decline in rainfall of around 38 %, a reduction in wheat production by approximately 25 %, and an increase in temperature of around 30 %. At present, the Ardabil Plain produces a total of 284,182 tons of wheat, with 204,980 tons from irrigated crops and 79,202 tons from rain-fed crops. However, the projected future scenario indicates a decrease in total wheat production to 202,926 tons, with 153,855 tons from irrigated crops and 49,071 tons from rain-fed crops. This decline in production is expected to lead to a total net income loss of approximately -$139,372,437, with -$87,690,344 attributed to irrigated crops and -$51,682,092 to rain-fed crops. The comprehensive hierarchy of crop choices yielded by the HWA method is outlined as follows: barley holds a superior position, followed by wheat, soybeans, and potatoes. The study findings suggest that the availability of water sources in certain regions may prompt a shift in farming land from the north to the south of the plain to promote environmental sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid38356032, year = {2024}, author = {Hassaan, MA and Abdrabo, MAKA and Hussein, HA and Ghanem, AAA and Abdel-Latif, H}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on renewable energy in Egypt.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {3}, pages = {268}, pmid = {38356032}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {The need for renewable energy sources is recently necessitated by attaining sustainability and climate change mitigation. Accordingly, the use of renewable energy sources has been growing rapidly during the last two decades. Yet, the potentials of renewable energy sources are generally influenced by several climatic factors that either determine the source of energy such as wind speed in the case of wind power or affect the performance of system such as the reduction in solar PV power production due to temperature increase. This highlights the need for assessing climate change impacts on renewable energy sources in the future to ensure their reliability and sustainability.This paper is intended to assess impacts of climate change on wind and solar potential energy in Egypt by the year 2065 under RCP 8.5 scenario. For this purpose, a GIS-based methodology of three main steps was applied. The results revealed that solar energy potential in Egypt is expected to be relatively less vulnerable to climate change compared to wind energy. In this respect, it was found that while wind energy potential was estimated to range ± 12%. By the year 2065 under RCP 8.5 scenario, PV module power is expected to decrease by about 1.3% on average. Such assessment can assist in developing more sustainable and flexible renewable energy policy in Egypt.}, }
@article {pmid38355774, year = {2024}, author = {Gounaridis, D and Newell, JP}, title = {The social anatomy of climate change denial in the United States.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {2097}, pmid = {38355774}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Using data from Twitter (now X), this study deploys artificial intelligence (AI) and network analysis to map and profile climate change denialism across the United States. We estimate that 14.8% of Americans do not believe in climate change. This denialism is highest in the central and southern U.S. However, it also persists in clusters within states (e.g., California) where belief in climate change is high. Political affiliation has the strongest correlation, followed by level of education, COVID-19 vaccination rates, carbon intensity of the regional economy, and income. The analysis reveals how a coordinated social media network uses periodic events, such as cold weather and climate conferences, to sow disbelief about climate change and science, in general. Donald Trump was the strongest influencer in this network, followed by conservative media outlets and right-wing activists. As a form of knowledge vulnerability, climate denialism renders communities unprepared to take steps to increase resilience. As with other forms of misinformation, social media companies (e.g., X, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok) should flag accounts that spread falsehoods about climate change and collaborate on targeted educational campaigns.}, }
@article {pmid38355342, year = {2024}, author = {Dağlı, E and Reyhan, FA and Kırca, A&#x15e;}, title = {Midwives' views about the effects of climate change on maternal and child health: A qualitative study.}, journal = {Women and birth : journal of the Australian College of Midwives}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.wombi.2024.02.001}, pmid = {38355342}, issn = {1878-1799}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Midwives have important responsibilities to protect the health of mothers and children from the negative effects of climate change.<br><br>AIM: This research was conducted to determine how midwives perceived climate change, the effects of climate change on maternal and child health, and what midwives could do to combat these effects.<br><br>METHODS: The research was designed as a case study, one of the qualitative research designs. The research sample consisted of 11 midwives selected by snowball sampling, which is one of the non-random sampling methods.<br><br>FINDINGS: The data obtained were collected under five main themes. The themes were determined as "(I) the causes of climate change, (II) concerns about the consequences of climate change, (III) the effects of climate change on mother-child health, (IV) measures to mitigate the effects of climate change, and (V) midwives' role in protecting mother-child health against the effects of climate change."<br><br>CONCLUSION: Midwives are knowledgeable about climate change. They are aware of the effects of climate change on maternal and child health and they are doing some practices in this regard (breastfeeding, promoting the regulation of fertility and adequate/balanced nutrition, etc.). Midwives are aware of the importance of the midwifery profession in raising awareness of the individual and society, in addressing the effects of climate change on human health and in reducing the negative effects of climate change on health, and they want to take action at the national level (with the support of the midwifery organization and the state) for the sustainability of health.}, }
@article {pmid38354804, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, Y and Li, F and Zhang, J and Liu, Y and Li, H and Zhou, B and Shen, B and Hou, L and Xu, D and Ding, L and Chen, S and Liu, X and Peng, J}, title = {Spatial and temporal patterns of above- and below- ground biomass over the Tibet Plateau grasslands and their sensitivity to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170900}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170900}, pmid = {38354804}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The sensitivity of grassland above- (AGB, gC m[-2]) and below-ground biomass (BGB, gC m[-2]) to climate has been shown to be significant on the Tibetan Plateau, however, the spatial patterns and sensitivity of biomass with altitudinal change needs to be quantitated. In this study, large data sets of AGB and BGB during the peak growth season, and the corresponding geographical and climate conditions in the grasslands of the Tibetan Plateau between 2001 and 2020 were analyzed, and modelled using a Cubist regression trees algorithm. The mean values for AGB and BGB were 61.3 and 1304.3 gC m[-2], respectively, for the whole region over the two decades. There was a significant change in spatial AGB of 64.8 % on the Plateau (P < 0.05, with areas where AGB increased being twice as large as areas where AGB decreased), while BGB did not change significantly in majority the of the region (≥ 90.1 %, P > 0.05). In general, the areas where AGB showed positive partial correlations with precipitation were larger than the areas where AGB had positive correlations with temperature (P < 0.05). However, these trends varied depending on the climatic conditions: in the wetter regions, temperature had a greater effect on the size of the areas with positive AGB responses than precipitation (P < 0.05), while precipitation had a greater effect on the size of areas with positive BGB changes than temperature (P < 0.05). In the drier areas, however, precipitation affected the AGB response significantly compared to temperature (P < 0.05), while temperature influenced the BGB response greater than precipitation (P < 0.05). The response and sensitivity of grassland biomass to temperature and precipitation varied according to the altitude of the Plateau: the response and sensitivity were stronger and more sensitive at medium altitudes, and weak at the higher or lower altitudes. Likely, this phenomenon was resulted from the natural selection of plants to maintain the efficient use of resources during un-favourable and stressed conditions for maximum plant development and growth. These findings will help assess the ecological consequences of global climate change for the grasslands of the Tibetan Plateau, particularly in those regions with highly variable altitudes.}, }
@article {pmid38352020, year = {2024}, author = {Bartlett, VL and Doernberg, H and Mooghali, M and Gupta, R and Wallach, JD and Nyhan, K and Chen, K and Ross, JS}, title = {Published research on the human health implications of climate change between 2012 and 2021: cross sectional study.}, journal = {BMJ medicine}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {e000627}, pmid = {38352020}, issn = {2754-0413}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To better understand the state of research on the effects of climate change on human health, including exposures, health conditions, populations, areas of the world studied, funding sources, and publication characteristics, with a focus on topics that are relevant for populations at risk.<br><br>DESIGN: Cross sectional study.<br><br>DATA SOURCES: The National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences climate change and human health literature portal, a curated bibliographical database of global peer reviewed research and grey literature was searched. The database combines searches of multiple search engines including PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar, and includes added-value expert tagging of climate change exposures and health impacts.<br><br>ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria were peer reviewed, original research articles that investigated the health effects of climate change and were published in English from 2012 to 2021. After identification, a 10% random sample was selected to manually perform a detailed characterisation of research topics and publication information.<br><br>RESULTS: 10&#x2009;325 original research articles were published between 2012 and 2021, and the number of articles increased by 23% annually. In a random sample of 1014 articles, several gaps were found in research topics that are particularly relevant to populations at risk, such as those in the global south (134 countries established through the United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation) (n=444; 43.8%), adults aged 65 years or older (n=195; 19.2%), and on topics related to human conflict and migration (n=25; 2.5%) and food and water quality and security (n=148; 14.6%). Additionally, fewer first authors were from the global south (n=349; 34.4%), which may partly explain why research focusing on these countries is disproportionally less.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Although the body of research on the health effects of climate change has grown substantially over the past decade, including those with a focus on the global south, a disproportionate focus continues to be on countries in the global north and less at risk populations. Governments are the largest source of funding for such research, and governments, particularly in the global north, need to re-orient their climate and health research funding to support researchers in the global south and to be more inclusive of issues that are relevant to the global south.}, }
@article {pmid38351276, year = {2024}, author = {Hosseini, N and Ghorbanpour, M and Mostafavi, H}, title = {Habitat potential modelling and the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of three Thymus species in Iran using MaxEnt.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {3641}, pmid = {38351276}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Over the course of a few decades, climate change has caused a rapid and alarming reshaping of species habitats, resulting in mass extinction, particularly among sensitive species. In order to investigate the effects of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability, researchers have developed species distribution models (SDMs) that estimate present and future species distribution. In West Asia, thyme species such as T. fedtschenkoi, T. pubescens, and T. transcaucasicus are rich in thymol and carvacrol, and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents, and medicinal plants. This study aims to model the distribution of these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The objective is to identify the crucial bioclimatic (n = 5), edaphic (n = 1), and topographic (n = 3) variables that influence their distribution and predict how their distribution might change under various climate scenarios. The findings reveal that the most significant variable affecting T. fedtschenkoi and T. pubescens is altitude, while soil organic carbon content is the primary factor influencing the distribution of T. transcaucasicus. The MaxEnt modeling demonstrates excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Based on the projections, it is expected that these three thyme species will experience negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable tool for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change. Special attention should be given to conserving T. fedtschenkoi, T. pubescens, and T. transcaucasicus due to their significant habitat loss in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38349724, year = {2024}, author = {Ogden, NH and Dumas, A and Gachon, P and Rafferty, E}, title = {Estimating the Incidence and Economic Cost of Lyme Disease Cases in Canada in the 21st Century with Projected Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {132}, number = {2}, pages = {27005}, doi = {10.1289/EHP13759}, pmid = {38349724}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Lyme disease (LD) is emerging in Canada owing to the range expansion of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis (I. scapularis).<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to estimate future LD incidence in Canada, and economic costs, for the 21st century with projected climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Future regions of climatic suitability for I. scapularis were projected from temperature output of the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment regional climate model ensemble using greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Once regions became climatically suitable for ticks, an algorithm derived from tick and LD case surveillance data projected subsequent increasing LD incidence. Three scenarios (optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic) for maximum incidence at endemicity were selected based on LD surveillance, and underreporting estimates, from the United States. Health care and productivity cost estimates of LD cases were obtained from the literature.<br><br>RESULTS: Projected annual LD cases for Canada ranged from 120,000 to >500,000 by 2050. Variation in incidence was mostly due to the maximum incidence at endemicity selected, with minor contributions from variations among climate models and RCPs. Projected annual costs were substantial, ranging from CA$0.5&#x2009;billion to $2.0&#x2009;billion a year by 2050. There was little difference in projected incidence and economic cost between RCPs, and from 2050 to 2100, because projected climate up to 2050 is similar for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions captured in RCP4.5 does not impact climate before the 2050s) and by 2050 the most densely populated areas of the study region are projected to be climatically suitable for ticks.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Future incidence and economic costs of LD in Canada are likely to be substantial, but uncertainties remain. Because densely populated areas of Canada are projected to become endemic under conservative climate change scenarios, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is unlikely to provide substantial health co-benefits for LD. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13759.}, }
@article {pmid38348625, year = {2024}, author = {Briedis, M and Hahn, S and Bauer, S}, title = {Duration and variability of spring green-up mediate population consequences of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {e14380}, doi = {10.1111/ele.14380}, pmid = {38348625}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {aka 326315//Academy of Finland/ ; lzp-2019/1-0242//Latvijas Zin&#x101;tnes Padome/ ; lzp-2023/1-0233//Latvijas Zin&#x101;tnes Padome/ ; NSF 1927743//National Science Foundation/ ; SNF 31BD30_184120//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung/ ; NWO E10008//Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; BelSPO BR/185/A1/GloBAM-BE//Belgian Federal Science Policy Office/ ; }, abstract = {Single phenological measures, like the average rate of phenological advancement, may be insufficient to explain how climate change is driving trends in animal populations. Here, we develop a multifactorial concept of spring phenology-including the onset of spring, spring duration, interannual variability, and their temporal changes-as a driver for population dynamics of migratory terrestrial species in seasonal environments. Using this conceptual model, we found that effects of advancing spring phenology on animal populations may be buffered or amplified depending on the duration and interannual variability of spring green-up, and those effects are modified by evolutionary and plastic adaptations of species. Furthermore, we compared our modelling results with empirical data on normalized difference vegetation index-based spring green-up phenology and population trends of 106 European landbird finding similar associations. We conclude how phenological changes are expected to affect migratory bird populations across Europe and identify regions that are particularly prone to suffer population declines.}, }
@article {pmid38347450, year = {2024}, author = {Ndetei, DM and Wasserman, D and Mutiso, V and Shanley, JR and Musyimi, C and Nyamai, P and Munyua, T and Swahn, MH and Weisz, JR and Osborn, TL and Bhui, K and Johnson, NE and Pihkala, P and Memiah, P and Gilbert, S and Javed, A and Sourander, A}, title = {The perceived impact of climate change on mental health and suicidality in Kenyan high school students.}, journal = {BMC psychiatry}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {117}, pmid = {38347450}, issn = {1471-244X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has psychological impacts but most of the attention has been focused on the physical impact. This study was aimed at determining the association of climate change with adolescent mental health and suicidality as reported by Kenyan high school students.<br><br>METHODS: This was a cross sectional study with a sample size of 2,652. The participants were high school students selected from 10 schools in 3 regions of Kenya. A questionnaire was used to assess climate change experiences, mental health problems, and suicidality of the youth. Data were analyzed descriptively and with logistic regression to determine various associations of the different variables and the predictors of the various scores of SDQ and suicidality at 95% CI.<br><br>RESULTS: Significant differences were observed between gender and two of the threats of climate change - worry and being afraid as subjectively experienced by the participants. Females were more worried and afraid of climate change than males. On univariate and multivariate logistic regression, we found that various experiences of climate change were significantly associated with various scores of SDQ and much fewer of the experiences predicted SDQ scores. The same pattern was reflected in suicidality.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change appears to be associated with mental health concerns and suicidality according to Kenyan high school students' reports with gender differences in some associations.}, }
@article {pmid38347357, year = {2024}, author = {Zoungrana, BJ and Ouedraogo, B and Yanogo, IP}, title = {Potential impact of future climate change on grassland cover in Burkina Faso.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38347357}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {91797877//DAAD climapAfrica programme/ ; 01LG1001A//WASCAL-LANDSURF/ ; }, abstract = {The objective of this study was to analyse the potential impact of future climate change on grassland cover in Burkina Faso. MODIS NDVI 250 m time series were used to monitor changes in grassland over 2000-2022. The random forest regression (RFR) model was fit by regressing reference data of grassland cover against current climatic and other environmental predictors to predict the current grassland cover map (2022). Projected climate model data of CMIP6 used under SSP 126 and SSP 585 scenarios were integrated into the fit RFR model to predict future change. The results revealed that grassland areas were largely dominated by non-significant productivity change (55%) during 2000-2022. In this period, grassland area knew more increased productivity (35%) than decrease (10%). Burkina Faso is predicted to face more decreased areas of grassland cover than increase by 2061-2080 under SSP 126 and SSP 585 scenarios. The findings of this study can help to set up appropriate adaptation measures to combat climate change in Burkina Faso.}, }
@article {pmid38346629, year = {2024}, author = {Zaffaroni, FT and Sandoval, AE and Marti, GA and Cheli, GH}, title = {First winter record of Latrodectus mirabilis (Araneae: Theridiidae) in arid Patagonia: a consequence of climate change and urbanization?.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {107147}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107147}, pmid = {38346629}, issn = {1873-6254}, abstract = {Cases of araneism reported in the province of Chubut (Argentina) have tripled in the last two decades, and almost 80 % of them involve Latrodectus mirabilis (Holmberg) (Araneae: Theridiidae). According to descriptions of the life cycle of this species in Argentina, the low temperatures typical of autumn-winter cause the death of all adult spiders, so that no adult specimens of L. mirabilis are observed in winter. Field samplings, observations by the Grupo de Entomología Patagónica (GENTPAT, IPEEC CCT CENPAT CONICET), and citizen reports for more than 15 years suggested a similar cycle in northeastern Patagonia. However, for the last three consecutive years, we have recorded adult females in the field throughout the Patagonian winter. Some of these individuals even survived the winter and were alive the following spring. The purpose of this note is to report the field presence of adult female specimens of L. mirabilis in the outskirts of the city of Puerto Madryn (Chubut, Argentina) during the last three consecutive winters corresponding to the years 2021, 2022 and 2023; and to note that at least two of them survived the winter, arriving alive (and in good condition) the following spring. Given the medical importance of this spider, the publication of this information, the context of the findings, and their ecological implications will help to prevent its spread and reduce the likelihood of accidents.}, }
@article {pmid38343776, year = {2024}, author = {Tigano, A and Weir, T and Ward, HGM and Gale, MK and Wong, CM and Eliason, EJ and Miller, KM and Hinch, SG and Russello, MA}, title = {Genomic vulnerability of a freshwater salmonid under climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {e13602}, pmid = {38343776}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Understanding the adaptive potential of populations and species is pivotal for minimizing the loss of biodiversity in this era of rapid climate change. Adaptive potential has been estimated in various ways, including based on levels of standing genetic variation, presence of potentially beneficial alleles, and/or the severity of environmental change. Kokanee salmon, the non-migratory ecotype of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), is culturally and economically important and has already been impacted by the effects of climate change. To assess its climate vulnerability moving forward, we integrated analyses of standing genetic variation, genotype-environment associations, and climate modeling based on sequence and structural genomic variation from 224 whole genomes sampled from 22 lakes in British Columbia and Yukon (Canada). We found that variables for extreme temperatures, particularly warmer temperatures, had the most pervasive signature of selection in the genome and were the strongest predictors of levels of standing variation and of putatively adaptive genomic variation, both sequence and structural. Genomic offset estimates, a measure of climate vulnerability, were significantly correlated with higher increases in extreme warm temperatures, further highlighting the risk of summer heat waves that are predicted to increase in frequency in the future. Levels of standing genetic variation, an important metric for population viability and resilience, were not correlated with genomic offset. Nonetheless, our combined approach highlights the importance of integrating different sources of information and genomic data to formulate more comprehensive and accurate predictions on the vulnerability of populations and species to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38343590, year = {2024}, author = {Wanga, VO and Ngarega, BK and Oulo, MA and Mkala, EM and Ngumbau, VM and Onjalalaina, GE and Odago, WO and Nanjala, C and Ochieng, CO and Gichua, MK and Gituru, RW and Hu, GW}, title = {Projected impacts of climate change on the habitat of Xerophyta species in Africa.}, journal = {Plant diversity}, volume = {46}, number = {1}, pages = {91-100}, pmid = {38343590}, issn = {2468-2659}, abstract = {Climate change poses a serious long-term threat to biodiversity. To effectively reduce biodiversity loss, conservationists need to have a thorough understanding of the preferred habitats of species and the variables that affect their distribution. Therefore, predicting the impact of climate change on species-appropriate habitats may help mitigate the potential threats to biodiversity distribution. Xerophyta, a monocotyledonous genus of the family Velloziaceae is native to mainland Africa, Madagascar, and the Arabian Peninsula. The key drivers of Xerophyta habitat distribution and preference are unknown. Using 308 species occurrence data and eight environmental variables, the MaxEnt model was used to determine the potential distribution of six Xerophyta species in Africa under past, current and future climate change scenarios. The results showed that the models had a good predictive ability (Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistics values for all SDMs were more than 0.902), indicating high accuracy in forecasting the potential geographic distribution of Xerophyta species. The main bioclimatic variables that impacted potential distributions of most Xerophyta species were mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18). According to our models, tropical Africa has zones of moderate and high suitability for Xerophyta taxa, which is consistent with the majority of documented species localities. The habitat suitability of the existing range of the Xerophyta species varied based on the climate scenario, with most species experiencing a range loss greater than the range gain regardless of the climate scenario. The projected spatiotemporal patterns of Xerophyta species help guide recommendations for conservation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid38343000, year = {2024}, author = {Alibudbud, R}, title = {Climate change and equitable development in the Philippines.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdae019}, pmid = {38343000}, issn = {1741-3850}, }
@article {pmid38341970, year = {2024}, author = {Tse, H}, title = {Challenges for pumping station design in water industries: An overview of impacts from climate change and energy crisis.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {253}, number = {}, pages = {121250}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2024.121250}, pmid = {38341970}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {Uncertain climate change and increasing energy cost become the pressing challenges for either new design or refurbishment of pumping stations in water and wastewater industries. These challenges make more complex to the design work for optimal solutions in meeting current scenarios, unplanned operational behaviors and unpredicted failure. The climate change affects the water level dramatically in dry and wet seasons, stressing and weakening the operation of pumping stations beyond its original flow capability and hydraulic performance. In addition, increasing energy cost from energy crisis poses another challenge on design work for planning the suitable pump sizing, type, configuration, and technologies to make pumping stations more energy and carbon efficient without degrading its full pumping capacity. By surveying relevant pumping-related journals or guidelines after 2000, this paper provides an overview and checklist of design considerations, engineering experience and essential comparisons to mitigate impacts from climate and energy scenarios that help engineers plan and design the most common raw water and sewage pumping stations with higher sustainability and better resilient in future.}, }
@article {pmid38341269, year = {2024}, author = {Money, NP}, title = {Fungal thermotolerance revisited and why climate change is unlikely to be supercharging pathogenic fungi (yet).}, journal = {Fungal biology}, volume = {128}, number = {1}, pages = {1638-1641}, doi = {10.1016/j.funbio.2024.01.005}, pmid = {38341269}, issn = {1878-6146}, abstract = {Thermotolerance has been viewed as an uncommon characteristic among the fungi and one of the reasons that less than 1% of the described species operate as opportunistic pathogens of humans. Growth at 37°C is certainly a requirement for a fungus that invades the body core, but tens of thousands of nonpathogenic species are also able to grow at this temperature. Ergo, body temperature does not serve as a thermal barrier to the development of infections by many harmless fungi. The absence of other virulence factors must be more demanding. This observation raises questions about the hypothetical links between climate change and the increasing number of life-threatening human mycoses. Given the widespread distribution of fungal thermotolerance and the 1°C (2°F) increase in global temperature over the last 140 years it seems unlikely that the warming climate has driven the evolution of more virulent strains of fungi. More compelling explanations for the changes in the behavior of fungi as disease agents include their adaptation to the widening use of azole antifungals in hospitals and the wholesale application of millions of tons of the same class of heterocyclic chemicals in agriculture. On the other hand, climate change is having a significant effect on the spread of human mycoses by extending the geographical range of pathogenic fungi. A related increase in fungal asthma caused by spore inhalation is another likely consequence of planetary change.}, }
@article {pmid38340856, year = {2024}, author = {Cheng, W and Feng, Q and Xi, H and Yin, X and Cheng, L and Sindikubwabo, C and Zhang, B and Chen, Y and Zhao, X}, title = {Modeling and assessing the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in endorheic basins of Northwest China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170829}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170829}, pmid = {38340856}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change imposing additional stressors on groundwater resources globally, thereby predicting groundwater recharge (GR) changes is crucial to sustainably managing water resources, especially in the arid endorheic basins. Groundwater in the Endorheic Basins of Northwest China (NWEB) is potentially impacting regional socio-economic output and ecosystem stability due to the imbalance between supply and extraction exacerbated by climate change. Hence, recognizing the impacts of climate change on past and future GR is imperative for groundwater supply and sustainable groundwater management in the NWEB. Here, the impact of historical (1971-2020) and projected (2021-2100) climate changes on GR across the entire NWEB and three distinctive landscape regions (i.e., mountainous, oasis, and desert) were assessed. A coupled distributed hydrologic model (CWatM-HBV model), which integrates the Community Water Model (CWatM) and the HBV model, was run with three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0) forcing from 10 general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate and analyze the interannual and seasonal variations of GR, along with their driving factors. Over the past 50 years, both precipitation and runoff have undergone significant increases, and leading to a dramatic rise in GR (0.09 mm yr[-1]). The future annual growth rate of GR is projected to range from 0.01 to 0.09 mm yr[-1] from SSP1-2.6 to SSP3-7.0 across the entire NWEB, with the majority of the increase expected during the spring and summer seasons, driven by enhanced precipitation. GR from the mountainous region is the primary source (accounting for approximately 56-59 %) throughout the NWEB with the greatest increase anticipated. Precipitation and runoff have significant influences on GR in mountainous areas, and the impact of precipitation on GR is expected to increase over time. Changes in GR in oasis and desert areas are mainly limited by precipitation variation and increase in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenario. Additionally, the processes of glacial retreat and permafrost degradation will complicate the GR dynamics although the process is largely interfered with by anthropogenic environmental changes, especially in oasis-desert systems. The average annual recharge in the NWEB was 8.9 mm in the historical period and 13.6 ± 4.1 mm in the future. Despite an increase in GR due to climate change, groundwater storage is likely to continue to decline due to complex water demands in the NWEB. This study highlights the significance of future precipitation changes for GR and contributes to the understanding of the influence of climate change on groundwater systems and advances the sustainable management of water resources.}, }
@article {pmid38337983, year = {2024}, author = {Ramírez, CF and Cavieres, LA and Sanhueza, C and Vallejos, V and Gómez-Espinoza, O and Bravo, LA and Sáez, PL}, title = {Ecophysiology of Antarctic Vascular Plants: An Update on the Extreme Environment Resistance Mechanisms and Their Importance in Facing Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants13030449}, pmid = {38337983}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {1211231//Fondecyt/ ; RT13-16//INACH/ ; ACT210038//ANILLO/ ; FB210006//CENTRO BASAL/ ; }, abstract = {Antarctic flowering plants have become enigmatic because of their unique capability to colonize Antarctica. It has been shown that there is not a single trait that makes Colobanthus quitensis and Deschampsia antarctica so special, but rather a set of morphophysiological traits that coordinately confer resistance to one of the harshest environments on the Earth. However, both their capacity to inhabit Antarctica and their uniqueness remain not fully explained from a biological point of view. These aspects have become more relevant due to the climatic changes already impacting Antarctica. This review aims to compile and update the recent advances in the ecophysiology of Antarctic vascular plants, deepen understanding of the mechanisms behind their notable resistance to abiotic stresses, and contribute to understanding their potential responses to environmental changes. The uniqueness of Antarctic plants has prompted research that emphasizes the role of leaf anatomical traits and cell wall properties in controlling water loss and CO2 exchange, the role of Rubisco kinetics traits in facilitating efficient carbon assimilation, and the relevance of metabolomic pathways in elucidating key processes such as gas exchange, nutrient uptake, and photoprotection. Climate change is anticipated to have significant and contrasting effects on the morphophysiological processes of Antarctic species. However, more studies in different locations outside Antarctica and using the latitudinal gradient as a natural laboratory to predict the effects of climate change are needed. Finally, we raise several questions that should be addressed, both to unravel the uniqueness of Antarctic vascular species and to understand their potential responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38337932, year = {2024}, author = {Ali, S and Basit, A and Umair, M and Makanda, TA and Shaik, MR and Ibrahim, M and Ni, J}, title = {The Role of Climate Change and Its Sensitivity on Long-Term Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Vegetation and Drought Changing Trends over East Asia.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants13030399}, pmid = {38337932}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Droughts have become more severe and frequent due to global warming. In this context, it is widely accepted that for drought assessments, both water supply (rainfall) and demand (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI) should be considered. Using SPEI, we explored the spatial-temporal patterns of dry and wet annual and seasonal changes in five sub-regions of East Asia during 1902-2018. These factors are linked to excess drought frequency and severity on the regional scale, and their effect on vegetation remains an important topic for climate change studies. Our results show that the SPEI significantly improved extreme drought and mostly affected the SPEI-06 and SPEI-12 growing seasons in East Asia during 1981-2018. The dry and wet annual SPEI trends mostly affect the five sub-regions of East Asia. The annual SPEI had two extremely dry spells during 1936-1947 and 1978-2018. Japan, South Korea, and North Korea are wet in the summer compared to other regions of East Asia, with drought frequency occurring at 51.4%, respectively. The mean drought frequencies in China and Mongolia are 57.4% and 54.6%. China and Mongolia are the driest regions in East Asia due to high drought frequency and duration. The spatial seasonal analysis of solar radiation (SR), water vapor pressure (WVP), wind speed (WS), vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), and vegetation health index (VHI) have confirmed that the East Asia region suffered from maximum drought events. The seasonal variation of SPEI shows no clear drying trends during summer and autumn seasons. During the winter and spring seasons, there was a dry trend in East Asia region. During 1902-1990, a seasonal SPEI presented diverse characteristics, with clear wet trends in Japan, Mongolia, and North Korea in four different growing seasons, with dry trends in China and South Korea. During 1991-2018, seasonal SPEI presented clear dry trends in Japan, Mongolia, and North Korea in different growing seasons, while China and South Korea showed a wet trend during the spring, autumn, and winter seasons. This ecological and climatic mechanism provides a good basis for the assessment of vegetation and drought-change variations within East Asia. An understandings of long-term vegetation trends and the effects of rainfall and SPEI on droughts of varying severity is essential for water resource management and climate change adaptation. Based on the results, water resources will increase under global warming, which may alleviate the water scarcity issue in the East Asia region.}, }
@article {pmid38337453, year = {2024}, author = {De Vita, A and Belmusto, A and Di Perna, F and Tremamunno, S and De Matteis, G and Franceschi, F and Covino, M and , }, title = {The Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Conditions on Cardiovascular Health and Acute Cardiovascular Diseases.}, journal = {Journal of clinical medicine}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/jcm13030759}, pmid = {38337453}, issn = {2077-0383}, abstract = {Climate change is widely recognized as one of the most significant challenges facing our planet and human civilization. Human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, leading to a warming of the Earth's climate. The relationship between climate change and cardiovascular (CV) health, mediated by air pollution and increased ambient temperatures, is complex and very heterogeneous. The main mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of CV disease at extreme temperatures involve several regulatory pathways, including temperature-sympathetic reactivity, the cold-activated renin-angiotensin system, dehydration, extreme temperature-induced electrolyte imbalances, and heat stroke-induced systemic inflammatory responses. The interplay of these mechanisms may vary based on individual factors, environmental conditions, and an overall health background. The net outcome is a significant increase in CV mortality and a higher incidence of hypertension, type II diabetes mellitus, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, and cardiac arrhythmias. Patients with pre-existing CV disorders may be more vulnerable to the effects of global warming and extreme temperatures. There is an urgent need for a comprehensive intervention that spans from the individual level to a systemic or global approach to effectively address this existential problem. Future programs aimed at reducing CV and environmental burdens should require cross-disciplinary collaboration involving physicians, researchers, public health workers, political scientists, legislators, and national leaders to mitigate the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38336703, year = {2024}, author = {Litke, NA and Poß-Doering, R and Fehrer, V and Köppen, M and Kümmel, S and Szecsenyi, J and Wensing, M}, title = {Building climate resilience: awareness of climate change adaptation in German outpatient medical practices.}, journal = {BMC health services research}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {184}, pmid = {38336703}, issn = {1472-6963}, support = {01VSF20029//Innovation Fund of the Federal Joint Committee (G-BA)/ ; 01VSF20029//Innovation Fund of the Federal Joint Committee (G-BA)/ ; 01VSF20029//Innovation Fund of the Federal Joint Committee (G-BA)/ ; 01VSF20029//Innovation Fund of the Federal Joint Committee (G-BA)/ ; 01VSF20029//Innovation Fund of the Federal Joint Committee (G-BA)/ ; 01VSF20029//Innovation Fund of the Federal Joint Committee (G-BA)/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is seen as the biggest health threat of the twenty-first century. Making outpatient medical practices resilient is therefore crucial to protect vulnerable groups and maintain quality of care. Awareness is a precondition for action. This study aims to explore awareness (knowledge, experience and attention) of climate change adaptation among stakeholders of outpatient medical practices.<br><br>METHODS: Semi-structured interviews and focus groups with stakeholders of outpatient medical practices were conducted. The qualitative data were analysed in a two-step Thematic Analysis process.<br><br>RESULTS: In total, n&#x2009;=&#x2009;40 stakeholders participated in two focus groups and 26 interviews. The findings show a mixed degree of awareness in outpatient medical practices. The spectrum ranged from a passive role with curative acting only, handing over responsibility to others and a low perceived self-efficacy to a proactive and responsible implementation of adaptation strategies. Participants who saw the need and responsibility of climate change adaptation in medical practices perceived low additional workload. In general, implementation of climate change adaptation measures and general awareness of climate change adaptation appeared to be depending on a certain tension for change and a higher self-efficacy.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Medical practices, and specifically primary care, plays a crucial role in climate change adaptation, and awareness needs to be increased further in order to cope with consequences of climate change. To facilitate this, there should be a strong emphasis on climate change adaptation strategies being part of outpatient care provider roles rather than being perceived as an "add-on" to already high workloads.}, }
@article {pmid38335601, year = {2024}, author = {Alam, A and Banna, H and Alam, AW and Bhuiyan, MBU and Mokhtar, NB}, title = {Climate change and geopolitical conflicts: The role of ESG readiness.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {353}, number = {}, pages = {120284}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120284}, pmid = {38335601}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This study examines the relationship between climate change vulnerability and geopolitical risk using data on 42 countries from 1995 to 2021. Utilising two distinct indices, the climate vulnerability index (CVI) and the country-specific geopolitical risk (CGPR) indices, we find that countries with high vulnerability to climate change are more likely to experience geopolitical conflicts. Further analysis reveals that country-level overall economic, social, and governance (ESG) readiness significantly mitigates this detrimental effect. This moderation is mainly attributed to the social and governance readiness measures. Additional tests indicate that the mitigating role of ESG is more pronounced for countries with high institutional governance. These results remain resilient through a set of endogeneity tests using matched samples of countries generated through propensity score matching (PSM) estimation. Our findings suggest that addressing climate vulnerability is crucial to promoting global peace and geopolitical stability.}, }
@article {pmid38335594, year = {2024}, author = {Garcia, X and Estrada, L and Saló, J and Acuña, V}, title = {Blueing green water from forests as strategy to cope with climate change in water scarce regions: The case of the Catalan river basin District.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {353}, number = {}, pages = {120249}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120249}, pmid = {38335594}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Water scarcity in Mediterranean basins is a critical concern exacerbated by climate change and afforestation of abandoned lands. This study addresses the impact of forest management on water availability, specifically blue water, at a regional scale. Utilizing the SWAT + model, we assess water yield increases resulting from various forest thinning scenarios (light, moderate, heavy) and compare benefits to costs. Our approach incorporates site-specific marginal values of water yield, accounting for urban water supply abstractions. The findings reveal the efficacy of hydrological-oriented forest management in alleviating water scarcity. Thinning intensity positively correlates with water yield, with coniferous forests exhibiting the greatest response and deciduous forests the least. Emphasizing blue water enhancement as a significant co-benefit in forest management planning, our study underscores the economic advantages. Particularly valuable in certain areas, this approach can offset a substantial portion of associated costs. Spatially explicit results enable optimal resource allocation, facilitating efficient planning and prioritization of intervention areas for successful hydrological-oriented strategies. In conclusion, our study not only highlights the economic benefits of forest management in enhancing water availability but also offers actionable insights for sustainable and effective hydrological-oriented planning amid escalating water scarcity.}, }
@article {pmid38334016, year = {2024}, author = {Hosseini, N and Mostafavi, H and Sadeghi, SMM}, title = {Impact of climate change on the future distribution of three Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4898}, pmid = {38334016}, issn = {1551-3793}, abstract = {The decline of habitats supporting medicinal plants is a consequence of climate change and human activities. In the Middle East, Ferulago angulata, Ferulago carduchorum, and Ferulago phialocarpa are widely recognized for their culinary, medicinal, and economic value. Therefore, this study models these Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050 and 2070. The objective was to identify the most important bioclimatic (n = 6), edaphic (n = 4), and topographic (n = 3) variables influencing their distribution and predict changes under various climate scenarios. Findings reveal slope percentage as the most significant variable for F. angulata and F. carduchorum, while solar radiation was the primary variable for F. phialocarpa. MaxEnt modeling demonstrated good to excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve values exceeding 0.85. Projections suggest negative area changes for F. angulata and F. carduchorum (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 indicate -34.0% and -37.8% for F. phialocarpa, and -0.3% and -6.2% for F. carduchorum; additionally, predictions under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 show -39.0% and -52.2% for F. phialocarpa, and -1.33% and -9.8% for F. carduchorum), while for F. phialocarpa, a potential habitat increase (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 23.4% and 11.2%, and under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 64.4% and 42.1%) is anticipated. These insights guide adaptive management strategies, emphasizing conservation and sustainable use amid global climate change. Special attention should be paid to F. angulata and F. carduchorum due to anticipated habitat loss. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-14. © 2024 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid38332537, year = {2024}, author = {Gallegos, C and Hodgins, KA and Monro, K}, title = {Temperature and sex shape reproductive barriers in a climate change hotspot.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/evolut/qpae012}, pmid = {38332537}, issn = {1558-5646}, abstract = {Climate change is altering species ranges and reproductive interactions in existing ranges, offering species new scope to mate and hybridize. The outcomes will depend on how environmental factors shape reproductive barriers across life stages, yet this is rarely assessed across the environments that species encounter in nature. We assess prezygotic and postzygotic barriers, and their dependence on temperature and parental sex, in species of a reef-building tubeworm (Galeolaria) from a fast-warming biodiversity hotspot in southern Australia. By replicating pure and reciprocal hybrid crosses across five temperatures spanning species' thermal ranges, we estimate thermal tolerance curves (defining niches) for crosses and reproductive isolation at each temperature. By also replicating crosses at three life stages, we partition the contributions of prezygotic barriers at fertilization, postzygotic barriers at embryogenesis, and postzygotic barriers at larval development to reproductive isolation. We show that barriers are weaker at fertilization and embryogenesis, but stronger and more temperature-sensitive at larval development, as species diverge in thermal niche. Asymmetry of barriers between parental sexes, moreover, suggests a complex interplay between niche differentiation and maternal inheritance. Our findings point to a key role for temperature in reproductive isolation, but also challenges for predicting the fate of isolation in future climates.}, }
@article {pmid38331945, year = {2024}, author = {Erazo, D and Grant, L and Ghisbain, G and Marini, G and Colón-González, FJ and Wint, W and Rizzoli, A and Van Bortel, W and Vogels, CBF and Grubaugh, ND and Mengel, M and Frieler, K and Thiery, W and Dellicour, S}, title = {Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {1196}, pmid = {38331945}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {UL1 TR001863/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes. To this end, we trained ecological niche models to predict the risk of local WNV circulation leading to human cases to then unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual based on the same environmental changes but a counterfactual climate where long-term trends have been removed. Our findings demonstrate a notable increase in the area ecologically suitable for WNV circulation during the period 1901-2019, whereas this area remains largely unchanged in a no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that the drastic increase in the human population at risk of exposure is partly due to historical changes in population density, but that climate change has also been a critical driver behind the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid38331534, year = {2024}, author = {Madaniyazi, L and Armstrong, B and Tobias, A and Mistry, MN and Bell, ML and Urban, A and Kyselý, J and Ryti, N and Cvijanovic, I and Ng, CFS and Roye, D and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Tong, S and Lavigne, E and Íñiguez, C and da Silva, SDNP and Madureira, J and Jaakkola, JJK and Sera, F and Honda, Y and Gasparrini, A and Hashizume, M and , }, title = {Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {e86-e94}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00269-3}, pmid = {38331534}, issn = {2542-5196}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones.<br><br>METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones.<br><br>FINDINGS: The MCC dataset included 126&#x2008;809&#x2008;537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126&#x2008;766&#x2008;164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0&#xb7;96 to 1&#xb7;11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0&#xb7;002% to 0&#xb7;06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates.<br><br>FUNDING: The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, provided by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.}, }
@article {pmid38331295, year = {2024}, author = {Mehdi-Schulz, B and Zoboli, O and Schürz, C and Strenge, E and Lima, EM and Parajka, J and Wang, C and Zessner, M and Schönhart, M}, title = {The impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses to the environment in Austria: A dual model analysis across spatial and temporal scales to support policy decisions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170730}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170730}, pmid = {38331295}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The amounts and pathways of reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses in Austria into the surface water, soil, and atmosphere were determined under four climate change scenarios for the period 2041-2070. Two nutrient models were used to undertake the analysis at two different scales. Firstly, a semi-empirical, conceptual model (MONERIS) was setup for Austria to calculate the overall annual Nr surpluses, categorise flows of Nr, and identify regional hotspots of Nr losses. Secondly, a physically based eco-hydrological model (SWAT) was setup in three agricultural catchments to determine the hydrological processes related to Nr transport and quantify the amounts transported by various pathways in cropland at a detailed spatial and temporal resolution. The agricultural N surplus calculations for Austria were revised and used as input data for both models. The MONERIS and SWAT simulated inorganic N loads transported into waterbodies are overall similar, with average differences for the subsurface inorganic N loads of ±3 kg ha[-1] yr[-1] and for surface inorganic N loads of +0.4 to -0.03 kg ha[-1] yr[-1]. Crop level N losses under future climate scenarios was contingent upon the fertilizer type, the crop grown and its accumulated biomass, as well as the type of climate scenario (wet or dry). In the SWAT model, an examination of the sensitivity of the input data (climate data and parameter values) found the dominant contribution to the sensitivity of simulated monthly discharge was from the climate data (69 % to 98 %). For simulating N loads, the climate scenarios contributed 30 % to 89 % of the sensitivity. Simulating Nr flows under climate scenarios is policy relevant to assess critical areas of N losses and identify future N transport pathways. Using a dual-model approach saves on resources required to set up a complex, data intensive model at a large scale, and can focus on critical catchments in detail.}, }
@article {pmid38327685, year = {2024}, author = {Lamouille-Hébert, M and Arthaud, F and Datry, T}, title = {Climate change and the biodiversity of alpine ponds: Challenges and perspectives.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {e10883}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.10883}, pmid = {38327685}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Inland waters are among the most threatened biodiversity hotspots. Ponds located in alpine areas are experiencing more rapid and dramatic water temperature increases than any other biome. Despite their prevalence, alpine ponds and their biodiversity responses to climate change have been poorly explored, reflecting their small size and difficult access. To understand the effects of climate change on alpine pond biodiversity, we performed a comprehensive literature review for papers published since 1955. Through analysis of their geographic distribution, environmental features, and biodiversity values, we identified which environmental factors related to climate change would have direct or indirect effects on alpine pond biodiversity. We then synthesized this information to produce a conceptual model of the effects of climate change on alpine pond biodiversity. Increased water temperature, reduced hydroperiod, and loss of connectivity between alpine ponds were the main drivers of biodiversity geographic distribution, leading to predictable changes in spatial patterns of biodiversity. We identified three major research gaps that, if addressed, can guide conservation and restoration strategies for alpine ponds biodiversity in an uncertain future.}, }
@article {pmid38327370, year = {2023}, author = {Lamelas-Lopez, L and Gabriel, R and Ros-Prieto, A and Borges, PAV}, title = {SLAM Project - Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the natural forest of Azores: VI - Inventory of Arthropods of Azorean Urban Gardens.}, journal = {Biodiversity data journal}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e98286}, doi = {10.3897/BDJ.11.e98286}, pmid = {38327370}, issn = {1314-2828}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The data we present are part of the long-term project SLAM (Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the natural forest of Azores) aiming to assess the impact of biodiversity erosion drivers on Azorean native biota, using long-term ecological data. Additionally to SLAM (Sea, Land and Air Malaise) traps, nocturnal Active Aerial Searching and nocturnal Foliage Beating methods were used to sample, between 2017 and 2018, the arthropod biodiversity on two historical urban gardens of Azores, the "Jardim Botânico" of Faial Island and "Jardim Duque da Terceira" of Terceira Island.<br><br>NEW INFORMATION: We provided an inventory of arthropods collected between 2017 and 2018 in two urban gardens of Faial and Terceira Islands (Azores). A total of 8342 specimens were collected, in which 7493 specimens were identified to species/subspecies level (Faial n = 3296; Terceira n = 4197). The identified specimens belong to four classes, 15 orders, 80 families and 159 species and subspecies of arthropods. A total of 84 species and subspecies are considered introduced (n = 2454 specimens), 50 native non-endemic (n = 4444 specimens), eight endemic (n = 217) and 17 have an indeterminate origin (n = 378). This study also revises the arthropod inventory of these Azorean gardens, by adding/updating the taxonomic names of three orders, ten families and 22 species.}, }
@article {pmid38327350, year = {2023}, author = {Wallon, S and Melo, C and Tsafack, N and Elias, RB and Borges, PAV}, title = {Assessing the effects of climate change on arthropod abundance in Azorean pastures: PASTURCLIM project's baseline monitoring data.}, journal = {Biodiversity data journal}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e103723}, doi = {10.3897/BDJ.11.e103723}, pmid = {38327350}, issn = {1314-2828}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The data we present are part of the project PASTURCLIM (Impact of climate change on pasture's productivity and nutritional composition in the Azores). The project aims to assess the consequences of climate change (e.g. temperature increase) on the grass production and its quality for forage, as well as to assess changes in the arthropod communities associated with the Azorean intensive pastures. An in situ experiment was set up using Open Top Chambers (OTCs), in order to simulate an increasing of temperature (average of +1.2ºC) on pastures. In this contribution, we present the data relative to the arthropod sampling.<br><br>NEW INFORMATION: We provide an inventory of all arthropods recorded inside OTCs and in control plots in three intensively managed pastures dominated by grasses in Terceira Island (Azores): two of them dominated by ryegrass, Loliummultiflorum Lam. (Poaceae), located respectively at 186 m and 301 m above sea level; and one field dominated by common velvetgrass, Holcuslanatus L. (Poaceae), located at an altitude of 385 m.A total of 41351 specimens were collected. Organisms collected belong to four classes, 15 orders, 60 families and 171 species/morphospecies (including 34 taxa identified only at order, family or genus level). Therefore, for only 137 taxa, we have a scientific name associated (n = 38918). A total of 75% of the species (n = 129 species) are considered introduced (including all the species with indeterminate colonisation status that are possibly also exotic species (n = 7622)), representing 71% of the total abundance (n = 29664 specimens). A total of 19% of the species (n = 33 species) are considered native non-endemic representing 28% of the total abundance (n = 11608 specimens). Only one endemic species was sampled, the wolf spider Pardosaacorensis Simon, 1883 (1% of the species), representing 0.2% of the total abundance (n = 79 specimens). Spiders (5056 specimens) and beetles (18310 specimens) were the dominant taxa representing, respectively, 20 and 78 morphospecies.Since the main aim of this study was to have a better knowledge on arthropod communities present in Azorean pastures under a simulated temperature increase, the principal novelty of this paper is the contribution with distribution and abundance data to a baseline knowledge on the future consequences of climate changes on arthropod communities in Azorean pastures.}, }
@article {pmid38326687, year = {2024}, author = {Jin, Z and Zhao, H and Xian, X and Li, M and Qi, Y and Guo, J and Yang, N and Lü, Z and Liu, W}, title = {Correction to: Early warning and management of invasive crop pests under global warming: estimating the global geographical distribution patterns and ecological niche overlap of three Diabrotica beetles.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-024-32349-3}, pmid = {38326687}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid38325513, year = {2024}, author = {Morshed, SR and Fattah, MA and Kafy, AA and Alsulamy, S and Almulhim, AI and Shohan, AAA and Khedher, KM}, title = {Decoding seasonal variability of air pollutants with climate factors: A Geostatistical approach using multimodal regression models for informed climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {123463}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2024.123463}, pmid = {38325513}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {In response to changes in climatic patterns, a profound comprehension of air pollutants (AP) variability is vital for enhancing climate models and facilitating informed decision-making in nations susceptible to climate change. Earlier research primarily depended on limited models, potentially neglecting intricate relationships and not fully encapsulating associations. This study, in contrast, probed the spatiotemporal variability of airborne particles (CO, CH4, SO2, and NO2) under varying climatic conditions within a climate-sensitive nation, utilizing multiple regression models. Spatial and seasonal AP data were acquired via the Google Earth Engine platform, which indicated elevated AP concentrations in primarily urban areas. Remarkably, the average airborne particle levels were lower in 2020 than in 2019, though they escalated during winter. The study employed linear regression, Pearson's correlation (PC), Spearman rank correlation models, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models to probe the relationship between pollutant variability and climatic elements such as rainfall, temperature, and humidity. Across all seasons, APs showed a negative correlation with rainfall while displaying positive correlations with temperature and humidity. The GWR and PC models produced the most reliable results from all the models employed, with the GWR model superseding the rest. Moreover, heightened aerosol levels were detected within a rainfall range of 600 mm/season, a temperature range of 25-30 °C, and humidity levels of 75 %-85 %. Overall, this study emphasizes the growing levels of APs in correlation with meteorological changes. By adopting a comprehensive approach and considering multiple factors, this research provides a more sophisticated understanding of the relationship between AP variability and climatic shifts.}, }
@article {pmid38324680, year = {2024}, author = {Vlasceanu, M and Doell, KC and Bak-Coleman, JB and Todorova, B and Berkebile-Weinberg, MM and Grayson, SJ and Patel, Y and Goldwert, D and Pei, Y and Chakroff, A and Pronizius, E and van den Broek, KL and Vlasceanu, D and Constantino, S and Morais, MJ and Schumann, P and Rathje, S and Fang, K and Aglioti, SM and Alfano, M and Alvarado-Yepez, AJ and Andersen, A and Anseel, F and Apps, MAJ and Asadli, C and Awuor, FJ and Azevedo, F and Basaglia, P and Bélanger, JJ and Berger, S and Bertin, P and Białek, M and Bialobrzeska, O and Blaya-Burgo, M and Bleize, DNM and Bø, S and Boecker, L and Boggio, PS and Borau, S and Bos, B and Bouguettaya, A and Brauer, M and Brick, C and Brik, T and Briker, R and Brosch, T and Buchel, O and Buonauro, D and Butalia, R and Carvacho, H and Chamberlain, SAE and Chan, HY and Chow, D and Chung, D and Cian, L and Cohen-Eick, N and Contreras-Huerta, LS and Contu, D and Cristea, V and Cutler, J and D'Ottone, S and De Keersmaecker, J and Delcourt, S and Delouvée, S and Diel, K and Douglas, BD and Drupp, MA and Dubey, S and Ekmanis, J and Elbaek, CT and Elsherif, M and Engelhard, IM and Escher, YA and Etienne, TW and Farage, L and Farias, AR and Feuerriegel, S and Findor, A and Freira, L and Friese, M and Gains, NP and Gallyamova, A and Geiger, SJ and Genschow, O and Gjoneska, B and Gkinopoulos, T and Goldberg, B and Goldenberg, A and Gradidge, S and Grassini, S and Gray, K and Grelle, S and Griffin, SM and Grigoryan, L and Grigoryan, A and Grigoryev, D and Gruber, J and Guilaran, J and Hadar, B and Hahnel, UJJ and Halperin, E and Harvey, AJ and Haugestad, CAP and Herman, AM and Hershfield, HE and Himichi, T and Hine, DW and Hofmann, W and Howe, L and Huaman-Chulluncuy, ET and Huang, G and Ishii, T and Ito, A and Jia, F and Jost, JT and Jovanović, V and Jurgiel, D and Kácha, O and Kankaanpää, R and Kantorowicz, J and Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, E and Kaplan Mintz, K and Kaya, I and Kaya, O and Khachatryan, N and Klas, A and Klein, C and Klöckner, CA and Koppel, L and Kosachenko, AI and Kothe, EJ and Krebs, R and Krosch, AR and Krouwel, APM and Kyrychenko, Y and Lagomarsino, M and Lamm, C and Lange, F and Lee Cunningham, J and Lees, J and Leung, TY and Levy, N and Lockwood, PL and Longoni, C and López Ortega, A and Loschelder, DD and Lu, JG and Luo, Y and Luomba, J and Lutz, AE and Majer, JM and Markowitz, E and Marsh, AA and Mascarenhas, KL and Mbilingi, B and Mbungu, W and McHugh, C and Meijers, MHC and Mercier, H and Mhagama, FL and Michalakis, K and Mikus, N and Milliron, S and Mitkidis, P and Monge-Rodríguez, FS and Mora, YL and Moreau, D and Motoki, K and Moyano, M and Mus, M and Navajas, J and Nguyen, TL and Nguyen, DM and Nguyen, T and Niemi, L and Nijssen, SRR and Nilsonne, G and Nitschke, JP and Nockur, L and Okura, R and Öner, S and Özdoğru, AA and Palumbo, H and Panagopoulos, C and Panasiti, MS and Pärnamets, P and Paruzel-Czachura, M and Pavlov, YG and Payán-Gómez, C and Pearson, AR and Pereira da Costa, L and Petrowsky, HM and Pfattheicher, S and Pham, NT and Ponizovskiy, V and Pretus, C and Rêgo, GG and Reimann, R and Rhoads, SA and Riano-Moreno, J and Richter, I and Röer, JP and Rosa-Sullivan, J and Ross, RM and Sabherwal, A and Saito, T and Sarrasin, O and Say, N and Schmid, K and Schmitt, MT and Schoenegger, P and Scholz, C and Schug, MG and Schulreich, S and Shreedhar, G and Shuman, E and Sivan, S and Sjåstad, H and Soliman, M and Soud, K and Spampatti, T and Sparkman, G and Spasovski, O and Stanley, SK and Stern, JA and Strahm, N and Suko, Y and Sul, S and Syropoulos, S and Taylor, NC and Tedaldi, E and Tinghög, G and Huynh, LDT and Travaglino, GA and Tsakiris, M and Tüter, &#x130; and Tyrala, M and Uluğ, &#xd6;M and Urbanek, A and Valko, D and van der Linden, S and van Schie, K and van Stekelenburg, A and Vanags, E and Västfjäll, D and Vesely, S and Vintr, J and Vranka, M and Wanguche, PO and Willer, R and Wojcik, AD and Xu, R and Yadav, A and Zawisza, M and Zhao, X and Zhao, J and Żuk, D and Van Bavel, JJ}, title = {Addressing climate change with behavioral science: A global intervention tournament in 63 countries.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {eadj5778}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.adj5778}, pmid = {38324680}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Effectively reducing climate change requires marked, global behavior change. However, it is unclear which strategies are most likely to motivate people to change their climate beliefs and behaviors. Here, we tested 11 expert-crowdsourced interventions on four climate mitigation outcomes: beliefs, policy support, information sharing intention, and an effortful tree-planting behavioral task. Across 59,440 participants from 63 countries, the interventions' effectiveness was small, largely limited to nonclimate skeptics, and differed across outcomes: Beliefs were strengthened mostly by decreasing psychological distance (by 2.3%), policy support by writing a letter to a future-generation member (2.6%), information sharing by negative emotion induction (12.1%), and no intervention increased the more effortful behavior-several interventions even reduced tree planting. Last, the effects of each intervention differed depending on people's initial climate beliefs. These findings suggest that the impact of behavioral climate interventions varies across audiences and target behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid38323730, year = {2024}, author = {Remple, H and Kalogirou, MR and Dahlke, S and Hunter, KF}, title = {Understanding nurses' experience of climate change and then climate action in Western Canada.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jan.16094}, pmid = {38323730}, issn = {1365-2648}, support = {//City of Vernon/ ; }, abstract = {AIM: To understand nurses' personal and professional experiences with the heat dome, drought and forest fires of 2021 and how those events impacted their perspectives on climate action.<br><br>DESIGN: A naturalistic inquiry using qualitative description.<br><br>METHOD: Twelve nurses from the interior of British Columbia, Canada, were interviewed using a semi-structured interview guide. Thematic analysis was employed. No patient or public involvement.<br><br>RESULTS: Data analysis yielded three themes to describe nurses' perspective on climate change: health impacts; climate action and system influences. These experiences contributed to nurses' beliefs about climate change, how to take climate action in their personal lives and their challenges enacting climate action in their workplace settings.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Nurses' challenges with enacting environmentally responsible practices in their workplace highlight the need for engagement throughout institutions in supporting environmentally friendly initiatives.<br><br>IMPACT: The importance of system-level changes in healthcare institutions for planetary health.}, }
@article {pmid38322902, year = {2024}, author = {Maar, M and Larsen, J and Butenschön, M and Kristiansen, T and Thodsen, H and Taylor, D and Schourup-Kristensen, V}, title = {Impacts of climate change on water quality, benthic mussels, and suspended mussel culture in a shallow, eutrophic estuary.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {e25218}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e25218}, pmid = {38322902}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change is a global problem that causes severe local changes to marine biota, ecosystem functioning, and ecosystem services. The Limfjorden is a shallow, eutrophic estuary influenced by episodic summer hypoxia with an important mussel fishery and suspended mussel culture industry. Three future climate change scenarios ranging from low greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1-2.6), to intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high emissions (SSP5-8.5) were combined with nutrient load reductions according to the National Water Plans to investigate potential impacts on natural benthic mussel populations and suspended mussel culture for the two periods 2051-2060 and 2090-2099, relative to a reference period from 2009 to 2018. The FlexSem model combined 3D hydrodynamics with a pelagic biogeochemical model, a sediment-benthos model, and a dynamic energy budget - farm scale model for mussel culture. Model results showed that the Limfjorden was sensitive to climate change impacts with the strongest responses of physics and water quality in the worst case SSP5-8.5 scenario with no nutrient reductions. In the two low emissions scenarios, expected improvements of bottom oxygen and Chlorophyll a concentrations due to reduced nutrient loads were counteracted by climate change impacts on water physics (warming, freshening, stronger stratification). Hence, higher nutrient reductions in the Water Plans would be needed to reach a good ecological status under the influence of climate change. Suspended mussel culture was intensified in all scenarios showing a high potential harvest, whereas the benthic mussels suffered from reduced food supply and hypoxia. Provided the environmental changes and trends in social demands, in the future, it is likely that suspended mussel cultivation will become the primary source of mussels for the industry. Model scenarios can be used to inform managers, mussel farmers, fishermen, and the local population on potential future changes in bivalve harvesting and ecosystem health, and to find solutions to mitigate climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid38322857, year = {2024}, author = {Astuti, PK and Ayoob, A and Strausz, P and Vakayil, B and Kumar, SH and Kusza, S}, title = {Climate change and dairy farming sustainability; a causal loop paradox and its mitigation scenario.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {e25200}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e25200}, pmid = {38322857}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {It is arguable at this time whether climate change is a cause or effect of the disruption in dairy farming. Climate change drastically affects the productive performance of livestock, including milk and meat production, and this could be attributed to the deviation of energy resources towards adaptive mechanisms. However, livestock farming also contributes substantially to the existing greenhouse gas pool, which is the causal of the climate change. We gathered relevant information from the recent publication and reviewed it to elaborate on sustainable dairy farming management in a changing climatic scenario, and efforts are needed to gather this material to develop methods that could help to overcome the adversities associated with livestock industries. We summarize the intervention points to reverse these adversities, such as application of genetic technology, nutrition intervention, utilization of chemical inhibitors, immunization, and application of metagenomics, which may help to sustain farm animal production in the changing climate scenario.}, }
@article {pmid38322823, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, Y and Palta, JA}, title = {Editorial: Root structure and function adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1365263}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2024.1365263}, pmid = {38322823}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid38321694, year = {2023}, author = {Chang, M and Li, M and Xu, W and Li, X and Liu, J and Stoks, R and Zhang, C}, title = {Microplastics increases the heat tolerance of Daphnia magna under global warming via hormetic effects.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {249}, number = {}, pages = {114416}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2022.114416}, pmid = {38321694}, issn = {1090-2414}, abstract = {The ecological risk assessment of microplastics under global warming receives increasing attention. Yet, such studies mostly focused on increased mean temperatures (MT), ignoring another key component of global warming, namely daily temperature fluctuations (DTF). Moreover, we know next to nothing about the combined effects of multigenerational exposure to microplastics and warming. In this study, Daphnia magna was exposed to an environmentally relevant concentration of polystyrene microplastics (5 μg L[-1]) under six thermal conditions (MT: 20 ℃, 24 ℃; DTF: 0 ℃, 5 ℃, 10 ℃) over two generations to investigate the interactive effects of microplastics and global warming. Results showed that microplastics had no effects on Daphnia at standard thermal conditions (constant 20 °C). Yet, microplastics increased the fecundity, heat tolerance, amount of energy storage, net energy budget and cytochrome P450 activity, and decreased the energy consumption when tested under an increased MT or DTF, indicating a hormesis effect induced by microplastics under warming. The unexpected increase in heat tolerance upon exposure to microplastics could be partly explained by the reduced energy consumption and/or increased energy availability. Overall, the present study highlighted the importance of including DTF and multigenerational exposure to improve the ecological risk assessment of microplastics under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid38320700, year = {2024}, author = {Nilsson, J and Ernfors, M and Prade, T and Hansson, PA}, title = {Cover crop cultivation strategies in a Scandinavian context for climate change mitigation and biogas production - Insights from a life cycle perspective.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170629}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170629}, pmid = {38320700}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Cover crop cultivation can be a vital strategy for mitigating climate change in agriculture, by increasing soil carbon stocks and resource efficiency within the cropping system. Another mitigation option is to harvest the cover crop and use the biomass to replace greenhouse gas-intensive products, such as fossil fuels. Harvesting cover crop biomass could also reduce the risk of elevated N2O emissions associated with cover crop cultivation under certain conditions, which would offset much of the mitigation potential. However, harvesting cover crops also reduces soil carbon sequestration potential, as biomass is removed from the field, and cultivation of cover crops requires additional field operations that generate greenhouse gas emissions. To explore these synergies and trade-offs, this study investigated the life cycle climate effect of cultivating an oilseed radish cover crop under different management strategies in southern Scandinavia. Three alternative scenarios (Incorporation of biomass into soil; Mowing and harvesting aboveground biomass; Uprooting and harvesting above- and belowground biomass) were compared with a reference scenario with no cover crop. Harvested biomass in the Mowing and Uprooting scenarios was assumed to be transported to a biogas plant for conversion to upgraded biogas, with the digestate returned to the field as an organic fertiliser for the subsequent crop. The climate change mitigation potential of cover crop cultivation was found to be 0.056, 0.58 and 0.93 Mg CO2-eq ha[-1] in the Incorporation, Mowing and Uprooting scenario, respectively. The Incorporation scenario resulted in the highest soil carbon sequestration, but also the greatest soil N2O emissions. Substitution of fossil diesel showed considerable mitigation potential, especially in the Uprooting scenario, where biogas production was highest. Sensitivity analysis revealed a strong impact of time of cover crop establishment, with earlier establishment leading to greater biomass production and thus greater mitigation potential.}, }
@article {pmid38320578, year = {2024}, author = {Papies, EK and Nielsen, KS and Soares, VA}, title = {Health psychology and climate change: time to address humanity's most existential crisis.}, journal = {Health psychology review}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-31}, doi = {10.1080/17437199.2024.2309242}, pmid = {38320578}, issn = {1743-7202}, abstract = {Climate change is an ongoing and escalating health emergency. It threatens the health and wellbeing of billions of people, through extreme weather events, displacement, food insecurity, pathogenic diseases, societal destabilisation, and armed conflict. Climate change dwarfs all other challenges studied by health psychologists. The greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change disproportionately originate from the actions of wealthy populations in the Global North and are tied to excessive energy use and overconsumption driven by the pursuit of economic growth. Addressing this crisis requires significant societal transformations and individual behaviour change. Most of these changes will benefit not only the stability of the climate but will yield significant public health co-benefits. Because of their unique expertise and skills, health psychologists are urgently needed in crafting climate change mitigation responses. We propose specific ways in which health psychologists at all career stages can contribute, within the spheres of research, teaching, and policy making, and within organisations and as private citizens. As health psychologists, we cannot sit back and leave climate change to climate scientists. Climate change is a health emergency that results from human behaviour; hence it is in our power and responsibility to address it.}, }
@article {pmid38320018, year = {2023}, author = {Takvorian, KS and Hardin, CC and Muller, D and Ling, E and Vining, T and Normand, SL and Sacks, CA}, title = {Of Climate Change and Competing Risks.}, journal = {NEJM evidence}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {EVIDstat2200319}, doi = {10.1056/EVIDstat2200319}, pmid = {38320018}, issn = {2766-5526}, abstract = {Of Climate Change and Competing Risks This Stats, STAT! animated video explores the concept of competing risks - and discusses why it is so important for investigators to consider whether the occurrence of one event can prevent or change the likelihood of the occurrence of another.}, }
@article {pmid38319880, year = {2022}, author = {Ebi, KL}, title = {Methods for Quantifying, Projecting, and Managing the Health Risks of Climate Change.}, journal = {NEJM evidence}, volume = {1}, number = {8}, pages = {EVIDra2200002}, doi = {10.1056/EVIDra2200002}, pmid = {38319880}, issn = {2766-5526}, abstract = {Quantifying Health Risks of Climate ChangeA rapidly increasing literature base is quantifying associations between climate change and health outcomes. Here, Ebi reviews methods for quantifying, projecting, and managing the health risks of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38319263, year = {2022}, author = {Solomon, CG and Salas, RN and Malina, D and Sacks, CA and Hardin, CC and Prewitt, E and Lee, TH and Rubin, EJ}, title = {Fossil-Fuel Pollution and Climate Change - A New NEJM Group Series.}, journal = {NEJM evidence}, volume = {1}, number = {7}, pages = {EVIDe2200139}, doi = {10.1056/EVIDe2200139}, pmid = {38319263}, issn = {2766-5526}, abstract = {Fossil-Fuel Pollution and Climate ChangeThe editors announce a new NEJM Group series on climate change and the increasingly urgent health and care delivery challenges we face. Articles will appear in the New England Journal of Medicine, in NEJM Evidence, and in NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery.}, }
@article {pmid38319260, year = {2022}, author = {Keswani, A and Akselrod, H and Anenberg, SC}, title = {Health and Clinical Impacts of Air Pollution and Linkages with Climate Change.}, journal = {NEJM evidence}, volume = {1}, number = {7}, pages = {EVIDra2200068}, doi = {10.1056/EVIDra2200068}, pmid = {38319260}, issn = {2766-5526}, abstract = {Air Pollution Impacts and Climate Change LinksAs part of the NEJM Group series on climate change, Keswani and colleagues review the linkages between climate change and air pollution and suggest strategies that clinicians may use to mitigate the adverse health impacts of air pollution.}, }
@article {pmid38315469, year = {2024}, author = {Méndez, M and Pastor, M and Lesaca, AC}, title = {Climate Change, Migration, and Health Disparities at and Beyond the US-Mexico Border.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2024.0228}, pmid = {38315469}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid38314167, year = {2024}, author = {Mayrhofer, M}, title = {Framing UN Human Rights Discourses on Climate Change: The Concept of Vulnerability and its Relation to the Concepts of Inequality and Discrimination.}, journal = {International journal for the semiotics of law = Revue internationale de semiotique juridique}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {91-117}, doi = {10.1007/s11196-023-10092-1}, pmid = {38314167}, issn = {1572-8722}, abstract = {The concept of vulnerability is widely used in human rights policy documents, reports, and case law focusing on the impacts of climate change on human rights. In academic discussions, the concept, however, has also sparked a discussion on its benefits and challenges for the advancement of human rights, especially concerning the principles of equality and non-discrimination. This article aims at contributing to this debate from a frame-analytical perspective. In social sciences, frame-analysis is a form of discourse analysis which focuses on the consequences of different concepts for legal, political, and social discussions and norms. With the example of selected UN documents on different human rights issues in the context of climate change, the article, firstly, analyzes whether and how the concept of vulnerability is defined in the documents and why it is used in the documents. Secondly, it is elaborated to which individuals and groups the concept is applied. Thirdly, it is discussed how vulnerability is conceptualized in relation to or in distinction to the concepts of inequality and discrimination. In a further section it is analyzed what narratives are mobilized by the frame of vulnerability. The article concludes that from a discourse-analytical perspective the frame of vulnerability mobilizes problematic narratives which has gendered and racialized implications for those labeled vulnerable.}, }
@article {pmid38313817, year = {2024}, author = {Duan, Q and Zheng, X and Gan, Z and Lyu, D and Sha, H and Lu, X and Zhao, X and Bukai, A and Duan, R and Qin, S and Wang, L and Xi, J and Wu, D and Zhang, P and Tang, D and He, Z and Jing, H and Kan, B and Wang, X}, title = {Relationship Between Climate Change and Marmot Plague of Marmota himalayana Plague Focus - the Altun Mountains of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, China, 2000-2022.}, journal = {China CDC weekly}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {69-74}, doi = {10.46234/ccdcw2024.015}, pmid = {38313817}, issn = {2096-7071}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Plague is a zoonotic disease that occurs naturally in specific geographic areas. Climate change can influence the populations of the plague host or vector, leading to variations in the occurrence and epidemiology of plague in animals.<br><br>METHODS: In this study, we collected meteorological and plague epidemiological data from the Marmota himalayana plague focus in the Altun Mountains of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The data spanned from 2000 to 2022. We describe the climatic factors and plague epidemic conditions and we describe their analysis by Pearson's correlation.<br><br>RESULTS: During the period from 2000 to 2022, the isolation rates of Yersinia pestis (Y.pestis) from marmots and fleas were 9.27% (451/4,864) and 7.17% (118/1,646), respectively. Additionally, we observed a positive rate of F1 antibody of 11.25% (443/3,937) in marmots and 18.16% (142/782) in dogs. With regards to climate, there was little variation, and a decreasing trend in blowing-sand days was observed. The temperature in the previous year showed a negative correlation with the Y. pestis isolation rate in marmots (r=-0.555, P=0.011) and the positive rate of F1 antibody in marmots (r=-0.552, P=0.012) in the current year. The average annual precipitation in the previous two years showed a positive correlation with marmot density (r=0.514, P=0.024), while blowing-sand days showed a negative correlation with marmot density (r=-0.701, P=0.001). Furthermore, the average annual precipitation in the previous three years showed a positive correlation with the isolation rate of Y. pestis from marmots (r=0.666, P=0.003), and blowing-sand days showed a negative correlation with marmot density (r=-0.597, P=0.009).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study indicate that there is a hysteresis effect of climate change on the prevalence of plague. Therefore, monitoring climate conditions can offer significant insights for implementing timely preventive and control measures to combat plague epidemics.}, }
@article {pmid38312714, year = {2024}, author = {Wright, CY and Kapwata, T and Naidoo, N and Asante, KP and Arku, RE and Cissé, G and Simane, B and Atuyambe, L and Berhane, K}, title = {Climate Change and Human Health in Africa in Relation to Opportunities to Strengthen Mitigating Potential and Adaptive Capacity: Strategies to Inform an African "Brains Trust".}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {90}, number = {1}, pages = {7}, doi = {10.5334/aogh.4260}, pmid = {38312714}, issn = {2214-9996}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Africa faces diverse and complex population/human health challenges due to climate change. Understanding the health impacts of climate change in Africa in all its complexity is essential for implementing effective strategies and policies to mitigate risks and protect vulnerable populations. This study aimed to outline the major climate change-related health impacts in Africa in the context of economic resilience and to seek solutions and provide strategies to prevent or reduce adverse effects of climate change on human health and well-being in Africa.<br><br>METHODS: For this narrative review, a literature search was conducted in the Web of Science, Scopus, CAB Abstracts, MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases. We also searched the reference lists of retrieved articles for additional records as well as reports. We followed a conceptual framework to ensure all aspects of climate change and health impacts in Africa were identified.<br><br>RESULTS: The average temperatures in all six eco-regions of Africa have risen since the early twentieth century, and heat exposure, extreme events, and sea level rise are projected to disproportionately affect Africa, resulting in a larger burden of health impacts than other continents. Given that climate change already poses substantial challenges to African health and well-being, this will necessitate significant effort, financial investment, and dedication to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This review offers African leaders and decision-makers data-driven and action-oriented strategies that will ensure a more resilient healthcare system and safe, healthy populations-in ways that contribute to economic resiliency.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The urgency of climate-health action integrated with sustainable development in Africa cannot be overstated, given the multiple economic gains from reducing current impacts and projected risks of climate change on the continent's population health and well-being. Climate action must be integrated into Africa's development plan to meet the Sustainable Development Goals, protect vulnerable populations from the detrimental effects of climate change, and promote economic development.}, }
@article {pmid38310941, year = {2024}, author = {Names, GR and Grindstaff, JL and Westneat, DF and Heidinger, BJ}, title = {Climate change and its effects on body size and shape: the role of endocrine mechanisms.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {379}, number = {1898}, pages = {20220509}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2022.0509}, pmid = {38310941}, issn = {1471-2970}, abstract = {In many organisms, rapidly changing environmental conditions are inducing dramatic shifts in diverse phenotypic traits with consequences for fitness and population viability. However, the mechanisms that underlie these responses remain poorly understood. Endocrine signalling systems often influence suites of traits and are sensitive to changes in environmental conditions; they are thus ideal candidates for uncovering both plastic and evolved consequences of climate change. Here, we use body size and shape, a set of integrated traits predicted to shift in response to rising temperatures with effects on fitness, and insulin-like growth factor-1 as a case study to explore these ideas. We review what is known about changes in body size and shape in response to rising temperatures and then illustrate why endocrine signalling systems are likely to be critical in mediating these effects. Lastly, we discuss research approaches that will advance understanding of the processes that underlie rapid responses to climate change and the role endocrine systems will have. Knowledge of the mechanisms involved in phenotypic responses to climate change will be essential for predicting both the ecological and the long-term evolutionary consequences of a warming climate. This article is part of the theme issue 'Endocrine responses to environmental variation: conceptual approaches and recent developments'.}, }
@article {pmid38310790, year = {2024}, author = {Rodriguez, M and Fu, G and Butler, D and Yuan, Z and Cook, L}, title = {The effect of green infrastructure on resilience performance in combined sewer systems under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {353}, number = {}, pages = {120229}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120229}, pmid = {38310790}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change is currently reshaping precipitation patterns, intensifying extremes, and altering runoff dynamics. Particularly susceptible to these impacts are combined sewer systems (CSS), which convey both stormwater and wastewater and can lead to combined sewer overflow (CSO) discharges during heavy rainfall. Green infrastructure (GI) can help mitigate these discharges and enhance system resilience under historical conditions; however, the quantification of its effect on resilience in a future climate remains unknown in the literature. This study employs a modified Global Resilience Analysis (GRA) framework for continuous simulation to quantify the impact of climate change on CSS resilience, particularly CSOs. The study assesses the efficacy of GI interventions (green roofs, permeable pavements, and bioretention cells) under diverse future rainfall scenarios based on EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (2085-2099) and three Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 8.5 W/m[2]). The findings underscore a general decline in resilience indices across the future rainfall scenarios considered. Notably, the total yearly CSO discharge volume increases by a range of 145 % to 256 % in response to different rainfall scenarios. While GI proves effective in increasing resilience, it falls short of offsetting the impacts of climate change. Among the GI options assessed, green roofs routed to pervious areas exhibit the highest adaptive capacity, ranging from 9 % to 22 % at a system level, followed by permeable pavements with an adaptation capacity between 7 and 13 %. By linking the effects of future rainfall scenarios on CSO performance, this study contributes to understanding GI's potential as a strategic tool for enhancing urban resilience.}, }
@article {pmid38310733, year = {2024}, author = {Reis, J and Buguet, A and Radomski, M and Stella, AB and Vásquez, TC and Spencer, PS}, title = {Neurological patients confronting climate change: A potential role for the glymphatic system and sleep.}, journal = {Journal of the neurological sciences}, volume = {458}, number = {}, pages = {122900}, doi = {10.1016/j.jns.2024.122900}, pmid = {38310733}, issn = {1878-5883}, abstract = {Interest in the health consequences of climate change (global warming, heatwaves) has increased in the neurological community. This review addresses the impact of elevated ambient temperatures and heatwaves on patients with neurological and mental health disorders, including multiple sclerosis, synucleinopathies, dementia, epilepsies, mental health, and stroke. Patients with such conditions are highly vulnerable during heatwaves because of functional disorders affecting sleep, thermoregulation, autonomic system reactivity, mood, and cognitive ability. Several medications may also increase the risk of heatstroke. Special attention is devoted to the involvement of common underlying mechanisms, such as sleep and the glymphatic system. Disease prevention and patient care during heatwaves are major issues for caregivers. Beyond the usual recommendations for individuals, we favor artificially induced acclimation to heat, which provides preventive benefits with proven efficacy for healthy adults.}, }
@article {pmid38309598, year = {2024}, author = {Skevaki, C and Nadeau, KC and Rothenberg, ME and Alahmad, B and Mmbaga, BT and Masenga, GG and Sampath, V and Christiani, DC and Haahtela, T and Renz, H}, title = {Impact of climate change on immune responses and barrier defense.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2024.01.016}, pmid = {38309598}, issn = {1097-6825}, abstract = {Climate change is not just jeopardizing the health of our planet, but it is increasingly impacting our immune health. There is an expanding body of evidence that climate-related exposures, such as air pollution, heat, wildfires, extreme weather events, and biodiversity loss significantly disrupt the functioning of the human immune system. These exposures manifest in a broad range of stimuli including antigens, allergens, heat stress, pollutants, microbiota changes, and other toxic substances. Such exposures pose a direct and indirect threat to our body's primary line of defense, the epithelial barrier, affecting its physical integrity and functional efficacy. Furthermore, these climate-related environmental stressors can hyper-stimulate the innate immune system and influence adaptive immunity, notably in terms of developing and preserving immune tolerance. The loss or failure of immune tolerance can instigate a wide spectrum of non-communicable diseases such as autoimmune conditions, allergy, respiratory illnesses, metabolic diseases, obesity, and others. As the evidence continues to unravel, there is a need for additional research in climate change and immunology that covers diverse environments in different global settings, employing modern biological and epidemiological tools.}, }
@article {pmid38309363, year = {2024}, author = {Pessarrodona, A and Howard, J and Pidgeon, E and Wernberg, T and Filbee-Dexter, K}, title = {Carbon removal and climate change mitigation by seaweed farming: A state of knowledge review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170525}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170525}, pmid = {38309363}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The pressing need to mitigate the effects of climate change is driving the development of novel approaches for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, with the ocean playing a central role in the portfolio of solutions. The expansion of seaweed farming is increasingly considered as one of the potential CDR avenues among government and private sectors. Yet, comprehensive assessments examining whether farming can lead to tangible climate change mitigation remain limited. Here we examine the results of over 100 publications to synthesize evidence regarding the CDR capacity of seaweed farms and review the different interventions through which an expansion of seaweed farming may contribute to climate change mitigation. We find that presently, the majority of the carbon fixed by seaweeds is stored in short-term carbon reservoirs (e.g., seaweed products) and that only a minority of the carbon ends up in long-term reservoirs that are likely to fit within existing international accounting frameworks (e.g., marine sediments). Additionally, the tiny global area cultivated to date (0.06 % of the estimated wild seaweed extent) limits the global role of seaweed farming in climate change mitigation in the present and mid-term future. A first-order estimate using the best available data suggests that, at present, even in a low emissions scenario, any natural carbon removal capacity provided by seaweed farms is likely to be offset by their emissions (median balance net emitter: -0.11 Tg C yr[-1]; range -2.07-1.95 Tg C yr[-1]), as most of a seaweed farms' energy and materials currently depend on fossil fuels. Enhancing any potential CDR though seaweed farming will require directing harvested biomass to long-term carbon storage products, expanding farming outside traditional cultivation areas, decarbonizing of supply chains, and developing robust models tracing the fate of seaweed carbon. This will present novel scientific (e.g., verifying permanence of seaweed carbon), engineering (e.g., developing farms in wave exposed areas), and economic challenges (e.g., increase market demand, lower costs, decarbonize at scale), many of which are only beginning to be addressed.}, }
@article {pmid38308483, year = {2024}, author = {Okonofua, F}, title = {Climate change and women's health: Call for research and innovations.}, journal = {African journal of reproductive health}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {9-12}, doi = {10.29063/ajrh2024/v28i1.1}, pmid = {38308483}, issn = {1118-4841}, abstract = {Climate change has featured repeatedly in the most recent discourses on global development1. Several global conferences have been held in recent times to discuss and reach consensus on ways to ameliorate the causes and address the consequences of climate change worldwide. These conferences, now called "Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework on Climate change" have taken place in many countries over the last couple of years. The most recent conferences included COP26 and COP27 which took place in Glasgow, UK 2021 and Sham El Sheikh, Egypt in 2022 respectively. The COP28, which took place in Dubai, UAE in 2023 focused on the theme "unite, act, deliver", and was attended by over 85,000 participants.}, }
@article {pmid38308433, year = {2024}, author = {Zurynski, Y and Fisher, G and Wijekulasuriya, S and Leask, E and Dharmayani, PNA and Ellis, LA and Smith, CL and Braithwaite, J}, title = {Bolstering health systems to cope with the impacts of climate change events: A review of the evidence on workforce planning, upskilling, and capacity building.}, journal = {The International journal of health planning and management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/hpm.3769}, pmid = {38308433}, issn = {1099-1751}, support = {ID9100002//National Health and Medical Research Council/ ; ID1176620//National Health and Medical Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: As global CO2 emissions continue to rise and the 'era of global boiling' takes hold, the health workforce must cope with the challenge of providing care to increasing numbers of patients affected by climate change-related events (e.g., hurricanes, wildfires, floods). In this review, we describe the impacts of these events on the health workforce, and strategies responding to these challenges.<br><br>METHODS: This rapid systematic review was guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses and a registered protocol (PROSPERO CRD42023433610). Eight databases were searched in May 2022 and again in June 2023. Empirical studies discussing climate change and workforce policy, planning, preparedness, and capacity were included. Inductive thematic analysis of extracted data was conducted.<br><br>RESULTS: From the 60 included studies, two categories emerged: the impacts of climate events on the health workforce (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;39), and workforce responses to and preparations for climate events (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;58). Thirty-seven studies reported on both categories. Four impact themes were identified: absenteeism, psychological impacts, system breakdown, and unsafe working conditions; and six responses and preparations themes: training/skill development, workforce capacity planning, interdisciplinary collaboration, role flexibility, role incentivisation, and psychological support.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This review provides an overview of some of the deleterious impacts of climate events on the health workforce, as well as potential strategies for the health workforce to prepare or respond to climate events. Future studies should assess the implementation and effectiveness of these strategies to ensure a continuously improving healthcare system, and a well-supported health workforce.}, }
@article {pmid38308010, year = {2024}, author = {Mahmoud, MR and Roushdi, M and Aboelkhear, M}, title = {Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {2771}, pmid = {38308010}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change has been inducing a continuous increase in temperatures within the Arctic region, consequently leading to an escalation in the rates of Arctic ice depletion. These changes have profound implications for navigation along the Arctic Northern Sea Route (NSR). However, access to the NSR is constrained to specific temporal intervals when the sea ice thickness reaches a threshold that permits safe passage of ships. This research employs climate change model simulations and the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System framework to investigate the navigational feasibility of diverse ship types along NSR during the calendar years 2030, 2040, and 2050, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Different ship categories were analyzed within the context of these two scenarios. Results indicate considerable variation in the navigability of different ship categories across different scenarios and years. In general, polar ships demonstrate a higher navigational potential throughout most of the year, while pleasure crafts are constrained to specific periods. These findings bear significant implications for the future of shipping along the NSR. As Arctic ice continues to melt, NSR is anticipated to become more accessible to ships, albeit with navigational availability remaining contingent on the ship category and seasonal considerations.}, }
@article {pmid38307262, year = {2024}, author = {Guo, X and Zhang, P and Yue, Y}, title = {Prediction of global wheat cultivation distribution under climate change and socioeconomic development.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170481}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170481}, pmid = {38307262}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Socioeconomic and climate change are both essential factors affecting the global cultivation distributions of crops. However, the role of socioeconomic factors in the prediction of future crop cultivation distribution under climate change has been rarely explored. Motivated by revealing the future global wheat cultivation distribution that couplings socioeconomic factors and climate change, the MaxEnt-SPAM approach was proposed by the present study. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal patterns of global wheat cultivation in the near-term (2011-2040), the mid-term (2041-2070), and long-term (2071-2100) under the scenarios of RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 were predicted. It indicates that the predictive accuracy of the proposed approach could be over 80 %, with a significant positive correlation (p < 0.01) between the predicted global wheat cultivation and multiple known datasets. Socio-economic development significantly altered the potential distribution of global wheat cultivation driven by climate change. Socio-economic development seems to benefit wheat cultivation in the Southern Hemisphere especially Central and East Africa, while the Northern Hemisphere may have witnessed a decline in future cultivation areas. It is noteworthy that heightened profitability stimulated interest in expanding wheat cultivation efforts within pivotal countries/regions positioned in the Southern Hemisphere. In the long-term period, the potential wheat cultivation area was reduced by 7 % under the RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario, while it expanded by 8 % and 2 % under the RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP8.5-SSP3 scenarios, respectively. A global decline in wheat production of 16 %, 3 %, and 3 % was observed in the long-term under the RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 scenarios respectively. The present study emphasized the importance of integrating socio-economic factors into crop distribution predictions under climate change. Our findings indicated significant temporal adjustments in the future global distribution of wheat cultivation and offered a comprehensive perspective on how socioeconomic factors interacted with climate change to influence global wheat cultivation.}, }
@article {pmid38306288, year = {2024}, author = {Terry, JCD and O'Sullivan, JD and Rossberg, AG}, title = {Schrödinger's Range-Shifting Cat: How Skewed Temperature Dependence Impacts Persistence with Climate Change.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {203}, number = {2}, pages = {161-173}, doi = {10.1086/728002}, pmid = {38306288}, issn = {1537-5323}, abstract = {AbstractThe majority of species display strongly asymmetric responses to climatic variables, yet most analytic models used to investigate how species will respond to climate change assume symmetric responses, with largely unknown consequences. Applying a known mapping of population dynamical equations onto corresponding well-studied problems from quantum mechanics, we extend analytical results to incorporate this asymmetry. We derive expressions in terms of parameters representing climate velocity, dispersal rate, maximum growth rate, niche width, high-frequency climate variability, and environmental performance curve skew for three key responses: (1) population persistence, (2) lag between range displacement and climate displacement, and (3) location of maximum population sensitivity. We find that asymmetry impacts these climate change responses, but surprisingly, under our model assumptions, the direction (i.e., warm skewed or cool skewed) of performance curve asymmetry does not strongly contribute to either persistence or lags. Conservation measures to support range-shifting populations may have most benefit near their environmental optimum or where the environmental dependence is shallow, irrespective of whether this is the leading or trailing edge. A metapopulation simulation corroborates our results. Our results shed fresh light on how key features of a species' environmental performance curve can impact its response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38305639, year = {2024}, author = {Cook, M and Critchlow, N and O'Donnell, R and MacLean, S}, title = {Alcohol's contribution to climate change and other environmental degradation: a call for research.}, journal = {Health promotion international}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/heapro/daae004}, pmid = {38305639}, issn = {1460-2245}, abstract = {Climate change is the single biggest health threat facing humanity. The production, distribution and consumption of many fast-moving consumer goods contribute substantially to climate change, principally through releasing greenhouse gas emissions. Here we consider just some of the ways that alcohol-already a key contributor to an array of health, social and economic burdens-exacerbates environmental harms and climate change. We explore current evidence on alcohol production as a resource- and energy-intensive process, contributing to significant environmental degradation through water usage and other carbon emission costs. We argue that the impacts of alcohol production on climate change have been minimally explored by researchers. Yet the extent of the unfolding catastrophe beholds us to consider all available ways to mitigate unnecessary emissions, including from products such as alcohol. We then turn to suggestions for a research agenda on this topic, including investigations of commercial determinants, inequalities and product advice to help consumers choose lower-carbon options. We conclude by arguing that public health researchers already have an array of methodological expertise and experience that is well placed to produce the evidence needed to inform regulation and efforts by alcohol producers and consumers to minimize their contributions to environmental harms.}, }
@article {pmid38303693, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, J and Chen, H and Wang, M and Liu, X and Peng, C and Wang, L and Yu, D and Zhu, Q}, title = {An optimized water table depth detected for mitigating global warming potential of greenhouse gas emissions in wetland of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {108856}, doi = {10.1016/j.isci.2024.108856}, pmid = {38303693}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Climate change and human activities have intensified variations of water table depth (WTD) in wetlands around the world, which may strongly affect greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we analyzed how emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O from the Zoige wetland on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) vary with the WTD. Our data indicate that the wetland shows net positive global warming potential (11.72 tCO2-e ha[-1] yr[-1]), and its emissions of greenhouse gases are driven primarily by WTD. Our analysis suggests that an optimal WTD exists, which at our study site was approximately 18 cm, for mitigating increases in global warming potential from the wetland. Our study provides insights into how climate change and human acitivies affect greenhouse gas emissions from alpine wetlands, and they suggest that water table management may be effective at mitigating future increases in emissions.}, }
@article {pmid38303639, year = {2024}, author = {Filippini, T and Paduano, S and Veneri, F and Barbolini, G and Fiore, G and Vinceti, M}, title = {Adverse human health effects of climate change: an update.}, journal = {Annali di igiene : medicina preventiva e di comunita}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.7416/ai.2024.2595}, pmid = {38303639}, issn = {1120-9135}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The world is currently facing a process of climate change, which may adversely impact human health in many different ways. The safety of food, water and urban environments is endangered by the consequences of climate change. Sea level and temperature rise, along with more frequent and longer heat waves, represent only a few of the effects of climate change. The increased risk of extreme climate events (e.g., cyclones, droughts and floods) is another serious public health issue. These adverse effects are enhanced in areas and countries not having the capacity to effectively deal with climate change.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: We primarily aimed at summarizing the impacts of climate change on public health. A further aim was to identify the most concerning consequences of this phenomenon and the vulnerability factors that amplify the negative effects of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: PubMed and other literature databases were used as literature sources for this narrative review based on the search terms 'climate change' and 'diseases categories' up to January 2024, in order to assess the most recent and relevant scientific evidence about the relation between climate change and public health, identify knowledge gaps and priorities for future research. We also screened the websites of major agencies devoted to human health protection and environmental health.<br><br>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Climate change appears to induce a broad spectrum of generally adverse effects on public health. It may increase the risk of infectious diseases, psychiatric disorders, cancer and other diseases. Currently, we are not effectively counteracting this phenomenon, since pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing alongside temperatures. A host of measures are required in order to prevent and fight climate change and related health effects. These include the adoption of a holistic approach and the collaboration of different kinds of expertise in order to design more effective strategies. Special attention should be paid to those who live in disadvantaged countries, and those who are more vulnerable to the adverse health consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38302699, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {A glacier's 'memory' is fading because of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38302699}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38301477, year = {2024}, author = {Tao, Z and Liu, Y and Li, S and Li, B and Fan, X and Liu, C and Hu, C and Liu, H and Li, Z}, title = {Global warming potential assessment under reclaimed water and livestock wastewater irrigation coupled with co-application of inhibitors and biochar.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {353}, number = {}, pages = {120143}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120143}, pmid = {38301477}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The application of nitrification inhibitors (nitrapyrin) and urease inhibitors (N-(N-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide) under conventional water resources has been considered as an effective means to improve nitrogen utilization efficiency and mitigate soil greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is not known whether the inhibitors still have an inhibitory effect under unconventional water resources (reclaimed water and livestock wastewater) irrigation and whether their use in combination with biochar improves the mitigation effect. Therefore, unconventional water resources were used for irrigation, with groundwater (GW) control. Nitrapyrin and N-(N-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide were used alone or in combination with biochar in a pot experiment, and CO2, N2O, and CH4 emissions were measured. The results showed that irrigation of unconventional water resources exacerbated global warming potential (GWP). All exogenous substance treatments increased CO2 and CH4 emissions and suppressed N2O emissions, independent of the type of water, compared to no substances (NS). The inhibitors were ineffective in reducing the GWP whether or not in combination with biochar, and the combined application of inhibitors with biochar further increased the GWP. This study suggests that using inhibitors and biochar in combination to regulate the greenhouse effect under unconventional water resources irrigation should be done with caution.}, }
@article {pmid38299979, year = {2024}, author = {Fonseca, SNS}, title = {Overview of invasive fungal infections in children in South America - the threat of resistant Candida species and the role of climate change in the new geographic distribution of endemic systemic mycosis.}, journal = {Current opinion in pediatrics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38299979}, issn = {1531-698X}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Invasive fungal infection (IFI) in children is a growing problem with crescent morbidity and mortality, well recognized in developed countries, affecting mainly immunocompromised children, including neonates and children in intensive care units. The burden of IFI in South American children is less well comprehended. In addition, the current epidemiology of endemic systemic mycoses in children may have changed over time.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Candida spp. infections are very prevalent in South America hospitalized children, especially in neonates, in a rate far superior compared to developed countries. C. auris, has already been responsible for outbreaks in neonates and children in Venezuela and Colombia. Sporotrichosis is well established as an urban zoonosis in impoverish families. Paracoccidioidomycosis and histoplasmosis are affecting new areas of Brazil, probably due to climate change, deforestation, and human migration.<br><br>SUMMARY: This review aims to unveil the real dimension of these infections in South American children. Hopefully, the awareness brought by this review will help healthcare professionals to recognize IFI more easily and it will provide support for getting more resources for IFI treatment and prevention.}, }
@article {pmid38298893, year = {2024}, author = {Rodríguez, V and Bartholomäus, A and Witzgall, K and Riveras-Muñoz, N and Oses, R and Liebner, S and Kallmeyer, J and Rach, O and Mueller, CW and Seguel, O and Scholten, T and Wagner, D}, title = {Microbial impact on initial soil formation in arid and semiarid environments under simulated climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {1319997}, doi = {10.3389/fmicb.2024.1319997}, pmid = {38298893}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {The microbiota is attributed to be important for initial soil formation under extreme climate conditions, but experimental evidence for its relevance is scarce. To fill this gap, we investigated the impact of in situ microbial communities and their interrelationship with biocrust and plants compared to abiotic controls on soil formation in initial arid and semiarid soils. Additionally, we assessed the response of bacterial communities to climate change. Topsoil and subsoil samples from arid and semiarid sites in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera were incubated for 16 weeks under diurnal temperature and moisture variations to simulate humid climate conditions as part of a climate change scenario. Our findings indicate that microorganism-plant interaction intensified aggregate formation and stabilized soil structure, facilitating initial soil formation. Interestingly, microorganisms alone or in conjunction with biocrust showed no discernible patterns compared to abiotic controls, potentially due to water-masking effects. Arid soils displayed reduced bacterial diversity and developed a new community structure dominated by Proteobacteria, Actinobacteriota, and Planctomycetota, while semiarid soils maintained a consistently dominant community of Acidobacteriota and Proteobacteria. This highlighted a sensitive and specialized bacterial community in arid soils, while semiarid soils exhibited a more complex and stable community. We conclude that microorganism-plant interaction has measurable impacts on initial soil formation in arid and semiarid regions on short time scales under climate change. Additionally, we propose that soil and climate legacies are decisive for the present soil microbial community structure and interactions, future soil development, and microbial responses.}, }
@article {pmid38298726, year = {2024}, author = {Vallée, A}, title = {Green hospitals face to climate change: Between sobriety and resilience.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {e24769}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24769}, pmid = {38298726}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change poses a critical challenge to global health, influencing social and environmental determinants such as housing, air and water quality, and food security. This article explores the profound impact of climate change on health, projecting an additional 250,000 annual deaths from various climate-related diseases between 2030 and 2050. Healthcare systems significantly contribute to global carbon emissions. The concept of the "Green Hospital" is introduced as a paradigm shift in healthcare, focusing on optimizing resource efficiency and minimizing environmental impact. This concept encompasses renewable energy integration, natural lighting, sustainable materials, green roofs, and smart building management systems. Several challenges remain major, such as medical waste management, water conservation, chemical use, pollution, and plastic usage in healthcare settings. Moreover, obstacles to green hospital initiatives should be resolved, including system redundancy, regulatory compliance, operational demands, financial constraints, and cultural resistance. Conclusively, an urgent reformation of healthcare systems is needed to align with eco-friendly and sustainable practices, highlighting the necessity to reduce CO[2] emissions and manage resources and waste more effectively to meet the evolving health needs of a growing and aging global population.}, }
@article {pmid38298502, year = {2024}, author = {The Lancet Regional Health-Americas, }, title = {Viruses, bacteria, vectors, and climate change: how worried should the Americas be?.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {100675}, doi = {10.1016/j.lana.2024.100675}, pmid = {38298502}, issn = {2667-193X}, }
@article {pmid38296360, year = {2024}, author = {The Lancet Hiv, }, title = {Effect of climate change on the HIV response.}, journal = {The lancet. HIV}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {e63}, doi = {10.1016/S2352-3018(24)00009-2}, pmid = {38296360}, issn = {2352-3018}, }
@article {pmid38295640, year = {2024}, author = {Dar, AA and Chen, Z and Rodríguez-Rodríguez, S and Haghighat, F and González-Rosales, B}, title = {Assessing greenhouse gas emissions in Cuban agricultural soils: Implications for climate change and rice (Oryza sativa L.) production.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {353}, number = {}, pages = {120088}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120088}, pmid = {38295640}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Assessing the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on agricultural soils is crucial for ensuring food production sustainability in the global effort to combat climate change. The present study delves to comprehensively assess GHG emissions in Cuba's agricultural soil and analyze its implications for rice production and climate change because of its rich agriculture cultivation tradition and diverse agro-ecological zones from the period of 1990-2022. In this research, based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach the empirical findings depicts that in short run, a positive and significant impact of 1.60 percent % in Cuba's rice production. The higher amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels improves photosynthesis, and stimulates the growth of rice plants, resulting in greater grain yields. On the other hand, rice production index raising GHG emissions from agriculture by 0.35 % in the short run. Furthermore, a significant and positive impact on rice production is found in relation to the farm machinery i.e., 3.1 %. Conversely, an adverse and significant impact of land quality was observed on rice production i.e., -5.5 %. The reliability of models was confirmed by CUSUM and CUSUM square plot. Diagnostic tests ensure the absence of serial correlation and heteroscedasticity in the models. Additionally, the forecasting results are obtained from the three machine learning models i.e. feed forward neural network (FFNN), support vector machines (SVM) and adaptive boosting technique (Adaboost). Through the % MAPE criterion, it is evident that FFNN has achieved high precision (91 %). Based on the empirical findings, the study proposed the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices and incentives should be given to the farmers so that future generations inherit a world that is sustainable, and healthy.}, }
@article {pmid38297010, year = {2024}, author = {Shahid, H and Hyder, S and Naeem, M and Sehar, A and Gondal, AS and Rizvi, ZF and Iqbal, R and Habib Ur Rahman, M and Alwahibi, MS and Elshikh, MS and Ayaz, M and Arslan, M and de Los Santos-Villalobos, S and Montoya-Martínez, AC}, title = {Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Dickeya zeae causal agent of stalk rot of maize in Sialkot district Pakistan.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {2614}, pmid = {38297010}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Maize (Zea mays) is an influential crop in its production across the world. However, the invasion of many phytopathogens greatly affects the maize crop yield at various hotspot areas. Of many diseases, bacterial stalk rot of maize caused by Dickeya zeae results in severe yield reduction, thus the need for efficient management is important. Further, to produce epidemiological information for control of disease outbreaks in the hot spot regions of Sialkot District, Punjab Pakistan, extensive field surveys during 2021 showed that out of 266 visited areas, the highest disease incidence ranging from 66.5 to 78.5% while the lowest incidence was ranging from 9 to 20%. The Maxent modeling revealed that among 19 environmental variables, four variables including temperature seasonality (bio-4), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio-8), annual precipitation (bio-12), and precipitation of driest month (bio-14) were significantly contributing to disease distribution in current and coming years. The study outcomes revealed that disease spread will likely increase across four tehsils of Sialkot over the years 2050 and 2070. Our findings will be helpful to policymakers and researchers in devising effective disease management strategies against bacterial stalk rot of maize outbreaks in Sialkot, Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid38294708, year = {2024}, author = {Miller, E}, title = {The Black Saturday bushfire disaster: found poetry for arts-based knowledge translation in disaster risk and climate change communication.}, journal = {Arts &amp; health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-16}, doi = {10.1080/17533015.2024.2310861}, pmid = {38294708}, issn = {1753-3023}, abstract = {This research uses the arts-based research method of found poetry, the creation of poem-like prose from existing text, to share the lived experience of the 2009 Black Saturday bushfire disaster in Australia which killed 173 people. After outlining the processes, this paper applies found poetry to an existing text: Peg Fraser's book, Black Saturday. Five found poems are shared, each conveying a different element of the disaster experience: "Armageddon," "Go - GET OUT," "Bushfire Chook," "Resisting the Poetry Tree," and "Lucky". Compared to normal prose, there is an authentic and vulnerable vibrancy to the language of these found poems, which offer unexpected visceral insight into the bushfire experience - the fear, the heat, the confusion, the anger, and the loss. Poetry, which resonates and draws people in emotionally, has significant potential as arts-based knowledge translation in disaster risk and climate change communication.}, }
@article {pmid38294223, year = {2024}, author = {Jutla, A and Filippelli, GM and McMahon, KD and Tringe, SG and Colwell, RR and Nguyen, H and Imperiale, MJ}, title = {One Health, climate change, and infectious microbes: a joint effort between AGU and ASM to understand impacts of changing climate and microbes on human well-being across scales.}, journal = {mSphere}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e0003524}, doi = {10.1128/msphere.00035-24}, pmid = {38294223}, issn = {2379-5042}, }
@article {pmid38293573, year = {2024}, author = {Gouvêa, L and Fragkopoulou, E and Legrand, T and Serrão, EA and Assis, J}, title = {Range map data of marine ecosystem structuring species under global climate change.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {52}, number = {}, pages = {110023}, doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2023.110023}, pmid = {38293573}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Data on contemporary and future geographical distributions of marine species are crucial for guiding conservation and management policies in face of climate change. However, available distributional patterns have overlooked key ecosystem structuring species, despite their numerous ecological and socioeconomic services. Future range estimates are mostly available for few species at regional scales, and often rely on the outdated Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios of climate change, hindering global biodiversity estimates within the framework of current international climate policies. Here, we provide range maps for 980 marine structuring species of seagrasses, kelps, fucoids, and cold-water corals under present-day conditions (from 2010 to 2020) and future scenarios (from 2090 to 2100) spanning from low carbon emission scenarios aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9), to higher emissions under reduced mitigation strategies (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). These models were developed using state-of-the-art and advanced machine learning algorithms linking the most comprehensive and quality-controlled datasets of occurrence records with high-resolution, biologically relevant predictor variables. By integrating the best aspects of species distribution modelling over key ecosystem structuring species, our datasets hold the potential to enhance the ability to inform strategic and effective conservation policy, ultimately supporting the resilience of ocean ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38293486, year = {2024}, author = {Kapruwan, R and Saksham, AK and Bhadoriya, VS and Kumar, C and Goyal, Y and Pandey, R}, title = {Household livelihood resilience of pastoralists and smallholders to climate change in Western Himalaya, India.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {e24133}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24133}, pmid = {38293486}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Smallholders and pastoralists are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to their high reliance on socio-ecological systems for their livelihood. Building their resilience to these adverse effects of climate change is crucial for mitigating their vulnerabilities, especially in remote and fragile ecosystems. This study aims to assess the climate change livelihood resilience of smallholders and pastoralists in the Indian Himalayas. We build a livelihood resilience index, using the three dimensions of resilience, namely assimilative capacity, autopoiesis and cognitive ability, and weighed using entropy-TOPSIS approach The dimensions of resilience was estimated through indicators by a household survey of 289 randomly selected respondents across the three districts of Garhwal Himalayas. The results showed that the livelihood resilience of smallholders was greater than pastoralists. Among pastoralists, settlement brought positive changes to their livelihood, opening the gateway to access basic facilities. Key findings of the study indicate that public policy should focus towards information accessibility, encouraging environmental awareness and conservation, promoting social inclusion and cooperatives, and fostering grass root organization structures like forest-level organisation through informality to strengthen the resilience of communities to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38292427, year = {2024}, author = {Lepawsky, J}, title = {Climate change induced water stress and future semiconductor supply chain risk.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {108791}, doi = {10.1016/j.isci.2024.108791}, pmid = {38292427}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Climate change is a driver of water stress risk globally. Semiconductor manufacturing requires large volumes of water. Existing research at the intersection of water stress risk and semiconductor manufacturing offers snapshots of current conditions but has not investigated how future climate scenarios may impact semiconductor supply chain security. This study combines location data for semiconductor manufacturing facilities with data on specific customer-supplier networks and with data for global water stress risk under three climate scenarios for the years 2030 and 2040. Results suggest that 40 percent of existing facilities, 24-40 percent of facilities under construction, and 40-49 percent of facilities announced since early 2021 are in basins of high- or extremely high water stress risks in 2030 and 2040. Network dynamics mean that water stress risks could cascade from individual firms or regions of concern to systemically throughout the network, thus negatively impacting semiconductor supply chain security globally.}, }
@article {pmid38291300, year = {2024}, author = {Carlson, CJ}, title = {After millions of preventable deaths, climate change must be treated like a health emergency.}, journal = {Nature medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38291300}, issn = {1546-170X}, }
@article {pmid38290010, year = {2024}, author = {Solis Araya, C}, title = {Intersections between climate change and mental health: New challenges for the development of care services.}, journal = {Medwave}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.5867/medwave.2024.01.2809}, pmid = {38290010}, issn = {0717-6384}, }
@article {pmid38286803, year = {2024}, author = {Sadoine, ML and Zinszer, K and Liu, Y and Gachon, P and Fournier, M and Dueymes, G and Dorsey, G and Llerena, A and Namuganga, JF and Nasri, B and Smargiassi, A}, title = {Predicting malaria risk considering vector control interventions under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {2430}, pmid = {38286803}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Many studies have projected malaria risks with climate change scenarios by modelling one or two environmental variables and without the consideration of malaria control interventions. We aimed to predict the risk of malaria with climate change considering the influence of rainfall, humidity, temperatures, vegetation, and vector control interventions (indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN)). We used negative binomial models based on weekly malaria data from six facility-based surveillance sites in Uganda from 2010-2018, to estimate associations between malaria, environmental variables and interventions, accounting for the non-linearity of environmental variables. Associations were applied to future climate scenarios to predict malaria distribution using an ensemble of Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Predictions including interaction effects between environmental variables and interventions were also explored. The results showed upward trends in the annual malaria cases by 25% to 30% by 2050s in the absence of intervention but there was great variability in the predictions (historical vs RCP 4.5 medians [Min-Max]: 16,785 [9,902-74,382] vs 21,289 [11,796-70,606]). The combination of IRS and LLIN, IRS alone, and LLIN alone would contribute to reducing the malaria burden by 76%, 63% and 35% respectively. Similar conclusions were drawn from the predictions of the models with and without interactions between environmental factors and interventions, suggesting that the interactions have no added value for the predictions. The results highlight the need for maintaining vector control interventions for malaria prevention and control in the context of climate change given the potential public health and economic implications of increasing malaria in Uganda.}, }
@article {pmid38286069, year = {2024}, author = {Tang, Z and Wang, P and Li, Y and Sheng, Y and Wang, B and Popovych, N and Hu, T}, title = {Contributions of climate change and urbanization to urban flood hazard changes in China's 293 major cities since 1980.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {353}, number = {}, pages = {120113}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120113}, pmid = {38286069}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {The growing incidence of urban flood disasters poses a major challenge to urban sustainability in China. Previous studies have reported that climate change and urbanization exacerbate urban flood risk in some major cities of China. However, few assessments have quantified the contributions of these two factors to urban flood changes in recent decades at the nationwide scale. Here, surface runoff caused by precipitation extremes was used as the urban flood hazard to evaluate the impacts of climate change and urbanization in China's 293 major cities. This study assessed the contributions of these drivers to urban flood hazard changes and identified the hotspot cities with increased trends under both factors during the past four decades (1980-2019). The results showed that approximately 70% of the cities analyzed have seen an increase of urban flood hazard in the latest decade. Urbanization made a positive contribution to increased urban flood hazards in more than 90% of the cities. The contribution direction of climate change showed significant variations across China. Overall, the absolute contribution rate of climate change far outweighed that of urbanization. In half of the cities (mainly distributed in eastern China), both climate change and urbanization led to increased urban flood hazard over the past decade. Among them, 33 cities have suffered a consecutive increase in urban flood hazard driven by both factors.}, }
@article {pmid38285933, year = {2024}, author = {Lewin, PJ and Wynn, J and Arcos, JM and Austin, RE and Blagrove, J and Bond, S and Carrasco, G and Delord, K and Fisher-Reeves, L and García, D and Gillies, N and Guilford, T and Hawkins, I and Jaggers, P and Kirk, C and Louzao, M and Maurice, L and McMinn, M and Micol, T and Morford, J and Morgan, G and Moss, J and Riera, EM and Rodriguez, A and Siddiqi-Davies, K and Weimerskirch, H and Wynn, RB and Padget, O}, title = {Climate change drives migratory range shift via individual plasticity in shearwaters.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {6}, pages = {e2312438121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2312438121}, pmid = {38285933}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {RPG-2020-311//Leverhulme Trust/ ; BB/M011224/1//UKRI | Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)/ ; RYC-2012-09897//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n (MCIN)/ ; JCI-2010-07639//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n (MCIN)/ ; PCIG09-GA-2011-293774//Marie Curie Career Integration Grant/ ; LIFE07NAT / E / 000732//LIFE+ INDEMARES/ ; LIFE15 IP ES 012 INTEMARES//LIFE IP INTEMARES/ ; }, abstract = {How individual animals respond to climate change is key to whether populations will persist or go extinct. Yet, few studies investigate how changes in individual behavior underpin these population-level phenomena. Shifts in the distributions of migratory animals can occur through adaptation in migratory behaviors, but there is little understanding of how selection and plasticity contribute to population range shift. Here, we use long-term geolocator tracking of Balearic shearwaters (Puffinus mauretanicus) to investigate how year-to-year changes in individual birds' migrations underpin a range shift in the post-breeding migration. We demonstrate a northward shift in the post-breeding range and show that this is brought about by individual plasticity in migratory destination, with individuals migrating further north in response to changes in sea-surface temperature. Furthermore, we find that when individuals migrate further, they return faster, perhaps minimizing delays in return to the breeding area. Birds apparently judge the increased distance that they will need to migrate via memory of the migration route, suggesting that spatial cognitive mechanisms may contribute to this plasticity and the resulting range shift. Our study exemplifies the role that individual behavior plays in populations' responses to environmental change and highlights some of the behavioral mechanisms that might be key to understanding and predicting species persistence in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38285233, year = {2024}, author = {Akbari, A and Sadoddin, A and Asgari, H}, title = {A framework for modeling an agronomic system's vulnerability to climate change with reflections from the Caspian coastal agro-ecological zone of Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {2}, pages = {210}, pmid = {38285233}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {Assessing the vulnerability of different sectors to climate change has great importance in determining the appropriate adaptation measures to deal with climate change impacts on a river basin scale. In this research, using a framework for modeling the agronomic system vulnerability to climate change, vulnerability assessment under different scenarios was conducted for the Gorganrud River Basin located in the agro-ecological zone of the Caspian coastal plain of Iran. Considering exposure, susceptibility, and lack of resilience components, 12 indicators were chosen and quantified for both agronomic-environmental and socio-economic aspects. The SSM-iCrop2 model was used to simulate crop yield under current and climate change scenarios across the basin. The analysis indicates that in the current condition, the vulnerability level is different across the watersheds of the Gorganrud River Basin. By applying the climate change scenarios, agronomic system vulnerability would increase in the basin to some extent, particularly in Madarsu and Tilabad watersheds attributed with high vulnerability (0.63 and 0.61, respectively). This justifies the need to implement adaptation plans for encountering water shortage in the future. The analysis also suggests that the vulnerability of the agronomic system for adaptation scenarios characterized by less water consumption under climate change conditions is going to be slightly different from the vulnerability under the climate change scenarios. Due to an increase in agronomic system vulnerability under climate change scenarios, coupled with the fact that most watersheds (except Chehelchai, Nardin, and Narmab) are moderately vulnerable even under current conditions, policymakers and planners should promote crop and livelihood diversification programs aiming to prevent an increase in agronomic vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid38285056, year = {2024}, author = {Traidl-Hoffmann, C and John, SM and Zink, A}, title = {[Climate change gets under the skin].}, journal = {Dermatologie (Heidelberg, Germany)}, volume = {75}, number = {2}, pages = {91-92}, doi = {10.1007/s00105-023-05290-8}, pmid = {38285056}, issn = {2731-7013}, }
@article {pmid38284299, year = {2024}, author = {Denis, V and Ferrier-Pagès, C and Schubert, N and Coppari, M and Baker, DM and Camp, EF and Gori, A and Grottoli, AG and Houlbrèque, F and Maier, SR and Mancinelli, G and Martinez, S and Yalçın Özdilek, &#x15e; and Radice, VZ and Ribes, M and Richter, C and Viladrich, N and Rossi, S}, title = {Heterotrophy in marine animal forests in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/brv.13053}, pmid = {38284299}, issn = {1469-185X}, support = {//Greenland Self Rule Governments/ ; CA20102//European Cooperation in Science and Technology/ ; LA/P/0101/2020//Portuguese national funds from the FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; UIDB/04326/2020//Portuguese national funds from the FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; UIDP/04326/2020//Portuguese national funds from the FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; 841875//Marie Curie Individual Global Fellowship-Horizon 2020 European Framework Programme/ ; //Greenland Research Council/ ; 101036515//EU Horizon Europe/ ; 111-2628-M-002-007-MY3//National Science and Technology Council/ ; }, abstract = {Marine animal forests (MAFs) are benthic ecosystems characterised by biogenic three-dimensional structures formed by suspension feeders such as corals, gorgonians, sponges and bivalves. They comprise highly diversified communities among the most productive in the world's oceans. However, MAFs are in decline due to global and local stressors that threaten the survival and growth of their foundational species and associated biodiversity. Innovative and scalable interventions are needed to address the degradation of MAFs and increase their resilience under global change. Surprisingly, few studies have considered trophic interactions and heterotrophic feeding of MAF suspension feeders as an integral component of MAF conservation. Yet, trophic interactions are important for nutrient cycling, energy flow within the food web, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and MAF stability. This comprehensive review describes trophic interactions at all levels of ecological organisation in tropical, temperate, and cold-water MAFs. It examines the strengths and weaknesses of available tools for estimating the heterotrophic capacities of the foundational species in MAFs. It then discusses the threats that climate change poses to heterotrophic processes. Finally, it presents strategies for improving trophic interactions and heterotrophy, which can help to maintain the health and resilience of MAFs.}, }
@article {pmid38283581, year = {2023}, author = {Myhre, SL and Scobie, M and Meriläinen, E and Kelman, I and Gopinathan, U}, title = {Climate Change, Community Action, and Health in the Anglophone Caribbean: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {Public health reviews}, volume = {44}, number = {}, pages = {1605843}, doi = {10.3389/phrs.2023.1605843}, pmid = {38283581}, issn = {0301-0422}, abstract = {Objective: This scoping review investigates the status of research focusing on the nexus of community action, climate change, and health and wellbeing in anglophone Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Methods: This review was guided by Arksey and O'Malley framework and utilized the PRISMA-ScR checklist. We searched Medline/OVID, PsychInfo, VHL, Sociological Abstracts, Google Scholar, and Scopus to capture interdisciplinary studies published from 1946 to 2021. Results: The search yielded 3,828 records of which fourteen studies met the eligibility criteria. The analysis assessed study aim, geographic focus, community stakeholders, community action, climate perspective, health impact, as well as dimensions including resources/assets, education/information, organization and governance, innovation and flexibility, and efficacy and agency. Nearly all studies were case studies using mixed method approaches involving qualitative and quantitative data. Community groups organized around focal areas related to fishing, farming, food security, conservation, and the environment. Conclusion: Despite the bearing these areas have on public health, few studies explicitly examine direct links between health and climate change. Research dedicated to the nexus of community action, climate change, and health in the anglophone Caribbean warrants further study.}, }
@article {pmid38282357, year = {2024}, author = {Isopp, B}, title = {The politics of politicization: Climate change debates in Canadian print media.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {9636625231220226}, doi = {10.1177/09636625231220226}, pmid = {38282357}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Politicization is frequently employed as an analytic concept to explain the relationships between politics and media coverage of climate change. However, relatively few works explore how different notions of politicization are mobilized by actors in media discourses themselves. This article does so via a framing analysis of climate change coverage in Canadian newspapers. I investigate how different relationships between science and politics are conceived and associated with varying positions on climate change. In particular, I examine a supposition in science and technology studies that the media remains committed to deficit models and thus uncritically reproduces the authority of science. Scientistic discourses exist but among a diversity of politicization framings. A key finding is that the strongest appeals to scientific neutrality are associated with climate skepticism. This casts light on the nuanced, strategic "politics of politicization" in climate change debates. A more fine-grained and reflexive approach to politicization discourses can help identify productive interventions.}, }
@article {pmid38280592, year = {2024}, author = {Středová, H and Fukalová, P and Chuchma, F and Haberle, J and Středa, T}, title = {Nitrates directive restriction: To change or not to change in terms of climate change, that is the question.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170381}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170381}, pmid = {38280592}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The positive effect of nitrogen fertilization in agriculture inevitably increases residual nitrogen losses. Water pollution led to legal restrictions of some farm practices within the framework of the Nitrates Directive of the EU. Nevertheless, even several decades later, the situation has not improved significantly. We present a possible science-based explanation of such a state and provide it to farmers and government as a support for environmental management settings. This study aimed to compare an established approach to implementing the Nitrates Directive, specifically the climate-based zoning of nitrogen fertilization restrictions using data from the mid-20th century. We evaluated this approach by juxtaposing the initial climate data with more recent data spanning from 1991 to 2020. Subsequently, we examined this zoning framework from the perspective of the non-vegetative period, characterized by temperatures below 5 °C, which is widely acknowledged as a critical threshold for nitrogen intake by plants. We found out that i) the employed climate-born zoning does not correspond to recent climate data; ii) nonvegetation period is longer than nitrogen fertilization restrictions. Therefore, despite a noteworthy 22 day reduction in the nonvegetation period from 1961/1962 to 2019/2020, we cast doubt on the notion that the period limiting nitrogen fertilizer application should also be shortened, while admitting that there are other abiotic and biotic factors affecting nitrogen behaviour within the ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid38279578, year = {2024}, author = {Fekih-Romdhane, F and Malaeb, D and Postigo, A and Sakr, F and Dabbous, M and Khatib, SE and Obeid, S and Hallit, S}, title = {The relationship between climate change anxiety and psychotic experiences is mediated by death anxiety.}, journal = {The International journal of social psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {207640231221102}, doi = {10.1177/00207640231221102}, pmid = {38279578}, issn = {1741-2854}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: As climate change persists, accelerates, and intensifies, and since mitigating factors are absent, mental health impacts are expected to follow the same patterns. Therefore, it appears of utmost importance to deepen and broaden the knowledge and understanding of how and through which mechanisms climate change anxiety (CCA) may interplay with mental health outcomes. Based on the stress-vulnerability model of psychosis, the present study proposed to examine the relationship between CCA and psychotic experiences (PEs), and to test the theoretically-driven hypothesis that death anxiety acts as a mediator in this relationship.<br><br>METHOD: This study adopted a cross-sectional approach involving a sample of young adults aged 18 to 35&#x2009;years (mean age&#x2009;=&#x2009;24.56&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;22.49 years; 63.9% females) originating from, and residing in Lebanon.<br><br>RESULTS: The results of the mediation analysis showed that death anxiety partially mediated the association between CCA and PEs. Higher CCA was significantly associated with higher death anxiety; higher death anxiety was significantly associated with more PEs. Finally, higher CCA was directly and significantly associated with more PEs.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Drawing from the present preliminary findings, the key tentative recommendation is that addressing death anxiety might alleviate the association between CCA and PEs. In addition, government decision-makers need to recognize the necessity of considering climate change implications on mental health in policy and decision-making.}, }
@article {pmid38278955, year = {2024}, author = {Naumova, EN}, title = {Tipping points, still-points, and missing points in the public health agenda for climate change, food safety and food security.}, journal = {Journal of public health policy}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38278955}, issn = {1745-655X}, }
@article {pmid38278227, year = {2024}, author = {He, Y and Xiong, W and Hu, P and Huang, D and Feurtado, JA and Zhang, T and Hao, C and DePauw, R and Zheng, B and Hoogenboom, G and Dixon, LE and Wang, H and Challinor, AJ}, title = {Climate change enhances stability of wheat-flowering-date.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170305}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170305}, pmid = {38278227}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The stability of winter wheat-flowering-date is crucial for ensuring consistent and robust crop performance across diverse climatic conditions. However, the impact of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates remains uncertain. This study aims to elucidate the influence of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates, predict how projected future climate conditions will affect flowering date stability, and identify the most stable wheat genotypes in the study region. We applied a multi-locus genotype-based (MLG-based) model for simulating wheat-flowering-dates, which we calibrated and evaluated using observed data from the Northern China winter wheat region (NCWWR). This MLG-based model was employed to project flowering dates under different climate scenarios. The simulated flowering dates were then used to assess the stability of flowering dates under varying allelic combinations in projected climatic conditions. Our MLG-based model effectively simulated flowering dates, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.3 days, explaining approximately 88.5 % of the genotypic variation in flowering dates among 100 wheat genotypes. We found that, in comparison to the baseline climate, wheat-flowering-dates are expected to shift earlier within the target sowing window by approximately 11 and 14 days by 2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis revealed that wheat-flowering-date stability is likely to be further strengthened under projected climate scenarios due to early flowering trends. Ultimately, we demonstrate that the combination of Vrn and Ppd genes, rather than individual Vrn or Ppd genes, plays a critical role in wheat-flowering-date stability. Our results suggest that the combination of PpdD1a with winter genotypes carrying the vrn-D1 allele significantly contributes to flowering date stability under current and projected climate scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights for wheat breeders and producers under future climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38278166, year = {2024}, author = {The Lancet Microbe, }, title = {Treating the symptoms of climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Microbe}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2666-5247(24)00014-4}, pmid = {38278166}, issn = {2666-5247}, }
@article {pmid38277456, year = {2024}, author = {Zonneveld, KAF and Harper, K and Klügel, A and Chen, L and De Lange, G and Versteegh, GJM}, title = {Climate change, society, and pandemic disease in Roman Italy between 200 BCE and 600 CE.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {eadk1033}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.adk1033}, pmid = {38277456}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Records of past societies confronted with natural climate change can illuminate social responses to environmental stress and environment-disease connections, especially when locally constrained high-temporal resolution paleoclimate reconstructions are available. We present a temperature and precipitation reconstruction for ~200 BCE to ~600 CE, from a southern Italian marine sedimentary archive-the first high-resolution (~3 years) climate record from the heartland of the Roman Empire, stretching from the so-called Roman Climate Optimum to the Late Antique Little Ice Age. We document phases of instability and cooling from ~100 CE onward but more notably after ~130 CE. Pronounced cold phases between ~160 to 180 CE, ~245 to 275 CE, and after ~530 CE associate with pandemic disease, suggesting that climate stress interacted with social and biological variables. The importance of environment-disease dynamics in past civilizations underscores the need to incorporate health in risk assessments of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38276808, year = {2024}, author = {Quilty, S and Lal, A and Honan, B and Chateau, D and O'Donnell, E and Mills, J}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Aeromedical Retrieval Services in Remote Northern Australia: Planning for a Hotter Future.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph21010114}, pmid = {38276808}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {It is known that environmental heat is associated with increased morbidity manifesting as increasing demand on acute care health services including pre-hospital transport and emergency departments. These services play a vital role in emergency care, and in rural and remote locations, where resource capacity is limited, aeromedical and other retrieval services are a vital part of healthcare delivery. There is no research examining how heat impacts remote retrieval service delivery. The Northern Territory (NT) of Australia is characterised by very remote communities with limited acute healthcare capacities and is a region subject to regular extreme tropical heat. In this study, we examine the relationship between aeromedical retrievals and hot weather for all NT retrievals between February 2018 and December 2019. A regression analysis was performed on the number of retrievals by clinical reason for retrieval matched to the temperature on the day of retrieval. There was a statistically significant exposure response relationship with increasing retrievals of obstetric emergencies in hotter weather in the humid climate zone and surgical retrievals in the arid zone. Retrieval services appeared to be at capacity at all times of the year. Given that there are no obstetric services in remote communities and that obstetric emergencies are a higher triage category than other emergencies (i.e., more urgent), such an increase will impede overall retrieval service delivery in hot weather. Increasing surgical retrievals in the arid zone may reflect an increase in soft tissue infections occurring in overcrowded houses in the hotter months of the year. Given that retrieval services are at capacity throughout the year, any increase in demand caused by increasing environmental heat will have broad implications for service delivery as the climate warms. Planning for a hotter future must include building resilient communities by optimising local healthcare capacity and addressing housing and other socioeconomic inequities that amplify heat-related illness.}, }
@article {pmid38275724, year = {2023}, author = {Xiao, F and Liu, Q and Qin, Y}, title = {Predicting the Potential Distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron under Climate Change Scenarios Using Machine Learning of a Maximum Entropy Model.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology13010003}, pmid = {38275724}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Haloxylon ammodendron (H. ammodendron) is a second-class protected plant of national significance in China that is known for its growth in desert and semidesert regions, where it serves as a desert ecosystem guardian by playing a substantial role in maintaining ecosystem structure and function. The changing global climate has substantially altered the growth conditions for H. ammodendron. This study focuses on identifying the key variables influencing the distribution of H. ammodendron and determining their potential impact on future distribution. We employed the Maxent model to evaluate the current climate suitability for H. ammodendron distribution and to project its future changes across various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our findings indicate that precipitation during the warmest quarter and precipitation during the wettest month are the most influential variables affecting the potentially suitable habitats of H. ammodendron. The highly suitable habitat area for H. ammodendron currently covers approximately 489,800 km[2]. The Maxent model forecasts an expansion of highly suitable H. ammodendron habitat under all future SSP scenarios, with the extent of unsuitable areas increasing with greater global warming. The increased highly suitable habitats range from 40% (SSP585) to 80% (SSP126) by the 2070s (2060-2080). Furthermore, our results indicate a continued expansion of desertification areas due to global warming, highlighting the significant role of H. ammodendron in maintaining desert ecosystem stability. This study offers valuable insights into biodiversity preservation and ecological protection in the context of future climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid38273578, year = {2024}, author = {Losciale, R and Day, JC and Rasheed, MA and Heron, SF}, title = {The vulnerability of World Heritage seagrass habitats to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {e17113}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17113}, pmid = {38273578}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Seagrass is an important natural attribute of 28 World Heritage (WH) properties. These WH seagrass habitats provide a wide range of services to adjacent ecosystems and human communities, and are one of the largest natural carbon sinks on the planet. Climate change is considered the greatest and fastest-growing threat to natural WH properties and evidence of climate-related impacts on seagrass habitats has been growing. The main objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of WH seagrass habitats to location-specific key climate stressors. Quantitative surveys of seagrass experts and site managers were used to assess exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of WH seagrass habitats to climate stressors, following the Climate Vulnerability Index approach. Over half of WH seagrass habitats have high vulnerability to climate change, mainly from the long-term increase in sea-surface temperature and short-term marine heatwaves. Potential impacts from climate change and certainty scores associated with them were higher than reported by a similar survey-based study from 10 years prior, indicating a shift in stakeholder perspectives during the past decade. Additionally, seagrass experts' opinions on the cumulative impacts of climate and direct-anthropogenic stressors revealed that high temperature in combination with high suspended sediments, eutrophication and hypoxia is likely to provoke a synergistic cumulative (negative) impact (p < .05). A key component contributing to the high vulnerability assessments was the low adaptive capacity; however, discrepancies between adaptive capacity scores and qualitative responses suggest that managers of WH seagrass habitats might not be adequately equipped to respond to climate change impacts. This thematic assessment provides valuable information to help prioritize conservation actions, monitoring activities and research in WH seagrass habitats. It also demonstrates the utility of a systematic framework to evaluate the vulnerability of thematic groups of protected areas that share a specific attribute.}, }
@article {pmid38273577, year = {2024}, author = {Li, WB and Teng, Y and Zhang, MY and Shen, Y and Liu, JW and Qi, JW and Wang, XC and Wu, RF and Li, JH and Garber, PA and Li, M}, title = {Human activity and climate change accelerate the extinction risk to non-human primates in China.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {e17114}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17114}, pmid = {38273577}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2023YFF0805800//National Key Research and Development Projects of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China/ ; 3230015//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 31821001//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32201263//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; XDB31000000//Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; XDA23080000//Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 2022M720142//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Human activity and climate change affect biodiversity and cause species range shifts, contractions, and expansions. Globally, human activities and climate change have emerged as persistent threats to biodiversity, leading to approximately 68% of the ~522 primate species being threatened with extinction. Here, we used habitat suitability models and integrated data on human population density, gross domestic product (GDP), road construction, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the location of protected areas (PAs), and climate change to predict potential changes in the distributional range and richness of 26 China's primate species. Our results indicate that both PAs and NDVI have a positive impact on primate distributions. With increasing anthropogenic pressure, species' ranges were restricted to areas of high vegetation cover and in PAs surrounded by buffer zones of 2.7-4.5 km and a core area of PAs at least 0.1-0.5 km from the closest edge of the PA. Areas with a GDP below the Chinese national average of 100,000 yuan were found to be ecologically vulnerable, and this had a negative impact on primate distributions. Changes in temperature and precipitation were also significant contributors to a reduction in the range of primate species. Under the expected influence of climate change over the next 30-50 years, we found that highly suitable habitat for primates will continue to decrease and species will be restricted to smaller and more peripheral parts of their current range. Areas of high primate diversity are expected to lose from 3 to 7 species. We recommend that immediate action be taken, including expanding China's National Park Program, the Ecological Conservation Redline Program, and the Natural Forest Protection Program, along with a stronger national policy promoting alternative/sustainable livelihoods for people in the local communities adjacent to primate ranges, to offset the detrimental effects of anthropogenic activities and climate change on primate survivorship.}, }
@article {pmid38273565, year = {2024}, author = {Wei, L and Sanczuk, P and De Pauw, K and Caron, MM and Selvi, F and Hedwall, PO and Brunet, J and Cousins, SAO and Plue, J and Spicher, F and Gasperini, C and Iacopetti, G and Orczewska, A and Uria-Diez, J and Lenoir, J and Vangansbeke, P and De Frenne, P}, title = {Using warming tolerances to predict understory plant responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {e17064}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17064}, pmid = {38273565}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {FORMICA 757833/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Climate change is pushing species towards and potentially beyond their critical thermal limits. The extent to which species can cope with temperatures exceeding their critical thermal limits is still uncertain. To better assess species' responses to warming, we compute the warming tolerance (ΔTniche) as a thermal vulnerability index, using species' upper thermal limits (the temperature at the warm limit of their distribution range) minus the local habitat temperature actually experienced at a given location. This metric is useful to predict how much more warming species can tolerate before negative impacts are expected to occur. Here we set up a cross-continental transplant experiment involving five regions distributed along a latitudinal gradient across Europe (43° N-61° N). Transplant sites were located in dense and open forests stands, and at forest edges and in interiors. We estimated the warming tolerance for 12 understory plant species common in European temperate forests. During 3 years, we examined the effects of the warming tolerance of each species across all transplanted locations on local plant performance, in terms of survival, height, ground cover, flowering probabilities and flower number. We found that the warming tolerance (ΔTniche) of the 12 studied understory species was significantly different across Europe and varied by up to 8°C. In general, ΔTniche were smaller (less positive) towards the forest edge and in open stands. Plant performance (growth and reproduction) increased with increasing ΔTniche across all 12 species. Our study demonstrated that ΔTniche of understory plant species varied with macroclimatic differences among regions across Europe, as well as in response to forest microclimates, albeit to a lesser extent. Our findings support the hypothesis that plant performance across species decreases in terms of growth and reproduction as local temperature conditions reach or exceed the warm limit of the focal species.}, }
@article {pmid38273561, year = {2024}, author = {Silberberger, MJ and Koziorowska-Makuch, K and Reiss, H and Kędra, M}, title = {Trophic niches of macrobenthos: Latitudinal variation indicates climate change impact on ecosystem functioning.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {e17100}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17100}, pmid = {38273561}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2019/35/D/NZ8/01282//Narodowe Centrum Nauki/ ; }, abstract = {Benthic food-web structure and organic matter (OM) utilization are important for marine ecosystem functioning. In response to environmental changes related to the ongoing climate change, however, many benthic species are shifting their ranges to colder regions, which may lead to altered community composition, but it remains largely unknown how it will affect ecosystem functioning. Here, stable isotope analysis was used to study benthic OM utilization and food-web structure and to assess whether their spatial patterns reflect today's community differentiation among biogeographic regions and depth zones. Benthic fauna and OM mixtures were collected from two depth zones (100-150 m vs. 200-250 m) within a temperate, two sub-Arctic, and an Arctic fjord along a latitudinal gradient (59-78° N) that was used as a space-for-time substitution to assess the impact of climate change. Our results showed that Arctic and temperate communities are functionally different. Arctic communities were characterized by a strong resource partitioning among different feeding types, irrespective of depth zone. In contrast, all feeding types in temperate communities seemed to rely on sedimentary OM. The sub-Arctic presented a transition zone. In the sub-Arctic, shallower communities resembled Arctic communities, suggesting a functional transition between temperate and sub-Arctic regions. Deeper sub-Arctic communities resembled temperate communities, suggesting a functional transition between the sub-Arctic and Arctic regions. This implies that the regions north of the current transitions (deep Arctic and shallow sub-Arctic) are most likely to experience functional changes related to an altered OM utilization in benthic food webs in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38273545, year = {2024}, author = {Carreira, C and Joyce, PWS and Morán, XAG and Carvalho, S and Falkenberg, L and Lønborg, C}, title = {Too hot to handle? An urgent need to understand climate change impacts on the biogeochemistry of tropical coastal waters.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {e17074}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17074}, pmid = {38273545}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {1127-00033B//Danmarks Frie Forskningsfond/ ; }, abstract = {Tropical regions contain ecologically and socio-economically important habitats, and are home to about 3.8 billion people, many of which directly depend on tropical coastal waters for their well-being. At the basis of these ecosystems are biogeochemical processes. Climate change is expected to have a greater impact in the tropics compared to temperate regions because of the relatively stable environmental conditions found there. However, it was surprising to find only 660 research articles published focusing on the impact of climate change on the biogeochemistry of coastal tropical waters compared to 4823 for temperate waters. In this perspective, we highlight important topics in need of further research. Specifically, we suggest that in tropical regions compared to temperate counterparts climate change stressors will be experienced differently, that organisms have a lower acclimation capacity, and that long-term baseline biogeochemical datasets useful for quantifying future changes are lacking. The low number of research papers on the impacts of climate change in coastal tropical regions is likely due to a mix of reasons including limited resources for research and limited number of long time series in many developing tropical countries. Finally, we propose some action points that we hope will stimulate more studies in tropical coastal waters.}, }
@article {pmid38273531, year = {2024}, author = {Sierra, CA and Ahrens, B and Bolinder, MA and Braakhekke, MC and von Fromm, S and Kätterer, T and Luo, Z and Parvin, N and Wang, G}, title = {Carbon sequestration in the subsoil and the time required to stabilize carbon for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {e17153}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17153}, pmid = {38273531}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {862695//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; //Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences/ ; //Max Planck Society/ ; //International Max Planck Research School for Global Biogeochemical Cycles/ ; }, abstract = {Soils store large quantities of carbon in the subsoil (below 0.2 m depth) that is generally old and believed to be stabilized over centuries to millennia, which suggests that subsoil carbon sequestration (CS) can be used as a strategy for climate change mitigation. In this article, we review the main biophysical processes that contribute to carbon storage in subsoil and the main mathematical models used to represent these processes. Our guiding objective is to review whether a process understanding of soil carbon movement in the vertical profile can help us to assess carbon storage and persistence at timescales relevant for climate change mitigation. Bioturbation, liquid phase transport, belowground carbon inputs, mineral association, and microbial activity are the main processes contributing to the formation of soil carbon profiles, and these processes are represented in models using the diffusion-advection-reaction paradigm. Based on simulation examples and measurements from carbon and radiocarbon profiles across biomes, we found that advective and diffusive transport may only play a secondary role in the formation of soil carbon profiles. The difference between vertical root inputs and decomposition seems to play a primary role in determining the shape of carbon change with depth. Using the transit time of carbon to assess the timescales of carbon storage of new inputs, we show that only small quantities of new carbon inputs travel through the profile and can be stabilized for time horizons longer than 50 years, implying that activities that promote CS in the subsoil must take into consideration the very small quantities that can be stabilized in the long term.}, }
@article {pmid38273525, year = {2024}, author = {Coulon, N and Elliott, S and Teichert, N and Auber, A and McLean, M and Barreau, T and Feunteun, E and Carpentier, A}, title = {Northeast Atlantic elasmobranch community on the move: Functional reorganization in response to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {e17157}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17157}, pmid = {38273525}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Mus&#xe9;um National d'Histoire Naturelle/ ; }, abstract = {While spatial distribution shifts have been documented in many marine fishes under global change, the responses of elasmobranchs have rarely been studied, which may have led to an underestimation of their potential additional threats. Given their irreplaceable role in ecosystems and their high extinction risk, we used a 24-year time series (1997-2020) of scientific bottom trawl surveys to examine the effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of nine elasmobranch species within Northeast Atlantic waters. Using a hierarchical modeling of species communities, belonging to the joint species distribution models, we found that suitable habitats for four species increased on average by a factor of 1.6 and, for six species, shifted north-eastwards and/or to deeper waters over the past two decades. By integrating species traits, we showed changes in habitat suitability led to changes in the elasmobranchs trait composition. Moreover, communities shifted to deeper waters and their mean trophic level decreased. We also note an increase in the mean community size at maturity concurrent with a decrease in fecundity. Because skates and sharks are functionally unique and dangerously vulnerable to both climate change and fishing, we advocate for urgent considerations of species traits in management measures. Their use would make it better to identify species whose loss could have irreversible impacts in face of the myriad of anthropogenic threats.}, }
@article {pmid38273519, year = {2024}, author = {Nelson, GC and Vanos, J and Havenith, G and Jay, O and Ebi, KL and Hijmans, RJ}, title = {Global reductions in manual agricultural work capacity due to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {e17142}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17142}, pmid = {38273519}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Manual outdoor work is essential in many agricultural systems. Climate change will make such work more stressful in many regions due to heat exposure. The physical work capacity metric (PWC) is a physiologically based approach that estimates an individual's work capacity relative to an environment without any heat stress. We computed PWC under recent past and potential future climate conditions. Daily values were computed from five earth system models for three emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and three time periods: 1991-2010 (recent past), 2041-2060 (mid-century) and 2081-2100 (end-century). Average daily PWC values were aggregated for the entire year, the growing season, and the warmest 90-day period of the year. Under recent past climate conditions, the growing season PWC was below 0.86 (86% of full work capacity) on half the current global cropland. With end-century/SSP5-8.5 thermal conditions this value was reduced to 0.7, with most affected crop-growing regions in Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Africa, and northern South America. Average growing season PWC could falls below 0.4 in some important food production regions such as the Indo-Gangetic plains in Pakistan and India. End-century PWC reductions were substantially greater than mid-century reductions. This paper assesses two potential adaptions-reducing direct solar radiation impacts with shade or working at night and reducing the need for hard physical labor with increased mechanization. Removing the effect of direct solar radiation impacts improved PWC values by 0.05 to 0.10 in the hottest periods and regions. Adding mechanization to increase horsepower (HP) per hectare to levels similar to those in some higher income countries would require a 22% increase in global HP availability with Sub-Saharan Africa needing the most. There may be scope for shifting to less labor-intensive crops or those with labor peaks in cooler periods or shift work to early morning.}, }
@article {pmid38273513, year = {2024}, author = {Wei, J and Xu, F and Cole, EF and Sheldon, BC and de Boer, WF and Wielstra, B and Fu, H and Gong, P and Si, Y}, title = {Spatially heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology induced by climate change threaten the integrity of the avian migration network.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {e17148}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17148}, pmid = {38273513}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {201906210103//China Scholarship Council/ ; 41471347//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 42301055//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Phenological responses to climate change frequently vary among trophic levels, which can result in increasing asynchrony between the peak energy requirements of consumers and the availability of resources. Migratory birds use multiple habitats with seasonal food resources along migration flyways. Spatially heterogeneous climate change could cause the phenology of food availability along the migration flyway to become desynchronized. Such heterogeneous shifts in food phenology could pose a challenge to migratory birds by reducing their opportunity for food availability along the migration path and consequently influencing their survival and reproduction. We develop a novel graph-based approach to quantify this problem and deploy it to evaluate the condition of the heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology for 16 migratory herbivorous waterfowl species in Asia. We show that climate change-induced heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology could cause a 12% loss of migration network integrity on average across all study species. Species that winter at relatively lower latitudes are subjected to a higher loss of integrity in their migration network. These findings highlight the susceptibility of migratory species to climate change. Our proposed methodological framework could be applied to migratory species in general to yield an accurate assessment of the exposure under climate change and help to identify actions for biodiversity conservation in the face of climate-related risks.}, }
@article {pmid38273510, year = {2024}, author = {Shen, X and Shen, M and Wu, C and Peñuelas, J and Ciais, P and Zhang, J and Freeman, C and Palmer, PI and Liu, B and Henderson, M and Song, Z and Sun, S and Lu, X and Jiang, M}, title = {Critical role of water conditions in the responses of autumn phenology of marsh wetlands to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {e17097}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17097}, pmid = {38273510}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {ZDBS-LY-7019//Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 42230516//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41971065//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 20210101104JC//Natural Science Foundation of Jilin Province/ ; TED2021-132627 B-I00//Spanish Government grant/ ; 2019235//Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau, housing 20% of China's wetlands, plays a vital role in the regional carbon cycle. Examining the phenological dynamics of wetland vegetation in response to climate change is crucial for understanding its impact on the ecosystem. Despite this importance, the specific effects of climate change on wetland vegetation phenology in this region remain uncertain. In this study, we investigated the influence of climate change on the end of the growing season (EOS) of marsh wetland vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau, utilizing satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and observational climate data. We observed that the regionally averaged EOS of marsh vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau was significantly (p < .05) delayed by 4.10 days/decade from 2001 to 2020. Warming preseason temperatures were found to be the primary driver behind the delay in the EOS of marsh vegetation, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation showed no significant impact. Interestingly, the responses of EOS to climate change varied spatially across the plateau, indicating a regulatory role for hydrological conditions in marsh phenology. In the humid and cold central regions, preseason daytime warming significantly delayed the EOS. However, areas with lower soil moisture exhibited a weaker or reversed delay effect, suggesting complex interplays between temperature, soil moisture, and EOS. Notably, in the arid southwestern regions of the plateau, increased preseason rainfall directly delayed the EOS, while higher daytime temperatures advanced it. Our results emphasize the critical role of hydrological conditions, specifically soil moisture, in shaping marsh EOS responses in different regions. Our findings underscore the need to incorporate hydrological factors into terrestrial ecosystem models, particularly in cold and dry regions, for accurate predictions of marsh vegetation phenological responses to climate change. This understanding is vital for informed conservation and management strategies in the face of current and future climate challenges.}, }
@article {pmid38273491, year = {2024}, author = {Qian, H and Wang, Y}, title = {Predicting microbial adaptability to climate change in the Anthropocene.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {e17122}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17122}, pmid = {38273491}, issn = {1365-2486}, }
@article {pmid38273487, year = {2024}, author = {Wiens, JJ and Zelinka, J}, title = {How many species will Earth lose to climate change?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {e17125}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17125}, pmid = {38273487}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid38272055, year = {2024}, author = {den Exter, A}, title = {Bringing Climate Change to Strasbourg. The Convention and Healthy Environment Claims.}, journal = {European journal of health law}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-18}, doi = {10.1163/15718093-bja10119}, pmid = {38272055}, issn = {1571-8093}, abstract = {Climate change profoundly impacts all aspects of human life, including health. International fora and nation States recognise the importance of urgently cutting greenhouse gas emissions as a primary cause of global warming. States' commitment to alter climate change has resulted in several treaty documents referring explicitly to human rights obligations. But what exactly are States' obligations under climate change treaty law and other human rights treaties? And what is the judiciary's role when confronted with the right to health violations and systemic deficiencies relating to climate change? Can climate change litigation give individual citizens a remedy to right to health violations and reduce the impact of climate change?}, }
@article {pmid38271163, year = {2024}, author = {Schuster, R and Gregory, K and Moller, T and Koesten, L}, title = {"Being Simple on Complex Issues" - Accounts on Visual Data Communication about Climate Change.}, journal = {IEEE transactions on visualization and computer graphics}, volume = {PP}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1109/TVCG.2024.3352282}, pmid = {38271163}, issn = {1941-0506}, abstract = {Data visualizations play a critical role in both communicating scientific evidence about climate change and in stimulating engagement and action. To investigate how visualizations can be better utilized to communicate the complexities of climate change to different audiences, we conducted interviews with 17 experts in the fields of climate change, data visualization, and science communication, as well as with 12 laypersons. Besides questions about climate change communication and various aspects of data visualizations, we also asked participants to share what they think is the main takeaway message for two exemplary climate change data visualizations. Through a thematic analysis, we observe differences regarding the included contents, the length and abstraction of messages, and the sensemaking process between and among the participant groups. On average, experts formulated shorter and more abstract messages, often referring to higher-level conclusions rather than specific details. We use our findings to reflect on design decisions for creating more effective visualizations, particularly in news media sources geared toward lay audiences. We hereby discuss the adaption of contents according to the needs of the audience, the trade-off between simplification and accuracy, as well as techniques to make a visualization attractive.}, }
@article {pmid38270699, year = {2024}, author = {Singh, S and Singh, R and Priyadarsini, S and Ola, AL}, title = {Genomics empowering conservation action and improvement of celery in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Planta}, volume = {259}, number = {2}, pages = {42}, pmid = {38270699}, issn = {1432-2048}, abstract = {Integration of genomic approaches like whole genome sequencing, functional genomics, evolutionary genomics, and CRISPR/Cas9-based genome editing has accelerated the improvement of crop plants including leafy vegetables like celery in the face of climate change. The anthropogenic climate change is a real peril to the existence of life forms on our planet, including human and plant life. Climate change is predicted to be a significant threat to biodiversity and food security in the coming decades and is rapidly transforming global farming systems. To avoid the ghastly future in the face of climate change, the elucidation of shifts in the geographical range of plant species, species adaptation, and evolution is necessary for plant scientists to develop climate-resilient strategies. In the post-genomics era, the increasing availability of genomic resources and integration of multifaceted genomics elements is empowering biodiversity conservation action, restoration efforts, and identification of genomic regions adaptive to climate change. Genomics has accelerated the true characterization of crop wild relatives, genomic variations, and the development of climate-resilient varieties to ensure food security for 10 billion people by 2050. In this review, we have summarized the applications of multifaceted genomic tools, like conservation genomics, whole genome sequencing, functional genomics, genome editing, pangenomics, in the conservation and adaptation of plant species with a focus on celery, an aromatic and medicinal Apiaceae vegetable. We focus on how conservation scientists can utilize genomics and genomic data in conservation and improvement.}, }
@article {pmid38268967, year = {2023}, author = {Smith, RL and Terriquez, J and Thoma, E and Gonzalez, MA and Johnson, D and Buenning, H and Kremer, F and Carpenter, JD and Clark, NN}, title = {Climate Change, Extreme Events, and Their Potential Effects on Aboveground Storage Tanks.}, journal = {EM (Pittsburgh, Pa.)}, volume = {2023}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38268967}, issn = {1088-9981}, }
@article {pmid38268699, year = {2024}, author = {Tabo, Z and Kalinda, C and Breuer, L and Albrecht, C}, title = {Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics.}, journal = {Infectious Disease Modelling}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {158-176}, pmid = {38268699}, issn = {2468-0427}, abstract = {Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic worms, poses a major public health challenge in economically disadvantaged regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate factors, such as temperature and rainfall patterns, play a crucial role in the transmission dynamics of the disease. This study presents a deterministic model that aims to evaluate the temporal and seasonal transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis by examining the influence of temperature and rainfall over time. Equilibrium states are examined to ascertain their existence and stability employing the center manifold theory, while the basic reproduction number is calculated using the next-generation technique. To validate the model's applicability, demographic and climatological data from Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania, which are endemic East African countries situated in the tropical region, are utilized as a case study region. The findings of this study provide evidence that the transmission of schistosomiasis in human populations is significantly influenced by seasonal and monthly variations, with incidence rates varying across countries depending on the frequency of temperature and rainfall. Consequently, the region is marked by both schistosomiasis emergencies and re-emergences. Specifically, it is observed that monthly mean temperatures within the range of 22-27 °C create favorable conditions for the development of schistosomiasis and have a positive impact on the reproduction numbers. On the other hand, monthly maximum temperatures ranging from 27 to 33 °C have an adverse effect on transmission. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, it is projected that by the year 2050, factors such as the recruitment rate of snails, the presence of parasite egg-containing stools, and the rate of miracidia shedding per parasite egg will contribute significantly to the occurrence and control of schistosomiasis infections. This study highlights the significant influence of seasonal and monthly variations, driven by temperature and rainfall patterns, on the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis. These findings underscore the importance of considering climate factors in the control and prevention strategies of schistosomiasis. Additionally, the projected impact of various factors on schistosomiasis infections by 2050 emphasizes the need for proactive measures to mitigate the disease's impact on vulnerable populations. Overall, this research provides valuable insights to anticipate future challenges and devise adaptive measures to address schistosomiasis transmission patterns.}, }
@article {pmid38268613, year = {2024}, author = {Gule, TT and Hailu, BT and Lemma, B}, title = {The Ripple Effect of Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts on Water Quality and Hydrology in Addis Ababa City (Akaki Catchment).}, journal = {Scientifica}, volume = {2024}, number = {}, pages = {8824622}, pmid = {38268613}, issn = {2090-908X}, abstract = {This research aimed to evaluate the effects of climate change on the hydrology and water quality in the Akaki catchment, which provides water to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This was performed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model and an ensemble of four global climate models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) emission scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The climate data were downscaled and bias-corrected using the CMhyd tool and calibrated and validated using the SWAT-CUP software package. Change points and patterns in annual rainfall and temperature were determined using the homogeneity test and Mann-Kendell trend test. Water quality data were obtained from Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority (AAWSA), and more samples were taken and analyzed in accordance with APHA recommended procedures. The SWAT model output was then used to assess the impacts of climate change on hydrological components and water quality. Rainfall increased by 19.39 mm/year under SSP2-4.5 and 12.8 mm/year under SSP8.5. Maximum temperature increased by 0.03°C/yr for SSP2-4.5 and 0.04°C/yr for SSP5-8.5. Minimum temperature increased by 0.03°C/yr under SSP2-4.5 and 0.07°C/yr under SSP5-8.5. This warming will augment the evapotranspiration rate which in turn will have a negative impact on the freshwater availability. Streamflow will increase by 5% under SSP2-4.5 and 9.49% under SSP5-85 which may increase sporadic flooding events. Climate change is expected to contribute to the deterioration of water quality shown by 61%, 36%, 79%, 115%, and 70% increased ammonia, chlorophyll-a, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphorus loadings, respectively, from 2022. The increase in temperature results in increases in nutrient loading and a decrease in dissolved oxygen. Overall, this research demonstrated the vulnerability of the catchment to climate change. The findings of this research can offer vital knowledge to policymakers on possible strategies for the sustainable management of water.}, }
@article {pmid38266897, year = {2024}, author = {Musarrat Anita, W and Uttajug, A and Tesoro Seposo, X and Sudo, K and Nakata, M and Takemura, T and Takano, H and Fujiwara, T and Ueda, K}, title = {Interplay of climate Change and air pollution- projection of the under-5 mortality attributable to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) in South Asia.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118292}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118292}, pmid = {38266897}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is a leading health risk factor for children under- 5 years, especially in developing countries. South Asia is a PM2.5 hotspot, where climate change, a potential factor affecting PM2.5 pollution, adds a major challenge. However, limited evidence is available on under-5 mortality attributable to PM2.5 under different climate change scenarios. This study aimed to project under-5 mortality attributable to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 under seven air pollution and climate change mitigation scenarios in South Asia. We used a concentration-risk function obtained from a previous review to project under-5 mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5. With a theoretical minimum risk exposure level of 2.4 μg/m[3], this risk function was linked to gridded annual PM2.5 concentrations from atmospheric modeling to project under-5 mortality from 2010 to 2049 under different climate change mitigation scenarios. The scenarios were developed from the Aim/Endues global model based on end-of-pipe (removing the emission of air pollutants at the source, EoP) and 2 °C target measures. Our results showed that, in 2010-2014, about 306.8 thousand under-5 deaths attributable to PM2.5 occurred in South Asia under the Reference (business as usual) scenario. The number of deaths was projected to increase in 2045-2049 by 36.6% under the same scenario and 7.7% under the scenario where EoP measures would be partially implemented by developing countries (EoPmid), and was projected to decrease under other scenarios, with the most significant decrease (81.2%) under the scenario where EoP measures would be fully enhanced by all countries along with the measures to achieve 2 °C target (EoPmaxCCSBLD) across South Asia. Country-specific projections of under-5 mortality varied by country. The current emission control strategy would not be sufficient to reduce the number of deaths in South Asia. Robust climate change mitigation and air pollution control policy implementation is required.}, }
@article {pmid38265114, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, SP and Stefanovic, N and Orfali, RL and Aoki, V and Brown, SJ and Dhar, S and Eichenfield, LF and Flohr, C and Ha, A and Mora, C and Murase, JE and Rosenbach, M and Srinivas, SM and Thyssen, JP and Wei, ML and Irvine, AD and Abuabara, K}, title = {Impact of climate change on atopic dermatitis: A review by the International Eczema Council.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/all.16007}, pmid = {38265114}, issn = {1398-9995}, abstract = {Atopic dermatitis (AD), the most burdensome skin condition worldwide, is influenced by climatic factors and air pollution; however, the impact of increasing climatic hazards on AD remains poorly characterized. Leveraging an existing framework for 10 climatic hazards related to greenhouse gas emissions, we identified 18 studies with evidence for an impact on AD through a systematic search. Most climatic hazards had evidence for aggravation of AD the impact ranged from direct effects like particulate matter-induced AD exacerbations from wildfires to the potential for indirect effects like drought-induced food insecurity and migration. We then created maps comparing the past, present, and future projected burden of climatic hazards to global AD prevalence data. Data are lacking, especially from those regions most likely to experience more climatic hazards. We highlight gaps important for future research: understanding the synergistic impacts of climatic hazards on AD, long-term disease activity, the differential impact on vulnerable populations, and how basic mechanisms explain population-level trends.}, }
@article {pmid38264966, year = {2024}, author = {Brady Bates, O and Freeman, N}, title = {Comment on: Climate change is a health issue. The general practitioner and planetary health by Stoffers &amp; Muris 2023.}, journal = {The European journal of general practice}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {2298332}, doi = {10.1080/13814788.2023.2298332}, pmid = {38264966}, issn = {1751-1402}, }
@article {pmid38264538, year = {2023}, author = {Sahu, SK and Chen, L and Liu, S and Xing, J and Mathur, R}, title = {Effect of Future Climate Change on Stratosphere-to-Troposphere-Exchange Driven Ozone in the Northern Hemisphere.}, journal = {Aerosol and air quality research}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {1-15}, pmid = {38264538}, issn = {1680-8584}, abstract = {Future estimates of atmospheric pollutant concentrations serve as critical information for policy makers to formulate current policy indicators to achieve future targets. Tropospheric burden of O3 is modulated not only by anthropogenic and natural precursor emissions, but also by the downward transport of O3 associated with stratosphere to troposphere exchange (STE). Hence changes in the estimates of STE and its contributions are key to understand the nature and intensity of future ground level O3 concentrations. The difference in simulated O3 mixing ratios with and without the O3-Potential Vorticity (PV) parameterization scheme is used to represent the model estimated influence of STE on tropospheric O3 distributions. Though STE contributions remain constant in Northern hemisphere as a whole, regional differences exist with Europe (EUR) registering increased STE contribution in both spring and winter while Eastern China (ECH) reporting increased contribution in spring in 2050 (RCP8.5) as compared to 2015. Importance of climate change can be deduced from the fact that ECH and EUR recorded increased STE contribution to O3 in RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Comparison of STE and non-STE meteorological process contributions to O3 due to climate change revealed that contributions of non-STE processes were highest in summer while STE contributions were highest in winter. EUR reported highest STE contribution while ECH reported highest non-STE contribution. None of the 3 regions show consistent low STE contribution due to future climate change (< 50%) in all seasons indicating the significance of STE to ground level O3.}, }
@article {pmid38264336, year = {2024}, author = {Fang, HQ and Zhang, PF and Xu, SW and Xu, T and He, B and Wang, E and Dong, CW and Yang, QS}, title = {The ecological suitability area of Cirsium lineare (Thunb.) Sch.-Bip. under future climate change in China based on MaxEnt modeling.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e10848}, pmid = {38264336}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Many kinds of medicinal ingredients occur in Cirsium lineare that have good clinical efficacy, conferring on this species its high medicinal development value. However, with a rapidly changing global climate, it is increasingly imperative to study the factors affecting the habitat distribution and survival of species. We predicted the current and future distribution areas of suitable habitats for C. lineare, analyzed the importance of environmental variables in influencing habitat shifts, and described the alterations to suitable habitats of C. lineare in different periods (modern, 2050s, and 2070s) and scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The results show that, under the current climate, the total suitable area of C. lineare is about 2,220,900 km[2], of which the highly suitable portion amounts to ca. 292,600 km[2]. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, and mean daily temperature range are the chief environmental variables affecting the distribution of habitat for C. lineare. In the same period, with rising greenhouse gas emission concentrations, the total suitable area will increase. In general, under future climate change, the suitable habitat for C. lineare will gradually migrate to the west and north, and its total suitable area will also expand. The results of this experiment can be used for the conservation and management of the wild resources of C. lineare. We can choose suitable growth areas to protect the medicinal resources of C. lineare through in situ conservation and artificial breeding.}, }
@article {pmid38264027, year = {2023}, author = {Li, J and Deng, C and Duan, G and Wang, Z and Zhang, Y and Fan, G}, title = {Potentially suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1279019}, pmid = {38264027}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Goji berry (Lycium barbarum L.) is a famous edible and medicinal herb worldwide with considerable consumption. The recent cultivation of goji berries in the Daodi region was seriously reduced due to increased production costs and the influence of policy on preventing nongrain use of arable land in China. Consequently, production of Daodi goji berry was insufficient to meet market demands for high-quality medicinal materials. Searching for regions similar to the Daodi region was necessary.<br><br>METHODS: The MaxEnt model was used to predicted the current and future potential regions suitable for goji berry in China based on the environmental characteristics of the Daodi region (including Zhongning County of Zhongwei prefecture-level city, and its surroundings), and the ArcGIS software was used to analyze the changes in its suitable region.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that when the parameters were FC = LQHP and RM = 2.1, the MaxEnt model was optimal, and the AUC and TSS values were greater than 0.90. The mean temperature and precipitation of the coldest quarter were the most critical variables shaping the distribution of Daodi goji berries. Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the Daodi goji berry were 45,973.88 km[2], accounting for 0.48% of China's land area, which were concentrated in the central and western Ningxia Province (22,589.42 km[2]), and the central region of Gansu Province (18,787.07 km[2]) bordering western Ningxia. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was higher than that under current climate conditions and reached the maximum under RCP 6.0 (91,256.42 km[2]) in the 2050s and RCP 8.5 (82,459.17 km[2]) in the 2070s. The expansion regions were mainly distributed in the northeast of the current suitable ranges, and the distributional centroids were mainly shifted to the northeast. The moderately and highly suitable overlapping habitats were mainly distributed in Baiyin (7,241.75 km[2]), Zhongwei (6,757.81 km[2]), and Wuzhong (5, 236.87 km[2]) prefecture-level cities.<br><br>DISCUSSION: In this stduy, MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to predict and analyze the suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change. Our results indicate that climate warming is conducive to cultivating Daodi goji berry and will not cause a shift in the Daodi region. The goji berry produced in Baiyin could be used to satisfy the demand for high-quality medicinal materials. This study addresses the insufficient supply and guides the cultivation of Daodi goji berry.}, }
@article {pmid38263390, year = {2024}, author = {Cordero, RR and Feron, S and Damiani, A and Carrasco, J and Karas, C and Wang, C and Kraamwinkel, CT and Beaulieu, A}, title = {Extreme fire weather in Chile driven by climate change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1974}, pmid = {38263390}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {ACT210046//Agencia Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n y Desarrollo/ ; }, abstract = {A string of fierce fires broke out in Chile in the austral summer 2023, just six years after the record-breaking 2017 fire season. Favored by extreme weather conditions, fire activity has dramatically risen in recent years in this Andean country. A total of 1.7 million ha. burned during the last decade, tripling figures of the prior decade. Six of the seven most destructive fire seasons on record occurred since 2014. Here, we analyze the progression during the last two decades of the weather conditions associated with increased fire risk in Central Chile (30°-39° S). Fire weather conditions (including high temperatures, low humidity, dryness, and strong winds) increase the potential for wildfires, once ignited, to rapidly spread. We show that the concurrence of El Niño and climate-fueled droughts and heatwaves boost the local fire risk and have decisively contributed to the intense fire activity recently seen in Central Chile. Our results also suggest that the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean variability modulates the seasonal fire weather in the country, driving in turn the interannual fire activity. The signature of the warm anomalies in the Niño 1 + 2 region (0°-10° S, 90° W-80° W) is apparent on the burned area records seen in Central Chile in 2017 and 2023.}, }
@article {pmid38263298, year = {2024}, author = {Evans, M}, title = {Coping with climate change could be a matter of what building you're in.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {625}, number = {7996}, pages = {633}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-03934-2}, pmid = {38263298}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38263163, year = {2024}, author = {Obringer, R and Nateghi, R and Knee, J and Madani, K and Kumar, R}, title = {Urban water and electricity demand data for understanding climate change impacts on the water-energy nexus.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {108}, pmid = {38263163}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {1832688//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1826161//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {As the climate crisis intensifies, it is becoming increasingly important to conduct research aimed at fully understanding the climate change impacts on various infrastructure systems. In particular, the water-electricity demand nexus is a growing area of focus. However, research on the water-electricity demand nexus requires the use of demand data, which can be difficult to obtain, especially across large spatial extents. Here, we present a dataset containing over a decade (2007-2018) of monthly water and electricity consumption data for 46 major US cities (2018 population >250,000). Additionally, we include pre-processed climate data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to supplement studies on the relationship between the water-electricity demand nexus and the local climate. This data can be used for a number of studies that require water and/or electricity demand data across long time frames and large spatial extents. The data can also be used to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on the water-electricity demand nexus by leveraging the relationship between the observed values.}, }
@article {pmid38262229, year = {2024}, author = {Watson, TPG and Tong, M and Bailie, J and Ekanayake, K and Bailie, RS}, title = {Relationship between climate change and skin cancer and implications for prevention and management: a scoping review.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {227}, number = {}, pages = {243-249}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2023.12.003}, pmid = {38262229}, issn = {1476-5616}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore the published research on the relationship between climate change and skin cancer and the implications for prevention, management and further research.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: Scoping review.<br><br>METHODS: This scoping review following JBI methodology reviewed English articles identified in searches of MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science and Scopus on 14 April 2023. The screening of articles was completed by two independent reviewers. Data were extracted by a single reviewer and checked by another. A causal pathway diagram was iteratively developed throughout the review and was used to categorise the findings.<br><br>RESULTS: The search identified 1376 papers, of which 45 were included in the final review. Nine papers reported primary research, and 36 papers were reviews, perspectives, commentaries, editorials, or essays. The papers examined climate change influencing behaviours related to ultraviolet exposure (30 papers), ambient temperature (21 papers) and air pollution (five papers) as possible risk factors; occupational, rural, and contextual factors affecting skin cancer (11 papers); and prevention and access to health care in the context of climate change (seven papers). Most papers were published in journals in subject areas other than health.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This review identified ultraviolet radiation, occupation, rising temperature, individual behaviour and air pollution as possible influences on skin cancer rates. Furthermore, it highlights the complexity and uncertainties in the relationship between climate change and skin cancer and the need for further research on this relationship, including primary epidemiological research and reviews that follow recognised review guidelines and include assessment of health services and social determinants in the causal pathways of this relationship.}, }
@article {pmid38261913, year = {2024}, author = {Ullah, S and Khattak, SR and Ullah, R and Fayaz, M and Han, H and Yoo, S and Ariza-Montes, A and Raposo, A}, title = {Unveiling the global nexus: Pandemic fear, government responses, and climate change-an empirical study.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {e23815}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e23815}, pmid = {38261913}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study examined the relationships between pandemic fear, government responses, and climate change using a time-series dataset from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020. By employing an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the results revealed that pandemic fear significantly impacts climate change, while government responses to COVID-19 negatively influence climate change in the long run. Climate change and government responses significantly positively affect pandemic fear in the long run. Moreover, we found a bidirectional causality between government responses and climate change, unidirectional causality from government responses to pandemic fear, and no Granger causality between pandemic fear and climate change. Our findings have some important policy implications. Governments must encourage coordination, enhance crisis responses, and consider revising economic metrics to maintain environmental sustainability. The COVID-19 experience can inform strategies for reducing CO2 emissions and investing in green economies and healthcare to prepare for future challenges.}, }
@article {pmid38260935, year = {2024}, author = {de Melo Viríssimo, F and Stainforth, DA and Bröcker, J}, title = {The evolution of a non-autonomous chaotic system under non-periodic forcing: A climate change example.}, journal = {Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1063/5.0180870}, pmid = {38260935}, issn = {1089-7682}, abstract = {In this article, we approach the problem of measuring and interpreting the mid-term climate of a non-autonomous chaotic dynamical system in the context of climate modeling. To do so, we use a low-dimensional, conceptual model for the Earth system with different timescales of variability and subjected to non-periodic external forcing. We introduce the concepts of an evolution set and its distribution, which are dependent on the starting state of the system, and explore their links to different types of initial condition uncertainty and the rate of external forcing. We define the convergence time as the time that it takes for the evolution distribution of one of the dependent variables to lose memory of its initial condition. We suspect a connection between convergence times and the classical concept of mixing times, but the precise nature of this connection needs to be explored. These results have implications for the design of influential climate and Earth system model ensembles and raise a number of issues of mathematical interest.}, }
@article {pmid38259528, year = {2023}, author = {Newberry Le Vay, J and Cunningham, A and Soul, L and Dave, H and Hoath, L and Lawrance, EL}, title = {Integrating mental health into climate change education to inspire climate action while safeguarding mental health.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1298623}, pmid = {38259528}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest threat humanity faces, and puts at risk the mental health and wellbeing of children and young people. Climate change education must equip children and young people with the knowledge, skills and resilience to live in an uncertain future, sustainably take relevant climate action and work in climate careers. As attention on climate change education grows, this is a critical moment for the mental health community to ensure mental health and wellbeing considerations are embedded. Critically, appropriate integration of mental health can enable these very necessary goals of equipping children and young people to live and work in a future where climate change looms large. This paper explores why promoting good mental health and wellbeing and building psychological resilience can help achieve climate change education outcomes, and why not doing so risks harming children and young people's mental health. It also explores how integrating discussions about emotions, mental health, and coping strategies within climate change education can be a route into wider discussions about mental health, to support children and young people in the context of rising mental health needs. Learning from an existing approach to promoting good mental health and wellbeing in schools (the 'whole school approach') provides the opportunity to explore one avenue through which such an integrated approach could be implemented in practice. Identifying appropriate mechanisms to integrate mental health into climate change education will require co-design and research with educators and young people, and addressing systemic barriers facing the schools sector.}, }
@article {pmid38257877, year = {2023}, author = {Deshpande, G and Beetch, JE and Heller, JG and Naqvi, OH and Kuhn, KG}, title = {Assessing the Influence of Climate Change and Environmental Factors on the Top Tick-Borne Diseases in the United States: A Systematic Review.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/microorganisms12010050}, pmid = {38257877}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {In the United States (US), tick-borne diseases (TBDs) have more than doubled in the past fifteen years and are a major contributor to the overall burden of vector-borne diseases. The most common TBDs in the US-Lyme disease, rickettsioses (including Rocky Mountain spotted fever), and anaplasmosis-have gradually shifted in recent years, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. In this systematic review, we examined climate change and other environmental factors that have influenced the epidemiology of these TBDs in the US while highlighting the opportunities for a One Health approach to mitigating their impact. We searched Medline Plus, PUBMED, and Google Scholar for studies focused on these three TBDs in the US from January 2018 to August 2023. Data selection and extraction were completed using Covidence, and the risk of bias was assessed with the ROBINS-I tool. The review included 84 papers covering multiple states across the US. We found that climate, seasonality and temporality, and land use are important environmental factors that impact the epidemiology and patterns of TBDs. The emerging trends, influenced by environmental factors, emphasize the need for region-specific research to aid in the prediction and prevention of TBDs.}, }
@article {pmid38256775, year = {2024}, author = {Vieira, TL and Barbosa-Silva, RG and Acosta, AL and van den Berg, C}, title = {Expanding the Distribution of Prosthechea jauana (Orchidaceae) in the Pantepui and Highlighting the Urgent Need for Conservation Strategies in the Region in Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants13020222}, pmid = {38256775}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {473244/2017-4//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; }, abstract = {Prosthechea jauana has been recognized as an orchid species endemic to the Venezuelan tepui. The first record of P. jauana in Brazil is presented here, also from a tepui in the Southern phytogeographical district of Pantepui in the Serra do Aracá, at the northern border of the Amazonas state. A detailed morphological description and images of the specimen are presented, as well as an updated distribution map, preliminary conservation status assessment, and taxonomic notes about the species. In addition, we provide species' distribution models for P. jauana based on current and future bioclimatic data. Future projections suggest that the geographic distribution of P. jauana will likely be severely affected, with ~79% of its suitable habitat being reduced by 2041-2060 and ~92% by 2061-2080. Prosthechea jauana could represent a flag species and an example of how climate change may affect the endemic Pantepui flora.}, }
@article {pmid38256729, year = {2024}, author = {Sanhueza, T and Hernández, I and Sagredo-Sáez, C and Villanueva-Guerrero, A and Alvarado, R and Mujica, MI and Fuentes-Quiroz, A and Menendez, E and Jorquera-Fontena, E and Valadares, RBDS and Herrera, H}, title = {Juvenile Plant-Microbe Interactions Modulate the Adaptation and Response of Forest Seedlings to Rapid Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/plants13020175}, pmid = {38256729}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {ID23I10303//Fondo de Fomento al Desarrollo Cientifico y Tecnologico/ ; DI23-0058; DI23-3009; and PP23-0038//by the Direcci&#xf3;n de Investigaci&#xf3;n Universidad de La Frontera/ ; 3200774//M.I.M thanks ANID Fondecyt/ ; }, abstract = {The negative impacts of climate change on native forest ecosystems have created challenging conditions for the sustainability of natural forest regeneration. These challenges arise primarily from abiotic stresses that affect the early stages of forest tree development. While there is extensive evidence on the diversity of juvenile microbial symbioses in agricultural and fruit crops, there is a notable lack of reports on native forest plants. This review aims to summarize the critical studies conducted on the diversity of juvenile plant-microbe interactions in forest plants and to highlight the main benefits of beneficial microorganisms in overcoming environmental stresses such as drought, high and low temperatures, metal(loid) toxicity, nutrient deficiency, and salinity. The reviewed studies have consistently demonstrated the positive effects of juvenile plant-microbiota interactions and have highlighted the potential beneficial attributes to improve plantlet development. In addition, this review discusses the beneficial attributes of managing juvenile plant-microbiota symbiosis in the context of native forest restoration, including its impact on plant responses to phytopathogens, promotion of nutrient uptake, facilitation of seedling adaptation, resource exchange through shared hyphal networks, stimulation of native soil microbial communities, and modulation of gene and protein expression to enhance adaptation to adverse environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38254352, year = {2024}, author = {van Hassel, F and Bovenkerk, B}, title = {Bringing Back a Scientific and Updated Approach to Wildlife Conservation: A Response. Reply to Beltrán, J.F.; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, E.J. Relying on Incomplete Information Can Lead to the Wrong Conclusions. Comment on "van Hassel, F.; Bovenkerk, B. How Should We Help Wild Animals Cope with Climate Change? The Case of the Iberian Lynx. Animals 2023, 13, 453".}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ani14020184}, pmid = {38254352}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {We are pleased that our paper on the need to extend climate justice to animals [...].}, }
@article {pmid38261386, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet. Rheumatology}, volume = {4}, number = {12}, pages = {e814-e816}, doi = {10.1016/S2665-9913(22)00314-9}, pmid = {38261386}, issn = {2665-9913}, }
@article {pmid38253826, year = {2024}, author = {Jin, Z and Zhao, H and Xian, X and Li, M and Qi, Y and Guo, J and Yang, N and Lü, Z and Liu, W}, title = {Early warning and management of invasive crop pests under global warming: estimating the global geographical distribution patterns and ecological niche overlap of three Diabrotica beetles.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38253826}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2021YFC2600400//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; caascx-2022-2025-IAS//Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Invasive alien pests (IAPs) pose a major threat to global agriculture and food production. When multiple IAPs coexist in the same habitat and use the same resources, the economic loss to local agricultural production increases. Many species of the Diabrotica genus, such as Diabrotica barberi, Diabrotica undecimpunctata, and Diabrotica virgifera, originating from the USA and Mexico, seriously damaged maize production in North America and Europe. However, the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) and degree of ecological niche overlap among the three Diabrotica beetles remain unclear; thus, the potential coexistence zone is unknown. Based on environmental and species occurrence data, we used an ensemble model (EM) to predict the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles. The n-dimensional hypervolumes concept was used to explore the degree of niche overlap among the three species. The EM showed better reliability than the individual models. According to the EM results, the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles were mainly distributed in North America, Europe, and Asia. Under the current scenario, D. virgifera has the largest PGD ranges (1615 × 10[4] km[2]). In the future, the PGD of this species will expand further and reach a maximum under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the 2050s (2499 × 10[4] km[2]). Diabrotica virgifera showed the highest potential for invasion under the current and future global warming scenarios. Among the three studied species, the degree of ecological niche overlap was the highest for D. undecimpunctata and D. virgifera, with the highest similarity in the PGD patterns and maximum coexistence range. Under global warming, the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles are expected to expand to high latitudes. Identifying the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles provides an important reference for quarantine authorities in countries at risk of invasion worldwide to develop specific preventive measures against pests.}, }
@article {pmid38253099, year = {2024}, author = {Bejagam, V and Sharma, A and Wei, X}, title = {Projected decline in the strength of vegetation carbon sequestration under climate change in India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170166}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170166}, pmid = {38253099}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Tropical vegetation plays a critical role in terrestrial carbon budget and supply many ecological functions such as carbon sequestration. In recent decades, India has witnessed an increase in net primary productivity (NPP), an important measure of carbon sequestration. However, uncertainties persist regarding the sustainability of these land carbon sinks in the face of climate change. The enhanced NPP is driven by the strong CO2 fertilization effect (CFE), but the temporal patterns of this feedback remain unclear. Using the carbon flux data from the Earth System Models (ESMs), an increasing trend in NPP was observed, with projections of NPP to 2.00 ± 0.12 PgCyr[-1] (25 % increase) during 2021-2049, 2.36 ± 0.12 PgCyr[-1] (18 % increase) during 2050-2079, and 2.67 ± 0.07 PgCyr[-1] (13 % increase) during 2080-2099 in Indian vegetation under SSP585 scenario. This suggests a significant decline in the NPP growth rate. To understand the feedback mechanisms driving NPP, the relative effects of CFE and warming were analyzed. Comparing simulations from the biogeochemically coupled model (BGC) with the fully coupled model, the BGC model projected a 74.7 % increase in NPP, significantly higher than the 55.9 % increase projected by the fully coupled model by the end of the century. This indicates that the consistent increase in NPP was associated with CO2 fertilization. More importantly, results reveal that the decrease in the NPP growth rate was due to the declining contribution of CFE at a rate of -0.62 % per 100 ppm CO2 increase. This decline could be attributed to factors such as nutrient limitations and high temperatures. Additionally, significant shifts in the strength of carbon sinks in offsetting the CO2 emissions were identified, decreasing at a rate of -1.15 % per decade. This decline in the strength of vegetation carbon sequestration may increase the societal dependence on mitigation measures to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38253093, year = {2024}, author = {Thakur, D and Altman, J and Jandova, V and Fibich, P and Münzbergová, Z and Dolezal, J}, title = {Global warming alters Himalayan alpine shrub growth dynamics and climate sensitivity.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170252}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170252}, pmid = {38253093}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global climate change is having significant effects on plant growth patterns and mountain plants can be particularly vulnerable to accelerated warming. Rising temperatures are releasing plants from cold limitation, such as at high elevations and latitudes, but can also induce drought limitation, as documented for trees from lower elevations and latitudes. Here we test these predictions using a unique natural experiment with Himalayan alpine shrub Rhododendron anthopogon and its growth responses to changing climate over a large portion of its latitudinal and elevational ranges, including steep precipitation and temperature gradients. We determined growth dynamics during the last three decades, representing period of accelerated warming, using annual radial growth increments for nine populations growing on both wet and warm southern localities and drier and cold northern localities in the Himalayas along elevation gradients encompassing the lower and upper species range limits. A significant growth increase over past decades was observed after controlling for confounding effect of shrub age and microsites. However, the magnitude of increase varied among populations. Particularly, populations situated in the lower elevation of the northernmost (cold and dry) locality exhibited most substantial growth enhancement. The relationship between growth variability and climate varied among populations, with the populations from the coldest location displaying the strongest responsiveness to increasing minimum temperatures during July. Minimum temperatures of April and August were the most important factor limiting the growth across most populations. Potential warming-induced drought limitation had no significant impact on growth variation in any part of the species geographic range. Overall, our findings indicate that plant growth is continuously increasing in recent decades and growth-climate relationships are not consistent across populations, with populations from the coldest and wettest localities showing stronger responses. The observed patterns suggest that dwarf-shrubs benefit from ongoing warming, leading to increased shrubification of high elevation alpine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38252786, year = {2024}, author = {Rodríguez-Osiac, L and Silva-Santa Cruz, I}, title = {Climate change and malnutrition are a public health challenge.}, journal = {Medwave}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.5867/medwave.2024.01.2806}, pmid = {38252786}, issn = {0717-6384}, }
@article {pmid38250438, year = {2023}, author = {Janni, M and Maestri, E and Gullì, M and Marmiroli, M and Marmiroli, N}, title = {Plant responses to climate change, how global warming may impact on food security: a critical review.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1297569}, pmid = {38250438}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Global agricultural production must double by 2050 to meet the demands of an increasing world human population but this challenge is further exacerbated by climate change. Environmental stress, heat, and drought are key drivers in food security and strongly impacts on crop productivity. Moreover, global warming is threatening the survival of many species including those which we rely on for food production, forcing migration of cultivation areas with further impoverishing of the environment and of the genetic variability of crop species with fall out effects on food security. This review considers the relationship of climatic changes and their bearing on sustainability of natural and agricultural ecosystems, as well as the role of omics-technologies, genomics, proteomics, metabolomics, phenomics and ionomics. The use of resource saving technologies such as precision agriculture and new fertilization technologies are discussed with a focus on their use in breeding plants with higher tolerance and adaptability and as mitigation tools for global warming and climate changes. Nevertheless, plants are exposed to multiple stresses. This study lays the basis for the proposition of a novel research paradigm which is referred to a holistic approach and that went beyond the exclusive concept of crop yield, but that included sustainability, socio-economic impacts of production, commercialization, and agroecosystem management.}, }
@article {pmid38249558, year = {2023}, author = {Souf, IB and Saidani, M and Ben Larbi, M and M'Hamdi, N}, title = {Editorial: Farm animal welfare and climate change: methods of assessment and mitigation.}, journal = {Frontiers in veterinary science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1343934}, pmid = {38249558}, issn = {2297-1769}, }
@article {pmid38249031, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, K and Xu, M and Zhao, L}, title = {Plasticity of Life-History Traits and Adult Fitness of Fall Webworm in Relation to Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/insects15010024}, pmid = {38249031}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {No. 32171803//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Temperature is an important environmental factor influencing the life-history traits of ectotherms. This study investigated the effects of larval-rearing temperature (21, 23, 25, and 27 °C) on the life-history traits and adult fitness of the fall webworm, Hyphantria cunea, an economically important invasive pest of China. With the increase in temperature during the larval stage, the larval developmental duration was significantly shortened, and the body mass was significantly increased, as was that of the body mass and size of pupae. The carbohydrate and lipid content of pupae significantly decreased with increasing larval-rearing temperature, whereas the protein content significantly increased. Adult body size and egg production increased significantly with increasing larval-rearing temperature, whereas there was no significant difference in egg diameter. These results indicate that H. cunea demonstrates life-history traits plasticity. In addition, the increase in fecundity would maintain a stable population size of H. cunea under higher temperatures. Such characteristics could enable H. cunea to spread to the more southern, warmer areas of China, posing an increased risk to the forestry industry in these regions.}, }
@article {pmid38248693, year = {2024}, author = {Shoib, S and Das, S and Zaidi, I and Chandradasa, M}, title = {Climate change and Indigenous mental health in Australia: In the aftermath of the defeat of the Voice referendum.}, journal = {The International journal of social psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {207640231221091}, doi = {10.1177/00207640231221091}, pmid = {38248693}, issn = {1741-2854}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: This manuscript delves into the intricate connection between climate change and Indigenous mental health in Australia, with a focus on the aftermath of the defeat of the 'Voice' referendum. Climate change, recognized for its broad impact on mental health determinants, poses heightened risks to vulnerable communities, including Indigenous populations. The defeat of 'The Voice' referendum adds complexity, highlighting concerns about the lack of meaningful rights for the First Peoples of Australia. The bushfires further underscore ecological consequences, affecting Indigenous ecosystems and intensifying existing environmental challenges. Climate change exacerbates existing health challenges for Indigenous peoples, introducing new issues like ecological sorrow and anxiety.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: The manuscript advocates for prioritized research in Indigenous communities to explore the link between climate change and mental health. It emphasizes interdisciplinary and collaborative research, giving voice to those directly affected by climate change. The lack of trust between Indigenous populations and authorities, along with the implications on self-determination, is crucial research focus.<br><br>RESULTS: Renewable energy emerges as a potential solution deeply ingrained in Indigenous practices. The manuscript discusses challenges in achieving eco-friendly resettlement, emphasizing collaboration difficulties between the government and remote communities. The indigenous worldview, with its interconnectedness, is crucial for sustainable strategies.<br><br>Indigenous perspectives on planetary health are crucial, emphasizing the importance of Indigenous knowledge in shaping effective climate policies. The manuscript stresses dialogues between policymakers and Indigenous elders for formulating respectful land laws. It calls for global attention to the role of Indigenous peoples as biodiversity caretakers and urges recognition of their knowledge in climate change. Future directions include data collection for ecosystem protection, improving mental health outcomes post-climate events, and supporting impacted communities. Mental health care approaches in remote communities and practitioner training for climate-related issues are emphasized. The manuscript calls for increased funding for interdisciplinary research to understand the long-term impact of climate change on mental health, especially among vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid38248506, year = {2023}, author = {Rom, WN}, title = {Annals of Education: Teaching Climate Change and Global Public Health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph21010041}, pmid = {38248506}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {The climate crisis is a health emergency: breaking temperature records every successive month, increasing mortality from hurricanes/cyclones resulting in >USD150 billion/year in damages, and mounting global loss of life from floods, droughts, and food insecurity. An entire course on climate change and global public health was envisioned, designed for students in public health, and delivered to Masters level students. The course content included the physical science behind global heating, heat waves, extreme weather disasters, arthropod-related diseases, allergies, air pollution epidemiology, melting ice and sea level rise, climate denialism, renewable energy and economics, social cost of carbon, and public policy. The methods included student engagement in presenting two air pollution epidemiological or experimental papers on fossil fuel air pollution. Second, they authored a mid-term paper on a specific topic in the climate crisis facing their locale, e.g., New York City. Third, they focused on a State, evaluating their climate change laws and their plans to harness renewable wind, solar, storage, nuclear, and geothermal energy. Students elsewhere covered regional entities' approach to renewable energy. Fourth, the global impact was presented by student teams presenting a country's nationally determined contribution to the Paris Climate Agreement. Over 200 Master's students completed the course; the participation and feedback demonstrated markedly improved knowledge and evaluation of the course over time.}, }
@article {pmid38248488, year = {2023}, author = {Stewart, AE and Chapman, HE and Davis, JBL}, title = {Anxiety and Worry about Six Categories of Climate Change Impacts.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph21010023}, pmid = {38248488}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {The occurrence of severe and extreme weather events that have been attributed to a changed climate system and the widespread dissemination of the impacts of these events in the media can lead people to experience concern, worry, and anxiety, which we examined in two studies. In Study 1, we observed that people more frequently expressed worry than anxiety about the impacts of climate change in six areas. People were more frequently worried and anxious about the effects of climate change on future generations and about societal responses (or lack of a response) to climate change. The levels of anxiety that people expressed were significantly higher than the worry people reported when anxiety was their modal response. In Study 2, we observed that both climate change worry and anxiety were negatively correlated with psychological distance from climate change. Overall, climate change worry and psychological distance significantly predicted climate-sustainable behaviors. Our study was among the first to use developed measures of climate change worry, anxiety, and psychological distance to examine peoples' responses across some of the possible impact and consequence areas of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38248440, year = {2023}, author = {Bosch-Belmar, M and Milanese, M and Sarà, A and Mobilia, V and Sarà, G}, title = {Effect of Acute Thermal Stress Exposure on Ecophysiological Traits of the Mediterranean Sponge Chondrilla nucula: Implications for Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3390/biology13010009}, pmid = {38248440}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {101060072//Erasmus+ InterMED project, and Horizon 2020 ACT- NOW project/ ; }, abstract = {As a result of climate change, the Mediterranean Sea has been exposed to an increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heat waves in the last decades, some of which caused mass mortality events of benthic invertebrates, including sponges. Sponges are an important component of benthic ecosystems and can be the dominant group in some rocky shallow-water areas in the Mediterranean Sea. In this study, we exposed the common shallow-water Mediterranean sponge Chondrilla nucula (Demospongiae: Chondrillidae) to six different temperatures for 24 h, ranging from temperatures experienced in the field during the year (15, 19, 22, 26, and 28 °C) to above normal temperatures (32 °C) and metabolic traits (respiration and clearance rate) were measured. Both respiration and clearance rates were affected by temperature. Respiration rates increased at higher temperatures but were similar between the 26 and 32 °C treatments. Clearance rates decreased at temperatures >26 °C, indicating a drop in food intake that was not reflected by respiration rates. This decline in feeding, while maintaining high respiration rates, may indicate a negative energy balance that could affect this species under chronic or repeated thermal stress exposure. C. nucula will probably be a vulnerable species under climate change conditions, affecting its metabolic performance, ecological functioning and the ecosystem services it provides.}, }
@article {pmid38248134, year = {2024}, author = {Gianfredi, V and Mazziotta, F and Clerici, G and Astorri, E and Oliani, F and Cappellina, M and Catalini, A and Dell'Osso, BM and Pregliasco, FE and Castaldi, S and Benatti, B}, title = {Climate Change Perception and Mental Health. Results from a Systematic Review of the Literature.}, journal = {European journal of investigation in health, psychology and education}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {215-229}, doi = {10.3390/ejihpe14010014}, pmid = {38248134}, issn = {2254-9625}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the main global challenges and influences various aspects of human health. Numerous studies have indeed demonstrated an association between extreme climate-related events and physical and mental health outcomes, but little is still known about the association between the perception/awareness of climate change and mental health. In accordance with the PRISMA 2020 guidelines, a search was conducted on PubMed and Scopus. The protocol was registered on PROSPERO. The included studies were original observational studies published in English, reporting the association between the perception/awareness of climate change and mental health. A total of 3018 articles were identified. A total of 10 observational studies were included. The period covered in the included studies ranged between 2012 and 2022. Climate change perception is consistently associated with adverse mental health effects across different types of estimates. In particular, the studies identified an association between a higher level of perception/awareness of climate change and depression, anxiety, eco-anxiety, stress, adjustment disorder, substance use, dysphoria, and even thoughts of suicide. Qualitative data underscore the impact on daily activities, contributing to feelings of loss and suicidal ideation. Moreover, climate change perception correlates with lower well-being and resilience. The association between awareness of climate change and mental health is a complex and still poorly explored phenomenon. The main limitations are the high heterogeneity in terms of exposure assessment and data reporting, which hinders quantitative analysis. These results show that climate change perception impacts mental health. Better understanding the phenomenon represents an opportunity to inform public health interventions that promote mental well-being.}, }
@article {pmid38246386, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, T and Yang, J and Winrich, A and Will, RE and Zou, CB}, title = {Trade-off of ecosystem productivity and water use related to afforestation in southcentral USA under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170255}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170255}, pmid = {38246386}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The increase of tree canopy cover due to woody plant encroachment and tree plantations modifies both carbon and water dynamics. The tradeoffs between ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) and water use with increasing tree cover in different climate conditions, particularly under future climate scenarios, are not well understood. Within the climate transition zone of the southern Great Plains, USA, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool+ (SWAT+) to investigate the combined impacts of increasing tree cover and climate change on carbon and water dynamics in three watersheds representing semiarid, subhumid, and humid climates. Model simulations incorporated two land use modifications (Baseline: existing tree cover; Forest +: increasing evergreen tree cover), in conjunction with two climate change projections (the RCP45 and the RCP85), spanning two time periods (historic: 1991-2020; future: 2070-2099). With climate change, the subhumid and humid watersheds exhibited a greater increase in evapotranspiration (ET) and a corresponding reduction in runoff compared to the semi-arid watershed, while the semi-arid and subhumid watersheds encountered pronounced losses in water availability for streams (>200 mm/year) due to increasing tree cover and climate change. With every 1 % increase in tree cover, both NPP and water use efficiency were projected to increase in all three watersheds under both climate change scenarios, with the subhumid watershed demonstrating the largest increases (>0.16 Mg/ha/year and 170 %, respectively). Increasing tree cover within grasslands, either through woody plant expansion or afforestation, boosts ecosystem NPP, particularly in subhumid regions. Nevertheless, this comes with a notable decrease in water resources, a concern made worse by future climate change. While afforestation offers the potential for greater NPP, it also brings heightened water scarcity concerns, highlighting the importance of tailoring carbon sequestration strategies within specific regions to mitigate unintended repercussions on water availability.}, }
@article {pmid38244018, year = {2024}, author = {Licari, FW and Patil, S}, title = {Climate change and the unforeseen challenges for dental practice.}, journal = {Journal of the American Dental Association (1939)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.adaj.2023.12.005}, pmid = {38244018}, issn = {1943-4723}, }
@article {pmid38243236, year = {2024}, author = {Sprague, NL and Uong, SP and Zonnevylle, H and Chatterjee, T and Hernández, D and Rundle, AG and Ekenga, CC}, title = {The CHANGE (Climate Health ANalysis Grading Evaluation) tool for weight of evidence reviews on climate change and health research.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {7}, pmid = {38243236}, issn = {1476-069X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has been identified as one of the biggest threats to human health. Despite this claim, there are no standardized tools that assess the rigor of published literature for use in weight of evidence (WOE) reviews. Standardized assessment tools are essential for creating clear and comparable WOE reviews. As such, we developed a standardized tool for evaluating the quality of climate change and health studies focused on evaluating studies that quantify exposure-response relationships and studies that implement and/or evaluate adaptation interventions.<br><br>METHODS: The authors explored systematic-review methodology to enhance transparency and increase efficiency in summarizing and synthesizing findings from studies on climate change and health research. The authors adapted and extended existing WOE methods to develop the CHANGE (Climate Health ANalysis Grading Evaluation) tool. The resulting assessment tool has been refined through application and subsequent team input.<br><br>RESULTS: The CHANGE tool is a two-step standardized tool for systematic review of climate change and health studies of exposure-response relationships and adaptation intervention studies. Step one of the CHANGE tool aims to classify studies included in weight-of-evidence reviews and step two assesses the quality and presence of bias in the climate change and health studies.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The application of the CHANGE tool in WOE reviews of climate change and health will lead to increased comparability, objectivity, and transparency within this research area.}, }
@article {pmid38242484, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, Y and Zhang, X and Du, X and Du, Z and Sun, M}, title = {Alpine grassland greening on the Northern Tibetan Plateau driven by climate change and human activities considering extreme temperature and soil moisture.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {169995}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169995}, pmid = {38242484}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Alpine grassland is among the world's most vulnerable ecosystems, characterized by a high sensitivity to climate change (CC) and human activities (HA). Quantifying the relative contributions of CC and HA to grassland change plays a crucial role in safeguarding grassland ecological security and devising sustainable grassland management strategies. Although there were adequate studies focusing on the separate impacts of CC and HA on alpine ecosystem, insufficient attention has been given to investigating the effects of extreme temperatures and soil moisture. In this study, the spatiotemporal variations of alpine grassland were analyzed based on MODIS NDVI during the growing season from 2000 to 2020 in Naqu, using partial least squares regression and residual analysis methods to analyze the importance of climate factors and the impacts of CC and HA on grassland change. The results show that the NDVI during the growing season in Naqu exhibited an increasing trend of 0.0046/10a. At the biome scale, the most significant and rapid increase was observed in alpine desert and alpine desert grassland. Extreme temperature and soil moisture (SM) exerted a more significant importance on alpine grassland at whole scale. SM always showed a significant importance at biome and grid scale. The contributions of CC and HA to the change during the growing season were calculated as 0.0032/10a and 0.0015/10a, respectively, accounting for 68.05 % and 31.05 %. CC dominated the increase in NDVI during the growing season; HA contributed positively to NDVI in most areas of Naqu. The results are expected to enhance our understanding of grassland variations under CC and HA and provide a scientific basis for future ecological conservation in alpine regions.}, }
@article {pmid38242478, year = {2024}, author = {Shah, S and Ilyas, M and Bian, S and Yang, FL}, title = {Discussion: Harnessing microbiome-mediated adaptations in insect pollinators to mitigate climate change impact on crop pollination.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {915}, number = {}, pages = {170145}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170145}, pmid = {38242478}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Insect pollinators, vital for agriculture and biodiversity, face escalating threats from climate change. We argue and explore the pivotal role of the microbiomes in shaping adaptations of insect pollinator resilience amid climate-induced challenges (climate change and habitat alteration). Examining diverse taxonomic groups, we unravel the interplay between insect physiology, microbiomes, and adaptive mechanisms. Climate-driven alterations in microbiomes impact insect health, behavior, and plant interactions, posing significant effects on agricultural ecosystems. We propose harnessing microbiome-mediated adaptations as a strategic approach to mitigate climate change impacts on crop pollination. Insights into insect-pollinator microbiomes offer transformative avenues for sustainable agriculture, including probiotic interventions (use of EM PROBIOTIC) and microbiome engineering (such as engineering gut bacteria) to induce immune responses and enhanced pollination services. Integrating microbiome insights into conservation practices elucidates strategies for preserving pollinator habitats, optimizing agricultural landscapes, and developing policies to safeguard pollinator health in the face of environmental changes. Finally, we stress interdisciplinary collaboration and the urgency of understanding pollinator microbiome dynamics under climate change in future research.}, }
@article {pmid38242308, year = {2024}, author = {Varjani, S and Vyas, S and Su, J and Siddiqui, MA and Qin, ZH and Miao, Y and Liu, Z and Ethiraj, S and Mou, JH and Ki Lin, CS}, title = {Nexus of food waste and climate change framework: Unravelling the links between impacts, projections, and emissions.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {123387}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2024.123387}, pmid = {38242308}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {This communication explores the intricate relationship between food waste and climate change, considering aspects such as impacts, projections, and emissions. It focuses on the pressing issue of waste generation and its potential consequences if current trends persist, and emphasises the importance of efficient solid waste management in improving environmental quality and fostering economic development. It also highlights the challenges faced by developing countries in waste collection and disposal, drawing comparisons with the waste utilisation methods used by developed nations. The review delves into the link between food waste and climate change, noting the paradoxical situation of food wastage against the backdrop of global hunger and malnutrition. It underscores the scientific evidence connecting food waste to climate change and its implications for food security and climate systems. Additionally, it examines the environmental burden imposed by food waste, including its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and the depletion of resources such as energy, water, and land. Besides environmental concerns, this communication also highlights the ethical and socioeconomic dimensions of food waste, discussing its influence on Sustainable Development Goals, poverty, and social inequality. The communication concludes by advocating for collective action and the development of successful mitigation strategies, technological solutions, and policy interventions to address food waste and its climate impacts. It emphasises the need for collaboration, awareness, and informed decision-making to ensure a more sustainable and equitable future.}, }
@article {pmid38242065, year = {2024}, author = {Balakrishnan, JV and Bailey, RT and Jeong, J and Park, S and Abitew, T}, title = {Quantifying climate change impacts on future water resources and salinity transport in a high semi-arid watershed.}, journal = {Journal of contaminant hydrology}, volume = {261}, number = {}, pages = {104289}, doi = {10.1016/j.jconhyd.2023.104289}, pmid = {38242065}, issn = {1873-6009}, abstract = {High salinity mobilization and movement from salt-laden deposits in semi-arid landscapes impair soils and water resources worldwide. Semi-arid regions worldwide are expected to experience rising temperatures and lower precipitation, impacting water supply and spatio-temporal patterns of salinity loads and affecting downstream water quality. This study quantifies the impact of future climate on hydrologic fluxes and salt loads in the Gunnison River Watershed (GRW) (14,608 km[2]), Colorado, using the APEX-MODFLOW-Salt hydro-chemical watershed model and three different CMIP5 climate models projection downscaled by Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) for the period 2020-2099. The APEX-MODFLOW-Salt model accounts for the reactive transport of major salt ions (SO4[2-], Cl[-], CO3[2-], HCO3[-], Ca[2+], Na[+], Mg[2+], and K[+]) to streams via surface runoff, rainfall erosional runoff, soil lateral flow, quick return flow and groundwater-stream exchange. Model results are analyzed for spatial and temporal trends in water yield and salt loading pathways. Although streamflow is primarily derived from surface runoff (65%), the predominant source of salt loads is the aquifer (73%) due to elevated concentrations of groundwater salt. Annual salt loading from the watershed is 582 Mkg, approximately 10% of the salt load in the Colorado River measured at Lee's Ferry, AZ. For future climate scenarios, annual salt loads from the watershed increased between 4.1% and 9.6% from the historical period due to increased salt loading from groundwater and quick return flow. From the results, applying the APEX-MODFLOW-Salt model with downscaled future climate forcings can be a helpful modeling framework for investigating hydrology and salt mobilization, transport, and export in historical and predictive settings for salt-affected watersheds.}, }
@article {pmid38240844, year = {2024}, author = {Günster, C and Schmuker, C}, title = {[Health and climate change-what is the potential of real-world data?].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38240844}, issn = {1437-1588}, abstract = {This article addresses the question of how climate change may affect health and to what extent real-world data can contribute to research in this topic area. Climate change is altering the environmental and living conditions of humankind, and has thus also become a relevant health problem. The increase in extreme weather events, changes in exposure to UV and air pollution, and the climate-associated spread of allergens or novel pathogens are significantly changing the spectrum of diseases and the need for medical care in the population. However, in Germany, only few findings on the consequences for the healthcare system and on particularly affected population groups exist so far. Real-world data (primary data, register data, and administrative data) in combination with environmental exposure data and other relevant data (e.g., socio-economic data) have the potential to significantly advance research on the health consequences of climate change. This paper identifies changes in environmental and living conditions and associated health risks. It describes the databases that are generally available for analysing health effects of climate change. A concrete example is used to show how individual health data (in this case claims data of the statutory health insurance), environmental exposure data and other data can be successfully combined. Finally, the article offers a comprehensive overview of open research questions that can be answered with real-world data.}, }
@article {pmid38240743, year = {2024}, author = {Marsland, R and Staples, J}, title = {Time for a Focus on Climate Change and Health.}, journal = {Medical anthropology}, volume = {43}, number = {1}, pages = {1-4}, doi = {10.1080/01459740.2023.2293125}, pmid = {38240743}, issn = {1545-5882}, }
@article {pmid38240262, year = {2024}, author = {Goldfarb, DS}, title = {Nephrologists should talk to their patients about climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in nephrology and hypertension}, volume = {33}, number = {2}, pages = {170-173}, doi = {10.1097/MNH.0000000000000956}, pmid = {38240262}, issn = {1473-6543}, }
@article {pmid38237786, year = {2024}, author = {Altman, J and Fibich, P and Trotsiuk, V and Altmanova, N}, title = {Global pattern of forest disturbances and its shift under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170117}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170117}, pmid = {38237786}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Forests are continuously altered by disturbances. Yet, knowledge of global pattern of forest disturbance agents, its drivers, and shifts under changing climate remain scarce. Here we present a meta-analysis of current and projected (+2° and + 4 °C) distribution of forest disturbance agents causing immediate tree mortality (i.e., fire, pest outbreak, hydro-geomorphic, and wind) at country, continental, biome, and global scales. The model including combination of climatic (precipitation of driest quarter, actual evapotranspiration, and minimum temperature), geographical (distance to coast and topography complexity), and forest characteristics (tree density) performs better than any other model in explaining the distribution of disturbance agents (R[2] = 0.74). We provide global maps (0.5° × 0.5°) of current and potential future distribution of forest disturbance agents. Globally, the most frequent disturbance agent was fire (46.09 %), followed by pest outbreak (23.27 %), hydro-geomorphic disturbances (18.97 %), and wind (11.67 %). Our projections indicate spatially contrasting shifts in disturbance agents, with fire and wind risk increase between ~50°S and ~ 40°N under warming climate. In particular, the substantial increase in fire risk, exceeding 31 % in the most affected areas, is projected over Mediterranean, the western and southeast USA, African, Oceanian, and South American forests. On the other hand, pest outbreak and hydro-geomorphic disturbances are projected to increase in more southern (> ~ 50°S) and northern (> ~ 40°N) latitudes. Our findings are critical for understanding ongoing changes and developing mitigation strategies to maintain the ecological integrity and ecosystem services under shifts in forest disturbances. We suggest that projected shifts in the global distribution of forest disturbance agents needs to be considered to future models of vegetation or carbon sink dynamics under projected climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38236442, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, J and Wang, M and Pang, X and Yan, X and Chen, X and Tian, J}, title = {Assessment of the response characteristics of pollution load in Huntai Basin under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {2}, pages = {173}, pmid = {38236442}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {This study establishes a calibrated SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model for the Huntai Basin, driven by SSP126, SSP245, SSP585, and multi-model ensemble (MME) models in CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6), to investigate the effects of climate change on hydrological processes and pollution load in the Huntai Basin. The results show that the annual mean temperature and the annual precipitation will gradually increase. The nitrogen and phosphorus pollution loads in the basin exhibit a trend of decreasing-increasing-decreasing. The correlation between the nitrogen-phosphorus pollution load and the hydrological process strengthens with increasing radiative forcing. In the four scenarios, CO2 is a primary driving factor that contributes greatly to nitrogen and phosphorus pollution. The main differences are in the total driving factors, and SSP126 and SSP245 are less than those of other models. The total phosphorus and total nitrogen pollution in different climate models were higher than the average level during the benchmark period, except for ammonia nitrogen pollution, which was lower. The nitrogen and phosphorus pollution in SSP126 and SSP245 modes will reach the maximum in 2040s, and the pollution in other periods will be lower than that in SSP585 and MME scenarios. In the long run, the development state between SSP126 and SSP245 may be better appropriate for the Huntai Basin's future sustainable development. This paper analyzes the occurrence and influencing factors of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution under climate change to provide reference to the protection of water environment under changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid38236429, year = {2024}, author = {Sanz-Mas, M and Ubalde-López, M and Borràs, S and Brugueras, S and Continente, X and Daher, C and Marí-Dell'Olmo, M and López, MJ}, title = {Adapting Schools to Climate Change with Green, Blue, and Grey Measures in Barcelona: Study Protocol of a Mixed-Method Evaluation.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38236429}, issn = {1468-2869}, support = {GBG_AS2C//Urban Innovative Actions/ ; 2017SGR1526//Ag&#xe8;ncia de Gesti&#xf3; d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca/ ; CEX2018-000806-S//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; CEX2018-000806-S//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; CEX2018-000806-S//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; }, abstract = {Under the framework of the Urban Innovative Actions program of the European Commission, in 2020, 11 primary schools in Barcelona were transformed into climate shelters by implementing green, blue, and grey measures. Schoolyards were also opened to the local community to be used during non-school periods. Here we present the study protocol of a mixed-method approach to evaluate the effectiveness of the interventions in terms of improving environmental quality and health for users. We evaluated school level through the following: (1) quantitative pre-post quasi-experimental study, and (2) qualitative evaluation. The quantitative study included measures of (a) environmental variables (collected via low-cost and non-low-cost sensors), (b) students' health and well-being (collected via health questionnaires, attention levels test, and systematic observations), and (c) teachers' health and well-being (collected via thermal comfort measurements and health questionnaires). The qualitative methods evaluated the perceptions about the effects of the interventions among students (using Photovoice) and teachers (through focus groups). The impact of the interventions was assessed at community level during summer non-school periods through a spontaneous ethnographic approach. Data collection started in August 2019 and ended in July 2022. The evaluation provides the opportunity to identify those solutions that worked and those that need to be improved for future experiences, as well as improve the evaluation methodology and replication for these kinds of interventions.}, }
@article {pmid38235528, year = {2024}, author = {Staples, K and Neville, PJ and Richardson, S and Oosthuizen, J}, title = {Development of a regional climate change model for Aedes vigilax and Aedes camptorhynchus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Perth, Western Australia.}, journal = {Bulletin of entomological research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, doi = {10.1017/S0007485323000561}, pmid = {38235528}, issn = {1475-2670}, abstract = {Mosquito-borne disease is a significant public health issue and within Australia Ross River virus (RRV) is the most reported. This study combines a mechanistic model of mosquito development for two mosquito vectors; Aedes vigilax and Aedes camptorhynchus, with climate projections from three climate models for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), to examine the possible effects of climate change and sea-level rise on a temperate tidal saltmarsh habitat in Perth, Western Australia. The projections were run under no accretion and accretion scenarios using a known mosquito habitat as a case study. This improves our understanding of the possible implications of sea-level rise, accretion and climate change for mosquito control programmes for similar habitats across temperate tidal areas found in Southwest Western Australia. The output of the model indicate that the proportion of the year mosquitoes are active increases. Population abundances of the two Aedes species increase markedly. The main drivers of changes in mosquito population abundances are increases in the frequency of inundation of the tidal wetland and size of the area inundated, increased minimum water temperature, and decreased daily temperature fluctuations as water depth increases due to sea level changes, particularly under the model with no accretion. The effects on mosquito populations are more marked for RCP 8.5 when compared to RCP 4.5 but were consistent among the three climate change models. The results indicate that Ae. vigilax is likely to be the most abundant species in 2030 and 2050, but that by 2070 Aedes camptorhynchus may become the more abundant species. This increase would put considerable pressure on existing mosquito control programmes and increase the risk of mosquito-borne disease and nuisance biting to the local community, and planning to mitigate these potential impacts should commence now.}, }
@article {pmid38234437, year = {2024}, author = {Mikula, P and Askeyev, OV and Askeyev, AO and Askeyev, IV and Morelli, F and Menzel, A and Tryjanowski, P}, title = {Climate change is associated with asynchrony in arrival between two sympatric cuckoos and both host arrival and prey emergence.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {231691}, pmid = {38234437}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Matching the timing of spring arrival to the breeding grounds with hosts and prey is crucial for migratory brood parasites such as cuckoos. Previous studies have focused mostly on phenological mismatch between a single cuckoo species and its hosts but information regarding climate-driven mismatch between multiple sympatric cuckoo species and their hosts and invertebrate prey is still lacking. Here, we analysed long-term data (1988-2023) on the first arrival date of two declining migratory cuckoo species and their 14 migratory host species breeding in sympatry and prey emergence date in Tatarstan (southeast Russia). We found that the common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus; wintering in Africa) generally arrived on breeding grounds earlier than the oriental cuckoo (Cuculus optatus; wintering in southeast Asia and Australia). Both cuckoos have advanced their arrival dates over 36 years but less than their hosts, potentially resulting in an increasing arrival mismatch between cuckoos and their hosts. Moreover, cuckoo arrival advanced less than the emergence date of their prey over time. These observations indicate that climate change may disrupt co-fluctuation in the phenology of important life stages between multiple sympatric brood parasites, their hosts and prey with potential cascading consequences for population dynamics of involved species.}, }
@article {pmid38233070, year = {2024}, author = {Muro, A and Czajkowski, S and Hall, KL and Neta, G and Weaver, SJ and D'Angelo, H}, title = {Climate Change Harm Perception Among U.S. Adults in the NCI Health Information National Trends Survey, 2022.}, journal = {American journal of health promotion : AJHP}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {8901171241228339}, doi = {10.1177/08901171241228339}, pmid = {38233070}, issn = {2168-6602}, abstract = {PURPOSE: To examine associations between 1) sociodemographics and 2) trust in health information sources with climate change harm perception.<br><br>METHODS: Weighted adjusted logistic regression models examined correlates of climate change harm perception (harm vs no harm/don't know) among a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults (2022, n = 5585).<br><br>RESULTS: Sixty-four percent of U.S. adults believed climate change will harm their health. College education (vs high school or less) (AOR 1.7, 95% CI&#x2009;1.3, 2.2) and having greater trust in doctors (AOR 1.4, 95% CI&#x2009;1.2, 1.7), scientists (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.6, 2.0), and government health agencies (AOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5, 1.9) for health information were associated with believing climate change harms health. Conversely, greater trust in religious organizations was associated with 16% lower odds of believing climate change harms health (95% CI .74, .94).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change harm perception varied by sociodemographics and trust in health information source. Health communication delivered via alternative and diverse channels could expand the reach of climate and health messaging and ultimately increase public awareness and support for measures to mitigate the health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38232746, year = {2024}, author = {Greenwald, R and Laures-Gore, JS and Nogueira, LM}, title = {The Intersectionality of Climate Change and Post-Stroke Aphasia.}, journal = {Seminars in speech and language}, volume = {45}, number = {1}, pages = {46-55}, doi = {10.1055/s-0043-1777858}, pmid = {38232746}, issn = {1098-9056}, abstract = {Persons with communication disabilities including persons with post-stroke aphasia (PWAs) possess a vulnerability to climate change as a result of their communication impairments. The disproportionate effects of climate change are likely to exacerbate preexisting inequities in social determinants of health. Communication disability intersecting with other characteristics subject to discrimination (e.g., race, age, sex, income) may lead to inequities in climate-related adaptive capacity. This article echoes earlier concerns related to climate change and further educates healthcare professionals about the impact of climate change on the global human population, with particular consideration of PWAs. The aims of this article are the following: (1) to broaden the understanding of aphasiologists and clinicians caring for PWAs about climate change and the contributions of human activity (anthropogenic) to this crisis; (2) to describe climate change and its impact on health; (3) to detail the intersectionality of climate and health; (4) to explore climate change and its potential effects on PWAs; and (5) to offer hope through emissions reduction, adaptation, resilience, and immediate change.}, }
@article {pmid38232434, year = {2024}, author = {Sihombing, RI and Mondal, S and Ray, A and Lee, MA and Lu, QH}, title = {Recent global climate change effects: A study of Eleutheronema rhadinum in Chang-Yuen Ridge, Taiwan.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {195}, number = {}, pages = {106352}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106352}, pmid = {38232434}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {This study investigated the potential effects of climatic oscillations on CPUE of Eleutheronema rhadinum (East Asian fourfinger threadfin), a commercially valuable fish species in East Asia. Fishery data from Chang-Yuen Ridge between 2015 and 2022 was analyzed in conjunction with four climatic oscillation indices that were lagged by up to 5 years. The results revealed a fluctuating CPUE associated with the 1-year-lagged Ocean Niño Index (ONI lag 1) and 1-year-lagged Southern Oscillation Index (SOI lag 1) suggesting a potential effect between climatic oscillation indices and East Asian fourfinger threadfin CPUE. These findings can provide insights into the association between East Asian fourfinger threadfin abundance and climatic oscillations in Chang-Yuen Ridge, Taiwan; the insights are valuable for fishery management amidst changing climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38233672, year = {2024}, author = {Daoust, L}, title = {Climate change and nutritional adequacy.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s43016-024-00918-x}, pmid = {38233672}, issn = {2662-1355}, }
@article {pmid38232258, year = {2023}, author = {Blanco-Villafuerte, L and Hartinger, SM}, title = {Impact of climate change on the health of peruvians: challenges and strategies for a comprehensive response.}, journal = {Revista peruana de medicina experimental y salud publica}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {130-131}, doi = {10.17843/rpmesp.2023.402.12998}, pmid = {38232258}, issn = {1726-4642}, }
@article {pmid38232072, year = {2024}, author = {Cogen, JD and Perkins, A and Mockler, B and Barton, KS and Schwartz, A and Boos, M and Radhakrishnan, A and Rai, P and Tandon, P and Philipsborn, R and Grow, HM and , }, title = {Pediatric Resident and Program Director Views on Climate Change and Health Curricula: A Multi-Institution Study.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000005633}, pmid = {38232072}, issn = {1938-808X}, abstract = {PURPOSE: The American Academy of Pediatrics emphasized in a 2007 policy statement the importance of educating trainees on the impacts of climate change on children's health, yet few studies have evaluated trainee knowledge and attitudes about climate change-related health effects in children. This multi-institution study assessed pediatric resident and program director 1) knowledge/attitudes on climate change and health, 2) perspectives on the importance of incorporating climate and health content into pediatric graduate medical education, and 3) preferred topics/activities to include in climate and health curricula.<br><br>METHOD: This mixed-methods study employed an anonymous cross-sectional survey of pediatric residents and residency program directors from Association of Pediatric Program Directors (APPD) Longitudinal Educational Assessment Research Network (LEARN)-affiliated programs. Multivariable regression models and factor analyses were used to examine associations among resident demographics and resident knowledge, attitudes, and interest in a climate change curriculum. A conventional content analysis was conducted for the open-ended responses.<br><br>RESULTS: Eighteen programs participated in the study with all program directors (100% response rate) and 663 residents (average response rate per program 53%, overall response rate 42%) completing respective surveys. Of program directors, only 3 (17%) felt very or moderately knowledgeable about the association between climate change and health impacts. The majority of residents (n = 423, 64%) agreed/strongly agreed that physicians should discuss global warming/climate change and its health effects with patients/families, while only 138 residents (21%) agreed/strongly agreed that they were comfortable talking with patients and families about these issues. Most residents (n = 498, 76%) and program directors (n = 15, 83%) agreed/strongly agreed that a climate change curriculum should be incorporated into their pediatrics training program.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric residents and program directors support curricula that prepares future pediatricians to address the impact of climate change on children's health; however, few programs currently offer specific training, despite identified needs.}, }
@article {pmid38232061, year = {2024}, author = {Frisbie, SH and Mitchell, EJ and Molla, AR}, title = {Sea level rise from climate change is expected to increase the release of arsenic into Bangladesh's drinking well water by reduction and by the salt effect.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {e0295172}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0295172}, pmid = {38232061}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Over 165,000,000 people live in Bangladesh; approximately 97% of Bangladeshis drink well water. Approximately 49% of Bangladesh's area has drinking well water with arsenic (As) concentrations that exceed the 10 micrograms per liter (μg/L) World Health Organization (WHO) guideline. This exposure to a potent carcinogen is a significant threat to public health. About 21% of Bangladesh is flooded each year during a typical monsoon season. As climate change progresses, sea levels will continue to rise, and the area and duration of these annual floods will increase. We hypothesize that these consequences of climate change can increase the release of arsenic from sediments into Bangladesh's drinking well water.<br><br>METHODS: Drinking well water samples were collected during a national-scale survey in Bangladesh. The dissolved oxygen concentration, oxidation-reduction potential, specific conductance, pH, and temperature were measured at sampling with calibrated portable electronic sensors. The arsenic concentration was measured by the silver diethyldithiocarbamate method.<br><br>RESULTS: As the concentration of dissolved oxygen decreases, the concentration of arsenic increases (p-value = 0.0028). Relatedly, as the oxidation-reduction potential decreases, the concentration of arsenic increases (p-value = 1.3&#xd7;10-5). This suggests that arsenic is released from sediments into Bangladesh's drinking well drinking water by reduction. As the specific conductance increases, the concentration of arsenic increases (p-value = 0.023). This suggests that arsenic is also released from sediments into water by the salt effect.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Rising sea levels can cause a decrease in the dissolved oxygen concentration and oxidation-reduction potential of the underlying aquifer; this should increase the dissolution of insoluble arsenate (H3-xAs(V)O4x-) in sediments by reduction. This, in turn, should release soluble arsenite (H3-xAs(III)O3x-) into the drinking well water. Rising sea levels can cause an increase in the salt concentration of the underlying aquifer; this should increase the release of arsenic from sediments into the drinking well water by the salt effect.}, }
@article {pmid38231833, year = {2023}, author = {Mertz, L}, title = {NASA Takes on Climate Change: Focusing Tech From Space to Earth.}, journal = {IEEE pulse}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {6-11}, doi = {10.1109/MPULS.2023.3344080}, pmid = {38231833}, issn = {2154-2317}, abstract = {When the Voyager 1 spacecraft was hurtling past Neptune to points beyond, its camera swung back to snap an image of Earth, a tiny spot of light in the vast, dark expanse. That 1990 image offered a stark reminder of just how vulnerable our planet is. The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) remains focused on space exploration today, but is also providing an Earth-side role, notably in understanding climate change and how it affects human health, and in inspiring new research and products to help people cope with varying weather patterns and the threats they bring.}, }
@article {pmid38229555, year = {2024}, author = {Álvarez, HA and Ruano, F}, title = {Phenotypic plasticity of a winter-diapause mechanism copes with the effects of summer global warming in an ectothermic predator.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {20230481}, doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2023.0481}, pmid = {38229555}, issn = {1744-957X}, abstract = {To adapt to changes in temperature, animals tend to invest more energy in thermal tolerance to enhance survival, which can have simultaneous costs on plastic traits. Would a decrease in genetic variability, due to global warming, affect the ability of populations with existing metabolic regulatory mechanisms to cope with extreme temperatures? To address this question, we conducted a series of experiments based on the A1B scenario of global warming, assessing within-population genetic variance in (a) morphological traits, (b) metabolic rate allometries, and (c) survival of a winter-diapausing predator ectotherm. Our study focused on the lacewing species Chrysoperla pallida, using both exogamic and endogamic artificial genetic lines. We discovered that both lines use their winter-diapausing phenotype to adapt to summer extreme temperatures caused by extreme heating conditions, but the exogamic line is prone to express phenotypic plasticity in metabolic scaling, with a trade-off between body size and mandible size, i.e. larger individuals tended to develop smaller mandibles to better survive. These findings highlight the significance of substantial phenotypic plasticity and pre-existing metabolic regulatory mechanisms in enabling ectotherms to cope with potential extreme heating occurring in global warming.}, }
@article {pmid38228330, year = {2024}, author = {Stancliffe, R and Eling, J and Barker, J}, title = {Climate change is a clear and present danger to health, says UKHSA.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {384}, number = {}, pages = {q66}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.q66}, pmid = {38228330}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid38228793, year = {2024}, author = {Marmontel, M and Fleischmann, A and Val, A and Forsberg, B}, title = {Safeguard Amazon's aquatic fauna against climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {625}, number = {7995}, pages = {450}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-024-00114-8}, pmid = {38228793}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38227667, year = {2024}, author = {Hogan, JA and Domke, GM and Zhu, K and Johnson, DJ and Lichstein, JW}, title = {Climate change determines the sign of productivity trends in US forests.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {4}, pages = {e2311132121}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2311132121}, pmid = {38227667}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {21-JV-11242305-097//USDA | U.S. Forest Service (FS)/ ; }, abstract = {Forests are integral to the global land carbon sink, which has sequestered ~30% of anthropogenic carbon emissions over recent decades. The persistence of this sink depends on the balance of positive drivers that increase ecosystem carbon storage-e.g., CO2 fertilization-and negative drivers that decrease it-e.g., intensifying disturbances. The net response of forest productivity to these drivers is uncertain due to the challenge of separating their effects from background disturbance-regrowth dynamics. We fit non-linear models to US forest inventory data (113,806 plot remeasurements in non-plantation forests from ~1999 to 2020) to quantify productivity trends while accounting for stand age, tree mortality, and harvest. Productivity trends were generally positive in the eastern United States, where climate change has been mild, and negative in the western United States, where climate change has been more severe. Productivity declines in the western United States cannot be explained by increased mortality or harvest; these declines likely reflect adverse climate-change impacts on tree growth. In the eastern United States, where data were available to partition biomass change into age-dependent and age-independent components, forest maturation and increasing productivity (likely due, at least in part, to CO2 fertilization) contributed roughly equally to biomass carbon sinks. Thus, adverse effects of climate change appear to overwhelm any positive drivers in the water-limited forests of the western United States, whereas forest maturation and positive responses to age-independent drivers contribute to eastern US carbon sinks. The future land carbon balance of forests will likely depend on the geographic extent of drought and heat stress.}, }
@article {pmid38224937, year = {2024}, author = {Ueta, H and Kodera, S and Sugimoto, S and Hirata, A}, title = {Projection of future heat-related morbidity in three metropolitan prefectures of Japan based on large ensemble simulations of climate change under 2 °C global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118202}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118202}, pmid = {38224937}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Recently, global warming has become a prominent topic, including its impacts on human health. The number of heat illness cases requiring ambulance transport has been strongly linked to increasing temperature and the frequency of heat waves. Thus, a potential increase in the number of cases in the future is a concern for medical resource management. In this study, we estimated the number of heat illness cases in three prefectures of Japan under 2 °C global warming scenarios, approximately corresponding to the 2040s. Based on the population composition, a regression model was used to estimate the number of heat illness cases with an input parameter of time-dependent meteorological ambient temperature or computed thermophysiological response of test subjects in large-scale computation. We generated 504 weather patterns using 2 °C global warming scenarios. The large-scale computational results show that daily amount of sweating increased twice and the core temperature increased by maximum 0.168 °C, suggesting significant heat strain. According to the regression model, the estimated number of heat illness cases in the 2040s of the three prefectures was 1.90 (95%CI: 1.35-2.38) times higher than that in the 2010s. These computational results suggest the need to manage ambulance services and medical resource allocation, including intervention for public awareness of heat illnesses. This issue will be important in other aging societies in near future.}, }
@article {pmid38224891, year = {2024}, author = {Jiao, K and Liu, Z and Wang, W and Yu, K and Mcgrath, M and Xu, W}, title = {Carbon cycle responses to climate change across China's terrestrial ecosystem: Sensitivity and driving process.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {170053}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170053}, pmid = {38224891}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Investigations into the carbon cycle and how it responds to climate change at the national scale are important for a comprehensive understanding of terrestrial carbon cycle and global change issues. Contributions of carbon fluxes to the terrestrial sink and the effects on climate change are still not fully understood. In this study, we aimed to explore the relationship between ecosystem production (GPP/SIF/NDVI) and net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) and to investigate the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climate change at different spatio-temporal scales. Furthermore, we sought to delve into the carbon cycle processes driven by climate stress in China since the beginning of the 21st century. To achieve these objectives, we employed correlation and sensitivity analysis techniques, utilizing a wide range of data sources including ground-based observations, remote sensing observations, atmospheric inversions, machine learning, and model simulations. Our findings indicate that NEE in most arid regions of China is primarily driven by ecosystem production. Climate variations have a greater influence on ecosystem production than respiration. Warming has negatively impacted ecosystem production in Northeast China, as well as in subtropical and tropical regions. Conversely, increased precipitation has strengthened the terrestrial carbon sink, particularly in the northern cool and dry areas. We also found that ecosystem respiration exhibits heightened sensitivity to warming in southern China. Moreover, our analysis revealed that the control of terrestrial carbon cycle by ecosystem production gradually weakens from cold/arid areas to warm/humid areas. We identified distinct temperature thresholds (ranging from 10.5 to 13.7 °C) and precipitation thresholds (approximately 1400 mm yr[-1]) for the transition from production-dominated to respiration-dominated processes. Our study provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between climate change and carbon cycle in China.}, }
@article {pmid38225426, year = {2024}, author = {}, title = {European monitoring of genetic diversity must expand to detect impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38225426}, issn = {2397-334X}, }
@article {pmid38225425, year = {2024}, author = {Pearman, PB and Broennimann, O and Aavik, T and Albayrak, T and Alves, PC and Aravanopoulos, FA and Bertola, LD and Biedrzycka, A and Buzan, E and Cubric-Curik, V and Djan, M and Fedorca, A and Fuentes-Pardo, AP and Fussi, B and Godoy, JA and Gugerli, F and Hoban, S and Holderegger, R and Hvilsom, C and Iacolina, L and Kalamujic Stroil, B and Klinga, P and Konopiński, MK and Kopatz, A and Laikre, L and Lopes-Fernandes, M and McMahon, BJ and Mergeay, J and Neophytou, C and Pálsson, S and Paz-Vinas, I and Posledovich, D and Primmer, CR and Raeymaekers, JAM and Rinkevich, B and Rolečková, B and Ruņģis, D and Schuerz, L and Segelbacher, G and Kavčič Sonnenschein, K and Stefanovic, M and Thurfjell, H and Träger, S and Tsvetkov, IN and Velickovic, N and Vergeer, P and Vernesi, C and Vilà, C and Westergren, M and Zachos, FE and Guisan, A and Bruford, M}, title = {Monitoring of species' genetic diversity in Europe varies greatly and overlooks potential climate change impacts.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38225425}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {PID2020-118028GB-I00//Ministerio de Econom&#xed;a, Industria y Competitividad, Gobierno de Espa&#xf1;a (Ministerio de Econom&#xed;a, Industria y Competitividad)/ ; 160022/F40 NINA//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d (Research Council of Norway)/ ; 2020-01290//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas (Swedish Research Council Formas)/ ; 2019-05503//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det (Swedish Research Council)/ ; }, abstract = {Genetic monitoring of populations currently attracts interest in the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity but needs long-term planning and investments. However, genetic diversity has been largely neglected in biodiversity monitoring, and when addressed, it is treated separately, detached from other conservation issues, such as habitat alteration due to climate change. We report an accounting of efforts to monitor population genetic diversity in Europe (genetic monitoring effort, GME), the evaluation of which can help guide future capacity building and collaboration towards areas most in need of expanded monitoring. Overlaying GME with areas where the ranges of selected species of conservation interest approach current and future climate niche limits helps identify whether GME coincides with anticipated climate change effects on biodiversity. Our analysis suggests that country area, financial resources and conservation policy influence GME, high values of which only partially match species' joint patterns of limits to suitable climatic conditions. Populations at trailing climatic niche margins probably hold genetic diversity that is important for adaptation to changing climate. Our results illuminate the need in Europe for expanded investment in genetic monitoring across climate gradients occupied by focal species, a need arguably greatest in southeastern European countries. This need could be met in part by expanding the European Union's Birds and Habitats Directives to fully address the conservation and monitoring of genetic diversity.}, }
@article {pmid38224556, year = {2024}, author = {Yohannessen, K}, title = {Climate change impacts childhood.}, journal = {Medwave}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.5867/medwave.2024.01.2805}, pmid = {38224556}, issn = {0717-6384}, }
@article {pmid38224060, year = {2024}, author = {Pardon, MK and Dimmock, J and Chande, R and Kondracki, A and Reddick, B and Davis, A and Athan, A and Buoli, M and Barkin, JL}, title = {Mental health impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on mothers.}, journal = {European journal of psychotraumatology}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2296818}, doi = {10.1080/20008066.2023.2296818}, pmid = {38224060}, issn = {2000-8066}, abstract = {Background: The perinatal period is a time of increased vulnerability for perinatal mood and anxiety disorders (PMADs). Emotional trauma is a risk factor for PMAD development and is common among survivors of extreme weather events (EWEs), which are becoming more frequent and intense as the climate crisis progresses. EWE-related stress and anxiety have not been extensively studied in the perinatal population. However, the limited available data suggest a negative impact of EWE exposure on perinatal mental health, warranting further investigation and investment.Objective: To address this knowledge gap, we interviewed new Australian mothers to understand how EWEs affect the mental health of the perinatal population.Method: Australian mothers (18 years of age or older) with a baby under 12 months of age were recruited to participate in a single virtual focus group session (seven group sessions were run in total) and complete an anonymous survey. Participants were asked questions regarding their concerns about extreme weather and its impact, as well as their general maternal functioning. Maternal functioning, depression, and climate distress were measured via the survey.Results: The study sample comprised 31 Australian mothers (Mage = 31.74, SD = 4.86), predominantly located in Queensland. Findings from the focus groups suggested six key themes; however, of focus to this study are three themes related to maternal mental health: health and well-being, helplessness and avoidant coping, and resilience and adaptation. Predominant subthemes focused on trauma resulting from EWE exposure, economic and heat concerns, social isolation, hopelessness about the future, and feelings of resilience.Conclusions: The evidence linking adverse perinatal mental health outcomes with climate change and EWEs highlights the urgent need for interventions in this context to protect perinatal mental health and well-being. By acknowledging the traumatic impact of these experiences on mothers, this study supports advocacy for policies that specifically address this issue.}, }
@article {pmid38221868, year = {2024}, author = {Montoro, J and Antolín-Amérigo, D and Artés, M and Izquierdo-Domínguez, A and Zapata, JJ and Mur, P and Carrillo, T and Antépara, I and Feo, F and Moral, A and Valero, A}, title = {Impact of climate change-related environmental factors on the allergens production and the epidemiology and severity of allergic pathologies.}, journal = {Journal of investigational allergology &amp; clinical immunology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {0}, doi = {10.18176/jiaci.0988}, pmid = {38221868}, issn = {1018-9068}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Allergic disease affects up to 40% of the global adult population, a proportion that is increasing with environmental changes related to global warming.<br><br>METHODS: We undertook a systematic review of the literature to identify and evaluate the current evidence of the impact of climate change-related environmental factors on the allergen production and the epidemiology and severity of allergic pathologies. PECO criteria were established and guided the literature searches of the PubMed and Cochrane databases (Jan 1, 2016 to Dec 31, 2021). Study outcomes were categorized and grouped to facilitate data synthesis. Outcomes were classified as significant (statistical significance <0.05), non-significant (p>0.05) or undetermined (p value not reported). Study quality was assessed using MMAT analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 195 studies, 40 were considered relevant and 9 of them provided data to be included in the data quantitative synthesis. Environmental factors, including the presence of pollutants, temperature, and drought, influenced the type, volume, and timing of exposure to local aeroallergens. The most relevant environmental factor was the presence of environmental pollutants, of which tropospheric ozone was the most frequently associated to changes in allergen production, prevalence, and severity of allergic disease. Also, several publications demonstrated the impact of environmental factors on the healthcare burden.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate-change related environmental factors increased allergic disease in terms of prevalence, severity, and healthcare burden due to alterations in allergen exposure (volume and type) with the presence of pollutants such as ozone being the most commonly reported driver of such increase.}, }
@article {pmid38221599, year = {2024}, author = {Walter, TG and Bricknell, LK and Preston, RG and Crawford, EGC}, title = {Climate Change Adaptation Methods for Public Health Prevention in Australia: an Integrative Review.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38221599}, issn = {2196-5412}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change poses a serious threat to human health and well-being. Australia is not immune to the public health impacts and continues to be underprepared, putting the population health at risk. However, there is a dearth in knowledge about how the Australian public health system will address the impacts of climate change.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: This integrative review synthesises tools, frameworks, and guidance material suitable for climate change adaptation from a preventive public health perspective. The literature search was conducted in electronic databases MEDLINE, PubMed, CINAHL, and Web of Science. Of 4507 articles identified, 19 articles met the inclusion criteria that focused on operational methods in public health and excluded the clinical context and reactive disaster response approaches. This review revealed that Australia is ill-prepared to manage climate change adverse health impacts due to ineffective adaptation strategies. The review highlights that Australia urgently requires effective adaptation strategies such as undertaking a National Adaptation Plan process and an improved understanding in managing complex health risks. Taking this action will strengthen the public health system and build health resilience especially for vulnerable populations. These findings will help understand and develop of the necessary adaptive strategies in Australia.}, }
@article {pmid38221585, year = {2024}, author = {Marzouk, M and Azab, S}, title = {Modeling climate change adaptation for sustainable coastal zones using GIS and AHP.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {2}, pages = {147}, pmid = {38221585}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {The world is currently confronting one of its biggest environmental challenges: combating climate change. Coastal zones are one of the areas thought to be most sensitive to current and future climate change threats. The paper integrates Remote Sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to detect vulnerable areas from climate change impacts in coastal zones in order to recommend adaptation systems in new coastal zones that can withstand various climatic changes. The proposed decision-making framework was developed in three phases: 1) climate data collection and processing; 2) Coastal Climate Impact Assessment (CCIA) model development; and 3) implementation and adaptation system selection. The climate data collection and processing phase involves determining the most significant climate change parameters and their indicators that affect coastal zone stability, extracting climatic data indicators from different climate database sources, and prioritizing the selected indicators. The indicators' weights were estimated using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) through a questionnaire survey shared with experts in climate change impacts. A CCIA model development phase involves the formulation of the proposed model using GIS technique to discover the vulnerable areas according to the most dominant impact. The implementation and adaptation system selection phase involves the application of the framework to Al-Alamein New City in Egypt. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the behavior of several climate change parameters to identify the most critical parameter for climate change in Al-Alamein New City. The results showed that the geology of the region is the most crucial component influenced by climate change. It is capable of producing a very sensitive area in the coastal zone while also taking other factors into account. When creating new urban neighborhoods, the erosion of the shoreline is the least important factor to consider. This is because coastal deterioration is caused by both the influence of metrological data on the region and the impact of human activity. Shoreline deterioration will be reduced if climate conditions are maintained while limiting the impact of human activities. To adapt to the long-term effects of climate change on coastal zones, a combination of soft and hard protection systems should be considered.}, }
@article {pmid38220075, year = {2024}, author = {Akhter, N and Aqeel, M and Shazia,  and Irshad, MK and Shehnaz, MM and Lee, SS and Noman, A and Syed, A and Bokhari, A and Bahkali, AH and Wong, LS}, title = {Differential capacity of phragmites ecotypes in remediation of inorganic contaminants in coastal ecosystems: Implications for climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {118127}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2024.118127}, pmid = {38220075}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Remediating inorganic pollutants is an important part of protecting coastal ecosystems, which are especially at risk from the effects of climate change. Different Phragmites karka (Retz) Trin. ex Steud ecotypes were gathered from a variety of environments, and their abilities to remove inorganic contaminants from coastal wetlands were assessed. The goal is to learn how these ecotypes might help reduce the negative impacts of climate change on coastal environments. The Phragmites karka ecotype E1, found in a coastal environment in Ichkera that was impacted by residential wastewater, has higher biomass production and photosynthetic pigment content than the Phragmites karka ecotypes E2 (Kalsh) and E3 (Gatwala). Osmoprotectant accumulation was similar across ecotypes, suggesting that all were able to successfully adapt to polluted marine environments. The levels of both total soluble sugars and proteins were highest in E2. The amount of glycine betaine (GB) rose across the board, with the highest levels being found in the E3 ecotype. The study also demonstrated that differing coastal habitats significantly influenced the antioxidant activity of all ecotypes, with E1 displaying the lowest superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity, while E2 exhibited the lowest peroxidase (POD) and catalase (CAT) activities. Significant morphological changes were evident in E3, such as an expansion of the phloem, vascular bundle, and metaxylem cell areas. When compared to the E3 ecotype, the E1 and E2 ecotypes showed striking improvements across the board in leaf anatomy. Mechanistic links between architectural and physio-biochemical alterations are crucial to the ecological survival of different ecotypes of Phragmites karka in coastal environments affected by climate change. Their robustness and capacity to reduce pollution can help coastal ecosystems endure in the face of persistent climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38219874, year = {2024}, author = {Li, WJ and Chen, PP and Sui, LY and Sun, SC}, title = {Temporal genetic variation mediated by climate change-induced salinity decline, a study on Artemia (Crustacea: Anostraca) from Kyêbxang Co, a high altitude salt lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.}, journal = {Gene}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {148160}, doi = {10.1016/j.gene.2024.148160}, pmid = {38219874}, issn = {1879-0038}, abstract = {The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is one of the areas the richest in salt lakes and Artemia sites. As a result of climate warming and wetting, the areas of salt lakes on the plateau have been increasing, and the salinities have decreased considerably since 1990s. However, the impact of salinity change on the genetic diversity of Artemia is still unknown. Kyêbxang Co is the highest (4620 m above sea level) salt lake currently with commercial harvesting of Artemia resting eggs in the world, and harbors the largest Artemia population on the plateau. Its salinity had dropped from ∼67 ppt in 1998 to ∼39 ppt in 2019. Using 13 microsatellite markers and the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase submit I (COI) gene, we analyzed the temporal changes of genetic diversity, effective population size and genetic structure of this Artemia population based on samples collected in 1998, 2007 and 2019. Our results revealed a steady decline of genetic diversity and significant genetic differentiation among the sampling years, which may be a consequence of genetic drift and the selection of decreased salinity. A decline of effective population size was also detected, which may be relative to the fluctuation in census population size, skewed sex ratio, and selection of the declined salinity. In 2007 and 2019, the Artemia population showed an excess of heterozygosity and significant deviation from Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (p < 0.001), which may be associated with the heterozygote advantage under low salinity. To comprehensively understand the impact of climate warming and wetting on Artemia populations on the plateau, further investigation with broad and intensive sampling are needed.}, }
@article {pmid38219754, year = {2024}, author = {Araf, Y and Akter, M and Zhai, J and Zheng, C and Hossain, MG}, title = {Emerging health implications of climate change: dengue outbreaks and beyond in Bangladesh.}, journal = {The Lancet. Microbe}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/S2666-5247(23)00366-X}, pmid = {38219754}, issn = {2666-5247}, }
@article {pmid38218627, year = {2024}, author = {Paek, HJ and Oh, HJ and Hove, T}, title = {Differential effects of digital media platforms on climate change risk information-sharing intention: A moderated mediation model.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.14270}, pmid = {38218627}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {HY-2022-3591//Hanyang University/ ; }, abstract = {This study analyzes the mechanisms through which risk messages about climate change lead to people's risk information-sharing intention, and how digital media platform type serves as a context that moderates those mechanisms. Our analysis is informed by the influence of presumed influence (IPI) model, and we adapt and expand that model in three ways. First, we apply the concept of perceived media reach to the context of digital media platforms, specifically news aggregators and social networking sites. Second, we integrate the two mediators of risk perception and presumed influence. Third, we examine potential moderating roles of digital media platforms in the IPI model. An online survey was conducted among 1000 South Korean adults, and a moderated mediation model (PROCESS Macro Model 59) generated the following results. (1) Perceived media reach was positively related to both mediators-risk perception and presumed influence. (2) By way of those two mediators, perceived reach significantly led to information-sharing intention. (3) Presumed influence, but not risk perception, was significantly related to information-sharing intention. (4) Digital media platforms moderated the relation between perceived reach and risk perception: the role of content-related risk perception was more pronounced in news aggregators, while the role of context-related presumed influence was greater in social networking sites. Theoretical and practical implications for risk communication are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid38218470, year = {2024}, author = {Cai, C and Hammerman, NM and Pandolfi, JM and Duarte, CM and Agusti, S}, title = {Influence of global warming and industrialization on coral reefs: A 600-year record of elemental changes in the Eastern Red Sea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {914}, number = {}, pages = {169984}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169984}, pmid = {38218470}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Red Sea has been recognized as a coral reef refugia, but it is vulnerable to warming and pollution. Here we investigated the spatial and temporal trends of 15 element concentrations in 9 coral reef sediment cores (aged from the 1460s to the 1980s AD) to study the influence of global warming and industrialization on the Eastern Red Sea coral reefs. We found Na, Ca, Cr, Fe, Co, Ni, and Sr concentrations were higher in the northern Red Sea (i.e., Yanbu), whereas Mg, P, S, Mn, and Cd concentrations were higher in the southern Red Sea (i.e., Thuwal &amp; Al Lith) reef sediments. In the central (i.e., Thuwal) to southern (i.e., Al Lith) Red Sea, the study revealed diverse temporal trends in element concentrations. However, both reef sedimentation rates (-36.4 % and -80.5 %, respectively) and elemental accumulation rates (-49.4 % for Cd to -12.2 % for Zn in Thuwal, and -86.2 % for Co to -61.4 % for Cu in Al Lith) exhibited a declining pattern over time, possibly attributed to warming-induced thermal bleaching. In the central to northern Red Sea (i.e., Yanbu), the severity of thermal bleaching is low, while the reef sedimentation rates (187 %), element concentrations (6.7 % for S to 764 % for Co; except Na, Mg, Ca, Sr, and Cd), and all elemental accumulation rates (190 % for Mg to 2697 % for Co) exponentially increased from the 1970s, probably due the rapid industrialization in Yanbu. Our study also observed increased trace metal concentrations (e.g., Cu, Zn, and Ni) in the Thuwal and Al Lith coral reefs with severe bleaching histories, consistent with previous reports that trace metals might result in decreased resistance of corals to thermal stress under warming scenarios. Our study points to the urgent need to reduce the local discharge of trace metal pollutants to protect this biodiversity hotspot.}, }
@article {pmid38216582, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, M and Yang, L and Su, M and Gong, W and Liu, Y and Yang, J and Huang, Y and Zhao, C}, title = {Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1220}, pmid = {38216582}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {QD2021A37//the Scientific research initiation project of Mianyang Normal University/ ; QD2023A01//the Scientific research initiation project of Mianyang Normal University/ ; XNYB22-05//the Foundation of Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education)/ ; 2023NSFSC0140//Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan, China/ ; ESP201302//the open project from the Ecological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province/ ; ESP2204//Ecological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province&#xff0c;Mianyang NormalUniversity/ ; }, abstract = {As an important woody oilseed species in China, Triadica sebifera is not only concerned with the substitution of traditional energy sources, but also plays a considerable role in coping with energy shortages. Accurately predicting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China and understanding its ecological needs are crucial for alleviating the energy crisis and effectively implementing energy substitution strategies. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China at contemporary and future periods was predicted based on the distribution data of Triadica sebifera in China and the environmental factor variables by Maxent model and ArcGIS software. The combination of important factors governing the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera was assessed by the contribution of environmental factor variables. The accuracy of Maxent model's predictions was assessed by AUC values, TSS values and Kappa statistics. The results show that: High AUC and TSS values indicate high accuracy and performance of the model. The crucial environmental factors limiting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera are the temperature factor (mean air temperature of the driest quarter), precipitation factor (precipitation of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month), and the intensity of human activities (hf). The total suitable area for Triadica sebifera is 233.64 × 10[4] km[2], primarily located in Yunnan, Sichuan, Hubei, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangdong province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; its high suitability area is 30.89 × 10[4] km[2], accounting for 13.22% of the total suitable area, mainly distributed in Jiangxi, Sichuan and Hunan provinces in the shape of a cake. Under the four typical greenhouse gas emission concentration patterns in the 2050s and 2070s, the areas of high and medium suitable areas for Triadica sebifera will increase, while the area of its low suitable area will decrease. However, the total suitable area will remain relatively unchanged. Its potential suitable habitats show a trend of shifting towards lower latitudes and southeast regions. The study predicted the pattern of Triadica sebifera under different climate change conditions, which can provide guidance for future cultivation of Triadica sebifera as well as for biofuel development and utilization.}, }
@article {pmid38215724, year = {2024}, author = {Mazzola, G and Patterson, D and Tahzib, F}, title = {Public health role in litigation to address climate change.}, journal = {European journal of public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/eurpub/ckad221}, pmid = {38215724}, issn = {1464-360X}, }
@article {pmid38213328, year = {2024}, author = {Vásquez, VN and Kueppers, LM and Rašić, G and Marshall, JM}, title = {Erratum: Publisher Correction: wMel replacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term climate change.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {106}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-023-01797-z}, pmid = {38213328}, issn = {1758-678X}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w.].}, }
@article {pmid38212575, year = {2024}, author = {Chen, Y and Möth, S and Winter, S and Willemen, L and Schwarz, N}, title = {Exploring Winegrowers' Behaviours and Ecological Impacts Under Climate Change and Policy Scenarios-Examples from Three European Winegrowing Regions.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38212575}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {E10004//Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)/ ; E10004//Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)/ ; E10004//Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)/ ; I 4025-B32//Austrian Science Fund/ ; I 4025-B32//Austrian Science Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Viticulture is an example of a socio-ecological system that poses serious challenges for sustainable soil management and pesticide use, with various interactions between winegrowers' decision-making and ecological consequences. This study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) on winegrowers' decision on inter-row management and pesticide use. The ABM builds upon an empirical study of winegrowers' decision-making in European viticultural landscapes and has been built for three case study regions: Leithaberg (Austria), Palatinate (Germany) and Târnave (Romania). The ABM allows for analysing potential effects of policy instruments including mandatory vegetation cover in the inter-rows, the reduction of fungicide use and ban of insecticides against Lobesia botrana. The effects of policies differ between the case study regions, indicating how important the local context is for effective policies. For example, policies aiming at higher inter-row vegetation cover had the strongest effects on vegetation cover, landscape aesthetics and soil loss in Târnave since many vineyards are currently intensively tilled and there exist no policies supporting inter-row vegetation cover in Romania.}, }
@article {pmid38212426, year = {2024}, author = {Cho, MS and Park, J}, title = {Spatiotemporal lake area changes influenced by climate change over 40 years in the Korean Peninsula.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1144}, pmid = {38212426}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Water resources in lakes of the Korean Peninsula play a significant role in society and ecosystems in both South and North Korea. This study characterized spatiotemporal changes in the lake area during the dry season (March-May) in the Korean Peninsula over the last 40 years. The satellite images (Landsat 5-9) were used to derive annual areas of 975 lakes during the dry season from 1984 to 2023. Our analysis indicated that the MNDWI is the optimal remote sensing-based index for delineating lake areas in the Korean Peninsula, with an overall accuracy of 92.3%. Based on the selected index, the total lake areas of the dry seasons have increased from 1070.7 km[2] in 1984 to 1659.3 km[2] in 2023, mainly due to newly constructed dam reservoirs. While the detailed changes in lake area vary, we found divergent results based on their sizes. The large lakes (> 10 km[2]) showed their area increased by 0.0473 km[2] (0.1%) every year and have more influences from climate change. On the contrary, the small lakes (≤ 10 km[2]) have area decreases by 0.0006-0.006 km[2] (0.15-0.5%) every year and have less influence from climate change. This study shows that the spatiotemporal lake area changes are determined by either climate change or human activity.}, }
@article {pmid38211866, year = {2024}, author = {Siddique, MT and García Molinos, J}, title = {Risk from future climate change to Pakistan's protected area network: A composite analysis for hotspot identification.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {169948}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169948}, pmid = {38211866}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {As climate change becomes a primary driver of global ecosystem deterioration and biodiversity loss, protected areas (PAs) are posed to play a crucial conservation role. At a global scale, 17 % of land is currently covered by PAs; a figure expected to reach 30 % by 2030 under the UN post-2020 global biodiversity framework. However, focusing only on the percent coverage of PAs without assessing their efficacy may not accomplish the intended conservation goals. Here, we present the first assessment of the risk from climate change to existing PAs and non-protected lands across Pakistan by combining data on the local exposure and vulnerability of 409 species of birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians to multidimensional changes in climate by mid (2040-2060) and late (2061-2080) century under two climate emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that between 7 % (2050 RCP4.5) and 19 % (2080 RCP8.5) of the current network of PAs, mostly located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country, are projected to be under future extreme risk (i.e., highly exposed areas containing highly vulnerable communities). Importantly, hotspots of risk within these PAs are projected to significantly expand over time and with increasing severity of the scenario. In contrast, PAs in the northern part of the country are projected to remain under moderate to low risk. Results are subject to variability across the country reflecting interesting differences in climate change exposure and species vulnerability between protected and non-protected lands. Importantly, significantly lower level of risks from future climate change are projected for PAs than non-protected lands across emission scenarios and periods suggesting potential candidate areas for the future expansion of the country's PA network. Our analysis provides novel insights that can help inform conservation decisions and management at a time when the country is investing in ambitious efforts to expand its network of protected areas.}, }
@article {pmid38207135, year = {2024}, author = {Peschel, AR and Shaw, RG}, title = {Comparing the Predicted versus Realized Rate of Adaptation of Chamaecrista fasciculata to Climate Change.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {203}, number = {1}, pages = {14-27}, doi = {10.1086/727507}, pmid = {38207135}, issn = {1537-5323}, abstract = {AbstractFisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection (FTNS) can be used in a quantitative genetics framework to predict the rate of adaptation in populations. Here, we estimated the capacity for a wild population of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata to adapt to future environments and compared predicted and realized rates of adaptation. We planted pedigreed seeds from one population into three prairie reconstructions along an east-to-west decreasing precipitation gradient. The FTNS predicted adaptation at all sites, but we found a response to selection that was smaller at the home and westernmost sites and maladaptive at the middle site because of changes in the selective environment between generations. However, mean fitness of the progeny generation at the home and westernmost sites exceeded population replacement, which suggests that the environment was sufficiently favorable to promote population persistence. More studies employing the FTNS are needed to clarify the degree to which predictions of the rate of adaptation are realized and its utility in the conservation of populations at risk of extinction from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38205585, year = {2024}, author = {Slingo, JM and Slingo, ME}, title = {The science of climate change and the effect of anaesthetic gas emissions.}, journal = {Anaesthesia}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/anae.16189}, pmid = {38205585}, issn = {1365-2044}, abstract = {The dedication of the international anaesthetic community to reducing the environmental impact of healthcare is important and to be celebrated. When this is underpinned by robust science, it has the potential to make a real difference. However, volatile anaesthetic agents have been widely promoted in the medical literature as damaging to the climate, leading to a drive to remove them from clinical practice. This is based on notional 'CO2 -equivalent' values created using the simple emission metric known as the global warming potential. Here, we assert that when proper consideration is given to the science of climate change, volatile anaesthetic gas emissions cannot be simply equated to real carbon dioxide emissions, and that their climate impact is vanishingly small. This paper gives anaesthetists a framework to make informed choices founded on climate science and calls for attention to be refocused on the urgent need to reduce the real carbon dioxide emissions associated with healthcare.}, }
@article {pmid38205028, year = {2024}, author = {Wood Hansen, O and van den Bergh, J}, title = {Environmental problem shifting from climate change mitigation: A mapping review.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {pgad448}, pmid = {38205028}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {Climate change mitigation will trigger major changes in human activity, energy systems, and material use, potentially shifting pressure from climate change to other environmental problems. We provide a comprehensive overview of such "environmental problem shifting" (EPS). While there is considerable research on this issue, studies are scattered across research fields and use a wide range of terms with blurred conceptual boundaries, such as trade-off, side effect, and spillover. We identify 506 relevant studies on EPS of which 311 are empirical, 47 are conceptual-theoretical, and 148 are synthetic studies or reviews of a particular mitigation option. A systematic mapping of the empirical studies reveals 128 distinct shifts from 22 categories of mitigation options to 10 environmental impacts. A comparison with the recent IPCC report indicates that EPS literature does not cover all mitigation options. Moreover, some studies systematically overestimate EPS by not accounting for the environmental benefits of reduced climate change. We propose to conceptually clarify the different ways of estimating EPS by distinguishing between gross, net, and relative shifting. Finally, the ubiquity of EPS calls for policy design which ensures climate change mitigation that minimizes unsustainability across multiple environmental dimensions. To achieve this, policymakers can regulate mitigation options-for example, in their choice of technology or location-and implement complementary environmental policies.}, }
@article {pmid38202431, year = {2023}, author = {Ainsworth, A and Drake, DR}, title = {Hawaiian Treeline Ecotones: Implications for Plant Community Conservation under Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {38202431}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {(http://pi-casc.soest.hawaii.edu/index.php)//Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center/ ; (http://www.botany.hawaii.edu/)//University of Hawai'i at M&#x101;noa Botany Department/ ; (https://www.nps.gov/training/hoalstmagrant.htm)//National Park Service Albright-Wirth Grant/ ; }, abstract = {Species within tropical alpine treeline ecotones are predicted to be especially sensitive to climate variability because this zone represents tree species' altitudinal limits. Hawaiian volcanoes have distinct treeline ecotones driven by trade wind inversions. The local climate is changing, but little is known about how this influences treeline vegetation. To predict future impacts of climate variability on treelines, we must define the range of variation in treeline ecotone characteristics. Previous studies highlighted an abrupt transition between subalpine grasslands and wet forest on windward Haleakalā, but this site does not represent the diversity of treeline ecotones among volcanoes, lava substrates, and local climatic conditions. To capture this diversity, we used data from 225 plots spanning treelines (1500-2500 m) on Haleakalā and Mauna Loa to characterize ecotonal plant communities. Treeline indicator species differ by moisture and temperature, with common native species important for wet forest, subalpine woodland, and subalpine shrubland. The frequency or abundance of community indicator species may be better predictors of shifting local climates than the presence or absence of tree life forms per se. This study further supports the hypothesis that changes in available moisture, rather than temperature, will dictate the future trajectory of Hawaiian treeline ecotone communities.}, }
@article {pmid38202376, year = {2023}, author = {Lal, R and Chauhan, S and Kaur, A and Jaryan, V and Kohli, RK and Singh, R and Singh, HP and Kaur, S and Batish, DR}, title = {Projected Impacts of Climate Change on the Range Expansion of the Invasive Straggler Daisy (Calyptocarpus vialis) in the Northwestern Indian Himalayan Region.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {38202376}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Human-induced climate change modifies plant species distribution, reorganizing ecologically suitable habitats for invasive species. In this study, we identified the environmental factors that are important for the spread of Calyptocarpus vialis, an emerging invasive weed in the northwestern Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), along with possible habitats of the weed under current climatic scenarios and potential range expansion under several representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using MaxEnt niche modeling. The prediction had a high AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.894 ± 0.010 and a remarkable correlation between the test and expected omission rates. BIO15 (precipitation seasonality; 38.8%) and BIO1 (annual mean temperature; 35.7%) had the greatest impact on the probable distribution of C. vialis, followed by elevation (11.7%) and landcover (6.3%). The findings show that, unlike the current situation, "high" and "very high" suitability areas would rise while less-suited habitats would disappear. All RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) indicate the expansion of C. vialis in "high" suitability areas, but RCP 4.5 predicts contraction, and RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 predict expansion in "very high" probability areas. The current distribution of C. vialis is 21.59% of the total area of the state, with "medium" to "high" invasion suitability, but under the RCP 8.5 scenario, it might grow by 10% by 2070. The study also reveals that C. vialis may expand its niche at both lower and higher elevations. This study clarifies how bioclimatic and topographic factors affect the dispersion of invasive species in the biodiverse IHR. Policymakers and land-use managers can utilize the data to monitor C. vialis hotspots and develop scientifically sound management methods.}, }
@article {pmid38201183, year = {2024}, author = {Erdogan, S and Kartal, MT and Pata, UK}, title = {Does Climate Change Cause an Upsurge in Food Prices?.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {38201183}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {Climate change is the reason behind most contemporary economic problems. The rising inflationary pressures in the food sector are one of these problems, and stable food prices are a necessity for economic development and social cohesion in societies. Therefore, this study analyzes the relationship between food prices and climate change in Nigeria by using various non-linear and quantile-based methods and data from 2008m5 to 2020m12. The empirical findings indicate that (i) there is a time- and frequency-based dependence between food prices and some explanatory variables, including climate change (i.e., temperature). (ii) At higher quantiles, temperature, oil prices, food exports, monetary expansion, global food prices, agricultural prices, and fertilizer prices stimulate food prices. (iii) The increase in food prices due to the rise in temperature and the difficulties in agriculture indicate that the heatflation phenomenon is present in Nigeria. The evidence outlines that Nigerian decisionmakers should adopt a national food security policy that considers environmental, agricultural, and monetary factors to stabilize food prices.}, }
@article {pmid38200803, year = {2023}, author = {Sake, B and Volkmann, N and Kemper, N and Schulz, J}, title = {Heat Stress Trends in Regions of Intensive Turkey Production in Germany-A Challenge in Times of Climate Change.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {38200803}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {n.a.//Tierseuchenkasse Niedersachsen/ ; }, abstract = {This study analyzed trends of enthalpy and the temperature-humidity index (THI) over a period of 50 years in outer air, which lead to severe heat stress in turkeys. Weather station data from 15 German districts with high densities of turkey production were used to investigate the heat input into the barns. Therefore, the parameters of enthalpy and THI with specified thresholds were used for heat stress assessment. Trends in extreme weather situations where these thresholds were exceeded were analyzed and tested for significance using the Mann-Kendall test. In all districts, the heat load increased between 1973 and 2022 for both parameters. Statistically significant heat stress trends were found in 9 of the 15 districts for enthalpy and 14 out of 15 districts for THI. Thus, the established THI thresholds seem to be more sensitive for the detection of heat stress than the chosen enthalpy values. As heat stress is an important issue and a rising concern in times of climate change, farmers and constructors of farm animal facilities should take this into account in future sustainable work.}, }
@article {pmid38199377, year = {2024}, author = {Allegri, E and Zanetti, M and Torresan, S and Critto, A}, title = {Pluvial flood risk assessment for 2021-2050 under climate change scenarios in the Metropolitan City of Venice.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {914}, number = {}, pages = {169925}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169925}, pmid = {38199377}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Pluvial flood is a natural hazard occurring from extreme rainfall events that affect millions of people around the world, causing damages to their properties and lives. The magnitude of projected climate risks indicates the urgency of putting in place actions to increase climate resilience. Through this study, we develop a Machine Learning (ML) model to predict pluvial flood risk under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for future scenarios of precipitation for the period 2021-2050, considering different triggering factors and precipitation patterns. The analysis is focused on the case study area of the Metropolitan City of Venice (MCV) and considers 212 historical pluvial flood events occurred in the timeframe 1995-2020. The methodology developed implements spatio-temporal constraints in the ML model to improve pluvial flood risk prediction under future scenarios of climate change. Accordingly, a cross-validation approach was applied to frame a model able to predict pluvial flood at any time and space. This was complemented with historical pluvial flood data and the selection of nine triggering factors representative of territorial features that contribute to pluvial flood events. Logistic Regression was the most reliable model, with the highest AUC score, providing robust result both in the validation and test set. Maximum cumulative rainfall of 14 days was the most important feature contributing to pluvial flood occurrence. The final output is represented by a suite of risk maps of the flood-prone areas in the MCV for each quarter of the year for the period 1995-2020 based on historical data, and risk maps for each quarter of the period 2021-2050 under RCP4.5 and 8.5 of future precipitation scenarios. Overall, the results underline a consistent increase in extreme events (i.e., very high and extremely high risk of pluvial flooding) under the more catastrophic scenario RCP8.5 for future decades compared to the baseline.}, }
@article {pmid38198451, year = {2024}, author = {Ji, H and Wei, X and Ma, D and Wang, X and Liu, Q}, title = {Predicting the global potential distribution of two major vectors of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever under conditions of global climate change.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {e0011883}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0011883}, pmid = {38198451}, issn = {1935-2735}, abstract = {Rocky Mountain spotted fever is a tick-borne disease that is highly dangerous but often overlooked by the public. To prevent the spread of the disease, it is important to understand the distribution patterns of its vectors' suitable areas. This study aims to explore the potential global suitability of areas for the vectors of Rocky Mountain spotted fever, including Dermacentor variabilis and Amblyomma cajennense under both historical and future climate scenarios. The study also seeks to investigate the impact of climatic factors on the distribution patterns of these vectors. Data on species distribution were downloaded from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Web of Science and PubMed database. The climatic variables were downloaded from WorldClim Global Climate Database. The Maximum Entropy Model was used to evaluate the contribution of monthly precipitation, monthly maximum temperature, monthly minimum temperature, elevation, and nineteen other climatic variables to vector survival, as well as to predict the suitable area for the vectors. We found that D. variabilis is distributed in North America, while A. cajennense is mainly distributed in South America, but all other continents except Antarctica have a suitable distribution. D. variabilis is more likely to survive in temperate regions, and A. cajennense is more likely to survive in tropical zones. D. variabilis is more sensitive to temperature, whereas A. cajennense is sensitive to both temperature and precipitation, and A. cajennense prefers tropical regions with hot and humid characteristics. The high suitable areas of both vectors were almost expanded in the ssp5-8.5 scenario, but not so much in the ssp1-2.6 scenario. Highly suitable areas with vectors survival should be strengthened with additional testing to prevent related diseases from occurring, and other highly suitable areas should be alert for entry and exit monitoring to prevent invasion and colonization of vectors.}, }
@article {pmid38198444, year = {2024}, author = {Mohanty, RB and Mishra, AK and Mishra, K and Yadava, AK and Quamar, MF and Barua, IC and Kar, R}, title = {Early onset of aridity in the past millennium: Insights from vegetation dynamics and climate change in the alpine, cold-desert region of Trans Himalaya, India.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {e0295785}, pmid = {38198444}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Himalayas ; India ; *Advance Directives ; Cognition ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Palynological analysis of surface soil and sub-surface sediments from the outwash plain of Hamtah Glacier, Lahaul-Spiti, India, has brought out the vegetation and climatic changes in the area during the last 1580 years. The arboreal and non-arboreal pollen ratio (AP/NAP) has been used to demarcate the different vegetation and climatic zones, complemented by the frequencies of the broad-leaved taxa. Lower values of thermophilous, broad-leaved arboreal taxa, indicate that the region experienced cold-arid conditions between 1580 and 1330 yr BP (AD 370-620); which can be related to the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP). Thereafter, between 1330 and 950 yr BP (AD 620-1000), a rejuvenation of the broad-leaved elements reflects the initiation of a comparatively warm and moist phase, marking the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA) in the region. The warm-moist phase was, however, short-lived, and from 950 yr BP to the Present (AD 1000 onwards), the region saw a return to cold-arid conditions, as evidenced by a sharp fall in the AP/NAP ratio. This cold-arid phase was, nevertheless, punctuated by a warm-moist period during 790 to 680 yr BP (AD 1160-1270), which marks the terminal phase of the MCA. After the termination of the MCA, the Little Ice Age (LIA) is well-marked in the area. The culmination of the long cold-arid regime is characterized by warmer conditions over the last 160 years, which is the manifestation of the Current Warm Period (CWP). Magnetic susceptibility (χlf) and sediment geochemistry (Weathering Index of Parker) were also attempted to have a multi-proxy approach, and show a general compatibility with the palynological data. The palaeoclimatic evidences suggest shorter warm periods and extended colder phases during the last 1580 years; in this high-altitude, cold-desert, Trans Himalayan region.}, }
@article {pmid38196071, year = {2024}, author = {Kumar, S and Prabhakar, M and Bhardwaj, DR and Thakur, CL and Kumar, J and Sharma, P}, title = {Altitudinal and aspect-driven variations in soil carbon storage potential in sub-tropical Himalayan forest ecosystem: assisting nature to combat climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {2}, pages = {126}, pmid = {38196071}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Nitrogen ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Forest soils serve as the greatest sink of terrestrial carbon (C) and have a significant impact on worldwide or regional C cycling. By reducing emissions and enhancing the C storage in forests, the environmental monitoring function of a forest ecosystem may be ensured. The study focused on measuring the densities of major nutrients in soil to gain insight into the C and nitrogen dynamics of the Himalayan sub-tropical forest ecosystem of India besides supplementing the information about the C storage potential of these forest soils. The study examined the physico-chemical properties and nutrient densities across three altitudinal ranges viz., 600-800 m (A1), 800-1000 m (A2) and 1000-1200 m (A3) and two aspects, i.e. Northern (N) and Southern (S) in a randomized complete block design and data collection was done from 24 main sample plots (3 altitudinal ranges × 2 aspects × 4 replications). The soil pH, electrical conductivity, and bulk density observed a decreasing pattern with an increase in altitude, whereas a reverse trend was observed in soil organic C (SOC), total nitrogen and available phosphorus. The SOC and total nitrogen densities ranged from 20.08 to 48.35 Mg ha[-1] and 2.56 to 4.01 Mg ha[-1], respectively in an increasing trend from A1 to A3. The northern aspect exhibited significantly higher SOC and nitrogen densities than the southern aspects. The C storage potential of forest soils followed the order A1 < A2 < A3 with significantly higher potential (nearly 1.5 times) compared to those on the southern aspect. There was a consistently significant increase in the C:N ratio (CNR) with a maximum value (10.51) at A3 and minimum value (8.37) at A1, however the effect of aspect remained insignificant. This research underscores the importance of considering altitude and aspect when planning forest restoration efforts, as these factors have a substantial influence on soil properties, C storage potential and CNR. Understanding the significance of CNR is critical, as it serves as a key indicator of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from forest soils. Ultimately, these findings empower policymakers and conservationists to make informed decisions that can contribute to the sustainable management of Himalayan forests and the global fight against climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38191706, year = {2024}, author = {Wong, C}, title = {Antibiotic resistance is a growing threat - is climate change making it worse?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38191706}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38191355, year = {2024}, author = {Hieronimi, A and O'Reilly, F and Schneider, M and Wermuth, I and Schulte-Körne, G and Lagally, L and Bose-O'Reilly, S and Danay, E}, title = {A Germany-wide survey of caregiving professionals on climate change and mental health of children and adolescents - factors influencing their relevance rating of extreme weather event associated mental health impairments.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {120}, pmid = {38191355}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Adolescent ; Mental Health ; Climate Change ; *Extreme Weather ; *Intellectual Disability ; Germany/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change presents a significant risk for the mental and physical health of young people. In order to identify and properly care for potential mental health impairments from extreme weather events, the relevance of these impairments must be assessed as high by the professional groups providing care for children and adolescents. This raises the question of which factors influence the individual relevance assessment of caretaking professionals?<br><br>METHODS: Data was collected creating and conducting a Germany-wide online questionnaire via LimeSurvey. The questionnaire was addressed to professionals providing care for children and adolescents, in this case medical and therapeutic personnel as well as school and pedagogical personnel. Professional associations, chief physicians and school principals were contacted as multipliers and asked to forward the questionnaire to their members and staff. The data was analyzed using the R statistical software, and multiple linear regressions were performed to test the hypotheses.<br><br>RESULTS: Overall, 648 questionnaires were taken into analysis. Approximately 70% of the participants considered climate change-induced impacts on the mental health of children and adolescents due to extreme weather events as relevant. Experiencing heat, storm, heavy precipitation, flood/flooding, and/or avalanches/mudflows made a modest yet significant contribution to explaining higher relevance assessments. In contrast, there was no evidence to suggest that an urban working environment increases the relevance assessment.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The described influence of experiencing extreme weather events should not be regarded as the sole factor leading to higher relevance ratings. A more comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing relevance assessments is necessary to address key aspects of risk communication and increase risk awareness.}, }
@article {pmid38190897, year = {2024}, author = {Grossi, F and Lagasio, M and Napoli, A and Provenzale, A and Tepsich, P}, title = {Phytoplankton spring bloom in the NW Mediterranean Sea under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {914}, number = {}, pages = {169884}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169884}, pmid = {38190897}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The spring phytoplankton bloom is the main event influencing ecosystem richness in the pelagic realm of the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea (NW Med Sea). The Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires the achievement of a good ecological status for the pelagic habitat, and phytoplankton bloom phenology has been used as an indicator of the status of offshore waters. In this work we investigate interannual changes in the timing and magnitude of the phytoplankton bloom in the NW Med Sea, using phenological metrics. Daily maps of Chl-a concentration from 1998 to 2022 obtained by CMEMS were used to analyse bloom phenological metrics in 5 representative sites in the area. Chlorophyll-a data from 1998 to 2007 were used for determining the climatological behaviour, while 2008-2022 was identified as the study period. For this latter period, yearly spring bloom were identified and interannual variability and overall trends were analysed for each of the phenological metrics considered. Winter oceanographic and meteorological data were analysed to investigate possible correlations with the subsequent spring bloom. The frequency of anomalous years is increasing, both for bloom intensity and sea temperature. Bloom analysis revealed a negative trend only in some areas, but a steep decrease in the last 7 years was noticeable for all sites considered. Correlations of the Chl-a concentration during bloom with oceanographic variables revealed the importance of temperature, both marine and atmospheric, while Mixed Layer Depth played a lesser role. This work contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics of an area already under severe threat from human activities.}, }
@article {pmid38190876, year = {2024}, author = {Carneiro, IM and Széchy, MTM and Bertocci, I and Paiva, PC}, title = {Impact of a nuclear power station effluent on marine forests: A case study in SE Brazil and insights for global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {123323}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2024.123323}, pmid = {38190876}, issn = {1873-6424}, abstract = {One of the main disturbances caused by coastal nuclear power plants is the discharge of thermal effluents capable of affecting a number of marine systems, including macroalgal forests that support key ecosystem services such as carbon uptake, fisheries increment and coastal protection. This study aimed at describing the long-term trend (1992-2022) in the abundance of Sargassum forests from sites located inside and outside areas affected by the thermal effluent discharged by the Brazilian Nuclear Power Station (BNPS) and at evaluating the relationship between Sargassum cover and different components of seawater. This information is interesting to provide insights on whether and how Sargassum populations would likely be affected by increasing temperature due to climate change. We detected a long-term decline in Sargassum cover inside, but not outside the area affected by the BNPS thermal plume. Mean summer surface seawater temperature above 30 °C was identified as an important factor driving the decline of Sargassum abundance, confirming experimental data for Sargassum populations from other regions of the Brazilian coast. This study highlights the impact caused by decades of discharge of the BNPS thermal effluent on Sargassum forests, which leads to predict the likely disappearance of marine forests under a climate change scenario in other sites situated in warm temperate regions.}, }
@article {pmid38190290, year = {2024}, author = {Logie, CH and Toccalino, D and MacKenzie, F and Hasham, A and Narasimhan, M and Donkers, H and Lorimer, N and Malama, K}, title = {Associations between climate change-related factors and sexual health: A scoping review.}, journal = {Global public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {2299718}, doi = {10.1080/17441692.2023.2299718}, pmid = {38190290}, issn = {1744-1706}, mesh = {Humans ; *Sexual Health ; *Sexually Transmitted Diseases/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *HIV Infections/epidemiology ; Sex Education ; }, abstract = {There is growing attention to the ways in which climate change may affect sexual health, yet key knowledge gaps remain across global contexts and climate issues. In response, we conducted a scoping review to examine the literature on associations between climate change and sexual health. We searched five databases (May 2021, September 2022). We reviewed 3,183 non-duplicate records for inclusion; n = 83 articles met inclusion criteria. Of these articles, n = 30 focused on HIV and other STIs, n = 52 focused on sexual and gender-based violence (GBV), and n = 1 focused on comprehensive sexuality education. Thematic analysis revealed that hurricanes, drought, temperature variation, flooding, and storms may influence HIV outcomes among people with HIV by constraining access to antiretroviral treatment and worsening mental health. Climate change was associated with HIV/STI testing barriers and worsened economic conditions that elevated HIV exposure (e.g. transactional sex). Findings varied regarding associations between GBV with storms and drought, yet most studies examining flooding, extreme temperatures, and bushfires reported positive associations with GBV. Future climate change research can examine understudied sexual health domains and a range of climate-related issues (e.g. heat waves, deforestation) for their relevance to sexual health. Climate-resilient sexual health approaches can integrate extreme weather events into programming.}, }
@article {pmid38189102, year = {2024}, author = {Hamlaci Baskaya, Y and Unlu Bidik, N and Yolcu, B}, title = {The effect of level of anxiety about climate change on the use of feminine hygiene products.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.15324}, pmid = {38189102}, issn = {1879-3479}, support = {//T&#xfc;rkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Ara&#x15f;t&#x131;rma Kurumu/ ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between women's menstrual hygiene product use and their level of concern around climate change as well as to identify the variables influencing this relationship.<br><br>METHODS: In all, 978 women between the ages of 18 and 49 who were of reproductive age participated in this descriptive cross-sectional study. The CHERRIES criteria were followed in conducting the online survey. Data were gathered using the "personal information form" and the Climate Change Anxiety Scale for Women's Health The data were analyzed using descriptive analysis, multiple linear regression, and logistic regression.<br><br>RESULTS: Women were more prone to using throwaway goods than eco-friendly, sanitary goods when their climate change worry level was lower. Age, education level, region of residence, and the intensity of menstrual bleeding have an impact on the hygiene products used during the menstrual cycle, whereas environmental pollution in the area of residence and a woman's allergy status have an impact on the level of climate change anxiety concerning a woman's health.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Women who are worried about how climate change will affect their health prefer to purchase sustainable/eco-friendly items. Starting in adolescence, women can receive advice about the use of sustainable products from health experts who are primarily responsible for women's health.}, }
@article {pmid38187346, year = {2024}, author = {Gyimah, J and Hayford, IS and Nyantakyi, G and Adu, PS and Batasuma, S and Yao, X}, title = {The era of global warming mitigation: The role of financial inclusion, globalization and governance institutions.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {e23471}, pmid = {38187346}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Several efforts have been undertaken by environmentalists, nations, and various international organizations towards the fight against carbon emissions. The continuity of the environment has been one of the main concerns of the international system and state and non-state actors and government institutions are encouraged to play their roles effectively. Therefore, the study assesses the effect of financial inclusion, globalization, and government institutions on carbon emissions. The study used data from 1996 to 2021 and employed FMOLS model for the analysis. The findings of the study confirm the pollution halo hypothesis implying globalization promotes environmental sustainability. However, financial inclusion and government institutions have no significant effect on global warming mitigation. Nevertheless, institutional governance encourages global warming while political stability promotes the fight against global warming, the effect of economic governance is not significant. Renewable energy and economic growth exhibit positive and negative effect, respectively, on environmental sustainability. The findings suggest the encouragement of the rule of law, political stability, and an effective low carbon trading system as part of the policy implications.}, }
@article {pmid38187286, year = {2024}, author = {Mellisse, BT and Tolera, M and Derese, A}, title = {Traditional homegardens change to perennial monocropping of khat (Catha edulis) reduced woody species and enset conservation and climate change mitigation potentials of the Wondo Genet landscape of southern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {e23631}, pmid = {38187286}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Smallholder farmers in the Wondo Genet were forced to switch from long-standing, diverse traditional home gardens to monoculture khat production due to increasing population pressure-induced farmland constraints. The composition of woody species and the biomass carbon stock are thought to drop as homegardens transition from polyculture to monoculture; however there is little quantitative evidence to support this claim. This study was started to assess the effects on woody species, enset, and biomass carbon of converting traditional homegardens to a fast spreading perennial monocropping of khat (Catha edulis Forskal). In 10 m × 10 m (100m2) plots from 43 farms with neighboring land use patterns for each homegarden and khat, woody species and enset were inventoried, the total number of tree, shrub, and enset species counted, as well as the height and diameter of each species measured. To determine the biomass carbon stock of each land use type, both general and species-specific allometric equations are used. Simpson's diversity index, Shannon-Wiener, and Shannon equitability were used to evaluate the diversity of enset and woody species. There were 27 different types of woody species identified, with trees making up 67 % of the total and shrubs accounting for 33 %. Shannon, Simpson, and the richness of woody species all decreased by 46 %, 51 %, and 38 %, respectively, in comparison to residential gardens. For homegardens and khat, respectively, the mean Evenness values were 0.876 and 0.539. In homegardens, Coffea arabica was the most valuable woody species, followed by Cordia africana Lam, Persea americana, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, and Grevillea Robusta. In contrast, Catha edulis was the most valuable woody species in the Khat land use type, followed by Coffea arabica, Croton macrostachyus Del, and Cordia africana. In comparison to homegardens, the above-ground, below-ground, and total biomass carbon reported in khat land use types were reduced by 18 %, 63 %, and 42 %, respectively. Grevillea and Eucalyptus species made up 51 % of the total biomass carbon stock in the homegardens, which suggests that khat and quickly expanding fast-growing plants have displaced native woody species.Understanding the long-term effects of agro-biodiversity loss requires greater research on the implications of the decline in woody species diversity and biomass carbon stock on soil fertility and sustainable farming. This is due to the numerous functions that woody species and enset play.}, }
@article {pmid38185141, year = {2024}, author = {Penserini, L and Moretti, A and Mainardis, M and Cantoni, B and Antonelli, M}, title = {Tackling climate change through wastewater reuse in agriculture: A prioritization methodology.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {914}, number = {}, pages = {169862}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169862}, pmid = {38185141}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water shortages, exacerbated by climate change, are posing a major global challenge, particularly impacting the agricultural sector. A growing interest is raised towards reclaimed wastewater (RWW) as an alternative irrigation source, capable of exploiting also the nutrient content through the fertigation practice. However, a prioritization methodology for selecting the most appropriate wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) for implementing direct RWW reuse is currently missing. Such prioritization would benefit water utilities, often managing several WWTPs, and policymakers in optimizing economic asset allocation. In this work, a prioritization framework is proposed to evaluate WWTPs' suitability for implementing direct RWW reuse considering both WWTP and surrounding territory characteristics. This procedure consists of four key steps. Firstly, a techno-economic model was developed, in which monthly mass balances on water and nutrients are solved by matching crop requirements, rainfall conditions, and effluent characteristics. Economic suitability was quantified considering economic benefits due to savings in freshwater resource, mineral fertilizers and avoided greenhouse gases emissions, but also losses in crop yield due to RWW salinity content. Secondly, a classification procedure was coded to select representative WWTPs among a set of WWTPs, based on their size, presence of nutrient removal processes, and type of crops in their surroundings. The techno-economic model was then applied to these selected WWTPs. Thirdly, input parameters' relevance in determining WWTP suitability for RWW reuse was ranked. Finally, scenario analyses were conducted to study the influence of rainfall patterns and nutrient treatment removal on the RWW reuse feasibility. The type of crops surrounding the WWTPs and RWW salinity content resulted to be crucial elements in determining WWTPs suitability for RWW reuse implementation. The proposed methodology proved to be an effective support tool for policymakers and water utilities to assess the techno-economic feasibility of direct RWW reuse, generalizing results to several combinations of WWTPs and crops.}, }
@article {pmid38184618, year = {2024}, author = {Lenton, TM and Abrams, JF and Bartsch, A and Bathiany, S and Boulton, CA and Buxton, JE and Conversi, A and Cunliffe, AM and Hebden, S and Lavergne, T and Poulter, B and Shepherd, A and Smith, T and Swingedouw, D and Winkelmann, R and Boers, N}, title = {Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {343}, pmid = {38184618}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {RPG-2018-046//Leverhulme Trust/ ; RPG-2018-046//Leverhulme Trust/ ; RPG-2018-046//Leverhulme Trust/ ; 4000123681/18/INB//European Space Agency (ESA)/ ; 951288//EC | EC Seventh Framework Programm | FP7 Ideas: European Research Council (FP7-IDEAS-ERC - Specific Programme: "Ideas" Implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration Activities (2007 to 2013))/ ; 820970//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 820970//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 01LS2001A//Bundesministerium f&#xfc;r Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research)/ ; 01LS2001A//Bundesministerium f&#xfc;r Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research)/ ; 956170//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 Marie Sk&#x142;odowska-Curie Actions (H2020 Excellent Science - Marie Sk&#x142;odowska-Curie Actions)/ ; }, abstract = {Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.}, }
@article {pmid38184245, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, A and Xiong, X and Zhou, G and Barmon, M and Li, A and Tang, X and Liu, J and Zhang, Q and Liu, S and Chu, G and Zhang, D}, title = {Climate change-related biodiversity fluctuations and composition changes in an old-growth subtropical forest: A 26-yr study.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {914}, number = {}, pages = {169899}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169899}, pmid = {38184245}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The detection and attribution of biodiversity change is of great scientific interest and central to policy effects aimed at meeting biodiversity targets. Yet, how such a diverse climate scenarios influence forest biodiversity and composition dynamics remains unclear, particularly in high diversity systems of subtropical forests. Here we used data collected from the permanent sample plot spanning 26 years in an old-growth subtropical forest. Combining various climatic events (extreme drought, subsequent drought, warming, and windstorm), we analyzed long-term dynamics in multiple metrics: richness, turnover, density, abundance, reordering and stability. We did not observe consistent and directional trends in species richness under various climatic scenarios. Still, drought and windstorm events either reduced species gains or increased species loss, ultimately increased species turnover. Tree density increased significantly over time as a result of rapid increase in smaller individuals due to mortality in larger trees. Climate events caused rapid changes in dominant populations due to a handful of species undergoing strong increases or declines in abundance over time simultaneously. Species abundance composition underwent significant changes, particularly in the presence of drought and windstorm events. High variance ratio and species synchrony weaken community stability under various climate stress. Our study demonstrates that all processes underlying forest community composition changes often occur simultaneously and are equally affected by climate events, necessitating a holistic approach to quantifying community changes. By recognizing the interconnected nature of these processes, future research should accelerate comprehensive understanding and predicting of how forest vegetation responds to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38183918, year = {2024}, author = {Demiralay, S and Wang, Y and Chen, C}, title = {Geopolitical risks and climate change stocks.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {352}, number = {}, pages = {119995}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119995}, pmid = {38183918}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {This paper aims to examine the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR), threats (GPT) and acts (GPA) on returns and volatilities of regional climate change stocks under different market conditions, employing quantile regressions. Our main results suggest that climate change stock returns positively (negatively) respond to GPR in bullish (bearish) market states, however the effect is not uniform across the regions. The volatilities mainly show a positive response to geopolitical tensions; geopolitical acts appear to have a more pronounced impact on volatilities than geopolitical threats. We further find that GPR leads to higher volatility during the Russia-Ukraine war, creating heightened uncertainty. Overall, the results reveal that geopolitical risks have an asymmetric and heterogenous impact on climate change stocks. The results provide significant insights and implications for financial market participants and policy makers.}, }
@article {pmid38179074, year = {2024}, author = {Dickinson, ER and McFarland, C and Toïgo, C and Michael Scantlebury, D and Stephens, PA and Marks, NJ and Morgan, ER}, title = {Host movement dominates the predicted effects of climate change on parasite transmission between wild and domestic mountain ungulates.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {230469}, pmid = {38179074}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Climate change is shifting the transmission of parasites, which is determined by host density, ambient temperature and moisture. These shifts can lead to increased pressure from parasites, in wild and domestic animals, and can impact the effectiveness of parasite control strategies. Understanding the interactive effects of climate on host movement and parasite life histories will enable targeted parasite management, to ensure livestock productivity and avoid additional stress on wildlife populations. To assess complex outcomes under climate change, we applied a gastrointestinal nematode transmission model to a montane wildlife-livestock system, based on host movement and changes in abiotic factors due to elevation, comparing projected climate change scenarios with the historic climate. The wildlife host, Alpine ibex (Capra ibex ibex), undergoes seasonal elevational migration, and livestock are grazed during the summer for eight weeks. Total parasite infection pressure was more sensitive to host movement than to the direct effect of climatic conditions on parasite availability. Extended livestock grazing is predicted to increase parasite exposure for wildlife. These results demonstrate that movement of different host species should be considered when predicting the effects of climate change on parasite transmission, and can inform decisions to support wildlife and livestock health.}, }
@article {pmid38177137, year = {2024}, author = {Lachs, L and Donner, SD and Mumby, PJ and Bythell, JC and Humanes, A and East, HK and Guest, JR}, title = {Author Correction: Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {281}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-023-44537-9}, pmid = {38177137}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid38176779, year = {2024}, author = {Ziska, LH}, title = {Climate change, plant composition, and human nutrition.}, journal = {The American journal of clinical nutrition}, volume = {119}, number = {1}, pages = {3-4}, doi = {10.1016/j.ajcnut.2023.11.002}, pmid = {38176779}, issn = {1938-3207}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Nutritional Status ; Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid38176553, year = {2024}, author = {Filippini, M and Segadelli, S and Dinelli, E and Failoni, M and Stumpp, C and Vignaroli, G and Casati, T and Tiboni, B and Gargini, A}, title = {Hydrogeological assessment of a major spring discharging from a calcarenitic aquifer with implications on resilience to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {913}, number = {}, pages = {169770}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169770}, pmid = {38176553}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Groundwater is a vital source of freshwater, serving ecological, environmental, and societal needs. In regions with springs as a predominant source, such as the Northern Apennines (Italy), resilience of these springs to climate-induced recharge changes is crucial for water supply and ecosystem preservation. In this study, Nadìa Spring in the Northern Apennines is examined through an unprecedented array of multidisciplinary analyses to understand its resilience and unique characteristics. The Nadìa Spring's exceptional response, characterized by a sustained base flow even in the face of drought, is attributed to a combination of factors including a substantial groundwater reservoir, a complex network of faults/fractures, slope instabilities, and karst dissolution. The investigation reveals a dual porosity system in the aquifer, consisting of fast-flow conduits and a diffuse fracture network. While fast-flow conduits contribute to rapid responses during high-flow conditions, the diffuse system becomes predominant during low-flow periods. This dual porosity structure helps the spring maintain a consistent base flow in the face of climate-induced recharge fluctuations. The study shows that Nadìa Spring exhibits remarkable resilience to year-to-year variations in recharge, as evidenced by stable minimum discharge values. While the spring has undergone a decline in discharge over the past century due to long-term climate change, it is becoming more resilient over interdecadal timescales due to transition to a diffuse drainage system that mitigates the impact of reduced recharge. The availability of a century-long spring discharge monitoring was a crucial piece of information for understanding the spring's discharge response and drawing conclusions about its long-term resilience to recharge fluctuations. Continuing long-term monitoring and research in the future will be essential to validate and expand upon these findings in the context of changing climatic conditions. This research serves as a model for assessing strategic groundwater discharge points in geological settings similar to the Northern Apennines.}, }
@article {pmid38176406, year = {2024}, author = {Carl, J and Abu-Omar, K and Bernard, P and Lohmann, J and White, P and Peters, J and Sahlqvist, S and Ma, J and Duncan, M and Barnett, LM}, title = {Physical Literacy in the Context of Climate Change: Is There a Need for Further Refinement of the Concept?.}, journal = {Journal of physical activity &amp; health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-4}, doi = {10.1123/jpah.2023-0714}, pmid = {38176406}, issn = {1543-5474}, abstract = {The concept of physical literacy (PL) has witnessed enormous popularity in recent years and has undergone substantial theoretical evolvement during the last 2 decades. However, the research field pertaining to PL has not yet initiated discussions around the challenges of climate change and the alignment with conceptualizations of planetary health. Therefore, we argue that the consideration of an "ecological domain" for individual physical activity, in the form of ecological awareness, would further evolve the concept. We illustrate how to potentially integrate adjustments within the most frequent PL definitions of the field (eg, those in Australia, Canada, England, Ireland, the United States, or by the International Physical Literacy Association) without questioning the entire integrity of these elaborate conceptualizations. An ecological domain of PL would not only interact with the postulated physical, cognitive, psychological/affective, and social domains of PL but also have important implications for the (re)design of interventions and practices in physical activity contexts. We call the scientific community, both on national and international scales, to intensify the discussions and initiate a research agenda involving an "ecological domain" of PL.}, }
@article {pmid38175881, year = {2024}, author = {Sidik, S}, title = {Plant waste buried at sea to fight climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {383}, number = {6678}, pages = {11-12}, doi = {10.1126/science.adn8377}, pmid = {38175881}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Carbon in forestry or agriculture debris could remain locked on sea floor for centuries.}, }
@article {pmid38175830, year = {2024}, author = {Hannah, E and Etter-Phoya, R and Lopez, M and Hall, S and O'Hare, B}, title = {Impact of higher-income countries on child health in lower-income countries from a climate change perspective. A case study of the UK and Malawi.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {e0002721}, pmid = {38175830}, issn = {2767-3375}, abstract = {Climate change is the number one threat to child health according to the World Health Organisation. It increases existing inequalities, and lower-income countries are disproportionately affected. This is unjust. Higher-income countries have contributed and continue to contribute more to climate change than lower-income countries. This has been recognised by the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child, which has ruled that states can be held responsible if their carbon emissions harm child rights both within and outside their jurisdiction. Nevertheless, there are few analyses of the bilateral relationship between higher- and lower-income countries concerning climate change. This article uses the UK and Malawi as a case study to illustrate higher-income countries' impact on child health in lower-income countries. It aims to assist higher-income countries in developing more targeted policies. Children in Malawi can expect more food insecurity and reduced access to clean water, sanitation, and education. They will be more exposed to heat stress, droughts, floods, air pollution and life-threatening diseases, such as malaria. In 2019, 5,000 Malawian children died from air pollution (17% of under-five deaths). The UK needs to pay its 'fair share' of climate finance and ensure adaptation is prioritised for lower-income countries. It can advocate for more equitable and transparent allocation of climate finance to support the most vulnerable countries. Additionally, the UK can act domestically to curtail revenue losses in Malawi and other lower-income countries, which would free up resources for adaptation. In terms of mitigation, the UK must increase its nationally determined commitments by 58% to reach net zero and include overseas emissions. Land use, heating systems and renewable energy must be reviewed. It must mandate comprehensive scope three emission reporting for companies to include impacts along their value chain, and support businesses, multinational corporations, and banks to reach net zero.}, }
@article {pmid38175631, year = {2024}, author = {Ebi, KL and Hess, JJ}, title = {Introduction to JAMA Climate Change and Health Series.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2023.25878}, pmid = {38175631}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid38175629, year = {2024}, author = {McDermott, MM and Bibbins-Domingo, K}, title = {Climate Change and Health-A New JAMA Series.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2023.27809}, pmid = {38175629}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid38174047, year = {2023}, author = {Poczai, P and D'Agostino, N and Deanna, R and Portis, E}, title = {Editorial: Solanaceae VIII: biodiversity, climate change and breeding.}, journal = {Frontiers in genetics}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1348372}, pmid = {38174047}, issn = {1664-8021}, }
@article {pmid38171455, year = {2024}, author = {Russo, D and Jones, G and Polizzi, M and Meola, V and Cistrone, L}, title = {Higher and bigger: How riparian bats react to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {913}, number = {}, pages = {169733}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169733}, pmid = {38171455}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The altitudinal distribution of animals and changes in their body size are effective indicators of climate change. Bats are sensitive to climate change due to their dependence on temperature during critical life stages. However, long-term studies documenting responses over extended periods are rare. We present a 24-year investigation of Myotis daubentonii, a riparian bat known for altitudinal sexual segregation, along a river course in Central Italy. While males occupy the entire river course, females are confined to downstream warmer areas supporting successful reproduction due to improved foraging site productivity. In 2000, females were absent above 900 m a.s.l in our study area. We hypothesise that a) this altitude threshold is now higher, due to thermal gradient changes along the river course; and b) thermoregulatory costs for reproductive females have declined, leading to increased energy investment in offspring and subsequent generational growth in bat body size. Confirming our hypotheses, females exhibited a 175-m upward shift in altitude limit. Furthermore, we found a concurrent increase in body size (but not condition). Temperatures increased in the 24 years, likely allowing females to extend their range to higher elevations and favouring an increase in newborn body mass. Riparian vegetation remained unchanged, excluding habitat quality changes as the cause for the observed responses. The rapid female elevation rise might imply future disruption of established social structures, altering intra- and intersexual competition for roosts and food. Given the global decline in insect populations, larger bats might face future difficulties in finding food to sustain their body size, increasing mortality. However, the full impact of such changes on bat fitness remains unexplored and warrants further investigation, including other bat populations. This knowledge is crucial for informing conservation in the face of ongoing climate change and preserving the ecosystem services bats deliver in riparian ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38169258, year = {2024}, author = {Shah, IH and Manzoor, MA and Jinhui, W and Li, X and Hameed, MK and Rehaman, A and Li, P and Zhang, Y and Niu, Q and Chang, L}, title = {Comprehensive review: Effects of climate change and greenhouse gases emission relevance to environmental stress on horticultural crops and management.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {351}, number = {}, pages = {119978}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119978}, pmid = {38169258}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Global climate change exerts a significant impact on sustainable horticultural crop production and quality. Rising Global temperatures have compelled the agricultural community to adjust planting and harvesting schedules, often necessitating earlier crop cultivation. Notably, climate change introduces a suite of ominous factors, such as greenhouse gas emissions (CGHs), including elevated temperature, increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) ozone depletion (O3), and deforestation, all of which intensify environmental stresses on crops. Consequently, climate change stands poised to adversely affect crop yields and livestock production. Therefore, the primary objective of the review article is to furnish a comprehensive overview of the multifaceted factors influencing horticulture production, encompassing fruits, vegetables, and plantation crops with a particular emphasis on greenhouse gas emissions and environmental stressors such as high temperature, drought, salinity, and emission of CO2. Additionally, this review will explore the implementation of novel horticultural crop varieties and greenhouse technology that can contribute to mitigating the adverse impact of climate change on agricultural crops.}, }
@article {pmid38168943, year = {2024}, author = {Noronha, PM}, title = {How badly does climate change affect coral? I dive to find out.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {625}, number = {7993}, pages = {208}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-04092-1}, pmid = {38168943}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Ecology ; Marine Biology ; Polynesia ; *Research Personnel ; Diving ; }, }
@article {pmid38168757, year = {2024}, author = {Sato, H and Mizoi, J and Shinozaki, K and Yamaguchi-Shinozaki, K}, title = {Complex plant responses to drought and heat stress under climate change.}, journal = {The Plant journal : for cell and molecular biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/tpj.16612}, pmid = {38168757}, issn = {1365-313X}, support = {20K06700//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/ ; 22K15137//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/ ; JP22H0425 (PAGS)//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/ ; LT000162/2018-L3//Human Frontier Science Program/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is predicted to result in increased yield losses of agricultural crops caused by environmental conditions. In particular, heat and drought stress are major factors that negatively affect plant development and reproduction, and previous studies have revealed how these stresses induce plant responses at physiological and molecular levels. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of current knowledge concerning how drought, heat, and combinations of these stress conditions affect the status of plants, including crops, by affecting factors such as stomatal conductance, photosynthetic activity, cellular oxidative conditions, metabolomic profiles, and molecular signaling mechanisms. We further discuss stress-responsive regulatory factors such as transcription factors and signaling factors, which play critical roles in adaptation to both drought and heat stress conditions and potentially function as 'hubs' in drought and/or heat stress responses. Additionally, we present recent findings based on forward genetic approaches that reveal natural variations in agricultural crops that play critical roles in agricultural traits under drought and/or heat conditions. Finally, we provide an overview of the application of decades of study results to actual agricultural fields as a strategy to increase drought and/or heat stress tolerance. This review summarizes our current understanding of plant responses to drought, heat, and combinations of these stress conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38167644, year = {2024}, author = {Gano, D and Bearer, CF}, title = {Trends in prenatal and pediatric viral infections, and the impact of climate change.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41390-023-02986-4}, pmid = {38167644}, issn = {1530-0447}, }
@article {pmid38167217, year = {2024}, author = {Brubacher, LJ and Chen, TT and Longboat, S and Dodd, W and Peach, L and Elliott, SJ and Patterson, K and Neufeld, H}, title = {Climate change, biodiversity loss, and Indigenous Peoples' health and wellbeing: a systematic umbrella review protocol.}, journal = {Systematic reviews}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {8}, pmid = {38167217}, issn = {2046-4053}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; *Indigenous Peoples ; Population Groups ; Research Design ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Research that examines the intersections of Indigenous Peoples' health and wellbeing with climate change and biodiversity loss is abundant in the global scholarship. A synthesis of this evidence base is crucial in order to map current pathways of impact, as well as to identify responses across the global literature that advance Indigenous health and wellbeing, all while centering Indigenous voices and perspectives. This protocol details our proposed methodology to systematically conduct an umbrella review (or review of reviews) of the synthesized literature on climate change, biodiversity loss, and the health and wellbeing of Indigenous Peoples globally.<br><br>METHODS: A multidisciplinary team of Indigenous and non-Indigenous scholars will conduct the review, guided by an engagement process with an Indigenous Experts group. A search hedge will be used to search PubMed&#xae;, Scopus&#xae;, Web of Science&#x2122;, CINAHL (via EBSCOHost&#xae;), and Campbell Collaboration databases and adapted for use in grey literature sources. Two independent reviewers will conduct level one (title/abstract) and level two (full-text) eligibility screening using inclusion/exclusion criteria. Data will be extracted from included records and analyzed using quantitative (e.g., basic descriptive statistics) and qualitative methods (e.g., thematic analysis, using a constant comparative method).<br><br>DISCUSSION: This protocol outlines our approach to systematically and transparently review synthesized literature that examines the intersections of climate change, biodiversity loss, and Indigenous Peoples' health and wellbeing globally.<br><br>This protocol was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) on April 24, 2023 (registration number: CRD42023417060).}, }
@article {pmid38166500, year = {2024}, author = {Johnston, FH and Williamson, G and Borchers-Arriagada, N and Henderson, SB and Bowman, DMJS}, title = {Climate Change, Landscape Fires, and Human Health: A Global Perspective.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-060222-034131}, pmid = {38166500}, issn = {1545-2093}, abstract = {Landscape fires are an integral component of the Earth system and a feature of prehistoric, subsistence, and industrial economies. Specific spatiotemporal patterns of landscape fire occur in different locations around the world, shaped by the interactions between environmental and human drivers of fire activity. Seven distinct types of landscape fire emerge from these interactions: remote area fires, wildfire disasters, savanna fires, Indigenous burning, prescribed burning, agricultural burning, and deforestation fires. All can have substantial impacts on human health and well-being directly and indirectly through (a) exposure to heat flux (e.g., injuries and destructive impacts), (b) emissions (e.g., smoke-related health impacts), and (c) altered ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity, amenity, water quality, and climate impacts). Minimizing the adverse effects of landscape fires on population health requires understanding how human and environmental influences on fire impacts can be modified through interventions targeted at individual, community, and regional levels. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 45 is April 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.}, }
@article {pmid38165543, year = {2024}, author = {Zhao, X and Li, X}, title = {The role of green finance in mitigating climate change risks: a quantitative analysis of sustainable investments.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38165543}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The dire problem of climate change has garnered more attention in recent years and, with it, the necessity of reducing its damaging effects on the environment. Nevertheless, despite the green finance index's (GFI) potential advantages in combating climate change, empirical studies on the subject's consequences have been few, mostly because of the index's restricted data availability. This study's primary goal is to close this gap by employing panel data analysis to investigate the environmental effects of GFI in China between 2004 and 2021. Econometric methods like the Driscoll-Kraay standard error and other robustness test models are used to look into the links between political risk, green finance, the ecological footprint, and the economic complexity index. According to the research findings, there is a 0.31% and 0.81% decrease in ecological footprint resulting from the implementation of GFI and rises in GDP (gross domestic product). These results suggest that these strategies could play a major role in establishing a sustainable environment. However, in the chosen countries, the ecological footprint increases by 0.81% and 0.80%, respectively, due to the presence of political risk and economic complexity. This study suggests that government involvement is necessary to reduce carbon footprints and protect the ecosystem, based on these empirical findings. Implementing green financing initiatives, fostering technological development, economic diversification, and fostering a stable political environment are all ways to achieve sustainable investments.}, }
@article {pmid38163826, year = {2024}, author = {Seth, P and Sebastian, J}, title = {Plants and global warming: challenges and strategies for a warming world.}, journal = {Plant cell reports}, volume = {43}, number = {1}, pages = {27}, pmid = {38163826}, issn = {1432-203X}, support = {Ramalingaswami fellowship program//Department of Biotechnology (DBT), Government of India/ ; }, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Plants ; Climate Change ; Acclimatization ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In this review, we made an attempt to create a holistic picture of plant response to a rising temperature environment and its impact by covering all aspects from temperature perception to thermotolerance. This comprehensive account describing the molecular mechanisms orchestrating these responses and potential mitigation strategies will be helpful for understanding the impact of global warming on plant life. Organisms need to constantly recalibrate development and physiology in response to changes in their environment. Climate change-associated global warming is amplifying the intensity and periodicity of these changes. Being sessile, plants are particularly vulnerable to variations happening around them. These changes can cause structural, metabolomic, and physiological perturbations, leading to alterations in the growth program and in extreme cases, plant death. In general, plants have a remarkable ability to respond to these challenges, supported by an elaborate mechanism to sense and respond to external changes. Once perceived, plants integrate these signals into the growth program so that their development and physiology can be modulated befittingly. This multifaceted signaling network, which helps plants to establish acclimation and survival responses enabled their extensive geographical distribution. Temperature is one of the key environmental variables that affect all aspects of plant life. Over the years, our knowledge of how plants perceive temperature and how they respond to heat stress has improved significantly. However, a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the process still largely elusive. This review explores how an increase in the global surface temperature detrimentally affects plant survival and productivity and discusses current understanding of plant responses to high temperature (HT) and underlying mechanisms. We also highlighted potential resilience attributes that can be utilized to mitigate the impact of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid38162537, year = {2023}, author = {Wutich, A and Thomson, P and Jepson, W and Stoler, J and Cooperman, AD and Doss-Gollin, J and Jantrania, A and Mayer, A and Nelson-Nuñez, J and Walker, WS and Westerhoff, P}, title = {MAD Water: Integrating Modular, Adaptive, and Decentralized Approaches for Water Security in the Climate Change Era.}, journal = {WIREs. Water}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {38162537}, issn = {2049-1948}, support = {P42 ES030990/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Centralized water infrastructure has, over the last century, brought safe and reliable drinking water to much of the world. But climate change, combined with aging and underfunding, is increasingly testing the limits of-and reversing gains made by-these large-scale water systems. To address these growing strains and gaps, we must assess and advance alternatives to centralized water provision and sanitation. The water literature is rife with examples of systems that are neither centralized nor networked, but still meet water needs of local communities in important ways, including: informal and hybrid water systems, decentralized water provision, community-based water management, small drinking water systems, point-of-use treatment, small-scale water vendors, and packaged water. Our work builds on these literatures by proposing a convergence approach that can integrate and explore the benefits and challenges of modular, adaptive, and decentralized ("MAD") water provision and sanitation, often foregrounding important advances in engineering technology. We further provide frameworks to evaluate justice, economic feasibility, governance, human health, and environmental sustainability as key parameters of MAD water system performance.}, }
@article {pmid38161310, year = {2024}, author = {Parums, DV}, title = {Editorial: Climate Change and the Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases, Including Dengue, Malaria, Lyme Disease, and West Nile Virus Infection.}, journal = {Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {e943546}, pmid = {38161310}, issn = {1643-3750}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *West Nile Fever/epidemiology ; Ecosystem ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; *Vector Borne Diseases ; *Lyme Disease/epidemiology ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The major health threats from climate change include increasing temperatures, air pollution, extreme weather events, changes in the spread of infectious diseases, antimicrobial resistance, emerging pathogens, and an increase in vector-borne disease. Between October and December 2023, in 200 medical journal, epidemiologists, clinicians, healthcare policymakers, and journal editors published an emergency call to action to health professionals, the United Nations, and political leaders on climate change and its effects on the ecosystem and human health. Also, in December 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its sixth Assessment Report (AR6) that summarizes current knowledge, impacts, and health risks from climate change, as well as suggestions for mitigation and adaptation. For over a decade, the IPCC has reported that the prevalence of vector-borne diseases has increased and highlighted the importance of monitoring dengue, malaria, Lyme disease, West Nile virus infection, and other vector-borne diseases. This editorial aims to provide an update on the association between climate change and the spread of vector-borne diseases and highlights the urgent need for public health and disease prevention and treatment strategies to control the rise in vector-borne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid38160946, year = {2023}, author = {Ranieri, E and D'Onghia, G and Lopopolo, L and Gikas, P and Ranieri, F and Gika, E and Spagnolo, V and Herrera, JA and Ranieri, AC}, title = {Influence of climate change on wastewater treatment plants performances and energy costs in Apulia, south Italy.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {350}, number = {}, pages = {141087}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2023.141087}, pmid = {38160946}, issn = {1879-1298}, abstract = {This paper studies the influence of temperature and of rainfall intensity and the effect of such variations on the treatment efficiencies and on the electrical consumptions in seven medium-large size Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs) in Apulia in South Italy (Bari, Barletta, Brindisi, Lecce, Foggia, Andria and Taranto). It has been observed, in the considered WWTPs, a slight but clear increase of the incoming flow due to the increase in rainfall intensity, which results to an increase of the energy consumption per incoming volume. The impact of the climate change to the incoming flow, during the last five years (2016-2020), has been assessed indicating that an increase in rainfall intensity results to an increase of the WWTPs energy consumptions per wastewater treated volume. More specifically, for a specific WWTP (Lecce) it was found that the electrical consumption increases from 0.36 kw/m[3] to 0.51 kw/m[3] when the rainfall intensity was increased from 0.8 mm/min to 2.9 mm/min. Some adaption measures have been considered to upgrade the existing WWTP so to mitigate the energy increase and to limit the global effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38160824, year = {2023}, author = {Bamorovat, M and Sharifi, I and Aflatoonian, MR and Salarkia, E and Agha Kuchak Afshari, S and Pourkhosravani, M and Karamoozian, A and Khosravi, A and Aflatoonian, B and Sharifi, F and Divsalar, H and Amiri, B and Shirzadi, MR}, title = {A prospective longitudinal study on the elimination trend of rural cutaneous leishmaniasis in southeastern Iran: Climate change, population displacement, and agricultural transition from 1991 to 2021.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {913}, number = {}, pages = {169684}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169684}, pmid = {38160824}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Leishmaniasis is a complex disease. Any change in weather conditions affects the humans' social and agricultural expansion and, consequently, the parasite's life cycle in terms of ecology, biodiversity, social stigma, and exclusion. This population-based prospective longitudinal investigation was conducted between 1991 and 2021 in a well-defined CL (cutaneous leishmaniasis) focus in Bam County, southeastern Iran. A robust health clinic and health surveillance system were responsible for the ongoing systematic documentation, detection, identification, and management of CL cases. The exponential smoothing method via the state space model was used in the univariate time series. The TTR, smooth, and forecast packages were used in R software. Landsat satellite images from 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 were employed in the physical development. During this period, the temperature increased while the rainfall and humidity decreased. The findings showed a downward trend in the standardized drought index. Also, the results showed that climate warming and ecological changes profoundly affected the area's agricultural patterns and topographical features. Furthermore, the last three decades witnessed an elimination trend for zoonotic CL (ZCL) and the predominance of anthroponotic CL (ACL). The present findings showed that the critical factors in the predominance of ACL and elimination of ZCL were rising temperature, drought, migration, unplanned urbanization, earthquake, and agrarian reform. The wall-enclosed palm tree gardens excluded the primary ZCL reservoir host. They controlled the disease while providing suitable conditions for the emergence/re-emergence of ACL in the newly established settlements and the unplanned ecozone. Therefore, robust health infrastructures, sustained financial support, and evidence-based research studies are crucial to facilitating the necessary surveillance, monitoring, and evaluation to control and eliminate the disease.}, }
@article {pmid38159933, year = {2023}, author = {Ma, F and Cao, J and Wang, Y and Vigne, SA and Dong, D}, title = {Dissecting climate change risk and financial market instability: Implications for ecological risk management.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.14265}, pmid = {38159933}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {2022NSFSC0917//Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province/ ; 72071162//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 72073109//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {This research investigates the impact of climate challenges on financial markets by introducing an innovative approach to measure climate risk, specifically the aggregate climate change concern (ACCC) index. The study aims to assess and quantify the potential influence of climate change and risk-related factors on the performance and dynamics of financial markets. In this paper, concern is defined as the attention paid to the risk of climate change and the associated negative consequences. The findings demonstrate that the aggregate index exhibits robust predictability of market risk premiums, both within the sample and out-of-sample. By comparison, the index contains additional information beyond 14 economic predictors and 12 risk/uncertainty indexes in forecasting stock market return. In addition, the index proves valuable for mean-variance investors in asset allocation, leading to significant economic gains. The study identifies the index's ability to capture the reversal of temporary price crashes caused by overreactions to climate change risk. Furthermore, it exhibits stronger return forecasting capability for green stocks, non-state-owned enterprise (non-SOE) stocks, and stocks in regions with low air pollution. Particularly during periods of low air pollution and relaxed regulation, the index displays an enhanced ability to forecast returns. The study's findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and financial institutions as they address 21st-century environmental challenges. Moreover, these findings can inform the design of adaptive measures and interventions aimed at mitigating ecological risks and promoting sustainable economic growth.}, }
@article {pmid38159743, year = {2023}, author = {Bonsoms, J and Oliva, M and Alonso-González, E and Revuelto, J and López-Moreno, JI}, title = {Impact of climate change on snowpack dynamics in coastal Central-Western Greenland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {913}, number = {}, pages = {169616}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169616}, pmid = {38159743}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Snow patterns in ice-free areas of Greenland play important roles in ecosystems. Within a changing climate, a comprehensive understanding of the snow responses to climate change is of interest to anticipate forthcoming dynamics in these areas. In this study, we analyze the future snowpack evolution of a polar maritime Arctic location, Qeqertarsuaq (Disko Island, Central-Western Greenland). A physically-based snow model (FSM2) is validated and forced with CMIP6 projections for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gasses emission scenarios, using two models: CanESM5 and MIROC6. The future snowpack evolution is assessed through four key seasonal (October to May) snow climate indicators: snow depth, snow days, snowfall fraction and ablation rate. Comparison against the observed air temperature for the reference climate period demonstrates superior accuracies for MIROC6 SSP2.4-5, with anomalies at 19 %, compared to CanESM5 SSP5.8-5 (25 %) and CanESM5 SSP2.4-5 (78 %). In terms of precipitation, CanESM5 SSP2.4-5 and SSP2.4-5 exhibit smaller anomalies against the observed data (5 %) in contrast to MIROC6 SSP2.4-5 (15 %) and MIROC6 SSP2.8-5 (17 %). Results demonstrate distinct snowpack responses to climate change depending on the model and emission scenario. For CanESM5, seasonal snow depth anomalies with respect to the reference period range from - 38 % (SSP2-4.5, 2040-2050 period) to - 74 % (SSP5-8.5, 2090-2100 period). MIROC6 projects lower snowpack reductions, with a decrease ranging from - 38 % (SSP2-4.5, 2040-2050 period) to - 57 % (SSP5-8.5, 2090-2100 period). Similar reductions are anticipated for snowfall and snow days. Changes in the snowpack evolution are primarily driven by positive trends in downwelling longwave radiation and air temperature. The projected increase in precipitation by the mid to late 21st century will lead to more frequent rain-on-snow events, intensifying snowpack melting. These findings help enhance the comprehension of future snow dynamics in the ice-free zones of Greenland, as well as the associated hydrological and ecological changes.}, }
@article {pmid38159738, year = {2023}, author = {Tziouvalekas, M and Noulas, C and Thalassinos, G and Shaheen, SM and Rinklebe, J and Antoniadis, V}, title = {Temperature-induced changes in DTPA-extractable trace elements: Predicting the potential impact of climate change on the availability of soil elements.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {350}, number = {}, pages = {141064}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2023.141064}, pmid = {38159738}, issn = {1879-1298}, abstract = {The extraction of trace elements from soil with DTPA is a widely used protocol across laboratories. There is a possible "hidden" discrepancy regarding the results obtained from the extractions, i.e., ambient laboratory temperature and soil properties. In this study, the possible influence of these factors on the extractability of the available forms of Cu, Fe, Pb, Mn, Ni, and Zn, measured with DTPA were studied. Α series of extractions was carried out on a soil sample under normal laboratory temperatures, which fluctuated throughout the year, from 15 to 33.9 °C. In other 144 soil samples, the prevailing physico-chemical properties of soil were evaluated (pH, organic C, clay, CaCO3) that affected the percentage of DTPA extractability relative to the pseudo-total determined content. A strong positive correlation of all metals versus increased ambient temperature was found. Cu had an R[2] of 0.897, Fe 0.970, Mn 0.957, Ni 0.938, Pb 0.876, and, Zn 0.922, all highly significant. Extracted Mn exhibited a 6.5-fold increase at the highest temperature of 33.9 [ο]C compared to the lowest. Similar increasing trend was observed for Fe, and Ni, and smaller for Cu, Zn, and Pb. Inherent soil properties affected the percentage of extractability relative to the total content: extractability of Cu, Fe, Mn, and Ni was affected negatively by pH, and the extractability of the studied metals with CaCO3 content. Other soil properties (organic C and clay/sand content) also had an effect, not as pronounced as that of pH and CaCO3. This signifies the necessity of employing standard conditions for routine extractions such as DTPA so that data may be comparable. Also these identified discrepancies may have consequences in the extractability and availability of soil micronutrients and toxic elements regarding climate change. This study aspires to play the role of an initial step towards more robust investigations that would suggest ways of correcting temperature and soil characteristics discrepancies across laboratories.}, }
@article {pmid38159371, year = {2023}, author = {Contreras, A and Blanchard, MA and Mouguiama-Daouda, C and Heeren, A}, title = {When eco-anger (but not eco-anxiety nor eco-sadness) makes you change! A temporal network approach to the emotional experience of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {102}, number = {}, pages = {102822}, doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2023.102822}, pmid = {38159371}, issn = {1873-7897}, abstract = {Research on the emotional experience of climate change has become a hot topic. Yet uncertainties remain regarding the interplay between climate change-related emotions (i.e., eco-anxiety, eco-anger, eco-sadness), general emotions (i.e., regardless of climate change), and pro-environmental behaviors. Most previous research has focused on cross-sectional studies, and eco-emotions in everyday life have seldom been considered. In this preregistered study, 102 participants from the general population rated their eco-emotions (i.e., eco-anxiety, eco-anger, eco-sadness), general emotions (i.e., anxiety, anger, sadness), and pro-environmental intentions and behaviors daily over a 60-day period. Using a multilevel vector autoregressive approach, we computed three network models representing temporal (i.e., from one time-point to the next), contemporaneous (i.e., during the same time-frame), and between-subject (i.e., similar to cross-sectional approach) associations between variables. Results show that eco-anger was the only predictor of pro-environmental intentions and behaviors over time. At the contemporaneous level, the momentary experience of each eco-emotion was associated with the momentary emotional experience of the corresponding general emotion, indicating the distinctiveness of each eco-emotion and the correspondence between its experience and that of its general, non-climate-related emotion. Overall, our findings 1) emphasize the driving role of eco-anger in prompting pro-environmental behaviors over time, 2) suggest a functional and experiential distinction between eco-emotions, and 3) provide data-driven clues for the field's larger quest to establish the scientific foundations of eco-emotions.}, }
@article {pmid38159188, year = {2023}, author = {Dai, T and Dai, X and Lu, H and He, T and Li, W and Li, C and Huang, S and Huang, Y and Tong, C and Qu, G and Shan, Y and Liang, S and Liu, D}, title = {The impact of climate change and human activities on the change in the net primary productivity of vegetation-taking Sichuan Province as an example.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38159188}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {Grant No. 2023YFS0435//the Key Research and Development Program of Sichuan Province/ ; Grant No. 2022-LHYJ-02-0201//the Yangtze River Joint Research Phase II Program/ ; Grant No. SKLGP2022Z007//State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection/ ; }, abstract = {Vegetation is an essential component of terrestrial ecosystems, influenced by climate change and human activities. Quantifying the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation dynamics is crucial for addressing global climate change. Sichuan Province is one of the essential ecological functional areas in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and its vegetation change is of great significance to the environmental function and ecological security of the Yangtze River Basin and southwest China. In this paper, the modified Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA) model was used to estimate the monthly NPP (Net Primary Productivity) of vegetation in Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2018, and the univariate linear regression analysis was used to analyze the temporal and spatial variation of vegetation NPP in Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2018. In addition, taking vegetation NPP as an index, Pearson correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis, and second-order partial correlation analysis were carried out to quantitatively analyze the contribution of climate change and human activities to vegetation NPP. Finally, the Hurst index and nonparametric Man-Kendall significance test were used to predict the future change trend of vegetation NPP in Sichuan Province. The results show that (1) from 2000 to 2018, the NPP of vegetation in Sichuan Province has a significant increasing trend (Slope = 6.09gC·m[-2]·a[-1]), with a multi-year average of 438.72 gC·m[-2]·a[-1], showing a trend of low in the east and high in the middle. The response of vegetation NPP to altitude is different at different elevations; (2) the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to vegetation NPP change are 4.12gC·m[-2]·a[-1] and 1.97gC·m[-2]·a[-1], respectively. In contrast, the impact of human activities on NPP is more significant than climate change. Human activities are the main factors affecting vegetation restoration and degradation in Sichuan Province. However, the positive contribution to NPP change is less than climate change; (3) the future vegetation NPP change trend in Sichuan Province is mainly rising, and the same direction change trend is much larger than the reverse change trend. The areas with an increasing trend in the future account for 89.187% of the total area. This research helps understand the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation change in Sichuan Province. It offers scientific bases for vegetation restoration and ecosystem management in Sichuan and the surrounding areas.}, }
@article {pmid38157574, year = {2024}, author = {Kurniawan, TA and Liang, X and Goh, HH and Dzarfan Othman, MH and Anouzla, A and Al-Hazmi, HE and Chew, KW and Aziz, F and Ali, I}, title = {Leveraging food waste for electricity: A low-carbon approach in energy sector for mitigating climate change and achieving net zero emission in Hong Kong (China).}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {351}, number = {}, pages = {119879}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119879}, pmid = {38157574}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {In recent years, food waste has been a global concern that contributes to climate change. To deal with the rising impacts of climate change, in Hong Kong, food waste is converted into electricity in the framework of low-carbon approach. This work provides an overview of the conversion of food waste into electricity to achieve carbon neutrality. The production of methane and electricity from waste-to-energy (WTE) conversion are determined. Potential income from its sale and environmental benefits are also assessed quantitatively and qualitatively. It was found that the electricity generation from the food waste could reach 4.33 × 10[9] kWh annually, avoiding equivalent electricity charge worth USD 3.46 × 10[9] annually (based on US' 8/kWh). An equivalent CO2 mitigation of 9.9 × 10[8] kg annually was attained. The revenue from its electricity sale in market was USD 1.44×10[9] in the 1[st] year and USD 4.24 ×10[9] in the 15[th] year, respectively, according to the projected CH4 and electricity generation. The modelling study indicated that the electricity production is 0.8 kWh/kg of landfilled waste. The food waste could produce electricity as low as US' 8 per kW ∙ h. In spite of its promising results, there are techno-economic bottlenecks in commercial scale production and its application at comparable costs to conventional fossil fuels. Issues such as high GHG emissions and high production costs have been determined to be resolved later. Overall, this work not only leads to GHG avoidance, but also diversifies energy supply in providing power for homes in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38155894, year = {2023}, author = {Holdsworth, J and Hunte, SA and Barker, K and Sherin, J and Rao, M and Maharaj, SB}, title = {Safeguarding the Caribbean's future: making the case to research the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on youth mental health and wellbeing.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1322831}, pmid = {38155894}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Adolescent ; *Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; West Indies ; Caribbean Region ; Ethnicity ; }, abstract = {This article makes a call for attention to paid on the development of a research agenda for studying the impact of climatic events on youth mental health in the Caribbean. It details the climate injustices that the region faces and the potential mental health problem which can arise from climatic events. It makes a call for interdisciplinary research and a multi stakeholder approach to dealing with this potential issue.}, }
@article {pmid38155313, year = {2023}, author = {Jemec Auflič, M and Bezak, N and Šegina, E and Frantar, P and Gariano, SL and Medved, A and Peternel, T}, title = {Climate change increases the number of landslides at the juncture of the Alpine, Pannonian and Mediterranean regions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {23085}, pmid = {38155313}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {J1-3024//Javna Agencija za Raziskovalno Dejavnost RS/ ; }, abstract = {During the next few decades, changes in rainfall frequency and magnitude are expected to have major impacts on landscape evolution, social, and economic aspects of human society. We focus on seasonal rainfall variations by the end of the twenty-first century to define affected landslide-prone areas, future landslide alerts and the impact of landslides on landscape development in the juncture of the Alpine, Pannonian, and Mediterranean region. A moderate and a worst-case climate scenario from CMIP5 global climate simulations were considered to determine the impact of rainfall on the two most common types of landslides in region, shallow and deep-seated landslides. The observed changes in the occurrence of shallow landslides are significant, especially in the winter months, where we can expect more landslide-prone areas compared to the baseline period. Shallow landslides will have a greater impact on the landscape in spring and summer than deep-seated landslides, especially in vineyards.}, }
@article {pmid38154197, year = {2023}, author = {Shiganova, TA and Alekseenko, EV and Mirzoyan, ZA and Kazmin, AS}, title = {Prediction of ctenophore Beroe ovata Bruguiere, 1789 habitat expansion and control of invading Mnemiopsis leidyi Agassiz, 1865 in the Ponto-Caspian basin associated with climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {194}, number = {}, pages = {106315}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106315}, pmid = {38154197}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {The seas of Ponto-Caspian basin (Black, Azov and Caspian) are exposed to species invasions, including harmful ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi A. Agassiz, 1865 and its predator Beroe ovata Bruguière, 1789. Current environmental conditions of invasive ctenophores M. leidyi and B. ovata occurrence, development and variability in the Ponto-Caspian basin have been compiled, based on own field observations and published data. Analysis of climatological data on basic environmental parameters (water temperature, salinity, chlorophyll concentration) and modeling approach were used to predict favourable for both ctenophores conditions, and changes of those conditions, associated with the climate variations. The role of B. ovata as a bio-controller of M. leidyi population has been assessed. Several climate change scenarios have been considered in this study i.e., uniform increase/decrease of SST throughout the year by 2 °C and only spring temperatures increase/decrease by 2 °C. The most sensitive to increase in SST in terms of M. leidyi reproduction duration are the western coast of the Black Sea and the Southern and Middle Caspian. On the other hand, B. ovata reproduction duration is expected to increase in several areas, including the northern coast of the Black Sea and the Southern and Middle Caspian. The coastal areas of the Black Sea and the transitional regions between the Southern and Middle Caspian are exposed to an earlier start of M. leidyi reproduction during warmer springs. Regarding B. ovata, the whole Black Sea is vulnerable to spring SST changes, but in the Caspian Sea B. ovata extends its reproduction duration only in the Middle Caspian during warmer springs. Since B. ovata consumes mostly M. leidyi, it is an important biocontrolling agent of M. leidyi, harmless for the ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid38154019, year = {2023}, author = {Fagan, MJ and Vanderloo, LM and Banerjee, A and Ferguson, LJ and Lee, EY and O'Reilly, N and Rhodes, RE and Spence, JC and Tremblay, MS and Faulkner, G}, title = {Assessing Support for Policy Actions With Co-Benefits for Climate Change and Physical Activity in Canada.}, journal = {Journal of physical activity &amp; health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-10}, doi = {10.1123/jpah.2023-0617}, pmid = {38154019}, issn = {1543-5474}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Calls to action addressing the interconnections between physical (in)activity and the climate crisis are increasing. The current study aimed to investigate public support for policy actions that potentially have co-benefits for physical activity promotion and climate change mitigation.<br><br>METHODS: In 2023, a survey through the Angus Reid Forum was completed by 2507 adults living in Canada. Binary logistic regressions were conducted. Separate models were created to reflect support or opposition to the 8 included policy items. Several covariates were included in the models including age, gender, political orientation, physical activity levels, income, urbanicity climate anxiety, and attitudes surrounding physical activity and climate change. The data were weighted to reflect the gender, age, and regional composition of the country.<br><br>RESULTS: Most individuals living in Canada strongly or moderately supported all actions (ranging from 71% to 85%). Meeting the physical activity guidelines, higher self-reported income, and scoring high on personal experience of climate change were associated with higher odds of supporting the policy actions related to climate actions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Most adults living in Canada support policies that align with the recommended policy actions related to physical activity and climate change. National campaigns enhancing awareness and understanding of the bidirectional relationship between physical activity and climate change are warranted, and these should consider the consistent demographic differences (eg,&#xa0;gender, age, and political orientation) seen in public support for physical activity-related policies.}, }
@article {pmid38153979, year = {2023}, author = {Nadig, RR and Deepak, B and Neelamegam, V and Moussa, G and Raman, R}, title = {Global warming impact of fluorinated gases in ophthalmic surgeries at a tertiary eye center in India.}, journal = {Indian journal of ophthalmology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.4103/IJO.IJO_1775_23}, pmid = {38153979}, issn = {1998-3689}, abstract = {PURPOSE: Global warming is one of the greatest health threats of the 21st century. The ophthalmic sector contributes to the emission of greenhouse gases, thus altering the natural environment. There is currently no data on global emissions of fluorinated gases in ophthalmic surgery. This retrospective study from 2017 to 2021 aims to report the carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalence of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), hexafluoroethane (C2F6), and octafluoropropane (C3F8) at a tertiary eye center.<br><br>METHODS: Data collected from 1842 surgical procedures that used injections of fluorinated gases were analyzed. Environmental impact (global warming potential over 100 years) was calculated by converting milliliters to grams by using modified ideal gas law at standard temperature and pressure for the canisters and then to their CO2 equivalence.<br><br>RESULTS: Though 70% of surgeries used C3F8, the least greenhouse effect causing fluorinated gas, the total carbon emission was 1.4 metric tons. The most common indication was macular hole surgery (36.86%).<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study paves a step toward analyzing the problem statement, thus awakening us to contemplate options to make ophthalmic surgeries greener.}, }
@article {pmid38153573, year = {2023}, author = {Kim, SU and Han, HR and Lee, HH and Lim, JM and Park, SJ and Jeon, S and Kang, N and Park, WP and Hong, CO}, title = {Net global warming potential index rather than soil carbon stock change could provide better understanding of the carbon balance in soil systems.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38153573}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {PJ01500002//Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea/ ; }, abstract = {This study was conducted to determine the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock change factor for green manure crops that was developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 method and compare this with the net global warming potential (GWP) index that is used to evaluate the contribution of green manuring to global warming. Four treatments were barley (Hordeum vulgare L.; B), hairy vetch (Vicia villosa R.; HV), a barley/hairy vetch mixture (BHV) and a conventional treatment (C). The aboveground biomass of green manure crops was incorporated into the soil on 25 May 2018, 26 April 2019, 29 April 2020, 30 April 2021 and 2 May 2022. Maize (Zea mays L.) was transplanted as the subsequent crop after the incorporation of green manures. SOC stock decreased with green manures, even though carbon input with green manures, including B, HV and BHV, was greater than that with C. The mean value of the SOC stock change factor for green manure crops, including B, HV and BHV was 0.627 and was significantly lower than that of the C. However, the net GWP also decreased with the incorporation of green manure crops, and the mean value of the relative net GWP index across B, HV and BHV was 0.853. These conflicting results were caused by different estimation methods between annual SOC change (△SOC) and net GWP. The estimation of SOC stock change using △SOC suggested by the IPCC method may overestimate the contribution of green manure crops to global warming. The net GWP method with comprehensive input and output of carbon in the soil system could provide a better understanding of the carbon balance in soil systems. In the current study, the comparison of △SOC and net GWP was conducted for at one site of upland soil for 5 years. Therefore, further research on estimating the effect of green manure crops on net GWP in various types of soil for longer years should be conducted.}, }
@article {pmid38151206, year = {2023}, author = {Sheer, A and Fahad Sardar, M and Younas, F and Zhu, P and Noreen, S and Mehmood, T and Ur Rahman Farooqi, Z and Fatima, S and Guo, W}, title = {Trends and social aspects in the management and conversion of agricultural residues into valuable resources: A comprehensive approach to counter environmental degradation, food security, and climate change.}, journal = {Bioresource technology}, volume = {394}, number = {}, pages = {130258}, doi = {10.1016/j.biortech.2023.130258}, pmid = {38151206}, issn = {1873-2976}, abstract = {The circular economy is essential as it encourages the reuse and recycling of resources while reducing waste, which ultimately helps to reduce environmental pollution and boosts economic efficiency. The current review highlights the management of agricultural and livestock residues and their conversion into valuable resources to combat environmental degradation and improve social well-being. The current trends in converting agricultural residues into useful resources emphasize the social benefits of waste management and conversion. It also emphasizes how waste conversion can reduce environmental degradation and enhance food security. Using agricultural residues can increase soil health and agricultural output while reducing pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and resource depletion. Promoting sustainable waste-to-resource conversion processes requires a combination of strategies that address technical, economic, social, and environmental aspects. These multiple strategies are highlighted along with prospects and considerations.}, }
@article {pmid38150315, year = {2023}, author = {Kivimäki, M and Batty, GD and Pentti, J and Suomi, J and Nyberg, ST and Merikanto, J and Nordling, K and Ervasti, J and Suominen, SB and Partanen, AI and Stenholm, S and Käyhkö, J and Vahtera, J}, title = {Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {131}, number = {12}, pages = {127020}, pmid = {38150315}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Humans ; Temperature ; *Hot Temperature ; Climate Change ; Finland/epidemiology ; Fossils ; *Cardiovascular Diseases ; Mortality ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change scenarios illustrate various pathways in terms of global warming ranging from "sustainable development" (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1-1.9), the best-case scenario, to 'fossil-fueled development' (SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We examined the extent to which increase in daily average urban summer temperature is associated with future cause-specific mortality and projected heat-related mortality burden for the current warming trend and these two scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: We did an observational cohort study of 363,754 participants living in six cities in Finland. Using residential addresses, participants were linked to daily temperature records and electronic death records from national registries during summers (1 May to 30 September) 2000 to 2018. For each day of observation, heat index (average daily air temperature weighted by humidity) for the preceding 7 d was calculated for participants' residential area using a geographic grid at a spatial resolution of 1km&#xd7;1km. We examined associations of the summer heat index with risk of death by cause for all participants adjusting for a wide range of individual-level covariates and in subsidiary analyses using case-crossover design, computed the related period population attributable fraction (PAF), and projected change in PAF from summers 2000-2018 compared with those in 2030-2050.<br><br>RESULTS: During a cohort total exposure period of 582,111,979 summer days (3,880,746 person-summers), we recorded 4,094 deaths, including 949 from cardiovascular disease. The multivariable-adjusted rate ratio (RR) for high (&#x2265;21&#xb0;C) vs. reference (14-15&#xb0;C) heat index was 1.70 (95% CI: 1.28, 2.27) for cardiovascular mortality, but it did not reach statistical significance for noncardiovascular deaths, RR=1.14 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.36), a finding replicated in case-crossover analysis. According to projections for 2030-2050, PAF of summertime cardiovascular mortality attributable to high heat will be 4.4% (1.8%-7.3%) under the sustainable development scenario, but 7.6% (3.2%-12.3%) under the fossil-fueled development scenario. In the six cities, the estimated annual number of summertime heat-related cardiovascular deaths under the two scenarios will be 174 and 298 for a total population of 1,759,468 people.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The increase in average urban summer temperature will raise heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden. The estimated magnitude of this burden is >1.5 times greater if future climate change is driven by fossil fuels rather than sustainable development. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12080.}, }
@article {pmid38149877, year = {2023}, author = {Leung, M}, title = {Invited Perspective: Climate Change and Reproductive Health-the Perils of Oversimplification.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {131}, number = {12}, pages = {121307}, pmid = {38149877}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Reproductive Health ; }, }
@article {pmid38149642, year = {2023}, author = {Kelley, JC and Tsai, JH}, title = {Protecting Outdoor Workers From Climate Change Impacts Through Interdisciplinary Collaboration.}, journal = {Workplace health &amp; safety}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {21650799231221136}, doi = {10.1177/21650799231221136}, pmid = {38149642}, issn = {2165-0969}, }
@article {pmid38147648, year = {2024}, author = {Li, Y and Sun, M and Yang, X and Yang, M and Kleisner, KM and Mills, KE and Tang, Y and Du, F and Qiu, Y and Ren, Y and Chen, Y}, title = {Social-ecological vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {1}, pages = {e2313773120}, pmid = {38147648}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {00035796//Pew Charitable Trusts (PCT)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Fisheries ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Climate Change ; Social Environment ; China ; Ecosystem ; Fishes ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a new disrupter to global fisheries systems and their governance frameworks. It poses a pressing management challenge, particularly in China, which is renowned as the world's largest fishing country and seafood producer. As climate change continues to intensify in the region and climate awareness grows within the country's national policy, the need to understand China's fisheries' resilience to the escalating climate crisis becomes paramount. In this study, we conduct an interdisciplinary analysis to assess the vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries in response to climate change. This study employs a spatially explicit, indicator-based approach with a coupled social-ecological framework, focusing on 67 species and 11 coastal regions. By integrating diverse sets of climatic, ecological, economic, societal, and governance indicators and information, we elucidate the factors that could hinder climate adaptation, including a limited understanding of fish early life stages, uncertainty in seafood production, unequal allocation and accessibility of resources, and inadequate consideration of inclusive governance and adaptive management. Our results show that species, which have managed to survive the stress of overfishing, demonstrate a remarkable ability to adapt to climate change. However, collapsing stocks such as large yellow croaker face a high risk due to the synergistic effects of inherent biological traits and external management interventions. We emphasize the imperative to build institutional, scientific, and social capacity to support fisheries adaptation. The scientific insights provided by this study can inform fisheries management decisions and promote the operationalization of climate-resilient fisheries in China and other regions.}, }
@article {pmid38147243, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, W and Zhang, J and Li, J}, title = {Research on urban three-dimensional greening design from the perspective of climate change-a case study of Beilin District, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38147243}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2021JM-372//General Program of Shaanxi Natural Science Foundation/ ; 2022HZ1347//Joint project of research on major theoretical and practical issues in social science circles of Shaanxi Province/ ; 2022HZ1493//Joint project of research on major theoretical and practical issues in social science circles of Shaanxi Province/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an important issue for cities today and in the future. At present, China has a large population and complex climate conditions, and cities are also vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change (Tian, Environ Sustain Dev 6: 153-155 2020). Three-dimensional greening can not only improve the green space system of a city but also have a far-reaching impact on the ecology, image, and economic benefits of a city. Therefore, the study of urban three-dimensional greening is an effective means to deal with climate change strategies. By exploring the influence of traditional greening and three-dimensional greening on Local Climate in Beilin District of Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, the mechanism of three-dimensional greening on urban ecological environment was discussed, and the ecological theory, urban three-dimensional greening theory, and urban local climate zone (LCZ) were referred to. Based on the methods of national climate monitoring, ENVI-met simulation, and field independent measurement, this paper selected a research sample site in the east section of Jianshe Road, Beilin District, Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, China, and applied ENVI-met software to simulate the thermal stress relationship among building exterior surfaces, plants, and air in the street; quantified the overall ecology of the area; and used measuring instruments. The influence of different types of greening in the base on the site temperature, humidity, CO2 (carbon dioxide) concentration, wind speed, and other climate factors data was, respectively, measured and analyzed. The grid analysis was used to compare the traditional greening and three-dimensional greening, then the numerical differences of each impact factor were sorted out, and the effect of three-dimensional greening on the improvement of urban ecological environment was discussed by analyzing the climate factors with greater impact. The results show that (1) three-dimensional greening plus traditional greening is the most beneficial mode; (2) in the same environment, according to the parameter of 1.5 m from the ground in the model environment, it can be seen that the temperature of the space treated with three-dimensional greening of buildings is reduced by 3.5-3.6 ℃ compared with the control group, the relative humidity is different by 7-8%, the CO2 concentration is reduced by about 5%, and the spatial wind speed is relatively small. (3) When the urban green coverage rate is more than 40%, the improvement of temperature is more obvious, if it reaches 50%, the cool phenomenon in summer can be fundamentally changed. From the perspective of human perception, the PMV index increased by 0.27 on average. This paper discusses and analyzes the three-dimensional greening of urban streets in Beilin District, Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, China, and studies its influence on urban ecology to different degrees. The conclusions are as follows: Different types of greening have different degrees of influence on urban climate. Meanwhile, the experimental results of this paper show that in cities like Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China, where summer is hot, adding three-dimensional greening to traditional street greening can significantly improve the environmental microclimate, which is an effective means to cope with climate change, improve the site environment, and stabilize the urban ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid38146054, year = {2023}, author = {Sun, H and Wang, L}, title = {A framework for assessing the impacts of land-use/cover change and climate change on wheat productivity under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming at watershed scale.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.13237}, pmid = {38146054}, issn = {1097-0010}, support = {//Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB40000000)/ ; //National Natural Science Foundation of China (42171043; 41977012)/ ; //State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, CAS (SKLLQG1718)/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Irrigation is used extensively to enhance grain production and ensure food security. Many studies have used crop models and global climate models to study the variation of irrigated crop yield in the context of climate change. But most considered the influence of direct climate change but neglected the influence of irrigation water availability, which is affected by land-use/cover change (LUCC) and indirect climate change, on irrigated crop yield. This study therefore developed a framework including Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool, Agricultural Production Systems sImulator Model, and global climate models for exploring the impacts of LUCC, direct climate change, and indirect climate change on wheat yield in a typical watershed.<br><br>RESULTS: Both LUCC and climate change caused increased runoff from October to May, and thus increased the irrigation water availability, by 51.6 and 30.7&#x2009;mm per growing season under 1.5 and 2.0&#x2009;&#xb0;C warming, respectively. The combined influence of LUCC, direct, and indirect climate change increased wheat yield by about 18.5% and 15.5% in the context of 1.5 and 2.0&#x2009;&#xb0;C warming, respectively. The relative contribution of LUCC, indirect climate change and direct climate change to yield was 4.7%, 41.2%, and 54.1% under 1.5&#x2009;&#xb0;C warming, and 13.1%, 28.7%, and 58.2% under 2.0&#x2009;&#xb0;C warming, respectively.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We suggest that changes in irrigation water availability should be considered from a watershed perspective when simulating the influence of climate change on crop yield, especially regional crop production estimation. &#xa9; 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid38145682, year = {2023}, author = {Lu, WX and Wang, ZZ and Hu, XY and Rao, GY}, title = {Incorporating eco-evolutionary information into species distribution models provides comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {169501}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169501}, pmid = {38145682}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {As climate changes increasingly influence species distributions, ecosystem functions, and biodiversity, the urgency to understand how species' ranges shift under those changes is great. Species distribution models (SDMs) are vital approaches that can predict species distributions under changing climates. However, SDMs based on the species' current occurrences may underestimate the species' climatic tolerances. Integrating species' realized niches at different periods, also known as multi-temporal calibration, can provide an estimation closer to its fundamental niche. Based on this, we further proposed an integrated framework that combines eco-evolutionary data and SDMs (phylogenetically-informed SDMs) to provide comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change. To evaluate our approach's performance, we applied it to a group of related species, the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex (Anthemidae, Asteracee). First, we investigated the niche differentiation between species and intraspecific lineages of the complex and estimated their rates of niche evolution. Next, using both standard SDMs and our phylogenetically-informed SDMs, we generated predictions of suitability areas for all species and lineages and compared the results. Finally, we reconstructed the historical range dynamics for the species of this complex. Our results showed that the species and intraspecific lineages of the complex had varying degrees of niche differentiation and different rates of niche evolution. Lineage-level SDMs can provide more realistic predictions for species with intraspecific differentiation than species-level models can. The phylogenetically-informed SDMs provided more complete environmental envelopes and predicted broader potential distributions for all species than the standard SDMs did. Range dynamics varied among the species that have different rates of niche evolution. Our framework integrating eco-evolutionary data and SDMs contributes to a better understanding of the species' responses to climate change and can help to make more targeted conservation efforts for the target species under climate change, particularly for rare species.}, }
@article {pmid38145145, year = {2023}, author = {Duffy, J}, title = {Climate Change as a Risk Factor for Food Insecurity in Spain.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {103-104}, pmid = {38145145}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Spain ; *Human Rights ; Food Insecurity ; Food Supply ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid38145132, year = {2023}, author = {Viveros-Uehara, T}, title = {Climate Change and Economic Inequality: Are We Responding to Health Injustices?.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {191-197}, pmid = {38145132}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Human Rights ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid38144288, year = {2023}, author = {Dube, K and Nhamo, G}, title = {Evaluating climate Change's impact on hydroelectricity in the Zambezi river basin.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {e23235}, pmid = {38144288}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study investigates the effects of climate change on energy security in Africa, specifically focusing on the Upper and Lower Zambezi Basin. Data from the Kariba River basin sub-catchments, annual reports, the Climate Data Store, and Teal Tool Earth's country-by-country climate data were analysed through quantitative and qualitative data analysis techniques. The Mann-Kendal Trend Analysis was used to analyse time series and test the significance of changes to the climate. The historical climate and hydrological data analysis showed evidence of a slight increase in average rainfall amounts in the Zambezi River Basin but with high rainfall variability in some areas. Despite droughts increasing in frequency, there is a general increase in hydrological annual average water flow in the Zambezi River at two of the three sample sites. The increased water flow through the region could be attributed to population growth-induced land clearance and the degradation of wetlands in Angola's highlands. Although there is an increase in hydrological water flow into Kariba, there are water shortages for hydroelectricity generation due to increased generation capacity, resulting in increased demand for more water than in previous years. The unsustainable water abstraction to meet growing energy demands contributes to low water levels in the lake. The study recommends energy diversification and new hydroelectricity where the potential exists in the basin to reduce over-reliance on Lake Kariba with care not to disrupt the basin's hydrology and other economic activities. The study results provide insight into the potential effects of climate change on energy security in Africa.}, }
@article {pmid38142727, year = {2023}, author = {Chhaya, RS and Nag, R and Cummins, E}, title = {Quantitative risk ranking of mycotoxins in milk under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {245}, number = {}, pages = {117979}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117979}, pmid = {38142727}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Mycotoxins are toxic fungal metabolites that may occur in crops. Mycotoxins may carry-over into bovine milk if bovines ingest mycotoxin-contaminated feed. Due to climate change, there may be a potential increase in the prevalence and concentration of mycotoxins in crops. However, the toxicity to humans and the carry-over rate of mycotoxins from feed to milk from bovines varies considerably. This research aimed to rank emerging and existing mycotoxins under different climate change scenarios based on their occurrence in milk and their toxicity to humans. The quantitative risk ranking took a probabilistic approach, using Monte-Carlo simulation to take account of input uncertainties and variabilities. Mycotoxins were ranked based on their hazard quotient, calculated using estimated daily intake and tolerable daily intake values. Four climate change scenarios were assessed, including an Irish baseline model in addition to best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios, corresponding to equivalent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. This research prioritised aflatoxin B1, zearalenone, and T-2 and HT-2 toxin as potential human health hazards for adults and children compared to other mycotoxins under all scenarios. Relatively lower risks were found to be associated with mycophenolic acid, enniatins, and deoxynivalenol. Overall, the carry-over rate of mycotoxins, the milk consumption, and the concentration of mycotoxins in silage, maize, and wheat were found to be the most sensitive parameters (positively correlated) of this probabilistic model. Though climate change may impact mycotoxin prevalence and concentration in crops, the carry-over rate notably affects the final concentration of mycotoxin in milk to a greater extent. The results obtained in this study facilitate the identification of risk reduction measures to limit mycotoxin contamination of dairy products, considering potential climate change influences.}, }
@article {pmid38141648, year = {2024}, author = {Venkatesan, P}, title = {Increase in Vibrio spp infections linked to climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {e18}, doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00767-3}, pmid = {38141648}, issn = {1474-4457}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Vibrio Infections/epidemiology ; *Vibrio ; }, }
@article {pmid38141112, year = {2023}, author = {Chukwuka, AV and Omogbemi, ED and Adeogun, AO}, title = {Habitat sensitivity in the West African coastal area: inferences and implications for regional adaptations to climate change and ocean acidification.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {1}, pages = {79}, pmid = {38141112}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Ocean Acidification ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Environmental Monitoring ; Seawater ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {This study focuses on assessing coastal vulnerability and habitat sensitivity along the West African coast by delineating hotspots based on surface temperature, pH, chlorophyll-a, particulate organic carbon, and carbonate concentrations between 2018 and 2023 depending on data availability. Initial exploration of these variables revealed two distinct focal points i.e., the Togo-Nigerian coastal stretch and the stretch from Sierra Leone to Mauritania. Lower pH trends (acidification) in surface waters were observed off the West African coast, particularly in areas around the south-south Niger Delta in Nigeria and the coastal regions of Guinea and Guinea Bissau. Sea surface temperature analysis revealed highest temperatures (27-30°C) within Nigeria to Guinea coastal stretch, intermediate temperatures (24-27°C) within the Guinea Bissau and Senegal coastal stretch, and the lowest temperatures off the coast of Mauritania. Furthermore, correlation analysis between sea surface temperature and calcite concentration in the Mauritania-Senegal hotspot, as well as between overland runoff and particulate organic carbon in the Togo-Nigeria hotspot, revealed strong positive associations (r>0.60) and considerable predictive variability (R[2] ≈ 0.40). From the habitat sensitivity analysis, certain regions, including Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone, exhibited high sensitivity due to environmental challenges and strong human dependence on coastal resources. Conversely, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, and Togo displayed lower sensitivity, influenced by geographical-related factors (e.g. coastal layout, topography, etc.) and current levels of economic development (relatively lower industrialization levels). Regional pH variations in West African coastal waters have profound implications for ecosystems, fisheries, and communities. Addressing these challenges requires collaborative regional policies to safeguard shared marine resources. These findings underscore the link between ecosystem health, socioeconomics, and the need for integrated coastal management and ongoing research to support effective conservation.}, }
@article {pmid38140463, year = {2023}, author = {Martos de la Fuente, GC and Viñegla, B and Illana Rico, E and Fernández Ocaña, AM}, title = {Study of the Photosynthesis Response during the Gradual Lack of Water for 14 Olea europaea L. subsp europaea Cultivars and Their Adaptation to Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {38140463}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {ref 101000427//GEN4OLIVE "Mobilization of Olive GenRes through pre-breeding activities to face the future challenges and development of an intelligent interface to ensure a friendly information availability for end users"./ ; }, abstract = {Understanding the tolerance of plants to drought and their gradual response to lack of water is a multifaceted challenge that requires a combination of scientific research and technological innovation. Selecting naturally drought-tolerant plants and knowing their response to photosynthesis in a wide range of water availability opens a door to making decisions about the suitability of different cultivars to be implanted in specific geographical areas, based on their tolerance to drought and light absorption capacity. In this work, photosynthesis-light curves were carried out using a LiCor LI-6800 IRGA device, applying increasing light intensities to plants of 14 olive cultivars, either under control conditions (no water stress) or subject to moderate and severe water deficits. The plants were grown in a culture chamber under controlled conditions for photoperiod, air humidity, temperature, and carbon dioxide concentration. For each cultivar, the electronic transference ratio (ETR) in response to light was also obtained. Different equations were used to fit experimental data allowing us to calculate, with a regression coefficient above 0.95, different photosynthetic parameters such as the maximum photosynthetic capacity, the photosynthetic efficiency, the number of electrons or the number of photons to assimilate a molecule of CO2, and the effect of the lack of water on these parameters. This work represents the first contribution of the response to photosynthesis of many olive cultivars subjected to moderate and severe drought conditions. The parameters described, and the results provided, pave the road for subsequent work related to plant physiology and other areas of science and technology, and allow us to objectively compare the tolerance to water stress in these fourteen olive cultivars.}, }
@article {pmid38140451, year = {2023}, author = {Yang, J and Fu, Z and Xiao, K and Dong, H and Zhou, Y and Zhan, Q}, title = {Climate Change Potentially Leads to Habitat Expansion and Increases the Invasion Risk of Hydrocharis (Hydrocharitaceae).}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {38140451}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {32260046//National Science Foundation of China/ ; 202141004//Joint Open Funding of Hubei Key Laboratory of Economic Forest Germplasm Improvement and Resources Comprehensive Utilization/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a crucial factor impacting the geographical distribution of plants and potentially increases the risk of invasion for certain species, especially for aquatic plants dispersed by water flow. Here, we combined six algorithms provided by the biomod2 platform to predict the changes in global climate-suitable areas for five species of Hydrocharis (Hydrocharitaceae) (H. chevalieri, H. dubia, H. laevigata, H. morsus-ranae, and H. spongia) under two current and future carbon emission scenarios. Our results show that H. dubia, H. morsus-ranae, and H. laevigata had a wide range of suitable areas and a high risk of invasion, while H. chevalieri and H. spongia had relatively narrow suitable areas. In the future climate scenario, the species of Hydrocharis may gain a wider habitat area, with Northern Hemisphere species showing a trend of migration to higher latitudes and the change in tropical species being more complex. The high-carbon-emission scenario led to greater changes in the habitat area of Hydrocharis. Therefore, we recommend strengthening the monitoring and reporting of high-risk species and taking effective measures to control the invasion of Hydrocharis species.}, }
@article {pmid38137936, year = {2023}, author = {Wood, PL and Wood, MD and Kunigelis, SC}, title = {Pilot Lipidomics Study of Copepods: Investigation of Potential Lipid-Based Biomarkers for the Early Detection and Quantification of the Biological Effects of Climate Change on the Oceanic Food Chain.}, journal = {Life (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {38137936}, issn = {2075-1729}, abstract = {Maintenance of the health of our oceans is critical for the survival of the oceanic food chain upon which humanity is dependent. Zooplanktonic copepods are among the most numerous multicellular organisms on earth. As the base of the primary consumer food web, they constitute a major biomass in oceans, being an important food source for fish and functioning in the carbon cycle. The potential impact of climate change on copepod populations is an area of intense study. Omics technologies offer the potential to detect early metabolic alterations induced by the stresses of climate change. One such omics approach is lipidomics, which can accurately quantify changes in lipid pools serving structural, signal transduction, and energy roles. We utilized high-resolution mass spectrometry (≤2 ppm mass error) to characterize the lipidome of three different species of copepods in an effort to identify lipid-based biomarkers of copepod health and viability which are more sensitive than observational tools. With the establishment of such a lipid database, we will have an analytical platform useful for prospectively monitoring the lipidome of copepods in a planned long-term five-year ecological study of climate change on this oceanic sentinel species. The copepods examined in this pilot study included a North Atlantic species (Calanus finmarchicus) and two species from the Gulf of Mexico, one a filter feeder (Acartia tonsa) and one a hunter (Labidocerca aestiva). Our findings clearly indicate that the lipidomes of copepod species can vary greatly, supporting the need to obtain a broad snapshot of each unique lipidome in a long-term multigeneration prospective study of climate change. This is critical, since there may well be species-specific responses to the stressors of climate change and co-stressors such as pollution. While lipid nomenclature and biochemistry are extremely complex, it is not essential for all readers interested in climate change to understand all of the various lipid classes presented in this study. The clear message from this research is that we can monitor key copepod lipid families with high accuracy, and therefore potentially monitor lipid families that respond to environmental perturbations evoked by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38137891, year = {2023}, author = {Ramos Aguila, LC and Li, X and Akutse, KS and Bamisile, BS and Sánchez Moreano, JP and Lie, Z and Liu, J}, title = {Host-Parasitoid Phenology, Distribution, and Biological Control under Climate Change.}, journal = {Life (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {38137891}, issn = {2075-1729}, support = {2022B1111230001//Key Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province/ ; 41977287, 32101342, 31971459//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2021M703259, 2021M703260, 2021M693220//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change raises a serious threat to global entomofauna-the foundation of many ecosystems-by threatening species preservation and the ecosystem services they provide. Already, changes in climate-warming-are causing (i) sharp phenological mismatches among host-parasitoid systems by reducing the window of host susceptibility, leading to early emergence of either the host or its associated parasitoid and affecting mismatched species' fitness and abundance; (ii) shifting arthropods' expansion range towards higher altitudes, and therefore migratory pest infestations are more likely; and (iii) reducing biological control effectiveness by natural enemies, leading to potential pest outbreaks. Here, we provided an overview of the warming consequences on biodiversity and functionality of agroecosystems, highlighting the vital role that phenology plays in ecology. Also, we discussed how phenological mismatches would affect biological control efficacy, since an accurate description of stage differentiation (metamorphosis) of a pest and its associated natural enemy is crucial in order to know the exact time of the host susceptibility/suitability or stage when the parasitoids are able to optimize their parasitization or performance. Campaigns regarding landscape structure/heterogeneity, reduction of pesticides, and modelling approaches are urgently needed in order to safeguard populations of natural enemies in a future warmer world.}, }
@article {pmid38136865, year = {2023}, author = {Song, X and Jiang, Y and Zhao, L and Jin, L and Yan, C and Liao, W}, title = {Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Szechwan Rat Snake (Euprepiophis perlacea) and Its Response to Climate Change in the Yingjing Area of the Giant Panda National Park.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {38136865}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {32300358//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32370456//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 22NSFSC0011//Key Project of Natural Sciences Foundation of Sichuan Province/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a significant driver of changes in the distribution patterns of species and poses a threat to biodiversity, potentially resulting in species extinctions. Investigating the potential distribution of rare and endangered species is crucial for understanding their responses to climate change and for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem management. The Szechwan rat snake (Euprepiophis perlacea) is an endemic and endangered species co-distributed with giant pandas, and studying its potential distribution contributes to a better understanding of the distribution pattern of endangered species. In this study, we confirmed seven presence points of this species in the Yingjing Area of the Giant Panda National Park, and selected eleven key factors to predict the potential distribution of E. perlacea under current and future scenarios using MaxEnt models. Our study consistently achieved AUC values exceeding 0.79, meeting the precision requirements of the models. The results indicated that the high potential distribution area of E. perlacea is mainly located near Yunwu mountain and the giant panda rewilding and reintroduction base, accounting for approximately 12% of the protected area. Moreover, we identified the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of E. perlacea as the distance from streams and the slope degree, with their contribution rates exceeding 41% and 31%, respectively. In comparison to the current scenario, the potential habitat range for E. perlacea did not show an overall reduction in the context of future climate scenarios. To ensure the long-term preservation of E. perlacea, it is advisable to validate its actual distribution based on the models' results. Particular attention should be given to safeguarding its core distribution areas and raising awareness among residents within the potential distribution range about the conservation of E. perlacea.}, }
@article {pmid38136807, year = {2023}, author = {Cartron, JE and Triepke, FJ and Stahlecker, DW and Arsenault, DP and Ganey, JL and Hathcock, CD and Thompson, HK and Cartron, MC and Calhoun, KC}, title = {Climate Change Habitat Model Forecasts for Eight Owl Species in the Southwestern US.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {38136807}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {The high-resolution forecasting of vegetation type shifts may prove essential in anticipating and mitigating the impacts of future climate change on bird populations. Here, we used the US Forest Service Ecological Response Unit (ERU) classification to develop and assess vegetation-based breeding habitat profiles for eight owl species occurring in the foothills and mountains of the Southwestern US. Shifts in mapped habitat were forecast using an ecosystem vulnerability model based on the pre-1990 climate envelopes of ERUs and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) A1B moderate-emission scenario for the future climate. For five of the eight owl species, the regional breeding habitat extent was projected to decline by at least 60% by 2090. Three species, the boreal owl (Aegolius funereus; at the trailing edge of its distribution), flammulated owl (Psiloscops flammeolus), and northern pygmy-owl (Glaucidium gnoma), were projected to experience the steepest habitat loss rates of 85%, 85%, and 76%, respectively. Projected vegetation shifts overlaid with well-documented flammulated owl breeding populations showed the complete or near complete loss of habitat by 2090 in areas of montane forest currently supporting dense aggregations of owl territories. Generalist or lower-elevation owl species were predicted to be less impacted, while, for the whiskered screech-owl (Megascops trichopsis), the contraction of the current habitat was nearly offset by a projected northward expansion. In general, the results of this study suggest high exposure to climate change impacts for the upper-elevation forest owls of semi-arid Southwestern North America. Long-distance migration and low natal philopatry may prove important to some montane owl populations in adapting to the regional loss of habitat.}, }
@article {pmid38135310, year = {2023}, author = {Merino-Urrutia, W and Cárcamo-Fuentes, C and Peña, M and Martinez-Zapata, MJ}, title = {Contribution of hospitals and clinical services to global warming: protocol for a scoping review.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e072227}, pmid = {38135310}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Humans ; *Global Warming ; Hospitals ; Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Research Design ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; Review Literature as Topic ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is one of the greatest threats to public health today, placing considerable pressure on the healthcare sector. During patient care processes, hospital facilities contribute to greenhouse gas emissions through the use of greater resources and higher energy consumption. Consequently, there is growing interest among researchers, universities, organisations and governments to study the impact of the healthcare sector on the environment and to develop strategies to mitigate its effects. The aim of this scoping review is to determine the extent and nature of current literature on global warming from hospitals and clinical services, and ways in which they contribute to its effect. Planning and execution of future research are possible once those areas with existing gaps are identified.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A broad literature search will be carried out to illustrate the ways in which hospitals and clinical services, processes and activities contribute to climate change. Our protocol was drafted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews. The final protocol was registered prospectively with the Open Science Framework. All identified studies indexed in Medline, Scopus and Embase will be examined.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This project is literature-based research; therefore, it does not require ethical approval. The results will be presented to researchers as well as policymakers in this particular area, via conferences, webinars, podcasts and online events. A peer-reviewed publication will be submitted to specific journals of interest.}, }
@article {pmid38135098, year = {2023}, author = {Ahmad, T and Kumar, N and Kumar, A and Mubashir, M and Bokhari, A and Paswan, BK and Qiblawey, H}, title = {Unveiling the potential of membrane in climate change mitigation and environmental resilience in ecosystem.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {117960}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117960}, pmid = {38135098}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Carbon capture technologies are becoming increasingly crucial in addressing global climate change issues by lowering CO2 emissions from industrial and power generation activities. Post-combustion carbon capture, which uses membranes instead of adsorbents, has emerged as one of promising and environmentally friendly approaches among these technologies. The operation of membrane technology is based on the premise of selectively separating CO2 from flue gas emissions. This provides a number of different benefits, including improved energy efficiency and decreased costs of operation. Because of its adaptability to changing conditions and its low impact on the surrounding ecosystem, it is an appealing choice for a diverse array of uses. However, there are still issues to be resolved, such as those pertaining to establishing a high selectivity, membrane degradation, and the costs of the necessary materials. In this article, we evaluate and explore the prospective applications and roles of membrane technologies to control climate change by post-combustion carbon capturing. The primary proposition suggests that the utilization of membrane-based carbon capture has the potential to make a substantial impact in mitigating CO2 emissions originating from industrial and power production activities. This is due to its heightened ability to selectively absorb carbon, better efficiency in energy consumption, and its flexibility to various applications. The forthcoming challenges and potential associated with the application of membranes in post-carbon capture are also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid38131822, year = {2023}, author = {Leite, &#xc2; and Lopes, D and Pereira, L}, title = {Pro-Environmental Behavior and Climate Change Anxiety, Perception, Hope, and Despair According to Political Orientation.}, journal = {Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {38131822}, issn = {2076-328X}, abstract = {The main objective of this paper is to assess pro-environmental behavior, climate change anxiety, perception, hope, and despair in different political orientations. Our specific aims included to assess the validity of all the instruments used; to assess whether the factor structure of the scales were valid across political orientations; to evaluate their reliability; to assess differences concerning age, gender, and political orientation; to learn the variables that explain pro-environmental behavior; and to evaluate the moderating role of climate change perception, despair, and hope in the relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behavior. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs), multi-group CFAs (to calculate measurement invariance), multiple linear regressions, and moderations were performed. Results showed that pro-environmental behavior and climate change hope achieved the four assessed levels of invariance across different political orientations; climate change anxiety achieved the first three levels of invariance; and climate change perception and climate change despair achieved configural invariance. Climate change anxiety, personal experience with climate change, and climate change perception (total, reality, and consequences) presented higher values for the left political orientation than for the right or the center. Climate change anxiety variables contributed most to explaining pro-environmental behaviors. Hope, despair, and climate change perception (consequences) moderated the relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behavior. These results open up new avenues for investigation, specifically to understand why high levels of anxiety lead to more pro-environmental behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid38131729, year = {2023}, author = {Matlack, M and Covert, H and Shankar, A and Zijlmans, W and Abdoel Wahid, F and Hindori-Mohangoo, A and Lichtveld, M}, title = {Development of a Pilot Literacy Scale to Assess Knowledge, Attitudes, and Behaviors towards Climate Change and Infectious Disease Dynamics in Suriname.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {38131729}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {D43 TW009340/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; U01 TW010087/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; U2R TW010104/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; D43TW009340/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Female ; Climate Change ; Suriname ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Mosquito Vectors ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; *Health Literacy ; *Aedes ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Reproducibility of Results ; Psychometrics ; }, abstract = {Prior research has shown that climate literacy is sparse among low- and middle-income countries. Additionally, no standardized questionnaire exists for researchers to measure climate literacy among general populations, particularly with regards to climate change effects on vector-borne diseases (VBDs). We developed a comprehensive literacy scale to assess current knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors towards climate change and VBD dynamics among women enrolled in the Caribbean Consortium for Research in Environmental and Occupational Health (CCREOH) cohort in Suriname. Items were generated by our research team and reviewed by a group of six external climate and health experts. After the expert review, a total of 31 climate change and 21 infectious disease items were retained. We estimated our sample size at a 10:1 ratio of participants to items for each scale. In total, 301 women were surveyed. We validated our scales through exploratory (n = 180) and confirmatory factor analyses (n = 121). An exploratory factor analysis for our general Climate Change Scale provided a four-construct solution of 11 items. Our chi-squared value (X[2] = 74.32; p = 0.136) indicated that four factors were sufficient. A confirmatory factor analysis reinforced our findings, providing a good model fit (X[2] = 39.03; p = 0.23; RMSEA = 0.015). Our Infectious Disease Scale gave a four-construct solution of nine items (X[2] = 153.86; p = 0.094). A confirmatory factor analysis confirmed these results, with a chi-squared value of 19.16 (p = 0.575) and an RMSEA of 0.00. This research is vitally important for furthering climate and health education, especially with increases in VBDs spread by Aedes mosquitoes in the Caribbean, South America, and parts of the southern United States.}, }
@article {pmid38128674, year = {2023}, author = {Nakulopa, F and Bärlund, I and Borchardt, D}, title = {How a reservoir modulates downstream water quality under declining upstream loading and progressing climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {169460}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169460}, pmid = {38128674}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Reservoirs regulate water flow and pollutant transport in catchments. However, climate change can significantly impact their ability to perform this function. This study analysed a multi-decadal time series of data to examine the complex relationship between climate and nutrient pollution trends in the Möhne reservoir catchment. The study aimed at understanding the effect of the reservoir on downstream nutrient pollution in the face of a changing climate. The analysis revealed that upstream nutrient concentrations were higher than downstream, indicating a general nutrient-trapping effect of the reservoir. Upstream stations exhibited a declining trend in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. This was due to improved wastewater management and reduced nutrient mobilisation resulting from decreasing surface runoff and streamflow. At the downstream station, whereas TN concentrations decreased, TP concentrations mildly increased. These opposite downstream trends were likely due to rising temperatures and declining dissolved oxygen concentration within the reservoir, which might have favoured nitrogen denitrification and internal phosphorus loading, causing the decline and increase in downstream TN and TP concentrations, respectively. The contrasting downstream TN and TP trends alter the nutrient stoichiometry, which can profoundly affect the ecosystem's biogeochemical functioning. Therefore, in a warming climate, reservoirs may modulate nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients differently, leading to ecological discontinuities along river networks due to changes in TN-to-TP ratios. The study highlights the need to develop adaptable and precise nutrient pollution management strategies in reservoir catchments to address the challenges of climate change effectively.}, }
@article {pmid38128210, year = {2024}, author = {Karamidehkordi, E and Karimi, V and Hallaj, Z and Karimi, M and Naderi, L}, title = {Adaptable leadership for arid/semi-arid wetlands conservation under climate change: Using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {351}, number = {}, pages = {119860}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119860}, pmid = {38128210}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts of climate change on wetlands have enforced the international community and many nations to develop adaptive policies for wetland management, which require effective leadership to influence relevant stakeholders. This study identifies and prioritizes leadership functions and theories for climate change adaptation (CCA) in wetlands ecosystems, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. A mixed qualitative-quantitative research methodology was applied through focus groups and a survey with a sample of national, sub-national, and local experts on wetlands management and climate change in Iran. The Analytic Hierarchy Processing (AHP) technique identified the political-administrative (weight = 0.245), adaptive (W = 0.244), and enabling (W = 0.237) functions for CCA, respectively, as three prioritized leadership functions, followed by the dissemination function (W = 0.102), which emphasizes the necessity of applying and enhancing leaders' social capacities, knowledge, communication skills, and personal networks to facilitate social learning and actions regarding CCA in local communities and among relevant organizations. It is necessary to overcome structural and functional barriers for leaders and their followers to information access and involvement in participatory decision-making platforms. Moreover, network and communication leadership theories (W = 0.368) and sustainable leadership perspectives (W = 0.362), respectively, have the highest priority among leadership theories and are crucial for establishing participatory decision-making among relevant stakeholders and applying adaptive strategies for wetlands governance under climate change conditions. The reconceptualization of leadership as a complex adaptive notion draws attention to the social complexities and emerging characteristics of leadership in contemporary societies and organizations. The understanding of leaders' and followers' networks and identifying the core role of leaders provides a foundation for developing leadership functions and theories beyond hierarchical, individualistic, and one-way concepts of leadership.}, }
@article {pmid38128082, year = {2023}, author = {Green, C and Joyce, A and Hutton, RW and Dembek, K and Carey, G}, title = {A systems science leverage point analysis of climate change advocacy.}, journal = {Health promotion international}, volume = {38}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/heapro/daad168}, pmid = {38128082}, issn = {1460-2245}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Australia ; Government ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Failure of governments across the world to address climate change has fuelled social movements focused on climate-related policy and action. Research analysing these movements has focused mainly on the types of strategies employed including blockades and occupations, marches and petitions, divestment, boycotts and litigation as well as how groups are framing climate change as a problem. What has been largely missed are the ways these groups are framing the change they want to see, that is their demands to governments. Not all demands and actions have the same potential to create the changes needed to mitigate climate change. Used in public health and health promotion, the systems science Intervention Level Framework (ILF) is a tool that can help analyse to what extent different demands have the leverage to create change in a system. We use the ILF to analyse 131 demands from 35 different climate-related advocacy groups in Australia. Results show demands are more focused on lower system leverage points, such as stopping particular projects, rather than on more impactful leverage points, such as the governance structures that determine climate-related policy and decision-making mechanisms. Further, the results highlight the lack of attention on public health related topics of transport and food systems. This paper shows how a systems science framework used in health promotion, the ILF, could enable climate advocacy groups to more effectively target demands to achieve more impactful outcomes from governments, corporations and the public.}, }
@article {pmid38127155, year = {2023}, author = {Raulf, M}, title = {[Climate change and type I allergies at the workplace].}, journal = {Dermatologie (Heidelberg, Germany)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38127155}, issn = {2731-7013}, abstract = {The consequences of climate change, the increasing frequency, duration and intensity of extreme events such as excessive drought, heat waves, large-scale forest fires, heavy rainfall and associated flooding also affect workers' conditions in the workplace in many ways. Allergic diseases of the respiratory tract and skin due to workplace exposure can also arise or be influenced by direct and indirect consequences of climate change. This affects outdoor workers not only through increased exposure to pollen allergens, but also through climate-related increases in typical workplace allergens. As an indirect effect of climate change, manufacturing processes and exposure at workplaces are changing, which can also cause new sensitization and allergies. Lifestyle changes, which are primarily intended to contribute to climate protection and sustainability, can also lead to new or changed products and thus to changed manufacturing processes and exposures in the workplace, so this should also be considered an indirect effect of climate change on the health of workers. The emergence of new occupational sources of sensitization due to new or changed allergen exposures must be considered in the context of occupational health and safety and requires proactive measures to protect workers.}, }
@article {pmid38126264, year = {2023}, author = {Padullés Cubino, J and Lenoir, J and Li, D and Montaño-Centellas, FA and Retana, J and Baeten, L and Bernhardt-Römermann, M and Chudomelová, M and Closset, D and Decocq, G and De Frenne, P and Diekmann, M and Dirnböck, T and Durak, T and Hédl, R and Heinken, T and Jaroszewicz, B and Kopecký, M and Macek, M and Máliš, F and Naaf, T and Orczewska, A and Petřík, P and Pielech, R and Reczyńska, K and Schmidt, W and Standovár, T and Świerkosz, K and Teleki, B and Verheyen, K and Vild, O and Waller, D and Wulf, M and Chytrý, M}, title = {Evaluating plant lineage losses and gains in temperate forest understories: a phylogenetic perspective on climate change and nitrogen deposition.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/nph.19477}, pmid = {38126264}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {2020-BP-00013//Ag&#xe8;ncia de Gesti&#xf3; d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca/ ; APVV-19-0319//Agent&#xfa;ra na Podporu V&#xfd;skumu a V&#xfd;voja/ ; RVO 67985939//Akademie V&#x11b;d &#x10c;esk&#xe9; Republiky/ ; 871128//EU Horizon 2020-funded eLTER PLUS project/ ; 19-28491X//Grantov&#xe1; Agentura &#x10c;esk&#xe9; Republiky/ ; DEB 2213567//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Global change has accelerated local species extinctions and colonizations, often resulting in losses and gains of evolutionary lineages with unique features. Do these losses and gains occur randomly across the phylogeny? We quantified: temporal changes in plant phylogenetic diversity (PD); and the phylogenetic relatedness (PR) of lost and gained species in 2672 semi-permanent vegetation plots in European temperate forest understories resurveyed over an average period of 40 yr. Controlling for differences in species richness, PD increased slightly over time and across plots. Moreover, lost species within plots exhibited a higher degree of PR than gained species. This implies that gained species originated from a more diverse set of evolutionary lineages than lost species. Certain lineages also lost and gained more species than expected by chance, with Ericaceae, Fabaceae, and Orchidaceae experiencing losses and Amaranthaceae, Cyperaceae, and Rosaceae showing gains. Species losses and gains displayed no significant phylogenetic signal in response to changes in macroclimatic conditions and nitrogen deposition. As anthropogenic global change intensifies, temperate forest understories experience losses and gains in specific phylogenetic branches and ecological strategies, while the overall mean PD remains relatively stable.}, }
@article {pmid38125843, year = {2023}, author = {Barteit, S and Colmar, D and Nellis, S and Thu, M and Watterson, J and Gouwanda, D and Bärnighausen, T and Su, TT}, title = {Developing Climate Change and Health Impact Monitoring with eHealth at the South East Asia Community Observatory and Health and Demographic Surveillance Site, Malaysia (CHIMES).}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1153149}, pmid = {38125843}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Malaysia/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology ; *Asthma ; *Telemedicine ; Demography ; Asia, Eastern ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Malaysia is projected to experience an increase in heat, rainfall, rainfall variability, dry spells, thunderstorms, and high winds due to climate change. This may lead to a rise in heat-related mortality, reduced nutritional security, and potential migration due to uninhabitable land. Currently, there is limited data regarding the health implications of climate change on the Malaysian populace, which hinders informed decision-making and interventions.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the feasibility and reliability of using sensor-based devices to enhance climate change and health research within the SEACO health and demographic surveillance site (HDSS) in Malaysia. We will particularly focus on the effects of climate-sensitive diseases, emphasizing lung conditions like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma.<br><br>METHODS: In our mixed-methods approach, 120 participants (>18&#x2009;years) from the SEACO HDSS in Segamat, Malaysia, will be engaged over three cycles, each lasting 3&#x2009;weeks. Participants will use wearables to monitor heart rate, activity, and sleep. Indoor sensors will measure temperature in indoor living spaces, while 3D-printed weather stations will track indoor temperature and humidity. In each cycle, a minimum of 10 participants at high risk for COPD or asthma will be identified. Through interviews and questionnaires, we will evaluate the devices' reliability, the prevalence of climate-sensitive lung diseases, and their correlation with environmental factors, like heat and humidity.<br><br>RESULTS: We anticipate that the sensor-based measurements will offer a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between climate-sensitive diseases and weather variables. The data is expected to reveal correlations between health impacts and weather exposures like heat. Participant feedback will offer perspectives on the usability and feasibility of these digital tools.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our study within the SEACO HDSS in Malaysia will evaluate the potential of sensor-based digital technologies in monitoring the interplay between climate change and health, particularly for climate-sensitive diseases like COPD and asthma. The data generated will likely provide details on health profiles in relation to weather exposures. Feedback will indicate the acceptability of these tools for broader health surveillance. As climate change continues to impact global health, evaluating the potential of such digital technologies is crucial to understand its potential to inform policy and intervention strategies in vulnerable regions.}, }
@article {pmid38125465, year = {2023}, author = {Zhao, X and Pan, F and Ma, X and Raza, SA and Zhou, X}, title = {New challenges in mitigating climate change: Digital teaching for the sustainable development and innovation.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {e22829}, pmid = {38125465}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The phenomenon of climate change has become a global challenge that affects human activities in many ways. Exploring the sustainability and innovativeness of digital education is an important reference for the further implementation of science and education strategies and positive effects on climate change mitigation. This study designed two questionnaires for basic and tertiary education to address variability in education and collected 523 samples for basic education and 412 samples for tertiary education respectively. Using digital teaching practices and digital teaching quality as mediators, structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to examine the impact of digital education on sustainability and innovation in education. Research shows that digital teaching and learning in basic and higher education can significantly contribute to the two-way development of educational sustainability and innovation, through digital teaching and learning practices. Digital teaching practice and digital teaching quality in higher education play a complete mediating role, while basic education only plays a partial mediating role. Higher education emphasizes digital teaching and learning practice processes and teaching quality, and most students hope that online teaching and learning can be further integrated with offline education to form a new model of education. This study will help government departments understand the pedagogical reality of digital education at a deeper level and provide ideas for the subsequent sustainable development and educational innovation of digital teaching. It can also provide new ideas for climate change mitigation and sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid38124219, year = {2023}, author = {Stahl, RG and Boxall, A and Brix, K and Landis, WG and Stauber, JL and Moe, SJ}, title = {Incorporating climate change model projections into ecological risk assessments to help inform risk management and adaptation strategies: synthesis of a SETAC Pellston Workshop®.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4883}, pmid = {38124219}, issn = {1551-3793}, abstract = {The impacts of global climate change are not yet well integrated with the estimates of the impacts of chemicals on the environment. This is evidenced by the lack of consideration in national or international reports that evaluate the impacts of climate change and chemicals on ecosystems, and the relatively few peer-reviewed publications that have focused on this interaction. In response, a 2011 Pellston Workshop® was held on this issue and resulted in seven publications in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. Yet, these publications did not move the field towards climate change and chemicals as important factors together in research or policy making. Here we summarize the outcomes of a second Pellston Workshop® on this topic held in 2022, that included climate scientists, environmental toxicologists, chemists, and ecological risk assessors from 12 countries and various sectors. Participants were charged to assess where climate models can be applied to evaluating potential exposure and ecological effects at geographical and temporal scales suitable for ecological risk assessment, and thereby be incorporated into adaptive risk management strategies. We highlight results from the workshop's five publications included in the special series "Incorporating Global Climate Change into Ecological Risk Assessments: Strategies, Methods and Examples". We end this summary with the overall conclusions and recommendations from participants.}, }
@article {pmid38124128, year = {2023}, author = {Kost, GJ and Füzéry, AK and Caratao, LKR and Tinsay, S and Zadran, A and Ybañez, AP}, title = {Using geographic rescue time contours, point-of-care strategies, and spatial care paths to prepare island communities for global warming, rising oceans, and weather disasters.}, journal = {International journal of health geographics}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {38}, pmid = {38124128}, issn = {1476-072X}, mesh = {Humans ; Point-of-Care Systems ; Global Warming ; *Disasters ; Weather ; *Myocardial Infarction ; Patient Care Planning ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To perform geographic contour analysis of sea and land ambulance rescue times in an archipelago subject to super typhoons; to design point-of-care testing strategies for medical emergencies and weather disasters made more intense by global warming and rising oceans; and to assess needs for prehospital testing on spatial care paths that accelerate decision making, increase efficiency, improve outcomes, and enhance standards of care in island nations.<br><br>METHODS: We performed needs assessments, inspected healthcare facilities, and collected ambulance rescue times from professionals in the Bantayan Archipelago, Philippines. We mapped sea/land ambulance rescue routes and time contours. To reveal gaps, we statistically compared the fastest and slowest patient rescue times from islands/islets and barangays to the District Hospital on Bantayan Island. We developed spatial care paths (the fastest routes to care) for acute myocardial infarction, community care, and infectious diseases. We generated a compendium of prehospital diagnostic testing and integrated outcomes evidence, diagnostic needs, and public health goals to recommend point-of-care strategies that build geographic health resilience.<br><br>RESULTS: We observed limited access to COVID-19 assays, absence of blood gas/pH testing for critical care support, and spatial gaps in land and airborne rescues that worsened during inclement weather and sea swells. Mean paired differences (slowest-fastest) in ambulance rescue times to the District Hospital for both islands and barangays were significant (P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.0001). Spatial care path analysis showed where point-of-care cardiac troponin testing should be implemented for expedited care of acute myocardial infarction. Geospatial strengths comprised distributed primary care that can be facilitated by point-of-care testing, logical interisland transfers for which decision making and triage could be accelerated with onboard diagnostics, and healthcare networks amenable to medical advances in prehospital testing that accelerate treatment.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Point-of-care testing should be positioned upstream close to homes and island populations that have prolonged rescue time contours. Geospatially optimized point-of-need diagnostics and distributed prehospital testing have high potential to improve outcomes. These improvements will potentially decrease disparities in mortality among archipelago versus urban dwellers, help improve island public health, and enhance resilience for increasingly adverse and frequent climate change weather disasters that impact vulnerable coastal areas. [350 words].}, }
@article {pmid38123078, year = {2023}, author = {Yang, Y and Wang, Y and Cong, N and Wang, N and Yao, W}, title = {Impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on riparian vegetation in the Yangtze River Basin under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {169415}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169415}, pmid = {38123078}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {As the largest hydroelectric project in the world, the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) is expected to have significant environmental and ecological impacts on riparian vegetation in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). However, existing studies have mainly focused on small segments of the YRB. In addition, few studies have quantified the responses of riparian vegetation to both climatic factors and dam construction. In this study, we investigated riparian vegetation dynamics over the entire YRB before, during, and after the construction of TGD from 1982 to 2015 using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Furthermore, the effects of climatic factors and dam construction on riparian vegetation were quantitatively analyzed using path analysis. The results demonstrate that the YRB has experienced a generally greening trend after TGD construction. The impacts of climate change on riparian vegetation have exhibited notable spatial heterogeneity and temperature is the main climatic factor that affects riparian vegetation growth. Moreover, TGD becomes the major contributor to riparian vegetation dynamics in the YRB after TGD construction. TGD has not only directly enhanced riparian vegetation but also indirectly affected riparian vegetation by regulating the microclimate. This study highlights the significance of anthropogenic interference when evaluating the relationships between riparian vegetation and climatic factors, providing useful insights for the effective management and conservation of large-scale riparian ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38123051, year = {2023}, author = {Li, B and Yang, X and Wang, Y and Rady, A and Zhang, Y}, title = {Intrinsic relationship of outdoor activities between climate change and coastal management: Fresh evidence from the spatial analysis of China.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {244}, number = {}, pages = {117961}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117961}, pmid = {38123051}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {By utilizing the mediation effect model and the spatial Durbin model, this research investigates the influence that environmental restrictions have had on marine pollution in 38 coastal prefecture-level cities from the years 2000-2018. In order to gain a comprehensive understanding of the effect that environmental legislation has on contamination in offshore regions as well as its primary goal, the research takes a variety of different approaches into consideration. Following are the findings from the study; Firstly, pollution levels in coastal marine areas tend to rise at first and then fall when environmental laws are enacted, illustrating a non-linear pattern known as an inverted "U" shape. In order to improve the maritime environment through environmental legislation, it is crucial to support new green technologies. There is a "U" shaped linkage amongst environmental legislation and development of environmentally friendly technologies. Spatial spillover effects may allow for the regulation of coastal city environments to affect marine pollution in neighboring areas. Secondly, there is also an inverted "U" pattern visible in the impact trajectory of this effect. According to the results of this research, it is crucial to set up a strict and factually sound regulatory framework in the field of marine environmental governance. It is also suggested that local context be taken into account while crafting environmental regulating regulations. Also, it's crucial to promote development, dissemination, and use of green technology by completely capitalizing on the innovation's conduction effect. Thirdly, promoting cooperation efforts among areas to avoid and control such pollution is essential, and the transfer and management of offshore pollution between regions must be a top priority.}, }
@article {pmid38116505, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, R and Yu, P and Liu, Y and Chen, G and Yang, Z and Zhang, Y and Wu, Y and Beggs, PJ and Zhang, Y and Boocock, J and Ji, F and Hanigan, I and Jay, O and Bi, P and Vargas, N and Leder, K and Green, D and Quail, K and Huxley, R and Jalaludin, B and Hu, W and Dennekamp, M and Vardoulakis, S and Bone, A and Abrahams, J and Johnston, FH and Broome, R and Capon, T and Li, S and Guo, Y}, title = {Climate change, environmental extremes, and human health in Australia: challenges, adaptation strategies, and policy gaps.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {100936}, pmid = {38116505}, issn = {2666-6065}, abstract = {Climate change presents a major public health concern in Australia, marked by unprecedented wildfires, heatwaves, floods, droughts, and the spread of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Despite these challenges, Australia's response to the climate crisis has been inadequate and subject to change by politics, public sentiment, and global developments. This study illustrates the spatiotemporal patterns of selected climate-related environmental extremes (heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and droughts) across Australia during the past two decades, and summarizes climate adaptation measures and actions that have been taken by the national, state/territory, and local governments. Our findings reveal significant impacts of climate-related environmental extremes on the health and well-being of Australians. While governments have implemented various adaptation strategies, these plans must be further developed to yield concrete actions. Moreover, Indigenous Australians should not be left out in these adaptation efforts. A collaborative, comprehensive approach involving all levels of government is urgently needed to prevent, mitigate, and adapt to the health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38116504, year = {2023}, author = {Pourzand, F and Bolton, A and Salter, C and Hales, S and Woodward, A}, title = {Health and climate change: adaptation policy in Aotearoa New Zealand.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {100954}, pmid = {38116504}, issn = {2666-6065}, abstract = {Recent extreme weather events attributable to climate change have major implications for policy. Here we summarize and evaluate the current state of climate change adaptation policy, from a health perspective, for Aotearoa New Zealand, based on government sources. Legislation relating to both environmental management and health are currently subject to major reforms. At present, adaptation policy emphasises protection of health care facilities from climate extremes; there is insufficient attention paid to broader determinants of health. We argue for greater health input into adaptation planning. Without intersectoral collaboration, contributions from diverse communities, and better support of indigenous solutions, climate change policy is unlikely to achieve effective health outcomes and there is a risk that climate change will exacerbate inequities. We recommend that the Climate Change Commission engage formally and directly with health bodies to strengthen the Commission's advice on the implications of climate change, and of national climate change policies, on health and equity. Climate resilient development does not occur without better public health. For this reason, the health sector has a critical role in the development and implementation of adaptation policy.}, }
@article {pmid38116501, year = {2023}, author = {Aik, J and Ang, L and Gunther, SH and Tang, C and Lee, JKW and Seow, WJ}, title = {Climate change and population health in Singapore: a systematic review.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {100947}, pmid = {38116501}, issn = {2666-6065}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Gaseous emissions have contributed to global warming, an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events and poorer air quality. The associated health impacts have been well reported in temperate regions. In Singapore, key climate change adaptation measures and activities include coastal and flood protection, and mitigating heat impacts. We systematically reviewed studies examining climate variability and air quality with population health in Singapore, a tropical city-state in South-East Asia (SEA), with the aim to identify evidence gaps for policymakers. We included 14 studies with respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular outcomes, foodborne disease and dengue. Absolute humidity (3 studies) and rainfall (2 studies) were positively associated with adverse health. Extreme heat (2 studies) was inversely associated with adverse health. The effects of mean ambient temperature and relative humidity on adverse health were inconsistent. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone were positively associated with adverse health. Climate variability and air quality may have disease-specific, differing directions of effect in Singapore. Additional high quality studies are required to strengthen the evidence for policymaking. Research on effective climate action advocacy and adaptation measures for community activities should be strengthened.<br><br>FUNDING: There was no funding source for this study.}, }
@article {pmid38116500, year = {2023}, author = {Ji, JS and Xia, Y and Liu, L and Zhou, W and Chen, R and Dong, G and Hu, Q and Jiang, J and Kan, H and Li, T and Li, Y and Liu, Q and Liu, Y and Long, Y and Lv, Y and Ma, J and Ma, Y and Pelin, K and Shi, X and Tong, S and Xie, Y and Xu, L and Yuan, C and Zeng, H and Zhao, B and Zheng, G and Liang, W and Chan, M and Huang, C}, title = {China's public health initiatives for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {100965}, pmid = {38116500}, issn = {2666-6065}, abstract = {China's health gains over the past decades face potential reversals if climate change adaptation is not prioritized. China's temperature rise surpasses the global average due to urban heat islands and ecological changes, and demands urgent actions to safeguard public health. Effective adaptation need to consider China's urbanization trends, underlying non-communicable diseases, an aging population, and future pandemic threats. Climate change adaptation initiatives and strategies include urban green space, healthy indoor environments, spatial planning for cities, advance location-specific early warning systems for extreme weather events, and a holistic approach for linking carbon neutrality to health co-benefits. Innovation and technology uptake is a crucial opportunity. China's successful climate adaptation can foster international collaboration regionally and beyond.}, }
@article {pmid38116497, year = {2023}, author = {Linh Tran, NQ and Cam Hong Le, HT and Pham, CT and Nguyen, XH and Tran, ND and Thi Tran, TH and Nghiem, S and Ly Luong, TM and Bui, V and Nguyen-Huy, T and Doan, VQ and Dang, KA and Thuong Do, TH and Thi Ngo, HK and Nguyen, TV and Nguyen, NH and Do, MC and Ton, TN and Thu Dang, TA and Nguyen, K and Tran, XB and Thai, P and Phung, D}, title = {Climate change and human health in Vietnam: a systematic review and additional analyses on current impacts, future risk, and adaptation.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {100943}, pmid = {38116497}, issn = {2666-6065}, abstract = {This study aims to investigate climate change's impact on health and adaptation in Vietnam through a systematic review and additional analyses of heat exposure, heat vulnerability, awareness and engagement, and projected health costs. Out of 127 reviewed studies, findings indicated the wider spread of infectious diseases, and increased mortality and hospitalisation risks associated with extreme heat, droughts, and floods. However, there are few studies addressing health cost, awareness, engagement, adaptation, and policy. Additional analyses showed rising heatwave exposure across Vietnam and global above-average vulnerability to heat. By 2050, climate change is projected to cost up to USD1-3B in healthcare costs, USD3-20B in premature deaths, and USD6-23B in work loss. Despite increased media focus on climate and health, a gap between public and government publications highlighted the need for more governmental engagement. Vietnam's climate policies have faced implementation challenges, including top-down approaches, lack of cooperation, low adaptive capacity, and limited resources.}, }
@article {pmid38112854, year = {2023}, author = {Ngarega, BK and Chaibva, P and Masocha, VF and Saina, JK and Khine, PK and Schneider, H}, title = {Application of MaxEnt modeling to evaluate the climate change effects on the geographic distribution of Lippia javanica (Burm.f.) Spreng in Africa.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {1}, pages = {62}, pmid = {38112854}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Lippia ; Environmental Monitoring ; Africa ; Ecosystem ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Lippia javanica is a typical indigenous plant species mostly found in the higher elevation or mountainous regions in southern, central, and eastern Africa. The ongoing utilization of the species for ethnobotanical applications and traditional uses, coupled with the changing climate, increases the risk of a potential reduction in its geographic distribution range in the region. Herein, we utilized the MaxEnt species distribution modelling to build the L. javanica distribution models in tropical and subtropical African regions for current and future climates. The MaxEnt models were calibrated and fitted using 286 occurrence records and six environmental variables. Temperatures, including temperature seasonality [Bio 4] and the maximum temperature of the warmest month [Bio 5], were observed to be the most significant determinants of L. javanica's distribution. The current projected range for L. javanica was estimated to be 2,118,457 km[2]. Future model predictions indicated that L. javanica may increase its geographic distribution in western areas of the continent and regions around the equator; however, much of the geographic range in southern Africa may shift southwards, causing the species to lose portions of the northern limits of the habitat range. These current findings can help increase the conservation of L. javanica and other species and combat localized species loss induced by climate change and human pressure. We also emphasize the importance of more investigations and enhanced surveillance of traditionally used plant species in regions that are acutely susceptible to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38111977, year = {2023}, author = {Mancini, G and Santini, L and Cazalis, V and Reşit Akçakaya, H and Lucas, PM and Brooks, TM and Foden, W and Marco, MD}, title = {A standard approach for including climate change responses in IUCN Red List assessments.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.14227}, pmid = {38111977}, issn = {1523-1739}, abstract = {The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is a central tool for extinction risk monitoring and influences global biodiversity policy and action. But, to be effective, it is crucial that it consistently accounts for each driver of extinction. Climate change is rapidly becoming a key extinction driver, but consideration of climate change information remains challenging for the IUCN. Several methods can be used to predict species' future decline, but they often fail to provide estimates of the symptoms of endangerment used by IUCN. We devised a standardized method to measure climate change impact in terms of change in habitat quality to inform criterion A3 on future population reduction. Using terrestrial nonvolant tetrapods as a case study, we measured this impact as the difference between the current and the future species climatic niche, defined based on current and future bioclimatic variables under alternative model algorithms, dispersal scenarios, emission scenarios, and climate models. Our models identified 171 species (13% out of those analyzed) for which their current red-list category could worsen under criterion A3 if they cannot disperse beyond their current range in the future. Categories for 14 species (1.5%) could worsen if maximum dispersal is possible. Although ours is a simulation exercise and not a formal red-list assessment, our results suggest that considering climate change impacts may reduce misclassification and strengthen consistency and comprehensiveness of IUCN Red List assessments. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid38111862, year = {2023}, author = {Harcourt, R and Dessai, S and Bruine de Bruin, W and Taylor, A}, title = {A social science research agenda to accelerate public engagement in climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1286525}, pmid = {38111862}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Recent studies find that people in high-income countries now think of climate change impacts, such as flooding or periods of high temperature, as being of immediate relevance and concern. Individuals and households can take adaptation actions to help limit the severity of harm caused when climate impacts occur, for example, they could make adjustments to their homes such as installing flood gates or sun shades, or they could adapt their behavior such as staying indoors during the hottest part of the day. However, so far adaptation is not yet happening at the speed or scale needed to adequately prepare for the climate impacts already being experienced or those projected for the coming decades. Here, we propose an agenda for future social science research that would further our understanding of how best to increase engagement and action in climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid38110409, year = {2023}, author = {Shu, EG and Porter, JR and Hauer, ME and Sandoval Olascoaga, S and Gourevitch, J and Wilson, B and Pope, M and Melecio-Vazquez, D and Kearns, E}, title = {Integrating climate change induced flood risk into future population projections.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {7870}, pmid = {38110409}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Flood exposure has been linked to shifts in population sizes and composition. Traditionally, these changes have been observed at a local level providing insight to local dynamics but not general trends, or at a coarse resolution that does not capture localized shifts. Using historic flood data between 2000-2023 across the Contiguous United States (CONUS), we identify the relationships between flood exposure and population change. We demonstrate that observed declines in population are statistically associated with higher levels of historic flood exposure, which may be subsequently coupled with future population projections. Several locations have already begun to see population responses to observed flood exposure and are forecasted to have decreased future growth rates as a result. Finally, we find that exposure to high frequency flooding (5 and 20-year return periods) results in 2-7% lower growth rates than baseline projections. This is exacerbated in areas with relatively high exposure to frequent flooding where growth is expected to decline over the next 30 years.}, }
@article {pmid38109562, year = {2024}, author = {Perret, DL and Evans, MEK and Sax, DF}, title = {A species' response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {121}, number = {1}, pages = {e2304404120}, pmid = {38109562}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {//Brown University Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology/ ; //Institute at Brown for Environment and Society/ ; //American Philosophical Society (APS)/ ; MSP-ECA 1802893//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Trees/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Pinus ponderosa ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.}, }
@article {pmid38108013, year = {2023}, author = {Colón Carrión, N and Macchiavelli Girón, S}, title = {From the classroom to the farm: a lesson plan that promotes smallholder farmers' education and training about plant pathology in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of microbiology &amp; biology education}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {38108013}, issn = {1935-7877}, abstract = {Climate change represents one of the biggest threats to agricultural productivity around the world. In the tropics, extreme climate and pest and disease outbreaks represent one of the biggest climate change threats to smallholder farmers. Understanding smallholder farmers' educational needs and increasing access to information and awareness of climate change through education and training are key first steps to enhance the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers. In a primary effort to increase accessible training and education to these communities, we developed a plant pathology lesson plan. The lesson plan introduces basic concepts in plant pathology and disease management using diverse educational activities focused on experiential and collaborative learning. This lesson plan may have implications in enhancing farmers' adaptive capacity and increasing accessible education to underrepresented farming communities around the world.}, }
@article {pmid38107916, year = {2023}, author = {Laftouhi, A and Eloutassi, N and Ech-Chihbi, E and Rais, Z and Taleb, A and Assouguem, A and Ullah, R and Kara, M and Fidan, H and Beniken, M and Taleb, M}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on the Chemical Compositions and Antioxidant Activity of Mentha pulegium L.}, journal = {ACS omega}, volume = {8}, number = {49}, pages = {46598-46607}, pmid = {38107916}, issn = {2470-1343}, abstract = {A central position in Moroccan ethnobotany is held by the Mentha genus, serving as a vital reference for aromatic and medicinal plants within the Lamiaceae family. The profound importance of Mentha species in the daily lives of Moroccans is recognized, and the primary objective of this study is to assess the impact of rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation on the primary and secondary metabolites of Mentha pulegium under the following climatic conditions: sample 1, cultivated under standard temperature and precipitation conditions during the first year; sample 2, subjected to an 8 °C temperature increase and a 25% reduction in water supply; and sample 3, exposed to a 12 °C temperature rise and a 50% decrease in water availability. Phytochemical screening results reveal a progressive decline in primary metabolites from sample 1 to sample 3 due to the increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Conversely, a distinct trend is observed in secondary metabolites and the yield of essential oil, increasing from sample 1 to sample 2 as the temperature rises and precipitation decreases. Remarkably, in sample 3, the yield of essential oil decreases as climatic conditions further deteriorate. Additionally, GC analysis demonstrates that modifications in the chemical compositions of essential oils occur because of the disruption of climatic parameters, particularly in the major compounds. Similarly, changes in climatic parameters significantly influence antioxidant activity, with sample 2 exhibiting the highest activity, as reflected by an IC50 value (half-maximal inhibitory concentration) of 14,874.04 μg/mL, followed by the third sample at 8488.43 μg/mL, whereas the first sample exhibits the lowest activity at 4505.02 μg/mL. In summary, the complex relationship between climatic factors and the chemical composition of Mentha pulegium is highlighted by our experiment, emphasizing its implications for medicinal properties within an ecological context.}, }
@article {pmid38107558, year = {2023}, author = {Fisher, S}, title = {Opening up New Geographical Ontologies around Adapting to Climate Change.}, journal = {Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie = Journal of economic and social geography = Revue de geographie economique et humaine = Zeitschrift fur okonomische und soziale Geographie = Revista de geografia economica y social}, volume = {114}, number = {2}, pages = {79-85}, pmid = {38107558}, issn = {0040-747X}, abstract = {Opening up regional ontologies for climate action is a necessary and underexplored dimension of climate change policymaking. This commentary explores how a regional lens might be integrated into the complex mosaic of climate governance, particularly in the context of resilient regions. I argue regional ontologies for climate policymaking could have greater analytical power if integrated into a theoretical framing of action that goes beyond the nation-state, beyond formal policy processes and beyond a strict binary between science and policy. Applying this lens to resilient regions, I argue there are particular opportunities at the regional scale for highlighting diverse perspectives or adaptation issues obscured through a national ontology, using existing transnational data infrastructure and community-led data systems to support the regional ontology and reframing the scale of collective future visions for a climate-adapted world.}, }
@article {pmid38106391, year = {2023}, author = {Plohl, N and Mlakar, I and Musil, B and Smrke, U}, title = {Measuring young individuals' responses to climate change: validation of the Slovenian versions of the climate anxiety scale and the climate change worry scale.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1297782}, pmid = {38106391}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: While increasing awareness of climate change is needed to address this threat to the natural environment and humanity, it may simultaneously negatively impact mental health. Previous studies suggest that climate-specific mental health phenomena, such as climate anxiety and worry, tend to be especially pronounced in youth. To properly understand and address these issues, we need valid measures that can also be used in non-Anglophone samples. Therefore, in the present paper, we aimed to validate Slovenian versions of the Climate Anxiety Scale (CAS) and the Climate Change Worry Scale (CCWS) among Slovenian youth.<br><br>METHOD: We conducted an online survey in which 442 young individuals (18-24&#x2009;years) from Slovenia filled out the two central questionnaires and additional instruments capturing other relevant constructs (e.g., general anxiety, neuroticism, and behavioral engagement).<br><br>RESULTS: The confirmatory factor analyses results supported the hypothesized factorial structure of the CAS (two factors) and the CCWS (one factor). Both scales also demonstrated great internal reliability. Moreover, the analyses exploring both constructs' nomological networks showed moderate positive associations with similar measures, such as anxiety and stress (convergent validity), and very weak associations with measures they should not be particularly related to, such as narcissism (discriminant validity). Lastly, we found that the CAS and, even more so, the CCWS have unique predictive value in explaining outcomes such as perceived threat, support for climate policies, and behavioral engagement (incremental validity).<br><br>DISCUSSION: Overall, Slovenian versions of the CAS and the CCWS seem to be valid, reliable, and appropriate for future studies tackling young individuals' responses to climate change. Limitations of the study and areas for future research are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid38105794, year = {2023}, author = {Bolte, G and Dandolo, L and Gepp, S and Hornberg, C and Lumbi, SL}, title = {Climate change and health equity: A public health perspective on climate justice.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 6}, pages = {3-35}, pmid = {38105794}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The discourse on climate justice has developed from the theoretical approaches and discussions on environmental justice. A central tenet of the concept of environmental and climate justice is that environmental and climate issues cannot be seen in isolation from issues of social justice.<br><br>METHODS: A conceptual model was developed on the relationship between climate change impacts, social dimensions, adaptive capacities, biological sensitivity, and health equity in order to systematically analyse climate justice. Based on an exploratory literature review and the evaluation of the individual contributions of the status report on climate change and health, the evidence in Germany on social inequalities in exposure to climate change impacts and vulnerability to their direct and indirect health effects was summarised.<br><br>RESULTS: This paper provides an overview of the international debate and examples of evidence on climate justice in Germany. Climate justice in the sense of avoidable, unjust social inequalities in exposure, vulnerability, and the effects of climate mitigation and adaptation measures on health inequalities is still insufficiently addressed in Germany.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A consistent integration of equity issues into climate policy is necessary. With reference to the international literature, options for action and research needs are identified.}, }
@article {pmid38105793, year = {2023}, author = {Mlinarić, M and Moebus, S and Betsch, C and Hertig, E and Schröder, J and Loss, J and Moosburger, R and van Rüth, P and Gepp, S and Voss, M and Straff, W and Kessel, TM and Goecke, M and Matzarakis, A and Niemann, H}, title = {Climate change and public health in Germany - A synthesis of options for action from the German status report on climate change and health 2023.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 6}, pages = {57-85}, pmid = {38105793}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This article represents the conclusion of the updated German status report on climate change and health, which was jointly written by authors from over 30 national institutions and organisations. The objectives are (a) to synthesise the options for action formulated in the report, (b) to combine them into clusters and guiding principles, (c) to address the success factors for implementation, and (d) to combine the options for action into target parameters.<br><br>METHODS: The options for action from the individual contributions of the status report were systematically recorded and categorised (n=236). Topical clusters were then formed with reference to Essential Public Health Functions, and options for action were assigned to them.<br><br>RESULTS: Eight topical clusters of options for action and ten guiding principles were identified. These can be summarised in four overarching meta-levels of action: (a) cross-sectorally coordinated structural and behavioural prevention, (b) monitoring, surveillance, and digitalisation (including early warning systems), (c) development of an ecologically sustainable and resilient public health system, and (d) information, communication, and participation. The main success factors for implementation are the design of governance, positive storytelling and risk communication, proactive management of conflicting goals, and a cross-sectoral co-benefit approach.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Based on the status report, systematically compiled target parameters and concrete options for action are available for public health.}, }
@article {pmid38105792, year = {2023}, author = {Lehrer, L and Hellmann, L and Temme, H and Otten, L and Hübenthal, J and Geiger, M and Jenny, MA and Betsch, C}, title = {Communicating climate change and health to specific target groups.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 6}, pages = {36-56}, pmid = {38105792}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The German status report on climate change and health 2023 identifies numerous health risks that are caused or exacerbated by climate change. One recommendation arising from the report is to strengthen education, information, and communication in the field. This article aims to serve as a basis for this.<br><br>METHODS: Based on four survey waves (2022/2023) of the PACE study (Planetary Health Action Survey, n=3,845, online), the status of risk perception as well as the Readiness to Act against climate change in the adult population in Germany is examined and a target group analysis is carried out.<br><br>RESULTS: Some health risks due to the climate crisis are perceived as comparatively low (e.g. mental health problems). People with higher risk perception show a higher Readiness to Act. Younger people, men, people with low education, and those living in smaller communities are identified as relevant target groups as they have a lower Readiness to Act. One third state that they never or hardly ever seek out specific information on climate change. Media use differs depending on target group.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Target group-specific communication can help to educate people about the health impacts of the climate crisis. In the discussion of this article, implications from existing literature are discussed in detail, which offer practical guidance for effective climate change communication.}, }
@article {pmid38105549, year = {2023}, author = {Bailey, RC and Reynoldson, TB}, title = {Can datasets from long-term biomonitoring programs detect climate change effects on stream benthos?.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {106}, number = {4}, pages = {368504231219335}, pmid = {38105549}, issn = {2047-7163}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Invertebrates/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Biological Monitoring ; Climate Change ; Rivers/chemistry ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {We analyzed datasets from a long-term monitoring program of stream ecosystems in British Columbia, Canada, to determine whether or not it could detect climate change effects. In the Fraser River Basin (monitoring timespan 1994-2019), there was a marked (∼50%) increase in alpha diversity in reference streams, while BC North Coast (2004-2021) streams showed a modest trend of decreasing diversity and Columbia River Basin (2003-2018) and Vancouver Island (2001-2019) streams showed modestly increasing diversity. In all four regions, diversity across all sites in a specific period was primarily a function of sampling effort during this period rather than a temporal trend. Across all the regions, only three of 21 groups of faunally similar sites defined by Reference Condition Approach predictive modeling showed a suggestion of a directional change in community structure over time. Only 1 of 15 reference sites that were repeatedly sampled over several years showed a pattern that may indicate a response to changing climate. Three, not mutually exclusive, reasons why we did not see a clear effect of climate change on BC stream ecosystems were: 1) Little or no effect of climate change relative to other, potentially interacting biotic and abiotic factors, 2) The timespan of monitoring was too short to detect cumulative effects of climate change, and, most importantly, 3) The sampling design and protocol were unable to detect climate change effects. To better detect and characterize the effects of climate change on streams in monitoring programs, we recommend annual re-sampling of a few reference sites and detailed analysis of the natural and human environment of the sites along with better characterization of the benthic community (e.g. with eDNA) at all monitored sites.}, }
@article {pmid38105526, year = {2023}, author = {Fathimah, S and Suarjana, IWG}, title = {Local wisdom in infectious disease surveillance: an anthropology of climate change in Indonesia.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdad274}, pmid = {38105526}, issn = {1741-3850}, }
@article {pmid38105515, year = {2023}, author = {Suarjana, IWG}, title = {Increased occupational health and safety in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdad269}, pmid = {38105515}, issn = {1741-3850}, }
@article {pmid38105506, year = {2023}, author = {Suarjana, IWG}, title = {Institutional strategies for climate change-responsive disease surveillance.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdad270}, pmid = {38105506}, issn = {1741-3850}, }
@article {pmid38105502, year = {2023}, author = {Ningsih, AP and Sari, TB and Sudirham,  and Makkau, BA and Indirwan, D}, title = {Climate change and One Health approach.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdad272}, pmid = {38105502}, issn = {1741-3850}, }
@article {pmid38105356, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {The rocky relationship between global warming and ocean biodiversity: an interview with Rui Seabra.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {1275}, doi = {10.1038/s42003-023-05597-1}, pmid = {38105356}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Biodiversity ; Phylogeny ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Dr. Rui Seabra studies the thermal landscapes of rocky shores across the world and how environmental complexity drives species’ distributions and vulnerability to global warming. He co-leads the Coupled Coastal Temperature and Biodiversity Observation Network (CCTBON), a network aimed at monitoring patterns of rocky shore temperatures and biodiversity patterns across the Atlantic Ocean. In this Q&amp;A we discuss the challenges of biodiversity research at the global scale.}, }
@article {pmid38105260, year = {2023}, author = {Farman, M and Shehzad, A and Nisar, KS and Hincal, E and Akgul, A and Hassan, AM}, title = {Generalized Ulam-Hyers-Rassias stability and novel sustainable techniques for dynamical analysis of global warming impact on ecosystem.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {22441}, pmid = {38105260}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Global Warming ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Fisheries ; Oxygen ; }, abstract = {Marine structure changes as a result of climate change, with potential biological implications for human societies and marine ecosystems. These changes include changes in temperatures, flow, discrimination, nutritional inputs, oxygen availability, and acidification of the ocean. In this study, a fractional-order model is constructed using the Caputo fractional operator, which singular and nol-local kernel. A model examines the effects of accelerating global warming on aquatic ecosystems while taking into account variables that change over time, such as the environment and organisms. The positively invariant area also demonstrates positive, bounded solutions of the model treated. The equilibrium states for the occurrence and extinction of fish populations are derived for a feasible solution of the system. We also used fixed-point theorems to analyze the existence and uniqueness of the model. The generalized Ulam-Hyers-Rassias function is used to analyze the stability of the system. To study the impact of the fractional operator through computational simulations, results are generated employing a two-step Lagrange polynomial in the generalized version for the power law kernel and also compared the results with an exponential law and Mittag Leffler kernel. We also produce graphs of the model at various fractional derivative orders to illustrate the important influence that the fractional order has on the different classes of the model with the memory effects of the fractional operator. To help with the oversight of fisheries, this research builds mathematical connections between the natural world and aquatic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38105165, year = {2023}, author = {Tang, S and Piao, S and Holland, DM and Kan, F and Wang, T and Yao, T and Li, X}, title = {Resonance between projected Tibetan Plateau surface darkening and Arctic climate change.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2023.12.008}, pmid = {38105165}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts a profound influence on global climate over million-year timescales due to its past uplift. However, whether the ongoing climate changes over the TP, particularly the persistent reduction in its local albedo (referred to as "TP surface darkening"), can exert global impacts remains elusive. In this study, a state-of-the-art coupled land-atmosphere global climate model has been employed to scrutinize the impact of TP darkening on polar climate changes. Results indicate that the projected TP darkening has the potential to generate a stationary Rossby wave train, thereby modulating the atmospheric circulation in the high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and instigating a dipole-like surface air temperature anomaly pattern around the Arctic region. An additional experiment suggests that the projected Arctic warming may in return warm the TP, thus forming a bi-directional linkage between these two climate systems. Given their association with vast ice reservoirs, the elucidation of this mechanism in our study is crucial in advancing our comprehension of Earth system climate projections.}, }
@article {pmid38105071, year = {2024}, author = {Lu, T and Lü, F and Liao, N and Chai, H and Zhang, H and He, P}, title = {Material flow analysis and global warming potential assessment of an industrial insect-based bioconversion plant using housefly larvae.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {139}, number = {}, pages = {483-495}, doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2023.05.007}, pmid = {38105071}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {Animals ; Global Warming ; *Houseflies ; Larva ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Composting ; }, abstract = {The significant increase in the demand for biomass waste treatment after garbage classification has led to housefly larvae treatment becoming an attractive treatment option. It can provide a source of protein while treating biomass waste, which means that nutrients can be returned to the natural food chain. However, the performance of this technology in terms of its environmental impacts is still unclear, particularly with regards to global warming potential (GWP).This study used a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach to assess a housefly larvae treatment plant with a treatment capacity of 50 tons of biomass waste per day. The LCA results showed that the 95% confidence intervals for the GWP in summer and winter were determined to be 24.46-32.81 kg CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq)/ton biomass waste and 5.37-10.08 kg CO2-eq/ton biomass waste, respectively. The greater GWP value in summer is due to the longer ventilation time and higher ventilation intensity in summer, which consumes more power. The main GWP contributions are from (1) electricity needs (accounting for 78.6% of emissions in summer and 70.2% in winter) and (2) product substitution by mature housefly larvae and compost (both summer and winter accounting for 96.8% of carbon reduction).}, }
@article {pmid38104960, year = {2023}, author = {Guo, W and Ma, C and Kang, L}, title = {Community change and population outbreak of grasshoppers driven by climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {61}, number = {}, pages = {101154}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2023.101154}, pmid = {38104960}, issn = {2214-5753}, abstract = {The response of insects to climate changes in various aspects has been well-documented. However, there is a dearth of comprehensive review specifically focusing on the response and adaptation of grasshoppers, which are important primary consumers and pests in grassland and agricultural ecosystems. The coexistence of grasshopper species forms diverse communities and coherent groups in spatial-temporal scales. It makes them excellent models for studying the interplay of phenology, dispersal, trophic relationship, and population dynamics, all influenced by climate changes. Certain grasshopper species have adapted to climate change through mechanisms such as diapause. Here, we delve into grasshopper community changes, their adaptive strategies, and population outbreaks in response to climate change and land use. By serving as ecological indicators, grasshoppers offer valuable insights for monitoring climatic and environmental shifts. Last, this review puts forth several future directions for comprehending the population dynamics of insects in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38103616, year = {2023}, author = {Song, D and Zhang, C and Saber, A}, title = {Integrating impacts of climate change on aquatic environments in inter-basin water regulation: Establishing a critical threshold for best management practices.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {913}, number = {}, pages = {169297}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169297}, pmid = {38103616}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Inter-basin water diversion (IBWD) is a viable strategy to tackle water scarcity and quality degradation due to climate change and increasing water demand in headwaters regions. Nevertheless, the capacity of IBWD to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water quality has rarely been quantified, and the underlying processes are not well understood. Therefore, this study aims to elucidate how the IBWD manipulated total phosphorus (TP) loading dilution and conveying patterns under climate change and determine a critical threshold for the quantity of water entering downstream reservoirs (WIN) for operational scheduling. To resolve this issue, climate-driven hydrologic variability over a 60-year period was derived utilizing the least square fitting approach. Subsequently, six scenarios evaluating the response of in-lake TP concentrations (TPL) to increased temperatures and IBWDs of 50 %, 100 %, and 150 % from the baseline water volume in 2030 and 2050 were studied by employing a calibrated hydrological-water quality model (SWAT-YRWQM). In the next stage, three datasets derived from mathematical statistics based on the observed data, the Vollenweider formula, and modeled projections were integrated to formulate best management practices. The results revealed that elevated air temperatures would lead to reduced annual catchment runoff but increased IBWD. Additionally, our study quantified the IBWD potential for mitigating water quality degradation, indicating the adverse effects of climate change on TPL would be weakened by 4.2-14.4 %. A critical threshold for WIN was also quantified at 617 million m[3], maintaining WIN at or near 617 million m[3] through optimized operational scheduling of IBWD could effectively restrict external inflow TP loading to lower levels. This study clearly illustrates the intricate interactive effects of climate change and IBWD on aquatic environments. The methodology elucidated in this study for determining the critical threshold of WIN could be applied in water management for analogous watershed-receiving waterbody systems.}, }
@article {pmid38102819, year = {2023}, author = {Allen, EM and Munala, L and Ward-Rannow, J}, title = {Do Gender-Based Violence Interventions Consider the Impacts of Climate Change? A Systematic Review.}, journal = {Trauma, violence &amp; abuse}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {15248380231214793}, doi = {10.1177/15248380231214793}, pmid = {38102819}, issn = {1552-8324}, abstract = {Climate change and extreme weather events have been shown to increase incidences of gender-based violence (GBV). Numerous organizations have devoted significant time, resources, and effort to the design and implementation of interventions aimed at reducing GBV in Africa. Some interventions effectively reduce violence, but GBV persists and remains pervasive. The United Nations has called for GBV interventions that consider the impact of climate change on violence. This review aims to determine whether public health interventions intended to reduce GBV in Africa take into account the effects of climate change on the region and the population. PubMed, PsychArticles, and CINAHL databases were searched systematically in February 2023 for interventions conducted in Africa published between 2010 and 2023. There were a total of 86 articles in the final review that described 40 distinct interventions. The intervention designs included empowerment and participatory approaches (microfinance, microfinance plus, community education, and community engagement), changing social and cultural norms (community education, community engagement, and media), and school-based programs. None of the 40 interventions mentioned climate, weather, or climate change as a component of the intervention. There are several opportunities to improve existing, successful GBV interventions in order to increase their efficacy. GBV interventions could incorporate economic independence programs that do not rely on agriculture and include climate change education. These findings could facilitate the integration of two previously distinct research disciplines-climate change and GBV prevention-to inform future research and develop more effective and cost-efficient interventions.}, }
@article {pmid38102400, year = {2023}, author = {Gonzalez, VH and Manweiler, R and Smith, AR and Oyen, K and Cardona, D and Wcislo, WT}, title = {Low heat tolerance and high desiccation resistance in nocturnal bees and the implications for nocturnal pollination under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {22320}, pmid = {38102400}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {DBI 1560389//Directorate for Biological Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {Female ; Animals ; Bees ; *Climate Change ; *Thermotolerance ; Ecosystem ; Pollination ; Desiccation ; Insecta ; }, abstract = {Predicting insect responses to climate change is essential for preserving ecosystem services and biodiversity. Due to high daytime temperatures and low humidity levels, nocturnal insects are expected to have lower heat and desiccation tolerance compared to diurnal species. We estimated the lower (CTMin) and upper (CTMax) thermal limits of Megalopta, a group of neotropical, forest-dwelling bees. We calculated warming tolerance (WT) as a metric to assess vulnerability to global warming and measured survival rates during simulated heatwaves and desiccation stress events. We also assessed the impact of body size and reproductive status (ovary area) on bees' thermal limits. Megalopta displayed lower CTMin, CTMax, and WTs than diurnal bees (stingless bees, orchid bees, and carpenter bees), but exhibited similar mortality during simulated heatwave and higher desiccation tolerance. CTMin increased with increasing body size across all bees but decreased with increasing body size and ovary area in Megalopta, suggesting a reproductive cost or differences in thermal environments. CTMax did not increase with increasing body size or ovary area. These results indicate a greater sensitivity of Megalopta to temperature than humidity and reinforce the idea that nocturnal insects are thermally constrained, which might threaten pollination services in nocturnal contexts during global warming.}, }
@article {pmid38102377, year = {2023}, author = {Robinson, A}, title = {How to parent AI, and climate change vs democracy: Books in brief.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-04054-7}, pmid = {38102377}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid38100859, year = {2024}, author = {López-Sánchez, A and Sánchez, I and Herráez, F and Gülçin, D and Tang, T and Perea, R and Velázquez, J}, title = {Identifying keystone connectivity spots under climate change: Implications to conservation and management of riparian systems.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {351}, number = {}, pages = {119782}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119782}, pmid = {38100859}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change has intensified the effects of habitat fragmentation in many ecosystems, particularly exacerbated in riparian habitats. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify keystone connectivity spots to ensure long-term conservation and sustainable management of riparian systems as they play a crucial role for landscape connectivity. This paper aims to identify critical areas for connectivity under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 models) for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 and to group these critical areas by similar connectivity in keystone spots for sustainable management. A set of analyses comprising climate analysis, drainage network analysis, configuration of potential riparian habitats, riparian habitat connectivity, data clustering, and statistical analysis within a Spanish river basin (NW Spain) were applied. The node and link connectivity would be reduced under the two climate change scenarios (≈2.5 % and 4.4 % reduction, respectively), intensifying riparian habitat fragmentation. Furthermore, 51 different clusters (critical areas) were obtained and classified in five classes (keystone spots) with similar connectivity across the different scenarios of climate change. Each keystone spot obtained by hierarchical classification was associated with one or more climate scenarios. One of these keystone spots was especially susceptible to the worst climate change scenario. Key riparian connectivity spots will be crucial for the management and restoration of highly threatened riparian systems and to ensure long-term biodiversity conservation.}, }
@article {pmid38100223, year = {2023}, author = {Stanley, SK and Jylhä, KM and Leviston, Z and Walker, I}, title = {Is conservative opposition to climate change threat-based? Articulating an integrated threat model of climate change attitudes.}, journal = {The British journal of social psychology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/bjso.12710}, pmid = {38100223}, issn = {2044-8309}, support = {//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; //Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det/ ; }, abstract = {Throughout the literature, there are assertions that those endorsing conservative ideologies reject the science and solutions of climate change due to perceived threat. That is, they fear that accepting climate change means accepting problems with a favoured socioeconomic system and supporting action on climate change threatens to disrupt these systems. We draw together lines of research and reasoning on this topic to outline three key predictions this perspective makes about the drivers of conservative denial of climate change and opposition to climate policy. The first is that an asymmetry exists in climate-related threat perceptions, whereby greater endorsement of conservative ideology predicts lower perceived threat from climate change and greater perceived threat from climate reform. Second, climate-related threat perceptions are multifaceted, such that threats to economic and cultural well-being can be experienced, at personal or collective levels. Third, the asymmetry in threat perceptions explains conservatives' lower support for pro-climate reforms. We then specify a new integrated threat model of climate change attitudes, review the current evidence for and against each prediction in this model and outline ways to interrogate these theoretical predictions with empirical research. Doing so will advance understanding of the underpinnings of ideological disagreement on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38099507, year = {2023}, author = {Pareja-Bonilla, D and Arista, M and Morellato, LPC and Ortiz, PL}, title = {Better soon than never: climate change induces strong phenological reassembly in the flowering of a Mediterranean shrub community.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcad193}, pmid = {38099507}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {● Flowering is a key process in the life cycle of a plant. Climate change is shifting flowering phenologies in the Northern Hemisphere, but studies with long data series at community level are scarce, and even more so those regarding the consequences of phenological changes for emerging ecological interactions. In the Mediterranean region, the effects of climate change are stronger than the global average and there is an urgent need to understand how biodiversity will be affected in this area. ● In this study we investigated how the entire flowering phenology of a community comprising 51 perennial species from the south of the Iberian Peninsula changed from the decade of the 1980s to the 2020s. Furthermore, we have analysed the consequences of these changes for flowering order and co-flowering patterns. ● We have found that the flowering phenology of the community has advanced by about 20 days, and was coherent with the increasing temperatures related to climate change. Individual species have generally advanced their entire flowering phenology (start and end) and increased their flowering duration. The early flowering has resulted in a re-organisation of the flowering order of the community and generated a new co-flowering assemblages of species, with a slight trend towards an increase of shared flowering time among species. ● The advanced flowering phenology and changes on flower duration reported here were of unprecedented magnitude, showcasing the extreme effects of climate change on Mediterranean ecosystems. Furthermore, the effects were not similar among species, which could be attributed to differences in sensitivities of environmental cues for flowering. One consequence of these changes in flowering times is the ecological mismatches indicated by the changes in flower order and co-flowering between decades. The novel scenario may lead to new competition or facilitation interactions and to the loss or gain of pollinators.}, }
@article {pmid38098973, year = {2023}, author = {Toteja, N and Gandhi, AP and Satapathy, P and Rustagi, S and Sah, R}, title = {Climate change and its impediments to global health security.}, journal = {Health science reports}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {e1764}, pmid = {38098973}, issn = {2398-8835}, }
@article {pmid38098821, year = {2023}, author = {Grande, AJ and Dias, IMAV and Jardim, PTC and Vieira Machado, AA and Soratto, J and da Rosa, MI and Roever, L and Bisognin Ceretta, L and Zourntos, X and Harding, S}, title = {University indigenous students' perspectives on climate change and survival of indigenous peoples in Brazil: a concept mapping study.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1236662}, pmid = {38098821}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; *Health Services Accessibility ; *Climate Change ; Brazil ; Universities ; Human Rights ; Indigenous Peoples ; Students ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to identify what indigenous university students in Brazil perceived to be important and feasible actions to protect the survival of indigenous peoples from climate change-related impacts.<br><br>METHODS: Concept mapping, which is a participatory mixed methodology, was conducted virtually with 20 indigenous students at two universities in Brazil. A focus prompt was developed from consultations with indigenous stakeholders and read "To protect the survival of the Indigenous Peoples from climate change, it is necessary to&#x2026;". Students brainstormed 46 statements, which they then sorted into clusters based on conceptual similarity. They rated each statement for importance and feasibility. Quantitative multivariate analyses of clusters and ratings were conducted to produce multiple visual maps of perceived actionable priorities. These analyses used the Group Wisdom TM software.<br><br>RESULTS: Students agreed on 8 clusters that reflect the factors that influence the survival of indigenous peoples-preservation of lands 0.16 (SD 0.13), protection of demarcated lands 0.31 (SD 0.10), indigenous health and wellbeing 0.35 (SD 0.14), ancestral customs 0.46 (SD 0.04), global and national actions 0.61 (SD 0.13), indigenous rights 0.64 (SD 0.23), collective living 0.71 (SD 0.21), and respect 0.75 (SD 0.14).<br><br>DISCUSSION: The most actionable priorities are related to the respect for their lands and customs, educational initiatives in schools about the importance of indigenous peoples to society, guarantees for basic health rights, and culturally appropriate provision of care, with specific mention of mental healthcare. The findings aligned closely with the concept of indigenous self-determination, which is rooted in autonomy and respect for cultural diversity, and the right to make decisions that impact their lives, land, and resources.}, }
@article {pmid38098153, year = {2024}, author = {Torres-Ruiz, JM and Cochard, H and Delzon, S and Boivin, T and Burlett, R and Cailleret, M and Corso, D and Delmas, CEL and De Caceres, M and Diaz-Espejo, A and Fernández-Conradi, P and Guillemot, J and Lamarque, LJ and Limousin, JM and Mantova, M and Mencuccini, M and Morin, X and Pimont, F and De Dios, VR and Ruffault, J and Trueba, S and Martin-StPaul, NK}, title = {Plant hydraulics at the heart of plant, crops and ecosystem functions in the face of climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {241}, number = {3}, pages = {984-999}, doi = {10.1111/nph.19463}, pmid = {38098153}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {Ecodiv Department - Psihub network//Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement/ ; //ECODIV department of INRAE/ ; #862221//H2020 Project FORGENIUS/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Water/physiology ; Soil ; Crops, Agricultural ; Droughts ; }, abstract = {Plant hydraulics is crucial for assessing the plants' capacity to extract and transport water from the soil up to their aerial organs. Along with their capacity to exchange water between plant compartments and regulate evaporation, hydraulic properties determine plant water relations, water status and susceptibility to pathogen attacks. Consequently, any variation in the hydraulic characteristics of plants is likely to significantly impact various mechanisms and processes related to plant growth, survival and production, as well as the risk of biotic attacks and forest fire behaviour. However, the integration of hydraulic traits into disciplines such as plant pathology, entomology, fire ecology or agriculture can be significantly improved. This review examines how plant hydraulics can provide new insights into our understanding of these processes, including modelling processes of vegetation dynamics, illuminating numerous perspectives for assessing the consequences of climate change on forest and agronomic systems, and addressing unanswered questions across multiple areas of knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid38097082, year = {2023}, author = {Rogy, N and Pastor, A and Sferratore, A and Géhéniau, N and Hélias, A and Loiseau, E}, title = {Taking the spatio-temporal effects of climate change into account for Life Cycle Assessment of prospective scenarios to secure water supplies in agricultural areas.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {169345}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169345}, pmid = {38097082}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To cope with climate change, agricultural territories are forced to implement adaptation strategies, including the implementation of irrigation infrastructures. These strategies are deployed over a long term, and their environmental performance may vary in time and space due to climate change. Environmental assessment methods that include spatio-temporal dynamics must be developed to identify long term "no-regret" scenarios. This study proposes an innovative approach based on the coupling between a crop model, i.e. AquaCrop, and the Territorial-Life Cycle Assessment (T-LCA) framework. Results are exemplified and discussed, with comparison of scenarios with or without irrigation, between 1981 and 2099, at six contrasting locations in terms of climate and soil conditions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5-8.5 scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The assessments report that climate change can affect the eco-efficiency of irrigated perimeters over time. Moreover, climate change may alter the conclusions of the comparison of scenarios with or without irrigation infrastructure at a given location. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on key parameters of the study highlighting the importance of the electricity mix. Finally, spatio-temporal dynamics need to be considered to assess the environmental performance of long-term land planning scenarios and account for environmental effects such as climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38096974, year = {2024}, author = {George, AM and Ansumana, R and de Souza, DK and Niyas, VKM and Zumla, A and Bockarie, MJ}, title = {Climate change and the rising incidence of vector-borne diseases globally.}, journal = {International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases}, volume = {139}, number = {}, pages = {143-145}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijid.2023.12.004}, pmid = {38096974}, issn = {1878-3511}, }
@article {pmid38093997, year = {2023}, author = {Vento, B and Cuesta, F and Cavieres, L}, title = {Editorial: Carbon sequestration and climate change in crops, natural vegetation, and wetland dynamics in the high Andes.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1338577}, pmid = {38093997}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid38093059, year = {2023}, author = {Witze, A}, title = {How Earth's first global heat officer is tackling climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {624}, number = {7992}, pages = {502}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-03924-4}, pmid = {38093059}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*United Nations/organization &amp; administration ; *Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid38092434, year = {2023}, author = {Katzman, JG and Wheat, S and Christiano, AS}, title = {When Climate Change Shows Up in the Exam Room.}, journal = {Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine : JABFM}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3122/jabfm.2023.230200R1}, pmid = {38092434}, issn = {1558-7118}, abstract = {Climate change is considered one of the greatest threats to humanity and the most significant global public health emergency of our lifetime. Millions of people from throughout the globe suffer and die each year from degraded air quality, extreme heat, water and vector-borne diseases as well as the mental health effects of climate change. Because clinicians are considered one of the most trusted sources of climate information, they have a unique opportunity to communicate the many health-related effects of climate change to their patients. It is important for clinicians to understand the most beneficial techniques to use when communicating with patients who may need more information regarding climate change and extreme weather events. These include 1) meeting patients where they are, 2) providing patient education, and 3) telling authentic stories. Developing and delivering effective communication strategies to our patients to prevent and prepare for climate-related health issues are paramount- if we are to make meaningful progress.}, }
@article {pmid38091114, year = {2023}, author = {Nama, AH and Alwan, IA and Pham, QB}, title = {Climate change and future challenges to the sustainable management of the Iraqi marshlands.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {1}, pages = {35}, pmid = {38091114}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Iraq ; Environmental Monitoring ; Water ; }, abstract = {The application of restoration plans for the Iraqi marshlands is encountering significant challenges due to water scarcity and the impacts of climate change. This paper assesses the impact of water scarcity on the possibility of continuing the application of restoration and sustainable management plans for the main marshlands in Iraq. This assessment was conducted based on the available data and expected situation of available water resources under climate change conditions until the year 2035. Additionally, a satellite image-based index model was prepared and applied for the period 2009-2020 to obtain the spatiotemporal distribution of the restored marshlands. The results show that the shortage in water resources and insufficient inundation rates prevented the adequate application of the restoration plans. Also, applying the scenarios of distributing the deficit equally over all water demand sectors (S1) and according to the percentage of demand for each sector (S2) shows that the expected deficit in available water for the three marshes by the years 2025 and 2035 will be approximately 25% and 32% for S1 and 9% for S2. Consequently, the considered marshes are expected to lose approximately 20 to 33% of their eligible restoration areas. Accordingly, looking for suitable alternatives to support the water resources of these marshes became a very urgent matter and/or recourse to reduce the areas targeted by inundation and being satisfied with the areas that can be sustainable and maintain the current status of the rest of the regions as an emerging ecosystem characterized by lands that are inundated every few years. Accordingly, steps must be urged to develop plans and programs to maintain the sustainability of these emerging ecosystems within the frameworks of climate change and the conditions of scarcity of water resources and water and air pollution to ensure that they are not lost in the future.}, }
@article {pmid38090707, year = {2023}, author = {Gebhardt, N and Schwaab, L and Friederich, HC and Nikendei, C}, title = {The relationship of climate change awareness and psychopathology in persons with pre-existing mental health diagnoses.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychiatry}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1274523}, pmid = {38090707}, issn = {1664-0640}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Persons with pre-existing mental health diagnoses are known to be more vulnerable to the consequences of climate change, such as extreme weather events and rising temperatures. However, it remains unclear if this holds true for adverse effects of climate change awareness, too.<br><br>METHODS: N&#x2009;=&#x2009;89 patients of a psychosomatic outpatient clinic were assessed with well-established mental health questionnaires (PHQ-9 for depressive, GAD-7 for anxious, and PTSS-10 for post-traumatic symptoms) in their original form and in a modified version (PHQ-9-C, GAD-7-C, PTSS-10-C) specifically asking for patients' symptom load regarding climate change awareness, and instruments evaluating personality factors (OPD-SF, SOC, RQ).<br><br>RESULTS: 21% of the sample reported at least mild symptoms of anxiety regarding climate change awareness, and 11% mild symptoms of depression due to climate change awareness. General anxiety (GAD-7) scores significantly predicted if people reported any psychological symptoms due to climate change awareness. In multiple regression analyses, higher scores of clinical symptoms of depression, anxiety or post-traumatic stress predicted higher scores of depressive, anxious or post-traumatic symptoms regarding climate change awareness, and higher scores of psychological symptoms regarding climate change awareness predicted each other. Younger participants reported significantly more traumatic symptoms regarding climate change awareness.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The reported mental health impairments regarding climate change awareness in persons with pre-existing mental health diagnoses indicate an increased vulnerability. Hereby, depressive mental health burden seems to induce a predominantly depressive processing of climate change resulting in climate chance related depression. This holds also true for anxious and traumatic symptoms, and points toward biased attentional and memory processes and mood congruent processing.}, }
@article {pmid38089979, year = {2023}, author = {Malematja, E and Sebola, NA and Manyelo, TG and Kolobe, SD and Mabelebele, M}, title = {Copping out of novel feeds: HOW climate change pledgers and food summits overlooked insect protein.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {e22773}, pmid = {38089979}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The intention with this critical review is to appraise recent work done on insect proteins as animal feeds, and to discuss the possible factors which led to the ruling out of insect proteins by food and feed commissioners, as well as climate change pledgers. Of late, edible insect larvae have gained popularity as a promising protein source. On the basis of proximate analysis, insect species such as Tenebrio molitor, Musca domestica, Acheta domestica, Zophobas morio and Hermetia illucens have been reported to contain substantial amounts of protein, essential amino acids and minerals. Given these chemical properties, insects may be fruitfully utilized as a partial or sole protein source for monogastric rations. Although insect larvae hold immense potential as promising sustainable protein ingredients which are both ecologically and environmentally friendly, these unconventional feedstuffs are frequently overlooked and/or excluded from policies and legislation on feedstuff of animal origin, at local and international summits which pledge to develop sustainable food systems. Concerns about food insecurity, our expanding carbon footprint and deteriorating ecosystems, dictate that food and climate change summits bring to the mitigation table the concept of transitioning animal diets. A change must be effected from standard to sustainable diets, starting with a declaration on environmental impact and climate change concerns related to soybean cultivation and marine loss due to overfishing. The available literature on the chemical properties and environmental impact of fishmeal and soyabean meal production was scrutinized by accessing electronic databases and comparing these to insects' nutritional composition and the impact which insect rearing has on the environment. As the literature search results revealed, information on the specific laws dealing with insect proteins as feed ingredients is scant, while the existing laws vary greatly. This has implications for innovation, as well as the trade in insect protein at a global level.}, }
@article {pmid38089447, year = {2023}, author = {Joshi, R and Shrestha, TK and Mishra, B and Gautam, J and Maharjan, B and Gosai, KR and Maraseni, T and Neupane, B}, title = {Assessment of Carbon Sequestration in Private Forests across Two Different Physiographic Regions of Nepal: Implications for Conservation and Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {Scientifica}, volume = {2023}, number = {}, pages = {6599067}, pmid = {38089447}, issn = {2090-908X}, abstract = {Private forests offer diverse ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation, which are crucial for Nepal. However, there is a notable absence of comprehensive research on these services. Assessing carbon sequestration in private forests can have economic advantages for forest owners by promoting resource conservation and contributing to greenhouse gas reduction. This study aims to estimate and compare carbon stocks in private forests located in two distinct physiographic regions of Nepal while also identifying the factors influencing these carbon stocks. The analysis focuses on 16 private forests (with 0.1 to 0.5 hectares) each from Chitwan district (Terai region) and Kavrepalanchok district (Hilly region). Field data collection involved direct measurements of tree and sapling diameter at breast height (DBH), as well as height and class of trees and poles, utilizing a total enumeration method. These collected values were utilized to calculate aboveground biomass (AGTB), aboveground sapling biomass (AGSB), belowground biomass, and carbon stock. Private forests of Terai region were dominated by Shorea borneensis, Tectona grandis, and Dalbergia sissoo, whereas the Hilly region was dominated by Pinus patula, Alnus nepalensis, Schima wallichii, and Quercus leucotrichophora. The aboveground biomass carbon in the Terai region's private forests was estimated to be 83.53 t·ha[-1], while in the Hilly region, it was 37.32 t·ha[-1]. The belowground biomass carbon in the Terai region's private forests was found to be 21.72 t·ha[-1], compared to 9.70 t·ha[-1] in the Hilly region. Consequently, the estimated total carbon stock in the Terai and Hilly regions' private forests was 105.25 t·ha[-1] (386.26 t·ha[-1] CO2-eq) and 47.02 t·ha[-1] (172.57 t·ha[-1] CO2-eq), respectively. Carbon sequestration in the Terai region's private forests was discovered to be 2.24 times higher than that in the Hilly region. These findings underscore the significant potential of private forests, which can generate economic benefits through carbon trading and leverage mechanisms such as REDD+/CDM to promote sustainable conservation practices.}, }
@article {pmid38086539, year = {2023}, author = {Qian, Z and Beatrici, E and Trinh, QD and Kibel, AS and Loeb, S and Iyer, HS and Cole, AP}, title = {Climate change perception and its association with cancer screening intent.}, journal = {Journal of the National Cancer Institute}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jnci/djad237}, pmid = {38086539}, issn = {1460-2105}, support = {//Bruce A. Beal and Robert L. Beal/ ; //Brigham and Women's Hospital Department of Surgery/ ; 23YOUN25//Prostate Cancer Foundation and American Cancer Society/ ; PC220342//Department of Defense Congressionally Directed Medical Research/ ; }, abstract = {As the climate crisis deepens, its adverse effects on human health are becoming evident, including impacts on cancer pathogenesis and treatment. This study explored the link between individuals' awareness of the health impacts of climate change and interest in cancer screening. Using the 2021 Health Information National Trends Survey, our study demonstrated a statistically significant association between recognition of climate change as a personal health threat and interest in cancer screening. Although the study's retrospective nature and self-reported data pose some limitations, these findings signal a promising avenue for future research on the intersection of climate and cancer risk. This research supports the development of public health interventions that incorporate components of environmental health literacy alongside cancer screening efforts.}, }
@article {pmid38086278, year = {2023}, author = {Lykins, AD and Bonich, M and Sundaraja, C and Cosh, S}, title = {Climate change anxiety positively predicts antenatal distress in expectant female parents.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {101}, number = {}, pages = {102801}, doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2023.102801}, pmid = {38086278}, issn = {1873-7897}, abstract = {Clinical and subclinical levels of anxiety and depression are common experiences during pregnancy for expectant women; however, despite rising awareness of significant climate change anxiety around the world, the extent to which this particular type of anxiety may be contributing to overall antenatal psychological distress is currently unknown. Furthermore, the content of concerns that expectant women may have for their existing or future children remains unexplored. To address this gap in knowledge, 103 expectant Australian women completed standardised assessments of antenatal worry and depression, climate change anxiety, and perceived distance to climate change, and responded to several open-ended questions on concerns they had for their children. Results indicated that climate change anxiety accounted for significant percentages of variance in both antenatal worry and depression scores and, unexpectedly, neither child number nor perceived distance to climate change moderated these relationships. Content analysis of qualitative data highlighted the significant health-related anxieties for participants' children related to climate change (e.g., disease, exposure to extreme weather events, food/water insecurity). Given the escalating nature of climate change, further investigation of this relatively new stressor contributing to the experience of anxiety and distress, particularly in uniquely vulnerable groups such as expectant women, is urgently needed.}, }
@article {pmid38085704, year = {2023}, author = {Barneche, DR and Morais, RA}, title = {Towards detailed predictions of coastal ecosystem function under climate change.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {21}, number = {12}, pages = {e3002430}, pmid = {38085704}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {The complex ways in which ongoing warming will restructure ecosystems remains poorly understood. A new simulation study in PLOS Biology suggests that expected changes in food resources for marine consumers will outpace the direct, pervasive effects of predicted +2.5°C warming.}, }
@article {pmid38085582, year = {2023}, author = {Fuller, L}, title = {How Should Organizations and Clinicians Help Marginalized Patients Manage Loneliness as a Harm of Climate Change?.}, journal = {AMA journal of ethics}, volume = {25}, number = {11}, pages = {E802-808}, doi = {10.1001/amajethics.2023.802}, pmid = {38085582}, issn = {2376-6980}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Loneliness ; *Disasters/prevention &amp; control ; Organizations ; }, abstract = {This commentary on a case outlines 4 interventions that would help to prevent or mitigate illness and attendant loneliness affecting vulnerable patients during extreme weather events. It suggests that an individualistic approach to the collective problem of climate change is inadequate and that health professionals and health organizations should (1) transition from reactive climate change strategies to integrating disaster preparedness into daily operations and (2) advocate for changes in society that address harms and begin to mitigate the negative effects of climate change, especially on marginalized people.}, }
@article {pmid38085471, year = {2023}, author = {Dong, J and Yu, S}, title = {Exploring role of green financing in blockchain markets for climate change mitigation in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38085471}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {This study explores the potential of green finance as a strategic method to addressing climate change mitigation in China's blockchain industry. This research methodically analyzes a large dataset collected from many sources across the period between 1999 and 2020. Using a mixed approach of quantitative research and qualitative case studies, this study delves into the tangled web of relationships between alternative finance sources for green initiatives and the use of blockchain technology to promote more environmentally friendly business practices. The results provide light on how green finance and blockchain technologies might work together to boost China's climate change mitigation efforts, revealing fresh insights into the possible synergies and obstacles that erupt from this intersection. In response to the worsening climate problem, there is a pressing need for unconventional methods of financing that can lead holistic sustainable growth. Concurrently, blockchain technology's disruptive potential reverberates across numerous sectors. However, research on blockchain's potential for combating climate change, especially in conjunction with green funding systems, is still in its infancy. Intrinsic interest has motivated this study, which provides a new viewpoint on paths that might transform climate change mitigation in China by mapping the unexplored territory at the intersection of the green finance and blockchain sectors. This research hopes that by examining this interface, it will shed light on the hidden opportunities presented by the combination of green financing and blockchain innovation, allowing for more well-informed and effective decisions to be made in support of environmentally sustainable futures.}, }
@article {pmid38084418, year = {2023}, author = {Mahase, E}, title = {Malaria: Climate change poses "substantial risk to progress," WHO warns.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {383}, number = {}, pages = {2848}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.p2848}, pmid = {38084418}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Malaria/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Temperature ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid38081920, year = {2023}, author = {Porras, R and Miguel-Rojas, C and Lorite, IJ and Pérez-de-Luque, A and Sillero, JC}, title = {Characterization of durum wheat resistance against leaf rust under climate change conditions of increasing temperature and [CO2].}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {22001}, pmid = {38081920}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Triticum/genetics ; Chromosome Mapping ; Temperature ; Carbon Dioxide ; Disease Resistance ; Climate Change ; Plant Diseases/microbiology ; *Basidiomycota ; }, abstract = {Durum wheat cultivation in Mediterranean regions is threatened by abiotic factors, mainly related to the effects of climate change, and biotic factors such as the leaf rust disease. This situation requires an in-depth knowledge of how predicted elevated temperatures and [CO2] will affect durum wheat-leaf rust interactions. Therefore, we have characterised the response of one susceptible and two resistant durum wheat accessions against leaf rust under different environments in greenhouse assays, simulating the predicted conditions of elevated temperature and [CO2] in the far future period of 2070-2099 for the wheat growing region of Cordoba, Spain. Interestingly, high temperature alone or in combination with high [CO2] did not alter the external appearance of the rust lesions. However, through macro and microscopic evaluation, we found some host physiological and molecular responses to infection that would quantitatively reduce not only pustule formation and subsequent infection cycles of this pathogen, but also the host photosynthetic area under these predicted weather conditions, mainly expressed in the susceptible accession. Moreover, our results suggest that durum wheat responses to infection are mainly driven by temperature, being considered the most hampering abiotic stress. In contrast, leaf rust infection was greatly reduced when these weather conditions were also conducted during the inoculation process, resembling the effects of possible heat waves not only in disease development, but also in fungal germination and penetration success. Considering this lack of knowledge in plant-pathogen interactions combined with abiotic stresses, the present study is, to the best of our knowledge, the first to include the effects of the expected diurnal variation of maximum temperature and continuous elevated [CO2] in the durum wheat-leaf rust pathosystem.}, }
@article {pmid38081831, year = {2023}, author = {Gibb, R and Colón-González, FJ and Lan, PT and Huong, PT and Nam, VS and Duoc, VT and Hung, DT and Dong, NT and Chien, VC and Trang, LTT and Kien Quoc, D and Hoa, TM and Tai, NH and Hang, TT and Tsarouchi, G and Ainscoe, E and Harpham, Q and Hofmann, B and Lumbroso, D and Brady, OJ and Lowe, R}, title = {Interactions between climate change, urban infrastructure and mobility are driving dengue emergence in Vietnam.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {8179}, pmid = {38081831}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Vietnam/epidemiology ; Incidence ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Dengue is expanding globally, but how dengue emergence is shaped locally by interactions between climatic and socio-environmental factors is not well understood. Here, we investigate the drivers of dengue incidence and emergence in Vietnam, through analysing 23 years of district-level case data spanning a period of significant socioeconomic change (1998-2020). We show that urban infrastructure factors (sanitation, water supply, long-term urban growth) predict local spatial patterns of dengue incidence, while human mobility is a more influential driver in subtropical northern regions than the endemic south. Temperature is the dominant factor shaping dengue's distribution and dynamics, and using long-term reanalysis temperature data we show that warming since 1950 has expanded transmission risk throughout Vietnam, and most strongly in current dengue emergence hotspots (e.g., southern central regions, Ha Noi). In contrast, effects of hydrometeorology are complex, multi-scalar and dependent on local context: risk increases under either short-term precipitation excess or long-term drought, but improvements in water supply mitigate drought-associated risks except under extreme conditions. Our findings challenge the assumption that dengue is an urban disease, instead suggesting that incidence peaks in transitional landscapes with intermediate infrastructure provision, and provide evidence that interactions between recent climate change and mobility are contributing to dengue's expansion throughout Vietnam.}, }
@article {pmid38079442, year = {2023}, author = {Audzijonyte, A and Delius, GW and Stuart-Smith, RD and Novaglio, C and Edgar, GJ and Barrett, NS and Blanchard, JL}, title = {Changes in sea floor productivity are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change in temperate coastal ecosystems according to a new size-based model.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {21}, number = {12}, pages = {e3002392}, pmid = {38079442}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Food Chain ; Biomass ; Oceans and Seas ; Fishes/physiology ; }, abstract = {The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems but often are considered in isolation, leaving our understanding of interactions between these drivers of ecosystem change relatively poor. This is particularly true for shallow coastal ecosystems, which are fuelled by a combination of distinct pelagic and benthic energy pathways that may respond to climate change in fundamentally distinct ways. The fish production supported by these systems is likely to be impacted by climate change differently to those of offshore and shelf ecosystems, which have relatively simpler food webs and mostly lack benthic primary production sources. We developed a novel, multispecies size spectrum model for shallow coastal reefs, specifically designed to simulate potential interactive outcomes of changing benthic and pelagic energy inputs and temperatures and calculate the relative importance of these variables for the fish community. Our model, calibrated using field data from an extensive temperate reef monitoring program, predicts that changes in resource levels will have much stronger impacts on fish biomass and yields than changes driven by physiological responses to temperature. Under increased plankton abundance, species in all fish trophic groups were predicted to increase in biomass, average size, and yields. By contrast, changes in benthic resources produced variable responses across fish trophic groups. Increased benthic resources led to increasing benthivorous and piscivorous fish biomasses, yields, and mean body sizes, but biomass decreases among herbivore and planktivore species. When resource changes were combined with warming seas, physiological responses generally decreased species' biomass and yields. Our results suggest that understanding changes in benthic production and its implications for coastal fisheries should be a priority research area. Our modified size spectrum model provides a framework for further study of benthic and pelagic energy pathways that can be easily adapted to other ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38078100, year = {2023}, author = {Nadeem, F and Liu, X}, title = {Editorial: Advanced insights into plant rhizosphere functionality from the perspective of declining soil fertility status in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1338575}, pmid = {38078100}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid38078072, year = {2023}, author = {Wu, A and Xiong, X and González-M, R and Li, R and Li, A and Liu, J and Tang, X and Zhang, Q}, title = {Climate change reshapes plant trait spectrum to explain biomass dynamics in an old-growth subtropical forest.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1260707}, pmid = {38078072}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change leads to novel species interactions and continues to reshuffle ecological communities, which significantly declines carbon accumulation rates in mature forests. Still, little is known about the potential influence of multiple global change factors on long-term biomass dynamics and functional trait combinations. We used temporal demographic records spanning 26 years and extensive databases of functional traits to assess how old-growth subtropical forest biomass dynamics respond to various climatic change scenarios (extreme drought, subsequent drought, warming, elevated CO2 concentrations, and windstorm). We found that the initial severe drought, subsequent drought and windstorm events increased biomass loss due to tree mortality, which exceeded the biomass gain produced by survivors and recruits, ultimately resulting in more negative net biomass balances. These drought and windstorm events caused massive biomass loss due to tree mortality that tended towards acquisition species with high hydraulic efficiency, whereas biomass growth from survivors and recruits tended to consist of acquisition species with high hydraulic safety. Compensatory growth in this natural forest provided good explanation for the increase in biomass growth after drought and windstorm events. Notably, these dominant-species transitions reduced carbon storage and residence time, forming a positive carbon-climate feedback loop. Our findings suggest that climate changes could alter functional strategies and cause shifts in new dominant species, which could greatly reduce ecological functions and carbon gains of old-growth subtropical forests.}, }
@article {pmid38077519, year = {2023}, author = {Lobo, JM and Mingarro, M and Godefroid, M and García-Roselló, E}, title = {Taking advantage of opportunistically collected historical occurrence data to detect responses to climate change: The case of temperature and Iberian dung beetles.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e10674}, pmid = {38077519}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {This study introduces a novel approach to leverage high-resolution historical climate data and opportunistically collected historical species occurrence data for detecting adaptive responses to global change. We applied this procedure to the temperature data and the most comprehensive Iberian dataset of dung beetle occurrences as an illustrative example. To understand how populations of different species are responding, we devised a procedure that compares the temporal trend of spatial and temperature variables at the locations and times of all the occurrence data collection (overall trend) with the specific temporal trends among the occurrences of each species. The prevalence of various species responses is linked to life history or taxonomic characteristics, enabling the identification of key factors influencing the propensity to experience different effects from climate change. Our findings suggest that nearly half of the Iberian dung beetle species may be adversely affected by temperature increases, with a geographic shift being the most common response. The results generated through the proposed methodology should be regarded as preliminary information, serving to formulate hypotheses about the diverse responses of species to climate change and aiding in the selection of candidate species capable of coping with challenges posed by changing temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid38077518, year = {2023}, author = {St Lawrence, S and Blumstein, DT and Martin, JGA}, title = {The timing of reproduction is responding plastically, not genetically, to climate change in yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer).}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e10780}, pmid = {38077518}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {With global climates changing rapidly, animals must adapt to new environmental conditions with altered weather and phenology. The key to adapting to these new conditions is adjusting the timing of reproduction to maximize fitness. Using a long-term dataset on a wild population of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), we investigated how the timing of reproduction changed with changing spring conditions over the past 50 years. Marmots are hibernators with a 4-month active season. It is thus crucial to reproduce early enough in the season to have time to prepare for hibernation, but not too early, as snow cover prevents access to food. Importantly, climate change in this area has, on average, increased spring temperatures by 5°C and decreased spring snowpack by 50 cm over the past 50 years. We evaluated how female marmots adjust the timing of their reproduction in response to changing conditions and estimated the importance of both microevolution and plasticity in the variation in this timing. We showed that, within a year, the timing of reproduction is not as tightly linked to the date a female emerges from hibernation as previously thought. We reported a positive effect of spring snowpack but not of spring temperature on the timing of reproduction. We found inter-individual variation in the timing of reproduction, including low heritability, but not in its response to changing spring conditions. There was directional selection for earlier reproduction since it increased the number and proportion of pups surviving their first winter. Taken together, the timing of marmot reproduction might evolve via natural selection; however, plastic changes will also be extremely important. Further, future studies on marmots should not operate under the assumption that females reproduce immediately following their emergence.}, }
@article {pmid38075469, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, K and Guo, Y and How, K and Acosta, A and Documet, D and Liang, C and Arul, D and Wood, S and Moon, K and Oliver, LS and Fajardo, EL and Kopyto, M and Shine, M and Neugebauer, KM}, title = {Five questions on how biochemistry can combat climate change.}, journal = {BBA advances}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {100111}, pmid = {38075469}, issn = {2667-1603}, abstract = {Global warming is caused by human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels, which produces high levels of greenhouse gasses. As a consequence, climate change impacts all organisms and the greater ecosystem through changing conditions from weather patterns to the temperature, pH and salt concentrations found in waterways and soil. These environmental changes fundamentally alter many parameters of the living world, from the kinetics of chemical reactions and cellular signaling pathways to the accumulation of unforeseen chemicals in the environment, the appearance and dispersal of new diseases, and the availability of traditional foods. Some organisms adapt to extremes, while others cannot. This article asks five questions that prompt us to consider the foundational knowledge that biochemistry can bring to the table as we meet the challenge of climate change. We approach climate change from the molecular point of view, identifying how cells and organisms - from microbes to plants and animals - respond to changing environmental conditions. To embrace the concept of "one health" for all life on the planet, we argue that we must leverage biochemistry, cell biology, molecular biophysics and genetics to fully understand the impact of climate change on the living world and to bring positive change.}, }
@article {pmid38075293, year = {2023}, author = {Moyo, E and Nhari, LG and Moyo, P and Murewanhema, G and Dzinamarira, T}, title = {Health effects of climate change in Africa: A call for an improved implementation of prevention measures.}, journal = {Eco-Environment &amp; Health (Online)}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {74-78}, pmid = {38075293}, issn = {2772-9850}, abstract = {The world's climate, particularly in Africa, has changed substantially during the past few decades, contributed by several human activities. Africa is one of the continents that is most vulnerable to climate change globally. Since the beginning of 2022, extreme weather events in Africa have affected about 19 million people and killed at least 4,000 individuals. Cyclones, floods, heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and famine were among the severe weather occurrences. Natural disasters and extreme weather events brought on by climate change may compromise access to clean water, sanitation systems, and healthcare facilities, making people more vulnerable to a number of illnesses. Floods and drought can lead to both communicable and non-communicable diseases. The African population is more likely to experience more mental health disorders than before because of natural disasters, which result in the loss of property and sometimes loss of lives more frequently. We, therefore, call for an improved implementation of strategies to prevent the health effects of climate change so that the health of the people in Africa can be maintained.}, }
@article {pmid38073255, year = {2023}, author = {Ten Buuren, AAA and Poolman, TB and Bongers, MY and Bullens, LM and Van Hanegem, N and Klerkx, WM and Timmermans, A and Zuithoff, NPA and Kwee, A}, title = {Patient preferences for disposable and reusable vaginal specula and their willingness to compromise in the era of climate change: A cross-sectional study.}, journal = {BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1471-0528.17733}, pmid = {38073255}, issn = {1471-0528}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To evaluate patient satisfaction on gynaecological examination with metal, plastic and biobased plastic vaginal specula, and to investigate whether patients are willing to compromise on comfort for a more sustainable healthcare system.<br><br>DESIGN: Cross-sectional study: population-based survey.<br><br>SETTING: Gynaecological outpatient clinics in five Dutch hospitals.<br><br>POPULATION: Patients during general gynaecology consultation hours.<br><br>METHODS: A survey containing two questions about patient demographics, four about comfort and five about sustainability and healthcare was distributed.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comfort score (scale 1-10).<br><br>SECONDARY OUTCOMES: (1) temperature, size and ease of insertion, (2) willingness to compromise for a more sustainable healthcare system.<br><br>RESULTS: In all, 196 patients completed the survey. Biobased plastic vaginal specula scored significantly higher on comfort than the metal ones (mean 8.03&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;1.65 versus 7.26&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;1.51 respectively; P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001). The biobased plastic vaginal speculum is significantly the most comfortable on temperature, whereas the metal speculum is the least comfortable (P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.007). Most patients are willing to compromise on comfort or are open to the reuse of disposables to contribute to a more sustainable healthcare. The majority of patients (77%) urge healthcare organisations to combat climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is a small but statistically significant difference in favour of a biobased plastic speculum regarding comfort score, although it might be questioned whether this is clinically relevant. Furthermore, patients are willing to compromise on comfort for a more sustainable healthcare, which should be a contributing factor in speculum selection.}, }
@article {pmid38072275, year = {2023}, author = {Lu, Q and Liu, H and Wei, L and Zhong, Y and Zhou, Z}, title = {Global prediction of gross primary productivity under future climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {169239}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169239}, pmid = {38072275}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial to land-atmosphere carbon exchanges, and changes in global GPP as well as its influencing factors have been well studied in recent years. However, identifying the spatio-temporal variations of global GPP under future climate changes is still a challenging issue. This study aims to develop data-driven approach for predicting the global GPP as well as its monthly and annual variations up to the year 2100 under changing climate. Specifically, Catboost was employed to examine the potential relationship between the GPP and environmental factors, with climate variables, CO2 concentration and terrain attributes being selected as environmental factors. The predicted monthly and annual GPP from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under future SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were analyzed. The results indicate that the global GPP is predicted to increase under the future climate change in the 21st century. The annual GPP is expected to be 115.122 Pg C, 116.537 Pg C, 117.626 Pg C, and 120.097 Pg C in 2100 under four future scenarios, and the predicted monthly GPP shows seasonal difference. Meanwhile, GPP tends to increase in the northern mid-high latitude regions and decrease in the equatorial regions. For the climate zones form Köppen-Geiger classification, the arid, cold, and polar zones present increased GPP, while GPP in the tropical zone will decrease in the future. Moreover, the high importance of climate variables in GPP prediction illustrates that the future climate change is the main driver of the global GPP dynamics. This study provides a basis for predicting how global GPP responds to future climate change in the coming decades, which contribute to understanding the interactions between vegetation and climate.}, }
@article {pmid38072274, year = {2023}, author = {Puigserver, D and Giménez, J and Gràcia, F and Granell, &#xc0; and Carmona, JM and Torrandell, A and Fornós, JJ}, title = {Effects of global and climate change on the freshwater-seawater interface movement in a Mediterranean karst aquifer of Mallorca Island.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {169246}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169246}, pmid = {38072274}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Karst aquifers are globally prized freshwater sources, posing a significant preservation challenge. These aquifers typically exhibit dual or even triple porosities, encompassing matrix, fractures-fissures and conduits, rendering them highly responsive to variations in chemical characteristics and hydraulic head. In coastal regions, these aquifers often possess extensive subsurface conduit networks intricately linked to the rock matrix, facilitating groundwater discharge into the sea. Therefore, they display acute sensitivity to seawater intrusion, swiftly reacting to changes in precipitation and pumping regimes. This makes them exceptionally vulnerable to short-term meteorological fluctuations and long-term climate change. Their high heterogeneity leads to uneven penetration of the freshwater-seawater interface, causing rapid seawater intrusion inland over significant distances. The Mediterranean region, characterized by water deficit and water stress, faces strong impacts from climate change, featuring a warming atmospheric trend exceeding the global average, along with diminished rainfall exacerbating water scarcity. Increasing water demands for agriculture, urban development, and the growing tourism industry, because of global change, are worsening water stress. Our primary research objectives were analyzing the environmental consequences of global and climate change on seawater intrusion in Mediterranean coastal karst aquifers, with a focus on the role of the double-flow model, thus contributing to the understanding of the processes involved. To achieve this, we selected a study region on Mallorca Island in the western Mediterranean, where a karst aquifer system discharges into the sea. We employed various study methods, notably hydrochemical techniques and multi-isotopic analysis, encompassing the examination of [2]H and [18]O isotopes in water, [87]Sr/[86]Sr ratio, Sr and B concentrations, and δ[11]B in water. A key finding is the rebound effect, wherein aquifers recontaminate due to solute molecular back-diffusion following cessation of extractions and the retreat of marine intrusion, providing insight into the impact of climate and global change on Mediterranean karst aquifers.}, }
@article {pmid38072271, year = {2023}, author = {Dao, PU and Heuzard, AG and Le, TXH and Zhao, J and Yin, R and Shang, C and Fan, C}, title = {The impacts of climate change on groundwater quality: A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {169241}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169241}, pmid = {38072271}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Groundwater has been known as the second largest freshwater storage in the world, following surface water. Over the years, groundwater has already been under overwhelming pressure to satisfy human needs for artificial activities around the world. Meanwhile, the most noticeable footprint of human activities is the impact of climate change. Climate change has the potential to change the physical and chemical properties of groundwater, thereby affecting its ecological functions. This study summarizes existing research affiliated with the possible effects of a changing climate on the quality of groundwater, including changes in water availability, increased salinity and pollution from extreme weather events, and the potentiality of seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers. Previous works dealing with groundwater-induced responses to the climate system and climate impacts on groundwater quality through natural and anthropogenic processes have been reviewed. The climate-induced changes in groundwater quality including pH, dissolved oxygen level, salinity, and concentrations of organic and inorganic compounds were assessed. Some future research directions are proposed, including exploring the potential changes in the occurrences and fate of micropollutants in groundwater, examining the relationship between the increase of microcystin in groundwater and climate change, studying the changes in the stability of metals and metal complexation, and completing studies across different regional climate regions.}, }
@article {pmid38072249, year = {2023}, author = {Popa, A and van der Maaten, E and Popa, I and van der Maaten-Theunissen, M}, title = {Early warning signals indicate climate change-induced stress in Norway spruce in the Eastern Carpathians.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {169167}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169167}, pmid = {38072249}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is affecting forest ecosystems globally, in particular through warming as well as increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) is one of the most important coniferous tree species in Europe. In recent extremely dry years in Central Europe, spruce suffered and large dieback has been observed. In parts of Eastern Europe, however, no large-scale decline in spruce has been reported so far, though anticipated changes in climate pose the question how the future of these forests may look like. To assess the current state of spruce forests in Eastern Europe, we established a tree-ring network consisting of 157 Norway spruce chronologies (from >3000 trees) of different ages distributed along elevational transects in the Eastern Carpathians, Romania. We evaluated early warning signals of climate change-induced stress, i.e. (1) growth decline, (2) increased sensitivity of tree growth (assessed over the statistics first-order autocorrelation and standard deviation), and (3) increased growth synchrony. A pronounced growth decline was observed over the last two decades, which was strongest in younger stands and at lower elevations. However, growth sensitivity and synchrony did not show consistent patterns, suggesting that forest decline may not be immediately imminent. Overall, our findings highlight an increased vulnerability of spruce in the Eastern Carpathians. With ongoing climate change, spruce dieback may be expected in this part of Europe as well.}, }
@article {pmid38070552, year = {2023}, author = {He, L and Guo, J and Yang, W and Jiang, Q and Li, X and Chen, S and Zhang, M and Li, D}, title = {Changes in vegetation in China's drylands are closely related to afforestation compared with climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {169121}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169121}, pmid = {38070552}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The response of vegetation to climate change and human activities has attracted considerable attention. However, quantitative studies on the effects of climate change and human activities on dryland vegetation in different seasons remain unclear. This study investigated the impacts of precipitation, temperature, soil water storage (SWS) (top [0-7 cm], shallow [7-28 cm], and middle [28-100 cm] layers), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and afforestation on vegetation as well as their relative contribution rates during the rainy season ([RS], June to September), dry season ([DS], November to April), transition season ([TS], May and October), and all year period (AY) in China's drylands from 2001 to 2020 using the first-difference method. Areas with precipitation and SWS showing significant positive correlation with dryland vegetation (p < 0.05) were found to be larger in RS than in DS and TS, and the positive effect of SWS increased with soil depth in the 0-28 cm interval. Increasing VPD induced a significant negative effect on vgetation during RS but it was not predominant in DS and TS. Afforestation showed an extremely significant positive correlated with dryland vegetation across >60 % of China's dryland areas (p < 0.01), but this improvement was found to be limited to regions with the highest afforestation area. Moreover, dryland vegetation dynamics were driven by afforestation in all seasons, with contribution rates of 64.23 %-71.46 %. The effects of SWS and VPD on vegetation driven by precipitation and temperature exceeded the direct effects of precipitation and temperature. Among climatic factors, VPD showed a major regulating effect on dryland vegetation at the top and shallow soil layers in almost all seasons, whereas the relative contribution rate of SWS increased with soil layer. The findings can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable development and protection of drylands under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid38069512, year = {2023}, author = {Tahkol, D and Öztürk Haney, M}, title = {Determinants of Turkish nursing students' attitudes towards sustainable development and knowledge of climate change: A descriptive and correlational study.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13270}, pmid = {38069512}, issn = {1525-1446}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Nurses are in a unique position to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, and to prevent and intervene in climate change. Determining nursing students' levels of attitudes and knowledge on this subject is important in determining the content of nursing education programs.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To determine the nursing students' attitudes towards sustainable development and their knowledge of climate change, and to identify determinants associated with these parameters.<br><br>DESIGN: A descriptive and correlational design was used.<br><br>SETTINGS: National Student Nurses' Association in Turkey.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: The sample of study consisted of 481 nursing students who were members of the National Student Nurses' Association.<br><br>METHODS: Data were collected online with the descriptive characteristics' questionnaire, the Attitudes Towards Sustainable Development Scale, and the Climate Change Knowledge Test. We used Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis test, and Spearman correlation analysis to analyze the data obtained from the scales.<br><br>RESULTS: The participants' mean sustainable development attitude score was 82.61&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;12.69 and mean climate change knowledge score was 6.47&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;1.44. There was a relationship between the sustainable development attitude and the variables such as gender, grade, warning people around them to be sensitive about environmental pollution, following the news about environmental problems, taking precautions about sustainable development and climate change in daily life, and receiving education about sustainable development and climate change in the nursing education. There was a relationship between climate change knowledge and the variables such as gender, grade, membership in an environmental organization, method of keeping up with environmental issues, and receiving education on sustainable development and climate change in nursing education.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Although the students displayed favorable attitudes towards sustainable development at a good level, their knowledge of climate change was not adequate. Thus, we recommend that sustainable development and climate change issues should be integrated into nursing education curricula to improve students' attitudes towards and knowledge and awareness of sustainable development and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38068700, year = {2023}, author = {Lu, Y and Zhang, B and Zhang, M and Jie, M and Guo, S and Wang, Y}, title = {Relict Plants Are Better Able to Adapt to Climate Change: Evidence from Desert Shrub Communities.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {38068700}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {NO: 31901170; NO: 32260279//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; NO:2022ZY0137//the Central Guidance for Local Science and Technology Development Projects/ ; NO:2019MS03082//the Inner Mongolia Natural Science Foundation/ ; NO:BS201941; NO:YHX202108//the Inner Mongolia University of Technology Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Shrubs are the main dominant plants in arid desert systems and play an important role in maintaining the biodiversity, ecosystem services and stability of desert ecosystems. Studies have shown that the survival of a large number of shrub species in desert areas under the influence of climate change is significantly threatened, with different species showing different response strategies. To test the tolerance of different shrub species to climate change, this study selected 10 dominant shrub species (ancient relict shrub species and regional endemic shrub species) in the Alashan desert area as the research object. Based on a field survey of species distribution, a species distribution model was developed to simulate the suitable distribution area of shrub species under current conditions and under future climate change scenarios. The distribution changes of ancient relict and regional endemic shrub species under the climate change scenarios were tested, and the tolerance of the two types of shrub to climate change was analyzed. The results showed that under different climate change scenarios, except for Ammopiptanthus mongolicus, the total suitable area of four out of the five relict plants was relatively stable, the potential distribution area of Tetraena mongolica increased, and the future distribution pattern was basically consistent with the current distribution. However, the suitable area of typical desert plants was unstable under different climate change scenarios. Except for Kalidium foliatum, the suitable distribution areas of four out of the five shrubs showed different degrees of reduction, and the distribution location showed significant migration. Based on the research results, climate change will lead to the reduction and displacement of the distribution area of typical desert shrubs, while relict shrubs will be less affected by climate change. This is because, compared to desert species, relict plants have a longer evolutionary history and have developed a wider range of adaptations after experiencing dramatic environmental changes. This study provides a scientific basis for actively responding to the impacts of climate change on desert ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid38066269, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, ZA and Chen, Y and Liu, Z and Wei, X and Zheng, X}, title = {Dynamic simulation of land use change and habitat quality assessment under climate change scenarios in Nanchang, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38066269}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {Investigating habitat quality under different climate scenarios holds significant importance for sustainable land resource management and ecological conservation. In this study, considering Nanchang as a case study, a coupled patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) and system dynamics (SD) model was employed in the simulation and prediction of land usage under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) and representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To assess the habitat quality in Nanchang from 2000 to 2020 and in 2030 under three diverse climate scenarios, we used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to analyze spatial and temporal changes. The findings indicate that the regions of forest land, cultivated land, and grassland in Nanchang City will dramatically decrease by 2030, the construction land will rapidly expand, and the fluctuations in the unutilized land and water area will be minimal. Additionally, the habitat quality declined from 2000 to 2020, and its spatial distributions changed. Zones having a high overall habitat quality were distributed in the mountains, hills, and lake areas, whereas those with relatively low quality were found in cultivated and urban areas. Under three climate scenarios, in 2030, the habitat quality index for Nanchang City will show a decreasing trend, mainly owing to areas with an index of 0.3-0.5 transitioning to <0.3. Considering each scenario, the degree of habitat degradation increased in the order SSP585>SSP245>SSP119. The findings of this study will inform high-quality development and biodiversity conservation in Nanchang City.}, }
@article {pmid38066061, year = {2023}, author = {Kim, J and Porter, J and Kearns, EJ}, title = {Exposure of the US population to extreme precipitation risk has increased due to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {21782}, pmid = {38066061}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the early twenty-first century have already proven to be increasing at a rate more quickly than previously anticipated. Currently, the biggest consequence of the change in extreme precipitation is the lack of a climate-adjusted national standard taking into account these recent increases that could be used to prevent life and property loss from catastrophic precipitation-driven floods. Here, we address how severe the change in extreme precipitation compares against the current national standard for precipitation climatology (NOAA Atlas 14) and how much of the population is affected by the underestimation of this risk in the contiguous United States (CONUS). As a result, extreme precipitation in the early twenty-first century has outpaced our current national standard in half of CONUS, and the heavy precipitation events experienced recently are quickly becoming a "new normal", which will increase in severity and frequency in a continually changing climate. Over three-quarters of the U.S. population will likely experience this new normal occurrence of extreme precipitation. As much as one-third of the population is expected to experience the current definition of a 1-in-100-year storm as often as three times in their lifetime. Additionally, the current precipitation standards for designing transportation infrastructure and urban stormwater drainage systems that are built upon Atlas 14 may be insufficient to protect the public's safety and personal/community property from severe flooding. Areas where flood risk is mitigated by operating hydraulic and adaptation structures urgently need to assess the impact of the increased-hourly extreme precipitation and reevaluate their applicable operation rules. Understanding and predicting patterns and the likelihood of short-duration heavy precipitation would be beneficial in preparing for severe precipitation-driven disasters, such as flash floods and landslides, which would happen more frequently in a changing climate. Following the results of this analysis, accelerating the development and dissemination of the next generation of the national standard that has been climatically adjusted to adapt to the new normal is strongly recommended.}, }
@article {pmid38064785, year = {2024}, author = {Yang, P and Zhang, L and Lin, Y and Yang, H and Lai, DYF and Tong, C and Zhang, Y and Tan, L and Zhao, G and Tang, KW}, title = {Significant inter-annual fluctuation in CO2 and CH4 diffusive fluxes from subtropical aquaculture ponds: Implications for climate change and carbon emission evaluations.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {249}, number = {}, pages = {120943}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.120943}, pmid = {38064785}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide ; *Ponds ; Carbon ; Climate Change ; Methane/analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; Aquaculture ; China ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {Aquaculture ponds are potential hotspots for carbon cycling and emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like CO2 and CH4, but they are often poorly assessed in the global GHG budget. This study determined the temporal variations of CO2 and CH4 concentrations and diffusive fluxes and their environmental drivers in coastal aquaculture ponds in southeastern China over a five-year period (2017-2021). The findings indicated that CH4 flux from aquaculture ponds fluctuated markedly year-to-year, and CO2 flux varied between positive and negative between years. The coefficient of inter-annual variation of CO2 and CH4 diffusive fluxes was 168% and 127%, respectively, highlighting the importance of long-term observations to improve GHG assessment from aquaculture ponds. In addition to chlorophyll-a and dissolved oxygen as the common environmental drivers, CO2 was further regulated by total dissolved phosphorus and CH4 by dissolved organic carbon. Feed conversion ratio correlated positively with both CO2 and CH4 concentrations and fluxes, showing that unconsumed feeds fueled microbial GHG production. A linear regression based on binned (averaged) monthly CO2 diffusive flux data, calculated from CO2 concentrations, can be used to estimate CH4 diffusive flux with a fair degree of confidence (r[2] = 0.66; p < 0.001). This algorithm provides a simple and practical way to assess the total carbon diffusive flux from aquaculture ponds. Overall, this study provides new insights into mitigating the carbon footprint of aquaculture production and assessing the impact of aquaculture ponds on the regional and global scales.}, }
@article {pmid38064385, year = {2023}, author = {Dal, T and Ramli, I and Garaizar, J}, title = {Effect of climate change on nature and human health with a special focus on infectious diseases in the Mediterranean region.}, journal = {Journal of infection in developing countries}, volume = {17}, number = {11}, pages = {1501-1510}, doi = {10.3855/jidc.17995}, pmid = {38064385}, issn = {1972-2680}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Public Health ; Mediterranean Region/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: In this short review, the effect of climate change on nature and human health with a special focus on infectious diseases in the Mediterranean region is discussed. This research is a part of the Mediterranean Convention of Human Rights project, which is an organizational work on human rights issues that was established in cooperation with civil society and the national authorities of the Mediterranean Region.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: Previously published data were collected by retrieving published literature from PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science using "climate change", "the Mediterranean region", "infections in Mediterranean Region", "infectious diseases", "biodiversity", and "the Mediterranean Sea" as keywords. The collected data were then evaluated and reviewed. The recommendations and guidelines were analysed by the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The Mediterranean region presents a typical example witnessing a dramatic change in climate events and their adverse impact on biodiversity, ecosystems and public health are multiple. This negative impact is in part due to the geographical particularities, and sociocultural and geopolitical conflicts that are progressively worsening the burden of climate change. While most of these changes cannot be totally avoided, many of the health risks related to climate change could be monitored. This can be done by establishing health systems with policies to reduce and prevent the risks of infectious diseases and to recover and support the affected areas, which may identify priority and management of high-risk events.}, }
@article {pmid38063554, year = {2023}, author = {Munala, L and Allen, EM and Frederick, AJ and Ngũnjiri, A}, title = {Climate Change, Extreme Weather, and Intimate Partner Violence in East African Agrarian-Based Economies.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {38063554}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Extreme Weather ; *Intimate Partner Violence ; Risk Factors ; Africa, Eastern ; }, abstract = {Severe weather events can be a catalyst for intimate partner violence, particularly in agricultural settings. This research explores the association between weather and violence in parts of East Africa that rely on subsistence farming. We used IPUMS-DHS data from Uganda in 2006, Zimbabwe in 2010, and Mozambique in 2011 for intimate partner violence frequency and EM-DAT data to identify weather events by region in the year of and year prior to IPUMS-DHS data collection. This work is grounded in a conceptual framework that illustrates the mechanisms through which violence increases. We used logistic regression to estimate the odds of reporting violence in regions with severe weather events. The odds of reporting violence were 25% greater in regions with severe weather compared to regions without in Uganda (OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.11-1.41), 38% greater in Zimbabwe (OR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.13-1.70), and 91% greater in Mozambique (OR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.64-2.23). Our results add to the growing body of evidence showing that extreme weather can increase women's and girls' vulnerability to violence. Moreover, this analysis demonstrates that climate justice and intimate partner violence must be addressed together.}, }
@article {pmid38062648, year = {2023}, author = {Landis, WG and Mitchell, CJ and Hader, JD and Nathan, R and Sharpe, EE}, title = {Incorporation of climate change into a multiple stressor risk assessment for the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population in the Yakima River, Washington USA.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4878}, pmid = {38062648}, issn = {1551-3793}, abstract = {One of the outcomes of the 2021 Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Pellston Workshop on incorporating climate change predictions into ecological risk assessments (Stahl et al. forthcoming) was the key question of how to integrate ecological risk assessments that focus on contaminants with the environmental alterations from climate projections. This article summarizes the results of integrating selected direct and indirect effects of climate change into an existing Bayesian network previously used for ecological risk assessment. The existing Bayesian network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) integrated the effects of two organophosphate pesticides (malathion and diazinon), water temperature, and dissolved oxygen levels on the Chinook salmon population in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA. The endpoint was defined as the entity, Yakima River metapopulation, and the attribute was defined as no decline to a subpopulation or the overall metapopulation. In this manner we addressed the management goal of no net loss of Chinook salmon, an iconic and protected species. Climate change-induced changes in water quality parameters (temperature and dissolved oxygen levels) using model based on projected climatic conditions in the 2050s and 2080s by the use of a probabilistic model. Pesticide concentrations in the original model were modified assuming different scenarios of pest control strategies in the future, as climate change may alter pest numbers and species. Our results predict that future direct and indirect changes to the Yakima River Basin result in a higher probability that the salmon population will continue to not meet the management goal of no net loss. As indicated by the sensitivity analysis, the key driver in salmon population risk was found to be current and future changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen, with pesticide concentrations not as important.}, }
@article {pmid38061655, year = {2023}, author = {Delandmeter, M and de Faccio Carvalho, PC and Bremm, C and Dos Santos Cargnelutti, C and Bindelle, J and Dumont, B}, title = {Integrated crop and livestock systems increase both climate change adaptation and mitigation capacities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {169061}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169061}, pmid = {38061655}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Integrated crop-livestock systems (ICLS) are proposed as key solutions to the various challenges posed to present-day agriculture which must guarantee high and stable yields while minimizing its impacts on the environment. Yet the complex relationships between crops, grasslands and animals on which they rely demand careful and precise management. In this study, from a 18-year ICLS field experiment in Brazil, that consists in annual no-till soybean-pastures grazed by beef cattle, we investigated the impacts of contrasted pastures grazing intensities (defined by sward heights of 10, 20, 30 and 40 cm, plus an ungrazed treatment) on the agroecosystem productivity and soil organic carbon (SOC) under both historical and future (2040-2070, RCP8.5) climatic conditions. We used an innovative methodology to model the ICLS with the STICS soil-crop model, which was validated with field observations. Results showed that the total system production increased along with grazing intensity because of higher stocking rates and subsequent live weight gains. Moderate and light grazing intensities (30 and 40 cm sward heights) resulted in the largest increase in SOC over the 18-year period, with all ICLS treatments leading to greater SOC contents than the ungrazed treatment. When facing climate change under future conditions, all treatments increased in productivity due to the CO2 fertilization effect and the increases in organic amendments that result from the larger stocking rate allowed by the increased pasture carrying capacity. Moderate grazing resulted in the most significant enhancements in productivity and SOC levels. These improvements were accompanied by increased resistance to both moderate and extreme climatic events, benefiting herbage production and live weight gain. Globally, our results show that adding a trophic level (i.e. herbivores) into cropping systems, provided that their carrying capacities are respected, proved to increase their ability to withstand climate change and to contribute to its mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid38060640, year = {2023}, author = {Heilmayr, R and Dudney, J and Moore, FC}, title = {Drought sensitivity in mesic forests heightens their vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {382}, number = {6675}, pages = {1171-1177}, doi = {10.1126/science.adi1071}, pmid = {38060640}, issn = {1095-9203}, support = {1924378//National Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Forests ; Hot Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change is shifting the structure and function of global forests, underscoring the critical need to predict which forests are most vulnerable to a hotter and drier future. We analyzed 6.6 million tree rings from 122 species to assess trees' sensitivity to water and energy availability. We found that trees growing in wetter portions of their range exhibit the greatest drought sensitivity. To test how these patterns of drought sensitivity influence vulnerability to climate change, we predicted tree growth through 2100. Our results suggest that drought adaptations in arid regions will partially buffer trees against climate change. By contrast, trees growing in the wetter, hotter portions of their climatic range may experience unexpectedly large adverse impacts under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38060595, year = {2023}, author = {Rogers, MC and Heintz, RA and Vollenweider, JJ and Sreenivasan, A and Miller, KB}, title = {Climate change-informed dietary modeling in Pacific cod: Experimentally-derived effects of temperature and dietary quality on carbon and nitrogen stable isotope trophic discrimination factors.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {12}, pages = {e0295564}, pmid = {38060595}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Carbon/metabolism ; Nitrogen Isotopes/analysis ; *Nitrogen/metabolism ; Temperature ; Climate Change ; Carbon Isotopes/analysis ; Diet ; Dietary Proteins ; Water ; Lipids ; }, abstract = {Stable isotope analysis is a powerful tool for dietary modeling and trophic ecology research. A crucial piece of information for isotopic dietary modeling is the accurate estimation of trophic discrimination factors (TDFs), or the isotopic offset between a consumer's tissue and its diet. In order to parameterize stable isotope dietary models for future climate scenarios, we investigated the effect of water temperature and dietary protein and lipid content on TDFs in juvenile Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus). Pacific cod are a commercially and ecologically important species, with stock numbers in the northeast Pacific recently having dropped by more than 70%. We tested four water temperatures (6, 8, 10, and 12°C) and two dietary regimens (low and high lipid content), representing a range of potential ocean temperature and prey quality scenarios, in order to determine carbon and nitrogen TDFs in juvenile Pacific cod. Additionally, we assessed dietary intake and proximate composition of the experimental fish in order to estimate consumption, assimilation, and retention of dietary nutrients. The results of this study suggest that dietary protein catabolism is a primary driver of nitrogen TDF variability in juvenile Pacific cod. Across all temperature treatments from 6 to 12°C, fish reared on the lower quality, lower lipid content diet had higher nitrogen TDFs. The mean TDFs for fish raised on the higher lipid, lower protein diet were +3.40 ‰ for nitrogen (Δ15N) and +0.36 ‰ for lipid-corrected carbon (Δ LC 13C). The mean TDFs for fish raised on the lower lipid, higher protein diet were +4.09 ‰ for nitrogen (Δ15N) and 0.00 ‰ for lipid-corrected carbon (Δ LC 13C). Lipid-corrected carbon isotope data showed that, regardless of temperature, fish consuming the lower lipid diet had essentially no trophic discrimination between diet and bulk tissues. We found no ecologically meaningful differences in TDFs due to water temperature across the 6°experimental range. The results of this experiment demonstrate that dietary quality, and more specifically the use of dietary protein for energetic needs, is a primary driver of trophic discrimination factors. The TDFs determined in this study can be applied to understanding trophic ecology in Pacific cod and closely related species under rapidly changing prey availability and ocean temperature conditions.}, }
@article {pmid38060061, year = {2023}, author = {Hereher, ME}, title = {Assessment of seasonal warming trends at the Nile Delta: a paradigm for human-induced climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {196}, number = {1}, pages = {20}, pmid = {38060061}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Seasons ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Satellite Imagery ; Geography ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Given its modern geographical and geomorphological characteristics, along with rapid socio-economic changes, the Nile Delta stands out as one of the world's most dynamic landscapes. The key drivers of the land use change in this region have been the reclamation of delta margins, changes in agricultural practices, and urban expansion. The present study aims to explore the variations in the seasonal daytime and nighttime trends of the land surface temperatures (LST) at this active agronomic system in response to the seasonal variations of vegetation cover as revealed by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during the past two decades. The data were exclusively acquired from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument for the period from January 2001 to December 2021, where geospatial and statistical analyses were accomplished to construct a LST/NDVI spatio-temporal pattern throughout the Nile Delta. Results revealed a robust negative and a significant relationship between the NDVI and the diurnal LST with high regression coefficients (R[2]) ranging from 0.78 to 0.97 (p value < 0.05). Maximal seasonal warming trends occurred during harvesting seasons (springs and falls), while the least warming was recorded during winters (the growing seasons). It was also observed that the nocturnal warming (0.72°C/decade) was almost as double as the corresponding value of the daytime trend (0.33°C/decade). The study recognized a seasonal climatic warming throughout the Nile Delta influenced by the human-induced land use change and agricultural practices.}, }
@article {pmid38058022, year = {2023}, author = {Schultz, R}, title = {Response to 'Thinking clearly about climate change and mental health'.}, journal = {Australasian psychiatry : bulletin of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {10398562231219942}, doi = {10.1177/10398562231219942}, pmid = {38058022}, issn = {1440-1665}, }
@article {pmid38057578, year = {2023}, author = {Chitre, SD and Crews, CM and Tessema, MT and Plėštytė-Būtienė, I and Coffee, M and Richardson, ET}, title = {The impact of anthropogenic climate change on pediatric viral diseases.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38057578}, issn = {1530-0447}, support = {K08 AI139361/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {The adverse effects of climate change on human health are unfolding in real time. Environmental fragmentation is amplifying spillover of viruses from wildlife to humans. Increasing temperatures are expanding mosquito and tick habitats, introducing vector-borne viruses into immunologically susceptible populations. More frequent flooding is spreading water-borne viral pathogens, while prolonged droughts reduce regional capacity to prevent and respond to disease outbreaks with adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene resources. Worsening air quality and altered transmission seasons due to an increasingly volatile climate may exacerbate the impacts of respiratory viruses. Furthermore, both extreme weather events and long-term climate variation are causing the destruction of health systems and large-scale migrations, reshaping health care delivery in the face of an evolving global burden of viral disease. Because of their immunological immaturity, differences in physiology (e.g., size), dependence on caregivers, and behavioral traits, children are particularly vulnerable to climate change. This investigation into the unique pediatric viral threats posed by an increasingly inhospitable world elucidates potential avenues of targeted programming and uncovers future research questions to effect equitable, actionable change. IMPACT: A review of the effects of climate change on viral threats to pediatric health, including zoonotic, vector-borne, water-borne, and respiratory viruses, as well as distal threats related to climate-induced migration and health systems. A unique focus on viruses offers a more in-depth look at the effect of climate change on vector competence, viral particle survival, co-morbidities, and host behavior. An examination of children as a particularly vulnerable population provokes programming tailored to their unique set of vulnerabilities and encourages reflection on equitable climate adaptation frameworks.}, }
@article {pmid38056666, year = {2023}, author = {Quang, NH and Viet, TQ and Thang, HN and Hieu, NTD}, title = {Long-term water level dynamics in the Red River basin in response to anthropogenic activities and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {168985}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168985}, pmid = {38056666}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding the regular variations in water levels and identifying the potential drivers under the combined pressures of anthropogenic activities and climate change can offer valuable insights into riverine management. In this study, we analyzed long-term daily observational data, including water levels and water discharge, spanning from the ~1950s to 2021 at seven gauging stations within the Red River basin. We investigated the spatiotemporal variation in mean water levels using standard analytical tools, including the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, rating curves, and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF). Specifically, we observed a notable and substantial decline in water levels downstream of the major tributaries, including Da, Red, and Lo Rivers, as well as at their confluence, starting at the end of 2008. Notably, a strong correlation between water levels and discharge is found, highlighting the pivotal role of discharge in influencing water levels. Surprisingly, relationships between water levels and climatic factors such as rainfall and air temperature proved less influential. This suggests that water levels are predominantly shaped by discharge and anthropogenic activities, rather than climate change. The study emphasized the substantial impact of human-induced activities, particularly dam operation and sand mining, on downstream water levels in the Red River basin. An intriguing finding revealed that upstream dynamics, particularly at the Hoa Binh dam, led to significant water level increases with the same discharge, attributed to channel deposition and reservoir water storage. The research's novelty is the comprehensive evaluation of long-term water level trends and its elucidation of the combined effects of anthropogenic activities and climate change, offering valuable insights for riverine management and emphasizing the influence of anthropogenic factors, notably dam regulation and sand mining, in driving shifts in water levels.}, }
@article {pmid38056641, year = {2023}, author = {Bommarito, C and Noè, S and Díaz-Morales, DM and Lukić, I and Hiebenthal, C and Rilov, G and Guy-Haim, T and Wahl, M}, title = {Co-occurrence of native and invasive macroalgae might be facilitated under global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {169087}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169087}, pmid = {38056641}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is driving compositional shifts in ecological communities directly by affecting species and indirectly through changes in species interactions. For example, competitive hierarchies can be inversed when competitive dominants are more susceptible to climate change. The brown seaweed Fucus vesiculosus is a foundation species in the Baltic Sea, experiencing novel interactions with the invasive red seaweed Gracilaria vermiculophylla, which is known for its high tolerance to environmental stress. We investigated the direct and interactive effects of warming and co-occurrence of the two algal species on their performance, by applying four climate change-relevant temperature scenarios: 1) cooling) 2 °C below ambient - representing past conditions), 2) ambient summer temperature (18 °C), 3) IPCC RCP2.6 warming scenario (1 °C above ambient), and 4) RCP8.5 warming (3 °C above ambient) for 30 days and two compositional levels (mono and co-cultured algae) in a fully-crossed design. The RCP8.5 warming scenario increased photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrients' uptake rates of mono- and co-cultured G. vermiculophylla while growth was reduced. An increase in photosynthesis and essential nutrients' uptake and, at the same time, a growth reduction might result from increasing stress and energy demand of G. vermiculophylla under warming. In contrast, the growth of mono-cultured F. vesiculosus significantly increased in the highest warming treatment (+3 °C). The cooling treatment (-2 °C) exerted a slight negative effect only on co-cultured F. vesiculosus photosynthesis, compared to the ambient treatment. Interestingly, at ambient and warming (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios) treatments, both F. vesiculosus and G. vermiculophylla appear to benefit from the presence of each other. Our results suggest that short exposure of F. vesiculosus to moderate or severe global warming scenarios may not directly affect or even slightly enhance its performance, while G. vermiculophylla net performance (growth) could be directly hampered by warming.}, }
@article {pmid38056289, year = {2024}, author = {Parker, LM and Scanes, E and O'Connor, WA and Dove, M and Elizur, A and Pörtner, HO and Ross, PM}, title = {Resilience against the impacts of climate change in an ecologically and economically significant native oyster.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {198}, number = {}, pages = {115788}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115788}, pmid = {38056289}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Seawater ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Climate Change ; *Resilience, Psychological ; *Ostreidae ; Seafood ; }, abstract = {Climate change is acidifying and warming our oceans, at an unprecedented rate posing a challenge for marine invertebrates vital across the globe for ecological services and food security. Here we show it is possible for resilience to climate change in an ecologically and economically significant oyster without detrimental effects to the energy budget. We exposed 24 pair-mated genetically distinct families of the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata to ocean acidification and warming for 4w and measured their resilience. Resilience was identified as the capacity to defend their acid-base balance without a loss of energy available for Scope for Growth (SFG). Of the 24 families, 13 were better able to defend their acid-base balance while eight had no loss of energy availability with a positive SFG. This study has found oyster families with reslience against climate change without a loss of SFG, is an essential mitigation strategy, in a critical mollusc.}, }
@article {pmid38055767, year = {2023}, author = {Alam, E and Hridoy, AE and Tusher, SMSH and Islam, ARMT and Islam, MK}, title = {Correction: Climate change in Bangladesh: Temperature and rainfall climatology of Bangladesh for 1949-2013 and its implication on rice yield.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {12}, pages = {e0295718}, pmid = {38055767}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0292668.].}, }
@article {pmid38055254, year = {2023}, author = {Semenza, JC and Ko, AI}, title = {Waterborne Diseases That Are Sensitive to Climate Variability and Climate Change.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {389}, number = {23}, pages = {2175-2187}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMra2300794}, pmid = {38055254}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Waterborne Diseases/epidemiology ; Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid38053883, year = {2023}, author = {Vafeiadou, A and Banissy, MJ and Banissy, JFM and Higgins, JPT and Howard, G}, title = {The influence of climate change on mental health in populations of the western Pacific region: An umbrella scoping review.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {e21457}, pmid = {38053883}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The Western Pacific Region (WPR) is on the front line of climate change challenges. Understanding how these challenges affect the WPR populations' mental health is essential to design effective prevention and care policies. Thus, the present study conducted an umbrella scoping review that examined the influence of climate change on mental health in the WPR, using review articles as a source of information. Ten review articles were selected according to eligibility criteria, and the findings were synthesized according to the socio-economic status of the countries identified: Australia, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, the Pacific Islands (broadly), and China. The findings revealed that each country and sub-region has its own unique profile of climate change-related challenges and vulnerable populations, highlighting the need for specific approaches to mental health care. Specifically, the influence of climate-related challenges differed according to populations' region (e.g., rural populations), demographic characteristics (e.g., age and gender), culture (e.g., traditional tights to land), and employment (e.g., farmers and fishers). The most frequently reported mental health outcomes in response to climate change-related challenges such as droughts, floods, storms, tornadoes, typhoons, and climate-related migration were the decline in mental well-being and the increase in post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms. In addition, using the GRADE framework for assessing the certainty of the findings, we identified that the number of articles discussing associations between a given climate change challenge and a mental health outcome was overall limited. Based on our findings and findings on a global scale, we identified several key research gaps in WPR and provided recommendations for future research and policy strategies.}, }
@article {pmid38053800, year = {2023}, author = {Gebre, GG and Amekawa, Y and Ashebir, A}, title = {Can farmers' climate change adaptation strategies ensure their food security? Evidence from Ethiopia.}, journal = {Agrekon}, volume = {62}, number = {2}, pages = {178-193}, pmid = {38053800}, issn = {2078-0400}, support = {INV-009934/GATES/Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to the sustainability of agricultural production among smallholder farm households in Ethiopia. To reduce the adverse effects of climate risks, farm households have sought to adopt different adaptation strategies. This study investigates factors influencing farm households' choice of climate adaptation strategies and associated effects on their food security in Ethiopia using data collected from 516 farm households from three regions. A multivariate probit and propensity score matching models were used to analyze data. Major adaptation strategies adopted by the farm households in the study area are planting drought-tolerant crop varieties (60%), changing the planting dates (53%), growing diversified crops (49%), and diversifying the sources of household income (45%). Results suggest that older farm household heads are more likely to use drought-tolerant crop varieties to reduce climate risks. Farm households with larger farmland size and those with more years of experience in farming are more likely to use drought-tolerant crop varieties and crop diversification strategies. Farm households with larger family size are more likely to use crop and income diversification strategies and change the planting dates against the backdrop of a high risk of climatic shocks. Membership in input supply cooperatives, frequency of contact with extension agents, and access to information on expected rainfall and temperature are positively associated with different adaptation practices adopted by farm households. Farm households who have adopted climate adaptation strategies have higher food security status (by 2.3-2.8%) compared to those who have not. Thus, the farm households' climate adaptation practices have positive food security effects in Ethiopia.}, }
@article {pmid38052686, year = {2023}, author = {Siegel, KJ and Cavanaugh, KC and Dee, LE}, title = {Balancing multiple management objectives as climate change transforms ecosystems.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2023.11.003}, pmid = {38052686}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {As climate change facilitates significant and persistent ecological transformations, managing ecosystems according to historical baseline conditions may no longer be feasible. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework can guide climate-informed management interventions, but in its current implementations RAD has not yet fully accounted for potential tradeoffs between multiple - sometimes incompatible - ecological and societal goals. Key scientific challenges for informing climate-adapted ecosystem management include (i) advancing our predictive understanding of transformations and their socioecological impacts under novel climate conditions, and (ii) incorporating uncertainty around trajectories of ecological change and the potential success of RAD interventions into management decisions. To promote the implementation of RAD, practitioners can account for diverse objectives within just and equitable participatory decision-making processes.}, }
@article {pmid38052203, year = {2023}, author = {Haigh, F and Crimeen, A and Green, L and Moeller, H and Conaty, SJ and Prior, JH and Harris-Roxas, B}, title = {Developing a climate change inequality health impact assessment for health services.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp3342336}, pmid = {38052203}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Impact Assessment ; New South Wales ; Health Services ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To develop a Climate Change Inequality Health Impact Assessment (CCIHIA) framework for health services; to provide a systematic process for assessing potential unequal health impacts of climate change on vulnerable and marginalised populations and places; to support effective planning to address these impacts; and to develop contextually appropriate local strategies. Type of program: A collaborative interdisciplinary scoping research project involving two universities and two local health districts (LHDs) in New South Wales (NSW) to develop a CCIHIA framework. This work builds upon the health impact assessment (HIA) approach, which systematically assesses proposals' potential health and equity impacts by involving stakeholders in developing responses.<br><br>METHODS: The project involved four main activities: understanding stakeholder requirements; conceptualising climate change vulnerability; considering the role of health services; and integrating findings into a conceptual framework.<br><br>RESULTS: Stakeholders identified key functions that should be addressed across the framing, process and utility of the CCIHIA framework. The resulting conceptual framework outlines contexts and social stratification, the differential impacts of climate change (including factors influencing unequal impacts) and the health system's position, and also identifies key potential points of intervention.<br><br>LESSONS LEARNT: The challenge of addressing the complexity of factors and resulting health impacts is reflected within the CCIHIA framework. While there are many intervention points within this framework for health services to address, many factors influencing unequal impacts are created outside the health sector's direct control. The framework's development process reflected the focus on collaboration and the interdisciplinary nature of climate change response. Ultimately, the CCIHIA framework is an assessment tool and an approach for prioritising inclusive, cross-cutting, multisector working, and problem-solving.}, }
@article {pmid38052178, year = {2023}, author = {Benitez-Alfonso, Y and Soanes, BK and Zimba, S and Sinanaj, B and German, L and Sharma, V and Bohra, A and Kolesnikova, A and Dunn, JA and Martin, AC and Khashi U Rahman, M and Saati-Santamaría, Z and García-Fraile, P and Ferreira, EA and Frazão, LA and Cowling, WA and Siddique, KHM and Pandey, MK and Farooq, M and Varshney, RK and Chapman, MA and Boesch, C and Daszkowska-Golec, A and Foyer, CH}, title = {Enhancing climate change resilience in agricultural crops.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {33}, number = {23}, pages = {R1246-R1261}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2023.10.028}, pmid = {38052178}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Crops, Agricultural ; *Climate Change ; Plant Breeding ; Agriculture ; Crop Production ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens global food and nutritional security through negative effects on crop growth and agricultural productivity. Many countries have adopted ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation targets that will exacerbate the problem, as they require significant changes in current agri-food systems. In this review, we provide a roadmap for improved crop production that encompasses the effective transfer of current knowledge into plant breeding and crop management strategies that will underpin sustainable agriculture intensification and climate resilience. We identify the main problem areas and highlight outstanding questions and potential solutions that can be applied to mitigate the impacts of climate change on crop growth and productivity. Although translation of scientific advances into crop production lags far behind current scientific knowledge and technology, we consider that a holistic approach, combining disciplines in collaborative efforts, can drive better connections between research, policy, and the needs of society.}, }
@article {pmid38047417, year = {2023}, author = {Moerman, TM and Albon, SD and Coulson, SJ and Loe, LE}, title = {Climate change effects on terrestrial parasitic nematodes: Where are the knowledge gaps?.}, journal = {Journal of helminthology}, volume = {97}, number = {}, pages = {e94}, doi = {10.1017/S0022149X23000652}, pmid = {38047417}, issn = {1475-2697}, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle ; Sheep ; *Nematode Infections/parasitology ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Nematoda ; Animals, Wild ; Mammals ; *Cattle Diseases ; *Sheep Diseases/parasitology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to affect parasitic nematodes and hence possibly parasite-host dynamics and may have far-reaching consequences for animal health, livestock production, and ecosystem functioning. However, there has been no recent overview of current knowledge to identify how studies could contribute to a better understanding of terrestrial parasitic nematodes under changing climates. Here we screened almost 1,400 papers to review 57 experimental studies on the effects of temperature and moisture on hatching, development, survival, and behaviour of the free-living stages of terrestrial parasitic nematodes with a direct life cycle in birds and terrestrial mammals. Two major knowledge gaps are apparent. First, research should study the temperature dependency curves for hatching, development, and survival under various moisture treatments to test the interactive effect of temperature and moisture. Second, we specifically advocate for more studies that investigate how temperature, and its interaction with moisture, affect both vertical and horizontal movement of parasitic nematodes to understand infection risks. Overall, we advocate for more field experiments that test environmental effects on life-history traits and behaviour of parasitic nematodes in their free-living stages under natural and realistic circumstances. We also encourage studies to expand the range of used hosts and parasitic nematodes because 66% of results described in the available studies use sheep and cattle as hosts and 32% involve just three nematode species. This new comprehension brings attention to understudied abiotic impacts on terrestrial parasitic nematodes and will have broader implications for livestock management, wildlife conservation, and ecosystem functioning in a rapidly warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid38046792, year = {2023}, author = {Whiting, E and Karia, CT and Tullie, S and Nightingale, C and Wilson, Y and Kay, A}, title = {Climate change and pavement burns in the United Kingdom: a case report of two patients.}, journal = {British paramedic journal}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {37-41}, pmid = {38046792}, issn = {1478-4726}, abstract = {Pavement burns are more common in locations familiarised with high temperatures and a dry climate zone, but have not previously been reported in temperate climates. We present two cases of patients who suffered pavement burns in the United Kingdom during an unprecedentedly hot day in July 2022. The first case involved a 66-year-old male who suffered partial and full thickness burns requiring excision and skin grafting. The second case involved a 58-year-old female with partial thickness burns also requiring excision and skin grafting. Both patients had pre-existing co-morbidities and their pavement burns were precipitated by heat stroke. Pavement burns represent a mechanism of injury that necessitates increased operative management, length of hospital stay and cost per surface area burned when compared to flame or scald burns (Silver et al., 2015). As a result of global warming, we anticipate extreme heat events, and subsequently pavement burns, to increase in incidence in the United Kingdom. There is opportunity for education of the public and health professionals for prevention.}, }
@article {pmid38045615, year = {2023}, author = {Shoib, S and Hussaini, SS and Armiya'u, AY and Saeed, F and Őri, D and Roza, TH and Gürcan, A and Agrawal, A and Solerdelcoll, M and Lucero-Prisno Iii, DE and Nahidi, M and Swed, S and Ahmed, S and Chandradasa, M}, title = {Prevention of suicides associated with global warming: perspectives from early career psychiatrists.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychiatry}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1251630}, pmid = {38045615}, issn = {1664-0640}, abstract = {Climate change poses significant challenges to global mental health, with potential consequences including increased rates of suicide and mental health disorders. Early Career Psychiatrists (ECPs) play a crucial role in addressing these challenges. The Climate Psychiatry Alliance, a group of psychiatrists dedicated to improving mental health amidst climate change, recognizes the importance of cultivating climate-aware ECPs. Training ECPs to become confident climate-aware clinicians enables them to effectively treat patients experiencing anxiety, depression, and PTSD in the context of climate-related distress. Together with other mental health professionals, ECPs can contribute to efforts by implementing strategies for monitoring and treating mental health problems arising from climate events. Additionally, they can raise awareness about the psychological consequences and risks of suicide associated with climate change. Collaboration among ECPs from various regions is essential in developing community-based approaches and reducing vulnerabilities. ECPs must prioritize supporting vulnerable populations by advocating for increased funding for mental health support and research in affected areas. Long-term solutions to address the mental health impacts of climate change and global warming should be pursued to mitigate future suicidality. Integrating climate considerations into local mental health programs and expanding psychological support services is crucial. By promoting emotional resilience and self-awareness, ECPs can contribute to building a more climate-resilient and mentally healthy society.}, }
@article {pmid38044542, year = {2023}, author = {Cains, MG and Desrousseaux, AOS and Boxall, ABA and Molander, S and Molina-Navarro, E and Sussams, J and Critto, A and Stahl, RG and Rother, HA}, title = {Environmental management cycles for chemicals and climate change, EMC[4] : A new conceptual framework contextualizing climate and chemical risk assessment and management.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4872}, pmid = {38044542}, issn = {1551-3793}, abstract = {The environmental management cycles for chemicals and climate change (EMC[4]) is a suggested conceptual framework for integrating climate change aspects into chemical risk management. The interaction of climate change and chemical risk brings together complex systems that are imperfectly understood by science. Making management decisions in this context is therefore difficult and often exacerbated by a lack of data. The consequences of poor decision-making can be significant for both environmental and human health. This article reflects on the ways in which existing chemicals management systems consider climate change and proposes the EMC[4] conceptual framework, which is a tool for decision-makers operating at different spatial scales. Also presented are key questions raised by the tool to help the decision-maker identify chemical risks from climate change, management options, and, importantly, the different types of actors that are instrumental in managing that risk. Case studies showing decision-making at different spatial scales are also presented highlighting the conceptual framework's applicability to multiple scales. The United Nations Environment Programme's development of an intergovernmental Science Policy Panel on Chemicals and Waste has presented an opportunity to promote and generate research highlighting the impacts of chemicals and climate change interlinkages. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;00:1-21. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology &amp; Chemistry (SETAC).}, }
@article {pmid38044014, year = {2023}, author = {Stukus, DR}, title = {What the practicing allergist can and should do regarding climate change.}, journal = {Annals of allergy, asthma &amp; immunology : official publication of the American College of Allergy, Asthma, &amp; Immunology}, volume = {131}, number = {6}, pages = {679-680}, doi = {10.1016/j.anai.2023.07.022}, pmid = {38044014}, issn = {1534-4436}, mesh = {Humans ; *Allergists ; Climate Change ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid38043819, year = {2023}, author = {Huo, T and Wang, J and Zhang, Y and Wei, B and Chen, K and Zhuang, M and Liu, N and Zhang, Y and Liang, J}, title = {Temperate grassland vegetation restoration influenced by grazing exclusion and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {168842}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168842}, pmid = {38043819}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Grasslands are one of the most important terrestrial biomes, supporting a wide range of ecological functions and services. Grassland degradation due to overgrazing is a severe issue worldwide, especially in developing regions. However, observations from multiple sources have shown that temperate grasslands in China have significantly increased during the past two decades. It remains controversial what factors have driven the vegetation restoration in this region. In this study, we combined remote-sensing images and field survey datasets to quantify the contributions of different factors to vegetation restoration in six temperate grasslands in northern China. Across the six grasslands, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) increased by 0.003-0.0319 year[-1]. The average contributions of grazing exclusion and climate change to the NDVI increase were 49.23 % and 50.77 %, respectively. Precipitation change was the primary climate factor driving vegetation restoration, contributing 50.76 % to the NDVI variance. By contrast, climate warming tended to slow vegetation restoration, and atmospheric CO2 concentration change contributed little to the NDVI increase in the temperate grasslands. These results emphasize the significant contributions of both climate change and human management to grassland vegetation restoration.}, }
@article {pmid38043354, year = {2024}, author = {Kim, HG and Cha, Y and Cho, KH}, title = {Projected climate change impact on cyanobacterial bloom phenology in temperate rivers based on temperature dependency.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {249}, number = {}, pages = {120928}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.120928}, pmid = {38043354}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Temperature ; Rivers ; Ecosystem ; *Cyanobacteria ; *Microcystis ; Lakes/microbiology ; Eutrophication ; }, abstract = {Climate warming is linked to earlier onset and extended duration of cyanobacterial blooms in temperate rivers. This causes an unpredictable extent of harm to the functioning of the ecosystem and public health. We used Microcystis spp. cell density data monitored for seven years (2016-2022) in ten sites across four temperate rivers of the Republic of Korea to define the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms and elucidate the climatic effect on their pattern. The day of year marking the onset, peak, and end of Microcystis growth were estimated using a Weibull function, and linear mixed-effect models were employed to analyze their relationships with environmental variables. These models identified river-specific temperatures at the beginning and end dates of cyanobacterial blooms. Furthermore, the most realistic models were employed to project future Microcystis bloom phenology, considering downscaled and quantile-mapped regional air temperatures from a general circulation model. Daily minimum and daily maximum air temperatures (mintemp and maxtemp) primarily drove the timing of the beginning and end of the bloom, respectively. The models successfully captured the spatiotemporal variations of the beginning and end dates, with mintemp and maxtemp predicted to be 24℃ (R[2] = 0.68) and 16℃ (R[2] = 0.35), respectively. The beginning and end dates were projected to advance considerably in the future under the Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. The simulations suggested that the largest uncertainty lies in the timing of when the bloom ends, whereas the timing of when blooming begins has less variation. Our study highlights the dependency of cyanobacterial bloom phenology on temperatures and earlier and prolonged bloom development.}, }
@article {pmid38043317, year = {2024}, author = {Zhao, M and Zhu, M and Chen, Y and Zhang, C and Cai, W}, title = {The uneven impacts of climate change on China's labor productivity and economy.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {351}, number = {}, pages = {119707}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119707}, pmid = {38043317}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change is considered to increase economic costs by worsening heat-related labor productivity loss. While extensive global and national research has been conducted on this topic, few studies have analyzed subnational and individual economic impacts, potentially weakening local governments' motivation to tackle climate change. Figuring out the most affected regions and labors could help climate policymakers to identify priority regions and sectors to allocate adaptation resources efficiently, and enhance stakeholder engagement. This study adopted a provincial Computable General Equilibrium model by distinguishing different labors and regions in modelling work to address the aforementioned gap. The study estimated economic costs at different level under three climate change scenarios (lower (SSP126), middle (SSP245), and higher (SSP585) warming scenario). Low-income regions located in southwest part of China (such as Guangxi and Guizhou), would experience the largest economic loss, 3.4-7.1 times higher than high-income in China by 2100 under SSP245 scenario. Additionally, wages for labors highly sensitive to heat in these regions are expected to rise, for example, by an 8.3% rise in Guangxi, driven by the rising demand for these labors. Conversely, others would experience a significant wage decrease, especially those with less sensitivity (e.g., managers). Therefore, we recommended that national financial supports be allocated more to these most affected regions and that government encourage managers provide assistance to workers vulnerable to heat.}, }
@article {pmid38043307, year = {2024}, author = {Zeng, J and Ai, B and Jian, Z and Zhao, J and Sun, S}, title = {Simulation of mangrove suitable habitat in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Area under the background of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {351}, number = {}, pages = {119678}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119678}, pmid = {38043307}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {Climate change has resulted in great influence on the geographical distribution of species. Mangrove forests are one of the most precious ecosystems on the planet, yet they are being threatened by the habitat destruction and degradation under the situation of global warming. Seeking suitable areas for planting mangroves to tackle climate change has been gradually popular in ecological restoration. In this study, we applied the Maximum Entropy algorithm to assess the contribution of environmental factors on mangrove distribution, simulated mangrove suitable habitat for present and future (scenario of SSP245-2070s), and used kernel density analysis for identifying priority of mangrove reserve construction. Results indicate that mean diurnal range and elevation made the highest contribution on mangrove distribution. At present, the mangrove habitat suitability along the western coast of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Area (GHMA) was the highest while that along the eastern coast was the lowest. By 2070s, mangrove suitable areas would show a decreasing trend under SSP245 scenario. High suitable areas (HSAs) would change fastest and shift to northeast in the same direction as dominant environmental factors. For further mangrove restoration, it is advisable to select sites with high suitability density in the future but low reclamation density at present as prior mangrove reserves, and these sites distribute along the northeastern and northwestern coast of Zhanjiang, Yangjiang and Jiangmen, the Pearl River Estuary and Honghai Bay of Shanwei. Meanwhile, regions with lower suitability density but higher reclamation density could be listed as secondary mangrove reserves.}, }
@article {pmid38042677, year = {2023}, author = {Sun, Y and Fernie, AR}, title = {Plant secondary metabolism in a fluctuating world: climate change perspectives.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2023.11.008}, pmid = {38042677}, issn = {1878-4372}, abstract = {Climate changes have unpredictable effects on ecosystems and agriculture. Plants adapt metabolically to overcome these challenges, with plant secondary metabolites (PSMs) being crucial for plant-environment interactions. Thus, understanding how PSMs respond to climate change is vital for future cultivation and breeding strategies. Here, we review PSM responses to climate changes such as elevated carbon dioxide, ozone, nitrogen deposition, heat and drought, as well as a combinations of different factors. These responses are complex, depending on stress dosage and duration, and metabolite classes. We finally identify mechanisms by which climate change affects PSM production ecologically and molecularly. While these observations provide insights into PSM responses to climate changes and the underlying regulatory mechanisms, considerable further research is required for a comprehensive understanding.}, }
@article {pmid38042649, year = {2023}, author = {Rahman, S and Ryan, S and Kim, J and Kenney, P and Ghali, F}, title = {Clinical Trials and Climate Change: Doing Our Part While Pursuing Progress.}, journal = {European urology focus}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {861-862}, doi = {10.1016/j.euf.2023.11.011}, pmid = {38042649}, issn = {2405-4569}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Clinical Trials as Topic ; }, abstract = {The escalating global climate crisis necessitates a critical examination of the environmental impact of various sectors, including health care. Ongoing efforts to establish standard methods for estimating emissions and tracking progress are needed to promote sustainable clinical research.}, }
@article {pmid38042519, year = {2023}, author = {Zhao, J and Uhde, E and Salthammer, T and Antretter, F and Shaw, D and Carslaw, N and Schieweck, A}, title = {Long-term prediction of the effects of climate change on indoor climate and air quality.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {243}, number = {}, pages = {117804}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117804}, pmid = {38042519}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Limiting the negative impact of climate change on nature and humans is one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century. Meanwhile, people in modern society spend most of the day indoors. It is therefore surprising that comparatively little attention has been paid to indoor human exposure in relation to climate change. Heat action plans have now been designed in many regions to protect people from thermal stress in their private homes and in public buildings. However, in order to be able to plan effectively for the future, reliable information is required about the long-term effects of climate change on indoor air quality and climate. The Indoor Air Quality Climate Change (IAQCC) model is an expediant tool for estimating the influence of climate change on indoor air quality. The model follows a holistic approach in which building physics, emissions, chemical reactions, mold growth and exposure are combined with the fundamental parameters of temperature and humidity. The features of the model have already been presented in an earlier publication, and it is now used for the expected climatic conditions in Central Europe, taking into account various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios up to the year 2100. For the test house examined in this study, the concentrations of pollutants in the indoor air will continue to rise. At the same time, the risk of mold growth also increases (the mold index rose from 0 to 4 in the worst case for very sensitive material). The biggest problem, however, is protection against heat and humidity. Massive structural improvements are needed here, including insulation, ventilation, and direct sun protection. Otherwise, the occupants will be exposed to increasing thermal discomfort, which can also lead to severe heat stress indoors.}, }
@article {pmid38042178, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, Y and Lu, YG and Zou, B and Xu, M and Feng, YX}, title = {Unraveling the enigma of NPP variation in Chinese vegetation ecosystems: The interplay of climate change and land use change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {169023}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169023}, pmid = {38042178}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global carbon emissions have exacerbated the greenhouse effect, exerting a profound impact on ecosystems worldwide. Gaining an understanding of the fluctuations in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is pivotal in the assessment of environmental quality, estimation of carbon source/sink potential, and facilitation of ecological restoration. Employing MODIS and meteorological data, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of NPP evolution in Chinese vegetation ecosystems (VESs), employing Theil-Sen median trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test. Furthermore, utilizing scenario-based analysis, we quantitatively determined the respective contributions of climate change and land use change to NPP variations across various scales. The overall NPP exhibited a discernible upward trend from 2000 to 2020, with a growth rate of 5.83 gC·m[-2]·year[-1]. Forestland ecosystem (FES) displayed the highest rate of increase (9.40 gC·m[-2]·year[-1]), followed by cropland ecosystem (CES) (4.00 gC·m[-2]·year[-1]) and grassland ecosystem (GES) (3.40 gC·m[-2]·year[-1]). Geographically, NPP exhibited a spatial pattern characterized by elevated values in the southeast and diminished values in the northwest. In addition, climate change had elevated 76.39 % of CES NPP, 90.62 % of FES NPP, and 71.78 % of GES NPP. At the national level, climate change accounted for 83.14 % of the NPP changes, while land use change contributed 14.14 %. Notably, climate change emerged as the primary driving force behind NPP variations across all VEGs, with land use change exerting the most pronounced influence on CES. At the grid scale (2 km × 2 km), land use change played a substantial role in all VEGs, contributing 60.01 % in CES, 54.20 % in FES, and 55.61 % in GES of the NPP variations.}, }
@article {pmid38041428, year = {2023}, author = {Demir, R and Yalazı, R&#xd6; and Dinç, A}, title = {The relationship between women's climate change awareness and concerns about climate change in Turkiye.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13269}, pmid = {38041428}, issn = {1525-1446}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to examine the relationship between women's awareness of climate change and their worries about climate change in terms of women's health in Turkiye.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey.<br><br>METHODS: The research was conducted in a descriptive study design in the relational survey model. The sample of the study consisted of 321 women. Data were collected with the "Personal Information Form, Adaptation of Awareness to Climate Change Questionnaire, Climate Change Worry Scale."<br><br>RESULTS: The total mean score of the Awareness to Climate Change Scale for Women was 2.32&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;0.61 (moderate awareness), and the total mean score of the Climate Change Worry Scale was 2.76&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;0.84 (moderate anxiety). There was a statistically significant, positive but weak relationship between women's worries about climate change and their awareness to climate change (r&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.373, p&#xa0;<&#xa0;.001).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As women's awareness to climate change increases, their worries about climate change increase.}, }
@article {pmid38040903, year = {2023}, author = {Wong, C}, title = {Climate change is also a health crisis - these 3 graphics explain why.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {624}, number = {7990}, pages = {14-15}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-03804-x}, pmid = {38040903}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change/mortality/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/mortality ; Food Insecurity ; *Global Health/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Global Warming/mortality/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Data Visualization ; Congresses as Topic ; }, }
@article {pmid38040886, year = {2023}, author = {Zhan, L}, title = {Revisiting dynamic linkages among ecological sustainability, tourism, and climate change in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38040886}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The research intends to inquire into the dynamic connections between ecological sustainability, tourism, and climate change. This novel approach aims to investigate the interdependencies among these three important variables. This research aims to examine tourism's effects on environmental sustainability in the face of global warming. We use a large dataset that comprises measures of tourist success, measurements of environmental sustainability, and climate change factors. Applying empirical estimation techniques allows a more detailed look at the data by accounting for variation across quantiles. The results of this study will aid in expanding our knowledge of the relationships among ecological sustainability, tourism, and climate change. To better understand the influence of tourism on ecological sustainability, it is helpful to quantify the interactions at various quantiles. Policymakers, stakeholders in the tourist sector, and environmental groups will find this information essential as they work to establish focused measures to encourage environmentally responsible travel and lessen the impact of climate change. This investigation also provides policy implications by shedding light on the interplay of tourist growth, ecological sustainability, and climate change reduction and offers research-based research solutions for achieving this delicate balancing action.}, }
@article {pmid38040362, year = {2023}, author = {Qu, R and Chen, S and Wang, K and Liu, Q and Yang, B and Yue, M and Peng, C}, title = {Potential future changes in soil carbon dynamics in the Ziwuling Forest, China under different climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {169008}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169008}, pmid = {38040362}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Soil carbon (C) cycling processes in terrestrial ecosystems are significantly influenced by global changes, and soil microorganisms play a crucial role in soil organic carbon (SOC) and its feedbacks to climate change. To investigate the potential future changes in soil C dynamics under different scenarios in the Ziwuling Forest region, China, we conducted a soil observation and sampling experiment from April 2021 to July 2022. By utilizing a microbial ecological model (MEND), we aimed to predict the future dynamics of soil C under different scenarios in the area. Our results demonstrate that under the RCP2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario, SOC showed a rapid increase, SOC under the RCP2.6 scenario will be significantly higher than those under the RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario in the topsoil and whole soil. Furthermore, the positive correlation between total litter carbon (LC) and SOC under the RCP2.6 scenario highlights the potential role of total litter carbon in driving SOC dynamics. Our study also revealed that the low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario favors the accumulation of SOC in the study area, while the high GHG emission scenario leads to greater soil carbon loss. Overall, these results underscore the importance of considering the impact of climate change, especially global warming, on soil ecosystems in the future. Protecting the soil ecosystem of the Loess Plateau is critical for maintaining soil carbon sinks, preventing soil erosion, and improving and regulating the surrounding environmental climate.}, }
@article {pmid38038342, year = {2023}, author = {Nikolić, N and Zotz, G and Bader, MY}, title = {Modelling the carbon balance in bryophytes and lichens: Presentation of PoiCarb 1.0, a new model for explaining distribution patterns and predicting climate-change effects.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e16266}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.16266}, pmid = {38038342}, issn = {1537-2197}, abstract = {PREMISE: Bryophytes and lichens have important functional roles in many ecosystems. Insight into their CO2 -exchange responses to climatic conditions is essential for understanding current and predicting future productivity and biomass patterns, but responses are hard to quantify at time scales beyond instantaneous measurements. We present PoiCarb 1.0, a model to study how CO2 -exchange rates of these poikilohydric organisms change through time as a function of weather conditions.<br><br>METHODS: PoiCarb simulates diel fluctuations of CO2 exchange and estimates long-term carbon balances, identifying optimal and limiting climatic patterns. Modelled processes were net photosynthesis, dark respiration, evaporation and water uptake. Measured CO2 -exchange responses to light, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and thallus water content (calculated in a separate module) were used to parameterize the model's carbon module. We validated the model by comparing modelled diel courses of net CO2 exchange to such courses from field measurements on the tropical lichen Crocodia aurata. To demonstrate the model's usefulness, we simulated potential climate-change effects.<br><br>RESULTS: Diel patterns were reproduced well, and the modelled and observed diel carbon balances were strongly positively correlated. Simulated warming effects via changes in metabolic rates were consistently negative, while effects via faster drying were variable, depending on the timing of hydration.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Reproducing weather-dependent variation in diel carbon balances is a clear improvement compared to simply extrapolating short-term measurements or potential photosynthetic rates. Apart from predicting climate-change effects, future uses of PoiCarb include testing hypotheses about distribution patterns of poikilohydric organisms and guiding conservation strategies for species.}, }
@article {pmid38037856, year = {2024}, author = {Malte, H and Wang, T}, title = {Climate change: The rise in atmospheric CO2 poses no risk for acid-base balance in humans.}, journal = {Acta physiologica (Oxford, England)}, volume = {240}, number = {1}, pages = {e14066}, doi = {10.1111/apha.14066}, pmid = {38037856}, issn = {1748-1716}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Acid-Base Equilibrium ; }, }
@article {pmid38036753, year = {2023}, author = {Chalazas, T and Bove, G and Chatzistratis, D and Monioudi, IN and Velegrakis, AF}, title = {A system for the management of sandy shorelines under climate change: United States Virgin Islands (USVI).}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38036753}, issn = {1654-7209}, abstract = {A methodological framework is presented for the assessment of beach vulnerability to climate variability and change on small touristic islands. Based on the development of a coastal vulnerability index (CVI) fueled by open-source Earth Observations and social media information, it includes both physical and socio-economic characteristics of the shoreline. In a pilot study in the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVIs), most beaches were found to be vulnerable to erosion. The CVI was utilized to rank the most likely vulnerable beaches, which were then studied using historic geomorphologic data; these beaches were confirmed to be predominantly eroding. Significant erosion is projected as sea levels rise; for example, by 2050 under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 50% of the 30 most vulnerable USVI beaches will erode by 50-100% of their current maximum width. The framework is designed to be used in vulnerable coastal settings that have limited financial and human resources.}, }
@article {pmid38036680, year = {2023}, author = {Sanderson, K}, title = {First cash pledged for countries devastated by climate change: COP28 starts with historic decision.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {624}, number = {7990}, pages = {13-14}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-03814-9}, pmid = {38036680}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; *Congresses as Topic ; *Vulnerable Populations ; *Developing Countries/economics ; *Decision Making ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid38036127, year = {2023}, author = {Zhao, J and Yu, X and Zhang, C and Hou, L and Wu, N and Zhang, W and Wang, Y and Yao, B and Delaplace, P and Tian, J}, title = {Harnessing microbial interactions with rice: Strategies for abiotic stress alleviation in the face of environmental challenges and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {168847}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168847}, pmid = {38036127}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Rice, which feeds more than half of the world's population, confronts significant challenges due to environmental and climatic changes. Abiotic stressors such as extreme temperatures, drought, heavy metals, organic pollutants, and salinity disrupt its cellular balance, impair photosynthetic efficiency, and degrade grain quality. Beneficial microorganisms from rice and soil microbiomes have emerged as crucial in enhancing rice's tolerance to these stresses. This review delves into the multifaceted impacts of these abiotic stressors on rice growth, exploring the origins of the interacting microorganisms and the intricate dynamics between rice-associated and soil microbiomes. We highlight their synergistic roles in mitigating rice's abiotic stresses and outline rice's strategies for recruiting these microorganisms under various environmental conditions, including the development of techniques to maximize their benefits. Through an in-depth analysis, we shed light on the multifarious mechanisms through which microorganisms fortify rice resilience, such as modulation of antioxidant enzymes, enhanced nutrient uptake, plant hormone adjustments, exopolysaccharide secretion, and strategic gene expression regulation, emphasizing the objective of leveraging microorganisms to boost rice's stress tolerance. The review also recognizes the growing prominence of microbial inoculants in modern rice cultivation for their eco-friendliness and sustainability. We discuss ongoing efforts to optimize these inoculants, providing insights into the rigorous processes involved in their formulation and strategic deployment. In conclusion, this review emphasizes the importance of microbial interventions in bolstering rice agriculture and ensuring its resilience in the face of rising environmental challenges.}, }
@article {pmid38035505, year = {2024}, author = {Ma, R and Zhang, J and Shen, X and Liu, B and Lu, X and Jiang, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change on fractional vegetation coverage of temperate grasslands in China from 1982 to 2015.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {350}, number = {}, pages = {119694}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119694}, pmid = {38035505}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Grassland ; Climate Change ; China ; Temperature ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The vegetation coverage of temperate grasslands in China has changed substantially due to climate change during the past decades, which significantly affects the function of grassland ecosystems. To appropriately carry out adaptive management and protect temperate grassland vegetation, it is important to understand the variations in fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) of China's temperate grasslands and how they are responding to climate change. Using the GIMMS NDVI and climatic datasets, this study explored the dynamics of FVC and their climatic drivers across the temperate grassland region of China during 1982∼2015. The results showed that the growing season mean FVC increased by 0.12% per year during 1982∼2015. The increases in precipitation and minimum temperature in the growing-season (especially in spring) could enhance the FVC of various vegetation types. In summer, the FVC of temperate steppe and desert steppe could drastically increase with increasing precipitation. In addition, this study found that the impacts of daytime and night-time warming on the FVC of temperate grasslands were asymmetric. Daytime warming can moderately increase FVC of temperate grasslands, while night-time warming could significantly increase it. Furthermore, the increase in summer daytime and night-time temperatures leads to a weak decrease and a moderate increase in FVC, respectively. This asymmetric effect was more evident for the temperate steppe and desert steppe in the central area. In autumn, the temperatures increase had significant positive impacts on the FVC of temperate meadows and steppes. This study highlights the differences in the impacts of climate change at different time scales on the FVC of grasslands with various vegetation types, and indicates that the asymmetric influences of daytime and night-time temperatures in different seasons on FVC must be included in calculating the vegetation coverage of China's temperate grasslands. The results could provide information for maintaining grassland ecosystem functions and managing environmental systems.}, }
@article {pmid38035503, year = {2024}, author = {Huang, H and Xue, J and Feng, X and Zhao, J and Sun, H and Hu, Y and Ma, Y}, title = {Thriving arid oasis urban agglomerations: Optimizing ecosystem services pattern under future climate change scenarios using dynamic Bayesian network.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {350}, number = {}, pages = {119612}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119612}, pmid = {38035503}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Bayes Theorem ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Soil ; China ; }, abstract = {The effects of global climate change and human activities are anticipated to significantly impact ecosystem services (ESs), particularly in urban agglomerations of arid regions. This paper proposes a framework integrating the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), system dynamics (SD) model, patch generation land use simulation (PLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model for predicting land use change and optimizing ESs spatial patterns that is built upon the SSP-RCP scenarios from CMIP6. This framework is applied to the oasis urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang (UANSTM), China. The findings indicate that both the SD model and PLUS model can accurately forecast the distribution of future land use. The SD model shows a relative error of less than 2.32%, while the PLUS model demonstrates a Kappa coefficient of 0.89. The land use pattern displays obvious spatial heterogeneity under different climate scenarios. The expansion of cultivated land and construction land is the main form of land use change in UANSTM in the future. The DBN model proficiently simulates the interactive relationships between ESs and diverse factors. The classification error rates for net primary productivity (NPP), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and soil retention (SR) are 20.04%, 3.47%, 4.45%, and 13.42%, respectively. The prediction and diagnosis of DBN determine the optimal ESs development scenario and the optimal ESs region in the study area. It is found that the majority of ESs in UANSTM are predominantly influenced by natural factors with the exception of HQ. The socio-economic development plays a minor role in such urban agglomerations. This study offers significant insights that can contribute to the fields of ecological protection and land use planning in arid urban agglomerations worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid38034343, year = {2023}, author = {Rioux, &#xc8; and Cabrol, J and Lesage, V}, title = {Long-term evolution of the structure of the St. Lawrence (Canada) marine ecosystem in the context of climate change and anthropogenic activities: An isotopic perceptive.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e10740}, pmid = {38034343}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Documenting long-term changes in the trophic structure of food webs and how species respond to these changes is essential to forecast their vulnerability and resilience to environmental stressors. Over the past decades, the St. Lawrence marine ecosystem (Canada) has experienced major changes in its physical, chemical, and biological conditions from overfishing, acoustic and chemical pollution, climate change, and the increased abundance of some top predators. These changes have likely affected the trophodynamics of the ecosystem, and are suspected to have deleterious effects on endangered species of mammals and other components of the ecosystem, such as blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus), fin whales (B. physalus), and beluga (Delphinapterus leucas). This study examined the trophic structure of the St. Lawrence marine ecosystem, including the isotopic niche of various species, over two periods of contrasting pressures from anthropogenic and climatic stressors (1995-2003 vs. 2019-2021). Stable isotope ratios were measured in 1240 samples of 21 species of marine invertebrates, fishes, and mammals sampled during both periods. A significant change in the isotopic value and niche position between periods is observed in most of the sampled species. While the direction of change and effect size were not uniform among species, these changes confirmed that substantial modifications in community structure have occurred over time. Niche overlap decreased considerably among some of the pelagic and demersal fishes, and among whale species during the most recent period. Combined with a concomitant reduction in niche breadth in several species, these observations suggested that resource sharing was limited among these species. This study highlighted some degree of dietary plasticity in several species, and a long-term change in the trophic structure of the St. Lawrence marine ecosystem, with likely effects on diet composition and energetics of several populations, including endangered species.}, }
@article {pmid38033177, year = {2023}, author = {Johnson, CA and Ren, R and Buckley, LB}, title = {Temperature Sensitivity of Fitness Components across Life Cycles Drives Insect Responses to Climate Change.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {202}, number = {6}, pages = {753-766}, doi = {10.1086/726896}, pmid = {38033177}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {Animals ; Temperature ; *Climate Change ; *Insecta/physiology ; Life Cycle Stages ; Fertility ; }, abstract = {AbstractThermal performance curves (TPCs) are increasingly used as a convenient approach to predict climate change impacts on ectotherms that accounts for organismal thermal sensitivity; however, directly applying TPCs to temperature data to estimate fitness has yielded contrasting predictions depending on assumptions regarding climate variability. We compare direct application of TPCs to an approach integrating TPCs for different fitness components (e.g., per capita birth rate, adult life span) across ectotherm life cycles into a population dynamic model, which we independently validated with census data and applied to hemipteran insect populations across latitude. The population model predicted that climate change will reduce insect fitness more at higher latitudes due to its effects on survival but will reduce net reproductive rate more at lower latitudes due to its effects on fecundity. Directly applying TPCs underestimated climate change impacts on fitness relative to incorporating the TPCs into the population model due to simplifying survival dynamics across the life cycle. The population model predicted that climate change will reduce mean insect density and increase population variability at higher latitudes via reduced survival, despite faster development and a longer activity period. Our study highlights the importance of considering how multiple fitness components respond to climate variability across the life cycle to better understand and anticipate the ecological consequence of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38033061, year = {2023}, author = {Li, X and Lam, SS and Xia, C and Zhong, H and Sonne, C}, title = {Climate change puts Amur leopard at risk.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {382}, number = {6674}, pages = {1007}, doi = {10.1126/science.adl6721}, pmid = {38033061}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid38032950, year = {2023}, author = {Artaxo, P}, title = {Amazon deforestation implications in local/regional climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {50}, pages = {e2317456120}, pmid = {38032950}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {2017/17047-0//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo (FAPESP)/ ; 2022/07974//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo (FAPESP)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forests ; Trees ; Causality ; }, }
@article {pmid38032944, year = {2023}, author = {Alak, G and Özgeriş, FB and Uçar, A and Parlak, V and Kocaman, EM and Özcan, S and Atamanalp, M}, title = {Effect of climate change on hematotoxicity/hepatoxicity oxidative stress, Oncorhynchus mykiss, under controlled conditions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {e0294656}, pmid = {38032944}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Oncorhynchus mykiss/physiology ; Climate Change ; Oxidative Stress ; Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Described as the 'main ecological factor', temperature, strongly affects the physiological stress responses of fish. In order to evaluate the effects of temperature variations on fish culture and food value chain, the present study was designed as a climate change model. Furthermore, the present study provides a theoretical basis for a better understanding of the mechanisms of the environmentally induced changes. In this direction, we examined the blood physiology and oxidative stress responses induced by temperature variation in the rainbow trout, a temperature-sensitive cold-water fish. The obtained results showed that climate changes promoted the inhibited activities' expressions and the development of potential tissue and hematological defense mechanisms against temperature-induced toxic damage. This study showed that climate change could be a subset of the studies on the stress physiology in aquaculture, which can be developed for new experimental designs and research collaborations. Furthermore, it highlights knowledge gaps to guide future research in this emerging field.}, }
@article {pmid38032927, year = {2023}, author = {Lima, M and Gayó, EM and Gurruchaga, A and Estay, SA and Santoro, CM}, title = {1000 years of population, warfare, and climate change in pre-Columbian societies of the Central Andes.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {e0278730}, pmid = {38032927}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Peru ; *Warfare ; Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Different Andean societies underwent processes of expansion and collapse during propitious or adverse climate conditions, resource boost or depletion along with population variations. Previous studies have emphasized that demographic collapses of polities in the Central Andes Area were triggered by warfare and the negative impacts of fluctuating climate (droughts) on crop productivity. Nevertheless, the interactions between climatic variability, demography and warfare have been less thoroughly evaluated. We develop population dynamic models to test feedback relationships between population growth, climate change and warfare in the Central Andes, where considerable regional hydroclimate variations have occurred over a millennium. Through population models, we found out that the rise and demise of social polities in the northern coast of the Central Andes appear to be a consequence of climate change. In contrast, for the highlands of Peru and the Titicaca basin, population models suggest that warfare intensity has a negative effect on population growth rates.}, }
@article {pmid38032348, year = {2023}, author = {Luongo, SM and Schneider, EVC and Harborne, AR and Kessel, ST and Papastamatiou, YP}, title = {Habitat-specific impacts of climate change on the trophic demand of a marine predator.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e4222}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.4222}, pmid = {38032348}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {//Dr. Scholl Foundation/ ; //Paul M. Angell Family Foundation/ ; //The Brunswick Foundation/ ; //Institute of Environment, Florida International University/ ; }, abstract = {Metabolic ecology predicts that ectotherm metabolic rates, and thus consumption rates, will increase with body size and temperature. Predicted climatic increases in temperature are likely to increase the consumption rates of ectothermic predators; however, the ecological impact of these increases will partly depend on whether prey productivity changes with temperature at a similar rate. Furthermore, total predator consumption and prey productivity will depend on species abundances that vary across habitat types. Here we combine energetics and biotelemetry to measure consumption rates in a critically endangered coral reef predator, the Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), in The Bahamas. We estimate that, at present, the Nassau grouper needs to consume 2.2% ± 1.0% body weight day[-1] , but this could increase up to 24% with a predicted 3.1°C increase in ocean temperature by the end of the century. We then used surveys of prey communities in two major reef habitat types (Orbicella reef and Gorgonian plain), to predict the proportion of prey productivity consumed by grouper and how this varied by habitat with changing climates. We found that at present, the predicted proportion of prey productivity consumed by Nassau grouper decreased with increasing prey productivity and averaged 1.2% across all habitats, with a greater proportion of prey productivity consumed (maximum of 5%) in Gorgonian plain habitats. However, because temperature increases consumption rates faster than prey productivity, the proportion of prey productivity consumed in a Gorgonian plain habitat could increase up to 24% under future climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that increasing ocean temperatures will lead to significant energetic challenges for the Nassau grouper because of differential impacts within reef food webs, but the magnitude of these impacts will probably vary across prey productivity gradients.}, }
@article {pmid38031869, year = {2023}, author = {Moreira, RP and Cavalcante, TF and Cândido Morais, HC and Saturnino de Oliveira, AS and da Silva Silveira, C and Costa, AC}, title = {Is an update of nursing taxonomies required due to climate change impacts?.}, journal = {International journal of nursing knowledge}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/2047-3095.12455}, pmid = {38031869}, issn = {2047-3095}, }
@article {pmid38030910, year = {2023}, author = {Prosser, DJ and Teitelbaum, CS and Yin, S and Hill, NJ and Xiao, X}, title = {Climate change impacts on bird migration and highly pathogenic avian influenza.}, journal = {Nature microbiology}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {2223-2225}, pmid = {38030910}, issn = {2058-5276}, mesh = {Animals ; *Influenza in Birds/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Birds ; Animals, Wild ; }, }
@article {pmid38030905, year = {2023}, author = {Gewin, V}, title = {Microbiology must be represented at climate change talks.}, journal = {Nature microbiology}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {2238-2241}, pmid = {38030905}, issn = {2058-5276}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *International Cooperation ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid38030900, year = {2023}, author = {Mordecai, EA}, title = {Tackling climate change and deforestation to protect against vector-borne diseases.}, journal = {Nature microbiology}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {2220-2222}, pmid = {38030900}, issn = {2058-5276}, support = {DEB-2011147//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; R35GM133439//Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (Foundation for the National Institutes of Health, Inc.)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Disease Vectors ; *Vector Borne Diseases/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid38030896, year = {2023}, author = {Casadevall, A}, title = {Global warming could drive the emergence of new fungal pathogens.}, journal = {Nature microbiology}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {2217-2219}, pmid = {38030896}, issn = {2058-5276}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Fungi/pathogenicity ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; *Mycoses ; }, }
@article {pmid38030008, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, L and Fan, Y and Zheng, J and Guan, J and Lin, J and Wu, J and Liu, L and Wu, R and Liu, Y}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human activity on the potential distribution of Aconitum leucostomum in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {168829}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168829}, pmid = {38030008}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Aconitum leucostomum is a poisonous grass that disturbs grassland populations and livestock development, and its spread is influenced by climate change and human activities. Therefore, exploring its potential distribution area under such conditions is crucial to maintain grassland ecological security and livestock development. The present study initially selected 39 variables that may influence the spatial distribution of A. leucostomum, including bioclimate, soil, topography, solar radiation, and human footprint data; the variables were screened by Spearman's correlation coefficient and the jackknife method. Twenty variables were finally identified, and three types of models based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model were constructed to predict the distribution of A. leucostomum within China under three shared economy pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585): A: prediction of environmental variables under the current climate model; B: prediction of environmental variables + human footprint under the current climate model; and C: prediction of environmental variables under the future climate model (including the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s). The effects of human activities and climate change on the potential geographic distribution of A. leucostomum were explored separately. The results show that precipitation seasonality, human footprint, solar radiation and mean diurnal range are the main factors affecting the distribution of A. leucostomum. Human activities inhibit the spread of A. leucostomum, and climate change promotes its growth, with areas of high suitability and area variation mainly in northern Xinjiang and northern Yunnan. With climate change, in the future, the distribution center of A. leucostomum shows a tendency to migrate to the southeast on the horizontal gradient and to move to higher altitudes on the vertical gradient. This study provides a positive reference value for the control of A. leucostomum and the maintenance of grassland ecological security.}, }
@article {pmid38027868, year = {2023}, author = {Javed, MN and Adnan, HM and Hanan, MA and Sarmiti, NZ and Adeeb, H and Khan, A and Iftikhar, A}, title = {Social media reporting on agricultural adaptation to climate change in Pakistan: Measures and implications for sustainability.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {e21579}, pmid = {38027868}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The agricultural sector is the backbone and single-largest sector of the Pakistani economy. Pakistan's agricultural productivity is suffering due to climate change. The study aimed at finding how social media reporting can change patterns of attitudes among farmers to cope with sudden weather changes. A correlation-experimental research design was used to find the relationships and effects of climate change on agriculture in Punjab (Pakistan) and the mediating effect of social media reporting. A purposive sampling technique was used to collect samples from 120 male farmers. Online surveys, with the help of Google Docs, were used to collect participants' responses about the type of behavior they used to adopt when getting information about climate change through social media. After determining their reliability and validity through piloting, two self-constructed questionnaires were used: (i) Measuring Farmers' Behavior Influenced by Social Media Reporting of Climate Change and (ii) Effects of Social Media Reporting of Climate Change on Agriculture. Data were analyzed using SPSS-21, and correlation analysis was done to find out the relationship between social media reporting and farmers' behavior. Linear regression was used to measure the functional relationship between social media reporting about climate change and farmers' attitudes towards adopting precautions to increase annual yield. The coefficient of social media reporting was positively and significantly related to farmers' attitudes towards the selection of crops, land management, and water storage. Based on the findings, the social media reports significantly predicted patterns of farmers' behavior towards the adaptation of advanced measures to select crops, reduce pest attacks, manage land, and store water.}, }
@article {pmid38026017, year = {2023}, author = {Nagano, K and Hiraiwa, MK and Ishiwaka, N and Seko, Y and Hashimoto, K and Uchida, T and Sánchez-Bayo, F and Hayasaka, D}, title = {Global warming intensifies the interference competition by a poleward-expanding invader on a native dragonfly species.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {230449}, pmid = {38026017}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Rapid climate warming has boosted biological invasions and the distribution or expansion polewards of many species: this can cause serious impacts on local ecosystems within the invaded areas. Subsequently, native species may be exposed to threats of both interspecific competition with invaders and temperature rises. However, effects of warming on interspecific interactions, especially competition between invader and native species remains unclear. To better understand the combined threats of biological invasions and warming, the effect of temperature on competitive interactions between two dragonfly species, the expanding Trithemis aurora from Southeast Asia and the Japanese native Orthetrum albistylum speciosum were assessed based on their foraging capacity. Although the stand-alone effect of temperature on foraging intake of the native dragonfly was not apparent, its intake significantly decreased with increasing temperatures when the invader T. aurora was present. Such reductions in foraging might lead to displacement of the native species through competition for food resources. This suggests that impacts of invader species against native species are expected to be more severe when interspecific competition is exacerbated by temperature rises.}, }
@article {pmid38025735, year = {2023}, author = {Nimbs, MJ and Champion, C and Lobos, SE and Malcolm, HA and Miller, AD and Seinor, K and Smith, SDA and Knott, N and Wheeler, D and Coleman, MA}, title = {Genomic analyses indicate resilience of a commercially and culturally important marine gastropod snail to climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e16498}, pmid = {38025735}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Snails/genetics ; Oceans and Seas ; Genome ; Genomics ; }, abstract = {Genomic vulnerability analyses are being increasingly used to assess the adaptability of species to climate change and provide an opportunity for proactive management of harvested marine species in changing oceans. Southeastern Australia is a climate change hotspot where many marine species are shifting poleward. The turban snail, Turbo militaris is a commercially and culturally harvested marine gastropod snail from eastern Australia. The species has exhibited a climate-driven poleward range shift over the last two decades presenting an ongoing challenge for sustainable fisheries management. We investigate the impact of future climate change on T. militaris using genotype-by-sequencing to project patterns of gene flow and local adaptation across its range under climate change scenarios. A single admixed, and potentially panmictic, demographic unit was revealed with no evidence of genetic subdivision across the species range. Significant genotype associations with heterogeneous habitat features were observed, including associations with sea surface temperature, ocean currents, and nutrients, indicating possible adaptive genetic differentiation. These findings suggest that standing genetic variation may be available for selection to counter future environmental change, assisted by widespread gene flow, high fecundity and short generation time in this species. We discuss the findings of this study in the content of future fisheries management and conservation.}, }
@article {pmid38025449, year = {2023}, author = {Grande, AJ and Dias, IMAV and Jardim, PTC and Vieira Machado, AA and Soratto, J and da Rosa, MI and Roever, L and Bisognin Ceretta, L and Zourntos, X and Harding, S}, title = {Climate change and mental health of Indigenous peoples living in their territory: a concept mapping study.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychiatry}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1237740}, pmid = {38025449}, issn = {1664-0640}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The alarming increase in annual deforestation rates has had devastating consequences in climate change, and it is affecting Indigenous people, who depend entirely on the land for survival and has also weakened the rainforest's crucial role in stabilizing the global climate. Recognizing and respecting Indigenous people's needs and social, economic, and historical conditions influence health and healthcare. This study aimed to conduct online concept mapping workshops with university students to identify perceived important and feasible actions for improving the mental health of Indigenous people living in their territory in association with climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Concept mapping, a participatory mixed methodology, was conducted virtually with 20 Indigenous students at two universities in Brazil. A focus prompt was developed from consultations with Indigenous stakeholders and read-"To improve the mental health of Indigenous peoples in their territory during climate change crises, it is necessary to&#x2026;."<br><br>RESULTS: University students organized 42 unique statements in 6 clusters that cover a wide range of topics: family support, 0.68 (SD 0.19); respect and understanding, 0.37 (SD 0.08); improvement actions, 0.52 (SD 0.07); public policies in favor of Indigenous people's mental health, 0.24 (0.09); health actions, 0.15 (SD 0.08); Indigenous training in health and its importance in improving mental health 0.32 (SD 0.07).<br><br>CONCLUSION: These clusters range from community initiatives, public policies, health actions, and strengthening professional services in Indigenous communities. These all provide numerous concrete ideas for developing interventions designed to address mental health challenges associated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38024393, year = {2023}, author = {Stern, R and Muller, JD and Rotenberg, E and Amer, M and Segev, L and Yakir, D}, title = {Photovoltaic fields largely outperform afforestation efficiency in global climate change mitigation strategies.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {2}, number = {11}, pages = {pgad352}, pmid = {38024393}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {Suppression of carbon emissions through photovoltaic (PV) energy and carbon sequestration through afforestation provides complementary climate change mitigation (CCM) strategies. However, a quantification of the "break-even time" (BET) required to offset the warming impacts of the reduced surface reflectivity of incoming solar radiation (albedo effect) is needed, though seldom accounted for in CCM strategies. Here, we quantify the CCM potential of PV fields and afforestation, considering atmospheric carbon reductions, solar panel life cycle analysis (LCA), surface energy balance, and land area required across different climatic zones, with a focus on drylands, which offer the main remaining land area reserves for forestation aiming climate change mitigation (Rohatyn S, Yakir D, Rotenberg E, Carmel Y. Limited climate change mitigation potential through forestation of the vast dryland regions. 2022. Science 377:1436-1439). Results indicate a BET of PV fields of ∼2.5 years but >50× longer for dryland afforestation, even though the latter is more efficient at surface heat dissipation and local surface cooling. Furthermore, PV is ∼100× more efficient in atmospheric carbon mitigation. While the relative efficiency of afforestation compared with PV fields significantly increases in more mesic climates, PV field BET is still ∼20× faster than in afforestation, and land area required greatly exceeds availability for tree planting in a sufficient scale. Although this analysis focusing purely on the climatic radiative forcing perspective quantified an unambiguous advantage for the PV strategy over afforestation, both approaches must be combined and complementary, depending on climate zone, since forests provide crucial ecosystem, climate regulation, and even social services.}, }
@article {pmid38023903, year = {2023}, author = {Xing, Z and Li, X and Mao, D and Luo, L and Wang, Z}, title = {Heterogeneous responses of wetland vegetation to climate change in the Amur River basin characterized by normalized difference vegetation index from 1982 to 2020.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1290843}, pmid = {38023903}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change affects wetland vegetation dramatically in mid- and high- latitudes, especially in the Amur River basin (ARB), straddling three countries and distributing abundance wetlands. In this study, spatiotemporal changes in average normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of wetland during the annual growing season were examined in the ARB from 1982 to 2020, and the responses of wetland vegetation to climatic change (temperature and precipitation) in different countries, geographic gradients, and time periods were analyzed by correlation analysis. The NDVI of wetland in the ARB increased significantly (p < 0.01) at the rate of 0.023 per decade from 1982 to 2020, and the NDVI on the Russian side (0.03 per decade) increased faster than that on the Chinese side (0.02 per decade). The NDVI of wetland was significantly positively correlated with daily mean temperature (p < 0.05, r = 0.701) and negatively correlated with precipitation, although the correlation was not significant (p > 0.05, r = -0.12). However, the asymmetric effects of diurnal warming on wetland vegetation were weak in the ARB. Correlations between the NDVI of wetland and climatic factors were zonal in latitudinal and longitudinal directions, and 49°N and 130°E were the points for a shift between increasing and decreasing correlation coefficients, closely related to the climatic zone. Under climate warming scenarios, the NDVI of wetland is predicted to continue to increase until 2080. The findings of this study are expected to deepen the understanding on response of wetland ecosystem to global change and promote regional wetland ecological protection.}, }
@article {pmid38020238, year = {2023}, author = {Larabi, S and Schnorbus, MA and Zwiers, F}, title = {Diagnosing the ability of reservoir operations to meet hydropower production and fisheries needs under climate change in a western cordillera drainage basin.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {176}, number = {12}, pages = {161}, pmid = {38020238}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Water regulation has contributed to the decline in Pacific salmon in British Columbia (Canada) despite attempts to manage reservoir operations to achieve operational requirements while meeting environmental needs to limit fish thermal stress. The ability of reservoir managers to meet these trade-offs in a changing climate is unknown. Here, we examine the reliability and vulnerability of the Nechako Reservoir to meet hydropower production commitments and fisheries needs under two projected Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). While our findings are specific to the operation of the Nechako Reservoir, the issues that emerge are likely common to many reservoirs in areas where reservoir inflow regimes are currently snow-storage dominated. We found that projected changes in the timing of water availability have little to no influence on hydropower generation commitments. However, larger water releases will be required to avoid compromising reservoir safety, possibly endangering downstream fish habitat through scouring. Furthermore, the temperature of water released from the reservoir is projected to more frequently exceed a level, 20°C, that is detrimental to migrating sockeye salmon. Water released is subject to further warming as it travels towards the lower reaches of the Nechako River used by migrating salmon. Hence, there is a need to adapt reservoir operations to ensure reservoir safety and mitigate adverse effects on salmon habitat.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-023-03632-y.}, }
@article {pmid38018689, year = {2023}, author = {Li, S and Agathokleous, E and Li, S and Xu, Y and Xia, J and Feng, Z}, title = {Climate gradient and leaf carbon investment influence the effects of climate change on water use efficiency of forests: A meta-analysis.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/pce.14777}, pmid = {38018689}, issn = {1365-3040}, support = {42061160479//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 42207153//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 4210070867//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Forest ecosystems cover a large area of the global land surface and are important carbon sinks. The water-carbon cycles of forests are prone to climate change, but uncertainties remain regarding the magnitude of water use efficiency (WUE) response to climate change and the underpinning mechanism driving WUE variation. We conducted a meta-analysis of the effects of elevated CO2 concentration (eCO2), drought and elevated temperature (eT) on the leaf- to plant-level WUE, covering 80 field studies and 95 tree species. The results showed that eCO2 increased leaf intrinsic and instantaneous WUE (WUEi, WUEt), whereas drought enhanced both leaf- and plant-level WUEs. eT increased WUEi but decreased carbon isotope-based WUE, possibly due to the influence of mesophyll conductance. Stimulated leaf-level WUE by drought showed a progressing trend with increasing latitude, while eCO2 -induced WUE enhancement showed decreasing trends after >40° N. These latitudinal gradients might influence the spatial pattern of climate and further drove WUE variation. Moreover, high leaf-level WUE under eCO2 and drought was accompanied by low leaf carbon contents. Such a trade-off between growth efficiency and defence suggests a potentially compromised tolerance to diseases and pests. These findings add important ecophysiological parameters into climate models to predict carbon-water cycles of forests.}, }
@article {pmid38018499, year = {2023}, author = {Mentzel, S and Nathan, R and Noyes, P and Brix, KV and Moe, SJ and Rohr, JR and Verheyen, J and Van den Brink, PJ and Stauber, J}, title = {Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical, and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs: A case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4871}, pmid = {38018499}, issn = {1551-3793}, support = {//NIVA's Computational Toxicology Program/ ; 813124//HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions/ ; }, abstract = {An understanding of the combined effects of climate change (CC) and other anthropogenic stressors, such as chemical exposures, is essential for improving ecological risk assessments of vulnerable ecosystems. In the Great Barrier Reef, coral reefs are under increasingly severe duress from increasing ocean temperatures, acidification, and cyclone intensities associated with CC. In addition to these stressors, inshore reef systems, such as the Mackay-Whitsunday coastal zone, are being impacted by other anthropogenic stressors, including chemical, nutrient, and sediment exposures related to more intense rainfall events that increase the catchment runoff of contaminated waters. To illustrate an approach for incorporating CC into ecological risk assessment frameworks, we developed an adverse outcome pathway network to conceptually delineate the effects of climate variables and photosystem II herbicide (diuron) exposures on scleractinian corals. This informed the development of a Bayesian network (BN) to quantitatively compare the effects of historical (1975-2005) and future projected climate on inshore hard coral bleaching, mortality, and cover. This BN demonstrated how risk may be predicted for multiple physical and biological stressors, including temperature, ocean acidification, cyclones, sediments, macroalgae competition, and crown of thorns starfish predation, as well as chemical stressors such as nitrogen and herbicides. Climate scenarios included an ensemble of 16 downscaled models encompassing current and future conditions based on multiple emission scenarios for two 30-year periods. It was found that both climate-related and catchment-related stressors pose a risk to these inshore reef systems, with projected increases in coral bleaching and coral mortality under all future climate scenarios. This modeling exercise can support the identification of risk drivers for the prioritization of management interventions to build future resilient reefs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;00:1-18. © 2023 Norwegian Institute for Water Research and The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology &amp; Chemistry (SETAC). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.}, }
@article {pmid38017334, year = {2023}, author = {Daly, T and Buedo, P}, title = {Applying Ethics to Mental Health and Climate Change.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {38017334}, issn = {1545-7230}, }
@article {pmid38016725, year = {2023}, author = {Wise, J}, title = {Health is the engine to drive more urgent action on climate change, says WHO.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {383}, number = {}, pages = {2807}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.p2807}, pmid = {38016725}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Global Health ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid38016233, year = {2024}, author = {Abu El-Magd, SA and Masoud, AM and Hassan, HS and Nguyen, NM and Pham, QB and Haneklaus, NH and Hlawitschka, MW and Maged, A}, title = {Towards understanding climate change: Impact of land use indices and drainage on land surface temperature for valley drainage and non-drainage areas.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {350}, number = {}, pages = {119636}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119636}, pmid = {38016233}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Temperature ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Environment ; Urbanization ; Soil ; Cities ; }, abstract = {The continuous increase of urbanization and industrialization brought various climatic changes, leading to global warming. The unavailability of meteorological data makes remotely sensed data important for understanding climate change. Therefore, the land surface temperature (LST) is critical in understanding global climate changes and related hydrological processes. The main objective of this work is to explore the dominant drivers of land use and hydrologic indices for LST in drainage and non-drainage areas. Specifically, the relationship between LST changes, land use, and hydrologic indices in Northeast Qena, Egypt, was investigated. The Landsat 5 and 8 imagery, Geographic Information System (GIS), and R-package were applied to identify the change detection during 2000-2021. The normalized difference between vegetation index (NDVI), bare soil index (BSI), normalized difference built-up, built-up index (BUI), modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI), and soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) were employed. The non-drainage or mountain areas were found to be more susceptible to high LST values. The comprehensive analysis and assessment of the spatiotemporal changes of LST indicated that land use and hydrologic indices were driving factors for LST changes. Considerably, LST retrieved from the Landsat imaginary showed significant variation between the maximum LST during 2000 (44.82°C) and 2021 (50.74°C). However, NDBI has got less spread during the past (2000) with 10-13%. A high negative correlation was observed between the LST and NDVI, while the SAVI and LST positively correlated. The results of this study provide relevant information for environmental planning to local management authorities.}, }
@article {pmid38015408, year = {2023}, author = {Shultz, L and López-Pérez, AM and Jasuja, R and Helman, S and Prager, K and Tokuyama, A and Quinn, N and Bucklin, D and Rudd, J and Clifford, D and Brown, J and Riley, S and Foley, J}, title = {Vector-Borne Disease in Wild Mammals Impacted by Urban Expansion and Climate Change.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {286-299}, pmid = {38015408}, issn = {1612-9210}, support = {Cooperative Agreement 1U01CK000516//Pacific Southwest Regional Center of Excellence for Vector-borne Diseases funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Foxes ; Climate Change ; *Coyotes ; Raccoons ; *Rickettsia ; *Vector Borne Diseases ; *Siphonaptera ; Opossums ; }, abstract = {Ecologies of zoonotic vector-borne diseases may shift with climate and land use change. As many urban-adapted mammals can host ectoparasites and pathogens of human and animal health concern, our goal was to compare patterns of arthropod-borne disease among medium-sized mammals across gradients of rural to urban landscapes in multiple regions of California. DNA of Anaplasma phagocytophilum was found in 1-5% of raccoons, coyotes, and San Joaquin kit foxes; Borrelia burgdorferi in one coyote, rickettsiae in two desert kit foxes, and Yersinia pestis in two coyotes. There was serological evidence of rickettsiae in 14-37% of coyotes, Virginia opossums, and foxes; and A. phagocytophilum in 6-40% of coyotes, raccoons, Virginia opossums, and foxes. Of six flea species, one Ctenocephalides felis from a raccoon was positive for Y. pestis, and Ct. felis and Pulex simulans fleas tested positive for Rickettsia felis and R. senegalensis. A Dermacentor similis tick off a San Joaquin kit fox was PCR-positive for A. phagocytophilum. There were three statistically significant risk factors: risk of A. phagocytophilum PCR-positivity was threefold greater in fall vs the other three seasons; hosts adjacent to urban areas had sevenfold increased A. phagocytophilum seropositivity compared with urban and rural areas; and there was a significant spatial cluster of rickettsiae within greater Los Angeles. Animals in areas where urban and rural habitats interconnect can serve as sentinels during times of change in disease risk.}, }
@article {pmid38015217, year = {2023}, author = {Campo, R}, title = {Made of Flower and Flame: Poetry and Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {330}, number = {20}, pages = {2026}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2023.20811}, pmid = {38015217}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Flowers ; *Poetry as Topic ; }, }
@article {pmid38015011, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, CL and Luo, PQ and Hu, FY and Li, Y and Sung, CL and Kuang, YH and Lin, SC and Yang, ZW and Li, CP and Huang, SH and Hechanova, SL and Jena, KK and Hsieh, CH and Chuang, WP}, title = {Pyramiding BPH genes in rice maintains resistance against the brown planthopper under climate change.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ps.7902}, pmid = {38015011}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {110-2313-B-002-026-MY3//National Science and Technology Council, Taiwan/ ; NTU-109L7864//National Taiwan University/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Nilaparvata lugens (brown planthopper; BPH) is a significant rice pest in Asia, causing substantial yield losses. Pyramiding BPH resistance genes with diverse resistance traits into rice cultivars is an effective strategy for pest management. However, the response of pyramiding combinations to environmental changes remains unclear. To address this knowledge gap, we investigated three pyramiding rice lines (BPH2 + 32, BPH9 + 32, and BPH18 + 32) in the context of varying climate change conditions, ensuring sufficient N. lugens-rice interactions. Thus, we set three environmental conditions [30/25 °C (day/night) with 500 ppm CO2 concentration, 32/27 °C (day/night) with 600 ppm CO2 concentration, and 35/30 °C (day/night) with 1000 ppm CO2 concentration].<br><br>RESULTS: All three pyramiding rice lines maintained the insect resistant ability under the three environmental settings. In particular, the BPH18&#x2009;+&#x2009;32 rice line exhibited stronger antibiotic and antixenosis effects against N. lugens. In addition, BPH18&#x2009;+&#x2009;32 rice line had better shoot resilience under N. lugens infestation, whereas the performance of the other two selected pyramiding rice lines varied. Thus, although BPH2, BPH9, and BPH18 represent three alleles at the same locus, their resistance levels against N. lugens may vary under distinct climate change scenarios, as evidenced by the performance of N. lugens on the three pyramiding rice lines.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that all three tested pyramiding rice lines maintained their insect resistance in the face of diverse climate change scenarios. However, these lines exhibited varied repellent responses and resilience capacities in response to climate change. Thus, the combination of pyramiding genes needs to be considered for future breeding programs. &#xa9; 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid38015000, year = {2024}, author = {Shah, AD}, title = {Climate change and kidney health: an urgent call to action.}, journal = {Current opinion in nephrology and hypertension}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {77}, doi = {10.1097/MNH.0000000000000937}, pmid = {38015000}, issn = {1473-6543}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Kidney ; }, }
@article {pmid38014991, year = {2023}, author = {Bagheri, M and Azimi, M and Khoshnamvand, H and Abdoli, A and Ahmadzadeh, F}, title = {The threat of a non-native oligochaete species in Iran's freshwater: assessment of the diversity and origin of Eiseniella tetraedra (Savigny, 1826) and its response to climate change.}, journal = {Biology open}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/bio.060180}, pmid = {38014991}, issn = {2046-6390}, support = {//Shahid Beheshti University/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Iran ; *Oligochaeta ; Fresh Water ; }, abstract = {Oligochaetes are the most abundant benthic taxa in aquatic ecosystems that play an important role in food webs. The present study aims to assess the diversity and origin of Eiseniella tetraedra as a non-native species in the Lar National Park of Iran and also its response to current and future climate change. We obtained the specimen from rivers and sequenced the mitochondrial gene Cytochrome Oxidase subunit I (COI) and combined them with 117 sequences from the Jajroud and Karaj rivers in Iran and native regions from GenBank (NCBI). We also ran Species Distribution Modelings (SDMs) using an ensemble model approach that was estimated according to two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs): 126 and 585 of the MRI-ESM2 based on CMIP6. According to the results, all the samples examined in the current study originated from Spanish rivers, and no unique haplotype was found in the Lar National Park. Moreover, the results also show high haplotype diversity that can positively affect the success of this non-native species in different freshwater. Also, the results of SDMs depict that climate change would remarkably affect the distribution of E. tetraedra and it verifies the invasion power of E. tetraedra in Iran's freshwater ecosystems over time.}, }
@article {pmid38014493, year = {2024}, author = {Karaba Bäckström, M and Lundgreen, E and Slaug, B}, title = {Mitigating the effects of climate change in children's outdoor play environments.}, journal = {Scandinavian journal of occupational therapy}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {1-13}, doi = {10.1080/11038128.2023.2275697}, pmid = {38014493}, issn = {1651-2014}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Play and Playthings ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: For many children, public playgrounds represent environments that are playful and important in developing good health. Without efforts to facilitate climate change adaptation of outdoor playgrounds there may be a negative impact on children's health and well-being.<br><br>AIM: With a special focus on play value, to explore the reasoning and described strategies among professionals responsible for development, planning and solutions concerning outdoor playgrounds in the context of climate change.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eight semi-structured interviews were held with purposefully selected interviewees. Analysis was conducted with manifest content analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Four themes with supporting categories; 1: a new design paradigm for outdoor play environments, 2: a need for updated regulation- and security guidelines for outdoor play environments, 3: nature-based play environments are more climate change resilient, and 4: maintenance and construction of nature-based outdoor play environments. The findings showed an overall awareness and a will to use innovative and nature-based strategies and planning to deal with climate change implications for outdoor play environments.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The findings suggest that the strategies employed lean towards implementation of increased ecosystem services and natural elements. Ensuring strengthened resilience against hazardous climate change effects may positively facilitate diverse play activities with high play value.}, }
@article {pmid38011645, year = {2023}, author = {Vázquez-Ramírez, J and Venn, SE}, title = {Snow, fire and drought: How alpine and treeline soil seed banks are affected by simulated climate change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcad184}, pmid = {38011645}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Seed persistence in soil depends on environmental factors that affect seed dormancy and germination, such as temperature and water availability. In high-elevation ecosystems, rapid changes in these environmental factors due to climate change can impact future plant recruitment. To date, our knowledge on how soil seed banks from high-altitude environments will respond to climate change and extreme climate-related events is limited. Here, using the seedling emergence method, we investigated the effects of reduced snow cover, fire and drought on the density and diversity of germinants from soil seed banks of two high-altitude plant communities: a tall alpine herbfield and a treeline ecotone.<br><br>METHODS: In Autumn 2020, we collected soil samples and characterized the standing vegetation of both communities at Kosciuszko National Park, Australia. Then, we employed a factorial experiment and subjected the soil samples to a series of manipulative treatments using greenhouse studies.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: The treeline had a larger and more diverse soil seed bank than the herbfield. A reduction in snow had a negative effect on the number of germinants in the herbfield and increased the dissimilarity with the standing vegetation, while the treeline responses were mainly neutral. Fire did not significantly affect the number of germinants but decreased the evenness values in both communities. The drought treatment reduced the number and richness of germinants and increased the dissimilarity with the standing vegetation in both communities. Plant functional forms explained some of the detected effects but seed functional traits did not.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that simulated climate change will affect plant recruitment from soil seed banks in a variety of ways. Changes in snow cover, incidences of fire and drought may be key drivers of germination from the soil seed bank and therefore the future composition of alpine plant communities.}, }
@article {pmid38011607, year = {2023}, author = {Bernicker, E and Averbuch, SD and Edge, S and Kamboj, J and Khuri, FR and Pierce, JY and Schiller, J and Sirohi, B and Thomas, A and Moushey, A and Phillips, J and Hendricks, C}, title = {Climate Change and Cancer Care: A Policy Statement From ASCO.}, journal = {JCO oncology practice}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {OP2300637}, doi = {10.1200/OP.23.00637}, pmid = {38011607}, issn = {2688-1535}, }
@article {pmid38011223, year = {2023}, author = {Abrham, Y and Zeng, S and Tenney, R and Davidson, C and Yao, E and Kloth, C and Dalton, S and Arjomandi, M}, title = {Effect of a single one-hour teaching session about environmental pollutants and climate change on the understanding and behavioral choices of adolescents: The BREATHE pilot randomized controlled trial.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {e0291199}, pmid = {38011223}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; Humans ; Female ; Adolescent ; Child ; Male ; Pilot Projects ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Pollutants ; Students ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Despite the wealth of scientific information on the health effects of air pollution, the adult public's lifestyle continues to be largely detrimental towards the environment.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the study was to determine whether a short interactive teaching session on air pollution could shift reported behavioral choices of adolescents towards environmentally friendlier options.<br><br>METHODS: We performed a pilot randomized control trial in which eighth-grade students were randomized to receive a one-hour script-based teaching on either the effects of air pollution on lung health (intervention group) or the role of vaccination in public health (active control group). The enrolled students completed a survey (15 multiple-choice questions; five targeting understanding (score range 5 to 20); ten targeting behavioral choices (score range 10 to 38) newly designed for this study to evaluate their understanding and predict their future behavior towards air pollution immediately before, immediately after, and one month after the teaching sessions.<br><br>RESULTS: Seventy-seven students (age = 13.5&#xb1;0.6 years; 50.4% female; median annual family income = $25K-$50K with 70.1% <$50K; 39 assigned to intervention group) were enrolled in the study. The teaching sessions did not result in any significant change in the participants' understanding domain scores in either the intervention or the control groups. However, the intervention (air pollution) teaching session resulted in a statistically significant increase in behavior domain score from baseline to immediately post-teaching, which continued to be present at one-month follow-up (mean &#xb1; standard deviation of score change immediately after = 1.7&#xb1;3.3; score change 1-month after = 2.5&#xb1;3.2; P<0.001; minimally important difference = 1.0).<br><br>DISCUSSION: This pilot study highlights the potential of a short one-time teaching session in promoting environmentally friendly behavior choices among adolescents.}, }
@article {pmid38010720, year = {2023}, author = {D'Souza, J and Samuel, G}, title = {Clinical Research Risks, Climate Change, and Human Health.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {330}, number = {23}, pages = {2247-2248}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2023.23724}, pmid = {38010720}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Biomedical Research ; *Health ; Risk ; }, }
@article {pmid38008724, year = {2023}, author = {Guiquan, S and Jiali, F and Shuai, G and Wenya, H and Xiangkun, K and Sheng, Z and Yueling, Z and Xuelian, J}, title = {Geographic distribution and impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats of Rhamnus utilis Decne in China.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {592}, pmid = {38008724}, issn = {1471-2229}, support = {2022BS14//The Doctoral Fund of Weifang University/ ; 2019BS09//The Doctoral Fund of Weifang University/ ; 51709203//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; ZR2022ME033//Shandong Provincial Natural Science Fund of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Rhamnus ; Ecosystem ; China ; Forests ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Rhamnus utilis Decne (Rhamnaceae) is an ecologically and economically important tree species. The growing market demands and recent anthropogenic impacts to R. utilis forests has negatively impacted its populations severely. However, little is known about the potential distribution of this species and environmental factors that affect habitat suitability for this species. By using 219 occurrence records along with 51 environmental factors, present and future suitable habitats were estimated for R. utilis using Maxent modeling; the important environmental factors affecting its distribution were analyzed.<br><br>RESULTS: January water vapor pressure, normalized difference vegetation index, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the warmest quarter represented the critical factors explaining the environmental requirements of R. utilis. The potential habitat of R. utilis included most provinces from central to southeast China. Under the climate change scenario SSP 245, Maxent predicted a cumulative loss of ca. 0.73&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[5] km[2] in suitable habitat for R. utilis during 2041-2060 while an increase of ca. 0.65&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[5] km[2] occurred during 2081-2100. Furthermore, under this climate change scenario, the suitable habitat will geographically expand to higher elevations.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The findings of our study provide a foundation for targeted conservation efforts and inform future research on R. utilis. By considering the identified environmental factors and anticipating the potential impacts of climate change, conservation strategies can be developed to preserve and restore suitable habitats for R. utilis. Protecting this species is not only crucial for maintaining biodiversity but also for sustaining the economic benefits associated with its ecological services.}, }
@article {pmid38008314, year = {2023}, author = {Kokotović, I and Veseli, M and Ložek, F and Karačić, Z and Rožman, M and Previšić, A}, title = {Pharmaceuticals and endocrine disrupting compounds modulate adverse effects of climate change on resource quality in freshwater food webs.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {168751}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168751}, pmid = {38008314}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Freshwater biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services are changing at an unprecedented rate due to the impacts of vast number of stressors overlapping in time and space. Our study aimed at characterizing individual and combined impacts of pollution with pharmaceuticals (PhACs) and endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) and increased water temperature (as a proxy for climate change) on primary producers and first level consumers in freshwaters. We conducted a microcosm experiment with a simplified freshwater food web containing moss (Bryophyta) and shredding caddisfly larvae of Micropterna nycterobia (Trichoptera). The experiment was conducted with four treatments; control (C), increased water temperature + 4 °C (T2), emerging contaminants' mix (EC = 15 PhACs &amp; 5 EDCs), and multiple stressor treatment (MS = EC + T2). Moss exhibited an overall mild response to selected stressors and their combination. Higher water temperature negatively affected development of M. nycterobia through causing earlier emergence of adults and changes in their lipidome profiles. Pollution with PhACs and EDCs had higher impact on metabolism of all life stages of M. nycterobia than warming. Multiple stressor effect was recorded in M. nycterobia adults in metabolic response, lipidome profiles and as a decrease in total lipid content. Sex specific response to stressor effects was observed in adults, with impacts on metabolome generally more pronounced in females, and on lipidome in males. Thus, our study highlights the variability of both single and multiple stressor impacts on different traits, different life stages and sexes of a single insect species. Furthermore, our research suggests that the combined impacts of warming, linked to climate change, and contamination with PhACs and EDCs could have adverse consequences on the population dynamics of aquatic insects. Additionally, these findings point to a potential decrease in the quality of resources available for both aquatic and potentially terrestrial food webs.}, }
@article {pmid38007398, year = {2023}, author = {Wei, X and Xu, D and Liu, Q and Wu, Y and Zhuo, Z}, title = {Predicting the potential distribution range of Batocera horsfieldi under CMIP6 climate change using the MaxEnt model.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toad209}, pmid = {38007398}, issn = {1938-291X}, support = {2022NSFSCO986//Sichuan Province Science and Technology Support Program/ ; 20A007//China West Normal University Support Program/ ; }, abstract = {Batocera horsfieldi (Hope) (Coleoptera, Cerambycidae, Batocera) is an important wood-boring pest in China, mainly affecting natural forests, economic forests, urban gardens, and green landscapes. In this study, based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS, we combined 216 distribution records of B. horsfieldi with 11 selected key environmental variables to predict its potential suitable distribution under current climate data (1970-2000) and 3 climate emission scenarios from the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The results showed that monthly mean diurnal temperature ranges (bio2), isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), annual precipitation (bio12), precipitation of the wettest month (bio13), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) (bio15), and altitude were the key environmental variables influencing the potential distribution of B. horsfieldi. In the future scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, the areas of high, moderate, and low suitable distribution areas have varied to different extents. However, under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (2050s), there is an observable increase in the areas of high, moderate, and low suitability. The total area of the suitable area reaches 160.88 × 104 km2 and is also shifting toward higher latitudes and altitudes. This study provides scientific reference for future pest control by predicting B. horsfieldi's potential distribution. A "graded response" detection and early warning system and prevention and control strategies can be formulated based on the potential suitable areas to address this pest challenge effectively.}, }
@article {pmid38007294, year = {2023}, author = {Schneider, S and Niederberger, M and Kurowski, L and Bade, L}, title = {How can outdoor sports protect themselves against climate change-related health risks? - A prevention model based on an expert Delphi study.}, journal = {Journal of science and medicine in sport}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jsams.2023.11.002}, pmid = {38007294}, issn = {1878-1861}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To systematically develop an adaptation model to reduce climate change-related health risks for outdoor athletes.<br><br>DESIGN: Delphi Method study.<br><br>METHODS: A classic asynchronous Delphi study was conducted with a total of three survey rounds. 24 experts from the eight largest outdoor sport associations by membership in the German Olympic Sports Confederation were included as well as 24 medical experts with expertise in sport medicine, internal medicine, allergology, dermatology, infectiology, or toxicology. Based on open-ended questions, panelists were asked to consider prevention measures for sport organizations and clubs. Free text responses were analyzed by qualitative content analysis according to Mayring.<br><br>RESULTS: Experts recommended establishing the following eight fields of prevention measures: technical and structural measures; organizational measures; personalized measures; basic, advanced, and continuing education; concepts of action, warning concepts, and financial concepts; cooperation and coordination; campaigns; and evaluation measures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The pyramid model presented in this study systematizes possible sport-specific adaptation measures on climate change by empirical aggregation of knowledge from scientists, sport organizations, clubs, trainers, and professional athletes. To assess the effectiveness of these prevention measures, sport organizations may incorporate them not only into broader operations but also everyday training routines.}, }
@article {pmid38007139, year = {2023}, author = {Visscher, AM and Vanek, S and Huaraca, J and Mendoza, J and Ccanto, R and Meza, K and Olivera, E and Scurrah, M and Wellstein, C and Bonari, G and Zerbe, S and Fonte, SJ}, title = {Traditional soil fertility management ameliorates climate change impacts on traditional Andean crops within smallholder farming systems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {168725}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168725}, pmid = {38007139}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global changes, particularly rising temperatures, threaten food security in smallholder mountain communities by impacting the suitability of cultivation areas for many crops. Land-use intensification, associated with agrochemical use and tillage, threatens soil health and overall agroecosystem resilience. In the Andean region, farmers often cultivate crops at multiple elevations. Warming climates have led to a shift in cultivation upslope, but this is not feasible in many areas. Traditional soil fertility management practices together with a focus on traditional (orphan) crops offers promise to cope with rapid climate warming in the region. To understand the impacts of warming and changing nutrient management, we established two side-by-side experiments using the traditional Andean crops Oxalis tuberosa (Oca) and Lupinus mutabilis (Tarwi) at three elevations, each with two fertility treatments (organic and synthetic). Soil and climate data (i.e., temperature and precipitation) were collected throughout the growing season, and crop performance was evaluated through impacts on yield and other growth metrics (e.g., biomass, pest incidence). We used two-way ANOVA to assess the influence of site (elevation) and management type (organic vs. synthetic) on crop performance. Results indicated that warmer climates (i.e., lowest elevation) negatively impact the production and performance of O. tuberosa, but that organic fertilization (sheep manure) can help maintain crop yield and biomass production in warmer conditions relatively to synthetic nutrient inputs. In contrast, L. mutabilis showed accelerated growth in warmer conditions, but grain yield and biomass production were not significantly affected by site and showed no interaction with nutrient management. Our findings highlight that climate warming represents a serious threat to small-scale crop production in the Peruvian Andes and could cause severe declines in the production of locally important crops. Additionally, the continued reliance on traditional crops with organic inputs, instead of synthetic fertilizers, may help support agricultural productivity and resilience under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38006766, year = {2023}, author = {Lindhe, N and Bengtsson, A and Byggeth, E and Engström, J and Lundin, M and Ludvigsson, M and Aminoff, V and Berg, M and Andersson, G}, title = {Tailored internet-delivered cognitive behavioral therapy for individuals experiencing psychological distress associated with climate change: A pilot randomized controlled trial.}, journal = {Behaviour research and therapy}, volume = {171}, number = {}, pages = {104438}, doi = {10.1016/j.brat.2023.104438}, pmid = {38006766}, issn = {1873-622X}, mesh = {Humans ; Quality of Life ; Climate Change ; Pilot Projects ; *Cognitive Behavioral Therapy/methods ; *Psychological Distress ; Internet ; Treatment Outcome ; }, abstract = {Even among people who are not directly impacted by the consequences of climate change, perceptions about the ongoing crisis can have a negative effect on mental health and well-being. However, empirical evidence on interventions aiming to provide support is currently scarce. In order to address this issue, a pilot-RCT was carried out to investigate the effects of a novel ICBT treatment program. Sixty participants (23-73 years) were recruited and randomly allocated to eight weeks of therapist-supported ICBT (n = 30) or a wait-list control condition (n = 30). Measures of depressive symptoms, stress, and quality of life were used as primary outcomes, while measures of anxiety, insomnia, climate change-related distress, pro-environmental behaviour, and alcohol use were used as secondary outcomes. The treatment group had moderate to large between-group effects compared to the waitlist group on measures of depression (d = 0.87), stress (d = 0.76), quality of life (d = 0.79) and climate change-related distress (d = 0.79). There were no significant between-group differences on the other outcome measures. The results from this pilot-RCT indicate that individually tailored ICBT can be an effective way to reduce psychological distress associated with climate change without reducing pro-environmental behaviour.}, }
@article {pmid38006644, year = {2024}, author = {Dong, X and Ju, T and Shi, L and Luo, C and Gan, L and Wang, Z and Wang, W and He, H and Zhang, S and Zhou, Y and An, M and Jiang, H and Shao, J and Xiang, T}, title = {Evaluating effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of an atypical cavefish Onychostoma macrolepis.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {350}, number = {}, pages = {119643}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119643}, pmid = {38006644}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Temperature ; China ; }, abstract = {Comprehending endangered species' spatial distribution in response to global climate change (GCC) is of great importance for formulating adaptive management, conservation, and restoration plans. However, it is regrettable that previous studies mainly focused on geoclimatic species, while neglected climate-sensitive subterranean taxa to a large extent, which clearly hampered the discovery of universal principles. In view of this, taking the endemic troglophile riverine fish Onychostoma macrolepis (Bleeker, 1871) as an example, we constructed a MaxEnt (maximum-entropy) model to predict how the spatial distribution of this endangered fish would respond to future climate changes (three Global Climate Models × two Shared Socio-economic Pathways × three future time nodes) based on painstakingly collected species occurrence data and a set of bioclimatic variables, including WorldClim and ENVIREM. Model results showed that variables related to temperature rather than precipitation were more important in determining the geographic distribution of this rare and endemic fish. In addition, the suitable areas and their distribution centroids of O. macrolepis would shrink (average: 20,901.75 km[2]) and move toward the northeast or northwest within the study area (i.e. China). Linking our results with this species' limited dispersion potential and unique habitat requirements (i.e. karst landform is essential), we thus recommended in situ conservation to protect this relict.}, }
@article {pmid38005811, year = {2023}, author = {Yuan, Z and Cheng, Y and Mi, L and Xie, J and Xi, J and Mao, Y and Xu, S and Wang, Z and Wang, S}, title = {Effects of Ecological Restoration and Climate Change on Herbaceous and Arboreal Phenology.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {38005811}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2019YFE0116500//Intergovernmental International Cooperation in Science and Technology Innovation/ ; U2243202//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; IDS2022JY-8//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; }, abstract = {With global climate change, changes in vegetation phenology have become increasingly evident. Horqin Sandy Land is located near the eastern part of the West Liaohe River. It is the largest sandy land in China and its ecological environment is fragile. Investigating the changes in vegetation phenology in these sandy areas and determining the relationship between vegetation phenology and meteorological factors are of great importance for predicting the impacts of future climate change and understanding the response mechanisms of ecosystems. In this study, we used the time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 2000 to 2021 and extracted the vegetation phenology in the Horqin Sandy Land using high-order curve fitting methods, including the start date of the growing season (SOS), the end date of the growing season (EOS), and the length of the growing season (LOS). We analyzed their temporal variation and used partial correlation analysis to determine their relationship with meteorological factors (temperature and precipitation). In addition, we compared the phenology and microclimate of forest and grassland within the study area. In the Horqin Sandy Land, the vegetation SOS was concentrated between the 115th and 150th day, the EOS was concentrated between the 260th and 305th day, and the LOS ranged from 125 to 190 days. Over the past 22 years, the SOS, EOS, and LOS of vegetation in the Horqin Sandy Land showed trends of delay, shift, and extension, with rates of change of 0.82 d/10a, 5.82 d/10a, and 5.00 d/10a, respectively. The start date of the growing season in the Horqin Sandy Land was mainly influenced by precipitation in April of the current year, while the end date was mainly influenced by precipitation in August of the current year. Overall, the SOS in the forested areas of the Horqin Sandy Land was slightly later than in the grasslands, but the EOS in the forested areas was significantly later than in the grasslands, resulting in a longer LOS in the forests. In addition, annual precipitation and the rate of precipitation increase were higher in the forested areas than in the grasslands, but soil temperature was higher in the grasslands than in the forests. Vegetation phenology in the Horqin Sandy Land has undergone significant changes, mainly manifested in the delayed end date of the growing season, the extended length of the growing season, and the differences between forest and grassland. This indicates that climate change has indeed affected phenological changes and provides a theoretical basis for subsequent ecological restoration and desertification prevention efforts in the region.}, }
@article {pmid38005738, year = {2023}, author = {Kemešytė, V and Statkevičiūtė, G and Norkevičienė, E and Jaškūnė, K}, title = {Italian Ryegrass as a Forage Crop for the Baltics: Opportunities and Challenges in Light of Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {38005738}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {Long-term research programme 'Genetics, biotechnology and breeding for plant biodiversity and innovative technologies'//Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry (LAMMC)/ ; }, abstract = {Grasslands are important for sustainable milk and meat production as well as for providing other ecosystem services. One of the most productive components of short-term grasslands is Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum subsp. italicum Lam.), offering high yield, excellent feed value, and high palatability to animals but low tolerance to abiotic stress. Global climate warming opens new opportunities and could be beneficial in increasing the potential of biomass production. In this study, we aimed to assess an Italian ryegrass cultivar of Lithuanian origin, 'Ugnė', for productivity and yield stability, with special emphasis on their relationship with climatic factors over a period of 14 years. The average winter temperatures and total spring precipitation explained 51% of the first-cut dry matter yield (DMY) variance. Second- and third-cut DMYs were associated with average temperature only. Italian ryegrass cv. 'Ugnė' demonstrated the potential to produce high dry matter yields after warm winters and withstand summer drought spells under Lithuanian conditions. However, mid-to-late-summer heat waves might reduce productivity and should be taken into consideration when breeding new Italian ryegrass cultivars.}, }
@article {pmid38005695, year = {2023}, author = {Hauvermale, AL and Matzke, C and Bohaliga, G and Pumphrey, MO and Steber, CM and McCubbin, AG}, title = {Development of Novel Monoclonal Antibodies to Wheat Alpha-Amylases Associated with Grain Quality Problems That Are Increasing with Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {38005695}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {n/a//Washington State Grain Commission/ ; n/a//Orville A. Vogel Wheat Research Fund/ ; n/a//USDA-ARS/ ; }, abstract = {Accurate, rapid testing platforms are essential for early detection and mitigation of late maturity α-amylase (LMA) and preharvest sprouting (PHS) in wheat. These conditions are characterized by elevated α-amylase levels and negatively impact flour quality, resulting in substantial economic losses. The Hagberg-Perten Falling Number (FN) method is the industry standard for measuring α-amylase activity in wheatmeal. However, FN does not directly detect α-amylase and has major limitations. Developing α-amylase immunoassays would potentially enable early, accurate detection regardless of testing environment. With this goal, we assessed an expression of α-amylase isoforms during seed development. Transcripts of three of the four isoforms were detected in developing and mature grain. These were cloned and used to develop E. coli expression lines expressing single isoforms. After assessing amino acid conservation between isoforms, we identified peptide sequences specific to a single isoform (TaAMY1) or that were conserved in all isoforms, to develop monoclonal antibodies with targeted specificities. Three monoclonal antibodies were developed, anti-TaAMY1-A, anti-TaAMY1-B, and anti-TaAMY1-C. All three detected endogenous α-amylase(s). Anti-TaAMY1-A was specific for TaAMY1, whereas anti-TaAMY1-C detected TaAMY1, 2, and 4. Thus, confirming that they possessed the intended specificities. All three antibodies were shown to be compatible for use with immuno-pulldown and immuno-assay applications.}, }
@article {pmid38003744, year = {2023}, author = {Wójtowicz, M and Wójtowicz, A}, title = {Significance of Direct and Indirect Impacts of Temperature Increase Driven by Climate Change on Threat to Oilseed Rape Posed by Sclerotinia sclerotiorum.}, journal = {Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {38003744}, issn = {2076-0817}, abstract = {Sclerotinia stem rot, caused by Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, threatens oilseed rape (Brassica napus) crops internationally. The development of this disease is strongly controlled by the weather, which is why global climate change is likely to influence its spread and impact. Climate change may affect the pathogen directly or indirectly via the host plant. This study investigates the potential impact of climate warming on Sclerotinia stem rot severity in oilseed rape in Poland. The aim of this investigation was to assess the relationship between the direct impact (DI) and indirect impact (II) of climate change on disease severity using the 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Under the RCP4.5 scenario, nearly 60% of the simulations performed for 16 regions in four periods (2020-2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2079, 2080-2099) showed reductions in disease severity in comparison to those conducted for 1986-2005, while under RCP 8.5, this reduction was generated for nearly 90% of the cases. The effect of the RCP scenario on clustering the regions according to the value of Sclerotinia stem rot severity was also investigated. The simulations revealed that, for all periods, the lowest disease severities are expected for Zachodniopomorskie and Pomorskie. The results obtained also show the superior effects of the II over the DI on Sclerotinia stem rot severity in the future. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the rate of IIs was greater than that of DIs for 10 regions, while under RCP8.5, this relationship was registered for 16 regions. These outcomes result from the acceleration of the oilseed rape flowering period triggered by expected temperature increases. The novelty of this study lies in a detailed analysis of the relationships between the DI and II of climate change, expressed numerically, for 16 regions in Poland. The obtained results highlight the role of the indirect impact in shaping disease severity and indicate that it should be incorporated into assessment methods of climate change effects alongside the direct impact.}, }
@article {pmid38000705, year = {2024}, author = {Suzuki, H and Takenaka, M and Tojo, K}, title = {Evolutionary history of a cold-adapted limnephilid caddisfly: Effects of climate change and topography on genetic structure.}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {191}, number = {}, pages = {107967}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2023.107967}, pmid = {38000705}, issn = {1095-9513}, mesh = {Animals ; Phylogeny ; RNA, Ribosomal, 16S ; *Insecta/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Phylogeography ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Genetic Structures ; Genetic Variation ; }, abstract = {The distribution of organisms is influenced by complex factors such as the phylogenetic evolutionary histories of species, the physiological and ecological characteristics of organisms, climate, and geographical and geohistorical features. In this study, we focused on a caddisfly, Asynarchus sachalinensis (Trichoptera: Limnephilidae), which has adapted to cold habitats. From phylogeographic analyses based on the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and 16S rRNA regions and the nuclear DNA (nDNA) 18S rRNA, 28S rRNA, carbamoyl-phosphate synthetase (CAD), elongation factor-1 alpha (EF1-α), and RNA polymerase II (POLII) regions, two distinct genetic clades were detected. Clade I was shown to be widely distributed from Sakhalin to Honshu, whereas Clade II was only distributed within Honshu. The distributions of these clades overlapped in Honshu. The habitats were located at relatively lower altitudes for Clade I and higher altitudes for Clade II. The divergence time of these clades was estimated to be during the Pleistocene, indicating that repeated climatic changes facilitated distributional shifts. Haplotype network and demographic analyses based on the mtDNA COI region showed contrasting genetic structures in the two clades. It was indicated that the population sizes of Clade I had expanded rapidly in a recent period, whereas Clade II had maintained stable population sizes. The habitats of Clade II were typically isolated and scattered at high altitudes, resulting in restricted migration and dispersal because of their discontinuous "Sky Island" habitats. The habitats of Clade I were located at relatively low altitudes, and it was assumed that the populations were continuous, which resulted in a higher frequency of migration and dispersal between populations. Thus, differences in the spatial scale of the adapted habitats of each clade may have resulted in different patterns of population connectivity and fragmentation associated with repeated climatic changes during the Pleistocene. Our study provided new insight into the distributional patterns of cold-adapted aquatic insects in the Japanese Archipelago. Furthermore, the distributional shifts predicted by ecological niche modeling under future climatic change conditions were different for each clade. Therefore, different principles are required in the assessment of each clade to predict temporal changes in their distributions.}, }
@article {pmid38000583, year = {2023}, author = {Abasi, F and Raja, NI and Mashwani, ZU and Ehsan, M and Ali, H and Shahbaz, M}, title = {Heat and Wheat: Adaptation strategies with respect to heat shock proteins and antioxidant potential; an era of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biological macromolecules}, volume = {256}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {128379}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2023.128379}, pmid = {38000583}, issn = {1879-0003}, abstract = {Extreme changes in weather including heat-wave and high-temperature fluctuations are predicted to increase in intensity and duration due to climate change. Wheat being a major staple crop is under severe threat of heat stress especially during the grain-filling stage. Widespread food insecurity underscores the critical need to comprehend crop responses to forthcoming climatic shifts, pivotal for devising adaptive strategies ensuring sustainable crop productivity. This review addresses insights concerning antioxidant, physiological, molecular impacts, tolerance mechanisms, and nanotechnology-based strategies and how wheat copes with heat stress at the reproductive stage. In this study stress resilience strategies were documented for sustainable grain production under heat stress at reproductive stage. Additionally, the mechanisms of heat resilience including gene expression, nanomaterials that trigger transcription factors, (HSPs) during stress, and physiological and antioxidant traits were explored. The most reliable method to improve plant resilience to heat stress must include nano-biotechnology-based strategies, such as the adoption of nano-fertilizers in climate-smart practices and the use of advanced molecular approaches. Notably, the novel resistance genes through advanced molecular approach and nanomaterials exhibit promise for incorporation into wheat cultivars, conferring resilience against imminent adverse environmental conditions. This review will help scientific communities in thermo-tolerance wheat cultivars and new emerging strategies to mitigate the deleterious impact of heat stress.}, }
@article {pmid37998294, year = {2023}, author = {Drumm, K and Vandermause, R}, title = {Adolescents Concerned about Climate Change: A Hermeneutic Study.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {37998294}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; Adolescent ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Hermeneutics ; Anxiety ; Mental Health ; *Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a public health threat on a global scale. Over the last two decades, research has uncovered the myriad health effects of climate change and its associated costs. The literature is also beginning to show the direct and indirect effects of climate change to be an indicator of increased adverse mental health outcomes including excessive worry, anxiety, grief, and post-traumatic stress disorder. The development of scales to measure some of these effects in adult populations has shown the critical need to understand the various ways climate change affects mental well-being in adolescent populations who are at a critical juncture in psychological development. The purposes of this study were to understand the lived experience of adolescents who are concerned about climate change and uncover the meaning of climate change concern for adolescents as informed by emerging patterns. This study utilized Hermeneutic Phenomenology as a philosophical foundation and methodological approach for data retrieval and analysis. An interview-based approach with a purposeful sample (n = 11, aged 12-17 years) revealed the multi-layered elements of climate change concern and its effects. Three patterns emerged: Climate Change as a Temporal Threat and Pressure, Awareness and Concern as a Continuum, and Experiencing Concern and Making Meaning. These findings may now inform interdisciplinary knowledge on upstream mitigation efforts and the promotion of positive outcomes relating to climate change. The need for focused educational attention to adolescent behaviors and concerns is explicated and exemplified.}, }
@article {pmid37998272, year = {2023}, author = {Tupou, T and Tiatia-Siau, J and Newport, C and Langridge, F and Tiatia, S}, title = {Is the Concept of Solastalgia Meaningful to Pacific Communities Experiencing Mental Health Distress Due to Climate Change? An Initial Exploration.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {37998272}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {19/381//Health Research Council of New Zealand/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Mental Health ; Climate Change ; *Mental Disorders ; }, abstract = {The critical inquiry is how Pacific communities themselves characterize mental distress as a result of climate change. If not solastalgia, what more suitable terms might they use? This viewpoint article aims to initiate a discourse using solastalgia as the focus for the Pacific by 1. providing a definition of solastalgia; 2. examining its application in Pacific research; 3. presenting limitations of solastalgia; and 4. assessing its appropriateness for Pacific communities. There is a dearth of research using solastalgia, particularly within Pacific communities. The Pacific region's diverse contexts may already possess terms that effectively convey place-based distress that solastalgia attempts to describe. However, the authors found that solastalgia holds limited utility in the Pacific region, primarily based on a review of the literature, which involved keyword searches in Google Scholar such as solastalgia, mental health, mental distress, wellbeing, climate change, environmental distress, displacement, and Indigenous and Pacific peoples. More importantly, the concept is limited in capturing Pacific experiences of land loss due to climate change events, particularly, as the Pacific imbues land with profound significance, intertwined with culture, identity, and wellbeing. Land loss equates to a loss of culture, identity, wellbeing, and kinship in most Pacific contexts. It is apparent that broader and more holistic approaches are required.}, }
@article {pmid37996436, year = {2023}, author = {Bergman, J and Pedersen, R&#xd8; and Lundgren, EJ and Lemoine, RT and Monsarrat, S and Pearce, EA and Schierup, MH and Svenning, JC}, title = {Worldwide Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene population declines in extant megafauna are associated with Homo sapiens expansion rather than climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {7679}, pmid = {37996436}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {813904//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 16549//Villum Fonden (Villum Foundation)/ ; DNRF173//Danmarks Grundforskningsfond (Danish National Research Foundation)/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Fossils ; Biomass ; }, abstract = {The worldwide extinction of megafauna during the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene is evident from the fossil record, with dominant theories suggesting a climate, human or combined impact cause. Consequently, two disparate scenarios are possible for the surviving megafauna during this time period - they could have declined due to similar pressures, or increased in population size due to reductions in competition or other biotic pressures. We therefore infer population histories of 139 extant megafauna species using genomic data which reveal population declines in 91% of species throughout the Quaternary period, with larger species experiencing the strongest decreases. Declines become ubiquitous 32-76 kya across all landmasses, a pattern better explained by worldwide Homo sapiens expansion than by changes in climate. We estimate that, in consequence, total megafauna abundance, biomass, and energy turnover decreased by 92-95% over the past 50,000 years, implying major human-driven ecosystem restructuring at a global scale.}, }
@article {pmid37996038, year = {2023}, author = {Sun, B and Wang, W and Liu, G and Li, H}, title = {Projecting the impact of climate change and elevated CO2 concentration on rice irrigation water requirement in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {912}, number = {}, pages = {168489}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168489}, pmid = {37996038}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations significantly affect rice growth and water consumption. Understanding the specific impacts of climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations on rice physiological phenology, crop water demand (ETC), and irrigation water requirement (IR) is of great significance for the sustainable utilization of water resources and food security. This is particularly true in China, the world's largest rice producer. In this study, with the help of two rice phenological models, the modified Penman-Monteith equation, and the paddy water balance model, we project the changes in rice phenological period, ETC, and IR in four main rice-producing regions of China in the period 2015-2100 based on the 11 GCM outputs. The results show that the rice growing period is shortened in most rice-producing regions, except for the parts of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, the trend of ETC and IR of rice varies slightly among regions in the future scenario, with almost all regions decreasing yearly except for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, where the trend is increasing. The progressively increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration has a "fertilization effect" on the crop, which can reduce the water requirements of rice. In the SSP585 scenario, the " CO2 fertilization effect" can reduce up to 8.87 × 10[8] m[3] of ETC and 6.94 × 10[8] m[3] of IR in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the period of 2090s. This study provides beneficial references to understand the response of rice ETC and IR to future climate change and CO2 concentration elevation in China and highlights that the simulation in terms of crop irrigation must account for the "CO2 fertilization effect".}, }
@article {pmid37995327, year = {2023}, author = {Matsuura, H}, title = {Biodemography as human-centered climate change research.}, journal = {Biodemography and social biology}, volume = {68}, number = {4}, pages = {113-114}, doi = {10.1080/19485565.2023.2287341}, pmid = {37995327}, issn = {1948-5573}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid37995154, year = {2023}, author = {Thawonmas, R and Hashizume, M and Kim, Y}, title = {Projections of Temperature-Related Suicide under Climate Change Scenarios in Japan.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {131}, number = {11}, pages = {117012}, pmid = {37995154}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Humans ; Temperature ; *Climate Change ; Japan/epidemiology ; *Suicide ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impact of climate change on mental health largely remains to be evaluated. Although growing evidence has reported a short-term association between suicide and temperature, future projections of temperature-attributable suicide have not been thoroughly examined.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We aimed to project the excess temperature-related suicide mortality in Japan under three climate change scenarios until the 2090s.<br><br>METHODS: Daily time series of mean temperature and the number of suicide deaths in 1973-2015 were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan. A two-stage time-stratified case-crossover analysis was used to estimate the temperature-suicide association. We obtained the modeled daily temperature series using five general circulation models under three climate change scenarios from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. We projected the excess temperature-related suicide mortality until 2099 for each scenario and evaluated the net relative changes compared with the 2010s.<br><br>RESULTS: During 1973-2015, there was a total of 1,049,592 suicides in Japan. Net increases in temperature-related excess suicide mortality were estimated under all scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was 1.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.6, 2.4] for the intermediate-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), 0.6% (95% eCI: 0.1, 1.6) for a low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), and 2.4% (95% eCI: 0.7, 3.9) for the extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5). The increases were greater the more extreme the scenarios were, with the highest increase under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5).<br><br>DISCUSSION: This study indicates that Japan may experience a net increase in excess temperature-related suicide mortality, especially under the intermediate and extreme scenarios. The findings underscore the importance of mitigation policies. Further investigations of the future impacts of climate change on mental health including suicide are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11246.}, }
@article {pmid37994913, year = {2023}, author = {Foyer, CH and Kranner, I}, title = {Plant adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {The Biochemical journal}, volume = {480}, number = {22}, pages = {1865-1869}, pmid = {37994913}, issn = {1470-8728}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Seeds ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Plants are vital to human health and well-being, as well as helping to protect the environment against the negative impacts of climate change. They are an essential part of the 'One Health' strategy that seeks to balance and optimize the health of people, animals and the environment. Crucially, plants are central to nature-based solutions to climate mitigation, not least because soil carbon storage is an attractive strategy for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and the associated climate change. Agriculture depends on genetically pure, high-quality seeds that are free from pests and pathogens and contain a required degree of genetic purity. This themed collection addresses key questions in the field encompassing the biochemical mechanisms that underlie plant responses and adaptations to a changing climate. This collection encompasses an analysis of the biochemistry and molecular mechanisms underpinning crop and forest resilience, together with considerations of plant adaptations to climate change-associated stresses, including drought, floods and heatwaves, and the increased threats posed by pathogens and pests.}, }
@article {pmid37993336, year = {2024}, author = {Sun, W and Li, J and Yu, R and Li, N and Zhang, Y}, title = {Exploring changes of precipitation extremes under climate change through global variable-resolution modeling.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {69}, number = {2}, pages = {237-247}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2023.11.013}, pmid = {37993336}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {Understanding the responses of precipitation extremes to global climate change remains limited owing to their poor representations in models and complicated interactions with multi-scale systems. Here we take the record-breaking precipitation over China in 2021 as an example, and study its changes under three different climate scenarios through a developed pseudo-global-warming (PGW) experimental framework with 60-3 km variable-resolution global ensemble modeling. Compared to the present climate, the precipitation extreme under a warmer (cooler) climate increased (decreased) in intensity, coverage, and total amount at a range of 24.3%-37.8% (18.7%-56.1%). With the help of the proposed PGW experimental framework, we further reveal the impacts of the multi-scale system interactions in climate change on the precipitation extreme. Under the warmer climate, large-scale water vapor transport converged from double typhoons and the subtropical high marched into central China, enhancing the convective energy and instability on the leading edge of the transport belt. As a result, the mesoscale convective system (MCS) that directly contributed to the precipitation extreme became stronger than that in the present climate. On the contrary, the cooler climate displayed opposite changing characteristics relative to the warmer climate, ranging from the large-scale systems to local environments and to the MCS. In summary, our study provides a promising approach to scientifically assess the response of precipitation extremes to climate change, making it feasible to perform ensemble simulations while investigating the multi-scale system interactions over the globe.}, }
@article {pmid37990128, year = {2023}, author = {Eustachio Colombo, P and Elinder, LS and Nykänen, EA and Patterson, E and Lindroos, AK and Parlesak, A}, title = {Developing a novel optimisation approach for keeping heterogeneous diets healthy and within planetary boundaries for climate change.}, journal = {European journal of clinical nutrition}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37990128}, issn = {1476-5640}, support = {2016-00353//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas (Swedish Research Council Formas)/ ; 2016-00353//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas (Swedish Research Council Formas)/ ; 2016-00353//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas (Swedish Research Council Formas)/ ; 2016-00353//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas (Swedish Research Council Formas)/ ; 2016-00353//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas (Swedish Research Council Formas)/ ; 2016-00353//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas (Swedish Research Council Formas)/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Current dietary habits have substantial negative impacts on the health of people and the planet. This study aimed to develop a novel approach for achieving health-promoting and climate-friendly dietary recommendations for a broad range of consumers.<br><br>SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Hierarchical clustering analysis was combined with linear programming to design nutritionally adequate, health-promoting, climate-friendly and culturally acceptable diets using Swedish national dietary data (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;1797). Diets were optimised for the average consumption of the total population as well as for the dietary clusters.<br><br>RESULTS: Three dietary clusters were identified. All optimised diets had lower shares of animal-source foods and contained higher amounts of plant-based foods. These dietary shifts reduced climate impacts by up to 53% while leaving much of the diet unchanged. The optimised diets of the three clusters differed from the optimised diet of the total population. All optimised diets differed considerably from the food-group pattern of the EAT-Lancet diet.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The novel cluster-based optimisation approach was able to generate alternatives that may be more acceptable and realistic for a sustainable diet across different groups in the population.}, }
@article {pmid37990088, year = {2023}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Is it too late to keep global warming below 1.5 °C? The challenge in 7 charts.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-03601-6}, pmid = {37990088}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37989722, year = {2024}, author = {Yuan, M and Na, M and Hicks, LC and Rousk, J}, title = {Limiting resources for soil microbial growth in climate change simulation treatments in the subarctic.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {105}, number = {1}, pages = {e4210}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.4210}, pmid = {37989722}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {KAW 2022.0175//Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse/ ; 2020-03858//The Swedish Research Council Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det/ ; 2020-04083//The Swedish Research Council Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det/ ; 4.3-2021-00164//Swedish Research Council's/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; Tundra ; Arctic Regions ; Plants ; Carbon ; Nitrogen ; Bacteria ; }, abstract = {The microbial use of resources to sustain life and reproduce influences for example, decomposition and plant nutrient provisioning. The study of "limiting factors" has shed light on the interaction between plants and their environment. Here, we investigated whether carbon (C), nitrogen (N), or phosphorus (P) was limiting for soil microorganisms in a subarctic tundra heath, and how changes in resource availability associated with climate change affected this. We studied samples in which changes in resource availability due to climate warming were simulated by the addition of birch litter and/or inorganic N. To these soils, we supplied factorial C (as glucose), N (as NH4 NO3), and P (as KH2 PO4 /K2 HPO4) additions ("limiting factor assays," LFA), to determine the limiting factors. The combination of C and P induced large growth responses in all soils and, combined with a systematic tendency for growth increases by C, this suggested that total microbial growth was primarily limited by C and secondarily by P. The C limitation was alleviated by the field litter treatment and strengthened by N fertilization. The microbial growth response to the LFA-C and LFA-P addition was strongest in the field-treatment that combined litter and N addition. We also found that bacteria were closer to P limitation than fungi. Our results suggest that, under a climate change scenario, increased C availability resulting from Arctic greening, treeline advance, and shrubification will reduce the microbial C limitation, while increased N availability resulting from warming will intensify the microbial C limitation. Our results also suggest that the synchronous increase of both C and N availability might lead to a progressive P limitation of microbial growth, primarily driven by bacteria being closer to P limitation. These shifts in microbial resource limitation might lead to a microbial targeting of the limiting element from organic matter, and also trigger competition for nutrients between plants and microorganisms, thus modulating the productivity of the ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid37989307, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, S and Zhang, C and Cai, W and Bai, Y and Callaghan, M and Chang, N and Chen, B and Chen, H and Cheng, L and Dai, H and Dai, X and Fan, W and Fang, X and Gao, T and Geng, Y and Guan, D and Hu, Y and Hua, J and Huang, C and Huang, H and Huang, J and Huang, X and Ji, JS and Jiang, Q and Jiang, X and Kiesewetter, G and Li, T and Liang, L and Lin, B and Lin, H and Liu, H and Liu, Q and Liu, X and Liu, Z and Liu, Z and Liu, Y and Lu, B and Lu, C and Luo, Z and Ma, W and Mi, Z and Ren, C and Romanello, M and Shen, J and Su, J and Sun, Y and Sun, X and Tang, X and Walawender, M and Wang, C and Wang, Q and Wang, R and Warnecke, L and Wei, W and Wen, S and Xie, Y and Xiong, H and Xu, B and Yan, Y and Yang, X and Yao, F and Yu, L and Yuan, J and Zeng, Y and Zhang, J and Zhang, L and Zhang, R and Zhang, S and Zhang, S and Zhao, M and Zheng, D and Zhou, H and Zhou, J and Zhou, Z and Luo, Y and Gong, P}, title = {The 2023 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: taking stock for a thriving future.}, journal = {The Lancet. Public health}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e978-e995}, doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(23)00245-1}, pmid = {37989307}, issn = {2468-2667}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Research Report ; China ; }, }
@article {pmid37989261, year = {2023}, author = {Bone, A and Kaur, P and Capon, A and Lin, VK and Tu'itahi, S and Bowen, K and Watts, N and Fisher, JR and Stewart, PJ and Evans, H and Lo, SN}, title = {Advancing the Australian global health community's commitment to climate change and global health.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {219}, number = {11}, pages = {533-534}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.52166}, pmid = {37989261}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Australia ; }, }
@article {pmid37988926, year = {2024}, author = {Metin, ZE and Çelik, &#xd6;M and Koç, N}, title = {Relationship between adherence to the Mediterranean diet, sustainable and healthy eating behaviors, and climate change awareness: A cross-sectional study from Turkey.}, journal = {Nutrition (Burbank, Los Angeles County, Calif.)}, volume = {118}, number = {}, pages = {112266}, doi = {10.1016/j.nut.2023.112266}, pmid = {37988926}, issn = {1873-1244}, mesh = {Adult ; Humans ; *Diet, Mediterranean ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Climate Change ; Turkey ; Feeding Behavior ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between adherence to the Mediterranean diet, sustainable and healthy eating behaviors, and climate change awareness in adults.<br><br>METHODS: This descriptive and cross-sectional study was conducted with 1797 adults ages 19-65 y. Demographic characteristics, anthropometric measurements, adherence to the Mediterranean diet, sustainable and healthy eating behaviors, and climate change awareness were ascertained through a questionnaire.<br><br>RESULTS: The mean age of the individuals was 27.5 &#xb1; 11.76 y, and 50.5% of the participants were adherent to the Mediterranean diet. A statistically significant difference was found between individuals who did and did not adhere to the Mediterranean diet in terms of age, income status, total score and subscores on the Sustainable and Healthy Eating Behaviors Scale, and subscores for information on climate change causes (P < 0.05). A statistically significant positive correlation was found between the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Scale (MEDAS) total score, the Sustainable and Healthy Eating Behaviors Scale total score and subscores, and the Climate Change Awareness Scale total score and subscores (P < 0.05). It was determined that sex, education level, and income status affected the Climate Change Awareness Scale total score (P < 0.05). It was determined that age, income status, the Sustainable and Healthy Eating Behaviors Scale total score, and the Climate Change Awareness Scale total score affected the MEDAS total score (P < 0.05). Also, it was determined that age, sex, education level, MEDAS total score, and Climate Change Awareness Scale total score affected the Sustainable and Healthy Eating Behaviors Scale total score (P < 0.05).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study showed a significant effect of climate change awareness on sustainable and healthy eating behaviors and adherence to the Mediterranean diet.}, }
@article {pmid37987538, year = {2023}, author = {Boyles, JG and Brack, V and Marshall, KE and Brack, D}, title = {Shifts in population density centers of a hibernating mammal driven by conflicting effects of climate change and disease.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e17035}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17035}, pmid = {37987538}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {Various//Indiana Department of Natural Resources/ ; Various//United States Fish and Wildlife Service/ ; Various//Environmental Solutions and Innovations, Inc./ ; RGPIN-2019-04239//National Sciences and Engineering Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Populations wax and wane over time in response to an organism's interactions with abiotic and biotic forces. Numerous studies demonstrate that fluctuations in local populations can lead to shifts in relative population densities across the geographic range of a species over time. Fewer studies attempt to disentangle the causes of such shifts. Over four decades (1983-2022), we monitored populations of hibernating Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) in two areas separated by ~110 km. The number of bats hibernating in the northern area increased from 1983 to 2011, while populations in the southern area remained relatively constant. We used simulation models and long-term weather data to demonstrate the duration of time bats must rely on stored fat during hibernation has decreased in both areas over that period, but at a faster rate in the northern area. Likewise, increasing autumn and spring temperatures shortened the periods of sporadic prey (flying insect) availability at the beginning and end of hibernation. Climate change thus increased the viability of northern hibernacula for an increasing number of bats by decreasing energetic costs of hibernation. Then in 2011, white-nose syndrome (WNS), a disease of hibernating bats that increases energetic costs of hibernation, was detected in the area. From 2011 to 2022, the population rapidly decreased in the northern area and increased in the southern area, completely reversing the northerly shift in population densities associated with climate change. Energy balance during hibernation is the singular link explaining the northerly shift under a changing climate and the southerly shift in response to a novel disease. Continued population persistence suggests that bats may mitigate many impacts of WNS by hibernating farther south, where insects are available longer each year.}, }
@article {pmid37986055, year = {2023}, author = {Nabi, MH and Hasan, M and Chowdhury, AT and Naz, F and Hossian, M}, title = {The impact of climate change on the lives and livelihoods of readymade garment (RMG) workers: an exploratory study in selected readymade garment factories in Bangladesh.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {2292}, pmid = {37986055}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Humans ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Bangladesh/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Workplace ; Industry ; Clothing ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of resources focusing on the climate change experience of readymade garment (RMG) workers in developing countries such as Bangladesh. Therefore, this mixed method approach aims to understand the distinctive types of climate change experiences from a health and occupational perspective, along with the consequences of these changes among RMG workers in Bangladesh.<br><br>METHODS: The study was conducted from January 2022 and February 2022 where the quantitative data were collected from 200 RMG workers in 10 randomly selected garments and two focus group discussions took place with 20 conveniently selected RMG workers. The key informants were relevant stakeholders in the industry. Quantitative findings were reported using descriptive methods and qualitative findings were analysed using a content analysis approach.<br><br>RESULT: A total of 200 RMG workers were included in the study of which the majority belonged to the age group of 26-30 years (44%), were male (55%), worked in a compliant factory (70%), and were machine operators (79%). Half of the respondents experienced damage from natural disasters (51%), but only approximately 37% received humanitarian help. Migration and urbanisation were among the aftermath of the damage caused by e natural disasters, and 42% were forced to shift their homes due to natural disasters. Competition in the job market increased, and the owners had the opportunity to take on employees at a reduced salary. The respondents flagged climate change as a major contributor to their disease patterns. More than three-quarters of the respondents became sick because of increased heat while working; however, only half received any treatment.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Employee participation in hazard recognition, employer preparedness, prevention through design, research, surveillance, and upholding workplace ethics and standards can be the answers to climate change problems for readymade garment workers.}, }
@article {pmid37984031, year = {2023}, author = {Derx, J and Müller-Thomy, H and Kılıç, HS and Cervero-Arago, S and Linke, R and Lindner, G and Walochnik, J and Sommer, R and Komma, J and Farnleitner, AH and Blaschke, AP}, title = {A probabilistic-deterministic approach for assessing climate change effects on infection risks downstream of sewage emissions from CSOs.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {247}, number = {}, pages = {120746}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.120746}, pmid = {37984031}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Sewage ; *Cryptosporidiosis ; *Cryptosporidium ; Climate Change ; Water Quality ; *Giardiasis ; Giardia ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {The discharge of pathogens into urban recreational water bodies during combined sewer overflows (CSOs) pose a potential threat for public health which may increase in the future due to climate change. Improved methods are needed for predicting the impact of these effects on the microbiological urban river water quality and infection risks during recreational use. The aim of this study was to develop a novel probabilistic-deterministic modelling approach for this purpose building on physically plausible generated future rainfall time series. The approach consists of disaggregation and validation of daily precipitation time series from 21 regional climate models for a reference period (1971-2000, C20), a near-term future period (2021-2050, NTF) and a long-term future period (2071-2100, LTF) into sub-daily scale, and predicting the concentrations of enterococci and Giardia and Cryptosporidium, and infection risks during recreational use in the river downstream of the sewage emissions from CSOs. The approach was tested for an urban river catchment in Austria which is used for recreational activities (i.e. swimming, playing, wading, hand-to-mouth contact). According to a worst-case scenario (i.e. children bathing in the river), the 95th percentile infection risks for Giardia and Cryptosporidium range from 0.08 % in winter to 8 % per person and exposure event in summer for C20. The infection risk increase in the future is up to 0.8 log10 for individual scenarios. The results imply that measures to prevent CSOs may be needed to ensure sustainable water safety. The approach is promising for predicting the effect of climate change on urban water safety requirements and for supporting the selection of sustainable mitigation measures. Future studies should focus on reducing the uncertainty of the predictions at local scale.}, }
@article {pmid37982823, year = {2023}, author = {Fischer, D}, title = {Come hell or high water: climate change through the lens of neurocritical care.}, journal = {Intensive care medicine}, volume = {49}, number = {12}, pages = {1526-1528}, pmid = {37982823}, issn = {1432-1238}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Water ; Critical Care ; }, }
@article {pmid37982393, year = {2023}, author = {Stoffers, J and Muris, J}, title = {Climate change is a health issue. The general practitioner and planetary health.}, journal = {The European journal of general practice}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {2277569}, doi = {10.1080/13814788.2023.2277569}, pmid = {37982393}, issn = {1751-1402}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *General Practitioners ; }, }
@article {pmid37982350, year = {2023}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Zhang, Y}, title = {The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australia a world leader in neglecting its responsibilities.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {219}, number = {11}, pages = {528-529}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.52152}, pmid = {37982350}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Global Health ; Australia ; }, }
@article {pmid37981836, year = {2023}, author = {Kalhoff, H and Sinningen, K and Belgardt, A and Kersting, M and Luecke, T}, title = {Climate change and fluid status in children: early education as one response to an emerging public health problem.}, journal = {Public health nutrition}, volume = {26}, number = {12}, pages = {2891-2894}, pmid = {37981836}, issn = {1475-2727}, mesh = {Infant ; Child ; Humans ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Global Warming ; Forecasting ; Water ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: As global warming intensifies, residents of temperate regions will also face heat waves in the near future. Food habits are one component in addressing the global challenge of climate change. However, water, the most important food for humans, has not been adequately addressed.<br><br>DESIGN: For this commentary, on the one hand, publications on the increasing heat stress of children were consulted. On the other hand, publications on the special demands of children's temperature regulation in hot environments on fluid balance were analysed.<br><br>SETTING: The situation of young children in care facilities on days with heat stress is presented as a scenario. In this way, the effects of climatic changes on fluid balance can be estimated and measures to reduce heat stress and stabilise the fluid balance of children can be developed.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: For this analysis, first, infants will be considered in order to identify their specific fluid needs. Second, the possibilities for caregivers to improve fluid intake and train appropriate drinking habits already in infancy will be highlighted.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change should be included in recommendations on hydration for children. The need to adapt drinking habits requires educational approaches to weather and water - starting in early childhood care.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In the face of rapid climate change, countries must act now by protecting, preparing and prioritising the high-risk group of children. Particular focus should be placed on supporting adequate hydration.}, }
@article {pmid37981144, year = {2024}, author = {Beca-Carretero, P and Winters, G and Teichberg, M and Procaccini, G and Schneekloth, F and Zambrano, RH and Chiquillo, K and Reuters, H}, title = {Climate change and the presence of invasive species will threaten the persistence of the Mediterranean seagrass community.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {910}, number = {}, pages = {168675}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168675}, pmid = {37981144}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Introduced Species ; Climate Change ; *Alismatales ; Ecosystem ; *Hydrocharitaceae ; Mediterranean Sea ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean Sea has been experiencing rapid increases in temperature and salinity triggering its tropicalization. Additionally, its connection with the Red Sea has been favouring the establishment of non-native species. In this study, we investigated the effects of predicted climate change and the introduction of invasive seagrass species (Halophila stipulacea) on the native Mediterranean seagrass community (Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa) by applying a novel ecological and spatial model with different configurations and parameter settings based on a Cellular Automata (CA). The proposed models use a discrete (stepwise) representation of space and time by executing deterministic and probabilistic rules that develop complex dynamic processes. Model applications were run under two climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) projected from 2020 to 2100 in four different regions within the Mediterranean. Results indicate that the slow-growing P. oceanica will be highly vulnerable to climate change, suffering vast declines in its abundance. However, the results also show that western and colder areas of the Mediterranean Sea might represent refuge areas for this species. Cymodocea nodosa has been reported to exhibit resilience to predicted climate scenarios; however, it has shown habitat regression in the warmest predicted regions in the easternmost part of the basin. Our models indicate that H. stipulacea will thrive under projected climate scenarios, facilitating its spread across the basin. Also, H. stipulacea grew at the expense of C. nodosa, limiting the distribution of the latter, and eventually displacing this native species. Additionally, simulations demonstrated that areas from which P. oceanica meadows disappear would be partially covered by C. nodosa and H. stipulacea. These outcomes project that the Mediterranean seagrass community will experience a transition from long-lived, large and slow-growing species to small and fast-growing species as climate change progresses.}, }
@article {pmid37981133, year = {2024}, author = {Bianucci, P and Sordo-Ward, A and Lama-Pedrosa, B and Garrote, L}, title = {How do environmental flows impact on water availability under climate change scenarios in European basins?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {911}, number = {}, pages = {168566}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168566}, pmid = {37981133}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Environmental flows (Qeco) facilitate a good ecological status of fluvial ecosystems, but they usually represent a constraint for water uses. Qeco flow regime should not only be based on the minimum flows, but it should also account their variability. It is expected that climate change impact on some hydrological systems diminishing the natural water resources and stressing the river ecosystems. In this context, the balance between ecosystems conservation and human water needs becomes even more difficult to manage. We performed a comprehensive analysis over European territory to assess the behaviour of basins regarding different criteria for environmental flow determination under climate change scenarios. We used a water allocation model, WAAPA, to estimate the water availability (WA). In this study, WA represents the maximum demand that can be supplied at a certain point of the river network with a given reliability criteria, considering drinking and irrigation water supply. We considered two methods for calculating Qeco, Qeco1 based on mean monthly flow (MMF) and Qeco2 based on mean annual runoff (MAF). We analyzed the current scenario (historical from 1960 to 2000) and 40 future projections, which combine short and long term (from 2020 to 2059, and from 2060 to 2099, respectively), four emission scenarios (RCP2.6 to RCP8.5) and five climate models. Expected changes on MAF due to climate change are not uniform through Europe and also vary regarding the specific climate scenario. >70 % of basins show a trend to reduce their MAF under severe emission scenarios. Conservative values of Qeco represent a heavy constraint for WA and stress the water systems similarly than climate change impacts. The study also highlights that regulation capacity helps on buffering the effects of both climate change and environmental requirements. This study provides a good insight for understanding basin response in terms of WA, regarding environmental criteria and climate change effects.}, }
@article {pmid37980365, year = {2023}, author = {Bania, JK and Deka, JR and Hazarika, A and Das, AK and Nath, AJ and Sileshi, GW}, title = {Modelling habitat suitability for Moringa oleifera and Moringa stenopetala under current and future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {20221}, pmid = {37980365}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Moringa oleifera ; *Moringa ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Moringa oleifera Lam and Moringa stenopetala (Baker f.) Cufod are being widely promoted as multipurpose trees across the tropics for their nutritional, medicinal and soil health benefits. Different parts of these species are edible, have therapeutic values and their seeds are used for water purification. Although the two species are similar in many ways, they have contrasting distributions. However, their current promotion is not guided by adequate knowledge of the suitability of the target areas. Information is also scanty on the suitability of habitats for these species under the current and future climate change scenarios. Therefore, the objective of this study was to predict the habitat suitability of M. oleifera and M. stenopetala under current and future climate change scenarios using an ensemble of models assuming four shared socio-economic pathways, namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 for 2050 and 2070. The results suggest that areas that are highly suitable for M. oleifera will increase by 0.1% and 3.2% under SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5 by 2050, respectively. By 2070, the area suitable for M. oleifera would likely decrease by 5.4 and 10.6% under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The habitat that is highly suitable for M. stenopetala was predicted to increase by 85-98% under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios by 2050 and by 2070, while suitable areas could increase by up to 143.6% under SSP5-8.5. The most influential bioclimatic variables for both species were mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of driest quarter, precipitation of wettest month, and isothermality. Additionally, soil pH, elevation and water holding capacity were influential variables in the distribution of M. oleifera, while soil pH, soil salinity and slope were influential in M. stenopetala distribution. This study has provided baseline information on the current distribution and possible future habitat suitability, which will be helpful to guide formulation of good policies and practices for promoting Moringa species outside their current range.}, }
@article {pmid37979872, year = {2024}, author = {Khan, A and Ball, BA}, title = {Soil microbial responses to simulated climate change across polar ecosystems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {909}, number = {}, pages = {168556}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168556}, pmid = {37979872}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; Tundra ; Arctic Regions ; Carbon ; Water/analysis ; }, abstract = {The polar regions are among the most biologically constrained in the world, characterized by cold temperatures and reduced liquid water. These limitations make them among the most climate-sensitive regions on Earth. Despite the overwhelming constraints from low temperatures and resource availability, many polar ecosystems, including polar deserts and tundras across the Arctic and Antarctic host uniquely diverse microbial communities. Polar regions have warmed more rapidly than the global average, with continued warming predicted for the future, which will reduce constraints on soil microbial activity. This could alter polar carbon (C) cycles, increasing CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. The objective of this study was to determine how increased temperature and moisture availability impacts microbial respiration in polar regions, by focusing on a diversity of ecosystem types (polar desert vs. tundra) that are geographically distant across Antarctica and the Arctic. We found that polar desert soil microbes were co-limited by temperature and moisture, though C and nitrogen (N) mineralization were only stimulated at the coldest and driest of the two polar deserts. Only bacterial biomass was impacted at the less harsh of the polar deserts, suggesting microbial activity is limited by factors other than temperature and moisture. Of the tundra sites, only the Antarctic tundra was climate-sensitive, where increased temperature decreased C and N mineralization while water availability stimulated it. The greater availability of soil resources and vegetative biomass at the Arctic tundra site might lead to its lack of climate-sensitivity. Notably, while C and N dynamics were climate-sensitive at some of our polar sites, P availability was not impacted at any of them. Our results demonstrate that soil microbial processes in some polar ecosystems are more sensitive to changes in temperature and moisture than others, with implications for soil C and N storage that are not uniformly predictable across polar regions.}, }
@article {pmid37979332, year = {2023}, author = {Grey, V and Smith-Miles, K and Fletcher, TD and Hatt, BE and Coleman, RA}, title = {Empirical evidence of climate change and urbanization impacts on warming stream temperatures.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {247}, number = {}, pages = {120703}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.120703}, pmid = {37979332}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {*Urbanization ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Climate change and urbanization threaten streams and the biodiversity that rely upon them worldwide. Emissions of greenhouse gases are causing air and sea surface temperatures to increase, and even small areas of urbanization are degrading stream biodiversity, water quality and hydrology. However, empirical evidence of how increasing air temperatures and urbanization together affect stream temperatures over time and their relative influence on stream temperatures is limited. This study quantifies changes in stream temperatures in a region in South-East Australia with an urban-agricultural-forest landcover gradient and where increasing air temperatures have been observed. Using Random Forest models we identify air temperature and urbanization drive increasing stream temperatures and that their combined effects are larger than their individual effects occurring alone. Furthermore, we identify potential mitigation measures useful for waterway managers and policy makers. The results show that both local and global solutions are needed to reduce future increases to stream temperature.}, }
@article {pmid37979118, year = {2023}, author = {Dai, Y and Li, D}, title = {Climate change and anthropogenic activities shrink the range and dispersal of an endangered primate in Sichuan Province, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {58}, pages = {122921-122933}, pmid = {37979118}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {32270548//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2021JDRC0024//Sichuan Science and Technology Program/ ; 23RKX0326//Sichuan Science and Technology Program/ ; 2019QZKK0501//the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program/ ; 2019HJ2096001006//the Biodiversity Survey and Assessment Project of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Presbytini ; Climate Change ; Anthropogenic Effects ; *Colobinae ; China ; }, abstract = {The golden snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) is a rare and endemic species in China. The population of golden snub-nosed monkeys in Sichuan Province has an isolated genetic status, large population size, and low genetic diversity, making it highly vulnerable to environmental changes. Our study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of climate and land-use changes on the distribution and dispersal paths of the species in Sichuan Province. We used three general circulation models (GCMs), three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and three land-use change scenarios suitable for China to predict the potential distributions of the golden snub-nosed monkey in the current and 2070s using the MaxEnt model. The dispersal paths were identified by the circuit theory. Our results suggested that the habitats of the golden snub-nosed monkey were reduced under all three GCM scenarios. The suitable habitats for the golden snub-nosed monkey would be reduced by 82.67%, 82.47%, and 75.17% under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, compared to the currently suitable habitat area. Additionally, we found that the density of future dispersal paths of golden snub-nosed monkeys would decrease, and the dispersal resistance would increase. Therefore, relevant wildlife protection agencies should prioritize the climatically suitable distributions and key dispersal paths of golden snub-nosed monkeys to improve their conservation. We identified key areas for habitat preservation and increased habitat connectivity under climate change, which could serve as a reference for future adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid37978989, year = {2023}, author = {Al Meslamani, AZ}, title = {How climate change influences pathogen transmission.}, journal = {Pathogens and global health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1080/20477724.2023.2285185}, pmid = {37978989}, issn = {2047-7732}, }
@article {pmid37977587, year = {2023}, author = {Makharia, GK and Sadeghi, A and Leddin, D and Costello, A}, title = {Impact of climate change on vulnerable populations.}, journal = {Gut}, volume = {72}, number = {12}, pages = {2201-2204}, doi = {10.1136/gutjnl-2023-331195}, pmid = {37977587}, issn = {1468-3288}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, }
@article {pmid37977585, year = {2023}, author = {Donnelly, MC and Talley, NJ}, title = {Effects of climate change on digestive health and preventative measures.}, journal = {Gut}, volume = {72}, number = {12}, pages = {2199-2201}, doi = {10.1136/gutjnl-2023-331187}, pmid = {37977585}, issn = {1468-3288}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Digestion ; *Gastrointestinal Tract ; }, }
@article {pmid37977584, year = {2023}, author = {Philipsborn, R and Manivannan, M and Sack, TL}, title = {Climate change, paediatric health and ways that digestive health professionals can engage.}, journal = {Gut}, volume = {72}, number = {12}, pages = {2216-2218}, doi = {10.1136/gutjnl-2023-331166}, pmid = {37977584}, issn = {1468-3288}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Gastrointestinal Tract ; *Pediatrics ; }, }
@article {pmid37977583, year = {2023}, author = {Leddin, D and Montgomery, H}, title = {The fundamentals: understanding the climate change crisis.}, journal = {Gut}, volume = {72}, number = {12}, pages = {2196-2198}, doi = {10.1136/gutjnl-2023-331008}, pmid = {37977583}, issn = {1468-3288}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid37977581, year = {2023}, author = {Omary, MB and Leddin, D and Metz, G and Veitch, AM and El-Omar, EM and Macedo, G and Perman, ML}, title = {World Gastroenterology Organisation - Gut commentary series on digestive health and climate change.}, journal = {Gut}, volume = {72}, number = {12}, pages = {2193-2196}, doi = {10.1136/gutjnl-2023-331193}, pmid = {37977581}, issn = {1468-3288}, mesh = {Humans ; *Gastroenterology ; Climate Change ; Gastrointestinal Tract ; Societies, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid37977174, year = {2023}, author = {Romanello, M and Napoli, CD and Green, C and Kennard, H and Lampard, P and Scamman, D and Walawender, M and Ali, Z and Ameli, N and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Beggs, PJ and Belesova, K and Berrang Ford, L and Bowen, K and Cai, W and Callaghan, M and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Chambers, J and Cross, TJ and van Daalen, KR and Dalin, C and Dasandi, N and Dasgupta, S and Davies, M and Dominguez-Salas, P and Dubrow, R and Ebi, KL and Eckelman, M and Ekins, P and Freyberg, C and Gasparyan, O and Gordon-Strachan, G and Graham, H and Gunther, SH and Hamilton, I and Hang, Y and Hänninen, R and Hartinger, S and He, K and Heidecke, J and Hess, JJ and Hsu, SC and Jamart, L and Jankin, S and Jay, O and Kelman, I and Kiesewetter, G and Kinney, P and Kniveton, D and Kouznetsov, R and Larosa, F and Lee, JKW and Lemke, B and Liu, Y and Liu, Z and Lott, M and Lotto Batista, M and Lowe, R and Odhiambo Sewe, M and Martinez-Urtaza, J and Maslin, M and McAllister, L and McMichael, C and Mi, Z and Milner, J and Minor, K and Minx, JC and Mohajeri, N and Momen, NC and Moradi-Lakeh, M and Morrissey, K and Munzert, S and Murray, KA and Neville, T and Nilsson, M and Obradovich, N and O'Hare, MB and Oliveira, C and Oreszczyn, T and Otto, M and Owfi, F and Pearman, O and Pega, F and Pershing, A and Rabbaniha, M and Rickman, J and Robinson, EJZ and Rocklöv, J and Salas, RN and Semenza, JC and Sherman, JD and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Silbert, G and Sofiev, M and Springmann, M and Stowell, JD and Tabatabaei, M and Taylor, J and Thompson, R and Tonne, C and Treskova, M and Trinanes, JA and Wagner, F and Warnecke, L and Whitcombe, H and Winning, M and Wyns, A and Yglesias-González, M and Zhang, S and Zhang, Y and Zhu, Q and Gong, P and Montgomery, H and Costello, A}, title = {The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {402}, number = {10419}, pages = {2346-2394}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01859-7}, pmid = {37977174}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Global Health ; }, }
@article {pmid37977168, year = {2023}, author = {Friel, S}, title = {Climate change mitigation: tackling the commercial determinants of planetary health inequity.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {402}, number = {10419}, pages = {2269-2271}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02512-6}, pmid = {37977168}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Inequities ; }, }
@article {pmid37975196, year = {2023}, author = {Taff, SD and Yoo, MG and Carlson, KA and Bakhshi, P}, title = {Climate Change and Occupational Therapy: Meeting the Urgent Need for Adaptation, Mitigation, and Resilience.}, journal = {Occupational therapy in health care}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-18}, doi = {10.1080/07380577.2023.2277220}, pmid = {37975196}, issn = {1541-3098}, abstract = {Climate change may be the most pressing existential threat to human health and wellbeing in the twenty first century. In this paper, the authors provide context and critique on barriers to climate action in the United States and other high-income countries, including the profit-driven approach to health, consumerism, and the climate change countermovement. The reciprocal connections between occupational engagement and climate damage are examined from a lens of collective and irresponsible occupations and subsequent accountability. The authors propose the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals as a basis for recommendations occupational therapy practitioners could implement within the priorities of adaptation, mitigation, and resilience.}, }
@article {pmid37974149, year = {2023}, author = {Martins, RS and Poulikidis, K and Razi, SS and Latif, MJ and Tafuri, K and Bhora, FY}, title = {From emissions to incisions and beyond: the repercussions of climate change on surgical disease in low- and-middle-income countries.}, journal = {BMC surgery}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {348}, pmid = {37974149}, issn = {1471-2482}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; *Air Pollution ; }, abstract = {Climate change has far-reaching repercussions for surgical healthcare in low- and middle-income countries. Natural disasters cause injuries and infrastructural damage, while air pollution and global warming may increase surgical disease and predispose to worse outcomes. Socioeconomic ramifications further strain healthcare systems, highlighting the need for integrated climate and healthcare policies.}, }
@article {pmid37973426, year = {2023}, author = {O'Connell, M and Catling, C and Mintz-Woo, K and Homer, C}, title = {Strengthening midwifery in response to global climate change to protect maternal and newborn health.}, journal = {Women and birth : journal of the Australian College of Midwives}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.wombi.2023.10.004}, pmid = {37973426}, issn = {1878-1799}, }
@article {pmid37973409, year = {2023}, author = {Corpuz, JCG}, title = {Heatwaves, wildfires and global warming: a call to public health action.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdad242}, pmid = {37973409}, issn = {1741-3850}, }
@article {pmid37973264, year = {2024}, author = {Wright, RJ and Demain, JG}, title = {Growing Impact of Climate Change on Respiratory Health and Related Allergic Disorders: Need for Health Systems to Prepare.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {xi-xv}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2023.10.001}, pmid = {37973264}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/etiology ; Allergens ; }, }
@article {pmid37973262, year = {2024}, author = {Carroll, KN}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Dietary Nutritional Quality and Implications for Asthma and Allergy.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {85-96}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2023.09.002}, pmid = {37973262}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Female ; Humans ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/etiology ; *Asthma/epidemiology/etiology ; Nutritive Value ; }, abstract = {Asthma and allergic disorders are common in childhood with genetic and environmental determinants of disease that include prenatal nutritional exposures such as long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids and antioxidants. Global climate change is implicated in asthma and allergic disorder morbidity with potential mechanisms including perturbations of ecosystems. There is support that environmental and climatic changes such as increasing global temperate and carbon dioxide levels affect aquatic and agricultural ecosystems with subsequent alterations in long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid availability and nutrient quality and antioxidant capacity of certain crops, respectively. This article discusses asthma epidemiology and the influence of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37973261, year = {2024}, author = {Lee, ASE and Ramsey, N}, title = {Climate Change and Food Allergy.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {75-83}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2023.07.003}, pmid = {37973261}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Food Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; *Asthma ; *Rhinitis, Allergic ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {The role of environmental factors including climate change and consequent influences of air pollution on food allergy remains less explored compared with impacts on allergic rhinitis and asthma. In this review, we discuss the epithelial barrier hypothesis as a proposed mechanism of food allergy development that may be relevant in this context. We also discuss existing studies that provide insight into the intricate relationship between food allergy and climate-related environmental factors.}, }
@article {pmid37973260, year = {2024}, author = {Gherasim, A and Lee, AG and Bernstein, JA}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Indoor Air Quality.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {55-73}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2023.09.001}, pmid = {37973260}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {Humans ; *Air Pollution, Indoor/adverse effects/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change may affect the quality of the indoor environment through heat and mass transfer between indoors and outdoors: first by a direct response to global warming itself and related extreme weather phenomena and second by indirect actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that can lead to increased concentrations of indoor air contaminants. Therefore, both indoor and outdoor air pollution contribute to poor indoor air quality in this context. Exposures to high concentrations of these pollutants contribute to inflammatory respiratory diseases. Climate change adaptation and mitigation measures could minimize these risks and bring associated health benefits.}, }
@article {pmid37973259, year = {2024}, author = {Choi, YJ and Oh, JW}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on the Sporulation of Atmospheric Fungi.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {45-54}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2023.07.005}, pmid = {37973259}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollution ; Fungi ; *Air Pollutants ; }, abstract = {The U.S. Global Change Research Program, Fourth National Climate Assessment reports that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. There are no convincing alternative explanations supported by observational evidence.}, }
@article {pmid37973256, year = {2024}, author = {Morejón-Jaramillo, PE and Nassikas, NJ and Rice, MB}, title = {Clinical Medicine and Climate Change.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {109-117}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2023.07.006}, pmid = {37973256}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {Humans ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Climate Change ; *Clinical Medicine ; }, abstract = {The health care system contributes substantially to global greenhouse gas emissions, a driver of climate change. At the same time, climate change has caused disruptions in health care delivery. In this article, the authors describe both how the health care industry contributes to climate change and how climate change affects patient care. The authors also provide clinical recommendations for health care practitioners to counsel patients on health effects of climate change and underscore the need for developing the workforce needed to respond to unique health care delivery challenges resulting from climate-related factors.}, }
@article {pmid37973255, year = {2024}, author = {Amini, H and Amini, M and Wright, RO}, title = {Climate Change, Exposome Change, and Allergy: A Review.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {1-13}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2023.09.003}, pmid = {37973255}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {Humans ; *Exposome ; Climate Change ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/etiology ; Allergens ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to human respiratory health and associated allergic disorders given its broad impact on the exposome. Climate change can affect exposure to allergens, such as pollen, dust mites, molds, as well as other factors such as temperature, air pollution, and nutritional factors, which synergistically impact the immune response to these allergens. Exposome change can differentially exacerbate allergic reactions across subgroups of populations, especially those who are more vulnerable to environmental stressors. Understanding links between climate change and health impacts can help inform how to protect individuals and vulnerable populations from adverse health effects.}, }
@article {pmid37973104, year = {2023}, author = {Shan, ZD and Liu, D and Luo, H and Liu, JW and Zhang, LM and Wei, YH}, title = {[Impacts of Human Activities on the Net Primary Productivity of Vegetation in Chengde's Transitional Region from Plateau to Plain in the Context of Climate Change].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {44}, number = {11}, pages = {6215-6225}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.202211009}, pmid = {37973104}, issn = {0250-3301}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Human Activities ; Temperature ; China ; }, abstract = {Chengde's transitional region from plateau to plain is located in the transition zone of agriculture and livestock and is extremely sensitive to climate change and human activities. This study used the net primary productivity(NPP) of vegetation as an evaluation index to quantify the degree impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation change in the region. The Thornthwaite Memorial model was used to calculate the potential NPP, and the actual NPP was obtained based on MODIS NPP remote sensing images, using the difference between the actual and potential NPPs to express the amount of change in NPP owing to human activities. We used the slope trend and coefficient of variation method to analyze the trend and stability distribution of the actual NPP, potential NPP, and NPP influenced by human activities, and the correlation between actual NPP and annual precipitation and annual average temperature was analyzed using the correlation coefficient method. Finally, we quantified the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation change in the region. The results showed that 99.87% of the vegetation in the region was improved and changed steadily, and the proportions of the areas showing positive correlation between actual NPP and annual precipitation and annual average temperature were 99.87% and 91.66%, respectively. The potential NPP showed an increasing trend from northwest to southeast, whereas the trend and stability of the potential NPP both showed an increasing trend from west to east. The area where climate change and human activities played a role in vegetation improvement accounted for 99.71%, and that affected by climate change accounted for 0.14%, with the proportion of human activities leading to vegetation degradation being 0.15%.}, }
@article {pmid37972601, year = {2023}, author = {Kistemann, T and Zerbe, S and Säumel, I and Fehr, R}, title = {[Urban green and blue spaces in times of climate change].}, journal = {Gesundheitswesen (Bundesverband der Arzte des Offentlichen Gesundheitsdienstes (Germany))}, volume = {85}, number = {S 05}, pages = {S296-S303}, doi = {10.1055/a-2144-5404}, pmid = {37972601}, issn = {1439-4421}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Quality of Life ; Germany ; Urban Health ; Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Both climate mitigation and adaptation are urgently needed as complementary strategies for sustainably reducing and managing urban health risks posed by climate change. The positive effects of urban green and blue spaces on physical and mental health are well-known since decades. However, there is intensive competition around the use of the urban space. Reflecting the European Aalborg Charta (1994), German building laws require development plans to be sustainable in this demanding context with human health being a concern of central importance. Reality, however, remains challenging. Although there are numerous best practice examples, research on the impact of urban green and blue spaces on human health and well-being is still required. Furthermore, all relevant policy fields need to develop awareness of the importance of green and blue spaces for quality of life and health, so that the issue of health is taken into consideration adequately as well as in a socially sensitive manner in urban decision processes.}, }
@article {pmid37972436, year = {2023}, author = {Mohamed, AAE and ElKholy, SEA and Eweida, RS and AbdElsalam, RMM}, title = {Using the information-motivation-behavioral skills model for targeting older adults' climate change management practices: in the road of COP27.}, journal = {Geriatric nursing (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {55}, number = {}, pages = {52-63}, doi = {10.1016/j.gerinurse.2023.11.002}, pmid = {37972436}, issn = {1528-3984}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a rapidly evolving public health problem warranting global attention in the 21st century. The World Health Organization declared that climate illiteracy is highly prevalent among older adults, especially in lower- and middle-income nations.<br><br>AIM: To determine the effect of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Model-based intervention for climate change management practices among older adults.<br><br>DESIGN: A quasi-experimental employed a pre-posttest, two-group research design.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: The studied sample comprised 80 older adults (aged 60 years and above), assigned to study and control groups (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;40 each) after completing a baseline survey of six validated measures.<br><br>RESULTS: The study group of proposed intervention based on IMB model demonstrated significant improvement in the mean scores of information (98.62&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;3.56), motivation (90.14&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;3.02), actual skills (84.13&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;8.76), and practices (85.80&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;3.94), p&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.001.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The intervention based on the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Model has demonstrated credible feasibility in significantly improving the climate change-related information, motivation, skills, and management practices of older adults immediately after the posttest. It should be emphasized that this improvement showed a significant decline at the six-week mark; albeit the study participants' scores remained significantly higher than their pre-test values, there is clearly a need for reinforcement to maintain positive outcomes over the long term. The existing outcomes call for replication of this intervention in other cohorts, such as uneducated older adults and those residing in assisted-living facilities.}, }
@article {pmid37968782, year = {2023}, author = {Signer, K and Formosa, S and Seal-Jones, T}, title = {Building community resilience: The City of Victoria's approach to climate change adaptation and extreme heat response.}, journal = {Journal of business continuity &amp; emergency planning}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {116-129}, pmid = {37968782}, issn = {1749-9216}, abstract = {The Pacific Northwest heat dome of 2021 exposed the need for increased planning and response measures by local governments, and the value of collaboration in preparedness, planning and response to extreme heat events. Recognising that extreme heat is becoming an increasingly significant threat, the City of Victoria has taken steps to improve its response to future events with a focus on developing strategies that provide resources and support to those most vulnerable in the community. The Province of British Columbia and regional health authorities have since provided crucial direction, resources and expertise to municipalities to support response effort for extreme heat events. In recognition of the vital role of community involvement in adaptation planning, the City of Victoria is taking proactive measures to engage its residents in the development of adaptation strategies and disaster risk reduction measures. Building on the lessons learned from the 2021 heat dome and climate change projections for the region, the City is fostering close collaboration with local businesses, nonprofit organisations and community groups to strengthen efforts and ensure that those most at risk are well prepared. The experience in Victoria offers valuable insights and strategies for other municipalities seeking to develop effective disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies based on best practice for planning and responding to extreme heat events. This paper provides a case study of how the City of Victoria responded to the 2021 heat dome, the lessons learned, the practices that were adopted for future heat seasons and how working alongside the community will strengthen Victoria's resilience to the changing climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37968297, year = {2023}, author = {Harris, GM and Sesnie, SE and Stewart, DR}, title = {Climate change and ecosystem shifts in the southwestern United States.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {19964}, pmid = {37968297}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change shifts ecosystems, altering their compositions and instigating transitions, making climate change the predominant driver of ecosystem instability. Land management agencies experience these climatic effects on ecosystems they administer yet lack applied information to inform mitigation. We address this gap, explaining ecosystem shifts by building relationships between the historical locations of 22 ecosystems (c. 2000) and abiotic data (1970-2000; bioclimate, terrain) within the southwestern United States using 'ensemble' machine learning models. These relationships identify the conditions required for establishing and maintaining southwestern ecosystems (i.e., ecosystem suitability). We projected these historical relationships to mid (2041-2060) and end-of-century (2081-2100) periods using CMIP6 generation BCC-CSM2-MR and GFDL-ESM4 climate models with SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios. This procedure reveals how ecosystems shift, as suitability typically increases in area (~ 50% (~ 40% SD)), elevation (12-15%) and northing (4-6%) by mid-century. We illustrate where and when ecosystems shift, by mapping suitability predictions temporally and within 52,565 properties (e.g., Federal, State, Tribal). All properties had ≥ 50% changes in suitability for ≥ 1 ecosystem within them, irrespective of size (≥ 16.7 km[2]). We integrated 9 climate models to quantify predictive uncertainty and exemplify its relevance. Agencies must manage ecosystem shifts transcending jurisdictions. Effective mitigation requires collective action heretofore rarely instituted. Our procedure supplies the climatic context to inform their decisions.}, }
@article {pmid37967480, year = {2023}, author = {Elzohairy, NW and Fatah, NKAE and Khedr, MA}, title = {Effectiveness of psycho-educational program on climate change distress and risk perception among older adults.}, journal = {Geriatric nursing (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {55}, number = {}, pages = {35-43}, doi = {10.1016/j.gerinurse.2023.10.017}, pmid = {37967480}, issn = {1528-3984}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a global environmental phenomenon that affects human health. It has a negative impact on the health and well-being of older adults. Therefore, educating older adults about coping with climate change and providing psychological interventions could promote successful aging.<br><br>AIM: To determine the effectiveness of psycho-educational program on climate change distress and risk perception among older adults.<br><br>METHODS: A quasi-experimental research design, "pre-test and post-test was followed. The study used the Climate Change Distress, the Impairment Scale, and the Risk Perception Scale. Data were collected from 80 older adults aged 60 years and above at three elderly clubs in Damanhour City, El-Behaira Governorate, Egypt.<br><br>RESULTS: The difference in mean severity of climate change distress, impairment, and risk perception scores between the study and control groups after the psycho-educational program was statistically significant.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Psycho-educational interventions can reduce climate change distress and impairment among older adults and increase their risk perception.}, }
@article {pmid37966185, year = {2023}, author = {Khan, M and Khan, AU and Khan, S and Khan, FA}, title = {Assessing the impacts of climate change on streamflow dynamics: A machine learning perspective.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {88}, number = {9}, pages = {2309-2331}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2023.340}, pmid = {37966185}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Neural Networks, Computer ; Machine Learning ; Rivers ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {This study investigates changes in river flow patterns, in the Hunza Basin, Pakistan, attributed to climate change. Given the anticipated rise in extreme weather events, accurate streamflow predictions are increasingly vital. We assess three machine learning (ML) models - artificial neural network (ANN), recurrent neural network (RNN), and adaptive fuzzy neural inference system (ANFIS) - for streamflow prediction under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), specifically SSP245 and SSP585. Four key performance indicators, mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R[2]), guide the evaluation. These models employ monthly precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures as inputs, and discharge as the output, spanning 1985-2014. The ANN model with a 3-10-1 architecture outperforms RNN and ANFIS, displaying lower MSE, RMSE, MAE, and higher R[2] values for both training (MSE = 20417, RMSE = 142, MAE = 71, R[2] = 0.94) and testing (MSE = 9348, RMSE = 96, MAE = 108, R[2] = 0.92) datasets. Subsequently, the superior ANN model predicts streamflow up to 2100 using SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. These results underscore the potential of ANN models for robust futuristic streamflow estimation, offering valuable insights for water resource management and planning.}, }
@article {pmid37965790, year = {2023}, author = {Moinet, GYK and Amundson, R and Galdos, MV and Grace, PR and Haefele, SM and Hijbeek, R and Van Groenigen, JW and Van Groenigen, KJ and Powlson, DS}, title = {Climate change mitigation through soil carbon sequestration in working lands: A reality check.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e17010}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17010}, pmid = {37965790}, issn = {1365-2486}, }
@article {pmid37965103, year = {2023}, author = {Giomi, F and Lannig, G and Fusi, M}, title = {Editorial: Impact of climate change on coastal environmental variability and aquatic physiology.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1305645}, pmid = {37965103}, issn = {1664-042X}, }
@article {pmid37964994, year = {2023}, author = {Barna, B and Torres, N and Rogiers, SY}, title = {Editorial: Improving the sustainability of winegrape vineyards during climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1314923}, pmid = {37964994}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid37964088, year = {2023}, author = {Shah, IA and Muhammad, Z and Khan, H and Ullah, R and Rahman, AU}, title = {Spatiotemporal variation in the vegetation cover of Peshawar Basin in response to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {12}, pages = {1474}, pmid = {37964088}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Satellite Imagery ; Temperature ; Agriculture ; China ; }, abstract = {Climate factors like temperature, precipitation, humidity, and sunshine time exert a profound influence on vegetation. The intricate interplay between the two is crucial to understand in the face of changing climate to develop mitigation strategies. In the current exploration, we delve how climate variability (CV) has impacted the vegetation in the Peshawar Basin (PB) using remote sensing data tools. The trend of climatic variability was investigated using the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope statistics. The changing climatic parameters were regressed on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The NDVI was further analyzed for spatiotemporal variability under land surface temperature (LST) influence. Results revealed that among the climate factors, average annual temperature and solar radiation have a significant (p < 0.05) negative impact on vegetation while precipitation and relative humidity significantly (p < 0.05) influence NDVI positively. The overall positive trend shows that vegetation improved between 2001 and 2020 with time, however some years (2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017) with low NDVI. NDVI varied in space considerably due to climatic extremes brought on by CV and the urbanization of agricultural land. NDVI regressed on LST showed that there was no or very little vegetation in the grids with high LST. The study concluded that the region is significantly impacted by both CV-related extreme weather events and anthropogenic activities. The vegetation is improving, but it is in danger of being destroyed by deforestation due to CV and human activities that exacerbate the risk of future calamities. To protect vegetation and avoid disasters, there is an immense need for adaptation and mitigation measures to deal with the region's fast-changing environment. The study urges local authorities to create climate-resilient governmental policies and supports regional sustainable development and vegetation restoration.}, }
@article {pmid37963957, year = {2023}, author = {Rosenthal, S and Irvine, PJ and Cummings, CL and Ho, SS}, title = {Exposure to climate change information predicts public support for solar geoengineering in Singapore and the United States.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {19874}, pmid = {37963957}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {RG121/20//Ministry of Education - Singapore/ ; }, abstract = {Solar geoengineering is a controversial climate policy measure that could lower global temperature by increasing the amount of light reflected by the Earth. As scientists and policymakers increasingly consider this idea, an understanding of the level and drivers of public support for its research and potential deployment will be key. This study focuses on the role of climate change information in public support for research and deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) in Singapore (n = 503) and the United States (n = 505). Findings were consistent with the idea that exposure to information underlies support for research and deployment. That finding was stronger in the United States, where climate change is a more contentious issue, than in Singapore. Cost concern was negatively related to support for funding and perceived risk was negatively related to support for deployment. Perceived government efficacy was a more positive predictor of support for funding in Singapore than in the United States. Additionally, relatively low support for local deployment was consistent with a NIMBY mindset. This was the first study to quantify the role of climate change information in SAI policy support, which has practical implications for using the media and interpersonal channels to communicate about SAI policy measures.}, }
@article {pmid37963523, year = {2024}, author = {Terrado, M and Pérez-Zanón, N and Bojovic, D and González-Reviriego, N and Versteeg, G and Octenjak, S and Martínez-Botí, A and Joona, T}, title = {Climate change adaptation stories: Co-creating climate services with reindeer herders in Finland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {908}, number = {}, pages = {168520}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168520}, pmid = {37963523}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Reindeer ; Finland ; Climate Change ; Animal Husbandry ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Reindeer husbandry in the Arctic region is strongly affected by the local climate. Reindeer herders are used to coping with adverse weather, climate, and grazing conditions through autonomous adaptation. However, today's rapidly changing Arctic environment poses new challenges to the management of herding activities. Finding means for combining traditional and scientific knowledge without depriving any of the systems of its fundamental strengths is hence deemed necessary. In this work, we apply a transdisciplinary framework for knowledge co-production involving international researchers and reindeer herders from different cooperatives in northern Finland. Through 'climate change adaptation stories', we co-explore how climate predictions can inform herders' decision making during the herding season. Relevant decisions include the anticipation of summer harvest time, the inopportune periods of cold weather in spring, and insect harassment in summer. Despite their potential benefits for climate-sensitive decisions, climate predictions have seen limited uptake, mainly due to their probabilistic nature and lower quality compared with shorter-term weather forecasts. The analysis of two different adaptation stories shows that seasonal predictions of temperature for May and June can successfully advise about the likelihood of having an earlier than normal harvest. This information can be obtained up to three months in advance, helping herders to better arrange their time for other activities. Likewise, sub-seasonal predictions of temperature during April and May can be useful to anticipate the occurrence of backwinter episodes, which can support herders in deciding whether to feed reindeer in pens for longer, avoiding putting the survival of calves at risk. This study, which would benefit from co-evaluation in real world settings and consideration of additional adaptation stories, sets the basis for a successful co-production of climate services with Arctic reindeer herders. This research shows the potential to enhance the resilience of Polar regions, offering opportunities for adaptation while supporting the sustainability and culture of traditional practices of Arctic communities.}, }
@article {pmid37962932, year = {2023}, author = {McMillan, HM}, title = {In the face of climate change, will trees be…shorter?.}, journal = {Plant physiology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/plphys/kiad610}, pmid = {37962932}, issn = {1532-2548}, }
@article {pmid37962755, year = {2023}, author = {Fulazzaky, MA and Syafiuddin, A and Muda, K and Martin, AY and Yusop, Z and Ghani, NHA}, title = {A review of the management of water resources in Malaysia facing climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {58}, pages = {121865-121880}, pmid = {37962755}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Water Resources ; Climate Change ; Malaysia ; Water Supply ; *Groundwater ; }, abstract = {This paper reviewed the impacts of climate change on the management of the water sector in Malaysia discussing the current status of water resources, water service, and water-related disasters. The implementation of engineering practices was discussed to provide the detailed assessment of climate change impacts, risks, and adaptation for sustainable development. The narrative methods of reviewing the literatures were used to get an understanding on the engineering practices of water infrastructures, implication of the government policies, and several models as the main motivation behind the concept of integrated water resource management to contribute as part of the sustainable development goals to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all. The findings of this review highlighted the impacts of climate change on the rivers, sea, lakes, dams, and groundwater affecting the availability of water for domestic and industrial water supplies, irrigation, hydropower, and fisheries. The impacts of climate change on the water-related disasters have been indicated affecting drought-flood abrupt alternation and water pollution. Challenges of water management practices facing climate change should be aware of the updated intensity-duration-frequency curves, alternative sources of water, effective water demand management, efficiency of irrigation water, inter-basin water transfer, and nonrevenue water. The transferability of this review findings contribute to an engagement with the society and policy makers to mobilize for climate change adaptation in the water sector.}, }
@article {pmid37962107, year = {2023}, author = {Aronsson, J and Nichols, A and Warwick, P and Elf, M}, title = {Nursing students' and educators' perspectives on sustainability and climate change: An integrative review.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jan.15950}, pmid = {37962107}, issn = {1365-2648}, abstract = {AIM: To identify and synthesize research on the awareness, attitudes and action related to sustainability and climate change from the perspective of nursing students and educators globally.<br><br>DESIGN: Integrative review.<br><br>METHODS: The review was guided by Whittemore and Knafl. Included studies were appraised using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. A deductive content analysis based on Elo and Kyng&#xe4;s' methodology was employed.<br><br>DATA SOURCES: CINAHL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, British Education Index, GreenFILE and Scopus were searched up to the 8th November 2022.<br><br>RESULTS: Thirty-two studies were included in the review. Two studies included nursing educators in their samples, the rest focused solely on students. Findings suggest that whilst some students were aware of sustainability issues and felt that nurses have a responsibility to mitigate climate change, others showed limited awareness and believed that nurses have more important priorities. A global interest was seen among students for increased curricular content related to sustainability and climate change. Waste management and education of others were suggested actions students can take; however, barriers included lack of confidence and limited power.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There is a need for sustainability education within nursing curricula, accompanied by student support.<br><br>The review acts as a starting point to make sustainable healthcare and climate change mitigation integral aspects of nursing.<br><br>IMPACT: Sustainability education within nursing curricula can positively impact on sustainable healthcare and climate change mitigation. More research is needed on the perspectives of nursing educators.<br><br>REPORTING METHOD: The review is reported according to the PRISMA guidelines.<br><br>No Patient or Public Contribution.}, }
@article {pmid37962105, year = {2023}, author = {Bennett, AC and Knauer, J and Bennett, LT and Haverd, V and Arndt, SK}, title = {Variable influence of photosynthetic thermal acclimation on future carbon uptake in Australian wooded ecosystems under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e17021}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17021}, pmid = {37962105}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Australian Government Research Training Program/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change will impact gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), and carbon storage in wooded ecosystems. The extent of change will be influenced by thermal acclimation of photosynthesis-the ability of plants to adjust net photosynthetic rates in response to growth temperatures-yet regional differences in acclimation effects among wooded ecosystems is currently unknown. We examined the effects of changing climate on 17 Australian wooded ecosystems with and without the effects of thermal acclimation of C3 photosynthesis. Ecosystems were drawn from five ecoregions (tropical savanna, tropical forest, Mediterranean woodlands, temperate woodlands, and temperate forests) that span Australia's climatic range. We used the CABLE-POP land surface model adapted with thermal acclimation functions and forced with HadGEM2-ES climate projections from RCP8.5. For each site and ecoregion we examined (a) effects of climate change on GPP, NPP, and live tree carbon storage; and (b) impacts of thermal acclimation of photosynthesis on simulated changes. Between the end of the historical (1976-2005) and projected (2070-2099) periods simulated annual carbon uptake increased in the majority of ecosystems by 26.1%-63.3% for GPP and 15%-61.5% for NPP. Thermal acclimation of photosynthesis further increased GPP and NPP in tropical savannas by 27.2% and 22.4% and by 11% and 10.1% in tropical forests with positive effects concentrated in the wet season (tropical savannas) and the warmer months (tropical forests). We predicted minimal effects of thermal acclimation of photosynthesis on GPP, NPP, and carbon storage in Mediterranean woodlands, temperate woodlands, and temperate forests. Overall, positive effects were strongly enhanced by increasing CO2 concentrations under RCP8.5. We conclude that the direct effects of climate change will enhance carbon uptake and storage in Australian wooded ecosystems (likely due to CO2 enrichment) and that benefits of thermal acclimation of photosynthesis will be restricted to tropical ecoregions.}, }
@article {pmid37960105, year = {2023}, author = {He, H and Hu, Q and Pan, F and Pan, X}, title = {Evaluating Nitrogen Management Practices for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in a Maize Farmland in the North China Plain: Adapting to Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {37960105}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Quantification of the trade-offs among greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yield, and farmers' incomes is essential for proposing economic and environmental nitrogen (N) management strategies for optimizing agricultural production. A four-year (2017-2020) field experiment (including four treatments: basic N fertilizer treatment (BF), suitable utilization of fertilization (SU), emission reduction treatment (ER), and high fertilization (HF)) was conducted on maize (Zea mays L.) in the North China Plain. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method was used in this study to quantify the GHG emissions and farmers' incomes during the whole maize production process. The total GHG emissions of BF, SU, ER, and HF treatments in the process of maize production are 10,755.2, 12,908.7, 11,950.1, and 14,274.5 kg CO2-eq ha[-1], respectively, of which the direct emissions account for 84.8%, 76.8%, 74.9%, and 71.0%, respectively. Adding inhibitors significantly reduced direct GHG emissions, and the N2O and CO2 emissions from the maize fields in the ER treatment decreased by 30.0% and 7.9% compared to those in the SU treatment. Insignificant differences in yield were found between the SU and ER treatments, indicating that adding fertilizer inhibitors did not affect farmers' incomes while reducing GHG emissions. The yield for SU, ER, and HF treatments all significantly increased by 12.9-24.0%, 10.0-20.7%, and 2.1-17.4% compared to BF, respectively. In comparison with BF, both SU and ER significantly promoted agricultural net profit (ANP) by 16.6% and 12.2%, with mean ANP values of 3101.0 USD ha[-1] and 2980.0 USD ha[-1], respectively. Due to the high agricultural inputs, the ANP values in the HF treatment were 11.2%, 16.6%, and 12.4% lower than those in the SU treatment in 2018-2020. In conclusion, the combination of N fertilizer and inhibitors proved to be an environmentally friendly, high-profit, and low-emissions production technology while sustaining or even increasing maize yields in the North China Plain, which was conducive to achieving agricultural sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid37960089, year = {2023}, author = {Yang, M and Sun, L and Yu, Y and Zhang, H and Malik, I and Wistuba, M and Yu, R}, title = {Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of Rhodiola L. in China under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {37960089}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Rhodiola L. has high nutritional and medicinal value. Little is known about the properties of its habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping its suitability. Rhodiola coccinea (Royle) Boriss., Rhodiola gelida Schrenk, Rhodiola kirilowii (Regel) Maxim., and Rhodiola quadrifida (Pall.) Fisch. et Mey., which are National Grade II Protected Plants, were selected for this research. Based on high-resolution environmental data for the past, current, and future climate scenarios, we modeled the suitable habitat for four species by MaxEnt, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the growth distribution of R. coccinea, R. kirilowii, and R. quadrifida is most affected by bio10 (mean temperature of warmest quarter), bio3 (isothermality), and bio12 (annual precipitation), whereas that of R. gelida is most affected by bio8 (mean temperature of wettest quarter), bio13 (precipitation of wettest month), and bio16 (precipitation of wettest quarter). Under the current climate scenario, R. coccinea and R. quadrifida are primarily distributed in Tibet, eastern Qinghai, Sichuan, northern Yunnan, and southern Gansu in China, and according to the 2070 climate scenario, the suitable habitats for both species are expected to expand. On the other hand, the suitable habitats for R. gelida and R. kirilowii, which are primarily concentrated in southwestern Xinjiang, Tibet, eastern Qinghai, Sichuan, northern Yunnan, and southern Gansu in China, are projected to decrease under the 2070 climate scenario. Given these results, the four species included in our study urgently need to be subjected to targeted observation management to ensure the renewal of Rhodiola communities. In particular, R. gelida and R. kirilowii should be given more attention. This study provides a useful reference with valuable insights for developing effective management and conservation strategies for these four nationally protected plant species.}, }
@article {pmid37960054, year = {2023}, author = {Fedorov, N and Zhigunova, S and Shirokikh, P and Baisheva, E and Martynenko, V}, title = {Analysis of the Potential Range of Mountain Pine-Broadleaf Ecotone Forests and Its Changes under Moderate and Strong Climate Change in the 21st Century.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {37960054}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {22-14-00003//Russian Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Climatic changes have a significant impact on the composition and distribution of forests, especially on ecotone ones. In the Southern Ural, pine-broadleaf ecotone forests were widespread during the early Holocene time, but now have persisted as relic plant communities. This study aimed to analyze the current potential range and to model changes in habitat suitability of relic pine-broadleaf ecotone forests of the suballiance Tilio-Pinenion under scenarios of moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate change. For modelling, we used MaxEnt software with the predictors being climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim, the global digital soil mapping system SoilGrids and the digital elevation model. In the Southern and Middle Urals, climate change is expected to increase the areas with suitable habitat conditions of these forests by the middle of the 21st century and decrease them in the second half of the century. By the middle of the 21st century, the eastern range boundary of these forests will shift eastward due to the penetration of broad-leaved tree species into coniferous forests of the Southern Ural. In the second half of the century, on the contrary, it is expected that climate aridization will again shift the potential range border of these forests to the west due to their gradual replacement by hemiboreal coniferous forests. The relationship between the floristic composition of pine-broadleaf forests and habitat suitability was identified. In low and medium habitat suitability, pine-broadleaf forests contain more nemoral species characteristic of deciduous forests of the temperate zone, and can be replaced by broadleaf forests after thinning and removal of pine. In the Volga Upland, suitable habitats are occupied by pine-broadleaf forests of the vicariant suballiance Querco robori-Tilienion cordatae. Projected climatic changes will have a significant impact on these ecotone forests, which remained completely unaltered for a long time.}, }
@article {pmid37958884, year = {2023}, author = {Marques, I and Ramalho, JC and Ribeiro-Barros, AI}, title = {Plant Responses to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {24}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {37958884}, issn = {1422-0067}, support = {PTDC/ASP-AGR/31257/2017//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; CEF (UIDB/00239/2020)//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; GeoBioTec (UIDP/04035/2020)//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; TERRA (LA/P/0092/2020)//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; Scientific Employment Stimulus-Individual Call (CEEC Indiividual)-2021.01107.CEECIND/CP1689/CT0001 (IM)//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; 727934 (project BreedCAFS)//European Union/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environment ; Agriculture ; Crops, Agricultural ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change poses a great risk to the natural environment and the sustainability of agriculture [...].}, }
@article {pmid37956854, year = {2024}, author = {Bolan, S and Padhye, LP and Jasemizad, T and Govarthanan, M and Karmegam, N and Wijesekara, H and Amarasiri, D and Hou, D and Zhou, P and Biswal, BK and Balasubramanian, R and Wang, H and Siddique, KHM and Rinklebe, J and Kirkham, MB and Bolan, N}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the fate of contaminants through extreme weather events.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {909}, number = {}, pages = {168388}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168388}, pmid = {37956854}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The direct impacts of climate change involve a multitude of phenomena, including rising sea levels, intensified severe weather events such as droughts and flooding, increased temperatures leading to wildfires, and unpredictable fluctuations in rainfall. This comprehensive review intends to examine firstly the probable consequences of climate change on extreme weather events such as drought, flood and wildfire. This review subsequently examines the release and transformation of contaminants in terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric environments in response to extreme weather events driven by climate change. While drought and flood influence the dynamics of inorganic and organic contaminants in terrestrial and aquatic environments, thereby influencing their mobility and transport, wildfire results in the release and spread of organic contaminants in the atmosphere. There is a nascent awareness of climate change's influence of climate change-induced extreme weather events on the dynamics of environmental contaminants in the scientific community and decision-making processes. The remediation industry, in particular, lags behind in adopting adaptive measures for managing contaminated environments affected by climate change-induced extreme weather events. However, recognizing the need for assessment measures represents a pivotal first step towards fostering more adaptive practices in the management of contaminated environments. We highlight the urgency of collaboration between environmental chemists and climate change experts, emphasizing the importance of jointly assessing the fate of contaminants and rigorous action to augment risk assessment and remediation strategies to safeguard the health of our environment.}, }
@article {pmid37955595, year = {2023}, author = {Bhandari, D and Bi, P and Sherchand, JB and von Ehrenstein, OS and Lokmic-Tomkins, Z and Dhimal, M and Hanson-Easey, S}, title = {Climate change and infectious disease surveillance in Nepal: qualitative study exploring social, cultural, political and institutional factors influencing disease surveillance.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdad211}, pmid = {37955595}, issn = {1741-3850}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: To explore the impacts of contextual issues encompassing social, cultural, political and institutional elements, on the operation of public health surveillance systems in Nepal concerning the monitoring of infectious diseases in the face of a changing climate.<br><br>METHODS: Semi-structured interviews (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;16) were conducted amongst key informants from the Department of Health Services, Health Information Management System, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, World Health Organization, and experts working on infectious disease and climate change in Nepal, and data were analysed using thematic analysis technique.<br><br>RESULTS: Analysis explicates how climate change is constructed as a contingent risk for infectious diseases transmission and public health systems, and treated less seriously than other 'salient' public health risks, having implications for how resources are allocated. Further, analysis suggests a weak alliance among different stakeholders, particularly policy makers and evidence generators, resulting in the continuation of traditional practices of infectious diseases surveillance without consideration of the impacts of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We argue that along with strengthening systemic issues (epidemiological capacity, data quality and inter-sectoral collaboration), it is necessary to build a stronger political commitment to urgently address the influence of climate change as a present and exponential risk factor in the spread of infectious disease in Nepal.}, }
@article {pmid37954317, year = {2023}, author = {Bogachev, MI and Gafurov, AM and Iskandirov, PY and Kaplun, DI and Kayumov, AR and Lyanova, AI and Pyko, NS and Pyko, SA and Safonova, AN and Sinitca, AM and Usmanov, BM and Tishin, DV}, title = {Reversal in the drought stress response of the Scots pine forest ecosystem: Local soil water regime as a key to improving climate change resilience.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {e21574}, pmid = {37954317}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {In a changing climate, forest ecosystems have become increasingly vulnerable to continuously exacerbating heat and associated drought conditions. Climate stress resilience is governed by a complex interplay of global, regional, and local factors, with hydrological conditions being among the key players. We studied a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest ecosystem located near the southern edge of the boreal ecotone, which is particularly subjected to frequent and prolonged droughts. By comparing the dendrochronological series of pines growing in apparently contrasting hydrological conditions ranging from the waterlogged peat bog area to the dry soil at the surrounding elevations, we investigated how the soil water regime affects the climate response and drought stress resilience of the forest ecosystem. We found that in the dry land area, a significant fraction of the trees were replaced after two major climate extremes: prolonged drought and extremely low winter temperatures. The latter has also been followed by a three- to ten-fold growth reduction of the trees that survived in the next year, whereas no similar effect has been observed in the peat bog area. Multi-scale detrended partial cross-correlation analysis (DPCCA) indicated that tree-ring width (TRW) was negatively correlated with spring and summer temperatures and positively correlated with the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) for the same year. For the elevated dry land area, the above effect extends to interannual scales, indicating that prolonged heatwaves and associated droughts are among the factors that limit tree growth. In marked contrast, in the waterlogged peat bog area, a reversed tendency was observed, with prolonged dry periods as well as warmer springs and summers over several consecutive years, leading to increasing tree growth with a one- to three-year time lag. Altogether, our results indicate that the pessimal conditions of a warming climate could become favorable through the preservation of the soil water regime.}, }
@article {pmid37954193, year = {2023}, author = {Sun, B and Xue, R and Li, W and Zhou, S and Li, H and Zhou, B and Wang, H}, title = {How does Mei-yu precipitation respond to climate change?.}, journal = {National science review}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {nwad246}, pmid = {37954193}, issn = {2053-714X}, abstract = {Mei-yu is an important weather phenomenon in the middle-lower Yangtze River valley (YRV) region. This study investigates the changes in the characteristics of Mei-yu under global warming and the potential reasons based on observation and reanalysis data during 1961-2022. Notable increasing long-term trends are detected in the number of days without rainfall (NDWOR), the intensity of rainfall events, and the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the YRV region during the Mei-yu period (15 June-10 July) over past decades. The increasing trend in NDWOR is attributed to decreased relative humidity over land surface and a longer time for the air to be replenished with moisture after rainfall events in a warming climate. The increasing trends in the intensity of rainfall events and frequency/intensity of EPEs are attributed to the strengthened transient water vapor convergence and convection in the atmosphere under global warming. Furthermore, the response of Mei-yu to 2°C of global warming with respect to the pre-industrial climate is analysed using CMIP6 models. The results suggest that the NDWOR, intensity of rainfall events and frequency of EPEs will increase in the YRV region during the Mei-yu period under the 2°C warming scenario, which implies a more challenging climate risk management in the future. Overall, the intensity of rainfall events during the Mei-yu period has the most significant response to climate change in observations and projections. The model results have a relatively large uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid37952809, year = {2023}, author = {Zigmund, B}, title = {Healthcare feels the heat: A primer for radiologists on climate change-related regulatory and policy trends.}, journal = {Journal of the American College of Radiology : JACR}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacr.2023.10.023}, pmid = {37952809}, issn = {1558-349X}, abstract = {In the ensuing decade, health care will encounter risks and opportunities stemming from a regulatory and policy environment that is increasingly shaped by the climate crisis. The startling multiplication of climate change-related extreme weather events has increased public support for action, creating pressure on policy makers and regulatory agencies to provide solutions. Healthcare must decarbonize along with other sectors of the economy; therefore, health care organizations should be prepared to respond to climate-related regulations and take advantage of abundant green energy incentives to achieve the largest greenhouse gas emissions reductions possible and capture financial opportunities related to the national green energy transition. Radiology is an energy-intensive specialty; therefore, radiologists can have a powerful voice in efforts to decarbonize their organizations and will be more effective advocates if they have a basic understanding of the broader national and international climate change-related regulatory and policy trends. The necessity to address climate change is ever clearer; we can either help our organizations lead in in these efforts, or we can wait for policy makers and health care regulators to dictate our actions.}, }
@article {pmid37951272, year = {2024}, author = {Sinervo, B and Lara Reséndiz, RA and Miles, DB and Lovich, JE and Rosen, PC and Gadsden, H and Gaytán, GC and Tessaro, PG and Luja, VH and Huey, RB and Whipple, A and Cordero, VS and Rohr, JB and Caetano, G and Santos, JC and Sites, JW and Méndez de la Cruz, FR}, title = {Climate change and collapsing thermal niches of desert reptiles and amphibians: Assisted migration and acclimation rescue from extirpation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {908}, number = {}, pages = {168431}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168431}, pmid = {37951272}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Lizards/physiology ; Amphibians ; *Turtles ; Ecosystem ; Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {Recent climate change should result in expansion of species to northern or high elevation range margins, and contraction at southern and low elevation margins in the northern hemisphere, because of local extirpations or range shifts or both. We combined museum occurrence records from both the continental U.S. and Mexico with a new eco-physiological model of extinction developed for lizard families of the world to predict the distributions of 30 desert-endemic reptile and amphibian species under climate change scenarios. The model predicts that 38 % of local populations will go extinct in the next 50 years, across all 30 species. However, extinctions may be attenuated in forested sites and by the presence of montane environments in contemporary ranges. Of the 30 species, three were at very high risk of extinction as a result of their thermal limits being exceeded, which illustrates the predictive value of ecophysiological modeling approaches for conservation studies. In tandem with global strategies of limiting CO2 emissions, we propose urgent regional management strategies for existing and new reserves that are targeted at three species: Barred Tiger Salamander (Ambystomatidae: Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi), Desert Short-horned Lizard (Phrynosomatidae: Phrynosoma ornatissimum), and Morafka's Desert Tortoise (Testudinidae: Gopherus morafkai), which face a high risk of extinction by 2070. These strategies focus on assisted migration and preservation within climatic refugia, such as high-elevation and forested habitats. We forecast where new reserves should be established by merging our model of extinction risk with gap analysis. We also highlight that acclimation (i.e., phenotypic plasticity) could ameliorate risk of extinction but is rarely included in ecophysiological models. We use Ambystoma salamanders to show how acclimation can be incorporated into such models of extinction risk.}, }
@article {pmid37951250, year = {2024}, author = {Kirschbaum, MUF and Cowie, AL and Peñuelas, J and Smith, P and Conant, RT and Sage, RF and Brandão, M and Cotrufo, MF and Luo, Y and Way, DA and Robinson, SA}, title = {Is tree planting an effective strategy for climate change mitigation?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {909}, number = {}, pages = {168479}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168479}, pmid = {37951250}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Trees ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Biomass ; Carbon Sequestration ; Carbon ; Fossil Fuels ; }, abstract = {The world's forests store large amounts of carbon (C), and growing forests can reduce atmospheric CO2 by storing C in their biomass. This has provided the impetus for world-wide tree planting initiatives to offset fossil-fuel emissions. However, forests interact with their environment in complex and multifaceted ways that must be considered for a balanced assessment of the value of planting trees. First, one needs to consider the potential reversibility of C sequestration in trees through either harvesting or tree death from natural factors. If carbon storage is only temporary, future temperatures will actually be higher than without tree plantings, but cumulative warming will be reduced, contributing both positively and negatively to future climate-change impacts. Alternatively, forests could be used for bioenergy or wood products to replace fossil-fuel use which would obviate the need to consider the possible reversibility of any benefits. Forests also affect the Earth's energy balance through either absorbing or reflecting incoming solar radiation. As forests generally absorb more incoming radiation than bare ground or grasslands, this constitutes an important warming effect that substantially reduces the benefit of C storage, especially in snow-covered regions. Forests also affect other local ecosystem services, such as conserving biodiversity, modifying water and nutrient cycles, and preventing erosion that could be either beneficial or harmful depending on specific circumstances. Considering all these factors, tree plantings may be beneficial or detrimental for mitigating climate-change impacts, but the range of possibilities makes generalisations difficult. Their net benefit depends on many factors that differ between specific circumstances. One can, therefore, neither uncritically endorse tree planting everywhere, nor condemn it as counter-productive. Our aim is to provide key information to enable appropriate assessments to be made under specific circumstances. We conclude our discussion by providing a step-by-step guide for assessing the merit of tree plantings under specific circumstances.}, }
@article {pmid37950783, year = {2023}, author = {Singh, H and Kumar, N and Singh, R and Kumar, M}, title = {Assessing the climate change impact on the habitat suitability of the range-restricted bird species (Catreus wallichii) in the Indian Himalayan ecosystem.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {57}, pages = {121224-121235}, pmid = {37950783}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {GBPNI/NMHS-2017-18/HSF17-05//Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Quail ; }, abstract = {Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems' function and composition, changing living organisms' habitats. The Indian Himalayan ecosystem (IHE) is particularly susceptible and vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, our understanding of how climate change affects the habitats of range-restricted and vulnerable avifauna in the IHE still needs to be improved. Hence, we employed ensemble species distribution modelling to examine the potential habitat shift of the cheer pheasant (Catreus wallichii) under climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) i.e. RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) by 2050 and 2070. The study revealed a noticeable expansion of climatically suitable habitats, indicating a shift towards higher altitudes that would become more favourable and suitable under future climates. The model predicted an area of very highly suitable habitat (1247.4 km[2]), followed by highly suitable (2747.9 km[2]), moderately suitable (4002.3 km[2]), low suitable (4952.2 km[2]) and rarely suitable (4236 km[2]) in the current scenario. The projection of larger areas was falling into the "no change", followed by the "high suitable" and "low suitable" classes, for both the years 2050 and 2070 across all the RCPs. Furthermore, the projections indicated a consistent trend of increasing suitability for the cheer pheasant at higher elevations and a decline at lower elevations across RCPs for 2050 and 2070. Moreover, the mean diurnal temperature range was identified as the crucial driving factor, followed by isothermally and precipitation, influencing the species' shift towards suitable habitats at higher altitudes. The study can aid policymakers in developing effective conservation strategies to protect Himalayan range-restricted bird species in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37950103, year = {2023}, author = {Nandal, A and Yadav, SS and Nath, AJ}, title = {Correction to: Trees outside forests as climate change mitigation champions: evaluating their carbon sequestration potential and monetary value in Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak (Haryana), India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {12}, pages = {1456}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-023-11994-0}, pmid = {37950103}, issn = {1573-2959}, }
@article {pmid37949987, year = {2023}, author = {Wong, C}, title = {Earth just had its hottest year on record - climate change is to blame.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {623}, number = {7988}, pages = {674-675}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-03523-3}, pmid = {37949987}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Earth, Planet ; *Global Warming/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid37949657, year = {2023}, author = {Sisodiya, SM}, title = {Hot brain: practical climate change advice for neurologists.}, journal = {Practical neurology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/pn-2023-003777}, pmid = {37949657}, issn = {1474-7766}, abstract = {'We are called to be architects of the future, not its victims'-Buckminster FullerPeople with chronic neurological conditions may be vulnerable to change and less able to manage its demands: neurological diseases are among the most burdensome. Whether climate change has particular effects on specific neurological diseases or not, the known impaired resilience to change affecting people with neurological diseases requires neurologists to have awareness of potential climate impacts and their management. Preparedness should include understanding of general national and local alerts and action systems, and the ability to advise patients about managing extreme weather events, particularly heatwaves, but also floods and cold snaps. At the same time, we need more research into the particular consequences of climate change on specific neurological diseases. Climate change is a serious healthcare issue, requiring the neurological community to respond as it would, or did, to other serious challenges, such as COVID-19. As disease experts, we all have a role to play.}, }
@article {pmid37949135, year = {2024}, author = {Navas-Martín, M&#xc1; and Ovalle-Perandones, MA and López-Bueno, JA and Díaz, J and Linares, C and Sánchez-Martínez, G}, title = {Population adaptation to heat as seen through the temperature-mortality relationship, in the context of the impact of global warming on health: A scoping review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {908}, number = {}, pages = {168441}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168441}, pmid = {37949135}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; Temperature ; *Hot Temperature ; *Global Warming ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest threat to human health, with one of its direct effects being global warming and its impact on health. Currently, the world is experiencing an increase in the mean global temperature, but this increase affects different populations to different degrees. This is due to the fact that individual, demographic, geographical and social factors influence vulnerability and the capacity to adapt. Adaptation is the process of adjusting to the current or envisaged climate and its effects, with the aim of mitigating harm and taking advantage of the beneficial opportunities. There are different ways of measuring the effectiveness of adaptation, and the most representative indicator is via the time trend in the temperature-mortality relationship. Despite the rise in the number of studies that have examined the temperature-mortality relationship in recent years, there are very few that have analysed whether a particular population has or has not adapted to heat. We conducted a scoping review that met the following criteria, namely: including all persons; considering the heat adaptation concept; and covering the context of the impact of global warming on health and mortality. A total of 23 studies were selected. This review found very few studies targeting adaptation to heat in the human population and a limited number of countries carrying out research in this field, something that highlights the lack of research in this area. It is therefore crucial for political decision-makers to support studies that serve to enhance our comprehension of long-term adaptation to heat and its impact on the health of the human population.}, }
@article {pmid37948623, year = {2023}, author = {Guo, L and Fang, X}, title = {Mitigation of Fully Fluorinated Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China and Implications for Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {57}, number = {48}, pages = {19487-19496}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.3c02734}, pmid = {37948623}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Gases ; Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Fluorocarbons/analysis ; China ; }, abstract = {Fully fluorinated greenhouse gases (FFGHGs), including sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs), have drawn attention because they have long atmospheric lifetimes (up to thousands of years) and high global warming potential. Targeting SF6, NF3, and four PFCs (CF4, C2F6, C3F8, and c-C4F8), this study projects future FFGHG emission patterns in China, explores their mitigation potential, and evaluates the effects of FFGHG emission reduction on the achievement of the country's carbon neutrality goal and climate change. FFGHG emissions are expected to increase consistently, ranging from 506 to 1356 Mt CO2-eq yr[-1] in 2060 under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. If mitigation strategies are sufficiently employed, FFGHG emissions under three mitigation scenarios: Technologically Feasible 2030, Technologically Feasible 2050, and Technologically Feasible 2060, will eventually decrease to approximately 49-78, 70-110, and 98-164 Mt CO2-eq yr[-1] in 2060, respectively, compared to the BAU scenario. Extensive implementation of FFGHG emission mitigation technologies will curb temperature rise by 0.008-0.013 °C under the slowest mitigation scenario, compared to 0.013-0.026 °C under the BAU scenario. Well-coordinated policies and reforms on FFGHG emission mitigation are recommended to prevent potential adverse effects on the climate to a certain extent.}, }
@article {pmid37947561, year = {2023}, author = {Wuersch, L and Neher, A and Marino, FE and Bamberry, L and Pope, R}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Work Health and Safety in Australia: A Scoping Literature Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {37947561}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Occupational Health ; Workplace ; Occupations ; Australia ; }, abstract = {This scoping review explores the extant literature on climate change impacts on Workplace Health and Safety (WHS) in Australia. It maps the coverage of climate hazards, occupations at risk, and health and socio-economic impacts with the aim of identifying climate change impacts on WHS in Australia and associated knowledge gaps. We used a scoping review approach to identify and investigate 41 scholarly works at the nexus between climate change and WHS in Australia. Thematic template analysis and the NVivo software helped us identify and structure the main themes and systematically document the analysis process. The review highlighted a research focus on the impacts on WHS of heat and extreme weather events resulting from climate change. Agriculture and construction emerged as the most examined occupations, emphasising climate-related diseases and productivity loss. Other climate-related hazards, occupations, and health and socio-economic impacts were largely overlooked in the included research literature. The analysis revealed there is scope for further research relating to climate change impacts on occupational hazards (e.g., air pollution), occupations (e.g., indoor settings at risk), worker health (e.g., injuries), and socio-economic impacts (e.g., change in social practice). Furthermore, the results highlight that the main themes (hazards, occupations, health, and productivity) are interconnected, and the impacts of climate change can be 'cascading', adding complexity and severity. Hence, it is important to look at WHS as a multifaceted phenomenon in a holistic way to understand the risks and support required.}, }
@article {pmid37946432, year = {2023}, author = {Hur, SJ and Kim, JM and Yim, DG and Yoon, Y and Lee, SS and Jo, C}, title = {Impact of livestock industry on climate change : Case Study in South Korea.}, journal = {Animal bioscience}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.5713/ab.23.0256}, pmid = {37946432}, issn = {2765-0189}, abstract = {In recent years, there has been a growing argument attributing the primary cause of global climate change to livestock industry, which has led to the perception that the livestock industry is synonymous with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, a closer examination of the global GHG emission by sector reveals that the energy sector responsible for the majority, accounting for 76.2% of the total, while agriculture contributes 11.9%. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the total GHG emissions associate with the livestock supply chain amount to 14.5%. Within this, emissions from direct sources, such as enteric fermentation and livestock manure treatment, which are not part of the front and rear industries, represent only 7%. Although it is true that the increase in meat consumption driven by global population growth and rising incomes, has contributed to higher methane (CH4) emissions resulting from enteric fermentation in ruminant animals, categorizing the livestock industry as the primary source of GHG emissions oversimplifies a complex issue and disregards objective data. Therefore, it may be a misleading to solely focus on the livestock sector without addressing the significant emissions from the energy sector, which is the largest contributor to GHG emissions. The top priority should be the objective and accurate measurement of GHG emissions, followed by the development and implementation of suitable reduction policies for each industrial sector with significant GHG emissions contributions.}, }
@article {pmid37946380, year = {2023}, author = {Arries-Kleyenstuber, E}, title = {Ethics, care and climate change mitigation: A reflection on what care professionals can do.}, journal = {Nursing ethics}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {479-481}, doi = {10.1177/09697330231179034}, pmid = {37946380}, issn = {1477-0989}, }
@article {pmid37945771, year = {2023}, author = {Khodraz, Z and Akbarian, M and Khoorani, A}, title = {Projecting the impacts of climate change on the wind erosion potential using an ensemble of GCMs in Hormozgan Coastal plains, Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {12}, pages = {1445}, pmid = {37945771}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Wind ; Iran ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Wind erosion is one of the most critical problems in arid and semi-arid regions. The wind transports only dry soil, and no soil with a wet surface can be moved. The study aimed to investigate the changes in wind erosion potential in the coastal plains of Hormozgan province, Iran. Data from four synoptic stations from 1988 to 2017, as well as outputs from four climate models, namely HadGEM-2-CC, CSIRO-MK3- 6-0, ACCESS1-3 and CNRM-CM5, based on two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were used for the analysis. The outputs of climate models were ensembled and downscaled using the Change Factor statistical downscaling method. The downscaled data showed good accuracy in representing the large-scale GCM data. Furthermore, the "Potential of Wind Erosion Occurrence" was calculated for monthly and annual time scales using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test. The results indicated that there were no significant trends in wind erosion occurrence during the base period (i.e., 1988 to 2017). However, it was projected that the "potential for wind erosion occurrence" and the "percentage of windy days associated with drought" would increase in the near future (i.e., 2031 to 2060) under both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Interestingly, both scenarios showed a decreasing trend in wind erosion occurrence in the far future (i.e., 2071 to 2100). This suggests that changes in wind patterns play a significant role in shaping wind erosion potential, while daily precipitation does not have a significant impact on this trend.}, }
@article {pmid37945560, year = {2023}, author = {Spektor, M and Fasolin, GN and Camargo, J}, title = {Climate change beliefs and their correlates in Latin America.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {7241}, pmid = {37945560}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Latin America ; *Politics ; Trust ; }, abstract = {The ability of climate skeptics to block climate action depends on prevailing beliefs among the public. Research in advanced democracies has shown skepticism about the existence, the causes, and the consequences of climate change to be associated with socio-demographic features and political ideology. Yet, little is known about climate-related beliefs elsewhere. We address this gap by mapping beliefs in climate change and their correlates in Latin America. We show skepticism over the existence and anthropogenic origins of climate change to be limited, but identify a high number of skeptics around the severity of its consequences. Furthermore, we show skepticism to be correlated with psychological rather than socio-political factors: individualistic worldviews in particular drive disbelief in the severe consequences of climate change, a worrying finding in contexts where social trust is low. These findings offer a starting point for better addressing the constraining effects of climate skepticism in the Global South.}, }
@article {pmid37945547, year = {2024}, author = {Blenkinsop, S and Wardrope, A and Willis, J and Sisodiya, SM}, title = {Climate change: Attitudes and concerns of, and learnings from, people with neurological conditions, carers, and health care professionals.}, journal = {Epilepsia}, volume = {65}, number = {1}, pages = {95-106}, doi = {10.1111/epi.17824}, pmid = {37945547}, issn = {1528-1167}, support = {//Epilepsy Society/ ; //Health Education England/NIHR Academic Clinical Fellowship/ ; NE/R01079X/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Concern about climate change among the general public is acknowledged by surveys. The health care sector must play its part in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to a changing climate, which will require the support of its stakeholders including those with epilepsy, who may be especially vulnerable. It is important to understand this community's attitudes and concerns about climate change and societal responses.<br><br>METHODS: A survey was made available to more than 100&#x2009;000 people among a section of the neurological community (patients, carers, and clinicians), focused on epilepsy. We applied quantitative analysis of Likert scale responses supported by qualitative analyses of free-text questions with crossover analyses to identify consonance and dissonance between the two approaches.<br><br>RESULTS: A small proportion of potential respondents completed the survey; of 126 respondents, 52 had epilepsy and 56 explicitly declared no illness. The survey indicated concern about the impact of climate change on health within this neurological community focused on epilepsy. More than half of respondents considered climate change to have been bad for their health, rising to 68% in a subgroup with a neurological condition; over 80% expected climate change to harm their health in future. Most (>75%) believed that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will lead to improved health and well-being. The crossover analysis identified cost and accessibility as significant barriers.<br><br>SIGNIFICANCE: The high level of concern about climate change impacts and positive attitudes toward policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions provide support for climate action from the epilepsy community. However, if policies are implemented without considering the needs of patients, they risk being exclusionary, worsening inequalities, and further threatening neurological health and well-being.}, }
@article {pmid37944692, year = {2024}, author = {Thapliyal, A and Kimothi, S and Dumka, UC and Chandra Das, I}, title = {Climate change-derived environmental and physical factors influencing the socioeconomic development in the Himalayan region.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {241}, number = {}, pages = {117552}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117552}, pmid = {37944692}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Floods ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Spatio-temporal fluctuation of climatic variables with the terrain characteristics and their inter-relationship is a priority for predicting flash-flood-induced landslide hazards over the fragile Himalayas. The present study addressed this anxiety by assimilating satellite data products and auxiliary datasets in the Bhagirathi River basin of the Indian Himalayas. Snow Covered Area (SCA) is a critical indicator of the ecosystem that influenced the flash flood along different terrain features such as Altitude, Hill-Gradient, and Aspect. GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) technique is used to analyze the possible landslide zones and flood extent along the river basin, and MODIS Terra (MOD10A2) data products derived annual SCA is 4278 km[2] for the year 2021, the analysis of geospatial maps at 25° intervals of Altitude, hill-gradient, and Aspect. The SCA distribution reveals that apart from the Altitude, the Aspect of the hill gradient significantly impacts snow accumulation. Hill-Gradient, ranging from 13.06 to 19.52, occupies 24.7% of the total area, and 45.3 to 51.83 are found without snow. The highest variation of SCA is along the Western direction (9.19%), followed by North-East (8.79%), while the least (3.78%) variance is in the Southwest direction. Additionally, it was found that many bridges, roads, and other properties are under threat in this study area, even with a moderate flash flood. Findings from this study provide the spatiotemporal status of SCA in various geological stress conditions during the last decades and probable landslide zones. This will be a preliminary pathway to policymakers in rehabilitation and early evacuation of human lives due to flash flood occurrence.}, }
@article {pmid37944272, year = {2023}, author = {Forzano, F and Babb de Villiers, C and Farley, M and Fowler, H and Taylor, RW}, title = {A genomic perspective on climate change.}, journal = {EBioMedicine}, volume = {98}, number = {}, pages = {104871}, pmid = {37944272}, issn = {2352-3964}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Genomics ; }, }
@article {pmid37943900, year = {2023}, author = {Agathokleous, E}, title = {Light pollution driven by climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {382}, number = {6671}, pages = {655}, doi = {10.1126/science.adk7733}, pmid = {37943900}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid37943868, year = {2023}, author = {Bayatavrkeshi, M and Imteaz, MA and Kisi, O and Farahani, M and Ghabaei, M and Al-Janabi, AMS and Hashim, BM and Al-Ramadan, B and Yaseen, ZM}, title = {Drought trends projection under future climate change scenarios for Iran region.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {e0290698}, pmid = {37943868}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Droughts ; *Climate Change ; Iran ; Weather ; Models, Statistical ; Water ; }, abstract = {The study highlights the potential characteristics of droughts under future climate change scenarios. For this purpose, the changes in Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) under the A1B, A2, and B1 climate change scenarios in Iran were assessed. The daily weather data of 30 synoptic stations from 1992 to 2010 were analyzed. The HadCM3 statistical model in the LARS-WG was used to predict the future weather conditions between 2011 and 2112, for three 34-year periods; 2011-2045, 2046-2079, and 2080-2112. In regard to the findings, the upward trend of the potential evapotranspiration in parallel with the downward trend of the precipitation in the next 102 years in three scenarios to the base timescale was transparent. The frequency of the SPEI in the base month indicated that 17.02% of the studied months faced the drought. Considering the scenarios of climate change for three 34-year periods (i.e., 2011-2045, 2046-2079, and 2080-2112) the average percentages of potential drought occurrences for all the stations in the next three periods will be 8.89, 16.58, and 27.27 respectively under the B1 scenario. While the predicted values under the A1B scenario are 7.63, 12.66, and 35.08%respectively. The relevant findings under the A2 scenario are 6.73, 10.16, 40.8%. As a consequence, water shortage would be more serious in the third period of study under all three scenarios. The percentage of drought occurrence in the future years under the A2, B1, and A1B will be 19.23%, 17.74%, and 18.84%, respectively which confirms the worst condition under the A2 scenario. For all stations, the number of months with moderate drought was substantially more than severe and extreme droughts. Considering the A2 scenario as a high emission scenario, the analysis of SPEI frequency illustrated that the proportion of dry periods in regions with humid and cool climate is more than hot and warm climates; however, the duration of dry periods in warmer climates is longer than colder climates. Moreover, the temporal distribution of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration indicated that in a large number of stations, there is a significant difference between them in the middle months of the year, which justifies the importance of prudent water management in warm months.}, }
@article {pmid37943470, year = {2023}, author = {Han, J and Singh, VP}, title = {A review of widely used drought indices and the challenges of drought assessment under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {12}, pages = {1438}, pmid = {37943470}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Environmental Monitoring ; Global Warming ; Anthropogenic Effects ; }, abstract = {Under climate change, drought assessment, which can address nonstationarity in drought indicators and anthropogenic implications, is required to mitigate drought impacts. However, the development of drought indices for a reliable drought assessment is a challenging task in the warming climate. Thus, this study discusses factors that should be considered in developing drought indices in changing climate. Inconsistent drought assessment can be obtained, depending on the baseline period defined in developing drought indices. Therefore, the baseline period should represent the contemporary climate but should also correspond to long enough observations for stable parameter estimation. The importance of accurate potential evapotranspiration (PET) for drought indices becomes higher under a warming climate. Although the Penman-Monteith method yields accurate PET values, depending on the climate and vegetation cover, other suitable PET formulas, such as the Hargreaves method, with fewer hydrometeorological data can be used. Since a single drought index is not enough to properly monitor drought evolution, a method that can objectively combine multiple drought indices is required. Besides, quantifying anthropogenic impacts, which can add more uncertainty, on drought assessment is also important to adapt to the changing drought conditions and minimize human-induced drought. Drought is expected to occur more frequently with more severe, longer, and larger areal extent under global warming, since a more arid background, which climate change will provide, intensifies land-atmosphere feedback, leading to the desiccation of land and drying atmosphere. Thus, an accurate drought assessment, based on robust drought indices, is required.}, }
@article {pmid37943146, year = {2023}, author = {Kishor, PBK and Guddimalli, R and Kulkarni, J and Singam, P and Somanaboina, AK and Nandimandalam, T and Patil, S and Polavarapu, R and Suravajhala, P and Sreenivasulu, N and Penna, S}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Altered Fruit Quality with Organoleptic, Health Benefit, and Nutritional Attributes.}, journal = {Journal of agricultural and food chemistry}, volume = {71}, number = {46}, pages = {17510-17527}, doi = {10.1021/acs.jafc.3c03312}, pmid = {37943146}, issn = {1520-5118}, mesh = {*Anthocyanins/metabolism ; *Fruit/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Abscisic Acid/metabolism ; Carbohydrates ; }, abstract = {As a consequence of global climate change, acute water deficit conditions, soil salinity, and high temperature have been on the rise in their magnitude and frequency, which have been found to impact plant growth and development negatively. However, recent evidence suggests that many fruit plants that face moderate abiotic stresses can result in beneficial effects on the postharvest storage characters of the fruits. Salinity, drought, and high temperature conditions stimulate the synthesis of abscisic acid (ABA), and secondary metabolites, which are vital for fruit quality. The secondary metabolites like phenolic acids and anthocyanins that accumulate under abiotic stress conditions have antioxidant activity, and therefore, such fruits have health benefits too. It has been noticed that fruits accumulate more sugar and anthocyanins owing to upregulation of phenylpropanoid pathway enzymes. The novel information that has been generated thus far indicates that the growth environment during fruit development influences the quality components of the fruits. But the quality depends on the trade-offs between productivity, plant defense, and the frequency, duration, and intensity of stress. In this review, we capture the current knowledge of the irrigation practices for optimizing fruit production in arid and semiarid regions and enhancement in the quality of fruit with the application of exogenous ABA and identify gaps that exist in our understanding of fruit quality under abiotic stress conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37941497, year = {2023}, author = {Londe, DW and Davis, CA and Loss, SR and Robertson, EP and Haukos, DA and Hovick, TJ}, title = {Climate change causes declines and greater extremes in wetland inundation in a region important for wetland birds.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e2930}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2930}, pmid = {37941497}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {G21AC10387-00//South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center/ ; }, abstract = {Wetland ecosystems are vital for maintaining global biodiversity, as they provide important stopover sites for many species of migrating wetland-associated birds. However, because weather determines their hydrologic cycles, wetlands are highly vulnerable to effects of climate change. Although changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change are expected to reduce inundation of wetlands, few efforts have been made to quantify how these changes will influence the availability of stopover sites for migratory wetland birds. Additionally, few studies have evaluated how climate change will influence interannual variability or the frequency of extremes in wetland availability. For spring and fall bird migration in seven ecoregions in the south-central Great Plains of North America, we developed predictive models associating abundance of inundated wetlands with a suite of weather and land cover variables. We then used these models to generate predictions of wetland inundation at the end of the century (2069-2099) under future climate change scenarios. Climate models predicted the average number of inundated wetlands will likely decline during both spring and fall migration periods, with declines being greatest in the eastern ecoregions of the southern Great Plains. However, the magnitude of predicted declines varied considerably across climate models and ecoregions, with uncertainty among climate models being greatest in the High Plains ecoregion. Most ecoregions also were predicted to experience more-frequent extremely dry years (i.e., years with extremely low wetland abundances), but the projected change in interannual variability of wetland inundation was relatively small and varied across ecoregions and seasons. Because the south-central Great Plains represents an important link along the migratory routes of many wetland-dependent avian species, future declines in wetland inundation and more frequent periods of only a few wetlands being inundated will result in an uncertain future for migratory birds as they experience reduced availability of wetland stopover habitat across their migration pathways.}, }
@article {pmid37940796, year = {2023}, author = {Kumari, A and Dash, M and Singh, SK and Jagadesh, M and Mathpal, B and Mishra, PK and Pandey, SK and Verma, KK}, title = {Soil microbes: a natural solution for mitigating the impact of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {12}, pages = {1436}, pmid = {37940796}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Soil/chemistry ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Soil Microbiology ; Environmental Monitoring ; }, abstract = {Soil microbes are microscopic organisms that inhabit the soil and play a significant role in various ecological processes. They are essential for nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration, and maintaining soil health. Importantly, soil microbes have the potential to sequester carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through processes like carbon fixation and storage in organic matter. Unlocking the potential of microbial-driven carbon storage holds the key to revolutionizing climate-smart agricultural practices, paving the way for sustainable productivity and environmental conservation. A fascinating tale of nature's unsung heroes is revealed by delving into the realm of soil microbes. The guardians of the Earth are these tiny creatures that live beneath our feet and discreetly work their magic to fend off the effects of climate change. These microbes are also essential for plant growth enhancement through their roles in nutrient uptake, nitrogen fixation, and synthesis of growth-promoting chemicals. By understanding and managing soil microbial communities, it is possible to improve soil health, soil water-holding capacity, and promote plant growth in agricultural and natural ecosystems. Added to it, these microbes play an important role in biodegradation, bioremediation of heavy metals, and phytoremediation, which in turn helps in treating the contaminated soils. Unfortunately, climate change events affect the diversity, composition, and metabolism of these microbes. Unlocking the microbial potential demands an interdisciplinary endeavor spanning microbiology, ecology, agronomy, and climate science. It is a call to arms for the scientific community to recognize soil microbes as invaluable partners in the fight against climate change. By implementing data-driven land management strategies and pioneering interventions, we possess the means to harness their capabilities, paving the way for climate mitigation, sustainable agriculture, and promote ecosystem resilience in the imminent future.}, }
@article {pmid37940212, year = {2023}, author = {Li, A and Toll, M and Bentley, R}, title = {Mapping social vulnerability indicators to understand the health impacts of climate change: a scoping review.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {e925-e937}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00216-4}, pmid = {37940212}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Social Vulnerability ; *Climate Change ; Policy ; }, abstract = {The need to assess and measure how social vulnerability influences the health impacts of climate change has resulted in a rapidly growing body of research literature. To date, there has been no overarching, systematic examination of where this evidence is concentrated and what inferences can be made. This scoping review provides an overview of studies published between 2012 and 2022 on social vulnerability to the negative health effects of climate change. Of the 2115 studies identified from four bibliographic databases (Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and CAB Direct), 230 that considered indicators of social vulnerability to climate change impacts on health outcomes were selected for review. Frequency and thematic analyses were conducted to establish the scope of the social vulnerability indicators, climate change impacts, and health conditions studied, and the substantive themes and findings of this research. 113 indicators of social vulnerability covering 15 themes were identified, with a small set of indicators receiving most of the research attention, including age, sex, ethnicity, education, income, poverty, unemployment, access to green and blue spaces, access to health services, social isolation, and population density. The results reveal an undertheorisation and few indicators that conceptualise and operationalise social vulnerability beyond individual sociodemographic characteristics by identifying structural and institutional dimensions of vulnerability, and a preponderance of social vulnerability research in high-income countries. This Review highlights the need for future research, data infrastructure, and policy attention to address structural, institutional, and sociopolitical conditions, which will better support climate resilience and adaptation planning.}, }
@article {pmid37939473, year = {2024}, author = {Schröder, LS and Bhalerao, AK and Kabir, KH and Scheffran, J and Schneider, UA}, title = {Managing uphill cultivation under climate change - An assessment of adaptation decisions among tribal farmers in Nagaland state of India.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {349}, number = {}, pages = {119473}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119473}, pmid = {37939473}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; *Farmers ; *Climate Change ; Farms ; Agriculture/methods ; Soil ; India ; }, abstract = {Tribal farmers in the Himalayas are vulnerable to climatic changes, as their rain-fed cultivation systems, practiced on steep, sloping terrain, are susceptible to changes in rainfall while at the same time being the primary means of livelihood. Soil and water conservation practices (SWCP) can improve the resilience of these cultivation systems to adverse climatic conditions. However, little is known about adaptation within these tribal farming communities. This is the first empirical study on the adaptation decisions of tribal farmers in the Himalayan uplands of Northeast India. Starting from the analysis of future climate risks, we surveyed 372 tribal farmers in Nagaland state to analyze perceived climate and environmental changes in relation to socio-demographic factors. We estimate current adoption rates of SWCP together with farmers' goals and values and employ a binary logit model (BLM) to quantify the influence of diverse factors on adaptation decisions. Our results show that increases in temperatures and crop diseases were the most perceived changes by tribal farmers. Climate projections indicate that precipitation amount and intensity, along with temperatures, will increase towards the end of the century, underlining the importance of SWCP. However, all considered SWCP were employed by less than half of the tribal farmers. Adoption probabilities for all practices were significantly increased when farmers participated in agricultural training. After that, participation in a civil society organization, livestock ownership, high-altitude locations, and perceived increases in droughts were found to increase adoption probabilities significantly, while socio-demographic factors were of only minor importance. If the most effective factor was employed to all farmers, average adoption rates of SWCP could at least double. Adoption decisions were mainly motivated by improving livelihoods, sustaining natural resources, reducing workload, and preserving cultural aspects of cultivation. This research contributes to understanding adaptation decisions of tribal farmers and quantifies the untapped potential for climate change adaptation of marginalized and climate-vulnerable farming communities in mountain regions.}, }
@article {pmid37939190, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, T and Li, D and East, AE and Kettner, AJ and Best, J and Ni, J and Lu, X}, title = {Shifted sediment-transport regimes by climate change and amplified hydrological variability in cryosphere-fed rivers.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {45}, pages = {eadi5019}, pmid = {37939190}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Climate change affects cryosphere-fed rivers and alters seasonal sediment dynamics, affecting cyclical fluvial material supply and year-round water-food-energy provisions to downstream communities. Here, we demonstrate seasonal sediment-transport regime shifts from the 1960s to 2000s in four cryosphere-fed rivers characterized by glacial, nival, pluvial, and mixed regimes, respectively. Spring sees a shift toward pluvial-dominated sediment transport due to less snowmelt and more erosive rainfall. Summer is characterized by intensified glacier meltwater pulses and pluvial events that exceptionally increase sediment fluxes. Our study highlights that the increases in hydroclimatic extremes and cryosphere degradation lead to amplified variability in fluvial fluxes and higher summer sediment peaks, which can threaten downstream river infrastructure safety and ecosystems and worsen glacial/pluvial floods. We further offer a monthly-scale sediment-availability-transport model that can reproduce such regime shifts and thus help facilitate sustainable reservoir operation and river management in wider cryospheric regions under future climate and hydrological change.}, }
@article {pmid37937464, year = {2023}, author = {Feng, Y and Xiong, Y and Hall-Spencer, JM and Liu, K and Beardall, J and Gao, K and Ge, J and Xu, J and Gao, G}, title = {Shift in algal blooms from micro- to macroalgae around China with increasing eutrophication and climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e17018}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.17018}, pmid = {37937464}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2022YFC3105304//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 42076154//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; JSZRHYKJ202206//Natural Resources Development (Innovation Project of Marine Science and Technology) of Jiangsu Province/ ; IEC\NSFC\181187//Royal Society China-UK International Exchanges/ ; JPJSCCA20210006//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science ICONA Program/ ; }, abstract = {Blooms of microalgal red tides and macroalgae (e.g., green and golden tides caused by Ulva and Sargassum) have caused widespread problems around China in recent years, but there is uncertainty around what triggers these blooms and how they interact. Here, we use 30 years of monitoring data to help answer these questions, focusing on the four main species of microalgae Prorocentrum donghaiense, Karenia mikimotoi, Noctiluca scintillans, and Skeletonema costatum) associated with red tides in the region. The frequency of red tides increased from 1991 to 2003 and then decreased until 2020, with S. costatum red tides exhibiting the highest rate of decrease. Green tides started to occur around China in 1999 and the frequency of green tides has since been on the increase. Golden tides were first reported to occur around China in 2012. The frequency of macroalgal blooms has a negative linear relationship with the frequency and coverage of red tides around China, and a positive correlation with total nitrogen and phosphorus loads as well as with atmospheric CO2 and sea surface temperature (SST). Increased outbreaks of macroalgal blooms are very likely due to worsening levels of eutrophication, combined with rising CO2 and SST, which contribute to the reduced frequency of red tides. The increasing grazing rate of microzooplankton also results in the decline in areas affected by red tides. This study shows a clear shift of algal blooms from microalgae to macroalgae around China over the past 30 years driven by the combination of eutrophication, climate change, and grazing stress, indicating a fundamental change in coastal systems in the region.}, }
@article {pmid37936933, year = {2023}, author = {Mo, Y and Li, X and Guo, Y and Fu, Y}, title = {Warming increases the differences among spring phenology models under future climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1266801}, pmid = {37936933}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Phenological models are built upon an understanding of the influence of environmental factors on plant phenology, and serve as effective tools for predicting plant phenological changes. However, the differences in phenological model predictive performance under different climate change scenarios have been rarely studied. In this study, we parameterized thirteen spring phenology models, including six one-phase models and seven two-phase models, by combining phenological observations and meteorological data. Using climatic data from two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, namely SSP126 (high mitigation and low emission) and SSP585 (no mitigation and high emission), we predicted spring phenology in Germany from 2021 to 2100, and compared the impacts of dormancy phases and driving factors on model predictive performance. The results showed that the average correlation coefficient between the predicted start of growing season (SOS) by the 13 models and the observed values exceeded 0.72, with the highest reaching 0.80. All models outperformed the NULL model (Mean of SOS), and the M1 model (driven by photoperiod and forcing temperature) performed the best for all the tree species. In the SSP126 scenario, the average SOS advanced initially and then gradually shifted towards a delay starting around 2070. In the SSP585 scenario, the average SOS advanced gradually at a rate of approximately 0.14 days per year. Moreover, the standard deviation of the simulated SOS by the 13 spring phenology models exhibited a significant increase at a rate of 0.04 days per year. On average, two-phase models exhibited larger standard deviations than one-phase models after approximately 2050. Models driven solely by temperature showed larger standard deviations after 2060 compared to models driven by both temperature and photoperiod. Our findings suggest investigating the release mechanisms of endodormancy phase and incorporating new insights into future phenological models to better simulate the changes in plant phenology.}, }
@article {pmid37936812, year = {2023}, author = {Lin, L and Jiang, XL and Guo, KQ and Byrne, A and Deng, M}, title = {Climate change impacts the distribution of Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis (Fagaceae), a keystone lineage in East Asian evergreen broadleaved forests.}, journal = {Plant diversity}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {552-568}, pmid = {37936812}, issn = {2468-2659}, abstract = {East Asian evergreen broadleaved forests (EBFLs) harbor high species richness, but these ecosystems are severely impacted by global climate change and deforestation. Conserving and managing EBLFs requires understanding dominant tree distribution dynamics. In this study, we used 29 species in Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis-a keystone lineage in East Asian EBLFs-as proxies to predict EBLF distribution dynamics using species distribution models (SDMs). We examined climatic niche overlap, similarity, and equivalency among seven biogeographical regions' species using 'ecospat'. We also estimated the effectiveness of protected areas in the predicted range to elucidate priority conservation regions. Our results showed that the climatic niches of most geographical groups differ. The western species under the Indian summer monsoon regime were mainly impacted by temperature factors, whereas precipitation impacted the eastern species under the East Asian summer monsoon regime. Our simulation predicted a northward range expansion of section Cyclobalanopsis between 2081 and 2100, except for the ranges of the three Himalayan species analyzed, which might shrink significantly. The greatest shift of highly suitable areas was predicted for the species in the South Pacific, with a centroid shift of over 300 km. Remarkably, only 7.56% of suitable habitat is currently inside protected areas, and the percentage is predicted to continue declining in the future. To better conserve Asian EBLFs, establishing nature reserves in their northern distribution ranges, and transplanting the populations with predicted decreasing numbers and degraded habitats to their future highly suitable areas, should be high-priority objectives.}, }
@article {pmid37936058, year = {2023}, author = {Cordeiro, GD and Dötterl, S}, title = {Global warming impairs the olfactory floral signaling in strawberry.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {549}, pmid = {37936058}, issn = {1471-2229}, support = {M2676-B29//Austrian Science Fund/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Fragaria ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; *Volatile Organic Compounds/analysis ; Flowers/physiology ; Pollination ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global warming is expected to impact the chemical communication between flowering plants and their pollinators. Surprisingly, it is unknown whether and how temperature-induced changes in scent emission affect pollinator behavior. Strawberry (Fragaria x ananassa) is a plant primarily pollinated by bees and hoverflies, with the former group being particularly attracted to the floral scent they emit.<br><br>RESULTS: Using chemical analytical, electrophysiological, and behavioral approaches we tested whether temperature-induced shifts in floral scent of strawberry affect chemical communication with its main bee pollinators (Apis mellifera, Bombus terrestris, Osmia bicornis). While strawberry flowers in the optimum scenario released 10.4 ng/flower/hour, mainly p-anisaldehyde (81%) and seven other scent compounds, in the warmer scenario, the flowers did not emit any detectable scent. In the behavioral experiments, the pollinators were attracted by the scents of the optimum scenario.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We predict that the absence of detectable scent emissions from strawberry plants grown under heat stress will reduce the attractiveness of the flowers to the bee pollinators. Our study raises important ecological and agricultural questions, as decreased attractiveness of flowers to pollinators might potentially lead to insufficient bee pollination, with potential negative consequences for ecosystem functioning and crop yields, particularly in regions reliant on bees as primary pollinators. Given that our study centered on bee pollinators, it is needed to conduct further research to evaluate the impact on hoverflies.}, }
@article {pmid37935263, year = {2024}, author = {Niu, K and Zhong, J and Hu, X}, title = {Impacts of climate change-induced heat stress on pig productivity in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {908}, number = {}, pages = {168215}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168215}, pmid = {37935263}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Swine ; *Climate Change ; Heat-Shock Response ; Agriculture ; Efficiency ; *Heat Stress Disorders/veterinary ; China ; }, abstract = {The economic impacts of climate-induced heat stress on pig farming have not been sufficiently investigated, despite the significant threat it poses to the industry. In this study, we coupled consecutive years of county-scale meteorological data with operational-level economic data to estimate the impact of climate-induced heat stress on the productivity of the Chinese pig industry using a stochastic frontier production function model. Based on model results, we projected the impact of heat stress on pig production in 2030 and 2050 with and without technological advances. Results showed that heat stress has a significant negative impact on pig production, with southern regions being more affected. However, considering technological advances, losses will decrease by 21 % and 52 %, respectively, compared with the scenario without technological advances. Simultaneously, we calculated the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation and found that increasing production inputs to reduce production losses from heat stress costs one-fifth of forgoing production losses. Therefore, we recommend a positive climate change response strategy.}, }
@article {pmid37934780, year = {2023}, author = {Li, Y and Wilson, D and Grundel, R and Campbell, S and Knight, J and Perry, J and Hellmann, JJ}, title = {Extinction risk modeling predicts range-wide differences of climate change impact on Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {e0262382}, pmid = {37934780}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; United States ; *Butterflies ; Climate Change ; Endangered Species ; Ecosystem ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {The Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis, or Kbb), a federally endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in decline due to habitat loss, can be further threatened by climate change. Evaluating how climate shapes the population trend of the Kbb can help in the development of adaptive management plans. Current demographic models for the Kbb incorporate in either a density-dependent or density-independent manner. We instead created mixed density-dependent and -independent (hereafter "endo-exogenous") models for Kbbs based on long-term count data of five isolated populations in the upper Midwest, United States during two flight periods (May to June and July to August) to understand how the growth rates were related to previous population densities and abiotic environmental conditions, including various macro- and micro-climatic variables. Our endo-exogenous extinction risk models showed that both density-dependent and -independent components were vital drivers of the historical population trends. However, climate change impacts were not always detrimental to Kbbs. Despite the decrease of population growth rate with higher overwinter temperatures and spring precipitations in the first generation, the growth rate increased with higher summer temperatures and precipitations in the second generation. We concluded that finer spatiotemporally scaled models could be more rewarding in guiding the decision-making process of Kbb restoration under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37933873, year = {2023}, author = {Fertelli, TK}, title = {Awareness, worry, and hope regarding climate change among nurses: A cross-sectional study.}, journal = {Archives of environmental &amp; occupational health}, volume = {78}, number = {7-8}, pages = {413-422}, doi = {10.1080/19338244.2023.2278521}, pmid = {37933873}, issn = {2154-4700}, mesh = {Humans ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Climate Change ; Anxiety ; *Nurses ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to determine nurses' awareness, worry and hope levels about climate change.<br><br>DESIGN AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted with 511 nurses. Data were collected using a Personal Information Form, the Global Climate Change Awareness Scale, the Climate Change Worry Scale, and the Climate Change Hope Scale.<br><br>FINDINGS: The mean scores of the participating nurses obtained from the Climate Change Awareness Scale (71.72&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;18.11) and Climate Change Worry Scale (35.36&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;10.51) and Climate Change Hope Scale (38.67&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;8.80) were moderate, and there was a significant positive correlation between them.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The nurses who participated in this study had moderate levels of climate change-related awareness, worry, and hope. As their climate change awareness scores increased, their worry and hope scores also increased. Interventions that will raise climate change awareness in nurses such as education programs and awareness campaigns may increase their levels of worry and hope that will mobilize them for the solution to the climate change problem.}, }
@article {pmid37932448, year = {2023}, author = {Ferrante, L and Rojas-Ahumada, D and Menin, M and Fearnside, PM}, title = {Climate change in the Central Amazon and its impacts on frog populations.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {12}, pages = {1421}, pmid = {37932448}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Temperature ; Anura ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Frog population declines have already been observed in the central Amazon even for common species that are considered not to be in danger of extinction. The Amazon is close to its limit of tolerated deforestation, and parts of the forest have already been modified by climate change, which raises questions about how the fauna in these areas would adapt to climate changes by the middle and the end of this century. In this study we used population density data on seven species of Amazonian frogs and analyzed the relationship between the activity of these species and temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. We also used the least-squares method with logarithmic models to assess whether climate change projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would be an indicator of the population dynamics of these species. Our results suggest that even common species may be may experience population declines and extinction in the next decades due to climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid37931921, year = {2023}, author = {McKelvey, D}, title = {Essential medicines lists in an era of escalating climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {383}, number = {}, pages = {2552}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.p2552}, pmid = {37931921}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; World Health Organization ; *Drugs, Essential ; }, }
@article {pmid37931139, year = {2023}, author = {Quigley, KM}, title = {Breeding and Selecting Corals Resilient to Global Warming.}, journal = {Annual review of animal biosciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-animal-021122-093315}, pmid = {37931139}, issn = {2165-8110}, abstract = {Selective breeding of resilient organisms is an emerging topic in marine conservation. It can help us predict how species will adapt in the future and how we can help restore struggling populations effectively in the present. Scleractinian corals represent a potential tractable model system given their widescale phenotypic plasticity across fitness-related traits and a reproductive life history based on mass synchronized spawning. Here, I explore the justification for breeding in corals, identify underutilized pathways of acclimation, and highlight avenues for quantitative targeted breeding from the coral host and symbiont perspective. Specifically, the facilitation of enhanced heat tolerance by targeted breeding of plasticity mechanisms is underutilized. Evidence from theoretical genetics identifies potential pitfalls, including inattention to physical and genetic characteristics of the receiving environment. Three criteria for breeding emerge from this synthesis: selection from warm, variable reefs that have survived disturbance. This information will be essential to protect what we have and restore what we can. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Animal Biosciences, Volume 12 is February 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.}, }
@article {pmid37928894, year = {2023}, author = {Aguilera, J and Ibarra-Mejia, G and Johnson, M}, title = {Editorial: The impact of climate change on allergic disease.}, journal = {Frontiers in allergy}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {1246899}, pmid = {37928894}, issn = {2673-6101}, }
@article {pmid37928793, year = {2023}, author = {Hon, BW}, title = {Cultured Meat and Malaysia's Quest for Food Security and Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {The Malaysian journal of medical sciences : MJMS}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {236-237}, pmid = {37928793}, issn = {1394-195X}, }
@article {pmid37928030, year = {2023}, author = {Mobeen, M and Kabir, KH and Schneider, UA and Ahmed, T and Scheffran, J}, title = {Sustainable livelihood capital and climate change adaptation in Pakistan's agriculture: Structural equation modeling analysis in the VIABLE framework.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {e20818}, pmid = {37928030}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study aims to assess the role of sustainable livelihood capital, the mediation of investments and farming purposes, and the moderation of climatic and non-climatic factors in the adaptation process, particularly in the aspects of Crop, Farm, Irrigation, and Economic Management. Moreover, guided by the VIABLE (Values and Investments for Agent-Based Interaction and Learning in Environmental Systems) framework, we analyze stakeholders' actions, priorities, and goals in the climate change adaptation process. A structured questionnaire was designed based on a five-point Likert scale covering the concepts of livelihood capital, climate change adaptation, investment priorities, farming constraints, and farmers' decision-making factors. Field data were collected from 800 farmers during December 2021 to February 2022 in the irrigated agricultural regions in the Indus Plain of the Punjab and Sindh provinces, Pakistan. We employed the Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling approach to the VIABLE framework (VIABLE-SEM) to analyze the collected data. The results confirm livelihood capital as the most significant determinant (beta = 0.57, effect size = 0.503) for farmers' adaptation strategies in the Indus plain. Other variables, such as the principal purpose of farming, available investment options, natural and human constraints, appear less important. We identified 13 significant viability pathways that show investment priorities, farming purposes, and constraints faced by the farmers in climate change adaptation. The study also found that non-climatic factors negatively influence (beta = -0.156) the relationship between capital and adaptation, while climatic factors positively influence (beta = 0.050) this relationship. Interestingly, the presence of these influencing factors increases the adaptive capacity of farmers. These findings have important implications for policymakers and researchers in designing and implementing effective climate change adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector of Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid37927330, year = {2023}, author = {Cheung, WWL and Maire, E and Oyinlola, MA and Robinson, JPW and Graham, NAJ and Lam, VWY and MacNeil, MA and Hicks, CC}, title = {Climate change exacerbates nutrient disparities from seafood.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {1242-1249}, pmid = {37927330}, issn = {1758-678X}, abstract = {Seafood is an important source of bioavailable micronutrients supporting human health, yet it is unclear how micronutrient production has changed in the past or how climate change will influence its availability. Here combining reconstructed fisheries databases and predictive models, we assess nutrient availability from fisheries and mariculture in the past and project their futures under climate change. Since the 1990s, availabilities of iron, calcium and omega-3 from seafood for direct human consumption have increased but stagnated for protein. Under climate change, nutrient availability is projected to decrease disproportionately in tropical low-income countries that are already highly dependent on seafood-derived nutrients. At 4 [o]C of warming, nutrient availability is projected to decline by ~30% by 2100 in low income countries, while at 1.5-2.0 [o]C warming, decreases are projected to be ~10%. We demonstrate the importance of effective mitigation to support nutritional security of vulnerable nations and global health equity.}, }
@article {pmid37923592, year = {2023}, author = {Kim, J and Zaitchik, B and Waugh, D}, title = {How Does Climate Change Affect the Upper Airway?.}, journal = {Otolaryngologic clinics of North America}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.otc.2023.09.008}, pmid = {37923592}, issn = {1557-8259}, abstract = {There is mounting evidence that climate change is having a significant influence on exacerbations of airway disease. We herein explore the physical factors of carbon dioxide, temperature increases, and humidity on intensifying allergen and fungal growth, and worsening air quality. The direct influence of these factors on promoting allergic rhinitis, chronic rhinosinusitis, and allergic fungal rhinosinusitis is reviewed.}, }
@article {pmid37923396, year = {2023}, author = {Gray, J and Dunn, J}, title = {Optimizing Crop Plant Stomatal Density to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change.}, journal = {Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1101/cshperspect.a041672}, pmid = {37923396}, issn = {1943-0264}, abstract = {Plants take up carbon dioxide, and lose water, through pores on their leaf surfaces called stomata. We have a good understanding of the biochemical signals that control the production of stomata, and over the past decade, these have been manipulated to produce crops with fewer stomata. Crops with abnormally low stomatal densities require less water to produce the same yield and have enhanced drought tolerance. These "water-saver" crops also have improved salinity tolerance and are expected to have increased resistance to some diseases. We calculate that the widespread adoption of water-saver crops could lead to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to a maximum of 0.5 GtCO2/yr and thus could help to mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security through protecting yields in stressful environments and requiring fewer inputs.}, }
@article {pmid37922827, year = {2023}, author = {Buguet, A and Reis, J and Radomski, MW}, title = {Sleep and global warming: How will we sleep when the Earth is hotter?.}, journal = {Journal of the neurological sciences}, volume = {454}, number = {}, pages = {120859}, doi = {10.1016/j.jns.2023.120859}, pmid = {37922827}, issn = {1878-5883}, mesh = {Animals ; Young Adult ; Humans ; *Global Warming ; *Hot Temperature ; Sleep/physiology ; Climate Change ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Societal concern about climate change and global warming has grown worldwide along with the concomitant awareness that health will be impacted deeply. Among living beings, humans have quite large capacities for adaptation to varied temperature conditions. Despite their tropical origin, they live under all Earth climates, such as polar, temperate, altitude, arid, and tropical climates, using a wide range of behavioral and physiological adaptive responses. We address the adaptive abilities of human sleep-wake regulation and its interplay with thermoregulation under different natural climates. Sleep represents one-third of our living time and is also a major determinant of morbidity and mortality; shortening sleep duration increases mortality and multimorbidity. In addition, major advances in sleep neurology have occurred in the last decades. Some have been extensively reviewed, notably comparative sleep physiology among animals, allowing one to hypothesize about the functions of the different sleep states, as well as their relation to cognitive neuroscience or body biorhythms. However, the question of the sleep adaptive capacity of humans to global warming has barely been addressed. We examine "normal" sleep and thermoregulation in young adults residing in temperate conditions. We then review the sleep and thermoregulatory reactions under various climatic conditions, demonstrating the role of sleep changes as potent adaptive responses to living under natural hot climatic conditions. As a result, we show that humans are well-equipped to adapt to severe climates.}, }
@article {pmid37925613, year = {2023}, author = {Dittmer, LD and Reimer-Watts, K and Dobai, J and Riemer, M}, title = {Contributions, missed opportunities, and future directions: A critical reflection on global climate change and environmental sustainability in AJCP over five decades.}, journal = {American journal of community psychology}, volume = {72}, number = {3-4}, pages = {288-301}, doi = {10.1002/ajcp.12720}, pmid = {37925613}, issn = {1573-2770}, mesh = {Humans ; United States ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Community Participation ; }, abstract = {In this contribution to the 50th Anniversary Special Issue, the authors consider how global climate change and environmental sustainability have been addressed in the American Journal of Community Psychology (AJCP) over the last five decades. As we are increasingly exceeding critical planetary boundaries (global climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation, etc.) with disastrous impacts on human well-being-especially for peoples already marginalized-it is timely to consider the treatment of environmental issues in the history of the AJCP and in community psychology more broadly. This review of relevant articles is clustered into three topics derived from our critical understanding of the articles themselves: (a) public participation and power; (b) community-level responses to environmental change, including its disproportionate impacts on marginalized groups; and (c) frameworks and worldviews that integrate the natural world as necessary context for research and action. The commentary on the featured articles is framed in terms of their key contributions, missed opportunities up to this point, and future directions for the field. While looking back at the past 50 years, the authors also have an eye to the years ahead and what work can be done to mitigate the harms of climate change, adapt to the emerging new environmental reality, and promote just and inclusive sustainabilities worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid37924697, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, M and Zhang, F and Guo, L and Dong, P and Cheng, C and Kumar, P and Johnson, BA and Chan, NW and Shi, J}, title = {Contributions of climate change and human activities to grassland degradation and improvement from 2001 to 2020 in Zhaosu County, China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {119465}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119465}, pmid = {37924697}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Grassland ; Climate Change ; China ; Human Activities ; }, abstract = {Grassland degradation poses a serious threat to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. In this study, we investigated grassland degradation in Zhaosu County, China, between 2001 and 2020, and analyzed the impacts of climate change and human activities using the Miami model. The actual net primary productivity (ANPP) obtained with CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) modeling, showed a decreasing trend, reflecting the significant degradation that the grasslands in Zhaosu County have experienced in the past 20 years. Grassland degradation was found to be highest in 2018, while the degraded area continuously decreased in the last 3 years (2018-2020). Climatic factors for found to be the dominant factor affecting grassland degradation, particularly the decrease in precipitation. On the other hand, human activities were found to be the main factor affecting improvement of grasslands, especially in recent years. This finding profoundly elucidates the underlying causes of grassland degradation and improvement and helps implement ecological conservation and restoration measures. From a practical perspective, the research results provide an important reference for the formulation of policies and management strategies for sustainable land use.}, }
@article {pmid37923929, year = {2023}, author = {Bonomo, S and Marchetti, P and Fasola, S and Vesentini, R and Marcon, A and Ferrante, G and Antonicelli, L and Battaglia, S and Bono, R and Squillacioti, G and Murgia, N and Pirina, P and Villani, S and La Grutta, S and Verlato, G and Viegi, G}, title = {Asthma incidence can be influenced by climate change in Italy: findings from the GEIRD study-a climatological and epidemiological assessment.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {19047}, pmid = {37923929}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Female ; Young Adult ; Humans ; Incidence ; *Climate Change ; *Asthma/epidemiology ; Seasons ; Italy/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {An association between climatic conditions and asthma incidence has been widely assumed. However, it is unclear whether climatic variations have a fingerprint on asthma dynamics over long time intervals. The aim of this study is to detect a possible correlation of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (S-NAO) index and the self-calibrated palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) with asthma incidence over the period from 1957 to 2006 in Italy. To this aim, an analysis of non-stationary and non-linear signals was performed on the time series of the Italian databases on respiratory health (ISAYA and GEIRD) including 36,255 individuals overall, S-NAO, and scPDSI indices to search for characteristic periodicities. The ISAYA (Italian Study on Asthma in Young Adults) and GEIRD (Gene Environment Interactions in Respiratory Diseases) studies collected information on respiratory health in general population samples, born between 1925 and 1989 and aged 20-84 years at the time of the interview, from 13 Italian centres. We found that annual asthma total incidence shared the same periodicity throughout the 1957-2006 time interval. Asthma incidence turned out to be correlated with the dynamics of the scPDSI, modulated by the S-NAO, sharing the same averaged 6 year-periodicity. Since climate patterns appear to influence asthma incidence, future studies aimed at elucidating the complex relationships between climate and asthma incidence are warranted.}, }
@article {pmid37923889, year = {2023}, author = {Akram, H and Li, J and Anser, MK and Irfan, M and Watto, WA}, title = {Assessing the impact of human capital, renewable energy, population growth, economic growth, and climate change policies on achieving the sustainable development goals.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {56}, pages = {119285-119296}, pmid = {37923889}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; *Economic Development ; *Sustainable Development ; Climate Change ; Population Growth ; Carbon Dioxide ; Renewable Energy ; Policy ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {The global emphasis on achieving sustainable development goals necessitates the involvement of researchers and regulators worldwide. In light of this, recent research has examined the effect of human capital, renewable energy, population growth, economic growth, and environmental protection on the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in a developed economy like Pakistan, which is the most important country in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region. This study analyzed secondary data from 1990 to 2019, using the World Development Indicators as the secondary data source. Using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test to investigate stationarity and the autoregressive distributed lag model to evaluate the nexus between variables, the researchers analyzed the relationship between the variables. The findings indicate that all predictors, such as the human capital index (HCI), renewable energy consumption, and renewable energy, exhibit a negative correlation with carbon emissions and a positive correlation with the SDGs. In this study, sustainability and the HCI are positively correlated. Reducing carbon emissions requires competent and dependable employees. As Pakistan transitions to renewable energy and strives for 30% green electricity by 2030, the report highlights the ecological benefits of controlled population growth. According to the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), effective climate policies advance the environmental objectives of a nation. Economic and population growth have a positive correlation with carbon emissions as well. These results facilitate Pakistani policymakers' creation of effective SDG-related initiatives for sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid37923772, year = {2023}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Weissenberger, S and Luetz, JM and Sierra, J and Simon Rampasso, I and Sharifi, A and Anholon, R and Eustachio, JHPP and Kovaleva, M}, title = {Towards a greater engagement of universities in addressing climate change challenges.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {19030}, pmid = {37923772}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Many higher education institutions around the world are engaged in efforts to tackle climate change. This takes place by not only reducing their own carbon footprint but also by educating future leaders and contributing valuable research and expertise to the global effort to combat climate change. However, there is a need for studies that identify the nature of their engagement on the topic, and the extent to which they are contributing towards addressing the many problems associated with climate change. Against this background, this paper describes a study that consisted of a review of the literature and the use of case studies, which outline the importance of university engagement in climate change and describe its main features. The study identified the fact that even though climate change is a matter of great relevance to universities, its coverage in university programmes is not as wide as one could expect. Based on the findings, the paper also lists the challenges associated with the inclusion of climate change in university programmes. Finally, it describes some of the measures which may be deployed in order to maximise the contribution of higher education towards handling the challenges associated with a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid37923761, year = {2023}, author = {Marvin, DC and Sleeter, BM and Cameron, DR and Nelson, E and Plantinga, AJ}, title = {Natural climate solutions provide robust carbon mitigation capacity under future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {19008}, pmid = {37923761}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Natural climate solutions (NCS) are recognized as an important tool for governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove atmospheric carbon dioxide. Using California as a globally relevant reference, we evaluate the magnitude of biological climate mitigation potential from NCS starting in 2020 under four climate change scenarios. By mid-century NCS implementation leads to a large increase in net carbon stored, flipping the state from a net source to a net sink in two scenarios. Forest and conservation land management strategies make up 85% of all NCS emissions reductions by 2050, with agricultural strategies accounting for the remaining 15%. The most severe climate change impacts on ecosystem carbon materialize in the latter half of the century with three scenarios resulting in California ecosystems becoming a net source of carbon emissions under a baseline trajectory. However, NCS provide a strong attenuating effect, reducing land carbon emissions 41-54% by 2100 with total costs of deployment of 752-777 million USD annually through 2050. Rapid implementation of a portfolio of NCS interventions provides long-term investment in protecting ecosystem carbon in the face of climate change driven disturbances. This open-source, spatially-explicit framework can help evaluate risks to NCS carbon storage stability, implementation costs, and overall mitigation potential for NCS at jurisdictional scales.}, }
@article {pmid37921743, year = {2023}, author = {Mehtsun, WT and Hyland, CJ and Offodile, AC}, title = {Adopting a Circular Economy for Surgical Care to Address Supply Chain Shocks and Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA health forum}, volume = {4}, number = {11}, pages = {e233497}, doi = {10.1001/jamahealthforum.2023.3497}, pmid = {37921743}, issn = {2689-0186}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, }
@article {pmid37918567, year = {2023}, author = {Scott, SA and Allen, DD and Haines, ST and Lin, A and Sorensen, TD and Vermeulen, LC}, title = {Guidance for Pharmacy Curricula to Incorporate Health, Wellness, and Health Inequities Stemming From Climate Change: The Report of the 2022-2023 AACP Argus Commission.}, journal = {American journal of pharmaceutical education}, volume = {87}, number = {12}, pages = {100612}, doi = {10.1016/j.ajpe.2023.100612}, pmid = {37918567}, issn = {1553-6467}, mesh = {Humans ; United States ; *Education, Pharmacy ; Climate Change ; Schools, Pharmacy ; *Pharmacy ; Curriculum ; Health Inequities ; }, abstract = {The 2022-2023 American Association of College of Pharmacy Argus Commission was charged to provide guidance to schools, curriculum committees, and faculty on how to incorporate health, wellness, and health inequities stemming from climate change into pharmacy curricula. The Argus Commission does not advocate for major changes in the curriculum or standards but suggests a concerted effort across the Academy to enhance the awareness of graduating students of the potential impact of climate change on health both now and in the future. Various examples, along with recommendations and suggestions, are provided of how the impact of climate change on health is currently being integrated into curricula in member schools, as well as a list of resources faculty can use to enhance their awareness of issues related to climate change and health. The Commission was also charged to provide guidance to the American Association of College of Pharmacy regarding future fundraising and business development opportunities. Recommendations in that regard are also included in this report.}, }
@article {pmid37917256, year = {2023}, author = {Abdi, AH and Mohamed, AA and Sugow, MO}, title = {Exploring the effects of climate change and government stability on internal conflicts: evidence from selected sub-Saharan African countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {56}, pages = {118468-118482}, pmid = {37917256}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Government ; Population Growth ; Africa South of the Sahara ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Economic Development ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been linked to water scarcity, land degradation, and food insecurity, exacerbating existing tensions and creating new conflicts in countries with weak political institutions. Despite the critical need for effective conflict management and climate adaptation measures, prior studies failed to emphasize the role climate change plays in civil clashes in conflict-affected countries. In this research, we undertake a comprehensive investigation of the effects of climate change and government stability on internal conflicts in 14 selected SSA nations between 1996 and 2016. The study embraces contemporary heterogeneous panel techniques to address heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence issues that usually appear in panel data estimates. We employed second-generation unit root tests, such as CADF and CIPS, to determine the order of integration of the variables. In addition, Pedroni and Westerlund cointegration tests confirmed the long-run relationship among the variables. Although temperatures were insignificant, the long-run results of the pooled mean group (PMG) approach suggested that civil conflicts decline when precipitation increases. In addition, the outcomes indicate that environmental degradation and population growth are long-run aggravators of social unrest. The short-run results suggest that rising temperatures exacerbate civil conflicts in the selected SSA countries. However, the study found that government stability lessens internal conflicts in the short run, but not in the long run. The DOLS technique validated the long-run outcomes of the PMG technique. Based on the findings of the study, conflict-prone SSA countries should integrate climate change adaptation and conflict prevention strategies, implement sustainable water resource management practices, and endorse climate-related conflict resolution.}, }
@article {pmid37915176, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, B and Liao, X and Chen, Q and Liu, F and Lei, H}, title = {Climate change and women employment in agriculture in the Sahel region: An empirical insight.}, journal = {African journal of reproductive health}, volume = {27}, number = {10}, pages = {123-132}, doi = {10.29063/ajrh2023/v27i10.11}, pmid = {37915176}, issn = {1118-4841}, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; *Employment ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {In recent times, the Sahel region has been particularly identified as the flash point of climate change crisis in Africa, due to the persistent reliance on both biophysical factors and natural resources, especially agriculture for economic livelihood. Agains t this scenario, this study provides an empirical evidence to establish the nexus between climate change and women employment in agriculture within the Sahel region. The study employed panel data from 1990 to 2020 of 9 countries within the Sahel region. Consequently, a panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) was used to estimate the relationship between the variables of interest. Thus, the results showed that about 60% of women in the Sahel region are actively employed in agriculture. However, change in rainfall pattern has a significant adverse effect on women employment in agriculture. In view of these findings, we conclude that a rise in women's employment in agriculture would be mitigated if adverse effects of changes in rainfall pattern are controlled. Additionally, policymakers should be proactive in policy formulation that increases the region's resilience and adaptation to the future adverse effects of agriculturally induced climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37914761, year = {2023}, author = {Huang, D and An, Q and Huang, S and Tan, G and Quan, H and Chen, Y and Zhou, J and Liao, H}, title = {Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {18801}, pmid = {37914761}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Fritillaria/genetics ; Ecosystem ; China ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Fritillaria species ranked as a well-known traditional medicine in China and has become rare due to excessive harvesting. To find reasonable strategy for conservation and cultivation, identification of new ecological distribution of Fritillaria species together with prediction of those responses to climate change are necessary. In terms of current occurrence records and bioclimatic variables, the suitable habitats for Fritillaria delavayi, Fritillaria taipaiensis, and Fritillaria wabuensis were predicted. In comparison with Maxent and GARP, Biomod2 obtained the best AUC, KAPPA and TSS values of larger than 0.926 and was chosen to construct model. Temperature seasonality was indicated to put the greatest influence on Fritillaria taipaiensis and Fritillaria wabuensis, while isothermality was of most importance for Fritillaria delavayi. The current suitable areas for three Fritillaria species were distributed in south-west China, accounting for approximately 17.72%, 23.06% and 20.60% of China's total area, respectively. During 2021-2100 period, the suitable habitats of F. delavayi and F. wabuensis reached the maximum under SSP585 scenario, while that of F. taipaiensis reached the maximum under SSP126 scenario. The high niche overlap among three Fritillaria species showed correlation with the chemical composition (P ≤ 0.05), while no correlation was observed between niche overlap and DNA barcodes, indicating that spatial distribution had a major influence on chemical composition in the Fritillaria species. Finally, the acquisition of species-specific habitats would contribute to decrease in habitat competition, and future conservation and cultivation of Fritillaria species.}, }
@article {pmid37914577, year = {2023}, author = {Wylie, BJ and Sorensen, C}, title = {Introduction: Climate change and perinatal health: challenges and opportunities.}, journal = {Seminars in perinatology}, volume = {47}, number = {8}, pages = {151846}, doi = {10.1016/j.semperi.2023.151846}, pmid = {37914577}, issn = {1558-075X}, }
@article {pmid37914016, year = {2024}, author = {Gajendiran, K and Kandasamy, S and Narayanan, M}, title = {Influences of wildfire on the forest ecosystem and climate change: A comprehensive study.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {240}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {117537}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117537}, pmid = {37914016}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Ecosystem ; *Wildfires ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Climate Change ; Forests ; *Fires ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Wildfires have complex impacts on forests, including changes in vegetation, threats to biodiversity, and emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, which exacerbate climate change. The influence of wildfires on animal habitats is particularly noteworthy, as they can lead to significant changes in native environments. The extent of these alterations in species and habitats plays a crucial role in shaping forest ecology. Drought, disease, insect infestations, overgrazing, or their combined effects can amplify the negative effects on specific plant genera and entire ecosystems. In addition to the immediate consequences of plant mortality and altered community dynamics, forest fires have far-reaching implications. They often increase flowering and seed production, further influencing ecological communities. However, one concerning trend is the decline in the diversity of forest biological species within fire-affected areas. Beyond their ecological impacts, wildfires emit substantial quantities of greenhouse gases and fine particulates into the atmosphere, triggering profound changes in climate patterns and contributing to global warming. As vegetation burns during these fires, the carbon stored within is released, rendering large forest fires detrimental to biodiversity and the emission of CO2, a significant contributor to global warming. Measuring the global impact of wildfires on ecological communities and greenhouse gas emissions has become increasingly vital. These research endeavors shed light on the intricate relationships and feedback loops linking wildfires, ecosystem inhabitants, and the evolving climate landscape.}, }
@article {pmid37910362, year = {2023}, author = {Andrade, M and Soares, AMVM and Solé, M and Pereira, E and Freitas, R}, title = {Gadolinium accumulation and its biochemical effects in Mytilus galloprovincialis under a scenario of global warming.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {54}, pages = {116120-116133}, pmid = {37910362}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Animals ; Global Warming ; Gadolinium ; *Mytilus/metabolism ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; Oxidative Stress ; Biomarkers/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Electrical and electronic equipment reaching the end of its useful life is currently being disposed of at such an alarmingly high pace that raises environmental concerns. Together with other potentially dangerous compounds, electronic waste contains the rare-earth element gadolinium (Gd), which has already been reported in aquatic systems. Additionally, the vulnerability of aquatic species to this element may also be modified when climate change related factors, like increase in temperature, are taken into consideration. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate the toxicity of Gd under a scenario of increased temperature in Mytilus galloprovincialis mussels. A multi-biomarker approach and Gd bioaccumulation were assessed in mussels exposed for 28 days to 0 and 10 μg/L of Gd at two temperatures (control - 17 °C; increased - 22 °C). Results confirmed that temperature had a strong influence on the bioaccumulation of Gd. Moreover, mussels exposed to Gd alone reduced their metabolism, possibly to prevent further accumulation, and despite catalase and glutathione S-transferases were activated, cellular damage seen as increased lipid peroxidation was not avoided. Under enhanced temperature, cellular damage in Gd-exposed mussels was even greater, as defense mechanisms were not activated, possibly due to heat stress. In fact, with increased temperature alone, organisms experienced a general metabolic depression, particularly evidenced in defense enzymes, similar to the results obtained under Gd-exposure. Overall, this study underlines the importance of conducting environmental risk assessment taking into consideration anticipated climate change scenarios and exposures to emerging contaminants at relevant environmental concentrations.}, }
@article {pmid37909844, year = {2024}, author = {Dupuis, L and Varshney, A and Patel, J and Joshi, S}, title = {Climate crisis and nephrology: a review of climate change's impact on nephrology and how to combat it.}, journal = {Current opinion in nephrology and hypertension}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {110-114}, doi = {10.1097/MNH.0000000000000942}, pmid = {37909844}, issn = {1473-6543}, mesh = {Humans ; *Nephrology ; Renal Dialysis/adverse effects/methods ; Climate Change ; Environment ; *Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/diagnosis/epidemiology/therapy ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change is worsening with tangible effects on our healthcare system. This review aims to examine the repercussions of the climate change on nephrology and explore potential strategies to mitigate its impact. This review examines dialysis's environmental impact, resource recycling methods, and plant-based diets for kidney health. Recent research highlights the advantages of plant-based diets in managing and preventing chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its complications. Integrating these practices can significantly lessen the environmental impact of nephrology.<br><br>PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The aim of this study is to discuss the bidirectional relationship of climate change and kidney disease and the impact of nephrology on climate change and to discuss potential solutions.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Each dialysis session consumes significant amounts of resource; reusing them will aid the environment. Plant-based diets slow renal disease and have a lower carbon footprint, making them ecologically friendly.<br><br>SUMMARY: Climate change is a growing threat to population health and healthcare. Rising temperatures raise the risk of kidney problems. Dialysis treatments also impact the environment through its high resource requirements while generating high volumes of waste and greenhouse gases. Opportunities exist to reduce the environmental impact of dialysis treatments. Plant-based diets serve to benefit both kidney disease and the environment.}, }
@article {pmid37907786, year = {2023}, author = {Ghazi, B and Przybylak, R and Pospieszyńska, A}, title = {Projection of climate change impacts on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Poland.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {18772}, pmid = {37907786}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2020/37/B/ST10/00710//National Science Centre, Poland and Initiative of Excellence at Nicolaus Copernicus University/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is exacerbating the risk of the occurrence of extreme weather. This study has projected the change in mean and extreme climate conditions in Central Poland during near-future (2026-2050), mid-term (2051-2075), and far-future (2076-2100) periods under two climate-change scenarios in six General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results showed that, compared to the historical reference period (1990-2014), Central Poland will experience an increase in temperature and precipitation by the end of the twenty-first century. It is expected that the mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation totals will increase by 1-4.8 °C and 2-7.5%, respectively. Furthermore, it is projected that the average number of hot, very hot days and extremely hot days (Tmax > 25 °C, > 30 °C, and > 35 °C), tropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C), and extremely high daily precipitation (> 10 mm, > 20 mm and > 30 mm) will also increase, while the average number of slight frost days (Tmin < 0 °C), and frost and severe frost days (Tmax < 0 °C, Tmax < - 10 °C) will decline on average by the end of the twenty-first century. Therefore, it is essential for policymakers to take some appropriate measurements and strategies in advance to strengthen resilience to extreme climate events.}, }
@article {pmid37907453, year = {2023}, author = {Guo, WY and Serra-Diaz, JM and Eiserhardt, WL and Maitner, BS and Merow, C and Violle, C and Pound, MJ and Sun, M and Slik, F and Blach-Overgaard, A and Enquist, BJ and Svenning, JC}, title = {Climate change and land use threaten global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {6950}, pmid = {37907453}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Phylogeny ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Biological Evolution ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Across the globe, tree species are under high anthropogenic pressure. Risks of extinction are notably more severe for species with restricted ranges and distinct evolutionary histories. Here, we use a global dataset covering 41,835 species (65.1% of known tree species) to assess the spatial pattern of tree species' phylogenetic endemism, its macroecological drivers, and how future pressures may affect the conservation status of the identified hotspots. We found that low-to-mid latitudes host most endemism hotspots, with current climate being the strongest driver, and climatic stability across thousands to millions of years back in time as a major co-determinant. These hotspots are mostly located outside of protected areas and face relatively high land-use change and future climate change pressure. Our study highlights the risk from climate change for tree diversity and the necessity to strengthen conservation and restoration actions in global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees to avoid major future losses of tree diversity.}, }
@article {pmid37907447, year = {2023}, author = {Rinaldo, A and de Eyto, E and Reed, T and Gjelland, K&#xd8; and McGinnity, P}, title = {Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.15603}, pmid = {37907447}, issn = {1095-8649}, support = {15/IA/3028/SFI_/Science Foundation Ireland/Ireland ; 16/BBSRC/3316/SFI_/Science Foundation Ireland/Ireland ; }, abstract = {Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life-history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in the west of Ireland to model statistical relationships between atmospheric variables, water temperature, and freshwater growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon. We then use this information to project potential changes in juvenile growth and life-history scheduling under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios from 1961 to 2100, based on an ensemble of five climate models. Historical water temperatures were well predicted with a recurrent neural network, using observation-based atmospheric forcing data. Length-at-age was in turn also well predicted by cumulative growing degree days calculated from these water temperatures. Most juveniles in the Burrishoole population migrated to sea as 2-year-old smolts, but our future projections indicate that the system should start producing a greater proportion of 1-year-old smolts, as increasingly more juveniles cross a size-based threshold in their first summer for smoltification the following spring. Those failing to cross the size-based threshold will instead become 2-year-old smolts, but at a larger length relative to 2-year-old smolts observed currently, owing to greater overall freshwater growth opportunity. These changes in age- and size-at-seaward migration could have cascading effects on age- and size-at-maturity and reproductive output. Consequently, the seemingly small changes that our results demonstrate have the potential to cause significant shifts in population dynamics over the full life cycle. This workflow is highly applicable across the range of the Atlantic salmon, as well as to other anadromous species, as it uses openly accessible climate data and a length-at-age model with minimal input requirements, fostering improved general understanding of phenotypic and demographic responses to climate change and management implications.}, }
@article {pmid37907110, year = {2024}, author = {Owusu, SM and Adomako, MO and Qiao, H}, title = {Organic amendment in climate change mitigation: Challenges in an era of micro- and nanoplastics.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {907}, number = {}, pages = {168035}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168035}, pmid = {37907110}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {As a global strategy for mitigating climate change, organic amendments play critical roles in restoring stocks in carbon (C) depleted soils, preserving existing stocks to prevent further soil organic carbon (SOC) loss, and enhancing C sequestration. However, recent emerging evidence of a significant proportion of micro- and nanoplastics (M/NPs) occurrence in most organic substrates (e.g., compost manure, farmyard manure, and sewage sludge) compromises its role in climate change mitigation. Given the predicted surge of soil M/NPs proliferation in the coming years, we argued whether organic amendment remains a reliable climate change mitigation strategy. Toxicity effects of M/NPs influx within the soil matrix disrupt plants and their associated key microbial taxa responsible for crucial biogeochemical processes and restructuring of SOC, leading to increasing emissions of potent greenhouse gases (GHGs, e.g., CO2, CH4, and N2O) that feedback to aggravate the rapidly changing climate. Here, we summarize evidence based on literature that the discovery of M/NPs in organic substrates compromises its role in the climate change mitigation strategy. We briefly discuss the overview of synthetic fertilizers and their impact on SOC and atmospheric emissions. We discuss the role of organic amends in climate change mitigation and the emergence of M/NPs in it. We discuss M/NPs-induced damages to SOC and subsequent emissions of GHGs. We briefly highlight management approaches to clean organic substrates of M/NPs to improve their use in agrosystems and provide recommendations for future research studies. We found that organic amendment plays pivotal role in modulating the biotic and abiotic drivers responsible for climate mitigation. However, M/NPs in organic amendments weaken the regulatory mechanisms of organic amendments in plant-soil systems. We conclude that organic amendments of soils are critical for restoring SOC and mitigating the rapidly changing climate; yet, the discovery of M/NPs in organic substrates put their usage in a dilemma.}, }
@article {pmid37907105, year = {2024}, author = {Nervo, B and Laini, A and Roggero, A and Palestrini, C and Rolando, A}, title = {Spatio-temporal modelling suggests that some dung beetle species (Coleoptera: Geotrupidae) may respond to global warming by boosting dung removal.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {908}, number = {}, pages = {168127}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168127}, pmid = {37907105}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; *Coleoptera ; Global Warming ; Feces ; }, abstract = {In the current framework of changes to the global climate, information on the thermal tolerance of dung beetles is crucial to understand how they might cope with increases in land temperature in terms of survival and ecosystem service provision. In this spatio-temporal modelling study, we investigated the thermal tolerance and effect of temperature changes on dung removal by three dung beetle species (Coleoptera: Geotrupidae) living within the 600-1400 m altitudinal belt in the Italian Alps. We chose large tunneler beetles because of their pivotal role in dung removal and nutrient recycling, important ecosystem services for maintaining the viability and profitability of the Alpine pastoral system. Our study used experimental data on dung removal at different temperatures to predict changes to this ecosystem service in the future considering different climatic scenarios and changes in land use for the specific study area. The results show that the temperature increases incurred between 1981 and 2005 may have boosted rates of spring dung removal across the entire study area (expressed as average dung removal per pair per month), partially compensating for the reduction in grassland extent within pasture-based livestock farming systems. Despite the limitations related to modelling future climate change scenarios and uncertainties deriving from several interacting factors (e.g., the sensitivity of large-bodied species to land-use changes), our results suggest that the predicted increases in temperature over the next 80 years would continue to boost dung removal, revealing a resilience of this service. The increase in dung removal rates, for all three species, is mainly related to the most extreme scenario of carbon emissions and for the months spanning from May to October of the interval 2041-2100. Focusing on large tunnelers and adopting a dynamic approach that considers changes in dung removal over space and time can assist ecosystem service conservation planning.}, }
@article {pmid37906683, year = {2023}, author = {West, TP and Akinsete, AM and Fakile, U and Fashola, TO}, title = {Climate Change and Force Majeure on Childhood Oncology Services in a Low Resource Setting: Experience from a Tertiary Institution in Nigeria.}, journal = {West African journal of medicine}, volume = {40}, number = {10}, pages = {1067-1071}, pmid = {37906683}, issn = {0189-160X}, mesh = {Humans ; Child ; Nigeria ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Health Facilities ; Delivery of Health Care ; }, abstract = {Childhood cancer patients are a vulnerable population who are adversely affected by any disaster that disrupts the healthcare ecosystem. The objective of this study was to describe the impact of flooding on access to care for childhood cancer patients in Bayelsa state, southern Nigeria. We review the effect of the 2022 flooding on childhood cancer care at the paediatric oncology unit of the Niger Delta University Teaching Hospital, southern Nigeria. The devastating floods caused closure of the health facility for four weeks. The challenges faced by the oncology patients included inability to access the facility due to destruction of roads and telecommunication networks, inaccessibility to chemotherapy drugs, postponement of surgeries, parental financial constraints due to income loss occasioned by the flood and worsened by inadequate health insurance. Two children, who were undergoing chemotherapy for rhabdomyosarcoma and retinoblastoma had their care transferred to an unaffected secondary care facility 24km away. Through teamwork and determination, the oncology team was able to overcome various obstacles to provide uninterrupted care for the patients and improve on future patient care during disasters. Care for childhood cancer patients should be prioritized by healthcare facilities especially in predictable flood prone areas like Bayelsa state. Emphasis should be on disaster preparedness training, development of outstations equipped with patient information, chemotherapy drugs and other requirements for continued care to prevent adverse childhood cancer care outcomes. Les patients atteints de cancer pédiatrique constituent une population vulnérable fortement touchée par toute catastrophe perturbant l'écosystème de soins de santé. L'objectif de cette étude était de décrire l'impact des inondations sur l'accès aux soins des patients atteints de cancer pédiatrique dans l'État de Bayelsa, dans le sud du Nigeria. Nous examinons l'effet des inondations de 2022 sur les soins du cancer pédiatrique à l'unité d'oncologie pédiatrique de l'Hôpital universitaire de la Niger Delta, dans le sud du Nigeria. Les inondations dévastatrices ont entraîné la fermeture de l'établissement de santé pendant quatre semaines. Les défis auxquels sont confrontés les patients en oncologie comprennent l'incapacité d'accéder aux installations en raison de la destruction des routes et des réseaux de télécommunication, l'inaccessibilité aux médicaments de chimiothérapie, le report des interventions chirurgicales, des contraintes financières parentales en raison de la perte de revenus causée par les inondations et aggravées par une assurance maladieinsuffisante. par le manque d'assurance maladie. Deux enfants, qui suivaient une chimiothérapie pour un rhabdomyosarcome et un rétinoblastome, ont vu leurssoinstransférésversunétablissementdesoinssecondairesnonaffecté à 24 km de là. Grâce au travail d'équipe et à la détermination, l'équipe d'oncologie a réussi à surmonter les différents obstacles pour assurer des soins ininterrompus aux patients et améliorer les soins futurs aux patients en cas de catastrophes. Les soins aux patients atteints de cancer pédiatrique devraient être une priorité pour les établissements de santé, en particulier dans les zones sujettes aux inondations prévisibles comme l'État de Bayelsa. L'accent devrait être mis sur la formation à la préparation aux catastrophes, le développement de postes extérieurs équipés d'informations sur les patients, de médicaments de chimiothérapie et d'autres éléments nécessaires pour assurer des soins continus, afin de prévenir des résultats défavorables dans les soins del'enfance atteinte de cancer. Mots-clés : Enfance, Cancer, Inondation, Force majeure.}, }
@article {pmid37906373, year = {2023}, author = {Chandra, NA and Sahoo, SN}, title = {Groundwater levels and resiliency mapping under land cover and climate change scenarios: a case study of Chitravathi basin in Southern India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {11}, pages = {1394}, pmid = {37906373}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Groundwater ; India ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Chitravathi basin in India is facing significant challenges as its groundwater resources are facing the impact of land cover and climate change. This study explores the impact of land cover and climate change on groundwater levels and groundwater recharge in the basin using CMIP6 GCMs climate projections data. Taylor Skill Score (TSS) and Rating Metric (RM) were used to rank the GCMs. The top four ranked GCMs, i.e., MPI-ESM1-2-LR, EC-Earth3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and INM-CM5-0 were found to produce the most accurate projections under scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) was used to develop future LULC maps. SWAT model was applied for estimating the future groundwater recharge and was calibrated and validated for discharge data, giving the values of R[2] = 0.84 and 0.82 and NSE = 0.81 and 0.80 during calibration and validation, respectively. A steady-state groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, was employed to estimate future groundwater levels. Based on the projected groundwater recharge and levels, a resiliency map of the basin was developed. The results indicated that by 2060, under SSP2-4.5 scenario, groundwater levels in the basin would decrease by 54 m, while under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the decrease would be 62 m. The groundwater resiliency for both SSPs would be poor in 2060. This research will help design and implement adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of land cover and climate change on Chitravathi basin's groundwater resources. These findings will help to protect and preserve the basin's groundwater supplies.}, }
@article {pmid37906158, year = {2023}, author = {Chiu, L}, title = {Climate change and mental health: Global challenges for psychosocial resilience and recovery.}, journal = {Australasian psychiatry : bulletin of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {795-797}, doi = {10.1177/10398562231211115}, pmid = {37906158}, issn = {1440-1665}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Mental Health ; *Resilience, Psychological ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: As the greatest global challenge of our time, climate change is not only an ecological crisis but also a humanitarian one. Climate action is a defining opportunity to not only collectively mend ecological health and biodiversity but also to advance psychosocial resilience and social cohesion. This essay aims to understand the interconnectedness between climate change and mental health, as well as explore ways in which this can be transformed into a mobilising force.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The ramifications of climate change on mental health are complex, and there continues to be expanding knowledge on this through research undertaken out of heightening urgency. With knowledge of this, global recovery will require meaningful and transformative action that addresses the interconnection between climate change, mental health, and social injustice.}, }
@article {pmid37905459, year = {2023}, author = {Don, A and Seidel, F and Leifeld, J and Kätterer, T and Martin, M and Pellerin, S and Emde, D and Seitz, D and Chenu, C}, title = {Carbon sequestration in soils and climate change mitigation-Definitions and pitfalls.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e16983}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16983}, pmid = {37905459}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {862695//European Union Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme/ ; }, abstract = {The term carbon (C) sequestration has not just become a buzzword but is something of a siren's call to scientific communicators and media outlets. Carbon sequestration is the removal of C from the atmosphere and the storage, for example, in soil. It has the potential to partially compensate for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and is, therefore, an important piece in the global climate change mitigation puzzle. However, the term C sequestration is often used misleadingly and, while likely unintentional, can lead to the perpetuation of biased conclusions and exaggerated expectations about its contribution to climate change mitigation efforts. Soils have considerable potential to take up C but many are also in a state of continuous loss. In such soils, measures to build up soil C may only lead to a reduction in C losses (C loss mitigation) rather than result in real C sequestration and negative emissions. In an examination of 100 recent peer-reviewed papers on topics surrounding soil C, only 4% were found to have used the term C sequestration correctly. Furthermore, 13% of the papers equated C sequestration with C stocks. The review, further, revealed that measures leading to C sequestration will not always result in climate change mitigation when non-CO2 greenhouse gases and leakage are taken into consideration. This paper highlights potential pitfalls when using the term C sequestration incorrectly and calls for accurate usage of this term going forward. Revised and new terms are suggested to distinguish clearly between C sequestration in soils, SOC loss mitigation, negative emissions, climate change mitigation, SOC storage, and SOC accrual to avoid miscommunication among scientists and stakeholder groups in future.}, }
@article {pmid37904727, year = {2023}, author = {Zhu, Y and He, C and Gasparrini, A and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Liu, C and Bachwenkizi, J and Zhou, L and Cheng, Y and Kan, L and Chen, R and Kan, H}, title = {Global warming may significantly increase childhood anemia burden in sub-Saharan Africa.}, journal = {One earth (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {6}, number = {10}, pages = {1388-1399}, pmid = {37904727}, issn = {2590-3322}, support = {MR/V034162/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Childhood anemia constitutes a global public health problem, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, it remains unknown whether global warming has an impact on childhood anemia. Here, we examined the association between annual temperatures and childhood anemia prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa and then projected childhood anemia burden attributable to climate change. Each 1°C increment in annual temperature was associated with increased odds of childhood anemia (odd ratio = 1.138, 95% confidence interval: 1.134-1.142). Compared with the baseline period (1985-2014), the attributable childhood anemia cases would increase by 7,597 per 100,000 person-years under a high-emission scenario in the 2090s, which would be almost 2-fold and over 3-fold more than those projected in moderate- and low-emission scenarios. Our results reveal the vulnerabilities and inequalities of children for the excess burden of anemia due to climate warming and highlight the importance of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies in LMICs.}, }
@article {pmid37900699, year = {2023}, author = {Luederitz, C and Animesh, A and Rohrbacher, K and Li, T and Piper, A and Potvin, C and Etzion, D}, title = {Non-monetary narratives motivate businesses to engage with climate change.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {18}, number = {6}, pages = {2649-2660}, pmid = {37900699}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {The dominant narrative to motivate business actors to take climate actions emphasizes opportunities to increase monetary gains, linking sustainability to the financial goals of these organizations. The prevalence of monetary motivations in sustainability communication among businesses, consultancies, academics and international organizations has made this narrative a truism in the private sector. We conducted an online, real-world, large-n experiment to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of different motivations using narrative communication. We show that non-monetary narratives highlighting prosocial or achievement motivations are 55% more effective in creating responses from businesses than narratives emphasizing monetary gains. These findings are robust across most narrative and audience characteristics, including age and language. Our findings suggest that communication towards business leaders around sustainability can be multi-pronged and should incorporate prosocial and achievement motivations aside from articulating potential financial benefits.}, }
@article {pmid37900033, year = {2023}, author = {Kim, CL and Agampodi, S and Marks, F and Kim, JH and Excler, JL}, title = {Mitigating the effects of climate change on human health with vaccines and vaccinations.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1252910}, pmid = {37900033}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases ; Public Health ; Vaccination ; *Vaccines ; }, abstract = {Climate change represents an unprecedented threat to humanity and will be the ultimate challenge of the 21st century. As a public health consequence, the World Health Organization estimates an additional 250,000 deaths annually by 2030, with resource-poor countries being predominantly affected. Although climate change's direct and indirect consequences on human health are manifold and far from fully explored, a growing body of evidence demonstrates its potential to exacerbate the frequency and spread of transmissible infectious diseases. Effective, high-impact mitigation measures are critical in combating this global crisis. While vaccines and vaccination are among the most cost-effective public health interventions, they have yet to be established as a major strategy in climate change-related health effect mitigation. In this narrative review, we synthesize the available evidence on the effect of climate change on vaccine-preventable diseases. This review examines the direct effect of climate change on water-related diseases such as cholera and other enteropathogens, helminthic infections and leptospirosis. It also explores the effects of rising temperatures on vector-borne diseases like dengue, chikungunya, and malaria, as well as the impact of temperature and humidity on airborne diseases like influenza and respiratory syncytial virus infection. Recent advances in global vaccine development facilitate the use of vaccines and vaccination as a mitigation strategy in the agenda against climate change consequences. A focused evaluation of vaccine research and development, funding, and distribution related to climate change is required.}, }
@article {pmid37899109, year = {2023}, author = {Yang, ZK and Yang, WR and Liu, ZJ and Gao, WD and Ren, TS and Shen, YJ and Yang, XG}, title = {Effects of climate change on wind erosion in the three provinces of Northeast China.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {34}, number = {9}, pages = {2429-2435}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202309.011}, pmid = {37899109}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Wind ; Soil ; China ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The three provinces of Northeast China are crucial to national commodity grain production. Soils in those areas have begun to severely degrade after long-term high-intensity use, with wind erosion as one of the main reasons. Based on meteorological and soil data from 1981 to 2019, we evaluated the spatial-temporal characteristics of wind erosion on bare land in the three provinces of Northeast China by using the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ), and analyzed the contributions of meteorological factors to wind erosion on bare land. The results showed that, the meteorological factors of wind erosion were overall high in southwestern part and low in northeastern part of the region. In general, wind erosion in the region was substantial, especially in Liaoning. During the 39 years, wind erosion significantly increased throughout the whole year and during the growing season, at a rate of 129 and 105 t·km[-2] per decade, respectively. The obvious increase in wind erosion was observed in the northwest Liaoning, Liaohe Plain, and Changbai Mountain area. Wind speed and air temperature were the main factors affecting wind erosion during the year and non-growing season, which contributed less during the growing season when precipitation contributed the most. We concluded that climate change has aggravated soil wind erosion in the three provinces of Northeast China.}, }
@article {pmid37899097, year = {2023}, author = {Dong, YB and Xie, PP and Liu, Y and Sun, BZ and Zhang, XL}, title = {Response of resin canal area of Pinus tabuliformis with different ages to climate change in Taiyue Mountains, China.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {34}, number = {9}, pages = {2330-2336}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202309.008}, pmid = {37899097}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Pinus ; Global Warming ; China ; Droughts ; Trees ; }, abstract = {To investigate the responses of resin canal area of Pinus tabuliformis with different ages to climate change, we analyzed the relationship between the resin canal area and climate factors from 1972 to 2017 in P. tabuliformis plantation at young age, middle age, near-mature, mature, and over-mature periods in Taiyue Mountains, Shanxi Province. The results showed that 55.7% to 75.2% of resin canal occurred in earlywood. The mature and over-mature periods had the largest resin channel area, sequentially followed by near mature, middle age, and young age periods. Annual mean latewood resin canal area increased significantly in near-mature period and mature period, but not in other periods. There was a significant negative correlation between earlywood resin canal area and minimum temperature during the growing season (May to July) for trees at middle age period. Earlywood resin canal area of mature trees showed significant negative correlation with minimum temperature during the growing season, but significant positive correlation with drought (PDSI) in the non-growing season (previous September to current April). The total area of earlywood resin canal at the young, near-mature, and mature periods was less influenced by climate than other periods. The minimum growing season temperature was a limiting factor to earlywood resin canal growth, while the non-growing season drought gradually became a limiting factor for earlywood resin canal with increasing tree age. The total area of earlywood resin canal decreased with increasing non-growing season drought and increasing growing season minimum temperature. In the context of global warming, the earlywood resin canal area may gradually decrease at all five periods, and the most reduction in the over-mature stage.}, }
@article {pmid37898926, year = {2023}, author = {Vadzyuk, SN and Huk, VO and Dzhyvak, TV and Sverstiuk, AS and Dzhyvak, VH and Bondarchuk, VI and Hevko, UP and Nikitina, IM and Herevych, NV}, title = {MULTIFACTORIAL REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE LEVEL OF HEAT SENSITIVITY IN HEALTHY YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL WARMING.}, journal = {Wiadomosci lekarskie (Warsaw, Poland : 1960)}, volume = {76}, number = {9}, pages = {1922-1929}, doi = {10.36740/WLek202309104}, pmid = {37898926}, issn = {0043-5147}, mesh = {Humans ; Adolescent ; *Global Warming ; *Hot Temperature ; Models, Theoretical ; Forecasting ; Prognosis ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The aim: To create a mathematical model for predicting the level of heat sensitivity in healthy young people based on multivariate regression analysis.<br><br>PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and methods: 150 healthy young people aged 17-20 years answered the questionnaire "Levels of heat sensitivity", underwent a heat test and mathematical analysis of the heart rate, after which the results were used to build a regression model of heat sensitivity.<br><br>RESULTS: Results: The model of mathematical prediction of heat sensitivity (CHSL1/CHSL2), which we proposed for the first time, takes into account the most significant factors that influence the determination of higher and lower sensitivity to heat (Q1-Q6, %LF2, %HF1, %HF2, HR1, HR2), so its use will allow timely identi&#xac;fication of individuals who are particularly susceptible to the effects of elevated ambient temperature and prevent the development of potential negative consequences of this exposure.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Conclusions: Based on the results obtained, it is possible to use this prognostic model in the future to develop a diagnostic system for determining the level of heat sensitivity.}, }
@article {pmid37898215, year = {2024}, author = {Shah, WUH and Lu, Y and Liu, J and Rehman, A and Yasmeen, R}, title = {The impact of climate change and production technology heterogeneity on China's agricultural total factor productivity and production efficiency.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {907}, number = {}, pages = {168027}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168027}, pmid = {37898215}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Sustainable agricultural production efficiency is important for global food security, environmental conservation, economic development, human Health, and social equity. However, Climate change has had a significant impact on global agricultural productivity. To this end, investigating climate change's effect on agricultural production efficiency is critical for the food security of any particular country or region, and China is not distinct. Further, the influencing factor of agricultural total factor productivity (technology or technical efficiency) and regional heterogeneity in agricultural production technologies of China are worth exploring for sustainable agricultural growth. To this end, this study employed the DEA-Malmquist Productivity Index to gauge the total factor productivity change (TFPC) in 31 provinces and administrative units of China from 2000 to 2021. Additional inputs of climate factors were added to the estimation process to explore the impact of climate change on TFPC for different periods and regions. The meta-frontier analysis estimates the agriculture production technology gap among nine regions of China. Results revealed that climate factors could overestimate China's average total factor agricultural productivity over the study period. Among 8 out of 9 regions in China witnessed the diverse effects of climate factors; however, it positively impacted agricultural TFPC in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau. Sichuan Basin and surrounding regions performed best, ranked top in China with an average growth rate of 22.3 % in TFPC. Decomposing the TFPC into efficiency and technological change, the study found that the influence of climate on technological change is greater than compared to efficiency change. Northeast China Plain and Sichuan Basin and surrounding regions have superior agriculture production technology with a TGR score 1. Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis test proved the statistically significant difference among agricultural productivity scores estimated with and without climate factors and production technology gaps among nine regions of China.}, }
@article {pmid37898212, year = {2024}, author = {Ming, Y and Ningxi, G and Jiatong, Z and Zhanhan, H and Zixuan, C and Di, S and Hongtao, Z}, title = {Enhanced-efficiency nitrogen fertilizer provides a reliable option for mitigating global warming potential in agroecosystems worldwide.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {907}, number = {}, pages = {168080}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168080}, pmid = {37898212}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Enhanced-efficiency nitrogen fertilizer (EENF), developed to improve synchronization between crop nitrogen demand and nitrogen supply, can guarantee global food security and mitigate nitrogen fertilizer-induced environmental consequences. However, comprehensive assessments of how EENF affects CH4 and CO2 emissions from paddies and drylands and the associated benefits are lacking. Here, we present the results of a global meta-analysis conducted to assess the above issues. Our results showed that, on average, applying nitrification inhibitors and coated controlled-release urea to paddy fields significantly decreased CH4 emissions by 24.0 % and 25.3 %, respectively, likely due to the weakened inhibition of NH4[+] on CH4 oxidation. A similar effect on CO2 emission was observed when farmers used nitrification inhibitors and coated controlled-release urea in the drylands. The meta-analysis results revealed that all EENF products could help mitigate the global warming potential of paddies and drylands. After incorporating the benefit of global warming potential mitigation into the cost-benefit analysis, coated controlled-release urea application in paddies and drylands produced the largest environmental gains of $ 76.34 ha[-1] and $ 79.35 ha[-1], respectively. However, the relatively lower purchasing cost and larger yield increase of urease inhibitors resulted in the largest net profits for farmers. Moreover, a greater economic return was generally achieved by applying EENF to paddy fields than by applying EENF to drylands. These findings highlight the role of EENF in mitigating the global warming potential of global paddy and dryland fields, which has facilitated the comprehensive recognition of EENF-induced impacts.}, }
@article {pmid37898210, year = {2024}, author = {do Nascimento, TVM and de Oliveira, RP and Condesso de Melo, MT}, title = {Impacts of large-scale irrigation and climate change on groundwater quality and the hydrological cycle: A case study of the Alqueva irrigation scheme and the Gabros de Beja aquifer system.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {907}, number = {}, pages = {168151}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168151}, pmid = {37898210}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This research aims to analyze the impacts of the large-scale Alqueva Irrigation System (AIS) on the water cycle in selected sub-basins and the underlying Gabros de Beja aquifer system (GBAS) in Southern Portugal. The Alqueva reservoir and irrigation project is one of the largest strategic water reservoirs in Western Europe and the AIS's primary source. The closure of the dam in 2002 resulted in significant changes to the region's land use and agricultural practices, shifting from predominantly rainfed dry cereals to intensively irrigated olive and almond orchards. Therefore, this study used SWAT+ to simulate water flows from 1934 to 2021 and examined the evolution of groundwater quality and its correlation with irrigation, using data from about 50 wells from 2002 to 2021. Kriging spatial interpolation, Mann-Kendal and Sen's trend tests and the correlation technique were used. The findings revealed several noteworthy trends. First, there was a significant historical decrease in precipitation, which can be attributed to climate change. The simulation indicated a decrease in runoff and recharge, along with an increase in actual evapotranspiration due to irrigation. Furthermore, the hydrogeostatiscal analysis showed that the aquifer experienced significant salinization after the AIS implementation. In contrast, a preponderant decreasing trend in nitrate concentration was observed, which may be attributed to (a) a decrease in fertilizer use, (b) dilution effects and (c) alteration in nitrates pathways due to changes in crop types. Finally, the correlation analysis suggested that nitrates and chlorides were highly correlated to actual evapotranspiration and precipitation evolution, which may be associated to irrigation. In conclusion, the large-scale irrigation implementation and climate change significantly altered the water cycle of the study region. Overall, these findings addressed existing knowledge gaps and provided valuable insights that can be extrapolated to draw conclusions and generalize climate change and irrigation's effects on fluvial ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid37897046, year = {2023}, author = {Males, J and Baksh-Comeau, Y and Jaggernauth, D and Ballah, S and Paltoo, S and Griffiths, H}, title = {Epiphytic CAM Bromeliads indicate vulnerability of tropical forest communities to climate change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcad152}, pmid = {37897046}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND SCOPE: Vascular epiphytes have a variety of mechanisms to trap and retain water, including Crassulacean Acid Metabolism (CAM). Niche segregation was investigated for epiphytic bromeliads on the tropical caribbean island of Trinidad, where habitats range from lowland deciduous forests to high rainfall montane tropical forests, around 1000m in altitude.<br><br>METHODS: Four tank-impounding bromeliad epiphytes in the genus Aechmea (Ae. aquilega, Ae. fendleri, Ae. nudicaulis, Ae. dichlamydea) with CAM were mapped across their distinct geographical and altitudinal zonations in northern Trinidad and Tobago. Species distribution modelling was used to determine environmental limitations for each species. Anatomical and physiological measurements included leaf succulence traits, gas exchange and CAM activity; hydraulic conductance and vulnerability; stomatal sensitivity and quantum yield responses to nocturnal temperature and long-term water deficits.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: A total of 2876 field observations identified the transitions between the lowland Ae. aquilega and montane Ae. fendleri, occurring above 500 m at the drier western end of the Northern Mountain Range, and at progressively lower elevations towards the wetter, eastern region. Anatomical and physiological sensitivities of gas exchange, CAM activity and water use, and responses to elevated nocturnal temperatures and drought, were markedly different for Ae. fendleri, as compared or Ae. aquilega or the ubiquitous Ae. nudicaulis.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The species distribution model highlighted the susceptibility of Aechmea fendleri to a changing climate. For each species, physiological and anatomical traits were tailored to environmental tolerances, consistent with specialist or generalist niche preferences. Using IPCC scenarios, we predict that rapid rainfall and temperature changes will lead to the loss of Ae. fendleri and associated lower (and upper) montane forest communities from Trinidad, seriously impacting both biodiversity and critical ecosystem functions here, and in other tropical island habitats. Epiphytic bromeliads act as markers for threatened communities, and their physiological tolerances represent key indicators of climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid37896012, year = {2023}, author = {Kim, KH and Lee, BM}, title = {Effects of Climate Change and Drought Tolerance on Maize Growth.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {37896012}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {RDA PJ016265022023//Rural Development Administration/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting all regions of the world with different climates, and the scale of damage is increasing due to the occurrence of various natural disasters. In particular, maize production is highly affected by abnormal climate events such as heat waves and droughts. Increasing temperatures can accelerate growth and shorten the growing season, potentially reducing productivity. Additionally, enhanced temperatures during the ripening period can accelerate the process, reducing crop yields. In addition, drought stress due to water deficit can greatly affect seedling formation, early plant growth, photosynthesis, reproductive growth, and yield, so proper water management is critical to maize growth. Maize, in particular, is tall and broad-leaved, so extreme drought stress at planting can cause leaves to curl and stunt growth. It is important to understand that severe drought can have a detrimental effect on the growth and reproduction of maize. In addition, high temperatures caused by drought stress can inhibit the induction of flowering in male flowers and cause factors that interfere with pollen development. It is therefore important to increase the productivity of all food crops, including maize, while maintaining them in the face of persistent drought caused by climate change. This requires a strategy to develop genetically modified crops and drought-tolerant maize that can effectively respond to climate change. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of climate change and drought tolerance on maize growth. We also reviewed molecular breeding techniques to develop drought-tolerant maize varieties in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37895993, year = {2023}, author = {de Oliveira, KKP and de Oliveira, RR and Chalfun-Junior, A}, title = {Small RNAs: Promising Molecules to Tackle Climate Change Impacts in Coffee Production.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {37895993}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {x//Institutos Nacionais de Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; CAP APQ 03605/17//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais/ ; 5316/15//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais/ ; x//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; 309005/2022-1//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; #21/06968-3//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Over the centuries, human society has evolved based on the ability to select and use more adapted species for food supply, which means making plant species tastier and more productive in particular environmental conditions. However, nowadays, this scenario is highly threatened by climate change, especially by the changes in temperature and greenhouse gasses that directly affect photosynthesis, which highlights the need for strategic studies aiming at crop breeding and guaranteeing food security. This is especially worrying for crops with complex phenology, genomes with low variability, and the ones that support a large production chain, such as Coffea sp. L. In this context, recent advances shed some light on the genome function and transcriptional control, revealing small RNAs (sRNAs) that are responsible for environmental cues and could provide variability through gene expression regulation. Basically, sRNAs are responsive to environmental changes and act on the transcriptional and post-transcriptional gene silencing pathways that regulate gene expression and, consequently, biological processes. Here, we first discuss the predicted impact of climate changes on coffee plants and coffee chain production and then the role of sRNAs in response to environmental changes, especially temperature, in different species, together with their potential as tools for genetic improvement. Very few studies in coffee explored the relationship between sRNAs and environmental cues; thus, this review contributes to understanding coffee development in the face of climate change and towards new strategies of crop breeding.}, }
@article {pmid37894217, year = {2023}, author = {Barbosa, AB and Mosley, BA and Galvão, HM and Domingues, RB}, title = {Short-Term Effects of Climate Change on Planktonic Heterotrophic Prokaryotes in a Temperate Coastal Lagoon: Temperature Is Good, Ultraviolet Radiation Is Bad, and CO2 Is Neutral.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {37894217}, issn = {2076-2607}, support = {UID/00350/2020 CIMA//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; LA/P/0069/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; SFRH/BPD/68688/2010//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; DL57/2016/CP1361/CT0017//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; 2022.13126.BD//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; }, abstract = {Planktonic heterotrophic prokaryotes (HProks) are a pivotal functional group in marine ecosystems and are highly sensitive to environmental variability and climate change. This study aimed to investigate the short-term effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2), ultraviolet radiation (UVR), and temperature on natural assemblages of HProks in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon during winter. Two multi-stressor microcosm experiments were used to evaluate the isolated and combined effects of these environmental changes on HProk abundance, production, growth, and mortality rates. The isolated and combined effects of increased CO2 on HProks were not significant. However, HProk production, cellular activity, instantaneous growth rate, and mortality rate were negatively influenced by elevated UVR and positively influenced by warming. Stronger effects were detected on HProk mortality in relation to specific growth rate, leading to higher HProk net growth rates and abundance under elevated UVR and lower values under warming conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37893968, year = {2023}, author = {Beltrán, JF and Rodríguez-Rodríguez, EJ}, title = {Relying on Incomplete Information Can Lead to the Wrong Conclusions. Comment on van Hassel, F.; Bovenkerk, B. How Should We Help Wild Animals Cope with Climate Change? The Case of the Iberian Lynx. Animals 2023, 13, 453.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {37893968}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {In their recent paper, Van Hassel and Bovenkerk [...].}, }
@article {pmid37891025, year = {2023}, author = {Segaran, TC and Azra, MN and Handayani, KS and Lananan, F and Xu, J}, title = {Seaweed and climate change: A mapping review.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {192}, number = {}, pages = {106216}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106216}, pmid = {37891025}, issn = {1879-0291}, abstract = {Seaweed has garnered increasing interest due to its capacity to mitigate climate change by curbing carbon emissions from agriculture, as well as its potential to serve as a supplement or alternative for dietary, livestock feed, or fuel source production. Moreover, seaweed is regarded as one of the earliest plant forms to have evolved on Earth. Owing to the extensive body of literature available and the uncertainty surrounding the future trajectory of seaweed research under evolving climate conditions, this review scrutinizes the structure, dynamics, and progression of the literature pertaining to seaweed and climate change. This analysis is grounded in the Web of Science Core Collection database, augmented by CiteSpace software. Furthermore, we discuss the productivity and influence of individual researchers, research organizations, countries, and scientific journals. To date, there have been 8047 articles published globally (after a series of filters and exclusions), with a notable upswing in publication frequency since 2018. The USA, China, and Australia are among the leading countries contributing to this research area. Our findings reveal that current research on seaweed and climate change encompasses 13 distinct research clusters, including "marine heatwave", "temperate estuary", "ocean acidification", and "macroalgal bloom". The most frequently cited keywords are "climate change", "biomass", "community", and "photosynthesis". The seaweed species most commonly referenced in relation to climate change include Gracilaria sp., Sargassum sp., Ecklonia maxima, and Macrocystis pyrifera. These results provide valuable guidance for shaping the direction of specialized topics concerning marine biodiversity under shifting climate conditions. We propose that seaweed production may be compromised during prolonged episodes of reduced water availability, emphasizing the need to formulate strategies to guarantee its continued viability. This article offers fresh perspectives on the analysis of seaweed research in the context of impending climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37890629, year = {2024}, author = {Yanes, JL and Moral, F}, title = {Spatial variability of hydrochemistry and environmental controls in karst aquifers of the southern Iberian Peninsula: Implications for climate change impact assessment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {907}, number = {}, pages = {168141}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168141}, pmid = {37890629}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Carbonate aquifers are crucial water and carbon reservoirs globally, particularly in semi-arid climates. However, these systems are susceptible to the impacts of climate change, given their sensitivity to specific environmental factors. This study presents the hydrochemical (water temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, and major ions) and isotopic (δ[13]C) composition of 39 karst springs in the southern Iberian Peninsula, along with the parameterization of environmental factors (temperature, precipitation, recharge altitude, and vegetation cover quantified by the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index, NDVI) in their recharge areas. The spatial analysis revealed that the climatic and environmental factors follow a longitudinal pattern producing a notable west-east environmental gradient in the study area. Through a statistical analysis based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA), it was found that environmental factors control the spatial variability of groundwater hydrochemistry in these karstic aquifers. The δ[13]CDIC values in groundwater, ranging from -1.84 to -12.46 ‰, show a prevalence of C4 plants mainly in the more arid study sectors and indicate an origin of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) mainly in biological processes in the recharge area. In addition, a relationship between NDVI values, equilibrium partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), and groundwater bicarbonate content was observed. Springs further west of the study area exhibited higher bicarbonate content (about 400 ppm), which was associated with higher pCO2 levels (about 10,000 and 15,000 ppm) and higher NDVI values (between 0.5 and 0.7). In contrast, aquifers located further to the east had lower bicarbonate levels (<200 ppm), with an average pCO2 of about 2000 ppm and the lowest NDVI values (<0.3). Furthermore, the spatial variability and the relationship between environmental factors and groundwater hydrochemistry allow for the assessment of potential climate change impacts in carbonate systems with a comparison between aquifers in wetter regions and those in semi-arid conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37890338, year = {2023}, author = {Lee, G and Hendriks, J}, title = {The not so hidden effects of climate change related heatwaves on the cardiovascular system.}, journal = {International emergency nursing}, volume = {71}, number = {}, pages = {101374}, doi = {10.1016/j.ienj.2023.101374}, pmid = {37890338}, issn = {1878-013X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Cardiovascular System ; Hospitalization ; }, }
@article {pmid37889742, year = {2023}, author = {Guo, W and Li, Z and Liu, T and Feng, J}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Threatened Fishing Bat Myotis pilosus in China.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {37889742}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {20230101268JC//Jilin Provincial Natural Science Foundation/ ; 32201262//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2021FY100301//the Special Foundation for National Science and Technology Basic research program of China/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change and biodiversity loss are two severe challenges that the world is facing. Studying the distribution shifts of species in response to climate change could provide insights into long-term conservation and biodiversity maintenance. Myotis pilosus is the only known fishing bat in East Asia, whereas its population has been decreasing in recent years and it is listed as a "Vulnerable" species. To assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of M. pilosus, we obtained 33 M. pilosus occurrence records within China where they are mainly distributed, and extracted 30 environmental variables. MaxEnt was applied to assess the habitat suitability, recognize the important environmental variables, predict future distribution changes, and identify the potential future climate refugia. The prediction result based on eleven dominant environmental variables was excellent. The Jackknife test showed that the "minimum temperature of coldest month", "precipitation of wettest quarter", "percent tree cover", and "precipitation of driest month" were the main factors affecting the distribution of M. pilosus. The current suitable areas were predicted to be mainly located in southwest and southeast China with a total area of about 160.54 × 10[4] km[2], accounting for 16.72% of China's land area. Based on the CCSM4, it was predicted that the future (2050 and 2070) suitable areas of M. pilosus will expand and shift to high latitudes and altitudes with global warming, but the area of moderately and highly suitable habitats will be small. Considering the dispersal capacity of M. pilosus, the area of colonized suitable habitats in 2050 and 2070 was predicted to be only ca. 94 × 10[4] km[2] and 155 × 10[4] km[2], respectively. The central and southern parts of Hainan, southern Guangdong, central Guizhou, and southern Beijing were identified as potential climate refugia and could be considered as priority conservation areas for M. pilosus. Thus, we suggest long-term monitoring of the priority conservation areas, especially the areas at high latitudes and altitudes. These results contribute to our knowledge of the possible spatial distribution pattern of M. pilosus under current and future climate scenarios, which is important for the population protection and habitat management of this special piscivorous bat species.}, }
@article {pmid37889659, year = {2023}, author = {Pérez-Consuegra, SG and Sánchez-Tovar, L and Rodríguez-Tapia, G and Castañeda-Rico, S and Vázquez-Domínguez, E}, title = {Late Pleistocene Altitudinal Segregation and Demography Define Future Climate Change Distribution of the Peromyscus mexicanus Species Group: Conservation Implications.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {37889659}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {CONACyT Grant 101861//Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog&#xed;a/ ; Grant DEB1026396//National Science Foundation/ ; DIGI-USAC, 2011-2-22//Direcci&#xf3;n General de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; }, abstract = {Mountains harbor a significant number of the World's biodiversity, both on tropical and temperate regions. Notably, one crucial gap in conservation is the consideration of historical and contemporary patterns influencing differential distribution in small mammal mountain species and how climate change will affect their distribution and survival. The mice Peromyscus mexicanus species group is distributed across mountains in Guatemala-Chiapas and Central America, which experienced significant effects of glacial and interglacial cycles. We determined phylogeographic and demographic patterns of lowlands and highlands mountain lineages, revealing that the radiation of modern P. mexicanus lineages occurred during the Pleistocene (ca. 2.6 mya) along Nuclear Central America. In concert with climatic cycles and the distribution of habitats, lowland and highland lineages showed recent population size increase and decrease, respectively. We also estimated the current and future distribution ranges for six lineages, finding marked area size increase for two lineages for which vegetation type and distribution would facilitate migrating towards higher elevations. Contrastingly, three lineages showed range size decrease; their ecological requirements make them highly susceptible to future habitat loss. Our findings are clear evidence of the negative impacts of future climate change, while our ability to manage and conserve these vulnerable ecosystems and mountain species is contingent on our understanding of the implications of climate change on the distribution, ecology, and genetics of wildlife populations.}, }
@article {pmid37888630, year = {2023}, author = {Focker, M and van Eupen, M and Verweij, P and Liu, C and van Haren, C and van der Fels-Klerx, HJ}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Areas Suitable for Maize Cultivation and Aflatoxin Contamination in Europe.}, journal = {Toxins}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {37888630}, issn = {2072-6651}, mesh = {Humans ; *Aflatoxins/analysis ; Zea mays ; Climate Change ; Food Contamination/analysis ; Europe ; *Mycotoxins/analysis ; }, abstract = {The climate is changing in Europe: average temperatures are increasing, and so is the frequency of extreme weather events. Climate change has a severe impact on areas suitable for growing certain crops and on food safety, for example, affecting the occurrence of the aflatoxin contamination of maize. The aim of this study was to obtain insights into the impact of climate change on possible changes in land use in Europe, particularly in areas suitable for maize cultivation, and on the probability of the mycotoxin contamination of maize in order to give directions for long-term adaptation to climate change. By combining a land use model and a mycotoxin prediction model, the suitability of land for maize cultivation and the probability of aflatoxin contamination were estimated for suitable areas in Europe, comparing the current climate with the 2050 scenario. In 2050, the occurrence of aflatoxin contamination in Europe is predicted to severely increase, especially in Central and Southern Europe. More northern regions, presently unsuitable for maize cultivation, will become suitable for maize cultivation in 2050. In the baseline scenario, most regions suitable for maize cultivation have a low probability of aflatoxin contamination, whereas in 2050, about half of the regions suitable for maize cultivation have a medium to high probability of aflatoxin contamination. Regions for safely growing maize for human consumption will shift from the southern to the northern half of Europe.}, }
@article {pmid37887701, year = {2023}, author = {Portela Dos Santos, O and Melly, P and Joost, S and Verloo, H}, title = {Measuring Nurses' Knowledge and Awareness of Climate Change and Climate-Associated Diseases: Protocol for a Systematic Review of Existing Instruments.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {37887701}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Clinical Competence ; *Climate Change ; Reproducibility of Results ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; Motivation ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a health emergency. Each year, it is estimated to cost more than 230 million years of life expectancy, with 4-9 million premature deaths associated with air pollution, and 9 million excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, representing 7% more temperature-related deaths since 2015 and 66% more since 2000.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: Identify and evaluate the reliability, fidelity, and validity of instruments measuring nurses' knowledge and awareness of climate change and climate-associated diseases.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic literature review will retrieve and assess studies examining instruments measuring nurses' knowledge and awareness of climate change and climate-associated diseases. Using predefined search terms for nurses, climate change, literacy and scales or tools, we will search for published articles recorded in the following electronic databases, with no language or date restrictions, from their inception until 31 October 2023: Medline Ovid SP (from 1946), PubMed (NOT Medline[sb], from 1996), Embase.com (from 1947), CINAHL Ebesco (from 1937), the Cochrane Library Wiley (from 1992), Web of Science Core Collection (from 1900), the Trip Database (from 1997), JBI OVID SP (from 1998), and the GreenFILE EBSCO. We will also hand-search relevant articles' bibliographies and search for unpublished studies using Google Scholar, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global, and DART-EUrope.eu. This will be completed by exploring the gray literature in OpenGrey and the Grey Literature Report, from inception until 31 October 2023, in collaboration with a librarian. Twelve bibliographic databases will be searched for publications up to 31 October 2023. The papers selected will be assessed for their quality.<br><br>RESULTS: The electronic database searches were completed in May 2023. Retrieved articles are being screened, and the study will be completed by October 2023. After removing duplicates, our search strategy has retrieved 3449 references.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review will provide specific knowledge about instruments to measure nurses' knowledge, awareness, motivation, attitudes, behaviors, beliefs, skills, and competencies regarding climate change and climate-associated diseases.}, }
@article {pmid37887037, year = {2023}, author = {Bariotakis, M and Georgescu, L and Laina, D and Koufaki, M and Souma, M and Douklias, S and Giannakakis, KA and Chouli, KN and Paoli, L and Loppi, S and Karousou, R and Smykal, P and Castanas, E and Pirintsos, SA}, title = {Climate Change Dependence in Ex Situ Conservation of Wild Medicinal Plants in Crete, Greece.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {37887037}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Over 80% of the global population addresses their primary healthcare needs using traditional medicine based on medicinal plants. Consequently, there's a rising demand for these plants for both household and industrial use at local, regional, national, and international levels. However, wild harvesting has negatively impacted natural ecosystems. Cultivating medicinal species has been proposed as a conservation strategy to alleviate this pressure. Yet, in this age of global climate change concerns, smallholder farmers' views on the benefits of such cultivation clash with the uncertainties of climate change impacts, amplifying their anxieties. In this context, the climate change dependence of ex situ cultivation of ten wild medicinal taxa with significant ethnopharmacological interest in Crete, Greece, were studied, projecting their potential habitat suitability under various future climate scenarios. The results demonstrated species-specific effects. Based on the potential cultivation area gains and losses, these effects can be categorized into three groups. We also outlined the spatial patterns of these gains and losses, offering valuable insights for regional management strategies benefiting individual practitioners.}, }
@article {pmid37886283, year = {2023}, author = {Park, GL and Sander, WE and Martenies, SE and Rosencranz, H and Rice, LA and Jayasingh-Ramkumar, J and Michaels, S and Aldridge, B}, title = {Beyond the Imodium, a One Health Discussion on Diarrhea and the Impact of Climate Change.}, journal = {Medical science educator}, volume = {33}, number = {5}, pages = {1049-1053}, pmid = {37886283}, issn = {2156-8650}, abstract = {Our ability to tackle the looming human, animal, and global ecosystem health threats arising from the issues of climate change and extreme weather events will require effective and creative cross-disciplinary collaboration. There is a growing national and international interest in equipping the next generation of clinicians and health scientists for success in facing these important challenges by providing interprofessional training opportunities. This paper describes how we assembled an interdisciplinary team of experts to design and deliver a case-based discussion on a cross-species illness outbreak in animals and humans using a One Health framework. The small group, case-based approach highlighted the impact of climate change-driven extreme weather events on human and animal health using a diarrhea outbreak associated with a contaminated community water supply precipitated by extreme flooding. Post-activity survey data indicated that this team-taught learning activity successfully engaged a cross-disciplinary cohort of medical, veterinary, and public health students in the issues of environmental public health threats and helped them understand the importance of an integrative, cross-functional, team-based approach for solving complex problems. The data from this study is being used to plan similar interprofessional, One Health learning activities across the health sciences curriculum in our institution.}, }
@article {pmid37884720, year = {2023}, author = {Sobanaa, M and Prathiviraj, R and Selvin, J and Prathaban, M}, title = {A comprehensive review on methane's dual role: effects in climate change and potential as a carbon-neutral energy source.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37884720}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {The unprecedented population and anthropogenic activity rise have challenged the future look up for shifts in global temperature and climate patterns. Anthropogenic activities such as land fillings, building dams, wetlands converting to lands, combustion of biomass, deforestation, mining, and the gas and coal industries have directly or indirectly increased catastrophic methane (CH4) emissions at an alarming rate. Methane is 25 times more potent trapping heat when compared to carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. A rise in atmospheric methane, on a 20-year time scale, has an impact of 80 times greater than that of CO2. With increased population growth, waste generation is rising and is predicted to reach 6 Mt by 2025. CH4 emitted from landfills is a significant source that accounts for 40% of overall global methane emissions. Various mitigation and emissions reduction strategies could significantly reduce the global CH4 burden at a cost comparable to the parallel and necessary CO2 reduction measures, reversing the CH4 burden to pathways that achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. CH4 mitigation directly benefits climate change, has collateral impacts on the economy, human health, and agriculture, and considerably supports CO2 mitigation. Utilizing the CO2 from the environment, methanogens produce methane and lower their carbon footprint. NGOs and the general public should act on time to overcome atmospheric methane emissions by utilizing the raw source for producing carbon-neutral fuel. However, more research potential is required for green energy production and to consider investigating the untapped potential of methanogens for dependable energy generation.}, }
@article {pmid37883565, year = {2023}, author = {Baraka, C}, title = {In Kenya, rising lakes prompt novel climate change lawsuit.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {382}, number = {6669}, pages = {361}, doi = {10.1126/science.adl5525}, pmid = {37883565}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Residents around Lake Baringo say the government has failed to address flooding caused by a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid37882251, year = {2023}, author = {Anderson, JT}, title = {The consequences of winter climate change for plant performance.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {110}, number = {12}, pages = {e16252}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.16252}, pmid = {37882251}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Trees ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid37881033, year = {2023}, author = {Ueda, T and Li, JW and Ho, SH and Singh, R and Uedo, N}, title = {Precision endoscopy in the era of climate change and sustainability.}, journal = {Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jgh.16383}, pmid = {37881033}, issn = {1440-1746}, abstract = {Global warming caused by increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has a direct impact on human health. Gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy contributes significantly to GHG emissions due to energy consumption, reprocessing of endoscopes and accessories, production of equipment, safe disposal of biohazardous waste, and travel by patients. Moreover, GHGs are also generated in histopathology through tissue processing and the production of biopsy specimen bottles. The reduction in unnecessary surveillance endoscopies and biopsies is a practical approach to decrease GHG emissions without affecting disease outcomes. This narrative review explores the role of precision medicine in GI endoscopy, such as image-enhanced endoscopy and artificial intelligence, with a focus on decreasing unnecessary endoscopic procedures and biopsies in the surveillance and diagnosis of premalignant lesions in the esophagus, stomach, and colon. This review offers strategies to minimize unnecessary endoscopic procedures and biopsies, decrease GHG emissions, and maintain high-quality patient care, thereby contributing to sustainable healthcare practices.}, }
@article {pmid37880976, year = {2023}, author = {Ayejoto, DA and Agbasi, JC and Nwazelibe, VE and Egbueri, JC and Alao, JO}, title = {Understanding the connections between climate change, air pollution, and human health in Africa: Insights from a literature review.}, journal = {Journal of environmental science and health. Part C, Toxicology and carcinogenesis}, volume = {41}, number = {3-4}, pages = {77-120}, doi = {10.1080/26896583.2023.2267332}, pmid = {37880976}, issn = {2689-6591}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Aged ; *Air Pollutants/toxicity/analysis ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change and air pollution are two interconnected global challenges that have profound impacts on human health. In Africa, a continent known for its rich biodiversity and diverse ecosystems, the adverse effects of climate change and air pollution are particularly concerning. This review study examines the implications of air pollution and climate change for human health and well-being in Africa. It explores the intersection of these two factors and their impact on various health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disorders, mental health, and vulnerable populations such as children and the elderly. The study highlights the disproportionate effects of air pollution on vulnerable groups and emphasizes the need for targeted interventions and policies to protect their health. Furthermore, it discusses the role of climate change in exacerbating air pollution and the potential long-term consequences for public health in Africa. The review also addresses the importance of considering temperature and precipitation changes as modifiers of the health effects of air pollution. By synthesizing existing research, this study aims to shed light on complex relationships and highlight the key findings, knowledge gaps, and potential solutions for mitigating the impacts of climate change and air pollution on human health in the region. The insights gained from this review can inform evidence-based policies and interventions to mitigate the adverse effects on human health and promote sustainable development in Africa.}, }
@article {pmid37880894, year = {2023}, author = {D'Ovidio, MC and Lancia, A and Melis, P and Vonesch, N and Tomao, P and Grandi, C and Annesi-Maesano, I}, title = {Non-malignant occupational respiratory diseases and climate change.}, journal = {The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease}, volume = {27}, number = {11}, pages = {858-863}, pmid = {37880894}, issn = {1815-7920}, mesh = {Humans ; *Rhinitis ; Climate Change ; *Asthma/etiology/complications ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; *Respiration Disorders ; *Occupational Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; *Occupational Exposure/adverse effects ; *Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/complications ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases/complications ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Respiratory diseases of infectious, allergic, neoplastic or degenerative origin are due to the interaction of environmental and occupational risk factors, individual susceptibility and other co-factors and comorbidities. Asthma and other respiratory pathologies can be worsened by climate change and exposure to other agents in occupational environments.METHODS: PubMed and Scopus, and several websites on public and occupational health were queried to find publications and documents on work-related respiratory diseases, asthma, rhinitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumoconiosis and allergic alveolitis in association with climate change.RESULTS: Most of the retrieved articles concerned asthma (75 in Scopus), while the other topics were less frequently covered in the scientific literature, with a maximum of 29 papers for rhinitis and 23 for COPD. The most important terms highlighted by the word clouds were 'health', 'air', 'pollution', and, only for asthma and rhinitis, 'pollen' and 'allergic/allergy'. Website data on public and occupational health, and climate change were reported.CONCLUSIONS: Assessment and management of respiratory diseases that recognise occupational exposures should be improved, and more research into integrated approaches should be favoured. Health surveillance practices for workers exposed to agents that cause respiratory diseases should be implemented. The development of biomarkers of exposure, effect and susceptibility needs further study.}, }
@article {pmid37880226, year = {2023}, author = {Michalek, AT and Villarini, G and Husic, A}, title = {Climate change projected to impact structural hillslope connectivity at the global scale.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {6788}, pmid = {37880226}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Structural connectivity describes how landscapes facilitate the transfer of matter and plays a critical role in the flux of water, solutes, and sediment across the Earth's surface. The strength of a landscape's connectivity is a function of climatic and tectonic processes, but the importance of these drivers is poorly understood, particularly in the context of climate change. Here, we provide global estimates of structural connectivity at the hillslope level and develop a model to describe connectivity accounting for tectonic and climate processes. We find that connectivity is primarily controlled by tectonics, with climate as a second order control. However, we show climate change is projected to alter global-scale connectivity at the end of the century (2070 to 2100) by up to 4% for increasing greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Notably, the Ganges River, the world's most populated basin, is projected to experience a large increase in connectivity. Conversely, the Amazon River and the Pacific coast of Patagonia are projected to experience the largest decreases in connectivity. Modeling suggests that, as the climate warms, it could lead to increased erosion in source areas, while decreased rainfall may hinder sediment flow downstream, affecting landscape connectivity with implications for human and environmental health.}, }
@article {pmid37880061, year = {2023}, author = {Cabrera López, C and Cabrera Navarro, P}, title = {Health and climate change.}, journal = {Medicina clinica}, volume = {161}, number = {11}, pages = {483-484}, doi = {10.1016/j.medcli.2023.09.006}, pmid = {37880061}, issn = {1578-8989}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid37878387, year = {2023}, author = {Dick-Sagoe, C and Nkrumah Hope, K and Dick-Sagoe, AD}, title = {Climate change and the livelihoods of food crop farmers in Lesotho: Lessons for the implementation of the national climate change adaptation strategy.}, journal = {Journal of emergency management (Weston, Mass.)}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {133-143}, doi = {10.5055/jem.0674}, pmid = {37878387}, issn = {1543-5865}, abstract = {The vast majority of Lesotho's rural population is reliant on agriculture for survival. However, Lesotho, Southern Africa is extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change, which has a negative impact on rural livelihoods. Furthermore, despite the fiscal challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, Lesotho's National Climate Change Policy Implementation Strategy has been hampered by implementation issues and has yet to be implemented. This sparked the necessity for this research, which aims to inform the government of Lesotho on how farmers are combating climate change in their own tiny way. This study employs a survey to gather data from 200 farmers from farming villages across the country's 10 regions. According to the findings of this study, farmers have experienced climate change in the areas of drying rivers, delayed on-set of rainfall, and excessive frost or cold. As a result of these events, farmers have experienced poorer agricultural yields, increased insect and disease attacks, and lower-than-normal harvests. The adaptation methods the farmers are using include the employment of indigenous technology for pest and disease control, fruit tree planting, conservation agriculture (water and soil conservation), and rainwater harvest storage for use during dry seasons. Some of these adaptation strategies are feared to cause further environmental challenges for Lesotho. Therefore, in order to enhance the lives of Lesotho's farmers, the government of Lesotho should consider implementing the National Climate Change Policy Implementation Strategy.}, }
@article {pmid37878120, year = {2023}, author = {Sarker, PK and Paul, AS and Karmoker, D}, title = {Mitigating climate change and pandemic impacts on global food security: dual sustainable agriculture approach (2S approach).}, journal = {Planta}, volume = {258}, number = {6}, pages = {104}, pmid = {37878120}, issn = {1432-2048}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Pandemics ; Agriculture ; Crop Production ; Crops, Agricultural ; }, abstract = {Simultaneous application of two sustainability approaches such as the application of biofertilizers to GM plants and microbe bioengineering to enhance physiological response and beneficial interaction with GM plants may have a significant impact on strengthening global food security amid climate change and the pandemic. The second sustainable development goal (SDG 02, Zero Hunger) aims global agricultural sustainability and food security challenges. The agriculture sector has been an integral part of developing countries for millions of farmers and their families. Their contribution provides stability of raw matter related to food availability. But climate change, higher population growth and worldwide pandemics are the main obstacles to food quality, higher crop productivity and global food security. Scientists are concerned with the manifestation of agriculture sustainability in the modern crop management approach to resolving the issues. It is the only way to higher yield productivity by protecting the environment, conserving natural resources, and slowing climate change. Several strategies can be an option to implement, yet the proposed two sustainability approach or 2S approach will be the significant way toward the goal of zero hunger. The first sustainability approach is an application of genetically modified (S1: GMO) Plants and the other is an application of beneficiary plant growth-promoting microbes (S2: Biofertilizers) to the plants for both higher crops and maintenance of the environment. This study summarizes the essential points of S1 and S2 for the widespread utilization of the 2S approach in agriculture and recommends the potential alternatives to be implemented to produce food for all. Simultaneous application of the 2S approach can defeat all threats to gain sustainability in agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid37876678, year = {2023}, author = {Palmeiro-Silva, YK and Yglesias-González, M and Blanco-Villafuerte, L and Canal-Solis, K and Neyra, RC and Fernández-Guzmán, D and Sarmiento, JH and Lavarello, R and Lescano, AG and Melo, O and Paz Soldán, VA and Rojas-Rueda, D and Romanello, M and Salas, MF and Takahashi, B and Valcárcel, A and Buss, D and Hartinger, S}, title = {The Lancet Countdown South America: increasing health opportunities by identifying the gaps in health and climate change research.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {26}, number = {}, pages = {100605}, pmid = {37876678}, issn = {2667-193X}, support = {D43 TW007393/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {South America is experiencing the effects of climate change, including extreme weather events and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. These effects interact with existing social vulnerabilities, exacerbating their impact on the health and wellbeing of populations. This viewpoint highlights four main messages from the series, which presented key gaps from five different perspectives of health and climate. First, there is an overall need for local analyses of priority topics to inform public policy, which include national and sub-national evidence to adequately strengthen responses and preparedness for climate change hazards and address relevant social vulnerabilities in South American countries. Second, research in health and climate is done in silos and the intersection is not clear in terms of responsibility and leadership; therefore, transdisciplinary research and action are key. Third, climate research, policies, and action need to be reflected in effective funding schemes, which until now are very limited. For adaptation and mitigation policies to be effective, they need a robust and long-term funding scheme. Finally, climate action is a big opportunity for healthier and more prosperous societies in South America, taking the advantage of strategic climate policies to face the challenges of climate change and tackle existing social inequities.}, }
@article {pmid37876675, year = {2023}, author = {Palmeiro-Silva, YK and Lescano, AG and Flores, EC and Astorga E, Y and Rojas, L and Chavez, MG and Mora-Rivera, W and Hartinger, SM}, title = {Identifying gaps on health impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities to climate change on human health and wellbeing in South America: a scoping review.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {26}, number = {}, pages = {100580}, pmid = {37876675}, issn = {2667-193X}, support = {D43 TW007393/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: There is an important gap in regional information on climate change and health, limiting the development of science-based climate policies in South American countries. This study aims to identify the main gaps in the existing scientific literature on the impacts, exposure, and vulnerabilities of climate change on population health. A scoping review was performed guided by four sub-questions focused on the impacts of climate change on physical and mental health, exposure and vulnerability factors of population to climate hazards. The main findings showed that physical impacts mainly included infectious diseases, while mental health impacts included trauma, depression, and anxiety. Evidence on population exposure to climate hazards is limited, and social determinants of health and individual factors were identified as vulnerability factors. Overall, evidence on the intersection between climate change and health is limited in South America and has been generated in silos, with limited transdisciplinary research. More formal and systematic information should be generated to inform public policy.<br><br>FUNDING: None.}, }
@article {pmid37876673, year = {2023}, author = {Takahashi, B and Gil Posse, C and Sergeeva, M and Salas, MF and Wojczynski, S and Hartinger, S and Yglesias-González, M}, title = {Climate change and public health in South America: a scoping review of governance and public engagement research.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {26}, number = {}, pages = {100603}, pmid = {37876673}, issn = {2667-193X}, abstract = {This scoping review examines peer-reviewed literature of governance and public engagement at the intersection of public health and climate change in South America. The review shows significant gaps in academic publications, particularly because health was mostly a secondary theme examined in the studies. The few studies about governmental interventions (e.g., policies and programs) suggest that these have not been effective. Regarding public engagement, no studies examined social media engagement with health and climate change, and only one examined news coverage. Finally, most articles focused primarily on individual countries, with few comparative or regional analyses of South America. Strategic action addressing climate change and its effects on public health needs to be based on empirical evidence.}, }
@article {pmid37876671, year = {2023}, author = {Helo Sarmiento, J and Melo, O and Ortiz-Alvarado, L and Pantoja Vallejos, C and Reyes-Mandujano, IF}, title = {Economic impacts associated with the health effects of climate change in South America: a scoping review.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {26}, number = {}, pages = {100606}, pmid = {37876671}, issn = {2667-193X}, abstract = {This scoping review assesses the current evidence on the health impacts of climate change and associated economic costs in South America. In total, 3281 studies were identified using a systematic search strategy, but only 23 articles met the inclusion criteria and were analysed. The results from these articles indicate that the health effects of climate change will likely be costly for South America; however, evidence is limited to a handful of countries or regional analyses that ignore heterogeneity across and within countries. Most of the analysed studies looking at extreme weather events related to climate change focus on the effects and costs of droughts and fire events. A broader understanding of the topic could be achieved by estimating other extreme weather events' health effects and costs, using appropriate research methods to identify causal impacts, and including a more comprehensive and representative regional population sample. Beyond identifying effects, it is important to investigate demand responses for healthcare services, associated costs, availability and expansion of infrastructure, and cost-effectiveness of policies aimed at coping with and adapting to the health dimension of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37875934, year = {2023}, author = {Dam, J and Wright, A and Bos, JJA and Bragge, P}, title = {Global issues, local action: exploring local governments use of research in "tackling climate change and its impacts on health" in Victoria, Australia.}, journal = {BMC health services research}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {1142}, pmid = {37875934}, issn = {1472-6963}, mesh = {Humans ; Victoria ; *Local Government ; *Climate Change ; Public Health ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Local government plays an important role in addressing complex public health challenges. While the use of research in this work is important, it is often poorly understood. This study aimed to build knowledge about how research is used by investigating its use by local government authorities (LGAs) in Victoria, Australia in responding to a new legislative requirement to prioritise climate and health in public health planning. The role of collaboration was also explored.<br><br>METHODS: Informed by Normalization Process Theory (NPT), this study adopted multiple research methods, combining data from an online survey and face-to-face interviews. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics; thematic analysis was used to analyse qualitative data.<br><br>RESULTS: Participants comprised 15 interviewees, and 46 survey respondents from 40 different LGAs. Research was most commonly accessed via evidence synthesis, and largely used to inform understanding about climate and health. When and how research was used was shaped by contextual factors including legislation, community values and practical limitations of how research needed to be communicated to decision-makers. Collaboration was more commonly associated with research access than use.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Greater investment in the production and dissemination of localised research, that identifies local issues (e.g. climate risk factors) and is tailored to the communication needs of local audiences is needed to foster more impactful research use in local public health policy.}, }
@article {pmid37875034, year = {2023}, author = {Siqueira-Silva, T and Martinez, PA}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the distribution of venomous Conus (Gastropoda: Conidae) species in the Indo-Pacific region.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {192}, number = {}, pages = {106237}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106237}, pmid = {37875034}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Conus Snail ; *Gastropoda ; Venoms ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting the distribution of marine organisms worldwide, including venomous marine gastropods that offer risks to human health, but also potential pharmacological resources, such as Conus sp. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools for predicting species distribution under climate change. The objective of our study was to evaluate the potential distribution of Conus geographus and C. textile in the Indo-Pacific region under different climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2090. We constructed SDMs with MaxEnt for each species, using bioclimatic variables from Bio-ORACLE and NOAA, and occurrence data from GBIF. We projected the best-fit model for the present and different future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). We obtained high accuracy SDMs for C. geographus and C. textile, with Temperature and Primary Productivity as the main explanatory variables. Our future projections reveal that both species may react differently to climate change. Southeast Asia and Micronesia will continue to provide a climatically appropriate environment for both species; however, they may become more suitable for C. geographus and less suitable for C. textile. This may lead to a higher risk of human envenomation by C. geographus, but a lower risk by C. textile. A decreased suitability for C. textile may also lead to the loss of potential pharmacological resources among its range. Our study emphasizes how SDMs can be used to assess the future distribution of species with human health implications, which can aid in the monitoring of venomous marine species.}, }
@article {pmid37874879, year = {2023}, author = {Sunny, EM and Ashok, B and Balakrishnan, J and Kurths, J}, title = {The ocean carbon sinks and climate change.}, journal = {Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)}, volume = {33}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1063/5.0164196}, pmid = {37874879}, issn = {1089-7682}, abstract = {The oceans act as major carbon dioxide sinks, greatly influencing global climate. Knowing how these sinks evolve would advance our understanding of climate dynamics. We construct a conceptual box model for the oceans to predict the temporal and spatial evolution of CO2 of each ocean, and the time-evolution of their salinities. Surface currents, deep water flows, freshwater influx, and major fluvial contributions are considered, as also the effect of changing temperature with time. We uncover the strongest carbon uptake to be from the Southern Ocean, followed by the Atlantic. The North Atlantic evolves into the most saline ocean with time and increasing temperatures. The Amazon River is found to have significant effects on CO2 sequestration trends. An alternative flow scenario of the Amazon is investigated, giving interesting insights into the global climate in the Miocene epoch.}, }
@article {pmid37874036, year = {2023}, author = {Ediz, &#xc7; and Yanik, D}, title = {The effects of climate change awareness on mental health: Comparison of climate anxiety and hopelessness levels in Turkish youth.}, journal = {The International journal of social psychiatry}, volume = {69}, number = {8}, pages = {2157-2166}, doi = {10.1177/00207640231206060}, pmid = {37874036}, issn = {1741-2854}, mesh = {Humans ; Adolescent ; *Mental Health ; Turkey/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Anxiety/epidemiology/psychology ; Anxiety Disorders ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate anxiety, one of the negative emotions created by climate change, is particularly prevalent among climate activists and young individuals who hold a more serious concern for environmental issues.<br><br>AIM: This study aims to determine the effects of climate change awareness on the mental health of young people in Turkey.<br><br>METHODS: Designed as a descriptive and two-group comparative study, the target population of this study comprises young individuals aged 15 to 24 who are climate activists and those who are not. The study data was collected through e-questionnaires administered between March 15 and May 10, 2023, using a demographic characteristics form, a climate change anxiety scale and the Beck Hopelessness Scale. The study was completed with a total of 306 participants, including 103 young individuals who are climate activists and 203 young individuals who are not climate activists.<br><br>RESULTS: We determined that young individuals who are climate activists have a high level of climate change anxiety, while those who are not climate activists have a moderate level of climate change anxiety. We found that the levels of hopelessness in both groups are at a mild level. Additionally, within the group of climate activists, we observed that individuals with a higher level of knowledge about climate change tend to exhibit greater levels of hopelessness.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We identified that as awareness and knowledge about climate change increase, climate change anxiety, and hopelessness also increase. There is a need for studies to determine youth-specific mental health interventions to address mental health issues related to climate change awareness.}, }
@article {pmid37872579, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, N and Zhang, Y and Du, C and Song, J and Huang, J and Gong, Y and Jiang, H and Tong, Y and Yin, J and Wang, J and Jiang, F and Chen, Y and Jiang, Q and Dong, Y and Zhou, Y}, title = {Prediction of Oncomelania hupensis distribution in association with climate change using machine learning models.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {377}, pmid = {37872579}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; China/epidemiology ; *Schistosomiasis/prevention &amp; control ; *Schistosoma japonicum ; *Gastropoda ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Oncomelania hupensis is the sole intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum. Its emergence and recurrence pose a constant challenge to the elimination of schistosomiasis in China. It is important to accurately predict the snail distribution for schistosomiasis prevention and control.<br><br>METHODS: Data describing the distribution of O. hupensis in 2016 was obtained from the Yunnan Institute of Endemic Disease Control and Prevention. Eight machine learning algorithms, including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), generalized boosting model (GBM), neural network (NN), classification and regression trees (CART), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and generalized additive model (GAM), were employed to explore the impacts of climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic variables on the distribution of suitable areas for O. hupensis. Predictions of the distribution of suitable areas for O. hupensis were made for various periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s) under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585).<br><br>RESULTS: The RF model exhibited the best performance (AUC: 0.991, sensitivity: 0.982, specificity: 0.995, kappa: 0.942) and the CART model performed the worst (AUC: 0.884, sensitivity: 0.922, specificity: 0.943, kappa: 0.829). Based on the RF model, the top six important variables were as follows: Bio15 (precipitation seasonality) (33.6%), average annual precipitation (25.2%), Bio2 (mean diurnal temperature range) (21.7%), Bio19 (precipitation of the coldest quarter) (14.5%), population density (13.5%), and night light index (11.1%). The results demonstrated that the overall suitable habitats for O. hupensis were predominantly distributed in the schistosomiasis-endemic areas located in northwestern Yunnan Province under the current climate situation and were predicted to expand north- and westward due to climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the prediction of the current distribution of O. hupensis corresponded well with the actual records. Furthermore, our study provided compelling evidence that the geographical distribution of snails was projected to expand toward the north and west of Yunnan Province in the coming decades, indicating that the distribution of snails is driven by climate factors. Our findings will be of great significance for formulating effective strategies for snail control.}, }
@article {pmid37869716, year = {2023}, author = {Burggren, WW and Mendez-Sanchez, JF}, title = {"Bet hedging" against climate change in developing and adult animals: roles for stochastic gene expression, phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic inheritance and adaptation.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1245875}, pmid = {37869716}, issn = {1664-042X}, abstract = {Animals from embryos to adults experiencing stress from climate change have numerous mechanisms available for enhancing their long-term survival. In this review we consider these options, and how viable they are in a world increasingly experiencing extreme weather associated with climate change. A deeply understood mechanism involves natural selection, leading to evolution of new adaptations that help cope with extreme and stochastic weather events associated with climate change. While potentially effective at staving off environmental challenges, such adaptations typically occur very slowly and incrementally over evolutionary time. Consequently, adaptation through natural selection is in most instances regarded as too slow to aid survival in rapidly changing environments, especially when considering the stochastic nature of extreme weather events associated with climate change. Alternative mechanisms operating in a much shorter time frame than adaptation involve the rapid creation of alternate phenotypes within a life cycle or a few generations. Stochastic gene expression creates multiple phenotypes from the same genotype even in the absence of environmental cues. In contrast, other mechanisms for phenotype change that are externally driven by environmental clues include well-understood developmental phenotypic plasticity (variation, flexibility), which can enable rapid, within-generation changes. Increasingly appreciated are epigenetic influences during development leading to rapid phenotypic changes that can also immediately be very widespread throughout a population, rather than confined to a few individuals as in the case of favorable gene mutations. Such epigenetically-induced phenotypic plasticity can arise rapidly in response to stressors within a generation or across a few generations and just as rapidly be "sunsetted" when the stressor dissipates, providing some capability to withstand environmental stressors emerging from climate change. Importantly, survival mechanisms resulting from adaptations and developmental phenotypic plasticity are not necessarily mutually exclusive, allowing for classic "bet hedging". Thus, the appearance of multiple phenotypes within a single population provides for a phenotype potentially optimal for some future environment. This enhances survival during stochastic extreme weather events associated with climate change. Finally, we end with recommendations for future physiological experiments, recommending in particular that experiments investigating phenotypic flexibility adopt more realistic protocols that reflect the stochastic nature of weather.}, }
@article {pmid37869658, year = {2023}, author = {Comuzzo, P and Del Fresno, JM and Voce, S and Loira, I and Morata, A}, title = {Emerging biotechnologies and non-thermal technologies for winemaking in a context of global warming.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1273940}, pmid = {37869658}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {In the current situation, wine areas are affected by several problems in a context of global warming: asymmetric maturities, pH increasing, high alcohol degree and flat wines with low freshness and poor aroma profile. The use of emerging biotechnologies allows to control or manage such problems. Emerging non-Saccharomyces as Lachancea thermotolerans are very useful for controlling pH by the formation of stable lactic acid from sugars with a slight concomitant alcohol reduction. Lower pH improves freshness increasing simultaneously microbiological stability. The use of Hanseniaspora spp. (specially H. vineae and H. opuntiae) or Metschnikowia pulcherrima promotes a better aroma complexity and improves wine sensory profile by the expression of a more complex metabolic pattern and the release of extracellular enzymes. Some of them are also compatible or synergic with the acidification by L. thermotolerans, and M. pulcherrima is an interesting biotool for reductive winemaking and bioprotection. The use of bioprotection is a powerful tool in this context, allowing oxidation control by oxygen depletion, the inhibition of some wild microorganisms, improving the implantation of some starters and limiting SO2. This can be complemented with the use of reductive yeast derivatives with high contents of reducing peptides and relevant compounds such as glutathione that also are interesting to reduce SO2. Finally, the use of emerging non-thermal technologies as Ultra High-Pressure Homogenization (UHPH) and Pulsed Light (PL) increases wine stability by microbial control and inactivation of oxidative enzymes, improving the implantation of emerging non-Saccharomyces and lowering SO2 additions. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT.}, }
@article {pmid37869443, year = {2023}, author = {Aryal, S and Grießinger, J and Dyola, N and Gaire, NP and Bhattarai, T and Bräuning, A}, title = {INTRAGRO: A machine learning approach to predict future growth of trees under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e10626}, pmid = {37869443}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The escalating impact of climate change on global terrestrial ecosystems demands a robust prediction of the trees' growth patterns and physiological adaptation for sustainable forestry and successful conservation efforts. Understanding these dynamics at an intra-annual resolution can offer deeper insights into tree responses under various future climate scenarios. However, the existing approaches to infer cambial or leaf phenological change are mainly focused on certain climatic zones (such as higher latitudes) or species with foliage discolouration during the fall season. In this study, we demonstrated a novel approach (INTRAGRO) to combine intra-annual circumference records generated by dendrometers coupled to the output of climate models to predict future tree growth at intra-annual resolution using a series of supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms. INTRAGRO performed well using our dataset, that is dendrometer data of P. roxburghii Sarg. from the subtropical mid-elevation belt of Nepal, with robust test statistics. Our growth prediction shows enhanced tree growth at our study site for the middle and end of the 21st century. This result is remarkable since the predicted growing season by INTRAGRO is expected to shorten due to changes in seasonal precipitation. INTRAGRO's key advantage is the opportunity to analyse changes in trees' intra-annual growth dynamics on a global scale, regardless of the investigated tree species, regional climate and geographical conditions. Such information is important to assess tree species' growth performance and physiological adaptation to growing season change under different climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid37869439, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, Y and Xie, L and Zhou, X and Chen, R and Zhao, G and Zhang, F}, title = {Prediction of the potentially suitable areas of Leonurus japonicus in China based on future climate change using the optimized MaxEnt model.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e10597}, pmid = {37869439}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Leonurus japonicus Houtt. is a traditional Chinese medicinal plant with high medicinal and edible value. Wild L. japonicus resources have reduced dramatically in recent years. This study predicted the response of distribution range of L. japonicus to climate change in China, which provided scientific basis for the conservation and utilization. In this study, 489 occurrence points of L. japonicus were selected based on GIS technology and spThin package. The default parameters of MaxEnt model were adjusted by using ENMeva1 package of R environment, and the optimized MaxEnt model was used to analyze the distribution of L. japonicus. When the feature combination in the model parameters is hing and the regularization multiplier is 1.5, the MaxEnt model has a higher degree of optimization. With the AUC of 0.830, our model showed a good predictive performance. The results showed that L. japonicus were widely distributed in the current period. The maximum temperature of warmest month, the min temperature of coldest month, the precipitation of wettest month, the precipitation of driest month, and altitude were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of L. japonicus. Under the three climate change scenarios, the suitable distribution area of L. japonicus will range shift to high latitudes, indicating that the distribution of L. japonicus has a strong response to climate change. The regional change rate is the lowest under the SSP126-2090s scenario and the highest under the SSP585-2090s scenario.}, }
@article {pmid37867892, year = {2023}, author = {Feigin, SV and Wiebers, DO and Lueddeke, G and Morand, S and Lee, K and Knight, A and Brainin, M and Feigin, VL and Whitfort, A and Marcum, J and Shackelford, TK and Skerratt, LF and Winkler, AS}, title = {Proposed solutions to anthropogenic climate change: A systematic literature review and a new way forward.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {e20544}, pmid = {37867892}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Humanity is now facing what may be the biggest challenge to its existence: irreversible climate change brought about by human activity. Our planet is in a state of emergency, and we only have a short window of time (7-8 years) to enact meaningful change. The goal of this systematic literature review is to summarize the peer-reviewed literature on proposed solutions to climate change in the last 20 years (2002-2022), and to propose a framework for a unified approach to solving this climate change crisis. Solutions reviewed include a transition toward use of renewable energy resources, reduced energy consumption, rethinking the global transport sector, and nature-based solutions. This review highlights one of the most important but overlooked pieces in the puzzle of solving the climate change problem - the gradual shift to a plant-based diet and global phaseout of factory (industrialized animal) farming, the most damaging and prolific form of animal agriculture. The gradual global phaseout of industrialized animal farming can be achieved by increasingly replacing animal meat and other animal products with plant-based products, ending government subsidies for animal-based meat, dairy, and eggs, and initiating taxes on such products. Failure to act will ultimately result in a scenario of irreversible climate change with widespread famine and disease, global devastation, climate refugees, and warfare. We therefore suggest an "All Life" approach, invoking the interconnectedness of all life forms on our planet. The logistics for achieving this include a global standardization of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) or similar measures and the introduction of a regulatory body for verification of such measures. These approaches will help deliver environmental and sustainability benefits for our planet far beyond an immediate reduction in global warming.}, }
@article {pmid37867624, year = {2022}, author = {Rahmani, AA and Susanna, D and Febrian, T}, title = {The relationship between climate change and malaria in South-East Asia: A systematic review of the evidence.}, journal = {F1000Research}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1555}, pmid = {37867624}, issn = {2046-1402}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Mosquito Vectors/parasitology ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; *Anopheles/parasitology ; Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; Asia, Eastern ; }, abstract = {Background: Climatic change is an inescapable fact that implies alterations in seasons where weather occurrences have their schedules shift from the regular and magnitudes intensify to more extreme variations over a multi-year period. Southeast Asia is one of the many regions experiencing changes in climate and concurrently still has endemicities of malaria. Given that previous studies have suggested the influence of climate on malaria's vector the Anopheles mosquitoes and parasite the Plasmodium group, this study was conducted to review the evidence of associations made between malaria cases and climatic variables in Southeast Asia throughout a multi-year period. Methods: Our systematic literature review was informed by the PRISMA guidelines and registered in PROSPERO: CRD42022301826 on 5 [th] February 2022. We searched for original articles in English and Indonesian that focused on the associations between climatic variables and malaria cases. Results: The initial identification stage resulted in 535 records of possible relevance and after abstract screening and eligibility assessment we included 19 research articles for the systematic review. Based on the reviewed articles, changing temperatures, precipitation, humidity and windspeed were considered for statistical association across a multi-year period and are correlated with malaria cases in various regions throughout Southeast Asia. Conclusions: According to the review of evidence, climatic variables that exhibited a statistically significant correlation with malaria cases include temperatures, precipitation, and humidity. The strength of each climatic variable varies across studies. Our systematic review of the limited evidence indicates that further research for the Southeast Asia region remains to be explored.}, }
@article {pmid37867620, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, J and Varghese, BM and Hansen, A and Dear, K and Morgan, G and Driscoll, T and Zhang, Y and Gourley, M and Capon, A and Bi, P}, title = {Projection of high temperature-related burden of kidney disease in Australia under different climate change, population and adaptation scenarios: population-based study.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {100916}, pmid = {37867620}, issn = {2666-6065}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The dual impacts of a warming climate and population ageing lead to an increasing kidney disease prevalence, highlighting the importance of quantifying the burden of kidney disease (BoKD) attributable to high temperature, yet studies on this subject are limited. The study aims to quantify the BoKD attributable to high temperatures in Australia across all states and territories, and project future BoKD under climatic, population and adaptation scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: Data on disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) due to kidney disease, including years of life lost (YLL), and years lived with disability (YLD), were collected during 2003-2018 (baseline) across all states and territories in Australia. The temperature-response association was estimated using a meta-regression model. Future temperature projections were calculated using eight downscaled climate models to estimate changes in attributable BoKD centred around 2030s and 2050s, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), while considering changes in population size and age structure, and human adaptation to climate change.<br><br>FINDINGS: Over the baseline (2003-2018), high-temperature contributed to 2.7% (Standard Deviation: 0.4%) of the observed BoKD in Australia. The future population attributable fraction and the attributable BoKD, projected using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, showed a gradually increasing trend when assuming no human adaptation. Future projections were most strongly influenced by the population change, with the high temperature-related BoKD increasing by 18.4-67.4% compared to the baseline under constant population and by 100.2-291.2% when accounting for changes in population size and age structure. However, when human adaptation was adopted (from no to partial to full), the high temperature-related BoKD became smaller.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: It is expected that increasing high temperature exposure will substantially contribute to higher BoKD across Australia, underscoring the urgent need for public health interventions to mitigate the negative health impacts of a warming climate on BoKD.<br><br>FUNDING: Australian Research Council Discovery Program.}, }
@article {pmid37866837, year = {2023}, author = {Ziegler, C and Muchira, J}, title = {Climate Change: The Ultimate Determinant of Health.}, journal = {Primary care}, volume = {50}, number = {4}, pages = {645-655}, doi = {10.1016/j.pop.2023.04.010}, pmid = {37866837}, issn = {1558-299X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change ubiquitously influences social determinants of health via various pathways. Disproportionately burdening communities who have contributed the least to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and benefitted the least from economic benefits obtained through high-emission activities that cause climate change, climate justice must be centered in any discussion of health equity. This article will explore how climate change contributes to health disparities in vulnerable populations, why this is a justice issue for primary care to address, and what we can do to promote equity, resilience, and adaption in our current economic system while mitigating GHG emissions, leveraging the health sector.}, }
@article {pmid37864944, year = {2023}, author = {Ha Chi, NN and Kim Oanh, NT and Winijkul, E and Xue, W and Nguyen, LT}, title = {Bi-decadal trend of atmospheric emissions from thermal power plants in Mainland Southeast Asia: Implications on acid deposition and climate change Mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {119252}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119252}, pmid = {37864944}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Asia, Southeastern ; Coal ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Power Plants ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {Steady increase in electricity generation and heavy reliance on coal in Mainland Southeast Asia (M-SEA) create huge pressure on the environment. This study used information collected from individual thermal power plants (TPPs) in M-SEA to calculate emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) for 2010, 2015 and 2019. The emissions were projected to 2030 following the latest national Power Development Plans. The emission results were analyzed in relation to the power development by country and fuel type, and environmental impacts. The region collective annual TPP emissions in 2019, in Gg/yr, were 27 PM2.5, 77 PM10, 0.7 BC, 4.9 OC, 255 SO2, 451 NOx, 91 CO, 12 NMVOC, 0.4 NH3, 260 CO2, 13 CH4, and 26 N2O. Coal-fired TPPs dominated the emissions of most species while NG-fired contributed the largest amounts of NH3 and CH4. Bi-decadal increase in energy production from TPPs of nearly 3 times is accompanied by 2.7 times increase in emissions. The 2010-2019 period saw average emissions increase by 1.9 times (TPPs' energy production increased 1.6 times), slightly higher than the rate of 1.4 times projected for 2019-2030 (double TPPs' energy production). The current intrusion rate of renewable energy accompanied by phasing-out of old TPPs are still by far insufficient to reverse the emission trend. Aggressive power development in Vietnam with its heavy coal reliance made it the largest emitter in 2019 and the projected for 2030, followed by Thailand. Spatially, higher emissions are seen over locations of large coal-fired TPPs in Vietnam and Thailand. Available rainwater composition monitoring data showed higher deposition amounts of sulfate and nitrate in areas located near or downwind of large TPPs. Significant GHG emissions projected for TPPs in 2030 indicated that TPPs should be the priority for emission reduction to achieve Nationally Determined Contribution targets. Emission database produced by this study can be used in dispersion modeling studies to assess impacts of TPPs on air quality, health, and acid deposition.}, }
@article {pmid37864940, year = {2023}, author = {Bukowski, MF}, title = {Pax Climatica: the Nash equilibrium and the geopolitics of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {119217}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119217}, pmid = {37864940}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Game Theory ; }, }
@article {pmid37863940, year = {2023}, author = {Bernatchez, L and Ferchaud, AL and Berger, CS and Venney, CJ and Xuereb, A}, title = {Genomics for monitoring and understanding species responses to global climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Genetics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37863940}, issn = {1471-0064}, abstract = {All life forms across the globe are experiencing drastic changes in environmental conditions as a result of global climate change. These environmental changes are happening rapidly, incur substantial socioeconomic costs, pose threats to biodiversity and diminish a species' potential to adapt to future environments. Understanding and monitoring how organisms respond to human-driven climate change is therefore a major priority for the conservation of biodiversity in a rapidly changing environment. Recent developments in genomic, transcriptomic and epigenomic technologies are enabling unprecedented insights into the evolutionary processes and molecular bases of adaptation. This Review summarizes methods that apply and integrate omics tools to experimentally investigate, monitor and predict how species and communities in the wild cope with global climate change, which is by genetically adapting to new environmental conditions, through range shifts or through phenotypic plasticity. We identify advantages and limitations of each method and discuss future research avenues that would improve our understanding of species' evolutionary responses to global climate change, highlighting the need for holistic, multi-omics approaches to ecosystem monitoring during global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37863848, year = {2023}, author = {Railean, V and Sobolewski, J and Jaśkowski, JM}, title = {Anthrax in one health in Southern and Southeastern Europe - the effect of climate change?.}, journal = {Veterinary research communications}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37863848}, issn = {1573-7446}, abstract = {Anthrax is a serious infection caused by Bacillus anthracis. The anthracis spores are highly resistant and can persist in the environment for several decades. Therefore, anthrax is considered a global health threat affecting wildlife, livestock, and the general public. The resistance mechanism is influenced not only by the environment or the ecological niche but also by virulence factors. In the last 10 years the Southern and Southeastern Europe have been confronted with this threat. Recently, there have been 8 human anthrax cases reported in Croatia (2022), and 4 cases in Romania (2023). Moreover, this incident and the COVID situation could be a starting point to encourage researchers to raise the alarm. On the other hand, climate change is causing glaciers to melt and land to thaw, and many wetlands and swampy areas are being drained. It should not be forgotten that epidemiological and epizootic threats significantly affect the country's economic development. The Covid-19 epidemic best illustrates these threats.}, }
@article {pmid37863676, year = {2023}, author = {Pandipati, S and Leong, M and Basu, R and Abel, D and Hayer, S and Conry, J}, title = {Climate change: Overview of risks to pregnant persons and their offspring.}, journal = {Seminars in perinatology}, volume = {47}, number = {8}, pages = {151836}, doi = {10.1016/j.semperi.2023.151836}, pmid = {37863676}, issn = {1558-075X}, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Infant, Newborn ; Female ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Parturition ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest challenges confronting humanity. Pregnant persons, their unborn children, and offspring are particularly vulnerable, as evidenced by adverse perinatal outcomes and increased rates of childhood illnesses. Environmental inequities compound the problem of maternal health inequities, and have given rise to the environmental justice movement. The International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics and other major medical societies have worked to heighten awareness and address the deleterious health effects of climate change and toxic environmental exposures. As part of routine prenatal, neonatal, and pediatric care, neonatal-perinatal care providers should incorporate discussions with their patients and families on potential harms and also identify actions to mitigate climate change effects on their health. This article provides clinicians with an overview of how climate change affects their patients, practical guidance in caring for them, and a frame setting of the articles to follow. Clinicians have a critical role to play, and the time to act is now.}, }
@article {pmid37863285, year = {2023}, author = {Martin-Collado, D and Diaz, C and Ramón, M and Iglesias, A and Milán, MJ and Sánchez-Rodríguez, M and Carabaño, MJ}, title = {Are farmers motivated to select for heat tolerance? Linking attitudinal factor, perceived climate change impact and social trust to farmers breeding desires.}, journal = {Journal of dairy science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3168/jds.2023-23722}, pmid = {37863285}, issn = {1525-3198}, abstract = {This study provides an understanding of dairy farmers' willingness to include heat tolerance in the breeding goals and the modulating effect of socio-psychological factors and farm profile. A survey instrument including a choice experiment was designed to specifically address the trade-off between heat tolerance and milk production level. One hundred and 22 farmers, across cattle, goats and sheep farms were surveyed face-to-face. The results of the experiment show that most farmers perceive that heat stress and climate change are increasingly important problems, and that farming communities should invest more in generating knowledge and resources on mitigation strategies. However, we found limited initial support for selection for heat tolerance. This attitude changed when farmers were presented with objective information on the benefits and limitations of the different breeding choices, after which most farmers supported selection for heat tolerance but only if compromising milk production gains to a small extent. Our results show that farmers' selection choices are driven by the interactions between heat stress risk perception, attitudes toward breeding tools, social trust, the species reared and farm production level. In general, farmers willing to support selection of heat-tolerant animals are those with positive attitudes toward genetic values and genomic information and a strong perception of climate change and heat stress impact on farm. On the contrary, negative support for selection for heat tolerance is found among farmers with high milk production levels, high trust in farming magazines, livestock farmers associations, and veterinarians, and low trust in environmental and animalist groups.}, }
@article {pmid37863221, year = {2024}, author = {Sales, LP and Parrott, L}, title = {The owls are coming: positive effects of climate change in Northern ecosystems depend on grassland protection.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {907}, number = {}, pages = {167944}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167944}, pmid = {37863221}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Strigiformes ; Grassland ; Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Climate-driven migrations towards Northern latitudes are expected to reorganize biotic communities as result of range shift dynamics. However, the establishment of healthy populations of migrating species depends on habitat provision by receptor landscapes. Here, we ask if the rising temperatures and changes in precipitation regimes in western North America are likely to lead to an expansion of warm and dry-affiliated species, using the burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) as a study case. This migratory species depends on grassland habitats for nesting and breeding, so we test for the effect of the lack of grasslands on the occupancy of future suitable environments. To estimate the burrowing owl's potential distribution, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) calibrated with climate and soil information and projected onto future scenarios of climate change (low versus high greenhouse gas emission). Then, we simulated environmental sorting using habitat filter masks derived from information on habitat use and forecasts of future land use change, focusing on grasslands as nesting and breeding habitat. We found that the burrowing owl could expand its geographic distribution by 3 to 10-fold towards Northern latitudes, especially under high-emission scenarios of climate change. However, nearly half of the suitable environments (up to 53,593 km[2] of locations with suitable climate and soil) might not be covered by grasslands, due to conversion to agriculture and other human land uses which may prevent the establishment of breeding populations. Our results shed light on the pervasive effects of neglecting the preservation of grasslands across western North America, which could provide critically needed habitat for migrating species from lower latitudes. Enhancing and facilitating the colonization of novel species is a shift in the static paradigm of biodiversity conservation and a proactive measure for climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid37863213, year = {2024}, author = {Dairain, A and Voet, H and Vafeiadou, AM and De Meester, N and Rigaux, A and Van Colen, C and Vanaverbeke, J and Moens, T}, title = {Structurally stable but functionally disrupted marine microbial communities under a future climate change scenario: Potential importance for nitrous oxide emissions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {907}, number = {}, pages = {167928}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167928}, pmid = {37863213}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Greenhouse Gases ; RNA, Ribosomal, 16S ; *Mytilus edulis/chemistry ; *Microbiota ; }, abstract = {The blue mussel Mytilus edulis is a widespread and abundant bivalve species along the North Sea with high economic and ecological importance as an engineer species. The shell of mussels is intensively colonized by microbial organisms that can produce significant quantities of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas. To characterize the impacts of climate change on the composition, structure and functioning of microbial biofilms on the shell surface of M. edulis, we experimentally exposed them to orthogonal combinations of increased seawater temperature (20 vs. 23 °C) and decreased pH (8.0 vs. 7.7) for six weeks. We used amplicon sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene to characterize the alpha and beta diversity of microbial communities on the mussel shell. The functioning of microbial biofilms was assessed by measuring aerobic respiration and nitrogen emission rates. We did not report any significant impacts of climate change treatments on the diversity of mussel microbiomes nor on the structure of these communities. Lowered pH and increased temperature had antagonistic effects on the functioning of microbial communities with decreased aerobic respiration and N2O emission rates of microbial biofilms in acidified seawater compared to increased rates in warmer conditions. An overriding impact of acidification over warming was finally observed on N2O emissions when the two factors were combined. Although acidification and warming in combination significantly reduced N2O biofilm emissions, the promotion of aquaculture activities in coastal waters where shellfish do not normally occur at high biomass and density could nonetheless result in unwanted emissions of this greenhouse gas in a near future.}, }
@article {pmid37863164, year = {2024}, author = {Priyanka, EB and Vivek, S and Thangavel, S and Sampathkumar, V and Al-Zaqri, N and Warad, I}, title = {Forecasting and meta-features estimation of wastewater and climate change impacts in coastal region using manifold learning.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {240}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {117355}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117355}, pmid = {37863164}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Wastewater ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Prospective Studies ; Learning ; }, abstract = {South Asia's coastlines are the most densely inhabited and economically active ecosystems have already begun to shift due to climate change. Over the past century, climate change has contributed to a gradual and considerable rise in sea level, which has eroded shorelines and increased storm-related coastal flooding. The differences in estuary water quality over time, both seasonally and annually, have been efficiently controlled by changes in stream flow. Assessment requires digitized analytical platforms to lower the risk of catastrophes associated with climate change in coastal towns. To predict future changes in an area's vulnerability and waste planning decisions, a prospective investigation requires qualitative and quantitative scenarios. The paper concentrates on the development of a forecasting platform to evaluate the climate change and waste water impacts on the south coastal region of India. Due to the enhancement of Digitization, a multi-model ensemble combined with manifold learning is implemented on the multi-case models influencing the uncertainty probability rate of 23% and can be ignored with desired precaution on the coastal environmental. Because Manifold Learning Analysis results cannot be utilized directly in wastewater management studies because of their inherent biases, a statistical bias correction and meta-feature estimation have been implemented. Within the climate-hydrology modeling chain, the results demonstrate a wide range of expected changes in water resources in some places. Experimental statistics reveal that the forecasted rate of 91.45% will be the better choice to reduce the uncertainty of climatic change and wastewater management.}, }
@article {pmid37862373, year = {2023}, author = {Hassan, NA and Hashim, JH and Wan Puteh, SE and Wan Mahiyuddin, WR and Mohd, MSF and Shaharudin, SM and Mohammad Aidid, E and Sapuan, I}, title = {Investigation of the impacts of climate change and rising temperature on food poisoning cases in Malaysia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {10}, pages = {e0283133}, pmid = {37862373}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Adult ; Temperature ; Malaysia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Incidence ; *Foodborne Diseases ; }, abstract = {This study is an attempt to investigate climate-induced increases in morbidity rates of food poisoning cases. Monthly food poisoning cases, average monthly meteorological data, and population data from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Malaysian Ministry of Health, Malaysian Meteorological Department, and Department of Statistics Malaysia, respectively. Poisson generalised linear models were developed to assess the association between climatic parameters and the number of reported food poisoning cases. The findings revealed that the food poisoning incidence in Malaysia during the 11 years study period was 561 cases per 100 000 population for the whole country. Among the cases, females and the ethnic Malays most frequently experienced food poisoning with incidence rates of 313 cases per 100,000 and 438 cases per 100,000 population over the period of 11 years, respectively. Most of the cases occurred within the active age of 13 to 35 years old. Temperature gave a significant impact on the incidence of food poisoning cases in Selangor (95% CI: 1.033-1.479; p = 0.020), Melaka (95% CI: 1.046-2.080; p = 0.027), Kelantan (95% CI: 1.129-1.958; p = 0.005), and Sabah (95% CI: 1.127-2.690; p = 0.012) while rainfall was a protective factor in Terengganu (95% CI: 0.996-0.999; p = 0.034) at lag 0 month. For a 1.0°C increase in temperature, the excess risk of food poisoning in each state can increase up to 74.1%, whereas for every 50 mm increase in rainfall, the risk of getting food poisoning decreased by almost 10%. The study concludes that climate does affect the distribution of food poisoning cases in Selangor, Melaka, Kelantan, Sabah, and Terengganu. Food poisoning cases in other states are not directly associated with temperature but related to monthly trends and seasonality.}, }
@article {pmid37860941, year = {2023}, author = {Giffen, PS and Kilgour, JD and Jacobsen, M and Thacker, K and Holmberg, AA}, title = {The Nonclinical Assessment of Trans-1,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234ze (E)), a Near Zero Global Warming Potential Propellant for Use in Metered Dose Inhalation Products.}, journal = {International journal of toxicology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {10915818231206025}, doi = {10.1177/10915818231206025}, pmid = {37860941}, issn = {1092-874X}, abstract = {HFO-1234ze (E) is proposed as a near zero global warming propellant for use in metered dose inhaled (MDI) products. This paper describes the non-clinical safety assessment in mice, rats, and dogs and supplements previously reported data (genetic toxicology, short-term toxicology, and reproductive toxicology). In all species, HFO-1234ze (E) was only detectable in blood for a short period after dosing with no evidence of accumulation. HFO-1234ze (E) was without any toxicological effects at very high doses in subchronic (13-week mouse) and chronic (39-week dog) studies. Chronic (26-week) administration to rats at very high doses was associated with an exacerbation of rodent progressive cardiomyopathy, a well-documented background finding in rodents. In a 2-generation study, extremely high doses were associated with the early euthanasia of some lactating female rats. This finding was considered to be significantly influenced by a state of negative energy balance, reflecting the specific vulnerability of rats during lactation. These findings are considered to not pose a risk to humans with typical MDI use given they occurred at doses which far exceed those expected in patients. Overall, the nonclinical safety data for HFO-1234ze (E) support its further development as an MDI propellant.}, }
@article {pmid37860592, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, J and Fonseca, MA and Heyes, A and Yang, J and Zhang, X}, title = {How Much Will Climate Change Reduce Productivity in a High-Technology Supply Chain? Evidence from Silicon Wafer Manufacturing.}, journal = {Environmental &amp; resource economics}, volume = {86}, number = {3}, pages = {533-563}, pmid = {37860592}, issn = {0924-6460}, abstract = {The frequency of hot days in much of the world is increasing. What is the impact of high temperatures on productivity? Can technology-based adaptation mitigate such effects of climate change? We provide some answers to these questions by examining how high outdoor temperatures affect a high-technology, precision manufacturing setting. Exploiting individual-level data on the quantity and quality of work done across 35,190 worker-shifts in a leading NYSE-listed silicon wafer maker in China, we evidence a negative effect of outdoor heat on productivity. The effects are large: in our preferred linear specification, an increase in wet bulb temperature of 10∘C causes a reduction in output of 8.3%. Temperature effects exist even though the manufacturer's work-spaces are indoors and protected by high-quality climate control systems. Results are not driven by extreme weather events and are robust to alternative modelling approaches. They illustrate the potential future adverse economic effects of climate change in most of the industrialised world.}, }
@article {pmid37859502, year = {2023}, author = {Nabi, Z and Tang, RSY and Sundaram, S and Lakhtakia, S and Reddy, DN}, title = {Single-use accessories and endoscopes in the era of sustainability and climate change-A balancing act.}, journal = {Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jgh.16380}, pmid = {37859502}, issn = {1440-1746}, abstract = {Gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy is among the highest waste generator in healthcare facilities. The major reasons include production of large-volume non-renewable waste, use of single-use devices, and reprocessing or decontamination processes. Single-use endoscopic accessories have gradually replaced reusable devices over last two decades contributing to the rising impact of GI endoscopy on ecosystem. Several reports of infection outbreaks with reusable duodenoscopes raised concerns regarding the efficacy and adherence to standard disinfection protocols. Even the enhanced reprocessing techniques like double high-level disinfection have not been found to be the perfect ways for decontamination of duodenoscopes and therefore, paved the way for the development of single-use duodenoscopes. However, the use of single-use endoscopes is likely to amplify the net waste generated and carbon footprint of any endoscopy unit. Moreover, single-use devices challenge one of the major pillars of sustainability, that is, "reuse." In the era of climate change, a balanced approach is required taking into consideration patient safety as well as financial and environmental implications. The possible solutions to provide optimum care while addressing the impact on climate include selective use of disposable duodenoscopes and careful selection of accessories during a case. Other options include use of disposable endcaps and development of effective high-level disinfection techniques. The collaboration between the healthcare professionals and the manufacturers is paramount for the development of environmental friendly devices with low carbon footprint.}, }
@article {pmid37858816, year = {2024}, author = {Liu, R and Hu, Y and Zhan, X and Zhong, J and Zhao, P and Feng, H and Dong, Q and Siddique, KHM}, title = {The response of crop yield, carbon sequestration, and global warming potential to straw and biochar applications: A meta-analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {907}, number = {}, pages = {167884}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167884}, pmid = {37858816}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Soil/chemistry ; *Global Warming ; Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Sequestration ; Agriculture/methods ; China ; }, abstract = {Organic materials play an important role in improving crop yield. However, due to variations in natural and field management practices, the impact of straw incorporation (NS) and biochar addition (NB) on soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and global warming potential (GWP) remains uncertain. This meta-analysis synthesizes the findings from 112 published studies, encompassing 897 samples, to assess the effects of NS and NB on crop yield, SOC, and GWP. The results reveal that Northeast China has the highest SOC stocks (40.80 Mg ha[-1]) and annual SOC sequestration (4.27 Mg ha[-1] yr[-1]) compared to other regions. Notably, the NS and NB differ in their effect sizes on improving crop yield (7.68 % and 8.23 %, respectively) and SOC (6.92 % and 30.72 %, respectively), with opposing effects on GWP (increasing by 37.69 % in NS and decreasing by 23.94 % in NB). Following organic material application, climatic conditions, crop and field type, and soil properties affected SOC content and GWP. The main factors influencing variations in crop yield, SOC, and GWP were mean annual temperature and precipitation, initial SOC content, and soil pH, accounting for 57.46 %-60.29 %, 54.75 %-58.52 %, and 61.81 %-65.11 %, respectively. Considering the need to balance food demand, soil fertility and environmental benefits, biochar emerges as a recommended strategy for advancing future agriculture goals. In summary, this study quantitatively assessed the impact of organic material on crop yield, SOC, and greenhouse gas emissions, offering a scientific foundation for optimizing these factors under diverse regional conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37858411, year = {2023}, author = {Cheng, L and Gu, K and Zhao, L and Wang, H and Ji, JS and Liu, Z and Huang, J and Chen, Y and Gao, X and Xu, Y and Wang, C and Luo, Y and Cai, W and Gong, P and Liang, W and Huang, C}, title = {Projecting future labor losses due to heat stress in China under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {68}, number = {22}, pages = {2827-2837}, pmid = {37858411}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to increase occupational heat stress, which will lead to diminished work performance and labor losses worldwide. However, sub-regional analyses remain insufficient, especially for countries with a heterogeneous spatial distribution of working populations, industries and climates. Here, we projected heat-induced labor losses in China, by considering local climate simulations, working population characteristics and developing an exposure-response function suitable for Chinese workers. We showed that the annual heat-induced work hours lost (WHL), compared to the baseline of 21.3 billion hours, will increase by 121.1% (111.2%-131.1%), 10.8% (8.3%-15.3%), and -17.8% (-15.3%--20.3%) by the end of the century under RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6, respectively. We observed an approximately linear upward trend of WHL under RCP8.5, despite the decrease in future working population. Notably, WHL will be most prominent in the southern, eastern and central regions, with Guangdong and Henan accounting for a quarter of national total losses; this is largely due to their higher temperature exposure, larger population size, and higher shares of vulnerable population in total employment. In addition, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would yield substantial gains. Compared to RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, all provinces can avoid an average of 11.8%, 33.7%, and 53.9% of annual WHL if the 1.5 °C target is achieved, which is equivalent to avoiding 0.1%, 0.6%, and 1.4% of annual GDP losses in China, respectively. This study revealed climate change will exacerbate future labor losses, and adverse impacts can be minimized by adopting stringent mitigation policies coupled with effective adaptation measures. Policymakers in each province should tailor occupation health protection measures to their circumstances.}, }
@article {pmid37857336, year = {2023}, author = {Baniassadi, A and Lipsitz, LA and Sailor, D and Pascual-Leone, A and Manor, B}, title = {Heat Waves, Climate Change, and Implications for an Aging Population.}, journal = {The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences}, volume = {78}, number = {12}, pages = {2304-2306}, doi = {10.1093/gerona/glad230}, pmid = {37857336}, issn = {1758-535X}, mesh = {*Hot Temperature ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid37855825, year = {2023}, author = {Evans, LA and Bell, JG and Samost, M and Wolford, LL and Sipe, M and Starodub, R and Belanger, B and Do, G and Donati, C and O'Brien, L and Nicholas, PK}, title = {Health Consequences of Climate Change: Continuing Education Opportunities for Health Professionals in the United States.}, journal = {Journal of continuing education in nursing}, volume = {54}, number = {12}, pages = {561-566}, doi = {10.3928/00220124-20231013-02}, pmid = {37855825}, issn = {1938-2472}, mesh = {Humans ; United States ; *Climate Change ; *Health Personnel ; Education, Continuing ; Curriculum ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a looming public health challenge. The health consequences of climate change are increasingly recognized as contributing to negative health outcomes for individuals, families, communities, and populations. The education of health professionals in academic programs and continuing education in clinical practice settings is critical in today's world. The Association of American Medical Colleges and the National League for Nursing, among other organizations, have urged academic programs to include the impact of climate change on health in health professions education and have started to integrate it into curricula. However, health professionals educated over the past several decades have received little content related to the deleterious impact of climate change on health. Therefore, continuing education programs addressing the health consequences of climate change are being developed to fill the gap in health professions education globally. This review study explicated the available continuing education opportunities for public health professionals and health care providers related to the health consequences of climate change. [J Contin Educ Nurs. 2023;54(12):561-566.].}, }
@article {pmid37855159, year = {2023}, author = {Liang, J and Wang, W and Cai, Q and Li, X and Zhu, Z and Zhai, Y and Li, X and Gao, X and Yi, Y}, title = {Prioritizing conservation efforts based on future habitat availability and accessibility under climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.14204}, pmid = {37855159}, issn = {1523-1739}, abstract = {The potential for species to shift their ranges to avoid extinction is contingent on both the future availability and accessibility of habitats with analogous climates. However, many previous studies used a single method that considered individual factors, while a few combined two factors to develop conservation strategies. Most studies that do so focus on identifying climate refugia or climate connectivity areas in fixed areas, ignoring the dynamic range shifting process of animals. Here, we combined habitat suitability and climate velocity with network analysis to quantify future habitat availability and accessibility under climate change, thereby assessing range shift potential and identifying conservation priority areas for migratory birds across the Yangtze River basin (YRB) in the 2050s under 4 climatic scenarios. Our results suggested that medium (i.e., 5-10 km/yr) and high (i.e., above 10 km/yr) climate velocity would threaten 18.65% and 8.37% of stable suitability areas. Despite low (i.e., 0-5 km/yr) climate velocity exposure, 50.15% of climate velocity-identified destinations had poorer habitat suitability than their sources. Integrating climate velocity and habitat suitability, a few but critica sites and paths were identified as priority protected areas, mainly in Sichuan and the mid-lower reaches of the YRB. Finally, we constructed a climate-informed protected priority areas network for migratory birds. Overall, we demonstrate the differences between habitat suitability and climate velocity in capturing biological responses to climate change. More importantly, we accounted for the dynamic process of species range shifts implied by climate velocity and future habitat suitability, which we then used to identify conservation priority areas. Therefore, this study can provide a novel insight into forecasting climate-driven distribution shifts and informing conservation priorities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid37855148, year = {2023}, author = {Etard, A and Newbold, T}, title = {Species-level correlates of land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity in terrestrial vertebrates.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.14208}, pmid = {37855148}, issn = {1523-1739}, abstract = {Land-use and climate change are two major pressures on terrestrial biodiversity. Species' extinction risk and responses to human pressures have been shown to relate to ecological traits and other characteristics in some clades. However, we lack large-scale comparative assessments of the associations between traits and responses to multiple human pressures, across multiple clades. Here, we investigated whether a set of ecological characteristics that are commonly measured across terrestrial vertebrates (ecological traits and geographical range area) are associated with: (1) species' responses to different land-use types; and (2) species' likely sensitivity to climate change (based on properties of their realized climatic niche). Our aim was to test whether generalisable patterns in response to these pressures arise across both pressures and across vertebrate clades, which could help to assess the global signature of human pressures on vertebrate biodiversity, and to guide conservation efforts. Among the characteristics we considered, only three were consistently associated with strong land-use responses and high climate-change sensitivity across terrestrial vertebrate classes: narrow geographical range area, narrow habitat breadth and specialisation on natural habitats. The associations of other traits with species' land-use responses and with climate-change sensitivity often depended on class and land-use type, highlighting an important degree of context dependency. In all classes, invertebrate eaters and fruit/nectar eaters tended to be negatively affected in disturbed land uses, while invertebrate- and plant/seed-eating birds were estimated to be more sensitive to climate change, raising concerns about the continuation of ecological processes sustained by these species under global changes. Our work highlights a consistently higher sensitivity for narrowly distributed species and habitat specialists under land-use and climate change, which provides support for capturing such characteristics in large-scale vulnerability assessments. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, }
@article {pmid37854296, year = {2023}, author = {Nikkel, E and Clements, DR and Anderson, D and Williams, JL}, title = {Regional habitat suitability for aquatic and terrestrial invasive plant species may expand or contract with climate change.}, journal = {Biological invasions}, volume = {25}, number = {12}, pages = {3805-3822}, pmid = {37854296}, issn = {1387-3547}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The threat of invasive species to biodiversity and ecosystem structure is exacerbated by the increasingly concerning outlook of predicted climate change and other human influences. Developing preventative management strategies for invasive plant species before they establish is crucial for effective management. To examine how climate change may impact habitat suitability, we modeled the current and future habitat suitability of two terrestrial species, Geranium lucidum and Pilosella officinarum, and two aquatic species, Butomus umbellatus and Pontederia crassipes, that are relatively new invasive plant species regionally, and are currently spreading in the Pacific Northwest (PNW, North America), an area of unique natural areas, vibrant economic activity, and increasing human population. Using North American presence records, downscaled climate variables, and human influence data, we developed an ensemble model of six algorithms to predict the potential habitat suitability under current conditions and projected climate scenarios RCP 4.5, 7.0, and 8.5 for 2050 and 2080. One terrestrial species (P. officinarum) showed declining habitat suitability in future climate scenarios (contracted distribution), while the other terrestrial species (G. lucidum) showed increased suitability over much of the region (expanded distribution overall). The two aquatic species were predicted to have only moderately increased suitability, suggesting aquatic plant species may be less impacted by climate change. Our research provides a template for regional-scale modelling of invasive species of concern, thus assisting local land managers and practitioners to inform current and future management strategies and to prioritize limited available resources for species with expanding ranges.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-023-03139-8.}, }
@article {pmid37853406, year = {2023}, author = {Heydari, A and Partovi, P and Zarezadeh, Y and Yari, A}, title = {Exploring medical students' perceptions and understanding of the health impacts of climate change: a qualitative content analysis.}, journal = {BMC medical education}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {774}, pmid = {37853406}, issn = {1472-6920}, mesh = {Humans ; *Students, Medical ; Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Curriculum ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has been identified as the greatest threat to global health in the twenty-first century, with its unfavorable health consequences being among its impacts on humans. Exploring the perspectives and understanding of healthcare professionals and service providers concerning climate change becomes imperative. The aim of this study is to investigate the perceptions and understanding of final-year medical students regarding the health impacts of climate change on individuals and the healthcare system using a qualitative content analysis.<br><br>METHODS: This study employed a qualitative content analysis approach. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with the aid of an interview guide to explore the students' awareness, understanding, and attitudes towards the impacts of climate change on public health and the healthcare system. The collected interview data were subsequently organized into codes, categories, and subcategories based on the students' perspectives and attitudes towards climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: Fifteen medical intern students were interviewed for this study, and the qualitative findings were categorized into 3 categories, 23 subcategories, and 229 codes. The study's findings revealed various health impacts of climate change, which were classified into three main categories, including environmental effects with 8 subcategories, socio-economic effects with 8 subcategories, and health effects with 7 subcategories. The study's findings revealed medical students' perceptions of various health impacts of climate change and These findings suggest that medical student understand that climate change has significant impacts on individuals' health and society, mainly through environmental degradation, increased risks, and climate-related disasters, which ultimately lead to adverse health outcomes.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The perspectives of medical students in this study indicate that climate change may not have a direct and immediate impact on the health of individuals and communities. However, it can significantly influence their health and socio-economic well-being by exacerbating or causing environmental problems, increasing the risk of weather-related events and natural disasters, ultimately leading to adverse health outcomes. While the medical students' perspectives on the health impacts of climate change are indeed broad, incorporating scientific knowledge about this topic into the medical curriculum and educating students on how to deal with patients affected by these consequences can have a significant impact on health management. This proactive approach, despite the students' already comprehensive understanding, can enhance their preparedness to address the health effects of climate change and contribute to strengthening the healthcare system's resilience in the face of climate-related challenges.}, }
@article {pmid37852971, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, C and Song, J and Shi, D and Reyna, JL and Horsey, H and Feron, S and Zhou, Y and Ouyang, Z and Li, Y and Jackson, RB}, title = {Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {6434}, pmid = {37852971}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate, technologies, and socio-economic changes will influence future building energy use in cities. However, current low-resolution regional and state-level analyses are insufficient to reliably assist city-level decision-making. Here we estimate mid-century hourly building energy consumption in 277 U.S. urban areas using a bottom-up approach. The projected future climate change results in heterogeneous changes in energy use intensity (EUI) among urban areas, particularly under higher warming scenarios, with on average 10.1-37.7% increases in the frequency of peak building electricity EUI but over 110% increases in some cities. For each 1 °C of warming, the mean city-scale space-conditioning EUI experiences an average increase/decrease of ~14%/ ~ 10% for space cooling/heating. Heterogeneous city-scale building source energy use changes are primarily driven by population and power sector changes, on average ranging from -9% to 40% with consistent south-north gradients under different scenarios. Across the scenarios considered here, the changes in city-scale building source energy use, when averaged over all urban areas, are as follows: -2.5% to -2.0% due to climate change, 7.3% to 52.2% due to population growth, and -17.1% to -8.9% due to power sector decarbonization. Our findings underscore the necessity of considering intercity heterogeneity when developing sustainable and resilient urban energy systems.}, }
@article {pmid37852894, year = {2023}, author = {Oberlin, AM and Wylie, BJ}, title = {Vector-borne disease, climate change and perinatal health.}, journal = {Seminars in perinatology}, volume = {47}, number = {8}, pages = {151841}, doi = {10.1016/j.semperi.2023.151841}, pmid = {37852894}, issn = {1558-075X}, mesh = {Animals ; Infant, Newborn ; Humans ; Climate Change ; Mosquito Vectors ; *Vector Borne Diseases ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; *Zika Virus Infection/epidemiology ; *Zika Virus ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are caused by infectious pathogens that spread from an infected human or animal reservoir to an uninfected human via a vector (mosquito, tick, rodent, others) and remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Pregnant individuals and their fetuses are especially at risk, as certain pathogens, such as Zika virus, have specific implications in pregnancy and for neonatal health. Global climate change is affecting the incidence and geographic spread of many VBDs. Thus, it is important for clinicians in the fields of obstetrics/gynecology and newborn medicine, regardless of geographic location, to familiarize themselves with a basic understanding of these conditions and how climate change is altering their distributions. In this chapter, we review the incidence, clinical presentation, implications during pregnancy and intersection with climate change for four of the most important VBDs in pregnancy: malaria, Zika, dengue and Chagas disease. Although not exhaustive of all VBDs, a more extensive table is included for reference, and our discussion provides a helpful framework for understanding other vector-borne pathogens and perinatal health.}, }
@article {pmid37852828, year = {2024}, author = {Zhang, T and Wang, W and Shen, Z and An, B}, title = {Increasing frequency and destructiveness of glacier-related slope failures under global warming.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {69}, number = {1}, pages = {30-33}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2023.09.042}, pmid = {37852828}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid37851828, year = {2023}, author = {Diamond, MB and Yee, E and Bhinge, M and Scarpino, SV}, title = {Wastewater surveillance facilitates climate change-resilient pathogen monitoring.}, journal = {Science translational medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {718}, pages = {eadi7831}, doi = {10.1126/scitranslmed.adi7831}, pmid = {37851828}, issn = {1946-6242}, mesh = {*Wastewater ; *Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Traditional disease surveillance systems are ill-equipped to handle climate change-driven shifts in pathogen dynamics. If paired with wastewater surveillance, a cost-effective and scalable approach for generating high-resolution health data, such next-generation systems can enable effective resource allocation and delivery of targeted interventions.}, }
@article {pmid37851643, year = {2023}, author = {Turner, MM and Ghayoomi, M and Duderstadt, K and Brewer, J and Kholodov, A}, title = {Climate change and seismic resilience: Key considerations for Alaska's infrastructure and built environment.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {10}, pages = {e0292320}, pmid = {37851643}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {United States ; Humans ; Alaska ; *Climate Change ; *Permafrost ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Alaska is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. Coincidentally, the state has also experienced dramatic impacts of climate change as it is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the United States. Through mechanisms such as permafrost thaw, water table fluctuation, and melting of sea ice and glaciers, climatic-driven changes to the natural and built-environment influence the seismic response of infrastructure systems. This paper discusses the challenges and needs posed by earthquake hazards and climate change to Alaska's infrastructure and built environment, drawing on the contributions of researchers and decision-makers in interviews and a workshop. It outlines policy, mitigation, and adaptation areas meriting further attention to improve the seismic resilience of Alaska's built environment from the perspectives of engineering and complementary coupled human-environmental systems.}, }
@article {pmid37851469, year = {2023}, author = {Suran, M}, title = {As Climate Change Takes a Toll on Mental Health in Africa, Experts Call for More Research and Interventions.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {330}, number = {17}, pages = {1608-1610}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2023.19182}, pmid = {37851469}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {Africa ; *Climate Change ; *Mental Health ; Public Health ; *Mental Disorders/etiology/therapy ; Biomedical Research ; }, }
@article {pmid37850526, year = {2023}, author = {Wilson, SC}, title = {Raging fires, wild storms: Is the rate of global climate change outpacing our progress in the assessment and management of chemical stressors to effectively protect humans and the environment for extreme climate conditions?.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {1409-1410}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4838}, pmid = {37850526}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Wildfires ; *Fires/prevention &amp; control ; *Disasters ; }, }
@article {pmid37848244, year = {2024}, author = {May, M and Hirsch, S and Abramson, M}, title = {Transformation of Plantation Forestry Productivity for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation.}, journal = {Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in biology}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {37848244}, issn = {1943-0264}, mesh = {*Forestry ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Carbon ; Fossil Fuels ; }, abstract = {The protection of natural forests as the major land-based biotic sink of carbon is regarded as a priority for climate action, and zero deforestation is an accepted global imperative. Sustainable intensification of plantation forestry will be essential to meet escalating, shifting, and diversifying demand for forest products if logging pressure on natural forests is to be decreased. Substitution strategies involves enhanced offtake from plantation forestry into long life-cycle products, opening up new options for medium- to long-term carbon drawdown, downstream decarbonization, and fossil fuel displacement in the construction and chemicals sectors. However, under current plantation productivity levels, it has been projected that by 2050, supply could provide as little as 35% of demand. This could be further exacerbated by climate change. To mitigate this shortfall, to avoid ensuing catastrophic logging pressure on natural forests, and to ensure that downstream decarbonization and fossil fuel substitution strategies are feasible, a dramatic step change in plantation productivity is required. This is particularly necessary in developing countries where increases in per capita demand and pressure on natural forests will be the most acute.}, }
@article {pmid37848060, year = {2023}, author = {Jantzen, CC and Visser, ME}, title = {Climate change does not equally affect temporal patterns of natural selection on reproductive timing across populations in two songbird species.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {290}, number = {2009}, pages = {20231474}, pmid = {37848060}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Songbirds ; Climate Change ; Seasons ; *Lepidoptera ; Reproduction ; Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Climate change has led to changes in the strength of directional selection on seasonal timing. Understanding the causes and consequences of these changes is crucial to predict the impact of climate change. But are observed patterns in one population generalizable to others, and can spatial variation in selection be explained by environmental variation among populations? We used long-term data (1955-2022) on blue and great tits co-occurring in four locations across the Netherlands to assess inter-population variation in temporal patterns of selection on laying date. To analyse selection, we combine reproduction and adult survival into a joined fitness measure. We found distinct spatial variation in temporal patterns of selection which overall acted towards earlier laying, and which was due to selection through reproduction rather than through survival. The underlying relationships between temperature, bird and caterpillar phenology were however the same across populations, and the spatial variation in selection patterns is thus caused by spatial variation in the temperatures and other habitat characteristics to which birds and caterpillars respond. This underlines that climate change is not necessarily equally affecting populations, but that we can understand this spatial variation, which enables us to predict climate change effects on selection for other populations.}, }
@article {pmid37846636, year = {2024}, author = {Byg, B and Shah, AD}, title = {Heating up: climate change and the threat to human health.}, journal = {Current opinion in nephrology and hypertension}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {78-82}, pmid = {37846636}, issn = {1473-6543}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Heating ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review discusses the urgency of addressing human-caused climate change and its impacts on health and the environment.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: The latest evidence shows that current climate changes are primarily attributable to greenhouse gas emissions from human industrial activity. Exceeding 1.5&#xb0;C of warming above preindustrial levels is projected to increase extreme weather events, increase rates of heat-related morbidity and mortality and vector-borne disease, exacerbate food and water insecurity, harm biodiversity and agriculture, displace communities, and disproportionately impact disadvantaged groups.<br><br>SUMMARY: Urgent action is required to curb emissions, enact adaptation strategies, and promote climate justice. The healthcare sector must reduce its ecological footprint and prepare systems and workers to address climate change's health effects. Further research should support climate solutions while promoting health equity and environmental justice.}, }
@article {pmid37846595, year = {2023}, author = {Moura, MR and Oliveira, GA and Paglia, AP and Pires, MM and Santos, BA}, title = {Climate change should drive mammal defaunation in tropical dry forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {24}, pages = {6931-6944}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16979}, pmid = {37846595}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {307260/2022-4//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 312178/2019-0//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 313059/2022-5//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; //Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; //Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais/ ; 2019/25478-7//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; 2021/11840-6//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; 2022/12231-6//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; //Re:wild and Dimensions Sciences Bridges/ ; PVA-13357-2020//Universidade Federal da Para&#xed;ba/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Mammals/physiology ; Forests ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Human-induced climate change has intensified negative impacts on socioeconomic factors, the environment, and biodiversity, including changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in global average temperatures. Drylands are particularly at risk, with projections suggesting they will become hotter, drier, and less suitable for a significant portion of their species, potentially leading to mammal defaunation. We use ecological niche modelling and community ecology biodiversity metrics to examine potential geographical range shifts of non-volant mammal species in the largest Neotropical dryland, the Caatinga, and evaluate impacts of climate change on mammal assemblages. According to projections, 85% of the mammal species will lose suitable habitats, with one quarter of species projected to completely lose suitable habitats by 2060. This will result in a decrease in species richness for more than 90% of assemblages and an increase in compositional similarity to nearby assemblages (i.e., reduction in spatial beta diversity) for 70% of the assemblages. Small-sized mammals will be the most impacted and lose most of their suitable habitats, especially in highlands. The scenario is even worse in the eastern half of Caatinga where habitat destruction already prevails, compounding the threats faced by species there. While species-specific responses can vary with respect to dispersal, behavior, and energy requirements, our findings indicate that climate change can drive mammal assemblages to biotic homogenization and species loss, with drastic changes in assemblage trophic structure. For successful long-term socioenvironmental policy and conservation planning, it is critical that findings from biodiversity forecasts are considered.}, }
@article {pmid37846450, year = {2023}, author = {Giannico, OV and Baldacci, S and Bisceglia, L and Minerba, S and Conversano, M and Mincuzzi, A}, title = {[The mortality cost of carbon dioxide emissions from a steel plant in Southern Italy: a climate change health impact assessment].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {47}, number = {4-5}, pages = {273-280}, doi = {10.19191/EP23.4-5.A616.067}, pmid = {37846450}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Humans ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Steel ; Health Impact Assessment ; Prospective Studies ; Italy ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: to quantify the temperature-related global health impacts of the Taranto steel plant CO2e emissions.<br><br>DESIGN: using the risk functions available in the literature, a prospective global health impact assessment of the marginal CO2e emissions declared by the steel plant for 2020 was conducted.<br><br>SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: world population in the period 2020-2100.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: deaths in the period 2020-2100 attributable to the marginal CO2e emitted by the Taranto steel plant in 2020.<br><br>RESULTS: considering the central estimates in the baseline emission scenario (4.1&#xb0;C warming by 2100), the Taranto steel plant 2020 CO2e emissions will cause 1,876 deaths worldwide between 2020 and 2100. The largest part will be attributable to steelmaking processes, accounting for 1,093 deaths. The same emissions will cause 5.56 &#xd7; 10-4 deaths worldwide between 2020 and 2100 per tonne of steel produced in 2020, i.e. one death for every 1,799 tonnes of steel. If the 2020 CO2e emissions of the steel plant had been reduced by 25%, 50% or 75%, the deaths avoided in the world in the period 2020-2100 would have been 469, 938 and 1,407 respectively.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: estimates predict a probably significant mortality impact worldwide by the end of the century associated with the greenhouse gases emissions of the Taranto steel plant. Just reducing emissions by 50% in a single year could maybe avoid over 900 deaths worldwide by the end of the century. This confirms the importance of implementing incisive policies to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in all sectors.}, }
@article {pmid37846443, year = {2023}, author = {Michelozzi, P}, title = {[Climate change and health emergency: a summary of evidence and perspectives].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {47}, number = {4-5}, pages = {227-233}, doi = {10.19191/EP23.4-5.060}, pmid = {37846443}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Italy/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid37845546, year = {2023}, author = {Agathokleous, E and Frei, M and Knopf, OM and Muller, O and Xu, Y and Nguyen, TH and Gaiser, T and Liu, X and Liu, B and Saitanis, CJ and Shang, B and Alam, MS and Feng, Y and Ewert, F and Feng, Z}, title = {Adapting crop production to climate change and air pollution at different scales.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {854-865}, pmid = {37845546}, issn = {2662-1355}, support = {42130714, 42207123, 42107270//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 4210070867//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics ; Crop Production ; *Air Pollution ; }, abstract = {Air pollution and climate change are tightly interconnected and jointly affect field crop production and agroecosystem health. Although our understanding of the individual and combined impacts of air pollution and climate change factors is improving, the adaptation of crop production to concurrent air pollution and climate change remains challenging to resolve. Here we evaluate recent advances in the adaptation of crop production to climate change and air pollution at the plant, field and ecosystem scales. The main approaches at the plant level include the integration of genetic variation, molecular breeding and phenotyping. Field-level techniques include optimizing cultivation practices, promoting mixed cropping and diversification, and applying technologies such as antiozonants, nanotechnology and robot-assisted farming. Plant- and field-level techniques would be further facilitated by enhancing soil resilience, incorporating precision agriculture and modifying the hydrology and microclimate of agricultural landscapes at the ecosystem level. Strategies and opportunities for crop production under climate change and air pollution are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid37843303, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, W and Chen, K and Zhang, L and Zhang, X and Zhu, B and Lv, N and Mi, K}, title = {The impact of global warming on the signature virulence gene, thermolabile hemolysin, of Vibrio parahaemolyticus.}, journal = {Microbiology spectrum}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {e0150223}, pmid = {37843303}, issn = {2165-0497}, support = {2022YFC2303200//MOST | National Key Research and Development Program of China (NKPs)/ ; 31970136//MOST | National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)/ ; 32170181//MOST | National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)/ ; Extension-2019- K3006//International Joint Research Project of the Institute of Medical Science, University of Tokyo/ ; CASPMI202201//Open Project Program of CAS Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbiology and Immunology/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Vibrio parahaemolyticus/genetics ; Virulence/genetics ; Hemolysin Proteins/genetics ; Global Warming ; *Vibrio Infections/microbiology ; }, abstract = {In this study, Vibrio parahaemolyticus strains were collected from a large number of aquatic products globally and found that temperature has an impact on the virulence of these bacteria. As global temperatures rise, mutations in a gene marker called thermolabile hemolysin (tlh) also increase. This suggests that environmental isolates adapt to the warming environment and become more pathogenic. The findings can help in developing tools to analyze and monitor these bacteria as well as assess any link between climate change and vibrio-associated diseases, which could be used for forecasting outbreaks associated with them.}, }
@article {pmid37842913, year = {2023}, author = {Heming, NM and Mota, FMM and Talora, DC and Martins, WP}, title = {Impacts of climate change and habitat loss on the distribution of the endangered crested capuchin monkey (Sapajus robustus).}, journal = {American journal of primatology}, volume = {85}, number = {12}, pages = {e23562}, doi = {10.1002/ajp.23562}, pmid = {37842913}, issn = {1098-2345}, mesh = {Animals ; *Cebus ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Cebinae ; Endangered Species ; }, abstract = {The crested capuchin monkey (Sapajus robustus) is endemic to the Atlantic Forest and its transition areas within Cerrado in Brazil. The species is currently threatened by habitat loss and has been classified as endangered by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species since 2015. We used ecological niche models built with MaxEnt to predict the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of this species. The models were projected onto the reference climate, considering six climate scenarios (three Global Climate Models and two Representative Concentration Pathways) from IPCC for 2050 and 2070. We showed that while the amount of suitable area is expected to change little across the species' range in most evaluated climate scenarios, climatic conditions may significantly deteriorate by 2070 in the pessimistic scenario, especially in currently warmer and dryer areas to the west. As seen on other capuchin monkeys, the potential use of tools by crested capuchins may increase the chances of the species adaptation to novel harsher environmental conditions. The major negative impacts across the species range also include habitat loss and fragmentation so that the conservation of the species relies on the protection of the forest remnants in the center of its distribution, which can harbor populations of the species in current and future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid37842719, year = {2023}, author = {Koessler, AK and Heinz, N and Engel, S}, title = {Perspective-taking with affected others to promote climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1225165}, pmid = {37842719}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Prior evidence suggests that perspective-taking may promote pro-environmental behavior, at least for low-cost behaviors or local environmental problems. Climate change, however, requires costly mitigation efforts and is a global problem. Thus, in this study, we examine whether perspective-taking in the context of climate change is effective in promoting mitigation behaviors, including actual and/or costly behaviors, the mechanisms through which perspective-taking works, and if the distance to the person adversely affected by climate change matters for the effect. We conducted an online experiment with a non-student sample from Germany (n = 557), utilizing a 2 × 2 factorial design, to investigate the impact of perspective-taking and distance on three outcome measures: a climate donation, signing a petition, and approval of mitigation policies. We find that perspective-taking does not promote these mitigation behaviors, yet it raises the degree perspective-takers value and - for close others - feel connected with the affected person. Exploratory analysis shows that dispositional perspective-taking and empathic concern are correlated with mitigation behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid37842042, year = {2023}, author = {Possenti, L and Reichart, GJ and de Nooijer, L and Lam, FP and de Jong, C and Colin, M and Binnerts, B and Boot, A and von der Heydt, A}, title = {Predicting the contribution of climate change on North Atlantic underwater sound propagation.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e16208}, pmid = {37842042}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {*Seawater/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Since the industrial revolution, oceans have become substantially noisier. The noise increase is mainly caused by increased shipping, resource exploration, and infrastructure development affecting marine life at multiple levels, including behavior and physiology. Together with increasing anthropogenic noise, climate change is altering the thermal structure of the oceans, which in turn might affect noise propagation. During this century, we are witnessing an increase in seawater temperature and a decrease in ocean pH. Ocean acidification will decrease sound absorption at low frequencies (<10 kHz), enhancing long-range sound propagation. At the same time, temperature changes can modify the sound speed profile, leading to the creation or disappearance of sound ducts in which sound can propagate over large distances. The worldwide effect of climate change was explored for the winter and summer seasons using the (2018 to 2022) and (2094 to 2098, projected) atmospheric and seawater temperature, salinity, pH and wind speed as input. Using numerical modelling, we here explore the impact of climate change on underwater sound propagation. The future climate variables were taken from a Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) simulations forced under the concentration-driven SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The sound modeling results show, for future climate change scenarios, a global increase of sound speed at different depths (5, 125, 300, and 640 m) except for the North Atlantic Ocean and the Norwegian Sea, where in the upper 125 m sound speed will decrease by as much as 40 m s[-1]. This decrease in sound speed results in a new sub-surface duct in the upper 200 m of the water column allowing ship noise to propagate over large distances (>500 km). In the case of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, this sub-surface duct will only be present during winter, leading to similar total mean square pressure level (SPLtot) values in the summer for both (2018 to 2022) and (2094 to 2098). We observed a strong and similar correlation for the two climate change scenarios, with an increase of the top 200 m SPLtot and a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leading to an increase of SPLtot at the end of the century by 7 dB.}, }
@article {pmid37841613, year = {2023}, author = {Huang, Y and Zhang, G and Fu, W and Zhang, Y and Zhao, Z and Li, Z and Qin, Y}, title = {Impacts of climate change on climatically suitable regions of two invasive Erigeron weeds in China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1238656}, pmid = {37841613}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Erigeron philadelphicus and Erigeron annuus are two ecologically destructive invasive plants from the Asteraceae family. Predicting the potential distribution pattern of two invasive alien Erigeron weeds can provide a scientific basis for prevent the further spread of these two weeds in China under climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Based on historical occurrence datasets and environmental variables, we optimized a MaxEnt model to predict the potential suitable habitats of E. philadelphicus and E. annuus. We also analyzed the shifts of distribution centroids and patterns under climate change scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: The key variables that affect the potential geographical distribution of E. annuus and E. philadelphicus, respectively, are temperature seasonality and precipitation of the driest month. Moreover, topsoil sodicity and topsoil salinity also influence the distribution of E. philadelphicus. Under climate change, the overall suitable habitats for both invasive alien Erigeron weeds are expected to expand. The potential geographical distribution of E. annuus exhibited the highest expansion under the SSP245 climate scenario (medium forcing scenarios), whereas E. philadelphicus had the highest expansion under the SSP126 climate scenario (lower forcing scenarios) globally. The future centroid of E. annuus is projected to shift to higher latitudes specifically from Hubei to Hebei, whereas E. philadelphicus remains concentrated primarily in Hubei Province. The overlapping suitable areas of the two invasive alien Erigeron plants mainly occur in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, and Chongqing, within China.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate change will enable E. annuus to expand into northeastern region and invade Yunnan Province whereas E. philadelphicus was historically the only suitable species. E. annuus demonstrates a greater potential for invasion and expansion under climate change, as it exhibits higher environmental tolerance. The predictive results obtained in this study can serve as a valuable reference for early warning systems and management strategies aimed at controlling the spread of these two invasive plants.}, }
@article {pmid37841607, year = {2023}, author = {Shukla, P and Kumar, A and Kumar, R}, title = {Editorial: Climate change and stress mitigation strategy in plants.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1291905}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2023.1291905}, pmid = {37841607}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid37841578, year = {2023}, author = {Ayalon, L and Roy, S}, title = {The Perceived Contribution of Older People to Climate Change Impact, Mitigation, and Adaptation: Measurement Development and Validation.}, journal = {Innovation in aging}, volume = {7}, number = {8}, pages = {igad095}, pmid = {37841578}, issn = {2399-5300}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To improve the understanding of ageism toward older people in the context of climate change, the present study developed and validated a new measure that examines the perceived negative and positive contributions of older people to climate change impact, mitigation, and adaptation efforts.<br><br>RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Four studies (N&#x2005;=&#x2005;774) were conducted to develop a new measure and evaluate its reliability and validity, relying on exploratory factor analysis, reliability analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, multiple-group analysis (Australia and India), discriminative validity, and convergent and divergent validity.<br><br>RESULTS: A 2-subscale measure covering older people's perceived negative contribution to climate change effects (5 items) and perceived positive contribution to adaptation and mitigation measures (3 items; eg, negative, and positive ageism in the context of climate change) was supported by the data. The measure has demonstrated adequate validity and reliability.<br><br>DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: The measure highlights a relatively neglected area in current climate change discourse and may assist in identifying ways to improve intergenerational solidarity as part of climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts toward building a world for all ages under a healthy climate, which allows for healthy aging and healthy longevity. These objectives are in line with the current mission posed by the UN Decade of Healthy Ageing.}, }
@article {pmid37840556, year = {2023}, author = {Ansari, D and Schönenberg, R and Abud, M and Becerra, L and Brahim, W and Castiblanco, J and de la Vega-Leinert, AC and Dudley, N and Dunlop, M and Figueroa, C and Guevara, O and Hauser, P and Hobbie, H and Hossain, MAR and Hugé, J and Janssens de Bisthoven, L and Keunen, H and Munera-Roldan, C and Petzold, J and Rochette, AJ and Schmidt, M and Schumann, C and Sengupta, S and Stoll-Kleemann, S and van Kerkhoff, L and Vanhove, MPM and Wyborn, C}, title = {Communicating climate change and biodiversity loss with local populations: exploring communicative utopias in eight transdisciplinary case studies.}, journal = {UCL open. Environment}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {e064}, pmid = {37840556}, issn = {2632-0886}, abstract = {Climate change and biodiversity loss trigger policies targeting and impacting local communities worldwide. However, research and policy implementation often fail to sufficiently consider community responses and to involve them. We present the results of a collective self-assessment exercise for eight case studies of communications with regard to climate change or biodiversity loss between project teams and local communities. We develop eight indicators of good stakeholder communication, reflecting the scope of Verran's (2002) concept of postcolonial moments as a communicative utopia. We demonstrate that applying our indicators can enhance communication and enable community responses. However, we discover a divergence between timing, complexity and (introspective) effort. Three cases qualify for postcolonial moments, but scrutinising power relations and genuine knowledge co-production remain rare. While we verify the potency of various instruments for deconstructing science, their sophistication cannot substitute trust building and epistemic/transdisciplinary awareness. Lastly, we consider that reforming inadequate funding policies helps improving the work in and with local communities.}, }
@article {pmid37840058, year = {2023}, author = {Khokhar, A and Shahbaz, M and Maqsood, MF and Zulfiqar, U and Naz, N and Iqbal, UZ and Sara, M and Aqeel, M and Khalid, N and Noman, A and Zulfiqar, F and Al Syaad, KM and AlShaqhaa, MA}, title = {Correction to: Genetic modification strategies for enhancing plant resilience to abiotic stresses in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Functional &amp; integrative genomics}, volume = {23}, number = {4}, pages = {319}, doi = {10.1007/s10142-023-01250-6}, pmid = {37840058}, issn = {1438-7948}, }
@article {pmid37839975, year = {2023}, author = {Spiardi, R and Goldfarb, DS and Tasian, GE}, title = {Role of Climate Change in Urologic Health: Kidney Stone Disease.}, journal = {European urology focus}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {866-868}, doi = {10.1016/j.euf.2023.10.001}, pmid = {37839975}, issn = {2405-4569}, mesh = {Male ; Humans ; Female ; *Climate Change ; *Kidney Calculi/epidemiology/etiology/diagnosis ; Hot Temperature ; Incidence ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; }, abstract = {Kidney stones are rising in incidence and prevalence worldwide. Given the temperature dependence of kidney stone presentations, climate change is projected to further increase the burden of disease for individuals and society. PATIENT SUMMARY: This mini-review reports current knowledge on climate change in relation to kidney stone disease. Kidney stones are more common in patients living in parts of the world that are hotter and more humid. Kidney stone problems are also more common after periods of high heat, which have a greater impact on men than on women. As temperatures rise with climate change, it is likely that the occurrence of kidney stones and the costs associated with their diagnosis and treatment will increase as well.}, }
@article {pmid37839904, year = {2023}, author = {Weaver, EB and Gad, L and Zota, AR}, title = {Climate change as a threat multiplier to environmental reproductive justice.}, journal = {Seminars in perinatology}, volume = {47}, number = {8}, pages = {151843}, doi = {10.1016/j.semperi.2023.151843}, pmid = {37839904}, issn = {1558-075X}, support = {P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Female ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Social Justice ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Racial Groups ; }, abstract = {Legacies of racial capitalism and colonialism drive present day racial disparities in perinatal health outcomes. Climate change amplifies existing social inequalities associated with environmental exposures and reproductive health, of which BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, and people of color) communities bear a disproportionate burden. Through case studies, this article summarizes three examples of climate justice issues with reproductive healthcare outcomes: traffic related air pollution exposure, chemical exposures in personal care products and plastics, and natural disaster frequency. We advocate for incorporation of climate justice and environmental health impact into medical school curriculum, increased prenatal screening for environmental toxins, and physician engagement with local environmental issues.}, }
@article {pmid37839903, year = {2023}, author = {Suter, MA and Aagaard, KM}, title = {Natural disasters resulting from climate change: The impact of hurricanes and flooding on perinatal outcomes.}, journal = {Seminars in perinatology}, volume = {47}, number = {8}, pages = {151840}, doi = {10.1016/j.semperi.2023.151840}, pmid = {37839903}, issn = {1558-075X}, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Female ; Child ; Humans ; *Disasters ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Climate Change ; Causality ; Environmental Exposure ; }, abstract = {Although the earth's climate has been continuously changing over billions of years, human influence has accelerated that rate of change. While high latitudes suffer the greatest increase in incremental temperature, moderate latitudes are highly vulnerable due to their temperate/tropical rain storms and hurricanes that bring about extreme flooding events. We and others have shown that there is a link between the occurrence and severity of these climate events and risk of adverse perinatal outcomes. In this review, we will discuss the data and consider interacting near and intermediate sequelae of worsening natural disasters-including food scarcity, disrupted or compromised built environments and infrastructure, and loss of communities with human migration. While certainly tackling these and other proximal mediators of adverse perinatal outcomes will benefit maternal and child health, a failure to meaningfully address the root causes of climate change and resultant environmental chemical exposures will be of little long-term benefit.}, }
@article {pmid37838779, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Snowbanks are set to get whiter - offsetting climate change's effects.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {622}, number = {7983}, pages = {435}, pmid = {37838779}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *White People ; }, }
@article {pmid37838045, year = {2024}, author = {Picornell, A and Maya-Manzano, JM and Fernández-Ramos, M and Hidalgo-Barquero, JJ and Pecero-Casimiro, R and Ruiz-Mata, R and de Gálvez-Montañez, E and Del Mar Trigo, M and Recio, M and Fernández-Rodríguez, S}, title = {Effects of climate change on Platanus flowering in Western Mediterranean cities: Current trends and future projections.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {906}, number = {}, pages = {167800}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167800}, pmid = {37838045}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Allergens ; Pollen ; Reproduction ; Temperature ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Ornamental trees can reduce some of the negative impacts of urbanization on citizens but some species, such as Platanus spp., produce pollen with high allergenic potential. This can exacerbate the symptomatology in allergic patients, being a public health problem. Therefore, it would be relevant to determine the environmental conditions regulating the flowering onset of the Platanus species. The aims of this study were to use aerobiological records for modelling the thermal requirements of Platanus flowering and to make future projections based on the effects that climate change could have on it under several possible future scenarios. This study was conducted in Badajoz and Malaga, two Western Mediterranean cities with different climate conditions. In the first step, several main pollen season definitions were applied to the aerobiological data and their onset dates were compared with in situ phenological observations. The main pollen season definition that best fitted the Platanus flowering onset was based on the 4th derivative of a logistic function. This definition was used as a proxy to model the thermal requirements of the Platanus flowering onset by applying the PhenoFlex statistical framework. The errors obtained by this model during the external validation were 3.2 days on average, so it was fed with future temperature estimations to determine possible future trends. According to the different models, the flowering onset of Platanus in Badajoz will show heterogeneous responses in the short and medium term due to different balances in the chilling-forcing compensation, while it will clearly delay in Malaga due to a significant delay in the chilling requirement fulfilment. This may increase the chances of cross-reactivity episodes with other pollen types in the future, increasing its impact on public health.}, }
@article {pmid37837912, year = {2023}, author = {Sun, GQ and Li, L and Li, J and Liu, C and Wu, YP and Gao, S and Wang, Z and Feng, GL}, title = {Global perspectives linking climate change with vegetation pattern: Reply to comments on "Impacts of climate change on vegetation pattern: Mathematical modeling and data analysis".}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {47}, number = {}, pages = {119-121}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2023.08.021}, pmid = {37837912}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Ecosystem ; Data Analysis ; China ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid37837281, year = {2023}, author = {Wan, L and Liu, G and Cheng, H and Yang, S and Shen, Y and Su, X}, title = {Global warming changes biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry of different components in terrestrial ecosystems.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {24}, pages = {7102-7116}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16986}, pmid = {37837281}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2019QZKK0402//the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)/ ; XDA28020402//the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; Biomass ; *Global Warming ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Plants ; Soil ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Global warming has significantly affected terrestrial ecosystems. Biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry of plants and soil is crucial for enhancing plant productivity, improving human nutrition, and regulating biogeochemical cycles. However, the effect of warming on the biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry of different components (plant, leaf, stem, root, litter, soil, and microbial biomass) in various terrestrial ecosystems remains uncertain. We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis to investigate the global patterns of biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry responses to warming, as well as interaction relationships based on 1399 paired observations from 105 warming studies. Results indicated that warming had a significant impact on various aspects of plant growth, including an increase in plant biomass (+16.55%), plant C:N ratio (+4.15%), leaf biomass (+16.78%), stem biomass (+23.65%), root biomass (+22.00%), litter C:N ratio (+9.54%) and soil C:N ratio (+5.64%). However, it also decreased stem C:P ratio (-23.34%), root C:P ratio (-12.88%), soil N:P ratio (-14.43%) and soil C:P ratio (-16.33%). The magnitude of warming was the primary drivers of changes of biomass and C:N:P stoichiometry. By establishing the general response curves of changes in biomass and C:N:P ratios with increasing temperature, we demonstrated that warming effect on plant, root, and litter biomass shifted from negative to positive, whereas that on leaf and stem biomass changed from positive to negative as temperature increased. Additionally, the effect of warming on root C:N ratio, root biomass, and microbial biomass N:P ratios shifted from positive to negative, whereas the effects on plant N:P, leaf N:P, leaf C:P, root N:P ratios, and microbial biomass C:N ratio changed from negative to positive with increasing temperature. Our research can help assess plant productivity and optimize ecosystem stoichiometry precisely in the context of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid37836250, year = {2023}, author = {Yan, Y and Zhou, J and Feng, W and Li, X and Xin, Z and Xie, J and Xi, J and Cheng, Y}, title = {Study of Changes in the Ulan Buh Desert under the Dual Impacts of Desert Farmland Development and Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {37836250}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {U2243202//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2019YFE0116500//Project of Intergovernmental International Cooperation in Science and Technology Innovation/ ; }, abstract = {Desert farmland provides food for desert areas, but water is the main limiting factor of this region, thus desert farmland has an extremely fragile ecological environment. This study investigated the temporal and spatial variations of vegetation NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) in the Ulan Buh Desert, China, from 1990 to 2022, using long-term Landsat satellite data obtained from the Google Earth Engine platform and local statistical data. The results showed that from 1990 to 2022, the NDVI exhibited relatively small fluctuations and a steady increase. Furthermore, the study analyzed the impact of climate factors, namely precipitation and temperature, on NDVI, and collected the groundwater lever changes under irrigation and farmland development. The results demonstrated a positive correlation between NDVI and both precipitation and temperature from 1990 to 2006. The study area experienced an overall trend of increasing humidity. Specifically, from 1990 to 2006, significant positive correlations with precipitation and temperature were observed in 4.4% and 5.5% of the region, respectively. From 2007 to 2022, significant positive correlations were observed in 5.4% and 72.8% of the region for precipitation and temperature, respectively. These findings suggest that temperature has become increasingly influential on vegetation NDVI, while the impact of precipitation remains relatively stable. Moreover, the study assessed the impact of human activities on vegetation NDVI. The results revealed that from 1990 to 2006, human activities contributed to 43.1% of the promotion of local vegetation NDVI, which increased to 90.9% from 2007 to 2022. This study provides valuable insights into the dynamics of vegetation in the Ulan Buh Desert and its response to climatic changes and human activities. The findings highlight the significance of climate conditions and human interventions in shaping the vegetation dynamics in the region, offering essential information for ecological restoration and conservation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid37836217, year = {2023}, author = {Onyeneke, RU and Agyarko, FF and Onyeneke, CJ and Osuji, EE and Ibeneme, PA and Esfahani, IJ}, title = {How Does Climate Change Affect Tomato and Okra Production? Evidence from Nigeria.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {37836217}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {This study examined the impacts of climate change on okra and tomato yields. Fertilizer consumption and credit to the crop sector were considered as covariates in the analysis. Time-series data, spanning a period of 40 years, were obtained from various sources. An autoregressive distributed lag model was applied to analyze short- and long-term impacts of climate change and agricultural inputs on okra and tomato yields. Not all variables were stationary at levels (order zero), but they were all significant at first difference, indicating the presence of cointegration. The Bound's test F-ratio was statistically significant and implied the presence of long- and short-term relationships among the variables studied. The mean temperatures had negative impacts on okra and tomato yields in both the short and long terms. Credit guaranteed to the crop sector had positive short- and long-term impacts on tomato yield; fertilizer consumption had a negative long-term impact on okra yield. Our study concludes that climate change, particularly rising temperature, impacts herbaceous fruit crop production in Nigeria. Therefore, we recommend that breeding and disseminating climate-smart tomato and okra varieties will help fruit crop farmers respond to rising temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid37835709, year = {2023}, author = {Napolitano, F and De Rosa, G and Chay-Canul, A and Álvarez-Macías, A and Pereira, AMF and Bragaglio, A and Mora-Medina, P and Rodríguez-González, D and García-Herrera, R and Hernández-Ávalos, I and Domínguez-Oliva, A and Pacelli, C and Sabia, E and Casas-Alvarado, A and Reyes-Sotelo, B and Braghieri, A}, title = {The Challenge of Global Warming in Water Buffalo Farming: Physiological and Behavioral Aspects and Strategies to Face Heat Stress.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {37835709}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Water buffaloes have morphological and behavioral characteristics for efficient thermoregulation. However, their health, welfare, and productive performance can be affected by GW. The objective of this review was to analyze the adverse effects of GW on the productive behavior and health of water buffaloes. The physiological, morphological, and behavioral characteristics of the species were discussed to understand the impact of climate change and extreme meteorological events on buffaloes' thermoregulation. In addition, management strategies in buffalo farms, as well as the use of infrared thermography as a method to recognize heat stress in water buffaloes, were addressed. We concluded that heat stress causes a change in energy mobilization to restore animal homeostasis. Preventing hyperthermia limits the physiological, endocrine, and behavioral changes so that they return to thermoneutrality. The use of fans, sprinklers, foggers, and natural sources of water are appropriate additions to current buffalo facilities, and infrared thermography could be used to monitor the thermal states of water buffaloes.}, }
@article {pmid37835365, year = {2023}, author = {Benítez-Cabello, A and Delgado, AM and Quintas, C}, title = {Main Challenges Expected from the Impact of Climate Change on Microbial Biodiversity of Table Olives: Current Status and Trends.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {37835365}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {RTI2018-100883-B-I00, MCIU/AEI/FEDER, UE//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global emergency that is affecting agriculture in Mediterranean countries, notably the production and the characteristics of the final products. This is the case of olive cultivars, a source of olive oil and table olives. Table olives are the most important fermented vegetables in the Mediterranean area, whose world production exceeds 3 million tons/year. Lactic acid bacteria and yeast are the main microorganisms responsible for the fermentation of this product. The microbial diversity and population dynamics during the fermentation process are influenced by several factors, such as the content of sugars and phenols, all of which together influence the quality and safety of the table olives. The composition of fruits is in turn influenced by environmental conditions, such as rainfall, temperature, radiation, and the concentration of minerals in the soil, among others. In this review, we discuss the effect of climate change on the microbial diversity of table olives, with special emphasis on Spanish and Portuguese cultivars. The alterations expected to occur in climate change scenario(s) include changes in the microbial populations, their succession, diversity, and growth kinetics, which may impact the safety and quality of the table olives. Mitigation and adaptation measures are proposed to safeguard the authenticity and sensorial features of this valuable fermented food while ensuring food safety requirements.}, }
@article {pmid37831713, year = {2023}, author = {Redvers, N and Aubrey, P and Celidwen, Y and Hill, K}, title = {Indigenous Peoples: Traditional knowledges, climate change, and health.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {3}, number = {10}, pages = {e0002474}, pmid = {37831713}, issn = {2767-3375}, abstract = {Indigenous Peoples around the globe make up approximately six percent of the global population, yet they sustainably care for around eighty percent of the world's remaining biodiversity. Despite continued political, economic, and racial marginalization, as well as some of the worst health inequities on the planet, Indigenous Peoples have worked hard to maintain their cultures and languages against all odds. Indigenous Peoples' close connections to land, water, and ecosystems, however, have placed them at increasing vulnerability from the effects of climate change. With this, the health risks from climate change have unique considerations within Indigenous Nations for both mitigation and adaptation responses that are largely unappreciated. This Indigenous narrative review will synthesis the current climate and health landscape of Indigenous Peoples at a global, high-level scale, including relevant international mechanisms and considerations for Indigenous Peoples' health. This Indigenous narrative review will also explore and reflect on the strengths of Indigenous traditional knowledges as it pertains to climate change and health.}, }
@article {pmid37829842, year = {2022}, author = {Iyer, G and Ou, Y and Edmonds, J and Fawcett, AA and Hultman, N and McFarland, J and Fuhrman, J and Waldhoff, S and McJeon, H}, title = {Ratcheting of climate pledges needed to limit peak global warming.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {1129-1135}, pmid = {37829842}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {The new and updated emission reduction pledges submitted by countries ahead of COP26 represent a meaningful strengthening of global ambition compared to the 2015 Paris pledges[1,2]. Yet, limiting global warming below 1.5°C this century will require countries to ratchet ambition for 2030 and beyond[2-6]. We explore a suite of emissions pathways in which countries ratchet and achieve ambition through a combination of increasing near-term ambition through 2030, accelerating post-2030 decarbonization, and advancing the dates for national net-zero pledges. We show that ratcheting near-term ambition through 2030 will be crucial to limiting peak temperature changes. Delaying ratcheting ambition to beyond 2030 could still deliver end-of-century temperature change of less than 1.5°C, but that would result in higher temperature overshoot over many decades with the potential for adverse consequences. Ratcheting near-term ambition would also deliver benefits from enhanced non-CO2 mitigation and facilitate faster transitions to net-zero emissions systems in major economies.}, }
@article {pmid37829676, year = {2023}, author = {Bozkurt, S and Bozkurt, S}, title = {Evaluation of Potential Effects of Increased Outdoor Temperatures Due to Global Warming on Cerebral Blood Flow Rate and Respiratory Function in Chronic Obstructive Disease and Anemia.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {7}, number = {10}, pages = {2300120}, pmid = {37829676}, issn = {2056-6646}, abstract = {Global warming due to increased outdoor carbon dioxide (CO2) levels may cause several health problems such as headaches, cognitive impairment, or kidney dysfunction. It is predicted that further increases in CO2 levels will increase the morbidity and mortality of patients affected by a variety of diseases. For instance, patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) may suffer cognitive impairments or intracranial bleeding due to an increased cerebral blood flow rate. Predicting the harmful effects of global warming on human health will help to take measures for potential problems. Therefore, the quantification of physiological parameters is an essential step to investigate the effects of global warming on human health. In this study, the effects of increased outdoor temperatures due to climate change on cerebral blood flow rate and respiratory function in healthy subjects and COPD patients with anemia and respiratory acidosis are evaluated utilizing numerical simulations. The numerical model simulates cardiac function and blood circulation in systemic, pulmonary and cerebral circulations, cerebral autoregulatory functions, respiratory function, alveolar gas exchange, oxygen (O2) and CO2 contents, and hemoglobin levels in the blood. The simulation results show that although the cardiovascular function is not significantly altered, the respiratory function and cerebral blood flow rates are altered remarkably.}, }
@article {pmid37829515, year = {2023}, author = {Iyer, G and Cui, R and Edmonds, J and Fawcett, A and Hultman, N and McJeon, H and Ou, Y}, title = {Taking stock of nationally determined contributions: Continued ratcheting of ambition is critical to limit global warming to 1.5°C.}, journal = {One earth (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {1089-1092}, pmid = {37829515}, issn = {2590-3322}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {As countries take stock of progress made in accomplishing their climate goals ahead of COP28 this year, it is increasingly apparent that countries must ratchet ambition in policy areas such as non-CO2 gases and carbon dioxide removal, while halting deforestation to lead the globe on a path consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.}, }
@article {pmid37829194, year = {2022}, author = {Ou, Y and Iyer, G and Fawcett, A and Hultman, N and McJeon, H and Ragnauth, S and Smith, SJ and Edmonds, J}, title = {Role of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in limiting global warming.}, journal = {One earth (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {5}, number = {12}, pages = {1312-1315}, pmid = {37829194}, issn = {2590-3322}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Current climate pledges are insufficient to achieve the aspirational goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Here we discuss the critical role that non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions might play in global climate change stabilization, and challenges and opportunities to pivot research and policy focus towards accelerated reductions of non-CO2 gases.}, }
@article {pmid37828108, year = {2023}, author = {ElShahed, SM and Mostafa, ZK and Radwan, MH and Hosni, EM}, title = {Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {17314}, pmid = {37828108}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Spodoptera/physiology ; Egypt ; *Climate Change ; China ; Africa ; }, abstract = {The Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis is a highly invasive insect pest that causes extensive damage to many of the primary food crops. Considering the recent challenges facing global food production including climate change, knowledge about the invasive potential of this pest is essential. In this study, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current global spatial distribution of the pest and the future distribution using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 in 2050 and 2070. High AUC and TSS values indicated model accuracy and high performance. Response curves showed that the optimal temperature for the S. littoralis is between 10 and 28 °C. The pest is currently found in Africa and is widely distributed across the Middle East and throughout Southern Europe. MaxEnt results revealed that the insect will shift towards Northern Europe and the Americas. Further, China was seen to have a suitable climate. We also extrapolated the impact of these results on major producing countries and how this affects trade flow, which help decision makers to take the invasiveness of such destructive pest into their account.}, }
@article {pmid37827308, year = {2024}, author = {Han, J and Kim, M and Mammadov, Z and Lee, S and Elzinga, EJ and Mammadov, G and Hwang, W and Ro, HM}, title = {Synergistic effect of climate change and water management: Historical and future soil salinity in the Kur-Araz lowland, Azerbaijan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {907}, number = {}, pages = {167720}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167720}, pmid = {37827308}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {While soil salinization is a major threat to the food security and sustainability of humanity, information on salinization in developing countries is limited. In this study, Landsat data were used to predict the salinization process from 1986 to 2021 in the Kur-Araz lowland of Azerbaijan, and water movement and salinity transport models were developed to calculate the effects of climate change and water management. The model results showed that increases in rainfall and drainage have led to dramatic improvements in soil salinity and agricultural productivity and that these changes were caused by the synergistic effect of climate change and water management. The future predictions indicate that rainfall will decrease due to the decrease in evaporation in the neighboring Caspian Sea, leading to further re-salinization. Soil re-salinization would be a severe threat to the sustainability of the agricultural industry and food security of Azerbaijan and neighboring countries. More scientific attention and efforts should be devoted to developing countries in preparation for the impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37827081, year = {2023}, author = {Zhan, Q and de Senerpont Domis, LN and Lürling, M and Marcé, R and Heuts, TS and Teurlincx, S}, title = {Process-based modeling for ecosystem service provisioning: Non-linear responses to restoration efforts in a quarry lake under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {119163}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119163}, pmid = {37827081}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Lakes ; Climate Change ; Ecology ; Phosphorus/analysis ; }, abstract = {Healthy freshwater ecosystems can provide vital ecosystem services (ESs), and this capacity may be hampered due to water quality deterioration and climate change. In the currently available ES modeling tools, ecosystem processes are either absent or oversimplified, hindering the evaluation of impacts of restoration measures on ES provisioning. In this study, we propose an ES modeling tool that integrates lake physics, ecology and service provisioning into a holistic modeling framework. We applied this model to a Dutch quarry lake, to evaluate how nine ESs respond to technological-based (phosphorus (P) reduction) and nature-based measures (wetland restoration). As climate change might be affecting the future effectiveness of restoration efforts, we also studied the climate change impacts on the outcome of restoration measures and provisioning of ESs, using climate scenarios for the Netherlands in 2050. Our results indicate that both phosphorus reduction and wetland restoration mitigated eutrophication symptoms, resulting in increased oxygen concentrations and water transparency, and decreased phytoplankton biomass. Delivery of most ESs was improved, including swimming, P retention, and macrophyte habitat, whereas the ES provisioning that required a more productive system was impaired (sport fishing and bird watching). However, our modeling results suggested hampered effectiveness of restoration measures upon exposure to future climate conditions, which may require intensification of restoration efforts in the future to meet restoration targets. Importantly, ESs provisioning showed non-linear responses to increasing intensity of restoration measures, indicating that effectiveness of restoration measures does not necessarily increase proportionally. In conclusion, the ecosystem service modeling framework proposed in this study, provides a holistic evaluation of lake restoration measures on ecosystem services provisioning, and can contribute to development of climate-robust management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid37824611, year = {2023}, author = {Millard, J and Outhwaite, CL and Ceaușu, S and Carvalheiro, LG and da Silva E Silva, FD and Dicks, LV and Ollerton, J and Newbold, T}, title = {Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {41}, pages = {eadh0756}, pmid = {37824611}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Insecta ; Biodiversity ; Pollination ; Agriculture ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Insect pollinator biodiversity is changing rapidly, with potential consequences for the provision of crop pollination. However, the role of land use-climate interactions in pollinator biodiversity changes, as well as consequent economic effects via changes in crop pollination, remains poorly understood. We present a global assessment of the interactive effects of climate change and land use on pollinator abundance and richness and predictions of the risk to crop pollination from the inferred changes. Using a dataset containing 2673 sites and 3080 insect pollinator species, we show that the interactive combination of agriculture and climate change is associated with large reductions in insect pollinators. As a result, it is expected that the tropics will experience the greatest risk to crop production from pollinator losses. Localized risk is highest and predicted to increase most rapidly, in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, northern South America, and Southeast Asia. Via pollinator loss alone, climate change and agricultural land use could be a risk to human well-being.}, }
@article {pmid37824514, year = {2023}, author = {Effrosynidis, D and Sylaios, G and Arampatzis, A}, title = {Correction: Exploring climate change on Twitter using seven aspects: Stance, sentiment, aggressiveness, temperature, gender, topics, and disasters.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {10}, pages = {e0293151}, pmid = {37824514}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0274213.].}, }
@article {pmid37824463, year = {2023}, author = {Alam, E and Hridoy, AE and Tusher, SMSH and Islam, ARMT and Islam, MK}, title = {Climate change in Bangladesh: Temperature and rainfall climatology of Bangladesh for 1949-2013 and its implication on rice yield.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {10}, pages = {e0292668}, pmid = {37824463}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Temperature ; *Oryza ; Climate Change ; Bangladesh ; Meteorology ; Crops, Agricultural ; Amantadine ; }, abstract = {Bangladesh has been ranked as one of the world's top countries affected by climate change, particularly in terms of agricultural crop sector. The purpose of this study is to identify spatial and temporal changes and trends in long-term climate at local and national scales, as well as their implications for rice yield. In this study, Modified Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests were used to detect significant trends and the magnitude of changes in temperature and rainfall. The temperature and rainfall data observed and recorded at 35 meteorological stations in Bangladesh over 65-years in the time span between the years 1949 and 2013 have been used to detect these changes and trends of variation. The results show that mean annual Tmean, Tmin, and Tmax have increased significantly by 0.13°C, 0.13°C, and 0.13°C/decade, respectively. The most significant increasing trend in seasonal temperatures for the respective Tmean, Tmin, and Tmax was 0.18°C per decade (post-monsoon), 0.18°C/decade (winter), and 0.23°C/decade (post-monsoon), respectively. Furthermore, the mean annual and pre-monsoon rainfall showed a significant increasing trend at a rate of 4.20 mm and 1.35 mm/year, respectively. This paper also evaluates climate variability impacts on three major rice crops, Aus, Aman, and Boro during 1970-2013. The results suggest that crop yield variability can be explained by climate variability during Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons by 33, 25, and 16%, respectively. Maximum temperature significantly affected the Aus and Aman crop yield, whereas rainfall significantly affected all rice crops' yield. This study sheds light on sustainable agriculture in the context of climate change, which all relevant authorities should investigate in order to examine climate-resilient, high-yield crop cultivation.}, }
@article {pmid37821142, year = {2023}, author = {Dominguez-Rodriguez, A and Villarreal-Zegarra, D and Malaquias-Obregon, S and Herdoiza-Arroyo, PE and González-Cantero, JO and Chávez-Valdez, SM and Cruz-Martínez, RR}, title = {Measurement scales of mental health related to climate change: a scoping review protocol using artificial intelligence.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e071073}, pmid = {37821142}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Humans ; *Artificial Intelligence ; *Climate Change ; Consensus ; *Mental Health ; Meta-Analysis as Topic ; *Psychological Well-Being ; Research Design ; Review Literature as Topic ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; Internationality ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Human actions have influenced climate changes around the globe, causing extreme weather phenomena and impacting communities worldwide. Climate change has caused, directly or indirectly, health effects such as injury and physical injuries, which impact morbidity and mortality. Similarly, there is evidence that exposure to climatic catastrophes has serious repercussions on psychological well-being, and rising temperatures and drought have detrimental effects on mental health.Despite the recent effort of researchers to develop specific instruments to assess the effects of climate change on mental health, the evidence on measures of its impact is still scarce, and the constructs are heterogeneous. The aim of this scoping review is to describe the instruments developed and validated to assess the impact of mental health related to climate change.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This review is registered at Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/zdmbk). This scoping review will follow the reporting elements chosen for systematic review and meta-analysis (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses). We proposed a PO question, as it places no restrictions on the participants (P), and the outcome (O) are measurement instruments on mental health related to climate change. A search will be conducted in different databases (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, PsycINFO). We will use an open-source artificial intelligence screening tool (ASReview LAB) for the title and abstract review. The full-text review will be performed by three researchers. If there is a disagreement between two independent reviewers, a third reviewer will take the final decision. We will use the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments tool to assess the risk of bias for each included study. The review will be conducted starting in September 2023.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The planned scoping review does not require ethical approval since it will not involve an ethical risk to the participants. The results obtained from this study will be presented at conferences, congresses and scientific publications.}, }
@article {pmid37821134, year = {2023}, author = {Shrikhande, S and Merten, S and Cambaco, O and Lee, TT and Lakshmanasamy, R and Röösli, M and Dalvie, MA and Utzinger, J and Cissé, G}, title = {Barriers to climate change and health research in India: a qualitative study.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e073381}, pmid = {37821134}, issn = {2044-6055}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Qualitative Research ; India ; Health Personnel ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Almost a quarter of the global burden of disease and mortalities is attributable to environmental causes, the magnitude of which is projected to increase in the near future. However, in many low- and middle-income settings, there remains a large gap in the synthesis of evidence on climate-sensitive health outcomes. In India, now the world's most populous country, little remains known about the impacts of climate change on various health outcomes. The objective of this study is to better understand the challenges faced in conducting climate change and health research in Puducherry, India.<br><br>DESIGN AND SETTING: In this study, we employed key informant interviews to deepen the understanding of the perceived research barriers in Puducherry. The findings were analysed using data-driven qualitative thematic analysis to elaborate the major perceived barriers to conducting environmental health research.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: This study was conducted among 16 public health professionals, including medical researchers, and professionals involved in environmental policies and planning in Puducherry.<br><br>RESULTS: We identify three key barriers faced by public health professionals as key stakeholders, namely: (1) political and institutional barriers; (2) education and awareness barriers; and (3) technical research barriers. We show there is a need, from the professionals' perspective, to improve community and political awareness on climate change and health; strengthen technical research capacity and collaboration among researchers; and strengthen health surveillance, resource allocation and access to health data for research.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Evidence informed policies and interventions are a key element in the adaptation response for countries. In the context of the paucity of data on environmental health from India, despite recognised climate change related health vulnerabilities, these findings could contribute to the development and improvement of relevant interventions conducive to a strong research environment.}, }
@article {pmid37821071, year = {2023}, author = {Ravindiran, G and Rajamanickam, S and Kanagarathinam, K and Hayder, G and Janardhan, G and Arunkumar, P and Arunachalam, S and AlObaid, AA and Warad, I and Muniasamy, SK}, title = {Impact of air pollutants on climate change and prediction of air quality index using machine learning models.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {239}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {117354}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117354}, pmid = {37821071}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants ; Climate Change ; India ; *Air Pollution ; Machine Learning ; }, abstract = {The impact of air pollution in Chennai metropolitan city, a southern Indian coastal city was examined to predict the Air Quality Index (AQI). Regular monitoring and prediction of the Air Quality Index (AQI) are critical for combating air pollution. The current study created machine learning models such as XGBoost, Random Forest, BaggingRegressor, and LGBMRegressor for the prediction of the AQI using the historical data available from 2017 to 2022. According to historical data, the AQI is highest in January, with a mean value of 104.6 g/gm, and the lowest in August, with a mean AQI value of 63.87 g/gm. Particulate matter, gaseous pollutants, and meteorological parameters were used to predict AQI, and the heat map generated showed that of all the parameters, PM2.5 has the greatest impact on AQI, with a value of 0.91. The log transformation method is used to normalize datasets and determine skewness and kurtosis. The XGBoost model demonstrated strong performance, achieving an R[2] (correlation coefficient) of 0.9935, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.02, a mean square error (MSE) of 0.001, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.04. In comparison, the LightGBM model's prediction was less effective, as it attained an R[2] of 0.9748. According to the study, the AQI in Chennai has been increasing over the last two years, and if the same conditions persist, the city's air pollution will worsen in the future. Furthermore, accurate future air quality level predictions can be made using historical data and advanced machine learning algorithms.}, }
@article {pmid37821061, year = {2024}, author = {Oloruntobi, O and Chuah, LF and Mokhtar, K and Gohari, A and Rady, A and Abo-Eleneen, RE and Akhtar, MS and Mubashir, M}, title = {Decarbonising ASEAN coastal shipping: Addressing climate change and coastal ecosystem issues through sustainable carbon neutrality strategies.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {240}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {117353}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117353}, pmid = {37821061}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Ships ; Carbon Dioxide ; Carbon ; Biodiversity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This study analyzes the impact of ASEAN's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 on climate change and coastal ecosystems by examining carbon emissions and energy usage from 2019 to 2050 using different scenarios to reduce emissions and meet global temperature goals. This research proposes strategies to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change effects on coastal ecosystems, focusing on evaluating CO2 emissions from ASEAN's coastal shipping sector. Geospatial data was used to analyze ship activity and develop carbon neutrality strategies. Various sources are used to gather data, including the Maritime Portal, exact Earth AIS, FASA and GFW. This study finds that container ships emitted 13.7 × 10[6] t of CO2 in 2019, with the transportation sector contributing 3.8% of the total greenhouse gas in 2020. Without regulations, CO2 emissions could increase fourfold by 2050. The study recommends implementing policies such as adopting clean fuels, energy efficiency standards and fuel-related regulations to reduce CO2 emissions by 65-80% by 2050. It also emphasizes the importance of cleaner technologies, regulatory considerations and collaboration, which would have positive implications for coastal ecosystems. This study is beneficial to professionals in the maritime and shipping industries, policy makers, environmental consultants, sustainability specialists, and international organizations.}, }
@article {pmid37821039, year = {2023}, author = {Bank, MS and Ho, QT and Ingvaldsen, RB and Duinker, A and Nilsen, BM and Maage, A and Frantzen, S}, title = {Climate change dynamics and mercury temporal trends in Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) from the Barents Sea ecosystem.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {338}, number = {}, pages = {122706}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2023.122706}, pmid = {37821039}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; *Gadus morhua ; *Mercury/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Food Chain ; Fishes ; Arctic Regions ; }, abstract = {The Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) is the world's northernmost stock of Atlantic cod and is of considerable ecological and economic importance. Northeast Arctic cod are widely distributed in the Barents Sea, an environment that supports a high degree of ecosystem resiliency and food web complexity. Here using 121 years of ocean temperature data (1900-2020), 41 years of sea ice extent information (1979-2020) and 27 years of total mercury (Hg) fillet concentration data (1994-2021, n = 1999, ≥71% Methyl Hg, n = 20) from the Barents Sea ecosystem, we evaluate the effects of climate change dynamics on Hg temporal trends in Northeast Arctic cod. We observed low and consistently stable, Hg concentrations (yearly, least-square means range = 0.022-0.037 mg/kg wet wt.) in length-normalized fish, with a slight decline in the most recent sampling periods despite a significant increase in Barents Sea temperature, and a sharp decline in regional sea ice extent. Overall, our data suggest that recent Arctic amplification of ocean temperature, "Atlantification," and other perturbations of the Barents Sea ecosystem, along with rapidly declining sea ice extent over the last ∼30 years did not translate into major increases or decreases in Hg bioaccumulation in Northeast Arctic cod. Our findings are consistent with similar long-term, temporal assessments of Atlantic cod inhabiting Oslofjord, Norway, and with recent investigations and empirical data for other marine apex predators. This demonstrates that Hg bioaccumulation is highly context specific, and some species may not be as sensitive to current climate change-contaminant interactions as currently thought. Fish Hg bioaccumulation-climate change relationships are highly complex and not uniform, and our data suggest that Hg temporal trends in marine apex predators can vary considerably within and among species, and geographically. Hg bioaccumulation regimes in biota are highly nuanced and likely driven by a suite of other factors such as local diets, sources of Hg, bioenergetics, toxicokinetic processing, and growth and metabolic rates of individuals and taxa, and inputs from anthropogenic activities at varying spatiotemporal scales. Collectively, these findings have important policy implications for global food security, the Minamata Convention on Mercury, and several relevant UN Sustainable Development Goals.}, }
@article {pmid37820434, year = {2023}, author = {Dorado-Guerra, DY and Paredes-Arquiola, J and Pérez-Martín, M&#xc1; and Corzo-Pérez, G and Ríos-Rojas, L}, title = {Effect of climate change on the water quality of Mediterranean rivers and alternatives to improve its status.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {119069}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119069}, pmid = {37820434}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Water Quality ; Rivers ; Climate Change ; Nitrates ; Phosphorus/analysis ; *Ammonium Compounds ; }, abstract = {Surface water (SW) quality is particularly vulnerable to increased concentrations of nutrients, and this issue may be exacerbated by climate change. Knowledge of the effects of temperature and rainfall on SW quality is required to take the necessary measures to achieve good SW status in the future. To address this, the aims of this study were threefold: (1) to assess how a changing climate may alter the nitrate, ammonium, phosphorus and biological oxygen demand status (BOD5) of SW; (2) assess the relationship between water quality and flow; and (3) simulate diffuse and point source pollution reduction scenarios in the Júcar River Basin District in the Mediterranean region. A regionalised long-term climate scenario was used following one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) with the data incorporated into the coupling of hydrological and water quality models. According to these climate change scenarios, SW with poor nitrate, ammonium, phosphorus and BOD5 status are expected to increase in the future by factors of 1.3, 1.9, 4 and 4, respectively. Furthermore, median ammonium and phosphorus concentration may be doubled in months with low flows. Additional measures are required to maintain current status in the water bodies, and it is necessary to reduce at least 25% of diffuse nitrate pollution, and 50% of point loads of ammonium, phosphorus, and BOD5.}, }
@article {pmid37813437, year = {2023}, author = {Webb, D and Hanssen, ON and Marten, R}, title = {The health sector and fiscal policies of fossil fuels: an essential alignment for the health and climate change agenda.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 8}, pages = {}, pmid = {37813437}, issn = {2059-7908}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Fossil Fuels ; *Fiscal Policy ; Public Policy ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid37819884, year = {2023}, author = {Harper, SL and Cunsolo, A and Aylward, B and Clayton, S and Minor, K and Cooper, M and Vriezen, R}, title = {Estimating climate change and mental health impacts in Canada: A cross-sectional survey protocol.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {10}, pages = {e0291303}, pmid = {37819884}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Adolescent ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Canada/epidemiology ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Climate Change ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change has severe and sweeping impacts on mental health. Although research is burgeoning on mental health impacts following climate and weather extremes, less is known about how common these impacts are outside of extreme events. Existing research exploring the prevalence of psychosocial responses to climate change primarily examines university students and uses non-random sampling methods. Herein, our protocol outlines an approach to data collection, processing, and analysis to estimate the population prevalence, magnitude, and distribution of mental health responses to climate change in Canada. A cross-sectional survey of youth and adults aged 13 years and older in Canada will be administered over the course of one year. The questionnaire will take approximately 10 minutes to complete orally and will be administered in English, French, and Inuktitut. The survey will consist of six sections: (1) self-reported past experiences of climate change; (2) self-reported climate-related emotions; (3) self-reported past and current impacts, anticipatory impacts, and vicarious experiences; (4) self-reported subclinical outcomes; (5) self-reported behavioural responses; and (6) demographics. A multi-stage, multi-stratified random probability sampling method will be used to obtain a sample representative of the Canadian population. We will use two different modes of recruitment: an addressed letter sent by postal mail or a telephone call (landlines and cellular). Population-weighted descriptive statistics, principal component analysis, and weighted multivariable regression will be used to analyse the data. The results of this survey will provide the first national prevalence estimates of subclinical mental health responses to climate change outcomes of people living in Canada.}, }
@article {pmid37819471, year = {2023}, author = {Han, V and Ocal, O and Aslan, A}, title = {Is energy poverty of Eastern European countries a threat or opportunity in the European Union's fight against climate change?.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {51}, pages = {111570-111581}, pmid = {37819471}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Quality of Life ; European Union ; Poverty ; Economic Development ; Carbon Dioxide ; Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {Energy poverty is a critical global issue that affects millions of people worldwide. The lack of access to reliable and affordable energy services has significant economic and social impacts, including limited opportunities for education, personal development, and economic growth. This paper examines the relationship between energy poverty and economic development in selected countries using the panel quantile methodology. The findings emphasize the importance of addressing energy poverty in order to foster economic growth in the selected country group. In addition, CO2 emissions have a positive effect on economic growth, but policies to reduce fossil fuel consumption can both boost economic growth and mitigate negative environmental impacts. Inflation has a negative effect on economic growth, so policymakers should prioritize measures to control it. Employment has a positive effect on economic growth, so job creation policies should be promoted. The study found that improving access to clean energy can increase economic growth and improve the well-being of citizens in Eastern European countries. Therefore, efforts to reduce energy poverty should be a priority to promote economic development and improve the quality of life.}, }
@article {pmid37819148, year = {2023}, author = {Bond, ML and Lee, DE and Paniw, M}, title = {Extinction risks and mitigation for a megaherbivore, the giraffe, in a human-influenced landscape under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {23}, pages = {6693-6712}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16970}, pmid = {37819148}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Cincinnati Zoo and Botanical Gardens/ ; //Columbus Zoo and Aquarium/ ; //Como Park Zoo and Conservatory/ ; Ram&#xf3;n y Cajal Program RYC2021-033192-I//European Social Fund/ ; //GreaterGood.org/ ; //Ministerio de Econom&#xed;a y Competitividad/ ; //Parrotia-Stiftung/ ; //Roger Williams Park Zoo/ ; //Sacramento Zoological Society/ ; //Save the Giraffes/ ; P500PB_206670/1//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung/ ; //The Living Desert Zoo and Gardens/ ; //Tierpark Berlin/ ; //Toronto Zoo/ ; //Tulsa Zoo Management, Inc./ ; //Zoo Miami/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Female ; *Giraffes ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Tanzania ; }, abstract = {Megaherbivores play "outsized" roles in ecosystem functioning but are vulnerable to human impacts such as overhunting, land-use changes, and climate extremes. However, such impacts-and combinations of these impacts-on population dynamics are rarely examined using empirical data. To guide effective conservation actions under increasing global-change pressures, we developed a socially structured individual-based model (IBM) using long-term demographic data from female giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) in a human-influenced landscape in northern Tanzania, the Tarangire Ecosystem. This unfenced system includes savanna habitats with a wide gradient of anthropogenic pressures, from national parks, a wildlife ranch and community conservation areas, to unprotected village lands. We then simulated and projected over 50 years how realistic environmental and land-use management changes might affect this metapopulation of female giraffes. Scenarios included: (1) anthropogenic land-use changes including roads and agricultural/urban expansion; (2) reduction or improvement in wildlife law enforcement measures; (3) changes in populations of natural predators and migratory alternative prey; and (4) increases in rainfall as predicted for East Africa. The factor causing the greatest risk of rapid declines in female giraffe abundance in our simulations was a reduction in law enforcement leading to more poaching. Other threats decreased abundances of giraffes, but improving law enforcement in both of the study area's protected areas mitigated these impacts: a 0.01 increase in giraffe survival probability from improved law enforcement mitigated a 25% rise in heavy rainfall events by increasing abundance 19%, and mitigated the expansion of towns and blockage of dispersal movements by increasing abundance 22%. Our IBM enabled us to further quantify fine-scale abundance changes among female giraffe social communities, revealing potential source-sink interactions within the metapopulation. This flexible methodology can be adapted to test additional ecological questions in this landscape, or to model populations of giraffes or other species in different ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid37818326, year = {2023}, author = {Khaliq, I and Biber, M and E Bowler, D and Hof, C}, title = {Global change impacts on bird biodiversity in South Asia: potential effects of future land-use and climate change on avian species richness in Pakistan.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e16212}, pmid = {37818326}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; Asia, Southern ; Pakistan ; *Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; Birds ; }, abstract = {Evaluating the impact of future changes in land-use and climate on species communities, especially species richness, is one of the most important challenges of current research in ecology and conservation. The impact of environmental changes on species richness depends on its sensitivity (i.e., how strongly a given level of change influences the ecological community) and its exposure (i.e., the amount of change that occurs). To examine the sensitivity, exposure, and potential impact of future environmental conditions on bird communities, we compiled data on bird species richness for Pakistan-a neglected region in macro- or country-scale studies. Since bird species richness strongly varies across seasons due to the seasonal occurrence of migratory species in winter, we compared both wintering (migratory plus resident species) and breeding (resident species only) bird richness. We found breeding and wintering species richness to be sensitive to temperature, precipitation and rainfed cropland by being positively related to these factors. Exposure varied regionally, with projected temperature changes being most profound in northern regions while the strongest projected precipitation changes occurred in central and southern regions. The projected impact of future environmental change were highly heterogeneous across the country and differed between the wintering and breeding communities. Overall, the most negatively impacted region was projected to be the Khyber Pakhtunkha province in the North of Pakistan, due to reductions in precipitation and rainfed cropland, resulting in a projected negative impact, especially on wintering species richness. By highlighting the regional and seasonal bird communities most at risk, our findings provide useful information for policy makers to help devise new policies for mitigating negative impacts of future environmental changes on birds within Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid37818323, year = {2023}, author = {Khan, MIR and Irfan, M and Gupta, R}, title = {Editorial: Improving crop nutritional security for sustainable agriculture in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1292264}, pmid = {37818323}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid37817134, year = {2023}, author = {Lampard, P and Premji, S and Adamson, J and Bojke, L and Glerum-Brooks, K and Golder, S and Graham, H and Jankovic, D and Zeuner, D}, title = {Priorities for research to support local authority action on health and climate change: a study in England.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {1965}, pmid = {37817134}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {NIHR150799 - 21/527/DH_/Department of Health/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; England ; *Public Health/methods ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Evidence is needed to support local action to reduce the adverse health impacts of climate change and maximise the health co-benefits of climate action. Focused on England, the study identifies priority areas for research to inform local decision making.<br><br>METHODS: Firstly, potential priority areas for research were identified from a brief review of UK policy documents, and feedback invited from public and policy stakeholders. This included a survey of Directors of Public Health (DsPH) in England, the local government officers responsible for public health. Secondly, rapid reviews of research evidence examined whether there was UK evidence relating to the priorities identified in the survey.<br><br>RESULTS: The brief policy review pointed to the importance of evidence in two broad areas: (i) community engagement in local level action on the health impacts of climate change and (ii) the economic (cost) implications of such action. The DsPH survey (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;57) confirmed these priorities. With respect to community engagement, public understanding of climate change's health impacts and the public acceptability of local climate actions were identified as key evidence gaps. With respect to economic implications, the gaps related to evidence on the health and non-health-related costs and benefits of climate action and the short, medium and longer-term budgetary implications of such action, particularly with respect to investments in the built environment. Across both areas, the need for evidence relating to impacts across income groups was highlighted, a point also emphasised by the public involvement panel. The rapid reviews confirmed these evidence gaps (relating to public understanding, public acceptability, economic evaluation and social inequalities). In addition, public and policy stakeholders pointed to other barriers to action, including financial pressures, noting that better evidence is insufficient to enable effective local action.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is limited evidence to inform health-centred local action on climate change. More evidence is required on public perspectives on, and the economic dimensions of, local climate action. Investment in locally focused research is urgently needed if local governments are to develop and implement evidence-based policies to protect public health from climate change and maximise the health co-benefits of local action.}, }
@article {pmid37815453, year = {2023}, author = {Parlin, AF and Kendzel, MJ and Taylor, OR and Culley, TM and Matter, SF and Guerra, PA}, title = {The cost of movement: assessing energy expenditure in a long-distant ectothermic migrant under climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {226}, number = {21}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.245296}, pmid = {37815453}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Animal Migration/physiology ; *Butterflies/physiology ; Larva ; Energy Metabolism ; }, abstract = {Migration is an energetically taxing phenomenon as animals move across vast, heterogeneous landscapes where the cost of transport is impacted by permissible ambient conditions. In this study, we assessed the energetic demands of long-distance migration in a multigenerational ectothermic migrant, the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus). We tested the hypotheses that temperature-dependent physiological processes reduce energy reserves faster during migration than previously estimated, and that increasing climatic temperatures resulting from the climate crisis will intensify baseline daily energy expenditure. First, we reared monarchs under laboratory conditions to assess energy and mass conversion from fifth instar to adult stages, as a baseline for migratory adult mass and ontogenetic shifts in metabolic rate from larvae to adult. Then, using historical tag-recapture data, we estimated the movement propensity and migratory pace of autumn migrants using computer simulations and subsequently calculated energy expenditure. Finally, we estimated the energy use of monarchs based on these tag-recapture data and used this information to estimate daily energy expenditure over a 57 year period. We found support for our two hypotheses, noting that incorporating standard metabolic rate into estimates of migratory energy expenditure shows higher energy demand and that daily energy expenditure has been gradually increasing over time since 1961. Our study shows the deleterious energetic consequences under current climate change trajectories and highlights the importance of incorporating energetic estimates for understanding migration by small, ectothermic migrants.}, }
@article {pmid37814904, year = {2023}, author = {Thompson, MSA and Couce, E and Schratzberger, M and Lynam, CP}, title = {Climate change affects the distribution of diversity across marine food webs.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {23}, pages = {6606-6619}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16881}, pmid = {37814904}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DP427//Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science/ ; DP433//Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science/ ; 869300//European Commission/ ; NE/V017039/1//Natural Environment Research Council &amp; Economic and Social Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Food Chain ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Bayes Theorem ; Oceans and Seas ; Fishes/physiology ; }, abstract = {Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic shelf seas. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted for feeding guilds, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). Changing spatial patterns in predator-prey mass ratios and fish species size composition are also predicted for feeding guilds and across the fish assemblage. In combination, these changes could influence nutrient uptake and transformation, transfer efficiency and food web stability, and thus profoundly alter ecosystem structure and functioning.}, }
@article {pmid37813679, year = {2024}, author = {Nogueira, LM and Yabroff, KR}, title = {Climate change and cancer: the Environmental Justice perspective.}, journal = {Journal of the National Cancer Institute}, volume = {116}, number = {1}, pages = {15-25}, doi = {10.1093/jnci/djad185}, pmid = {37813679}, issn = {1460-2105}, mesh = {United States/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Social Justice ; Environmental Justice ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Neoplasms/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Despite advances in cancer control-prevention, screening, diagnosis, treatment, and survivorship-racial disparities in cancer incidence and survival persist and, in some cases, are widening in the United States. Since 2020, there's been growing recognition of the role of structural racism, including structurally racist policies and practices, as the main factor contributing to historical and contemporary disparities. Structurally racist policies and practices have been present since the genesis of the United States and are also at the root of environmental injustices, which result in disproportionately high exposure to environmental hazards among communities targeted for marginalization, increased cancer risk, disruptions in access to care, and worsening health outcomes. In addition to widening cancer disparities, environmental injustices enable the development of polluting infrastructure, which contribute to detrimental health outcomes in the entire population, and to climate change, the most pressing public health challenge of our time. In this commentary, we describe the connections between climate change and cancer through an Environmental Justice perspective (defined as the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of people of all racialized groups, nationalities, or income, in all aspects, including development, implementation, and enforcement, of policies and practices that affect the environment and public health), highlighting how the expertise developed in communities targeted for marginalization is crucial for addressing health disparities, tackling climate change, and advancing cancer control efforts for the entire population.}, }
@article {pmid37812783, year = {2023}, author = {Sherratt, S}, title = {Hearing Loss and Disorders: The Repercussions of Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of audiology}, volume = {32}, number = {4}, pages = {793-811}, doi = {10.1044/2023_AJA-23-00136}, pmid = {37812783}, issn = {1558-9137}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Hearing Loss ; *Deafness ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: Climate change is considered to be the greatest threat to human health in the 21st century, and its effects are accelerating. Extensive research has clearly demonstrated its increasing impact across the continuum of health conditions. Despite this, there has been limited attention to the ramifications of climate change on hearing loss and hearing disorders. This lack of consideration is somewhat surprising as the environment itself and its changing nature have a substantial effect on hearing.<br><br>METHOD: Tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century. To address this issue, this tutorial provides a general introduction to climate change and its three major elements (pollution, infectious diseases, and extreme weather events) and their effects on health. The substantial consequences of climate change for the incidence, development, and exacerbation of hearing loss and disorders are clearly described and detailed.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The challenge of responding to this very real and escalating threat to hearing requires a combination of prevention, advocacy, and education. These three roles place audiologists in the perfect position to take action on the far-reaching effects of climate change on hearing loss and disorders. To respond to this challenge and to fulfill these roles, several strategies, ranging from the individual level to the global level, are delineated for audiologists to incorporate into their practice.}, }
@article {pmid37812206, year = {2023}, author = {Klapproth, H and Klapproth, L and Ruegamer, T and Uhl, F and Jantsch, J and Fabri, M}, title = {[Bacterial infections of the skin in the context of climate change and migration].}, journal = {Dermatologie (Heidelberg, Germany)}, volume = {74}, number = {11}, pages = {851-857}, pmid = {37812206}, issn = {2731-7013}, mesh = {Humans ; *Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Bacterial Infections/drug therapy ; *Skin Diseases, Bacterial/epidemiology ; Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the context of climate change and migration, both common and previously less common pathogens are gaining importance as cutaneous bacterial infections.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To inform medical professionals about challenges to dermatology posed by climate change and migration.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: Review of the current literature on emerging antimicrobial resistance and emerging pathogens in general and on the epidemiological situation in Germany in particular.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change has a&#xa0;direct impact on microbiological ecosystems in Germany's warming coastal waters leading to an increase of marine V.&#xa0;vulnificus counts and human infections. Secondary to global warming, transmitting vectors of, for example, Lyme disease, rickettsioses and tularemia are also increasing. In addition, infectious diseases like cutaneous diphtheria and mycobacteriosis have been diagnosed in migrants, mostly likely acquired before migration or on the migration route and first diagnosed in Germany. In this context, antimicrobial resistance (e.g. methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus [MRSA] and multidrug-resistant gram-negative bacteria) is gaining importance.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Due to progressive changes in global climate and ongoing migration, the aforementioned pathogens of infectious skin diseases and changes in antimicrobial resistance patterns have to be expected. Physicians should be aware of these developments in order to offer appropriate diagnostics and treatment. Epidemiological and biogeographic monitoring will be indispensable for managing emerging changes.}, }
@article {pmid37812044, year = {2023}, author = {de Oliveira, JV and Vasquez, VL and Beltrão-Mendes, R and Pinto, MP}, title = {Climate change effects on the distribution of yellow-breasted capuchin monkey (Sapajus xanthosternos (Wied-Neuwied, 1826)).}, journal = {American journal of primatology}, volume = {85}, number = {12}, pages = {e23557}, doi = {10.1002/ajp.23557}, pmid = {37812044}, issn = {1098-2345}, mesh = {Animals ; *Cebus ; *Sapajus ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {The magnitude of recent climatic changes has no historical precedent and impacts biodiversity. Climatic changes may displace suitable habitats (areas with suitable climates), leading to global biodiversity decline. Primates are among the most affected groups. Most primates depend on forests and contribute to their maintenance. We evaluated the potential effects of climatic change on the distribution of Sapajus xanthosternos, a critically endangered primate whose geographical range encompasses three Brazilian biomes. We evaluated changes between baseline (1970-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates using multivariate analysis. Then, we compared current and future (2100) climatic suitability projections for the species. The climatic changes predicted throughout the S. xanthosternos range differed mostly longitudinally, with higher temperature increases in the west and higher precipitation reductions in the east. Climatic suitability for S. xanthosternos is predicted to decline in the future. Areas with highest current climatic suitability occur as a narrow strip in the eastern part of the geographic range throughout the latitudinal range. In the future, areas with highest values are projected to be located as an even narrower strip in the eastern part of the geographical range. A small portion of forest remnants larger than 150 ha located in the east has larger current and future suitability values. At this large scale, the spatial heterogeneity of the climate effects reinforce the importance of maintenance of current populations in different areas of the range. The possibility that phenotypic plasticity helps primates cope with reduced climatic suitability may be mediated by habitat availability, quality, and connectivity.}, }
@article {pmid37810609, year = {2023}, author = {White, BP and Breakey, S and Brown, MJ and Smith, JR and Tarbet, A and Nicholas, PK and Ros, AMV}, title = {Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change Among Vulnerable Populations Globally: An Integrative Review.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {89}, number = {1}, pages = {66}, pmid = {37810609}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Aged ; *Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; Vulnerable Populations ; Anxiety/epidemiology ; Anxiety Disorders ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has been shown to be directly linked to multiple physiological sequelae and to impact health consequences. However, the impact of climate change on mental health globally, particularly among vulnerable populations, is less well understood.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To explore the mental health impacts of climate change in vulnerable populations globally.<br><br>METHODS: We performed an integrative literature review to identify published articles that addressed the research question: What are the mental health impacts of climate change among vulnerable populations globally? The Vulnerable Populations Conceptual Model served as a theoretical model during the review process and data synthesis.<br><br>FINDINGS/RESULTS: One hundred and four articles were selected for inclusion in this review after a comprehensive review of 1828 manuscripts. Articles were diverse in scope and populations addressed. Land-vulnerable persons (either due to occupation or geographic location), Indigenous persons, children, older adults, and climate migrants were among the vulnerable populations whose mental health was most impacted by climate change. The most prevalent mental health responses to climate change included solastalgia, suicidality, depression, anxiety/eco-anxiety, PTSD, substance use, insomnia, and behavioral disturbance.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Mental health professionals including physicians, nurses, physician assistants and other healthcare providers have the opportunity to mitigate the mental health impacts of climate change among vulnerable populations through assessment, preventative education and care. An inclusive and trauma-informed response to climate-related disasters, use of validated measures of mental health, and a long-term therapeutic relationship that extends beyond the immediate consequences of climate change-related events are approaches to successful mental health care in a climate-changing world.}, }
@article {pmid37809882, year = {2023}, author = {Ansari, A and Pranesti, A and Telaumbanua, M and Alam, T and Taryono,  and Wulandari, RA and Nugroho, BDA and Supriyanta, }, title = {Evaluating the effect of climate change on rice production in Indonesia using multimodelling approach.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {e19639}, pmid = {37809882}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Achieving global food security in the face of climate change is a critical challenge, particularly in vulnerable countries like Indonesia. To effectively address this challenge, a systems-based approach utilizing climate-hydrological-crop models has emerged as an integral approach. These models integrate climate, hydrological, and crop components to understand and predict the complex interactions within agricultural systems and their responses to climate variables. By employing this approach, policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders can gain comprehensive insights into the potential consequences of climate change on crop growth, water availability, soil fertility, and overall crop yield. However, challenges exist in the implementation of this approach, including data reliability; scarcity of complete long-term data; lack of experimental information about crop species, especially local varieties; inadequate research resources; lack of expertise concerning modeling approaches; lack of testing; inaccurate testing; calibration; and model uncertainties. Furthermore, to address limitations and challenges in implementing this approach, improving the availability and reliability of data, collection method, and data quality should be conducted to ensure the accuracy of simulation and prediction. Finally, climate-hydrological-crop models, alongside improved data collection and modelling techniques, serve as essential tools for guiding the development of effective adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change on rice production in Indonesia.}, }
@article {pmid37809853, year = {2023}, author = {Karami, H and Sayahnia, R and Barghjelveh, S}, title = {Integrating climate change adaptation policies in spatial development planning in hyperarid regions of Kerman province, Iran.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {e19785}, pmid = {37809853}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {In recent years, lifestyle changes and urbanization of societies, as well as macro-environmental changes, i.e. climate changes (CCs), have caused changes in the land spatial structure and the transfer of resources between different economic sectors of the land. The development of long-term spatial development plans (SDPs) needs to be compatible with CCs, especially in hyperarid areas with low supplies and high demands. In this research, machine learning methods; including Cellular Automata (CA), Random Forest (RF) and regression models through PLUS model were used to simulate the amount of supplies and demands based on land cover (LC) maps during the years 2000, 2010 and 2020 in the hyperarid areas of Kerman, Iran. Then, the best predicted model (Kappa = 0.94, overall accuracy = 0.98) was used to simulate changes in LC classes under climate change scenarios (CCSs) for 2050. The results showed the efficiency of machine learning in simulating land cover changes (LCCs) under CCSs. Findings revealed that SDPs of these areas are not compatible under any possible consideration of CCSs. The modeling results showed that spatial development plans under CCSs is not environmentally efficient and there is no compatibility between supplies, based on agricultural lands, and demands, based on increased population, by 2050. Overall, under the scenario of RCP 8.5, man-made, agriculture and natural LC classes with 106.9, 2.9, and 18.6% changes, respectively, showed the greatest changes compared to 2020. Population control, adjustment of infrastructures, and changes in LC plans can reduce socio-economical and socio-environmental problems in the future of hyperarid areas to some extent.}, }
@article {pmid37809733, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, T and Sun, C and Yang, Z}, title = {Climate change and sustainable agricultural growth in the sahel region: Mitigating or resilient policy response?.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {e19839}, pmid = {37809733}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The aim of this study is to provide an empirical answer to the question of whether nexus exists between climate change and sustainable agricultural growth in nine (9) countries within the Sahel region between 1990 and 2020. The study utilized Panel ARDL and Pairwise Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality Tests to arrive at the following conclusions; firstly, the climate change orchestrated by change in rainfall is a very prominent factor causing reduction in sustainable agricultural growth in the Sahel region. One way feedback relationship flows from sustainable agricultural growth to greenhouse gas emission. In the light of the above, this study recommends that, in addressing the adverse effects of change in rainfall on agricultural sustainability, the policymakers in the Sahel region in particular and Africa as a whole should embark on a policy mix by embanking on mitigating policy response towards ensuring sustainable agricultural production via irrigation which is the best mode of water provisions without causing negative spilliovers on the environment. Also, the policymakers should be proactive by embarking on policies and programs that would build the resilience and adaptation of the region ahead of the future adverse effects of agriculturally induced climatic change.}, }
@article {pmid37809438, year = {2023}, author = {Mengistu, AG and Tesfuhuney, WA and Woyessa, YE and Steyn, AS}, title = {Potential distribution of selected invasive alien plants under current and future climate change scenarios in South Africa.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {e19867}, pmid = {37809438}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Invasive alien plants are one of the main causes for the decline of native biodiversity worldwide. Hence, it is crucial to understand the dynamics of invasive plants in the context of a changing climate. The main aim of this study was to evaluate the potential distribution of two major invasive alien plants, Prosopis spp and Acacia mearnsii, under current and future climate change scenarios across South Africa. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used with species occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. The Species occurrence data was obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), while the bioclimatic variables were downloaded from the WorldClim database. The model evaluation metrics for training and test samples were the area under curve (AUC) of 0.76 and 0.77 for Prosopis spp, and 0.91 and 0.89 for A. mearnsii, respectively. It showed that MaxEnt performed well in mapping the distribution of both species. Model results indicated that the near-current potential distribution of Prosopis spp and A. mearnsii in South Africa is significant (93.8% and 9.7% of the total land area, respectively). With the projected climate, Prosopis spp showed an inconsistent result across the General Circulation Models (GCMs), projection times and climate change scenarios. However, with respect to the current potential distribution, the geographical ranges of A. mearnsii will significantly contract (by about 75%) due to climate change. Therefore, it is imperative that policy makers, environmental managers and other stakeholders implement integrated management and control strategies to restrict the distribution of Prosopis spp.}, }
@article {pmid37808973, year = {2023}, author = {Fujimoto, M and Hayashi, K and Nishiura, H}, title = {Possible adaptation measures for climate change in preventing heatstroke among older adults in Japan.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1184963}, pmid = {37808973}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Japan/epidemiology ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Heat Stroke/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/etiology ; Carbon ; Water ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Heatstroke mortality is highest among older adults aged 65 years and older, and the risk is even doubled among those aged 75 years and older. The incidence of heatstroke is expected to increase in the future with elevated temperatures owing to climate change. In the context of a super-aged society, we examined possible adaptation measures in Japan that could prevent heatstroke among older people using an epidemiological survey combined with mathematical modeling.<br><br>METHODS: To identify possible interventions, we conducted a cross-sectional survey, collecting information on heatstroke episodes from 2018 to 2019 among people aged 75&#x2009;years and older. Responses were analyzed from 576 participants, and propensity score matching was used to adjust for measurable confounders and used to estimate the effect sizes associated with variables that constitute possible interventions. Subsequently, a weather-driven statistical model was used to predict heatstroke-related ambulance transports. We projected the incidence of heatstroke-related transports until the year 2100, with and without adaptation measures.<br><br>RESULTS: The risk factor with the greatest odds ratio (OR) of heatstroke among older adults was living alone (OR 2.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.2-5.4). Other possible risk factors included an inability to drink water independently and the absence of air conditioning. Using three climate change scenarios, a more than 30% increase in the incidence of heatstroke-related ambulance transports was anticipated for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, as compared with a carbon-neutral scenario. Given 30% reduction in single living, a 15% reduction in the incidence of heatstroke is expected. Given 70% improvement in all three risk factors, a 40% reduction in the incidence can be expected.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Possible adaptation measures include providing support for older adults living alone, for those who have an inability to drink water and for those without air conditioning. To be comparable to carbon neutrality, future climate change under RCP 2.6 requires achieving a 30% relative reduction in all three identified risks at least from 2060; under RCP 4.5, a 70% reduction from 2050 at the latest is needed. In the case of RCP 8.5, the goal of heatstroke-related transports approaching RCP 1.9 cannot be achieved.}, }
@article {pmid37807688, year = {2023}, author = {Schuur, EAG and Hicks Pries, C and Mauritz, M and Pegoraro, E and Rodenhizer, H and See, C and Ebert, C}, title = {Ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon detects old carbon release as a fingerprint of warming and permafrost destabilization with climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {381}, number = {2261}, pages = {20220201}, pmid = {37807688}, issn = {1471-2962}, mesh = {*Permafrost ; Soil ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Carbon/metabolism ; Arctic Regions ; }, abstract = {The permafrost region has accumulated organic carbon in cold and waterlogged soils over thousands of years and now contains three times as much carbon as the atmosphere. Global warming is degrading permafrost with the potential to accelerate climate change as increased microbial decomposition releases soil carbon as greenhouse gases. A 19-year time series of soil and ecosystem respiration radiocarbon from Alaska provides long-term insight into changing permafrost soil carbon dynamics in a warmer world. Nine per cent of ecosystem respiration and 23% of soil respiration observations had radiocarbon values more than 50‰ lower than the atmospheric value. Furthermore, the overall trend of ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon values through time decreased more than atmospheric radiocarbon values did, indicating that old carbon degradation was enhanced. Boosted regression tree analyses showed that temperature and moisture environmental variables had the largest relative influence on lower radiocarbon values. This suggested that old carbon degradation was controlled by warming/permafrost thaw and soil drying together, as waterlogged soil conditions could protect soil carbon from microbial decomposition even when thawed. Overall, changing conditions increasingly favoured the release of old carbon, which is a definitive fingerprint of an accelerating feedback to climate change as a consequence of warming and permafrost destabilization. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Radiocarbon in the Anthropocene'.}, }
@article {pmid37806274, year = {2023}, author = {Ikhumhen, HO and Fang, Q and Lu, S and Meilana, L and Raimundo Lopes, ND}, title = {Investigating socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change via remote sensing and a data-driven ranking algorithm.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {347}, number = {}, pages = {119254}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119254}, pmid = {37806274}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Remote Sensing Technology ; *Climate Change ; Spatial Analysis ; Algorithms ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {The necessity for extensive historical data, variables, and weight determination still presents challenges and complexity, notwithstanding the growth in research on socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change. In order to fill in these gaps, this study used China's Fujian Province as a case study to propose a unique strategic approach for studying socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change from 2000 to 2020 by utilizing remote sensing and the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In a GIS scenario, this method employs a comprehensive framework with a wide variety of indicators and a data-driven ranking algorithm. The findings of this study revealed a moderate degree of socio-ecological vulnerability throughout the coast, with significant regional heterogeneity in its spatial distribution. Furthermore, throughout the course of the two-decade, the highly vulnerable zones expanded by 6.04%, outpacing the low-risk areas by 1116 km[2] (61.41%) and 2066 km[2] (123.39%), respectively, with the majority of the increase taking place in Fuzhou and Ningde. These changes in vulnerability were shown to be principally influenced by changes in vegetation, precipitation, GDP, and land use (LULC). The major influence of precipitation was highlighted further in the spatial autocorrelation analysis, which demonstrated a close correlation between growing socio-ecological vulnerability and increased precipitation. To conclude, this study's methodology differs from other socio-ecological vulnerability studies in that it is flexible and self-sufficient, offering users a choice of weight application. It also gives a more useful, accurate, and suggestive model to enable decision-makers or stakeholders build strategies or ideas for constructing more resilient coastal systems.}, }
@article {pmid37805887, year = {2023}, author = {Patel M, G and Nidhi, - and Gupta, K and Gupta, M and Gupta, S and Krupa, S}, title = {THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INFECTIOUS DISEASES: A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES, WATER-BORNE DISEASES, AND PUBLIC HEALTH STRATEGIES.}, journal = {Georgian medical news}, volume = {}, number = {340-341}, pages = {136-142}, pmid = {37805887}, issn = {1512-0112}, mesh = {Humans ; Public Health ; Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; *Vector Borne Diseases ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change is long-term modifications to weather patterns and a rise in extreme weather events. It might modify the hazard to human health and exacerbate current problems. The article explores the scientific data in a description of the effects of Infectious diseases in humans and climate change. It identifies scientific advancements and gaps in potential responses from human civilization and how it might prepare for the changes that come with it by adjusting to them. The impact reflects three aspects, such as climate variables, selected infectious diseases, and infectious disease components. This study demonstrates how vulnerable people are to any ill consequences that climate change may have on their health. Humans can actively influence controllable correlated health impacts by taking proactive measures, such as increasing our understanding of the detrimental effects associated with specific diseases and the patterns in climate change. We can also carefully distribute technology and resources, encouraging exercise and public awareness. It is advised to take the following adaption measures: Considering how infectious diseases and climate change are not the only things that science has discovered and create locally efficient early warning systems for those effects to produce more scientific justifications and go beyond scientific reports. Improve prediction of the spatiotemporal processes behind climate change and changes in infectious illnesses connected at different temporal and spatial scales.}, }
@article {pmid37805813, year = {2023}, author = {Saadene, Y and Salhi, A and Mliki, F and Bouslama, Z}, title = {Climate change and cutaneous leishmaniasis in the province of Ghardaïa in Algeria: A model-based approach to predict disease outbreaks.}, journal = {Annals of Saudi medicine}, volume = {43}, number = {5}, pages = {263-276}, pmid = {37805813}, issn = {0975-4466}, mesh = {Humans ; Algeria/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Retrospective Studies ; *Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/epidemiology ; Incidence ; Disease Outbreaks ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease prevalent in Algeria since 2000. The disease has significant impacts on affected communities, including morbidity and social stigma.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: Investigate the association between environmental factors and the incidence of CL in the province of Gharda&#xef;a and assess the predictive capacity of these factors for disease occurrence.<br><br>DESIGN: Retrospective SETTING: The study area included both urban and rural communities.<br><br>METHODS: We analyzed a dataset on CL in the province of Gharda&#xef;a, Algeria, spanning from 2000 to 2020. The dataset included climatic variables such as temperature, average humidity, wind speed, rainfall, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using generalized additive models, we examined the relationships and interactions between these variables to predict the emergence of CL in the study area.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The identification of the most significant environmental factors associated with the incidence and the predicted incidence rates of CL in the province of Gharda&#xef;a, Algeria.<br><br>252 monthly observations of both climatic and epidemiological variables.<br><br>RESULTS: Relative humidity and wind speed were the primary climatic factors influencing the occurrence of CL epidemics in Gharda&#xef;a, Algeria. Additionally, NDVI was a significant environmental factor associated with CL incidence. Surprisingly, temperature did not show a strong effect on CL occurrence, while rainfall was not statistically significant. The final fitted model predictions were highly correlated with real cases.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study provides a better understanding of the long-term trend in how environmental and climatic factors contribute to the emergence of CL. Our results can inform the development of effective early warning systems for preventing the transmission and emergence of vector-borne diseases.<br><br>LIMITATIONS: Incorporating additional reservoir statistics such as rodent density and a human development index in the region could improve our understanding of disease transmission.}, }
@article {pmid37805208, year = {2023}, author = {Hudson-Peacock, N and Jones, L and Morgan, G and Newman, C and Smith, H}, title = {We need a public health campaign on climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {402}, number = {10409}, pages = {1234-1235}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01250-3}, pmid = {37805208}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Promotion ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid37805186, year = {2023}, author = {Mokhtar, K and Chuah, LF and Abdullah, MA and Oloruntobi, O and Ruslan, SMM and Albasher, G and Ali, A and Akhtar, MS}, title = {Assessing coastal bathymetry and climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems using Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {239}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {117314}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117314}, pmid = {37805186}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Satellite Imagery ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Water ; }, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems are facing heightened risks due to human-induced climate change, including rising water levels and intensified storm events. Accurate bathymetry data is crucial for assessing the impacts of these threats. Traditional data collection methods can be cost-prohibitive. This study investigates the feasibility of using freely accessible Landsat and Sentinel satellite imagery to estimate bathymetry and its correlation with hydrographic chart soundings in Port Klang, Malaysia. Through analysis of the blue and green spectral bands from the Landsat 8 and Sentinel 2 datasets, a bathymetry map of Port Klang's seabed is generated. The precision of this derived bathymetry is evaluated using statistical metrics like Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination. The results reveal a strong statistical connection (R[2] = 0.9411) and correlation (R[2] = 0.7958) between bathymetry data derived from hydrographic chart soundings and satellite imagery. This research not only advances our understanding of employing Landsat imagery for bathymetry assessment but also underscores the significance of such assessments in the context of climate change's impact on coastal ecosystems. The primary goal of this research is to contribute to the comprehension of Landsat imagery's utility in bathymetry evaluation, with the potential to enhance safety protocols in seaport terminals and provide valuable insights for decision-making concerning the management of coastal ecosystems amidst climate-related challenges. The findings of this research have practical implications for a wide range of stakeholders involved in coastal management, environmental protection, climate adaptation and disaster preparedness.}, }
@article {pmid37804144, year = {2024}, author = {Alak, G and Kara, A and Akköse, A and Gelen, SU and Tanas, &#x15e;T and Uçar, A and Parlak, V and Atamanalp, M}, title = {Effect of climate change on fillet quality and shelf-life of Oncorhynchus mykiss under controlled conditions.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {104}, number = {3}, pages = {1511-1520}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.13034}, pmid = {37804144}, issn = {1097-0010}, mesh = {Animals ; *Oncorhynchus mykiss ; Climate Change ; *Fatty Acids, Omega-3 ; Water ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Temperature, which affects numerous physiological processes, has been described as the 'main ecological factor' for fish. The aim of this modeling study is to explore the impact of climate-induced temperature changes on fish fillet quality and shelf life.<br><br>RESULTS: Temperature stress in rainbow trout affected ash and moisture, and inhibited myofibril fragmentation in the fillets. However, with the increase in temperature, there was a decrease in the total amount of saturated fatty acids (&#x2211;SFA) and there were significant increases in the total amount of omega 3 (&#x2211;n3) and 22:6n-3 (DHA). It was determined that temperature increase had a negative effect on color, texture, water-holding capacity, water activity, pH, lactic acid, and glycogen levels in fillets, and it had a positive effect by delaying microbial spoilage, especially in cold storage.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study suggest that the effects of climate change on product quality and shelf life in fish requires further research. It highlights knowledge gaps to guide future research in this emerging field. &#xa9; 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid37802536, year = {2023}, author = {Yarlagadda, K}, title = {How climate change is affecting child development.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {383}, number = {}, pages = {2189}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.p2189}, pmid = {37802536}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Child Development ; *Climate Change ; Child Welfare ; }, }
@article {pmid37802360, year = {2024}, author = {Dory, F and Nava, V and Spreafico, M and Orlandi, V and Soler, V and Leoni, B}, title = {Interaction between temperature and nutrients: How does the phytoplankton community cope with climate change?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {906}, number = {}, pages = {167566}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167566}, pmid = {37802360}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Phytoplankton/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Temperature ; Lakes/chemistry ; Eutrophication ; Nutrients ; China ; Phosphorus/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change and increasing nutrient concentrations are two major threats to lake ecosystems. Furthermore, warming is exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication in freshwaters. Facing both environmental challenges simultaneously is more urgent than ever to preserve and recover water quality and protect the remaining biodiversity. Here, we used long-term observational data to investigate the phytoplankton response to the interaction between temperature and nutrient variations in a deep mesotrophic subalpine lake (L. Iseo, Italy). Despite the existing management programs, we observed a deterioration of the physicochemical status of the lake between 1993 and 2021 in the water column. The average rate of temperature increase was 0.02 °C y[-1] across the studied period and accelerated after the last complete mixing events (2005 and 2006), particularly during the last decade (0.08 °C y[-1]). Water warming caused severe impacts on nutrient cycling, reflected by the overall increase in nutrient concentrations. The direct effect of warming was of great importance for phytoplankton, leading to an increase in total biovolume and a loss of diversity and promoting the dominance of Cyanobacteria. Nutrient variations, especially TN and the DSi:TP ratio, considerably structured the community composition. The modification of physicochemical parameters caused by the last complete mixing events led to a remarkable, long-term taxonomical and functional reorganization of the phytoplankton community. This study illustrates that phytoplankton in deep subalpine lakes will experience severe changes in the upcoming years, and that complete mixing events may constitute a threshold for community transformation. Our results stress the importance of using powerful interpretative models with multifaceted long-term datasets to disentangle the pathways by which temperature and nutrients could regulate the phytoplankton community. Our conclusions will help to integrate climate change into mitigation strategies to preserve ecosystem structure and functions.}, }
@article {pmid37802357, year = {2024}, author = {Jha, PK and Zhang, N and Rijal, JP and Parker, LE and Ostoja, S and Pathak, TB}, title = {Climate change impacts on insect pests for high value specialty crops in California.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {906}, number = {}, pages = {167605}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167605}, pmid = {37802357}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Moths ; Larva ; Fruit ; Crops, Agricultural ; Polyglycolic Acid ; }, abstract = {California is a global leader in production and supply of walnuts and almonds, and the state is the largest producer of peaches in the U.S. These crops have an important contribution to the California's agricultural economy. Damages to these crops from lepidopteran pests, mainly from Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) (family: Tortricidae), Peach twig borer (Anarsia lineatella) (family: Gelechiidae) and Oriental fruit moth (Grapholita molesta) (family: Tortricidae), are still high, despite the improvement in pest management activities. Given that temperature increase can directly impact the rate of growth and development of these pests, it is important to understand to what extent dynamics of these pests will change in future in California. The objective of this study was to quantify changes in the biofix, lifecycle length, and number of generations for these pests for the entire Central Valley of California. Using a well-established growing-degree days (GDD) model calibrated and validated using observations from orchards of California, and climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) General Circulation Models, we found that biofix dates of these pests are expected to shift earlier by up to 28 days, and length of generations is expected to be shortened by up to 19 days, and up to 1.4 extra generations of these pests can be added by the end of the century depending on the scenario. Results from this work would enable industries to prioritize development of practices that are more effective in the long run, such as developing better cultural and biological pest solutions and insect tolerant varieties. Growers and researchers can take proactive actions to minimize future risks associated with these damaging pests. This work can be scalable to other pests and regions to understand regional dynamics of damaging agricultural pests under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37801626, year = {2023}, author = {Chang, JH and Lee, YL and Chang, LT and Chang, TY and Hsiao, TC and Chung, KF and Ho, KF and Kuo, HP and Lee, KY and Chuang, KJ and Chuang, HC}, title = {Climate change, air quality, and respiratory health: a focus on particle deposition in the lungs.}, journal = {Annals of medicine}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {2264881}, pmid = {37801626}, issn = {1365-2060}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; *Air Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis ; Lung ; }, abstract = {This review article delves into the multifaceted relationship between climate change, air quality, and respiratory health, placing a special focus on the process of particle deposition in the lungs. We discuss the capability of climate change to intensify air pollution and alter particulate matter physicochemical properties such as size, dispersion, and chemical composition. These alterations play a significant role in influencing the deposition of particles in the lungs, leading to consequential respiratory health effects. The review paper provides a broad exploration of climate change's direct and indirect role in modifying particulate air pollution features and its interaction with other air pollutants, which may change the ability of particle deposition in the lungs. In conclusion, climate change may play an important role in regulating particle deposition in the lungs by changing physicochemistry of particulate air pollution, therefore, increasing the risk of respiratory disease development.}, }
@article {pmid37801495, year = {2023}, author = {Kersten, O and Star, B and Krabberød, AK and Atmore, LM and Tørresen, OK and Anker-Nilssen, T and Descamps, S and Strøm, H and Johansson, US and Sweet, PR and Jakobsen, KS and Boessenkool, S}, title = {Hybridization of Atlantic puffins in the Arctic coincides with 20th-century climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {40}, pages = {eadh1407}, pmid = {37801495}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Norway ; Biota ; Nucleic Acid Hybridization ; }, abstract = {The Arctic is experiencing the fastest rates of global warming, leading to shifts in the distribution of its biota and increasing the potential for hybridization. However, genomic evidence of recent hybridization events in the Arctic remains unexpectedly rare. Here, we use whole-genome sequencing of contemporary and 122-year-old historical specimens to investigate the origin of an Arctic hybrid population of Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) on Bjørnøya, Norway. We show that the hybridization between the High Arctic, large-bodied subspecies F. a. naumanni and the temperate, smaller-sized subspecies F. a. arctica began as recently as six generations ago due to an unexpected southward range expansion of F. a. naumanni. Moreover, we find a significant temporal loss of genetic diversity across Arctic and temperate puffin populations. Our observations provide compelling genomic evidence of the impacts of recent distributional shifts and loss of diversity in Arctic communities during the 20th century.}, }
@article {pmid37800660, year = {2024}, author = {Alvarez-Elias, AC and Brenner, BM and Luyckx, VA}, title = {Climate change and its influence in nephron mass.}, journal = {Current opinion in nephrology and hypertension}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {102-109}, pmid = {37800660}, issn = {1473-6543}, mesh = {Adult ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Pregnancy ; Female ; Climate Change ; *Premature Birth ; *Hypertension/epidemiology ; *Pre-Eclampsia ; Nephrons ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The consequences of climate change, including heat and extreme weather events impact kidney function in adults and children. The impacts of climate change on kidney development during gestation and thereby on kidney function later in life have been poorly described. Clinical evidence is summarized to highlight possible associations between climate change and nephron mass.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Pregnant women are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, being less able to thermoregulate, more sensitive to the effects of dehydration, and more susceptible to infections. Exposure to heat, wildfire smoke, drought, floods and climate-related infections are associated with low birth weight, preterm birth and preeclampsia. These factors are associated with reduced nephron numbers, kidney dysfunction and higher blood pressures in offspring in later life. Exposure to air pollution is associated with higher blood pressures in children and has variable effects on estimated glomerular filtration rate.<br><br>SUMMARY: Climate change has important impacts on pregnant women and their unborn children. Being born too small or too soon is associated with life-time risk of kidney disease. Climate change may therefore have a dual effect of impacting fetal kidney development and contributing to cumulative postnatal kidney injury. The impact on population kidney health of future generations may be significant.}, }
@article {pmid37800371, year = {2024}, author = {Wu, J and Gu, Y and Sun, K and Xing, X and Ma, X}, title = {Impacts of climate change on winter wheat net primary production: the regulatory role of crop management.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {104}, number = {3}, pages = {1420-1430}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.13024}, pmid = {37800371}, issn = {1097-0010}, support = {2021YFD1900600//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 52179048//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Triticum ; *Climate Change ; Agriculture ; Temperature ; Cold Temperature ; China ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3HP) is the main agricultural area in China. Although climate change (CC) and crop management (CM) are considered factors affecting the winter wheat net primary production (NPP) in this region, their effects remain unclear. In the present study, we evaluated the relative contributions of CC and CM to winter wheat aboveground NPP (ANPP) in the 3HP and the relationships between climatic factors and ANPP using the first-order difference method from 2000 to 2020.<br><br>RESULTS: CM had a greater influence on the ANPP of winter wheat than did CC. However, the relative contribution of CM to ANPP gradually decreased in humid and dry sub-humid regions with the development of winter wheat. Furthermore, in areas characterized by low temperatures and limited precipitation, CC became the dominant factor contributing to ANPP, indicating that varieties resilient to drought and cold should be selected in these regions. Minimum and average temperatures were the dominant factors driving spatiotemporal variations in ANPP during the early stage of winter wheat growth, whereas maximum temperature constrained growth throughout the winter wheat growth cycle. When winter wheat entered the vigorous growth stage, precipitation and solar radiation replaced temperature as the driving factors influencing winter wheat growth.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results of the present study provide guidance for optimizing winter wheat crop management in the 3HP. &#xa9; 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid37799554, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, X and Zhang, Y}, title = {The impact of vegetation phenology changes on the relationship between climate and net primary productivity in Yunnan, China, under global warming.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1248482}, pmid = {37799554}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate influences net primary productivity (NPP) either directly or indirectly via phenology. Therefore, clarifying the indirect effects of climate on NPP through phenology is of utmost importance. However, the underlying mechanisms by which phenology indirectly affects NPP are unknown and poorly studied. Based on different structural equation models, this study analyzed the influence of phenology on the relationship between climate and NPP, and the results were as follows: (1) Temperature and solar radiation directly affect the end and beginning of the growing season, respectively, while precipitation indirectly affects the beginning of the growing season. (2) Spring phenology mainly affects the relationship between subsequent precipitation and net primary productivity, while autumn phenology mainly affects the relationship between temperature and net primary productivity. (3) Solar radiation is the most important direct influence factor on phenology and NPP, and the relationship between it and NPP is hardly disturbed by vegetation phenology. This research holds significant scientific and applied values in enhancing our understanding of the effects of global warming, forecasting ecosystem responses in the future, and formulating adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid37799537, year = {2023}, author = {Bergmann, KC and Brehler, R and Endler, C and Höflich, C and Kespohl, S and Plaza, M and Raulf, M and Standl, M and Thamm, R and Traidl-Hoffmann, C and Werchan, B}, title = {Impact of climate change on allergic diseases in Germany.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 4}, pages = {76-102}, pmid = {37799537}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Allergic diseases, especially inhalation allergies, have reached epidemic levels and environmental factors play an important role in their development. Climate change influences the occurrence, frequency, and severity of allergic diseases.<br><br>METHODS: The contents of this article were selected by the authors and developed section by section according to their expertise and the current state of knowledge. The sections were then discussed and agreed upon amongst all authors.<br><br>RESULTS: The article highlights direct and indirect effects of climate change on allergies. It goes into detail about the connections between climate change and (new) pollen allergens as well as (new) occupational inhalation allergens, explains the effects of climate change on the clinical picture of atopic dermatitis, discusses the connections between air pollutants and allergies, and provides information about the phenomenon of thunderstorm asthma.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for action in the field of pollen and fungal spore monitoring, allergy and sensitisation monitoring, urban planning from an allergological perspective, and changes in the working environment, among others.}, }
@article {pmid37799536, year = {2023}, author = {Gebhardt, N and van Bronswijk, K and Bunz, M and Müller, T and Niessen, P and Nikendei, C}, title = {Scoping review of climate change and mental health in Germany - Direct and indirect impacts, vulnerable groups, resilience factors.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 4}, pages = {122-149}, pmid = {37799536}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a major threat to human health and has direct and indirect impacts on the human psyche.<br><br>METHODS: To assess the state of knowledge on the impact of climate change on mental health in Germany, a scoping review was conducted for the focus topics extreme weather events, temperature increase, intra-psychological processing, sociological aspects, and resilience factors. Ten studies met the inclusion criteria of the searches in the databases Academic Search Complete, CINAHL, PubPsych, PubMed, and PsychInfo. The majority of the studies looked at correlative relationships in a cross-sectional design.<br><br>RESULTS: There are indications of an accumulation of psychiatric disorders after extreme weather events; in addition, the risk of suicide increases with higher temperatures and it appears there is an increase in aggressive behaviour. The majority of people surveyed in Germany report concerns about the consequences of climate change, although these currently rarely lead to clinically significant impairments in mental health.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the evidence for Germany must be classified as insufficient. In addition to the absolute priority of climate protection (mitigation) by reducing emissions, there is a particular need for additional research with a focus on vulnerable groups and possibilities for prevention and adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid37799535, year = {2023}, author = {Baldermann, C and Laschewski, G and Grooß, JU}, title = {Impact of climate change on non-communicable diseases caused by altered UV radiation.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 4}, pages = {57-75}, pmid = {37799535}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: UV radiation can cause serious skin and eye diseases, especially cancers. UV-related skin cancer incidences have been increasing for decades. The determining factor for this development is the individual UV exposure. Climate change-induced changes in atmospheric factors can influence individual UV exposure.<br><br>METHODS: On the basis of a topic-specific literature research, a review paper was prepared and supplemented by as yet unpublished results of the authors' own studies. The need for scientific research and development is formulated as well as primary prevention recommendations.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change alters the factors influencing UV irradiance and annual UV dose in Germany. First evaluations of satellite data for Germany show an increase in mean peak UV irradiance and annual UV dose for the last decade compared to the last three decades.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The climate change-related influences on individual UV exposure and the associated individual disease incidence cannot yet be reliably predicted due to considerable uncertainties. However, the current UV-related burden of disease already requires primary preventive measures to prevent UV-related diseases.}, }
@article {pmid37799533, year = {2023}, author = {Breitner-Busch, S and Mücke, HG and Schneider, A and Hertig, E}, title = {Impact of climate change on non-communicable diseases due to increased ambient air pollution.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 4}, pages = {103-121}, pmid = {37799533}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impacts of air pollutants on health range from short-term health impairments to hospital admissions and deaths. Climate change is leading to an increase in air pollution.<br><br>METHODS: This article addresses, based on selected literature, the relationship between climate change and air pollutants, the health effects of air pollutants and their modification by air temperature, with a focus on Germany.<br><br>RESULTS: Poor air quality increases the risk of many diseases. Climate change is causing, among other things, more periods of extreme heat with simultaneously increased concentrations of air pollutants. The interactions between air temperature and air pollutants, as well as their combined effects on human health, have not yet been sufficiently studied. Limit, target, and guideline values are of particular importance for health protection.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Measures to reduce air pollutants and greenhouse gases must be more strictly implemented. An essential step towards improving air quality is setting stricter air quality limit values in Europe. Prevention and adaptation measures should be accelerated in Germany, as they contribute to climate-resilient and sustainable healthcare systems.}, }
@article {pmid37798033, year = {2023}, author = {Akore Yeboah, E and Adegboye, ARA and Kneafsey, R}, title = {Perceptions, attitudes, awareness and perspectives towards sustainability practices and climate change among nurses: a systematic review protocol.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e071965}, pmid = {37798033}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; *Health Personnel ; Humanities ; Research Design ; Review Literature as Topic ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change has been described as the most significant threat to humanity and human health to have emerged this century. It is widely accepted that contemporary human activities are the major causes of climate change. It is also acknowledged that damaging human activities could be amenable to change through proactive environmental behaviours. Healthcare professionals have the potential to promote climate advocacy and mitigation through collective effort and individual actions. However, research suggests that nurses may not be aware of their potential to effect positive action. This review will synthesise evidence regarding nurses' perceptions, attitudes, awareness and perspectives towards sustainable nursing practices and climate change.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) methodology for mixed-methods systematic reviews will be applied to this proposed systematic review. It will be reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. CINAHL, PsycINFO, SCOPUS and PubMed databases will be searched. Data appraisal will be completed using the JBI and Mixed Methods Assessment Tool critical appraisal tool. Data synthesis and integration will follow the JBI convergent integrated approach.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: In compliance with university ethics requirements for secondary research and postgraduate researchers, ethical approval will be sought from the Coventry University Ethics Committee, UK. Dissemination of findings will be achieved through peer-review publications, conference presentations and seminars with local, national and international audiences.}, }
@article {pmid37795238, year = {2023}, author = {Muzerengi, F and Gandidzanwa, CP and Chirubvu, L}, title = {Impacts of climate change on household food security in Matande communal lands, Mwenezi district in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {1499}, pmid = {37795238}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Mwenezi district is a drought prone area characterised by high temperatures, droughts, rainfall deficit, crop failures and chronic food deficiencies. Rainfed agriculture can no longer be sustained without any innovations. The study explored the impacts of climate change on household food security among the vulnerable populations of Matande communal lands, Mwenezi district in Zimbabwe. The study is guided by the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF). An exploratory sequential research design was adopted, and a total of 78 respondents were selected from the population of 371 households using purposive and cluster sampling techniques. Data collection was triangulated through the use of household survey, focus group discussions, key informant interviews and observations. The thematic approach and SPSS software were used to analyse qualitative and quantitative data, respectively. Results demonstrated that climate change propelled increases of pests and diseases for both livestock and crops, reduction of meals uptake per day, biodiversity loss and dwindled crop production. Livestock increases were recorded despite the changing climate shows a nexus with food insecurity. The research called for the adoption of drought-tolerant crops, capacity building through climate change resilience programmes, livestock centric in diversification, improved formal markets for livestock and tapping of underground water for irrigation and other purposes to complement existing water bodies to prevent them drying up early.<br><br>CONTRIBUTION: There is deepening aridification in Mwenezi district because of climate change resulting in the continuous obliteration for the worst of agro-ecological regions iv and v reclassified into a and b. This confirmed the heterogeneity of various climatic conditions and variability within the same geographical context. However, vulnerability continues to be generalised into regions. The study investigates the impacts of climate change typical to Matande communal lands with the view to generate knowledge relevant to review adaptation practices specific to the researched area in order to escalate community resilience.}, }
@article {pmid37794158, year = {2023}, author = {Jamal, S}, title = {Climate change pits clan against clan in drought-hit Somalia.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-03124-0}, pmid = {37794158}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37794155, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Deep learning shows how global warming affects daily rainfall.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37794155}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37794146, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Climate change and habitat loss push amphibians closer to extinction.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37794146}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37793683, year = {2023}, author = {Shaw, C and Macmillan, A}, title = {Overcoming resistance and rebalancing power: shifting gears for cross sectoral collaboration on transport and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {383}, number = {}, pages = {2215}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.p2215}, pmid = {37793683}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Sulfadiazine ; }, }
@article {pmid37793591, year = {2023}, author = {A K, P and M, M and Rajamanickam, S and Sivarethinamohan, S and Gaddam, MKR and Velusamy, P and R, G and Ravindiran, G and Gurugubelli, TR and Muniasamy, SK}, title = {Impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on aquatic ecosystem - A review.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {238}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {117233}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117233}, pmid = {37793591}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Anthropogenic Effects ; Quality of Life ; Food Chain ; }, abstract = {All living things depend on their natural environment, either directly or indirectly, for their high quality of life, growth, nutrition, and development. Due to the fast emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), the Earth's climate system is being negatively impacted by global warming. Stresses caused by climate change, such as rising and hotter seas, increased droughts and floods, and acrid waters, threaten the world's most populated areas and aquatic ecosystems. As a result, the aquatic ecosystems of the globe are quickly reaching hazardous conditions. Marine ecosystems are essential parts of the world's environment and provide several benefits to the human population, such as water for drinking and irrigation, leisure activities, and habitat for commercially significant fisheries. Although local human activities have influenced coastal zones for millennia, it is still unclear how these impacts and stresses from climate change may combine to endanger coastal ecosystems. Recent studies have shown that rising levels of greenhouse gases are causing ocean systems to experience conditions not seen in several million years, which may cause profound and irreversible ecological shifts. Ocean productivity has declined, food web dynamics have changed, habitat-forming species are less common, species ranges have changed, and disease prevalence has increased due to human climate change. We provide an outline of the interaction between global warming and the influence of humans along the coastline. This review aims to demonstrate the significance of long-term monitoring, the creation of ecological indicators, and the applications of understanding how aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem functioning respond to global warming. This review discusses the effects of current climate change on marine biological processes both now and in the future, describes present climate change concerning historical change, and considers the potential roles aquatic systems could play in mitigating the effects of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37792919, year = {2023}, author = {Lin, YP and Lu, CY and Lee, CR}, title = {The Past Contribution and Future Fate of Genetic Variants under Climate Change in an Island Population of Musa itinerans.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {202}, number = {4}, pages = {558-570}, doi = {10.1086/726015}, pmid = {37792919}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {*Musa/genetics ; Climate Change ; Gene Frequency ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Mutation ; }, abstract = {AbstractGenetic variation within species is crucial for sessile species to adapt to novel environments when facing dramatic climate changes. However, the debate continues whether standing ancestral variation adaptive to current environmental variability is sufficient to guarantee future suitability. Using wild banana Musa itinerans, we investigated the relative contribution of standing ancestral variation versus new mutations to environmental adaptation and inferred their future fate. On the continental island of Taiwan, local populations immigrated from the Southeast Asian continent during the ice age and have been isolated since then. This allows the classification of genetic variants into standing ancestral variation (polymorphic in Taiwan and the continent) and new mutations (polymorphic only in Taiwan). For temperature-related variables where Taiwan is mainly within the ancestral climatic range, standing ancestral variation had a slightly stronger association than new mutations. New mutations were more important for precipitation-related variables, where northeastern Taiwan had much more winter rainfall than most of continental Southeast Asia. Upon future climate change, new mutations showed higher genetic offset in regions of abrupt transition between allele frequency and local environments, suggesting their greater spatial heterogeneity of future vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid37792381, year = {2023}, author = {Cuijpers, P and Kumar, M and Karyotaki, E}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health-Time to Act Now.}, journal = {JAMA psychiatry}, volume = {80}, number = {12}, pages = {1183-1184}, doi = {10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2023.3413}, pmid = {37792381}, issn = {2168-6238}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Mental Health ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid37789933, year = {2023}, author = {Katzman, JG and Herring, D and Wheat, S and Groves, RJ and Kazhe-Dominguez, B and Martin, C and Norsworthy, K and Liu, J and Lord, S and Tomedi, LE}, title = {Climate Change ECHO: Telementoring to Improve Climate Literacy for Health Professionals.}, journal = {AJPM focus}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {100051}, pmid = {37789933}, issn = {2773-0654}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is a global public health crisis. Most clinicians and public health professionals do not receive adequate education to manage and communicate climate-related health impacts to their patients.<br><br>METHODS: From July 2021 to February 2022, the Project ECHO Climate Change and Human Health program completed 22 weekly trainings for health professionals. These virtual telementoring sessions were designed to improve both knowledge and self-efficacy about climate-related health impacts and climate change&#x2012;related communication skills.<br><br>RESULTS: Between July 2021 and February 2022, a total of 804 unique participants (from 44 states and 25 countries) attended the sessions. Participants were nurses (24.7%), physicians (16.8%), and public health professionals (8.5%). They completed weekly Zoom polls measuring their knowledge and self-efficacy. On average, participants strongly agreed or agreed that they had learned skills taught in each session (average percentage of those who strongly agreed or agreed=94.6%, range=66.7%-100.0%). Participants (31%) also completed a weekly postsession survey. A total of 91% rated the sessions as excellent or very good regarding evidenced-basis, and 89% rated sessions as excellent or very good regarding improved communication skills with patients and colleagues.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Given the global climate crisis, the Climate Change and Human Health ECHO is successfully building resources and capacity for clinicians and public health professionals.}, }
@article {pmid37788856, year = {2023}, author = {Sheather, J}, title = {One Health and climate change-we need to get the ethics right.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {383}, number = {}, pages = {2177}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.p2177}, pmid = {37788856}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *One Health ; Morals ; }, }
@article {pmid37788854, year = {2023}, author = {Arasaradnam, R}, title = {The impact of climate change on health is an immediate danger.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {383}, number = {}, pages = {2281}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.p2281}, pmid = {37788854}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid37788848, year = {2023}, author = {Issa, R and Thomas, A and Firaq, N and Wyns, A}, title = {Loss and damage responses to climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {383}, number = {}, pages = {2182}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.p2182}, pmid = {37788848}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Physical Therapy Modalities ; }, }
@article {pmid37788776, year = {2024}, author = {Wang, H and Deng, Y and Yang, Y and Chen, M and Wang, X and Tuo, Y}, title = {Future projections of thermal regimes and mixing characteristics in a monomictic reservoir under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {906}, number = {}, pages = {167527}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167527}, pmid = {37788776}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Stratified structures are basic physical characteristics of lakes and reservoirs, which play important roles in vertical convection and mixing processes. Global warming is expected to alter the thermal regimes and stratified characteristics of lakes and reservoirs, leading to potential environmental risks and ecological problems. In this study, we used a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to explore the response characteristics of the thermal regime to climate change in the Xiluodu Reservoir. The study is conducted based on four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). The results show that the projected surface water temperature of the reservoir will significantly increase (0.13 °C/10a-0.34 °C/10a) from 2022 to 2099, and the warming rate of the water in the epilimnion and thermocline will be greater than that in the hypolimnion, leading to enhanced vertical stratification in the reservoir. The stratification stability index (SI) will increase by 14.4 % under RCP 8.5 compared to that under RCP 2.6. The main responses of the reservoir to climate change are earlier start date and later end date of stratification, which may increase the duration of hypoxia in the hypolimnion and promote the succession of planktonic algal communities. The withdrawal water temperature in the reservoir will significantly increase under the climate warming scenarios (0.03 °C/10a-0.22 °C/10a). Furthermore, our research results indicate that selective withdrawal is still needed to mitigate the adverse effects of cold water from the reservoir during the fish spawning period under the strongest warming scenario, and can also be an effective adaptive management strategy to regulate thermal stability in the reservoir. This study provides a scientific and theoretical reference for the sustainable management of similar deep monomictic reservoirs under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37788599, year = {2023}, author = {Ezell, JM}, title = {Climate Change and the Opioid Epidemic.}, journal = {Journal of addiction medicine}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {500-502}, doi = {10.1097/ADM.0000000000001201}, pmid = {37788599}, issn = {1935-3227}, mesh = {Humans ; Analgesics, Opioid/adverse effects ; Climate Change ; Opioid Epidemic ; *Opioid-Related Disorders/epidemiology ; Fentanyl ; *Drug Overdose/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Ongoing assessments by climate scientists, including a recent report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, punctuate the pronounced effect that climate change is poised to have in the near future on the health and well-being of humans-particularly those with low socioeconomic status-throughout the world. To this end, to date, very limited scholarly attention has been placed on the effects that climate change may have on people who use drugs (PWUDs), in particular those with opioid use disorder, and assessed their structural and social determinants of climate change vulnerability. Since COVID-19, which has key lessons to offer on climate change's potential effects on PWUDs, the opioid epidemic has been rapidly accelerating in terms of its socioeconomic, racial, and geographic reach. The opioid epidemic has been further deepened by increasing fentanyl contamination and co-use with stimulants such as methamphetamine and (crack) cocaine, spurring a heavy increase in overdose deaths. These trends highlight a looming confrontation between the world's complex overdose crisis and its equally intensifying climate emergency. This piece contextualizes the specter of harms that climate change is likely to cultivate against PWUDs and offers strategies for mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid37787079, year = {2023}, author = {Goldwert, D and Dev, AS and Broos, HC and Broad, K and Timpano, KR}, title = {The impact of anxiety and intolerance of uncertainty on climate change distress, policy support, and pro-environmental behaviour.}, journal = {The British journal of clinical psychology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/bjc.12441}, pmid = {37787079}, issn = {0144-6657}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: As the threat of climate change continues to grow, bolstering individual-level support for climate change initiatives is crucial. More research is needed to better understand how individual difference factors, such as climate change anxiety and intolerance of uncertainty (IU), may shape how people perceive climate change and respond to climate change messaging. To date, the majority of published studies have not taken these individual difference factors into consideration, and IU has been particularly neglected in the climate change literature. This study examined the independent effects of climate change anxiety and IU on three climate change-related outcomes: climate-related distress, support for climate change policies, and behavioural engagement.<br><br>METHODS: Participants were Florida residents (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;441) who completed an online survey, including measures of climate change anxiety and IU. Participants then watched a video describing climate change consequences and completed three outcome measures: post-video distress, climate change policy support, and behavioural engagement.<br><br>RESULTS: Controlling for demographic covariates, both climate change anxiety (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;.43, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001) and IU (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;.27, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001) were associated with greater post-video distress, but only IU independently predicted greater policy support (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;.10, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;.034) and behavioural engagement (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;.12, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;.017).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that IU may be an important factor in promoting pro-environmental behaviour and policy support, but climate change anxiety may increase emotional distress without boosting meaningful behaviours or support. Our findings highlight the potential influence of cognitive factors on climate change engagement and suggest that invoking uncertainty rather than anxiety may be more effective in catalysing effective environmental engagement.}, }
@article {pmid37786322, year = {2023}, author = {Beaty, F and Gehman, AM and Brownlee, G and Harley, CDG}, title = {Not just range limits: Warming rate and thermal sensitivity shape climate change vulnerability in a species range center.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {104}, number = {12}, pages = {e4183}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.4183}, pmid = {37786322}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {//Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //Mitacs/ ; //Pacific Northwest Shell Club/ ; //Tula Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Temperature ; *Ecosystem ; Seawater ; British Columbia ; }, abstract = {Climate change manifests unevenly across space and time and produces complex patterns of stress for ecological systems. Species can also show substantial among-population variability in response to environmental change across their geographic range due to evolutionary processes. Explanatory factors or their proxies, such as temperature and latitude, help parse these sources of environmental and intraspecific variability; however, overemphasizing latitudinal trends can obscure the role of local environmental conditions in shaping population vulnerability to climate change. Focusing on the geographic center of a species range to disentangle latitude, we test the hypothesis that populations from warmer regions of a species range are more vulnerable to ocean warming. We conducted a mesocosm experiment and field reciprocal transplant with four populations of a marine snail, Nucella lamellosa, from two regions in British Columbia, Canada, that differ in thermal characteristics: the Central Coast, a cool region, and the Strait of Georgia, one of the warmest regions of this species' range and one that is warming faster than the Central Coast. Populations from the Strait of Georgia experienced growth reductions at contemporary summertime seawater temperatures in the laboratory and showed stark reductions in survival and growth under future seawater conditions and when outplanted at their native transplant sites. This indicates a high vulnerability to ocean warming, especially given the faster rate of ocean warming in this region. In contrast, populations from the cooler Central Coast demonstrated high performance at contemporary seawater temperatures and high growth and survival in projected future seawater temperatures and at their native outplant sites. Given their position within the geographic center of N. lamellosa's range, extirpation events in the vulnerable Strait of Georgia populations could compromise connectivity within the metapopulation and lead to gaps across this species' range. Overall, our study supports predictions that populations from warm regions of species ranges are more vulnerable to environmental warming, suggests that the Strait of Georgia and other inland or coastal seas could be focal points for climate change effects and ecological transformation, and emphasizes the importance of analyzing climate change vulnerability in the context of regional environmental data and throughout a species' range.}, }
@article {pmid37783873, year = {2023}, author = {Fleming, N}, title = {How damaged are coral reefs? I dive to investigate climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {622}, number = {7981}, pages = {210}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-03065-8}, pmid = {37783873}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; *Marine Biology/trends ; *Research Personnel ; }, }
@article {pmid37783692, year = {2023}, author = {Feng, C and Ye, G and Zeng, J and Zeng, J and Jiang, Q and He, L and Zhang, Y and Xu, Z}, title = {Sustainably developing global blue carbon for climate change mitigation and economic benefits through international cooperation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {6144}, pmid = {37783692}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Blue carbon is the carbon storage in vegetated coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass. It is gaining global attention as its role in climate change mitigation and local welfare growth. However, a global assessment on the long-term spatiotemporal sustainable development status of blue carbon has not been conducted, and the relations among blue carbon ecosystems, driving forces for climate change mitigation, and socioeconomic interventions for development capacity on a global scale are still unclear. Here, we constructed a blue carbon development index (BCDI), comprising three subsystems: driving force, resource endowment, and development capacity, to assess the sustainable development level of 136 coastal countries' blue carbon over 24 consecutive years and explore the relationship among subsystems. We further propose a cooperation model to explore the feasibility of global blue carbon cooperation and quantify benefit allocation to specific countries. The results showed an upward trend in BCDI scores with variations in regional performance over the past two decades, and we found a positive correlation between development capacity and blue carbon resource endowment. Based on the scenario simulations of global cooperation, we found that coastal countries could improve the global average BCDI score, add 2.96 Mt of annual carbon sequestration, and generate $136.34 million in 2030 under Global Deep Cooperation scenario compared with the Business-As-Usual scenario.}, }
@article {pmid37783333, year = {2023}, author = {Lengyel, E and Stenger-Kovács, C and Boros, G and Al-Imari, TJK and Novák, Z and Bernát, G}, title = {Anticipated impacts of climate change on the structure and function of phytobenthos in freshwater lakes.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {238}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {117283}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117283}, pmid = {37783333}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Lakes ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens surface waters worldwide, especially shallow lakes where one of the expected consequences is a sharp increase in their water temperatures. Phytobenthos is an essential, but still less studied component of aquatic ecosystems, and it would be important to learn more about how global warming will affect this community in shallow lakes. In this research, the effects of different climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, as intermediate and high emission scenarios) on the structure and function of the entire phytobenthos community using species- and trait-based approaches were experimentally investigated in an outdoor mesocosm system. Our results show that the forecasted 3 °C increase in temperature will already exert significant impacts on the benthic algal community by (1) altering its species and (2) trait composition (smaller cell size, lower abundance of colonial and higher of filamentous forms); (3) decreasing Shannon diversity; and (4) enhancing the variability of the community. Higher increase in the temperature (+5 °C) will imply more drastic alterations in freshwater phytobenthos by (1) inducing very high variability in species composition and compositional changes even in phylum level (towards higher abundance of Cyanobacteria and Chlorophyta at the expense of Bacillariophyta); (2) continuing shift in trait composition (benefits for smaller cell volume, filamentous life-forms, non-motile and weakly attached taxa); (3) further reducing the functional diversity; (4) increasing biofilm thickness (1.4 μm/°C) and (5) decreasing maximum quantum yield of photosystem II. In conclusion, already the intermediate emission scenario will predictably induce high risk in biodiversity issues, the high emission scenario will imply drastic impacts on the benthic algae endangering even the function of the ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid37783329, year = {2023}, author = {Waheed, A and Haxim, Y and Islam, W and Ahmad, M and Muhammad, M and Alqahtani, FM and Hashem, M and Salih, H and Zhang, D}, title = {Climate change reshaping plant-fungal interaction.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {238}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {117282}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117282}, pmid = {37783329}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; Temperature ; Plants ; Plant Diseases/microbiology ; }, abstract = {Plant diseases pose a severe threat to modern agriculture, necessitating effective and lasting control solutions. Environmental factors significantly shape plant ecology. Human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have led to global temperature rise, impacting various aspects, including carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, temperature, ozone (O3), and ultraviolet-B, all of which influence plant diseases. Altered pathogen ranges can accelerate disease transmission. This review explores environmental effects on plant diseases, with climate change affecting fungal biogeography, disease incidence, and severity, as well as agricultural production. Moreover, we have discussed how climate change influences pathogen development, host-fungal interactions, the emergence of new races of fungi, and the dissemination of emerging fungal diseases across the globe. The discussion about environment-mediated impact on pattern-triggered immunity (PTI), effector-triggered immunity (ETI), and RNA interference (RNAi) is also part of this review. In conclusion, the review underscores the critical importance of understanding how climate change is reshaping plant-fungal interactions. It highlights the need for continuous research efforts to elucidate the mechanisms driving these changes and their ecological consequences. As the global climate continues to evolve, it is imperative to develop innovative strategies for mitigating the adverse effects of fungal pathogens on plant health and food security.}, }
@article {pmid37783088, year = {2023}, author = {Weaver, D and Moyle, BD and McLennan, CL and Casali, L}, title = {Taming the wicked problem of climate change with "virtuous challenges": An integrated management heuristic.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {347}, number = {}, pages = {119136}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119136}, pmid = {37783088}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Heuristics ; *Climate Change ; Uncertainty ; Knowledge ; Leadership ; }, abstract = {Climate change is widely regarded as a "wicked problem" due to its complexity, interconnectedness, and the numerous stakeholders involved in finding a solution. The wickedness of climate change is further compounded by effects which are often nonlinear and uncertain, making it difficult to predict and manage its impacts. This paper builds on the growing body of knowledge on wicked problems by proposing an integrated heuristic that facilitates management in diverse economic and sociopolitical contexts by capturing the origins and dynamics of contemporary global socioenvironmental wicked problems and their potential resolution. The heuristic can also serve as the basis for a holistic wicked problem macro-theory. It is recognised that wicked problems such as climate change amplify into crisis states due to poverty and rigidity traps embedded within a system panarchy, which impede effective action for adaptation and mitigation. The concept of the "virtuous challenge" is embedded within the heuristic as a vital link in governance to enable effective leadership in the management of contemporary wicked problems through focused incremental transformation and a shift to an "agrowth" imperative. It is acknowledged that collaboration between stakeholders in the Global North and Global South is necessary for successful responses to virtuous challenges.}, }
@article {pmid37783087, year = {2023}, author = {Santos, RS and Zhang, Y and Cotrufo, MF and Hong, M and Oliveira, DMS and Damian, JM and Cerri, CEP}, title = {Simulating soil C dynamics under intensive agricultural systems and climate change scenarios in the Matopiba region, Brazil.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {347}, number = {}, pages = {119149}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119149}, pmid = {37783087}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Soil ; *Climate Change ; Carbon/analysis ; Brazil ; Biodiversity ; Temperature ; Agriculture/methods ; Poaceae ; }, abstract = {The recent agricultural expansion in the Matopiba region, Brazil's new agricultural frontier, has raised questions about the risk of increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) loss as large areas of native vegetation (NV; i.e., Cerrado biome) have been replaced by large-scale mechanized agriculture. Although sustainable managements, such as integrated crop-livestock (ICL) systems, are considered strategic to counterbalance the SOC loss associated with land-use change (LUC) while keeping food production, little is known about their long-term effects on SOC stocks in the Matopiba region. To this end, we used the DayCent model to simulate the effects of converting the management commonly used in this region, i.e., soybean-cotton rotation under no-tillage (NT), into ICL systems with distinct levels of intensification (e.g., crop rotations: soybean-pasture and soybean-pasture-cotton; soil and crop management: grass irrigation, scarification/harrowing, and length of grass cultivation) on long term SOC dynamics. Additionally, data from two projected climate scenarios: SSP2-4.5 [greenhouse gases emissions (GHG) will not change markedly over time and global temperature will increase by 2.0 °C by 2060] and SSP5-8.5 (marked changes in GHG emissions are expected to occur resulting in an increase of 2.4 and 4.4 °C in global temperature in the middle and at the end of the century) were included in our simulations to evaluate climate change effects on SOC dynamics in this region. Based on a 50-yr-time frame simulation, we observed that SOC stocks under ICL systems were, on average, 23% and 47% higher than in the NV (36.9 Mg ha[-1]) and soybean-cotton rotation under NT (30.9 Mg ha[-1]), respectively. Growing grasses interlaid with crops was crucial to increase SOC stocks even when disruptive soil practices were followed. Although the irrigation of grass resulted in an early increase of SOC stocks and a higher pasture stoking rate, it did not increase SOC stocks in the long term compared to non-irrigated treatments. The SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios had little effects on SOC dynamics in the simulated ICL systems. However, additional SOC loss (∼0.065 Mg ha[-1] yr[-1]) is predicted to occur if the current management is not improved. These findings can help guide management decisions for the Matopiba region, Brazil, to alleviate the anthropogenic pressure associated with agriculture development. More broadly, they confirm that crop-livestock integration in croplands is a successful strategy to regenerate SOC.}, }
@article {pmid37782947, year = {2023}, author = {Cantu, AG}, title = {"I Thought It Was Just About Heat": Using the Community as Partner Model to Support Climate Change Education.}, journal = {Nurse educator}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1097/NNE.0000000000001530}, pmid = {37782947}, issn = {1538-9855}, }
@article {pmid37780782, year = {2023}, author = {Ajibade, SM and Zaidi, A and Bekun, FV and Adediran, AO and Bassey, MA}, title = {A research landscape bibliometric analysis on climate change for last decades: Evidence from applications of machine learning.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {e20297}, pmid = {37780782}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is one of the greatest threats to human health, safety, and the environment. Given its current and future impacts, numerous studies have employed computational tools (e.g., machine learning, ML) to understand, mitigate, and adapt to CC. Therefore, this paper seeks to comprehensively analyze the research/publications landscape on the MLCC research based on published documents from Scopus. The high productivity and research impact of MLCC has produced highly cited works categorized as science, technology, and engineering to the arts, humanities, and social sciences. The most prolific author is Shamsuddin Shahid (based at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia), whereas the Chinese Academy of Sciences is the most productive affiliation on MLCC research. The most influential countries are the United States and China, which is attributed to the funding activities of the National Science Foundation and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), respectively. Collaboration through co-authorship in high-impact journals such as Remote Sensing was also identified as an important factor in the high rate of productivity among the most active stakeholders researching MLCC topics worldwide. Keyword co-occurrence analysis identified four major research hotspots/themes on MLCC research that describe the ML techniques, potential risky sectors, remote sensing, and sustainable development dynamics of CC. In conclusion, the paper finds that MLCC research has a significant socio-economic, environmental, and research impact, which points to increased discoveries, publications, and citations in the near future.}, }
@article {pmid37779103, year = {2024}, author = {Lin, S and Yao, D and Jiang, H and Qin, J and Feng, Z}, title = {Predicting current and future potential distributions of the greater bandicoot rat (Bandicota indica) under climate change conditions.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {80}, number = {2}, pages = {734-743}, doi = {10.1002/ps.7804}, pmid = {37779103}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {2023A1515010862//Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation/ ; 2022KJ113//Guangdong Modern Agriculture Industrial Technology System Generic Key Technology R&amp;D team/ ; R2021QD-016//Mentoring Program for Young Researchers of Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Science/ ; 32172435//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Murinae ; Ecosystem ; Agriculture ; China ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Rodent infestation is a global problem. Rodents cause huge harm to agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry around the world and spread various zoonoses. In this study, we simulated the potentially suitable habitats of Bandicota indica and predicted the impact of future climate change on its distribution under different socio-economic pathway scenarios of CMIP6 using a parameter-optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model.<br><br>RESULTS: The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value (0.958&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;0.006) after ten repetitions proved the high accuracy of the MaxEnt model. Model results show that the annual mean temperature (&#x2265;&#x2009;15.93&#x2009;&#xb0;C), isothermality (28.52-80.49%), annual precipitation (780.13-3863.13&#x2009;mm), precipitation of the warmest quarter (&#x2265;&#x2009;204.37&#x2009;mm), and nighttime light (&#x2265;&#x2009;3.38) were important limiting environmental variables for the distribution of B. indica. Under current climate conditions, the projected potential suitable habitats for B. indica were mainly in India, China, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam, which cover a total area of 301.70&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[4] &#x2009;km[2] . The potentially suitable areas of B. indica in the world will expand under different future climate change scenarios by 1.61-17.65%.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These results validate the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of B. indica and aid in understanding the linkages between B. indica niches and the relevant environment, thereby identifying urgent management areas where interventions may be necessary to develop feasible early warning and prevention strategies to protect against this rodent's spread. &#xa9; 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid37778065, year = {2023}, author = {Zhu, L and Yi, H and Su, H and Guikema, S and Liu, B}, title = {Impacts of climate change on cassava yield and lifecycle energy and greenhouse gas performance of cassava ethanol systems: An example from Guangxi Province, China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {347}, number = {}, pages = {119162}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119162}, pmid = {37778065}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Gases ; *Manihot ; Greenhouse Effect ; Ethanol ; Climate Change ; China ; Vegetables ; }, abstract = {Significant shock of climate change on crop yield will challenge the performance of bio-crop on substituting fossil energy to mitigate climate change. Taking cassava-to-ethanol system in Guangxi Province of South China as an example, we coupled a random forest (RF) model with 10 Global climate models (GCMs) outputs to predict the future cassava yields. Subsequently, the net energy value (NEV) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the cassava-to-ethanol system across varied topographies are assessed using a life cycle analysis. We demonstrate that the abrupt increases in temperatures are the primary contributors to declining yields. Notably, cassava yields in hilly regions decline more than those in plains and display greater variability among concentration pathway scenarios over time. Future NEV and GHG performance of cassava-to-ethanol will undergo significant decreases over time, especially within the high concentration pathway scenario (NEV decrease 28%, GHG increase 3.4% from 2006 to 2100). The performance reductions in hilly area are exacerbated by more harvest loss and labor and material inputs during the "field-to-wheel", negating its energy advantage over fossil fuels. Therefore, adopting a lower concentration pathway and favoring plantation in plains could maintain cassava-to-ethanol as a viable climate mitigation strategy. Our research also advances the methodological approach to climate change adaptation within the domain of life cycle assessment.}, }
@article {pmid37778060, year = {2023}, author = {Contins, M and Barroso, R and Paiva, PC and R Ventura, CR}, title = {Assessing the vulnerability of endangered and endemic brooding sea urchin Cassidulus mitis in response to climate change: Impacts on larvae and settlers in the southwestern Atlantic.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {192}, number = {}, pages = {106186}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106186}, pmid = {37778060}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Larva ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Sea Urchins ; Echinodermata ; }, abstract = {Echinoderms play important roles in marine ecosystems and exhibit high sensitivity to environmental changes. The echinoid Cassidulus mitis has been considered an endangered species due to its restricted geographic distribution and unique reproductive behavior, with an epibenthic lecithotrophic larva and offspring brooded among the female spines during initial development until the settler stage. We studied the effects of low salinities (30 and 26) and high temperatures (27 and 31 °C) on the early development of C. mitis in a predicted scenario of global climate change through four parameters: 1. survival and 2. chronology of larval development, and 3. survival and 4. growth of settlers. Both larvae and settlers of C. mitis can survive under these scenarios, probably due to the lecithotrophic and epibenthic larval characteristics and developmental strategies of this species. However, all experimental conditions affected at least one of the initial developmental studied parameters of C. mitis, potentially compromising the species' viability in a scenario of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37777859, year = {2023}, author = {Parums, DV}, title = {Editorial: Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2023 Guidelines for COPD, Including COVID-19, Climate Change, and Air Pollution.}, journal = {Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {e942672}, pmid = {37777859}, issn = {1643-3750}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Pandemics ; *COVID-19 ; *Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {The 2023 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) report includes relevant topics from the clinician's perspective and evidence published on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) since GOLD 2017. The World Health Organization (WHO) and GOLD 2023 have developed an updated definition of COPD as, "a heterogeneous lung condition characterized by chronic respiratory symptoms (dyspnea, cough, expectoration, exacerbations) due to abnormalities of the airway (bronchitis, bronchiolitis) and/or alveoli (emphysema) that cause persistent, often progressive, airflow obstruction." GOLD 2023 includes recommendations for COPD patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and acknowledges the role of reduced air quality in the etiology and progression of COPD. In May 2023, the GOLD Scientific Committee on Air Pollution and COPD reported that air pollution increasingly contributes to the pathogenesis of COPD. This Editorial aims to introduce the updated GOLD 2023 report in the context of climate change and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.}, }
@article {pmid37777630, year = {2023}, author = {Azrag, AGA and Obala, F and Tonnang, HEZ and Hogg, BN and Ndlela, S and Mohamed, SA}, title = {Predicting the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of the invasive tomato pinworm Phthorimaea absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae).}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {16477}, pmid = {37777630}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Lepidoptera ; Enterobius ; *Solanum lycopersicum ; Climate Change ; *Moths ; Larva ; }, abstract = {Phthorimaea absoluta (Meyrick) (= Tuta absoluta) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), is the most damaging insect pest threatening the production of tomato and other solanaceous vegetables in many countries. In this study, we predicted the risk of establishment and number of generations for P. absoluta in the current and future climatic conditions under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) of the years 2050 and 2070 using insect life cycle modelling (ILCYM) software. We used a temperature-dependent phenology model to project three risk indices viz., establishment risk index (ERI), generation index (GI), and activity index (AI) based on temperature data. The model projected large suitable areas for P. absoluta establishment in the Southern hemisphere under current and future climatic scenarios, compared to the Northern part. However, the risk of P. absoluta is expected to increase in Europe, USA, Southern Africa, and some parts of Asia in the future. Under current conditions, P. absoluta can complete between 6 and 16 generations per year in suitable areas. However, an increase in GI between 1 and 3 per year is projected for most parts of the world in the future, with an increase in AI between 1 and 4. Our results provide information on the risk of establishment of P. absoluta which could guide decision-makers to develop control strategies adapted for specific agro-ecological zones.}, }
@article {pmid37777132, year = {2023}, author = {Ruv Lemes, M and Sampaio, G and Garcia-Carreras, L and Fisch, G and Alves, LM and Bassett, R and Betts, R and Maksic, J and Shimizu, MH and Torres, RR and Guatura, M and Basso, LS and Bispo, PDC}, title = {Impacts on South America moisture transport under Amazon deforestation and 2 °C global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {905}, number = {}, pages = {167407}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167407}, pmid = {37777132}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Carbon Dioxide ; Brazil ; Water ; }, abstract = {The increase in greenhouse gasses (GHG) anthropogenic emissions and deforestation over the last decades have led to many chemical and physical changes in the climate system, affecting the atmosphere's energy and water balance. A process that could be affected is the Amazonian moisture transport in the South American continent (including La Plata basin), which is crucial to the southeast Brazilian water regime. The focus of our research is on evaluating how local (i.e. Amazon deforestation) and global forcings (increase of atmospheric GHG concentration) may modify this moisture transport under climate change scenarios. We used two coupled land-atmosphere models forced by CMIP6 sea surface temperatures to simulate these processes for two scenarios: i) increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) - RCP8.5 atmospheric levels (00DEF), and ii) total Amazon deforestation simultaneous with atmospheric CO2 levels increased (100DEF). These scenarios were compared with a control simulation, set with a constant CO2 of 388 ppm and present-day Amazon Forest cover. The 30-year Specific Warming Level 2 (SWL2) index evaluated from the simulations is set to be reached 2 years earlier due to Amazon deforestation. A reduction in precipitation was observed in the Amazon basin (-3.1 mm·day[-1]) as well as in La Plata Basin (-0.5 mm·day[-1]) due to reductions in the Amazon evapotranspiration (-0.9 mm·day[-1]) through a stomatal conductance decrease (00DEF) and land cover change (100DEF). In addition, the income moisture transport decreased (22 %) in the northern La Plata basin in both scenarios and model experiments. Our results indicated a worse scenario than previously found in the region. Both Amazon and La Plata hydrological regimes are connected (moisture and energy transport), indicating that a large-scale Amazon deforestation will have additional climate, economic and social implications for South America.}, }
@article {pmid37775690, year = {2023}, author = {Newman, R and Noy, I}, title = {The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {6103}, pmid = {37775690}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {Endeavour Whakahura//Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE)/ ; }, abstract = {Extreme weather events lead to significant adverse societal costs. Extreme Event Attribution (EEA), a methodology that examines how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions had changed the occurrence of specific extreme weather events, allows us to quantify the climate change-induced component of these costs. We collect data from all available EEA studies, combine these with data on the socio-economic costs of these events and extrapolate for missing data to arrive at an estimate of the global costs of extreme weather attributable to climate change in the last twenty years. We find that US[Formula: see text] 143 billion per year of the costs of extreme events is attributable to climatic change. The majority (63%), of this is due to human loss of life. Our results suggest that the frequently cited estimates of the economic costs of climate change arrived at by using Integrated Assessment Models may be substantially underestimated.}, }
@article {pmid37775681, year = {2023}, author = {Brush, M and Lewis, MA}, title = {Coupling Mountain Pine Beetle and Forest Population Dynamics Predicts Transient Outbreaks that are Likely to Increase in Number with Climate Change.}, journal = {Bulletin of mathematical biology}, volume = {85}, number = {11}, pages = {108}, pmid = {37775681}, issn = {1522-9602}, support = {18202//Genome Canada/ ; GAB-L20TF//Genome Alberta/ ; U22004//fRI Research/ ; PDF-568176-2022//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, abstract = {Mountain pine beetle (MPB) in Canada have spread well beyond their historical range. Accurate modelling of the long-term dynamics of MPB is critical for assessing the risk of further expansion and informing management strategies, particularly in the context of climate change and variable forest resilience. Most previous models have focused on capturing a single outbreak without tree replacement. While these models are useful for understanding MPB biology and outbreak dynamics, they cannot accurately model long-term forest dynamics. Past models that incorporate forest growth tend to simplify beetle dynamics. We present a new model that couples forest growth to MPB population dynamics and accurately captures key aspects of MPB biology, including a threshold for the number of beetles needed to overcome tree defenses and beetle aggregation that facilitates mass attacks. These mechanisms lead to a demographic Allee effect, which is known to be important in beetle population dynamics. We show that as forest resilience decreases, a fold bifurcation emerges and there is a stable fixed point with a non-zero MPB population. We derive conditions for the existence of this equilibrium. We then simulate biologically relevant scenarios and show that the beetle population approaches this equilibrium with transient boom and bust cycles with period related to the time of forest recovery. As forest resilience decreases, the Allee threshold also decreases. Thus, if host resilience decreases under climate change, for example under increased stress from drought, then the lower Allee threshold makes transient outbreaks more likely to occur in the future.}, }
@article {pmid37773969, year = {2023}, author = {Shyrokykh, K and Girnyk, M and Dellmuth, L}, title = {Short text classification with machine learning in the social sciences: The case of climate change on Twitter.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {e0290762}, pmid = {37773969}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; Machine Learning ; *Social Media ; Supervised Machine Learning ; }, abstract = {To analyse large numbers of texts, social science researchers are increasingly confronting the challenge of text classification. When manual labeling is not possible and researchers have to find automatized ways to classify texts, computer science provides a useful toolbox of machine-learning methods whose performance remains understudied in the social sciences. In this article, we compare the performance of the most widely used text classifiers by applying them to a typical research scenario in social science research: a relatively small labeled dataset with infrequent occurrence of categories of interest, which is a part of a large unlabeled dataset. As an example case, we look at Twitter communication regarding climate change, a topic of increasing scholarly interest in interdisciplinary social science research. Using a novel dataset including 5,750 tweets from various international organizations regarding the highly ambiguous concept of climate change, we evaluate the performance of methods in automatically classifying tweets based on whether they are about climate change or not. In this context, we highlight two main findings. First, supervised machine-learning methods perform better than state-of-the-art lexicons, in particular as class balance increases. Second, traditional machine-learning methods, such as logistic regression and random forest, perform similarly to sophisticated deep-learning methods, whilst requiring much less training time and computational resources. The results have important implications for the analysis of short texts in social science research.}, }
@article {pmid37770491, year = {2023}, author = {Zheng, Q and Ha, T and Prishchepov, AV and Zeng, Y and Yin, H and Koh, LP}, title = {The neglected role of abandoned cropland in supporting both food security and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {6083}, pmid = {37770491}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Agriculture ; Crops, Agricultural ; Forests ; Food Security ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Despite the looming land scarcity for agriculture, cropland abandonment is widespread globally. Abandoned cropland can be reused to support food security and climate change mitigation. Here, we investigate the potentials and trade-offs of using global abandoned cropland for recultivation and restoring forests by natural regrowth, with spatially-explicit modelling and scenario analysis. We identify 101 Mha of abandoned cropland between 1992 and 2020, with a capability of concurrently delivering 29 to 363 Peta-calories yr[-1] of food production potential and 290 to 1,066 MtCO2 yr[-1] of net climate change mitigation potential, depending on land-use suitability and land allocation strategies. We also show that applying spatial prioritization is key to maximizing the achievable potentials of abandoned cropland and demonstrate other possible approaches to further increase these potentials. Our findings offer timely insights into the potentials of abandoned cropland and can inform sustainable land management to buttress food security and climate goals.}, }
@article {pmid37770093, year = {2023}, author = {Braithwaite, J and Pichumani, A and Crowley, P}, title = {Tackling climate change: the pivotal role of clinicians.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {382}, number = {}, pages = {e076963}, doi = {10.1136/bmj-2023-076963}, pmid = {37770093}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Global Health ; }, }
@article {pmid37768656, year = {2023}, author = {Schiller, JH and Bernicker, E and Thomas, A}, title = {Climate Change and Cancer Care-Feeling the Heat.}, journal = {JAMA oncology}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {1495-1496}, doi = {10.1001/jamaoncol.2023.3511}, pmid = {37768656}, issn = {2374-2445}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; *Neoplasms/epidemiology/therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid37767516, year = {2023}, author = {Asefa Bogale, G}, title = {Analysis the characterization of climate change and its impacts on smallholder farmers in Eastern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {e20293}, pmid = {37767516}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on agriculture and food production is manifested through alterations in agro-ecological factors. The region of sub-Saharan Africa is particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change and variability, given its reliance on rainfall-dependent agriculture and inadequate adaptive capabilities. The objective of this study was to analysis of the characterization of climate change and its impacts on smallholder farmers in eastern Ethiopia. Historical daily rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature in 1991-2021 years of 12 weather station were collected from National Meteorological Institute of Ethiopia and NASA/POWER. Data quality control, trend test and outlier detection test were used. Climate characterization (onset, cessation, LGS and Dry/wet spell length) and precipitation concentration index were examined. The earliest, and latest start of rainy season in Kombolcha and Haramaya were 81DOY (March 21) and 225DOY (August 13) within mean 130DOY and 125DOY, respectively. In study area the minimum and maximum length of growing period of was recorded in Chinakesen and Haramaya by the values of 32DOY and 253DOY (Days of the year) respectively. In this arid and semi-arid areas, growing period was recorded under the short season crop maturity while long cropping season maturity does no satisfy crop water requirement due to moisture stress. The coefficient of variation of length of growing season from Mieso and Chinakesen were 36.2% and 47.9% which implies that the areas were highly vulnerable to climate extreme events of drought. Length of growing season (LGS) of Gemechis district was decreasing by a factor -2.533 shows highly significant at alpha value of 0.05 confidence level. Dry spell length probability occurrence of 5 days during the main cropping rainy season is significantly very high. The 30 years of data record suggests that a 29-48% precipitation concentration index of kiremt (JJAS) and belg (FMAM) seasonal rainfall which are demonstrating irregular precipitation. kiremt (JJAS) rainfall trend tests of Babile, Kurfa chale and Mieso districts were increasing by a factor of 2.016, 2.043 and 2.117, respectively and statistically significant at 95% confidence level, in the time period of 1991-2021 years. If furtherstudy will be examined climate extreme indices and adaptation strategies designed to simulate the impacts and variability of climate change in the study area.}, }
@article {pmid37765476, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, S and Liu, X and Wu, Y}, title = {Considering Climatic Factors, Time Lag, and Cumulative Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation NDVI in Yinshanbeilu, China.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {37765476}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {(YSS202114)//Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-Hydrology National Observation and Research Station, and China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China/ ; }, abstract = {Climate and human activities are the basic driving forces that control and influence the spatial distribution and change of vegetation. Using trend analysis, the Hurst index, correlation analysis, the Moran index, path analysis, residual analysis, and other methods, the effects of human activities and climate factors on vegetation change were analyzed. The results show that: (1) The research area's normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) exhibited a substantial upward trend from 2001 to 2020, increasing at a rate of 0.003/a, and the vegetation cover was generally healthy. The generally constant NDVI region made up 78.45% of the entire area, and the grassland, cultivated land, and forest land showed the most visible NDVI aggregation features. (2) The Vegetation is mainly promoted by water and heat, particularly precipitation, have a major impact on plants, with the direct influence of precipitation on vegetation growth being much greater than the indirect effect through the temperature. (3) The trend of NDVI residuals showed obvious spatial variability, presenting a distribution characteristic of high in the south and low in the north. The results of this study can provide a basis for the scientific layout of ecological protection and restoration projects in the Yinshanbeilu area.}, }
@article {pmid37765421, year = {2023}, author = {Poudel, A and Adhikari, P and Na, CS and Wee, J and Lee, DH and Lee, YH and Hong, SH}, title = {Assessing the Potential Distribution of Oxalis latifolia, a Rapidly Spreading Weed, in East Asia under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {37765421}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2018002270001 and 2022002450002//Korea Ministry of Environment/ ; }, abstract = {Oxalis latifolia, a perennial herbaceous weed, is a highly invasive species that poses a threat to agricultural lands worldwide. East Asia is under a high risk of invasion of O. latifolia under global climate change. To evaluate this risk, we employed maximum entropy modeling considering two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Currently, a small portion (8.02%) of East Asia is within the O. latifolia distribution, with the highest coverages in Chinese Taipei, China, and Japan (95.09%, 9.8%, and 0.24%, respectively). However, our projections indicated that this invasive weed will likely be introduced to South Korea and North Korea between 2041 and 2060 and 2081 and 2100, respectively. The species is expected to cover approximately 9.79% and 23.68% (SSP2-4.5) and 11.60% and 27.41% (SSP5-8.5) of the total land surface in East Asia by these time points, respectively. South Korea and Japan will be particularly susceptible, with O. latifolia potentially invading up to 80.73% of their territory by 2081-2100. Mongolia is projected to remain unaffected. This study underscores the urgent need for effective management strategies and careful planning to prevent the introduction and limit the expansion of O. latifolia in East Asian countries.}, }
@article {pmid37765351, year = {2023}, author = {Han, Q and Liu, Y and Jiang, H and Chen, X and Feng, H}, title = {Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Wild Radish in East Asia.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {37765351}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {31700188//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change can exert a considerable influence on the geographic distribution of many taxa, including coastal plants and populations of some plant species closely related to those used as agricultural crops. East Asian wild radish, Raphanus raphanistrum subsp. sativus, is an annual coastal plant that is a wild relative of the cultivated radish (R. sativus). It has served as source of genetic material that has been helpful to develop and improve the quality and yield of radish crops. To assess the impact of climate change on wild radish in East Asia, we analyzed its distribution at different periods using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The results indicated that the precipitation of the driest month (bio14) and precipitation seasonality (bio15) were the two most dominant environmental factors that affected the geographical distribution of wild radish in East Asia. The total potential area suitable for wild radish is 102.5574 × 10[4] km[2], mainly located along the seacoasts of southern China, Korea, and the Japanese archipelago. Compared with its current distribution regions, the potentially suitable areas for wild radish in the 2070s will further increase and expand northwards in Japan, especially on the sand beach habitats of Hokkaido. This research reveals the spatiotemporal changes for the coastal plant wild radish under global warming and simultaneously provides a vital scientific basis for effective utilization and germplasm innovation for radish cultivars to achieve sustainable agriculture development.}, }
@article {pmid37765346, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, G and Dai, E and Dawaqiongda,  and Luobu,  and Fu, G}, title = {Effects of Climate Change and Fencing on Forage Nutrition Quality of Alpine Grasslands in the Northern Tibet.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {37765346}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {How climate change and fencing will affect forage nutrition quality of alpine grasslands is still unknown in the Northern Tibet. Here, we reported the effects of climate change and fencing on forage nutrition quality (i.e., CP: crude protein, ADF: acid detergent fiber, NDF: neutral detergent fiber, Ash: crude ash, EE: ether extract and DTS: dissolvable total sugar) in alpine grasslands across the Northern Tibet based on a transect survey dataset from 2018. Over the whole survey transect, fencing reduced the NDF content by 5.15% and the EE content by 15.79%, but did not affect forage nutrition quality (R[2] = 0.04, p = 0.389). Air temperature and precipitation explained 24% and 8% of variation in the CP content under the fencing conditions, respectively. Precipitation explained 22% of variation in the NDF content under the fencing conditions. The CP content decreased and increased exponentially with increasing air temperature under the fencing and grazing conditions, respectively. The NDF content showed logarithmic and negative relationships with precipitation under the fencing and grazing conditions (-8.45 vs. -6.68lnNDF). The response of the CP content to fencing showed negative relationships with temperature and the response of AGB to fencing, but showed a positive relationship with precipitation. The CP and DTS contents showed negative relationships with AGB under the fencing and grazing conditions. In contrast, the ADF content showed a positive relationship with AGB. The response of AGB, SR and community composition to fencing explained 11%, 56% and 35% of variation in the response of forage nutrition quality to fencing, respectively. Therefore, climate change may not always have adverse effects on forage nutrition quality, whereas fencing may not always have favorable effects on forage nutrition quality. Fencing and climate change can have an interactive effect on forage nutrition quality. Fencing can alter the temperature and precipitation sensitivities of forage nutrition quality. In colder and wetter regions, the forage nutrition quality may be more responsive to fencing. There may be a trade-off between forage nutrition quality and quantity. Compared to the change in AGB caused by fencing, the changes in species α-diversity and community composition caused by fencing can have greater effects on the response of forage nutrition quality to fencing. Local climate conditions and the trade-offs between forage nutrition quality and biomass should be considered when evaluating the effects of fencing on the restoration of degraded grassland plants.}, }
@article {pmid37764018, year = {2023}, author = {Sabour, A}, title = {Global Risk Maps of Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of Acinetobacter baumannii Using GIS.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {37764018}, issn = {2076-2607}, support = {(RSP2023R16)//This project was supported by Researchers Supporting Project Number (RSP2023R16), King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia./ ; }, abstract = {Impacts of climate change rank among the century's most significant ecological and medical concerns. As a result of climatic changes, the distribution of some bacterial species will alter across time and space. Numerous bacterial infections will reorganize as a result worldwide. Acinetobacter baumannii Bouvet and Grimont is one of the most significant and frequently occurring bacteria identified in soil and air. The COVID-19 pandemic has changed how bacteriologists perceive this species as a new threat to human health. In order to estimate the existing and future worldwide distribution of A. baumannii under various climate change scenarios, about 1000 A. baumannii occurrence records were employed. Given its superior accuracy and dependability versus alternative modeling techniques, maximum entropy implemented in MaxEnt was selected as the modeling tool. The bioclimatic variable that contributes the most to the distribution of A. baumannii is the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio_11). The created current distribution model agreed with the species' actual globally dispersed distribution. It is projected that A. baumannii will experience a severe range expansion due to the increase in temperature brought on by global warming in different regions of its range. According to the risk maps created for 2050 and 2070 using two alternative RCPs, there are various regions that will be under risk of this bacterium as a result of rising temperature. Future data science and GIS evaluation of the current results are necessary, especially on a local level.}, }
@article {pmid37760346, year = {2023}, author = {Jeon, E and Jang, S and Yeo, JM and Kim, DW and Cho, K}, title = {Impact of Climate Change and Heat Stress on Milk Production in Korean Holstein Cows: A Large-Scale Data Analysis.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {37760346}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {PJ01494504//Rural Development Administration/ ; }, abstract = {This study investigated the effects of heat stress on milk production in Korean Holstein cows using large-scale data. Heat stress was assessed using the temperature-humidity index (THI). Weather records (2016 to 2020) were collected from 70 regional weather stations using an installed automated surface observing system (ASOS). A dataset of 2,094,436 milk production records from 215,276 Holstein cows obtained from the Dairy Cattle Genetic Improvement Center was analyzed. Stepwise selection was used to select the input variables, including the daily maximum THI (THI_max). Least-squares means were calculated for milk yield, fat and protein corrected milk (FPCM), fat and protein yield, fat-to-protein ratio, solids not fat, and lactation persistency. Segmented linear regression analysis determined the break points (BPs) of the THI_max. Over the five years, heat stress exposure increased, particularly from May to September. This study identified BPs around THI_max of 80-82 for milk yield and FPCM. Similar patterns for other milk traits were observed, which significantly decreased beyond their respective BPs. These findings indicate that THI variations adversely affect milk yield and composition in dairy cows, highlighting the importance of appropriate feeding management strategies to ensure the optimal productivity of Holstein cows under varying climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37759107, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Global warming is advancing the season for intense tropical cyclones.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37759107}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37758447, year = {2023}, author = {Mateus-Rodríguez, JF and Lahive, F and Hadley, P and Daymond, AJ}, title = {Effects of simulated climate change conditions of increased temperature and [CO2] on the early growth and physiology of the tropical tree crop, Theobroma cacao L.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {43}, number = {12}, pages = {2050-2063}, pmid = {37758447}, issn = {1758-4469}, support = {//Cocoa Research UK/ ; }, mesh = {Temperature ; *Cacao ; Climate Change ; Trees ; Carbon Dioxide ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; }, abstract = {Despite multiple studies of the impact of climate change on temperate tree species, experiments on tropical and economically important tree crops, such as cacao (Theobroma cacao L.), are still limited. Here, we investigated the combined effects of increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) on the growth, photosynthesis and development of juvenile plants of two contrasting cacao genotypes: SCA 6 and PA 107. The factorial growth chamber experiment combined two [CO2] treatments (410 and 700 p.p.m.) and three day/night temperature regimes (control: 31/22 °C, control + 2.5 °C: 33.5/24.5 °C and control + 5.0 °C: 36/27 °C) at a constant vapour pressure deficit (VPD) of 0.9 kPa. At elevated [CO2], the final dry weight and the total and individual leaf areas increased in both genotypes, while the duration for individual leaf expansion declined in PA 107. For both genotypes, elevated [CO2] also improved light-saturated net photosynthesis (Pn) and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), whereas leaf transpiration (E) and stomatal conductance (gs) decreased. Under a constant low VPD, increasing temperatures above 31/22 °C enhanced the rates of Pn, E and gs in both genotypes, suggesting that photosynthesis responds positively to higher temperatures than previously reported for cacao. However, dry weight and the total and individual leaf areas declined with increases in temperature, which was more evident in SCA 6 than PA 107, suggesting the latter genotype was more tolerant to elevated temperature. Our results suggest that the combined effect of elevated [CO2] and temperature is likely to improve the early growth of high temperature-tolerant genotypes, while elevated [CO2] appeared to ameliorate the negative effects of increased temperatures on growth parameters of more sensitive material. The evident genotypic variation observed in this study demonstrates the scope to select and breed cacao varieties capable of adapting to future climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid37758130, year = {2024}, author = {Dalpadado, P and Roxy, MK and Arrigo, KR and van Dijken, GL and Chierici, M and Ostrowski, M and Skern-Mauritzen, R and Bakke, G and Richardson, AJ and Sperfeld, E}, title = {Rapid climate change alters the environment and biological production of the Indian Ocean.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {906}, number = {}, pages = {167342}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167342}, pmid = {37758130}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Indian Ocean ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Oceans and Seas ; Biodiversity ; Fisheries ; }, abstract = {We synthesize and review the impacts of climate change on the physical, chemical, and biological environments of the Indian Ocean and discuss mitigating actions and knowledge gaps. The most recent climate scenarios identify with high certainty that the Indian Ocean (IO) is experiencing one of the fastest surface warming among the world's oceans. The area of surface waters of >28 °C (IO Warm Pool) has significantly increased during 1982-2021 by expanding into the northern-central basins. A significant decrease in pH and aragonite (building blocks of calcified organisms) levels in the IO was observed from 1981-2020 due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. There are also signals of decreasing trends in primary productivity in the north, likely related to enhanced stratification and nutrient depletion. Further, the rapid warming of the IO will manifest more extreme weather conditions along its adjacent continents and oceans, including marine heat waves that are likely to reshape biodiversity. However, the impact of climate change beyond the unprecedented warming, increase in marine heat waves, expansion of the IO Warm Pool, and decrease in pH, remains uncertain for many other key variables in the IO including changes in salinity, oxygen, and net primary production. Understanding the response of these physical, chemical, and biological variables to climate change is vital to project future changes in regional fisheries and identify mitigation actions. We accordingly conclude by identifying knowledge gaps and recommending directions for sustainable fisheries and climate impact studies.}, }
@article {pmid37756347, year = {2023}, author = {Jackson, ST}, title = {Repurposing long-term ecological studies for climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {41}, pages = {e2314444120}, pmid = {37756347}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid37756293, year = {2023}, author = {Pinchoff, J and Regules, R and Gomez-Ugarte, AC and Abularrage, TF and Bojorquez-Chapela, I}, title = {Coping with climate change: The role of climate related stressors in affecting the mental health of young people in Mexico.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {e0002219}, pmid = {37756293}, issn = {2767-3375}, abstract = {Young people today are predicted to experience more climate change related stressors and harms than the previous generation, yet they are often excluded from climate research, policy, and advocacy. Increasingly, this exposure is associated with experience of common mental health disorders (CMD). The VoCes-19 study collected surveys from 168,407 young people across Mexico (ages 15-24 years) through an innovative online platform, collecting information on various characteristics including CMD and experience of recent climate harms. Logistic regression models were fit to explore characteristics associated with CMD. Structural equation models were fit to explore pathways between exposure, feeling of concern about climate change, and a sense of agency (meaning the respondent felt they could help address the climate crisis) and how these relate to CMD. Of the respondents, 42% (n = 50,682) were categorized as experiencing CMD, higher among those who experienced a climate stressor (51%, n = 4,808) vs those not experiencing climate stressors (41%, n = 43,872). Adjusting for key demographic characteristics, exposure to any climate event increased the odds of CMD by 50% (Odd Ratio = 1.57; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.49, 1.64), highest for heatwaves. Specific climate impacts such as housing damage, loss of or inability to work, damage to family business, leaving school and physical health affected were adversely related to CMD, though for different climate hazards. More concern and less agency were related to CMD through different pathways, particularly for those exposed to recent events. Future research regarding the cumulative exposures to climate change, not just acute events but as an ongoing crisis, and various pathways that influence the mental health and well-being of young people must be clearly understood to develop programs and policies to protect the next generation.}, }
@article {pmid37754657, year = {2023}, author = {Woodward, A and Hinwood, A and Bennett, D and Grear, B and Vardoulakis, S and Lalchandani, N and Lyne, K and Williams, C}, title = {Trees, Climate Change, and Health: An Urban Planning, Greening and Implementation Perspective.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {37754657}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *City Planning ; *Trees ; Climate Change ; Communication ; }, abstract = {The In Conversation: Boundary, Spanners, Thinkers and Policy Actors Round Table Series provides a platform for researchers, policy actors, and implementation experts to elevate discussion on emerging issues, present new and upcoming research, and facilitate conversations around impacts and possible solutions. This brief report, on trees, climate change, and health, reflects a conversation between the authors of this paper, along with supporting literature. It explores the potential of green spaces and trees as a viable strategy to address climate change challenges and simultaneously improve population health, well-being, and health equity. In particular, it highlights the public health benefits of trees and green space, the challenges faced in urban areas, and opportunities for the protection, maintenance and regeneration of urban green space.}, }
@article {pmid37753310, year = {2023}, author = {Zheng, Y and Yuan, C and Matsushita, N and Lian, C and Geng, Q}, title = {Analysis of the distribution pattern of the ectomycorrhizal fungus Cenococcum geophilum under climate change using the optimized MaxEnt model.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e10565}, pmid = {37753310}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Cenococcum geophilum (C. geophilum) is a widely distributed ectomycorrhizal fungus that plays a crucial role in forest ecosystems worldwide. However, the specific ecological factors influencing its global distribution and how climate change will affect its range are still relatively unknown. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model optimized with the kuenm package to simulate changes in the distribution pattern of C. geophilum from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future based on 164 global distribution records and 17 environmental variables and investigated the key environmental factors influencing its distribution. We employed the optimal parameter combination of RM = 4 and FC = QPH, resulting in a highly accurate predictive model. Our study clearly shows that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and annual precipitation are the key environmental factors influencing the suitable habitats of C. geophilum. Currently, appropriate habitats of C. geophilum are mainly distributed in eastern Asia, west-central Europe, the western seaboard and eastern regions of North America, and southeastern Australia, covering a total area of approximately 36,578,300 km[2] globally. During the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene, C. geophilum had a much smaller distribution area, being mainly concentrated in the Qinling-Huaihe Line region of China and eastern Peninsular Malaysia. As global warming continues, the future suitable habitat for C. geophilum is projected to shift northward, leading to an expected expansion of the suitable area from 9.21% to 21.02%. This study provides a theoretical foundation for global conservation efforts and biogeographic understanding of C. geophilum, offering new insights into its distribution patterns and evolutionary trends.}, }
@article {pmid37752704, year = {2023}, author = {Gao, L and Cui, X}, title = {Climate change and food security: Plant science roles.}, journal = {Molecular plant}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {1481-1483}, doi = {10.1016/j.molp.2023.09.019}, pmid = {37752704}, issn = {1752-9867}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plants ; Agriculture ; Food Security ; }, }
@article {pmid37751703, year = {2023}, author = {Junk, I and Schmitt, N and Krehenwinkel, H}, title = {Tracking climate-change-induced biological invasions by metabarcoding archived natural eDNA samplers.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {33}, number = {18}, pages = {R943-R944}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2023.07.035}, pmid = {37751703}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Retrospective Studies ; DNA Barcoding, Taxonomic ; Environmental Monitoring ; Biodiversity ; *DNA, Environmental/genetics ; }, abstract = {In a time of unprecedented environmental change, understanding the response of organisms and ecosystems to change is paramount[1]. However, our knowledge of anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems is limited by a lack of standardized retrospective biomonitoring data[2]. Here, we use a four-decade time series of archived blue mussels to trace spatiotemporal biodiversity change in coastal ecosystems. The filter-feeding mussels, which were initially collected for pollution monitoring, can serve as natural eDNA samplers, carrying an imprint of the surrounding aquatic community at the time of sampling[3]. By sequencing the preserved DNA, we characterize highly diverse mussel-associated communities and reconstruct the invasion trajectory of an invasive species, the barnacle Austrominius modestus. We quantitatively trace population growth of the invader to the detriment of native taxa and uncover repeated population collapses and reinvasions after cold winters. By providing highly resolved temporal data on community assembly and global warming-driven invasion processes, natural eDNA sampler time series overcome a critical shortfall in our understanding of biodiversity change in the Anthropocene.}, }
@article {pmid37751177, year = {2023}, author = {Clerc, C and Aumont, O and Bopp, L}, title = {Filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton response to climate change and implications for benthic food supply and global carbon cycle.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {22}, pages = {6383-6398}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16942}, pmid = {37751177}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {ANR-17-CE32-0008//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; 101003536//H2020 Societal Challenges/ ; 820989//H2020 Societal Challenges/ ; }, abstract = {It is often suggested that gelatinous zooplankton may benefit from anthropogenic pressures of all kinds and in particular from climate change. Large pelagic tunicates, for example, are likely to be favored over other types of macrozooplankton due to their filter-feeding mode, which gives them access to small preys thought to be less affected by climate change than larger preys. In this study, we provide model-based estimate of potential community changes in macrozooplankton composition and estimate for the first time their effects on benthic food supply and on the ocean carbon cycle under two 21st-century climate-change scenarios. Forced with output from an Earth System Model climate projections, our ocean biogeochemical model simulates a large reduction in macrozooplankton biomass in response to anthropogenic climate change, but shows that gelatinous macrozooplankton are less affected than nongelatinous macrozooplankton, with global biomass declines estimated at -2.8% and -3.5%, respectively, for every 1°C of warming. The inclusion of gelatinous macrozooplankon in our ocean biogeochemical model has a limited effect on anthropogenic carbon uptake in the 21st century, but impacts the projected decline in particulate organic matter fluxes in the deep ocean. In subtropical oligotrophic gyres, where gelatinous zooplankton dominate macrozooplankton, the decline in the amount of organic matter reaching the seafloor is reduced by a factor of 2 when gelatinous macrozooplankton are considered (-17.5% vs. -29.7% when gelatinous macrozooplankton are not considered, all for 2100 under RCP8.5). The shift to gelatinous macrozooplankton in the future ocean therefore buffers the decline in deep carbon fluxes and should be taken into account when assessing potential changes in deep carbon storage and the risks that deep ecosystems may face when confronted with a decline in their food source.}, }
@article {pmid37750675, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, Y and Jackson, C and Darraj, N and Krevor, S}, title = {Feasibility of Carbon Dioxide Storage Resource Use within Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios for the United States.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {57}, number = {40}, pages = {14938-14949}, pmid = {37750675}, issn = {1520-5851}, abstract = {To progress decarbonization in the United States, numerous techno-economic models that project CO2 storage deployment at annual injection rates of 0.3-1.7 Gt year[-1] by 2050 have been built. However, these models do not consider many geological, technical, or socio-economic factors that could impede the growth of geological storage resource use, and there is uncertainty about the feasibility of the resulting projections. Here, we evaluate storage scenarios across four major modeling efforts. We apply a growth modeling framework using logistic curves to analyze the feasibility of growth trajectories under constraints imposed by the associated storage resource availability. We show that storage resources are abundant, and resources of the Gulf Coast alone would be sufficient to meet national demand were it not for transport limitations. On the contrary, deployment trajectories require sustained average annual (exponential) growth at rates of >10% nationally for two of the three reports and between 3% and 20% regionally across four storage hubs projected in both reports with regional resolution. These rates are high relative to historical rates of growth in analogous large scale energy infrastructure in the United States. Projections for California appear to be particularly infeasible. Future modeling efforts should be constrained to more realistic deployment trajectories, which could be done with simple constraints from the type of modeling framework presented here.}, }
@article {pmid37750403, year = {2023}, author = {Laney, E and Nkusi, A and Herrera, C and Lane, M and Sampath, A and Kitron, U and Fairley, JK and Philipsborn, R and White, C}, title = {Intersections of climate change, migration, and health: experiences of first-generation migrants from Latin America to the Atlanta-metropolitan area.}, journal = {Global public health}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {2261773}, doi = {10.1080/17441692.2023.2261773}, pmid = {37750403}, issn = {1744-1706}, mesh = {Humans ; Latin America ; Climate Change ; *Transients and Migrants ; *Emigrants and Immigrants ; Health Facilities ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an important driver of migration, but little research exists on whether migrant communities in the U.S. identify climate change-related factors as reasons for migrating. In 2021, we conducted a multidisciplinary, collaborative project to better understand the nexus of climate change and immigrant health in the Atlanta area. This paper presents one arm of this collaboration that explored both the role of climate change in decisions to immigrate to Georgia and the ways that climate change intersects with other possible drivers of migration. First generation migrants from Latin America were recruited primarily through CPACS Cosmo Health Center and were invited to participate in an intake survey and an in-depth interview. Results were analyzed using descriptive statistics and thematic analysis. Findings suggest that while participants may not have explicitly identified climate change as a primary reason for migration, in both surveys and in-depth interviews, participants reported multiple and intersecting social, economic, political, and environmental factors that are directly or indirectly influenced by climate change and that are involved in their decisions to migrate. The narratives that emerged from in-depth interviews further contextualised survey data and elucidated the complex nexus of climate change, migration, and health.}, }
@article {pmid37750343, year = {2023}, author = {Morineau, C and Boulanger, Y and Gachon, P and Plante, S and St-Laurent, MH}, title = {Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {23}, pages = {6661-6678}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16949}, pmid = {37750343}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Minist&#xe8;re de l'Environnement, de la Lutte contre les Changements Climatiques, de la Faune et des Parcs du Qu&#xe9;bec/ ; //Minist&#xe8;re des Ressources naturelles et des For&#xea;ts du Qu&#xe9;bec/ ; #566416-21//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; #2016-05196//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; #2022-04307//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Quebec ; *Reindeer ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {The contraction of species range is one of the most significant symptoms of biodiversity loss worldwide. While anthropogenic activities and habitat alteration are major threats for several species, climate change should also be considered. For species at risk, differentiating the effects of human disturbances and climate change on past and current range transformations is an important step towards improved conservation strategies. We paired historical range maps with global atmospheric reanalyses from different sources to assess the potential effects of recent climate change on the observed northward contraction of the range of boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Quebec (Canada) since 1850. We quantified these effects by highlighting the discrepancies between different southern limits of the caribou's range (used as references) observed in the past and reconstitutions obtained through the hindcasting of the climate conditions within which caribou are currently found. Hindcasted southern limits moved ~105 km north over time under all reanalysis datasets, a trend drastically different from the ~620 km reported for observed southern limits since 1850. The differences in latitudinal shift through time between the observed and hindcasted southern limits of distribution suggest that caribou range recession should have been only 17% of what has been observed since 1850 if recent climate change had been the only disturbance driver. This relatively limited impact of climate reinforces the scientific consensus stating that caribou range recession in Quebec is mainly caused by anthropogenic drivers (i.e. logging, development of the road network, agriculture, urbanization) that have modified the structure and composition of the forest over the past 160 years, paving the way for habitat-mediated apparent competition and overharvesting. Our results also call for a reconsideration of past ranges in models aiming at projecting future distributions, especially for endangered species.}, }
@article {pmid37750081, year = {2023}, author = {Lavin, CP and Pauly, D and Dimarchopoulou, D and Liang, C and Costello, MJ}, title = {Fishery catch is affected by geographic expansion, fishing down food webs and climate change in Aotearoa, New Zealand.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e16070}, pmid = {37750081}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; *Food Chain ; *Climate Change ; Fisheries ; Hunting ; New Zealand ; }, abstract = {Historical fishing effort has resulted, in many parts of the ocean, in increasing catches of smaller, lower trophic level species once larger higher trophic level species have been depleted. Concurrently, changes in the geographic distribution of marine species have been observed as species track their thermal affinity in line with ocean warming. However, geographic shifts in fisheries, including to deeper waters, may conceal the phenomenon of fishing down the food web and effects of climate warming on fish stocks. Fisheries-catch weighted metrics such as the Mean Trophic Level (MTL) and Mean Temperature of the Catch (MTC) are used to investigate these phenomena, although apparent trends of these metrics can be masked by the aforementioned geographic expansion and deepening of fisheries catch across large areas and time periods. We investigated instances of both fishing down trophic levels and climate-driven changes in the geographic distribution of fished species in New Zealand waters from 1950-2019, using the MTL and MTC. Thereafter, we corrected for the masking effect of the geographic expansion of fisheries within these indices by using the Fishing-in-Balance (FiB) index and the adapted Mean Trophic Level (aMTL) index. Our results document the offshore expansion of fisheries across the New Zealand Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) from 1950-2019, as well as the pervasiveness of fishing down within nearshore fishing stock assemblages. We also revealed the warming of the MTC for pelagic-associated fisheries, trends that were otherwise masked by the depth- and geographic expansion of New Zealand fisheries across the study period.}, }
@article {pmid37749591, year = {2023}, author = {Ryan, SJ and Lippi, CA and Zermoglio, F}, title = {Correction: Shifting transmission risk for malaria in Africa with climate change: a framework for planning and intervention.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {282}, pmid = {37749591}, issn = {1475-2875}, }
@article {pmid37746755, year = {2023}, author = {Boos, MD}, title = {Climate change and air pollution: Twin threats of burning fossil fuels with implications for the practice of dermatology.}, journal = {Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology : JEADV}, volume = {37}, number = {10}, pages = {1943-1944}, doi = {10.1111/jdv.19358}, pmid = {37746755}, issn = {1468-3083}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Dermatology ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid37746004, year = {2023}, author = {Khan, AL}, title = {The phytomicrobiome: solving plant stress tolerance under climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1219366}, pmid = {37746004}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {With extraordinary global climate changes, increased episodes of extreme conditions result in continuous but complex interaction of environmental variables with plant life. Exploring natural phytomicrobiome species can provide a crucial resource of beneficial microbes that can improve plant growth and productivity through nutrient uptake, secondary metabolite production, and resistance against pathogenicity and abiotic stresses. The phytomicrobiome composition, diversity, and function strongly depend on the plant's genotype and climatic conditions. Currently, most studies have focused on elucidating microbial community abundance and diversity in the phytomicrobiome, covering bacterial communities. However, least is known about understanding the holistic phytomicrobiome composition and how they interact and function in stress conditions. This review identifies several gaps and essential questions that could enhance understanding of the complex interaction of microbiome, plant, and climate change. Utilizing eco-friendly approaches of naturally occurring synthetic microbial communities that enhance plant stress tolerance and leave fewer carbon-foot prints has been emphasized. However, understanding the mechanisms involved in stress signaling and responses by phytomicrobiome species under spatial and temporal climate changes is extremely important. Furthermore, the bacterial and fungal biome have been studied extensively, but the holistic interactome with archaea, viruses, oomycetes, protozoa, algae, and nematodes has seldom been studied. The inter-kingdom diversity, function, and potential role in improving environmental stress responses of plants are considerably important. In addition, much remains to be understood across organismal and ecosystem-level responses under dynamic and complex climate change conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37744236, year = {2023}, author = {Chandler, HC and Caruso, NM and McLaughlin, DL and Jiao, Y and Brooks, GC and Haas, CA}, title = {Forecasting the flooding dynamics of flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands under future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e16050}, pmid = {37744236}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; *Urodela ; *Climate Change ; Wetlands ; Plant Breeding ; Ambystoma ; }, abstract = {Ephemeral wetlands are globally important systems that are regulated by regular cycles of wetting and drying, which are primarily controlled by responses to relatively short-term weather events (e.g., precipitation and evapotranspiration). Climate change is predicted to have significant effects on many ephemeral wetland systems and the organisms that depend on them through altered filling or drying dates that impact hydroperiod. To examine the potential effects of climate change on pine flatwoods wetlands in the southeastern United States, we created statistical models describing wetland hydrologic regime using an approximately 8-year history of water level monitoring and a variety of climate data inputs. We then assessed how hydrology may change in the future by projecting models forward (2025-2100) under six future climate scenarios (three climate models each with two emission scenarios). We used the model results to assess future breeding conditions for the imperiled Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander (Ambystoma bishopi), which breeds in many of the study wetlands. We found that models generally fit the data well and had good predictability across both training and testing data. Across all models and climate scenarios, there was substantial variation in the predicted suitability for flatwoods salamander reproduction. However, wetlands with longer hydroperiods tended to have fewer model iterations that predicted at least five consecutive years of reproductive failure (an important metric for population persistence). Understanding potential future risk to flatwoods salamander populations can be used to guide conservation and management actions for this imperiled species.}, }
@article {pmid37744233, year = {2023}, author = {Leão, CF and Lima Ribeiro, MS and Moraes, K and Gonçalves, GSR and Lima, MGM}, title = {Climate change and carnivores: shifts in the distribution and effectiveness of protected areas in the Amazon.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e15887}, pmid = {37744233}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Mammals ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Carnivore mammals are animals vulnerable to human interference, such as climate change and deforestation. Their distribution and persistence are affected by such impacts, mainly in tropical regions such as the Amazon. Due to the importance of carnivores in the maintenance and functioning of the ecosystem, they are extremely important animals for conservation. We evaluated the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of carnivores in the Amazon using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Do we seek to answer the following questions: (1) What is the effect of climate change on the distribution of carnivores in the Amazon? (2) Will carnivore species lose or gain representation within the Protected Areas (PAs) of the Amazon in the future?<br><br>METHODS: We evaluated the distribution area of 16 species of carnivores mammals in the Amazon, based on two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the year 2070. For the construction of the SDMs we used bioclimatic and vegetation cover variables (land type). Based on these models, we calculated the area loss and climate suitability of the species, as well as the effectiveness of the protected areas inserted in the Amazon. We estimated the effectiveness of PAs on the individual persistence of carnivores in the future, for this, we used the SDMs to perform the gap analysis. Finally, we analyze the effectiveness of PAs in protecting taxonomic richness in future scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: The SDMs showed satisfactory predictive performance, with Jaccard values above 0.85 and AUC above 0.91 for all species. In the present and for the future climate scenarios, we observe a reduction of potencial distribution in both future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), where five species will be negatively affected by climate change in the RCP 4.5 future scenario and eight in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The remaining species stay stable in terms of total area. All species in the study showed a loss of climatic suitability. Some species lost almost all climatic suitability in the RCP 8.5 scenario. According to the GAP analysis, all species are protected within the PAs both in the current scenario and in both future climate scenarios. From the null models, we found that in all climate scenarios, the PAs are not efficient in protecting species richness.}, }
@article {pmid37743705, year = {2024}, author = {Incesu, O and Yas, MA}, title = {The relationship between nursing students' environmental literacy and awareness of Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {67-76}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13255}, pmid = {37743705}, issn = {1525-1446}, mesh = {Adult ; Humans ; *Students, Nursing ; Climate Change ; *Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate/methods ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Curriculum ; *Health Literacy ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine the correlation between environmental literacy and levels of awareness of global climate change in nursing students.<br><br>DESIGN: The cross-sectional and correlational design.<br><br>SAMPLE: 476 undergraduate nursing students METHODS: Data were collected with The Personal Information Form, the Awareness Scale of University Students about Global Climate Change, and Environmental Literacy Scale for Adults in March 2023. Descriptive statistics, correlation, and linear regression analysis (stepwise method) were used to analyze the data.<br><br>RESULTS: The mean scores of the Environmental Literacy Scale and the Awareness Scale of University Students about Global Climate Change Scale were 87.31&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;8.61 and 75.60&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;14.86, respectively. A positive correlation was found between the awareness of global climate change and environmental literacy (p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05). As participation in meetings on environmental problems, environmental concerns and awareness increased, awareness of global climate change increased.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Nursing students had high levels of awareness of global climate change and environmental literacy. The awareness of nursing students on climate change and their environmental literacy levels are highly important in protecting public health against the adverse effects of climate change and reducing climate change through effective resource management in health services in the future. It is recommended that integrate courses related to environment health to curriculum of nursing school and in-service training during healthcare. The study draws attention to the Sustainable Development Goals related to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37742954, year = {2024}, author = {Queiros, Q and McKenzie, DJ and Dutto, G and Killen, S and Saraux, C and Schull, Q}, title = {Fish shrinking, energy balance and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {906}, number = {}, pages = {167310}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167310}, pmid = {37742954}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; Fishes/physiology ; Global Warming ; Energy Metabolism ; }, abstract = {A decline in size is increasingly recognised as a major response by ectothermic species to global warming. Mechanisms underlying this phenomenon are poorly understood but could include changes in energy balance of consumers, driven by declines in prey size coupled with increased energy demands due to warming. The sardine Sardina pilchardus is a prime example of animal shrinking, European populations of this planktivorous fish are undergoing profound decreases in body condition and adult size. This is apparently a bottom-up effect coincident with a shift towards increased reliance on smaller planktonic prey. We investigated the hypothesis that foraging on smaller prey would lead to increased rates of energy expenditure by sardines, and that such expenditures would be exacerbated by warming temperature. Using group respirometry we measured rates of energy expenditure indirectly, as oxygen uptake, by captive adult sardines offered food of two different sizes (0.2 or 1.2 mm items) when acclimated to two temperatures (16 °C or 21 °C). Energy expenditure during feeding on small items was tripled at 16 °C and doubled at 21 °C compared to large items, linked to a change in foraging mode between filter feeding on small or direct capture of large. This caused daily energy expenditure to increase by ~10 % at 16 °C and ~40 % at 21 °C on small items, compared to large items at 16 °C. These results support that declines in prey size coupled with warming could influence energy allocation towards life-history traits in wild populations. This bottom-up effect could partially explain the shrinking and declining condition of many small pelagic fish populations and may be contributing to the shrinking of other fish species throughout the marine food web. Understanding how declines in prey size can couple with warming to affect consumers is a crucial element of projecting the consequences for marine fauna of ongoing anthropogenic global change.}, }
@article {pmid37742952, year = {2023}, author = {Bangelesa, F and Pollinger, F and Sponholz, B and Mapatano, MA and Hatløy, A and Paeth, H}, title = {Statistical-dynamical modeling of the maize yield response to future climate change in West, East and Central Africa using the regional climate model REMO.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {905}, number = {}, pages = {167265}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167265}, pmid = {37742952}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Africa is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly in terms of its agriculture and crop production. The majority of climate models project a negative impact of future climate change on crop production, with maize being particularly vulnerable. However, the magnitude of this change remains uncertain. Therefore, it is important to reduce the uncertainties related to the anticipated changes to guide adaptation options. This study uses a combination of local and large-scale empirical orthogonal function (EOF) predictors as a novel approach to model the impacts of future climate change on crop yields in West, East and Central Africa. Here a cross-validated Bayesian model was developed using predictors derived from the regional climate model REMO for the period 1982-2100. On average, the combined local and large-scale EOF predictors explained around 28 % of maize yield variability from 1982 to 2016 of the entire study regions. Notably, climate predictors played a significant role in West Africa, explaining up to 51 % of the maize yield variability. Large-scale climate EOF predictors contributed most to the explained variance, reflecting the role of regional climate in future maize yield variability. Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), maize yield is projected to decrease over the entire study region by 20 % by the end of the century. However, a minor increase is projected in eastern Africa. This study highlights the importance of incorporating climate predictors at various scales into crop yield modeling. Furthermore, the findings will offer valuable guidance to decision-makers in shaping adaptation options.}, }
@article {pmid37742951, year = {2023}, author = {Puchałka, R and Paź-Dyderska, S and Dylewski, &#x141; and Czortek, P and Vítková, M and Sádlo, J and Klisz, M and Koniakin, S and Čarni, A and Rašomavičius, V and De Sanctis, M and Dyderski, MK}, title = {Forest herb species with similar European geographic ranges may respond differently to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {905}, number = {}, pages = {167303}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167303}, pmid = {37742951}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Biodiversity ; Europe ; Soil ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Many phenological studies have shown that spring geophytes are very sensitive to climate change, responding by shifting flowering and fruiting dates. However, there is a gap in knowledge about climatic drivers of their distributions and range shifts under climate change. Here we aimed to estimate climate niche shifts for four widely distributed and common geophytes of the nemoral zone of Europe (Anemone nemorosa, Anemone ranunculoides, Convallaria majalis and Maianthemum bifolium) and to assess the threat level under various climate change scenarios. Using MaxEnt species distribution models and future climate change scenarios we found that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping their ranges. All species studied will experience more loss in the 2061-2080 period than in 2041-2060, and under more pessimistic scenarios. M. bifolium will experience the highest loss, followed by A. nemorosa, A. ranunculoides, and the smallest for C. majalis. A. ranunculoides will gain the most, while M. bifolium will have the smallest potential range expansion. Studied species may respond differently to climate change despite similar current distributions and climatic variables affecting their potential distribution. Even slight differences in climatic niches could reduce the overlap of future ranges compared to present. We expect that due to high dependence on the warmest quarter precipitation, summer droughts in the future may be particularly severe for species that prefer moist soils. The lack of adaptation to long-distance migration and limited availability of appropriate soils may limit their migration and lead to a decline in biodiversity and changes in European forests.}, }
@article {pmid37742937, year = {2023}, author = {Nassikas, NJ and Gold, DR}, title = {Climate change is a health crisis with opportunities for health care action: A focus on health care providers, patients with asthma and allergic immune diseases, and their families and neighbors.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {152}, number = {5}, pages = {1047-1052}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2023.09.013}, pmid = {37742937}, issn = {1097-6825}, support = {P30 ES000002/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; *Asthma/epidemiology ; Delivery of Health Care ; Health Personnel ; }, abstract = {Climate change has increased the frequency of extreme weather events and compounded natural disasters. Heat, wildfires, flooding, and pollen are already threatening public health and disproportionately affecting individuals in susceptible situations and vulnerable locations. In this theme issue of the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, we address what is known and not known about the biologic as well as clinical upstream and downstream effects of climate change on asthma and allergy development and exacerbation. We present potential actions that individuals can take at the family, neighborhood, community, health care system, and national and international levels to build climate resilience and protect their own health and the health and welfare of others. We emphasize the importance of actions and policies that are context specific and just. We emphasize the need for the health care system, which contributes between 3% and 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, to reduce its carbon footprint and build resiliency. Health care providers play a pivotal role in helping policymakers understand the effects of climate on the health of our patients. There is still a window to avoid the most serious effects of climate change on human health and our planet.}, }
@article {pmid37742936, year = {2023}, author = {Kinney, PL and Ge, B and Sampath, V and Nadeau, K}, title = {Health-based strategies for overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation and mitigation.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {152}, number = {5}, pages = {1053-1059}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2023.09.012}, pmid = {37742936}, issn = {1097-6825}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; *Air Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis ; Global Warming ; *Hypersensitivity ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses an unequivocal threat to the respiratory health of current and future generations. Human activities-largely through the release of greenhouse gases-are driving rising global temperatures. Without a concerted effort to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to the effects of a changing climate, each increment of warming increases the risk of climate hazards (eg, heat waves, floods, and droughts) that that can adversely affect allergy and immunologic diseases. For instance, wildfires, which release large quantities of particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 μm (an air pollutant), occur with greater intensity, frequency, and duration in a hotter climate. This increases the risk of associated respiratory outcomes such as allergy and asthma. Fortunately, many mitigation and adaptation strategies can be applied to limit the impacts of global warming. Adaptation strategies, ranging from promotions of behavioral changes to infrastructural improvements, have been effectively deployed to increase resilience and alleviate adverse health effects. Mitigation strategies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions can not only address the problem at the source but also provide numerous direct health cobenefits. Although it is possible to limit the impacts of climate change, urgent and sustained action must be taken now. The health and scientific community can play a key role in promoting and implementing climate action to ensure a more sustainable and healthy future.}, }
@article {pmid37741567, year = {2023}, author = {Nayak, SK and Nandimandalam, JR}, title = {Impacts of climate change and coastal salinization on the environmental risk of heavy metal contamination along the odisha coast, India.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {238}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {117175}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117175}, pmid = {37741567}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Adult ; Child ; Humans ; Environmental Monitoring ; Climate Change ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; *Metals, Heavy/analysis ; India ; *Groundwater ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate change-mediated rise in sea level and storm surges, along with indiscriminate exploitation of groundwater along populous coastal regions have led to seawater intrusion. Studies on groundwater salinization and heavy metal contamination trends are limited. Present study investigated the heavy metal contamination, associated risks and provided initial information on the impacts of groundwater salinization on heavy metals along the coastal plains of Odisha, India. Total 50 groundwater samples (25 each in post- and pre-monsoon) were collected and analysed. Concentrations of Fe (44%), Mn (44%), As (4%) and Al (4%) in post-monsoon and Fe (32%), Mn (32%), As (4%), B (8%) and Ni (16%) in pre-monsoon exceeded Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) drinking water limits. High concentrations of heavy metals (Fe, Sr, Mn, B, Ba, Li, Ni and Co) and high EC (>3000 μS/cm) indicated that the groundwater-seawater mixing process has enhanced the leaching and ion exchange of metallic ions in central part of the study area. Multivariate statistical analysis suggested leaching process, seawater intrusion and agricultural practices as the main heavy metal sources in the groundwater. 4% of samples in post- and 16% in pre-monsoon represented high heavy metal pollution index (HPI). Pollution indices indicated the central and south-central regions are highly polluted due to saline water intrusion and high agricultural activities. Ecological risks in the groundwater systems found low (ERI <110) in both seasons. Children population found more susceptible to health risks than adults. Hazard index (HI > 1) has shown significant non-carcinogenic risks where Fe, Mn, As, B, Li and Co are the potential contributors. Incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR >1.0E-03) has suggested high carcinogenic risks, where As and Ni are the major contributors. The study concluded that groundwater salinization could increase the heavy metal content and associated risks. This would help policymakers to take appropriate measures for sustainable coastal groundwater management.}, }
@article {pmid37741554, year = {2023}, author = {Cardenas, A and Fadadu, R and Bunyavanich, S}, title = {Climate change and epigenetic biomarkers in allergic and airway diseases.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {152}, number = {5}, pages = {1060-1072}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2023.09.011}, pmid = {37741554}, issn = {1097-6825}, support = {R01 AI147028/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; U01 AI160082/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; U19 AI136053/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; UM1 AI173380/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01 ES031259/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P42 ES004705/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Prospective Studies ; *Hypersensitivity/genetics ; Biomarkers ; DNA Methylation ; *Respiration Disorders ; Epigenesis, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Human epigenetic variation is associated with both environmental exposures and allergic diseases and can potentially serve as a biomarker connecting climate change with allergy and airway diseases. In this narrative review, we summarize recent human epigenetic studies examining exposure to temperature, precipitation, extreme weather events, and malnutrition to discuss findings as they relate to allergic and airway diseases. Temperature has been the most widely studied exposure, with the studies implicating both short-term and long-term exposures with epigenetic alterations and epigenetic aging. Few studies have examined natural disasters or extreme weather events. The studies available have reported differential DNA methylation of multiple genes and pathways, some of which were previously associated with asthma or allergy. Few studies have integrated climate-related events, epigenetic biomarkers, and allergic disease together. Prospective longitudinal studies are needed along with the collection of target tissues beyond blood samples, such as nasal and skin cells. Finally, global collaboration to increase diverse representation of study participants, particularly those most affected by climate injustice, as well as strengthen replication, validation, and harmonization of measurements will be needed to elucidate the impacts of climate change on the human epigenome.}, }
@article {pmid37741408, year = {2023}, author = {Cao, K and Liu, X and Fu, Q and Wang, Y and Liu, D and Li, T and Li, M}, title = {Dynamic and harmonious allocation of irrigation water resources under climate change: A SWAT-based multi-objective nonlinear framework.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {905}, number = {}, pages = {167221}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167221}, pmid = {37741408}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Efficient allocation of water resources in irrigation districts can alleviate regional water shortages and promote sustainable irrigated agriculture development. However, existing research on water resource allocation in irrigation districts does not address the lack of coordination within the "diversion-delivery-irrigation" chain for multiple water sources and users in a changing environment. Hence, poor water supply and demand matching, low efficiency and poor climate change responses pose challenges for efficient water resource allocation in irrigation districts. Therefore, this study couples the SWAT runoff simulation model with a multiobjective nonlinear programming model and proposes a weather-driven dynamic and optimal allocation model for multiple water sources. This model accounts for fluctuations in water supply and fine-tunes the allocation of water resources to different water sources, different channels and different crop fertility periods in the irrigation area. The model is designed to achieve synergistic improvements in water supply and demand, economic efficiency, equity in water distribution and efficiency in water use. The model was applied to the Qindeli Irrigation District in Heilongjiang Province. The results show that an increase in water supply at the head of the channel promotes a synergistic increase in economic efficiency and water supply and demand matching. This model can improve water use efficiency under water scarcity by reasonably optimizing the water use structure of the irrigation district. Compared with the traditional irrigation method, the optimized model saves 4 % of water and increases yield by 399 kg/ha, economic efficiency by 0.2 yuan per cubic meter of water, water use efficiency by 9 %, and water supply and demand matching by >80 % at all stages of fertility. The model ensures that water resources are allocated in an equitable manner at all levels.}, }
@article {pmid37741287, year = {2023}, author = {The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, }, title = {Air pollution, climate change, and lung health in Europe.}, journal = {The Lancet. Respiratory medicine}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {851}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-2600(23)00345-4}, pmid = {37741287}, issn = {2213-2619}, }
@article {pmid37740940, year = {2024}, author = {Ran, WW and Luo, GM and Zhao, YQ and Li, C and Dietrich, CH and Song, YH}, title = {Climate change may drive the distribution of tribe Zyginelline pests in China and the Indo-China Peninsula to shift towards higher latitude river-mountain systems.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {80}, number = {2}, pages = {613-626}, doi = {10.1002/ps.7788}, pmid = {37740940}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {32260120//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; No.1252019QianjiaoKeyanFa//the World Top Discipline Program of Guizhou Province: Karst Ecoenvironment Sciences/ ; [2020]7-18//the Science and Technology Project of Guiyang City/ ; [2021]013//the Innovation Group Project of Education Department of Guizhou Province/ ; Qiankehejichu-ZK[2023]General257//the Natural Science Foundation of Guizhou Province/ ; Qiankehepingtairencai-GCC[2023]032//the Training Program for High-level Innovative Talents of Guizhou Province/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Rivers ; Models, Theoretical ; Cold Temperature ; China ; *Hemiptera ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Tribe Zyginelline leafhoppers can transmit plant viruses and are important pests that affect agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry, causing serious economic losses. The potential distribution patterns of Zyginellini will change under climate change. Therefore, the best-performing random forest and maximum entropy models among 12 commonly used ecological niche models, alongside an ensemble model, were selected to predict the changes in habitat suitability distribution of Zyginellini under current and future climate scenarios [represented by two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP126 and SSP585, for three periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s)] in China and the Indo-China Peninsula for the first time.<br><br>RESULTS: The results revealed that the distribution of Zyginellini was mainly dominated by minimum temperature of coldest month. Under current and future climate scenarios, Zyginellini was mostly distributed southeast of the 400&#x2009;mm equivalent precipitation line in China, and Vietnam. Under the future SSP126 scenario, the alert areas will mainly be concentrated in Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Hebei in China, alongside Myanmar and Thailand in the Indo-China Peninsula. Meanwhile, in the SSP585 scenario, the alert areas in China will increase, whereas there will be little change in the Indo-China Peninsula. Interestingly, from the current to the future, the cores of Zyginelline distribution occurred around rivers and mountains, and shifted from Guizhou along the Yuanjiang River system to higher latitudes in Hunan.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Zyginellini prefers higher latitude river-mountain systems under climate change. Our results will contribute to effective pest control strategies and biogeographical research for Zyginellini alongside other Cicadellidae insects. &#xa9; 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid37739078, year = {2023}, author = {Ju, Q and Shen, T and Zhao, W and Wang, X and Jiang, P and Wang, G and Liu, Y and Wang, Q and Yu, Z}, title = {Simulation and prediction of changes in maximum freeze depth in the source region of the Yellow River under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {905}, number = {}, pages = {167136}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167136}, pmid = {37739078}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) is located at the edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), which is completely covered by frozen ground. Due to relatively higher temperatures, the frozen ground in the SRYR is particularly fragile and susceptible to the impacts of global climate change. This study discusses the maximum freeze depth (MFD) of frozen ground in the SRYR, including analysis of measured data at the stations, comparison of simulation models, and projection of future changes. The MFD of frozen ground recorded at nine meteorological stations within the SRYR ranged from a few tens of centimeters to more than two meters. The decreasing trend of MFD was recorded except for a few stations from 1997 to 2017, with a maximum rate of -22.8 cm/10a. The decreasing rate of MFD for the whole SRYR from 1997 to 2017 is -10.8 cm/10a. Furthermore, we assessed the performance of three simulation methods: Stefan equation, multiple linear regression, and BP neural network predicting the MFD using the measured data. The Stefan equation exhibited limited accuracy in simulating the MFD, while the BP neural network demonstrated remarkable performance, with a correlation coefficient R of 0.949. In addition, we evaluated the applicability of different global climate models (GCMs) in the SRYR, identified the optimal model, and combined it with the BP neural network model to predict future MFD change. Among the five climate models, the BCC-CSM2-MR model and ensemble model fit the measured precipitation and air temperature well. The projected results based on the BCC-CSM2-MR model and ensemble model indicate that the MFD of different stations in the SRYR and the whole region will still tend to decrease in the future. Our results contribute to understanding the response of cold region frozen ground to climate change and provide available data.}, }
@article {pmid37737135, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Climate Change Archive.}, journal = {The journal of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh}, volume = {53}, number = {3}, pages = {226}, doi = {10.1177/14782715231195483}, pmid = {37737135}, issn = {2042-8189}, }
@article {pmid37735448, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, Y and Cai, W and Lin, X and Li, Z and Zhang, Y}, title = {Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {5887}, pmid = {37735448}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {42176218//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a consequential climate phenomenon affecting global extreme weather events often with largescale socioeconomic impacts. To what extent the impact affects the macroeconomy, how long the impact lasts, and how the impact may change in a warming climate are important questions for the field. Using a smooth nonlinear climate-economy model fitted with historical data, here we find a damaging impact from an El Niño which increases for a further three years after initial shock, amounting to multi-trillion US dollars in economic loss; we attribute a loss of US$2.1 T and US$3.9 T globally to the 1997-98 and 2015-16 extreme El Niño events, far greater than that based on tangible losses. We find impacts from La Niña are asymmetric and weaker, and estimate a gain of only US$0.06 T from the 1998-99 extreme La Niña event. Under climate change, economic loss grows exponentially with increased ENSO variability. Under a high-emission scenario, increased ENSO variability causes an additional median loss of US$33 T to the global economy at a 3% discount rate aggregated over the remainder of the 21st century. Thus, exacerbated economic damage from changing ENSO in a warming climate should be considered in assessments of mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid37734978, year = {2023}, author = {Reed Dunnick, N}, title = {Communication, Cost, and Climate Change.}, journal = {Academic radiology}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {2439}, doi = {10.1016/j.acra.2023.08.019}, pmid = {37734978}, issn = {1878-4046}, }
@article {pmid37734870, year = {2023}, author = {Carew, MT and Keogh, M and Gliksohn, A and Mbuli-Robertson, S and Miti-Drummond, MA}, title = {Unprotected: the consequences of climate change for the health of persons with albinism.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {37734870}, issn = {2059-7908}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Albinism ; }, }
@article {pmid37734597, year = {2023}, author = {Jiménez-Bonilla, A and Rodríguez-Rodríguez, M and Yanes, JL and Gázquez, F}, title = {Hydrological modelling and evolution of lakes and playa-lakes in southern Spain constrained by geology, human management and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {905}, number = {}, pages = {167183}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167183}, pmid = {37734597}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The hydrological functioning of wetlands in S Spain is poorly understood. We perform a 22-years hydrological modelling of seven playa-lakes located in a semi-arid region of southern Spain, including dry and wet periods. To do that, we applied a hydrological balance model to reconstruct past lake water levels. In addition, we investigated the hydrochemistry of the water, the basin bathymetry, and the geological setting of the watersheds, acquiring new lithology and active structures data. Once the models were constrained, scenarios considering increases on temperature and human management were implemented, and discussed. The water balance is simplified to precipitation (water input) and basin discharge (evapotranspiration), as the lakes are disconnected from groundwater because of the low-permeability substrate. In addition, unlike in previous studies, we add overflows to the modelling. The results of the model agree with actual lake water monitoring data (R[2] > 0.8). We observed that the hydroperiods of some of these lakes vary from permanent lakes to ephemeral, depending strongly on the basin bathymetry. Lakes with steeply margins show longer hydroperiods, whilst it is shorter for low-lying floor playa-lakes. In addition, we observed that steeply lake margins respond to active faults and/or lithological changes. To forecast the effects of climate change on the lake hydroperiods, we applied a 1 °C increase in average temperature in our hydrological modelling. The hydroperiod is significantly reduced for ephemeral playa-lakes, whilst is barely affected in permanent lakes. Moreover, we detected the high sensitivity of ephemeral playa-lakes to the anthropogenic management, including siltation, plant colonization and changes watershed surface.}, }
@article {pmid37733803, year = {2023}, author = {Engloner, AI and Vargha, M and Kós, P and Borsodi, AK}, title = {Planktonic and epilithic prokaryota community compositions in a large temperate river reflect climate change related seasonal shifts.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {e0292057}, pmid = {37733803}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Plankton/genetics ; Climate Change ; Seasons ; Rivers ; Global Warming ; *Gammaproteobacteria ; }, abstract = {In freshwaters, microbial communities are of outstanding importance both from ecological and public health perspectives, however, they are threatened by the impact of global warming. To reveal how different prokaryotic communities in a large temperate river respond to environment conditions related to climate change, the present study provides the first detailed insight into the composition and spatial and year-round temporal variations of planktonic and epilithic prokaryotic community. Microbial diversity was studied using high-throughput next generation amplicon sequencing. Sampling was carried out monthly in the midstream and the littoral zone of the Danube, upstream and downstream from a large urban area. Result demonstrated that river habitats predominantly determine the taxonomic composition of the microbiota; diverse and well-differentiated microbial communities developed in water and epilithon, with higher variance in the latter. The composition of bacterioplankton clearly followed the prolongation of the summer resulting from climate change, while the epilithon community was less responsive. Rising water temperatures was associated with increased abundances of many taxa (such as phylum Actinobacteria, class Gammaproteobacteria and orders Synechococcales, Alteromonadales, Chitinophagales, Pseudomonadales, Rhizobiales and Xanthomonadales), and the composition of the microbiota also reflected changes of several further environmental factors (such as turbidity, TOC, electric conductivity, pH and the concentration of phosphate, sulphate, nitrate, total nitrogen and the dissolved oxygen). The results indicate that shift in microbial community responding to changing environment may be of crucial importance in the decomposition of organic compounds (including pollutants and xenobiotics), the transformation and accumulation of heavy metals and the occurrence of pathogens or antimicrobial resistant organisms.}, }
@article {pmid37732761, year = {2023}, author = {Davidson, EA and Semrau, JD and Nguyen, NK and , }, title = {Improved scientific knowledge of methanogenesis and methanotrophy needed to slow climate change during the next 30 years.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0205923}, pmid = {37732761}, issn = {2150-7511}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Nitrous Oxide ; *Waste Management ; Livestock ; Methane ; }, abstract = {Owing to the high radiative forcing and short atmospheric residence time of methane, abatement of methane emissions offers a crucial opportunity for effective, rapid slowing of climate change. Here, we report on a colloquium jointly sponsored by the American Society for Microbiology and the American Geophysical Union, where 35 national and international experts from academia, the private sector, and government met to review understanding of the microbial processes of methanogenesis and methanotrophy. The colloquium addressed how advanced knowledge of the microbiology of methane production and consumption could inform waste management, including landfills and composts, and three areas of agricultural management: enteric emissions from ruminant livestock, manure management, and rice cultivation. Support for both basic and applied research in microbiology and its applications is urgently needed to accelerate the realization of the large potential for these near-term solutions to counteract climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37731950, year = {2023}, author = {Liang, S and Zhong, Q and Zhou, H and Liao, Y and You, J and Meng, J and Feng, C and Lin, C}, title = {Double-edged sword of technological progress to climate change depends on positioning in global value chains.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {pgad288}, pmid = {37731950}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {Technological progress (TP) is a double-edged sword to global climate change. This study for the first time reveals rebound and mitigation effects of efficiency-related TP in global value chains (GVCs) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The integrated effects of TP depend on the positioning of sectors in GVCs. The cost-saving TP in upstream sectors would stimulate downstream demand. This produces stronger rebound effects than mitigation potentials and leads to global GHG emission increments (e.g. TP in the gas sector of China and petroleum and coal products sector of South Korea). In contrast, sectors located in the trailing end of GVCs have greater potentials for GHG emission mitigation through TP, mainly due to the reduction of upstream inputs. (e.g. the construction sector of China and dwelling sector of the United States). Global GHG emissions and production outputs can be either a trade-off or a win-win relationship on account of TP than rebound effects, because TP in different sectors could possibly increase or decrease the emission intensity of GVCs. This study could recognize the most productive spots for GHG emission mitigation through efficiency-related TP. It provides a new perspective for international cooperation to promote global GHG emission mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid37731873, year = {2023}, author = {Tian, J and Zheng, X and Sun, Y}, title = {Fostering public climate change discussions from a social interaction perspective.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1258150}, pmid = {37731873}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Public discussions on climate change, as a form of social interaction, are widely recognized as effective tools for promoting collective action. However, there is limited research on examining the factors that influence climate change discussions from a social interaction perspective. In the present study, we conducted a large sample (N = 1,169) survey to investigate personal (such as self-efficacy and personal response efficacy) and others' (such as perceived others' response efficacy and social norms) factors influencing climate change discussions from a social interaction perspective. The results showed that (i) for people with high climate change perceptions, personal response efficacy, self-efficacy, and social norms have positive effects on climate change discussions, but the effect of perceived others' response efficacy on climate change discussion is not significant; (ii) for people with low climate change perceptions, self-efficacy and social norms have positive effects on climate change discussions, but the effects of personal response efficacy and perceived others' response efficacy on climate change discussion are not significant; (iii) irrespective of individuals' high or low perceptions of climate change, social norm remains the most important predictor of climate change discussions. These findings make valuable contributions to the theoretical literature and intervention efforts regarding climate change discussions from a social interaction perspective.}, }
@article {pmid37730944, year = {2023}, author = {Bassullu, C and Sanchez-Paus Díaz, A}, title = {Open Foris Collect Earth: a remote sensing sampling survey of Azerbaijan to support climate change reporting in the land use, land use change, and forestry.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {10}, pages = {1236}, pmid = {37730944}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Forestry ; Azerbaijan ; *Climate Change ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Environmental Monitoring ; }, abstract = {Land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) are critical in climate change mitigation. Producing or collecting activity data for LULUCF is essential in developing national greenhouse gas inventories, national communications, biennial update reports, and nationally determined contributions to meet international commitments under climate change. Collect Earth is a free, publicly accessible software for monitoring dynamics between all land use classes: forestlands, croplands, grasslands, wetlands, settlements, and other lands. Collect Earth supports countries in monitoring the trends in land use and land cover over time by applying a sample-based approach and generating reliable, high-quality, consistent, accurate, transparent, robust, comparable, and complete activity data through augmented visual interpretation for climate change reporting. This article reports forest extent estimates in Azerbaijan, analyzing 7782 0.5-ha sampling units through an augmented visual interpretation of very high spatial and temporal resolution images on the Google Earth platform. The results revealed that in 2016, tree cover existed in 31.9% of total land, equal to 2,751,167 ha and 1,301,188 ha or 15.1% of the total land, with a 5.4% sampling error covered by forests. The estimate is 15 to 25% higher than the previous estimates, equal to 169,418 to 260,888 ha of forest that was never reported in previous studies.}, }
@article {pmid37730519, year = {2023}, author = {Obeng-Nyarkoh, PI}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases through the lens of race and racism.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {872-873}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2023.08.012}, pmid = {37730519}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {Humans ; *Racism ; Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid37730044, year = {2023}, author = {Shen, Y and Xu, L and Guo, H and Ismail, H and Ran, X and Zhang, C and Peng, Y and Zhao, Y and Liu, W and Ding, Y and Tang, S}, title = {Mitigating the adverse effect of warming on rice canopy and rhizosphere microbial community by nitrogen application: An approach to counteract future climate change for rice.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {905}, number = {}, pages = {167151}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167151}, pmid = {37730044}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Rhizosphere ; *Oryza ; Climate Change ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Soil Microbiology ; Soil ; *Microbiota ; }, abstract = {The adverse impact of climate change on crop production continues to increase, necessitating the development of suitable strategies to mitigate these effects and improve food security. Several studies have revealed how global warming negatively impacts the grain-filling stage of rice and that this effect could be mitigated by nitrogen; however, the impact of nitrogen application on rice canopy and rhizosphere microbial communities remains unclear. We conducted a study using an open-field warming system. Results showed that warming influenced rice canopy by decreasing aboveground biomass and harvest index, whereas nitrogen application had positive effect on rice production under warming conditions by increasing the plant nitrogen content, biomass, harvest index and soil fertilities. Moreover, soil ammonium nitrogen (NH4[+]-N) and nitrate nitrogen (NO3[-]-N) contents were significantly decreased under warming, which were higher after nitrogen application. Notably, warming and nitrogen fertilizer caused 19 % (P < 0.01) and 7 % (P < 0.05) variations, respectively, in the β diversity of the microbial community, respectively. The impact of warming was significant on NH4[+]-N-related microorganisms; however, this impact was weakened by nitrogen application for microbes in the rhizosphere. This study demonstrated that enhanced nitrogen fertilizer can alleviate the adverse impact of warming by weakening its effects on rhizosphere microbes, improving soil fertility, promoting rice nitrogen uptake, and increasing the aboveground biomass and harvest index. These findings provide an important theoretical basis for developing practical, responsive cultivation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid37729181, year = {2023}, author = {Lettrich, MD and Asaro, MJ and Borggaard, DL and Dick, DM and Griffis, RB and Litz, JA and Orphanides, CD and Palka, DL and Soldevilla, MS and Balmer, B and Chavez, S and Cholewiak, D and Claridge, D and Ewing, RY and Fazioli, KL and Fertl, D and Fougeres, EM and Gannon, D and Garrison, L and Gilbert, J and Gorgone, A and Hohn, A and Horstman, S and Josephson, B and Kenney, RD and Kiszka, JJ and Maze-Foley, K and McFee, W and Mullin, KD and Murray, K and Pendleton, DE and Robbins, J and Roberts, JJ and Rodriguez-Ferrer, G and Ronje, EI and Rosel, PE and Speakman, T and Stanistreet, JE and Stevens, T and Stolen, M and Moore, RT and Vollmer, NL and Wells, R and Whitehead, HR and Whitt, A}, title = {Vulnerability to climate change of United States marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {e0290643}, pmid = {37729181}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Gulf of Mexico ; Caribbean Region ; Mammals ; *Caniformia ; Cetacea ; }, abstract = {Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37727770, year = {2022}, author = {Crane, K and Li, L and Subramanian, P and Rovit, E and Liu, J}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health: A Review of Empirical Evidence, Mechanisms and Implications.}, journal = {Atmosphere}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {37727770}, issn = {2073-4433}, support = {P30 ES013508/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 HD087485/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R25 ES021649/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is an existential threat whose influences continue to increase in severity. It is pivotal to understand the implications of climate change and their effects on mental health. This integrative review aims to summarize the relevant evidence examining the harm climate change may have on mental health, suggest potential mechanisms and discuss implications. Empirical evidence has begun to indicate that negative mental health outcomes are a relevant and notable consequence of climate change. Specifically, these negative outcomes range from increased rates of psychiatric diagnoses such as depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder to higher measures of suicide, aggression and crime. Potential mechanisms are thought to include neuroinflammatory responses to stress, maladaptive serotonergic receptors and detrimental effects on one's own physical health, as well as the community wellbeing. While climate change and mental health are salient areas of research, the evidence examining an association is limited. Therefore, further work should be conducted to delineate exact pathways of action to explain the mediators and mechanisms of the interaction between climate change and mental health.}, }
@article {pmid37725250, year = {2024}, author = {Felton, A and Belyazid, S and Eggers, J and Nordström, EM and Öhman, K}, title = {Publisher Correction: Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for production forests: Trade-offs, synergies, and uncertainties in biodiversity and ecosystem services delivery in Northern Europe.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, pages = {17-19}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-023-01925-1}, pmid = {37725250}, issn = {1654-7209}, }
@article {pmid37725125, year = {2024}, author = {Maline, GE and Goldfarb, DS}, title = {Climate change and kidney stones.}, journal = {Current opinion in nephrology and hypertension}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {89-96}, pmid = {37725125}, issn = {1473-6543}, mesh = {Humans ; United States ; *Climate Change ; Cities ; Hot Temperature ; *Kidney Calculi/epidemiology/etiology ; Prevalence ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Kidney stones affect an increasing proportion of the population. We suggest that these trends are in part influenced by exposure to higher temperatures as a result of climate change and urbanization. The changing epidemiology of kidney stones is a topic worthy of discussion due to the economic and healthcare burden the condition poses as well as the quality-of-life disruption faced by individuals with kidney stones.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: The relationship between heat and kidney stones is well supported. Exposure to high temperatures has been shown to increase risk for stone development within a short time frame. Effects are modified by factors such as sex, comorbid conditions, and population vulnerability and adaptability. Urban heat islands (UHIs) likely exaggerate the effect of increasing global surface temperature. The concentration of UHIs often coincides with historic redlining practices in the United States, potentially contributing to observed disparities in kidney health among minoritized populations. As global surface temperature increases and urbanization trends continue, a greater proportion of the world's population is exposed to significant temperature extremes each year, leading to the expectation that kidney stone prevalence will continue to increase.<br><br>SUMMARY: This work describes the effect of increasing global surface temperature as a result of climate change on kidney stone disease and kidney health. These effects may result in further perpetuation of significant kidney stone related social disparities. We suggest strategies to mitigate the effects of heat exposure on stone formation.}, }
@article {pmid37724697, year = {2023}, author = {Gillingham, P and Thomas, CD}, title = {Protected areas do already act as steppingstones for species responding to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {23}, pages = {6439-6440}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16941}, pmid = {37724697}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; *Moths ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, }
@article {pmid37722803, year = {2023}, author = {Sharma, A and Smyth, L and Jian, H and Vargas, N and Bowles, D and Hunter, A}, title = {Are we teaching the health impacts of climate change in a clinically relevant way? A systematic narrative review of biomechanism-focused climate change learning outcomes in medical curricula.}, journal = {Medical teacher}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1080/0142159X.2023.2256963}, pmid = {37722803}, issn = {1466-187X}, abstract = {PURPOSE: Introducing biomedical approaches to the health impacts of climate change can improve medical student engagement with relevant climate-related issues, improve the development of medical schemas, and minimise displacement into crowded medical curricula. This paper aims to systematically review the medical education curricula related to climate change, with a particular focus on systems-based biomechanisms for the health impacts of climate change. We do this to provide a clear agenda for further development of learning outcomes (LOs) in this area to maximize the clinical applicability of this knowledge.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: A systematic review was undertaken following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA; Liberati et&#xa0;al. 2009) guidelines for both the published and grey literature. Five databases (PubMed, SCOPUS, ERIC, Open Access Thesis and Dissertation, and Proquest Global Dissertation and Theses) were searched for works published between 2011 and June 2023. Full texts that contained LOs were the main inclusion criteria for the final review. Descriptive and content extraction guided the final narrative synthesis.<br><br>RESULTS: Analysis indicated that biomechanism-related LOs represented about 25% of each published LO set, on average. These outcomes were primarily at the "understand" level of Bloom's taxonomy and were spread across a range of body systems and climate-change aspects. Infectious diseases and extreme heat were strong focuses. Authorship analysis indicated that the majority of these sets of published LOs are from Western contexts and authored by researchers and educators with medical and population health qualifications.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Biomechanism-focused teaching about the health impacts of climate change is relatively rare in published curricula. Of the available sets of LOs, the majority are sourced from Western authors and are focused on a fairly circumscribed set of biomedical topics. There is scope to both broaden and deepen curriculum in this area, and we would recommend the field prioritise collaboration with medical educators from the Global South, where the effects of climate change are already the most acutely felt.}, }
@article {pmid37722136, year = {2023}, author = {Cole, JC and Gillis, AJ and van der Linden, S and Cohen, MA and Vandenbergh, MP}, title = {Social Psychological Perspectives on Political Polarization: Insights and Implications for Climate Change.}, journal = {Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {17456916231186409}, doi = {10.1177/17456916231186409}, pmid = {37722136}, issn = {1745-6924}, abstract = {Political polarization is a barrier to enacting policy solutions to global issues. Social psychology has a rich history of studying polarization, and there is an important opportunity to define and refine its contributions to the present political realities. We do so in the context of one of the most pressing modern issues: climate change. We synthesize the literature on political polarization and its applications to climate change, and we propose lines of further research and intervention design. We focus on polarization in the United States, examining other countries when literature was available. The polarization literature emphasizes two types of mechanisms of political polarization: (1) individual-level psychological processes related to political ideology and (2) group-level psychological processes related to partisan identification. Interventions that address group-level processes can be more effective than those that address individual-level processes. Accordingly, we emphasize the promise of interventions leveraging superordinate identities, correcting misperceived norms, and having trusted leaders communicate about climate change. Behavioral interventions like these that are grounded in scientific research are one of our most promising tools to achieve the behavioral wedge that we need to address climate change and to make progress on other policy issues.}, }
@article {pmid37721806, year = {2023}, author = {Holzmann, KL and Walls, RL and Wiens, JJ}, title = {Accelerating local extinction associated with very recent climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {1877-1886}, doi = {10.1111/ele.14303}, pmid = {37721806}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {DEB-1655690//U.S. National Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; *Lizards/genetics ; Hot Temperature ; Extinction, Biological ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change has already caused local extinction in many plants and animals, based on surveys spanning many decades. As climate change accelerates, the pace of these extinctions may also accelerate, potentially leading to large-scale, species-level extinctions. We tested this hypothesis in a montane lizard. We resurveyed 18 mountain ranges in 2021-2022 after only ~7 years. We found rates of local extinction among the fastest ever recorded, which have tripled in the past ~7 years relative to the preceding ~42 years. Further, climate change generated local extinction in ~7 years similar to that seen in other organisms over ~70 years. Yet, contrary to expectations, populations at two of the hottest sites survived. We found that genomic data helped predict which populations survived and which went extinct. Overall, we show the increasing risk to biodiversity posed by accelerating climate change and the opportunity to study its effects over surprisingly brief timescales.}, }
@article {pmid37718608, year = {2023}, author = {Pisor, A and Lansing, JS and Magargal, K}, title = {Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {1889}, pages = {20220390}, pmid = {37718608}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Adaptation, Biological ; }, abstract = {There is global consensus that we must immediately prioritize climate change adaptation-change in response to or anticipation of risks from climate change. Some researchers and policymakers urge 'transformative change', a complete break from past practices, yet report having little data on whether new practices reduce the risks communities face, even over the short term. However, researchers have some leads: human communities have long generated solutions to changing climate, and scientists who study culture have examples of effective and persistent solutions. This theme issue discusses cultural adaptation to climate change, and in this paper, we review how processes of biological adaptation, including innovation, modification, selective retention and transmission, shape the landscapes decision-makers care about-from which solutions emerge in communities, to the spread of effective adaptations, to regional or global collective action. We introduce a comprehensive portal of data and models on cultural adaptation to climate change, and we outline ways forward. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.}, }
@article {pmid37718605, year = {2023}, author = {Clark Barrett, H and Armstrong, J}, title = {Climate change adaptation and the back of the invisible hand.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {1889}, pages = {20220406}, pmid = {37718605}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Hand ; *Cultural Evolution ; Human Migration ; Technology ; }, abstract = {A good deal of contemporary work in cultural evolutionary theory focuses on the adaptive significance of culture. In this paper, we make the case that scientifically accurate and politically feasible responses to the climate crisis require a complex understanding of human cultural practices of niche construction that moves beyond the adaptive significance of culture. We develop this thesis in two related ways. First, we argue that cumulative cultural practices of niche construction can generate stable equilibria and runaway selection processes that result in long-term existential risks within and across cultural groups. We dub this the back of the invisible hand. Second, we argue that the ability of cultural groups to innovate technological solutions to environmental problems is highly constrained in ways that are exacerbated by sustained intergroup conflict, inequality and by inherently unpredictable cascades in climate change and human migration patterns. After developing these theoretical points about human cultural practices of niche construction in detail, we conclude our discussion with some tentative practical suggestions about the way that cultural evolutionary history can more fruitfully be used in efforts to remit the climate crisis and contribute to sustainable practices of human climate change adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.}, }
@article {pmid37718602, year = {2023}, author = {Turner, MA and Singleton, AL and Harris, MJ and Harryman, I and Lopez, CA and Arthur, RF and Muraida, C and Jones, JH}, title = {Minority-group incubators and majority-group reservoirs support the diffusion of climate change adaptations.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {1889}, pages = {20220401}, pmid = {37718602}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Minority Groups ; Incubators ; Adaptation, Psychological ; *Cultural Evolution ; }, abstract = {Successful climate change adaptation depends on the spread and maintenance of adaptive behaviours. Current theory suggests that the heterogeneity of metapopulation structure can help adaptations diffuse throughout a population. In this paper, we develop an agent-based model of the spread of adaptations in populations with minority-majority metapopulation structure, where subpopulations learn more or less frequently from their own group compared to the other group. In our simulations, minority-majority-structured populations with moderate degrees of in-group preference better spread and maintained an adaptation compared to populations with more equal-sized groups and weak homophily. Minority groups act as incubators for an adaptation, while majority groups act as reservoirs for an adaptation once it has spread widely. This means that adaptations diffuse throughout populations better when minority groups start out knowing an adaptation, as Indigenous populations often do, while cohesion among majority groups further promotes adaptation diffusion. Our work advances the goal of this theme issue by developing new theoretical insights and demonstrating the utility of cultural evolutionary theory and methods as important tools in the nascent science of culture that climate change adaptation needs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.}, }
@article {pmid37718601, year = {2023}, author = {Scheinsohn, V and Muñoz, AS and Mondini, M}, title = {Climate change and long-term human behaviour in the Neotropics: an archaeological view from the Global South.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {1889}, pages = {20220403}, pmid = {37718601}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Humans ; *Archaeology ; *Climate Change ; Knowledge ; South America ; }, abstract = {In this paper, we argue for the inclusion of archaeology in discussions about how humans have contributed to and dealt with climate change, especially in the long term. We suggest Niche Construction Theory as a suitable framework to that end. In order to take into account both human and environmental variability, we also advocate for a situated perspective that includes the Global South as a source of knowledge production, and the Neotropics as a relevant case study to consider. To illustrate this, we review the mid-Holocene Hypsithermal period in the southern Puna and continental Patagonia, both in southern South America, by assessing the challenges posed by this climate period and the archaeological signatures of the time from a Niche Construction Theory perspective. Finally, we emphasize the importance of these considerations for policymaking. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.}, }
@article {pmid37718600, year = {2023}, author = {Waring, TM and Niles, MT and Kling, MM and Miller, SN and Hébert-Dufresne, L and Sabzian, H and Gotelli, N and McGill, BJ}, title = {Operationalizing cultural adaptation to climate change: contemporary examples from United States agriculture.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {1889}, pages = {20220397}, pmid = {37718600}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Agriculture ; Biological Evolution ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Cultural Evolution ; }, abstract = {It has been proposed that climate adaptation research can benefit from an evolutionary approach. But related empirical research is lacking. We advance the evolutionary study of climate adaptation with two case studies from contemporary United States agriculture. First, we define 'cultural adaptation to climate change' as a mechanistic process of population-level cultural change. We argue this definition enables rigorous comparisons, yields testable hypotheses from mathematical theory and distinguishes adaptive change, non-adaptive change and desirable policy outcomes. Next, we develop an operational approach to identify 'cultural adaptation to climate change' based on established empirical criteria. We apply this approach to data on crop choices and the use of cover crops between 2008 and 2021 from the United States. We find evidence that crop choices are adapting to local trends in two separate climate variables in some regions of the USA. But evidence suggests that cover cropping may be adapting more to the economic environment than climatic conditions. Further research is needed to characterize the process of cultural adaptation, particularly the routes and mechanisms of cultural transmission. Furthermore, climate adaptation policy could benefit from research on factors that differentiate regions exhibiting adaptive trends in crop choice from those that do not. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.}, }
@article {pmid37718598, year = {2023}, author = {Magargal, K and Wilson, K and Chee, S and Campbell, MJ and Bailey, V and Dennison, PE and Anderegg, WRL and Cachelin, A and Brewer, S and Codding, BF}, title = {The impacts of climate change, energy policy and traditional ecological practices on future firewood availability for Diné (Navajo) People.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {1889}, pages = {20220394}, pmid = {37718598}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Policy ; Anthropology, Cultural ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Local-scale human-environment relationships are fundamental to energy sovereignty, and in many contexts, Indigenous ecological knowledge (IEK) is integral to such relationships. For example, Tribal leaders in southwestern USA identify firewood harvested from local woodlands as vital. For Diné people, firewood is central to cultural and physical survival and offers a reliable fuel for energy embedded in local ecological systems. However, there are two acute problems: first, climate change-induced drought will diminish local sources of firewood; second, policies aimed at reducing reliance on greenhouse-gas-emitting energy sources may limit alternatives like coal for home use, thereby increasing firewood demand to unsustainable levels. We develop an agent-based model trained with ecological and community-generated ethnographic data to assess the future of firewood availability under varying climate, demand and IEK scenarios. We find that the long-term sustainability of Indigenous firewood harvesting is maximized under low-emissions and low-to-moderate demand scenarios when harvesters adhere to IEK guidance. Results show how Indigenous ecological practices and resulting ecological legacies maintain resilient socio-environmental systems. Insights offered focus on creating energy equity for Indigenous people and broad lessons about how Indigenous knowledge is integral for adapting to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.}, }
@article {pmid37718597, year = {2023}, author = {Kramer, KL and Hackman, JV}, title = {Small-scale farmer responses to the double exposure of climate change and market integration.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {1889}, pages = {20220396}, pmid = {37718597}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Knowledge ; Policy ; Seeds ; }, abstract = {Anthropologists have long studied how small-scale societies manage climate variation. Here, we investigate how Yucatec Maya subsistence farmers respond to climate stress, and the ways in which market integration may enhance or disturb response stategies. Using information on harvest returns, climate perceptions, household economics and helping networks, modelling results show that as farmers rely more on market inputs (e.g. seed, tractors, fertilizer) for a successful yield, the reasons given for a bad harvest shift from climate variables to access to quality inputs. We also find that social and economic diversification is key to mediating a household's experience of climate and market shocks. The Maya are astute stewards of climate knowledge, and have effective social and economic means to mitigate potential fluctuations in food availability. In the transition from a subsistence to a market integrated economy, these traditional strategies become strained. Reliance on market inputs forges a more rigid food production system that conflicts with the diversity and flexibility on which traditional strategies depend to manage climate variation. Moving forward, the best policies would be those that facilitate maintaining an equal footing in both a subsistence maize economy, while incorporating new market opportunities. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.}, }
@article {pmid37718596, year = {2023}, author = {Hillemann, F and Beheim, BA and Ready, E}, title = {Socio-economic predictors of Inuit hunting choices and their implications for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {1889}, pages = {20220395}, pmid = {37718596}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Bayes Theorem ; Caniformia ; *Climate Change/economics ; *Hunting/economics ; *Inuit ; Poverty ; Seals, Earless ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Social Determinants of Health/economics/ethnology ; Arctic Regions ; Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {In the Arctic, seasonal variation in the accessibility of the land, sea ice and open waters influences which resources can be harvested safely and efficiently. Climate stressors are also increasingly affecting access to subsistence resources. Within Inuit communities, people differ in their involvement with subsistence activities, but little is known about how engagement in the cash economy (time and money available) and other socio-economic factors shape the food production choices of Inuit harvesters, and their ability to adapt to rapid ecological change. We analyse 281 foraging trips involving 23 Inuit harvesters from Kangiqsujuaq, Nunavik, Canada using a Bayesian approach modelling both patch choice and within-patch success. Gender and income predict Inuit harvest strategies: while men, especially men from low-income households, often visit patches with a relatively low success probability, women and high-income hunters generally have a higher propensity to choose low-risk patches. Inland hunting, marine hunting and fishing differ in the required equipment and effort, and hunters may have to shift their subsistence activities if certain patches become less profitable or less safe owing to high costs of transportation or climate change (e.g. navigate larger areas inland instead of targeting seals on the sea ice). Our finding that household income predicts patch choice suggests that the capacity to maintain access to country foods depends on engagement with the cash economy. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.}, }
@article {pmid37716395, year = {2023}, author = {Feng, H and Kang, P and Deng, Z and Zhao, W and Hua, M and Zhu, X and Wang, Z}, title = {The impact of climate change and human activities to vegetation carbon sequestration variation in Sichuan and Chongqing.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {238}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {117138}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117138}, pmid = {37716395}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Human Activities ; China ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Exploring the vegetation carbon cycle and the factors influencing vegetation carbon sequestration in areas with complex plateau-basin topography and fragile ecosystems is crucial. In this study, spatial and temporal characteristics of carbon sequestration by vegetation in Sichuan and Chongqing from 2010 to 2020 and the influencing factors were investigated through simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) using the modified Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) and the Thornthwaite Memorial (TM) model and using chemical equations of photochemical reactions. The results indicated that: The spatial distribution of carbon sequestration capacity (CSC) trends showed an increase in the east (the most prominent increased trend along the mountainous areas of the basin) and a decrease in the west (western Sichuan plateau). Differences exist in the impact factors of CSC in different regions. In the basin margins and mountainous areas, where the proportion of forests was high, a combination of climate change and human activities contributed to the increase in CSC. The relatively warm and humid meteorological conditions in the hinterland of the basin were more conducive to the increase in CSC, and climate change also affected the region more significantly. In contrast, in the relatively high altitude of western Sichuan, controlled human activities were the key to improving CSC. The results of the study contribute to the understanding of the basic theory of vegetation carbon cycle in areas with complex plateau-basin topography and fragile ecosystems, as well as to provide suggestions for ecological shelter construction and ecological restoration in the upper Yangtze River.}, }
@article {pmid37716280, year = {2023}, author = {Garzke, J and Forster, I and Graham, C and Costalago, D and Hunt, BPV}, title = {Future climate change-related decreases in food quality may affect juvenile Chinook salmon growth and survival.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {191}, number = {}, pages = {106171}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106171}, pmid = {37716280}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Salmon ; *Climate Change ; Docosahexaenoic Acids ; Fatty Acids ; Fishes ; Food Quality ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is projected to raise global temperatures by 3.3-5.7 °C by 2100, resulting in changes in species composition, abundance, and nutritional quality of organisms at the base of the marine food web. Predicted increases in prey availability and reductions in prey nutritional quality under climate warming in certain marine systems are expected to impact higher trophic levels, such as fish and humans. There is limited knowledge of the interplay between food quantity and quality under warming, specifically when food availability is high, but quality is low. Here, we conducted an experiment assessing the effects of food quality (fatty acid composition and ratios) on juvenile Chinook salmon's (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) body and nutritional condition, specifically focusing on RNA:DNA ratio, Fulton's K, growth, mortality and their fatty acid composition. Experimental diets represented three different climate change scenarios with 1) a present-day diet (Euphausia pacifica), 2) a control diet (commercial aquaculture diet), and 3) a predicted Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) worst-case scenario diet with low essential fatty acid concentrations (IPCC SSP5-8.5). We tested how growth rates, RNA:DNA ratio, Fulton's K index, fatty acid composition and mortality rates in juvenile Chinook salmon compared across diet treatments. Fatty acids were incorporated into the salmon muscle at varying rates but, on average, reflected dietary concentrations. High dietary concentrations of DHA, EPA and high DHA:EPA ratios, under the control and present-day diets, increased fish growth and condition. In contrast, low concentrations of DHA and EPA and low DHA:EPA ratios in the diets under climate change scenario were not compensated for by increased food quantity. This result highlights the importance of considering food quality when assessing fish response to changing ocean conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37716279, year = {2023}, author = {Valente, S and Moro, S and Di Lorenzo, M and Milisenda, G and Maiorano, L and Colloca, F}, title = {Mediterranean fish communities are struggling to adapt to global warming. Evidence from the western coast of Italy.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {191}, number = {}, pages = {106176}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106176}, pmid = {37716279}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/physiology ; Climate Change ; Italy ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has significant impacts on marine ecosystems, resulting in disruptions in biological interactions, shifts in community composition, and changes in the physiology of fish and other marine organisms. In this study conducted in the central Mediterranean Sea, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC) was employed as an indicator to investigate the climatological factors influencing the fish community. The MTC, which utilizes species-preferred temperatures, was calculated using bottom temperature (BT) data weighted against scientific catches. The estimated MTC increasing rates were 0.01 °C year[-1] for the entire community, 0.017 °C year[-1] for the shelf break, and 0.004 °C year[-1] for the continental slope assemblage. We found that MTC is increasing at a lower rate compared to BT, suggesting a progressive under-adaptation of the fish community that seems not fully able to keep up with the ongoing pace of warming. The study identified sea surface temperature and bottom temperature as key drivers of changes in fish community composition. Notably, the fish community composition exhibited drastic changes over the studied period, and we suggest that the MTC can be a useful index to monitor such changes within the context of the EU's climate change adaptation strategy.}, }
@article {pmid37715548, year = {2023}, author = {Parks, SA and Holsinger, LM and Abatzoglou, JT and Littlefield, CE and Zeller, KA}, title = {Response to concerns raised about the likelihood of protected areas serving as steppingstones for species responding to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {23}, pages = {e7-e8}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16940}, pmid = {37715548}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Probability ; }, }
@article {pmid37714989, year = {2023}, author = {Marshall, M}, title = {Libya floods: how climate change intensified the death and devastation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {621}, number = {7979}, pages = {452-453}, pmid = {37714989}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change/mortality/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Floods/mortality/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Libya/epidemiology ; Armed Conflicts ; }, }
@article {pmid37714984, year = {2023}, author = {Manyukwe, C}, title = {I train farmers to use plant science in the fight against climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-02914-w}, pmid = {37714984}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37713797, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, X and Mahmoud, SH and Wang, H and Gao, L and Langford, M and Zhang, W}, title = {Predicting stormwater nitrogen loads from a cold-region urban catchment in year 2050 under the impacts of climate change and urban densification.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {245}, number = {}, pages = {120576}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.120576}, pmid = {37713797}, issn = {1879-2448}, abstract = {Urban stormwater is a primary source of pollution for receiving water, but there is a shortage of studies on pollutant loads from urban catchments in cold regions. In this study, we coupled a build-up and wash-off model (in Mike Urban) with a climate change model to assess the impacts of climate change and urban densification on stormwater nitrogen loads (TN, TKN, NOx-N, and TAN) in an urban catchment in Canada. We calibrated and validated the Mike Urban model against observed event mean concentrations and nitrogen loads from 2010 to 2016. Results show that the nitrogen loads were mainly governed by rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, and antecedent dry days. Future precipitation data were downscaled using the Global Climate Models (GCMs), and three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.5, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) were used. Modeling results show that the TN, TKN, NOx-N, and TAN loads in 2050 will increase by 28.5 - 45.2% from May to September under RCP 2.5 compared to those from 2010 to 2016, by 34.6 - 49.9% under RCP 4.5, and by 39.4 - 53.5% under RCP 8.5. The increase of our projected TN load (from 1.33 to 2.93 kg·N/ha) is similar or slightly higher than the limited studies in other urban catchments. This study provides a reference for predicting stormwater nitrogen loads in urban catchments in cold regions.}, }
@article {pmid37713389, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, Y and Waldhoff, S and Wise, M and Edmonds, J and Patel, P}, title = {Agriculture, bioenergy, and water implications of constrained cereal trade and climate change impacts.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {e0291577}, pmid = {37713389}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Edible Grain ; *Climate Change ; Commerce ; Internationality ; Agriculture ; Water ; }, abstract = {International trade increases connections and dependencies between countries, weaving a network of global supply chains. Agricultural commodity trade has implications for crop producers, consumers, crop prices, water and land uses, and other human systems. Interconnections among these systems are not always easy to observe when external impacts penetrate across multiple sectors. To better understand the interactions of non-linear and globally coupled agricultural-bioenergy-water systems under the broader economy, we introduce systematic perturbations in two dimensions, one human (restrictions on agricultural trade) and the other physical (climate impacts on crop yields). We explore these independently and in combination to distinguish the consequences of individual perturbation and interactive effects in long-term projections. We show that most regions experience larger changes in cereal consumption due to cereal import dependency constraints than due to the impacts of climate change on agricultural yields. In the scenario where all regions ensure an import dependency ratio of zero, the global trade of cereals decreases ~50% in 2050 compared to the baseline, with smaller decreases in cereal production and consumption (4%). The changes in trade also impact water and bioenergy: global irrigation water consumption increases 3% and corn ethanol production decreases 7% in 2050. Climate change results in rising domestic prices and declining consumption of cereal crops in general, while the import dependency constraint exacerbates the situation in regions which import more cereals in the baseline. The individual and interactive effects of trade perturbations and climate change vary greatly across regions, which are also affected by the regional ability to increase agricultural production through intensification or extensification.}, }
@article {pmid37711498, year = {2023}, author = {Ahmed, AS and Bekele, A and Kasso, M and Atickem, A}, title = {Impact of climate change on the distribution and predicted habitat suitability of two fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus) in Ethiopia: Implications for conservation.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e10481}, pmid = {37711498}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Fruit bats serve as crucial bioindicators, seed dispersers, pollinators, and contributors to food security within ecosystems. However, their population and distribution were threatened by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Understanding the impacts of these pressures through mapping distribution and habitat suitability is crucial for identifying high-priority areas and implementing effective conservation and management plans. We predicted the distribution and extent of habitat suitability for Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus under climate change scenarios using average predictions from four different algorithms to produce an ensemble model. Seasonal precipitation, population index, land-use land cover, vegetation, and the mean temperature of the driest quarter majorly contributed to the predicted habitat suitability for both species. The current predicted sizes of suitable habitats for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus were varied, on average 60,271.4 and 85,176.1 km[2], respectively. The change in species range size for R. aegyptiacus showed gains in suitable areas of 24.4% and 22.8% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, for E. labiatus, suitable areas decreased by 0.95% and 2% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. The range size change of suitable areas between 2050 and 2070 for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus shows losses of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The predicted maps indicate that the midlands and highlands of southern and eastern Ethiopia harbor highly suitable areas for both species. In contrast, the areas in the northern and central highlands are fragmented. The current model findings show that climate change and anthropogenic pressures have notable impacts on the geographic ranges of two species. Moreover, the predicted suitable habitats for both species are found both within and outside of their historical ranges, which has important implications for conservation efforts. Our ensemble predictions are vital for identifying high-priority areas for fruit bat species conservation efforts and management to mitigate climate change and anthropogenic pressures.}, }
@article {pmid37710043, year = {2023}, author = {Lamers, KP and Nilsson, J&#xc5; and Nicolaus, M and Both, C}, title = {Adaptation to climate change through dispersal and inherited timing in an avian migrant.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {1869-1877}, pmid = {37710043}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {ALWOP.171//Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; *Climate Change ; *Songbirds/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Sweden ; Phenotype ; }, abstract = {Many organisms fail to adjust their phenology sufficiently to climate change. Studies have concentrated on adaptive responses within localities, but little is known about how latitudinal dispersal enhances evolutionary potential. Rapid adaptation is expected if dispersers from lower latitudes have improved synchrony to northern conditions, thereby gain fitness and introduce genotypes on which selection acts. Here we provide experimental evidence that dispersal in an avian migrant enables rapid evolutionary adaptation. We translocated Dutch female pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) and eggs to Sweden, where breeding phenology is ~15 days later. Translocated females bred earlier, and their fitness was 2.5 times higher than local Swedish flycatchers. We show that between-population variation in timing traits is highly heritable, and hence immigration of southern genotypes promotes the necessary evolutionary response. We conclude that studies on adaptation to large-scale environmental change should not just focus on plasticity and evolution based on standing genetic variation but should also include phenotype-habitat matching through dispersal as a viable route to adjust.}, }
@article {pmid37709854, year = {2023}, author = {Kolanowska, M}, title = {Future distribution of the epiphytic leafless orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii), its pollinators and phorophytes evaluated using niche modelling and three different climate change projections.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {15242}, pmid = {37709854}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Endangered Species ; Epiphyses ; Geography ; Trees ; }, abstract = {The identification of future refugia for endangered species from the effects of global warming is crucial for improving their conservation. Because climate-driven shifts in ranges and local extinctions can result in a spatial mismatch with their symbiotic organisms, however, it is important to incorporate in niche modelling the ecological partners of the species studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on the distribution of suitable niches for the ghost orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii) and its phorophytes and pollinators. Thus, its five species of host trees and three pollen vectors were included in the analysis. Climatic preferences of all the species studied were evaluated. The modelling was based on three different climate change projections and four Shared Socio-economic Pathway trajectories. All the species analysed are characterized by narrow temperature tolerances, which with global warming are likely to result in local extinctions and range shifts. D. lindenii is likely to be subjected to a significant loss of suitable niches, but within a reduced geographical range, both host trees and pollen vectors will be available in the future. Future conservation of this orchid should focus on areas that are likely be suitable for it and its ecological partners.}, }
@article {pmid37709213, year = {2023}, author = {Majeed, H and Iftikhar, T and Ahmad, K and Qureshi, K and Tabinda,  and Altaf, F and Iqbal, A and Ahmad, S and Khalid, A}, title = {Bulk industrial production of sustainable cellulosic printing fabric using agricultural waste to reduce the impact of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biological macromolecules}, volume = {253}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {126885}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2023.126885}, pmid = {37709213}, issn = {1879-0003}, mesh = {*Sodium Bicarbonate ; *Climate Change ; Alginates ; Agriculture ; Urea ; }, abstract = {In this research paper, a novel process was developed for reactive printing of cotton fabric, with the objective of producing a high-quality printed fabric that is sustainable, eco-friendly, and low-cost which will ultimately reduce the impact of climate change. The study incorporated substituted tamarind polysaccharide (STP) obtained from agricultural waste, trichloro-ethanoic acid (TCEA), and polyethylene glycol (PEG-400) in the reactive printing paste. Tamarind starch was extracted from the seeds having 72 % yield, and substitution was performed to use it as a thickener in the printing paste. The conventional printing system was formulated with sodium alginate, urea, and sodium bicarbonate at dose levels of 2 %, 15 %, and 2.5 %, respectively, while the modified recipe was formulated with STP and TCEA at 5 % and 3 % dose levels, respectively along with varying doses of PEG-400 (0 %, 1 %, and 2 %) in novel prints. Various factors such as shade comparison, penetration, staining on the white ground, washing, rubbing, light and perspiration fastness, sharpness of edges, and fabric hardness were evaluated for all the recipes. The study demonstrated that the optimal outcomes were obtained with a 2 % PEG-400 dose level. This study represents a significant contribution to sustainable textile production, as tamarind agriculture waste was used as a raw material, which is an environmentally friendly alternative of sodium alginate that reduces the wastewater load. Additionally, PEG-400 was utilized as a nitrogen-free solubilizing moisture management substitution of urea for printing, while TCEA dissociated at high temperature to make alkaline pH during curing of the printed fabric to replace sodium bicarbonate. This research is a novel contribution to the printing industry, as these three constituents have not been previously used together other than this research group, in the history of reactive printing.}, }
@article {pmid37708682, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, Z and Ma, C and Li, X and Deng, Z and Tian, Z}, title = {Aquatic environment impacts of floating photovoltaic and implications for climate change challenges.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {346}, number = {}, pages = {118851}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118851}, pmid = {37708682}, issn = {1095-8630}, abstract = {With the aggravation of global warming and the increasing demand for energy, the development of renewable energy is imminent. Floating photovoltaic (FPV) is a new form of renewable energy generation. However, the impact of FPV on the aquatic environment is still unclear. By long-term empirical monitoring and data analysis, this paper reveals the shading effect of large-scale FPV power station on aquatic environment for the first time. The results show that: (1) Compared with the non-photovoltaic (NP) zone, FPV only significantly reduces the concentration of dissolved oxygen in the photovoltaic (P) zone. (2) The concentration of chlorophyll a, nitrate nitrogen and total phosphorus increase, while pH and ammonia nitrogen decrease. FPV only causes an effect of the same order of magnitude as the initial concentration, and has no significant adverse effects on the nutritional status of the water body at a coverage ratio less than 50%. (3) FPV has a cooling effect on the water body during the daytime and a thermal insulation effect at night, with the most pronounced impact on peak water temperature (Tw). The heating and cooling process of Tw in P zone usually lags behind the NP zone by 1-3 h. The diurnal fluctuation and vertical difference of Tw as well as the stability of water body are reduced under the shading of FPV, alleviating the influence of climate change on Tw and water body stratification. (4) If 10% of the water area larger than 1 km[2] in China are used to develop FPV, more than 900 million tons of CO2 emissions can be reduced, and about 5 billion m[3] water can be saved, which is significant in the context of climate change. In general, this paper provides a reference for the future aquatic environmental impact assessment of FPV and the formulation of related policies.}, }
@article {pmid37708166, year = {2023}, author = {Gil-Tapetado, D and López-Collar, D and Gómez, JF and Mañani-Pérez, J and Cabrero-Sañudo, FJ and Muñoz, J}, title = {Climate change as a driver of insect invasions: Dispersal patterns of a dragonfly species colonizing a new region.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {e0291270}, pmid = {37708166}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Odonata ; Climate Change ; Insecta ; Europe ; Spain ; }, abstract = {The dragonfly Trithemis kirbyi Sélys, 1891 recently colonized Western Europe from North Africa. Since its first record in the Iberian Peninsula in 2007, the species has been spreading northward and has become naturally established in the central and eastern Iberian Peninsula, the Balearic Islands and southern France. Despite its worldwide distribution, its rapid colonization of the western Mediterranean area occurred only very recently. The aims of this study were to evaluate (1) whether the species' colonization of the western Mediterranean is related to climate change and rising temperatures, specifically the summer warming peaks that have occurred in the last decade, (2) which climatic variables have most influenced its distribution and dispersal, and (3) its potential future dispersal and colonization capacity towards the eastern Mediterranean. We found that the dispersal and recent establishment of T. kirbyi in southwestern Europe strongly depends on increasing temperatures, particularly summer temperature peaks, which has allowed this species to disperse farther and more effectively than during years with average summer temperatures. The most important variable in the suitability models is the minimum temperature of the coldest month, which, in recent decades, has become less of a limiting factor for ectotherms. According to the models, suitable areas for the species are currently found throughout the eastern Mediterranean parts of Europe, and it is likely that it can naturally colonize these areas as it did in the Iberian Peninsula. Trithemis kirbyi is a model of how climate change and observed rising temperatures have turned previously inhospitable regions into suitable areas for exotic species, which may successfully colonize them naturally if they can reach these promising lands on their own. However, this study serves as a warning that such species can also colonize these new regions with a little help from unsuspecting means, which are often responsible for the increasingly common presence of invasive, noxious taxa in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid37707832, year = {2023}, author = {Stafford, AM and Walton, AL and Gonzalez-Guarda, RM}, title = {Growing Up in an Era of Storms and Stress-Promoting Hope Among Adolescents in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA health forum}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {e233834}, doi = {10.1001/jamahealthforum.2023.3834}, pmid = {37707832}, issn = {2689-0186}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Hope ; }, }
@article {pmid37705266, year = {2023}, author = {Etzel, RA and Bhave, SY}, title = {The Health Effects of Climate Change on Children: Pediatricians Must Be Part of the Solution.}, journal = {Indian pediatrics}, volume = {60}, number = {9}, pages = {714-718}, pmid = {37705266}, issn = {0974-7559}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Asian People ; Capacity Building ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Pediatricians ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already impacting children's health in a variety of ways. Indian children are among the most severely affected; they are experiencing respiratory illnesses from air pollution, heat-related illnesses, malnutrition, vector- and water-borne diseases; and mental health problems such as post-traumatic stress disorder from weather disasters. There is a need to increase awareness and capacity building among paediatricians for understanding the impact of climate change on the health of children and educating parents about preventive measures. Detailed environmental history taking will help to identify risk factors. To address climate change issues, professional paediatric associations should increase their advocacy with government agencies. It is essential to ask policymakers to immediately reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing the burning of coal and other fossil fuels and moving to renewable energy sources such as solar and wind will reduce India's carbon emissions and decrease environmental illness among children. The pediatricians of India should declare that climate change is a child health emergency.}, }
@article {pmid37705262, year = {2023}, author = {Kinjawadekar, U}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Child Health - A Cause for Concern!.}, journal = {Indian pediatrics}, volume = {60}, number = {9}, pages = {699-700}, pmid = {37705262}, issn = {0974-7559}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid37704827, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, X and Qi, Y and Liu, F and Li, H and Sun, S}, title = {Enhancing daily streamflow simulation using the coupled SWAT-BiLSTM approach for climate change impact assessment in Hai-River Basin.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {15169}, pmid = {37704827}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Against the backdrop of accelerated global climate change and urbanization, the frequency and severity of flood disasters have been increasing. In recent years, influenced by climate change, the Hai-River Basin (HRB) has experienced multiple large-scale flood disasters. During the widespread extraordinary flood event from July 28th to August 1st, 2023, eight rivers witnessed their largest floods on record. These events caused significant damage and impact on economic and social development. The development of hydrological models with better performance can help researchers understand the impacts of climate change, provide risk information on different disaster events within watersheds, support decision-makers in formulating adaptive measures, urban planning, and improve flood defense mechanisms to address the ever-changing climate environment. This study examines the potential for enhancing streamflow simulation accuracy in the HRB located in Northeast China by combining the physically-based hydrological model with the data-driven model. Three hybrid models, SWAT-D-BiLSTM, SWAT-C-BiLSTM and SWAT-C-BiLSTM with SinoLC-1, were constructed in this study, in which SWAT was used as a transfer function to simulate the base flow and quick flow generation process based on weather data and spatial features, and BiLSTM was used to directly predict the streamflow according to the base flow and quick flow. In the SWAT-C-BiLSTM model, SWAT parameters with P values less than 0.4 in each hydrological station-controlled watershed were calibrated, while the SWAT-D-BiLSTM model did not undergo calibration. Additionally, this study utilizes both 30 m resolution land use and land cover (LULC) map and the first 1 m resolution LULC map SinoLC-1 as input data for the models to explore the impact on streamflow simulation performance. Among five models, the NSE of SWAT-C-BiLSTM with SinoLC-1 reached 0.93 and the R[2] reached 0.95 during the calibration period, and both of them stayed at 0.92 even in the validation period, while the NSE and R[2] of the other four models were all below 0.90 in the validation period. The potential impact of climate change on streamflow in the HRB was evaluated by using predicted data from five global climate models from CMIP6 as input for the best-performing SWAT-C-BiLSTM with SinoLC-1. The results indicate that climate change exacerbates the uneven distribution of streamflow in the HRB, particularly during the concentrated heavy rainfall months of July and August. It is projected that the monthly streamflow in these two months will increase by 34% and 49% respectively in the middle of this century. Furthermore, it is expected that the annual streamflow will increase by 5.6% to 9.1% during the mid-century and by 6.7% to 9.3% by the end of the century. Both average streamflow and peak streamflow are likely to significantly increase, raising concerns about more frequent urban flooding in the capital economic region within the HRB.}, }
@article {pmid37704789, year = {2023}, author = {Jaber, SM and Abu-Allaban, MM and Sengupta, R}, title = {Spatial and temporal patterns of indicators of climate change and variability in the Arab world in the past four decades.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {15145}, pmid = {37704789}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A comprehensive assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of the most common indicators of climate change and variability in the Arab world in the past four decades was carried out. Monthly maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation amount data for the period 1980-2018 were obtained from the CHELSA project with a resolution of 1 km[2], which is suitable for detecting local geographic variations in climatic patterns. This data was analyzed using a seasonal-Kendall metric, followed by Sen's slope analysis. The findings indicate that almost all areas of the Arab world are getting hotter. Maximum air temperatures increased by magnitudes varying from 0.027 to 0.714 °C/decade with a mean of 0.318 °C/decade while minimum air temperatures increased by magnitudes varying from 0.030 to 0.800 °C/decade with a mean of 0.356 °C/decade. Most of the Arab world did not exhibit clear increasing or decreasing precipitation trends. The remaining areas showed either decreasing or increasing precipitation trends. Decreasing trends varied from -0.001 to -1.825 kg m[-2]/decade with a mean of -0.163 kg m[-2]/decade, while increasing trends varied from 0.001 to 4.286 kg m[-2]/decade with a mean of 0.366 kg m[-2]/decade. We also analyzed country-wise data and identified areas of most vulnerability in the Arab world.}, }
@article {pmid37704718, year = {2023}, author = {Li, Y and Ding, F and Hao, M and Chen, S and Jiang, D and Fan, P and Qian, Y and Zhuo, J and Wu, J}, title = {The implications for potential marginal land resources of cassava across worldwide under climate change challenges.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {15177}, pmid = {37704718}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {42201497//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 42001238//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2023000117//Youth Innovation Promotion Association/ ; 2019YFC0507805//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {The demand for energy plants is foreseen to grow as worldwide energy and climate policies promote the use of bioenergy for climate change mitigation. To avoid competing with food production, it's critical to assess future changes in marginal land availability for energy plant development. Using a machine learning method, boosted regression tree, this study modeled potential marginal land resources suitable for cassava under current and different climate change scenarios, based on cassava occurrence records and environmental covariates. The findings revealed that, currently, over 80% of the 1357.24 Mha of available marginal land for cassava cultivation is distributed in Africa and South America. Under three climate change scenarios, by 2030, worldwide suitable marginal land resources were predicted to grow by 39.71Mha, 66.21 Mha, and 39.31Mha for the RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively; by 2050, the potential marginal land suitable for cassava will increase by 38.98Mha, 83.02 Mha, and 55.43Mha, respectively; by 2080, the global marginal land resources were estimated to rise by 40.82 Mha, 99.74 Mha, and 21.87 Mha from now, respectively. Our results highlight the impacts of climate change on potential marginal land resources of cassava across worldwide, which provide the basis for assessing bioenergy potential in the future.}, }
@article {pmid37703768, year = {2023}, author = {Pérez-López, AV and Lim, SD and Cushman, JC}, title = {Tissue succulence in plants: Carrying water for climate change.}, journal = {Journal of plant physiology}, volume = {289}, number = {}, pages = {154081}, doi = {10.1016/j.jplph.2023.154081}, pmid = {37703768}, issn = {1618-1328}, abstract = {Tissue succulence in plants involves the storage of water in one or more organs or tissues to assist in maintaining water potentials on daily or seasonal time scales. This drought-avoidance or drought-resistance strategy allows plants to occupy diverse environments including arid regions, regions with rocky soils, epiphytic habitats, and saline soils. Climate-resilient strategies are of increasing interest in the context of the global climate crisis, which is leading to hotter and drier conditions in many regions throughout the globe. Here, we describe a short history of succulent plants, the basic concepts of tissue succulence, the anatomical diversity of succulent morphologies and associated adaptive traits, the evolutionary, phylogenetic, and biogeographical diversity of succulent plants, extinction risks to succulents due to poaching from their natural environments, and the myriad uses and applications of economically important succulent species and the products derived from them. Lastly, we discuss current prospects for engineering tissue succulence to improve salinity and drought tolerance in crops.}, }
@article {pmid37702158, year = {2023}, author = {Perry, WB}, title = {The cold sting of climate change and its effect on the march of invasive fishes.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {103}, number = {3}, pages = {459}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.15536}, pmid = {37702158}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Fishes ; *Introduced Species ; }, }
@article {pmid37699903, year = {2023}, author = {Chartrand, SM and Jellinek, AM and Kukko, A and Galofre, AG and Osinski, GR and Hibbard, S}, title = {High Arctic channel incision modulated by climate change and the emergence of polygonal ground.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {5297}, pmid = {37699903}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {18FAWESB26//Gouvernement du Canada | Canadian Space Agency (Agence Spatiale Canadienne)/ ; }, abstract = {Stream networks in Arctic and high-elevation regions underlain by frozen ground (i.e., permafrost) are expanding and developing in response to accelerating global warming, and intensifying summertime climate variability. The underlying processes governing landscape dissection in these environments are varied, complex and challenging to unravel due to air-temperature-regulated feedbacks and shifts to new erosional regimes as climate change progresses. Here we use multiple sources of environmental information and physical models to reconstruct and understand a 60-year history of landscape-scale channelization and evolution of the Muskox Valley, Axel Heiberg Island. A time series of air photographs indicates that freeze-thaw-related polygon fields can form rapidly, over decadal time scales. Supporting numerical simulations show that the presence of polygons can control how surface runoff is routed through the landscape, exerting a basic control on channelization, which is sensitive to the timing, duration and magnitude of hydrograph events, as well as seasonal air temperature trends. These results collectively highlight that the occurrence and dynamics of polygon fields modulate channel network establishment in permafrost-rich settings undergoing changes related to a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid37699829, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, WB and Rao, LY}, title = {[Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in Agro-pastoral Ecotone].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {44}, number = {9}, pages = {5114-5124}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.202210002}, pmid = {37699829}, issn = {0250-3301}, abstract = {Land use and climate change are the most important factors driving the change in ecosystem services (ESs). It is critical to understand the mechanisms behind such changes for improving ESs. However, there is still a lack of accurate understanding of change and dominant influencing factors of ESs in the agro-pastoral ecotone. This study took Naiman Banner, a typical farming pastoral ecotone in China, as the case study area. Based on the InVEST model, the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ) and the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) were used to calculate water yield, soil retention, and windbreak and sand-fixing in Naiman Banner in 2005 and 2015. Finally, the impacts of land use and climate change on these three ecosystem services were analyzed by using contribution rate formula, Pearson correlation coefficient, and geodetector methods. The results indicate that:① from 2005 to 2015, water yield and soil retention in Naiman Banner showed an overall upward trend, increasing by 22.41% and 6.74%, respectively, and windbreak and sand-fixing decreased by 66.24%. ② The change in water yield and windbreak and sand-fixing was mainly affected by climate change, and the change in soil retention was mainly affected by land use change. ③ Actual evapotranspiration change and land use change were the main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of water yield, with the explanatory powers of 94.50% and 50.05%, respectively. The main factors influencing the spatial differentiation of windbreak and sand-fixing were actual evapotranspiration change and land desertification degree, with the explanatory power of 19.84% and 16.15%, respectively. ④ The correlation of ESs in Naiman Banner was weak, and only windbreak and sand-fixing and water yield showed a weak significant synergy. Based on the results, we recommend that managers increase the proportion of grassland in sandy areas, implement closed management in pastoral areas, and introduce drip irrigation and other water-saving technologies in farmland, and ecological protection should continue to be given priority in city.}, }
@article {pmid37698829, year = {2023}, author = {Junttila, V and Minunno, F and Peltoniemi, M and Forsius, M and Akujärvi, A and Ojanen, P and Mäkelä, A}, title = {Correction to: Quantification of forest carbon flux and stock uncertainties under climate change and their use in regionally explicit decision making: Case study in Finland.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {52}, number = {11}, pages = {1734-1736}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-023-01919-z}, pmid = {37698829}, issn = {1654-7209}, }
@article {pmid37697783, year = {2023}, author = {Muhammad, A and Noor, S}, title = {Climate Change, COVID-19, And Flood Disasters In Pakistan.}, journal = {JPMA. The Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association}, volume = {73}, number = {8}, pages = {1754}, doi = {10.47391/JPMA.9231}, pmid = {37697783}, issn = {0030-9982}, mesh = {Humans ; Floods ; Climate Change ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; *Disasters ; }, }
@article {pmid37697069, year = {2023}, author = {Blattner, CE and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Frölicher, TL and Ingold, K and Raible, CC and Wyttenbach, J}, title = {How science bolstered a key European climate-change case.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {621}, number = {7978}, pages = {255-257}, pmid = {37697069}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37696777, year = {2023}, author = {Sidun, NM and Gibbons, JL}, title = {Women, girls, and climate change: Human rights, vulnerabilities, and opportunities.}, journal = {International journal of psychology : Journal international de psychologie}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ijop.12942}, pmid = {37696777}, issn = {1464-066X}, abstract = {Our world faces potentially catastrophic climate change that can damage human health in multiple ways. The impact of climate change is uneven, disproportionately affecting the lives and livelihoods of women and girls. This conceptual article compiles evidence for a model that argues that climate change has more detrimental consequences for women than men because of women's precarity (unequal power) and corporal (physical) vulnerability. Climate change challenges the human rights of women and girls, triggering displacement, interrupted education, food and water scarcity, economic instability, mental and physical health challenges, reproductive injustice, gender-based violence, exploitation and human trafficking. Women are effective and essential change agents; their empowerment can directly contravene or mitigate climate change and also break the links between climate change and its negative consequences for women and girls. Gender-sensitive responses to the effects of climate change are imperative. Women's empowerment will further human rights and achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.}, }
@article {pmid37694407, year = {2023}, author = {Xia, ZY and Su, J and Yin, HW and Kong, FH}, title = {Temporal and spatial patterns of habitat of Nipponia nippon in China under the background of climate change.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {34}, number = {6}, pages = {1467-1473}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202306.008}, pmid = {37694407}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; Dogs ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Birds ; Cold Temperature ; Endangered Species ; }, abstract = {Crested ibis (Nipponia nippon) is one of the endangered species in the International Union for Conservation of Nature. It is of great significance to pay attention to the changes of its suitable habitat in the context of climate change. Based on the geographical distribution data of crested ibis, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable habitat of crested ibis under current scenario and future climate change. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was high, with an AUC value of 0.989. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and the mean annual rainfall were the dominant environmental factors affecting the habitat of crested ibis. Under current climate scenario, the area of moderately and highly suitable area of Chinese crested ibis was 10.65×10[4] km[2], mainly distributed in Shaanxi, Sichuan, Hubei, Henan, and Gansu. In the future, the suitable habitat area of crested ibis would increase significantly under climate change, mainly distributed in Anhui, Chongqing, Guizhou, Jiangsu, Hunan, Shandong, Shaanxi, Jiangxi, Taiwan, Yunnan, Liaoning, and Fujian. In the SSP126 scenario from 2041 to 2060, the suitable habitat area of crested ibis would reach the maximum, being 139.53×10[4] km[2] higher than that of the current climate scenario, accounting for 19.6% of the land area. This study could provide a basis for policy making on the conservation of crested ibis under global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37692130, year = {2023}, author = {Sheather, J and Littler, K and Singh, JA and Wright, K}, title = {Ethics, climate change and health - a landscape review.}, journal = {Wellcome open research}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {343}, pmid = {37692130}, issn = {2398-502X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is unequivocal, and many of its physical health impacts have been identified, although further research is required into the mental health and wellbeing effects of climate change. There is a lack of understanding of the importance of ethics in policy-responses to health and climate change which is also linked to the lack of specific action-guiding ethical resources for researchers and practitioners. There is a marked paucity of ethically-informed health input into economic policy-responses to climate change-an area of important future work. The interaction between health, climate change and ethics is technically and theoretically complex and work in this area is fragmentary, unfocussed, and underdeveloped. Research and reflection on climate and health is fragmented and plagued by disciplinary silos and exponentially increasing literature means that the field cannot be synthesised using conventional methods. Reviewing the literature in these fields is therefore methodologically challenging. Although many of the normative challenges in responding to climate change have been identified, available theoretical approaches are insufficiently robust, and this may be linked to the lack of action-guiding support for practitioners. There is a lack of ethical reflection on research into climate change responses. Low-HDI (Human Development Index) countries are under-represented in research and publication both in the health-impacts of climate change, and normative reflection on health and climate change policy. There is a noticeable lack of ethical commentary on a range of key topics in the environmental health literature including population, pollution, transport, energy, food, and water use. Serious work is required to synthesise the principles governing policy responses to health and climate change, particularly in relation to value conflicts between the human and non-human world and the challenges presented by questions of intergenerational justice.}, }
@article {pmid37690801, year = {2023}, author = {Liao, Q and Fielding, R and Lam, WWT and Yang, L and Tian, L and Lee, TC}, title = {Climate change beliefs, perceptions of climate change-related health risk, and responses to heat-related risks among Hong Kong adults: abridged secondary publication.}, journal = {Hong Kong medical journal = Xianggang yi xue za zhi}, volume = {29 Suppl 4}, number = {4}, pages = {16-17}, pmid = {37690801}, issn = {1024-2708}, mesh = {Humans ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; Hong Kong ; *Hot Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid37690252, year = {2023}, author = {Zhu, Q and Wang, F and Yi, Q and Zhang, X and Chen, S and Zheng, J and Li, J and Xu, T and Peng, D}, title = {Modeling soybean cultivation suitability in China and its future trends in climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {345}, number = {}, pages = {118934}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118934}, pmid = {37690252}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {China ; *Glycine max ; *Climate Change ; Soil ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {Soybean is an important source of oil and vegetable protein and plays a key role in agricultural production and economy. A suitability evaluation of soybean cultivation is important for identifying potential soybean planting areas. Based on the raster data of soybean harvest ratio (FSHA) and climate-soil-topography-socio-economy environmental factors, we used MaxEnt to simulate the soybean planting suitability and potential distribution in China and the future trends of soybean cultivation under climate change. Three shared socio-economic paths (SSPs) that set up in the future climate section were considered, including SSP126 (sustainable path), SSP245 (intermediate path), and SSP585 (fossil fuel dominated development path). The result shows that the suitability of soybean cultivation was primarily influenced by elevation, precipitation of warmest quarter, capacity of the clay fraction, slope, portion of primary industry, topsoil gravel content, mean diurnal temperature range and accumulated temperature ≥10 °C. High-suitability and moderate-suitability area are respectively 26.51 Mha and 41.93 Mha in China. High-suitability areas for soybean are mainly concentrated in the Northeast Plain, the North China Plain and the northern parts of the middle and lower Yangtze River plain. There were many provinces with high soybean planting potential but low development degrees, including Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Tianjin, Jilin, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Hubei and Shaanxi. From 2021 to 2060, the total area highly and moderately suitable for soybean cultivation is projected to increase first and then decrease under both SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios. However, it shows a continued upward trend under SSP585, the rising part accounting for more than 10% in the base of historical data. Specifically, under SSP585, the suitability grade in most parts of Northeast China (eastern Inner Mongolia, northern Heilongjiang and western Jilin and Liaoning) will have a general promotion, opposite to the result under SSP126. Moreover, parts of southwest China (Yunnan, Chongqing, northern Guizhou and eastern Sichuan) may be more suitable for soybean cultivation in both scenarios. This study provides a practical reference for current and future soybean planting layout and relative countermeasures.}, }
@article {pmid37690242, year = {2023}, author = {Gurriaran, L and Tanaka, K and Takahashi, K and Ciais, P}, title = {How climate change may shift power demand in Japan: Insights from data-driven analysis.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {345}, number = {}, pages = {118799}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118799}, pmid = {37690242}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Japan ; Global Warming ; Carbon/analysis ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on power demand in Japan and its related CO2 emissions is a matter of concern for the Japanese authorities and power companies as it may have consequences on the power grid, but is also of global importance as Japan is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we trained random forest models against daily power data in ten Japanese regions and for different types of power generation to project changes in future power production and its carbon intensity. We used climate variables, heat stress indices, and one variable for the level of human activities. We then used the models trained from the present-day period to estimate the future power demand, carbon intensity, and pertaining CO2 emissions over the period 2020-2100 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The impact of climate change on CO2 emissions via power generation shows seasonal and regional disparities. In cold regions, a decrease in power demand during winter under future warming leads to an overall decrease in power demand over the year. In contrast, the decrease in winter power demand in hot regions can be overcompensated by an increase in summer power demand due to more frequent hot days, resulting in an overall annual increase. From our regional models, power demand is projected to increase the most in most Japanese regions in May, June, September, and October rather than in the middle of summer, as found in previous studies. This increase could result in regular power outages during those months as the power grid could become particularly tense. Overall, we observed that power demand in regions with extreme climates is more sensitive to global warming than in temperate regions. The impact of climate change on power demand induces a net annual decrease in CO2 emissions in all regions except for Okinawa, in which power demand strongly increases during the summer, resulting in a net annual increase in CO2 emissions. However, climate change's impact on carbon intensity may reverse the trend in some regions (Shikoku, Tohoku). Additionally, we assessed the relative impacts of socioeconomic factors such as population, GDP, and environmental policies on CO2 emissions. When combined with these factors, we found that the climate change effect is more important than when considered individually and significantly impacts total CO2 emissions under SSP585. The contrasting results observed in the warm and cold regions of Japan can offer valuable insight into the potential future variations in energy demand and resulting CO2 emissions on a global scale.}, }
@article {pmid37689338, year = {2023}, author = {Sharma, BR and Kuttippurath, J and Patel, VK}, title = {A gradual increase of aerosol pollution in the Third Pole during the past four decades: Implication for regional climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {238}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {117105}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117105}, pmid = {37689338}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; Climate Change ; Dust/analysis ; Seasons ; Aerosols/analysis ; Carbon/analysis ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {We analyse the long-term (1980-2020) changes in aerosols over the Third Pole (TP) and assess the changes in radiative forcing (RF) using satellite, ground-based and reanalysis data. The annual mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) varies from 0.06 to 0.24, with the highest values of around 0.2 in the north and southwest TP, which are dominated by dust from Taklimakan and Thar deserts, respectively. However, Organic Carbon (OC), Black Carbon (BC) and sulphate aerosols have significant contributions to the total AOD in the south and east TP. High amounts of dust are observed in spring and summer, but BC in winter. Trajectory analysis reveals that the air mass originated from East and South Asia carries BC and OC, whereas the air from South Asia, Central Asia and Middle East brings dust to TP. Significant positive trends in AOD is found in TP, with high values of about 0.002/yr in the eastern and southern TP. There is a gradual increase in BC and OC concentrations during 1980-2020, but the change from 2000 is phenomenal. The RF at the top of the atmosphere varies from -10 to 2 W/m[2] in TP, and high positive RF of about 2 W/m[2] is estimated in Pamir, Karakoram and Nyainquentanglha mountains, where the massive glacier mass exists. The RF has increased in much of TP during recent decades (2001-2020) with respect to previous decades (1981-2000), which can be due to the rise in BC and dust during the latter period. Therefore, the positive trend in BC and its associated change in RF can amplify the regional warming, and thus, the melting of glaciers or ice in TP. This is a great concern as it is directly connected to the water security of many South Asian countries.}, }
@article {pmid37689334, year = {2023}, author = {Picetti, R and Juel, R and Milner, J and Bonell, A and Karakas, F and Dangour, AD and Yeung, S and Wilkinson, P and Hughes, R}, title = {Effects on child and adolescent health of climate change mitigation policies: A systematic review of modelling studies.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {238}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {117102}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117102}, pmid = {37689334}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Adolescent ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Adolescent Health ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Policy ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; }, abstract = {There is a growing body of modelling evidence that demonstrates the potential for immediate and substantial benefits to adult health from greenhouse gas mitigation actions, but the effects on the health of younger age groups is largely unknown. We conducted a systematic review to identify the available published evidence of the modelled effects on child and adolescent health (≤18 years of age) of greenhouse gas mitigation. We searched six databases of peer-reviewed studies published between January 1, 1990 and July 27, 2022, screened 27,282 original papers and included 23 eligible papers. All included studies were set in high- and middle-income countries; and all studies modelled the effects of interventions that could mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality. Most of the available evidence suggests positive benefits for child and adolescent respiratory health from greenhouse gas mitigation actions that simultaneously reduce air pollution (specifically PM2.5 and nitrogen dioxide). We found scant evidence on child and adolescent health from regions more vulnerable to climate change, or on mitigation interventions that could affect exposures other than air pollution.}, }
@article {pmid37689250, year = {2023}, author = {Çelebi Sözener, Z and Treffeisen, ER and Özdel Öztürk, B and Schneider, LC}, title = {Global warming and implications for epithelial barrier disruption and respiratory and dermatologic allergic diseases.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {152}, number = {5}, pages = {1033-1046}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2023.09.001}, pmid = {37689250}, issn = {1097-6825}, support = {T32 AI007512/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Dermatitis, Atopic ; Global Warming ; Respiratory Rate ; *Rhinitis, Allergic ; Inflammation ; }, abstract = {Global warming has direct and indirect effects, as well as short- and long-term impacts on the respiratory and skin barriers. Extreme temperature directly affects the airway epithelial barrier by disrupting the structural proteins and by triggering airway inflammation and hyperreactivity. It enhances tidal volume and respiratory rate by affecting the thermoregulatory system, causing specific airway resistance and reflex bronchoconstriction via activation of bronchopulmonary vagal C fibers and upregulation of transient receptor potential vanilloid (TRPV) 1 and TRPV4. Heat shock proteins are activated under heat stress and contribute to both epithelial barrier dysfunction and airway inflammation. Accordingly, the frequency and severity of allergic rhinitis and asthma have been increasing. Heat activates TRPV3 in keratinocytes, causing the secretion of inflammatory mediators and eventually pruritus. Exposure to air pollutants alters the expression of genes that control skin barrier integrity and triggers an immune response, increasing the incidence and prevalence of atopic dermatitis. There is evidence that extreme temperature, heavy rains and floods, air pollution, and wildfires increase atopic dermatitis flares. In this narrative review, focused on the last 3 years of literature, we explore the effects of global warming on respiratory and skin barrier and their clinical consequences.}, }
@article {pmid37689208, year = {2023}, author = {Thompson, C and Bacha, L and Paz, PHC and de Assis Passos Oliveira, M and Oliveira, BCV and Omachi, C and Chueke, C and de Lima Hilário, M and Lima, M and Leomil, L and Felix-Cordeiro, T and da Cruz, TLC and Otsuki, K and Vidal, L and Thompson, M and Ribeiro E Silva, R and Cabezas, CMV and Veríssimo, BM and Zaganelli, JL and Botelho, ACN and Teixeira, L and Cosenza, C and Costa, PM and Landuci, F and Tschoeke, DA and Silva, TA and Attias, M and de Souza, W and de Rezende, CE and Thompson, F}, title = {Collapse of scallop Nodipecten nodosus production in the tropical Southeast Brazil as a possible consequence of global warming and water pollution.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {904}, number = {}, pages = {166873}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166873}, pmid = {37689208}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Chlorophyll A ; Brazil ; *Global Warming ; *Pectinidae ; Water Pollution ; }, abstract = {Mollusc rearing is a relevant global socioeconomic activity. However, this activity has faced severe problems in the last years in southeast Brazil. The mariculture scallop production dropped from 51,2 tons in 2016 to 10,2 tons in 2022 in the Baia da Ilha Grande (BIG; Rio de Janeiro). However, the possible causes of this collapse are unknown. This study aimed to analyze decadal trends of water quality in Nodipecten nodosus spat and adult production in BIG. We also performed physical-chemical and biological water quality analyses of three scallop farms and two nearby locations at BIG in 2022 to evaluate possible environmental stressors and risks. Scallop spat production dropped drastically in the last five years (2018-2022: mean ± stdev: 0.47 ± 0.45 million). Spat production was higher in colder waters and during peaks of Chlorophyll a in the last 13 years. Reduction of Chlorophyll a coincided with decreasing spat production in the last five years. Warmer periods (>27 °C) of the year may hamper scallop development. Counts of potentially pathogenic bacteria (Vibrios) and Escherichia coli were significantly higher in warmer periods which may further reduce scallop productivity. Shotgun metagenomics of seawater samples from the five studied corroborated these culture-based counts. Vibrios and fecal indicator bacteria metagenomic sequences were abundant across the entire study area throughout 2022. The results of this study suggest the collapse of scallop mariculture is the result of a synergistic negative effect of global warming and poor seawater quality.}, }
@article {pmid37689189, year = {2023}, author = {Zhao, S and Liu, M and Tao, M and Zhou, W and Lu, X and Xiong, Y and Li, F and Wang, Q}, title = {The role of satellite remote sensing in mitigating and adapting to global climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {904}, number = {}, pages = {166820}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166820}, pmid = {37689189}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change has critical adverse impacts on human society and poses severe challenges to global sustainable development. Information on essential climate variables (ECVs) that reflects the substantial changes that have occurred on Earth is critical for assessing the influence of climate change. Satellite remote sensing (SRS) technology has led to a new era of observations and provides multiscale information on ECVs that is independent of in situ measurements and model simulations. This enhances our understanding of climate change from space and supports policy-making in combating climate change. However, it remains challenging to remotely retrieve ECVs due to the complexity of the climate system. We provide an update on the studies on the role of SRS in climate change research, specifically in monitoring and quantifying ECVs in the atmosphere (greenhouse gases, clouds and aerosols), ocean (sea surface temperature, sea ice melt and sea level rise, ocean currents and mesoscale eddies, phytoplankton and ocean productivity), and terrestrial ecosystems (land use and land cover change and carbon flux, water resource and hydrological hazards, solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and terrestrial gross primary production). The benefits and challenges of applying SRS in climate change studies are also examined and discussed. This work will help us apply SRS and recommend future SRS studies to mitigate and adapt to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37689185, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, Y and Lin, Z and Wang, Z and Chen, X and Han, P and Wang, B and Wang, Z and Wen, Z and Shi, H and Zhang, Z and Zhang, W}, title = {Discriminating the impacts of vegetation greening and climate change on the changes in evapotranspiration and transpiration fraction over the Yellow River Basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {904}, number = {}, pages = {166926}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166926}, pmid = {37689185}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital parameter in terrestrial water-energy cycles. The transpiration fraction (TF) is defined as the ratio of transpiration (T) to evapotranspiration (ET), representing the contribution rate of vegetation transpiration to ecosystem ET. Quantifying the relative contributions of vegetation and climate change on the ET and TF dynamic is of great significance to better understand the water budget between the land and atmosphere. Here, we chose Yellow River Basin (YRB) as the study area and analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of ET, T, and TF from 1982 to 2015 using the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model. Meanwhile, the relative contributions of vegetation and climate change to ET, T and TF change were quantified. Model evaluation showed that the PT-JPL model performs well in the simulation of ET and T. During 1982-2015, the average annual ET, T, and TF increased at a rate of 3.20 mm/a, 0.77 mm/a and 0.003/a over the YRB during 1982-2015, respectively. The regions with significant increases in ET, T and TF almost covered the whole study area except for the upper reaches of the YRB. Vegetation greening was the main factor for the increase of ET and TF in the YRB and enhanced ET and TF at a rate of 0.72 mm/a and 0.57/a, respectively, which mainly observed in the entire Loess Plateau region (over 50 % of the study area). Precipitation (PRE) was also the dominated factor contributing to the increase in ET and TF, and temperature (TEM) showed a positive correlation with the changes in ET and TF in the most areas of YRB, which jointly dominated ET changes in the upper reaches of the YRB and TF changes in the southern part of the basin. Except for the total effects, leaf area index (LAI) also indirectly promoted ET changes by affecting PRE, TEM and relative humidity (RH). While wind speed (WS) and radiation (RAD) had a relatively weak regulatory effect on the changes in ET and TF. These findings were helpful for regional water resources management and formulating water resources-sustainable vegetation restoration strategies for local government.}, }
@article {pmid37689112, year = {2023}, author = {Seastedt, H and Nadeau, K}, title = {Factors by which global warming worsens allergic disease.}, journal = {Annals of allergy, asthma &amp; immunology : official publication of the American College of Allergy, Asthma, &amp; Immunology}, volume = {131}, number = {6}, pages = {694-702}, doi = {10.1016/j.anai.2023.08.610}, pmid = {37689112}, issn = {1534-4436}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Gases ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/etiology ; Climate Change ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; Fossil Fuels ; }, abstract = {Increased use of fossil fuels has led to global warming with concomitant increases in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events such as wildfires and sand and dust storms. These changes have led to increases in air pollutants such as particulate matter and greenhouse gases. Global warming is also associated with increases in pollen season length and pollen concentration. Particulate matter, greenhouse gases, and pollen synergistically increase the incidence and severity of allergic diseases. Other indirect factors such as droughts, flooding, thunderstorms, heat waves, water pollution, human migration, deforestation, loss of green space, and decreasing biodiversity (including microbial diversity) also affect the incidence and severity of allergic disease. Global warming and extreme weather events are expected to increase in the coming decades, and further increases in allergic diseases are expected, exacerbating the already high health care burden associated with these diseases. There is an urgent need to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change to improve human health. Human health and planetary health are connected and the concept of One Health, which is an integrated, unifying approach to balance and optimize the health of people, animals, and the environment needs to be emphasized. Clinicians are trusted members of the community, and they need to take a strong leadership role in educating patients on climate change and its adverse effects on human health. They also need to advocate for policy changes that decrease the use of fossil fuels and increase biodiversity and green space to enable a healthier and more sustainable future.}, }
@article {pmid37688677, year = {2023}, author = {Shaheen, N and Ahmad, S and Alghamdi, SS and Rehman, HM and Javed, MA and Tabassum, J and Shao, G}, title = {CRISPR-Cas System, a Possible "Savior" of Rice Threatened by Climate Change: An Updated Review.}, journal = {Rice (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {39}, pmid = {37688677}, issn = {1939-8425}, support = {2021PE0AC05//Intelligent technology and platform development for rice breeding/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change has significantly affected agriculture production, particularly the rice crop that is consumed by almost half of the world's population and contributes significantly to global food security. Rice is vulnerable to several abiotic and biotic stresses such as drought, heat, salinity, heavy metals, rice blast, and bacterial blight that cause huge yield losses in rice, thus threatening food security worldwide. In this regard, several plant breeding and biotechnological techniques have been used to raise such rice varieties that could tackle climate changes. Nowadays, gene editing (GE) technology has revolutionized crop improvement. Among GE technology, CRISPR/Cas (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats/CRISPR-associated protein) system has emerged as one of the most convenient, robust, cost-effective, and less labor-intensive system due to which it has got more popularity among plant researchers, especially rice breeders and geneticists. Since 2013 (the year of first application of CRISPR/Cas-based GE system in rice), several trait-specific climate-resilient rice lines have been developed using CRISPR/Cas-based GE tools. Earlier, several reports have been published confirming the successful application of GE tools for rice improvement. However, this review particularly aims to provide an updated and well-synthesized brief discussion based on the recent studies (from 2020 to present) on the applications of GE tools, particularly CRISPR-based systems for developing CRISPR rice to tackle the current alarming situation of climate change, worldwide. Moreover, potential limitations and technical bottlenecks in the development of CRISPR rice, and prospects are also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid37687360, year = {2023}, author = {Manitašević Jovanović, S and Hočevar, K and Vuleta, A and Tucić, B}, title = {Predicting the Responses of Functional Leaf Traits to Global Warming: An In Situ Temperature Manipulation Design Using Iris pumila L.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {37687360}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {451-03-47/2023-01/ 200007//Ministry of Science, Technological Development and Innovation of the Republic of Serbia/ ; }, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity is widely acknowledged as one of the most common solutions for coping with novel environmental conditions following climate change. However, it is less known whether the current amounts of trait plasticity, which is sufficient for matching with the contemporary climate, will be adequate when global temperatures exceed historical levels. We addressed this issue by exploring the responses of functional and structural leaf traits in Iris pumila clonal individuals to experimentally increased temperatures (~1.5 °C) using an open top chamber (OTC) design. We determined the phenotypic values of the specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, specific leaf water content, and leaf thickness in the leaves sampled from the same clone inside and outside of the OTC deployed on it, over seasons and years within two natural populations. We analyzed the data using a repeated multivariate analysis of variance, which primarily focusses on the profiles (reaction norms (RNs)) of a variable gathered from the same individual at several different time points. We found that the mean RNs of all analyzed traits were parallel regardless of experienced temperatures, but differed in the level and the shape. The populations RNs were similar as well. As the amount of plasticity in the analyzed leaf trait was adequate for coping with elevated temperatures inside the OTCs, we predict that it will be also sufficient for responding to increased temperatures if they exceed the 1.5 °C target.}, }
@article {pmid37686827, year = {2023}, author = {Willits-Smith, A and Odinga, H and O'Malley, K and Rose, D}, title = {Demographic and Socioeconomic Correlates of Disproportionate Beef Consumption among US Adults in an Age of Global Warming.}, journal = {Nutrients}, volume = {15}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {37686827}, issn = {2072-6643}, support = {(N/A - grant did not have a number)//Center for Biological Diversity/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Male ; Humans ; Cattle ; Aged ; *Global Warming ; Nutrition Surveys ; Educational Status ; *Ethnicity ; Meals ; }, abstract = {Concern for the environment when making dietary choices has grown as the contribution of the food sector to global greenhouse gas emissions becomes more widely known. Understanding the correlates of beef eating could assist in the targeting of campaigns to reduce the consumption of high-impact foods. The objective of this study was to identify the demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral correlates of disproportionate beef consumption in the United States. We analyzed 24-h dietary recall data from adults (n = 10,248) in the 2015-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Disproportionate beef consumption was defined as an intake greater than four ounce-equivalents per 2200 kcal. Associations of this indicator variable with gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, family income, diet knowledge, and away-from-home meals were assessed using logistic regression, incorporating survey design and weighting. Disproportionate beef diets were consumed by 12% of individuals, but accounted for half of all beef consumed. Males were more likely than females (p < 0.001) to consume these diets. This relationship was seen in all bivariate and multivariable models. Older adults, college graduates, and those who looked up the MyPlate educational campaign online were less likely (p < 0.01) to consume a disproportionate beef diet. While almost one-third of reported consumption came from cuts of beef (e.g., steak or brisket), six of the top ten beef sources were mixed dishes: burgers, meat mixed dishes, burritos and tacos, frankfurters, soups, and pasta. Efforts to address climate change through diet modification could benefit from targeting campaigns to the highest consumers of beef, as their consumption accounts for half of all beef consumed.}, }
@article {pmid37684999, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, Z and Kang, Y and Wang, Y and Tan, Y and Yao, B and An, K and Su, J}, title = {Himalayan Marmot (Marmota himalayana) Redistribution to High Latitudes under Climate Change.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {37684999}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {2022CYZC47//the Industrial Support Program Project of Gansu Provincial Education Department/ ; LCJ2021020//Science and Technology Support Project of Forestry and Grassland Bureau of Gansu Province/ ; }, abstract = {Climate warming and human activities impact the expansion and contraction of species distribution. The Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana) is a unique mammal and an ecosystem engineer in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). This pest aggravates grassland degradation and is a carrier and transmitter of plagues. Therefore, exploring the future distribution of Himalayan marmots based on climate change and human activities is crucial for ecosystem management, biodiversity conservation, and public health safety. Here, a maximum entropy model was explored to forecast changes in the distribution and centroid migration of the Himalayan marmot in the 2050s and 2070s. The results implied that the human footprint index (72.80%) and altitude (16.40%) were the crucial environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of Himalayan marmots, with moderately covered grassland being the preferred habitat of the Himalayan marmot. Over the next 30-50 years, the area of suitable habitat for the Himalayan marmot will increase slightly and the distribution center will shift towards higher latitudes in the northeastern part of the plateau. These results demonstrate the influence of climate change on Himalayan marmots and provide a theoretical reference for ecological management and plague monitoring.}, }
@article {pmid37683273, year = {2023}, author = {Wernberg, T and S Thomsen, M and K Baum, J and J Bishop, M and F Bruno, J and A Coleman, M and Filbee-Dexter, K and Gagnon, K and He, Q and Murdiyarso, D and Rogers, K and R Silliman, B and A Smale, D and Starko, S and A Vanderklift, M}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Foundation Species.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-042023-093037}, pmid = {37683273}, issn = {1941-0611}, abstract = {Marine foundation species are the biotic basis for many of the world's coastal ecosystems, providing structural habitat, food, and protection for myriad plants and animals as well as many ecosystem services. However, climate change poses a significant threat to foundation species and the ecosystems they support. We review the impacts of climate change on common marine foundation species, including corals, kelps, corals, seagrasses, salt marsh plants, mangroves, and bivalves. It is evident that marine foundation species have already been severely impacted by several climate change drivers, often through interactive effects with other human stressors, such as pollution, overfishing, and coastal development. Despite considerable variation in geographical, environmental, and ecological contexts, direct and indirect effects of gradual warming and subsequent heatwaves have emerged as the most pervasive drivers of observed impact and potent threat across all marine foundation species, but effects from sea level rise, ocean acidification, and increased storminess are expected to increase. Documented impacts include changes in the genetic structures, physiology, abundance, and distribution of the foundation species themselves and changes to their interactions with other species, with flow-on effects to associated communities, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning. We discuss strategies to support marine foundation species into the Anthropocene, in order to increase their resilience and ensure the persistence of the ecosystem services they provide. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science, Volume 16 is January 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.}, }
@article {pmid37682995, year = {2023}, author = {Powis, CM and Byrne, D and Zobel, Z and Gassert, KN and Lute, AC and Schwalm, CR}, title = {Observational and model evidence together support wide-spread exposure to noncompensable heat under continued global warming.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {36}, pages = {eadg9297}, pmid = {37682995}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {As our planet warms, a critical research question is when and where temperatures will exceed the limits of what the human body can tolerate. Past modeling efforts have investigated the 35°C wet-bulb threshold, proposed as a theoretical upper limit to survivability taking into account physiological and behavioral adaptation. Here, we conduct an extreme value theory analysis of weather station observations and climate model projections to investigate the emergence of an empirically supported heat compensability limit. We show that the hottest parts of the world already experience these heat extremes on a limited basis and that under moderate continued warming parts of every continent, except Antarctica, will see a rapid increase in their extent and frequency. To conclude, we discuss the consequences of the emergence of this noncompensable heat and the need for incorporating different critical thermal limits into heat adaptation planning.}, }
@article {pmid37682393, year = {2023}, author = {Anjaneyulu, R and Swain, R and Behera, MD}, title = {Future projections of worst floods and dam break analysis in Mahanadi River Basin under CMIP6 climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {10}, pages = {1173}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-023-11797-3}, pmid = {37682393}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Floods ; Environmental Monitoring ; Calibration ; Hydrology ; }, abstract = {This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the hydrological effects and flood risks of the Hirakud Reservoir, considering different CMIP6 climate change scenarios. Using the HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models, the study evaluates future flow patterns and the potential repercussions of dam breaches. The following summary of the work: firstly, the HEC-HMS model is calibrated and validated using daily stage-discharge observations from the Basantpur station. With coefficient of determination (R[2]) values of 0.764 and 0.858 for calibration and validation, respectively, the model demonstrates satisfactory performance. Secondly, The HEC-HMS model predicts future flow for the Hirakud Reservoir under three climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and for three future periods (near future, mid future and far future). Thirdly, by analyzing time-series hydrographs, the study identifies peak flooding events. In addition, the HEC-RAS model is used to assess the effects of dam breaches. Downstream of the Hirakud Dam, the analysis highlights potential inundation areas and depth variations. The study determines the following inundation areas for the worst flood scenarios: 3651.52 km[2], 2931.46 km[2] and 4207.6 km[2] for the near-future, mid-future and far-future periods, respectively. In addition, the utmost flood depths for these scenarios are determined to be 31 m, 29 m and 39 m for the respective future periods. The study area identifies 105 vulnerable villages and several towns. This study emphasizes the importance of contemplating climate change scenarios and implementing proactive measures to mitigate the peak flooding events in the Hirakud reservoir region.}, }
@article {pmid37682121, year = {2023}, author = {Amasawa, E and Yamanishi, T and Nakatani, J and Hirao, M and Sato, S}, title = {Correction to "Climate Change Implications of Bio-Based and Marine-Biodegradable Plastic: Evidence from Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyhexanoate)".}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {57}, number = {37}, pages = {14090}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.3c06244}, pmid = {37682121}, issn = {1520-5851}, }
@article {pmid37682017, year = {2023}, author = {San-Emeterio, LM and Zavala, LM and Jiménez-Morillo, NT and Pérez-Ramos, IM and González-Pérez, JA}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Soil Organic Matter C and H Isotope Composition in a Mediterranean Savannah (Dehesa): An Assessment Using Py-CSIA.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {57}, number = {37}, pages = {13851-13862}, pmid = {37682017}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Pyrolysis ; Alkanes ; Isotopes ; Soil ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Dehesas are Mediterranean agro-sylvo-pastoral systems sensitive to climate change. Extreme climate conditions forecasted for Mediterranean areas may change soil C turnover, which is of relevance for soil biogeochemistry modeling. The effect of climate change on soil organic matter (SOM) is investigated in a field experiment mimicking environmental conditions of global change scenarios (soil temperature increase, +2-3 °C, W; rainfall exclusion, 30%, D; a combination of both, W+D). Pyrolysis-compound-specific isotope analysis (Py-CSIA) is used for C and H isotope characterization of SOM compounds and to forecast trends exerted by the induced climate shift. After 2.5 years, significant δ[13]C and δ[2]H isotopic enrichments were detected. Observed short- and mid-chain n-alkane δ[13]C shifts point to an increased microbial SOM reworking in the W treatment; a [2]H enrichment of up to 40‰ of lignin methoxyphenols was found when combining W+D treatments under the tree canopy, probably related to H fractionation due to increased soil water evapotranspiration. Our findings indicate that the effect of the tree canopy drives SOM dynamics in dehesas and that, in the short term, foreseen climate change scenarios will exert changes in the SOM dynamics comprising the biogeochemical C and H cycles.}, }
@article {pmid37681391, year = {2023}, author = {Xing, YK and Kang, B and Lu, ZC and Gao, XG and Wang, Z and Tian, JS}, title = {Suitable habitat of Lepidochelys olivacea and the changes under climate change.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {34}, number = {8}, pages = {2267-2273}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202308.030}, pmid = {37681391}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Salinity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {As a vulnerable species identified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Lepidochelys olivacea has attracted extensive attention in recent years. To examine its current distribution and that under future climate change scenarios, we compiled the occurrence data of L. olivacea. With eight predictor variables, including depth, offshore distance, mean primary productivity, minimum primary productivity, mean sea surface temperature, minimum sea surface temperature, mean sea surface salinity, and minimum sea surface salinity, we predicted its distribution in an ensemble species distribution model. The accuracy of the model was evaluated with the parameters of areas under curves (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS). The results showed that the AUC and TSS values were 0.96 and 0.81, respectively, indicating a good predictive performance of the ensemble model. Sea surface temperature and salinity were the two most important variables determining the distribution of L. olivacea, with the suitable temperature ranging from 23 to 29 ℃ and salinity below 34. The current distribution range of L. olivacea was between 30° N-25° S. Under future climate scenarios, its distribution range would decrease, especially under the RCP85 scenario in the 2100s (with a 28% reduction in the suitable survival range). The results of model validation showed that it had high accuracy and could make accurate predictions of the distribution. This study would provide references for the development of more rational conservation measures and management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid37680445, year = {2022}, author = {Duvall, MS and Jarvis, BM and Wan, Y}, title = {Impacts of climate change on estuarine stratification and implications for hypoxia within a shallow subtropical system.}, journal = {Estuarine, coastal and shelf science}, volume = {279}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, pmid = {37680445}, issn = {0272-7714}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Vertical density stratification often plays an important role in the formation and expansion of coastal hypoxic zones through its effect on near-bed circulation and vertical oxygen flux. However, the impact of future climate change on estuarine circulation is widely unknown. Here, we developed and calibrated a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for Pensacola Bay, a shallow subtropical estuary in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Model simulations based on years 2013-2017 were applied to examine changes in salinity, temperature, and density under future climate scenarios, including increased radiative forcing (IR) and temperature (T), increased freshwater discharge (D), sea level rise (SLR), and wind intensification (W). Simulations showed that the impacts of climate change on modeled state variables varied over time with external forcing conditions. The model demonstrated the potential for sea level rise and increased freshwater discharge to episodically increase vertical density gradients in the Bay. However, increased wind forcing destabilized vertical gradients, at times reducing the spatial extent and duration of stable stratification. For time periods with low freshwater discharge, moderate increases in wind speed (10%) can destabilize density gradients strengthened by increased discharge (10%) and sea level rise (0.48 m). In contrast, destruction of strong density gradients that form near the mid-Bay channel following flood events requires stronger wind forcing. These results highlight the importance of considering natural variability in freshwater and wind forcing, as well as local phenomena that are generally unresolved by global climate models.}, }
@article {pmid37679105, year = {2023}, author = {Yang, Y and Li, Z and Xia, C}, title = {Forced waves and their asymptotic behaviors in a Lotka-Volterra competition model with spatio-temporal nonlocal effect under climate change.}, journal = {Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {13638-13659}, doi = {10.3934/mbe.2023608}, pmid = {37679105}, issn = {1551-0018}, abstract = {In this paper, we propose a modified Lotka-Volterra competition model under climate change, which incorporates both spatial and temporal nonlocal effect. First, the theoretical analyses for forced waves of the model are performed, and the existence of the forced waves is proved by using the cross-iteration scheme combining with appropriate upper and lower solutions. Second, the asymptotic behaviors of the forced waves are derived by using the linearization and limiting method, and we find that the asymptotic behaviors of forced waves are mainly determined by the leading equations. In addition, some typical numerical examples are provided to illustrate the analytical results. By choosing three kinds of different kernel functions, it is found that the forced waves can be both monotonic and non-monotonic.}, }
@article {pmid37678894, year = {2023}, author = {Kelly-Weeder, S}, title = {Preparing Nurse Practitioners to Address Planetary Health and Climate Change.}, journal = {Nurse educator}, volume = {48}, number = {6}, pages = {342}, doi = {10.1097/NNE.0000000000001518}, pmid = {37678894}, issn = {1538-9855}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Nursing Education Research ; Curriculum ; *Nurse Practitioners ; }, }
@article {pmid37678533, year = {2023}, author = {Garrido-Perez, JM and García-Herrera, R and Barriopedro, D and Ordóñez, C}, title = {Shifting summer holidays in Spain as an adaptation measure to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {904}, number = {}, pages = {166879}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166879}, pmid = {37678533}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This paper assesses whether moving summer holidays to the warmest period of the year in Spain could be a useful climate change adaptation strategy. While the most popular period for Spanish summer holidays has traditionally been August, we illustrate that the second half of July is the hottest period of the year and when the negative effects of high temperatures are most pronounced. If the holiday period in the second fortnight of August was moved to the second fortnight of July, some of the associated impacts would be mitigated due to the reduced anthropogenic activity during non-working days. In particular, we find a significant reduction in the annual peak of labour productivity loss (~25 %) and, to a lesser extent, of electricity demand and near-surface ozone concentrations (~3-4 %). Finally, we also show that global warming could lead to enhanced differences between both fortnights (even with no change in the seasonal cycle of temperature) because of the non-linear relationships between temperature and its impacts. Therefore, the positive effect of shifting holidays would be even larger in the coming future.}, }
@article {pmid37678506, year = {2023}, author = {Azmi, MA and Mokhtar, K and Osnin, NA and Razali Chan, S and Albasher, G and Ali, A and Nawaz, A and Oloruntobi, O and Chuah, LF}, title = {Enhancing coastal ecosystem resilience: Investigating the interplay between safety criteria and ferry employee's perceptions to address climate change impacts.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {238}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {117074}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117074}, pmid = {37678506}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Human Activities ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems play an important part in mitigating the effects of climate change. Coastal ecosystems are becoming more susceptible to climate change impacts due to human activities and maritime accidents. The global shipping industry, especially in Southeast Asia, has witnessed numerous accidents, particularly involving passenger ferries, resulting in injuries and fatalities in recent years. In order to mitigate the impact of climate change on coastal ecosystems, this study aimed to evaluate the relationship between employees' perceptions of safety criteria and their own safety behaviour on Langkawi Island, Malaysia. A straightforward random sampling technique was employed to collect data from 112 ferry employees aboard Malaysian-registered passenger boats by administering questionnaires. The findings shed light on the strong connection between providing safety instructions for passengers and safety behaviour among ferry workers. Safety instructions should contain climate-related information to successfully address the effects of climate change. The instructions might include guidance on responding to extreme weather events and understanding the potential consequences of sea-level rise on coastal communities. The ferry company staff should also expand their safe behaviour concept to include training and preparation for climate-related incidents. The need to recognise the interconnectedness between climate change, ferry safety and the protection of coastal ecosystems is emphasised in this study. The findings can be utilised by policymakers, regulatory agencies and ferry operators to design holistic policies that improve safety behaviour, minimise maritime mishaps and preserve the long-term sustainability of coastal ecosystems in the face of difficulties posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37678395, year = {2023}, author = {Bernstein, J}, title = {Not the Last Word: Climate Change Comes to Orthopaedics.}, journal = {Clinical orthopaedics and related research}, volume = {481}, number = {10}, pages = {1878-1885}, pmid = {37678395}, issn = {1528-1132}, mesh = {Humans ; *Orthopedics ; Climate Change ; *Orthopedic Procedures ; }, }
@article {pmid37678384, year = {2024}, author = {Freidin, N and Hayes, E and Struthers, SA}, title = {Implications of climate change on acute kidney injury.}, journal = {Current opinion in nephrology and hypertension}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {83-88}, doi = {10.1097/MNH.0000000000000926}, pmid = {37678384}, issn = {1473-6543}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Risk Factors ; *Acute Kidney Injury/epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change is an active and growing threat to human health. This review examines the evidence linking climate change to kidney diseases, with a focus on acute kidney injury (AKI).<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: A growing body of evidence documents the adverse impact of various environmental and occupational exposures on kidney health. Extreme heat exposure increases the risk for AKI in vulnerable populations, particularly outdoor workers. These effects are being seen in both developed and developing nations, impacting equatorial as well as more northern climates. Climate change is also increasing the risk of water-borne and vector-borne infections, which are important causes of AKI in tropical regions. Due to overlapping environmental and social risk factors, populations in low-income and middle-income countries are likely to be disproportionately affected by climate-related health impacts, including heightened risk for kidney diseases.<br><br>SUMMARY: Climate change will adversely impact global kidney health over the course of the century through effects on temperature and risk of endemic infections. Alongside efforts to aggressively reduce carbon emissions, additional research is needed to guide public and environmental health policies aimed at mitigating the impact of climate change on human health.}, }
@article {pmid37678025, year = {2023}, author = {Barberà-Mariné, MG and Fabregat-Aibar, L and Neumann-Calafell, AM and Terceño, A}, title = {Climate change and stock returns in the european market: An environmental intensity approach.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {345}, number = {}, pages = {118927}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118927}, pmid = {37678025}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Carbon ; European Union ; Government ; }, abstract = {Climate change has become a risk that companies, governments and stakeholders must consider. Climate risk affects everything from people's health to the performance of companies. The European Union has approved various legislations and action plans to counteract the effects of climate change in a pioneering strategy. Companies can play a critical role in mitigating climate change and creating a more sustainable future by integrating environmental considerations into their decision-making processes. However, this integration may impact their performance. This paper aims to analyse the effect of climate change on the stock returns of European companies. The study sample consists of 265 companies listed in the Stoxx 600 index between 2015 and 2021 and the methodology used is the econometric method for panel data. The results show that carbon emissions have a negative effect on the performance of companies. Oppositely, a good rating in the environmental pillar has a positive impact on returns.}, }
@article {pmid37678020, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, W and Zhou, H and Wu, Y and Wang, J and Zhao, Z and Li, Y and Qiao, L and Chen, K and Liu, G and Ritsema, C and Geissen, V and Sha, X}, title = {Effects of deterministic assembly of communities caused by global warming on coexistence patterns and ecosystem functions.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {345}, number = {}, pages = {118912}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118912}, pmid = {37678020}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Climate Change ; Filtration ; *Microbiota ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Seasonal rhythms in biological and ecological dynamics are fundamental in regulating the structuring of microbial communities. Evaluating the seasonal rhythms of microorganisms in response to climate change could provide information on their variability and stability over longer timescales (>20-year). However, information on temporal variability in microorganism responses to medium- and long-term global warming is limited. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the temporal dynamics of microbial communities in response to global warming; to this end, we integrated data on the maintenance of species diversity, community composition, temporal turnover rates (v), and community assembly process in two typical ecosystems (meadows and shrub habitat) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our results showed that 21 years of global warming would increase the importance of the deterministic process for microorganisms in both ecosystems across all seasons (R[2] of grassland (GL) control: 0.524, R[2] of GL warming: 0.467; R[2] of shrubland (SL) control: 0.556, R[2] of SL warming: 0.543), reducing species diversity and altering community composition. Due to environmental filtration pressure from 21 years of warming, the low turnover rate (v of warming: -3.13/-2.00, v of control: -2.44/-1.48) of soil microorganisms reduces the resistance and resilience of ecological communities, which could lead to higher community similarity and more clustered taxonomic assemblages occurring across years. Changes to temperature might increase selection pressure on specialist taxa, which directly causes dominant species (v of warming: -1.63, v of control: -2.49) primarily comprising these taxa to be more strongly impacted by changing temperature than conditionally (v of warming: -1.47, v of control: -1.75) or always rare taxa (v of warming: -0.57, v of control: -1.33). Evaluation of the seasonal rhythms of microorganisms in response to global warming revealed that the variability and stability of different microbial communities in different habitats had dissimilar biological and ecological performances when challenged with an external disturbance. The balance of competition and cooperation, because of environmental selection, also influenced ecosystem function in complex terrestrial ecosystems. Overall, our study enriches the limited information on the temporal variability in microorganism responses to 21 years of global warming, and provides a scientific basis for evaluating the impact of climate warming on the temporal stability of soil ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid37676437, year = {2022}, author = {Tsai, WA and Brosnan, CA and Mitter, N and Dietzgen, RG}, title = {Perspectives on plant virus diseases in a climate change scenario of elevated temperatures.}, journal = {Stress biology}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {37}, pmid = {37676437}, issn = {2731-0450}, abstract = {Global food production is at risk from many abiotic and biotic stresses and can be affected by multiple stresses simultaneously. Virus diseases damage cultivated plants and decrease the marketable quality of produce. Importantly, the progression of virus diseases is strongly affected by changing climate conditions. Among climate-changing variables, temperature increase is viewed as an important factor that affects virus epidemics, which may in turn require more efficient disease management. In this review, we discuss the effect of elevated temperature on virus epidemics at both macro- and micro-climatic levels. This includes the temperature effects on virus spread both within and between host plants. Furthermore, we focus on the involvement of molecular mechanisms associated with temperature effects on plant defence to viruses in both susceptible and resistant plants. Considering various mechanisms proposed in different pathosystems, we also offer a view of the possible opportunities provided by RNA -based technologies for virus control at elevated temperatures. Recently, the potential of these technologies for topical field applications has been strengthened through a combination of genetically modified (GM)-free delivery nanoplatforms. This approach represents a promising and important climate-resilient substitute to conventional strategies for managing plant virus diseases under global warming scenarios. In this context, we discuss the knowledge gaps in the research of temperature effects on plant-virus interactions and limitations of RNA-based emerging technologies, which should be addressed in future studies.}, }
@article {pmid37676286, year = {2023}, author = {Nilsson, RO and Demiroglu, OC}, title = {Impacts of climate change on dogsledding recreation and tourism in Arctic Sweden.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37676286}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {2018-0228//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; }, abstract = {The range of Arctic tourism supply is continuously increasing with a variety of tourism products on offer. However, climate change is becoming a more prominent issue threatening the operations of tourism businesses and the livelihood of some tourism actors, such as dogsledders. This article aims to fill the descriptive research gap that exists regarding the dependency on the physical environment, climate, and weather for dogsledding activities. This is achieved by studying how climate change may threaten possible climate and weather thresholds for these activities, and how climate change may affect the future opportunities for dogsledding in northern Sweden. The study is based on interviews with dogsledders in Arctic Sweden and climate projections from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). The results demonstrate the following thresholds for dogsledding activities: (1) dogsledding requires 10-20 cm of packed snow and/or solid ice on bodies of water, (2) above 15 °C is too hot for dogs to pull (wheeled) sledges, (3) cold weather thresholds are determined by visitors' preferences and are not considered a problem for dogsledders or dogs, and (4) rain can cancel tours for all dogsledders, and strong wind can cancel tours for dogsledders located in the mountain regions. Finally, extreme events such as heatwaves, storms, thunderstorms, forest fires, heavy rain, floods, and more rapid weather changes have already affected some dogsledders. These necessary thresholds for dogsledding activities could already be jeopardized for the southern and coastal locations of Arctic Sweden. In addition, the climate projections from SMHI show that warmer days and more precipitation in the form of rain will become more common in the future, especially in the absence of global mitigation measures. However, further research on vulnerability/resilience and adaption strategies for dogsledding activities is necessary to truly understand the impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37675628, year = {2023}, author = {Pawankar, R and Akdis, CA}, title = {Climate change and the epithelial barrier theory in allergic diseases: A One Health approach to a green environment.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {78}, number = {11}, pages = {2829-2834}, doi = {10.1111/all.15885}, pmid = {37675628}, issn = {1398-9995}, }
@article {pmid37674863, year = {2023}, author = {Daysarih, TR and Ana, S and Pablo, FA}, title = {The meteorological contrast index in the context of climate change and public health.}, journal = {MethodsX}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {102331}, pmid = {37674863}, issn = {2215-0161}, abstract = {In the context of climate change, extreme weather events and sudden shifts in weather patterns are becoming increasingly frequent. The atmosphere is considered a source of meteorological and climatic risks for human beings and living organisms. Numerous studies have examined the correlation between meteorological variables and human morbidity and mortality. However, only a few authors have investigated the impact of environmental changes on human health and, to our knowledge, there are no meteorological indices proposing a methodology for assessing changes in atmospheric conditions. Under the hypothesis that meteorological disruptions have an impact on human health, this article proposes a method to calculate a new index, the Meteorological Contrast Index (MCI), based on weather changes. This index takes into account three variables: i) categorization based on the type of atmospheric process, ii) changes in these categories over a specific time period, and iii) the level of stress associated with these changes, considering the severity of the transition from one category to another. If the predictive value of this index is proven for a specific meteorological variable and disease, it could be valuable in defining biometeorological early warning systems for the prevention and management of healthcare resources.•The Meteorological Contrast Index is the first index that proposes a method to assess changes in atmospheric conditions.•Atmospheric changes are a significant source of biometeorological distress, which can be quantitatively defined using the Meteorological Contrast Index.•Certain diseases are sensitive to the weather, and their incidence may increase under specific sequences of weather types.}, }
@article {pmid37674314, year = {2023}, author = {Pixley, KV and Cairns, JE and Lopez-Ridaura, S and Ojiewo, CO and Dawud, MA and Drabo, I and Mindaye, T and Nebie, B and Asea, G and Das, B and Daudi, H and Desmae, H and Batieno, BJ and Boukar, O and Mukankusi, CTM and Nkalubo, ST and Hearne, SJ and Dhugga, KS and Gandhi, H and Snapp, S and Zepeda-Villarreal, EA}, title = {Redesigning crop varieties to win the race between climate change and food security.}, journal = {Molecular plant}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {1590-1611}, doi = {10.1016/j.molp.2023.09.003}, pmid = {37674314}, issn = {1752-9867}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Food Supply ; Plant Breeding ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics ; *Fabaceae ; Food Security ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses daunting challenges to agricultural production and food security. Rising temperatures, shifting weather patterns, and more frequent extreme events have already demonstrated their effects on local, regional, and global agricultural systems. Crop varieties that withstand climate-related stresses and are suitable for cultivation in innovative cropping systems will be crucial to maximize risk avoidance, productivity, and profitability under climate-changed environments. We surveyed 588 expert stakeholders to predict current and novel traits that may be essential for future pearl millet, sorghum, maize, groundnut, cowpea, and common bean varieties, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We then review the current progress and prospects for breeding three prioritized future-essential traits for each of these crops. Experts predict that most current breeding priorities will remain important, but that rates of genetic gain must increase to keep pace with climate challenges and consumer demands. Importantly, the predicted future-essential traits include innovative breeding targets that must also be prioritized; for example, (1) optimized rhizosphere microbiome, with benefits for P, N, and water use efficiency, (2) optimized performance across or in specific cropping systems, (3) lower nighttime respiration, (4) improved stover quality, and (5) increased early vigor. We further discuss cutting-edge tools and approaches to discover, validate, and incorporate novel genetic diversity from exotic germplasm into breeding populations with unprecedented precision, accuracy, and speed. We conclude that the greatest challenge to developing crop varieties to win the race between climate change and food security might be our innovativeness in defining and boldness to breed for the traits of tomorrow.}, }
@article {pmid37673539, year = {2023}, author = {Pinho-Gomes, AC and Roaf, E and Fuller, G and Fowler, D and Lewis, A and ApSimon, H and Noakes, C and Johnstone, P and Holgate, S}, title = {Air pollution and climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {e727-e728}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00189-4}, pmid = {37673539}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid37673258, year = {2023}, author = {Silva, RFBD and Millington, JDA and Viña, A and Dou, Y and Moran, E and Batistella, M and Lapola, DM and Liu, J}, title = {Balancing food production with climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation in the Brazilian Amazon.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {904}, number = {}, pages = {166681}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166681}, pmid = {37673258}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Biodiversity ; Agriculture/methods ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation are two major environmental actions that need to be effectively performed this century, alongside ensuring food supply for a growing global human population. These three issues are highly interlinked through land management systems. Thus, major global food production regions located in biodiversity hotpots and with potential for carbon sequestration face trade-offs between these valuable land-based ecosystem services. The state of Mato Grosso in Brazil is one such region, where private lands that have been illegally used for agriculture could be restored to natural vegetation - with potential benefits for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, although with potentially negative effects on food production. To address this challenge, in this study we used a multicriteria nexus modeling approach that considers carbon stocks, priority areas for biodiversity conservation, and the opportunity for food production, to develop scenarios of land allocation that aim to balance the benefits and drawbacks of ecosystem restoration. Results show that forcing landowners to restore their individual lands compromises the potential for a "green land market" throughout the Amazon biome in which private landowners with lower food production capacities (e.g., less connected to markets and infrastructure) would benefit from restoration programs that compensate them for the inclusion of environmental restoration among their economic activities, instead of taking large economic risks to produce more food. We additionally highlight that strategic ecosystem restoration can achieve higher gains in biodiversity and carbon with lower costs of restoration actions and with minimal impacts on agriculture. Analyses like ours demonstrate how scenarios of land allocation that simultaneously address climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation through ecosystem restoration, while also minimizing possible impacts on food production, can be sought to move the world towards a sustainable future.}, }
@article {pmid37672550, year = {2023}, author = {Tenbrink, T and Willcock, S}, title = {Place attachment and perception of climate change as a threat in rural and urban areas.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {e0290354}, pmid = {37672550}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Problem Solving ; United Kingdom ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global threat to ecosystems and the people that depend on them. However, the perceived threat of climate change may vary spatially. Previous research suggests that inhabitants in rural areas show higher levels of place attachment (associating meaning with a specific place) than urbanites, possibly because rural people depend more directly on their local environment. This can shape perceptions and behaviours, such as enhanced willingness to engage in landscape preservation. Here we ask if it also makes rural people perceive climate change as a greater threat, using a representative sample of 1,071 survey respondents from across the United Kingdom (UK) to provide first-order insights. We found that, whilst indicators of place attachment were indeed more frequent in rural areas, the perceived threat of climate change in the most rural locations was lower. We discuss possible explanations for this pattern (including lower levels of awareness of the anthropogenic causes of climate change, lessened first-hand experiences of climate change impacts due to higher levels of regulating ecosystem services, and higher levels of resilience in rural areas related to a closer relationship with nature), and call for further research to investigate this.}, }
@article {pmid37672237, year = {2023}, author = {Abbasi, J}, title = {Critical Care Physician Takes on Climate Change in New WHO Role.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {330}, number = {12}, pages = {1120-1123}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2023.14207}, pmid = {37672237}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *World Health Organization ; *Critical Care ; *Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid37671604, year = {2023}, author = {Mao, H and Jiang, C and Tang, C and Nie, X and Du, L and Liu, Y and Cheng, P and Wu, Y and Liu, H and Kang, Z and Wang, X}, title = {Wheat adaptation to environmental stresses under climate change: Molecular basis and genetic improvement.}, journal = {Molecular plant}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {1564-1589}, doi = {10.1016/j.molp.2023.09.001}, pmid = {37671604}, issn = {1752-9867}, mesh = {*Triticum/genetics ; *Plant Breeding ; Climate Change ; Plants ; Stress, Physiological/genetics ; }, abstract = {Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is a staple food for about 40% of the world's population. As the global population has grown and living standards improved, high yield and improved nutritional quality have become the main targets for wheat breeding. However, wheat production has been compromised by global warming through the more frequent occurrence of extreme temperature events, which have increased water scarcity, aggravated soil salinization, caused plants to be more vulnerable to diseases, and directly reduced plant fertility and suppressed yield. One promising option to address these challenges is the genetic improvement of wheat for enhanced resistance to environmental stress. Several decades of progress in genomics and genetic engineering has tremendously advanced our understanding of the molecular and genetic mechanisms underlying abiotic and biotic stress responses in wheat. These advances have heralded what might be considered a "golden age" of functional genomics for the genetic improvement of wheat. Here, we summarize the current knowledge on the molecular and genetic basis of wheat resistance to abiotic and biotic stresses, including the QTLs/genes involved, their functional and regulatory mechanisms, and strategies for genetic modification of wheat for improved stress resistance. In addition, we also provide perspectives on some key challenges that need to be addressed.}, }
@article {pmid37670788, year = {2023}, author = {Haque, F and Fan, C}, title = {Fate of microplastics under the influence of climate change.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {26}, number = {9}, pages = {107649}, pmid = {37670788}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Plastic pollution and climate change are two major environmental focuses. Having the forming potential due to ambient plastic pollution, the environmental fate of microplastics shall be inevitably impacted by global warming. This manuscript discusses the destiny of environmental microplastics and characterizes their fate considering the framework of the planetary boundary. The major routes for microplastic discharge include the release of microplastic stored in the ice into the sea when the ice melts as a result of global temperature increase, flushing of the plastic/microplastic debris from the shorelines into the adjacent water bodies as a result of increased rainfall, redistribution of the microplastics away from the source of plastic debris as a result of increased wind, and accumulation of microplastics in the soil as a result of drought. A perspective on the impact of climate change and microplastic pollution on aquatic and soil organisms was discussed as well.}, }
@article {pmid37670555, year = {2023}, author = {Rahimov, E}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Children in Azerbaijan.}, journal = {Turkish archives of pediatrics}, volume = {58}, number = {5}, pages = {562-563}, pmid = {37670555}, issn = {2757-6256}, }
@article {pmid37669497, year = {2023}, author = {Sorensen, C and Dresser, C and Balakumar, A and Wheat, S and Yates, E and Healy, JP and Brown, C and Butala, N and Lehmann, EY and Malina, G and Redelmeier, RJ and Hess, JJ and Salas, RN}, title = {Extramural US Federal Research Grants For Health Outcomes Associated With Climate Change Inadequate, Too Narrow In Focus.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {42}, number = {9}, pages = {1289-1297}, doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2022.01407}, pmid = {37669497}, issn = {1544-5208}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Awards and Prizes ; Cost of Illness ; Government Agencies ; Outcome Assessment, Health Care ; }, abstract = {Climate change causes and exacerbates disease, creates and worsens health disparities, disrupts health care delivery, and imposes a significant disease burden in the US and globally. Critical knowledge gaps hinder an evidence-based response and are perpetuated by scarce federal research funds. We identified and described extramural US federal research funding (that is, grants provided to organizations and institutions outside of federal agencies) that both addressed health outcomes associated with climate change and was awarded between 2010 and 2020. During this eleven-year period, 102 grants met our criteria, totaling approximately $58.7 million, or approximately $5.3 million per year (2020 adjusted US dollars). Federal investments in climate change and health research during this period failed to address the breadth of climate-sensitive exposures, health outcomes, and impacts on vulnerable populations. Moving forward, in addition to increasing investment in climate and health research across all known hazards, critical attention should be placed on vulnerable populations and health equity. To achieve this, increased federal research coordination and cooperation are needed, as well as a mechanism to track this funding.}, }
@article {pmid37668469, year = {2023}, author = {Mattoo, R and Mallikarjuna, S}, title = {Soil microbiome influences human health in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Future microbiology}, volume = {18}, number = {}, pages = {845-859}, doi = {10.2217/fmb-2023-0098}, pmid = {37668469}, issn = {1746-0921}, mesh = {Humans ; *Soil ; Climate Change ; Soil Microbiology ; Agriculture ; *Microbiota/physiology ; }, abstract = {Soil microbiomes continue to evolve and shape the human microbiota according to external anthropogenic and climate change effects. Ancient microbes are being exposed as a result of glacier melting, soil erosion and poor agricultural practices. Soil microbes subtly regulate greenhouse gas emissions and undergo profound alterations due to poor soil maintenance. This review highlights how the soil microbiome influences human digestion processes, mineral and vitamin production, mental health and mood stimulation. Although much about microbial functions remains unknown, increasing evidence suggests that beneficial soil microbes are vital for enhancing human tolerance to diseases and pathogens. Further research is essential to delineate the specific role of the soil microbiome in promoting human health, especially in light of the increasing anthropogenic pressures and changing climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37666929, year = {2023}, author = {Ameray, A and Bergeron, Y and Cavard, X}, title = {Modelling the potential of forest management to mitigate climate change in Eastern Canadian forests.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {14506}, pmid = {37666929}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Canada ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a serious risk to sustainable forest management, particularly in boreal forests where natural disturbances have been projected to become more severe. In three Quebec boreal forest management units, biomass carbon storage under various climate change and management scenarios was projected over 300 years (2010-2310) with a process-based dynamic landscape model (PnET-succession for Landis-II). Several strategies varying in their use of partial cuts and clear cuts, including business as usual (BAU) (clear-cut applied on more than 95% of the managed area), were tested and compared to conservation scenarios (no-harvest). Based on simulation results at the landscape scale, the clearcut-based scenarios such as BAU could result in a decrease of biomass carbon stock by 10 tC ha[-1] yr[-1] compared to the natural scenario. However, this reduction in carbon stock could be offset in the long term through changes in composition, as clearcut systems promote the expansion of trembling aspen and white birch. In contrast, the use of strategies based on partial cuts on more than 75% or 50% of the managed area was closer to or better than the natural scenario and resulted in greater coniferous cover retention. These strategies seemed to be the best to maximize and stabilize biomass carbon storage and ensure wood supply under different climate change scenarios, yet they would require further access and appropriate infrastructure. Furthermore, these strategies could maintain species compositions and age structures similar to natural scenarios, and thus may consequently help achieve forest ecosystem-based management targets. This study presents promising strategies to guide sustainable forest management in Eastern Canada in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37666333, year = {2023}, author = {Bin, Y and Huang, Z and Cao, H and Ye, W and Lian, J}, title = {Seed rain composition responds to climate change in a subtropical forest.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {903}, number = {}, pages = {166772}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166772}, pmid = {37666333}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Recent climate change has been shown to alter aspects of forest plant demography, such as growth and mortality, but less attention has been focused on how climate change alters the reproduction of plant populations through time. We hypothesized that the plant seed production would respond to climate change, and that the response would differ according to plant life form and functional traits. We tested this hypothesis by examining climate change from 2005 to 2020 and by determining the temporal trends of seed rain and seed production from plants with different life forms (e.g., herbs, vines, trees, palms) and of tree species with different statures as well as leaf, seed and wood traits during 2014-2020. We also tested the correlation between meteorological variables and time series of seed rain using cross correlation analysis. We found increasing wetness (lower vapor pressure deficit) through time but with decreasing minimum relative humidity, which is a pattern consistent with trends seen in many other parts of the world. During the study period, seed production of shrubs and relative contribution of woody vines to total seed rain decreased, while relative contribution of palms to total seed rain and tree species with more conservative leaf traits increased their contribution to total seed rain. Overall, these trends were well explained by the trends of meteorological variables and the responses of these life forms to climate change in previous studies. Additionally, the increasingly conservative leaf traits were also consistent with shifts in traits following recovery from disturbance. Our results suggest that a trait-based approach may help to unveil trends that are not readily apparent by examining seed counts alone. The compositional change found in the seed rain may indicate future shifts in forest species composition and should be incorporated into future studies of forest modelling and projections under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37666141, year = {2023}, author = {LaTourette, SM and Angarone, N}, title = {Protecting our coast and our coastal way of life: In the face of climate change, it's a dynamic and delicate balance.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {195}, number = {}, pages = {115223}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115223}, pmid = {37666141}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, }
@article {pmid37665952, year = {2023}, author = {Veenhof, RJ and Champion, C and Dworjanyn, SA and Schwoerbel, J and Visch, W and Coleman, MA}, title = {Projecting kelp (Ecklonia radiata) gametophyte thermal adaptation and persistence under climate change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcad132}, pmid = {37665952}, issn = {1095-8290}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Kelp forests underpin temperate marine ecosystems but are declining due to ocean warming, causing loss of associated ecosystem services. Projections suggest significant future decline but often only consider the persistence of adult sporophytes. Kelps have a biphasic life cycle, and the haploid gametophyte can be more thermally tolerant than the sporophyte. Therefore, projections may be altered when considering thermal tolerance of gametophytes.<br><br>METHODS: We undertook thermal tolerance experiments to quantify the effect of temperature on gametophyte survival, relative growth rates (RGR) and sex ratio for three genetically distinct populations of Ecklonia radiata gametophytes from comparatively high, mid and low latitudes (43&#xb0;, 33&#xb0; and 30&#xb0;S). We then used this data to project the likely consequences of climate induced thermal change on gametophyte persistence and performance across its eastern Australian range, using generalised additive and linear models.Key results All populations were adapted to local temperatures and their thermal maximum was 2-3&#xb0;C above current maximum in situ temperatures. The lowest latitude population was most thermally tolerant (~70% survival up to 27&#xb0;C), while survival and RGR decreased beyond 25.5&#xb0;C and 20.5&#xb0;C for the mid- and low latitude populations, respectively. Sex ratios were skewed towards females with increased temperature in the low- and high latitude populations. Spatially explicit model projections under future ocean warming (2050-centred) revealed a minimal decline in survival (0-30%) across populations, relative to present-day predictions. RGRs were also projected to decline minimally (0-2% d -1).Conclusions: Our results contrast with projections for the sporophyte stage of E. radiata, which suggest a 257 km range contraction concurrent with loss of the low latitude population by 2100. Thermal adaptation in E. radiata gametophytes suggests this life stage is likely resilient to future ocean warming and is unlikely a bottleneck for the future persistence of kelp.}, }
@article {pmid37665245, year = {2023}, author = {Caccavo, JA and Frémont, P and Jaillon, O and Gehlen, M}, title = {Climate genomics-Geoscientists, ecologists, and geneticists must reinforce their collaborations to confront climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {21}, pages = {5999-6001}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16924}, pmid = {37665245}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {ANR-11-IDEX-0004-17-EURE-0006//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Plankton ; Genomics ; }, abstract = {Geoscientists and ecologists alike must confront the impact of climate change on ecosystems and the services they provide. In the marine realm, major changes are projected in net primary and export production, with significant repercussions on food security, carbon storage, and climate system feedbacks. However, these projections do not include the potential for rapid linear evolution to facilitate adaptation to environmental change. Climate genomics confronts this challenge by assessing the vulnerability of ecosystem services to climate change. Because DNA is the primary biological repository of detectable environmentally selected mutations (showing evidence of change before impacts arise in morphological or metabolic patterns), genomics provides a window into selection in response to climate change, while also recording neutral processes deriving from stochastic mechanisms (Lowe et al., Trends in Ecology &amp; Evolution, 2017; 32:141-152). Due to the revolution afforded by sequencing technology developments, genomics can now meet ecologists and climate scientists in a cross-disciplinary space fertile for collaborations. Collaboration between geoscientists, ecologists, and geneticists must be reinforced in order to combine modeling and genomics approaches at every scale to improve our understanding and the management of ecosystems under climate change. To this end, we present advances in climate genomics from plankton to larger vertebrates, stressing the interactions between modeling and genomics, and identifying future work needed to develop and expand the field of climate genomics.}, }
@article {pmid37664510, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, T and Chen, JY and Sun, WB}, title = {Distributional responses to climate change of two maple species in southern China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e10490}, pmid = {37664510}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change is a major factor affecting biodiversity and species distribution, particularly of montane species. Species may respond to climate change by shifting their range to higher elevations. The southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Hengduan Mountains are considered as global biodiversity hotspots. However, information on the response of maple species to climate change in these regions was limited. Therefore, we selected two maple species that occur there and assessed changes in their habitat suitability under past, present and future climate scenarios in Biomod2. The results showed that temperature seasonality (bio4) was the most critical factor influencing their potential distributions. The distribution of potentially suitable habitat for Acer caesium and Acer stachyophyllum was predicted to be larger during the LGM compared to the present. Under the current climate scenario, the largest areas of potentially suitable habitat for these species were mainly located in southeastern Tibet, the Hengduan Mountains in northwestern Yunnan and western Sichuan, the Qinling-Daba Mountains in southern Gansu and the Wumeng-Daliang Mountains in northeastern Yunnan, western Guizhou and southeastern Sichuan. Under future climate change scenarios, the predicted loss of suitable habitat areas for these two species ranged from 13.78% to 45.71% and the increase ranged from 18.88% to 57.98%, with an overall increasing trend. The suitable habitat areas were predicted to shift towards the eastern parts of the QTP under both the pessimistic and optimistic future climate change scenarios in the 2050s and the 2070s, which became evident as global warming intensified, particularly in the eastern QTP and the Hengduan Mountains. Our results highlight the possibility that the diverse topography along altitudinal gradients in the QTP and the Hengduan Mountains may potentially mitigate the range contraction of mountain plants in response to climate warming. These findings provide a basis for planning conservation areas, planting and species conservation in the mountainous areas of southern China under the anticipated global warming.}, }
@article {pmid37663931, year = {2023}, author = {Piao, J and Chen, W and Wei, K and Cai, Q and Zhu, X and Du, Z}, title = {Increased sandstorm frequency in North China in 2023: Climate change reflection on the Mongolian plateau.}, journal = {Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {100497}, pmid = {37663931}, issn = {2666-6758}, }
@article {pmid37663864, year = {2023}, author = {Buist, Y and Bekker, M and Vaandrager, L and Koelen, M and van Mierlo, B}, title = {Strategies for public health adaptation to climate change in practice: social learning in the processionary Moth Knowledge Platform.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1179129}, pmid = {37663864}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {*Social Learning ; Climate Change ; Public Health ; Learning ; Netherlands ; }, abstract = {Social learning theory can support understanding of how a group of diverse actors addresses complex challenges related to public health adaptation. This study focuses on one specific issue of public health adaptation: oak processionary moth (OPM) adaptation. With a social learning framework, we examined how public health adaption strategies gradually develop and are adjusted on the basis of new knowledge and experiences. For this qualitative case study, data were collected through 27 meetings of the Processionary Moth Knowledge Platform in the Netherlands and six additional interviews. Results indicate that relations between stakeholders, including experts played a major role in the learning process, facilitating the development and implementation of OPM adaptation and connecting local challenges to national adaptation strategies. Uncertainties regarding knowledge and organization were recurrent topics of discussion, highlighting the iterative and adaptive nature of public health adaptation. The study emphasizes the importance of building relationships among stakeholders and small steps in the learning process that can lead to the creation of new strategies and, if successful, the prevention of negative health impacts.}, }
@article {pmid37663299, year = {2023}, author = {Lee, MA and Mondal, S and Teng, SY and Nguyen, ML and Lin, P and Wu, JH and Mondal, BK}, title = {Fishery-based adaption to climate change: the case of migratory species flathead grey mullet (Mugil cephalus L.) in Taiwan Strait, Northwestern Pacific.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e15788}, pmid = {37663299}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fisheries ; Taiwan ; *Smegmamorpha ; China ; }, abstract = {The flathead gray mullet (Mugil cephalus L.) is a cosmopolitan fish that lives in warm and temperate zones over 42°N-42°S. It is a key fish species for industrial fishing off coastal Taiwan. Gray mullets enter the coastal waters of the southeastern Taiwan Strait (22°N-25°N) to spawn in winter and feed in the coastal and tidal waters of China (25°N-30°N). From 1986 to 2010, the annual catch of gray mullet decreased substantially and remained low. Although the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation are recognized to affect gray mullet migration, the increase in sea surface temperature may be the main cause of the aforementioned decrease. We explored how weather changes affect fishing conditions and patterns at the gray mullet fishing grounds in Taiwan's coastal areas. Because of the decrease in gray mullet catches, the most common method for catching gray mullet in Taiwan's coastal areas between 1990 and 2010 was the use of drift or trawl nets instead of two-boat purse-seiner fleets. Since 2012, purse-seiner fleets have become the most common method for catching gray mullet. This trend indicates that the local fishing industry is adapting to changing environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37663149, year = {2023}, author = {Hu, K and He, Q}, title = {Rural-Urban Disparities in Multimorbidity Associated With Climate Change and Air Pollution: A Longitudinal Analysis Among Chinese Adults Aged 45.}, journal = {Innovation in aging}, volume = {7}, number = {6}, pages = {igad060}, pmid = {37663149}, issn = {2399-5300}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Chronic conditions and multimorbidity are increasing worldwide. Yet, understanding the relationship between climate change, air pollution, and longitudinal changes in multimorbidity is limited. Here, we examined the effects of sociodemographic and environmental risk factors in multimorbidity among adults aged 45+ and compared the rural-urban disparities in multimorbidity.<br><br>RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data on the number of chronic conditions (up to 14), sociodemographic, and environmental factors were collected in 4 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011-2018), linked with the full-coverage particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) concentration data set (2000-2018) and temperature records (2000-2018). Air pollution was assessed by the moving average of PM2.5 concentrations in 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years; temperature was measured by 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year moving average and their corresponding coefficients of variation. We used the growth curve modeling approach to examine the relationship between climate change, air pollution, and multimorbidity, and conducted a set of stratified analyses to study the rural-urban disparities in multimorbidity related to temperature and PM2.5 exposure.<br><br>RESULTS: We found the higher PM2.5 concentrations and rising temperature were associated with higher multimorbidity, especially in the longer period. Stratified analyses further show the rural-urban disparity in multimorbidity: Rural respondents have a higher prevalence of multimorbidity related to rising temperature, whereas PM2.5-related multimorbidity is more severe among urban ones. We also found temperature is more harmful to multimorbidity than PM2.5 exposure, but PM2.5 exposure or temperature is not associated with the rate of multimorbidity increase with age.<br><br>DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Our findings indicate that there is a significant relationship between climate change, air pollution, and multimorbidity, but this relationship is not equally distributed in the rural-urban settings in China. The findings highlight the importance of planning interventions and policies to deal with rising temperature and air pollution, especially for rural individuals.}, }
@article {pmid37662182, year = {2023}, author = {Aloisi, I and Yacoubi, I and Gadaleta, A and Schwember, AR and Marcotuli, I}, title = {Editorial: Exploiting wheat biodiversity and agricultural practices for tackling the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1257502}, pmid = {37662182}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid37661350, year = {2023}, author = {Abebe, N and Bailey, E and Radu, R}, title = {Film as a pedagogical tool for climate change and mental health nursing education.}, journal = {International journal of mental health nursing}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {1503-1508}, doi = {10.1111/inm.13203}, pmid = {37661350}, issn = {1447-0349}, support = {//AMS Student Society of UBC Vancouver/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Adolescent ; Climate Change ; *Psychiatric Nursing ; Health Education ; Curriculum ; Students ; *Education, Nursing ; }, abstract = {The relationship between climate change and worsening mental health is of increasing concern globally. Climate change is ubiquitous, yet marginalized populations bear a disproportionate burden of the physical and mental health impacts, while youth are more likely to report mental health concerns related to climate change than older generations. Mental health nurses will inevitably see these impacts play out in their practice, thus it is important to explore innovative tools for teaching about and responding to the emotional and psychological impacts of climate change. This perspective paper presents an educational project that utilized film and structured reflection to engage with the intersecting topics of planetary and mental health. The authors created a documentary film that presents the relationship between mental health and climate change as well as an accompanying reflective toolkit. Both the film and toolkit were integrated into an undergraduate course about the health impacts of climate change. This paper explores the relevance of climate change to mental health nursing education and practice, describes the process of creating and integrating the film and toolkit into a course and advances the position that film is an innovative way to engage individuals and communities (such as student or community groups) with the emotional and psychological concerns that arise in response to complex challenges of climate change. More research is needed to better understand the mental health impacts of climate change and to explore novel approaches to education and advocacy about this topic. We hope that sharing our project and experiences will inspire additional discussion and research related to these emerging issues that are of great relevance to mental health nursing.}, }
@article {pmid37661094, year = {2023}, author = {Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Melén, E and Forastiere, F and Gehring, U and Katsouyanni, K and Yorgancioglu, A and Ulrik, CS and Hansen, K and Powell, P and Ward, B and Hoffmann, B and Andersen, ZJ}, title = {Climate change and respiratory health: a European Respiratory Society position statement.}, journal = {The European respiratory journal}, volume = {62}, number = {2}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1183/13993003.01960-2022}, pmid = {37661094}, issn = {1399-3003}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Respiratory System ; }, }
@article {pmid37659644, year = {2023}, author = {Yang, L and Zhao, G and Mu, X and Liu, Y and Tian, P and Puqiong,  and Danzengbandian, }, title = {Historical and projected evolutions of glaciers in response to climate change in High Mountain Asia.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {237}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {117037}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.117037}, pmid = {37659644}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Glacier changes are regarded as the conspicuous icon of climate change in High Mountain Asia (HMA) alpine environments. Multi-temporal glacier coverage is essential for mass balance estimations and understanding glacial changes in response to climate variability. However, consistent multi-temporal glacier area datasets across the HMA are limited due to challenges posed by seasonal snow and cloud cover in remote sensing satellite images. In this study, a new method is proposed to estimate glacier and nonseasonal snow (GNS) areas by combining the normalized difference snow index (NDSI) and bright temperature bands from Landsat remote sensing images in 1990s, 2000s, 2010s and 2020s. Meanwhile, the integrated ice dynamic Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) is applied to simulate nine typical glaciers and project their changes using 15 general circulation models (GCMs) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results showed that total GNS areas in HMA were estimated at 71.26 × 10[3] km[2] in the 1990s, and decreased to 53.17 × 10[3] km[2] in the 2020s. Massive proportions of GNS were mainly distributed in the southeast and northwest region. Tipping points of GNS indicating a transition from mass balance gain to loss during four periods were detected in the Upper Tarim basin, Inner Tibetan Plateau, Upper Yangtze river basin, Upper Brahmaputra river basin, and Upper Salween river basin. The reduction of total GNS area was attributed to significantly rising temperature and decreasing solid precipitation. The projections indicate that glacier shrinkages will be the dominant trend in the future, and most typical glaciers will experience a mass loss of 60% under SSP245 (SSP2-RCP4.5) and over 90% under SSP585 (SSP5-RCP8.5) by the end of the century. The response of glaciers to climate change is also found to be influenced by factors including local topography and elevation ranges. The findings of this study provides a better understanding of glacial dynamics in response to climate change and highlights the importance of making water resources management strategies to mitigate the influence of glacier retreat.}, }
@article {pmid37657803, year = {2023}, author = {Fraser, D}, title = {Climate Change: Why Should Neonatal Care Providers Pay Attention?.}, journal = {Neonatal network : NN}, volume = {42}, number = {5}, pages = {252-253}, doi = {10.1891/NN-2023-0043}, pmid = {37657803}, issn = {1539-2880}, mesh = {Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; *Climate Change ; *Neonatology ; }, }
@article {pmid37657255, year = {2023}, author = {Martínez-Megías, C and Mentzel, S and Fuentes-Edfuf, Y and Moe, SJ and Rico, A}, title = {Corrigendum to "Influence of climate change and pesticide use practices on the ecological risks of pesticides in a protected Mediterranean wetland: A Bayesian network approach" [Sci. Total Environ. Volume 878 (2023), 163018].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {900}, number = {}, pages = {166444}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166444}, pmid = {37657255}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid37656421, year = {2023}, author = {Lee, YY and Roslan, NS and Tee, V and Koo, TH and Ibrahim, YS}, title = {Climate Change and the Esophagus: Speculations on Changing Disease Patterns as the World Warms.}, journal = {Current gastroenterology reports}, volume = {25}, number = {11}, pages = {280-288}, pmid = {37656421}, issn = {1534-312X}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Plastics ; *Gastroesophageal Reflux/diagnosis ; *Eosinophilic Esophagitis/diagnosis ; *Esophageal Neoplasms/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Esophageal disorders, including gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE), and esophageal cancer, may be affected by climate change. Our review describes the impact of climate change on risk factors associated with esophageal diseases and speculates how these climate-related factors impacted esophageal disorders and their management.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change is responsible for extreme weather conditions (shifts in rainfall, floods, droughts, and forest fires) and global warming. These consequences affect basic human needs of water and food, causing changes in population dynamics and pose significant threats to digestive health, including common esophageal disorders like GERD, EoE, and esophageal cancers. The changing patterns of esophageal diseases with climate change are likely mediated through risk factors, including nutrition, pollutants, microplastics, and the microbiota-gut-brain axis. The healthcare process itself, including GI endoscopy practices commonly employed in diagnosing and therapeutics of esophageal diseases, may, in turn, contribute to climate change through plastic wastage and greenhouse gas emissions, thus creating the climate change lifecycle. Breaking the cycle would involve changes at the individual level, community level, and national policy level. Prevention is key, with individuals identifying and remediating risk factors and reducing carbon footprints. The ABC (Advocacy, Broadcast, and Collaborate) activities would help enhance awareness at the community level. Higher-level programs such as the Bracing Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) would lead to broader and larger-scale adoption of public health adaptation strategies at the national level. The impact of climate change on esophageal disorders is likely real, mediated by several risk factors, and creates a climate change lifecycle that may only break if changes are made at individual, community, and national levels.}, }
@article {pmid37656005, year = {2023}, author = {Albacete, S and Sancho, G and Azpiazu, C and Rodrigo, A and Molowny-Horas, R and Sgolastra, F and Bosch, J}, title = {Bees exposed to climate change are more sensitive to pesticides.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {22}, pages = {6248-6260}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16928}, pmid = {37656005}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {PRE2019-090375//Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; PRE2019-088817//Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; PID2021-128938OB-I00//Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; RTI2018-098399-B-I00//Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; Margarita-Salas-scholarship//Spanish Ministry of Universities/ ; }, abstract = {Bee populations are exposed to multiple stressors, including land-use change, biological invasions, climate change, and pesticide exposure, that may interact synergistically. We analyze the combined effects of climate warming and sublethal insecticide exposure in the solitary bee Osmia cornuta. Previous Osmia studies show that warm wintering temperatures cause body weight loss, lipid consumption, and fat body depletion. Because the fat body plays a key role in xenobiotic detoxification, we expected that bees exposed to climate warming scenarios would be more sensitive to pesticides. We exposed O. cornuta females to three wintering treatments: current scenario (2007-2012 temperatures), near-future (2021-2050 projected temperatures), and distant-future (2051-2080). Upon emergence in spring, bees were orally exposed to three sublethal doses of an insecticide (Closer, a.i. sulfoxaflor; 0, 4.55 and 11.64 ng a.i./bee). We measured the combined effects of wintering and insecticide exposure on phototactic response, syrup consumption, and longevity. Wintering treatment by itself did not affect winter mortality, but body weight loss increased with increasing wintering temperatures. Similarly, wintering treatment by itself hardly influenced phototactic response or syrup consumption. However, bees wintered at the warmest temperatures had shorter longevity, a strong fecundity predictor in Osmia. Insecticide exposure, especially at the high dose, impaired the ability of bees to respond to light, and resulted in reduced syrup consumption and longevity. The combination of the warmest winter and the high insecticide dose resulted in a 70% longevity decrease. Smaller bees, resulting from smaller pollen-nectar provisions, had shorter longevity suggesting nutritional stress may further compromise fecundity in O. cornuta. Our results show a synergistic interaction between two major drivers of bee declines, and indicate that bees will become more sensitive to pesticides under the current global warming scenario. Our findings have important implications for pesticide regulation and underscore the need to consider multiple stressors to understand bee declines.}, }
@article {pmid37655740, year = {2023}, author = {Ayalon, L and de Mendonça Lima, CA and Banerjee, D and Rabheru, K and Fitzgerald, KG}, title = {Older persons in climate change-induced hazards and building forward better: International Psychogeriatric Association, World Psychiatric Association-Section of Old Age Psychiatry, and NGO Committee on Ageing in Geneva position statement.}, journal = {International psychogeriatrics}, volume = {35}, number = {11}, pages = {589-591}, doi = {10.1017/S1041610223000765}, pmid = {37655740}, issn = {1741-203X}, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Geriatric Psychiatry ; Climate Change ; Aging/psychology ; *Mental Disorders/psychology ; }, }
@article {pmid37655544, year = {2023}, author = {Dellaert, Z and Putnam, HM}, title = {Reconciling the variability in the biological response of marine invertebrates to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {226}, number = {17}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.245834}, pmid = {37655544}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Acclimatization ; *Anthozoa ; Biological Evolution ; Signal Transduction ; }, abstract = {As climate change increases the rate of environmental change and the frequency and intensity of disturbance events, selective forces intensify. However, given the complicated interplay between plasticity and selection for ecological - and thus evolutionary - outcomes, understanding the proximate signals, molecular mechanisms and the role of environmental history becomes increasingly critical for eco-evolutionary forecasting. To enhance the accuracy of our forecasting, we must characterize environmental signals at a level of resolution that is relevant to the organism, such as the microhabitat it inhabits and its intracellular conditions, while also quantifying the biological responses to these signals in the appropriate cells and tissues. In this Commentary, we provide historical context to some of the long-standing challenges in global change biology that constrain our capacity for eco-evolutionary forecasting using reef-building corals as a focal model. We then describe examples of mismatches between the scales of external signals relative to the sensors and signal transduction cascades that initiate and maintain cellular responses. Studying cellular responses at this scale is crucial because these responses are the basis of acclimation to changing environmental conditions and the potential for environmental 'memory' of prior or historical conditions through molecular mechanisms. To challenge the field, we outline some unresolved questions and suggest approaches to align experimental work with an organism's perception of the environment; these aspects are discussed with respect to human interventions.}, }
@article {pmid37654467, year = {2023}, author = {Brkić, &#x17d;}, title = {Increasing water temperature of the largest freshwater lake on the Mediterranean islands as an indicator of global warming.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {e19248}, pmid = {37654467}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Global warming has been monitored for many years. The increase in air temperature and changes in the distribution and frequency of high temperatures are recorded continually. Lakes are one of the important water resources for aquatic ecosystems and water supply, which are significantly affected by global warming. The increase in lake water temperature increases the evaporation from the free lake surface, lowering the lake level, and changes the water quality. In the last few decades, analysis of changes in lake water temperature has been increasing. In situ measurements of water temperature in Vrana Lake on Cres island (Croatia), the largest freshwater lake on the Mediterranean islands, were analysed over 43 years. The results showed that the mean annual lake surface water temperature (LSWT) increased by 0.47 °C decade-1 (p < 0.0001). The increase in the mean annual lake summer surface water temperature (July-September) was 0.44 °C decade-1 (p < 0.0001), and the maximum annual LSWT was 0.56 °C decade-1 (p < 0.0001). All these amounts are in accordance with the published data on the increase in water temperature in the investigated European lakes. The number of days with LSWT higher than 25 °C increased by almost 9 d decade-1. An increase in the minimum LSWT (0.17 °C decade-1) corresponding to isothermal conditions was also determined but was not statistically significant. The minimum mean monthly LSWT increased by 0.36 °C decade-1 (p < 0.0001). Because the increase in water temperature can negatively affect the lake's ecosystem, and become a threat to safe water supply; LSWT, thermal stratification and evaporation should be continuously monitored. The impacts of climate warming on the lake stratification and aquatic ecosystems need to be further investigated.}, }
@article {pmid37653961, year = {2023}, author = {Tapaça, IDPE and Mavuque, L and Corti, R and Pedrazzani, S and Maquia, ISA and Tongai, C and Partelli, FL and Ramalho, JC and Marques, I and Ribeiro-Barros, AI}, title = {Genomic Evaluation of Coffea arabica and Its Wild Relative Coffea racemosa in Mozambique: Settling Resilience Keys for the Coffee Crop in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {37653961}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {Triangular Project TriCaf&#xe9;(GorongosaCoffee)//Parque Nacional da Gorongosa (PNG)/ ; Triangular Project TriCaf&#xe9;(GorongosaCoffee)//Ag&#xea;ncia Brasileira de Coopera&#xe7;&#xe3;o/ ; Triangular Project TriCaf&#xe9;(GorongosaCoffee)//Cam&#xf5;es, Instituto da Coopera&#xe7;&#xe3;o e da L&#xed;ngua/ ; UIDB/00239/2020 (CEF)//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; UIDP/04035/2020 (GeoBioTec)//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; Scientific Employment Stimulus - Individual Call (CEEC Individual) 2021.01107.CEECIND/CP1689/CT0001//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is negatively affecting the coffee value chain, with a direct effect on approximately 100 million people from 80 countries. This has been attributed to the high vulnerability of the two-mainstream species, Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora, to extreme weather events, with notable uneven increases in market prices. Taking into account the narrow genetic plasticity of the commercial coffee cultivars, wild-relatives and underutilized Coffea species are valuable genetic resources. In this work, we have assessed the occurrence of Coffea species in to understand the degree of genetic relationships between Coffea species in the country, as well as the patterns of genetic diversity, differentiation, and genetic structure. Only one wild species was found, C. racemosa, which showed a high level of genetic separation with C. arabica, based on plastid, as well as SSR and SNP analysis. C. arabica presented low levels of diversity likely related to their autogamous nature, while the allogamous C. racemosa presented higher levels of diversity and heterozygosity. The analysis of the functional pathways based on SNPs suggests that the stress signaling pathways are more robust in this species. This novel approach shows that it is vital to introduce more resilient species and increase genomic diversity in climate-smart practices.}, }
@article {pmid37653934, year = {2023}, author = {Alarcón, D and Santos, D and Arroyo, MTK}, title = {Population-Based Evidence of Climate Change Adaptation in an Endangered Plant Endemic to a Biodiversity Hotspot.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {37653934}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {3200675//ANID FONDECYT Postdoctoral Grant/ ; FB210006//ANID PIA/BASAL Grant/ ; PFB210018//ANID PIA/BASAL Grant/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to impact both the population structure and geographic distribution of plants. Species distribution models are widely used to assess range shifts and the vulnerability of plants to climate change. Despite the abundance of modeling studies, little is known about how existing populations respond to climate change. We investigated the demographic structure and vulnerability to climate change in Anemone moorei, a sub-shrub with a highly restricted distribution in a biodiversity hotspot. We improved the distribution knowledge through intensive field work. We conducted a census of stem length as a proxy for age for all known populations. We used ensemble forecasting to project distributions considering 10 future climate scenarios and developed a novel climate change vulnerability index for the species' distribution. We found that the mean stem length decreases and the proportion of young plants increases, while the size of fruiting plants decreases as A. moorei faces greater climate change vulnerability. We interpret these results as evidence for the onset of recent adaptation to climate change, consisting of reduced adult longevity and an earlier onset of reproduction. As a result of these changes, the proportion of juveniles in the population increases.}, }
@article {pmid37653883, year = {2023}, author = {González-Pérez, A and Álvarez-Esteban, R and Penas, &#xc1; and Del Río, S}, title = {Bioclimatic Characterisation of Specific Native Californian Pinales and Their Future Suitability under Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {37653883}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {BDNS (Ident.): 487971//Junta de Castilla y Le&#xf3;n/ ; }, abstract = {Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns under climate change scenarios are accelerating the depletion of soil moisture and increasing the risk of drought, disrupting the conditions that many plant species need to survive. This study aims to establish the bioclimatic characterisation, both qualitative and quantitative, of ten native Californian Pinales for the period 1980-2019, and to determine their habitat suitability by 2050. To achieve this, an exhaustive search of the Gbif database for records of ten conifer taxa was carried out. To conduct the bioclimatic characterisation of the studied taxa, we worked with the monthly values of average temperature and precipitation for the period 1980-2019 from 177 meteorological stations. Linear regressions was performed in order to compile the future evolution of California's climate. Suitable areas and optimal areas were defined at the present time (1980-2019) and its future projection (2050). We applied Boolean logic and, in this investigation, the Conditional Logic Operator (CON) was used to determine the possible species presence (one) or absence (zero) for each of the 15 variables analysed. In general, most of the conifers studied here will experience a reduction in their habitat range in California by the year 2050 due to climate change, as well as the displacement of species towards optimal areas. Furthermore, the results have highlighted the applicability of bioclimatology to future conditions under climate change. This will aid conservation managers in implementing strategic measures to ameliorate the detrimental impacts of climate change, thereby ensuring the ecological integrity and sustainability of the affected conifer species.}, }
@article {pmid37652390, year = {2023}, author = {Deng, X and Huang, Y and Yuan, W and Zhang, W and Ciais, P and Dong, W and Smith, P and Qin, Z}, title = {Building soil to reduce climate change impacts on global crop yield.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {903}, number = {}, pages = {166711}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166711}, pmid = {37652390}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Improving soil health and resilience is fundamental for sustainable food production, however the role of soil in maintaining or improving global crop productivity under climate warming is not well identified and quantified. Here, we examined the impact of soil on yield response to climate warming for four major crops (i.e., maize, wheat, rice and soybean), using global-scale datasets and random forest method. We found that each °C of warming reduced global yields of maize by 3.4%, wheat by 2.4%, rice by 0.3% and soybean by 5.0%, which were spatially heterogeneous with possible positive impacts. The random forest modeling analyses further showed that soil organic carbon (SOC), as an indicator of soil quality, dominantly explained the spatial heterogeneity of yield responses to warming and would regulate the negative warming responses. Improving SOC under the medium SOC sequestration scenario would reduce the warming-induced yield loss of maize, wheat, rice and soybean to 0.1% °C[-1], 2.7% °C[-1], 3.4% °C[-1] and - 0.6% °C[-1], respectively, avoiding an average of 3%-5% °C[-1] of global yield loss. These yield benefits would occur on 53.2%, 67.8%, 51.8% and 71.6% of maize, wheat, rice and soybean planting areas, respectively, with particularly pronounced benefits in the regions with negative warming responses. With improved soil carbon, food systems are predicted to provide additional 20 to over 130 million tonnes of food that would otherwise lose due to future warming. Our findings highlight the critical role of soil in alleviating negative warming impacts on food security, especially for developing regions, given that sustainable actions on soil improvement could be taken broadly.}, }
@article {pmid37650435, year = {2023}, author = {Lin, L and Liu, Y and Yan, Y and Kang, B}, title = {Optimizing efficiency and resilience of no-take marine protected areas for fish conservation under climate change along the coastlines of China Seas.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e14174}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.14174}, pmid = {37650435}, issn = {1523-1739}, support = {41976091//National Natural&#xa0;Science Foundation of China/ ; U20A2087//National Natural&#xa0;Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the major threats to coastal fish biodiversity, and optimization of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) is imminent. We predicted fish redistribution under climate change in coastal China Seas with joint species distribution modeling and prioritized areas for conservation with Zonation, for which we used core area zonation (CAZ) and additive benefit function (ABF). Based on our results, we devised an expansion plan of no-take MPAs. Under climate change, fish were redistributed northward along the coast. These redistributions were segmented by the Yangtze River estuary and its adjacent waters, indicating a possible biogeographical barrier. Under CAZ and ABF, significantly more fish habitat was conserved than under random prioritization (p < 0.001, Cohen's d = -0.36 and -0.62, respectively). The ABF better represented areas with higher species richness, whereas CAZ better represented core habitats for species with narrow distributions. Without accounting for species redistribution, the expanded MPAs were mainly distributed in the northwest of the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the north of the Yellow Sea, and the west of the Bohai Sea. When accounting for species redistribution, the proposed MPAs were mainly distributed in the north of the Bohai Sea and southwest of the Yellow Sea, corresponding to the northern species redistributions. These MPAs conserved less habitat for fishes at present but protected more and better quality habitat for fishes in 2050 and 2100 than those MPAs that did not account for species redistribution, indicating improved fish conservation under climate change. Incorporating species redistribution and trade-offs between areas with high species richness and areas that contain habitats for rare species are suggested to address coastal fish conservation under climate change. This work provides valuable information for fish conservation and is a precursor to systematic conservation planning along the coastlines of China Seas.}, }
@article {pmid37650224, year = {2023}, author = {Goniewicz, K and Khorram-Manesh, A and Burkle, FM}, title = {Beyond Boundaries: Addressing Climate Change, Violence, and Public Health.}, journal = {Prehospital and disaster medicine}, volume = {38}, number = {5}, pages = {551-554}, doi = {10.1017/S1049023X23006271}, pmid = {37650224}, issn = {1945-1938}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Violence ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid37648720, year = {2023}, author = {Khanal, C and Land, J}, title = {Study on two nematode species suggests climate change will inflict greater crop damage.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {14185}, pmid = {37648720}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Temperature ; Soil ; *Nematoda ; }, abstract = {Food security has become one of the greatest challenges of the millennium and it is predicted to be exacerbated by climate change due to the adverse effects of soil temperature on crop productivity. Although plant-parasitic nematodes are one of the most important limiting factors of agricultural production, the fate of soil temperature in their biology is not fully understood. Here we present the effects of soil temperature on survival, reproduction, virulence, and disease severity from the perspective of two nematode species Rotylenchulus reniformis and Meloidogyne floridensis. The two nematode species were purposefully selected to represent a significant threat to annual and perennial crops. We employed novel approaches of direct as well as indirect heat exposure to evaluate nematode biology. The direct heat exposure assay involved the exposure of nematodes to hot water in a heating block at 32, 33, and 34 °C for 7 h, and subsequent evaluation of their survival after 18 h. The indirect exposure assay employed a commercial heat mat to raise soil temperatures to 32, 33, and 34 °C for 7 h during the daytime, and subsequent evaluation of nematode reproduction, virulence, and/or disease severity over the period of 6 weeks after inoculation. When directly exposed to hot water at 34 °C, the survival of R. reniformis increased by 10% while the survival of M. floridensis decreased by 12% relative to that at 32 °C. Upon increasing soil temperatures from 32 to 34 °C, the reproduction of R. reniformis and M. floridensis decreased by 49% and 53%, respectively. A significant reduction in the reproduction of M. floridensis occurred when soil temperature was increased from 33 to 34 °C, however, the same condition did not significantly affect R. reniformis reproduction suggesting the latter species has a greater ability to adapt to increasing soil temperature. Additionally, the virulence of R. reniformis was greater at 33 and 34 °C relative to that at 30 °C indicating increased aggressiveness of the nematode at higher soil temperatures. The virulence of M. floridensis appeared to be decreased as evident from increased root biomass when soil temperature was increased from 32 to 34 °C, however, the greater root biomass may have resulted from increased root galling at the higher temperatures. Results of the current study suggest that while higher soil temperatures due to climate change may lead to reduced nematode reproduction, crop losses will likely increase due to increased nematode virulence. Through the current study, we report practical evidence of the quantitative impact of climate change on the biology of plant-parasitic nematodes. Further studies involving a wider range of temperature and exposure time are needed to better understand nematode biology under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37648573, year = {2023}, author = {Cuartas, J and Bhatia, A and Carter, D and Cluver, L and Coll, C and Donger, E and Draper, CE and Gardner, F and Herbert, B and Kelly, O and Lachman, J and M'jid, NM and Seidel, F}, title = {Climate change is a threat multiplier for violence against children.}, journal = {Child abuse &amp; neglect}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {106430}, doi = {10.1016/j.chiabu.2023.106430}, pmid = {37648573}, issn = {1873-7757}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The climate crisis is the biggest threat to the health, development, and wellbeing of the current and future generations. While there is extensive evidence on the direct impacts of climate change on human livelihood, there is little evidence on how children and young people are affected, and even less discussion and evidence on how the climate crisis could affect violence against children.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: In this commentary, we review selected research to assess the links between the climate crisis and violence against children.<br><br>METHODS: We employ a social-ecological perspective as an overarching framework to organize findings from the literature and call attention to increased violence against children as a specific, yet under-examined, direct and indirect consequence of the climate crisis.<br><br>RESULTS: Using such a perspective, we examine how the climate crisis exacerbates the risk of violence against children at the continually intersecting and interacting levels of society, community, family, and the individual levels. We propose increased risk of armed conflict, forced displacement, poverty, income inequality, disruptions in critical health and social services, and mental health problems as key mechanisms linking the climate crisis and heightened risk of violence against children. Furthermore, we posit that the climate crisis serves as a threat multiplier, compounding existing vulnerabilities and inequities within populations and having harsher consequences in settings, communities, households, and for children already experiencing adversities.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We conclude with a call for urgent efforts from researchers, practitioners, and policymakers to further investigate the specific empirical links between the climate crisis and violence against children and to design, test, implement, fund, and scale evidence-based, rights-based, and child friendly prevention, support, and response strategies to address violence against children.}, }
@article {pmid37647695, year = {2023}, author = {Parvin, S and Sakib, MH and Islam, ML and Brown, CL and Islam, MS and Mahmud, Y}, title = {Coastal aquaculture in Bangladesh: Sundarbans's role against climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {194}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {115431}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115431}, pmid = {37647695}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Bangladesh ; Aquaculture ; Agriculture ; *Cyclonic Storms ; }, abstract = {The Sundarbans, a natural shield on earth, is one and only place that has many noteworthy environmental and geographical values with breathtaking natural beauties. Near the Sundarbans area, proliferation of aquaculture in this delta contributes appreciably to the national economy. Although aquaculture has become a means of daily livelihood, this sector is nevertheless threatened by a complex of climate change impacts. Cyclones, rising temperatures, rising sea levels, coastal flooding, and erosion make coastal farming difficult. As a panacea, the Sundarbans can play a critical role in preserving coastal aquaculture. As noticed, forests have high potential to recover from unusual consequences of climate change. Practicing safe aquaculture should be opted to refrain from endangering the Sundarbans. This review addressed various climate change impacts on coastal farming and identified the capabilities of the Sundarbans to protect coastal aquaculture from calamitous impacts. Findings show clues for researchers to analyze problems, consequences, and mitigations.}, }
@article {pmid37644268, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, C and He, YS and Tao, SS and Fang, Y and Zhang, RD and Fang, X and Jiang, LQ and Zhao, Y and Musonye, HA and Tao, JH and Pan, HF}, title = {Climate change and daily outpatient visits for dermatomyositis in Hefei, China: a time-series study.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {45}, pages = {101053-101063}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-023-29542-1}, pmid = {37644268}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {82273710, 81872687//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2108085Y26, 2108085QH361//Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation/ ; 2021zhyx-B04//Research Fund of Anhui Institute of Translational Medicine/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; Aged ; *Outpatients ; Climate Change ; *Dermatomyositis/epidemiology ; Temperature ; China ; Fever ; }, abstract = {With the deepening of research on the correlation between meteorological factors and autoimmune diseases, the relationship between climate change and dermatomyositis (DM) has come to our attention. This study aimed to explore the short-term correlation between meteorological factors and DM outpatient visits. Daily records of hospital outpatient visits for DM, air pollutants, and meteorological factor data in Hefei from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2021 were obtained. The mean temperature (MT), relative humidity (RH), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) were used to quantify environmental temperature and humidity and their variations. And we performed a time series analysis using a generalized linear model (GLM) in combination with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Furthermore, gender and age were further stratified for the analysis. The sensitivity analysis was also performed. A total of 4028 DM outpatient visits were recorded during this period. There were statistically significant associations of low temperature (5th, 1.5 °C), low RH (1st, 48.6%), high RH (99th, 99%), high DTR (75th, 12.6°c), and low TCN (10th, -2.7 °C) that were associated with risk of DM outpatient visits, with lag days of 30, 16, 16, 10, and 14, respectively. Moreover, women were more susceptible to high RH exposure and low TCN exposure, while the elderly were more susceptible to low temperature. This study concluded that exposure to low temperature, extreme RH, and temperature changes (especially high DTR and low TCN) was associated with an increased risk of DM outpatient visits.}, }
@article {pmid37643346, year = {2023}, author = {Korr, M}, title = {Q&amp;A: RI Physicians Sound Clarion Call on Climate Change.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {106}, number = {8}, pages = {59-60}, pmid = {37643346}, issn = {2327-2228}, }
@article {pmid37642792, year = {2023}, author = {KhokharVoytas, A and Shahbaz, M and Maqsood, MF and Zulfiqar, U and Naz, N and Iqbal, UZ and Sara, M and Aqeel, M and Khalid, N and Noman, A and Zulfiqar, F and Al Syaad, KM and AlShaqhaa, MA}, title = {Genetic modification strategies for enhancing plant resilience to abiotic stresses in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Functional &amp; integrative genomics}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {283}, pmid = {37642792}, issn = {1438-7948}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Gene Editing ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics ; Agriculture ; Cold Temperature ; }, abstract = {Enhancing the resilience of plants to abiotic stresses, such as drought, salinity, heat, and cold, is crucial for ensuring global food security challenge in the context of climate change. The adverse effects of climate change, characterized by rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events, pose significant threats to agricultural systems worldwide. Genetic modification strategies offer promising approaches to develop crops with improved abiotic stress tolerance. This review article provides a comprehensive overview of various genetic modification techniques employed to enhance plant resilience. These strategies include the introduction of stress-responsive genes, transcription factors, and regulatory elements to enhance stress signaling pathways. Additionally, the manipulation of hormone signaling pathways, osmoprotectant accumulation, and antioxidant defense mechanisms is discussed. The use of genome editing tools, such as CRISPR-Cas9, for precise modification of target genes related to stress tolerance is also explored. Furthermore, the challenges and future prospects of genetic modification for abiotic stress tolerance are highlighted. Understanding and harnessing the potential of genetic modification strategies can contribute to the development of resilient crop varieties capable of withstanding adverse environmental conditions caused by climate change, thereby ensuring sustainable agricultural productivity and food security.}, }
@article {pmid37641730, year = {2023}, author = {Mishra, AN and Maraun, D and Knevels, R and Truhetz, H and Brenning, A and Proske, H}, title = {Climate change amplified the 2009 extreme landslide event in Austria.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {176}, number = {9}, pages = {124}, pmid = {37641730}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Landslides are an important natural hazard in mountainous regions. Given the triggering and preconditioning by meteorological conditions, it is known that landslide risk may change in a warming climate, but whether climate change has already affected individual landslide events is still an open question, partly owing to landslide data limitations and methodological challenges in climate impact attribution. Here, we demonstrate the substantial influence of anthropogenic climate change on a severe event in the southeastern Alpine forelands with some estimated 952 individual landslides in June 2009. Our study is based on conditional event attribution complemented by an assessment of changes in atmospheric circulation. Using this approach, we simulate the meteorological event under observed and a range of counterfactual conditions of no climate change and explicitly predict the landslide occurrence probability for these conditions. We find that up to 10%, i.e., 95 landslides, can be attributed to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37641422, year = {2023}, author = {Usher Am, K and Rice, K and Fatema, SR and Upward, KL and Jones, R}, title = {Nurses on the frontline of health care in the escalating context of climate change: Climate-related extreme weather events, injustice, mental health and eco-anxiety.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jan.15838}, pmid = {37641422}, issn = {1365-2648}, }
@article {pmid37641080, year = {2023}, author = {Leal Filho, W and May, J and May, M and Nagy, GJ}, title = {Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {248}, pmid = {37641080}, issn = {1475-2875}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; Incidence ; Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Malaria is still a disease of massive burden in Africa, also influenced by climate change. The fluctuations and trends of the temperature and precipitation are well-known determinant factors influencing the disease's vectors and incidence rates. This study provides a concise account of malaria trends. It describes the association between average temperature and malaria incidence rates (IR) in nine sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The incidence of malaria can vary both in areas where the disease is already present, and in regions where it is present in low numbers or absent. The increased vulnerability to the disease under increasing average temperatures and humidity is due to the new optimal level for vector breeding in areas where vector populations and transmission are low, and populations are sensitive due to low acquired immunity.<br><br>METHODS: A second source trend analysis was carried out of malaria cases and incidence rates (the number of new malaria cases per 1000 population at risk per year) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and average annual mean temperature from 2000 to 2018 from the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). Additionally, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the development and trends in the selected countries. Furthermore, MS Excel was chosen for data analysis and visualization.<br><br>RESULTS: Findings obtained from this article align with the recent literature, highlighting a declining trend (20-80%) of malaria IR (incidence rate) from 2000 to 2018. However, malaria IR varies considerably, with high values in Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia, moderate values in Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, and low values in South Africa and Ethiopia in 2018. Evidence suggests varying IRs after average temperature fluctuations in several countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia). Also, an inverse temperature-IR relationship occurs, the sharp decrease of IR during 2012-2014 and 2000-2003, respectively, occurred with increasing average temperatures in Ghana and Nigeria. The decreasing trends and fluctuations, partly accompanying the temperature, should result from the intervention programmes and rainfall variability. The vulnerability and changing climate could arrest the recent trends of falling IR.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Thus, malaria is still a crucial public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, although a robust decreasing IR occurred in most studied countries.}, }
@article {pmid37640067, year = {2023}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Dinis, MAP and Nagy, GJ and Fracassi, U}, title = {On the (melting) rocks: Climate change and the global issue of permafrost depletion.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {903}, number = {}, pages = {166615}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166615}, pmid = {37640067}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This short communication reports on the pressures posed by climate change on permafrost. The phenomenon of the (melting) rocks, soil, and ground that host permafrost does not just concern a remote stretch of the Arctic north. It is a far larger area than most citizens may realise if looking at an ordinary map projection. Broadly distributed and crucial as it is for the Earth's climate, permafrost thawing due to climate change can affect or upend several aspects associated with life and prosperity on Earth, demanding far greater attention. The loss of permafrost is a global problem that requires a global solution. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) must be reduced to slow permafrost's thawing and negative impacts. As such, this short communication aims to catalyse a global debate on this climate change consequential issue, also providing specific suggestions for reducing the impacts of permafrost depletion.}, }
@article {pmid37639957, year = {2023}, author = {Aledo-Serrano, A and Battaglia, G and Blenkinsop, S and Delanty, N and Elbendary, HM and Eyal, S and Guekht, A and Gulcebi, MI and Henshall, DC and Hildebrand, MS and Macrohon, B and Madaan, P and Mifsud, J and Mills, JD and Neill, KH and Romagnolo, A and Vezzani, A and Sisodiya, SM}, title = {Erratum to ' Taking action on climate change: Testimonials and position statement from the International League Against Epilepsy Climate Change Commission' [Seizure Volume 106, March 2023, Pages 68-75].}, journal = {Seizure}, volume = {111}, number = {}, pages = {164}, doi = {10.1016/j.seizure.2023.08.013}, pmid = {37639957}, issn = {1532-2688}, }
@article {pmid37636866, year = {2023}, author = {Zhao, Y and Wen, Y and Zhang, W and Wang, C and Yan, Y and Hao, S and Zhang, D}, title = {Distribution pattern and change prediction of Phellodendron habitat in China under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e10374}, pmid = {37636866}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Phellodendron has always been of great significance in promoting human health and ecological restoration. However, human activities and climate change have severely affected habitat, population dynamics and sustainable use of Phellodendron. Little is known about the geographical distribution pattern and their responses to climate change of Phellodendron. In order to reveal the impact of climate change on Phellodendron, we conducted a study based on natural distribution data of two species (297 occurrence points), 20 environmental factors, and an optimized MaxEnt model. Our results identified the main environmental factors influencing Phellodendron, predicted their potential geographical distribution, and assessed migration trends under climate change in China. Our analysis showed that Ph. amurense and Ph. chinense have potential suitable habitats of 62.89 × 10[4] and 70.71 × 10[4] km[2], respectively. Temperature and precipitation were found to play an essential role in shaping the present geographical distribution of Phellodendron populations. Based on two future climate scenarios, we forecasted that the potential suitable habitat of Ph. amurense would decrease by 12.52% (SSP245) and increase by 25.28% (SSP585), while Ph. chinense would decline by 19.61% (SSP245) and 15.78% (SSP585) in the late-21st century. The potential suitable habitats of Ph. amurense and Ph. chinense would shift to northward and westward, respectively. Hydrothermal change was found to be the primary driver of the suitable habitat of Phellodendron populations in the future. We recommend establishing nature reserves for existing Phellodendron populations, especially Ph. chinense. Our study provided a practical framework for the impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Phellodendron species and guided regional cultivation, long-term conservation, and sustainable use.}, }
@article {pmid37636427, year = {2023}, author = {Dawid Mume, I and Haji Mohammed, J and Aman Ogeto, M}, title = {Impact of small-scale irrigation on the livelihood and resilience of smallholder farmers against climate change stresses: Evidence from Kersa district, eastern Oromia, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {e18976}, pmid = {37636427}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study mainly aimed to evaluate the impact of small-scale irrigation on the livelihood and resilience of farmers toward climate change in Kersa district of the eastern Oromia region of Ethiopia. A sample of 288 randomly selected households (158 non-adopters and 130 adopters) was used to gather the data. The data were analyzed using the resilience capacity index and propensity score matching methods. The resilience capacity index was utilized to summarize all the resilience indicators into a single value, and propensity score matching was used to evaluate the impact. The results of the average treatment effect on the treated analysis revealed that adopters were better-off in crop yields by 84.72 quintals per hectare, 55641.60 birr in total income, and by 2.02 resilience capacity index compared to non-adopters. The results of the study indicate that small-scale irrigation significantly improves farm households' livelihoods and mitigates the effects of climate change by enhancing their ability to respond to erratic weather events, which builds their resilience. Therefore, policymakers should prioritize small-scale irrigation practices to improve rural households' livelihoods and farmers' resilience in areas with irregular rainfall and a high risk of drought.}, }
@article {pmid37636123, year = {2023}, author = {Frioni, T and Pastore, C and Diago, MP}, title = {Editorial: Resilience of grapevine to climate change: from plant physiology to adaptation strategies, volume II.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1268158}, pmid = {37636123}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid37636100, year = {2023}, author = {Méndez-Cea, B and García-García, I and Linares, JC and Gallego, FJ}, title = {Warming appears as the main risk of non-adaptedness for western Mediterranean relict fir forests under expected climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1155441}, pmid = {37636100}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Circum-Mediterranean firs are considered among the most drought-sensitive species to climate change. Understanding the genetic basis of trees' adaptive capacity and intra-specific variability to drought avoidance is mandatory to define conservation measures, thus potentially preventing their extinction. We focus here on Abies pinsapo and Abies marocana, both relict tree species, endemic from south Spain and north Morocco, respectively. A total of 607 samples were collected from eight nuclei: six from Spanish fir and two from Moroccan fir. A genotyping by sequencing technique called double digestion restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-seq) was performed to obtain a genetic matrix based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This matrix was utilized to study the genetic structure of A. pinsapo populations and to carry out selection signature studies. In order to understand how Spanish fir and Moroccan fir cope with climate change, genotype-environment associations (GEAs) were identified. Further, the vulnerability of these species to climate variations was estimated by the risk of non-adaptedness (RONA). The filtering of the de novo assembly of A. pinsapo provided 3,982 SNPs from 504 out of 509 trees sequenced. Principal component analysis (PCA) genetically separated Grazalema from the rest of the Spanish populations. However, FST values showed significant differences among the sampling points. We found 51 loci potentially under selection. Homolog sequences were found for some proteins related to abiotic stress response, such as dehydration-responsive element binding transcription factor, regulation of abscisic acid signaling, and methylation pathway. A total of 15 associations with 11 different loci were observed in the GEA studies, with the maximum temperature of the warmest month being the variable with the highest number of associated loci. This temperature sensitivity was also supported by the risk of non-adaptedness, which yielded a higher risk for both A. pinsapo and A. marocana under the high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). This study sheds light on the response to climate change of these two endemic species.}, }
@article {pmid37635700, year = {2023}, author = {Sarkar, SM and Dhar, BK and Fahlevi, M and Ahmed, S and Hossain, MJ and Rahman, MM and Gazi, MAI and Rajamani, R}, title = {Climate Change and Aging Health in Developing Countries.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {7}, number = {8}, pages = {2200246}, pmid = {37635700}, issn = {2056-6646}, abstract = {The climate of the Earth has changed throughout history. Climate change negatively impacts human rights in a wide range of ways. The study aims to find out the impact of climate change on aging health in developing countries. The study found that public health will be devastated if climate change continues unabated. Countries that are least responsible for global warming are most susceptible to the effects of higher temperatures, such as death and disease. In low- and middle-income countries, disasters are more likely to happen to people aged 60 and over. Although climate change affects all of us, older people are especially at risk from it, as evidenced by a growing body of research. The study also offers countermeasures and suggestions to develop aging health in developing countries affected by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37632745, year = {2023}, author = {Tang, Y and Duan, H and Yu, SY}, title = {Protocol for estimating the impact of climate change on economic growth and inequality under climate policies.}, journal = {STAR protocols}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {102527}, pmid = {37632745}, issn = {2666-1667}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on economic inequality has attracted increasing attention from both government and academia. Here, we present a protocol for estimating both the impact of climate change on economic growth and economic growth inequality under multiple climate policies. We describe steps for constructing an uncertainty analysis framework, collecting and pre-processing data, and estimating the climate-economic response. We then detail procedures of predicting climate policy impact and calculating inter-country economic growth inequality. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Tang et al. (2023).[1].}, }
@article {pmid37631119, year = {2023}, author = {Jorge, AOS and Costa, ASG and Oliveira, MBPP}, title = {Adapting to Climate Change with Opuntia.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {16}, pages = {}, pmid = {37631119}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Adapting our food production chain and increasing the flora and fauna's livelihood in climate change-affected areas using Opuntia is not only theoretical but already exists in practice in many places. This cactus grows in unsuitable soil for most species as it is adapted to arid and semi-arid soils and hot weather. In these regions, Opuntia protects from erosion and contributes to soil health. The usage of this plant as fodder is also discussed, with immense potential in substituting a part of livestock's diet and even increasing the quality of the animal's by-products and decreasing water consumption. This would result in a feed that is low-cost and has a lower environmental impact. It is to be noted that Opuntia has a high potential as an invasive species, with caution always being recommended when dealing with this specie. The high content of specific compounds, such as proline, indicaxanthin, and betanin, found in Opuntia ficus-indica, influence the plant's adaptation to unfavourable conditions. This collective evidence depicts Opuntia as a crop that can battle climate change and ensure food security.}, }
@article {pmid37628979, year = {2023}, author = {Melendez-Perez, AM and Escobar Niño, A and Carrasco-Reinado, R and Martin Diaz, L and Fernandez-Acero, FJ}, title = {Proteomic Approach to Anemonia sulcata and Its Symbiont Symbiodinium spp. as New Source of Potential Biotechnological Applications and Climate Change Biomarkers.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {24}, number = {16}, pages = {}, pmid = {37628979}, issn = {1422-0067}, mesh = {Animals ; Proteomics ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Sea Anemones ; Proteome ; Chromatography, Liquid ; Tandem Mass Spectrometry ; Biomarkers ; *Dinoflagellida ; }, abstract = {Marine ecosystems are among the richest in terms of biodiversity, and at present, still remain largely unknown today. In the molecular biology era, several analyses have been conducted to unravel the biological processes in this ecosystem. These systems have provided biotechnological solutions to current problems, including the treatment of diseases, as well as for the development of new biotechnological tools with applications in biomedicine and/or agri-food. In addition, in the context of climate change and global warming, these studies become even more necessary for the development of molecular tools that allow a reliable follow-up of this situation to anticipate alterations and responses of bioindicator species and to create a database to prevent and predict the environmental and climatic changes before the damage is irreversible. Proteomics approaches have revealed their potential use to obtain the set of biological effectors that lead to the real biological station on a specific stage, the proteins. In addition, proteomics-based algorithms have allowed the discovery of proteins with new potential biotechnological applications from proteome data through "applied proteomics". In this project, the first proteome analysis of the sea anemone, Anemonia sulcata, and its symbiont has been developed. These organisms present a wide distribution sea ecosystem. In Spain, it is accepted as a fishing and aquaculture species. Moreover, Anemonia sulcate has a symbiotic relation with autotroph Dinoflagellates, Symbiodinium spp., that allows the study of its relation at the molecular level. For the first characterization of A. sulcata proteome, three independent biological replicates were used, and proteins were extracted and analyzed by LC-MS/MS, allowing the quantification of 325 proteins, 81 from Symbiodinium spp. proteins and 244 from A. sulcata proteins. These proteins were subjected to gene ontology categorization by Cellular Component, Molecular Function and Biological Process. These analyzes have allowed the identification of biomarkers of gene expression as potential powerful emerging diagnostic tools to identify and characterize the molecular drivers of climate change stresses and improve monitoring techniques. In addition, through the application of novel algorithms for the detection of bioactive compounds based on the analysis of molecules of marine origin, the proteome has allowed the identification of proteins with potential applications in the fields of biomedicine and agri-food.}, }
@article {pmid37627039, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, BX and Zhu, L and Ma, G and Najar-Rodriguez, A and Zhang, JP and Zhang, F and Avila, GA and Ma, CS}, title = {Correction: Wang et al. Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth Cadra figulilella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change Scenarios. Biology 2023, 12, 435.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {37627039}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {In the original publication [...].}, }
@article {pmid37625953, year = {2023}, author = {Lamine, I and Chahouri, A and Moukrim, A and Ait Alla, A}, title = {The impact of climate change and pollution on trematode-bivalve dynamics.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {191}, number = {}, pages = {106130}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106130}, pmid = {37625953}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seawater ; *Bivalvia/parasitology ; *Trematoda ; *Trematode Infections/veterinary/parasitology ; *Environmental Pollutants ; }, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems and their marine populations are increasingly threatened by global environmental changes. Bivalves have emerged as crucial bioindicators within these ecosystems, offering valuable insights into biodiversity and overall ecosystem health. In particular, bivalves serve as hosts to trematode parasites, making them a focal point of study. Trematodes, with their life cycles intricately linked to external factors, provide excellent indicators of environmental changes and exhibit a unique ability to accumulate pollutants beyond ambient levels. Thus, they act as living sentinels, reflecting the ecological condition of their habitats. This paper presents a comprehensive review of recent research on the use of bivalve species as hosts for trematodes, examining the interactions between these organisms. The study also investigates the combined impact of trematode infections and other pollutants on bivalve molluscs. Trematode infections have multifaceted consequences for bivalve species, influencing various aspects of their physiology and behavior, including population-wide mortality. Furthermore, the coexistence of trematode infections and other sources of pollution compromises host resistance, disrupts parasite transmission, and reduces the abundance of intermediate hosts for complex-living parasites. The accumulation process of these parasites is influenced not only by external factors but also by host physiology. Consequently, the implications of climate change and environmental factors, such as temperature, salinity, and ocean acidification, are critical considerations. In summary, the intricate relationship between bivalves, trematode parasites, and their surrounding environment provides valuable insights into the health and sustainability of coastal ecosystems. A comprehensive understanding of these interactions, along with the influence of climate change and environmental parameters, is essential for effective management and conservation strategies aimed at preserving these delicate ecosystems and the diverse array of species that rely on them.}, }
@article {pmid37623720, year = {2023}, author = {El-Seedi, HR and El-Mallah, MF and Yosri, N and Alajlani, M and Zhao, C and Mehmood, MA and Du, M and Ullah, H and Daglia, M and Guo, Z and Khalifa, SAM and Shou, Q}, title = {Review of Marine Cyanobacteria and the Aspects Related to Their Roles: Chemical, Biological Properties, Nitrogen Fixation and Climate Change.}, journal = {Marine drugs}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {37623720}, issn = {1660-3397}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide ; Nitrogen Fixation ; *Cyanobacteria ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {Marine cyanobacteria are an ancient group of photosynthetic microbes dating back to 3.5 million years ago. They are prolific producers of bioactive secondary metabolites. Over millions of years, natural selection has optimized their metabolites to possess activities impacting various biological targets. This paper discusses the historical and existential records of cyanobacteria, and their role in understanding the evolution of marine cyanobacteria through the ages. Recent advancements have focused on isolating and screening bioactive compounds and their respective medicinal properties, and we also discuss chemical property space and clinical trials, where compounds with potential pharmacological effects, such as cytotoxicity, anticancer, and antiparasitic properties, are highlighted. The data have shown that about 43% of the compounds investigated have cytotoxic effects, and around 8% have anti-trypanosome activity. We discussed the role of different marine cyanobacteria groups in fixing nitrogen percentages on Earth and their outcomes in fish productivity by entering food webs and enhancing productivity in different agricultural and ecological fields. The role of marine cyanobacteria in the carbon cycle and their outcomes in improving the efficiency of photosynthetic CO2 fixation in the chloroplasts of crop plants, thus enhancing the crop plant's yield, was highlighted. Ultimately, climate changes have a significant impact on marine cyanobacteria where the temperature rises, and CO2 improves the cyanobacterial nitrogen fixation.}, }
@article {pmid37623388, year = {2023}, author = {Eickermann, M and Junk, J and Rapisarda, C}, title = {Climate Change and Insects.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {37623388}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {CHAPEL//Minist&#xe8;re de l'Environnement, du Climat et du D&#xe9;veloppement du Luxembourg/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) poses one of the foremost challenges for humanity in the 21st century [...].}, }
@article {pmid37622733, year = {2023}, author = {Yactayo-Chang, JP and Block, AK}, title = {The impact of climate change on maize chemical defenses.}, journal = {The Biochemical journal}, volume = {480}, number = {16}, pages = {1285-1298}, doi = {10.1042/BCJ20220444}, pmid = {37622733}, issn = {1470-8728}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Zea mays ; Carbon Dioxide ; Crops, Agricultural ; Flavonoids ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly affecting agriculture, both at the levels of crops themselves, and by altering the distribution and damage caused by insect or microbial pests. As global food security depends on the reliable production of major crops such as maize (Zea mays), it is vital that appropriate steps are taken to mitigate these negative impacts. To do this a clear understanding of what the impacts are and how they occur is needed. This review focuses on the impact of climate change on the production and effectiveness of maize chemical defenses, including volatile organic compounds, terpenoid phytoalexins, benzoxazinoids, phenolics, and flavonoids. Drought, flooding, heat stress, and elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, all impact the production of maize chemical defenses, in a compound and tissue-specific manner. Furthermore, changes in stomatal conductance and altered soil conditions caused by climate change can impact environmental dispersal and effectiveness certain chemicals. This can alter both defensive barrier formation and multitrophic interactions. The production of defense chemicals is controlled by stress signaling networks. The use of similar networks to co-ordinate the response to abiotic and biotic stress can lead to complex integration of these networks in response to the combinatorial stresses that are likely to occur in a changing climate. The impact of multiple stressors on maize chemical defenses can therefore be different from the sum of the responses to individual stressors and challenging to predict. Much work remains to effectively leverage these protective chemicals in climate-resilient maize.}, }
@article {pmid37622262, year = {2023}, author = {Paoletti, G and Costanzo, G and Eigenmann, P and Kalayci, &#xd6;}, title = {Editorial comment on "Environmental influences on childhood asthma: Climate change".}, journal = {Pediatric allergy and immunology : official publication of the European Society of Pediatric Allergy and Immunology}, volume = {34}, number = {8}, pages = {e14011}, doi = {10.1111/pai.14011}, pmid = {37622262}, issn = {1399-3038}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Asthma/epidemiology/etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid37622140, year = {2023}, author = {Perez, VW and Swiatek, W and , }, title = {The Perilous Intersection of Housing Precarity and Climate Change in Delaware.}, journal = {Delaware journal of public health}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {60-61}, pmid = {37622140}, issn = {2639-6378}, }
@article {pmid37619777, year = {2023}, author = {Ozdemir, C and Kucuksezer, UC and Ogulur, I and Pat, Y and Yazici, D and Agache, I and Jutel, M and Nadeau, KC and Akdis, M and Akdis, CA}, title = {How does global warming contribute to disorders originating from an impaired epithelial barrier?.}, journal = {Annals of allergy, asthma &amp; immunology : official publication of the American College of Allergy, Asthma, &amp; Immunology}, volume = {131}, number = {6}, pages = {703-712}, doi = {10.1016/j.anai.2023.08.010}, pmid = {37619777}, issn = {1534-4436}, mesh = {Humans ; *Global Warming ; *Hypersensitivity ; Epithelium ; Inflammation ; Epithelial Cells ; }, abstract = {The epithelial barrier represents the point of contact between the host and the external environment. It is the first line of defense against external insults in the skin and in the gastrointestinal and upper and lower respiratory tracts. The steep increase in chronic disorders in recent decades, including allergies and autoimmune disorders, has prompted studies to investigate the immune mechanisms of their underlying pathogeneses, all of which point to a thought-provoking shared finding: disrupted epithelial barriers. Climate change with global warming has increased the frequency of unpredictable extreme weather events, such as wildfires, droughts, floods, and aberrant and longer pollination seasons, among many others. These increasingly frequent natural disasters can synergistically damage the epithelial barrier integrity in the presence of environmental pollution. A disrupted epithelial barrier induces proinflammatory activation of epithelial cells and alarmin production, namely, epithelitis. The "opened" epithelial barrier facilitates the entry of the external exposome into and underneath the epithelium, triggering an expulsion response driven by inflammatory cells in the area and chronic inflammation. These changes are associated with microbial dysbiosis with colonizing opportunistic pathogens and decreased commensals. These cellular and molecular events are key mechanisms in the pathogenesis of numerous chronic inflammatory disorders. This review summarizes the impact of global warming on epithelial barrier functions in the context of allergic diseases. Further studies in the impact of climate change on the dysfunction of the epithelial barriers are warranted to improve our understanding of epithelial barrier-related diseases and raise awareness of the environmental insults that pose a threat to our health.}, }
@article {pmid37619666, year = {2023}, author = {Aragon-Traverso, JH and Piñeiro, M and Olivares, JPS and Sanabria, EA}, title = {Temporal variation of thermal sensitivity to global warming: Acclimatization in the guitarist beetle, Megelenophorus americanus (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) from the Monte Desert.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {285}, number = {}, pages = {111505}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2023.111505}, pmid = {37619666}, issn = {1531-4332}, mesh = {Animals ; *Coleoptera ; Global Warming ; Climate Change ; Climate ; *Thermotolerance ; }, abstract = {Global warming is a major threat to biodiversity, the increase in mean temperature plus the higher rate and intensity of heat waves can severely affect organisms by exposing them to temperatures beyond their tolerance limits. Desert ectotherms are particularly vulnerable due to their dependence on environmental temperatures in an extreme habitat. Thermal tolerance changes depending on environmental conditions, studying these fluctuations provides a better understanding of species susceptibility to global warming. Tenebrionids are successful desert-inhabiting ectotherm taxa because of a series of adaptations for heat tolerance and water loss. We studied the seasonal variation (acclimatization) of thermal tolerance in Megelenophorus americanus, a widely distributed species in the Monte Desert (Argentina). To do this, we measured environmental and operative temperatures: body temperature (Tb), soil temperature (Ts), air temperature (Ta), environmental temperature (Te) and maximum temperature (Tmax), and tolerance proxies volunteer thermal maximum (VTmax), Fluid release (FR) and critical thermal maximum (CTmax) in a population of M. americanus from San Juan province, Argentina from October to March (full activity season). We found that Ts and Ta are accurate predictors of Tb, suggesting thermoconformism. All tolerance proxies showed differences among months, suggesting a natural acclimatization process in situ. Insects were found operating beyond VTmax (thermal stress) but they were far from reaching CTmax under natural conditions. Organisms present different degrees of tolerance plasticity that should be considered when predicting potential impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37616383, year = {2023}, author = {de Oliveira, T and Tegally, H}, title = {Will climate change amplify epidemics and give rise to pandemics?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {381}, number = {6660}, pages = {eadk4500}, doi = {10.1126/science.adk4500}, pmid = {37616383}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Floods ; Hot Temperature ; *Pandemics ; *Endemic Diseases ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {While the world recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, another crisis continues to spiral at a much faster speed than was expected. Climate change is dominating our lives and causing a high level of distress. Countries all over the world are struggling to survive the damage caused by extreme events. They are trying to control wildfires, rebuild roads and houses damaged by floods, and learn to survive in a hotter and more dangerous world. However, there is also a new threat that is being overlooked-the interaction between climate change and infectious diseases. A comprehensive meta-analysis revealed that climate change could aggravate more than 50% of known human pathogens. Unfortunately, this is happening now.}, }
@article {pmid37616370, year = {2023}, author = {West, TAP and Wunder, S and Sills, EO and Börner, J and Rifai, SW and Neidermeier, AN and Frey, GP and Kontoleon, A}, title = {Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {381}, number = {6660}, pages = {873-877}, doi = {10.1126/science.ade3535}, pmid = {37616370}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forests ; }, abstract = {Carbon offsets from voluntary avoided-deforestation projects are generated on the basis of performance in relation to ex ante deforestation baselines. We examined the effects of 26 such project sites in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We found that most projects have not significantly reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. This reflects differences between the project ex ante baselines and ex post counterfactuals according to observed deforestation in control areas. Methodologies used to construct deforestation baselines for carbon offset interventions need urgent revisions to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the projects, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.}, }
@article {pmid37615919, year = {2023}, author = {Youssef, AB and Dahmani, M and Mabrouki, M}, title = {The impact of environmentally related taxes and productive capacities on climate change: Insights from european economic area countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {44}, pages = {99900-99912}, pmid = {37615919}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Economic Development ; Taxes ; }, abstract = {In a world increasingly threatened by climate change and its associated risks, there's an urgent need to actively seek solutions for environmental protection and sustainable economic development. Central to this effort is understanding the role of environmental taxes and productive capacities in shaping environmental outcomes. Focusing on countries within the European Economic Area (EEA), this research uses advanced second-generation econometric techniques to examine this relationship. The use of cross-sectional autoregressive distributive lag (CS-ARDL) and dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) models allows for a robust examination of panel data and provides reliable results. The results reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship, or Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), between GDP growth and environmental degradation in the EEA economies. Furthermore, while our data reveal a significant negative correlation between environmental taxes and CO2 emissions, we find that productive capacities have a more significant impact on reducing these emissions. These findings call for further research into the effectiveness of policies to support productive capacities in achieving environmental protection goals in the EEA.}, }
@article {pmid37615247, year = {2023}, author = {Aleuy, OA and Peacock, SJ and Molnár, PK and Ruckstuhl, KE and Kutz, SJ}, title = {Local thermal adaptation and local temperature regimes drive the performance of a parasitic helminth under climate change: The case of Marshallagia marshalli from wild ungulates.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {22}, pages = {6217-6233}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16918}, pmid = {37615247}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Alberta Conservation Association, ACA Grants in Biodiversity Program/ ; //Killam Trusts, Izaak Walton Killam Memorial Pre-Doctoral Scholarship/ ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Banting Fellowship/ ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, NSERC Discovery/ ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, NSERC Postdoctoral fellowship/ ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, NSERC Research Tools and Instruments/ ; }, abstract = {Across a species' range, populations are exposed to their local thermal environments, which on an evolutionary scale, may cause adaptative differences among populations. Helminths often have broad geographic ranges and temperature-sensitive life stages but little is known about whether and how local thermal adaptation can influence their response to climate change. We studied the thermal responses of the free-living stages of Marshallagia marshalli, a parasitic nematode of wild ungulates, along a latitudinal gradient. We first determine its distribution in wild sheep species in North America. Then we cultured M. marshalli eggs from different locations at temperatures from 5 to 38°C. We fit performance curves based on the metabolic theory of ecology to determine whether development and mortality showed evidence of local thermal adaptation. We used parameter estimates in life-cycle-based host-parasite models to understand how local thermal responses may influence parasite performance under general and location-specific climate-change projections. We found that M. marshalli has a wide latitudinal and host range, infecting wild sheep species from New Mexico to Yukon. Increases in mortality and development time at higher temperatures were most evident for isolates from northern locations. Accounting for location-specific parasite parameters primarily influenced the magnitude of climate change parasite performance, while accounting for location-specific climates primarily influenced the phenology of parasite performance. Despite differences in development and mortality among M. marshalli populations, when using site-specific climate change projections, there was a similar magnitude of impact on the relative performance of M. marshalli among populations. Climate change is predicted to decrease the expected lifetime reproductive output of M. marshalli in all populations while delaying its seasonal peak by approximately 1 month. Our research suggests that accurate projections of the impacts of climate change on broadly distributed species need to consider local adaptations of organisms together with local temperature profiles and climate projections.}, }
@article {pmid37614457, year = {2023}, author = {Müller, C and Ouédraogo, WA and Schwarz, M and Barteit, S and Sauerborn, R}, title = {The effects of climate change-induced flooding on harvest failure in Burkina Faso: case study.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1166913}, pmid = {37614457}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; *Floods ; Burkina Faso ; *Climate Change ; Weather ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change leads to more frequent and severe extreme weather events including floods, heatwaves, heavy rainfalls, and droughts. In contrast to the majority of research on weather extremes in sub-Saharan Africa, which focus primarily on how a lack of rainfall causes droughts, this paper aims to elucidate the effect of flooding on harvest failure in rural Burkina Faso.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a case study in north-western Nouna, Burkina Faso, between August and December 2021 covering a study population of n = 180 participants. The study comprised four components: (i) interviews with farmers (n = 180) on whether any of their fields had been inundated and if so, on harvest loss on these fields; (ii) determining the feasibility of using Sentinel-2 satellite images to validate study participants reports of floods; (iii) characterizing short-term weather including frequency and duration, of extreme rainfall events within the study area, as well as comparing cumulative rainfall (long-term) over the past 50 years; and (v), estimating both the food energy and economic loss of harvest failure due to flooding.<br><br>RESULTS: 49% of interviewed farmers (n = 88) reported that floods had damaged at least one of their fields. Some fields (n = 13, 7%) had no harvest due to flooding, while some farmers (n = 14, 8%) had lost part of their harvest. Images from the Sentinel-2-Satellite indicated that reported and remotely observed flooding were consistent. According to time series of data from the local weather station, there has been an increase irregular rainfall distribution and at the same time of cumulative annual rainfall in Nouna. Furthermore, a first illustrative calculation allowed us to estimate the amount of energy lost when one hectare of a common crop is flooded.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This case study demonstrated that flood-related harvest failures leading to crop losses in sub-Saharan Africa, exemplified by Burkina Faso, are likely to be substantial. This study serves as a proof-of-principle for flooding effects on food security. This could provide more detail for agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies. Inundation-vulnerable fields need alternative and novel management practices, which may only be effectively implemented if agricultural institutions and national policy-making bodies receive evidence of flooding e.g., from remote sensing.}, }
@article {pmid37614358, year = {2023}, author = {Ravindra, K and Goyal, A and Mor, S}, title = {Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE): a global initiative to fight against climate change through community engagement and lifestyle modification.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {100238}, pmid = {37614358}, issn = {2772-3682}, }
@article {pmid37613125, year = {2023}, author = {Kaushik, B and Singh, K and Tiwari, DK and Singh, UK}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yield due to Pests and Crop Diseases: Future Projections.}, journal = {Microscopy and microanalysis : the official journal of Microscopy Society of America, Microbeam Analysis Society, Microscopical Society of Canada}, volume = {29}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {56-58}, doi = {10.1093/micmic/ozad067.022}, pmid = {37613125}, issn = {1435-8115}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid37612287, year = {2023}, author = {Gambhir, A and Mittal, S and Lamboll, RD and Grant, N and Bernie, D and Gohar, L and Hawkes, A and Köberle, A and Rogelj, J and Lowe, JA}, title = {Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {5117}, pmid = {37612287}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {101056306//European Commission (EC)/ ; 101056306//European Commission (EC)/ ; }, abstract = {Understanding how 1.5 °C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5 °C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment, is critical for planning resilient pathways. We use an integrated assessment model to explore potential pathway adjustments starting in 2025 and 2030, following the arrival of new information. The 1.5 °C target remains achievable in the model, in light of some adverse information, provided a broad portfolio of technologies and measures is still available. If multiple pieces of adverse information arrive simultaneously, average annual emissions reductions near 3 GtCO2/yr for the first five years following the pathway adjustment, compared to 2 GtCO2/yr in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic began. Moreover, in these scenarios of multiple simultaneous adverse information, by 2050 mitigation costs are 4-5 times as high as a no adverse information scenario, highlighting the criticality of developing a wide range of mitigation options, including energy demand reduction options.}, }
@article {pmid37607913, year = {2023}, author = {Lachs, L and Donner, SD and Mumby, PJ and Bythell, JC and Humanes, A and East, HK and Guest, JR}, title = {Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {4939}, pmid = {37607913}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Acclimatization ; Carbon ; Hypochlorous Acid ; Sodium Compounds ; }, abstract = {Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in the thermal tolerance of coral assemblages at a rate of 0.1 °C/decade for a remote Pacific coral reef system. This led to less severe bleaching impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts in community structure. Using future climate projections, we show that if thermal tolerance continues to rise over the coming century at the most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions in bleaching trajectories are possible. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios, yet can only be delayed under high emissions scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate a potential ecological resilience to climate change, but still highlight the need for reducing carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement commitments to preserve coral reefs.}, }
@article {pmid37607661, year = {2023}, author = {Aurivillius, M and Bednarczyk, A and Kokot, M and Madriaga, J and Mei, J and Collison, K and Surujbally, R and Archbell, J and Joshi, V and Gillen, M}, title = {Relative bioavailability of budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate triple therapy delivered using next generation propellants with low global warming potential.}, journal = {Pulmonary pharmacology &amp; therapeutics}, volume = {83}, number = {}, pages = {102245}, doi = {10.1016/j.pupt.2023.102245}, pmid = {37607661}, issn = {1522-9629}, mesh = {Humans ; Male ; Administration, Inhalation ; Biological Availability ; *Bronchodilator Agents ; Budesonide/pharmacokinetics ; Cross-Over Studies ; Double-Blind Method ; Drug Combinations ; Formoterol Fumarate ; Global Warming ; *Glycopyrrolate ; Metered Dose Inhalers ; Single-Blind Method ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The climate crisis poses an immediate threat to human health and well-being, demanding urgent adaptions across sectors, including healthcare. The development of pressurized metered dose inhalers (MDIs) with greater sensitivity to the climate emergency using novel propellants with lower global warming potentials (GWPs), but comparable pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters to currently marketed MDIs, is a vital step toward reducing the impact of healthcare for respiratory disorders on climate change. This study evaluated the relative bioavailabilities of the individual components of a fixed-dose combination of budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF) 160/9/4.8 μg per actuation between three different propellant formulations.<br><br>METHODS: Healthy male participants (aged 18-60 years) were randomized into a single-blind, three-period, single-dose, single-center, crossover study (NCT04600505). The PK and safety and tolerability profiles of BGF MDI formulated with two novel propellants with low GWP (hydrofluoroolefin-1234ze [HFO]; hydrofluorocarbon-152a [HFC]) were compared with BGF MDI formulated with the propellant used in the currently marketed reference product (hydrofluoroalkane-134a [HFA]). The study included a screening period, three treatment periods (with 3- to 7-day washout periods between each dose), and a follow-up. The primary PK parameters assessed were maximum observed plasma concentration (Cmax), area under the plasma concentration curve (AUC) from time zero extrapolated to infinity (AUCinf), and AUC from time zero to the time of the last quantifiable analyte concentration (AUClast). The study was not powered to statistically demonstrate bioequivalence.<br><br>RESULTS: Forty-seven participants completed the study, and 24 participants were evaluable for PK assessments. Systemic exposure, based on geometric mean ratios (90% confidence interval), to each BGF component from the test propellants delivered in a standard MDI was comparable with the reference propellant for AUClast (HFO vs. HFA: budesonide, 107.30 [94.53, 121.90]; glycopyrrolate, 106.10 [86.18, 130.60]; formoterol, 98.13 [86.44, 111.40]; HFC vs. HFA: budesonide, 98.80 [84.59, 115.40]; glycopyrrolate, 99.71 [80.84, 123.00]; formoterol, 107.00 [88.82, 128.90]); AUCinf (where evaluable) and Cmax followed the same trend. There were no serious adverse events or adverse events leading to treatment discontinuation. No new safety signals were observed.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Systemic BGF component exposure was similar for both test propellants (HFO and HFC) compared with the HFA reference propellant, with an acceptable safety profile in the studied population. Therefore, both novel low GWP propellants show strong potential as candidates for development of MDIs with greater sensitivity to the climate crisis, a vital step toward ameliorating the detrimental impact of healthcare on the environment. Further investigation in larger studies is warranted.}, }
@article {pmid37607481, year = {2023}, author = {Buonaiuto, DM}, title = {Climate change: Shifts in time between flowering and leaf-out are complex and consequential.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {33}, number = {16}, pages = {R860-R863}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2023.06.085}, pmid = {37607481}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Reproduction ; Plant Leaves ; Wood ; }, abstract = {A new study investigated how time intervals between flowering and leaf-out in woody plants are impacted by climate change. Climate change has shifted the timing of both stages, but its impact on the interval between them is complex and variable.}, }
@article {pmid37606847, year = {2023}, author = {Jing, H and Xiong, X and Jiang, F and Pu, X and Ma, W and Li, D and Liu, Z and Wang, Z}, title = {Climate change filtered out resource-acquisitive plants in a temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia, China.}, journal = {Science China. Life sciences}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37606847}, issn = {1869-1889}, abstract = {Global climate change has led to the decline of species and functional diversity in ecosystems, changing community composition and ecosystem functions. However, we still know little about how species with different resource-use strategies (different types of resource usage and plant growth of plants as indicated by the spectrum of plant economic traits, including acquisitive resource-use strategy and conservative resource-use strategy) would change in response to climate change, and how the changes in the diversity of species with different resource-use strategies may influence community-level productivity. Here, using long-term (1982-2017) observatory data in a temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia, we investigated how climate change had affected the species richness (SR) and functional richness (FRic) for the whole community and for species with different resource-use strategies. Specifically, based on data for four traits representing leaf economics spectrum (leaf carbon concentration, leaf nitrogen concentration, leaf phosphorus concentration, and specific leaf area), we divided 81 plant species appearing in the grassland community into three plant functional types representing resource-acquisitive, medium, and resource-conservative species. We then analyzed the changes in community-level productivity in response to the decline of SR and FRic at the community level and for different resource-use strategies. We found that community-level SR and FRic decreased with drying climate, which was largely driven by the decline of diversity for resource-acquisitive species. However, community-level productivity remained stable because resource-conservative species dominating this grassland were barely affected by climate change. Our study revealed distinctive responses of species with different resource-use strategies to climate change and provided a new approach based on species functional traits for predicting the magnitude and direction of climate change effects on ecosystem functions.}, }
@article {pmid37605853, year = {2023}, author = {Rabaiotti, D and Coulson, T and Woodroffe, R}, title = {Climate change is predicted to cause population collapse in a cooperative breeder.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {21}, pages = {6002-6017}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16890}, pmid = {37605853}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NE/L002485/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; NE/T001348/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; *Endangered Species ; }, abstract = {It has been suggested that animals may have evolved cooperative breeding strategies in response to extreme climatic conditions. Climate change, however, may push species beyond their ability to cope with extreme climates, and reduce the group sizes in cooperatively breeding species to a point where populations are no longer viable. Predicting the impact of future climates on these species is challenging as modelling the impact of climate change on their population dynamics requires information on both group- and individual-level responses to climatic conditions. Using a single-sex individual-based model incorporating demographic responses to ambient temperature in an endangered species, the African wild dog Lycaon pictus, we show that there is a threshold temperature above which populations of the species are predicted to collapse. For simulated populations with carrying capacities equivalent to the median size of real-world populations (nine packs), extinction risk increases once temperatures exceed those predicted in the best-case climate warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6). The threshold is higher (between RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) for larger simulated populations (30 packs), but 84% of real-world populations number <30 packs. Simulated populations collapsed because, at high ambient temperatures, juvenile survival was so low that packs were no longer recruiting enough individuals to persist, leading them to die out. This work highlights the importance of social dynamics in determining impacts of climatic variables on social species, and the critical role that recruitment can play in driving population-level impacts of climate change. Population models parameterised on long-term data are essential for predicting future population viability under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37603824, year = {2023}, author = {Kohli, M}, title = {Cancer Prescriptions and Impact on Climate Change: Real or Imagined?.}, journal = {JCO oncology practice}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {697-699}, doi = {10.1200/OP.23.00424}, pmid = {37603824}, issn = {2688-1535}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Neoplasms/complications/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid37603760, year = {2023}, author = {Sasaki, T and Collins, SL and Rudgers, JA and Batdelger, G and Baasandai, E and Kinugasa, T}, title = {Dryland sensitivity to climate change and variability using nonlinear dynamics.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {35}, pages = {e2305050120}, pmid = {37603760}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {19KK0393//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; DEB # 1655499//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; DEB-1856383//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 30F2002//Tottori University/ ; 02F2002//Tottori University/ ; }, abstract = {Primary productivity response to climatic drivers varies temporally, indicating state-dependent interactions between climate and productivity. Previous studies primarily employed equation-based approaches to clarify this relationship, ignoring the state-dependent nature of ecological dynamics. Here, using 40 y of climate and productivity data from 48 grassland sites across Mongolia, we applied an equation-free, nonlinear time-series analysis to reveal sensitivity patterns of productivity to climate change and variability and clarify underlying mechanisms. We showed that productivity responded positively to annual precipitation in mesic regions but negatively in arid regions, with the opposite pattern observed for annual mean temperature. Furthermore, productivity responded negatively to decreasing annual aridity that integrated precipitation and temperature across Mongolia. Productivity responded negatively to interannual variability in precipitation and aridity in mesic regions but positively in arid regions. Overall, interannual temperature variability enhanced productivity. These response patterns are largely unrecognized; however, two mechanisms are inferable. First, time-delayed climate effects modify annual productivity responses to annual climate conditions. Notably, our results suggest that the sensitivity of annual productivity to increasing annual precipitation and decreasing annual aridity can even be negative when the negative time-delayed effects of annual precipitation and aridity on productivity prevail across time. Second, the proportion of plant species resistant to water and temperature stresses at a site determines the sensitivity of productivity to climate variability. Thus, we highlight the importance of nonlinear, state-dependent sensitivity of productivity to climate change and variability, accurately forecasting potential biosphere feedback to the climate system.}, }
@article {pmid37603135, year = {2023}, author = {Peters, A and Herr, C and Bolte, G and Heutelbeck, A and Hornberg, C and Kraus, T and Lakes, T and Matzarakis, A and Novak, D and Reifegerste, D and Traidl-Hoffmann, C and Zeeb, H and Schneider, A and Hoffmann, B}, title = {[Health protection and climate change require ambitious limit values for air pollutants in Europe : Opinion on the revision of the Directive on Air Quality and Clean Air for Europe of the Environmental Public Health commission of the Robert Koch Institute and the Federal Environment Agency].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {66}, number = {9}, pages = {1030-1034}, pmid = {37603135}, issn = {1437-1588}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Climate Change ; Nitrogen Dioxide ; Public Health ; Germany ; Europe ; Particulate Matter ; *Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Based on scientific findings, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended stricter guideline values for air quality in 2021. Significant reductions in the annual mean values of particulate matter (particle size 2.5 µm or smaller, PM2.5) and long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) were put forward. The risk of mortality already increases above the WHO guideline values, as shown in studies investigating low concentrations of air pollutants. In Germany, the 2021 WHO guideline values for PM2.5 and NO2 were clearly exceeded in 2022.In this position paper we give the following recommendations for the European Air Quality Directive: (1) set binding limit values according to WHO 2021, (2) apply the limit values to the whole of Europe, (3) continue and expand the established country-based monitoring networks, (4) expand air quality measurements for ultrafine particles and soot particles, and (5) link air pollution control and climate protection measures.Stricter limits for air pollutants require societal and political changes in areas such as mobility, energy use and generation, and urban and spatial planning. Implementation according to WHO 2021 would lead to a net economic benefit of 38 billion euros per year.Ambitious limit values for air pollutants also have an impact on climate change mitigation and its health impacts. The Environmental Public Health commission concludes that more ambitious limit values are crucial to enable effective health protection in Germany and calls for air pollutant limit values in line with the 2021 WHO recommendations to become binding in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid37601458, year = {2023}, author = {Rosencranz, H and Ramkumar, J and Herzog, L and Lavey, W}, title = {Policy Advocacy Workshop Tools for Training Medical Students to Act on Climate Change.}, journal = {MedEdPORTAL : the journal of teaching and learning resources}, volume = {19}, number = {}, pages = {11337}, pmid = {37601458}, issn = {2374-8265}, mesh = {Humans ; *Students, Medical ; Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Health Personnel ; Policy ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Doctors are trusted voices for communities and can influence lawmakers on climate change. Effective climate policy advocacy requires awareness, knowledge, and skills not typically taught in medical schools. Such curriculum additions could help students describe reasons for physicians to engage in climate policy advocacy and compose advocacy presentations.<br><br>METHODS: To empower engagement in climate policies and develop advocacy skills, we deployed three 90-minute workshops at three institutions for first-, second-, and fourth-year students. The workshops included background on various climate policies of concern to health care professionals, advocacy guidance, scripts and factsheets from physicians' meetings illustrating advocacy opportunities for students and physicians, and active learning exercises. The exercises utilized advocacy templates and actual proposed actions on climate change. Students worked in small groups on advocacy presentations' content and format. Each group shared its work, and facilitators provided feedback.<br><br>RESULTS: Out of 102 participants, 29 completed a survey (28% response rate). Using a Likert scale and narratives, students reported significant improvements in readiness to advocate for legislation or policies to mitigate the health effects of climate change, awareness of advocacy opportunities, and capability to prepare advocacy documents.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Workshops on climate policy advocacy can equip medical students with important perspectives on their responsibilities and opportunities, as well as skills to be effective. The physician's voice is critical to promoting policies related to the health impacts of climate change. Targeted workshops with actual examples and exercises on climate advocacy are feasible and important additions to the curriculum.}, }
@article {pmid37601430, year = {2023}, author = {Bach, AJE and Palutikof, JP and Tonmoy, FN and Smallcombe, JW and Rutherford, S and Joarder, AR and Hossain, M and Jay, O}, title = {Retrofitting passive cooling strategies to combat heat stress in the face of climate change: A case study of a ready-made garment factory in Dhaka, Bangladesh.}, journal = {Energy and buildings}, volume = {286}, number = {}, pages = {112954}, pmid = {37601430}, issn = {0378-7788}, support = {216059/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The ready-made garment industry is critical to the Bangladesh economy. There is an urgent need to improve current working conditions and build capacity for heat mitigation as conditions worsen due to climate change. We modelled a typical, mid-sized, non-air-conditioned factory in Bangladesh and simulated how the indoor thermal environment is altered by four rooftop retrofits (1. extensive green roof, 2. rooftop shading, 3. white cool roof, 4. insulated white cool roof) on present-day and future decades under different climate scenarios. Simulations showed that all strategies reduce indoor air temperatures by around 2 °C on average and reduce the number of present-day annual work-hours during which wetbulb globe temperature exceeds the standardised limits for moderate work rates by up to 603 h - the equivalent of 75 (8 h) working days per year. By 2050 under a high-emissions scenario, indoor conditions with a rooftop intervention are comparable to present-day conditions. To reduce the growing need for carbon-intensive air-conditioning, sustainable heat mitigation strategies need to be incorporated into a wider range of solutions at the individual, building, and urban level. The results presented here have implications for factory planning and retrofit design, and may inform policies targeting worker health, well-being, and productivity.}, }
@article {pmid37600189, year = {2023}, author = {Asproudi, A and Bonello, F and Ragkousi, V and Gianotti, S and Petrozziello, M}, title = {Aroma precursors of Grignolino grapes (Vitis vinifera L.) and their modulation by vintage in a climate change scenario.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1179111}, pmid = {37600189}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Current climatic conditions may cause significant changes in grapevine phenology and maturity dynamics linked often with changes to ecoclimatic indicators. The influence exerted by different meteorological conditions during four consecutive years on the aromatic potential of Grignolino grapes was investigated for the first time. The samples were collected from three vineyards characterized by different microclimatic conditions mainly related to the vineyard exposure and by a different age of the plants. Important differences as far as temperature and rainfall patterns are concerned during ripening were observed among the 4 years. Grape responses to abiotic stress, with particular emphasis on aromatic precursors, were evaluated using gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. The results highlighted significant differences among the vintages for each vineyard in terms of the berry weight and the aromatic precursor concentration. For the grapes of the younger-vine vineyard, the content of aroma compounds showed a different variability among the vintages if compared to the old-vine vineyards. Optimal conditions in terms of temperature and rainfall during the green phase followed by a warm and dry post-veraison period until harvest favored all classes of compounds especially terpenoids mainly in the grapes of the old vines. High-temperature (>30°C) and low-rainfall pattern before veraison led to high benzenoid contents and increased differences among vineyards such as berry weight, whereas cooler conditions favored the terpenoid levels in grapes from southeast-oriented vineyards. In a hilly environment, lack of rainfall and high temperature that lately characterize the second part of berry development seem to favor the grape quality of Grignolino, a cultivar of medium-late ripening, by limiting the differences on bunch ripening, allowing a greater accumulation of secondary metabolites but maintaining at the same time an optimum balance sugar/acidity.}, }
@article {pmid37598966, year = {2023}, author = {Chowdhury, P and Lakku, NKG and Lincoln, S and Seelam, JK and Behera, MR}, title = {Climate change and coastal morphodynamics: Interactions on regional scales.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {899}, number = {}, pages = {166432}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166432}, pmid = {37598966}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and its impacts, combined with unchecked human activities, intensify pressures on coastal environments, resulting in modification of the coastal morphodynamics. Coastal zones are intricate and constantly changing areas, making the monitoring and interpretation of data a challenging task, especially in remote beaches and regions with limited historical data. Traditionally, remote sensing and numerical methods have played a vital role in analysing earth observation data and supporting the monitoring and modelling of complex coastal ecosystems. However, the emergence of artificial intelligence-based techniques has shown promising results, offering the additional advantage of filling data gaps, predicting data in data-scarce regions, and analysing multidimensional datasets collected over extended periods of time and larger spatial scales. The main objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive review of the existing literature, discussing both traditional methods and various emerging artificial intelligence-based approaches used in studying the coastal dynamics, shoreline change analysis, and coastal monitoring. Ultimately, the study proposes a climate resilience framework to enhance coastal zone management practices and policies, fostering resilience among coastal communities. The outcome of this study aligns with and supports particularly SDG 13 of the UN (Climate Action) and advances it by identifying relevant methods in coastal erosion studies and proposing integrated management plans informed by real-time data collection and analysis/modelling using physics-based models.}, }
@article {pmid37597569, year = {2023}, author = {Novais, MH and Penha, AM and Catarino, A and Martins, I and Fialho, S and Lima, A and Morais, M and Palma, P}, title = {The usefulness of ecotoxicological tools to improve the assessment of water bodies in a climate change reality.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {901}, number = {}, pages = {166392}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166392}, pmid = {37597569}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study aimed to analyse the added value of using ecotoxicological tools to complement and improve the assessment of natural water bodies status, in situations of climate change, with a higher frequency of extreme events as floods or droughts. Four water bodies of streams in the Guadiana Basin (Álamos, Amieira, Lucefécit, Zebro) were studied in 2017 and 2018 and classified based on the Water Framework Directive (WFD) parameters: Biological Quality Element - Phytobenthos (diatoms), General chemical and physicochemical elements, Specific pollutants, and Priority Substances. Complementarily, bioassays (including lethal and sublethal parameters) were carried out with organisms of different trophic levels: (i) the bacteria Aliivibrio fischeri; (ii) the microalgae Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata; (iii) the crustaceans Daphnia magna, Thamnocephalus platyurus and Heterocypris incongruens. A classification system with 5 scores was developed, permitting to classify water bodies from non-toxic (EC50 > 100 %; growth and feeding rate > 80 %; blue) to highly toxic (EC50 < 10 %; growth and feeding rate < 10 %; red). The comparison between the classification based on the WFD parameters and on ecotoxicological endpoints showed similar results for 71 % of the samples, and significant positive Pearson correlations were detected between the diatom-based Specific Polluosensitivity Index (SPI) and EC50V.fisheri, the algae growth rate and Shannon diversity index. These results indicate that when the biological quality elements cannot be used (namely under drought or flooding conditions) the application of ecotoxicological bioassays may be a good alternative. Further, when ecotoxicological parameters were included, an increase of worse classifications (Bad and Poor) was observed, revealing an improvement in the sensitivity of the classification, mainly in presence of specific and priority substances. So, the ecotoxicological analysis appears to provide useful information regarding the potential presence of both known and unknown contaminants at concentrations that cause biological effects (even within the WFD limits), in agreement with several authors that have already suggested its use in biomonitoring.}, }
@article {pmid37597551, year = {2023}, author = {Vázquez, R and Parras-Berrocal, IM and Koseki, S and Cabos, W and Sein, DV and Izquierdo, A}, title = {Seasonality of coastal upwelling trends in the Mauritania-Senegalese region under RCP8.5 climate change scenario.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {898}, number = {}, pages = {166391}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166391}, pmid = {37597551}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Mauritania-Senegalese upwelling region (MSUR), the southernmost region of the Canary current upwelling system, is well-known for its coastal productivity and the key role it plays in enriching the oligotrophic open ocean through the offshore transport of the upwelled coastal waters. The great ecological and socio-economic importance makes it necessary to evaluate the impact of climate change on this region. Hence, our main objective is to examine the climate change signal over the MSUR with a high resolution regional climate system model (RCSM) forced by the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR under RCP8.5 scenario. This RCSM has a regional atmosphere model (REMO) coupled to a global ocean model (MPIOM) with high-resolution in the MSUR, which allows us to evaluate the wind pattern, the ocean stratification, as well as the upwelling source water depth, while maintaining an ocean global domain. Under RCP8.5 scenario, our results show that the upwelling favourable winds of the northern MSUR are year-round intensified, while the southern MSUR presents a strengthening in winter and a weakening in March-April. Along with changes in the wind pattern, we found increased ocean stratification in the spring months. In those months southern MSUR presents a shallowing of the upwelling source water depth associated to changes in both mechanisms. However, in winter the whole MSUR shows a deepening of the upwelling source water depth due to the intensification of the upwelling favourable winds, with the increased ocean stratification playing a secondary role. Our results demonstrate the need to evaluate the future evolution of coastal upwelling systems taking into account their latitudinal and seasonal variability and the joint contribution of both mechanisms.}, }
@article {pmid37597524, year = {2023}, author = {Haines, A and Lam, HCY}, title = {El Niño and health in an era of unprecedented climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {402}, number = {10415}, pages = {1811-1813}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01664-1}, pmid = {37597524}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; }, }
@article {pmid37595038, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, OR and Ward, EJ and Anderson, SC and Andrews, KS and Barnett, LAK and Brodie, S and Carroll, G and Fiechter, J and Haltuch, MA and Harvey, CJ and Hazen, EL and Hernvann, PY and Jacox, M and Kaplan, IC and Matson, S and Norman, K and Pozo Buil, M and Selden, RL and Shelton, A and Samhouri, JF}, title = {Species redistribution creates unequal outcomes for multispecies fisheries under projected climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {33}, pages = {eadg5468}, pmid = {37595038}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; Acclimatization ; Food ; Oxygen ; }, abstract = {Climate change drives species distribution shifts, affecting the availability of resources people rely upon for food and livelihoods. These impacts are complex, manifest at local scales, and have diverse effects across multiple species. However, for wild capture fisheries, current understanding is dominated by predictions for individual species at coarse spatial scales. We show that species-specific responses to localized environmental changes will alter the collection of co-occurring species within established fishing footprints along the U.S. West Coast. We demonstrate that availability of the most economically valuable, primary target species is highly likely to decline coastwide in response to warming and reduced oxygen concentrations, while availability of the most abundant, secondary target species will potentially increase. A spatial reshuffling of primary and secondary target species suggests regionally heterogeneous opportunities for fishers to adapt by changing where or what they fish. Developing foresight into the collective responses of species at local scales will enable more effective and tangible adaptation pathways for fishing communities.}, }
@article {pmid37594319, year = {2023}, author = {Rousseau, C}, title = {Climate change and sexual and reproductive health: what implications for future research?.}, journal = {Sexual and reproductive health matters}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {2232196}, pmid = {37594319}, issn = {2641-0397}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Reproductive Health ; Reproduction ; }, }
@article {pmid37592197, year = {2024}, author = {Felton, A and Belyazid, S and Eggers, J and Nordström, EM and Öhman, K}, title = {Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for production forests: Trade-offs, synergies, and uncertainties in biodiversity and ecosystem services delivery in Northern Europe.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, pages = {1-16}, pmid = {37592197}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {2021-02132//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; 2019-02007//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forests ; Biodiversity ; Trees ; Europe ; Forestry ; Introduced Species ; }, abstract = {Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies (CCAMS) are changes to the management of production forests motivated by the need to mitigate climate change, or adapt production forests to climate change risks. Sweden is employing CCAMS with unclear implications for biodiversity and forest ecosystem services (ES). Here, we synthesized evidence from 51 published scientific reviews, to evaluate the potential implications for biodiversity and a range of provisioning, regulating, and cultural ES, from the adoption of CCAMS relative to standard forestry practice. The CCAMS assessed were the adoption of (i) mixed-species stands, (ii) continuous cover forestry, (iii) altered rotation lengths, (iv) conversion to introduced tree species, (v) logging residue extraction, (vi) stand fertilization, and (vii) altered ditching/draining practices. We highlight the complexity of biodiversity and ES outcomes, identify knowledge gaps, and emphasize the importance of evidence-based decision making and landscape-scale planning when navigating choices involving the widespread adoption of CCAMS.}, }
@article {pmid37592096, year = {2023}, author = {Singh, HV and Joshi, N and Suryavanshi, S}, title = {Projected climate extremes over agro-climatic zones of Ganga River Basin under 1.5, 2, and 3° global warming levels.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {9}, pages = {1062}, pmid = {37592096}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Rivers ; Environmental Monitoring ; Climate Change ; Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {Recurring floods, droughts, heatwaves, and other hydro-meteorological extreme events are likely to be increased under the climate change scenarios. The increased risk of these extreme events might have more exposure to the population; thus, it is important to discuss such extreme events and their projected behavior under a changing climate scenario. In the present study, we have computed the extreme precipitation and temperature indices over the 10 agro-climatic zones falling under the Ganga River Basin (GRB)utilizing a high-resolution daily gridded temperature and precipitation multi-model ensembled CMIP6 dataset (0.25° × 0.25°) under global warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C. We found that the annual daily minimum temperature (TNN) showed a higher rise of about 67% than the maximum temperature (TXX) of 48% in GRB. The basin also experiences a greater increase in the frequency of warm nights (TN90P) of about 67.71% compared to warm days (TX90P) of 29.1% for the 3 °C global warming level. Along with extreme indices, the population exposed due to the impact of the extreme maximum temperature has also been analyzed for progressive warming levels. Population exposure to extreme temperature event (TXX) has been analyzed with 20-year return period using GEV distribution method. The study concludes that the exposed population to extreme temperature event experienced an increase from 46.99 to 52.16% for the whole Ganga Basin. Consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) both show a significant increasing trend, but CWD has a significant increase in the majority of the zones, while CDD shows a significant decreasing trend for some of the zones for three warming levels periods. Extreme climate indices help to understand the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, droughts, and heatwaves to develop early warning systems and adaptation strategies to mitigate such events.}, }
@article {pmid37591374, year = {2023}, author = {Tran, HM and Tsai, FJ and Lee, YL and Chang, JH and Chang, LT and Chang, TY and Chung, KF and Kuo, HP and Lee, KY and Chuang, KJ and Chuang, HC}, title = {The impact of air pollution on respiratory diseases in an era of climate change: A review of the current evidence.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {898}, number = {}, pages = {166340}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166340}, pmid = {37591374}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Aged ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases/epidemiology ; *Respiration Disorders ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change and air pollution on respiratory diseases present significant global health challenges. This review aims to investigate the effects of the interactions between these challenges focusing on respiratory diseases. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events amplifying air pollution levels and exacerbating respiratory diseases. Air pollution levels are projected to rise due to ongoing economic growth and population expansion in many areas worldwide, resulting in a greater burden of respiratory diseases. This is especially true among vulnerable populations like children, older adults, and those with pre-existing respiratory disorders. These challenges induce inflammation, create oxidative stress, and impair the immune system function of the lungs. Consequently, public health measures are required to mitigate the effects of climate change and air pollution on respiratory health. The review proposes that reducing greenhouse gas emissions contribute to slowing down climate change and lessening the severity of extreme weather events. Enhancing air quality through regulatory and technological innovations also helps reduce the morbidity of respiratory diseases. Moreover, policies and interventions aimed at improving healthcare access and social support can assist in decreasing the vulnerability of populations to the adverse health effects of air pollution and climate change. In conclusion, there is an urgent need for continuous research, establishment of policies, and public health efforts to tackle the complex and multi-dimensional challenges of climate change, air pollution, and respiratory health. Practical and comprehensive interventions can protect respiratory health and enhance public health outcomes for all.}, }
@article {pmid37588982, year = {2023}, author = {Lee, J and Dessler, AE}, title = {Future Temperature-Related Deaths in the U.S.: The Impact of Climate Change, Demographics, and Adaptation.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {7}, number = {8}, pages = {e2023GH000799}, pmid = {37588982}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Mortality due to extreme temperatures is one of the most worrying impacts of climate change. In this analysis, we use historic mortality and temperature data from 106 cities in the United States to develop a model that predicts deaths attributable to temperature. With this model and projections of future temperature from climate models, we estimate temperature-related deaths in the United States due to climate change, changing demographics, and adaptation. We find that temperature-related deaths increase rapidly as the climate warms, but this is mainly due to an expanding and aging population. For global average warming below 3°C above pre-industrial levels, we find that climate change slightly reduces temperature-related mortality in the U.S. because the reduction of cold-related mortality exceeds the increase in heat-related deaths. Above 3°C warming, whether the increase in heat-related deaths exceeds the decrease in cold-related deaths depends on the level of adaptation. Southern U.S. cities are already well adapted to hot temperatures and the reduction of cold-related mortality drives overall lower mortality. Cities in the Northern U.S. are not well adapted to high temperatures, so the increase in heat-related mortality exceeds the reduction in cold-related mortality. Thus, while the total number of climate-related mortality may not change much, climate change will shift mortality in the U.S. to higher latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid37588803, year = {2023}, author = {Lyle, ZJ and VanBriesen, JM and Samaras, C}, title = {Drinking Water Utility-Level Understanding of Climate Change Effects to System Reliability.}, journal = {ACS ES&amp;T water}, volume = {3}, number = {8}, pages = {2395-2406}, pmid = {37588803}, issn = {2690-0637}, abstract = {Climate change hazards, including increased temperatures, drought, sea level rise, extreme precipitation, wildfires, and changes in freeze-thaw cycles, are expected to degrade drinking water utility system infrastructure and decrease the reliability of water provision. To assess how drinking water utility manager perceptions of these risks affect utility planning, 60 semistructured interviews were conducted with utilities of various sizes, source water supplies, and United States geographical regions. This study analyzes these interviews (1) to evaluate which climate hazards are of primary concern to drinking water managers, (2) to develop a mental model framework for assessing utility-level understanding of climate change risks to system reliability, and (3) to examine the status of current water utility adaptation planning. The results show that concern and awareness of climate hazard risks vary geographically and are grounded in historical exposure; some participants do not believe climate change will influence their system's overall reliability. When considering climate change risks, utility managers tend to focus on effects to water supply and infrastructure, as opposed to changes in operations and maintenance, water quality, or business functions. Most surveyed utilities do not have comprehensive climate adaptation plans despite federal and professional recommendations. The range of beliefs and actions concerning climate adaptation planning indicates that utilities need directed guidance, and policymakers should consider including climate hazards and projections as part of required utility risk and resilience assessments.}, }
@article {pmid37587396, year = {2023}, author = {Sun, Y and Yu, R and Cheng, TCE}, title = {Incentives for promoting climate change adaptation technologies in agriculture: an evolutionary game approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {43}, pages = {97025-97039}, pmid = {37587396}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Motivation ; *Climate Change ; Agriculture ; Technology ; Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {Climate change adaptation technologies (CCATs) have become increasingly important for farmers as they face the challenges of climate change and natural disasters. Despite this, many rural areas still rely on traditional agricultural techniques. To promote the adoption of CCATs in agriculture, it is necessary to explore the incentives and conditions for the effectiveness of the policy. We develop an evolutionary game model to analyze the behavior of local governments and farmers in promoting CCATs. Our findings indicate that, under certain conditions, the promotion of CCATs can achieve equilibrium. The incentive for farmers to adopt CCATs increases within a certain range when local governments provide risk subsidies and cost sharing. When subsidies are too high, however, local governments may choose not to promote CCATs, which reduces the incentives for farmers to adopt them. Publicity is also an important factor in promoting CCATs. Our study provides insight into the development of policies aimed at promoting CCATs in agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid37586521, year = {2023}, author = {Pham, HV and Dal Barco, MK and Cadau, M and Harris, R and Furlan, E and Torresan, S and Rubinetti, S and Zanchettin, D and Rubino, A and Kuznetsov, I and Barbariol, F and Benetazzo, A and Sclavo, M and Critto, A}, title = {Multi-model chain for climate change scenario analysis to support coastal erosion and water quality risk management for the Metropolitan city of Venice.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {904}, number = {}, pages = {166310}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166310}, pmid = {37586521}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, hazardous climate and weather events are increasing in frequency and severity, with wide-ranging impacts across ecosystems and landscapes, especially fragile and dynamic coastal zones. The presented multi-model chain approach combines ocean hydrodynamics, wave fields, and shoreline extraction models to build a Bayesian Network-based coastal risk assessment model for the future analysis of shoreline evolution and seawater quality (i.e., suspended particulate matter, diffuse attenuation of light). In particular, the model was designed around a baseline scenario exploiting historical shoreline and oceanographic data within the 2015-2017 timeframe. Shoreline erosion and water quality changes along the coastal area of the Metropolitan city of Venice were evaluated for 2021-2050, under the RCP8.5 future scenario. The results showed a destabilizing trend in both shoreline evolution and seawater quality under the selected climate change scenario. Specifically, after a stable period (2021-2030), the shoreline will be affected by periods of erosion (2031-2040) and then accretion (2041-2050), with a simultaneous decrease in seawater quality in terms of higher turbidity. The decadal analysis and sensitivity evaluation of the input variables demonstrates a strong influence of oceanographic variables on the assessed endpoints, highlighting how the factors are strongly connected. The integration of regional and global climate models with Machine Learning and satellite imagery within the proposed multi-model chain represents an innovative update on state-of-the-art techniques. The validated outputs represent a good promise for better understanding the varying impacts due to future climate change conditions (e.g., wind, wave, tide, and sea-level). Moreover, the flexibility of the approach allows for the quick integration of climate and multi-risk data as it becomes available, and would represent a useful tool for forward-looking coastal risk management for decision-makers.}, }
@article {pmid37585650, year = {2023}, author = {Liao, JR and Chiu, MC and Kuo, MH}, title = {Reassessing the presence of alien predatory mites and their prospects in the face of future climate change.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {79}, number = {12}, pages = {5186-5196}, doi = {10.1002/ps.7722}, pmid = {37585650}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {111-RA-BQ-01 (2-20)//Animal and Plant Health Inspection Agency, Taiwan/ ; JSPS KAKENHI n&#xb0;22P22380//YF2022 Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/ ; 2017TW2SA0004-Y//Chinese Academy of Sciences Taiwan Young Talent Programme/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Mites ; Introduced Species ; Climate Change ; Pest Control, Biological/methods ; Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses uncertainties in the effectiveness of classical biological control (CBC), and there is a lack of information on the establishment of natural enemy populations under present and future climatic conditions. The objective is to explore current traces of two alien predators (Neoseiulus californicus and Neoseiulus fallacis; introduced for the CBC program in the 1980s) and their future expansion under climate change in Taiwan.<br><br>RESULTS: The results indicated that N. californicus was present in alpine orchards (e.g., Lishan and Meifeng) but N. fallacis was not found. Under current climate condition, most areas in Taiwan were deemed highly suitable for N. californicus, but not for N. fallacis, which may explain the outcomes of the CBC program. With intensifying climate change, the ranges of both species are projected to contract to varying extents in Taiwan but expand in some countries.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings from this study can provide insights for evaluating and developing future CBC programs worldwide, and can help predict the implications of climate change on biological control efforts. &#xa9; 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid37585040, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 climate change conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {African journal of reproductive health}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {9-14}, doi = {10.29063/ajrh2022/v26i10.1}, pmid = {37585040}, issn = {1118-4841}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid37582806, year = {2023}, author = {Qiao, L and Zuo, Z and Zhang, R and Piao, S and Xiao, D and Zhang, K}, title = {Soil moisture-atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {4908}, pmid = {37582806}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {41822503//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 42175053//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {Soil moisture-atmosphere coupling (SA) amplifies greenhouse gas-driven global warming via changes in surface heat balance. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project projects an acceleration in SA-driven warming due to the 'warmer climate - drier soil' feedback, which continuously warms the globe and thereby exerts an acceleration effect on global warming. The projection shows that SA-driven warming exceeds 0.5 °C over extratropical landmasses by the end of the 21st Century. The likelihood of extreme high temperatures will additionally increase by about 10% over the entire globe (excluding Antarctica) and more than 30% over large parts of North America and Europe under the high-emission scenario. This demonstrates the high sensitivity of SA to climate change, in which SA can exceed the natural range of climate variability and play a non-linear warming component role on the globe.}, }
@article {pmid37580192, year = {2024}, author = {Nogueira, L and Florez, N}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Global Oncology.}, journal = {Hematology/oncology clinics of North America}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {105-121}, doi = {10.1016/j.hoc.2023.07.004}, pmid = {37580192}, issn = {1558-1977}, mesh = {Humans ; *Weather ; *Climate Change ; Public Health ; Medical Oncology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest threat to human health of our time, with significant implications for global cancer control efforts. The changing frequency and behavior of climate-driven extreme weather events results in more frequent and increasingly unanticipated disruptions in access to cancer care. Given the significant threat that climate change poses to cancer control efforts, oncology professionals should champion initiatives that help protect the health and safety of patients with cancer, such as enhancing emergency preparedness and response efforts and reducing emissions from our own professional activities, which has health cobenefits for the entire population.}, }
@article {pmid37579809, year = {2023}, author = {Yang, W and Sun, S and Wang, N and Fan, P and You, C and Wang, R and Zheng, P and Wang, H}, title = {Dynamics of the distribution of invasive alien plants (Asteraceae) in China under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {903}, number = {}, pages = {166260}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166260}, pmid = {37579809}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and biological invasions pose significant threats to the conservation of biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. With the rapid development of international trade and economy, China has become one of the countries most seriously affected by invasive alien plants (IAPs), especially the Asteraceae IAPs. For this end, we selected occurrence data of 31 Asteraceae IAPs and 33 predictor variables to explore the distribution pattern under current climate using MaxEnt model. Based on future climate data, the changes in distribution dynamics of Asteraceae IAPs were predicted under two time periods (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). The results indicated that the potential distribution of IAPs was mainly in the southeast of China under current climate. Climatic variables, including precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19), temperature annual range (BIO07) and annual precipitation (BIO12) were the main factors affecting the potential distribution. Besides, human footprint (HFP), population (POP) and soil moisture (SM) also had a great contribution for shaping the distribution pattern. With climate change, the potential distribution of IAPs would shift to the northwest and expand. It would also accelerate the expansion of most Asteraceae IAPs in China. The results of our study can help to understand the dynamics change of distributions of Asteraceae IAPs under climate change in advance so that early strategies can be developed to reduce the risk and influence of biological invasions.}, }
@article {pmid37579807, year = {2023}, author = {Wu, X and Wang, L and Cao, Q and Niu, Z and Dai, X}, title = {Regional climate change and possible causes over the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {903}, number = {}, pages = {166263}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166263}, pmid = {37579807}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Three Gorges Project, the largest hydroelectric project in the world, has attracted widespread attention regarding its impact on regional climate. However, existing studies on the climate effects of the Three Gorges Project construction are not sufficient due to limited data accumulation. In this study, we analyzed the annual and seasonal trend changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity over the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) based on long-term meteorological stations data, remote sensing data, and reanalysis products. Observation minus reanalysis method (OMR) was used to reveal possible impacts of land cover changes on climate changes. Major results indicated that the TGRA experienced an overall warming trend for both annual and seasonal variations, with greater rising trends in the upstream. Except for autumn, the relative humidity of most regions mainly showed significant downward trends, indicating an overall drying trend in the TGRA. There was insignificant change in total precipitation and precipitable water vapor, with the largest variation observed during the summer. Although there were small differences among these datasets, their results of climate changes showed good consistency overall. In addition, the results of OMR indicated that land cover changes mainly had a warming and drying effect on the middle and upper reaches, and a cooling and moistening effect on the lower reaches of the TGRA. This may be due to the impact of land cover changes on the surface energy balance, thus affected temperature and humidity. The study has important reference value for understanding the climate changes in the TGRA and the climate effects brought about by large-scale engineering construction.}, }
@article {pmid37579796, year = {2023}, author = {Hidalgo-Corrotea, C and Alaniz, AJ and Vergara, PM and Moreira-Arce, D and Carvajal, MA and Pacheco-Cancino, P and Espinosa, A}, title = {High vulnerability of coastal wetlands in Chile at multiple scales derived from climate change, urbanization, and exotic forest plantations.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {903}, number = {}, pages = {166130}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166130}, pmid = {37579796}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Coastal wetlands are considered one of the most vulnerable ecosystems worldwide; the ecosystem services they provide and the conservation of their biodiversity are threatened. Despite the high ecological and socioenvironmental value of coastal wetlands, regional and national vulnerability assessments are scarce. In this study we aimed to assess the vulnerability of coastal wetlands in Chile from 18°S to 42°S (n = 757) under a multiscale approach that included drivers associated with climate change and land cover change. We assessed multiple drivers of vulnerability at three spatial scales (10 m, 100 m, and 500 m) by analyzing multiple remote sensing data (16 variables) on land cover change, wildfires, climatic variables, vegetation functional properties, water surface and importance for biodiversity. We constructed a multifactorial vulnerability index based on the variables analyzed, which provided a map of coastal wetland vulnerability. Then we explored the main drivers associated with the vulnerability of each coastal wetland by performing a Principal Components Analysis with Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering, which allowed us to group coastal wetlands according to the drivers analyzed. We found that 42.6 ± 9.2 % of the coastal wetlands evaluated have high or very high vulnerability, with higher vulnerability at the 500 m scale (51.4 %). We identified four groups of coastal wetlands: two located in central Chile, mainly affected by climate change-associated drivers (41.9 ± 2.1 %), and one in central Chile which is affected by land cover change (52.8 ± 6.2 %); the latter has a lower vulnerability level. The most vulnerable coastal wetlands were located in central Chile. Our results present novel findings about the current vulnerability of coastal wetlands, which could be validated by governmental institutions in field campaigns. Finally, we believe that our methodological approach could be useful to generate similar assessments in other world zones.}, }
@article {pmid37579148, year = {2023}, author = {Fernandez, CW and Mielke, L and Stefanski, A and Bermudez, R and Hobbie, SE and Montgomery, RA and Reich, PB and Kennedy, PG}, title = {Climate change-induced stress disrupts ectomycorrhizal interaction networks at the boreal-temperate ecotone.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {34}, pages = {e2221619120}, pmid = {37579148}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Mycorrhizae ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Trees/physiology ; *Pinus/microbiology ; }, abstract = {The interaction networks formed by ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF) and their tree hosts, which are important to both forest recruitment and ecosystem carbon and nutrient retention, may be particularly susceptible to climate change at the boreal-temperate forest ecotone where environmental conditions are changing rapidly. Here, we quantified the compositional and functional trait responses of EMF communities and their interaction networks with two boreal (Pinus banksiana and Betula papyrifera) and two temperate (Pinus strobus and Quercus macrocarpa) hosts to a factorial combination of experimentally elevated temperatures and reduced rainfall in a long-term open-air field experiment. The study was conducted at the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment in Minnesota, USA, where infrared lamps and buried heating cables elevate temperatures (ambient, +3.1 °C) and rain-out shelters reduce growing season precipitation (ambient, ~30% reduction). EMF communities were characterized and interaction networks inferred from metabarcoding of fungal-colonized root tips. Warming and rainfall reduction significantly altered EMF community composition, leading to an increase in the relative abundance of EMF with contact-short distance exploration types. These compositional changes, which likely limited the capacity for mycelial connections between trees, corresponded with shifts from highly redundant EMF interaction networks under ambient conditions to less redundant (more specialized) networks. Further, the observed changes in EMF communities and interaction networks were correlated with changes in soil moisture and host photosynthesis. Collectively, these results indicate that the projected changes in climate will likely lead to significant shifts in the traits, structure, and integrity of EMF communities as well as their interaction networks in forest ecosystems at the boreal-temperate ecotone.}, }
@article {pmid37578422, year = {2023}, author = {Fehrer, V and Poß-Doering, R and Weis, A and Wensing, M and Szecsenyi, J and Litke, N}, title = {Climate change mitigation: Qualitative analysis of environmental impact-reducing strategies in German primary care.}, journal = {The European journal of general practice}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {2232946}, pmid = {37578422}, issn = {1751-1402}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Germany ; *Environment ; Primary Health Care ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The German healthcare system is responsible for 5,2% of the national emissions of greenhouse gases. Therefore, mitigation actions to reduce the carbon footprint are crucial. However, there have been few approaches to achieve this in German primary care.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to identify environmental impact-reducing strategies of German primary care practices.<br><br>METHODS: During the summer of 2021, a qualitative study was conducted using interviews and focus groups with experts in primary care across Germany, such as physicians, medical assistants, health scientists and experts on the health system level. Verbatim transcribed data were analyzed using Thematic Analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: The sample comprised 26 individual interviews and two focus groups with a total of N&#x2009;=&#x2009;40 participants. Findings provide a first overview of pursued mitigation strategies and contextual&#xa0;factors influencing their implementation. Strategies referred to the use of water and energy, recycling and waste management, supply chains and procurement, digitisation, mobility, patient care, behavioural changes and system level. Implementing sustainable actions in daily care was considered expensive and often unfeasible due to lack of staff, time and restrictive hygiene regulations. Participants called for more instruction on implementing mitigating actions, for example, through websites, podcasts, guidelines or quality indicators.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study's findings can support the development of future environmental impact-reducing strategies in primary care. Potential options for guidance and support should be considered to facilitate sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid37576494, year = {2023}, author = {Mata, F and Nunes, LJR}, title = {European citizens' stance on limiting energy use for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e15835}, pmid = {37576494}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Attitude ; Policy ; Social Behavior ; }, abstract = {Citizens' attitudes and beliefs towards climate change are decisive in the adoption of mitigating measures. Limiting the use of energy in the context of climate change can be one of the mitigation measures, and therefore, understanding the position of the citizens towards it is important. With this aim, we used data from the 10[th] European Social Survey to relate the European citizens' beliefs and attitudes on limiting the use of energy to tackle climate change. We have used variables related to demography and individuals' perception of society and its policies. Statistical models were successfully fitted to data. Individuals with higher levels of trust in scientists have a higher degree of satisfaction with the national economies, are more worried about climate change and are more capable of assuming self-responsibility in climate change mitigation. These individuals have higher probabilities of believing that climate change mitigation could be achieved by limiting the use of energy. The EU citizens are, however, very skeptical in relation to the probability of many other citizens adopting measures to limit the use of energy.}, }
@article {pmid37576243, year = {2023}, author = {Molla, E and Melka, Y and Desta, G}, title = {Determinants of farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change impacts in northwestern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {e18514}, pmid = {37576243}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change and related extreme events have become global challenges in ensuring sustainable development. This affects water availability and agricultural production, particularly in developing countries. This study explored the factors affecting farmers' adaptation mechanisms to climate change in different agro-ecological zones of the Bure Zuria district of northwestern Ethiopia. A household survey, focus group discussion, key informant interviews, and observations were used to acquire primary data on farmers' socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, adaptation strategies and potential barriers. About 190 randomly selected households from different agro-ecologies were included in this study. Moreover, reports and published sources were used to acquire secondary data. Data were analyzed using a multinomial logit regression model and descriptive statistics. The results indicated that soil and water conservation practices (26.7%) were the main adaptation responses in highland agro-ecology. In contrast, supplementary feeding for livestock (56%) was the main adaptation response to the adverse effects of climate extremes in lowland agro-ecology. Farmers identified land scarcity (25.84%) and shortage of water for irrigation (28.57%) as major barriers to adaptation in the highland and lowland agro-ecologies, respectively. In addition, agro-ecology, education level, age, active labor, number of livestock (TLU), off-farm income, frequency of extension contacts, credit access, and market access were decisive factors affecting farmers' adaptation mechanisms to withstand extreme climatic events. In conclusion, soil and water conservation practices are more practiced in highland areas than in lowland areas. Because the steepness of farmlands and erodible soils increase farmers' vulnerability to flood hazards in highland areas than in lowland areas. It is suggested that investigations on the climate change-induced gender-differentiated impacts shall be conducted to design all-inclusive and effective responses.}, }
@article {pmid37575633, year = {2022}, author = {Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Ghana medical journal}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {236-238}, pmid = {37575633}, issn = {2616-163X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid37574052, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, D and Liang, Y and Liu, L and Huang, J and Yin, Z}, title = {Crop production on the Chinese Loess Plateau under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {903}, number = {}, pages = {166158}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166158}, pmid = {37574052}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global warming is a crucial factor affecting crop production in ecologically vulnerable areas. Warming-induced changes in the yields of different crops could pose significant challenges to food security and sustainability assessment. In this study, the World Food Studies model and a remote sensing product assimilation algorithm were used to develop a spatially explicit crop assimilation model applicable to the Loess Plateau of China. The model was used to simulate potential changes in actual yields and yield gaps for winter wheat and maize under three typical climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) from 2016 to 2060. Average yields increased in both winter wheat (2.38 %-4.96 %) and maize (5.41 %-6.85 %), with maize (RCP 4.5 > RCP 8.5 > RCP 2.6) more adapted to climate warming than winter wheat (RCP 2.6 > RCP 8.5 > RCP 4.5) in terms of yield increase rate. The yield increase and yield gap for winter wheat decreased most significantly in RCP2.6 (-2.28 %). Maize yield did not exceed 80 % of the potential yield in any scenario. The average phenological periods for winter wheat and maize are predicted be 2-4 and 9-16 days earlier, respectively. Crop yields were negatively correlated with radiation and yield gaps were positively correlated with precipitation. Future climate change will likely cause dramatic interannual crop yield fluctuations. Winter wheat is predicted to experience yield stagnation after 2050, whereas maize production potential will increase briefly before experiencing a long-term decline in growth. The results of this multi-scenario simulation assessment of crop production provide scientific support for implementing climate-adapted crop management strategies and integrated dry-crop-irrigated agriculture to meet food security objectives in this ecologically fragile area. We recommend integrated management measures to ensure regional food security through crop variety improvement, irrigation regulation, and planting structure optimization.}, }
@article {pmid37573072, year = {2023}, author = {Samarasekera, U}, title = {Vanessa Kerry: driving action on climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {402}, number = {10401}, pages = {519}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01628-8}, pmid = {37573072}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid37572230, year = {2023}, author = {Junttila, V and Minunno, F and Peltoniemi, M and Forsius, M and Akujärvi, A and Ojanen, P and Mäkelä, A}, title = {Quantification of forest carbon flux and stock uncertainties under climate change and their use in regionally explicit decision making: Case study in Finland.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {52}, number = {11}, pages = {1716-1733}, pmid = {37572230}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {335958//Strategic Research Council/ ; 347848//Academy of Finland/ ; 335958//Academy of Finland/ ; 345532//Academy of Finland/ ; 101000574//Academy of Finland/ ; 344722//Academy of Finland/ ; 312912//Academy of Finland/ ; 101000574//Horizon 2020/ ; VN/33334/2021//Finnish Ministry of the Environment/ ; VN/5082/2020//Finnish Ministry of the Environment/ ; VN/28536/2020//Finnish Ministry of the Environment/ ; BiodivClim ERA-Net Cofund//BiodivERsA/ ; }, abstract = {Uncertainties are essential, yet often neglected, information for evaluating the reliability in forest carbon balance projections used in national and regional policy planning. We analysed uncertainties in the forest net biome exchange (NBE) and carbon stocks under multiple management and climate scenarios with a process-based ecosystem model. Sampled forest initial state values, model parameters, harvest levels and global climate models (GCMs) served as inputs in Monte Carlo simulations, which covered forests of the 18 regions of mainland Finland over the period 2015-2050. Under individual scenarios, the results revealed time- and region-dependent variability in the magnitude of uncertainty and mean values of the NBE projections. The main sources of uncertainty varied with time, by region and by the amount of harvested wood. Combinations of uncertainties in the representative concentration pathways scenarios, GCMs, forest initial values and model parameters were the main sources of uncertainty at the beginning, while the harvest scenarios dominated by the end of the simulation period, combined with GCMs and climate scenarios especially in the north. Our regionally explicit uncertainty analysis was found a useful approach to reveal the variability in the regional potentials to reach a policy related, future target level of NBE, which is important information when planning realistic and regionally fair national policy actions.}, }
@article {pmid37572111, year = {2023}, author = {Grigorieva, EA and Alexeev, VA and Walsh, JE}, title = {Universal thermal climate index in the Arctic in an era of climate change: Alaska and Chukotka as a case study.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {67}, number = {11}, pages = {1703-1721}, pmid = {37572111}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {The modern unambiguous climate change reveals in a rapid increase of air temperature, which is more distinctly expressed in the Arctic than in any other part of the world, affecting people health and well-being. The main objective of the current research is to explore the inter- and intra-annual changes in thermal stress for people in the Arctic, specifically for two parts of Beringia: Alaska, USA, and Chukotka, Russia, using climatology of the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). Data for 39 locations are taken from the ERA5-HEAT reanalysis for the period 1979-2020. Climatologically, the study area is divided into four subregions in Alaska: North, Interior, West and South, and two in Chukotka: Interior and Coast. The extreme coldest UTCI categories (1 and 2) are most common in coastal locations of northern Alaska and Chukotka, where strong winds exacerbate the low temperatures during winter. The results show that the frequency of category 1 (UTCI<-40°C) varies spatially from a quarter of all hours annually in Alaska North to almost zero in Alaska South. On the other hand, the warmest categories are rarely reached almost everywhere in Alaska and Chukotka, and even categories 7 and 8 (UTCI between +26 and +38°C) are found occasionally only at interior locations. Category 6 with no thermal stress (UTCI between +9 and+26°C) has frequencies up to 3% and 25% in Alaska North and Interior, respectively. The extremely cold thermal stress frequencies have substantially decreased over the 1979-2020 period, especially in Alaska North and Chukotka Coast. At the same time, the number of hours with UTCI in the comfortable category of thermal perception has increased depending on subregion, from 25 to 203 h/year. Overall, a decrease in the UTCI categories of extremely cold stress is coupled with an increase in the comfortable range in both Alaska and Chukotka. The salient conclusion is that, from the point of view of comfort and safety, global warming has a positive impact on the climatology of thermal stress in the Arctic, providing advantages for the development of tourism and recreation.}, }
@article {pmid37572013, year = {2023}, author = {McKasy, M and Cacciatore, MA and Yeo, SK and Zhang, JS and Cook, J and Olaleye, R and Su, LY}, title = {Engaging the dismissive: An assessment of humor-based strategies to support global warming action.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {9636625231186785}, doi = {10.1177/09636625231186785}, pmid = {37572013}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {This study aims to understand the influence of mirth, anger, and hope, as elicited by messages with different humor types, on support for global warming action, and the potential moderating role of individual climate concern. Although mirth did not significantly vary across the different stimuli, the analysis found that climate concern moderated the influence of hope on support for global warming actions. The implications of these findings, especially for respondents who were least supportive of actions to combat global warming, are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid37571005, year = {2023}, author = {Patidar, A and Yadav, MC and Kumari, J and Tiwari, S and Chawla, G and Paul, V}, title = {Identification of Climate-Smart Bread Wheat Germplasm Lines with Enhanced Adaptation to Global Warming.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {37571005}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is widely grown in sub-tropical and tropical areas and, as such, it is exposed to heatstress especially during the grain filling period (GFP). Global warming has further affected its production and productivity in these heat-stressed environments. We examined the effects of heatstress on 18 morpho-physiological and yield-related traits in 96 bread wheat accessions. Heat stress decreased crop growth and GFP, and consequently reduced morphological and yield-related traits in the delayed sown crop. A low heat susceptibility index and high yield stability were used for selecting tolerant accessions. Under heatstress, the days to 50% anthesis, flag-leaf area, chlorophyll content, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), thousand grain weight (TGW), harvest index and grain yield were significantly reduced both in tolerant and susceptible accessions. The reduction was severe in susceptible accessions (48.2% grain yield reduction in IC277741). The plant height, peduncle length and spike length showeda significant reduction in susceptible accessions, but a non-significant reduction in the tolerant accessions under the heatstress. The physiological traits like the canopy temperature depression (CTD), plant waxiness and leaf rolling were increased in tolerant accessions under heatstress. Scanning electron microscopy of matured wheat grains revealed ultrastructural changes in endosperm and aleurone cells due to heat stress. The reduction in size and density of large starch granules is the major cause of the yield and TGW decrease in the heat-stress-susceptible accessions. The most stable and high-yielding accessions, namely, IC566223, IC128454, IC335792, EC576707, IC535176, IC529207, IC446713 and IC416019 were identified as the climate-smart germplasm lines. We selected germplasm lines possessing desirable traits as potential parents for the development of bi-parent and multi-parent mapping populations.}, }
@article {pmid37570268, year = {2023}, author = {Abernathy, VE and Good, A and Blanchard, A and Bongiovanni, M and Bonds, E and Warner, H and Chaknis, E and Pulsifer, G and Huntley, F}, title = {The Effects of Climate Change on the Nesting Phenology of Three Shorebird Species in the United States.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {37570268}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Previous research suggests that a frequent response of organisms to the ongoing climate crisis is the adjustment of their reproductive timing or breeding phenology. Shorebirds may be especially vulnerable to increasing temperatures and precipitation, as many are migratory and depend on coastal habitats for wintering and breeding. These particular habitats could be at risk due to changes in climate, and nesting times often depend on food availability, which is often directly influenced by temperature. We investigated if clutch initiation dates (CID) for three shorebird species in the United States have become earlier over time with increasing temperatures and precipitation. We used nest records from Cornell's NestWatch program and various museum databases and weather station data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We found evidence that CIDs have become earlier over time, though this was only a significant factor for one species. While temperature in our study areas has increased significantly over time, precipitation changes were more variable and not always significantly predicted by time. We found evidence that one species may be responding to increasing temperatures by nesting earlier, but there was no support for our hypothesis that CID has changed due to changes in precipitation for any species. Results varied for each species, indicating the importance of further studies on shorebirds as the effects of climate change on their nesting phenology may not be fully realized and will likely depend on the species' biology and distribution.}, }
@article {pmid37568988, year = {2023}, author = {Lemon, SC and Joseph, HA and Williams, S and Brown, C and Aytur, S and Catalano, K and Chacker, S and Goins, KV and Rudolph, L and Whitehead, S and Zimmerman, S and Schramm, PJ}, title = {Reimagining the Role of Health Departments and Their Partners in Addressing Climate Change: Revising the Building Resilience against Climate Effects (BRACE) Framework.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {37568988}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {U48DP006381/ACL/ACL HHS/United States ; U48 DP006381/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {United States ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Public Health/methods ; Health Promotion ; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. ; *Health Equity ; }, abstract = {Public health departments have important roles to play in addressing the local health impacts of climate change, yet are often not well prepared to do so. The Climate and Health Program (CHP) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) created the Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework in 2012 as a five-step planning framework to support public health departments and their partners to respond to the health impacts of climate change. CHP has initiated a process to revise the framework to address learnings from a decade of experience with BRACE and advances in the science and practice of addressing climate and health. The aim of this manuscript is to describe the methodology for revising the BRACE framework and the expected outputs of this process. Development of the revised framework and associated guidance and tools will be guided by a multi-sector expert panel, and finalization will be informed by usability testing. Planned revisions to BRACE will (1) be consistent with the vision of Public Health 3.0 and position health departments as "chief health strategists" in their communities, who are responsible for facilitating the establishment and maintenance of cross-sector collaborations with community organizations, other partners, and other government agencies to address local climate impacts and prevent further harm to historically underserved communities; (2) place health equity as a central, guiding tenet; (3) incorporate greenhouse gas mitigation strategies, in addition to its previous focus on climate adaptation; and (4) feature a new set of tools to support BRACE implementation among a diverse set of users. The revised BRACE framework and the associated tools will support public health departments and their partners as they strive to prevent and reduce the negative health impacts of climate change for everyone, while focusing on improving health equity.}, }
@article {pmid37568208, year = {2023}, author = {Klingelhöfer, D and Braun, M and Brüggmann, D and Groneberg, DA}, title = {Heatwaves: does global research reflect the growing threat in the light of climate change?.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {56}, pmid = {37568208}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Extreme Heat ; Australia ; China ; Europe ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: With the increasing impacts of climate change, heatwaves are placing an enormous burden on health and social systems and threatening ecological diversity around the world. Heatwaves are increasing not only in frequency but also in severity and magnitude. They are causing the deaths of thousands of people. Research is needed on a multidisciplinary, supra-regional, and regional level.<br><br>METHODS: A detailed evaluation of the research conducted is not yet available. Therefore, this study provides a detailed insight into the publication landscape to identify key players, incentives, and requirements for future scientific efforts that are useful not only for scientists but also to stakeholders and project funders.<br><br>RESULTS: The number of publications on heatwaves is increasing, outpacing the trend of research indexed by the Science Citation Index Expanded. However, funding is lagging behind comparatively. Looking at absolute numbers, the USA, Australia, China, and some European countries have been identified as major players in heatwave research. If socio-economic numbers are included, Switzerland and Portugal lead the way. Australia and the UK dominate if the change in heatwave-exposed people is included. Nevertheless, exposure and economic strength of publishing countries were identified as the main drivers of national research interests. Previous heatwaves, in particular, have driven research efforts primarily at the national level.<br><br>CONCLUSION: For an efficient monitoring or early detection system that also includes the economically weak regions, internationally networked efforts are necessary to enable preventive measures and damage limitation against heatwaves. Regardless of previous regional extreme heat events, research approaches should be focused to the global level.}, }
@article {pmid37566539, year = {2023}, author = {Miner, KR and Hollis, JR and Miller, CE and Uckert, K and Douglas, TA and Cardarelli, E and Mackelprang, R}, title = {Earth to Mars: A Protocol for Characterizing Permafrost in the Context of Climate Change as an Analog for Extraplanetary Exploration.}, journal = {Astrobiology}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {1006-1018}, pmid = {37566539}, issn = {1557-8070}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Mars ; *Permafrost ; Soil/chemistry ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Abstract Permafrost is important from an exobiology and climate change perspective. It serves as an analog for extraplanetary exploration, and it threatens to emit globally significant amounts of greenhouse gases as it thaws due to climate change. Viable microbes survive in Earth's permafrost, slowly metabolizing and transforming organic matter through geologic time. Ancient permafrost microbial communities represent a crucial resource for gaining novel insights into survival strategies adopted by extremotolerant organisms in extraplanetary analogs. We present a proof-of-concept study on ∼22 Kya permafrost to determine the potential for coupling Raman and fluorescence biosignature detection technology from the NASA Mars Perseverance rover with microbial community characterization in frozen soils, which could be expanded to other Earth and off-Earth locations. Besides the well-known utility for biosignature detection and identification, our results indicate that spectral mapping of permafrost could be used to rapidly characterize organic carbon characteristics. Coupled with microbial community analyses, this method has the potential to enhance our understanding of carbon degradation and emissions in thawing permafrost. Further, spectroscopy can be accomplished in situ to mitigate sample transport challenges and in assessing and prioritizing frozen soils for further investigation. This method has broad-range applicability to understanding microbial communities and their associations with biosignatures and soil carbon and mineralogic characteristics relevant to climate science and astrobiology.}, }
@article {pmid37564387, year = {2023}, author = {Zou, H and Chen, B and Zhang, B and Zhou, X and Zhang, X and Zhang, X and Wang, J}, title = {Conservation planning for the endemic and endangered medicinal plants under the climate change and human disturbance: a case study of Gentiana manshurica in China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1184556}, pmid = {37564387}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Human activities and climate change have significantly impacted the quantity and sustainable utilization of medicinal plants. Gentiana manshurica Kitagawa, a high-quality original species of Gentianae Radix et Rhizoma, has significant medicinal value. However, wild resources have experienced a sharp decline due to human excavation, habitat destruction, and other factors. Consequently, it has been classified as an Endangered (EN) species on the IUCN Red List and is considered a third-level national key-protected medicinal material in China. The effects of climate change on G. manshurica are not yet known in the context of the severe negative impacts of climate change on most species. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the current and future potential distribution of G. manshurica. In addition, land use data in 1980, 2000, and 2020 were used to calculate habitat quality by InVEST model and landscape fragmentation by the Fragstats model. Finally, using the above-calculated results, the priority protection areas and wild tending areas of G. manshurica were planned in ZONATION software. The results show that the suitable area is mainly distributed in the central part of the Songnen Plain. Bio15, bio03, bio01, and clay content are the environmental variables affecting the distribution. In general, the future potential distribution is expected to show an increasing trend. However, the species is expected to become threatened as carbon emission scenarios and years increase gradually. At worst, the high suitability area is expected to disappear completely under SSP585-2090s. Combined with the t-test, this could be due to pressure from bio01. The migration trends of climate niche centroid are inconsistent and do not all move to higher latitudes under different carbon emission scenarios. Over the past 40 years, habitat quality in the current potential distribution has declined yearly, and natural habitat has gradually fragmented. Existing reserves protect only 9.52% of G. manshurica's priority conservation area. To avoid extinction risk and increase the practicality of the results, we clarified the hotspot counties of priority protection area gaps and wild tending areas. These results can provide an essential reference and decision basis for effectively protecting G. manshurica under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37562625, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, D and Liu, J and Li, D and Batchelor, WD and Wu, D and Zhen, X and Ju, H}, title = {Future climate change impacts on wheat grain yield and protein in the North China Region.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {902}, number = {}, pages = {166147}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166147}, pmid = {37562625}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Triticum ; Climate Change ; *Grain Proteins ; Edible Grain ; Agriculture/methods ; China ; }, abstract = {The threat of global climate change on wheat production may be underestimated by the limited capacity of many crop models to predict grain quality and protein composition. This study aimed to integrate a wheat quality module of protein components into the CROPSIM-CERES-Wheat model to investigate the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield and protein quality in the North China Region (NCR) using five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 under three shared socioeconomic pathways. The CERES-Wheat model with a quality module was developed and calibrated and validated using data from several sites in the NCR. The results of the calibration and validation showed that the modified CERES-Wheat model can accurately predict grain yield, protein content and its components in field experiments. Compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), the annual mean temperature and annual cumulative precipitation increased in the NCR in the 2030's, 2050's and 2080's. The radiation was higher under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, and lower under the SSP370 scenario compared to the baseline period. The anthesis and maturity date occurred earlier under the three future scenarios. The average grain yield increased by 13.3-30.9 % under three future scenarios. However, the regional average grain protein content of winter wheat in the future decreased by 2.0 %- 3.5 %. The reduction in wheat grain protein at the regional was less pronounced under SSP370 than that under SSP126 and SSP585. The structural protein content of winter wheat decreased under future climate conditions compared with the baseline period, but the storage protein content showed the opposite tendency. The model provided a useful tool to study the effects of future climate on grain quality and protein composition. These findings are important for developing agricultural practices and strategies to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change on wheat production and wheat quality in the future.}, }
@article {pmid37562403, year = {2023}, author = {Hu, R and Li, X and Hu, Y and Zhang, R and Lv, Q and Zhang, M and Sheng, X and Zhao, F and Chen, Z and Ding, Y and Yuan, H and Wu, X and Xing, S and Yan, X and Bao, F and Wan, P and Xiao, L and Wang, X and Xiao, W and Decker, EL and van Gessel, N and Renault, H and Wiedemann, G and Horst, NA and Haas, FB and Wilhelmsson, PKI and Ullrich, KK and Neumann, E and Lv, B and Liang, C and Du, H and Lu, H and Gao, Q and Cheng, Z and You, H and Xin, P and Chu, J and Huang, CH and Liu, Y and Dong, S and Zhang, L and Chen, F and Deng, L and Duan, F and Zhao, W and Li, K and Li, Z and Li, X and Cui, H and Zhang, YE and Ma, C and Zhu, R and Jia, Y and Wang, M and Hasebe, M and Fu, J and Goffinet, B and Ma, H and Rensing, SA and Reski, R and He, Y}, title = {Adaptive evolution of the enigmatic Takakia now facing climate change in Tibet.}, journal = {Cell}, volume = {186}, number = {17}, pages = {3558-3576.e17}, doi = {10.1016/j.cell.2023.07.003}, pmid = {37562403}, issn = {1097-4172}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Tibet ; *Bryophyta/physiology ; }, abstract = {The most extreme environments are the most vulnerable to transformation under a rapidly changing climate. These ecosystems harbor some of the most specialized species, which will likely suffer the highest extinction rates. We document the steepest temperature increase (2010-2021) on record at altitudes of above 4,000 m, triggering a decline of the relictual and highly adapted moss Takakia lepidozioides. Its de-novo-sequenced genome with 27,467 protein-coding genes includes distinct adaptations to abiotic stresses and comprises the largest number of fast-evolving genes under positive selection. The uplift of the study site in the last 65 million years has resulted in life-threatening UV-B radiation and drastically reduced temperatures, and we detected several of the molecular adaptations of Takakia to these environmental changes. Surprisingly, specific morphological features likely occurred earlier than 165 mya in much warmer environments. Following nearly 400 million years of evolution and resilience, this species is now facing extinction.}, }
@article {pmid37562251, year = {2023}, author = {Ortmeyer, F}, title = {Treatment by enhanced denitrification of forecasted nitrate concentrations under different climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {344}, number = {}, pages = {118740}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118740}, pmid = {37562251}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Nitrates/analysis ; Denitrification ; Environmental Monitoring ; Climate Change ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; *Groundwater ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a decisive influence on future water resources and, consequently, on future nitrate (NO3[-]) concentrations. Due to decreasing water resources, in addition to decreasing and finite NO3[-] degradation capacities of the aquifers, higher NO3[-] concentrations are expected in the future. Likewise, NO3[-] pollution is expected to become more frequent. However, enhanced denitrification by addition of organic carbon (C) as an electron donor is a promising treatment method. This study describes the first model using NO3[-] projections based on climate projections, combined with the treatment method of enhanced denitrification. The exemplary study area is the Lodshof water catchment which is located in the Lower Rhine Embayment. The model illustrates the considerable potential of enhanced denitrification as an effective treatment. The expected increase in NO3[-] concentrations by the end of the 21[st] century, resulting from climate chance and a decreasing water resource, can be reduced by 38-58% in this model. In all projections, the limit value of 50 mg/L can be complied by this treatment. A projection with 20% lower NO3[-] input and the described treatment highlights the effectivity of combining measures to be able to manage the NO3[-] problem. Furthermore, this publication critically discusses the transfer of denitrification rates from laboratory experiments to the field scale and finally into models like this.}, }
@article {pmid37562014, year = {2023}, author = {Mallon, WT and Deas, D and Good, ML}, title = {Reasons for Optimism About Academic Medicine's Actions Against Climate Change.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {98}, number = {11}, pages = {1243-1246}, doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000005331}, pmid = {37562014}, issn = {1938-808X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Hospitals, Teaching ; Schools, Medical ; Educational Status ; *Medicine ; }, abstract = {Since the first mention of climate change in Academic Medicine in 2009, the pace of the climate crisis has accelerated, its impacts on every facet of planetary health have grown more severe, and the urgency for humans to act has become more dire. Medical schools, teaching hospitals and health systems, universities, affiliated organizations, and the millions of people who traverse the halls of these institutions as leaders, physicians, scientists, educators, learners, patients and families, and community members have an obligation to respond. In this commentary, the authors describe 3 reasons they are optimistic that academic medicine will continue to act against climate change. First, the mission of academic medicine, inherently aligned with climate action, propels teaching hospitals and health systems to address climate change to improve the health of patients, families, and communities. Second, younger generations of learners, faculty, and staff who populate the workforce increasingly desire, and often demand, to work at institutions that are aligned with their personal values for climate action. Third, broader forces are pushing academic medicine forward in action against climate change. Economic factors will continue to reduce the cost and increase the return on investment of climate-smart facilities, purchased goods and services, fuel, transportation, food systems, and waste management. The authors are optimistic but not complacent. Current levels of climate action in academic medicine are not nearly enough. Faculty, staff, learners, leaders, patients and families, and community partners can and must apply a "climate lens" to everything they do: weave climate solutions into education, patient care, research, community collaborations, operations, and supply chain and facility management; integrate climate actions into strategic thinking, planning, and doing; address health inequities and climate injustice; and leverage their trusted voices to press for climate action and climate justice in the health sector and in society.}, }
@article {pmid37561873, year = {2023}, author = {Bay, LK and Gilmour, J and Muir, B and Hardisty, PE}, title = {Management approaches to conserve Australia's marine ecosystem under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {381}, number = {6658}, pages = {631-636}, doi = {10.1126/science.adi3023}, pmid = {37561873}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Humans ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Coral Reefs ; }, abstract = {Australia's coastal marine ecosystems have a deep cultural significance to Indigenous Australians, include multiple World Heritage sites, and support the nation's rapidly growing blue economy. Yet, increasing local pressures and global climate change are expected to undermine the biological, social, cultural, and economic value of these ecosystems within a human generation. Mitigating the causes of climate change is the most urgent action to secure their future; however, conventional and new management actions will play roles in preserving ecosystem function and value until that is achieved. This includes strategies codeveloped with Indigenous Australians that are guided by traditional ecological knowledge and a modeling and decision support framework. We provide examples of developments at one of Australia's most iconic ecosystems, the Great Barrier Reef, where recent, large block funding supports research, governance, and engagement to accelerate the development of tools for management under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37561864, year = {2023}, author = {Carlino, A and Wildemeersch, M and Chawanda, CJ and Giuliani, M and Sterl, S and Thiery, W and van Griensven, A and Castelletti, A}, title = {Declining cost of renewables and climate change curb the need for African hydropower expansion.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {381}, number = {6658}, pages = {eadf5848}, doi = {10.1126/science.adf5848}, pmid = {37561864}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Across continental Africa, more than 300 new hydropower projects are under consideration to meet the future energy demand that is expected based on the growing population and increasing energy access. Yet large uncertainties associated with hydroclimatic and socioeconomic changes challenge hydropower planning. In this work, we show that only 40 to 68% of the candidate hydropower capacity in Africa is economically attractive. By analyzing the African energy systems' development from 2020 to 2050 for different scenarios of energy demand, land-use change, and climate impacts on water availability, we find that wind and solar outcompete hydropower by 2030. An additional 1.8 to 4% increase in annual continental investment ensures reliability against future hydroclimatic variability. However, cooperation between countries is needed to overcome the divergent spatial distribution of investment costs and potential energy deficits.}, }
@article {pmid37558789, year = {2023}, author = {Coleman, J}, title = {This moss survived 165 million years - and now it's under threat from climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37558789}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37558728, year = {2023}, author = {Markos, D and Worku, W and Mamo, G}, title = {Exploring adaptation responses of maize to climate change scenarios in southern central Rift Valley of Ethiopia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {12949}, pmid = {37558728}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Agriculture/methods ; *Zea mays ; Climate Change ; Ethiopia ; Nitrogen ; }, abstract = {In this study, we assessed responses of adaptation options to possible climate change scenarios on maize growth and yield by using projections of 20 coupled ensemble climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 by means of a DSSAT model. Growth and yield simulations were made across present and future climate conditions using the hybrid maize variety (Shone). Subsequently, simulated yields were compared with farmer' average and on-farm trial yields. Results showed that on-farm trial yield (5.1-7.3 t ha[-1]) lay in between farmers' average yield (2.9-5 t ha[-1]) and water-limited potential yield (6.3-10.6 t ha[-1]). Maize yields achieved in farmers' fields are projected to decline towards mid-century and further towards the end of the century regardless of the adaptation options compared with baseline in low potential clusters. Results of a combination of adaptation options including February planting, use of 64 kg ha[-1] N and conservation tillage provided yield advantage of 5.8% over the 30 cm till under medium GHGs emission scenario during mid-century period at Shamana. Mulching with 5 t ha[-1] was projected to produce a 4-5% yield advantage in the Hawassa cluster during the mid-century period regardless of changes in tillage or planting window. Under a high GHGs emission scenario, over 13.4% yield advantage was projected in the Bilate cluster due to conservation tillage and June planting during the mid-century period. In the Dilla cluster, the use of 10 t ha[-1] mulch, conservation tillage and early planting (February) would result in a 1.8% yield advantage compared with the control either in medium or high GHGs emission scenarios. Thus, the most promising and least risky practices among simulated strategies were the use of nitrogen and mulching in combination with tillage or planting date adjustment. However, adaptation options remained least promising and highly risky if not integrated with mulching or nitrogen use. Hence, the negative impacts of future climate change and subsequent yield gaps would be reduced by optimizing the application of nitrogen, mulch and their interaction with planting date and tillage in high and low potential areas of maize production.}, }
@article {pmid37558208, year = {2023}, author = {Lovell, RSL and Collins, S and Martin, SH and Pigot, AL and Phillimore, AB}, title = {Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {98}, number = {6}, pages = {2243-2270}, doi = {10.1111/brv.13004}, pmid = {37558208}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome ; Ecology ; Biodiversity ; Biota ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.}, }
@article {pmid37556711, year = {2023}, author = {Zani, LB and Duarte, ID and Falqueto, AR and Pugnaire, FI and Menezes, LFT}, title = {Changes in growth and reproductive phenology of Allagoptera arenaria (Arecaceae) under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {95}, number = {suppl 1}, pages = {e20220241}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202320220241}, pmid = {37556711}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {Humans ; *Arecaceae/physiology ; Climate Change ; Biomass ; Environment ; Reproduction/physiology ; Temperature ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change has led to shifts in phenology in many species distributed widely across taxonomic groups. It is, however, unclear how we should interpret these shifts without some sort of a yardstick. We assessed climate change effects on Allagoptera arenaria, a acaulescent palm, using open top chambers (OTCs) and rain gutters in the field to mimic expected temperature and rainfall changes in this area. In a coastal environment (restinga), using open top chambers (OTCs) and rain gutters in the field to mimic expected temperature and rainfall changes in this area, 40 A. arenaria individuals were selected and randomly allocated to four treatments: control (C), 25% rainfall increase (P), 2 °C temperature increase (T), and 2 °C temperature plus 25% rainfall increase (TP). For 2 years, every two weeks, we measured changes in growth and reproduction phenology to assess whether this species altered allocation patterns in response to new environmental conditions. Increases in aboveground biomass were higher in the TP than in the T treatment, which in turn had more reproductive cycles throughout the experimental period. We conclude that temperature increases may shorten the reproductive cycle of A. arenaria.}, }
@article {pmid37556450, year = {2023}, author = {Buttke, DE and Raynor, B and Schuurman, GW}, title = {Predicting climate-change induced heat-related illness risk in Grand Canyon National Park visitors.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {8}, pages = {e0288812}, pmid = {37556450}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; Hot Temperature ; Parks, Recreational ; Temperature ; *Extreme Heat ; Climate Change ; *Heat Stress Disorders ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The climate crisis is the greatest public health threat of the 21st century. Excessive heat is responsible for more deaths than any other extreme weather event, and the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events are increasing globally due to climate change. Exposure to excessive heat can result in heat related illnesses (HRIs) and long-term poor health outcomes. Physical exertion, sudden exposure to excessive heat, and the lack of physical or behavioral adaptation resources are all associated with greater HRI risk, which is expected to increase for visitors to Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP) and other public lands as climate change worsens.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to understand 1) the relationship between weather and HRI in GCNP visitors, 2) how future HRI rates may change, and 3) how land management agencies can update risk mitigation strategies to match changing risk and better manage an increased HRI burden.<br><br>METHODS: We utilized previously published data on HRI in GCNP visitors, and records of daily visitation, temperatures, and maximum and minimum daily humidity from the same study period to develop a model estimate for HRI risk. We then used future climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 multi-model dataset to model future HRI risk under different climate scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: The incidence of HRI was significantly associated with maximum daily temperature and minimum relative humidity, and was more common in the shoulder season months. We estimated that HRI will increase 29%-137% over 2004-2009 levels through 2100, assuming no change in visitation.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate change will continue to increase HRI risk for GCNP visitors and poses risks to public land managers' mission to provide for safe recreation experiences for the benefit of this and future generations in places like GCNP. Excessive risk during the shoulder season months presents an opportunity to increase preventative search and rescue and education efforts to mitigate increased risk.}, }
@article {pmid37555502, year = {2023}, author = {Tan, K and Ransangan, J and Tan, K and Cheong, KL}, title = {The impact of climate change on Omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids in bivalves.}, journal = {Critical reviews in food science and nutrition}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1080/10408398.2023.2242943}, pmid = {37555502}, issn = {1549-7852}, abstract = {Omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 LC-PUFA) have many health benefits to human. Increasing evidence have shown that climate change reduces the availability of plankton n-3 LC-PUFA to primary consumers which potentially reduces the availability of n-3 LC-PUFA to human. Since marine bivalves are an important source of n-3 LC-PUFA for human beings, and bivalve aquaculture completely depends on phytoplankton in ambient water as food, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on the lipid nutritional quality of bivalves. In this study, fatty acid profile of different bivalves (mussels, oysters, clams, scallops and cockles) from different regions (tropical, subtropical and temperate) and time (before 1990, 1991-1995, 1996-2000, 2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2011-2015, 2016-2020) were extracted from published literature to calculate various lipid nutritional quality indicators. The results of this study revealed that the effects of global warming and declines in aragonite saturation state on the lipid content and lipid indices of bivalves are highly dependent on the geographical region and bivalves. In general, global warming has the largest negative impact on the lipid content and indices of temperate bivalves, including decreasing the PUFA/SFA, EPA + DHA and n-3/n-6. However, global warming has a much smaller negative impact on lipid content and lipid indices in other regions. The declines of aragonite saturation state in seawater promotes the accumulation of lipid content in tropical and subtropical bivalves, but it compromised the PUFA/SFA, EPA + DHA and n-3/n-6 of bivalves in all regions. The findings of this study not only fill the knowledge gap of the impact of climate change on the lipid nutritional quality of bivalves, but also provide guidance for the establishment of bivalve aquaculture and fisheries management plans to mitigate the impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37554792, year = {2023}, author = {Chuko, FW and Abdissa, AG}, title = {Impact of land-use dynamics and climate change scenarios on Groundwater recharge in the case of Anger watershed, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {e18467}, pmid = {37554792}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {An assessment of land use dynamics and climate variability impacts on hydrological processes is vital and a prerequisite for effective water resources management. This study aimed to quantify the effect of land-use changes and long-term climate variability on the Anger watershed's annual groundwater recharge, which covers a total drainage area of 7717 km[2]. The WetSpass (Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants, and Atmosphere under quasi-Steady State) model was used to investigate the impact of land cover and climate variability on groundwater. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of the climate variables in the watershed. Input data for the model, such as land use, hydro-meteorological data, soil texture, topography, and groundwater elevation parameters, were prepared in the form of gridded maps with a 30 m resolution. The model results indicate that land-use change and climate variability considerably impact distributed groundwater recharges. Groundwater recharge decreased with land use in 2000 and 2019, respectively, as compared to baseline land usage (1985). The study also demonstrates how the anticipated future combination of less precipitation and higher temperatures has a detrimental effect on the watershed's annual average groundwater recharge. Future rising temperatures and reduced precipitation are projected to result in an average annual groundwater recharge showing significant decreases in 2050, 2080, and 2110, respectively, according to scenario-based models. The result has provided valuable information on the management and response of groundwater recharge to climate and land-use changes, particularly for the Anger watershed and for the total country as well.}, }
@article {pmid37554564, year = {2023}, author = {Adão, F and Campos, JC and Santos, JA and Malheiro, AC and Fraga, H}, title = {Corrigendum: Relocation of bioclimatic suitability of Portuguese grapevine varieties under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1232948}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2023.1232948}, pmid = {37554564}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2023.974020.].}, }
@article {pmid37551770, year = {2023}, author = {Karuno, AP and Mi, X and Chen, Y and Zou, DH and Gao, W and Zhang, BL and Xu, W and Jin, JQ and Shen, WJ and Huang, S and Zhou, WW and Che, J}, title = {Impacts of climate change on herpetofauna diversity in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {37}, number = {6}, pages = {e14155}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.14155}, pmid = {37551770}, issn = {1523-1739}, support = {XDA20050201//The Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 2019QZKK0501//The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)/ ; ZL202203601//Survey of Wildlife Resources in Key Areas of Tibet/ ; //China's Biodiversity Observation Network (Sino-BON)/ ; //The Animal Branch of the Germplasm Bank of Wild Species, Chinese Academy of Sciences (the Large Research Infrastructure Funding)/ ; }, mesh = {Tibet ; *Ecosystem ; Phylogeny ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Although numerous studies on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity have been published, only a handful are focused on the intraspecific level or consider population-level models (separate models per population). We endeavored to fill this knowledge gap relative to the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau (QTP) by combining species distribution modeling (SDMs) with population genetics (i.e., population-level models) and phylogenetic methods (i.e., phylogenetic tree reconstruction and phylogenetic diversity analyses). We applied our models to 11 endemic and widely distributed herpetofauna species inhabiting high elevations in the QTP. We aimed to determine the influence of environmental heterogeneity on species' responses to climate change, the magnitude of climate-change impacts on intraspecific diversity, and the relationship between species range loss and intraspecific diversity losses under 2 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and 3 future periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s). The effects of global climatic change were more pronounced at the intraspecific level (22% of haplotypes lost and 36% of populations lost) than the morphospecies level in the SSP585 climate change scenario. Maintenance of genetic diversity was in general determined by a combination of factors including range changes, species genetic structure, and the part of the range predicted to be lost. This is owing to the fact that the loss and survival of populations were observed in species irrespective of the predicted range changes (contraction or expansion). In the southeast (mountainous regions), climate change had less of an effect on range size (>100% in 3 species) than in central and northern QTP plateau regions (range size <100% in all species). This may be attributed to environmental heterogeneity, which provided pockets of suitable climate in the southeast, whereas ecosystems in the north and central regions were homogeneous. Generally, our results imply that mountainous regions with high environmental heterogeneity and high genetic diversity may buffer the adverse impacts of climate change on species distribution and intraspecific diversity. Therefore, genetic structure and characteristics of the ecosystem may be crucial for conservation under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37550564, year = {2023}, author = {Masoudi, M and Asrari, E}, title = {Hazard assessment of global warming around the world using GIS.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {9}, pages = {1025}, pmid = {37550564}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Geographic Information Systems ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming is among the important environmental problems of the earth. The present research aims to study temperature variations around the world. For this purpose, the monthly temperature data of 178 points from the NOAA site were studied from 1950 to 2019. In this study, the temperature changes were investigated in terms of its increase, decrease, and significance level by the Mann-Kendall method. Geographic Information System (GIS) and interpolation methods were used to determine the changes in temperature in global warming maps. According to the obtained results, except for 3.8% of the designated area, other parts of the world show change toward warmer conditions. Overall, the world's land temperature has increased by 1.08℃ during the study period. Also, about 85% of the designated area shows moderate and severe hazardous conditions in terms of global warming. The spatial analysis showed higher change and hazardous conditions for global warming in mid-longitude and high-latitude close to both poles.}, }
@article {pmid37549638, year = {2023}, author = {Eccles, R and Zhang, H and Hamilton, D and Trancoso, R and Syktus, J}, title = {Impacts of climate change on nutrient and sediment loads from a subtropical catchment.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {345}, number = {}, pages = {118738}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118738}, pmid = {37549638}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Water Quality ; Soil ; Australia ; Rivers ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Nutrients ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to significantly alter hydrological cycles across the world, affecting runoff, streamflow, and pollutant loads from diffuse sources. The objectives of this study were to examine the impacts of climate change on streamflow, total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended sediment (TSS) loads in the subtropical Logan-Albert catchment, Queensland, Australia. We calibrated the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) against event monitoring data in the Logan and Albert rivers, respectively. Hydrological and water quality effects of an ensemble of 11 dynamically downscaled high-resolution climate models were assessed with SWAT under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 - RCP8.5) and intermediate (RCP4.5) emission scenarios. Streamflow decreased most in winter and spring and decreased least in summer. This followed the predicted seasonal changes for precipitation, although decreases tended to be amplified due to increasing evaporative loss. TSS, TN, and TP loads showed a similar pattern to streamflow, with the largest decreases predicted for the dry season under RCP8.5 by the 2080s. Annual TSS load decreased by 34.3 and 54.2%, TN load decreased by 29.8 and 30.5%, and TP load by 24.9 and 4.4% for the Logan and Albert sites, respectively. The results of this study indicate that for subtropical river-estuary systems, climate warming may lead to lower streamflow and contaminant loads, reduced flushing, and greater relative importance of point source loads in urbanising catchments.}, }
@article {pmid37549057, year = {2023}, author = {Tan, HZ and Jansen, JJFJ and Allport, GA and Garg, KM and Chattopadhyay, B and Irestedt, M and Pang, SEH and Chilton, G and Gwee, CY and Rheindt, FE}, title = {Megafaunal extinctions, not climate change, may explain Holocene genetic diversity declines in Numenius shorebirds.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37549057}, issn = {2050-084X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Plant Breeding ; Mammals ; Climate Change ; *Charadriiformes/genetics ; Extinction, Biological ; Genetic Variation ; }, abstract = {Understanding the relative contributions of historical and anthropogenic factors to declines in genetic diversity is important for informing conservation action. Using genome-wide DNA of fresh and historic specimens, including that of two species widely thought to be extinct, we investigated fluctuations in genetic diversity and present the first complete phylogenomic tree for all nine species of the threatened shorebird genus Numenius, known as whimbrels and curlews. Most species faced sharp declines in effective population size, a proxy for genetic diversity, soon after the Last Glacial Maximum (around 20,000 years ago). These declines occurred prior to the Anthropocene and in spite of an increase in the breeding area predicted by environmental niche modeling, suggesting that they were not caused by climatic or recent anthropogenic factors. Crucially, these genetic diversity declines coincide with mass extinctions of mammalian megafauna in the Northern Hemisphere. Among other factors, the demise of ecosystem-engineering megafauna which maintained open habitats may have been detrimental for grassland and tundra-breeding Numenius shorebirds. Our work suggests that the impact of historical factors such as megafaunal extinction may have had wider repercussions on present-day population dynamics of open habitat biota than previously appreciated.}, }
@article {pmid37546513, year = {2023}, author = {Sadeghi, A and Leddin, D and Malekzadeh, R}, title = {Mini Review: The Impact of Climate Change on Gastrointestinal Health.}, journal = {Middle East journal of digestive diseases}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {72-75}, pmid = {37546513}, issn = {2008-5230}, abstract = {Global warming and climate change are important worldwide issues which are a major human health threat. Climate change can affect the gastrointestinal (GI) system in many ways. Increased rainfall events and flooding may be associated with increased GI infections and hepatitis. Climate change could cause changes in gut microbiota, which may impact the pattern of GI diseases. The stress of access to essential needs such as clean water and food, the effects of forced migration, and natural disasters could increase brain-gut axis disorders. The association between air pollution and GI disorders is another challenging issue. There is a lot to do personally and professionally as gastroenterologists regarding climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37546265, year = {2023}, author = {Dong, R and Hua, LM and Hua, R and Ye, GH and Bao, D and Cai, XC and Cai, B and Zhao, XC and Chu, B and Tang, ZS}, title = {Prediction of the potentially suitable areas of Ligularia virgaurea and Ligularia sagitta on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on future climate change using the MaxEnt model.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1193690}, pmid = {37546265}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Ligularia virgaurea and Ligularia sagitta are two species of poisonous plants with strong invasiveness in natural grasslands in China that have caused considerable harm to animal husbandry and the ecological environment. However, little is known about their suitable habitats and the key environmental factors affecting their distribution. Although some studies have reported the distributions of poisonous plants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and predicted their potential distributions at local scales in some regions under climate change, there have been few studies on the widespread distributions of L. virgaurea and L. sagitta. In this study, we recorded 276 and 118 occurrence points of L. virgaurea and L. sagitta on the QTP using GPS, and then used the MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of suitable habitats. Results showed that (1) under current climate conditions, L. virgaurea and L. sagitta are mainly distributed in southern Gansu, eastern Qinghai, northwestern Sichuan, eastern Tibet, and southwestern Yunnan, accounting for approximately 34.9% and 39.8% of the total area of the QTP, respectively; (2) the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for L. virgaurea and L. sagitta are the Human Footprint Index (52.8%, 42.2%), elevation (11%, 4.4%), soil total nitrogen (18.9%, 4.2%), and precipitation seasonality (5.1%, 7.3%); and (3) in the future, in the 2050s and 2070s, the area of habitat of intermediate suitability for L. virgaurea will spread considerably in northwest Sichuan, while that of high suitability for L. sagitta will spread to eastern Tibet and western Sichuan.}, }
@article {pmid37544026, year = {2023}, author = {Zheng, Y and Tang, J and Huang, F}, title = {The impact of industrial structure adjustment on the spatial industrial linkage of carbon emission: From the perspective of climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {345}, number = {}, pages = {118620}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118620}, pmid = {37544026}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Carbon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Industry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; Economic Development ; }, abstract = {Industrial structure adjustment is an effective way to reduce carbon emissions. When adjusting the industrial structure, changes in the input and output of industrial sectors in one region may cause changes in industrial sectors of other regions, resulting in inter-regional industrial linkages. What is the impact of industrial structure adjustment on the linkages, and how does it impact climate change? The modified gravity model combines the influence and inductive coefficients to build the carbon emission industrial spatial linkage network (ISL) using social network analysis (SNA) in this work with the data of China's 2008-2019 provincial carbon emissions. The impact of industrial structure adjustment on carbon emission industrial spatial linkage network and its effect on climate change mitigation are explored with the help of the STIRPAT model and quality assurance procedure (QAP). The results of this study are as follows: (1) The provincial carbon emissions under industrial spatial linkages show significant network characteristics, the network density increased from 0.1437 in 2008 to 0.323 in 2019. (2) There is a significant spatial spillover effect in the industrial spatial linkage network (2019) centered on Shandong and Jiangsu. The provinces can be divided into 4 blocks, which play different roles in the network. (3) The industrial structure upgrading can significantly promote the carbon emission industrial linkage network and mitigate climate change. (4) The industrial structure rationalization can promote the development of the network and mitigate climate change in the early and late development stages of carbon emissions industrial linkage. In addition, it is necessary for the government to pay more attention to the development level of the carbon emission spatial industrial linkage network when implementing industrial structure adjustment in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37543627, year = {2023}, author = {Tian, Y and Fleitmann, D and Zhang, Q and Sha, L and Wassenburg, JA and Axelsson, J and Zhang, H and Li, X and Hu, J and Li, H and Zhao, L and Cai, Y and Ning, Y and Cheng, H}, title = {Holocene climate change in southern Oman deciphered by speleothem records and climate model simulations.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {4718}, pmid = {37543627}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {41888101//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 42150710534//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 4197020225//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 2013-06476//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det (Swedish Research Council)/ ; 2017-04232//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det (Swedish Research Council)/ ; }, abstract = {Qunf Cave oxygen isotope (δ[18]Oc) record from southern Oman is one of the most significant of few Holocene Indian summer monsoon cave records. However, the interpretation of the Qunf δ[18]Oc remains in dispute. Here we provide a multi-proxy record from Qunf Cave and climate model simulations to reconstruct the Holocene local and regional hydroclimate changes. The results indicate that besides the Indian summer monsoon, the North African summer monsoon also contributes water vapor to southern Oman during the early to middle Holocene. In principle, Qunf δ[18]Oc values reflect integrated oxygen-isotope fractionations over a broad moisture transport swath from moisture sources to the cave site, rather than local precipitation amount alone, and thus the Qunf δ[18]Oc record characterizes primary changes in the Afro-Asian monsoon regime across the Holocene. In contrast, local climate proxies appear to suggest an overall slightly increased or unchanged wetness over the Holocene at the cave site.}, }
@article {pmid37543339, year = {2023}, author = {Lincoln, S and Chowdhury, P and Posen, PE and Robin, RS and Ramachandran, P and Ajith, N and Harrod, O and Hoehn, D and Harrod, R and Townhill, BL}, title = {Interaction of climate change and marine pollution in Southern India: Implications for coastal zone management practices and policies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {902}, number = {}, pages = {166061}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166061}, pmid = {37543339}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and marine litter are inextricably linked, and their interaction manifests differently depending on the specific environmental and biological characteristics, and other human activities taking place. The negative impacts resulting from those synergistic interactions are threatening coastal and marine ecosystems and the many goods and services they provide. This is particularly pervasive in the coastal zone of the Indian subcontinent. India is already experiencing severe climate change impacts, which are projected to worsen in the future. At the same time, the country is gripped by a litter crisis that is overwhelming authorities and communities and hindering the country's sustainable development goals. The coastal environment and communities of the southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While these state governments and authorities are stepping up efforts to improve the management of their coastal zones, the scale and severity of these issues are mounting. Here we review the combined effects of climate change and marine litter pollution in Southern India, focusing on the Gulf of Mannar Reserve in Tamil Nadu and the Malabar Coast in Kerala. Finally, we discuss effective management options that could help improve resilience and sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid37543335, year = {2023}, author = {Kozari, A and Voutsa, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on formation of nitrogenous disinfection by products. Part I: Sea level rise and flooding events.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {901}, number = {}, pages = {166041}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166041}, pmid = {37543335}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change causes heavy rainfall incidents and sea level rise, which have serious impact on the availability and quality of water resources. These extreme phenomena lead to the rise of external and internal precursors in water reservoirs, and consequently affect the formation of disinfection by-products (DBPs). The aim of this study was to investigate the formation of nitrogenous_DBPs (N-DBPs) under extreme conditions caused by climate change. For this reason, two scenarios were adapted: a) sea level rise leading to increase of water salinity and b) heavy rainfall incidents leading to flooding events. The target-compounds were haloacetonitriles (HANs), haloacetamides (HAcAms) and halonitromethane (TCNM). Chlorination and chloramination were employed as disinfection processes under different doses (5 and 10 mg/L) and contact times (24 and 72 h). The results showed enhancement on the formation of N-DBPs and changes in their profile. Sea level rise scenario led to elevated concentrations of brominated species (maximum concentration of dibromoacetonitrile 23 μg/L and maximum concentration of bromoacetamide 57 μg/L), while flooding events scenario led to extended formation of chloroacetamide and bromochloroacetonitrile up to 58 μg/L and 40 μg/L, respectively. At the same time, changes in cytotoxicity and genotoxicity of the samples were observed.}, }
@article {pmid37542082, year = {2023}, author = {Borges, CE and Von Dos Santos Veloso, R and da Conceição, CA and Mendes, DS and Ramirez-Cabral, NY and Shabani, F and Shafapourtehrany, M and Nery, MC and da Silva, RS}, title = {Forecasting Brassica napus production under climate change with a mechanistic species distribution model.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {12656}, pmid = {37542082}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Brassica napus ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Brazil ; }, abstract = {Brassica napus, a versatile crop with significant socioeconomic importance, serves as a valuable source of nutrition for humans and animals while also being utilized in biodiesel production. The expansion potential of B. napus is profoundly influenced by climatic variations, yet there remains a scarcity of studies investigating the correlation between climatic factors and its distribution. This research employs CLIMEX to identify the current and future ecological niches of B. napus under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, utilizing the Access 1.0 and CNRM-CM5 models for the time frame of 2040-2059. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of parameters was conducted to determine the primary climatic factors affecting B. napus distribution and model responsiveness. The simulated outcomes demonstrate a satisfactory alignment with the known current distribution of B. napus, with 98% of occurrence records classified as having medium to high climatic suitability. However, the species displays high sensitivity to thermal parameters, thereby suggesting that temperature increases could trigger shifts in suitable and unsuitable areas for B. napus, impacting regions such as Canada, China, Brazil, and the United States.}, }
@article {pmid37541503, year = {2023}, author = {Halloran, LJS and Millwater, J and Hunkeler, D and Arnoux, M}, title = {Climate change impacts on groundwater discharge-dependent streamflow in an alpine headwater catchment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {902}, number = {}, pages = {166009}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166009}, pmid = {37541503}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change will have-and, in much of the world, is already having-a pronounced impact on alpine water resources. A deeper understanding of the future role of groundwater in alpine catchments, including quantification of climate change impacts on groundwater discharge, is vital for understanding the future of alpine water resources as a whole. Here, we develop and couple a geophysics-informed groundwater model with a net recharge model to investigate the impacts of climate change on a nival-regime alpine headwater catchment with significant unconfined Quaternary aquifer coverage. Flow in the groundwater-fed stream at the catchment outlet is analysed to determine changes in its annual dynamics. Comparing the periods 2020-2040 and 2080-2100 under ten RCP-8.5 climate models, we find a 35 % decrease in mean groundwater discharge and an increase in no-flow periods from ~0 % to 4.3 %. We also observe significant changes to the timing of monthly mean discharge maxima and minima, which shift ~1 month and ~5 months earlier, respectively. While groundwater has the potential to dampen the impacts of snow cover loss, currently perennial nival-regime alpine streams could be at risk of becoming intermittent by the end of the century. Our study underscores the increasingly critical role that groundwater will play in alpine catchments and emphasizes the need for quantitative understanding of the limits to its buffering capacity.}, }
@article {pmid37541410, year = {2023}, author = {Yang, H and Zhang, Z and Liu, X and Jing, P}, title = {Monthly-scale hydro-climatic forecasting and climate change impact evaluation based on a novel DCNN-Transformer network.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {236}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {116821}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.116821}, pmid = {37541410}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {Climate change has emerged as one of the foremost global challenges confronting humanity today, leading to a heightened frequency and intensity of extreme weather phenomena, including droughts, floods, and erratic rainfall patterns. Accurately predicting changes in runoff patterns under future climate conditions holds significant importance for effective regional water resource planning and management. Recent research on runoff forecast has centered on optimizing hyperparameters of ELM, RNN, LSTM models using PSO, GWO, SSA, and other algorithms. Additionally, key features are extracted through input variable decomposition and preprocessing methods like EMD, EEMD, and VMD. However, these approaches have difficulties in extracting the long-term dependencies information of sequence units, parallel computing, and hyperparameter sensitivity. To address these shortcomings, this study proposes a novel end-to-end deep runoff prediction model based on deep convolutional neural network and Transformer (DCTN). The deep convolutional modules of DCTN employs the deep convolutional operation to extract local features of climate data while the Transformer of DCTN makes full use of self-attention to capture the long-term dependencies, which can achieve more accurate runoff predictions. Experiments on historical runoff forecasting at the Shanjiaodi hydrology station in the Dagu River Basin show that the proposed DCTN obtains a notable improvement of approximately 30.9% compared to traditional models. Based on the prediction results of three shared socioeconomic pathways, the potential impacts of climate change on runoff in Dagu River Basin were evaluated using the DCTN model. The results reveal that the likelihood of spring floods is substantially amplified in the mid-century and late-century, while the probability of extreme summer runoff diminishes. This study advances the understanding of runoff prediction and its implications under changing climate scenarios, paving the way for more informed decision-making and effective water resource management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid37541266, year = {2023}, author = {The Lancet Oncology, }, title = {Climate change and skin cancer: urgent call for action.}, journal = {The Lancet. Oncology}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {823}, doi = {10.1016/S1470-2045(23)00348-0}, pmid = {37541266}, issn = {1474-5488}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid37540062, year = {2023}, author = {Korabik, AR and Winquist, T and Grosholz, ED and Hollarsmith, JA}, title = {Examining the reproductive success of bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana, Phaeophyceae, Laminariales) in climate change conditions.}, journal = {Journal of phycology}, volume = {59}, number = {5}, pages = {989-1004}, doi = {10.1111/jpy.13368}, pmid = {37540062}, issn = {1529-8817}, mesh = {Humans ; *Kelp ; Ecosystem ; Seawater ; Climate Change ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Phaeophyceae ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems in many ways, including raising temperatures and leading to ocean acidification. From 2014 to 2016, an extensive marine heat wave extended along the west coast of North America and had devastating effects on numerous species, including bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana). Bull kelp is an important foundation species in coastal ecosystems and can be affected by marine heat waves and ocean acidification; however, the impacts have not been investigated on sensitive early life stages. To determine the effects of changing temperatures and carbonate levels on Northern California's bull kelp populations, we collected sporophylls from mature bull kelp individuals in Point Arena, CA. At the Bodega Marine Laboratory, we released spores from field-collected bull kelp, and cultured microscopic gametophytes in a common garden experiment with a fully factorial design crossing modern conditions (11.63 ± 0.54°C and pH 7.93 ± 0.26) with observed extreme climate conditions (15.56 ± 0.83°C and 7.64 ± 0.32 pH). Our results indicated that both increased temperature and decreased pH influenced growth and egg production of bull kelp microscopic stages. Increased temperature resulted in decreased gametophyte survival and offspring production. In contrast, decreased pH had less of an effect but resulted in increased gametophyte survival and offspring production. Additionally, increased temperature significantly impacted reproductive timing by causing female gametophytes to produce offspring earlier than under ambient temperature conditions. Our findings can inform better predictions of the impacts of climate change on coastal ecosystems and provide key insights into environmental dynamics regulating the bull kelp lifecycle.}, }
@article {pmid37539305, year = {2023}, author = {Petriashvili, A and Mach, J and Štěbeták, M and Prášilová, M and Svoboda, R and Navrátilová, M and Beranová, M and Veselá, K and Hofman, V and Němec, O}, title = {The impact of climate change on the sustainability of wine production and the structure of its consumption in Czechia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {e17882}, pmid = {37539305}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Vine-growing for the production of wine constitutes one of the major areas of agriculture of Czechia, and in recent years it has been qualitatively improved. The purpose of this study is to express the effects of climate change on the structure of wine production and consumption in the Czech Republic in connection with the growing local popularity of white wine consumption. The current consumer preferences of wine consumers in the Czech Republic (characterized by the growing popularity of white wines) are not in line with the effects of future climate change associated with the assumption of growing vine varieties suitable for the production of red wines. The methodology of the following study is based especially on the evaluation of statistical data about vine growing and wine production of Czechia and a research investigation about consumers' preferences in the consumption of wines in Czechia. The effect of long-term climate change in the region are likely to lead to an increase in growing areas, especially in favour of vine varieties suitable for the production of red or rosé wines. The harvest of wine grapes, the hectare yield of grapes and the production of wine in Czechia do not show a significant development trend in the long-term time series of 2000-2019. Thus, in the future, the development of viticulture in Czechia will be influenced mainly by the location of the planted area of vineyards or the development of consumer habits and preferences.}, }
@article {pmid37538305, year = {2023}, author = {Sarkar, A and Appelbaum, NP and Asaithambi, R and Tran, C and Lin, D and Aggarwal, A and Nguyen, S}, title = {Climate Change as a Social Determinant of Health: An Interactive Case-Based Learning Activity.}, journal = {MedEdPORTAL : the journal of teaching and learning resources}, volume = {19}, number = {}, pages = {11332}, pmid = {37538305}, issn = {2374-8265}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Social Determinants of Health ; Curriculum ; *Education, Medical ; *Students, Medical ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Despite consensus on climate change's impact on humans, medical schools have not widely adopted inclusion of environmental topics into their mandatory curriculum. This educational activity explicitly addresses climate change as one of the environmental determinants of health (EDH).<br><br>METHODS: We developed a required, 1-hour module for all first-year medical students. This interactive, case-based, small-group activity was incorporated into a curriculum within an advising program but could be run independently. Before and after the session, participants completed evaluations assessing knowledge gains and attitude shifts.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 183 first-year students, 155 completed both pre- and postmodule surveys. Participants' rating increased on the postmodule survey item "priority should be given to the discussion of EDH in medical education." The Wilcoxon signed rank test determined this difference in priority was statistically significant (p < .001). Reported strengths of this activity included the cases, informative content on EDH, the video, the discussion, and highlighted EDH resources. Suggested areas for improvement included more information on how to apply concepts to clinical contexts, guidance on how to engage in EDH concepts, and more discussion time. As a result of the module, students planned to engage in recycling, reduced consumption, advocacy, and changes to mode of transportation.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate change remains the greatest global threat to human health, and future physicians must be equipped to educate patients and policymakers on the harms of environmental hazards. This brief yet effective module offers one approach to incorporating this topic into medical school curricula.}, }
@article {pmid37537765, year = {2023}, author = {Nation, N and Welker, C and Stolz, J and French, M}, title = {How exercises help US communities meet the challenge of climate change: The FEMA National Exercise Division's innovative exercise tools and resources.}, journal = {Journal of business continuity &amp; emergency planning}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {16-30}, pmid = {37537765}, issn = {1749-9216}, mesh = {*Disaster Planning ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {The US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Exercise Division (NED) leads the nation in validating the capabilities of the whole community in support of the National Preparedness System. In response to the increased threat of climate change, the NED has developed new resources to help communities increase preparedness for severe weather and natural disasters in the long term. This paper provides an overview of two such resources to help communities identify and prepare for climate-related events: the Long-Term Community Resilience Exercise Resource Guide (ERG) and the Climate Adaptation Exercise Series (CAES). These resources help communities develop and conduct exercises to increase their climate literacy, develop climate adaptation and mitigation plans, and leverage data on future climate conditions to inform decision-making. Exercises provide an opportunity for communities to build resilience by discussing and better understanding climate change and to plan for, adapt to, and mitigate the associated risks and hazards. The ERG provides guidance, tools and resources, and the CAES provides a consistent framework that FEMA regions can tailor to address unique, region-specific climate concerns. The results collected from these exercises, in turn, identify strengths to leverage and areas to improve, informing plans of action for a path forward for the next 20, 30 and 50 years.}, }
@article {pmid37536724, year = {2023}, author = {Bashir, A}, title = {How climate change is changing dengue fever.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {382}, number = {}, pages = {1690}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.p1690}, pmid = {37536724}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Dengue/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Incidence ; }, }
@article {pmid37536587, year = {2023}, author = {Anamaghi, S and Behboudian, M and Mahjouri, N and Kerachian, R}, title = {A resilience-based framework for evaluating the carrying capacity of water and environmental resources under the climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {902}, number = {}, pages = {165986}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165986}, pmid = {37536587}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This paper proposes a new framework for evaluating water and environmental resources carrying capacity (WERCC) based on the concept of resilience under uncertainty. First, several quantitative and qualitative criteria based on the seven principles of resilience and the Pressure-Support-State (PSS) framework are defined to incorporate the positive and negative impacts of human interventions and natural factors on water resources and the environment. The resilience principles include redundancy and diversity, managing connectivity, managing slow variables and their feedbacks, fostering complex adaptive system (CAS) thinking, encouraging learning, broadening participation, and promoting polycentric governance. After evaluating the values of the criteria and sub-criteria using a two-point evidential reasoning (TPER) approach and considering the existing uncertainties, the monthly time series of WERCC with uncertainty bands are calculated. The proposed methodology is then used to evaluate the WERCC in the Zarrinehrud river basin in Iran for a given historical period (1991-2012), and the period of 2020 to 2049 under different climate change scenarios. The results of this analysis demonstrate the inadequacy of the WERCC during the historical period and indicate that the continuation of the existing trend (base scenario, MSC0) will cause many environmental issues. Hence, several water and environmental resources management (WERM) scenarios are proposed to enhance the WERCC. These scenarios are evaluated using a multi-agent-multi-criteria decision-making method to identify the preferable WERM scenario (MSC12356). This scenario, which encompasses various projects (e.g., development and enhancement of water transfer networks and upgrading cultivation methods), improves the average value of the WERCC by 26 %. The results of the proposed methodology are compared with those of a traditional decision-making method, which considers three criteria of average WERCC, the pressure-support index, and the implementation cost. The results demonstrate that the multi-agent-multi-criteria decision-making approach provides a more cost-effective management scenario, with 30 % less cost, leading to only 3 % less carrying capacity.}, }
@article {pmid37534912, year = {2023}, author = {Taddonio, KN and Dreyfus, GB and Andersen, SO and Ravishankara, AR}, title = {Trifluoroiodomethane as a Precursor to High Global Warming Potential Climate Pollutants: Could the Transformation of Climatically Benign CF3I into Potent Greenhouse Gases Significantly Increase Refrigerant-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {57}, number = {32}, pages = {11731-11737}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.3c01079}, pmid = {37534912}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Global Warming ; *Environmental Pollutants ; *Greenhouse Gases ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; Rwanda ; }, abstract = {The transition away from the production and consumption of high global warming potential (GWP) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) under the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) has prompted air conditioning, refrigeration, and heat pump equipment manufacturers to seek alternative refrigerants with lower direct climate impacts. Additional factors affecting alternative refrigerant choice include safety (i.e., flammability and toxicity), environmental, and thermodynamic constraints. At the same time, manufacturers are incentivized to seek refrigerants with higher energy efficiency, which saves on electricity costs and reduces indirect greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation. The life cycle climate performance (LCCP) metric is commonly used to assess the combined direct and indirect climate impacts of refrigerant-use equipment. Here, we consider an additional impact on climate performance: the degradation of refrigerant in equipment, i.e., the direct climate impacts of high-GWP byproducts that can form as the result of adding trifluoroiodomethane (CF3I) to refrigerant blends to reduce flammability. Such a production of high-GWP gases could change the acceptability of CF3I-containing refrigerants. Further, it highlights the need to understand refrigerant degradation within equipment in calculations of the environmental acceptability of new cooling technology.}, }
@article {pmid37533987, year = {2023}, author = {Rao, P and Tassinari, P and Torreggiani, D}, title = {Exploring the land-use urban heat island nexus under climate change conditions using machine learning approach: A spatio-temporal analysis of remotely sensed data.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {e18423}, pmid = {37533987}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Urbanization strongly correlates with land use land cover (LULC) dynamics, which further links to changes in land surface temperature (LST) &amp; urban heat island (UHI) intensity. Each LULC type influences UHI differently with changing climate, therefore knowing this impact &amp; connection is critical. To understand such relations, long temporal studies using remote sensing data play promising role by analysing the trend with continuity over vast area. Therefore, this study is aimed at machine learning centred spatio-temporal analysis of LST and land use indices to identify their intra-urban interaction during 1991-2021 (summer) in Imola city (specifically representing small urban environment) using Landsat-5/8 imageries. It was found that LST in 2021 increased by 38.36% from 1991, whereas average Normalised Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) increased by 43.75%, associating with increased thermal stress area evaluated using ecological evaluation index. Major LULC transformations included green area into agricultural arable-land and built-up. Finally, the modelled output shows that built-up &amp; vegetation index have strongly impacted LST. This study, help to understand the relative impact of land-use dynamics on LST at intra-urban level specifically with respect to the small urban settings. Further assisting in designing and regenerating urban contexts with stable configuration, considering sustainability and liveable climate, for benefit of health of public and fragile population in particular.}, }
@article {pmid37533818, year = {2023}, author = {Marshall, DJ and Mustapha, N and Monaco, CJ}, title = {Conservation of thermal physiology in tropical intertidal snails following an evolutionary transition to a cooler ecosystem: climate change implications.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {coad056}, pmid = {37533818}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Predictions for animal responses to climate warming usually assume that thermal physiology is adapted to present-day environments, and seldom consider the influence of evolutionary background. Little is known about the conservation of warm-adapted physiology following an evolutionary transition to a cooler environment. We used cardiac thermal performance curves (cTPCs) of six neritid gastropod species to study physiological thermal trait variation associated with a lineage transition from warmer rocky shores to cooler mangroves. We distinguished between functional thermal performance traits, related to energy homeostasis (slope gradient, slope curvature, HRmax, maximum cardiac activity and Topt, the temperature that maximizes cardiac activity) and a trait that limits performance (ULT, the upper lethal temperature). Considering the theory of optimal thermal performance, we predicted that the functional traits should be under greater selective pressure to change directionally and in magnitude than the thermal limit, which is redundant in the cooler environment. We found little variation in all traits across species, habitats and ecosystems, despite a ~20°C reduction in maximum habitat temperature in the mangrove species over 50 million years. While slope gradient was significantly lowered in the mangrove species, the effect difference was negated by greater thermal plasticity in the rocky shore species. ULT showed the least variation and suggested thermal specialization in the warmest habitat studied. The observed muted variation of the functional traits among the species may be explained by their limited role in energy acquisition and rather their association with heat tolerance adaptation, which is redundant in the mangrove species. These findings have implications for the conservation of habitat of intertidal gastropods that transition to cooler environments. Furthermore, they highlight the significance of evolutionary history and physiological conservation when predicting species responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37532040, year = {2023}, author = {Wen, P and Wei, Q and Zheng, L and Rui, Z and Niu, M and Gao, C and Guan, X and Wang, T and Xiong, S}, title = {Adaptability of wheat to future climate change: Effects of sowing date and sowing rate on wheat yield in three wheat production regions in the North China Plain.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {901}, number = {}, pages = {165906}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165906}, pmid = {37532040}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Adjusting sowing dates and sowing rates is a key adaptation strategy for adapting to future climate change, and maintaining wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP). However, it is still unclear whether the current sowing date and sowing rate can adapt to future climate change, and how to adjust the sowing date and sowing rate to compensate for the adverse effects of climate change on wheat yields. This study predicts the adaptability of agricultural management practices like sowing dates and sowing rates, to future climate change in three wheat regions by referring to four global climate models (GCMs) and AquaCrop model. Population structure and yield were maximized for sowing dates from Oct.11-20 and sowing rates of 10-13 kg/667 m[2] (or 13-16 kg/667 m[2]) in 2016-2021. Three wheat regions were expected to show a warming trend, while the total precipitation has large spatial fluctuations under both representative concentration pathways (rcp) scenarios in the 2022-2100. AquaCrop model could simulate yield with a good precision (RMSE≤1043.7 kg/ha). Compared to the average yield of the baseline period (2016-2021), in the 2022-2100, the average predicted wheat yields of three wheat regions simulated based on the current optimal sowing date and sowing rate decreased by 5.45 % ∼ 11.05 % (9.35 % ∼ 16.84 %) and 2.57 % ∼ 10.95 % (6.97 % ∼ 12.75 %) under the rcp4.5 (rcp8.5), respectively. Average wheat yield losses were effectively compensated when the combinations of Oct.15 and 14 kg/667 m[2] for the dryland wheat, Oct.21 and 14 kg/667 m[2] for the irrigated wheat, and Oct.21 and 13 kg/667 m[2] for the high-yield-rainfed wheat were applied under both rcp scenarios, respectively, with predicted yield losses of -4.17 %, -3.50 %, and - 3.25 %. Thus, adjusting sowing dates and sowing rates are viable options to effectively address the adverse effects of future global climate change, thereby guaranteeing food security in the NCP.}, }
@article {pmid37531351, year = {2023}, author = {Petersen, BC}, title = {An economic model and evidence of the evolution of human intelligence in the Middle Pleistocene: Climate change and assortative mating.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {8}, pages = {e0287964}, pmid = {37531351}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Child ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Biological Evolution ; *Hominidae ; Skull ; Fossils ; Models, Economic ; }, abstract = {A main objective of this paper is to provide the first model of how climate change, working through sexual selection, could have led to dramatic increases in hominin brain size, and presumably intelligence, in the Middle Pleistocene. The model is built using core elements from the field of family economics, including assortative mating and specialization and complementarities between mates. The main assumptions are that family public goods (e.g., conversation, shelter, fire) were particularly cognitively intensive to produce and became increasingly important for child survival during glacial phases. Intermediate climates (e.g., not the depths of severe glacial phases) create the largest gains from specialization, encouraging negative assortative mating. In contrast, severe glacial phases encourage positive assortative mating because of the rising importance of family public goods. One testable hypothesis is that absence of severe glacial phases should have led to stasis in brain size. Two other testable hypotheses are that severe glacial phases should have led to speciation events, as well as increases in brain size. The evidence shows that there was a million-year stasis in cranial size prior to the start of the severe glacial phases. This stasis is broken by a speciation event (Homo heidelbergensis), with the oldest fossil evidence dated near the close of the first severe glacial phase. In the next 300 kyr, there are two additional severe glacial phases, accompanied by considerable increases in cranial capacity. The last speciation event is Homo sapiens, with the earliest fossils dated near the end of the last of these two glacial phases.}, }
@article {pmid37531232, year = {2023}, author = {Riaz, MMA and Nayyer, B and Lal, A and Nawaz, FA and Zil-E-Ali, A}, title = {Climate change and mental health: a call to action to include mental health and psychosocial support services (MHPSS) in the Pakistan flood crisis.}, journal = {BJPsych international}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {56-58}, pmid = {37531232}, issn = {2056-4740}, abstract = {The recent flood crisis in Pakistan has had significant impacts on the physical, mental and socioeconomic fabric of almost 33 million people. Floods in Pakistan are leading to a range of negative impacts on health and major disruptions to healthcare services. The lack of mental health and psychosocial support services (MHPSS) is a significant concern in rural areas of Pakistan in providing support to communities affected by floods. It is important for the government and mental health policymakers to work with academic coalitions and non-governmental organisations to replicate low-resource MHPSS models that will develop and advocate for effective, gender-sensitive mental healthcare throughout the country.}, }
@article {pmid37529684, year = {2023}, author = {Carlson, DF and Akbulut, S and Rasmussen, JF and Hestbech, CS and Andersen, MH and Melvad, C}, title = {Compact and modular autonomous surface vehicle for water research: The Naval Operating Research Drone Assessing Climate Change (NORDACC).}, journal = {HardwareX}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {e00453}, pmid = {37529684}, issn = {2468-0672}, abstract = {Research, monitoring, and management of marine and aquatic ecosystems often require surface water samples to measure biogeochemical and optical parameters. Traditional sampling with a boat and several personnel onboard can be labor-intensive and safety requirements limit sampling activities in high-risk environments. This paper describes the Naval Operating Research Drone Assessing Climate Change (NORDACC). NORDACC is an open source, light-weight, and portable autonomous surface vehicle that can acquire surface water samples while also measuring sea surface temperature and salinity for the duration of its deployment. NORDACC is ideal for operations in remote areas where resources and personnel are limited. Two sample bottles, each one liter in volume, can be filled, either at pre-programmed sampling stations or manually, using the remote control. A trimaran design provides buoyancy and stability, with hulls constructed of vacuum-formed acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plastic. NORDACC can navigate autonomously between waypoints and features first person view capabilities for enhanced situational awareness. NORDACC's performance was validated in Aarhus Bay, Denmark, collecting multiple surface water samples in winds in excess of 8 ms[-1] and steep, choppy waves.}, }
@article {pmid37528986, year = {2023}, author = {Poni, S and Frioni, T and Gatti, M}, title = {Summer pruning in Mediterranean vineyards: is climate change affecting its perception, modalities, and effects?.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1227628}, pmid = {37528986}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Summer pruning encompasses a series of operations typically performed on the grapevine during the growing season. This review provides an update on the research conducted over the last 20 years on the modalities and strategies of main summer pruning operations, which include shoot positioning and thinning, shoot trimming, leaf removal, and cluster thinning, with a special focus on their adaptation to climate change occurring in Mediterranean areas. Three main novelties emerged from the survey. First, due to a common need to shelter clusters against overheating and sunburn-related damages, shoot thinning and leaf removal are practices that are now being applied in a much more cautious and conservative manner. Second, the meaning of summer pruning is evolving because operations are being used as precious tools to direct ripening toward a desired direction rather than being received passively. Third, some operations, such as leaf removal, have disclosed very high plasticity, which means that, depending on the timing and modalities of the intervention, yield can be either increased or decreased and ripening anticipated or postponed. In an era where economic and environmental sustainability have to find a good compromise, cluster thinning is increasingly being depicted as an extraordinary operation that should be left to occasional occurrences of overcropping. Moreover, summer pruning is a tool through which growers can, to an extent, exploit the potentialities offered by climate change. For instance, the crop-forcing technique, under the different configurations of single and double cropping within the same season, has been trialed promisingly in several regions and cultivars. The principle of forcing is to unlock the dormant bud during the first year by removing at least the young organs present on the shoot within a time window between the end of the flowering and pea-size stages. In particular, when it is applied in a double-cropping mode, the preliminary results related to Pinot noir, Grenache, Tempranillo, and Maturana tinta indicate that two harvests separated by 30-50 days can be obtained, with the latter having superior quality in terms of a lower level of pH and higher levels of acidity, anthocyanins, and phenolics.}, }
@article {pmid37528202, year = {2023}, author = {Reinert, M}, title = {What whale falls can teach us about biodiversity and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37528202}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37528169, year = {2023}, author = {Homer, J}, title = {Power companies must adapt to climate change now. Here's how researchers can help.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {620}, number = {7972}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-02443-6}, pmid = {37528169}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid37525268, year = {2023}, author = {, }, title = {Diabetes and climate change: breaking the vicious cycle.}, journal = {BMC medicine}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {281}, doi = {10.1186/s12916-023-02980-x}, pmid = {37525268}, issn = {1741-7015}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid37525059, year = {2024}, author = {Ni, M and Vellend, M}, title = {Soil properties constrain predicted poleward migration of plants under climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {241}, number = {1}, pages = {131-141}, doi = {10.1111/nph.19164}, pmid = {37525059}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {//China Scholarship Council/ ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Soil ; Ecosystem ; Plants ; Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {Many plant species are predicted to migrate poleward in response to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to quantify future suitable habitats, but they often neglect soil properties, despite the importance of soil for plant fitness. As soil properties often change along latitudinal gradients, higher-latitude soils might be more or less suitable than average conditions within the current ranges of species, thereby accelerating or slowing potential poleward migration. In this study, we built three SDMs - one with only climate predictors, one with only soil predictors, and one with both - for each of 1870 plant species in Eastern North America, in order to investigate the relative importance of soil properties in determining plant distributions and poleward shifts under climate change. While climate variables were the most important predictors, soil properties also had a substantial influence on continental-scale plant distributions. Under future climate scenarios, models including soil predicted much smaller northward shifts in distributions than climate-only models (c. 40% reduction). Our findings strongly suggest that high-latitude soils are likely to impede ongoing plant migration, and they highlight the necessity of incorporating soil properties into models and predictions for plant distributions and migration under environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid37524801, year = {2023}, author = {Niec, R and Carvalho, TL and Mucida, D}, title = {Climate change: it's on us too.}, journal = {Nature immunology}, volume = {24}, number = {9}, pages = {1395}, pmid = {37524801}, issn = {1529-2916}, }
@article {pmid37522688, year = {2023}, author = {Ulubay, M and Fidan, U and Ozturk, M}, title = {The decreasing age of menarche in Turkey: global warming, socioeconomic development, and environmental factors.}, journal = {European review for medical and pharmacological sciences}, volume = {27}, number = {14}, pages = {6780-6784}, doi = {10.26355/eurrev_202307_33148}, pmid = {37522688}, issn = {2284-0729}, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; Child ; *Menarche ; Turkey/epidemiology ; *Global Warming ; Retrospective Studies ; Age Factors ; Social Class ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The age at menarche varies over time in line with the development level of society. The aim of the present study was to assess and compare secular trends of the age of menarche in Ankara, Turkey.<br><br>PATIENTS AND METHODS: One thousand thirty-five patients who presented for regular gynecological control were examined retrospectively between 2011 and 2015. The patients were asked when they had experienced their first period. The data were evaluated in 10-year periods (<1964, 1965-1974, 1975-1984, and 1985-2000). The mean age at menarche presents trends that have changed over the years.<br><br>RESULTS: The mean age at menarche decreased from 13.29 years in < 1964 to 13.24 years in 1965-1974, 13.20 years in 1975-1984, and 13.10 years in 1985-2000. When the < 1964 and 1985-2000 groups were compared, there was a two-fold increase in young age (&#x2264; 11 years) at menarche.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is a continuing secular trend (a two-fold increase) in earlier age at menarche (i.e., &#x2264; 11 years). The effects of global warming and rising socioeconomic levels in Turkey may be implicated in the increase in earlier age at menarche.}, }
@article {pmid37521825, year = {2023}, author = {van Westen, RM and Dijkstra, HA and Bloemendaal, N}, title = {Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model.}, journal = {Climate dynamics}, volume = {61}, number = {5-6}, pages = {2269-2284}, pmid = {37521825}, issn = {0930-7575}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases (-45%) in the North Atlantic but increases (+15%) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean's meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3.}, }
@article {pmid37520952, year = {2023}, author = {Assis, DMS and Medeiros-Sarmento, PS and Tavares-Martins, ACC and Godoy, BS}, title = {Are perceptions of climate change in Amazonian coastal communities influenced by socioeconomic and cultural factors?.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {e18392}, pmid = {37520952}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate changes have become undisputed, as have their consequences for global ecosystems and mankind. The coastal areas are among the most affected areas on the planet due to their geographical location. The effects suffered by coastal areas can render the residing populations homeless, as well as compromise the continuity of the history and culture of these environments. The Marine Extractive Reserve of the city of Soure (coastal area of eastern Amazonia) stands out for housing populations that have developed an intimate relationship with nature and have knowledge that can explain people's perception of climate changes. In this context, this study investigated how local residents perceive climate change and its consequences considering different temporal and spatial scales. To this end, questionnaires were developed and applied using a 5-point Likert scale. Our results indicate that perception is shaped by socioeconomic and demographic factors, and that they are perceived on different time scales and geographic space. These findings reflect the awareness-raising efforts of the management body of this Conservation Unit and the local knowledge, derived from the relationship of the residents with the natural environment, which, together, provided the population with assertive information that favor a better understanding of this phenomenon.}, }
@article {pmid37520262, year = {2023}, author = {Hu, J and Feng, Y and Zhong, H and Liu, W and Tian, X and Wang, Y and Tan, T and Hu, Z and Liu, Y}, title = {Impact of climate change on the geographical distribution and niche dynamics of Gastrodia elata.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e15741}, pmid = {37520262}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {*Gastrodia ; Climate Change ; Plant Breeding ; China ; *Plants, Medicinal ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Gastrodia elata is widely used in China as a valuable herbal medicine. Owing to its high medicinal and nutrient value, wild resources of G. elata have been overexploited and its native areas have been severely damaged. Understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution of this endangered species is important for the conservation and sustainable use of G. elata.<br><br>METHODS: We used the optimized maximum entropy model to simulate the potential distribution of G. elata under contemporary and future time periods (1970-2000, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) and different climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Under these conditions, we investigated the key environmental factors influencing the distribution of G. elata as well as the spatial and temporal characteristics of its niche dynamics.<br><br>RESULTS: With high Maxent model accuracy (AUCmean = 0.947 &#xb1;&#xa0;0.012, and the Kappa value is 0.817), our analysis revealed that annual precipitation, altitude, and mean temperature of driest quarter are the most important environmental factors influencing the distribution of G. elata. Under current bioclimatic conditions, the potentially suitable area for G. elata in China is 71.98 &#xd7; 10[4] km[2], while the highly suitable region for G. elata growth is 7.28 &#xd7; 10[4] km[2]. Our models for three future periods under four climate change scenarios indicate that G. elata can maintain stable distributions in southern Shaanxi, southwestern Hubei, and around the Sichuan basin, as these areas are highly suitable for its growth. However, the center of the highly suitable areas of G. elata shift depending on different climatic scenarios. The values of niche overlap for G. elata show a decreasing trend over the forecasted periods, of which the niche overlap under the SSP3-7.0 scenario shows the greatest decrease.<br><br>DISCUSSIONS: Under the condition of global climate change in the future, our study provides basic reference data for the conservation and sustainable utilization of the valuable and endangered medicinal plant G. elata. It is important to carefully choose the protection area of G. elata wild resources according the suitable area conditions modeled. Moreover, these findings will be valuable for providing insights into the breeding and artificial cultivation of this plant, including the selection of suitable areas for planting.}, }
@article {pmid37520165, year = {2023}, author = {Robertson, RD and De Pinto, A and Cenacchi, N}, title = {Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {176}, number = {8}, pages = {108}, pmid = {37520165}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is affected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct influence of climate change on natural ecosystems simultaneously with cropland incursion. We combine a natural vegetation model responsive to climate with a cropland allocation algorithm to assess the relative importance of climate change compared to cropland incursion. Globally, the model indicates that climate change drives larger gains and losses than cropland incursion. For example, in the Amazonian rainforests, more than one sixth of the forest area could be lost due to climate change with cropland playing virtually no role. Our findings suggest that policies to protect specific ecosystems may be undercut by climate change and that localized analyses that fully account for the impacts of a changing climate on natural vegetation and agriculture are necessary to formulate policies that preserve natural ecosystems over the long term.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-023-03584-3.}, }
@article {pmid37517829, year = {2023}, author = {Smirnova, N and Shaver, AC and Mehta, AJ and Philipsborn, R and Scovronick, N}, title = {Climate Change, Air Quality, and Pulmonary Health Disparities.}, journal = {Clinics in chest medicine}, volume = {44}, number = {3}, pages = {489-499}, doi = {10.1016/j.ccm.2023.03.005}, pmid = {37517829}, issn = {1557-8216}, support = {UL1 TR002378/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; T32 HL116271/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Climate change will alter environmental risks that influence pulmonary health, including heat, air pollution, and pollen. These exposures disproportionately burden populations already at risk of ill health, including those at vulnerable life stages, with low socioeconomic status, and systematically targeted by oppressive policies. Climate change can exacerbate existing environmental injustices by affecting future exposure, as well as through differentials in the ability to adapt; this is compounded by disparities in rates of underlying disease and access to health care. Climate change is therefore a dire threat not only to individual and population health but also to health equity.}, }
@article {pmid37517735, year = {2023}, author = {Parth, S and Ankit, Y and Rigterink, S and Mazzini, I and Russell, J and Anoop, A and Waldmann, N}, title = {Investigating the impact of climate change on the lake ecosystem during the late Holocene using a sedimentary record from the southern Arabian Desert, Yemen.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {901}, number = {}, pages = {165835}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165835}, pmid = {37517735}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Lake systems respond physically, chemically, and biologically to hydro-climatic change and variability, and these responses are documented in the sediments. Individual proxies and lacustrine environments may respond to climate variations in a nonlinear way, making it difficult to determine the direction and extent of a climatic shift. Here we investigate the response of lake ecosystem to climatic and environmental changes using a suite of paleo-proxies including ostracods, chironomids, and n-alkanes distribution from paleolake 'Gayal el Bazal (Yemen)'. A previous study from this site has provided a continuous, and high-resolution dataset providing an understanding of precipitation during the last ca 1200 years, particularly during Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). However, the response of the lake ecosystem to these changing hydro-climate conditions, including water-level, salinity, and productivity, remains unknown. The n-alkanes dataset shows that during pluvial interval such as the MCA, the lake experienced an increase in nutrient input resulting in enhanced aquatic productivity. Concurrently, ostracods assemblage displays an increased abundance of swimmer species (like Bradleytriebella lineata and Fabaeomiscandona cf. breuili), suggesting an indirect response between ostracods and climate shifts. The chironomid community during the MCA interval is dominated by taxa belonging to the subfamilies of Chironomini, suggesting a warm, shallow, productive environment with macrophyte vegetation. The LIA interval is marked by increased abundance of higher-chain length n-alkanes, suggesting increased contribution from higher plants. Furthermore, ostracod distribution revealed increased abundance of non-swimmer species like Vestalenula cylindrica., which thrive under saline conditions in the lake. Changes in abundances of Tanytarsini during the LIA interval, which are associated with higher oxygen levels, suggest changes in lake productivity. As a result, the overall patterns in biological indicators reveal that their individual abundance and species/tribe distribution fluctuates in response to changes in the climate and hydrological conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37517424, year = {2023}, author = {Samarasekera, U}, title = {Climate change and malaria: predictions becoming reality.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {402}, number = {10399}, pages = {361-362}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01569-6}, pmid = {37517424}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Climate Change ; Mosquito Vectors ; *Malaria/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Anopheles ; }, }
@article {pmid37515881, year = {2023}, author = {Goers, S and Kapeller, R and Schneider, F and Dirschmid, D and Ludwig, R}, title = {Regional economic costs of climate change: An interdisciplinary impact assessment for Upper Austria.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {345}, number = {}, pages = {118634}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118634}, pmid = {37515881}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Austria ; *Climate Change ; *Agriculture ; Forestry ; Geography ; }, abstract = {Region-specific meteorological data show that Upper Austria will mainly be affected by increasing temperatures (up to +2.7 °C in 2050) and decreasing precipitation (up to - 27 mm in 2050). Using an interdisciplinary framework, we derive climatic developments and quantify the resulting direct sectoral and macroeconomic impacts for Upper Austria. Based on a set of climate change indicators, sectoral damages are monetized for selected impact chains in forestry, health, agriculture, space heating and cooling, and winter tourism. These damage costs are used as input for ex-ante simulations to quantify the macroeconomic impacts in 2022-2050. The results show an annual decline in gross regional product, accompanied by an annual decline in employment. This study provides a basis for decision making in Upper Austria, as well as in regions with comparable geographical, economic or demographic structures, and highlights the importance of region-specific climate change adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid37515323, year = {2023}, author = {Gao, L and Kantar, MB and Moxley, D and Ortiz-Barrientos, D and Rieseberg, LH}, title = {Crop adaptation to climate change: An evolutionary perspective.}, journal = {Molecular plant}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {1518-1546}, doi = {10.1016/j.molp.2023.07.011}, pmid = {37515323}, issn = {1752-9867}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Plant Breeding/methods ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics ; Gene Editing ; Genome, Plant ; }, abstract = {The disciplines of evolutionary biology and plant and animal breeding have been intertwined throughout their development, with responses to artificial selection yielding insights into the action of natural selection and evolutionary biology providing statistical and conceptual guidance for modern breeding. Here we offer an evolutionary perspective on a grand challenge of the 21st century: feeding humanity in the face of climate change. We first highlight promising strategies currently under way to adapt crops to current and future climate change. These include methods to match crop varieties with current and predicted environments and to optimize breeding goals, management practices, and crop microbiomes to enhance yield and sustainable production. We also describe the promise of crop wild relatives and recent technological innovations such as speed breeding, genomic selection, and genome editing for improving environmental resilience of existing crop varieties or for developing new crops. Next, we discuss how methods and theory from evolutionary biology can enhance these existing strategies and suggest novel approaches. We focus initially on methods for reconstructing the evolutionary history of crops and their pests and symbionts, because such historical information provides an overall framework for crop-improvement efforts. We then describe how evolutionary approaches can be used to detect and mitigate the accumulation of deleterious mutations in crop genomes, identify alleles and mutations that underlie adaptation (and maladaptation) to agricultural environments, mitigate evolutionary trade-offs, and improve critical proteins. Continuing feedback between the evolution and crop biology communities will ensure optimal design of strategies for adapting crops to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37514350, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, W and Modi, D and Picot, A}, title = {Soil and Phytomicrobiome for Plant Disease Suppression and Management under Climate Change: A Review.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {37514350}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {ANR-20-CE32-0008//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; J-002305, J-002272, and J-002366//Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada/ ; }, abstract = {The phytomicrobiome plays a crucial role in soil and ecosystem health, encompassing both beneficial members providing critical ecosystem goods and services and pathogens threatening food safety and security. The potential benefits of harnessing the power of the phytomicrobiome for plant disease suppression and management are indisputable and of interest in agriculture but also in forestry and landscaping. Indeed, plant diseases can be mitigated by in situ manipulations of resident microorganisms through agronomic practices (such as minimum tillage, crop rotation, cover cropping, organic mulching, etc.) as well as by applying microbial inoculants. However, numerous challenges, such as the lack of standardized methods for microbiome analysis and the difficulty in translating research findings into practical applications are at stake. Moreover, climate change is affecting the distribution, abundance, and virulence of many plant pathogens, while also altering the phytomicrobiome functioning, further compounding disease management strategies. Here, we will first review literature demonstrating how agricultural practices have been found effective in promoting soil health and enhancing disease suppressiveness and mitigation through a shift of the phytomicrobiome. Challenges and barriers to the identification and use of the phytomicrobiome for plant disease management will then be discussed before focusing on the potential impacts of climate change on the phytomicrobiome functioning and disease outcome.}, }
@article {pmid37514349, year = {2023}, author = {Li, S and Fu, G}, title = {Impacts of Anthropogenic Activities and Climate Change on Forage Nutrition Storage in Tibetan Grasslands.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {37514349}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Uncertainties about the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on forage nutrition storage of grasslands can limit the adaptive management of grasslands across the whole Tibetan Plateau. The main objective was to investigate the impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on the forage nutrition storage of grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau. Based on random forest models, we quantified the responses of forage nutrition storage to anthropogenic activities and climate change across the whole Tibetan grasslands from 2000 to 2020. Warming and increased precipitation did not always increase forage nutrition storage, and cooling and decreased precipitation did not always reduce forage nutrition storage. Compared to temperature and precipitation changes, radiation change had stronger contributions to potential and actual forage nutrition storage. Humankind's activities altered the impacts of climate change on forage nutrition storage. The impacts of anthropogenic activities on forage nutrition storage increased linearly with increasing mean annual temperature and decreasing elevation but showed quadratic relationships with longitude, mean annual precipitation and radiation. The change in the impacts of humankind's activities on forage nutrition storage was more closely related to radiation change than temperature and precipitation changes. The findings observed by this study caution that the impacts of radiation change on forage nutrition forage should be taken seriously under global change. Both climate change and humankind activities cannot always increase forage nutrition storage but may cause the degradation of forage nutrition storage.}, }
@article {pmid37514264, year = {2023}, author = {Aparna,  and Skarzyńska, A and Pląder, W and Pawełkowicz, M}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Regulation of Genes Involved in Sex Determination and Fruit Production in Cucumber.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {37514264}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {UMO-2020/37/B/NZ9/00586//National Science Center/ ; }, abstract = {Environmental changes, both natural and anthropogenic, mainly related to rising temperatures and water scarcity, are clearly visible around the world. Climate change is important for crop production and is a major issue for the growth and productivity of cucumbers. Processes such as sex determination, flower morphogenesis and fruit development in cucumbers are highly sensitive to various forms of stress induced by climatic changes. It is noteworthy that many factors, including genetic factors, transcription factors, phytohormones and miRNAs, are crucial in regulating these processes and are themselves affected by climate change. Changes in the expression and activity of these factors have been observed as a consequence of climatic conditions. This review focuses primarily on exploring the effects of climate change and abiotic stresses, such as increasing temperature and drought, on the processes of sex determination, reproduction, and fruit development in cucumbers at the molecular level. In addition, it highlights the existing research gaps that need to be addressed in order to improve our understanding of the complex interactions between climate change and cucumber physiology. This, in turn, may lead to strategies to mitigate the adverse effects and enhance cucumber productivity in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid37510617, year = {2023}, author = {Whiley, H and Smith, JC and Moore, N and Burton, R and Conci, N and Psarras, H and Ross, KE}, title = {Climate Change and Health: Challenges to the Local Government Environmental Health Workforce in South Australia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {37510617}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; Australia ; South Australia ; *Local Government ; Climate Change ; Pandemics/prevention &amp; control ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; Environmental Health ; Workforce ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the most urgent and significant public health risk facing the globe. In Australia, it has been identified that Environmental Health Officers/Practitioners (EHOs/EHPs, hereafter EHOs) are a currently underutilized source of knowledge and skills that can contribute to climate change adaptation planning at the local government level. The ability of local government EHOs to utilize their local knowledge and skills in human health risk assessment during a public health emergency was demonstrated through their role in the response to COVID-19. This study used a survey and follow up interviews to examine the roles and responsibilities of EHOs during the COVID-19 pandemic and used the results to examine the potential of the workforce to tackle climate change and health related issues. What worked well, what regulatory tools were helpful, how interagency collaboration worked and what barriers or hindering factors existed were also explored. A workforce review of EHOs in South Australia was also undertaken to identify current and future challenges facing EHOs and their capacity to assist in climate change preparedness. The findings demonstrated that the workforce was used in the response to COVID-19 for varying roles by councils, including in education and communication (both internally and externally) as well as monitoring and reporting compliance with directions. Notably, half the workforce believed they could have been better utilized, and the other half thought they were well utilized. The South Australian Local Government Functional Support Group (LGFSG) was praised by the workforce for a successful approach in coordinating multiagency responses and communicating directions in a timely fashion. These lessons learnt from the COVID-19 pandemic should be incorporated into climate change adaptation planning. To ensure consistent messaging and a consolidated information repository, a centralized group should be used to coordinate local government climate change adaptation plans in relation to environmental health and be included in all future emergency management response plans. The surveyed EHOs identified environmental health issues associated with climate change as the most significant future challenge; however, concerningly, participants believe that a lack of adequate resourcing, leading to workforce shortages, increasing workloads and a lack of support, is negatively impacting the workforce's preparedness to deal with these emerging issues. It was suggested that the misperception of environmental health and a failure to recognize its value has resulted in a unique dilemma where EHOs and their councils find themselves caught between managing current workload demands and issues, and endeavouring to prepare, as a priority, for emerging environmental health issues associated with climate change and insufficient resources.}, }
@article {pmid37509796, year = {2023}, author = {Kos, J and Anić, M and Radić, B and Zadravec, M and Janić Hajnal, E and Pleadin, J}, title = {Climate Change-A Global Threat Resulting in Increasing Mycotoxin Occurrence.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {37509796}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {During the last decade, scientists have given increasingly frequent warnings about global warming, linking it to mycotoxin-producing moulds in various geographical regions across the world. In the future, more pronounced climate change could alter host resilience and host-pathogen interaction and have a significant impact on the development of toxicogenic moulds and the production of their secondary metabolites, known as mycotoxins. The current climate attracts attention and calls for novel diagnostic tools and notions about the biological features of agricultural cultivars and toxicogenic moulds. Since European climate environments offer steadily rising opportunities for Aspergillus flavus growth, an increased risk of cereal contamination with highly toxic aflatoxins shall be witnessed in the future. On top of that, the profile (representation) of certain mycotoxigenic Fusarium species is changing ever more substantially, while the rise in frequency of Fusarium graminearum contamination, as a species which is able to produce several toxic mycotoxins, seen in northern and central Europe, is becoming a major concern. In the following paper, a high-quality approach to a preventative strategy is tailored to put a stop to the toxicogenic mould- and mycotoxin-induced contamination of foods and feeds in the foreseeable future.}, }
@article {pmid37508469, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, Y and Zhao, H and Qi, Y and Li, M and Yang, N and Guo, J and Xian, X and Liu, W}, title = {Global Potential Geographical Distribution of the Southern Armyworm (Spodoptera eridania) under Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {37508469}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2021YFC2600400//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; caascx-2022-2025-IAS//Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {The southern armyworm (Spodoptera eridania), a polyphagous crop pest native to tropical America, has been found in Africa (2016) and India (2019), causing defoliation and damage to the reproductive structures of cassava, soybean, and tomato. The damage caused by this pest to crop systems has raised concerns regarding its potential risks. Therefore, we predicted the potential geographical distribution of S. eridania under climate change conditions using 19 bioclimatic variables based on an optimized MaxEnt model. The results showed that annual precipitation (bio12), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), and precipitation of the driest month (bio14) were important bioclimatic variables influencing the potential distribution. The prediction showed that the suitable habitat area was approximately 3426.43 × 10[4] km[2], mainly concentrated in southern North America, South America, western Europe, central Africa, southern Asia, and eastern Oceania. In response to global climate change, suitable habitats for S. eridania will expand and shift to higher latitudes in the future, especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Because of the current devastating effects on crop production, countries without S. eridania invasion, such as the European Union, Southeast Asian countries, and Australia, need to strengthen phytosanitary measures at border ports to prevent the introduction of this pest.}, }
@article {pmid37508463, year = {2023}, author = {Petrosyan, V and Dinets, V and Osipov, F and Dergunova, N and Khlyap, L}, title = {Range Dynamics of Striped Field Mouse (Apodemus agrarius) in Northern Eurasia under Global Climate Change Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {37508463}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {21-14-00123//Russian Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {The striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius Pallas, 1771) is a widespread species in Northern Eurasia. It damages crops and carries zoonotic pathogens. Its current and future range expansion under climate change may negatively affect public health and the economy, warranting further research to understand the ecological and invasive characteristics of the species. In our study, we used seven algorithms (GLM, GAM, GBS, FDA, RF, ANN, and MaxEnt) to develop robust ensemble species distribution models (eSDMs) under current (1970-2000) and future climate conditions derived from global circulation models (GCMs) for 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. Simulation of climate change included high-, medium-, and low-sensitivity GCMs under four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We analyzed the habitat suitability across GCMs and scenarios by constructing geographical ranges and calculating their centroids. The results showed that the range changes depended on both the sensitivity of GCMs and scenario. The main trends were range expansion to the northeast and partial loss of habitat in the steppe area. The striped field mouse may form a continuous range from Central Europe to East Asia, closing the range gap that has existed for 12 thousand years. We present 49 eSDMs for the current and future distribution of A. agrarius (for 2000-2100) with quantitative metrics (gain, loss, change) of the range dynamics under global climate change. The most important predictor variables determining eSDMs are mean annual temperature, mean diurnal range of temperatures, the highest temperature of the warmest month, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the coldest month. These findings could help limit the population of the striped field mouse and predict distribution of the species under global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37508444, year = {2023}, author = {Jameel, MA and Nadeem, MS and Haq, SM and Mubeen, I and Shabbir, A and Aslam, S and Ahmad, R and Gaafar, AZ and Al-Munqedhi, BMA and Bussmann, RW}, title = {Shifts in the Distribution Range and Niche Dynamics of the Globally Threatened Western Tragopan (Tragopan melanocephalus) Due to Climate Change and Human Population Pressure.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {37508444}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {RSPD2023R686//King Saud University/ ; }, abstract = {The impact of a changing climate, particularly global warming, often harms the distribution of pheasants, particularly those with limited endemic ranges. To effectively create plans of action aimed at conserving species facing threats such as the Western Tragopan, (Tragopan melanocephalus; Gray, 1829; Galliformes, found in the western Himalayas), it is crucial to understand how future distributions may be affected by anticipated climate change. This study utilized MaxEnt modeling to assess how suitable the habitat of the targeted species is likely to be under different climate scenarios. While similar studies have been conducted regionally, there has been no research on this particular endemic animal species found in the western Himalayas throughout the entire distribution range. The study utilized a total of 200 occurrence points; 19 bioclimatic, four anthropogenic, three topographic, and a vegetation variable were also used. To determine the most fitting model, species distribution modeling (SDM) was employed, and the MaxEnt calibration and optimization techniques were utilized. Data for projected climate scenarios of the 2050s and 2070s were obtained from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585. Among all the variables analyzed; aspect, precipitation of coldest quarter, mean diurnal range, enhanced vegetation index, precipitation of driest month, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, human footprint, precipitation of driest quarter, and temperature annual range were recognized as the most influential drivers, in that order. The predicted scenarios had high accuracy values (AUC-ROC > 0.9). Based on the feedback provided by the inhabitants, it was observed that the livability of the selected species could potentially rise (between 3.7 to 13%) in all projected scenarios of climate change, because this species is relocating towards the northern regions of the elevation gradient, which is farther from the residential areas, and their habitats are shrinking. The suitable habitats of the Tragopan melanocephalus in the Himalayan region will move significantly by 725 m upwards, because of predicted climate change. However, the fact that the species is considered extinct in most areas and only found in small patches suggests that further research is required to avert a further population decline and delineate the reasons leading to the regional extinction of the species. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for devising conservation strategies for Tragopan melanocephalus under the changing climate and provide a framework for subsequent surveillance efforts aimed at protecting the species.}, }
@article {pmid37508339, year = {2023}, author = {Sario, S and Melo-Ferreira, J and Santos, C}, title = {Winter Is (Not) Coming: Is Climate Change Helping Drosophila suzukii Overwintering?.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {37508339}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {POCI-01-0247-FEDER-047034//COMPETE2020/ ; UIDB/50006/2020 | UIDP/50006/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; PTDC/ASP-PLA/4477/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; SFRH/BD/138186/2018//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic challenges, particularly climate change-associated factors, are strongly impacting the behavior, distribution, and survival of insects. Yet how these changes affect pests such as Drosophila suzukii, a cosmopolitan pest of soft-skinned small fruits, remains poorly understood. This polyphagous pest is chill-susceptible, with cold temperatures causing multiple stresses, including desiccation and starvation, also challenging the immune system. Since the invasion of Europe and the United States of America in 2009, it has been rapidly spreading to several European and American countries (both North and South American) and North African and Asian countries. However, globalization and global warming are allowing an altitudinal and latitudinal expansion of the species, and thus the colonization of colder regions. This review explores how D. suzukii adapts to survive during cold seasons. We focus on overwintering strategies of behavioral adaptations such as migration or sheltering, seasonal polyphenism, reproductive adaptations, as well as metabolic and transcriptomic changes in response to cold. Finally, we discuss how the continuation of climate change may promote the ability of this species to survive and spread, and what mitigation measures could be employed to overcome cold-adapted D. suzukii.}, }
@article {pmid37508118, year = {2023}, author = {Cheng, X and Han, Y and Lin, J and Jiang, F and Cai, Q and Shi, Y and Cui, D and Wen, X}, title = {Time to Step Up Conservation: Climate Change Will Further Reduce the Suitable Habitats for the Vulnerable Species Marbled Polecat (Vormela peregusna).}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {37508118}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {KJZXXP202212//National Forestry and Grassland Administration Forestry plant new varieties and patent protection application/ ; }, abstract = {Habitat loss and human threats are putting the marbled polecat (Vormela peregusna) on the brink of extinction. Numerous recent studies have found that climate change will further deteriorate the living environment of endangered species, leading to their eventual extinction. In this study, we used the results of infrared camera surveys in China and worldwide distribution data to construct an ensemble model consisting of 10 commonly used ecological niche models to specify potential suitable habitat areas for V. peregusna under current conditions with similar environments to the sighting record sites. Changes in the suitable habitat for V. peregusna under future climate change scenarios were simulated using mid-century (2050s) and the end of the century (2090s) climate scenarios provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We evaluated the accuracy of the model to obtain the environmental probability values (cutoff) of the V. peregusna distribution, the current distribution of suitable habitats, and future changes in moderately and highly suitable habitat areas. The results showed that the general linear model (GLM) was the best single model for predicting suitable habitats for V. peregusna, and the kappa coefficient, area under the curve (AUC), and true skill statistic (TSS) of the ensemble model all exceeded 0.9, reflecting greater accuracy and stability than single models. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for V. peregusna reached 3935.92 × 10[4] km[2], suggesting a wide distribution range. In the future, climate change is predicted to severely affect the distribution of V. peregusna and substantially reduce the area of suitable habitats for the species, with 11.91 to 33.55% of moderately and highly suitable habitat areas no longer suitable for the survival of V. peregusna. This shift poses an extremely serious challenge to the conservation of this species. We suggest that attention be given to this problem in Europe, especially the countries surrounding the Black Sea, Asia, China, and Mongolia, and that measures be taken, such as regular monitoring and designating protected areas for the conservation of vulnerable animals.}, }
@article {pmid37505647, year = {2023}, author = {Mendoza-Cano, O and Trujillo, X and Huerta, M and Ríos-Silva, M and Lugo-Radillo, A and Benites-Godínez, V and Bricio-Barrios, JA and Ríos-Bracamontes, EF and Uribe-Ramos, JM and Baltazar-Rodríguez, GM and Murillo-Zamora, E}, title = {Assessing the Relationship between Annual Surface Temperature Changes and the Burden of Dengue: Implications for Climate Change and Global Health Outcomes.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {37505647}, issn = {2414-6366}, abstract = {Dengue fever remains a significant global health concern, imposing a substantial burden on public health systems worldwide. Recent studies have suggested that climate change, specifically the increase in surface temperatures associated with global warming, may impact the transmission dynamics of dengue. This study aimed to assess the relationship between annual surface temperature changes from 1961 to 2019 and the burden of dengue in 185 countries. The dengue burden was evaluated for 2019 using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the annual rate of change (ARC) in DALY rates assessed from 1990 to 2019. A cross-sectional and ecological analysis was conducted using two publicly available datasets. Regression coefficients (β) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to examine the relationship between annual surface temperature changes and the burden of dengue. The results revealed a significant negative relationship between mean surface temperatures and DALY rates in 2019 (β = -16.9, 95% CI -26.9 to -6.8). Similarly, a significant negative relationship was observed between the temperature variable and the ARC (β = -0.99, 95% CI -1.66 to -0.32). These findings suggest that as temperatures continue to rise, the burden of dengue may globally decrease. The ecology of the vector and variations in seasons, precipitation patterns, and humidity levels may partially contribute to this phenomenon. Our study contributes to the expanding body of evidence regarding the potential implications of climate change for dengue dynamics. It emphasizes the critical importance of addressing climate change as a determinant of global health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid37505407, year = {2023}, author = {Sharma, R and Lahariya, C and Hossain, MM}, title = {Impact of Climate Change, Food Insecurity, and COVID-19 on the Health of Neonates and Children: A Narrative Review.}, journal = {Indian journal of pediatrics}, volume = {90}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {104-115}, pmid = {37505407}, issn = {0973-7693}, mesh = {Child ; Infant, Newborn ; Adult ; Humans ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; Pandemics/prevention &amp; control ; Ethnicity ; Climate Change ; Food Supply ; Communicable Disease Control ; Minority Groups ; Food Insecurity ; }, abstract = {Climate change, food insecurity, and epidemics affect all population sub-groups. This article reviews the current evidence on the relationships between climate change, food insecurity, and the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of newborn and child health. The authors searched Medline, PsycINFO, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Scopus databases using a structured approach. Food insecurity, particularly from the lack of food access and affordability, increased amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Factors such as nationwide lockdowns, increased unemployment and financial instability, and school closures precipitated food insecurity. Children born to immigrant parents, belonging to racial and ethnic minority groupsor low-income families, and those who were Autistic were highly vulnerable. Climate change also contributes to food insecurity, with increased susceptibility among neonates and children compared to adults. There is a need for further research on the relationships between climate-linked exposures and COVID-19 transmission. Multisectoral collaborations and multilevel interventions are necessary to mobilize local and national resources for mitigating and preventing the synergistic effects of the three concurrent crises. The evidence-informed discourse on this topic can help in improved preparedness and response for future outbreaks and epidemics. The policy interventions for newborn and child survival need to factor in climate change, food insecurity, and emerging diseases.}, }
@article {pmid37504728, year = {2023}, author = {Yan, C and Hao, H and Wang, Z and Sha, S and Zhang, Y and Wang, Q and Kang, Z and Huang, L and Wang, L and Feng, H}, title = {Prediction of Suitable Habitat Distribution of Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis in the World and China under Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {37504728}, issn = {2309-608X}, support = {2020DB006//Bingtuan Science and Technology Program/ ; Grant No. U1903206//the Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; TDBSCX202105//the Project of Scientific Research and Innovation for postgraduates in Tarim University/ ; }, abstract = {Years of outbreaks of woody canker (Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis) in the United States, Iran, and China have resulted in massive economic losses to biological forests and fruit trees. However, only limited information is available on their distribution, and their habitat requirements have not been well evaluated due to a lack of research. In recent years, scientists have utilized the MaxEnt model to estimate the effect of global temperature and specific environmental conditions on species distribution. Using occurrence and high resolution ecological data, we predicted the spatiotemporal distribution of C. pullmanensis under twelve climate change scenarios by applying the MaxEnt model. We identified climatic factors, geography, soil, and land cover that shape their distribution range and determined shifts in their habitat range. Then, we measured the suitable habitat area, the ratio of change in the area of suitable habitat, the expansion and shrinkage of maps under climate change, the direction and distance of range changes from the present to the end of the twenty-first century, and the effect of environmental variables. C. pullmanensis is mostly widespread in high-suitability regions in northwestern China, the majority of Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkey, northern Chile, southwestern Argentina, and the west coast of California in the United States. Under future climatic conditions, climate changes of varied intensities favored the expansion of suitable habitats for C. pullmanensis in China. However, appropriate land areas are diminishing globally. The trend in migration is toward latitudes and elevations that are higher. The estimated area of possible suitability shifted eastward in China. The results of the present study are valuable not only for countries such as Morocco, Spain, Chile, Turkey, Kazakhstan, etc., where the infection has not yet fully spread or been established, but also for nations where the species has been discovered. Authorities should take steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to restrict the spread of C. pullmanensis. Countries with highly appropriate locations should increase their surveillance, risk assessment, and response capabilities.}, }
@article {pmid37504592, year = {2023}, author = {Wei, X and Xu, D and Zhuo, Z}, title = {Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of Leafhopper, Cicadella viridis in China through the MaxEnt Model.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {37504592}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2022NSFSC0986//Sichuan Province Science and Technology Support Program/ ; 20A007//China West Normal University Support Program/ ; 20E051//China West Normal University Support Program/ ; 21E040//China West Normal University Support Program/ ; 22kA011//China West Normal University Support Program/ ; }, abstract = {Cicadella viridis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) is an omnivorous leafhopper that feeds on plant sap. It significantly reduces the yield of agricultural and forestry crops while feeding or ovipositing on the host plant. In recent years, the rapid expansion of C. viridis has posed a serious threat to agricultural and forestry crops. To study the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of the leafhopper, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS software, combined with 253 geographic distribution records of the pest and 24 environmental variables, were used, for the first time, to predict the potential distribution of C. viridis in China under conditions of climatic change. The results showed that the currently suitable areas for C. viridis are 29.06-43° N, 65.25-85.15° E, and 93.45-128.85° E, with an estimated area of 11,231,423.79 km[2], i.e., 11.66% of China. The Loess Plateau, the North China Plain, and the Shandong Peninsula are the main suitable areas. The potential distribution of the leafhopper for the high and medium suitability areas decreased under each climate scenario (except RCP8.5 in the 2090s). Several key variables that have the most significant effect on the distribution of C. viridis were identified, including the mean annual temperature (Bio1), the standard deviation of temperature seasonality (Bio4), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19). Our research provides important guidance for developing effective monitoring and pest control methods for C. viridis, given the predicted challenges of altered pest dynamics related to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37501633, year = {2023}, author = {Bonell, A and Part, C and Okomo, U and Cole, R and Hajat, S and Kovats, S and Sferruzzi-Perri, AN and Hirst, JE}, title = {An expert review of environmental heat exposure and stillbirth in the face of climate change: Clinical implications and priority issues.}, journal = {BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1471-0528.17622}, pmid = {37501633}, issn = {1471-0528}, abstract = {Exposure to extreme heat in pregnancy increases the risk of stillbirth. Progress in reducing stillbirth rates has stalled, and populations are increasingly exposed to high temperatures and climate events that may further undermine health strategies. This narrative review summarises the current clinical and epidemiological evidence of the impact of maternal heat exposure on stillbirth risk. Out of 20 studies, 19 found an association between heat and stillbirth risk. Recent studies based in low- to middle-income countries and tropical settings add to the existing literature to demonstrate that all populations are at risk. Additionally, both short-term heat exposure and whole-pregnancy heat exposure increase the risk of stillbirth. A definitive threshold of effect has not been identified, as most studies define exposure as above the 90th centile of the usual temperature for that population. Therefore, the association between heat and stillbirth has been found with exposures from as low as >12.64°C up to >46.4°C. The pathophysiological pathways by which maternal heat exposure may lead to stillbirth, based on human and animal studies, include both placental and embryonic or fetal impacts. Although evidence gaps remain and further research is needed to characterise these mechanistic pathways in more detail, preliminary evidence suggests epigenetic changes, alteration in imprinted genes, congenital abnormalities, reduction in placental blood flow, size and function all play a part. Finally, we explore this topic from a public health perspective; we discuss and evaluate the current public health guidance on minimising the risk of extreme heat in the community. There is limited pregnancy-specific guidance within heatwave planning, and no evidence-based interventions have been established to prevent poor pregnancy outcomes. We highlight priority research questions to move forward in the field and specifically note the urgent need for evidence-based interventions that are sustainable.}, }
@article {pmid37500766, year = {2023}, author = {Jansson, JK}, title = {Microorganisms, climate change, and the Sustainable Development Goals: progress and challenges.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {622-623}, pmid = {37500766}, issn = {1740-1534}, mesh = {*Sustainable Development ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid37500279, year = {2023}, author = {Lokmic-Tomkins, Z and Bhandari, D and Watterson, J and Pollock, WE and Cochrane, L and Robinson, E and Su, TT}, title = {Multilevel interventions as climate change adaptation response to protect maternal and child health: a scoping review protocol.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {e073960}, pmid = {37500279}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Child ; Humans ; Female ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Health Promotion/methods ; Acclimatization ; Health Facilities ; Research Design ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; Review Literature as Topic ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Growing evidence suggests that climate change-related extreme weather events adversely impact maternal and child health (MCH) outcomes, which requires effective, sustainable and culturally appropriate interventions at individual, community and policy levels to minimise these impacts. This scoping review proposes to map the evidence available on the type, characteristics and outcomes of multilevel interventions implemented as adaptational strategies to protect MCH from the possible adverse effects of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: The following databases will be searched: Embase, MEDLINE, Emcare, EPPI-Centre database of health promotion research (BiblioMap) EPPI-Centre Database for promoting Health Effectiveness Reviews (DoPHER), Global Health, CINAHL, Joanna Briggs Institute EBP Database, Maternity and Infant Care Database, Education Resource Information Center, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science and Global Index Medicus, which indexes Latin America and the Caribbean, Index Medicus for the South-East Asia Region, African Index Medicus, Western Pacific Region Index Medicus. Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, ClinicalTrials.gov, conference proceedings, thesis and dissertations, policy and guidelines and their reference lists will also be searched. Two reviewers will independently screen titles and abstracts and full text based on predefined eligibility criteria. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews using the Population, Concept and Context framework and the Template for Intervention Description and Replication checklist will be used to structure and report the findings.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics permission to conduct the scoping review is not required as the information collected is publicly available through databases. Findings will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed publication and conference presentations.}, }
@article {pmid37499258, year = {2023}, author = {Bernhardt, JM and Sipe, MH and Tagliareni, ME and O'Brien, LB and Donati, C and Evans, LA and Nicholas, PK}, title = {Leadership in Nursing Education for Advancing a School of Nursing-Led Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Health.}, journal = {The Journal of nursing education}, volume = {62}, number = {9}, pages = {528-531}, doi = {10.3928/01484834-20230509-10}, pmid = {37499258}, issn = {1938-2421}, mesh = {Humans ; *Leadership ; Climate Change ; *Education, Nursing ; Curriculum ; Social Justice ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This article examines innovations in the development and advancement of a school of nursing-led climate change center and innovative leadership related to climate change and health in nursing education.<br><br>METHOD: The integration of health consequences of climate change in curricula and continuing education is essential to prepare nursing students and nurses for clinical practice.<br><br>RESULTS: Transformational leadership is a key concept for effective leadership in nursing education to address climate change as the looming public health challenge of the 21st century. Transformational leadership strengthened one nursing program's curricula, dissemination of relevant scholarship, and achievements with public health outreach related to climate change, climate justice, and health.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Nursing education leaders can influence nursing practice and improve societal health outcomes related to the health consequences of climate change across all levels of education and continuing education for professional nurses. [J Nurs Educ. 2023;62(9):528-531.].}, }
@article {pmid37498956, year = {2023}, author = {Yu, Z and Wang, J and Tan, Z and Luo, Y}, title = {Impact of climate change on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {7}, pages = {e0285179}, pmid = {37498956}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *SARS-CoV-2 ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Weather ; Temperature ; China/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The outbreak and prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 have severely affected social security. Physical isolation is an effective control that affects the short-term human-to-human transmission of the epidemic, although weather presents a long-term effect. Understanding the effect of weather on the outbreak allow it to be contained at the earliest possible. China is selected as the study area, and six weather factors that receive the most attention from January 20, 2020 to April 30, 2020 are selected to investigate the correlation between weather and SARS-CoV-2 to provide a theoretical basis for long-term epidemic prevention and control. The results show that (1) the average growth rate (GR) of SARS-CoV-2 in each province is logarithmically distributed with a mean value of 5.15%. The GR of the southeastern region is higher than that of the northwestern region, which is consistent with the Hu Line. (2) The specific humidity, 2-m temperature (T), ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and wind speed (WS) adversely affect the GR. By contrast, the total precipitation (TP) and surface pressure (SP) promote the GR. (3) For every 1 unit increase in UV radiation, the GR decreases by 0.30% in 11 days, and the UV radiation in China is higher than that worldwide (0.92% higher per day). Higher population aggregation and urbanization directly affect the epidemic, and weather is an indirect factor.}, }
@article {pmid37497882, year = {2024}, author = {Huili, Z and Li, K and Nguyen, KV}, title = {Climate change: approach to intervention using expression vector for carbonic anhydrase via glycosylphosphatidylinositol.}, journal = {Nucleosides, nucleotides &amp; nucleic acids}, volume = {43}, number = {2}, pages = {134-145}, doi = {10.1080/15257770.2023.2238781}, pmid = {37497882}, issn = {1532-2335}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Glycosylphosphatidylinositols ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Carbonic Anhydrases/genetics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a change in the usual weather found in a place. The climate change has a major impact not only on natural disasters of the Earth but also on human health. The climate crisis is then no longer a future concern. It includes both the global warming driven by human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), and the resulting large-scale shifts in weather patterns. Global warming can occur from a variety of causes, both natural and human induced. The primary GHG in Earth's atmosphere, listed in decreasing order of average global mole fraction, are: water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and ozone (O3). Today, scientists around the world continue to try and solve the puzzle of climate change. It is clear that to address climate change, the amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere by industrial process has to be reduced because once it is added to the atmosphere, it can continue to affect climate for thousands of years. For such a purpose, an approach to intervention using expression vectors for any protein targeting to the cell plasma membrane via the glycosylphosphatidylinositol, GPI, anchor is suggested. The resulting GPI-anchored proteins would be useful for studying intermolecular interactions, especially gene-environment interactions, in investigating the potential impact of any chemical compounds on any genes of interest and could be used for carbonic anhydrase (CA)-based CO2-capture (environmental application). This approach would be crucial not only for capturing CO2 via GPI and CA but also for the production of CA enzyme as well as its stabilization and therefore useful for combating the global warming of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37496802, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, X and Gou, Z and Zhang, H}, title = {Residents' participation in energy performance certification for collective action on climate change: the case of EnerGuide.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1196208}, pmid = {37496802}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Although governments have launched energy performance certification (EPC) programs to increase residential energy efficiency, residents' perception and acceptance of these programs have been little studied. This study contextualizes residents' intentions to participate in EPC programs in terms of their attributions to and attitudes toward climate change to find mediating factors and effects to help trigger collective action to reduce residential sector energy demand.<br><br>METHODS: This study employed a partial least squares structural equation modeling approach to empirically analyze a survey conducted on 400 residents of Edmonton, Canada, who participated in the Canadian energy efficiency rating and labeling program, EnerGuide.<br><br>RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Using EnerGuide, a Canadian energy efficiency rating and labeling program, as an example, this study establishes a framework to explain that local residents' internal and external attributions to climate change elicit positive attitudes (need to take action), increasing their recognition of energy efficiency program benefits, which further promotes their EnerGuide program acceptance and participation intentions. This study also reveals the mediating effects between variables. Residents' attitudes toward climate change mediate the relationship between internal/external attributions and EnerGuide program acceptance, and they indirectly impact residents' program acceptance and participation intentions, with this effect moderated by energy efficiency program benefits. Residents' program acceptance also mediates the relationship between climate change attitudes/energy efficiency program benefits and the intention outcome.<br><br>IMPLICATION: The study provides an example of the use of climate change discourse to motivate residents' energy efficiency program participation.}, }
@article {pmid37495880, year = {2023}, author = {Geng, T and Jia, F and Cai, W and Wu, L and Gan, B and Jing, Z and Li, S and McPhaden, MJ}, title = {Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {619}, number = {7971}, pages = {774-781}, pmid = {37495880}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Ecosystem ; *El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; *Global Warming ; Seasons ; *Climate Models ; Pacific Ocean ; Greenhouse Effect ; Thermodynamics ; }, abstract = {Most El Niño events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter[1-3], whereas La Niña tends to develop after an El Niño and last for two years or longer[4-7]. Relative to single-year La Niña, consecutive La Niña features meridionally broader easterly winds and hence a slower heat recharge of the equatorial Pacific[6,7], enabling the cold anomalies to persist, exerting prolonged impacts on global climate, ecosystems and agriculture[8-13]. Future changes to multi-year-long La Niña events remain unknown. Here, using climate models under future greenhouse-gas forcings[14], we find an increased frequency of consecutive La Niña ranging from 19 ± 11% in a low-emission scenario to 33 ± 13% in a high-emission scenario, supported by an inter-model consensus stronger in higher-emission scenarios. Under greenhouse warming, a mean-state warming maximum in the subtropical northeastern Pacific enhances the regional thermodynamic response to perturbations, generating anomalous easterlies that are further northward than in the twentieth century in response to El Niño warm anomalies. The sensitivity of the northward-broadened anomaly pattern is further increased by a warming maximum in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The slower heat recharge associated with the northward-broadened easterly anomalies facilitates the cold anomalies of the first-year La Niña to persist into a second-year La Niña. Thus, climate extremes as seen during historical consecutive La Niña episodes probably occur more frequently in the twenty-first century.}, }
@article {pmid37495152, year = {2023}, author = {Zhuo, C and Junhong, G and Wei, L and Hongtao, J and Xi, L and Xiuquan, W and Zhe, B}, title = {Evaluating emission reduction potential at the "30-60 Dual Carbon targets" over China from a view of wind power under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {900}, number = {}, pages = {165782}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165782}, pmid = {37495152}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Large-scale wind energy development is one of the main paths to achieving China's carbon peak and neutrality goals. How will the wind power and corresponding carbon abatement potential (CAP) in China change when China reaches the timing of its reduction carbon targets? This issue has not been well addressed. In this paper, a weighted multi-model ensemble with 14 global climate models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is used to evaluate the spatio-temporal characteristics of wind speed over China during the baseline period (2004-2014). Then, we further analyze the changes in wind power and corresponding CAP due to the climate change over China in the two-level years (2030 and 2060) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results show that the wind capacity factor over China will have a trend of decreasing in most regions of China and increasing in the southeast in 2060. Overall, climate change will have a slight impact on the CAP of wind power in 2030, with an increase in some southern provinces. However, the CAP of wind power will decrease significantly in most regions of China in 2060 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, especially in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Liaoning, by more than 5 %. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the CAP will decrease significantly in the southwest and northwest regions, such as Sichuan and Qinghai, by 9.86 % and 8.19 % respectively. Central and South provinces such as Hunan and Hubei will increase by about 5 %. In terms of seasonal changes, the CAP of wind power will decrease significantly in summer under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (about -5.24 %) and SSP5-8.5 scenario (about -6.50 %).These findings can help policymakers make decisions as they establish plans for wind power expansion while taking the effects of climate change into account as they work toward China's carbon neutrality goal.}, }
@article {pmid37495138, year = {2023}, author = {Wu, R and Qi, J and Li, W and Wang, L and Shen, Y and Liu, J and Teng, Y and Roos, C and Li, M}, title = {Landscape genomics analysis provides insights into future climate change-driven risk in rhesus macaque.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {899}, number = {}, pages = {165746}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165746}, pmid = {37495138}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Macaca mulatta/genetics ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Genomics ; }, abstract = {Climate change significantly affects the suitability of wildlife habitats. Thus, understanding how animals adapt ecologically and genetically to climate change is important for targeted species protection. Rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) are widely distributed and multi-climatically adapted primates. This study explored how rhesus macaques adapt to climate change by integrating ecological and genetic methods and applying species distribution models (SDMs) and a gradient forest (GF) model. The findings suggested that temperature seasonality primarily affects habitat suitability and indicated that climate change will have a dramatic impact on macaque populations in the future. We also applied genotype-environment association (GEA) analyses and selection signature analyses to identify genes associated with climate change and provide possible explanations for the adaptation of rhesus macaques to climatic environments. The population genomics analyses suggested that the Taihang population has the highest genomic vulnerability with inbreeding and low heterozygosity. Combined with the higher ecological vulnerability, additional conservation strategies are required for this population under higher risk of climate change. Our work measured the impact of climate change and enabled the identification of populations that exhibit high vulnerability to severe climate change. Such information is useful for selecting populations of rhesus macaques as subject of long-term monitoring or evolutionary rescue under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37493156, year = {2023}, author = {Stella, AB and Galmonte, A and Deodato, M and Ozturk, S and Reis, J and Manganotti, P}, title = {Climate Change and Global Warming: Are Individuals with Dementia - Including Alzheimer's Disease - At a Higher Risk?.}, journal = {Current Alzheimer research}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {209-212}, doi = {10.2174/1567205020666230726112305}, pmid = {37493156}, issn = {1875-5828}, mesh = {Humans ; *Alzheimer Disease/epidemiology ; Global Warming ; Climate Change ; *Cognition Disorders ; *Cognitive Dysfunction ; }, }
@article {pmid37492997, year = {2023}, author = {Morten, JM and Buchanan, PJ and Egevang, C and Glissenaar, IA and Maxwell, SM and Parr, N and Screen, JA and Vigfúsdóttir, F and Vogt-Vincent, NS and Williams, DA and Williams, NC and Witt, MJ and Hawkes, LA and Thurston, W}, title = {Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {19}, pages = {5596-5614}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16891}, pmid = {37492997}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NE/P006035/1//Bundesministerium f&#xfc;r Bildung und Forschung/ ; WW1-286R-18//National Geographic Society/ ; NE/L002434/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; NE/P006035/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; ST/V506667/1//Science and Technology Facilities Council/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; *Charadriiformes ; Atlantic Ocean ; Wind ; Arctic Regions ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Here, we report 21st-century trends in environmental variables affecting arctic terns at key locations along their Atlantic/Indian Ocean migratory flyway during the non-breeding seasons, identified through tracking data. End-of-century climate change projections were derived from Earth System Models and multi-model means calculated in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: 'middle-of-the-road' and 'fossil-fuelled development' scenarios. Declines in North Atlantic primary production emerge as a major impact to arctic terns likely to affect their foraging during the 21st century under a 'fossil-fuelled development' scenario. Minimal changes are, however, projected at three other key regions visited by arctic terns (Benguela Upwelling, Subantarctic Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean). Southern Ocean sea ice extent is likely to decline, but the magnitude of change and potential impacts on tern survival are uncertain. Small changes (<1 m s[-1]) in winds are projected in both scenarios, but with minimal likely impacts on migration routes and duration. However, Southern Ocean westerlies are likely to strengthen and contract closer to the continent, which may require arctic terns to shift routes or flight strategies. Overall, we find minor effects of climate change on the migration of arctic terns, with the exception of poorer foraging in the North Atlantic. However, given that arctic terns travel over huge spatial scales and live for decades, they integrate minor changes in conditions along their migration routes such that the sum effect may be greater than the parts. Meeting carbon emission targets is vital to slow these end-of-century climatic changes and minimise extinction risk for a suite of polar species.}, }
@article {pmid37492343, year = {2023}, author = {Andersen, ZJ and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Hoffmann, B and Melén, E}, title = {Climate change and respiratory disease: clinical guidance for healthcare professionals.}, journal = {Breathe (Sheffield, England)}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {220222}, pmid = {37492343}, issn = {1810-6838}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change is one of the major public health emergencies with already unprecedented impacts on our planet, environment and health. Climate change has already resulted in substantial increases in temperatures globally and more frequent and extreme weather in terms of heatwaves, droughts, dust storms, wildfires, rainstorms and flooding, with prolonged and altered allergen and microbial exposure as well as the introduction of new allergens to certain areas. All these exposures may have a major burden on patients with respiratory conditions, which will pose increasing challenges for respiratory clinicians and other healthcare providers. In addition, complex interactions between these different factors, along with other major environmental risk factors (e.g. air pollution), will exacerbate adverse health effects on the lung. For example, an increase in heat and sunlight in urban areas will lead to increases in ozone exposure among urban populations; effects of very high exposure to smoke and pollution from wildfires will be exacerbated by the accompanying heat and drought; and extreme precipitation events and flooding will increase exposure to humidity and mould indoors. This review aims to bring respiratory healthcare providers up to date with the newest research on the impacts of climate change on respiratory health. Respiratory clinicians and other healthcare providers need to be continually educated about the challenges of this emerging and growing public health problem and be equipped to be the key players in solutions to mitigate the impacts of climate change on patients with respiratory conditions.<br><br>EDUCATIONAL AIMS: To define climate change and describe major related environmental factors that pose a threat to patients with respiratory conditions.To provide an overview of the epidemiological evidence on climate change and respiratory diseases.To explain how climate change interacts with air pollution and other related environmental hazards to pose additional challenges for patients.To outline recommendations to protect the health of patients with respiratory conditions from climate-related environmental hazards in clinical practice.To outline recommendations to clinicians and patients with respiratory conditions on how to contribute to mitigating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37491957, year = {2023}, author = {Chiang-Hanisko, L}, title = {TCNS Scholars Corner: Transcultural Nursing and Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of transcultural nursing : official journal of the Transcultural Nursing Society}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {319}, doi = {10.1177/10436596231188362}, pmid = {37491957}, issn = {1552-7832}, mesh = {Humans ; *Transcultural Nursing/methods ; Climate Change ; Cultural Competency ; }, }
@article {pmid37491515, year = {2023}, author = {Nandal, A and Yadav, SS and Nath, AJ}, title = {Trees outside forests as climate change mitigation champions: evaluating their carbon sequestration potential and monetary value in Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak (Haryana), India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {8}, pages = {995}, pmid = {37491515}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Humans ; Adult ; *Trees ; *Ecosystem ; Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide ; Universities ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Biomass ; India ; }, abstract = {The annual average increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is touching new heights every year. Global climate change and warming are twin outcomes of record-breaking CO2 levels. The trees outside forests (TOF) are the most promising and suitable components in the ecosystem for combating global warming via carbon (C) sequestration. Urban university campuses are the hotspot regions of TOF. We have attempted to quantify the C stock, C sequestration potential, and C credit value of dominant tree species at Maharshi Dayanand University (MDU), Rohtak. Different volumetric and biomass equations were used for biomass computation. We assessed a total of 29,442 trees (top 10) for measuring phytosociological parameters like total tree count, age, height (H), and diameter at breast height (DBH) to quantify the amount of C stored. The total C stock, C sequestration rate, and monetary value were 78.67 (Mg C ha[-1]), 19.05 (Mg CO2 ha[-1] year[-1]), and 23,101.59 $ year[-1], respectively. Eucalyptus globulus is the most dominant tree species on the campus and topped almost all the quantitative characteristics like total tree count (~40 %), age (25 years), density (D) (55.35 trees ha[-1]), and total C stock (16.06 ± 9.90 Mg C ha[-1]). Tree basal area (BA), D, diversity, and H positively affected the total C stocks. When the C market becomes operational, these C credits can be traded while generating additional income for the university. The results from this study can also help calculate the total C footprint of the campus.}, }
@article {pmid37490427, year = {2023}, author = {Beyeler, NS and Nicastro, TM and Jawuoro, S and Odhiambo, G and Whittle, HJ and Bukusi, EA and Schmidt, LA and Weiser, SD}, title = {Pathways from climate change to emotional wellbeing: A qualitative study of Kenyan smallholder farmers living with HIV.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {e0002152}, pmid = {37490427}, issn = {2767-3375}, support = {D43 TW011306/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; R01 MH107330/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; R21 HD095739/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is associated with adverse mental and emotional health outcomes. Social and economic factors are well-known drivers of mental health, yet comparatively few studies examine the social and economic pathways through which climate change affects mental health. There is additionally a lack of research on climate change and mental health in sub-Saharan Africa. This qualitative study aimed to identify potential social and economic pathways through which climate change impacts mental and emotional wellbeing, focusing on a vulnerable population of Kenyan smallholder farmers living with HIV. We conducted in-depth, semi-structured interviews with forty participants to explore their experience of climate change. We used a thematic analytical approach. We find that among our study population of Kenyan smallholder farmers living with HIV, climate change is significantly affecting mental and emotional wellbeing. Respondents universally report some level of climate impact on emotional health including high degrees of stress; fear and concern about the future; and sadness, worry, and anxiety from losing one's home, farm, occupation, or ability to support their family. Climate-related economic insecurity is a main driver of emotional distress. Widespread economic insecurity disrupts systems of communal and family support, which is an additional driver of worsening mental and emotional health. Our study finds that individual adaptive strategies used by farmers in the face of economic and social volatility can deepen economic insecurity and are likely insufficient to protect mental health. Finally, we find that agricultural policies can worsen economic insecurity and other mental health risk factors. Our proposed conceptual model of economic and social pathways relevant for mental health can inform future studies of vulnerable populations and inform health system and policy responses to protect health in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid37489845, year = {2023}, author = {Michalski, P and Marchlewska, M and Górska, P and Rogoza, M and Molenda, Z and Szczepańska, D}, title = {When the sun goes down: low political knowledge and high national narcissism predict climate change conspiracy beliefs.}, journal = {The Journal of social psychology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-17}, doi = {10.1080/00224545.2023.2237176}, pmid = {37489845}, issn = {1940-1183}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The present research empirically examines the links between political knowledge, national narcissism, and climate change conspiracy beliefs. National narcissism (i.e., an unrealistic belief about in-group's greatness which is maladaptive both from the perspective of intra- and inter-group processes) was previously linked to conspiracy beliefs. In this research, we hypothesized that low theoretical political knowledge would boost national narcissism and further lead to adopting climate change conspiracy theories.<br><br>METHODS: This hypothesis was tested in a two-wave study conducted among Polish participants (N = 558).<br><br>RESULTS: We found negative effect of political knowledge on climate change conspiracy beliefs. Moreover, national narcissism mediated between theoretical political knowledge and conspiracy beliefs.<br><br>CONCLUSION: People having low political knowledge are prone to believe in climate change conspiracy theories. Moreover, those less informed about the way political system works in their country are more narcissistically identified with their nation and, thus, deny the climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37489407, year = {2023}, author = {Salvador Costa, MJ and Melo, P}, title = {Community Empowerment Assessment and Community Nursing Diagnosis for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in the Northern Region of the Portuguese Atlantic Coast: A Mixed-Methods Study Using MAIEC Framework.}, journal = {Nursing reports (Pavia, Italy)}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {969-981}, pmid = {37489407}, issn = {2039-4403}, support = {RL3 WP 6-HAC4-CG (NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000067//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; }, abstract = {The Community Intervention and Empowerment Assessment Model (MAIEC) offers a framework for community empowerment in several fields such as Climate Change (CC), the largest health emergency crisis globally, through diagnosis and interventions in Community Health Nursing. This study aims to assess the level of community empowerment in climate change mitigation and adaptation, and to identify nursing diagnosis through the MAIEC clinical decision matrix, within a local intermunicipal association in the northern region of the Portuguese Atlantic Coast. A convergent mixed-methods design was used, applying a focus group technique to a purposive sampling of ten key stakeholders of this community. A Portuguese version of the Empowerment Assessment Rating Scale and a questionnaire were both applied to the same participants, and qualitative and quantitative data generated were analysed using a content analysis technique and an Excel database sheet created using Microsoft Office 365. The analysis of the Portuguese northern community exposed: a low level of community empowerment for mitigation and adaptation to climate change; a nursing diagnosis of community management impairments in several dimensions, such as community process, community participation and community leadership. However, the study confirmed that MAIEC contributed to future community-based solutions, responding to the challenges of climate change, and enabling the planning of interventions to address MAIEC diagnoses in the form of CC-specific training and recommendations for new cooperation approaches from all stakeholders. This study was not registered.}, }
@article {pmid37489402, year = {2023}, author = {Duarte-Aké, F and Us-Camas, R and De-la-Peña, C}, title = {Epigenetic Regulation in Heterosis and Environmental Stress: The Challenge of Producing Hybrid Epigenomes to Face Climate Change.}, journal = {Epigenomes}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {37489402}, issn = {2075-4655}, support = {CB2016//Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog&#xed;a/ ; }, abstract = {Epigenetic regulation has the potential to revolutionize plant breeding and improve crop yields by regulating gene expression in plants. DNA methylation and histone modifications are key epigenetic modifications that can impact plant development, stress responses, productivity, and yields. Higher-yielding crops not only generate greater profits for farmers and seed producers, but also require less land, water, fuel, and fertilizer than traditional crops for equivalent yields. The use of heterosis in crops can influence productivity and food quality, but producing hybrids with superior agronomic traits to their parents remains challenging. However, epigenetic markers, such as histone methylation and acetylation, may help select parental and hybrid combinations with better performances than the parental plants. This review assesses the potential applications of epigenetics in crop breeding and improvement, rendering agriculture more efficient, sustainable, and adaptable to changing environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37485753, year = {2023}, author = {Risely, A and Müller-Klein, N and Schmid, DW and Wilhelm, K and Clutton-Brock, TH and Manser, MB and Sommer, S}, title = {Climate change drives loss of bacterial gut mutualists at the expense of host survival in wild meerkats.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {20}, pages = {5816-5828}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16877}, pmid = {37485753}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DFG SO 428/15-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; 294494//H2020 European Research Council/ ; 742808//H2020 European Research Council/ ; RGP0051/2017//Human Frontier Science Program/ ; KRP 16026//MAVA Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Animals, Wild ; *Gastrointestinal Microbiome/physiology ; *Microbiota ; Bacteria ; }, abstract = {Climate change and climate-driven increases in infectious disease threaten wildlife populations globally. Gut microbial responses are predicted to either buffer or exacerbate the negative impacts of these twin pressures on host populations. However, examples that document how gut microbial communities respond to long-term shifts in climate and associated disease risk, and the consequences for host survival, are rare. Over the past two decades, wild meerkats inhabiting the Kalahari have experienced rapidly rising temperatures, which is linked to the spread of tuberculosis (TB). We show that over the same period, the faecal microbiota of this population has become enriched in Bacteroidia and impoverished in lactic acid bacteria (LAB), a group of bacteria including Lactococcus and Lactobacillus that are considered gut mutualists. These shifts occurred within individuals yet were compounded over generations, and were better explained by mean maximum temperatures than mean rainfall over the previous year. Enriched Bacteroidia were additionally associated with TB exposure and disease, the dry season and poorer body condition, factors that were all directly linked to reduced future survival. Lastly, abundances of LAB taxa were independently and positively linked to future survival, while enriched taxa did not predict survival. Together, these results point towards extreme temperatures driving an expansion of a disease-associated pathobiome and loss of beneficial taxa. Our study provides the first evidence from a longitudinally sampled population that climate change is restructuring wildlife gut microbiota, and that these changes may amplify the negative impacts of climate change through the loss of gut mutualists. While the plastic response of host-associated microbiotas is key for host adaptation under normal environmental fluctuations, extreme temperature increases might lead to a breakdown of coevolved host-mutualist relationships.}, }
@article {pmid37484730, year = {2023}, author = {Saberi, N and Raeisi, A and Gorouhi, MA and Vatandoost, H and Bozorg Omid, F and Hanafi-Bojd, AA}, title = {Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Main Malaria Vectors in an Endemic Area, Southeastern Iran.}, journal = {Iranian journal of public health}, volume = {52}, number = {5}, pages = {1061-1070}, pmid = {37484730}, issn = {2251-6093}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although malaria is endemic in some areas of southeastern Iran, following the successful national malaria elimination plan (NMEP), the local transmission area has been shrunk. This study was aimed to evaluate the effect of climate change on the distribution of main vectors.<br><br>METHODS: All documents related to research investigations conducted in Kerman Province on malaria vectors published during 2000-2019 were retrieved from scientific databases. Spatial distributions of the main vectors were mapped and modeled using MaxEnt ecological model. The future environmental suitability for main vectors was determined under three climate changes scenarios in the 2030s.<br><br>RESULTS: Five malaria vectors are present in Kerman Province. The best ecological niches for these vectors are located in the southern regions of the province under the current climatic condition as well as different climate change scenarios in the 2030s.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change in 2030 will not have a significant impact on the distribution of malaria vectors in the region. Entomological monitoring is advised to update the spatial database of Anopheles vectors of malaria in this malaria receptive region.}, }
@article {pmid37484466, year = {2023}, author = {Lin, Y and Cong, N and Xiao, J and Kou, Y and Li, Y and Yu, X and Qi, G and Gou, C and Bai, Y and Ren, P}, title = {Projecting future aboveground carbon sequestration rate of alpine forest on the eastern Tibetan Plateau in response to climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1212406}, pmid = {37484466}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) of forests serves as an indicator of their carbon sequestration capacity over time, providing insights into the potential carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystems. To explore the long-term Spatiotemporal variation of ACSR in the transitional ecotone of the eastern Tibetan Plateau under climate change scenarios, we utilized a forest landscape model that was parameterized with forest inventory data from the eastern Tibetan Plateau to simulate this ecological function changes. The study found that climate warming had significant effect on forests ACSR in different types of forests. ACSR was significantly reduced (p<0.05) in cold temperate coniferous and temperate coniferous forests, whereas it was significantly increased in deciduous broad-leaved forests. However, the impact of climate warming on evergreen broad-leaved forests was found to be negligible. At the species level, climate warming has mostly suppressed the ACSR of coniferous trees, except for Chinese hemlock. The main dominant species, spruce and fir, have been particularly affected. Conversely, the ACSR of most broad-leaved trees has increased due to climate warming. In addition, at the landscape scale, the ACSR within this region is expected to experience a steady decline after 2031s-2036s. Despite the effects of climate warming, this trend is projected to persist. In conclusion, the forests ACSR in this region will be significantly affected by future climate warming. Our research indicates that climate warming will have a noticeable suppressive effect on conifers. It is imperative that this factor be taken into account when devising forest management plans for the future in this region.}, }
@article {pmid37484300, year = {2023}, author = {Moreno, M and Bertolín, C and Arlanzón, D and Ortiz, P and Ortiz, R}, title = {Climate change, large fires, and cultural landscapes in the mediterranean basin: An analysis in southern Spain.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e16941}, pmid = {37484300}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Understanding the factors that influence fire regimes in Mediterranean climates is essential to reduce their risk. This research uses Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite resources to evaluate recent changes in land surface temperature, precipitation, and vegetation and their effects in the occurrence of large fires in the Mediterranean Basin. The results of the analysis of 335 fire events occurred in southern Spain from 2001 to 2020 show an increase in hazardous meteorological factors linked to droughts and thermal anomalies. The study also examines the potential of preserving traditional landscapes to minimize such risk. In fact, the maintenance and recovering of traditional agro-pastoral activities is an effective option to reduce flammability and increase the resilience of cultural landscapes in hazardous climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37484093, year = {2023}, author = {Böhm, G and Pfister, HR and Doran, R and Ogunbode, CA and Poortinga, W and Tvinnereim, E and Steentjes, K and Mays, C and Bertoldo, R and Sonnberger, M and Pidgeon, N}, title = {Emotional reactions to climate change: a comparison across France, Germany, Norway, and the United Kingdom.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1139133}, pmid = {37484093}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {We present a study of emotional reactions to climate change utilizing representative samples from France, Germany, Norway, and the United Kingdom (UK). Drawing on appraisal theories of emotion, we examine relations between appraisals, emotions, and behavioral intentions in the context of climate change. We compare the four countries concerning emotional differences and commonalities and relate our findings to pertinent models of cultural values. Five distinct emotions were measured: worry, hope, fear, outrage, and guilt. In addition, the survey asked respondents to appraise a set of climate-related statements, such as the causality of climate change, or the efficacy of mitigation efforts. Also, a set of climate-relevant actions, such as willingness to reduce energy consumption or support for climate policies, was assessed. Findings show that appraisals of human causation and moral concern were associated with worry and outrage, and appraisals of efficacy and technological solutions were associated with hope. Worry and outrage are associated with intentions to reduce one's energy consumption, whereas hope and guilt are related to support for policies such as tax and price increases. A country comparison shows that French respondents score high on outrage and worry and tend to engage in individual behaviors to mitigate climate change, whereas Norwegian respondents score high on hope and show a tendency to support policies of cost increase. Generally, worry is the most and guilt the least intense emotion. Moral concerns and perceived collective efficacy of one's country in addressing climate change are relatively strong in France, while beliefs in human causation and in negative impacts of climate change prevail in Germany, and confidence in technological solutions are prevalent in Norway. In sum, findings reveal typical patterns of emotional responses in the four countries and confirm systematic associations between emotions and appraisals as well as between emotions and behaviors. Relating these findings to models of cultural values reveals that Norway, endorsing secular and egalitarian values, is characterized by hope and confidence in technological solutions, whereas France and Germany, emphasizing relatively more hierarchical and traditional values, are rather characterized by fear, outrage, and support for behavioral restrictions imposed by climate change policies.}, }
@article {pmid37483780, year = {2023}, author = {Guo, X and Arshad, MU and Zhao, Y and Gong, Y and Li, H}, title = {Effects of climate change and grazing intensity on grassland productivity-A case study of Inner Mongolia, China.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {e17814}, pmid = {37483780}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {In the last 30 years, grassland productivity has declined seriously due to climate variations and unreasonable human activities. Therefore, to analyze the impact of different factors on grassland productivity, we selected three grassland stations of the Typical Steppe from west to east and collected 38 years of data. The Pearson Correlation and Fixed Effect Model were used to analyze the impact of precipitation, temperature, and grazing intensity on grassland productivity. The empirical results show that precipitation positively and significantly affected grassland productivity. The effects of climate change are more significant than human activities, but the impact of temperature is greater than precipitation. The synergy between precipitation and temperature was greater than between precipitation and temperature separately. In addition, the effects of climate change and human activities on grassland productivity have evident regional heterogeneity. The variation trend gradually increases from west to east in factors that affect grassland productivity. Therefore, we suggest some implications for grassland risk management, such as utilizing some financial products for climate risk and focusing on the synergy index to design financial products, such as design weather derivatives. Lastly, we should strengthen the research on the relationship between climate change and grassland productivity to provide a scientific basis for revealing the intrinsic relationship between climate, human activities, and grassland productivity.}, }
@article {pmid37483305, year = {2023}, author = {Simmer, RA and Jansen, EJ and Patterson, KJ and Schnoor, JL}, title = {Climate Change and the Sea: A Major Disruption in Steady State and the Master Variables.}, journal = {ACS environmental Au}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {195-208}, pmid = {37483305}, issn = {2694-2518}, support = {P30 ES005605/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, humans have burned enormous quantities of coal, oil, and natural gas, rivaling nature's elemental cycles of C, N, and S. The result has been a disruption in a steady state of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, a warming of the planet, and changes in master variables (temperature, pH, and pε) of the sea affecting critical physical, chemical, and biological reactions. Humans have also produced copious quantities of N and P fertilizers producing widespread coastal hypoxia and low dissolved oxygen conditions, which now threaten even the open ocean. Consequently, our massive alteration of state variables diminishes coral reefs, fisheries, and marine ecosystems, which are the foundation of life on Earth. We point to a myriad of actions and alternatives which will help to stem the tide of climate change and its effects on the sea while, at the same time, creating a more sustainable future for humans and ecosystems alike.}, }
@article {pmid37481297, year = {2023}, author = {Brown, A and Collado, S and Evans, GW and Loebach, JE}, title = {Designing learning environments for promoting young people's constructive coping with climate change.}, journal = {Advances in child development and behavior}, volume = {65}, number = {}, pages = {169-198}, doi = {10.1016/bs.acdb.2023.05.005}, pmid = {37481297}, issn = {0065-2407}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Learning ; Adaptation, Psychological ; Educational Status ; Schools ; }, abstract = {This chapter first summarizes how the consequences of global climate change (GCC) can harm young people's well-being through physical health impacts and awareness of GCC. We then outline how youth may cope with GCC by denying the problem, distancing themselves from it, or taking individual actions. However, the coping strategy shown to have the best mental well-being outcomes relates to collective actions and agency. Next, an examination of school-based GCC interventions reveals that engaging, participatory approaches may be more effective in promoting positive outcomes for youth and climate action. Our main contribution is a discussion of how the evidence-based design of learning environments presents an undeveloped but potentially effective way to enhance interventions for the development of constructive GCC coping strategies among youth. Utilizing environmental affordances and design as scaffolding can guide the design of learning environments that give youth opportunities for active cognitive, emotional, and physical engagement with climate change education. Natural environments may be particularly effective in supporting active engagement and pathways to constructive coping. More research is needed to understand what design features underly these pathways to improved well-being and GCC coping strategies that may have positive implications for youth climate action.}, }
@article {pmid37480516, year = {2023}, author = {Tiwari, LD and Kurtz-Sohn, A and Bdolach, E and Fridman, E}, title = {Crops under past diversification and ongoing climate change: more than just selection of nuclear genes for flowering.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {74}, number = {18}, pages = {5431-5440}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erad283}, pmid = {37480516}, issn = {1460-2431}, support = {Horizon2020/CAPITALISE AMD-862201-2//Israel Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Diversification and breeding following domestication and under current climate change across the globe are the two most significant evolutionary events experienced by major crops. Diversification of crops from their wild ancestors has favored dramatic changes in the sensitivity of the plants to the environment, particularly significantly in transducing light inputs to the circadian clock, which has allowed the growth of major crops in the relatively short growing season experienced in the Northern Hemisphere. Historically, mutants and the mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) have facilitated the identification and the cloning of genes that underlie major changes of the clock and the regulation of flowering. Recent studies have suggested that the thermal plasticity of the circadian clock output, and not just the core genes that follow temperature compensation, has also been under selection during diversification and breeding. Wild alleles that accelerate output rhythmicity could be beneficial for crop resilience. Furthermore, wild alleles with beneficial and flowering-independent effects under stress indicate their possible role in maintaining a balanced source-sink relationship, thereby allowing productivity under climatic change. Because the chloroplast genome also regulates the plasticity of the clock output, mapping populations including cytonuclear interactions should be utilized within an integrated field and clock phenomics framework. In this review, we highlight the need to integrate physiological and developmental approaches (physio-devo) to gain a better understanding when re-domesticating wild gene alleles into modern cultivars to increase their robustness under abiotic heat and drought stresses.}, }
@article {pmid37479863, year = {2023}, author = {Duyar, HA and Bayrakli, B and Altuntas, M}, title = {Effects of floods resulting from climate change on metal concentrations in whiting (Merlangius merlangus euxinus) and red mullet (Mullus barbatus) and health risk assessment.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {8}, pages = {979}, pmid = {37479863}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Floods ; Environmental Monitoring ; Metals ; *Mercury ; Risk Assessment ; *Perciformes ; *Smegmamorpha ; }, abstract = {In this research, the effect of flooding caused by heavy precipitation, postulated to be one of the consequences of climate change, on toxic metal concentrations in two demersal fish species, whiting (Merlangius merlangus euxinus) and red mullet (Mullus barbatus), was investigated. For both demersal fish species, concentrations of Hg, Fe, Cd, Pb, Se, Al, Zn, Cu, Sr, B, Cr, Mn, Ni, Ba, and Li were compared between samples taken from Türkeli, Sinop, Black Sea, before and after the flood event in August 2021. Hg, Mn, Se, Li, B, and Sr metal concentrations increased in whiting and in red mullet in the post-flood samples. Estimated daily intake, target hazard quotient, cancer risk, the maximum allowable daily consumption rate and minimum daily requirements, and health risk analyses indicated that daily consumption of whiting and red mullet was risky due to the heavy metal Hg level after the flood. In addition, it was found that the samples had higher levels of Se than Hg, Se/Hg ratios were above 1, and Se-HBV were positive. Therefore, whiting and red mullet fishing should be restricted for a limited time period in the region.}, }
@article {pmid37479371, year = {2023}, author = {Sisodiya, SM}, title = {Climate change and neurology: time to talk and to act.}, journal = {The Lancet. Neurology}, volume = {22}, number = {8}, pages = {656-657}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-4422(23)00235-1}, pmid = {37479371}, issn = {1474-4465}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Neurology ; }, }
@article {pmid37478948, year = {2023}, author = {Tan, L and Zhang, X and Qi, J and Sun, D and Marek, GW and Feng, P and Li, B and Liu, L and Li, B and Srinivasan, R and Chen, Y}, title = {Assessment of the sustainability of groundwater utilization and crop production under optimized irrigation strategies in the North China Plain under future climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {899}, number = {}, pages = {165619}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165619}, pmid = {37478948}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crop Production ; *Groundwater ; Water ; China ; Triticum ; Agricultural Irrigation ; }, abstract = {Over-exploitation of groundwater due to intensive irrigation and anticipated climate change pose severe threats to the water and food security worldwide, particularly in the North China Plain (NCP). Limited irrigation has been recognized as an effective way to improve crop water productivity and slow the rapid decline of groundwater levels. Whether optimized limited irrigation strategies could achieve a balance between groundwater pumping and grain production in the NCP under future climate change deserves further study. In this study, an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate climate change impacts on shallow groundwater levels and crop production under limited irrigation strategies to suggest optimal irrigation management practices under future climate conditions in the NCP. The simulations of eleven limited irrigation strategies for winter wheat with targeted irrigations at different growth stages and with irrigated or rainfed summer maize were compared with future business-as-usual management. Climate change impacts showed that mean wheat (maize) yield under adequate irrigation was expected to increase by 13.2% (4.9%) during the middle time period (2041-2070) and by 11.2% (4.6%) during the late time period (2071-2100) under three SSPs compared to the historical period (1971-2000). Mean decline rate of shallow groundwater level slowed by approximately 1 m a[-1] during the entire future period (2041-2100) under three SSPs with a greater reduction for SSP5-8.5. The average contribution rate of future climate toward the balance of shallow groundwater pumping and replenishment was 62.9%. Based on the simulated crop yields and decline rate of shallow groundwater level under the future climate, the most appropriate limited irrigation was achieved by applying irrigation during the jointing stage of wheat with rainfed maize, which could achieve the groundwater recovery and sustainable food production.}, }
@article {pmid37478921, year = {2023}, author = {Zheng, J and Zhou, Z and Liu, J and Yan, Z and Xu, CY and Jiang, Y and Jia, Y and Wang, H}, title = {A novel framework for investigating the mechanisms of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the evolution of hydrological drought.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {900}, number = {}, pages = {165685}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165685}, pmid = {37478921}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and anthropogenic activity are the primary drivers of water cycle changes. Hydrological droughts are caused by a shortage of surface and/or groundwater resources caused by climate change and/or anthropogenic activity. Existing hydrological models have primarily focused on simulating natural water cycle processes, while limited research has investigated the influence of anthropogenic activities on water cycle processes. This study proposes a novel framework that integrates a distributed hydrological model and an attribution analysis method to assess the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on hydrological drought The distributed dualistic water cycle model was applied to the Fuhe River Basin (FRB), and it generated a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient > 0.85 with a relative error of <5 %. Excluding the year with extreme drought conditions, our analysis revealed that climate change negatively impacted the average drought duration (-105.5 %) and intensity (-23.6 %) because of increasing precipitation. However, anthropogenic activities continued to contribute positively to the drought, accounting for 5.5 % and 123.6 % of the average drought duration and intensity, respectively, because of increased water consumption. When accounting for extreme drought years, our results suggested that climate change has contributed negatively to the average duration of drought (-113.2 %) but positively to its intensity (7.8 %). Further, we found that anthropogenic activities contributed positively to both the average drought duration and intensity (13.2 % and 92.2 %, respectively). While climate change can potentially mitigate hydrological drought in the FRB by boosting precipitation levels, its overall effect may exacerbate drought through the amplification of extreme climate events resulting from global climate change. Therefore, greater attention should be paid to the effects of extreme drought.}, }
@article {pmid37478581, year = {2023}, author = {Di Cicco, M and Di Lorenzo, T and Fiasca, B and Galmarini, E and Vaccarelli, I and Cerasoli, F and Tabilio Di Camillo, A and Galassi, DMP}, title = {Some like it hot: Thermal preference of the groundwater amphipod Niphargus longicaudatus (Costa, 1851) and climate change implications.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {116}, number = {}, pages = {103654}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2023.103654}, pmid = {37478581}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Amphipoda ; Biodiversity ; *Groundwater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Groundwater is a crucial resource for humans and the environment, but its global human demand currently exceeds available volumes by 3.5 times. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this situation by increasing the frequency of droughts along with human impacts on groundwater ecosystems. Despite prior research on the quantitative effects of climate change on groundwater, the direct impacts on groundwater biodiversity, especially obligate groundwater species, remain largely unexplored. Therefore, investigating the potential impacts of climate change, including groundwater temperature changes, is crucial for the survival of obligate groundwater species. This study aimed to determine the thermal niche breadth of the crustacean amphipod species Niphargus longicaudatus by using the chronic method. We found that N. longicaudatus has a wide thermal niche with a natural performance range of 7-9 °C, which corresponds to the thermal regime this species experiences within its distribution range in Italy. The observed range of preferred temperature (PT) was different from the mean annual temperature of the sites from which the species has been collected, challenging the idea that groundwater species are only adapted to narrow temperature ranges. Considering the significant threats of climate change to groundwater ecosystems, these findings provide crucial information for the conservation of obligate groundwater species, suggesting that some of them may be more resilient to temperature changes than previously thought. Understanding the fundamental thermal niche of these species can inform conservation efforts and management strategies to protect groundwater ecosystems and their communities.}, }
@article {pmid37476162, year = {2023}, author = {Otani, H and Okazaki, K and Hasegawa, H}, title = {Editorial: Environmental exercise physiology towards global warming: challenges, applications and future trends.}, journal = {Frontiers in sports and active living}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {1243587}, doi = {10.3389/fspor.2023.1243587}, pmid = {37476162}, issn = {2624-9367}, }
@article {pmid37475957, year = {2023}, author = {Maslin, MA and Lang, J and Harvey, F}, title = {A short history of the successes and failures of the international climate change negotiations.}, journal = {UCL open. Environment}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {e059}, pmid = {37475957}, issn = {2632-0886}, abstract = {The last 35 years have been a period of intense and continuous international negotiations to deal with climate change. During the same period of time humanity has doubled the amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. There has, however, been progress and some notable successes in the negotiations. In 2015, at COP21 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 196 countries adopted the Paris Agreement stating that they would limit global temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and would pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The first review of the Paris Agreement was at COP26 in Glasgow with many countries pledging to go to net zero emissions by the middle of the century. But currently these pledges, if fulfilled, will only limit the global average temperature to between 2.4°C and 2.8°C. At COP27 in Egypt the core agreements from the Glasgow Climate Pact were maintained and countries finally agreed to set up a loss and damage facility - although details of who will provide the finance and who can claim are still be to be worked out. This article reviews the key moments in the history of international climate change negotiations and discusses what the key objectives are for future COP meetings.}, }
@article {pmid37475600, year = {2023}, author = {Hoffmann, AA and Sgrò, CM and van Heerwaarden, B}, title = {Testing evolutionary adaptation potential under climate change in invertebrates (mostly Drosophila): findings, limitations and directions.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {226}, number = {14}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.245749}, pmid = {37475600}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; *Drosophila ; *Climate Change ; Invertebrates ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Acclimatization ; Biological Evolution ; }, abstract = {A (quite) large set of experiments has been undertaken to assess the potential for evolutionary changes in invertebrates under current and future climate change conditions. These experimental studies have established some key principles that could affect climate change adaptation, yet there remain substantial obstacles in reaching a meaningful predictive framework. This Review starts with exploring some of the traits considered in individuals and approaches used in assessing evolutionary adaptation relevant to climate, and some of the core findings and their substantial limitations, with a focus on Drosophila. We interpret results in terms of adaptive limits based on population processes versus fundamental mechanistic limits of organisms. We then consider the challenges in moving towards a predictive framework and implications of the findings obtained to date, while also emphasizing the current limited context and the need to broaden it if links to changes in natural populations are to be realized.}, }
@article {pmid37470407, year = {2023}, author = {Mousley, JJ and Simpson-Yap, S and Yu, M and Fletcher, D and Dunne, B}, title = {Australian and New Zealand surgeons' attitudes to our role in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {ANZ journal of surgery}, volume = {93}, number = {11}, pages = {2559-2561}, doi = {10.1111/ans.18607}, pmid = {37470407}, issn = {1445-2197}, mesh = {Humans ; New Zealand ; *Climate Change ; Australia ; *Surgeons ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid37470029, year = {2023}, author = {Koskenpato, K and Lehikoinen, A and Morosinotto, C and Gunko, R and Karell, P}, title = {Regional variation in climate change alters the range-wide distribution of colour polymorphism in a wild bird.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {e10311}, pmid = {37470029}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {According to Gloger's rule, animal colouration is expected to be darker in wetter and warmer climates. Such environmental clines are predicted to occur in colour polymorphic species and to be shaped by selection if colour morphs represent adaptations to different environments. We studied if the distribution of the colour polymorphic tawny owl (Strix aluco) morphs (a pheomelanic brown and a pale grey) across Europe follow the predictions of Gloger's rule and if there is a temporal change in the geographical patterns corresponding to regional variations in climate change. We used data on tawny owl museum skin specimen collections. First, we investigated long-term spatiotemporal variation in the probability of observing the colour morphs in different climate zones. Second, we studied if the probability of observing the colour morphs was associated with general climatic conditions. Third, we studied if weather fluctuations prior to the finding year of an owl explain colour morph in each climate zone. The brown tawny owl morph was historically more common than the grey morph in every studied climate zone. Over time, the brown morph has become rarer in the temperate and Mediterranean zone, whereas it has first become rarer but then again more common in the boreal zone. Based on general climatic conditions, winter and summer temperatures were positively and negatively associated with the proportion of brown morph, respectively. Winter precipitation was negatively associated with the proportion of brown morph. The effects of 5-year means of weather on the probability to observe a brown morph differed between climate zones, indicating region-dependent effect of climate change and weather on tawny owl colouration. To conclude, tawny owl colouration does not explicitly follow Gloger's rule, implying a time and space-dependent complex system shaped by many factors. We provide novel insights into how the geographic distribution of pheomelanin-based colour polymorphism is changing.}, }
@article {pmid37469672, year = {2023}, author = {McAuliffe, GA and Lynch, J and Cain, M and Buckingham, S and Rees, RM and Collins, AL and Allen, M and Pierrehumbert, R and Lee, MRF and Takahashi, T}, title = {Are single global warming potential impact assessments adequate for carbon footprints of agri-food systems?.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {18}, number = {8}, pages = {084014}, pmid = {37469672}, issn = {1748-9326}, support = {205212/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The vast majority of agri-food climate-based sustainability analyses use global warming potential (GWP100) as an impact assessment, usually in isolation; however, in recent years, discussions have criticised the 'across-the-board' application of GWP100 in Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs), particularly of food systems which generate large amounts of methane (CH4) and considered whether reporting additional and/or alternative metrics may be more applicable to certain circumstances or research questions (e.g. Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP)). This paper reports a largescale sensitivity analysis using a pasture-based beef production system (a high producer of CH4 emissions) as an exemplar to compare various climatatic impact assessments: CO2-equivalents using GWP100 and GTP100, and 'CO2-warming-equivalents' using 'GWP Star', or GWP*. The inventory for this system was compiled using data from the UK Research and Innovation National Capability, the North Wyke Farm Platform, in Devon, SW England. LCAs can have an important bearing on: (i) policymakers' decisions; (ii) farmer management decisions; (iii) consumers' purchasing habits; and (iv) wider perceptions of whether certain activities can be considered 'sustainable' or not; it is, therefore, the responsibility of LCA practitioners and scientists to ensure that subjective decisions are tested as robustly as possible through appropriate sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We demonstrate herein that the choice of climate impact assessment has dramatic effects on interpretation, with GWP100 and GTP100 producing substantially different results due to their different treatments of CH4 in the context of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents. Given its dynamic nature and previously proven strong correspondence with climate models, out of the three assessments covered, GWP* provides the most complete coverage of the temporal evolution of temperature change for different greenhouse gas emissions. We extend previous discussions on the limitations of static emission metrics and encourage LCA practitioners to consider due care and attention where additional information or dynamic approaches may prove superior, scientifically speaking, particularly in cases of decision support.}, }
@article {pmid37469332, year = {2023}, author = {Hsieh, SL and Shultz, JM and Briggs, F and Espinel, Z and Shapiro, LT}, title = {Climate Change and the Urgent Need to Prepare Persons With Multiple Sclerosis for Extreme Hurricanes.}, journal = {International journal of MS care}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {152-156}, pmid = {37469332}, issn = {1537-2073}, abstract = {Climate change is contributing to increasingly hazardous tropical cyclones that endanger persons living in susceptible coastal and island communities. People living with chronic illness, including multiple sclerosis (MS), face unique challenges and vulnerabilities when exposed to hurricane hazards. Disaster and emergency preparedness requires a customized approach that considers the necessary adaptations to accommodate the mobility, self-care, sensory, cognitive, and communication impairments of persons living with MS. Related considerations include the potential for worsening neurologic signs and symptoms during and after a catastrophic storm. The impact of emotional and financial stresses, as well as disruptions in health care delivery, on this population are also key concerns. This paper addresses the challenges faced by individuals with MS in advance of, during, and in the aftermath of extreme storms. We propose new guidelines on how health care professionals can assist persons with MS when creating tailored disaster readiness and response plans.}, }
@article {pmid37469096, year = {2023}, author = {Muhammad, A and Aziz, NI}, title = {Patient perspectives in the face of climate change: improving maternal and child health outcomes through patient-centered design.}, journal = {JPMA. The Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association}, volume = {73}, number = {7}, pages = {1572}, doi = {10.47391/JPMA.9244}, pmid = {37469096}, issn = {0030-9982}, mesh = {Humans ; Child ; *Climate Change ; *Family ; Outcome Assessment, Health Care ; Patient-Centered Care ; }, }
@article {pmid37468615, year = {2023}, author = {Cammarano, D and Olesen, JE and Helming, K and Foyer, CH and Schönhart, M and Brunori, G and Bandru, KK and Bindi, M and Padovan, G and Thorsen, BJ and Freund, F and Abalos, D}, title = {Models can enhance science-policy-society alignments for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {4}, number = {8}, pages = {632-635}, pmid = {37468615}, issn = {2662-1355}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid37468513, year = {2023}, author = {Da Cruz, TV and Machado, RL}, title = {Measuring climate change's impact on different sugarcane varieties production in the South of Goiás.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {11637}, pmid = {37468513}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {Edital 18/2020//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; }, abstract = {A crucial aspect analysed during the last years, aiming to improve sugarcane production, is the impact of climate change on sugarcane productivity. One of the strategies to mitigate climate change's impact on sugarcane yield is the development of new varieties known to positively affect crop production. This paper analysed how climate change impacts sugarcane production regarding the different planted varieties. Data regarding sugarcane harvest were collected from a cooperative in the south of Goiás state-Brazil, the second biggest national sugarcane producer. Results indicate that climate impact on sugarcane yield is irrelevant when controlling for different varieties. Considering the results presented in this work, the Brazilian government should keep the incentives for the development of new sugarcane varieties and, at the same time, spur sugarcane producers to use the new sugarcane varieties. The results imply that if the variety is correctly chosen, sugarcane can be produced without harming the environment, contributing to reaching SDG 15. Moreover, it is less probable that an adverse climatic event will destroy the planted area, preventing sugarcane producers from severe loss and contributing to achieving SDGs number 1 and 2.}, }
@article {pmid37468444, year = {2023}, author = {van Valkengoed, AM and Perlaviciute, G and Steg, L}, title = {From believing in climate change to adapting to climate change: The role of risk perception and efficacy beliefs.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/risa.14193}, pmid = {37468444}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {Are people more inclined to adapt to climate change if they believe that climate change is real, caused by human behavior, and/or brings negative consequences? Previous studies provided inconclusive results on the relationship between climate change perceptions and adaptation behavior. Using a longitudinal approach, we examined whether risk perception, self-efficacy, and outcome efficacy play a role in how and when climate change perceptions are associated with adaptation to pluvial flooding and heat stress in the Netherlands. As expected, stronger climate change perceptions were associated with stronger perceptions of climate-related risks, which in turn lead to stronger intentions to implement adaptation measures. Yet, neither climate change perceptions nor risk perception were associated with whether people had actually implemented adaptation measures during a 1-year period. Contrary to common assumptions in the literature, higher levels of perceived self-efficacy and outcome efficacy did not strengthen the relations between climate change perceptions and adaptation intentions and behavior. Rather, higher levels of self-efficacy and outcome efficacy were directly related to stronger intentions to take adaptive measures and taking those measures within a period of 1 year. Exploratory analyses offered initial support for a sequential model where climate change perceptions lead to higher levels of perceptions of specific climate-related risks, which in turn lead to stronger self-efficacy and outcome efficacy, ultimately increasing adaptation intentions, but not actual behavior. Strategies to promote adaptation behavior could aim to remove behavioral barriers to increase self-efficacy, and strengthen outcome efficacy, enabling people to act on their climate change perceptions.}, }
@article {pmid37468442, year = {2023}, author = {Borges, FO and Sampaio, E and Santos, CP and Rosa, R}, title = {Climate-Change Impacts on Cephalopods: A Meta-Analysis.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {63}, number = {6}, pages = {1240-1265}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icad102}, pmid = {37468442}, issn = {1557-7023}, support = {SFRH/BD/147//Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation/ ; 422,037,984//DFG/ ; PTDC/CTA-AMB/30//Max Planck Society/ ; //MCTES/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fisheries ; Aquatic Organisms ; Climate Change ; Decapodiformes ; *Octopodiformes ; }, abstract = {Aside from being one of the most fascinating groups of marine organisms, cephalopods play a major role in marine food webs, both as predators and as prey, while representing key living economic assets, namely for artisanal and subsistence fisheries worldwide. Recent research suggests that cephalopods are benefitting from ongoing environmental changes and the overfishing of certain fish stocks (i.e., of their predators and/or competitors), putting forward the hypothesis that this group may be one of the few "winners" of climate change. While many meta-analyses have demonstrated negative and overwhelming consequences of ocean warming (OW), acidification (OA), and their combination for a variety of marine taxa, such a comprehensive analysis is lacking for cephalopod molluscs. In this context, the existing literature was surveyed for peer-reviewed articles featuring the sustained (≥24 h) and controlled exposure of cephalopod species (Cephalopoda class) to these factors, applying a comparative framework of mixed-model meta-analyses (784 control-treatment comparisons, from 47 suitable articles). Impacts on a wide set of biological categories at the individual level (e.g., survival, metabolism, behavior, cell stress, growth) were evaluated and contrasted across different ecological attributes (i.e., taxonomic lineages, climates, and ontogenetic stages). Contrary to what is commonly assumed, OW arises as a clear threat to cephalopods, while OA exhibited more restricted impacts. In fact, OW impacts were ubiquitous across different stages of ontogeny, taxonomical lineages (i.e., octopuses, squids, and cuttlefish). These results challenge the assumption that cephalopods benefit from novel ocean conditions, revealing an overarching negative impact of OW in this group. Importantly, we also identify lingering literature gaps, showing that most studies to date focus on OW and early life stages of mainly temperate species. Our results raise the need to consolidate experimental efforts in a wider variety of taxa, climate regions, life stages, and other key environmental stressors, such as deoxygenation and hypoxia, to better understand how cephalopods will cope with future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37467992, year = {2023}, author = {Zhao, R and Li, X and Wang, Y and Xu, Z and Xiong, M and Jia, Q and Li, F}, title = {Assessing resilience of sustainability to climate change in China's cities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {898}, number = {}, pages = {165568}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165568}, pmid = {37467992}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Achieving sustainability and coping with climate change are the greatest challenges to human survival and harmonious human-nature relationship. However, there is a lack of research on quantifying the resilience of sustainability to climate change over space and time. Here, a quantification method was developed to evaluate resilient performance of sustainability (includes economic, social, and environmental sub-resilient performance and resilient performance index) to climate change, and performed the first demonstration in China's 280 cities. It was found that resilient performance index of China's sustainability to climate change improved from 2005 to 2017, especially in Southwest China, but 6.8 % of cities showed a decreasing trend. With the improvement of the resilient performance index, the synergy degree among economic, social, and environmental sub-resilient performance scores increased. Economic development and sustainability improvement related to a higher but more disparity of the resilient performance index. This study encourages researchers and policymakers worldwide to focus on resilience of sustainability to climate change to help achieve sustained development and prosperity under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37467990, year = {2023}, author = {Guo, L and Yu, Z and Li, Y and Xie, Z and Wang, G and Liu, J and Hu, X and Wu, J and Liu, X and Jin, J}, title = {Stimulation of primed carbon under climate change corresponds with phosphorus mineralization in the rhizosphere of soybean.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {899}, number = {}, pages = {165580}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165580}, pmid = {37467990}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Rhizosphere ; *Glycine max/metabolism ; Carbon/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Phosphorus/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Soil/chemistry ; Plants/metabolism ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Elevated CO2 and temperature likely alter photosynthetic carbon inputs to soils, which may stimulate soil microbial activity to accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC), liberating more phosphorus (P) into the soil solution. However, this hypothesis on the association of SOC decomposition and P transformation in the plant rhizosphere requires robust soil biochemical evidence, which is critical to nutrient management for the mitigation of soil quality against climate change. This study investigated the microbial functional genes relevant to P mineralization together with priming processes of SOC in the rhizosphere of soybean grown under climate change. Soybean plants were grown under elevated CO2 (eCO2, 700 ppm) combined with warming (+ 2 °C above ambient temperature) in open-top chambers. Photosynthetic carbon flow in the plant-soil continuum was traced with [13]CO2 labeling. The eCO2 plus warming treatment increased the primed carbon (C) by 43 % but decreased the NaHCO3-extratable organic P by 33 %. Furthermore, NaHCO3-Po was negatively correlated with phosphatase activity and microbial biomass C. Elevated CO2 increased the abundances of C degradation genes, such as abfA and ManB, and P mineralization genes, such as gcd, phoC and phnK. The results suggested that increased photosynthetic carbon inputs to the rhizosphere of plants under eCO2 plus warming stimulated the microbial population and metabolic functions of both SOC and organic P mineralization. There is a positive relationship between the rhizosphere priming effect and P mineralization. The response of microorganisms to plant-C flow is decisive for coupled C and P cycles, which are likely accelerated under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37467323, year = {2023}, author = {Hourdin, F and Ferster, B and Deshayes, J and Mignot, J and Musat, I and Williamson, D}, title = {Toward machine-assisted tuning avoiding the underestimation of uncertainty in climate change projections.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {29}, pages = {eadf2758}, pmid = {37467323}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Documenting the uncertainty of climate change projections is a fundamental objective of the inter-comparison exercises organized to feed into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. Usually, each modeling center contributes to these exercises with one or two configurations of its climate model, corresponding to a particular choice of "free parameter" values, resulting from a long and often tedious "model tuning" phase. How much uncertainty is omitted by this selection and how might readers of IPCC reports and users of climate projections be misled by its omission? We show here how recent machine learning approaches can transform the way climate model tuning is approached, opening the way to a simultaneous acceleration of model improvement and parametric uncertainty quantification. We show how an automatic selection of model configurations defined by different values of free parameters can produce different "warming worlds," all consistent with present-day observations of the climate system.}, }
@article {pmid37465861, year = {2023}, author = {Rodríguez-Escolar, I and Hernández-Lambraño, RE and Sánchez-Agudo, J&#xc1; and Collado, M and Pérez-Pérez, P and Morchón, R}, title = {Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {37465861}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease whose distribution is linked to the presence of culicid mosquitoes. Spain and Portugal are considered endemic countries; however, the distribution of dirofilariosis is not uniform. Our aim was to develop a more accurate risk model of dirofilariosis transmission for the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain). To do this, we used a set of key variables related to parasite transmission: the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated via an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of Dirofilaria spp. generations. The resulting model was validated with the prevalence and geolocation of D. immitis-infected dogs from all provinces and districts. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. A quantitative estimate of the risk of infection by Dirofilaria spp. was obtained at a resolution of 1 km[2]. The entire analyzed territory was susceptible to contact with the parasite. The highest risk of infection was found throughout the eastern coastal strip and the south of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, as well as in the areas surrounding the basins of the main rivers, and the lowest risk was located in the higher-altitude areas. We found a robust and positive relationship between the risk of dirofilariosis and the observed prevalence of infested dogs in the study area (β ± SE = 3.32 ± 1.43 p < 0.05). In 2080, the percentage of territory gain for Cx. pipiens will increase to 49.98%, which will increase the risk of infection. This new model provides a high predictive value for the current and predicted presence and risk and can serve as a tool for the management and control of dirofilariosis.}, }
@article {pmid37464115, year = {2023}, author = {Goshua, A and Sampath, V and Efobi, JA and Nadeau, K}, title = {The Role of Climate Change in Asthma.}, journal = {Advances in experimental medicine and biology}, volume = {1426}, number = {}, pages = {25-41}, pmid = {37464115}, issn = {0065-2598}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Asthma/epidemiology ; Allergens/adverse effects ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Pollen/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Human activity and increased use of fossil fuels have led to climate change. These changes are adversely affecting human health, including increasing the risk of developing asthma. Global temperatures are predicted to increase in the future. In 2019, asthma affected an estimated 262 million people and caused 455,000 deaths. These rates are expected to increase. Climate change by intensifying climate events such as drought, flooding, wildfires, sand storms, and thunderstorms has led to increases in air pollution, pollen season length, pollen and mold concentration, and allergenicity of pollen. These effects bear implications for the onset, exacerbation, and management of childhood asthma and are increasing health inequities. Global efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change are urgently needed with the goal of limiting global warming to between 1.5 and 2.0 °C of preindustrial times as per the 2015 Paris Agreement. Clinicians need to take an active role in these efforts in order to prevent further increases in asthma prevalence. There is a role for clinician advocacy in both the clinical setting as well as in local, regional, and national settings to install measures to control and curb the escalating disease burden of childhood asthma in the setting of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37464044, year = {2023}, author = {Dangour, A}, title = {Why Wellcome is tackling the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Nature medicine}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {1597}, pmid = {37464044}, issn = {1546-170X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid37464036, year = {2023}, author = {Campbell-Lendrum, D and Neville, T and Schweizer, C and Neira, M}, title = {Climate change and health: three grand challenges.}, journal = {Nature medicine}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {1631-1638}, pmid = {37464036}, issn = {1546-170X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Delivery of Health Care ; Government Programs ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Climate change may be the greatest health threat of the twenty-first century, impacting lives both directly and indirectly, through undermining the environmental and social determinants of health. Rapid action to decarbonize economies and build resilience is justified on health, human rights, environmental and economic grounds. While the necessary health response is wide ranging, it can largely be encapsulated within three grand challenges: (i) promote actions that both reduce carbon emissions and improve health; (ii) build better, more climate-resilient and low-carbon health systems; and (iii) implement public health measures to protect from the range of climate risks to health. The health community can make a unique and powerful contribution, applying its trusted voice to climate leadership and advocacy, providing evidence for action, taking responsibility for climate resilience and decarbonization of healthcare systems, and guiding other sectors whose actions impact substantially on health, carbon emissions and climate resilience.}, }
@article {pmid37462597, year = {2023}, author = {Giudice, C and Rublee, CS}, title = {Climate Change and Health: Addressing Gaps Through Patient Education in the Emergency Department.}, journal = {Annals of emergency medicine}, volume = {82}, number = {5}, pages = {611-614}, doi = {10.1016/j.annemergmed.2023.05.015}, pmid = {37462597}, issn = {1097-6760}, }
@article {pmid37459989, year = {2023}, author = {Chakraborty, R and Purakayastha, TJ and Pendall, E and Dey, S and Jain, N and Kumar, S}, title = {Nitrification and urease inhibitors mitigate global warming potential and ammonia volatilization from urea in rice-wheat system in India: A field to lab experiment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {898}, number = {}, pages = {165479}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165479}, pmid = {37459989}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Triticum/metabolism ; *Oryza/metabolism ; Ammonia/metabolism ; Urease/chemistry ; *Greenhouse Gases/metabolism ; Global Warming ; Urea/chemistry ; Nitrification ; Volatilization ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {The efficacy of alternative nitrogenous fertilizers for mitigating greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions from a rice-wheat cropping system in northern India was addressed in a laboratory incubation experiment using soil from a 10-year residue management field experiment (crop residue removal, CRR, vs. incorporation, CRI). Neem coated urea (NCU), standard urea (U), urea ammonium sulfate (UAS), and two alternative fertilizers, urea + urease inhibitor NBPT (UUI) and urea + urease inhibitor NBPT + nitrification inhibitor DMPSA (UUINI) were compared to non-fertilized controls for four weeks in incubation under anaerobic condition. Effects of fertilizers on global warming potential (GWP) and ammonia volatilization were dependent on residue treatment. Relative to standard urea, NCU reduced GWP by 11 % in CRI but not significantly in CRR; conversely, UAS reduced GWP by 12 % in CRR but not significantly in CRI. UUI and UUINI reduced GWP in both residue treatments and were more effective in CRI (21 % and 26 %) than CRR (15 % and 14 %). Relative to standard urea, NCU increased ammonia volatilization by 8 % in CRI but not significantly in CRR. Ammonia volatilization was reduced most strongly by UUI (40 % in CRI and 37 % in CRR); it was reduced 28-29 % by UUINI and 12-15 % by UAS. Overall, the urease inhibitor, alone and in combination with the nitrification inhibitor, was more effective in mitigating greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions than NCU. However, these products need to be tested in field settings to validate findings from the controlled laboratory experiment.}, }
@article {pmid37459947, year = {2023}, author = {Hou, G and Zhan, B}, title = {Relationship among marine pollution, outdoor activities, and climate change: Fresh evidence from panel threshold regression analysis from coastal regions of China.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {236}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {116668}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.116668}, pmid = {37459947}, issn = {1096-0953}, abstract = {The mitigation of oceanic pollution is believed to be influenced by the expansion of marine economies and advancements in technology, as per existing research. Nevertheless, the current body of research on this topic is lacking in terms of exploring the potential nonlinearity of the relationship and fully understanding the extent to which the observed effects have been demonstrated. The present study endeavors to bridge the existing research void by investigating the coastal regions of China spanning the time from 2000 to 2020. The present study utilizes a panel threshold model to examine the non-linear effects of marine patents and per capita gross ocean product on marine pollution. The measure of marine pollution is based on the quantity of industrial wastewater that is discharged directly into the ocean. The research findings suggest that there is a notable association between the increase in per capita GOP and the worsening of marine pollution across the three stages of the panel threshold model. The impact of China's environmental issues appears to be decreasing over time, indicating that the country is currently in the early stages of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) before reaching its peak. Based on the analysis of current trends, it is possible to deduce that a potential negative correlation between the GOP and pollution could emerge if these patterns continue. The implication arises that the expansion of the marine economy has the potential to alleviate environmental stressors on the ocean. In the context of marine patents, the research findings did not reveal any significant correlations at the lower and intermediate stages. During the analysis of the high-level phase, it was observed that marine patents exerted a significant impact on pollution, indicating the growing importance of technological advancements in the marine industry for addressing and reducing marine pollution. The process of identifying the number of provinces and municipalities has been completed for all three phases. The development of the marine economy has garnered considerable attention due to its numerous policy implications.}, }
@article {pmid37459291, year = {2023}, author = {Alamos, S and Shih, PM}, title = {How to engineer the unknown: Advancing a quantitative and predictive understanding of plant and soil biology to address climate change.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {21}, number = {7}, pages = {e3002190}, pmid = {37459291}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Soil ; Plants/genetics ; Synthetic Biology ; Photosynthesis/genetics ; }, abstract = {Our basic understanding of carbon cycling in the biosphere remains qualitative and incomplete, precluding our ability to effectively engineer novel solutions to climate change. How can we attempt to engineer the unknown? This challenge has been faced before in plant biology, providing a roadmap to guide future efforts. We use examples from over a century of photosynthesis research to illustrate the key principles that will set future plant engineering on a solid footing, namely, an effort to identify the key control variables, quantify the effects of systematically tuning these variables, and use theory to account for these observations. The main contributions of plant synthetic biology will stem not from delivering desired genotypes but from enabling the kind of predictive understanding necessary to rationally design these genotypes in the first place. Only then will synthetic plant biology be able to live up to its promise.}, }
@article {pmid37455631, year = {2023}, author = {Silenzi, A and Marotta, C and Caredda, E and Sá Machado, R and Severoni, S and Rezza, G}, title = {Climate change, human migration and health nexus: what do we know about public health implications on a global scale?.}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {47}, number = {3}, pages = {39-43}, doi = {10.19191/EP23.3.S1.A559.037}, pmid = {37455631}, issn = {1120-9763}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Italy ; *Communicable Diseases ; Africa South of the Sahara ; *Emigrants and Immigrants ; Europe ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: to address the nexus among climate change, migration, and health at global and Italian levels.<br><br>DESIGN: narrative review.<br><br>SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: comprehensive, critical, and objective analysis of the current knowledge on the topic by searching online databases.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: evidence from the literature examining health issues associated with migration in the context of climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: anthropogenic climate change has recently influenced the scale and patterns of human mobility, not only as a driver of migration, but also by interacting with and amplifying the effects of migration determinants, including health determinants. Despite research focusing on the distinct relationship between climate change and migration, as well as climate change and health, little attention has been paid to the nexus among climate change, migration, and health. Evidence available examining various health issues associated with migration in the context of climate change include changing patterns of infectious diseases and their risks, rising cases of malnutrition, trauma and injuries, changing patterns of noncommunicable diseases, impact on mental health. Inadequacy of access to health services due to the weakening and overstretching health systems also plays an important role. In a country like Italy, even if the immediate threats posed by climate change differ from one area to another, these threats are already exacerbating the country's existing infrastructure deficiencies, industrial pollution, and hydrogeological and seismic vulnerability. In addition, Italy has historically been a destination country of immigrant afflux through different migration routes. It is possible that the consequences of climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa will drive a growing number of people to cross the sea to reach Europe, specifically Italy.&#xa0;Conclusions: climate change, human migration, and health should be considered as an interconnected and complex issue. A shift to climate resilient health systems' is a useful precautionary measure as it aims to strengthen multiple aspects of national and sub-national health systems, regardless of the extent to which climate-related migration might occur.}, }
@article {pmid37455630, year = {2023}, author = {Mangone, L and Sacerdote, C and Laine, J and Masala, G and Bendinelli, B and Panico, S and Chiodini, P and Grioni, S and Tumino, R and Petiti, L and Vineis, P}, title = {Food, Health, and Mitigation of Climate change in Italy.}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {47}, number = {3}, pages = {32-38}, doi = {10.19191/EP23.3.S1.A560.038}, pmid = {37455630}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Humans ; Cohort Studies ; Italy/epidemiology ; Diet ; *Greenhouse Gases ; *Neoplasms/epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: to provide evidence on how diet can influence health, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and land use.<br><br>DESIGN: cohort study.<br><br>SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: data collected in the EPIC Italy cohort (N. 47,749).<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: hazard ratios (HR) for overall mortality and for cancer incidence in association with a sustainable diet (EAT-Lancet).<br><br>RESULTS: sustainable diets are characterized by lower associated GHG emissions and lower land use (LU). Adherence to the guidelines proposed by the EAT-Lancet Commission was considered. This diet was associated with lower HRs for mortality and cancer incidence in EPIC Italy, estimated with Cox models accounting for potential confounders and stratified by sex. The hazard ratios for overall mortality showed a dose-response relationship with quartiles of diets associated with high GHG emissions, land use, and high distance from the EAT-Lancet diet calculated using a novel index, the EAT-Lancet distance index (EatDI). The HR for overall cancer incidence was also higher in the population with non-sustainable diets.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: the association among dietary GHG emissions, LU, and EatDI and overall mortality and overall cancer incidence suggests that promoting diets with low associated environmental impact can be an effective mitigation strategy with important co-benefits.}, }
@article {pmid37455628, year = {2023}, author = {Alfano, R and De' Donato, F and Vineis, P and Romanello, M}, title = {Lancet Countdown indicators for Italy: tracking progress on climate change and health.}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {47}, number = {3}, pages = {6-21}, doi = {10.19191/EP23.3.S1.A606.039}, pmid = {37455628}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Humans ; Italy ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: to provide evidence of the health impacts of climate change in Italy.<br><br>DESIGN: descriptive study.<br><br>SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the indicators published in the 2022 Lancet Countdown report were adapted and refined to provide the most recent data relevant to Italy.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: twelve indicators were measured, organized within five sections mirroring those of the 2022 Lancet Countdown report: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement.<br><br>RESULTS: the overall picture depicted by the analysis of the 12 indicators reveals two key findings. First, climate change is already affecting the health of Italian populations, with effects not being uniform across the Country and with the most vulnerable groups being disproportionately at risk. Second, results showed that Italy's mitigation response has been partial, with major costs to human health. Accelerated climate change mitigation through energy system decarbonisation and shifts to more sustainable modes of transport could offer major benefits to health from cleaner air locally and from more active lifestyles, and to climate change from reduction of global warming. The decarbonisation of agricultural systems would similarly offer health co-benefits to Italian population.&#xa0;Conclusions: through accelerated action on climate change mitigation, Italy has the opportunity of delivering major and immediate health benefits to its population. Developing a key set of local indicators to monitor the impacts of climate change and evaluate response actions, in terms of adaptation and mitigation, can help support and enhance policy and action to fight climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid37455627, year = {2023}, author = {De' Donato, F and Alfano, R and Michelozzi, P and Vineis, P and , }, title = {The importance of public health in defining climate change policies.}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {47}, number = {3}, pages = {3-4}, doi = {10.19191/EP23.3.S1.A647.057}, pmid = {37455627}, issn = {1120-9763}, }
@article {pmid37454384, year = {2023}, author = {Avcı, BC and Kesgin, E and Atam, M and Tan, RI and Abdelkader, M}, title = {Short-term climate change influence on surface water quality impacts from agricultural activities.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {38}, pages = {89581-89596}, pmid = {37454384}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Water Quality ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Agriculture/methods ; Soil ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Rivers ; Nitrogen/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global phenomenon that directly affects agriculture by altering crop yield, nutritional quality, pests, and plant diseases. The North Aegean Basin located in Turkey has considerable agricultural importance due to its fertile soils. Agricultural activities have increased significantly and uncontrollably in the last decade, resulting in dramatic changes in nitrate and phosphorus levels in surface water within the watershed. Changes in climatic conditions have the potential to impact the quantity and quality of water resources. Best management practices (BMPs) are presently utilized as a planning tool to enhance the quality of water resources. To develop policies in this regard, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of BMPs. To this end, this study aims to investigate the potential effect of climate change on the surface water quality of the North Aegean Basin. For the period between 2010 and 2030, global climate data retrieved from Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 and regionally downscaled were used to feed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The various potential BMP scenarios were developed and simulated in the hydrological model by considering the effects of climate change. The RCP4.5 scenario reduced the precipitation by 15.11%, while the RCP8.5 scenario reduced the precipitation by 10.97%. Decreased precipitation also affected the runoff and the nutrient loads and concentrations. As a result of the RCP4.5 simulation, TP and TN concentrations increased by 24.42% and 58.45%, respectively, in the IST_KEN014 station. Improvements were observed in TN and TP concentrations with the effect of applied BMP simulations. Also, the results revealed that the applied BMP scenarios may contribute to considerable reductions in nutrient loads. Considering the RCP4.5 scenario, BMPs reduced TN loads in the basin by 2.42-10.97%, while reducing TP loads by around 3.60-16.81%. Considering the RCP8.5 scenario, the BMPs reduced the TN loads in the basin between 2.21 and 10.04%, while they reduced the TP loads between 3.57 and 16.67%.}, }
@article {pmid37453170, year = {2023}, author = {Fernández-Alías, A and Molinero, JC and Quispe-Becerra, JI and Bonnet, D and Marcos, C and Pérez-Ruzafa, A}, title = {Phenology of scyphozoan jellyfish species in a eutrophication and climate change context.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {194}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {115286}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115286}, pmid = {37453170}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Scyphozoa ; Gelatin ; Eutrophication ; }, abstract = {The uprising interest in gelatinous zooplankton populations must cope with a lack of robust time series of direct abundance observations in most of the ecosystems because of the difficulties in sampling small, fragile organisms, and of the dismissal of jellyfish as a nuisance. Most of the hypotheses about their dynamics are built on a few species and ecosystems and extended to the whole group, but the blooms are registered mainly for the members of the Class Scyphozoa that dwell in temperate, shallow waters. Within the scyphozoans, our knowledge about their phenology relies mainly on laboratory experiences. Here we present a long-term analysis of the phenology and life cycle of three scyphozoan species in an ecosystem affected by eutrophication in a climate change context. We have found that the phenology is directed by temperature, but not modified by different thermal and ecological regimes.}, }
@article {pmid37453168, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, Y and Ma, L and Sui, J and Li, X and Wang, H and Zhang, B}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of echinoderms in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {194}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {115246}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115246}, pmid = {37453168}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Echinodermata ; *Sea Cucumbers ; China ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {To detect potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of common echinoderm species in the Yellow Sea (YS) and East China Sea (ECS), species distribution models (SDMs) were applied. Ensemble SDMs were constructed and were in good model performance for six of the eight selected common echinoderm species. Under future climate scenarios, the brittle stars Ophiopholis mirabilis, Amphioplus depressus and the sea cucumber Protankyra bidentata were projected to expand in the southwestern areas of the YS, the ECS, and the coastal areas of the YS and ECS, respectively; the brittle stars Stegophiura sladeni, Amphiura digitula and Amphiura vadicola will likely contract their ranges in the south distribution areas and expand in the north, showing a northward movement trend. Temperature was the most important environmental variable influencing the distribution of the latter three echinoderms. Our findings will improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on marine species distributions.}, }
@article {pmid37451762, year = {2023}, author = {eBioMedicine, }, title = {Climate change and health: translating the call of the hummingbird.}, journal = {EBioMedicine}, volume = {93}, number = {}, pages = {104718}, doi = {10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104718}, pmid = {37451762}, issn = {2352-3964}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Birds ; }, }
@article {pmid38075529, year = {2022}, author = {Zhao, Q and Yu, P and Mahendran, R and Huang, W and Gao, Y and Yang, Z and Ye, T and Wen, B and Wu, Y and Li, S and Guo, Y}, title = {Global climate change and human health: Pathways and possible solutions.}, journal = {Eco-Environment &amp; Health (Online)}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {53-62}, pmid = {38075529}, issn = {2772-9850}, abstract = {Global warming has been changing the planet's climate pattern, leading to increasing frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events and natural disasters. These climate-changing events affect various health outcomes adversely through complicated pathways. This paper reviews the main signs of climate change so far, e.g., suboptimal ambient temperature, sea-level rise and other conditions, and depicts the interactive pathways between different climate-changing events such as suboptimal temperature, wildfires, and floods with a broad range of health outcomes. Meanwhile, the modifying effect of socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors on the pathways is summarised, such that the youth, elderly, females, poor and those living in coastal regions are particularly susceptible to climate change. Although Earth as a whole is expected to suffer from climate change, this review article discusses some potential benefits for certain regions, e.g., a more liveable environment and sufficient food supply. Finally, we summarise certain mitigation and adaptation strategies against climate change and how these strategies may benefit human health in other ways. This review article provides a comprehensive and concise introduction of the pathways between climate change and human health and possible solutions, which may map directions for future research.}, }
@article {pmid37938692, year = {2022}, author = {Seidel, L and Ketzer, M and Broman, E and Shahabi-Ghahfarokhi, S and Rahmati-Abkenar, M and Turner, S and Ståhle, M and Bergström, K and Manoharan, L and Ali, A and Forsman, A and Hylander, S and Dopson, M}, title = {Weakened resilience of benthic microbial communities in the face of climate change.}, journal = {ISME communications}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {21}, pmid = {37938692}, issn = {2730-6151}, support = {FR-2020/0008//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas (Swedish Research Council Formas)/ ; 20170539//Crafoordska Stiftelsen (Crafoord Foundation)/ ; 2019-03116//Magnus Bergvalls Stiftelse (Magnus Bergvall Foundation)/ ; }, abstract = {Increased ocean temperature associated with climate change is especially intensified in coastal areas and its influence on microbial communities and biogeochemical cycling is poorly understood. In this study, we sampled a Baltic Sea bay that has undergone 50 years of warmer temperatures similar to RCP5-8.5 predictions due to cooling water release from a nuclear power plant. The system demonstrated reduced oxygen concentrations, decreased anaerobic electron acceptors, and higher rates of sulfate reduction. Chemical analyses, 16S rRNA gene amplicons, and RNA transcripts all supported sediment anaerobic reactions occurring closer to the sediment-water interface. This resulted in higher microbial diversities and raised sulfate reduction and methanogenesis transcripts, also supporting increased production of toxic sulfide and the greenhouse gas methane closer to the sediment surface, with possible release to oxygen deficient waters. RNA transcripts supported prolonged periods of cyanobacterial bloom that may result in increased climate change related coastal anoxia. Finally, while metatranscriptomics suggested increased energy production in the heated bay, a large number of stress transcripts indicated the communities had not adapted to the increased temperature and had weakened resilience. The results point to a potential feedback loop, whereby increased temperatures may amplify negative effects at the base of coastal biochemical cycling.}, }
@article {pmid37645347, year = {2022}, author = {Koundouri, P and Pittis, N and Samartzis, P and Englezos, N and Papandreou, A}, title = {Alternative Types of Ambiguity and their Effects on Climate Change Regulation.}, journal = {Open research Europe}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {9}, pmid = {37645347}, issn = {2732-5121}, abstract = {This paper focuses on different types of ambiguity that affect climate change regulation. In particular, we analyze the effects of the interaction among three types of agents, namely, the decision-maker (DM), the climate change experts, and the society, on the probabilistic properties of green-house gas (GHG) emissions and the formation of environmental policy. These effects are analyzed under two types of ambiguity: "deferential ambiguity" and "preferential ambiguity". Deferential ambiguity refers to the uncertainty that the experts face concerning whose forecast (scenario) the DM will defer to. Preferential ambiguity stems from the potential inability of the DM to correctly discern the society's preferences about the desired change of GHG emissions. This paper shows that the existence of deferential and preferential ambiguities have significant effects on GHG emissions regulation.}, }
@article {pmid38013771, year = {2022}, author = {Alavosius, MP and Gelino, BW and Pietras, CJ}, title = {Approaching 1.5 °C of Global Warming: Introduction to the Special Section on Behavior and Cultural Systems Analysis for Climate Change, Part I.}, journal = {Behavior and social issues}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {366-372}, pmid = {38013771}, issn = {2376-6786}, }
@article {pmid38013766, year = {2022}, author = {Meshes, E and Kamau, LZ and Summers, M and Hoppin, KB}, title = {Climate Change and Six Americas: What Can Behavior Analysts Do?.}, journal = {Behavior and social issues}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {497-521}, pmid = {38013766}, issn = {2376-6786}, abstract = {Climate change, directly impacted by human behavior, has been investigated and evaluated across disciplines. The Six Americas was developed as a segmentation tool to communicate effectively with the United States population about climate change (Leiserowitz et al., 2021) across a spectrum from those likely to act in opposition to climate change mitigation strategies to those actively seeking to remediate the climate change effects. Behavior analysts offer unique skills to intervene at the individual level effectively. Behavior analysts will benefit from learning about this conceptual model and its tools, particularly to inform intervention across the spectrum of the Six Americas. This paper will cover a background of the Six Americas and suggestions on how to intervene for these different segments at the individual level, followed by a brief review of the existing effective literature, particularly regarding changing behavior in the food, energy, and transportation sectors. Specifically, behavior analytic interventions will be suggested for a population concerned about climate change who may also be posed for action. Finally, we will provide suggestions to guide behavior analysts to intervene with those disengaged or actively dismissive of the threats posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid38013765, year = {2022}, author = {Pietras, CJ}, title = {Rule-Governed Behavior and Climate Change: Why Climate Warnings Fail to Motivate Sufficient Action.}, journal = {Behavior and social issues}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {373-417}, pmid = {38013765}, issn = {2376-6786}, abstract = {Climate scientists warn of dire consequences for ecological systems and human well-being if significant steps to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken immediately. Despite these warnings, greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, indicating that current responses are inadequate. Climate warnings and reactions to them may be analyzed in terms of rules and rule-governed behavior. The literature on rule-governed behavior in behavior analysis has identified a variety of factors that can reduce rule following, including insufficient rule exposure, insufficient learning history and rule complexity, incomplete rules, instructed behavior not sufficiently learned, rules having weak function-altering effects, conflicting rules, lack of speaker credibility, rule plausibility and inconsistency with prior learning, and insufficient reinforcement for rule following. The present paper aims to analyze how these factors might impact responses to climate change, and possible solutions and strategies are discussed. Much of the theory and research on climate-change communication has come from outside of behavior analysis. Thus, the paper also aims to integrate findings from this literature with a behavior-analytic approach to rule control. Interpreting climate warnings and climate solutions in terms of rule-governed behavior may improve our understanding of why such rules are not more effective, and aid in the development of verbal and nonverbal strategies for changing behavior and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid37645204, year = {2021}, author = {Sanders, F and Sanders, H and Jonkers, K}, title = {Crossover comparison of climate-change adaptation measures taken in the Gdansk (Baltic-sea) and Rotterdam (Nord-sea) deltas.}, journal = {Open research Europe}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {9}, pmid = {37645204}, issn = {2732-5121}, abstract = {Gdansk in Poland and the Netherlands share a long-term relationship that started with the establishment of Dutch Mennonites in the Vistula delta in the 16 [th] Century. Climate-change figures show that both the Polish Gdansk and DutchRotterdam deltas will suffer flooding due to sea level rise, with accumulating severe rainfall accompanied by high river levels; reasons that led to a comparison of the adaptation measures taken. On the basis of the crossover comparison studied, it can be concluded that Poland and the Netherlands have a virtually identical approach when it comes to climate-change impacts on their current situation. With regard to the long-term climate-change trend, the Netherlands in exploring for the future more 'anticipatory' measures with the development of new scenarios for the protection of land and cities. In the Netherlands the use of Hackathon approach is thereby used more often to explore such scenarios. The interaction between the experts and stakeholders of different expertise in this methodology show to lead to creative and new perspectives. This approach may also be recommended for the situation in Gdansk.}, }
@article {pmid37861755, year = {2021}, author = {Licinio, J and Wong, ML}, title = {Climate change and mental health: a commentary.}, journal = {Discover mental health}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, pmid = {37861755}, issn = {2731-4383}, abstract = {Climate change represents a major global challenge. Some hallmarks of climate change that have been connected to human activity include an increase of 0.8-1.2 °C in global temperatures as well as the warming of upper ocean water. Importantly, approximately 500 million people worldwide face the consequences of desertification. Simultaneously, the world population has grown from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 7.7 billion today, greatly exacerbating the human toll of devastating environmental disasters, which result in increasingly larger and more common mass migrations that also fuel human trafficking and modern-day slavery. The mental health outcomes are staggering and include, in the context of chronic stress, addiction, anxiety disorders, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), bipolar disorder, major depression, and suicidality. Mental health practitioners, healthcare systems, and governments across the world need to be prepared to address the mental health sequelae of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37635820, year = {2021}, author = {Duhaime, AC}, title = {Is Climate Change the Surgeon's "Shift"?.}, journal = {Annals of surgery open : perspectives of surgical history, education, and clinical approaches}, volume = {2}, number = {3}, pages = {e093}, pmid = {37635820}, issn = {2691-3593}, }
@article {pmid37519452, year = {2021}, author = {Jiricka-Pürrer, A and Brandenburg, C and Pröbstl-Haider, U}, title = {Reprint of: City tourism pre- and post-covid-19 pandemic - Messages to take home for climate change adaptation and mitigation?.}, journal = {Journal of outdoor recreation and tourism}, volume = {34}, number = {}, pages = {100435}, pmid = {37519452}, issn = {2213-0799}, abstract = {The paper presents the status quo on climate change impacts on city tourism in Austria describing the impacts by air travel and a short stay on the greenhouse gas emissions and the changing conditions in the city. For Austrian cities, depending on location and topography, heavy rainfall events, storms and heat waves in particular could become increasingly relevant in the tourism context. For medium-sized and large cities, heat is the most frequently discussed topic in connection with possible adaptation potentials. The analysis of challenges shows a strong overlap of adaptation targets in city tourism with adaptation challenges for city planning including connection to the sub-urban surrounding areas to confront climate change impacts. Covid-19 pandemic, additionally, offered the opportunity to discuss a new re-start of the city-tourism against the experience during the shutdown period in spring 2020. The paper argues that we can learn from the current health crisis for coping with climate change related extreme events and to increase achievements in climate change mitigation. Firstly, the pandemic provides a strong ability to discuss the impact of city tourism due to short-term air travel and options to enhance more climate-friendly options on the other hand. Secondly, Covid-19 emphasized the need to reconsider the role of free spaces in metropolitan areas as well as their accessibility. Herewith synergies with climate change adaptation are likely when questioning the availability and accessibility of green and blue infrastructure as well as their capacities. Challenges including crowding and impacts by over tourism on public free spaces will require joint strategies involving all public and private institutions (including local communities and businesses) responsible for the maintenance of green and blue free spaces. Thirdly, the strong interactions between urban and suburban areas became evident once more, which will also be very relevant for city tourism in the future (e.g. in times of heat waves). Reflection on the transferability of coping with such crowding effects, related to the adaptive behaviour of residents and tourists in times of severe heat waves, might be relevant for both city tourism and summer tourism destinations near metropolitan areas. Finally, the Covid-19 crisis encourages discussions on over-tourism in metropolitan destinations in favour of a more balanced approach, in particular in inner city areas and around major sightseeing attractions.}, }
@article {pmid37588361, year = {2020}, author = {Sánchez Goñi, MF}, title = {Regional impacts of climate change and its relevance to human evolution.}, journal = {Evolutionary human sciences}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {e55}, pmid = {37588361}, issn = {2513-843X}, abstract = {The traditional concept of long and gradual, glacial-interglacial climate changes during the Quaternary has been challenged since the 1980s. High temporal resolution analysis of marine, terrestrial and ice geological archives has identified rapid, millennial- to centennial-scale, and large-amplitude climatic cycles throughout the last few million years. These changes were global but have had contrasting regional impacts on the terrestrial and marine ecosystems, with in some cases strong changes in the high latitudes of both hemispheres but muted changes elsewhere. Such a regionalization has produced environmental barriers and corridors that have probably triggered niche contractions/expansions of hominin populations living in Eurasia and Africa. This article reviews the long- and short-timescale ecosystem changes that have punctuated the last few million years, paying particular attention to the environments of the last 650,000 years, which have witnessed key events in the evolution of our lineage in Africa and Eurasia. This review highlights, for the first time, a contemporaneity between the split between Denisovan and Neanderthals, at ~650-400 ka, and the strong Eurasian ice-sheet expansion down to the Black Sea. This ice expansion could form an ice barrier between Europe and Asia that may have triggered the genetic drift between these two populations.}, }
@article {pmid37451446, year = {2023}, author = {Zhan, P and Zhu, W and Zhang, T and Li, N}, title = {Regional inequalities of future climate change impact on rice (Oryza sativa L.) yield in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {898}, number = {}, pages = {165495}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165495}, pmid = {37451446}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Oryza ; Climate Change ; China ; Forecasting ; Climate Models ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The implications of climate change for rice yield have significant repercussions for food security, particularly in China, where rice cultivation is diverse, involving various cropping intensities, management practices, and climate conditions across numerous regions. The regional discrepancies in the impact of climate change on rice yield in China, however, are yet to be fully understood. Using the ORYZA(v3) model and future climate data from 2025 to 2084, gathered from ten climate models and three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), we conducted an investigation into these regional discrepancies. Our findings suggest a projected average decline in rice yield ranging from 3.7 % to 16.4 % under both rainfed and fully irrigated conditions across different scenarios. Central, eastern, and northwestern China could face the most significant climate change impacts on both rainfed and irrigated rice, with yield reductions reaching 41.5 %. In contrast, low levels of climate change under the RCP2.6 scenario may benefit northeastern (2.4 %) and southern (1.0 %) regions for rainfed and irrigated rice, respectively. Fertilization effects from elevated CO2 could counterbalance climate change's negative impact, resulting in yield increases in all Chinese rice-growing regions, excluding the northwest. The primary factor influencing rice yield changes in all regions under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios was temperature. However, precipitation, solar radiation, and relative humidity had notable and sometimes dominant effects, especially under the RCP2.6 scenario. These results highlight the divergent, even contradictory, rice yield responses to climate change across China, underlining the need to account for regional differences in large-scale impact studies. The study's findings can inform future policy decisions regarding ensuring regional and national food security in China.}, }
@article {pmid37450186, year = {2023}, author = {Jia, S and Liu, Y and Jin, J}, title = {Can climate change attention predict energy stock returns?.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {38}, pages = {89253-89269}, pmid = {37450186}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2022M723691//the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Investments ; Principal Component Analysis ; }, abstract = {We propose a climate change attention (CCA) index based on Google search volume index (GSVI) from 2004 to 2021 and show that it is an economically and statistically significant negative predictor for next month's energy stock returns. The index is extracted using principal component analysis (PCA), but the results are similar by using the equal-weighted average method. Compared with 14 traditional macroeconomic predictors, CCA performs the best and provides complementary information when added into bivariate and multivariate macro predictive models. When further considering the effect of CCA's forecasting power over different periods, strong evidence is shown that this outperformance is especially prominent in economic depressions and down market conditions. From the asset allocation perspective, CCA can provide a mean-variance investor with significant economic gains under alternative risk aversions. Our empirical results prove that investors' attention to climate change contains predictive information for excess returns of global traditional energy stock index.}, }
@article {pmid37450075, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, W and Liu, S and Zhao, S and Zhu, Y and Feng, S and Wang, Z and Wu, Y and Xiao, J and Yuan, W and Yan, W and Ju, H and Wang, Q}, title = {Temporal dynamics of ecosystem, inherent, and underlying water use efficiencies of forests, grasslands, and croplands and their responses to climate change.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {13}, pmid = {37450075}, issn = {1750-0680}, support = {U20A2089//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41971152//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Understanding temporal trends and varying responses of water use efficiency (WUE) to environmental changes of diverse ecosystems is key to predicting vegetation growth. WUE dynamics of major ecosystem types (e.g., forest, grassland and cropland) have been studied using various WUE definitions/metrics, but a comparative study on WUE dynamics and their driving forces among different ecosystem types using multiple WUE metrics is lacking. We used eddy covariance measurements for 42 FLUXNET2015 sites (396 site years) from 1997 to 2014, as well as three commonly used WUE metrics (i.e., ecosystem, inherent, and underlying WUE) to investigate the commonalities and differences in WUE trends and driving factors among deciduous broadleaf forests (DBFs), evergreen needleleaf forests (ENFs), grasslands, and croplands.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results showed that the temporal trends of WUE were not statistically significant at 73.8% of the forest, grassland and cropland sites, and none of the three WUE metrics exhibited better performance than the others in quantifying WUE. Meanwhile, the trends observed for the three WUE metrics were not significantly different among forest, grassland and cropland ecosystems. In addition, WUE was mainly driven by atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at sites with significant WUE trends, and by vapor pressure deficit (VPD) at sites without significant trends (except cropland).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings revealed the commonalities and differences in the application of three WUE metrics in disparate ecosystems, and further highlighted the important effect of VPD on WUE change.}, }
@article {pmid37449191, year = {2023}, author = {Gufi, Y and Manaye, A and Tesfamariam, B and Abrha, H and Tesfaye, M and Hintsa, S}, title = {Modeling impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution and abundances of Tamarindus indica in Tigray region, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {e17471}, pmid = {37449191}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Tamarindus indica is a multipurpose dry land species in sub-Saharan that is traditionally used to build resilience into the farming system. The species is highly threatened and listed on the IUCN Red List. However, information on how climatic condition locally influences its ecological distribution is limited. This study investigates the current and future suitable habitat for the species in the Tigray region, in northern Ethiopia. A total of 220 species presence points and the number of T. indica within a 50 m × 50 m plot were collected. In addition, 19 bioclimatic variables, 3 topographic variables and soil data were used to model the impact of future climate conditions under two Representative Concentration Path Ways (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5). MaxEnt-v-3.3.3 k, Diva-GIS-7.5, and GIS10.6 were used to model the current and future distribution. SPSSv-26 was also utilized to analyze the relationship between the species' abundance and environmental variables. Results showed that the environmental variables determining most for the distribution of T. indica were mean diurnal range (Bio2 (56.9%)); temperature seasonality (Bio4 (10.3%)) and temperature annual range (Bio7 (9.2%)). The model suggested that the current distribution of T. indica covers an area of 9209 km[2] (14.04%). This would have increased to 29,363 km[2] (44.78%) and 11,046 km[2] (16.85%) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Compared to the high-impact areas, new gains of suitable areas (net 25,081 km[2]) for the future distribution of the species were predicted in 2070-RCP4.5. Altitude, rainfall, temperature, silt contents of soils and soil pH have significant contributions (P-value<0.05) to the abundance of T. indica. However, altitude has a negative relationship with the abundance of T. indica. Additional studies to understand population trends and other threats are recommended.}, }
@article {pmid37449154, year = {2023}, author = {Cuerdo-Mir, M and Ibar-Alonso, R}, title = {New paradigm in the economic literature on global warming.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {e17715}, pmid = {37449154}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study examines how international agreements (especially the 1992 Rio Summit, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, and the 2015 Paris Agreement) on climate change have fueled rampant economic literature worldwide. However, it has not been systematically classified or distinguished from the more traditional studies in this field. Hence, we use a scientometric analysis using four different approaches: natural language processing (NLP), citation analysis, co-citation network analysis, and content analysis. We conduct an ambitious Boolean search of 30 terms in Scopus and use NLP, along with unsupervised statistical learning techniques and content analysis to classify and analyze 2400 of the most relevant studies in this field. As such, independent results are complementary. We provide novel literature by mapping four major clusters: climate change corporate, climate finance, climate capitalism, and climate gateway belief.}, }
@article {pmid37447130, year = {2023}, author = {Luiz Piati, G and Ferreira de Lima, S and Lustosa Sobrinho, R and Dos Santos, OF and Vendruscolo, EP and Jacinto de Oliveira, J and do Nascimento de Araújo, TA and Mubarak Alwutayd, K and Finatto, T and AbdElgawad, H}, title = {Biostimulants in Corn Cultivation as a Means to Alleviate the Impacts of Irregular Water Regimes Induced by Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {37447130}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Climate change alters regular weather seasonality. Corn is one of the main crops affected by irregular water regimes. Due to complications in decision-making processes related to climate change, it is estimated that planting corn outside the optimal window results in around USD 340 million in losses per year in the United States' Corn Belt. In turn, exogenous plant growth regulators have been gaining prominence due to their potential to positively influence the morphology and physiology of plants under stress. This study was based on the hypothesis that the use of plant growth regulators can assist in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on corn plants sown both inside and outside the recommended planting period. In this context, the effects of biostimulant application on gas exchange in corn plants sown within and outside the recommended period were evaluated. The experiment was carried out in randomized blocks in a 4 × 5 × 2 factorial scheme with four repetitions. These were four sowing times, the application of the biostimulants via seeds in five doses, and foliar applications (presence and absence). The biostimulant doses were 0.00, 6.25, 12.50, 18.75, and 25 mL kg[-1]. The foliar application used a dose of 500 mL ha[-1]. Only in the period (2017/2) higher doses of biostimulants indicated a decrease in the water use efficiency of plants, suggesting the need to evaluate this variable carefully. In this regard, future studies may investigate the ideal doses and application timings of biostimulants for different edaphoclimatic conditions. In general, the combined use of biostimulants on seeds and as a foliar treatment boosted physiological activity and stimulated photosynthetic processes in corn plants. Based on these data, plant regulators can be a useful tool to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on corn plants sown inside and outside the planting period.}, }
@article {pmid37447093, year = {2023}, author = {Redondo-Gómez, S and Mesa-Marín, J and Pérez-Romero, JA and Mariscal, V and Molina-Heredia, FP and Álvarez, C and Pajuelo, E and Rodríguez-Llorente, ID and Mateos-Naranjo, E}, title = {Plant Growth-Promoting Rhizobacteria Improve Rice Response to Climate Change Conditions.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {37447093}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {CGL2016-75550-R, AEI/FEDER, UE//MINECO/ ; }, abstract = {Rice is one of the most important crops in the world and is considered a strategic crop for food security. Furthermore, the excessive use of chemical fertilizers to obtain high yields causes environmental problems. A sustainable alternative includes taking advantage of beneficial bacteria that promote plant growth. Here, we investigate the effect of five bacterial biofertilizers from halophytes on growth, and we investigate photosynthetic efficiency in rice plants grown under saline conditions (0 and 85 mmol L[-1] NaCl) and future climate change scenarios, including increased CO2 concentrations and temperature (400/700 ppm and 25/+4 °C, respectively). Biofertilizers 1-4 increased growth by 9-64% in plants grown with and without salt in both CO2- temperature combinations, although there was no significant positive effect on the net photosynthetic rate of rice plants. In general, biofertilizer 1 was the most effective at 400 ppm CO2 and at 700 ppm CO2 +4 °C in the absence of salt. Inocula 1-5 also stimulated plant length at high CO2 levels without salt. Finally, the positive effect of biofertilization was attenuated in the plants grown under the interaction between salt and high CO2. This highlights the significance of studying biofertilization under stress interaction to establish the real potential of biofertilizers in the context of climate change conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37447081, year = {2023}, author = {Sapakhova, Z and Raissova, N and Daurov, D and Zhapar, K and Daurova, A and Zhigailov, A and Zhambakin, K and Shamekova, M}, title = {Sweet Potato as a Key Crop for Food Security under the Conditions of Global Climate Change: A Review.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {37447081}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {AP09260382//Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan/ ; }, abstract = {Sweet potato is one of the most economically important crops for addressing global food security and climate change issues, especially under conditions of extensive agriculture, such as those found in developing countries. However, osmotic stress negatively impacts the agronomic and economic productivity of sweet potato cultivation by inducing several morphological, physiological, and biochemical changes. Plants employ many signaling pathways to respond to water stress by modifying their growth patterns, activating antioxidants, accumulating suitable solutes and chaperones, and making stress proteins. These physiological, metabolic, and genetic modifications can be employed as the best indicators for choosing drought-tolerant genotypes. The main objective of sweet potato breeding in many regions of the world, especially those affected by drought, is to obtain varieties that combine drought tolerance with high yields. In this regard, the study of the physiological and biochemical features of certain varieties is important for the implementation of drought resistance measures. Adapted genotypes can be selected and improved for particular growing conditions by using suitable tools and drought tolerance-related selection criteria. By regulating genetics in this way, the creation of drought-resistant varieties may become cost-effective for smallholder farmers. This review focuses on the drought tolerance mechanisms of sweet potato, the effects of drought stress on its productivity, its crop management strategies for drought mitigation, traditional and molecular sweet potato breeding methods for drought tolerance, and the use of biotechnological methods to increase the tolerance of sweet potato to drought.}, }
@article {pmid37444133, year = {2023}, author = {Lee, GW and Vine, K and Atkinson, AR and Tong, M and Longman, J and Barratt, A and Bailie, R and Vardoulakis, S and Matthews, V and Rahman, KM}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Health Services in Northern New South Wales, Australia: A Rapid Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {37444133}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {New South Wales ; *Climate Change ; Australia ; *Disasters ; Health Services ; }, abstract = {Climate change is exposing populations to increasing temperatures and extreme weather events in many parts of Australia. To prepare for climate challenges, there is a growing need for Local Health Districts (LHDs) to identify potential health impacts in their region and strengthen the capacity of the health system to respond accordingly. This rapid review summarised existing evidence and research gaps on the impact of climate change on health and health services in Northern New South Wales (NSW)-a 'hotspot' for climate disaster declarations. We systematically searched online databases and selected 11 peer-reviewed studies published between 2012-2022 for the Northern NSW region. The most explored health outcome was mental health in the aftermath of floods and droughts, followed by increased healthcare utilisation due to respiratory, cardiovascular and mortality outcomes associated with bushfire smoke or heat waves. Future research directions were recommended to understand: the compounding impacts of extreme events on health and the health system, local data needs that can better inform models that predict future health risks and healthcare utilisation for the region, and the needs of vulnerable populations that require a whole-of-system response during the different phases of disasters. In conclusion, the review provided climate change and health research directions the LHD may undertake to inform future adaptation and mitigation policies and strategies relevant to their region.}, }
@article {pmid37444106, year = {2023}, author = {Mullins-Jaime, C}, title = {Trending Occupational Fatalities and Injuries: An Assessment of Projected Climate Change Related Impacts in the United States since 1992.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {37444106}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; United States/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Insecticides ; *Occupational Injuries/epidemiology ; Temperature ; Hot Temperature ; Accidents, Occupational ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Some impacts of climate change that are expected to affect the American workforce are rising temperatures, greater prevalence of wildland fires, increase in Lyme disease, and exposure to insecticides. The purpose of this study was to assess how fatal and non-fatal occupational injuries due to environmental heat, forest/brush fires, Lyme disease, and exposure to insecticides have changed over time in the United States and if there were any significant relationships between national occupational injury/illness data and national temperature trends.<br><br>METHODS: Linear regression models assessed fatal and non-fatal injuries/illnesses since 1992 by both the frequency of incidents and the proportion of total incidents and the effects of national average temperatures.<br><br>RESULTS: There were significant increases in occupational fatalities and illnesses due to exposure to environmental heat and national average annual temperatures were predictive of heat exposure fatalities and illnesses.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Heat exposure is an occupational hazard that must be managed carefully in the coming years. Organizations will need to take more aggressive heat exposure control measures as temperatures continue to rise and remain hotter for longer periods during the year. While not currently showing increasing trends on a national scale, the prevalence of occupational incidents due to forest/brush fires, Lyme disease, and insecticides should be monitored as the United States experiences more of the projected impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37441408, year = {2023}, author = {Filipiak, M and Gabriel, D and Kuka, K}, title = {Simulation-based assessment of the soil organic carbon sequestration in grasslands in relation to management and climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e17287}, pmid = {37441408}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Soil organic carbon (SOC) is crucial for the quality and productivity of terrestrial ecosystems and its sequestration plays an important role in mitigating climate change. Understanding the effects of agricultural management under future climate on the SOC balance helps decision making in environmental policies. Thereby, grasslands will play a key role, since future climate change may prolong the vegetation period. We used 24 representative grassland sites in Germany to assess the SOC balance obtained from the CANDY model in relation to ten management regimes, 18 future climate change scenarios and different soil types. Simulations were conducted over a period of 110 years. For most of the selected grassland sites an increase in both air temperature and precipitation was observed in the future climate. The effect of management on the SOC balance largely exceeded the effect of soil type and climate. An increasing management intensity (i.e. three to five cuts) generally increased the SOC balance, while extensive management (i.e. two or fewer cuts) lead to SOC losses. The seasonal variation of precipitation was the most important climate metric, with increased SOC sequestration rates being observed with increasing growing season precipitation. Clay soils had the potential for both highest gains and highest losses depending on management and precipitation. Given an overall lower SOC storage potential in sands and loams, the SOC balance in those soil types varied the least in response to climate change. We conclude that fostering SOC sequestration is possible in grassland soils by increasing management intensity, which involves increased fertilizer input and field traffic. This however may stand in conflict with other policy aims, such as preserving biodiversity. Multicriterial assessments are required to estimate the nett greenhouse gas balance and other aspects associated with these management practices at a farm scale.}, }
@article {pmid37441158, year = {2022}, author = {Belesova, K and Green, R and Clercq-Roques, R and Falconer, J and Waddington, HS and Whitmee, S and Reynolds, T and Hassan, S and Haines, A}, title = {Quantifying the effectiveness and health co-benefits of climate change mitigation actions across sectors: a protocol for an umbrella review.}, journal = {Wellcome open research}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {98}, pmid = {37441158}, issn = {2398-502X}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Effective and rapid actions are required to achieve global goals for climate change mitigation, and there is an opportunity to ensure that the actions taken are also positive for human health. However, little is known about the relative magnitude of the health co-benefits that can be achieved from mitigation actions, so robust and comprehensive syntheses of the evidence on the nature and effects of relevant actions are required. This paper presents a protocol for an interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral umbrella review of systematic reviews, synthesising modelled and empirical evidence on such actions.<br><br>METHODS: Nine bibliographic databases will be searched, capturing literature across a wide range of disciplines and sectors. Unique records retrieved by the searches will be screened by two independent reviewers. The quality of all the included systematic reviews will be assessed using A MeaSurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) 2 critical appraisal tool. Data will be extracted on methodological and thematic characteristics of the reviews, nature of the actions, and their effects on greenhouse gas emission reduction, health, and its determinants, as well as any other reported effects and interactions across different actions.<br><br>RESULTS: Narrative and quantitative synthesis methods will be used to create a typology of relevant actions, map pathways to their impacts on health, compare the magnitude of health and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction impacts by selected characteristics of the actions and the nature of the evidence, as well as to identify gaps in evidence syntheses.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This review will identify the most effective actions for global climate change mitigation and health based on the best available scientific evidence. &#xa0; This protocol has been registered in PROSPERO, Reg No.: CRD42021239292.}, }
@article {pmid37440763, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, Y and Zhao, S and Wei, Y and Li, K and Jiang, X and Li, C and Ren, C and Yin, S and Ho, J and Ran, J and Han, L and Zee, BC and Chong, KC}, title = {Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study.}, journal = {Infectious Disease Modelling}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {645-655}, pmid = {37440763}, issn = {2468-0427}, abstract = {The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and Southeast Asian settings. We collected weekly data of dengue fever incidence, daily mean temperature and rainfall from 2012 to 2020 in Singapore, Colombo, Selangor, and Chiang Mai. Projections for temperature and rainfall were drawn for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) scenarios. Using a disease transmission model, we projected the dengue fever epidemics until 2090s and determined the changes in annual peak incidence, peak time, epidemic size, and outbreak duration. A total of 684,639 dengue fever cases were reported in the four locations between 2012 and 2020. The projected change in dengue fever transmission would be most significant under the SSP585 scenario. In comparison to the 2030s, the peak incidence would rise by 1.29 times in Singapore, 2.25 times in Colombo, 1.36 times in Selangor, and >10 times in Chiang Mai in the 2090s under SSP585. Additionally, the peak time was projected to be earlier in Singapore, Colombo, and Selangor, but be later in Chiang Mai under the SSP585 scenario. Even in a milder emission scenario of SSP126, the epidemic size was projected to increase by 5.94%, 10.81%, 12.95%, and 69.60% from the 2030s-2090s in Singapore, Colombo, Selangor, and Chiang Mai, respectively. The outbreak durations in the four settings were projected to be prolonged over this century under SSP126 and SSP245, while a slight decrease is expected in 2090s under SSP585. The results indicate that climate change is expected to increase the risk of dengue fever transmission in tropical areas of South and Southeast Asia. Limiting greenhouse gas emissions could be crucial in reducing the transmission of dengue fever in the future.}, }
@article {pmid37438629, year = {2023}, author = {Witze, A}, title = {Oceans are turning greener due to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37438629}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37438519, year = {2023}, author = {Cael, BB and Bisson, K and Boss, E and Dutkiewicz, S and Henson, S}, title = {Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {619}, number = {7970}, pages = {551-554}, pmid = {37438519}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; *Oceans and Seas ; *Phytoplankton/isolation &amp; purification/physiology ; *Satellite Imagery ; *Color ; Climate Models ; Time Factors ; *Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {Strong natural variability has been thought to mask possible climate-change-driven trends in phytoplankton populations from Earth-observing satellites. More than 30 years of continuous data were thought to be needed to detect a trend driven by climate change[1]. Here we show that climate-change trends emerge more rapidly in ocean colour (remote-sensing reflectance, Rrs), because Rrs is multivariate and some wavebands have low interannual variability. We analyse a 20-year Rrs time series from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite, and find significant trends in Rrs for 56% of the global surface ocean, mainly equatorward of 40°. The climate-change signal in Rrs emerges after 20 years in similar regions covering a similar fraction of the ocean in a state-of-the-art ecosystem model[2], which suggests that our observed trends indicate shifts in ocean colour-and, by extension, in surface-ocean ecosystems-that are driven by climate change. On the whole, low-latitude oceans have become greener in the past 20 years.}, }
@article {pmid37438436, year = {2023}, author = {Hepp, J and Klein, SA and Horsten, LK and Urbild, J and Lane, SP}, title = {Introduction and behavioral validation of the climate change distress and impairment scale.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {11272}, pmid = {37438436}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; *Climate Change ; *Problem Behavior ; Anxiety/diagnosis ; Anxiety Disorders ; Anger ; }, abstract = {Governmental agencies and the medical and psychological professions are calling for a greater focus on the negative mental health effects of climate change (CC). As a first step, the field needs measures to distinguish affective/emotional distress due to CC from impairment that requires further scientific and diagnostic attention and that may require treatment in the future. To this end, we constructed the climate change distress and impairment scale, which distinguishes CC distress (spanning anger, anxiety, and sadness) from impairment. In four studies (N = 1699), we developed and validated English and German versions of the scale. Across samples, spanning 2021-2022, CC distress was at least moderate, while we observed general moderate to high levels of distress and low to moderate levels of impairment. In three English-speaking samples, younger individuals and women were most affected by CC distress, whereas this was not the case in a German-speaking sample, suggesting sociopolitical influencing factors. We demonstrate convergent validity with previous measures and discriminant validity for general negative affectivity and depressive and generalized anxiety disorder symptoms, which underlines that CC distress is not in itself pathological. Employing a fully incentivized social dilemma paradigm, we demonstrate that CC distress and (to a lesser degree) CC impairment predict pro-environmental behavior, underscoring them as possible drivers, and targets, of climate-change mitigation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid37438160, year = {2023}, author = {Zigmund, B and Hijaz, T and Northrup, BE and Schoen, JH and Hanneman, K and Brown, M and Dave, P and Gross, JS and Henry, CE and Leschied, JR and Maturen, KE and Quirk, CR and Woolen, SA and Zalis, ME and Scheel, JR}, title = {Public Health Statement of the Association of University Radiologists Committee on Climate Change and Sustainability.}, journal = {Academic radiology}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {2358-2361}, doi = {10.1016/j.acra.2023.06.012}, pmid = {37438160}, issn = {1878-4046}, mesh = {Humans ; *Public Health ; *Climate Change ; Universities ; Radiologists ; }, }
@article {pmid37437634, year = {2023}, author = {van der Laan, E and Nunes, JP and Dias, LF and Carvalho, S and Mendonça Dos Santos, F}, title = {Assessing the climate change adaptability of sustainable land management practices regarding water availability and quality: A case study in the Sorraia catchment, Portugal.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {897}, number = {}, pages = {165438}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165438}, pmid = {37437634}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In Mediterranean catchments, such as the Sorraia catchment in Portugal, it is expected that climate change will increase drought stress and the deterioration of water quality in reservoirs. Sustainable land management (SLM) practices are seen as an adaption measure for those problems, but the effectiveness on improving climate change impacted water availability and quality on catchment scale is still poorly understood. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of SLM practices in adapting the impacts of climate change on water availability and quality of the Montargil and Maranhão reservoirs in the Sorraia catchment. A well-calibrated Soil Water Assessment Tool model is used to simulate four scenarios (2041-2071 and 2071-2100; representative climate pathways 4.5 and 8.5), to investigate the effects of climate change on total phosphorus load (TP) in streams, reservoir volume, irrigation use and water exploitation index (WEI). Results showed that WEI will not exceed any water stress level while reservoir water quality will worsen. In particular since the TP load in streams flowing into the reservoirs increases and the volume decreases, it is likely that the existing P limitation for eutrophication will be counteracted. Nevertheless, tested SLM practices were able to decrease the TP load in those streams and increase the reservoir volume under future climates. Overall, this study shows that the SLM practices are effective in adapting to the climate change effects regarding reservoir water quality, without worsening the water availability; thus, it is a promising tool that should be investigated further for application by e.g. local land-users and decision makers.}, }
@article {pmid37437379, year = {2023}, author = {Pessarrodona, A and Franco-Santos, RM and Wright, LS and Vanderklift, MA and Howard, J and Pidgeon, E and Wernberg, T and Filbee-Dexter, K}, title = {Carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation using macroalgae: a state of knowledge review.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {98}, number = {6}, pages = {1945-1971}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12990}, pmid = {37437379}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change ; *Seaweed/metabolism ; Forests ; Carbon/metabolism ; }, abstract = {The conservation, restoration, and improved management of terrestrial forests significantly contributes to mitigate climate change and its impacts, as well as providing numerous co-benefits. The pressing need to reduce emissions and increase carbon removal from the atmosphere is now also leading to the development of natural climate solutions in the ocean. Interest in the carbon sequestration potential of underwater macroalgal forests is growing rapidly among policy, conservation, and corporate sectors. Yet, our understanding of whether carbon sequestration from macroalgal forests can lead to tangible climate change mitigation remains severely limited, hampering their inclusion in international policy or carbon finance frameworks. Here, we examine the results of over 180 publications to synthesise evidence regarding macroalgal forest carbon sequestration potential. We show that research efforts on macroalgae carbon sequestration are heavily skewed towards particulate organic carbon (POC) pathways (77% of data publications), and that carbon fixation is the most studied flux (55%). Fluxes leading directly to carbon sequestration (e.g. carbon export or burial in marine sediments) remain poorly resolved, likely hindering regional or country-level assessments of carbon sequestration potential, which are only available from 17 of the 150 countries where macroalgal forests occur. To solve this issue, we present a framework to categorize coastlines according to their carbon sequestration potential. Finally, we review the multiple avenues through which this sequestration can translate into climate change mitigation capacity, which largely depends on whether management interventions can increase carbon removal above a natural baseline or avoid further carbon emissions. We find that conservation, restoration and afforestation interventions on macroalgal forests can potentially lead to carbon removal in the order of 10's of Tg C globally. Although this is lower than current estimates of natural sequestration value of all macroalgal habitats (61-268 Tg C year[-1]), it suggests that macroalgal forests could add to the total mitigation potential of coastal blue carbon ecosystems, and offer valuable mitigation opportunities in polar and temperate areas where blue carbon mitigation is currently low. Operationalizing that potential will necessitate the development of models that reliably estimate the proportion of production sequestered, improvements in macroalgae carbon fingerprinting techniques, and a rethinking of carbon accounting methodologies. The ocean provides major opportunities to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and the largest coastal vegetated habitat on Earth should not be ignored simply because it does not fit into existing frameworks.}, }
@article {pmid37436630, year = {2023}, author = {Usman, M and Ali, A and Bashir, MK and Mushtaq, K and Ghafoor, A and Amjad, F and Hashim, M and Baig, SA}, title = {Pathway analysis of food security by employing climate change, water, and agriculture nexus in Pakistan: partial least square structural equation modeling.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {38}, pages = {88577-88597}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-023-28547-0}, pmid = {37436630}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Animals ; *Water ; Climate Change ; Pakistan ; Latent Class Analysis ; Least-Squares Analysis ; Agriculture ; Crops, Agricultural ; Triticum ; Livestock ; *Oryza ; Food Security ; }, abstract = {Increasing population and augmented demand for food have put burden on water resources, crops, and livestock for future sustainability. Pakistan is facing difficulties of water shortage, low crops and livestock productivity, meagre livelihood, and intensive food insecurity. Hence, this study was conducted in Pakistan to explore the nexus of climate change, irrigation water, agriculture, rural livelihoods, and food security. The study is based on primary data of 1080 farmers gathered from 12 districts of the rice-wheat and cotton-wheat cropping systems. A partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to compute the nexus. Findings of path analysis indicated that climate change had a significant negative impact on irrigation water, crops, livestock, rural livelihood, and food security in both cropping systems. There was positive relationship between surface water and crops. In addition, groundwater and crops were also positively and significantly correlated. The impact of crop was positive and significant on rural livelihood and food security. Furthermore, rural livelihood and food security were positively and significantly influenced by livestock. Moreover, there was positive relationship between rural livelihood and food security. The cotton-wheat cropping system was more affected by climatic and natural hazards than rice-wheat cropping system. Interconnectivity among nexus components and their contribution to rural livelihood and food security indicate that government, policymakers, and other concerned stakeholders should effectively improve food security policies under climatic and natural hazards. Moreover, it helps in examining adverse impacts of hazards induced by climate change on nexus components, leading to the designing and adoption of sustainable climate change policies. The study's originality lies in its ability to provide a inclusive and integrated pathway of the interconnections and interdependencies among these variables, identifying key drivers of food insecurity in Pakistan. Moreover, outcome of the study has policy implications for developing sustainable policies and strategies to improve sustainable food security in the country.}, }
@article {pmid37435435, year = {2023}, author = {Seyisi, E and Mantlana, B and Ndhleve, S}, title = {Indicators for monitoring and evaluating climate change adaptation efforts in South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {1426}, pmid = {37435435}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Tracking and reporting on whether countries are implementing climate change adaptation initiatives are increasingly becoming more important, and indicators and metrics for monitoring climate change adaptation have equally become crucial. This study employed systematic literature coupled with expert consultation to identify climate adaptation metrics and indicators using South Africa as a case study. Specifically, this study identifies climate change adaptation indicators and selects indicators suitable for use in South Africa. Thirty-seven indicators of climate change adaptation covering different sectors were identified. Nine were identified as input indicators, eight as process indicators, 12 as output indicators and eight as outcome indicators. Application of the specific measurable achievable realistic and timely (SMART) criterion to the 37 indicators resulted in 18 indicators of climate change adaptation. Following stakeholder consultations, eight indicators were chosen as appropriate for tracking the country's progress towards climate change adaptation. The indicators developed in this study could contribute to climate adaptation tracking, while offering initial steps towards a set of indicators and their improvement thereof.<br><br>CONTRIBUTION: Insights from this article can provide actionable information for decision-making in climate change adaptation. This is one of the few studies that seek to narrow down relevant and applicable indicators and metrics used by South Africa when reporting climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid37435119, year = {2023}, author = {Yilmaz, F and Osborn, D and Tsamados, M}, title = {The influence of the Covid-19 pandemic and climate change on water use and supply: experience of Istanbul, Türkiye.}, journal = {UCL open. Environment}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {e061}, pmid = {37435119}, issn = {2632-0886}, abstract = {The coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has affected not only populations around the world but also the environment and natural resources. Lockdowns and restricted lifestyles have had wide-ranging impacts on the environment (e.g., air quality in cities). Although hygiene and disinfection procedures and precautions are effective ways to protect people from Covid-19, they have significant consequences for water usage and resources especially given the increasing impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns, water use and resources. Climate change and public health issues may compound one another, and so we used a drivers, pressures, state, impact, response framework (not previously used to examine the actual and potential impacts of Covid-19 and climate change on water consumption and resources) to scope the main factors that may interact to affect water use and resources (in the form of reservoirs) using evidence from Istanbul, Türkiye, with some discussion of the comparative situation elsewhere. We modified initial views on the framework to account for the regional, city and community level experiences. We note that water consumption in Istanbul has been increasing over the last two decades (except in times of very low rainfall/drought); that there were increases in water consumption in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic; and, despite some increase in rainfall, water levels in reservoirs appeared to decrease during lockdowns (for a range of reasons). Through a new simple way of visualising the data, we also noted that a low resource capacity might be recurring every 6 or 7 years in Istanbul (a similar finding to Thames Reservoir in London). We made no attempt in this paper to quantify the relative contribution that climate change, population growth, etc., are making to water consumption and reservoir levels as we focused on looking at those social, environmental and economic factors that appear to play a role in potential water stress and on developing a drivers, pressures, state, impact, response framework for policy and adaptive management options for Istanbul and other large complex conurbations. If there are periodic water resource issues and temperatures rise as expected in climate projections with an accompanying increase in the duration of hot spells, the subsequent additional stress on water systems might make managing future public health emergencies, such as a pandemic, even more difficult.}, }
@article {pmid37434625, year = {2023}, author = {Elayouty, A and Abou-Ali, H}, title = {Functional data analysis of the relationship between electricity consumption and climate change drivers.}, journal = {Journal of applied statistics}, volume = {50}, number = {10}, pages = {2267-2285}, pmid = {37434625}, issn = {0266-4763}, abstract = {Climate change has become increasingly important in recent years. It is the outcome of the burning of fossil fuels that increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), over the last century. Mitigating the impacts of climate change requires a better understanding and assessment of the countries' economic decisions on the amount of CO2 emissions. This paper assesses the variability between the different countries in the trends of CO2 emissions and electricity consumption from 1975 to 2014, while identifying clusters of countries of similar trends over time. The novel methodology applied in this paper enables us to assess long-debated issues in climate literature. The temporal dynamic effects of electricity consumption and economic growth on CO2 emissions across countries are studied using functional data analysis (FDA) methods. The latter have proven to be useful tools for visualising similarities and differences in the non-linear trends of CO2 emissions without forcing linear trends and stationary relationships which can be unrealistic and misleading. The results indicate the possibility of identifying changes in the trends of CO2 emissions and electricity consumption for a wide range of heterogeneous countries over the study period. The findings also reveal that economic growth puts a strain on the environment, where many high-income countries are still away from attaining economic-energy sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid37433291, year = {2023}, author = {Welzel, FD}, title = {[Climate Change, Health Literacy and Mental Health].}, journal = {Psychiatrische Praxis}, volume = {50}, number = {5}, pages = {231-233}, doi = {10.1055/a-2080-8463}, pmid = {37433291}, issn = {1439-0876}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Literacy ; Mental Health ; Germany ; }, }
@article {pmid37432511, year = {2023}, author = {Lloyd, G}, title = {COVID-19 and Climate Change: Re-thinking Human and Non-Human in Western Philosophy.}, journal = {Journal of bioethical inquiry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37432511}, issn = {1872-4353}, abstract = {The pre-conditions and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are inter-connected with those of climate change, prompting reflection on how to re-think the relations between human and non-human on a changing planet. This essay considers that issue with reference to the contrasts between the philosophies of Descartes and Spinoza, who offered radically different approaches to the conceptualization of human presence in Nature.}, }
@article {pmid37431659, year = {2023}, author = {Miles, G}, title = {How can healthcare systems become more resilient to the impacts of climate change?.}, journal = {Medicine, conflict, and survival}, volume = {39}, number = {3}, pages = {281-290}, doi = {10.1080/13623699.2023.2231692}, pmid = {37431659}, issn = {1362-3699}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; }, }
@article {pmid37429775, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, X and Shi, K and Zhang, Y and Qin, B and Zhang, Y and Wang, W and Woolway, RI and Piao, S and Jeppesen, E}, title = {Climate change drives rapid warming and increasing heatwaves of lakes.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {68}, number = {14}, pages = {1574-1584}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2023.06.028}, pmid = {37429775}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {Climate change could seriously threaten global lake ecosystems by warming lake surface water and increasing the occurrence of lake heatwaves. Yet, there are great uncertainties in quantifying lake temperature changes globally due to a lack of accurate large-scale model simulations. Here, we integrated satellite observations and a numerical model to improve lake temperature modeling and explore the multifaceted characteristics of trends in surface temperatures and lake heatwave occurrence in Chinese lakes from 1980 to 2100. Our model-data integration approach revealed that the lake surface waters have warmed at a rate of 0.11 °C 10a[-1] during the period 1980-2021, being only half of the pure model-based estimate. Moreover, our analysis suggested that an asymmetric seasonal warming rate has led to a reduced temperature seasonality in eastern plain lakes but an amplified one in alpine lakes. The durations of lake heatwaves have also increased at a rate of 7.7 d 10a[-1]. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, lake surface temperature and lake heatwave duration were projected to increase by 2.2 °C and 197 d at the end of the 21st century, respectively. Such drastic changes would worsen the environmental conditions of lakes subjected to high and increasing anthropogenic pressures, posing great threats to aquatic biodiversity and human health.}, }
@article {pmid37429181, year = {2023}, author = {Sartori, D and Scatena, G and Vrinceanu, CA and Gaion, A}, title = {Increased sensitivity of sea urchin larvae to metal toxicity as a consequence of the past two decades of Climate Change and Ocean Acidification in the Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {194}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {115274}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115274}, pmid = {37429181}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Mediterranean Sea ; *Seawater ; Climate Change ; Larva ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Ecosystem ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Ocean Acidification ; Sea Urchins ; *Paracentrotus ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean Sea represents a natural laboratory to infer the possible impacts of climate change and ocean acidification. In this article, we report the deteriorating ability of sea urchin larvae (Paracentrotus lividus) to cope with toxicity of a reference contaminant (Cu EC50) over the past 20 years and assessed the influence of 5 environmental factors from satellite measurements. This timeframe was divided in before and after January 2016 (46.57 μg/L vs 28.56 μg/L respectively, p < 0.001). In the second subset of data, correlation of the biological variable with CO2 and pH strengthened compared to the first part (rCO2-EC50: -0.21 vs -0.83 and rpH-EC50: 0.25 vs 0.87 respectively), with a causal link starting from one year and ending 4 months prior to EC50 measurements. Considering the continuous increase in CO2 concentrations recorded recently, this study could reveal a rapid deterioration of the health condition of this population of sea urchins in a coastal ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid37427707, year = {2023}, author = {Perez-Martinez, MB and Moo-Llanes, DA and Ibarra-Cerdeña, CN and Romero-Salas, D and Cruz-Romero, A and López-Hernández, KM and Aguilar-Dominguez, M}, title = {Worldwide comparison between the potential distribution of Rhipicephalus microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Medical and veterinary entomology}, volume = {37}, number = {4}, pages = {745-753}, doi = {10.1111/mve.12680}, pmid = {37427707}, issn = {1365-2915}, mesh = {Humans ; Cattle ; Animals ; *Ixodidae ; *Rhipicephalus ; Climate Change ; *Tick Infestations/veterinary ; *Cattle Diseases ; }, abstract = {The cattle tick Rhipicephalus microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) has demonstrated its ability to increase its distribution raising spatially its importance as a vector for zoonotic hemotropic pathogens. In this study, a global ecological niche model of R. microplus was built in different scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP), and a climatic dataset to determine where the species could establish itself and thus affect the variability in the presentation of the hemotropic diseases they transmit. America, Africa and Oceania showed a higher probability for the presence of R. microplus in contrast to some countries in Europe and Asia in the ecological niche for the current period (1970-2000), but with the climate change, there was an increase in the ratio between the geographic range preserved between the RCP and SSP scenarios obtaining the greatest gain in the interplay of RCP4.5-SSP245. Our results allow to determine future changes in the distribution of the cattle tick according to the increase in environmental temperature and socio-economic development influenced by human development activities and trends; this work explores the possibility of designing integral maps between the vector and specific diseases.}, }
@article {pmid37427463, year = {2023}, author = {Du, WG and Li, SR and Sun, BJ and Shine, R}, title = {Can nesting behaviour allow reptiles to adapt to climate change?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {1884}, pages = {20220153}, pmid = {37427463}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; *Nesting Behavior/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Reptiles ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Temperature ; Soil ; }, abstract = {A range of abiotic parameters within a reptile nest influence the viability and attributes (including sex, behaviour and body size) of hatchlings that emerge from that nest. As a result of that sensitivity, a reproducing female can manipulate the phenotypic attributes of her offspring by laying her eggs at times and in places that provide specific conditions. Nesting reptiles shift their behaviour in terms of timing of oviposition, nest location and depth of eggs beneath the soil surface across spatial and temporal gradients. Those maternal manipulations affect mean values and variances of both temperature and soil moisture, and may modify the vulnerability of embryos to threats such as predation and parasitism. By altering thermal and hydric conditions in reptile nests, climate change has the potential to dramatically modify the developmental trajectories and survival rates of embryos, and the phenotypes of hatchlings. Reproducing females buffer such effects by modifying the timing, location and structure of nests in ways that enhance offspring viability. Nonetheless, our understanding of nesting behaviours in response to climate change remains limited in reptiles. Priority topics for future studies include documenting climate-induced changes in the nest environment, the degree to which maternal behavioural shifts can mitigate climate-related deleterious impacts on offspring development, and ecological and evolutionary consequences of maternal nesting responses to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'The evolutionary ecology of nests: a cross-taxon approach'.}, }
@article {pmid37426009, year = {2023}, author = {Zboralski, A and Filion, M}, title = {Pseudomonas spp. can help plants face climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1198131}, pmid = {37426009}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly affecting agriculture through droughts, high salinity in soils, heatwaves, and floodings, which put intense pressure on crops. This results in yield losses, leading to food insecurity in the most affected regions. Multiple plant-beneficial bacteria belonging to the genus Pseudomonas have been shown to improve plant tolerance to these stresses. Various mechanisms are involved, including alteration of the plant ethylene levels, direct phytohormone production, emission of volatile organic compounds, reinforcement of the root apoplast barriers, and exopolysaccharide biosynthesis. In this review, we summarize the effects of climate change-induced stresses on plants and detail the mechanisms used by plant-beneficial Pseudomonas strains to alleviate them. Recommendations are made to promote targeted research on the stress-alleviating potential of these bacteria.}, }
@article {pmid37425189, year = {2023}, author = {La Greca, AM and Burdette, ET and Brodar, KE}, title = {Climate change and extreme weather disasters: evacuation stress is associated with youths' somatic complaints.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1196419}, pmid = {37425189}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Climate-change has brought about more frequent extreme-weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, and wildfires) that may require families to evacuate, without knowing precisely where and when the potential disaster will strike. Recent research indicates that evacuation is stressful for families and is associated with psychological distress. Yet, little is known about the potential impact of evacuation stressors on child health. After Hurricane Irma, which led to a mass evacuation in Florida, we examined whether evacuation stressors and hurricane exposure were uniquely associated with youth somatic complaints, and whether youth psychological distress (i.e., symptoms of posttraumatic stress, anxiety, and depression) served as a potential mediating pathway between evacuation stressors, hurricane experiences, and somatic complaints.<br><br>METHOD: Three months after Irma, 226 mothers of youth aged 7-17&#x2009;years (N=226; M age&#x2009;=&#x2009;9.76&#x2009;years; 52% boys; 31% Hispanic) living in the five southernmost Florida counties reported on evacuation stressors, hurricane-related life threat and loss/disruption, and their child's psychological distress and somatic complaints using standardized measures.<br><br>RESULTS: Structural equation modeling revealed a good model fit (&#x3c7;[2]&#x2009;=&#x2009;32.24, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.003, CFI&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.96, RMSEA&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.08, SRMR&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.04). Even controlling for life-threatening hurricane experiences (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.26) and hurricane loss and disruption (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.26), greater evacuation stressors were associated with greater symptoms of youth psychological distress (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.34; p's&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001), and greater psychological distress was associated with more somatic complaints (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.67; p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001). Indirect effects revealed that evacuation stressors (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001), actual life-threatening events (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.01), and loss and disruption (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.01) were all uniquely and indirectly associated with youths' somatic complaints via youth psychological distress.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Findings suggest that even coping with the threat of a disaster may be sufficient to prompt psychological and physical health symptoms in youth. Due in part to climate change, threats of disaster occur much more often than actual disaster exposure, especially for areas that are prone to hurricanes or wildfires. Preparing youth and families residing in vulnerable areas for potential disaster evacuation or sheltering-in-place appears critical. Encouraging families to develop Disaster Plans and teaching stress management skills may reduce both youth distress and somatic health problems.}, }
@article {pmid37425177, year = {2023}, author = {Parreira, N and Mouro, C}, title = {Living by the sea: place attachment, coastal risk perception, and eco-anxiety when coping with climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1155635}, pmid = {37425177}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change poses major threats to coastal regions. In Portugal, the Aveiro district is one of the most vulnerable areas due to urbanized areas' exposure to the dangers of rising water. The prospect of flood threats can trigger a range of cognitions and emotions that affect adaptation and mitigation measures' success. This study sought to examine whether active and traditional place attachment is associated with residents' active and passive coping strategies to deal with the risk of rising water levels. An additional aim was to clarify whether these relationships are mediated by risk perception and eco-anxiety. The links between individuals' level of trust in authorities and coping mechanisms were also examined. An online questionnaire was completed by 197 Aveiro residents. The data show that active place attachment is connected to greater risk perception, eco-anxiety, and adoption of active coping strategies (e.g., problem solving). Low eco-anxiety was also found to have a positive effect on active coping strategies. Lower trust in the responsible authorities was additionally associated with active coping mechanisms. Overall, the results support the sequential mediation model for active coping but not for passive coping. The findings reinforce the need to consider cognitive factors (e.g., risk perception) and emotional factors (e.g., place attachment and practical eco-anxiety) to understand more fully how coastal residents deal with flood threats. Practical implications for policymakers are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid37424524, year = {2023}, author = {Summers, J and Lukas, D and Logan, CJ and Chen, N}, title = {The role of climate change and niche shifts in divergent range dynamics of a sister-species pair.}, journal = {Peer community journal}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37424524}, issn = {2804-3871}, support = {R35 GM133412/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Species ranges are set by limitations in factors including climate tolerances, habitat use, and dispersal abilities. Understanding the factors governing species range dynamics remains a challenge that is ever more important in our rapidly changing world. Species ranges can shift if environmental changes affect available habitat, or if the niche or habitat connectivity of a species changes. We tested how changes in habitat availability, niche, or habitat connectivity could contribute to divergent range dynamics in a sister-species pair. The great-tailed grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus) has expanded its range northward from Texas to Nebraska in the past 40 years, while its closest relative, the boattailed grackle (Quiscalus major), has remained tied to the coasts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico as well as the interior of Florida. We created species distribution and connectivity models trained on citizen science data from 1970-1979 and 2010-2019 to determine how the availability of habitat, the types of habitat occupied, and range-wide connectivity have changed for both species. We found that the two species occupy distinct habitats and that the great-tailed grackle has shifted to occupy a larger breadth of urban, arid environments farther from natural water sources. Meanwhile, the boattailed grackle has remained limited to warm, wet, coastal environments. We found no evidence that changes in habitat connectivity affected the ranges of either species. Overall, our results suggest that the great-tailed grackle has shifted its realized niche as part of its rapid range expansion, while the range dynamics of the boat-tailed grackle may be shaped more by climate change. The expansion in habitats occupied by the great-tailed grackle is consistent with observations that species with high behavioral flexibility can rapidly expand their geographic range by using human-altered habitat. This investigation identifies how opposite responses to anthropogenic change could drive divergent range dynamics, elucidating the factors that have and will continue to shape species ranges.}, }
@article {pmid37422317, year = {2023}, author = {Budolfson, KC and Etzel, RA}, title = {Climate Change and Child Health Equity.}, journal = {Pediatric clinics of North America}, volume = {70}, number = {4}, pages = {837-853}, doi = {10.1016/j.pcl.2023.03.012}, pmid = {37422317}, issn = {1557-8240}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; Public Health ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The climate crisis is a major public health threat for children, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable populations. Climate change causes a myriad of health issues for children, including respiratory illness, heat stress, infectious disease, the effects of weather-related disasters, and psychological sequelae. Pediatric clinicians must identify and address these issues in the clinical setting. Strong advocacy from pediatric clinicians is needed to help prevent the worst effects of the climate crisis and to support the elimination of use of fossil fuels and enactment of climate-friendly policies.}, }
@article {pmid37421154, year = {2023}, author = {Quetin, GR and Anderegg, LDL and Boving, I and Anderegg, WRL and Trugman, AT}, title = {Observed forest trait velocities have not kept pace with hydraulic stress from climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {18}, pages = {5415-5428}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16847}, pmid = {37421154}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2003205//National Science Foundation/ ; 2017949//National Science Foundation/ ; 2216855//National Science Foundation/ ; 2018-67012-31496//U.S. Department of Agriculture/ ; }, mesh = {United States ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Drought Resistance ; Acclimatization ; Plant Leaves ; Droughts ; }, abstract = {The extent to which future climate change will increase forest stress and the amount to which species and forest ecosystems can acclimate or adapt to increased stress is a major unknown. We used high-resolution maps of hydraulic traits representing the diversity in tree drought tolerance across the United States, a hydraulically enabled tree model, and forest inventory observations of demographic shifts to quantify the ability for within-species acclimation and between-species range shifts to mediate climate stress. We found that forests are likely to experience increases in both acute and chronic hydraulic stress with climate change. Based on current species distributions, regional hydraulic trait diversity was sufficient to buffer against increased stress in 88% of forested areas. However, observed trait velocities in 81% of forested areas are not keeping up with the rate required to ameliorate projected future stress without leaf area acclimation.}, }
@article {pmid37419363, year = {2023}, author = {Bai, X and Zhao, W}, title = {Impacts of climate change and anthropogenic stressors on runoff variations in major river basins in China since 1950.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {898}, number = {}, pages = {165349}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165349}, pmid = {37419363}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Runoff is one of the main components of hydrological cycle and an important index for water resources evaluation, understanding the runoff change and their causes is vital to water resource management. In the study, we analyzed the runoff change and the impacts of climate change and land use alteration on runoff variation based on natural runoff and previous studies in China. The results showed that there was a significant increasing trend in the annual runoff during 1961-2018 (p < 0.05), with change rate of 0.4 mm/a and abrupt point at 1999 across China, climate change dominated the runoff variation with a contribution of 54 %. In previous studies, the runoff of the major basins in China had a downward trend on the whole (-0.99 mm/a) except Continental River Basin (CRB) showed an increasing trend (0.25 mm/a), the abrupt points were mainly concentrated in 1991-2000, and human activity was the leading factor of runoff change with the contribution of 54 % across China. Human activity was the dominant factor of runoff change in Songhua and Liao River Basin (SLRB), Yellow River Basin (YRB), Hai River Basin (HRB) and Pearl River Basin (PRB), the contribution was >56 %, while climate change was the dominant factor of runoff change in Huai River Basin (HuRB), CRB, and Yangtze River Basin (YZRB). Overall, there was a significant correlation between runoff and precipitation, unused land, urban and grassland in China. We concluded that runoff change and the contribution of climate change and human activities varies greatly among different basins. The findings in this work can shed light on the quantitative understanding of runoff changes in national scale and offer a scientific basis for sustainable water management.}, }
@article {pmid37419344, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, Y and Ye, A and Zhang, Y and Yang, F}, title = {The quantitative attribution of climate change to runoff increase over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {897}, number = {}, pages = {165326}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165326}, pmid = {37419344}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Runoff from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, a major global water tower, is crucial to regional hydrological processes and the availability of water for a large population living downstream. Climate change, especially changes in precipitation and temperature, directly impacts hydrological processes and exacerbates shifts in the cryosphere, such as glacier and snow melt, leading to changes in runoff. Although there is a consensus on increased runoff due to climate change, it is still unclear to what extent precipitation and temperature contribute to runoff variations. This lack of understanding is one of the primary sources of uncertainty when assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change. In this study, a large-scale, high-resolution, and well-calibrated distributed hydrological model was employed to quantify the long-term runoff of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and the changes in runoff and runoff coefficient were analyzed. Furthermore, the impacts of precipitation and temperature on runoff variation were quantitatively estimated. The results found that runoff and runoff coefficient decreased from southeast to northwest, with mean values of 184.77 mm and 0.37, respectively. Notably, the runoff coefficient exhibited a significant increasing trend of 1.27 %/10 yr (P < 0.001), while the southeastern and northern regions of the plateau showed a declining tendency. We further showed that the warming and humidification of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau led to an increase in the runoff by 9.13 mm/10 yr (P < 0.001). And precipitation is a more important contributor than temperature across the plateau, contributing 72.08 % and 27.92 % to the runoff increase, respectively. At the basin scale, the influence of precipitation and temperature on runoff varies among basins, with the Daduhe basin and the Inner basin being the most and least influenced by precipitation, respectively. This research analyses historical runoff changes on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and provides insights into the contributions of climate change to runoff.}, }
@article {pmid37419337, year = {2023}, author = {Kozar, D and Dong, X and Li, L}, title = {The recovery of river chemistry from acid rain in the Mississippi River basin amid intensifying anthropogenic activities and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {897}, number = {}, pages = {165311}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165311}, pmid = {37419337}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Acid rain has degraded the environmental health of many regions worldwide since the Industrial Revolution. Signatures of river chemistry recovery from acid rain since the Clean Air Act and similar legislation have been reported extensively in small streams but are often subdued or masked in large rivers by complex, co-occurring drivers. Here we assess the recovery of river chemistry from acid rain deposition in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), the largest river basin in North America. We combine analysis of temporal trends of acid rain indicator solutes with Bayesian statistical models to assess the large-scale recovery from acid rain and characterize effects of anthropogenic activities. We found evidence of river chemistry recovery from acid rain; however, the effects of other anthropogenic activities, including fertilizer application and road salting, and changing climate, are likely intensifying. Trends of pH, alkalinity and SO4 export suggest acid rain recovery at large in the MRB, with stronger evidence of recovery in the historically afflicted eastern region of the basin. The concentrations of acid rain indicators generally correlate positively to NO3 and Cl, indicating that N-fertilizer application may have significantly increased weathering, and possibly acidification, and road salt application likely increased cation loss from catchments and contributed to SO4 export. Temperature correlates positively with solute concentrations, possibly through respiration-driven weathering or evaporation. The concentrations of acid rain indicators correlate negatively and most strongly to discharge, indicating discharge as a predominant driver and that lower discharge during droughts can elevate concentrations of riverine solutes in a changing climate. Using long-term data, this study represents a rare, comprehensive assessment of the recovery from acid rain in a large river basin, taking into consideration the entangled effects of multiple human activities and climate change. Our results highlight the ever-present need for adaptive environmental management in a constantly changing world.}, }
@article {pmid37417247, year = {2023}, author = {Clark, CM and Phelan, J and Ash, J and Buckley, J and Cajka, J and Horn, K and Thomas, RQ and Sabo, RD}, title = {Future climate change effects on US forest composition may offset benefits of reduced atmospheric deposition of N and S.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {17}, pages = {4793-4810}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16817}, pmid = {37417247}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Trees ; Biomass ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) are important drivers of forest demography. Here we apply previously derived growth and survival responses for 94 tree species, representing >90% of the contiguous US forest basal area, to project how changes in mean annual temperature, precipitation, and N and S deposition from 20 different future scenarios may affect forest composition to 2100. We find that under the low climate change scenario (RCP 4.5), reductions in aboveground tree biomass from higher temperatures are roughly offset by increases in aboveground tree biomass from reductions in N and S deposition. However, under the higher climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) the decreases from climate change overwhelm increases from reductions in N and S deposition. These broad trends underlie wide variation among species. We found averaged across temperature scenarios the relative abundance of 60 species were projected to decrease more than 5% and 20 species were projected to increase more than 5%; and reductions of N and S deposition led to a decrease for 13 species and an increase for 40 species. This suggests large shifts in the composition of US forests in the future. Negative climate effects were mostly from elevated temperature and were not offset by scenarios with wetter conditions. We found that by 2100 an estimated 1 billion trees under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 20 billion trees under the RCP 8.5 scenario may be pushed outside the temperature record upon which these relationships were derived. These results may not fully capture future changes in forest composition as several other factors were not included. Overall efforts to reduce atmospheric deposition of N and S will likely be insufficient to overcome climate change impacts on forest demography across much of the United States unless we adhere to the low climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid37417064, year = {2023}, author = {Acharya, S}, title = {The impact of climate change on paediatric dentistry.}, journal = {Indian journal of dental research : official publication of Indian Society for Dental Research}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {87-89}, doi = {10.4103/ijdr.ijdr_663_22}, pmid = {37417064}, issn = {1998-3603}, mesh = {Child, Preschool ; Humans ; Child ; *Climate Change ; *Pediatric Dentistry ; Environment ; }, abstract = {The effects of global warming and climate change are happening at a faster rate than expected, and they are going to get worse. Global climate change has already started to show the effects on environment-fast melting glaciers, accelerated sea level rise and base shifting of native flora and fauna. There has been an increase in temperature globally with a few countries already showing intense heat waves and extreme cold temperatures. The interrelation between dentistry, environmental impact and human health is still in its nascent stage, but studies in medicine show that the healthcare industry contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, poor air quality, food and water insecurity, extreme weather events and vector-borne illnesses. The concept of eco-friendly dentistry has evolved in this context for providing environmentally feasible dental solutions. Paediatric dentistry is no exception. The concept of prevention has to be promoted more in paediatric dentistry to provide a positive impact on environment. The prevention of oral diseases will lead to less travel to paediatric dental clinics, less use of dental materials, lesser energy usage, minimal use of single-use plastics and less use of nitrous oxide/general anaesthesia for behaviour management. The greenhouse gases have an effect on teeth of children in relation to early childhood caries (ECC). Here, we discuss the impact of climate change on paediatric dentistry and what changes can be made to provide environment-friendly solutions.}, }
@article {pmid37416643, year = {2023}, author = {Mkala, EM and Mwanzia, V and Nzei, J and Oluoch, WA and Ngarega, BK and Wanga, VO and Oulo, MA and Ngarega, BK and Munyao, F and Kilingo, FM and Rono, P and Waswa, EN and Mutinda, ES and Ochieng, CO and Mwachala, G and Hu, GW and Wang, QF and Katunge, JK and Victoire, CI}, title = {Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered endemic annonaceae species in east africa.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e17405}, pmid = {37416643}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Globally, endemic species and natural habitats have been significantly impacted by climate change, and further considerable impacts are predicted. Therefore, understanding how endemic species are impacted by climate change can aid in advancing the necessary conservation initiatives. The use of niche modeling is becoming a popular topic in biological conservation to forecast changes in species distributions under various climate change scenarios. This study used the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1 (ACCESS-CM2) general circulation model of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for the four threatened Annonaceae species endemic to East Africa (EA), to determine the impact of climate change on their suitable habitat in the years 2050 (average for 2041-2060) and 2070 (average for 2061-2080). Two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) SSP370 and SSP585 were used to project the contraction and expansion of suitable habitats for Uvariodendron kirkii, Uvaria kirkii, Uvariodendron dzomboense and Asteranthe asterias endemic to Kenya and Tanzania in EA. The current distribution for all four species is highly influenced by precipitation, temperature, and environmental factors (population, potential evapotranspiration, and aridity index). Although the loss of the original suitable habitat is anticipated to be significant, appropriate habitat expansion and contraction are projections for all species. More than 70% and 40% of the original habitats of Uvariodendron dzombense and Uvariodendron kirkii are predicted to be destroyed by climate change, respectively. Based on our research, we suggest that areas that are expected to shrink owing to climate change be classified as important protection zones for the preservation of Annonaceae species.}, }
@article {pmid37415774, year = {2023}, author = {Willwerth, J and Sheahan, M and Chan, N and Fant, C and Martinich, J and Kolian, M}, title = {The effects of climate change on outdoor recreation participation in the United States: Projections for the 21[st] century.}, journal = {Weather, climate, and society (Print)}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {477-492}, pmid = {37415774}, issn = {1948-8327}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to impact individuals' recreational choices, as changing temperatures and precipitation patterns influence participation in outdoor recreation and alternative activities. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between weather and outdoor recreation using nationally representative data from the contiguous United States. We find that across most outdoor recreational activities, participation is lowest on the coldest days (<35 degrees Fahrenheit) and highest at moderately high temperatures (80 to 90 degrees). Notable exceptions to this trend include water sports and snow and ice sports, for which participation peaks at the highest and lowest temperatures, respectively. If individuals continue to respond to temperature changes the same way that they have in the recent past, in a future climate that has fewer cool days and more moderate and hot days, our model anticipates net participation across all outdoor recreation activities will increase by 88 million trips annually at 1 degree Celsius of warming (CONUS) and up to 401 million trips at 6 degrees of warming, valued between $3.2 billion and $15.6 billion in consumer surplus annually (2010 population). The increase in trips is driven by participation in water sports; excluding water sports from future projections decreases the consumer surplus gains by approximately 75 percent across all modeled degrees of warming. If individuals in northern regions respond to temperature like people in southern regions currently do (a proxy for adaptation), total outdoor recreation trips will increase by an additional 17 percent compared to no adaptation at 6 degrees of warming. This benefit is generally not seen at lower degrees of warming.}, }
@article {pmid37415722, year = {2023}, author = {Twala, TC and Fisher, JT and Glennon, KL}, title = {Projecting Podocarpaceae response to climate change: we are not out of the woods yet.}, journal = {AoB PLANTS}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {plad034}, pmid = {37415722}, issn = {2041-2851}, abstract = {Under the changing climate, the persistence of Afrotemperate taxa may be threatened as suitable habitat availability decreases. The unique disjunct ranges of podocarps in southern Africa raise questions about the persistence of these species under climate change. Here, we identified likely environmental drivers of these distributions, characterized the current and future (2070) environmental niches, and projected distributions of four podocarp species in South Africa. Species distribution models were conducted using species locality data for Afrocarpus falcatus, Podocarpus latifolius, Pseudotropheus elongatus and Podocarpus henkelii and both historical climate data (1970-2000) and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5, 2061-2080) to estimate the current and future distributions. We also used this opportunity to identify the most important climatic variables that likely govern each species' distribution. Using niche overlap estimates, a similarity test, and indices of niche expansion, stability and unfilling, we explored how niches change under different climate scenarios. The distribution of the study species was governed by the maximum temperature of the warmest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and precipitation of the wettest, driest and warmest quarters. The current distribution of A. falcatus was predicted to expand to higher elevations under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Podocarpus henkelii was predicted to lose most of its suitable habitat under RCP 4.5 and expand under RCP 8.5; however, this was the opposite for P. elongatus and P. latifolius. Interestingly, P. elongatus, which had the smallest geographic distribution, showed the most vulnerability to climate change in comparison to the other podocarps. Mapping the distribution of podocarps and understanding the differences in their current and future climate niches provide insight into potential climate drivers of podocarp persistence and the potential for adaptation of these species. Overall, these results suggest that P. elongatus and P. henkelii may expand to novel environmental niches.}, }
@article {pmid37415292, year = {2023}, author = {Robles-Zazueta, CA and Crespo-Herrera, LA and Piñera-Chavez, FJ and Rivera-Amado, C and Aradottir, GI}, title = {Climate change impacts on crop breeding: Targeting interacting biotic and abiotic stresses for wheat improvement.}, journal = {The plant genome}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e20365}, doi = {10.1002/tpg2.20365}, pmid = {37415292}, issn = {1940-3372}, support = {//Heat and Drought Wheat Improvement Consortium/ ; //United States Agency for International Development/ ; //Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research/ ; //International Wheat Yield Partnership/ ; //Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation/ ; //UK Foreign and Commonwealth Development Office/ ; //Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers/ ; }, abstract = {Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) as a staple crop is closely interwoven into the development of modern society. Its influence on culture and economic development is global. Recent instability in wheat markets has demonstrated its importance in guaranteeing food security across national borders. Climate change threatens food security as it interacts with a multitude of factors impacting wheat production. The challenge needs to be addressed with a multidisciplinary perspective delivered across research, private, and government sectors. Many experimental studies have identified the major biotic and abiotic stresses impacting wheat production, but fewer have addressed the combinations of stresses that occur simultaneously or sequentially during the wheat growth cycle. Here, we argue that biotic and abiotic stress interactions, and the genetics and genomics underlying them, have been insufficiently addressed by the crop science community. We propose this as a reason for the limited transfer of practical and feasible climate adaptation knowledge from research projects into routine farming practice. To address this gap, we propose that novel methodology integration can align large volumes of data available from crop breeding programs with increasingly cheaper omics tools to predict wheat performance under different climate change scenarios. Underlying this is our proposal that breeders design and deliver future wheat ideotypes based on new or enhanced understanding of the genetic and physiological processes that are triggered when wheat is subjected to combinations of stresses. By defining this to a trait and/or genetic level, new insights can be made for yield improvement under future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37410987, year = {2023}, author = {Wade, R}, title = {Climate Change and Healthcare: Creating a Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Health Delivery System.}, journal = {Journal of healthcare management / American College of Healthcare Executives}, volume = {68}, number = {4}, pages = {227-238}, pmid = {37410987}, issn = {1096-9012}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Health Facilities ; Hospitals ; Delivery of Health Care ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses global challenges as rising temperatures, recurring natural disasters, and the resulting increase in the prevalence of acute and long-term climate-related diseases threaten the health and safety of populations worldwide. The healthcare sector, one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions globally, both exacerbates and suffers from these effects. As leaders in their local communities and the national economy, hospitals and health systems have a responsibility to not only build climate resilience to withstand disaster events but also implement sustainability initiatives that will reduce the healthcare sector's carbon footprint. A wide variety of initiatives that can meet all financial plans and timelines are available. This discussion focuses on three of the most impactful areas for opportunity: building resilience through community, operating room sustainability, and renewable energy sources.}, }
@article {pmid37410101, year = {2023}, author = {Karl, S and Meyer-Lindenberg, A}, title = {[Climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution: consequences for psychiatry].}, journal = {Der Nervenarzt}, volume = {94}, number = {11}, pages = {1019-1025}, pmid = {37410101}, issn = {1433-0407}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Health Promotion ; *Mental Disorders ; Mental Health ; *Psychiatry ; }, abstract = {The climate crisis, loss of biodiversity and increasing global pollution are a threat to mental health. Comprehensive transformations are needed to overcome these crises, which will also affect the mental healthcare system. If done correctly these change processes can seize the chance to improve mental health while at the same time addressing the crises. This includes avoiding the need for psychiatric treatment by strengthening the focus on mental health promotion and prevention, and also considering environmental aspects when targetting therapy procedures. In addition, by focusing on nutrition, mobility and the effects of nature, patients can be empowered to increase their mental resilience whilst reducing the negative effects on the environment. At the same time, the mental healthcare system must adapt to changing environmental conditions: increasing heat waves make protective measures necessary, especially for people with mental illnesses and increasing extreme weather events can lead to shifts in the spectrum of illnesses. Appropriate funding mechanisms will have to be established to support mental healthcare throughout this transformation.}, }
@article {pmid37409981, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, TR and Meng, HH and Wang, N and Zheng, SS and Jiang, Y and Lin, DQ and Song, YG and Kozlowski, G}, title = {Adaptive divergence and genetic vulnerability of relict species under climate change: a case study of Pterocarya macroptera.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {132}, number = {2}, pages = {241-254}, pmid = {37409981}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Humans ; *Genetics, Population ; *Climate Change ; China ; Gene Flow ; Forests ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide/genetics ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Understanding adaptive genetic variation and whether it can keep pace with predicted future climate change is critical in assessing the genetic vulnerability of species and developing conservation management strategies. The lack of information on adaptive genetic variation in relict species carrying abundant genetic resources hinders the assessment of genetic vulnerability. Using a landscape genomics approach, this study aimed to determine how adaptive genetic variation shapes population divergence and to predict the adaptive potential of Pterocarya macroptera (a vulnerable relict species in China) under future climate scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: We applied restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) to obtain 8244 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 160 individuals across 28 populations. We examined the pattern of genetic diversity and divergence, and then identified outliers by genetic differentiation (FST) and genotype-environment association (GEA) methods. We further dissected the effect of geographical/environmental gradients on genetic variation. Finally, we predicted genetic vulnerability and adaptive risk under future climate scenarios.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: We identified three genetic lineages within P. macroptera: the Qinling-Daba-Tianmu Mountains (QDT), Western Sichuan (WS) and Northwest Yunnan (NWY) lineages, which showed significant signals of isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE). IBD and IBE explained 3.7-5.7 and 8.6-12.8 % of the genetic structure, respectively. The identified GEA SNP-related genes were involved in chemical defence and gene regulation and may exhibit higher genetic variation to adapt to the environment. Gradient forest analysis revealed that the genetic variation was mainly shaped by temperature-related variables, indicating its adaptation to local thermal environments. A limited adaptive potential was suggested by the high levels of genetic vulnerability in marginal populations.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Environmental gradient mainly shaped the population differentiation of P. macroptera. Marginal populations may be at high risk of extinction, and thus proactive management measures, such as assisted gene flow, are required to ensure the survival of these populations.}, }
@article {pmid37409538, year = {2023}, author = {Erratt, KJ and Creed, IF and Lobb, DA and Smol, JP and Trick, CG}, title = {Climate change amplifies the risk of potentially toxigenic cyanobacteria.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {18}, pages = {5240-5249}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16838}, pmid = {37409538}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {06579-2014//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; 4458-2016//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; 448172-2014//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Microcystins ; Climate Change ; *Cyanobacteria ; Lakes/microbiology ; Biomass ; Eutrophication ; }, abstract = {Cyanobacterial blooms pose a significant threat to water security, with anthropogenic forcing being implicated as a key driver behind the recent upsurge and global expansion of cyanobacteria in modern times. The potential effects of land-use alterations and climate change can lead to complicated, less-predictable scenarios in cyanobacterial management, especially when forecasting cyanobacterial toxin risks. There is a growing need for further investigations into the specific stressors that stimulate cyanobacterial toxins, as well as resolving the uncertainty surrounding the historical or contemporary nature of cyanobacterial-associated risks. To address this gap, we employed a paleolimnological approach to reconstruct cyanobacterial abundance and microcystin-producing potential in temperate lakes situated along a human impact gradient. We identified breakpoints (i.e., points of abrupt change) in these time series and examined the impact of landscape and climatic properties on their occurrence. Our findings indicate that lakes subject to greater human influence exhibited an earlier onset of cyanobacterial biomass by 40 years compared to less-impacted lakes, with land-use change emerging as the dominant predictor. Moreover, microcystin-producing potential increased in both high- and low-impact lakes around the 1980s, with climate warming being the primary driver. Our findings chronicle the importance of climate change in increasing the risk of toxigenic cyanobacteria in freshwater resources.}, }
@article {pmid37409536, year = {2023}, author = {Tagliabue, A and Twining, BS and Barrier, N and Maury, O and Berger, M and Bopp, L}, title = {Ocean iron fertilization may amplify climate change pressures on marine animal biomass for limited climate benefit.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {18}, pages = {5250-5260}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16854}, pmid = {37409536}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {724289//H2020 European Research Council/ ; 817578//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; NE/S013547/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; //Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Iron ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Oceans and Seas ; Fertilization ; }, abstract = {Climate change scenarios suggest that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be required to maintain global warming below 2°C, leading to renewed attention on ocean iron fertilization (OIF). Previous OIF modelling has found that while carbon export increases, nutrient transport to lower latitude ecosystems declines, resulting in a modest impact on atmospheric CO2 . However, the interaction of these CDR responses with ongoing climate change is unknown. Here, we combine global ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem models to show that, while stimulating carbon sequestration, OIF may amplify climate-induced declines in tropical ocean productivity and ecosystem biomass under a high-emission scenario, with very limited potential atmospheric CO2 drawdown. The 'biogeochemical fingerprint' of climate change, that leads to depletion of upper ocean major nutrients due to upper ocean stratification, is reinforced by OIF due to greater major nutrient consumption. Our simulations show that reductions in upper trophic level animal biomass in tropical regions due to climate change would be exacerbated by OIF within ~20 years, especially in coastal exclusive economic zones (EEZs), with potential implications for fisheries that underpin the livelihoods and economies of coastal communities. Any fertilization-based CDR should therefore consider its interaction with ongoing climate-driven changes and the ensuing ecosystem impacts in national EEZs.}, }
@article {pmid37408959, year = {2023}, author = {Jylhä, KM and Ojala, M and Odisho, S and Riise, A}, title = {Climate-friendly food-choice intentions among emerging adults: extending the theory of planned behavior with objective ambivalence, climate-change worry and optimism.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1178449}, pmid = {37408959}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate-friendly food choices are still relatively rarely addressed in studies investigating climate engagement, particularly among young people. To address this research gap, we conducted a questionnaire study with senior high school students (N = 474). Our overarching theoretical framework is the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), which we extended with emotional factors (climate-change worry and optimism) and attitudinal ambivalence. We found that all factors included, except for optimism, correlated with the food-choice intentions. In multiple regression analyses, worry was the second strongest predictor, after attitudes. Moreover, a measure of objective ambivalence moderated the correlation between attitudes and intentions by weakening it. The results support the validity of using the TPB model when explaining intentions to make climate-friendly food choices among emerging adults. However, our results suggest that it is also important to consider emotions-in this case climate-change worry-and the existence of conflicting evaluations about choosing climate-friendly food.}, }
@article {pmid37407348, year = {2023}, author = {Marwah, H}, title = {How the threat of climate change inspired my career in medicine (and I'm not the only one).}, journal = {EBioMedicine}, volume = {93}, number = {}, pages = {104689}, doi = {10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104689}, pmid = {37407348}, issn = {2352-3964}, }
@article {pmid37407065, year = {2023}, author = {Rivard, L and Lehoux, P and Rocha de Oliveira, R and Alami, H}, title = {Thematic analysis of tools for health innovators and organisation leaders to develop digital health solutions fit for climate change.}, journal = {BMJ leader}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/leader-2022-000697}, pmid = {37407065}, issn = {2398-631X}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: While ethicists have largely underscored the risks raised by digital health solutions that operate with or without artificial intelligence (AI), limited research has addressed the need to also mitigate their environmental footprint and equip health innovators as well as organisation leaders to meet responsibility requirements that go beyond clinical safety, efficacy and ethics. Drawing on the Responsible Innovation in Health framework, this qualitative study asks: (1) what are the practice-oriented tools available for innovators to develop environmentally sustainable digital solutions and (2) how are organisation leaders supposed to support them in this endeavour?<br><br>METHODS: Focusing on a subset of 34 tools identified through a comprehensive scoping review (health sciences, computer sciences, engineering and social sciences), our qualitative thematic analysis identifies and illustrates how two responsibility principles-environmental sustainability and organisational responsibility-are meant to be put in practice.<br><br>RESULTS: Guidance to make environmentally sustainable digital solutions is found in 11 tools whereas organisational responsibility is described in 33 tools. The former tools focus on reducing energy and materials consumption as well as pollution and waste production. The latter tools highlight executive roles for data risk management, data ethics and AI ethics. Only four tools translate environmental sustainability issues into tangible organisational responsibilities.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Recognising that key design and development decisions in the digital health industry are largely shaped by market considerations, this study indicates that significant work lies ahead for medical and organisation leaders to support the development of solutions fit for climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37406369, year = {2023}, author = {Guo, J and Liu, L and Zhang, G and Yue, R and Wang, T and Zhang, X and Yang, S and Zhang, Y and Wang, K and Long, H and Feng, Q and Chen, Y}, title = {Temporal and spatial analysis of anthropogenic mercury and CO2 emissions from municipal solid waste incineration in China: Implications for mercury and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {178}, number = {}, pages = {108068}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2023.108068}, pmid = {37406369}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Humans ; Incineration/methods ; Solid Waste ; *Mercury/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; Climate Change ; China ; Spatial Analysis ; }, abstract = {The contribution of municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) to anthropogenic mercury and CO2 emissions have become increasingly important over the past decade. This study developed an inventory of anthropogenic mercury emissions and CO2 emissions during the period of 2014-2020, of MSWI process in China using a bottom-up inventory at the plant level. Overall, national MSWI anthropogenic mercury emissions increased from 2014 to 2020 by province. It was estimated that total 8321.09 kg of anthropogenic mercury emissions from 548 MSWI plants were scattered in 31 provinces of mainland China in 2020. The average intensity of mercury emission in China was 0.06 g·t[-1] in 2020, which was much lower than the pre-2010 level. Furthermore, the increased CO2 emission generated by MSWI from 2014 to 2020 is 1.97 times. Anthropogenic mercury emissions and CO2 emissions were concentrated mainly in developed coastal provinces and cities. The general uncertainty of national mercury emissions and CO2 emissions was estimated to be -123% to 323% and -130% to 335%, respectively. Furthermore, future emissions were predicted from 2030 to 2060 based on different scenarios of the independent and collaborative effects of control proposals, the results indicate that the enhancement of advanced air pollution control technologies and effective management of MSWI represent pivotal factors in realizing future reductions in CO2 and mercury emissions. The findings will supplement those for mercury and CO2 emissions, and be useful for relevant policy-making and to improve urban air quality, as well as human health.}, }
@article {pmid37406103, year = {2023}, author = {Carey, J}, title = {While some tout "renewable natural gas" as a way to mitigate climate change, others see a false solution.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {28}, pages = {e2309976120}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2309976120}, pmid = {37406103}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid37405976, year = {2023}, author = {Vieira, J and Castro, SL and Souza, AS}, title = {Psychological barriers moderate the attitude-behavior gap for climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {7}, pages = {e0287404}, pmid = {37405976}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Attitude ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Behavioral change has been increasingly recognized as a means for combating climate change. However, being concerned about climate problems and knowing the importance of individual actions in mitigating them is not enough for greater adherence to a more sustainable lifestyle. Psychological barriers such as (1) finding change unnecessary; (2) conflicting goals; (3) interpersonal relationships; (4) lack of knowledge; and (5) tokenism have been proposed as an explanation for the gap between environmental attitudes and actions. Yet, so far, this hypothesis has remained untested. This study aimed to assess if psychological barriers moderate the association between environmental attitudes and climate action. A sample of Portuguese individuals (N = 937) responded to a survey measuring climate change beliefs and environmental concerns as an index of environmental attitudes, a scale of self-reported frequency of environmental action, and finally, the dragons of inaction psychological barrier scale. Our participants revealed generally elevated positive environmental attitudes. These attitudes were positively and moderately related to greater self-reported frequency of environmental action in areas such as reusing materials, reduced consumption of animal products, water and energy saving, and airplane use, but not driving less. Critically, the association between attitudes and behavior was negatively moderated by psychological barriers for the reuse, food, and saving domains, but not for driving or flying. In conclusion, our results corroborate the assumption that psychological barriers can partly explain the attitude-behavior gap in the climate action domain.}, }
@article {pmid37405570, year = {2023}, author = {Pang, T and Wang, X and Nawaz, RA and Keefe, G and Adekanmbi, T}, title = {Coastal erosion and climate change: A review on coastal-change process and modeling.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {52}, number = {12}, pages = {2034-2052}, pmid = {37405570}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Floods ; Computer Simulation ; Risk Assessment ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Coastal erosion is a normal process of nature. However, the rate of coastal erosion, and the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding events, are now on the rise around the world due to the changing climate. Current responses to coastal erosion are primarily determined by site-specific factors, such as coastal elevation, coastal slope, coastal features, and historical coastline change rate, without a systematic understanding of the coastal-change processes in the context of climate change, including spatiotemporal changes in sea level, regional changes in wave climate, and sea ice coverage. In the absence of a clear understanding of the coastal-change processes, most of the current coastal responses have been built upon a risky assumption (i.e., the present-day coastal change will persist) and are not resilient to future climate change. Here, we conduct a literature review to summarize the latest scientific understanding of the coastal-change processes under climate change and the potential research gaps towards the prediction of future coastal erosion. Our review suggests that a coupled coastal simulation system with a nearshore wave model (e.g., SWAN, MIKE21, etc.) can play a critical role in both the short-term and long-term coastal risk assessment and protective measure development.}, }
@article {pmid37403429, year = {2023}, author = {Phoenix, GK and Khafsha, AH}, title = {Untangling the influences of air quality and climate change on biodiversity in space and time.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {18}, pages = {5115-5116}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16858}, pmid = {37403429}, issn = {1365-2486}, }
@article {pmid37402910, year = {2023}, author = {Pant, P and Rajawat, AS and Goyal, SB and Chakrabarti, P and Bedi, P and Salau, AO}, title = {Machine learning-based approach to predict ice meltdown in glaciers due to climate change and solutions.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {60}, pages = {125176-125187}, pmid = {37402910}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ice Cover ; Biodiversity ; Temperature ; Fossil Fuels ; }, abstract = {The fate of humankind and all other life forms on earth is threatened by a foe, known as climate change. All parts of the world are affected directly or indirectly by this phenomenon. The rivers are drying up in some places and in other places, it is flooding. The global temperature is rising every year and the heat waves are taking many souls. The cloud of "extinction" is upon the majority of flora and fauna; even humans are prone to various fatal and life-shortening diseases from pollution. This is all caused by us. The so-called "development" by deforestation, releasing toxic chemicals into air and water, burning of fossil fuels in the name of industrialisation, and many others have made an irreversible cut in the heart of the environment. However, it is not too late; all of this could be healed back with the help of technology and our efforts together. As per the international climate reports, the average global temperature has increased by a little more than 1 °C since 1880s. The research is primarily focused on the use of machine learning and its algorithm to train a model that predicts the ice meltdown of a glacier, given the features using the Multivariate Linear Regression. The research strongly encourages the use of features by manipulating them to determine the feature with a major impact on the cause. The burning of coal and fossil fuels is the main source of pollution as per the study. The research focuses on the challenges to gather data that would be faced by the researchers and the requirement of the system for the development of the model. The study is aimed to spread awareness in society about the destruction we have caused and urges everyone to come forward and save the planet.}, }
@article {pmid37402849, year = {2023}, author = {Vieira, RA and McManus, C}, title = {Bibliographic mapping of animal genetic resources and climate change in farm animals.}, journal = {Tropical animal health and production}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {259}, pmid = {37402849}, issn = {1573-7438}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Animals, Domestic ; Bibliometrics ; Software ; China ; }, abstract = {Bibliometric mapping is a tool that allows you to visualize the academic production, as well as the publication trends over the years. In this study, we carried out the bibliometric mapping of citation, co-occurrence of keywords, co-citation, and bibliographic coupling for "animal genetic resources" and "climate change." Scopus was used to obtain the publication information and VOSViewer software to produce the maps. A total of 1171 documents were found from authors in 129 countries from 1975 to 2022. The USA, UK, and China are the top three countries producing scientific research on the topics of animal genetic resources and climate change. China is the country with the most recent publications. The USA, the UK, and China stood out in almost all the analyses, but other Asian and Latin American countries appear more recently and are becoming more important in this scenario. Most of the work is related to studies involving animal adaptation, conservation, and genetic diversity; however, in recent years, there has been an increasing amount of research involving genetic engineering, such as the use of genetic sequencing and single nucleotide polimorphism (SNP). This study can help to understand new research trends in the area of animal genetic resources and climate change and can assist in the development of future actions within the research community.}, }
@article {pmid37402794, year = {2023}, author = {Tortajada, C and Arreguín, F}, title = {Preparedness for drought is more than a climate-change fix.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {619}, number = {7968}, pages = {34}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-02134-2}, pmid = {37402794}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Disaster Planning/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/methods/trends ; *Water Supply/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Water Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/methods/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid37400702, year = {2023}, author = {Bulut, U and Ongan, S and Dogru, T and Işık, C and Ahmad, M and Alvarado, R and Amin, A and Rehman, A}, title = {The nexus between government spending, economic growth, and tourism under climate change: testing the CEM model for the USA.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {36}, pages = {86138-86154}, pmid = {37400702}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Tourism ; *Economic Development ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; Internationality ; Government ; }, abstract = {This study examines the impact of government spending, income, and tourism consumption on CO2 emissions in the 50 US states through a novel theoretical model derived from the Armey Curve model and the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The findings of this research are essential for policymakers to develop effective strategies for mitigating environmental pollution. Utilizing panel cointegration analysis, the study provides valuable insights into whether continued increases in government spending contribute to higher pollution levels. By identifying the threshold point of spending as a percentage of GDP, policymakers can make informed decisions to avoid the trade-off between increased spending and environmental degradation. For instance, the analysis reveals that Hawaii's tipping point is 16.40%. The empirical results underscore the importance of adopting sustainable policies that foster economic growth while minimizing environmental harm. These findings will aid policymakers in formulating targeted and efficient approaches to tackle climate change and promote long-term environmental sustainability in the United States. Moreover, the impact of tourism development on CO2 emissions varies across states, with some US states experiencing a decrease while others see an increase.}, }
@article {pmid37400559, year = {2023}, author = {Piwowarczyk, R and Kolanowska, M}, title = {Effect of global warming on the potential distribution of a holoparasitic plant (Phelypaea tournefortii): both climate and host distribution matter.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {10741}, pmid = {37400559}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Orobanchaceae ; Geography ; }, abstract = {Phelypaea tournefortii (Orobanchaceae) primarily occurs in the Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and N Iran) and Turkey. This perennial, holoparasitic herb is achlorophyllous and possesses one of the most intense red flowers among all plants worldwide. It occurs as a parasite on the roots of several Tanacetum (Asteraceae) species and prefers steppe and semi-arid habitats. Climate change may affect holoparasites both directly through effects on their physiology and indirectly as a consequence of its effects on their host plants and habitats. In this study, we used the ecological niche modeling approach to estimate the possible effects of climate change on P. tournefortii and to evaluate the effect of its parasitic relationships with two preferred host species on the chances of survival of this species under global warming. We used four climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) and three different simulations (CNRM, GISS-E2, INM). We modeled the species' current and future distribution using the maximum entropy method implemented in MaxEnt using seven bioclimatic variables and species occurrence records (Phelypaea tournefortii - 63 records, Tanacetum argyrophyllum - 40, Tanacetum chiliophyllum - 21). According to our analyses, P. tournefortii will likely contract its geographical range remarkably. In response to global warming, the coverage of the species' suitable niches will decrease by at least 34%, especially in central and southern Armenia, Nakhchivan in Azerbaijan, northern Iran, and NE Turkey. In the worst-case scenario, the species will go completely extinct. Additionally, the studied plant's hosts will lose at least 36% of currently suitable niches boosting the range contraction of P. tournefortii. The GISS-E2 scenario will be least damaging, while the CNRM will be most damaging to climate change for studied species. Our study shows the importance of including ecological data in niche models to obtain more reliable predictions of the future distribution of parasitic plants.}, }
@article {pmid37399688, year = {2023}, author = {Li, J and Li, X and Liu, H and Gao, L and Wang, W and Wang, Z and Zhou, T and Wang, Q}, title = {Climate change impacts on wastewater infrastructure: A systematic review and typological adaptation strategy.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {242}, number = {}, pages = {120282}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.120282}, pmid = {37399688}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Humans ; *Wastewater ; *Climate Change ; Cities ; Sanitation ; }, abstract = {Wastewater infrastructures play an indispensable role in society's functioning, human production activities, and sanitation safety. However, climate change has posed a serious threat to wastewater infrastructures. To date, a comprehensive summary with rigorous evidence evaluation for the impact of climate change on wastewater infrastructure is lacking. We conducted a systematic review for scientific literature, grey literature, and news. In total, 61,649 documents were retrieved, and 96 of them were deemed relevant and subjected to detailed analysis. We developed a typological adaptation strategy for city-level decision-making for cities in all-income contexts to cope with climate change for wastewater structures. 84% and 60% of present studies focused on the higher-income countries and sewer systems, respectively. Overflow, breakage, and corrosion were the primary challenge for sewer systems, while inundation and fluctuation of treatment performance were the major issues for wastewater treatment plants. In order to adapt to the climate change impact, typological adaptation strategy was developed to provide a simple guideline to rapidly select the adaptation measures for vulnerable wastewater facilities for cities with various income levels. Future studies are encouraged to focus more on the model-related improvement/prediction, the impact of climate change on other wastewater facilities besides sewers, and countries with low or lower-middle incomes. This review provided insight to comprehensively understand the climate change impact on wastewater facilities and facilitate the policymaking in coping with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37399379, year = {2023}, author = {Tripathy, KP and Mukherjee, S and Mishra, AK and Mann, ME and Williams, AP}, title = {Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {28}, pages = {e2219825120}, pmid = {37399379}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {P30 ES013508/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, and ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, and severity) due to continued anthropogenic warming relative to the baseline recent observed period (1982 to 2019). We combine weekly drought and heatwave information for 26 climate divisions across the globe, employing historical and projected model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically significant trends are revealed in the CDHW characteristics for both recent observed and model simulated future period (2020 to 2099). East Africa, North Australia, East North America, Central Asia, Central Europe, and Southeastern South America show the greatest increase in frequency through the late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater projected increase in CDHW occurrence, while the Northern Hemisphere displays a greater increase in CDHW severity. Regional warmings play a significant role in CDHW changes in most regions. These findings have implications for minimizing the impacts of extreme events and developing adaptation and mitigation policies to cope with increased risk on water, energy, and food sectors in critical geographical regions.}, }
@article {pmid37396984, year = {2023}, author = {Blanchard, OA and Greenwald, LM and Sheffield, PE}, title = {The Climate Change Conversation: Understanding Nationwide Medical Education Efforts.}, journal = {The Yale journal of biology and medicine}, volume = {96}, number = {2}, pages = {171-184}, pmid = {37396984}, issn = {1551-4056}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Education, Medical ; Curriculum ; Health Education ; Faculty ; }, abstract = {Despite increasing awareness of the public and global health ramifications of climate change, there is a lack of curricula discussing climate change within medical education. Where greater societal awareness and improved scientific understanding have begun to grab the attention of members of the medical education community, there is the precedent, the desire, and the need to incorporate climate-health topics into medical education. We hosted semi-structured interviews (n=9) with faculty members at different institutions across the country who have been involved with climate change education. We pursued a qualitative approach to begin an inter-institutional conversation and better understand what support our colleagues and peers need to expand climate-health education, and we identified a set of key barriers to implementation: Obtaining Institutional Resources, Formalizing Initiative Leadership, and Empowering Faculty Involvement. We also began to appreciate the creative strategies that programs across the country have employed to tackle these challenges. Working with interested students to manage workload, advocating for funded faculty positions, and integrating curricular materials in multiple formats are just a few of the approaches that have helped climate-health initiatives to achieve longevity and penetration in the curriculum. A better identification of the challenges and drivers for success in curricular efforts can provide a roadmap to more efficient implementation of climate-health topics within medical education.}, }
@article {pmid37396976, year = {2023}, author = {Jee, SH and Friedman, E and Etzel, RA and Nguyen, VT and Sack, TL and Kemper, KJ}, title = {Climate Change Imperils Pediatric Health: Child Advocacy Through Fossil Fuel Divestment.}, journal = {The Yale journal of biology and medicine}, volume = {96}, number = {2}, pages = {233-239}, pmid = {37396976}, issn = {1551-4056}, mesh = {Female ; Pregnancy ; Child ; Humans ; *Greenhouse Gases ; *Air Pollution ; Child Advocacy ; Climate Change ; Fossil Fuels ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses an existential threat to children's health. Divestment of ownership stakes in fossil fuel companies is one tool available to pediatricians to address climate change. Pediatricians are trusted messengers regarding children's health and therefore bear a unique responsibility to advocate for climate and health policies that affect children. Among the impacts of climate change on pediatric patients are allergic rhinitis and asthma; heat-related illnesses; premature birth; injuries from severe storms and fires; vector-borne diseases; and mental illnesses. Children are disproportionately affected as well by climate-related displacement of populations, drought, water shortages, and famine. The human-generated burning of fossil fuels emits greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide, which trap heat in the atmosphere and cause global warming. The US healthcare industry is responsible for 8.5% of the nation's entire greenhouse gases and toxic air pollutants. In this perspectives piece we review the principle of divestment as a strategy for improving childhood health. Healthcare professionals can help combat climate change by embracing divestment in their personal investment portfolios and by their universities, healthcare systems, and professional organizations. We encourage this collaborative organizational effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid37396974, year = {2023}, author = {Gauthier, SJ}, title = {Changing Degrees: Incorporating the Impacts of Climate Change on Health into Pediatric Residency Education and Practice.}, journal = {The Yale journal of biology and medicine}, volume = {96}, number = {2}, pages = {227-232}, pmid = {37396974}, issn = {1551-4056}, mesh = {Humans ; Child ; United States ; *Internship and Residency ; Climate Change ; Education, Medical, Graduate ; Curriculum ; Educational Status ; }, abstract = {The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) was the first major medical society to release a policy statement on the impacts of climate change on pediatric health. It is estimated that globally, children bear the burden of climate-induced disease. However, many undergraduate and graduate medical curricula do not cover this topic. This article builds on previous literature to propose a framework for such a curriculum as well as justify its relevance in light of current accreditation requirements. Some curricular topics include extreme heat and heat-related injury, degradations in air quality and pediatric respiratory disease, spread of vector-borne and diarrheal illness, and mental health effects. Lastly, it addresses clinical applications for this knowledge, including screening vulnerable patients, offering anticipatory guidance, and advocating for the medical benefits of planetary health.}, }
@article {pmid37396973, year = {2023}, author = {Cianconi, P and Hanife, B and Grillo, F and Betro', S and Lesmana, CBJ and Janiri, L}, title = {Eco-emotions and Psychoterratic Syndromes: Reshaping Mental Health Assessment Under Climate Change.}, journal = {The Yale journal of biology and medicine}, volume = {96}, number = {2}, pages = {211-226}, pmid = {37396973}, issn = {1551-4056}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Mental Health ; Syndrome ; Emotions ; }, abstract = {Human activities like greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, and deforestation are largely responsible for climate change and biodiversity loss. The climate is a complex system and scientists are striving to predict, prevent, and address the aforementioned issues in order to avoid reaching tipping points. The threat to humankind is not only physical (ie, heat waves, floods, droughts) but also psychological, especially for some groups. Insecurity, danger, chaos, and an unstable system due to climate change have both short- and long-term psychological effects. In this scenario, the need for new psychological categories is emerging, namely, eco-emotions and psychoterratic syndromes which include eco-anxiety, ecological grief, climate worry, and climate trauma. This paper focuses on these new categories, presenting a summary of each one, including definitions, hypotheses, questions, and testological evaluations, as a useful tool to be consulted by researchers and clinicians and to help them in the therapeutic work. Also, this paper endeavors to distinguish between a psychological stress resulting in a positive outcome, such as pro-environmental behavior, compared to a stress that leads to a psychopathology. Prevention and intervention strategies including social and community support are fundamental to help cope with and mitigate the effect of climate change on mental health. In conclusion, the climate crisis has led to an enormous increase in research on climate change and its consequences on mental health. Researchers and clinicians must be prepared to assess this complex phenomenon and provide help to those who cannot cope with anxiety and climatic mourning.}, }
@article {pmid37396368, year = {2023}, author = {Mazière, C and Duran, R and Dupuy, C and Cravo-Laureau, C}, title = {Microbial mats as model to decipher climate change effect on microbial communities through a mesocosm study.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1039658}, pmid = {37396368}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Marine environments are expected to be one of the most affected ecosystems by climate change, notably with increasing ocean temperature and ocean acidification. In marine environments, microbial communities provide important ecosystem services ensuring biogeochemical cycles. They are threatened by the modification of environmental parameters induced by climate change that, in turn, affect their activities. Microbial mats, ensuring important ecosystem services in coastal areas, are well-organized communities of diverse microorganisms representing accurate microbial models. It is hypothesized that their microbial diversity and metabolic versatility will reveal various adaptation strategies in response to climate change. Thus, understanding how climate change affects microbial mats will provide valuable information on microbial behaviour and functioning in changed environment. Experimental ecology, based on mesocosm approaches, provides the opportunity to control physical-chemical parameters, as close as possible to those observed in the environment. The exposure of microbial mats to physical-chemical conditions mimicking the climate change predictions will help to decipher the modification of the microbial community structure and function in response to it. Here, we present how to expose microbial mats, following a mesocosm approach, to study the impact of climate change on microbial community.}, }
@article {pmid37393375, year = {2023}, author = {Jackson, RJ}, title = {Learning is good, but not enough: Comment on the article "Child-focused climate change and health content in medical schools and residencies." Goshua A, Gomez J, Erny B, Gisondi M, Patel L, Sampath V, Sheffield P, Nadeau K.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37393375}, issn = {1530-0447}, }
@article {pmid37393063, year = {2023}, author = {Prudic, KL and Zylstra, ER and Melkonoff, NA and Laura, RE and Hutchinson, RA}, title = {Community scientists produce open data for understanding insects and climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {59}, number = {}, pages = {101081}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2023.101081}, pmid = {37393063}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Insecta/physiology ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Insect species are responding to human-caused global changes, sparking an urgent need for more conservation and management. Recent publications indicate the speed and scale of these changes to be both fast and large, impacting ecosystem function and human health. Community scientists are contributing vast amounts of data on insect occurrence and abundance to publicly available biodiversity platforms. These data are then used by ecologists to estimate insect diversity and distributions and forecast species' responses to the stressors of the Anthropocene. Yet, challenges remain with taxonomy, species identification, and sampling, some of which can be improved by new tools and approaches. Here we review the open, global community science programs providing the majority of publicly available insect data. We explore the advantages, challenges, and next steps with these large-scale community science ventures, emphasizing the importance of collaboration between professionals and community scientists to jointly address the conservation of insects.}, }
@article {pmid37392817, year = {2023}, author = {Jacobs, JW and Booth, GS and Stephens, LD and Woo, JS and Adkins, BD}, title = {Considering the impact of climate change and viral hemorrhagic fevers on the safety of the blood supply.}, journal = {Transfusion clinique et biologique : journal de la Societe francaise de transfusion sanguine}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {454-455}, doi = {10.1016/j.tracli.2023.06.006}, pmid = {37392817}, issn = {1953-8022}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Hemorrhagic Fevers, Viral/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid37392416, year = {2023}, author = {Zuelsdorff, M and Limaye, VS}, title = {A Framework For Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Dementia Risk and Burden.}, journal = {The Gerontologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/geront/gnad082}, pmid = {37392416}, issn = {1758-5341}, support = {R03 AG063303/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) represent a public health crisis poised to worsen in a changing climate. Substantial dementia burden is modifiable, attributable to risk rooted in social and environmental conditions. Climate change threatens older populations in numerous ways, but implications for cognitive aging are poorly understood. We illuminate key mechanisms by which climate change will shape incidence and lived experiences of ADRD, and propose a framework for strengthening research, clinical, and policy actions around cognitive health in the context of climate change. Direct impacts and indirect risk pathways operating through built, social, interpersonal, and biomedical systems are highlighted. Air pollution compromises brain health directly and via systemic cardiovascular and respiratory ailments. Flooding and extreme temperatures constrain health behaviors like physical activity and sleep. Medical care resulting from climate-related health shocks imposes economic and emotional tolls on people living with dementia and caregivers. Throughout, inequitable distributions of climate-exacerbated risks and adaptive resources compound existing disparities in ADRD incidence, comorbidities, and care burden. Translational research, including work prioritizing underserved communities, is crucial. A mechanistic framework can guide research questions and methods and identify clinical- and policy-level intervention loci for prevention and mitigation of climate-related impacts on ADRD risk and burden.}, }
@article {pmid37392001, year = {2023}, author = {Aguirre-Liguori, JA and Morales-Cruz, A and Gaut, BS and Ramírez-Barahona, S}, title = {Sampling effect in predicting the evolutionary response of populations to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology resources}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/1755-0998.13828}, pmid = {37392001}, issn = {1755-0998}, support = {FORDECYT-PRONACES/263962/2020//Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog&#xed;a/ ; }, abstract = {Genomic data and machine learning approaches have gained interest due to their potential to identify adaptive genetic variation across populations and to assess species vulnerability to climate change. By identifying gene-environment associations for putatively adaptive loci, these approaches project changes to adaptive genetic composition as a function of future climate change (genetic offsets), which are interpreted as measuring the future maladaptation of populations due to climate change. In principle, higher genetic offsets relate to increased population vulnerability and therefore can be used to set priorities for conservation and management. However, it is not clear how sensitive these metrics are to the intensity of population and individual sampling. Here, we use five genomic datasets with varying numbers of SNPs (NSNPs = 7006-1,398,773), sampled populations (Npop = 23-47) and individuals (Nind = 185-595) to evaluate the estimation sensitivity of genetic offsets to varying degrees of sampling intensity. We found that genetic offsets are sensitive to the number of populations being sampled, especially with less than 10 populations and when genetic structure is high. We also found that the number of individuals sampled per population had small effects on the estimation of genetic offsets, with more robust results when five or more individuals are sampled. Finally, uncertainty associated with the use of different future climate scenarios slightly increased estimation uncertainty in the genetic offsets. Our results suggest that sampling efforts should focus on increasing the number of populations, rather than the number of individuals per populations, and that multiple future climate scenarios should be evaluated to ascertain estimation sensitivity.}, }
@article {pmid37390306, year = {2023}, author = {Jones-Schenk, J}, title = {Population Health and Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of continuing education in nursing}, volume = {54}, number = {7}, pages = {297-298}, doi = {10.3928/00220124-20230615-02}, pmid = {37390306}, issn = {1938-2472}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Population Health ; }, abstract = {A call to action by the oldest nursing organization in the United States should not be ignored. In 2022, the National League for Nursing published a strategic vision statement on climate change noting that unquestionably climate change will be one of the greatest public health and health equity issues of our time because of the immense health impacts. As our health systems increasingly point their care efforts toward population health, climate change and its implications cannot be overstated. Nurses in all roles are essential to addressing the health impacts of climate change. [J Contin Educ Nurs. 2023;54(7):297-298.].}, }
@article {pmid37389098, year = {2023}, author = {Pawankar, R and Thong, BY and Recto, MT and Wang, JY and Abdul Latiff, AH and Leung, TF and Li, PH and Lobo, RCM and Lucas, M and Oh, JW and Kamchaisatian, W and Nagao, M and Rengganis, I and Udwadia, ZF and Dhar, R and Munkhbayarlakh, S and Narantsetseg, L and Pham, DL and Zhang, Y and Zhang, L}, title = {COVID-19 in the Asia Pacific: Impact on climate change, allergic diseases and One Health.}, journal = {Asia Pacific allergy}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {44-49}, pmid = {37389098}, issn = {2233-8276}, abstract = {Climate change and environmental factors such as air pollution and loss of biodiversity are known to have a major impact not only on allergic diseases but also on many noncommunicable diseases. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) resulted in many environmental changes during the different phases of the pandemic. The use of face masks, enhanced hand hygiene with hand rubs and sanitizers, use of personal protective equipment (gowns and gloves), and safe-distancing measures, reduced the overall incidence of respiratory infections and other communicable diseases. Lockdowns and border closures resulted in a significant reduction in vehicular traffic and hence environmental air pollution. Paradoxically, the use of personal protective equipment and disposables contributed to an increase in environmental waste disposal and new problems such as occupational dermatoses, especially among healthcare workers. Environmental changes and climate change over time may impact the exposome, genome, and microbiome, with the potential for short- and long-term effects on the incidence and prevalence of the allergic disease. The constant use and access to mobile digital devices and technology disrupt work-life harmony and mental well-being. The complex interactions between the environment, genetics, immune, and neuroendocrine systems may have short- and long-term impact on the risk and development of allergic and immunologic diseases in the future.}, }
@article {pmid37388813, year = {2023}, author = {Pawankar, R and Wang, JY}, title = {APAAACI Allergy Week on Climate change, One Health and digital health.}, journal = {Asia Pacific allergy}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {57-59}, pmid = {37388813}, issn = {2233-8276}, }
@article {pmid37388316, year = {2023}, author = {Lévêque, L and Amin, RJ and Buettel, J and Carver, S and Brook, B}, title = {A secure future? Human urban and agricultural land use benefits a flightless island-endemic rail despite climate change.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {230386}, pmid = {37388316}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Identifying environmental characteristics that limit species' distributions is important for contemporary conservation and inferring responses to future environmental change. The Tasmanian native hen is an island endemic flightless rail and a survivor of a prehistoric extirpation event. Little is known about the regional-scale environmental characteristics influencing the distribution of native hens, or how their future distribution might be impacted by environmental shifts (e.g. climate change). Using a combination of local fieldwork and species distribution modelling, we assess environmental factors shaping the contemporary distribution of the native hen, and project future distribution changes under predicted climate change. We find 37% of Tasmania is currently suitable for the native hens, owing to low summer precipitation, low elevation, human-modified vegetation and urban areas. Moreover, in unsuitable regions, urban areas can create 'oases' of habitat, able to support populations with high breeding activity by providing resources and buffering against environmental constraints. Under climate change predictions, native hens were predicted to lose only 5% of their occupied range by 2055. We conclude that the species is resilient to climate change and benefits overall from anthropogenic landscape modifications. As such, this constitutes a rare example of a flightless rail to have adapted to human activity.}, }
@article {pmid37386870, year = {2023}, author = {Piao, S and Wang, X}, title = {Biological systems under climate change: What do we learn from the IPCC AR6.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {18}, pages = {5120-5121}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16857}, pmid = {37386870}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {41988101//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, }
@article {pmid37385719, year = {2023}, author = {Müller, F and Skok, JI and Arnetz, JE and Bouthillier, MJ and Holman, HT}, title = {Primary Care Clinicians' Attitude, Knowledge, and Willingness to Address Climate Change in Shared Decision-Making.}, journal = {Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine : JABFM}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3122/jabfm.2023.230027R1}, pmid = {37385719}, issn = {1558-7118}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses a threat to the health of people worldwide. Little is known about the awareness of primary care clinicians toward climate change and if they are open and prepared to address climate change issues with their patients. As pharmaceuticals are the main source of carbon emissions in primary care, avoiding the prescription of particular climate-harmful medications is a meaningful contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gases.<br><br>METHODS: This is a cross-sectional questionnaire survey among primary care clinicians in West Michigan conducted in November 2022.<br><br>RESULTS: One hundred three primary care clinicians responded (response rate 22.5%). Nearly 1/3 (29.1%) were classified as climate change unaware clinicians who perceived that global warming is not happening, or expressed that it is happening but not caused by human activities or is affecting the weather. In a theoretical scenario on a prescription of a new drug, clinicians tended to prescribe the less harmful drug without discussing options with patients. Although 75.5% of clinicians agreed that climate change aspects have its place in shared decision-making, 76.6% of clinicians expressed a lack of knowledge to advise patients in this regard. In addition, 60.3% of clinicians feared that raising climate change issues in consultations may adversely affect the relationship with the patient.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Although many primary care clinicians are open to addressing climate change in their working environment and with their patients, they lack knowledge and confidence to do so. In contrast, the majority of the US population is willing to do more to mitigate climate change. Although curricula on climate change topics are increasingly implemented in student education, programs to educate mid- and late-career clinicians are lacking.}, }
@article {pmid37383465, year = {2023}, author = {Olmos, M and Patel, J and Kanter, M and Karimi, H and Kryzanski, J}, title = {Evaluating the potential impact of spinal anesthesia use in lumbar surgery on global healthcare cost and climate change.}, journal = {Brain &amp; spine}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {101754}, pmid = {37383465}, issn = {2772-5294}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Despite recent evidence demonstrating its safety and efficacy, spinal anesthesia remains a seldom-utilized anesthetic modality in lumbar surgical procedures. In addition, numerous clinical advantages, such as reduced cost, blood loss, operative time, and inpatient length of stay have been consistently demonstrated with spinal anesthesia over general anesthesia.<br><br>RESEARCH QUESTION: In this report we aim to examine the differences between spinal anesthesia and general anesthesia with regard to accessibility and climate impact and determine whether wider adoption of spinal anesthesia would have a meaningful impact on the global population. Materials and Methods: The climate impact of spinal fusions performed under spinal and general anesthesia were obtained from recent studies published in the literature. Cost of spinal fusions was obtained from an unpublished study performed at our institution. Volume of spinal fusions performed in several countries were ascertained from published reports. Data on cost and carbon emissions were extrapolated based on volume of spinal fusions in each of the nations.<br><br>RESULTS: In the U.S., use of spinal anesthesia for lumbar fusions would have resulted in savings of 343 million dollars in 2015. A similar reduction in cost was seen with each country studied. Additionally, spinal anesthesia was associated with 12,352&#xa0;&#x200b;kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) while general anesthesia produced 942,872&#xa0;&#x200b;kg CO2e. Similar reduction in carbon emissions was seen with each country studied.<br><br>DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Spinal anesthesia is safe and effective for both simple and complex spine surgeries, it reduces carbon emissions, permits lower operative times, and decreases cost.}, }
@article {pmid37383340, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Adawy, ME and Sidib, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {100098}, pmid = {37383340}, issn = {2772-3682}, }
@article {pmid37381110, year = {2023}, author = {Grunst, ML and Grunst, AS and Grémillet, D and Fort, J}, title = {Combined threats of climate change and contaminant exposure through the lens of bioenergetics.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {18}, pages = {5139-5168}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16822}, pmid = {37381110}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {ANR-16-CE34-0005//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; ANR-20-CE34-0006//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; //French Polar Institute (IPEV)/ ; 101025549//H2020 Marie Sk&#x142;odowska-Curie Actions/ ; 896866//H2020 Marie Sk&#x142;odowska-Curie Actions/ ; }, abstract = {Organisms face energetic challenges of climate change in combination with suites of natural and anthropogenic stressors. In particular, chemical contaminant exposure has neurotoxic, endocrine-disrupting, and behavioral effects which may additively or interactively combine with challenges associated with climate change. We used a literature review across animal taxa and contaminant classes, but focused on Arctic endotherms and contaminants important in Arctic ecosystems, to demonstrate potential for interactive effects across five bioenergetic domains: (1) energy supply, (2) energy demand, (3) energy storage, (4) energy allocation tradeoffs, and (5) energy management strategies; and involving four climate change-sensitive environmental stressors: changes in resource availability, temperature, predation risk, and parasitism. Identified examples included relatively equal numbers of synergistic and antagonistic interactions. Synergies are often suggested to be particularly problematic, since they magnify biological effects. However, we emphasize that antagonistic effects on bioenergetic traits can be equally problematic, since they can reflect dampening of beneficial responses and result in negative synergistic effects on fitness. Our review also highlights that empirical demonstrations remain limited, especially in endotherms. Elucidating the nature of climate change-by-contaminant interactive effects on bioenergetic traits will build toward determining overall outcomes for energy balance and fitness. Progressing to determine critical species, life stages, and target areas in which transformative effects arise will aid in forecasting broad-scale bioenergetic outcomes under global change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid37380836, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Global warming intensifies rainfall in mountainous regions.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37380836}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37380684, year = {2023}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Start-ups are adding antacids to the ocean to slow global warming. Will it work?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {618}, number = {7967}, pages = {902-904}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-02032-7}, pmid = {37380684}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; *Oceans and Seas ; *Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Seawater/chemistry ; *Environmental Restoration and Remediation/methods ; }, }
@article {pmid37379518, year = {2023}, author = {Carlson, B and Kohon, JN and Carder, PC and Himes, D and Toda, E and Tanaka, K}, title = {Climate Change Policies and Older Adults: An Analysis of States' Climate Adaptation Plans.}, journal = {The Gerontologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/geront/gnad077}, pmid = {37379518}, issn = {1758-5341}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: As climate change drives more frequent and intense weather events, older adults face disproportionate impacts, including having the highest mortality rates from storms, wildfires, flooding, and heat waves. State governments are critical in deploying local resources to help address climate change impacts. This policy study analyzes states' climate adaptation plans to assess the methods through which they address the impact of climate change on older adults.<br><br>RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This study uses content analysis to analyze available climate change adaptation plans for all U.S. states for strategies designed to increase resilience of older adults to impacts of climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: Nineteen states have climate adaptation plans, of which 18 describe older adults as a population group with specific health impacts and risks factors. Four categories of adaptation strategies for older adults include communications, transportation, housing, and emergency services. State plans vary in terms of the risk factors and adaptation strategies included.<br><br>DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: To varying degrees, states' climate change adaptation planning address health, social and economic risks specific to older adults, as well as strategies for mitigating those risks. As global warming continues, collaborations between public and private sectors and across regions will be needed to prevent negative outcomes such as forced relocation and other social and economic disruptions as well as disparate morbidity and mortality.}, }
@article {pmid37379295, year = {2023}, author = {Tilahun, ZA and Bizuneh, YK and Mekonnen, AG}, title = {The impacts of climate change on hydrological processes of Gilgel Gibe catchment, southwest Ethiopia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {6}, pages = {e0287314}, pmid = {37379295}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ethiopia ; *Agriculture ; Forecasting ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a significant driver of water resource availability, affecting the magnitude of surface runoff, aquifer recharge, and river flows. This study investigated the impact of climate change on hydrological processes within the Gilgel Gibe catchment and aimed to determine the level of exposure of water resources to these changes, which is essential for future adaptability planning. To achieve this objective, an ensemble mean of six regional climate models (RCMs) from the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa was used to simulate future climatic scenarios. The RCMs outputs were then bias corrected using distribution mapping to match observed precipitation and temperature. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change on the catchment. The results indicated that the ensemble mean of the six RCMs projects a decline in precipitation and an increase in temperature under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 representative concentration pathways. Moreover, the increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures are higher for higher emission scenarios, indicating that RCP8.5 is warmer than RCP4.5. The projected climate change shows a decrease in surface runoff, groundwater, and water yield, resulting in an overall decline of annual flow. This decline is mainly due to the reduction in seasonal flows driven by climate change scenarios. The changes in precipitation range from -11.2% to -14.3% under RCP4.5 and from -9.2% to -10.0% under RCP8.5, while the changes in temperature range from 1.7°C to 2.5°C under RCP4.5 and from 1.8°C to 3.6°C under RCP8.5. These changes could lead to reduced water availability for crop production, which could be a chronic issue for subsistence agriculture. Additionally, the reduction of surface water and groundwater could further exacerbate water stress in the downstream areas, affecting the availability of water resources in the catchment. Furthermore, the increasing demands for water, driven by population growth and socioeconomic progress, along with the variability in temperature and evaporation demands, will amplify prolonged water scarcity. Therefore, robust climate-resilient water management policies are indispensable to manage these risks. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of considering the impact of climate change on hydrological processes and the need for proactive adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources.}, }
@article {pmid37378882, year = {2023}, author = {Kent, BD}, title = {Climate change, the environment and respiratory disease.}, journal = {Breathe (Sheffield, England)}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {230102}, pmid = {37378882}, issn = {1810-6838}, abstract = {Respiratory clinicians are no strangers to the concept of both occupational and recreational exposures affecting the lung, but evolving factors like climate change and air quality can also play a critical role in respiratory health. https://bit.ly/42XFCUA.}, }
@article {pmid37377800, year = {2023}, author = {Monteoliva, MI and Ruiz, OA and Li, F}, title = {Editorial: Legumes and their microbiome in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1220535}, pmid = {37377800}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid37377791, year = {2023}, author = {Bonannella, C and Hengl, T and Parente, L and de Bruin, S}, title = {Biomes of the world under climate change scenarios: increasing aridity and higher temperatures lead to significant shifts in natural vegetation.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e15593}, pmid = {37377791}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Temperature ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Logistic Models ; Arctic Regions ; }, abstract = {The global potential distribution of biomes (natural vegetation) was modelled using 8,959 training points from the BIOME 6000 dataset and a stack of 72 environmental covariates representing terrain and the current climatic conditions based on historical long term averages (1979-2013). An ensemble machine learning model based on stacked regularization was used, with multinomial logistic regression as the meta-learner and spatial blocking (100 km) to deal with spatial autocorrelation of the training points. Results of spatial cross-validation for the BIOME 6000 classes show an overall accuracy of 0.67 and R[2]logloss of 0.61, with "tropical evergreen broadleaf forest" being the class with highest gain in predictive performances (R[2]logloss = 0.74) and "prostrate dwarf shrub tundra" the class with the lowest (R[2]logloss = -0.09) compared to the baseline. Temperature-related covariates were the most important predictors, with the mean diurnal range (BIO2) being shared by all the base-learners (i.e.,random forest, gradient boosted trees and generalized linear models). The model was next used to predict the distribution of future biomes for the periods 2040-2060 and 2061-2080 under three climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). Comparisons of predictions for the three epochs (present, 2040-2060 and 2061-2080) show that increasing aridity and higher temperatures will likely result in significant shifts in natural vegetation in the tropical area (shifts from tropical forests to savannas up to 1.7 ×10[5] km[2] by 2080) and around the Arctic Circle (shifts from tundra to boreal forests up to 2.4 ×10[5] km[2] by 2080). Projected global maps at 1 km spatial resolution are provided as probability and hard classes maps for BIOME 6000 classes and as hard classes maps for the IUCN classes (six aggregated classes). Uncertainty maps (prediction error) are also provided and should be used for careful interpretation of the future projections.}, }
@article {pmid37377577, year = {2023}, author = {Jonas, F and Hagen, A and Ackermann, BW and Knüpfer, M}, title = {Students experience the effects of climate change on children's health in role play and develop strategies for medical work - an interactive seminar.}, journal = {GMS journal for medical education}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {Doc29}, pmid = {37377577}, issn = {2366-5017}, mesh = {Humans ; Child ; Child Health ; Climate Change ; Curriculum ; *Education, Medical ; *Students, Medical ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This project report describes the development and evaluation of an interactive seminar on the topic "medical effects of climate change on children's health".<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The learning objectives are learning the basics and the direct and indirect connections between climate change and children's health. Future scenarios for affected children, parents and doctors are developed interactively. Subsequently, communication strategies concerning climate change are discussed so that students identify and analyze possibilities to become active.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: The seminar was offered as an obligatory seminar for a total of 128 third-year medical students with one appointment of 45 minutes per course group as part of the interdisciplinary seminar series "Environmental Medicine". A course group consisted of 14 to 18 students. The seminar for the 2020 summer semester was developed as part of the interdisciplinary field of environmental medicine with the special feature of an interactive role play. The role play intends to give the students the opportunity to put themselves in the situation of affected children, parents and doctors of the future in order to develop detailed solution strategies. From 2020 to 2021, the seminar took place as online self-study due to the lockdown requirements. Since winter semester 2021/22, the seminar was held as an attendance event for the first time, although the switch to an online presence seminar with obligatory attendance had to take place after four seminar dates due to renewed lockdown requirements, which also took place four times. The evaluated results here refer to a total of eight dates in the winter semester 2021/22 and were carried out using a specially developed questionnaire, which was filled out voluntarily and anonymously by the students immediately after the respective seminar date. An overall grade as well as the appropriateness of the time and content of lectures and role play were asked for. Free text answers were possible for each question.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 83 questionnaires were evaluated, 54 of which were from the four seminars in attendance, 15 were from the four online presence seminars that took place as an online live stream. The evaluation of the seminar resulted in an average grade of 1.7 for the face-to-face seminars and 1.9 for the online seminars. Content-related comments in the free-text answers addressed the desire for concrete solution strategies, more time for discussions and a more in-depth study of the topic. Numerous positive responses described the seminar as "very exciting", "good food for thought", "interesting and important topic".<br><br>CONCLUSION: There is a very high interest on the topic of "climate change &amp; health" among students There is an obvious need to integrate the topic on a larger scale into medical education. Ideally, the focus on children's health should be an integral part of the pediatric curriculum.}, }
@article {pmid37377575, year = {2023}, author = {Gundacker, C and Himmelbauer, M}, title = {The impact of climate change on the medical profession - a newly implemented course on medical ecology.}, journal = {GMS journal for medical education}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {Doc30}, pmid = {37377575}, issn = {2366-5017}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Learning ; *Medicine ; Students ; *Students, Medical ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The consequences of climate change on health care systems as well as the individual involvement in climate change has not been a focus of the study of human medicine. Therefore, the lecture and practical course medical ecology have been reorganized to reflect the increasing importance of this topic. In order to be available to all students, this course was included in the core curriculum of the first year of study in human medicine.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: The teaching concept is based on the method "multidimensional learning". The theoretical examination of environmental changes, especially climate change, is placed at the starting point within the framework of a lecture, followed by the translation of theoretical principles into practical knowledge by calculating the ecological footprint and subsequent reflection on the newly learned content. The project was evaluated by means of a self-constructed course evaluation instrument (three feedback questions) and an internal university online tool.<br><br>RESULTS: 656 students (100%) described the most important knowledge they gained in the course. One third of the students (N=218) indicate that they would like to participate in a more advanced seminar. 137 students comment on specific aspects. Overall, students express great interest in the topic of medical ecology. They reflect in a remarkably (self-)critical way on the individual contribution to climate change and can clearly name the health consequences of climate change. The contents should be expanded in a more in-depth seminar.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The concept of the course has proven to be purposeful in order to prepare relevant and complex contents of medical ecology in an understandable way. Both lecture and practical course should be further developed accordingly.}, }
@article {pmid37377571, year = {2023}, author = {Rybol, L and Nieder, J and Amelung, D and Hachad, H and Sauerborn, R and Depoux, A and Herrmann, A}, title = {Integrating climate change and health topics into the medical curriculum - a quantitative needs assessment of medical students at Heidelberg University in Germany.}, journal = {GMS journal for medical education}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {Doc36}, pmid = {37377571}, issn = {2366-5017}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; Male ; *Students, Medical ; Needs Assessment ; Climate Change ; Universities ; Curriculum ; Germany ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Climate change (CC) is of major importance for physicians as they are directly confronted with changing disease patterns, work in a greenhouse gas intensive sector and can be potential advocates for healthy people on a healthy planet.<br><br>METHODS: We assessed third to fifth year medical students' needs to support the integration of CC topics into medical curricula. A questionnaire with 54 single choice-based items was newly designed with the following sections: role perception, knowledge test, learning needs, preference of educational strategies and demographic characteristics. It was administered online to students at Heidelberg medical faculty. Data sets were used for descriptive statistics and regression modelling.<br><br>RESULTS: 72.4% of students (N=170, 56.2% female, 76% aged 20-24 years) (strongly) agreed that physicians carry a responsibility to address CC in their work setting while only 4.7% (strongly) agreed that their current medical training had given them enough skills to do so. Knowledge was high in the area of CC, health impacts of CC, vulnerabilities and adaptation (70.1% correct answers). Knowledge gaps were greatest for health co-benefits and climate-friendly healthcare (55.5% and 16.7% of correct answers, respectively). 79.4% wanted to see CC and health included in the medical curriculum with a preference for integration into existing mandatory courses. A multilinear regression model with factors age, gender, semester, aspired work setting, political leaning, role perception and knowledge explained 45.9% of variance for learning needs.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The presented results encourage the integration of CC and health topics including health co-benefits and climate-friendly healthcare, as well as respective professional role development into existing mandatory courses of the medical curriculum.}, }
@article {pmid37377570, year = {2023}, author = {Lemke, D and Holtz, S and Gerber, M and Amberger, O and Schütze, D and Müller, B and Wunder, A and Fast, M}, title = {From niche topic to inclusion in the curriculum - design and evaluation of the elective course "climate change and health".}, journal = {GMS journal for medical education}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {Doc31}, pmid = {37377570}, issn = {2366-5017}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Students ; *Physicians ; Faculty, Medical ; *Students, Medical ; *Education, Medical, Undergraduate/methods ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: At the Medical Faculty of the Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, the elective course "climate change and health" was offered to students in the clinical phase of their medical studies for the first time in the winter semester 2021/22 (any unfilled places were made available to interested students studying other subjects). Despite attracting considerable attention, this topic has not yet been incorporated into the curriculum of medical studies. Our aim was therefore to teach students about climate change and discuss its effects on human health. The students evaluated the elective in terms of various factors relating to knowledge, attitudes and behavior.<br><br>PROJECT DESCRIPTION: The elective focused on the concept of Planetary Health, with an emphasis on the health consequences of climate change, as well as possibilities for action and adaptation in clinical and practical settings. The course took place in three live, online sessions (with inputs, discussion, case studies and work in small groups), as well as online preparation and a final written assignment for which students were asked to reflect on the subject. The standardized teaching evaluation questionnaire (=didactic dimension) of Goethe University was used online to evaluate the elective, whereby the questionnaire was extended to include the measurement of changes in students' agreement with items (dimensions) relating to knowledge, attitudes and behavior (personal behavior and behavior as physicians) before and after the course (pre/post comparison).<br><br>RESULTS: Students expressed high levels of satisfaction with the course content, the presentation of the course, and the organization of the elective. This was reflected in very good to good overall ratings. The pre/post comparisons further showed a significant, positive shift in agreement ratings in almost all dimensions. The majority of respondents also wanted the topic to be firmly embedded in the medical curriculum.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The evaluation shows that with respect to the impact of climate change on human health, the elective course had a clear influence on the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors of the students. In view of the relevance of the topic, it is therefore important that this subject is included in medical curricula in the future.}, }
@article {pmid37377569, year = {2023}, author = {Boekels, R and Nikendei, C and Roether, E and Friederich, HC and Bugaj, TJ}, title = {Climate change and health in international medical education - a narrative review.}, journal = {GMS journal for medical education}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {Doc37}, pmid = {37377569}, issn = {2366-5017}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Education, Medical ; Curriculum ; Learning ; Motivation ; *Students, Medical ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Climate change is a key threat to human health worldwide. Accordingly, medical education should prepare future physicians for climate-associated hazards and corresponding professional challenges. Currently, this is not yet implemented across the board. The aim of this review is to present (I) the knowledge and (II) the attitudes of medical students and physicians towards climate change and (III) the expectations of medical education as formulated by medical students. In addition, the available literature will be used to look at (IV) global teaching activities, (V) international learning goals and learning goal catalogues, and (VI) applied teaching methods and formats. This review should simplify and, considering the urgency of the topic, accelerate the design of future teaching activities.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: The paper is based on a selective literature search supplemented by a topic-guided internet search.<br><br>RESULTS: Knowledge about the causes and concrete health consequences of climate change seems to be incomplete. The majority of medical students consider human health to be at risk from climate change and the health sector to be inadequately prepared. A majority of surveyed medical students would like to see teaching about climate change. It is evident that internationally, teaching projects on climate change and climate health, as well as topic-specific learning objectives and learning goal catalogues, have been developed and integrated into medical education.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There is a need for and acceptance of teaching climate change in the medical curriculum. This literature review can assist in the development and implementation of new teaching formats.}, }
@article {pmid37377568, year = {2023}, author = {Müller, L and Kühl, M and Kühl, SJ}, title = {Climate change and health: Changes in student environmental knowledge and awareness due to the implementation of a mandatory elective at the Medical Faculty of Ulm?.}, journal = {GMS journal for medical education}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {Doc32}, pmid = {37377568}, issn = {2366-5017}, mesh = {Humans ; Faculty, Medical ; Climate Change ; Students ; *Education, Medical ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Students, Medical ; Curriculum ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: According to the World Health Organization, climate change constitutes the single greatest threat to human health. However, the health care system contributes to climate change worldwide through its high CO2 emissions. In order to make future physicians more aware of this issue and to expand medical education to include climate-related aspects, the mandatory 28 academic hours elective "Climate Change and Health" for students of human medicine in the preclinical study stage was implemented at the Medical Faculty of Ulm in the 2020/21 winter semester. Our accompanying study investigated 1. in what form the topic of climate change can be successfully integrated into the study of human medicine in a manner that includes student opinions and2. whether being required to take an elective on the topic led to changes in student environmental knowledge and awareness.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: Personal individual interviews were conducted with all n=11 students after the course in a pilot that was carried out in the 2020/21 winter semester to determine course feasibility and student acceptance. The students were also able to evaluate the course using an evaluation form and were asked to complete a questionnaire on their environmental knowledge and awareness before and after the course. The course was revised on the basis of the results and offered again in the 2021 summer semester with an intervention group (n=16, participation in the mandatory elective) and a comparison group (n=25, no participation in the mandatory elective). The intervention group was asked to evaluate the course on the evaluation form. Both groups completed the environmental questionnaire at the same time.<br><br>RESULTS: The positive feedback from students for both semesters indicates a good feasibility and acceptance of the course. Student environmental knowledge was increased in both semesters. However, there were only few observable changes in student environmental awareness.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This paper illustrates how the topic of climate change and health can be embedded into medical studies. The students considered climate change an important topic and drew added value from the course for their future work in healthcare. The study shows that knowledge transfer at the university level is an effective way to educate the young generation on climate change and its impacts.}, }
@article {pmid37377234, year = {2023}, author = {Cabezas, C}, title = {Climate change and health: atipasunchu allín kausayta? Can we have health and well-being?.}, journal = {Revista peruana de medicina experimental y salud publica}, volume = {40}, number = {1}, pages = {4-6}, doi = {10.17843/rpmesp.2023.401.12333}, pmid = {37377234}, issn = {1726-4642}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Health Status ; }, }
@article {pmid37377020, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, W and Lu, X and Yuan, D and Chen, Y and Li, Z and Huang, Y and Fung, T and Sun, H and Fung, JCH}, title = {Global PM2.5 Prediction and Associated Mortality to 2100 under Different Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {57}, number = {27}, pages = {10039-10052}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.3c03804}, pmid = {37377020}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Atmosphere/analysis ; Mortality, Premature ; }, abstract = {Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has severe adverse health impacts, making it crucial to reduce PM2.5 exposure for public health. Meteorological and emissions factors, which considerably affect the PM2.5 concentrations in the atmosphere, vary substantially under different climate change scenarios. In this work, global PM2.5 concentrations from 2021 to 2100 were generated by combining the deep learning technique, reanalysis data, emission data, and bias-corrected CMIP6 future climate scenario data. Based on the estimated PM2.5 concentrations, the future premature mortality burden was assessed using the Global Exposure Mortality Model. Our results reveal that SSP3-7.0 scenario is associated with the highest PM2.5 exposure, with a global concentration of 34.5 μg/m[3] in 2100, while SSP1-2.6 scenario has the lowest exposure, with an estimated of 15.7 μg/m[3] in 2100. PM2.5-related deaths for individuals under 75 years will decrease by 16.3 and 10.5% under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, from 2030s to 2090s. However, premature mortality for elderly individuals (>75 years) will increase, causing the contrary trends of improved air quality and increased total PM2.5-related deaths in the four SSPs. Our results emphasize the need for stronger air pollution mitigation measures to offset the future burden posed by population age.}, }
@article {pmid37373294, year = {2023}, author = {Quan, PQ and Li, JR and Liu, XD}, title = {Glucose Dehydrogenases-Mediated Acclimation of an Important Rice Pest to Global Warming.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {24}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {37373294}, issn = {1422-0067}, support = {31871960//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; Glucose Dehydrogenases ; Hydrogen Peroxide ; Larva/physiology ; *Moths/physiology ; Acclimatization ; Insecta ; }, abstract = {Global warming is posing a threat to animals. As a large group of widely distributed poikilothermal animals, insects are liable to heat stress. How insects deal with heat stress is worth highlighting. Acclimation may improve the heat tolerance of insects, but the underlying mechanism remains vague. In this study, the high temperature of 39 °C was used to select the third instar larvae of the rice leaf folder Cnaphalocrocis medinalis, an important insect pest of rice, for successive generations to establish the heat-acclimated strain (HA39). The molecular mechanism of heat acclimation was explored using this strain. The HA39 larvae showed stronger tolerance to 43 °C than the unacclimated strain (HA27) persistently reared at 27 °C. The HA39 larvae upregulated a glucose dehydrogenase gene, CmGMC10, to decrease the reactive oxygen species (ROS) level and increase the survival rate under heat stress. The HA39 larvae maintained a higher activity of antioxidases than the HA27 when confronted with an exogenous oxidant. Heat acclimation decreased the H2O2 level in larvae under heat stress which was associated with the upregulation of CmGMC10. The rice leaf folder larvae may acclimate to global warming via upregulating CmGMC10 to increase the activity of antioxidases and alleviate the oxidative damage of heat stress.}, }
@article {pmid37372673, year = {2023}, author = {Kais, SM and Islam, MS}, title = {Climate Change, Ecological Modernization, and Disaster Management: The Coastal Embankment Project in Southwestern Bangladesh.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {37372673}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Bangladesh ; *Disasters ; Floods ; *Natural Disasters ; }, abstract = {Climate change, one of the severest environmental threats to humankind, disproportionately affects low-income, developing countries in the Global South. Having no feasible mitigation alternatives, these countries resort to adaptation efforts to address climate perturbations. Climate change adaptation (or resilience) is primarily a localized course of action that depends on individuals, social networks, economies, ecologies, political structures, and the capabilities of all those to work collectively to absorb, learn from, and transform in the face of new realities. With a view to controlling the floods that shattered the life and economy of the then East Pakistan, which is now Bangladesh, during the mid-twentieth century, the coastal embankment project (CEP) was instituted as an adaptation strategy to natural disasters in Southwestern Bangladesh. Based on a qualitative analysis of primary and secondary data, this paper seeks to critically evaluate the efficacy of the CEP in terms of the space for feasible action and ecological modernization. The findings of this research indicate that the CEP has become an unrealistic venture that hinders the growing economic activity of shrimp aquaculture in the area. This paper is expected to contribute to generating further theoretical and empirical discourse on the evaluation of similar development projects around the globe.}, }
@article {pmid37372106, year = {2023}, author = {Druzhinina, O and Rudinskaya, A and Filippova, K and Lazukova, L and Lavrova, N and Zharov, A and Skhodnov, I and Burko, A and van den Berghe, K}, title = {The Bølling-Allerød Transition in the Eastern Baltic: Environmental Responses to Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {37372106}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {This research was funded by the Russian Science Foundation, project &#x2116; 22-17-00113, https://rscf.en/project/22-17-00113.//Russian Science Foundation/ ; project &#x2116; 22-17-00113, https://rscf.en/project/22-17-00113.//Russian Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {This paper presents the results of a study on the Kulikovo section (south-eastern Baltic Sea coast), a sediment sequence exposing deposits of a post-glacial basin that existed along the edge of the glacier in the Late Pleistocene. The research was targeted at the reconstruction of the dynamics of the local environmental systems in response to climatic oscillations of the Lateglacial (the Older Dryas-first half of the Allerød). The evolution of the local biotic components on the territories of the Baltic region after the ice retreat is still poorly understood. Data from geochronological, lithological, diatom, algo-zoological and palynological analyses provide a reconstruction of local aquatic and terrestrial biocenoses and their response to short-term warmings and coolings that took place 14,000-13,400 cal yr BP. This study has demonstrated that, during the Older Dryas and first part of the Allerød (GI-1d and GI-1c), the aquatic and terrestrial environment of the Kulikovo basin underwent several changes, resulting in eight stages of the basin evolution, most probably related to the short-term climatic fluctuations that could have had a duration of several decades. The data obtained in this study have revealed the fairly dynamic and complex evolution of the pioneer landscapes, as indicated by the changes in the hydrological regime of the area and by the traced successions of plant communities from the pioneer swampy vegetation to park and real forests towards the middle of the Allerød.}, }
@article {pmid37370487, year = {2023}, author = {Ramírez, JFP and Amanajás, RD and Val, AL}, title = {Ammonia Increases the Stress of the Amazonian Giant Arapaima gigas in a Climate Change Scenario.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {37370487}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {062.01187/2017//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas/ ; Financing code 001//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; 465540/2014-7//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; }, abstract = {Ammonia is toxic to fish, and when associated with global warming, it can cause losses in aquaculture. In this study, we investigated the physiological and zootechnical responses of Arapaima gigas to the current scenarios and to RCP8.5, a scenario predicted by the IPCC for the year 2100 which is associated with high concentrations of environmental ammonia (HEA). Forty-eight chipped juvenile A. gigas were distributed in two experimental rooms (current scenario and RCP8.5) in aquariums with and without the addition of ammonia (0.0 mM and 2.44 mM) for a period of 30 days. The HEA, the RCP8.5 scenario, and the association of these factors affects the zootechnical performance, the ionic regulation pattern, and the levels of ammonia, glucose, triglycerides, sodium, and potassium in pirarucu plasma. The branchial activity of H[+]-ATPase was reduced and AChE activity increased, indicating that the species uses available biological resources to prevent ammonia intoxication. Thus, measures such as monitoring water quality in regard to production, densities, and the feed supplied need to be more rigorous and frequent in daily management in order to avoid the accumulation of ammonia in water, which, in itself, proved harmful and more stressful to the animals subjected to a climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid37370230, year = {2023}, author = {Mattoo, R and B M, S}, title = {Microbial roles in the terrestrial and aquatic nitrogen cycle-implications in climate change.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology letters}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsle/fnad061}, pmid = {37370230}, issn = {1574-6968}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Nitrogen Cycle ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Soil/chemistry ; Nitrification ; Soil Microbiology ; Denitrification ; }, abstract = {Nitrogen, as an essential component for living organisms, is the primary limiting nutrient on Earth. The availability and effective utilization of nitrogenous compounds for metabolic and other essential biochemical reactions are dependent on the myriad and phylogenetically diverse microbial communities. The microorganisms harmoniously interact and participate in every reaction of the nitrogen cycle to continuously transform nitrogen into its various bio-available forms. Research on the nitrogen cycle continues to disclose that there are many reactions that remain unknown. In this review, we summarize the recent discoveries that have contributed to advancing our understanding of the microbial involvement in reactions of the nitrogen cycle in soil and aquatic systems that influence climate change. Additionally, the mini-review highlights, which anthropogenic activities cause disturbances in the nitrogen cycle and proposes how beneficial microbes may be harnessed to replenish nitrogen in agricultural ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid37369846, year = {2023}, author = {Chi, H and Wu, Y and Zheng, H and Zhang, B and Sun, Z and Yan, J and Ren, Y and Guo, L}, title = {Spatial patterns of climate change and associated climate hazards in Northwest China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {10418}, pmid = {37369846}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2021YFB3901202//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; Grant 2019QZKK0202//the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program/ ; }, abstract = {Northwest China (NWC) is experiencing noticeable climate change accompanied with increasing impacts of climate hazards induced by changes in climate extremes. Towards developing climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the negative climatic impacts on both the ecosystem and socioeconomic system of the region, this study investigates systematically the spatial patterns of climate change and the associated climate hazards across NWC based on high resolution reanalysis climate dataset for the period 1979 to 2018. We find that NWC overall is under a warming and wetting transition in climate with change rate of temperature and precipitation around 0.49 °C/10a and 22.8 mm/10a respectively. Characteristics of climate change over the NWC however vary considerably in space. According to significance of long-term trends in both temperature and aridity index for each 0.1° × 0.1° grids, five types of climate change are identified across NWC, including warm-wetting, warm-drying, warm without wetting, wetting without warming and unchanging. The warm-wetting zone accounts for the largest proportion of the region (41%) and mainly locates in the arid or semi-arid northwestern NWC. Our findings show most region of NWC is under impacts of intensifying heatwave and rainstorm due to significant increases in high temperature extremes and precipitation extremes. The warming but without wetting zone is found under a more severe impact of heatwave, particularly for areas near northern Mount. Qinling and northern Loess Plateau. Areas with stronger wetting trend is suffering more from rainstorm.}, }
@article {pmid37368728, year = {2023}, author = {Fall, P and Diouf, I and Deme, A and Diouf, S and Sene, D and Sultan, B and Famien, AM and Janicot, S}, title = {Bias-Corrected CMIP5 Projections for Climate Change and Assessments of Impact on Malaria in Senegal under the VECTRI Model.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {37368728}, issn = {2414-6366}, abstract = {On the climate-health issue, studies have already attempted to understand the influence of climate change on the transmission of malaria. Extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, or heat waves can alter the course and distribution of malaria. This study aims to understand the impact of future climate change on malaria transmission using, for the first time in Senegal, the ICTP's community-based vector-borne disease model, TRIeste (VECTRI). This biological model is a dynamic mathematical model for the study of malaria transmission that considers the impact of climate and population variability. A new approach for VECTRI input parameters was also used. A bias correction technique, the cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) method, was applied to climate simulations to remove systematic biases in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) that could alter impact predictions. Beforehand, we use reference data for validation such as CPC global unified gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation (CPC for Climate Prediction Center), ERA5-land reanalysis, Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), and African Rainfall Climatology 2.0 (ARC2). The results were analyzed for two CMIP5 scenarios for the different time periods: assessment: 1983-2005; near future: 2006-2028; medium term: 2030-2052; and far future: 2077-2099). The validation results show that the models reproduce the annual cycle well. Except for the IPSL-CM5B model, which gives a peak in August, all the other models (ACCESS1-3, CanESM2, CSIRO, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, inmcm4, and IPSL-CM5B) agree with the validation data on a maximum peak in September with a period of strong transmission in August-October. With spatial variation, the CMIP5 model simulations show more of a difference in the number of malaria cases between the south and the north. Malaria transmission is much higher in the south than in the north. However, the results predicted by the models on the occurrence of malaria by 2100 show differences between the RCP8.5 scenario, considered a high emission scenario, and the RCP4.5 scenario, considered an intermediate mitigation scenario. The CanESM2, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, inmcm4, and IPSL-CM5B models predict decreases with the RCP4.5 scenario. However, ACCESS1-3, CSIRO, NRCM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, and GFDL-ESM2M predict increases in malaria under all scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The projected decrease in malaria in the future with these models is much more visible in the RCP8.5 scenario. The results of this study are of paramount importance in the climate-health field. These results will assist in decision-making and will allow for the establishment of preventive surveillance systems for local climate-sensitive diseases, including malaria, in the targeted regions of Senegal.}, }
@article {pmid37368725, year = {2023}, author = {Moo-Llanes, DA and Sánchez-Montes, S and López-Ordoñez, T and Dzul-Rosado, K and Segura-Trejo, D and Salceda-Sánchez, B and Danis-Lozano, R}, title = {Comparison of Climate Change Scenarios of Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato (Latreille 1806) from México and the Boarders with Central America and the United States.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {37368725}, issn = {2414-6366}, abstract = {In America, the presence of Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu stricto and Rhipicephalus linnaei has been confirmed. Both species are found in sympatry in the southern United States, northern Mexico, southern Brazil, and Argentina. The objective of this work is to evaluate the projection of the potential distribution of the ecological niche of Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato in two climate change scenarios in Mexico and the border with Central America and the United States. Initially, a database of personal collections of the authors, GBIF, Institute of Epidemiological Diagnosis and Reference, and scientific articles was built. The ENMs were projected for the current period and two future scenarios: RCP and SSP used for the kuenm R package, the ecological niche of R. sanguineus s.l. It is distributed throughout the Mexico and Texas (United States), along with the border areas between Central America, Mexico, and the United States. Finally, it is observed that the ecological niche of R. sanguineus s.l. in the current period coincides in three degrees with the routes of human migration. Based on this information, and mainly on the flow of migrants from Central America to the United States, the risk of a greater gene flow in this area increases, so the risk relating to this border is a latent point that must be analyzed.}, }
@article {pmid37368049, year = {2023}, author = {Wani, BA and Wani, SA and Magray, JA and Ahmad, R and Ganie, AH and Nawchoo, IA}, title = {Correction to: Habitat suitability, range dynamics, and threat assessment of Swertia petiolata D. Don: a Himalayan endemic medicinally important plant under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {7}, pages = {893}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-023-11414-3}, pmid = {37368049}, issn = {1573-2959}, }
@article {pmid37367309, year = {2023}, author = {Landaverde, R and Rodriguez, MT and Parrella, JA}, title = {Honey Production and Climate Change: Beekeepers' Perceptions, Farm Adaptation Strategies, and Information Needs.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {37367309}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {Because climate change has severely impacted global bee populations by depleting their habitats and food sources, beekeepers must implement management practices to adapt to changing climates. However, beekeepers in El Salvador lack information about necessary climate change adaptation strategies. This study explored Salvadoran beekeepers' experiences adapting to climate change. The researchers used a phenomenological case study approach and conducted semi-structured interviews with nine Salvadoran beekeepers who were members of The Cooperative Association for Marketing, Production, Savings, and Credit of Beekeepers of Chalatenango (ACCOPIDECHA). The beekeepers perceived water and food scarcity, as well as extreme weather events (e.g., increasing temperature, rain, winds), as the leading climate change-induced challenges to their production. Such challenges have augmented their honey bees' physiological need for water, limited their movement patterns, decreased apiary safety, and increased the incidence of pests and diseases, all of which have led to honey bee mortality. The beekeepers shared adaptation strategies, including box modification, apiary relocation, and food supplementation. Although most beekeepers accessed climate change information using the internet, they struggled to understand and apply pertinent information unless they received it from trusted ACCOPIDECHA personnel. Salvadoran beekeepers require information and demonstrations to improve their climate change adaptation strategies and implement new ones to address the challenges they experience.}, }
@article {pmid37366494, year = {2023}, author = {Liobikienė, G and Matiiuk, Y and Krikštolaitis, R}, title = {The concern about main crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and climate change's impact on energy-saving behavior.}, journal = {Energy policy}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {113678}, pmid = {37366494}, issn = {0301-4215}, abstract = {The number of crises experienced around the world forces people to reconsider and reassess various aspects of their lives. The energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and uncontrolled climate change revealed the importance of energy-saving behavior. Thus, the aim of this paper is to analyze the concerns about current crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and climate change's impact on energy-saving behavior and changes in environmental concern. Referring to the survey conducted in Lithuania in 2022, where 1000 respondents participated, the results revealed that the war in Ukraine was the most concerning problem. The level of climate change concern was slightly lower. Meanwhile, the Covid-19 pandemic was the least important problem in Lithuania in 2022. Furthermore, respondents stated that the Covid-19 pandemic contributed to the changes in environmental concern and energy-saving actions more than the war in Ukraine did. Meanwhile, the Generalized Linear Model results revealed that only the war in Ukraine positively and significantly influenced energy-saving behavior. The Covid-19 pandemic concern negatively affected energy-saving behavior, while the climate change concern factor affected it indirectly, as the interaction of attitudes toward energy consumption. Thus, this study revealed the main aspect of and how to encourage energy-saving behavior in the context of the main current crises.}, }
@article {pmid37366181, year = {2023}, author = {Nielsen, ME and Nylin, S and Wiklund, C and Gotthard, K}, title = {Evolution of butterfly seasonal plasticity driven by climate change varies across life stages.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {26}, number = {9}, pages = {1548-1558}, doi = {10.1111/ele.14280}, pmid = {37366181}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {//Bolin Centre for Climate Research/ ; VR 2017-04500//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Butterflies ; Seasons ; Climate Change ; Larva ; Life Cycle Stages ; }, abstract = {Photoperiod is a common cue for seasonal plasticity and phenology, but climate change can create cue-environment mismatches for organisms that rely on it. Evolution could potentially correct these mismatches, but phenology often depends on multiple plastic decisions made during different life stages and seasons that may evolve separately. For example, Pararge aegeria (Speckled wood butterfly) has photoperiod-cued seasonal life history plasticity in two different life stages: larval development time and pupal diapause. We tested for climate change-associated evolution of this plasticity by replicating common garden experiments conducted on two Swedish populations 30 years ago. We found evidence for evolutionary change in the contemporary larval reaction norm-although these changes differed between populations-but no evidence for evolution of the pupal reaction norm. This variation in evolution across life stages demonstrates the need to consider how climate change affects the whole life cycle to understand its impacts on phenology.}, }
@article {pmid37365712, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Protecting Children's Health: Asthma and Climate Change.}, journal = {MCN. The American journal of maternal child nursing}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {E8}, doi = {10.1097/NMC.0000000000000934}, pmid = {37365712}, issn = {1539-0683}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Child Health ; Climate Change ; *Asthma/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid37365702, year = {2023}, author = {Hawkins, J and Tremblay, B}, title = {Climate Change and Maternal Child Health.}, journal = {MCN. The American journal of maternal child nursing}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {180}, doi = {10.1097/NMC.0000000000000925}, pmid = {37365702}, issn = {1539-0683}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid37364836, year = {2023}, author = {Qiu, L and Jacquemyn, H and Burgess, KS and Zhang, LG and Zhou, YD and Yang, BY and Tan, SL}, title = {Contrasting range changes of terrestrial orchids under future climate change in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {895}, number = {}, pages = {165128}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165128}, pmid = {37364836}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Phylogeny ; *Climate Change ; China ; *Orchidaceae ; }, abstract = {Climate change has impacted the distribution and abundance of numerous plant and animal species during the last century. Orchidaceae is one of the largest yet most threatened families of flowering plants. However, how the geographical distribution of orchids will respond to climate change is largely unknown. Habenaria and Calanthe are among the largest terrestrial orchid genera in China and around the world. In this paper, we modeled the potential distribution of eight Habenaria species and ten Calanthe species in China under the near-current period (1970-2000) and the future period (2081-2100) to test the following two hypotheses: 1) narrow-ranged species are more vulnerable to climate change than wide-ranged species; 2) niche overlap between species is positively correlated with their phylogenetic relatedness. Our results showed that most Habenaria species will expand their ranges, although the climatic space at the southern edge will be lost for most Habenaria species. In contrast, most Calanthe species will shrink their ranges dramatically. Contrasting range changes between Habenaria and Calanthe species may be explained by their differences in climate-adaptive traits such as underground storage organs and evergreen/deciduous habits. Habenaria species are predicted to generally shift northwards and to higher elevations in the future, while Calanthe species are predicted to shift westwards and to higher elevations. The mean niche overlap among Calanthe species was higher than that of Habenaria species. No significant relationship between niche overlap and phylogenetic distance was detected for both Habenaria and Calanthe species. Species range changes in the future was also not correlated with their near current range sizes for both Habenaria and Calanthe. The results of this study suggest that the current conservation status of both Habenaria and Calanthe species should be adjusted. Our study highlights the importance of considering climate-adaptive traits in understanding the responses of orchid taxa to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37363283, year = {2023}, author = {Saxena, A}, title = {Deteriorating Environmental Quality with Special Reference to War and Its Impact on Climate Change.}, journal = {National Academy science letters. National Academy of Sciences, India}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-4}, pmid = {37363283}, issn = {0250-541X}, abstract = {Any country may win the war, but the nature not even being a party, is always at looser end. The war ends up with great loss to environment, nature, natural resources and humanity. War-time military operations, mock drill or domestic assignments like insurgencies, riots, violence, etc., have irreversible and paramount impact on concentration of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, NOx etc.), suspended particulate matter, ecological footprint and climate change. With the invention of newer weapons of mass destruction of biological, chemical or mechanical nature, the chances of losing the humanity and life support system from blue planet are more pronounced. The existence of life on mother earth is in great danger speaking loudly to stop the war or war will stop us. Our today's actions will leave its signature on ecosystem health and life quality in future. Climate change is silently galloping number of species from the planet. Being nonpathogenic, it cannot be treated through vaccination but can easily overcome by adopting eco-friendly life style. World needs solution-oriented, transdisciplinary science-based social movement for improving the planetary health.}, }
@article {pmid37363233, year = {2023}, author = {Farooq, Z and Sjödin, H and Semenza, JC and Tozan, Y and Sewe, MO and Wallin, J and Rocklöv, J}, title = {European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {100509}, pmid = {37363233}, issn = {2352-7714}, abstract = {West Nile virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne zoonosis, has emerged as a disease of public health concern in Europe. Recent outbreaks have been attributed to suitable climatic conditions for its vectors favoring transmission. However, to date, projections of the risk for WNV expansion under climate change scenarios is lacking. Here, we estimate the WNV-outbreaks risk for a set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. We delineate the potential risk-areas and estimate the growth in the population at risk (PAR). We used supervised machine learning classifier, XGBoost, to estimate the WNV-outbreak risk using an ensemble climate model and multi-scenario approach. The model was trained by collating climatic, socioeconomic, and reported WNV-infections data (2010-22) and the out-of-sample results (1950-2009, 2023-99) were validated using a novel Confidence-Based Performance Estimation (CBPE) method. Projections of area specific outbreak risk trends, and corresponding population at risk were estimated and compared across scenarios. Our results show up to 5-fold increase in West Nile virus (WNV) risk for 2040-60 in Europe, depending on geographical region and climate scenario, compared to 2000-20. The proportion of disease-reported European land areas could increase from 15% to 23-30%, putting 161 to 244 million people at risk. Across scenarios, Western Europe appears to be facing the largest increase in the outbreak risk of WNV. The increase in the risk is not linear but undergoes periods of sharp changes governed by climatic thresholds associated with ideal conditions for WNV vectors. The increased risk will require a targeted public health response to manage the expansion of WNV with climate change in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid37362993, year = {2023}, author = {Karami, R}, title = {Hierarchy of value orientation and beliefs in climate change influencing the farmers' extractive or non-extractive behavior on the farm.}, journal = {Environment, development and sustainability}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-20}, pmid = {37362993}, issn = {1573-2975}, abstract = {Understanding drivers of farmers' extractive and non-extractive behavior regarding natural resources has become increasingly important in the face of anthropogenic climatic change, which is a major challenge in today's world. Non-extractive behavior on the farm refers to the use of natural resources to the extent that it is possible to renew the context and not harm nature and non-renewable resources. Extractive behavior on the farm is associated with the extensive extraction of natural resources without provision for their renewal such as digging deeper wells instead of using water optimally, using chemical fertilizers with more repetition and higher dosage instead of the bio-fertilizers, and as a later result more climate change. To successfully respond human-made climate change using a cognitive hierarchy model, the influence of values on belief and behavior was assessed by a survey method among farmers of Zanjan province, Iran. A representative sample of 265 farmers was surveyed using proportional randomized multi-stage sampling. The results revealed that value orientation significantly elucidated 21% of the variability in non-extractive behavior and 26% of extractive behavior variance in a direct way and through beliefs in climate change. The recommendations have been presented to increase farmer's efforts to reduce their ecological footprint in nature.}, }
@article {pmid37362989, year = {2023}, author = {Ley Bosch, P and de Castro González, &#xd3; and García Sánchez, F}, title = {Mass tourism urban destinations and climate change in small islands: resilience to extreme rainfall in the Canary Islands.}, journal = {Environment, development and sustainability}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-21}, pmid = {37362989}, issn = {1573-2975}, abstract = {The Canary Islands are one of the main destinations for mass tourism in the European context, characterized by the absence of seasonality in tourist activity. Moreover, the level of activity increases during the winters, coinciding with a greater probability of extreme rainfall events, whose danger seems to be increasing as a result of climate change. Owing to its pronounced orography, the southern coast of the island of Gran Canaria houses several tourist settlements built along ravines and steeply sloping terrain. This scenario presents considerable risk because of spatial probability of landslide occurrence. The case of San Agustín, especially, serves to test the model of tourist urbanization along the hillside, demonstrating its high fragility in the face of extreme rainfall events. Especially owing to its importance in providing assistance in emergency situations, its vulnerability has been analyzed with regard to accessibility, which is entirely dependent on road mobility. The growth model of San Agustín serves as an example of mass tourism in small islands, allowing urban planners and designers to assess corrective measures based on managing its existing road infrastructure and open spaces right from the planning stage.}, }
@article {pmid37362853, year = {2023}, author = {Chander, AM and Singh, NK and Venkateswaran, K}, title = {Microbial Technologies in Waste Management, Energy Generation and Climate Change: Implications on Earth and Space.}, journal = {Journal of the Indian Institute of Science}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-6}, pmid = {37362853}, issn = {0970-4140}, abstract = {Microbes are important decomposers of organic waste. By decomposing organic waste and using it for their growth, microbes play an important role in maintaining ecosystem's carbon and nitrogen cycles. An ecosystem's microbial shift may disturb it's carbon/nitrogen cycle as a result of any climate change or humanitarian factors, but heat produced by various instruments and greenhouse gases contribute significantly to global warming which in turn may be related to microbial shift of ecosystems. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, innovative clean energy production methods must be employed to develop fuels with minimal greenhouse effect. Biofuels, such as bioethanol, provide clean energy with less carbon dioxide emissions. For the production of bioethanol, it is always recommended to use microbes that are capable of decomposing complex organic matter (cellulose, lignin, hemicellulose). Some microbes can efficiently decompose complex organic matter due to the presence of genetic machinery that produces cellulases and β-glucosidase. The membrane transporters are also important for microbes in uptake of simple sugars for metabolism and ethanol production. Microbial technologies are addressing the future needs for not only organic waste management but also clean energy/bioethanol production. However, the role of these technologies on space missions and extraterrestrial settings needs to be explored to improve long term space missions.}, }
@article {pmid37362760, year = {2023}, author = {Shields, R and Lu, T}, title = {Uncertain futures: climate change and international student mobility in Europe.}, journal = {Higher education}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-18}, pmid = {37362760}, issn = {1573-174X}, abstract = {The rapid growth of international student mobility has attracted much research on the many benefits it offers to students, higher education institutions, and societies in general. However, studies on the costs and potential tribulations caused by mobility are comparatively rare, despite increasing evidence of such costs inherent in the marketization of higher education. Furthermore, the few existing studies are predominantly framed in terms of consumerism and the commodification of education, but they give less attention to mobility in the context of wider social issues. The climate crisis is foremost among such social impacts, with the extensive air travel inherent in global mobility patterns causing significant damage, combined with curricula, pedagogies, and institutional strategy that are either ambivalent or contradictory on the climate crisis. This paper examines international student mobility in European higher education to better understand how the environmental costs of higher education can be conceptualized in policy and practice. It contrasts policies and practices that promote international student mobility in Europe-in which mobility has aspects of what are commonly referred to as "public goods"-with initiatives that promote mobility to Europe, which illustrate a historic and ongoing entanglement between European colonialism, higher education, and climate change. It concludes with reflections on possibilities for greater sustainability in international student mobility in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid37362420, year = {2023}, author = {Filipe, JC and Ahrens, CC and Byrne, M and Hardy, G and Rymer, PD}, title = {Germination temperature sensitivity differs between co-occurring tree species and climate origins resulting in contrasting vulnerability to global warming.}, journal = {Plant-environment interactions (Hoboken, N.J.)}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {146-162}, pmid = {37362420}, issn = {2575-6265}, abstract = {Climate change is shifting temperatures from historical patterns, globally impacting forest composition and resilience. Seed germination is temperature-sensitive, making the persistence of populations and colonization of available habitats vulnerable to warming. This study assessed germination response to temperature in foundation trees in south-western Australia's Mediterranean-type climate forests (Eucalyptus marginata (jarrah) and Corymbia calophylla (marri)) to estimate the thermal niche and vulnerability among populations. Seeds from the species' entire distribution were collected from 12 co-occurring populations. Germination thermal niche was investigated using a thermal gradient plate (5-40°C). Five constant temperatures between 9 and 33°C were used to test how the germination niche (1) differs between species, (2) varies among populations, and (3) relates to the climate of origin. Germination response differed among species; jarrah had a lower optimal temperature and thermal limit than marri (T o 15.3°C, 21.2°C; ED50 23.4°C, 31°C, respectively). The thermal limit for germination differed among populations within both species, yet only marri showed evidence for adaptation to thermal origins. While marri has the capacity for germination at higher thermal temperatures, jarrah is more vulnerable to global warming exceeding safety margins. This discrepancy is predicted to alter species distributions and forest composition in the future.}, }
@article {pmid37361954, year = {2023}, author = {Choi, I}, title = {Does climate change affect economic data?.}, journal = {Empirical economics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-18}, pmid = {37361954}, issn = {0377-7332}, abstract = {This paper derives the seasonal factors from the US temperature, gasoline price, and fresh food price data sets using the Kalman state smoother and the principal component analysis. Seasonality in this paper is modeled by the autoregressive process and added to the random component of the time series. The derived seasonal factors show a common feature: their volatilities have increased over the last four decades. Climate change is undoubtedly reflected in the temperature data. The three data sets' similar patterns from the 1990s suggest that climate change may have affected the prices' volatility behavior.}, }
@article {pmid37361895, year = {2023}, author = {Osama Ghoraba, M}, title = {Influential Spanish Politicians' Discourse of Climate Change on Twitter: A Corpus-Assisted Discourse Study.}, journal = {Corpus pragmatics : international journal of corpus linguistics and pragmatics}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-60}, pmid = {37361895}, issn = {2509-9515}, abstract = {This piece of research explores language use in a sample of unprecedentedly studied discourse which is that of climate change communication by influential Spanish politicians via Twitter. For that purpose, we created a specialized corpus composed of tweets tackling climate change that were posted by influential Spanish politicians during the past decade. Our aim was to reveal prominent linguistic patterns that are susceptible of conveying a specific worldview (i.e.: the wording of reality) of climate change to Twitter users. Our analysis started with keywords analysis in order to gather quantitative data about the lexical choices deployed in our corpus, then by means of qualitative analysis based on semantic classification of keywords and the examination of their concordances we were able to point out distinctive features of our corpus' discourse. Our results have revealed the prevalence of specific linguistic patterns, metaphors and frames that contribute to create a narrative of climate change as a villain and the human race, specifically political leaders, as the saviour.}, }
@article {pmid37361862, year = {2023}, author = {Baştürk, S and Erol, S}, title = {Optimizing ship speed depending on cargo and wind-sea conditions for sustainable blue growth and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of marine science and technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-16}, pmid = {37361862}, issn = {0948-4280}, abstract = {The impact of fuel consumption on merchant ships is categorized in both economic and environmental ways in terms of sustainable blue growth. Apart from the economic benefits of reducing fuel consumption, attention should be paid to related environmental concerns with ship fuels. As a result of global regulations and agreements concerning mitigating greenhouse gases on board, such as the International Maritime Organization and Paris Agreement, ships have to take a step to reduce fuel consumption to adopt these regulations. The present study aims to determine optimal speed diversity depending on ships' cargo amounts and wind-sea states to reduce fuel consumption. Within this context, one-year voyage data from two model sister Ro-Ro cargo ships were used, including daily ship speed, daily fuel consumption, ballast water consumption, total ship cargo consumption, sea state, and wind state. The genetic algorithm method was used to determine the optimal diversity rate. In conclusion, after speed optimization, optimum speed result values are calculated between 16.59 and 17.29 knots; thus, approximately 18% of exhaust gas emissions were also reduced.}, }
@article {pmid37361481, year = {2023}, author = {Liaqat, W and Altaf, MT and Barutçular, C and Nawaz, H and Ullah, I and Basit, A and Mohamed, HI}, title = {Ultraviolet-B radiation in relation to agriculture in the context of climate change: a review.}, journal = {Cereal research communications}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-24}, pmid = {37361481}, issn = {0133-3720}, abstract = {Over the past few decades, the amount of ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B) reaching the earth's surface has been altered due to climate change and stratospheric ozone dynamics. This narrow but highly biologically active spectrum of light (280-320 nm) can affect plant growth and development. Depletion of ozone and climate change are interlinked in a very complicated manner, i.e., significantly contributing to each other. The interaction of climate change, ozone depletion, and changes in UV-B radiation negatively affects the growth, development, and yield of plants. Furthermore, this interaction will become more complex in the coming years. The ozone layer reduction is paving a path for UV-B radiation to impact the surface of the earth and interfere with the plant's normal life by negatively affecting the plant's morphology and physiology. The nature and degree of the future response of the agricultural ecosystem to the decreasing or increasing UV-B radiation in the background of climate change and ozone dynamics are still unclear. In this regard, this review aims to elucidate the effects of enhanced UV-B radiation reaching the earth's surface due to the depletion of the ozone layer on plants' physiology and the performance of major cereals.}, }
@article {pmid37361264, year = {2023}, author = {Karim, R and Akter, N}, title = {Does climate change affect the transmission of COVID-19? A Bayesian regression analysis.}, journal = {Zeitschrift fur Gesundheitswissenschaften = Journal of public health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, pmid = {37361264}, issn = {2198-1833}, abstract = {AIM: Coronavirus is an airborne and infectious disease and it is crucial to check the impact of climatic risk factors on the transmission of COVID-19. The main objective of this study is to determine the effect of climate risk factors using Bayesian regression analysis.<br><br>METHODS: Coronavirus disease 2019, due to the effect of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has become a serious global public health issue. This disease was identified in Bangladesh on March 8, 2020, though it was initially identified in Wuhan, China. This disease is rapidly transmitted in Bangladesh due to the high population density and complex health policy setting. To meet our goal, The MCMC with Gibbs sampling is used to draw Bayesian inference, which is implemented in WinBUGS software.<br><br>RESULTS: The study revealed that high temperatures reduce confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19, but low temperatures increase confirmed cases and deaths. High temperatures have decreased the proliferation of COVID-19, reducing the virus's survival and transmission.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Considering only the existing scientific evidence, warm and wet climates seem to reduce the spread of COVID-19. However, more climate variables could account for explaining most of the variability in infectious disease transmission.}, }
@article {pmid37361134, year = {2023}, author = {Zittis, G and Ahrens, B and Obermann-Hellhund, A and Giannakis, E and Risto, D and Agulles Gamez, M and Jorda, G and Quesada Peña, M and Lora Rodríguez, V and Guersi Sauret, JL and Lionello, P and Briche, E and Collignan, J and Grätz, M and Arikas, D and Stylianou, C and Neophytou, H and Serghides, D}, title = {Maritime transport and regional climate change impacts in large EU islands and archipelagos.}, journal = {Euro-Mediterranean journal for environmental integration}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, pmid = {37361134}, issn = {2365-7448}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Maritime transport is a vital sector for global trade and the world economy. Particularly for islands, there is also an important social dimension of this sector, since island communities strongly rely on it for a connection with the mainland and the transportation of goods and passengers. Furthermore, islands are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, as the rising sea level and extreme events are expected to induce severe impacts. Such hazards are anticipated to also affect the operations of the maritime transport sector by affecting either the port infrastructure or ships en route. The present study is an effort to better comprehend and assess the future risk of maritime transport disruption in six European islands and archipelagos, and it aims at supporting regional to local policy and decision-making. We employ state-of-the-art regional climate datasets and the widely used impact chain approach to identify the different components that might drive such risks. Larger islands (e.g., Corsica, Cyprus and Crete) are found to be more resilient to the impacts of climate change on maritime operations. Our findings also highlight the importance of adopting a low-emission pathway, since this will keep the risk of maritime transport disruption similar to present levels or even slightly decreased for some islands because of an enhanced adaptation capacity and advantageous demographic changes.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41207-023-00370-6.}, }
@article {pmid37360129, year = {2023}, author = {Colombini, S and Graziosi, AR and Galassi, G and Gislon, G and Crovetto, GM and Enriquez-Hidalgo, D and Rapetti, L}, title = {Evaluation of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) equations to predict enteric methane emission from lactating cows fed Mediterranean diets.}, journal = {JDS communications}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {181-185}, pmid = {37360129}, issn = {2666-9102}, abstract = {The study aimed to evaluate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 (2006 and 2019) to predict enteric CH4 emissions from lactating cows fed Mediterranean diets. The effects of the CH4 conversion factor (Ym; CH4 energy loss as a percentage of gross energy intake) and digestible energy (DE) of the diet were evaluated as model predictors. A data set was created using individual observations derived from 3 in vivo studies on lactating dairy cows housed in respiration chambers and fed diets typical of the Mediterranean region based on silages and hays. Five models using different Ym and DE were evaluated following a Tier 2 approach: (1) average values of Ym (6.5%) and DE (70%) from IPCC (2006); (2) average value of Ym (5.7%) and DE (70.0%) from IPCC (2019; 1YM); (3) Ym = 5.7% and DE measured in vivo (1YMIV); (4) Ym = 5.7 or 6.0%, depending on dietary NDF, and DE = 70% (2YM); and (5) Ym = 5.7 or 6.0%, depending on dietary NDF, and DE measured in vivo (2YMIV). Finally, a Tier 2 model for Mediterranean diets (MED) was derived from the Italian data set (Ym = 5.58%; DE = 69.9% for silage-based diets and 64.8% for hay-based diets) and validated on an independent data set of cows fed Mediterranean diets. The most accurate models tested were 2YMIV, 2YM, and 1YMIV with predictions of 384, 377, and 377 (g of CH4/d), respectively, versus the in vivo value of 381. The most precise model was 1YM (slope bias = 1.88%; r = 0.63). Overall, 1YM showed the highest concordance correlation coefficient value (0.579), followed by 1YMIV (0.569). Cross-validation on an independent data set of cows fed Mediterranean diets (corn silage and alfalfa hay) resulted in concordance correlation coefficient of 0.492 and 0.485 for 1YM and MED, respectively. The prediction of MED (397) was more accurate than 1YM (405) in comparison with the corresponding in vivo value of 396 g of CH4/d. The results of this study showed that the average values proposed by IPCC (2019) can adequately predict CH4 emissions from cows fed typical Mediterranean diets. However, the use of specific factors for the Mediterranean area, such as DE, improved the accuracy of the models.}, }
@article {pmid37360053, year = {2023}, author = {Scaramanga, J and Reiss, MJ}, title = {Evolutionary stasis: creationism, evolution and climate change in the Accelerated Christian Education curriculum.}, journal = {Cultural studies of science education}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-19}, pmid = {37360053}, issn = {1871-1502}, abstract = {There has been little consideration in the science education literature of schools or curricula that advocate creationism. Accelerated Christian Education (ACE) is among the world's largest providers of creationist science materials with a curriculum divided into a system of workbooks which students complete at their own speed. This article examines the ways in which ACE presents particular areas of science that it considers to be contentious, namely evolution and climate change. The ACE curriculum has recently been rewritten, and we show that, like previous editions, the current curriculum relies on rote memorisation to the exclusion of other styles of learning, and that information presented is often misleading or distorted. Religious explanations of natural phenomena are sometimes given in place of scientific ones, and creationist assumptions are inserted into lessons not directly related to evolution or the Big Bang. Those who reject creationism are depicted as making an immoral choice. ACE's recent curricula also add material denying the role of humans in climate change. It is argued that both the teaching methods and content of the ACE curriculum place students at an educational disadvantage.}, }
@article {pmid37359831, year = {2023}, author = {Deng, Z and Javanroodi, K and Nik, VM and Chen, Y}, title = {Using urban building energy modeling to quantify the energy performance of residential buildings under climate change.}, journal = {Building simulation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-15}, pmid = {37359831}, issn = {1996-3599}, abstract = {The building sector is facing a challenge in achieving carbon neutrality due to climate change and urbanization. Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is an effective method to understand the energy use of building stocks at an urban scale and evaluate retrofit scenarios against future weather variations, supporting the implementation of carbon emission reduction policies. Currently, most studies focus on the energy performance of archetype buildings under climate change, which is hard to obtain refined results for individual buildings when scaling up to an urban area. Therefore, this study integrates future weather data with an UBEM approach to assess the impacts of climate change on the energy performance of urban areas, by taking two urban neighborhoods comprising 483 buildings in Geneva, Switzerland as case studies. In this regard, GIS datasets and Swiss building norms were collected to develop an archetype library. The building heating energy consumption was calculated by the UBEM tool-AutoBPS, which was then calibrated against annual metered data. A rapid UBEM calibration method was applied to achieve a percentage error of 2.7%. The calibrated models were then used to assess the impacts of climate change using four future weather datasets out of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The results showed a decrease of 22%-31% and 21%-29% for heating energy consumption, an increase of 113%-173% and 95%-144% for cooling energy consumption in the two neighborhoods by 2050. The average annual heating intensity dropped from 81 kWh/m[2] in the current typical climate to 57 kWh/m[2] in the SSP5-8.5, while the cooling intensity rose from 12 kWh/m[2] to 32 kWh/m[2]. The overall envelope system upgrade reduced the average heating and cooling energy consumption by 41.7% and 18.6%, respectively, in the SSP scenarios. The spatial and temporal distribution of energy consumption change can provide valuable information for future urban energy planning against climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37359137, year = {2023}, author = {Jalles, JT}, title = {Financial Crises and Climate Change.}, journal = {Comparative economic studies}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-25}, pmid = {37359137}, issn = {0888-7233}, abstract = {Climate change is a big challenge of our time. While there is a bourgeoning literature on the economic impact of climate change, research on how financial crises affect climate change is limited. We empirically use the local projection method to empirically study the impact of past financial crises on climate change vulnerability and resilience indices. Using a dataset covering 178 countries over the period 1995-2019, we observe that resilience to climate change shocks has been increasing and that advanced economies are the least vulnerable. Our econometric results suggest that financial crises (particularly systematic banking ones) tend to lead to a short-run deterioration in a country's resilience to climate change. This effect is more pronounced in developing economies. In downturns, if an economy is hit by a financial crisis, vulnerability to climate change increases.}, }
@article {pmid37355118, year = {2023}, author = {Ji, J and Yu, Y and Zhang, Z and Hua, T and Zhu, Y and Zhao, H}, title = {Notable conservation gaps for biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate change adaptation on the Tibetan Plateau, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {895}, number = {}, pages = {165032}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165032}, pmid = {37355118}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; Tibet ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Biodiversity ; China ; }, abstract = {Incorporating biodiversity, ecosystem services (ESs) and climate change adaptation into the conservation targets of protected areas (PAs) is being acknowledged. Targeting conservation actions requires a thorough understanding of the relationship between PAs and these important regions. However, few studies have identified conservation gaps while simultaneously considering these three aspects. Here, we assessed the representativeness of the PAs network for biodiversity, ESs and climate refugia (as a proxy for climate change adaptation ability) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Our analysis showed that these priority conservation regions were primarily located in the south and southeast of the TP, while they were impacted by intense human pressure. Most ESs and all types of species richness showed a significant positive correlation. Additionally, a positive correlation between multiple climate refugia and different types of species richness was detected. Representativeness analysis revealed notable conservation gaps for these three aspects in existing PAs, highlighting the urgency of adjusting their distribution and improving their representativeness. By integrating these conservation targets, priority regions for future conservation were further delineated. Taken together, our findings contribute to improving the efficiency of PAs and optimizing conservation planning.}, }
@article {pmid37354933, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, Y and Duo, L and Zhao, D and Zeng, Y and Guo, X}, title = {The response of ecosystem vulnerability to climate change and human activities in the Poyang lake city group, China.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {233}, number = {}, pages = {116473}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.116473}, pmid = {37354933}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Lakes ; Climate Change ; China ; Human Activities ; }, abstract = {Ecosystem vulnerability is an ecological response of the environment to external damage. Studying the influencing factors and spatiotemporal changes of ecosystem vulnerability is helpful to maintain ecological balance. At present, studies on ecosystem vulnerability are relatively homogeneous and rarely integrate climate change and human activities. Based on a habitat-function framework, this study analyzed the response of ecosystem vulnerability on climate change and human activities in the Poyang Lake City Group (PLCG) in 2010, 2015 and 2020. The spatial agglomeration of ecosystem vulnerability has been analyzed by using GeoDa model. The interaction of factors on ecosystem vulnerability have been analyzed by using geographical detector. It can be seen that the ecosystem vulnerability of the PLCG have increased from 2010 to 2020. The impacts of climate change to the ecosystem vulnerability have showed a positive correlation. Meanwhile, the key factors leading to the change of ecological vulnerability are still human activities. This methodology demonstrates a high level of robustness when applied to other research domains. This research is conducive to maintaining the integrity of the ecosystem, realizing the development of man and nature, and promoting the sound and rapid development of economic society.}, }
@article {pmid37354841, year = {2023}, author = {Ouyang, J and Wu, H and Yang, H and Wang, J and Liu, J and Tong, Y and Wang, D and Huang, M}, title = {Global warming induces the succession of photosynthetic microbial communities in a glacial lake on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {242}, number = {}, pages = {120213}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.120213}, pmid = {37354841}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Humans ; Lakes/microbiology ; Tibet ; Global Warming ; Glycerol ; *Cyanobacteria ; *Microbiota ; Water ; }, abstract = {As an important freshwater resource in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, glacial lakes are being immensely affected by global warming. Due to the lack of long-term monitoring data, the processes and driving mechanisms of the water ecology of these glacial lakes in a rapidly changing climate are poorly understood. This study, for the first time, reconstructed changes in water temperature and photosynthetic microbial communities over the past 200 years in Lake Basomtso, a glacial lake on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Temperatures were reconstructed using a paleotemperature proxy based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs), the cell membrane lipids of some bacteria, and photosynthetic microbial communities were determined by high-throughput DNA sequencing. The reconstructed mean annual air temperature (MAAT) at Lake Basomtso varied between 6.9 and 8.3 °C over the past 200 years, with a rapid warming rate of 0.25 °C /10 yrs after 1950s. Carbon isotope of sediment and n-alkane analyses indicate that ≥95% of the organic matter in Lake Basomtso is derived from a mixture of terrestrial C3 plants and endogenous organic matter inputs, and the proportion of endogenous organic matter in the sediments has gradually increased since the 1960s. The sedimentary DNA analyses of the sediment core reveal that Chloracea is the most dominant prokaryotic photosynthetic microbial group (84.5%) over the past 200 years. However, the relative abundance of Cyanobacteria has increased from ≤6.8% before the 1960s to 15.5% nowadays, suggesting that warmer temperatures favor the growth of Cyanobacteria in glacial lakes. Among eukaryotic photosynthetic microorganisms, the Chlorophyceae have been gradually replaced by Dinoflagellata and Diatomacae since the 1980s, although the Chlorophyceae still had the highest average relative abundance overall (30-40%). The Pb isotopic composition, together with the total phosphorous concentration, implies that human activity exerted a minimal impact on Lake Basomtso over the past 200 yrs. However, the synchronous fluctuations of total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), and metal elements in sediments suggest that temperature appears to have a strong influence on nutrient input to Lake Basomtso by controlling glacial erosion. Global warming and the concurrent increase in glacial meltwater are two main factors driving changes in nutrient inputs from terrestrial sources which, in turn, increases the lake productivity, and changes microbial community composition. Our findings demonstrate the sensitive response of glacial lake ecology to global warming. It is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and research of glacial lake ecology on the Tibetan plateau, so as to more scientifically and accurately understand the response process and mechanism of the glacial lake ecosystem under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid37354373, year = {2023}, author = {Treble, M and Cosma, A and Martin, G}, title = {Child and Adolescent Psychological Reactions to Climate Change: A Narrative Review Through an Existential Lens.}, journal = {Current psychiatry reports}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {357-363}, pmid = {37354373}, issn = {1535-1645}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; *Emotions ; Anxiety ; Mental Health ; Stress, Psychological ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: A narrative review was conducted on research surrounding children's and adolescents' experiences of emotional and mental health and wellbeing in relation to climate change; we also explored potential connections to existential themes.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Children and adolescents represent a vulnerable group in relation to experiencing negative mental health impacts due to climate change. Further, this population experiences a wide range of emotions in relation to climate change, with most research reporting on worry and anxiety. Several studies that explored associations between such emotions and mental health outcomes found positive associations. Additionally, research suggests that there is an existential underpinning to how climate change is experienced by children and adolescents. Although important contributions have been made in recent years, knowledge gaps remain. An understanding of the psychological responses children and adolescents have in relation to climate change is needed to inform practice and policy. This may be supported by an existential framework.}, }
@article {pmid37353987, year = {2023}, author = {Parker, J}, title = {Microbial marvels: could microbes resolve climate change?.}, journal = {BioTechniques}, volume = {74}, number = {6}, pages = {279-281}, doi = {10.2144/btn-2023-0043}, pmid = {37353987}, issn = {1940-9818}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Carbon ; Nitrogen ; }, abstract = {Our planet faces many challenges. Namely, the damage caused by human disruption of natural levels of carbon and nitrogen as a result of the use of fossil fuels. Microbes play a crucial role in the biogeochemical processing of these elements, in turn placing them at the heart of one of the most testing issues of all time - climate change. [Formula: see text].}, }
@article {pmid37353016, year = {2023}, author = {Song, C and Xiong, Y and Jin, P and Sun, Y and Zhang, Q and Ma, Z and Gao, G}, title = {Mariculture structure adjustment to achieve China's carbon neutrality and mitigate climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {895}, number = {}, pages = {164986}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164986}, pmid = {37353016}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Carbon/analysis ; Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Carbon Sequestration ; Social Conditions ; *Seaweed ; China ; }, abstract = {China is responsible for the biggest shellfish and macroalgae production in the world. In this study, comprehensive methods were used to assess the CO2 release and sequestration by maricultured shellfish and macroalgae in China. Through considering CaCO3 production and CO2 release coefficient (Φ, moles of CO2 released per mole of CaCO3 formed) in different waters, we find that cultured shellfish released 0.741 ± 0.008 Tg C yr[-1] through calcification based on the data of 2016-2020. In addition to calcification, maricultured shellfish released 0.580 ± 0.004 Tg C yr[-1] by respiration. Meanwhile, shellfish sequestered 0.145 ± 0.001 and 0.0387 ± 0.0004 Tg C yr[-1] organic carbon in sediments and shells, respectively. Therefore, the net released CO2 by maricultured shellfish was 1.136 ± 0.011 Tg C yr[-1], which is about four times higher than that maricultured macroalgae could sequester (0.280 ± 0.010 Tg C yr[-1]). To achieve carbon neutrality within the mariculture system, shellfish culture may need to be restricted and meanwhile the expansion of macroalgae cultivation should be carried out. The mean carbon sequestration rate of seven kinds of macroalgae was 174 ± 6 g m[-2] yr[-1] while some cultivated macroalgae had higher CO2 sequestration rates, e.g. 356 ± 24 g C m[-2] yr[-1] for Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis and 331 ± 17 g C m[-2] yr[-1] for Undaria pinnatifida. In scenario 0.5 (CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage) sequesters 0.5 Gt CO2 per year), using macroalgae culture cannot achieve China's carbon neutrality by 2060 but in scenarios 1.0 and 1.5 (CCUS sequesters 1.0 and 1.5 Gt CO2 per year, respectively) it is feasible to achieve carbon neutrality using some macroalgae species with high carbon sequestration rates. This study provides important insights into how to develop mariculture in the context of carbon-neutrality and climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid37352955, year = {2023}, author = {Tran, HM and Chuang, TW and Chuang, HC and Tsai, FJ}, title = {Climate change and mortality rates of COPD and asthma: A global analysis from 2000 to 2018.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {233}, number = {}, pages = {116448}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.116448}, pmid = {37352955}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; Male ; Climate Change ; *Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology ; *Asthma/epidemiology ; *Respiration Disorders/epidemiology ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Global Health ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change plays a significant role in global health threats, particularly with respiratory diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, but the long-term global-scale impact of climate change on these diseases' mortality remains unclear.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of COPD and asthma at national levels.<br><br>METHODS: We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data of ASMR of COPD and asthma from 2000 to 2018. The climate change index was represented as the deviance percentage of temperature (DPT) and relative humidity (DPRH), calculated based on 19-year temperature and humidity averages. Annual temperature, RH, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels in 185 countries/regions were obtained from ERA5 and the OECD's environmental statistics database. General linear mixed-effect regression models were used to examine the associations between climate change with the log of ASMR (LASMR) of COPD and asthma.<br><br>RESULTS: After adjusting for annual PM2.5, SDI level, smoking prevalence, and geographical regions, a 0.26% increase in DPT was associated with decreases of 0.016, 0.017, and 0.014 per 100,000 people in LASMR of COPD and 0.042, 0.046, and 0.040 per 100,000 people in LASMR of asthma for both genders, males, and females. A 2.68% increase in DPRH was associated with increases of 0.009 and 0.011 per 100,000 people in LASMR of COPD. We observed a negative association of DPT with LASMR for COPD in countries/regions with temperatures ranging from 3.8 to 29.9&#xa0;&#xb0;C and with LASMR for asthma ranging from -5.3-29.9&#xa0;&#xb0;C. However, we observed a positive association of DPRH with LASMR for both COPD and asthma in the RH range of 41.2-67.2%.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change adaptation and mitigation could be crucial in reducing the associated COPD and asthma mortality rates, particularly in regions most vulnerable to temperature and humidity fluctuations.}, }
@article {pmid37351749, year = {2023}, author = {Singhania, M and Gupta, S and Chadha, G and Braune, E and Dana, LP and Idowu, SO}, title = {Mapping 26 years of climate change research in finance and accounting: a systematic scientometric analysis.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {35}, pages = {83153-83179}, pmid = {37351749}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; *COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Carbon ; Cluster Analysis ; Pandemics ; }, abstract = {Climate change and climate finance continue to attract substantial research interest in several dimensions and categories through COVID-19 breakout and resulting disruptions were crucial. An in-depth scientometric analysis was undertaken to gain concise insights on evolution and publication trends of this multi-dimensional field. Corpus of 657 articles, extracted from Web of Science from 1995 to 2020, were used to identify networks of co-authorship, keywords, subject categories, institutions, and countries engaged in publishing on climate finance along with co-citation and cluster analysis. Networks and interactive visualizations created using CiteSpace revealed new research areas where climate finance may be beneficial along with potential directions of development for climate finance discipline. We identify carbon neutrality, accounting for sustainability, planetary boundaries framework, sustainable finance, managing climate risk for third pole, financial innovation and green finance, green swans, COVID pandemic and corporate law and governance in climate finance as emerging domains of climate finance research, seeking overwhelming research attention globally.}, }
@article {pmid37351628, year = {2023}, author = {Padilla, P and Herrel, A and Denoël, M}, title = {May future climate change promote the invasion of the marsh frog? An integrative thermo-physiological study.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {202}, number = {2}, pages = {227-238}, pmid = {37351628}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {T.0070.19//Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Wetlands ; Temperature ; Hot Temperature ; Anura ; }, abstract = {Climate change and invasive species are two major drivers of biodiversity loss and their interaction may lead to unprecedented further loss. Invasive ectotherms can be expected to tolerate temperature variation because of a broad thermal tolerance and may even benefit from warmer temperatures in their new ranges that better match their thermal preference. Multi-trait studies provide a valuable approach to elucidate the influence of temperature on the invasion process and offer insights into how climatic factors may facilitate or hinder the spread of invasive ectotherms. We here used marsh frogs, Pelophylax ridibundus, a species that is invading large areas of Western Europe but whose invasive potential has been underestimated. We measured the maximal and minimal temperatures to sustain physical activity, the preferred temperature, and the thermal dependence of their stamina and jumping performance in relation to the environmental temperatures observed in their invasive range. Our results showed that marsh frogs can withstand body temperatures that cover 100% of the annual temperature variation in the pond they live in and 77% of the observed current annual air temperature variation. Their preferred body temperature and performance optima were higher than the average temperature in their pond and the average air temperature experienced under the shade. These data suggest that invasive marsh frogs may benefit from a warmer climate. Broad thermal tolerances, combined with high thermal preferences and traits maximised at high temperatures, may allow this species to expand their activity period and colonise underexploited shaded habitat, thereby promoting their invasion success.}, }
@article {pmid37348719, year = {2023}, author = {Tian, Y and Zhao, Y and Zhang, X and Li, S and Wu, H}, title = {Incorporating carbon sequestration into lake management: A potential perspective on climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {895}, number = {}, pages = {164939}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164939}, pmid = {37348719}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Lakes/analysis ; Chlorophyll A ; Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change ; Phytoplankton ; Zooplankton ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Exploring the carbon sequestration capacity of water ecosystems would contribute to coping with climate change. This study conducted an integrated method framework to achieve an improved understanding of the relationship between carbon sequestration and lake ecosystem components, as well as provide a new perspective on climate change for policymakers. The vertically generalized production model revealed the carbon sequestration capacity of lakes. The hierarchical linear model identified the cross-scale factors affecting phytoplankton. Then a developed multi-agents-based model with scenario analysis provided adaptive management strategies for carbon sequestration. Furthermore, we applied the integrated framework in the 63 polluted lakes of Wuhan. The results showed that the average carbon sequestration per unit area was at 0.87 kgC·m[-2]·a[-1], which was greater than that of the ocean and forest ecosystems, indicating that the lakes had a potential capacity for carbon sequestration. Total phosphorus had the strongest effect on the Chl-a (chlorophyll a) concentration (fixed effect (γ) =6.82, P < 0.1), followed by total nitrogen (γ = 6.38, P < 0.05), Rotifer biomass (γ = 1.95, P < 0.01) and water temperature (γ = 1.27, P < 0.05). These results indicated that the bottom-up effect of chemical factors on phytoplankton was greater than the top-down effect of zooplankton. The proportion of grassland at the whole-lakes level would have a negative synergistic impact on the Chl-a with changing the micro water temperature at the part-lakes level (γ = -46.64, P < 0.05). There was no significant interaction effect between land cover change and total nitrogen (phosphorus) on the Chl-a. Therefore, we could indirectly confirm that point source pollution emissions would synergistically affect the Chl-a and carbon sequestration along with the effects of physical-chemical conditions. The coordinated proportional control of nitrogen and phosphorus and the artificial controlling biomass of zooplankton-feeding fish were proposed to improve carbon sequestration and water quality for lake management.}, }
@article {pmid37348394, year = {2023}, author = {Collado-González, J and Carmen Piñero, M and Otalora, G and Lopez-Marín, J and Del Amor, FM}, title = {Plant growth-promoting bacteria as affected by N availability as a suitable strategy to enhance the nutritional composition of lamb's lettuce affected by global warming.}, journal = {Food chemistry}, volume = {426}, number = {}, pages = {136559}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodchem.2023.136559}, pmid = {37348394}, issn = {1873-7072}, mesh = {Humans ; *Nitrates/metabolism ; *Valerianella ; Global Warming ; Heat-Shock Response ; Bacteria/genetics/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Heat and nutritional stresses have a significantly effect on the accumulation of bioactive and other compounds harmful to human health, like nitrates, in green leafy vegetables like lamb's lettuce. Plant growth-promoting bacteria (PGPB) have shown to confer beneficial biochemical changes to various crops under different stresses. The hypothesis proposed here is that the combination of optimal N level (2.5 Mm, 12 mM or 20 mM of N) with the inoculation of PGPB in plants exposed to heat shock (43 °C) may be a good strategy to obtain healthier lamb's lettuce with a higher yield. Results showed that a dose of 20 mM N can be considered as overfertilization. Moreover, the inoculation of plants fed with fertilizers with reduced N and under heat stress, resulted in higher productivity and content of sugars (60 %), amino acids (94 %), nitrogen (21 %), and total phenolic compounds (30 %), and a reduced content of nitrates (27 %).}, }
@article {pmid37347329, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, L and Ali, A and Ji, H and Chen, J and Ni, G}, title = {Links between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and climate change, evidence from five emerging Asian countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {35}, pages = {83687-83701}, pmid = {37347329}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Economic Development ; *Climate Change ; Asia ; Renewable Energy ; China ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {One of the greatest challenges facing humanity in the current millennium is the need to mitigate climate change, and one of the most viable options to overcome this challenge is to invest in renewable energy. The study dynamically examines the links between renewable energy consumption, non-renewable energy consumption, climate change, and economic growth in five emerging Asian countries during the period 1975-2020. Variables selected in the model have long-term cointegration, as explored by the Pedroni cointegration test and the Westerlund cointegration test. The long-term estimated parameters of the augmented mean group (AMG) method show that renewable energy consumption significantly reduces climate change, while non-renewable energy consumption significantly promotes climate change. The results also show that GDP, investment in transport infrastructure, and urbanization can significantly contribute to climate change in selected emerging Asian countries. Moreover, the results validate the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis for emerging Asian economies. Country-specific analysis results using AMG estimates shows that renewable energy consumption reduces climate change in selected emerging Asian countries. Non-renewable energy consumption and investment in transport infrastructure have had significant progressive impacts on climate change in all countries. Urbanization contributes significantly to climate change, with the exception of Japan, which does not have any significant impact on climate change. GDP contributes significantly to climate change in all countries; however, GDP2 has significant adverse effects on climate change in India, China, Japan, and Korea, validating the inverted U-shaped EKC assumption for all countries except Bangladesh. Moreover, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality test confirmed a pairwise causal relationship between non-renewable energy consumption and GDP, supporting the feedback hypothesis. The results suggest that the best option for climate change mitigation in selected emerging Asian countries is to transition from non-renewable to renewable energy sources.}, }
@article {pmid37347210, year = {2023}, author = {Usman Qamar, M and Aatika, }, title = {Impact of climate change on antimicrobial resistance dynamics: an emerging One Health challenge.}, journal = {Future microbiology}, volume = {18}, number = {}, pages = {535-539}, doi = {10.2217/fmb-2023-0022}, pmid = {37347210}, issn = {1746-0921}, mesh = {*Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology ; Climate Change ; *One Health ; Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; }, }
@article {pmid37346616, year = {2023}, author = {Kvasničková Stanislavská, L and Pilař, L and Vogli, X and Hlavsa, T and Kuralová, K and Feenstra, A and Pilařová, L and Hartman, R and Rosak-Szyrocka, J}, title = {Global analysis of Twitter communication in corporate social responsibility area: sustainability, climate change, and waste management.}, journal = {PeerJ. Computer science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e1390}, pmid = {37346616}, issn = {2376-5992}, abstract = {Many people now consider social media to be an integral part of their daily routines, which has enabled companies to implement successful corporate social responsibility campaigns through these platforms. The direct interaction with stakeholders offered by social media helps companies to build understanding, trust, and their image. The aim of this study was to identify key topics and trends communicated in connection with corporate social responsibility on the Twitter social network from 2017 to 2022. Analysis of 520,638 tweets by 168,134 unique users identified a predominance of environment-related topics: Sustainability, Climate Change, and Waste management. However, Charity remains the largest single topic. Based on the trend analysis, the areas of ESG, Social Impact, and Charity were identified as growth areas in communication, while Green and Philanthropy, on the other hand, were identified as decreasing.}, }
@article {pmid37344553, year = {2023}, author = {Karlsson, H and Asutay, E and Västfjäll, D}, title = {A causal link between mental imagery and affect-laden perception of climate change related risks.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {10081}, pmid = {37344553}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Humans ; *Imagination ; *Climate Change ; Imagery, Psychotherapy ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Previous studies have shed light on the importance of affect in risk perception and the role of mental imagery in generating affect. In the current study, we explore the causal relationship between mental imagery, affect, and risk perception by systematically varying the level of mental imagery in three levels (i.e., enhanced, spontaneous, or prevented). In light of the increasing environmental risk of adverse events caused by climate change, we operationalize risk as participants' perceived risk of climate change. One-thousand-fifty-five participants were recruited online and randomized to one of three levels of mental imagery. As predicted, we found a causal link between the level of mental imagery, affective experience, and perceived risk of climate change, in that enhanced mental imagery caused a larger decrease in positive affective valence and a larger increase in perceived risk of climate change. We argue that mental imagery enhances the negative affect associated with the risk event by creating a perceptual experience that mimics seeing the environmental risk events.}, }
@article {pmid37342993, year = {2023}, author = {Ayalon, L and Roy, S}, title = {The role of chronological age in climate change attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions: The case of null results.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {6}, pages = {e0286901}, pmid = {37342993}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; *Intention ; *Climate Change ; Negative Results ; Attitude ; Anxiety ; }, abstract = {Past research has stressed the role of age and generation in climate change discourse, worries, and willingness to act. Therefore, the present paper aimed to examine the role of chronological age (as an arbitrary factor, which represents ageism) in lay people's climate change-related attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions. Two experiments in different countries, Australia and Israel, were conducted for this purpose. The first study examined the impact of the age of the speaker, who provides information about the climate crisis and the second examined the impact of the age of the group being blamed for the situation. Outcome variables included perceived responsibility and motivation for the current climate situation in study 1 and perceived climate change-related attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions in study 2. In study 1 (n = 250, Australia), the age of the speaker, a climate activist, varied randomly to test the hypothesis that a younger activist would be more influential and increase motivation and responsibility to act compared to an older activist. In study 2 (n = 179, Israel), the age (young vs. old) of the group identified as being responsible for the climate crisis varied randomly, to test the hypothesis that people would be more willing to identify older people as being responsible for the current climate situation, and this would impact climate change-related attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions. Both studies resulted in null effects. Additionally, there was no interaction between the age of the respondent and the age of the source of the message or the age group being blamed by the message. The present study has failed to show that strategies that emphasize intergenerational conflict and ageism impact people's attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions towards the current climate situation. This possibly can serve as an instigator for strategies that emphasize intergenerational solidarity, rather than conflict, as a guiding principle in future campaigns that advocate climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.}, }
@article {pmid37342432, year = {2023}, author = {Hertig, E and Hunger, I and Kaspar-Ott, I and Matzarakis, A and Niemann, H and Schulte-Droesch, L and Voss, M}, title = {Climate change and public health in Germany - An introduction to the German status report on climate change and health 2023.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {6-32}, pmid = {37342432}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {Global warming of 1.5°C and even 2°C is likely to be exceeded during the 21[st] century. Climate change poses a worldwide threat and has direct and indirect effects on infectious diseases, on non-communicable diseases and on mental health. Not all people are equally able to protect themselves against the impacts of climate change; particularly populations that are vulnerable due to individual factors (children, older persons, those immunocompromised or with pre-existing conditions), social factors (the socially disadvantaged), or living and working conditions (e. g. people who work outdoors) are subject to an increased risk. Concepts such as One Health or Planetary Health provide a framework to frame both climate change itself and adaptation strategies or sets of actions for environmental human and animal health. Knowledge of climate change impacts has grown in recent years, and mitigation and adaptation strategies have been developed.}, }
@article {pmid37342431, year = {2023}, author = {Dietrich, J and Hammerl, JA and Johne, A and Kappenstein, O and Loeffler, C and Nöckler, K and Rosner, B and Spielmeyer, A and Szabo, I and Richter, MH}, title = {Impact of climate change on foodborne infections and intoxications.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {78-92}, pmid = {37342431}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Temperature, precipitation, and humidity are important factors that can influence the spread, reproduction, and survival of pathogens. Climate change affects these factors, resulting in higher air and water temperatures, increased precipitation, or water scarcity. Climate change may thus have an increasing impact on many infectious diseases.<br><br>METHODS: The present review considers those foodborne pathogens and toxins in animal and plant foods that are most relevant in Germany, on the basis of a selective literature review: the bacterial pathogens of the genera Salmonella, Campylobacter and Vibrio, parasites of the genera Cryptosporidium and Giardia, and marine biotoxins.<br><br>RESULTS: As climate change continues to progress, all infections and intoxications discussed here can be expected to increase in Germany.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The expected increase in foodborne infections and intoxications presents a growing public health risk in Germany.}, }
@article {pmid37342430, year = {2023}, author = {Dupke, S and Buchholz, U and Fastner, J and Förster, C and Frank, C and Lewin, A and Rickerts, V and Selinka, HC}, title = {Impact of climate change on waterborne infections and intoxications.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {62-77}, pmid = {37342430}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {Progressive climate change holds the potential for increasing human health risks from waterborne infections and intoxications, e. g. through an increase in pathogen concentrations in water bodies, through the establishment of new pathogens or through possible changes in pathogen properties. This paper presents some examples of potential impacts of climate change in Germany. Non-cholera Vibrio occur naturally in seawater, but can proliferate significantly in shallow water at elevated temperatures. In the case of Legionella, climate change could lead to temporary or longer-term increased incidences of legionellosis due to the combination of warm and wet weather. Higher temperatures in piped cold water or lower temperatures in piped hot water may also create conditions conducive to higher Legionella concentrations. In nutrient-rich water bodies, increased concentrations of toxigenic cyanobacteria may occur as temperatures rise. Heavy rainfall following storms or prolonged periods of heat and drought can lead to increased levels of human pathogenic viruses being washed into water bodies. Rising temperatures also pose a potential threat to human health through pathogens causing mycoses and facultatively pathogenic micro-organisms: increased infection rates with non-tuberculous mycobacteria or fungi have been documented after extreme weather events.}, }
@article {pmid37342429, year = {2023}, author = {Beermann, S and Dobler, G and Faber, M and Frank, C and Habedank, B and Hagedorn, P and Kampen, H and Kuhn, C and Nygren, T and Schmidt-Chanasit, J and Schmolz, E and Stark, K and Ulrich, RG and Weiss, S and Wilking, H}, title = {Impact of climate change on vector- and rodent-borne infectious diseases.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {33-61}, pmid = {37342429}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Endemic and imported vector- and rodent-borne infectious agents can be linked to high morbidity and mortality. Therefore, vector- and rodent-borne human diseases and the effects of climate change are important public health issues.<br><br>METHODS: For this review, the relevant literature was identified and evaluated according to the thematic aspects and supplemented with an analysis of surveillance data for Germany.<br><br>RESULTS: Factors such as increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and human behaviour may influence the epidemiology of vector- and rodent-borne infectious diseases in Germany.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The effects of climatic changes on the spread of vector- and rodent-borne infectious diseases need to be further studied in detail and considered in the context of climate adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid37342428, year = {2023}, author = {Meinen, A and Tomczyk, S and Wiegand, FN and Abu Sin, M and Eckmanns, T and Haller, S}, title = {Antimicrobial resistance in Germany and Europe - A systematic review on the increasing threat accelerated by climate change.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {93-108}, pmid = {37342428}, issn = {2511-2708}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is one of the top ten global public health threats facing humanity, alongside climate change. Here, we aim to summarise the effects of climate change (i.e. raise of temperature, change in humidity or precipitation) on spread of antibiotic resistance and on infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in Germany.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a literature search with articles published between January 2012 and July 2022. Two authors screened titles, abstracts and full texts and extracted the data systematically.<br><br>RESULTS: From originally 2,389 titles, we identified six studies, which met our inclusion criteria. These studies show that an increase in temperature may lead to higher antibiotic resistance rates and an increased risk of colonisation as well as spread of pathogens. Furthermore, the number of healthcare-associated infections increases with increased temperature. Data indicate that higher antibiotic use is present in areas with warmer mean temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: European data are scarce, but all studies identified point towards an increasing AMR burden due to climate change. However, further studies are needed to draw attention to the links between climatic factors and AMR and develop targeted preventive measures.}, }
@article {pmid37342427, year = {2023}, author = {Adrian, G and Dietrich, M and Esser, B and Hensel, A and Isermeyer, F and Messner, D and Mettenleiter, TC and Paulini, I and Riewenherm, S and Schaade, L and Tiesler, R and Wieler, LH}, title = {Together we can counter the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {8}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {3-5}, pmid = {37342427}, issn = {2511-2708}, }
@article {pmid37342129, year = {2023}, author = {Yin, T and Zhai, Y and Zhang, Y and Yang, W and Dong, J and Liu, X and Fan, P and You, C and Yu, L and Gao, Q and Wang, H and Zheng, P and Wang, R}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage variation in mountainous and hilly areas in Central South of Shandong Province based on tree-ring.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1158221}, pmid = {37342129}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: It is of great significance to understand the characteristics and influencing factors of vegetation coverage variation in the warm temperate zone. As a typical region of the warm temperate zone in eastern China, the mountainous and hilly region in central-south Shandong Province has fragile ecological environment and soil erosion problem. Studying on vegetation dynamics and its influencing factors in this region will help to better understand the relationship between climate change and vegetation cover change in the warm temperate zone of eastern China, and the influence of human activities on vegetation cover dynamics.<br><br>METHODS: Based on dendrochronology, a standard tree-ring width chronology was established in the mountainous and hilly region of central-south Shandong Province, and the vegetation coverage from 1905 to 2020 was reconstructed to reveal the dynamic change characteristics of vegetation cover in this region. Secondly, the influence of climate factors and human activities on the dynamic change of vegetation cover was discussed through correlation analysis and residual analysis.<br><br>RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: In the reconstructed sequence, 23 years had high vegetation coverage and 15 years had low vegetation coverage. After low-pass filtering, the vegetation coverage of 1911-1913, 1945-1951, 1958-1962, 1994-1996, and 2007-2011 was relatively high, while the vegetation coverage of 1925-1927, 1936-1942, 2001-2003, and 2019-2020 was relatively low. Although precipitation determined the variation of vegetation coverage in this study area, the impacts of human activities on the change of vegetation coverage in the past decades cannot be ignored. With the development of social economy and the acceleration of urbanization, the vegetation coverage declined. Since the beginning of the 21st century, ecological projects such as Grain-for-Green have increased the vegetation coverage.}, }
@article {pmid37341270, year = {2023}, author = {Gomides, SC and Pires-Oliveira, JC and Machado, TM}, title = {Threats from climate change for lizard species of a Neotropical mountain range.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {95}, number = {2}, pages = {e20210519}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202320210519}, pmid = {37341270}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Brazil ; *Lizards ; Records ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially for species of high altitudes. However, biodiversity conservation policies that consider mitigation strategies for long-term climate impacts are still scarce. To analyze the effects of climate change on lizards in tropical mountainous areas, we selected two species from Serra do Espinhaço (Brazil) with different thermoregulation strategies and distributions (Tropidurus montanus and Rhachisaurus brachylepis). Serra do Espinhaço mountain range is recognized as an important center of endemism and can act as a refuge for species that manage to survive climate change. We produce models of environmental suitability from bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic variables, and create projections for the present and for the year 2070 under an optimistic (RCP 4.5) and a pessimistic (RCP 8.5) climatic scenario. The results indicate that both future climate scenarios foresee a reduction of areas of environmental suitability for the studied species, but especially for the restricted distribution one (R. brachylepis). Although our results indicate that the studied species are recorded in areas of integral protection that possess climatic stability, the future will see a reduction of areas with environmental suitability, especially under the pessimistic scenario.}, }
@article {pmid37340689, year = {2023}, author = {Mundinger, C and van Schaik, J and Scheuerlein, A and Kerth, G}, title = {Heat over heritability: Increasing body size in response to global warming is not stabilized by genetic effects in Bechstein's bats.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {17}, pages = {4939-4948}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16824}, pmid = {37340689}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {RTG 2010//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; }, abstract = {How well populations can cope with global warming will often depend on the evolutionary potential and plasticity of their temperature-sensitive, fitness-relevant traits. In Bechstein's bats (Myotis bechsteinii), body size has increased over the last decades in response to warmer summers. If this trend continues it may threaten populations as larger females exhibit higher mortality. To assess the evolutionary potential of body size, we applied a Bayesian 'animal model' to estimate additive genetic variance, heritability and evolvability of body size, based on a 25-year pedigree of 332 wild females. Both heritability and additive genetic variance were reduced in hot summers compared to average and cold summers, while evolvability of body size was generally low. This suggests that the observed increase in body size was mostly driven by phenotypic plasticity. Thus, if warm summers continue to become more frequent, body size likely increases further and the resulting fitness loss could threaten populations.}, }
@article {pmid37340194, year = {2023}, author = {Mana, TT and Abebe, BW and Hatiye, SD}, title = {Effect of climate change on reservoir water balance and irrigation water demand: a case of Gidabo irrigation project, Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {7}, pages = {866}, pmid = {37340194}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Agricultural Irrigation/methods ; *Climate Change ; Ethiopia ; Prospective Studies ; Environmental Monitoring ; Water ; }, abstract = {The consequences of climate change on agriculture water demand are among the current and prospective challenges. The amount of water needed by crops is significantly affected by the regional climate. The influence of climate change on irrigation water demand and reservoir water balance components were examined. The results of seven regional climate models were compared, and the top-performing model was chosen for the study area. After model calibration and validation, the HEC-HMS model was used to forecast future water availability in the reservoir. The results show that under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, the reservoir's water availability in the 2050s will decline by approximately 7% and 9%, respectively. The CROPWAT results showed that the required irrigation water might rise by 26 to 39% in the future. However, the water supply for irrigation may be drastically reduced due to the drop in reservoir water storage. As a result, the irrigation command area could drop up to 21% (2878.4 ha) to 33% (4502 ha) in future climatic conditions. Therefore, we recommend alternative watershed management techniques and climate change adaptation measures to endure upcoming water shortages in the area.}, }
@article {pmid37340020, year = {2023}, author = {Ariza-Salamanca, AJ and Navarro-Cerrillo, RM and Quero-Pérez, JL and Gallardo-Armas, B and Crozier, J and Stirling, C and de Sousa, K and González-Moreno, P}, title = {Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {10033}, pmid = {37340020}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Chocolate ; *Cacao ; Ecosystem ; Trees ; Ghana ; }, abstract = {Previous research indicates that some important cocoa cultivated areas in West Africa will become unsuitable for growing cocoa in the next decades. However, it is not clear if this change will be mirrored by the shade tree species that could be used in cocoa-based agroforestry systems (C-AFS). We characterized current and future patterns of habitat suitability for 38 tree species (including cocoa), using a consensus method for species distribution modelling considering for the first time climatic and soil variables. The models projected an increase of up to 6% of the potential suitable area for cocoa by 2060 compared to its current suitable area in West Africa. Furthermore, the suitable area was highly reduced (14.5%) once considering only available land-use not contributing to deforestation. Regarding shade trees, 50% of the 37 shade tree species modelled will experience a decrease in geographic rate extent by 2040 in West Africa, and 60% by 2060. Hotspots of shade tree species richness overlap the current core cocoa production areas in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, suggesting a potential mismatch for the outer areas in West Africa. Our results highlight the importance of transforming cocoa-based agroforestry systems by changing shade tree species composition to adapt this production systems for future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37339784, year = {2023}, author = {Littler, K and Sheather, J and Singh, J and Wright, K}, title = {Why climate change health policy needs ethics to achieve health equity and climate justice-a call to action.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {381}, number = {}, pages = {1368}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.p1368}, pmid = {37339784}, issn = {1756-1833}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; Social Justice ; Health Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid37338909, year = {2023}, author = {Weppner, WG and Tejani, M}, title = {Improving Health Care Systems' Publicly Available Plans to Address Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA network open}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {e2321370}, doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.21370}, pmid = {37338909}, issn = {2574-3805}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; }, }
@article {pmid37338908, year = {2023}, author = {Lichter, KE and Weinstein, HNW and Husain, M and Kishan, R and Hantel, A and Maniar, A}, title = {National Cancer Institute Centers With Environmental Sustainability Plans for Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA network open}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {e2317206}, pmid = {37338908}, issn = {2574-3805}, support = {P50 CA206963/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; K08 CA273043/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {United States ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; National Cancer Institute (U.S.) ; *Neoplasms ; }, }
@article {pmid37336870, year = {2023}, author = {Belzer, A and Parker, ER}, title = {Climate Change, Skin Health, and Dermatologic Disease: A Guide for the Dermatologist.}, journal = {American journal of clinical dermatology}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {577-593}, pmid = {37336870}, issn = {1179-1888}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Dermatologists ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; *Dermatitis, Atopic ; *Psoriasis ; *Acne Vulgaris ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a pervasive impact on health and is of clinical relevance to every organ system. Climate change-related factors impact the skin's capacity to maintain homeostasis, leading to a variety of cutaneous diseases. Stratospheric ozone depletion has led to increased risk of melanoma and keratinocyte carcinomas due to ultraviolet radiation exposure. Atopic dermatitis, psoriasis, pemphigus, acne vulgaris, melasma, and photoaging are all associated with rising levels of air pollution. Elevated temperatures due to global warming induce disruption of the skin microbiome, thereby impacting atopic dermatitis, acne vulgaris, and psoriasis, and high temperatures are associated with exacerbation of skin disease and increased risk of heat stroke. Extreme weather events due to climate change, including floods and wildfires, are of relevance to the dermatologist as these events are implicated in cutaneous injuries, skin infections, and acute worsening of inflammatory skin disorders. The health consequences as well as the economic and social burden of climate change fall most heavily on vulnerable and marginalized populations due to structural disparities. As dermatologists, understanding the interaction of climate change and skin health is essential to appropriately manage dermatologic disease and advocate for our patients.}, }
@article {pmid37336857, year = {2023}, author = {Ali, J and Faridi, S and Sardar, M}, title = {Carbonic anhydrase as a tool to mitigate global warming.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {35}, pages = {83093-83112}, pmid = {37336857}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {BT/PR31686/BIC/101/1204/2019//Department of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology, India/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Carbonic Anhydrases ; Global Warming ; Carbon Dioxide ; Catalysis ; Technology ; }, abstract = {The global average temperature breaks the record every year, and this unprecedented speed at which it is unfolding is causing serious climate change which in turn impacts the lives of humans and other living organisms. Thus, it is imperative to take immediate action to limit global warming. Increased CO2 emission from the industrial sector that relies on fossil fuels is the major culprit. Mitigating global warming is an uphill battle that involves an integration of technologies such as switching to renewable energy, increasing the carbon sink capacity, and implementing carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) on major sources of CO2 emissions. Among all these methods, CCS is globally accepted as a potential technology to address this climate change. CCS using carbonic anhydrase (CA) is gaining momentum due to its advantages over other conventional CCS technologies. CA is a metalloenzyme that catalyses a fundamental reaction for life, i.e. the interconversion of bicarbonate and protons from carbon dioxide and water. The practical application of CA requires stable CAs operating under harsh operational conditions. CAs from extremophilic microbes are the potential candidates for the sequestration of CO2 and conversion into useful by-products. The soluble free form of CA is expensive, unstable, and non-reusable in an industrial setup. Immobilization of CA on various support materials can provide a better alternative for application in the sequestration of CO2. The present review provides insight into several types of CAs, their distinctive characteristics, sources, and recent developments in CA immobilization strategies for application in CO2 sequestration.}, }
@article {pmid37333687, year = {2023}, author = {Rajagopalan, S and Landrigan, PJ}, title = {The Inflation Reduction Act - implications for climate change, air pollution, and health.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {23}, number = {}, pages = {100522}, pmid = {37333687}, issn = {2667-193X}, }
@article {pmid37333631, year = {2023}, author = {Fu, F and Li, J and Li, Y and Chen, W and Ding, H and Xiao, S}, title = {Simulating the effect of climate change on soil microbial community in an Abies georgei var. smithii forest.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1189859}, pmid = {37333631}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is considered a region vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Studying the effects of climate change on the structure and function of soil microbial communities will provide insight into the carbon cycle under climate change. However, to date, changes in the successional dynamics and stability of microbial communities under the combined effects of climate change (warming or cooling) remain unknown, which limits our ability to predict the consequences of future climate change. In this study, in situ soil columns of an Abies georgei var. smithii forest at 4,300 and 3,500 m elevation in the Sygera Mountains were incubated in pairs for 1 year using the PVC tube method to simulate climate warming and cooling, corresponding to a temperature change of ±4.7°C. Illumina HiSeq sequencing was applied to study alterations in soil bacterial and fungal communities of different soil layers. Results showed that warming did not significantly affect the fungal and bacterial diversity of the 0-10 cm soil layer, but the fungal and bacterial diversity of the 20-30 cm soil layer increased significantly after warming. Warming changed the structure of fungal and bacterial communities in all soil layers (0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, and 20-30 cm), and the effect increased with the increase of soil layers. Cooling had almost no significant effect on fungal and bacterial diversity in all soil layers. Cooling changed the structure of fungal communities in all soil layers, but it showed no significant effect on the structure of bacterial communities in all soil layers because fungi are more adapted than bacteria to environments with high soil water content (SWC) and low temperatures. Redundancy analysis (RDA) and hierarchical analysis showed that changes in soil bacterial community structure were primarily related to soil physical and chemical properties, whereas changes in soil fungal community structure primarily affected SWC and soil temperature (Soil Temp). The specialization ratio of fungi and bacteria increased with soil depth, and fungi were significantly higher than bacteria, indicating that climate change has a greater impact on microorganisms in deeper soil layers, and fungi are more sensitive to climate change. Furthermore, a warmer climate could create more ecological niches for microbial species to coexist and increase the strength of microbial interactions, whereas a cooler climate could have the opposite effect. However, we found differences in the intensity of microbial interactions in response to climate change in different soil layers. This study provides new insights to understand and predict future effects of climate change on soil microbes in alpine forest ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid37332947, year = {2023}, author = {Xie, X and Hao, M and Ding, F and Ide, T and Helman, D and Scheffran, J and Wang, Q and Qian, Y and Chen, S and Wu, J and Ma, T and Ge, Q and Jiang, D}, title = {Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e17182}, pmid = {37332947}, issn = {2405-8440}, support = {220211/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the risk of different types of conflict worldwide in the context of climate change.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: Based on the database of armed conflict, COVID-19, detailed climate, and non-climate data covering the period 2020-2021, we applied Structural Equation Modeling specifically to reorganize the links between climate, COVID-19, and conflict risk. Moreover, we used the Boosted Regression Tree method to simulate conflict risk under the influence of multiple factors.<br><br>FINDINGS: The transmission risk of COVID-19 seems to decrease as the temperature rises. Additionally, COVID-19 has a substantial worldwide impact on conflict risk, albeit regional and conflict risk variations exist. Moreover, when testing a one-month lagged effect, we find consistency across regions, indicating a positive influence of COVID-19 on demonstrations (protests and riots) and a negative relationship with non-state and violent conflict risk.<br><br>CONCLUSION: COVID-19 has a complex effect on conflict risk worldwide under climate change.<br><br>IMPLICATIONS: Laying the theoretical foundation of how COVID-19 affects conflict risk and providing some inspiration for the implementation of relevant policies.}, }
@article {pmid37332900, year = {2023}, author = {Usman, M and Ali, A and Rosak-Szyrocka, J and Pilař, L and Baig, SA and Akram, R and Wudil, AH}, title = {Climate change and livestock herders wellbeing in Pakistan: Does nexus of risk perception, adaptation and their drivers matter?.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e16983}, pmid = {37332900}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Rural people, particularly in developing nations, rely on livestock as a key source of income. In Pakistan, rural people depend profoundly on buffalo, cows, sheep, and goats to earn their livelihood. The systems of agricultural production are at risk because of the negative effects of climate change. It badly affects production and quality of milk and meat, animal health, productivity, breeding, feed, and rangelands of livestock production. Climate change risks assessment and adaptation are required to minimize losses from these effects, which are not just technical but also socioeconomically significant. Hence, based on data collected from 1080 livestock herders using a multistage sampling technique in Punjab, Pakistan this study aims to assess perceived impact of climate change on livestock production and to assess coping strategies. In addition, determinants of adaptation strategies and their effects on livestock production was also estimated. Binary Logistic Regression was used to identify the drivers of adaptation strategies. In addition, Multi Group Analysis (MGA) in Partial Least Squares Path Modelling (PLS-PM) was applied to compare adapter and non-adapter of climate change adaptation strategies. Findings indicated that there are spread of various diseases to livestock due to adverse effects of climatic variability. There was reduction in the availability of the livestock's feed. Moreover, competition of water and land resources of livestock was also increasing. Low production efficiency resulted in decline of milk yield and meat production. Likewise, mortality of livestock, increased in still births, reduction in reproductive performance, decline in animal fertility, longevity, and general fitness, decreased birthing rates, rises in age at foremost calving in beef cattle was also prevailing. There were different adaptation policies used by farmers to handle with climate change and these were influenced by several demographic, socioeconomic, and agronomic aspects. Findings indicated that nexus of risk perception, adaptation plans and their determinants are beneficial to reduce the consequences of climatic variability and it improve the wellbeing of the herders. Risk management system may be created to protect livestock against losses caused by extreme weather events by providing awareness regarding influence of climate change on livestock. Easy and cheaper credit should be provided to the farmers to manage with the vulnerabilities of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37332309, year = {2023}, author = {Morrison, SA}, title = {Moving in a hotter world: Maintaining adequate childhood fitness as a climate change countermeasure.}, journal = {Temperature (Austin, Tex.)}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {179-197}, pmid = {37332309}, issn = {2332-8940}, abstract = {Children cope with high temperatures differently than adults do, largely because of slight alterations in their body proportions and heat loss mechanisms compared to fully mature humans. Paradoxically, all current tools of assessing thermal strain have been developed on adults. As the Earth's warming continues to accelerate, children are set to bear the health risk brunt of rising global temperatures. Physical fitness has a direct impact on heat tolerance, yet children are less fit and more obese than ever before. Longitudinal research reveals that children have 30% lower aerobic fitness than their parents did at the same age; this deficit is greater than can be recovered by training alone. So, as the planet's climate and weather patterns become more extreme, children may become less capable of tolerating it. This comprehensive review provides an outline of child thermoregulation and assessment of thermal strain, before moving to summarize how aerobic fitness can modulate hyperthermia, heat tolerance, and behavioral thermoregulation in this under-researched population. The nature of child physical activity, physical fitness, and one's physical literacy journey as an interconnected paradigm for promoting climate change resilience is explored. Finally, future research foci are suggested to encourage continued exploration of this dynamic field, notable since more extreme, multifactorial environmental stressors are expected to continue challenging the physiological strain of the human population for the foreseeable future.}, }
@article {pmid37331226, year = {2023}, author = {Israel, JK and Zhang, Z and Sang, Y and McGuire, PM and Steinschneider, S and Reid, MC}, title = {Climate change effects on denitrification performance of woodchip bioreactors treating agricultural tile drainage.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {242}, number = {}, pages = {120202}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.120202}, pmid = {37331226}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {*Denitrification ; *Climate Change ; Nitrates ; Agriculture ; Bioreactors ; }, abstract = {Denitrifying woodchip bioreactors (WBRs) are a nature-based technology that are increasingly used to control nonpoint source nitrate (NO3[-]) pollution in agricultural catchments. The treatment effectiveness of WBRs depends on temperature and hydraulic retention time (HRT), both of which are affected by climate change. Warmer temperatures will increase microbial denitrification rates, but the extent to which the resulting benefits to treatment performance may be offset by intensified precipitation and shorter HRTs is not clear. Here, we use three years of monitoring data from a WBR in Central New York State to train an integrated hydrologic-biokinetic model describing links among temperature, precipitation, bioreactor discharge, denitrification kinetics, and NO3[-] removal efficiencies. Effects of climate warming are assessed by first training a stochastic weather generator with eleven years of weather data from our field site, and then adjusting the distribution of precipitation intensities according to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between water vapor and temperature. Modeling results indicate, in our system, faster denitrification rates will outweigh the influence of intensified precipitation and discharge under warming, leading to net improvements in NO3[-] load reductions. Median cumulative NO3[-] load reductions at our study site from May - October are projected to increase from 21.7% (interquartile range 17.4%-26.1%) under baseline hydro-climate to 41.0% (interquartile range 32.6-47.1%) with a + 4 °C change in mean air temperature. This improved performance under climate warming is driven by strong nonlinear dependence of NO3[-] removal rates on temperature. Temperature sensitivity may increase with woodchip age and lead to stronger temperature-response in systems like this one with a highly aged woodchip matrix. While the impacts of hydro-climatic change on WBR performance will depend on site-specific properties, this hydrologic-biokinetic modeling approach provides a framework for assessing climate impacts on the effectiveness of WBRs and other denitrifying nature-based systems.}, }
@article {pmid37330738, year = {2023}, author = {Abid, MA and Abid, MB}, title = {Climate change justice goes beyond authorship equity.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {401}, number = {10393}, pages = {2036}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01124-8}, pmid = {37330738}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Authorship ; Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid37329911, year = {2023}, author = {Cheng, H and Park, CY and Cho, M and Park, C}, title = {Water requirement of Urban Green Infrastructure under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {893}, number = {}, pages = {164887}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164887}, pmid = {37329911}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The increased uncertainty of rainfall and high urban temperatures resulting from climate change present challenges for water management in Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI). UGI is an important component of cities, and it plays a crucial role in addressing various environmental issues (e.g., floods, pollutants, heat islands, etc.). Effective water management of UGI is essential to ensure its environmental and ecological benefits in the face of climate change. However, previous studies have not adequately investigated water management strategies for UGI under climate change scenarios. This study aims to estimate the current and future water requirement and effective rainfall (rainwater stored in the soil and plant roots available for plant evapotranspiration) to determine the irrigation requirement of UGI during periods of rainfall deficit under current and future climate conditions. The results indicate that the water requirement for UGI will continue to increase under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, with a larger increase projected under RCP8.5. For instance, the average annual water requirement for UGI in Seoul, South Korea is currently 731.29 mm, and it is projected to increase to 756.45 mm (RCP4.5) and 816.47 mm (RCP8.5) during the period of 2081-2100, assuming low managed water stress condition. In addition, the water requirement of UGI in Seoul is the highest in June (approximately 125-137 mm) and the lowest in December or January (about 5-7 mm). While irrigation is unnecessary in July and August due to sufficient rainfall, other months in Seoul require irrigation when rainfall is insufficient. For example, continuous insufficient rainfall from May to June 2100 and April to June 2081 would need >110 mm (RCP4.5) of irrigation requirement even under high managed water stress condition. The findings of this study provide a theoretical foundation for water management strategies in current and future UGI settings.}, }
@article {pmid37329721, year = {2023}, author = {Martin, G and Cosma, A and Roswell, T and Anderson, M and Treble, M and Leslie, K and Card, KG and Closson, K and Kennedy, A and Gislason, M}, title = {Measuring negative emotional responses to climate change among young people in survey research: A systematic review.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {329}, number = {}, pages = {116008}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.116008}, pmid = {37329721}, issn = {1873-5347}, mesh = {Humans ; Adolescent ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Climate Change ; *Emotions ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Psychometrics ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a threat to the mental and emotional wellbeing of all humans, but young people are particularly vulnerable. Emerging evidence has found that young people's awareness of climate change and the danger it poses to the planet can lead to negative emotions. To increase our understanding about this, survey instruments are needed that measure the negative emotions young people experience about climate change.<br><br>RESEARCH QUESTIONS: (1) What survey instruments are used to measure negative emotional responses to climate change in young people? (2) Do survey instruments measuring young people's negative emotional responses to climate change have evidence of reliability and validity? (3) What factors are associated with young people's negative emotional responses to climate change?<br><br>METHODS: A systematic review was conducted by searching seven academic databases on November 30, 2021, with an update on March 31, 2022. The search strategy was structured to capture three elements through various keywords and search terms: (1) negative emotions, (2) climate change, and (3) surveys.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 43 manuscripts met the study inclusion criteria. Among the 43 manuscripts, 28% focused specifically on young people, while the other studies included young people in the sample but did not focus exclusively on this population. The number of studies using surveys to examine negative emotional responses to climate change among young people has increased substantially since 2020. Survey instruments that examined worry or concern about climate change were the most common.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Despite growing interest in climate change emotions among young people, there is a lack of research on the validity of measures of such emotions. Further efforts to develop survey instruments geared to operationalize the emotions that young people are experiencing in relation to climate change are needed.}, }
@article {pmid37328554, year = {2023}, author = {Kannan, N}, title = {An analysis of the climate change effects on pesticide vapor drift from ground-based pesticide applications to cotton.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {9740}, pmid = {37328554}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Pesticides/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Herbicides ; Wind ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Vapor drift of applied pesticides is an increasing concern. Among the major crops cultivated in the Lower Mississippi Delta (LMD), cotton receives most of the pesticides. An investigation was carried out to determine the likely changes in pesticide vapor drift (PVD) as a result of climate change that occurred during the cotton growing season in LMD. This will help to better understand the consequences and prepare for the future climate. Pesticide vapor drift is a two-step process: (a) volatilization of the applied pesticide to vapors and (b) mixing of the vapors with the atmosphere and their transport in the downwind direction. This study dealt with the volatilization part alone. Daily values of maximum and minimum air temperature, averages of relative humidity, wind speed, wet bulb depression and vapor pressure deficit for 56 years from 1959 to 2014 were used for the trend analysis. Wet bulb depression (WBD), indicative of evaporation potential, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), indicative of the capacity of atmospheric air to accept vapors, were estimated using air temperature and relative humidity (RH). The calendar year weather dataset was trimmed to the cotton growing season based on the results of a precalibrated RZWQM for LMD. The modified Mann Kendall test, Pettitt test and Sen's slope were included in the trend analysis suite using 'R'. The likely changes in volatilization/PVD under climate change were estimated as (a) average qualitative change in PVD for the entire growing season and (b) quantitative changes in PVD at different pesticide application periods during the cotton growing season. Our analysis showed marginal to moderate increases in PVD during most parts of the cotton growing season as a result of climate change patterns of air temperature and RH during the cotton growing season in LMD. Estimated increased volatilization of the postemergent herbicide S-metolachlor application during the middle of July appears to be a concern in the last 20 years that exhibits climate alteration.}, }
@article {pmid37328479, year = {2023}, author = {Adhikari, P and Lee, YH and Poudel, A and Hong, SH and Park, YS}, title = {Global spatial distribution of Chromolaena odorata habitat under climate change: random forest modeling of one of the 100 worst invasive alien species.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {9745}, pmid = {37328479}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Introduced Species ; *Chromolaena ; Random Forest ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic activities and global climate change increase the risk of Chromolaena odorata invasion and habitat expansion. To predict its global distribution and habitat suitability under climate change, a random forest (RF) model was employed. The RF model, utilizing default parameters, analyzed species presence data and background information. The model revealed that the current spatial distribution of C. odorata covers 7,892,447 km[2]. Predictions for 2061- 2080 indicate expansion of suitable habitat (42.59 and 46.30%), reduction of suitable habit (12.92 and 12.20%), and preservation of suitable habitat (87.08 and 87.80%) under the SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway) 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, in comparison to the present distribution. Currently, C. odorata is predominantly found in South America, with limited presence in other continents. However, the data suggest that climate change will elevate the global invasion risk of C. odorata worldwide, particularly in Oceania, Africa, and Australia. Countries such as Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and Lesotho, which currently have unsuitable habitats, are predicted to have highly suitable habitats with climate change, supporting the idea that global habitat expansion for C. odorata will occur due to climate change. This study indicates that proper management of C. odorata is crucial during the early invasion phase.}, }
@article {pmid37328294, year = {2023}, author = {Wee, J and Tan, XR and Gunther, SH and Ihsan, M and Leow, MKS and Tan, DS and Eriksson, JG and Lee, JKW}, title = {Effects of Medications on Heat Loss Capacity in Chronic Disease Patients: Health Implications Amidst Global Warming.}, journal = {Pharmacological reviews}, volume = {75}, number = {6}, pages = {1140-1166}, doi = {10.1124/pharmrev.122.000782}, pmid = {37328294}, issn = {1521-0081}, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; *Global Warming ; *Hot Temperature ; Body Temperature Regulation/physiology ; Body Temperature/physiology ; Chronic Disease ; }, abstract = {Pharmacological agents used to treat or manage diseases can modify the level of heat strain experienced by chronically ill and elderly patients via different mechanistic pathways. Human thermoregulation is a crucial homeostatic process that maintains body temperature within a narrow range during heat stress through dry (i.e., increasing skin blood flow) and evaporative (i.e., sweating) heat loss, as well as active inhibition of thermogenesis, which is crucial to avoid overheating. Medications can independently and synergistically interact with aging and chronic disease to alter homeostatic responses to rising body temperature during heat stress. This review focuses on the physiologic changes, with specific emphasis on thermolytic processes, associated with medication use during heat stress. The review begins by providing readers with a background of the global chronic disease burden. Human thermoregulation and aging effects are then summarized to give an understanding of the unique physiologic changes faced by older adults. The effects of common chronic diseases on temperature regulation are outlined in the main sections. Physiologic impacts of common medications used to treat these diseases are reviewed in detail, with emphasis on the mechanisms by which these medications alter thermolysis during heat stress. The review concludes by providing perspectives on the need to understand the effects of medication use in hot environments, as well as a summary table of all clinical considerations and research needs of the medications included in this review. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Long-term medications modulate thermoregulatory function, resulting in excess physiological strain and predisposing patients to adverse health outcomes during prolonged exposures to extreme heat during rest and physical work (e.g., exercise). Understanding the medication-specific mechanisms of altered thermoregulation has importance in both clinical and research settings, paving the way for work toward refining current medication prescription recommendations and formulating mitigation strategies for adverse drug effects in the heat in chronically ill patients.}, }
@article {pmid37327890, year = {2023}, author = {Bertucci, JI and Veloso-Cerredelo, C and Bellas, J}, title = {Global climate change increases the impact of pollutant mixtures in the model species Paracentrotus lividus.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {893}, number = {}, pages = {164837}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164837}, pmid = {37327890}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Paracentrotus ; Climate Change ; Plastics ; *Environmental Pollutants ; Ecosystem ; *Chlorpyrifos/toxicity ; Seawater ; Larva ; Microplastics ; }, abstract = {The goal of the present work is to study whether ocean- acidification (OA) and -warming (OW) could increase the toxicity of pollutants on P. lividus. We studied how model pollutants such as chlorpyrifos (CPF) and microplastics (MP), alone or in combination, impact the fertilisation process, and the development of larvae under conditions of OA (dissolved inorganic carbon increase of 126 × 10[-6] mol per kg of sea water) and OW (temperature increase of 4 °C) predicted by FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) for the next 50 years. Fertilisation was determined by microscopic examination after 1 h. Growth, morphology, and alteration level were measured after 48 h of incubation. Results showed that CPF has a marked effect on the growth of larvae, but less on the fertilisation rate. When larvae are exposed to both MP and CPF, the effect on fertilisation and growth is higher than when CPF is added alone. Larvae exposed to CPF tend to adopt a rounded shape which is detrimental to their buoyancy and the combination with other stressors aggravate this situation. The variables most influenced by CPF or its mixtures are those related to body length, body width, and higher levels of body abnormalities, which is consistent with the degenerative effects caused by CPF on sea urchin larvae. The PCA analysis showed that temperature has more influence when embryos or larvae are exposed to a combination of stressors, demonstrating that global climate change drastically increase the impact of CPF on aquatic ecosystems. Overall, in this work we demonstrated that global climate change conditions increase the sensitivity of embryos to MP and CPF. Our findings support the idea that global change conditions could have a severe impact on marine life, increasing the negative effect of toxic agents commonly present in the sea and their mixtures.}, }
@article {pmid37327887, year = {2023}, author = {Wild, R and Nagel, C and Geist, J}, title = {Climate change effects on hatching success and embryonic development of fish: Assessing multiple stressor responses in a large-scale mesocosm study.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {893}, number = {}, pages = {164834}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164834}, pmid = {37327887}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Salmonidae ; Fresh Water ; Trout/physiology ; Rivers ; Salmon ; Embryonic Development ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens freshwater fish species due to predicted changes in thermal, sedimentary and hydrological properties of stream ecosystems. Gravel-spawning fish are particularly sensitive to such alterations as warming, higher inputs of fine sediment and low-flow all have potentially negative effects on the functionality of their reproductive habitat, the hyporheic zone. Multiple stressors can interact in synergistic and antagonistic manners, causing surprise-effects that cannot be predicted from the additive consideration of individual stressors. For obtaining reliable, yet realistic data on the climate change stressor effects warming (+3-4 °C), fine sediment (increase in <0.85 mm by 22 %) and low-flow (eightfold discharge-reduction), we constructed a unique large-scale outdoor-mesocosm facility consisting of 24 flumes to study individual and combined stressor responses in a fully-crossed, 3-way-replicated design. To acquire representative results reflecting individual susceptibilities of gravel-spawning fish species due to taxonomic affiliation or spawning seasonality, we studied hatching success and embryonic development in the three fish species brown trout (Salmo trutta L.), common nase (Chondrostoma nasus L.) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho L.). Fine sediment had the most significant single negative effect on both hatching rates and embryonic development (-80 % in brown trout, -50 % in nase, -60 % in Danube salmon). When fine sediment was combined with one or both of the other stressors, we observed strongly synergistic stressor responses, being distinctly stronger in the two salmonid species than in the cyprinid nase. Danube salmon was most susceptible to synergistic effects due to warmer spring water temperatures exacerbating the fine sediment-induced hypoxia, hence leading to complete mortality of fish eggs. This study highlights that individual and multiple-stressor effects depend strongly on life-history traits of respective species and that climate change stressors have to be assessed in combination to obtain representative results due to the high level of synergisms and antagonisms detected in this study.}, }
@article {pmid37327731, year = {2023}, author = {Kwakwa, PA}, title = {Climate change mitigation role of renewable energy consumption: Does institutional quality matter in the case of reducing Africa's carbon dioxide emissions?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {342}, number = {}, pages = {118234}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118234}, pmid = {37327731}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Economic Development ; Renewable Energy ; Africa ; }, abstract = {Renewable energy and institutions have emerged among other variables touted to address climate change problems. However, empirical results have been conflicting. With a relatively poorer state of institutional quality and a lower level of renewable energy development amidst rising carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Africa, the study assesses: a) the direct effect of renewable energy and institutional quality on CO2 emissions in Africa; and b) the moderation role of institutional quality on the effect of renewable energy on CO2 emissions in Africa. The study relies on panel data covering 2002-2021 for 32 African countries. The Fully-Modified OLS regression method is employed to analyze the data based on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, &amp; Technology (STIRPAT) model. The results show that urbanization and trade openness increase CO2 emissions. Although income has a positive effect on carbon emissions, the square term has a negative confirming the EKC hypothesis. Renewable energy also reduces CO2 emissions. Institutional quality variables of control of corruption, rule of law, regulatory quality, political stability and absence of violence, voice and accountability, government effectiveness and institutional index created from the above indicators reduce CO2 emissions. In addition, except government effectiveness, the remaining indicators of institutional quality negatively moderate the effect of renewable energy on CO2 emissions. The results among other things imply that intensifying the development and usage of renewable energy would help address the rising carbon dioxide emissions trend in Africa. Also, strengthening institutions promises to reduce CO2 emissions.}, }
@article {pmid37326296, year = {2023}, author = {Covert, HH and Abdoel Wahid, F and Wenzel, SE and Lichtveld, MY}, title = {Climate change impacts on respiratory health: exposure, vulnerability, and risk.}, journal = {Physiological reviews}, volume = {103}, number = {4}, pages = {2507-2522}, doi = {10.1152/physrev.00043.2022}, pmid = {37326296}, issn = {1522-1210}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change adversely impacts human health. In this perspective, we examine the impact of climate change on respiratory health risk. We describe five respiratory health threats-heat, wildfires, pollen, extreme weather events, and viruses-and discuss their impact on health outcomes in a warming climate. The risk of experiencing an adverse health outcome occurs at the intersection of exposure and vulnerability, consisting of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Exposed individuals and communities most at risk are those with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, as influenced by the social determinants of health. We call for the implementation of a transdisciplinary strategy for accelerating respiratory health research, practice, and policy in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37322817, year = {2023}, author = {Kothiyal, S and Prabhjyot-Kaur,  and Sandhu, SS and Kaur, J}, title = {Modelling the climate change impact of mitigation (RCP 2.6) and high emission (RCP 8.5) scenarios on maize yield and possible adaptation measures in different agroclimatic zones of Punjab, India.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {103}, number = {14}, pages = {6984-6994}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.12779}, pmid = {37322817}, issn = {1097-0010}, support = {//All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology/ ; //Science and Engineering Research Board/ ; }, mesh = {*Agriculture/methods ; *Zea mays ; Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; India ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: A simulation study was performed for assessing climate change impact on maize under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for Punjab, India. The study area comprised five agroclimatic zones (AZs) including seven locations. The bias corrected temperature and rainfall data from four models (CSIRO-Mk-3-6-0, FIO-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-MR and Ensemble) were used as input in CERES-Maize model which was run with constant management practices for two Punjab maize hybrids (PMH 1 and PMH 2). The maize yield for upcoming 70 years (2025-2095) was simulated and its deviations from the baseline (2010-2021) yield were computed under optimized sowing (early-May to early-July) and current sowing (end-May to end-June) period.<br><br>RESULTS: With current sowing dates, the maize yield declined under both RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively in all the AZs, that is, by 4-23% and 60-80% in AZ II, by 5-60% and 60-90% in AZ III, by 9-30% and 50-90% in AZ IV and by 13-40% and 30-90% in AZ V. Though yield decline was lesser under RCP 2.6 as compared to RCP 8.5, but still it indicates that adaptive strategy such as shifting of sowing dates may be helpful in stabilizing the maize yield.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results for iterative combinations of sowing period revealed that early June sowing in AZ II for both the hybrids, mid- to end-June (Ludhiana and Amritsar) and end-May to mid-June (Patiala) sowings for PMH 1 were able to nullify the negative impact of climate change. Maize cultivation in AZ IV and AZ V would not be a suitable venture for farmers of the region. &#xa9; 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid37322050, year = {2023}, author = {Ogega, OM and Scoccimarro, E and Misiani, H and Mbugua, J}, title = {Extreme climatic events to intensify over the Lake Victoria Basin under global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {9729}, pmid = {37322050}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {DCI-PANAF/2020/420-028//European Commission/ ; }, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Lakes ; Seasons ; Africa, Eastern ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {This paper presents an analysis of future precipitation patterns over the Lake Victoria Basin, East Africa, using bias-corrected CMIP6 model projections. A mean increase of about 5% in mean annual (ANN) and seasonal [March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), and October-December (OND)] precipitation climatology is expected over the domain by mid-century (2040-2069). The changes intensify towards the end of the century (2070-2099) with an increase in mean precipitation of about 16% (ANN), 10% (MAM), and 18% (OND) expected, relative to the 1985-2014 baseline period. Additionally, the mean daily precipitation intensity (SDII), the maximum 5-day precipitation values (RX5Day), and the heavy precipitation events-represented by the width of the right tail distribution of precipitation (99p-90p)-show an increase of 16%, 29%, and 47%, respectively, by the end of the century. The projected changes have a substantial implication for the region-which is already experiencing conflicts over water and water-related resources.}, }
@article {pmid37321493, year = {2023}, author = {Vagheei, H and Laini, A and Vezza, P and Palau-Salvador, G and Boano, F}, title = {Climate change impact on the ecological status of rivers: The case of Albaida Valley (SE Spain).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {893}, number = {}, pages = {164645}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164645}, pmid = {37321493}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding the effects of environmental stressors (e.g., potential changes in climate and land use) on ecological status is essential for freshwater management. The ecological response of rivers to stressors can be evaluated by several physico-chemical, biological, and hydromorphological elements as well as computer tools. In this study, an ecohydrological model based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is used to investigate climate change impact on the ecological status of Albaida Valley Rivers. The predictions of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) each with four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are employed as input to the model for simulating several chemical and biological quality indicators (nitrate, ammonium, total phosphorus, and the IBMWP (Iberian Biological Monitoring Working Party) index) in three future periods (Near Future: 2025-2049, Mid Future: 2050-2074, and Far Future: 2075-2099). Based on chemical and biological status predicted with the model, the ecological status is determined at 14 representative sites. As a result of increased temperatures and decreased precipitations from most of GCMs projections, the model predicts decreased river discharge, increased concentrations of nutrients, and decreased values of IBMWP for future compared to the baseline period (2005-2017). While most representative sites have poor ecological status (10 sites with poor ecological status and four sites with bad ecological status) in the baseline, our model projects bad ecological status for most representative sites (four sites with poor ecological status and 10 sites with bad ecological status) under most emission scenarios in the future. It should be noted that the bad ecological status is projected for all 14 sites under the most extreme scenario (i.e., RCP8.5) in the Far Future. Despite the different emission scenarios, and all possible changes in water temperature and annual precipitation, our findings emphasize the urgent need for scientifically informed decisions to manage and preserve freshwaters.}, }
@article {pmid37321198, year = {2023}, author = {Patrick, R and Hensher, M and Suphioglu, C and Huxley, R}, title = {Asthma-The canary in the Australian coalmine: Making the links between climate change, fossil fuel and public health outcomes.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/hpja.756}, pmid = {37321198}, issn = {1036-1073}, }
@article {pmid37319129, year = {2023}, author = {Wasan, JPM and Wasan, KM}, title = {Effects of climate change on soil health resulting in an increased global spread of neglected tropical diseases.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {e0011378}, pmid = {37319129}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Soil ; Public Health ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Tropical Medicine ; Global Health ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Although it is commonly accepted that climate change will increase the range and abundance of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) through increased rainfall and temperature, the role of soil and influence of soil health on this effect is not well understood. We propose that understanding the influence of climate change on the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of soils can explain how favourable environmental conditions for NTDs and vectors of NTDs to reproduce form. This, in turn, can assist local public health experts in predicting and managing the spread of NTDs. We also suggest that unlike unpredictable climatic factors, soil health can be directly managed through appropriate land use practices. This viewpoint seeks to start a discussion between soil scientists and healthcare professionals on how to achieve common goals and strategies required to manage the spread of NTDs.}, }
@article {pmid37316472, year = {2023}, author = {Ghanbari, M and Arabi, M and Georgescu, M and Broadbent, AM}, title = {The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {3509}, pmid = {37316472}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {1444758//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Compound dry-hot extreme (CDHE) events pose greater risks to the environment, society, and human health than their univariate counterparts. Here, we project decadal-length changes in the frequency and duration of CDHE events for major U.S. cities during the 21st century. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to an urban canopy parameterization, we find a considerable increase in the frequency and duration of future CDHE events across all U.S. major cities under the compound effect of high-intensity GHG- and urban development-induced warming. Our results indicate that while GHG-induced warming is the primary driver of the increased frequency and duration of CDHE events, urban development amplifies this effect and should not be neglected. Furthermore, We show that the highest frequency amplification of major CDHE events is expected for U.S. cities across the Great Plains South, Southwest, and the southern part of the Northwest National Climate Assessment regions.}, }
@article {pmid37315612, year = {2023}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Aina, YA and Dinis, MAP and Purcell, W and Nagy, GJ}, title = {Climate change: Why higher education matters?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {892}, number = {}, pages = {164819}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164819}, pmid = {37315612}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Higher education (HE) matters to the global struggle to combat climate change. Research builds knowledge and informs climate solutions. Educational programmes and courses upskill current and future leaders and professionals to tackle the systems change and the transformation needed to improve society. Through their outreach and civic engagement work, HE helps people understand and address the climate change impacts, notably on under-resourced or marginalised people. By raising awareness of the problem and supporting capacity and capability building, HE encourages changes in attitudes and behaviours, focusing on adaptive change in preparing people to face the challenges of a changing climate. However, HE has yet to fully articulate its contribution towards climate change challenges, which means that organisational structures, curricula and research programmes do not reflect the interdisciplinary nature of the climate crisis. This paper describes the role of HE in supporting education and research efforts on climate change and outlines areas where further action is urgently needed. The study adds to the empirical research on HE's role in combating climate change and the role of cooperation in maximising the global effort to cope with a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid37315432, year = {2023}, author = {Alibudbud, R}, title = {Mental health service, training, promotion, and research during typhoons: Climate change experiences from the Philippines.}, journal = {Asian journal of psychiatry}, volume = {86}, number = {}, pages = {103673}, doi = {10.1016/j.ajp.2023.103673}, pmid = {37315432}, issn = {1876-2026}, mesh = {Humans ; Philippines ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Climate Change ; *Mental Health Services ; Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to mental health, potentially increasing the rates of mental health adversities and disorders. Therefore, mental health professionals, including psychiatrists, play a crucial role in addressing and mitigating these consequences. The Philippines, as a highly climate-vulnerable nation, serves as an exemplary case highlighting the roles these professionals can undertake in the climate change response, including providing services, engaging in education and training, promoting mental well-being, and conducting surveillance and research, such as studies exploring the causal relationship between mental health outcomes and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37312786, year = {2023}, author = {Raina, SK and Kumar, R}, title = {Is it "the conflict of interest" that is influencing our efforts on Climate change, tobacco control and primary care?.}, journal = {Journal of family medicine and primary care}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {601-602}, pmid = {37312786}, issn = {2249-4863}, abstract = {What seems to work against making climate change relevant, tobacco control necessary or primary care a felt need despite the efforts being claimed to the contrary? Emerging evidence points to a conflict of interest with academic institutions and academics fighting on both sides with clear support from the industry and others.}, }
@article {pmid37311958, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, S and Cai, W and Zhang, C and Chan Fung Fu-Chun, M and Gong, P}, title = {Focus on health for global adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {618}, number = {7965}, pages = {457}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-01913-1}, pmid = {37311958}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Humans ; *Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health/trends ; Global Warming ; *Goals ; Public Health/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid37311828, year = {2023}, author = {Ocklenburg, S}, title = {The positive effects of time spent in nature on stress: considering climate change.}, journal = {Molecular psychiatry}, volume = {28}, number = {8}, pages = {3169-3170}, pmid = {37311828}, issn = {1476-5578}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Nature ; *Stress, Psychological ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid37309951, year = {2023}, author = {Jin, YS and Jin, K and Wang, F and Liu, CX and Qin, P and Zong, QL and Liu, PR and Chen, ML}, title = {[Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on NDVI Change in Eastern Coastal Areas of China].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {3329-3342}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.202207039}, pmid = {37309951}, issn = {0250-3301}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; China ; Human Activities ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Based on the datasets of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation and the methods of trend, partial correlation, and residual analyses, this study explored the spatiotemporal variation in NDVI and its response to climate change from 1982 to 2019 in eastern coastal areas of China. Then, the effects of climate change and non-climatic factors (e.g., human activities) on NDVI trends were analyzed. The results showed that:① the NDVI trend varied greatly in different regions, stages, and seasons. On average, the growing season NDVI increased faster during 1982-2000 (stage I) than that during 2001-2019 (stage Ⅱ) in the study area. Moreover, NDVI in spring showed a more rapid increase than that in other seasons in both stages. ② For a given stage, the relationships between NDVI and each climatic factor varied in different seasons. For a given season, the major climatic factors associated with NDVI change were different between the two stages. The relationships between NDVI and each climatic factor showed great spatial differences in the study period. In general, the increase in growing season NDVI in the study area from 1982 to 2019 was closely related to the rapid warming. The increase in precipitation and solar radiation in stage Ⅱ also played a positive role. ③ In the past 38 years, climate change played a greater role in the change in growing season NDVI than non-climatic factors, including human activities. Whereas non-climatic factors dominated the increase in growing season NDVI during stage I, climate change played a major role during stage Ⅱ. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the impacts of various factors on vegetation cover variation during different periods to promote the understanding of terrestrial ecosystem changes.}, }
@article {pmid37308698, year = {2023}, author = {Hebbern, C and Gosselin, P and Chen, K and Chen, H and Cakmak, S and MacDonald, M and Chagnon, J and Dion, P and Martel, L and Lavigne, E}, title = {Future temperature-related excess mortality under climate change and population aging scenarios in Canada.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {114}, number = {5}, pages = {726-736}, pmid = {37308698}, issn = {1920-7476}, mesh = {Humans ; Temperature ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Aging ; Canada/epidemiology ; Mortality ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Climate change is expected to increase global temperatures. How temperature-related mortality risk will change is not completely understood, and how future demographic changes will affect temperature-related mortality needs to be clarified. We evaluate temperature-related mortality across Canada until 2099, accounting for age groups and scenarios of population growth.<br><br>METHODS: We used daily counts of non-accidental mortality for 2000 to 2015 for all 111 health regions across Canada, incorporating in the study both urban and rural areas. A two-part time series analysis was used to estimate associations between mean daily temperatures and mortality. First, current and future daily mean temperature time series simulations were developed from Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from past and projected climate change scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Next, excess mortality due to heat and cold and the net difference were projected to 2099, also accounting for different regional and population aging scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: For 2000 to 2015, we identified 3,343,311 non-accidental deaths. On average, a net increase of 17.31% (95% eCI: 13.99, 20.62) in temperature-related excess mortality under a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario is expected for Canada in 2090-2099, which represents a greater burden than a scenario that assumed strong levels of greenhouse gas mitigation policies (net increase of 3.29%; 95% eCI: 1.41, 5.17). The highest net increase was observed among people aged 65 and over, and the largest increases in both net and heat- and cold-related mortality were observed in population scenarios that incorporated the highest rates of aging.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Canada may expect net increases in temperature-related mortality under a higher emissions climate change scenario, compared to one assuming sustainable development. Urgent action is needed to mitigate future climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid37307438, year = {2023}, author = {Turco, M and Abatzoglou, JT and Herrera, S and Zhuang, Y and Jerez, S and Lucas, DD and AghaKouchak, A and Cvijanovic, I}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change impacts exacerbate summer forest fires in California.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {25}, pages = {e2213815120}, pmid = {37307438}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {RYC2019-027115-I//Spanish ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities/ ; PID2021-123193OB-I00//MCIN/AEI/ ; 847648//La Caixa Junior Leader Grant 2020/ ; RYC2020-029993-I//Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities/ ; }, abstract = {Record-breaking summer forest fires have become a regular occurrence in California. Observations indicate a fivefold increase in summer burned area (BA) in forests in northern and central California during 1996 to 2021 relative to 1971 to 1995. While the higher temperature and increased dryness have been suggested to be the leading causes of increased BA, the extent to which BA changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic climate change remains unresolved. Here, we develop a climate-driven model of summer BA evolution in California and combine it with natural-only and historical climate simulations to assess the importance of anthropogenic climate change on increased BA. Our results indicate that nearly all the observed increase in BA is due to anthropogenic climate change as historical model simulations accounting for anthropogenic forcing yield 172% (range 84 to 310%) more area burned than simulations with natural forcing only. We detect the signal of combined historical forcing on the observed BA emerging in 2001 with no detectable influence of the natural forcing alone. In addition, even when considering fuel limitations from fire-fuel feedbacks, a 3 to 52% increase in BA relative to the last decades is expected in the next decades (2031 to 2050), highlighting the need for proactive adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid37306569, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, C and Wu, F and Jiang, X and Hu, Y and Shao, K and Tang, X and Qin, B and Gao, G}, title = {Climate Change Causes Salinity To Become Determinant in Shaping the Microeukaryotic Spatial Distribution among the Lakes of the Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau.}, journal = {Microbiology spectrum}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e0317822}, pmid = {37306569}, issn = {2165-0497}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Lakes ; Climate Change ; Salinity ; China ; *Microbiota ; }, abstract = {Climate change greatly affects lake microorganisms in arid and semiarid zones, which alters ecosystem functions and the ecological security of lakes. However, the responses of lake microorganisms, especially microeukaryotes, to climate change are poorly understood. Here, using 18S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) high-throughput sequencing, we investigated the distribution patterns of microeukaryotic communities and whether and how climate change directly or indirectly affected the microeukaryotic communities on the Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau. Our results showed that climate change, as the main driving force of lake change, drives salinity to become a determinant of the microeukaryotic community among the lakes of the Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau. Salinity shapes the diversity and trophic level of the microeukaryotic community and further affects lake carbon cycling. Co-occurrence network analysis further revealed that increasing salinity reduced the complexity but improved the stability of microeukaryotic communities and changed ecological relationships. Meanwhile, increasing salinity enhanced the importance of deterministic processes in microeukaryotic community assembly, and the dominance of stochastic processes in freshwater lakes transformed into deterministic processes in salt lakes. Furthermore, we established lake biomonitoring and climate sentinel models by integrating microeukaryotic information, which would provide substantial improvements to our predictive ability of lake responses to climate change. IMPORTANCE Our findings have important implications for understanding the distribution patterns and the driving mechanisms of microeukaryotic communities among the lakes of the Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau and whether and how climate change directly or indirectly affects microeukaryotic communities. Our study also establishes the groundwork to use the lake microbiome for the assessment of aquatic ecological health and climate change, which is critical for ecosystem management and for projecting the ecological consequences of future climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid37305907, year = {2023}, author = {Rollins-Smith, LA and Le Sage, EH}, title = {Heat stress and amphibian immunity in a time of climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {1882}, pages = {20220132}, pmid = {37305907}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Amphibians ; *Climate Change ; Heat-Shock Response ; Introduced Species ; Knowledge ; Mammals ; }, abstract = {As a class of vertebrates, amphibians, are at greater risk for declines or extinctions than any other vertebrate group, including birds and mammals. There are many threats, including habitat destruction, invasive species, overuse by humans, toxic chemicals and emerging diseases. Climate change which brings unpredictable temperature changes and rainfall constitutes an additional threat. Survival of amphibians depends on immune defences functioning well under these combined threats. Here, we review the current state of knowledge of how amphibians respond to some natural stressors, including heat and desiccation stress, and the limited studies of the immune defences under these stressful conditions. In general, the current studies suggest that desiccation and heat stress can activate the hypothalamus pituitary-interrenal axis, with possible suppression of some innate and lymphocyte-mediated responses. Elevated temperatures can alter microbial communities in amphibian skin and gut, resulting in possible dysbiosis that fosters reduced resistance to pathogens. This article is part of the theme issue 'Amphibian immunity: stress, disease and ecoimmunology'.}, }
@article {pmid37305648, year = {2023}, author = {Ogunkunbi, GA and Meszaros, F}, title = {Preferences for policy measures to regulate urban vehicle access for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental sciences Europe}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {42}, pmid = {37305648}, issn = {2190-4707}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: In cognisance of the urgent need to decarbonise the transport sector to limit its impact on climate change and to internalise other negative transport externalities, regulating vehicle access in urban areas is essential. However, urban areas often struggle to implement these regulations due to concerns relating to social acceptability, heterogeneity of citizen preferences, lack of information on preferred measure attributes, and other factors that can boost the acceptance of urban vehicle access regulations. This study explores the acceptability and willingness to support Urban Vehicle Access Regulations (UVAR) in Budapest, Hungary to reduce transportation emissions and promote sustainable urban mobility. Using a structured questionnaire, which includes a choice-based conjoint exercise, the study finds that 42% of respondents were willing to support a car-free policy measure. Results were analysed to elicit preferences for specific UVAR measure attributes, identify population subgroups, and assess factors influencing willingness to support UVAR implementation. Access fee and proportion of revenue earmarked for transport development were the most important attributes to respondents. The study also identified three distinct subgroups of respondents with differing preferences, which could be characterised based on access to passenger cars, age, and employment status. The findings suggest that for effective UVAR, access fees for non-compliant vehicles should be excluded from measure designs, and the attribute preference approach highlights the importance of considering the heterogeneity of residents' preferences in UVAR measure planning.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12302-023-00745-0.}, }
@article {pmid37304707, year = {2023}, author = {Tripodi, P and Singh, NK and Abberton, M and Nankar, AN}, title = {Editorial: Enhancing allele mining for crop improvement amid the emerging challenge of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1197086}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2023.1197086}, pmid = {37304707}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid37304361, year = {2023}, author = {de Oliveira, GL and Viana-Junior, AB and Trindade, PHS and Dos Santos, IR and de Almeida-Maués, PCR and Carvalho, FG and Silva, DP and Wiig, &#xd8; and Sena, L and Mendes-Oliveira, AC}, title = {Wild canids and the ecological traps facing the climate change and deforestation in the Amazon Forest.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {e10150}, pmid = {37304361}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Ecological traps occur when species choose to settle in lower-quality habitats, even if this reduces their survival or productivity. This happens in situations of drastic environmental changes, resulting from anthropogenic pressures. In long term, this could mean the extinction of the species. We investigated the dynamics of occurrence and distribution of three canid species (Atelocynus microtis, Cerdocyon thous, and Spheotos venaticus) considering human threats to their habitats in the Amazon Rainforest. We analyzed the environmental thresholds for the occurrence of these species and related to the future projections of climatic niches for each one. All three species will be negatively affected by climate change in the future, with losses of up to 91% of the suitable area of occurrence in the Brazilian Amazon. A. microtis appear to be more forest-dependent and must rely on the goodwill of decision-makers to be maintained in the future. For C. thous and S. venaticus, climatic variables and those associated with anthropogenic disturbances that modulate their niches today may not act the same way in the future. Even though C. thous is least dependent on the Amazon Forest; this species may be affected in the future due to the ecological traps. S. venaticus, can also undergo the same process, but perhaps more drastically due to the lower ecological plasticity of this species compared to C. thous. Our results suggest that the ecological traps may put these two species at risk in the future. Using the canid species as a model, we had the opportunity to investigate these ecological effects that can affect a large part of the Amazonian fauna in the current scenario. Considering the high degree of environmental degradation and deforestation in the Amazon Rainforest, the theory of ecological traps must be discussed at the same level as the habitat loss, considering the strategies for preserving the Amazon biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid37304117, year = {2023}, author = {Barteit, S and Sié, A and Zabré, P and Traoré, I and Ouédraogo, WA and Boudo, V and Munga, S and Khagayi, S and Obor, D and Muok, E and Franke, J and Schwarz, M and Blass, K and Su, TT and Bärnighausen, T and Sankoh, O and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Widening the lens of population-based health research to climate change impacts and adaptation: the climate change and health evaluation and response system (CHEERS).}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1153559}, pmid = {37304117}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Research Design ; Activities of Daily Living ; Africa ; Algorithms ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change significantly impacts health in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), exacerbating vulnerabilities. Comprehensive data for evidence-based research and decision-making is crucial but scarce. Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites (HDSSs) in Africa and Asia provide a robust infrastructure with longitudinal population cohort data, yet they lack climate-health specific data. Acquiring this information is essential for understanding the burden of climate-sensitive diseases on populations and guiding targeted policies and interventions in LMICs to enhance mitigation and adaptation capacities.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The objective of this research is to develop and implement the Change and Health Evaluation and Response System (CHEERS) as a methodological framework, designed to facilitate the generation and ongoing monitoring of climate change and health-related data within existing Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites (HDSSs) and comparable research infrastructures.<br><br>METHODS: CHEERS uses a multi-tiered approach to assess health and environmental exposures at the individual, household, and community levels, utilizing digital tools such as wearable devices, indoor temperature and humidity measurements, remotely sensed satellite data, and 3D-printed weather stations. The CHEERS framework utilizes a graph database to efficiently manage and analyze diverse data types, leveraging graph algorithms to understand the complex interplay between health and environmental exposures.<br><br>RESULTS: The Nouna CHEERS site, established in 2022, has yielded significant preliminary findings. By using remotely-sensed data, the site has been able to predict crop yield at a household level in Nouna and explore the relationships between yield, socioeconomic factors, and health outcomes. The feasibility and acceptability of wearable technology have been confirmed in rural Burkina Faso for obtaining individual-level data, despite the presence of technical challenges. The use of wearables to study the impact of extreme weather on health has shown significant effects of heat exposure on sleep and daily activity, highlighting the urgent need for interventions to mitigate adverse health consequences.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Implementing the CHEERS in research infrastructures can advance climate change and health research, as large and longitudinal datasets have been scarce for LMICs. This data can inform health priorities, guide resource allocation to address climate change and health exposures, and protect vulnerable communities in LMICs from these exposures.}, }
@article {pmid37303264, year = {2023}, author = {Upward, K and Usher, K and Saunders, V}, title = {The impact of climate change on country and community and the role of mental health professionals working with Aboriginal communities in recovery and promoting resilience.}, journal = {International journal of mental health nursing}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {1484-1495}, doi = {10.1111/inm.13184}, pmid = {37303264}, issn = {1447-0349}, support = {APP 1201667//Medical Research Futures Fund (MRFF) Bushfires Grant/ ; }, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Culture ; Emotions ; *Health Services, Indigenous ; *Mental Health ; Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples ; }, abstract = {This paper emerged from discussions between the authors about our shared and different perspectives of climate change and its impact on the social, emotional, physical, spiritual and cultural wellbeing of Aboriginal Peoples and mental health services in a rural region, heavily impacted in recent years by bushfires and floods. Here we discuss, from the lead authors personal perspective as a Gamilaraay Woman, the experience of Solastalgia as a critical impact of climate change on wellbeing. Specifically, we discuss the relationship of a connection to country from a Gamilaraay, first person perspective through a series of diary entries from the lead author. Authors are researchers from different cultural backgrounds, connected through a medical research futures fund research project, to promote resilience within Aboriginal communities and the health services sector in the New England, North West region. The lead author has cultural connections to some of the communities we work with and our work is informed by these connections. While this paper was written to express an Aboriginal perspective on climate change and wellbeing, it reflects our shared perspectives of how disasters such as bushfires impact the wellbeing of Aboriginal peoples. We also explore the connection between the impact of localised, recurring natural disasters and the increasing demands on mental health services in regional and rural areas and discuss what this means with Aboriginal and non-Indigenous mental health nurses and researchers working in regional and rural areas where access to mental health services often poses considerable challenges. From our perspective, mental health research and nursing play an important role in walking alongside Aboriginal Peoples as we explore, respond and create resilience to the ever-present influence that climate change is having on our lives, communities, country and workplaces.}, }
@article {pmid37303045, year = {2023}, author = {de Moura Brito Júnior, V and de Magalhães, HF and Albuquerque, UP}, title = {Perception of health risks in contexts of extreme climate change in semiarid Northeastern Brazil: an analysis of the role of socioeconomic variables.}, journal = {Journal of ethnobiology and ethnomedicine}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {24}, pmid = {37303045}, issn = {1746-4269}, mesh = {Humans ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Perception ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global climate change poses a significant challenge in contemporary society, particularly affecting vulnerable populations like small farmers residing in arid and semiarid regions. This study aims to investigate the perception of health risks and adaptive responses in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB). Four questions were formulated: (1) How do socioeconomic factors influence the perception of health risks during extreme climate events? (2) How do socioeconomic factors impact the adoption of adaptive responses to mitigate health risks during extreme weather events? (3) How does the perceived risk level affect the utilization of adaptive responses? (4) What is the influence of extreme climate events on the perceived risks and the adoption of adaptive responses?<br><br>METHOD: The research was conducted in the rural community of Car&#xe3;o, situated in the Agreste region of the State of Pernambuco, NEB. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 49 volunteers aged 18 and above. The interviews aimed to gather socioeconomic information, including sex, age, income, access to healthcare services, family size, and education level. Additionally, the interviews explored the perceived risks and responses employed during different extreme climate events such as droughts or heavy rainfall. The perceived risks and adaptive responses data were quantified to address the research questions. Generalized linear models were employed to analyze the data for the first three questions, while the nonparametric Mann-Whitney test was used for the fourth question.<br><br>RESULTS: The study found no significant differences in the level of perceived risk and adaptive responses between the two climate extremes. However, the quantity of adaptive responses was found to be directly influenced by the perceived risks, regardless of the type of extreme climate event.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The study concludes that risk perception is influenced by various complex factors, including socioeconomic variables, and plays a critical role in the adoption of adaptive responses during extreme climate events. The findings suggest that specific socioeconomic variables have a more pronounced influence on how individuals perceive and adapt to risks. Furthermore, the results indicate a cause-and-effect relationship between perceived risks and the generation of adaptive responses. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the factors shaping risk perception and provide valuable insights for future studies in regions prone to extreme climate events.}, }
@article {pmid37303015, year = {2023}, author = {Işık, C and Ongan, S and Ahmad, M and Alvarado, R}, title = {Special issue on green energy, innovation, government spending, sustainable tourism &amp; production under climate change and pollution (ENTECON)-environmental science and pollution research.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {34}, pages = {81493-81494}, pmid = {37303015}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Science ; Tourism ; Economic Development ; Environmental Pollution ; China ; Carbon Dioxide ; }, }
@article {pmid37302741, year = {2023}, author = {Oka, K and Honda, Y and Phung, VLH and Hijioka, Y}, title = {Prediction of climate change impacts on heatstroke cases in Japan's 47 prefectures with the effect of long-term heat adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {232}, number = {}, pages = {116390}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.116390}, pmid = {37302741}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; Climate Change ; *Thermotolerance ; Japan/epidemiology ; Hot Temperature ; *Heat Stroke/epidemiology/etiology ; *Greenhouse Gases ; }, abstract = {One of the negative consequences of increased air temperatures due to global warming is the associated increase in heat-related mortality and morbidity. Studies that focused on future predictions of heat-related morbidity do not consider the effect of long-term heat adaptation measures, nor do they use evidence-based methods. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the future heatstroke cases for all 47 prefectures of Japan, by considering long-term heat adaptation by translating current geographical differences in heat adaptation to future temporal heat adaptation. Predictions were conducted for age groups of 7-17, 18-64, and ≥65 years. The prediction period was set to a base period (1981-2000), mid-21st century (2031-2050), and the end of the 21st century (2081-2100). We found that the average heatstroke incidence (number of patients with heatstroke transported by ambulance per population) in Japan under five representative climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios increased by 2.92- for 7-17 years, 3.66- for 18-64 years, and 3.26-fold for ≥65 years at the end of the 21st century without heat adaptation. The corresponding numbers were 1.57 for 7-17 years, 1.77 for 18-64 years, and 1.69 for ≥65 years with heat adaptation. Furthermore, the average number of patients with heatstroke transported by ambulance (NPHTA) under all climate models and GHG emissions scenarios increased by 1.02- for 7-17 years, 1.76- for 18-64 years, and 5.50-fold for ≥65 years at the end of 21st century without heat adaptation, where demographic changes were considered. The corresponding numbers were 0.55 for 7-17 years, 0.82 for 18-64 years, and 2.74 for ≥65 years with heat adaptation. The heatstroke incidence, as well as the NPHTA, substantially decreased when heat adaptation was considered. Our method could be applicable to other regions across the globe.}, }
@article {pmid37302377, year = {2023}, author = {Ramlall, I}, title = {Should central banks manage climate change risk via a CO2 emissions augmented Taylor rule? Evidence using a DSGE approach.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {343}, number = {}, pages = {117989}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117989}, pmid = {37302377}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; Policy ; *Environmental Pollutants ; }, abstract = {The detrimental effects of climate change are becoming pressingly apparent over the decades with policy-makers clumsily grappling with various policies to mitigate on its impacts on their respective economies. However, inefficiencies permeate in the implementation of these policies as they are being implemented only at the end of the process of economic activities. To resolve such a problem, this paper develops an innovative and novel approach to internalize CO2 emissions by proposing a ramified Taylor rule which captures a climate change premium, the level of which is directly dependent on the extent of deviation of actual CO2 emissions from its targeted level. The key benefits of the proposed tool are that not only effectiveness level is being bolstered by applying the tool right at the start of the process of economic activities but also that funds collected out of such a climate change premium could empower governments worldwide to vigorously green their economies. The model is tested for a given economy using the DSGE approach with findings attesting to the effectiveness of the proposed tool in curtailing the level CO2 emissions, independent of the type of monetary shock under scrutiny. Most importantly, depending on the extent of aggressiveness in mitigating the pollutants level, the parameter weight coefficient can be fine-tuned accordingly.}, }
@article {pmid37301858, year = {2023}, author = {Nissan, A and Alcolombri, U and Peleg, N and Galili, N and Jimenez-Martinez, J and Molnar, P and Holzner, M}, title = {Global warming accelerates soil heterotrophic respiration.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {3452}, pmid = {37301858}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Soil ; Heterotrophic Processes ; Temperature ; Respiration ; Carbon ; Ecosystem ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Carbon efflux from soils is the largest terrestrial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet it is still one of the most uncertain fluxes in the Earth's carbon budget. A dominant component of this flux is heterotrophic respiration, influenced by several environmental factors, most notably soil temperature and moisture. Here, we develop a mechanistic model from micro to global scale to explore how changes in soil water content and temperature affect soil heterotrophic respiration. Simulations, laboratory measurements, and field observations validate the new approach. Estimates from the model show that heterotrophic respiration has been increasing since the 1980s at a rate of about 2% per decade globally. Using future projections of surface temperature and soil moisture, the model predicts a global increase of about 40% in heterotrophic respiration by the end of the century under the worst-case emission scenario, where the Arctic region is expected to experience a more than two-fold increase, driven primarily by declining soil moisture rather than temperature increase.}, }
@article {pmid37301397, year = {2023}, author = {Şenol, O and Sulukan, E and Baran, A and Bolat, &#x130; and Toraman, E and Alak, G and Yildirim, S and Bilgin, G and Ceyhun, SB}, title = {Global warming and nanoplastic toxicity; small temperature increases can make gill and liver toxicity more dramatic, which affects fillet quality caused by polystyrene nanoplastics in the adult zebrafish model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {892}, number = {}, pages = {164682}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164682}, pmid = {37301397}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Polystyrenes/toxicity/metabolism ; Microplastics/toxicity/metabolism ; Zebrafish/physiology ; Gills/metabolism ; Temperature ; Global Warming ; *Nanoparticles/toxicity ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity/metabolism ; Liver/metabolism ; Lipids ; }, abstract = {Increasing nanoplastics (NPs) pollution may lead to unknown environmental risks when considered together with climate change, which has the potential to become an increasingly important environmental issue in the coming decades. In this context, the present study aimed to evaluate the stressor modelling of polystyrene nanoplastic (PS-NPs) combined with temperature increase in zebrafish. For this purpose, changes in gill, liver and muscle tissues of zebrafish exposed to PS-NPs (25 ppm) and/or different temperatures (28, 29 and 30 °C) for 96 h under static conditions were evaluated. The results obtained emphasize that exposure to PS-NPs stressors under controlled conditions with temperature increase induces DNA damage through stress-induced responses accompanied by degeneration, necrosis and hyperaemia in zebrafish liver and adhesion of lamellae, desquamation and inflammation in lamellar epithelium in gills. Metabolomic analyses also supported changes indicating protein and lipid oxidation, especially PS-NPs-mediated. These findings will contribute to the literature as key data on the effects of PS-NPs presence on protein/lipid oxidation and fillet quality in muscle tissues.}, }
@article {pmid37299085, year = {2023}, author = {Monteiro, WP and de Souza, EB and Miranda, LS and Anjos, LJS and Caldeira, CF}, title = {Potential Distribution of Pilocarpus microphyllus in the Amazonia/Cerrado Biomes under Near-Future Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {37299085}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Pilocarpus microphyllus Stapf. ex Wardlew. (Rutaceae) is an endemic and threatened medicinal plant species from tropical Brazil. Popularly known as "jaborandi", it is the unique natural source of pilocarpine, an alkaloid used to medical treat glaucoma and xerostomia. Based on Species Distribution Models (SDMs), we modeled the suitability of P. microphyllus's geographical distribution considering three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two future climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The quantitative analyses carried out using ten different SDM algorithms revealed that precipitation seasonality (Bio15) and precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) were the most important bioclimatic variables. The results evidenced four main key areas of continuous occurrence of the plant spreading diagonally over tropical Brazilian biomes (Amazon, Cerrado and Caatinga). The near-future (2020 to 2040) ensemble projections considering all GCMs and scenarios have indicated negative impacts for the potential loss or significant reduction in suitable habitats for P. microphyllus in the transition region between the Amazon and Cerrado into central and northern Maranhão state, and mainly in the Caatinga biome over the northern Piaui state. On the other hand, positive impacts of the expansion of the plant habitat suitability are projected over forest cover protected areas of the Amazon biome in the southeastern Pará state. Since the jaborandi is of socioeconomic importance for many families in the north/northeast Brazil, it is urgent to implement public policies for conservation and sustainable management, thus mitigating the impacts of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37299051, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, Y and Shen, X and Zhang, J and Wang, Y and Wu, L and Ma, R and Lu, X and Jiang, M}, title = {Variation in Vegetation Phenology and Its Response to Climate Change in Marshes of Inner Mongolian.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {37299051}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {41971065//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Inner Mongolia has a large area of marsh wetland in China, and the marsh in this region is important for maintaining ecological balance. Understanding variations in vegetation phenology of marsh ecosystems and their responses to climatic change is crucial for vegetation conservation of marsh wetlands in Inner Mongolia. Using the climate and NDVI data during 2001-2020, we explored the spatiotemporal changes in the start (SOS), end (EOS), and length (LOS) of vegetation growing season and analyzed the effects of climate change on vegetation phenology in the Inner Mongolia marshes. Results showed that SOS significantly (p < 0.05) advanced by 0.50 days/year, EOS significantly delayed by 0.38 days/year, and thus LOS considerably increased by 0.88 days/year during 2001-2020 in marshes of Inner Mongolia. Warming temperatures in winter and spring could significantly (p < 0.05) advance the SOS, and increased summer and autumn temperatures could delay EOS in Inner Mongolia marshes. We found for the first time that daytime maximum temperature (Tmax) and night minimum temperature (Tmin) had asymmetric effects on marsh vegetation phenology. Increasing Tmax had a stronger advancing effect on SOS than increasing Tmin from December to April. The increase of Tmin in August could obviously delayed EOS, while increasing Tmax in August had no significant effect on EOS. This study highlights that the asymmetric influences of nighttime and daytime temperatures should be taken into account in simulating marsh vegetation phenology in temperate arid and semi-arid regions worldwide, particularly in the context of global asymmetric diurnal warming.}, }
@article {pmid37299047, year = {2023}, author = {Modina, D and Cola, G and Bianchi, D and Bolognini, M and Mancini, S and Foianini, I and Cappelletti, A and Failla, O and Brancadoro, L}, title = {Alpine Viticulture and Climate Change: Environmental Resources and Limitations for Grapevine Ripening in Valtellina, Italy.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {37299047}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {The effects of the spatial and temporal variability of environmental factors on viticulture are particularly important in mountainous wine regions due to their complex geomorphology. A typical example is Valtellina, an Italian valley in the middle of the Alpine chain known for its wine production. The aim of this work was to assess the effects of the current climatic conditions on Alpine viticultural production by evaluating the relationship between sugar accumulation, acid degradation, and environmental factors. To achieve this objective, a 21-year time series of ripening curves from 15 vineyards (cv Nebbiolo) along the Valtellina wine-growing belt was collected. The ripening curves were then analysed in conjunction with meteorological data to assess the influence of geographical and climatic characteristics, as well as other limiting environmental factors, on grape ripening. Valtellina is currently characterised by a stable warm phase, with yearly precipitation slightly higher than in the past. In this context, the timing of ripening and the level of total acidity are correlated with altitude, temperature, and summer thermal excess. Precipitation shows good correlations with all the maturity indices, so higher precipitation leads to late ripening and higher total acidity. Considering the oenological goal of local wineries, the results suggest that the Alpine area of Valtellina is currently facing favourable environmental conditions, with early development and increased levels of sugar while maintaining good levels of acidity.}, }
@article {pmid37295582, year = {2023}, author = {Mandal, S and Anand, U and López-Bucio, J and Radha,  and Kumar, M and Lal, MK and Tiwari, RK and Dey, A}, title = {Biostimulants and environmental stress mitigation in crops: A novel and emerging approach for agricultural sustainability under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {233}, number = {}, pages = {116357}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.116357}, pmid = {37295582}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Agriculture ; Crops, Agricultural ; Soil ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Pesticide and fertilizer usage is at the center of agricultural production to meet the demands of an ever-increasing global population. However, rising levels of chemicals impose a serious threat to the health of humans, animals, plants, and even the entire biosphere because of their toxic effects. Biostimulants offer the opportunity to reduce the agricultural chemical footprint owing their multilevel, beneficial properties helping to make agriculture more sustainable and resilient. When applied to plants or to the soil an increased absorption and distribution of nutrients, tolerance to environmental stress, and improved quality of plant products explain the mechanisms by which these probiotics are useful. In recent years, the use of plant biostimulants has received widespread attention across the globe as an ecologically acceptable alternative to sustainable agricultural production. As a result, their worldwide market continues to grow, and further research will be conducted to broaden the range of the products now available. Through this review, we present a current understanding of biostimulants, their mode of action and their involvement in modulating abiotic stress responses, including omics research, which may provide a comprehensive assessment of the crop's response by correlating molecular changes to physiological pathways activated under stress conditions aggravated by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37294468, year = {2023}, author = {Kumar, M and Rani, K}, title = {Epigenomics in stress tolerance of plants under the climate change.}, journal = {Molecular biology reports}, volume = {50}, number = {7}, pages = {6201-6216}, pmid = {37294468}, issn = {1573-4978}, mesh = {*Histones/genetics/metabolism ; *Epigenomics ; Climate Change ; Plant Breeding ; DNA Methylation/genetics ; Epigenesis, Genetic ; Chromatin ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics ; RNA/metabolism ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has had a tremendous impact on the environment in general as well as agricultural crops grown in these situations as time passed. Agricultural production of crops is less suited and of lower quality due to disturbances in plant metabolism brought on by sensitivity to environmental stresses, which are brought on by climate change. Abiotic stressors that are specific to climate change, including as drought, extremes in temperature, increasing CO2, waterlogging from heavy rain, metal toxicity, and pH changes, are known to negatively affect an array of species. Plants adapt to these challenges by undergoing genome-wide epigenetic changes, which are frequently accompanied by differences in transcriptional gene expression. The sum of a cell's biochemical modifications to its nuclear DNA, post-translational modifications to histones, and variations in the synthesis of non-coding RNAs is called an epigenome. These modifications frequently lead to variations in gene expression that occur without any alteration in the underlying base sequence.<br><br>The methylation of homologous loci by three different modifications-genomic (DNA methylation), chromatin (histone modifications), and RNA-directed DNA methylation (RdDM)-could be regarded as epigenetic mechanisms that control the regulation of differential gene expression. Stresses from the environment cause chromatin remodelling, which enables plant cells to adjust their expression patterns temporarily or permanently. EPIGENOMICS' CONSEQUENCES FOR GENOME STABILITY AND GENE EXPRESSION: DNA methylation affects gene expression in response to abiotic stressors by blocking or suppressing transcription. Environmental stimuli cause changes in DNA methylation levels, either upward in the case of hypermethylation or downward in the case of hypomethylation. The type of stress response that occurs as a result also affects the degree of DNA methylation alterations. Stress is also influenced by DRM2 and CMT3 methylating CNN, CNG, and CG. Both plant development and stress reactions depend on histone changes. Gene up-regulation is associated with histone tail phosphorylation, ubiquitination, and acetylation, while gene down-regulation is associated with de-acetylation and biotinylation. Plants undergo a variety of dynamic changes to histone tails in response to abiotic stressors. The relevance of these transcripts against stress is highlighted by the accumulation of numerous additional antisense transcripts, a source of siRNAs, caused by abiotic stresses. The study highlights the finding that plants can be protected from a range of abiotic stresses by epigenetic mechanisms such DNA methylation, histone modification, and RNA-directed DNA methylation. TRANSGENERATIONAL INHERITANCE AND SOURCES OF EPIGENETIC VARIATION: Stress results in the formation of epialleles, which are either transient or enduring epigenetic stress memory in plants. After the stress is gone, the stable memory is kept for the duration of the plant's remaining developmental cycles or passed on to the next generations, leading to plant evolution and adaptability. The bulk of epigenetic changes brought on by stress are temporary and return to normal after the stress has passed. Some of the modifications, however, might be long-lasting and transmitted across mitotic or even meiotic cell divisions. Epialleles often have genetic or non-genetic causes. Epialleles can arise spontaneously due to improper methylation state maintenance, short RNA off-target effects, or other non-genetic causes. Developmental or environmental variables that influence the stability of epigenetic states or direct chromatin modifications may also be non-genetic drivers of epigenetic variation. Transposon insertions that change local chromatin and structural rearrangements, such copy number changes that are genetically related or unrelated, are two genetic sources of epialleles.<br><br>To include epigenetics into crop breeding, it is necessary to create epigenetic variation as well as to identify and evaluate epialleles. Epigenome editing or epi-genomic selection may be required for epiallele creation and identification. In order to combat the challenges given by changing environments, these epigenetic mechanisms have generated novel epialleles that can be exploited to develop new crop types that are more climate-resilient. Numerous techniques can be used to alter the epigenome generally or at specific target loci in order to induce the epigenetic alterations necessary for crop development. Technologies like CRISPR/Cas9 and dCas, which have recently advanced, have opened up new avenues for the study of epigenetics. Epialleles could be employed in epigenomics-assisted breeding in addition to sequence-based markers for crop breeding.<br><br>A few of the exciting questions that still need to be resolved in the area of heritable epigenetic variation include a better understanding of the epigenetic foundation of characteristics, the stability and heritability of epialleles, and the sources of epigenetic variation in crops. Investigating long intergenic non-coding RNAs (lincRNAs) as an epigenetic process might open up a new path to understanding crop plant's ability to withstand abiotic stress. For many of these technologies and approaches to be more applicable and deployable at a lower cost, technological breakthroughs will also be necessary. Breeders will probably need to pay closer attention to crop epialleles and how they can affect future responses to climate changes. The development of epialleles suitable for particular environmental circumstances may be made possible by creating targeted epigenetic changes in pertinent genes and by comprehending the molecular underpinnings of trans generational epigenetic inheritance. More research on a wider variety of plant species is required in order to fully comprehend the mechanisms that produce and stabilise epigenetic variation in crops. In addition to a collaborative and multidisciplinary effort by researchers in many fields of plant science, this will require a greater integration of the epigenomic data gathered in many crops. Before it may be applied generally, more study is required.}, }
@article {pmid37294360, year = {2023}, author = {Gade, SA and Khedkar, DD}, title = {Implication of climate change on crop water requirement in the semi-arid region of Western Maharashtra, India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {7}, pages = {829}, pmid = {37294360}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Plant Transpiration ; India ; Environmental Monitoring ; Crops, Agricultural ; Edible Grain ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change and human activities have massively impacted the hydrological cycle. Thus, it is of the greatest concern to examine the effect of climate change on water management, especially at the regional level, to understand the possible future shifts in water supply and water-related crises and support regional water management. Fortunately, there is a high degree of ambiguity in determining the effect of climate change on water requirements. In this paper, the statistical downscaling (SDSM) model is applied to simulate the potential impact of climate on crop water requirements (CWR) by downscaling ET0 in the region of Western Maharashtra, India, for the future periods, viz., the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, across three meteorological stations (Pune, Rahuri, and Solapur). Four crops, i.e., cotton, soybean, onion, and sugarcane, were selected during the analysis. The Penman-Monteith equation calculates reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0). Furthermore, in conjunction with the crop coefficient (Kc) equation, it calculates crop evapotranspiration (ETc)/CWR. The predictor variables were extracted from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for 1961-2000 and the HadCM3 for 1961-2099 under the H3A2 and H3B2 scenarios. The results indicated by SDSM profound good applicability in downscaling due to satisfactory performance during calibration and validation for all three stations. The projected ET0 indicated an increase in mean annual ET0 compared to the present condition during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s. The ET0 would increase for all months (in summer, winter, and pre-monsoon seasons) and decrease from June to September (monsoon season). The estimated future CWR shows variation in the range for cotton (- 0.97 to 2.48%), soybean (- 2.09 to 1.63%), onion (0.49 to 4.62%), and sugarcane (0.05 to 2.86%). The significance of this research lies in its contribution to understanding the potential impacts of climate change at a regional level. This study provides valuable insights into the expected changes in water demand for key crops. The research also manifests implementing an identical methodology for downscaling other environmental parameters using a similar approach.}, }
@article {pmid37292263, year = {2023}, author = {Shen, C and Wu, R}, title = {Analyzing nonlinear contributions from climate change and anthropogenic activity to the normalized difference vegetation index across China using a locally weighted regression approach.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e16694}, pmid = {37292263}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Nonlinear contributions from climate change and anthropogenic activity to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are analyzed to better understand the mechanisms underlying the nonlinear response of vegetation growth. In this study, it was hypothesized that NDVI dynamics on a nonlinear trajectory could track fluctuations of climate change and anthropogenic activity. Contributions from climate change and anthropogenic activity to NDVI were quantified using a locally weighted regression approach based on monthly timescale datasets. The findings showed that: 1) Vegetation cover fluctuated and increased in 81% of regions in China from 2000 to 2019. 2) The average predicted nonlinear contribution (APNC) of anthropogenic activity to NDVI was positive in China. The temperature APNC was positive in most of China but negative in Yunnan, where high temperatures and asynchronous temporal changes in temperature and NDVI were observed. The precipitation APNC was positive in the north of the Yangtze River, where precipitation is insufficient; but negative in South China, where precipitation is plentiful. Anthropogenic activity had the highest magnitude among the three nonlinear contributions, followed by temperature and precipitation. 3) The regions with contribution rates of anthropogenic activity greater than 80% were mainly distributed in the central Loess Plateau, North China Plain, and South China, while the areas with contribution rates of climate change greater than 80% were mainly concentrated in the northeastern QTP, Yunnan, and Northeast China. 4) The high temperature, drought, and asynchronous temporal changes in temperature, precipitation, and NDVI caused the negative average of changing trends in the predicted nonlinear contribution (PNC) of climate change to NDVI. Deforestation, land cover change, and grazing/fencing led to the negative average of changing trends in PNC from anthropogenic activity. These findings deepen our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the nonlinear responses of vegetation growth to climate change and anthropogenic activity.}, }
@article {pmid37291341, year = {2023}, author = {Usman, M and Ali, A and Bashir, MK and Radulescu, M and Mushtaq, K and Wudil, AH and Baig, SA and Akram, R}, title = {Do farmers' risk perception, adaptation strategies, and their determinants benefit towards climate change? Implications for agriculture sector of Punjab, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {33}, pages = {79861-79882}, pmid = {37291341}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; *Farmers ; *Climate Change ; Pakistan ; Agriculture/methods ; Crops, Agricultural ; Soil ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Due to global and regional climatic dynamics for a couple of decades, agricultural productivity, rural livelihood, and food security have been badly affected in Pakistan. This study was conducted in Punjab, Pakistan, to explore the farmers' understanding of the impacts of climate change, adaptation strategies, determinants, and benefits on agriculture using data from 1080 respondents. Perceived risks by the farmers in the rice-wheat cropping system and the cotton-wheat cropping system were weed infestation, seed rate augmented, low-quality seeds, infestation of crop diseases and pests, change of cropping pattern, increase of input use, decrease of cropping intensity and productivity, decreasing soil fertility, increasing irrigation frequency, and increase of harvesting time. To alleviate the adverse influences of climate change, the adaptation strategies used by farmers were management of crop and variety, soil and irrigation water, diversification of agriculture production systems and livelihood sources, management of fertilizer and farm operations time, spatial adaptation, access to risk reduction measures and financial assets, adoption of new technologies, institutional support, and indigenous knowledge. Moreover, the results of Binary Logistic Regression indicate that adaptation strategies are affected by different factors like age, education, household family size, off-farm income, remittances, credit access, information on climatic and natural hazards, information on weather forecasting, land acreage, the experience of growing crops and rearing of livestock, tenancy status, tube well ownership, livestock inventory, access to market information, agricultural extension services, and distance from agricultural input/output market. There is a significant difference between adapters and nonadapters. The risk management system may be created to protect crops against failures caused by extreme weather events. There is a need to develop crop varieties that are both high yielding and resistant to climate change. Moreover, cropping patterns should be revised to combat the effects of climate change. To enhance farmers' standard of living, it is necessary to provide adequate extension services and a more significant number of investment facilities. These measures will assist farmers in maintaining their standard of living and food security over the long term to adapt to the effects of climate change based on various cropping zones.}, }
@article {pmid37291270, year = {2023}, author = {Maltas, T and Şahoğlu, V and Erkanal, H}, title = {Agricultural adaptations to mid-late Holocene climate change in western Türkiye.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {9349}, pmid = {37291270}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Agriculture ; Acclimatization ; Edible Grain ; }, abstract = {The period around the mid-late Holocene transition (c. 2200 BC) saw major societal developments across the eastern Mediterranean. At the same time, the region experienced a shift to more arid climatic conditions. This included punctuated episodes of rapid climate change such as the '4.2 ka event', which has been implicated in widespread societal 'collapse' at the end of the Early Bronze Age. The ways in which societies adapted agricultural production to cope with a drying climate are poorly understood. We begin to rectify this through stable isotope analysis of archaeobotanical remains from the Aegean region of western Türkiye, conducted to reveal changes in agricultural decision making across the mid-late Holocene transition. We find that Bronze Age farmers adapted agricultural production strategies by investing in drought-tolerant cereals cultivated on drier fields with water management strategies redirected towards pulses. Despite this, we find no evidence for pronounced drought stress in cereals grown during the period of the 4.2 ka event. This raises the potential for alternative explanations for societal disruptions visible across the Anatolian Plateau during this time, such as the breakdown of long-distance trade networks.}, }
@article {pmid37291004, year = {2023}, author = {Segaran, TC and Azra, MN and Lananan, F and Wang, Y}, title = {Microbe, climate change and marine environment: Linking trends and research hotspots.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {189}, number = {}, pages = {106015}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106015}, pmid = {37291004}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Seawater ; Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; }, abstract = {Microbes, or microorganisms, have been the foundation of the biosphere for over 3 billion years and have played an essential role in shaping our planet. The available knowledge on the topic of microbes associated with climate change has the potential to reshape upcoming research trends globally. As climate change impacts the ocean or marine ecosystem, the responses of these "unseen life" will heavily influence the achievement of a sustainable evolutionary environment. The present study aims to identify microbial-related research under changing climate within the marine environment through the mapping of visualized graphs of the available literature. We used scientometric methods to retrieve documents from the Web of Science platform in the Core Collection (WOSCC) database, analyzing a total of 2767 documents based on scientometric indicators. Our findings show that this research area is growing exponentially, with the most influential keywords being "microbial diversity," "bacteria," and "ocean acidification," and the most cited being "microorganism" and "diversity." The identification of influential clusters in the field of marine science provides insight into the hot spots and frontiers of research in this area. Prominent clusters include "coral microbiome," "hypoxic zone," "novel Thermoplasmatota clade," "marine dinoflagellate bloom," and "human health." Analyzing emerging trends and transformative changes in this field can inform the creation of special issues or research topics in selected journals, thus increasing visibility and engagement among the scientific community.}, }
@article {pmid37290662, year = {2023}, author = {Doorga, JRS and Pasnin, O and Dindoyal, Y and Diaz, C}, title = {Risk assessment of coral reef vulnerability to climate change and stressors in tropical islands: The case of Mauritius.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {891}, number = {}, pages = {164648}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164648}, pmid = {37290662}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Islands ; Climate Change ; Mauritius ; *Anthozoa ; Risk Assessment ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Coral reefs play a critical role in the socio-economic development of oceanic islands, besides offering coastal protection against the destructive forces of the sea under storm conditions. A Multi-Criteria Decision Making-based geospatial model is used which combine highly influential climatic, ecological, and anthropogenic reef degradation factors in view of revealing regions of high coral reef vulnerabilities to inform ecosystems conservation and management. Further investigation of the coastal seawater temperature trend revealed a rise in sea surface temperature approximating 0.66 °C over the 2003-2020 period as compared to the 1985-2003 interval, with a decadal temperature rise of 0.16 °C reported to be higher than the global average. The bleaching threshold in the region is frequently exceeded during the postmillennial period, further reducing coral fitness. Finally, management strategies are proposed here, which include the adequate design of Marine Protected Area networks, and the implementation of policy strategies for fertilizer use, sustainable coastal development projects, and control of reef predator population. The insights in this paper are expected to be applicable in the reef management of other oceanic islands.}, }
@article {pmid37290626, year = {2023}, author = {Liang, J and Liang, K}, title = {Nanobiohybrids: Synthesis strategies and environmental applications from micropollutants sensing and removal to global warming mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {232}, number = {}, pages = {116317}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.116317}, pmid = {37290626}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; *Nanotubes, Carbon ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Biodegradation, Environmental ; *Nanostructures ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Micropollutants contamination and global warming are critical environmental issues that require urgent attention due to natural and anthropogenic activities posing serious threats to human health and ecosystems. However, traditional technologies, such as adsorption, precipitation, biodegradation, and membrane separation, are facing challenges of low utilization efficiency of oxidants, poor selectivity, and complex in-situ monitoring operations. To address these technical bottlenecks, nanobiohybrids, synthesized by interfacing the nanomaterials and biosystems, have recently emerged as eco-friendly technologies. In this review, we summarize the synthesis approaches of nanobiohybrids and their utilization as emerging environmental technologies for addressing environmental problems. Studies demonstrate that enzymes, cells, and living plants can be integrated with a wide range of nanomaterials including reticular frameworks, semiconductor nanoparticles and single-walled carbon nanotubes. Moreover, nanobiohybrids demonstrate excellent performance for micropollutant removal, carbon dioxide conversion, and sensing of toxic metal ions and organic micropollutants. Therefore, nanobiohybrids are expected to be environmental friendly, efficient, and cost-effective techniques for addressing environmental micropollutants issues and mitigating global warming, benefiting both humans and ecosystems alike.}, }
@article {pmid37290015, year = {2023}, author = {Clark, RG and Pryor, S and Dietz, WH}, title = {Where Was Climate Change at the White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health?.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {113}, number = {8}, pages = {844-848}, pmid = {37290015}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {Humans ; *Hunger ; Climate Change ; Nutritional Status ; *Malnutrition/prevention &amp; control ; Food Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid37289898, year = {2023}, author = {Sips, GJ and Limaheluw, J and de Roda Husman, AM and Bousema, T}, title = {[Climate change and infectious diseases].}, journal = {Nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde}, volume = {167}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37289898}, issn = {1876-8784}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control ; Public Health ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {Climate change can contribute to a global increase in the burden of infectious diseases. Both the number of geographical areas as well as the number of yearly days that are suitable for transmission of certain infectious diseases can increase due to global warming. At the same time, increased 'suitability' does not always lead to a factual increase in disease burden and economic development and public health measures have resulted in marked reductions in the burden of several important infectious diseases in recent years. The net effect of global environmental change on infectious disease burden will be determined by a multitude of factors, including unpredictable outbreaks of pathogens and the extent to which public health programs can effectively function and adjust to changing health risks.}, }
@article {pmid37289862, year = {2023}, author = {Goorhuis, AB and de Mast, Q and Hovius, JW and van Nood, E}, title = {[New infectious diseases in Europe; the effect of climate change, globalisation and human behaviour].}, journal = {Nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde}, volume = {167}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37289862}, issn = {1876-8784}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Europe/epidemiology ; *Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change directly and indirectly contributes to the emergence of vector and water borne infections. Other infectious diseases may be introduced to new geographical areas as a result of globalisation and changing human behaviour. Despite the still low absolute risk, the pathogenicity of some of these infections creates a significant challenge for clinicians. Awareness of changing disease epidemiology helps in timely recognition of such infections. Vaccination guidelines for emerging vaccine-preventable diseases, such as tick-borne encephalitis and leptospirosis, may need to be updated.}, }
@article {pmid37289850, year = {2023}, author = {Luykx, JJ and Vinkers, CH and Tijdink, JK}, title = {[Mental health and climate change: reconceptualizing eco-anxiety].}, journal = {Nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde}, volume = {167}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37289850}, issn = {1876-8784}, mesh = {Humans ; *Mental Health ; Climate Change ; Anxiety Disorders ; *Phobic Disorders ; Anxiety/diagnosis ; }, abstract = {Climate change may bring about anxiety, which may be referred to as eco-anxiety. Commonly accepted conceptual or diagnostic criteria for eco-anxiety are currently lacking. Here, we briefly summarize the current literature on climate change and mental illness. We suggest dividing the concept of eco-anxiety into adaptive eco-anxiety and an anxiety disorder where climate change plays a major role. This distinction may be helpful in clinical practice to discern relatively common and potentially healthy eco-anxiety from a disorder causing impairment in daily functioning. Benefits of adaptive eco-anxiety include the development of active coping strategies (increasing resilience) as well as behavioural changes to mitigate climate change. When debilitating anxiety comes with avoidance and centers around climate change, a specific phobia called eco-anxiety disorder may be considered. Importantly, as validated diagnostic criteria for this disorder are currently lacking, further conceptualization is highly needed. Future clinical research may help fill these current knowledge gaps.}, }
@article {pmid37289390, year = {2023}, author = {Ali, S and Yan, Q and Dilanchiev, A and Irfan, M and Balabeyova, N}, title = {Economic development, social media awareness, and technological innovation in biogas sector under climate change in the post-COVID-19 pandemic conditions.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {33}, pages = {79960-79979}, pmid = {37289390}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; Biofuels ; Climate Change ; *Social Media ; Economic Development ; Inventions ; Pandemics ; *COVID-19 ; }, abstract = {After COVID-19, financing for emerging nation reserves in renewable energy bases was deemed a crucial aspect of sustainable development. Investing in biogas energy plants can be highly beneficial for lowering the use of fossil fuels. Using a survey of shareholders, investors, biogas energy professionals, and active social media participants in Pakistan, this study evaluates the intentions of individual investors to invest in biogas energy plants. The primary purpose of this study is to increase investment intent for biogas energy projects following COVID-19. This study focuses on financing biogas energy plants in the post-COVID-19 era and evaluates the research's assumptions using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The study employed the technique of purposive sampling to acquire data for this investigation. The results indicate that attitudes, perceived biogas energy benefits, perceived investment attitudes, and supervisory structure evaluations inspire one's propensity to finance biogas vitality plant efforts. The study found a link between eco-friendly responsiveness, monetary benefits, and investors' actions. The aspiration of investors to mark such reserves was set up to be unpretentious by their risk aversion. Conferring to the facts, evaluating the monitoring structure is the critical factor. The previous studies on investment behavior and other forms of pro-environmental intent and action yielded contradictory results. In addition, the regulatory environment was evaluated to see how the theory of planned behavior (TPB) affects financiers' objectives to participate in biogas power plants. The consequences of the study indicate that feelings of pride and discernment of energy expansively affect people's desire to invest in biogas plants. Biogas energy efficacy has little effect on investors' decisions to invest in biogas energy plants. This study offers policymakers practical ideas on enhancing investments in biogas energy plants.}, }
@article {pmid37289248, year = {2023}, author = {Zandlová, M and Skokanová, H and Trnka, M}, title = {Landscape Change Scenarios: Developing Participatory Tools for Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {72}, number = {3}, pages = {631-656}, pmid = {37289248}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {TL02000048//Technologick&#xe1; Agentura &#x10c;esk&#xe9; Republiky/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on people and ecosystems have been studied at both local and global levels. The environment is expected to change significantly, and the role of local communities in shaping more resilient landscapes is considered crucial. This research focuses on rural regions highly susceptible to climate change impacts. The objective was to enhance conditions for climate resilient development on a microlocal level by encouraging diverse stakeholders to participate in developing sustainable landscape management. This paper introduces a novel interdisciplinary mixed-method approach to landscape scenario development, combining research-driven and participatory approaches and integrating quantitative methods with qualitative ethnographic inquiry. Two scenarios for 2050 were built: a research-driven, business-as-usual scenario accounting for mandatory adaptation policies and an optimistic scenario combining research-driven and participatory approaches, including additional feasible community-based measures. While the differences between the projected land use seem to be relatively subtle, the optimistic scenario would in fact lead to a considerably more resilient landscape. The results highlight the role of interdisciplinarity and ethnography in gaining good local knowledge and building an atmosphere of trust. These factors supported the research credibility, strengthened the legitimacy of the intervention in local affairs, and contributed to the active participation of the stakeholders. We argue that despite its time, intense effort and limited direct policy impact, the mixed-method approach is highly suitable for the microlocal level. It encourages citizens to think about how their environment is threatened by climate change impacts and increases their willingness to contribute to climate resilience.}, }
@article {pmid37286918, year = {2023}, author = {Kebir, Z and Chambers, C and Frainier, A and Hausner, V and Lennert, AE and Lento, J and Poste, A and Ravolainen, V and Renner, AHH and Thomas, DN and Waylen, K}, title = {Fifteen research needs for understanding climate change impacts on ecosystems and society in the Norwegian High North.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {52}, number = {10}, pages = {1575-1591}, pmid = {37286918}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Norway ; Arctic Regions ; }, abstract = {There is an urgent need to understand and address the risks associated with a warming climate for ecosystems and societies in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. There are major gaps in our understanding of the complex effects of climate change-including extreme events, cascading impacts across ecosystems, and the underlying socioecological dynamics and feedbacks-all of which need collaborative efforts to be resolved. Here, we present results where climate scientists, ecologists, social scientists, and practitioners were asked to identify the most urgent research needs for understanding climate change impacts and to identify the actions for reducing future risks in catchment areas in the Norwegian High North, a region that encompasses both Arctic and sub-Arctic climates in northern Norway. From a list of 77 questions, our panel of 19 scientists and practitioners identified 15 research needs that should be urgently addressed. We particularly urge researchers to investigate cross-ecosystem impacts and the socioecological feedbacks that could amplify or reduce risks for society.}, }
@article {pmid37286825, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, Y and Wang, Y}, title = {The green wave for climate: overcoming financial intermediation challenges in climate change mitigation through credit subsidies.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {32}, pages = {79215-79226}, pmid = {37286825}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Animal Migration ; *Greenhouse Gases ; China ; Japan ; }, abstract = {The aim of this research is to investigate the role of credit subsidies in overcoming financial intermediation challenges. The study seeks to evaluate the current financial intermediation landscape in both countries with respect to climate change mitigation, and to determine the effectiveness of credit subsidies as a policy instrument for promoting mitigation efforts. We apply the unit root test and the error correction modeling technique in examining data from 2012 to 2018 originating from China and Japan, respectively. After that, an explanation for the data is constructed utilizing a regression method. Among the most important findings are the contributions of credit subsidies to eliminating fiscal imbalances, the positive effects they have on global commerce, and the relevance of credit subsidies in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in China and Japan. A 28% and 37% reduction in climate change, respectively, can be achieved by implementing credit subsidy programs for local residents in China and Japan. To provide households with the finance they require to tackle climate change, the financial systems of the industrialized world, particularly those in China and Japan, need to be upgraded.}, }
@article {pmid37286241, year = {2023}, author = {Katzman, JG and Balbus, J and Herring, D and Bole, A and Buttke, D and Schramm, P}, title = {Clinician education on climate change and health: virtual learning community models.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {7}, number = {6}, pages = {e444-e446}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00087-6}, pmid = {37286241}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Education, Distance ; Learning ; }, }
@article {pmid37285141, year = {2023}, author = {Walter, K}, title = {COPD Mortality, Goals-of-Care Conversations in Serious Illness, and Advocating for Climate Change Science and Gun Violence Prevention-Highlights From the American Thoracic Society Conference.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {329}, number = {24}, pages = {2114-2115}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2023.4390}, pmid = {37285141}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Firearms ; Goals ; *Gun Violence/prevention &amp; control ; *Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/mortality ; United States ; Violence ; *Patient Care Planning ; Societies, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid37284923, year = {2023}, author = {Kelly, G and Idubor, OI and Binney, S and Schramm, PJ and Mirabelli, MC and Hsu, J}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Asthma and Allergic-Immunologic Disease.}, journal = {Current allergy and asthma reports}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {453-461}, pmid = {37284923}, issn = {1534-6315}, support = {CC999999/ImCDC/Intramural CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/etiology ; *Asthma/epidemiology/etiology ; Health Personnel ; *Ozone ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review discusses climate change-related impacts on asthma and allergic-immunologic disease, relevant US public health efforts, and healthcare professional resources.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change can impact people with asthma and allergic-immunologic disease through various pathways, including increased exposure to asthma triggers (e.g., aeroallergens, ground-level ozone). Climate change-related disasters (e.g., wildfires, floods) disrupting healthcare access can complicate management of any allergic-immunologic disease. Climate change disproportionately affects some communities, which can exacerbate disparities in climate-sensitive diseases like asthma. Public health efforts include implementing a national strategic framework to help communities track, prevent, and respond to climate change-related health threats. Healthcare professionals can use resources or tools to help patients with asthma and allergic-immunologic disease prevent climate change-related health impacts. Climate change can affect people with asthma and allergic-immunologic disease and exacerbate health disparities. Resources and tools are available to help prevent climate change-related health impacts at the community and individual level.}, }
@article {pmid37284276, year = {2023}, author = {Allen, AJ}, title = {Selected advances in small-angle scattering and applications they serve in manufacturing, energy and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of applied crystallography}, volume = {56}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {787-800}, pmid = {37284276}, issn = {0021-8898}, abstract = {Innovations in small-angle X-ray and neutron scattering (SAXS and SANS) at major X-ray and neutron facilities offer new characterization tools for researching materials phenomena relevant to advanced applications. For SAXS, the new generation of diffraction-limited storage rings, incorporating multi-bend achromat concepts, dramatically decrease electron beam emittance and significantly increase X-ray brilliance over previous third-generation sources. This results in intense X-ray incident beams that are more compact in the horizontal plane, allowing significantly improved spatial resolution, better time resolution, and a new era for coherent-beam SAXS methods such as X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy. Elsewhere, X-ray free-electron laser sources provide extremely bright, fully coherent, X-ray pulses of <100 fs and can support SAXS studies of material processes where entire SAXS data sets are collected in a single pulse train. Meanwhile, SANS at both steady-state reactor and pulsed spallation neutron sources has significantly evolved. Developments in neutron optics and multiple detector carriages now enable data collection in a few minutes for materials characterization over nanometre-to-micrometre scale ranges, opening up real-time studies of multi-scale materials phenomena. SANS at pulsed neutron sources is becoming more integrated with neutron diffraction methods for simultaneous structure characterization of complex materials. In this paper, selected developments are highlighted and some recent state-of-the-art studies discussed, relevant to hard matter applications in advanced manufacturing, energy and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37283879, year = {2023}, author = {Gebre, GG and Amekawa, Y and Fikadu, AA and Rahut, DB}, title = {Farmers' use of climate change adaptation strategies and their impacts on food security in Kenya.}, journal = {Climate risk management}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {100495}, pmid = {37283879}, issn = {2212-0963}, abstract = {Climate change threatens the sustainability of food production among farmers in Kenya who depend on rain-fed agriculture. To minimize the negative impacts of climate change, farmers have sought to adopt different adaptation strategies. This study investigates factors influencing farmers' choice of climate change adaptation strategies and associated effects on their food security in Kenya using data collected from 540 farmers from six counties. A multivariate probit, censored least absolute deviation (CLAD), and propensity score matching (PSM) models were employed to identify the determinants in the farmers' choice of climate change adaptation strategies, the number of adaptation strategies adopted, and the effect of climate change adaptation strategies on their food security, respectively. Results show that planting drought-tolerant crop varieties (55%), growing diversified crops (34%), growing early maturing crops (22%), and diversifying the sources of household income (18%) were the four major adaptation strategies used by the farmers in the study area. Younger farmers and those with higher education levels are more likely to use these climate change adaptation practices. The number of adaptation strategies used was positively associated with male farmers, education level, family size, land size, farm income, extension contact, training, and information access. The farmers who adopt one adaptation strategy have higher food security status (approximately 7-11%) than those who do not. If they adopt two adaptation strategies, their food security status increases by approximately 11-14%; if they adopt three adaptation strategies, their food security status increases by nearly 12-15%; and if they adopt four adaptation practices, their food security status increases by about 14-18%, compared to those who do not adopt any strategy. Thus, the farmers' climate change adaptation practices have positive food security effects in Kenya according to the number of adaptation strategies adopted.}, }
@article {pmid37282725, year = {2023}, author = {Tamura, T}, title = {Is banning desflurane an essential measure to reduce global warming? Additional issues raised.}, journal = {European journal of anaesthesiology}, volume = {40}, number = {7}, pages = {534-535}, doi = {10.1097/EJA.0000000000001831}, pmid = {37282725}, issn = {1365-2346}, mesh = {Humans ; Desflurane ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; *Anesthetics, Inhalation/adverse effects ; *Isoflurane ; }, }
@article {pmid37280212, year = {2023}, author = {Weyhenmeyer, GA and Obertegger, U and Rudebeck, H and Jakobsson, E and Jansen, J and Zdorovennova, G and Bansal, S and Block, BD and Carey, CC and Doubek, JP and Dugan, H and Erina, O and Fedorova, I and Fischer, JM and Grinberga, L and Grossart, HP and Kangur, K and Knoll, LB and Laas, A and Lepori, F and Meier, J and Palshin, N and Peternell, M and Pulkkanen, M and Rusak, JA and Sharma, S and Wain, D and Zdorovennov, R}, title = {Author Correction: Towards critical white ice conditions in lakes under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {3283}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-023-39005-3}, pmid = {37280212}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid37279257, year = {2023}, author = {Sheward, RM and Liefer, JD and Irwin, AJ and Finkel, ZV}, title = {Elemental stoichiometry of the key calcifying marine phytoplankton Emiliania huxleyi under ocean climate change: A meta-analysis.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {15}, pages = {4259-4278}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16807}, pmid = {37279257}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Canada Research Chairs/ ; 447581699//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; 549935//Simons Foundation/ ; 549937//Simons Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Haptophyta ; Phytoplankton/physiology ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {The elemental composition of marine microorganisms (their C:N:P ratio, or stoichiometry) is central to understanding the biotic and biogeochemical processes underlying key marine ecosystem functions. Phytoplankton C:N:P is species specific and flexible to changing environmental conditions. However, bulk or fixed phytoplankton stoichiometry is usually assumed in biogeochemical and ecological models because more realistic, environmentally responsive C:N:P ratios have yet to be defined for key functional groups. Here, a comprehensive meta-analysis of experimental laboratory data reveals the variable C:N:P stoichiometry of Emiliania huxleyi, a globally significant calcifying phytoplankton species. Mean C:N:P of E. huxleyi is 124C:16N:1P under control conditions (i.e. growth not limited by one or more environmental stressors) and shows a range of responses to changes in nutrient and light availability, temperature and pCO2 . Macronutrient limitation caused strong shifts in stoichiometry, increasing N:P and C:P under P deficiency (by 305% and 493% respectively) and doubling C:N under N deficiency. Responses to light, temperature and pCO2 were mixed but typically shifted cellular elemental content and C:N:P stoichiometry by ca. 30% or less. Besides these independent effects, the interactive effects of multiple environmental changes on E. huxleyi stoichiometry under future ocean conditions could be additive, synergistic or antagonistic. To synthesise our meta-analysis results, we explored how the cellular elemental content and C:N:P stoichiometry of E. huxleyi may respond to two hypothetical future ocean scenarios (increased temperature, irradiance and pCO2 combined with either N deficiency or P deficiency) if an additive effect is assumed. Both future scenarios indicate decreased calcification (which is predominantly sensitive to elevated pCO2), increased C:N, and up to fourfold shifts in C:P and N:P. Our results strongly suggest that climate change will significantly alter the role of E. huxleyi (and potentially other calcifying phytoplankton species) in marine biogeochemical processes.}, }
@article {pmid37279197, year = {2023}, author = {Miranda, AV and Lestari, BW and Indrarini, A and Arsy, FF and Sagala, S and Bisri, MBF and Lucero-Prisno, DE}, title = {Adaptation of health systems to climate change-related infectious disease outbreaks in the ASEAN: Protocol for a scoping review of national and regional policies.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {6}, pages = {e0286869}, pmid = {37279197}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Research Design ; Review Literature as Topic ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; Asia, Southeastern ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states (AMS) are among the countries most at risk to the impacts of climate change on health and outbreaks being a major hotspot of emerging infectious diseases.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To map the current policies and programs on the climate change adaptation in the ASEAN health systems, with particular focus on policies related to infectious diseases control.<br><br>METHODS: This is a scoping review following the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) methodology. Literature search will be conducted on the ASEAN Secretariat website, government websites, Google, and six research databases (PubMed, ScienceDirect, Web of Science, Embase, World Health Organization (WHO) Institutional Repository Information Sharing (IRIS), and Google Scholar). The article screening will be based on specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Policy analysis will be conducted in accordance with the WHO operational framework on climate-resilient health systems. Findings will be analyzed in the form of narrative report. The reporting of this scoping review follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR).<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required for this study as this is a scoping review protocol. Findings from this study will be disseminated through electronic channels.}, }
@article {pmid37278094, year = {2023}, author = {Breakey, S and Starodub, R and Nicholas, PK and Wong, J}, title = {A cross-sectional study to assess faculty and student knowledge of climate change and health: Readiness for curricular integration.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {79}, number = {12}, pages = {4716-4731}, doi = {10.1111/jan.15729}, pmid = {37278094}, issn = {1365-2648}, support = {//MGH Institute of Health Professions School of Nursing Faculty Fellowship Grant/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; United States ; Young Adult ; Adult ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Climate Change ; *Faculty ; Curriculum ; Students ; }, abstract = {AIMS: To examine the perceived knowledge, attitudes and beliefs regarding climate change and health of academic faculty and students in programmes for health professionals and to identify barriers/facilitators to and resources required for curriculum integration.<br><br>DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey eliciting quantitative and open-ended responses.<br><br>METHODS: A 22-question survey to assess climate-health knowledge/attitudes/beliefs was distributed to all students and faculty (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;224) at one academic institution in the United States. Open-ended questions addressed barriers, facilitators and required resources. Descriptive statistics are reported, and thematic analysis was used to identify themes from open-ended responses.<br><br>RESULTS: Response rate was 15%. Most respondents (76%) were between 20 and 34&#x2009;years old. The majority were from nursing (39%), occupational therapy (13%) and communication speech disorders (12.5%). Most respondents perceived climate change as relevant to direct patient care (78%) and believed that it is impacting the health of individuals (86%) and should be integrated into curricula (89%). Yet, most (60%) reported modest to no knowledge about the health impacts. Faculty reported little to no comfort teaching climate change and health concepts (76%). Open-ended responses identified student/faculty receptivity and professional/clinical relevance as important facilitators of successful integration. Barriers included intensity of programmes; time and competing curricular priorities; and a lack of faculty expertise, resources, institutional and professional commitment.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Most health professions students and faculty indicated that educating future health professionals about climate change and health is important, but existing barriers must be addressed.<br><br>IMPACT: This study addressed student and faculty perceptions of integrating climate change and health into health professions curricula. Discipline-specific and interprofessional educational approaches are necessary to optimize future health professionals' efforts to prevent and mitigate climate change impacts for at-risk patients, communities and populations.}, }
@article {pmid37273416, year = {2023}, author = {Shang, Y and Bi, C and Wei, X and Jiang, D and Taghizadeh-Hesary, F and Rasoulinezhad, E}, title = {Eco-tourism, climate change, and environmental policies: empirical evidence from developing economies.}, journal = {Humanities &amp; social sciences communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {275}, pmid = {37273416}, issn = {2662-9992}, abstract = {Developing ecotourism services is a suitable solution to help developing countries improve the status of sustainable development indicators and protect their environment. The primary purpose of this paper is to find out the effects of green governance variables and carbon dioxide emissions on ecotourism for 40 developing economies from 2010 to 2021. The results confirmed a uni-directional causal relationship between the green governance indicator and the inflation rate of the ecotourism indicator. In addition, with a 1% improvement in the green governance index of developing countries, the ecotourism of these countries will increase by 0.43%. In comparison, with a 1% increase in the globalization index of these countries, ecotourism will increase by 0.32%. Moreover, ecotourism in developing countries is more sensitive to macroeconomic variables changes than in developed economies. Geopolitical risk is an influential factor in the developing process of ecotourism. The practical policies recommended by this research are developing the green financing market, establishing virtual tourism, granting green loans to small and medium enterprises, and government incentives to motivate active businesses.}, }
@article {pmid37271396, year = {2023}, author = {Jiang, J and Ye, B and Sun, Z and Zeng, Z and Yang, X}, title = {Low-carbon energy policies benefit climate change mitigation and air pollutant reduction in megacities: An empirical examination of Shenzhen, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {892}, number = {}, pages = {164644}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164644}, pmid = {37271396}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; Cities ; Carbon/analysis ; Climate Change ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; *Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control/analysis ; China ; Policy ; }, abstract = {The low-carbon transformation of energy system has great significance for megacities to mitigate climate change, which brings co-benefits to improve urban air quality. Taking China's megacity, Shenzhen, as an example, this study examines the potential of wide-ranging energy policies in urban GHG emission reduction and the associated synergistic effect on decreasing major air pollutant emissions. Based on the low emissions analysis platform (LEAP) model, the major results show that an effective implementation of newly emerging energy policies could help cap GHG emissions of Shenzhen in 2025 and nearly halve them by 2035, which would contribute substantially to reducing urban air pollutant emissions. At the sectoral level, the synergistic effect of emission reduction would be the strongest in the transportation sector, followed by the electricity and manufacturing sectors, while it is not significant in the building sector. Moreover, all policies on energy efficiency improvement and demand management that reduce fossil energy consumption show synergistic effects on decreasing air pollutants, while policies on energy structural optimization show differentiated impacts across SO2, NOx, VOCs, and PM2.5. Urban managers should prioritize energy policies with strong synergistic effects and specifically promote the wide application of rooftop PV system and deep electrification of road transportation.}, }
@article {pmid37270985, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, J and Fan, B}, title = {What contributes to local-level institutional adaptation under climate change? A configurational approach based on evidence from China's Sponge City Program.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {342}, number = {}, pages = {118292}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118292}, pmid = {37270985}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Floods ; Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {Unrestrained human industrial and agricultural production activities exacerbate climate change and environmental pollution. Climate change leads to an increase in flood risks and the spread of water and soil pollution, resulting in challenges in urban stormwater management. Institutional adaptation to climate change is vital for realizing effective local urban stormwater management. However, the accumulated knowledge on climate adaptation over the past decade has been concentrated at the technical and economic levels, with limited research on institutional adaptation. The Sponge City Program in China selects 30 pilot cities to promote a novel stormwater management approach that combines the reliability of traditional gray infrastructures made of concrete materials with the adaptability and sustainability of green-blue infrastructures based on natural-based solutions, but the extent of institutional adaptation in this process varies considerably across pilot cities. To explain what drives institutional adaptation, a configurational analysis of pilot cities is conducted using the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis method. Based on data from 628 official reports and 36 interviews, we demonstrate local governments are significant institutional entrepreneurs, and high institutional adaptation occurs with the combined effects of institutional capacity, financial resources, and reputational incentives. There are three types of paths driving institutional adaptation: "strong institutional capacity-strong financial resource-low reputational reserve," "strong institutional capacity-strong financial resource-high reputational competition," and "strong institutional capacity-weak financial resource-low reputational reserve." These three paths account for 72% of the instances of high institutional adaptation outcomes, and 90% of cases share a given configuration of conditions associated with an outcome. Our conclusion advances a theoretical understanding of the drivers of institutional adaptation and provides guidelines for future climate adaptation practices.}, }
@article {pmid37270894, year = {2023}, author = {Li, YJ and Chen, SY and Jørgensen, LB and Overgaard, J and Renault, D and Colinet, H and Ma, CS}, title = {Interspecific differences in thermal tolerance landscape explain aphid community abundance under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {114}, number = {}, pages = {103583}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2023.103583}, pmid = {37270894}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aphids ; Climate Change ; Temperature ; Cold Temperature ; *Cold Injury ; }, abstract = {A single critical thermal limit is often used to explain and infer the impact of climate change on geographic range and population abundance. However, it has limited application in describing the temporal dynamic and cumulative impacts of extreme temperatures. Here, we used a thermal tolerance landscape approach to address the impacts of extreme thermal events on the survival of co-existing aphid species (Metopolophium dirhodum, Sitobion avenae and Rhopalosiphum padi). Specifically, we built the thermal death time (TDT) models based on detailed survival datasets of three aphid species with three ages across a broad range of stressful high (34-40 °C) and low (-3∼-11 °C) temperatures to compare the interspecific and developmental stage variations in thermal tolerance. Using these TDT parameters, we performed a thermal risk assessment by calculating the potential daily thermal injury accumulation associated with the regional temperature variations in three wheat-growing sites along a latitude gradient. Results showed that M. dirhodum was the most vulnerable to heat but more tolerant to low temperatures than R. padi and S. avenae. R. padi survived better at high temperatures than Sitobion avenae and M. dirhodum but was sensitive to cold. R. padi was estimated to accumulate higher cold injury than the other two species during winter, while M. dirhodum accrued more heat injury during summer. The warmer site had higher risks of heat injury and the cooler site had higher risks of cold injury along a latitude gradient. These results support recent field observations that the proportion of R. padi increases with the increased frequency of heat waves. We also found that young nymphs generally had a lower thermal tolerance than old nymphs or adults. Our results provide a useful dataset and method for modelling and predicting the consequence of climate change on the population dynamics and community structure of small insects.}, }
@article {pmid37268148, year = {2023}, author = {Dong, S and Li, S and Xu, Y and Shen, H and Song, H and Wu, Z and Wu, S and Zhou, B and Li, F}, title = {Different responses of alpine plants to natural climate change reduced coexistence through phenological niche overlap.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {892}, number = {}, pages = {164522}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164522}, pmid = {37268148}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Plants ; Poaceae ; Tibet ; *Carex Plant ; Temperature ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Plant phenology is the bridge between climate change and ecosystem functions. Time coordination of interspecific and intraspecific phenology changes overlap or separate can be regarded as an important characteristic of species coexistence. To confirm the hypothesis that plant phenological niche promotes species coexistence, three key alpine plants, Kobresia humilis (sedge), Stipa purpurea (grass), and Astragalus laxmannii (forb) were investigated in this study in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Phenological niches represented as the duration of green up-flowering, flowering-fruiting, and fruiting-withering by 2-day intervals for phenological dynamics of three key alpine plants from 1997 to 2016. We found the role of precipitation on regulating the phenological niches of alpine plants was highlighted in the context of climate warming. The response of the intraspecific phenological niche of the three species to temperature and precipitation is different, and the phenological niche of Kobresia humilis and Stipa purpurea was separate, especially in the green up-flowering. But the overlapping degree of interspecific phenological niche of the three species has continued to increase in the past 20 years, reducing possibility of species coexistence. Our findings have profound implications for understanding the adaptation strategies of key alpine plants to climate change in the dimension of phenological niche.}, }
@article {pmid37268143, year = {2023}, author = {Godwin, A and McGill, C and Ward, A and Sofkova-Bobcheva, S and Pieralli, S}, title = {Phenological phase affects carrot seed production sensitivity to climate change - A panel data analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {892}, number = {}, pages = {164502}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164502}, pmid = {37268143}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Daucus carota ; Climate Change ; Seeds ; Temperature ; Crops, Agricultural ; }, abstract = {New Zealand is a major producer of carrot seeds globally. Carrots are an important nutritional crop for human consumption. Since the growth and development of carrot seed crops mainly depend on climatic factors, seed yield is extremely susceptible to climate change. This modeling study was undertaken using a panel data approach to determine the impact of the atmospheric conditions (proxied by maximum and minimum temperature) and precipitation during the critical growth stages for seed production in carrot, viz., juvenile phase, vernalization phase, floral development phase, and flowering and seed development phase on carrot seed yield. The panel dataset was created using cross-sections from 28 locations within the Canterbury and Hawke's Bay regions of New Zealand that cultivate carrot seed crops and time series from 2005 to 2022. Pre-diagnostic tests were performed to test the model assumptions, and a fixed effect model was selected subsequently. There was significant (p < 0.01) variability in temperature and rainfall throughout different growing phases, except for precipitation at the vernalization phase. The highest rate of changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation were recorded during the vernalization phase (+0.254 °C per year), floral development phase (+0.18 °C per year), and juvenile phase (-6.508 mm per year), respectively. Based on marginal effect analysis, the highest significant influence of minimum (187.724 kg/ha of seed yield decrease for each 1 °C increment) and maximum temperature (1 °C rise increases seed yield by 132.728 kg/ha), and precipitation (1 mm increment of rainfall decreases the seed yield by 1.745 kg/ha) on carrot seed yield were reported at vernalization, and flowering and seed development, respectively. The minimum and maximum temperatures have a higher marginal effect on carrot seed production. Analysis of the panel data demonstrates that the production of carrot seeds will be vulnerable to climatic change.}, }
@article {pmid37268126, year = {2023}, author = {Puchałka, R and Paź-Dyderska, S and Woziwoda, B and Dyderski, MK}, title = {Climate change will cause climatic niche contraction of Vaccinium myrtillus L. and V. vitis-idaea L. in Europe.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {892}, number = {}, pages = {164483}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164483}, pmid = {37268126}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Vaccinium myrtillus ; *Vaccinium vitis-idaea ; Ecosystem ; *Vitis ; Climate Change ; Europe ; }, abstract = {We estimated climate niche shifts and threat levels under various climate change scenarios for Vaccinium myrtillus L. and V. vitis-idaea L. We developed the MaxEnt species distribution models, and predicted future climatic optima for climate change scenarios for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. The precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping the climatic niches of the studied species. We predicted the largest shifts in climate niches from the present to the 2040-2060 period, with the most pessimistic scenario predicting significant range losses for both species, mainly in Western Europe. Under the most optimistic SSP126 scenario, both species will lose 39 % of their climatic niche for both periods. In the worst-case scenario (SSP585) for 2061-2080, climatic niche contraction will cover 47 % and 39 % of the current climatic niche for V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea, respectively. The predicted changes in species distribution could have far-reaching consequences for temperate and boreal forests due to their crucial biocenotic role in forest ecosystems, high potential for carbon sequestration, and prevention of soil erosion. Furthermore, the changes would likely affect the economic potential regarding fruit production and culturally relevant uses of different parts of the plants, mainly fruits.}, }
@article {pmid37267665, year = {2023}, author = {Bertolini, C and Glaser, D and Canu, M and Pastres, R}, title = {Coupling habitat-specific temperature scenarios with tolerance landscape to predict the impacts of climate change on farmed bivalves.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {188}, number = {}, pages = {106038}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106038}, pmid = {37267665}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Temperature ; *Climate Change ; *Mytilus ; Ecosystem ; Water ; }, abstract = {Due to climate change, heatwaves are likely to become more frequent, prolonged and characterized by higher peak values, compared with climatological averages. However, the thermal tolerance of organisms depends on the actual exposure, which can be modulated by environmental context and microhabitat characteristics. This study investigated the frequency of occurrence of mass mortality events in the next decades for two species of farmed bivalves, the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and the clam Ruditapes philippinarum, in a shallow coastal lagoon, characterised by marked diurnal oscillations of water temperature. The effect of heatwaves was estimated by means of tolerance landscape models, which predict the occurrence of 50% mortality based on the exposure intensity and duration. Scenarios of water temperature up to the year 2100 were modelled by combining two mechanistic components, namely: 1) monthly mean water temperatures, simulated using a hydrodynamic model including the heat budget; 2) daily oscillations, estimated from the harmonic analysis of a twenty year-long site-specific time series of water temperature. Scenarios of mean daily sediment temperature were estimated by means of a cross-correlation model, using as input the water temperature one: the model parameters were estimated based on a comprehensive set of site-specific water and sediment temperature observations. The results indicate that for both species the risk of mass mortality rapidly increases starting from the 2060s. Furthermore, the daily patterns of water temperature seemed to be relevant, as overnight it falls below the predicted mortality thresholds for a few hours. These findings suggest that further studies should address: 1) the improvement of tolerance landscape models, in order to take into account the integrated effect of repeated non-lethal stress events on mortality rate; 2) the prediction of environmental temperature in specific habitat, by means of both process-based and data driven models.}, }
@article {pmid37265254, year = {2023}, author = {Seifert, M and Nissen, C and Rost, B and Vogt, M and Völker, C and Hauck, J}, title = {Interaction matters: Bottom-up driver interdependencies alter the projected response of phytoplankton communities to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {15}, pages = {4234-4258}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16799}, pmid = {37265254}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {820989//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; VH-NG-1301//Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association/ ; }, mesh = {*Phytoplankton/physiology ; Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Diatoms/physiology ; Biomass ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Phytoplankton growth is controlled by multiple environmental drivers, which are all modified by climate change. While numerous experimental studies identify interactive effects between drivers, large-scale ocean biogeochemistry models mostly account for growth responses to each driver separately and leave the results of these experimental multiple-driver studies largely unused. Here, we amend phytoplankton growth functions in a biogeochemical model by dual-driver interactions (CO2 and temperature, CO2 and light), based on data of a published meta-analysis on multiple-driver laboratory experiments. The effect of this parametrization on phytoplankton biomass and community composition is tested using present-day and future high-emission (SSP5-8.5) climate forcing. While the projected decrease in future total global phytoplankton biomass in simulations with driver interactions is similar to that in control simulations without driver interactions (5%-6%), interactive driver effects are group-specific. Globally, diatom biomass decreases more with interactive effects compared with the control simulation (-8.1% with interactions vs. no change without interactions). Small-phytoplankton biomass, by contrast, decreases less with on-going climate change when the model accounts for driver interactions (-5.0% vs. -9.0%). The response of global coccolithophore biomass to future climate conditions is even reversed when interactions are considered (+33.2% instead of -10.8%). Regionally, the largest difference in the future phytoplankton community composition between the simulations with and without driver interactions is detected in the Southern Ocean, where diatom biomass decreases (-7.5%) instead of increases (+14.5%), raising the share of small phytoplankton and coccolithophores of total phytoplankton biomass. Hence, interactive effects impact the phytoplankton community structure and related biogeochemical fluxes in a future ocean. Our approach is a first step to integrate the mechanistic understanding of interacting driver effects on phytoplankton growth gained by numerous laboratory experiments into a global ocean biogeochemistry model, aiming toward more realistic future projections of phytoplankton biomass and community composition.}, }
@article {pmid37265088, year = {2023}, author = {Bhoite, R and Han, Y and Chaitanya, AK and Varshney, RK and Sharma, DL}, title = {Genomic approaches to enhance adaptive plasticity to cope with soil constraints amidst climate change in wheat.}, journal = {The plant genome}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e20358}, doi = {10.1002/tpg2.20358}, pmid = {37265088}, issn = {1940-3372}, abstract = {Climate change is varying the availability of resources, soil physicochemical properties, and rainfall events, which collectively determines soil physical and chemical properties. Soil constraints-acidity (pH < 6), salinity (pH ≤ 8.5), sodicity, and dispersion (pH > 8.5)-are major causes of wheat yield loss in arid and semiarid cropping systems. To cope with changing environments, plants employ adaptive strategies such as phenotypic plasticity, a key multifaceted trait, to promote shifts in phenotypes. Adaptive strategies for constrained soils are complex, determined by key functional traits and genotype × environment × management interactions. The understanding of the molecular basis of stress tolerance is particularly challenging for plasticity traits. Advances in sequencing and high-throughput genomics technologies have identified functional alleles in gene-rich regions, haplotypes, candidate genes, mechanisms, and in silico gene expression profiles at various growth developmental stages. Our review focuses on favorable alleles for enhanced gene expression, quantitative trait loci, and epigenetic regulation of plant responses to soil constraints, including heavy metal stress and nutrient limitations. A strategy is then described for quantitative traits in wheat by investigating significant alleles and functional characterization of variants, followed by gene validation using advanced genomic tools, and marker development for molecular breeding and genome editing. Moreover, the review highlights the progress of gene editing in wheat, multiplex gene editing, and novel alleles for smart control of gene expression. Application of these advanced genomic technologies to enhance plasticity traits along with soil management practices will be an effective tool to build yield, stability, and sustainability on constrained soils in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37263997, year = {2023}, author = {Duncanson, L and Liang, M and Leitold, V and Armston, J and Krishna Moorthy, SM and Dubayah, R and Costedoat, S and Enquist, BJ and Fatoyinbo, L and Goetz, SJ and Gonzalez-Roglich, M and Merow, C and Roehrdanz, PR and Tabor, K and Zvoleff, A}, title = {The effectiveness of global protected areas for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {2908}, pmid = {37263997}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {80NSSC21K0196//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; 80NSSC21K0196//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; NNL 15AA03C//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; NNL 15AA03C//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; 80NSSC21K0189//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; OAC1934389//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; OAC1934389//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 80NSSC19K0186//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; OAC1934389//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; OAC1934389//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Forests play a critical role in stabilizing Earth's climate. Establishing protected areas (PAs) represents one approach to forest conservation, but PAs were rarely created to mitigate climate change. The global impact of PAs on the carbon cycle has not previously been quantified due to a lack of accurate global-scale carbon stock maps. Here we used ~412 million lidar samples from NASA's GEDI mission to estimate a total PA aboveground carbon (C) stock of 61.43 Gt (+/- 0.31), 26% of all mapped terrestrial woody C. Of this total, 9.65 + /- 0.88 Gt of additional carbon was attributed to PA status. These higher C stocks are primarily from avoided emissions from deforestation and degradation in PAs compared to unprotected forests. This total is roughly equivalent to one year of annual global fossil fuel emissions. These results underscore the importance of conservation of high biomass forests for avoiding carbon emissions and preserving future sequestration.}, }
@article {pmid37263916, year = {2023}, author = {Vilà-Cabrera, A and Astigarraga, J and Jump, AS and Zavala, MA and Seijo, F and Sperlich, D and Ruiz-Benito, P}, title = {Anthropogenic land-use legacies underpin climate change-related risks to forest ecosystems.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {28}, number = {10}, pages = {1132-1143}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2023.04.014}, pmid = {37263916}, issn = {1878-4372}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Forest ecosystems with long-lasting human imprints can emerge worldwide as outcomes of land-use cessation. However, the interaction of these anthropogenic legacies with climate change impacts on forests is not well understood. Here, we set out how anthropogenic land-use legacies that persist in forest properties, following alterations in forest distribution, structure, and composition, can interact with climate change stressors. We propose a risk-based framework to identify anthropogenic legacies of land uses in forest ecosystems and quantify the impact of their interaction with climate-related stress on forest responses. Considering anthropogenic land-use legacies alongside environmental drivers of forest ecosystem dynamics will improve our predictive capacity of climate-related risks to forests and our ability to promote ecosystem resilience to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37263280, year = {2023}, author = {Deivanayagam, TA and English, S and Hickel, J and Bonifacio, J and Guinto, RR and Hill, KX and Huq, M and Issa, R and Mulindwa, H and Nagginda, HP and de Morais Sato, P and Selvarajah, S and Sharma, C and Devakumar, D}, title = {Envisioning environmental equity: climate change, health, and racial justice.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {402}, number = {10395}, pages = {64-78}, pmid = {37263280}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Social Justice ; *Racism ; Racial Groups ; *Transients and Migrants ; *Health Equity ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a broad range of health impacts and tackling climate change could be the greatest opportunity for improving global health this century. Yet conversations on climate change and health are often incomplete, giving little attention to structural discrimination and the need for racial justice. Racism kills, and climate change kills. Together, racism and climate change interact and have disproportionate effects on the lives of minoritised people both within countries and between the Global North and the Global South. This paper has three main aims. First, to survey the literature on the unequal health impacts of climate change due to racism, xenophobia, and discrimination through a scoping review. We found that racially minoritised groups, migrants, and Indigenous communities face a disproportionate burden of illness and mortality due to climate change in different contexts. Second, this paper aims to highlight inequalities in responsibility for climate change and the effects thereof. A geographical visualisation of responsibility for climate change and projected mortality and disease risk attributable to climate change per 100 000 people in 2050 was conducted. These maps visualise the disproportionate burden of illness and mortality due to climate change faced by the Global South. Our third aim is to highlight the pathways through which climate change, discrimination, and health interact in most affected areas. Case studies, testimony, and policy analysis drawn from multidisciplinary perspectives are presented throughout the paper to elucidate these pathways. The health community must urgently examine and repair the structural discrimination that drives the unequal impacts of climate change to achieve rapid and equitable action.}, }
@article {pmid37263264, year = {2023}, author = {Roy, S and Ayalon, L}, title = {"They did not know what they were doing": Climate change and intergenerational compassion.}, journal = {The Gerontologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/geront/gnad063}, pmid = {37263264}, issn = {1758-5341}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Compassion is described as an affective experience arising from witnessing the undeserved suffering of another that propels one to provide protection and cooperation. Climate change is often associated with "underserved suffering", especially of younger and future generations. Consequently, contemporary climate discourse has expressed hostility toward older generations for inflicting such suffering. Studies on intergenerational relations within the context of climate change agree that intergenerational solidarity, rather than conflict, is necessary for effective climate action. Since compassion is instrumental to solidarity, in this study, we explore intergenerational climate-related expressions of compassion leading to intergenerational solidarity.<br><br>RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We interviewed 16 climate activists from 8 countries (aged 16-76 years) to understand how they view climate responsibility. Thematic analysis was undertaken to create and explore themes related to intergenerational compassion and solidarity.<br><br>RESULTS: Compassion flowed in both directions: from younger to older generations in the form of forgiveness, empathy, and understanding, and from older to younger generations through advocacy, lifestyle changes, and transmission of knowledge and skills. All participants emphasised solutions over accusations. Areas of focus varied between industrialized and developing countries. Cultural factors played an essential role in intergenerational perceptions.<br><br>DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Climate change can be a polarizing issue with older adults fielding accusations and younger people facing criticism for demanding climate action. Examples of intergenerational compassion can counter ageism, re-shape climate narratives, encourage intergenerational cooperation, harness the skills of different generations, and create a sustainable world for all ages.}, }
@article {pmid37261694, year = {2023}, author = {Isa, Z and Sawa, BA and Abdussalam, AF and Ibrahim, M and Babati, AH and Baba, BM and Ugya, AY}, title = {Impact of climate change on climate extreme indices in Kaduna River basin, Nigeria.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {31}, pages = {77689-77712}, pmid = {37261694}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Nigeria ; *Climate Change ; *Rivers ; Forecasting ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This study examined the impact of climate change on climate extreme indices in the Kaduna River basin, Nigeria. Large-scale atmospheric variables derived from the Global Climate Model (GCM), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (CanESM2) were used to develop a high-resolution climate using a Statistical Down Scaling Model. The adapted Caussinus-Mestre algorithm for homogenizing networks of temperature series and multivariate bias correction based on an N-dimension probability function were used to homogenize and correct the climate data, respectively. Fifteen climate extreme indices were computed using RClimdex. The coefficient of variance, Kruskal-Wallis test, and the modified Mann-Kendall test were used to assess the variation and trends. Wavelet analysis was used to determine the periodicities of the indices (1980-2020). The findings revealed a significant warming trend with low variability of temperature indices. The moderate variability with an insignificant decreasing trend was found for rainfall indices. Similarly, the future climate indices indicate a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices. The majority of climate indices have a periodicity of less than or equal to 10 years for high frequency, except for PRCPTOT, R10MM, R20MM, Rx5day, SDII, TN90p, and TX90p for temperature indices. The findings conclude that the periodicity pattern of climate extreme indices is related to atmospheric phenomena (such as quasi-biennial oscillation, QBO), which indicate the impact of climate change. As a result, this can serve as an early warning for possible extreme event occurrences in the basin. The CMIP6 should be used to compare with the results of this study to provide a detailed assessment of the current implication of climate change on the catchment.}, }
@article {pmid37261436, year = {2023}, author = {van Bergen, L and Birch, M}, title = {Conflict, climate change and the need for safe spaces: the interlocking problems that urgently need joined up solutions.}, journal = {Medicine, conflict, and survival}, volume = {39}, number = {2}, pages = {111-113}, doi = {10.1080/13623699.2023.2216486}, pmid = {37261436}, issn = {1362-3699}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Armed Conflicts ; }, }
@article {pmid37260883, year = {2023}, author = {Demissie, TA}, title = {Impact of climate change on hydrologic components using CORDEX Africa climate model in Gilgel Gibe 1 watershed Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e16701}, pmid = {37260883}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrological components of Gilgel Gibe-1 using the ensemble of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) Africa Domain namely REMO2009, HIRAM5, CCLM4-8 and RCA4 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations. The performance of these RCM models was evaluated using the observed data from 1985 to 2005 and the ensemble was shown to simulate rainfall and air temperature better than individual RCMs. Then the RCMs ensemble data for historical and future projections from 2026 to 2055 years under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were corrected for bias and used to evaluate the impact of climate change. A non-linear bias correction and the monthly mean biases corrections method is used to adjust precipitation and temperature respectively. The future projection shows that; rainfall is expected to increase from August to December with maximum values of 1.97-235.23% under RCP4.5. The maximum temperature is expected to increase with maximum value of 1.62 °C under RCP8.5 in the study area. The calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrologic components such as surface runoff, lateral flow, water yield, evapotranspiration and sediment yield. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using monthly stream flow with the statistical performance of R[2] value of 0.82 and NSE value of 0.72 for calibration and R[2] of 0.79 and NSE of 0.67 for validation. Surface runoff and sediment yield are expected to increase from August to December under RCP4.5 and from August to February under RCP8.5. Overall both surface runoff and sediment yield are expected to increase in the future.}, }
@article {pmid37259785, year = {2023}, author = {Squires, E}, title = {Effects of climate change on patients with respiratory and cardiovascular conditions.}, journal = {Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987)}, volume = {38}, number = {7}, pages = {57-61}, doi = {10.7748/ns.2023.e12087}, pmid = {37259785}, issn = {2047-9018}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Cardiovascular Diseases ; *Asthma ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most significant global challenges and is already having detrimental effects on people's health. Pollution levels and ambient temperatures continue to increase, resulting in higher levels of humidity and pollen production. These environmental threats can affect many vulnerable patients, particularly those with respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, and nurses have a crucial role in raising awareness of the health implications of climate change. This article explores the pathophysiological effects of climate change on patients with asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and cardiovascular disease, and aims to enhance nurses' understanding of the health challenges of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37256364, year = {2023}, author = {Gençay, G and Durkaya, B}, title = {What is meant by land-use change? Effects of mining activities on forest and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {6}, pages = {778}, pmid = {37256364}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Trees ; Forestry/methods ; Biomass ; Carbon/analysis ; }, abstract = {The ownership of 99.9% of forests in Turkey belongs to the State. According to the mandatory provisions of the Turkish Constitution of 1982, the ownership of State forests cannot be transferred to third parties. However, forest legislation permits several activities within the State forests, other than forestry, under certain conditions. Thus, in this study, the legal process of mining permits granted in State forests in Turkey was analyzed, and the policies implemented in mining permits were tried to be evaluated. Then, how mining activities affect forestlands and the environment has been compared by taking international studies in the literature into account. The change in the amount of carbon stored in the forests where the land use changed as a result of the given mining permit was calculated using the biomass expansion factor (BEF) method. After the mining permit was granted, 53% of the land-use change occurred in the sample area, and there was a 43% decrease in the amount of carbon stored. According to the results of the analysis, before the mining permit was granted, the amount of carbon stored by the area in 2009 was calculated as 4400.23 tons. However, with the start of mining activities in 2011, nearly half of the trees in the area were cut down, which was caused this value to drop to 1911.12 tons. As a result of the mining activities that continued after this date, it was determined by 2021 that all the trees in the area were cut down, and the amount of carbon stored in the area decreased to zero.}, }
@article {pmid37255123, year = {2023}, author = {Cavalcante, AMB and Sampaio, ACP and Duarte, AS and Santos, MAFD}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of epiphytic cacti in the Caatinga biome, Brazil.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {95}, number = {2}, pages = {e20200904}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202320200904}, pmid = {37255123}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Cactaceae ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; }, abstract = {The Caatinga biome is the largest dry tropical forest region in South America as well as one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to the climate changes forecast for this century. Climate forecasts for the biome include increased air temperature, reduced rainfall and aridization. This biome does not have a homogeneous landscape; instead it has several rainforest enclaves. This article describes a study to model the potential distribution of four epiphytic cactus species (Epiphyllum phyllanthus (L.) Haw., Rhipsalis floccosa Salm-Dyck ex Pfeiff., Rhipsalis lindbergiana K. Schum and Rhipsalis russellii Britton &amp; Rose.) in the biome under future climate scenarios and traces out a prognosis for the enclaves and the biome. For that purpose, we used the MaxEnt modeling method, considering two future time intervals (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) and the interval 1961-1990 for the current situation, with the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The projections for future potential distribution showed a spatial contractions greater than 88% found in the areas of high potential presence for the target species throughout the biome and in all the scenarios. The results strengthen the expectation of aridization in the Caatinga biome, with the loss or shrinkage of rainforest enclaves as time progresses.}, }
@article {pmid37254792, year = {2023}, author = {Frémont, P and Gehlen, M and Jaillon, O}, title = {Plankton biogeography in the 21st century and impacts of climate change: advances through genomics.}, journal = {Comptes rendus biologies}, volume = {346}, number = {}, pages = {13-24}, doi = {10.5802/crbiol.107}, pmid = {37254792}, issn = {1768-3238}, mesh = {*Plankton/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; Genomics ; }, abstract = {This article summarizes recent advances in our knowledge of plankton biogeography obtained by genomic approaches and the impacts of global warming on it. Large-scale comparison of the genomic content of samples of different plankton size fractions revealed a partitioning of the oceans into genomic provinces and the impact of major oceanic currents on them. By defining ecological niches, these provinces are extrapolated to all oceans, with the exception of the Arctic Ocean. By the end of the 21st century, a major restructuring of these provinces is projected in response to a high emission greenhouse gas scenario over 50% of the surface of the studied oceans. Such a restructuring could lead to a decrease in export production by 4%. Finally, obtaining assembled sequences of a large number of plankton genomes defining this biogeography has allowed to better characterize the genomic content of the provinces and to identify the species structuring them. These genomes similarly enabled a better description of potential future changes of plankton communities under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37254462, year = {2023}, author = {Sanders, B and Davis, M}, title = {Effects of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Perinatal Health.}, journal = {Journal of midwifery &amp; women's health}, volume = {68}, number = {3}, pages = {383-390}, doi = {10.1111/jmwh.13522}, pmid = {37254462}, issn = {1542-2011}, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Female ; Humans ; Climate Change ; Irritants ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; *Asthma ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change is often framed as an environmental concern; however, the burning of fossil fuels both directly and indirectly impacts air quality and, thus, human health. Gas byproducts of combustion lead to increased levels of atmospheric ozone and carbon dioxide, which in turn elevate surface temperatures of the earth. This process exposes individuals to respiratory irritants and contributes to increased frequency of natural disasters such as wildfires, negatively impacting respiratory health. Normal physiologic changes in the respiratory system make pregnant people particularly vulnerable to the effects of air pollution. Asthma and allergic rhinitis are 2 common respiratory diseases that can be triggered by poor air quality. Solutions to limit the impact of climate change on respiratory disease include risk mitigation and reduction of fossil fuel consumption on individual, organization, and community levels. Midwives are well positioned as clinicians to educate people about individual strategies to reduce environmental exposure to respiratory irritants and advocate for policy changes to limit future health effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37253890, year = {2023}, author = {Houniuhi, C}, title = {Why I'm leading Pacific Islands students in the fight on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {618}, number = {7963}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-01751-1}, pmid = {37253890}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Pacific Islands ; *Students ; *Leadership ; United Nations/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Environmental Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid37252966, year = {2023}, author = {Hensel, MJS and Patrick, CJ and Orth, RJ and Wilcox, DJ and Dennison, WC and Gurbisz, C and Hannam, MP and Landry, JB and Moore, KA and Murphy, RR and Testa, JM and Weller, DE and Lefcheck, JS}, title = {Rise of Ruppia in Chesapeake Bay: Climate change-driven turnover of foundation species creates new threats and management opportunities.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {23}, pages = {e2220678120}, pmid = {37252966}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Alismatales/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Bays ; *Zosteraceae ; }, abstract = {Global change has converted many structurally complex and ecologically and economically valuable coastlines to bare substrate. In the structural habitats that remain, climate-tolerant and opportunistic species are increasing in response to environmental extremes and variability. The shifting of dominant foundation species identity with climate change poses a unique conservation challenge because species vary in their responses to environmental stressors and to management. Here, we combine 35 y of watershed modeling and biogeochemical water quality data with species comprehensive aerial surveys to describe causes and consequences of turnover in seagrass foundation species across 26,000 ha of habitat in the Chesapeake Bay. Repeated marine heatwaves have caused 54% retraction of the formerly dominant eelgrass (Zostera marina) since 1991, allowing 171% expansion of the temperature-tolerant widgeongrass (Ruppia maritima) that has likewise benefited from large-scale nutrient reductions. However, this phase shift in dominant seagrass identity now presents two significant shifts for management: Widgeongrass meadows are not only responsible for rapid, extensive recoveries but also for the largest crashes over the last four decades; and, while adapted to high temperatures, are much more susceptible than eelgrass to nutrient pulses driven by springtime runoff. Thus, by selecting for rapid post-disturbance recolonization but low resistance to punctuated freshwater flow disturbance, climate change could threaten the Chesapeake Bay seagrass' ability to provide consistent fishery habitat and sustain functioning over time. We demonstrate that understanding the dynamics of the next generation of foundation species is a critical management priority, because shifts from relatively stable habitat to high interannual variability can have far-reaching consequences across marine and terrestrial ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid37251898, year = {2023}, author = {Worku, TA and Aman, TF and Wubneh, MA and Manderso, TM}, title = {Impact of climate change on shumbrite small scale irrigation project, South Gojjam subbasin, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e16352}, pmid = {37251898}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change has the potential to affect climate parameters like rainfall and temperature which lead to a change in the irrigation water requirement of the irrigation system. As irrigation water requirement is highly dependent on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, climate change impact studies are necessary. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the irrigation water requirement of the Shumbrite irrigation project. For this study, climate variables of precipitation and temperature were generated from CORDEX-Africa simulations downscaled from MPI Global Circulation Model (GCM) under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The climate data covers from 1981 to 2005 for the baseline period and 2021-2045 for the future period for all scenarios. Future precipitation shows a decrease for all scenarios with a maximum decrease under RCP2.6 (4.2%) and temperature show an increase in the future as compared to the baseline period. The reference evapotranspiration and Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) were calculated by using CROPWAT 8.0 software. Results showed that the mean annual reference evapotranspiration is expected to increase in the future by 2.7%, 2.6%, and 3.3% for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 respectively as compared to the baseline period. Mean annual irrigation water requirement shows an increase of 2.58%, 0.74%, and 8.4% for the future under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 respectively. The Crop Water Requirement (CWR) also increases for the future period under all RCP scenarios, with maximum CWR for tomato, potato, and pepper crops. To ensure the sustainability of the project, crops with high irrigation water requirements should be replaced by other crops with low water requirements.}, }
@article {pmid37251829, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, Q and Akhtar, R and Saif, ANM and Akhter, H and Hossan, D and Alam, SMA and Bari, MF}, title = {The symmetric and asymmetric effects of climate change on rice productivity in Malaysia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e16118}, pmid = {37251829}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The current study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric effects of climate change (CC) on rice productivity (RP) in Malaysia. The Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models were employed in this study. Time series data from 1980 to 2019 were collected from the World Bank and the Department of Statistics, Malaysia. The estimated results are also validated using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR). The findings of symmetric ARDL show that rainfall and cultivated area have significant and advantageous effects on rice output. The NARDL-bound test outcomes display that climate change has an asymmetrical long-run impact on rice productivity. Climate change has had varying degrees of positive and negative impacts on rice productivity in Malaysia. Positive changes in temperature and rainfall have a substantial and destructive impact on RP. At the same time, negative variations in temperature and rainfall have a substantial and positive impact on rice production in the Malaysian agriculture sector. Changes in cultivated areas, both positive and negative, have a long-term optimistic impact on rice output. Additionally, we discovered that only temperature affects rice output in both directions. Malaysian policymakers must understand the symmetric and asymmetric effects of CC on RP and agricultural policies that will promote sustainable agricultural development and food security.}, }
@article {pmid37249649, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, K and Liu, X and Zhao, C and Pan, Q and Chen, X and Jiang, N and Du, C and Xu, Y and Shao, M and Qu, B}, title = {Nitrogen deposition further increases Ambrosia trifida root exudate invasiveness under global warming.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {6}, pages = {759}, pmid = {37249649}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {31770583//Effects of water and nutrient levels on the intergenerational plasticity of invasive plant phenotypes-Example of Xanthium strumarium/ ; 2019JH8/10200017//Mechanisms of invasive alien plant infestation and management measures in northwest Liaoning, Liaoning Provincial Science and Technology Department Agricultural Research and Industrialization Guidance Program/ ; }, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Ambrosia ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; Plants ; Soil ; Seedlings/chemistry ; Exudates and Transudates/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Invasive plants can change the soil ecological environment in the invasion area to adapt to their growth and reproduction through root exudates. Root exudates are the most direct manifestation of plant responses to external environmental changes, but there is a lack of studies on root exudates of invasive plants in the context of inevitable global warming and nitrogen deposition. In this research, we used widely targeted metabolomics to investigate Ambrosia trifida root exudates during seedling and maturity under warming and nitrogen deposition to reveal the possible mechanisms of A. trifida adaptation to climate change. The results showed that the organic acids increased under warming condition but decreased after nitrogen addition in the seedling stage. Phenolic acids increased greatly after nitrogen addition in the mature stage. Most phenolic acids were annotated in the phenylpropane metabolic pathway and tyrosine metabolism. Therefore, nitrogen deposition may increase the adaptability of A. trifida through root exudates, making it more invasive under global warming. The results provide new ideas for preventing and controlling the invasion of A. trifida under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37247194, year = {2023}, author = {Williams, CE and Williams, CL and Logan, ML}, title = {Climate change is not just global warming: Multidimensional impacts on animal gut microbiota.}, journal = {Microbial biotechnology}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {1736-1744}, pmid = {37247194}, issn = {1751-7915}, mesh = {Animals ; *Gastrointestinal Microbiome/physiology ; Climate Change ; Global Warming ; *Microbiota ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Climate change has rapidly altered many ecosystems, with detrimental effects for biodiversity across the globe. In recent years, it has become increasingly apparent that the microorganisms that live in and on animals can substantially affect host health and physiology, and the structure and function of these microbial communities can be highly sensitive to environmental variables. To date, most studies have focused on the effects of increasing mean temperature on gut microbiota, yet other aspects of climate are also shifting, including temperature variation, seasonal dynamics, precipitation and the frequency of severe weather events. This array of environmental pressures might interact in complex and non-intuitive ways to impact gut microbiota and consequently alter animal fitness. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on animals requires a consideration of multiple types of environmental stressors and their interactive effects on gut microbiota. Here, we present an overview of some of the major findings in research on climatic effects on microbial communities in the animal gut. Although ample evidence has now accumulated that shifts in mean temperature can have important effects on gut microbiota and their hosts, much less work has been conducted on the effects of other climatic variables and their interactions. We provide recommendations for additional research needed to mechanistically link climate change with shifts in animal gut microbiota and host fitness.}, }
@article {pmid37246703, year = {2022}, author = {Fatimi, AS and Mahmud, O}, title = {The costs of protecting health in the face of climate change - feasibility lies in proactivity.}, journal = {JPMA. The Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association}, volume = {72}, number = {12}, pages = {2584}, doi = {10.47391/JPMA.6641}, pmid = {37246703}, issn = {0030-9982}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Feasibility Studies ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid37246385, year = {2023}, author = {Malchow, AK and Hartig, F and Reeg, J and Kéry, M and Zurell, D}, title = {Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {1881}, pages = {20220194}, pmid = {37246385}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Bayes Theorem ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; *Birds ; }, abstract = {Species respond to climate change with range and abundance dynamics. To better explain and predict them, we need a mechanistic understanding of how the underlying demographic processes are shaped by climatic conditions. Here, we aim to infer demography-climate relationships from distribution and abundance data. For this, we developed spatially explicit, process-based models for eight Swiss breeding bird populations. These jointly consider dispersal, population dynamics and the climate-dependence of three demographic processes-juvenile survival, adult survival and fecundity. The models were calibrated to 267 nationwide abundance time series in a Bayesian framework. The fitted models showed moderate to excellent goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power. The most influential climatic predictors for population performance were the mean breeding-season temperature and the total winter precipitation. Contemporary climate change benefitted the population trends of typical mountain birds leading to lower population losses or even slight increases, whereas lowland birds were adversely affected. Our results emphasize that generic process-based models embedded in a robust statistical framework can improve our predictions of range dynamics and may allow disentangling of the underlying processes. For future research, we advocate a stronger integration of experimental and empirical studies in order to gain more precise insights into the mechanisms by which climate affects populations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.}, }
@article {pmid37244686, year = {2023}, author = {Yaqoob, E and Javed, S and Khan, SA}, title = {Trauma care in the face of climate change in Pakistan.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {401}, number = {10390}, pages = {1769-1770}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00927-3}, pmid = {37244686}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Pakistan ; Agriculture ; Floods ; *Emergency Medical Services ; }, }
@article {pmid37244533, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, Z and Xing, A and Shen, H}, title = {Effects of nitrogen addition on the combined global warming potential of three major soil greenhouse gases: A global meta-analysis.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {334}, number = {}, pages = {121848}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121848}, pmid = {37244533}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Soil ; Nitrogen ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {Increased nitrogen (N) deposition has a great impact on soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and numerous studies have revealed the individual effects of N addition on three major GHGs (CO2, CH4, and N2O). Nevertheless, quantitative evaluation of the effects of N addition on the global warming potential (GWP) of GHGs based on simultaneous measurements is needed not only to better understand the comprehensive effect of N deposition on GHGs but also for precise estimation of ecosystem GHG fluxes in response to N deposition. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis using a dataset with 124 simultaneous measurements of the three major GHGs from 54 studies to assess the effects of N addition on the combined global warming potential (CGWP) of these soil GHGs. The results showed that the relative sensitivity of the CGWP to N addition was 0.43%/kg N ha[-1] yr[-1], indicating an increase in the CGWP. Among the ecosystems studied, wetlands are considerable GHG sources with the highest relative sensitivity to N addition. Overall, CO2 contributed the most to the N addition-induced CGWP change (72.61%), followed by N2O (27.02%) and CH4 (0.37%), but the contributions of the three GHGs varied across ecosystems. Moreover, the effect size of the CGWP had a positive relationship with N addition rate and mean annual temperature and a negative relationship with mean annual precipitation. Our findings suggest that N deposition may influence global warming from the perspective of the CGWP of CO2, CH4, and N2O. Our results also provide reference values that may reduce uncertainties in future projections of the effects of N deposition on GHGs.}, }
@article {pmid37244017, year = {2023}, author = {Chang, H and Zhao, Y and Bisinella, V and Damgaard, A and Christensen, TH}, title = {Climate change impacts of conventional sewage sludge treatment and disposal.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {240}, number = {}, pages = {120109}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.120109}, pmid = {37244017}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {*Sewage/analysis ; *Waste Disposal, Fluid/methods ; Climate Change ; Incineration ; }, abstract = {Sewage sludge (SS) management remains a challenge across the world. We quantified the potential climate change impacts of eight conventional technology configurations (TCs) for SS treatment and disposal by considering four different energy exchanges and using a life cycle assessment (LCA) model that employed uncertainty distributions for 104 model parameters. All TCs showed large climate change loads and savings (net values ranging from 123 to 1148 kg CO2-eq/t TS) when the energy exchange was with a fossil-based energy system, whereas loads and savings were approximately three times lower when the energy exchange was with a renewable energy system. Uncertainty associated with the climate change results was more than 100% with fossil-energy exchange and low TS content of SS but was lower for renewable energy. Landfilling had the greatest climate change impact, while thermal drying with incineration had the highest probability of providing better climate change performance than other TCs. The global sensitivity analysis identified nine critical technological parameters. Many of them can be easily measured for relevant SS and technology levels to improve specific estimates of climate change impact. When all scenarios were optimized to the 20% best cases, thermal drying with incineration outperformed the other TCs. This paper contributes to better quantifying the climate change impacts of different technologies used for sludge treatment given changing energy systems and identifies crucial parameters for further technological development.}, }
@article {pmid37239610, year = {2023}, author = {Rogers, HH and Tucker, M and Couig, MP and Svihla, V}, title = {Facilitating an Interprofessional Course on Climate Change and Public Health Preparedness.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {37239610}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Learning ; Students ; Professional Competence ; Interprofessional Relations ; }, abstract = {In this paper, we share the theories that guided the design of an interprofessional education course on Climate Change and Public Health Preparedness and how the course supported students' professional interest and action competence as they move through their education and into their professional work in the context of our unfolding climate crisis. The course was guided by the public health emergency preparedness domains and was built to allow for students to explore applications of the content for themselves and their own profession. We designed the learning activities to support personal and professional interest development and help students move into perceived and demonstrated action competence. For the evaluation of our course, we asked the following research questions: What kinds of personal and professional commitments to action did students propose by the end of the course? Did these vary in depth and specificity and by the number of credits they enrolled in? In what ways did students develop personal and professional action competence over the course? Finally, how did they show personal, professional, and collective agency related to the course content on adaptation, preparedness, and mitigation of the health impacts from climate change? Using qualitative analysis guided by action competence and interest development theories, we coded student writing from course assignments. We also conducted comparative statistical analysis to assess differential impacts for students who enrolled for one versus three credits. The results show that this course design supported students' progression of knowledge and perceived ability in specific individual and professional collective actions to reduce the health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37239608, year = {2023}, author = {Longman, J and Patrick, R and Bernays, S and Charlson, F}, title = {Three Reasons Why Expecting 'Recovery' in the Context of the Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change Is Problematic.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {37239608}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Global warming is bringing with it continued long-term changes in the climate system. Extreme weather-related events, which are already becoming a daily reality around the world, are predicted to be more intense and frequent in the future. The widespread occurrence of these events and climate change more broadly are being experienced collectively and at scale and do not affect populations evenly. These climate changes have profound impacts on mental health and wellbeing. Existing reactive responses include frequent implied and direct references to the concept of 'recovery'. This is problematic in three ways: it conceives of extreme weather events as single, one-off occurrences; implies their unexpected nature; and contains an integral assumption of an end point where individuals/communities are 'recovered'. Models of mental health and wellbeing support (including funding) need to change, shifting away from 'recovery' towards a focus on adaptation. We argue that this presents a more constructive approach that may be used to collectively support communities.}, }
@article {pmid37237131, year = {2023}, author = {Adam, D and Thompson, B}, title = {Audio long read: Can giant surveys of scientists fight misinformation on COVID, climate change and more?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-01706-6}, pmid = {37237131}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37236933, year = {2023}, author = {Li, ZJ and Yu, CY and Liu, SY and Yan, RH and Huang, XD and Liu, XJ and Chen, ZC and Wang, T}, title = {Radial growth responses of three coniferous species to climate change on the southern slope of Funiu Mountains, China.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {1178-1186}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202305.004}, pmid = {37236933}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Tracheophyta ; Trees ; China ; Global Warming ; *Pinus ; }, abstract = {Funiu Mountains are located in a transition region between warm temperate zone and northern subtropical region, where a variety of plant species are distributed with sensitive response to climate change. Their response characteristics to climate change are still unclear. We developed the basal area increment (BAI) index chronologies of Pinus tabuliformis, P. armandii, and P. massoniana in the Funiu Mountains to examine their growth trend and their sensitivity to climatic change. The results showed that the BAI chronologies gave a clue that the three conife-rous species had similar radial growth rate. The large Gleichlufigkeit (GLK) indices among the three BAI chronologies also indicated that the three species had a similar growth trend. Results of correlation analysis showed that the three species also had similar response to climatic change to a certain extent. Radial growth of all the three species was significantly positively correlated with the total monthly precipitation in December of previous year and June of the current year, but negatively correlated with the precipitation in September and the mean monthly temperature in June of the current year. There were some differences in the responses of the three coniferous to climate change. P. massoniana had a significant negative correlation with the mean temperature in March, and a significant positive correlation with the precipitation in March, while P. armandii and P. massoniana were affected negatively by the maximum temperature in August. Results of the moving correlation analysis showed that the three coniferous species had some similar sensitivity to climate change. Their positive responses to precipitation in previous December consistently increased, as well as the negative correlation with precipitation in current September. As to P. masso-niana, they had a relatively stronger climatic sensitivity and higher stability than the other two species. It would be more suitable for P. massoniana trees on the southern slope of the Funiu Mountains under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid37235585, year = {2023}, author = {Veldhuizen, R}, title = {[Climate change and the health frame].}, journal = {Nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde}, volume = {167}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37235585}, issn = {1876-8784}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change is framed often as a health issue, to urge quick action and policy. But a health frame doesn't seamlessly mix well with existing frames and climate change, and there is no guarantee that a health frame will finally convince people into action.}, }
@article {pmid37235037, year = {2023}, author = {Tanaka, K and Mudgil, Y and Tunc-Ozdemir, M}, title = {Editorial: Abiotic stress and plant immunity - a challenge in climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1197435}, pmid = {37235037}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid37234617, year = {2023}, author = {Fanta, SS and Yesuf, MB and Demissie, TA}, title = {Investigation of climate change impact on the optimal operation of koka reservoir, upper awash watershed, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e16287}, pmid = {37234617}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The objectives of this study were to predict the inflow and optimal operation of the Koka reservoir under the impact of climate change for the 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070), and 2080s (2071-2100) with respect to the reference period (1981-2010). The optimal elevation, storage, and hydropower capacity were modeled using the HEC-ResPRM, whereas the inflow to Koka reservoir was simulated using the calibrated SWAT model. Based on the result, the average annual inflow of the reference period was 139.675 Million Cubic Meter (MCM). However, from 2011 to 2100 an increase of +4.179% to +11.694 is expected. The inflow analysis at different flow regimes shows that the high flow may decline by (-28.528%) to (-22.856%) due to climate change. On the other hand, the low flow is projected to increase by (+78.407%) to (+90.401%) as compared to the low flow of the reference period. Therefore, the impact of climate change on the inflow to the Koka reservoir is positive. The study also indicates that the optimum values of elevation and storage capacity of the Koka reservoir during the reference period were 1590.771 m above mean sea level (a.m.s.l) and 1860.818 MCM, respectively. However, the optimum level and storage capacity are expected to change by (-0.016%) to (-0.039%) and (-2.677%) to (+6.164%), respectively from 2020s to 2080s as compared with their corresponding values during the reference period. On the other hand, the optimum power capacity during the reference period was 16.489 MCM, while it will likely fluctuates between (-0.948%) - (+0.386%) in the face of climate change. The study shows that the optimum elevation, storage, and power capacity were all higher than the corresponding observed values. However, the occurrence month of their peak value will likely shift due to climate change. The study can be used as a first-hand information for the development of reservoir operation guidelines that can account for the uncertainty caused by the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37233255, year = {2023}, author = {Sztandera-Tymoczek, M and Szuster-Ciesielska, A}, title = {Fungal Aeroallergens-The Impact of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {37233255}, issn = {2309-608X}, support = {No 2019/35/B/NZ6/00472//National Science Centre, Poland/ ; }, abstract = {The incidence of allergic diseases worldwide is rapidly increasing, making allergies a modern pandemic. This article intends to review published reports addressing the role of fungi as causative agents in the development of various overreactivity-related diseases, mainly affecting the respiratory tract. After presenting the basic information on the mechanisms of allergic reactions, we describe the impact of fungal allergens on the development of the allergic diseases. Human activity and climate change have an impact on the spread of fungi and their plant hosts. Particular attention should be paid to microfungi, i.e., plant parasites that may be an underestimated source of new allergens.}, }
@article {pmid37233104, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, T and Liu, H and Wang, Y and Yang, Y}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution Pattern of Osphya (Coleoptera: Melandryidae), an Old but Small Beetle Group Distributed in the Northern Hemisphere.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {37233104}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {No. 31772507//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; No. 32270491//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; No. C2022201005//Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province/ ; No. 605020521005//Excellent Youth Scientific Research and Innovation Team of Hebei University/ ; No. DXK202103//Interdisciplinary Research Program of Natural Science of Hebei University/ ; }, abstract = {Exploring the development of species distribution patterns under climate change is the basis of biogeography and macroecology. However, under the background of global climate change, few studies focus on how the distribution pattern and the range of insects have or will change in response to long-term climate change. An old but small, Northern-Hemisphere-distributed beetle group Osphya is an ideal subject to conduct the study in this aspect. Here, based on a comprehensive geographic dataset, we analyzed the global distribution pattern of Osphya using ArcGIS techniques, which declared a discontinuous and uneven distribution pattern across the USA, Europe, and Asia. Furthermore, we predicted the suitable habitats of Osphya under different climate scenarios via the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the high suitability areas were always concentrated in the European Mediterranean and the western coast of USA, while a low suitability exhibited in Asia. Moreover, by integrating the analyses of biogeography and habitat suitability, we inferred that the Osphya species conservatively prefer a warm, stable, and rainy climate, and they tend to expand towards higher latitude in response to the climate warming from the past to future. These results are helpful in exploring the species diversity and protection of Osphya.}, }
@article {pmid37233103, year = {2023}, author = {Gao, H and Qian, Q and Liu, L and Xu, D}, title = {Predicting the Distribution of Sclerodermus sichuanensis (Hymenoptera: Bethylidae) under Climate Change in China.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {37233103}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {20A007, 20E051, 21E040 and 22kA011//China West Normal University/ ; 2022NSFSC0986//Sichuan Province Science and Technology/ ; }, abstract = {Sclerodermus sichuanensis is the natural enemy of the longicorn beetle due to its strong attack ability and high parasitic rate. Its good resistance and fecundity make it have significant biological control value. The Maxent model and ArcGIS software were used to simulate the current distribution of S. sichuanensis in China by combining the known distribution information and environmental variables and predict the suitable area of the 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2081-2000) under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5. and SSP5-8.5). The results showed that the Mean Diurnal Range (bio2), Min Temperature of the Coldest Month (bio6), Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter (bio18), and Max Temperature of the Warmest Month (bio5) were the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of S. sichuanensis. Southwest China and part of North China are the main concentrations of the current high-suitability areas of S. sichuanensis. The moderately suitable areas are concentrated in South China and Central China. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the suitable area predicted in the 2050s will expand significantly to North China and Northwest China, with a total increase of 81,295 km[2]. This work provides an essential reference for future research on S. sichuanensis and the application of forestry pest control.}, }
@article {pmid37232282, year = {2023}, author = {Biagioni, B and Cecchi, L and D'Amato, G and Annesi-Maesano, I}, title = {Environmental influences on childhood asthma: Climate change.}, journal = {Pediatric allergy and immunology : official publication of the European Society of Pediatric Allergy and Immunology}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {e13961}, doi = {10.1111/pai.13961}, pmid = {37232282}, issn = {1399-3038}, mesh = {Humans ; *Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Climate Change ; *Asthma/epidemiology/etiology ; *Air Pollution ; Allergens ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a key environmental factor for allergic respiratory diseases, especially in childhood. This review describes the influences of climate change on childhood asthma considering the factors acting directly, indirectly and with their amplifying interactions. Recent findings on the direct effects of temperature and weather changes, as well as the influences of climate change on air pollution, allergens, biocontaminants and their interplays, are discussed herein. The review also focusses on the impact of climate change on biodiversity loss and on migration status as a model to study environmental effects on childhood asthma onset and progression. Adaptation and mitigation strategies are urgently needed to prevent further respiratory diseases and human health damage in general, especially in younger and future generations.}, }
@article {pmid37231045, year = {2023}, author = {Hadré, E and Küpper, J and Tschirschwitz, J and Mengert, M and Labuhn, I}, title = {Quantifying generational and geographical inequality of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {8483}, pmid = {37231045}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {We relate greenhouse gas emissions and global warming experienced over a lifetime by individual birth cohorts, resolved by world regions. We reveal outstanding geographical inequality between high- and low-emission regions corresponding to the nations of the Global North and Global South, respectively. Additionally, we highlight the inequality different birth cohorts (generations) experience regarding the burden of recent and ongoing warming temperatures as a time-delayed consequence of past emissions. We achieve precise quantification of the number of birth cohorts and populations who see a difference between Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), emphasizing the potential for action and the chances for improvement that exist under the different scenarios. The method is designed to realistically display inequality, as it is experienced by people while motivating action and change needed to achieve emission reduction to reduce climate change and generational and geographical inequality simultaneously.}, }
@article {pmid37230822, year = {2023}, author = {Leschied, JR and Maturen, KE and Brown, M and Hanneman, K and Schoen, JH and Zigmund, B and Northrup, BE and Gross, JS and Dave, P and Woolen, SA and Henry, C and Quirk, CR and Hijaz, TA and Zalis, ME and Scheel, JR}, title = {Letter to the Editor: Radiology Action for Climate Change.}, journal = {Academic radiology}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {2435-2436}, doi = {10.1016/j.acra.2023.04.025}, pmid = {37230822}, issn = {1878-4046}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Radiography ; *Radiology ; }, }
@article {pmid37229346, year = {2023}, author = {Alcantara, LB and Creencia, LA and Madarcos, JRV and Madarcos, KG and Jontila, JBS and Culhane, F}, title = {Climate change awareness and risk perceptions in the coastal marine ecosystem of Palawan, Philippines.}, journal = {UCL open. Environment}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {e054}, pmid = {37229346}, issn = {2632-0886}, abstract = {Understanding coastal communities' awareness and risk perceptions of climate change impact is essential in developing effective risk communication tools and mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of these communities. In this study, we examined coastal communities' climate change awareness and risk perceptions of climate change impact on the coastal marine ecosystem, sea level rise impact on the mangrove ecosystem and as a factor affecting coral reefs and seagrass beds. The data were gathered by conducting face-to-face surveys with 291 respondents from the coastal areas of Taytay, Aborlan and Puerto Princesa in Palawan, Philippines. Results showed that most participants (82%) perceived that climate change is happening and a large majority (75%) perceived it as a risk to the coastal marine ecosystem. Local temperature rise and excessive rainfall were found to be significant predictors of climate change awareness. Sea level rise was perceived by most participants (60%) to cause coastal erosion and to affect the mangrove ecosystem. On coral reefs and seagrass ecosystems, anthropogenic drivers and climate change were perceived to have a high impact, while marine livelihoods had a low impact. In addition, we found that climate change risk perceptions were influenced by direct experiences of extreme weather events (i.e., temperature rise and excessive rainfall) and climate-related livelihood damages (i.e., declining income). Climate change risk perceptions were also found to vary with household income, education, age group and geographical location. The results suggest that addressing poverty and effectively communicating climate change risks can improve climate change awareness and risk perceptions.}, }
@article {pmid37229125, year = {2023}, author = {Costa, JM and Egipto, R and Aguiar, FC and Marques, P and Nogales, A and Madeira, M}, title = {The role of soil temperature in mediterranean vineyards in a climate change context.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1145137}, pmid = {37229125}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The wine sector faces important challenges related to sustainability issues and the impact of climate change. More frequent extreme climate conditions (high temperatures coupled with severe drought periods) have become a matter of concern for the wine sector of typically dry and warm regions, such as the Mediterranean European countries. Soil is a natural resource crucial to sustaining the equilibrium of ecosystems, economic growth and people's prosperity worldwide. In viticulture, soils have a great influence on crop performance (growth, yield and berry composition) and wine quality, as the soil is a central component of the terroir. Soil temperature (ST) affects multiple physical, chemical and biological processes occurring in the soil as well as in plants growing on it. Moreover, the impact of ST is stronger in row crops such as grapevine, since it favors soil exposition to radiation and favors evapotranspiration. The role of ST on crop performance remains poorly described, especially under more extreme climatic conditions. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of ST in vineyards (vine plants, weeds, microbiota) can help to better manage and predict vineyards' performance, plant-soil relations and soil microbiome under more extreme climate conditions. In addition, soil and plant thermal data can be integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) to support vineyard management. In this paper, the role of ST in Mediterranean vineyards is reviewed namely in terms of its effect on vines' ecophysiological and agronomical performance and its relation with soil properties and soil management strategies. The potential use of imaging approaches, e.g. thermography, is discussed as an alternative or complementary tool to assess ST and vertical canopy temperature profiles/gradients in vineyards. Soil management strategies to mitigate the negative impact of climate change, optimize ST variation and crop thermal microclimate (leaf and berry) are proposed and discussed, with emphasis on Mediterranean systems.}, }
@article {pmid37229119, year = {2023}, author = {Umair, M and Hu, X and Cheng, Q and Ali, S and Ni, J}, title = {Distribution patterns of fern species richness along elevations the Tibetan Plateau in China: regional differences and effects of climate change variables.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1178603}, pmid = {37229119}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Because of its distinct geological history, frigid temperature, and rich biodiversity, the Tibetan Plateau gives an excellent opportunity to assess the effect of climate change on determining species richness. The distribution patterns of fern species richness and their underlying processes have long been a matter of debate in ecology research, with various hypotheses suggested over the years. Here, we explore richness patterns of fern species in Xizang on the southern and western Tibetan Plateau along an elevational gradient (100-5300 m a.s.l.) and evaluate climatic factors causing the spatial decrease and increase of fern species richness. We used regression and correlation analyses to relate the species richness with elevation and climatic variables. Throughout our research, we identified 441 fern species from 97 genera and 30 families. The Dryopteridaceae family (S = 97) has the highest number of species. All energy-temperature and moisture variables except drought index (DI) had a significant correlation with elevation. The altitude has a unimodal relationship with fern species, and the species richness is the largest at an altitude of 2500 m. The horizontal richness pattern of fern species on the Tibetan Plateau also showed that areas of extremely high species richness are mainly distributed in Zayü and Mêdog County, with an average elevation of 2800 m and 2500 m, respectively. The richness of fern species has a log-linear relationship with moisture-related factors such as moisture index (MI), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and drought index (DI). Because the peak corresponds spatially with the MI index, the unimodal patterns confirm the significance of moisture on fern distributions. Our results showed that mid-altitudes have the highest species richness (high MI), but high elevations have lower richness due to high solar radiation, and low elevations have lower richness due to high temperatures and low precipitation. Twenty-two of the total species are classified as nearly threatened, vulnerable or critically endangered, and varied in elevation from 800 m to 4200 m. Such relationships between the distribution and richness of fern species and climates on the Tibetan Plateau can provide data support for future predictions of the impacts of climate change scenarios on fern species, the ecological protection of representative fern species, and references for the planning and construction of nature reserves in the future.}, }
@article {pmid37229107, year = {2023}, author = {Gao, M and Zhao, G and Zhang, S and Wang, Z and Wen, X and Liu, L and Zhang, C and Tie, N and Sa, R}, title = {Priority conservation area of Larix gmelinii under climate change: application of an ensemble modeling.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1177307}, pmid = {37229107}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen is a major tree species with high economic and ecological value in the Greater Khingan Mountains coniferous forest of Northeast China. Reconstructing the priority Conservation Area of Larix gmelinii under Climate could provide a scientific basis for its germplasm conservation and management. The present study used ensemble and Marxan model simulations to predict species distribution areas and delineate priority conservation areas for Larix gmelinii in relation to productivity characteristics, understory plant diversity characteristics, and climate change impacts. The study revealed that the Greater Khingan Mountains and the Xiaoxing'an Mountains, with an area of approximately 300 974.2 km[2], were the most suitable for L. gmelinii. The stand productivity of L. gmelinii in the most suitable area was significantly higher than that in the less suitable and marginally suitable areas, but understory plant diversity was not dominant. The increase in temperature under future climate change scenarios will reduce the potential distribution and area under L. gmelinii; the species will migrate to higher latitudes of the Greater Khingan Mountains, while the degree of niche migration will gradually increase. Under the 2090s-SSP585 climate scenario, the most suitable area for L. gmelinii will completely disappear, and the climate model niche will be completely separated. Therefore, the protected area of L. gmelinii was demarcated with a target of the productivity characteristics, understory plant diversity characteristics and climate change sensitive area, and the current key protected area was 8.38 × 10[4] km[2]. Overall, the study's findings will lay a foundation for the protection and rational development and utilization of cold temperate coniferous forests dominated by L. gmelinii in the northern forested region of the Greater Khingan Mountains.}, }
@article {pmid37228197, year = {2023}, author = {Chmura, HE and Duncan, C and Burrell, G and Barnes, BM and Buck, CL and Williams, CT}, title = {Climate change is altering the physiology and phenology of an arctic hibernator.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {380}, number = {6647}, pages = {846-849}, doi = {10.1126/science.adf5341}, pmid = {37228197}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Hibernation/physiology ; *Sciuridae/physiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate warming is rapid in the Arctic, yet impacts to biological systems are unclear because few long-term studies linking biophysiological processes with environmental conditions exist for this data-poor region. In our study spanning 25 years in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that climate change is affecting the timing of freeze-thaw cycles in the active layer of permafrost soils and altering the physiology of arctic ground squirrels (Urocitellus parryii). Soil freeze has been delayed and, in response, arctic ground squirrels have delayed when they up-regulate heat production during torpor to prevent freezing. Further, the termination of hibernation in spring has advanced 4 days per decade in females but not males. Continued warming and phenological shifts will alter hibernation energetics, change the seasonal availability of this important prey species, and potentially disrupt intraspecific interactions.}, }
@article {pmid37225816, year = {2023}, author = {Graham, F}, title = {Daily briefing: What 1.5 ℃ of global warming really means.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-01720-8}, pmid = {37225816}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid37223754, year = {2023}, author = {Sun, H and Ma, J and Wang, L}, title = {Changes in per capita wheat production in China in the context of climate change and population growth.}, journal = {Food security}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {597-612}, pmid = {37223754}, issn = {1876-4517}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: To address challenges associated with climate change, population growth and decline in international trade linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, determining whether national crop production can meet populations' requirements and contribute to socio-economic resilience is crucial. Three crop models and three global climate models were used in conjunction with predicted population changes. Compared with wheat production in 2000-2010, total production and per capita wheat production were significantly (P < 0.05) increase in 2020-2030, 2030-2040 and 2040-2050, respectively, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 due to climate change in China. However, when considering population and climate changes, the predicted per capita production values were 125.3 ± 0.3, 127.1 ± 2.3 and 128.8 ± 2.7 kg during the 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2040-2050 periods under RCP4.5, or 126.2 ± 0.7, 128.7 ± 2.5, and 131.0 ± 4.1 kg, respectively, under RCP8.5. These values do not significantly differ (P > 0.05) from the baseline level (127.9 ± 1.3 kg). The average per capita production in Loess Plateau and Gansu-Xinjiang subregions declined. In contrast, per capita production in the Huanghuai, Southwestern China, and Middle-Lower Yangtze Valleys subregions increased. The results suggest that climate change will increase total wheat production in China, but population change will partly offset the benefits to the grain market. In addition, domestic grain trade will be influenced by both climate and population changes. Wheat supply capacity will decline in the main supply areas. Further research is required to address effects of the changes on more crops and in more countries to obtain deeper understanding of the implications of climate change and population growth for global food production and assist formulation of robust policies to enhance food security.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-023-01351-x.}, }
@article {pmid37223655, year = {2023}, author = {Tirivangasi, HM and Dzvimbo, MA and Chaminuka, N and Mawonde, A}, title = {Assessing climate change and urban poverty in the context of the COVID 19 lockdowns: Rethinking personality and societal challenges in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Scientific African}, volume = {20}, number = {}, pages = {e01710}, pmid = {37223655}, issn = {2468-2276}, abstract = {The study explored the challenges urbanites faced due to climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. Urban vulnerability ills such as food insecurity, poverty and malnutrition have increased as climate change and COVID-19 jointly affect societies. Urban residents have resorted to urban farming and street vending as coping strategies. COVID-19 protocols and strategies for social distancing have compromised the urban poor livelihoods. Due to lockdown protocols such as curfew, closure of businesses, and the limited number of people doing certain activities, the urban poor often compromised lockdown rules to earn a living. The study used document analysis to gather data on climate change and poverty amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Academic journals, newspaper articles, books and information from various reliable websites were used for data collection. Content and thematic analysis were used to analyse data, while data triangulation from various sources enhanced data reliability and trustworthiness. The study found that climate change increased food insecurity in urban areas. Low agricultural output and climate change impacts compromised food availability and affordability for urbanites. The COVID-19 protocols increased financial constraints on urbanites as lockdown restrictions negatively impacted income from formal and informal jobs. The study recommends looking beyond the virus for prevention strategies to improve poor peoples' livelihoods. Countries must develop response strategies to cushion the urban poor from climate change and the COVID-19 impact. Developing countries are urged to sustainably adapt to climate change through scientific innovation to promote people's livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid37221260, year = {2023}, author = {Abermann, J and Vandecrux, B and Scher, S and Löffler, K and Schalamon, F and Trügler, A and Fausto, R and Schöner, W}, title = {Learning from Alfred Wegener's pioneering field observations in West Greenland after a century of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {7583}, pmid = {37221260}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {P35388//Austrian Science Fund/ ; }, abstract = {The cryosphere in Greenland is currently undergoing strong changes. While remote sensing improves our understanding of spatial and temporal changes across scales, particularly our knowledge of conditions during the pre-satellite era is fragmented. Therefore, high-quality field data from that period can be particularly valuable to better understand changes of the cryosphere in Greenland at climate time scales. At Graz University, the last work-place of Alfred Wegener we have access to the extensive expedition results from their epic 1929-1931 expedition to Greenland. The expedition coincides with the warmest phase of the Arctic early twentieth century warm period. We present an overview of the main findings of the Wegener expedition archive and set it into context with further monitoring activities that occurred since, as well as the results from reanalysis products and satellite imagery. We find that firn temperatures have increased significantly, while snow and firn densities and have remained similar or decreased since. Local conditions at the Qaamarujup Sermia have changed strongly, with a reduction in length of more than 2 km, in thickness by up to 120 m and a rise in terminus position of approximately 300 m. The elevation of the snow line of the years 1929 and 1930 was similar to the one from the extreme years 2012 and 2019. Compared to the satellite era, we find that during the time of the Wegener expedition fjord ice extent was smaller in early spring and larger in late spring. We demonstrate that a well-documented snapshot of archival data can provide a local and regional context for contemporary climate change and that it can serve as the basis for process-based studies on the atmospheric drivers of glacier changes.}, }
@article {pmid37220132, year = {2023}, author = {Guidoboni, MV and Duparque, A and Boissy, J and Mouny, JC and Auberger, J and van der Werf, HM}, title = {Conservation agriculture reduces climate change impact of a popcorn and wheat crop rotation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {5}, pages = {e0285586}, pmid = {37220132}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Triticum ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; Agriculture ; Soil ; Crops, Agricultural ; Crop Production ; }, abstract = {Urgent action is needed to ensure humanity's future under climate change. Agriculture faces major challenges as it is both influenced by and contributes to climate change. Conservation agriculture sequesters carbon (C) in the soil due to practices such as reduced tillage and planting of cover crops. This study assessed effects of an innovative conservation agriculture popcorn (Zea mays) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) crop rotation in south-western France on soil C sequestration, GHG emissions and several environmental impacts. Two complementary approaches were used: i) a comparison based on field data and expert judgement to assess short-term effects and ii) modelling of three scenarios to quantify long-term outcomes. In both approaches Life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to compare popcorn and wheat rotations. The conventional rotation used ploughing, and its soil was bare between wheat harvest and popcorn sowing. Conservation agriculture used reduced tillage, cover crops, and compost of green waste. Impacts of compost production were allocated mainly to its waste treatment function, based on waste treatment cost and compost price. Simulation modelling of soil C was used to estimate the amount of C sequestered by the conservation and conventional crop rotations. LCA was combined with soil C modelling over 100 years to assess the long-term climate change impact of three scenarios for the popcorn and wheat rotation. These scenarios were 1) Conventional agriculture, 2) Conservation agriculture with cover crops only, 3) Conservation agriculture with cover crops + compost. Mean annual C sequestration and net climate change impact were -0.24 t/ha and 3867 kg CO2-eq./ha, respectively, for the conventional rotation and 0.91 t/ha and 434 kg CO2-eq./ha, respectively, for the conservation rotation. The climate change impact of the conservation rotation depended strongly on the allocation of composting impacts between the waste treatment and compost production functions. Compared to the conventional rotation, the conservation rotation had a lower marine eutrophication impact (-7%) but higher impacts for terrestrial acidification (+9%), land competition (+3%), and cumulative energy demand (+2%). Modelling over 100 years revealed that, at near soil C equilibrium, a conventional scenario lost 9% of soil C, whereas conservation agriculture scenarios gained 14% (only cover crop) and 26% of soil C (cover crop + compost). Conservation agriculture resulted in soil C sequestration over several decades, until a new soil C equilibrium was reached.}, }
@article {pmid37219887, year = {2023}, author = {Bernhardt, JM and Breakey, S and Sipe, M and Nicholas, PK}, title = {The Future of Nursing 2020-2030: The Critical Role of Nurses and Nurse Leaders in Addressing the Health Impacts of Climate Change.}, journal = {The Journal of nursing administration}, volume = {53}, number = {6}, pages = {E1-E3}, pmid = {37219887}, issn = {1539-0721}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; Leadership ; *Nurses ; }, abstract = {Climate change represents a looming health challenge and a critical area for nursing leadership at all levels of organizations and settings. With a lens on The Future of Nursing 2020-2030: Charting a Path to Achieve Health Equity, addressing climate change-related health consequences should be a major focus and spotlight for nurses and nurse leaders with a lens on individuals, communities, populations, and from a national and global perspective.}, }
@article {pmid37219776, year = {2023}, author = {Asadgol, Z and Badirzadeh, A and Mirahmadi, H and Safari, H and Mohammadi, H and Gholami, M}, title = {Simulation of the potential impact of climate change on malaria incidence using artificial neural networks (ANNs).}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {30}, pages = {75349-75368}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-023-27374-7}, pmid = {37219776}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; Incidence ; Climate Change ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; Neural Networks, Computer ; Temperature ; *Communicable Diseases ; }, abstract = {Climate change can increase the spread of infectious diseases and public health concerns. Malaria is one of the endemic infectious diseases of Iran, whose transmission is strongly influenced by climatic conditions. The effect of climate change on malaria in the southeastern Iran from 2021 to 2050 was simulated by using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Gamma test (GT) and general circulation models (GCMs) were used to determine the best delay time and to generate the future climate model under two distinct scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). To simulate the various impacts of climate change on malaria infection, ANNs were applied using daily collected data for 12 years (from 2003 to 2014). The future climate of the study area will be hotter by 2050. The simulation of malaria cases elucidated that there is an intense increasing trend in malaria cases under the RCP8.5 scenario until 2050, with the highest number of infections occurring in the warmer months. Rainfall and maximum temperature were identified as the most influential input variables. Optimum temperatures and increased rainfall provide a suitable environment for the transmission of parasites and cause an intense increase in the number of infection cases with a delay of approximately 90 days. ANNs were introduced as a practical tool for simulating the impact of climate change on the prevalence, geographic distribution, and biological activity of malaria and for estimating the future trend of the disease in order to adopt protective measures in endemic areas.}, }
@article {pmid37214605, year = {2023}, author = {Beridze, B and Sękiewicz, K and Walas, &#x141; and Thomas, PA and Danelia, I and Fazaliyev, V and Kvartskhava, G and Sós, J and Dering, M}, title = {Biodiversity protection against anthropogenic climate change: Conservation prioritization of Castanea sativa in the South Caucasus based on genetic and ecological metrics.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {e10068}, pmid = {37214605}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The climate drives species distribution and genetic diversity; the latter defines the adaptability of populations and species. The ongoing climate crisis induces tree decline in many regions, compromising the mitigation potential of forests. Scientific-based strategies for prioritizing forest tree populations are critical to managing the impact of climate change. Identifying future climate refugia, which are locations naturally buffering the negative impact of climate change, may facilitate local conservation. In this work, we conducted the populations' prioritization for Castanea sativa (sweet chestnut), a Neogene relict growing in the Caucasus global biodiversity hotspot. We generated genetic and ecological metrics for 21 sites in Georgia and Azerbaijan, which cover the natural range of sweet chestnut across the region. We demonstrated that climate primarily drives the pattern of genetic diversity in C. sativa, proved with a significant isolation-by-environment model. In future, climate change may significantly reorganize the species' genetic diversity, inducing even some genetic loss, especially in the very distinct eastern fringe of the species range in Azerbaijan. Based on our combined approach, we mapped populations suitable for ex situ and in situ conservation, accounting for genetic variability and the location of future climate refugia.}, }
@article {pmid37213601, year = {2023}, author = {Robinson, Y and Khorram-Manesh, A and Arvidsson, N and Sinai, C and Taube, F}, title = {Does climate change transform military medicine and defense medical support?.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1099031}, pmid = {37213601}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Military Medicine ; *Disasters ; *Military Personnel ; *Natural Disasters ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has effects on multiple aspects of human life, such as access to food and water, expansion of endemic diseases as well as an increase of natural disasters and related diseases. The objective of this review is to summarize the current knowledge on climate change effects on military occupational health, military healthcare in a deployed setting, and defense medical logistics.<br><br>METHODS: Online databases and registers were searched on August 22[nd], 2022 and 348 papers retrieved, published between 2000 and 2022, from which we selected 8 publications that described climate effects on military health. Papers were clustered according to a modified theoretical framework for climate change effects on health, and relevant items from each paper were summarized.<br><br>RESULTS: During the last decades a growing body of climate change related publications was identified, which report that climate change has a significant impact on human physiology, mental health, water- and vector borne infectious diseases, as well as air pollution. However, regarding the specific climate effects on military health the level of evidence is low. The effects on defense medical logistics include vulnerabilities in the cold supply chain, in medical devices functioning, in need for air conditioning, and in fresh water supply.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change may transform both the theoretical framework and practical implementations in military medicine and military healthcare systems. There are significant knowledge gaps on climate change effects on the health of military personnel in operations of both combat and non-combat nature, alerting the need for prevention and mitigation of climate-related health issues. Further research within the fields of disaster and military medicine is needed to explore this novel field. As climate effects on humans and the medical supply chain may degrade military capability, significant investments in military medical research and development are needed.}, }
@article {pmid37211809, year = {2024}, author = {Singh, DK and Garg, A}, title = {Thermal hydrolysis of sewage sludge: Improvement in biogas generation and prediction of global warming potential.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {42}, number = {1}, pages = {51-58}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X231171044}, pmid = {37211809}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {*Sewage ; *Biofuels ; Anaerobiosis ; Hydrolysis ; Global Warming ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/methods ; Methane ; }, abstract = {Anaerobic digestion (AD) is a prominent treatment method for the sludge produced from sewage treatment plants. Poor solid reduction and longer retention time are the main drawbacks of AD. Thermal hydrolysis (TH) is a potential pretreatment method for solubilization of sewage sludge (SS) solids thereby improving biogas production during AD post-treatment. In this study, the SS sample (total solids = 1.75 wt% and total chemical oxygen demand (COD) = 15,450 mg L[-1]) was subjected to TH pretreatment (temperature = 140-180°C and reaction time = 60 minutes) in a 0.7-L capacity stainless-steel high-pressure reactor. At a reaction temperature of 180°C, the maximum solid solubilization (total dissolved solids = 4652 mg L[-1]) and improved dewaterability (time to filter = 4.7 s.L g[-1]) were observed. The biochemical methane potential test results showed almost doubling of methane generation from 145 to 284 mL gCOD[-1] after TH pretreatment at 180°C. The life cycle assessment approach was used to compare various SS treatment and disposal scenarios, two of which included hydrothermal pretreatment. The scenarios involving hydrothermal pretreatments showed the least global warming potential.}, }
@article {pmid37211569, year = {2023}, author = {Cevik Degerli, B and Cetin, M}, title = {Evaluation of UTFVI index effect on climate change in terms of urbanization.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {30}, pages = {75273-75280}, pmid = {37211569}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Urbanization ; Cities ; *Hot Temperature ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Urban heat island density and occurrence are closely related to land use/land cover and land surface temperature variation. The effect of UHI can be described quantitatively with the urban thermal area variance index. This study aims to evaluate the UHI effect of the city of Samsun with the UTFVI index. LST data from 2000 ETM + and 2020 OLI/TIRS Landsat images were used to analyze UHI. The results showed that the UHI effect increased in Samsun's coastline band in 20 years. As a result of the field analysis made from the UTFVI maps created, in 20 years, 84% decrease in the none slice, 104% increase in the weak slice, 10% decrease in the middle slice, 15% decrease in the strong slice, 8% increase in the stronger slice, and 179% increase in the strongest slice are observed. The slice with the most intense increase is in the strongest slice and reveals the UHI effect.}, }
@article {pmid37210435, year = {2023}, author = {Yousefi, M and Yousefkhani, SH and Grünig, M and Kafash, A and Rajabizadeh, M and Pouyani, ER}, title = {Identifying high snakebite risk area under climate change for community education and antivenom distribution.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {8191}, pmid = {37210435}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Snake Bites/drug therapy ; Antivenins/therapeutic use ; Climate Change ; Snakes ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Snakebite is one of the largest risks from wildlife, however little is known about venomous snake distribution, spatial variation in snakebite risk, potential changes in snakebite risk pattern due to climate change, and vulnerable human population. As a consequence, management and prevention of snakebite is hampered by this lack of information. Here we used habitat suitability modeling for 10 medically important venomous snakes to identify high snakebite risk area under climate change in Iran. We identified areas with high snakebite risk in Iran and showed that snakebite risk will increase in some parts of the country. Our results also revealed that mountainous areas (Zagros, Alborz, Kopet-Dagh mountains) will experience highest changes in species composition. We underline that in order to improve snakebite management, areas which were identified with high snakebite risk in Iran need to be prioritized for the distribution of antivenom medication and awareness rising programs among vulnerable human population.}, }
@article {pmid37209749, year = {2023}, author = {Zhou, J and Wu, C and Yeh, PJ and Ju, J and Zhong, L and Wang, S and Zhang, J}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change exacerbates the risk of successive flood-heat extremes: Multi-model global projections based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {889}, number = {}, pages = {164274}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164274}, pmid = {37209749}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Models, Theoretical ; Floods ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {The successive flood-heat extreme (SFHE) event, which threatens the securities of human health, economy, and building environment, has attracted extensive research attention recently. However, the potential changes in SFHE characteristics and the global population exposure to SFHE under anthropogenic warming remain unclear. Here, we present a global-scale evaluation of the projected changes and uncertainties in SFHE characteristics (frequency, intensity, duration, land exposure) and population exposure under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 6.0 scenarios, based on the multi-model ensembles (five global water models forced by four global climate models) within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project 2b framework. The results reveal that, relative to the 1970-1999 baseline period, the SFHE frequency is projected to increase nearly globally by the end of this century, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (>20 events/30-year) and the tropical regions (e.g., northern South America, central Africa, and southeastern Asia, >15 events/30-year). The projected higher SFHE frequency is generally accompanied by a larger model uncertainty. By the end of this century, the SFHE land exposure is expected to increase by 12 % (20 %) under RCP2.6 (RCP6.0), and the intervals between flood and heatwave in SFHE tend to decrease by up to 3 days under both RCPs, implying the more intermittent SFHE occurrence under future warming. The SFHE events will lead to the higher population exposure in the Indian Peninsula and central Africa (<10 million person-days) and eastern Asia (<5 million person-days) due to the higher population density and the longer SFHE duration. Partial correlation analysis indicates that the contribution of flood to the SFHE frequency is greater than that of heatwave for most global regions, but the SFHE frequency is dominated by the heatwave in northern North America and northern Asia.}, }
@article {pmid37209731, year = {2023}, author = {Song, H and Zhang, X and Wang, X and Wang, Y and Li, S and Xu, Y}, title = {Not the expected poleward migration: Impact of climate change scenarios on the distribution of two endemic evergreen broad-leaved Quercus species in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {889}, number = {}, pages = {164273}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164273}, pmid = {37209731}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Quercus ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Temperature ; China ; }, abstract = {One of the key strategies for species to respond to climate change is range shift. It is commonly believed that species will migrate towards the poles and higher elevations due to climate change. However, some species may also shift in opposite directions (i.e., equatorward) to adapt to changes in other climatic variables beyond climatic isotherms. In this study, we focused on two evergreen broad-leaved Quercus species endemic to China and used ensemble species distribution models to project their potential distribution shifts and extinction risk under two shared socioeconomic pathways of six general circulation models for the years 2050 and 2070. We also investigated the relative importance of each climatic variable in explaining range shifts of these two species. Our findings indicate a sharp reduction in the habitat suitability for both species. Q. baronii and Q. dolicholepis are projected to experience severe range contractions, losing over 30 % and 100 % of their suitable habitats under SSP585 in the 2070s, respectively. Under the assumption of universal migration in future climate scenarios, Q. baronii is expected to move towards the northwest (~105 km), southwest (~73 km), and high elevation (180-270 m). The range shifts of both species are driven by temperature and precipitation variables, not only annual mean temperature. Specifically, precipitation seasonality and temperature annual range were the most crucial environmental variables, causing the contraction and expansion of Q. baronii and contraction of Q. dolicholepis, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of considering additional climatic variables beyond the annual mean temperature to explain species range shifts in multiple directions.}, }
@article {pmid37209442, year = {2023}, author = {Carneiro, IM and Paiva, PC and Bertocci, I and Lorini, ML and de Széchy, MTM}, title = {Distribution of a canopy-forming alga along the Western Atlantic Ocean under global warming: The importance of depth range.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {188}, number = {}, pages = {106013}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106013}, pmid = {37209442}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Global Warming ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Seaweed ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Sargassum ; }, abstract = {Sargassum species are among the most important canopy-forming algae in the Western Atlantic Ocean (WAO), providing habitat for many species and contributing to carbon uptake. The future distribution of Sargassum and other canopy-forming algae has been modelled worldwide, indicating that their occurrence in many regions is threatened by increased seawater temperature. Surprisingly, despite the recognized variation in vertical distribution of macroalgae, these projections generally do not evaluate their results at different depth ranges. This study aimed to project the potential current and future distributions of the common and abundant benthic Sargassum natans in the WAO (from southern Argentina to eastern Canada), under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios, through an ensemble SDM approach. Possible changes between present and future distributions were assessed within two depth ranges, namely areas up to 20 m and areas up to 100 m depth. Our models forecast different distributional trends for benthic S. natans depending on the depth range. Up to 100 m, suitable areas for the species will increase by 21% under RCP 4.5, and by 15% under RCP 8.5, when compared to the potential current distribution. On the contrary, up to 20 m, suitable areas for the species will decrease by 4% under RCP 4.5 and by 14% under RCP 8.5, when compared to the potential current distribution. Under the worst scenario, losses up to 20 m depth will affect approximately 45,000 km[2] of coastal areas across several countries and regions of WAO, with likely negative consequences for the structure and dynamics of coastal ecosystems. These findings highlight the importance of considering different depth ranges when building and interpreting predictive models of the distribution of habitat-forming subtidal macroalgae under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37209142, year = {2023}, author = {Dorji, T and Morrison-Saunders, A and Blake, D}, title = {Understanding How Community Wellbeing is Affected by Climate Change: Evidence From a Systematic Literature Review.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {72}, number = {3}, pages = {568-586}, pmid = {37209142}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Policy Making ; Psychological Well-Being ; Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {Social science studies view community wellbeing to be a cumulative construct of multiple dimensions which include social, economic, environmental, physical, political, health, education indicators and more. The study of community wellbeing is compounded by climate change as it increases the frequency of disasters affecting all dimensions of community wellbeing. It becomes crucial for communities to build community resilience and address the impact on community wellbeing in the context of Disaster Risk Reduction and sustainable development. This systematic literature aimed to understand how community wellbeing is affected by climate change. It analysed 23 papers from Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, and Google Scholar, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method, to address three research questions: (i) how do climate change scholars understand community wellbeing, (ii) how community wellbeing is affected by specific climate change factors/conditions and the nature of impact, and (iii) how the impact on community wellbeing as a result of climate change is being addressed. The study found that climate change scholars hold mixed and multiple views or understanding of community wellbeing and climate change led to mental stress decreasing community wellbeing. The solutions to improve community wellbeing in the context of climate change suggests that adaptation should be the main policy instrument supplemented by mitigation strategies and recommends building a vibrant research culture in wellbeing and climate studies, among others. This review provides insights into the complex relationship between community wellbeing and climate change and identifies areas for future research and policy development.}, }
@article {pmid37208519, year = {2023}, author = {Jones, N}, title = {When will global warming actually hit the landmark 1.5 ºC limit?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {618}, number = {7963}, pages = {20}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-01702-w}, pmid = {37208519}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Global Warming/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Models ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid37206005, year = {2023}, author = {Li, Z and Qu, H and Li, L and Zheng, J and Wei, D and Wang, F}, title = {Effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a causality analysis using empirical dynamic modeling.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e16001}, pmid = {37206005}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Given the vital role of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) as water tower in Asia and regulator for regional and even global climate, the relationship between climate change and vegetation dynamics on it has received considerable focused attention. Climate change may influence the vegetation growth on the plateau, but clear empirical evidence of such causal linkages is sparse. Herein, using datasets CRU-TS v4.04 and AVHHR NDVI from 1981 to 2019, we quantify causal effects of climate factors on vegetation dynamics with an empirical dynamical model (EDM) -- a nonlinear dynamical systems analysis approach based on state-space reconstruction rather than correlation. Results showed the following: (1) climate change promotes the growth of vegetation on the QTP, and specifically, this favorable influence of temperature is stronger than precipitation's; (2) the direction and strength of climate effects on vegetation varied over time, and the effects are seasonally different; (3) a significant increase in temperature and a slight increase in precipitation are beneficial to vegetation growth, specifically, NDVI will increase within 2% in the next 40 years with the climate trend of warming and humidity. Besides the above results, another interesting finding is that the two seasons in which precipitation strongly influence vegetation in the Three-River Source region (part of the QTP) are spring and winter. This study provides insights into the mechanisms by which climate change affects vegetation growth on the QTP, aiding in the modeling of vegetation dynamics in future scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid37204776, year = {2023}, author = {Kamran, HW and Rafiq, M and Abudaqa, A and Amin, A}, title = {Interconnecting sustainable development goals 7 and 13: the role of renewable energy innovations towards combating the climate change.}, journal = {Environmental technology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-17}, doi = {10.1080/09593330.2023.2216903}, pmid = {37204776}, issn = {1479-487X}, abstract = {ABSTRACTThis research examines the trends in environmental footprints through energy innovations, digital trade, economic freedom, and environmental regulation from the context of G7 economies. Quarterly observations from 1998-2020 have been utilized for the advanced-panel model entitled Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR). The initial findings confirm slope heterogeneity, interdependence between the cross-sectional units, stationarity properties, and panel cointegration. The results through FM-OLS, D-OLS, and FE-OLS justify that energy innovations, digital trade, and environmental regulations control ecological damages. In contrast, economic freedom and growth are causing more damage to nature, like ecological footprints (EFP). Similarly, the results through MMQR confirm that the impact of energy innovations, digital trade, and environmental regulations is accepted as a panacea to control environmental degradation in G7. However, the magnitude of the coefficient varies across different quantiles. More specifically, the findings show that the impact of energy innovations is highly significant at 0.50th quantile. In contrast, through digital trade, the impact on EFP is only significant under medium and higher order quantiles (i.e. 0.50th, 0.75th-1.0th). Contrarily, economic freedom is causing more EFP across all the quantiles, where the findings are highly significant at 0.75th quantile. Besides, a few other policy implications are also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid37204538, year = {2023}, author = {Maitra, S and Praharaj, S and Brestic, M and Sahoo, RK and Sagar, L and Shankar, T and Palai, JB and Sahoo, U and Sairam, M and Pramanick, B and Nath, S and Venugopalan, VK and Skalický, M and Hossain, A}, title = {Rhizobium as Biotechnological Tools for Green Solutions: An Environment-Friendly Approach for Sustainable Crop Production in the Modern Era of Climate Change.}, journal = {Current microbiology}, volume = {80}, number = {7}, pages = {219}, pmid = {37204538}, issn = {1432-0991}, mesh = {*Rhizobium/genetics ; Climate Change ; *Fabaceae/microbiology ; Agriculture ; Soil ; Crop Production ; Nitrogen Fixation ; Vegetables ; Nitrogen/analysis ; }, abstract = {Modern and industrialized agriculture enhanced farm output during the last few decades, but it became possible at the cost of agricultural sustainability. Industrialized agriculture focussed only on the increase in crop productivity and the technologies involved were supply-driven, where enough synthetic chemicals were applied and natural resources were overexploited with the erosion of genetic diversity and biodiversity. Nitrogen is an essential nutrient required for plant growth and development. Even though nitrogen is available in large quantities in the atmosphere, it cannot be utilized by plants directly with the only exception of legumes which have the unique ability to fix atmospheric nitrogen and the process is known as biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). Rhizobium, a group of gram-negative soil bacteria, helps in the formation of root nodules in legumes and takes part in the BNF. The BNF has great significance in agriculture as it acts as a fertility restorer in soil. Continuous cereal-cereal cropping system, which is predominant in a major part of the world, often results in a decline in soil fertility, while legumes add nitrogen and improve the availability of other nutrients too. In the present context of the declining trend of the yield of some important crops and cropping systems, it is the need of the hour for enriching soil health to achieve agricultural sustainability, where Rhizobium can play a magnificent role. Though the role of Rhizobium in biological nitrogen fixation is well documented, their behaviour and performance in different agricultural environments need to be studied further for a better understanding. In the article, an attempt has been made to give an insight into the behaviour, performance and mode of action of different Rhizobium species and strains under versatile conditions.}, }
@article {pmid37202503, year = {2023}, author = {Pigot, AL and Merow, C and Wilson, A and Trisos, CH}, title = {Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {1060-1071}, pmid = {37202503}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Temperature ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already exposing species to dangerous temperatures driving widespread population and geographical contractions. However, little is known about how these risks of thermal exposure will expand across species' existing geographical ranges over time as climate change continues. Here, using geographical data for approximately 36,000 marine and terrestrial species and climate projections to 2100, we show that the area of each species' geographical range at risk of thermal exposure will expand abruptly. On average, more than 50% of the increase in exposure projected for a species will occur in a single decade. This abruptness is partly due to the rapid pace of future projected warming but also because the greater area available at the warm end of thermal gradients constrains species to disproportionately occupy sites close to their upper thermal limit. These geographical constraints on the structure of species ranges operate both on land and in the ocean and mean that, even in the absence of amplifying ecological feedbacks, thermally sensitive species may be inherently vulnerable to sudden warming-driven collapse. With higher levels of warming, the number of species passing these thermal thresholds, and at risk of abrupt and widespread thermal exposure, increases, doubling from less than 15% to more than 30% between 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C of global warming. These results indicate that climate threats to thousands of species are expected to expand abruptly in the coming decades, thereby highlighting the urgency of mitigation and adaptation actions.}, }
@article {pmid37202284, year = {2023}, author = {Grémillet, D and Descamps, S}, title = {Ecological impacts of climate change on Arctic marine megafauna.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {38}, number = {8}, pages = {773-783}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2023.04.002}, pmid = {37202284}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Arctic Regions ; *Animals, Wild ; Global Warming ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Global warming affects the Arctic more than any other region. Mass media constantly relay apocalyptic visions of climate change threatening Arctic wildlife, especially emblematic megafauna such as polar bears, whales, and seabirds. Yet, we are just beginning to understand such ecological impacts on marine megafauna at the scale of the Arctic. This knowledge is geographically and taxonomically biased, with striking deficiencies in the Russian Arctic and strong focus on exploited species such as cod. Beyond a synthesis of scientific advances in the past 5 years, we provide ten key questions to be addressed by future work and outline the requested methodology. This framework builds upon long-term Arctic monitoring inclusive of local communities whilst capitalising on high-tech and big data approaches.}, }
@article {pmid37201823, year = {2023}, author = {Pereira, H and Picado, A and Sousa, MC and Brito, AC and Biguino, B and Carvalho, D and Dias, JM}, title = {Effects of climate change on aquaculture site selection at a temperate estuarine system.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {888}, number = {}, pages = {164250}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164250}, pmid = {37201823}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Climate Change ; *Bivalvia ; Aquaculture ; Estuaries ; *Ostreidae ; }, abstract = {Aquaculture is one of the food industries that most evolved in recent years in response to increased human demand for seafood products, which has led to a progressive stock threat in nature. With a high seafood consumption per capita, Portugal has been exploring its coastal systems to improve the cultivation of fish and bivalve species with high commercial value. In this context, this study aims to propose the use of a numerical model as a tool to assess the impact of climate change on aquaculture site selection in a temperate estuarine system (Sado estuary). Therefore, the Delft3D model was calibrated and validated, showing good accuracy in predicting the local hydrodynamics, transport, and water quality. Furthermore, two simulations for the historical and future conditions were performed to establish a Suitability Index capable of identifying the most appropriate sites to exploit two bivalve species (one clam and one oyster), considering both winter and summer seasons. Results suggest that the estuary's northernmost region presents the best conditions for bivalves' exploitation, with more suitable conditions during summer than winter due to the higher water temperature and chlorophyll-a concentrations. Regarding future projections, the model results suggest that environmental conditions will likely benefit the production of both species due to the increase in chlorophyll-a concentration along the estuary.}, }
@article {pmid37200570, year = {2023}, author = {Álvarez-García, O and Sureda-Negre, J and Comas-Forgas, R and Oliver-Trobat, MF}, title = {The Spanish population's interest in climate change based on Internet searches.}, journal = {Humanities &amp; social sciences communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {231}, pmid = {37200570}, issn = {2662-9992}, abstract = {The climate crisis is one of the most important global problems facing humanity. Analyzing the search for information on climate change (CC) on the internet can be a predictor of public interest in this problem and, therefore, of the degree of concern exhibited by citizens. This study analyzes the interest in CC among the Spanish population and identifies some variables that may influence this interest. The methodology involves the collection and analysis of data obtained from SEMrush and Google Analytics. We analyzed the search trends of four key descriptors related to CC ("climate change," "global warming," "climate emergency" and "greenhouse effect") during two periods of time, and the relationship between these searches and three relational variables (volume of news in the media, occurrence of extreme weather events and CC-related events). The results indicate that the Spanish population's interest in CC via the Internet has increased in recent years and is directly influenced by variables such as media coverage of CC, events related to CC, and social pressure exerted by social movements for CC. Some proposals are discussed and presented in relation to the concern for this problem.}, }
@article {pmid37199844, year = {2023}, author = {Tefera, GW and Ray, RL}, title = {Hydrology and hydrological extremes under climate change scenarios in the Bosque watershed, North-Central Texas, USA.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37199844}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {This study evaluates hydrology and hydrological extremes under future climate change scenarios. The climate change scenarios were developed from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs), Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and statistical downscaling techniques. To ensure hydrological model robustness, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated using the Differential Split Sample Test (DSST) approach. The model was also calibrated and validated at the multi-gauges of the watershed. Future climate change scenarios revealed a reduction in precipitation (in the order of -9.1% to 4.9%) and a consistent increase in maximum temperature (0.34°C to 4.10°C) and minimum temperature (-0.15 °C to 3.7°C) in different climate model simulations. The climate change scenarios triggered a reduction of surface runoff and streamflow and a moderate increase in evapotranspiration. Future climate change scenarios projected a decrease in high flow (Q5) and low flow (Q95). A higher reduction of Q5 and annual minimum flow is also simulated in future climate scenarios, whereas an increase in annual maximum flow is simulated in climate change scenarios developed from the RCP8.5 emission scenario. The study suggests optimal water management structures which can reduce the effect of change in high and low flows.}, }
@article {pmid37199784, year = {2023}, author = {Moran, DS and DeGroot, DW and Potter, AW and Charkoudian, N}, title = {Beating the heat: military training and operations in the era of global warming.}, journal = {Journal of applied physiology (Bethesda, Md. : 1985)}, volume = {135}, number = {1}, pages = {60-67}, pmid = {37199784}, issn = {1522-1601}, mesh = {Humans ; Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; *Military Personnel ; Climate Change ; Exercise ; *Heat Stress Disorders/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Global climate change has resulted in an increase in the number and intensity of environmental heat waves, both in areas traditionally associated with hot temperatures and in areas where heat waves did not previously occur. For military communities around the world, these changes pose progressively increasing risks of heat-related illnesses and interference with training sessions. This is a significant and persistent "noncombat threat" to both training and operational activities of military personnel. In addition to these important health and safety concerns, there are broader implications in terms of the ability of worldwide security forces to effectively do their job (particularly in areas that historically already have high ambient temperatures). In the present review, we attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on various aspects of military training and performance. We also summarize ongoing research efforts designed to minimize and/or prevent heat injuries and illness. In terms of future approaches, we propose the need to "think outside the box" for a more effective training/schedule paradigm. One approach may be to investigate potential impacts of a reversal of sleep-wake cycles during basic training during the hot months of the year, to minimize the usual increase in heat-related injuries, and to enhance the capacity for physical training and combat performance. Regardless of which approaches are taken, a central feature of successful present and future interventions will be that they are rigorously tested using integrative physiological approaches.}, }
@article {pmid37199318, year = {2023}, author = {Churchill, RT and Avery, MD}, title = {The Heat is On: Imperative for Midwifery Engagement in Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of midwifery &amp; women's health}, volume = {68}, number = {3}, pages = {313-314}, doi = {10.1111/jmwh.13517}, pmid = {37199318}, issn = {1542-2011}, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Humans ; Female ; *Midwifery ; Hot Temperature ; Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid37198314, year = {2023}, author = {Adam, D}, title = {Can giant surveys of scientists fight misinformation on COVID, climate change and more?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {617}, number = {7961}, pages = {452-454}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-01614-9}, pmid = {37198314}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; *Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Research Personnel ; *Infodemic ; *Infodemiology/methods/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid37196971, year = {2023}, author = {Van Espen, M and Williams, JH and Alves, F and Hung, Y and de Graaf, DC and Verbeke, W}, title = {Beekeeping in Europe facing climate change: A mixed methods study on perceived impacts and the need to adapt according to stakeholders and beekeepers.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {888}, number = {}, pages = {164255}, pmid = {37196971}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Bees ; Animals ; *Beekeeping/methods ; Climate Change ; *Honey ; Europe ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {The beekeeping sector is suffering from the detrimental effects of climate change, both directly and indirectly. Despite numerous studies conducted on this subject, large-scale research incorporating stakeholders' and beekeepers' perspectives has remained elusive. This study aims to bridge this gap by assessing the extent to which stakeholders involved in the European beekeeping sector and European beekeepers perceive and experience the impacts of climate change on their operations, and whether they had to adapt their practices accordingly. To this end, a mixed-methods study including in-depth stakeholder interviews (n = 41) and a pan-European beekeeper survey (n = 844) was completed within the frame of the EU-funded H2020-project B-GOOD. The development of the beekeeper survey was informed by insights from literature and the stakeholder interviews. The results highlighted significant regional disparities in the perceived impacts of climate change, with beekeepers in Southern European regions expressing more negative outlooks, while Northern European beekeepers reported more favourable experiences. Furthermore, survey analysis revealed beekeepers who were classified as 'heavily impacted' by climate change. These beekeepers reported lower average honey yields, higher colony winter loss rates and a stronger perceived contribution of honey bees to pollination and biodiversity, underscoring climate change's detrimental impacts on the beekeeping sector. Multinomial logistic regression revealed determinants of the likelihood of beekeepers being classified as 'heavily impacted' by climate change. This analysis indicates that Southern European beekeepers experienced a 10-fold likelihood of being classified as heavily impacted by climate change compared to Northern European beekeepers. Other significant factors distinguishing 'winners' and 'losers' were self-reported level of professionalism as a beekeeper (ranging from pure hobbyist to fully professional, Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.31), number of years active in beekeeping (OR = 1.02), availability of floral resources throughout the bee season (OR = 0.78), beehives located in a forested environment (OR = 1.34), and the presence of local policy measures addressing climate change-related challenges (OR = 0.76).}, }
@article {pmid37196958, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, W and Zhang, D and Tian, J and Yu, F and Xie, Y and Cheng, S and Li, Q and Li, W and Peng, C and Yan, Y}, title = {Climate change mitigation potential of kitchen waste utilization in China for combined heat and power production.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {888}, number = {}, pages = {164165}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164165}, pmid = {37196958}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Given the concerns about climate change, energy sustainability, and public health, the reuse of kitchen wastes (KW) is attracting increasing interest. In China, the municipal solid waste sorting scheme has increased the available KW. To assess the available KW and the climate change mitigation potential of KW utilization for bioenergy in China, three scenarios (base, conservative, and ambitious) were defined. A new framework was implemented to assess the climate change impacts of bioenergy. The annual available KW ranged from 11.450 million dry tons (in metric) under the conservative scenario to 22.898 million dry tons in the ambitious scenario, and had the potential to produce 12.37 × 10[6]-24.74 × 10[6] MWh heat and 9.62 × 10[6]-19.24 × 10[6] MWh power. The total potential climate change impacts of KW for combined heat and power were 3.339-6.717 million tons CO2 eq in China. The highest eight provinces and municipalities contributed over half of the national total. Among the three components of the new framework, fossil fuel-derived greenhouse gas emissions and biogenic CO2 emissions were positive. The difference in carbon sequestration was negative and ensured a lower integrated life-cycle climate change impacts than that of natural gas-derived combined heat and power. The mitigation effects of using KW as a substitute for natural gas and synthetic fertilizers were 2.477-8.080 million tons CO2 eq. These outcomes can inform relevant policymaking and benchmark climate change mitigation in China. The conceptual framework of this study can also be adapted for applications in other countries or regions worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid37194928, year = {2023}, author = {Tranter, B and Lester, L and Foxwell-Norton, K and Palmer, MA}, title = {In science we trust? Public trust in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections and accepting anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {691-708}, pmid = {37194928}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Australia ; *Global Warming ; Trust ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {One barrier to action on climate change is public trust in climate science, and projections made by climate scientists. However, climate science projections are rarely measured in public surveys. We designed survey questions based on two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections regarding global warming and coral reef decline. We gauge Australians' trust in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections, and explore how trust in climate science is associated with accepting anthropogenic climate change. A slim majority of Australian adults trust Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections, with trust correlated positively with accepting anthropogenic climate change. While partisan divisions are extant in accepting anthropogenic climate change, partisan influences are attenuated substantially after controlling for trust in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections, as trust in climate science mediates the influence of partisanship on the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change. A minority of those who accept anthropogenic climate change have low trust in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections, viewing scientists' computer models as unreliable, or believing climate scientists benefit from overstating the impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37194092, year = {2023}, author = {Van de Vuurst, P and Escobar, LE}, title = {Climate change and infectious disease: a review of evidence and research trends.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {51}, pmid = {37194092}, issn = {2049-9957}, support = {2116748//Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences/ ; ICTAS-JFP-2022-2023//Institute for Critical Technologies and Applied Science, Virginia Tech/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Climate Change ; Mosquito Vectors ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; *Culicidae ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change presents an imminent threat to almost all biological systems across the globe. In recent years there have been a series of studies showing how changes in climate can impact infectious disease transmission. Many of these publications focus on simulations based on in silico data, shadowing empirical research based on field and laboratory data. A synthesis work of empirical climate change and infectious disease research is still lacking.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a systemic review of research from 2015 to 2020 period on climate change and infectious diseases to identify major trends and current gaps of research. Literature was sourced from Web of Science and PubMed literary repositories using a key word search, and was reviewed using a delineated inclusion criteria by a team of reviewers.<br><br>RESULTS: Our review revealed that both taxonomic and geographic biases are present in climate and infectious disease research, specifically with regard to types of disease transmission and localities studied. Empirical investigations on vector-borne diseases associated with mosquitoes comprised the majority of research on the climate change and infectious disease literature. Furthermore, demographic trends in the institutions and individuals published revealed research bias towards research conducted across temperate, high-income countries. We also identified key trends in funding sources for most resent literature and a discrepancy in the gender&#xa0;identities of publishing authors which may reflect current systemic inequities in the scientific field.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Future research lines on climate change and infectious diseases should considered diseases of direct transmission (non-vector-borne) and more research effort in the tropics. Inclusion of local research in low- and middle-income countries was generally neglected. Research on climate change and infectious disease has failed to be socially inclusive, geographically balanced, and broad in terms of the disease systems studied, limiting our capacities to better understand the actual effects of climate change on health.}, }
@article {pmid37193780, year = {2023}, author = {Karuppaiah, V and Maruthadurai, R and Das, B and Soumia, PS and Gadge, AS and Thangasamy, A and Ramesh, SV and Shirsat, DV and Mahajan, V and Krishna, H and Singh, M}, title = {Predicting the potential geographical distribution of onion thrips, Thrips tabaci in India based on climate change projections using MaxEnt.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {7934}, pmid = {37193780}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Thysanoptera ; Onions ; Climate Change ; Temperature ; India ; }, abstract = {Onion thrips, Thrips tabaci Lindeman, an economically important onion pest in India, poses a severe threat to the domestic and export supply of onions. Therefore, it is important to study the distribution of this pest in order to assess the possible crop loss, which it may inflict if not managed in time. In this study, MaxEnt was used to analyze the potential distribution of T. tabaci in India and predict the changes in the suitable areas for onion thrips under two scenarios, SSP126 and SSP585. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.993 and 0.989 for training and testing demonstrated excellent model accuracy. The true skill statistic value of 0.944 and 0.921, and the continuous Boyce index of 0.964 and 0.889 for training and testing, also showed higher model accuracy. Annual Mean Temperature (bio1), Annual Precipitation (bio12) and Precipitation Seasonality (bio15) are the main variables that determined the potential distribution of T. tabaci, with the suitable range of 22-28 °C; 300-1000 mm and 70-160, respectively. T. tabaci is distributed mainly in India's central and southern states, with 1.17 × 10[6] km[2], covering 36.4% of land area under the current scenario. Multimodal ensembles show that under a low emission scenario (SSP126), low, moderate and optimum suitable areas of T. tabaci is likely to increase, while highly suitable areas would decrease by 17.4% in 2050 20.9% in 2070. Whereas, under the high emission scenario (SSP585), the high suitability is likely to contract by 24.2% and 51.7% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. According to the prediction of the BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1 and MIROC6 model, the highly suitable area for T. tabaci would likely contract under both SSP126 and SSP585. This study detailed the potential future habitable area for T. tabaci in India, which could help monitor and devise efficient management strategies for this destructive pest.}, }
@article {pmid37192889, year = {2023}, author = {Frossard, V and Sabatier, P and Bruel, R and Vagnon, C and Tissot, N and Curt-Grand-Gaudin, N and Perga, ME}, title = {Intense touristic activities exceed climate change to shape aquatic communities in a mountain lake.}, journal = {Aquatic sciences}, volume = {85}, number = {3}, pages = {71}, pmid = {37192889}, issn = {1015-1621}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Mountain lakes are especially vulnerable to climate change, but are also increasingly exposed to local anthropogenic development through winter and summer tourism. In this study, we aimed to tease apart the influence of tourism from that of climate in a mountain lake located within one of the largest French ski resorts, by combining paleolimnological and present ecological data. The reconstructed long-term ecological dynamics highlighted an increase in lake biological production from the end of the Little Ice Age up to the 1950s, suggesting a historical dominance of climate control. Afterward, a major drop in pelagic production occurred at the same time as the watershed erosion increased and peaked in the 1990s, concomitant with massive digging for the ski resort expansion. The benthic invertebrates collapsed in the 1980s, concomitantly with the onset of massive salmonid stocking and recent warming. Stable isotope analyses identified benthic invertebrates as the major salmonid diet resource and suggested a possible direct impact of salmonid stocking on benthic invertebrates. However, habitat use may differ among salmonid species as suggested by the way fish DNA was preserved in surficial sediment. The high abundances of macrozooplankton further confirmed the limited reliance of salmonids on pelagic resources. The variable thermal tolerance of benthic invertebrates suggested that the recent warming may mostly affect littoral habitats. Our results indicate that winter and summer tourism may differently affect the biodiversity of mountain lakes and could collectively interfere with the ecological impacts of recent warming, making local management of primary importance to preserve their ecological integrity.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00027-023-00968-6.}, }
@article {pmid37189296, year = {2023}, author = {Aruta, JJBR}, title = {Preserving elderly mental health amid climate change.}, journal = {International journal of geriatric psychiatry}, volume = {38}, number = {5}, pages = {e5938}, doi = {10.1002/gps.5938}, pmid = {37189296}, issn = {1099-1166}, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; *Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid37188767, year = {2023}, author = {Kaklauskas, A and Abraham, A and Kaklauskiene, L and Ubarte, I and Amaratunga, D and Lill, I and Milevicius, V and Kaklauskaite, U}, title = {Synergy of climate change with country success and city quality of life.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {7872}, pmid = {37188767}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2020-1-LT01-KA203-078100//Erasmus+/ ; 2020-1-UK01-KA226-HE-094662//Erasmus+/ ; }, abstract = {Most people around the world have felt the effects of climate change on their quality of life. This study sought to achieve the maximum efficiency for climate change actions with the minimum negative impact on the well-being of countries and cities. The Climate Change and Country Success (C[3]S) and Climate Change and Cities' Quality of Life (C[3]QL) models and maps of the world created as part of this research showed that as economic, social, political, cultural, and environmental metrics of countries and cities improve, so do their climate change indicators. For the 14 climate change indicators, the C[3]S and C[3]QL models indicated 68.8% average dispersion dimensions in the case of countries and 52.8% in the case of cities. Our research showed that increases in the success of 169 countries saw improvements in 9 climate change indicators out of the 12 considered. Improvements in country success indicators were accompanied by a 71% improvement in climate change metrics.}, }
@article {pmid37188321, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, J and Shi, X}, title = {Soil biodiversity in natural forests potentially exhibits higher resistance than planted forests under global warming.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1135549}, pmid = {37188321}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid37187603, year = {2023}, author = {Khezzani, B and Baymakova, M and Khechekhouche, EA and Tsachev, I}, title = {Global warming and mosquito-borne diseases in Africa: a narrative review.}, journal = {The Pan African medical journal}, volume = {44}, number = {}, pages = {70}, pmid = {37187603}, issn = {1937-8688}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Global Warming ; Africa/epidemiology ; *Vector Borne Diseases ; *Culicidae ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Human activity has a direct influence on the climate on our planet. In recent decades, the greater part of the scientific community has united around the concept of Global Warming (GW). This process highly impacts the geographical distribution of mosquitoes and Mosquito-Borne Diseases (MBD). The examined scientific publications show that Africa, especially sub-Saharan countries were and still hot spot of MBD globally. The economic, social, and environmental conditions prevailing in most African countries have effectively contributed to the spread of MBD. The current situation is very worrying, and it will get even more complicated as GW gets worse. In this regard, health systems in developing countries will have serious difficulties in health policies and public health activities to control the spread on MBD. Therefore, the governments of African countries should do more to combat MBD. However, a part of the responsibility lies with the international community, especially countries that contribute to GW. In conclusion, the analysis of the scientific literature showed that with increasing importance of GW leads to an increase in the prevalence of MBD.}, }
@article {pmid37187559, year = {2023}, author = {Seibt, B and Zickfeld, JH and Østby, N}, title = {Global heart warming: kama muta evoked by climate change messages is associated with intentions to mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1112910}, pmid = {37187559}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Concern about climate change is often rooted in sympathy, compassion, and care for nature, living beings, and future generations. Feeling sympathy for others temporarily forms a bond between them and us: we focus on what we have in common and feel a sense of common destiny. Thus, we temporarily experience communal sharing relationships. A sudden intensification in communal sharing evokes an emotion termed kama muta, which may be felt through tearing up, a warm feeling in the chest, or goosebumps. We conducted four pre-registered studies (n = 1,049) to test the relationship between kama muta and pro-environmental attitudes, intentions, and behavior. In each study, participants first reported their attitudes about climate change. Then, they received climate change-related messages. In Study 1, they saw one of the two moving video clips about environmental concerns. In Study 2, participants listened to a more or less moving version of a story about a typhoon in the Philippines. In Study 3, they listened to a different, also moving version of this story or an unrelated talk. In Study 4, they watched either a factual or a moving video about climate change. Participants then indicated their emotional responses. Finally, they indicated their intentions for climate mitigation actions. In addition, we measured time spent reading about climate-related information (Studies 1, 2, and 4) and donating money (Study 4). Across all studies, we found that feelings of kama muta correlated positively with pro-environmental intentions (r = 0.48 [0.34, 0.62]) and behavior (r = 0.10 [0.0004, 0.20]). However, we did not obtain evidence for an experimental effect of the type of message (moving or neutral) on pro-environmental intentions (d = 0.04 [-0.09, 0.18]), though this relationship was significantly mediated by felt kama muta across Studies 2-4. The relationship was not moderated by prior climate attitudes, which had a main effect on intentions. We also found an indirect effect of condition through kama muta on donation behavior. In sum, our results contribute to the question of whether kama muta evoked by climate-change messages can be a motivating force in efforts at climate-change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid37186776, year = {2023}, author = {Sheahan, M and Gould, CA and Neumann, JE and Kinney, PL and Hoffmann, S and Fant, C and Wang, X and Kolian, M}, title = {Erratum: Examining the Relationship between Climate Change and Vibriosis in the United States: Projected Health and Economic Impacts for the 21st Century.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {131}, number = {5}, pages = {59001}, doi = {10.1289/EHP13087}, pmid = {37186776}, issn = {1552-9924}, }
@article {pmid37186546, year = {2023}, author = {Szozda, AR and Mahaffy, PG and Flynn, AB}, title = {Identifying Chemistry Students' Baseline Systems Thinking Skills When Constructing System Maps for a Topic on Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of chemical education}, volume = {100}, number = {5}, pages = {1763-1776}, pmid = {37186546}, issn = {0021-9584}, abstract = {New resources have recently been emerging for educators to implement systems thinking (ST) in chemistry education, including a proposed set of ST skills. While these efforts aim to make ST implementation easier, little is known about how to assess these skills in a chemistry context. In this study, we investigated ST skills employed by students who constructed system maps of a topic related to climate change. Eighteen undergraduate chemistry students from first- to third-year participated in this study. We designed and implemented a ST intervention to capture how students engaged with three ST tasks, performed individually and collaboratively. In our analysis, we focused on 11 ST skills that aligned with five characteristics proposed in a recent study. We found that participants demonstrated most of these ST skills when engaging with the ST tasks, with nuances. Participants' system maps: (1) lacked concepts and connections at the submicroscopic level, (2) included multiple types of connections but few circular loops and causal connections, (3) lacked causal reasoning, although participants did predict how their system maps changed over time, (4) demonstrated the breadth of connections but did not describe human connections to the underlying chemistry of climate change topics. These findings identify aspects of ST where chemistry educators need to place emphasis when teaching ST skills to chemistry students and when guiding learning activities and other assessments. Using our findings, we created an adaptable ST rubric for the chemistry community as a tool for assessing ST skills.}, }
@article {pmid37184574, year = {2023}, author = {Nogueira, LM and Crane, TE and Ortiz, AP and D'Angelo, H and Neta, G}, title = {Climate Change and Cancer.}, journal = {Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers &amp; prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology}, volume = {32}, number = {7}, pages = {869-875}, doi = {10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-22-1234}, pmid = {37184574}, issn = {1538-7755}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Forecasting ; *Neoplasms/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Climate change, the greatest threat to human health of our time, has implications for cancer control efforts throughout the cancer care continuum. The direct and indirect impacts of climate change on cancer risk, access to care, and outcomes are numerous and compounding, yet many oncology professionals might not be familiar with the strong connection between climate change and cancer. Thus, to increase awareness of this topic among cancer researchers, practitioners, and other professionals, this commentary discusses the links between climate change and cancer prevention and control, provides examples of adaptation and mitigation efforts, and describes opportunities and resources for future research.}, }
@article {pmid37182772, year = {2023}, author = {Bosela, M and Rubio-Cuadrado, &#xc1; and Marcis, P and Merganičová, K and Fleischer, P and Forrester, DI and Uhl, E and Avdagić, A and Bellan, M and Bielak, K and Bravo, F and Coll, L and Cseke, K and Del Rio, M and Dinca, L and Dobor, L and Drozdowski, S and Giammarchi, F and Gömöryová, E and Ibrahimspahić, A and Kašanin-Grubin, M and Klopčič, M and Kurylyak, V and Montes, F and Pach, M and Ruiz-Peinado, R and Skrzyszewski, J and Stajic, B and Stojanovic, D and Svoboda, M and Tonon, G and Versace, S and Mitrovic, S and Zlatanov, T and Pretzsch, H and Tognetti, R}, title = {Empirical and process-based models predict enhanced beech growth in European mountains under climate change scenarios: A multimodel approach.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {888}, number = {}, pages = {164123}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164123}, pmid = {37182772}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Fagus ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Process-based models and empirical modelling techniques are frequently used to (i) explore the sensitivity of tree growth to environmental variables, and (ii) predict the future growth of trees and forest stands under climate change scenarios. However, modelling approaches substantially influence predictions of the sensitivity of trees to environmental factors. Here, we used tree-ring width (TRW) data from 1630 beech trees from a network of 70 plots established across European mountains to build empirical predictive growth models using various modelling approaches. In addition, we used 3-PG and Biome-BGCMuSo process-based models to compare growth predictions with derived empirical models. Results revealed similar prediction errors (RMSE) across models ranging between 3.71 and 7.54 cm[2] of basal area increment (BAI). The models explained most of the variability in BAI ranging from 54 % to 87 %. Selected explanatory variables (despite being statistically highly significant) and the pattern of the growth sensitivity differed between models substantially. We identified only five factors with the same effect and the same sensitivity pattern in all empirical models: tree DBH, competition index, elevation, Gini index of DBH, and soil silt content. However, the sensitivity to most of the climate variables was low and inconsistent among the empirical models. Both empirical and process-based models suggest that beech in European mountains will, on average, likely experience better growth conditions under both 4.5 and 8.5 RCP scenarios. The process-based models indicated that beech may grow better across European mountains by 1.05 to 1.4 times in warmer conditions. The empirical models identified several drivers of tree growth that are not included in the current process-based models (e.g., different nutrients) but may have a substantial effect on final results, particularly if they are limiting factors. Hence, future development of process-based models may build upon our findings to increase their ability to correctly capture ecosystem dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid37182213, year = {2023}, author = {Anderson, A and Bruce, F and Soyer, HP and Williams, C and Saunderson, RB}, title = {The impact of climate change on skin health.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {218}, number = {9}, pages = {388-390}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.51931}, pmid = {37182213}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Skin ; *Skin Neoplasms ; *Skin Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid37181865, year = {2023}, author = {Lalani, B and Gray, S and Mitra-Ganguli, T}, title = {Systems Thinking in an era of climate change: Does cognitive neuroscience hold the key to improving environmental decision making? A perspective on Climate-Smart Agriculture.}, journal = {Frontiers in integrative neuroscience}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {1145744}, pmid = {37181865}, issn = {1662-5145}, abstract = {Systems Thinking (ST) can be defined as a mental construct that recognises patterns and connections in a particular complex system to make the "best decision" possible. In the field of sustainable agriculture and climate change, higher degrees of ST are assumed to be associated with more successful adaptation strategies under changing conditions, and "better" environmental decision making in a number of environmental and cultural settings. Future climate change scenarios highlight the negative effects on agricultural productivity worldwide, particularly in low-income countries (LICs) situated in the Global South. Alongside this, current measures of ST are limited by their reliance on recall, and are prone to possible measurement errors. Using Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), as an example case study, in this article we explore: (i) ST from a social science perspective; (ii) cognitive neuroscience tools that could be used to explore ST abilities in the context of LICs; (iii) an exploration of the possible correlates of systems thinking: observational learning, prospective thinking/memory and the theory of planned behaviour and (iv) a proposed theory of change highlighting the integration of social science frameworks and a cognitive neuroscience perspective. We find, recent advancements in the field of cognitive neuroscience such as Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) provide exciting potential to explore previously hidden forms of cognition, especially in a low-income country/field setting; improving our understanding of environmental decision-making and the ability to more accurately test more complex hypotheses where access to laboratory studies is severely limited. We highlight that ST may correlate with other key aspects involved in environmental decision-making and posit motivating farmers via specific brain networks would: (a) enhance understanding of CSA practices (e.g., via the frontoparietal network extending from the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) to the parietal cortex (PC) a control hub involved in ST and observational learning) such as tailoring training towards developing improved ST abilities among farmers and involving observational learning more explicitly and (b) motivate farmers to use such practices [e.g., via the network between the DLPFC and nucleus accumbens (NAc)] which mediates reward processing and motivation by focussing on a reward/emotion to engage farmers. Finally, our proposed interdisciplinary theory of change can be used as a starting point to encourage discussion and guide future research in this space.}, }
@article {pmid37181227, year = {2023}, author = {Li, T and Zhang, C and Ban, J and Du, P and Ma, R and Kinney, PL}, title = {Projecting universal health risks under climate change to bridge mitigation and health adaptation objectives.}, journal = {Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {100427}, pmid = {37181227}, issn = {2666-6758}, }
@article {pmid37181096, year = {2023}, author = {Penuelas, J and Nogué, S}, title = {Catastrophic climate change and the collapse of human societies.}, journal = {National science review}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {nwad082}, pmid = {37181096}, issn = {2053-714X}, }
@article {pmid37179880, year = {2023}, author = {Shoko Kori, D}, title = {The psychosocial impact of climate change among smallholder farmers: a potential threat to sustainable development.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1067879}, pmid = {37179880}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Psychosocial impacts of climate change and implications on sustainable development remain unclear. This problem was addressed focusing on smallholder farmers in resettlement areas of Chirumanzu District, Zimbabwe. An Exploratory Descriptive Qualitative research design was adopted. Purposive sampling techniques were used to select 54 farmers who served as main respondents from four representative wards. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analyzed using a grounded theory approach. Code groups and codes were established through inductive approaches considering narratives of farmers. Forty psychosocial impacts were established. They were qualitative, intangible, indirect and difficult to measure quantitatively. Farmers agonized over the threat of climate change on farming operations, felt humiliated, and embarrassed over detestable practices they resorted to due to climate change. Some farmers experienced heightened negative feelings, thoughts, and emotions. It was established that psychosocial impacts of climate change have a bearing on sustainable development of emerging rural communities.}, }
@article {pmid37179798, year = {2023}, author = {Díaz-Martínez, P and Panettieri, M and García-Palacios, P and Moreno, E and Plaza, C and Maestre, FT}, title = {Biocrusts Modulate Climate Change Effects on Soil Organic Carbon Pools: Insights From a 9-Year Experiment.}, journal = {Ecosystems (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {585-596}, pmid = {37179798}, issn = {1432-9840}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Accumulating evidence suggests that warming associated with climate change is decreasing the total amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) in drylands, although scientific research has not given enough emphasis to particulate (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) pools. Biocrusts are a major biotic feature of drylands and have large impacts on the C cycle, yet it is largely unknown whether they modulate the responses of POC and MAOC to climate change. Here, we assessed the effects of simulated climate change (control, reduced rainfall (RE), warming (WA), and RE + WA) and initial biocrust cover (low (< 20%) versus high (> 50%)) on the mineral protection of soil C and soil organic matter quality in a dryland ecosystem in central Spain for 9 years. At low initial biocrust cover levels, both WA and RE + WA increased SOC, especially POC but also MAOC, and promoted a higher contribution of carbohydrates, relative to aromatic compounds, to the POC fraction. These results suggest that the accumulation of soil C under warming treatments may be transitory in soils with low initial biocrust cover. In soils with high initial biocrust cover, climate change treatments did not affect SOC, neither POC nor MAOC fraction. Overall, our results indicate that biocrust communities modulate the negative effect of climate change on SOC, because no losses of soil C were observed with the climate manipulations under biocrusts. Future work should focus on determining the long-term persistence of the observed buffering effect by biocrust-forming lichens, as they are known to be negatively affected by warming.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10021-022-00779-0.}, }
@article {pmid37179230, year = {2023}, author = {Hou, J and Ji, K and Zhu, E and Dong, G and Tong, T and Chu, G and Liu, W and Wu, W and Zhang, S and Guedes, JD and Chen, F}, title = {Climate change fostered rise and fall of the Tibetan Empire during 600-800 AD.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {68}, number = {11}, pages = {1187-1194}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2023.04.040}, pmid = {37179230}, issn = {2095-9281}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Tibet ; *Global Warming ; Temperature ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {During the 7-9th century, the Tibetan Empire constituted a superpower between the Tang Empire and Abbasid Caliphate: one that played significant roles in geopolitics in Asia during the Early Medieval Period. The factors which led to the rise and rapid decline of this powerful Empire, the only united historical regime on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), remain unclear. Sub-annual scale precipitation and decadal-scale temperature records of the central TP are presented, indicating that the height of this Empire coincided with a two-century long interval of uncharacteristically warm and humid climate. The ameliorated climate enabled the expansion of arable land and increased agricultural production. The close relationship between the precipitation records and historical events implied that the Empire implemented flexible strategies to tackle the effects of climate changes. This has implications for agricultural production in alpine regions including the TP, in the context of current global warming.}, }
@article {pmid37177942, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, LX and Yue, X and Zhou, DC and Fan, JW and Li, YZ}, title = {[Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Restoration in Typical Grasslands of China].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {44}, number = {5}, pages = {2694-2703}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.202206156}, pmid = {37177942}, issn = {0250-3301}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Grassland ; Climate Change ; China ; Human Activities ; }, abstract = {Grasslands, as one of the key ecosystems relevant to the terrestrial ecosystem carbon and water cycles as well as the ecological security in China, are very sensitive to climate change and human activities. However, the relative contributions of climate change and human activities on the vegetation restoration in those regions are still controversial. Using ecosystem net primary production (NPP) as an ecological indicator, this study quantified the relative roles of climate change and human activities on vegetation restoration in Chinese typical grasslands (northern temperate grasslands and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau alpine grasslands) by comparing the trends of actual NPP derived from MODIS and potential NPP estimated by the Thornthwaite Memorial model during 2000-2020. The results showed that approximately 93% of the grasslands in the study area experienced a recovering tendency, with an average increase of NPP (carbon) by 2.12 g·(m[2]·a)[-1](P<0.01). Therein, nearly half of the vegetation-restored areas were jointly-dominated by climate change and human activities, whereas approximately 36% and 10% of the restored areas were controlled individually by climate change and human activities, respectively. In addition, the share of climate-change dominated areas differed greatly by grassland types, characterized by a much larger area percentage in the alpine grasslands than that in the temperate grasslands and an increasing area share with a drying background climate. This study suggested that human activities were not primarily responsible for the vegetation restoration in northern temperate grasslands and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau alpine grasslands, but they could decrease and even cancel the possible vegetation degeneration caused by worsening climate in a few regions. Long-term monitoring of vegetation dynamics and a multi-method comparison are needed in future studies.}, }
@article {pmid37174199, year = {2023}, author = {Portela Dos Santos, O and Melly, P and Joost, S and Verloo, H}, title = {Climate Change, Environmental Health, and Challenges for Nursing Discipline.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {37174199}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health/education ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Acclimatization ; *Disasters ; }, abstract = {Current data and scientific predictions about the consequences of climate change are accurate in suggesting disaster. Since 2019, climate change has become a threat to human health, and major consequences on health and health systems are already observed. Climate change is a central concern for the nursing discipline, even though nursing theorists' understanding of the environment has led to problematic gaps that impact the current context. Today, nursing discipline is facing new challenges. Nurses are strategically placed to respond to the impacts of climate change through their practice, research, and training in developing, implementing, and sustaining innovation towards climate change mitigation and adaptation. It is urgent for them to adapt their practice to this reality to become agents of change.}, }
@article {pmid37174195, year = {2023}, author = {Hunt, AP and Brearley, M and Hall, A and Pope, R}, title = {Climate Change Effects on the Predicted Heat Strain and Labour Capacity of Outdoor Workers in Australia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {37174195}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Female ; Humans ; *Hot Temperature ; Climate Change ; Australia ; *Labor, Obstetric ; Sweat ; }, abstract = {Global heating is subjecting more of the planet to longer periods of higher heat stress categories commonly employed to determine safe work durations. This study compared predicted worker heat strain and labour capacity for a recent normal climate (1986-2005) and under commonly applied climate scenarios for the 2041-2080 period for selected Australian locations. Recently published heat indices for northern (Darwin, Townsville, and Tom Price) and south-eastern coastal and inland Australia locations (Griffith, Port Macquarie, and Clare) under four projected climate scenarios, comprising two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and two time periods, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, were used. Safe work durations, before the threshold for core temperature (38.0 °C) or sweat loss (5% body mass) are attained, were then estimated for each scenario using the predicted heat strain model (ISO7933). The modelled time to threshold core temperature varied with location, climate scenario, and metabolic rate. Relative to the baseline (1986-2005), safe work durations (labour capacity) were reduced by >50% in Port Macquarie and Griffith and by 20-50% in northern Australia. Reaching the sweat loss limit restricted safe work durations in Clare and Griffith. Projected future climatic conditions will adversely impact the predicted heat strain and labour capacity of outdoor workers in Australia. Risk management strategies must adapt to warming conditions to protect outdoor workers from the deleterious effects of heat.}, }
@article {pmid37172861, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, Y and Bu, Y and Wang, J and Wei, C}, title = {Geological events and climate change drive diversification and speciation of mute cicadas in eastern continental Asia.}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {184}, number = {}, pages = {107809}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2023.107809}, pmid = {37172861}, issn = {1095-9513}, mesh = {Animals ; Phylogeny ; *Genetic Variation ; *Hemiptera/genetics ; Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Phylogeography ; Asia, Eastern ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {The poor mobility of nymphs living underground, usually for many years, and the weak flying ability of adults make cicadas unique for evolutionary biology and bio-geographical study. Cicadas of the genus Karenia are unusual in Cicadidae in lacking the timbals that produce sound. Population differentiation, genetic structure, dispersal and evolutionary history of the eastern Asian mute cicada Karenia caelatata were investigated based on morphological, acoustic and molecular data. The results reveal a high level of genetic differentiation in this species. Six independent clades with nearly unique sets of haplotypes corresponding to geographically isolated populations are recognized. Genetic and geographic distances are significantly correlated among lineages. The phenotypic differentiation is generally consistent with the high levels of genetic divergence across populations. Results of ecological niche modeling suggest that the potential distribution range of this mountain-habitat specialist during the Last Glacial Maximum was broader than its current range, indicating this species had benefited from the climate change during the early Pleistocene in southern China. Geological events such as orogeny in Southwest China and Pleistocene climate oscillations have driven the differentiation and divergence of this species, and basins, plains and rivers function as natural "barriers" to block the gene flow. Besides significant genetic divergence being found among clades, the populations occurring in the Wuyi Mountains and the Hengduan Mountains are significantly different in the calling song structure from other populations. This may have resulted from significant population differentiation and subsequent adaptation of related populations. We conclude that ecological differences in habitats, coupled with geographical isolation, have driven population divergence and allopatric speciation. This study provides a plausible example of incipient speciation in Cicadidae and improves understanding of population differentiation, acoustic signal diversification and phylogeographic relationships of this unusual cicada species. It informs future studies on population differentiation, speciation and phylogeography of other mountain-habitat insects in the East Asian continent.}, }
@article {pmid37172846, year = {2023}, author = {Chia, RW and Lee, JY and Lee, M and Lee, GS and Jeong, CD}, title = {Role of soil microplastic pollution in climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {887}, number = {}, pages = {164112}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164112}, pmid = {37172846}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Microplastics ; Plastics ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Environmental Pollution ; Carbon ; Soil ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, environmental pollution from microplastic (MPs: <5 mm) and climate change have received international attention. However, these two issues have been primarily investigated separately hitherto, although they exhibit a cause-and-effect relationship. Studies considering MPs and climate change as causal entities have focused only on MP pollution in marine environments as a contributor to climate change. Meanwhile, systematic causal studies have not been performed inadequately to understand the role of soil, which is a primary terrestrial sink of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the context of MP pollution, in climate change. In this study, the causal effect of soil MP pollution on GHG emissions as direct and indirect contributors to climate change is systematically analyzed. The mechanisms underlying the contribution of soil MPs to climate change are discussed, and future research perspectives are suggested. Approximately 121 research manuscripts pertaining to MP pollution and its associated effects on GHGs, carbon sinks, and soil respiration, recorded between 2018 and 2023, are selected and cataloged from seven database categories in PubMed, Google Scholar, Nature's database, and Web of Science. Several studies demonstrated that soil MP pollution directly contributes to climate change by accelerating the emission of GHGs from the soil to the atmosphere and indirectly by promoting soil respiration and adversely affecting natural carbon sinks, such as trees. Other studies correlated the release of GHGs from the soil to mechanisms such as the alteration of soil aeration, methanogen activity, and carbon and nitrogen cycles, and improved the abundance of carbon and nitrogen soil microbial functional genes adhering to plant roots to create anoxic conditions for plant growth. In general, soil MP pollution increases the release of GHGs into the atmosphere, thereby contributing to climate change. However, further research is to be conducted by investigating the underlying mechanisms using more practical field-scale data.}, }
@article {pmid37171132, year = {2023}, author = {Bellone, R and Lechat, P and Mousson, L and Gilbart, V and Piorkowski, G and Bohers, C and Merits, A and Kornobis, E and Reveillaud, J and Paupy, C and Vazeille, M and Martinet, JP and Madec, Y and De Lamballerie, X and Dauga, C and Failloux, AB}, title = {Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a multi-omics approach of temperature-induced changes in the mosquito.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jtm/taad062}, pmid = {37171132}, issn = {1708-8305}, support = {ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID//Laboratoire d'Excellence 'Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases'/ ; 734548//European Union's Horizon/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Climate Change ; Temperature ; Multiomics ; *Chikungunya Fever/epidemiology ; *Chikungunya virus/genetics ; *Aedes ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and globalization contribute to the expansion of mosquito vectors and their associated pathogens. Long spared, temperate regions have had to deal with the emergence of arboviruses traditionally confined to tropical regions. Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was reported for the first time in Europe in 2007, causing a localized outbreak in Italy, which then recurred repeatedly over the years in other European localities. This raises the question of climate effects, particularly temperature, on the dynamics of vector-borne viruses. The objective of this study is to improve the understanding of the molecular mechanisms set up in the vector in response to temperature.<br><br>METHODS: We combine three complementary approaches by examining Aedes albopictus mosquito gene expression (transcriptomics), bacterial flora (metagenomics) and CHIKV evolutionary dynamics (genomics) induced by viral infection and temperature changes.<br><br>RESULTS: We show that temperature alters profoundly mosquito gene expression, bacterial microbiome and viral population diversity. We observe that (i) CHIKV infection upregulated most genes (mainly in immune and stress-related pathways) at 20&#xb0;C but not at 28&#xb0;C, (ii) CHIKV infection significantly increased the abundance of Enterobacteriaceae Serratia marcescens at 28&#xb0;C and (iii) CHIKV evolutionary dynamics were different according to temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The substantial changes detected in the vectorial system (the vector and its bacterial microbiota, and the arbovirus) lead to temperature-specific adjustments to reach the ultimate goal of arbovirus transmission; at 20&#xb0;C and 28&#xb0;C, the Asian tiger mosquito Ae. albopictus was able to transmit CHIKV at the same efficiency. Therefore, CHIKV is likely to continue its expansion in the northern regions and could become a public health problem in more countries than those already affected in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid37170416, year = {2023}, author = {Ruth, A and Svendsen, MBS and Nygaard, R and Christensen, EAF and Bushnell, PG and Steffensen, JF}, title = {Physiological effects of temperature on Greenland halibut Reinhardtius hippoglossoides shows high vulnerability of Arctic stenotherms to global warming.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {103}, number = {3}, pages = {675-683}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.15434}, pmid = {37170416}, issn = {1095-8649}, support = {//Danmarks Frie Forskningsfond/ ; //Elisabeth and Knud Petersen Foundation/ ; //Marianne Rasmussen/ ; //Solar Fonden af 1978/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Temperature ; *Global Warming ; *Flounder ; Greenland ; Climate Change ; Arctic Regions ; }, abstract = {Global warming affects the metabolism of ectothermic aquatic breathers forcing them to migrate and undergo high-latitudinal distribution shifts to circumvent the temperature-induced mismatch between increased metabolic demand and reduced water oxygen availability. Here the authors examined the effects of temperature on oxygen consumption rates in an Arctic stenotherm, the Greenland halibut Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, and calculated the optimal temperature for maximum aerobic scope, AS(Topt,AS), which was found to be 2.44°C. They also investigated cardiac performance as limiting the oxygen transport chain at high temperatures by measuring maximum heart rate (fHmax) over acute temperature increases and found various metrics related to fHmax to be at least 3.2°C higher than Topt,AS . The authors' measured Topt,AS closely reflected in situ temperature occurrences of Greenland halibut from long-term tagging studies, showing that AS of the species is adapted to its habitat temperature, and is thus a good proxy for the species' sensitivity to environmental warming. The authors did not find a close connection between fHmax and Topt,AS , suggesting that cardiac performance is not limiting for the oxygen transport chain at high temperatures in this particular Arctic stenotherm. The authors' estimate of the thermal envelope for AS of Greenland halibut was from -1.89 to 8.07°C, which is exceptionally narrow compared to most other species of fish. As ocean temperatures increase most rapidly in the Arctic in response to climate change, and species in these areas have limited possibility for further poleward-range shifts, these results suggest potential severe effects of global warming on Arctic stenotherms, such as the Greenland halibut. The considerable economic importance of the species raises concerns for future fisheries and species conservation of Arctic stenotherms in the Northern Hemisphere.}, }
@article {pmid37169187, year = {2023}, author = {Varela, R and de Castro, M and Dias, JM and Gómez-Gesteira, M}, title = {Coastal warming under climate change: Global, faster and heterogeneous.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {886}, number = {}, pages = {164029}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164029}, pmid = {37169187}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Seasons ; Global Warming ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The assessment of expected changes in coastal sea surface temperature (SST) on a global scale is becoming increasingly important due to the growing pressure on coastal ecosystems caused by climate change. To achieve this objective, 17 Global Climate Models from CMIP6 were used, with data from historical and hist-1950 experiments spanning 1982-2050. This analysis highlights significant warming of coastal areas worldwide, with higher and more variable rates of warming than observed in previous decades. All basins are projected to experience an increase in coastal SST near 1 °C by mid-century, with some regions exhibiting nearshore SST anomalies exceeding 2 °C for the period 2031-2050 relative to 1995-2014. Regarding the Eastern Upwelling Boundary Systems, only the Canary upwelling system and the southern part of the Humboldt upwelling system manage to show lower-than-average SST warming rates, maintaining, to a certain extent, their ability to buffer global warming.}, }
@article {pmid37167698, year = {2023}, author = {Giannetta, B and Plaza, C and Cassetta, M and Mariotto, G and Benavente-Ferraces, I and García-Gil, JC and Panettieri, M and Zaccone, C}, title = {The effects of biochar on soil organic matter pools are not influenced by climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {341}, number = {}, pages = {118092}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118092}, pmid = {37167698}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Soil/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Charcoal ; Carbon ; Particulate Matter ; }, abstract = {The sustainability of Mediterranean croplands is threatened by climate warming and rainfall reduction. The use of biochar as an amendment represents a tool to store organic carbon (C) in soil. The vulnerability of soil organic C (SOC) to the joint effects of climate change and biochar application needs to be better understood by investigating its main pools. Here, we evaluated the effects of partial rain exclusion (∼30%) and temperature increase (∼2 °C), combined with biochar amendment, on the distribution of soil organic matter (SOM) into particulate organic matter (POM) and the mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM). A set of indices suggested an increase in thermal stability in response to biochar addition in both POM and MAOM fractions. The MAOM fraction, compared to the POM, was particularly enriched in labile substances. Data from micro-Raman spectroscopy suggested that the POM fraction contained biochar particles with a more ordered structure, whereas the structural order decreased in the MAOM fraction, especially after climate manipulation. Crystalline Fe oxides (hematite) and a mix of ferrihydrite and hematite were detected in the POM and in the MAOM fraction, respectively, of the unamended plots under climate manipulation, but not under ambient conditions. Conversely, in the amended soil, climate manipulation did not induce changes in Fe speciation. Our work underlines the importance of discretely taking into account responses of both MAOM and POM to better understand the mechanistic drivers of SOC storage and dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid37167502, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Mahael-Adawy, AR and Siakasidibé,  and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The National medical journal of India}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {257-260}, doi = {10.25259/NMJI_810_2022}, pmid = {37167502}, issn = {0970-258X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid37165146, year = {2023}, author = {Peltier, TR and Shiratsuru, S and Zuckerberg, B and Romanski, M and Potvin, L and Edwards, A and Gilbert, JH and Aldred, TR and Dassow, A and Pauli, JN}, title = {Phenotypic variation in the molt characteristics of a seasonal coat color-changing species reveals limited resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {202}, number = {1}, pages = {69-82}, pmid = {37165146}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {1022626//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Hares ; Seasons ; Climate Change ; Molting ; Biological Variation, Population ; }, abstract = {The snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) possesses a broad suite of adaptations to winter, including a seasonal coat color molt. Recently, climate change has been implicated in the range contraction of snowshoe hares along the southern range boundary. With shortening snow season duration, snowshoe hares are experiencing increased camouflage mismatch with their environment reducing survival. Phenological variation of hare molt at regional scales could facilitate local adaptation in the face of climate change, but the level of variation, especially along the southern range boundary, is unknown. Using a network of trail cameras and historical museum specimens, we (1) developed contemporary and historical molt phenology curves in the Upper Great Lakes region, USA, (2) calculated molt rate and variability in and among populations, and (3) quantified the relationship of molt characteristics to environmental conditions for snowshoe hares across North America. We found that snowshoe hares across the region exhibited similar fall and spring molt phenologies, rates and variation. Yet, an insular island population of hares on Isle Royale National Park, MI, completed their molt a week earlier in the fall and initiated molt almost 2 weeks later in the spring as well as exhibited slower rates of molting in the fall season compared to the mainland. Over the last 100 years, snowshoe hares across the region have not shifted in fall molt timing; though contemporary spring molt appears to have advanced by 17 days (~ 4 days per decade) compared to historical molt phenology. Our research indicates that some variation in molt phenology exists for snowshoe hares in the Upper Great Lakes region, but whether this variation is enough to offset the consequences of climate change remains to be seen.}, }
@article {pmid37165058, year = {2023}, author = {Pérez, T and Vergara, SE and Silver, WL}, title = {Assessing the climate change mitigation potential from food waste composting.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {7608}, pmid = {37165058}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Composting ; *Refuse Disposal/methods ; Climate Change ; Food ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Oxygen ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Food waste is a dominant organic constituent of landfills, and a large global source of greenhouse gases. Composting food waste presents a potential opportunity for emissions reduction, but data on whole pile, commercial-scale emissions and the associated biogeochemical drivers are lacking. We used a non-invasive micrometeorological mass balance approach optimized for three-dimensional commercial-scale windrow compost piles to measure methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continuously during food waste composting. Greenhouse gas flux measurements were complemented with continuous oxygen (O2) and temperature sensors and intensive sampling for biogeochemical processes. Emission factors (EF) ranged from 6.6 to 8.8 kg CH4-C/Mg wet food waste and were driven primarily by low redox and watering events. Composting resulted in low N2O emissions (0.01 kg N2O-N/Mg wet food waste). The overall EF value (CH4 + N2O) for food waste composting was 926 kgCO2e/Mg of dry food waste. Composting emissions were 38-84% lower than equivalent landfilling fluxes with a potential net minimum savings of 1.4 MMT CO2e for California by year 2025. Our results suggest that food waste composting can help mitigate emissions. Increased turning during the thermophilic phase and less watering overall could potentially further lower emissions.}, }
@article {pmid37165034, year = {2023}, author = {Mtsetfwa, FP and Kruger, L and McCleery, RA}, title = {Climate change decouples dominant tree species in African savannas.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {7619}, pmid = {37165034}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Trees ; *Grassland ; Climate Change ; Seedlings ; Forecasting ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {To understand how two dominant African savanna trees will continue to respond to climate changes, we examined their regeneration niche and adult tree distributions. Specifically, we wanted to (1) determine if distributional patterns were shifting, (2) predict future distributions under different climate change scenarios and (3) evaluate the realism of predicted future distributions. We randomly placed 40 grids into 6 strata across a climate gradient in the kingdom of Eswatini. Within these grids, we sampled adult and seedling marula (Scelerocarya birrea) and knobthorn (Senegalia nigrecens) trees and used the data to model their abundance. Next, we quantified shifts in distributional patterns (e.g., expansion or contraction) by measuring the current and projected areas of overlap between seedling and adult trees. Finally, we predicted future distributions of abundance based on predicted climate conditions. We found knobthorn seedlings within a small portion of the adult distribution, suggesting it was unlikely to track climate changes. Alternatively, finding marula seedlings on and beyond one edge of the adult distribution, suggested its range would shift toward cooler climates. Predicted future distributions suggest suitable climate for both species would transition out of savannas and into grasslands. Future projections (2041-2070) appeared consistent with observed distributions of marula, but knobthorn predictions were unrealistic given the lack of evidence for regeneration outside of its current range. The idiosyncratic responses of these species to climate change are likely to decouple these keystone structures in the coming decades and are likely to have considerable cascading effects including the potential rearrangement of faunal communities.}, }
@article {pmid37164516, year = {2023}, author = {Li, C and Liu, Z and Li, W and Lin, Y and Hou, L and Niu, S and Xing, Y and Huang, J and Chen, Y and Zhang, S and Gao, X and Xu, Y and Wang, C and Zhao, Q and Liu, Q and Ma, W and Cai, W and Gong, P and Luo, Y}, title = {Projecting future risk of dengue related to hydrometeorological conditions in mainland China under climate change scenarios: a modelling study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {e397-e406}, pmid = {37164516}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {209734/Z/17/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Bayes Theorem ; Cities ; China/epidemiology ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: We have limited knowledge on the impact of hydrometeorological conditions on dengue incidence in China and its associated disease burden in a future with a changed climate. This study projects the excess risk of dengue caused by climate change-induced hydrometeorological conditions across mainland China.<br><br>METHODS: In this modelling study, the historical association between the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and dengue was estimated with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model from 70 cities. The association combined with the dengue-transmission biological model was used to project the annual excess risk of dengue related to PDSI by 2100 across mainland China, under three representative concentration pathways ([RCP] 2&#xb7;6, RCP 4&#xb7;5, and RCP 8&#xb7;5).<br><br>FINDINGS: 93&#x2008;101 dengue cases were reported between 2013 and 2019 in mainland China. Dry and wet conditions within 3 months lag were associated with increased risk of dengue. Locations with potential dengue risk in China will expand in the future. The hydrometeorological changes are projected to substantially affect the risk of dengue in regions with mid-to-low latitudes, especially the coastal areas under high emission scenarios. By 2100, the annual average increased excess risk is expected to range from 12&#xb7;56% (95% empirical CI 9&#xb7;54-22&#xb7;24) in northwest China to 173&#xb7;62% (153&#xb7;15-254&#xb7;82) in south China under the highest emission scenario.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Hydrometeorological conditions are predicted to increase the risk of dengue in the future in the south, east, and central areas of mainland China in disproportionate patterns. Our findings have implications for the preparation of public health interventions to minimise the health hazards of non-optimal hydrometeorological conditions in a context of climate change.<br><br>FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China.}, }
@article {pmid37164508, year = {2023}, author = {Van Hout, MC and Southalan, L and Kinner, S and Mhango, V and Mhlanga-Gunda, R}, title = {COVID-19, conflict, climate change, and the human rights of people living in African prisons.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {e352-e353}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00080-3}, pmid = {37164508}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Humans ; *Prisons ; Climate Change ; *COVID-19 ; Human Rights ; }, }
@article {pmid37164090, year = {2023}, author = {Tobias, W and Manfred, S and Klaus, J and Massimiliano, Z and Bettina, S}, title = {The future of Alpine Run-of-River hydropower production: Climate change, environmental flow requirements, and technical production potential.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {890}, number = {}, pages = {163934}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163934}, pmid = {37164090}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Rivers ; Computer Simulation ; Rain ; Power Plants ; }, abstract = {Past studies on the impacts of climate change (CC) on Alpine hydropower production have focused on high-head accumulation power plants. We provide one of the first comprehensive, simulation-based studies on CC impacts on Alpine Run-of-River (RoR) production, also considering effects of environmental flow requirements and technical increase potential. We simulate future electricity production under three emissions scenarios for 21 Swiss RoR plants with a total production of 5.9 TWh a[-1]. The simulations show an increase in winter production (4 % to 9 %) and a decrease in summer production (-2 % to -22 %), which together lead to an annual decrease of about -2 % to -7 % by the end of the century. The production loss due to environmental flow requirements is estimated at 3.5 % of the annual production; the largest low-elevation RoR power plants show little loss, while small and medium-sized power plants are most affected. The potential for increasing production by optimising the design discharge amounts to 8 % of the annual production. The largest increase potential is related to small and medium-sized power plants at high elevations. The key results are: i) there is no linear relationship between CC impacts on streamflow and on RoR production; the impacts depend on the usable streamflow volume, which is influenced by the Flow Duration Curve, environmental flow requirements, and design discharge; ii), the simulated production impacts show a strong correlation (>0.68) with the mean catchment elevation. The plants at the highest elevations even show an increase in annual production of 3 % to 23 %, due to larger shares of precipitation falling as rain instead of snow. These general results are transferable to RoR production in similar settings in other Alpine locations and should be considered in future assessments. Future work could focus on further technical optimisation potential, considering detailed operational data.}, }
@article {pmid37163600, year = {2023}, author = {Kang, SM and Shin, Y and Kim, H and Xie, SP and Hu, S}, title = {Disentangling the mechanisms of equatorial Pacific climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {19}, pages = {eadf5059}, pmid = {37163600}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Most state-of-art models project a reduced equatorial Pacific east-west temperature gradient and a weakened Walker circulation under global warming. However, the causes of this robust projection remain elusive. Here, we devise a series of slab ocean model experiments to diagnostically decompose the global warming response into the contributions from the direct carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, sea ice changes, and regional ocean heat uptake. The CO2 forcing dominates the Walker circulation slowdown through enhancing the tropical tropospheric stability. Antarctic sea ice changes and local ocean heat release are the dominant drivers for reduced zonal temperature gradient over the equatorial Pacific, while the Southern Ocean heat uptake opposes this change. Corroborating our model experiments, multimodel analysis shows that the models with greater Southern Ocean heat uptake exhibit less reduction in the temperature gradient and less weakening of the Walker circulation. Therefore, constraining the tropical Pacific projection requires a better insight into Southern Ocean processes.}, }
@article {pmid37162670, year = {2023}, author = {Arshad, M and Yu, CK and Qadir, A and Rafique, M}, title = {The influence of climate change, green innovation, and aspects of green dynamic capabilities as an approach to achieving sustainable development.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {27}, pages = {71340-71359}, pmid = {37162670}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Government ; *Sustainable Development ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {Green dynamic capability is acquiring significant traction among academics, practitioners, and policymakers; however, its relationship to green innovation, climate change, and sustainable development remains unclear. This study aims to identify green innovation within the context of developing nations to cover this void. Utilizing dynamic capability and stakeholder theory, this research illuminated the significance of green dynamic capability for sustainable development. Using a two-wave research methodology, the sample for this study was comprised of organizations from the Pakistani public sector. This investigation compiled data from 342 top and middle-level employees from the ministry of climate change, the ministry of agriculture, and the capital development authority (CDA). Using SEM SMART-PLS-path modeling to test hypotheses and investigate the model's causal links. Green innovation mediates the positive relationship between green dynamic capabilities and sustainable development, as indicated by the findings. However, neither green dynamic capabilities nor the relationship between green innovation and sustainable development is moderated by climate change. The findings of the study suggest strategies for government organizations to use green innovation in environmental literature. In addition, organizations will collaborate to develop strategies to combat climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37162274, year = {2023}, author = {Chu, J and Zhu, Y and Ji, J}, title = {Characterizing the semantic features of climate change misinformation on Chinese social media.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {32}, number = {7}, pages = {845-859}, doi = {10.1177/09636625231166542}, pmid = {37162274}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Humans ; *Semantics ; *Social Media ; Climate Change ; Communication ; }, abstract = {Climate change misinformation leads to significant adverse impacts and has become a global concern. Identifying misinformation and investigating its characteristics are of great importance to counteract misinformation. Therefore, this study aims to characterize the semantic features (frames and authority references) of climate change misinformation in the context of Chinese social media. Posts concerning climate change were collected from Weibo between January 2010 and December 2020. First, veracity, frames, and authority references were manually labeled. Then, we applied logistic regression to examine the relationship between information veracity and semantic features. The results revealed that posts concerning environmental and health impact and science and technology were more likely to be misinformation. Moreover, posts referencing non-specific authority sources are more likely to be misinformed than posts making no references to any authority references. This study provides a theoretical understanding of the semantic characteristics of climate change misinformation and practical suggestions for combating them.}, }
@article {pmid37161337, year = {2023}, author = {Benning, JW and Faulkner, A and Moeller, DA}, title = {Rapid evolution during climate change: demographic and genetic constraints on adaptation to severe drought.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {290}, number = {1998}, pages = {20230336}, pmid = {37161337}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Acclimatization ; Gene Flow ; Demography ; }, abstract = {Populations often vary in their evolutionary responses to a shared environmental perturbation. A key hurdle in building more predictive models of rapid evolution is understanding this variation-why do some populations and traits evolve while others do not? We combined long-term demographic and environmental data, estimates of quantitative genetic variance components, a resurrection experiment and individual-based evolutionary simulations to gain mechanistic insights into contrasting evolutionary responses to a severe multi-year drought. We examined five traits in two populations of a native California plant, Clarkia xantiana, at three time points over 7 years. Earlier flowering phenology evolved in only one of the two populations, though both populations experienced similar drought severity and demographic declines and were estimated to have considerable additive genetic variance for flowering phenology. Pairing demographic and experimental data with evolutionary simulations suggested that while seed banks in both populations probably constrained evolutionary responses, a stronger seed bank in the non-evolving population resulted in evolutionary stasis. Gene flow through time via germ banks may be an important, underappreciated control on rapid evolution in response to extreme environmental perturbations.}, }
@article {pmid37160983, year = {2023}, author = {Poeplau, C and Dechow, R}, title = {The legacy of one hundred years of climate change for organic carbon stocks in global agricultural topsoils.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {7483}, pmid = {37160983}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Soil organic carbon (SOC) of agricultural soils is observed to decline in many parts of the world. Understanding the reasons behind such losses is important for SOC accounting and formulating climate mitigation strategies. Disentangling the impact of last century's climate change from effects of preceding land use, management changes and erosion is difficult and most likely impossible to address in observations outside of warming experiments. However, the record of last century's climate change is available for every part of the globe, so the potential effect of climate change on SOC stocks can be modelled. In this study, an established and validated FAO framework was used to model global agricultural topsoil (0-30 cm) SOC stock dynamics from 1919 to 2018 as attributable to climate change. On average, global agricultural topsoils could have lost 2.5 ± 2.3 Mg C ha[-1] (3.9 ± 5.4%) with constant net primary production (NPP) or 1.6 ± 3.4 Mg C ha[-1] (2.5 ± 5.5%) when NPP was considered to be modified by temperature and precipitation. Regional variability could be explained by the complex patterns of changes in temperature and moisture, as well as initial SOC stocks. However, small average SOC losses have been an intrinsic and persistent feature of climate change in all climatic zones. This needs to be taken into consideration in reporting or accounting frameworks and halted in order to mitigate climate change and secure soil health.}, }
@article {pmid37155430, year = {2023}, author = {Lara-Arévalo, J and Escobar-Burgos, L and Moore, ERH and Neff, R and Spiker, ML}, title = {COVID-19, Climate Change, and Conflict in Honduras: A food system disruption analysis.}, journal = {Global food security}, volume = {37}, number = {}, pages = {100693}, pmid = {37155430}, issn = {2211-9124}, abstract = {In Honduras, as in many settings between 2020 and 2022, food security was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and conflicts-what some refer to as "The Three Cs." These challenges have had overlapping impacts on food supply chains, food assistance programs, food prices, household purchasing power, physical access to food, and food acceptability. This article applies a food system disruption analysis-adapted from a fault tree analysis originally developed for a municipal context in the United States-to the context of Honduras to systematically examine how the Three Cs affected food availability, accessibility, and acceptability. This article demonstrates the value of approaching food security through a disruption analysis, especially for settings impacted by multiple, interconnected, ongoing crises.}, }
@article {pmid37152891, year = {2023}, author = {Gómez-Casillas, A and Gómez Márquez, V}, title = {The effect of social network sites usage in climate change awareness in Latin America.}, journal = {Population and environment}, volume = {45}, number = {2}, pages = {7}, pmid = {37152891}, issn = {0199-0039}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Using data from the Latinobarómetro (Latin Barometer) survey of 2017 to analyze the effect of social network site usage on climate change awareness in 18 Latin American countries, this article makes three contributions. First, it offers results on the socioeconomic determinants of climate awareness in a region of the world where there is scant published evidence in this regard. Second, it shows the effect of social media consumption on climate change awareness by assessing the role of each of the most popular sites: YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Snapchat, and Tumblr. Third, it assesses the effects of multi-platform consumption. The results show that YouTube has the strongest and most robust positive and statistically significant effect on climate change awareness, followed by Instagram, Twitter, and WhatsApp, while being a multi-platform user also has a positive and statistically significant effect on climate change awareness. The implications of these findings for understanding the role of social media in the development of environmental awareness are discussed.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-023-00417-4.}, }
@article {pmid37152381, year = {2023}, author = {Majumder, J and Saha, I and Saha, A and Chakrabarti, A}, title = {Climate Change, Disasters, and Mental Health of Adolescents in India.}, journal = {Indian journal of psychological medicine}, volume = {45}, number = {3}, pages = {289-291}, pmid = {37152381}, issn = {0253-7176}, }
@article {pmid37152150, year = {2023}, author = {Dutta, TK and Vicente, CSL and Maleita, CMN and Phani, V}, title = {Editorial: Impact of global climate change on the interaction between plants and plant-parasitic nematodes.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1195970}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2023.1195970}, pmid = {37152150}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid37149777, year = {2023}, author = {Wylie, K}, title = {Climate change is a health issue we need to treat.}, journal = {Australian journal of general practice}, volume = {52}, number = {5}, pages = {253-254}, doi = {10.31128/AJGP-03-23-6778}, pmid = {37149777}, issn = {2208-7958}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid37149764, year = {2023}, author = {Seth, A and Maxwell, J and Dey, C and Le Feuvre, C and Patrick, R}, title = {Understanding and managing psychological distress due to climate change.}, journal = {Australian journal of general practice}, volume = {52}, number = {5}, pages = {263-268}, doi = {10.31128/AJGP-09-22-6556}, pmid = {37149764}, issn = {2208-7958}, mesh = {Humans ; Adaptation, Psychological ; Anxiety/epidemiology/etiology/therapy ; Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Psychological Distress ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Australia has warmed by 1.4°C since pre-industrial times. This is greater than the global average and is predicted to exceed 1.5°C by 2030. This will have significant environmental effects that can threaten human wellbeing. Most Australians have direct experience of climate change-related events, with health, social, cultural and economic impacts already evident and wide-ranging implications for mental health.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This article provides an overview of climate distress, which encompasses both 'climate anxiety' and other forms of distress related to climate change. It outlines the&#xa0;features and prevalence of climate distress, as well as&#xa0;approaches for assessment and management based on&#xa0;current evidence and theory.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate distress is common and can take many forms. These concerns may not be readily disclosed, but can be&#xa0;sensitively elicited, and patients may benefit from the opportunity for empathic, non-judgemental exploration of their experiences. Care must be taken not to pathologise rational distress while identifying maladaptive coping strategies and serious mental illness. Management should focus on adaptive coping strategies, use evidence&#x2011;based psychological interventions and draw upon emerging evidence about behavioural engagement, nature connection and group processes.}, }
@article {pmid37149762, year = {2023}, author = {Wylie, K}, title = {Climate change.}, journal = {Australian journal of general practice}, volume = {52}, number = {5}, pages = {253-254}, doi = {10.31128/AJGP-03-23-6778}, pmid = {37149762}, issn = {2208-7958}, }
@article {pmid37149169, year = {2023}, author = {Ross, FWR and Boyd, PW and Filbee-Dexter, K and Watanabe, K and Ortega, A and Krause-Jensen, D and Lovelock, C and Sondak, CFA and Bach, LT and Duarte, CM and Serrano, O and Beardall, J and Tarbuck, P and Macreadie, PI}, title = {Potential role of seaweeds in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {885}, number = {}, pages = {163699}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163699}, pmid = {37149169}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Seaweed ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Seaweed (macroalgae) has attracted attention globally given its potential for climate change mitigation. A topical and contentious question is: Can seaweeds' contribution to climate change mitigation be enhanced at globally meaningful scales? Here, we provide an overview of the pressing research needs surrounding the potential role of seaweed in climate change mitigation and current scientific consensus via eight key research challenges. There are four categories where seaweed has been suggested to be used for climate change mitigation: 1) protecting and restoring wild seaweed forests with potential climate change mitigation co-benefits; 2) expanding sustainable nearshore seaweed aquaculture with potential climate change mitigation co-benefits; 3) offsetting industrial CO2 emissions using seaweed products for emission abatement; and 4) sinking seaweed into the deep sea to sequester CO2. Uncertainties remain about quantification of the net impact of carbon export from seaweed restoration and seaweed farming sites on atmospheric CO2. Evidence suggests that nearshore seaweed farming contributes to carbon storage in sediments below farm sites, but how scalable is this process? Products from seaweed aquaculture, such as the livestock methane-reducing seaweed Asparagopsis or low carbon food resources show promise for climate change mitigation, yet the carbon footprint and emission abatement potential remains unquantified for most seaweed products. Similarly, purposely cultivating then sinking seaweed biomass in the open ocean raises ecological concerns and the climate change mitigation potential of this concept is poorly constrained. Improving the tracing of seaweed carbon export to ocean sinks is a critical step in seaweed carbon accounting. Despite carbon accounting uncertainties, seaweed provides many other ecosystem services that justify conservation and restoration and the uptake of seaweed aquaculture will contribute to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, we caution that verified seaweed carbon accounting and associated sustainability thresholds are needed before large-scale investment into climate change mitigation from seaweed projects.}, }
@article {pmid37149163, year = {2023}, author = {Jiménez-Navarro, IC and Mesman, JP and Pierson, D and Trolle, D and Nielsen, A and Senent-Aparicio, J}, title = {Application of an integrated catchment-lake model approach for simulating effects of climate change on lake inputs and biogeochemistry.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {885}, number = {}, pages = {163946}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163946}, pmid = {37149163}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is simultaneously affecting lakes and their catchments, resulting in altered runoff patterns in the catchment and modified mixing and biogeochemical dynamics in lakes. The effects of climate change in a catchment will eventually have an impact on the dynamics of a downstream water body as well. An integrated model would allow considering how changes in the watershed affect the lake, but coupled modelling studies are rare. In this study we integrate a catchment model (SWAT+) and a lake model (GOTM-WET) to obtain holistic predictions for Lake Erken, Sweden. Using five different global climate models, projections of climate, catchment loads and lake water quality for the mid and end of the 21st century have been obtained under two future scenarios (SSP 2-45 and SSP 5-85). Temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration will increase in the future, overall resulting in an increase in water inflow to the lake. An increasing importance of surface runoff will also have consequences on the catchment soil, hydrologic flow paths, and the input of nutrients to the lake. In the lake, water temperatures will rise, leading to increased stratification and a drop in oxygen levels. Nitrate levels are predicted to remain unchanged, while phosphate and ammonium levels increase. A coupled catchment-lake configuration such as that illustrated here allows prediction of future biogeochemical conditions of a lake, including linking land use changes to changing lake conditions, as well as eutrophication and browning studies. Since climate affects both the lake and the catchment, simulations of climate change should ideally take into account both systems.}, }
@article {pmid37146824, year = {2023}, author = {Yang, S and Zhang, L and Zhu, G}, title = {Effects of transport infrastructures and climate change on ecosystem services in the integrated transport corridor region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {885}, number = {}, pages = {163961}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163961}, pmid = {37146824}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The ecosystem services of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have been hot topics in recent decades due to their unique value, and the region's sensitivity to climate change and human activities is considered to be of major importance. However, few studies have focused on the variations of ecosystem services in response to traffic activities and climate change. This study applied different ecosystem service models, along with the buffer analysis, local correlation and regression analysis to quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal variations of carbon sequestration, habitat quality, and soil retention, further detected the climatic and traffic influences in the transport corridor region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2020. The obtained results showed the following: (1) The carbon sequestration and soil retention increased over time, while the habitat quality decreased during the railway construction period; in addition, the variations of ecosystem services between the two periods exhibited substantial spatial differences. (2) The distance trends of ecosystem service variations were similar for the railway and the highway corridors, and the positive ecosystem service trends were mainly observed within 2.5 km and 2 km of railway and highway corridors, respectively. (3) The impacts of climatic factors on ecosystem services were predominantly positive; however, temperature and precipitation displayed contrasting distance trends in their impacts on carbon sequestration. (4) The types of frozen ground and locations away from the railway or highway were the combined factors affecting the ecosystem services, among which carbon sequestration was negatively influenced by the distance from the highway in the continuous permafrost areas. It can be speculated that rising temperatures caused by climate change may intensify the decline of carbon sequestration in the continuous permafrost areas. This study provides guidance on ecological protection strategies for future expressway construction projects.}, }
@article {pmid37146812, year = {2023}, author = {Valencia Cotera, R and Guillaumot, L and Sahu, RK and Nam, C and Lierhammer, L and Máñez Costa, M}, title = {An assessment of water management measures for climate change adaptation of agriculture in Seewinkel.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {885}, number = {}, pages = {163906}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163906}, pmid = {37146812}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid37144480, year = {2023}, author = {McClanahan, TR and Darling, ES and Beger, M and Fox, HE and Grantham, HS and Jupiter, SD and Logan, CA and Mcleod, E and McManus, LC and Oddenyo, RM and Surya, GS and Wenger, AS and Zinke, J and Maina, JM}, title = {Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {e14108}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.14108}, pmid = {37144480}, issn = {1523-1739}, support = {//U.S. Department of the Interior's International Technical Assistance Program (DOI-ITAP)/ ; //Bloomberg Family Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses of climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one of the key recommendations for climate change adaptation. We review and summarize approximately 30 years of applied research focused on identifying climate refugia to prioritize the conservation actions for coral reefs under rapid climate change. We found that currently proposed climate refugia and the locations predicted to avoid future coral losses are highly reliant on excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, and life-history variables could be used to identify other types of refugia that lead to the desired diversified portfolio for coral reef conservation. To improve conservation priorities for coral reefs, there is a need to evaluate and validate the predictions of climate refugia with long-term field data on coral abundance, diversity, and functioning. There is also the need to identify and safeguard locations displaying resistance toprolonged exposure to heat waves and the ability to recover quickly after thermal exposure. We recommend using more metrics to identify a portfolio of potential refugia sites for coral reefs that can avoid, resist, and recover from exposure to high ocean temperatures and the consequences of climate change, thereby shifting past efforts focused on avoidance to a diversified risk-spreading portfolio that can be used to improve strategic coral reef conservation in a rapidly warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid37144131, year = {2023}, author = {Singh, C and Kumar, R and Sehgal, H and Bhati, S and Singhal, T and Gayacharan,  and Nimmy, MS and Yadav, R and Gupta, SK and Abdallah, NA and Hamwieh, A and Kumar, R}, title = {Unclasping potentials of genomics and gene editing in chickpea to fight climate change and global hunger threat.}, journal = {Frontiers in genetics}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1085024}, pmid = {37144131}, issn = {1664-8021}, abstract = {Genomics and genome editing promise enormous opportunities for crop improvement and elementary research. Precise modification in the specific targeted location of a genome has profited over the unplanned insertional events which are generally accomplished employing unadventurous means of genetic modifications. The advent of new genome editing procedures viz; zinc finger nucleases (ZFNs), homing endonucleases, transcription activator like effector nucleases (TALENs), Base Editors (BEs), and Primer Editors (PEs) enable molecular scientists to modulate gene expressions or create novel genes with high precision and efficiency. However, all these techniques are exorbitant and tedious since their prerequisites are difficult processes that necessitate protein engineering. Contrary to first generation genome modifying methods, CRISPR/Cas9 is simple to construct, and clones can hypothetically target several locations in the genome with different guide RNAs. Following the model of the application in crop with the help of the CRISPR/Cas9 module, various customized Cas9 cassettes have been cast off to advance mark discrimination and diminish random cuts. The present study discusses the progression in genome editing apparatuses, and their applications in chickpea crop development, scientific limitations, and future perspectives for biofortifying cytokinin dehydrogenase, nitrate reductase, superoxide dismutase to induce drought resistance, heat tolerance and higher yield in chickpea to encounter global climate change, hunger and nutritional threats.}, }
@article {pmid37143891, year = {2023}, author = {Lam, S and Dodd, W and Nguyen-Viet, H and Unger, F and Le, TTH and Dang-Xuan, S and Skinner, K and Papadopoulos, A and Harper, SL}, title = {How can climate change and its interaction with other compounding risks be considered in evaluation? Experiences from Vietnam.}, journal = {Evaluation (London, England : 1995)}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {228-249}, pmid = {37143891}, issn = {1356-3890}, abstract = {While evaluations play a critical role in accounting for and learning from context, it is unclear how evaluations can take account of climate change. Our objective was to explore how climate change and its interaction with other contextual factors influenced One Health food safety programs. To do so, we integrated questions about climate change into a qualitative evaluation study of an ongoing, multi-sectoral program aiming to improve pork safety in Vietnam called SafePORK. We conducted remote interviews with program researchers (n = 7) and program participants (n = 23). Based on our analysis, researchers believed climate change had potential impacts on the program but noted evidence was lacking, while program participants (slaughterhouse workers and retailers) shared how they were experiencing and adapting to the impacts of climate change. Climate change also interacted with other contextual factors to introduce additional complexities. Our study underscored the importance of assessing climate factors in evaluation and building adaptive capacity in programming.}, }
@article {pmid37143867, year = {2023}, author = {Bago, B and Rand, DG and Pennycook, G}, title = {Reasoning about climate change.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {2}, number = {5}, pages = {pgad100}, pmid = {37143867}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {Why is disbelief in anthropogenic climate change common despite broad scientific consensus to the contrary? A widely held explanation involves politically motivated (system 2) reasoning: Rather than helping uncover the truth, people use their reasoning abilities to protect their partisan identities and reject beliefs that threaten those identities. Despite the popularity of this account, the evidence supporting it (i) does not account for the fact that partisanship is confounded with prior beliefs about the world and (ii) is entirely correlational with respect to the effect of reasoning. Here, we address these shortcomings by (i) measuring prior beliefs and (ii) experimentally manipulating participants' extent of reasoning using cognitive load and time pressure while they evaluate arguments for or against anthropogenic global warming. The results provide no support for the politically motivated system 2 reasoning account over other accounts: Engaging in more reasoning led people to have greater coherence between judgments and their prior beliefs about climate change-a process that can be consistent with rational (unbiased) Bayesian reasoning-and did not exacerbate the impact of partisanship once prior beliefs are accounted for.}, }
@article {pmid37142821, year = {2023}, author = {Smith, AT and Kim, EJ}, title = {Potential Effects of Global Warming on Heart Failure Decompensation.}, journal = {Journal of general internal medicine}, volume = {38}, number = {10}, pages = {2234-2235}, pmid = {37142821}, issn = {1525-1497}, mesh = {Humans ; *Global Warming ; *Heart Failure/epidemiology/therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid37142484, year = {2023}, author = {Arnot, G and Thomas, S and Pitt, H and Warner, E}, title = {"It shows we are serious": Young people in Australia discuss climate justice protests as a mechanism for climate change advocacy and action.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {47}, number = {3}, pages = {100048}, doi = {10.1016/j.anzjph.2023.100048}, pmid = {37142484}, issn = {1753-6405}, mesh = {Humans ; Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; Australia ; Social Justice ; *Disabled Persons ; Family ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This article aims to understand young Australians' perspectives of climate justice protests as a mechanism for climate change advocacy and action.<br><br>METHOD: A qualitatively led online survey was conducted with n=511 young Australians (15-24 years). Open-text questions prompted for young people's perceptions of the appeal, accessibility, and effectiveness of climate justice protests in climate change action. A reflexive thematic analysis was conducted to construct themes from the data.<br><br>RESULTS: Participants perceived that protests were an important mechanism for young people to draw attention to the need for climate action. However, they also stated that the clear messages that were sent to governments via protests did not necessarily lead to government action. Young people perceived that there were some structural issues that prevented them from taking part in these types of activities, including living far away from protests, not being accessible for young people with disabilities, and limited support from family members and/or friends to participate.<br><br>Climate justice activities engage young people and give them hope. The public health community has a role to play in supporting access to these activities and championing young people as genuine political actors in addressing the climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid37142022, year = {2023}, author = {Queirós, V and Azeiteiro, UM and Belloso, MC and Santos, JL and Alonso, E and Soares, AMVM and Freitas, R and Piña, B and Barata, C}, title = {Effects of ifosfamide and cisplatin exposure combined with a climate change scenario on the transcriptome responses of the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {885}, number = {}, pages = {163904}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163904}, pmid = {37142022}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Cisplatin/toxicity ; *Mytilus/physiology ; Ifosfamide/toxicity ; Transcriptome ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; *Antineoplastic Agents ; }, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems are currently exposed to pollutants and climate change. Namely, the increasing consumption of antineoplastic drugs and their potential release to aquatic ecosystems are raising concerns. Nevertheless, information regarding the toxicity of these drugs towards non-target species is scarce, especially considering climate change scenarios. Ifosfamide (IF) and cisplatin (CDDP) are among the antineoplastics already detected in aquatic compartments and due to their mode of action (MoA) can negatively affect aquatic organisms. This study evaluates the transcription of 17 selected target genes related to the MoA of IF and CDDP in Mytilus galloprovincialis gills exposed to environmentally relevant and toxicological meaningful concentrations (IF - 10, 100, 500 ng/L; CDDP - 10, 100, 1000 ng/L), under an actual (17 °C) and predicted warming scenario (21 °C). Results showed an upregulation of the cyp4y1 gene when exposed to the highest concentrations of IF, regardless of the temperature. Both drugs upregulated genes related to DNA damage and apoptosis (p53, caspase 8 and gadd45), especially under warmer conditions. Increased temperature also downregulated genes related to stress and immune responses (krs and mydd88). Therefore, the present results showed a gene transcriptional response of mussels to increasing concentrations of antineoplastics and that warmer temperatures modulated those effects.}, }
@article {pmid37131451, year = {2023}, author = {Awuni, S and Adarkwah, F and Ofori, BD and Purwestri, RC and Huertas Bernal, DC and Hajek, M}, title = {Managing the challenges of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in Ghana.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e15491}, pmid = {37131451}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Ghana's economy is climate sensitive as more than 80% of its agricultural production is rainfall dependent, with only 2% of irrigation potential used. This has consequences under changing climate, with the impact projected to intensify if things go in a business-as-usual scenario. The manifestation of climate change impact is evident in other sectors of the economy, which requires proactiveness to adapt and mitigate through the development and execution of national adaptation strategies. This research reviews the impact of climate change and some interventions made toward its management. The study explored peer-reviewed journals, policy documents, and technical reports for relevant materials that chronicle programmes and measures to address the challenges of climate change. The research revealed that Ghana had experienced about 1 °C rise in temperature over the past four decades and sea level rise with socioeconomic consequences including decreased agricultural productivity and inundation of coastal communities. Policy interventions have resulted in the introduction of several mitigative and adaptation programmes, such as building resilience in various economic sectors. The study highlighted the progress and challenges to climate change implementation programmes and future policy implementation plans. Inadequate funding of programmes and projects was identified as a critical challenge to achieving climate change policy goals and objectives. We recommend more political will from the government and stakeholders towards policy implementation and greater commitment to providing adequate funding for programmes and project implementation to ensure the success of local climate action for adaptation and mitigation, as well as for sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid37131070, year = {2023}, author = {Singh, BK and Delgado-Baquerizo, M and Egidi, E and Guirado, E and Leach, JE and Liu, H and Trivedi, P}, title = {Climate change impacts on plant pathogens, food security and paths forward.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {640-656}, pmid = {37131070}, issn = {1740-1534}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Plants ; Biodiversity ; Food Security ; }, abstract = {Plant disease outbreaks pose significant risks to global food security and environmental sustainability worldwide, and result in the loss of primary productivity and biodiversity that negatively impact the environmental and socio-economic conditions of affected regions. Climate change further increases outbreak risks by altering pathogen evolution and host-pathogen interactions and facilitating the emergence of new pathogenic strains. Pathogen range can shift, increasing the spread of plant diseases in new areas. In this Review, we examine how plant disease pressures are likely to change under future climate scenarios and how these changes will relate to plant productivity in natural and agricultural ecosystems. We explore current and future impacts of climate change on pathogen biogeography, disease incidence and severity, and their effects on natural ecosystems, agriculture and food production. We propose that amendment of the current conceptual framework and incorporation of eco-evolutionary theories into research could improve our mechanistic understanding and prediction of pathogen spread in future climates, to mitigate the future risk of disease outbreaks. We highlight the need for a science-policy interface that works closely with relevant intergovernmental organizations to provide effective monitoring and management of plant disease under future climate scenarios, to ensure long-term food and nutrient security and sustainability of natural ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid37129840, year = {2023}, author = {Neale, PJ and Williamson, CE and Banaszak, AT and Häder, DP and Hylander, S and Ossola, R and Rose, KC and Wängberg, S&#xc5; and Zepp, R}, title = {The response of aquatic ecosystems to the interactive effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {1093-1127}, pmid = {37129840}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Stratospheric Ozone ; Ultraviolet Rays ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Plastics ; Seawater ; *Ozone Depletion ; *Ozone ; }, abstract = {Variations in stratospheric ozone and changes in the aquatic environment by climate change and human activity are modifying the exposure of aquatic ecosystems to UV radiation. These shifts in exposure have consequences for the distributions of species, biogeochemical cycles, and services provided by aquatic ecosystems. This Quadrennial Assessment presents the latest knowledge on the multi-faceted interactions between the effects of UV irradiation and climate change, and other anthropogenic activities, and how these conditions are changing aquatic ecosystems. Climate change results in variations in the depth of mixing, the thickness of ice cover, the duration of ice-free conditions and inputs of dissolved organic matter, all of which can either increase or decrease exposure to UV radiation. Anthropogenic activities release oil, UV filters in sunscreens, and microplastics into the aquatic environment that are then modified by UV radiation, frequently amplifying adverse effects on aquatic organisms and their environments. The impacts of these changes in combination with factors such as warming and ocean acidification are considered for aquatic micro-organisms, macroalgae, plants, and animals (floating, swimming, and attached). Minimising the disruptive consequences of these effects on critical services provided by the world's rivers, lakes and oceans (freshwater supply, recreation, transport, and food security) will not only require continued adherence to the Montreal Protocol but also a wider inclusion of solar UV radiation and its effects in studies and/or models of aquatic ecosystems under conditions of the future global climate.}, }
@article {pmid37126996, year = {2023}, author = {Jannis, E and Vinnå, LR and Annette, A and Stefan, S and Schilling, OS}, title = {Climate change adaptation and mitigation measures for alluvial aquifers - Solution approaches based on the thermal exploitation of managed aquifer (MAR) and surface water recharge (MSWR).}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {238}, number = {}, pages = {119988}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.119988}, pmid = {37126996}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {*Water ; Climate Change ; *Groundwater ; Water Resources ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {As climate change adaptation strategies, both Managed Aquifer (MAR) and Surface Water Recharge (MSWR) are not only highly suitable tools to mitigate negative effects on water resources but also bear large potential for concomitant exploitation of thermal energy. They should thus form an integral part of any sustainable water resources management strategy. However, while at global scale general water resource adaptation and mitigation measures are discussed widely, measures that build on thermal exploitation of MAR and MSWR, and which are readily adaptable to various different local and regional scale conditions, have yet to be developed. Here, based on systematic numerical analyses of the sensitivity of groundwater and surface water recharge as well as water temperatures to climate change, we present adaptable implementation strategies of MAR and MSWR with concomitant exploitation of their thermal energy potential. Strategies and feasibility benchmarks for the exploitation of hydrologic and energetic potentials of MAR and MSWR were developed based on three hydrologically and hydrogeologically contrasting urban study sites near the city of Basel, Switzerland. Our studies show projected trends in the number of days when surface water temperatures exceed 25 °C examined for various streamflow and climate scenarios. We illustrate that local hydrogeologic settings and hydrological boundary conditions as well as legal aspects affect to which degree MAR and MSWR are suitable solutions as climate change adaptation measures. Optimal situations for exploiting the potential of seasonal heat storage in MAR and MSWR exist where subsurface travel times between the injection and the withdrawal or exfiltration point are between 4 and 8 months and legal limits allow a sufficiently large temperature spread. In such settings, the exploitable water flux and temperature spread of MAR and MSWR reaches a heat potential of 14 to 20 MW (i.e., corresponding to 3 to 7 wind power plants), and energetic exploitation becomes a suitable tool either for local low-temperature heat applications such as heating and hot water or for ecological use as a heat and water buffer in rivers affected by seasonal droughts. As a positive side effect, climate-induced warming of groundwater resources and temperature increases in drinking water withdrawals would be mitigated simultaneously.}, }
@article {pmid37126972, year = {2023}, author = {Martin-Kerry, JM and Graham, HM and Lampard, P}, title = {'I don't really associate climate change with actual people's health': a qualitative study in England of perceptions of climate change and its impacts on health.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {219}, number = {}, pages = {85-90}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2023.03.020}, pmid = {37126972}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Weather ; United Kingdom ; Qualitative Research ; England ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The health impacts of climate change are increasing, but qualitative evidence on people's perceptions is limited. This qualitative study investigated people's perceptions of climate change and its impacts on health.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: This was an online study using semistructured interviews.<br><br>METHODS: A total of 41 semistructured interviews were conducted in 2021 with members of the public aged &#x2265;15 years living in England, recruited via community-based groups. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Participants were concerned about climate change, which was often perceived as extreme weather events happening elsewhere. Changes in the UK's seasons and weather patterns were noted, but participants were uncertain whether these changes resulted from climate change. Participants often struggled to identify health impacts of climate change; where health impacts were described, they tended to be linked to extreme weather events outside the United Kingdom and their associated threats to life. The mental health impacts of such events were also noted.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study found that most participants did not perceive climate change to be affecting people's health in England. This raises questions about whether framing climate change as a health issue, an approach advocated for countries less exposed to the direct effects of climate change, will increase its salience for the British public.}, }
@article {pmid37126851, year = {2023}, author = {Bayram, H and Rice, MB and Abdalati, W and Akpinar Elci, M and Mirsaeidi, M and Annesi-Maesano, I and Pinkerton, KE and Balmes, JR}, title = {Impact of Global Climate Change on Pulmonary Health: Susceptible and Vulnerable Populations.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {1088-1095}, doi = {10.1513/AnnalsATS.202212-996CME}, pmid = {37126851}, issn = {2325-6621}, support = {P30 ES023513/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P51 OD011107/CD/ODCDC CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Aged ; Climate Change ; Vulnerable Populations ; Ecosystem ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Hypersensitivity ; }, abstract = {As fossil fuel combustion continues to power the global economy, the rate of climate change is accelerating, causing severe respiratory health impacts and large disparities in the degree of human suffering. Hotter and drier climates lead to longer and more severe wildland fire seasons, impairing air quality around the globe. Hotter temperatures lead to higher amounts of ozone and particles, causing the exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases and premature mortality. Longer pollen seasons and higher pollen concentrations provoke allergic airway diseases. In arid regions, accelerated land degradation and desertification are promoting dust pollution and impairing food production and nutritional content that are essential to respiratory health. Extreme weather events and flooding impede healthcare delivery and can lead to poor indoor air quality due to mold overgrowth. Climate and human activities that harm the environment and ecosystem may also affect the emergence and spread of viral infections, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and associated morbidity and mortality exacerbated by air pollution. Children and elderly individuals are more susceptible to the adverse health effects of climate change. Geographical and socioeconomic circumstances, together with a decreased capacity to adapt, collectively increase vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change. Successful mitigation of anthropogenic climate change is dependent on the commitment of energy-intensive nations to manage greenhouse gas emissions, as well as societal support and response to aggravating factors. In this review, we focus on the respiratory health impacts of global climate change, with an emphasis on susceptible and vulnerable populations and low- and middle-income countries.}, }
@article {pmid37126701, year = {2023}, author = {Halupka, L and Arlt, D and Tolvanen, J and Millon, A and Bize, P and Adamík, P and Albert, P and Arendt, WJ and Artemyev, AV and Baglione, V and Bańbura, J and Bańbura, M and Barba, E and Barrett, RT and Becker, PH and Belskii, E and Bolton, M and Bowers, EK and Bried, J and Brouwer, L and Bukacińska, M and Bukaciński, D and Bulluck, L and Carstens, KF and Catry, I and Charter, M and Chernomorets, A and Covas, R and Czuchra, M and Dearborn, DC and de Lope, F and Di Giacomo, AS and Dombrovski, VC and Drummond, H and Dunn, MJ and Eeva, T and Emmerson, LM and Espmark, Y and Fargallo, JA and Gashkov, SI and Golubova, EY and Griesser, M and Harris, MP and Hoover, JP and Jagiełło, Z and Karell, P and Kloskowski, J and Koenig, WD and Kolunen, H and Korczak-Abshire, M and Korpimäki, E and Krams, I and Krist, M and Krüger, SC and Kuranov, BD and Lambin, X and Lombardo, MP and Lyakhov, A and Marzal, A and Møller, AP and Neves, VC and Nielsen, JT and Numerov, A and Orłowska, B and Oro, D and Öst, M and Phillips, RA and Pietiäinen, H and Polo, V and Porkert, J and Potti, J and Pöysä, H and Printemps, T and Prop, J and Quillfeldt, P and Ramos, JA and Ravussin, PA and Rosenfield, RN and Roulin, A and Rubenstein, DR and Samusenko, IE and Saunders, DA and Schaub, M and Senar, JC and Sergio, F and Solonen, T and Solovyeva, DV and Stępniewski, J and Thompson, PM and Tobolka, M and Török, J and van de Pol, M and Vernooij, L and Visser, ME and Westneat, DF and Wheelwright, NT and Wiącek, J and Wiebe, KL and Wood, AG and Wuczyński, A and Wysocki, D and Zárybnická, M and Margalida, A and Halupka, K}, title = {The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {19}, pages = {e2208389120}, pmid = {37126701}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; *Climate Change ; Seasons ; Chickens ; Reproduction ; *Life History Traits ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.}, }
@article {pmid37126591, year = {2023}, author = {James Amos, A}, title = {Thinking clearly about climate change and mental health.}, journal = {Australasian psychiatry : bulletin of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {369-375}, pmid = {37126591}, issn = {1440-1665}, mesh = {Humans ; *Mental Health ; Climate Change ; *Suicide ; Temperature ; Linear Models ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To examine the quality and strength of evidence for an association between temperature increases caused by climate change and suicide used in policy documents to advocate for radical changes to healthcare systems in pursuit of decarbonisation.<br><br>METHOD: The designs of articles collected in a systematic review which concluded that there was an association between climate change and increased rates of suicide were analysed for their capacity to support this conclusion. Complete US data covering temperatures and suicide rates between 1968 and 2004 was aggregated and analysed using linear regression to evaluate evidence for an association between temperature and suicide.<br><br>RESULTS: None of the articles collected in the review has a design capable of investigating whether there is an association between temperature increases caused by climate change and rates of suicide. At the national level increased annual US temperatures were associated with a decrease in the rate of suicide, and at the state level it was common for high average temperature states to have low rates of suicide and vice versa.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Policy recommendations for radical changes in healthcare services have been based on misrepresented evidence. Policy makers should beware of recommendations that ignore scientific evidence to pursue faith-based goals.}, }
@article {pmid37126168, year = {2023}, author = {Fernández-González, R and Puime-Guillén, F and Moutinho, VMF and de Oliveira, HMS}, title = {Urban mobility trends and climate change: sustainability policies in the parking industry.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {27}, pages = {69899-69912}, pmid = {37126168}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {ED481B2018/095//Xunta de Galicia/ ; ED431C2018/48//Xunta de Galicia/ ; ED431E2018/07//Xunta de Galicia/ ; MCIN/ AEI/10.13039/501100011033///Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Industry ; Environmental Policy ; Spain ; }, abstract = {The concern to create cleaner and more ecosystem-friendly production processes has extended to the parking sector in Spain. Since the creation of the multi-level institutional framework for sustainable mobility management (mainly composed of the Infrastructure, Transport and Housing Plan 2012-2024, the Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans, Law 9/2006, and Law 9/2017), environmental considerations, including sustainable management certificates, have occupied a privileged place in public procedures for the management of parking structures and regulated surface parking facilities. Although there have been previous academic studies on the design and implementation of SUMPs and the growth of the parking sector, this article is novel in that it analyzes the market concentration of the parking sector in a scenario where climate change policies are crucial and the importance of sustainability certificates takes on a new meaning. Therefore, the objective of this article is to analyze whether the growing importance of environmental aspects has led to an increase in the concentration level of the parking sector in Spain. For this purpose, several concentration and stability indices are calculated. The results show that, although there are additional factors, the certification of a cleaner activity is relevant in the process of public tenders in the sector, which has served to strengthen the dominance of the most prominent companies in the sector that are in possession of environmental certificates. This shows that environmental policies can also have negative effects on the market, so the results of this analysis are of great value to policymakers.}, }
@article {pmid37126162, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, Y and Hou, L and Shi, J and Li, Y and Wang, Y and Zheng, Y}, title = {How climate change affects electricity consumption in Chinese cities-a differential perspective based on municipal monthly panel data.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {26}, pages = {68577-68590}, pmid = {37126162}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {KJQN202201513//Chongqing Municipal Education Commission/ ; YKJCX2220616//Graduate Student Innovation Program of Chongqing University of Science and Technology/ ; }, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; China ; *Economic Development ; Electricity ; }, abstract = {Addressing the impacts of climate change has become a global public crisis and challenge. China is characterized by a complex and diverse topography and vast territory, which makes it worthwhile to explore the differential impacts of climate change on urban electricity consumption in different zones and economic development conditions. This study examines the differential impact of climate factors on urban electricity consumption in China based on monthly panel data for 282 prefectures from 2011 to 2019 and projects the potential demand for future urban electricity consumption under different climate change scenarios. The results show that (1) temperature changes significantly alter urban electricity consumption, with cooling degree days (CDD) and heating degree days (HDD) contributing positively to urban electricity consumption in areas with different regional and economic development statuses, with elasticity coefficients of 0.1015-0.1525 and 0.0029-0.0077, respectively. (2) The temperature-electricity relationship curve shows an irregular U-shape. Each additional day of extreme weather above 30 °C and below -12 °C increases urban electricity consumption by 0.52% and 1.52% in the north and by 2.67% and 1.32% in the south. Poor cities are significantly more sensitive to extremely low temperatures than rich cities. (3) Suppose the impacts of climate degradation on urban electricity consumption are not halted. In that case, the possible Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1-1.9 (SSP1-1.9), SSP1-2.6, and SSP2-4.5 will increase China's urban electricity consumption by 1621.96 billion kWh, 2960.87 billion kWh, and 6145.65 billion kWh, respectively, by 2090. Finally, this study makes some policy recommendations and expectations for follow-up studies.}, }
@article {pmid37125022, year = {2023}, author = {Hartinger, SM and Yglesias-González, M and Blanco-Villafuerte, L and Palmeiro-Silva, YK and Lescano, AG and Stewart-Ibarra, A and Rojas-Rueda, D and Melo, O and Takahashi, B and Buss, D and Callaghan, M and Chesini, F and Flores, EC and Gil Posse, C and Gouveia, N and Jankin, S and Miranda-Chacon, Z and Mohajeri, N and Helo, J and Ortiz, L and Pantoja, C and Salas, MF and Santiago, R and Sergeeva, M and Souza de Camargo, T and Valdés-Velásquez, A and Walawender, M and Romanello, M}, title = {The 2022 South America report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: trust the science. Now that we know, we must act.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {20}, number = {}, pages = {100470}, pmid = {37125022}, issn = {2667-193X}, }
@article {pmid37121941, year = {2023}, author = {Law, AJ and Martinez-Botas, R and Blythe, P}, title = {Current vehicle emission standards will not mitigate climate change or improve air quality.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {7060}, pmid = {37121941}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The vehicle emissions testing programme was conducted by the UK Department of Transport in 2016 in response to emissions tampering exposed in the Volkswagen (VW) emissions scandal. The programme identified large emissions discrepancies between real-world and in-lab testing across a range of Euro 5 and Euro 6 diesel passenger vehicles. The large vehicle test fleet reflects the current challenges faced in controlling vehicle emissions. This paper presents the following findings: NOx emissions are altered due to exhaust gas recirculation mismanagement. A new Real-Life Emissions methodology is introduced to improve upon the current Real Driving Emissions standard. A large and concerning emissions divergence was discovered between the achieved NOx improvement and deterioration of CO2. The findings act as catalysts to improve vehicle emissions testing beyond standards established since the VW scandal, aiding in the development of better climate change mitigation strategies and bring tangible air quality improvements to the environment.}, }
@article {pmid37118599, year = {2022}, author = {Malik, A and Li, M and Lenzen, M and Fry, J and Liyanapathirana, N and Beyer, K and Boylan, S and Lee, A and Raubenheimer, D and Geschke, A and Prokopenko, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change and extreme weather on food supply chains cascade across sectors and regions in Australia.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {3}, number = {8}, pages = {631-643}, pmid = {37118599}, issn = {2662-1355}, abstract = {Disasters resulting from climate change and extreme weather events adversely impact crop and livestock production. While the direct impacts of these events on productivity are generally well known, the indirect supply-chain repercussions (spillovers) are still unclear. Here, applying an integrated modelling framework that considers economic and physical factors, we estimate spillovers in terms of social impacts (for example, loss of job and income) and health impacts (for example, nutrient availability and diet quality) resulting from disruptions in food supply chains, which cascade across regions and sectors. Our results demonstrate that post-disaster impacts are wide-ranging and diverse owing to the interconnected nature of supply chains. We find that fruit, vegetable and livestock sectors are the most affected, with effects flowing on to other non-food production sectors such as transport services. The ability to cope with disasters is determined by socio-demographic characteristics, with communities in rural areas being most affected.}, }
@article {pmid37118271, year = {2023}, author = {Pradhan, P}, title = {Saving food mitigates climate change.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {211-212}, pmid = {37118271}, issn = {2662-1355}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food ; Agriculture ; }, }
@article {pmid37118266, year = {2023}, author = {Jalil, AJ and Tasoff, J and Bustamante, AV}, title = {Low-cost climate-change informational intervention reduces meat consumption among students for 3 years.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {218-222}, pmid = {37118266}, issn = {2662-1355}, mesh = {Humans ; *Meat ; *Students ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Evidence on the impact of information campaigns on meat consumption patterns is limited. Here, using a dataset of more than 100,000 meal selections over 3 years, we examine the long-term effects of an informational intervention designed to increase awareness about the role of meat consumption in climate change. Students randomized to the treatment group reduced their meat consumption by 5.6 percentage points with no signs of reversal over 3 years. Calculations indicate a high return on investment even under conservative assumptions (~US$14 per metric ton CO2eq). Our findings show that informational interventions can be cost effective and generate long-lasting shifts towards more sustainable food options.}, }
@article {pmid37118203, year = {2022}, author = {Fujimori, S and Wu, W and Doelman, J and Frank, S and Hristov, J and Kyle, P and Sands, R and van Zeist, WJ and Havlik, P and Domínguez, IP and Sahoo, A and Stehfest, E and Tabeau, A and Valin, H and van Meijl, H and Hasegawa, T and Takahashi, K}, title = {Publisher Correction: Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {294}, doi = {10.1038/s43016-022-00495-x}, pmid = {37118203}, issn = {2662-1355}, }
@article {pmid37118200, year = {2022}, author = {Mazac, R and Meinilä, J and Korkalo, L and Järviö, N and Jalava, M and Tuomisto, HL}, title = {Incorporation of novel foods in European diets can reduce global warming potential, water use and land use by over 80.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {286-293}, pmid = {37118200}, issn = {2662-1355}, abstract = {Global food systems face the challenge of providing healthy and adequate nutrition through sustainable means, which is exacerbated by climate change and increasing protein demand by the world's growing population. Recent advances in novel food production technologies demonstrate potential solutions for improving the sustainability of food systems. Yet, diet-level comparisons are lacking and are needed to fully understand the environmental impacts of incorporating novel foods in diets. Here we estimate the possible reductions in global warming potential, water use and land use by replacing animal-source foods with novel or plant-based foods in European diets. Using a linear programming model, we optimized omnivore, vegan and novel food diets for minimum environmental impacts with nutrition and feasible consumption constraints. Replacing animal-source foods in current diets with novel foods reduced all environmental impacts by over 80% and still met nutrition and feasible consumption constraints.}, }
@article {pmid37118190, year = {2022}, author = {Guilpart, N and Iizumi, T and Makowski, D}, title = {Data-driven projections suggest large opportunities to improve Europe's soybean self-sufficiency under climate change.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {255-265}, pmid = {37118190}, issn = {2662-1355}, abstract = {The rapid expansion of soybean-growing areas across Europe raises questions about the suitability of agroclimatic conditions for soybean production. Here, using data-driven relationships between climate and soybean yield derived from machine-learning, we made yield projections under current and future climate with moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) to intense (RCP 8.5) warming, up to the 2050s and 2090s time horizons. The selected model showed high R[2] (>0.9) and low root-mean-squared error (0.35 t ha[-1]) between observed and predicted yields based on cross-validation. Our results suggest that a self-sufficiency level of 50% (100%) would be achievable in Europe under historical and future climate if 4-5% (9-11%) of the current European cropland were dedicated to soybean production. The findings could help farmers, extension services, policymakers and agribusiness to reorganize the production area distribution. The environmental benefits and side effects, and the impacts of soybean expansion on land-use change, would need further research.}, }
@article {pmid37118036, year = {2022}, author = {Eyshi Rezaei, E and Webber, H}, title = {Processing tomatoes under climate change.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {3}, number = {6}, pages = {404-405}, pmid = {37118036}, issn = {2662-1355}, }
@article {pmid37117948, year = {2022}, author = {Shi, Y and Zhang, Y and Wu, B and Wang, B and Li, L and Shi, H and Jin, N and Liu, L and Miao, R and Lu, X and Geng, Q and Lu, C and He, L and Fang, N and Yue, C and He, J and Feng, H and Pan, S and Tian, H and Yu, Q}, title = {Building social resilience in North Korea can mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {499-511}, pmid = {37117948}, issn = {2662-1355}, support = {1903722//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Adaptation based on social resilience is proposed as an effective measure to mitigate hunger and avoid food shocks caused by climate change. But these have not been investigated comprehensively in climate-sensitive regions. North Korea (NK) and its neighbours, South Korea and China, represent three economic levels that provide us with examples for examining climatic risk and quantifying the contribution of social resilience to rice production. Here our data-driven estimates show that climatic factors determined rice biomass changes in NK from 2000 to 2017, and climate extremes triggered reductions in production in 2000 and 2007. If no action is taken, NK will face a higher climatic risk (with continuous high-temperature heatwaves and precipitation extremes) by the 2080s under a high-emissions scenario, when rice biomass and production are expected to decrease by 20.2% and 14.4%, respectively, thereby potentially increasing hunger in NK. Social resilience (agricultural inputs and population development for South Korea; resource use for China) mitigated climate shocks in the past 20 years (2000-2019), even transforming adverse effects into benefits. However, this effect was not significant in NK. Moreover, the contribution of social resilience to food production in the undeveloped region (15.2%) was far below the contribution observed in the developed and developing regions (83.0% and 86.1%, respectively). These findings highlight the importance of social resilience to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on food security and human hunger and provide necessary quantitative information.}, }
@article {pmid37117886, year = {2022}, author = {Kath, J and Craparo, A and Fong, Y and Byrareddy, V and Davis, AP and King, R and Nguyen-Huy, T and van Asten, PJA and Marcussen, T and Mushtaq, S and Stone, R and Power, S}, title = {Vapour pressure deficit determines critical thresholds for global coffee production under climate change.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {3}, number = {10}, pages = {871-880}, pmid = {37117886}, issn = {2662-1355}, abstract = {Our understanding of the impact of climate change on global coffee production is largely based on studies focusing on temperature and precipitation, but other climate indicators could trigger critical threshold changes in productivity. Here, using generalized additive models and threshold regression, we investigate temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) effects on global Arabica coffee productivity. We show that VPD during fruit development is a key indicator of global coffee productivity, with yield declining rapidly above 0.82 kPa. The risk of exceeding this threshold rises sharply for most countries we assess, if global warming exceeds 2 °C. At 2.9 °C, countries making up 90% of global supply are more likely than not to exceed the VPD threshold. The inclusion of VPD and the identification of thresholds appear critical for understanding climate change impacts on coffee and for the design of adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid37117860, year = {2023}, author = {Perino, G and Schwickert, H}, title = {Animal welfare is a stronger determinant of public support for meat taxation than climate change mitigation in Germany.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {160-169}, pmid = {37117860}, issn = {2662-1355}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Meat ; Taxes ; Germany ; }, abstract = {A tax on meat could help address the climate impact and animal welfare issues associated with the production of meat. Through a referendum choice experiment with more than 2,800 German citizens, we elicited support for a tax on meat by varying the following tax attributes: level and differentiation thereof, justification and salience of behavioural effects. Only at the lowest tax level tested do all tax variants receive support from most voters. Support is generally stronger if the tax is justified by animal welfare rather than climate change mitigation. Differentiated taxes that link the tax rate to the harmfulness of the product do not receive higher support than a uniform tax; this indifference is not driven by a failure to anticipate the differential impacts on consumption. While the introduction of meat taxation remains politically challenging, our results underscore the need for policymakers to clearly communicate underlying reasons for the tax and its intended behavioural effect.}, }
@article {pmid37117849, year = {2023}, author = {Willer, DF and Aldridge, DC and Gough, C and Kincaid, K}, title = {Small-scale octopus fishery operations enable environmentally and socioeconomically sustainable sourcing of nutrients under climate change.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {179-189}, pmid = {37117849}, issn = {2662-1355}, mesh = {Animals ; *Fisheries ; *Octopodiformes ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Seafood ; Nutrients ; }, abstract = {Small-scale octopus fisheries represent an underexplored source of nutrients and socioeconomic benefits for populations in the tropics. Here we analyse data from global seafood databases and published literature, finding that tropical small-scale octopus fisheries produced 88,000 t of catch and processed octopus in 2017, with a landed value of US$ 2.3 billion, contributing towards copper, iron and selenium intakes, with over twice the vitamin B12 content of finfish. Catch methods, primarily consisting of small-scale lines and small-scale pots and traps, produced minimal bycatch, and the fast growth and adaptability of octopus may facilitate environmentally sustainable production under climatic change. Management approaches including periodic fishery closures, size restrictions, licences and knowledge transfer of fishing gears can enable greater blue food supply and economic value to be generated while improving environmental sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid37117545, year = {2023}, author = {Ren, C and Zhang, X and Reis, S and Wang, S and Jin, J and Xu, J and Gu, B}, title = {Climate change unequally affects nitrogen use and losses in global croplands.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {294-304}, pmid = {37117545}, issn = {2662-1355}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Nitrogen ; Agriculture/methods ; Global Warming ; Crops, Agricultural ; }, abstract = {Maintaining food production while reducing agricultural nitrogen pollution is a grand challenge under global climate change. Yet, the response of global agricultural nitrogen uses and losses to climate change on the temporal and spatial scales has not been fully characterized. Here, using historical data for 1961-2018 from over 150 countries, we show that global warming leads to small temporal but substantial spatial impacts on cropland nitrogen use and losses. Yield and nitrogen use efficiency increase in 29% and 56% of countries, respectively, whereas they reduce in the remaining countries compared with the situation without global warming in 2018. Precipitation and farm size changes would further intensify the spatial variations of nitrogen use and losses globally, but managing farm size could increase the global cropland nitrogen use efficiency to over 70% by 2100. Our results reveal the importance of reducing global inequalities of agricultural nitrogen use and losses to sustain global agriculture production and reduce agricultural pollution.}, }
@article {pmid37115466, year = {2023}, author = {Lykins, AD and Parsons, M and Craig, BM and Cosh, SM and Hine, DW and Murray, C}, title = {Australian Youth Mental Health and Climate Change Concern After the Black Summer Bushfires.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {3-8}, pmid = {37115466}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Humans ; Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Mental Health ; Seasons ; Young Adult ; Adult ; }, abstract = {Climate change and its effects present notable challenges for mental health, particularly for vulnerable populations, including young people. Immediately following the unprecedented Black Summer bushfire season of 2019/2020, 746 Australians (aged 16-25 years) completed measures of mental health and perceptions of climate change. Results indicated greater presentations of depression, anxiety, stress, adjustment disorder symptoms, substance abuse, and climate change distress and concern, as well as lower psychological resilience and perceived distance to climate change, in participants with direct exposure to these bushfires. Findings highlight significant vulnerabilities of concern for youth mental health as climate change advances.}, }
@article {pmid37115430, year = {2023}, author = {Bhat, IA and Fayaz, M and Roof-Ul-Qadir,  and Rafiq, S and Guleria, K and Qadir, J and Wani, TA and Kaloo, ZA}, title = {Predicting potential distribution and range dynamics of Aquilegia fragrans under climate change: insights from ensemble species distribution modelling.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {5}, pages = {623}, pmid = {37115430}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {MANF-2018-19-JAM-99722//UGC-DAE&#xa0;Consortium for Scientific Research, University Grants Commission/ ; }, mesh = {*Aquilegia ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the primary causes of species redistribution and biodiversity loss, especially for threatened and endemic important plant species. Therefore, it is vital to comprehend "how" and "where" priority medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) might be effectively used to address conservation-related issues under rapid climate change. In the present study, an ensemble modelling approach was used to investigate the present and future distribution patterns of Aquilegia fragrans Benth. under climate change in the entire spectrum of Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. The results of the current study revealed that, under current climatic conditions, the northwest states of India (Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and the northern part of Uttarakhand), the eastern and southern parts of Pakistan Himalaya have highly suitable climatic conditions for the growth of A. fragrans. The ensemble model exhibited high forecast accuracy, with temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality as the main climatic variables responsible for the distribution of the A. fragrans in the biodiversity hotspot. Furthermore, the study predicted that future climate change scenarios will diminish habitat suitability for the species by -46.9% under RCP4.5 2050 and -55.0% under RCP4.5 2070. Likewise, under RCP8.5, the habitat suitability will decrease by -51.7% in 2050 and -94.3% in 2070. The current study also revealed that the western Himalayan area will show the most habitat loss. Some currently unsuitable regions, such as the northern Himalayan regions of Pakistan, will become more suitable under climate change scenarios. Hopefully, the current approach may provide a robust technique and showcases a model with learnings for predicting cultivation hotspots and developing scientifically sound conservation plans for this endangered medicinal plant in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot.}, }
@article {pmid37115236, year = {2023}, author = {Koné, S and Galiegue, X}, title = {Potential Development of Biochar in Africa as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change Impact on Agriculture.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {72}, number = {6}, pages = {1189-1203}, pmid = {37115236}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {One of the most important obstacles to increasing agricultural production yields worldwide, especially in developing economies such as those in Africa is the continued degradation of soils due to climate change. In response to this threat, one of the strategies advocated is biochar technology, which is one of the emerging sustainable and climate-friendly soil amendments. This article reviews a brief description of biochar, the advantages and disadvantages of its use, and the prospects for developing its potential impact on agricultural productivity in African countries with a case study in Burkina Faso. Biochar is mainly useful for soil carbon sequestration, increasing and maintaining soil fertility, environmental management, and as a renewable energy source. However, it can have secondary effects including negative impacts on human health, pollution, and water quality. Furthermore, the positive results of biochar use in Africa suggest a prospect for ensuring the feasibility of biochar technology in policy decisions as a sustainable alternative to agricultural land management in the combat against climate change. As recommendations, a combination of improved seed varieties, and SWC (Soil and Water Conservation) techniques with the application of Biochar will be a perfect innovation for an intelligent adaptation practice to the destructive action of climate change in agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid37113982, year = {2023}, author = {He, L and Rosa, L}, title = {Solutions to agricultural green water scarcity under climate change.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {pgad117}, pmid = {37113982}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {Rain-fed agricultural systems, which solely depend on green water (i.e. soil moisture from rainfall), sustain ∼60% of global food production and are particularly vulnerable to vagaries in temperature and precipitation patterns, which are intensifying due to climate change. Here, using projections of crop water demand and green water availability under warming scenarios, we assess global agricultural green water scarcity-defined when the rainfall regime is unable to meet crop water requirements. With present-day climate conditions, food production for 890 million people is lost because of green water scarcity. Under 1.5°C and 3°C warming-the global warming projected from the current climate targets and business as usual policies-green water scarcity will affect global crop production for 1.23 and 1.45 billion people, respectively. If adaptation strategies were to be adopted to retain more green water in the soil and reduce evaporation, we find that food production loss from green water scarcity would decrease to 780 million people. Our results show that appropriate green water management strategies have the potential to adapt agriculture to green water scarcity and promote global food security.}, }
@article {pmid37112872, year = {2023}, author = {Navarro Mamani, DA and Ramos Huere, H and Vera Buendia, R and Rojas, M and Chunga, WA and Valdez Gutierrez, E and Vergara Abarca, W and Rivera Gerónimo, H and Altamiranda-Saavedra, M}, title = {Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru?.}, journal = {Viruses}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {37112872}, issn = {1999-4915}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; *Bluetongue virus ; Climate Change ; Peru/epidemiology ; Insect Vectors ; Ruminants ; *Ceratopogonidae ; }, abstract = {Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by Culicoides spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whether climate change would influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of BTV and Culicoides insignis in Peru. Here, we analyzed BTV (n = 145) and C. insignis (n = 22) occurrence records under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) with five primary general circulation models (GCMs) using the kuenm R package v.1.1.9. Then, we obtained binary presence-absence maps and represented the risk of transmission of BTV and niche overlapping. The niche model approach showed that north and east Peru presented suitability in the current climate scenario and they would have a decreased risk of BTV, whilst its vector would be stable and expand with high agreement for the five GCMs. In addition, its niche overlap showed that the two niches almost overlap at present and would completely overlap with one another in future climate scenarios. These findings might be used to determine the areas of highest priority for entomological and virological investigations and surveillance in order to control and prevent bluetongue infections in Peru.}, }
@article {pmid37110498, year = {2023}, author = {Gundogdu, K and Orus Iturriza, A and Orruño, M and Montánchez, I and Eguiraun, H and Martinez, I and Arana, I and Kaberdin, VR}, title = {Addressing the Joint Impact of Temperature and pH on Vibrio harveyi Adaptation in the Time of Climate Change.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {37110498}, issn = {2076-2607}, support = {IT1657-22//Basque Government/ ; PIBA_2021_0047//Basque Government/ ; }, abstract = {Global warming and acidification of the global ocean are two important manifestations of the ongoing climate change. To characterize their joint impact on Vibrio adaptation and fitness, we analyzed the temperature-dependent adaptation of Vibrio harveyi at different pHs (7.0, 7.5, 8.0, 8.3 and 8.5) that mimic the pH of the world ocean in the past, present and future. Comparison of V. harveyi growth at 20, 25 and 30 °C show that higher temperature per se facilitates the logarithmic growth of V. harveyi in nutrient-rich environments in a pH-dependent manner. Further survival tests carried out in artificial seawater for 35 days revealed that cell culturability declined significantly upon incubation at 25 °C and 30 °C but not at 20 °C. Moreover, although acidification displayed a negative impact on cell culturability at 25 °C, it appeared to play a minor role at 30 °C, suggesting that elevated temperature, rather than pH, was the key player in the observed reduction of cell culturability. In addition, analyses of the stressed cell morphology and size distribution by epifluorescent microscopy indicates that V. harveyi likely exploits different adaptation strategies (e.g., acquisition of coccoid-like morphology) whose roles might differ depending on the temperature-pH combination.}, }
@article {pmid37110472, year = {2023}, author = {Combe, M and Reverter, M and Caruso, D and Pepey, E and Gozlan, RE}, title = {Impact of Global Warming on the Severity of Viral Diseases: A Potentially Alarming Threat to Sustainable Aquaculture Worldwide.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {37110472}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {With an ever-increasing human population, food security remains a central issue for the coming years. The magnitude of the environmental impacts of food production has motivated the assessment of the environmental and health benefits of shifting diets, from meat to fish and seafood. One of the main concerns for the sustainable development of aquaculture is the emergence and spread of infectious animal diseases in a warming climate. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the influence of global warming on mortality due to viral infections in farmed aquatic animals. We found a positive trend between increasing temperature and increasing viral virulence, with an increase in water temperature of 1 °C resulting in an increase in mortality of 1.47-8.33% in OsHV-1 infected oysters, 2.55-6.98% in carps infected with CyHV-3 and 2.18-5.37% in fishes infected with NVVs. We suggest that global warming is going to pose a risk of viral disease outbreaks in aquaculture and could compromise global food security.}, }
@article {pmid37110364, year = {2023}, author = {Paterson, RRM}, title = {Special Issue: Coffee, Fungi, Mycotoxins, and Climate Change.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {37110364}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {Coffee is very lucrative and enjoyed by many [...].}, }
@article {pmid37107845, year = {2023}, author = {Woodland, L and Ratwatte, P and Phalkey, R and Gillingham, EL}, title = {Investigating the Health Impacts of Climate Change among People with Pre-Existing Mental Health Problems: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {37107845}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {NIHR200909/DH_/Department of Health/United Kingdom ; NIHR200890/DH_/Department of Health/United Kingdom ; NIHR200877/DH_/Department of Health/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; Floods ; Droughts ; Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest threat to global public health, although the impacts on mental health are relatively understudied. Furthermore, there is a lack of consensus about the effects of climate change on individuals with pre-existing mental health problems. This review aimed to identify the health impacts of climate change on people with pre-existing mental health problems. The search was conducted across three databases; studies were included if they involved participants who had mental health problem(s) before a climate-driven event and reported on health outcomes post-event. A total of thirty-one studies met the full inclusion criteria. The study characteristics included 6 climate-driven events: heat events, floods, wildfires, wildfire and flood, hurricanes, and droughts, and 16 categories of pre-existing mental health problems, with depression, and non-specified mental health problems being the most common. The majority of the studies (90%, n = 28) suggest an association between the presence of pre-existing mental health problems and the likelihood of adverse health impacts (e.g., increased mortality risk, new symptom presentation, and an exacerbation of symptoms). To mitigate the exacerbation of health inequalities, people with pre-existing mental health problems should be included in adaption guidance and/or plans that mitigate the health impacts of climate change, future policy, reports, and frameworks.}, }
@article {pmid37106814, year = {2023}, author = {Harvey, JA and Dong, Y}, title = {Climate Change, Extreme Temperatures and Sex-Related Responses in Spiders.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {37106814}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Climatic extremes, such as heat waves, are increasing in frequency, intensity and duration under anthropogenic climate change. These extreme events pose a great threat to many organisms, and especially ectotherms, which are susceptible to high temperatures. In nature, many ectotherms, such as insects, may seek cooler microclimates and 'ride out´ extreme temperatures, especially when these are transient and unpredictable. However, some ectotherms, such as web-building spiders, may be more prone to heat-related mortality than more motile organisms. Adult females in many spider families are sedentary and build webs in micro-habitats where they spend their entire lives. Under extreme heat, they may be limited in their ability to move vertically or horizontally to find cooler microhabitats. Males, on the other hand, are often nomadic, have broader spatial distributions, and thus might be better able to escape exposure to heat. However, life-history traits in spiders such as the relative body size of males and females and spatial ecology also vary across different taxonomic groups based on their phylogeny. This may make different species or families more or less susceptible to heat waves and exposure to very high temperatures. Selection to extreme temperatures may drive adaptive responses in female physiology, morphology or web site selection in species that build small or exposed webs. Male spiders may be better able to avoid heat-related stress than females by seeking refuge under objects such as bark or rocks with cooler microclimates. Here, we discuss these aspects in detail and propose research focusing on male and female spider behavior and reproduction across different taxa exposed to temperature extremes.}, }
@article {pmid37106810, year = {2023}, author = {Haq, SM and Waheed, M and Ahmad, R and Bussmann, RW and Arshad, F and Khan, AM and Casini, R and Alataway, A and Dewidar, AZ and Elansary, HO}, title = {Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral).}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {37106810}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {This research was funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research, King Saud University through the Vice Deanship of Scientific Research Chairs; Research Chair of Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz International Prize for Water.//King Saud University/ ; }, abstract = {The distribution of large ungulates is more often negatively impacted by the changing climate, especially global warming and species with limited distributional zones. While developing conservation action plans for the threatened species such as the Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus goral Hardwicke 1825; a mountain goat that mostly inhabits rocky cliffs), it is imperative to comprehend how future distributions might vary based on predicted climate change. In this work, MaxEnt modeling was employed to assess the habitat suitability of the target species under varying climate scenarios. Such studies have provided highly useful information but to date no such research work has been conducted that considers this endemic animal species of the Himalayas. A total of 81 species presence points, 19 bioclimatic and 3 topographic variables were employed in the species distribution modeling (SDM), and MaxEnt calibration and optimization were performed to select the best candidate model. For predicted climate scenarios, the future data is drawn from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 of the 2050s and 2070s. Out of total 20 variables, annual precipitation, elevation, precipitation of driest month, slope aspect, minimum temperature of coldest month, slope, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature annual range (in order) were detected as the most influential drivers. A high accuracy value (AUC-ROC > 0.9) was observed for all the predicted scenarios. The habitat suitability of the targeted species might expand (about 3.7 to 13%) under all the future climate change scenarios. The same is evident according to local residents as species which are locally considered extinct in most of the area, might be shifting northwards along the elevation gradient away from human settlements. This study recommends additional research is conducted to prevent potential population collapses, and to identify other possible causes of local extinction events. Our findings will aid in formulating conservation plans for the Himalayan goral in a changing climate and serve as a basis for future monitoring of the species.}, }
@article {pmid37106760, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, W and Miao, K and Guo, K and Qian, W and Sun, W and Wang, H and Chang, Q and Hu, C}, title = {Potential Geographic Range of the Endangered Reed Parrotbill Paradoxornis heudei under Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {37106760}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {20KJD180004//Natural Science Research of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China/ ; }, abstract = {The phenomenon of global climate change can impact the geographic range and biodiversity, thereby heightening the vulnerability of rare species to extinction. The reed parrotbill (Paradoxornis heudei David, 1872) is endemic to central and eastern China, it is mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain and the Northeast Plain. In this study, eight of ten algorithms of the species distribution model (SDM) were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. heudei under current and future climate scenarios and to analyze the possible related climate factors. After checking the collected data, 97 occurrence records of P. heudei were used. The relative contribution rate shows that among the selected climatic variables, temperature annual range (bio7), annual precipitation (bio12), and isothermality (bio3) were the principal climatic factors to limit the habitat suitability of P. heudei. The suitable habitat for P. heudei is primarily concentrated in the central-eastern and northeast plains of China, particularly in the eastern coastal region, spanning a mere area of 57,841 km[2]. The habitat suitability of P. heudei under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios was predicted to be different under future climatic conditions, but all of them had a larger range than the current one. The species distribution range could expand by more than 100% on average compared with the current range under the four scenarios in 2050, while it could contract by approximately 30% on average relative to the 2050 range in 2070 under different climate change scenarios. In the future, northeastern China may serve as a potential suitable habitat for P. heudei. The changes in the spatial and temporal distributions of P. heudei's range are of utmost importance in identifying high-priority conservation regions and devising effective management strategies for its preservation.}, }
@article {pmid37106744, year = {2023}, author = {Salinas-Ramos, VB and Tomassini, A and Ferrari, F and Boga, R and Russo, D}, title = {Admittance to Wildlife Rehabilitation Centres Points to Adverse Effects of Climate Change on Insectivorous Bats.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {37106744}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {N.A.//Secretar&#xed;a de Educaci&#xf3;n, Ciencia, Tecnolog&#xed;a e Innovaci&#xf3;n de la Ciudad de M&#xe9;xico/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is exerting a broad range of (mostly adverse) effects on biodiversity, and more are expected under future scenarios. Impacts on species that deliver key ecosystem services, such as bats, are especially concerning, so their better understanding is key to preventing or mitigating them. Due to their physiological requirements, bats are especially sensitive to environmental temperatures and water availability, and heatwave-related mortality has been reported for flying foxes and, more anecdotally, other bat species. For temperate regions, to date, no study has highlighted an association between temperature extremes and bat mortality, mostly due to the difficulty of relying on data series covering long timespans. Heatwaves may affect bats, causing thermal shock and acute dehydration so bats can fall from the roost and, in some cases, are rescued by the public and brought to wildlife rehabilitation centres (WRCs). In our work, we considered a dataset spanning over 20 years of bat admittance to Italian WRCs, covering 5842 bats, and hypothesised that in summer, the number of admitted bats will increase in hotter weeks and young bats will be more exposed to heat stress than adults. We confirmed our first hypothesis for both the overall sample and three out of five synurbic species for which data were available, whereas hot weeks affected both young and adults, pointing to an especially concerning effect on bat survival and reproduction. Although our study is correlative, the existence of a causative relationship between high temperatures and grounded bats is still the best explanation for the recorded patterns. We urge such a relationship to be explored via extensive monitoring of urban bat roosts to inform appropriate management of bat communities in such environments and preserve the precious ecosystem services such mammals provide, especially insectivory services.}, }
@article {pmid37106156, year = {2023}, author = {Germain, RR and Feng, S and Chen, G and Graves, GR and Tobias, JA and Rahbek, C and Lei, F and Fjeldså, J and Hosner, PA and Gilbert, MTP and Zhang, G and Nogués-Bravo, D}, title = {Species-specific traits mediate avian demographic responses under past climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {6}, pages = {862-872}, pmid = {37106156}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {32170626//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; 31901214//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; CF16-0663//Carlsbergfondet (Carlsberg Foundation)/ ; 25900//Villum Fonden (Villum Foundation)/ ; 8021-00282B//Det Frie Forskningsr&#xe5;d (Danish Council for Independent Research)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; Cold Temperature ; Birds/physiology ; Demography ; }, abstract = {Anticipating species' responses to environmental change is a pressing mission in biodiversity conservation. Despite decades of research investigating how climate change may affect population sizes, historical context is lacking, and the traits that mediate demographic sensitivity to changing climate remain elusive. We use whole-genome sequence data to reconstruct the demographic histories of 263 bird species over the past million years and identify networks of interacting morphological and life history traits associated with changes in effective population size (Ne) in response to climate warming and cooling. Our results identify direct and indirect effects of key traits representing dispersal, reproduction and survival on long-term demographic responses to climate change, thereby highlighting traits most likely to influence population responses to ongoing climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid37105978, year = {2023}, author = {Raff, JL and Goodbred, SL and Pickering, JL and Sincavage, RS and Ayers, JC and Hossain, MS and Wilson, CA and Paola, C and Steckler, MS and Mondal, DR and Grimaud, JL and Grall, CJ and Rogers, KG and Ahmed, KM and Akhter, SH and Carlson, BN and Chamberlain, EL and Dejter, M and Gilligan, JM and Hale, RP and Khan, MR and Muktadir, MG and Rahman, MM and Williams, LA}, title = {Sediment delivery to sustain the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta under climate change and anthropogenic impacts.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {2429}, pmid = {37105978}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {1342946//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1600319//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 0968354//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1600319//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1600319//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 0968354//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 0968354//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; 1600319//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers' ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to previously modeled results and suggest that increased sediment delivery may be capable of offsetting accelerated sea-level rise. This prospect for a naturally sustained Ganges-Brahmaputra delta presents possibilities beyond the dystopian future often posed for this system, but the implementation of currently proposed dams and diversions would preclude such opportunities.}, }
@article {pmid37105834, year = {2023}, author = {Sampath, V and Aguilera, J and Prunicki, M and Nadeau, KC}, title = {Mechanisms of climate change and related air pollution on the immune system leading to allergic disease and asthma.}, journal = {Seminars in immunology}, volume = {67}, number = {}, pages = {101765}, pmid = {37105834}, issn = {1096-3618}, support = {P01 HL152953/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; R01 ES032253/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 HL081521/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Air Pollution ; *Asthma/immunology ; *Hypersensitivity/immunology ; Immune System ; Disasters ; Humans ; Animals ; }, abstract = {Climate change is considered the greatest threat to global health. Greenhouse gases as well as global surface temperatures have increased causing more frequent and intense heat and cold waves, wildfires, floods, drought, altered rainfall patterns, hurricanes, thunderstorms, air pollution, and windstorms. These extreme weather events have direct and indirect effects on the immune system, leading to allergic disease due to exposure to pollen, molds, and other environmental pollutants. In this review, we will focus on immune mechanisms associated with allergy and asthma-related health risks induced by climate change events. We will review current understanding of the molecular and cellular mechanisms by which the changing environment mediates these effects.}, }
@article {pmid37105203, year = {2023}, author = {Gordon-Strachan, G and Shiu, RN and Smith, J and Harrison, A and Walker, S}, title = {Climate change in small island developing states: caring for youth's mental health.}, journal = {The Lancet. Child &amp; adolescent health}, volume = {7}, number = {6}, pages = {373-374}, doi = {10.1016/S2352-4642(23)00081-0}, pmid = {37105203}, issn = {2352-4650}, mesh = {Humans ; Adolescent ; *Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; Parents/psychology ; Parent-Child Relations ; }, }
@article {pmid37104227, year = {2023}, author = {Chatterjee, S and More, M}, title = {Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Bloom Toxin Microcystin and Increased Vibrio Occurrence as Climate-Change-Induced Biological Co-Stressors: Exposure and Disease Outcomes via Their Interaction with Gut-Liver-Brain Axis.}, journal = {Toxins}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {37104227}, issn = {2072-6651}, support = {P01 ES028942/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; Mice ; Microcystins/toxicity ; Harmful Algal Bloom ; *Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 ; Cyanobacteria Toxins ; *Cyanobacteria ; Climate Change ; Liver ; Brain ; }, abstract = {The effects of global warming are not limited to rising global temperatures and have set in motion a complex chain of events contributing to climate change. A consequence of global warming and the resultant climate change is the rise in cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyano-HABs) across the world, which pose a threat to public health, aquatic biodiversity, and the livelihood of communities that depend on these water systems, such as farmers and fishers. An increase in cyano-HABs and their intensity is associated with an increase in the leakage of cyanotoxins. Microcystins (MCs) are hepatotoxins produced by some cyanobacterial species, and their organ toxicology has been extensively studied. Recent mouse studies suggest that MCs can induce gut resistome changes. Opportunistic pathogens such as Vibrios are abundantly found in the same habitat as phytoplankton, such as cyanobacteria. Further, MCs can complicate human disorders such as heat stress, cardiovascular diseases, type II diabetes, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Firstly, this review describes how climate change mediates the rise in cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in freshwater, causing increased levels of MCs. In the later sections, we aim to untangle the ways in which MCs can impact various public health concerns, either solely or in combination with other factors resulting from climate change. In conclusion, this review helps researchers understand the multiple challenges brought forth by a changing climate and the complex relationships between microcystin, Vibrios, and various environmental factors and their effect on human health and disease.}, }
@article {pmid37104117, year = {2023}, author = {Schulte, PA and Jacklitsch, BL and Bhattacharya, A and Chun, H and Edwards, N and Elliott, KC and Flynn, MA and Guerin, R and Hodson, L and Lincoln, JM and MacMahon, KL and Pendergrass, S and Siven, J and Vietas, J}, title = {Updated assessment of occupational safety and health hazards of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental hygiene}, volume = {20}, number = {5-6}, pages = {183-206}, pmid = {37104117}, issn = {1545-9632}, support = {CC999999/ImCDC/Intramural CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Occupational Health ; Climate Change ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; *Occupational Exposure/analysis ; }, abstract = {Workers, particularly outdoor workers, are among the populations most disproportionately affected by climate-related hazards. However, scientific research and control actions to comprehensively address these hazards are notably absent. To assess this absence, a seven-category framework was developed in 2009 to characterize the scientific literature published from 1988-2008. Using this framework, a second assessment examined the literature published through 2014, and the current one examines literature from 2014-2021. The objectives were to present literature that updates the framework and related topics and increases awareness of the role of climate change in occupational safety and health. In general, there is substantial literature on worker hazards related to ambient temperatures, biological hazards, and extreme weather but less on air pollution, ultraviolet radiation, industrial transitions, and the built environment. There is growing literature on mental health and health equity issues related to climate change, but much more research is needed. The socioeconomic impacts of climate change also require more research. This study illustrates that workers are experiencing increased morbidity and mortality related to climate change. In all areas of climate-related worker risk, including geoengineering, research is needed on the causality and prevalence of hazards, along with surveillance to identify, and interventions for hazard prevention and control.}, }
@article {pmid37103697, year = {2023}, author = {Dilanchiev, A and Nuta, F and Khan, I and Khan, H}, title = {Urbanization, renewable energy production, and carbon dioxide emission in BSEC member states: implications for climate change mitigation and energy markets.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {25}, pages = {67338-67350}, pmid = {37103697}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Urbanization ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; Quality of Life ; Renewable Energy ; Economic Development ; }, abstract = {As the world's population grows, the energy demand continues to rise due to advancements in technology and the impact of globalization. The finite nature of traditional energy sources has accelerated the shift toward renewable energy, particularly in developing countries where environmental degradation and declining quality of life are significant concerns. This study delves into the interplay between urbanization, carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, and renewable energy production in Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation member states, providing new insights into the energy market. By using annual data from 1995 to 2020 and advanced panel cointegration tests, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of renewable energy for developing countries. The findings show a substantial and long-term relationship between urbanization, emissions, growth, and renewable energy production. These findings have important implications for policymakers and underscore the critical role of renewable energy in mitigating climate change in developing countries.}, }
@article {pmid37103163, year = {2023}, author = {Fekete, J and De Knijf, G and Dinis, M and Padisák, J and Boda, P and Mizsei, E and Várbíró, G}, title = {Winners and Losers: Cordulegaster Species under the Pressure of Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {37103163}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {(1) Bioclimatic factors have a proven effect on species distributions in terrestrial, marine, or freshwater ecosystems. Because of anthropogenic effects, the changes in these variables are accelerated; thus, the knowledge of the impact has great importance from a conservation point of view. Two endemic dragonflies, the Balkan Goldenring (Cordulegaster heros) and the Two-Toothed Goldenring (C. bidentata), confined to the hilly and mountainous regions in Europe, are classified as "Near Threatened" according to the IUCN Red List. (2) Modeling the potential occurrence of both species under present and future climatic conditions provides a more accurate picture of the most suitable areas. The models were used to predict the responses of both species to 6 different climate scenarios for the year 2070. (3) We revealed which climatic and abiotic variables affect them the most and which areas are the most suitable for the species. We calculated how future climatic changes would affect the range of suitable areas for the two species. (4) According to our results, the suitable area for Cordulegaster bidentata and C. heros are strongly influenced by bioclimatic variables and showed an upward shift toward high elevations. The models predict a loss of suitable area in the case of C. bidentata and a large gain in the case of C. heros.}, }
@article {pmid37103153, year = {2023}, author = {Ghafouri Moghaddam, M and Butcher, BA}, title = {Microplitis manilae Ashmead (Hymenoptera: Braconidae): Biology, Systematics, and Response to Climate Change through Ecological Niche Modelling.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {37103153}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {The parasitoid wasp Microplitis manilae Ashmead (Braconidae: Microgastrinae) is an important natural enemy of caterpillars and of a range of noctuids, including pest species of armyworms (Spodoptera spp.). Here, the wasp is redescribed and, for the first time, illustrated based on the holotype. An updated list of all the Microplitis species attacking the noctuid Spodoptera spp. along with a discussion on host-parasitoid-food plant associations is offered. Based on information about the actual distribution of M. manilae and a set of bioclimatic variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche model and the quantum geographic information system (QGIS) were explored to predict the potential distribution of this wasp in a global context. The worldwide geographical distribution of potential climatic suitability of M. manilae at present and in three different periods in the future was simulated. The relative percent contribution score of environmental factors and the Jackknife test were combined to identify dominant bioclimatic variables and their appropriate values influencing the potential distribution of M. manilae. The results showed that under current climate conditions, the prediction of the maximum entropy model highly matches the actual distribution, and that the obtained value of simulation accuracy was very high. Likewise, the distribution of M. manilae was mainly affected by five bioclimatic variables, listed in order of importance as follows: precipitation during the wettest month (BIO13), annual precipitation (BIO12), annual mean temperature (BIO1), temperature seasonality (BIO4), and mean temperature during the warmest quarter (BIO10). In a global context, the suitable habitat of M. manilae would be mainly in tropical and subtropical countries. Furthermore, under the four greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) in the future period of the 2070s, the areas with high, medium, and low suitability showed varying degrees of change from current conditions and are expected to expand in the future. This work provides theoretical backing for studies associated with the safeguarding of the environment and pest management.}, }
@article {pmid37103001, year = {2023}, author = {Braun, DM and Washburn, JD and Wood, JD}, title = {Enhancing the resilience of plant systems to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {74}, number = {9}, pages = {2787-2789}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erad090}, pmid = {37103001}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid37101727, year = {2022}, author = {Sarkar, S and Mukherjee, A and Senapati, B and Duttagupta, S}, title = {Predicting Potential Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Nitrate Pollution and Risk in an Intensely Cultivated Area of South Asia.}, journal = {ACS environmental Au}, volume = {2}, number = {6}, pages = {556-576}, pmid = {37101727}, issn = {2694-2518}, abstract = {One of the potential impacts of climate change is enhanced groundwater contamination by geogenic and anthropogenic contaminants. Such impacts should be most evident in areas with high land-use change footprint. Here, we provide a novel documentation of the impact on groundwater nitrate (GWNO3) pollution with and without climate change in one of the most intensely groundwater-irrigated areas of South Asia (northwest India) as a consequence of changes in land use and agricultural practices at present and predicted future times. We assessed the probabilistic risk of GWNO3 pollution considering climate changes under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for 2030 and 2040, using a machine learning (Random Forest) framework. We also evaluated variations in GWNO3 distribution against a no climate change (NCC) scenario considering 2020 status quo climate conditions. The climate change projections showed that the annual temperatures would rise under both RCPs. The precipitation is predicted to rise by 5% under RCP 8.5 by 2040, while it would decline under RCP 4.5. The predicted scenarios indicate that the areas at high risk of GWNO3 pollution will increase to 49 and 50% in 2030 and 66 and 65% in 2040 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. These predictions are higher compared to the NCC condition (43% in 2030 and 60% in 2040). However, the areas at high risk can decrease significantly by 2040 with restricted fertilizer usage, especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The risk maps identified the central, south, and southeastern parts of the study area to be at persistent high risk of GWNO3 pollution. The outcomes show that the climate factors may impose a significant influence on the GWNO3 pollution, and if fertilizer inputs and land uses are not managed properly, future climate change scenarios can critically impact the groundwater quality in highly agrarian areas.}, }
@article {pmid37100884, year = {2023}, author = {Kolanowska, M}, title = {Loss of fungal symbionts and changes in pollinator availability caused by climate change will affect the distribution and survival chances of myco-heterotrophic orchid species.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {6848}, pmid = {37100884}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Bees ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Insecta ; Pollination ; *Orchidaceae/microbiology ; }, abstract = {The first comprehensive species distribution models for orchid, its fungal symbionts and pollinator are presented. To evaluate impact of global warming on these organisms three different projections and four various climate change scenarios were analysed. The niche modelling was based on presence-only records of Limodorum abortivum, two species of Russula and three insects pollinating orchid (Anthophora affinis, Bombus terrestris, Rhodanthidium septemdentatum). Two sets of orchid predictions were examined-the first one included only climatic data and the second one was based on climate data and data on future distribution of orchid fungal symbionts. Overall, a poleward range shift is predicted to occur as a result of climate change and apparently global warming will be favorable for L. abortivum and its potential geographical range will expand. However, due to the negative effect of global warming on fungal symbionts of L. abortivum, the actual extension of the suitable niches of the orchid will be much limited. Considering future possibility of cross-pollination, the availability of A. affinis for L. abortivum will decrease and this bee will be available in the worst case scenarios only for 21% of orchid populations. On the other hand, the overlap of orchid and the buff-tailed bumblebee will increase and as much as 86.5% of plant populations will be located within B. terrestris potential range. Also the availability of R. septemdentatum will be higher than currently observed in almost all analysed climate change projections. This study showed the importance of inclusion of ecological factors in species distribution models as the climate data itself are not enough to estimate the future distribution of plant species. Moreover, the availability of pollen vectors which is crucial for long-term survival of orchid populations should be analysed in context of climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid37100788, year = {2023}, author = {Srinivasa Rao, M and Rama Rao, CA and Raju, BMK and Subba Rao, AVM and Gayatri, DLA and Islam, A and Prasad, TV and Navya, M and Srinivas, K and Pratibha, G and Srinivas, I and Prabhakar, M and Yadav, SK and Bhaskar, S and Singh, VK and Chaudhari, SK}, title = {Pest scenario of Helicoverpa armigera (Hub.) on pigeonpea during future climate change periods under RCP based projections in India.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {6788}, pmid = {37100788}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Moths ; Global Warming ; Temperature ; India ; }, abstract = {Gram pod borer, Helicoverpa armigera (Hub.) is the major insect pest of pigeonpea and prediction of number of generations (no. of gen.) and generation time (gen. time) using growing degree days (GDD) approach during three future climate change periods viz., Near (NP), Distant (DP) and Far Distant (FDP) periods at eleven major pigeonpea growing locations of India was attempted. Multi-model ensemble of Maximum (Tmax) and Minimum (Tmin) temperature data of four Representative Concentration Pathways viz., RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 of Coupled Model Inter comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models was adopted here. The increase in projected Tmax and Tmin are significant during 3 climate change periods (CCPs) viz., the NP, DP and FDP over base line (BL) period under four RCP scenarios at all locations and would be higher (4.7-5.1 °C) in RCP 8.5 and in FDP. More number of annual (10-17) and seasonal (5-8) gens. are expected to occur with greater percent increase in FDP (8 to 38%) over base line followed by DP (7 to 22%) and NP (5to 10%) periods with shortened annual gen. time (4 to 27%) across 4 RCPs. The reduction of crop duration was substantial in short, medium and long duration pigeonpeas at all locations across 4 RCPs and 3 CCPs. The seasonal no.of gen. is expected to increase (5 to 35%) with shortened gen. time (4 to 26%) even with reduced crop duration across DP and FDP climate periods of 6.0 and 8.5 RCPs in LD pigeonpea. More no. of gen. of H. armigera with reduced gen. time are expected to occur at Ludhiana, Coimbatore, Mohanpur, Warangal and Akola locations over BL period in 4 RCPs when normal duration of pigeonpeas is considered. Geographical location (66 to 72%), climate period (11 to 19%), RCPs (5-7%) and their interaction (0.04-1%) is vital and together explained more than 90% of the total variation in future pest scenario. The findings indicate that the incidence of H. armigera would be higher on pigeonpea during ensuing CCPs in India under global warming context.}, }
@article {pmid37100483, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Effects of climate change on health: A call for nursing research.}, journal = {Nursing outlook}, volume = {71}, number = {2}, pages = {101972}, doi = {10.1016/j.outlook.2023.101972}, pmid = {37100483}, issn = {1528-3968}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Nursing Research ; }, }
@article {pmid37100460, year = {2023}, author = {Atkinson, N and Ferguson, M and Russell, C and Cullerton, K}, title = {Are the impacts of food systems on climate change being reported by the media? An Australian media analysis.}, journal = {Public health nutrition}, volume = {26}, number = {8}, pages = {1706-1714}, pmid = {37100460}, issn = {1475-2727}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Australia ; *Public Health ; Communication ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Food systems are a major contributor to climate change, producing one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions. However, public knowledge of food systems' contributions to climate change is low. One reason for low public awareness may be limited media coverage of the issue. To investigate this, we conducted a media analysis examining coverage of food systems and their contribution to climate change in Australian newspapers.<br><br>DESIGN: We analysed climate change articles from twelve Australian newspapers between 2011 and 2021, sourced from Factiva. We explored the volume and frequency of climate change articles that mentioned food systems and their contributions to climate change, as well as the level of focus on food systems.<br><br>SETTING: Australia.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: N/A.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 2892 articles included, only 5 % mentioned the contributions of food systems to climate change, with the majority highlighting food production as the main contributor, followed by food consumption. Conversely, 8 % mentioned the impact of climate change on food systems.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Though newspaper coverage of food systems' effects on climate change is increasing, coverage of the issue remains limited. As newspapers play a key role in increasing public and political awareness of matters, the findings provide valuable insights for advocates wishing to increase engagement on the issue. Increased media coverage may raise public awareness and encourage action by policymakers. Collaboration between public health and environmental stakeholders to increase public knowledge of the relationship between food systems and climate change is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid37100376, year = {2023}, author = {Laux, K and Teixeira, MM and Barker, B}, title = {Love in the time of climate change: A review of sexual reproduction in the order Onygenales.}, journal = {Fungal genetics and biology : FG &amp; B}, volume = {167}, number = {}, pages = {103797}, doi = {10.1016/j.fgb.2023.103797}, pmid = {37100376}, issn = {1096-0937}, mesh = {*Love ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Temperature ; *Onygenales/genetics ; Fungi ; Reproduction/genetics ; }, abstract = {Life-threatening infections caused by fungi in the order Onygenales have been rising over the last few decades. Increasing global temperature due to anthropogenic climate change is one potential abiotic selection pressure that may explain the increase in infections. The generation of genetically novel offspring with novel phenotypes through the process of sexual recombination could allow fungi to adapt to changing climate conditions. The basic structures associated with sexual reproduction have been identified in Histoplasma, Blastomyces, Malbranchea, and Brunneospora. However, for Coccidioides and Paracoccidioides, the actual structural identification of these processes has yet to be identified despite having genetic evidence that suggests sexual recombination is occurring in these organisms. This review highlights the importance of assessing sexual recombination in the order Onygenales as a means of understanding the mechanisms these organisms might employ to enhance fitness in the face of a changing climate and provides details regarding the known reproductive mechanisms in the Onygenales.}, }
@article {pmid37100131, year = {2023}, author = {da Silva, JP and Sousa, R and Gonçalves, DV and Miranda, R and Reis, J and Teixeira, A and Varandas, S and Lopes-Lima, M and Filipe, AF}, title = {Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: Predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {883}, number = {}, pages = {163689}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163689}, pmid = {37100131}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; Rivers ; Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Fishes ; Mediterranean Region ; *Bivalvia ; *Unio ; }, abstract = {Climate change is becoming the leading driver of biodiversity loss. The Mediterranean region, particularly southwestern Europe, is already confronting the consequences of ongoing global warming. Unprecedented biodiversity declines have been recorded, particularly within freshwater ecosystems. Freshwater mussels contribute to essential ecosystem services but are among the most threatened faunal groups on Earth. Their poor conservation status is related to the dependence on fish hosts to complete the life cycle, which also makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict species distributions, but often disregard the potential effect of biotic interactions. This study investigated the potential impact of future climate on the distribution of freshwater mussel species while considering their obligatory interaction with fish hosts. Specifically, ensemble models were used to forecast the current and future distribution of six mussel species in the Iberian Peninsula, including environmental conditions and the distribution of fish hosts as predictors. We found that climate change is expected to severely impact the future distribution of Iberian mussels. Species with narrow ranges, namely Margaritifera margaritifera and Unio tumidiformis, were predicted to have their suitable habitats nearly lost and could potentially be facing regional and global extinctions, respectively. Anodonta anatina, Potomida littoralis, and particularly Unio delphinus and Unio mancus, are expected to suffer distributional losses but may gain new suitable habitats. A shift in their distribution to new suitable areas is only possible if fish hosts are able to disperse while carrying larvae. We also found that including the distribution of fish hosts in the mussels' models avoided the underprediction of habitat loss under climate change. This study warns of the imminent loss of mussel species and populations and the urgent need of management actions to reverse current trends and mitigate irreversible damage to species and ecosystems in Mediterranean regions.}, }
@article {pmid37098525, year = {2023}, author = {Smith, DM and Sales, J and Williams, A and Munro, S}, title = {Pregnancy intentions of young women in Canada in the era of climate change: a qualitative auto-photography study.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {766}, pmid = {37098525}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Child ; Infant, Newborn ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Female ; Humans ; Adult ; *Intention ; *Climate Change ; Parturition ; British Columbia ; Qualitative Research ; Photography ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses a global health risk through consequences such as sea level rise, wildfires, and increased air pollution. Children born today and in the future may be disproportionately affected by climate change. As a result, many young adults are rethinking having children. The impacts of the climate crisis on the decision-making of parents is an understudied area of research. This study aims to be one of the first to explore how climate change impacts the pregnancy intentions of young women in Canada and their perspectives towards childbearing.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted auto-photography and qualitative interviews. Participants were recruited using social media, and were aged 18-25, nulliparous, assigned female at birth, and were either current or previous residents of British Columbia, Canada. We asked participants to take photos that responded to the question, "Show us how climate change impacts your decision to have a family," then complete a virtual, one-on-one interview during which photo-elicitation was employed to guide conversation about participants' decision-making related to childbearing and climate change. We subjected all transcribed interviews to qualitative thematic analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: We conducted in-depth interviews with seven participants who discussed a total of 33 photographs. Analysis of participants' interviews and photographs identified themes of eco-anxiety, hesitancy towards having children, sense of loss, and a desire for systemic change. Participants experienced anxiety, grief, and loss when faced with thoughts of change associated with their environments. Climate change impacted all but two participants' childbearing decision making, which was found to be interrelated with social-environmental factors, such as cost of living.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We aimed to identify the ways in which climate change may impact youth decisions to have a family. Further research on this topic is needed to understand the prevalence of this phenomenon, and to build such considerations into climate action policy and family planning tools used among young people.}, }
@article {pmid37098394, year = {2023}, author = {Lovarelli, D and Leso, L and Bonfanti, M and Porto, SMC and Barbari, M and Guarino, M}, title = {Climate change and socio-economic assessment of PLF in dairy farms: Three case studies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {882}, number = {}, pages = {163639}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163639}, pmid = {37098394}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Cattle ; Animals ; Farms ; *Livestock ; *Climate Change ; Dairying/methods ; Agriculture ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Precision Livestock Farming (PLF) techniques include sensors and tools to install on livestock farms and/or animals to monitor them and support the decision making process of farmers, finally early detecting alerting conditions and improving the livestock efficiency. Direct consequences of this monitoring include enhanced animal welfare, health and productivity, improved farmer lifestyle, knowledge, and traceability of livestock products. The indirect consequences, instead, include improved Carbon Footprint and socio-economic indicators of livestock products. In this context, the aim of this paper is to develop an indicator applicable to dairy cattle farming that takes into account concurrently these indirect consequences. The indicator was developed combining the three sustainability pillars (with specific criteria): environmental (carbon footprint), social (5 freedoms of animal welfare and antimicrobial use) and economic (cost of technology and manpower use). The indicator was then tested on 3 dairy cattle farms located in Italy, where a baseline traditional scenario (BS) was compared with an alternative scenario (AS) where PLF techniques and improved management solutions were adopted. The results highlighted that the carbon footprint reduced in all AS by 6-9 %, and the socio-economic indicators entailed improvements in animals and workers welfare with some differences based on the tested technique. Investing in PLF techniques determines positive effects on all/almost all the criteria adopted for the sustainability indicator, with case-specific aspects to consider. Being a user-friendly tool that supports the testing of different scenarios, this indicator could be used by stakeholders (policy makers and farmers in particular) to identify the best direction towards investments and incentive policies.}, }
@article {pmid37097140, year = {2023}, author = {Hanneman, K and Araujo-Filho, JAB and Nomura, CH and Jakubisin, J and Moy, L}, title = {Climate Change and Sustainability.}, journal = {Radiology}, volume = {307}, number = {4}, pages = {e230903}, doi = {10.1148/radiol.230903}, pmid = {37097140}, issn = {1527-1315}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid37096995, year = {2023}, author = {Gibbs, AF and Johns, DM}, title = {Leveraging natural resource damage assessments in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {569-570}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4749}, pmid = {37096995}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Natural Resources ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, }
@article {pmid37095771, year = {2023}, author = {The Lancet Regional Health-Americas, }, title = {Climate change: we must act now to secure a sustainable, healthy future for all.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {20}, number = {}, pages = {100494}, doi = {10.1016/j.lana.2023.100494}, pmid = {37095771}, issn = {2667-193X}, }
@article {pmid37095757, year = {2023}, author = {Nkosi, CS and Olorunfemi, OD and Khwidzhili, H}, title = {Data on climate change effect and use of adaptation strategies among smallholder maize farmers: Evidence from a microlevel survey in Ehlanzeni District, South Africa.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {48}, number = {}, pages = {109106}, doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2023.109106}, pmid = {37095757}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Climate Change and its effects on agriculture and human survival remain a global concern requiring continual research and the use of coping strategies. This paper focus on presenting a data article on climate change effect and use of adaptation strategies by exploiting the insight from a microlevel survey carried out among smallholder maize farmers in South Africa. The data present the change in maize output and income farmers have experienced in the last two growing seasons attributed to the effect of climate change, climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies currently utilized, and constraints faced by the maize farmers. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and t-Test analysis. The findings revealed that climate change effect is very evident in the area by the significant reduction in output and income observed among the maize farmers, and thus, it is still pertinent for farmers to scale-up their use of adaptation and mitigation strategies in the area. However, the farmers can only effectively and sustainably achieve this if extension agencies provide continuous climate change-related training for maize farmers and government harmoniously work with improved seed production agencies to ensure smallholder maize farmers can adequately access seeds when needed and at subsidized rates.}, }
@article {pmid37094809, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, J and Jiang, K and Wang, S and Li, Y and Zhang, Y and Tang, Z and Bu, W}, title = {Climate change impacts on the potential worldwide distribution of the soybean pest, Piezodorus guildinii (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae).}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {116}, number = {3}, pages = {761-770}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toad058}, pmid = {37094809}, issn = {1938-291X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Hemiptera ; Glycine max ; Climate Change ; *Heteroptera ; China ; India ; }, abstract = {The redbanded stink bug, Piezodorus guildinii (Westwood, 1837), is a highly destructive soybean pest native to the Neotropical Region. In the past 60 yr, P. guildinii has been observed to expand its distribution in North and South America, causing significant soybean yield losses. In order to predict the future distribution direction of P. guildinii and create an effective pest control strategy, we projected the potential global distribution of P. guildinii using 2 different emission scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 126 and 585, and 3 Earth system models, with the maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt). Then, the predicted distribution areas of P. guildinii were jointly analyzed with the main soybean-producing areas to assess the impact for different soybean region. Our results showed that temperature is the main environmental factor limiting the distribution of P. guildinii. Under present climate conditions, all continents except Antarctica have suitable habitat for P. guildinii. These suitable habitats overlap with approximately 45.11% of the total global cultivated soybean areas. Moreover, P. guildinii was predicted to expand its range in the future, particularly into higher latitudes in the Northern hemisphere. Countries, in particular the United States, where soybean is widely available, would face a management challenge under global warming. In addition, China and India are also high-risk countries that may be invaded and should take strict quarantine measures. The maps of projected distribution produced in this study may prove useful in the future management of P. guildinii and the containment of its disruptive effects.}, }
@article {pmid37094127, year = {2023}, author = {Rosenblad, KC and Baer, KC and Ackerly, DD}, title = {Climate change, tree demography, and thermophilization in western US forests.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {18}, pages = {e2301754120}, pmid = {37094127}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {United States ; *Trees ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Biodiversity ; Demography ; }, abstract = {Climate change is driving widespread changes in ecological communities. Warming temperatures often shift community composition toward more heat-tolerant taxa. The factors influencing the rate of this "thermophilization" process remain unclear. Using 10-y census data from an extensive forest plot network, we show that mature tree communities of the western United States have undergone thermophilization. The mean magnitude of climate warming over the 10-y study interval was 0.32 °C, whereas the mean magnitude of thermophilization was 0.039 °C. Differential tree mortality was the strongest demographic driver of thermophilization, rather than growth or recruitment. Thermophilization rates are associated with recent changes in temperature and hydrologic variables, as well as topography and disturbance, with insect damage showing the strongest standardized effect on thermophilization rates. On average, thermophilization occurred more rapidly on cool, north-facing hillslopes. Our results demonstrate that warming temperatures are outpacing the composition of western US forest tree communities, and that climate change may erode biodiversity patterns structured by topographic variation.}, }
@article {pmid37093371, year = {2023}, author = {Acaroğlu, H and Güllü, M and Seçilmiş, C}, title = {Climate change, the by-product of tourism and energy consumption through a sustainable economic growth: a non-linear ARDL analysis for Turkey.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {34}, pages = {81585-81599}, pmid = {37093371}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Economic Development ; Turkey ; *Tourism ; Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {Using a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag time-series analysis, this paper investigates the causal relationship between climate change, the tourism sector, and energy consumption in Turkey. The trade-off between a country's economic growth and the environmental degradation caused by tourism and the energy sector is critical in terms of scientifically addressing the issue and developing economic policies. As a result, climate change is used as the dependent variable and is represented by precipitation and temperature separately; the independent variables are tourist arrivals, energy consumption, and economic growth. Data is gathered by various institutions from 1995 to 2020. According to the test results, while positive and negative shocks contribute to the decrease in precipitation and temperature in renewable energy consumption (REC) in the long-run, they affect the increase in precipitation and temperature in non-renewable energy consumption (NREC). In the long-run relationship between tourism and temperature, a decrease in the number of tourist arrivals causes a decrease in temperature and precipitation. The findings reveal that a decrease in the number of tourist arrivals and an increase in REC may aid in decreasing temperature, while the increase in NREC may cause an increase in temperature. Through a case study of Turkey, decision-makers should consider these scientific findings that are in the frame of non-linear analysis as possible scenarios for mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable economic growth with efficient tourism policies for the world.}, }
@article {pmid37091849, year = {2023}, author = {Yüzen, D and Graf, I and Diemert, A and Arck, PC}, title = {Climate change and pregnancy complications: From hormones to the immune response.}, journal = {Frontiers in endocrinology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1149284}, pmid = {37091849}, issn = {1664-2392}, mesh = {Child ; Pregnancy ; Infant, Newborn ; Female ; Humans ; *Premature Birth ; Climate Change ; Pregnancy Outcome ; Hormones ; Immunity ; }, abstract = {Pregnant women are highly vulnerable to adverse environments. Accumulating evidence highlights that increasing temperatures associated with the ongoing climate change pose a threat to successful reproduction. Heat stress caused by an increased ambient temperature can result in adverse pregnancy outcomes, e.g., preterm birth, stillbirth and low fetal weight. The pathomechanisms through which heat stress interferes with pregnancy maintenance still remain vague, but emerging evidence underscores that the endocrine system is severely affected. It is well known that the endocrine system pivotally contributes to the physiological progression of pregnancy. We review - sometimes speculate - how heat stress can offset hormonal dysregulations and subsequently derail other systems which interact with hormones, such as the immune response. This may account for the heat-stress related threat to successful pregnancy progression, fetal development and long-term children's health.}, }
@article {pmid37091602, year = {2023}, author = {Subramanian, A and Nagarajan, AM and Vinod, S and Chakraborty, S and Sivagami, K and Theodore, T and Sathyanarayanan, SS and Tamizhdurai, P and Mangesh, VL}, title = {Long-term impacts of climate change on coastal and transitional eco-systems in India: an overview of its current status, future projections, solutions, and policies.}, journal = {RSC advances}, volume = {13}, number = {18}, pages = {12204-12228}, pmid = {37091602}, issn = {2046-2069}, abstract = {Urbanization and industrial development are increasing rapidly. These are accompanied by problems of population explosion, encroachment of agricultural, and construction lands, increased waste generation, effluent release, and escalated concentrations of several greenhouse gases (GHGs) and pollutants in the atmosphere. This has led to wide-scale adverse impacts. Visible effects are fluctuations in temperatures and precipitation, rising sea levels, unpredictable floods, storms and cyclones, and disruption to coastal and transitional ecosystems. In a country like India with a massive population of nearly 1.4 billion and around 420 million people dwelling on or near the coasts, this effect is pre-dominant. India has extensive coastlines on both sides that are subject to greater contact and high impact from the water bodies. The factors impacting climate change, its consequences, and future predictions must be analyzed immediately for implementing precautionary measures to ameliorate the detrimental effects. Several endemic species have been endangered as these changes have resulted in the loss of habitat and interfered with the food webs. Climatic impacts on transitional ecosystems also need to be considered to preserve the diversity of each. The cooperation of governmental, independent organizations and policymakers throughout the world is essential to control and mediate the impacts on health, agriculture, and other related sectors, the details of which have been elaborated in this review. The review analyses the trends in climatic variation with time and discusses a few extremities which have left permanent effects on the population primarily concerning the coastal - Indian scenario and its eco-systems.}, }
@article {pmid37089911, year = {2023}, author = {Perera, U and Miyane, K and Sakoda, N and Thu, K and Higashi, Y}, title = {PvT Properties and Thermodynamic Property Correlations for the Low Global Warming Potential Hydrofluoroolefin Refrigerant R-1132a (1,1-Difluoroethene).}, journal = {International journal of thermophysics}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {84}, pmid = {37089911}, issn = {0195-928X}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: R-1132a is increasingly being considered as a low global warming potential component in alternative mixtures to R-23 in specialized low temperature and ultra-low temperature refrigeration systems. Though the thermodynamic properties of R-1132a were investigated in several studies up to 2018, reinvestigations have been carried out in recent years. In order to contribute toward these renewed measurements, the critical parameters of R-1132a were experimentally re-determined. Thirty-two vapor pressures from 240 K to the critical temperature, fifteen saturated vapor and six saturated liquid densities above 254 K and the PvT properties in both the vapor phase (98 points) and liquid phase (34 points) from densities of 50 kg·m[-3] to 760 kg·m[-3] were also measured. Specific correlations for each of these properties were optimized and compared to previously available data from the literature. Additionally, the Peng-Robinson equation of state was used to represent the aforementioned properties and further utilized to determine the enthalpy and entropy of R-1132a.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10765-023-03184-4.}, }
@article {pmid37089646, year = {2023}, author = {Dutta, TK and Phani, V}, title = {The pervasive impact of global climate change on plant-nematode interaction continuum.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1143889}, pmid = {37089646}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Pest profiles in today's global food production system are continually affected by climate change and extreme weather. Under varying climatic conditions, plant-parasitic nematodes (PPNs) cause substantial economic damage to a wide variety of agricultural and horticultural commodities. In parallel, their herbivory also accredit to diverse ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling, allocation and turnover of plant biomass, shaping of vegetation community, and alteration of rhizospheric microorganism consortium by modifying the root exudation pattern. Thus PPNs, together with the vast majority of free-living nematodes, act as ecological drivers. Because of direct exposure to the open environment, PPN biology and physiology are largely governed by environmental factors including temperature, precipitation, humidity, atmospheric and soil carbon dioxide level, and weather extremes. The negative effects of climate change such as global warming, elevated CO2, altered precipitation and the weather extremes including heat waves, droughts, floods, wildfires and storms greatly influence the biogeographic range, distribution, abundance, survival, fitness, reproduction, and parasitic potential of the PPNs. Changes in these biological and ecological parameters associated to the PPNs exert huge impact on agriculture. Yet, depending on how adaptable the species are according to their geo-spatial distribution, the consequences of climate change include both positive and negative effects on the PPN communities. While assorting the effects of climate change as a whole, it can be estimated that the changing environmental factors, on one hand, will aggravate the PPN damage by aiding to abundance, distribution, reproduction, generation, plant growth and reduced plant defense, but the phenomena like sex reversal, entering cryptobiosis, and reduced survival should act in counter direction. This seemingly creates a contraposition effect, where assessing any confluent trend is difficult. However, as the climate change effects will differ according to space and time it is apprehensible that the PPNs will react and adapt according to their location and species specificity. Nevertheless, the bio-ecological shifts in the PPNs will necessitate tweaking their management practices from the agri-horticultural perspective. In this regard, we must aim for a 'climate-smart' package that will take care of the food production, pest prevention and environment protection. Integrated nematode management involving precise monitoring and modeling-based studies of population dynamics in relation to climatic fluctuations with escalated reliance on biocontrol, host resistance, and other safer approaches like crop rotation, crop scheduling, cover cropping, biofumigation, use of farmyard manure (FYM) would surely prove to be viable options. Although the novel nematicidal molecules are target-specific and relatively less harmful to the environment, their application should not be promoted following the global aim to reduce pesticide usage in future agriculture. Thus, having a reliable risk assessment with scenario planning, the adaptive management strategies must be designed to cope with the impending situation and satisfy the farmers' need.}, }
@article {pmid37089322, year = {2023}, author = {Nyashilu, IM and Kiunsi, RB and Kyessi, AG}, title = {Assessment of exposure, coping and adaptation strategies for elements at risk to climate change-induced flooding in urban areas. The case of Jangwani Ward in Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e15000}, pmid = {37089322}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Urban areas are the engines of socioeconomic growth and the homes of billions of people around the globe. In a changing climate, urban areas are inexorably from vulnerability to climate hazards including flooding which deters their social, economic, and environmental sustainability. The main objective of this paper was to explore exposure to elements at risk due to climate change-induced flooding in urban areas. In addition, the paper analyses the coping and adaptation strategies practiced at the community and national levels and recommends appropriate policy measures for enhanced climate resilience in urban areas. The study adopted purposeful sampling in which n = 95 households were selected for the study. Data collection methods involved household interviews with structured questionnaires, focused group discussions, documentary reviews, transect walks, surveys, and observations. Data analysis was done with a statistical package for social sciences. The results revealed that the elements at risk of exposure to climate change-induced flooding in the study area were physical infrastructures, socio-economic activities, livelihoods, and ecosystems. The study recommends enhancing resilience of elements at risk to climate change-induced flooding at national and local levels in urban areas. This is through promoting flood policies, strategies, laws, planning and management measures; enhance non-structural actions including flood forecasting, mapping, emergency evacuation plans and land use zoning and structural measures namely dams, dikes, storm surge barriers for adaptation to urban flooding.}, }
@article {pmid37089084, year = {2023}, author = {Zhou, Y and He, G and Bhagwat, G and Palanisami, T and Yang, Y and Liu, W and Zhang, Q}, title = {Nanoplastics alter ecosystem multifunctionality and may increase global warming potential.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {14}, pages = {3895-3909}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16734}, pmid = {37089084}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {32022051//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32030069//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Global Warming ; Microplastics ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Methane/analysis ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Although the presence of nanoplastics in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems has received increasing attention, little is known about its potential effect on ecosystem processes and functions. Here, we evaluated if differentially charged polystyrene (PS) nanoplastics (PS-NH2 and PS-SO3 H) exhibit distinct influences on microbial community structure, nitrogen removal processes (denitrification and anammox), emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2 , CH4 , and N2 O), and ecosystem multifunctionality in soils with and without earthworms through a 42-day microcosm experiment. Our results indicated that nanoplastics significantly altered soil microbial community structure and potential functions, with more pronounced effects for positively charged PS-NH2 than for negatively charged PS-SO3 H. Ecologically relevant concentration (3 g kg[-1]) of nanoplastics inhibited both soil denitrification and anammox rates, while environmentally realistic concentration (0.3 g kg[-1]) of nanoplastics decreased the denitrification rate and enhanced the anammox rate. The soil N2 O flux was always inhibited 6%-51% by both types of nanoplastics, whereas emissions of CO2 and CH4 were enhanced by nanoplastics in most cases. Significantly, although N2 O emissions were decreased by nanoplastics, the global warming potential of total greenhouse gases was increased 21%-75% by nanoplastics in soils without earthworms. Moreover, ecosystem multifunctionality was increased 4%-12% by 0.3 g kg[-1] of nanoplastics but decreased 4%-11% by 3 g kg[-1] of nanoplastics. Our findings provide the only evidence to date that the rapid increase in nanoplastics is altering not only ecosystem structure and processes but also ecosystem multifunctionality, and it may increase the emission of CO2 and CH4 and their global warming potential to some extent.}, }
@article {pmid37087011, year = {2023}, author = {Infantino, A and Belocchi, A and Quaranta, F and Reverberi, M and Beccaccioli, M and Lombardi, D and Vitale, M}, title = {Effects of climate change on the distribution of Fusarium spp. in Italy.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {882}, number = {}, pages = {163640}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163640}, pmid = {37087011}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Fusarium ; Climate Change ; Italy ; Temperature ; Edible Grain ; }, abstract = {This work studies the incidence of Fusarium spp. on wheat kernels about current and future climatic conditions in Italy. Epidemiological analyses were performed from 2007 to 2013 and the resulting dataset was used to find correlations between the disease incidence of five important Fusarium species monitored in Italy (Fusarium graminearum, F. langsethiae, F. sporotrichioides, F. poae and F. avenaceum) and climatic and geographical parameters. Probabilistic-based modelling of the actual distribution of Fusarium spp. was achieved by using the Zero-inflated Poisson regression. The probabilistic geographical distribution of the Fusarium species was assessed by applying future climatic scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). The shift from current to future climatic scenarios highlighted changes on a national and regional scale. The tightening of environmental conditions from the RCP4.5 to 8.5 scenarios resulted in a sporadic presence of F. avenaceum only in the northern region of Italy. Fusarium graminearum was plentifully present in the current climate, but the tightening of minimum and maximum temperatures and the decrease of precipitation between May-June in the RCP8.5 no longer represents the optimum conditions for it. Fusarium langsethiae was currently distributed in all of Italy, showing an increase in the probability of detecting it by moving from high to low latitudes and from low to high longitudes in the RCP8.5. Fusarium poae, unlike other Fusarium species, grows and develops in arid climatic conditions. High values of F. poae were recorded at low latitudes and longitudes. Under the RCP scenarios, it showed high incidence probabilities in the southeast and northeast areas of Italy. Fusarium sporotrichioides is scarcely present in Italy, found at high latitudes and in the central areas. Climate change altered this distribution, and the chances of discovering it increased significantly moving to southern Italy. Overall, the study shows that climate change conditions are likely to lead to an increase in the incidence of Fusarium species on wheat kernels in Italy, highlighting the importance of developing strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change on wheat production, quality, and safety.}, }
@article {pmid37086989, year = {2023}, author = {Bhattacharyya, A and Dhyani, R and Joshi, R and Shekhar, M and Kuniyal, JC and Ranhotra, PS and Singh, SP}, title = {Is survival of Himalayan Cedar (Cedrus deodara) threatened? An evaluation based on predicted scenarios of its growth trend under future climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {882}, number = {}, pages = {163630}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163630}, pmid = {37086989}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global warming is likely to become one of the significant drivers of forest losses in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH) during the 21[st] century. Better understanding of how forest ecosystem will respond to global warming requires a precise knowledge of site and species specific responses to climate change. We applied dendrochronological technique to quantify and predict future growth trend of Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara), a tree of high commercial importance, and explored its spatial growth variability under two different climatic regimes from 17 deodar sites in the HKH. Of the two climate regimes, one is dominated by the monsoon rainfall and the other by the westerly disturbances. Analysis of tree ring width and climate (monthly temperature and precipitation) data reveals that the spring (March-May) temperature and precipitation affect the growth of deodar negatively and positively, respectively. We used Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression model to forecast future growth of deodar by taking an ensemble of 40 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Predicted growth trends indicate the decline between 34 % and 38 % under RCP 4.5, and between 29 % and 32 % under RCP 8.5 scenarios, for the low and mid latitude sites. In contrast, a moderate increase in growth was observed in high latitude sites under the both climate scenarios. The study shows more drought stress to deodar trees growing in monsoon areas in mid-and low-latitude sites where less snow melt and low precipitation during the spring season are predicted to increase evapotranspiration. In comparison, in the higher latitude sites where there is a high snowfall due to western disturbances, the growth of deodar is predicted to increase. These findings may be used to take suitable migratory steps for the conservation of deodar in the HKH region.}, }
@article {pmid37086909, year = {2023}, author = {Giareta, EP and Hauser-Davis, RA and Abilhoa, V and Wosnick, N}, title = {Carbonic anhydrase in elasmobranchs and current climate change scenario implications.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {281}, number = {}, pages = {111435}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2023.111435}, pmid = {37086909}, issn = {1531-4332}, mesh = {Animals ; *Carbonic Anhydrases ; Climate Change ; Fishes/physiology ; Phylogeny ; *Sharks ; }, abstract = {The enzyme carbonic anhydrase (CA) has well-known functions in acid-base balance, respiratory gas exchange, and osmoregulation in teleost fishes. However, studies concerning the role of CA in elasmobranchs are still scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study is to present the current status of CA studies in sharks and rays, as well as to identify gaps and emerging needs, in order to guide future studies. This review is organized according to the main roles of CA, with further considerations on climate change and CA effects indicated as paramount, as strategies in the face of climate change can be crucial for species response. The literature review revealed a reduction in publications on CA over the years. In addition, a historical research differentiation is noted, where the first assessments on the subject addressed investigations on basic CA functions, while the most recent studies present a comparative approach among species as well as interdisciplinary discussions, such as ecology and phylogeny. Considering that several elasmobranchs are threatened, future studies should prioritize non-lethal methodologies, in addition to expanding studies to climate change effects on CA.}, }
@article {pmid37086151, year = {2023}, author = {DeVoe, JE and Huguet, N and Likumahuwa-Ackman, S and Bazemore, A and Gold, R and Werner, L}, title = {Precision Ecologic Medicine: Tailoring Care to Mitigate Impacts of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of primary care &amp; community health}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {21501319231170585}, pmid = {37086151}, issn = {2150-1327}, support = {P50 CA244289/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Cities ; *Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {As recent extreme weather events demonstrate, climate change presents unprecedented and increasing health risks, disproportionately so for disadvantaged communities in the U.S. already experiencing health disparities. As patients in these frontline communities live through extreme weather events, socioeconomic and health stressors are compounded; thus, their healthcare teams will need tools to provide precision ecologic medicine approaches to their care. Many primary care teams are taking actionable steps to bring community-level socioeconomic data ("community vital signs") into electronic medical records, to facilitate tailoring care based on a given patient's circumstances. This work can be extended to include environmental risk data, thus equipping healthcare teams with an awareness of clinical and community vital signs and making them better positioned to mitigate climate impacts on health. For example, if healthcare teams can easily identify patients who have multiple chronic conditions and live in an urban heat island, they can proactively arrange to "prescribe" an air conditioner, heat pump, and/or air purifier. Or, when a severe storm/heat event/poor air quality event is predicted, they can take preemptive steps to get help to patients at high medical and socioeconomic risk, rather than waiting for them to arrive in the emergency department. Advances in health information technologies now make it technically feasible to integrate a wealth of publicly-available community-level data into EMRs. Efforts to bring this contextual data into clinical settings must be accelerated to equip healthcare teams to provide precision ecologic medicine interventions to their patients.}, }
@article {pmid37086082, year = {2023}, author = {Hutsemékers, V and Mouton, L and Westenbohm, H and Collart, F and Vanderpoorten, A}, title = {Disentangling climate change from air pollution effects on epiphytic bryophytes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {14}, pages = {3990-4000}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16736}, pmid = {37086082}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Belgium ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Environmental Pollution ; *Bryophyta/physiology ; }, abstract = {At the interface between atmosphere and vegetation, epiphytic floras have been largely used as indicators of air quality. The recovery of epiphytes from high levels of SO2 pollution has resulted in major range changes, whose interpretation has, however, been challenged by concomitant variation in other pollutants as well as climate change. Here, we combine historical and contemporary information on epiphytic bryophyte species distributions, climatic conditions, and pollution loads since the 1980s in southern Belgium to disentangle the relative impact of climate change and air pollution on temporal shifts in species composition. The relationship between the temporal variation of species composition, climatic conditions, SO2 , NO2 , O3 , and fine particle concentrations, was analyzed by variation partitioning. The temporal shift in species composition was such, that it was, on average, more than twice larger than the change in species composition observed today among communities scattered across the study area. The main driver, contributing to 38% of this temporal shift in species composition, was the variation of air quality. Climate change alone did not contribute to the substantial compositional shifts in epiphytic bryophyte communities in the course of the last 40 years. As a consequence of the substantial drop of N and S loads over the last decades, present-day variations of epiphytic floras were, however, better explained by the spatial variation of climatic conditions than by extant pollution loads. The lack of any signature of recolonization delays of formerly polluted areas in the composition of modern floras suggests that epiphytic bryophytes efficiently disperse at the landscape scale. We suggest that a monitoring of epiphyte communities at 10-year intervals would be desirable to assess the impact of raising pollution sources, and especially pesticides, whose impact on bryophytes remains poorly documented.}, }
@article {pmid37085511, year = {2023}, author = {Shaban, M and Ghehsareh Ardestani, E and Ebrahimi, A and Borhani, M}, title = {Climate change impacts on optimal habitat of Stachys inflata medicinal plant in central Iran.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {6580}, pmid = {37085511}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Stachys ; *Plants, Medicinal ; Ecosystem ; Iran ; }, abstract = {Stachys inflata Benth. is a perennial shrub plant, with powerful natural antioxidant agents, which is recognized as a famous medicinal plant that is widely applied to treat Infection, Asthma, and Rheumatism. Iran is renowned as a center of diversity for Stachys, however, the ideal habitats of S. inflata in this nation remain unknown. The potential and future distribution of suitable habitats for S. inflata were projected using an ensembles ecological niche model in Isfahan province, Iran. We used occurrence data (using GPS), bioclimatic and topographic variables from the Chelsa and WorldClim databases to model the current and future potential distribution of this valuable species. The results showed that: (i) S. inflata is mainly distributed in the south, southwest, center, and west of the Isfahan province, and the excellent habitats of S. inflata accounted for 14.34% of the 107,000 km[2] study area; (ii) mean annual temperature, mean daily temperature of wettest quarter, annual precipitation, and elevation were the four most important variables that affect the distribution of S. inflata, with a cumulative contribution of 56.55%; and (iii) about the half (- 42.36%) of the currently excellent habitats of S. inflata show a tendency to decrease from now to the 2080s, while often the area of other S. inflata habitats increases (the area of unsuitable habitat: 5.83%, the area of low habitat suitability: 24.68%, the area of moderate habitat suitability: 2.66%, and the area of high habitat suitability: 2.88%). The increase in the area of other S. inflata habitats is different and they are less favorable than the excellent habitat. The results help establishing a framework for long-term in-situ and ex-situ conservation and management practices in habitats of S. inflata in rangeland and agricultural ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid37084909, year = {2023}, author = {Fournier, A and Martinez, A and Iglesias, G}, title = {Impacts of climate change on wind energy potential in Australasia and South-East Asia following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {882}, number = {}, pages = {163347}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163347}, pmid = {37084909}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Wind energy is poised to play a major role in the energy transition. Fluctuations in global atmospheric circulation are expected as a result of climate change, and wind projections based on the most up-to-date scenarios of climate change, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), anticipate significant changes in wind energy potential in many regions; so far, these changes have not been studied in Southeastern Asia and Australasia, a region with notable wind energy potential. This work investigates the evolution of wind power density and its temporal variability considering the latest scenarios of climate change, the SSPs. More specifically, two scenarios are considered, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, corresponding to moderate and high emissions, respectively. As many as 18 global climate models are considered and compared against past-present data, and those that perform best are retained to build a large multi-model ensemble. The results show that projected changes in mean wind power density at the end of the 21st century are of little significance (typically below 5 %); nevertheless, this value can be far surpassed locally. In certain areas (e.g., Vietnam, Borneo) and seasons, remarkable changes in wind power density (exceeding 150 %) are anticipated. Typically, mean values and temporal variability changes are greater in the high-emissions scenario, however, seasonal variability is projected to be more pronounced in the moderate-emissions scenario. These effects of climate change on wind energy potential must be taken into account in the development of wind power in the region, for they will affect the energy production and, therefore, the economic viability of wind farms - not least in those areas where drastic changes are projected.}, }
@article {pmid37084908, year = {2023}, author = {Gómez, AMR and de Jong van Lier, Q and Silvero, NEQ and Inforsato, L and de Melo, MLA and Rodríguez-Albarracín, HS and Rosin, NA and Rosas, JTF and Rizzo, R and Demattê, JAM}, title = {Digital mapping of the soil available water capacity: tool for the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {882}, number = {}, pages = {163572}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163572}, pmid = {37084908}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Soil available water capacity (AWC) is a key function for human survival and well-being. However, its direct measurement is laborious and spatial interpretation is complex. Digital soil mapping (DSM) techniques emerge as an alternative to spatial modeling of soil properties. DSM techniques commonly apply machine learning (ML) models, with a high level of complexity. In this context, we aimed to perform a digital mapping of soil AWC and interpret the results of the Random Forest (RF) algorithm and, in a case study, to show that digital AWC maps can support agricultural planning in response to the local effects of climate change. To do so, we divided this research into two approaches: In the first approach, we showed a DSM using 1857 sample points in a southeastern region of Brazil with laboratory-determined soil attributes, together with a pedotransfer function (PTF), remote sensing and DSM techniques. In the second approach, the constructed AWC digital soil map and weather station data were used to calculate climatological soil water balances for the periods between 1917-1946 and 1991-2020. The result showed the selection of covariates using Shapley values as a criterion contributed to the parsimony of the model, obtaining goodness-of-fit metrics of R[2] 0.72, RMSE 16.72 mm m[-1], CCC 0.83, and Bias of 0.53 over the validation set. The highest contributing covariates for soil AWC prediction were the Landsat multitemporal images with bare soil pixels, mean diurnal, and annual temperature range. Under the current climate conditions, soil available water content (AW) increased during the dry period (April to August). May had the highest increase in AW (∼17 mm m[-1]) and decrease in September (∼14 mm m[-1]). The used methodology provides support for AWC modeling at 30 m resolution, as well as insight into the adaptation of crop growth periods to the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37084577, year = {2023}, author = {Deng, J and Shan, K and Shi, K and Qian, SS and Zhang, Y and Qin, B and Zhu, G}, title = {Nutrient reduction mitigated the expansion of cyanobacterial blooms caused by climate change in Lake Taihu according to Bayesian network models.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {236}, number = {}, pages = {119946}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.119946}, pmid = {37084577}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {*Lakes/microbiology ; Climate Change ; Bayes Theorem ; *Cyanobacteria/physiology ; Eutrophication ; Nutrients ; Phosphorus/analysis ; China ; }, abstract = {Although nutrient reduction has been used for lake eutrophication mitigation worldwide, the use of this practice alone has been shown to be less effective in combatting cyanobacterial blooms, primarily because of climate change. In addition, quantifying the climate change contribution to cyanobacterial blooms is difficult, further complicating efforts to set nutrient reduction goals for mitigating blooms in freshwater lakes. This study employed a continuous variable Bayesian modeling framework to develop a model to predict spring cyanobacterial bloom areas and frequencies (the responses) using nutrient levels and climatic factors as predictors. Our results suggested that both spring climatic factors (e.g., increasing temperature and decreasing wind speed) and nutrients (e.g., total phosphorus) played vital roles in spring blooms in Lake Taihu, with climatic factors being the primary drivers for both bloom areas and frequencies. Climate change in spring had a 90% probability of increasing the bloom area from 35 km[2] to 180 km[2] during our study period, while nutrient reduction limited the bloom area to 170 km[2], which helped mitigate expansion of cyanobacterial blooms. For lake management, to ensure a 90% probability of the mean spring bloom areas remaining under 154 km[2] (the 75th percentile of the bloom areas in spring), the total phosphorus should be maintained below 0.073 mg·L[-1] under current climatic conditions, which is a 46.3% reduction from the current level. Our modeling approach is an effective method for deriving dynamic nutrient thresholds for lake management under different climatic scenarios and management goals.}, }
@article {pmid37082319, year = {2023}, author = {Monge, O and Maggini, I and Schulze, CH and Dullinger, S and Fusani, L}, title = {Physiologically vulnerable or resilient? Tropical birds, global warming, and redistributions.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e9985}, pmid = {37082319}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Tropical species are considered to be more threatened by climate change than those of other world regions. This increased sensitivity to warming is thought to stem from the assumptions of low physiological capacity to withstand temperature fluctuations and already living near their limits of heat tolerance under current climatic conditions. For birds, despite thorough documentation of community-level rearrangements, such as biotic attrition and elevational shifts, there is no consistent evidence of direct physiological sensitivity to warming. In this review, we provide an integrative outlook into the physiological response of tropical birds to thermal variation and their capacity to cope with warming. In short, evidence from the literature suggests that the assumed physiological sensitivity to warming attributed to tropical biotas does not seem to be a fundamental characteristic of tropical birds. Tropical birds do possess the physiological capacities to deal with fluctuating temperatures, including high-elevation species, and are prepared to withstand elevated levels of heat, even those living in hot and arid environments. However, there are still many unaddressed points that hinder a more complete understanding of the response of tropical birds to warming, such as cooling capacities when exposed to combined gradients of heat and humidity, the response of montane species to heat, and thermoregulation under increased levels of microclimatic stress in disturbed ecosystems. Further research into how populations and species from different ecological contexts handle warming will increase our understanding of current and future community rearrangements in tropical birds.}, }
@article {pmid37081111, year = {2023}, author = {Goshua, A and Gomez, J and Erny, B and Gisondi, M and Patel, L and Sampath, V and Sheffield, P and Nadeau, KC}, title = {Child-focused climate change and health content in medical schools and pediatric residencies.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37081111}, issn = {1530-0447}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change-driven primarily by the combustion of fossil fuels that form greenhouse gases-has numerous consequences that impact health, including extreme weather events of accelerating frequency and intensity (e.g., wildfires, thunderstorms, droughts, and heat waves), mental health sequelae of displacement from these events, and the increase in aeroallergens and other pollutants. Children are especially vulnerable to climate-related exposures given that they are still developing, encounter higher exposures compared to adults, and are at risk of losing many healthy future years of life. In order to better meet the needs of generations of children born into a world affected by climate change, medical trainees must develop their knowledge of the relationships between climate change and children's health-with a focus on applying that information in clinical practice. This review provides an overview of salient climate change and children's health topics that medical school and pediatric residency training curricula should cover. In addition, it highlights the strengths and limitations of existing medical school and residency climate change and pediatric health curricula. IMPACT: Provides insight into the current climate change and pediatric health curricular opportunities for medical trainees in North America at both the medical school and residency levels. Condenses climate change and pediatric health material relevant to trainees to help readers optimize curricula at their institutions.}, }
@article {pmid37079928, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Infographic: A Holistic Perspective of the Societal Relevance of Beef Production and Its Impacts On Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of animal science}, volume = {101}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {37079928}, issn = {1525-3163}, mesh = {Cattle ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Data Visualization ; Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid37079612, year = {2023}, author = {Léger-Goodes, T and Malboeuf-Hurtubise, C and Hurtubise, K and Simons, K and Boucher, A and Paradis, PO and Herba, CM and Camden, C and Généreux, M}, title = {How children make sense of climate change: A descriptive qualitative study of eco-anxiety in parent-child dyads.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {e0284774}, pmid = {37079612}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; Adolescent ; Humans ; Child ; *Climate Change ; *Parents/psychology ; Adaptation, Psychological ; Anxiety ; Parent-Child Relations ; }, abstract = {The climate crisis not only has significant impacts on biodiversity and the physical health of humans, but its ramifications are also affecting people's mental health. Eco-anxiety, or the emotions that emerge with the awareness of climate change and the apprehension of its detrimental effects, has been investigated in adults and adolescents, but much less attention has been given to the impacts on children's mental health and well-being. Initial evidence confirms that youth are significantly concerned about climate change, but few studies have investigated the resulting emotional responses of children and the role of their parents in tempering these, especially using qualitative methodologies. The present study used a descriptive qualitative design with a convenience sample of parents and child dyads, assessed separately. Children's (n = 15, ages 8-12 years) experiences were explored using semi-structured interviews and their parents' (n = 12) perceptions were captured using a survey with closed and open-ended questions. A reflexive thematic analysis was used to analyze the interview data, and content analysis was used to investigate parent-child experiences. Three themes emerged from the thematic analysis: 1. children's understanding of climate change, 2. their emotional reaction to climate change, and 3. their coping mechanisms to deal with these emotions. The comparative content analysis revealed that parents who were aware that their children had concerns about climate change, had children who used more adaptive coping mechanisms. The results of this qualitative study contribute to a better understanding of children's emotional experience of the awareness of climate change in Canada and how they cope with these emotions. Furthermore, the results provide insight into the role parents might play in helping their children cope with their feelings.}, }
@article {pmid37079503, year = {2023}, author = {Gu, C}, title = {'Climate change concerns human survival…and justice in our international community': A corpus-based positive discourse analysis (PDA) of the largest developing nation's global involve/engagement discourses (re)told in interpreting.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {e0277705}, pmid = {37079503}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; *Social Justice ; Internationality ; *Politics ; Survival ; Environmental Justice ; }, abstract = {Contributing to a much-needed 'outward turn' in interpreting studies, this intervention examines the role of interpreting and interpreters in (re)articulating the welcome 'voice' of a developing nation in the global South. Against the backdrop of reform and opening-up (ROU), China, the world's largest developing country, is increasingly open and keen to engage globally. Such elements as openness, integration, and international engagement represent vital components of the overarching ROU metadiscourse that justifies China's sociopolitical system and multifarious policies and decisions. As part of a series of digital humanities (DH) informed empirical studies exploring the part played by interpreting in rendering China's ROU metadiscourse, this study zooms in on the government interpreters' mediation of Beijing's international engagement and global involvement discourses. Unlike CDA which often foregrounds the negative themes (e.g. injustice, oppression, dominance, and hegemony), an innovative corpus-based positive discourse analysis (PDA) is introduced and applied, drawing on 20 years of China's press conferences. This article points to the interpreters' visibility and agency in facilitating and strengthening China's discourse through (over)producing core lexical items and salient collocational patterns. Following the trends of interdisciplinarity and digital humanities, this corpus-based PDA study illustrates ultimately how a major non-Western developing country from the global South communicates its discourse bilingually in front of the international community. The potential impact and implications of the interpreter-in(tro)duced discursive changes are discussed vis-à-vis the ever shifting and delicate East-West power balance from the perspective of (geo)politics.}, }
@article {pmid37078996, year = {2023}, author = {Mendoza-Portillo, V and García-De León, FJ and von der Heyden, S}, title = {Responses of population structure and genomic diversity to climate change and fishing pressure in a pelagic fish.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {14}, pages = {4107-4125}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16732}, pmid = {37078996}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2505161165//Secretar&#xed;a de Agricultura, Ganader&#xed;a, Desarrollo Rural, Pesca y Alimentaci&#xf3;n/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Hunting ; Climate Change ; Pacific Ocean ; Genotype ; Genomics ; Fisheries ; Ecosystem ; *Perciformes ; }, abstract = {The responses of marine species to environmental changes and anthropogenic pressures (e.g., fishing) interact with ecological and evolutionary processes that are not well understood. Knowledge of changes in the distribution range and genetic diversity of species and their populations into the future is essential for the conservation and sustainable management of resources. Almaco jack (Seriola rivoliana) is a pelagic fish with high importance to fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific Ocean. In this study, we assessed contemporary genomic diversity and structure in loci that are putatively under selection (outlier loci) and determined their potential functions. Using a combination of genotype-environment association, spatial distribution models, and demogenetic simulations, we modeled the effects of climate change (under three different RCP scenarios) and fishing pressure on the species' geographic distribution and genomic diversity and structure to 2050 and 2100. Our results show that most of the outlier loci identified were related to biological and metabolic processes that may be associated with temperature and salinity. The contemporary genomic structure showed three populations-two in the Eastern Pacific (Cabo San Lucas and Eastern Pacific) and one in the Central Pacific (Hawaii). Future projections suggest a loss of suitable habitat and potential range contractions for most scenarios, while fishing pressure decreased population connectivity. Our results suggest that future climate change scenarios and fishing pressure will affect the genomic structure and genotypic composition of S. rivoliana and lead to loss of genomic diversity in populations distributed in the eastern-central Pacific Ocean, which could have profound effects on fisheries that depend on this resource.}, }
@article {pmid37076008, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, M and Fu, X and Zhang, D and Chen, F and Liu, M and Zhou, S and Su, J and Tan, SK}, title = {Assessing urban flooding risk in response to climate change and urbanization based on shared socio-economic pathways.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {880}, number = {}, pages = {163470}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163470}, pmid = {37076008}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Floods ; *Urbanization ; Climate Change ; Hong Kong ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Global climate change and rapid urbanization, mainly driven by anthropogenic activities, lead to urban flood vulnerability and uncertainty in sustainable stormwater management. This study projected the temporal and spatial variation in urban flood susceptibility during the period 2020-2050 on the basis of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). A case study in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) was conducted for verifying the feasibility and applicability of this approach. GBA is predicted to encounter the increase in extreme precipitation with high intensity and frequency, along with rapid expansion of constructed areas, resulting in exacerbating of urban flood susceptibility. The areas with medium and high flood susceptibility will be expected to increase continuously from 2020 to 2050, by 9.5 %, 12.0 %, and 14.4 % under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. In terms of the assessment of spatial-temporal flooding pattern, the areas with high flood susceptibility are overlapped with that in the populated urban center in GBA, surrounding the existing risk areas, which is consistent with the tendency of construction land expansion. The approach in the present study will provide comprehensive insights into the reliable and accurate assessment of urban flooding susceptibility in response to climate change and urbanization.}, }
@article {pmid37074836, year = {2022}, author = {Gawrych, M}, title = {Climate change and mental health: a review of current literature.}, journal = {Psychiatria polska}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {903-915}, doi = {10.12740/PP/OnlineFirst/131991}, pmid = {37074836}, issn = {2391-5854}, mesh = {Humans ; *Mental Health ; Climate Change ; *Disasters ; }, abstract = {This review article focuses on mental health implications of climate change. Global warming is likely to cause the severe widespread emergencies: extreme heat, droughts, wildfires, water-related disasters (i.e., flooding, hurricanes and coastal storms), extreme snow, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Rising temperatures, sea level rise and extreme weather events have led to secondary and tertiary consequences, e.g., social disruption, impoverishment and population displacement. Mental health risks of climate change include greater stress, stressrelated disorders, anxiety, despair, depression, and suicidal ideation. Those risks can stem from climate-related natural disasters (e.g., extreme weather events), slower moving events (e.g., drought), or concern about the phenomenon of climate change itself. A focus on the impact of climate change on mental health can help enhance the understanding of factors that strengthen psychosocial resilience and adaptation, as well as design tailor-made local interventions. Proper psychosocial adaptation strategies for the upcoming mental health challenges of climate change require development of social capital and strengthening of institutional systems.}, }
@article {pmid37072363, year = {2023}, author = {Moosburger, R and Wagner, J and Heldt, K and Richter, A and Manz, K and Mensink, GBM and Loss, J}, title = {Perspectives of individuals on reducing meat consumption to mitigate climate change: protocol for a scoping review.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e071122}, pmid = {37072363}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Qualitative Research ; *Multiple Chronic Conditions ; Meat ; Research Design ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; Review Literature as Topic ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: High consumption of red and processed meat increases the risk of several chronic diseases. Many people, especially in high-income countries, eat more meat than recommended by nutritional and health agencies. Meat production also has negative impacts on the environment and contributes to climate change. Therefore, climate protection, besides health or animal welfare, could motivate individuals to eat less meat. Willingness to reduce meat consumption and motives to do so are not yet fully understood.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) extended guidelines, a scoping review of peer-reviewed original studies will be conducted to address three questions: What is the evidence regarding (1) the willingness of individuals to reduce meat consumption to mitigate climate change, (2) the awareness of individuals about the link between their meat consumption and the potential to mitigate climate change and (3) individuals having reduced meat consumption for the reason of climate protection? We will search the databases Medline (via PubMed), Scopus, Embase, Greenfile (via Ebsco) and PsynDex/CurrentContent/Agris (via Livivo) using a systematic search string. Studies from 2015 onwards, published in English, German, Danish or Dutch, will be included. We will include observational studies, qualitative studies, intervention studies (if they include surveys) and reviews. Data will be summarised in a narrative synthesis, comprising methods, population characteristics, meat type under study, indicators measured and limitations. Key findings will be grouped according to the research questions. This scoping review will help clarify the role of climate protection in individual reduction of meat consumption and identify research gaps in this field.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Formal ethical approval is not required, as primary data will not be collected in this study. Findings of this scoping review will be presented at scientific conferences and published in a peer-reviewed journal.<br><br>TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/MWB85.}, }
@article {pmid37072206, year = {2023}, author = {Deering, S}, title = {Clinical public health, climate change, and aging.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {69}, number = {4}, pages = {233-235}, pmid = {37072206}, issn = {1715-5258}, mesh = {Humans ; *Public Health ; *Climate Change ; Aging ; }, }
@article {pmid37071365, year = {2023}, author = {Bashir, J and Romshoo, SA}, title = {Bias-corrected climate change projections over the Upper Indus Basin using a multi-model ensemble.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {23}, pages = {64517-64535}, pmid = {37071365}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {DST/CCP/COE/183/2019(C)//Department of science and Technology/ ; SR/WOS-A/EA-20/2018 (G)//Department of Science and Technology (DST)/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; China ; Forecasting ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The study projects climate over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), covering geographic areas in India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China, under the two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), viz., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by the late twenty-first century using the best-fit climate model validated against the climate observations from eight meteorological stations. GFDL CM3 performed better than the other five evaluated climate models in simulating the climate of the UIB. The model bias was significantly reduced by the Aerts and Droogers statistical downscaling method, and the projections overall revealed a significant increase in temperature and a slight increase in precipitation across the UIB comprising of Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus sub-basins. According to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the temperature and precipitation in the Jhelum are projected to increase by 3 °C and 5.2 °C and 0.8% and 3.4% respectively by the late twenty-first century. The temperature and precipitation in the Chenab are projected to increase by 3.5 °C and 4.8 °C and 8% and 8.2% respectively by the late twenty-first century under the two scenarios. The temperature and precipitation in the Indus are projected to increase by 4.8 °C and 6.5 °C and 2.6% and 8.7% respectively by the late twenty-first century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The late twenty-first century projected climate would have significant impacts on various ecosystem services and products, irrigation and socio-hydrological regimes, and various dependent livelihoods. It is therefore hoped that the high-resolution climate projections would be useful for impact assessment studies to inform policymaking for climate action in the UIB.}, }
@article {pmid37071352, year = {2023}, author = {Pickson, RB and Gui, P and Chen, A and Boateng, E}, title = {Examining the impacts of climate change and political instability on rice production: empirical evidence from Nigeria.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {23}, pages = {64617-64636}, pmid = {37071352}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Oryza ; Climate Change ; Nigeria ; Agriculture/methods ; Farms ; }, abstract = {The Nigerian government is committed to sustaining rice production to meet national demand. Nevertheless, political tension and climate-induced stressors remain crucial constraints in achieving policy targets. This study examines whether climate change and political instability significantly threaten rice production in Nigeria. First, we employed nonparametric methods to estimate the country's rainfall and temperature trends between 1980Q1 and 2015Q4. Second, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to examine the effects of climate change and political instability on rice production. The results show that while temperature has an increasing pattern, rainfall exhibits no significant trend. The findings from the ARDL estimate reveal that rice production responds negatively to temperature changes but is less sensitive to changes in rainfall. In addition, political instability adversely affects rice production in Nigeria. We argue that Nigeria's slow growth in rice production can be traced back to the impact of climate change and political tension in rice farming areas. As a result, reducing the overall degree of conflict to ensure political stability is critical to boosting the country's self-sufficiency in rice production. We also recommend that farmers be supported and trained to adopt improved rice varieties less prone to extreme climate events while supporting them with irrigation facilities to facilitate rice production.}, }
@article {pmid37070994, year = {2023}, author = {Brown, M and Schoen, JH and Gross, J and Omary, RA and Hanneman, K}, title = {Climate Change and Radiology: Impetus for Change and a Toolkit for Action.}, journal = {Radiology}, volume = {307}, number = {4}, pages = {e230229}, doi = {10.1148/radiol.230229}, pmid = {37070994}, issn = {1527-1315}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Radiology/methods ; Radiography ; Delivery of Health Care ; Radiologists ; }, abstract = {This special report discusses the importance of climate change for health care and radiology. The impact of climate change on human health and health equity, the contribution of health care and medical imaging to the climate crisis, and the impetus for change within radiology to create a more sustainable future are covered. The authors focus on actions and opportunities to address climate change in our role as radiologists. A toolkit highlights actions we can take toward a more sustainable future, linking each action with the expected impact and outcome. This toolkit includes a hierarchy of actions from first steps to advocating for system-level change. This includes actions we can take in our daily lives, in radiology departments and professional organizations, and in our relationships with vendors and industry partners. As radiologists, we are adept at managing rapid technological change, which makes us ideally suited to lead these initiatives. Alignment of incentives and synergies with health systems are highlighted given that many of the proposed strategies also result in cost savings.}, }
@article {pmid37070860, year = {2023}, author = {Jaff, D}, title = {Conflict, environmental destruction and climate change: a tragedy in Iraq that demands action.}, journal = {Medicine, conflict, and survival}, volume = {39}, number = {2}, pages = {162-171}, doi = {10.1080/13623699.2023.2200346}, pmid = {37070860}, issn = {1362-3699}, mesh = {Humans ; Iraq ; *Climate Change ; *Warfare ; }, }
@article {pmid37070402, year = {2023}, author = {Scherer, L and Boom, HA and Barbarossa, V and van Bodegom, PM}, title = {Climate change threats to the global functional diversity of freshwater fish.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {13}, pages = {3781-3793}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16723}, pmid = {37070402}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Fresh Water ; Fishes ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity show strong spatial variability, highlighting the importance of a global perspective. While previous studies on biodiversity mostly focused on species richness, functional diversity, which is a better predictor of ecosystem functioning, has received much less attention. This study aims to comprehensively assess climate change threats to the functional diversity of freshwater fish across the world, considering three complementary metrics-functional richness, evenness and divergence. We built on existing spatially explicit projections of geographical ranges for 11,425 riverine fish species as affected by changes in streamflow and water temperature extremes at four warming levels (1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.2°C and 4.5°C). To estimate functional diversity, we considered the following four continuous, morphological and physiological traits: relative head length, relative body depth, trophic level and relative growth rate. Together, these traits cover five ecological functions. We treated missing trait values in two different ways: we either removed species with missing trait values or imputed them. Depending on the warming level, 6%-25% of the locations globally face a complete loss of functional diversity when assuming no dispersal (6%-17% when assuming maximal dispersal), with hotspots in the Amazon and Paraná River basins. The three facets of functional diversity do not always follow the same pattern. Sometimes, functional richness is not yet affected despite species loss, while functional evenness and divergence are already reducing. Other times, functional richness reduces, while functional evenness and/or divergence increase instead. The contrasting patterns of the three facets of functional diversity show their complementarity among each other and their added value compared to species richness. With increasing climate change, impacts on freshwater communities accelerate, making early mitigation critically important.}, }
@article {pmid37068073, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, H and Wu, YC and Cheng, CC and Teng, CY}, title = {Effect of climate change-induced water-deficit stress on long-term rice yield.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {e0284290}, pmid = {37068073}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Oryza ; Weather ; Agriculture/methods ; Water ; }, abstract = {The water requirements of crops should be investigated to improve the efficiency of water use in irrigated agriculture. The main objective of the study was to assess the effects of water deficit stress on rice yields throughout the major cropping seasons. We analyzed rice yield data from field experiments in Taiwan over the period 1925-2019 to evaluate the effects of water-deficit stress on the yield of 12 rice cultivars. Weather data, including air temperatures, humidity, wind speed, sunshine duration, and rainfall were used to compute the temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration and crop water status (CWS) during rice growth stages. A negative CWS value indicates that the crop is water deficient, and a smaller value represents a lower water level (greater water-deficit stress) in crop growth. The CWS on rice growth under the initial, crop development, reproductive, and maturity stages declined by 96.9, 58.9, 24.7, and 198.6 mm in the cool cropping season and declined by 63.7, 18.1, 8.6, and 3.8 mm in the warm cropping season during the 95 years. The decreasing trends in the CWSs were used to represent the increases in water-deficit stress. The total yield change related to water-deficit stress on the cultivars from 1925-1944, 1945-1983, and 1996-2019 under the initial, crop development, reproductive, and maturity stages are -56.1 to 37.0, -77.5 to -12.3, 11.2 to 19.8, and -146.4 to 39.1 kg ha-1 in the cool cropping season and -16.5 to 8.2, -12.9 to 8.1, -2.3 to 9.0, and -9.3 to 8.0 in the warm cropping season, respectively. Our results suggest that CWS may be a determining factor for rice to thrive during the developmental stage, but not the reproductive stage. In addition, the effect of water-deficit stress has increasingly affected the growth of rice in recent years.}, }
@article {pmid37065704, year = {2023}, author = {López-Tirado, J and Gonzalez-Andújar, JL}, title = {Spatial weed distribution models under climate change: a short review.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e15220}, pmid = {37065704}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Humans ; *Introduced Species ; *Climate Change ; Commerce ; Internationality ; Europe ; Plant Weeds ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a concern worldwide that could trigger many changes with severe consequences. Since human demography is steadily increasing, agriculture has to be constantly investigated to aim at improving its efficiency. Weeds play a key role in this task, especially in the recent past and at present, when new introductions have been favoured by a rise in tourism and international trade. To obtain knowledge relating weeds and their behaviour to climate change, species distribution models (SDMs) have also increased recently. In this work, we have reviewed some articles published since 2017 on modelled weeds, aiming to give a response to, among other things, the species most studied, the scale and location of the studies, the algorithms used and validation parameters, global change scenarios, types of variables, and the sources from which the data were collected. Fifty-nine articles were selected to be reviewed, with maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and area under the curve (AUC) being the most popular software and validation processes. Environmental and topographic variables were considered above pedological and anthropogenic ones. Europe was the continent and China, the USA, and India the countries most studied. In this review, it was found that the number of published articles between developed and developing countries is unbalanced and comes out in favour of the former. The current knowledge on this topic can be considered to be good not enough, especially in developing countries with high population densities. The more knowledge we can obtain, the better our understanding is of how to deal with this issue, which is a worldwide preoccupation.}, }
@article {pmid37061184, year = {2023}, author = {Jego, L and Li, R and Roudine, S and Ma, CS and Le Lann, C and Ma, G and van Baaren, J}, title = {Parasitoid ecology along geographic gradients: lessons for climate change studies.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {57}, number = {}, pages = {101036}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2023.101036}, pmid = {37061184}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; *Ecology ; Altitude ; Geography ; }, abstract = {One method to study the impact of climate change on host-parasitoid relationships is to compare populations along geographical gradients in latitude, altitude, or longitude. Indeed, temperatures, which vary along geographic gradients, directly shape the life traits of parasitoids and indirectly shift their populations through trophic interactions with hosts and plants. We explored the pros and cons of using these comparisons along gradients. We highlighted that the longitudinal gradients, although understudied, are well correlated to winter warming and summer heat waves and we draw attention to the impact of the increase in extreme events, which will probably be the determining parameters of the effect of climate change on host-parasitoid relationships.}, }
@article {pmid37059149, year = {2023}, author = {Mukhtar, H and Wunderlich, RF and Muzaffar, A and Ansari, A and Shipin, OV and Cao, TN and Lin, YP}, title = {Soil microbiome feedback to climate change and options for mitigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {882}, number = {}, pages = {163412}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163412}, pmid = {37059149}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Soil Microbiology ; *Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Hot Temperature ; Soil Erosion ; Bioengineering ; Bacteria/genetics ; }, abstract = {Microbes are a critical component of soil ecosystems, performing crucial functions in biogeochemical cycling, carbon sequestration, and plant health. However, it remains uncertain how their community structure, functioning, and resultant nutrient cycling, including net GHG fluxes, would respond to climate change at different scales. Here, we review global and regional climate change effects on soil microbial community structure and functioning, as well as the climate-microbe feedback and plant-microbe interactions. We also synthesize recent studies on climate change impacts on terrestrial nutrient cycles and GHG fluxes across different climate-sensitive ecosystems. It is generally assumed that climate change factors (e.g., elevated CO2 and temperature) will have varying impacts on the microbial community structure (e.g., fungi-to-bacteria ratio) and their contribution toward nutrient turnover, with potential interactions that may either enhance or mitigate each other's effects. Such climate change responses, however, are difficult to generalize, even within an ecosystem, since they are subjected to not only a strong regional influence of current ambient environmental and edaphic conditions, historical exposure to fluctuations, and time horizon but also to methodological choices (e.g., network construction). Finally, the potential of chemical intrusions and emerging tools, such as genetically engineered plants and microbes, as mitigation strategies against global change impacts, particularly for agroecosystems, is presented. In a rapidly evolving field, this review identifies the knowledge gaps complicating assessments and predictions of microbial climate responses and hindering the development of effective mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid37058931, year = {2023}, author = {Leifeld, J}, title = {Carbon farming: Climate change mitigation via non-permanent carbon sinks.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {339}, number = {}, pages = {117893}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117893}, pmid = {37058931}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Carbon Sequestration ; *Carbon ; Climate Change ; Agriculture ; Farms ; }, abstract = {The role of carbon farming in agriculture or forestry to mitigate climate change is currently under intensive scientific discussion along with the gradual but progressing evolution of the voluntary carbon market and its certification. An overarching issue is the question of the permanence of terrestrial carbon sinks. In this comment, I discuss the climate benefit of non-permanent carbon sinks in light of a recent publication stating that carbon certificates fall short of expectations for climate change mitigation because of their non-permanence. The beneficial effect of short-lived sinks is real and quantifiable, and this understanding is applicable within ex ante biophysical discounting, which has the potential to improve the trustworthiness of climate change mitigation via carbon farming.}, }
@article {pmid37058282, year = {2023}, author = {Kubisch, EL and Fernández, JB and Ibargüengoytía, NR}, title = {Thermophysiological plasticity could buffer the effects of global warming on a Patagonian lizard.}, journal = {Journal of experimental zoology. Part A, Ecological and integrative physiology}, volume = {339}, number = {6}, pages = {590-601}, doi = {10.1002/jez.2702}, pmid = {37058282}, issn = {2471-5646}, mesh = {Animals ; Global Warming ; *Lizards/physiology ; Temperature ; *Running/physiology ; Acclimatization/physiology ; }, abstract = {Ecophysiological plasticity determines, to a great extent, the geographic distribution and the vulnerability of ectotherms to climate change. We studied the relationship between locomotor performance and temperature of Liolaemus elongatus lizards in three populations in northern Patagonia, Argentina, differing in thermal characteristics. We related the thermophysiological and locomotor performance parameters with the environmental conditions currently experienced by these populations and analyzed whether the expected increment of the environmental temperature due to climate change could affect these vital traits. We also determined, for one of the populations, the effects of 30 acclimation days at two temperature treatments (22°C and 30°C) on running speed, thermal preference in the laboratory (Tpref), panting threshold, and minimum critical temperature. We found that L. elongatus, despite the differences in environmental temperatures among the three sites, exhibited maximum speed at similar temperatures (optimum temperature for locomotor performance; To). The southern populations currently experience temperatures below that required to reach their maximum locomotor performance while the northernmost population is threatened by peaks of high temperatures that exceed the To . Therefore, global warming could diminish lizards' running performance in northern populations and lizards may spend more time refuging and less time on other activities such as feeding, territory defense, and dispersion. However, we show evidence of plasticity in L. elongatus locomotor performance when acclimated at high temperatures resulting in a potential advantage to cushion the effect of the rising environmental temperatures expected during climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37057656, year = {2023}, author = {Kline, O and Prunicki, M}, title = {Climate change impacts on children's respiratory health.}, journal = {Current opinion in pediatrics}, volume = {35}, number = {3}, pages = {350-355}, doi = {10.1097/MOP.0000000000001253}, pmid = {37057656}, issn = {1531-698X}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Child Health ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review examines the impact of climate change on the respiratory health of children, with a focus on temperature, humidity, air pollution, and extreme weather events. Climate change is considered the greatest health threat of our time, and children are especially at risk. This review is timely and relevant as it provides an overview of the current literature on the effects of climate change on children's respiratory health, and the implications of these findings for clinical practice and research.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: The findings of this review suggest that climate change has a significant impact on children's respiratory health, with temperature, humidity, air pollution, and extreme weather events being key contributory factors. Increases in extreme weather events such as heatwaves, wildfires, floods, droughts, hurricanes and dust storms all cause the health of children's respiratory system to be at increased risk.<br><br>SUMMARY: The findings of this review suggest that climate change has a significant impact on children's respiratory health, and that mitigation and adaptation strategies are necessary to protect children from the harmful effects of climate change and improve their respiratory health. Overall, a comprehensive and integrated approach is necessary to protect children from the increasing impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37056691, year = {2023}, author = {Potticary, AL and Otto, HW and McHugh, JV and Moore, AJ}, title = {Spatiotemporal variation in the competitive environment, with implications for how climate change may affect a species with parental care.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e9972}, pmid = {37056691}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Burying beetles of the genus Nicrophorus have become a model for studying the evolution of complex parental care in laboratory studies. Nicrophorus species depend on small vertebrate carcasses to breed, which they process and provision to their begging offspring. However, vertebrate carcasses are highly sought after by a wide variety of species and so competition is expected to be critical to the evolution of parental care. Despite this, the competitive environment for Nicrophorus is rarely characterized in the wild and remains a missing factor in laboratory studies. Here, we performed a systematic sampling of Nicrophorus orbicollis living near the southern extent of their range at Whitehall Forest in Clarke County, Georgia, USA. We determined the density of N. orbicollis and other necrophilous species that may affect the availability of this breeding resource through interference or exploitation competition. In addition, we characterize body size, a key trait involved in competitive ability, for all Nicrophorus species at Whitehall Forest throughout the season. Finally, we compare our findings to other published natural history data for Nicrophorines. We document a significantly longer active season than was observed 20 years previously at Whitehall Forest for both N. orbicollis and Nicrophorus tomentosus, potentially due to climate change. As expected, the adult body size of N. orbicollis was larger than N. tomentosus, the only other Nicrophorus species that was captured in 2022 at Whitehall Forest. The other most prevalent insects captured included species in the families Staphylinidae, Histeridae, Scarabaeidae, and Elateridae, which may act as competitors or predators of Nicrophorus young. Together, our results indicate significant variation in intra- and interspecific competition relative to populations within the N. orbicollis range. These findings suggest that the competitive environment shows extensive spatiotemporal variation, providing the basis to make predictions for how ecology may influence parenting in this species.}, }
@article {pmid37056028, year = {2023}, author = {Li, WB and Yang, PP and Xia, DP and Li, M and Li, JH}, title = {Current distribution of two species of Chinese macaques (Macaca arctoides and Macaca thibetana) and the possible influence of climate change on future distribution.}, journal = {American journal of primatology}, volume = {85}, number = {6}, pages = {e23493}, doi = {10.1002/ajp.23493}, pmid = {37056028}, issn = {1098-2345}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Macaca ; *Macaca arctoides ; Animal Distribution ; }, abstract = {Predicting the spatial distribution of species and suitable areas under global climate change could provide a reference for species conservation and long-term management strategies. Macaca thibetana and Macaca arctoides are two endangered species of Chinese macaques. However, limited information is available on their distribution, and their habitat needs lack proper assessment due to complicated taxonomy and less research attention. In recent years, scholars widely used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the impact of global climate and certain environmental factors on species distribution. Therefore, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of both macaque species under six climate change scenarios using occurrence and high-resolution ecological data. We identified climatic factors, elevation, and land cover that shape their distribution range and determined shifts in their habitat range. The results demonstrated that temperature range, annual precipitation, forest land cover, and temperature seasonality, including the precipitation of the driest month are the main factors affecting their distribution. Currently, M. thibetana is mainly concentrated in central, eastern, southern, and southwestern China, and M. arctoides is mainly concentrated in three provinces (Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong) in southern China. The MaxEnt model predicted that the suitable habitat for both species will increase with increased greenhouse emission scenarios. We also found that with the further increase in greenhouse emissions M. thibetana is expected to migrate to western China, and M. arctoides is expected to migrate to western or eastern China. This reinterpretation of the distribution of M. thibetana and M. arctoides in China, and predicted potential suitable habitat and possible migration direction, may provide new insights into the future conservation and management of these two species.}, }
@article {pmid37055362, year = {2023}, author = {Alibudbud, R}, title = {Gender in Climate Change: Safeguarding LGBTQ+ Mental Health in the Philippine Climate Change Response From a Minority Stress Perspective.}, journal = {Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi}, volume = {56}, number = {2}, pages = {196-199}, pmid = {37055362}, issn = {2233-4521}, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Climate Change ; Philippines/epidemiology ; *Sexual and Gender Minorities/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Health Status Disparities ; Vulnerable Populations ; *Mental Disorders/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Social Discrimination ; }, abstract = {Climate-related events unevenly affect society, worsening mental health disparities among vulnerable populations. This paper highlights that lesbians, gays, bisexuals, transgender, queers, and other individuals identifying as sexual and gender minorities (LGBTQ+) could be considered a climate-vulnerable population in the Philippines, one of the most climate-vulnerable countries. As such, this paper elucidated that LGBTQ+ Filipinos can be marginalized in climate response efforts due to their sexual orientation and gender minority identities. According to the minority stress theory, discrimination against LGBTQ+ individuals may predispose them to mental health problems. Thus, there is a need to institute an LGBTQ+ inclusive mental health response for climate-related events to address discrimination against LGBTQ+ individuals and uphold their mental health.}, }
@article {pmid37054799, year = {2023}, author = {Dias, M and Paula, JR and Pousão-Ferreira, P and Casal, S and Cruz, R and Cunha, SC and Rosa, R and Marques, A and Anacleto, P and Maulvault, AL}, title = {Combined effects of climate change and BDE-209 dietary exposure on the behavioural response of the white seabream, Diplodus sargus.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {881}, number = {}, pages = {163400}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163400}, pmid = {37054799}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Sea Bream ; Climate Change ; Dietary Exposure ; Ecosystem ; *Perciformes ; }, abstract = {Decabromodiphenyl-ether (BDE-209) is a persistent organic pollutant ubiquitously found in marine environments worldwide. Even though this emerging chemical contaminant is described as highly toxic, bioaccumulative and biomagnifiable, limited studies have addressed the ecotoxicological implications associated with its exposure in non-target marine organisms, particularly from a behavioural standpoint. Alongside, seawater acidification and warming have been intensifying their impacts on marine ecosystems over the years, compromising species welfare and survival. BDE-209 exposure as well as seawater acidification and warming are known to affect fish behaviour, but information regarding their interactive effects is not available. In this study, long-term effects of BDE-209 contamination, seawater acidification and warming were studied on different behavioural traits of Diplodus sargus juveniles. Our results showed that D. sargus exhibited a marked sensitivity in all the behaviour responses after dietary exposure to BDE-209. Fish exposed to BDE-209 alone revealed lower awareness of a risky situation, increased activity, less time spent within the shoal, and reversed lateralization when compared to fish from the Control treatment. However, when acidification and/or warming were added to the equation, behavioural patterns were overall altered. Fish exposed to acidification alone exhibited increased anxiety, being less active, spending more time within the shoal, while presenting a reversed lateralization. Finally, fish exposed to warming alone were more anxious and spent more time within the shoal compared to those of the Control treatment. These novel findings not only confirm the neurotoxicological attributes of brominated flame retardants (like BDE-209), but also highlight the relevance of accounting for the effects of abiotic variables (e.g. pH and seawater temperature) when investigating the impacts of environmental contaminants on marine life.}, }
@article {pmid37054776, year = {2023}, author = {Balakrishnan, B and Callahan, SJ and Cherian, SV and Subramanian, A and Sarkar, S and Bhatt, N and Scholand, MB}, title = {Climate Change for the Pulmonologist: A Focused Review.}, journal = {Chest}, volume = {164}, number = {4}, pages = {963-974}, doi = {10.1016/j.chest.2023.04.009}, pmid = {37054776}, issn = {1931-3543}, mesh = {Humans ; *Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Allergens/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Pulmonologists/education ; *Lung Diseases/diagnosis/etiology/prevention &amp; control/therapy ; }, abstract = {Climate change adversely impacts global health. Increasingly, temperature variability, inclement weather, declining air quality, and growing food and clean water supply insecurities threaten human health. Earth's temperature is projected to increase up to 6.4 °C by the end of the 21st century, exacerbating the threat. Public and health care professionals, including pulmonologists, perceive the detrimental effects of climate change and air pollution and support efforts to mitigate its effects. In fact, evidence is strong that premature cardiopulmonary death is associated with air pollution exposure via inhalation through the respiratory system, which functions as a portal of entry. However, little guidance is available for pulmonologists in recognizing the effects of climate change and air pollution on the diverse range of pulmonary disorders. To educate and mitigate risk for patients competently, pulmonologists must be armed with evidence-based findings of the impact of climate change and air pollution on specific pulmonary diseases. Our goal is to provide pulmonologists with the background and tools to improve patients' health and to prevent adverse outcomes despite climate change-imposed threats. In this review, we detail current evidence of climate change and air pollution impact on a diverse range of pulmonary disorders. Knowledge enables a proactive and individualized approach toward prevention strategies for patients, rather than merely treating ailments reactively.}, }
@article {pmid37054459, year = {2023}, author = {Woodall, MJ and Ma, J and Emett, K and Hamblin, APE and Knowles, K and Lee, TH and Mitchell, W and Ofoia, WI and Topeto, LR and Dockerty, JD and Hancox, RJ}, title = {Investigating attitudes and insights into the global warming impact of inhalers.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {136}, number = {1573}, pages = {94-105}, pmid = {37054459}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {Humans ; *Global Warming ; New Zealand ; *Metered Dose Inhalers ; Dry Powder Inhalers ; Carbon Footprint ; Administration, Inhalation ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Inhalers are commonly used in the management of respiratory diseases. The propellants used in pressurised metered dose inhalers (pMDIs) are potent greenhouse gases and carry a substantial global warming potential. Dry powder inhalers (DPIs) are propellant-free alternatives that have fewer consequences on the environment, while being equally effective. In this study, we assessed patients' and clinicians' attitudes towards choosing inhalers that have a lesser environmental impact.<br><br>METHODS: Surveys of patients and practitioners were undertaken in primary and secondary care settings in Dunedin and Invercargill. Fifty-three patient and 16 practitioner responses were obtained.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixty-four percent of patients were using pMDIs, while 53% were using DPIs. Sixty-nine percent of patients believed that the environment is an important consideration when switching inhalers. Sixty-three percent of practitioners were aware of the global warming potential of inhalers. Despite this, 56% of practitioners predominantly prescribe or recommend pMDIs. The 44% of practitioners who mostly prescribe DPIs were more comfortable doing so based on environmental impact alone.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Most respondents believe global warming is an important issue and would consider changing their inhaler to a more environmentally friendly type. Many people were not aware that pressurised metered dose inhalers have a substantial carbon footprint. Greater awareness of their environmental impacts may encourage the use of inhalers with lower global warming potential.}, }
@article {pmid37053316, year = {2023}, author = {Yuan, X and Wang, Y and Ji, P and Wu, P and Sheffield, J and Otkin, JA}, title = {A global transition to flash droughts under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {380}, number = {6641}, pages = {187-191}, doi = {10.1126/science.abn6301}, pmid = {37053316}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Flash droughts have occurred frequently worldwide, with a rapid onset that challenges drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities. However, there is no consensus on whether flash droughts have become the new normal because slow droughts may also increase. In this study, we show that drought intensification rates have sped up over subseasonal time scales and that there has been a transition toward more flash droughts over 74% of the global regions identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Extreme Events during the past 64 years. The transition is associated with amplified anomalies of evapotranspiration and precipitation deficit caused by anthropogenic climate change. In the future, the transition is projected to expand to most land areas, with larger increases under higher-emission scenarios. These findings underscore the urgency for adapting to faster-onset droughts in a warmer future.}, }
@article {pmid37052622, year = {2023}, author = {Bernhardt, JM and Breakey, S and Cox, R and Olayinka, O and Quinn, L and Simmonds, K and Atkin, K and Sipe, M and Nicholas, PK}, title = {Development of a screening tool for assessment of climate change-related heat illness in the clinical setting.}, journal = {Journal of the American Association of Nurse Practitioners}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {291-298}, pmid = {37052622}, issn = {2327-6924}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; United States ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Adolescent ; Climate Change ; Quality of Life ; *Extreme Heat ; Risk Factors ; *Heat Stress Disorders/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Extreme heat contributes to heat-related illnesses resulting from heat intolerance, which is the inability to maintain a thermal balance to tolerate heat stress. In the United States, heat-related mortality for older persons has almost doubled in the past 20 years. Other populations at risk for heat-related illness (HRI) include children, pregnant people, those who work outside, young people participating in outdoor sports, and at-risk populations such as Black, indigenous, and populations of color. The classic heat tolerance test used for decades monitoring physiological responses to repetitive motions is impractical across large and potentially health challenged populations and does not identify environmental or social factors or specific vulnerable populations. To address this issue, we developed a heat-related illness screening tool (HIST) to identify individuals at risk for HRI morbidity and mortality based on their physical, environmental, and social vulnerabilities with an emphasis on populations of concern. The HIST has the potential to be used as routine clinical screening in the same way as other commonly used screening tools. Heat intolerance affects patient outcomes and quality of life; therefore, early screening with a simple, easy-to-administer screening tool such as the HIST can identify people at risk and refer them to services that address heat exposure and/or create safety nets to prevent heat-related illnesses.}, }
@article {pmid37050185, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, M and Hu, Z and Wang, Y and Zhao, W}, title = {Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Suitable Planting Areas for Pyrus Species under Climate Change in China.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {37050185}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2018YFC1508902//Zhuowei Hu/ ; 41971381//Zhuowei Hu/ ; }, abstract = {Planting suitability determines the distribution and yield of crops in a given region which can be greatly affected by climate change. In recent years, many studies have shown that carbon dioxide fertilization effects increase the productivity of temperate deciduous fruit trees under a changing climate, but the potential risks to fruit tree planting caused by a reduction in suitable planting areas are rarely reported. In this study, Maxent was first used to investigate the spatial distribution of five Pyrus species in China, and the consistency between the actual production area and the modeled climatically suitable area under the current climatic conditions were determined. In addition, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, three climate models were used to simulate the change in suitable area and the migration trend for different species under different emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The results showed that the suitable area for pear was highly consistent with the actual main production area under current climate conditions. The potential planting areas of P. ussuriensis showed a downward trend under all emission paths from 2020 to 2100; other species showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing or slowing down and this growth effect was the most obvious in 2020-2040. Except for P. pashia, other species showed a migration trend toward a high latitude, and the trend was more prominent under the high emission path. Our results emphasize the response difference between species to climate change, and the method of consistency analysis between suitable planting area and actual production regions cannot only evaluate the potential planting risk but also provide a reasonable idea for the accuracy test of the modeled results. This work has certain guiding and reference significance for the protection of pear germplasm resources and the prediction of yield.}, }
@article {pmid37048347, year = {2023}, author = {Nechita, C and Iordache, AM and Voica, C and Costinel, D and Botoran, OR and Popescu, DI and Șuvar, NS}, title = {Evaluating the Chemical Hazards in Wine Production Associated with Climate Change.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {37048347}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {9N/2019, PN 19110303//Ministerul Cercet&#x103;rii &#x219;i Inov&#x103;rii/ ; 12N/2019, PN 19070502//Ministerul Cercet&#x103;rii &#x219;i Inov&#x103;rii/ ; }, abstract = {The climate warming trend challenges the chemical risk associated with wine production worldwide. The present study investigated the possible difference between chemical wine profile during the drought year 2012 compared to the post-drought year 2013. Toxic metals (Cd and Pb), microelements (Mn, Ni, Zn, Al, Ba, and Cu), macroelements (Na, Mg, K, Ca, and P), isotopic ratios ([87]Sr/[86]Sr and [206]Pb/[207]Pb), stable isotopes (δ[18]O, δ[13]C, (D/H)I, and (D/H)II), and climatic data were analyzed. The multivariate technique, correlation analysis, factor analysis, partial least squares-discriminant analysis, and hierarchical cluster analysis were used for data interpretation. The maximum temperature had a maximum difference when comparing data year apart. Indeed, extreme droughts were noted in only the spring and early summer of 2012 and in 2013, which increased the mean value of ground frost days. The microelements, macroelements, and Pb presented extreme effects in 2012, emphasizing more variability in terms of the type of wine. Extremely high Cd values were found in the wine samples analyzed, at up to 10.1 µg/L. The relationship between precipitation and δ[18]O from wine was complex, indicating grape formation under the systematic influence of the current year precipitation, and differences between years were noted. δ[13]C had disentangled values, with no differentiation between years, and when coupled with the deuterium-hydrogen ratio, it could sustain the hypothesis of possible adulteration. In the current analysis, the [87]Sr/[86]Sr showed higher values than in other Romanian studies. The temperature had a strong positive correlation with Pb, while the ground frost day frequency correlated with both Pb and Cd toxic elements in the wine. Other significant relationships were disclosed between the chemical properties of wine and climate data. The multivariate statistical analysis indicated that heat stress had significant importance in the chemical profile of the wine, and the ground frost exceeded the influence of water stress, especially in Transylvania.}, }
@article {pmid37045937, year = {2023}, author = {Yoshikawa, T and Koide, D and Yokomizo, H and Kim, JY and Kadoya, T}, title = {Assessing ecosystem vulnerability under severe uncertainty of global climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {5932}, pmid = {37045937}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Assessing the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of species, communities, and ecosystems is essential for successful conservation. Climate change, however, induces extreme uncertainty in various pathways of assessments, which hampers robust decision-making for conservation. Here, we developed a framework that allows us to quantify the level of acceptable uncertainty as a metric of ecosystem robustness, considering the uncertainty due to climate change. Under the framework, utilizing a key concept from info-gap decision theory, vulnerability is measured as the inverse of maximum acceptable uncertainty to fulfill the minimum required goal for conservation. We applied the framework to 42 natural forest ecosystems and assessed their acceptable uncertainties in terms of maintenance of species richness and forest functional type. Based on best-guess estimate of future temperature in various GCM models and RCP scenarios, and assuming that tree species survival is primarily determined by mean annual temperature, we performed simulations with increasing deviation from the best-guess temperature. Our simulations indicated that the acceptable uncertainty varied greatly among the forest plots, presumably reflecting the distribution of ecological traits and niches among species within the communities. Our framework provides acceptable uncertainty as an operational metric of ecosystem robustness under uncertainty, while incorporating both system properties and socioeconomic conditions. We argue that our framework can enhance social consensus building and decision-making in the face of the extreme uncertainty induced by global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37043912, year = {2023}, author = {Mazaris, AD and Dimitriadis, C and Papazekou, M and Schofield, G and Doxa, A and Chatzimentor, A and Turkozan, O and Katsanevakis, S and Lioliou, A and Abalo-Morla, S and Aksissou, M and Arcangeli, A and Attard, V and El Hili, HA and Atzori, F and Belda, EJ and Ben Nakhla, L and Berbash, AA and Bjorndal, KA and Broderick, AC and Camiñas, JA and Candan, O and Cardona, L and Cetkovic, I and Dakik, N and de Lucia, GA and Dimitrakopoulos, PG and Diryaq, S and Favilli, C and Fortuna, CM and Fuller, WJ and Gallon, S and Hamza, A and Jribi, I and Ben Ismail, M and Kamarianakis, Y and Kaska, Y and Korro, K and Koutsoubas, D and Lauriano, G and Lazar, B and March, D and Marco, A and Minotou, C and Monsinjon, JR and Naguib, NM and Palialexis, A and Piroli, V and Sami, K and Sönmez, B and Sourbès, L and Sözbilen, D and Vandeperre, F and Vignes, P and Xanthakis, M and Köpsel, V and Peck, MA}, title = {Priorities for Mediterranean marine turtle conservation and management in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {339}, number = {}, pages = {117805}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117805}, pmid = {37043912}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Turtles ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {As climate-related impacts threaten marine biodiversity globally, it is important to adjust conservation efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change. Translating scientific knowledge into practical management, however, is often complicated due to resource, economic and policy constraints, generating a knowledge-action gap. To develop potential solutions for marine turtle conservation, we explored the perceptions of key actors across 18 countries in the Mediterranean. These actors evaluated their perceived relative importance of 19 adaptation and mitigation measures that could safeguard marine turtles from climate change. Of importance, despite differences in expertise, experience and focal country, the perceptions of researchers and management practitioners largely converged with respect to prioritizing adaptation and mitigation measures. Climate change was considered to have the greatest impacts on offspring sex ratios and suitable nesting sites. The most viable adaptation/mitigation measures were considered to be reducing other pressures that act in parallel to climate change. Ecological effectiveness represented a key determinant for implementing proposed measures, followed by practical applicability, financial cost, and societal cost. This convergence in opinions across actors likely reflects long-standing initiatives in the Mediterranean region towards supporting knowledge exchange in marine turtle conservation. Our results provide important guidance on how to prioritize measures that incorporate climate change in decision-making processes related to the current and future management and protection of marine turtles at the ocean-basin scale, and could be used to guide decisions in other regions globally. Importantly, this study demonstrates a successful example of how interactive processes can be used to fill the knowledge-action gap between research and management.}, }
@article {pmid37043299, year = {2023}, author = {Fan, W and Zlatnik, MG}, title = {Climate Change and Pregnancy: Risks, Mitigation, Adaptation, and Resilience.}, journal = {Obstetrical &amp; gynecological survey}, volume = {78}, number = {4}, pages = {223-236}, pmid = {37043299}, issn = {1533-9866}, support = {P30 ES030284/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Child ; Female ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Pregnancy ; *Climate Change ; *Premature Birth ; Public Health ; Air Pollution ; Reproductive Health ; Environmental Exposure ; *Adaptation, Psychological ; *Resilience, Psychological ; *Pregnancy Complications/etiology ; }, abstract = {IMPORTANCE: Climate change is affecting the earth, resulting in more extreme temperatures and weather, rising sea levels, more frequent natural disasters, and displacement of populations of plants and animals, including people and insects. These changes affect food and housing security, vector-borne illnesses, and access to clean air and water, all of which influence human health.<br><br>EVIDENCE AND RESULTS: There are a number of adverse health outcomes linked to heat, air pollution from wildfires, stress from natural disasters, and other elements of climate change. Pregnant people are especially vulnerable to the health harms resulting from climate change, namely, preterm birth, small for gestational age, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and other adverse reproductive health and birth outcomes. Strategies to minimize these harms include mitigation and adaptation.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Physicians are in a unique position to protect the health of pregnant persons and children by advocating for policy changes that address climate change and providing clinical recommendations for patients to protect themselves from the health impacts of climate hazards.}, }
@article {pmid37043020, year = {2023}, author = {Chandu, N and Eldho, TI and Mondal, A}, title = {A regional scale impact and uncertainty assessment of climate change in the Western Ghats in India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {5}, pages = {555}, pmid = {37043020}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Humans ; Uncertainty ; *Climate Change ; Reproducibility of Results ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; India ; *Sexually Transmitted Diseases ; }, abstract = {The general circulation models (GCMs) and emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) have proven to be significantly functional in evaluating the impacts of climate change (CC) on hydrology, although their performance and accuracy varies on a regional scale. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the performance of five CMIP5 GCMs (CanESM2, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR) on a regional scale in the West Flowing River Basins-2 (WFRB-2) in India to model the impact of CC and its scenario uncertainty using reliability ensemble average (REA) method. For quantifying the results, the upper, middle and lower regions of WFRB-2 are separately analysed. The MPIMR and MPILR GCM model shows highest reliability factor range (0.3-0.6) in predicting the annual mean and annual maximum rainfall for most of the grids in the region. The GCM-simulated runoff using VIC (variable infiltration capacity) model is evaluated using statistical parameters such as root mean square error (RMSE), percentage bias (Pbias) and standard deviation (Std). The annual mean (maximum) runoff obtained using REA ensemble shows least RMSE, Pbias and Std values, i.e. 21.08%, 9.10 mm and 8.9 mm (6%, 39.1 mm, 39.1 mm), respectively for the middle region, which demonstrates higher reliability of GCM outputs in the flood-prone regions of WFRB-2. Furthermore, the future projection of annual maximum rainfall/runoff shows an increase of 50 mm/15 mm in the near future (2011-2040) for lower and 20 mm/6 mm for middle regions, which may cause flooding activities in the lower and middle region of WFRB-2.}, }
@article {pmid37042448, year = {2023}, author = {Potter, T and Jonker, TP}, title = {Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change for Birthing People and the Provider's Role.}, journal = {Journal of midwifery &amp; women's health}, volume = {68}, number = {3}, pages = {320-323}, doi = {10.1111/jmwh.13492}, pmid = {37042448}, issn = {1542-2011}, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Female ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; Parturition ; Health Personnel/psychology ; }, }
@article {pmid37041630, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, X and Jiang, Y and Wu, W and He, X and Wang, Z and Guan, Y and Xu, N and Chen, Q and Shen, Y and Cao, J}, title = {Cryptosporidiosis threat under climate change in China: prediction and validation of habitat suitability and outbreak risk for human-derived Cryptosporidium based on ecological niche models.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {35}, pmid = {37041630}, issn = {2049-9957}, support = {2021Y0213//the Research Projects of Shanghai Municipal Health Commission/ ; 81971969//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 82272369//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; GWV-10.1-XK13//the Three-Year Public Health Action Plan (2020-2022) of Shanghai/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Cryptosporidiosis ; *Cryptosporidium ; Ecosystem ; Disease Outbreaks ; China ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Cryptosporidiosis is a zoonotic intestinal infectious disease caused by Cryptosporidium spp., and its transmission is highly influenced by climate factors. In the present study, the potential spatial distribution of Cryptosporidium in China was predicted based on ecological niche models for cryptosporidiosis epidemic risk warning and prevention and control.<br><br>METHODS: The applicability of existing Cryptosporidium presence points in ENM analysis was investigated based on data from monitoring sites in 2011-2019. Cryptosporidium occurrence data for China and neighboring countries were extracted and used to construct the ENMs, namely Maxent, Bioclim, Domain, and Garp. Models were evaluated based on Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, Kappa, and True Skill Statistic coefficients. The best model was constructed using Cryptosporidium data and climate variables during 1986&#x2012;2010, and used to analyze the effects of climate factors on Cryptosporidium distribution. The climate variables for the period 2011&#x2012;2100 were projected to the simulation results to predict the ecological adaptability and potential distribution of Cryptosporidium in future in China.<br><br>RESULTS: The Maxent model (AUC&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.95, maximum Kappa&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.91, maximum TSS&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.00) fit better than the other three models and was thus considered the best ENM for predicting Cryptosporidium habitat suitability. The major suitable habitats for human-derived Cryptosporidium in China were located in some high-population density areas, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the lower reaches of the Yellow River, and the Huai and the Pearl River Basins (cloglog value of habitat suitability&#x2009;>&#x2009;0.9). Under future climate change, non-suitable habitats for Cryptosporidium will shrink, while highly suitable habitats will expand significantly (&#x3c7;[2]&#x2009;=&#x2009;76.641, P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.01; &#x3c7;[2]&#x2009;=&#x2009;86.836, P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.01), and the main changes will likely be concentrated in the northeastern, southwestern, and northwestern regions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The Maxent model is applicable in prediction of Cryptosporidium habitat suitability and can achieve excellent simulation results. These results suggest a current high risk of transmission and significant pressure for cryptosporidiosis prevention and control in China. Against a future climate change background, Cryptosporidium may gain more suitable habitats within China. Constructing a national surveillance network could facilitate further elucidation of the epidemiological trends and transmission patterns of cryptosporidiosis, and mitigate the associated epidemic and outbreak risks.}, }
@article {pmid37041289, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {A glacier's catastrophic collapse is linked to global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {616}, number = {7957}, pages = {414}, pmid = {37041289}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Ice Cover ; Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid37040931, year = {2023}, author = {Hu, AQ and Xie, XD and Gong, KJ and Hou, YH and Hu, JL}, title = {[Impact of Climate Change on Summer Ozone in China].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {44}, number = {4}, pages = {1801-1810}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.202203085}, pmid = {37040931}, issn = {0250-3301}, abstract = {Meteorological conditions have important impacts on surface ozone (O3) formation. To evaluate the influence of future climate change on O3 concentrations in different regions of China, this study employed the climate data from the community earth system model provided by the CMIP5 under the RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios to generate the initial and boundary conditions for the WRF model. Then, the dynamic downscaling WRF results were fed into a CMAQ model as meteorological fields with fixed emission data. Two 10-year periods (2006-2015 and 2046-2055) were selected in this study to discuss the impacts of climate change on O3. The results showed that climate change increased boundary layer height, mean temperature, and heatwave days in China during summer. Relative humidity decreased and wind speed near the surface showed no obvious change in the future. O3 concentration showed an increasing trend in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Sichuan Basin, and South China. The extreme value of O3 maximum daily 8-hour moving average (MDA8) showed an increasing trend, following the order of RCP8.5 (0.7 μg·m[-3])>RCP6.0 (0.3 μg·m[-3])>RCP4.5 (0.2 μg·m[-3]). The number of days exceeding the standard for summer O3 had a similar spatial distribution with the heatwave days in China. The increase in heatwave days led to the increase in O3 extreme pollution events, and the possibility of a long-lasting O3 pollution event will increase in China in the future.}, }
@article {pmid37039030, year = {2023}, author = {Wu, H and Nilsson, O}, title = {Threatened forests: As the Northern forests suffer from the effects of climate change, genomics has great potential to help them adapt: As the Northern forests suffer from the effects of climate change, genomics has great potential to help them adapt.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {e57106}, pmid = {37039030}, issn = {1469-3178}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Trees/genetics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is having dramatic effects on forest health and growth - tree genomics provides tools for understanding and mitigating these effects.}, }
@article {pmid37038592, year = {2023}, author = {Merz, E and Saberski, E and Gilarranz, LJ and Isles, PDF and Sugihara, G and Berger, C and Pomati, F}, title = {Disruption of ecological networks in lakes by climate change and nutrient fluctuations.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {389-396}, pmid = {37038592}, issn = {1758-678X}, abstract = {Climate change interacts with local processes to threaten biodiversity by disrupting the complex network of ecological interactions. While changes in network interactions drastically affect ecosystems, how ecological networks respond to climate change, in particular warming and nutrient supply fluctuations, is largely unknown. Here, using an equation-free modelling approach on monthly plankton community data in ten Swiss lakes, we show that the number and strength of plankton community interactions fluctuate and respond nonlinearly to water temperature and phosphorus. While lakes show system-specific responses, warming generally reduces network interactions, particularly under high phosphate levels. This network reorganization shifts trophic control of food webs, leading to consumers being controlled by resources. Small grazers and cyanobacteria emerge as sensitive indicators of changes in plankton networks. By exposing the outcomes of a complex interplay between environmental drivers, our results provide tools for studying and advancing our understanding of how climate change impacts entire ecological communities.}, }
@article {pmid37037767, year = {2023}, author = {Junejo, MH and Khan, S and Larik, EA and Akinkugbe, A and O'Toole, EA and Sethi, A}, title = {Flooding and Climate Change and its Effect on Skin Disease.}, journal = {The Journal of investigative dermatology}, volume = {143}, number = {8}, pages = {1348-1350}, doi = {10.1016/j.jid.2023.02.024}, pmid = {37037767}, issn = {1523-1747}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Floods ; *Skin Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid37036870, year = {2023}, author = {Puche, NJB and Kirschbaum, MUF and Viovy, N and Chabbi, A}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on the productivity and soil carbon stocks of managed grasslands.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {e0283370}, pmid = {37036870}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Soil ; *Carbon ; Ecosystem ; Grassland ; Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide ; }, abstract = {Rain-fed pastoral systems are tightly connected to meteorological conditions. It is, therefore, likely that climate change, including changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, precipitation and patterns of climate extremes, will greatly affect pastoral systems. However, exact impacts on the productivity and carbon dynamics of these systems are still poorly understood, particularly over longtime scales. The present study assesses the potential effects of future climatic conditions on productivity and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of mowed and rotationally grazed grasslands in France. We used the CenW ecosystem model to simulate carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in response to changes in environmental drivers and management practices. We first evaluated model responses to individual changes in each key meteorological variable to get better insights into the role and importance of each individual variable. Then, we used 3 sets of meteorological variables corresponding to 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for long-term model runs from 1975 to 2100. Finally, we used the same three RCPs to analyze the responses of modelled grasslands to extreme climate events. We found that increasing temperature slightly increased grasslands productivities but strongly reduced SOC stocks. A reduction in precipitation led to reductions of biomass and milk production but increased SOC. Conversely, doubling CO2 concentration strongly increased biomass and milk production and marginally reduced SOC. These SOC trends were unexpected. They arose because both increasing precipitation and CO2 increased photosynthetic carbon gain, but they had an even greater effect on the proportion of biomass that could be grazed. The amount of carbon remaining on site and able to contribute to SOC formation was actually reduced under both higher precipitation and CO2. The simulations under the three RCPs indicated that grassland productivity was increased, but that required higher N fertilizer application rates and also led to substantial SOC losses. We thus conclude that, while milk productivity may continue at current rates under climate change, or even increase slightly, there could be some soil C losses over the 21st century. In addition, under the highest-emission scenario, the increasing importance of extreme climate conditions (heat waves and droughts) might render conditions at our site in some years as unsuitable for milk production. It highlights the importance of tailoring farming practices to achieve the dual goals of maintaining agricultural production while safeguarding soil C stocks.}, }
@article {pmid37036450, year = {2023}, author = {Al Wazni, AB and Chapman, MV and Ansong, D and Tawfik, L}, title = {Climate Change, Fragility, and Child Mortality; Understanding the Role of Water Access and Diarrheal Disease Amongst Children Under Five During the MDG Era.}, journal = {Journal of prevention (2022)}, volume = {44}, number = {4}, pages = {409-419}, pmid = {37036450}, issn = {2731-5541}, mesh = {Humans ; Child ; *Water Supply ; *Water ; Child Mortality ; Climate Change ; Diarrhea/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The present study examined the influence of improvements to Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) infrastructure on rates of under-five mortality specifically from diarrheal disease amongst children in fragile states. The World Bank's Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals both include a specific target of reduction in preventable disease amongst children, as well as goal to improve WASH. Although gains have been made, children under the age of five remain particularly vulnerable to diarrheal mortality in states identified as fragile. Increasingly, climate change is placing undue pressure on states labeled fragile due to their inability to properly prepare for, or respond to, natural disasters that further compromise WASH development and water safety. The impact of climate change upon child health outcomes is neither direct nor linear and necessitates a linkage framework that can account for complex pathways between environmental pressures and public health outcomes. The World Health Organization's Drive Force-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action conceptual framework was used to draw the connections between seemingly disparate, and highly nuanced, environmental, and social measures. Using a multilevel hierarchical model, this analysis used a publicly available UNICEF data set that reported rates of mortality specifically from diarrheal disease amongst children age five and younger. All 171 formally recognized countries were included, which showed a decline in diarrheal disease over time when investments in WASH infrastructure are compared. As states experience increased pressure because of climate change, this area of intervention is key for immediate health and safety of children under-five, as well as assisting fragile states long-term as the move toward stability.}, }
@article {pmid37035783, year = {2023}, author = {The Lancet Regional Health-Western Pacific, }, title = {Water, climate change, and health in the Western Pacific Region.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {32}, number = {}, pages = {100753}, doi = {10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100753}, pmid = {37035783}, issn = {2666-6065}, }
@article {pmid37035024, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, L and Yuan, S and Wang, X and Yang, G and Xiangcheng, P and Yu, X and Wang, F and Huang, J and Peng, S}, title = {Productivity and global warming potential of direct seeding and transplanting in double-season rice of central China.}, journal = {Food and energy security}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {e419}, pmid = {37035024}, issn = {2048-3694}, abstract = {Labor and water scarcity requires crop establishment of double-season rice to be shifted from traditional transplanting to direct seeding. Owing to the limited thermal time, only ultrashort-duration cultivars of about 95 d can be used for direct-seeded, double-season rice (DDR) in central China. However, whether the shift in crop establishment of double-season rice can reduce greenhouse gas emissions without yield penalty remains unclear. Field experiments were conducted in Hubei province, central China with three treatments of crop establishment in the early and late seasons of 2017 and 2018. Treatments included DDR with ultrashort-duration cultivars (DDRU), transplanted double-season rice with ultrashort-duration cultivars (TDRU), or with widely grown cultivars which have short duration of about 110 d (TDRS). It was found that crop growth duration of DDRU was 6-20 days shorter than that of TDRU and TDRS, respectively. Ultrashort-duration cultivars under DDRU achieved 15.1 t ha[-1] of annual yield that was 9.4% higher than TDRU, and only 3.2% lower than TDRS. DDRU reduced the annual cumulative CH4 emission by 32.0-46.1%, but had no difference in N2O emission in comparison with TDRU and TDRS. The highest CO2 emission was TDRS followed by DDRU, and then TDRU. As a result, shifting from TDRU and TDRS to DDRU decreased global warming potential and yield-scaled greenhouse gas intensity by 28.9-53.2% and 20.7-63.8%, respectively. These findings suggest that DDR can be a promising alternative to labor- and water-intensive TDR in central China that offers important advantages in mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas emissions without sacrificing grain yield.}, }
@article {pmid37034244, year = {2023}, author = {Khalid, A and Babry, JA and Vearey, J and Zenner, D}, title = {Turning up the heat: A conceptual model for understanding the migration and health in the context of global climate change.}, journal = {Journal of migration and health}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {100172}, pmid = {37034244}, issn = {2666-6235}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The triangular relationship between climate change-related events, patterns of human migration and their implications for health is an important yet understudied issue. To improve understanding of this complex relationship, a comprehensive, interdisciplinary conceptual model will be useful. This paper investigates relationships between these factors and considers their impacts for affected populations globally.<br><br>METHODS: A desk review of key literature was undertaken. An open-ended questionnaire consisting of 11 items was designed focusing on three themes:&#xa0;predicting population migration by understanding key variables, health implications, and suggestions on policy and research. After using purposive sampling we selected nine experts, reflecting diverse regional and professional backgrounds directly related to our research focus area.&#xa0;All responses were thematically analysed and key themes from the survey were synthesised to construct the conceptual model focusing on describing the relationship between global climate change, migration and health implications and a second model focusing on actionable suggestions for organisations working in the field, academia and policymakers.<br><br>RESULTS: Key themes which constitute our conceptual model included: a description of migrant populations perceived to be at risk; health characteristics associated with different migratory patterns; health implications for both migrants and host populations; the responsibilities of global and local governance actors; and social and structural determinants of health. Less prominent themes were aspects related to slow-onset migratory patterns, voluntary stay, and voluntary migration.&#xa0;Actionable suggestions include an interdisciplinary and innovative approach to study the phenomenon for academicians, preparedness and globalized training and awareness for field organisations and migrant inclusive and climate sensitive approach for policymakers.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Contrary to common narratives, participants framed the impacts of climate change-related events on migration patterns and their health implications as non-linear and indirect, comprising many interrelated individual, social, cultural, demographic, geographical, structural, and political determinants. An understanding of these interactions in various contexts is essential for risk reduction and preventative measures. The way forward broadly includes inclusive and equity-based health services, improved and faster administrative systems, less restrictive (im)migration policies, globally trained staff, efficient and accessible research, and improved emergency response capabilities. The focus should be to increase preventative and adaptation measures in the face of any environmental changes and respond efficiently to different phases of migration to aim for better "health for all and promote universal well-being" (WHO) (World&#xa0;Health Organization 1999).}, }
@article {pmid37034242, year = {2023}, author = {Issa, R and Sarsour, A and Cullip, T and Toma, S and Ruyssen, I and Scheerens, C}, title = {Gaps and opportunities in the climate change, migration and health nexus: Insights from a questionnaire based study of practitioners and researchers.}, journal = {Journal of migration and health}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {100171}, pmid = {37034242}, issn = {2666-6235}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: : While climate change and migration are separately recognised as public health challenges, the combination of the two - climate change-induced migration which is predicted to increase through this century - requires further research to ensure population health needs are met. As such, this paper aims to identify initial gaps and opportunities in the nexus of climate change, migration and health research.<br><br>METHODS: : We conducted a questionnaire based study of academics and practitioners working in the fields of climate change, migration and health. Open-ended responses were thematically analysed.<br><br>RESULTS: : Responses from 72 practitioners collected in October 2021 were categorised into a thematic framework encompassing i) gaps and opportunities: across health care and outcomes, impact pathways between climate change and migration, most at risk groups (specific actors) and regions, and longitudinal perspectives on migrant journeys; alongside ii) methodological challenges; iii) ethical challenges, and iv) advancing research with better funding and collaboration. Broadly, findings suggested that research must clarify the interlinkages and drivers between climate change, migration, health (systems), and intersecting factors including the broader determinants of health. Study of the dynamics of migration needs to extend beyond the current focus of rural-urban migration and international migration into high income countries, to include internal displacement and immobile/ trapped populations. Research could better include considerations of vulnerable groups currently underrepresented, people with specific health needs, and focus more on most at-risk regions. Research methodology could be strengthened through better data and definitions, clear ethical guidelines, and increased funding and collaboration.<br><br>CONCLUSION: : This study describes gaps, challenges and needs within research on the nexus of climate change, migration and health, in acknowledgement of the complexity of studying across multiple intersecting factors. Working with complexity can be supported by using the framework and findings to support researchers grappling with these intersecting themes.}, }
@article {pmid37033200, year = {2023}, author = {Scoones, I}, title = {Livestock, methane, and climate change: The politics of global assessments.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e790}, pmid = {37033200}, issn = {1757-7780}, abstract = {The relationship between livestock production and climate change is the subject of hot debate, with arguments for major shifts in diets and a reduction in livestock production. This Perspective examines how global assessments of livestock-derived methane emissions are framed, identifying assumptions and data gaps that influence standard life-cycle analysis approaches. These include inadequate data due to a focus on industrial not extensive systems; errors arising due to inappropriate emission factors being applied; questions of how global warming potentials are derived for different greenhouse gases and debates about what baselines are appropriate. The article argues for a holistic systems approach that takes account of diverse livestock systems-both intensive and extensive-including both positive and negative impacts. In particular, the potential benefits of extensive livestock systems are highlighted, including supporting livelihoods, providing high-quality nutrition, enhancing biodiversity, protecting landscapes, and sequestering carbon. By failing to differentiate between livestock systems, global assessments may mislead. Inappropriate measurement, verification and reporting processes linked to global climate change policy may in turn result in interventions that can undermine the livelihoods of extensive livestock-keepers in marginal areas, including mobile pastoralists. In the politics of global assessments, certain interests promote framings of the livestock-climate challenge in favour of contained, intensive systems, and the conversion of extensive rangelands into conservation investments. Emerging from a narrow, aggregated scientific framing, global assessments therefore can have political consequences. A more disaggregated, nuanced approach is required if the future of food and climate change is to be effectively addressed. This article is categorized under:Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Assessing Climate Change in the Context of Other IssuesClimate and Development > Social Justice and the Politics of Development.}, }
@article {pmid37031955, year = {2023}, author = {Speck, CL and DiPietro Mager, NA and Mager, JN}, title = {Pharmacists' perception of climate change and its impact on health.}, journal = {Journal of the American Pharmacists Association : JAPhA}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {1162-1167}, doi = {10.1016/j.japh.2023.04.004}, pmid = {37031955}, issn = {1544-3450}, mesh = {Humans ; United States ; Pharmacists ; Climate Change ; *Community Pharmacy Services ; *Pharmacy ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Perception ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; Professional Role ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This study's primary objective was to assess pharmacists' knowledge and beliefs regarding climate change and health. Secondary objectives included assessing perceptions of its relevance to pharmacists and pharmacy practice as well as potential roles in mitigating climate change.<br><br>METHODS: An 18-question, anonymous survey was developed using questions adapted from previously published surveys that evaluated the general public's views of international issues and health professionals' perceptions of climate change and health, with additions specific to the Midwestern United States and Ohio. It was sent electronically to a random sample of 500 registered pharmacists living and working in Ohio. Data were analyzed using descriptive and nonparametric statistics.<br><br>RESULTS: Seventy pharmacists participated in the study. The majority of respondents (78.3%) believed climate change is happening. More respondents recognized climate change to be a great or moderate threat to human health worldwide (72.7%) than to patients in their community (45.4%; P < .001). A little more than half (54.5%) thought climate change was relevant to pharmacy practice. Perceived barriers that reduced willingness to communicate with the public about this topic included lack of time (73.4%) or knowledge (49.2%) and feeling that it would not make a difference (46.1%) or it is too controversial (35.4%). Respondents believed pharmacists could have the greatest impact through increasing sustainability in the health care system (48.5%).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Most respondents recognized that climate change is happening, is a threat to human health worldwide, and is relevant to pharmacy. However, many did not recognize its potential impact on their own patients or their role in climate action, showing a need for more education on this topic. As these are the first data collected among pharmacists in the United States, additional studies should be performed in other parts of the country as opinions may vary based on personal experience with or exposure to impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37030516, year = {2023}, author = {Alahmad, B and Khraishah, H and Althalji, K and Borchert, W and Al-Mulla, F and Koutrakis, P}, title = {Connections Between Air Pollution, Climate Change, and Cardiovascular Health.}, journal = {The Canadian journal of cardiology}, volume = {39}, number = {9}, pages = {1182-1190}, doi = {10.1016/j.cjca.2023.03.025}, pmid = {37030516}, issn = {1916-7075}, support = {T32 ES007069/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; Ecosystem ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects/analysis ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Globally, more people die from cardiovascular disease than any other cause. Climate change, through amplified environmental exposures, will promote and contribute to many noncommunicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease. Air pollution, too, is responsible for millions of deaths from cardiovascular disease each year. Although they may appear to be independent, interchangeable relationships and bidirectional cause-and-effect arrows between climate change and air pollution can eventually lead to poor cardiovascular health. In this topical review, we show that climate change and air pollution worsen each other, leading to several ecosystem-mediated effects. We highlight how increases in hot climates as a result of climate change have increased the risk of major air pollution events such as severe wildfires and dust storms. In addition, we show how altered atmospheric chemistry and changing patterns of weather conditions can promote the formation and accumulation of air pollutants: a phenomenon known as the climate penalty. We demonstrate these amplified environmental exposures and their associations to adverse cardiovascular health outcomes. The community of health professionals-and cardiologists, in particular-cannot afford to overlook the risks that climate change and air pollution bring to the public's health.}, }
@article {pmid37030273, year = {2023}, author = {Nag, R}, title = {A methodological framework for ranking communicable and non-communicable diseases due to climate change - A focus on Ireland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {880}, number = {}, pages = {163296}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163296}, pmid = {37030273}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Ireland ; *Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Public Health ; *Disasters ; }, abstract = {There is currently a significant global focus from the public health community on addressing climate-related public health issues. Globally we are witnessing geological shifts, extreme weather events, and the associated incidents that may have a significant human health impact. These include unseasonable weather, heavy rainfall, global sea-level rise and flooding, droughts, tornados, hurricanes, and wildfires. Climate change can have a direct and indirect health impact. The global challenge of climate change requires global preparedness for potential human health effects due to climate change, including vigilance for diseases carried by vectors, foodborne and waterborne diseases, deteriorated air quality, heat stress, mental health, and potential disasters. Therefore, it is essential to identify and prioritise the consequences of climate change to become future-ready. This proposed methodological framework aimed to develop an innovative modelling method using the 'Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY)', to rank potential direct and indirect human health impacts (communicable and non-communicable diseases) of climate change. This approach aims to ensure food safety, including water, in the wake of climate change. The novelty of the research will come from developing models with spatial mapping (Geographic Information System or GIS), which will also consider the influence of climatic variables, geographical differences in exposure and vulnerability and regulatory control on feed/food quality and abundance, range, growth, and survival of selected microorganisms. In addition, the outcome will identify and assess emerging modelling techniques and computational-efficient tools to overcome current limitations in climate change research on human health and food safety and to understand uncertainty propagation using the Monte Carlo simulation method for future climate change scenarios. It is envisaged that this research work will contribute significantly to developing a lasting network and critical mass on a national scale. It will also provide a template to implement from a core centre of excellence in other jurisdictions.}, }
@article {pmid37030088, year = {2023}, author = {Sri, A and Bhugra, D and Persaud, A and Tribe, R and Gnanapragasam, S and Castaldelli-Maia, JM and Torales, J and Ventriglio, A}, title = {Global mental health and climate change: A geo-psychiatry perspectiv.}, journal = {Asian journal of psychiatry}, volume = {84}, number = {}, pages = {103562}, doi = {10.1016/j.ajp.2023.103562}, pmid = {37030088}, issn = {1876-2026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Mental Health ; Ecosystem ; Human Rights ; *Psychiatry ; Global Health ; }, abstract = {Climate changes affect planet ecosystems, living beings, humans, including their lives, rights, economy, housing, migration, and both physical and mental health. Geo-psychiatry is a new discipline within the field of psychiatry studying the interface between various geo-political factors including geographical, political, economic, commercial and cultural determinants which affect society and psychiatry: it provides a holistic overview on global issues such as climate changes, poverty, public health and accessibility to health care. It identifies geopolitical factors and their effects at the international and national levels, as well as considers the politics of climate changes and poverty within this context. This paper then introduces the Compassion, Assertive Action, Pragmatism, and Evidence Vulnerability Index (CAPE-VI) as a global foreign policy index: CAPE-VI calculates how foreign aid should be prioritised for countries that are at risk or already considered to be fragile. These countries are characterised by various forms of conflict, disadvantaged by extremes of climate change, poverty, human rights abuses, and suffering from internal warfare or terrorism.}, }
@article {pmid37029765, year = {2023}, author = {Leites, L and Benito Garzón, M}, title = {Forest tree species adaptation to climate across biomes: Building on the legacy of ecological genetics to anticipate responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {17}, pages = {4711-4730}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16711}, pmid = {37029765}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {Project PEN04700//USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture and Hatch Appropriations/ ; Accession 1019151//USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture and Hatch Appropriations/ ; }, mesh = {*Trees/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Intraspecific variation plays a critical role in extant and future forest responses to climate change. Forest tree species with wide climatic niches rely on the intraspecific variation resulting from genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity to accommodate spatial and temporal climate variability. A centuries-old legacy of forest ecological genetics and provenance trials has provided a strong foundation upon which to continue building on this knowledge, which is critical to maintain climate-adapted forests. Our overall objective is to understand forest trees intraspecific responses to climate across species and biomes, while our specific objectives are to describe ecological genetics models used to build our foundational knowledge, summarize modeling approaches that have expanded the traditional toolset, and extensively review the literature from 1994 to 2021 to highlight the main contributions of this legacy and the new analyzes of provenance trials. We reviewed 103 studies comprising at least three common gardens, which covered 58 forest tree species, 28 of them with range-wide studies. Although studies using provenance trial data cover mostly commercially important forest tree species from temperate and boreal biomes, this synthesis provides a global overview of forest tree species adaptation to climate. We found that evidence for genetic adaptation to local climate is commonly present in the species studied (79%), being more common in conifers (87.5%) than in broadleaf species (67%). In 57% of the species, clines in fitness-related traits were associated with temperature variables, in 14% of the species with precipitation, and in 25% of the species with both. Evidence of adaptation lags was found in 50% of the species with range-wide studies. We conclude that ecological genetics models and analysis of provenance trial data provide excellent insights on intraspecific genetic variation, whereas the role and limits of phenotypic plasticity, which will likely determine the fate of extant forests, is vastly understudied.}, }
@article {pmid37029763, year = {2023}, author = {Pradhan, K and Ettinger, AK and Case, MJ and Hille Ris Lambers, J}, title = {Applying climate change refugia to forest management and old-growth restoration.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {13}, pages = {3692-3706}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16714}, pmid = {37029763}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DEB-1555883//National Science Foundation/ ; G17AC00218//U.S. Geological Survey Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Refugium ; Forests ; Biodiversity ; Plants ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Recent studies highlight the potential of climate change refugia (CCR) to support the persistence of biodiversity in regions that may otherwise become unsuitable with climate change. However, a key challenge in using CCR for climate resilient management lies in how CCR may intersect with existing forest management strategies, and subsequently influence how landscapes buffer species from negative impacts of warming climate. We address this challenge in temperate coastal forests of the Pacific Northwestern United States, where declines in the extent of late-successional forests have prompted efforts to restore old-growth forest structure. One common approach for doing so involves selectively thinning forest stands to enhance structural complexity. However, dense canopy is a key forest feature moderating understory microclimate and potentially buffering organisms from climate change impacts, raising the possibility that approaches for managing forests for old-growth structure may reduce the extent and number of CCR. We used remotely sensed vegetation indices to identify CCR in an experimental forest with control and thinned (restoration) treatments, and explored the influence of biophysical variables on buffering capacity. We found that remotely sensed vegetation indices commonly used to identify CCR were associated with understory temperature and plant community composition, and thus captured aspects of landscape buffering that might instill climate resilience and be of interest to management. We then examined the interaction between current restoration strategies and CCR, and found that selective thinning for promoting old-growth structure had only very minor, if any, effects on climatic buffering. In all, our study demonstrates that forest management approaches aimed at restoring old-growth structure through targeted thinning do not greatly decrease buffering capacity, despite a known link between dense canopy and CCR. More broadly, this study illustrates the value of using remote sensing approaches to identify CCR, facilitating the integration of climate change adaptation with other forest management approaches.}, }
@article {pmid37028673, year = {2023}, author = {Viveros Santos, I and Renaud-Gentié, C and Roux, P and Levasseur, A and Bulle, C and Deschênes, L and Boulay, AM}, title = {Prospective life cycle assessment of viticulture under climate change scenarios, application on two case studies in France.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {880}, number = {}, pages = {163288}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163288}, pmid = {37028673}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Viticulture needs to satisfy consumers' demands for environmentally sound grape and wine production while envisaging adaptation options to diminish the impacts of projected climate change on future productivity. However, the impact of climate change and the adoption of adaptation levers on the environmental impacts of future viticulture have not been assessed. This study evaluates the environmental performance of grape production in two French vineyards, one located in the Loire Valley and another in Languedoc-Roussillon, under two climate change scenarios. First, the effect of climate-induced yield change on the environmental impacts of future viticulture was assessed based on grape yield and climate data sets. Second, besides the climate-induced yield change, this study accounted for the impacts of extreme weather events on grape yield and the implementation of adaptation levers based on the future probability and potential yield loss due to extreme events. The life cycle assessment (LCA) results associated with climate-induced yield change led to opposite conclusions for the two vineyards of the case study. While the carbon footprint of the vineyard from Languedoc-Roussillon is projected to increase by 29 % by the end of the century under the high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), the corresponding footprint is projected to decrease in the vineyard from the Loire Valley by approximately 10 %. However, when including the effect of extreme events and adaptation options, the life cycle environmental impacts of grape production are projected to drastically increase for both vineyards. For instance, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the carbon footprint for the vineyard of Languedoc-Roussillon is projected to increase fourfold compared to the current footprint, while it will rise threefold for the vineyard from the Loire Valley. The obtained LCA results emphasized the need to account for the impact of both climate change and extreme events on grape production under future climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid37028647, year = {2023}, author = {de Carvalho, CF}, title = {Epigenetic effects of climate change on insects.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {57}, number = {}, pages = {101029}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2023.101029}, pmid = {37028647}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; Phenotype ; Insecta/genetics ; Epigenesis, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been causing severe modifications to the environment that are predicted to aggravate in the future, which create critical challenges for insects to cope. Populations can respond to the changes depending on the standing genetic variation. Additionally, they could potentially rely on epigenetic mechanisms as a source of phenotypic variation. These mechanisms can influence gene regulation and can respond to the external environment, being implicated in phenotypic plasticity. Thus, epigenetic variation could be advantageous in changing, unpredictable environments. However, little is known about causal relationships between epigenetic marks and insects' phenotypes, and whether the effects are truly beneficial to the fitness. Empirical studies are now urgent to better understand whether epigenetic variation can help or hinder insect populations facing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37027466, year = {2023}, author = {Balaguru, K and Xu, W and Chang, CC and Leung, LR and Judi, DR and Hagos, SM and Wehner, MF and Kossin, JP and Ting, M}, title = {Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {14}, pages = {eadf0259}, pmid = {37027466}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Several pathways for how climate change may influence the U.S. coastal hurricane risk have been proposed, but the physical mechanisms and possible connections between various pathways remain unclear. Here, future projections of hurricane activity (1980-2100), downscaled from multiple climate models using a synthetic hurricane model, show an enhanced hurricane frequency for the Gulf and lower East coast regions. The increase in coastal hurricane frequency is driven primarily by changes in steering flow, which can be attributed to the development of an upper-level cyclonic circulation over the western Atlantic. The latter is part of the baroclinic stationary Rossby waves forced mainly by increased diabatic heating in the eastern tropical Pacific, a robust signal across the multimodel ensemble. Last, these heating changes also play a key role in decreasing wind shear near the U.S. coast, further aggravating coastal hurricane risk enhanced by the physically connected steering flow changes.}, }
@article {pmid37027462, year = {2023}, author = {Setty, S and Cramwinckel, MJ and van Nes, EH and van de Leemput, IA and Dijkstra, HA and Lourens, LJ and Scheffer, M and Sluijs, A}, title = {Loss of Earth system resilience during early Eocene transient global warming events.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {14}, pages = {eade5466}, pmid = {37027462}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Superimposed on long-term late Paleocene-early Eocene warming (~59 to 52 million years ago), Earth's climate experienced a series of abrupt perturbations, characterized by massive carbon input into the ocean-atmosphere system and global warming. Here, we examine the three most punctuated events of this period, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 and 3, to probe whether they were initiated by climate-driven carbon cycle tipping points. Specifically, we analyze the dynamics of climate and carbon cycle indicators acquired from marine sediments to detect changes in Earth system resilience and to identify positive feedbacks. Our analyses suggest a loss of Earth system resilience toward all three events. Moreover, dynamic convergent cross mapping reveals intensifying coupling between the carbon cycle and climate during the long-term warming trend, supporting increasingly dominant climate forcing of carbon cycle dynamics during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum when these recurrent global warming events became more frequent.}, }
@article {pmid37026559, year = {2023}, author = {Kléparski, L and Beaugrand, G and Edwards, M and Ostle, C}, title = {Phytoplankton life strategies, phenological shifts and climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean from 1850 to 2100.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {13}, pages = {3833-3849}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16709}, pmid = {37026559}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Phytoplankton/physiology ; Climate Change ; Atlantic Ocean ; Oceans and Seas ; *Diatoms ; *Dinoflagellida ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Significant phenological shifts induced by climate change are projected within the phytoplankton community. However, projections from current Earth System Models (ESMs) understandably rely on simplified community responses that do not consider evolutionary strategies manifested as various phenotypes and trait groups. Here, we use a species-based modelling approach, combined with large-scale plankton observations, to investigate past, contemporary and future phenological shifts in diatoms (grouped by their morphological traits) and dinoflagellates in three key areas of the North Atlantic Ocean (North Sea, North-East Atlantic and Labrador Sea) from 1850 to 2100. Our study reveals that the three phytoplanktonic groups exhibit coherent and different shifts in phenology and abundance throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. The seasonal duration of large flattened (i.e. oblate) diatoms is predicted to shrink and their abundance to decline, whereas the phenology of slow-sinking elongated (i.e. prolate) diatoms and of dinoflagellates is expected to expand and their abundance to rise, which may alter carbon export in this important sink region. The increase in prolates and dinoflagellates, two groups currently not considered in ESMs, may alleviate the negative influence of global climate change on oblates, which are responsible of massive peaks of biomass and carbon export in spring. We suggest that including prolates and dinoflagellates in models may improve our understanding of the influence of global climate change on the biological carbon cycle in the oceans.}, }
@article {pmid37026097, year = {2023}, author = {Oluwayelu, DO and Moutailler, S and Odemuyiwa, SO}, title = {Editorial: Tick-borne viruses of domestic livestock: Epidemiology, evolutionary trends, biology and climate change impact.}, journal = {Frontiers in veterinary science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1147770}, pmid = {37026097}, issn = {2297-1769}, }
@article {pmid37025903, year = {2023}, author = {Hussein, A and Estifanos, S}, title = {Modeling impacts of climate change on the distribution of invasive Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill. in Ethiopia: Implications on biodiversity conservation.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e14927}, pmid = {37025903}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The main danger to biological diversity is the introduction of exotic species. Opuntia ficus-indica (O. ficus-indica) is a dangerous invasive species that has seriously harmed Ethiopia's ecology and economy. To properly inform decision-making about the control of this invasive species, it is crucial to investigate the projected invasion dynamics of O. ficus-indica in the country under the current climate change scenarios. Thus, the objective of this research was to evaluate the current distribution and relative importance of environmental variables for O. ficus-indica distribution, map the habitat's future suitability under scenarios of climate change and assess how habitat change would affect the species' future expected suitability in Ethiopia. The SDM R program was used to perform species distribution modeling (SDM) using 311 georeferenced presence records along with climatic variables. Predictive models were developed as an agreement model from six modeling methodologies to investigate the climatic suitability of target species for the years 2050 and 2070 under two shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5) in order to estimate the risks of climate change to the species. Under the current climatic scenario, only 9.26% (104939.3 km[2]) and 4.05% (45850.6 km[2]) of the country were moderately and highly suitable for species dispersion and invasion respectively. The remaining 86.69% (980648 km[2]) was suitable for the distribution and invasion of the species. In 2050, under the SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5, the highly suitable range of O. ficus-indica is anticipated to expand by 2.30% and 1.76%, whereas the moderately suitable area is predicted to decrease by 1.66% and 2.69%, respectively. Under the SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5 scenarios, the highly suitable region for the species is expected to grow by 1.47% and 0.65%, respectively, in 2070 compared to the current climatic conditions. This invasive species had already had a considerable negative influence on rangelands in a significant portion of the country with the current cover. Its continuing growth would exacerbate the issue, cause significant economic and environmental harm, and endanger the community's way of living. If preventive and efficient management methods are not taken seriously, the species will have considerable negative environmental impacts, which would be one of the biggest difficulties for pastoralism and their livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid37023813, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, C and Ota, N and Wang, B and Fu, G and Fletcher, A}, title = {Adaptation to climate change through strategic integration of long fallow into cropping system in a dryland Mediterranean-type environment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {880}, number = {}, pages = {163230}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163230}, pmid = {37023813}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Agriculture/methods ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Edible Grain ; Triticum ; }, abstract = {The crop-growing region of Western Australia characterized by a Mediterranean-type climate is projected to become warmer and drier. Appropriate selection of crop sequences will be of importance to cope with these climatic changes for this largest grain-producing region of Australia. Through linking a widely used crop model (APSIM), 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with one Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP585) and economic analysis, we explored how the climate change would affect dryland wheat cropping and whether/how long fallow (the practice of leaving a field out of production for an entire growing season) could be integrated into wheat cropping system in Western Australia. The potential adaptation of long fallow into wheat system was assessed with four fixed rotations (fallow-wheat, fallow-wheat-wheat, fallow-wheat-wheat-wheat, and fallow-wheat-wheat-wheat-wheat) and four flexible sowing rule-based rotations (the land was fallowed if sowing rule was not met), compared with continuous wheat. The simulation results at four representing locations show that climate change would have negative impacts on both yield and economic return of continuous wheat cropping in Western Australia. Wheat after fallow out-yielded and out-profited wheat after wheat under future climate. But integrating fallow into wheat cropping systems with the above fixed rotations would lead to yield and economic loss. By contrast, cropping systems in which fallowing took place when sowing condition could not be met at a certain time would achieve comparable yield and economic return to continuous wheat, with wheat yield being only 5 % less than continuous wheat and the gross margin being $12 ha[-1] more than continuous wheat averaged across locations. We highlight strategic integration of long fallow into cropping system in a dryland Mediterranean-type environment would have a great potential to cope with future climate change. These findings can be extended into other Mediterranean-type cropping regions in Australia and beyond.}, }
@article {pmid37023609, year = {2023}, author = {Carmona, P and Stef, N and Ben Jabeur, S and Ben Zaied, Y}, title = {Climate change and government policy: Fresh insights from complexity theory.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {338}, number = {}, pages = {117831}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117831}, pmid = {37023609}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Economic Development ; France ; }, abstract = {Governments worldwide are increasingly concerned about ensuring a balance between economic and environmental well being. Global economies, particularly developing ones, emphasize the importance of achieving escofriendly growth to maintain the levels of the ecological footprint while achieving higher economic growth. The ecological footprint is a comprehensive indicator of environmental degradation. It is used to assess the state of the environment because it reflects the impact of all human activities on nature. This study contributes to the literature by offering a novel analytical approach for solving complex interactions of ecological footprint antecedents, advancing the theoretical reasoning behind how government policy combines to explain the ecological footprint from some G7 countries (France, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and Germany) from 1996 to 2020. To establish a composite score of environmental footprint, we used complexity theory as well as fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and necessary condition analysis (NCA). Our analysis revealed that low expenditures on environmental protection and waste management, low taxes on transport, and high energy use are sufficient conditions to be included in the causal configurations for a high ecological footprint. Additionally, the sufficient solution, which has the highest coverage score that produces a low ecological footprint relies on high expenditure on environmental protection and high taxes on transportation. In this framework, Japan, Italy, and France have more effective government policies in terms of reducing the ecological footprint.}, }
@article {pmid37021604, year = {2023}, author = {Qi, L and Zheng, Y and Hou, L and Liu, B and Zhou, J and An, Z and Wu, L and Chen, F and Lin, Z and Yin, G and Dong, H and Li, X and Liang, X and Liu, M}, title = {Potential response of dark carbon fixation to global warming in estuarine and coastal waters.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {13}, pages = {3821-3832}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16702}, pmid = {37021604}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2016YFA0600904//Chinese National Key Programs for Fundamental Research and Development/ ; KLGIS2022C03//Director's Fund of Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University/ ; 41725002//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41730646//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41971105//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 42030411//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 42222605//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 42230505//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Ecosystem ; Carbon Cycle ; Seasons ; Carbon/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Dark carbon fixation (DCF), through which chemoautotrophs convert inorganic carbon to organic carbon, is recognized as a vital process of global carbon biogeochemical cycle. However, little is known about the response of DCF processes in estuarine and coastal waters to global warming. Using radiocarbon labelling method, the effects of temperature on the activity of chemoautotrophs were investigated in benthic water of the Yangtze estuarine and coastal areas. A dome-shaped thermal response pattern was observed for DCF rates (i.e., reduced rates at lower or higher temperatures), with the optimum temperature (Topt) varying from about 21.9 to 32.0°C. Offshore sites showed lower Topt values and were more vulnerable to global warming compared with nearshore sites. Based on temperature seasonality of the study area, it was estimated that warming would accelerate DCF rate in winter and spring but inhibit DCF activity in summer and fall. However, at an annual scale, warming showed an overall promoting effect on DCF rates. Metagenomic analysis revealed that the dominant chemoautotrophic carbon fixation pathways in the nearshore area were Calvin-Benson-Bassham (CBB) cycle, while the offshore sites were co-dominated by CBB and 3-hydroxypropionate/4-hydroxybutyrate cycles, which may explain the differential temperature response of DCF along the estuarine and coastal gradients. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating DCF thermal response into biogeochemical models to accurately estimate the carbon sink potential of estuarine and coastal ecosystems in the context of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid37019977, year = {2023}, author = {Abduljaleel, Y and Salem, A and Ul Haq, F and Awad, A and Amiri, M}, title = {Improving detention ponds for effective stormwater management and water quality enhancement under future climate change: a simulation study using the PCSWMM model.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {5555}, pmid = {37019977}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Urban surfaces are often covered by impermeable materials such as concrete and asphalt which intensify urban runoff and pollutant concentration during storm events, and lead to the deterioration of the quality of surrounding water bodies. Detention ponds are used in urban stormwater management, providing two-fold benefits: flood risk reduction and pollution load minimization. This paper investigates the performance of nine proposed detention ponds (across the city of Renton, Washington, USA) under different climate change scenarios. First, a statistical model was developed to estimate the pollutant load for the current and future periods and to understand the effects of increased rainfall on stormwater runoff and pollutant loads. The Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model (PCSWMM) platform is employed to calibrate an urban drainage model for quantifying stormwater runoff and corresponding pollutant loads. The calibrated model was used to investigate the performance of the proposed nine (9) detention ponds under future climate scenarios of 100-year design storms, leading to identifying if they are likely to reduce stormwater discharge and pollutant loads. Results indicated significant increases in stormwater pollutants due to increases in rainfall from 2023 to 2050 compared to the historical period 2000-2014. We found that the performance of the proposed detention ponds in reducing stormwater pollutants varied depending on the size and location of the detention ponds. Simulations for the future indicated that the selected detention ponds are likely to reduce the concentrations (loads) of different water quality constituents such as ammonia (NH3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrate (NO3), total phosphate (TP), and suspended solids (SS) ranging from 18 to 86%, 35-70%, 36-65%, 26-91%, and 34-81%, respectively. The study concluded that detention ponds can be used as a reliable solution for reducing stormwater flows and pollutant loads under a warmer future climate and an effective adaptation option to combat climate change related challenges in urban stormwater management.}, }
@article {pmid37019944, year = {2023}, author = {Martinez-Villalobos, C and Neelin, JD}, title = {Regionally high risk increase for precipitation extreme events under global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {5579}, pmid = {37019944}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {AGS-1936810//National Science Foundation/ ; NA21OAR4310354//National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ ; Fondecyt Postdoctorado c&#xf3;digo 3200621//Agencia Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n y Desarrollo/ ; }, abstract = {Daily precipitation extremes are projected to intensify with increasing moisture under global warming following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship at about [Formula: see text]. However, this increase is not spatially homogeneous. Projections in individual models exhibit regions with substantially larger increases than expected from the CC scaling. Here, we leverage theory and observations of the form of the precipitation probability distribution to substantially improve intermodel agreement in the medium to high precipitation intensity regime, and to interpret projected changes in frequency in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Besides particular regions where models consistently display super-CC behavior, we find substantial occurrence of super-CC behavior within a given latitude band when the multi-model average does not require that the models agree point-wise on location within that band. About 13% of the globe and almost 25% of the tropics (30% for tropical land) display increases exceeding 2CC. Over 40% of tropical land points exceed 1.5CC. Risk-ratio analysis shows that even small increases above CC scaling can have disproportionately large effects in the frequency of the most extreme events. Risk due to regional enhancement of precipitation scale increase by dynamical effects must thus be included in vulnerability assessment even if locations are imprecise.}, }
@article {pmid37019396, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, X and Qiu, H and Van Gestel, CAM and Gong, B and He, E}, title = {Impact of nanopesticide CuO-NPs and nanofertilizer CeO2-NPs on wheat Triticum aestivum under global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {328}, number = {}, pages = {138576}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2023.138576}, pmid = {37019396}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {*Nanoparticles ; Triticum/metabolism ; Global Warming ; Copper/metabolism ; *Metal Nanoparticles/toxicity ; }, abstract = {Concurrent effect of nanomaterials (NMs) and warming on plant performance remains largely unexplored. In this study, the effects of nanopesticide CuO and nanofertilizer CeO2 on wheat (Triticum aestivum) under optimal (22 °C) and suboptimal (30 °C) temperatures were evaluated. CuO-NPs exerted a stronger negative effect on plant root systems than CeO2-NPs at tested exposure levels. The toxicity of both NMs could be attributed to altered nutrient uptake, induced membrane damage, and raised disturbance of antioxidative related biological pathways. Warming significantly inhibited root growth, which was mainly linked to the disturbance of energy metabolism relevant biological pathways. The toxicity of NMs was enhanced upon warming, with a stronger inhibition of root growth and Fe and Mn uptake. Increasing temperature increased the accumulation of Ce upon CeO2-NP exposure, while the accumulation of Cu was not affected. The relative contribution of NMs and warming to their combined effects was evaluated by comparing disturbed biological pathways under single and multiple stressors. CuO-NPs was the dominant factor inducing toxic effects, while both CeO2-NPs and warming contributed to the mixed effect. Our study revealed the importance of carefully considering global warming as a factor in risk assessment of agricultural applications of NMs.}, }
@article {pmid37018407, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, WB and Guo, WY and Serra-Diaz, JM and Schrodt, F and Eiserhardt, WL and Enquist, BJ and Maitner, BS and Merow, C and Violle, C and Anand, M and Belluau, M and Bruun, HH and Byun, C and Catford, JA and Cerabolini, BEL and Chacón-Madrigal, E and Ciccarelli, D and Cornelissen, JHC and Dang-Le, AT and de Frutos, A and Dias, AS and Giroldo, AB and Gutiérrez, AG and Hattingh, W and He, T and Hietz, P and Hough-Snee, N and Jansen, S and Kattge, J and Komac, B and Kraft, NJB and Kramer, K and Lavorel, S and Lusk, CH and Martin, AR and Ma, KP and Mencuccini, M and Michaletz, ST and Minden, V and Mori, AS and Niinemets, &#xdc; and Onoda, Y and Onstein, RE and Peñuelas, J and Pillar, VD and Pisek, J and Pound, MJ and Robroek, BJM and Schamp, B and Slot, M and Sun, M and Sosinski, &#xca;E and Soudzilovskaia, NA and Thiffault, N and van Bodegom, PM and van der Plas, F and Zheng, J and Svenning, JC and Ordonez, A}, title = {Global beta-diversity of angiosperm trees is shaped by Quaternary climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {14}, pages = {eadd8553}, pmid = {37018407}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Humans ; Phylogeny ; *Magnoliopsida ; Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {As Earth's climate has varied strongly through geological time, studying the impacts of past climate change on biodiversity helps to understand the risks from future climate change. However, it remains unclear how paleoclimate shapes spatial variation in biodiversity. Here, we assessed the influence of Quaternary climate change on spatial dissimilarity in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional composition among neighboring 200-kilometer cells (beta-diversity) for angiosperm trees worldwide. We found that larger glacial-interglacial temperature change was strongly associated with lower spatial turnover (species replacements) and higher nestedness (richness changes) components of beta-diversity across all three biodiversity facets. Moreover, phylogenetic and functional turnover was lower and nestedness higher than random expectations based on taxonomic beta-diversity in regions that experienced large temperature change, reflecting phylogenetically and functionally selective processes in species replacement, extinction, and colonization during glacial-interglacial oscillations. Our results suggest that future human-driven climate change could cause local homogenization and reduction in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity of angiosperm trees worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid37018169, year = {2023}, author = {Heinz, N and Koessler, AK and Engel, S}, title = {Distance to climate change consequences reduces willingness to engage in low-cost mitigation actions-Results from an experimental online study from Germany.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {e0283190}, pmid = {37018169}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Germany ; *Policy ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; India ; }, abstract = {Adverse consequences of climate change often affect people and places far away from those that have the greatest capacity for mitigation. Several correlational and some experimental studies suggest that the willingness to take mitigation actions may diminish with increasing distance. However, the empirical findings are ambiguous. In order to investigate if and how socio-spatial distance to climate change effects plays a role for the willingness to engage in mitigation actions, we conducted an online experiment with a German population sample (n = 383). We find that the willingness to sign a petition for climate protection was significantly reduced when a person in India with a name of Indian origin was affected by flooding, as compared to a person in Germany with a name of German origin. Distance did not affect donating money to climate protection or approving of mitigation policies. Our results provide evidence for the existence of a negative effect of distance to climate change consequences on the willingness to engage in low-cost mitigation actions. Investigating explanations for such an effect, we find that it can be attributed to the spatial rather than the social dimension of distance. Moreover, we find some cautious evidence that people with strong racist attitudes react differently to the distance manipulations, suggesting a form of environmental racism that could also reduce mitigation action in the case of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid37017873, year = {2023}, author = {Behera, SS and Ojha, CSP and Prasad, KSH and Dash, SS}, title = {Yield, water, and carbon footprint of rainfed rice production under the lens of mid-century climate change: a case study in the eastern coastal agro-climatic zone, Odisha, India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {5}, pages = {544}, pmid = {37017873}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Oryza ; Climate Change ; Water ; Carbon Footprint ; Fertilizers ; Environmental Monitoring ; India ; }, abstract = {Water and carbon footprint assessment can be a good indicator of sustainable agricultural production. The present research quantifies the potential impact of near-future (2026-2050) climate change on water footprint (WF) and carbon footprint (CF) of farm-level kharif rice production of three locally grown varieties (Khandagiri, Lalat, and Swarna) in Odisha, India, under the two RCP scenarios of 4.5 and 8.5. The crop yield, water resources utilization, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were estimated using the calibrated and validated DSSAT crop simulation model. The precipitation and temperature estimates from three regional climate models (RCM), namely HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, and YSU-RSM were downscaled using the quantile mapping method. The results revealed a considerably high increase in the total WF of the Khandagiri, Lalat, and Swarna rice varieties elevating up to 101.9%, 80.7%, and 71.8% respectively during the mid-century for RCP 4.5 scenario, and 67.3%, 66.6%, and 67.2% respectively for RCP 8.5 scenario relative to the baseline WF. Moreover, compared to the green WF, the blue WF was projected to increase significantly (~ 250-450%) in the future time scales. This could be attributed to increasing minimum temperature (~ 1.7 °C) and maximum temperature (~ 1.5 °C) and reduced precipitation during the rice-growing periods. Rice yield was projected to continually decline in the future period (2050) with respect to the baseline (1980-2015) by 18.8% and 20% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively. The maximum CF of Swarna, Lalat, and Khandagiri rice were estimated to be 3.2, 2.8, and 1.3 t CO2eq/t respectively under RCP 4.5 and 2.7, 2.4, and 1.3 t CO2eq/t respectively under RCP 8.5 scenario. Fertilizer application (40%) followed by irrigation-energy use (30%) and farmyard manure incorporation (26%) were the three major contributors to the CF of rice production. Subsequently, management of N-fertilizer dose was identified as the major mitigation hotspot, simultaneously reducing carbon footprint and grey water footprint in the crop production process.}, }
@article {pmid37017749, year = {2023}, author = {Zeren Cetin, I and Varol, T and Ozel, HB}, title = {A geographic information systems and remote sensing-based approach to assess urban micro-climate change and its impact on human health in Bartin, Turkey.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {5}, pages = {540}, pmid = {37017749}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {Tubitak YOK 100/2000 Scholarship//Tubitak YOK 100/2000 Scholarship/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Geographic Information Systems ; *Remote Sensing Technology ; Turkey ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Cities ; Urbanization ; Temperature ; Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Increasing land surface temperature (LST) is one of the major urban climatology problems arising in urban development. In this paper, the impact of vegetation and built-up areas on the LST and impact of LST on human health are assessed using the Landsat thermal data in Bartin, Turkey. The results show that there is a constant change in the share of vegetation and built-up areas due to rapid urbanization in Bartin. Strong positive correlation has been found between NDBI and LST while strong negative correlation has been found between NDVI and LST, suggesting their strong impacts on land surface temperatures. Similarly, a strong positive correlation has been observed between LST, sleep deprivation, and heat stress. This study provides precise information on effects of urbanization and man-made activities, which cause major changes in micro-climate and human health in the city. This study can assist decision-makers or planners to plan future developments sustainably.}, }
@article {pmid37015939, year = {2023}, author = {Song, J and Tong, G and Chao, J and Chung, J and Zhang, M and Lin, W and Zhang, T and Bentler, PM and Zhu, W}, title = {Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {5536}, pmid = {37015939}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46-4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474-671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43-2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389-509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.}, }
@article {pmid37014870, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, Y and Zhu, R and Gao, L and Huang, D and Fan, Y and Liu, C and Chen, J}, title = {Predicting the current and future distributions of Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) in China under climate change based on the MaxEnt model.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {e0281254}, pmid = {37014870}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Pennisetum ; Climate Change ; Entropy ; China ; }, abstract = {Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.), one of the important exotic plants, gives great economic value to animal husbandry in China. In order to study the distribution of Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) in China and its response to climate change, based on the distribution records of Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.), our study used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and geographic information system (GIS) methods, combined with environmental factors such as climate and terrain, to predict the potential distribution areas suitable for Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) under current and future climate scenarios. The results showed that annual precipitation was the most important factor affecting the distribution of Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.). In current climate scenario, the total area of suitable for Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) growth was about 576.5 km2, accounting for about 60.5% of the total land area of China. Among all the suitable areas, the area of low, middle and high fitness areas accounted for 5.69%, 20.55% and 33.81% of the total area respectively. In future climate scenarios (RCP4.5), the suitable area of Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) would decrease with climate change, showing a clear trend of northward expansion in China. A concentrated and contiguous distribution region for Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) would appear in northeast China. The model was tested by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and the average area under the curve of ROC of the training set was 0.985, which was reliable. This work provided an important reference and theoretical basis for the efficient utilization and plant regionalization of Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) in future.}, }
@article {pmid37014233, year = {2023}, author = {Touhami, I and Rzigui, T and Zribi, L and Ennajah, A and Dhahri, S and Aouinti, H and Elaieb, MT and Fkiri, S and Ghazghazi, H and Khorchani, A and Candelier, K and Khaldi, A and Khouja, ML}, title = {Climate change-induced ecosystem disturbance: a review on sclerophyllous and semi-deciduous forests in Tunisia.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {481-497}, doi = {10.1111/plb.13524}, pmid = {37014233}, issn = {1438-8677}, support = {//National Research Institute for Rural Engineering, Waters, and Forestry -INRGREF/ ; //Laboratory of Management and Valorization of Forest Resources, Tunisia/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Tunisia ; Forests ; Trees ; Droughts ; }, abstract = {According to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate change is now unequivocal. Tunisia, like many other countries, has been affected by climate changes, including rising temperatures, intense heatwaves, and altered precipitation regimes. Tunisia's mean annual temperatures has risen about +1.4 °C in the twentieth century, with the most rapid warming taking place since the 1970s. Drought represents a primary contributing factor to tree decline and dieback. Long-term drought can result in reduced growth and health of trees, thereby increasing their susceptibility to insect pests and pathogens. Reported increases in tree mortality point toward accelerating global forest vulnerability under hotter temperatures and longer, more intense droughts. In order to assess the effect of these climate changes on the current state of forest ecosystems in Tunisia and their evolution, an investigative study was required. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the effects of climate change on sclerophyllous and semi-deciduous forest ecosystems in Tunisia. Natural disturbance during recent years, as well as the adaptability and resilience of some forest species to climate change, were surveyed. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a multi-scalar drought index based on climate data that has been used to analyse drought variability. The SPEI time scale analysis showed a negative trend over the 1955-2021 period in Tunisian forest regions. In 2021, Tunisia lost 280 km[2] of tree cover to fires, which is equivalent to 26% of the total lost area between 2008 and 2021. Changing climate conditions have also affected phenological parameters, with an advance in the start of the green season (SOS) of 9.4 days, a delay at the end of the green season (EOS) of 5 days, with a consequent extended duration of the green season (LOS) by an average of 14.2 days. All of these alarming findings invite us to seek adaptation strategies for forest ecosystems. Adapting forests to climate change is therefore a challenge for scientists as well as policymakers and managers.}, }
@article {pmid37013877, year = {2023}, author = {Tochkin, J and Richmond, J and Hertelendy, A}, title = {Healthcare system leadership and climate change: five lessons for improving health systems resiliency.}, journal = {BMJ leader}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {52-55}, doi = {10.1136/leader-2021-000583}, pmid = {37013877}, issn = {2398-631X}, mesh = {*Leadership ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; }, }
@article {pmid37012995, year = {2023}, author = {Candiago, S and Winkler, KJ and Giombini, V and Giupponi, C and Egarter Vigl, L}, title = {An ecosystem service approach to the study of vineyard landscapes in the context of climate change: a review.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {997-1013}, pmid = {37012995}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Vineyard landscapes significantly contribute to the economy, identity, culture, and biodiversity of many regions worldwide. Climate change, however, is increasingly threatening the resilience of vineyard landscapes and of their ecological conditions, undermining the provision of multiple ecosystem services. Previous research has often focused on climate change impacts, ecosystem conditions and ecosystem services without systematically reviewing how they have been studied in the literature on viticulture. Here, we systematically review the literature on vineyard landscapes to identify how ecosystem conditions and services have been investigated, and whether an integrative approach to investigate the effects of climate change was adopted. Our results indicate that there are still very few studies that explicitly address multiple ecosystem conditions and services together. Only 28 and 18% of the reviewed studies considered more than two ecosystem conditions or services, respectively. Moreover, while more than 97% of the relationships between ecosystem conditions and services studied were addressing provisioning and regulating services, only 3% examined cultural services. Finally, this review found that there is a lack of integrative studies that address simultaneously the relationships between ecosystem condition, ecosystem services and climate change (only 15 out of 112 studies). To overcome these gaps and to better understand the functioning of vineyard socio-ecological systems under climate change, multidisciplinary, integrative, and comprehensive approaches should be adopted by future studies. A holistic understanding of vineyard landscapes will indeed be crucial to support researchers and decision makers in developing sustainable adaptation strategies that enhance the ecological condition of vineyards and ensure the provision of multiple ecosystem services under future climate scenarios.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01223-x.}, }
@article {pmid37012264, year = {2023}, author = {Mahdian, M and Hosseinzadeh, M and Siadatmousavi, SM and Chalipa, Z and Delavar, M and Guo, M and Abolfathi, S and Noori, R}, title = {Modelling impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflows and sediment loads of wetlands: case study of the Anzali wetland.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {5399}, pmid = {37012264}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Understanding the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the hydrogeomorpholgical parameters in wetlands ecosystems is vital for designing effective environmental protection and control protocols for these natural capitals. This study develops methodological approach to model the streamflow and sediment inputs to wetlands under the combined effects of climate and land use / land cover (LULC) changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The precipitation and temperature data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) for different Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) are downscaled and bias-corrected with Euclidean distance method and quantile delta mapping (QDM) for the case of the Anzali wetland watershed (AWW) in Iran. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is adopted to project the future LULC at the AWW. The results indicate that the precipitation and air temperature across the AWW will decrease and increase, respectively, under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Streamflow and sediment loads will reduce under the sole influence of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. An increase in sediment load and inflow was observed under the combined effects of climate and LULC changes, this is mainly due to the projected increased deforestation and urbanization across the AWW. The findings suggest that the densely vegetated regions, mainly located in the zones with steep slope, significantly prevents large sediment load and high streamflow input to the AWW. Under the combined effects of the climate and LULC changes, by 2100, the projected total sediment input to the wetland will reach 22.66, 20.83, and 19.93 million tons under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results highlight that without any robust environmental interventions, the large sediment inputs will significantly degrade the Anzali wetland ecosystem and partly-fill the wetland basin, resulting in resigning the wetland from the Montreux record list and the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance.}, }
@article {pmid37011955, year = {2023}, author = {Gordon, IO and Mehta, N and Isaacson, JH and Khatri, SB}, title = {How does climate change impact our patients?.}, journal = {Cleveland Clinic journal of medicine}, volume = {90}, number = {4}, pages = {221-226}, doi = {10.3949/ccjm.90a.22007}, pmid = {37011955}, issn = {1939-2869}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid37011195, year = {2023}, author = {Wagner, T and Schliep, EM and North, JS and Kundel, H and Custer, CA and Ruzich, JK and Hansen, GJA}, title = {Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {15}, pages = {e2214199120}, pmid = {37011195}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {EF-1638679 EF-1638554 EF-1638539 and EF-1638550//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Fishes/physiology ; Temperature ; Ecosystem ; Cold Temperature ; }, abstract = {Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.}, }
@article {pmid37011173, year = {2023}, author = {Pearson, AR and White, KE and Nogueira, LM and Lewis, NA and Green, DJ and Schuldt, JP and Edmondson, D}, title = {Climate change and health equity: A research agenda for psychological science.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {78}, number = {2}, pages = {244-258}, doi = {10.1037/amp0001074}, pmid = {37011173}, issn = {1935-990X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Health Equity ; Climate Change ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses unique and substantial threats to public health and well-being, from heat stress, flooding, and the spread of infectious disease to food and water insecurity, conflict, displacement, and direct health hazards linked to fossil fuels. These threats are especially acute for frontline communities. Addressing climate change and its unequal impacts requires psychologists to consider temporal and spatial dimensions of health, compound risks, as well as structural sources of vulnerability implicated by few other public health challenges. In this review, we consider climate change as a unique context for the study of health inequities and the roles of psychologists and health care practitioners in addressing it. We conclude by discussing the research infrastructure needed to broaden current understanding of these inequities, including new cross-disciplinary, institutional, and community partnerships, and offer six practical recommendations for advancing the psychological study of climate health equity and its societal relevance. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).}, }
@article {pmid37010926, year = {2023}, author = {Fielding, JE and Brownson, RC and Green, LW}, title = {The Urgency of Addressing Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {44}, number = {}, pages = {v-vi}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-pu-44-013023-100001}, pmid = {37010926}, issn = {1545-2093}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid37010574, year = {2023}, author = {Ingty, T and Erb, A and Zhang, X and Schaaf, C and Bawa, KS}, title = {Climate change is leading to rapid shifts in seasonality in the himalaya.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {67}, number = {5}, pages = {913-925}, pmid = {37010574}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Seasons ; *Snow ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has significantly impacted vegetation phenology across the globe with vegetation experiencing an advance in the spring green-up phases and a delay in fall senescence. However, some studies from high latitudes and high elevations have instead shown delayed spring phenology, owing to a lack of chilling fulfillment and altered snow cover and photoperiods. Here we use the MODIS satellite-derived view-angle corrected surface reflectance data (MCD43A4) to document the four phenological phases in the high elevations of the Sikkim Himalaya and compared the phenological trends between below-treeline zones and above-treeline zones. This analysis of remotely sensed data for the study period (2001-2017) reveals considerable shifts in the phenology of the Sikkim Himalaya. Advances in the spring start of the season phase (SOS) were more pronounced than delays in the dates for maturity (MAT), senescence (EOS), and advanced dormancy (DOR). The SOS significantly advanced by 21.3 days while the MAT and EOS were delayed by 15.7 days and 6.5 days respectively over the 17-year study period. The DOR showed an advance of 8.2 days over the study period. The region below the treeline showed more pronounced shifts in phenology with respect to an advanced SOS and a delayed EOS and DOR that above treeline. The MAT, however, showed a greater delay in the zone above the treeline than below. Lastly, unlike other studies from high elevations, there is no indication that winter chilling requirements are driving the spring phenology in this region. We discuss four possible explanations for why vegetation phenology in the high elevations of the Eastern Himalaya may exhibit trends independent of chilling requirements and soil moisture due to mediation by snow cover.}, }
@article {pmid37010554, year = {2023}, author = {Zobeidi, T and Yazdanpanah, M and Warner, LA and Lamm, A and Löhr, K and Sieber, S}, title = {Personal and Professional Mitigation Behavioral Intentions of Agricultural Experts to Address Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {72}, number = {2}, pages = {396-409}, pmid = {37010554}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Humans ; *Intention ; *Climate Change ; Social Behavior ; Agriculture ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Mitigation activities, whether at the personal level relating to lifestyle or on the professional level, especially in the agriculture sector, are widely encouraged by scientists and policymakers. This research empirically analyses the association between agricultural experts' perceptions about climate change and their intention to implement climate change mitigation. Based on survey data, individuals' reported intention to implement personal and professional mitigation behavior is explained using a conceptual model. The structural equation modeling results suggest that the new ecological paradigm (NEP), institutional trust, and risk salience indirectly influence climate change mitigation intentions. The findings indicate that risk perception, personal efficacy, responsibility, belief in climate change occurring, and low psychological distance trigger a significantly greater intention to support personal and professional mitigation behaviors. However, the research framework is much stronger at predicting the intention to mitigate climate change in professional affairs compared to personal activities. The findings suggest that hypothetical distance factors only have a moderating effect on the relationship between higher climate change environmental values, institutional trust, risk salience, and mitigation intention. This paper analytically explores the regulating role of risk perception, hypothetical distance, personal efficacy, and responsibility between institutional trust, risk salience, and the NEP as independent concepts and intention to personal and professional mitigation behaviors as dependent variables. The findings of the study have important implications for encouraging personal and professional mitigation behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid37008491, year = {2023}, author = {Tian, P and Liu, Y and Ou, J}, title = {Meta-analysis of the impact of future climate change on the area of woody plant habitats in China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1139739}, pmid = {37008491}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change poses a very serious threat to woody plants, and it is important to study its impact on the distribution dynamics of woody plants in China. However, there are no comprehensive quantitative studies on which factors influence the changes in the area of woody plant habitats in China under climate change. In this meta-analysis, we investigated the future suitable habitat area changes of 114 woody plant species in 85 studies based on MaxEnt model predictions to summarize the future climate change impacts on woody plant habitat area changes in China. It was found that climate change will result in a 3.66% increase in the overall woody plant suitable areas and a 31.33% decrease in the highly suitable areas in China. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter is the most important climatic factor, and greenhouse gas concentrations were inversely related to the area of future woody plant suitable areas. Meanwhile, shrubs are more climate-responsive than trees, drought-tolerant plants (e.g., Dalbergia, Cupressus, and Xanthoceras) and plants that can adapt quickly (e.g., Camellia, Cassia, and Fokienia) and their appearance will increase in the future. Old World temperate, Trop. Asia and Trop. Amer. disjuncted, and the Sino-Himalaya Floristic region are more vulnerable. Quantitative analysis of the possible risks to future climate change in areas suitable for woody plants in China is important for global woody plant diversity conservation.}, }
@article {pmid37005189, year = {2023}, author = {Hansen, MM}, title = {Prepping for climate change by introgressive hybridization.}, journal = {Trends in genetics : TIG}, volume = {39}, number = {7}, pages = {524-525}, doi = {10.1016/j.tig.2023.03.007}, pmid = {37005189}, issn = {0168-9525}, mesh = {*Genetic Introgression ; *Climate Change ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Hybridization, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Species and populations may adapt to climate change by microevolutionary processes. However, standing genetic variation can be insufficient for this to occur. An interesting new study of a system of rainbowfish species shows that intraspecific hybridization enriches gene pools with adaptive variation that may allow persistence in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid37004534, year = {2023}, author = {Dittmer, KM and Rose, S and Snapp, SS and Kebede, Y and Brickman, S and Shelton, S and Egler, C and Stier, M and Wollenberg, E}, title = {Agroecology Can Promote Climate Change Adaptation Outcomes Without Compromising Yield In Smallholder Systems.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {72}, number = {2}, pages = {333-342}, pmid = {37004534}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Agriculture ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Nutrients ; }, abstract = {A critical question is whether agroecology can promote climate change mitigation and adaptation outcomes without compromising food security. We assessed the outcomes of smallholder agricultural systems and practices in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) against 35 mitigation, adaptation, and yield indicators by reviewing 50 articles with 77 cases of agroecological treatments relative to a baseline of conventional practices. Crop yields were higher for 63% of cases reporting yields. Crop diversity, income diversity, net income, reduced income variability, nutrient regulation, and reduced pest infestation, indicators of adaptative capacity, were associated with 70% or more of cases. Limited information on climate change mitigation, such as greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration impacts, was available. Overall, the evidence indicates that use of organic nutrient sources, diversifying systems with legumes and integrated pest management lead to climate change adaptation in multiple contexts. Landscape mosaics, biological control (e.g., enhancement of beneficial organisms) and field sanitation measures do not yet have sufficient evidence based on this review. Widespread adoption of agroecological practices and system transformations shows promise to contribute to climate change services and food security in LMICs. Gaps in adaptation and mitigation strategies and areas for policy and research interventions are finally discussed.}, }
@article {pmid37003691, year = {2023}, author = {Muukkonen, P}, title = {Geography education to help understand discrimination in climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {401}, number = {10382}, pages = {1075-1076}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00325-2}, pmid = {37003691}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Educational Status ; Geography ; }, }
@article {pmid37003689, year = {2023}, author = {Romanello, M and Cai, W and Costello, A and Hartinger, S and Murray, K and Gordon Stratchan, G}, title = {No climate change justice in lieu of global authorship equity - Authors' reply.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {401}, number = {10382}, pages = {1074-1075}, pmid = {37003689}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Authorship ; *Publishing ; Social Justice ; Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid37003688, year = {2023}, author = {Riaz, MMA and Wangari, MC and Mugambi, JK}, title = {No climate change justice in lieu of global authorship equity.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {401}, number = {10382}, pages = {1074}, pmid = {37003688}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Authorship ; Social Justice ; Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; }, }
@article {pmid36998696, year = {2023}, author = {Rajpal, VR and Singh, A and Kathpalia, R and Thakur, RK and Khan, MK and Pandey, A and Hamurcu, M and Raina, SN}, title = {The Prospects of gene introgression from crop wild relatives into cultivated lentil for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1127239}, pmid = {36998696}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Crop wild relatives (CWRs), landraces and exotic germplasm are important sources of genetic variability, alien alleles, and useful crop traits that can help mitigate a plethora of abiotic and biotic stresses and crop yield reduction arising due to global climatic changes. In the pulse crop genus Lens, the cultivated varieties have a narrow genetic base due to recurrent selections, genetic bottleneck and linkage drag. The collection and characterization of wild Lens germplasm resources have offered new avenues for the genetic improvement and development of stress-tolerant, climate-resilient lentil varieties with sustainable yield gains to meet future food and nutritional requirements. Most of the lentil breeding traits such as high-yield, adaptation to abiotic stresses and resistance to diseases are quantitative and require the identification of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for marker assisted selection and breeding. Advances in genetic diversity studies, genome mapping and advanced high-throughput sequencing technologies have helped identify many stress-responsive adaptive genes, quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and other useful crop traits in the CWRs. The recent integration of genomics technologies with plant breeding has resulted in the generation of dense genomic linkage maps, massive global genotyping, large transcriptomic datasets, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), expressed sequence tags (ESTs) that have advanced lentil genomic research substantially and allowed for the identification of QTLs for marker-assisted selection (MAS) and breeding. Assembly of lentil and its wild species genomes (~4Gbp) opens up newer possibilities for understanding genomic architecture and evolution of this important legume crop. This review highlights the recent strides in the characterization of wild genetic resources for useful alleles, development of high-density genetic maps, high-resolution QTL mapping, genome-wide studies, MAS, genomic selections, new databases and genome assemblies in traditionally bred genus Lens for future crop improvement amidst the impending global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36998681, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, K and Shi, L and Zheng, B and He, Y}, title = {Responses of wheat kernel weight to diverse allelic combinations under projected climate change conditions.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1138966}, pmid = {36998681}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: In wheat, kernel weight (KW) is a key determinant of grain yield (GY). However, it is often overlooked when improving wheat productivity under climate warming. Moreover, little is known about the complex effects of genetic and climatic factors on KW. Here, we explored the responses of wheat KW to diverse allelic combinations under projected climate warming conditions.<br><br>METHODS: To focus on KW, we selected a subset of 81 out of 209 wheat varieties with similar GY, biomass, and kernel number (KN) and focused on their thousand-kernel weight (TKW). We genotyped them at eight kompetitive allele-specific polymerase chain reaction markers closely associated with TKW. Subsequently, we calibrated and evaluated the process-based model known as Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM-Wheat) based on a unique dataset including phenotyping, genotyping, climate, soil physicochemistry, and on-farm management information. We then used the calibrated APSIM-Wheat model to estimate TKW under eight allelic combinations (81 wheat varieties), seven sowing dates, and the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) designated SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, driven by climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, EC-Earth3-Veg, MIROC-ES2L, and UKESM1-0-LL.<br><br>RESULTS: The APSIM-Wheat model reliably simulated wheat TKW with a root mean square error (RMSE) of < 3.076&#xa0;g TK[-1] and R[2] of > 0.575 (P < 0.001). The analysis of variance based on the simulation output showed that allelic combination, climate scenario, and sowing date extremely significantly affected TKW (P < 0.001). The impact of the interaction allelic combination &#xd7; climate scenario on TKW was also significant (P < 0.05). Meanwhile, the variety parameters and their relative importance in the APSIM-Wheat model accorded with the expression of the allelic combinations. Under the projected climate scenarios, the favorable allelic combinations (TaCKX-D1b + Hap-7A-1 + Hap-T + Hap-6A-G + Hap-6B-1 + H1g + A1b for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) mitigated the negative effects of climate change on TKW.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The present study demonstrated that optimizing favorable allelic combinations can help achieve high wheat TKW. The findings of this study clarify the responses of wheat KW to diverse allelic combinations under projected climate change conditions. Additionally, the present study provides theoretical and practical reference for marker-assisted selection of high TKW in wheat breeding.}, }
@article {pmid36997783, year = {2023}, author = {Gao, Y and Khan, AA and Khan, SU and Ali, MAS and Huai, J}, title = {Investigating the rationale for low-carbon production techniques in agriculture for climate change mitigation and fostering sustainable development via achieving lowcarbon targets.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-19}, pmid = {36997783}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {In China, agricultural activities are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, ranking second only to another significant source. This presents a significant obstacle to reducing emissions and jeopardizes both the availability of food and the sustainable growth of agriculture. It is primarily the farmers who utilize cultivated land and are thus accountable for the initiation of these emissions. Farmers' role is significant in adopting green and low-carbon (LC) agricultural production practices, and their actions are directly tied to the achievement of the dual goals of carbon reduction. Understanding their motivations for engaging in LC production and the factors that influence their willingness to do so is important for both theory and practice. In this study, data was collected from 260 questionnaires in 13 counties across five major cities in Shaanxi Province. The purpose was to identify factors that impact farmers' motivation and willingness to engage in LC agriculture using linear regression analysis. A structural equation model was constructed to better understand the underlying mechanisms that influence farmers' actions towards LC farming practices. The study's findings indicate that (1) farmers' behavior towards LC production practices is notably impacted by internal motivation based on joy and internal motivation based on responsibility (IMR); (2) IMR has the most pronounced effect on farmers' adoption of LC production practices; (3) the internal motivation based on joy, IMR, behavior attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavior control are related to each other; and (4) the multi-group analysis of the data indicates that the impact of internal motivation based on joy and IMR on adopting sustainable farming practices may vary among different groups. It is essential to support farmers who have strong intrinsic motivation to engage in sustainable agriculture. Additionally, policymakers must promote positive attitudes towards sustainable farming to achieve the desired environmental (LC) objectives.}, }
@article {pmid36996987, year = {2023}, author = {Ashraf, N and Anas, A and Sukumaran, V and Gopinath, G and Idrees Babu, KK and Dinesh Kumar, PK}, title = {Recent advancements in coral health, microbiome interactions and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {878}, number = {}, pages = {163085}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163085}, pmid = {36996987}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Anthozoa ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; *Microbiota ; }, abstract = {Corals are the visible indicators of the disasters induced by global climate change and anthropogenic activities and have become a highly vulnerable ecosystem on the verge of extinction. Multiple stressors could act individually or synergistically which results in small to large scale tissue degradation, reduced coral covers, and makes the corals vulnerable to various diseases. The coralline diseases are like the Chicken pox in humans because they spread hastily throughout the coral ecosystem and can devastate the coral cover formed over centuries in an abbreviated time. The extinction of the entire reef ecosystem will alter the ocean and earth's amalgam of biogeochemical cycles causing a threat to the entire planet. The current manuscript provides an overview of the recent advancement in coral health, microbiome interactions and climate change. Culture dependent and independent approaches in studying the microbiome of corals, the diseases caused by microorganisms, and the reservoirs of coral pathogens are also discussed. Finally, we discuss the possibilities of protecting the coral reefs from diseases through microbiome transplantation and the capabilities of remote sensing in monitoring their health status.}, }
@article {pmid36996978, year = {2023}, author = {Muzammil, M and Zahid, A and Farooq, U and Saddique, N and Breuer, L}, title = {Climate change adaptation strategies for sustainable water management in the Indus basin of Pakistan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {878}, number = {}, pages = {163143}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163143}, pmid = {36996978}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Pakistan's agriculture faces water security challenges owing to insecure water supply and bad governance. The increasing food demand of the growing population and climate change vulnerability are future key threats to water sustainability. In this study, the current and future water demands as well as management strategies are evaluated for two climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the Punjab and Sindh provinces in the Indus basin of Pakistan. The RCPs are assessed for the regional climate model REMO2015, which was found to be the best-fitting model for the current situation in a preceding model comparison using Taylor diagrams. The status quo water consumption (CWRarea) is estimated to 184 km[3] yr[-1], consisting of 76 % blue water (freshwater from surface water and groundwater), 16 % green water (precipitation), and 8 % grey water (required to leach out the salts from the root zone). The results of the future CWRarea indicates that RCP2.6 is more vulnerable than RCP8.5 in view of water consumption as the vegetation period of crops is reduced under RCP8.5. For both pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), CWRarea increases gradually in the midterm (2031-2070) and becomes extreme at the end of the long term (2061-2090). The future CWRarea increases up to +73 % under the RCP2.6 and up to +68 % in the RCP8.5 compared to the status quo. However, the increase in CWRarea could be restrained up to -3 % compared to the status quo through the adaptation of alternative cropping patterns. The results further show that the future CWRarea under climate change could be even decreased by up to -19 % through the collective implementation of improved irrigation technologies and optimized cropping patterns.}, }
@article {pmid36996855, year = {2023}, author = {Kaminski, I}, title = {Does climate change threaten human right to health?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {e268-e269}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00058-X}, pmid = {36996855}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Right to Health ; Human Rights ; }, }
@article {pmid36996263, year = {2023}, author = {Fajardo, A and Gazol, A and Meynard, PM and Mayr, C and Martínez Pastur, GJ and Peri, PL and Camarero, JJ}, title = {Climate change-related growth improvements in a wide niche-breadth tree species across contrasting environments.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {131}, number = {6}, pages = {941-951}, pmid = {36996263}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {*Trees/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Carbon ; Droughts ; Water ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The vulnerability and responsiveness of forests to drought are immensely variable across biomes. Intraspecific tree responses to drought in species with wide niche breadths that grow across contrasting climatically environments might provide key information regarding forest resistance and changes in species distribution under climate change. Using a species with an exceptionally wide niche breath, we tested the hypothesis that tree populations thriving in dry environments are more resistant to drought than those growing in moist locations.<br><br>METHODS: We determined temporal trends in tree radial growth of 12 tree populations of Nothofagus antarctica (Nothofagaceae) located across a sharp precipitation gradient (annual precipitation of 500-2000 mm) in Chile and Argentina. Using dendrochronological methods, we fitted generalized additive mixed-effect models to predict the annual basal area increment as a function of year and dryness (De Martonne aridity index). We also measured carbon and oxygen isotope signals (and estimated intrinsic water-use efficiency) to provide potential physiological causes for tree growth responses to drought.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: We found unexpected improvements in growth during 1980-1998 in moist sites, while growth responses in dry sites were mixed. All populations, independent of site moisture, showed an increase in their intrinsic water-use efficiency in recent decades, a tendency that seemed to be explained by an increase in the photosynthetic rate instead of drought-induced stomatal closure, given that &#x3b4;18O did not change with time.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The absence of drought-induced negative effects on tree growth in a tree species with a wide niche breadth is promising because it might relate to the causal mechanisms tree species possess to face ongoing drought events. We suggest that the drought resistance of N. antarctica might be attributable to its low stature and relatively low growth rate.}, }
@article {pmid36996069, year = {2023}, author = {Kuang, H and Li, J and Zuo, H and Ye, X}, title = {Research on climate change based on carbonate porosity analysis in Jinping, China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {e0281630}, pmid = {36996069}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Porosity ; China ; *Carbonates ; Image Processing, Computer-Assisted ; }, abstract = {In this paper, climate change in the Jinping area is investigated. The climate change trend in the Jinping area is studied by plotting the porosity value of the carbonate rocks as a curve. By comparing the curve established using the climate change data from published articles, it is found that the B value curve obtained using the saddle line is the closest to the curve established using the climate change data from published articles. This shows that the carbonate porosity in the Jinping area obtained using an image analysis technique can be used for climate change research.}, }
@article {pmid36993020, year = {2022}, author = {Raina, SK and Kumar, R}, title = {Sustainability, criticality, transition, fragility; pandemics, war, climate change and resource restriction - A recipe for the end.}, journal = {Journal of family medicine and primary care}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {6630-6632}, doi = {10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_1057_22}, pmid = {36993020}, issn = {2249-4863}, abstract = {The criticality of the system or processes is in the values that the system or process represents. The acceleration to transition point, to fragility and ruin is dependent on our acceptance of an understanding of criticality. Pandemics, wars or climate change; as diverse as situations can be, point to this lack of a collective understanding of criticality of real-world situations.}, }
@article {pmid36991071, year = {2023}, author = {Jones, MW and Peters, GP and Gasser, T and Andrew, RM and Schwingshackl, C and Gütschow, J and Houghton, RA and Friedlingstein, P and Pongratz, J and Le Quéré, C}, title = {National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {155}, pmid = {36991071}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {NE/V01417X/1//RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; 821003//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Societal Challenges | H2020 Environment (H2020 Societal Challenges - Climate Action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials)/ ; 820846//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Societal Challenges | H2020 Environment (H2020 Societal Challenges - Climate Action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials)/ ; 101003536//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Societal Challenges | H2020 Environment (H2020 Societal Challenges - Climate Action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials)/ ; 776810//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Societal Challenges | H2020 Environment (H2020 Societal Challenges - Climate Action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials)/ ; 820846//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Societal Challenges | H2020 Environment (H2020 Societal Challenges - Climate Action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials)/ ; 101003536//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Societal Challenges | H2020 Environment (H2020 Societal Challenges - Climate Action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials)/ ; 776810//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Societal Challenges | H2020 Environment (H2020 Societal Challenges - Climate Action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials)/ ; 821003//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Societal Challenges | H2020 Environment (H2020 Societal Challenges - Climate Action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials)/ ; 821003//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Societal Challenges | H2020 Environment (H2020 Societal Challenges - Climate Action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials)/ ; RP\R1\191063//Royal Society/ ; RP\R1\191063//Royal Society/ ; }, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Methane ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have made significant contributions to global warming since the pre-industrial period and are therefore targeted in international climate policy. There is substantial interest in tracking and apportioning national contributions to climate change and informing equitable commitments to decarbonisation. Here, we introduce a new dataset of national contributions to global warming caused by historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide during the years 1851-2021, which are consistent with the latest findings of the IPCC. We calculate the global mean surface temperature response to historical emissions of the three gases, including recent refinements which account for the short atmospheric lifetime of CH4. We report national contributions to global warming resulting from emissions of each gas, including a disaggregation to fossil and land use sectors. This dataset will be updated annually as national emissions datasets are updated.}, }
@article {pmid36990691, year = {2023}, author = {Mata-Guel, EO and Soh, MCK and Butler, CW and Morris, RJ and Razgour, O and Peh, KS}, title = {Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {98}, number = {4}, pages = {1200-1224}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12950}, pmid = {36990691}, issn = {1469-185X}, support = {//Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog&#xed;a/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Forests ; Biodiversity ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.}, }
@article {pmid36989996, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, J and Dong, H and Li, M and Wu, Y and Zhang, C and Chen, J and Yang, Z and Lin, G and Liu, L and Yang, J}, title = {Projecting the excess mortality due to heatwave and its characteristics under climate change, population and adaptation scenarios.}, journal = {International journal of hygiene and environmental health}, volume = {250}, number = {}, pages = {114157}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijheh.2023.114157}, pmid = {36989996}, issn = {1618-131X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Risk ; *Global Warming ; Infrared Rays ; China/epidemiology ; Hot Temperature ; Mortality ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Heatwaves have significant adverse effects on human health. The frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase dramatically, in the context of global warming. However, there are few comprehensive assessments of the health impact of heatwaves considering different definitions, and their characteristics under climate change scenarios.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare future excess mortality related to heatwaves among different definitions under climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in China and further explore the mortality burden associated with heatwave characteristics.<br><br>METHODS: Daily data during 2010-2019 were collected in Guangzhou, China. We adopted nine common heatwave definitions and applied quasi-Poisson models to estimate the effects of heatwaves and their characteristics' impact on mortality. We then projected the excess mortality associated with heatwaves and their characteristics concerning climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: The relative risks of the nine common heatwave definitions ranged from 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.10) to 1.24 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.35). Heatwave-related excess mortality will consistently increase in the future decades considering multiple heatwave definitions, with more rapidly increasing rates under the Shared Socioeconomic Path5-8.5 and non-adaptability scenarios. Regarding heatwave characteristics, the intensity is the main factor involved in the threat of heatwaves. The increasing trend of characteristic-related mortality burden is similar to that of heatwaves, and the mortality burden caused by the duration of the heatwaves was the largest among all characteristics.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of heatwaves and their characteristics on public health under various climate change scenarios, population changes, and adaptive assumptions. The results may provide important public health implications for policymakers in planning climate change adaptation and mitigation policies, and implementing specific plans.}, }
@article {pmid36988801, year = {2023}, author = {Qiao, H and Zhang, J}, title = {Enhancing global thinking can reduce the misconception of accumulation: A potential way to mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {20}, pages = {58618-58629}, pmid = {36988801}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {T2192932//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Global Warming ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {Climate change and global warming have long been attention and concern all over the world. However, there is always a debate about when and to what degree to take action like reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Recently, researchers found that the public has misconceptions about climate dynamics, which might be a reason for people do not support prompt mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. The core problem of misconceptions is the stock-flow (SF) problem, which refers to the difficulty of inferring the behavior of a stock variable given information regarding its inflows and outflows. We elaborated on the idea that global thinking is beneficial for comprehending SF problems and proposed that global thinking enhancing display based on highlighting the areas of difference could be a possible way to shift one's thinking process to the right one, which was proved by two studies. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid36987459, year = {2023}, author = {Khatib, AN}, title = {Climate Change and Travel: Harmonizing to Abate Impact.}, journal = {Current infectious disease reports}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {77-85}, pmid = {36987459}, issn = {1523-3847}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: With climate change being the single biggest health threat facing humanity, this review aims to identify the climate-sensitive health risks to the traveler and to recognize the role that travel plays in contributing to the detrimental effects of climate change. With this understanding, adaptations for transformational action can be made.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Travel and tourism, including transportation, food consumption, and accommodation, is responsible for a large percentage of the world's carbon emissions which is contributing to the climate change crisis at an alarming rate. Climate change is a health emergency that is resulting in a rise of significant health impacts to the traveler including increased heat illnesses; food-, water-, and vector-borne diseases; and increasing risk of exposure to emerging infectious diseases. Patterns of future travel and destination choices are likely to change due to climactic factors such as temperature and extreme weather events, forced migration, degradation, and disappearance of popular and natural tourist destinations.<br><br>SUMMARY: Global warming is and will continue to alter the landscape of travel medicine with expansion of transmission seasons and geographic ranges of disease, increased risk of infections and harmful marine toxins, and introduction of emerging infections to na&#xef;ve populations. This will have implications for pre-travel counseling in assessing risk and discussing the environmental influences on travel. Travelers and stakeholders should be engaged in a dialogue to understand their "climate footprint," to innovate sustainable solutions, and be empowered to make immediate, conscientious, and responsible choices to abate the impact of breaching critical temperature thresholds.}, }
@article {pmid36987063, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, HT and Wang, WT}, title = {Prediction of the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Species Meconopsis punicea Maxim under Future Climate Change Based on Four Species Distribution Models.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36987063}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {32260293//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 21JR11RA023//the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province/ ; 2022QB-017//the Scientific Research Project for Colleges and Universities of Gansu Province/ ; 20XJAZH006//the Research Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education/ ; 31920220061//the Foundation Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; 31920220041//the Foundation Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change increases the extinction risk of species, and studying the impact of climate change on endangered species is of great significance to biodiversity conservation. In this study, the endangered plant Meconopsis punicea Maxim (M. punicea) was selected as the research object. Four species distribution models (SDMs): the generalized linear model, the generalized boosted regression tree model, random forest and flexible discriminant analysis were applied to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climates scenarios. Among them, two emission scenarios of sharing socio-economic pathways (SSPs; i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and two global circulation models (GCMs) were considered for future climate conditions. Our results showed that temperature seasonality, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important factors shaping the potential distribution of M. punicea. The prediction of the four SDMs consistently indicated that the current potential distribution area of M. punicea is concentrated between 29.02° N-39.06° N and 91.40° E-105.89° E. Under future climate change, the potential distribution of M. punicea will expand from the southeast to the northwest, and the expansion area under SSP5-8.5 would be wider than that under SSP2-4.5. In addition, there were significant differences in the potential distribution of M. punicea predicted by different SDMs, with slight differences caused by GCMs and emission scenarios. Our study suggests using agreement results from different SDMs as the basis for developing conservation strategies to improve reliability.}, }
@article {pmid36987010, year = {2023}, author = {Pineda, M and Barón, M}, title = {Assessment of Black Rot in Oilseed Rape Grown under Climate Change Conditions Using Biochemical Methods and Computer Vision.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36987010}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {RTI2018-094652-B-I00//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n, Espa&#xf1;a/ ; Proyecto Intramural 202340E012//Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&#xed;ficas/ ; }, abstract = {Global warming is a challenge for plants and pathogens, involving profound changes in the physiology of both contenders to adapt to the new environmental conditions and to succeed in their interaction. Studies have been conducted on the behavior of oilseed rape plants and two races (1 and 4) of the bacterium Xanthomonas campestris pv. campestris (Xcc) and their interaction to anticipate our response in the possible future climate. Symptoms caused by both races of Xcc were very similar to each other under any climatic condition assayed, although the bacterial count from infected leaves differed for each race. Climate change caused an earlier onset of Xcc symptoms by at least 3 days, linked to oxidative stress and a change in pigment composition. Xcc infection aggravated the leaf senescence already induced by climate change. To identify Xcc-infected plants early under any climatic condition, four classifying algorithms were trained with parameters obtained from the images of green fluorescence, two vegetation indices and thermography recorded on Xcc-symptomless leaves. Classification accuracies were above 0.85 out of 1.0 in all cases, with k-nearest neighbor analysis and support vector machines performing best under the tested climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36986993, year = {2023}, author = {Miranda-Apodaca, J and Artetxe, U and Aguado, I and Martin-Souto, L and Ramirez-Garcia, A and Lacuesta, M and Becerril, JM and Estonba, A and Ortiz-Barredo, A and Hernández, A and Zarraonaindia, I and Pérez-López, U}, title = {Stress Response to Climate Change and Postharvest Handling in Two Differently Pigmented Lettuce Genotypes: Impact on Alternaria alternata Invasion and Mycotoxin Production.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36986993}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {IT-1233-19; IT-1571-22; IT1648-22; IT1682-22//Basque Government/ ; //ELIKA - Basque Foundation for Agro-Food Safety/ ; }, abstract = {Many species of Alternaria are important pathogens that cause plant diseases and postharvest rots. They lead to significant economic losses in agriculture and affect human and animal health due to their capacity to produce mycotoxins. Therefore, it is necessary to study the factors that can result in an increase in A. alternata. In this study, we discuss the mechanism by which phenol content protects from A. alternata, since the red oak leaf cultivar (containing higher phenols) showed lower invasion than the green one, Batavia, and no mycotoxin production. A climate change scenario enhanced fungal growth in the most susceptible cultivar, green lettuce, likely because elevated temperature and CO2 levels decrease plant N content, modifying the C/N ratio. Finally, while the abundance of the fungi was maintained at similar levels after keeping the lettuces for four days at 4 °C, this postharvest handling triggered TeA and TEN mycotoxin synthesis, but only in the green cultivar. Therefore, the results demonstrated that invasion and mycotoxin production are cultivar- and temperature-dependent. Further research should be directed to search for resistant cultivars and effective postharvest strategies to reduce the toxicological risk and economic losses related to this fungus, which are expected to increase in a climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid36986959, year = {2023}, author = {Khan, H and Mamrutha, HM and Mishra, CN and Krishnappa, G and Sendhil, R and Parkash, O and Joshi, AK and Chatrath, R and Tyagi, BS and Singh, G and Singh, GP}, title = {Harnessing High Yield Potential in Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under Climate Change Scenario.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36986959}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {CRSCIIWBRCL202000100194//Indian Council of Agricultural Research/ ; }, abstract = {Wheat is a major staple food crop for food security in India and South Asia. The current rate (0.8-1.2%) of genetic gain in wheat is significantly shorter than the 2.4% needed to meet future demand. The changing climate and increased yield loss due to factors such as terminal heat stress necessitate the need for climate-resilient practices to sustain wheat production. At ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research in Karnal, Haryana, India, a new High Yield Potential Trial (HYPT) was conceptualized and subsequently conducted at six locations in the highly productive North Western Plain Zone (NWPZ). An attempt was made to harness higher wheat yields through the best pipeline genotypes suitable for early sowing and modified agronomic practices to explore the feasibility of a new approach that is profitable to farmers. The modified agronomic practices included like early sowing, application of 150% recommended dose of fertilizers, and two sprays of growth regulators (Chlormaquate chloride and Tebuconazole) to prevent lodging. The mean yield in the HYPT was 19.4% superior compared to the best trials conducted during the normal sowing time. A highly positive and significant correlation of grain yield with grain filling duration (0.51), biomass (0.73), harvest index (0.75), normalized difference vegetation Index (0.27), chlorophyll content index (0.32), and 1000-grain weight (0.62) was observed. An increased return of USD 201.95/ha was realized in the HYPT when compared to normal sowing conditions. This study proves that new integrated practices have the potential to provide the best profitable yields in wheat in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36986946, year = {2023}, author = {Torres, E and García-Fernández, A and Iñigo, D and Lara-Romero, C and Morente-López, J and Prieto-Benítez, S and Rubio Teso, ML and Iriondo, JM}, title = {Facilitated Adaptation as A Conservation Tool in the Present Climate Change Context: A Methodological Guide.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36986946}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {CGL2016-77377-R//Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a novel threat to biodiversity that urgently requires the development of adequate conservation strategies. Living organisms respond to environmental change by migrating to locations where their ecological niche is preserved or by adapting to the new environment. While the first response has been used to develop, discuss and implement the strategy of assisted migration, facilitated adaptation is only beginning to be considered as a potential approach. Here, we present a review of the conceptual framework for facilitated adaptation, integrating advances and methodologies from different disciplines. Briefly, facilitated adaptation involves a population reinforcement that introduces beneficial alleles to enable the evolutionary adaptation of a focal population to pressing environmental conditions. To this purpose, we propose two methodological approaches. The first one (called pre-existing adaptation approach) is based on using pre-adapted genotypes existing in the focal population, in other populations, or even in closely related species. The second approach (called de novo adaptation approach) aims to generate new pre-adapted genotypes from the diversity present in the species through artificial selection. For each approach, we present a stage-by-stage procedure, with some techniques that can be used for its implementation. The associated risks and difficulties of each approach are also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid36982052, year = {2023}, author = {Abou Kamar, M and Aliane, N and Elbestawi, I and Agina, MF and Alsetoohy, O}, title = {Are Coastal Hotels Ready for Climate Change? The Case of Alexandria, Egypt.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36982052}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Egypt ; *Sea Level Rise ; Geographic Information Systems ; Middle East ; }, abstract = {Climate change casts a shadow on the tourism industry in Egypt in general, and on coastal hotels in particular, as the coastal areas of Egypt have been classified as the most vulnerable to climate change in the Middle East. As such, mitigating the negative impacts and threats of climate change requires an assessment of the vulnerability of coastal hotels and the extent to which adaptation measures are applied. Accordingly, this study applied a hybrid methodology to achieve three main objectives. First, to evaluate Alexandria's vulnerability to future climate change (at the destination level) by analyzing the recent climatic trends and expected scenarios. Second, to assess the vulnerability of Alexandria's coastal hotels to climate change (sector level) using satellite images, aerial mapping, remote sensing, and geographic information systems (GIS). Third, to explore how coastal hotels are adapting to the risks of climate change using the four business-focused adaptation measures (i.e., technical, managerial, policies, and awareness-raising). The findings of the study revealed and confirmed that the hotel sector in Alexandria is threatened by sea level rise (SLR). Four hotels are at risk of inundation, and the extent of hotels at risk will increase with future scenarios of SLR. On the other hand, the results of examining the adaptation measures of 36 hotels indicated that the scope of the adaptation measures differed significantly between hotels due to factors such as hotel category, size, duration of operation, and EMS status, but overall, the scope of application was more comprehensive and varied than expected. Technical adaptation measures were the most common and applied by the majority of hotels in Alexandria. The results of this study should help figure out what adaptation measures coastal hotels should take and show policymakers where they should focus their adaptation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid36982003, year = {2023}, author = {Ratwatte, P and Wehling, H and Phalkey, R and Weston, D}, title = {Prioritising Climate Change Mitigation Behaviours and Exploring Public Health Co-Benefits: A Delphi Study.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36982003}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Public Health ; Climate Change ; Delphi Technique ; *COVID-19/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change requires urgent action; however, it can be challenging to identify individual-level behaviours that should be prioritised for maximum impact. The study aimed to prioritise climate change mitigation behaviours according to their impacts on climate change and public health, and to identify associated barriers and facilitators-exploring the impact of observed behaviour shifts associated with COVID-19 in the UK. A three-round Delphi study and expert workshop were conducted: An expert panel rated mitigation behaviours impacted by COVID-19 in relation to their importance regarding health impacts and climate change mitigation using a five-point Likert scale. Consensus on the importance of target behaviours was determined by interquartile ranges. In total, seven target behaviours were prioritised: installing double/triple glazing; installing cavity wall insulation; installing solid wall insulation; moving away from meat/emission heavy diets; reducing the number of cars per household; walking shorter journeys; and reducing day/weekend leisure car journeys. Barriers related to the costs associated with performing behaviours and a lack of complementary policy-regulated subsidies. The target behaviours are consistent with recommendations from previous research. To ensure public uptake, interventions should address behavioural facilitators and barriers, dovetail climate change mitigation with health co-benefits and account for the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on these behaviours.}, }
@article {pmid36981875, year = {2023}, author = {Li, Y and Qin, X and Jin, Z and Liu, Y}, title = {Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation Indices over the Qilian Mountains under Global Warming.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36981875}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Climate ; China ; Climate Change ; Ice Cover ; }, abstract = {The Qilian Mountains are a climate-sensitive area in northwest China, and extreme precipitation events have an important impact on its ecological environment. Therefore, considering the global warming scenario, it is highly important to project the extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the future. This study is based on three CMIP6 models (CESM2, EC-Earth3, and KACE-1-0-G). A bias correction algorithm (QDM) was used to correct the precipitation outputs of the models. The eight extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains during the historical period and in the future were calculated using meteorological software (ClimPACT2), and the performance of the CMIP6 models to simulate the extreme precipitation indices of the Qilian Mountains in the historical period was evaluated. Results revealed that: (1) The corrected CMIP6 models could simulate the changes in extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the historical period relatively well, and the corrected CESM2 displayed better simulation as compared to the other two CMIP6 models. The CMIP6 models performed well while simulating R10mm (CC is higher than 0.71) and PRCPTOT (CC is higher than 0.84). (2) The changes in the eight extreme precipitation indices were greater with the enhancement of the SSP scenario. The growth rate of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century under SSP585 is significantly higher than the other two SSP scenarios. The increment of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains mainly comes from the increase in heavy precipitation. (3) The Qilian Mountains will become wetter in the 21st century, especially in the central and eastern regions. The largest increase in precipitation intensity will be observed in the western Qilian Mountains. Additionally, total precipitation will also increase in the middle and end of the 21st century under SSP585. Furthermore, the precipitation increment of the Qilian Mountains will increase with the altitude in the middle and end of the 21st century. This study aims to provide a reference for the changes in extreme precipitation events, glacier mass balance, and water resources in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid36981873, year = {2023}, author = {Tarinc, A and Ergun, GS and Aytekin, A and Keles, A and Ozbek, O and Keles, H and Yayla, O}, title = {Effect of Climate Change Belief and the New Environmental Paradigm (NEP) on Eco-Tourism Attitudes of Tourists: Moderator Role of Green Self-Identity.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36981873}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Tourism ; Climate Change ; Attitude ; *Medical Tourism ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {This research has been conducted to determine the effect of tourists' beliefs of climate change on the NEP and ecotourism attitudes. In addition to this purpose, the moderator role of green self-identity in the effect of the NEP on ecological attitudes has also been examined. The research data were obtained from the tourists visiting the Alanya destination, which is one of the centers that attract the most tourists in Turkey. When the results of the research were examined, it could be determined that the belief in climate change is effective on all dimensions of the NEP, and similarly, all dimensions of the NEP have also affected the tourists' ecological attitude. Further, green self-identity has a moderator role in the effect of ecocentric and anthropocentric sub-dimensions on eco-tourism attitudes. As a consequence of the findings, a number of theoretical and practical implications have been developed for sector managers, destination management organizations, and academicians.}, }
@article {pmid36981774, year = {2023}, author = {Nakamura, S and Abanokova, K and Dang, HH and Takamatsu, S and Pei, C and Prospere, D}, title = {Is Climate Change Slowing the Urban Escalator Out of Poverty? Evidence from Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36981774}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; Colombia ; Chile ; *Poverty ; Urban Population ; Indonesia ; *Climate Change ; Elevators and Escalators ; }, abstract = {While urbanization has great potential to facilitate poverty reduction, climate shocks represent a looming threat to such upward mobility. This paper empirically analyzes the effects of climatic risks on the function of urban agglomerations to support poor households' escape from poverty. Combining household surveys with climatic datasets, our analyses of Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia find that households in large metropolitan areas are more likely to escape from poverty, indicating better access to economic opportunities in those areas. However, climate shocks such as extreme rainfalls and high flood risks significantly reduce upward mobility, thus offsetting such benefits of urban agglomerations. The findings underscore the need to enhance resilience among the urban poor to allow them to fully utilize the benefits of urban agglomerations.}, }
@article {pmid36981685, year = {2023}, author = {Comi, M and Becot, F and Bendixsen, C}, title = {Automation, Climate Change, and the Future of Farm Work: Cross-Disciplinary Lessons for Studying Dynamic Changes in Agricultural Health and Safety.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36981685}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Farms ; *Climate Change ; *Agriculture ; Workplace ; Automation ; }, abstract = {In this review, we first assess the state of agricultural health and safety research as it pertains to the dynamic challenges facing automating agriculture on a warming planet. Then, we turn to social science fields such as rural sociology, science and technology studies, and environmental studies to leverage relevant insights on the introduction of new technologies, environmental risks, and associated workplace hazards. Increased rates of automation in agriculture alongside new risks associated with climate change create the need for anticipatory governance and adaptive research to study novel mechanisms of worker health and safety. The use of the PRISMA framework led to the 137 articles for our review. We identify three themes in the literature on agricultural health and safety: (1) adoption outcomes, (2) discrete cases of health risks, and (3) an emphasis on care and wellbeing in literature on dairy automation Our review led to the identification of research gaps, noting that current research (a) tends to examine these forces separately, instead of together, (b) has not made robust examination of these forces as socially embedded, and (c) has hesitated to examine the broad, transferable themes for how these forces work across industries. In response to these gaps, we suggest that attention to outside disciplines may provide agricultural health and safety research with a toolset to examine needed inquiry into the multiplicity of experiences of rural stakeholders, the industry specific problems arising from automation and climate change, and the socially embedded aspects of agricultural work in the future.}, }
@article {pmid36981615, year = {2023}, author = {Shrikhande, SS and Merten, S and Cambaco, O and Lee, T and Lakshmanasamy, R and Röösli, M and Dalvie, MA and Utzinger, J and Cissé, G}, title = {"Climate Change and Health?": Knowledge and Perceptions among Key Stakeholders in Puducherry, India.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36981615}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; India ; *Health Policy ; Public Health ; Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {Climate change has far-reaching impacts on human health, with low- and middle-income countries, including India, being particularly vulnerable. While there have been several advances in the policy space with the development of adaptation plans, little remains known about how stakeholders who are central to the strengthening and implementation of these plans perceive this topic. We conducted a qualitative study employing key interviews with 16 medical doctors, researchers, environmentalists and government officials working on the climate change agenda from Puducherry, India. The findings were analysed using the framework method, with data-driven thematic analysis. We elucidated that despite elaborating the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on health, there remains a perceived gap in education and knowledge about the topic among participants. Knowledge of the public health burden and vulnerabilities influenced the perceived health risks from climate change, with some level of scepticism on the impacts on non-communicable diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases. There was also a felt need for multi-level awareness and intervention programmes targeting all societal levels along with stakeholder recommendations to fill these gaps. The findings of this study should be taken into consideration for strengthening the region's climate change and health adaptation policy. In light of limited research on this topic, our study provides an improved understanding of how key stakeholders perceive the impacts of climate change on health in India.}, }
@article {pmid36981588, year = {2023}, author = {Hou, P and Deng, X and Wang, J and Xue, L and Zhang, Y and Xu, T and Xue, L and Yang, L}, title = {Fertilization and Global Warming Impact on Paddy CH4 Emissions.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36981588}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Agriculture/methods ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Soil ; Fertilizers/analysis ; *Oryza ; Methane ; Fertilization ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to assess the influence of experimental warming and fertilization on rice yield and paddy methane emissions.<br><br>METHODS: A free-air temperature increase system was used for the experimental warming treatment (ET), while the control treatment used ambient temperature (AC). Each treatment contained two fertilization strategies, (i) normal fertilization with N, P and K fertilizers (CN) and (ii) without N fertilizer input (CK).<br><br>RESULTS: The yield was remarkably dictated by fertilization (p < 0.01), but not warming. Its value with CN treatment increased by 76.24% compared to CK. Also, the interactive effect of warming and fertilization on CH4 emissions was insignificant. The seasonal emissions from warming increased by 36.93% compared to AC, while the values under CN treatment increased by 79.92% compared to CK. Accordingly, the ET-CN treatment obtained the highest CH4 emissions (178.08 kg ha[-1]), notably higher than the other treatments. Also, the results showed that soil fertility is the main driver affecting CH4 emissions rather than soil microorganisms.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Fertilization aggravates the increasing effect of warming on paddy methane emissions. It is a daunting task to optimize fertilization to ensure yield and reduce methane emissions amid global warming.}, }
@article {pmid36981104, year = {2023}, author = {Adekanmbi, T and Wang, X and Basheer, S and Nawaz, RA and Pang, T and Hu, Y and Liu, S}, title = {Assessing Future Climate Change Impacts on Potato Yields - A Case Study for Prince Edward Island, Canada.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {36981104}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {Crop yields are adversely affected by climate change; therefore, it is crucial to develop climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of increasing climate variability on the agriculture system to ensure food security. As one of the largest potato-producing provinces in Canada, Prince Edward Island (PEI) has recently experienced significant instability in potato production. PEI's local farmers and stakeholders are extremely concerned about the prospects for the future of potato farming industries in the context of climate change. This study aims to use the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) potato model to simulate future potato yields under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate scenarios (including SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The study evaluates the combined effects of changing climatic conditions at local scales (i.e., warming temperature and changing precipitation patterns) and increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere. The results indicate future significant declines in potato yield in PEI under the current farming practices. In particular, under the high-emission scenarios (e.g., SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), the potato yield in PEI would decline by 48% and 60% in the 2070s and by 63% and 80% by 2090s; even under the low-emission scenarios (i.e., SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6), the potato yield in PEI would still decline by 6-10%. This implies that it is important to develop effective climate adaptation measures (e.g., adjusting farming practices and introducing supplemental irrigation plans) to ensure the long-term sustainability of potato production in PEI.}, }
@article {pmid36979127, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, BX and Zhu, L and Ma, G and Najar-Rodriguez, A and Zhang, JP and Zhang, F and Avila, GA and Ma, CS}, title = {Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth Cadra figulilella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36979127}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {CARS29-bc-4//Chinese Agriculture Research System/ ; Y2022LM23//Fundamental Research Funds of CAAS/ ; 202103250079//Chinese Scholarship Council/ ; }, abstract = {Global trade facilitates the introduction of invasive species that can cause irreversible damage to agriculture and the environment, as well as stored food products. The raisin moth (Cadra figulilella) is an invasive pest that poses a significant threat to fruits and dried foods. Climate change may exacerbate this threat by expanding moth's distribution to new areas. In this study, we used CLIMEX and MaxEnt niche modeling tools to assess the potential global distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate change scenarios. Our models projected that the area of suitable distribution for the raisin moth could increase by up to 36.37% by the end of this century under high emission scenario. We also found that excessive precipitation decreased the probability of raisin moth establishment and that the optimum temperature range for the species during the wettest quarter of the year was 0-18 °C. These findings highlight the need for future research to utilize a combined modeling approach to predict the distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate conditions more accurately. Our results could be used for environmental risk assessments, as well as to inform international trade decisions and negotiations on phytosanitary measures with regards to this invasive species.}, }
@article {pmid36977742, year = {2023}, author = {Seidel, L and Broman, E and Nilsson, E and Ståhle, M and Ketzer, M and Pérez-Martínez, C and Turner, S and Hylander, S and Pinhassi, J and Forsman, A and Dopson, M}, title = {Climate change-related warming reduces thermal sensitivity and modifies metabolic activity of coastal benthic bacterial communities.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {855-869}, pmid = {36977742}, issn = {1751-7370}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; Hot Temperature ; Bacteria/genetics ; }, abstract = {Besides long-term average temperature increases, climate change is projected to result in a higher frequency of marine heatwaves. Coastal zones are some of the most productive and vulnerable ecosystems, with many stretches already under anthropogenic pressure. Microorganisms in coastal areas are central to marine energy and nutrient cycling and therefore, it is important to understand how climate change will alter these ecosystems. Using a long-term heated bay (warmed for 50 years) in comparison with an unaffected adjacent control bay and an experimental short-term thermal (9 days at 6-35 °C) incubation experiment, this study provides new insights into how coastal benthic water and surface sediment bacterial communities respond to temperature change. Benthic bacterial communities in the two bays reacted differently to temperature increases with productivity in the heated bay having a broader thermal tolerance compared with that in the control bay. Furthermore, the transcriptional analysis showed that the heated bay benthic bacteria had higher transcript numbers related to energy metabolism and stress compared to the control bay, while short-term elevated temperatures in the control bay incubation experiment induced a transcript response resembling that observed in the heated bay field conditions. In contrast, a reciprocal response was not observed for the heated bay community RNA transcripts exposed to lower temperatures indicating a potential tipping point in community response may have been reached. In summary, long-term warming modulates the performance, productivity, and resilience of bacterial communities in response to warming.}, }
@article {pmid36976697, year = {2023}, author = {Salvador Costa, MJ and Melo, P and Azeiteiro, U and Carvalho, S and Ryan, R}, title = {Nursing Interventions to Reduce Health Risks from Climate Change Impact in Urban Areas: A Scoping Review Protocol.}, journal = {Nursing reports (Pavia, Italy)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {496-505}, pmid = {36976697}, issn = {2039-4403}, abstract = {Considering that the public health sector has been considered as a key stakeholder in climate action, it seems important to understand what interventions are carried out globally by trusted professionals such as nurses engaged in health promotion and environmental health in optimizing the health of individuals, families, and communities toward the dissemination of lifestyle decarbonization and guidance on healthier climate-related choices. The objective of this review was to understand the extent and type of evidence related to the community-based interventions of nurses that are being led or have been implemented thus far with the aim of reducing the health risks from climate change impact in urban areas. The present protocol follows the JBI methodological framework. Databases to be searched include PubMed, MEDLINE complete, CINAHL, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, SciELO (Scientific Electronic Library Online), and BASE (Bielefeld Academic Search Engine). Hand searched references were also considered for inclusion. This review will include quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods studies from 2008 onwards. Systematic reviews, text, opinion papers, and the gray literature in English and Portuguese were also considered. Mapping the nurse led interventions or those that have been implemented thus far in urban areas may lead to further reviews that may help identify the best practices and gaps within the field. The results are presented in tabular format alongside a narrative summary.}, }
@article {pmid36975944, year = {2023}, author = {Yu, XT and Yang, FL and Da, W and Li, YC and Xi, HM and Cotton, AM and Zhang, HH and Duan, K and Xu, ZB and Gong, ZX and Wang, WL and Hu, SJ}, title = {Species Richness of Papilionidae Butterflies (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea) in the Hengduan Mountains and Its Future Shifts under Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36975944}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {41761011//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; SDZXWJZ01013//Biodiversity Conservation Programme of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, China/ ; }, abstract = {The family of Papilionidae (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea) is a group of butterflies with high ecological and conservation value. The Hengduan Mountains (HMDs) in Southwest China is an important diversity centre for these butterflies. However, the spatial distribution pattern and the climate vulnerability of Papilionidae butterflies in the HDMs remain unknown to date. The lack of such knowledge has already become an obstacle in formulating effective butterfly conservation strategies. The present research compiled a 59-species dataset with 1938 occurrence points. The Maxent model was applied to analyse the spatial pattern of species richness in subfamilies Parnassiinae and Papilioninae, as well as to predict the response under the influence of climate change. The spatial pattern of both subfamilies in the HDMs has obvious elevation prevalence, with Parnassiinae concentrated in the subalpine to alpine areas (2500-5500 m) in western Sichuan, northwestern Yunnan and eastern Tibet, while Papilioninae is concentrated in the low- to medium-elevation areas (1500-3500 m) in the river valleys of western Yunnan and western Sichuan. Under the influence of climate change, both subfamilies would exhibit northward and upward range shifts. The majority of Parnassiinae species would experience drastic habitat contraction, resulting in lower species richness across the HDMs. In contrast, most Papilioninae species would experience habitat expansion, and the species richness would also increase significantly. The findings of this research should provide new insights and a clue for butterfly diversity and climatic vulnerability in southwestern China. Future conservation efforts should be focused on species with habitat contraction, narrow-ranged distribution and endemicity with both in situ and ex situ measures, especially in protected areas. Commercialised collecting targeting these species must also be regulated by future legislation.}, }
@article {pmid36975927, year = {2023}, author = {Cordeiro, GD and Dötterl, S}, title = {Floral Scents in Bee-Pollinated Buckwheat and Oilseed Rape under a Global Warming Scenario.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36975927}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {M2676-B29//FWF Austrian Science Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Many wild plants and crops are pollinated by insects, which often use floral scents to locate their host plants. The production and emission of floral scents are temperature-dependent; however, little is known about how global warming affects scent emissions and the attraction of pollinators. We used a combination of chemical analytical and electrophysiological approaches to quantify the influence of a global warming scenario (+5 °C in this century) on the floral scent emissions of two important crop species, i.e., buckwheat (Fagopyrum esculentum) and oilseed rape (Brassica napus), and to test whether compounds that are potentially different between the treatments can be detected by their bee pollinators (Apis mellifera and Bombus terrestris). We found that only buckwheat was affected by increased temperatures. Independent of temperature, the scent of oilseed rape was dominated by p-anisaldehyde and linalool, with no differences in relative scent composition and the total amount of scent. Buckwheat emitted 2.4 ng of scent per flower and hour at optimal temperatures, dominated by 2- and 3-methylbutanoic acid (46%) and linalool (10%), and at warmer temperatures threefold less scent (0.7 ng/flower/hour), with increased contributions of 2- and 3-methylbutanoic acid (73%) to the total scent and linalool and other compounds being absent. The antennae of the pollinators responded to various buckwheat floral scent compounds, among them compounds that disappeared at increased temperatures or were affected in their (relative) amounts. Our results highlight that increased temperatures differentially affect floral scent emissions of crop plants and that, in buckwheat, the temperature-induced changes in floral scent emissions affect the olfactory perception of the flowers by bees. Future studies should test whether these differences in olfactory perception translate into different attractiveness of buckwheat flowers to bees.}, }
@article {pmid36975274, year = {2023}, author = {Gameiro, F and Ferreira, P and Faria, M}, title = {Association between Social and Emotional Competencies and Quality of Life in the Context of War, Pandemic and Climate Change.}, journal = {Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36975274}, issn = {2076-328X}, abstract = {The present context, with an ongoing pandemic situation, war and climate change, seems to play a critical role in both the peoples' perception of their quality of life, and the acquisition and development of social and emotional competencies. In this study, our goal was to assess the relationship between social and emotional competencies and peoples' quality of life in a Portuguese sample. Participants were 1139 individuals living in Portugal, aged between 16 and 85 years old, who were mostly (73%) female. An online protocol for data acquisition was used, which included sociodemographic characterization, the Portuguese version of the scale of Social and Emotional Competencies (SEC-Q) and the World Health Organization Quality of Life (WHOQOL-BRIEF). Correlation analysis and a canonical correlation were performed, with results showing a high association between the dimensions of social and emotional competencies and peoples' quality of life. Two significant canonical roots were extracted, and the results show that the first is characterized by internal factors, linking psychological health and self-management and motivation, and the second root evidences the external factors, linking social relations and environment with social awareness and pro-social behavior.}, }
@article {pmid36974440, year = {2023}, author = {Yadav, A and Pacheco, SE}, title = {Prebirth effects of climate change on children's respiratory health.}, journal = {Current opinion in pediatrics}, volume = {35}, number = {3}, pages = {344-349}, doi = {10.1097/MOP.0000000000001241}, pmid = {36974440}, issn = {1531-698X}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Female ; Pregnancy ; *Prenatal Exposure Delayed Effects/epidemiology/etiology ; Climate Change ; Placenta ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Pregnancy Outcome ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To date, there is no evidence that humanity will implement appropriate mitigation measures to avoid the catastrophic impact of climate change on the planet and human health. Vulnerable populations such as pregnant women and children will be the most affected. This review highlights epidemiologic data on climate change-related prenatal environmental exposures affecting the fetus and children's respiratory health.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Research on outcomes of prenatal exposure to climate change-related environmental changes and pediatric pulmonary health is limited. In addition to adverse pregnancy outcomes known to affect lung development, changes in lung function, increased prevalence of wheezing, atopy, and respiratory infections have been associated with prenatal exposure to increased temperatures, air pollution, and maternal stress. The mechanisms behind these changes are ill-defined, although oxidative stress, impaired placental functioning, and epigenetic modifications have been observed. However, the long-term impact of these changes remains unknown.<br><br>SUMMARY: The detrimental impact of the climate crisis on pediatric respiratory health begins before birth, highlighting the inherent vulnerability of pregnant women and children. Research and advocacy, along with mitigation and adaptation measures, must be implemented to protect pregnant women and children, the most affected but the least responsible for the climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid36973258, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, X and Zhou, T and Zhang, W and Ren, L and Jiang, J and Hu, S and Zuo, M and Zhang, L and Man, W}, title = {Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1690}, pmid = {36973258}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {No. 41988101//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/ ; }, abstract = {During summer 2021, Western North America (WNA) experienced an unprecedented heatwave with record-breaking high temperatures associated with a strong anomalous high-pressure system, i.e., a heat dome. Here, we use a flow analog method and find that the heat dome over the WNA can explain half of the magnitude of the anomalous temperature. The intensities of hot extremes associated with similar heat dome-like atmospheric circulations increase faster than background global warming in both historical change and future projection. Such relationship between hot extremes and mean temperature can be partly explained by soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. The probability of 2021-like heat extremes is projected to increase due to the background warming, the enhanced soil moisture-atmosphere feedback and the weak but still significantly increased probability of the heat dome-like circulation. The population exposure to such heat extremes will also increase. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C (3 °C) would lead to an avoided impact of 53% (89%) of the increase in population exposure to 2021-like heat extremes under the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario.}, }
@article {pmid36973061, year = {2023}, author = {Haq, C and Iroku-Malize, T and Edgoose, J and Prunuske, J and Perkins, A and Altman, W and Elwood, S}, title = {Climate Change as a Threat to Health: Family Medicine Call to Action and Response.}, journal = {Annals of family medicine}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {195-197}, pmid = {36973061}, issn = {1544-1717}, mesh = {Humans ; *Family Practice ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36972905, year = {2023}, author = {Taylor, L}, title = {Dengue and chikungunya cases surge as climate change spreads arboviral diseases to new regions.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {380}, number = {}, pages = {717}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.p717}, pmid = {36972905}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Chikungunya Fever/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; *Dengue Virus ; *Zika Virus Infection ; *Zika Virus ; }, }
@article {pmid36972886, year = {2023}, author = {Dorić, V and Ivković, M and Baranov, V and Pozojević, I and Mihaljević, Z}, title = {Extreme freshwater discharge events exacerbated by climate change influence the structure and functional response of the chironomid community in a biodiversity hotspot.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {879}, number = {}, pages = {163110}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163110}, pmid = {36972886}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Chironomidae/physiology ; Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Lakes ; Water ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is expected to exacerbate extreme discharge events in freshwater ecosystems as a consequence of changes in precipitation volume and snow cover duration. Chironomid midges were used as a model organism in this study because of their small size and short life cycles, which enable fast colonization of new habitats and great resilience. This resilience is often expressed in easy recolonization after an extreme event. Chironomid samples together with physico-chemical water measurements were collected for 14 years, between 2007 and 2020, in a karst tufa barrier that is part of the Plitvice Lakes National Park in Croatia. More than 13,000 individuals belonging to >90 taxa were collected. Mean annual water temperature increased by 0.1 °C during this period. Multiple change-point analysis revealed three main periods by discharge patterns: the first one from January 2007 to June 2010, the second from July 2010 to March 2013, characterised by extreme low discharge, and the third from April 2013 to December 2020, characterised by an increase in extreme peak discharge values. Based on multilevel pattern analysis, indicator species of the first and the third discharge period were detected. The ecological preferences of these species indicate an environmental change related to the changes in discharge. Along with species composition, functional composition has changed with the abundance of passive filtrators, shredders and predators increasing over time. Species richness and abundance did not change over the period of observation, thus emphasizing the importance of species-level identification in detecting the earliest community response to change that would otherwise be overlooked.}, }
@article {pmid36972882, year = {2023}, author = {Ben Lamine, E and Schickele, A and Guidetti, P and Allemand, D and Hilmi, N and Raybaud, V}, title = {Redistribution of fisheries catch potential in Mediterranean and North European waters under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {879}, number = {}, pages = {163055}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163055}, pmid = {36972882}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Mediterranean Sea ; Global Warming ; Fishes ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of global warming where key commercial species, such as demersal and pelagic fishes, and cephalopods, could experience abrupt distribution shifts in the near future. However, the extent to which these range shifts may impact fisheries catch potential remains poorly understood at the scale of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Here, we evaluated the projected changes in Mediterranean fisheries catches potential, by target fishing gears, under different climate scenarios throughout the 21st century. We show that the future Mediterranean maximum catch potential may decrease considerably by the end of the century under high emission scenarios in South Eastern Mediterranean countries. These projected decreases range between -20 to -75 % for catch by pelagic trawl and seine, -50 to -75 % for fixed nets and traps and exceed -75 % for benthic trawl. In contrast, fixed nets and traps, and benthic trawl fisheries may experience an increase in their catch potential in the North and Celtic seas, while future catches by pelagic trawl and seine may decrease in the same areas. We show that a high emission scenario may considerably amplify the future redistribution of fisheries catch potential across European Seas, thus highlighting the need to limit global warming. Our projections at the manageable scale of EEZ and the quantification of climate-induced impacts on a large part of the Mediterranean and European fisheries is therefore a first, and considerable step toward the development of climate mitigation and adaptations strategies for the fisheries sector.}, }
@article {pmid36972633, year = {2023}, author = {Santos, A and Gómez-Espinoza, O and Núñez-Montero, K and Zárate, A and Andreote, FD and Pylro, VS and Bravo, L and Barrientos, L}, title = {Measuring the effect of climate change in Antarctic microbial communities: toward novel experimental approaches.}, journal = {Current opinion in biotechnology}, volume = {81}, number = {}, pages = {102918}, doi = {10.1016/j.copbio.2023.102918}, pmid = {36972633}, issn = {1879-0429}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Antarctic Regions ; *Microbiota ; }, abstract = {The Antarctic continent is undergoing a rapid warming, affecting microbial communities throughout its ecosystems. This continent is a natural laboratory for studying the effect of climate change, however, assessing the microbial communities' responses to environmental changes is challenging from a methodological point of view. We suggest novel experimental designs, including multivariable assessments that apply multiomics methods in combination with continuous environmental data recording and new warming simulation systems. Moreover, we propose that climate change studies in Antarctica should consider three main objectives, including descriptive studies, short-term temporary adaptation studies, and long-term adaptive evolution studies. This will help us to understand and manage the effects of climate change on the Earth.}, }
@article {pmid36972440, year = {2023}, author = {Ozgul, A and Fichtel, C and Paniw, M and Kappeler, PM}, title = {Destabilizing effect of climate change on the persistence of a short-lived primate.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {14}, pages = {e2214244120}, pmid = {36972440}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Population Dynamics ; Animals, Wild ; Temperature ; Mammals ; Seasons ; *Cheirogaleidae/physiology ; }, abstract = {Seasonal tropical environments are among those regions that are the most affected by shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes under climate change, with potentially severe consequences for wildlife population persistence. This persistence is ultimately determined by complex demographic responses to multiple climatic drivers, yet these complexities have been little explored in tropical mammals. We use long-term, individual-based demographic data (1994 to 2020) from a short-lived primate in western Madagascar, the gray mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus), to investigate the demographic drivers of population persistence under observed shifts in seasonal temperature and rainfall. While rainfall during the wet season has been declining over the years, dry season temperatures have been increasing, with these trends projected to continue. These environmental changes resulted in lower survival and higher recruitment rates over time for gray mouse lemurs. Although the contrasting changes have prevented the study population from collapsing, the resulting increase in life-history speed has destabilized an otherwise stable population. Population projections under more recent rainfall and temperature levels predict an increase in population fluctuations and a corresponding increase in the extinction risk over the next five decades. Our analyses show that a relatively short-lived mammal with high reproductive output, representing a life history that is expected to closely track changes in its environment, can nonetheless be threatened by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36970181, year = {2023}, author = {Liang, Z and Sun, L and Tian, Z and Fischer, G and Yan, H}, title = {Increase in grain production potential of China under climate change.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {2}, number = {3}, pages = {pgad057}, pmid = {36970181}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {The rapid growth of China's demand for grains is expected to continue in the coming decades, largely as a result of the increasing feed demand to produce protein-rich food. This leads to a great concern on future supply potentials of Chinese agriculture under climate change and the extent of China's dependence on world food markets. While the existing literature in both agronomy and climate economics indicates a dominance of the adverse impacts of climate change on rice, wheat, and maize yields, there is a lack of study to assess changes in multi-cropping opportunities induced by climate change. Multi-cropping benefits crop production by harvesting more than once per year from a given plot. To address this important gap, we established a procedure within the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) modeling framework to assess future spatial shifts of multi-cropping conditions. The assessment was based on an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathway scenarios in the phase five of coupled model inter-comparison project and accounted for the water scarcity constraints. The results show significant northward extensions of single-, double-, and triple-cropping zones in the future which would provide good opportunities for crop-rotation-based adaptation. The increasing multi-cropping opportunities would be able to boost the annual grain production potential by an average scale of 89(±49) Mt at the current irrigation efficiency and 143(±46) Mt at the modernized irrigation efficiency with improvement between the baseline (1981-2010) and the mid-21st century (2041-2070).}, }
@article {pmid36969305, year = {2023}, author = {Mathers, A and Fan, S and Austin, Z}, title = {Climate change at a crossroads: Embedding environmental sustainability into the core of pharmacy education.}, journal = {Canadian pharmacists journal : CPJ = Revue des pharmaciens du Canada : RPC}, volume = {156}, number = {2}, pages = {55-59}, pmid = {36969305}, issn = {1715-1635}, }
@article {pmid36969089, year = {2022}, author = {McDonnell, TC and Clark, CM and Reinds, GJ and Sullivan, TJ and Knees, B}, title = {Modeled Vegetation Community Trajectories: Effects from Climate Change, Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition, and Soil Acidification Recovery.}, journal = {Environmental advances}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1-13}, pmid = {36969089}, issn = {2666-7657}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Forest understory plant communities in the United States harbor most of the vegetation diversity of forests and are often sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N). As temperature increases from human-caused climate change and soils recover from long term atmospheric deposition of N and sulfur (S), it is unclear how these important ecosystem components will respond. We used the newly developed US-PROPS model - based on species response functions for over 1,500 species - to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric N deposition and climate change on species occurrence probability for a case study in the forested ecosystems of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM), an iconic park in the southeastern United States. We evaluated six future scenarios from various combinations of two potential recoveries of soil pH (no change, +0.5 pH units) and three climate futures (no change, +1.5, +3.0 deg C). Species critical loads (CLs) of N deposition and projected responses for each scenario were determined. Critical loads were estimated to be low (< 2 kg N/ha/yr) to protect all species under current and expected future conditions across broad regions of GRSM and these CLs were exceeded at large spatial extents among scenarios. Northern hardwood, yellow pine, and chestnut oak forests were among the most N-sensitive vegetation map classes found within GRSM. Potential future air temperature conditions generally led to decreases in the maximum occurrence probability for species. Therefore, CLs were considered "unattainable" in these situations because the specified level of protection used for CL determination (i.e., maximum occurrence probability under ambient conditions) was not attainable. Although some species showed decreases in maximum occurrence probability with simulated increases in soil pH, most species were favored by increased pH. The importance of our study is rooted in the methodology described here for establishing regional CLs and for evaluating future conditions, which is transferable to other national parks in the U.S. and in Europe where the original PROPS model was developed.}, }
@article {pmid36968560, year = {2023}, author = {Marcus, H and Hanna, L and Tait, P and Stone, S and Wannous, C and , }, title = {Climate change and the public health imperative for supporting migration as adaptation.}, journal = {Journal of migration and health}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {100174}, pmid = {36968560}, issn = {2666-6235}, abstract = {In an era of accelerating global climate change, human mobility has reached unprecedented levels. While it is acknowledged that many cases of human migration in the context of climate change are forced or involuntary, particularly where adaptation measures have failed to achieve sufficient resiliency of communities against impending slow- and sudden-onset disasters. There are also many cases where migration is, itself, a voluntary adaptive measure to secure otherwise unattainable physical safety and life-sustaining resources. It is in these cases that migration can be viewed as adaptation. Under the right policy conditions, it is possible for such adaptive migration to save countless lives. Moreover, it can achieve remarkable health and well-being gains for otherwise vulnerable communities residing on environmentally degrading lands and disproportionately suffering from the health impacts of climate change. While several activists have spoken loudly on the topic of climate migration, emphasizing the human rights imperative for supportive global policy action, the public health community has not been equally vocal nor unanimous in its stance. This paper, a product of the World Federation of Public Health Associations (WFPHA) Environmental Health Working Group, aims to rectify this gap, by analyzing adaptive climate migration through a public health lens. In doing so, it argues that creating an enabling environment for adaptive climate migration is not just a human rights imperative, but also a public health one. This argument is supported by evidence demonstrating how creating such an enabling environment can synergistically support the fulfillment of key public health services and functions, as outlined under the internationally endorsed Global Charter for the Public's Health of the WFPHA.}, }
@article {pmid36968365, year = {2023}, author = {Ling, Z and Shi, Z and Gu, S and Wang, T and Zhu, W and Feng, G}, title = {Corrigendum: Impact of climate change and rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) plantation expansion on reference evapotranspiration in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1157058}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2023.1157058}, pmid = {36968365}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2022.830519.].}, }
@article {pmid36968261, year = {2023}, author = {Le Mouël, C and Forslund, A and Marty, P and Manceron, S and Marajo-Petitzon, E and Caillaud, MA and Dumas, P and Schmitt, B}, title = {Can the Middle East-North Africa region mitigate the rise of its food import dependency under climate change?.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {52}, pmid = {36968261}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The dependence on imports of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for its food needs has increased steadily since the early 1960s, from 10% to about 40%. This import dependence could continue to rise in coming decades due to the projected MENA population growth and the expected negative impacts of climate change on the region's natural resources and agricultural performances. To what extent the food import dependency of the MENA region will continue to increase up to 2050 and how the region could mitigate its rising reliance on food imports is both a key question for the region itself and a crucial geopolitical issue for the world as a whole. In this paper, we use a biomass balance model to assess the level of the food import dependency of the MENA region in 2050 resulting from six scenarios. We show that under current trends and severe impacts of climate change the food import dependency of the MENA would continue to rise and reach 50% in 2050. Maghreb would be particularly affected becoming dependent on imports for almost 70% of its food needs. Adopting a Mediterranean diet, reaching faster productivity growth in agriculture or reducing waste and loss along the food chain would contribute to decelerate the rise of the MENA's food import dependency. However, only the combination of these three options could significantly offset the increased import dependency in the most affected sub-regions: Maghreb, the Middle and the Near East. In all scenarios, Turkey strengthens its position as a net exporter of agricultural products.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02045-y.}, }
@article {pmid36967950, year = {2023}, author = {Omodara, OD and Ige, OA and Oluwasola, O and Oyebanji, AT and Afape, OO}, title = {Factors influencing cassava farmers' choice of climate change adaption practices and its effect on cassava productivity in Nigeria.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {e14563}, pmid = {36967950}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study examined the socio-economic factors influencing choice of climate change adaptation practices and the effects of these practices on cassava productivity in Nigeria. Using a multi-stage sampling technique, structured questionnaire was used to survey 100 cassava farmers. The result was analyzed with a multivariate probit and generalized linear regression models. The result showed male dominance (78%) in cassava farming and the mean age of the cassava farmers was 45.46 ± 9.36 years. About 66% of the farmers belonged to cooperative associations and 67% had access to credit facilities. The multivariate model revealed that age of farmers, gender, education qualification, primary occupation, total income, membership of cooperative associations, farming objectives, farming experience, access to extension visit, access to credit, type of land ownership, farm size and climatic conditions significantly influenced choice of climate change adaptation practices among cassava farmers. The generalized linear model identified farming system, multiple crop types/improved crop varieties used, crop diversification, organic manuring, multiple planting dates, use of alternate fallowing, education and credit access to significantly affect cassava productivity. The study concluded that, eco-friendly methods for adapting to climate change increase cassava productivity. Thus, cassava farmers should be trained on the use of best climate change adaptation practices that can boost cassava productivity. In order to practice climate smart farming, it is important to stress the usage of organic manure and alternate fallowing.}, }
@article {pmid36967690, year = {2023}, author = {Ray Biswas, R and Rahman, A}, title = {Adaptation to climate change: A study on regional climate change adaptation policy and practice framework.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {336}, number = {}, pages = {117666}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117666}, pmid = {36967690}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Policy Making ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Government ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Although planning and policy instruments are important for climate change adaptation, the implementation of these measures is critical for success. This paper studies different climate change adaptation strategies by analysing the measures adopted by stakeholders in charge of government policy development and implementation to minimise the impacts of climate change in the northern tropical region of Queensland, Australia. Local government organisations are responsible for taking a leading role in climate change adaptation. State and commonwealth government agencies are primarily responsible for developing climate transition policies and guidelines, as well as providing limited financial aid to help support the local government. Interviews were conducted with local government practitioners identified from different local government authorities in the study region. Although all the government bodies made some progress in developing better climate change adaptation policies, the interview participants identified that a lot more needs to be done, especially in implementation, including devising and the application of relevant action plans, economic assessments, stakeholder participations and engagement. From a local government practitioners' viewpoint, both the water sector and local economy will face the highest immediate impacts if climate change adaptation actions are not adequately implemented at local government level in the study region. There are currently no notable legal bindings to address climate change risks in the region. In addition, financial liability assessments due to climate risks and cost-share mechanisms among different levels of stakeholders and government authorities to face and prepare for climate change impacts hardly exist. Although the interview respondents recognise their high importance. As there are uncertainties in the achievements of climate change adaptation plans, from a local government practitioners' standpoint, the local authorities should take appropriate actions to integrate adaptation and mitigation works to face and prepare for climate risks rather than focusing only on adaptation. The respondents informed that some work has been done to identify flood prone areas and a few policy documents exist that accommodate sea level rise in planning practice, but these are done in fragments with no holistic implementation, monitoring or evaluation plans put in place.}, }
@article {pmid36966825, year = {2023}, author = {Xiong, Y and Mo, S and Wu, H and Qu, X and Liu, Y and Zhou, L}, title = {Influence of human activities and climate change on wetland landscape pattern-A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {879}, number = {}, pages = {163112}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163112}, pmid = {36966825}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Wetlands ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Human Activities ; }, abstract = {Wetlands (rivers, lakes, swamps, etc.) are biodiversity hotspots, providing habitats for biota on the earth. In recent years, wetlands have been significantly affected by human activities and climate change, and wetland ecosystems have become one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world. There have been many studies on the impact of human activities and climate change on wetland landscapes, but there is still a lack of relevant reviews. This article summarizes the research on the impact of global human activities and climate change on wetland landscape patterns (vegetation distribution, etc.) from 1996 to 2021. Human activities such as dam construction, urbanization, and grazing will significantly affect the wetland landscape. Generally, dam construction and urbanization are generally believed to harm wetland vegetation, but appropriate human behaviors such as tillage benefit wetland plants' growth on reclaimed land. Prescribed fires in non-inundation periods are one of the ways to increase the vegetation coverage and diversity of wetlands. In addition, some ecological restoration projects have a positive impact on wetland vegetation (quantity, richness, etc.). Under climatic conditions, extreme floods and droughts are likely to change the wetland landscape pattern, and excessively high and low water levels will restrict plants. At the same time, the invasion of alien vegetation will inhibit the growth of native vegetation in the wetland. In an environment of global warming, rising temperatures may be a "double-edged sword" for alpine and higher latitude wetland plants. This review will help researchers better understand the impact of human activities and climate change on wetland landscape patterns and suggests avenues for future studies.}, }
@article {pmid36965267, year = {2023}, author = {Morais, H and Arenas, F and Cruzeiro, C and Galante-Oliveira, S and Cardoso, PG}, title = {Combined effects of climate change and environmentally relevant mixtures of endocrine disrupting compounds on the fitness and gonads' maturation dynamics of Nucella lapillus (Gastropoda).}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {190}, number = {}, pages = {114841}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.114841}, pmid = {36965267}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Male ; *Gastropoda ; *Endocrine Disruptors/toxicity ; Climate Change ; Gonads/chemistry ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Coastal areas are affected by multiple stressors like climate change and endocrine disruptors (EDCs). In the laboratory, we investigated the combined effects of increased temperature and EDCs (drospirenone and mercury) on the fitness and gonads' maturation dynamics of the marine gastropod Nucella lapillus for 21 days. Survival was negatively affected by all the stressors alone, while, in combination, a synergistic negative effect was observed. Both chemicals, as single factors, did not cause any effect on the maturation stage of ovaries and testis. However, in the presence of a higher temperature, it was clear a delay in the maturation stage of the ovaries, but not in the testis, suggesting a higher negative impact of the stressors in females than in males. In summary, drospirenone caused a low negative impact in aquatic species, like gastropods, but in combination with other EDCs and/or increased temperature can be a matter of concern.}, }
@article {pmid36964771, year = {2023}, author = {Ratter-Rieck, JM and Roden, M and Herder, C}, title = {Diabetes and climate change: current evidence and implications for people with diabetes, clinicians and policy stakeholders.}, journal = {Diabetologia}, volume = {66}, number = {6}, pages = {1003-1015}, pmid = {36964771}, issn = {1432-0428}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases ; Weather ; *Diabetes Mellitus ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change will be a major challenge for the world's health systems in the coming decades. Elevated temperatures and increasing frequencies of heat waves, wildfires, heavy precipitation and other weather extremes can affect health in many ways, especially if chronic diseases are already present. Impaired responses to heat stress, including compromised vasodilation and sweating, diabetes-related comorbidities, insulin resistance and chronic low-grade inflammation make people with diabetes particularly vulnerable to environmental risk factors, such as extreme weather events and air pollution. Additionally, multiple pathogens show an increased rate of transmission under conditions of climate change and people with diabetes have an altered immune system, which increases the risk for a worse course of infectious diseases. In this review, we summarise recent studies on the impact of climate-change-associated risk for people with diabetes and discuss which individuals may be specifically prone to these risk conditions due to their clinical features. Knowledge of such high-risk groups will help to develop and implement tailored prevention and management strategies to mitigate the detrimental effect of climate change on the health of people with diabetes.}, }
@article {pmid36964611, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, H and Huang, X and Guo, X and Cheng, P and Wang, H and Liu, L and Zang, C and Zhang, C and Wang, X and Zhou, G and Gong, M}, title = {Climate change and Aedes albopictus risks in China: current impact and future projection.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {26}, pmid = {36964611}, issn = {2049-9957}, support = {81702034//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 81871685//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; ZR2020KH001//Shandong Province Natural Science Foundation/ ; NHCKFKT2021-02//NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology/ ; 2019QL005//Academic promotion programme of Shandong First Medical University/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Aedes ; Climate Change ; China/epidemiology ; Temperature ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Future distribution of dengue risk is usually predicted based on predicted climate changes using general circulation models (GCMs). However, it is difficult to validate the GCM results and assess the uncertainty of the predictions. The observed changes in climate may be very different from the GCM results. We aim to utilize trends in observed climate dynamics to predict future risks of Aedes albopictus in China.<br><br>METHODS: We collected Ae. albopictus surveillance data and observed climate records from 80 meteorological stations from 1970 to 2021. We analyzed the trends in climate change in China and made predictions on future climate for the years 2050 and 2080 based on trend analyses. We analyzed the relationship between climatic variables and the prevalence of Ae. albopictus in different months/seasons. We built a classification tree model (based on the average of 999 runs of classification and regression tree analyses) to predict the monthly/seasonal Ae. albopictus distribution based on the average climate from 1970 to 2000 and assessed the contributions of different climatic variables to the Ae. albopictus distribution. Using these models, we projected the future distributions of Ae. albopictus for 2050 and 2080.<br><br>RESULTS: The study included Ae. albopictus surveillance from 259 sites in China found that winter to early spring (November-February) temperatures were strongly correlated with Ae. albopictus prevalence (prediction accuracy ranges 93.0-98.8%)-the higher the temperature the higher the prevalence, while precipitation in summer (June-September) was important predictor for Ae. albopictus prevalence. The machine learning tree models predicted the current prevalence of Ae. albopictus with high levels of agreement (accuracy&#x2009;>&#x2009;90% and Kappa agreement&#x2009;>&#x2009;80% for all 12&#xa0;months). Overall, winter temperature contributed the most to Ae. albopictus distribution, followed by summer precipitation. An increase in temperature was observed from 1970 to 2021 in most places in China, and annual change rates varied substantially from -0.22&#xa0;&#xba;C/year to 0.58&#xa0;&#xba;C/year among sites, with the largest increase in temperature occurring from February to April (an annual increase of 1.4-4.7 &#xba;C in monthly mean, 0.6-4.0 &#xba;C in monthly minimum, and 1.3-4.3 &#xba;C in monthly maximum temperature) and the smallest in November and December. Temperature increases were lower in the tropics/subtropics (1.5-2.3 &#xba;C from February-April) compared to the high-latitude areas (2.6-4.6 &#xba;C from February-April). The projected temperatures in 2050 and 2080 by this study were approximately 1-1.5&#xa0;&#xb0;C higher than those projected by GCMs. The estimated current Ae. albopictus risk distribution had a northern boundary of north-central China and the southern edge of northeastern China, with a risk period of June-September. The projected future Ae. albopictus risks in 2050 and 2080 cover nearly all of China, with an expanded risk period of April-October. The current at-risk population was estimated to be 960 million and the future at-risk population was projected to be 1.2 billion.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of climate change in China is likely to surpass GCM predictions. Future dengue risks will expand to cover nearly all of China if current climate trends continue.}, }
@article {pmid36963680, year = {2023}, author = {Martínez-Megías, C and Mentzel, S and Fuentes-Edfuf, Y and Moe, SJ and Rico, A}, title = {Influence of climate change and pesticide use practices on the ecological risks of pesticides in a protected Mediterranean wetland: A Bayesian network approach.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {878}, number = {}, pages = {163018}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163018}, pmid = {36963680}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Pesticides/analysis ; Wetlands ; Climate Change ; Bayes Theorem ; Agriculture ; Aquatic Organisms ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Pollution by agricultural pesticides is one of the most important pressures affecting Mediterranean coastal wetlands. Pesticide risks are expected to be influenced by climate change, which will result in an increase of temperatures and a decrease in annual precipitation. On the other hand, pesticide dosages are expected to change given the increase in pest resistance and the implementation of environmental policies like the European ´Farm-to-Fork` strategy, which aims for a 50 % reduction in pesticide usage by 2030. The influence of climate change and pesticide use practices on the ecological risks of pesticides needs to be evaluated making use of realistic environmental scenarios. This study investigates how different climate change and pesticide use practices affect the ecological risks of pesticides in the Albufera Natural Park (Valencia, Spain), a protected Mediterranean coastal wetland. We performed a probabilistic risk assessment for nine pesticides applied in rice production using three climatic scenarios (for the years 2008, 2050 and 2100), three pesticide dosage regimes (the recommended dose, and 50 % increase and 50 % decrease), and their combinations. The scenarios were used to simulate pesticide exposure concentrations in the water column of the rice paddies using the RICEWQ model. Pesticide effects were characterized using acute and chronic Species Sensitivity Distributions built with toxicity data for aquatic organisms. Risk quotients were calculated as probability distributions making use of Bayesian networks. Our results show that future climate projections will influence exposure concentrations for some of the studied pesticides, yielding higher dissipation and lower exposure in scenarios dominated by an increase of temperatures, and higher exposure peaks in scenarios where heavy precipitation events occur right after pesticide application. Our case study shows that pesticides such as azoxystrobin, difenoconazole and MCPA are posing unacceptable ecological risks for aquatic organisms, and that the implementation of the ´Farm-to-Fork` strategy is crucial to reduce them.}, }
@article {pmid36963636, year = {2023}, author = {Campos, EVR and Pereira, ADES and Aleksieienko, I and do Carmo, GC and Gohari, G and Santaella, C and Fraceto, LF and Oliveira, HC}, title = {Encapsulated plant growth regulators and associative microorganisms: Nature-based solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change on plants.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {331}, number = {}, pages = {111688}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2023.111688}, pmid = {36963636}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {*Plant Growth Regulators/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Ultraviolet Rays ; Plants/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Over the past decades, the atmospheric CO2 concentration and global average temperature have been increasing, and this trend is projected to soon become more severe. This scenario of climate change intensifies abiotic stress factors (such as drought, flooding, salinity, and ultraviolet radiation) that threaten forest and associated ecosystems as well as crop production. These factors can negatively affect plant growth and development with a consequent reduction in plant biomass accumulation and yield, in addition to increasing plant susceptibility to biotic stresses. Recently, biostimulants have become a hotspot as an effective and sustainable alternative to alleviate the negative effects of stresses on plants. However, the majority of biostimulants have poor stability under environmental conditions, which leads to premature degradation, shortening their biological activity. To solve these bottlenecks, micro- and nano-based formulations containing biostimulant molecules and/or microorganisms are gaining attention, as they demonstrate several advantages over their conventional formulations. In this review, we focus on the encapsulation of plant growth regulators and plant associative microorganisms as a strategy to boost their application for plant protection against abiotic stresses. We also address the potential limitations and challenges faced for the implementation of this technology, as well as possibilities regarding future research.}, }
@article {pmid36963356, year = {2023}, author = {Wardrope, A and Reuber, M}, title = {Seizure disorders and climate change: Everyone's problem.}, journal = {Seizure}, volume = {106}, number = {}, pages = {164-165}, doi = {10.1016/j.seizure.2023.03.013}, pmid = {36963356}, issn = {1532-2688}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Epilepsy/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36963098, year = {2023}, author = {Deivanayagam, TA and Osborne, RE}, title = {Breaking free from tunnel vision for climate change and health.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {e0001684}, pmid = {36963098}, issn = {2767-3375}, abstract = {Climate change is widely recognised as the greatest threat to public health this century, but 'climate change and health' often refers to a narrow and limited focus on emissions, and the impacts of the climate crisis, rather than a holistic assessment of economic structures and systems of oppression. This tunnel vision misses key aspects of the climate change and health intersection, such as the enforcers of planetary destruction such as the military, police, and trade, and can also lead down dangerous alleyways such as 'net' zero, overpopulation arguments and green extractivism. Tunnel vision also limits health to the absence of the disease at the individual level, rather than sickness or health within systems themselves. Conceptualising health as political, ecological, and collective is essential for tackling the root causes of health injustice. Alternative economic paradigms can offer possibilities for fairer ecological futures that prioritise health and wellbeing. Examples such as degrowth, doughnut economics and ecosocialism, and their relationship with health, are described. The importance of reparations in various forms, to repair previous and ongoing harm, are discussed. Breaking free from tunnel vision is not simply an intellectual endeavour, but a practice. Moving towards new paradigms requires movement building and cultivating radical imagination. The review highlights lessons which can be learnt from abolitionist movements and progressive political struggles across the world. This review provides ideas and examples of how to break free from tunnel vision for climate change and health by highlighting and analysing the work of multiple organisations who are working towards social and economic transformation. Key considerations for the health community are provided, including working in solidarity with others, prioritising community-led solutions, and using our voice, skills, and capacity to address the structural diagnosis-colonial capitalism.}, }
@article {pmid36962962, year = {2023}, author = {Agrawal, P and Post, LA and Glover, J and Hersey, D and Oberoi, P and Biroscak, B}, title = {The interrelationship between food security, climate change, and gender-based violence: A scoping review with system dynamics modeling.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {e0000300}, pmid = {36962962}, issn = {2767-3375}, abstract = {Gender-based violence (GBV) is a global public health and human rights problem that is exacerbated by social and environmental stressors for a multitude of interpersonal, cultural, and economic reasons. Through sudden disruptions in the microclimate of a region, climate shocks often have a negative impact on food security, which correlates with increases in GBV. Associations between the various combinations of GBV, climate change, and food insecurity have been documented in the growing international literature, but questions remain about these associations that require further clarification. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 provides insight through a real time demonstration into these interactions. This review of the global literature examines the interplay between GBV, climate change, and food insecurity-including recent literature regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. This review covers original research studies employing both quantitative and qualitative methodology, those that conducted secondary analyses of existing data sources and perspective pieces derived from observed evidence. An additional analytic layer of system dynamics modeling allowed for the integration of findings from the scoping review and discovery of additional insights into the interplay between disasters, food insecurity, and GBV. Findings from this review suggest that the development and adaptation of evidence-based, focused interventions and policies to reduce the effects of climate shocks and bolster food security may ultimately decrease GBV prevalence and impact.}, }
@article {pmid36962590, year = {2022}, author = {Kruger, SE and Lorah, PA and Okamoto, KW}, title = {Mapping climate change's impact on cholera infection risk in Bangladesh.}, journal = {PLOS global public health}, volume = {2}, number = {10}, pages = {e0000711}, pmid = {36962590}, issn = {2767-3375}, abstract = {Several studies have investigated how Vibrio cholerae infection risk changes with increased rainfall, temperature, and water pH levels for coastal Bangladesh, which experiences seasonal surges in cholera infections associated with heavy rainfall events. While coastal environmental conditions are understood to influence V. cholerae propagation within brackish waters and transmission to and within human populations, it remains unknown how changing climate regimes impact the risk for cholera infection throughout Bangladesh. To address this, we developed a random forest species distribution model to predict the occurrence probability of cholera incidence within Bangladesh for 2015 and 2050. We developed a random forest model trained on cholera incidence data and spatial environmental raster data to be predicted to environmental data for the year of training (2015) and 2050. From our model's predictions, we generated risk maps for cholera occurrence for 2015 and 2050. Our best-fitting model predicted cholera occurrence given elevation and distance to water. Generally, we find that regions within every district in Bangladesh experience an increase in infection risk from 2015 to 2050. We also find that although cells of high risk cluster along the coastline predominantly in 2015, by 2050 high-risk areas expand from the coast inland, conglomerating around surface waters across Bangladesh, reaching all but the northwestern-most district. Mapping the geographic distribution of cholera infections given projected environmental conditions provides a valuable tool for guiding proactive public health policy tailored to areas most at risk of future disease outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid36960688, year = {2023}, author = {Bellizzi, S and Popescu, C and Panu Napodano, CM and Fiamma, M and Cegolon, L}, title = {Global health, climate change and migration: The need for recognition of "climate refugees".}, journal = {Journal of global health}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {03011}, pmid = {36960688}, issn = {2047-2986}, mesh = {Humans ; *Refugees ; Climate Change ; Global Health ; Emigration and Immigration ; *Transients and Migrants ; }, }
@article {pmid36958943, year = {2023}, author = {Meng, F and Hong, S and Wang, J and Chen, A and Zhang, Y and Zhang, Y and Janssens, IA and Mao, J and Myneni, RB and Peñuelas, J and Piao, S}, title = {Climate change increases carbon allocation to leaves in early leaf green-up.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {26}, number = {5}, pages = {816-826}, doi = {10.1111/ele.14205}, pmid = {36958943}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {41988101//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2019QZKK0405//the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program/ ; 4000167205//Oak Ridge National Lab subcontract/ ; TESSFA//US Department of Energy/ ; }, mesh = {*Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Global greening, characterized by an increase in leaf area index (LAI), implies an increase in foliar carbon (C). Whether this increase in foliar C under climate change is due to higher photosynthesis or to higher allocation of C to leaves remains unknown. Here, we explored the trends in foliar C accumulation and allocation during leaf green-up from 2000 to 2017 using satellite-derived LAI and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) across the Northern Hemisphere. The accumulation of foliar C accelerated in the early green-up period due to both increased photosynthesis and higher foliar C allocation driven by climate change. In the late stage of green-up, however, we detected decreasing trends in foliar C accumulation and foliar C allocation. Such stage-dependent trends in the accumulation and allocation of foliar C are not represented in current terrestrial biosphere models. Our results highlight that a better representation of C allocation should be incorporated into models.}, }
@article {pmid36958563, year = {2023}, author = {Shehzad, K}, title = {Extreme flood in Pakistan: Is Pakistan paying the cost of climate change? A short communication.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {880}, number = {}, pages = {162973}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162973}, pmid = {36958563}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global warming is one of the foremost causes of changes in climate patterns around the world. Pakistan is among the top ten countries affected by global warming. Today, Pakistan is facing severe consequences of global warming in the form of an extreme flood. It affected 33 million people, destroyed 1.5 million homes, and caused $2.3 billion in crop damage. It has also damaged more than 2000 km of roads, cutting off connectivity to provinces and major cities. Thus, inflation in Pakistan has reached its highest level, i.e. 26 % - 27 %, and a severe food crisis is not far away. Recently, Pakistan noted a record temperature of 40 °C in several territories, notably 51 °C in Jacobabad. The study reported that high temperatures, melting glaciers, heavy monsoon rains, government inattention, and poor governance are the key reasons of this severe flood. Moreover, in 2080, the average temperature in Pakistan is predicted to increase by 4.38 degrees Celsius. The study suggested that Supply of cheap seeds and fertilizers to farmers, maintenance of water supply infrastructure, availability of food and medicines through domestic and foreign assistance, and reduction of electricity rates and taxes in flood-affected areas can be the solution to stop this crisis. Similarly, building dams, investing in technology and training, and educating the general public about environmental change should be included in the long-term goals to avoid future disasters.}, }
@article {pmid36951319, year = {2023}, author = {Kirton, CA}, title = {Climate Change Is a Threat to Public Health.}, journal = {The American journal of nursing}, volume = {123}, number = {4}, pages = {7}, doi = {10.1097/01.NAJ.0000925404.60123.b7}, pmid = {36951319}, issn = {1538-7488}, mesh = {Humans ; *Public Health ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Nurses must be part of the solution.}, }
@article {pmid36949910, year = {2023}, author = {Palmucci, DN and Ferraris, A}, title = {Climate change inaction: Cognitive bias influencing managers' decision making on environmental sustainability choices. The role of empathy and morality with the need of an integrated and comprehensive perspective.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1130059}, pmid = {36949910}, issn = {1664-1078}, }
@article {pmid36948067, year = {2023}, author = {Sousa, M and Rodrigues, S and Pretti, C and Meucci, V and Battaglia, F and Freitas, R and Antunes, SC}, title = {A forecast effects of climate change and anthropogenic compounds in Gambusia holbrooki: ecotoxicological effects of salinity and metformin.}, journal = {Aquatic toxicology (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {258}, number = {}, pages = {106494}, doi = {10.1016/j.aquatox.2023.106494}, pmid = {36948067}, issn = {1879-1514}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Salinity ; *Metformin ; Ecosystem ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity ; Antioxidants/metabolism ; Superoxide Dismutase/metabolism ; *Cyprinodontiformes/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Due to global warming and extreme weather events, estuarine and coastal ecosystems are facing sudden fluctuations in salinity. These ecosystems are also threatened by organic and inorganic compounds that increase water pollution. Metformin is an antidiabetic drug commonly used by patients with type-2 diabetes, and an increase in environmental concentration has been recorded. To better understand the impacts of these two stressors on aquatic organisms, this study assessed: 1) the acute (96 h) ecotoxicological effects (antioxidant and biotransformation capacity, oxidative damage, energetic reserves, and protein content, neurotoxicity) induced by a range of metformin concentrations in Gambusia holbrooki under different salinities (17, 24, 31 expressed as Practical Salinity Units - PSU); and 2) the same endpoints after chronic exposure (28 d) under a range of metformin concentrations at a salinity of 17. The results obtained from the acute exposure showed interactions between salinity and metformin in G. holbrooki superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity, body protein, and glycogen (GLY) contents. The results revealed that an increase in salinity can modulate the response of G. holbrooki to metformin. Chronically exposed organisms showed that metformin led to a significant decrease in SOD activity at most of the tested concentrations (0.5, 1.0, and 10 µg/L). In addition, glutathione S-transferases increased and glutathione peroxidase activity decreased significantly at concentrations of metformin of 5 and 10 at the µg/L, respectively. Therefore, overall, metformin can lead to potential oxidative stress in G. holbrooki the highest metformin concentrations tested and the GLY content in G. holbrooki increased after exposure to metformin concentrations of 0.5, 1.0 and 5.0 μg/L. Published studies have already shown that metformin alone can lead to oxidative damage in aquatic species, endangering the biodiversity of aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, additional ecotoxicological studies should be performed to characterize if other metformin concentrations combined with salinity, or other climate change-related factors, might impact non-target species. Standard toxicity bioassays may not be predictive of actual pollutants (e.g. metformin) toxicity under variable environmental conditions, and the investigation of a wider range of exposure conditions could improve the accuracy of chemical risk assessments.}, }
@article {pmid36947409, year = {2023}, author = {Osuolale, O}, title = {Precursor to Dengue: Projecting Effects of Climate Change on Mosquito Density in Southeast Asia.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {131}, number = {3}, pages = {34002}, pmid = {36947409}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Culicidae ; Climate Change ; Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; *Aedes ; }, }
@article {pmid36946867, year = {2023}, author = {Ouyang, X and Kristensen, E and Zimmer, M and Thornber, C and Yang, Z and Lee, SY}, title = {Response of macrophyte litter decomposition in global blue carbon ecosystems to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {13}, pages = {3806-3820}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16693}, pmid = {36946867}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {ANSO-CR-KP-2022-11//ANSO Collaborative Research/ ; 52239005//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 52271280//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; GML2022009//PI project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Carbon ; Reproducibility of Results ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs) are important nature-based solutions for climate change-mitigation. However, current debates question the reliability and contribution of BCEs under future climatic-scenarios. The answer to this question depends on ecosystem processes driving carbon-sequestration and -storage, such as primary production and decomposition, and their future rates. We performed a global meta-analysis on litter decomposition rate constants (k) in BCEs and predicted changes in carbon release from 309 studies. The relationships between k and climatic factors were examined by extracting remote-sensing data on air temperature, sea-surface temperature, and precipitation aligning to the decomposition time of each experiment. We constructed global numerical models of litter decomposition to forecast k and carbon release under different scenarios. The current k averages at 27 ± 3 × 10[-2] day[-1] for macroalgae were higher than for seagrasses (1.7 ± 0.2 × 10[-2] day[-1]), mangroves (1.6 ± 0.1 × 10[-2] day[-1]) and tidal marshes (5.9 ± 0.5 × 10[-3] day[-1]). Macrophyte k increased with both air temperature and precipitation in intertidal BCEs and with sea surface temperature for subtidal seagrasses. Above a temperature threshold for vascular plant litter at ~25°C and ~20°C for macroalgae, k drastically increased with increasing temperature. However, the direct effect of high temperatures on k are obscured by other factors in field experiments compared with laboratory experiments. We defined "fundamental" and "realized" temperature response to explain this effect. Based on relationships for realized temperature response, we predict that proportions of decomposed litter will increase by 0.9%-5% and 4.7%-28.8% by 2100 under low- (2°C) and high-warming conditions (4°C) compared to 2020, respectively. Net litter carbon sinks in BCEs will increase due to higher increase in litter C production than in decomposition by 2100 compared to 2020 under RCP 8.5. We highlight that BCEs will play an increasingly important role in future climate change-mitigation. Our findings can be leveraged for blue carbon accounting under future climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid36944422, year = {2023}, author = {Wise, J}, title = {Climate change: Window to act is closing rapidly, warn scientists.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {380}, number = {}, pages = {674}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.p674}, pmid = {36944422}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, }
@article {pmid36943899, year = {2023}, author = {McDermott-Levy, R and Pennea, E and Moore, C}, title = {Protecting Children's Health: Asthma and Climate Change.}, journal = {MCN. The American journal of maternal child nursing}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {188-194}, pmid = {36943899}, issn = {1539-0683}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Child Health ; Climate Change ; *Asthma ; }, abstract = {Children are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Their lungs are developing, making children with asthma especially susceptible to temperature extremes, variations in precipitation, poor air quality, and changes in pollen and flora. Structural and social determinants of health, such as racism and poverty, that disproportionately affect children of color are linked to higher rates of asthma and negative effects of climate change. These factors lead to increased absences from school and social activities, loss of work for caregivers, and increased health care costs, thus negatively affecting children, their families, and the greater community. Nurses must support caregivers and children to link climate change to asthma care, be involved in health education; climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and policies; and develop the evidence to address climate change and asthma strategies. We address the impacts of climate change on children with asthma and nursing adaptation responses.}, }
@article {pmid36943888, year = {2023}, author = {Bergquist, M and Thiel, M and Goldberg, MH and van der Linden, S}, title = {Field interventions for climate change mitigation behaviors: A second-order meta-analysis.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {13}, pages = {e2214851120}, pmid = {36943888}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Behavior ; }, abstract = {Behavioral change is essential to mitigate climate change. To advance current knowledge, we synthesize research on interventions aiming to promote climate change mitigation behaviors in field settings. In a preregistered second-order meta-analysis, we assess the overall effect of 10 meta-analyses, incorporating a total of 430 primary studies. In addition, we assess subgroup analyses for six types of interventions, five behaviors, and three publication bias adjustments. Results showed that climate change mitigation interventions were generally effective (dunadjusted = 0.31, 95% CI [0.30, 0.32]). A follow-up analysis using only unique primary studies, adjusted for publication bias, provides a more conservative overall estimate (d = 0.18, 95% CI [0.13, 0.24]). This translates into a mean treatment effect of 7 percentage points. Furthermore, in a subsample of adequately powered large-scale interventions (n > 9,000, k = 32), the effect was adjusted downward to approximately 2 percentage points. This discrepancy might be because large-scale interventions often target nonvoluntary participants by less direct techniques (e.g., "home energy reports") while small-scale interventions often target voluntary participants by more direct techniques (e.g., face-to-face interactions). Subgroup analyses showed that interventions based on social comparisons or financial incentives were the most effective, while education or feedback was the least effective. These results provide a comprehensive state-of-the-art summary of climate change mitigation interventions, guiding both future research and practice.}, }
@article {pmid36943744, year = {2023}, author = {Cornwall, CE and Comeau, S and Donner, SD and Perry, C and Dunne, J and van Hooidonk, R and Ryan, JS and Logan, CA}, title = {Coral adaptive capacity insufficient to halt global transition of coral reefs into net erosion under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {11}, pages = {3010-3018}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16647}, pmid = {36943744}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {VUW 1701//Royal Society Te Ap&#x101;rangi/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Coral Reefs ; *Anthozoa/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Calcium Carbonate ; }, abstract = {Projecting the effects of climate change on net reef calcium carbonate production is critical to understanding the future impacts on ecosystem function, but prior estimates have not included corals' natural adaptive capacity to such change. Here we estimate how the ability of symbionts to evolve tolerance to heat stress, or for coral hosts to shuffle to favourable symbionts, and their combination, may influence responses to the combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We show that symbiont evolution and shuffling, both individually and when combined, favours persistent positive net reef calcium carbonate production. However, our projections of future net calcium carbonate production (NCCP) under climate change vary both spatially and by RCP. For example, 19%-35% of modelled coral reefs are still projected to have net positive NCCP by 2050 if symbionts can evolve increased thermal tolerance, depending on the RCP. Without symbiont adaptive capacity, the number of coral reefs with positive NCCP drops to 9%-13% by 2050. Accounting for both symbiont evolution and shuffling, we project median positive NCPP of coral reefs will still occur under low greenhouse emissions (RCP2.6) in the Indian Ocean, and even under moderate emissions (RCP4.5) in the Pacific Ocean. However, adaptive capacity will be insufficient to halt the transition of coral reefs globally into erosion by 2050 under severe emissions scenarios (RCP8.5).}, }
@article {pmid36942365, year = {2023}, author = {Ortego, J and Espelta, JM and Armenteras, D and Díez, MC and Muñoz, A and Bonal, R}, title = {Demographic and spatially explicit landscape genomic analyses in a tropical oak reveal the impacts of late Quaternary climate change on Andean montane forests.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {12}, pages = {3182-3199}, doi = {10.1111/mec.16930}, pmid = {36942365}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {*Quercus/genetics ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Ecosystem ; Genomics ; Demography ; Phylogeny ; Genetic Variation ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The tropical Andes are one of the most important biodiversity hotspots on Earth, yet our understanding of how their biotas have responded to Quaternary climatic oscillations is extraordinarily limited and the alternative models proposed to explain their demographic dynamics have been seldom formally evaluated. Here, we test the hypothesis that the interplay between the spatial configuration of geographical barriers to dispersal and elevational displacements driven by Quaternary cooling-warming cycles has shaped the demographic trajectories of montane oak forests (Quercus humboldtii) from the Colombian Andes. Specifically, we integrate genomic data and environmental niche modelling at fine temporal resolution to test competing spatially explicit demographic and coalescent models, including scenarios considering (i) isotropic gene flow through the landscape, (ii) the hypothetical impact of contemporary barriers to dispersal (i.e., inter-Andean valleys), and (iii) distributional shifts of montane oak forests from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Although our data revealed a marked genetic fragmentation of montane oak forests, statistical support for isolation-with-migration models indicates that geographically separated populations from the different Andean Cordilleras regularly exchange gene flow. Accordingly, spatiotemporally explicit demographic analyses supported a model of flickering connectivity, with scenarios considering isotropic gene flow or currently unsuitable habitats as persistent barriers to dispersal providing a comparatively worse fit to empirical genomic data. Overall, these results emphasize the role of landscape heterogeneity on shaping spatial patterns of genomic variation in montane oak forests, rejecting the hypothesis of genetic continuity and supporting a significant impact of Quaternary climatic oscillations on their demographic trajectories.}, }
@article {pmid36942327, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, C and Chen, RJ and Kan, HD}, title = {[Progress and future perspective of epidemiological research of air pollution and climate change in the context of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals].}, journal = {Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi}, volume = {44}, number = {3}, pages = {353-359}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220824-00732}, pmid = {36942327}, issn = {0254-6450}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Goals ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Environmental Health ; Public Health ; China/epidemiology ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the great health challenge for human beings in the 21[st] century. Air pollution is also an important public health problem worldwide. China announced the climate commitment to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Achieving these goals would not only have far-reaching effects on air pollution control and climate change, but also improve the population health in China. Air pollution and climate change epidemiology are important aspects of environmental epidemiology. In this paper, we discuss the current status and future development of epidemiological research of air pollution and climate change in the context of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals to provide ideas and suggestions for environmental and health studies in the future.}, }
@article {pmid36942221, year = {2023}, author = {Lai, W and Shi, C and Wen, G and Lü, Z and Ye, L and Huang, Q and Zhang, G}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of the relict plant Shaniodendron subaequale.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {e14402}, pmid = {36942221}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Shaniodendron subeaqualis is a tertiary relict plant unique to China. This species has high greening, ecological, and scientific research value, and has been listed as a national I-level key protected plant. Clarifying the main climatic factors restricting the geographical distribution of S. subeaqualis and predicting the potential geographical distribution pattern of this species can provide a scientific basis for the protection of the germplasm resources of this rare species. Based on 104 S. subeaqualis natural distribution records and 9 climate factors, the MaxEnt software was used to predict the potential suitable areas of S. subeaqualis in different periods (LGM, MH, Current, SSP245-2050s, SSP245-2090s, SSP585-2050s, SSP585-2090s). The results showed that the contemporary AUC predicted by MaxEnt is 0.996, with high simulation accuracy; Precipitation in the driest season (Bio17), the average temperature in the coldest season (Bio11) are main factors affecting the distribution of S. subeaqualis. At present, the suitable area of S. subeaqualis is mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang province, with a total area of 11.575 × 10[4] km[2], of which the high suitable area is 1.424 × 10[4] km[2] and the medium suitable area is 3.826 × 10[4] km[2]. In the LGM, the area of S. subeaqualis was roughly similar to that of the contemporary period, but there was a southward migration phenomenon in some areas, such as the suitable area in the south of Zhejiang. In order to avoid the influence of ice age, S. subeaqualis moved to nearby refuge places, such as Dabie Mountain area of Anhui province, the west of Tianmu Mountain area of Zhejiang province and mountain area of Jiangsu province. In the MH, the suitable area for S. subeaqualis was reduced and moved northward to a small extent. In the future period, the suitable range of S. subeaqualis will not change greatly, but the overall degree of fragmentation will intensify. If effective measures are not taken, it is bound to bring severe challenges to the survival of S. subeaqualis. In order to protect S. subeaqualis germplasm resources more effectively, it is suggested to dynamically monitor the existing S. subeaqualis population and take various measures actively to reduce the negative effects of climate change on S. subeaqualis.}, }
@article {pmid36941776, year = {2023}, author = {Sisodiya, SM}, title = {Climate change and the brain.}, journal = {Brain : a journal of neurology}, volume = {146}, number = {5}, pages = {1731-1733}, pmid = {36941776}, issn = {1460-2156}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Brain ; }, abstract = {Heatwaves are becoming more common as a result of climate change. Sanjay Sisodiya discusses some of the potential impacts of climate change on the nervous system, particularly in individuals with neurological disorders, and emphasizes the need to take action now to help mitigate these effects.}, }
@article {pmid36941291, year = {2023}, author = {Lalmalsawma, P and Balasubramani, K and James, MM and Pautu, L and Prasad, KA and Sarma, DK and Balabaskaran Nina, P}, title = {Malaria hotspots and climate change trends in the hyper-endemic malaria settings of Mizoram along the India-Bangladesh borders.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {4538}, pmid = {36941291}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Humans ; Bangladesh/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Malaria ; India/epidemiology ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {India has made tremendous progress in reducing malaria mortality and morbidity in the last decade. Mizoram State in North-East India is one of the few malaria-endemic regions where malaria transmission has continued to remain high. As Mizoram shares international borders with Bangladesh and Myanmar, malaria control in this region is critical for malaria elimination efforts in all the three countries. For identifying hotspots for targeted intervention, malaria data from 385 public health sub-centers across Mizoram were analyzed in the Geographic Information System. Almost all the sub-centers reporting high Annual Parasite Index (> 10) are located in Mizoram's districts that border Bangladesh. Getis-Ord Gi* statistic shows most of the sub-centers located along the Bangladesh border in the Lawngtlai and Lunglei districts to be the malaria hotspots. The hotspots also extended into the Mamit and Siaha districts, especially along the borders of Lawngtlai and Lunglei. Analysis of terrain, climatic, and land use/land cover datasets obtained from the Global Modelling and Assimilation Office and satellite images show Mizoram's western part (Lawngtlai, Lunglei, and Mamit districts) to experience similar topographic and climatic conditions as the bordering Rangamati district in the Chittagong division of Bangladesh. Climatic trends in this region from 1981 to 2021, estimated by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates, show an increasing trend in minimum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and the associated shift of climatic pattern (temperate to tropical monsoon) could facilitate malaria transmission. The quasi-Poisson regression model estimates a strong association (p < 0.001) between total malaria cases, temperature range, and elevation. The Kruskal-Wallis H test shows a statistically significant association between malaria cases and forest classes (p < 0.001). A regional coordination and strategic plan are required to eliminate malaria from this hyper-endemic malaria region of North-East India.}, }
@article {pmid36939516, year = {2023}, author = {Haugen, T and Prichardo, P and Hellums, R and Lindemann, L}, title = {Climate Change and Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery.}, journal = {Otolaryngology--head and neck surgery : official journal of American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery}, volume = {168}, number = {5}, pages = {1261-1263}, doi = {10.1002/ohn.189}, pmid = {36939516}, issn = {1097-6817}, mesh = {Humans ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Pandemics ; Climate Change ; *Otolaryngology ; }, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated that global events can have a profound impact on our health systems. While the pandemic is unprecedented, it does underscore the need to prepare for future global health concerns. Climate change is a looming threat with significant consequences for otolaryngologists and our patients. In this commentary, we discuss the need to assess our preparedness for climate change as well as the importance of reflecting on our responsibility to minimize our footprint.}, }
@article {pmid36938579, year = {2023}, author = {Sun, Y and Bao, Q and Taghizadeh-Hesary, F}, title = {Green finance, renewable energy development, and climate change: evidence from regions of China.}, journal = {Humanities &amp; social sciences communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {107}, pmid = {36938579}, issn = {2662-9992}, abstract = {In this study, using data from 2010 to 2021, and by utilizing the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) theory, and system generalized method of moments, the effect of green financing and deployment of renewable energy on carbon dioxide emissions in China and its provinces were analyzed. The results show that green financing reduces environmental pollution at the country level. Moreover, with a 1% increase in renewable energy consumption, carbon dioxide emission can be expected to decrease by 0.103%. It also demonstrates that green financing has a statistically significant coefficient only in provinces located in the eastern and western regions. Chinese policymakers should incentive policies for provinces in the eastern region of China in order to have a cleaner environment. The central region should be under supportive and pressure policies to move faster along the path to sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid36936644, year = {2023}, author = {Beckmann-Wübbelt, A and Türk, L and Almeida, I and Fricke, A and Sotirov, M and Saha, S}, title = {Climate change adaptation measures conflicted with the recreational demands on city forests during COVID-19 pandemic.}, journal = {npj urban sustainability}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {17}, pmid = {36936644}, issn = {2661-8001}, abstract = {Recurrent droughts in southwest Germany threaten the city and community-owned forests (CCF). At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the demand for recreation in CCF of southwest Germany. We interviewed stakeholders from different interest groups to critically analyze their opinion on how the high recreation demand on CCF due to the pandemic can be ensured along with implementing climate change adaptation measures in CCF in Karlsruhe, Germany. We found that stakeholders particularly highlighted the importance of the recreational function of the CCF during the pandemic. However, the behavior of visitors was criticized by the stakeholders. We showed that demand for the recreational use of CCF conflicted with climate change adaptation measures such as sanitary and forest restoration actions, creating a dilemma among stakeholders. Therefore, enhancing citizens' knowledge of forests' recreation functions and the need for climate change adaptation through communication and education should be prioritized.}, }
@article {pmid36936481, year = {2023}, author = {Conrad, K}, title = {The Era of Climate Change Medicine-Challenges to Health Care Systems.}, journal = {Ochsner journal}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {7-8}, pmid = {36936481}, issn = {1524-5012}, }
@article {pmid36934927, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, W and Jiang, J and Lin, HY and Chen, TY and Zhang, S and Wang, T}, title = {Assessment of the impact of climate change on endangered conifer tree species by considering climate and soil dual suitability and interspecific competition.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {877}, number = {}, pages = {162722}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162722}, pmid = {36934927}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Trees ; Endangered Species ; *Tracheophyta ; Soil ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Ecology ; }, abstract = {Climate change results in the habitat loss of many conifer tree species and jeopardizes species biodiversity and forest ecological functions. Delineating suitable habitats for tree species via climate niche model (CNM) is widely used to predict the impact of climate change and develop conservation and management strategies. However, the robustness of CNM is broadly debated as it usually does not consider soil and competition factors. Here we developed a new approach to combine soil variables with CNM and evaluate interspecific competition potential in the niche overlapping areas. We used an endangered conifer species - Chamaecyparis formosensis (red cypress) - as a case study to predict the impact of climate change. We developed a novel approach to integrate the climate niche model and soil niche model predictions and considered interspecific competition to predict the impacts of climate change on tree species. Our results show that the suitable habitat for red cypress would decrease significantly in the future with an additional threat from the competition of an oak tree species. Our approach and results may represent significant implications in making conservation strategies and evaluating the impacts of climate change, and providing the direction of the refinement of the ecological niche model.}, }
@article {pmid36934916, year = {2023}, author = {Vo, TPT and Ngo, HH and Guo, W and Turney, C and Liu, Y and Nguyen, DD and Bui, XT and Varjani, S}, title = {Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change summit negotiations from the climate governance perspective.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {878}, number = {}, pages = {162936}, pmid = {36934916}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Negotiating ; Pandemics ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions to the world since 2020, with over 647 million confirmed cases and 6.7 million reported deaths as of January 2023. Despite its far-reaching impact, the effects of COVID-19 on the progress of global climate change negotiations have yet to be thoroughly evaluated. This discussion paper conducts an examination of COVID-19's impact on climate change actions at global, national, and local levels through a comprehensive review of existing literature. This analysis reveals that the pandemic has resulted in delays in implementing climate policies and altered priorities from climate action to the pandemic response. Despite these setbacks, the pandemic has also presented opportunities for accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy. The interplay between these outcomes and the different levels of governance will play a crucial role in determining the success or failure of future climate change negotiations.}, }
@article {pmid36934871, year = {2023}, author = {Garcia-Bustos, V and Cabañero-Navalon, MD and Ruiz-Gaitán, A and Salavert, M and Tormo-Mas, M&#xc1; and Pemán, J}, title = {Climate change, animals, and Candida auris: insights into the ecological niche of a new species from a One Health approach.}, journal = {Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {858-862}, doi = {10.1016/j.cmi.2023.03.016}, pmid = {36934871}, issn = {1469-0691}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Candidiasis/epidemiology/microbiology ; Candida auris ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *One Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: One of the most puzzling traits of Candida auris is the recent simultaneous and independent emergence of five genetically distinct clades on three continents. Global warming has been proposed as a contributing factor for this emergence owing to high thermotolerance of C. auris compared with phylogenetically close Candida species. This hypothesis postulates that climate change induced an environmental ancestor to become pathogenic through thermal adaptation and was then globally disseminated by an intermediate host.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The aim of this review is to compile the current knowledge on the emergence and ecological environmental niches of C.&#xa0;auris and highlight the potential role of animals in transmission.<br><br>SOURCES: A literature search was conducted using PubMed, MEDLINE, Google Scholar, and Web of Science from May 2022 to January 2023.<br><br>CONTENT: We discuss the up-to-date data on the ecological niches of this fungus and its mechanisms of emergence, transmission cycle in nature, and worldwide dissemination. We highlight the possibility of an originally intermediate host possibly related to marine or freshwater ecosystems on the basis of recent molecular and microbiological evidence from a One Health perspective. The consequences of harmful human impact on the environment in the rise of new fungal pathogenic species, such as C.&#xa0;auris, are also analysed and compared with other animal precedents.<br><br>IMPLICATIONS: The present knowledge can prompt the generation of new evidence on the ecological reservoirs of C.&#xa0;auris and its original mechanisms of environmental or interspecies transmission. Further research on the highlighted gaps will help understand the importance of the relationships between human, animal, and ecosystem health as factors involved in the rise and spread of emerging fungal pathogenic species.}, }
@article {pmid36933729, year = {2023}, author = {Gumuła-Kawęcka, A and Jaworska-Szulc, B and Szymkiewicz, A and Gorczewska-Langner, W and Angulo-Jaramillo, R and Šimůnek, J}, title = {Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in shallow young glacial aquifers in northern Poland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {877}, number = {}, pages = {162904}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162904}, pmid = {36933729}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {We investigated the influence of climate change in the period 1951-2020 on shallow aquifers in the Brda and Wda outwash plains (Pomeranian Region, Northern Poland). There was a significant temperature rise (0.3 °C/10 years), which accelerated after 1980 (0.66 °C/10 years). Precipitation became increasingly irregular - extremely rainy years occurred right after or before extremely dry years, and intensive rainfall events became more frequent after 2000. The groundwater level decreased over the last 20 years, even though the average annual precipitation was higher than in the previous 50 years. We carried out numerical simulations of water flow in representative soil profiles for the years 1970-2020 using the HYDRUS-1D model, developed and calibrated during our earlier work at an experimental site in the Brda outwash plain (Gumuła-Kawęcka et al., 2022). We used a relationship between the water head and flux at the bottom of the soil profiles (the third-type boundary condition) to reproduce groundwater table fluctuations caused by recharge variability in time. The calculated daily recharge showed a decreasing linear trend for the last 20 years (0.05-0.06 mm d[-1]/10 years), and dropping trends in water table level and soil water content in the entire profile of vadose zone. Field tracer experiments were performed to estimate impact of extremely rain events on water flux in vadose zone. The results suggest that tracer travel times are strongly determined by water content in the unsaturated zone which is determined by precipitation amount in span of weeks, rather than extremely high precipitation events.}, }
@article {pmid36932861, year = {2023}, author = {Baustian, MM and Liu, B and Moss, LC and Dausman, A and Pahl, JW}, title = {Climate change mitigation potential of Louisiana's coastal area: Current estimates and future projections.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {e2847}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2847}, pmid = {36932861}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Wetlands ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Methane/analysis ; }, abstract = {Coastal habitats can play an important role in climate change mitigation. As Louisiana implements its climate action plan and the restoration and risk-reduction projects outlined in its 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan, it is critical to consider potential greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in coastal habitats. This study estimated the potential climate mitigation role of existing, converted, and restored coastal habitats for years 2005, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2050, which align with the Governor of Louisiana's GHG reduction targets. An analytical framework was developed that considered (1) available scientific data on net ecosystem carbon balance fluxes per habitat and (2) habitat areas projected from modeling efforts used for the 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan to estimate the net GHG flux of coastal area. The coastal area was estimated as net GHG sinks of -38.4 ± 10.6 and -43.2 ± 12.0 Tg CO2 equivalents (CO2 e) in 2005 and 2020, respectively. The coastal area was projected to remain a net GHG sink in 2025 and 2030, both with and without the implementation of Coastal Master Plan projects (means ranged from -25.3 to -34.2 Tg CO2 e). By 2050, with model-projected wetland loss and conversion of coastal habitats to open water due to coastal erosion and relative sea level rise, Louisiana's coastal area was projected to become a net source of GHG emissions both with and without the Coastal Master Plan projects. However, in the year 2050, the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan project implementation was projected to avoid the release of +8.8 ± 1.3 Tg CO2 e compared with an alternative with no action. Reduction in current and future stressors to coastal habitats, including impacts from sea level rise, as well as the implementation of restoration projects could help to ensure coastal areas remain a natural climate solution.}, }
@article {pmid36932168, year = {2023}, author = {Colelli, FP and Wing, IS and Cian, E}, title = {Air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand highlight climate change mitigation-adaptation tradeoffs.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {4413}, pmid = {36932168}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {756194/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; 681228//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; DE-SC0016162//U.S. Department of Energy/ ; }, abstract = {We elucidate mid-century climate change impacts on electricity demand accounting for endogenous adoption of residential air-conditioning (AC) in affluent, cooler countries in Europe, and in poorer, hotter states in India. By 2050, in a high-warming scenario (SSP585) AC prevalence grows twofold in Europe and fourfold in India, reaching around 40% in both regions. We document a mitigation-adaptation tradeoff: AC expansion reduces daily heat exposures by 150 million and 3.8 billion person degree-days (PDDs), but increases annual electricity demand by 34 TWh and 168 TWh in Europe and India, respectively (corresponding to 2% and 15% of today's consumption). The increase in adoption and use of AC would result in an additional 130 MMTCO2, of which 120 MMTCO2 in India alone, if the additional electricity generated were produced with today's power mix. The tradeoff varies geographically and across income groups: a one PDD reduction in heat exposure in Europe versus India necessitates five times more electricity (0.53 kWh vs 0.1 kWh) and two times more emissions (0.16 kgCO[Formula: see text] vs 0.09 kgCO[Formula: see text]), on average. The decomposition of demand drivers offers important insights on how such tradeoff can be moderated through policies promoting technology-based and behavioral-based adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid36932162, year = {2023}, author = {Camacho, AM and Perotto-Baldivieso, HL and Tanner, EP and Montemayor, AL and Gless, WA and Exum, J and Yamashita, TJ and Foley, AM and DeYoung, RW and Nelson, SD}, title = {The broad scale impact of climate change on planning aerial wildlife surveys with drone-based thermal cameras.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {4455}, pmid = {36932162}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Animals, Wild ; *Deer ; Unmanned Aerial Devices ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Helicopters used for aerial wildlife surveys are expensive, dangerous and time consuming. Drones and thermal infrared cameras can detect wildlife, though the ability to detect individuals is dependent on weather conditions. While we have a good understanding of local weather conditions, we do not have a broad-scale assessment of ambient temperature to plan drone wildlife surveys. Climate change will affect our ability to conduct thermal surveys in the future. Our objective was to determine optimal annual and daily time periods to conduct surveys. We present a case study in Texas, (United States of America [USA]) where we acquired and compared average monthly temperature data from 1990 to 2019, hourly temperature data from 2010 to 2019 and projected monthly temperature data from 2021 to 2040 to identify areas where surveys would detect a commonly studied ungulate (white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus]) during sunny or cloudy conditions. Mean temperatures increased when comparing the 1990-2019 to 2010-2019 periods. Mean temperatures above the maximum ambient temperature in which white-tailed deer can be detected increased in 72, 10, 10, and 24 of the 254 Texas counties in June, July, August, and September, respectively. Future climate projections indicate that temperatures above the maximum ambient temperature in which white-tailed deer can be detected will increase in 32, 12, 15, and 47 counties in June, July, August, and September, respectively when comparing 2010-2019 with 2021-2040. This analysis can assist planning, and scheduling thermal drone wildlife surveys across the year and combined with daily data can be efficient to plan drone flights.}, }
@article {pmid36931737, year = {2023}, author = {Rodway, GW}, title = {Climate Change in and Around the High Ranges of Asia: Consequences for Human Health.}, journal = {Wilderness &amp; environmental medicine}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.wem.2023.02.003}, pmid = {36931737}, issn = {1545-1534}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Asia ; }, }
@article {pmid36930310, year = {2023}, author = {Li, Q}, title = {Green financing role on climate change-supportive architectural design development: directions for green architectural designs.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {19}, pages = {56984-56997}, pmid = {36930310}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Economic Development ; Carbon Dioxide ; }, abstract = {The purpose of the study is to study the role of green financing in developing climate change supportive architectural design development to shift the modern world towards the idea of green architectural designs. Thus, the research estimated the nexus among green financing, green architectural development, and climate change mitigation by using the unit root analysis technique, co-integration analysis technique, bound-test estimates, auto-regressive distributive lag-error correction modeling (ARDL-ECM) technique to predict different short-run and long-run relationships, and robustness analysis technique. Following the previous study, modeling green financing index and green architectural design index are used to measure the variables. The findings of the study confirmed that green financing has significant role in supporting the climate change induction in architectural design development both in short run and long run. Moreover, green financing supports in promoting green architectural designs. By this, the viability of green financing in climate change that induces architecturally designed building is confirmed. Correspondingly, empirical results have shown that green financing contributes in climate change with 0.66, green infrastructure development with 0.72, and economic development with 0.31. While in long-run, green financing role in changing inside of climate of the architectural design is 0.74, supports in green infrastructure development with 0.67, and holds the 0.29 percent potential of contributing in economic development. These findings are robust with the 0.74 value of F-statistics, 1.89 value of t-statistics, and 110 value of Narayan standard estimate. In last, the study suggested way forward for stakeholders to promote green architectural designs to achieve SDG 8, SDG 11, and SDG 13.}, }
@article {pmid36924950, year = {2023}, author = {Bethke, K and Kropidłowska, K and Stepnowski, P and Caban, M}, title = {Review of warming and acidification effects to the ecotoxicity of pharmaceuticals on aquatic organisms in the era of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {877}, number = {}, pages = {162829}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162829}, pmid = {36924950}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Aquatic Organisms ; *Environmental Pollutants ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Pharmaceutical Preparations ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {An increase in the temperature and the acidification of the aquatic environment are among the many consequences of global warming. Climate change can also negatively affect aquatic organisms indirectly, by altering the toxicity of pollutants. Models of climate change impacts on the distribution, fate and ecotoxicity of persistent pollutants are now available. For pharmaceuticals, however, as new environmental pollutants, there are no predictions on this issue. Therefore, this paper organizes the existing knowledge on the effects of temperature, pH and both stressors combined on the toxicity of pharmaceuticals on aquatic organisms. Besides lethal toxicity, the molecular, physiological and behavioral biomarkers of sub-lethal stress were also assessed. Both acute and chronic toxicity, as well as bioaccumulation, were found to be affected. The direction and magnitude of these changes depend on the specific pharmaceutical, as well as the organism and conditions involved. Unfortunately, the response of organisms was enhanced by combined stressors. We compare the findings with those known for persistent organic pollutants, for which the pH has a relatively low effect on toxicity. The acid-base constant of molecules, as assumed, have an effect on the toxicity change with pH modulation. Studies with bivalves have been were overrepresented, while too little attention was paid to producers. Furthermore, the limited number of pharmaceuticals have been tested, and metabolites skipped altogether. Generally, the effects of warming and acidification were rather indicated than explored, and much more attention needs to be given to the ecotoxicology of pharmaceuticals in climate change conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36923961, year = {2023}, author = {García-Portela, L and Maraun, D}, title = {Overstating the effects of anthropogenic climate change? A critical assessment of attribution methods in climate science.}, journal = {European journal for philosophy of science}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {17}, pmid = {36923961}, issn = {1879-4912}, abstract = {Climate scientists have proposed two methods to link extreme weather events and anthropogenic climate forcing: the probabilistic and the storyline approach. Proponents of the first approach have raised the criticism that the storyline approach could be overstating the role of anthropogenic climate change. This issue has important implications because, in certain contexts, decision-makers might seek to avoid information that overstates the effects of anthropogenic climate change. In this paper, we explore two research questions. First, whether and to what extent the storyline approach overstates the effects of anthropogenic climate change. Second, whether the objections offered against the storyline approach constitute good reasons to prefer the probabilistic approach. Concerning the first question, we show that the storyline approach does not necessarily overstate the effects of climate change, and particularly not for the reasons offered by proponents of the probabilistic approach. Concerning the second question, we show, independently, that the probabilistic approach faces the same or very similar objections to those raised against the storyline approach due to the lack of robustness of climate models and the way events are commonly defined when applying the probabilistic approach. These results suggest that these objections might not constitute good reasons to prefer the probabilistic approach over the storyline approach.}, }
@article {pmid36923025, year = {2023}, author = {Huang, P and Zheng, XT and Li, X and Hu, K and Zhou, ZQ}, title = {More complex interactions: Continuing progress in understanding the dynamics of regional climate change under a warming climate.}, journal = {Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {100398}, pmid = {36923025}, issn = {2666-6758}, }
@article {pmid36922095, year = {2023}, author = {Schneider, A and Atar, D and Agewall, S}, title = {RESPONSE: Climate Change and Health: Challenges, Opportunities, and the Need for Action.}, journal = {Journal of the American College of Cardiology}, volume = {81}, number = {11}, pages = {1130-1132}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2022.10.041}, pmid = {36922095}, issn = {1558-3597}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid36922094, year = {2023}, author = {Khraishah, H and Ganatra, S and Al-Kindi, SG}, title = {Climate Change, Environmental Pollution, and the Role of Cardiologists of the Future.}, journal = {Journal of the American College of Cardiology}, volume = {81}, number = {11}, pages = {1127-1132}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2022.10.040}, pmid = {36922094}, issn = {1558-3597}, support = {P50 MD017351/MD/NIMHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Cardiologists ; Environmental Pollution ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid36921561, year = {2023}, author = {Jurgilevich, A and Käyhkö, J and Räsänen, A and Pörsti, S and Lagström, H and Käyhkö, J and Juhola, S}, title = {Factors influencing vulnerability to climate change-related health impacts in cities - A conceptual framework.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {173}, number = {}, pages = {107837}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2023.107837}, pmid = {36921561}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Humans ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {Climate change will have adverse impacts on human health, which are amplified in cities. For these impacts, there are direct, indirect, and deferred pathways. The first category is well-studied, while indirect and deferred impacts are not well-understood. Moreover, the factors moderating the impacts have received little attention, although understanding these factors is critical for adaptation. We developed a conceptual framework that shows the pathways of climate impacts on human health, focusing specifically on the factors of urban environment moderating the emergence and severity of these health impacts. Based on the framework and literature review, we illustrate the mechanisms of direct, indirect, and deferred health impact occurrence and the factors that exacerbate or alleviate the severity of these impacts, thus presenting valuable insights for anticipatory adaptation. We conclude that an integrated systemic approach to preventing health risks from climate change can provide co-benefits for adaptation and address multiple health risks. Such an approach should be mainstreamed horizontally to all sectors of urban planning and should account for the spatiotemporal aspects of policy and planning decisions and city complexity.}, }
@article {pmid36919472, year = {2023}, author = {Sales, LP and Pires, MM}, title = {Identifying climate change refugia for South American biodiversity.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {37}, number = {4}, pages = {e14087}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.14087}, pmid = {36919472}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Biodiversity ; Forests ; Mammals ; South America ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Refugia-based conservation offers long-term effectiveness and minimize uncertainty on strategies for climate change adaptation. We used distribution modelling to identify climate change refugia for 617 terrestrial mammals and to quantify the role of protected areas (PAs) in providing refugia across South America. To do so, we compared species potential distribution across different scenarios of climate change, highlighting those regions likely to retain suitable climatic conditions by year 2090, and explored the proportion of refugia inside PAs. Moist tropical forests in high-elevation areas with complex topography concentrated the highest local diversity of species refugia, although regionally important refugia centers occurred elsewhere. Andean-Amazon forests contained climate change refugia for more than half of the continental species' pool and for up to 87 species locally (17 × 17 km[2] grid cell). The highlands of the southern Atlantic Forest also included megadiverse refugia for up to 76 species per cell. Almost half of the species that may find refugia in the Atlantic Forest will do so in a single region-the Serra do Mar and Serra do Espinhaço. Most of the refugia we identified, however, were not in PAs, which may contain <6% of the total area of climate change refugia, leaving 129-237 species with no refugia inside the territorial limits of PAs of any kind. Our results reveal a dismal scenario for the level of refugia protection in some of the most biodiverse regions of the world. Nonetheless, because refugia tend to be in high-elevation, topographically complex, and remote areas, with lower anthropogenic pressure, formally protecting them may require a comparatively modest investment.}, }
@article {pmid36918954, year = {2023}, author = {Ferguson, T and Curtis, R and Fraysse, F and Olds, T and Dumuid, D and Brown, W and Esterman, A and Maher, C}, title = {Weather associations with physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep patterns of Australian adults: a longitudinal study with implications for climate change.}, journal = {The international journal of behavioral nutrition and physical activity}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {30}, pmid = {36918954}, issn = {1479-5868}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; Adult ; Male ; Longitudinal Studies ; *Sedentary Behavior ; Prospective Studies ; *Climate Change ; Australia ; Exercise ; Weather ; Sleep ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Weather is a potentially important influence on how time is allocated to sleep, sedentary behaviour and physical activity across the 24-h day. Extremes of weather (very hot, cold, windy or wet) can create undesirable, unsafe outdoor environments for exercise or active transport, impact the comfort of sleeping environments, and increase time indoors. This 13-month prospective cohort study explored associations between weather and 24-h movement behaviour patterns.<br><br>METHODS: Three hundred sixty-eight&#xa0;adults (mean age 40.2&#xa0;years, SD 5.9, 56.8% female) from Adelaide, Australia, wore Fitbit Charge 3 activity trackers 24&#xa0;h a day for 13&#xa0;months with minute-by-minute data on sleep, sedentary behaviour, light physical activity (LPA), and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) collected remotely. Daily weather data included temperature, rainfall, wind, cloud and sunshine. Multi-level mixed-effects linear regression analyses (one model per outcome) were used.<br><br>RESULTS: Ninety thousand eight hundred one&#xa0;days of data were analysed. Sleep was negatively associated with minimum temperature (-12&#xa0;min/day change across minimum temperature range of 31.2&#xa0;&#xb0;C, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.001). Sedentary behaviour was positively associated with minimum temperature (+&#x2009;12&#xa0;min/day, range&#x2009;=&#x2009;31.2&#xa0;oC, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.006) and wind speed (+&#x2009;10&#xa0;min/day, range&#x2009;=&#x2009;36.7&#xa0;km/h,&#xa0;p<&#x2009;0.001), and negatively associated with sunshine (-17&#xa0;min/day, range&#x2009;=&#x2009;13.9&#xa0;h, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001). LPA was positively associated with minimum temperature (+&#x2009;11&#xa0;min/day, range&#x2009;=&#x2009;31.2&#xa0;&#xb0;C, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.002), cloud cover (+&#x2009;4&#xa0;min/day, range&#x2009;=&#x2009;8 eighths, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.008) and sunshine (+&#x2009;17&#xa0;min/day, range&#x2009;=&#x2009;13.9&#xa0;h, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001), and negatively associated with wind speed (-8&#xa0;min/day, range&#x2009;=&#x2009;36.7&#xa0;km/h, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001). MVPA was positively associated with sunshine (+&#x2009;3&#xa0;min/day, range&#x2009;=&#x2009;13.9&#xa0;h, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001) and negatively associated with minimum temperature (-13&#xa0;min/day, range&#x2009;=&#x2009;31.2&#xa0;oC, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001), rainfall (-3&#xa0;min/day, range&#x2009;=&#x2009;33.2&#xa0;mm, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.006) and wind speed (-4&#xa0;min/day, range&#x2009;=&#x2009;36.7&#xa0;km/h, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001). For maximum temperature, a significant (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.05) curvilinear association was observed with sleep (half-U) and physical activity (inverted-U), where the decrease in sleep duration appeared to slow around 23&#xa0;&#xb0;C, LPA peaked at 31&#xa0;oC and MVPA at 27&#xa0;&#xb0;C.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Generally, adults tended to be less active and more sedentary during extremes of weather and sleep less as temperatures rise. These findings have the potential to inform the timing and content of positive movement behaviour messaging and interventions.<br><br>TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was prospectively registered on the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (Trial ID: ACTRN12619001430123).}, }
@article {pmid36918722, year = {2023}, author = {DeAngelo, J and Saenz, BT and Arzeno-Soltero, IB and Frieder, CA and Long, MC and Hamman, J and Davis, KA and Davis, SJ}, title = {Author Correction: Economic and biophysical limits to seaweed farming for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {674}, doi = {10.1038/s41477-023-01393-1}, pmid = {36918722}, issn = {2055-0278}, support = {DE-AR0000920//DOE | Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy (Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy - U.S. Department of Energy)/ ; }, }
@article {pmid36918577, year = {2023}, author = {Del Ponte, A and Masiliūnas, A and Lim, N}, title = {Information about historical emissions drives the division of climate change mitigation costs.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1408}, pmid = {36918577}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Despite worsening climate change, the international community still disagrees on how to divide the costs of mitigation between developing countries and developed countries, which emitted the bulk of historical carbon emissions. We study this issue using an economic experiment. Specifically, we test how information about historical emissions influences how much participants pay for climate change mitigation. In a four-player game, participants are assigned to lead two fictional countries as members of either the first or the second generation. The first generation produces wealth at the expense of greater carbon emissions. The second generation inherits their predecessor's wealth and negotiates how to split the climate change mitigation costs. Here we show that when the second generation knows that the previous generation created the current wealth and mitigation costs, participants whose predecessor generated more carbon emissions offered to pay more, whereas the successors of low-carbon emitters offered to pay less.}, }
@article {pmid36918292, year = {2023}, author = {Dunne, H and Jones, A and Okorie, M}, title = {Combatting climate change using education and training in pharmacology and therapeutics.}, journal = {British journal of clinical pharmacology}, volume = {89}, number = {5}, pages = {1518-1520}, doi = {10.1111/bcp.15705}, pmid = {36918292}, issn = {1365-2125}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Curriculum ; *Education, Medical ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Pharmacology, Clinical/education ; }, abstract = {The climate crisis has implications for the physical and mental health of people worldwide, while, paradoxically, healthcare itself contributes significant greenhouse gas emissions. Healthcare professionals need to be prepared to both mitigate the impacts of climate change and also manage the health effects of the climate crisis. Widespread adoption of sustainable healthcare models is required, with sustainability-driven improvements in clinical pharmacology intrinsically linked to this. Recognizing that education and training are essential steps to equip medical professionals with the knowledge to face the unprecedented challenges that the climate crisis presents, here, with reference to pharmacology and therapeutics, we discuss how the theme of Education for Sustainable Healthcare (ESH) can be integrated into undergraduate and postgraduate teaching programmes and how barriers to successful implementation can be tackled. We support the use of the Principles of Sustainable Clinical Practice as a framework to guide educational interventions and draw upon examples of our own practice at Brighton and Sussex Medical School where ESH has become a core component of medical education in our undergraduate curriculum.}, }
@article {pmid36917602, year = {2023}, author = {Weber, D and McGrail, RK and Carlisle, AE and Harwood, JD and McCulley, RL}, title = {Climate change alters slug abundance but not herbivory in a temperate grassland.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {e0283128}, pmid = {36917602}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Grassland ; Climate Change ; *Gastropoda ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Climate change will significantly impact the world's ecosystems, in part by altering species interactions and ecological processes, such as herbivory and plant community dynamics, which may impact forage quality and ecosystem production. Yet relatively few field experimental manipulations assessing all of these parameters have been performed to date. To help fill this knowledge gap, we evaluated the effects of increased temperature (+3°C day and night, year-round) and precipitation (+30% of mean annual rainfall) on slug herbivory and abundance and plant community dynamics biweekly in a pasture located in central Kentucky, U.S.A. Warming increased slug abundance once during the winter, likely due to improving conditions for foraging, whereas warming reduced slug abundance at times in late spring, mid-summer, and early fall (from 62-95% reduction depending on month). We found that warming and increased precipitation did not significantly modify slug herbivory at our site, despite altering slug abundance and affecting plant community composition and forage quality. Climate change will alter seasonal patterns of slug abundance through both direct effects on slug biology and indirect effects mediated by changes in the plant community, suggesting that pasture management practices may have to adapt.}, }
@article {pmid36917187, year = {2023}, author = {D'Amato, G and D'Amato, M}, title = {Climate change, air pollution, pollen allergy and extreme atmospheric events.}, journal = {Current opinion in pediatrics}, volume = {35}, number = {3}, pages = {356-361}, doi = {10.1097/MOP.0000000000001237}, pmid = {36917187}, issn = {1531-698X}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/epidemiology/etiology ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Asthma/etiology/complications ; *Hypersensitivity ; Allergens/adverse effects ; *Biological Products ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Respiratory allergy correlates strictly with air pollution and climate change. Due to climate change, the atmospheric content of trigger factors such as pollens and moulds increase and induce rhinitis and asthma in sensitized patients with IgE-mediated allergic reactions.Pollen allergy is frequently used to evaluate the relationship between air pollution and allergic respiratory diseases. Pollen allergens trigger the release of immunomodulatory and pro-inflammatory mediators and accelerate the onset of sensitization to respiratory allergens in predisposed children and adults. Lightning storms during pollen seasons can exacerbate respiratory allergy and asthma not only in adults but also in children with pollinosis. In this study, we have focalized the trigger (chemical and biologic) factors of outdoor air pollution.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Environmental pollution and climate change have harmful effects on human health, particularly on respiratory system, with frequent impact on social systems.Climate change is characterized by physic meteorological events inducing increase of production and emission of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2) into the atmosphere. Allergenic plants produce more pollen as a response to high atmospheric levels of CO 2 . Climate change also affects extreme atmospheric events such as heat waves, droughts, thunderstorms, floods, cyclones and hurricanes. These climate events, in particular thunderstorms during pollen seasons, can increase the intensity of asthma attacks in pollinosis patients.<br><br>SUMMARY: Climate change has important effects on the start and pathogenetic aspects of hypersensitivity of pollen allergy. Climate change causes an increase in the production of pollen and a change in the aspects increasing their allergenic properties. Through the effects of climate change, plant growth can be altered so that the new pollen produced are modified affecting more the human health. The need for public education and adoption of governmental measures to prevent environmental pollution and climate change are urgent. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, chemical and biologic contributors to air pollution are of critical importance. Extreme weather phenomena such as thunderstorms can trigger exacerbations of asthma attacks and need to be prevented with a correct information and therapy.}, }
@article {pmid36916733, year = {2023}, author = {Brennan, MM and Herlihy, A and Kelly, S and Lawlor, C and Heavey, L}, title = {Treat Climate Change like the Public Health Emergency it is.}, journal = {Irish medical journal}, volume = {116}, number = {No.1}, pages = {4}, pmid = {36916733}, issn = {0332-3102}, mesh = {Humans ; *Public Health ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36915081, year = {2023}, author = {Petrescu-Mag, RM and Petrescu, DC and Ivan, A and Tenter, A}, title = {An intergenerational reading of climate change-health concern nexus: a qualitative study of the Millennials' and Gen Z participants' perceptions.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {484}, pmid = {36915081}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Reading ; Motivation ; Attitude ; Intergenerational Relations ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The study of climate change through a generational lens is meaningful when one considers the distinct attitudes, behaviors, values, and motivations of each generation. Individuals born between 1980 and 1999, referred to as the Millennial Generation (Millennials) and individuals born up to five years before or after 2000, referred to as Generation Z (Gen Z), may differ widely in their views, values, attitudes, and behaviors. This may lead to conflicts between these two cohorts. As Gen Z enters the labor market, their first-level supervisors will be, in many cases, the Millennials, who may view the topic of climate change-health concern nexus very differently than their Gen Z subordinates. Considering the perspectives of each generation may offer insights on how to engage them to act in an environmentally responsible way to counteract climate change effects.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The study reveals similarities and differences in how Millennials and Gen Z perceive the climate change-health concern nexus, which illuminates the understanding of the potential generational conflicts and the critical points where intervention is needed.<br><br>METHOD: Interview data from 41 participants were analyzed via thematic analysis using the Quirkos software program. Reporting is in accordance with the COREQ guidelines.<br><br>RESULTS: The interview questions elicited responses related to five dimensions: (i) Views of individual and community health; (ii) Knowledge around climate change; (iii) Perceived health impact; (iv) Attitudes towards climate change; (v) Behaviors related to climate change. The findings revealed a set of commonalities and differences in understanding the climate change-health concern nexus between the participants representative of each of the generations examined. One main result is that while most interviewees perceived changes in summer and winter temperatures, they failed to articulate how climate change affected their health.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Thematic analysis revealed that the commonalities of views outweigh the differences between the two generations. A relevant remark is that participants can be described rather as "observers" than "players" since they do not tend to see themselves (through their behavior and their contribution) as active participants in the goal to fight climate change. Consequently, both generations undergo what Stephen Gardiner [1] called "intergenerational buck-passing."}, }
@article {pmid36914770, year = {2023}, author = {Bagambilana, FR and Rugumamu, WM}, title = {Determinants of Farmers' Adaptation Intent And Adoption of Adaptation Strategies To Climate Change And Variability In Mwanga District, Tanzania.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {72}, number = {4}, pages = {785-804}, pmid = {36914770}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Humans ; *Farmers ; *Climate Change ; Tanzania ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Farms ; Agriculture/methods ; }, abstract = {Pegged on Protection Motivation Theory, a modified socio-cognitive model of private adaptation to climate change and variability was deployed in order to provide a better understanding of the determinants of small-scale farmers' adaptation intent and adoption of adaptation strategies in semi-arid lowlands of Mwanga District. In this regard, adaptation was conceptualized as a two-step process encompassing farmers' perceptions that climate was changing and farmers' response to changes. Basing on a pragmatic philosophy, a cross-sectional sequential explanatory mixed methods research design was deployed. During the first step-process, categorical data were collected through administration of a closed-ended survey questionnaire to 328 household heads. Binary and proportional odds logistic regressions were run through IBM SPSS (Version 20) in order to analyze categorical data for testing nine (9) null hypotheses. Statistically significant results were established when p values were < 0.05 at 95% confidence intervals. During the second step-process, qualitative data were generated through focus group discussions with 30 participants, in-depth interviews with 16 key informants, and participant observations and subjected to iterative thematic content analysis. The findings revealed that income, village's geographical location, farming system, membership to farmer-based group, competitive price for produce, credit, age, education, and extension service positively influenced farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies while workforce and perceived risk of rain on crop yields negatively influenced farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies. Thus, it was concluded that farmers' adaptation intent and adoption of adaptation strategies in the study area were largely explained by objective adaptive capacity rather than cognitive factors.}, }
@article {pmid36914628, year = {2023}, author = {Mi, C and Ma, L and Yang, M and Li, X and Meiri, S and Roll, U and Oskyrko, O and Pincheira-Donoso, D and Harvey, LP and Jablonski, D and Safaei-Mahroo, B and Ghaffari, H and Smid, J and Jarvie, S and Kimani, RM and Masroor, R and Kazemi, SM and Nneji, LM and Fokoua, AMT and Tasse Taboue, GC and Bauer, A and Nogueira, C and Meirte, D and Chapple, DG and Das, I and Grismer, L and Avila, LJ and Ribeiro Júnior, MA and Tallowin, OJS and Torres-Carvajal, O and Wagner, P and Ron, SR and Wang, Y and Itescu, Y and Nagy, ZT and Wilcove, DS and Liu, X and Du, W}, title = {Global Protected Areas as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1389}, pmid = {36914628}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Reptiles ; Amphibians ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Protected Areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. Here, we collated distributional data for >14,000 (~70% of) species of amphibians and reptiles (herpetofauna) to perform a global assessment of the conservation effectiveness of PAs using species distribution models. Our analyses reveal that >91% of herpetofauna species are currently distributed in PAs, and that this proportion will remain unaltered under future climate change. Indeed, loss of species' distributional ranges will be lower inside PAs than outside them. Therefore, the proportion of effectively protected species is predicted to increase. However, over 7.8% of species currently occur outside PAs, and large spatial conservation gaps remain, mainly across tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, and across non-high-income countries. We also predict that more than 300 amphibian and 500 reptile species may go extinct under climate change over the course of the ongoing century. Our study highlights the importance of PAs in providing herpetofauna with refuge from climate change, and suggests ways to optimize PAs to better conserve biodiversity worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid36913583, year = {2023}, author = {Jouberton, A and Miles, ES and Shaw, TE and McCarthy, M and Fugger, S and Pellicciotti, F}, title = {Reply to Yang et al.: Global warming and black carbon simultaneously lead to glacier mass decline over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {12}, pages = {e2301467120}, pmid = {36913583}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {772751//EC | ERC | HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council (ERC)/ ; 189890//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (SNF)/ ; }, }
@article {pmid36913312, year = {2023}, author = {Gaston, SA and Singh, R and Jackson, CL}, title = {The need to study the role of sleep in climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resiliency strategies across the life course.}, journal = {Sleep}, volume = {46}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {36913312}, issn = {1550-9109}, support = {Z1A ES103325/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Acclimatization ; Sleep ; Electroencephalography ; }, }
@article {pmid36912708, year = {2023}, author = {Choi, SH and Beer, J and Charrow, A}, title = {Climate change and the displaced person: how vectors and climate are changing the landscape of infectious diseases among displaced and migrant populations.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {681-684}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.16636}, pmid = {36912708}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Humans ; *Refugees ; Climate Change ; *Transients and Migrants ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Skin ; *Zika Virus Infection ; *Zika Virus ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: As the climate crisis grows, so does the global burden of displacement. Displacement, whether a direct or indirect consequence of natural disaster, can lead to dire health sequelae. Skin health is no exception to this, with dermatologic disease being a leading concern reported by those who care for displaced persons. Health professionals who provide dermatologic care for displaced persons benefit from understanding how climate change impacts the global profile of infectious agents.<br><br>METHODS: This review was performed using PubMed and Google Scholar. Search terms included climate change, displaced person, internally displaced person, and refugee, as well as searches of infectious disease dermatology and the specific diseases of interest. Case reports, case series, reviews, and original research articles were included in this review. Non-English studies were not included.<br><br>RESULTS: In this manuscript several key infectious agents were identified, and we discuss the skin manifestations and impact of climate change on cutaneous leishmaniasis, dengue, chikungunya, zika, malaria, pediculosis, cutaneous larva migrans, cholera, and varicella zoster.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change plays a significant role in the challenges faced by displaced persons, including their skin health. Among the many consequences of climate change is its altering of the ecological profile of infectious agents and vectors that impact displaced persons. Being familiar with this impact can improve dermatologic care for this vulnerable population.}, }
@article {pmid36912581, year = {2023}, author = {Lubin, RE and Edmondson, D and Otto, MW}, title = {Climate change views examined through a behavioral medicine frame: are there potential target mechanisms for change beyond political ideology?.}, journal = {Psychology, health &amp; medicine}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {1938-1949}, pmid = {36912581}, issn = {1465-3966}, support = {U24 AG052175/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; *Climate Change ; *Behavioral Medicine ; Attitude ; Health Behavior ; Anxiety ; }, abstract = {The threat of climate change is associated with both profound health consequences and failures by many individuals to take preventive actions. Behavioral science research on health behavior engagement may serve as a lens through which to better understand attitudes associated with the threat of climate change. This study was designed to examine individual differences in attitudinal responses to climate change, understanding the degree to which these responses can be predicted by both political beliefs and more readily modified psychological factors commonly associated with health behavior engagement: locus of control, anxiety sensitivity, delay discounting, and intolerance of uncertainty. Participants (N = 234) were US adults (62% male; 57% Non-Hispanic White; 44% Democrat) who completed an online survey. Stepwise multiple linear regressions examined which variables provided non-redundant prediction in models of climate change beliefs and concerns. In addition to providing support for the role of political affiliation and related ideology in climate change views (9-23% variance), this study underscores the importance of a behavioral health frame in understanding climate change concerns and beliefs. Known risk factors for negative health behaviors - prominently, locus of control, anxiety sensitivity, and delay discounting - contributed strongly to the understanding of these views, accounting for 4-28% of variance. Our findings encourage greater attention to health behavior-related constructs for understanding attitudes relevant to climate change action.}, }
@article {pmid36911296, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and El Adawy, M and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Malaudzi, FM and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Mohammad, SY and Sidibe, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {Advanced genetics (Hoboken, N.J.)}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {2200028}, pmid = {36911296}, issn = {2641-6573}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, }
@article {pmid36911170, year = {2023}, author = {Posocco, L and McNeill, JR}, title = {Climate change: Comparing "green" and "polluting" nation-states.}, journal = {Frontiers in sociology}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {1133333}, pmid = {36911170}, issn = {2297-7775}, abstract = {Some nation-states, i.e., Norway, Sweden, and Denmark, repeatedly score the highest in environmental indicators such as the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) and the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI). Their cities win environmental awards; they have well-developed recycling systems; they perform well with biodegradable waste; and their citizens show awareness of environmental problems, protesting publicly and even sueing their governing bodies if they don't do the same. For these and other reasons, recent scholarship defined these countries as "exemplary" green nation-states. The question is, which factors pushed them toward the green transition faster than others? And overall, what stops top polluting countries such as China, the United States and Russia from walking the same path? This article attempts to answer these questions by looking at climate change through a theoretical framework based on theories of nationalism and case studies of green nation-states. It compares three of said top polluting countries, China, the United States, and Russia, with "exemplary" green nation-states, and argues that the pace of greener nation-states rests on (1) a tradition of ecologism and environmentalism rooted in the long run, (2) the lock in of "green nationalism," a form of nationalism grounded on sustainability, (3) free and effective environmental movements, (4) inclusivity and welfare, and (5) a sense of national pride in environmental achievements. The available evidence seems to suggest that top polluting nation-states lack one or more of these factors.}, }
@article {pmid36910944, year = {2023}, author = {Naguib, HM and Zaki, EG and Abdelsattar, DE and Dhmees, AS and Azab, MA and Elsaeed, SM and Kandil, UF}, title = {Environmentally Friendly Polymer Concrete: Polymer Treatment, Processing, and Investigating Carbon Footprint with Climate Change.}, journal = {ACS omega}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {8804-8814}, pmid = {36910944}, issn = {2470-1343}, abstract = {Climate change is being currently faced globally; controlling the plastic waste and gas emission is aimed to reduce their hazardous effects. In this work, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) polymer wastes are used as fillers to calcium silicate. Chemical treatment was performed to get the best efficiency of the binder material with the treated PET (TPET) and treated PVC (TPVC). The used silicate, new nonhydraulic dicalcium silicate, was synthesized by sintering. A new environmentally friendly polymer concrete, based on different concentrations of PET-/TPET-/PVC-/TPVC-dicalcium silicate composites, was prepared and cured by carbonation. FTIR analysis confirms that the treatment gave functional groups on the polymer surface; also, the hydrophilicity was increased after treatment. SEM photos show that the treated polymers have a rougher surface, which led to improved attachment with cement. The structures of the prepared and cured cement materials are proved by XRD, FTIR analysis, and SEM, through the change of calcium silicate to carbonate. Carbon footprint is used to analyze the environmental implications of the prepared composites. After the treatment reaction, the TPET-cement and TPVC-cement composites showed improved compression and flexural properties and more stability against water absorption. The novelty arises from recycling this plastic waste in the proposed low-energy dicalcium silicate cement, for the first time, to give improved environmentally friendly composites after converting CO2 gas to carbonates, with the reduced carbon footprint.}, }
@article {pmid36910396, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, JK and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {African health sciences}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {vi-viii}, pmid = {36910396}, issn = {1729-0503}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36908811, year = {2023}, author = {Pereira Campos, C and Bitar, SDB and Freitas, C}, title = {Uncertainties regarding the natural mortality of fish can increase due global climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e14989}, pmid = {36908811}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Causality ; *Fishes ; Uncertainty ; Fisheries ; }, abstract = {The increase in temperature resulting from global climate change can directly affect the survival of fish and therefore population parameters such as natural mortality (M). The estimation of this parameter and the understanding of the uncertainties in its estimates are enormous challenges for studies that evaluate fish stocks. In addition, the effects of increases in temperature may be associated with life strategies. Therefore, the fuzzy set theory was used to evaluate the effects of temperature increase on the natural mortality of fish, considering different life strategies. The model showed that the increase in temperature increased the uncertainties in M estimates for all species, regardless of the life strategy. However, opportunistic species present greater uncertainties in estimates of M compared to equilibrium species. The patterns found in uncertainties of M associated with species groupings by life strategies can be used in holistic approaches for the assessment and management of recently exploited fisheries resources or for those with limited biological data.}, }
@article {pmid36908379, year = {2022}, author = {D'Amore, C and Grimaldi, P and Ascione, T and Conti, V and Sellitto, C and Franci, G and Kafil, SH and Pagliano, P}, title = {West Nile Virus diffusion in temperate regions and climate change. A systematic review.}, journal = {Le infezioni in medicina}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {20-30}, pmid = {36908379}, issn = {2532-8689}, abstract = {West Nile virus (WNV) is a member of the Japanese encephalitis serocomplex, which was first described in 1937 as neurotropic virus in Uganda in 1937. Subsequently, WNV was identified in the rest of the old-world and from 1999 in North America. Birds are the primary hosts, and WNV is maintained in a bird-mosquito-bird cycle, with pigs as amplifying hosts and humans and horses as incidental hosts. WNV transmission is warranted by mosquitoes, usually of the Culex spp., with a tendency to spill over when mosquitoes' populations build up. Other types of transmissions have been described in endemic areas, as trough transplanted organs and transfused blood, placenta, maternal milk, and in some occupational settings. WNV infections in North America and Europe are generally reported during the summer and autumn. Extreme climate phenomena and soil degradation are important events which contribute to expansion of mosquito population and consequently to the increasing number of infections. Draught plays a pivotal role as it makes foul water standing in city drains and catch basins richer of organic material. The relationship between global warming and WNV in climate areas is depicted by investigations on 16,298 WNV cases observed in the United States during the period 2001-2005 that showed that a 5°C increase in mean maximum weekly temperature was associated with a 32-50% higher incidence of WNV infection. In Europe, during the 2022 season, an increase of WNV cases was observed in Mediterranean countries where 1,041 cases were reported based on ECDC data. This outbreak can be associated to the climate characteristics reported during this period and to the introduction of a new WNV-1 lineage. In conclusion, current climate change is causing an increase of mosquito circulation that supports the widest spread of some vector-borne virus including WNV diffusion in previously non-permissible areas. This warrant public health measures to control vectors circulation to reduce WNV and to screen blood and organ donations.}, }
@article {pmid36907391, year = {2023}, author = {Mesquita, AF and Jesus, F and Gonçalves, FJM and Gonçalves, AMM}, title = {Ecotoxicological and biochemical effects of a binary mixture of pesticides on the marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii in a scenario of global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {876}, number = {}, pages = {162737}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162737}, pmid = {36907391}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Pesticides/toxicity ; *Diatoms/physiology ; Global Warming ; Sugars ; }, abstract = {Under the current scenario of global warming, it is ecologically relevant to understand how increased temperature influences the combined toxicity of pesticides to aquatic species. Hence, this work aims to: a) determine the temperature effect (15 °C, 20 °C and 25 °C) on the toxicity of two pesticides (oxyfluorfen and Copper (Cu)), on the growth of Thalassiosira weissflogii; b) assess whether temperature affects the type of toxicity interaction between these chemicals; and c) assess the temperature effect on biochemical responses (fatty acids (FA) and sugar profiles) of the pesticides on T. weissflogii. Temperature increased the tolerance of the diatoms to the pesticides with EC50 values between 3.176 and 9.929 μg L[-1] for oxyfluorfen and 42.50-230.75 μg L[-1] for Cu, respectively, at 15 °C and 25 °C. The mixtures toxicity was better described by the IA model, but temperature altered the type of deviation from dose ratio (15 °C and 20 °C) to antagonism (25 °C). Temperature, as well as the pesticide concentrations, affected the FA and sugar profiles. Increased temperature increased saturated FA and decreased unsaturated FA; it also affected the sugar profiles with a pronounced minimum at 20 °C. Results highlight effects on the nutritional value of these diatoms, with potential repercussion on food webs.}, }
@article {pmid36907078, year = {2023}, author = {Freitas, D and Borges, D and Arenas, F and Pinto, IS and Vale, CG}, title = {Forecasting distributional shifts of Patella spp. in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, under climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {186}, number = {}, pages = {105945}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105945}, pmid = {36907078}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Patella ; Atlantic Ocean ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Mapping species' geographical distribution is fundamental for understanding current patterns and forecasting future changes. Living on rocky shores along the intertidal zone, limpets are vulnerable to climate change, as their range limits are controlled by seawater temperature. Many works have been studying limpets' potential responses to climate change at local and regional scales. Focusing on four Patella species living on the rocky shores of the Portuguese continental coast, this study aims to predict climate change impacts on their global distribution, while exploring the role of the Portuguese intertidal as potential climate refugia. Ecological niche models combine occurrences and environmental data to identify the drivers of these species' distributions, define their current range, and project to future climate scenarios. The distribution of these limpets was mostly defined by low bathymetry (intertidal) and the seawater temperature. Independent of the climate scenario, all species will gain suitable conditions at the northern distribution edge while losing in the south, yet only the extent of occurrence of P. rustica is expected to contract. Apart from the southern coast, maintenance of suitable conditions for these limpets' occurrence was predicted for the western coast of Portugal. The predicted northward range shift follows the observed pattern observed for many intertidal species. Given the ecosystem role of this species, attention should be given to their southern range limits. Under the current upwelling effect, the Portuguese western coast might constitute thermal refugia for limpets in the future.}, }
@article {pmid36906142, year = {2023}, author = {Johnson, DM and Haynes, KJ}, title = {Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest insect populations under climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {56}, number = {}, pages = {101020}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2023.101020}, pmid = {36906142}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Insecta/physiology ; Forests ; Trees/physiology ; *Weevils ; }, abstract = {Effects of climate on forest insect populations are complex, often involving drivers that are opposing, nonlinear, and nonadditive. Overall, climate change is driving an increase in outbreaks and range shifts. Links between climate and forest insect dynamics are becoming clearer; however, the underlying mechanisms remain less clear. Climate alters forest insect population dynamics directly through life history, physiology, and voltinism, and indirectly through effects on host trees and natural enemies. Climatic effects on bark beetles, wood-boring insects, and sap-suckers are often indirect, through effects on host-tree susceptibility, whereas climatic effects on defoliators are comparatively more direct. We recommend process-based approaches to global distribution mapping and population models to identify the underlying mechanisms and enable effective management of forest insects.}, }
@article {pmid36906057, year = {2023}, author = {Barbosa, H and Soares, AMVM and Pereira, E and Freitas, R}, title = {Are the consequences of lithium in marine clams enhanced by climate change?.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {326}, number = {}, pages = {121416}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121416}, pmid = {36906057}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; Lithium/pharmacology ; Climate Change ; *Bivalvia ; Water ; Salinity ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Coastal areas, such as estuaries and coastal lagoons, are among the most endangered aquatic ecosystems due to the intense anthropogenic activities occurring in their vicinity. These areas are highly threatened by climate change-related factors as well as pollution, especially due to their limited water exchange. Ocean warming and extreme weather events, such as marine heatwaves and rainy periods, are some of the consequences of climate change, inducing alterations in the abiotic parameters of seawater, namely temperature and salinity, which may affect the organisms as well as the behaviour of some pollutants present in water. Lithium (Li) is an element widely used in several industries, especially in the production of batteries for electronic gadgets and electric vehicles. The demand for its exploitation has been growing drastically and is predicted a large increase in the coming years. Inefficient recycling, treatment and disposal results in the release of Li into the aquatic systems, the consequences of which are poorly understood, especially in the context of climate change. Considering that a limited number of studies exist about the impacts of Li on marine species, the present study aimed to assess the effects of temperature rise and salinity changes on the impacts of Li in clams (Venerupis corrugata) collected from the Ria de Aveiro (coastal lagoon, Portugal). Clams were exposed for 14 days to 0 μg/L of Li and 200 μg/L of Li, both conditions under different climate scenarios: 3 different salinities (20, 30 and 40) at 17 °C (control temperature); and 2 different temperatures (17 and 21 °C) at salinity 30 (control salinity). Bioconcentration capacity and biochemical alterations regarding metabolism and oxidative stress were investigated. Salinity variations had a higher impact on biochemical responses than temperature increase, even when combined with Li. The combination of Li with low salinity (20) was the most stressful treatment, provoking increased metabolism and activation of detoxification defences, suggesting possible imbalances in coastal ecosystems in response to Li pollution under extreme weather events. These findings may ultimately contribute to implement environmentally protective actions to mitigate Li contamination and preserve marine life.}, }
@article {pmid36905992, year = {2023}, author = {Avotra, AARN and Nawaz, A}, title = {Asymmetric impact of transportation on carbon emissions influencing SDGs of climate change.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {324}, number = {}, pages = {138301}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2023.138301}, pmid = {36905992}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {*Sustainable Development ; *Climate Change ; Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Environmental Pollution/analysis ; Renewable Energy ; Economic Development ; }, abstract = {Transportation facilities have expanded globally because of rapid industrialization and economic growth. Transportation involves substantial use of energy therefore strongly linked with environmental pollution. This study intends to explore linkages among transport from air mode, combustible renewable energy and waste, GDP, energy use, oil prices, trade expansion, and carbon releases from airline transport. The data covered in the study ranged from 1971 to 2021. For the empirical analysis, the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) methodology has been applied in order to explore the asymmetric impact of the variables of interest. Prior to this, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test is applied whose results demonstrate that variables included in the model contain mixed order of integration. The NARDL estimates show that the "positive shock to air transport and positive and negative shock to energy usage results in the increase of CO2 emissions per capita in the long run. While, a "positive (negative) shock" to renewable energy use and trade expansion reduces (increases) transport-related carbon discharge. The Error Correction Term (ECT) carries a negative sign implying a stability adjustment in the long run. These asymmetric components in our study can be employed in cost-benefit analysis and encompass the environmental repercussions (asymmetric) of government and management actions. The study suggests that the government of Pakistan should promote financing for renewable energy consumption and clean trade expansion to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) objective 13.}, }
@article {pmid36900886, year = {2023}, author = {Stankov, U and Filimonau, V and Vujičić, MD and Basarin, B and Carmer, AB and Lazić, L and Hansen, BK and Ćirić Lalić, D and Mujkić, D}, title = {Ready for Action! Destination Climate Change Communication: An Archetypal Branding Approach.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {36900886}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; *Courage ; }, abstract = {At the destination level, destination branding may coexist with climate change communication. These two communication streams often overlap because they are both designed for large audiences. This poses a risk to the effectiveness of climate change communication and its ability to prompt a desired climate action. The viewpoint paper advocates the use of archetypal branding approach to ground and center climate change communication at a destination level while concurrently maintaining the uniqueness of destination branding. Three archetypes of destinations are distinguished: villains, victims, and heroes. Destinations should refrain from actions that would make them appear to be climate change villains. A balanced approach is further warranted when portraying destinations as victims. Lastly, destinations should aim at assuming the heroic archetypes by excelling in climate change mitigation. The basic mechanisms of the archetypal approach to destination branding are discussed alongside a framework that suggests areas for further practical investigation of climate change communication at a destination level.}, }
@article {pmid36899717, year = {2023}, author = {Lu, G and Zhang, X and Li, X and Zhang, S}, title = {Immunity and Growth Plasticity of Asian Short-Toed Lark Nestlings in Response to Changes in Food Conditions: Can It Buffer the Challenge of Climate Change-Induced Trophic Mismatch?.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {36899717}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {31872246//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Passerine nestlings frequently suffer from sub-optimal food conditions due to climate change-induced trophic mismatch between the nestlings and their optimal food resources. The ability of nestlings to buffer this challenge is less well understood. We hypothesized that poor food conditions might induce a higher immune response and lower growth rate of nestlings, and such physiological plasticity is conducive to nestling survival. To test this, we examined how food (grasshopper nymphs) abundance affects the expression of interferon-γ (IFN-γ), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin-1 β (IL-1β) genes, plasma IGF-1 levels, body mass, and fledging rates in wild Asian short-toed lark (Alaudala cheleensis) nestlings. Linear mixed models revealed that nymph biomass significantly influenced the expression of IFN-γ, TNF-α, and IL-1β genes, and the level of plasma IGF-1. The expressions of IFN-γ, TNF-α, and IL-1β genes were negatively correlated with nymph biomass and plasma IGF-1 level. Plasma IGF-1 level, nestling body mass growth rate, was positively correlated with nymph biomass. Despite a positive correlation between the nestling fledge rate and nymph biomass, more than 60% of nestlings fledged when nymph biomass was at the lowest level. These results suggest that immunity and growth plasticity of nestlings may be an adaptation for birds to buffer the negative effects of trophic mismatch.}, }
@article {pmid36899712, year = {2023}, author = {Fu, A and Gao, E and Tang, X and Liu, Z and Hu, F and Zhan, Z and Wang, J and Luan, X}, title = {MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Potential Wintering Distribution of Eurasian Spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia leucorodia) under Climate Change in China.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {36899712}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {2017-4-21//the Second National Survey on Terrestrial Wildlife Resources in China (2017-4-21)/ ; 2017-4-20//the National Waterbird Simultaneous Survey of China in 2016 (2017-4-20)/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate change has become a trend and is one of the main factors affecting biodiversity patterns and species distributions. Many wild animals adapt to the changing living environment caused by climate change by changing their habitats. Birds are highly sensitive to climate change. Understanding the suitable wintering habitat of the Eurasian Spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia leucorodia) and its response to future climatic change is essential for its protection. In China, it was listed as national grade II key protected wild animal in the adjusted State List of key protected wild animals in 2021, in Near Threatened status. Few studies on the distribution of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill have been carried out in China. In this study, we simulated the suitable habitat under the current period and modeled the distribution dynamics of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill in response to climate change under different periods by using the MaxEnt model. Our results showed that the current suitable wintering habitats for the Eurasian Spoonbill are mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Distance from the water, precipitation of the driest quarter, altitude, and mean temperature of the driest quarter contributed the most to the distribution model for the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill, with a cumulative contribution of 85%. Future modeling showed that the suitable distribution of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill extends to the north as a whole, and the suitable area shows an increasing trend. Our simulation results are helpful in understanding the distribution of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill under different periods in China and support species conservation.}, }
@article {pmid36898237, year = {2023}, author = {Kashyap, R and Kuttippurath, J and Kumar, P}, title = {Browning of vegetation in efficient carbon sink regions of India during the past two decades is driven by climate change and anthropogenic intrusions.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {336}, number = {}, pages = {117655}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117655}, pmid = {36898237}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Soil ; India ; Carbon/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Accurate estimation of carbon cycle is a challenging task owing to the complexity and heterogeneity of ecosystems. Carbon Use Efficiency (CUE) is a metric to define the ability of vegetation to sequester carbon from the atmosphere. It is key to understand the carbon sink and source pathways of ecosystems. Here, we quantify CUE using remote sensing measurements to examine its variability, drivers and underlying mechanisms in India for the period 2000-2019, by applying the principal component analyses (PCA), multiple linear regression (MLR) and causal discovery. Our analysis shows that the forests in the hilly regions (HR) and northeast (NE), and croplands in the western areas of South India (SI) exhibit high (>0.6) CUE. The northwest (NW), Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) and some areas in Central India (CI) show low (<0.3) CUE. In general, the water availability as soil moisture (SM) and precipitation (P) promote higher CUE, but higher temperature (T) and air organic carbon content (AOCC) reduce CUE. It is found that SM has the strongest relative influence (33%) on CUE, followed by P. Also, SM has a direct causal link with all drivers and CUE; reiterating its importance in driving vegetation carbon dynamics (VCD) for the cropland dominated India. The long-term analysis reveals that the low CUE regions in NW (moisture induced greening) and IGP (irrigation induced agricultural boom) have an increasing trend in productivity (greening). However, the high CUE regions in NE (deforestation and extreme events) and SI (warming induced moisture stress) exhibit a decreasing trend in productivity (browning), which is a great concern. Our study, therefore, provides new insights on the rate of carbon allocation and the need of proper planning for maintaining balance in the terrestrial carbon cycle. This is particularly important in the context of drafting policy decisions for the mitigation of climate change, food security and sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid36898187, year = {2023}, author = {Magda, LN and Chan, K and Bin-Hasan, S and Gringras, P}, title = {Endorsement of the International Pediatric Association's declaration on the impact of climate change on children by the International Pediatric Sleep Association and World Sleep Society.}, journal = {Sleep medicine}, volume = {104}, number = {}, pages = {56-57}, doi = {10.1016/j.sleep.2023.01.029}, pmid = {36898187}, issn = {1878-5506}, mesh = {Humans ; Child ; *Climate Change ; *Societies ; }, }
@article {pmid36897946, year = {2023}, author = {Zhou, S and Yu, B and Zhang, Y}, title = {Global concurrent climate extremes exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {eabo1638}, pmid = {36897946}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Increases in concurrent climate extremes in different parts of the world threaten the ecosystem and our society. However, spatial patterns of these extremes and their past and future changes remain unclear. Here, we develop a statistical framework to test for spatial dependence and show widespread dependence of temperature and precipitation extremes in observations and model simulations, with more frequent than expected concurrence of extremes around the world. Historical anthropogenic forcing has strengthened the concurrence of temperature extremes over 56% of 946 global paired regions, particularly in the tropics, but has not yet significantly affected concurrent precipitation extremes during 1901-2020. The future high-emissions pathway of SSP585 will substantially amplify the concurrence strength, intensity, and spatial extent for both temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over tropical and boreal regions, while the mitigation pathway of SSP126 can ameliorate the increase in concurrent climate extremes for these high-risk regions. Our findings will inform adaptation strategies to alleviate the impact of future climate extremes.}, }
@article {pmid36897640, year = {2023}, author = {Uddin, MM and Abdul Aziz, A and Lovelock, CE}, title = {Importance of mangrove plantations for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {3331-3346}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16674}, pmid = {36897640}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Wetlands ; Climate Change ; Bangladesh ; Soil ; Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Sequestration ; }, abstract = {Mangroves have been identified as blue carbon ecosystems that are natural carbon sinks. In Bangladesh, the establishment of mangrove plantations for coastal protection has occurred since the 1960s, but the plantations may also be a sustainable pathway to enhance carbon sequestration, which can help Bangladesh meet its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets, contributing to climate change mitigation. As a part of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement 2016, Bangladesh is committed to limiting the GHG emissions through the expansion of mangrove plantations, but the level of carbon removal that could be achieved through the establishment of plantations has not yet been estimated. The mean ecosystem carbon stock of 5-42 years aged (average age: 25.5 years) mangrove plantations was 190.1 (±30.3) Mg C ha[-1] , with ecosystem carbon stocks varying regionally. The biomass carbon stock was 60.3 (±5.6) Mg C ha[-1] and the soil carbon stock was 129.8 (±24.8) Mg C ha[-1] in the top 1 m of which 43.9 Mg C ha[-1] was added to the soil after plantation establishment. Plantations at age 5 to 42 years achieved 52% of the mean ecosystem carbon stock calculated for the reference site (Sundarbans natural mangroves). Since 1966, the 28,000 ha of established plantations to the east of the Sundarbans have accumulated approximately 76,607 Mg C year[-1] sequestration in biomass and 37,542 Mg C year[-1] sequestration in soils, totaling 114,149 Mg C year[-1] . Continuation of the current plantation success rate would sequester an additional 664,850 Mg C by 2030, which is 4.4% of Bangladesh's 2030 GHG reduction target from all sectors described in its NDC, however, plantations for climate change mitigation would be most effective 20 years after establishment. Higher levels of investment in mangrove plantations and higher plantation establishment success could contribute up to 2,098,093 Mg C to blue carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation in Bangladesh by 2030.}, }
@article {pmid36897509, year = {2023}, author = {Akyol, A and Örücü, &#xd6;K and Arslan, ES and Sarıkaya, AG}, title = {Predicting of the current and future geographical distribution of Laurus nobilis L. under the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {4}, pages = {459}, pmid = {36897509}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Laurus ; Environmental Monitoring ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Today, climate change affects all living things on earth. It also leads to serious losses in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human welfare. In this context, Laurus nobilis L. is a very important species for Turkey, and the Mediterranean countries. This research aimed to simulate the current distribution of the suitable habitat for L. nobilis in Turkey and to predict its possible range shifts in future climate scenarios. To predict the geographical distribution of L. nobilis, the study used the maximum-entropy algorithm-based MaxEnt 3.4.1 with seven bioclimatic variables created using the Community Climate System Model 4.0 (CCSM4) and the prediction models RCP4.5-8.5 for the years 2050-2070. The results indicated that the most important bioclimatic variables that shape the distribution of L. nobilis are BIO11-mean temperature of coldest quarter, and BIO7-annual temperature range. Two climate change scenarios predicted that the geographical distribution of L. nobilis would increase slightly and then decrease in the future. However, the spatial change analysis showed that the general geographical distribution area of L. nobilis did not change significantly, but the "moderate," "high," and "very high" suitable habitats changed towards "low" suitable habitats. These changes were particularly effective in Turkey's Mediterranean region, which shows that climate change is instrumental in determining the future of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Therefore, suitability mapping and change analysis of potential future bioclimatic habitats can help in planning for land use, conservation, and ecological restoration of L. nobilis.}, }
@article {pmid36897456, year = {2023}, author = {Huang, S and Zhang, W and Hong, Z and Yuan, Y and Tan, Z and Wang, Y and Chen, Z and Zheng, J and Zhang, Z and Zhang, L and Chen, M}, title = {Geographic distribution and impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats of Glycyrrhiza species in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {19}, pages = {55625-55634}, pmid = {36897456}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {No. 2021GDKLPRB02//Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant Resources Biorefinery/ ; No. 2020A1515110715//Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation of Guangdong Province/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; China ; *Glycyrrhiza ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a major impact on the growth and distribution of plants. Glycyrrhiza is widely used in the treatment of many diseases in China. However, with the overexploitation and the growing demand for medicinal uses in of Glycyrrhiza plants. The investigation of the geographical distribution of Glycyrrhiza plants and the analysis of future climate change are of great significance for the conservation of Glycyrrhiza. In this study, combined with administrative maps of Chinese provinces, the present and future of geographical distribution and richness of six Glycyrrhiza plants in China were studied by using DIVA-GIS and MaxEnt software. A total of 981 herbarium records of these six species of Glycyrrhiza were collected to research. Results show that the change of climate in the future will lead to an increase in habitat suitability for some Glycyrrhiza species as follows: Glycyrrhiza inflata by 61.6%, Glycyrrhiza squamulosa by 47.5%, Glycyrrhiza pallidiflora by 34.0%, Glycyrrhiza yunnanensis by 49.0%, Glycyrrhiza glabra by 51.7%, and Glycyrrhiza aspera by 65.9%. Glycyrrhiza plants have considerable medicinal and economic value, so it is necessary to adopt targeted development and rational management strategies for it.}, }
@article {pmid36897442, year = {2023}, author = {Fu, L and Xu, Y and Zhao, D and Wu, B and Xu, Z}, title = {Analysis of coniferous tree growth gradients in relation to regional pollution and climate change in the Miyun Reservoir Basin, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {19}, pages = {55635-55648}, pmid = {36897442}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {41901365//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41771464//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41991232//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Tracheophyta ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; Forests ; *Pinus ; Water/analysis ; Nitrogen/analysis ; }, abstract = {Forests play a crucial role in regulating regional climate and mitigating local air pollution, but little is known about their responding to such changes. This study aimed to examine the potential responses of Pinus tabuliformis, the major coniferous tree species in the Miyun Reservoir Basin (MRB), along an air pollution gradient in Beijing. Tree rings were collected along a transect, and ring width (basal area increment, BAI) and chemical characteristics were determined and related to long-term climatic and environmental records. The results showed that Pinus tabuliformis showed an overall increase in intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) at all sites, but the relationships between iWUE and BAI differed among the sites. The contribution of atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca) to tree growth was significant at the remote sites (> 90%). The study found that air pollution at these sites might have caused further stomatal closure, as evidenced by the higher δ[13]C levels (0.5 to 1‰ higher) during heavy pollution periods. The analysis of tree ring δ[15]N also revealed the potential of using δ[15]N to fingerprint major nitrogen (N) deposition, as shown in the increasing tree ring δ[15]N, and major nitrogen losses due to denitrification and leaching, as shown in the higher δ[15]N in tree rings during heavy rainfall events. Overall, the gradient analysis indicated the contributions of increasing ca, increasing water deficit and elevated air pollution to tree growth and forest development. The different BAI trajectories suggested that Pinus tabuliformis has the ability to adapt to the harsh environment in the MRB.}, }
@article {pmid36897273, year = {2023}, author = {Mathias, JM and Smith, KR and Lantz, KE and Allen, KT and Wright, MJ and Sabet, A and Anderson-Teixeira, KJ and Thomas, RB}, title = {Differences in leaf gas exchange strategies explain Quercus rubra and Liriodendron tulipifera intrinsic water use efficiency responses to air pollution and climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {3449-3462}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16673}, pmid = {36897273}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {1354689//Directorate for Biological Sciences/ ; //Smithsonian Institution, ForestGEO Grants Program/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Quercus ; *Liriodendron ; Water ; *Air Pollution ; Plant Leaves/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Trees continuously regulate leaf physiology to acquire CO2 while simultaneously avoiding excessive water loss. The balance between these two processes, or water use efficiency (WUE), is fundamentally important to understanding changes in carbon uptake and transpiration from the leaf to the globe under environmental change. While increasing atmospheric CO2 (iCO2) is known to increase tree intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE), less clear are the additional impacts of climate and acidic air pollution and how they vary by tree species. Here, we couple annually resolved long-term records of tree-ring carbon isotope signatures with leaf physiological measurements of Quercus rubra (Quru) and Liriodendron tulipifera (Litu) at four study locations spanning nearly 100 km in the eastern United States to reconstruct historical iWUE, net photosynthesis (Anet), and stomatal conductance to water (gs) since 1940. We first show 16%-25% increases in tree iWUE since the mid-20th century, primarily driven by iCO2 , but also document the individual and interactive effects of nitrogen (NOx) and sulfur (SO2) air pollution overwhelming climate. We find evidence for Quru leaf gas exchange being less tightly regulated than Litu through an analysis of isotope-derived leaf internal CO2 (Ci), particularly in wetter, recent years. Modeled estimates of seasonally integrated Anet and gs revealed a 43%-50% stimulation of Anet was responsible for increasing iWUE in both tree species throughout 79%-86% of the chronologies with reductions in gs attributable to the remaining 14%-21%, building upon a growing body of literature documenting stimulated Anet overwhelming reductions in gs as a primary mechanism of increasing iWUE of trees. Finally, our results underscore the importance of considering air pollution, which remains a major environmental issue in many areas of the world, alongside climate in the interpretation of leaf physiology derived from tree rings.}, }
@article {pmid36895654, year = {2023}, author = {Duan, H and Ming, X and Zhang, XB and Sterner, T and Wang, S}, title = {China's adaptive response to climate change through air-conditioning.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {106178}, pmid = {36895654}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Studies have shown that the soaring demand for air conditioners in recent years is closely related to the worsening global warming; however, little evidence has been provided for China. This study uses weekly data of 343 Chinese cities to investigate how air conditioner sales respond to climate variability. We detected a U-shaped relationship between air-conditioning and temperature. An additional day with average temperature above 30°C increases weekly sales by 16.2%. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the adoption of air-conditioning is different for south and north China. By combining our estimates with shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios, we project China's mid-century air conditioner sales and the resulting electricity demand. Under the fossil-fueled development scenario, air conditioner sales in the Pearl River Delta would rise by 71% (65.7%-87.6%) in summer. On average, the per capita electricity demand for air-conditioning will surge by 28% (23.2%-35.4%) in China by mid-century.}, }
@article {pmid36895343, year = {2023}, author = {Wubneh, MA and Worku, TA and Chekol, BZ}, title = {Climate change impact on water resources availability in the kiltie watershed, Lake Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {e13941}, pmid = {36895343}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change's influence on water resource availability in watersheds must be evaluated to ensure food and water security. Using an ensemble of two global climate models (MIROC and MPI) and one regional climate model (RCA4), the impact of climate change on the availability of water in the Kiltie watershed was evaluated under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the year 2040s and 2070s. The flow was simulated using the HBV hydrological model, which needs fewer data and is typically employed in data-scarce settings. The model calibration and validation result, show RVE (relative volume error) of -1.27% and 6.93%, and NSE of 0.63 and 0.64 respectively. Seasonal Water Supply in the Future Under the RCP4.5 Scenario for the 2040s increased between 1.1 mm and 33.2 mm showing maximum incremental in August and a decrease in a range from 0.23 mm to 6.89 mm with a maximum decrease in September. While in the 2070s, water availability increases between 7.2 mm and 56.9 mm, with the largest increases occurring in October and the smallest reductions occurring in July by 9 mm. Future water availability increases under the RCP8.5 scenario during the 2040s period between 4.1 mm and 38.8 mm, with the highest increase occurring in August, and falls between 9.8 mm and 31.2 mm, with the maximum declines occurring in the spring seasons. Water availability in the 2070s, according to the RCP8.5 scenario, increases between 2.7 mm and 42.4 mm with the highest increments in August, and it decreases between 1.8 mm and 80.3 mm with maximum decreases in June. According to this study, climate change would make it easier to access water during the rainy season, necessitating the construction of water storage facilities so that surplus water can be used for dry farming. A watershed-level integrated water resource management strategy should be created quickly as future water supply will decline during the dry seasons.}, }
@article {pmid36894073, year = {2023}, author = {Worischka, S and Schöll, F and Winkelmann, C and Petzoldt, T}, title = {Twenty-eight years of ecosystem recovery and destabilisation: Impacts of biological invasions and climate change on a temperate river.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {875}, number = {}, pages = {162678}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162678}, pmid = {36894073}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Invertebrates ; Rivers/chemistry ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Biodiversity ; Introduced Species ; }, abstract = {Most river ecosystems are exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors affecting the composition and functionality of benthic communities. Identifying main causes and detecting potentially alarming trends in time depends on the availability of long-term monitoring data sets. Our study aimed to improve the knowledge about community effects of multiple stressors that is needed for effective, sustainable management and conservation. We conducted a causal analysis to detect the dominant stressors and hypothesised that multiple stressors, such as climate change and multiple biological invasions, reduce biodiversity and thus endanger ecosystem stability. Using a data set from 1992 to 2019 for the benthic macroinvertebrate community of a 65-km stretch of the upper Elbe river in Germany, we evaluated the effects of alien species, temperature, discharge, phosphorus, pH and abiotic conditional variables on the taxonomic and functional composition of the benthic community and analysed the temporal behaviour of biodiversity metrics. We observed fundamental taxonomic and functional changes in the community, with a shift from collectors/gatherers to filter feeders and feeding opportunists preferring warm temperatures. A partial dbRDA revealed significant effects of temperature and alien species abundance and richness. The occurrence of distinct phases in the development of community metrics suggests a temporally varying impact of different stressors. Taxonomic and functional richness responded more sensitively than the diversity metrics whereas the functional redundancy metric remained unchanged. Especially the last 10-year phase, however, showed a decline in richness metrics and an unsaturated, linear relationship between taxonomic and functional richness, which rather indicates reduced functional redundancy. We conclude that the varying anthropogenic stressors over three decades, mainly biological invasions and climate change, affected the community severely enough to increase its vulnerability to future stressors. Our study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring data and emphasises a careful use of biodiversity metrics, preferably considering also community composition.}, }
@article {pmid36893542, year = {2023}, author = {Nourani, V and Ghareh Tapeh, AH and Khodkar, K and Huang, JJ}, title = {Assessing long-term climate change impact on spatiotemporal changes of groundwater level using autoregressive-based and ensemble machine learning models.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {336}, number = {}, pages = {117653}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117653}, pmid = {36893542}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Groundwater ; Computer Simulation ; Neural Networks, Computer ; Iran ; }, abstract = {To evaluate the long-term climate change impacts on groundwater fluctuations of the Ardabil plain, Iran, a groundwater level (GWL) modeling was proposed in this study. Accordingly, the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the sixth report of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and future scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5), were used as climate change forcing to the Machine learning (ML) models. The GCM data were first downscaled and projected for the future via Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Based on the results, compared to 2014 (the last year of the base period), the mean annual temperature may increase by 0.8 °C per decade until 2100. On the other hand, the mean precipitation may decrease by about 8% compared to the base period. Then, the centroid wells of clusters were modeled by Feedforward Neural Network (FFNN), examining different input combination sets to simulate both autoregressive and non-autoregressive models. Since each of the ML models can extract different kinds of information from a dataset, after finding the dominant input set via FFNN, GWL time series were modeled via various ML methods. The modeling results indicated that the ensemble of shallow ML models could lead to a 6% more accurate outcome than the individual shallow ML models, and 4% than the deep learning models. Also, the simulation results for future GWLs illustrated that temperature can impact groundwater oscillations directly, whereas precipitation may not have uniform impacts on the GWLs. The uncertainty evolving in the modeling process was quantified and observed to be in acceptable range. Modeling results showed that the main reason for the declining GWL in the Ardabil plain could be primarily linked to the excessive exploitation of the water table, while climate change impact could be also notable.}, }
@article {pmid36893538, year = {2023}, author = {Brilli, L and Martin, R and Argenti, G and Bassignana, M and Bindi, M and Bonet, R and Choler, P and Cremonese, E and Della Vedova, M and Dibari, C and Filippa, G and Galvagno, M and Leolini, L and Moriondo, M and Piccot, A and Stendardi, L and Targetti, S and Bellocchi, G}, title = {Uncertainties in the adaptation of alpine pastures to climate change based on remote sensing products and modelling.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {336}, number = {}, pages = {117575}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117575}, pmid = {36893538}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Grassland ; *Remote Sensing Technology ; Climate Change ; Biomass ; Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {Over the last century, the management of pastoral systems has undergone major changes to meet the livelihood needs of alpine communities. Faced with the changes induced by recent global warming, the ecological status of many pastoral systems has seriously deteriorated in the western alpine region. We assessed changes in pasture dynamics by integrating information from remote-sensing products and two process-based models, i.e. the grassland-specific, biogeochemical growth model PaSim and the generic crop-growth model DayCent. Meteorological observations and satellite-derived Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trajectories of three pasture macro-types (high, medium and low productivity classes) in two study areas - Parc National des Écrins (PNE) in France and Parco Nazionale Gran Paradiso (PNGP) in Italy - were used as a basis for the model calibration work. The performance of the models was satisfactory in reproducing pasture production dynamics (R[2] = 0.52 to 0.83). Projected changes in alpine pastures due to climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies indicate that: i) the length of the growing season is expected to increase between 15 and 40 days, resulting in changes in the timing and amount of biomass production, ii) summer water stress could limit pasture productivity; iii) earlier onset of grazing could enhance pasture productivity; iv) higher livestock densities could increase the rate of biomass regrowth, but major uncertainties in modelling processes need to be considered; and v) the carbon sequestration potential of pastures could decrease under limited water availability and warming.}, }
@article {pmid36893164, year = {2023}, author = {Villa, V and Bermeo, N and Zazzo, A and Lefèvre, C and Béarez, P and Correa, D and Dufour, E and Manin, A and Dausse, L and Gutiérrez, B and Vásquez, S and Christol, A and Bahain, JJ and Goepfert, N}, title = {Settlement dynamics, subsistence economies and climate change during the late Holocene at Nunura Bay (Sechura Desert, Peru): A multiproxy approach.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {e0281545}, pmid = {36893164}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; Peru ; *Climate Change ; *Bays ; Pacific Ocean ; Ecuador ; }, abstract = {Long considered on the margins, far from the major cultural traditions, the Sechura Desert is situated at the crossroads between the cultures of southern Ecuador and those of the northern Peruvian coast and preserves a large number of varied archaeological sites. Despite this evidence, little is known about the societies that inhabited this region during the Holocene. Exposed to natural hazards, including El Niño events, and to major climatic changes, they were able to adapt and exploit the scarce resources that this extreme environment offered them. Because of this rich history, we have been conducting archaeological research in this region since 2012 in order to clarify the dynamics of human occupation and their links with climate oscillations and environmental changes. This paper present the results of a multidisciplinary study of Huaca Grande, a mound located on Nunura Bay, 300 m from the Pacific Ocean. The nature of the human occupations at Huaca Grande was varied, and several adjustments occurred over time. The subsistence economy was based mainly on local marine resources and a continual use of terrestrial vegetal resources. However, a major change occurred in the more recent occupations, with the apparition of non-local resources (maize and cotton) indicating that Huaca Grande was connected to trade networks. The results show two main phases of occupation separated by a long abandonment (mid-5th century CE to mid-7th century CE and mid-13th century to mid-15th century CE). The occupation of the site appears to have been influenced by changes in the local climate and by extreme El Niño events. Our results highlight the great adaptability of these human groups over the span of a millennium and their capacity to react to the climatic changes and hazards that characterise this region.}, }
@article {pmid36890141, year = {2023}, author = {Liang, H and You, F}, title = {Reshoring silicon photovoltaics manufacturing contributes to decarbonization and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1274}, pmid = {36890141}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {CBET-1643244//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; CBET-1643244//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {The globalized supply chain for crystalline silicon (c-Si) photovoltaic (PV) panels is increasingly fragile, as the now-mundane freight crisis and other geopolitical risks threaten to postpone major PV projects. Here, we study and report the results of climate change implications of reshoring solar panel manufacturing as a robust and resilient strategy to reduce reliance on foreign PV panel supplies. We project that if the U.S. could fully bring c-Si PV panel manufacturing back home by 2035, the estimated greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption would be 30% and 13% lower, respectively, than having relied on global imports in 2020, as solar power emerges as a major renewable energy source. If the reshored manufacturing target is achieved by 2050, the climate change and energy impacts would be further reduced by 33% and 17%, compared to the 2020 level. The reshored manufacturing demonstrates significant progress in domestic competitiveness and toward decarbonization goals, and the positive reductions in climate change impacts align with the climate target.}, }
@article {pmid36889865, year = {2023}, author = {Henritze, E and Goldman, S and Simon, S and Brown, AD}, title = {Moral injury as an inclusive mental health framework for addressing climate change distress and promoting justice-oriented care.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {e238-e241}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00335-7}, pmid = {36889865}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Humans ; *Mental Health ; Morals ; *Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic ; Climate Change ; Social Justice ; }, abstract = {The unequal exposure to clinical conditions and other psychological responses associated with climate change and ecological degradation is due to resource access, geographical location, and other systemic factors. Ecological distress is further determined by values, beliefs, identity presentations, and group affiliations. Current models, such as climate anxiety, have made helpful distinctions between impairment and cognitive-emotional processes but obscure underlying ethical dilemmas and fundamental inequalities, restricting our understanding of accountability and the distress emerging from intergroup dynamics. In this Viewpoint, we argue that the concept of moral injury is essential because it foregrounds social position and ethics. It identifies spectrums of both agency and responsibility (guilt, shame, and anger) and powerlessness (depression, grief, and betrayal). The moral injury framework thus goes beyond an acontextual definition of wellbeing to identify how differential access to political power influences the diversity of psychological responses and conditions related to climate change and ecological degradation. A moral injury lens supports clinicians and policy makers to transform despair and stasis into care and action by delineating both the psychological and structural elements that determine the possibilities (and limits) of individual and community agency.}, }
@article {pmid36889409, year = {2023}, author = {Zhao, G and Tian, S and Wang, Y and Liang, R and Li, K}, title = {Quantitative assessment methodology framework of the impact of global climate change on the aquatic habitat of warm-water fish species in rivers.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {875}, number = {}, pages = {162686}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162686}, pmid = {36889409}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Rivers ; Ecosystem ; Water ; Climate Change ; *Carps ; Hydrology ; }, abstract = {Global climate change (GCC), with global warming as the main characteristic, has become a global issue widely concerned by people. GCC impacts the hydrological regime at the watershed scale and affects the hydrodynamic force and the habitat conditions of freshwater ecosystems at the river scale. The impact of GCC on water resources and the water cycle is a research hotspot. However, there are few studies on water environment ecology related to hydrology and the influence of changes in discharge and water temperature on warm-water fish habitats. This study proposes a quantitative assessment methodology framework for predicting and analyzing the impact of GCC on the warm-water fish habitat. This system integrates GCC, downscaling, hydrological, hydrodynamic, water temperature and habitat models and was applied to the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River (MLHR), where there are four major Chinese carps resource reduction problems. The results showed that the calibration and validation of the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the hydrological, hydrodynamic, and water temperature models were carried out using the observed meteorological factors, discharge, water level, flow velocity and water temperature data. The change rule of the simulated value was in good agreement with the observed value, and the models and methods used in the quantitative assessment methodology framework were applicable and accurate. The rise of water temperature caused by GCC will ease the problem of low-temperature water in the MLHR, and the weighted usable area (WUA) for spawning of the four major Chinese carps will appear in advance. Meanwhile, the increase in future annual discharge will play a positive role in WUA. In general, the rise in confluence discharge and water temperature caused by GCC will increase WUA, which is beneficial to the spawning ground of four major Chinese carps.}, }
@article {pmid36889403, year = {2023}, author = {Sharma, S and Sharma, V and Chatterjee, S}, title = {Contribution of plastic and microplastic to global climate change and their conjoining impacts on the environment - A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {875}, number = {}, pages = {162627}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162627}, pmid = {36889403}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Plastics/analysis ; Microplastics ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Temperature ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Plastics are fossil fuel-derived products. The emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) during different processes involved in the lifecycle of plastic-related products are a significant threat to the environment as it contributes to global temperature rise. By 2050, a high volume of plastic production will be responsible for up to 13 % of our planet's total carbon budget. The global emissions of GHG and their persistence in the environment have depleted Earth's residual carbon resources and have generated an alarming feedback loop. Each year at least 8 million tonnes of discarded plastics are entering our oceans, creating concerns regarding plastic toxicity on marine biota as they end up in the food chain and ultimately affect human health. The unsuccessful management of plastic waste and its presence on the riverbanks, coastlines, and landscapes leads to the emission of a higher percentage of GHG in the atmosphere. The persistence of microplastics is also a significant threat to the fragile and extreme ecosystem containing diverse life forms with low genetic variation, making them vulnerable to climatic change. In this review, we have categorically discussed the contribution of plastic and plastic waste to global climate change covering the current plastic production and future trends, the types of plastics and plastic materials used globally, plastic lifecycle and GHG emission, and how microplastics become a major threat to ocean carbon sequestration and marine health. The conjoining impact of plastic pollution and climate change on the environment and human health has also been discussed in detail. In the end, we have also discussed some strategies to reduce the climate impact of plastics.}, }
@article {pmid36889019, year = {2023}, author = {Lamy, K and Tran, A and Portafaix, T and Leroux, MD and Baldet, T}, title = {Impact of regional climate change on the mosquito vector Aedes albopictus in a tropical island environment: La Réunion.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {875}, number = {}, pages = {162484}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162484}, pmid = {36889019}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Mosquito Vectors ; *Aedes ; Reunion/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The recent expansion of Aedes albopictus across continents in both tropical and temperate regions and the exponential growth of dengue cases over the past 50 years represent a significant risk to human health. Although climate change is not the only factor responsible for the increase and spread of dengue cases worldwide, it might increase the risk of disease transmission at global and regional scale. Here we show that regional and local variations in climate can induce differential impacts on the abundance of Ae. albopictus. We use the instructive example of Réunion Island with its varied climatic and environmental conditions and benefiting from the availability of meteorological, climatic, entomological and epidemiological data. Temperature and precipitation data based on regional climate model simulations (3 km × 3 km) are used as inputs to a mosquito population model for three different climate emission scenarios. Our objective is to study the impact of climate change on the life cycle dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the 2070-2100 time horizon. Our results show the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on Ae. albopictus abundance as a function of elevation and geographical subregion. At low-elevations areas, decreasing precipitation is expected to have a negative impact on environmental carrying capacity and, consequently, on Ae. albopictus abundance. At mid- and high-elevations, decreasing precipitation is expected to be counterbalanced by a significant warming, leading to faster development rates at all life stages, and consequently increasing the abundance of this important dengue vector in 2070-2100.}, }
@article {pmid36884328, year = {2023}, author = {Morello-Frosch, R and Obasogie, OK}, title = {The Climate Gap and the Color Line - Racial Health Inequities and Climate Change.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {388}, number = {10}, pages = {943-949}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMsb2213250}, pmid = {36884328}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ethnic and Racial Minorities ; *Health Inequities ; Racial Groups ; *Social Determinants of Health ; White People ; }, }
@article {pmid36883779, year = {2023}, author = {Ferreira, IJM and Campanharo, WA and Fonseca, MG and Escada, MIS and Nascimento, MT and Villela, DM and Brancalion, P and Magnago, LFS and Anderson, LO and Nagy, L and Aragão, LEOC}, title = {Potential aboveground biomass increase in Brazilian Atlantic Forest fragments with climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {11}, pages = {3098-3113}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16670}, pmid = {36883779}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {314416/2020-0//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 314473/2020-3//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 441561/2016-0//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 001//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; 2016-50481-3//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; 2020/15230-5//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Biomass ; Brazil ; *Trees ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Carbon ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Fragmented tropical forest landscapes preserve much of the remaining biodiversity and carbon stocks. Climate change is expected to intensify droughts and increase fire hazard and fire intensities, thereby causing habitat deterioration, and losses of biodiversity and carbon stock losses. Understanding the trajectories that these landscapes may follow under increased climate pressure is imperative for establishing strategies for conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we used a quantitative predictive modelling approach to project the spatial distribution of the aboveground biomass density (AGB) by the end of the 21st century across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF) domain. To develop the models, we used the maximum entropy method with projected climate data to 2100, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 from the fifth Assessment Report. Our AGB models had a satisfactory performance (area under the curve > 0.75 and p value < .05). The models projected a significant increase of 8.5% in the total carbon stock. Overall, the projections indicated that 76.9% of the AF domain would have suitable climatic conditions for increasing biomass by 2100 considering the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the absence of deforestation. Of the existing forest fragments, 34.7% are projected to increase their AGB, while 2.6% are projected to have their AGB reduced by 2100. The regions likely to lose most AGB-up to 40% compared to the baseline-are found between latitudes 13° and 20° south. Overall, although climate change effects on AGB vary latitudinally for the 2071-2100 period under the RCP 4.5 scenario, our model indicates that AGB stocks can potentially increase across a large fraction of the AF. The patterns found here are recommended to be taken into consideration during the planning of restoration efforts, as part of climate change mitigation strategies in the AF and elsewhere in Brazil.}, }
@article {pmid36880894, year = {2023}, author = {Belgrano, A and Lindmark, M}, title = {Biodiversity transformations in the global ocean: A climate change and conservation management perspective.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {3235-3236}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16665}, pmid = {36880894}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Biodiversity ; Oceans and Seas ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Understanding the biological diversity of different communities and evaluating the risks to biological sustainability in a time of rapid environmental change is a key challenge for providing an adapting management approach for biodiversity transformations in the ocean linked to human well-being. (Photo credit: Andrea Belgrano).}, }
@article {pmid36876093, year = {2023}, author = {Kim, HH and Laufkötter, C and Lovato, T and Doney, SC and Ducklow, HW}, title = {Projected 21st-century changes in marine heterotrophic bacteria under climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1049579}, pmid = {36876093}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Marine heterotrophic Bacteria (or referred to as bacteria) play an important role in the ocean carbon cycle by utilizing, respiring, and remineralizing organic matter exported from the surface to deep ocean. Here, we investigate the responses of bacteria to climate change using a three-dimensional coupled ocean biogeochemical model with explicit bacterial dynamics as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. First, we assess the credibility of the century-scale projections (2015-2099) of bacterial carbon stock and rates in the upper 100 m layer using skill scores and compilations of the measurements for the contemporary period (1988-2011). Second, we demonstrate that across different climate scenarios, the simulated bacterial biomass trends (2076-2099) are sensitive to the regional trends in temperature and organic carbon stocks. Bacterial carbon biomass declines by 5-10% globally, while it increases by 3-5% in the Southern Ocean where semi-labile dissolved organic carbon (DOC) stocks are relatively low and particle-attached bacteria dominate. While a full analysis of drivers underpinning the simulated changes in all bacterial stock and rates is not possible due to data constraints, we investigate the mechanisms of the changes in DOC uptake rates of free-living bacteria using the first-order Taylor decomposition. The results demonstrate that the increase in semi-labile DOC stocks drives the increase in DOC uptake rates in the Southern Ocean, while the increase in temperature drives the increase in DOC uptake rates in the northern high and low latitudes. Our study provides a systematic analysis of bacteria at global scale and a critical step toward a better understanding of how bacteria affect the functioning of the biological carbon pump and partitioning of organic carbon pools between surface and deep layers.}, }
@article {pmid36875405, year = {2023}, author = {Korfanty, G and Heifetz, E and Xu, J}, title = {Assessing thermal adaptation of a global sample of Aspergillus fumigatus: Implications for climate change effects.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1059238}, pmid = {36875405}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; *Aspergillus fumigatus ; *Climate Change ; Canada ; China ; Costa Rica ; }, abstract = {Aspergillus fumigatus is a common environmental mold and a major cause of opportunistic infections in humans. It's distributed among many ecological niches across the globe. A major virulence factor of A. fumigatus is its ability to grow at high temperature. However, at present, little is known about variations among strains in their growth at different temperatures and how their geographic origins may impact such variations. In this study, we analyzed 89 strains from 12 countries (Cameroon, Canada, China, Costa Rica, France, India, Iceland, Ireland, New Zealand, Peru, Saudi Arabia, and USA) representing diverse geographic locations and temperature environments. Each strain was grown at four temperatures and genotyped at nine microsatellite loci. Our analyses revealed a range of growth profiles, with significant variations among strains within individual geographic populations in their growths across the temperatures. No statistically significant association was observed between strain genotypes and their thermal growth profiles. Similarly geographic separation contributed little to differences in thermal adaptations among strains and populations. The combined analyses among genotypes and growth rates at different temperatures in the global sample suggest that most natural populations of A. fumigatus are capable of rapid adaptation to temperature changes. We discuss the implications of our results to the evolution and epidemiology of A. fumigatus under increasing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36874965, year = {2023}, author = {Gonçalves, GSR and Cerqueira, PV and Silva, DP and Gomes, LB and Leão, CF and de Andrade, AFA and Santos, MPD}, title = {Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e14882}, pmid = {36874965}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Birds ; Ecosystem ; Fever ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme.<br><br>METHODS: We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species.<br><br>RESULTS: We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.}, }
@article {pmid36873423, year = {2023}, author = {Limaye, VS and Magal, A and Joshi, J and Maji, S and Dutta, P and Rajput, P and Pingle, S and Madan, P and Mukerjee, P and Bano, S and Beig, G and Mavalankar, D and Jaiswal, A and Knowlton, K}, title = {Air quality and health co-benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation actions by 2030: an interdisciplinary modeling study in Ahmedabad, India.}, journal = {Environmental research, health : ERH}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {021003}, pmid = {36873423}, issn = {2752-5309}, abstract = {Climate change-driven temperature increases worsen air quality in places where coal combustion powers electricity for air conditioning. Climate solutions that substitute clean and renewable energy in place of polluting coal and promote adaptation to warming through reflective cool roofs can reduce cooling energy demand in buildings, lower power sector carbon emissions, and improve air quality and health. We investigate the air quality and health co-benefits of climate solutions in Ahmedabad, India-a city where air pollution levels exceed national health-based standards-through an interdisciplinary modeling approach. Using a 2018 baseline, we quantify changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and all-cause mortality in 2030 from increasing renewable energy use (mitigation) and expanding Ahmedabad's cool roofs heat resilience program (adaptation). We apply local demographic and health data and compare a 2030 mitigation and adaptation (M&amp;A) scenario to a 2030 business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (without climate change response actions), each relative to 2018 pollution levels. We estimate that the 2030 BAU scenario results in an increase of PM2.5 air pollution of 4.13 µg m[-3] from 2018 compared to a 0.11 µg m[-3] decline from 2018 under the 2030 M&amp;A scenario. Reduced PM2.5 air pollution under 2030 M&amp;A results in 1216-1414 fewer premature all-cause deaths annually compared to 2030 BAU. Achievement of National Clean Air Programme, National Ambient Air Quality Standards, or World Health Organization annual PM2.5 Air Quality Guideline targets in 2030 results in up to 6510, 9047, or 17 369 fewer annual deaths, respectively, relative to 2030 BAU. This comprehensive modeling method is adaptable to estimate local air quality and health co-benefits in other settings by integrating climate, energy, cooling, land cover, air pollution, and health data. Our findings demonstrate that city-level climate change response policies can achieve substantial air quality and health co-benefits. Such work can inform public discourse on the near-term health benefits of mitigation and adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid36872918, year = {2022}, author = {Kandikuppa, S and Gray, C}, title = {Climate Change and Household Debt in Rural India.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {173}, number = {3-4}, pages = {}, pmid = {36872918}, issn = {0165-0009}, support = {P2C HD050924/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change and indebtedness have been repeatedly highlighted as major causes of distress for rural households in India. However, despite the close connection between climate conditions and rural livelihoods, there has been little attempt to systematically examine the association between the two. To address this gap, we combine national-level longitudinal data from IHDS, MERRA-2, and the Indian Ministry of Agriculture to study the impact of climate anomalies on household indebtedness across rural India. Using a longitudinal approach that accounts for potential confounders at household, village, and district levels, we find pervasive effects of season-specific, five-year climate anomalies on multiple dimensions of household debt, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas. Most notably, temperature anomalies in the winter cropping season in arid and semi-arid areas are associated with increasing household indebtedness. We further find that climate change interacts with existing socioeconomic differences-caste and landholding in particular-to deepen both the size and the depth of indebtedness for rural households.}, }
@article {pmid36872915, year = {2023}, author = {Cubelo, F}, title = {Internationally educated nurses' role in climate change: sustainability and mitigation practices.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {40}, number = {4}, pages = {585-589}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13185}, pmid = {36872915}, issn = {1525-1446}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Nurse's Role ; *Education, Nursing ; *Nurses ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There are three related factors affecting climate change and its relationship to the migration of IENs: 1) corporate social responsibility; 2) the code of ethics for nurses; and 3) nursing education. As the highest producer of carbon dioxide emissions, the Global North especially the Nordic Region must also consider its climate change responsibilities when recruiting nurses from the Global South.<br><br>AIM: The aim of this article is to discuss the factors affecting climate change and its relationship to the migration of IENs, as well as possible solutions to mitigate its impact.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change is impacted indirectly by the movement of internationally educated nurses (IENs). The Nordic countries need to consider checking climate change measures in the sustainability plans for recruitment companies when approving permits allowing the recruitment of nurses.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Policymakers and decision-makers need to consider climate change and GHG emissions factors when collaborating with recruitment agencies to recruit IENs from the Global South. International nurse recruitment policies must be ethical, economically sustainable, and planet-centered.}, }
@article {pmid36872563, year = {2023}, author = {Baecher, JA and Johnson, SA and Roznik, EA and Scheffers, BR}, title = {Experimental evaluation of how biological invasions and climate change interact to alter the vertical assembly of an amphibian community.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {92}, number = {4}, pages = {875-888}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13899}, pmid = {36872563}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; Introduced Species ; Anura ; }, abstract = {While biotic-abiotic interactions are increasingly documented in nature, a process-based understanding of how such interactions influence community assembly is lacking in the ecological literature. Perhaps the most emblematic and pervasive example of such interactions is the synergistic threat to biodiversity posed by climate change and invasive species. Invasive species often out-compete or prey on native species. Despite this long-standing and widespread issue, little is known about how abiotic conditions, such as climate change, will influence the frequency and severity of negative biotic interactions that threaten the persistence of native fauna. Treefrogs are a globally diverse group of amphibians that climb to complete life-cycle processes, such as foraging and reproduction, as well as to evade predators and competitors, resulting in frog communities that are vertically partitioned. Furthermore, treefrogs adjust their vertical position to maintain optimal body temperature and hydration in response to environmental change. Here, utilizing this model group, we designed a novel experiment to determine how extrinsic abiotic and biotic factors (changes to water availability and an introduced predator, respectively) interact with intrinsic biological traits, such as individual physiology and behaviour, to influence treefrogs' vertical niche. Our study found that treefrogs adjusted their vertical niche through displacement behaviours in accordance with abiotic resources. However, biotic interactions resulted in native treefrogs distancing themselves from abiotic resources to avoid the non-native species. Importantly, under altered abiotic conditions, both native species avoided the non-native species 33 %- 70 % more than they avoided their native counterpart. Additionally, exposure to the non-native species resulted in native species altering their tree climbing behaviours by 56 % - 78 % and becoming more vertically dynamic to avoid the non-native antagonist. Our experiment determined that vertical niche selection and community interactions were most accurately represented by a biotic-abiotic interaction model, rather than a model that considers these factors to operate in an isolated (singular) or even additive manner. Our study provides evidence that native species may be resilient to interacting disturbances via physiological adaptations to local climate and plasticity in space-use behaviours that mediate the impact of the introduced predator.}, }
@article {pmid36871708, year = {2023}, author = {Sapkota, Y and Bargu, S and White, JR}, title = {Temporally-displaced Mississippi River spring flood pulse shows muted aquatic ecosystem response in estuarine waters: A climate change warning for coastal foodwebs.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {874}, number = {}, pages = {162623}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162623}, pmid = {36871708}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Mississippi River water levels typically rise in the early spring after snow melt in the extensive watershed. However, in 2016, warm air temperatures coupled with high precipitation led to a historically early river flood pulse, resulting in the opening of a flood release valve (Bonnet Carré Spillway) in early January to protect the city of New Orleans, Louisiana. The goal of this research was to determine the ecosystem response of this wintertime nutrient flood pulse on the receiving estuarine system and compare it to historical opening responses, which are generally several months later. Nutrients, TSS, and Chl a were measured along a 30 km transect in the Lake Pontchartrain estuary, before, during, and after the river diversion event. In the past, NOx concentrations were quickly reduced to below detection in the estuary in <4 weeks post-event accompanied by a moderate phytoplankton bloom. However, due to seasonal limitations (cold water temperatures and light limitation) during the 2016 event, NOx remained elevated for >2 months post-closure and Chl a values were low, indicating limited assimilation of nutrients into phytoplankton biomass. Consequently, much of the bioavailable nitrogen was denitrified by sediments and dispersed to the coastal ocean over time, limiting the transfer of nutrients into the food web by means of a spring phytoplankton bloom. An increasing warming trend in temperate and polar river watersheds is leading to earlier spring flood pulses, altering the timing of coastal nutrient transport, decoupled from conditions supporting primary production, which could significantly affect coastal food webs.}, }
@article {pmid36871610, year = {2023}, author = {Heffernan, ME and Menker, CG and Bendelow, A and Smith, TL and Davis, MM}, title = {Parental Concerns About Climate Change in a Major United States City.}, journal = {Academic pediatrics}, volume = {23}, number = {7}, pages = {1337-1342}, doi = {10.1016/j.acap.2023.02.015}, pmid = {36871610}, issn = {1876-2867}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To examine climate change concerns among parents in Chicago, a large and diverse urban setting that experiences climate change-related weather events and rising water levels which have the potential to affect more than 1 million children living in the city.<br><br>METHODS: We collected data through the Voices of Child Health in Chicago Parent Panel Survey from May to July 2021. Parents indicated their personal level of worry about climate change, concern about the impact of climate change on themselves and their families, and how well they understood the issue of climate change. Parents also provided demographic information.<br><br>RESULTS: Parents reported high levels of concern about climate change in general and specifically about the impact on their families. Logistic regression indicated that parents who were Latine/Hispanic (vs&#xa0;White) and those who felt they understood climate change well (vs&#xa0;less well) had higher odds of reporting high levels of concern. Parents with some college (vs&#xa0;high school education or below) had lower odds of high concern.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Parents indicated high levels of concern about climate change and its potential impact on their families. These results can help inform pediatricians' discussions with families about child health in the context of a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid36871205, year = {2023}, author = {Heenan, M and Rychetnik, L and Howse, E and Beggs, PJ and Weeramanthri, TS and Armstrong, F and Zhang, Y}, title = {Australia's political engagement on health and climate change: the MJA-Lancet Countdown indicator and implications for the future.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {218}, number = {5}, pages = {196-202}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.51857}, pmid = {36871205}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; Global Health ; Australia ; Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid36870720, year = {2023}, author = {Mondal, N}, title = {The resurgence of dengue epidemic and climate change in India.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {401}, number = {10378}, pages = {727-728}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00226-X}, pmid = {36870720}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Epidemics ; India ; *Dengue ; }, }
@article {pmid36869730, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, X and Comes, HP and Qiu, Y}, title = {Did Late Quaternary climate change trigger shifts in mating system in temperate plant species of the Sino-Japanese Floristic Region? A commentary on 'Genetic and demographic signatures accompanying the evolution of the selfing syndrome in Daphne kiusiana, an evergreen shrub'.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {131}, number = {5}, pages = {iii-v}, pmid = {36869730}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {*Daphne/genetics ; Climate Change ; Reproduction ; Plants/genetics ; Demography ; }, abstract = {This article comments on: Eun-Kyeong Han, Ichiro Tamaki, Sang-Hun Oh, Jong-Soo Park, Won-Bum Cho, Dong-Pil Jin, Bo-Yun Kim, Sungyu Yang, Dong Chan Son, Hyeok-Jae Choi, Amarsanaa Gantsetseg, Yuji Isagi, and Jung-Hyun Lee. Genetic and demographic signatures accompanying the evolution of the selfing syndrome in Daphne kiusiana, an evergreen shrub, Annals of Botany, Volume 131, Issue 5, 11 April 2023, Pages 751–767, https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcac142}, }
@article {pmid36869138, year = {2023}, author = {Mohammadi, S and Rydgren, K and Bakkestuen, V and Gillespie, MAK}, title = {Impacts of recent climate change on crop yield can depend on local conditions in climatically diverse regions of Norway.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {3633}, pmid = {36869138}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Norway ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Hordeum ; *Solanum tuberosum ; }, abstract = {Globally, climate change greatly impacts the production of major crops, and there have been many attempts to model future yields under warming scenarios in recent years. However, projections of future yields may not be generalisable to all crop growing regions, particularly those with diverse topography and bioclimates. In this study, we demonstrate this by evaluating the links between changes in temperature and precipitation and changes in wheat, barley, and potato yields at the county-level during 1980-2019 in Norway, a Nordic country with a range of climates across a relatively small spatial scale. The results show that the impacts of climate variables on yield vary widely by county, and that for some crops, the strength and direction of the link depends on underlying local bioclimate. In addition, our analysis demonstrates the need for some counties to focus on weather changes during specific crucial months corresponding with certain crop growth stages. Furthermore, due to the local climatic conditions and varying projected climate changes, different production opportunities are likely to occur in each county.}, }
@article {pmid36868279, year = {2023}, author = {Uniyal, B and Kosatica, E and Koellner, T}, title = {Spatial and temporal variability of climate change impacts on ecosystem services in small agricultural catchments using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {875}, number = {}, pages = {162520}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162520}, pmid = {36868279}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and anthropogenic activities alter the ecosystem which affects the ecosystem services (ES) associated with it. Therefore, the objective in this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on different regulation and provisioning ecosystem services. For this, we propose a modelling framework to simulate the impact of climate change on streamflow, nitrate loads, erosion, and crop yield in terms of ES indices for two agricultural catchments (Schwesnitz and Schwabach) located in Bavaria, Germany. The agro-hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to simulate the considered ES in past (1990-2019), near future (2030-2059) and far future (2070-2099) climatic conditions. Three different bias-corrected (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) climate projections from five different climate models retrieved from the Bavarian State Office for Environment (∼5 km) are used in this research to simulate the impact of climate change on ES. The developed SWAT models were calibrated for the major crops (1995 to 2018) present in the respective watersheds as well as for daily streamflow (1995 to 2008), which gave promising results with good PBIAS and Kling-Gupta Efficiency. The impact of climate change on erosion regulation, food and feed provisioning, and water quantity and water quality regulation were quantified in terms of indices. When using the ensemble of the five climate models, no significant impact on ES was seen due to climate change. Furthermore, the impact of climate change on different ES services from the two catchment is different. The findings of this study will be valuable for devising suitable management practices for sustainable water management at the catchment level to cope with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36867183, year = {2023}, author = {Chambers, JE}, title = {From Mourning and Melancholia to Neurobiology in an Era of Global Warming, Pandemic Disease, and Social Chasms: Grief as a Requisite for Change.}, journal = {Psychodynamic psychiatry}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {45-62}, doi = {10.1521/pdps.2023.51.1.45}, pmid = {36867183}, issn = {2162-2604}, mesh = {Humans ; Global Warming ; Neurobiology ; Pandemics ; *COVID-19 ; Grief ; *Depressive Disorder ; }, abstract = {We find ourselves in a unique time in history with the confluence of a pandemic, global warming, and social chasms felt throughout the world. In this article, it is suggested that the grieving process is necessary for progress. The article addresses grief from a psychodynamic lens and progresses through the neurobiological changes that occur in the grieving process. The article discusses grief as both a result of and a necessary response to COVID-19, global warming, and social unrest. It is argued that grief is a vital process in order to fully change as a society and move forward. The role of psychiatry, and specifically psychodynamic psychiatry, is integral in paving the way to this new understanding and a new future.}, }
@article {pmid36865473, year = {2023}, author = {Gno-Solim Ela, N and Olago, D and Akinyi, AD and Tonnang, HEZ}, title = {Assessment of the effects of climate change on the occurrence of tomato invasive insect pests in Uganda.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e13702}, pmid = {36865473}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The shift in the geographical spread of invasive pests in Africa has rarely been linked directly to climate change. However, it is predicted that environmental changes play a significant role in spreading and expanding pests. The occurrence of new tomato invasive insect pests has been increasing in Uganda during the past century. Assessing the impact of temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and windspeed on the occurrence of invasive tomato insect pests, gives a better understanding of managing and limiting the bio-invasion process sustainably. We used the Mann Kendall trend Test to establish trends in climate variables from 1981 to 2020 and to document the trend in the occurrence of new invasive pests. The relationship between climate variables and pests occurrence is analyzed using Pearson's correlation and the Generalized Linear Model (GLM-quasi-Poisson) in R-software. The results showed that temperature and windspeed have significantly increased in both Kampala and Namutumba by 0.049 °C, 0.005 m [s-1]and by 0.037 °C, 0.003 m [s-1] per year respectively while in Mbale there was no change in wind speed pattern and a non-significant decrease in temperature. There was an overall rainfall increase in Kampala (p = 0.029) by 0.241 mm, Mbale (p = 0.0011) by 9.804 mm, and Namutumba (p = 0.394) by 0.025 mm. On the other hand, humidity has decreased both in Kampala (p = 0.001) by 13.3% and in Namutumba (p = 0.035) by 13.2% while there was a no significant change in Mbale. The results of GLM showed that each variable, taken individually, had a direct effect on the pests' occurrence in all three districts. However, with all these climate variables taken together, the effect on the pests' occurrence varied with each of the three districts; Kampala, Mbale, and Namutumba. This study demonstrated that pest occurrence is different from one agroecology to another. Our findings suggest that climate change is a driver that favors bio-invasion of tomato invasive insect pests occurrence in Uganda. It calls for awareness to policymakers and stakeholders to consider climate-smart pest management practices and policies to deal with bio-invasion.}, }
@article {pmid36860184, year = {2024}, author = {Xin, Y and Yang, Z and Du, Y and Cui, R and Xi, Y and Liu, X}, title = {Vulnerability of protected areas to future climate change, land use modification, and biological invasions in China.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {e2831}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2831}, pmid = {36860184}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {32171657//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32270549//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; NFS2101//The Grant of High Quality Economic and Social Development in South Xinjiang/ ; 20204001018//The National Undergraduate' Science and Technology Innovation Training Program/ ; 2021xjkk0600//The Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program/ ; 2022xjkk0800//The Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program/ ; Y201920//Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Biodiversity ; Ecosystem ; Introduced Species ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change, land use modifications, and alien species invasions are major threats to global biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) are regarded as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation, however, few studies have quantified the vulnerability of PAs to these global change factors together. Here, we overlay the risks of climate change, land use change, and alien vertebrate establishment within boundaries of a total of 1020 PAs with different administrative levels in China to quantify their vulnerabilities. Our results show that 56.6% of PAs will face at least one stress factor, and 21 PAs are threatened under the highest risk with three stressors simultaneously. PAs designed for forest conservation in Southwest and South China are most sensitive to the three global change factors. In addition, wildlife and wetland PAs are predicted to mainly experience climate change and high land use anthropogenetic modifications, and many wildlife PAs can also provide suitable habitats for alien vertebrate establishment. Our study highlights the urgent need for proactive conservation and management planning of Chinese PAs by considering different global change factors together.}, }
@article {pmid36858223, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, H and Zhong, T and Chen, Y and Zhang, J}, title = {How to simulate future scenarios of urban stormwater management? A novel framework coupling climate change, urbanization, and green stormwater infrastructure development.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {874}, number = {}, pages = {162399}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162399}, pmid = {36858223}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change, urbanization, and green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) planning policies lead to uncertainties in future urban sustainability. Coupling multiple influencing factors such as climate change, urbanization, and GSI development, this study proposes a novel framework for simulating future scenarios of urban stormwater. Subsequently, the changes in annual surface runoff and runoff pollutants in Shanghai's new and old urban areas were compared and analyzed based on 35 typical future and seven baseline scenarios. The following results were obtained: 1) The runoff control rate of the new urban area was significantly higher than that of the old urban area before GSI construction. After GSI construction, both areas could control stormwater runoff and pollutants, while the decline in efficiency in GSI facilities enormously impacted the old area. 2) Surface runoff in the new urban area was mainly affected by urbanization, while climate change was a major factor in the old urban area; runoff pollutants in new and old urban areas were mainly affected by urbanization, and the change in pollutants in new areas was more pronounced. 3) GSI facilities were unlikely to guarantee the quantity and quality of water resources, especially in scenarios where the efficiency of GSI facilities decreases. In old urban areas, the more extreme climate change and urbanization were, the more significant the effect of improving stormwater management facilities. Our findings showed that future studies on stormwater management should specifically consider the different characteristics of new and old urban regions, pay attention to the maintenance and management of GSI facilities, and build adaptive strategies to cope with climate change, urbanization, and GSI facility destruction.}, }
@article {pmid36857389, year = {2023}, author = {Ramadani, L and Khanal, S and Boeckmann, M}, title = {Climate change and health in school-based education: A scoping review protocol.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {e0282431}, pmid = {36857389}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Educational Status ; *Schools ; Health Education ; Curriculum ; Review Literature as Topic ; }, abstract = {Taking into account the adverse impacts of climate change on human health, the importance of increasing knowledge and gaining essential skills is necessary to mitigate and adapt to its impacts and protect human health. Researchers and experts are urging for more research in the climate-health nexus, as well as calling for efforts that establish climate and health educational goals. They encourage the development of agreed upon, articulated science-based curricula and resources addressing climate-health issues. This review aims to map out the current state of integration of climate change education in school-based education across the world and identify the human health topics included. Furthermore, it aims to explore the extents to which levels of prevention and health co-benefits of climate mitigation and adaptation are covered within the framework of school-based climate change education. Five electronic databases will be searched for peer reviewed articles in English, from year 2000-to May 2022. The findings from the study will be useful to school curricula developers looking to expand climate change education. This review will also highlight potential research gaps in education on climate change-related health in schools. The scoping review was preregistered with the Open Science Framework [registration DOI: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/8U5GK].}, }
@article {pmid36856927, year = {2023}, author = {Biswas, SS}, title = {Potential Use of Chat GPT in Global Warming.}, journal = {Annals of biomedical engineering}, volume = {51}, number = {6}, pages = {1126-1127}, pmid = {36856927}, issn = {1573-9686}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Artificial Intelligence ; Climate Change ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major global challenge that requires the integration of many different scientific disciplines, including atmospheric science, oceanography, and ecology. The complexity and scale of the problem require sophisticated tools and techniques to understand, model, and project future climate conditions. Artificial intelligence and natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, have the potential to play a critical role in advancing our understanding of climate change and improving the accuracy of climate projections. ChatGPT can be used in a variety of ways to aid climate research, including in model parameterization, data analysis and interpretation, scenario generation, and model evaluation. This technology provides researchers and policy-makers with a powerful tool for generating and analyzing different climate scenarios based on a wide range of data inputs, and for improving the accuracy of climate projections. The author acknowledges asking chatGPT questions regarding its uses for Climate Change Research. Some of the uses that it states are possible now and some are potentials for the future. The author has analyzed and edited the replies of chat GPT.}, }
@article {pmid36854780, year = {2023}, author = {Souza, PGC and Aidoo, OF and Farnezi, PKB and Heve, WK and Júnior, PAS and Picanço, MC and Ninsin, KD and Ablormeti, FK and Shah, MA and Siddiqui, SA and Silva, RS}, title = {Author Correction: Tamarixia radiate global distribution to current and future climate using the climate change experiment (CLIMEX) model.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {3397}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-023-30319-2}, pmid = {36854780}, issn = {2045-2322}, }
@article {pmid36853937, year = {2023}, author = {Bretter, C and Schulz, F}, title = {Why focusing on "climate change denial" is counterproductive.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {10}, pages = {e2217716120}, pmid = {36853937}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid36853851, year = {2023}, author = {Liebig, MA and Bergh, EL and Archer, DW}, title = {Variation in methodology obscures clarity of cropland global warming potential estimates.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {549-557}, doi = {10.1002/jeq2.20467}, pmid = {36853851}, issn = {1537-2537}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Soil ; Crops, Agricultural ; }, abstract = {Global warming potential (GWP) estimates from agroecosystems are valuable for understanding management effects on climate regulation services. However, GWP estimates are complex, including attributes with high spatiotemporal variability. Published GWP estimates from cropland were compiled and methodological attributes known to influence GWP were extracted. Results revealed considerable variation in approaches to estimate GWP. Among carbon balance methods, respiration methods were used most frequently (33%), followed by soil carbon stock change over time (30%). Twenty-six percent of studies did not account for carbon change in GWP estimates. Duration of gas flux measurements ranged from 0.5 to 60 months, with weekly and sub-weekly sampling most common (34% and 33%, respectively). Carbon dioxide equivalent conversion factors generally aligned with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommendations through 2014 but diverged thereafter. This review suggests the need for increased transparency in how GWP estimates are derived and communicated. Presentation of key metadata alongside GWP estimates is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid36853687, year = {2023}, author = {Lu, K and Ban, J and Wang, Q and Li, T}, title = {Protocol for estimating exposure to compound heat wave and ozone pollution under future climate change.}, journal = {STAR protocols}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {102090}, pmid = {36853687}, issn = {2666-1667}, mesh = {*Ozone ; Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Here we describe the procedure for estimating exposure to the compound heatwave and ozone pollution under future climate scenarios. We first apply the daily-level temperature and ozone concentration across the world and perform bias correction by comparing the distribution of the modeled temperature and ozone concentration to the distribution of historical observation. Then we identify the heatwaves, ozone pollution events, and compound events. Finally, we combine the future exposure and population to identify the high-risk regions and populations. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Ban et al. (2022).[1].}, }
@article {pmid36852379, year = {2023}, author = {Kariuki, T and Omumbo, J and Ciugu, K and Marincola, E}, title = {The interconnected global emergencies of climate change, food security and health: a call to action by the Science for Africa Foundation.}, journal = {Open research Africa}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {1}, pmid = {36852379}, issn = {2752-6925}, abstract = {The evidence is clear that climate change is the greatest challenge facing mankind today. Africa is disproportionately burdened by multiple direct and cascading impacts of the climate crisis. Global investments for climate change adaptation, however, have not prioritized Africa adequately and there is a significant knowledge gap in understanding the context and science of climate change and sustainable solutions for the continent's adaptation. Solutions for adaptation and resilience are made complex by an urgent need for accelerated economic growth, rapid population expansion and urbanization, habitat and biodiversity loss and dwindling financing. There are also challenges in matching policies, wavering commitments and actions with good science that focuses on sustainable lives, livelihoods and ecosystem preservation. The solutions must come from where the impacts are felt. The Science for Africa Foundation supports African researchers and institutions to lead in the science that addresses African priority development areas and has set climate change as a strategic priority. This call to action, by the SFA Foundation, outlines key areas that its strategy addresses through programs that support African scientific excellence, leadership and the best of Africa's research to understand the science of climate change and its impacts; collate and assess evidence for policy; grow high level technical capacity on the continent; and create innovative priority actions for Africa.}, }
@article {pmid36852169, year = {2023}, author = {Azeem, S and Cheema, HA and Shahid, A and Al-Mamun, F and Rackimuthu, S and Ur Rehman, ME and Essar, MY and Lee, KY}, title = {Devastating floods in South Asia: The inequitable repercussions of climate change and an urgent appeal for action.}, journal = {Public health in practice (Oxford, England)}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {100365}, pmid = {36852169}, issn = {2666-5352}, }
@article {pmid36848574, year = {2023}, author = {Derville, S and Torres, LG and Newsome, SD and Somes, CJ and Valenzuela, LO and Vander Zanden, HB and Baker, CS and Bérubé, M and Busquets-Vass, G and Carlyon, K and Childerhouse, SJ and Constantine, R and Dunshea, G and Flores, PAC and Goldsworthy, SD and Graham, B and Groch, K and Gröcke, DR and Harcourt, R and Hindell, MA and Hulva, P and Jackson, JA and Kennedy, AS and Lundquist, D and Mackay, AI and Neveceralova, P and Oliveira, L and Ott, PH and Palsbøll, PJ and Patenaude, NJ and Rowntree, V and Sironi, M and Vermeuelen, E and Watson, M and Zerbini, AN and Carroll, EL}, title = {Long-term stability in the circumpolar foraging range of a Southern Ocean predator between the eras of whaling and rapid climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {10}, pages = {e2214035120}, pmid = {36848574}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Antarctic Regions ; Anthropogenic Effects ; Indian Ocean ; }, abstract = {Assessing environmental changes in Southern Ocean ecosystems is difficult due to its remoteness and data sparsity. Monitoring marine predators that respond rapidly to environmental variation may enable us to track anthropogenic effects on ecosystems. Yet, many long-term datasets of marine predators are incomplete because they are spatially constrained and/or track ecosystems already modified by industrial fishing and whaling in the latter half of the 20th century. Here, we assess the contemporary offshore distribution of a wide-ranging marine predator, the southern right whale (SRW, Eubalaena australis), that forages on copepods and krill from ~30°S to the Antarctic ice edge (>60°S). We analyzed carbon and nitrogen isotope values of 1,002 skin samples from six genetically distinct SRW populations using a customized assignment approach that accounts for temporal and spatial variation in the Southern Ocean phytoplankton isoscape. Over the past three decades, SRWs increased their use of mid-latitude foraging grounds in the south Atlantic and southwest (SW) Indian oceans in the late austral summer and autumn and slightly increased their use of high-latitude (>60°S) foraging grounds in the SW Pacific, coincident with observed changes in prey distribution and abundance on a circumpolar scale. Comparing foraging assignments with whaling records since the 18th century showed remarkable stability in use of mid-latitude foraging areas. We attribute this consistency across four centuries to the physical stability of ocean fronts and resulting productivity in mid-latitude ecosystems of the Southern Ocean compared with polar regions that may be more influenced by recent climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36847944, year = {2023}, author = {Urhan, B and Hoştut, S and Güdekli, &#x130;A and Aydoğan, H}, title = {Climate change and marketing: a bibliometric analysis of research from 1992 to 2022.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {34}, pages = {81550-81572}, pmid = {36847944}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Pandemics ; *COVID-19 ; Bibliometrics ; Marketing ; }, abstract = {Climate change with adverse impacts on the environment, economy, and society requires marketing to change current attitudes and behaviors towards sustainable production and consumption, and thus climate change is interrelated to marketing. However, no body of literature has comprehensively investigated the connections and relationships between climate change and marketing. This study examined such connections and relationships from a bibliometric approach using Web of Science and Scopus databases from 1992 to 2022. The search strategy utilized topic and title/abstract/keyword search. The search query retrieved 1723 documents. VOSviewer and Biblioshiny were utilized to analyze data on authors, keywords, institutions, countries, sources, citations, and co-citations. The findings showed an upward trend in the annual number of publications with the top three most productive countries being the USA, the UK, and Australia and the most productive institutions in the USA, New Zealand, and the UK. The top three author keywords were climate change, sustainability, and marketing. The Sustainability journal ranked first in terms of productivity while Energy Policy in terms of citations. International collaborations were mostly between developed countries also known as Global North Countries, and collaborations between these countries and developing and developed countries should be encouraged. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of documents increased, and research themes altered. Research on energy, innovation, insect farming, and carbon management is a top priority. The results proved that most studies were conducted outside the field of marketing.}, }
@article {pmid36847615, year = {2023}, author = {Qin, SY and Zuo, ZY and Guo, C and Du, XY and Liu, SY and Yu, XQ and Xiang, XG and Rong, J and Liu, B and Liu, ZF and Ma, PF and Li, DZ}, title = {Phylogenomic insights into the origin and evolutionary history of evergreen broadleaved forests in East Asia under Cenozoic climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {11}, pages = {2850-2868}, doi = {10.1111/mec.16904}, pmid = {36847615}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Phylogeny ; *Climate Change ; *Biological Evolution ; Forests ; Asia, Eastern ; Trees ; }, abstract = {The evergreen versus deciduous leaf habit is an important functional trait for adaptation of forest trees and has been hypothesized to be related to the evolutionary processes of the component species under paleoclimatic change, and potentially reflected in the dynamic history of evergreen broadleaved forests (EBLFs) in East Asia. However, knowledge about the shift of evergreen versus deciduous leaf with the impact of paleoclimatic change using genomic data remains rare. Here, we focus on the Litsea complex (Lauraceae), a key lineage with dominant species of EBLFs, to gain insights into how evergreen versus deciduous trait shifted, providing insights into the origin and historical dynamics of EBLFs in East Asia under Cenozoic climate change. We reconstructed a robust phylogeny of the Litsea complex using genome-wide single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) with eight clades resolved. Fossil-calibrated analyses, diversification rate shifts, ancestral habit, ecological niche modelling and climate niche reconstruction were employed to estimate its origin and diversification pattern. Taking into account studies on other plant lineages dominating EBLFs of East Asia, it was revealed that the prototype of EBLFs in East Asia probably emerged in the Early Eocene (55-50 million years ago [Ma]), facilitated by the greenhouse warming. As a response to the cooling and drying climate in the Middle to Late Eocene (48-38 Ma), deciduous habits were evolved in the dominant lineages of the EBLFs in East Asia. Up to the Early Miocene (23 Ma), the prevailing of East Asian monsoon increased the extreme seasonal precipitation and accelerated the emergence of evergreen habits of the dominant lineages, and ultimately shaped the vegetation resembling that of today.}, }
@article {pmid36847605, year = {2023}, author = {Lee, AS and Aguilera, J and Efobi, JA and Jung, YS and Seastedt, H and Shah, MM and Yang, E and Konvinse, K and Utz, PJ and Sampath, V and Nadeau, KC}, title = {Climate change and public health: The effects of global warming on the risk of allergies and autoimmune diseases: The effects of global warming on the risk of allergies and autoimmune diseases.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {e56821}, pmid = {36847605}, issn = {1469-3178}, support = {R38 HL143615/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; //SU | School of Medicine, Stanford University (SOM)/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Public Health ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/etiology ; *Autoimmune Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {Global climate change and extreme weather events are associated with epigenetic modifications in immune cells, leading to the possible increased risk and prevalence of allergies and autoimmune diseases.}, }
@article {pmid36846558, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Oxford open immunology}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {iqac008}, pmid = {36846558}, issn = {2633-6960}, }
@article {pmid36844976, year = {2023}, author = {Fahad, S and Nguyen-Anh, T and To-The, N and Nguyen-Thi-Lan, H and Nassani, AA and Haffar, M}, title = {A study evaluating the extrinsic and intrinsic determinants of farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation strategies: A novel approach for improving farmers' health.}, journal = {One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {100501}, pmid = {36844976}, issn = {2352-7714}, abstract = {Small-scale farmers living in mountainous areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Although governments have implemented various support programs and policies to support a range of farmers to tackle climatic changes, there are still several difficulties in the implementation of these adaptation strategies. Using the survey data of 758 small-scale farmers this paper employs Multivariate Probit (MVP) and Poisson regression models to measure the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting farmers adaptation decision in rural Vietnam. The results reveal that the extrinsic factors such as annual rainfall variations and farm size motivate farmers' adoption of their adaptations. The findings also reveal that the political connection has a significantly positive impact on the respondents' selection, while government interference such as extension training programs has a negative association with the farmers adaptation choice. Public extension programs should be simultaneously redesigned to support farmers in mitigating the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36844079, year = {2023}, author = {Adão, F and Campos, JC and Santos, JA and Malheiro, AC and Fraga, H}, title = {Relocation of bioclimatic suitability of Portuguese grapevine varieties under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {974020}, pmid = {36844079}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change has been driving warming trends and changes in precipitation patterns and regimes throughout Europe. Future projections indicate a continuation of these trends in the next decades. This situation is challenging the sustainability of viniculture and, thus, significant efforts towards adaptation should be then carried out by local winegrowers.<br><br>METHOD: Ecological Niche Models were built, using the ensemble modelling approach, to estimate the bioclimatic suitability of four main wine-producing European countries, namely France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, in the recent past (1989-2005), for the cultivation of twelve Portuguese grape varieties. The models were then used to project the bioclimatic suitability to two future periods (2021- 2050 and 2051-2080) to better understand the potential shifts related to climate change (modeled after Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). The models were obtained with the modeling platform BIOMOD2, using four bioclimatic indices, namely the "Huglin Index", the "Cool Night index", the "Growing Season Precipitation index", and the "Temperature Range during Ripening index" as predictor variables, as well as the current locations of the chosen grape varieties in Portugal.<br><br>RESULTS: All models performed with high statistical accuracy (AUC > 0.9) and were able to discriminate several suitable bioclimatic areas for the different grape varieties, in and around where they are currently located but also in other parts of the study area. The distribution of the bioclimatic suitability changed, however, when looking at future projections. For both climatic scenarios, projected bioclimatic suitability suffered a considerable shift to the north of Spain and France. In some cases, bioclimatic suitability also moved towards areas of higher elevation. Portugal and Italy barely retained any of the initially projected varietal areas. These shifts were mainly due to the overall rise in thermal accumulation and lower accumulated precipitation in the southern regions projected for the future.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Ensemble models of Ecological Niche Models were shown to be valid tools for winegrowers who want to adapt to a changing climate. The long-term sustainability of viniculture in southern Europe will most likely have to go through a process of mitigation of the effects of increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid36843496, year = {2023}, author = {Jiang, ZW and Ma, L and Mi, CR and Tao, SA and Guo, F and Du, WG}, title = {Distinct responses and range shifts of lizard populations across an elevational gradient under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {2669-2680}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16656}, pmid = {36843496}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {LHZX-2020-01//Joint Grant from Chinese Academy of Sciences-People's Government of Qinghai Province on Sanjiangyuan National Park/ ; 2019QZKK0501//The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)/ ; XDB31000000//The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Lizards/physiology ; Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change has profoundly affected global biodiversity, but its impacts on populations across elevations remain understudied. Using mechanistic niche models incorporating species traits, we predicted ecophysiological responses (activity times, oxygen consumption and evaporative water loss) for lizard populations at high-elevation (<3600 m asl) and extra-high-elevation (≥3600 m asl) under recent (1970-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates. Compared with their high-elevation counterparts, lizards from extra-high-elevation are predicted to experience a greater increase in activity time and oxygen consumption. By integrating these ecophysiological responses into hybrid species distribution models (HSDMs), we were able to make the following predictions under two warming scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). By 2081-2100, we predict that lizards at both high- and extra-high-elevation will shift upslope; lizards at extra-high-elevation will gain more and lose less habitat than will their high-elevation congeners. We therefore advocate the conservation of high-elevation species in the context of climate change, especially for those populations living close to their lower elevational range limits. In addition, by comparing the results from HSDMs and traditional species distribution models, we highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation and local adaptation in physiological traits along elevational gradients when forecasting species' future distributions under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36841782, year = {2023}, author = {Greibe Andersen, J and Kallestrup, P and Karekezi, C and Yonga, G and Kraef, C}, title = {Climate change and health risks in Mukuru informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya - knowledge, attitudes and practices among residents.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {393}, pmid = {36841782}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Humans ; Male ; Female ; Kenya ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Residents of informal settlements in Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) are vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. Little is known about the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of inhabitants of informal settlements in SSA regarding climate change and its health impacts. The aim of this study was to investigate how inhabitants of an informal settlement in SSA experience climate change and its health impacts and assess related knowledge, attitudes and practices. The study was conducted in Mukuru informal settlement in Nairobi City County, Kenya.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in September 2021 using a structured, semi-closed KAP questionnaire. Inclusion criteria were&#x2009;&#x2265;&#x2009;18&#x2009;years of age and living in one of the three main sections in Mukuru: Kwa Njenga, Kwa Reuben or Viwandani. By spinning a pen at the geographic centre of each section, a random direction was selected. Then, in every second household one individual was interviewed, creating a representative mix of ages and genders of the local community. To assess participant characteristics associated with climate change knowledge multivariable logistic regression was used. Thematic content analysis was performed for qualitative responses.<br><br>RESULTS: Out of 402 study participants, 76.4% (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;307) had heard of climate change before the interview, 90.8% (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;365) reported that climate change was affecting their community, and 92.6% (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;372) were concerned with the health-related impact of climate change. Having lived in Mukuru for more than 10&#x2009;years and living in a dwelling close to the riverside were factors significantly associated with having heard of climate change before (aOR 3.1, 95%CI 1.7 - 5.8 and aOR 2.6, 95%CI 1.1 - 6.1, respectively) and experiencing a climate change related impact on the community (aOR 10.7, 95%CI 4.0 - 28.4 and aOR 7.7; 95%CI 1.7 - 34.0, respectively). Chronic respiratory conditions, vector-borne diseases, including infectious diarrhoea, malnutrition and cardiovascular diseases were identified by respondents as climate related health risks.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Most respondents were knowledgeable about climate change and were experiencing its (health-related) impact on their community. This study provides insights which may prove useful for policy makers, intervention planners and researchers to work on locally adapted mitigation and adaption strategies.}, }
@article {pmid36841730, year = {2023}, author = {Li, Y and Hou, Z and Zhang, L and Song, C and Piao, S and Lin, J and Peng, S and Fang, K and Yang, J and Qu, Y and Wang, Y and Li, J and Li, R and Yao, X}, title = {Rapid expansion of wetlands on the Central Tibetan Plateau by global warming and El Niño.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {68}, number = {5}, pages = {485-488}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2023.02.021}, pmid = {36841730}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid36841729, year = {2023}, author = {Jia, B and Wang, L and Xie, Z}, title = {Increasing lake water storage on the Inner Tibetan Plateau under climate change.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {68}, number = {5}, pages = {489-493}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2023.02.018}, pmid = {36841729}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid36840227, year = {2023}, author = {Marteau, A and Fourmaux, M and Mevy, JP}, title = {The Role of Gorse (Ulex parviflorus Pourr. Scrubs) in a Mediterranean Shrubland Undergoing Climate Change: Approach by Hyperspectral Measurements.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {36840227}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {The goal of this study was to observe the neighbor effect of Gorse, a plant of the Fabaceae family, on three typical species of Mediterranean shrubland: kermes oak, white Cistus and rosemary. For this purpose, a hyperspectral analysis and the application of vegetation indices (VIs) were carried out. We provide the spectral signature of Gorse, which differs mainly from that of its companion species in the band between 700 and 1350 nm. This supposed Gorse effect was tested in natural conditions and in conditions of forced drought to simulate the effects of the climate change predicted for the Mediterranean Basin. Field spectrometry demonstrated the existence of such interactions between the four species. In control stands, the presence of Gorse significantly modifies the spectral responses of kermes, white Cistus and rosemary, mainly in the near-infrared region (700-1350 nm). Both tri- and tetra-specific plant assemblages also exhibited spectral changes, suggesting an indirect effect of Gorse. Under drought conditions, one-way ANOVA followed by Fisher's LSD test led us to identify the features involved in plants' coexistence with Gorse. The Cistus albidus reflectance spectrum was clearly increased in the presence of Gorse in rain-exclusion conditions. The application of several VIs allowed us to extract new information on the variation of spectral signatures. Unexpectedly, nitrogen supply by Gorse was not shown, except for Cistus, as shown by the VI NDVI (N) analysis. However, this study proved that Gorse can modify the behavior of its companion species in controls, but also in drought conditions, by increasing their photosynthesis activity (NIRvP) and water content (ratio R975/R900). Gorse therefore appears as a key species in the ecosystem of the Mediterranean shrubland, but its high vulnerability to drought leaves a vacant ecological niche in plant communities. While the spectral reflectance increases linearly with the specific richness in the lack of any disturbance, by contrast, climate aridification imposes a double reciprocal profile. This clearly means that multispecific plant communities cope better with climate change. Nevertheless, knowledge of the underlying mechanisms requires further structural, chemical, and biochemical investigation.}, }
@article {pmid36840215, year = {2023}, author = {Pulvento, C and Bazile, D}, title = {Worldwide Evaluations of Quinoa-Biodiversity and Food Security under Climate Change Pressures: Advances and Perspectives.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {36840215}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd [...].}, }
@article {pmid36840065, year = {2023}, author = {Shen, L and Deng, H and Zhang, G and Ma, A and Mo, X}, title = {Effect of Climate Change on the Potentially Suitable Distribution Pattern of Castanopsis hystrix Miq. in China.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {36840065}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2016YFD0600500//the National Key Research and Development Programs of China/ ; 2018KJCX028//Guangdong Forestry Science and Technology and 488 Innovation Project/ ; }, abstract = {Climate warming poses a great threat to ecosystems worldwide, which significantly affects the geographical distribution and suitable growth area of species. Taking Castanopsis hystrix Miq. as the research object, the potentially suitable cultivation regions under present and future climatic emission scenarios in China were predicted based on the MaxEnt model with 360 effective individual distributions and eight environmental variables. The min temperature of coldest month (bio6), precipitation of driest month (bio14), and precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) are three leading factors affecting the geographical distribution area of C. hystrix Miq. The suitable cultivation regions of C. hystrix Miq. range from 18°-34° N, 89°-122° E in central and southern China and cover an area of 261.95 × 10[4] km[2]. The spatial pattern of C. hystrix Miq. will migrate to the southern region of low latitudes with a decreasing suitable area when in ssp1-2.6, and to the southwestern region of low latitudes or expand to the northeast region at high latitudes in ssp5-8.5, with an increasing suitable area; no significant change on the spatial pattern in ssp2-2.4. For ssp1-2.6 or ssp2-4.5 climate scenarios, the southern region of high latitudes will be appropriate for introducing and cultivating C. hystrix Miq., and the cultivation area will increase. For ssp5-8.5, its cultivation will increase and expand to the northeast of high-latitude areas slightly.}, }
@article {pmid36835704, year = {2023}, author = {Zhao, M and Duan, Q and Shen, X and Zhang, S}, title = {Climate Change Influences the Population Density and Suitable Area of Hippotiscus dorsalis (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in China.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {36835704}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2021YZ13//Huzhou Natural Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Hippotiscus dorsalis is the main pest of Phyllostachys edulis in South China. The relationship between climate change and outbreak of H. dorsalis, and the current and future distribution of H. dorsalis are unknown. This study aimed to confirm the effect of climate on population density and the attacked bamboo rate of H. dorsalis, using field survey data from 2005 to 2013 in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, and to reveal the potential distribution of H. dorsalis under current and future climate conditions using the MaxEnt model. The damage investigation and distribution forecast revealed the following: (1) The mean monthly temperature and maximum temperatures were main factors affecting the population density and the attacked bamboo rate in April in the Anji county of Zhejiang Province; they are all significantly and positively correlated. (2) High suitable area will significantly expand in Anhui and Jiangxi Provinces under the future climate circumstances, and the total suitable area will present a decrease because of the precipitation restriction. The significant expansion of high suitable area in the Anhui and Jiangxi Provinces under future climate circumstances means that the affected provinces will face even greater challenges. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the early forecasting and monitoring of pest outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid36834330, year = {2023}, author = {Nezlek, JB and Cypryańska, M}, title = {Prosociality and Personality: Perceived Efficacy of Behaviors Mediates Relationships between Personality and Self-Reported Climate Change Mitigation Behavior.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {36834330}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; Self Report ; *Climate Change ; *Personality ; Personality Disorders ; Neuroticism ; }, abstract = {The included studies examined the relationship between climate change mitigation behavior (CCB) and personality. In Study 1, 1089 US collegians completed a measure of the Big Five and indicated how often they engaged in five CCBs. Engaging in each CCB was regressed on the Big Five. These analyses found openness was positively related to all five CCBs, neuroticism was positively related to four of five CCBs, and extraversion was positively related to three CCBs. In Study 2, 1688 US collegians completed the same measures as in Study 1 with two additional CCBs. They also indicated how efficacious they thought each CCB was. Each CCB was regressed on the Big Five. These results largely replicated those of Study 1 and also found that conscientiousness was positively related to five of seven CCBs. Mediational analyses found that all relationships between personality factors and CCB were mediated by the perceived efficacy of the CCB. The present results suggest that efforts to increase climate change mitigation behavior need to take into account the perceived efficacy of such behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid36834118, year = {2023}, author = {Khine, MM and Langkulsen, U}, title = {The Implications of Climate Change on Health among Vulnerable Populations in South Africa: A Systematic Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {36834118}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; South Africa ; *Climate Change ; *Vulnerable Populations ; Poverty ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses numerous threats to human life, including physical and mental health, the environment, housing, food security, and economic growth. People who already experience multidimensional poverty with the disparity in social, political, economic, historical, and environmental contexts are more vulnerable to these impacts. The study aims to identify the role of climate change in increasing multidimensional inequalities among vulnerable populations and analyze the strengths and limitations of South Africa's National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. A systematic review was applied, and literature from Google, Google Scholar, and PubMed, as well as relevant gray literature from 2014-2022 were reviewed. Out of 854 identified sources, 24 were included in the review. Climate change has exacerbated multidimensional inequalities among vulnerable populations in South Africa. Though the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy has paid attention to health issues and the needs of vulnerable groups, the adaptation measures appear to focus less on mental and occupational health. Climate change may play a significant role in increasing multidimensional inequalities and exacerbating health consequences among vulnerable populations. For an inclusive and sustainable reduction in inequalities and vulnerabilities to the impact of climate change, community-based health and social services should be enhanced among vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid36834034, year = {2023}, author = {Lin, Z and Yang, Z and Ye, X}, title = {Immersive Experience and Climate Change Monitoring in Digital Landscapes: Evidence from Somatosensory Sense and Comfort.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {36834034}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Extreme Heat ; Sunlight ; San Francisco ; *Extreme Weather ; Trees ; }, abstract = {In this study, the virtual engine software (Unity 2019, Unity Software Inc., San Francisco, California, the U.S.) was used to generate a digital landscape model, forming a virtual immersive environment. Through field investigation and emotional preference experiments, the ancient tree ecological area and the sunlight-exposed area were respectively monitored, and the somatosensory comfort evaluation model was established. The subjects showed the highest degree of interest in the ancient tree ecological area after landscape roaming experience, and the mean variance in SC fluctuation was 13.23% in experiments. The subjects were in a low arousal state and had a significant degree of interest in the digital landscape roaming scene, and there was a significant correlation between positive emotion, somatosensory comfort and the Rating of Perceived Exertion index; moreover, the somatosensory comfort of the ancient tree ecological area was higher than that of the sunlight-exposed area. Meanwhile, it was found that somatosensory comfort level can effectively distinguish the comfort level between the ancient tree ecological area and the sunlight-exposed area, which provides an important basis for monitoring extreme heat. This study concludes that, in terms of the goal of harmonious coexistence between human and nature, the evaluation model of somatosensory comfort can contribute to reducing people's adverse views on extreme weather conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36833902, year = {2023}, author = {Booth, A and Jager, A and Faulkner, SD and Winchester, CC and Shaw, SE}, title = {Pharmaceutical Company Targets and Strategies to Address Climate Change: Content Analysis of Public Reports from 20 Pharmaceutical Companies.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {36833902}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Drug Industry ; Pharmaceutical Preparations ; Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {The pharmaceutical industry produces a large proportion of health system greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, contributing to climate change. This urgently needs to be addressed. We aimed to examine pharmaceutical company climate change targets, GHG emissions, and strategies to reduce them. We performed content analysis of the 20 largest pharmaceutical companies' publicly available 2020/2021 reports, focusing on extracting information on their reported climate change targets, GHG emissions (and whether companies had demonstrated any reduction in emissions over their reporting period), and strategies being implemented to reduce company emissions and meet their targets. Nineteen companies have committed to reducing GHG emissions, ten to carbon neutrality and eight to net zero emissions between 2025 and 2050. Companies showed largely favorable reductions in scope 1 (in-house) and scope 2 (purchased energy), with variable results in scope 3 (supply chain) emissions. Strategies to reduce emissions included optimizing manufacturing and distribution, and responsible sourcing of energy, water, and raw materials. Pharmaceutical companies are setting climate change targets and reporting reduced emissions via a range of strategies. This varies, with scope to track actions and accountability to targets, improve consistency of reporting, especially of scope 3 emissions, and collaborate on novel solutions. There is need for further mixed methods research on progress with achieving reported climate change targets, as well as implementation of strategies to reduce emissions within the pharmaceutical industry.}, }
@article {pmid36833780, year = {2023}, author = {Innocenti, M and Santarelli, G and Lombardi, GS and Ciabini, L and Zjalic, D and Di Russo, M and Cadeddu, C}, title = {How Can Climate Change Anxiety Induce Both Pro-Environmental Behaviours and Eco-Paralysis? The Mediating Role of General Self-Efficacy.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {36833780}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Self Efficacy ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Anxiety ; Adaptation, Psychological ; }, abstract = {While it has been shown that climate change anxiety (emotional distress response to climate change) can enhance pro-environmental behaviours (PEBs) in some subjects, in others it can induce eco-paralysis, thus leading individuals to avoid any form of engagement in actions against climate change. This study aims to clarify which factors influence the relationship between climate change anxiety and the disposition to PEBs, focusing on the role of self-efficacy as a mediating factor. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 394 healthy subjects living in Italy who completed the Pro-Environmental Behaviours Scale (PEBS), the General Self-Efficacy scale (GSE), and the Climate Change Anxiety Scale (CCAS). As a result, the mediation model showed a positive direct effect of the cognitive impairment subscale of CCAS on PEBS and an indirect negative effect of the cognitive impairment subscale of CCAS on PEBS mediated by GSE. These findings show that climate change anxiety has simultaneously two different effects on individuals: it directly encourages PEBs, and indirectly may have detrimental effects on PEBs such as eco-paralysis. Consequently, therapeutic approaches to treat climate change anxiety should not be aimed at rationalising irrational thoughts but rather at helping patients develop coping strategies such as PEBs which, in turn, foster self-efficacy.}, }
@article {pmid36832796, year = {2023}, author = {Galanakis, CM}, title = {The "Vertigo" of the Food Sector within the Triangle of Climate Change, the Post-Pandemic World, and the Russian-Ukrainian War.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {36832796}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {Over the last few years, the world has been facing dramatic changes due to a condensed period of multiple crises, including climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russian-Ukrainian war. Although different, these consecutive crises share common characteristics (e.g., systemic shocks and non-stationary nature) and impacts (e.g., disruption of markets and supply chains), questioning food safety, security, and sustainability. The current article analyses the effects of the noted crises in the food sector before proposing target mitigation measures to address the different challenges. The goal is to transform the food systems to increase their resilience and sustainability. This goal can only be achieved if all relevant actors within the supply chain (e.g., governments, companies, distributors, farmers, etc.) play their role by designing and implementing target interventions and policies. In addition, the transformation of the food sector should be proactive concerning food safety, circular (valorizing several bioresources under the principles of climate neutral economy and blue bioeconomy), digital (based on Industry 4.0 applications), and inclusive (ensuring that all citizens are actively engaged). Food production modernization (e.g., by implementing emerging technologies) and developing shorter and more domestic supply chains are also critical to achieving food resilience and security.}, }
@article {pmid36829503, year = {2023}, author = {Liao, J and Wu, Z and Wang, H and Xiao, S and Mo, P and Cui, X}, title = {Projected Effects of Climate Change on Species Range of Pantala flavescens, a Wandering Glider Dragonfly.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {36829503}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Dragonflies are sensitive to climate change due to their special habitat in aquatic and terrestrial environments, especially Pantala flavescens, which have extraordinary migratory abilities in response to climate change on spatio-temporal scales. At present, there are major gaps in the documentation of insects and the effects of climatic changes on the habitat and species it supports. In this study, we model the global distribution of a wandering glider dragonfly, P. flavescens, and detected the important environmental factors shaping its range, as well as habitat shifts under historical and future warming scenarios. The results showed a global map of species ranges of P. flavescens currently, including southern North America, most of South America, south-central Africa, most of Europe, South, East and Southeast Asia, and northern Oceania, in total, ca. 6581.667 × 10[4] km[2]. BIO5 (the max temperature of warmest month) and BIO13 (the precipitation of wettest month) greatly explained its species ranges. The historic refugia were identified around the Great Lakes in the north-central United States. Future warming will increase the total area of suitable habitat and shift the type of suitable habitat compared to the current distribution. The habitat suitability of P. flavescens decreased with elevation, global warming forced it to expand to higher elevations, and the habitat suitability of P. flavescens around the equator increased with global warming. Overall, our study provides a global dynamic pattern of suitable habitats for P. flavescens from the perspective of climate change, and provides a useful reference for biodiversity research and biological conservation.}, }
@article {pmid36828391, year = {2023}, author = {Wieczynski, DJ and Yoshimura, KM and Denison, ER and Geisen, S and DeBruyn, JM and Shaw, AJ and Weston, DJ and Pelletier, DA and Wilhelm, SW and Gibert, JP}, title = {Viral infections likely mediate microbial controls on ecosystem responses to global warming.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsec/fiad016}, pmid = {36828391}, issn = {1574-6941}, mesh = {Humans ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Climate Change ; *Viruses ; Carbon ; *Virus Diseases ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting how energy and matter flow through ecosystems, thereby altering global carbon and nutrient cycles. Microorganisms play a fundamental role in carbon and nutrient cycling and are thus an integral link between ecosystems and climate. Here, we highlight a major black box hindering our ability to anticipate ecosystem climate responses: viral infections within complex microbial food webs. We show how understanding and predicting ecosystem responses to warming could be challenging-if not impossible-without accounting for the direct and indirect effects of viral infections on different microbes (bacteria, archaea, fungi, protists) that together perform diverse ecosystem functions. Importantly, understanding how rising temperatures associated with climate change influence viruses and virus-host dynamics is crucial to this task, yet is severely understudied. In this perspective, we (i) synthesize existing knowledge about virus-microbe-temperature interactions and (ii) identify important gaps to guide future investigations regarding how climate change might alter microbial food web effects on ecosystem functioning. To provide real-world context, we consider how these processes may operate in peatlands-globally significant carbon sinks that are threatened by climate change. We stress that understanding how warming affects biogeochemical cycles in any ecosystem hinges on disentangling complex interactions and temperature responses within microbial food webs.}, }
@article {pmid36825785, year = {2023}, author = {Slater, M and Bartlett, S}, title = {Climate change: What healthcare professionals can do.}, journal = {The journal of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, pages = {7-8}, doi = {10.1177/14782715231158878}, pmid = {36825785}, issn = {2042-8189}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Personnel ; Delivery of Health Care ; }, }
@article {pmid36825635, year = {2023}, author = {Rollins, AM and Wheeler, M and Frazier, T}, title = {A Marshall Plan for the 21st century: Addressing climate change in the Asia-Pacific through diplomacy, development, and defense.}, journal = {Journal of emergency management (Weston, Mass.)}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {103-122}, doi = {10.5055/jem.0684}, pmid = {36825635}, issn = {1543-5865}, mesh = {United States ; Humans ; *Diplomacy ; Climate Change ; Asia ; Organizations ; }, abstract = {The inevitable climate challenges facing the Asia-Pacific territory require a massive whole-of--government approach comparable to the Marshall Plan of 1948. While many political leaders have called for such a plan, no policy currently exists for this region or purpose. With nearly eight trillion dollars in trade revenue passing through crucially strategic straits daily, seven of the 10 largest militaries in the world (five of which are nuclear capable) operating throughout this territory, and a forecast for nearly exponential population growth, the geopolitical provenance of the United States (US), ties inextricably to this portion of the globe. A document analysis assessing existing diplomatic, developmental, and defensive policies concludes that a modern-day Marshall Plan for the 21st century Asia-Pacific is achievable by realigning lines of effort within current frameworks. As long as the US continues to deny climate change, other nation-state actors within the area will rise to fill the void. The US must commit to the funding, development, and proliferation of clean and sustainable energy solutions, which evolve past current fossil-fuel reliant technologies and, most importantly, be open-source in description and shared with other large polluters throughout the world. Finally, the nations of the Asian-Pacific realm should contemplate a theater-specific treaty organization. As climate change threatens to destabilize the region, a unified force intent on providing stabilization efforts, preventing internal conflict and escalation, and enforcing international law deserves consideration and deliberation.}, }
@article {pmid36825371, year = {2023}, author = {Zhan, Y and Yao, Z and Groffman, PM and Xie, J and Wang, Y and Li, G and Zheng, X and Butterbach-Bahl, K}, title = {Urbanization can accelerate climate change by increasing soil N2 O emission while reducing CH4 uptake.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {3489-3502}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16652}, pmid = {36825371}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {41977282//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 42177217//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; //Beijing Key Laboratory of Ecological Function Assessment and Regulation Technology of Greenspace/ ; }, mesh = {*Soil/chemistry ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Urbanization ; Forests ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Methane/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {Urban land-use change has the potential to affect local to global biogeochemical carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. We conducted a meta-analysis to (1) assess the effects of urbanization-induced land-use conversion on soil nitrous oxide (N2 O) and methane (CH4) fluxes, (2) quantify direct N2 O emission factors (EFd) of fertilized urban soils used, for example, as lawns or forests, and (3) identify the key drivers leading to flux changes associated with urbanization. On average, urbanization increases soil N2 O emissions by 153%, to 3.0 kg N ha[-1] year[-1] , while rates of soil CH4 uptake are reduced by 50%, to 2.0 kg C ha[-1] year[-1] . The global mean annual N2 O EFd of fertilized lawns and urban forests is 1.4%, suggesting that urban soils can be regional hotspots of N2 O emissions. On a global basis, conversion of land to urban greenspaces has increased soil N2 O emission by 0.46 Tg N2 O-N year[-1] and decreased soil CH4 uptake by 0.58 Tg CH4 -C year[-1] . Urbanization driven changes in soil N2 O emission and CH4 uptake are associated with changes in soil properties (bulk density, pH, total N content, and C/N ratio), increased temperature, and management practices, especially fertilizer use. Overall, our meta-analysis shows that urbanization increases soil N2 O emissions and reduces the role of soils as a sink for atmospheric CH4 . These effects can be mitigated by avoiding soil compaction, reducing fertilization of lawns, and by restoring native ecosystems in urban landscapes.}, }
@article {pmid36825187, year = {2023}, author = {Ali, F and Khan, N and Khan, AM and Ali, K and Abbas, F}, title = {Species distribution modelling of Monotheca buxifolia (Falc.) A. DC.: Present distribution and impacts of potential climate change.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e13417}, pmid = {36825187}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Species distribution modelling (SDM) is an important tool to examine the possible change in the population range and/or niche-shift under current environment and predicted climate change. Monotheca buxifolia is an economically and ecologically important tree species inhabiting Pakistan and Afghanistan in dense patches, and species range is contracting rapidly. This study hypothesize that predicted climate change might remarkably influence the existing distribution pattern of M. buxifolia in the study area. A total of 75 occurrence locations were identified comprising M. buxifolia as a dominant tree species. The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm was utilized to perform the SDM under current (the 1970s-2000s) and two future climate change scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathways: SSPs 245 and 585) of two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). The optimal model settings were assessed, and simulation precision was assessed by examining the partial area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (pAUC-ROC). The results showed that out of 39 considered bio-climatic, topographic, edaphic, and remote sensing variables which were utilized in the preliminary model, 6 variables including precipitation of warmest quarter, topographic diversity, global human modification of terrestrial land, normalized difference vegetation index, isothermality, and elevation (in order) were the most influential drivers, and utilized in all reduced SDMs. A high predictive performance (pAUC-ROC; >0.9) of all the considered SDMs was recorded. A total of about 67,684 km[2] of geographical area was predicted as suitable habitat (p > 0.8) for M. buxifolia, and Pakistan is the leading country (with about 54,975 km[2] of suitable land area) under the current climate scenario. Overall, the existing distribution of the tree species in the study area might face considerable loss (i.e. rate of change %; -27 to -107) in future, and simultaneously a northward (high elevation) niche shift is predicted for all the considered future climate change scenarios. Hence, development and implementation of a coordinated conservation program is required on priority basis to save the tree species in its native geographic range.}, }
@article {pmid36824019, year = {2023}, author = {Eya, LI and Adam, IM and Ruvaisha, A and Adam, IM}, title = {Readiness of the Maldivian Health System to Climate Change.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {35}, number = {2-3}, pages = {230-231}, doi = {10.1177/10105395231158683}, pmid = {36824019}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36822432, year = {2023}, author = {Zheng, S and Li, J and Ye, C and Xian, X and Feng, M and Yu, X}, title = {Microbiological risks increased by ammonia-oxidizing bacteria under global warming: The neglected issue in chloraminated drinking water distribution system.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {874}, number = {}, pages = {162353}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162353}, pmid = {36822432}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Water Supply ; Chloramines/chemistry ; *Drinking Water ; Ammonia/metabolism ; Global Warming ; Bacteria/metabolism ; Nitrification ; Oxidation-Reduction ; Archaea/metabolism ; }, abstract = {A rising outbreak of waterborne diseases caused by global warming requires higher microbial stability in the drinking water distribution system (DWDS). Chloramine disinfection is gaining popularity in this context due to its good persistent stability and fewer disinfection byproducts. However, the microbiological risks may be significantly magnified by ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) in distribution systems during global warming, which is rarely noticed. Hence, this work mainly focuses on AOB to explore its impact on water quality biosafety in the context of global warming. Research indicates that global warming-induced high temperatures can directly or indirectly promote the growth of AOB, thus leading to nitrification. Further, its metabolites or cellular residues can be used as substrates for the growth of heterotrophic bacteria (e.g., waterborne pathogens). Thus, biofilm may be more persistent in the pipelines due to the presence of AOB. Breakpoint chlorination is usually applied to control such situations. However, switching between this strategy and chloramine disinfection would result in even more severe nitrification and other adverse effects. Based on the elevated microbiological risks in DWDS, the following aspects should be paid attention to in future research: (1) to understand the response of nitrifying bacteria to high temperatures and the possible association between AOB and pathogenic growth, (2) to reveal the mechanisms of AOB-mediated biofilm formation under high-temperature stress, and (3) to develop new technologies to prevent and control the occurrence of nitrification in drinking water distribution system.}, }
@article {pmid36822002, year = {2023}, author = {Cole, R and Hajat, S and Murage, P and Heaviside, C and Macintyre, H and Davies, M and Wilkinson, P}, title = {The contribution of demographic changes to future heat-related health burdens under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {173}, number = {}, pages = {107836}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2023.107836}, pmid = {36822002}, issn = {1873-6750}, support = {216035/Z/19/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Hot Temperature ; *Climate Change ; Life Expectancy ; Uncertainty ; Population Growth ; Mortality ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change will have a detrimental impact on global health, including the direct impact of higher ambient temperatures. Existing projections of heat-related health outcomes in a changing climate often consider increasing ambient temperatures alone. Population growth and structure has been identified as a key source of uncertainty in future projections. Age acts as a modifier of heat risk, with heat-risk generally increasing in older age-groups. In many countries the population is ageing as lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy alter the population structure. Preparing for an older population, in particular in the context of a warmer climate should therefore be a priority in public health research and policy. We assess the level of inclusion of population growth and demographic changes in research projecting exposure to heat and heat-related health outcomes. To assess the level of inclusion of population changes in the literature, keyword searches of two databases were implemented, followed by reference and citation scans to identify any missed papers. Relevant papers, those including a projection of the heat health burden under climate change, were then checked for inclusion of population scenarios. Where sensitivity to population change was studied the impact of this on projections was extracted. Our analysis suggests that projecting the heat health burden is a growing area of research, however, some areas remain understudied including Africa and the Middle East and morbidity is rarely explored with most studies focusing on mortality. Of the studies pairing projections of population and climate, specifically SSPs and RCPs, many used pairing considered to be unfeasible. We find that not including any projected changes in population or demographics leads to underestimation of health burdens of on average 64 %. Inclusion of population changes increased the heat health burden across all but two studies.}, }
@article {pmid36821586, year = {2023}, author = {Santos, F and Calle, N and Bonilla, S and Sarmiento, F and Herrnegger, M}, title = {Impacts of soil erosion and climate change on the built heritage of the Pambamarca Fortress Complex in northern Ecuador.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {e0281869}, pmid = {36821586}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Soil Erosion ; *Climate Change ; Ecuador ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Soil ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; }, abstract = {The Pambamarca fortress complex in northern Ecuador is a cultural and built heritage with 18 prehispanic fortresses known as Pucaras. They are mostly located on the ridge of the Pambamarca volcano, which is severely affected by erosion. In this research, we implemented a multiscale methodology to identify sheet, rill and gully erosion in the context of climate change for the prehistoric sites. In a first phase, we coupled the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and four CMIP6 climate models to evaluate and prioritize which Pucaras are prone to sheet and rill erosion, after comparing historical and future climate scenarios. Then, we conducted field visits to collect geophotos and soil samples for validation purposes, as well as drone flight campaigns to derive high resolution digital elevation models and identify gully erosion with the stream power index. Our erosion maps achieved an overall accuracy of 0.75 when compared with geophotos and correlated positively with soil samples sand fraction. The Pucaras evaluated with the historical climate scenario obtained erosion rates ranging between 0 and 20 ton*ha-1*yr-1. These rates also varied from -15.7% to 39.1% for four future climate change models that reported extreme conditions. In addition, after identifying and overflying six Pucaras that showed the highest erosion rates in the future climate models, we mapped their gully-prone areas that represented between 0.9% and 3.2% of their analyzed areas. The proposed methodology allowed us to observe how the design of the Pucaras and their concentric terraces have managed to reduce gully erosion, but also to notice the pressures they suffer due to their susceptibility to erosion, anthropic pressures and climate change. To address this, we suggest management strategies to guide the protection of this cultural and built heritage landscapes.}, }
@article {pmid36821486, year = {2023}, author = {Naughton, M and Payne, RA}, title = {The fight against climate change in primary care: a prescription for change.}, journal = {Family practice}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {508-510}, doi = {10.1093/fampra/cmac119}, pmid = {36821486}, issn = {1460-2229}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Prescriptions ; Primary Health Care ; }, }
@article {pmid36820855, year = {2023}, author = {Heinz, A and Meyer-Lindenberg, A and , }, title = {[Climate change and mental health. Position paper of a task force of the DGPPN].}, journal = {Der Nervenarzt}, volume = {94}, number = {3}, pages = {225-233}, pmid = {36820855}, issn = {1433-0407}, mesh = {Humans ; *Mental Health ; Climate Change ; Anxiety Disorders ; Anxiety ; *Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic ; }, abstract = {Climate change and the resulting higher frequency of extreme weather events have a direct negative impact on mental health. Natural disasters are particularly associated with an increase in the prevalence of depression, anxiety and posttraumatic stress disorder. Indirect consequences of climate change, such as food shortages, economic crises, violent conflicts and forced migration, additionally represent severe psychological risk and stress factors. Climate anxiety and solastalgia, the distress induced by environmental change, are new psychological syndromes in the face of the existential threat posed by the climate crisis. Accordingly, a sustainable psychiatry must prepare for increasing and changing demands. The principles of psychiatric treatment need to focus more on prevention to reduce the overall burden on the healthcare system. Waste of resources and CO2 emissions in psychiatric treatment processes as well as infrastructure must be perceived and prevented. Psychiatric education, training and continuing education concepts should be expanded to include the topic of climate change in order to comprehensively inform and sensitize professionals, those affected and the public and to encourage climate-friendly and health-promoting behavior. More in-depth research is needed on the impact of climate change on mental health. The DGPPN becomes a sponsor and aims for climate neutrality by 2030 by committing to climate-friendly and energy-saving measures in the area of finance, in relation to the DGPPN congress as well as the DGPPN office.}, }
@article {pmid36820201, year = {2023}, author = {da Silva Tavares, P and Acosta, R and Nobre, P and Resende, NC and Chou, SC and de Arruda Lyra, A}, title = {Water balance components and climate extremes over Brazil under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {40}, pmid = {36820201}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: This work aimed to evaluate changes in water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water availability) and precipitation extremes projected under global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, in Brazil. An ensemble of eight twenty-first-century projections with the Eta Regional Climate Model and their driving Global Climate Models (CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and BESM) were used. Projections of two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, considered intermediate and high concentration, respectively, were used. The results indicate that the RCP8.5 scenario under 2 °C GWL is likely to have a higher impact on the water balance components, amplifying trends in drier conditions and increasing the number of consecutive dry days in some regions of Brazil, particularly in the North and Northeast regions. On the other hand, the projections indicate the opposite sign for the South region, with trends toward wetter conditions and significant increases in extreme rainfall. The 0.5 °C difference between the GWLs contributes to intensifying reductions (increases) from 4 to 7% in water availability, mainly in the North-Northeast (South) regions. The projected changes could have serious consequences, such as increases in the number of drought events in hydrographic regions of the Northeast region of Brazil and increases in flood events in the South of the country. The results here presented can contribute to the formulation of adaptive planning strategies aimed at ensuring Brazil's water security towards climate change.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02042-1.}, }
@article {pmid36818897, year = {2022}, author = {Mahmood, J and Rajaram, NN and Guinto, RR}, title = {Addressing Food Insecurity and Climate Change in Malaysia: Current Evidence and Ways Forward.}, journal = {The Malaysian journal of medical sciences : MJMS}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {1-5}, pmid = {36818897}, issn = {1394-195X}, }
@article {pmid36818883, year = {2023}, author = {He, P and Li, Y and Huo, T and Meng, F and Peng, C and Bai, M}, title = {Priority planting area planning for cash crops under heavy metal pollution and climate change: A case study of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1080881}, pmid = {36818883}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Soil pollution by heavy metals and climate change pose substantial threats to the habitat suitability of cash crops. Discussing the suitability of cash crops in this context is necessary for the conservation and management of species. We developed a comprehensive evaluation system that is universally applicable to all plants stressed by heavy metal pollution.<br><br>METHODS: The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort within the study area (Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Chongqing) based on current and future climate conditions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios). We established the current Cd pollution status in the study area using kriging interpolation and kernel density. Additionally, the three scenarios were used in prediction models to simulate future Cd pollution conditions based on current Cd pollution data. The current and future priority planting areas for L. chuanxiong were determined by overlay analysis, and two levels of results were obtained.<br><br>RESULTS: The results revealed that the current first- and secondary-priority planting areas for L. chuanxiong were 2.06 &#xd7;10[3] km[2] and 1.64 &#xd7;10[4] km[2], respectively. Of these areas, the seven primary and twelve secondary counties for current L. chuanxiong cultivation should be given higher priority; these areas include Meishan, Qionglai, Pujiang, and other regions. Furthermore, all the priority zones based on the current and future scenarios were mainly concentrated on the Chengdu Plain, southeastern Sichuan and northern Chongqing. Future planning results indicated that Renshou, Pingwu, Meishan, Qionglai, Pengshan, and other regions are very important for L. chuanxiong planting, and a pessimistic scenario will negatively impact this potential planting. The spatial dynamics of priority areas in 2050 and 2070 clearly fluctuated under different prediction scenarios and were mainly distributed in northern Sichuan and western Chongqing.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Given these results, taking reasonable measures to replan and manage these areas is necessary. This study provides. not only a useful reference for the protection and cultivation of L. chuanxiong, but also a framework for analyzing other cash crops.}, }
@article {pmid36818660, year = {2023}, author = {Matiiuk, Y and Krikštolaitis, R and Liobikienė, G}, title = {The Covid-19 pandemic in context of climate change perception and resource-saving behavior in the European Union countries.}, journal = {Journal of cleaner production}, volume = {395}, number = {}, pages = {136433}, pmid = {36818660}, issn = {0959-6526}, abstract = {The resource-saving behavior in the recent period is escalating particularly due to the energy and prices crises in all of the European Union (EU). The COVID-19 pandemic not only caused changes in health concerns but also in environmental awareness and behavior. Thus, this paper aims to reveal whether the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the resource-saving behavior, and how this pandemic changed the climate change perception and personal responsibility in the EU countries. Referring to two surveys conducted in all EU countries in 2019 and 2021, the results revealed that the level of climate change perception during this period significantly decreased in all EU. Meanwhile, the level of responsibility placed on the government to solve the climate change problem increased the most. A level of the personal responsibility increased negligibly. Considering resource-saving behaviors, only the lesser usage of disposable items from 2019 to 2021 increased statistically significantly. The results of an analysis of the main determinants of resource-saving behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic period revealed that personal responsibility and the climate change solution's benefit for health positively and significantly determined all the analyzed actions. The climate change perception and climate change solution's benefit for the economy statistically significantly influenced waste reduction, the purchase of efficient appliances, and the usage of pro-environmental transportation mode instead of personal cars. Health benefits instead of the economic benefits statistically significantly contributed to the resource-saving behaviors, except for actions that require more monetary investments. The satisfaction with the COVID-19 pandemic management had an insignificant negative impact on all resource-saving actions. Thus, the tools assigned to manage this pandemic did not motivate people to save natural resources.}, }
@article {pmid36818294, year = {2023}, author = {Goldstein, E and Erinjery, JJ and Martin, G and Kasturiratne, A and Ediriweera, DS and Somaweera, R and de Silva, HJ and Diggle, P and Lalloo, DG and Murray, KA and Iwamura, T}, title = {Climate change maladaptation for health: Agricultural practice against shifting seasonal rainfall affects snakebite risk for farmers in the tropics.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {105946}, pmid = {36818294}, issn = {2589-0042}, support = {MR/P024513/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Snakebite affects more than 1.8 million people annually. Factors explaining snakebite variability include farmers' behaviors, snake ecology and climate. One unstudied issue is how farmers' adaptation to novel climates affect their health. Here we examined potential impacts of adaptation on snakebite using individual-based simulations, focusing on strategies meant to counteract major crop yield decline because of changing rainfall in Sri Lanka. For rubber cropping, adaptation led to a 33% increase in snakebite incidence per farmer work hour because of work during risky months, but a 17% decrease in total annual snakebites because of decreased labor in plantations overall. Rice farming adaptation decreased snakebites by 16%, because of shifting labor towards safer months, whereas tea adaptation led to a general increase. These results indicate that adaptation could have both a positive and negative effect, potentially intensified by ENSO. Our research highlights the need for assessing adaptation strategies for potential health maladaptations.}, }
@article {pmid36818118, year = {2023}, author = {Alvi, S and Salman, V and Bibi, FUN and Sarwar, N}, title = {Intergenerational and intragenerational preferences in a developing country to avoid climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1098382}, pmid = {36818118}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Intergenerational and intragenerational approaches to climate change take into account the actions taken by the current generation to maintain or improve the climate, which is advantageous to both the present and future generations. Climate-friendly initiatives primarily benefit future generations, with current generations receiving lesser benefits. Self-interest can hinder the management of shared resources, as seen in the "tragedy of the commons" concept, where individuals benefit from defecting, but society bears the consequences of it. This study used three different time horizons to determine the inter- and intra-generational preferences of groups of human subjects for preventing hazardous climate change. We looked at how groups of participants responded in scenarios that varied in motivation, income, social pressure, and learning opportunities. For this purpose, we conducted two group experiments framed around climate change where participants could choose to cooperate for a noble cause: tree plantations. Its rewards are delayed by several years and probably a few decades (intergenerational discounting), where future generations will be the big beneficiaries. There were two more options: the first one delayed the reward by 1 week, and the second was delayed by seven weeks (intragenerational discounting). We found that intergenerational discounting was high when the groups had free will and motivation. Further, it is revealed that having more money does not play a significant positive role in long-term climate sustainability in a developing country; however, it does, but not as much as motivation and free will do.}, }
@article {pmid36814931, year = {2023}, author = {Niedrist, GH}, title = {Substantial warming of Central European mountain rivers under climate change.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {43}, pmid = {36814931}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Water bodies around the world are currently warming with unprecedented rates since observations started, but warming occurs highly variable among ecoregions. So far, mountain rivers were expected to experience attenuated warming due to cold water input from snow or ice. However, air temperatures in mountain areas are increasing faster than the global average, and therefore warming effects are expected for cold riverine ecosystems. In decomposing multi-decadal water temperature data of two Central European mountain rivers with different discharge and water source regime, this work identified so far unreported (a) long-term warming trends (with river-size dependent rates between +0.24 and +0.44 °C decade[-1]); but also (b) seasonal shifts with both rivers warming not only during summer, but also in winter months (i.e., up to +0.52 °C decade[-1] in November); (c) significantly increasing minimum and maximum temperatures (e.g., temperatures in a larger river no longer reach freezing point since 1996 and maximum temperatures increased at rates between +0.4 and +0.7 °C decade[-1]); and (d) an expanding of warm-water periods during recent decades in these ecosystems. Our results show a substantial warming effect of mountain rivers with significant month-specific warming rates not only during summer but also in winter, suggesting that mountain river phenology continues to change with ongoing atmospheric warming. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that apart from a general warming, also seasonal shifts, changes in extreme temperatures, and expanding warm periods will play a role for ecological components of mountain rivers and should be considered in climate change assessments and mitigation management.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02037-y.}, }
@article {pmid36814429, year = {2023}, author = {Kleebayoon, A and Wiwanitkit, V}, title = {COVID-19, monkeypox, climate change and surgery: Correspondence.}, journal = {Perioperative care and operating room management}, volume = {31}, number = {}, pages = {100310}, pmid = {36814429}, issn = {2405-6030}, }
@article {pmid36811356, year = {2023}, author = {Carey, N and Chester, ET and Robson, BJ}, title = {Loss of functionally important and regionally endemic species from streams forced into intermittency by global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {11}, pages = {3019-3038}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16650}, pmid = {36811356}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Global Warming ; *Invertebrates ; *Rivers ; *Aquatic Organisms ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering hydrological cycles globally, and in Mediterranean (med-) climate regions it is causing the drying of river flow regimes, including the loss of perennial flows. Water regime exerts a strong influence over stream assemblages, which have developed over geological timeframes with the extant flow regime. Consequently, sudden drying in formerly perennial streams is expected to have large, negative impacts on stream fauna. We compared contemporary (2016/17) macroinvertebrate assemblages of formerly perennial streams that became intermittently flowing (since the early 2000s) to assemblages recorded in the same streams by a study conducted pre-drying (1981/82) in the med-climate region of southwestern Australia (the Wungong Brook catchment, SWA), using a multiple before-after, control-impact design. Assemblage composition in the stream reaches that remained perennial changed very little between the studies. In contrast, recent intermittency had a profound effect on species composition in streams impacted by drying, including the extirpation of nearly all Gondwanan relictual insect species. New species arriving at intermittent streams tended to be widespread, resilient species including desert-adapted taxa. Intermittent streams also had distinct species assemblages, due in part to differences in their hydroperiods, allowing the establishment of distinct winter and summer assemblages in streams with longer-lived pools. The remaining perennial stream is the only refuge for ancient Gondwanan relict species and the only place in the Wungong Brook catchment where many of these species still persist. The fauna of SWA upland streams is becoming homogenised with that of the wider Western Australian landscape, as drought-tolerant, widespread species replace local endemics. Flow regime drying caused large, in situ alterations to stream assemblage composition and demonstrates the threat posed to relictual stream faunas in regions where climates are drying.}, }
@article {pmid36810764, year = {2023}, author = {Tjiputra, JF and Negrel, J and Olsen, A}, title = {Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {3006}, pmid = {36810764}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {275268//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d (Research Council of Norway)/ ; 318477//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d (Research Council of Norway)/ ; 295046//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d (Research Council of Norway)/ ; 817578//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council)/ ; 820989//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Excellent Science (H2020 Priority Excellent Science)/ ; 275268//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d (Research Council of Norway)/ ; }, abstract = {Robust detection of anthropogenic climate change is crucial to: (i) improve our understanding of Earth system responses to external forcing, (ii) reduce uncertainty in future climate projections, and (iii) develop efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here, we use Earth system model projections to establish the detection timescales of anthropogenic signals in the global ocean through analyzing temperature, salinity, oxygen, and pH evolution from surface to 2000 m depths. For most variables, anthropogenic changes emerge earlier in the interior ocean than at the surface, due to the lower background variability at depth. Acidification is detectable earliest, followed by warming and oxygen changes in the subsurface tropical Atlantic. Temperature and salinity changes in the subsurface tropical and subtropical North Atlantic are shown to be early indicators for a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Even under mitigated scenarios, inner ocean anthropogenic signals are projected to emerge within the next few decades. This is because they originate from existing surface changes that are now propagating into the interior. In addition to the tropical Atlantic, our study calls for establishment of long-term interior monitoring systems in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in order to elucidate how spatially heterogeneous anthropogenic signals propagate into the interior and impact marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry.}, }
@article {pmid36808228, year = {2023}, author = {Ozkan, J}, title = {Too hot to handle? Mitigating the effects of climate change on cardiovascular health.}, journal = {European heart journal}, volume = {44}, number = {17}, pages = {1488-1490}, doi = {10.1093/eurheartj/ehad051}, pmid = {36808228}, issn = {1522-9645}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Public Health ; *Cardiovascular System ; Heart ; }, }
@article {pmid36807829, year = {2023}, author = {Lutz, V and Chidiak, M and Frouin, R and Negri, R and Dogliotti, AI and Santamaria-Del-Angel, E and Berghoff, CF and Rojas, J and Filipello, C and Astor, Y and Segura, V and Gonzalez-Silvera, A and Escudero, L and Ledesma, J and Ueyoshi, K and Silva, RI and Ruiz, MG and Cozzolino, E and Allega, L and Tan, J and Kampel, M}, title = {Regulation of CO2 by the sea in areas around Latin America in a context of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {3}, pages = {417}, pmid = {36807829}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {IAI-CRN3094 US-NSF//Inter-American Institute for Global Change Institute/ ; 96280221//CONICIT Venezuela/ ; OBB//Earth Sciences Division/ ; CONICET-IAI-CRN3094//CONICET Argentina/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Latin America ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Methane/analysis ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic activities are increasing the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2); around a third of the CO2 emitted by these activities has been taken up by the ocean. Nevertheless, this marine ecosystem service of regulation remains largely invisible to society, and not enough is known about regional differences and trends in sea-air CO2 fluxes (FCO2), especially in the Southern Hemisphere. The objectives of this work were as follows: first to put values of FCO2 integrated over the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of five Latin-American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela) into perspective regarding total country-level greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. Second, to assess the variability of two main biological factors affecting FCO2 at marine ecological time series (METS) in these areas. FCO2 over the EEZs were estimated using the NEMO model, and GHG emissions were taken from reports to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. For each METS, the variability in phytoplankton biomass (indexed by chlorophyll-a concentration, Chla) and abundance of different cell sizes (phy-size) were analyzed at two time periods (2000-2015 and 2007-2015). Estimates of FCO2 at the analyzed EEZs showed high variability among each other and non-negligible values in the context of greenhouse gas emissions. The trends observed at the METS indicated, in some cases, an increase in Chla (e.g., EPEA-Argentina) and a decrease in others (e.g., IMARPE-Peru). Evidence of increasing populations of small size-phytoplankton was observed (e.g., EPEA-Argentina, Ensenada-Mexico), which would affect the carbon export to the deep ocean. These results highlight the relevance of ocean health and its ecosystem service of regulation when discussing carbon net emissions and budgets.}, }
@article {pmid36805358, year = {2023}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Clot, B and Sofiev, M and Johnston, FH}, title = {Climate change, airborne allergens, and three translational mitigation approaches.}, journal = {EBioMedicine}, volume = {93}, number = {}, pages = {104478}, pmid = {36805358}, issn = {2352-3964}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Allergens/adverse effects ; Pollen ; *Asthma/chemically induced ; }, abstract = {One of the important adverse impacts of climate change on human health is increases in allergic respiratory diseases such as allergic rhinitis and asthma. This impact is via the effects of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and air temperature on sources of airborne allergens such as pollen and fungal spores. This review describes these effects and then explores three translational mitigation approaches that may lead to improved health outcomes, with recent examples and developments highlighted. Impacts have already been observed on the seasonality, production and atmospheric concentration, allergenicity, and geographic distribution of airborne allergens, and these are projected to continue into the future. A technological revolution is underway that has the potential to advance patient management by better avoiding associated increased exposures, including automated real-time airborne allergen monitoring, airborne allergen forecasting and modelling, and smartphone apps for mitigating the health impacts of airborne allergens.}, }
@article {pmid36805062, year = {2023}, author = {Sun, F and Chang, R and Tariq, A and Sardans, J and Penuelas, J and Jiang, H and Zhou, X and Li, N}, title = {Livestock grazing-exclusion under global warming scenario decreases phosphorus mineralization by changing soil food web structure in a Tibetan alpine meadow.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {873}, number = {}, pages = {162313}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162313}, pmid = {36805062}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; Tibet ; *Grassland ; Phosphorus ; Livestock ; Food Chain ; Soil/chemistry ; Phosphoric Monoester Hydrolases ; }, abstract = {The exclusion of grazing has been used extensively in alpine meadows on the Tibetan Plateau. Studies, however, have shown reported recent trends of decreasing concentrations of soil nutrients because of grazing exclusion and climate change. The effects of excluding grazing on the soil biogeochemical process of phosphorus cycling in alpine meadows are unclear, especially under climatic warming. We conducted a 5-year grazing-exclusion and warming-manipulation experiment to examine the effects of excluding grazing on fractions of soil phosphorus, microbial and nematode communities and enzymatic activities in treatments of low grazing intensity, grazing exclusion, and combined grazing exclusion and warming. Our results indicated that excluding grazing significantly decreased bacterivore and omnivore-predator densities, phoD gene abundance and alkaline phosphomonoesterase activity (in the 0-5 cm layer by -34, -41, -38 and -42 %) at altitudes of 3850 m, 4000 m, 4150 m and 4250 m, respectively. Structural equation modeling indicated that bacterivores positively affected phoD gene abundance, alkaline phosphomonoesterase activity and inorganic‑phosphorus fractions. Combined grazing exclusion and warming significantly decreased bacterivore and omnivore-predator densities but significantly increased fungivore density (in the 0-5 cm layer by 238, 172, 119 and 65 %) at altitudes of 3850, 4000, 4150 and 4250 m, respectively. Structural equation modeling also indicated that the combined grazing-exclusion and warming treatment increased the soil fungi and fungivores, but the higher abundances of fungi and fungivores did not significantly affect acid phosphomonoesterase activity or inorganic‑phosphorus fractions. Alternatively, the combined grazing-exclusion and warming treatment significantly increased the concentrations of amorphous and free aluminum, which were positively correlated with the maximum adsorption of phosphorus. The combined grazing-exclusion and warming treatment thus significantly decreased the availability of resin phosphorus (-63, -51, -81 and -67 %) in the 0-5 cm layer at altitudes of 3850, 4000, 4150 and 4250 m, respectively. Our results suggested that light grazing (0.5 yak ha[-1] year[-1]) could increase phosphorus mineralization and the activity of soil enzymes in alpine meadows under global warming. An adequate load of livestock pressure at each altitude can be an effective management technique, mainly under warming, to maintain an adequate, sustainable and equilibrated phosphorus cycle in the plant-soil system.}, }
@article {pmid36804960, year = {2023}, author = {Nainggolan, D and Abay, AT and Christensen, JH and Termansen, M}, title = {The impact of climate change on crop mix shift in the Nordic region.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {2962}, pmid = {36804960}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {308337//BASE-EU FP7-Project/ ; }, abstract = {Growing evidence of anthropogenic climate change suggests marked changes in agricultural ecosystems and crop suitability across the globe. Northern Europe is primarily predicted to see beneficial impacts through crop shifts towards the North of the region. However, studies that quantify the magnitude of climate induced past shifts and the likely future shifts in the agricultural land use patterns are lacking. We use a rich municipality level longitudinal data set from the Nordic region from 1979 to 2012 to study farmers' adaptation to climate change in terms of crop mix shift. We model four land use classes, namely, cereal, grass, oil seed, and 'others', a category summing the remaining agricultural land uses. On top of climatic variables, we include biophysical and economic variables as controls in the regression. We utilize a multinomial fractional logit regression to estimate changes in the land use mix. The projection results indicate that both the near future (2041-2070) and the far future (2071-2100) projected climate are likely to increase the area share of cereal and at the same time decrease the share of grass in the Nordic region relative to the baseline climate (1981-2010). However, these results vary across the region. The results generally suggest a moderate climate induced impact on the spatial crop distributions. Our projection results show a moderate shift in agricultural crop distributions depending on the climate scenario and the time-horizon. Depending on the climate change scenario, grass and cereal are expected to shift by up to 92.8 and 178.7 km, respectively, towards opposite directions; grass towards the South-West and cereal towards the North-East. Overall, the projected areal expansion of cereal towards the North-East is expected to lead to increased environmental pressure.}, }
@article {pmid36804885, year = {2023}, author = {Tian, C and Yue, X and Zhu, J and Liao, H and Yang, Y and Chen, L and Zhou, X and Lei, Y and Zhou, H and Cao, Y}, title = {Projections of fire emissions and the consequent impacts on air quality under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {323}, number = {}, pages = {121311}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121311}, pmid = {36804885}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Humans ; Global Warming ; Biodiversity ; Temperature ; *Air Pollution ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; }, abstract = {Fire is a major source of atmospheric aerosols and trace gases. Projection of future fire activities is challenging due to the joint impacts of climate, vegetation, and human activities. Here, we project global changes of fire-induced particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) under 1.5 °C/2 °C warming using a climate-chemistry-vegetation coupled model in combination with site-level and satellite-based observations. Compared to the present day, fire emissions of varied air pollutants increase by 10.0%-15.4% at the 1.5 °C warming period and 15.1%-22.5% at the 2 °C warming period, with the most significant enhancements in Amazon, southern Africa, and boreal Eurasia. The warmer climate promotes fuel dryness and the higher leaf area index increases fuel availability, leading to escalated fire flammability globally. However, moderate declines in fire emissions are predicted over the Sahel region, because the higher population density increases fire suppressions and consequently inhibits fire activities over central Africa. Following the changes in fire emissions, the population-weighted exposure to fire PM2.5 increases by 5.1% under 1.5 °C warming and 13.0% under 2 °C warming. Meanwhile, the exposure to fire O3 enhances by 10.2% and 16.0% in response to global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively. As a result, limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 °C can greatly reduce the risks of exposure to fire-induced air pollution compared to 2 °C.}, }
@article {pmid36802450, year = {2023}, author = {Yang, H and Macario-González, L and Cohuo, S and Whitmore, TJ and Salgado, J and Peréz, L and Schwalb, A and Rose, NL and Holmes, J and Riedinger-Whitmore, MA and Hoelzmann, P and O'Dea, A}, title = {Mercury Pollution History in Tropical and Subtropical American Lakes: Multiple Impacts and the Possible Relationship with Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {57}, number = {9}, pages = {3680-3690}, pmid = {36802450}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Humans ; Lakes ; *Mercury/analysis ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollution ; Geologic Sediments ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Sediment cores obtained from 11 tropical and subtropical American lakes revealed that local human activities significantly increased mercury (Hg) inputs and pollution levels. Remote lakes also have been contaminated by anthropogenic Hg through atmospheric depositions. Long-term sediment-core profiles revealed an approximately 3-fold increase in Hg fluxes to sediments from c. 1850 to 2000. Generalized additive models indicate that c. 3-fold increases in Hg fluxes also occurred since 2000 in the remote sites, while Hg emissions from anthropogenic sources have remained relatively stable. The tropical and subtropical Americas are vulnerable to extreme weather events. Air temperatures in this region have shown a marked increase since the 1990s, and extreme weather events arising from climate change have increased. When comparing Hg fluxes to recent (1950-2016) climatic changes, results show marked increases in Hg fluxes to sediments during dry periods. The Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) time series indicate a tendency toward more extreme drier conditions across the study region since the mid-1990s, suggesting that instabilities in catchment surfaces caused by climate change are responsible for the elevated Hg flux rates. Drier conditions since c. 2000 appear to be promoting Hg fluxes from catchments to lakes, a process that will likely be exacerbated under future climate-change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid36801933, year = {2023}, author = {Motamedi, A and Gohari, A and Haghighi, AT}, title = {Three-decade assessment of dry and wet spells change across Iran, a fingerprint of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {2888}, pmid = {36801933}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Extended periods of hydro-climate extremes with excessive or scarce rainfall associated with high or low temperatures have resulted in an imbalanced water cycle and inefficient socio-economic systems in several regions of Iran. However, there is a lack of comprehensive investigations on short-term to long-term variations in timing, duration, and temperature of wet/dry spells. This study bridges the current gap through a comprehensive statistical analysis of historical climatic data (1959-2018). Results indicated that the negative tendency of the accumulated rainfall (- 0.16/ - 0.35 mm/year during the past 60/30 years) in 2- to 6-day wet spells had made significant contributions to the ongoing downward trend in annual rainfall (- 0.5/ - 1.5 mm/year during the past 60/30 years) owing to a warmer climate condition. Warmer wet spells are likely responsible for precipitation patterns changes in snow-dominated stations since their wet spells temperature has more than threefold growth with increasing distance to coasts. The most detected trends in climatic patterns have started in the last two decades and become more severe from 2009 to 2018. Our results confirm the alteration of precipitation features across Iran due to anthropogenic climatic change, and suggest expected increase in air temperature would likely result in further dry and warm conditions over the coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid36801608, year = {2023}, author = {Wright, ML and Drake, D and Link, DG and Berg, JA}, title = {Climate change and the adverse impact on the health and well-being of women and girls from the Women's Health Expert Panel of the American Academy of Nursing.}, journal = {Nursing outlook}, volume = {71}, number = {2}, pages = {101919}, doi = {10.1016/j.outlook.2023.101919}, pmid = {36801608}, issn = {1528-3968}, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Women's Health ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change has measurable adverse impact on the general and reproductive health of women and girls. Multinational government organizations, private foundations, and consumer groups identify anthropogenic disruptions in social and ecological environments as the primary threats to human health this century. Drought, micronutrient shortage, famine, mass migration, conflict over resources, and effects on mental health resulting from displacement and war are challenging effects to manage. The most severe effects will be felt by those with the least resources to prepare for and adapt to changes. Climate change is a phenomenon of interest to women's health professionals because women and girls are more vulnerable to the effects due to a combination of physiologic, biologic, cultural, and socioeconomic risk factors. Nurses, with our scientific foundation, human-centered approach, and position of trust in societies can be leaders in efforts at mitigation, adaptation, and building resilience in response to changes in our planetary health.}, }
@article {pmid36801235, year = {2023}, author = {Jia, R and Li, P and Chen, C and Liu, L and Li, ZH}, title = {Shellfish-algal systems as important components of fisheries carbon sinks: Their contribution and response to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {224}, number = {}, pages = {115511}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.115511}, pmid = {36801235}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Carbon Sequestration ; *Seawater ; Climate Change ; Fisheries ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Shellfish ; Carbon ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {In the context of global climate change, ocean acidification and warming are becoming increasingly serious. Adding carbon sinks in the ocean is an important part of efforts to mitigate climate change. Many researchers have proposed the concept of a fisheries carbon sink. Shellfish-algal systems are among the most important components of fisheries carbon sinks, but there has been limited research on the impact of climate change on shellfish-algal carbon sequestration systems. This review assesses the impact of global climate change on shellfish-algal carbon sequestration systems and provides a rough estimate of the global shellfish-algal carbon sink capacity. This review evaluates the impact of global climate change on shellfish-algal carbon sequestration systems. We review relevant studies that have examined the effects of climate change on such systems from multiple levels, perspectives, and species. There is an urgent need for more realistic and comprehensive studies given expectations about the future climate. Such studies should provide a better understanding of the mechanisms by which the carbon cycle function of marine biological carbon pumps may be affected in realistic future environmental conditions and the patterns of interaction between climate change and ocean carbon sinks.}, }
@article {pmid36800404, year = {2023}, author = {Poindexter, K}, title = {Global Code Red: Nursing Education's Call to Climate Change.}, journal = {Nursing education perspectives}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {73-74}, pmid = {36800404}, issn = {1536-5026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Education, Nursing ; }, }
@article {pmid36799390, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, J and Li, G and Yan, LJ and Liu, Q and Nie, ZG}, title = {Variation characteristics of climatic potential yield and resources utilization efficiency of maize under the background of climate change in agro-pastoral transitional zone of Gansu, China.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {160-168}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202301.023}, pmid = {36799390}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; *Zea mays ; Rain ; Sunlight ; }, abstract = {To evaluate the effects of changes in radiation, accumulative temperature, precipitation and climate resources on climate resource utilization efficiency in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Gansu Province, we analyzed the variations of climate potential yield loss rate, light, heat, precipitation and comprehensive utilization efficiency of climate resources in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Gansu Province by the step-by-step correction and indexation method, with the 1971-2020 weather data from 45 meteorological sites and the maize phenology data. The results showed that solar radiation showed fluctuating downward trend at a rate of -22.03 MJ·m[-2]·(10 a)[-1], the accumulative ≥11 ℃ temperature showed significant upward trend at a rate of 60.89 ℃·(10 a)[-1], the precipitation showed slow upward trend at a rate of 2.05 mm·(10 a)[-1] during the study period. The climate potential yield loss rate due to temperature and precipitation limitations was relatively high in Gannan and the northern part of Longzhong, while it was relatively low in the most areas of Longdong. Except for the central part of the study area and part of Longdong, the climate potential yield loss rate due to temperature and precipitation limitations in other regions of the study area showed decreased trend at the rate of -2.0%·(10 a)[-1] and -0.6%·(10 a)[-1]. The low-value areas of light and heat utilization efficiency distributed in the northern and southern parts of Longzhong and part of Gannan, the low-value area of precipitation utilization efficiency distributed in Gannan, and the low value of comprehensive utilization efficiency distributed in Lanzhou and Baiyin which were 0.41 and 0.47, respectively. Longdong was the most suitable for maize planting, where the climate resources utilization efficiency of maize was highest, followed by Gannan and Longzhong. The average tendency rate of light, heat, precipitation and climate resources comprehensive utilization efficiency in the study area showed increased trend, which were 0.1%·(10 a)[-1], 0.07 kg·hm[-2]·℃[-1]·d[-1]·(10 a)[-1], 1.17 kg·hm[-2]·mm[-1]·(10 a)[-1] and 0.05 ·(10 a)[-1], respectively, showing a good potential to increase maize yield.}, }
@article {pmid36798836, year = {2023}, author = {Martínez-Valderrama, J and Ibáñez, J}, title = {Implementing climate change projections in System Dynamics models.}, journal = {MethodsX}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {102044}, pmid = {36798836}, issn = {2215-0161}, abstract = {Desertification is the degradation of drylands, which occupy an increasing proportion of the Earth's surface due to global warming. It is currently the most extensive biome on Earth, occupying 45% and one out of every three inhabitants of the planet live in them. One of the most effective ways to face desertification, as Land Degradation Neutrality points out, is prevention. For this purpose, simulation models are very useful tools. Specifically, System Dynamics models are particularly effective, since they allow bringing together the biophysical and socioeconomic variables involved in the formation of the problem. These integrative models, coupled with other tools such as sensitivity analyses, are used to generate desertification early warning indicators. The objective of this programming routine is to implement climate change scenarios in these simulation models. The script presented here was used to evaluate the sensitivity of dehesa rangelands productivity to the increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts due to climate change.•Integrated simulation models are useful tools to understand complex socioecosystems.•Land-use changes foster the alteration of key hydro-bio-geochemical processes.•By means of automated import processes and data analysis programming, it is possible to implement desertification early warning systems.}, }
@article {pmid36798595, year = {2023}, author = {Fonseca, C and Wood, LE and Andriamahefazafy, M and Casal, G and Chaigneau, T and Cornet, CC and Degia, AK and Failler, P and Ferraro, G and Furlan, E and Hawkins, J and de Juan, S and Krause, T and McCarthy, T and Pérez, G and Roberts, C and Trégarot, E and O'Leary, BC}, title = {Survey data of public awareness on climate change and the value of marine and coastal ecosystems.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {47}, number = {}, pages = {108924}, pmid = {36798595}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {The long-term provision of ocean ecosystem services depends on healthy ecosystems and effective sustainable management. Understanding public opinion about marine and coastal ecosystems is important to guide decision-making and inform specific actions. However, available data on public perceptions on the interlinked effects of climate change, human impacts and the value and management of marine and coastal ecosystems are rare. This dataset presents raw data from an online, self-administered, public awareness survey conducted between November 2021 and February 2022 which yielded 709 responses from 42 countries. The survey was released in four languages (English, French, Spanish and Italian) and consisted of four main parts: (1) perceptions about climate change; (2) perceptions about the value of, and threats to, coasts, oceans and their wildlife, (3) perceptions about climate change response; and (4) socio-demographic information. Participation in the survey was voluntary and all respondents provided informed consent after reading a participant information form at the beginning of the survey. Responses were anonymous unless respondents chose to provide contact information. All identifying information has been removed from the dataset. The dataset can be used to conduct quantitative analyses, especially in the area of public perceptions of the interlinkages between climate change, human impacts and options for sustainable management in the context of marine and coastal ecosystems. The dataset is provided with this article, including a copy of the survey and participant information forms in all four languages, data and the corresponding codebook.}, }
@article {pmid36797719, year = {2023}, author = {Pan, Z and Yu, L and Shao, M and Ma, Y and Cheng, Y and Wu, Y and Xu, S and Zhang, C and Zhu, J and Pan, F and Sun, G}, title = {The influence of meteorological factors and total malignant tumor health risk in Wuhu city in the context of climate change.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {346}, pmid = {36797719}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {81273169//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2017D140//funds for academic and technical leaders in Anhui province/ ; 2020xkjT006//funds for Scientific Research of Anhui Medical University/ ; 81573218//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 81773514//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 82073655//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Male ; Female ; *Climate Change ; Risk ; Temperature ; *Cold Temperature ; Meteorological Concepts ; China/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {With the increasing severity of the malignant tumors situation worldwide, the impacts of climate on them are receiving increasing attention. In this study, for the first time, all-malignant tumors were used as the dependent variable and absolute humidity (AH) was innovatively introduced into the independent variable to investigate the relationship between all-malignant tumors and meteorological factors. A total of 42,188 cases of malignant tumor deaths and meteorological factors in Wuhu City were collected over a 7-year (2014-2020) period. The analysis method combines distributed lagged nonlinear modeling (DLNM) as well as generalized additive modeling (GAM), with prior pre-analysis using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results showed that AH, temperature mean (T mean) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) all increased the malignant tumors mortality risk. Exposure to low and exceedingly low AH increases the malignant tumors mortality risk with maximum RR values of 1.008 (95% CI: 1.001, 1.015, lag 3) and 1.016 (95% CI: 1.001, 1.032, lag 1), respectively. In addition, low and exceedingly low T mean exposures also increased the risk of malignant tumors mortality, the maximum RR was 1.020 (95% CI: 1.006, 1.034) for low T mean and 1.035 (95% CI: 1.014, 1.058) for exceedingly low T mean. As for DTR, all four levels (exceedingly low, low, high, exceedingly high, from low to high) of exposure increased the risk of death from malignant tumors, from exceedingly low to exceedingly high maximum RR values of 1.018 (95% CI: 1.004, 1.032), 1.011 (95% CI: 1.005, 1.017), 1.006 (95% CI: 1.001, 1.012) and 1.019 (95% CI: 1.007, 1.031), respectively. The results of the stratified analysis suggested that female appear to be more sensitive to humidity, while male require additional attention to reduce exposure to high level of DTR.}, }
@article {pmid36796967, year = {2023}, author = {Dhimal, M and Bhandari, D}, title = {Climate change and imperatives to ascertain causes of infectious diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries.}, journal = {The Lancet. Global health}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e308-e309}, doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00012-8}, pmid = {36796967}, issn = {2214-109X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; Diarrhea/epidemiology/etiology ; Causality ; }, }
@article {pmid36796921, year = {2023}, author = {Santos, MA and Antunes, MA and Grandela, A and Carromeu-Santos, A and Quina, AS and Santos, M and Matos, M and Simões, P}, title = {Past history shapes evolution of reproductive success in a global warming scenario.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {112}, number = {}, pages = {103478}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2023.103478}, pmid = {36796921}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; *Biological Evolution ; Reproduction ; Drosophila/genetics ; Acclimatization ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Adaptive evolution is critical for animal populations to thrive in the fast-changing natural environments. Ectotherms are particularly vulnerable to global warming and, although their limited coping ability has been suggested, few real-time evolution experiments have directly accessed their evolutionary potential. Here, we report a long-term experimental evolution study addressing the evolution of Drosophila thermal reaction norms, after ∼30 generations under different dynamic thermal regimes: fluctuating (daily variation between 15 and 21 °C) or warming (daily fluctuation with increases in both thermal mean and variance across generations). We analyzed the evolutionary dynamics of Drosophila subobscura populations as a function of the thermally variable environments in which they evolved and their distinct background. Our results showed clear differences between the historically differentiated populations: high latitude D. subobscura populations responded to selection, improving their reproductive success at higher temperatures whereas their low latitude counterparts did not. This suggests population variation in the amount of genetic variation available for thermal adaptation, an aspect that needs to be considered to allow for better predictions of future climate change responses. Our results highlight the complex nature of thermal responses in face of environmental heterogeneity and emphasize the importance of considering inter-population variation in thermal evolution studies.}, }
@article {pmid36796891, year = {2023}, author = {Cetin, M and Sevik, H and Koc, I and Zeren Cetin, I}, title = {The change in biocomfort zones in the area of Muğla province in near future due to the global climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {112}, number = {}, pages = {103434}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2022.103434}, pmid = {36796891}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Temperature ; *Cold Temperature ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {It is inevitable that the global climate change, which has important effects on the climate throughout the world, would have significant effects on the biocomfort zones. Hence, how global climate change will change the biocomfort zones should be determined and the data to be obtained should be used in urban planning projects. In the current study, SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 scenarios were taken as a basis, and the potential effects of global climate change on the biocomfort zones in Muğla province, Türkiye were investigated. Within the scope of the present study, the current status of biocomfort zones in Muğla and their possible conditions in years 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 were compared using DI and ETv methods. At the end of the study, it was estimated that, according DI method, 14.13% of Muğla province are in cold zone, 31.96% in cool zone, and 53.71% in comfortable zone. According to the SSPs 585 scenario, together with the increase in temperature, the cold and cool zones will totally disappear in year 2100, comfortable zones will decrease to 31.22%, and approx. 68.78% of the province will be in hot zone. According to the calculations made using ETv method, Muğla province currently consists of moderately cold zones by 2%, quite cold zones by 13.16%, slightly cold zones by 57.06%, and mild zones by 27.79%. Based on the SSPs 585 scenario for the year 2100, it is projected that Muğla will consist of slightly cool zones by 1.41%, mild zones by 14.42%, and comfortable zones by 68.06%, besides warm zones by 16.11% which are not present at this moment. This finding suggests that especially the cooling costs will increase and the air-conditioning systems to be used will negatively affect the global climate change through the energy consumption and the gases used.}, }
@article {pmid36796398, year = {2023}, author = {The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, }, title = {Climate change crisis goes critical.}, journal = {The Lancet. Respiratory medicine}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {213}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-2600(23)00056-5}, pmid = {36796398}, issn = {2213-2619}, }
@article {pmid36794773, year = {2023}, author = {Seiler, LY and Stalker, GJ}, title = {Canadian climate change attitudes and energy policy.}, journal = {Canadian review of sociology = Revue canadienne de sociologie}, volume = {60}, number = {1}, pages = {4-28}, doi = {10.1111/cars.12424}, pmid = {36794773}, issn = {1755-618X}, support = {Impact Grant #430-2012-0685//Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada/ ; Research Training Award #IT19643//Mitacs/ ; }, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Canada ; *Public Policy ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Attitude ; }, abstract = {This paper uses original Canadian survey data to compare support for and opposition to five energy-related climate policies. Results show that Canadians were very concerned about climate change and supportive of the policies. Variation in support and opposition was investigated using logistic regression. We tested models that associate climate policy support with a combination of one's ecological worldview, climate change attitudes, personal capabilities, contextual influences, and ascription of responsibility to take action on climate change, applying elements of Stern's (2000) theory of environmentally-significant behaviour and Patchen's (2010) model of climate change behaviour. We found that the more abstract policies attracted a different set of predictors than the more concrete policies. Females and parents showed increased support for the more abstract policies. Having an ecological worldview was a significant predictor of support for all policies but was obscured by other factors in a combined model. Cet article utilise des données d'enquête canadiennes originales pour comparer le soutien et l'opposition à cinq politiques climatiques liées à l'énergie. Les résultats montrent que les Canadiens étaient très préoccupés par le changement climatique et appuyaient les politiques. La variation du soutien et de l'opposition a été étudiée à l'aide de la régression logistique. Nous avons testé des modèles qui associent le soutien à la politique climatique à une combinaison de vision du monde écologique, d'attitudes face au changement climatique, de capacités personnelles, d'influences contextuelles et d'attribution de la responsabilité d'agir sur le changement climatique, en appliquant des éléments de la théorie de Stern (2000) sur le comportement significatif pour l'environnement et le modèle de comportement face au changement climatique de Patchen (2010). Nous avons constaté que les politiques plus abstraites attiraient un ensemble différent de prédicteurs que les politiques plus concrètes. Les femmes et les parents ont montré un soutien accru pour les politiques plus abstraites. Avoir une vision du monde écologique était un prédicteur significatif du soutien à toutes les politiques, mais était obscurci par d'autres facteurs dans un modèle combiné.}, }
@article {pmid36794619, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ leader}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {251-252}, doi = {10.1136/leader-2022-000696}, pmid = {36794619}, issn = {2398-631X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36794470, year = {2023}, author = {Powlson, DS and Galdos, MV}, title = {Challenging claimed benefits of soil carbon sequestration for mitigating climate change and increasing crop yields: Heresy or sober realism?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {9}, pages = {2381-2383}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16640}, pmid = {36794470}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Soil ; *Climate Change ; Carbon Sequestration ; Agriculture ; Carbon ; }, }
@article {pmid36793894, year = {2023}, author = {Arikan, A and Cakir, N}, title = {Climate change and future infectious diseases: A growing threat.}, journal = {New microbes and new infections}, volume = {52}, number = {}, pages = {101088}, pmid = {36793894}, issn = {2052-2975}, }
@article {pmid36792531, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, BX and Hof, AR and Matson, KD and van Langevelde, F and Ma, CS}, title = {Climate change, host plant availability, and irrigation shape future region-specific distributions of the Sitobion grain aphid complex.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {79}, number = {7}, pages = {2311-2324}, doi = {10.1002/ps.7409}, pmid = {36792531}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {//Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ ; //Chinese Scholarship Council/ ; //National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Aphids ; Climate Change ; Ecology ; Africa ; Asia ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Understanding where species occur using species distribution models has become fundamental to ecology. Although much attention has been paid to invasive species, questions about climate change related range shifts of widespread insect pests remain unanswered. Here, we incorporated bioclimatic factors and host plant availability into CLIMEX models to predict distributions under future climate scenarios of major cereal pests of the Sitobion grain aphid complex (Sitobion avenae, S. miscanthi, and S. akebiae). Additionally, we incorporated the application of irrigation in our models to explore the relevance of a frequently used management practice that may interact with effects of climate change of the pest distributions.<br><br>RESULTS: Our models predicted that the area potentially at high risk of outbreaks of the Sitobion grain aphid complex would increase from 41.3% to 53.3% of the global land mass. This expansion was underlined by regional shifts in both directions: expansion of risk areas in North America, Europe, most of Asia, and Oceania, and contraction of risk areas in South America, Africa, and Australia. In addition, we found that host plant availability limited the potential distribution of pests, while the application of irrigation expanded it.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our study provides insights into potential risk areas of insect pests and how climate, host plant availability, and irrigation affect the occurrence of the Sitobion grain aphid complex. Our results thereby support agricultural policy makers, farmers, and other stakeholders in their development and application of management practices aimed at maximizing crop yields and minimizing economic losses. &#xa9; 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid36792419, year = {2023}, author = {Cockrell, HC and Hansen, EE and Gow, K and Fecteau, A and Greenberg, SLM}, title = {The intersection of pediatric surgery, climate change, and equity.}, journal = {Journal of pediatric surgery}, volume = {58}, number = {5}, pages = {943-948}, doi = {10.1016/j.jpedsurg.2023.01.017}, pmid = {36792419}, issn = {1531-5037}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Specialties, Surgical ; }, abstract = {Climate change is occurring at an unprecedented rate. Recent years have seen heatwaves, wildfires, floods, droughts, and re-emerging infectious diseases fueled by global warming. Global warming has also increased the frequency and severity of surgical disease, particularly for children, who bear an estimated 88% of the global burden of disease attributable to climate change. Health care delivery itself weighs heavily on the environment, accounting for nearly 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Within the health care sector, surgery and anesthesia are particularly carbon intensive. The surgical community must prioritize the intersection of climate change and pediatric surgery in order to address pediatric surgical disease on a global scale, while reducing the climate impact of surgical care delivery. This review defines the current state of climate change and its effects on pediatric surgical disease, discusses climate justice, and outlines actions to reduce the climate impact of surgical services. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level V.}, }
@article {pmid36791106, year = {2023}, author = {Brodie, JF and Watson, JEM}, title = {Human responses to climate change will likely determine the fate of biodiversity.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {8}, pages = {e2205512120}, pmid = {36791106}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; Ecosystem ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, }
@article {pmid36791074, year = {2023}, author = {Gregersen, T and Doran, R and Böhm, G and Pfister, HR}, title = {Expected climate change consequences and their role in explaining individual risk judgments.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {e0281258}, pmid = {36791074}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Male ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Judgment ; Environmental Pollution ; Europe ; France ; }, abstract = {This study examines what individuals expect will be the most important impacts of climate change on their respective countries, and how these expectations relate to individual risk judgments. Open-ended responses from representative samples in four European countries (each n > 1000), were sorted into six categories: expectations of climate change leading to changes in attitudes and goals, human activities, emissions and pollution, environmental changes, impacts on humans, or few or no impacts. The results showed that the most frequently mentioned climate change impacts were related to environmental changes. Although most results were consistent across the UK, Norway, Germany, and France, some differences were identified. For example, respondents in the UK and Norway more frequently mentioned changes in human actions and activities among the most important climate change impacts. We also found differences between demographic groups; men, those in the oldest age groups, and those placing themselves further right on the political spectrum were more likely to expect few or no consequences of climate change on their country. Additional analyses examined relationships between the six impact categories and two different measures of individual risk judgments. Those expecting climate change to lead to changes in attitudes and goals, environmental changes, or impacts on humans reported higher levels of worry about climate change and expected more negative effects on their country. Climate change worry, but not the evaluation of how positive or negative effects will be on one's country, was further related to the number of consequences mentioned in response to the open-ended question and the specificity conveyed.}, }
@article {pmid36790303, year = {2023}, author = {Sokolova, IM}, title = {Ectotherm mitochondrial economy and responses to global warming.}, journal = {Acta physiologica (Oxford, England)}, volume = {237}, number = {4}, pages = {e13950}, doi = {10.1111/apha.13950}, pmid = {36790303}, issn = {1748-1716}, mesh = {Reactive Oxygen Species/metabolism ; *Global Warming ; *Mitochondria/metabolism ; Energy Metabolism/physiology ; Adenosine Triphosphate/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Temperature is a key abiotic factor affecting ecology, biogeography, and evolution of species. Alterations of energy metabolism play an important role in adaptations and plastic responses to temperature shifts on different time scales. Mitochondrial metabolism affects cellular bioenergetics and redox balance making these organelles an important determinant of organismal performances such as growth, locomotion, or development. Here I analyze the impacts of environmental temperature on the mitochondrial functions (including oxidative phosphorylation, proton leak, production of reactive oxygen species(ROS), and ATP synthesis) of ectotherms and discuss the mechanisms underlying negative shifts in the mitochondrial energy economy caused by supraoptimal temperatures. Owing to the differences in the thermal sensitivity of different mitochondrial processes, elevated temperatures (beyond the species- and population-specific optimal range) cause reallocation of the electron flux and the protonmotive force (Δp) in a way that decreases ATP synthesis efficiency, elevates the relative cost of the mitochondrial maintenance, causes excessive production of ROS and raises energy cost for antioxidant defense. These shifts in the mitochondrial energy economy might have negative consequences for the organismal fitness traits such as the thermal tolerance or growth. Correlation between the thermal sensitivity indices of the mitochondria and the whole organism indicate that these traits experience similar selective pressures but further investigations are needed to establish whether there is a cause-effect relationship between the mitochondrial failure and loss of organismal performance during temperature change.}, }
@article {pmid36789726, year = {2023}, author = {Hodapp, D and Roca, IT and Fiorentino, D and Garilao, C and Kaschner, K and Kesner-Reyes, K and Schneider, B and Segschneider, J and Kocsis, &#xc1;T and Kiessling, W and Brey, T and Froese, R}, title = {Climate change disrupts core habitats of marine species.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {3304-3317}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16612}, pmid = {36789726}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//German Federal Agency of Nature Conservation (BfN)/ ; //Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Food Chain ; }, abstract = {Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of >33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO2 emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.}, }
@article {pmid36788932, year = {2023}, author = {Fila, D and Fünfgeld, H and Dahlmann, H}, title = {Climate change adaptation with limited resources: adaptive capacity and action in small- and medium-sized municipalities.}, journal = {Environment, development and sustainability}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-21}, pmid = {36788932}, issn = {1573-2975}, abstract = {Administrations in small- and medium-sized municipalities (SMM) are confronted with the impacts of climate change while having inadequate resources to adapt. In order to establish the current state of research on climate change adaptation in SMM, a systematic literature review was conducted. Using reported SMM adaptation in the peer-reviewed literature as our data base, we documented 115 adaptation initiatives between 2015 and 2021 matching our criteria, with substantial geographical and thematic differences. The qualitative analysis of highly relevant articles has shown that the specific understanding about the challenges and barriers of climate change adaptation in SMM remains limited. We highlight recent key trends and challenges and conclude by offering a refined research agenda for addressing identified knowledge gaps as well as key barriers in relation to SMM adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid36787064, year = {2023}, author = {Usman, M and Ali, A and Bashir, MK and Baig, SA and Mushtaq, K and Abbas, A and Akram, R and Iqbal, MS}, title = {Modelling wellbeing of farmers by using nexus of climate change risk perception, adaptation strategies, and their drivers on irrigation water in Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {17}, pages = {49930-49947}, pmid = {36787064}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; *Farmers ; *Climate Change ; Pakistan ; Farms ; Agriculture ; Perception ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to determine the farmers' perceived impact of climate change on irrigation water and the adaptation measure adopted to mitigate its adverse effects. A binary logistic regression model was used to identified factors affecting the selection of adaptation measures. Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) was employed to compute the benefits of adaptation strategies. The study was conducted in two major cropping systems, i.e., the Cotton Wheat Cropping System (CWCS) and Rice Wheat Cropping System (RWCS) of Punjab, Pakistan, using primary data of 1080 farmers collected through a multistage sampling technique. Due to climate change there was deterioration in surface water and groundwater quality in CWCS than in RWCS. The farmer uses different adaptation strategies like water harvesting, crop diversification, increasing use of irrigation, laser land leveling to save water, making ridges, building a water harvesting scheme, changing irrigation time, high-efficiency irrigation system and water-saving technologies. Adaptation strategies used by farmer were affected by different socioeconomic, demographic and agronomic factors. Results of the binary logistic regression showed that age, farming experience, education, household size, farm size, tenancy status of owner, access to farm credit, information on weather forecasting, soil quality, tube well ownership, remittances, off-farm income, agricultural extension services provided for irrigation water, and information on climatic and natural hazards played a significant role in the selection of adaptation strategies for irrigation water. Results of PLS-SEM showed that adaptation strategies mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on irrigation water. Farmers' awareness regarding the impact of climatic variability on irrigation water should be enhanced. Availability of credit to farmers should be improved on easy terms to facilitate the adoption of interventions for better irrigation water management. It is high time for policymakers to design effective, affordable, and workable policies to mitigate climate change vulnerabilities against irrigation water to improve the wellbeing of the farmers.}, }
@article {pmid36781961, year = {2023}, author = {Mitchell Crow, J}, title = {Searching the ocean for secrets to help fight climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {614}, number = {7948}, pages = {586}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-00404-7}, pmid = {36781961}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Oceans and Seas ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; Geologic Sediments ; }, }
@article {pmid36781882, year = {2023}, author = {Irwandi, H and Rosid, MS and Mart, T}, title = {Effects of Climate change on temperature and precipitation in the Lake Toba region, Indonesia, based on ERA5-land data with quantile mapping bias correction.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {2542}, pmid = {36781882}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {NKB-281/UN2.RST/HKP.05.00/2022//PUTI Pascasarjana 2022 grant/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a serious problem that can cause global variations in temperature and rainfall patterns. This global variation can affect the water availability of lakes. In this study, trends in temperature and rainfall in the Lake Toba area for 40 years (1981-2020) were analyzed using ERA5-Land data corrected with observation station data utilizing the quantile mapping bias correction method. Corrected ERA5-Land data were used in this study to show spatial patterns and trends. The Mann-Kendall and Sen slope tests were carried out to see the magnitude of the trend. A comparison of temperature and rainfall against their baseline period (1951-1980) was also investigated. The results of this study show that climate change has affected the trend of increasing temperature and rainfall in the Lake Toba area, with an increase in temperature of 0.006 °C per year and an average rainfall of 0.71 mm per year. In general, significant changes in the increase of temperature and rainfall occurred in the last decade, with an increase in temperature of 0.24 °C and rainfall of 22%. The study of the impact of climate change expected to be useful for policymakers in managing water resources in the Lake Toba area.}, }
@article {pmid36778933, year = {2022}, author = {Ellwanger, JH and Chies, JAB}, title = {Candida auris emergence as a consequence of climate change: Impacts on Americas and the need to contain greenhouse gas emissions.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {100250}, pmid = {36778933}, issn = {2667-193X}, }
@article {pmid36778704, year = {2023}, author = {Broccanello, C and Bellin, D and DalCorso, G and Furini, A and Taranto, F}, title = {Genetic approaches to exploit landraces for improvement of Triticum turgidum ssp. durum in the age of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1101271}, pmid = {36778704}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Addressing the challenges of climate change and durum wheat production is becoming an important driver for food and nutrition security in the Mediterranean area, where are located the major producing countries (Italy, Spain, France, Greece, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Turkey, and Syria). One of the emergent strategies, to cope with durum wheat adaptation, is the exploration and exploitation of the existing genetic variability in landrace populations. In this context, this review aims to highlight the important role of durum wheat landraces as a useful genetic resource to improve the sustainability of Mediterranean agroecosystems, with a focus on adaptation to environmental stresses. We described the most recent molecular techniques and statistical approaches suitable for the identification of beneficial genes/alleles related to the most important traits in landraces and the development of molecular markers for marker-assisted selection. Finally, we outline the state of the art about landraces genetic diversity and signature of selection, already identified from these accessions, for adaptability to the environment.}, }
@article {pmid36778687, year = {2023}, author = {Marigliano, LE and Yu, R and Torres, N and Medina-Plaza, C and Oberholster, A and Kurtural, SK}, title = {Overhead photoselective shade films mitigate effects of climate change by arresting flavonoid and aroma composition degradation in wine.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1085939}, pmid = {36778687}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Overhead photoselective shade films installed in vineyards improve berry composition in hot grape-growing regions. The aim of the study was to evaluate the flavonoid and aroma profiles and composition of wines from Cabernet Sauvignon grapes (Vitis vinifera L.) treated with partial solar radiation exclusion.<br><br>METHODS: Experimental design consisted in a randomized experiment with four shade films (D1, D3, D4, D5) with differing solar radiation spectra transmittance and compared to an uncovered control (C0) performed over two seasons (2021 and 2022) in Oakville (CA, USA). Berries were collected by hand at harvest and individual vinifications for each treatment and season were conducted in triplicates. Then, wine chemical composition, flavonoid and aromatic profiles were analyzed.<br><br>RESULTS: The wines from D4 treatment had greater color intensity and total phenolic index due to co-pigmentation with anthocyanins. Shade film wines D5 and D1 from the 2020 vintage demonstrated increased total anthocyanins in the hotter of the two experimental years. In 2021, reduced cluster temperatures optimized total anthocyanins in D4 wines. Reduced cluster temperatures modulated anthocyanin acylation, methylation and hydroxylation in shade film wines. Volatile aroma composition was analyzed using gas chromatography mass spectroscopy (GCMS) and D4 wines exhibited a more fruity and pleasant aroma profile than C0 wines.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Results provided evidence that partial solar radiation exclusion in the vineyard using overhead shade films directly improved flavonoid and aroma profiles of resultant wines under hot vintage conditions, providing a tool for combatting air temperatures and warmer growing conditions associated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36778685, year = {2023}, author = {Shen, M and Cai, C and Song, L and Qiu, J and Ma, C and Wang, D and Gu, X and Yang, X and Wei, W and Tao, Y and Zhang, J and Liu, G and Zhu, C}, title = {Elevated CO2 and temperature under future climate change increase severity of rice sheath blight.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1115614}, pmid = {36778685}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Sheath blight (ShB), caused by Rhizoctonia solani, is one of the major threats to rice (Oryza sativa L.) production. However, it is not clear how the risk of rice ShB will respond to elevated CO2 and temperature under future climate change. Here, we conducted, field experiments of inoculated R. solani under combinations of two CO2 levels (ambient and enriched up to 590 μmol mol[-1]) and two temperature levels (ambient and increased by 2.0°C) in temperature by free-air CO2 enrichment (T-FACE) system for two cultivars (a susceptible cultivar, Lemont and a resistant cultivar, YSBR1). Results indicate that for the inoculation of plants with R. solani, the vertical length of ShB lesions for cv. Lemont was significantly longer than that for cv. YSBR1 under four CO2 and temperature treatments. The vertical length of ShB lesions was significantly increased by elevated temperature, but not by elevated CO2, for both cultivars. The vertical length of ShB lesions under the combination of elevated CO2 and elevated temperature was increased by 21-38% for cv. Lemont and by -1-6% for cv. YSBR1. A significant increase in MDA level was related to a significant increase in the vertical length of ShB lesions under the combination of elevated CO2 and elevated temperature. Elevated CO2 could not compensate for the negative effect of elevated temperature on yield of both cultivars under future climate change. Rice yield and biomass were further decreased by 2.0-2.5% and 2.9-4.2% by an increase in the severity of ShB under the combination of elevated CO2 and elevated temperature. Thus, reasonable agronomic management practices are required to improve both resistance to ShB disease and grain yield for rice under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36778535, year = {2023}, author = {Watts, T and Brugger, SO}, title = {The intersection between climate change, COVID-19, and future pandemics - Perspectives among American transportation network drivers.}, journal = {Journal of transport &amp; health}, volume = {30}, number = {}, pages = {101582}, pmid = {36778535}, issn = {2214-1405}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Drivers of Transportation Network Companies (TNC) are an essential workforce that is affected by extreme weather events and high exposure risk to airborne infectious diseases due to their proximity with customers. The purpose of this study was to understand TNC drivers' professional experience during the COVID-19 pandemic and their opinions about climate change and the development of future pandemics.<br><br>METHODS: Open- and closed-ended responses were collected during TNC rides and analyzed with content analysis and descriptive statistics.<br><br>RESULTS: We found more participants believed in the COVID-19 pandemic compared to participants who believed in climate change. Overall, participants were less concerned about COVID-19 than climate change. However, several participants felt that the pandemic had a positive impact on the climate system, specifically by reducing air pollution from traffic. Few participants felt that climate change could lead to the development of future pandemics.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The TNC essential workforce could be integral for identifying transportation and public health sectors solutions for addressing the occupational health needs of an essential workforce, and response to climate change and pandemics.}, }
@article {pmid36778073, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Adawy, ME and Sidib, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Lancet regional health. Americas}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {100386}, pmid = {36778073}, issn = {2667-193X}, }
@article {pmid36777765, year = {2022}, author = {Campbell, E and Uppalapati, SS and Kotcher, J and Maibach, E}, title = {Communication research to improve engagement with climate change and human health: A review.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1086858}, pmid = {36777765}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Interdisciplinary Communication ; *Air Pollution ; Communication ; Fossil Fuels ; }, abstract = {Because of the world's dependence on fossil fuels, climate change and air pollution are profoundly harming both human and planetary health. Fortunately, climate solutions are also health solutions, and they present both local and global opportunities to foster cleaner, healthier, and safer communities. In this review, we briefly discuss the human health harms of climate change, climate and health solutions, and provide a thorough synthesis of social science research on climate and health communication. Through our review, we found that social science research provides an evidence-based foundation for messaging strategies that can build public and political will for climate and health solutions. Specifically, messages that convey the health harms of climate change and highlight the health benefits of climate solutions may be especially effective in building this public and political will. We also found that health professionals are trusted sources of information about climate change, and many have shown interest in engaging with the public and policymakers about the health relevance of climate change and clean energy. Together, the alignment between message strategies and the interest of highly trusted messengers strongly suggests the potential of health students and health professionals to create the conditions necessary to address climate change as a public health imperative. Therefore, our review serves as a resource for those interested in communicating about climate change and health and suggests that social scientists can continue to support practitioners with research and advice on the most effective communication strategies.}, }
@article {pmid36777712, year = {2023}, author = {Muralidhar, M and Srikanth, AS and Pinmangkorn, S and Santosh, M and Milos, J}, title = {Role of Superconducting Materials in the Endeavor to Stop Climate Change and Reach Sustainable Development.}, journal = {Journal of superconductivity and novel magnetism}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {803-812}, pmid = {36777712}, issn = {1557-1939}, abstract = {Progress in the mass production of newly developed bulk (Gd0.33Y0.13Er0.53)Ba2Cu3Oy "(Gd,Y,Er)123" and MgB2 systems is presented. Two batches of (Gd,Y,Er)123 pellets of 20 mm diameter and 7 mm thick were prepared in air by an infiltration growth "IG" process. Trapped field distribution profiles of fully grown bulk samples clearly showed that all samples were single-grain and the trapped field values were more than 0.5 T at 77 K, 1.3 mm above top surface. The best bulk exhibited the trapped field value of 0.63 T at 77 K. Ultra-sonication technique was employed for refining precursors of both (Gd,Y,Er)211 and boron. TEM studies revealed that boron powder subjected to ultrasonication was refined up to nanoscale. The micron-sized particles were reduced to nanoscale, which led to improvement of critical current by up to 36% in bulk MgB2 at 20 K and self-field. This progress in fabrication of high-performance LREBa2Cu3Oy and MgB2 superconducting bulks further promotes commercialization of superconductors' production as a mode of sustainable technology.}, }
@article {pmid36777420, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Crohn's &amp; colitis 360}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {otac037}, pmid = {36777420}, issn = {2631-827X}, }
@article {pmid36777085, year = {2022}, author = {Latkin, C and Dayton, L and Scherkoske, M and Countess, K and Thrul, J}, title = {What predicts climate change activism?: An examination of how depressive symptoms, climate change distress, and social norms are associated with climate change activism.}, journal = {The journal of climate change and health}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {36777085}, issn = {2667-2782}, support = {R01 DA050470/DA/NIDA NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The current and future harms caused by climate change are highly distressing. Different theoretical models suggest diverse impacts of distress on behavior. We examined how psychological distress, climate change distress, and social norms may foster or impede climate change activism.<br><br>METHODS: As part of an ongoing online longitudinal study in the US beginning in March 2020, respondents were assessed on their depressive symptoms (CES-D 10), climate change distress, climate change mitigation social norms, and six outcomes of the climate change activism behaviors of writing letters, e-mailing, or phoning government officials; voting for candidates who support measures to reduce climate change; signing petitions; volunteering with organizations; donating money to organizations; and attending protests.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 775 respondents, 53% were female, 72% white, 12% Black, 7% Hispanic, and 6% Asian. Climate change social norms predicted all six climate change actions in the bivariate and multivariable cross-sectional logistic regression models. A similar finding was observed with the brief climate change distress scale (BCCDS), except it was not associated with volunteering in the multivariable model. Depressive symptoms were associated with greater odds of contacting government officials and signing petitions in the bivariate models but did not retain significance in the multivariable models. Longitudinal models indicated a weak association between depressive symptoms and climate change activism.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change distress and social norms are positively associated with climate change activism. Although climate change distress may not usually impede climate change activism, organizations addressing climate change should consider providing social support to members and assisting those with high levels of psychological and climate change distress. Social norms around climate change activism should be fostered.}, }
@article {pmid36774776, year = {2023}, author = {Aledo-Serrano, A and Battaglia, G and Blenkinsop, S and Delanty, N and Elbendary, HM and Eyal, S and Guekht, A and Gulcebi, MI and Henshall, DC and Hildebrand, MS and Macrohon, B and Madaan, P and Mifsud, J and Mills, JD and Neill, KH and Romagnolo, A and Vezzani, A and Sisodiya, SM}, title = {Taking action on climate change: Testimonials and position statement from the International League Against Epilepsy Climate Change Commission.}, journal = {Seizure}, volume = {106}, number = {}, pages = {68-75}, doi = {10.1016/j.seizure.2023.02.003}, pmid = {36774776}, issn = {1532-2688}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Epilepsy/therapy ; Seizures ; }, abstract = {The release of the 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report makes clear that human activities have resulted in significant alterations in global climate. There is no doubt that climate change is upon us; chronic global warming has been punctuated by more frequent extreme weather events. Humanity will have to mitigate climate change and adapt to these changing conditions or face dire consequences. One under-appreciated aspect of this global crisis is its impact on healthcare, particularly people with epilepsy and temperature-sensitive seizures. As members of the inaugural International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) Climate Change Commission, we recount the personal motivations that have led each team member to decide to take action, in the hope that our journeys as ordinary clinicians and scientists will help persuade others that they too can act to foster change within their spheres of influence.}, }
@article {pmid36774753, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, M and Liu, M and Zhang, D and Qi, J and Fu, W and Zhang, Y and Rao, Q and Bakhshipour, AE and Tan, SK}, title = {Assessing and optimizing the hydrological performance of Grey-Green infrastructure systems in response to climate change and non-stationary time series.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {232}, number = {}, pages = {119720}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.119720}, pmid = {36774753}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Time Factors ; *Rain ; Cities ; China ; }, abstract = {Climate change has led to the increased intensity and frequency of extreme meteorological events, threatening the drainage capacity in urban catchments and densely built-up cities. To alleviate urban flooding disasters, strategies coupled with green and grey infrastructure have been proposed to support urban stormwater management. However, most strategies rely largely on diachronic rainfall data and ignore long-term climate change impacts. This study described a novel framework to assess and to identify the optimal solution in response to uncertainties following climate change. The assessment framework consists of three components: (1) assess and process climate data to generate long-term time series of meteorological parameters under different climate conditions; (2) optimise the design of Grey-Green infrastructure systems to establish the optimal design solutions; and (3) perform a multi-criteria assessment of economic and hydrological performance to support decision-making. A case study in Guangzhou, China was carried out to demonstrate the usability and application processes of the framework. The results of the case study illustrated that the optimised Grey-Green infrastructure could save life cycle costs and reduce total outflow (56-66%), peak flow (22-85%), and TSS (more than 60%) compared to the fully centralised grey infrastructure system, indicating its high superior in economic competitiveness and hydrological performance under climate uncertainties. In terms of spatial configuration, the contribution of green infrastructure appeared not as critical as the adoption of decentralisation of the drainage networks. Furthermore, under extreme drought scenarios, the decentralised infrastructure system exhibited an exceptionally high degree of removal performance for non-point source pollutants.}, }
@article {pmid36773915, year = {2023}, author = {Dong, H and Erdenegerel, A and Hou, X and Ding, W and Bai, H and Han, C}, title = {Herders' adaptation strategies and animal husbandry development under climate change: A panel data analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {872}, number = {}, pages = {162144}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162144}, pmid = {36773915}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Animal Husbandry ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Droughts ; Acclimatization ; Livestock ; }, abstract = {The frequent occurrence of extreme climate events has become an indisputable fact. However, the role of adaptation to extreme climate change in the development of livestock husbandry is still insufficiently understood. This study empirically analyzed the impact of herders' adaptation strategies to extreme drought on livestock husbandry development and aimed to explore the optimal grassland management path under continuous climate change. A panel dataset of surveyed herders from the Xilingol League, a traditional pastoral area in China, was used. The results indicated that the average frequency of extreme drought in the Xilingol League from 1980 to 2020 was 4.94 months/year, and the occurrence of extreme drought showed a slightly upward trend. The average technical efficiency of livestock husbandry was 0.721, which can still be improved. Hay purchases can effectively promote livestock technical efficiency (p<0.01) and is the main adaptation strategy of herders to extreme drought. Further analysis showed that non-farming and pastoral employment has a positive regulatory effect in the impact of purchased hay on livestock technical efficiency. The results of this study deepen the understanding of effective adaptation to extreme weather events in pastoral areas due to climate change and provide useful information to policymakers engaged in grassland management.}, }
@article {pmid36773906, year = {2023}, author = {Santurtún, A and Shaman, J}, title = {Work accidents, climate change and COVID-19.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {871}, number = {}, pages = {162129}, pmid = {36773906}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Pandemics ; *Occupational Health ; Accidents ; }, abstract = {The effects brought by climate change and the pandemic upon worker health and wellbeing are varied and necessitate the identification and implementation of improved strategic interventions. This review aims, firstly, to assess how climate change affects occupational accidents, focusing on the impacts of extreme air temperatures and natural disasters; and, secondly, to analyze the role of the pandemic in this context. Our results show that the manifestations of climate change affect workers physically while on the job, psychologically, and by modifying the work environment and conditions; all these factors can cause stress, in turn increasing the risk of suffering a work accident. There is no consensus on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on work accidents; however, an increase in adverse mental effects on workers in contact with the public (specifically in healthcare) has been described. It has also been shown that this strain affects the risk of suffering an accident. During the pandemic, many people began to work remotely, and what initially appeared to be a provisional situation has been made permanent or semi-permanent in some positions and companies. However, we found no studies evaluating the working conditions of those who telework. In relation to the combined impact of climate change and the pandemic on occupational health, only publications focusing on the synergistic effect of heat due to the obligation to wear COVID-19-specific PPE, either outdoors or in poorly acclimatized indoor environments, were found. It is essential that preventive services establish new measures, train workers, and determine new priorities for adapting working conditions to these altered circumstances.}, }
@article {pmid36771640, year = {2023}, author = {Pantović, JP and Božović, DP and Sabovljević, MS}, title = {Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Occurrence and Distribution of the Rare Moss Buxbaumia viridis in Serbia (SE Europe).}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36771640}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {The distribution range and occurrence of the rare and threatened epixylic moss Buxbaumia viridis have been reviewed in Serbia. Climatic conditions of its recent distribution in Serbia were involved in species distribution modeling and analyzed with the aim of obtaining a projection of unknown potential sites and future scenarios of its distribution dynamics. The results achieved suggest potential distribution range of the species will be significantly reduced. According to the climate change models, the habitat changes including the range loss of this species are predicted to be drastic, i.e., between 93% and 97% by the year 2050, and between 98% and 99.9% by the year 2070, affecting primarily lower elevations of its current range in Serbia. A major reason for the projected decline of the species is climate change combined with continued poor forest management.}, }
@article {pmid36771581, year = {2023}, author = {Rumler, R and Bender, D and Schoenlechner, R}, title = {Mitigating the Effect of Climate Change within the Cereal Sector: Improving Rheological and Baking Properties of Strong Gluten Wheat Doughs by Blending with Specialty Grains.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36771581}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {885549//Austrian Research Promotion Agency/ ; }, abstract = {Due to the effect of climate change, wheat flour qualities with extremely high dough extensibility or dough strength are becoming more common, which impairs the production of selected wheat products such as pastries. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of sorghum, millet, amaranth, or buckwheat addition to such a strong gluten common wheat flour (Triticum aestivum) on its rheological and baking properties. Raw materials were analyzed chemically (ash, protein, fat, starch, total dietary fiber) and physically (water absorption index, water solubility index, and pasting properties). Selected rheological analyses (Farinograph® and Extensograph[®]) were carried out on wheat blends, including up to 30% alternative grains. The baking properties of the blends were evaluated on standard bread and sweet milk bread recipes. Results showed that low amounts (5%) of sorghum and millet improved the dough stability of the high-gluten wheat flour. For optimum dough extensibility, additions of 30% sorghum, 15% millet, or 20% amaranth were needed. The use of gluten-free grains increased bread volume and decreased crumb firmness of the sweet milk breads when added at lower levels (5-15%, depending on the grain). In conclusion, cereal blending is a supportive tool to mitigate the effects of ongoing climate change and can enhance biodiversity and nutrition.}, }
@article {pmid36768054, year = {2023}, author = {Kocur-Bera, K and Czyża, S}, title = {Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Areas in the Context of Green Energy Development-A Study of the Great Masurian Lakes Mesoregion.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36768054}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Lakes/analysis ; Renewable Energy ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {Green energy production has become a common and recognized method of electricity generation. Giving up reliance on non-renewable energy sources is an important trend in the economies of many countries. The paper presents an analysis of the impact of indicators like increased green energy production on the level of vulnerability to climate change. The model of the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (VCC) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (considering three aspects: exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity of the studied spatial unit/society) was applied. Sensitivity analysis, spatial heterogeneity, and temporal dynamics of indicators characterizing changes in electricity consumption, renewable energy production, greenhouse gas emissions, and variability of financial losses due to extreme weather events and their number were implemented. Several findings arose. First, the vulnerability to climate change (the level of the VCC index), does not decrease after the implementation of a single action, like the development of green energy production. The level of index of vulnerability to climate change (VCC1) from the reference year (2017) relative to VCC2 (2021) has changed slightly, despite the development of RES. The variation does not exceed a 1% reduction in the value of the VCC1 index. Second, the decrease in the level of the vulnerability requires global, coordinated action. The value of the VCC3 index, reflecting, including changes in green energy production (X15), electricity consumption/inhabitant (X38), and green-house gas emissions (X14), exhibited more favorably the impact of these indicators on vulnerability to climate change, compared to the VCC1 reference value. In eleven poviats, the VCC3 index decreased between 1 and 4%. In seven of these poviats, green energy production increased, resulting in an average 10% decrease in the X15 indicator, the X14 indicator representing green-house gas emissions decreased by an average of 7%, while the X38 indicator describing electricity consumption/per capita decreased by an average of 16%. Third, harmonized and inclusive action by the population holds the potential to be the clue to reducing vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36768006, year = {2023}, author = {Ishiwatari, M and Sasaki, D}, title = {Special Issue "Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: An Interdisciplinary Approach".}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36768006}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Acclimatization ; Sustainable Development ; Risk Reduction Behavior ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {The UN member states adopted three international agreements for the post-2015 agenda: the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development [...].}, }
@article {pmid36767843, year = {2023}, author = {Chau, JY and Dharmayani, PNA and Little, H}, title = {Navigating Neighbourhood Opposition and Climate Change: Feasibility and Acceptability of a Play Street Pilot in Sydney, Australia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36767843}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; Child ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; *Climate Change ; Feasibility Studies ; *COVID-19 ; Communicable Disease Control ; Australia ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Play Streets are community-led initiatives that provide opportunities for outdoor play and recreation when parks or other facilities may not be easily accessible. This pragmatic evaluation aims to determine the feasibility and acceptability of a pilot Play Street in Inner West Sydney.<br><br>METHODS: We used a post-only mixed methods design. Brief intercept surveys with pilot Play Street visitors assessed their reasons for attending the event and perceptions thereof. Semi-structured interviews explored stakeholders' experiences related to planning and implementing Play Streets.<br><br>RESULTS: Approximately 60 adults and children attended the pilot Play Street. The majority of survey respondents (n = 32) were female, aged 35-54, lived in the Play Street's postcode, and visited in groups consisting of adults and children. Overall respondents rated the pilot positively in enjoyment (100%), safety (97%), and organisation (81%), although there were significant differences between certain demographic subgroups in the perception of organisation and the children's enjoyment of the pilot Play Street. Stakeholder interviews (n = 2) highlighted the importance of community consultation and reaching compromises, noting concerns about safety and insurance costs, and emphasised the role of Council as a facilitator to help residents take ownership of Play Streets. Delays due to community concerns, poor air quality arising from bushfires, heavy rain on the event day, and COVID-19 lockdowns hindered pilot Play Street implementation and evaluation.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This pilot demonstrated that Play Streets are a feasible and acceptable way to use streets as outdoor recreation spaces in Sydney's Inner West. The evaluation highlights two elements for future sustainability: managing neighbourhood opposition and adapting to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36767836, year = {2023}, author = {He, J and Xie, X and Luo, F and Zhong, Y and Wang, T}, title = {The Effectiveness of Local Governments' Policies in Response to Climate Change: An Evaluation of Structure Planning in Arden, Melbourne.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36767836}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Cities ; *Local Government ; *Climate Change ; Sustainable Growth ; Policy ; }, abstract = {It is widely acknowledged that climate change has caused serious environmental issues, including drought, bushfires, floods, and heatwaves, and urban sustainability is currently seriously threatened as a result. Arden is one of the key urban regeneration areas set to experience dramatic residential changes under Melbourne's development blueprint within the next 20 years. The Arden Structure Plan (2022) outlines specific implementation steps but does not go into detail about the strategies and tactics used to address climate change and urban sustainability. Therefore, there are still problems with the plan, including a lack of information and time-bound development targets, ambiguous public engagement, little focus on urban crime, and insufficient climate change adaptation measures. The plan also considers affordable housing, a mixed-use development pattern that will significantly decrease environmental harm, and active transportation options, primarily walking and bicycling. Considering climate change, this plan will make Arden a suitable location for population growth. This paper aims to evaluate the Arden Structure Plan and make recommendations on how to improve the plan's urban sustainability and climate change considerations. Furthermore, it provides guidance on whether Arden is a suitable location for Melbourne's population growth in light of the climate change impacts anticipated to occur by 2100.}, }
@article {pmid36767546, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, J and Qi, Y and Yang, R and Ma, X and Zhang, J and Qi, W and Guo, Q and Wang, H}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use/Cover Change on the Net Primary Productivity of Vegetation in the Qinghai Lake Basin.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36767546}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Lakes ; Tibet ; China ; }, abstract = {The Qinghai Lake Basin acts as a natural barrier, preventing the western desert from spreading eastward. This is an important link in preserving the ecological stability of the northeastern region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Therefore, quantitative research into the net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation and its driving force in the Qinghai Lake Basin is required. The effects of land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change on NPP in the Qinghai Lake Basin were studied using R-contribution ratio and partial correlation analysis methods using MOD17A3H products, Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) data, and meteorological data. (1) The LULC of the Qinghai Lake Basin showed a trend that "the area of grassland, cultivated land, and unused land continued to decrease, while the area of other LULC types increased" from 2000 to 2020, according to the study's findings. Grassland, water bodies, construction land, and unused land dominated the mutual transformation of LULC types. (2) The NPP of the basin showed a growing trend, with a growth rate of 3.93 gC·m[-2]·a[-1] before 2010 and 0.88 gC·m[-2]·a[-1] after 2010. Significant regional heterogeneity was found in NPP, with gradients decreasing from southeast to northwest. (3) The impact of LUCC on overall NPP changes had gradually increased. Climate change has been the primary driver of NPP changes in the Qinghai Lake Basin over the last 20 years.}, }
@article {pmid36767299, year = {2023}, author = {Shendell, DG and Black, LF and Way, Y and Aggarwal, J and Campbell, MLF and Nguyen, KT}, title = {Knowledge, Attitudes, and Awareness of New Jersey Public High School Students about Concepts of Climate Change, including Environmental Justice.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36767299}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; New Jersey ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Justice ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Pandemics ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; Schools ; Students ; }, abstract = {Increasing acknowledgement of climate change (CC) has encouraged various responses, such as education standard mandates. In 2021, New Jersey (NJ) became the first U.S. state to require K-12 CC education across subjects, effective fall 2022. This necessitated introductory science courses on CC to support high school (HS) curricula. Thus, NJ Safe Schools Program (NJSS) created a new course titled, "Introduction to HS Students to CC, Sustainability, and Environmental Justice (EJ)." Given that the COVID-19 pandemic continues (2020-2023 school years) and vaccination coverage varies, this course was developed and approved in an asynchronous online format. Its five modules cover environmental science, CC, natural disasters and extreme weather events, sustainability, including energy conservation and efficiency definitions, and EJ. A 20-question survey included at the end, modified/adapted from a larger nationwide U.S. Student Conservation Association (SCA) survey 2019-2020, examined the perspectives of HS students concerning CC. Selected volunteer NJ HS enlisted students (n = 82/128 finished) to pilot this course February-April 2022. Results such as average scores ≥90% suggested success regarding initial knowledge and awareness gained; for individual modules, two knowledge checks >80% and three knowledge checks >90%. The SCA survey results, overall and by region in NJ, highlighted how most students felt about CC and extreme weather events, plus issues such as EJ. This NJSS introductory course opened in July 2022 for NJ public county secondary school districts and comprehensive HS with approved career-technical education programs, and potentially elsewhere.}, }
@article {pmid36767114, year = {2023}, author = {Smith, JC and Whiley, H and Ross, KE}, title = {Climate Change and Health: Local Government Capacity for Health Protection in Australia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36767114}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Local Government ; *Disasters ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest global health threat of the 21st century, with numerous direct and indirect human health consequences. Local governments play a critical role in communities' response to climate change, both through strategies to reduce emissions and adaption plans to respond to changing climate and extreme weather events. Australian local government environmental health officers (EHOs) have the relevant skills and expertise to inform and develop adaptation plans for health protection in the context of climate change. This study used an online survey followed by phone interviews of local government management to determine the extent to which EHOs are involved in adaptation planning in health protection climate change plans. Questions were also asked to determine whether local councils are aware of EHOs' capability to contribute and to gauge the willingness of management to provide EHOs with the workload capacity to do so. The findings demonstrated that although climate adaptation and mitigation planning is occurring in local government, it is not including or considering the public health impacts on the community. Primarily, it was found that this oversight was due to a lack of awareness of the health impacts of climate change outside of a disaster or emergency scenario. Currently, EHOs are an untapped source of knowledge and skills that can contribute to climate change adaption planning. To support this, a framework of local environmental health practice was developed to assist the reconceptualization of the scope of practice required for the planning and response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36767043, year = {2023}, author = {Magnano San Lio, R and Favara, G and Maugeri, A and Barchitta, M and Agodi, A}, title = {How Antimicrobial Resistance Is Linked to Climate Change: An Overview of Two Intertwined Global Challenges.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36767043}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use/pharmacology ; Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; Climate Change ; Pandemics ; Plastics ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; *Anti-Infective Agents ; }, abstract = {Globally, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and climate change (CC) are two of the top health emergencies, and can be considered as two interlinked public health priorities. The complex commonalities between AMR and CC should be deeply investigated in a One Health perspective. Here, we provided an overview of the current knowledge about the relationship between AMR and CC. Overall, the studies included pointed out the need for applying a systemic approach to planetary health. Firstly, CC increasingly brings humans and animals into contact, leading to outbreaks of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases with pandemic potential. Although it is well-established that antimicrobial use in human, animal and environmental sectors is one of the main drivers of AMR, the COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating the current scenario, by influencing the use of antibiotics, personal protective equipment, and biocides. This also results in higher concentrations of contaminants (e.g., microplastics) in natural water bodies, which cannot be completely removed from wastewater treatment plants, and which could sustain the AMR spread. Our overview underlined the lack of studies on the direct relationship between AMR and CC, and encouraged further research to investigate the multiple aspects involved, and its effect on human health.}, }
@article {pmid36767030, year = {2023}, author = {Veenema, RJ and Hoepner, LA and Geer, LA}, title = {Climate Change-Related Environmental Exposures and Perinatal and Maternal Health Outcomes in the U.S.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36767030}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Infant, Newborn ; Pregnancy ; Humans ; Female ; United States/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Pregnancy Outcome/epidemiology ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Floods ; Outcome Assessment, Health Care ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: Climate change poses one of the greatest risks to human health as air pollution increases, surface temperatures rise, and extreme weather events become more frequent. Environmental exposures related to climate change have a disproportionate effect on pregnant women through influencing food and water security, civil conflicts, extreme weather events, and the spread of disease. Our research team sought to identify the current peer-reviewed research on the effects of climate change-related environmental exposures on perinatal and maternal health in the United States.<br><br>DESIGN AND METHODS: A systematic literature review of publications identified through a comprehensive search of the PubMed and Web of Science databases was conducted using a modified Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach. The initial search across both databases identified a combined total of 768 publications. We removed 126 duplicates and 1 quadruplet, and the remaining 639 publications were subjected to our pre-set inclusion and exclusion criteria. We excluded studies outside of the United States. A total of 39 studies met our inclusion criteria and were retained for thematic analysis.<br><br>FINDINGS: A total of 19 studies investigated the effect of either hot or cold temperature exposure on perinatal and maternal health outcomes. The effect of air pollution on perinatal outcomes was examined in five studies. A total of 19 studies evaluated the association between natural disasters (hurricanes, flash floods, and tropical cyclones) and perinatal and maternal health outcomes. High and low temperature extremes were found to negatively influence neonate and maternal health. Significant associations were found between air pollutant exposure and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Adverse pregnancy outcomes were linked to hurricanes, tropical cyclones, and flash floods.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review suggests that climate change-related environmental exposures, including extreme temperatures, air pollution, and natural disasters, are significantly associated with adverse perinatal and maternal health outcomes across the United States.}, }
@article {pmid36766342, year = {2023}, author = {van Hassel, F and Bovenkerk, B}, title = {How Should We Help Wild Animals Cope with Climate Change? The Case of the Iberian Lynx.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36766342}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Climate change and related shifts in weather conditions result in massive biodiversity declines and severe animal suffering. This article explores the measures that can be taken to decrease animal suffering and prevent species from going extinct. Taking the Iberian lynx as a case study, we assess the extent to which it is beneficial for animal welfare and species conservation to do nothing or reduce other threats, provide food or shelter, relocate the species via assisted migration, or bring the population into captivity. We argue that, given the Iberian lynx's non-invasive characteristics, assisted migration may be the best way to protect the species while ensuring animal welfare and protecting wildness and other ecosystem values.}, }
@article {pmid36766076, year = {2023}, author = {Pleadin, J and Kos, J and Radić, B and Vulić, A and Kudumija, N and Radović, R and Janić Hajnal, E and Mandić, A and Anić, M}, title = {Aflatoxins in Maize from Serbia and Croatia: Implications of Climate Change.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36766076}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {Aflatoxins (AFs) represent the most important mycotoxin group, whose presence in food and feed poses significant global health and economic issues. The occurrence of AFs in maize is a burning problem worldwide, mainly attributed to droughts. In recent years, Serbia and Croatia faced climate changes followed by a warming trend. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to estimate the influence of weather on AFs occurrence in maize from Serbia and Croatia in the 2018-2021 period. The results indicate that hot and dry weather witnessed in the year 2021 resulted in the highest prevalence of AFs in maize samples in both Serbia (84%) and Croatia (40%). In maize harvested in 2018-2020, AFs occurred in less than, or around, 10% of Serbian and 20% of Croatian samples. In order to conduct a comprehensive study on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of AFs in maize grown in these two countries, the results of available studies performed in the last thirteen years were searched for and discussed.}, }
@article {pmid36766065, year = {2023}, author = {Tang, L and Wu, A and Li, S and Tuerdimaimaiti, M and Zhang, G}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Grain: A Literature Review on What Is Happening, and How Should We Proceed?.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36766065}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {42077209//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {More than half of the people on Earth get their calories, proteins, and minerals from rice grains. Staple increases in the quantity and quality of rice grains are key to ending hunger and malnutrition. Rice production, however, is vulnerable to climate change, and the climate on Earth is becoming more fluctuating with the atmospheric change induced by human activities. As a result, the impacts of climate change on rice grain (ICCRG) have sparked widespread concern. In order to reveal the development and the trend in the study on the ICCRG, a bibliometric analysis was conducted. The results showed that both the model simulations and the field experiment-based observations, as reflected by APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) and free-air carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment, are of concern to researchers worldwide, especially in China, India, the United States, and Japan. Different types of warming include short-term, nighttime, soil and water, and canopy, and their interactions with other climate factors, such as CO2, or agronomic factors, such as nitrogen level, are also of concern to researchers. Spatiotemporal variations in changing weather and regional adaptations from developed and developing countries are challenging the evaluation of ICCRG from an economic perspective. In order to improve the efficacy of breeding adaptable cultivars and developing agronomic management, interdisciplinary studies integrating molecular biology, plant physiology, agronomy, food chemistry, ecology, and socioeconomics are needed.}, }
@article {pmid36765064, year = {2023}, author = {Kim, H and Lim, H and Kim, J and Roh, S}, title = {Propriety assessment model for life cycle operational global warming potential of apartment buildings in Korea using energy efficiency and energy effective area data.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {2420}, pmid = {36765064}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {NRF-2019R1C1C1010475//National Research Foundation of Korea/ ; NRF-2019R1C1C1010475//National Research Foundation of Korea/ ; }, abstract = {In response to global warming, researchers worldwide are actively investigating various techniques and institutional frameworks to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Despite numerous life cycle assessment (LCA) studies indicating that global warming effects due to lifetime energy consumption are the greatest in the building operation stage, the absence of a standard global warming potential (GWP) report based on building energy usage makes it difficult to examine realistic GWP reduction directions. In South Korea, energy data for numerous buildings were collected through the Building Energy Efficiency Certification (BEEC) for several years, with data from apartment buildings receiving the most attention. GWP emissions were evaluated using the data through Green Standard for Energy and Environmental Design LCA. Here, we developed a model for apartment buildings to assess mutual propriety for GWP emissions (E) and energy effective area ratio (RE) during building operation to support the reduction of GWP emissions caused by lifetime operational energy consumption resulting from planning and design. We collected apartment BEEC data and used them to calculate the energy effective area ratio and GWP emissions of each building, which were then classified by energy use and source. Linear regression analysis was performed between RE and E for each classification, and the derived regression equation was developed as a GWP assessment model for apartments. The applicability of the proposed model was examined through a case study, which confirmed that the model can be used to determine design directions for reducing GWP emissions for every energy in apartments.}, }
@article {pmid36765059, year = {2023}, author = {Song, S and Ding, Y and Li, W and Meng, Y and Zhou, J and Gou, R and Zhang, C and Ye, S and Saintilan, N and Krauss, KW and Crooks, S and Lv, S and Lin, G}, title = {Mangrove reforestation provides greater blue carbon benefit than afforestation for mitigating global climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {756}, pmid = {36765059}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Wetlands ; *Climate Change ; Carbon ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; }, abstract = {Significant efforts have been invested to restore mangrove forests worldwide through reforestation and afforestation. However, blue carbon benefit has not been compared between these two silvicultural pathways at the global scale. Here, we integrated results from direct field measurements of over 370 restoration sites around the world to show that mangrove reforestation (reestablishing mangroves where they previously colonized) had a greater carbon storage potential per hectare than afforestation (establishing mangroves where not previously mangrove). Greater carbon accumulation was mainly attributed to favorable intertidal positioning, higher nitrogen availability, and lower salinity at most reforestation sites. Reforestation of all physically feasible areas in the deforested mangrove regions of the world could promote the uptake of 671.5-688.8 Tg CO2-eq globally over a 40-year period, 60% more than afforesting the same global area on tidal flats (more marginal sites). Along with avoiding conflicts of habitat conversion, mangrove reforestation should be given priority when designing nature-based solutions for mitigating global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36765048, year = {2023}, author = {Pérez-Invernón, FJ and Gordillo-Vázquez, FJ and Huntrieser, H and Jöckel, P}, title = {Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {739}, pmid = {36765048}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {FJPI//Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung (Alexander von Humboldt Foundation)/ ; POSTDOC-21-0005//Consejer&#xed;a de Econom&#xed;a, Innovaci&#xf3;n, Ciencia y Empleo, Junta de Andaluc&#xed;a (Ministry of Economy, Innovation, Science and Employment, Government of Andalucia)/ ; 116517//"la Caixa" Foundation (Caixa Foundation)/ ; CEX2021-001131-S//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n (Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n)/ ; SEV-2017-0709//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n (Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n)/ ; PID2019-109269RB-C43//Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness | Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n (Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n)/ ; }, abstract = {Lightning is the main precursor of natural wildfires and Long-Continuing-Current (LCC) lightning flashes are proposed to be the main igniters of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW). Previous studies predict a change of the global occurrence rate and spatial pattern of total lightning. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of lightning-ignited wildfire occurrence to climate change is uncertain. Here, we investigate space-based measurements of LCC lightning associated with lightning ignitions and present LCC lightning projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP6.0 for the 2090s by applying a recent LCC lightning parameterization based on the updraft strength in thunderstorms. We find a 41% global increase of the LCC lightning flash rate. Increases are largest in South America, the western coast of North America, Central America, Australia, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Europe, while only regional variations are found in northern polar forests, where fire risk can affect permafrost soil carbon release. These results show that lightning schemes including LCC lightning are needed to project the occurrence of lightning-ignited wildfires under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36764535, year = {2023}, author = {Rafalska, A and Walkiewicz, A and Osborne, B and Klumpp, K and Bieganowski, A}, title = {Variation in methane uptake by grassland soils in the context of climate change - A review of effects and mechanisms.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {871}, number = {}, pages = {162127}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162127}, pmid = {36764535}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Grassland soils are climate-dependent ecosystems that have a significant greenhouse gas mitigating function through their ability to store large amounts of carbon (C). However, what is often not recognized is that they can also exhibit a high methane (CH4) uptake capacity that could be influenced by future increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and variations in temperature and water availability. While there is a wealth of information on C sequestration in grasslands there is less consensus on how climate change impacts on CH4 uptake or the underlying mechanisms involved. To address this, we assessed existing knowledge on the impact of climate change components on CH4 uptake by grassland soils. Increases in precipitation associated with soils with a high background soil moisture content generally resulted in a reduction in CH4 uptake or even net emissions, while the effect was opposite in soils with a relatively low background moisture content. Initially wet grasslands subject to the combined effects of warming and water deficits may absorb more CH4, mainly due to increased gas diffusivity. However, in the longer-term heat and drought stress may reduce the activity of methanotrophs when the mean soil moisture content is below the optimum for their survival. Enhanced plant productivity and growth under elevated CO2, increased soil moisture and changed nutrient concentrations, can differentially affect methanotrophic activity, which is often reduced by increasing N deposition. Our estimations showed that CH4 uptake in grassland soils can change from -57.7 % to +6.1 % by increased precipitation, from -37.3 % to +85.3 % by elevated temperatures, from +0.87 % to +92.4 % by decreased precipitation, and from -66.7 % to +27.3 % by elevated CO2. In conclusion, the analysis suggests that grasslands under the influence of warming and drought may absorb even more CH4, mainly because of reduced soil water contents and increased gas diffusivity.}, }
@article {pmid36762921, year = {2023}, author = {Saunders, NR and Habgood, MD}, title = {Misunderstanding of the contribution of climate change to inspired CO2 and acid-base balance in pregnant women: It is not a hazard to their offspring.}, journal = {The Journal of physiology}, volume = {601}, number = {5}, pages = {1037}, doi = {10.1113/JP284217}, pmid = {36762921}, issn = {1469-7793}, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Humans ; Female ; *Acid-Base Equilibrium ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Pregnant Women ; Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36762647, year = {2023}, author = {Cianconi, P and Hanife, B and Hirsch, D and Janiri, L}, title = {Is climate change affecting mental health of urban populations?.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychiatry}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {213-218}, pmid = {36762647}, issn = {1473-6578}, mesh = {Humans ; Adolescent ; Urban Population ; *Climate Change ; Cities ; *Mental Health ; Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this article, we outline an up-to-date overview of the climate change impact on mental health of urban population, conducted by searching the PubMed database for relevant studies published in the past 12-18 months, in English.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change is part of a larger systemic ecological problem in which human demands are exceeding the regenerative capacity of the biosphere. We are witnessing a 'climate chaos', a phase of instability and transformation, which is leading humans into a psychological condition of 'systemic insecurity' and a shared feeling of uncertainty. Currently, one of the places where our species is particularly exposed to climate change are cities, due to build-up in urban infrastructure, rapid and chaotic urbanization, high densities and recent rapid growth, social inequality, and 'heat island effect'.The impact of climate change on cities exposes vulnerable groups to the worse mental health consequences. These groups include the homelessness, slum dwellers for whom the 'neighbourhood effects' are being discussed, climate refugees and migrants, young people, and finally those who assist these people.<br><br>SUMMARY: In order to realize broader mental health prevention in cities exposed to climate change phenomena, public health approaches are needed. Institutions must avoid reinforcing inequalities among the more vulnerable groups or create new inequalities.}, }
@article {pmid36762175, year = {2022}, author = {Ling, Z and Shi, Z and Gu, S and Wang, T and Zhu, W and Feng, G}, title = {Corrigendum: Impact of climate change and rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) plantation expansion on reference evapotranspiration in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1092168}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2022.1092168}, pmid = {36762175}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2022.830519.].}, }
@article {pmid36762096, year = {2022}, author = {Loi, M and Logrieco, AF and Pusztahelyi, T and Leiter, &#xc9; and Hornok, L and Pócsi, I}, title = {Advanced mycotoxin control and decontamination techniques in view of an increased aflatoxin risk in Europe due to climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1085891}, pmid = {36762096}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Aflatoxins are toxic secondary metabolites produced by Aspergillus spp. found in staple food and feed commodities worldwide. Aflatoxins are carcinogenic, teratogenic, and mutagenic, and pose a serious threat to the health of both humans and animals. The global economy and trade are significantly affected as well. Various models and datasets related to aflatoxins in maize have been developed and used but have not yet been linked. The prevention of crop loss due to aflatoxin contamination is complex and challenging. Hence, the set-up of advanced decontamination is crucial to cope with the challenge of climate change, growing population, unstable political scenarios, and food security problems also in European countries. After harvest, decontamination methods can be applied during transport, storage, or processing, but their application for aflatoxin reduction is still limited. Therefore, this review aims to investigate the effects of environmental factors on aflatoxin production because of climate change and to critically discuss the present-day and novel decontamination techniques to unravel gaps and limitations to propose them as a tool to tackle an increased aflatoxin risk in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid36761564, year = {2022}, author = {Pazmiño-Palomino, A and Reyes-Puig, C and Del Hierro, AG}, title = {How could climate change influence the distribution of the black soldier fly, Hermetiaillucens (Linnaeus) (Diptera, Stratiomyidae)?.}, journal = {Biodiversity data journal}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e90146}, pmid = {36761564}, issn = {1314-2828}, abstract = {The black soldier fly, Hermetiaillucens (Linnaeus, 1758), is a saprophagous species used to decompose organic matter. This study proposes a distribution model of H.illucens to illustrate its current and future distribution. The methodology includes data collection from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), complemented with iNaturalist, manual expert curation of occurrence records, six species distribution models algorithms and one ensemble model. The average temperature of the driest annual quarter and the precipitation of the coldest annual quarter were the key variables influencing the potential distribution of H.illucens. The distribution range is estimated to decrease progressively and their suitable habitats could change dramatically in the future due to global warming. On the other hand, current optimal habitats would become uninhabitable for the species, mainly at low latitudes. Under this scenario, the species is projected to move to higher latitudes and elevations in the future. The results of this study provide data on the distribution of H.illucens, facilitating its location, management and sustainable use in current and future scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid36761538, year = {2022}, author = {Lhoumeau, S and Cardoso, P and Boieiro, M and Ros-Prieto, A and Costa, R and Lamelas-Lopez, L and Leite, A and Amorim do Rosário, I and Gabriel, R and Malumbres-Olarte, J and Rigal, F and Santos, AMC and Tsafack, N and Ferreira, MT and Borges, PAV}, title = {SLAM Project - Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the natural forests of Azores: V - New records of terrestrial arthropods after ten years of SLAM sampling.}, journal = {Biodiversity data journal}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e97952}, pmid = {36761538}, issn = {1314-2828}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: A long-term study monitoring arthropods (Arthropoda) is being conducted since 2012 in the forests of Azorean Islands. Named "SLAM - Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the natural forest of Azores", this project aims to understand the impact of biodiversity erosion drivers in the distribution, abundance and diversity of Azorean arthropods. The current dataset represents arthropods that have been recorded using a total of 42 passive SLAM traps (Sea, Land and Air Malaise) deployed in native, mixed and exotic forest fragments in seven Azorean Islands (Flores, Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Terceira, São Miguel and Santa Maria). This manuscript is the fifth data-paper contribution, based on data from this long-term monitoring project.<br><br>NEW INFORMATION: We targeted taxa for species identification belonging to Arachnida (excluding Acari), Chilopoda, Diplopoda, Hexapoda (excluding Collembola, Lepidoptera, Diptera and Hymenoptera (but including only Formicidae)). Specimens were sampled over seven Azorean Islands during the 2012-2021 period. Spiders (Araneae) data from Pico and Terceira Islands are not included since they have been already published elsewhere (Costa and Borges 2021, Lhoumeau et al. 2022). We collected a total of 176007 specimens, of which 168565 (95.7%) were identified to the species or subspecies level. For Araneae and some Hemiptera species, juveniles are also included in this paper, since the low diversity in the Azores allows a relatively precise species-level identification of this life-stage. We recorded a total of 316 named species and subspecies, belonging to 25 orders, 106 families and 260 genera. The ten most abundant species were mostly endemic or native non-endemic (one Opiliones, one Archaeognatha and seven Hemiptera) and only one exotic species, the Julida Ommatoiulusmoreleti (Lucas, 1860). These ten species represent 107330 individuals (60%) of all sampled specimens and can be considered as the dominant species in the Azorean native forests for the target studied taxa. The Hemiptera were the most abundant taxa, with 90127 (50.4%) specimens. The Coleoptera were the most diverse with 30 (28.6%) families.We registered 72 new records for many of the islands (two for Flores, eight for Faial, 24 for Graciosa, 23 for Pico, eight for Terceira, three for S&#xe3;o Miguel and four for Santa Maria). These records represent 58 species. None of them is new to the Azores Archipelago. Most of the new records are introduced species, all still with low abundance on the studied islands. This publication contributes to increasing the baseline information for future long-term comparisons of the arthropods of the studied sites and the knowledge of the arthropod fauna of the native forests of the Azores, in terms of species abundance, distribution and diversity throughout seasons and years.}, }
@article {pmid36761513, year = {2022}, author = {Lhoumeau, S and Cardoso, P and Costa, R and Boieiro, M and Malumbres-Olarte, J and Amorim, IR and Rigal, F and Santos, AMC and Gabriel, R and Borges, PAV}, title = {SLAM Project - Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the natural forest of Azores: IV - The spiders of Terceira and Pico Islands (2019-2021) and general diversity patterns after ten years of sampling.}, journal = {Biodiversity data journal}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e96442}, pmid = {36761513}, issn = {1314-2828}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Long-term studies are key to understand the drivers of biodiversity erosion, such as land-use change and habitat degradation, climate change, invasive species or pollution. The long-term project SLAM (Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the natural forest of Azores) started in 2012 and focuses on arthropod monitoring, using SLAM (Sea, Land and Air Malaise) traps, aiming to understand the impact of the drivers of biodiversity erosion on Azorean native forests (Azores, Portugal). This is the fourth contribution including SLAM project data and the second focused on the spider fauna (Arachnida, Araneae) of native forests on two islands (Pico and Terceira). In this contribution, we describe data collected between 2019 and 2021 and we analyse them together with a previously published database that covered the 2012-2019 period, in order to describe changes in species abundance patterns over the last ten years.<br><br>NEW INFORMATION: We present abundance data of Azorean spider species for the 2019-2021 period in two Azorean Islands (Terceira and Pico). We also present analyses of species distribution and abundance of the whole sampling period. In the period of 2019-2021, we collected a total of 5110 spider specimens, of which 2449 (48%) were adults. Most juveniles, with the exception of some exotic Erigoninae, were also included in the data presented in this paper, since the low diversity of spiders in the Azores allows a relatively precise species-level identification of this life-stage. We recorded a total of 45 species, belonging to 39 genera and 16 families. The ten most abundant species were composed mostly of endemic or native non-endemic species and only two exotic species (Tenuiphantestenuis (Blackwall, 1852) and Dysderacrocata C. L. Koch, 1838). They included 4308 individuals (84%) of all sampled specimens and were the dominant species in Azorean native forests. The family Linyphiidae was the richest and most abundant taxon, with 15 (33%) species and 2630 (51%) specimens. We report Cheiracanthiummildei L. Koch, 1864, a non-native species, from Pico Island for the first time. We found no new species records on Terceira Island. This publication contributes to increasing the baseline information for future long-term comparisons of the spiders on the studied sites and the knowledge of the arachnofauna of the native forests of Terceira and Pico, in terms of species abundance, distribution and diversity across seasons for a 10 years period.}, }
@article {pmid36761500, year = {2022}, author = {Borges, PAV and Lamelas-López, L and Tsafack, N and Boieiro, M and Ros-Prieto, A and Gabriel, R and Nunes, R and Ferreira, MT}, title = {SLAM Project - Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the Natural Forest of Azores: III - Testing the impact of edge effects in a native forest of Terceira Island.}, journal = {Biodiversity data journal}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e85971}, pmid = {36761500}, issn = {1314-2828}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The data we present are part of the long-term project "SLAM Project - Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the Natural Forest of Azores" that started in 2012, aiming to understand the impact of biodiversity erosion drivers on Azorean native forests (Azores, Macaronesia, Portugal). The data for the current study consist in an inventory of arthropods collected in three locations of a native forest fragment at Terra-Brava protected area (Terceira, Azores, Portugal) aiming to test the impact of edge effects on Azorean arthropod communities. The three locations were: (i) the edge of the forest, closer to the pastures; (ii) an intermediate area (100 m from edge); and (iii) the deepest part of the native forest fragment (more than 300 m from edge). The study was carried out between June 2014 and December 2015. A total of nine passive flight interception SLAM (Sea, Land and Air Malaise) traps were deployed (three in each of the studied locations), during 18 consecutive months. This study provides the raw data to investigate temporal and edge effect variation for the Azorean arthropod communities.<br><br>NEW INFORMATION: The collected arthropods belong to a wide diversity of taxonomic groups of Arachnida, Diplopoda, Chilopoda and Insecta classes. We collected a total of 13,516 specimens from which it was possible to identify to species level almost all specimens (13,504). These identified specimens belong to 15 orders, 58 families (plus three with only genus or family level identification) and 97 species of arthropods. A total of 35 species are considered introduced, 34 native non-endemic and 28 endemic. Additionally, a total of 10 taxa (12 specimens) were recorded at genus, family or order level. This dataset will allow researchers to test the impact of edge effect on arthropod biodiversity and to investigate seasonal changes in Azorean arthropod native forest communities.}, }
@article {pmid36759239, year = {2023}, author = {Gallagher, A and Smyth, B and Jha, V}, title = {Climate Change, Heat-Related Acute Kidney Disease, and the Need for Action.}, journal = {American journal of kidney diseases : the official journal of the National Kidney Foundation}, volume = {81}, number = {5}, pages = {501-503}, doi = {10.1053/j.ajkd.2022.11.002}, pmid = {36759239}, issn = {1523-6838}, mesh = {Humans ; *Hot Temperature ; Climate Change ; *Kidney Diseases ; }, }
@article {pmid36758747, year = {2023}, author = {Caldeira, D and Dores, H and Franco, F and Bravo Baptista, S and Cabral, S and Cachulo, MDC and Peixeiro, A and Rodrigues, R and Santos, M and Timóteo, AT and Campos, L and Vasconcelos, J and Nogueira, PJ and Gonçalves, L}, title = {Global warming and heat wave risks for cardiovascular diseases: A position paper from the Portuguese Society of Cardiology.}, journal = {Revista portuguesa de cardiologia : orgao oficial da Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia = Portuguese journal of cardiology : an official journal of the Portuguese Society of Cardiology}, volume = {42}, number = {12}, pages = {1017-1024}, doi = {10.1016/j.repc.2023.02.002}, pmid = {36758747}, issn = {2174-2030}, mesh = {Humans ; *Cardiology ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; *Global Warming ; Portugal ; *Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Global warming is a result of the increased emission of greenhouse gases. The consequences of this climate change threaten society, biodiversity, food and resource availability. The consequences include an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease and cardiovascular mortality. In this position paper, we summarize the data from the main studies that assess the risks of a temperature increase or heat waves in CV events (CV mortality, myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, and CV hospitalizations), as well as the data concerning air pollution as an enhancer of temperature-related CV risks. The data currently support global warming/heat waves (extreme temperatures) as cardiovascular threats. Achieving neutrality in emissions to prevent global warming is essential and it is likely to have an effect in the global health, including the cardiovascular health. Simultaneously, urgent steps are required to adapt the society and individuals to this new climatic context that is potentially harmful for cardiovascular health. Multidisciplinary teams should plan and intervene healthcare related to temperature changes and heat waves and advocate for a change in environmental health policy.}, }
@article {pmid36756845, year = {2023}, author = {Garcia-Costoya, G and Williams, CE and Faske, TM and Moorman, JD and Logan, ML}, title = {Evolutionary constraints mediate extinction risk under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {529-539}, doi = {10.1111/ele.14173}, pmid = {36756845}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Acclimatization ; Biological Evolution ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Mounting evidence suggests that rapid evolutionary adaptation may rescue some organisms from the impacts of climate change. However, evolutionary constraints might hinder this process, especially when different aspects of environmental change generate antagonistic selection on genetically correlated traits. Here, we use individual-based simulations to explore how genetic correlations underlying the thermal physiology of ectotherms might influence their responses to the two major components of climate change-increases in mean temperature and thermal variability. We found that genetic correlations can influence population dynamics under climate change, with declines in population size varying three-fold depending on the type of correlation present. Surprisingly, populations whose thermal performance curves were constrained by genetic correlations often declined less rapidly than unconstrained populations. Our results suggest that accurate forecasts of the impact of climate change on ectotherms will require an understanding of the genetic architecture of the traits under selection.}, }
@article {pmid36756817, year = {2023}, author = {Stefanski, A and Butler, EE and Bermudez, R and Montgomery, RA and Reich, PB}, title = {Stomatal behaviour moderates the water cost of CO2 acquisition for 21 boreal and temperate species under experimental climate change.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {46}, number = {10}, pages = {3102-3119}, doi = {10.1111/pce.14559}, pmid = {36756817}, issn = {1365-3040}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Water ; Ecosystem ; Photosynthesis ; Soil ; }, abstract = {The linkage of stomatal behaviour with photosynthesis is critical to understanding water and carbon cycles under global change. The relationship of stomatal conductance (gs) and CO2 assimilation (Anet) across a range of environmental contexts, as represented in the model parameter (g1), has served as a proxy of the marginal water cost of carbon acquisition. We use g1 to assess species differences in stomatal behaviour to a decade of open-air experimental climate change manipulations, asking whether generalisable patterns exist across species and climate contexts. Anet -gs measurements (17 727) for 21 boreal and temperate tree species under ambient and +3.3°C warming, and ambient and ~40% summer rainfall reduction, provided >2700 estimates of g1 . Warming and/or reduced rainfall treatments both lowered g1 because those treatments resulted in lower soil moisture and because stomatal behaviour changed more in warming when soil moisture was low. Species tended to respond similarly, although, in species from warmer and drier habitats, g1 tended to be slightly higher and to be the least sensitive to the decrease in soil water. Overall, both warming and rainfall reduction consistently made stomatal behaviour more conservative in terms of water loss per unit carbon gain across 21 species and a decade of experimental observation.}, }
@article {pmid36755693, year = {2023}, author = {Santos, CS and Habyarimana, E and Vasconcelos, MW}, title = {Editorial: The impact of climate change on nutrient composition of staple foods and the role of diversification in increasing food system resilience.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1087712}, pmid = {36755693}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid36755589, year = {2023}, author = {Garba, I and Abdourahamane, ZS}, title = {Extreme rainfall characterisation under climate change and rapid population growth in the city of Niamey, Niger.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e13326}, pmid = {36755589}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Since recent years, the Sahel semiarid region has experienced devastating floods-causing significant losses and damages. The present paper attempts to characterise extreme rainfalls responsible for pluvial floods in the city of Niamey, in Niger, under climate change and rapid population growth. Past damaging rainfall records spanning 1992-2015 were used to estimate the optimal temporal scale and to define a threshold for extreme rainfall. The characteristics of extreme rainfalls were then assessed under stationary and non-stationary conditions using peaks over threshold (POT) with the generalised pareto distribution (GDP). In the non-stationary POT, population data was used as threshold covariate whereas air temperature was used as scale parameter covariate. A suitable temporal scale of 3 h was found, whereas the threshold depth was 28.71 mm under stationary conditions and between 21 and 27 mm for the time dependent threshold. The analysis of the extreme rainfall series revealed no significant trend neither in the magnitude nor in the frequency. The influence of air temperature in the characterization of extreme rainfall were less compared to rapid urbanisation, represented herein by population growth. By 2040, 3-hourly rainfall depths of 20 mm could be considered as extreme rainfall.}, }
@article {pmid36755176, year = {2023}, author = {Vaidyanathan, G}, title = {How India is battling deadly rain storms as climate change bites.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {614}, number = {7947}, pages = {210-213}, pmid = {36755176}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Cyclonic Storms/statistics &amp; numerical data ; India ; *Rain ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid36754361, year = {2023}, author = {Venegas Hargous, C and Strugnell, C and Allender, S and Orellana, L and Corvalan, C and Bell, C}, title = {Double- and triple-duty actions in childhood for addressing the global syndemic of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change: A scoping review.}, journal = {Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {e13555}, doi = {10.1111/obr.13555}, pmid = {36754361}, issn = {1467-789X}, mesh = {Humans ; Food ; Syndemic ; *Refuse Disposal ; Obesity/prevention &amp; control ; *Malnutrition/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Obesity, undernutrition, and climate change constitute a global syndemic that disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, including children. Double- and triple-duty actions that simultaneously address these pandemics are needed to prevent further health, economic, and environmental consequences. Evidence describing the implementation and evaluation of such actions is lacking. This review summarized the literature on whole-of-population actions targeting children that were designed or adapted to be double or triple duty. Six academic databases were searched (January 2015-March 2021) using terms related to 'children', 'intervention', 'nutrition', 'physical activity', and 'climate change'. Data were extracted from 43/15,475 studies, including six randomized controlled trials. Most (58%) described triple-duty actions targeting food systems in schools such as implementing guidelines for healthier and environmentally sustainable school meals programs, and 51% reported engaging community in the design, implementation, and/or evaluation of actions. Changes in dietary intake, diet composition, greenhouse gas emissions, and food waste were the most frequently reported outcomes and 21 studies (three randomized controlled trials) showed positive double- or triple-duty effects. This review is the first to demonstrate that double- and triple-duty actions for addressing the global syndemic in childhood have been implemented and can have a positive impact on obesity, undernutrition, and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36753893, year = {2023}, author = {Yuan, W and Liu, Q and Song, S and Lu, Y and Yang, S and Fang, Z and Shi, Z}, title = {A climate-water quality assessment framework for quantifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to water quality variations.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {333}, number = {}, pages = {117441}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117441}, pmid = {36753893}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; *Water Quality ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Climate Change ; Human Activities ; Rivers ; China ; }, abstract = {Water quality safety has attracted global attention and is closely related to the development of the social economy and human health. It is widely recognized that climate change and human activities significantly affect water quality changes. Therefore, quantifying the contributions of factors that drive long-term water quality changes is crucial for effective water quality management. Here, we built a climate-water quality assessment framework (CWQAF) based on climate-water quality response coefficients and trend analysis methods, to achieve this goal. Our results showed that the water quality improved significantly by 4.45%-20.54% from 2011 to 2020 in the Minjiang River basin (MRB). Human activities (including the construction of ecological projects, stricter discharge measures, etc.) were the main driving factors contributing 65%-77% of the improvement effect. Notably, there were differences in the contributions of human activities to water quality parameter changes, such as DO (increase (I): 0.12 mg/L, human contribution (HC): 66.8%), CODMn (decrease (D): 0.71 mg/L, HC: 67.2%), BOD5 (D: 1.10 mg/L, HC: 77.7%), CODCr (D: 4.20 mg/L, HC: 81.2%), TP (D: 0.13 mg/L,HC: 72.8%) and NH3-N (D: 0.40 mg/L, HC: 63.0%). Climate change explained 23%-35% of the variation in water quality. The water quality response to climate change was relatively significant with precipitation. For example, the downstream region was more susceptible to climate change than was the upstream region, as the downstream movement of precipitation centers strengthened the process of climatic factors affecting water quality changes in the MRB. Generally, although human activities were the main driving factor of water quality changes at the basin scale, the contribution of climate change could not be ignored. This study provided a manageable framework for the quantitative analysis of the influence of human activities and climate change on water quality to enable more precise and effective water quality management.}, }
@article {pmid36753554, year = {2023}, author = {Qin, S and Yuan, H and Hu, C and Li, X and Wang, Y and Zhang, Y and Dong, W and Clough, T and Luo, J and Zhou, S and Wrage-Mönnig, N and Ma, L and Oenema, O}, title = {Anthropogenic N input increases global warming potential by awakening the "sleeping" ancient C in deep critical zones.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {eadd0041}, pmid = {36753554}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Even a small net increase in soil organic carbon (SOC) mineralization will cause a substantial increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration. It is widely recognized that the SOC mineralization within deep critical zones (2 to 12 m depth) is slower and much less influenced by anthropogenic disturbance when compared to that of surface soil. Here, we showed that 20 years of nitrogen (N) fertilization enriched a deep critical zone with nitrate, almost doubling the SOC mineralization rate. This result was supported by corresponding increases in the expressions of functional genes typical of recalcitrant SOC degradation and enzyme activities. The CO2 released and the SOC had a similar [14]C age (6000 to 10,000 years before the present). Our results indicate that N fertilization of crops may enhance CO2 emissions from deep critical zones to the atmosphere through a previously disregarded mechanism. This provides another reason for markedly improving N management in fertilized agricultural soils.}, }
@article {pmid36753551, year = {2023}, author = {Seltzer, AM and Blard, PH and Sherwood, SC and Kageyama, M}, title = {Terrestrial amplification of past, present, and future climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {eadf8119}, pmid = {36753551}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Terrestrial amplification (TA) of land warming relative to oceans is apparent in recent climatic observations. TA results from land-sea coupling of moisture and heat and is therefore important for predicting future warming and water availability. However, the theoretical basis for TA has never been tested outside the short instrumental period, and the spatial pattern and amplitude of TA remain uncertain. Here, we investigate TA during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~20 thousand years) in the low latitudes, where the theory is most applicable. We find remarkable consistency between paleotemperature proxies, theory, and climate model simulations of both LGM and future climates. Paleoclimate data thus provide crucial new support for TA, refining the range of future low-latitude, low-elevation TA to [Formula: see text] (95% confidence interval), i.e., land warming ~40% more than oceans. The observed data model theory agreement helps reconcile LGM marine and terrestrial paleotemperature proxies, with implications for equilibrium climate sensitivity.}, }
@article {pmid36753023, year = {2023}, author = {Bornman, JF and Barnes, PW and Pandey, K}, title = {Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: 2022 Quadrennial Assessment.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {935-936}, doi = {10.1007/s43630-023-00374-9}, pmid = {36753023}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Stratospheric Ozone ; Ultraviolet Rays ; Climate Change ; *Ozone Depletion ; *Ozone ; }, }
@article {pmid36752238, year = {2022}, author = {Šklebar, T and Rudež, KD and Rudež, LK and Likić, R}, title = {Global Warming and Prescribing: A Review on Medicines' Effects and Precautions.}, journal = {Psychiatria Danubina}, volume = {34}, number = {Suppl 10}, pages = {5-12}, pmid = {36752238}, issn = {0353-5053}, mesh = {Humans ; *Global Warming ; *Thyroxine ; Temperature ; Pertussis Vaccine ; Weather ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Global warming is slowly but surely becoming one of the greatest problems of the modern world. Heatwaves with extremely high temperatures and humidity changes are particularly dangerous as they can lead to increased mortality rates and increased side effects of certain medications. The goal of this study was to give a short review of the most critical issues healthcare professionals should be mindful of when it comes to prescription of medicines during high temperature periods.<br><br>METHODS: A PubMed literature search was conducted in January 2021 in order to identify studies showing stability changes of most prescribed drugs in high temperatures as well as studies demonstrating impact of some drugs on human thermoregulation.<br><br>RESULTS: A vast majority of the commonly prescribed drugs, including Simvastatin, Levothyroxine, Omeprazole and Atorvastatin aren't susceptible to heat. However, some studies found that Amlodipine and Lansoprazole degrade following heat exposure. A study demonstrated the effects of low relative humidity environment on Levothyroxine tablets. While Levothyroxine remained stable at high temperatures, it significantly degraded with the decrease in humidity. Since all vaccines, both viral and bacterial, are most stable at exactly 2-8 &#xb0;C, providing adequate storage has turned out to be an immense challenge. In general, killed whole-cell bacterial vaccines, like pertussis vaccine, show a higher degree of stability of potency compared to live attenuated vaccines, such as BCG. However, when tested in high-temperature conditions, BCG vaccine has proven to be more stable than Pertussis vaccine. Also, diphtheria and tetanus toxoids have proven to be most stable during exposure to various conditions. Many medicines can potentially have their side effects enhanced during heatwaves and cause serious health issues. Using the percutaneous form of nitroglycerin could lead to an additional decrease in blood pressure in warm weather. Subdermally injected insulin could create a severe hypoglycemia in diabetic patients. Studies have shown that schizophrenic patients on antipsychotic treatment have much lower heat tolerance, with a higher possibility of developing hyperthermic syndromes such as febrile catatonia or neuroleptic malignant syndrome.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Heatwave periods are not to be taken lightly and should be approached with utmost caution when prescribing therapy. It is of critical importance to inform and educate vulnerable populations early in the season and promote proper hydration throughout the periods when temperatures exceed local averages.}, }
@article {pmid36751969, year = {2023}, author = {Jiang, D and Zhao, X and López-Pujol, J and Wang, Z and Qu, Y and Zhang, Y and Zhang, T and Li, D and Jiang, K and Wang, B and Yan, C and Li, JT}, title = {Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on ranges of vertebrate species endemic to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over 40 years.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {37}, number = {4}, pages = {e14069}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.14069}, pmid = {36751969}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Tibet ; *Anthropogenic Effects ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Vertebrates ; Mammals ; }, abstract = {Over the past 40 years, the climate has been changing and human disturbance has increased in the vast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). These 2 factors are expected to affect the distribution of a large number of endemic vertebrate species. However, quantitative relationships between range shifts and climate change and human disturbance of these species in the QTP have rarely been evaluated. We used occurrence records of 19 terrestrial vertebrate species (birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles) occurring in the QTP from 1980 to 2020 to quantify the effects of climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the distribution of these 4 taxonomic groups and estimated species range changes in each species. The trend in distribution changes differed among the taxonomic groups, although, generally, ranges shifted to central QTP. Climate change contributed more to range variation than human disturbance (the sum of the 4 climatic variables contributed more than the sum of the 4 human disturbance variables for all 4 taxonomic groups). Suitable geographic range increased for most mammals, amphibians, and reptiles (+27.6%, +18.4%, and +27.8% on average, respectively), whereas for birds range decreased on average by 0.9%. Quantitative evidence for climate change and human disturbance associations with range changes for endemic vertebrate species in the QTP can provide useful insights into biodiversity conservation under changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid36750677, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Global pandemic treaty: what we must learn from climate-change errors.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {614}, number = {7947}, pages = {195-196}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-00339-z}, pmid = {36750677}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *International Cooperation/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Pandemics/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid36750639, year = {2023}, author = {Rodriguez-Ruano, V and Toth, LT and Enochs, IC and Randall, CJ and Aronson, RB}, title = {Upwelling, climate change, and the shifting geography of coral reef development.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1770}, pmid = {36750639}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Coral Reefs ; Climate Change ; *Anthozoa ; Carbonates ; Geography ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {The eastern tropical Pacific is oceanographically unfavorable for coral-reef development. Nevertheless, reefs have persisted there for the last 7000 years. Rates of vertical accretion during the Holocene have been similar in the strong-upwelling Gulf of Panamá (GoP) and the adjacent, weak-upwelling Gulf of Chiriquí (GoC); however, seasonal upwelling in the GoP exacerbated a climate-driven hiatus in reef development in the late Holocene. The situation is now reversed and seasonal upwelling in the GoP currently buffers thermal stress, creating a refuge for coral growth. We developed carbonate budget models to project the capacity of reefs in both gulfs to keep up with future sea-level rise. On average, the GoP had significantly higher net carbonate production rates than the GoC. With an estimated contemporary reef-accretion potential (RAP) of 5.5 mm year[-1], reefs in the GoP are projected to be able to keep up with sea-level rise if CO2 emissions are reduced, but not under current emissions trajectories. With an estimated RAP of just 0.3 mm year[-1], reefs in the GoC are likely already unable to keep up with contemporary sea-level rise in Panamá (1.4 mm year[-1]). Whereas the GoP has the potential to support functional reefs in the near-term, our study indicates that their long-term persistence will depend on reduction of greenhouse gases.}, }
@article {pmid36749521, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, M and Yao, T and Wang, K}, title = {The economic impact of climate change: a bibliometric analysis of research hotspots and trends.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {16}, pages = {47935-47955}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-023-25721-2}, pmid = {36749521}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {71871022//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 72293601//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 72271026//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71521002//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 161076//Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Publications ; Bibliometrics ; China ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been a widely concerned issue for decades. As the key policy target, the economic impact caused by climate change has received general attention from scholars and governments around the world. For the number of literatures is huge and the relationships among the literatures are not clear, we aim to clarify the research hotpots and the research trends of current literatures and provide inspiration for the development directions of future research in this paper. Using the bibliometric method, this paper characterizes the literatures on the economic impact of climate change based on the Web of Science (WoS) Core Collection. The results reveal that the USA occupies the leading position of the studies, which publishes most documents, and contains the most productive institutes and well-known scholars. From 2009, the number of documents published by a Chinese scholar started to increase rapidly, which makes China the second most productive country in recent years. The journals both belong to the WoS Categories of economics and environmental sciences and tend to publish more literatures than others. Adaptation, vulnerability, uncertainty, economic growth, climate policy, ecosystem service, energy consumption, renewable energy, food security, and land use are the representative keywords that have both high frequency and high centrality. Potential benefits, fat-tailed risk, social cost, international migration, and sustainable intensification are the top five main research hotspots. Based on the citation network of the top 50 documents with the highest local citation score, four research trends are sorted out: (i) the methodological innovation to monetized estimate the economic impact of climate change, (ii) the effect of current and future adaptive measures on agriculture, (iii) the interactional relationship between induced technological change and carbon tax, and (iv) the effect on labor market caused by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36749427, year = {2023}, author = {Singh, N and Mina, U}, title = {An assessment of methane emission from the CNG cylinder testing stations in Delhi and its implication for global warming.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {3}, pages = {369}, pmid = {36749427}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; Vehicle Emissions/analysis ; Global Warming ; Methane ; Environmental Monitoring ; Natural Gas/analysis ; }, abstract = {Methane is an important greenhouse gas, which constitutes minimum 90% of automotive grade compressed natural gas (CNG) used in India. The use of CNG as automotive fuel has been implemented in almost all major tier I to tier III cities of the country. Delhi, the capital city of India, has world largest CNG-fuelled public transport system. The cylinders fitted to the CNG-fuelled vehicles are required to be subjected to hydrostatic stretch test every 3 years at Government of India approved CNG cylinder testing stations, as mandated under Rule 35 of Gas Cylinders Rules, 2016. During the testing of cylinders, CNG present in the cylinders are discharged in the atmosphere at the degassing point of CNG testing stations. This study estimates annual methane emissions from the CNG cylinder testing stations of Delhi. The annual average methane emission from the CNG cylinder testing stations of Delhi was found to be 30.8 tons during the year 2019. The uncertainties in the emission estimate are also identified and discussed.}, }
@article {pmid36747958, year = {2023}, author = {Bibi, TS and Kara, KG}, title = {Evaluation of climate change, urbanization, and low-impact development practices on urban flooding.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e12955}, pmid = {36747958}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model was used in this study to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change, urbanization, and low-impact developments (LIDs) on urban flooding in Robe town, Ethiopia. To achieve the objective, four scenarios were developed in order to simulate changes in peak runoff, inundated volume, and the performance of existing drainage systems. The findings revealed that as urbanization increased from 10% to 70%, the inundated volume of nodes and peak runoff increased from 35,418 to 52,118 × 10[3] m[3] and 89.4-111.96 m[3]/s, respectively. Furthermore, the peak runoff in response to climate change is increased by 46.9%, 34.8%, and 37.5%, respectively, as a result of the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model version 4 (RCA4), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO22T), and the hydrostatic version of the regional model (REMO2009). Overall, the findings showed that existing drainage systems were unable to collect and convey the amplified inundation from different simulated scenarios, and the Welmel sub-city to roundabout was threatened by increased flooding, causing significant damage to properties and infrastructure. The implemented LIDs are capable of reducing the expected peak runoff, flooding magnitude, and flooded junctions in climate change and urbanization scenarios; however, combining both mitigation measures can further reduce the study area. The implementation of a mitigation strategy with adequate drainage systems will be required to mitigate the flooding risks in Robe town.}, }
@article {pmid36745810, year = {2023}, author = {Kiessling, W and Smith, JA and Raja, NB}, title = {Improving the relevance of paleontology to climate change policy.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {7}, pages = {e2201926119}, pmid = {36745810}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Paleontology has provided invaluable basic knowledge on the history of life on Earth. The discipline can also provide substantial knowledge to societal challenges such as climate change. The long-term perspective of climate change impacts on natural systems is both a unique selling point and a major obstacle to becoming more pertinent for policy-relevant bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Repeated experiments on the impacts of climate change without anthropogenic disturbance facilitate the extraction of climate triggers in biodiversity changes. At the same time, the long timescales over which paleontological changes are usually assessed are beyond the scope of policymakers. Based on first-hand experience with the IPCC and a quantitative analysis of its cited literature, we argue that the differences in temporal scope are less of an issue than inappropriate framing and reporting of most paleontological publications. Accepting that some obstacles will remain, paleontology can quickly improve its relevance by targeting climate change impacts more directly and focusing on effect sizes and relevance for projections, particularly on higher-end climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid36745797, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, Y and Pineda-Munoz, S and McGuire, JL}, title = {Plants maintain climate fidelity in the face of dynamic climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {7}, pages = {e2201946119}, pmid = {36745797}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plants ; Ecosystem ; North America ; Microclimate ; }, abstract = {Plants will experience considerable changes in climate within their geographic ranges over the next several decades. They may respond by exhibiting niche flexibility and adapting to changing climates. Alternatively, plant taxa may exhibit climate fidelity, shifting their geographic distributions to track their preferred climates. Here, we examine the responses of plant taxa to changing climates over the past 18,000 y to evaluate the extent to which the 16 dominant plant taxa of North America have exhibited climate fidelity. We find that 75% of plant taxa consistently exhibit climate fidelity over the past 18,000 y, even during the times of most extreme climate change. Of the four taxa that do not consistently exhibit climate fidelity, three-elm (Ulmus), beech (Fagus), and ash (Fraxinus)-experience a long-term shift in their realized climatic niche between the early Holocene and present day. Plant taxa that migrate longer distances better maintain consistent climatic niches across transition periods during times of the most extreme climate change. Today, plant communities with the highest climate fidelity are found in regions with high topographic and microclimate heterogeneity that are expected to exhibit high climate resilience, allowing plants to shift distributions locally and adjust to some amount of climate change. However, once the climate change buffering of the region is exceeded, these plant communities will need to track climates across broader landscapes but be challenged to do so because of the low habitat connectivity of the regions.}, }
@article {pmid36744564, year = {2023}, author = {Jiranek, J and Miller, IF and An, R and Bruns, E and Metcalf, CJE}, title = {Mechanistic models to meet the challenge of climate change in plant-pathogen systems.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {1873}, pages = {20220017}, pmid = {36744564}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Evidence that climate change will impact the ecology and evolution of individual plant species is growing. However, little, as yet, is known about how climate change will affect interactions between plants and their pathogens. Climate drivers could affect the physiology, and thus demography, and ultimately evolutionary processes affecting both plant hosts and their pathogens. Because the impacts of climate drivers may operate in different directions at different scales of infection, and, furthermore, may be nonlinear, abstracting across these processes may mis-specify outcomes. Here, we use mechanistic models of plant-pathogen interactions to illustrate how counterintuitive outcomes are possible, and we introduce how such framing may contribute to understanding climate effects on plant-pathogen systems. We discuss the evidence-base derived from wild and agricultural plant-pathogen systems that could inform such models, specifically in the direction of estimates of physiological, demographic and evolutionary responses to climate change. We conclude by providing an overview of knowledge gaps and directions for future research in this important area. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.}, }
@article {pmid36744450, year = {2023}, author = {Ezeruigbo, CF and Ezeoha, A}, title = {Climate change and the burden of healthcare financing in African households.}, journal = {African journal of primary health care &amp; family medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-e3}, pmid = {36744450}, issn = {2071-2936}, mesh = {Humans ; *Healthcare Financing ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Health Expenditures ; Income ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a mounting pressure on private health financing in Africa - directly because of increased disease prevalence and indirectly because of its negative impact on household income. The sources and consequences of the pressure constitute an important area of policy discourse, especially as it relates to issues of poverty and inequality. Relying on a panel dataset involving 49 African countries and the period 2000-2019, as well as a random effect regression analysis, this report shows that climate change has a positive and significant impact on the level of out-of-pocket health expenditure (OPHE) in Africa, and an increase in the level of greenhouse (CO2) emissions by 1% could bring about a 0.423% increase in the level of OPHE. Indirectly, the results show that, compared with the regional average, countries that have higher government health expenditure levels, above 1.7% regional average, and face higher climate change risk may likely record an increase in OPHE. Alternatively, countries with higher per capita income (above the regional annual average of $2300.00) are likely to record a drop in OPHE. Countries with lower climate change risk and a lower than the regional average age dependency (above the regional average of 80.4%) are also likely to record a drop in OPHE. It follows that there is a need for policy alignment, especially with regard to how climate change influences primary health care funding models in Africa.Contribution: The results of this research offer policymakers in-depth knowledge of how climate change erodes healthcare financing capacity of government and shifts the burden to households. This raises concerns on the quality of accessible healthcare and the link with poverty and inequality.}, }
@article {pmid36744217, year = {2023}, author = {D'Uggento, AM and Piscitelli, A and Ribecco, N and Scepi, G}, title = {Perceived climate change risk and global green activism among young people.}, journal = {Statistical methods &amp; applications}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-29}, pmid = {36744217}, issn = {1618-2510}, abstract = {In recent years, the increasing number of natural disasters has raised concerns about the sustainability of our planet's future. As young people comprise the generation that will suffer from the negative effects of climate change, they have become involved in a new climate activism that is also gaining interest in the public debate thanks to the Fridays for Future (FFF) movement. This paper analyses the results of a survey of 1,138 young people in a southern Italian region to explore their perceptions of the extent of environmental problems and their participation in protests of green movements such as the FFF. The statistical analyses perform an ordinal classification tree using an original impurity measure considering both the ordinal nature of the response variable and the heterogeneity of its ordered categories. The results show that respondents are concerned about the threat of climate change and participate in the FFF to claim their right to a healthier planet and encourage people to adopt environmentally friendly practices in their lifestyles. Young people feel they are global citizens, connected through the Internet and social media, and show greater sensitivity to the planet's environmental problems, so they are willing to take effective action to demand sustainable policies from decision-makers. When planning public policies that will affect future generations, it is important for policymakers to know the demands and opinions of key stakeholders, especially young people, in order to plan the most appropriate measures, such as climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid36743159, year = {2022}, author = {Williams, PCM and Beardsley, J and Isaacs, D and Preisz, A and Marais, BJ}, title = {The impact of climate change and biodiversity loss on the health of children: An ethical perspective.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1048317}, pmid = {36743159}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; *Communicable Diseases ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {The reality of human induced climate change is no longer in doubt, but the concerted global action required to address this existential crisis remains inexcusably inert. Together with climate change, biodiversity collapse is increasingly driving the emergence and spread of infectious diseases, the consequences of which are inequitable globally. Climate change is regressive in its nature, with those least responsible for destroying planetary health at greatest risk of suffering the direct and indirect health consequences. Over half a billion of the world's children live in areas vulnerable to extreme weather events. Without immediate action, the health of today's children and future generations will be compromised. We consider the impact of biodiversity collapse on the spread of infectious diseases and outline a duty of care along a continuum of three dimensions of medical ethics. From a medical perspective, the first dimension requires doctors to serve the best interests of their individual patients. The second dimension considers the public health dimension with a focus on disease control and cost-effectiveness. The neglected third dimension considers our mutual obligation to the future health and wellbeing of children and generations to come. Given the adverse impact of our ecological footprint on current and future human health, we have a collective moral obligation to act.}, }
@article {pmid36742193, year = {2023}, author = {Adepoju, OA and Afinowi, OA and Tauheed, AM and Danazumi, AU and Dibba, LBS and Balogun, JB and Flore, G and Saidu, U and Ibrahim, B and Balogun, OO and Balogun, EO}, title = {Multisectoral Perspectives on Global Warming and Vector-borne Diseases: a Focus on Southern Europe.}, journal = {Current tropical medicine reports}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {47-70}, pmid = {36742193}, issn = {2196-3045}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The climate change (CC) or global warming (GW) modifies environment that favors vectors' abundance, growth, and reproduction, and consequently, the rate of development of pathogens within the vectors. This review highlights the threats of GW-induced vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in Southern Europe (SE) and the need for mitigation efforts to prevent potential global health catastrophe.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Reports showed astronomical surges in the incidences of CC-induced VBDs in the SE. The recently (2022) reported first cases of African swine fever in Northern Italy and West Nile fever in SE are linked to the CC-modified environmental conditions that support vectors and pathogens' growth and development, and disease transmission.<br><br>SUMMARY: VBDs endemic to the tropics are increasingly becoming a major health challenge in the SE, a temperate region, due to the favorable environmental conditions caused by CC/GW that support vectors and pathogens' biology in the previously non-endemic temperate regions.}, }
@article {pmid36741948, year = {2023}, author = {Yeh, KB and Parekh, FK and Mombo, I and Leimer, J and Hewson, R and Olinger, G and Fair, JM and Sun, Y and Hay, J}, title = {Climate change and infectious disease: A prologue on multidisciplinary cooperation and predictive analytics.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1018293}, pmid = {36741948}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts global ecosystems at the interface of infectious disease agents and hosts and vectors for animals, humans, and plants. The climate is changing, and the impacts are complex, with multifaceted effects. In addition to connecting climate change and infectious diseases, we aim to draw attention to the challenges of working across multiple disciplines. Doing this requires concentrated efforts in a variety of areas to advance the technological state of the art and at the same time implement ideas and explain to the everyday citizen what is happening. The world's experience with COVID-19 has revealed many gaps in our past approaches to anticipating emerging infectious diseases. Most approaches to predicting outbreaks and identifying emerging microbes of major consequence have been with those causing high morbidity and mortality in humans and animals. These lagging indicators offer limited ability to prevent disease spillover and amplifications in new hosts. Leading indicators and novel approaches are more valuable and now feasible, with multidisciplinary approaches also within our grasp to provide links to disease predictions through holistic monitoring of micro and macro ecological changes. In this commentary, we describe niches for climate change and infectious diseases as well as overarching themes for the important role of collaborative team science, predictive analytics, and biosecurity. With a multidisciplinary cooperative "all call," we can enhance our ability to engage and resolve current and emerging problems.}, }
@article {pmid36741611, year = {2023}, author = {Cundiff, DK}, title = {Connecting Climate Change Mitigation to Global Land Regeneration, Doubling Worldwide Livestock, and Reduction of Early Deaths from Noncommunicable Diseases.}, journal = {Cureus}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {e33253}, pmid = {36741611}, issn = {2168-8184}, abstract = {Aim and background This article aims to link early deaths due to diet-related noncommunicable diseases at the global level, low animal food intake, primarily in developing countries, regenerative/organic agriculture, worldwide food security, and global warming mitigation. On statistically modeling Global Burden of Disease (GBD) risk factor and health outcome data, the unexpected finding was that early deaths (death before age 70) per year per 100k population due to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs, such as coronary artery disease, emphysema, liver failure, kidney failure, and cancers) were much higher in cohorts with low consumption of animal-sourced foods (processed meat, red meat, dairy, fish, poultry, eggs, and saturated fats). Relatively low NCD rates are associated with high animal food consumption. This unexpected finding led to exploring the implications of climate change. Methods I critiqued the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) definitions of "sustainability in land management, sustainable intensification (of agriculture), climate-smart agriculture," and "sustainability-focused socioeconomic pathway 1 (SSP1)"-the most climate-favorable scenario that the IPCC modeled. I modeled doubling the global livestock together with global regenerative/organic agriculture compared with the IPCC's SSP1, using the IPCC's mean 2010-2019 global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) as the baseline for comparison. Results This study found that all the IPCC's agricultural land-related definitions of interest were aspirational without detailing the farming methods used and those not allowed. The IPCC's land management-related definitions differed from the same or similar terms in the literature. The status quo net global agriculture and other land use GHGs (2010-2019) totaled 11.9 ± 4.4 gigatonnes (GT) carbon dioxide equivalent per year (11.9 ± 4.4 GTCO2-eq yr[-1]). The IPCC's modeling of the SSP1 scenario reduced GHGs to 3 GTCO2-eq yr[-1] by 2050. Transitioning to global regenerative/organic agriculture (5 billion hectares) and doubling the global livestock for human consumption and agricultural land fertilization corresponded to net global GHGs = -24.1 GTCO2-eq yr[-1] for 2-3 decades, totaling -482 to -723 GTCO2-eq of CO2 sequestration. Conclusions Doubling global livestock combined with worldwide regenerative/organic agriculture has the potential to mitigate climate change significantly more than SSP1 while providing global food security by reversing land degradation. Worldwide transitioning from intensive industrial agriculture that degrades land to regenerative/organic agriculture that sequesters CO2 in soil and doubling global livestock would require initial support with finances, resources, and additional workers for farms in both developing and developed countries. Subsequently, farms and farmers would be sustainably self-supporting with food sales. Retaining the existing farm workers and attracting hundreds of millions more workers would likely require transitioning most agricultural lands into worker-owned cooperatives.}, }
@article {pmid36738446, year = {2023}, author = {Forester, BR and Day, CC and Ruegg, K and Landguth, EL}, title = {Evolutionary potential mitigates extinction risk under climate change in the endangered southwestern willow flycatcher.}, journal = {The Journal of heredity}, volume = {114}, number = {4}, pages = {341-353}, pmid = {36738446}, issn = {1465-7333}, support = {P20 GM130418/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; /NH/NIH HHS/United States ; P20GM130418/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Salix ; Climate Change ; Plant Breeding ; Endangered Species ; Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; *Songbirds/genetics ; }, abstract = {The complexity of global anthropogenic change makes forecasting species responses and planning effective conservation actions challenging. Additionally, important components of a species' adaptive capacity, such as evolutionary potential, are often not included in quantitative risk assessments due to lack of data. While genomic proxies for evolutionary potential in at-risk species are increasingly available, they have not yet been included in extinction risk assessments at a species-wide scale. In this study, we used an individual-based, spatially explicit, dynamic eco-evolutionary simulation model to evaluate the extinction risk of an endangered desert songbird, the southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus), in response to climate change. Using data from long-term demographic and habitat studies in conjunction with genome-wide ecological genomics research, we parameterized simulations that include 418 sites across the breeding range, genomic data from 225 individuals, and climate change forecasts spanning 3 generalized circulation models and 3 emissions scenarios. We evaluated how evolutionary potential, and the lack of it, impacted population trajectories in response to climate change. We then investigated the compounding impact of drought and warming temperatures on extinction risk through the mechanism of increased nest failure. Finally, we evaluated how rapid action to reverse greenhouse gas emissions would influence population responses and species extinction risk. Our results illustrate the value of incorporating evolutionary, demographic, and dispersal processes in a spatially explicit framework to more comprehensively evaluate the extinction risk of threatened and endangered species and conservation actions to promote their recovery.}, }
@article {pmid36738416, year = {2023}, author = {Puertas, R and Marti, L and Calafat, C}, title = {Agricultural and innovation policies aimed at mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {16}, pages = {47299-47310}, pmid = {36738416}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {RTI2018-093791-B-C22//Ministerio de Fomento/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Agriculture/methods ; Technology ; Europe ; Policy ; }, abstract = {The EU supports agricultural policies to help farmers meet the challenges of climate change (CC) by promoting more sustainable and environmentally friendly practices. This study focuses on the European primary sector (agriculture, forestry, and fisheries), productive activities that meet humanity's basic needs, although this sector does not account for a dominant share of GDP. The analysis uses a panel data sample of 22 European countries for the period 2012-2019, and seeks to answer the following research questions: Is there a direct relationship between agricultural innovation efficiency and the technological advances implemented? What effect do GHG emissions and innovation efficiency have on CC? Which agricultural practices have the greatest effect on the volume of GHG emissions? The results indicate that the European primary sector has registered an average rise in productivity of 4%, mainly driven by technological improvements. This underscores the need for agricultural innovation policies that focus not only on improving aspects related to technology but also on making better use of existing resources. In addition, the econometric models estimated confirm that efficiency levels are the most influential determinants of temperature change, while GHG emissions are primarily explained by their own historical values. Ultimately, research and development is a tool that can be used to curb CC, along with the proper use of land and fertilizers. There is thus a need to foster novel agricultural practices that help reduce emissions while ensuring the efficiency of the sector.}, }
@article {pmid36738314, year = {2023}, author = {Varaldo, L and Guerrina, M and Dagnino, D and Minuto, L and Casazza, G}, title = {Dealing with disjunct populations of vascular plants: implications for assessing the effect of climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {201}, number = {2}, pages = {421-434}, pmid = {36738314}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {2017JW4HZK//Ministero dell'Istruzione, dell'Universit&#xe0; e della Ricerca/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Acclimatization ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Species distribution models are the most widely used tool to predict species distributions for species conservation and assessment of climate change impact. However, they usually do not consider intraspecific ecological variation exhibited by many species. Overlooking the potential differentiation among groups of populations may lead to misplacing any conservation actions. This issue may be particularly relevant in species in which few populations with potential local adaptation occur, as in species with disjunct populations. Here, we used ecological niche modeling to analyze how the projections of current and future climatically suitable areas of 12 plant species can be affected using the whole taxa occurrences compared to occurrences from geographically disjunct populations. Niche analyses suggest that usually the disjunct group of populations selects the climatic conditions as similar as possible to the other according to climate availability. Integrating intraspecific variability only slightly increases models' ability to predict species occurrences. However, it results in different predictions of the magnitude of range change. In some species, integrating or not integrating intraspecific variability may lead to opposite trend in projected range change. Our results suggest that integrating intraspecific variability does not strongly improve overall models' accuracy, but it can result in considerably different conclusions about future range change. Consequently, accounting for intraspecific differentiation may enable the detection of potential local adaptations to new climate and so to design targeted conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid36736753, year = {2023}, author = {Pastorino, P and Colussi, S and Varello, K and Meletiadis, A and Alberti, S and Di Blasio, A and Tedde, G and Begovoeva, M and Peano, A and Rossi, L and Renzi, M and Acutis, PL and Barceló, D and Prearo, M}, title = {Interdisciplinary approach to solve unusual mortalities in the European common frog (Rana temporaria) in two high-mountain ponds affected by climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {222}, number = {}, pages = {115411}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.115411}, pmid = {36736753}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Animals ; Rana temporaria ; *Ponds ; Climate Change ; Amphibians ; *Ranavirus ; }, abstract = {The global decline in amphibian populations is a major environmental issue. Chytridiomycosis, Ranaviruses and the red-leg syndrome have been identified in unusual mortality events. However, these infections do not account for all causes of declining amphibian populations. Moreover, several cases of amphibian mortality are difficult to solve without resorting to an interdisciplinary approach. Two cases of unusual mortality in Rana temporaria occurred at two high-mountain ponds (northwest Italy) in April and May 2021. Water and frog samples were analysed to understand the possible causes responsible for the unusual mortalities. Results of the main physicochemical (pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, chemical and biochemical oxygen demand) and nutrient (ammonia/ammonium, nitrite, nitrate, total phosphorus) parameters revealed a good condition of the water quality, with the absence of the main cyanotoxins (microcystins/nodularins). However, unseasonably high spring water temperatures were recorded in both ponds (12.73 °C and 14.21 °C for Frog Pond and Selleries Pond, respectively). Frogs (n = 50; snout-vent length: 7.0-9.8 cm; body mass: 85-123 g) collected from Frog Pond mainly presented bumps on the ventral cavity and dermal ulceration associated with the isolation of Carnobacterium maltaromaticum. On the other hand, frogs (n = 5; snout-vent length: 8.0-9.1 cm; body mass: 87-92 g) from Selleries Pond presented petechiae and dermal ulcerations on the rear limbs associated with the isolation of Aeromonas salmonicida and A. sobria. In both mortality events, the interdisciplinary approach revealed an association between frog mortalities and the isolation of bacteria. Isolated bacteria are considered opportunistic pathogens, and the high values of the water temperature has certainly led a stress on the frogs, favouring the spread of bacteria and the death of the frogs. Further studies are needed to assess the pathophysiological effects of the opportunistic bacteria here isolated, clarifying the interactions between emerging pathogens and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36736567, year = {2023}, author = {Firmino, VC and Martins, RT and Brasil, LS and Cunha, EJ and Pinedo-Garcia, RB and Hamada, N and Juen, L}, title = {Do microplastics and climate change negatively affect shredder invertebrates from an amazon stream? An ecosystem functioning perspective.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {321}, number = {}, pages = {121184}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121184}, pmid = {36736567}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Microplastics ; Plastics/toxicity ; Rivers ; Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide ; Invertebrates ; }, abstract = {Pollution and climate change are among the main threats to the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems in the 21st century. We experimentally tested the effects of microplastic and climate change (i.e., increase in temperature and CO2) on the survival and consumption by an Amazonian-stream shredder invertebrate. We tested three hypotheses. (1) Increased microplastic concentrations and climate change reduce shredder survival. We assumed that the combined stressors would increase toxic stress. (2) Increased concentrations of microplastics have negative effects on shredder food consumption. We assumed that blockage of the digestive tract by microplastics would lead to reduced ability to digest food. In addition, increased temperature and CO2 would lead to an increase in metabolic cost and reduced consumption. (3) The interaction between microplastics and climate change have greater negative effects on survival and consumption than either alone. We combined different concentrations of microplastic and climate change scenarios to simulate in real-time increases in temperature and CO2 forecast for 2100 for Amazonia. We found that both stressors had lethal effects, increasing mortality risk, but there was no interaction effect. Shredder consumption was negatively affected only by climate change. The interaction of microplastics and climate change on shredder consumption was dose-dependent and more intense in the extreme climate scenario, leading to reduced consumption. Our results indicate that microplastic and climate change may have strong effects on the consumption and/or survival of insect shredders in Amazonian streams. In addition, microplastic and climate change effects may affect not only populations but also ecosystem functioning (e.g., nutrient cycling). Integrative approaches to better understand and mitigate the effects of both stressors are necessary because plastic pollution and climate change co-occur in environments.}, }
@article {pmid36736392, year = {2023}, author = {Han, Y and Bu, H}, title = {The impact of climate change on the water quality of Baiyangdian Lake (China) in the past 30 years (1991-2020).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {870}, number = {}, pages = {161957}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161957}, pmid = {36736392}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change significantly influenced the water quality of lakes in recent decades. This study investigated the effects of climate change on the water quality of Baiyangdian Lake (China) in the past 30 years (1991-2020) using correlation analysis, regression analysis, and the generalized additive model (GAM). The results show that water quality grade, chemical oxygen demand (COD), total phosphorus (TP) concentrations, and annual average and minimum air temperatures of the lake showed significant differences (p < 0.05) in the one-way ANOVA during the studied period. The concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO) and TP, annual average and minimum air temperatures, and annual precipitation decreased, while the COD and total nitrogen (TN) concentration, annual maximum temperature, and monthly maximum precipitation increased. The annual average and minimum air temperature affected all water quality variables and explained 12.3 %-54.5 % of variation deviation in correlation and GAM analyses, indicating that the changes of air temperature influenced the water temperature, which then affected the biochemical reaction rates leading to changes in water quality. The precipitation factors explained 10.5 % (TN) to 54.8 % (TP) of variation deviation, implying that the increase in precipitation improved water quality by diluting the COD concentration. However, excessive precipitation also accelerated the endogenous release of phosphorus in sediments by increasing the TP concentration. Additionally, extreme climate factors correlated with some water quality variables and explained 57.7 %-95.9 % of the total variances in correlation and regression analyses, suggesting that the extreme temperatures changed the nitrogen and DO concentration to aggravate lake pollution. However, the extreme precipitation purified the water through dilution. This study will facilitate to understand the impacts of climate change on water quality and find appropriate adaptation measures for ecosystem management of shallow lakes.}, }
@article {pmid36735650, year = {2023}, author = {Rojas-Botero, S and Teixeira, LH and Kollmann, J}, title = {Low precipitation due to climate change consistently reduces multifunctionality of urban grasslands in mesocosms.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {e0275044}, pmid = {36735650}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Grassland ; Carbon Dioxide ; Poaceae ; Water ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Urban grasslands are crucial for biodiversity and ecosystem services in cities, while little is known about their multifunctionality under climate change. Thus, we investigated the effects of simulated climate change, i.e., increased [CO2] and temperature, and reduced precipitation, on individual functions and overall multifunctionality in mesocosm grasslands sown with forbs and grasses in four different proportions aiming at mimicking road verge grassland patches. Climate change scenarios RCP2.6 (control) and RCP8.5 (worst-case) were simulated in walk-in climate chambers of an ecotron facility, and watering was manipulated for normal vs. reduced precipitation. We measured eight indicator variables of ecosystem functions based on below- and aboveground characteristics. The young grassland communities responded to higher [CO2] and warmer conditions with increased vegetation cover, height, flower production, and soil respiration. Lower precipitation affected carbon cycling in the ecosystem by reducing biomass production and soil respiration. In turn, the water regulation capacity of the grasslands depended on precipitation interacting with climate change scenario, given the enhanced water efficiency resulting from increased [CO2] under RCP8.5. Multifunctionality was negatively affected by reduced precipitation, especially under RCP2.6. Trade-offs arose among single functions that performed best in either grass- or forb-dominated grasslands. Grasslands with an even ratio of plant functional types coped better with climate change and thus are good options for increasing the benefits of urban green infrastructure. Overall, the study provides experimental evidence of the effects of climate change on the functionality of urban ecosystems. Designing the composition of urban grasslands based on ecological theory may increase their resilience to global change.}, }
@article {pmid36735649, year = {2023}, author = {Farsi, M and Kalantar, M and Zeinalabedini, M and Vazifeshenas, MR}, title = {First assessment of Iranian pomegranate germplasm using targeted metabolites and morphological traits to develop the core collection and modeling of the current and future spatial distribution under climate change conditions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {e0265977}, pmid = {36735649}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Iran ; *Pomegranate ; Climate Change ; Plant Breeding ; Phenotype ; }, abstract = {Pomegranate has been considered a medicinal plant due to its rich nutrients and bioactive compounds. Since environmental conditions affect the amount and composition of metabolites, selecting suitable locations for cultivation would be vital to achieve optimal production. In this study, data on the diversity of targeted metabolites and morphological traits of 152 Iranian pomegranate genotypes were collected and combined in order to establish the first core collection. The multivariate analyses were conducted including principal component analysis (PCA), and cluster analysis. In addition, the current and future geographical distribution of pomegranate in Iran was predicted to identify suitable locations using the MaxEnt model. The results showed high diversity in the studied morphological and metabolic traits. The PCA results indicated that FFS, NFT, JA, and AA are the most important traits in discriminating the studied genotypes. A constructed core collection using maximization strategy consisted of 20 genotypes and accounted for 13.16% of the entire collection. Shannon-Weaver diversity index of a core collection was similar or greater than the entire collection. Evaluation of the core collection using four parameters of MD, VD, CR, and VR also indicated the maintenance of the genetic diversity of the original set. According to the MaxEnt model, altitude, average temperature of coldest quarter, and isothertmality were the key factors for the distribution of pomegranate. The most suitable areas for pomegranate cultivation were also determined which were located in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. The geographic distribution of pomegranate in the future showed that the main provinces of pomegranate cultivation would be less affected by climatic conditions by the middle of the century. The results of this study provide valuable information for selection of elite genotypes to develop the breeding programs to obtain the cultivars with the highest levels of metabolic compounds for pharmaceutical purposes, as well as identification of the most suitable agro-ecological zones for orchard establishment.}, }
@article {pmid36734041, year = {2023}, author = {Somani, R}, title = {Global Warming in Pakistan and Its Impact on Public Health as Viewed Through a Health Equity Lens.}, journal = {International journal of social determinants of health and health services}, volume = {53}, number = {2}, pages = {27551938231154467}, pmid = {36734041}, issn = {2755-1946}, abstract = {Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. The recent monsoon season caused widespread, deadly flooding, affecting 15% of the total population when extreme heat waves were followed by the worst rains and floods in the country's history. But Pakistan was not the cause of its own misfortune. The atmospheric buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the greatest contributor to climate change. If we look at the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, we find that Pakistan is, like all developing nations, essentially a non-contributor of the problem, contributing considerably less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, although significant factors exacerbating the effects of climate change in Pakistan include an inadequate sewage system, air pollution from industrial waste, and deforestation, the country could not afford to proactively fix these, nor prepare for flooding and heavy rains. It lacks the funding for climate resilience efforts. As a result, Pakistan is suffering from a high prevalence of poor health outcomes. Children, the elderly, women, and the homeless, especially those living with poverty and disease, are at a high risk of morbidity and mortality. Since mitigating the devastating effects of climate change will continue to be an ongoing challenge for Pakistan, it urgently needs financial investment so that it can build climate-resilient infrastructures and institute mechanisms to deal with global warming's worst effects. Industrialized nations are responsible for global warming, and they must take responsibility for fighting global warming by helping developing countries cultivate greater public health emergency preparedness.}, }
@article {pmid36731411, year = {2023}, author = {Mo, C and Lai, S and Yang, Q and Huang, K and Lei, X and Yang, L and Yan, Z and Jiang, C}, title = {A comprehensive assessment of runoff dynamics in response to climate change and human activities in a typical karst watershed, southwest China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {332}, number = {}, pages = {117380}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117380}, pmid = {36731411}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Water Movements ; Water Resources ; Human Activities ; China ; Rivers ; Water ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {The Chengbi River Basin is a typical karst watershed in Southwest China. Understanding the effects of climate change (CC) and human activities (HAs) on hydrological process is important for regional water resources management and water security. However, a comprehensive assessment of the effects of CC and HAs on runoff dynamics at different time scales in the Chengbi River Basin is still lacking. To address these needs, we used Budyko Mezentsev-Choudhurdy-Yang and Slope change ratio of accumulative quantity methods to assess the contribution of the changing environment to annual and intra-annual runoff changes in the Chengbi River Basin. The results indicated that annual runoff time series was divided into the base phase Ta (1980-1996) and the change phase Tb (1997-2019). Compared to the natural status in Ta, the relative contributions of CC and HAs to the runoff increase in Tb were 154.86% and -54.86%. In addition, the shift in intra-annual runoff occurred in 2007 and was mainly caused by HAs, with a contribution rate of 76.22%. The increase in annual runoff in Tb could be attributed to the positive contribution of rainfall. Changes in rainfall and reservoir construction altered the original state of intra-annual runoff. Furthermore, the high degree of heterogeneity in the surface karst zone increased the runoff coefficient. The spatial unsaturation of the subsurface water-bearing media and rainfall patterns caused a significant lag effect in the response of surface runoff to rainfall. This study can help researchers and policy makers to better understand the response of karst runoff to changing environment and provide insights for future water resources management and flood control measures.}, }
@article {pmid36731185, year = {2023}, author = {Tee Lewis, PG and Chiu, WA and Nasser, E and Proville, J and Barone, A and Danforth, C and Kim, B and Prozzi, J and Craft, E}, title = {Characterizing vulnerabilities to climate change across the United States.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {172}, number = {}, pages = {107772}, pmid = {36731185}, issn = {1873-6750}, support = {P30 ES029067/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P42 ES027704/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {United States ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Risk ; Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Climate change will cause a range of related risks, including increases in infectious and chronic disease, intensified social and economic stresses, and more frequent extreme weather events. Vulnerable groups will be disproportionately affected due to greater exposure to climate risks and lower ability to prepare, adapt, and recover from their effects. Better understanding of the intersection of vulnerability and climate change risks is required to identify the most important drivers of future climate risks and effectively build resilience and deploy targeted adaptation efforts. Incorporating community stakeholder input, we identified and integrated available public health, social, economic, environmental, and climate data in the United States (U.S.), comprising 184 indicators, to develop a Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) composed of four baseline vulnerabilities (health, social/economic, infrastructure, and environment) and three climate change risks (health, social/economic, extreme events). We find that the vulnerability to and risks from climate change are highly heterogeneous across the U.S. at the census tract scale, and geospatially cluster into complementary areas with similar climate risks but differing baseline vulnerabilities. Our results therefore demonstrate that not only are climate change risks both broadly and variably distributed across the U.S., but also that existing disparities are often further exacerbated by climate change. The CVI thus lays a data-driven, scientific foundation for future research on the intersection of climate change risks with health and other inequalities, while also identifying health impacts of climate change as the greatest research gap. Moreover, given U.S. government initiatives surrounding climate and equity, the CVI can be instrumental in empowering communities and policymakers to better prioritize resources and target interventions, providing a template for addressing local-scale climate and environmental justice globally.}, }
@article {pmid36730175, year = {2023}, author = {Le Moyne, C and Roberts, P and Hua, Q and Bleasdale, M and Desideri, J and Boivin, N and Crowther, A}, title = {Ecological flexibility and adaptation to past climate change in the Middle Nile Valley: A multiproxy investigation of dietary shifts between the Neolithic and Kerma periods at Kadruka 1 and Kadruka 21.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {e0280347}, pmid = {36730175}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; History, Ancient ; *Climate Change ; *Animals, Domestic ; Agriculture ; Isotopes ; Edible Grain ; Archaeology ; Diet ; Poaceae ; }, abstract = {Human responses to climate change have long been at the heart of discussions of past economic, social, and political change in the Nile Valley of northeastern Africa. Following the arrival of Neolithic groups in the 6th millennium BCE, the Northern Dongola Reach of Upper Nubia witnessed a cultural florescence manifested through elaborate funerary traditions. However, despite the wealth of archaeological data available from funerary contexts, including evidence for domesticated animals and plants as grave goods, the paucity of stratified habitation contexts hinders interpretation of local subsistence trajectories. While it is recognised archaeologically that, against the backdrop of increasing environmental deterioration, the importance of agriculture based on Southwest Asian winter cereals increased throughout the Kerma period (2500-1450 BCE), the contribution of domesticated cereals to earlier Neolithic herding economies remains unclear. This paper presents direct dietary data from a total of 55 Middle Neolithic and Kerma period individuals from Kadruka 21 and Kadruka 1. Microbotanical data obtained from human dental calculus and grave sediments are integrated with human and faunal stable isotopes to explore changes in dietary breadth over time. The combined results demonstrate the consumption of wild plant species, including C4 wetland adapted grasses, by Middle Neolithic individuals at Kadruka 1. Despite existing evidence for domesticated barley in associated graves, the results obtained in this study provide no clear evidence for the routine consumption of domesticated cereals by Middle Neolithic individuals. Rather, direct microparticle evidence for the consumption of Triticeae cereals is only associated with a single Kerma period individual and corresponds with an isotopic shift indicating a greater contribution of C3-derived resources to diet. These results provide evidence for Neolithic dietary flexibility in Upper Nubia through the persistence of foraging activities and support existing evidence linking increased agricultural reliance to the development of the Kerma culture.}, }
@article {pmid36729985, year = {2023}, author = {Errett, NA and Dolan, K and Hartwell, C and Vickery, J and Hess, JJ}, title = {Climate Change Adaptation Activities and Needs in US State and Territorial Health Agencies.}, journal = {Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {E115-E123}, doi = {10.1097/PHH.0000000000001674}, pmid = {36729985}, issn = {1550-5022}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Pandemics ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Public Health/methods ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To characterize US State and Territorial Health Agencies' (S/THA) climate change adaptation activities and priorities to facilitate appropriate investments, skills development, and support that will strengthen health sector capacity in response to a changing climate.<br><br>DESIGN: In 2021, we conducted an online survey of S/THA staff requesting information on current activities related to climate change and health, the state of climate and health programming, and anticipated needs and priorities for assistance. We analyzed survey results using descriptive statistics.<br><br>SETTING: US State and Territorial Health Agencies.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: We received responses from 41 of 59 S/THAs (69.5%).<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Implementation of S/THA climate and health programs (CHPs); engagement in climate and health activities; maintenance of hazard early warning systems and action plans; employment of climate and health communications strategies; capability to assess risks and adaptation needs related to various climate-sensitive conditions; priorities and plans for climate change adaptation in relation to climate-sensitive health risks; climate change adaptation-related partnerships and collaborations; requests of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) for advancing climate change adaptation activities; and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change work.<br><br>RESULTS: Nineteen S/THAs reported having CHPs, the majority of which are federally funded. On average, S/THAs without CHPs reported engagement in fewer climate and health activities and more early warning activities. The S/THAs reported the highest levels of concerns regarding non-vector-borne infectious disease (66%), vector-borne infectious diseases (61%), and extreme heat (61%) hazards.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As S/THAs with CHPs report substantially greater climate and health capacity than those without, additional federal and state investments (eg, Building Resilience Against Climate Effects [BRACE]) are urgently needed to catalyze climate and health capacity.}, }
@article {pmid36729624, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Climate Change and Vectorborne Diseases.}, journal = {The Pediatric infectious disease journal}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {211}, doi = {10.1097/INF.0000000000003806}, pmid = {36729624}, issn = {1532-0987}, }
@article {pmid36727294, year = {2023}, author = {Winter, N and Marchand, R and Lehmann, C and Nehlin, L and Trapannone, R and Rokvić, D and Dobbelaere, J}, title = {The paradox of the life sciences: How to address climate change in the lab: How to address climate change in the lab.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {e56683}, pmid = {36727294}, issn = {1469-3178}, support = {F7904B/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; 847548/MCCC_/Marie Curie/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Biological Science Disciplines ; }, abstract = {Addressing climate change and sustainability starts with individuals and moves up to institutional change. Here is what we as scientists in the life sciences can do to enact change.}, }
@article {pmid36726592, year = {2022}, author = {De Toni, L and Finocchi, F and Jawich, K and Ferlin, A}, title = {Global warming and testis function: A challenging crosstalk in an equally challenging environmental scenario.}, journal = {Frontiers in cell and developmental biology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1104326}, pmid = {36726592}, issn = {2296-634X}, abstract = {Environmental pollution, accounting for both chemical and physical factors, is a major matter of concern due to its health consequences in both humans and animals. The release of greenhouse gases with the consequent increase in environmental temperature is acknowledged to have a major impact on the health of both animals and humans, in current and future generations. A large amount of evidence reports detrimental effects of acute heat stress on testis function, particularly on the spermatogenetic and steroidogenetic process, in both animal and human models, wich is largely related to the testis placement within the scrotal sac and outside the abdomen, warranting an overall scrotal temperature of 2°C-4°C lower than the core body temperature. This review will provide a thorough evaluation of environmental temperature's effect on testicular function. In particular, basic concepts of body thermoregulation will be discussed together with available data about the association between testis damage and heat stress exposure. In addition, the possible association between global warming and the secular decline of testis function will be critically evaluated in light of the available epidemiological studies.}, }
@article {pmid36725902, year = {2023}, author = {Souza, PGC and Aidoo, OF and Farnezi, PKB and Heve, WK and Júnior, PAS and Picanço, MC and Ninsin, KD and Ablormeti, FK and Shah, MA and Siddiqui, SA and Silva, RS}, title = {Tamarixia radiata global distribution to current and future climate using the climate change experiment (CLIMEX) model.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1823}, pmid = {36725902}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Wasps ; Climate Change ; *Hemiptera/microbiology ; Pest Control, Biological ; *Citrus ; Plant Diseases ; *Rhizobiaceae ; }, abstract = {The phloem-limited bacteria, "Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus" and "Ca. L. americanus", are the causal pathogens responsible for Huanglongbing (HLB). The Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) is the principal vector of these "Ca. Liberibacter" species. Though Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) has been useful in biological control programmes against D. citri, information on its global distribution remains vague. Using the Climate Change Experiment (CLIMEX) model, the potential global distribution of T. radiata under the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B and A2 was defined globally. The results showed that habitat suitability for T. radiata covered Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, and the Americas. The model predicted climate suitable areas for T. radiata beyond its presently known native and non-native areas. The new locations predicted to have habitat suitability for T. radiata included parts of Europe and Oceania. Under the different climate change scenarios, the model predicted contraction of high habitat suitability (EI > 30) for T. radiata from the 2050s to the 2090s. Nevertheless, the distribution maps created using the CLIMEX model may be helpful in the search for and release of T. radiata in new regions.}, }
@article {pmid36725397, year = {2023}, author = {Kou, W and Gao, Y and Zhang, S and Cai, W and Geng, G and Davis, SJ and Wang, H and Guo, X and Cheng, W and Zeng, X and Ma, M and Wang, H and Wang, Q and Yao, X and Gao, H and Wu, L}, title = {High downward surface solar radiation conducive to ozone pollution more frequent under global warming.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {68}, number = {4}, pages = {388-392}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2023.01.022}, pmid = {36725397}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid36723260, year = {2023}, author = {Roberts, HP and Willey, LL and Jones, MT and Akre, TSB and King, DI and Kleopfer, J and Brown, DJ and Buchanan, SW and Chandler, HC and deMaynadier, P and Winters, M and Erb, L and Gipe, KD and Johnson, G and Lauer, K and Liebgold, EB and Mays, JD and Meck, JR and Megyesy, J and Mota, JL and Nazdrowicz, NH and Oxenrider, KJ and Parren, M and Ransom, TS and Rohrbaugh, L and Smith, S and Yorks, D and Zarate, B}, title = {Is the future female for turtles? Climate change and wetland configuration predict sex ratios of a freshwater species.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {2643-2654}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16625}, pmid = {36723260}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NR193A750023C003//Natural Resources Conservation Service/ ; 2017-00//Northeast's Regional Conservation Needs Program/ ; F15AC00965//U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/ ; F18AP00182//U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/ ; WVA00820//USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Male ; *Climate Change ; *Turtles/physiology ; Sex Ratio ; Wetlands ; Fresh Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change and land-use change are leading drivers of biodiversity decline, affecting demographic parameters that are important for population persistence. For example, scientists have speculated for decades that climate change may skew adult sex ratios in taxa that express temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), but limited evidence exists that this phenomenon is occurring in natural settings. For species that are vulnerable to anthropogenic land-use practices, differential mortality among sexes may also skew sex ratios. We sampled the spotted turtle (Clemmys guttata), a freshwater species with TSD, across a large portion of its geographic range (Florida to Maine), to assess the environmental factors influencing adult sex ratios. We present evidence that suggests recent climate change has potentially skewed the adult sex ratio of spotted turtles, with samples following a pattern of increased proportions of females concomitant with warming trends, but only within the warmer areas sampled. At intermediate temperatures, there was no relationship with climate, while in the cooler areas we found the opposite pattern, with samples becoming more male biased with increasing temperatures. These patterns might be explained in part by variation in relative adaptive capacity via phenotypic plasticity in nest site selection. Our findings also suggest that spotted turtles have a context-dependent and multi-scale relationship with land use. We observed a negative relationship between male proportion and the amount of crop cover (within 300 m) when wetlands were less spatially aggregated. However, when wetlands were aggregated, sex ratios remained consistent. This pattern may reflect sex-specific patterns in movement that render males more vulnerable to mortality from agricultural machinery and other threats. Our findings highlight the complexity of species' responses to both climate change and land use, and emphasize the role that landscape structure can play in shaping wildlife population demographics.}, }
@article {pmid36723077, year = {2023}, author = {Lennon, JT and Frost, SDW and Nguyen, NK and Peralta, AL and Place, AR and Treseder, KK}, title = {Microbiology and Climate Change: a Transdisciplinary Imperative.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e0333522}, pmid = {36723077}, issn = {2150-7511}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Policy ; Technology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a complex problem involving nonlinearities and feedback that operate across scales. No single discipline or way of thinking can effectively address the climate crisis. Teams of natural scientists, social scientists, engineers, economists, and policymakers must work together to understand, predict, and mitigate the rapidly accelerating impacts of climate change. Transdisciplinary approaches are urgently needed to address the role that microorganisms play in climate change. Here, we demonstrate with case studies how diverse teams and perspectives provide climate-change insight related to the range expansion of emerging fungal pathogens, technological solutions for harmful cyanobacterial blooms, and the prediction of disease-causing microorganisms and their vector populations using massive networks of monitoring stations. To serve as valuable members of a transdisciplinary climate research team, microbiologists must reach beyond the boundaries of their immediate areas of scientific expertise and engage in efforts to build open-minded teams aimed at scalable technologies and adoptable policies.}, }
@article {pmid36721991, year = {2023}, author = {Varghese, R and Patel, P and Kumar, D and Sharma, R}, title = {Climate change and glacier melting: risks for unusual outbreaks?.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jtm/taad015}, pmid = {36721991}, issn = {1708-8305}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ice Cover ; }, }
@article {pmid36721739, year = {2023}, author = {Burbank, AJ}, title = {Risk Factors for Respiratory Viral Infections: A Spotlight on Climate Change and Air Pollution.}, journal = {Journal of asthma and allergy}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {183-194}, pmid = {36721739}, issn = {1178-6965}, abstract = {Climate change has both direct and indirect effects on human health, and some populations are more vulnerable to these effects than others. Viral respiratory infections are most common illnesses in humans, with estimated 17 billion incident infections globally in 2019. Anthropogenic drivers of climate change, chiefly the emission of greenhouse gases and toxic pollutants from burning of fossil fuels, and the consequential changes in temperature, precipitation, and frequency of extreme weather events have been linked with increased susceptibility to viral respiratory infections. Air pollutants like nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, diesel exhaust particles, and ozone have been shown to impact susceptibility and immune responses to viral infections through various mechanisms, including exaggerated or impaired innate and adaptive immune responses, disruption of the airway epithelial barrier, altered cell surface receptor expression, and impaired cytotoxic function. An estimated 90% of the world's population is exposed to air pollution, making this a topic with high relevance to human health. This review summarizes the available epidemiologic and experimental evidence for an association between climate change, air pollution, and viral respiratory infection.}, }
@article {pmid36721132, year = {2023}, author = {Casson, N and Cameron, L and Mauro, I and Friesen-Hughes, K and Rocque, R}, title = {Perceptions of the health impacts of climate change among Canadians.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {212}, pmid = {36721132}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {1819-HQ-000156//Public Health Agency of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Male ; Humans ; Female ; *Climate Change ; Canada ; Educational Status ; *Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Psychological ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Understanding public perceptions of the health risks of climate change is critical to inform risk communication and support the adoption of adaptive behaviours. In Canada, very few studies have explored public understandings and perceptions of climate impacts on health. The objective of this study was to address this gap by exploring perceptions of the link between climate change and health.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a survey of Canadians (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;3,014) to address this objective. The 116-question survey measured prior consideration of the link between climate change and health, affective assessment of climate health impacts, unprompted knowledge of climate health impacts, and concern about a range of impacts. ANOVA tests were used to assess differences among sociodemographic groups.<br><br>RESULTS: Overall, Canadian's have a similar level of concern about health impacts of climate change compared with concern about other impacts (e.g. biophysical, economic, and national security). Among health-related impacts, respondents were more concerned about impacts on water, food and air quality, compared with impacts on mental health, infectious diseases and heat-related illnesses. There were differences among sociodemographic groups; women were significantly more concerned than men about all of the health-related impacts; respondents with a high school level of education were significantly less concerned about all health-related impacts compared with respondents with more education; and respondents on the political left were more concerned with those in the political centre, who were more concerned than those on the political right.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There is emerging literature suggesting that framing communication around climate change in terms of the health risks it poses may increase perceptions of the proximity of the risks. These results suggest that it is important to be specific in the types of health risks that are communicated, and to consider the concerns of the target sociodemographic groups. The differential knowledge, awareness, and concern of climate health impacts across segments of the Canadian population can inform targeted communication and engagement to build broader support for adaptation and mitigation measures.}, }
@article {pmid36720921, year = {2023}, author = {Erhart, S and Erhart, K}, title = {Environmental ranking of European industrial facilities by toxicity and global warming potentials.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1772}, pmid = {36720921}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Humans ; *Global Warming ; Climate Change ; Carbon Footprint ; *Environmental Pollutants ; Manufacturing and Industrial Facilities ; }, abstract = {We present a methodology to develop the integrated toxicity and climate change risk assessment of Europe based facilities, industries and regions. There is an increasingly important need for large scale sustainability measurement solutions for company reporting with high granularity. In this paper we measure key aspects of Sustainable Development Goals in terms of human, cancer and non-cancer toxicity, ecotoxicity together with global warming impact potentials from point source pollutant releases of more than 10,000 companies and their 33,000 facilities in Europe from 2001 to 2017, by using the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register. For our assessment, we deploy a scientific consensus model, USEtox for characterizing human and ecotoxicological impacts of chemicals and the global warming potential values from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss water and air emissions of dozens of pollutants in urban, rural, coastal and inland areas. Companies in the electricity production sector are estimated to have the largest human toxicity impact potential (46% of total) and the largest global warming impact potential (50%), while companies in the sewerage sector have the largest ecotoxicity impact potential (50%). In the overall economy, the correlation between facilities' global warming and toxicity impact potentials is positive, however, not very strong. Therefore, we argue that carbon footprint of industrial organizations can be only used as a climate change risk indicator, but not as an overall environmental performance indicator. We confirm impact potentials of major pollutants in previous research papers (Hg accounting for 76% of the total human toxicity and Zn accounting for 68% of total ecotoxicity), although we draw the attention to the limitations of USEtox in case of metals. From 2001 to 2017 total human toxicity dropped by 28%, although the downward trend reversed in 2016. Ecotoxicity and global warming impact potentials remained unchanged in the same period. Finally, we show that the European pollutant release monitoring data quality could be further improved, as only three quarters of the toxic releases are measured in the Member States of the European Union, and a high share of toxic pollutant releases are only estimated in some countries. Of the measured or calculated toxic releases, only one third is reported according to the most robust CEN/ISO standards and about one fifth according to the least preferred other methods, like engineering judgements.}, }
@article {pmid36720578, year = {2023}, author = {Diallo, T and Roberge, M and Bérubé, A and Audate, PP}, title = {Integrating climate change into nursing curricula and continuing education: a scoping review protocol.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {e068520}, pmid = {36720578}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Education, Continuing ; Curriculum ; Databases, Bibliographic ; Dietary Supplements ; Review Literature as Topic ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change constitutes a major threat to human health. Nurses have an essential role to play in protecting populations from this threat, and to fulfil this role, they must be properly prepared. The purpose of this scoping review is to examine studies on the integration of climate change into the academic curriculum or continuing education of nurses so as to identify issues and opportunities related to this integration.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The method being used is the methodological framework proposed by Arksey and O'Malley and Levac et al. First, a search strategy using keywords and their combinations will be developed. This strategy will be applied in four bibliographic databases: MEDLINE (PubMed), CINAHL, Embase, Web of Science. Second, an initial selection of studies based on titles and abstracts will be carried out by two members of the research team using the software Covidence. They will conduct this selection process independently, with the aim of identifying relevant studies that meet the inclusion criteria for our scoping review. Third, the second stage in the selection process will be carried out by examining the full text of each article to determine which studies to include in the review. Finally, data on year of publication, authors, geographical area, article type, study objectives, methodology and key findings will be extracted from selected articles for analysis. A search of the grey literature will also be conducted to supplement the results of the bibliographic database search. The scoping review is currently ongoing. Identification of relevant literature began in the first quarter of 2022 and is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2023.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required for this review. The results of this study will be presented in workshops and conferences and be submitted for publication to a peer-reviewed journal.}, }
@article {pmid36719685, year = {2023}, author = {Smith, MW and O'Shea, AMJ and Wray, CM}, title = {Health Care and Climate Change-Telemedicine's Role in Environmental Stewardship.}, journal = {JAMA network open}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {e2253794}, doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.53794}, pmid = {36719685}, issn = {2574-3805}, support = {IK2 HX003139/HX/HSRD VA/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Telemedicine ; Health Facilities ; }, }
@article {pmid36716568, year = {2023}, author = {Le, CTU and Paul, WL and Gawne, B and Suter, P}, title = {Integrating simulation models and statistical models using causal modelling principles to predict aquatic macroinvertebrate responses to climate change.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {231}, number = {}, pages = {119661}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2023.119661}, pmid = {36716568}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Models, Statistical ; Water Quality ; Australia ; Rivers/chemistry ; Environmental Monitoring ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change is projected to threaten ecological communities through changes in temperature, rainfall, runoff patterns, and mediated changes in other environmental variables. Their combined effects are difficult to comprehend without the mathematical machinery of causal modelling. Using piecewise structural equation modelling, we aim to predict the responses of aquatic macroinvertebrate total abundance and richness to disturbances generated by climate change. Our approach involves integrating an existing hydroclimate-salinity model for the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, into our recently developed statistical models for macroinvertebrates using long-term monitoring data on macroinvertebrates, water quality, climate, and hydrology, spanning 2,300 km of the Murray River. Our exercise demonstrates the potential of causal modelling for integrating data and models from different sources. As such, optimal use of valuable existing data and merits of previously developed models in the field can be made for exploring the effects of future climate change and management interventions.}, }
@article {pmid36716544, year = {2023}, author = {Vacek, Z and Vacek, S and Cukor, J}, title = {European forests under global climate change: Review of tree growth processes, crises and management strategies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {332}, number = {}, pages = {117353}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117353}, pmid = {36716544}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Trees ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Forestry/methods ; Introduced Species ; }, abstract = {The ongoing global climate change is challenging all sectors, forestry notwithstanding. On the one hand, forest ecosystems are exposed to and threatened by climate change, but on the other hand, forests can influence the course of climate change by regulating the water regime, air quality, carbon sequestration, and even reduce climate extremes. Therefore, it is crucial to see climate change not only as a risk causing forest disturbances and economic consequences but also as an opportunity for innovative approaches to forest management, conservation, and silviculture based on the results of long-term research. We reviewed 365 studies evaluating the impact of climate change on European forest ecosystems, all published during the last 30 years (1993-2022). The most significant consequences of climate change include more frequent and destructive large-scale forest disturbances (wildfire, windstorm, drought, flood, bark beetle, root rot), and tree species migration. Species distribution shifts and changes in tree growth rate have substantial effects on ecosystem carbon storage. Diameter/volume increment changed from -1 to +99% in Central and Northern Europe, while it decreased from -12 to -49% in Southern Europe across tree species over the last ca. 50 years. However, it is important to sharply focus on the causes of climate change and subsequently, on adaptive strategies, which can successfully include the creation of species-diverse, spatially and age-wise structured stands (decrease drought stress and increase production), prolongation of the regenerative period, or the use of suitable introduced tree species (e.g., Douglas fir, black pine, and Mediterranean oaks). But the desired changes are based on increasing diversity and the mitigation of climate change, and will require significantly higher initial costs for silviculture practices. In conclusion, the scope and complexity of the topic require further comprehensive and long-term studies focusing on international cooperation. We see a critical gap in the transfer of research results into actual forest practice, which will be the key factor influencing afforestation of forest stands and forest growth in the following decades. What our forests will look like for future generations and what the resulting impact of climate change will be on forestry is in the hands of forest managers, depending on supportive forestry research and climate change policy, including adaptive and mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid36716539, year = {2023}, author = {Shen, C and Wang, Y}, title = {Concerned or Apathetic? Exploring online public opinions on climate change from 2008 to 2019: A Comparative study between China and other G20 countries.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {332}, number = {}, pages = {117376}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117376}, pmid = {36716539}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Opinion ; China ; }, abstract = {G20 countries, account for the majority of global carbon emissions, need to take the lead in mitigating climate change. However, there are differences in economic, political and sociocultural backgrounds amongst G20 countries, especially between China and other G20 countries. Since the implementation of climate policies largely require domestic public support, it is vital to explore similarities and differences of public opinions on climate issues between China and other G20 countries. However, little research has investigated the micro-level climate concerns from the perspective of cross-country differences. Therefore, based on big data and text mining analysis, this study crawled user-generated data on Sina Weibo (N = 271,487) and Twitter (N = 4,874,546) from 2008 to 2019 to comprehensively catalog and compare climate opinions. Results show that climate change has become a salient issue in China and other G20 countries, with climate-related surges in public opinions always occurring after major natural, social and political events. Moreover, in China, there has been a significant shift in public attention from climate impacts to climate mitigation strategies, but in other G20 countries, people are more radical by emphasizing the climate movement and calling for authoritative actions. This study provides "snapshots" of climate communication and offers a quantification-based reference for promoting climate actions and collaborative governance.}, }
@article {pmid36716485, year = {2022}, author = {Mahanes, SA and Bracken, MES and Sorte, CJB}, title = {Climate Change Amelioration by Marine Producers: Does Dominance Predict Impact?.}, journal = {The Biological bulletin}, volume = {243}, number = {3}, pages = {299-314}, doi = {10.1086/721229}, pmid = {36716485}, issn = {1939-8697}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Seawater ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Biodiversity ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {AbstractClimate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, and assessing how those changes will impact communities will be critical for conservation. Dominant primary producers can alter local-scale environmental conditions, reducing temperature via shading and mitigating ocean acidification via photosynthesis, which could buffer communities from the impacts of climate change. We conducted two experiments on the coast of southeastern Alaska to assess the effects of a common seaweed species, Neorhodomela oregona, on temperature and pH in field tide pools and tide pool mesocosms. We found that N. oregona was numerically dominant in this system, covering >60% of habitable space in the pools and accounting for >40% of live cover. However, while N. oregona had a density-dependent effect on pH in isolated mesocosms, we did not find a consistent effect of N. oregona on either pH or water temperature in tide pools in the field. These results suggest that the amelioration of climate change impacts in immersed marine ecosystems by primary producers is not universal and likely depends on species' functional attributes, including photosynthetic rate and physical structure, in addition to abundance or dominance.}, }
@article {pmid36716375, year = {2023}, author = {Diffenbaugh, NS and Barnes, EA}, title = {Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {6}, pages = {e2207183120}, pmid = {36716375}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output, we use the spatial pattern of historical temperature observations to predict the time until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Although no observations are used during the training, validation, or testing, the ANNs accurately predict the timing of historical global warming from maps of historical annual temperature. The central estimate for the 1.5 °C global warming threshold is between 2033 and 2035, including a ±1σ range of 2028 to 2039 in the Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) climate forcing scenario, consistent with previous assessments. However, our data-driven approach also suggests a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 °C threshold even in the Low (SSP1-2.6) climate forcing scenario. While there are limitations to our approach, our results suggest a higher likelihood of reaching 2 °C in the Low scenario than indicated in some previous assessments-though the possibility that 2 °C could be avoided is not ruled out. Explainable AI methods reveal that the ANNs focus on particular geographic regions to predict the time until the global threshold is reached. Our framework provides a unique, data-driven approach for quantifying the signal of climate change in historical observations and for constraining the uncertainty in climate model projections. Given the substantial existing evidence of accelerating risks to natural and human systems at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, our results provide further evidence for high-impact climate change over the next three decades.}, }
@article {pmid36716334, year = {2023}, author = {El Atfy, H and Coiffard, C and El Beialy, SY and Uhl, D}, title = {Vegetation and climate change at the southern margin of the Neo-Tethys during the Cenomanian (Late Cretaceous): Evidence from Egypt.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {e0281008}, pmid = {36716334}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Egypt ; Spores, Protozoan ; Fossils ; *Tracheophyta ; Plants ; *Magnoliopsida ; *Ferns ; }, abstract = {Changes in terrestrial vegetation during the mid-Cretaceous and their link to climate and environmental change are poorly understood. In this study, we use plant macrofossils and analysis of fossil pollen and spores from the Western Desert, Egypt, to assess temporal changes in plant communities during the Cenomanian. The investigated strata have relatively diverse sporomorph assemblages, which reflect the nature of parent vegetation. Specifically, the palynofloras represent ferns, conifers, monosulcate pollen producers, Gnetales, and a diverse group of angiosperms. Comparisons of both, dispersed palynoflora and plant macrofossils reveal different characteristics of the palaeoflora owing to a plethora of taphonomical and ecological biases including the depositional environment, production levels, and discrepancies between different plant organs. A combination of detailed records of sporomorphs, leaves, and charcoal from the studied successions provide new understandings of the palaeoclimate and palaeogeography during the Cenomanian and Albian-Cenomanian transition in Egypt. The mixed composition of the palynofloral assemblages reflects the presence of different depositional situations with a weak marine influence, as evidenced by a minor dinoflagellate cysts component. The local vegetation comprised various categories including herbaceous groups including ferns and eudicots, fluvial, open environments, and xeric arboreal communities dominated by Cheirolepidiaceae and perhaps including drought- and/or salt-tolerating ferns (Anemiaceae) and other gymnosperms (Araucariaceae, Ginkgoales, Cycadales, and Gnetales) as well as angiosperms. The presence of riparian and freshwater wetland communities favouring aquatic and/or hygrophilous ferns (of Salviniaceae and Marsileaceae), is noted. The wide variation of depositional settings derived from the palynological data may be attributed to a prevalent occurrence of producers in local vegetation during the early Cenomanian of Egypt. For the purpose of this work on the studied Bahariya Formation and its equivalent rock units, where iconic dinosaurs and other fossil fauna roamed, we attempt to improve the understanding of Egypt's Cenomanian climate, which is reconstructed as generally warm and humid punctuated by phases of considerably drier conditions of varying duration.}, }
@article {pmid36716308, year = {2023}, author = {Kolanowska, M and Michalska, E}, title = {The effect of global warming on the Australian endemic orchid Cryptostylis leptochila and its pollinator.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {e0280922}, pmid = {36716308}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Male ; *Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Australia ; Reproduction ; Pollination ; Insecta ; *Orchidaceae/genetics ; Flowers ; }, abstract = {Ecological stability together with the suitability of abiotic conditions are crucial for long-term survival of any organism and the maintenance of biodiversity and self-sustainable ecosystems relies on species interactions. By influencing resource availability plants affect the composition of plant communities and ultimately ecosystem functioning. Plant-animal interactions are very complex and include a variety of exploitative and mutualistic relationships. One of the most important mutualistic interactions is that between plants and their pollinators. Coevolution generates clustered links between plants and their pollen vectors, but the pollination and reproductive success of plants is reduced by increase in the specialization of plant-animal interactions. One of the most specialized types of pollination is sexual deception, which occurs almost exclusively in Orchidaceae. In this form of mimicry, male insects are attracted to orchid flowers by chemical compounds that resemble insect female sex pheromones and pollinate the flowers during attempted copulations. These interactions are often species-specific with each species of orchid attracting only males of one or very few closely related species of insects. For sexually deceptive orchids the presence of a particular pollen vector is crucial for reproductive success and any reduction in pollinator availability constitutes a threat to the orchid. Because global warming is rapidly becoming the greatest threat to all organisms by re-shaping the geographical ranges of plants, animals and fungi, this paper focuses on predicting the effect of global warming on Cryptostylis leptochila, a terrestrial endemic in eastern Australia that is pollinated exclusively via pseudo copulation with Lissopimpla excelsa. As a species with a single pollinator this orchid is a perfect model for studies on the effect of global warming on plants and their pollen vectors. According to our predictions, global warming will cause a significant loss of suitable niches for C. leptochila. The potential range of this orchid will be 36%-75% smaller than currently and as a result the Eastern Highlands will become unsuitable for C. leptochila. On the other hand, some new niches will become available for this species in Tasmania. Simultaneously, climate change will result in a substantial expansion of niches suitable for the pollinator (44-82%). Currently ca. 71% of the geographical range of the orchid is also suitable for L. excelsa, therefore, almost 30% of the areas occupied by C. leptochila already lack the pollen vector. The predicted availability of the pollen vector increased under three of the climate change scenarios analysed. The predicted habitat loss is a serious threat to this orchid even with the potential colonization of Tasmania by this plant. In the reduced range of C. leptochila the pollen vector will also be present assuring fruit set in populations of this orchid. The genetic pool of the populations in New South Wales and Queensland will probably be lost.}, }
@article {pmid36715961, year = {2023}, author = {Gershoni, M}, title = {Transgenerational transmission of environmental effects in livestock in the age of global warming.}, journal = {Cell stress &amp; chaperones}, volume = {28}, number = {5}, pages = {445-454}, pmid = {36715961}, issn = {1466-1268}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Epigenesis, Genetic ; *Global Warming ; *Livestock ; Phenotype ; }, abstract = {Recent decades provide mounting evidence for the continual increase in global temperatures, now termed "global warming," to the point of drastic worldwide change in the climate. Climatic change is a long-term shift in temperatures and weather patterns, including increased frequency and intensity of extreme environmental events such as heat waves accompanied by extreme temperatures and high humidity. Climate change and global warming put several challenges to the livestock industry by directly affecting the animal's production, reproduction, health, and welfare. The broad impact of global warming, and in particular heat stress, on-farm animals' performance has been comprehensively studied. It has been estimated that the US livestock industry's loss caused by heat stress is up to $2.4 billion annually. However, the long-term intergenerational and transgenerational effects of climatic change and global warming on farm animals are sparse. Transgenerational effects, which are mediated by epigenetic mechanisms, can affect the animal's performance regardless of its immediate environment by altering its phenotypic expression to fit its ancestors' environment. In many animal species, environmental effects are epigenetically encoded within a narrow time interval during the organism's gametogenesis, and these epigenetic modifications can then be intergenerationally transmitted. Several epigenetic mechanisms mediate intergenerational transmission of environmental effects, typically in a parent-dependent manner. Therefore, exposure of the animal to an extreme climatic event and other environmental stressors during gametogenesis can undergo epigenetic stabilization in the germline and be passed to the offspring. As a result, the offspring might express a phenotype adjusted to fit the stressors experienced by their ancestors, regardless of their direct environment. The purpose of this perspective is to review current evidence for intergenerational and transgenerational transmission of environmental stress effects, specifically in the context of global warming and climate change, and to offer viewpoints on the possible impacts on the livestock industry.}, }
@article {pmid36715682, year = {2023}, author = {David-Schwartz, R}, title = {Pine breeding programs in the face of climate change: do we need to change direction?.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {43}, number = {3}, pages = {363-365}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpad011}, pmid = {36715682}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {*Pinus/growth &amp; development ; Climate Change ; Plant Breeding ; Xylem ; }, }
@article {pmid36714727, year = {2022}, author = {Qin, M and Gao, X and Feng, M and Jin, N and Wang, C and Cheng, W}, title = {Modeling of the potential geographical distribution of naked oat under climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1009577}, pmid = {36714727}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Naked oat (Avena sativa L.), is an important miscellaneous grain crop in China, which is rich in protein, amino acids, fat and soluble dietary fiber. The demand for functional foods is gradually increasing as living standards rise, and the output of minor cereals in China is increasing annually. The planting layout of naked oat is scattered and lacks planning, which seriously restricts the development of the naked oat industry. The increase in miscellaneous grain production will not only be impacted by cultivation methods and management techniques, but the potential impact of global climate change needs to be considered. North China is the main area for naked oat production, worldwide.<br><br>METHODS: In this study, the potential distribution range of naked oat in North China was forecast based on historical distribution data and the Maxent model under climate change conditions. The performance of the model was relatively high.<br><br>RESULTS: The results indicated that the most suitable area for the potential geographic distribution of naked oat in North China was 27.89&#xd7;104 km[2], including central and northeastern Shanxi, and northeastern and western Hebei and Beijing, gradually moving northward. The core suitable area increased, and the distribution of naked oat had an obvious regional response to climate warming; the main environmental factors affecting the potential geographic distribution were precipitation factor variables (precipitation seasonality (variation coefficient)), terrain factor variables (elevation) and temperature factor variables (temperature seasonality (Standard Deviation*100)).<br><br>DISCUSSION: In this study, the Maxent model was used to analyze and predict suitable areas for naked oat in North China, and the distribution of suitable areas was accurately divided, and the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of naked oat were identified. This research provides data support and theoretical support for the optimal planting zone of naked oat in North China.}, }
@article {pmid36714699, year = {2022}, author = {Yahya, M and Rasul, M and Hussain, SZ and Dilawar, A and Ullah, M and Rajput, L and Afzal, A and Asif, M and Wubet, T and Yasmin, S}, title = {Integrated analysis of potential microbial consortia, soil nutritional status, and agro-climatic datasets to modulate P nutrient uptake and yield effectiveness of wheat under climate change resilience.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1074383}, pmid = {36714699}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change has a devastating effect on wheat production; therefore, crop production might decline by 2030. Phosphorus (P) nutrient deficiency is another main limiting factor of reduced yield. Hence, there is a dire need to judiciously consider wheat yield, so that human requirements and nutrition balance can be sustained efficiently. Despite the great significance of biostimulants in sustainable agriculture, there is still a lack of integrated technology encompassing the successful competitiveness of inoculated phosphate-solubilizing bacteria (PSB) in agricultural systems in the context of climatic conditions/meteorological factors and soil nutritional status. Therefore, the present study reveals the modulation of an integrated P nutrient management approach to develop potential PSB consortia for recommended wheat varieties by considering the respective soil health and agro-climatic conditions. The designed consortia were found to maintain adequate viability for up to 9 months, verified through field emission scanning electron microscopy and viable count. Furthermore, a significant increase in grain yield (5%-8%) and seed P (4%) content was observed in consortia-inoculated wheat plants with 20% reduced Diammonium phosphate (DAP) application under net house conditions. Fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis of roots and amplification of the gcd gene of Ochrobactrum sp. SSR indicated the survival and rhizosphere competency of the inoculated PSB. Categorical principal component analysis (CAT-PCA) showed a positive correlation of inoculated field-grown wheat varieties in native soils to grain yield, soil P content, and precipitation for sites belonging to irrigated plains and seed P content, soil organic matter, and number of tillers for sites belonging to Northern dry mountains. However, the impact of inoculation at sites belonging to the Indus delta was found significantly correlated to soil potassium (K) content, electrical conductivity (EC), and temperature. Additionally, a significant increase in grain yield (15%) and seed P (14%) content was observed in inoculated wheat plants. Thus, the present study demonstrates for the first time the need to integrate soil biological health and agro-climatic conditions for consistent performance of augmented PSB and enhanced P nutrient uptake to curtail soil pollution caused by the extensive use of agrochemicals. This study provides innovative insights and identifies key questions for future research on PSB to promote its successful implementation in agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid36714211, year = {2023}, author = {Ongoma, V and Epule, TE and Brouziyne, Y and Tanarhte, M and Chehbouni, A}, title = {COVID-19 response in Africa: impacts and lessons for environmental management and climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Environment, development and sustainability}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-23}, pmid = {36714211}, issn = {1573-2975}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The COVID-19 pandemic adds pressure on Africa; the most vulnerable continent to climate change impacts, threatening the realization of most Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The continent is witnessing an increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, and environmental change. The COVID-19 was managed relatively well across in the continent, providing lessons and impetus for environmental management and addressing climate change. This work examines the possible impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the environment and climate change, analyses its management and draws lessons from it for climate change response in Africa. The data, findings and lessons are drawn from peer reviewed articles and credible grey literature on COVID-19 in Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic spread quickly, causing loss of lives and stagnation of the global economy, overshadowing the current climate crisis. The pandemic was managed through swift response by the top political leadership, research and innovations across Africa providing possible solutions to COVID-19 challenges, and redirection of funds to manage the pandemic. The well-coordinated COVID-19 containment strategy under the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention increased sharing of resources including data was a success in limiting the spread of the virus. These strategies, among others, proved effective in limiting the spread and impact of COVID-19. The findings provide lessons that stakeholders and policy-makers can leverage in the management of the environment and address climate change. These approaches require solid commitment and practical-oriented leadership.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-023-02956-0.}, }
@article {pmid36713958, year = {2023}, author = {Thrippleton, T and Temperli, C and Krumm, F and Mey, R and Zell, J and Stroheker, S and Gossner, MM and Bebi, P and Thürig, E and Schweier, J}, title = {Balancing disturbance risk and ecosystem service provisioning in Swiss mountain forests: an increasing challenge under climate change.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {29}, pmid = {36713958}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change severely affects mountain forests and their ecosystem services, e.g., by altering disturbance regimes. Increasing timber harvest (INC) via a close-to-nature forestry may offer a mitigation strategy to reduce disturbance predisposition. However, little is known about the efficiency of this strategy at the scale of forest enterprises and potential trade-offs with biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES). We applied a decision support system which accounts for disturbance predisposition and BES indicators to evaluate the effect of different harvest intensities and climate change scenarios on windthrow and bark beetle predisposition in a mountain forest enterprise in Switzerland. Simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2100 under historic climate and climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). In terms of BES, biodiversity (structural and tree species diversity, deadwood amount) as well as timber production, recreation (visual attractiveness), carbon sequestration, and protection against gravitational hazards (rockfall, avalanche and landslides) were assessed. The INC strategy reduced disturbance predisposition to windthrow and bark beetles. However, the mitigation potential for bark beetle disturbance was relatively small (- 2.4%) compared to the opposite effect of climate change (+ 14% for RCP8.5). Besides, the INC strategy increased the share of broadleaved species and resulted in a synergy with recreation and timber production, and a trade-off with carbon sequestration and protection function. Our approach emphasized the disproportionally higher disturbance predisposition under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, which may threaten currently unaffected mountain forests. Decision support systems accounting for climate change, disturbance predisposition, and BES can help coping with such complex planning situations.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-022-02015-w.}, }
@article {pmid36712830, year = {2023}, author = {Trummer, U and Ali, T and Mosca, D and Mukuruva, B and Mwenyango, H and Novak-Zezula, S}, title = {Climate change aggravating migration and health issues in the African context: The views and direct experiences of a community of interest in the field.}, journal = {Journal of migration and health}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {100151}, pmid = {36712830}, issn = {2666-6235}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change is an increasingly important theme in Africa, where a large majority of its people depend on livestock and agricultural activities for livelihood. Concurrently, the topic of health of migrants and people on the move is rapidly raising both in the health debate and migration governance agenda in the Region. The link with climate change from the perspective of health and migration experts needs to be systematically addressed.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The article aims to contribute to the discourse on the interrelation of climate change, migration, and health by providing contributions of experts in the field of health and migration directly working with migrant and refugee communities in Africa.<br><br>METHODS: A webinar was conducted to collect and discuss first-hand experience with 25 participants from a postgraduate online course on health and migration funded by the Austrian Government and implemented in a co-operation of the Center for Health and Migration, Austria, with Makerere University, Uganda, the International Organization for Migration - UN Migration, and Lancet-Migration. As a result from the discussions, two cases from Sudan and Zimbabwe were selected to be further analysed with desk research to illustrate and underpin the points made.<br><br>RESULTS: All webinar participants reported to encounter climate change effects on health and migration in their professional practice. In their experience, climate change aggravates issues of health and migration by fueling forced migration and displacement, increasing health care needs, and deteriorating access to health care. Specific health challenges were identified for mental health problems caused by effects of climate change-induced migration, which remain widely undiagnosed and untreated, and the special affectedness of women and girls, with their mental, sexual and reproductive health severely deteriorated in insecure environments. The case studies from Sudan and Zimbabwe underline these observations.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The interplay of effects of climate change, (internal) migration, and health is reported by a community of experts in the field of health and migration who are residing in Africa and working with migrant communities. Webinars prove to be an easy to implement tool to collect first hand evidence from practice experts, to foster exchange of experiences, and to get people engaged in further collaboration and discussion.}, }
@article {pmid36712809, year = {2022}, author = {Rodrigues, RR and Shepherd, TG}, title = {Small is beautiful: climate-change science as if people mattered.}, journal = {PNAS nexus}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {pgac009}, pmid = {36712809}, issn = {2752-6542}, abstract = {There is a widely accepted gap between the production and use of climate information. It is also widely accepted that at least part of the reason for this situation lies in the challenge of bridging between what may be characterized as ''top-down'' approaches to climate information on the global scale, and local decision contexts, which necessarily take a ''bottom-up'' perspective, in which climate change is just one factor among many to consider. We here reflect on the insights provided in a different context-that of economics-by E.F. Schumacher in his celebrated book Small is Beautiful (1973), to see what light they might shed on this challenge, with a focus on climate-change science for adaptation. Schumacher asked how economics might look if it was structured "as if people mattered". We ask the same question of climate-change science, and find many parallels. One is the need to grapple with the complexity of local situations, which can be addressed by expressing climate knowledge in a conditional form. A second is the importance of simplicity when dealing with deep uncertainty, which can be addressed through the use of physical climate storylines. A third is the need to empower local communities to make sense of their own situation, which can be addressed by developing ''intermediate technologies'' that build trust and transparency. Much of climate-change science is necessarily big science. We argue that in order to make climate information useable for adaptation, it is also necessary to discover the beauty of smallness.}, }
@article {pmid36712170, year = {2023}, author = {Lee, EY and Kim, YB and Goo, S and Oyama, O and Lee, J and Kim, G and Lim, H and Sung, H and Yoon, J and Hwang, J and Chung, S and Kang, HJ and Kim, JY and Kim, KI and Kim, Y and Lee, MY and Oh, JW and Park, H and Song, W and Yi, K and Kim, YS and Jeon, JY}, title = {Corrigendum to "Physical activity in the era of climate change and COVID-19 pandemic: Results from the South Korea's 2022 Report Card on physical activity for children and adolescents" [J Exercise Sci Fitness 21(1) (2023) 26-33].}, journal = {Journal of exercise science and fitness}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {177}, doi = {10.1016/j.jesf.2023.01.003}, pmid = {36712170}, issn = {1728-869X}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.jesf.2022.10.014.].}, }
@article {pmid36710892, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {European heart journal. Digital health}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {496-498}, pmid = {36710892}, issn = {2634-3916}, }
@article {pmid36710831, year = {2022}, author = {Carlson, JM and Fang, L and Coughtry-Carpenter, C and Foley, J}, title = {Reliability of attention bias and attention bias variability to climate change images in the dot-probe task.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1021858}, pmid = {36710831}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century, which is perhaps why information about climate change has been found to capture observers' attention. One of the most common ways of assessing individual differences in attentional processing of climate change information is through the use of reaction time difference scores. However, reaction time-based difference scores have come under scrutiny for their low reliability. Given that a primary goal of the field is to link individual differences in attention processing to participant variables (e.g., environmental attitudes), we assessed the reliability of reaction time-based measures of attention processing of climate change information utilizing an existing dataset with three variations of the dot-probe task. Across all three samples, difference score-based measures of attentional bias were generally uncorrelated across task blocks (r = -0.25 to 0.31). We also assessed the reliability of newer attention bias variability measures that are thought to capture dynamic shifts in attention toward and away from salient information. Although these measures were initially found to be correlated across task blocks (r = 0.17-0.67), they also tended to be highly correlated with general reaction time variability (r = 0.49-0.83). When controlling for general reaction time variability, the correlations across task blocks for attention bias variability were much weaker and generally nonsignificant (r = -0.25 to 0.33). Furthermore, these measures were unrelated to pro-environmental disposition indicating poor predictive validity. In short, reaction time-based measures of attentional processing (including difference score and variability-based approaches) have unacceptably low levels of reliability and are therefore unsuitable for capturing individual differences in attentional bias to climate change information.}, }
@article {pmid36710698, year = {2023}, author = {Arnout, BA}, title = {An epidemiological study of mental health problems related to climate change: A procedural framework for mental health system workers.}, journal = {Work (Reading, Mass.)}, volume = {75}, number = {3}, pages = {813-835}, doi = {10.3233/WOR-220040}, pmid = {36710698}, issn = {1875-9270}, mesh = {Male ; Female ; Humans ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Mental Health ; Climate Change ; Pandemics ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Arab region has witnessed different biological hazards, including cholera, yellow fever, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, changes in rainfall and increased vegetation cover led to locust outbreaks in Tunisia, Libya, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia. This problem still exists and affects more than 20 countries and concerns indicate food shortages and food insecurity for more than 20 million people.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to detect mental health problems related to climate change in the Arab world.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional descriptive survey was applied to determine the prevalence of mental health problems related to climate change (MHPCC). A random sample consisted of 1080 participants (523 male and 557 female), residents in 18 Arab countries; their ages ranged from 25 to 60 years. The Mental Health Problems related to Climate Change Questionnaire (MHPCCQ) was completed online.<br><br>RESULTS: The results indicated average levels of MHPCC prevalence. The results also revealed no significant statistical differences in the MHPCC due to gender, educational class, and marital status except in climate anxiety; there were statistical differences in favor of married subgroup individuals. At the same time, there are statistically significant differences in the MHPCC due to the residing country variable in favor of Syria, Yemen, Algeria, Libya, and Oman regarding fears, anxiety, alienation, and somatic symptoms. In addition, Tunisia, Bahrain, Sudan, and Iraq were higher in climate depression than the other countries.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings shed light on the prevalence of MHPCC in the Arab world and oblige mental health system workers, including policymakers, mental health providers, and departments of psychology in Arab universities, to take urgent action to assess and develop the system for mental health to manage the risks of extreme climate change on the human mental health.}, }
@article {pmid36708838, year = {2023}, author = {Mayembe, R and Simpson, NP and Rumble, O and Norton, M}, title = {Integrating climate change in Environmental Impact Assessment: A review of requirements across 19 EIA regimes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {869}, number = {}, pages = {161850}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161850}, pmid = {36708838}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The contribution of human activities to climate change is well understood. Yet the integration of climate change considerations into local decision making tools designed to govern activities affecting the environment, such as Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), remains underdeveloped and inconsistently applied for proposed policies, programs, plans and projects. This study reviews progress across a range of 19 EIA regimes and identifies and assesses regulations and guidelines that have been established to promote the integration of climate change considerations within EIAs. A typology of levels of integration is developed to guide analysis across multiple EIA regimes. The findings identify a global and growing requirement for climate change aspects to be considered within EIAs and describe the range of ways this is done across the regimes selected. Climate change is typically concerned with the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from proposed developments in EIAs. Fewer regimes are concerned with climate change adaptation, and in general, an integration deficit is identified for regimes where climate change is only partially considered. Examples of high integration indicate that EIA holds the potential to play a substantive role in climate change governance at project level decision making, suggesting the tools hold promise for local level climate governance. However, many domestic obstacles can militate against integration, including political, socio-technical, and economic imperatives, particularly for exemptions of sector and scope. Nevertheless, examples also indicate advances can be made through jurisprudence during the EIA review stage to establish new precedents of how climate should be considered in EIAs. Potential future research and practice directions are identified, and recommendations include the development of regulations and practice guidelines; inclusion of climate change adaptation; strengthening post-decision monitoring; application to all relevant sectors and activities; alignment with SEA; and integration across all stages of the EIA process.}, }
@article {pmid36708471, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, J and Deng, M and Han, Y and Huang, H and Yang, T}, title = {Spatiotemporal variation of irrigation water requirements for grain crops under climate change in Northwest China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {16}, pages = {45711-45724}, pmid = {36708471}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2022-XZ-26//Strategies for improving agricultural efficient water use and ecological service function in Northwest irrigation area/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Edible Grain ; Agriculture ; China ; Water ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Clarifying the spatiotemporal variation of crop irrigation water requirement (IWR) under the background of climate change is an essential basis for water resource management, determining the irrigation quota and adjusting the planting structure. Using 61 years of climate data from 205 stations in Northwest China, this study investigated the spatiotemporal variations of climatic factors and IWR during the growth period of five main grain crops (spring wheat, winter wheat, spring maize, summer maize, and rice) and explored the dominant climatic driving factors of IWR variation. Results showed that (1) the IWR of grain crops showed distinct differences. Rice was the highest water consumption crop (mean of 753.78 mm), and summer maize was the lowest (mean of 452.90 mm). (2) The variation trends and average values of IWR of different grain crops have spatial heterogeneity across Northwest China. For most crops, high values and increasing trends of IWR were mainly located in eastern Xinjiang, western Gansu, and western Inner Mongolia. (3) Tmax (maximum temperature), Tmin (minimum temperature), and Peff (effective precipitation) showed an increasing trend during the growth period of each grain crop, while U10 (wind speed at 10 m height), SD (solar radiation), and RH (relative humidity) presented decreasing trends. (4) SD, Tmax, and U10 promoted the increase of grain crops' IWR, while Peff and RH inhibited it. The impacts of climatic factors on the grain crop IWR differed among different regions. Peff was the most influential factor to the IWR of all grain crops in most areas. Therefore, under the premise of a significant increase in T and uncertain precipitation mode in the future, it is urgent to take effective water-saving measures according to the irrigation needs of the region. To cope with the adverse impact of climate change on the sustainable development of agriculture in the northwest dry area, to ensure regional and national food security.}, }
@article {pmid36707878, year = {2023}, author = {Dembedza, VP and Chopera, P and Mapara, J and Mpofu-Hamadziripi, N and Kembo, G and Macheka, L}, title = {The relationship between climate change induced natural disasters and selected nutrition outcomes: a case of cyclone Idai, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {BMC nutrition}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {19}, pmid = {36707878}, issn = {2055-0928}, support = {AH/V006436/1//Arts and Humanities Research Council/ ; AH/V006436/1//Arts and Humanities Research Council/ ; AH/V006436/1//Arts and Humanities Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The increased frequency of climate induced natural disasters has exacerbated the risks of malnutrition in the already vulnerable regions. This study was aimed at exploring the effects of Cyclone Idai on nutrition outcomes of women of child-bearing age and children under 5 years.<br><br>METHOD: The household-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Eastern Zimbabwe. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews to determine food consumption score (FCS) and household dietary diversity (HDDS), minimum dietary diversity for women (MDD-W) and minimum dietary diversity for children (MDD-C). Severity of Cyclone Idai was grouped into five categories based on the extent of damage to infrastructure and loss of human lives. Association between continuous and categorical variables was tested using Pearson correlation test and Chi square test, respectively. Linear and binary logistic regression was performed to investigate determinants of food security.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 535 households were interviewed. There was a significant correlation between severity of Cyclone Idai and MDD-W (p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.011), HDDS (p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.018) and FCS (p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.001). However, severity of Cyclone Idai was not a determinant of any nutrition outcome, but gender of household head was a negative predictor of HDDS (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;-&#x2009;0.734, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.040), and marital status of household head was a positive predictor (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.093, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.016) of FCS.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings provide a good baseline to inform future programming of food aid activities during disasters. More so, our findings call for evidence-based policies regarding composition of a food aid basket and targeting of beneficiaries. The main strength of this study is that it is the first to investigate the effects of cyclones on food and nutrition security indicators and is based on a large sample size thus making our results generalisable.}, }
@article {pmid36707823, year = {2023}, author = {Kamel Boulos, MN and Wilson, JP}, title = {Geospatial techniques for monitoring and mitigating climate change and its effects on human health.}, journal = {International journal of health geographics}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {2}, pmid = {36707823}, issn = {1476-072X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {This article begins by briefly examining the multitude of ways in which climate and climate change affect human health and wellbeing. It then proceeds to present a quick overview of how geospatial data, methods and tools are playing key roles in the measurement, analysis and modelling of climate change and its effects on human health. Geospatial techniques are proving indispensable for making more accurate assessments and estimates, predicting future trends more reliably, and devising more optimised climate change adaptation and mitigation plans.}, }
@article {pmid36706871, year = {2023}, author = {Neumann, I and Antó, JM and Bousquet, J and Schünemann, HJ}, title = {The impact of climate change on health needs structured evidence assessment and an evidence to action framework to make decisions: a proposal to adopt the GRADE approach.}, journal = {Journal of clinical epidemiology}, volume = {157}, number = {}, pages = {146-153}, doi = {10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.01.006}, pmid = {36706871}, issn = {1878-5921}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *GRADE Approach ; Communication ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To highlight how using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach to understand the certainty in the evidence about the impact of climate change in health outcomes increases transparency. Also, how GRADE can enhance communication and decisions about adaptation and mitigation strategies.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We developed a narrative review based on an assessment of exiting systematic reviews addressing the effect of climate change on health outcomes and the impact of mitigation and adaptation strategies.<br><br>RESULTS: Adopting structured approaches such as GRADE to tackle the impact of climate change on health may help to (1) define the specific question to be addressed; (2) summarize the evidence in a structured way and assess uncertainty; (3) provide a systematic framework to move from evidence to action and to offer recommendations of different strength; (4) provide a systematic way to adapt recommendations to specific settings; and (5) provide a framework to assess the certainty of modeled evidence.<br><br>CONCLUSION: In this article, we describe epidemiologic principles that could be used to move decision-making in climate change forward.}, }
@article {pmid36705828, year = {2023}, author = {Adraoui, I and Jaafar, B}, title = {Sustainable management of water resources and assessment of the vulnerability of Moroccan oases to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {36705828}, issn = {1614-7499}, abstract = {In the oases of Morocco, climate trends show an increase in average temperatures of 2.2 °C and exacerbated precipitation by + 20% between 2020 and 2050 according to climate change scenarios. The consequences of these changes have a clear decrease in water availability and an increase in water needs. Therefore, analyzing water resource capacity and searching for adequate solutions to water scarcity in oases are essential for developing drylands. In this study, we assess the possible effects of climate change on water scarcity and the oasis ecosystem and its components. The calculated water stress index (WSI) remains very low due to a decrease in the resource impacted by the combined increase in precipitation and temperature. The obtained results indicate that for scenario 1 the WSI varies from 904 to 699 m[3]/inhab/year in 2030 and for scenario 2 the WSI varies between 583 in 2030 and 451 m[3]/inhab/year in 2050. The water availability indicator takes a value in scenario 1 of 75% for Zagora and 50% for Ouarzazate at the horizons 2030 and 2050, then increase in scenario 2 to 89% for Zagora and 78% for Ouarzazate at the horizons2030 and 2050. These results were used to develop the adaptation process, which aims to identify needs, activities, and projects in the short, medium, and long term at the horizons 2030 and 2050. In addition, it could shed light on sustainable development in this region. In addition, this study could be a reference for researchers and a decision-support document for decision-makers to place economic development within an environmental management framework.}, }
@article {pmid36704448, year = {2023}, author = {Mulyasari, G and Trisusilo, A and Windirah, N and Djarot, IN and Putra, AS}, title = {Assessing Perceptions and Adaptation Responses to Climate Change among Small-Scale Fishery on the Northern Coastal of Bengkulu, Indonesia.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {2023}, number = {}, pages = {8770267}, pmid = {36704448}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {*Fisheries ; *Climate Change ; Indonesia ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Income ; }, abstract = {Small-scale fisheries are facing significant challenges from climate change. Fishers feel the impact of climate change, which forces them to adapt. We, therefore, analyzed local climatic changes, fishers' perceptions regarding climate change and its impacts, adaptation responses, and determinants. Three decades of meteorological data were analyzed (1985-2020). A total of 300 fishermen were selected using quota sampling and interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed using the descriptive and binary logit regression models to explain the determinants of adaptation responses. The findings indicate that fishers' perceptions of climatic changes align with historical climatic data. Typologies of adaptation responses used in the study showed that time fishing adjustment was the most widely used adaptation option by fishermen. For this reason, fishermen are very active in looking for information about climate change to help them find the right time to go to sea and reduce the risk of climate change. Analysis using the binary logit regression model showed that fishing income, boat power, and climate change perceptions were the significant (p < 0.1) factors significantly influencing adaptation responses. Therefore, to strengthen the adaptation responses in small-scale fisheries, fishers' perceptions should be considered.}, }
@article {pmid36702932, year = {2023}, author = {Kaniewski, D and Marriner, N and Morhange, C and Khater, C and Terral, JF and Besnard, G and Otto, T and Luce, F and Couillebault, Q and Tsitsou, L and Pourkerman, M and Cheddadi, R}, title = {Climate change threatens olive oil production in the Levant.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {219-227}, pmid = {36702932}, issn = {2055-0278}, mesh = {Olive Oil ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; }, abstract = {The olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is one of the species best adapted to a Mediterranean-type climate[1-8]. Nonetheless, the Mediterranean Basin is deemed to be a climate change 'hotspot' by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[9,10] because future model projections suggest considerable warming and drying[11,12]. Within this context, new environmental challenges will arise in the coming decades, which will both weaken and threaten olive-growing areas, leading to a loss of productivity and changes in fruit and oil quality[13-15]. Olive growing, a core of the Mediterranean economy, might soon be under stress. To probe the link between climate and olive trees, we here report 5,400 years of olive tree dynamics from the ancient city of Tyre, Lebanon. We show that optimal fruiting scales closely with temperature. Present-day and palaeo data define an optimal annual average temperature of 16.9 ± 0.3 °C for olive flowering that has existed at least since the Neolithic period. According to our projections, during the second half of the twenty-first century, temperature increases in Lebanon will have detrimental consequences on olive tree growth and olive oil production, especially in the country's southern regions, which will become too hot for optimal flowering and fruiting. These data provide a template to understand present and future thresholds of olive production under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36702640, year = {2023}, author = {Müller, L and Schneider, A and Kühl, M and Kühl, SJ}, title = {[The Climate Change Challenge: How to get research into society through an online workshop].}, journal = {Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen}, volume = {176}, number = {}, pages = {82-89}, doi = {10.1016/j.zefq.2022.10.003}, pmid = {36702640}, issn = {2212-0289}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Germany ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Faculty, Medical ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: According to the World Health Organisation, climate change poses the greatest health threat to humanity. At the same time, an environmentally friendly lifestyle has a positive impact on our health, such as a plant-based diet. In order to counter climate change, society needs to be informed about climate-friendly and health-promoting measures. Therefore, an online workshop was initiated at the Medical Faculty of Ulm. In an accompanying study, it was determined whether this leads to changes in environmental knowledge and awareness among the participants.<br><br>METHODS: The online workshop consisted of four 2-hour sessions. Scientific basics on climate change and possible solutions were discussed. Other focuses were on health and the health system as well as environmental psychology and climate change denial. Participants could take part in an anonymous and voluntary online survey before (pretest) and after (posttest) the workshop.<br><br>RESULTS: 86 participants took part in the workshop, of whom 24 attended all appointments and completed both surveys. While hardly any changes were observed in the subsection of environmental emotion, perception and behavior, there was a significant increase in environmental knowledge in the posttest. The workshop was evaluated very positively. Furthermore, many participants were motivated to make a personal contribution to climate protection after the workshop.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The workshop serves as a good example of how medical scientific findings can be shared at a societal level. The participants already showed a high level of environmental awareness in the pretest, which is why the question remains open as to how people can be sensitized to the (health) threats posed by climate change who do not proactively sign up for such an offer themselves.}, }
@article {pmid36702286, year = {2023}, author = {Viñals, E and Maneja, R and Rufí-Salís, M and Martí, M and Puy, N}, title = {Reviewing social-ecological resilience for agroforestry systems under climate change conditions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {869}, number = {}, pages = {161763}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161763}, pmid = {36702286}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Global change is shaping social-ecological systems, threatening both natural and socio-economic ecosystems as a whole. Landscapes with combined nature-human interactions are particularly vulnerable to changing climatic conditions. Therefore, there is a need to find viable and practical solutions for the preservation and recovery of the affected systems. A relevant way to cope with disturbances is to promote social-ecological resilience through the use of strategies targeting the social-ecological system as a whole, in order to ensure an efficient self-reorganization of a landscape. This study presents a research innovation by clarifying the concept of social-ecological resilience while being focused on providing a useful tool for landscape managers. For doing so, the research first defines social-ecological resilience and aims to give a clear idea of its characteristics and application features. Second, it explains the importance of social-ecological resilience for landscapes, focusing on the relationship of humans with nature and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) for biodiversity conservation. Third, it proposes guidelines and measures for the promotion and enhancement of social-ecological resilience. The outcomes of the study show a broad perspective on the concept of social-ecological resilience to understand the necessary adaptation to global change. As findings, this research highlights the significance of nature-human interactions for agroforestry systems, citing also the potential contribution that digital innovation can play for the conservation of those interactions in a sustainable way. Moreover, it uncovers the key role of local communities in building social-ecological resilience through the application of a variety of described strategies that can have a relevant impact and be useful for landscape management practices to face upcoming challenges linked to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36701185, year = {2023}, author = {Hensher, M}, title = {Climate change, health and sustainable healthcare: The role of health economics.}, journal = {Health economics}, volume = {32}, number = {5}, pages = {985-992}, doi = {10.1002/hec.4656}, pmid = {36701185}, issn = {1099-1050}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; *Sustainable Growth ; }, abstract = {Healthcare systems around the world are responding with increasing urgency to rapidly evolving ecological crises, most notably climate change. This Perspective considers how health economics and health economists can best contribute to protecting health and building sustainable healthcare systems in the face of these challenges.}, }
@article {pmid36700347, year = {2023}, author = {McCoy, KD and Toty, C and Dupraz, M and Tornos, J and Gamble, A and Garnier, R and Descamps, S and Boulinier, T}, title = {Climate change in the Arctic: Testing the poleward expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {1729-1740}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16617}, pmid = {36700347}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {ANR-13-BSV7-0018-01//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; 333//Institut Polaire Fran&#xe7;ais Paul Emile Victor/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Ixodes/genetics/microbiology ; Genetics, Population ; *Charadriiformes ; *Lyme Disease ; *Tick-Borne Diseases ; }, abstract = {Climate change is most strongly felt in the polar regions of the world, with significant impacts on the species that live there. The arrival of parasites and pathogens from more temperate areas may become a significant problem for these populations, but current observations of parasite presence often lack a historical reference of prior absence. Observations in the high Arctic of the seabird tick Ixodes uriae suggested that this species expanded poleward in the last two decades in relation to climate change. As this tick can have a direct impact on the breeding success of its seabird hosts and vectors several pathogens, including Lyme disease spirochaetes, understanding its invasion dynamics is essential for predicting its impact on polar seabird populations. Here, we use population genetic data and host serology to test the hypothesis that I. uriae recently expanded into Svalbard. Both black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) and thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) were sampled for ticks and blood in Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen. Ticks were genotyped using microsatellite markers and population genetic analyses were performed using data from 14 reference populations from across the tick's northern distribution. In contrast to predictions, the Spitsbergen population showed high genetic diversity and significant differentiation from reference populations, suggesting long-term isolation. Host serology also demonstrated a high exposure rate to Lyme disease spirochaetes (Bbsl). Targeted PCR and sequencing confirmed the presence of Borrelia garinii in a Spitsbergen tick, demonstrating the presence of Lyme disease bacteria in the high Arctic for the first time. Taken together, results contradict the notion that I. uriae has recently expanded into the high Arctic. Rather, this tick has likely been present for some time, maintaining relatively high population sizes and an endemic transmission cycle of Bbsl. Close future observations of population infestation/infection rates will now be necessary to relate epidemiological changes to ongoing climate modifications.}, }
@article {pmid36699565, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, Y and Shen, X and Zhang, J and Wang, Y and Wu, L and Ma, R and Lu, X and Jiang, M}, title = {Spatiotemporal variation in vegetation phenology and its response to climate change in marshes of Sanjiang Plain, China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {e9755}, pmid = {36699565}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Sanjiang Plain is the largest marsh distribution area of China, and marshes in this region significantly affect regional carbon cycle and biodiversity protection. The vegetation phenology of marsh significantly affects the energy exchange and carbon cycle in that region. Under the influence of global climatic change, identifying the changes in phenology and their responses to climatic variation in marshes of Sanjiang Plain is essential for predicting the carbon stocks of marsh ecosystem in that region. Using climate and NDVI data, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in the start (SOS), end (EOS), and length (LOS) of vegetation growing season and explored the impacts of climatic variation on vegetation phenology in marshes of Sanjiang Plain. Results showed that the SOS advanced by 0.30 days/a, and EOS delayed by 0.23 days/a, causing LOS to increase significantly (p < .05) by 0.53 days/a over marshes of Sanjiang Plain. Spatially, the large SOS advance and EOS delay resulted in an obvious increasing trend for LOS in northern Sanjiang Plain. The rise of spring and winter temperatures advanced the SOS and increased the LOS, and the rise in temperature in autumn delayed the EOS in marshes of Sanjiang Plain. Our findings highlight the necessity of considering seasonal climatic conditions in simulating marsh vegetation phenology and indicate that the different influences of climatic variation on marsh vegetation phenology in different regions should be fully considered to assess the marsh ecosystem response to climatic change in Sanjiang Plain.}, }
@article {pmid36699123, year = {2023}, author = {Maier, PA and Vandergast, AG and Bohonak, AJ}, title = {Using landscape genomics to delineate future adaptive potential for climate change in the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus canorus).}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {74-97}, pmid = {36699123}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {An essential goal in conservation biology is delineating population units that maximize the probability of species persisting into the future and adapting to future environmental change. However, future-facing conservation concerns are often addressed using retrospective patterns that could be irrelevant. We recommend a novel landscape genomics framework for delineating future "Geminate Evolutionary Units" (GEUs) in a focal species: (1) identify loci under environmental selection, (2) model and map adaptive conservation units that may spawn future lineages, (3) forecast relative selection pressures on each future lineage, and (4) estimate their fitness and likelihood of persistence using geo-genomic simulations. Using this process, we delineated conservation units for the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus canorus), a U.S. federally threatened species that is highly vulnerable to climate change. We used a genome-wide dataset, redundancy analysis, and Bayesian association methods to identify 24 candidate loci responding to climatic selection (R [2] ranging from 0.09 to 0.52), after controlling for demographic structure. Candidate loci included genes such as MAP3K5, involved in cellular response to environmental change. We then forecasted future genomic response to climate change using the multivariate machine learning algorithm Gradient Forests. Based on all available evidence, we found three GEUs in Yosemite National Park, reflecting contrasting adaptive optima: YF-North (high winter snowpack with moderate summer rainfall), YF-East (low to moderate snowpack with high summer rainfall), and YF-Low-Elevation (low snowpack and rainfall). Simulations under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario suggest that the species will decline by 29% over 90 years, but the highly diverse YF-East lineage will be least impacted for two reasons: (1) geographically it will be sheltered from the largest climatic selection pressures, and (2) its standing genetic diversity will promote a faster adaptive response. Our approach provides a comprehensive strategy for protecting imperiled non-model species with genomic data alone and has wide applicability to other declining species.}, }
@article {pmid36697415, year = {2023}, author = {Ma, L and Conradie, SR and Crawford, CL and Gardner, AS and Kearney, MR and Maclean, IMD and McKechnie, AE and Mi, CR and Senior, RA and Wilcove, DS}, title = {Author Correction: Global patterns of climate change impacts on desert bird communities.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {407}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-023-36191-y}, pmid = {36697415}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid36696423, year = {2023}, author = {Azeem, MI and Alhafi Alotaibi, B}, title = {Farmers' beliefs and concerns about climate change, and their adaptation behavior to combat climate change in Saudi Arabia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {e0280838}, pmid = {36696423}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Farmers ; *Climate Change ; Saudi Arabia ; Agriculture/methods ; Motivation ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens the existence of humankind on the planet Earth. Owing to its arid climate and poor natural resources base, Saudi Arabia is particularly susceptible to the negative impact of ongoing climate change. Farmers' understanding of this global phenomenon is extremely important as it may help determine their adaptation behavior. This study was designed to analyze farmers' beliefs and concerns about climate change as well as their views about adaptation different obstacles. Data were collected from 80 randomly farmers of the Al-Ahsa region in Eastern Province using structured interviews. The findings revealed that farmers believed that climate change is mainly occurring due to anthropogenic activities. Drought, insects, crop diseases, and heat stress were their main concerns regarding adverse impacts of climate change. Lack of knowledge about adaptation practices, and poor government and financial support are perceived as the major obstacles to adaptation. The results of non-parametric analysis identified no significant differences in farmers' climate change beliefs and concerns, and their views about obstacles to adaptation in relation to their demographic characteristics. Based on the findings, we suggest that capacity building programs should be undertaken by the government for enhancing the adaptive capacity of the farmers as well the provision of financial incentives wherever deemed necessary for promoting the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices and building a resilient national food system.}, }
@article {pmid36694710, year = {2023}, author = {Skinner, MK}, title = {Environmental epigenetics and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental epigenetics}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {dvac028}, pmid = {36694710}, issn = {2058-5888}, }
@article {pmid36693827, year = {2023}, author = {Johnson, TF and Isaac, NJB and Paviolo, A and González-Suárez, M}, title = {Socioeconomic factors predict population changes of large carnivores better than climate change or habitat loss.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {74}, pmid = {36693827}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; *Carnivora ; Animals, Wild ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Land-use and climate change have been linked to changes in wildlife populations, but the role of socioeconomic factors in driving declines, and promoting population recoveries, remains relatively unexplored. Here, we evaluate potential drivers of population changes observed in 50 species of some of the world's most charismatic and functionally important fauna-large mammalian carnivores. Our results reveal that human socioeconomic development is more associated with carnivore population declines than habitat loss or climate change. Rapid increases in socioeconomic development are linked to sharp population declines, but, importantly, once development slows, carnivore populations have the potential to recover. The context- and threshold-dependent links between human development and wildlife population health are challenges to the achievement of the UN Sustainable development goals.}, }
@article {pmid36693468, year = {2023}, author = {Ansa Thasneem, S and Thampi, SG and Chithra, NR}, title = {Uncertainties in future monsoon flow predictions in the context of projected climate change: A study of the Chaliyar River Basin.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {222}, number = {}, pages = {115301}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2023.115301}, pmid = {36693468}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Rivers ; Uncertainty ; Seasons ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {A major part of the annual rainfall in most parts of India is received during the monsoon. The Chaliyar River Basin in the state of Kerala is no exception with more than 85% of the annual rainfall occurring during the monsoon season. Evidences pointing towards the influence of anthropogenic activities on climate change have been reported from all over the world in recent years. One of the major problems encountered in the projection of future climate is the accumulation of uncertainties arising from different sources. This, in turn, would result in uncertainties in the predicted future streamflows. In this work, uncertainties in the monsoon flow predictions for a future period (2070-2099), stemming from the use of different climate models, hydrological models, and representative concentration pathways are analyzed. Uncertainty due to each of these sources and their interactions are partitioned by performing three-way analysis of variance. Results of the study indicate that the major source of uncertainty in the monsoon flow predictions is uncertainty from the climate models, which is about 83.73% of the total uncertainty in future monsoon flow predictions. Hydrological models account for about 5.38% and RCPs account for about 4.3% of the total uncertainty. About 6.57% is attributed to interactions between these three factors. Evaluation of the uncertainties in future monsoon flow predictions would facilitate informed decision making while formulating strategies for water management in the future.}, }
@article {pmid36692693, year = {2023}, author = {Fathian, M and Bazrafshan, O and Jamshidi, S and Jafari, L}, title = {Impacts of climate change on water footprint components of rainfed and irrigated wheat in a semi-arid environment.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {2}, pages = {324}, pmid = {36692693}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Triticum ; *Climate Change ; Water ; Environmental Monitoring ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the biggest environmental challenges that significantly impact water resources and the quantity and quality of agricultural products. Assessment of these impacts during the historical period and under future climate is essential for achieving a sustainable agricultural system in the face of climate change threats and water scarcity. In this research, we evaluated the yield and water footprint of rainfed and irrigated wheat during the historical period (1986-2015) and two future periods (2016 to 2055) in a semi-arid environment in Fars province, Iran. The future climate data was selected from the CanESM2 model outputs (bias-corrected and downscaled using the SDSM model) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and the yield projection was made using the AquaCrop model. Our result showed that for both irrigated and rainfed wheat, the yield significantly increases in southern parts of the study area in future climates, primarily because of an increase in effective precipitation. Other regions will experience a marginal yield decrease or no yield changes (in the case of irrigated wheat). Our assessments of the water footprint of wheat production showed a significant reduction in green and blue water footprints in the southern regions. In other regions, various patterns emerged for irrigated and rainfed wheat, but an overall increase was observed. The southern regions of the study area will be more suitable for wheat production owing to the higher yield and lower water footprint.}, }
@article {pmid36691655, year = {2023}, author = {Yu, P and Xu, R and Yang, Z and Ye, T and Liu, Y and Li, S and Abramson, MJ and Kimlin, M and Guo, Y}, title = {Cancer and Ongoing Climate Change: Who Are the Most Affected?.}, journal = {ACS environmental Au}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {5-11}, pmid = {36691655}, issn = {2694-2518}, abstract = {Cancer has become the leading cause of premature death in many counties in recent decades. Previous studies showed plenty of evidence that control of modifiable risk factors would reduce the cancer burden. Since modifiable risk factors could be eliminated by changing the lifestyles of individuals, a greater uptake of modifiable risk factors is critical to reducing cancer burden and inequality in cancer survival. However, climate change will widen cancer inequities through its complex connections with modifiable risk factors. In this perspective, complex connections between climate change and cancer risks via modifiable risk factors, including abnormal temperature, UV, air pollution, natural disasters, food (diet), water, infections, and inefficient physical activities, have been summarized. The associations between climate change and modifiable risk factors have no doubt expanded the inequities. People who face overlapping modifiable risk factors, but who are unable to change or adapt, are at the highest risk in the climate change-cancer linkage. Though individual actions to avoid exposure to modifiable risk factors have been recommended, limited benefits would be achieved unless the nations strive to ensure the basic needs of the people. No choice makes avoiding exposure to risk factors an empty phrase. Thus, government actions should be taken to reduce the expanded inequities in cancer risks.}, }
@article {pmid36691567, year = {2023}, author = {Filho, WL and Minhas, A and Schmook, B and Mardero, S and Sharifi, A and Paz, S and Kovaleva, M and Albertini, MC and Skouloudis, A}, title = {Sustainable development goal 13 and switching priorities: addressing climate change in the context of pandemic recovery efforts.}, journal = {Environmental sciences Europe}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {6}, pmid = {36691567}, issn = {2190-4707}, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic has had many deep social and economic impacts that go beyond health issues. One consequence is that the pandemic has made it even harder to mobilize the financial resources needed to pursue SDG 13 (Climate Action) as a whole and to fund climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts in particular. This is especially acute in respect of the efforts to achieve the targets set by the Paris Agreement and by the recent decisions in Glasgow. This paper looks at how the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated poverty and undermined climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, as a result of the switches in priorities and funding. Using a review of the recent literature, an analysis of international trends, and a survey among climate scientists, it identifies some of the impacts of the pandemic on climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts and discusses their implications. The findings indicate a decrease in funding to climate change research since the pandemic crisis. The bibliometric analysis reveals that a greater emphasis has been placed on the relationship between COVID-19 and poverty when compared to the interrelations between COVID-19 and climate change. Addressing climate change is as urgent now as it was before the pandemic crisis started, and efforts need to be made to upkeep the levels of funding needed to support research in this field.}, }
@article {pmid36690643, year = {2023}, author = {Nimbs, MJ and Wernberg, T and Davis, TR and Champion, C and Coleman, MA}, title = {Climate change threatens unique evolutionary diversity in Australian kelp refugia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1248}, pmid = {36690643}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Kelp/genetics ; Climate Change ; Australia ; Refugium ; Water ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change has driven contemporary decline and loss of kelp forests globally with an accompanying loss of their ecological and economic values. Kelp populations at equatorward-range edges are particularly vulnerable to climate change as these locations are undergoing warming at or beyond thermal tolerance thresholds. Concerningly, these range-edge populations may contain unique adaptive or evolutionary genetic diversity that is vulnerable to warming. We explore haplotype diversity by generating a Templeton-Crandall-Sing (TCS) network analysis of 119 Cytochrome C Oxidase (COI) sequences among four major population groupings for extant and putatively extinct populations only known from herbarium specimens of the dominant Laminarian kelp Ecklonia radiata in the south-western Pacific, a region warming at 2-4 times the global average. Six haplotypes occurred across the region with one being widespread across most populations. Three unique haplotypes were found in a deep-water range-edge population off Moreton Island, Queensland, which likely represents both a contemporary and historic refuge during periods of climatic change. Hindcasting E. radiata cover estimates using extant data, we reveal that this region likely supported the highest kelp cover in eastern Australia during the last glacial maximum. The equatorward range edge, deep-water kelp populations off Moreton Island represent a genetically diverse evolutionary refuge that is currently threatened by warming and requires prompt ex-situ conservation measures.}, }
@article {pmid36688970, year = {2023}, author = {Stelzner, S and Keller, G and Gockel, I and Herrmann, M}, title = {[Climate change and (surgical) health in context].}, journal = {Chirurgie (Heidelberg, Germany)}, volume = {94}, number = {3}, pages = {191-198}, pmid = {36688970}, issn = {2731-698X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Weather ; Floods ; Droughts ; *Greenhouse Gases ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impacts of the climate crisis will result in a health crisis in addition to loss of habitats and increasing supply uncertainty. In this context, the health sector and especially surgery are relevant emitters of greenhouse gases, thus contributing to the magnitude of the climate crisis. Many reviews regarding the impacts on human health are available; however, a view from the surgical perspective has so far been underrepresented.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: This narrative review summarizes the relevance of climate-related changes for the surgical disciplines based on a&#xa0;literature search.<br><br>RESULTS: Immediate impacts are expected by the increasing number of extreme weather events, e.g., floods, droughts and wildfires. In these settings, surgery is a&#xa0;part of the disaster medicine chain but simultaneously the functionality of surgical departments can be impaired or even break down when they are themselves affected by extreme weather events. Heat waves cause an increase in surgical site infections, which may lead to postponement of elective surgery for patients at high risk. Collateral impacts are mirrored by an increase in the incidence of lung and skin cancers, which often need surgical treatment within a&#xa0;multidisciplinary setting. Additionally, there are indirect impacts that are of a very different nature, e.g., inadequate diet which leads to further deterioration of the greenhouse gas footprint of the health sector due to the necessity of bariatric surgical capacities.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The climate crisis represents a&#xa0;major challenge in surgery and all other medical disciplines. At the same time is it indispensable that the health sector and therefore surgery, take steps towards a&#xa0;zero emission pathway.}, }
@article {pmid36686050, year = {2022}, author = {Chattu, VK}, title = {"Digital global health diplomacy" for climate change and human security in the Anthropocene.}, journal = {Health promotion perspectives}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {277-281}, pmid = {36686050}, issn = {2228-6497}, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic has now affected everyone, threatening every aspect of our well-being with over 617597680 confirmed cases, including 6532705 deaths globally. The context of the Anthropocene is the backdrop for the novel, interlinked, systemic, and global threats. Anthropocene is a term proposed to designate the era in which human beings have become predominant drivers of planetary change, drastically altering the planet's biosphere. The concept of global health diplomacy (GHD), which connects the domains of health and international relations, has a critical role in advancing human security. Thus, there is a need for new forms of diplomacy, which is critically important in this complex intermestic and interdependent Anthropocene era, where globalization has inevitably linked nations and population health. This paper introduces, analyzes, and attempts to define "Digital Global Health Diplomacy" (DGHD), which has gained great momentum during this COVID-19 pandemic with concurrent health and human security threats. The application of digital formats to the existing traditional structures for dialogue has become a more popular tool recently. Furthermore, digital means are being used during the COVID-19 pandemic to share the health diplomacy discourse at subnational, supranational, international, regional, and global platforms. DGHD reminds us again of the criticality of this multidisciplinary concept involving the contributions of diplomats, global health specialists, digital technology experts, economists, trade specialists, international law, political scientists, etc., in the global policymaking process. If used effectively by trained global health diplomats through innovative digital platforms, DGHD has a great scope of delivering results faster and has more reach than the traditional approach.}, }
@article {pmid36685945, year = {2022}, author = {Mogilicherla, K and Roy, A}, title = {Epigenetic regulations as drivers of insecticide resistance and resilience to climate change in arthropod pests.}, journal = {Frontiers in genetics}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1044980}, pmid = {36685945}, issn = {1664-8021}, abstract = {Arthropod pests are remarkably capable of rapidly adapting to novel forms of environmental stress, including insecticides and climate change. The dynamic interplay between epigenetics and genetics explains the largely unexplored reality underlying rapid climatic adaptation and the development of insecticide resistance in insects. Epigenetic regulation modulates gene expression by methylating DNA and acetylating histones that play an essential role in governing insecticide resistance and adaptation to climate change. This review summarises and discusses the significance of recent advances in epigenetic regulation that facilitate phenotypic plasticity in insects and their symbiotic microbes to cope with selection pressure implied by extensive insecticide applications and climate change. We also discuss how epigenetic changes are passed on to multiple generations through sexual recombination, which remains enigmatic. Finally, we explain how these epigenetic signatures can be utilized to manage insecticide resistance and pest resilience to climate change in Anthropocene.}, }
@article {pmid36685930, year = {2022}, author = {Meng, G and Rasmussen, SK and Christensen, CSL and Fan, W and Torp, AM}, title = {Molecular breeding of barley for quality traits and resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in genetics}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1039996}, pmid = {36685930}, issn = {1664-8021}, abstract = {Barley grains are a rich source of compounds, such as resistant starch, beta-glucans and anthocyanins, that can be explored in order to develop various products to support human health, while lignocellulose in straw can be optimised for feed in husbandry, bioconversion into bioethanol or as a starting material for new compounds. Existing natural variations of these compounds can be used to breed improved cultivars or integrated with a large number of mutant lines. The technical demands can be in opposition depending on barley's end use as feed or food or as a source of biofuel. For example beta-glucans are beneficial in human diets but can lead to issues in brewing and poultry feed. Barley breeders have taken action to integrate new technologies, such as induced mutations, transgenics, marker-assisted selection, genomic selection, site-directed mutagenesis and lastly machine learning, in order to improve quality traits. Although only a limited number of cultivars with new quality traits have so far reached the market, research has provided valuable knowledge and inspiration for future design and a combination of methodologies to achieve the desired traits. The changes in climate is expected to affect the quality of the harvested grain and it is already a challenge to mitigate the unpredictable seasonal and annual variations in temperature and precipitation under elevated [CO2] by breeding. This paper presents the mutants and encoded proteins, with a particular focus on anthocyanins and lignocellulose, that have been identified and characterised in detail and can provide inspiration for continued breeding to achieve desired grain and straw qualities.}, }
@article {pmid36685809, year = {2023}, author = {Shiiba, N and Singh, P and Charan, D and Raj, K and Stuart, J and Pratap, A and Maekawa, M}, title = {Climate change and coastal resiliency of Suva, Fiji: a holistic approach for measuring climate risk using the climate and ocean risk vulnerability index (CORVI).}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {9}, pmid = {36685809}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Coastal cities are under severe threat from the impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise, extreme weather events, coastal inundation, and ecosystem degradation. It is well known that the ocean, and in particular coastal environments, have been changing at an unprecedented rate, which poses increasing risks to people in small island developing states, such as Fiji. The Greater Suva Urban Area, the capital and largest metropolitan area of Fiji, is expected to be largely impacted by climate-related risks to its socio-economic, cultural, and political positions. In the face of these threats, creating a resilient city that can withstand and adapt to the impacts of climate change and promote sustainable development should be guided by a holistic approach, encompassing stakeholders from the government, the private sector, civil society organizations, and international institutions. This study assesses the risk profile of Suva city using an innovative risk information tool, the climate and ocean risk vulnerability index (CORVI), which applies structured expert judgment to quantify climate-related risks in data-sparse environments. Through comparative quantification of diverse risk factors and narrative analysis, this study identifies three priority areas for Suva's future climate-resilient actions: development of climate risk-informed urban planning, harmonized urban development and natural restoration, and enhancing the climate resilience to the tourism sector.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10043-4.}, }
@article {pmid36685463, year = {2023}, author = {Tofu, DA and Wolka, K}, title = {Climate change induced a progressive shift of livelihood from cereal towards Khat (Chata edulis) production in eastern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e12790}, pmid = {36685463}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Global climate change affects smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa. To cope with the changing situation, farmers employ adaptation strategies such as adjusting their livelihoods. The objective of this research was to evaluate the effects of climate change on the gradual transition in livelihood from cereal production to Khat plantation in west Harareghe, Ethiopia. Data was gathered through interviews with 273 households, 8, focus groups, and 12 key informants. Descriptive statistics and an econometric model were used to analyze quantitative data, whereas content analysis with step preprocesses was utilized to analyze and report qualitative data. . The farm households responded that climatic extremes are posing severe impacts on soil fertility (80%), crop production (93%), livestock production (91%), water scarcity (92%), and adaptive capacity of the farmers (81%). As a result, about 86% of the farmers' have been putting more emphasis and progressively shifting their livelihood from cereal to Khat (Chata edulis) crop plantation. Asides from the shrinking livelihood due to climatic shocks, high market access with better price and profitability, drought and water scarcity tolerance, ability to grow in degraded land, suitability for intercropping and three to five times harvest in a year are mentioned as the blessings attracted farmers' to shift to Khat production. To reduce susceptibility to climate change impacts, approximately 81%, 78%, and 77% of framers, respectively, used managerial (e.g., intercropping and petty trade), technological (e.g., terracing and improved crop variety), and policy-driven (i.e., productive safety net program) strategies. In addition to this, agro-ecology, yield reduction, wealth, perceived on set of rain, soil infertility, access to markets and credit, institutional participation, land size, dependency ratio, irrigation, and access to early warning systems were found to significantly influence the adoption decision of farmers in the study area. Therefore, policy makers and planners are advised to design techniques to manage climate-induced extreme episodes and produce area specific strategies capable to increase the productivity of cereal crop and livestock.}, }
@article {pmid36684875, year = {2022}, author = {Li, H and Liang, Y and Dong, L and Li, C and Zhang, L and Wang, B and Ma, D and Mu, Q and Wang, J and Hou, H and Liu, Q}, title = {Predicting global potential distribution of Peromyscopsylla hesperomys and Orchopeas sexdentatus and risk assessment for invading China under climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1018327}, pmid = {36684875}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Animals ; *Plague/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Siphonaptera ; China/epidemiology ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Peromyscopsylla hesperomys and Orchopeas sexdentatus are regarded to be representative plague vectors in the United States. The incidence of plague is rising globally, possibly due to climate change and environmental damage. Environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation have a significant impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of plague vectors.<br><br>METHODS: Maximum entropy models (MaxEnt) were utilized to predict the distributions of these two fleas and their trends into the future. The main environmental factors influencing the distribution of these two fleas were analyzed. A risk assessment system was constructed to calculate the invasion risk values of the species.<br><br>RESULTS: Temperature has a significant effect on the distribution of the potentially suitable areas for P. hesperomys and O. sexdentatus. They have the potential to survive in suitable areas of China in the future. The risk assessment system indicated that the risk level for the invasion of these two species into China was moderate.<br><br>CONCLUSION: In order to achieve early detection, early interception, and early management, China should perfect its monitoring infrastructure and develop scientific prevention and control strategies to prevent the invasion of foreign flea vectors.}, }
@article {pmid36681338, year = {2023}, author = {Samsuddin Sah, S and Abdul Maulud, KN and A Karim, O and Sharil, S and Yaseen, ZM}, title = {Extensive assessment of climate change impacts on coastal zone paddy growth using multispectral analysis and hydrodynamic modeling.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {868}, number = {}, pages = {161585}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161585}, pmid = {36681338}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global warming has led to sea levels raise (SLRs) and Malaysia is no exception to this problem. Especially for low-lying coastal areas including the Kuala Kedah area which is active in agricultural and fisheries activities. Farmers have had to bear up to 75 % of yield losses due to seawater breaches since 2016. Therefore, this study is designed to assess the impact of seawater encroachment on water quality through spatial technology approaches and hydrodynamic modeling related to the growth of paddy trees. The study was conducted during two different paddy cultivation seasons namely Season 1-2019 and Season 2-2019 which take place in the southwest and northeast monsoon in Kuala Kedah, Malaysia. The study involved three phases, which are the assessment of salinity and pH concentration levels, the assessment of the health of paddy crops through multispectral image analysis involving three plant indices (VI), namely Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Blue Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (BNDVI) and Normalized Difference Red Edge (NDRE), and finally, the assessment of the impact of SLR through the numerical method in MIKE 21 for hydrodynamic modeling considering two conditions that are without mitigation factor (K1) and with existing mitigating factor (K2). According to the findings, the salinity concentration trend is decreasing across the growth stage during Season 1-2019, whereas it is the contrary during Season 2-2019. It was discovered that during the study period for both tidal events, 73 % of the 44 sampling points in Season 1-2019, as opposed to just 3 % in Season 2-2019, were categorized as Class 4 and Class 5. Even though there were fluctuations throughout the observation, the pH reading is still within the allowed range of 6.5 to 9.0 for the estuary area. Following that, the ANOVA analysis proved that salinity concentration a statistically significant difference with tidal variations and pH levels. Moreover, the multispectral image analysis findings revealed that the VI value was correlated with both the yield and the health of the rice crop, with R-square values of 0.842 compared to 0.706 and 0.575 for NDVI and BNDVI values, respectively. It confirmed that NDRE granted a more accurate and reliable measurements. Additionally, the hydrodynamic simulation results demonstrated that, if the mitigation factors were considered in the modeling, overflow seawater to the mainland could be reduced by up to 20 %, reducing the impact of coastal flooding on the local area as well as the nearby rice cultivation area. Ultimately, these three elements-water quality, vegetation index, and hydrodynamic modeling-can assist in identifying the underlying cause of the problem and develop short and long-term solutions.}, }
@article {pmid36680915, year = {2023}, author = {Ward, N and Nichols, M and Moodie, M and Brown, V}, title = {Is climate change action present in obesity prevention policy?.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {47}, number = {1}, pages = {100015}, doi = {10.1016/j.anzjph.2022.100015}, pmid = {36680915}, issn = {1753-6405}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; Obesity/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid36679046, year = {2023}, author = {Pollastri, S and Velikova, V and Castaldini, M and Fineschi, S and Ghirardo, A and Renaut, J and Schnitzler, JP and Sergeant, K and Winkler, JB and Zorzan, S and Loreto, F}, title = {Isoprene-Emitting Tobacco Plants Are Less Affected by Moderate Water Deficit under Future Climate Change Scenario and Show Adjustments of Stress-Related Proteins in Actual Climate.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {36679046}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {Eurovol//European Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Isoprene-emitting plants are better protected against thermal and oxidative stresses, which is a desirable trait in a climate-changing (drier and warmer) world. Here we compared the ecophysiological performances of transgenic isoprene-emitting and wild-type non-emitting tobacco plants during water stress and after re-watering in actual environmental conditions (400 ppm of CO2 and 28 °C of average daily temperature) and in a future climate scenario (600 ppm of CO2 and 32 °C of average daily temperature). Furthermore, we intended to complement the present knowledge on the mechanisms involved in isoprene-induced resistance to water deficit stress by examining the proteome of transgenic isoprene-emitting and wild-type non-emitting tobacco plants during water stress and after re-watering in actual climate. Isoprene emitters maintained higher photosynthesis and electron transport rates under moderate stress in future climate conditions. However, physiological resistance to water stress in the isoprene-emitting plants was not as marked as expected in actual climate conditions, perhaps because the stress developed rapidly. In actual climate, isoprene emission capacity affected the tobacco proteomic profile, in particular by upregulating proteins associated with stress protection. Our results strengthen the hypothesis that isoprene biosynthesis is related to metabolic changes at the gene and protein levels involved in the activation of general stress defensive mechanisms of plants.}, }
@article {pmid36678935, year = {2023}, author = {Grigore, MN and Vicente, O}, title = {Wild Halophytes: Tools for Understanding Salt Tolerance Mechanisms of Plants and for Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {36678935}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Halophytes, wild plants adapted to highly saline natural environments, represent extremely useful-and, at present, underutilised-experimental systems with which to investigate the mechanisms of salt tolerance in plants at the anatomical, physiological, biochemical and molecular levels. They can also provide biotechnological tools for the genetic improvement of salt tolerance in our conventional crops, such as salt tolerance genes or salt-induced promoters. Furthermore, halophytes may constitute the basis of sustainable 'saline agriculture' through commercial cultivation after some breeding to improve agronomic traits. All these issues are relevant in the present context of climate emergency, as soil salinity is-together with drought-the most critical environmental factor in reducing crop yield worldwide. In fact, climate change represents the most serious challenge for agricultural production and food security in the near future. Several of the topics mentioned above-mainly referring to basic studies on salt tolerance mechanisms-are addressed in the articles published within this Special Issue.}, }
@article {pmid36678287, year = {2023}, author = {Agostoni, C and Baglioni, M and La Vecchia, A and Molari, G and Berti, C}, title = {Interlinkages between Climate Change and Food Systems: The Impact on Child Malnutrition-Narrative Review.}, journal = {Nutrients}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {36678287}, issn = {2072-6643}, support = {Ricerca corrente//Italian Ministry of Health/ ; }, mesh = {Infant ; Child ; Humans ; *Malnutrition/etiology ; *Child Nutrition Disorders/etiology/complications ; Climate Change ; Pandemics ; *COVID-19/epidemiology/complications ; Nutritional Status ; Obesity/complications ; Food Supply ; }, abstract = {The pandemics of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change represent severe threats to child health. They co-occur; interact with each other to produce sequelae at biological, psychological, or social levels; and share common underlying drivers. In this paper, we review the key issues concerning child diet and nutritional status, focusing on the interactions with climate and food systems. Inadequate infant and young child feeding practices, food insecurity, poverty, and limited access to health services are the leading causes of malnutrition across generations. Food system industrialization and globalization lead to a double burden of malnutrition, whereby undernutrition (i.e., stunting, wasting, and deficiencies in micronutrients) coexists with overweight and obesity, as well as to harmful effects on climate. Climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic are worsening child malnutrition, impacting the main underlying causes (i.e., household food security, dietary diversity, nutrient quality, and access to maternal and child health), as well as the social, economic, and political factors determining food security and nutrition (livelihoods, income, infrastructure resources, and political context). Existing interventions have the potential to be further scaled-up to concurrently address undernutrition, overnutrition, and climate change by cross-cutting education, agriculture, food systems, and social safety nets. Several stakeholders must work co-operatively to improve global sustainable nutrition.}, }
@article {pmid36674273, year = {2023}, author = {Sattler, DN and Graham, JM and Whippy, A and Atienza, R and Johnson, J}, title = {Developing a Climate Change Risk Perception Model in the Philippines and Fiji: Posttraumatic Growth Plays Central Role.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {36674273}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Posttraumatic Growth, Psychological ; Philippines/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Fiji/epidemiology ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Perception ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This two-study paper developed a climate change risk perception model that considers the role of posttraumatic growth (i.e., a reappraisal of life priorities and deeper appreciation of life), resource loss, posttraumatic stress, coping, and social support.<br><br>METHOD: In Study 1, participants were 332 persons in the Philippines who experienced Super Typhoon Haiyan. In Study 2, participants were 709 persons in Fiji who experienced Cyclone Winston. Climate change can increase the size and destructive potential of cyclones and typhoons as a result of warming ocean temperatures, which provides fuel for these storms. Participants completed measures assessing resource loss, posttraumatic stress, coping, social support, posttraumatic growth, and climate change risk perception.<br><br>RESULTS: Structural equation modeling was used to develop a climate change risk perception model with data collected in the Philippines and to confirm the model with data collected in Fiji. The model showed that climate change risk perception was influenced by resource loss, posttraumatic stress, coping activation, and posttraumatic growth. The model developed in the Philippines was confirmed with data collected in Fiji.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Posttraumatic growth played a central role in climate change risk perception. Public health educational efforts should focus on vividly showing how climate change threatens life priorities and that which gives life meaning and can result in loss, stress, and hardship. Disaster response organizations may also use this approach to promote preparedness for disaster threats.}, }
@article {pmid36674220, year = {2023}, author = {van Baal, K and Stiel, S and Schulte, P}, title = {Public Perceptions of Climate Change and Health-A Cross-Sectional Survey Study.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {36674220}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Male ; *Public Opinion ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Climate Change ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Communication ; }, abstract = {Climate change is inseparably linked to human health. Although there is growing awareness of the threats to human health caused by climate change, it remains unclear how the German population perceives the relevance of climate change and its health consequences. Between May and September 2022, German residents were invited to participate in a cross-sectional online survey that explored three content areas: (1) the relevance of climate change, (2) health risks in connection with climate change and (3) collective and individual options for action against climate change. A total of 697 full data sets were collected for analysis (72% female, 51% ≥55 years old). The majority of participants agreed that human-induced climate change exists (85%), and that it has an impact on human health (83%). They also perceived the global population to be more strongly impacted by climate change than themselves (89% versus 68%). Most participants (76%) claimed to personally contribute to climate protection and 23% felt that their city or council contributed to climate protection. Although the majority of participants saw climate change as a threat to human health, they perceived other population groups to be most strongly affected. Cognitive dissonance might explain this lack of individual concern and one approach to addressing such distorted perceptions might be the dissemination of appropriate risk communication with health professionals involved in the communication.}, }
@article {pmid36673946, year = {2023}, author = {Corvetto, JF and Helou, AY and Dambach, P and Müller, T and Sauerborn, R}, title = {A Systematic Literature Review of the Impact of Climate Change on the Global Demand for Psychiatric Services.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {36673946}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Mental Health Services ; *Suicide ; *Schizophrenia ; Hospitalization ; }, abstract = {Climate Change (CC) imposes important global health risks, including on mental health (MH). They are related mostly to psychological suffering caused by climate-related events and to the heat-vulnerability caused by psychiatric disorders. This growing burden may press MH services worldwide, increasing demand on public and private systems in low-, middle-, and high-income countries. According to PRISMA, two independent reviewers searched four databases for papers published before May 2022 that associated climate-related events with healthcare demand for psychiatric conditions. Of the 7432 papers retrieved, we included 105. Only 29 were carried out in low- and middle-income countries. Twelve related the admission numbers to (i) extreme events, while 93 to (ii) meteorological factors-mostly heat. Emergency visits and hospitalizations were significantly higher during hot periods for MH disorders, especially until lag 5-7. Extreme events also caused more consultations. Suicide (completed or attempted), substance misuse, schizophrenia, mood, organic and neurotic disorders, and mortality were strongly affected by CC. This high healthcare demand is evidence of the burden patients may undergo. In addition, public and private services may face a shortage of financial and human resources. Finally, the increased use of healthcare facilities, in turn, intensifies greenhouse gas emissions, representing a self-enforcing cycle for CC. Further research is needed to better clarify how extreme events affect MH services and, in addition, if services in low- and middle-income countries are more intensely demanded by CC, as compared to richer countries.}, }
@article {pmid36673505, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, F and Zhan, C and Zou, L}, title = {Risk of Crop Yield Reduction in China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming from CMIP6 Models.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {36673505}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {XDA23040304//Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 2021M703178//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Warmer temperatures significantly influence crop yields, which are a critical determinant of food supply and human well-being. In this study, a probabilistic approach based on bivariate copula models was used to investigate the dependence (described by joint distribution) between crop yield and growing season temperature (TGS) in the major producing provinces of China for three staple crops (i.e., rice, wheat, and maize). Based on the outputs of 12 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5, the probability of yield reduction under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming was estimated, which has great implications for agricultural risk management. Results showed that yield response to TGS varied with crop and region, with the most vulnerable being rice in Sichuan, wheat in Sichuan and Gansu, and maize in Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin, Nei Mongol, Shanxi, and Hebei. Among the selected five copulas, Archimedean/elliptical copulas were more suitable to describe the joint distribution between TGS and yield in most rice-/maize-producing provinces. The probability of yield reduction was greater in vulnerable provinces than in non-vulnerable provinces, with maize facing a higher risk of warming-driven yield loss than rice and wheat. Compared to the 1.5 °C global warming, an additional 0.5 °C warming would increase the yield loss risk in vulnerable provinces by 2-17%, 1-16%, and 3-17% for rice, wheat, and maize, respectively. The copula-based model proved to be an effective tool to provide probabilistic estimates of yield reduction due to warming and can be applied to other crops and regions. The results of this study demonstrated the importance of keeping global warming within 1.5 °C to mitigate the yield loss risk and optimize agricultural decision-making in vulnerable regions.}, }
@article {pmid36673211, year = {2022}, author = {Swedan, NH}, title = {Thermodynamic Analysis of Climate Change.}, journal = {Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36673211}, issn = {1099-4300}, abstract = {The climate change assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change is based on a radiative forcing methodology, and thermodynamic analysis of the climate does not appear to be utilized. Although equivalent to the radiative model, the thermodynamic model captures details of thermodynamic interactions among the earth's subsystems. Carbon dioxide emission returns the net chemical energy exchanged with the climate system to the surface of the earth as heat. The heat is equal to the sum of the heat produced by fossil fuels and deforestation minus the heat of surface greening. Accordingly, trends of climate parameters are calculated. Nearly 51.40% of carbon dioxide production has been sequestered by green matter, and surface greening is approximately 3.0% per decade. Through 2020, the heat removed by surface greening has approached 12.84% of the total heat. Deforestation on the other hand has contributed nearly 22.85% of the total heat of carbon conversion to carbon dioxide. The increase in sea and average land surface air temperatures are 0.80 °C and 1.39 °C, respectively. Present annual sea level rise is nearly 3.35 mm, and the calculated reductions in the temperature and geopotential height of the lower stratosphere are about -0.66 °C and -67.24 m per decade, respectively. Unlike natural sequestration of carbon dioxide, artificial sequestration is not a photosynthetic heat sink process and does not appear to be a viable methodology for mitigating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36671811, year = {2023}, author = {Dvoretsky, VG and Vodopianova, VV and Bulavina, AS}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Chlorophyll a in the Barents Sea: A Long-Term Assessment.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36671811}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {//Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation/ ; }, abstract = {The Arctic climate strongly affects phytoplankton production and biomass through several mechanisms, including warming, sea ice retreat, and global atmospheric processes. In order to detect the climatic changes in phytoplankton biomass, long-term variability of chlorophyll a (Chl-a) was estimated in situ with the changes in the surface sea temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters during the period of 1984-2021. Spatial differences were detected in SST, SSS, and Chl-a. Chl-a increased parallel to SST in the summer-autumn and spring periods, respectively. Chl-a peaks were found near the ice edge and frontal zones in the spring season, while the highest measures were observed in the coastal regions during the summer seasons. SST and Chl-a demonstrated increasing trends with greater values during 2010-2020. Generalized additive models (GAMs) revealed that SST and Chl-a were positively related with year. Climatic and oceanographic variables explained significant proportions of the Chl-a fluctuations, with six predictors (SST, annual North Atlantic Oscillation index, temperature/salinity anomalies at the Kola Section, and sea ice extent in April and September) being the most important. GAMs showed close associations between increasing Chl-a and a decline in sea ice extent and rising water temperature. Our data may be useful for monitoring the Arctic regions during the era of global changes and provide a basis for future research on factors driving phytoplankton assemblages and primary productivity in the Barents Sea.}, }
@article {pmid36671803, year = {2023}, author = {Daly, EZ and Gerlich, HS and Frenot, Y and Høye, TT and Holmstrup, M and Renault, D}, title = {Climate Change Helps Polar Invasives Establish and Flourish: Evidence from Long-Term Monitoring of the Blowfly Calliphora vicina.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36671803}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {ANR-20-EBI5-0004, BiodivERsA, BiodivClim call 2019-2020//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; 136-SUBANTECO//French Polar Institute/ ; Zone Atelier CNRS Antarctique et Terres Australes//French National Centre for Scientific Research/ ; Appel &#xe0; projets Actions incitatives 2022 'Collaborations internationales non formalis&#xe9;es'//University of Rennes 1/ ; }, abstract = {The isolated sub-Antarctic islands are of major ecological interest because of their unique species diversity and long history of limited human disturbance. However, since the presence of Europeans, these islands and their sensitive biota have been under increasing pressure due to human activity and associated biological invasions. In such delicate ecosystems, biological invasions are an exceptional threat that may be further amplified by climate change. We examined the invasion trajectory of the blowfly Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy 1830). First introduced in the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands in the 1970s, it is thought to have persisted only in sheltered microclimates for several decades. Here, we show that, in recent decades, C. vicina has been able to establish itself more widely. We combine experimental thermal developmental data with long-term ecological and meteorological monitoring to address whether warming conditions help explain its current success and dynamics in the eastern Kerguelen Islands. We found that warming temperatures and accumulated degree days could explain the species' phenological and long-term invasion dynamics, indicating that climate change has likely assisted its establishment. This study represents a unique long-term view of a polar invader and stresses the rapidly increasing susceptibility of cold regions to invasion under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36671776, year = {2023}, author = {Adhikari, P and Lee, YH and Poudel, A and Lee, G and Hong, SH and Park, YS}, title = {Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of Parthenium hysterophorus around the World and in South Korea.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36671776}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2021002270004//Ministry of Environment/ ; }, abstract = {The global climate change, including increases in temperature and precipitation, may exacerbate the invasion by P. hysterophorus. Here, MaxEnt modeling was performed to predict P. hysterophorus distribution worldwide and in South Korea under the current and future climate global climate changes, including increases in temperature and precipitation. Under the current climate, P. hysterophorus was estimated to occupy 91.26%, 83.26%, and 62.75% of the total land area of Australia, South America, and Oceania, respectively. However, under future climate scenarios, the habitat distribution of P. hysterophorus would show the greatest change in Europe (56.65%) and would extend up to 65°N by 2081-2100 in South Korea, P. hysterophorus currently potentially colonizing 2.24% of the land area, particularly in six administrative divisions. In the future, P. hysterophorus would spread rapidly, colonizing all administrative divisions, except Incheon, by 2081-2100. Additionally, the southern and central regions of South Korea showed greater habitat suitability than the northern region. These findings suggest that future climate change will increase P. hysterophorus distribution both globally and locally. Therefore, effective control and management strategies should be employed around the world and in South Korea to restrict the habitat expansion of P. hysterophorus.}, }
@article {pmid36670273, year = {2023}, author = {Sapkota, A and Kotanko, P}, title = {Climate change-fuelled natural disasters and chronic kidney disease: a call for action.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Nephrology}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {141-142}, pmid = {36670273}, issn = {1759-507X}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Natural Disasters ; *Renal Insufficiency, Chronic ; }, }
@article {pmid36670135, year = {2023}, author = {Richardson, LM and Thaker, J and Holmes, DC}, title = {Comparative analysis of Australian climate change and COVID-19 vaccine audience segments shows climate skeptics can be vaccine enthusiasts.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1118}, pmid = {36670135}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Humans ; *COVID-19 Vaccines ; Climate Change ; Australia ; *COVID-19/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Communication ; }, abstract = {Denialism and the spreading of misinformation have occurred regarding both climate change and COVID-19, delaying uptake of urgent actions. Audience segmentation analysis identifies audience subgroups likely to have similar responses to messaging, and is a valuable tool for effective campaigns encouraging critical behaviors in both contexts. This study compared audience segmentations based on a representative sample of 1054 Australians. One segmentation was based on the 'Global Warming's Six Americas' online SASSY tool. The second segmentation applied the Theory of Planned Behavior and found five distinct COVID-19 vaccine segments. Both studies showed those most concerned and those most skeptical in the climate change segmentation tended to be in more enthusiastic COVID-19 vaccine segments, while those in the center on climate change were more skeptical on COVID-19 vaccines. Differences identified relating to age, gender, and political views may be explained by a combination of the specific nature and histories of these issues. These findings have implications for effective communication on science and health issues across diverse disciplines.}, }
@article {pmid36670117, year = {2023}, author = {Ballarin, AS and Sone, JS and Gesualdo, GC and Schwamback, D and Reis, A and Almagro, A and Wendland, EC}, title = {CLIMBra - Climate Change Dataset for Brazil.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {47}, pmid = {36670117}, issn = {2052-4463}, support = {2020/08140-0//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo (S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation)/ ; 2022/06017-1//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo (S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation)/ ; 2015/03806-1//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo (S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation)/ ; 2015/03806-1//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo (S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation)/ ; 2019/24292-7//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo (S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation)/ ; 2021/14016-2//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo (S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation)/ ; 2015/03806-1//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo (S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation)/ ; Finance Code 001//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior (Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education)/ ; }, abstract = {General Circulation and Earth System Models are the most advanced tools for investigating climate responses to future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, playing the role of projecting the climate throughout the century. Nevertheless, climate projections are model-dependent and may show systematic biases, requiring a bias correction for any further application. Here, we provide a dataset based on an ensemble of 19 bias-corrected CMIP6 climate models projections for the Brazilian territory based on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We used the Quantile Delta Mapping approach to bias-correct daily time-series of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, solar net radiation, near-surface wind speed, and relative humidity. The bias-corrected dataset is available for both historical (1980-2013) and future (2015-2100) simulations at a 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution. Besides the gridded product, we provide area-averaged projections for 735 catchments included in the Catchments Attributes for Brazil (CABra) dataset. The dataset provides important variables commonly used in environmental and hydroclimatological studies, paving the way for the development of high-quality research on climate change impacts in Brazil.}, }
@article {pmid36668972, year = {2023}, author = {Ivanescu, LM and Bodale, I and Grigore-Hristodorescu, S and Martinescu, G and Andronic, B and Matiut, S and Azoicai, D and Miron, L}, title = {The Risk of Emerging of Dengue Fever in Romania, in the Context of Global Warming.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36668972}, issn = {2414-6366}, abstract = {(1) Background: Few studies to date have assessed the influences induced by climate change on the spatial distribution and population abundance of Aedes albopictus using the latest climate scenarios. In this study, we updated the current distribution of Ae. albopictus mosquitoes and evaluated the changes in their distribution under future climate conditions, as well as the risk of dengue virus emergence in Romania. (2) Methods: Under the two scenarios: High scenario (HS) when no drastic measures to reduce the effects of global warming will be taken, or they are not effective and low scenario (LS) when very stringent greenhouse control measures will be implemented. (3) Results: The results estimate an increase in temperatures in Romania of up to 2.6 °C in HS and up to 0.4 °C in LS, with an increase in the period of virus replication within the vector from June to October in HS and from May to September in LS. Moreover, in 2022, Ae. albopictus was reported in a new county, where it was not identified at the last monitoring in 2020. (4) Conclusions: The rapid spread of this invasive species and the need to implement monitoring and control programs for the Aedes population in Romania are emphasized.}, }
@article {pmid36668829, year = {2022}, author = {Borges, FO and Lopes, VM and Santos, CF and Costa, PR and Rosa, R}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on the Biogeography of Three Amnesic Shellfish Toxin Producing Diatom Species.}, journal = {Toxins}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36668829}, issn = {2072-6651}, mesh = {Humans ; *Diatoms ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Marine Toxins ; Harmful Algal Bloom ; *Microalgae ; Shellfish/analysis ; }, abstract = {Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are considered one of the main risks for marine ecosystems and human health worldwide. Climate change is projected to induce significant changes in species geographic distribution, and, in this sense, it is paramount to accurately predict how it will affect toxin-producing microalgae. In this context, the present study was intended to project the potential biogeographical changes in habitat suitability and occurrence distribution of three key amnesic shellfish toxin (AST)-producing diatom species (i.e., Pseudo-nitzschia australis, P. seriata, and P. fraudulenta) under four different climate change scenarios (i.e., RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) up to 2050 and 2100. For this purpose, we applied species distribution models (SDMs) using four abiotic predictors (i.e., sea surface temperature, salinity, current velocity, and bathymetry) in a MaxEnt framework. Overall, considerable contraction and potential extirpation were projected for all species at lower latitudes together with projected poleward expansions into higher latitudes, mainly in the northern hemisphere. The present study aims to contribute to the knowledge on the impacts of climate change on the biogeography of toxin-producing microalgae species while at the same time advising the correct environmental management of coastal habitats and ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid36662011, year = {2023}, author = {Zhao, H and Xian, X and Liang, T and Wan, F and Shi, J and Liu, W}, title = {Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36662011}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2021YFC2600400//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 32171794//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Phoracantha semipunctata is a destructive invasive alien forest pest worldwide. It primarily damages the eucalyptus via adults, affecting almost all parts of the eucalyptus. Its larvae develop in almost all major tissues of the plant. Phoracantha semipunctata spreads both via the migration of adults and global trade in intercontinental translocation. Currently, this pest has spread to six continents worldwide, except Antarctica, resulting in substantial economic losses. Based on global occurrence data and environmental variables, the potential global geographical distribution of P. semipunctata was predicted using an ensemble model. The centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion scheme were selected to assess niche dynamics during the global invasion process. Our results indicated that the AUC and TSS values of the ensemble model were 0.993 and 0.917, respectively, indicating the high prediction accuracy of the model. The distribution pattern of P. semipunctata is primarily attributed to the temperature seasonality (bio4), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), and human influence index variables. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata is primarily in western and southwestern Asia, western Europe, western and southern North America, southern South America, southern Africa, and eastern and southern Oceania. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata showed a downward trend in the 2030s and the 2050s. The distribution centroid showed a general tendency to shift southward from the near-current to future climate. Phoracantha semipunctata has largely conserved its niche during the global invasion process. More attention should be paid to the early warning, prevention, and control of P. semipunctata in the countries and regions where it has not yet become invasive.}, }
@article {pmid36661979, year = {2023}, author = {Régnier, B and Legrand, J and Calatayud, PA and Rebaudo, F}, title = {Developmental Differentiations of Major Maize Stemborers Due to Global Warming in Temperate and Tropical Climates.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36661979}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {ANR-19-CE32-0001//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; }, abstract = {While many insects are in decline due to global warming, the effect of rising temperatures on crop insect pests is uncertain. A capacity to understand future changes in crop pest populations remains critical to ensure food security. Using temperature-dependent mathematical models of the development of four maize stemborers in temperate and tropical regions, we evaluated the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on development time. While recognizing the limitations of the temperature-dependent development rate approach, we found that global warming could either be beneficial or detrimental to pest development, depending on the optimal temperature for the development of the species and scenarios of climate change. Expected responses range from null development to 1.5 times faster development than expected today. These results suggest that in the medium term, the studied species could benefit from global warming with an accelerated development, while in the long term, their development could either be delayed or accelerated, which may impact their dynamics with implications on maize cultivation.}, }
@article {pmid36661976, year = {2023}, author = {Laporta, GZ and Potter, AM and Oliveira, JFA and Bourke, BP and Pecor, DB and Linton, YM}, title = {Global Distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in a Climate Change Scenario of Regional Rivalry.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36661976}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {307432/2019-0///National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; 2021/06669-6//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; P0065_22_WR and P0050_23_WR//Armed Forces Health Surveillance Division - Global Emerging Infections Surveillance/ ; }, abstract = {Arboviral mosquito vectors are key targets for the surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases worldwide. In recent years, changes to the global distributions of these species have been a major research focus, aimed at predicting outbreaks of arboviral diseases. In this study, we analyzed a global scenario of climate change under regional rivalry to predict changes to these species' distributions over the next century. Using occurrence data from VectorMap and environmental variables (temperature and precipitation) from WorldClim v. 2.1, we first built fundamental niche models for both species with the boosted regression tree modelling approach. A scenario of climate change on their fundamental niche was then analyzed. The shared socioeconomic pathway scenario 3 (regional rivalry) and the global climate model Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model v. 4.1 (GFDL-ESM4.1; gfdl.noaa.gov) were utilized for all analyses, in the following time periods: 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. Outcomes from these analyses showed that future climate change will affect Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus distributions in different ways across the globe. The Northern Hemisphere will have extended Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus distributions in future climate change scenarios, whereas the Southern Hemisphere will have the opposite outcomes. Europe will become more suitable for both species and their related vector-borne diseases. Loss of suitability in the Brazilian Amazon region further indicated that this tropical rainforest biome will have lower levels of precipitation to support these species in the future. Our models provide possible future scenarios to help identify locations for resource allocation and surveillance efforts before a significant threat to human health emerges.}, }
@article {pmid36661975, year = {2023}, author = {Zhao, JQ and Gao, T and Du, JJ and Shi, J}, title = {Future Trends in Obolodiplosis robiniae Distribution across Eurasian Continent under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36661975}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2021YFC2600405//the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 31770687//General Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Obolodiplosis robiniae was discovered in Eurasia at the beginning of the 21st century. In this study, we explore the present and future (in the years 2050 and 2070) trends in the potential distribution of O. robiniae in Eurasia under diverse climate change scenarios based on a maximum entropy model. Our findings indicated that the current potential distribution area of O. robiniae is within the range of 21°34' and 65°39' N in the Eurasian continent. The primary factor controlling the distribution of O. robiniae is temperature. The highly and moderately suitable areas are mainly distributed in the semi-humid and semi-arid regions, which also happen to be the locations where the host black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) grows at its fastest rate. The forecast of the potential distribution area of O. robiniae revealed that the species would benefit from global warming. The region suitable for the habitat of O. robiniae is characterized by a large-scale northward expansion trend and an increase in temperature. This information would help the forestry quarantine departments of Asian and European countries provide early warnings on the probable distribution areas of O. robiniae and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of O. robiniae spread and outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid36661406, year = {2023}, author = {Silverstein, MR and Segrè, D and Bhatnagar, JM}, title = {Environmental microbiome engineering for the mitigation of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {2050-2066}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16609}, pmid = {36661406}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DE-SC0020403//Department of Energy/ ; DE-SC0012704//Department of Energy/ ; DE-SC0022194//Department of Energy/ ; DEAC02-05CH11231//Department of Energy/ ; T32GM130546/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; T32GM100842/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; //NSF Center for Chemical Currencies of a Microbial Planet/ ; NSFOCE-BSF1635070//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB1457695//National Science Foundation/ ; T32GM130546/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; T32GM100842/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Bacteria ; Climate Change ; *Microbiota/physiology ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Environmental microbiome engineering is emerging as a potential avenue for climate change mitigation. In this process, microbial inocula are introduced to natural microbial communities to tune activities that regulate the long-term stabilization of carbon in ecosystems. In this review, we outline the process of environmental engineering and synthesize key considerations about ecosystem functions to target, means of sourcing microorganisms, strategies for designing microbial inocula, methods to deliver inocula, and the factors that enable inocula to establish within a resident community and modify an ecosystem function target. Recent work, enabled by high-throughput technologies and modeling approaches, indicate that microbial inocula designed from the top-down, particularly through directed evolution, may generally have a higher chance of establishing within existing microbial communities than other historical approaches to microbiome engineering. We address outstanding questions about the determinants of inocula establishment and provide suggestions for further research about the possibilities and challenges of environmental microbiome engineering as a tool to combat climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36661082, year = {2023}, author = {Gatto, CR and Williamson, SA and Reina, RD}, title = {Mitigating the effects of climate change on the nests of sea turtles with artificial irrigation.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {e14044}, pmid = {36661082}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Turtles/physiology ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Temperature ; Water ; Nesting Behavior/physiology ; }, abstract = {For sea turtles, like many oviparous species, increasing temperatures during development threaten to increase embryonic mortality, alter offspring quality, and potentially create suboptimal primary sex ratios. Various methods are being implemented to mitigate the effects of climate change on reproductive success, but these methods, such as breeding programs, translocations, and shading, are often invasive and expensive. Irrigation is an alternative strategy for cooling nests that, depending on location, can be implemented relatively quickly and cheaply. However, multiple factors, including ambient conditions, nest substrate, and species characteristics, can influence irrigation success. Additionally, irrigation can vary in duration, frequency, and the volume of water applied to nests, which influences the cooling achieved and embryonic survival. Thus, it is critical to understand how to maximize cooling and manage risks before implementing irrigation as a nest-cooling strategy. We reviewed the literature on nest irrigation to examine whether artificial irrigation is feasible as a population management tool. Key factors that affected cooling were the volume of water applied and the frequency of applications. Embryonic responses varied with species, ambient conditions, and the timing of irrigation during development. Nest inundation was the key risk to a successful irrigation regime. Future irrigation regimes must identify clear targets, either primary or adult sex ratios, that maximize population viability. Monitoring population responses and adjusting the irrigation regime in response to population characteristics will be critical. Most studies reported on the manipulation of only one or two variables, further research is required to understand how altering multiple factors in an irrigation regime influences the cooling achieved and embryonic responses.}, }
@article {pmid36661061, year = {2023}, author = {Ma, L and Hou, C and Jiang, ZW and Du, WG}, title = {Divergent effects of climate change on the egg-laying opportunity of species in cold and warm regions.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {37}, number = {3}, pages = {e14056}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.14056}, pmid = {36661061}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate warming can substantially impact embryonic development and juvenile growth in oviparous species. Estimating the overall impacts of climate warming on oviparous reproduction is difficult because egg-laying events happen throughout the reproductive season. Successful egg laying requires the completion of embryonic development as well as hatching timing conducive to offspring survival and energy accumulation. We propose a new metric-egg-laying opportunity (EO)-to estimate the annual hours during which a clutch of freshly laid eggs yields surviving offspring that store sufficient energy for overwintering. We estimated the EO within the distribution of a model species, Sceloporus undulatus, under recent climate condition and a climate-warming scenario by combining microclimate data, developmental functions, and biophysical models. We predicted that EO will decline as the climate warms at 74.8% of 11,407 sites. Decreasing hatching success and offspring energy accounted for more lost EO hours (72.6% and 72.9%) than the occurrence of offspring heat stress (59.9%). Nesting deeper (at a depth of 12 cm) may be a more effective behavioral adjustment for retaining EO than using shadier (50% shade) nests because the former fully mitigated the decline of EO under the considered warming scenario at more sites (66.1%) than the latter (28.3%). We advocate for the use of EO in predicting the impacts of climate warming on oviparous animals because it encapsulates the integrative impacts of climate warming on all stages of reproductive life history.}, }
@article {pmid36660456, year = {2023}, author = {Baral, K and Adhikari, B and Bhandari, S and Kunwar, RM and Sharma, HP and Aryal, A and Ji, W}, title = {Impact of climate change on distribution of common leopard (Panthera pardus) and its implication on conservation and conflict in Nepal.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e12807}, pmid = {36660456}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change is projected to create alterations in species distributions over the planet. The common leopard (Panthera pardus) serves an important ecological function as a member of the big carnivore guild, but little is known about how climate change may affect their distribution. In this study, we use MaxEnt to simulate the geographic distributions by illustrating potential present and future ranges of common leopard by utilizing presence records alongside important topographic and bioclimatic variables based on two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The goals of this study was to look into possible distribution ranges of common leopards due to climate change, as well as explore the implications for conservation and potential conflict with humans. At present, 4% of Nepal was found to be highly suitable for common leopards, 43% suitable, 19% marginally suitable, and 34% unsuitable. A large portion of the climatically suitable habitat was confined to non-protected areas, and the majority of the highly suitable habitat was encompassed by forest land, followed by agricultural areas. Elevation, mean temperature of driest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation seasonality were the variables influencing habitat suitability for the common leopard. A significant increase in marginally suitable habitat was observed in the high mountain region, indicating a shift of habitat in upper elevation areas due to the effects of climate change. We recommend timely management of these potential habitats to expand the range of this vulnerable species. At the same time, a combination of expanding new habitats and poor management practices could escalate human-leopard conflict. Therefore, further study on the impact of climate change on the distribution of prey species and proper habitat management techniques should be prioritized to mitigate conflicts.}, }
@article {pmid36658205, year = {2023}, author = {Kazemi Garajeh, M and Salmani, B and Zare Naghadehi, S and Valipoori Goodarzi, H and Khasraei, A}, title = {An integrated approach of remote sensing and geospatial analysis for modeling and predicting the impacts of climate change on food security.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1057}, pmid = {36658205}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Remote Sensing Technology ; Soil ; Agriculture/methods ; Food Security ; }, abstract = {The agriculture sector provides the majority of food supplies, ensures food security, and promotes sustainable development. Due to recent climate changes as well as trends in human population growth and environmental degradation, the need for timely agricultural information continues to rise. This study analyzes and predicts the impacts of climate change on food security (FS). For 2002-2021, Landsat, MODIS satellite images and predisposing variables (land surface temperature (LST), evapotranspiration, precipitation, sunny days, cloud ratio, soil salinity, soil moisture, groundwater quality, soil types, digital elevation model, slope, and aspect) were used. First, we used a deep learning convolutional neural network (DL-CNN) based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) to detect agricultural land (AL). A remote sensing-based approach combined with the analytical network process (ANP) model was used to identify frost-affected areas. We then analyzed the relationship between climatic, geospatial, and topographical variables and AL and frost-affected areas. We found negative correlations of - 0.80, - 0.58, - 0.43, and - 0.45 between AL and LST, evapotranspiration, cloud ratio, and soil salinity, respectively. There is a positive correlation between AL and precipitation, sunny days, soil moisture, and groundwater quality of 0.39, 0.25, 0.21, and 0.77, respectively. The correlation between frost-affected areas and LST, evapotranspiration, cloud ratio, elevation, slope, and aspect are 0.55, 0.40, 0.52, 0.35, 0.45, and 0.39. Frost-affected areas have negative correlations with precipitation, sunny day, and soil moisture of - 0.68, - 0.23, and - 0.38, respectively. Our findings show that the increase in LST, evapotranspiration, cloud ratio, and soil salinity is associated with the decrease in AL. Additionally, AL decreases with a decreasing in precipitation, sunny days, soil moisture, and groundwater quality. It was also found that as LST, evapotranspiration, cloud ratio, elevation, slope, and aspect increase, frost-affected areas increase as well. Furthermore, frost-affected areas increase when precipitation, sunny days, and soil moisture decrease. Finally, we predicted the FS threat for 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060 using the CA-Markov method. According to the results, the AL will decrease by 0.36% from 2030 to 2060. Between 2030 and 2060, however, the area with very high frost-affected will increase by about 10.64%. In sum, this study accentuates the critical impacts of climate change on the FS in the region. Our findings and proposed methods could be helpful for researchers to model and quantify the climate change impacts on the FS in different regions and periods.}, }
@article {pmid36657677, year = {2023}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Nagy, GJ and Setti, AFF and Sharifi, A and Donkor, FK and Batista, K and Djekic, I}, title = {Handling the impacts of climate change on soil biodiversity.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {869}, number = {}, pages = {161671}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161671}, pmid = {36657677}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Soil ; Climate Change ; Agriculture ; Biodiversity ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Land as a whole, and soil, in particular, plays a critical function in the climate system. The various types of land use, especially agriculture and forestry, account for nearly a quarter of the greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, the world's soil is under pressure from many factors, including climate change and land use change. Increases in temperature, prolonged drought and floods put pressure on the soil. In order to contribute to a better understanding of these interactions, we conducted a review combining a narrative-focused approach, selecting examples worldwide, and a bibliometric analysis (VosViewer software). This review reports on a study that analyses how climate change and land use change may negatively influence soil biodiversity and related services. It also outlines some of the actions needed to increase the resilience of soil biodiversity in the context of a changing climate. Some key findings are: 1) Well-managed soils are critical for resilient production systems. 2) Integrated agricultural production systems have gained prominence as climate-resilient production systems. 3) Agricultural zoning may be a valuable tool in integrated systems to minimise the effects of climate change. However, it is vital to continuously monitor environmental variations so producers can be more prepared for climate change and extreme events. Finally, adequate water management is essential for soil functioning under climate change aggravating water scarcity. An intersectoral approach between critical sectors facilitates comprehensive water management.}, }
@article {pmid36657672, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, Y and An, CB and Zheng, LY and Liu, LY and Zhang, WS and Lu, C and Zhang, YZ}, title = {Assessment of lake area in response to climate change at varying elevations: A case study of Mt. Tianshan, Central Asia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {869}, number = {}, pages = {161665}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161665}, pmid = {36657672}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Changes in lake area (water surface area) are often considered accurate and sensitive representations of climate change. However, the role that elevation plays in this dynamic is somewhat unclear; studies remain inconclusive as to whether lake responses are consistent across elevation gradients. Here, we used Landsat and keyhole satellite images to quantify lake area changes from the 1960s to 2020 at different elevations in Central Asia's Tianshan Mountains and relate them to both climatic and anthropogenic factors. The results revealed that all low-elevation lakes showed a decreasing trend, and the total area of all monitored low-elevation lakes was reduced by 18.50 %. The total area of the mid-elevation lakes decreased by 0.16 %, while the total area of the high-elevation glacial lakes increased by 4.35 %. Lakes are recharged by a variety of influxes including glacial meltwater and precipitation. Notably, human activities (urban and agricultural water consumption) were the dominant factors in the shrinkage of low-elevation lakes. Climatic factors were the main driving factors of mid-elevation lake changes, and these lakes appeared to be more sensitive to temperature changes than lakes at other elevations. In addition, significant warming dominated area changes in high-elevation proglacial and unconnected glacial lakes. Overall, those results emphasized that when using lakes to reconstruct paleoclimates or predict lake evolution, it is necessary to consider how elevation gradients and recharge types may affect lake sensitivity to variations in climatic and anthropogenic activity.}, }
@article {pmid36657338, year = {2023}, author = {Snell, M and Baillie, A and Berrow, S and Deaville, R and Penrose, R and Perkins, M and Williams, R and Simmonds, MP}, title = {An investigation into the effects of climate change on baleen whale distribution in the British Isles.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {187}, number = {}, pages = {114565}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.114565}, pmid = {36657338}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; United Kingdom ; *Minke Whale ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to impact the distribution of many marine species. In the North-East Atlantic and elsewhere in the world, studies indicate that climate change is leading to poleward shifts in cetacean distribution. Here, strandings data collected in the British Isles from 1990 to 2020 were used to assess whether there is evidence of a shift in baleen whale distribution. Linear regression models were used to compare the number of strandings over time between six regions of the British Isles and, whilst the results indicate no significant change in the number of strandings in the most southerly region of the British Isles, there have been significant increases in more northern regions. Data related to stranded minke whales is the primary driver of these increases, with a number of potential variables affecting this trend, including observer effort. These variables are discussed and further research to explore this potential association is suggested.}, }
@article {pmid36657268, year = {2023}, author = {Réalis-Doyelle, E and Cottin, N and Daufresne, M and Naffrechoux, E and Reynaud, S and Guillard, J}, title = {Evolution of pace-of-life syndrome under conditions of maternal PCB contamination and global warming in early life stages of cold stenothermic fish (Arctic char).}, journal = {Aquatic toxicology (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {255}, number = {}, pages = {106396}, doi = {10.1016/j.aquatox.2023.106396}, pmid = {36657268}, issn = {1879-1514}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; *Polychlorinated Biphenyls/toxicity ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity ; *Environmental Pollutants ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {The end of the 20th century was characterised by rapid modifications of ecosystem functioning under different pressures (such as eutrophication and toxic pollution). Increasing temperatures in the context of global warming could have indirect consequences, such as increased bioavailability of hydrophobic organic pollutants amongst aquatic species. According to the "pace-of-life syndrome" (POLS) theory, these stressors could lead to covariations in many life traits. Lake Bourget is the largest natural lake in France and has been highly polluted from the fifties to the eighties both with a high load of nutrients (wastewater discharge) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) (industrial effluent discharge). Despite improvements in water quality since the 21st century, PCB levels are still higher than the United States Environmental Protection Agency cut-off for wildlife protection. The population of Arctic char, a cold stenothermic salmonid, has remained low in Lake Bourget for the last ten years despite restocking efforts and complete re-oligotrophication. We hypothesised that PCB pollution can affect the Arctic char population and that the increase in water temperature could magnify the effects of PCB. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the effects of maternal PCB contamination on offspring using a multiparametric and multiscale approach. Female Arctic char were contaminated with PCB before spawning, and each fertilised spawn was incubated at two temperatures (4 and 8.5 °C). The results showed that co-exposure to increased temperature and maternal PCB contamination influenced biodemographic, physiological, and behavioural parameters. The effects were highly dependant on the developmental stage. Based on the POLS theory, a continuum of life traits that may reflect potential physiological and behavioural modifications in response to these concurrent stressors is highlighted.}, }
@article {pmid36657186, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, W}, title = {Integration of mathematical modeling of vegetation patterns with data and climate changes: Comments on "Impacts of climate change on vegetation pattern: Mathematical modeling and data analysis" by Gui-Quan Sun et al.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {44}, number = {}, pages = {148-149}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2022.12.020}, pmid = {36657186}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; *Epidemics ; Data Analysis ; Ecosystem ; China ; }, }
@article {pmid36656483, year = {2023}, author = {Cao, Y and Qi, F and Cui, H and Yuan, M}, title = {Correction to: Knowledge domain and emerging trends of carbon footprint in the field of climate change and energy use: a bibliometric analysis.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {13}, pages = {35871}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-023-25426-6}, pmid = {36656483}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid36655296, year = {2023}, author = {Scanes, E and Byrne, M}, title = {Warming and hypoxia threaten a valuable scallop fishery: A warning for commercial bivalve ventures in climate change hotspots.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {2043-2045}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16606}, pmid = {36655296}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fisheries ; *Pectinidae ; Ecosystem ; Seafood ; Hypoxia ; }, abstract = {Marine molluscs constitute the second largest marine fishery and are often caught in coastal and estuarine habitats. Temperature is increasing in these habitats at a rate greater than predicted, especially in warming "hotspots". This warming is accompanied by hypoxia in a duo of stressors that threatens coastal mollusc fisheries and aquaculture. Collapses of the northern bay scallop (Argopecten irradians irradians) fisheries on the Atlantic coast of the USA are likely to be driven by rapid rates of coastal warming and may provide an ominous glimpse into the prospects of other coastal mollusc fisheries in climate warming hotspots.}, }
@article {pmid36653604, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Global warming has reached the top of the Greenland ice sheet.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {36653604}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid36653418, year = {2023}, author = {Fajardo, J and Lessmann, J and Devenish, C and Bonaccorso, E and Felicísimo, &#xc1;M and Rojas-Runjaic, FJM and Rojas, H and Lentino, M and Muñoz, J and Mateo, RG}, title = {The performance of protected-area expansions in representing tropical Andean species: past trends and climate change prospects.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {966}, pmid = {36653418}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Population Growth ; Climate Change ; Endangered Species ; Amphibians ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Protected area (PA) extent has increased significantly over the last 150 years globally, but it is yet unclear whether progress in expanding coverage has been accompanied by improved performance in ecological representation. Here, we explore temporal trends in the performance of PA networks in representing > 16,000 vertebrate and plant species in tropical Andean countries based on species bioclimatic niche modelling. We use a randomization analysis to assess whether representation gains over time (1937-2015) are the expected consequence of increasing the overall area of the network or the result of better designed networks. We also explore the impact of climate change on protected-area representation based on projected species distributions in 2070. We found that PAs added in the last three to four decades were better at representing species diversity than random additions overall. Threatened species, amphibians and reptiles are the exception. Species representation is projected to decrease across PAs under climate change, although PA expansions over the last decade (2006-2015) better represented species' future bioclimatic niches than did sites selected at random for most evaluated groups. These findings indicate an unbalanced representation across taxa, and raises concern over under-represented groups, including threatened species, and species' representation under climate change scenarios. However, they also suggest that decisions related to locating protected areas have become more strategic in recent decades and illustrate that indicators tracking representativeness of networks are crucial in PA monitoring frameworks.}, }
@article {pmid36653254, year = {2023}, author = {Dentel, A and Koch, E}, title = {Keratitis due to global warming.}, journal = {Journal francais d'ophtalmologie}, volume = {46}, number = {2}, pages = {201}, doi = {10.1016/j.jfo.2022.09.016}, pmid = {36653254}, issn = {1773-0597}, mesh = {Humans ; *Global Warming ; *Keratitis/diagnosis/etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36652937, year = {2023}, author = {Lachkar, S and Crombag, LMM and Musani, AI}, title = {How Interventional Pulmonologists Can Address Climate Change.}, journal = {Respiration; international review of thoracic diseases}, volume = {102}, number = {3}, pages = {207-210}, doi = {10.1159/000528764}, pmid = {36652937}, issn = {1423-0356}, mesh = {Humans ; *Pulmonologists ; Climate Change ; Bronchoscopy ; *Pulmonary Medicine ; }, }
@article {pmid37117964, year = {2022}, author = {Fujimori, S and Wu, W and Doelman, J and Frank, S and Hristov, J and Kyle, P and Sands, R and van Zeist, WJ and Havlik, P and Domínguez, IP and Sahoo, A and Stehfest, E and Tabeau, A and Valin, H and van Meijl, H and Hasegawa, T and Takahashi, K}, title = {Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {110-121}, pmid = {37117964}, issn = {2662-1355}, abstract = {Earlier studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation strategies on food security, particularly due to food price increases-but without distinguishing these strategies' individual effects under different conditions. Using six global agroeconomic models, we show the extent to which three factors-non-CO2 emissions reduction, bioenergy production and afforestation-may change food security and agricultural market conditions under 2 °C climate-stabilization scenarios. Results show that afforestation (often simulated in the models by imposing carbon prices on land carbon stocks) could have a large impact on food security relative to non-CO2 emissions policies (generally implemented as emissions taxes). Respectively, these measures put an additional 41.9 million and 26.7 million people at risk of hunger in 2050 compared with the current trend scenario baseline. This highlights the need for better coordination in emissions reduction and agricultural market management policies as well as better representation of land use and associated greenhouse gas emissions in modelling.}, }
@article {pmid37118480, year = {2022}, author = {Bebber, DP}, title = {Global warming and China's crop pests.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {6-7}, pmid = {37118480}, issn = {2662-1355}, }
@article {pmid37228793, year = {2021}, author = {Washbourne, CL and Bell, S and Osborn, D}, title = {Community responses to climate change: Editorial call for submissions to UCL Open: Environment Special Series.}, journal = {UCL open. Environment}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {e028}, pmid = {37228793}, issn = {2632-0886}, }
@article {pmid37117502, year = {2021}, author = {Harrison, MT}, title = {Climate change benefits negated by extreme heat.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {2}, number = {11}, pages = {855-856}, pmid = {37117502}, issn = {2662-1355}, }
@article {pmid37117731, year = {2021}, author = {Fan, Y and Tjiputra, J and Muri, H and Lombardozzi, D and Park, CE and Wu, S and Keith, D}, title = {Solar geoengineering can alleviate climate change pressures on crop yields.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {2}, number = {5}, pages = {373-381}, pmid = {37117731}, issn = {2662-1355}, support = {343327//Harvard University | Center for the Environment, Harvard University (Harvard University Center for the Environment)/ ; 641816//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 275268//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d (Research Council of Norway)/ ; }, abstract = {Solar geoengineering (SG) and CO2 emissions reduction can each alleviate anthropogenic climate change, but their impacts on food security are not yet fully understood. Using an advanced crop model within an Earth system model, we analysed the yield responses of six major crops to three SG technologies (SGs) and emissions reduction when they provide roughly the same reduction in radiative forcing and assume the same land use. We found sharply distinct yield responses to changes in radiation, moisture and CO2, but comparable significant cooling benefits for crop yields by all four methods. Overall, global yields increase ~10% under the three SGs and decrease 5% under emissions reduction, the latter primarily due to reduced CO2 fertilization, relative to business as usual by the late twenty-first century. Relative humidity dominates the hydrological effect on yields of rainfed crops, with little contribution from precipitation. The net insolation effect is negligible across all SGs, contrary to previous findings.}, }
@article {pmid36654138, year = {2021}, author = {Christidis, N and Stott, PA}, title = {The influence of anthropogenic climate change on wet and dry summers in Europe.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {66}, number = {8}, pages = {813-823}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2021.01.020}, pmid = {36654138}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {Understanding the role of anthropogenic forcings in regional hydrological changes can help communities plan their adaptation in an informed manner. Here we apply attribution research methods to investigate the effect of human influence on historical trends in wet and dry summers and changes in the likelihood of extreme events in Europe. We employ an ensemble of new climate models and compare experiments with and without the effect of human influence to assess the anthropogenic contribution. Future changes are also analysed with projections to year 2100. We employ two drought indices defined relative to the pre-industrial climate: one driven by changes in rainfall only and one that also includes the effect of temperature via changes in potential evapotranspiration. Both indices suggest significant changes in European summers have already emerged above variability and are expected to intensify in the future, leading to widespread dryer conditions which are more extreme in the south. When only the effect of rainfall is considered, there is a distinct contrast between a shift towards wetter conditions in the north and dryer in the south of the continent, as well as an overall increase in variability. However, when the effect of warming is also included, it largely masks the wet trends in the north, resulting in increasingly drier summers across most of the continent. Historical index trends are already detected in the observations, while models suggest that what were extremely dry conditions in the pre-industrial climate will become normal in the south by the end of the century.}, }
@article {pmid37117660, year = {2021}, author = {Tesfaye, K}, title = {Climate change in the hottest wheat regions.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {8-9}, pmid = {37117660}, issn = {2662-1355}, }
@article {pmid36659049, year = {2020}, author = {Jiao, N and Chen, F and Hou, Z}, title = {Combating climate change in a post-COVID-19 era.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {65}, number = {23}, pages = {1958-1960}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2020.08.017}, pmid = {36659049}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid37128058, year = {2020}, author = {Guo, Y}, title = {Support in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {1}, number = {12}, pages = {773}, doi = {10.1038/s43016-020-00206-4}, pmid = {37128058}, issn = {2662-1355}, }
@article {pmid36777089, year = {2020}, author = {Gössling, S and Humpe, A}, title = {The global scale, distribution and growth of aviation: Implications for climate change.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {65}, number = {}, pages = {102194}, pmid = {36777089}, issn = {0959-3780}, abstract = {Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, global air transport demand was expected to triple between 2020 and 2050. The pandemic, which reduced global air travel significantly, provides an opportunity to discuss the scale, distribution and growth of aviation until 2018, also with a view to consider the climate change implications of a return to volume growth. Industry statistics, data provided by supranational organizations, and national surveys are evaluated to develop a pre-pandemic understanding of air transport demand at global, regional, national and individual scales. Results suggest that the share of the world's population travelling by air in 2018 was 11%, with at most 4% taking international flights. Data also supports that a minor share of air travelers is responsible for a large share of warming: The percentile of the most frequent fliers - at most 1% of the world population - likely accounts for more than half of the total emissions from passenger air travel. Individual users of private aircraft can contribute to emissions of up to 7,500 t CO2 per year. Findings are specifically relevant with regard to the insight that a large share of global aviation emissions is not covered by policy agreements.}, }
@article {pmid36659242, year = {2020}, author = {Li, Q and Sun, W and Huang, B and Dong, W and Wang, X and Zhai, P and Jones, P}, title = {Consistency of global warming trends strengthened since 1880s.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {65}, number = {20}, pages = {1709-1712}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2020.06.009}, pmid = {36659242}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid36659099, year = {2020}, author = {Yu, Y and Chen, X and Disse, M and Cyffka, B and Lei, J and Zhang, H and Brieden, A and Welp, M and Abuduwaili, J and Li, Y and Zeng, F and Gui, D and Thevs, N and Ta, Z and Gao, X and Pi, Y and Yu, X and Sun, L and Yu, R}, title = {Climate change in Central Asia: Sino-German cooperative research findings.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {65}, number = {9}, pages = {689-692}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2020.02.008}, pmid = {36659099}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid37284128, year = {2020}, author = {Tisné, S and Denis, M and Domonhédo, H and Pallas, B and Cazemajor, M and Tranbarger, TJ and Morcillo, F}, title = {Environmental and trophic determinism of fruit abscission and outlook with climate change in tropical regions.}, journal = {Plant-environment interactions (Hoboken, N.J.)}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {17-28}, pmid = {37284128}, issn = {2575-6265}, abstract = {Fruit abscission facilitates the optimal conditions and timing of seed dispersal. Environmental regulation of tropical fruit abscission has received little attention, even though climate change may have its strongest impacts in tropical regions. In this study, oil palm fruit abscission was monitored during multiple years in the Benin Republic to take advantage of the climatic seasonality and the continuous fruit production by this species. An innovative multivariable statistical method was used to identify the best predictors of fruit abscission among a set of climate and ecophysiological variables, and the stage of inflorescence and fruit bunch development when the variables are perceived. The effects of climate scenarios on fruit abscission were then predicted based on the calibrated model. We found complex regulation takes place at specific stages of inflorescence and bunch development, even long before the fruit abscission zone is competent to execute abscission. Among the predictors selected, temperature variations during inflorescence and fruit bunch development are major determinants of the fruit abscission process. Furthermore, the timing of ripe fruit drop is determined by temperature in combination with the trophic status. Finally, climate simulations revealed that the abscission process is robust and is more affected by seasonal variations than by extreme scenarios. Our investigations highlighted the central function of the abscission zone as the sensor of environmental signals during reproductive development. Coupling ecophysiological and statistical modeling was an efficient approach to disentangle this complex environmental regulation.}, }
@article {pmid36747431, year = {2020}, author = {Yang, F and Huang, J and Zhou, C and Yang, X and Ali, M and Li, C and Pan, H and Huo, W and Yu, H and Liu, X and Zheng, X and Han, D and He, Q and Meng, L and Chang, J}, title = {Taklimakan desert carbon-sink decreases under climate change.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {65}, number = {6}, pages = {431-433}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2019.12.022}, pmid = {36747431}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid36659232, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, F and Shi, X and Zeng, C and Wang, L and Xiao, X and Wang, G and Chen, Y and Zhang, H and Lu, X and Immerzeel, W}, title = {Recent stepwise sediment flux increase with climate change in the Tuotuo River in the central Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {65}, number = {5}, pages = {410-418}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2019.12.017}, pmid = {36659232}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {The riverine sediment flux (SF) is an essential pathway for nutrients and pollutants delivery and considered as an important indicator of land degradation and environment changes. With growing interest in environmental changes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), this work investigated the variation of the SF in response to climate change in the headwater of the Yangtze River over the past 30 years. Annual time series of hydro-meteorological variables during 1986-2014 indicate significantly increasing trends of air temperature, precipitation, ground temperature, river discharge, suspended sediment concentration and SF. Stepwise changes were identified with significantly higher values of the above variables in 1998-2014 compared with 1986-1997, which could potentially be attributed to the strong 1997 El Niño event. Double-mass plots indicated that both meltwater and rainfall contributed to the increased river discharge while the increased SF mostly resulted from enhanced erosive power and transport capacities of the increased discharge. However, it was buffered by a decrease in sediment source due to the shift of maximum monthly rainfall from June/July to July/August during which period a denser vegetation cover prevents soil erosion. Partial least squares structural equation modeling analysis confirmed the dominance of warming on the increase of discharge amplified by increased precipitation. It also confirmed that the increased precipitation drives the increase in suspended sediment concentration. Both processes conspire and equally contribute to the stepwise increase of SF. This study provides important insights into the controlling processes for recent SF changes and gives guidance for water and soil conservation on the TP.}, }
@article {pmid36659085, year = {2020}, author = {Li, F and Liu, J and Chen, G and Kong, L and Zhang, X}, title = {A rapid late Holocene lake ecosystem shift driven by climate change: evidence from the first cladoceran record from an alpine lake in northern China.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {65}, number = {4}, pages = {253-256}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2019.12.010}, pmid = {36659085}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid36659178, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, W and Zhou, T}, title = {Increasing impacts from extreme precipitation on population over China with global warming.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {65}, number = {3}, pages = {243-252}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2019.12.002}, pmid = {36659178}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {Precipitation-related extremes are among the most impact-relevant consequences of a warmer climate, particularly for China, a region vulnerable to global warming and with a large population. Understanding the impacts and risks induced by future extreme precipitation changes is critical for mitigation and adaptation planning. Here, extreme precipitation changes under different levels of global warming and their associated impacts on populations in China are investigated using multimodel climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and population projections under Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Heavy precipitation would intensify with warming across China at a rate of 6.52% (5.22%-8.57%) per degree of global warming. The longest dry spell length would increase (decrease) south (north) of ~34°N. The low warming target of the Paris Agreement could substantially reduce the extreme precipitation related impacts compared to higher warming levels. For the area weighted average changes, the intensification in wet extremes could be reduced by 3.22%, 9.42% and 16.70% over China, and the lengthening of dry spells could be reduced by 0.72%, 4.75% and 5.31% in southeastern China, respectively, if global warming is limited to 1.5 °C as compared to 2, 3 and 4 °C. The Southeastern China is the hotspot of enhanced impacts due to the dense population. The impacts on populations induced by extreme precipitation changes are dominated by climate change, while future population redistribution plays a minor role.}, }
@article {pmid37128000, year = {2020}, author = {Rosenzweig, C and Mbow, C and Barioni, LG and Benton, TG and Herrero, M and Krishnapillai, M and Liwenga, ET and Pradhan, P and Rivera-Ferre, MG and Sapkota, T and Tubiello, FN and Xu, Y and Mencos Contreras, E and Portugal-Pereira, J}, title = {Climate change responses benefit from a global food system approach.}, journal = {Nature food}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {94-97}, pmid = {37128000}, issn = {2662-1355}, }
@article {pmid36659651, year = {2019}, author = {He, Q and Zhou, G and Lü, X and Zhou, M}, title = {Climatic suitability and spatial distribution for summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {64}, number = {10}, pages = {690-697}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.030}, pmid = {36659651}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {Evaluating climatic suitability of crop cultivation lays a foundation for agriculture coping with climate change scientifically. Herein, we analyse changes in the climatically suitable distribution of summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 °C (GW1.5) and 2.0 °C (GW2.0) global warming in the future according to the temperature control targets set by the Paris Agreement. Compared with the reference period (1971-2000), the summer maize cultivation climatically suitable region (CSR) in China mainly shifts eastwards, and its acreage significantly decreases at both GW1.5 and GW2.0. Despite no dramatic changes in the CSR spatial pattern, there are considerable decreases in the acreages of optimum and suitable regions (the core of the main producing region), indicating that half-a-degree more global warming is unfavourable for summer maize production in China's main producing region. When the global warming threshold increases from GW1.5 to GW2.0, the centres-of-gravity of optimum areas shift northeastward under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the centres-of-gravity of both suitable and less suitable areas shift northwestward, though the northward trend is more prominent for the less suitable areas, and the centre-of-gravity of unsuitable areas shifts southeastward. Generally, half-a-degree more global warming drives the cultivable areas of summer maize to shift northward in China, while the west region shows a certain potential for expansion of summer maize cultivation.}, }
@article {pmid36659721, year = {2019}, author = {Cooper, OR}, title = {Detecting the fingerprints of observed climate change on surface ozone variability.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {64}, number = {6}, pages = {359-360}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2019.02.013}, pmid = {36659721}, issn = {2095-9281}, }
@article {pmid36659714, year = {2019}, author = {Ding, Y and Zhang, S and Zhao, L and Li, Z and Kang, S}, title = {Global warming weakening the inherent stability of glaciers and permafrost.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {64}, number = {4}, pages = {245-253}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2018.12.028}, pmid = {36659714}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {The Cryosphere has been undergoing a worldwide retreat, as seen in the decrease in the areal extent and volume of glaciers and in the areal extent of permafrost. This paper presents a systematic examination of the inherent stability changes of glaciers and permafrost caused by warming. Various study results suggest that over the past 30 years, the internal temperature of glaciers and permafrost exhibits an overall accelerating warming trend. The warming rate peaked in the mid-2000s and slowed slightly for several years afterward. In recent years, however, the warming rate has seemed to pick up again. The warming of glaciers and permafrost has exerted great impact on their stability, displayed as intensified melting, increased glacier surging, enlargement of supraglacial lakes, and increased permafrost degradation. Even without a future temperature increase, some glaciers will continue to shrink, and the number of surging glaciers will increase. The transition from low-temperature to high-temperature permafrost is a noticeable warning sign of a comprehensive degradation of permafrost. These results indicate that "warming" glaciers and permafrost will exert significant impacts on the hydrology, ecology, and stability of engineering in cold regions.}, }
@article {pmid36658819, year = {2018}, author = {Zhou, T and Ren, L and Liu, H and Lu, J}, title = {Impact of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming on aircraft takeoff performance in China.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {63}, number = {11}, pages = {700-707}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2018.03.018}, pmid = {36658819}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {Associated with global warming, climate extremes such as extreme temperature will significantly increase. Understanding how climate change will impact the airflights is important to the planning of future flight operations. In this study, the impacts of 1.5 and 2 degree's global warming on the aircraft takeoff performance in China are investigated using a unique climate projection data from an international collaboration project named HAPPI. It is found that the mean summer daily maximum temperature, which is a major factor that affects the flight through changing the aircraft's takeoff weight, will increase significantly with magnitude less than 1.5 °C over most parts of China except for the Tibetan Plateau. The half a degree additional global warming will lead to higher extreme temperature in the arid and semi-arid western China, the Tibetan Plateau and the northeastern China, while the change in eastern China is weak. Five airports including Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming, Lasa and Urumqi will see ∼1.0°-2.0 °C (1.4°-3.0 °C) higher daily maximum temperature under 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) scenario. The half-degree additional warming will lead to a shift toward higher extreme temperature in these five sites. For both 1.5° and 2.0 °C scenarios, the number of weight-restriction days will increase significantly at 3 airports including Beijing, Shanghai, and Lasa. Urumqi will witness an increase of weight-restriction days only in 2.0 °C future.}, }
@article {pmid36658884, year = {2018}, author = {Hu, Y and Huang, H and Zhou, C}, title = {Widening and weakening of the Hadley circulation under global warming.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {63}, number = {10}, pages = {640-644}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2018.04.020}, pmid = {36658884}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {The Hadley circulation is one of the most important atmospheric circulations. Widening of the Hadley circulation has drawn extensive studies in the past decade. The key concern is that widening of the Hadley circulation would cause poleward shift of the subtropical dry zone. Various metrics have been applied to measure the widening of the tropics. What are responsible for the observed widening trends of the Hadley circulation? How anthropogenic and natural forcings caused the widening? How the widening results in regional climatic effects? These are the major questions in studing the widening of the Hadley circulation. While both observations and simulations all show widening of the Hadley circulation in the past few decades, there are no general agreements of changes in the strength of the Hadley circulation. Although some reanalysis datasets show strengthening of the Hadley circulation, it was shown that the strengthening trend could be artificial, and simulations show weakening of the Hadley circulation for global greenhouse warming. In the present paper, we shall briefly review the major progresses of studies in trends in width and strength of the Hadley circulation. We address answers to these questions, clarify inconsistent results, and propose ideas for future studies.}, }
@article {pmid36659011, year = {2018}, author = {Li, W and Jiang, Z and Zhang, X and Li, L and Sun, Y}, title = {Additional risk in extreme precipitation in China from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C global warming levels.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {228-234}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2017.12.021}, pmid = {36659011}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {To avoid dangerous climate change impact, the Paris Agreement sets out two ambitious goals: to limit the global warming to be well below 2 °C and to pursue effort for the global warming to be below 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level. As climate change risks may be region-dependent, changes in magnitude and probability of extreme precipitation over China are investigated under those two global warming levels based on simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Projects Phase 5. The focus is on the added changes due to the additional half a degree warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Results show that regional average changes in the magnitude do not depend on the return periods with a relative increase around 7% and 11% at the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, respectively. The additional half a degree global warming adds an additional increase in the magnitude by nearly 4%. The regional average changes in term of occurrence probabilities show dependence on the return periods, with rarer events (longer return periods) having larger increase of risk. For the 100-year historical event, the probability is projected to increase by a factor of 1.6 and 2.4 at the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, respectively. The projected changes in extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid36659388, year = {2017}, author = {Wang, X and Jiang, D and Lang, X}, title = {Future extreme climate changes linked to global warming intensity.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {62}, number = {24}, pages = {1673-1680}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2017.11.004}, pmid = {36659388}, issn = {2095-9281}, abstract = {Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) daily dataset, we investigate changes of the terrestrial extreme climates given that the global mean temperature increases persistently under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Compared to preindustrial conditions, more statistically significant extreme temperatures, precipitations, and dry spells are expected in the 21st century. Cold extremes decrease and warm extremes increase in a warmer world, and cold extremes tend to be more sensitive to global warming than the warm ones. When the global mean temperature increases, cold nights, cold days, and warm nights all display nonlinear relationships with it, such as the weakening of the link projected after 3 °C global warming, while the other indices generally exhibit differently, with linear relationships. Additionally, the relative changes in the indices related to extreme precipitation show significantly consistent linear changes with the global warming magnitude. Compared with the precipitation extremes, changes in temperature extremes are more strongly related to the global mean temperature changes. For the projection of the extreme precipitation changes, models show higher uncertainty than that in extreme temperature changes, and the uncertainty for the precipitation extremes becomes more remarkable when the global warming exceeds 5 °C.}, }
@article {pmid36652872, year = {2023}, author = {Rawson, T and Doohan, P and Hauck, K and Murray, KA and Ferguson, N}, title = {Climate change and communicable diseases in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.}, journal = {Epidemics}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {100667}, doi = {10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100667}, pmid = {36652872}, issn = {1878-0067}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {A review of the extant literature reveals the extent to which the spread of communicable diseases will be significantly impacted by climate change. Specific research into how this will likely be observed in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is, however, greatly lacking. This report summarises the unique public health challenges faced by the GCC countries in the coming century, and outlines the need for greater investment in public health research and disease surveillance to better forecast the imminent epidemiological landscape. Significant data gaps currently exist regarding vector occurrence, spatial climate measures, and communicable disease case counts in the GCC - presenting an immediate research priority for the region. We outline policy work necessary to strengthen public health interventions, and to facilitate evidence-driven mitigation strategies. Such research will require a transdisciplinary approach, utilising existing cross-border public health initiatives, to ensure that such investigations are well-targeted and effectively communicated.}, }
@article {pmid36652646, year = {2023}, author = {Levy, JI and Bowleg, L}, title = {New Frameworks for Engaging Communities to Confront HIV, COVID-19, and Climate Change Health Inequities.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {113}, number = {2}, pages = {175-176}, pmid = {36652646}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {Humans ; *COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Health Inequities ; Health Status Disparities ; *HIV Infections/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid36652298, year = {2023}, author = {Meza, F and Darbyshire, R and Farrell, A and Lakso, A and Lawson, J and Meinke, H and Nelson, G and Stockle, C}, title = {Assessing temperature-based adaptation limits to climate change of temperate perennial fruit crops.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {9}, pages = {2557-2571}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16601}, pmid = {36652298}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {1210526//Fondecyt/ ; }, mesh = {Temperature ; *Fruit ; *Climate Change ; Plant Breeding ; Cold Temperature ; Crops, Agricultural ; }, abstract = {Temperate perennial fruit and nut trees play varying roles in world food diversity-providing edible oils and micronutrient, energy, and protein dense foods. In addition, perennials reuse significant amounts of biomass each year providing a unique resilience. But they also have a unique sensitivity to seasonal temperatures, requiring a period of dormancy for successful growing season production. This paper takes a global view of five temperate tree fruit crops-apples, cherries, almonds, olives, and grapes-and assesses the effects of future temperature changes on thermal suitability. It uses climate data from five earth system models for two CMIP6 climate scenarios and temperature-related indices of stress to indicate potential future areas where crops cannot be grown and highlight potential new suitable regions. The loss of currently suitable areas and new additions in new locations varies by scenario. In the southern hemisphere (SH), end-century (2081-2100) suitable areas under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario decline by more than 40% compared to a recent historical period (1991-2010). In the northern hemisphere (NH) suitability increases by 20% to almost 60%. With SSP1-2.6, however, the changes are much smaller with SH area declining by about 25% and NH increasing by about 10%. The results suggest substantial restructuring of global production for these crops. Essentially, climate change shifts temperature-suitable locations toward higher latitudes. In the SH, most of the historically suitable areas were already at the southern end of the landmass limiting opportunities for adaptation. If breeding efforts can bring chilling requirements for the major cultivars closer to that currently seen in some cultivars, suitable areas at the end of the century are greater, but higher summer temperatures offset the extent. The high value of fruit crops provides adaptation opportunities such as cultivar selection, canopy cooling using sprinklers, shade netting, and precision irrigation.}, }
@article {pmid36652233, year = {2023}, author = {Grunst, AS and Grunst, ML and Grémillet, D and Kato, A and Bustamante, P and Albert, C and Brisson-Curadeau, &#xc9; and Clairbaux, M and Cruz-Flores, M and Gentès, S and Perret, S and Ste-Marie, E and Wojczulanis-Jakubas, K and Fort, J}, title = {Mercury Contamination Challenges the Behavioral Response of a Keystone Species to Arctic Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {57}, number = {5}, pages = {2054-2063}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.2c08893}, pmid = {36652233}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Mercury/analysis ; Arctic Regions ; Birds ; *Charadriiformes ; Environmental Monitoring ; }, abstract = {Combined effects of multiple, climate change-associated stressors are of mounting concern, especially in Arctic ecosystems. Elevated mercury (Hg) exposure in Arctic animals could affect behavioral responses to changes in foraging landscapes caused by climate change, generating interactive effects on behavior and population resilience. We investigated this hypothesis in little auks (Alle alle), a keystone Arctic seabird. We compiled behavioral data for 44 birds across 5 years using accelerometers while also quantifying blood Hg and environmental conditions. Warm sea surface temperature (SST) and low sea ice coverage reshaped time activity budgets (TABs) and diving patterns, causing decreased resting, increased flight, and longer dives. Mercury contamination was not associated with TABs. However, highly contaminated birds lengthened interdive breaks when making long dives, suggesting Hg-induced physiological limitations. As dive durations increased with warm SST, subtle toxicological effects threaten to increasingly constrain diving and foraging efficiency as climate change progresses, with ecosystem-wide repercussions.}, }
@article {pmid36652002, year = {2023}, author = {Hájková, L and Možný, M and Oušková, V and Musilová, A and Vlach, V and Dížková, P and Bartošová, L and Žalud, Z}, title = {Common snowdrop as a climate change bioindicator in Czechia.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {67}, number = {3}, pages = {465-473}, pmid = {36652002}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {SustES-CZ.02.1.01 / 0.0 / 0.0 / 16_019 / 0000797//Ministerstvo &#x160;kolstv&#xed;, Ml&#xe1;de&#x17e;e a T&#x11b;lov&#xfd;chovy/ ; SS02030018 (DivLand)//Technology Agency of the Czech Republic/ ; SS02030040 (PERUN)//Technology Agency of the Czech Republic/ ; }, mesh = {Czech Republic ; Galanthus ; *Environmental Biomarkers ; Seasons ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; Flowers ; }, abstract = {The phenological response to climate change differs among species. We examined the beginning of flowering of the common snowdrop (Galanthus nivalis) in connection with meteorological variables in Czechia in the period 1923-2021. The long-term series were analyzed from phenological and meteorological stations of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI). Temporal and spatial evaluation (using Geographic Information System) in timing of beginning of flowering (BBCH 61) of G. nivalis was investigated under urban and rural settings. Furthermore, the detailed analysis of selected meteorological variables to onset of G. nivalis flowering was performed. Moreover, the trends (using Mann-Kendall test) and Pearson's correlation coefficients between phenological phase and meteorological variable were calculated. The main finding of this study was that the trend of the beginning of flowering of the common snowdrop during the studied period (1923-2021) is negative, and it varies in urban and rural environments. The results showed most significant acceleration of the beginning of flowering of G. nivalis by - 0.20 day year[-1] in urban area and by - 0.11 day year[-1] in rural area. Above that, a major turning point occurred between 1987 and 1988 (both, in phenological observations and meteorological variables), and the variability of the beginning of flowering is significantly higher in the second period 1988-2021. On top of, the study proved that the beginning of flowering of G. nivalis closely correlated with number of days with snow cover above 1 cm (December-March) at both types of stations (urban and rural), and with mean air temperature in February, maximum air temperature in January, and minimum air temperature in March. The Mann-Kendall test showed a reduction in the number of days with snow cover above 1 cm (December-March) during 99 years period at Klatovy station (a long-term time series) by - 0.06 day year[-1], i.e., by - 5.94 days per the whole period. Conversely, air temperatures increase (maximum and minimum air temperature by 0.03 °C year[-1] (2.97 °C per the whole period) and average air temperature by 0.02 °C year[-1] (1.98 °C per the whole period)). Thus, our results indicate significant changes in the beginning of flowering of G. nivalis in Czechia as a consequence of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36649426, year = {2023}, author = {Robbins Schug, G and Buikstra, JE and DeWitte, SN and Baker, BJ and Berger, E and Buzon, MR and Davies-Barrett, AM and Goldstein, L and Grauer, AL and Gregoricka, LA and Halcrow, SE and Knudson, KJ and Larsen, CS and Martin, DL and Nystrom, KC and Perry, MA and Roberts, CA and Santos, AL and Stojanowski, CM and Suby, JA and Temple, DH and Tung, TA and Vlok, M and Watson-Glen, T and Zakrzewski, SR}, title = {Climate change, human health, and resilience in the Holocene.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {4}, pages = {e2209472120}, pmid = {36649426}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Carcinoma, Renal Cell ; Sustainable Development ; Probability ; *Kidney Neoplasms ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an indisputable threat to human health, especially for societies already confronted with rising social inequality, political and economic uncertainty, and a cascade of concurrent environmental challenges. Archaeological data about past climate and environment provide an important source of evidence about the potential challenges humans face and the long-term outcomes of alternative short-term adaptive strategies. Evidence from well-dated archaeological human skeletons and mummified remains speaks directly to patterns of human health over time through changing circumstances. Here, we describe variation in human epidemiological patterns in the context of past rapid climate change (RCC) events and other periods of past environmental change. Case studies confirm that human communities responded to environmental changes in diverse ways depending on historical, sociocultural, and biological contingencies. Certain factors, such as social inequality and disproportionate access to resources in large, complex societies may influence the probability of major sociopolitical disruptions and reorganizations-commonly known as "collapse." This survey of Holocene human-environmental relations demonstrates how flexibility, variation, and maintenance of Indigenous knowledge can be mitigating factors in the face of environmental challenges. Although contemporary climate change is more rapid and of greater magnitude than the RCC events and other environmental changes we discuss here, these lessons from the past provide clarity about potential priorities for equitable, sustainable development and the constraints of modernity we must address.}, }
@article {pmid36649076, year = {2023}, author = {Woodruff, TJ and Charlesworth, A and Zlatnik, MG and Pandipati, S and DeNicola, N and Latif, I}, title = {Code OB: We need urgent action on climate change and toxic chemicals.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {363-365}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.14566}, pmid = {36649076}, issn = {1879-3479}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36648733, year = {2023}, author = {Shah, MI and Khan, Z and Moise, ML and Abbas, S}, title = {Correction to: Tourism adaptability amid the climate change and air pollution in BRICS: a method of moments quantile regression approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {22138}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-023-25364-3}, pmid = {36648733}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid36647584, year = {2023}, author = {Walinski, A and Sander, J and Gerlinger, G and Clemens, V and Meyer-Lindenberg, A and Heinz, A}, title = {The Effects of Climate Change on Mental Health.}, journal = {Deutsches Arzteblatt international}, volume = {120}, number = {8}, pages = {117-124}, pmid = {36647584}, issn = {1866-0452}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Climate Change ; *Mental Disorders/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: All over the world, climate change is exerting negative and complex effects on human living conditions and health. In this narrative review, we summarize the current global evidence regarding the effects of climate change on mental health.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic literature search concerning the direct effects of acute extreme weather events (floods, storms, fires) and chronic stresses (heat, drought) due to climate change, as well as the indirect effects of climate change (food insecurity, migration), on the diagnoses of mental disorders, psychological distress, and psychiatric emergency admissions was carried out in PubMed and PsychInfo, and supplemented by expert selection. 1017 studies were identified, and 128 were included.<br><br>RESULTS: The heterogeneity of study methods does not permit any overall estimate of effect strength. The available evidence shows that traumatic experiences due to extreme weather events increase the risk of affective and anxiety disorders, especially the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder. Heat significantly increases the morbidity and mortality attributable to mental illness, as well as the frequency of psychiatric emergencies. Persistent stressors such as drought, food insecurity, and migration owing to climate change can also be major risk factors for mental illness.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The consequences of climate change are stress factors for mental health. Therefore, as global warming progresses, an increasing incidence and prevalence of mental illness is to be expected. Vulnerable groups, such as the (already) mentally ill, children, and adolescents, need to be protected. At the same time, there is a need for further systematic research on the mechanisms of action and effects of climate change on mental function.}, }
@article {pmid36646454, year = {2023}, author = {Ortega Chamorro, LC and Cañón Barriga, JE}, title = {Urban risks due to climate change in the Andean municipality of Pasto, Colombia: A Bayesian network approach.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {43}, number = {10}, pages = {2017-2032}, doi = {10.1111/risa.14086}, pmid = {36646454}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Humans ; Cities ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Colombia ; *Water ; }, abstract = {The current trends of climate change will increase people's exposure to urban risks related to events such as landslides, floods, forest fires, food production, health, and water availability, which are stochastic and very localized in nature. This research uses a Bayesian network (BN) approach to analyze the intensity of such urban risks for the Andean municipality of Pasto, Colombia, under climate change scenarios. The stochastic BN model is linked to correlational models and local scenarios of representative concentration trajectories (RCP) to project the possible risks to which the municipality of Pasto will be exposed in the future. The results show significant risks in crop yields, food security, water availability and disaster risks, but no significant risks on the incidence of acute diarrheal diseases (ADD) and acute respiratory infections (ARI), whereas positive outcomes are likely to occur in livestock production, influenced by population growth. The advantage of the BN approach is the possibility of updating beliefs in the probabilities of occurrence of events, especially in developing, intermediate cities with information-limited contexts.}, }
@article {pmid36646218, year = {2023}, author = {Guo, L and Lin, W and Cao, C and Li, C}, title = {Integrated rice-crayfish farming system does not mitigate the global warming potential during rice season.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {867}, number = {}, pages = {161520}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161520}, pmid = {36646218}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; *Oryza ; Astacoidea ; Soil ; Seasons ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Agriculture/methods ; China ; }, abstract = {Integrated rice-crayfish farming system (RCS) has become increasingly popular in China. However, previous research has largely ignored the effect of trench around the paddy field on GHG emissions, which may cause inaccurate estimation of the global warming potential (GWP) from the system. This study compared the GWP between rice monoculture (RM) and RCS. The results indicated that the field of RCS had significantly lower CH4 emissions compared with RM due to lower mcrA abundance and higher pmoA abundance, while there was no difference in N2O emissions. In addition, the trench resulted in remarkably more CH4 emissions due to higher mcrA abundance and lower pmoA abundance and less N2O emissions than the field in RCS. In general, RCS seems not to mitigate GWP compared with RM due to more CH4 emissions from the trench in the current mode. Furthermore, our results indicate that RCS can reduce GWP relative to RM only when the area ratio of the trench to the system is controlled to be lower than 13.9 %.}, }
@article {pmid36645797, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ paediatrics open}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36645797}, issn = {2399-9772}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36645589, year = {2023}, author = {Ahmed, N and Padda, IUH and Khan, A and Otil, MD and Cismas, LM and Miculescu, A and Rehman, A}, title = {Climate change adaption strategies in urban communities: new evidence from Islamabad, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {14}, pages = {42108-42121}, pmid = {36645589}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; *Agriculture ; Pakistan ; *Climate Change ; Income ; Poverty ; }, abstract = {Pakistan is urbanizing at the fastest pace in South Asia, and if left unplanned, it will not only reduce adaptive capacity of its residents rather it will be a chaos for its residents. The aim of this study is to answer the question on how urbanites of Pakistan are coping with climate change and which part of the society required support to cope with changing climate? To answer this questions, this study conducted survey through a structured questionnaire, from the urban residents of Islamabad, to explore their coping mechanisms towards climate change. Survey collected information on demographic, social, economic, and physical aspects, using Hackman's Treatment effect model. The sample selection equation is conditional on the adaptations to climate change in the outcome equation. Main independent variables are income, age, education, and occupation. Selection equation is based on perceptions of individuals about climate change which contains dependent variables of changes in temperature of summers and winters, changes in rain fall pattern, fog, hailstorm, and information received from social media and peer groups. With the result of 57.55, the Wald test shows that overall, there exists goodness of fit at the 99 percent confidence level. The value of rho in the Heckman model is 0.40 which implies the Heckman model provides more consistent and more efficient estimates. The results are suggesting that increasing age enhances the likelihood of adaptations as the positive and significant coefficient of age implies that age has probability to adapt to climate change. The positive and significant coefficient of income, education, and occupation implies that urbanites have higher probability to adapt to climate change. Perception is the essential foundation of adaptation, and differences in perception can be transferred to the adapted strategies. Households that experience a greater variation in annual mean temperature are more likely to adopt any adaptation strategy to cope with climate change. Essentially, poverty encompasses the majority of the characteristics that reduce respondents' adaptation capacity and increase their susceptibility to climate change. The major contextual disparities were discovered across union councils in the form of financial, personal, social, physical, and natural capitals of families. Therefore, obligation is on government to offer greater support for individuals who are less affluent in terms of these assets. For this city, officials must offer subsidy schemes to less privileged and marginalized people of urban dwellers to enhance their adaptive capacity.}, }
@article {pmid36645233, year = {2023}, author = {Tedeschi, LO and Beauchemin, KA}, title = {Galyean appreciation club review: a holistic perspective of the societal relevance of beef production and its impacts on climate change.}, journal = {Journal of animal science}, volume = {101}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {36645233}, issn = {1525-3163}, support = {09123//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; }, mesh = {Cattle ; Humans ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Animal Husbandry/methods ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Environment ; Nutritional Status ; Methane/analysis ; Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {This article provides a science-based, data-driven perspective on the relevance of the beef herd in the U.S. to our society and greenhouse gas (GHG) contribution to climate change. Cattle operations are subject to criticism for their environmental burden, often based on incomplete information disseminated about their social, economic, nutritional, and ecological benefits and detriments. The 2019 data published by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reported that U.S. beef cattle emitted 22.6% of the total agricultural emissions, representing about 2.2% of the total anthropogenic emissions of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). Simulations from a computer model developed to address global energy and climate challenges, set to use extreme improvements in livestock and crop production systems, indicated a potential reduction in global CO2e emissions of 4.6% but without significant enhancement in the temperature change by 2030. There are many natural and anthropogenic sources of CH4 emissions. Contrary to the increased contribution of peatlands and water reservoirs to atmospheric CO2e, the steady decrease in the U.S. cattle population is estimated to have reduced its methane (CH4) emissions by about 30% from 1975 to 2021. This CH4 emission deacceleration of 2.46 Mt CO2e/yr2 might be even more significant than reported. Many opportunities exist to mitigate CH4 emissions of beef production, leading to a realistic prospect of a 5% to 15% reduction in the short term after considering the overlapping impacts of combined strategies. Reduction strategies include feeding synthetic chemicals that inactivate the methyl-coenzyme M reductase (the enzyme that catalyzes the last step of methanogenesis in the rumen), red seaweed or algae extracts, ionophore antibiotics, phytochemicals (e.g., condensed tannins and essential oils), and other nutritional manipulations. The proposed net-zero concept might not solve the global warming problem because it will only balance future anthropogenic GHG emissions with anthropogenic removals, leaving global warming on a standby state. Recommendations for consuming red meat products should consider human nutrition, health, and disease and remain independent of controversial evidence of causational relationships with perceived negative environmental impacts of beef production that are not based on scientific data.}, }
@article {pmid36644909, year = {2021}, author = {Naylor, RL}, title = {The Bryson synthesis: The forging of climate change narratives during the World Food Crisis.}, journal = {Science in context}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {375-391}, doi = {10.1017/S0269889722000266}, pmid = {36644909}, issn = {0269-8897}, abstract = {During the first half of the 1970s, climate research gained a new significance and began to be perceived within political and academic circles as being worthy of public support. Conventional explanations for this increased status include a series of climate anomalies that generated awareness and heightened concern over the potentially devastating effects of climate change. Controversial climatologist Reid Bryson was one of the first to publicly promote what he saw as a definitive link between these climate anomalies and unidirectional climate change in the fall of 1973, and rising food prices in the same year gave him a platform on which to air his views to receptive senior members of the US Congress. Bryson's testimony before a US Senate subcommittee offers a unique glimpse into how he was able to successfully resonate his agenda with that of senior politicians in a time of crisis, as well as the immediate responses of those senior US politicians upon first hearing climate change arguments. Bryson was one of the most prominent US climatologists to break a taboo against making bold climatological predictions and de-facto policy recommendations in public. As a result, although Bryson was criticized by many in the climatological community, his actions instigated the involvement of other scientists in the public arena, leading to an important elevation in US public climate discourse.}, }
@article {pmid36643289, year = {2023}, author = {Zummo, L}, title = {Climate Change and the Social World: Discourse Analysis of Students' Intuitive Understandings.}, journal = {Science &amp; education}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-20}, pmid = {36643289}, issn = {0926-7220}, abstract = {With the continued unfolding of major climatic shifts, questions continue to emerge about how to approach climate change in the science classroom, at least in the USA where it is often perceived as socio-politically controversial. Broadly, research in science education has shown that the learning process around climate change is highly complex and variable, and our understanding of it remains emergent. This study argues that when designing learning experiences for issues like climate change, we must consider students' prior knowledge of the social world. Using ideology as a theoretical lens, this study then examines discourse data of several classroom elicitation discussions in two sections of a 9th grade US classroom to clarify what intuitive understandings of the social world and assumptions students bring to their classroom learning about climate change. Moment-by-moment discourse analysis shows the emergence of assumptions of a sharply divided social world and the making material of an ideology that reflects these divisions. This study considers implications for such prior knowledge on scientific sensemaking and offers implications for science teaching and future research.}, }
@article {pmid36639925, year = {2023}, author = {Kam, S and Hwang, BJ and Parker, ER}, title = {The impact of climate change on atopic dermatitis and mental health comorbidities: a review of the literature and examination of intersectionality.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {62}, number = {4}, pages = {449-458}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.16557}, pmid = {36639925}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Humans ; *Dermatitis, Atopic/epidemiology/psychology ; Climate Change ; Mental Health ; Intersectional Framework ; Comorbidity ; }, abstract = {Climate change, fueled by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, is associated with rising temperatures, extreme weather events, increased aeroallergen production, and air pollution. Our understanding that many inflammatory cutaneous diseases carry important mental health comorbidities is expanding. Simultaneously, the detrimental impacts of climate change on human health are now widely recognized as a global public health crisis. Importantly, these climate-associated phenomena exacerbate the environmental triggers of atopic dermatitis (AD) and are also associated with amplification of comorbid mental health conditions in AD including depression, anxiety, trauma-related disorders, and psychotic spectrum disorders. This review is the first to examine the nexus of climate change, atopic dermatitis, and mental health comorbidities and emphasizes the disproportionate impacts of climate change in vulnerable and marginalized populations.}, }
@article {pmid36639376, year = {2023}, author = {Ma, L and Conradie, SR and Crawford, CL and Gardner, AS and Kearney, MR and Maclean, IMD and McKechnie, AE and Mi, CR and Senior, RA and Wilcove, DS}, title = {Global patterns of climate change impacts on desert bird communities.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {211}, pmid = {36639376}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Birds/physiology ; Biodiversity ; Temperature ; Ecosystem ; Desert Climate ; }, abstract = {The world's warm deserts are predicted to experience disproportionately large temperature increases due to climate change, yet the impacts on global desert biodiversity remain poorly understood. Because species in warm deserts live close to their physiological limits, additional warming may induce local extinctions. Here, we combine climate change projections with biophysical models and species distributions to predict physiological impacts of climate change on desert birds globally. Our results show heterogeneous impacts between and within warm deserts. Moreover, spatial patterns of physiological impacts do not simply mirror air temperature changes. Climate change refugia, defined as warm desert areas with high avian diversity and low predicted physiological impacts, are predicted to persist in varying extents in different desert realms. Only a small proportion (<20%) of refugia fall within existing protected areas. Our analysis highlights the need to increase protection of refugial areas within the world's warm deserts to protect species from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36638213, year = {2023}, author = {Guzman, J and Joohyun Oh, J and Sen, A}, title = {Climate change framing and innovator attention: Evidence from an email field experiment.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {120}, number = {3}, pages = {e2213627120}, pmid = {36638213}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Electronic Mail ; }, abstract = {Drawing the attention of innovators to climate change is important for green innovation. We report an email field experiment with MIT using messages about the impact of climate change to invite innovators (SBIR grantees) to apply to a technology competition. We vary our messages on the time frame and scale of the human cost of climate change across scientifically valid scenarios. Innovator attention (clicks) is sensitive to climate change messaging. These changes in clicks also predict higher application rates. The response varies by individual characteristics such as location-based exposure to climate change risks and whether innovators have climate-related innovations. Finally, using a structural model of innovator attention, we provide estimates of the implied discount rate of time and the elasticity of attention to lives at stake.}, }
@article {pmid36634777, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, M and Schwarz, C and Lin, W and Naing, H and Cai, H and Zhu, Z}, title = {A new perspective on the impacts of Spartina alterniflora invasion on Chinese wetlands in the context of climate change: A case study of the Jiuduansha Shoals, Yangtze Estuary.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {868}, number = {}, pages = {161477}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161477}, pmid = {36634777}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; *Estuaries ; *Introduced Species ; *Poaceae ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Spartina alterniflora, an invasive plant, was introduced to the Chinese coastal zone in the early 90s. As an eco-engineering species, S. alterniflora not only alters saltmarsh species distributions, previously described as habitat degradation, but it also plays a vital role in coastal protection, especially for the development of recently emerged intertidal shoals. To provide a reference for coastal management under global change, we quantified the impact of the invasion process on provided ecological and coastal protection functions, exemplified at the emerging Jiuduansha Shoals (JDS) in the Yangtze Estuary. Results obtained by high-precision satellite monitoring and numerical modelling showed that the establishment and growth of S. alterniflora can exert considerable changes on local environment. The invasion of S. alterniflora to JDS wetland can be divided into three distinct phases, (1) establishment 1998-2003, (2) expansion 2003-2009, and (3) dominant 2009-2018 stages according to the changes in saltmarsh composition. Spatially, S. alterniflora continuously replaced Scirpus mariqueter, forcing S. mariqueter and Phragmites australis slowly to the lower and higher intertidal habitats, respectively. Notably, S. alterniflora expansion was the main driver that contributed to over 70 % of recent JDS wetland expansion even under sediment deficit conditions. Established S. alterniflora marsh (directly) dampens more waves because of aboveground stems, but it also causes more accretion and indirectly leads to higher "morphological" wave dampening. Thus, it increases coastal defense provided by the saltmarsh in the context of sea-level rise and strengthening storms. In conclusion, the role of S. alterniflora invasion to the local environment under global changes is controversial. For sustainable coastal management, we need context-dependent S. alterniflora management to maximize the benefit of coastal protection and minimize the impact on local ecology, especially in sediment-starving estuaries with expected coastline retreat.}, }
@article {pmid36634558, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, L and Shen, C and Xue, SJ and Xu, C}, title = {From regular to irregular: Unveiling climate change imprints from vegetation patterns: Comment on "Impacts of climate change on vegetation pattern: Mathematical modelling and data analysis" by Sun et al.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {44}, number = {}, pages = {119-121}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2022.12.022}, pmid = {36634558}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Data Analysis ; China ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid36634176, year = {2023}, author = {Supran, G and Rahmstorf, S and Oreskes, N}, title = {Assessing ExxonMobil's global warming projections.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {379}, number = {6628}, pages = {eabk0063}, doi = {10.1126/science.abk0063}, pmid = {36634176}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Humans ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Forecasting ; *Fossil Fuels ; *Global Warming ; *Anthropogenic Effects ; }, abstract = {Climate projections by the fossil fuel industry have never been assessed. On the basis of company records, we quantitatively evaluated all available global warming projections documented by-and in many cases modeled by-Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp scientists between 1977 and 2003. We find that most of their projections accurately forecast warming that is consistent with subsequent observations. Their projections were also consistent with, and at least as skillful as, those of independent academic and government models. Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp also correctly rejected the prospect of a coming ice age, accurately predicted when human-caused global warming would first be detected, and reasonably estimated the "carbon budget" for holding warming below 2°C. On each of these points, however, the company's public statements about climate science contradicted its own scientific data.}, }
@article {pmid36633633, year = {2023}, author = {Niebel, D and Hofmann, SC and Saha, S}, title = {[Development of strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation is an urgent task for dermatology].}, journal = {Dermatologie (Heidelberg, Germany)}, volume = {74}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, pmid = {36633633}, issn = {2731-7013}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Dermatology ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Acclimatization ; }, }
@article {pmid36631297, year = {2023}, author = {Cook, C and Magan, N and Robinson-Boyer, L and Xu, X}, title = {Effect on microbial communities in apple orchard soil when exposed short-term to climate change abiotic factors and different orchard management practices.}, journal = {Journal of applied microbiology}, volume = {134}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jambio/lxad002}, pmid = {36631297}, issn = {1365-2672}, support = {//NIAB/ ; //Cranfield University/ ; /BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Soil ; *Malus/microbiology ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; *Microbiota ; }, abstract = {AIM: We assessed the effect of exposing apple orchard soil to different temperatures and CO2 levels on the resident microbiome of soils from a conventionally managed and an organically managed apple orchard. The key difference between these two orchards was that synthetic fertilizers and pesticides are routinely used in the former one.<br><br>METHODS AND RESULTS: To investigate the effect of CO2 and temperature, soil samples from each site at two depths were exposed to either elevated temperature (29&#xb0;C) at either 5000 or 10 000&#xa0;ppm for five weeks or control conditions (25&#xb0;C + 400&#xa0;ppm). Both bacterial and fungal communities were profiled with amplicon-sequencing. The differences between the two orchards were the most significant factor affecting the bacterial and fungal communities, contributing to 53.7-14.0% of the variance in Bray-Curtis &#x3b2; diversity, respectively. Elevated CO2 concentration and increased temperature affected organic orchard microbial diversity more than the conventionally managed orchard. A number of candidate beneficial and pathogenic microorganisms had differential abundances when temperature and CO2 were elevated, but their effect on the plant is unclear.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study has highlighted that microbial communities in bulk soils are most significantly influenced by crop management practices compared to the climate conditions used in the study. The studied climate conditions had a more limited effect on microbial community diversity in conventionally managed soil samples than in organically managed soils.}, }
@article {pmid36630170, year = {2023}, author = {Diallo, T and Bérubé, A and Roberge, M and Audate, PP and Larente-Marcotte, S and Jobin, &#xc9; and Moubarak, N and Guillaumie, L and Dupéré, S and Guichard, A and Goupil-Sormany, I}, title = {Nurses' Perceptions of Climate Change: Protocol for a Scoping Review.}, journal = {JMIR research protocols}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {e42516}, pmid = {36630170}, issn = {1929-0748}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a major threat to human health. Nurses are in contact with patients suffering from the effects of climate change in their daily work. Therefore, they need to be involved in combating it at both the individual and collective levels. However, there is still very little known about nurses' perception of climate change and their role toward it. A few recent studies have embarked on the process of examining the perceptions of these health professionals relative to climate change, but no exploratory review of the literature has been conducted on nurses' perception of this phenomenon.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this protocol is to develop a research strategy for an exploratory review of the literature focused on identifying nurses' perceptions of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Firstly, with the help of a specialized librarian, we defined keywords and their combinations, using an iterative process, to develop a documentary search strategy. This strategy was tested in the following four bibliographic databases: MEDLINE (PubMed), CINAHL, Embase, and Web of Science. A search of the grey literature will also be conducted to supplement the results of the bibliographic database search. The next step will be for 2 members of the research team to carry out a 2-stage selection process using the web-based systematic review software Covidence. They will carry out this selection process independently, with the aim of identifying relevant studies that meet the inclusion criteria for our exploratory review. Finally, data on year of publication, authors, geographic area, article type, study objectives, methodology, and key findings will be extracted from selected articles for analysis. The data will be analyzed by the research team based on an in-depth examination of the findings and will be directed toward answering the research question and fulfilling the study's objective.<br><br>RESULTS: The results will help in defining nurses' perceptions of climate change more clearly as well as the role they can play and what they need to be able to bring forward solutions to this phenomenon. The findings should also serve to guide the health sector and nursing faculty's interventions aimed at preparing health professionals to act on the potential threats associated with climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The preliminary search suggests a possible gap between the importance of the nursing role in addressing the health impacts of climate change and the nurses' lack of knowledge and awareness on this matter. The results will allow for raising nurses' awareness of their role in the fight against climate change and the ways to address its health effects. This study will also open up new research perspectives on how to equip nurses to better integrate response to climate change issues into their professional practice.<br><br>DERR1-10.2196/42516.}, }
@article {pmid36628376, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {Alpha psychiatry}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {266-267}, pmid = {36628376}, issn = {2757-8038}, }
@article {pmid36626991, year = {2023}, author = {Le Hen, G and Balzani, P and Haase, P and Kouba, A and Liu, C and Nagelkerke, LAJ and Theissen, N and Renault, D and Soto, I and Haubrock, PJ}, title = {Alien species and climate change drive shifts in a riverine fish community and trait compositions over 35 years.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {867}, number = {}, pages = {161486}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161486}, pmid = {36626991}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Introduced Species ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Rivers ; Germany ; Fishes ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Alien fish substantially impact aquatic communities. However, their effects on trait composition remain poorly understood, especially at large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used long-term biomonitoring data (1984-2018) from 31 fish communities of the Rhine river in Germany to investigate compositional and functional changes over time. Average total community richness increased by 49 %: it was stable until 2004, then declined until 2010, before increasing until 2018. Average abundance decreased by 9 %. Starting from 198 individuals/m[2] in 1984 abundance largely declined to 23 individuals/m[2] in 2010 (-88 %), and then consequently increased by 678 % up to 180 individuals/m[2] until 2018. Increases in abundance and richness starting around 2010 were mainly driven by the establishment of alien species: while alien species represented 5 % of all species and 0.1 % of total individuals in 1993, it increased to 30 % (7 species) and 32 % of individuals in 2018. Concomitant to the increase in alien species, average native species richness and abundance declined by 26 % and 50 % respectively. We identified increases in temperature, precipitation, abundance and richness of alien fish driving compositional changes after 2010. To get more insights on the impacts of alien species on fish communities, we used 12 biological and 13 ecological traits to compute four trait metrics each. Ecological trait dispersion increased before 2010, probably due to diminishing ecologically similar native species. No changes in trait metrics were measured after 2010, albeit relative shares of expressed trait modalities significantly changing. The observed shift in trait modalities suggested the introduction of new species carrying similar and novel trait modalities. Our results revealed significant changes in taxonomic and trait compositions following alien fish introductions and climatic change. To conclude, our analyses show taxonomic and functional changes in the Rhine river over 35 years, likely indicative of future changes in ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid36626136, year = {2023}, author = {Yuan, S and Shi, Y and Zhou, BF and Liang, YY and Chen, XY and An, QQ and Fan, YR and Shen, Z and Ingvarsson, PK and Wang, B}, title = {Genomic vulnerability to climate change in Quercus acutissima, a dominant tree species in East Asian deciduous forests.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {7}, pages = {1639-1655}, doi = {10.1111/mec.16843}, pmid = {36626136}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {31971673//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2018B030306040//Guangdong Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholar/ ; 202102021034//Science and Technology Projects in Guangzhou/ ; 32161123003//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forests ; Genome-Wide Association Study ; Genomics ; *Quercus/genetics ; *Trees/genetics ; }, abstract = {Understanding the evolutionary processes that shape the landscape of genetic variation and influence the response of species to future climate change is critical for biodiversity conservation. Here, we sampled 27 populations across the distribution range of a dominant forest tree, Quercus acutissima, in East Asia, and applied genome-wide analyses to track the evolutionary history and predict the fate of populations under future climate. We found two genetic groups (East and West) in Q. acutissima that diverged during Pliocene. We also found a heterogeneous landscape of genomic variation in this species, which may have been shaped by population demography and linked selections. Using genotype-environment association analyses, we identified climate-associated SNPs in a diverse set of genes and functional categories, indicating a model of polygenic adaptation in Q. acutissima. We further estimated three genetic offset metrics to quantify genomic vulnerability of this species to climate change due to the complex interplay between local adaptation and migration. We found that marginal populations are under higher risk of local extinction because of future climate change, and may not be able to track suitable habitats to maintain the gene-environment relationships observed under the current climate. We also detected higher reverse genetic offsets in northern China, indicating that genetic variation currently present in the whole range of Q. acutissima may not adapt to future climate conditions in this area. Overall, this study illustrates how evolutionary processes have shaped the landscape of genomic variation, and provides a comprehensive genome-wide view of climate maladaptation in Q. acutissima.}, }
@article {pmid36625463, year = {2023}, author = {Lokmic-Tomkins, Z and Borda, A and Humphrey, K}, title = {Designing digital health applications for climate change mitigation and adaptation.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {218}, number = {3}, pages = {106-110}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.51826}, pmid = {36625463}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36623928, year = {2023}, author = {Salvador, C and Nieto, R and Vicente-Serrano, SM and García-Herrera, R and Gimeno, L and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM}, title = {Public Health Implications of Drought in a Climate Change Context: A Critical Review.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {44}, number = {}, pages = {213-232}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-071421-051636}, pmid = {36623928}, issn = {1545-2093}, mesh = {Humans ; *Public Health ; *Droughts ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Extreme weather events are expected to increase due to climate change, which could pose an additional burden of morbidity and mortality. In recent decades, drought severity has increased in several regions around the world, affecting health by increasing the risk of water-, food-, and vector-borne diseases, malnutrition, cardiovascular and respiratory illness, mental health disorders, and mortality. Drought frequency and severity are expected to worsen across large regions as a result of a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature and atmospheric evaporative demand, posing a pressing challenge for public health. Variation in impacts among countries and communities is due to multiple factors, such as aging, socioeconomic status, access to health care, and gender, affecting population resilience. Integrative proactive action plans focused on risk management are required, and resources should be transferred to developing countries to reduce their vulnerability and risk.}, }
@article {pmid36622620, year = {2023}, author = {Saad-Hussein, A and Helmy, MA and Ellaithy, LS and Wheida, A and Nazer, ME and Alfaro, SC and Siour, G and Borbon, A and Wahab, MMA and Mostafa, AN}, title = {Correction to: Temporal trend of diarrhea morbidity rate with climate change: Egypt as a case study.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {22143}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-023-25225-z}, pmid = {36622620}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid36622605, year = {2023}, author = {Ali, S and Basit, A and Makanda, TA and Inamullah,  and Khan, FU and Sajid, M and Riaz, T and Abbasi, HF and Manzoor,  and Sohail, A}, title = {Improving drought mitigation strategies and disaster risk reduction through MODIS and TRMM-based data in relation to climate change over Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {14}, pages = {40563-40575}, pmid = {36622605}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2018M642614//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funding/ ; ZR2020QF281//Shandong Natural Science Youth Project/ ; }, mesh = {*Satellite Imagery ; *Droughts ; Climate Change ; Pakistan ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Drought is an extreme climatic event that mostly occurs as a result of low rainfall, which leads to lack of water in various agro-ecological conditions of Pakistan. The condition could be further exacerbated by the prevailing dry weather. Therefore, accurate, timely, and efficient drought monitoring is crucial to ensure that its adverse effects are mitigated. In this study, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and TRMM-based data were used together with remote sensing techniques to improve drought mitigation and disaster risk reduction strategies. In order to monitor drought mitigation and disaster risk reduction strategies in Pakistan, the crop water stress index (CWSI), vegetation condition index (VCI), normalized vegetation supply water index (NVSWI), vegetation health index (VHI), and temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) were chosen as the instrument. Due to low rainfall and significantly low vegetation, CWSI, NDVI, TVDI, and VHI are useful in characterizing drought mitigation strategies in Pakistan. Monthly NDVI, NAP, NVSWI, TVDI, VCI, and VHI values and heat map analysis show that Pakistan suffered from drought in years 2001, 2002, and 2006. Seasonal CWSI, NDVI, VHI, and TVDI confirmed that Pakistan was affected by severe drought in 2001, which continued and led to severe drought in 2002 and 2006. We generate spatial correlation coefficients between NDVI and NVSWI, VCI, and VHI, and NVSWI and VCI and VHI, while the VCI and VHI values are significantly positively correlated. CWSI, NDVI, VHI, and TVDI show positive signs of effective climate change drought mitigation and disaster risk reduction strategies in Pakistan. Thus, these drought indices have been confirmed to be a complete drought monitoring indicator and reduce the risk of drought in Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid36622601, year = {2023}, author = {Xu, Z}, title = {Water-climate change extended nexus contribution to social welfare and environment-related sustainable development goals in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {14}, pages = {40654-40669}, pmid = {36622601}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Sustainable Development ; *Climate Change ; Water ; China ; Social Welfare ; }, abstract = {Climate change exacerbates uncertainties in water resource management, water supply, and treatment that are energy intensive and then exert great pressure on climate change mitigation; hence, interrelated and contradictory characteristics within the water-climate change (WC) nexus system are needed to be studied. The nexus thinking and coordination of WC would impact many realistic practices and assist in sustainable socioeconomic development since traditional single-target policies have sometimes been out of function. Hence, the ability to direct water production and use as well as climate change mitigation has become a hotspot recently. Furthermore, we find that there has been no complete research on reviewing the impacts of the WC nexus in different areas on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Hence, this paper builds a core nexus of WC and then analyzes those effects on social and environmental aspects in many areas, including sewage treatment, energy transition, waste treatment, land management, and ocean management. This paper discusses how WC interlinkages are utilized to realize SDGs in those areas. Moreover, uncertainties derived from exogenous hydrology, climate change, and anthropogenic endogenous systems for realistic problems appeal to gradually increasing concern. Finally, implications offer valuable guidelines for integrated management of water and carbon emissions, as well as sustainable socioeconomic development in the future.}, }
@article {pmid36621311, year = {2023}, author = {Yang, S and Tan, ML and Song, Q and He, J and Yao, N and Li, X and Yang, X}, title = {Coupling SWAT and Bi-LSTM for improving daily-scale hydro-climatic simulation and climate change impact assessment in a tropical river basin.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {330}, number = {}, pages = {117244}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117244}, pmid = {36621311}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Soil ; *Climate Change ; Rivers ; Water ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Global climate change has led to an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme events around the world, the risk of which is especially imminent in tropical regions. Developing hydrological models with better capabilities to simulate streamflow, especially peak flow, is urgently needed to facilitate water resource planning and management as well as climate change mitigation efforts in the tropics. In view of the need, this paper explores the feasibility of improving streamflow simulation performance in the tropical Kelantan River Basin (KRB) of Peninsular Malaysia through coupling a conceptual process-based hydrological model - Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a deep learning model - Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) in two ways. All SWAT parameters were set as their default values in one hybrid model (SWAT-D-LSTM), whereas three most sensitive SWAT parameters were calibrated in the other hybrid model (SWAT-T-LSTM). Comparison of daily streamflow simulation results have shown that SWAT-T-LSTM consistently performs better than SWAT-D-LSTM as well as the stand-alone SWAT and Bi-LSTM model throughout the simulation period. Particularly, SWAT-T-LSTM performs considerably better than the other three models in simulating daily peak flow. Based on the latest projection results of five GCMs from the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under three emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), the best-performed SWAT-T-LSTM was run to assess the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in the KRB. Ensemble assessment results have concluded that both average and extreme streamflow is much likely to increase considerably in the already wet northeast monsoon season from November to January, which has surely raised the alarm for more frequent flood occurrence in the KRB.}, }
@article {pmid36621303, year = {2023}, author = {Manríquez, PH and González, CP and Jara, ME and Watson, SA and Torres, R and Domenici, P and Duarte, C}, title = {Combined effects of climate change stressors and predators with contrasting feeding-digestion strategies on a mussel species.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {187}, number = {}, pages = {114554}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.114554}, pmid = {36621303}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Bivalvia ; Food Chain ; Seafood ; Digestion ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {We investigated the combined effects of Ocean Warming (OW), Acidification (OA) and predator cues (Non-Consumptive Effects; NCEs) of two predators with contrasting feeding-digestion strategies on the mussel Perumytilus purpuratus. We considered starfish-NCEs (partially external digestion) and snail-NCEs (internal digestion). Mussels were exposed for 13 weeks to cross-factored OA (~500 and ~1400 μatm, pCO2) and OW (~15 and ~20 °C) conditions, in the presence/absence of NCEs from one or both predators. Mussels exposed to both NCEs exhibited smaller length and buoyant weight growth than those under control or snail-NCEs conditions. Mussels exposed to starfish-NCEs exhibited smaller wet mass than control mussels. OW and starfish-NCEs in isolation or combined with snail-NCEs increased mussel oxygen consumption. Byssal biogenesis was affected by the three-factors interaction. Clearance rates were affected by the OW × OA interaction. We suggest that mainly starfish-NCEs, in isolation or interacting with OA or/and OW, can threat mussel traits and the associated community.}, }
@article {pmid36621275, year = {2023}, author = {Gogien, F and Dechesne, M and Martinerie, R and Lipeme Kouyi, G}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on Combined Sewer Overflows based on small time step future rainfall timeseries and long-term continuous sewer network modelling.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {230}, number = {}, pages = {119504}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2022.119504}, pmid = {36621275}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Water Cycle ; Water ; Water Movements ; Time Factors ; Rain ; Sewage ; }, abstract = {The evolution of the climate in the future will probably lead to an increase in extreme rainfall events, particularly in the Mediterranean regions. This change in rainfall patterns will have impacts on combined sewer systems operation with a possible increase of spilled flows, leading to an increase of untreated water volumes released to the receiving water. Due to the impact of overflows on the water cycle, local authorities managing combined sewer systems are wondering about the extent of these changes and the possibility of taking it into account in stormwater management structure design. To do this, rainfall data with a fine time step are required to better master the shape of the hyetographs that are crucial to get a relevant rainfall/runoff relationship in an urban environment. However, there are currently no simulations of future rainfall series available at a time step compatible with the needs in urban drainage field. In this work, future rainfall time series with a fine time step are elaborated with the aim to be used in urban hydrology. The proposed approach is based on simulations results from five regional climate models in the framework of the Euro-Cordex program. It consists in a spatial downscaling step followed by a temporal disaggregation. The rainfall time series obtained are then used as input for a calibrated and validated hydrological model to investigate the evolution of annual CSO volumes and frequencies by 2100. The results show an increase of annual spilled volumes between 13% and 52% according to the considered climate model. This increase will most likely be a problem regarding compliance of sewer networks in line with the water framework directive, particularly the current French regulations. No clear trends were observed on the CSO frequencies. If there is a consensus for all the carried-out simulations to conclude that the CSO volumes will increase, we must remember that actual regional climate models suffer from limited spatial and temporal resolution and don't explicitly solve convection processes. Due to this point uncertainty concerning the evolution rate remains important particularly for intense rainfall episodes. New generations of climate models are needed to accurately predict intense episodes.}, }
@article {pmid36620746, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, Z and Zhao, X and Wang, J and Song, N and Han, Q}, title = {Agricultural water allocation with climate change based on gray wolf optimization in a semi-arid region of China.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e14577}, pmid = {36620746}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {*Water ; *Climate Change ; Agriculture ; Agricultural Irrigation ; China ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: We quantified and evaluated the allocation of soil and water resources in the Aksu River Basin to measure the consequences of climate change on an agricultural irrigation system.<br><br>METHODS: We first simulated future climate scenarios in the Aksu River Basin by using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). We then formulated the optimal allocation scheme of agricultural water as a multiobjective optimization problem and obtained the Pareto optimal solution using the multi-objective grey wolf optimizer (MOGWO). Finally, optimal allocations of water and land resources in the basin at different times were obtained using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP).<br><br>RESULTS: (1) The SDSM is able to simulate future climate change scenarios in the Aksu River Basin. Evapotranspiration (ET0) will increase significantly with variation as will the amount of available water albeit slightly. (2) To alleviate water pressure, the area of cropland should be reduced by 127.5 km[2] under RCP4.5 and 377.2 km[2] under RCP8.5 scenarios. (3) To be sustainable, the allocation ratio of forest land and water body should increase to 39% of the total water resource in the Aksu River Basin by 2050.}, }
@article {pmid36619610, year = {2023}, author = {Rendana, M and Idris, WMR and Rahim, SA and Rahman, ZA and Lihan, T}, title = {Predicting soil erosion potential under CMIP6 climate change scenarios in the Chini Lake Basin, Malaysia.}, journal = {Geoscience letters}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, pmid = {36619610}, issn = {2196-4092}, abstract = {Climate change and soil erosion are very associated with environmental defiance which affects the life sustainability of humans. However, the potency effects of both events in tropical regions are arduous to be estimated due to atmospheric conditions and unsustainable land use management. Therefore, several models can be used to predict the impacts of distinct climate scenarios on human and environmental relationships. In this study, we aimed to predict current and future soil erosion potential in the Chini Lake Basin, Malaysia under different Climate Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) scenarios (e.g., SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5). Our results found the predicted mean soil erosion values for the baseline scenario (2019-2021) was around 50.42 t/ha year. The mining areas recorded the highest soil erosion values located in the southeastern part. The high future soil erosion values (36.15 t/ha year) were obtained for SSP4.5 during 2060-2080. Whilst, the lowest values (33.30 t/ha year) were obtained for SSP2.6 during 2040-2060. According to CMIP6, the future soil erosion potential in the study area would reduce by approximately 33.9% compared to the baseline year (2019-2021). The rainfall erosivity factor majorly affected soil erosion potential in the study area. The output of the study will contribute to achieving the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.}, }
@article {pmid36619335, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ nutrition, prevention &amp; health}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {367-369}, pmid = {36619335}, issn = {2516-5542}, }
@article {pmid36618885, year = {2023}, author = {Momsen, K and Ohndorf, M}, title = {Expressive voting versus information avoidance: experimental evidence in the context of climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Public choice}, volume = {194}, number = {1-2}, pages = {45-74}, pmid = {36618885}, issn = {0048-5829}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: We theoretically and experimentally investigate the effect of self-serving information avoidance on moral bias in democratic and individual decisions in the context of climate change mitigation. Subjects choose between two allocations that differ in payoffs and contributions to climate change mitigation. We vary the observability of the environmental contribution, as well as the decision context associated with different levels of pivotality. If the contribution is directly observable, we find evidence for lower pivotality leading to higher levels of "green" decisions, as predicted by the low-cost theory of voting. This effect disappears if subjects can avoid information on the contribution. Instead, we find evidence for the exploitation of moral wiggle room via information avoidance in larger democracies as well as in the consumption context. Our results indicate that information avoidance substitutes expressive voting as an instrument to manage cognitive dissonance on the part of the voter. Hence, moral biases in elections might be less likely than previously thought.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version of this article (10.1007/s11127-022-01016-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.}, }
@article {pmid36618643, year = {2022}, author = {Cortés-Molino, &#xc1; and Linares, JC and Viñegla, B and Lechuga, V and Salvo-Tierra, AE and Flores-Moya, A and Fernández-Luque, I and Carreira, JA}, title = {Unexpected resilience in relict Abies pinsapo Boiss forests to dieback and mortality induced by climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {991720}, pmid = {36618643}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Acute and early symptoms of forest dieback linked to climate warming and drought episodes have been reported for relict Abies pinsapo Boiss. fir forests from Southern Spain, particularly at their lower ecotone. Satellite, orthoimages, and field data were used to assess forest decline, tree mortality, and gap formation and recolonization in the lower half of the altitudinal range of A. pinsapo forests (850-1550 m) for the last 36 years (1985-2020). Field surveys were carried out in 2003 and in 2020 to characterize changes in stand canopy structure and mortality rates across the altitudinal range. Time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the end of the dry season (derived from Landsat 5 and 7 imagery) were used for a Dynamic Factor Analysis to detect common trends across altitudinal bands and topographic solar incidence gradients (SI). Historical canopy cover changes were analyzed through aerial orthoimages classification. Here we show that extensive decline and mortality contrast to the almost steady alive basal area for 17 years, as well as the rising photosynthetic activity derived from NDVI since the mid-2000s and an increase in the forest canopy cover in the late years at mid and high altitudes. We hypothesized that these results suggest an unexpected resilience in A. pinsapo forests to climate change-induced dieback, that might be promoted by compensation mechanisms such as (i) recruitment of new A. pinsapo individuals; (ii) facilitative effects on such recruitment mediated by revegetation with other species; and (iii) a 'release effect' in which surviving trees can thrive with fewer resource competition. Future research is needed to understand these compensation mechanisms and their scope in future climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid36618637, year = {2022}, author = {Rogiers, SY and Greer, DH and Liu, Y and Baby, T and Xiao, Z}, title = {Impact of climate change on grape berry ripening: An assessment of adaptation strategies for the Australian vineyard.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1094633}, pmid = {36618637}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Compressed vintages, high alcohol and low wine acidity are but a few repercussions of climate change effects on Australian viticulture. While warm and cool growing regions may have different practical concerns related to climate change, they both experience altered berry and must composition and potentially reduced desirable wine characteristics and market value. Storms, drought and uncertain water supplies combined with excessive heat not only depress vine productivity through altered physiology but can have direct consequences on the fruit. Sunburn, shrivelling and altered sugar-flavour-aroma balance are becoming more prevalent while bushfires can result in smoke taint. Moreover, distorted pest and disease cycles and changes in pathogen geographical distribution have altered biotic stress dynamics that require novel management strategies. A multipronged approach to address these challenges may include alternative cultivars and rootstocks or changing geographic location. In addition, modifying and incorporating novel irrigation regimes, vine architecture and canopy manipulation, vineyard floor management, soil amendments and foliar products such as antitranspirants and other film-forming barriers are potential levers that can be used to manage the effects of climate change. The adoption of technology into the vineyard including weather, plant and soil sensors are giving viticulturists extra tools to make quick decisions, while satellite and airborne remote sensing allow the adoption of precision farming. A coherent and comprehensive approach to climate risk management, with consideration of the environment, ensures that optimum production and exceptional fruit quality is maintained. We review the preliminary findings and feasibility of these new strategies in the Australian context.}, }
@article {pmid36618235, year = {2022}, author = {Bhaumik, S and Beri, D and Jagnoor, J}, title = {The impact of climate change on the burden of snakebite: Evidence synthesis and implications for primary healthcare.}, journal = {Journal of family medicine and primary care}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {6147-6158}, pmid = {36618235}, issn = {2249-4863}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Snakebite is a public health problem in rural areas of South Asia, Africa and South America presenting mostly in primary care. Climate change and associated extreme weather events are expected to modify the snake-human-environment interface leading to a change in the burden of snakebite. Understanding this change is essential to ensure the preparedness of primary care and public health systems.<br><br>METHODS: We searched five electronic databases and supplemented them with other methods to identify eight studies on the effect of climate change on the burden of snakebite. We summarised the results thematically.<br><br>RESULTS: Available evidence is limited but estimates a geographic shift in risk of snakebite: northwards in North America and southwards in South America and in Mozambique. One study from Sri Lanka estimated a 31.3% increase in the incidence of snakebite. Based on limited evidence, the incidence of snakebite was not associated with tropical storms/hurricanes and droughts in the United States but associated with heatwaves in Israel.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The impact of climate change and associated extreme weather events and anthropogenic changes on mortality, morbidity and socioeconomic burden of snakebite. Transdisciplinary approaches can help understand these complex phenomena better. There is almost no evidence available in high-burden nations of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Community-based approaches for biodiversity and prevention, the institution of longitudinal studies, together with improving the resilience of primary care and public health systems are required to mitigate the impact of climate change on snakebite.}, }
@article {pmid36618101, year = {2023}, author = {Sosa, JE and Malheiro, C and Castro, PJ and Ribeiro, RPPL and Piñeiro, MM and Plantier, F and Mota, JPB and Araújo, JMM and Pereiro, AB}, title = {Exploring the Potential of Metal-Organic Frameworks for the Separation of Blends of Fluorinated Gases with High Global Warming Potential.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {2200107}, pmid = {36618101}, issn = {2056-6646}, abstract = {The research on porous materials for the selective capture of fluorinated gases (F-gases) is key to reduce their emissions. Here, the adsorption of difluoromethane (R-32), pentafluoroethane (R-125), and 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane (R-134a) is studied in four metal-organic frameworks (MOFs: Cu-benzene-1,3,5-tricarboxylate, zeolitic imidazolate framework-8, MOF-177, and MIL-53(Al)) and in one zeolite (ZSM-5) with the aim to develop technologies for the efficient capture and separation of high global warming potential blends containing these gases. Single-component sorption equilibria of the pure gases are measured at three temperatures (283.15, 303.15, and 323.15 K) by gravimetry and correlated using the Tóth and Virial adsorption models, and selectivities toward R-410A and R-407F are determined by ideal adsorption solution theory. While at lower pressures, R-125 and R-134a are preferentially adsorbed in all materials, at higher pressures there is no selectivity, or it is shifted toward the adsorption R-32. Furthermore, at high pressures, MOF-177 shows the highest adsorption capacity for the three F-gases. The results presented here show that the utilization of MOFs, as tailored made materials, is promising for the development of new approaches for the selective capture of F-gases and for the separation of blends of these gases, which are used in commercial refrigeration.}, }
@article {pmid36617490, year = {2023}, author = {Martin, C}, title = {Biospheric values as predictor of climate change risk perception: A multinational investigation.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {43}, number = {9}, pages = {1855-1870}, doi = {10.1111/risa.14083}, pmid = {36617490}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Perception ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the big challenges of our time. A better understanding of how individuals form their evaluation of the risk related to climate change seems to be key to win broad support for climate change mitigation efforts. Extant research indicates that biospheric values (BV) are an important antecedent of individuals' perception of the risk and consequences related to climate change. However, risk perception scholars have only recently started to study how BV relate to individuals' climate change risk perception (CCRP) and much is still to be learned about this relationship. The present study contributes to this growing literature by studying the BV-CCRP relationship in a multinational context. The results suggest that the BV - CCRP relationship varies in strength between different countries. These differences can be explained in part by societies' cultural leanings (i.e., individualism vs. collectivism) and societies' wealth. The present research adds to our understanding of why individuals in different countries perceive climate change related risk differently and how this perception is shaped differently by biospheric values in different countries. In this way, the findings help to build a more nuanced theory of how CCRP are formed. The presented results also have implications for policymakers and NGOs who wish to increase individuals' engagement with climate change and its consequences in different populations. In particular, the findings suggests that it might be necessary to use different strategies in different societies to achieve a greater awareness of climate change related risks.}, }
@article {pmid36617439, year = {2023}, author = {Casal, JJ and Fankhauser, C}, title = {Shade avoidance in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Plant physiology}, volume = {191}, number = {3}, pages = {1475-1491}, pmid = {36617439}, issn = {1532-2548}, support = {310030_200318/SNSF_/Swiss National Science Foundation/Switzerland ; }, mesh = {*Arabidopsis Proteins/genetics/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Light ; *Arabidopsis/metabolism ; Phytochrome B/genetics/metabolism ; *Phytochrome/metabolism ; Transcription Factors/metabolism ; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; DNA-Binding Proteins/metabolism ; }, abstract = {When exposed to changes in the light environment caused by neighboring vegetation, shade-avoiding plants modify their growth and/or developmental patterns to access more sunlight. In Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana), neighbor cues reduce the activity of the photosensory receptors phytochrome B (phyB) and cryptochrome 1, releasing photoreceptor repression imposed on PHYTOCHROME INTERACTING FACTORs (PIFs) and leading to transcriptional reprogramming. The phyB-PIF hub is at the core of all shade-avoidance responses, whilst other photosensory receptors and transcription factors contribute in a context-specific manner. CONSTITUTIVELY PHOTOMORPHOGENIC1 is a master regulator of this hub, indirectly stabilizing PIFs and targeting negative regulators of shade avoidance for degradation. Warm temperatures reduce the activity of phyB, which operates as a temperature sensor and further increases the activities of PIF4 and PIF7 by independent temperature sensing mechanisms. The signaling network controlling shade avoidance is not buffered against climate change; rather, it integrates information about shade, temperature, salinity, drought, and likely flooding. We, therefore, predict that climate change will exacerbate shade-induced growth responses in some regions of the planet while limiting the growth potential in others.}, }
@article {pmid36616851, year = {2022}, author = {Kaewunruen, S and AbdelHadi, M and Kongpuang, M and Pansuk, W and Remennikov, AM}, title = {Digital Twins for Managing Railway Bridge Maintenance, Resilience, and Climate Change Adaptation.}, journal = {Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36616851}, issn = {1424-8220}, support = {691135//European Commission/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Acclimatization ; Engineering ; Technology ; Australia ; }, abstract = {Innovative digital twins (DTs) that allow engineers to visualise, share information, and monitor the condition during operation is necessary to optimise railway construction and maintenance. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is an approach for creating and managing an inventive 3D model simulating digital information that is useful to project management, monitoring and operation of a specific asset during the whole life cycle assessment (LCA). BIM application can help to provide an efficient cost management and time schedule and reduce the project delivery time throughout the whole life cycle of the project. In this study, an innovative DT has been developed using BIM integration through a life cycle analysis. Minnamurra Railway Bridge (MRB), Australia, has been chosen as a real-world use case to demonstrate the extended application of BIM (i.e., the DT) to enhance the operation, maintenance and asset management to improve the sustainability and resilience of the railway bridge. Moreover, the DT has been exploited to determine GHG emissions and cost consumption through the integration of BIM. This study demonstrates the feasibility of DT technology for railway maintenance and resilience optimisation. It also generates a virtual collaboration for co-simulations and co-creation of values across stakeholders participating in construction, operation and maintenance, and enhancing a reduction in costs and GHG emission.}, }
@article {pmid36616279, year = {2022}, author = {Sampayo-Maldonado, S and Ordoñez-Salanueva, CA and Mattana, E and Way, M and Castillo-Lorenzo, E and Dávila-Aranda, PD and Lira-Saade, R and Téllez-Valdés, O and Rodríguez-Arévalo, NI and Flores-Ortiz, CM and Ulian, T}, title = {Potential Distribution of Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico according to Its Optimal Thermal Range for Seed Germination under Different Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36616279}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {N/A//Garfield Weston Foundation/ ; N/A//Postdoctoral Fellowship Program at the UNAM/ ; IA210020//UNAM-PAPIIT/ ; }, abstract = {Cedrela odorata is a native tree of economic importance, as its wood is highly demanded in the international market. In this work, the current and future distributions of C. odorata in Mexico under climate change scenarios were analyzed according to their optimal temperature ranges for seed germination. For the present distribution, 256 localities of the species' presence were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database and modelled with MaxEnt. For the potential distribution, the National Center for Atmospheric Research model (CCSM4) was used under conservative and drastic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 Watts/m[2], respectively) for the intermediate future (2050) and far future (2070). Potential distribution models were built from occurrence data within the optimum germination temperature range of the species. The potential distribution expanded by 5 and 7.8% in the intermediate and far future, respectively, compared with the current distribution. With the increase in temperature, adequate environmental conditions for the species distribution should be met in the central Mexican state of Guanajuato. The states of Chihuahua, Mexico, Morelos, Guerrero, and Durango presented a negative trend in potential distribution. Additionally, in the far future, the state of Chihuahua it is likely to not have adequate conditions for the presence of the species. For the prediction of the models, the precipitation variable during the driest month presented the greatest contribution. When the humidity is not limiting, the thermal climatic variables are the most important ones. Models based on its thermal niche for seed germination allowed for the identification of areas where temperature will positively affect seed germination, which will help maximize the establishment of plant populations and adaptation to different climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid36616231, year = {2022}, author = {Bilen, C and El Chami, D and Mereu, V and Trabucco, A and Marras, S and Spano, D}, title = {A Systematic Review on the Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Agrosystems.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36616231}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Coffee production is fragile, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports indicate that climate change (CC) will reduce worldwide yields on average and decrease coffee-suitable land by 2050. This article adopted the systematic review approach to provide an update of the literature available on the impacts of climate change on coffee production and other ecosystem services following the framework proposed by the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment. The review identified 148 records from literature considering the effects of climate change and climate variability on coffee production, covering countries mostly from three continents (America, Africa, and Asia). The current literature evaluates and analyses various climate change impacts on single services using qualitative and quantitative methodologies. Impacts have been classified and described according to different impact groups. However, available research products lacked important analytical functions on the precise relationships between the potential risks of CC on coffee farming systems and associated ecosystem services. Consequently, the manuscript recommends further work on ecosystem services and their interrelation to assess the impacts of climate change on coffee following the ecosystem services framework.}, }
@article {pmid36615016, year = {2022}, author = {Picano, E and Mangia, C and D'Andrea, A}, title = {Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Medical Imaging Contribution.}, journal = {Journal of clinical medicine}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36615016}, issn = {2077-0383}, abstract = {Human activities have raised the atmosphere's carbon dioxide (CO2) content by 50% in less than 200 years and by 10% in the last 15 years. Climate change is a great threat and presents a unique opportunity to protect cardiovascular health in the next decades. CO2 equivalent emission is the most convenient unit for measuring the greenhouse gas footprint corresponding to ecological cost. Medical imaging contributes significantly to the CO2 emissions responsible for climate change, yet current medical guidelines ignore the carbon cost. Among the common cardiac imaging techniques, CO2 emissions are lowest for transthoracic echocardiography (0.5-2 kg per exam), increase 10-fold for cardiac computed tomography angiography, and 100-fold for cardiac magnetic resonance. A conservative estimate of 10 billion medical examinations per year worldwide implies that medical imaging accounts for approximately 1% of the overall carbon footprint. In 2016, CO2 emissions from magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography, calculated in 120 countries, accounted for 0.77% of global emissions. A significant portion of global greenhouse gas emissions is attributed to health care, which ranges from 4% in the United Kingdom to 10% in the United States. Assessment of carbon cost should be a part of the cost-benefit balance in medical imaging.}, }
@article {pmid36613407, year = {2023}, author = {Sgouros, G and Mallouchos, A and Dourou, D and Banilas, G and Chalvantzi, I and Kourkoutas, Y and Nisiotou, A}, title = {Torulaspora delbrueckii May Help Manage Total and Volatile Acidity of Santorini-Assyrtiko Wine in View of Global Warming.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36613407}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {Non-Saccharomyces (NS) yeasts are gaining popularity in modern winemaking for improving wine quality. Climate change is one of the biggest challenges winegrowing now faces in warm regions. Here, Lachancea thermotolerans LtS1 and Torulaspora delbrueckii TdS6 combined with Saccharomyces cerevisiae ScS13 isolated from Assyrtiko grapes from Santorini island were evaluated in grape must fermentation with the aim to mitigate major consequences of temperature rise. Different inoculation protocols were evaluated, including simultaneous and sequential mixed-strain inoculations, displaying significant variation in the chemical and kinetic characteristics. Both LtS1 and TdS6 could raise the titratable acidity (TA). TdS6 also reduced the volatile acidity (VA) and was thus chosen for further evaluation in microvinifications and pilot-scale fermentations. Consistent with lab-scale trials, sequential inoculation exhibited the longest persistence of TdS6 resulting in minimum VA levels. Diethyl succinate, ethyl propanoate, and ethyl isobutyrate were significantly increased in sequential inoculations, although a decline in the net total ester content was observed. On the other hand, significantly higher levels of TA, succinic acid, and 2-methylpropanoic were associated with sequential inoculation. The overall performance of TdS6 coupled with a high compatibility with S. cerevisiae suggests its use in the fermentation of Santorini-Assyrtiko or other high sugar musts for the production of structured dry or sweet wines.}, }
@article {pmid36612940, year = {2022}, author = {Ling, J and Xue, Y and Yang, C and Zhang, Y}, title = {Effect of Farmers' Awareness of Climate Change on Their Willingness to Adopt Low-Carbon Production: Based on the TAM-SOR Model.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36612940}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Farmers ; Climate Change ; Pandemics ; *COVID-19 ; Agriculture/methods ; }, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the intricate relationships between human health and the social-ecological system in an era of climate and global change. Widespread COVID-19 adversely affected farmers' employment, production practices, and livelihood resilience. At the same time, climate change is a key issue limiting agricultural production worldwide. Emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, are a major factor leading to global climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production are receiving increasing attention. Therefore, it is particularly important to develop low-carbon agriculture. Based on data from 920 family farms in Jiangsu province and Shaanxi province, this study constructs a structural equation model and empirically tests the relationship between the variables using the bootstrap method. The results show that: (1) climate change awareness did not directly stimulate farmers' willingness to pursue low-carbon production; (2) climate change awareness has an impact on low-carbon production willingness through perceived ease of use and consequence awareness; and (3) anti-risk ability can effectively moderate the impact of climate change awareness on low-carbon production behavior in agriculture. The theoretical model framework proposed in this study provides a reference for research in the field of low-carbon agriculture and also provides some insights and suggestions for environmentalists and governments. In addition, policymakers should effectively raise the sense of responsibility of farmers to address climate change and promote low-carbon agricultural production to achieve healthy and sustainable agricultural development.}, }
@article {pmid36612812, year = {2022}, author = {Zong, L and Yang, F and Pei, X}, title = {Implementing Climate Change Adaptation in Territory Spatial Planning Systems: Challenges and Approaches Based on Practices in Guiyang.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36612812}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; China ; *Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Integrating climate change adaptation into spatial planning has become a global goal in the field of spatial planning. Despite the various relevant policies proposed by governments, there is still a lack of common practice in the field of climate change research and territory spatial planning preparation and research in China. In this study, climate change adaptation planning in the territory spatial planning system (TSPS), based upon risk assessment, is explored using downscaled climate change prediction data (derived from CMIP5) and prefectural master territory spatial planning (MTSP) data from Guiyang. The study found that such practices, despite their feasibility, still face systemic challenges given the current planning system in China, e.g., the deficiency of climate change impact data and analyses, the absence of essential planning tools, and the unsuitability of the current planning system for the integration of adaptation actions. We propose corresponding approaches based on our empirical planning experience and discuss prospects for relevant research and planning.}, }
@article {pmid36612413, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, C and Huang, N and Wang, L and Song, W and Zhang, Y and Niu, Z}, title = {Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Net Ecosystem Productivity in China and Its Response to Climate Change in the Past 40 Years.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36612413}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; China ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Sequestration ; Carbon/analysis ; }, abstract = {Net ecosystem productivity (NEP), which is considered an important indicator to measure the carbon source/sink size of ecosystems on a regional scale, has been widely studied in recent years. Since China's terrestrial NEP plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, it is of great significance to systematically examine its spatiotemporal pattern and driving factors. Based on China's terrestrial NEP products estimated by a data-driven model from 1981 to 2018, the spatial and temporal pattern of China's terrestrial NEP was analyzed, as well as its response to climate change. The results demonstrate that the NEP in China has shown a pattern of high value in the west and low value in the east over the past 40 years. NEP in China from 1981 to 2018 showed a significantly increasing trend, and the NEP change trend was quite different in two sub-periods (i.e., 1981-1999 and 2000-2018). The temporal and spatial changes of China's terrestrial NEP in the past 40 years were affected by both temperature and precipitation. However, the area affected by precipitation was larger. Our results provide a valuable reference for the carbon sequestration capacity of China's terrestrial ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid36610196, year = {2023}, author = {Roy, P and Pal, SC and Chakrabortty, R and Chowdhuri, I and Saha, A and Shit, M}, title = {Effects of climate change and sea-level rise on coastal habitat: Vulnerability assessment, adaptation strategies and policy recommendations.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {330}, number = {}, pages = {117187}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117187}, pmid = {36610196}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Policy ; *Sea Level Rise ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {On a first-order basis, the global "sea level rise" induced by climate change magnifies coastal land subsidence. Various research related to this discipline is associated with estimated sea level vulnerability in various spatial scales. But the potential impact of climate change on sea level rise and its amalgamated vulnerability to the species remain undiscovered with appropriate procedures. So, in this perspective, our main objective of this research is to estimate the potential impact of climate change on sea level rise and it is associated with vulnerability to coastal habitat. From this research, it is established that the increasing tendency of sea level from the base period to the projected period. The major port city of India has been considered in this research. The qualitative "coastal vulnerability index (CVI)" is based on quantitative estimates to characterize the physical setting, including "geomorphology (G), sea level change (SLC), coastal slope (CS), relative sea-level change (RSLC), mean wave height (MWH), mean tide range (MTR), shoreline change rate (SCR), land use and human activities (LU), and population (P)". The projected sea level rise (SLR) is increasing at the highest rate under the higher RCP (Representative Concentrations Pathways) scenario. This information is very helpful to the decision maker for considering the most appropriate development strategies to maintain the sustainable development of coastal ecology in India.}, }
@article {pmid36609891, year = {2023}, author = {Vilakazi, BS and Mukwada, G}, title = {Curbing land degradation and mitigating climate change in mountainous regions: a systemic review.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {2}, pages = {275}, pmid = {36609891}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Agriculture ; Biodiversity ; Soil Erosion ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; }, abstract = {Human population is envisaged to continue to grow, with a tremendous contribution to land degradation and climate change. Climate change and land degradation are intertwined, thus tackling climate change means mitigating land degradation. Climate change is a worldwide problem that affects lives and livelihoods; henceforth, mitigating measures are urgently required. With their unique, rich biodiversity, mountain areas are severely sensitive to climate change and land degradation; therefore, a speedy need to curb land degradation in mountain areas is needed. The aim of this systematic review was to appraise different strategic methods used globally to minimise land degradation and sustain mountainous areas in a frequently changing climate. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) was utilised in this systematic review. The Scopus data base was utilised for document search, with a selection of articles limited between the years 2012 and 2021. Only articles written in English were considered. After assessing the abstracts, 703 articles were retained for a full review, leading to the final selection of 84 articles. The results show that soil erosion, overgrazing and construction of infrastructure are major causes of land degradation. The human population increase is also an enormous contributing factor to activities leading to land degradation and climate change. A conspicuous intensification of agricultural activities is expected to continue due to rising food demand. Curbing land degradation and climate change in mountain areas can be enforced by the government through stricter regulations. However, regulations and policies must be locally initiated, instead of globally initiated, with local communities being the main stakeholders. Hence, bottom-up rather than top-down policies would encourage local communities to embrace mitigation policy initiatives.}, }
@article {pmid36609508, year = {2023}, author = {Feng, Y and Negrón-Juárez, RI and Romps, DM and Chambers, JQ}, title = {Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {101}, pmid = {36609508}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Forests ; Trees ; Climate Change ; Wind ; }, abstract = {Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36608941, year = {2023}, author = {Aasheim, ET and Bhopal, AS and O'Brien, K and Lie, AK and Nakstad, ER and Andersen, LF and Hessen, DO and Samset, BH and Banik, D}, title = {Climate change and health: a 2-week course for medical students to inspire change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {e12-e14}, pmid = {36608941}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Humans ; *Students, Medical ; Climate Change ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid36608940, year = {2023}, author = {Prats, EV and Neville, T and Nadeau, KC and Campbell-Lendrum, D}, title = {WHO Academy education: globally oriented, multicultural approaches to climate change and health.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {e10-e11}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00252-2}, pmid = {36608940}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Curriculum ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid36608610, year = {2023}, author = {Paul, C and Bartkowski, B and Dönmez, C and Don, A and Mayer, S and Steffens, M and Weigl, S and Wiesmeier, M and Wolf, A and Helming, K}, title = {Carbon farming: Are soil carbon certificates a suitable tool for climate change mitigation?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {330}, number = {}, pages = {117142}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117142}, pmid = {36608610}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Soil ; *Climate Change ; Carbon ; Agriculture ; Farms ; Carbon Sequestration ; }, abstract = {Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in agricultural soils removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and contributes towards achieving carbon neutrality. For farmers, higher SOC levels have multiple benefits, including increased soil fertility and resilience against drought-related yield losses. However, increasing SOC levels requires agricultural management changes that are associated with costs. Private soil carbon certificates could compensate for these costs. In these schemes, farmers register their fields with commercial certificate providers who certify SOC increases. Certificates are then sold as voluntary emission offsets on the carbon market. In this paper, we assess the suitability of these certificates as an instrument for climate change mitigation. From a soils' perspective, we address processes of SOC enrichment, their potentials and limits, and options for cost-effective measurement and monitoring. From a farmers' perspective, we assess management options likely to increase SOC, and discuss their synergies and trade-offs with economic, environmental and social targets. From a governance perspective, we address requirements to guarantee additionality and permanence while preventing leakage effects. Furthermore, we address questions of legitimacy and accountability. While increasing SOC is a cornerstone for more sustainable cropping systems, private carbon certificates fall short of expectations for climate change mitigation as permanence of SOC sequestration cannot be guaranteed. Governance challenges include lack of long-term monitoring, problems to ensure additionality, problems to safeguard against leakage effects, and lack of long-term accountability if stored SOC is re-emitted. We conclude that soil-based private carbon certificates are unlikely to deliver the emission offset attributed to them and that their benefit for climate change mitigation is uncertain. Additional research is needed to develop standards for SOC change metrics and monitoring, and to better understand the impact of short term, non-permanent carbon removals on peaks in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and on the probability of exceeding climatic tipping points.}, }
@article {pmid36605073, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe, JN and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Cardiovascular diagnosis and therapy}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {943-946}, pmid = {36605073}, issn = {2223-3652}, }
@article {pmid36604582, year = {2023}, author = {Peng, S and Wang, C and Li, Z and Mihara, K and Kuramochi, K and Toma, Y and Hatano, R}, title = {Climate change multi-model projections in CMIP6 scenarios in Central Hokkaido, Japan.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {230}, pmid = {36604582}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Models ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Japan ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {Simulation of future climate changes, especially temperature and rainfall, is critical for water resource management, disaster mitigation, and agricultural development. Based on the category-wise indicator method, two preferred Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the Ishikari River basin (IRB), the socio-economic center of Hokkaido, Japan, were examined from the newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Climatic variables (maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation) were projected by the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) under all shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, SSP5-3.4OS, and SSP5-8.5) in two phases: 2040-2069 (2040s) and 2070-2099 (2070s), with the period of 1985-2014 as the baseline. Predictors of SDSM were derived from CMIP6 GCMs and the reanalysis dataset NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20th Century Reanalysis V3 (20CRv3). Results showed that CMIP6 GCMs had a significant correlation with temperature measurements, but could not represent precipitation features in the IRB. The constructed SDSM could capture the characteristics of temperature and precipitation during the calibration (1985-1999) and validation (2000-2014) phases, respectively. The selected GCMs (MIROC6 and MRI-ESM-2.0) generated higher temperature and less rainfall in the forthcoming phases. The SSP-RCP scenarios had an apparent influence on temperature and precipitation. High-emission scenarios (i.e., SSP5-8.5) would project a higher temperature and lower rainfall than the low-emission scenarios (e.g., SSP1-1.9). Spatial-temporal analysis indicated that the northern part of the IRB is more likely to become warmer with heavier precipitation than the southern part in the future. Higher temperature and lower rainfall were projected throughout the late twenty-first century (2070s) than the mid-century (2040s) in the IRB. The findings of this study could be further used to predict the hydrological cycle and assess the ecosystem's sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid36603904, year = {2023}, author = {Kotsila, P and Anguelovski, I}, title = {Justice should be at the centre of assessments of climate change impacts on health.}, journal = {The Lancet. Public health}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {e11-e12}, doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00320-6}, pmid = {36603904}, issn = {2468-2667}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Social Justice ; Environmental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid36603263, year = {2023}, author = {Wu, H and Fang, S and Yu, L and Hu, S and Chen, X and Cao, Y and Du, Z and Shen, X and Liu, X and Ma, K}, title = {Limited co-benefits of protected areas in southwest China under current climate change and human modification.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {330}, number = {}, pages = {117190}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117190}, pmid = {36603263}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {An ambitious new Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework "Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework" has been developed. However, the combined effects of climate change and human modification can undermine the potential benefits of the global post-2020 conservation efforts. The co-benefits of stabilizing the climate, conserving biodiversity, and maintaining intact wilderness areas may help to persuade the general public of the need to quickly expand existing protected areas (PAs). To maximize the co-benefits after 2020, the careful optimization of existing (PAs) network and scientific identification of conservation targets are both essential. Here, we mapped hotspots of biodiversity, climate vulnerability, and wilderness in Southwest China (SWC). By analyzing the representativeness and gaps of the existing PAs network in SWC, we devised post-2020 conservation targets and highlighted their implications for decision-makers. Our results showed that the incongruence between hotspots of different species exists, indicating that habitats suitable for one taxon may not fully harbor other taxa. According to our assessment, the five jurisdictions of SWC have warmed on average by 0.4°C-1.1 °C over the past 60 years alone. In particular, biodiversity hotspots in SWC are undergoing stark climatic changes. We uncovered prominent conservation gaps in SWC's network of PAs, especially in terms of climate vulnerability and biodiversity. Due to their insufficient number and unreasonable spatial distribution, the PAs network in SWC may be not capable of meeting its biodiversity, climate vulnerability, and wilderness conservation objectives. To rectify this, we proposed a 3-step mission: milestone 2025, milestone 2030, and goal 2050, which aims to protect 23%, 28%, and 60% of the terrestrial area in SWC, respectively. Taken together, our study derived conservation priority areas with relatively clear spatial boundaries and importance levels, thus providing detailed, timely information for decision-makers to expand the PAs network and implement conservation measures varying in strictness in post-2020 conservation practice.}, }
@article {pmid36602984, year = {2023}, author = {Reyes-García, V and Álvarez-Fernández, S and Benyei, P and García-Del-Amo, D and Junqueira, AB and Labeyrie, V and Li, X and Porcher, V and Porcuna-Ferrer, A and Schlingmann, A and Soleymani, R}, title = {Local indicators of climate change impacts described by indigenous peoples and local communities: Study protocol.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {e0279847}, pmid = {36602984}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Indigenous Peoples ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Population Groups ; Databases, Factual ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: In the quest to improve the understanding of climate change impacts on elements of the atmospheric, physical, and life systems, scientists are challenged by the scarcity and uneven distribution of grounded data. Through their long history of interaction with the environment, Indigenous Peoples and local communities have developed complex knowledge systems that allow them to detect impacts of climate change in the local environment. The study protocol presented here is designed 1) to inventory climate change impacts on the atmospheric, physical, and life systems based on local knowledge and 2) to test hypotheses on the global spatial, socioeconomic, and demographic distribution of reported impacts. The protocol has been developed within the framework of a project aiming to bring insights from Indigenous and local knowledge systems to climate research (https://licci.eu).<br><br>METHODS: Data collection uses a mixed-method approach and relies on the collaboration of a team of 50 trained partners working in sites where people's livelihood directly depend on nature. The data collection protocol consists of two steps. Step 1 includes the collection of secondary data (e.g., spatial and meteorological data) and site contextual information (e.g., village infrastructure, services). Step 1 also includes the use of 1) semi-structured interviews (n = 20-30/site) to document observations of environmental change and their drivers and 2) focus group discussions to identify consensus in the information gathered. Step 2 consist in the application of a household (n from 75 to 125) and individual survey (n from 125 to 175) using a standardized but locally adapted instrument. The survey includes information on 1) individual and household socio-demographic characteristics, 2) direct dependence on nature, 3) household's vulnerability, and 4) individual perceptions of climate change impacts. Survey data are entered in a specifically designed database.<br><br>EXPECTED RESULTS: This protocol allows the systematic documentation and analysis of the patterned distribution of local indicators of climate change impacts across climate types and livelihood activities. Data collected with this protocol helps fill important gaps on local climate change impacts research and can provide tangible outcomes for local people who will be able to better reflect on how climate change impacts them.}, }
@article {pmid36602729, year = {2023}, author = {Kandalai, S and John, NJ and Patel, A}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Geotechnical Infrastructures - state of the art.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {16878-16904}, pmid = {36602729}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Soil/chemistry ; Waste Disposal Facilities ; Temperature ; Freezing ; }, abstract = {Geotechnical infrastructures, like slopes and embankments, retaining walls, foundations, engineered landfills, overburden dumps, and pavements, get continuously exposed to various environmental factors which are climate dependent. Fate/stability of these infrastructures due to extreme and abrupt change in precipitation, temperatures, humidity, and wind/airflow is quite questionable. Some of the issues related to climate change on soils include increase in infiltration rate, high pore-water pressure, decrease in effective stress, soil liquefaction, seepage failures, frost heaving, changes in soil suction potential, swelling and shrinkage in fine-grained soils, differential settlement, and damage to vegetation cover and thereby causing slope failures, waterlogged conditions, floods, soil erosion and/or internal erosion of fines, damage to landfill liners and soil covers, desertification, desiccation cracks on the ground surface, and groundwater table pollution due to contaminant migration. Therefore, studies on the impact of climate change on geotechnical infrastructures have gained attention of many researchers in the recent times. In present study, an up-to-date review of the works related to the influence of various climatic factors on geotechnical properties and thereby on geotechnical projects is carried out. Topics related to climate data downscaling using global climate models (GCM), climate change-induced slope instability, acid rains, desiccation cracking in soils with changing temperatures, impacts of dry-wet cycles and freeze-thaw cycles, and vegetation effects on soils are emphasized in this paper. Furthermore, to address the challenges, need-based research related to resilient infrastructures, thermo-hydro-mechanical models, bioremediation methods, innovative sustainable composite materials, and incorporation of climatic factors in design is highlighted and discussed.}, }
@article {pmid36602438, year = {2023}, author = {Xiong, T and Du, S and Zhang, H and Zhang, X}, title = {Satellite observed reversal in trends of spring phenology in the middle-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during the global warming hiatus.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {2227-2241}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16580}, pmid = {36602438}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {20180623058TC//Science and Technology Development Project of Jilin Province/ ; 41871330//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 42001327//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; //Jilin Province/ ; 2021YFE0117100//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Seasons ; *Plant Development ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The start of the growing season (SOS) is essential to track the responses of vegetation to climate change. However, recent findings on whether the SOS in the middle-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continued to advance or reversed during the global warming hiatus were not consistent. It is necessary to investigate the causes of this controversy and to examine the relationship between the SOS and preseason temperature trends. To this end, we first applied four widely used phenology extraction methods to derive the SOS from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset and then used the ensemble empirical modal decomposition (EEMD) method to extract the nonlinear trends of the SOS and preseason temperature. Our results clarify, for the first time, that the limitations of the linear assumption-based trend analysis methods are an important but overlooked cause of the discrepancies among existing studies on whether the SOS was advanced or delayed in the NH (>30° N) during the global warming hiatus. We further revealed the range of the mismatches between the SOS and preseason temperature trends at the latitude, altitude and biome levels. Specifically, we discovered that the SOS in the NH (>30° N) obtained by the four phenology extraction methods showed a significant reversal from advance to delay during the global warming hiatus, and the corresponding average rate of change was very small. The area showing increasing preseason temperatures decreased during the global warming hiatus, but it always occupied most of the NH (>30° N). However, delayed SOS trends were dominant in the NH from 50° N to 60° N, above 3000 m and in biomes other than TBMF and BF. Accordingly, using an EEMD-like approach to evaluate the changes in the SOS and preseason temperature is necessary for improving our understanding of the changes in the SOS and their association with climate.}, }
@article {pmid36598974, year = {2023}, author = {Otto, C and Kuhla, K and Geiger, T and Schewe, J and Frieler, K}, title = {Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {eadd6616}, pmid = {36598974}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980-2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change-induced increase in growth losses.}, }
@article {pmid36596865, year = {2023}, author = {}, title = {Textbooks cut climate-change content - and more of this week's best science graphics.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-023-00006-3}, pmid = {36596865}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid36596150, year = {2023}, author = {Park, E and Yu, H and Lim, JH and Hee Choi, J and Park, KJ and Lee, J}, title = {Seaweed metabolomics: A review on its nutrients, bioactive compounds and changes in climate change.}, journal = {Food research international (Ottawa, Ont.)}, volume = {163}, number = {}, pages = {112221}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodres.2022.112221}, pmid = {36596150}, issn = {1873-7145}, mesh = {*Seaweed/chemistry ; Climate Change ; Polyphenols ; Vegetables ; Nutrients ; }, abstract = {Seaweed, an important food resource in several Asian countries, contains various metabolites, including sugars, organic acids, and amino acids; however, their content is affected by prevailing environmental conditions. This review discusses seaweed metabolomics, especially the distribution of primary and functional secondary metabolites (e.g., carotenoids, polyphenols) in seaweed. Additionally, the effects of global warming on seaweed metabolite profile changes are discussed. For example, high temperatures can increase amino acid levels in seaweeds. Overall, understanding the effects of global warming on seaweed metabolite profiles can be useful for evaluating the nutritional composition of seaweeds as food. This review provides an overview of recent applications of metabolomics in seaweed research as well as a perspective on the nutrient content and cultivation of seaweeds under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid36595091, year = {2023}, author = {Paul, TT and Sarkar, UK and C, AA and D, VG and Das, BK}, title = {Exploring vulnerabilities of inland fisheries in Indian context with special reference to climate change and their mitigation and adaptation: a review.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {67}, number = {2}, pages = {233-252}, pmid = {36595091}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {CIFRI/NICRA//Indian Council of Agricultural Research/ ; }, mesh = {*Fisheries ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Tropical inland capture fisheries are susceptible to a series of vulnerabilities such as habitat destruction, biodiversity loss, pollution, overfishing, invasive species and anthropogenic climate change. A comprehensive review of the impact of climatic uncertainties on Indian inland fisheries has not been adequately attempted yet. Recent approaches emphasizing ecosystem-based management in a regional context, specific to inland fisheries for combating climatic changes, have not been reported to date. The paper presents a critical bibliometric review of the climatic vulnerabilities faced by Indian inland fishery resources and various adaptive and mitigation strategies put forward by the country for the sustainability of the resources. In this communication, a systematic review of the impact of climate change and other stressors on various inland ecosystems of the subcontinent and the ecosystem-based management strategies adopted in India is presented and discussed.}, }
@article {pmid36593138, year = {2023}, author = {Yang, LN and Ren, M and Zhan, J}, title = {Modeling plant diseases under climate change: evolutionary perspectives.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {28}, number = {5}, pages = {519-526}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2022.12.011}, pmid = {36593138}, issn = {1878-4372}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Plants/genetics ; Biological Evolution ; Plant Diseases ; }, abstract = {Infectious plant diseases are a major threat to global agricultural productivity, economic development, and ecological integrity. There is widespread concern that these social and natural disasters caused by infectious plant diseases may escalate with climate change and computer modeling offers a unique opportunity to address this concern. Here, we analyze the intrinsic problems associated with current modeling strategies and highlight the need to integrate evolutionary principles into polytrophic, eco-evolutionary frameworks to improve predictions. We particularly discuss how evolutionary shifts in functional trade-offs, relative adaptability between plants and pathogens, ecosystems, and climate preferences induced by climate change may feedback to future plant disease epidemics and how technological advances can facilitate the generation and integration of this relevant knowledge for better modeling predictions.}, }
@article {pmid36592919, year = {2023}, author = {Watts, M and Mpanda, M and Hemp, A and Peh, KS}, title = {The potential impact of future climate change on the production of a major food and cash crop in tropical (sub)montane homegardens.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {865}, number = {}, pages = {161263}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161263}, pmid = {36592919}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Tanzania ; *Agriculture ; Farms ; Soil/chemistry ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Tropical agroforestry systems support the wellbeing of many smallholder farmers. These systems provide smallholders with crops for consumption and income through their ecological interactions between their tree, soil, and crop components. These interactions, however, could be vulnerable to changes in climate conditions; yet a reliable understanding of how this could happen is not well documented. The aim of this study is to understand how tree-soil-crop interactions and crop yield are affected by changes in climate conditions, which has implications for recognising how these systems could be affected by climate change. We used a space-for-time climate analogue approach, in conjunction with structural equation modelling, to empirically examine how warmer and drier climate conditions affects tree-soil-crop interactions and banana yield in Mt. Kilimanjaro's homegarden agroforest. Overall, the change in climate conditions negatively affected ecological interactions in the homegardens by destabilizing soil nutrient cycles. Banana yield, however, was mainly directly influenced by the climate. Banana yields could initially benefit from the warmer climate before later declining under water stress. Our findings imply that under increasingly warmer and drier climate conditions, homegarden agroforestry may not be a robust long-term farming practice which can protect smallholder's wellbeing unless effective irrigation measures are implemented.}, }
@article {pmid36590233, year = {2022}, author = {Johnson, T and Butcher, J and Santell, S and Schwartz, S and Julius, S and LeDuc, S}, title = {A review of climate change effects on practices for mitigating water quality impacts.}, journal = {Journal of water and climate change}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1684-1705}, pmid = {36590233}, issn = {2408-9354}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Water quality practices are commonly implemented to reduce human impacts on land and water resources. In series or parallel in a landscape, systems of practices can reduce local and downstream pollution delivery. Many practices function via physical, chemical, and biological processes that are dependent on weather and climate. Climate change will alter the function of many such systems, though effects will vary in different hydroclimatic and watershed settings. Reducing the risk of impacts will require risk-based, adaptive planning. Here, we review the literature addressing climate change effects on practices commonly used to mitigate the water quality impacts of urban stormwater, agriculture, and forestry. Information from the general literature review is used to make qualitative inferences about the resilience of different types of practices. We discuss resilience in the context of two factors: the sensitivity of practice function to changes in climatic drivers, and the adaptability, or relative ease with which a practice can be modified as change occurs. While only a first step in addressing a complex topic, our aim is to help communities incorporate consideration of resilience to climate change as an additional factor in decisions about water quality practices to meet long-term goals.}, }
@article {pmid36589906, year = {2023}, author = {Tsagkaris, C and Eleftheriades, A and Matiashova, L}, title = {COVID-19, Monkeypox, climate change and surgery: A syndemic undermines the right to be operated in a clean, healthy and sustainable environment.}, journal = {Perioperative care and operating room management}, volume = {30}, number = {}, pages = {100305}, pmid = {36589906}, issn = {2405-6030}, abstract = {The compounding effect of infectious outbreaks and climate change has put a strain on surgical care. Adverse weather conditions derail preoperative planning, postoperative recovery, supply chains and equipment. The COVID-19 pandemic has restricted elective surgical care for the past two years. It is expected that novel SARS-CoV-2 strains and the emergence of Monkeypox can also put barriers to surgical care. Consecutively, mounting surgical morbidity and strenuous efforts to adhere to infection control further increase the ecological footprint of surgical care fueling a vicious circle of clinical and environmental challenges. Multilevel action from the side of surgeons and surgical societies is required. This includes creating contingency plans for sustainable surgical practice amidst public health emergencies, informing stakeholders and the public about the cumulative ramifications of the syndemic on surgery and promoting social participation among surgeons.}, }
@article {pmid36587668, year = {2023}, author = {Díaz, PA and Pérez-Santos, I and Basti, L and Garreaud, R and Pinilla, E and Barrera, F and Tello, A and Schwerter, C and Arenas-Uribe, S and Soto-Riquelme, C and Navarro, P and Díaz, M and Álvarez, G and Linford, PM and Altamirano, R and Mancilla-Gutiérrez, G and Rodríguez-Villegas, C and Figueroa, RI}, title = {The impact of local and climate change drivers on the formation, dynamics, and potential recurrence of a massive fish-killing microalgal bloom in Patagonian fjord.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {865}, number = {}, pages = {161288}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161288}, pmid = {36587668}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Estuaries ; *Microalgae ; Climate Change ; Harmful Algal Bloom ; Salmon ; Chile ; Water ; }, abstract = {Harmful algal blooms (HABs) in southern Chile are a serious threat to public health, tourism, artisanal fisheries, and aquaculture in this region. Ichthyotoxic HAB species have recently become a major annual threat to the Chilean salmon farming industry, due to their severe economic impacts. In early austral autumn 2021, an intense bloom of the raphidophyte Heterosigma akashiwo was detected in Comau Fjord, Chilean Patagonia, resulting in a high mortality of farmed salmon (nearly 6000 tons of biomass) within 15 days. H. akashiwo cells were first detected at the head of the fjord on March 16, 2021 (up to 478 cells mL[-1]). On March 31, the cell density at the surface had reached a maximum of 2 × 10[5] cells mL[-1], with intense brown spots visible on the water surface. Strong and persistent high-pressure anomalies over the southern tip of South America, consistent with the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), resulted in extremely dry conditions, high solar radiation, and strong southerly winds. A coupling of these features with the high water retention times inside the fjord can explain the spatial-temporal dynamics of this bloom event. Other factors, such as the internal local physical uplift process (favored by the north-to-south orientation of the fjord), salt-fingering events, and the uplift of subantarctic deep-water renewal, likely resulted in the injection of nutrients into the euphotic layer, which in turn could have promoted cell growth and thus high microalgal cell densities, such as reached by the bloom.}, }
@article {pmid36587220, year = {2022}, author = {Thomas, I and Martin, A and Wicker, A and Benoit, L}, title = {Understanding youths' concerns about climate change: a binational qualitative study of ecological burden and resilience.}, journal = {Child and adolescent psychiatry and mental health}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {110}, pmid = {36587220}, issn = {1753-2000}, support = {UL1 TR001863/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has been shown to have long-term effects on mental health, yet, to date, there have been few studies on how children and adolescents experience and respond to ecological changes and how and why they engage in climate action. We explored empirically young people's views about climate change and how distinct cultural contexts influence individual climate action.<br><br>METHODS: We invited children and adolescents (ages 7 to 18) and their caregivers from the general population in the United States and France to participate in semi-structured focus groups. We recruited 74 participants, 39 in the U.S. (33 children and adolescents, 6 parents) and 35 in France (32 children and adolescents, 3 parents). Focus groups with participants centered on their emotions, beliefs, and actions around climate change. We analyzed the focus group data and developed themes via grounded theory and symbolic interactionist approaches.<br><br>RESULTS: Many participants described experiencing anger, hopelessness, guilt, and sadness in response to climate change, and a smaller number endorsed significant anxiety symptoms; many described frustration about needing to fix the mistakes of earlier generations. Younger participants frequently misunderstood the purpose of their parents' eco-conscious behaviors unless they were provided with age-appropriate explanations. Participants described a spectrum of experiences when trying to discuss climate change with peers and family, ranging from genuine support to apathy to hostility. Between the two samples, U.S. participants experienced more conflict with adults about climate change than French participants, but French participants described a greater lack of political agency compared to U.S.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: Participants in both samples expressed a relatively balanced view of climate action, recognizing the significance of individual actions while acknowledging the limits of their power in the face of systemic issues. Some found hope and empowerment through climate action and building communities around it.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Discussing with children and adolescents what adults are doing to mitigate climate change can provide reassurance, model prosocial behaviors, and inspire their own investment in climate action. Adults seeking to support the psychological well-being of young people should both support their concerns and actions around climate change and create avenues for young people to meaningfully engage in climate action.}, }
@article {pmid36585762, year = {2023}, author = {Leisner, CP and Potnis, N and Sanz-Saez, A}, title = {Crosstalk and trade-offs: Plant responses to climate change-associated abiotic and biotic stresses.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {46}, number = {10}, pages = {2946-2963}, doi = {10.1111/pce.14532}, pmid = {36585762}, issn = {1365-3040}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Plant Development ; Stress, Physiological/physiology ; Crops, Agricultural ; }, abstract = {As sessile organisms, plants are constantly challenged by a dynamic growing environment. This includes fluctuations in temperature, water availability, light levels, and changes in atmospheric constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3). In concert with changes in abiotic conditions, plants experience changes in biotic stress pressures, including plant pathogens and herbivores. Human-induced increases in atmospheric CO2 levels have led to alterations in plant growth environments that impact their productivity and nutritional quality. Additionally, it is predicted that climate change will alter the prevalence and virulence of plant pathogens, further challenging plant growth. A knowledge gap exists in the complex interplay between plant responses to biotic and abiotic stress conditions. Closing this gap is crucial for developing climate resilient crops in the future. Here, we briefly review the physiological responses of plants to elevated CO2 , temperature, tropospheric O3 , and drought conditions, as well as the interaction of these abiotic stress factors with plant pathogen pressure. Additionally, we describe the crosstalk and trade-offs involved in plant responses to both abiotic and biotic stress, and outline targets for future work to develop a more sustainable future food supply considering future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36585578, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, S and Zhu, Z and Yang, L and Liu, X}, title = {Vegetation cover variations associated with climate change and human activities in Nanjing metropolitan area of China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {13}, pages = {38535-38549}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-022-25056-4}, pmid = {36585578}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2021SJZDA130//Major Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research in Colleges and Universities of Jiangsu Province/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; China ; Human Activities ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Quantify the relative effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation cover can help us understand the vegetation cover change and its drivers. Residual analysis, defined as the difference between potential normalized difference vegetation index (NDVIpot) and observed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVIact), was used to solve this problem. The estimation of NDVIpot is one of the important issues faced by ecologists. Due to the strictly protection of environment and ecosystems, the ecosystems in nature reserves are rarely disturbed by human activities. Therefore, establishing NDVIpot estimation model based on nature reserves can improve the estimation accuracy of NDVIpot. However, the estimation of NDVIpot based on nature reserves has not yet been reported. In this paper, the NDVIpot estimation model was established based on nature reserves, and residual analysis was used to quantify the impact of human activities on NDVIact. The results show that the NDVIact in Nanjing metropolitan area (NJMA) showed a significant upward trend from 2000 to 2019, and 74.20% of NJMA showed greening trends, while 24.47% showed browning trends. The temperature and precipitation were positively correlated with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the impact of the temperature on NDVI was greater than that of precipitation. The promotion of human activities on NDVI had become more and more significant. There was 51.88% of NJMA where the human activities had a positive promotion effect on NDVI, while there was 46.29% of the regional where the human activities had a negative inhibitory effect on NDVI. The population density (POP) and gross domestic product (GDP) were mainly positively correlated with NDVI, and the impact of the POP on NDVI was greater than that of GDP. The conversion of cropland to forests and the increase of the sown area of crops also caused the NDVI to increase, while the disorderly expansion of urban land caused the NDVI to decrease.}, }
@article {pmid36583369, year = {2023}, author = {Chatzimentor, A and Doxa, A and Katsanevakis, S and Mazaris, AD}, title = {Are Mediterranean marine threatened species at high risk by climate change?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {1809-1821}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16577}, pmid = {36583369}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2340//Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation/ ; 101059407//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; 869300//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Endangered Species ; Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Mediterranean Sea ; *Caniformia ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Rapid anthropogenic climate change is driving threatened biodiversity one step closer to extinction. Effects on native biodiversity are determined by an interplay between species' exposure to climate change and their specific ecological and life-history characteristics that render them even more susceptible. Impacts on biodiversity have already been reported, however, a systematic risk evaluation of threatened marine populations is lacking. Here, we employ a trait-based approach to assess the risk of 90 threatened marine Mediterranean species to climate change, combining species' exposure to increased sea temperature and intrinsic vulnerability. One-quarter of the threatened marine biodiversity of the Mediterranean Sea is predicted to be under elevated levels of climate risk, with various traits identified as key vulnerability traits. High-risk taxa including sea turtles, marine mammals, Anthozoa and Chondrichthyes are highlighted. Climate risk, vulnerability and exposure hotspots are distributed along the Western Mediterranean, Alboran, Aegean, and Adriatic Seas. At each Mediterranean marine ecoregion, 21%-31% of their threatened species have high climate risk. All Mediterranean marine protected areas host threatened species with high risk to climate change, with 90% having a minimum of 4 up to 19 species of high climate risk, making the objective of a climate-smart conservation strategy a crucial task for immediate planning and action. Our findings aspire to offer new insights for systematic, spatially strategic planning and prioritization of vulnerable marine life in the face of accelerating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36583139, year = {2022}, author = {Karandish, F and Nouri, H and Schyns, JF}, title = {Agricultural Adaptation to Reconcile Food Security and Water Sustainability Under Climate Change: The Case of Cereals in Iran.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e2021EF002095}, pmid = {36583139}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {In this study, we simulate the crop yield and water footprint (WF) of major food crops of Iran on irrigated and rainfed croplands for the historical and the future climate. We assess the effects of three agricultural adaptation strategies to climate change in terms of potential blue water savings. We then evaluate to what extent these savings can reduce unsustainable blue WF. We find that cereal production increases under climate change in both irrigated and rainfed croplands (by 2.6-3.1 and 1.4-2.3 million t yr[-1], respectively) due to increased yields (6.6%-78.7%). Simultaneously, the unit WF (m[3] t[-1]) tends to decrease in most scenarios. However, the annual consumptive water use increases in both irrigated and rainfed croplands (by 0.3-1.8 and 0.5-1.7 billion m[3] yr[-1], respectively). This is most noticeable in the arid regions, where consumptive water use increases by roughly 70% under climate change. Off-season cultivation is the most effective adaptation strategy to alleviate additional pressure on blue water resources with blue water savings of 14-15 billion m[3] yr[-1]. The second most effective is WF benchmarking, which results in blue water savings of 1.1-3.5 billion m[3] yr[-1]. The early planting strategy is less effective but still leads to blue water savings of 1.7-1.9 billion m[3] yr[-1]. In the same order of effectiveness, these three strategies can reduce blue water scarcity and unsustainable blue water use in Iran under current conditions. However, we find that these strategies do not mitigate water scarcity in all provinces per se, nor all months of the year.}, }
@article {pmid36582830, year = {2023}, author = {Tang, Y and Duan, H and Yu, S}, title = {Mitigating climate change to alleviate economic inequality under the Paris Agreement.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {105734}, pmid = {36582830}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Understanding the implications of global climate governance is critical for achieving sustainable economic development, given that the economic impacts of climate change and policies are disproportionately distributed across regions. We estimate the updated damage functions and construct an uncertainty analysis framework to assess whether stringent climate policies entail economic benefits in terms of growth and inequality. The findings show that although climate policies slow the pace of economic growth, the benefits of avoided damage may overweight policy costs in the long run. Moreover, pursuing the 1.5°C goal slows economic catch-up of poor countries in the short to medium term relative to 2°C, but improves global inequality in the long run. This situation may, however, change when moving to a fast-growing and fossil-fueled world, in which inequalities gradually decline but start to rise after 2065. This study highlights the importance of synergizing the stringent 1.5°C goal with economic inequality alleviation.}, }
@article {pmid36582642, year = {2022}, author = {Jung, JY and Kim, JH and Baek, M and Cho, C and Cho, J and Kim, J and Pavan, W and Kim, KH}, title = {Adapting to the projected epidemics of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Korea under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1040752}, pmid = {36582642}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Fusarium head blight (FHB) of wheat, mainly caused by Fusarium graminearum Schwabe, is an emerging threat to wheat production in Korea under a changing climate. The disease occurrence and accumulation of associated trichothecene mycotoxins in wheat kernels strongly coincide with warm and wet environments during flowering. Recently, the International Panel for Climate Change released the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate change scenarios with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In this study, we adopted GIBSIM, an existing mechanistic model developed in Brazil to estimate the risk infection index of wheat FHB, to simulate the potential FHB epidemics in Korea using the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios of CMIP6. The GIBSIM model simulates FHB infection risk from airborne inoculum density and infection frequency using temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity during the flowering period. First, wheat heading dates, during which GIBSIM runs, were predicted over suitable areas of winter wheat cultivation using a crop development rate model for wheat phenology and downscaled SSP scenarios. Second, an integrated model combining all results of wheat suitability, heading dates, and FHB infection risks from the SSP scenarios showed a gradual increase in FHB epidemics towards 2100, with different temporal and spatial patterns of varying magnitudes depending on the scenarios. These results indicate that proactive management strategies need to be seriously considered in the near future to minimize the potential impacts of the FHB epidemic under climate change in Korea. Therefore, available wheat cultivars with early or late heading dates were used in the model simulations as a realistic adaptation measure. As a result, wheat cultivars with early heading dates showed significant decreases in FHB epidemics in future periods, emphasizing the importance of effective adaptation measures against the projected increase in FHB epidemics in Korea under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36581281, year = {2023}, author = {Takhellambam, BS and Srivastava, P and Lamba, J and McGehee, RP and Kumar, H and Tian, D}, title = {Projected mid-century rainfall erosivity under climate change over the southeastern United States.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {865}, number = {}, pages = {161119}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161119}, pmid = {36581281}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Recent observations and climate change projections indicate that changes in rainfall energy, intensity, duration, and frequency, which determine the erosive power of rainfall, will amplify erosion rates around the world. However, the magnitude and scope of these future changes in erosive power of rainfall remain largely unknown, particularly at finer-resolutions and local scales. Due to a lack of available projected future sub-hourly climate data, previous studies relied on aggregates (hourly, daily) rainfall data. The erosivity for the southeastern United States in this study was calculated using the RUSLE2 erosivity calculation method without data limitation and a recently published 15-min precipitation dataset. This precipitation data was derived from five NA-CORDEX climate models' precipitation products under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. In this dataset, hourly climate projections of precipitation were bias-corrected and temporally downscaled to 15-min resolution for 187 locations with collocated 15-min precipitation observations. Precipitation, erosivity (R-factor), and erosivity density (ED) estimations were provided for historical (1970-1999) and future (2030-2059) time periods. Ensemble results for projected values (as compared to historical values) showed increase in precipitation, erosivity, and erosivity density by 14 %, 47 %, and 29 %, respectively. The future ensemble model showed an average annual R-factor of 11,237±1299 MJ mm ha[-1]h[-1]yr[-1]. These findings suggest that changes in rainfall intensity, rather than precipitation amount, may be driving the change in erosivity. However, the bias correction and downscaling limitations inherent in the original precipitation dataset and this study's analyses obscured this particular result. In general, coastal and mountainous regions are expected to experience the greatest absolute increase in erosivity, while other inland areas are expected to experience the greatest relative change. This study offers a novel examination of projected future precipitation characteristics in terms of erosivity and potential future erosion.}, }
@article {pmid36579431, year = {2022}, author = {Alryalat, SA and Toubasi, AA and Patnaik, JL and Kahook, MY}, title = {The impact of air pollution and climate change on eye health: a global review.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2022-0209}, pmid = {36579431}, issn = {2191-0308}, abstract = {Climate change has important implications on human health, affecting almost every system in the body. Multiple studies have raised the possibility of climate change impacting eye health. In this review, we aimed to summarize current literature on the impact of air pollution and climate change on eye health. We performed a search in four different databases, including Medline, Scopus, Cochrane, and Web of Sciences databases. The search strategy combined terms regarding eye health and environmental/climate changes. The outcome of interest included all eye conditions. The search yielded 2,051 unique articles. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, 61 articles were included in this systematic review with data covering 2,620,030 participants. Most studies originated from China, India, South Korea, and USA. Climate change adversely affected different eye conditions, with ocular surface diseases (e.g., conjunctivitis and dry eye) being most affected. Moreover, higher particulate matter (PM) was the most widely assessed pollutant and was adversely associated with the majority of eye conditions, increasing the burden on patients and healthcare providers. We found a low frequency of publications related to the delivery of eye care and its impact on climate change in countries with high air pollution and climate change burden.}, }
@article {pmid36578348, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, H and Yin, Z and Zhang, L and Zhao, F and Huang, W and Wang, X and Gao, Y}, title = {Irrigation modulates the effect of increasing temperatures under climate change on cotton production of drip irrigation under plastic film mulching in southern Xinjiang.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1069190}, pmid = {36578348}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Warming and drought brought about by climate change seriously harm sustainable agricultural production in southern Xinjiang. It is still unclear how irrigation can improve the ability of crops to cope with climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Therefore, in this study, we calibrated and validated the AquaCrop model using data collected in cotton production from 2017 to 2018. The model effectively simulated the growth, biomass, and yield of cotton plants at the experimental site under different warming and irrigation conditions. The meteorological data collected from 1987 to 2016 were used in a simulation to predict cotton production under 3 temperature scenarios (temperature increased by 0&#xb0;C, 1&#xb0;C, and 2&#xb0;C) and 6 levels of irrigation (198, 264, 330, 396, 495, and 594&#xa0;mm) to explain the modulating effect of plastic film mulching-coupled drip irrigation on cotton production in terms of increasing temperatures under climate change in southern Xinjiang.<br><br>RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Model prediction showed that an increase in temperature reduced cotton yield under a low irrigation level, while an increase in irrigation mitigated the impact of climate change on cotton yield. An increase of 1&#xb0;C did not significantly reduce cotton yield at 198-330 mm of irrigation. Under a 2&#xb0;C increase, 396-594 mm of irrigation was required to ensure plant growth and yield formation. Both aboveground biomass and yield increased with the rise in the irrigation level at the same temperature. High water use efficiency was achieved at 495&#xa0;mm of irrigation without significant yield loss. Therefore, in the low-temperature scenario, it can be preferentially considered to achieve sustainable water use through water management, while in the high-temperature scenario innovative agricultural measures are required to avoid yield loss. Optimizing irrigation strategies can reduce warming-induced damage to crops under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36575965, year = {2023}, author = {Kim, J and Waugh, DW and Zaitchik, BF and Luong, A and Bergmark, R and Lam, K and Roland, L and Levy, J and Lee, JT and Cho, DY and Ramanathan, M and Baroody, F and Takashima, M and O'Brien, D and Lin, SY and Joe, S and Chaaban, MR and Butrymowicz, A and Smith, S and Mullings, W}, title = {Climate change, the environment, and rhinologic disease.}, journal = {International forum of allergy &amp; rhinology}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {865-876}, doi = {10.1002/alr.23128}, pmid = {36575965}, issn = {2042-6984}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Rhinitis/epidemiology ; *Hypersensitivity ; *Sinusitis/epidemiology ; Chronic Disease ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The escalating negative impact of climate change on our environment has the potential to result in significant morbidity of rhinologic diseases.<br><br>METHODS: Evidence based review of examples of rhinologic diseases including allergic and nonallergic rhinitis, chronic rhinosinusitis, and allergic fungal rhinosinusitis was performed.<br><br>RESULTS: The lower socioeconomic population, including historically oppressed groups, will be disproportionately affected.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We need a systematic approach to improve healthcare database infrastructure and funding to promote diverse scientific collaboration to address these healthcare needs.}, }
@article {pmid36574899, year = {2023}, author = {Dinulos, JE and Dinulos, JG}, title = {Present and future: Infectious tropical travel rashes and the impact of climate change.}, journal = {Annals of allergy, asthma &amp; immunology : official publication of the American College of Allergy, Asthma, &amp; Immunology}, volume = {130}, number = {4}, pages = {452-462}, pmid = {36574899}, issn = {1534-4436}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *COVID-19 ; *Communicable Diseases ; *Exanthema ; Skin ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {In this article, we discuss pertinent cutaneous findings with which patients may present after travel to tropical destinations. We address arthropod-borne infectious diseases such as cutaneous leishmaniasis, Chagas disease, cutaneous larva migrans, and myiasis. We discuss other relevant diseases with cutaneous signs such as monkey pox and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We provide clinicians with information regarding the background, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of these tropical rashes. In addition, we address the impact that climate change will have on the temporal and geographic incidence of these rashes. Viral, fungal, and vector-borne diseases have seen a geographic expansion into more northern latitudes. Among these are tick-borne Lyme disease, aquatic snail-related seabather's eruption, and atopic dermatitis. As these diseases spread, we believe that the updated information within this article is significant to the practicing physician in today's warming world.}, }
@article {pmid36574767, year = {2023}, author = {Stibel, JM}, title = {Climate Change Influences Brain Size in Humans.}, journal = {Brain, behavior and evolution}, volume = {98}, number = {2}, pages = {93-106}, pmid = {36574767}, issn = {1421-9743}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Organ Size ; Fossils ; *Hominidae ; }, abstract = {Brain size evolution in hominins constitutes a crucial evolutionary trend, yet the underlying mechanisms behind those changes are not well understood. Here, climate change is considered as an environmental factor using multiple paleoclimate records testing temperature, humidity, and precipitation against changes to brain size in 298 Homo specimens over the past fifty thousand years. Across regional and global paleoclimate records, brain size in Homo averaged significantly lower during periods of climate warming as compared to cooler periods. Geological epochs displayed similar patterns, with Holocene warming periods comprising significantly smaller brained individuals as compared to those living during glacial periods at the end of the Late Pleistocene. Testing spatiotemporal patterns, the adaptive response appears to have started roughly fifteen thousand years ago and may persist into modern times. To a smaller degree, humidity and precipitation levels were also predictive of brain size, with arid periods associated with greater brain size in Homo. The findings suggest an adaptive response to climate change in human brain size that is driven by natural selection in response to environmental stress.}, }
@article {pmid36574248, year = {2022}, author = {Wolfson, JA and Musicus, AA and Leung, CW and Gearhardt, AN and Falbe, J}, title = {Effect of Climate Change Impact Menu Labels on Fast Food Ordering Choices Among US Adults: A Randomized Clinical Trial.}, journal = {JAMA network open}, volume = {5}, number = {12}, pages = {e2248320}, pmid = {36574248}, issn = {2574-3805}, support = {K01 DK113068/DK/NIDDK NIH HHS/United States ; K01 DK119166/DK/NIDDK NIH HHS/United States ; T32 HL098048/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; T32 CA057711/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; *Fast Foods ; *Energy Intake ; Climate Change ; Food Preferences ; Restaurants ; }, abstract = {IMPORTANCE: There is increasing interest in strategies to encourage more environmentally sustainable food choices in US restaurants through the use of menu labels that indicate an item's potential impact on the world's climate. Data are lacking on the ideal design of such labels to effectively encourage sustainable choices.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To test the effects of positive and negative climate impact menu labels on the environmental sustainability and healthfulness of food choices compared with a control label.<br><br>This randomized clinical trial used an online national US survey conducted March 30 to April 13, 2022, among a nationally representative sample of adults (aged &#x2265;18 years) from the AmeriSpeak panel. Data were analyzed in June to October 2022.<br><br>INTERVENTIONS: Participants were shown a fast food menu and prompted to select 1 item they would like to order for dinner. Participants were randomized to view menus with 1 of 3 label conditions: a quick response code label on all items (control group); green low-climate impact label on chicken, fish, or vegetarian items (positive framing); or red high-climate impact label on red meat items (negative framing).<br><br>MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was an indicator of selecting a sustainable item (ie, one without red meat). Secondary outcomes included participant health perceptions of the selected item and the Nutrition Profile Index (NPI) score of healthfulness.<br><br>RESULTS: Among 5049 participants (2444 female [51.6%]; 789 aged 18-29 years [20.3%], 1532 aged 30-44 years [25.9%], 1089 aged 45-59 years [23.5%], and 1639 aged &#x2265;60 years [30.4%]; 142 Asian [5.3%], 611 Black [12.1%], and 3197 White [63.3%]; 866 Hispanic [17.2%]), high- and low-climate impact labels were effective at encouraging sustainable selections from the menu. Compared with participants in the control group, 23.5% more participants (95% CI, 13.7%-34.0%; P&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001) selected a sustainable menu item when menus displayed high-climate impact labels and 9.9% more participants (95% CI, 1.0%-19.8%; P&#x2009;=&#x2009;.03) selected a sustainable menu item when menus displayed low-climate impact labels. Across experimental conditions, participants who selected a sustainable item rated their order as healthier than those who selected an unsustainable item, according to mean perceived healthfulness score (control label: 3.4 points; 95% CI, 3.2-3.5 points vs 2.5 points; 95% CI, 2.4-2.6 points; P&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001; low-impact label: 3.7 points; 95% CI, 3.5-3.8 points vs 2.6 points; 95% CI, 2.5-2.7 points; P&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001; high-impact label: 3.5 points; 95% CI, 3.3-3.6 points vs 2.7 points; 95% CI, 2.6-2.9 points; P&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001). Participants in the high-climate impact label group selected healthier items according to mean (SE) NPI score (54.3 [0.2] points) compared with those in the low-climate impact (53.2 [0.2] points; P&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001) and control (52.9 [0.3] points; P&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001) label groups.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This randomized clinical trial's findings suggest that climate impact menu labels, especially negatively framed labels highlighting high-climate impact items (ie, red meat), were an effective strategy to reduce red meat selections and encourage more sustainable choices.<br><br>TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05482204.}, }
@article {pmid36572721, year = {2022}, author = {Krämer, WE and Iglesias-Prieto, R and Enríquez, S}, title = {Evaluation of the current understanding of the impact of climate change on coral physiology after three decades of experimental research.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {1418}, pmid = {36572721}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Seawater ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Coral Reefs ; }, abstract = {After three decades of coral research on the impacts of climate change, there is a wide consensus on the adverse effects of heat-stress, but the impacts of ocean acidification (OA) are not well established. Using a review of published studies and an experimental analysis, we confirm the large species-specific component of the OA response, which predicts moderate impacts on coral physiology and pigmentation by 2100 (scenario-B1 or SSP2-4.5), in contrast with the severe disturbances induced by only +2 °C of thermal anomaly. Accordingly, global warming represents a greater threat for coral calcification than OA. The incomplete understanding of the moderate OA response relies on insufficient attention to key regulatory processes of these symbioses, particularly the metabolic dependence of coral calcification on algal photosynthesis and host respiration. Our capacity to predict the future of coral reefs depends on a correct identification of the main targets and/or processes impacted by climate change stressors.}, }
@article {pmid36572702, year = {2022}, author = {Kirby, M and Mainuddin, M}, title = {The impact of climate change, population growth and development on sustainable water security in Bangladesh to 2100.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {22344}, pmid = {36572702}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Population Growth ; *Climate Change ; Bangladesh ; Water ; Models, Theoretical ; Water Supply ; Growth and Development ; }, abstract = {There are concerns that groundwater use for irrigation and for urban water supply is unsustainable in some parts of Bangladesh, particularly in the agriculturally productive northwest region. We use an integrated population - GDP - food - water model to examine water demand to 2100 in Bangladesh in development scenarios relevant to food and water security. The results indicate that irrigation water demand is projected to increase in coming decades, but later in the century it may decrease due to increasing crop yields and a falling population. The increased demand is greatest in the northwest region and, if unchecked, would increase concerns there about the unsustainable use of groundwater. The growth in demand is determined particularly by growth in crop yields, population growth and the fraction of food demand satisfied by imports. An extreme hot-dry climate change scenario has a lesser impact. This suggests that, in principle, Bangladesh can offset the impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand through its domestic policies. Urban water use currently also leads to concerns over unsustainable groundwater use. Our results suggest that urban water demand is likely to grow proportionately significantly more than irrigation water demand. Alternative sources for urban water are therefore urgently required.}, }
@article {pmid36572663, year = {2022}, author = {Brunel-Muguet, S and Vetukuri, RR and Testillano, PS}, title = {Epigenetics for crop adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {174}, number = {6}, pages = {e13835}, doi = {10.1111/ppl.13835}, pmid = {36572663}, issn = {1399-3054}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Agriculture ; Acclimatization/genetics ; Epigenesis, Genetic/genetics ; }, }
@article {pmid36572558, year = {2022}, author = {Dhar, S and Lee, JY}, title = {How Does Global Warming Sabotage Plant Immunity?.}, journal = {Molecules and cells}, volume = {45}, number = {12}, pages = {883-885}, pmid = {36572558}, issn = {0219-1032}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid36571748, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {La Tunisie medicale}, volume = {100}, number = {10}, pages = {656-658}, pmid = {36571748}, issn = {2724-7031}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36570639, year = {2023}, author = {Adewole, O}, title = {CSR-brand relationship, brand positioning, and investment risks driven towards climate change mitigation and next perspectives emerging from: "Litigation, projections, pathway, and models".}, journal = {SN business &amp; economics}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {18}, pmid = {36570639}, issn = {2662-9399}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: This study delineates the relationship between CSR and brands, unveiling pragmatic steps towards achieving the sustainable business environment, while unveiling its potential towards climate changes mitigation cognizant of investment risks, leading to an action plan-framework for proffering practical solutions coupled with establishing future paths and projection towards addressing climatic changes consequences, risen incidences in litigation trends and environmental issues. Trends manifesting in risen litigation incidences linked to industrial and economic activities that adversely impact the climate, environment and society makes it imperative to look extensively beyond prediction models while establishing and building on brand relationship with CSR, while strategically establishing a practically realistic business model for translating this relationship to value-creation and applied in abating climate change, addressing all environmental concerns, redressing litigation incidences, among other issues resulting from impacts of business and socio-economic pursuits of humans. The twenty-first century realities towards a green planet demands doing business strategically, optimize resources by imbibing investment risks as a trend and organizational culture-strategic fit, adopting brand as a potential tool for addressing climate change and environmentally related activities and adversaries from business activities and negligent practices from such, while achieving climate change mitigation as outlined and extensively inundated.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43546-022-00374-4.}, }
@article {pmid36569773, year = {2022}, author = {Matimolane, S and Chikoore, H and Mathivha, FI and Kori, E}, title = {Maize producers' vulnerability to climate change: Evidence from Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1165}, pmid = {36569773}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to impact agricultural production and affect food security in poor communities of developing countries due to the likely negative impacts on rainfall characteristics. South Africa is one of the largest producers of maize crops in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The majority of crop production is rainfed with precipitation received during the summer growing season. This study evaluated the impact of climate change on maize yields using trend and multiple regression analysis in northern South Africa. Exposure and vulnerability of maize farmers to the impacts of climate change were also evaluated. Rainfall characteristics showed variability of 20.35% with rain days standard deviation of 10.25 days and coefficient of variation of 18.57%. The results revealed a weak relationship between annual rainfall and rainy days, and annual rainfall and maize yields, both showed an r[2] and p-values of less than 0.5 and 0.005, respectively. The study found that variations in rainfall did not significantly influence variation in maize yields. Despite a clear fluctuation in yields, the results demonstrate a rising trend that can be attributed to agricultural practices such as the use of fertilisers and planting drought resistant cultivars as opposed to climate variables. The study further found that maize producers were proactively adapting to climate change, thus, reducing their vulnerability to its impacts.}, }
@article {pmid36569398, year = {2022}, author = {Sohrabizadeh, S and Bahramzadeh, A and Hanafi-Bojd, AA}, title = {Climate Change and Gender: Mapping Drought and Gender Gap in Literacy and Employment Sections in Iran between 2011 and 2016.}, journal = {Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran}, volume = {36}, number = {}, pages = {146}, pmid = {36569398}, issn = {1016-1430}, abstract = {Background: Drought is one of the most frequent natural hazards in Iran. Gender analysis can highlight the different needs and capacities of men and women to manage drought hazards. Thus, the present study aimed to map drought and the gender gap in drought data based on the provincial zones in 2011 and 2016. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2 stages establishing a database and spatial analysis. Data mapping was done based on provincial divisions, sex-disaggregated distribution of literacy, and employment rate as well as drought patterns in Iran in 2011 and 2016 using ArcGIS software. Descriptive statistics were applied to analyze and report the sex-disaggregated literacy and employment data. Results: About 80.73% and 75.27% of women and 80.89% and 74.74% of men experienced severe and very severe droughts in 2011 and 2016, respectively. Gender inequality in the aspects of literacy and employment in drought-affected regions was found in 2011 and 2016. Conclusion: Community-based planning and management in regions exposed to climate change are suggested for reducing the consequences of climatic disasters such as droughts. Women need to be empowered and trained for innovative livelihood activities in rural and urban areas in Iran and other developing countries affected by long-term droughts.}, }
@article {pmid36569242, year = {2022}, author = {Hyland, CJ and Yates, EF and Broyles, JM}, title = {A Narrative Review of Plastic Surgery and Climate Change: Context and Considerations.}, journal = {Plastic and reconstructive surgery. Global open}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {e4703}, pmid = {36569242}, issn = {2169-7574}, abstract = {Climate change poses significant threats to human health and society. Although healthcare will bear a large burden of the downstream effects of climate change, the healthcare industry is simultaneously a major contributor to climate change. Within hospitals, surgery is one of the most energy-intensive practices. There is a growing body of literature describing ways to mitigate and adapt to climate change in surgery. However, there is a need to better understand the unique implications for each surgical subspecialty. This review contextualizes plastic and reconstructive surgery within the climate change discussion. In particular, this review highlights the specific ways in which plastic surgery may affect climate change and how climate change may affect plastic surgery. In light of growing public demand for change and greater alignment between industries and nations with regard to climate change solutions, we also offer a conceptual framework to guide further work in this burgeoning field of research.}, }
@article {pmid36568317, year = {2022}, author = {Brown, I and Berry, P}, title = {National Climate Change Risk Assessments to inform adaptation policy priorities and environmental sustainability outcomes: a knowledge systems perspective.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {175}, number = {3-4}, pages = {13}, pmid = {36568317}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {National Climate Change Risk Assessments (CCRAs) have a key role in informing priorities for adaptation policy but face significant challenges due to multiple facets of risk and adaptation. Issues are especially pronounced for meeting goals of environmental sustainability due to the complex dynamics of socio-ecological systems. In practice, a CCRA can therefore differ from its original conceptual blueprint. These challenges are explored from a knowledge systems perspective, focusing on the role of stakeholders/policymakers, risk descriptors, methods, evidence sources, and scientists. A UK case study evaluates recent developments (CCRA3) including identification of policy urgency through adaptation shortfalls and its application to the natural environment. Important science-policy issues are also highlighted regarding inclusion of opportunities, systemic risks, residual risks, and risk tolerance. A general conclusion is that CCRAs inevitably leave open questions which lead back to their evolving role in the science-policy interface. A knowledge systems perspective identifies CCRAs as open, adaptive, reflexive processes that help redefine interpretations of risk and adaptation, rather than just providing a specific policy-relevant product. This perspective identifies scope for progressive refinement of CCRAs to enhance collective science-policy adaptive capacity whilst also engaging wider society. For environmental sustainability, this open process can be used to iteratively redefine robust future pathways and system reference conditions that also better reflect evolving societal perceptions and tolerance on sustainability risk in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36566963, year = {2023}, author = {Ghimire, S and Shrestha, S and Hok, P and Heng, S and Nittivattanaon, V and Sabo, J}, title = {Integrated assessment of climate change and reservoir operation on flow-regime and fisheries of the Sekong river basin in Lao PDR and Cambodia.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {220}, number = {}, pages = {115087}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.115087}, pmid = {36566963}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Animals ; Cambodia ; *Rivers ; *Climate Change ; Fisheries ; Laos ; Fishes ; }, abstract = {This study assesses the cumulative impact of climate change and reservoir operation on flow regime and fisheries in the Sekong River Basin. Ensemble of five selected Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were used to project the future climate under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The projected future climate was used to simulate the future hydrology using the SWAT model while HEC-ResSim was utilized for reservoir simulation. Finally fish-flow relationship was developed to estimate the fish catch and productivity in future. Upon investigation we found that, Sekong River Basin is likely grow warmer and drier in future under climate change. The basin is expected to face 1.3-3.6 °C rise in mean annual temperature and receive 0-6% less annual rainfall in future. The wet season in the basin is anticipated to be drier (0% to -6%) while the dry season rainfall shows no particular trend (-3%-10%). Such a change in climate is likely to alter the mean annual flow in future between -3 and 5% at Attapeu, -6 to 2% at Ban Veunkhane, Lao PDR, and -7 to 1% at Siempang, Cambodia (basin outlet). Under climate change, we expect decrement in minimum flow but increment in the maximum flow while opposite is anticipated under reservoir operation. Operation of Xekaman 1 and Sekong 4A are likely to increase the minimum flow at river outlet by 32-59% and 13-18% respectively whereas maximum flow is expected to decrease by 28-5%. In addition, climate change is likely to have crucial impact on fisheries with up to 19% and 12% reduction in fish catches and fish productivity respectively. However, reservoirs tend to have negligible impact on fisheries.}, }
@article {pmid36566960, year = {2023}, author = {Martikainen, MV and Tossavainen, T and Hannukka, N and Roponen, M}, title = {Pollen, respiratory viruses, and climate change: Synergistic effects on human health.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {219}, number = {}, pages = {115149}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.115149}, pmid = {36566960}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Pollen ; Risk Factors ; *Virus Diseases/epidemiology ; *Viruses ; Allergens ; }, abstract = {In recent years, evidence of the synergistic effects of pollen and viruses on respiratory health has begun to accumulate. Pollen exposure is a known risk factor for the incidence and severity of respiratory viral infections. However, recent evidence suggests that pollen exposure may also inhibit or weaken viral infections. A comprehensive summary has not been made and a consensus on the synergistic health effects has not been reached. It is highly possible that climate change will increase the significance of pollen exposure as a cause of respiratory problems and, at the same time, affect the risk of infectious disease outbreaks. It is important to accurately assess how these two factors affect human health separately and concurrently. In this review article, for the first time, the data from previous studies are combined and reviewed and potential research gaps concerning the synergistic effects of pollen and viral exposure are identified.}, }
@article {pmid36566765, year = {2023}, author = {Richie, C and Kesselheim, AS and Jones, DS}, title = {Climate change and the prescription pad.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {401}, number = {10372}, pages = {178-179}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(22)02545-4}, pmid = {36566765}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Peripheral Arterial Disease ; }, }
@article {pmid36566588, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and El Adawy, M and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Malaudzi, FM and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Mohammad, SY and Sidibe, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {International journal of nursing studies}, volume = {138}, number = {}, pages = {104374}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2022.104374}, pmid = {36566588}, issn = {1873-491X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36565879, year = {2023}, author = {Motlaghzadeh, K and Eyni, A and Behboudian, M and Pourmoghim, P and Ashrafi, S and Kerachian, R and W Hipel, K}, title = {A multi-agent decision-making framework for evaluating water and environmental resources management scenarios under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {864}, number = {}, pages = {161060}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161060}, pmid = {36565879}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This paper introduces a hierarchical multi-agent decision-making framework for Water and Environmental Resources Management Scenarios (WERMSs) under uncertain conditions of climate change and complex agent characteristics. The proposed framework utilizes three Game Theory concepts: the Stackelberg, Bayesian (Incomplete), and Imperfect games, in order to incorporate the hierarchical structure of the agents and the temporal distribution and accuracy of information between them. The methodology is applied to the Zarrinehroud River Basin (ZRB), the largest hypersaline lake in the Middle East. The area of the lake has decreased dramatically (about 50 %) during past decades causing various environmental, social, and economic problems. WERMSs were evaluated using qualitative and quantitative hydrological, social, economic, and ecological criteria under different climate change scenarios. The proposed methodology provides equilibriums in the decision-making process while considering different climate change scenarios. Applying the selected WERM results in an accumulated value of 2995 million m[3] of water flow to the lake until 2049. Moreover, the lake's elevation reaches a new level of 1272.6 m above sea level at the end of the following 30 years, compared to the elevation of 1271.3 at the beginning of the evaluation period.}, }
@article {pmid36565865, year = {2023}, author = {Aidoo, OF and Souza, PGC and Silva, RS and Júnior, PAS and Picanço, MC and Heve, WK and Duker, RQ and Ablormeti, FK and Sétamou, M and Borgemeister, C}, title = {Modeling climate change impacts on potential global distribution of Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {864}, number = {}, pages = {160962}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160962}, pmid = {36565865}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Citrus ; *Climate Change ; Hemiptera ; Pest Control, Biological ; Plant Diseases ; Temperature ; *Wasps ; }, abstract = {The Asian citrus psyllid (ACP), Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae), is an efficient vector of "Candidatus Liberibacter" species, the causative agents implicated in citrus greening or huanglongbing (HLB). HLB is the most devastating citrus disease and has killed millions of citrus trees worldwide. Classical biological control using Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) against ACP has been successful in some regions. Climatic conditions are critical in determining suitable areas for the geographical distribution of T. radiata. However, paucity of information on climate change impacts on the global spread of T. radiata restricts international efforts to manage ACP with T. radiata. We investigated the potential global distribution of T. radiata using 317 native and non-native occurrence records and 20 environmental data sets (with correlation coefficients (|r| > 0.7)). Using the Maximum Entropy model, these data were analyzed for two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two time periods (2030s and 2050s). We showed that habitat suitability for T. radiata occurred in all continents except Antarctica. However, the highly suitable areas for T. radiata were found in parts of the Americas, Asia, Africa and Oceania. The climate suitable areas would increase until the 2050s. The predictions showed that mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important environmental variables that influenced the distribution of T. radiata. The model reliably predicted habitat suitability for T. radiata, which can be adapted in classical biological control programs to effectively manage ACP in an environmentally friendly manner.}, }
@article {pmid36565251, year = {2023}, author = {Drews, SJ and Wendel, S and Leiby, DA and Tonnetti, L and Ushiro-Lumb, I and O'Brien, SF and Lieshout-Krikke, RW and Bloch, EM and , }, title = {Climate change and parasitic risk to the blood supply.}, journal = {Transfusion}, volume = {63}, number = {3}, pages = {638-645}, doi = {10.1111/trf.17234}, pmid = {36565251}, issn = {1537-2995}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Parasites ; }, }
@article {pmid36564631, year = {2023}, author = {DeAngelo, J and Saenz, BT and Arzeno-Soltero, IB and Frieder, CA and Long, MC and Hamman, J and Davis, KA and Davis, SJ}, title = {Economic and biophysical limits to seaweed farming for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {45-57}, pmid = {36564631}, issn = {2055-0278}, support = {DE-AR0000920//DOE | Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy (Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy - U.S. Department of Energy)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Seaweed ; Carbon Dioxide ; Agriculture/methods ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets are driving interest in opportunities for biomass-based negative emissions and bioenergy, including from marine sources such as seaweed. Yet the biophysical and economic limits to farming seaweed at scales relevant to the global carbon budget have not been assessed in detail. We use coupled seaweed growth and technoeconomic models to estimate the costs of global seaweed production and related climate benefits, systematically testing the relative importance of model parameters. Under our most optimistic assumptions, sinking farmed seaweed to the deep sea to sequester a gigaton of CO2 per year costs as little as US$480 per tCO2 on average, while using farmed seaweed for products that avoid a gigaton of CO2-equivalent GHG emissions annually could return a profit of $50 per tCO2-eq. However, these costs depend on low farming costs, high seaweed yields, and assumptions that almost all carbon in seaweed is removed from the atmosphere (that is, competition between phytoplankton and seaweed is negligible) and that seaweed products can displace products with substantial embodied non-CO2 GHG emissions. Moreover, the gigaton-scale climate benefits we model would require farming very large areas (>90,000 km[2])-a >30-fold increase in the area currently farmed. Our results therefore suggest that seaweed-based climate benefits may be feasible, but targeted research and demonstrations are needed to further reduce economic and biophysical uncertainties.}, }
@article {pmid36564208, year = {2023}, author = {Junck, L and Malow, BA}, title = {Climate Change and Air Pollution: Neurologists Should Educate Themselves and Get Involved.}, journal = {Neurology}, volume = {100}, number = {10}, pages = {454-455}, doi = {10.1212/WNL.0000000000206754}, pmid = {36564208}, issn = {1526-632X}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Neurologists ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Air Pollutants ; Particulate Matter ; }, }
@article {pmid36563477, year = {2023}, author = {Mohammed, M and Wang, H}, title = {Climatic conditions drive vegetation patterns: A theoretical and practical evidence: Comments on "Impacts of climate change on vegetation pattern: Mathematical modelling and data analysis" by Sun et al. (2022).}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {44}, number = {}, pages = {89-90}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2022.12.008}, pmid = {36563477}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Ecosystem ; Data Analysis ; Temperature ; China ; }, }
@article {pmid36563443, year = {2023}, author = {Moore, D and Bach, V and Finkbeiner, M and Honkomp, T and Ahn, H and Sprenger, M and Froese, L and Gratzel, D}, title = {Offsetting environmental impacts beyond climate change: the Circular Ecosystem Compensation approach.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {329}, number = {}, pages = {117068}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117068}, pmid = {36563443}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Eutrophication ; Life Cycle Stages ; }, abstract = {Since the Paris Agreement entered into force, climate neutrality and associated compensation schemes are even more on the agenda of politics and companies. Challenges of existing offsetting schemes include the rather theoretical saving scenario and the limited scope of considered impacts. To address some of these limitations, this paper proposes the Circular Ecosystem Compensation (CEC) approach based on monetization of LCA results and Ecosystem Valuation. CEC consists of six steps: i) carrying out a life cycle assessment, ii) reducing the environmental impacts, iii) determining environmental costs applying monetization methods, iv) deriving the environmental value based on restoration costs methods, v) implementing the ecological restoration of ecosystems and vi) monitoring of the renaturation measures. Thus, CEC allows to offset a broad set of environmental impacts beyond climate change (e.g., acidification, eutrophication, land use, water use) in a real ecosystem by renaturation of degraded ecosystems. Environmental burdens and environmental benefits are balanced on a monetary basis, as the renaturation measures are monetized and used to compensate the monetized LCA results, e.g., of a product, organization or individual. In a case study, the implementation of the approach is presented to show the practical implementation of the CEC. The challenges of CEC include the integration of further impact categories, the availability of up-to-date and reliable monetization methods, the asynchrony and time-lag of the compensation from an ecosystem and biodiversity perspective and the proof of cost-efficiency of the renaturation measures. It is further discussed, if CEC can be a step beyond "climate neutrality" towards "environmental neutrality". The proposed approach should be further tested and is intended to foster progress in more comprehensive and robust offsetting of environmental impacts beyond climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36560944, year = {2022}, author = {Yang, G and Tian, J and Chen, J}, title = {Editorial: Soil microbes in polar region: Response, adaptation and mitigation of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1086822}, pmid = {36560944}, issn = {1664-302X}, }
@article {pmid36556385, year = {2022}, author = {Rasheed, A and Rasool, SG and Soriano, P and Estrelles, E and Gul, B and Hameed, A}, title = {Ecophysiological and Biochemical Responses Depicting Seed Tolerance to Osmotic Stresses in Annual and Perennial Species of Halopeplis in a Frame of Global Warming.}, journal = {Life (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {36556385}, issn = {2075-1729}, abstract = {Plant abundance and distribution are regulated by subtle changes in ecological factors, which are becoming more frequent under global climate change. Species with a higher tolerance to such changes, especially during early lifecycle stages, are highly likely to endure climate change. This study compared the germination adaptability of Halopeplis amplexicaulis and H. perfoliata, which differ in life-form and grow in different environments. Optimal conditions, tolerances and the biochemical responses of seeds to osmotic stresses were examined. Seeds of H. perfoliata germinated in a wider range of temperature regimes and were more tolerant to osmotic stresses than H. amplexicaulis seeds. Neither NaCl nor PEG treatment invoked the H2O2 content in germinating seeds of the tested species. Consequently, unaltered, or even decreased activities of H2O2 detoxification enzymes and non-enzymatic antioxidants were observed in germinating seeds in response to the aforementioned stresses. High and comparable levels of recovery from isotonic treatments, alongside a lack of substantial oxidative damage indicated that the osmotic stress, rather than the ionic toxicity, may be responsible for the germination inhibition. Hence, rainy periods, linked to water availability, may act as a key determinant for germination and H. perfoliata could be less affected by global warming owing to better germinability under high temperatures compared with H. amplexicaulis. Such studies involving biochemical analysis coupled with the germination ecology of congeneric species, which differ in life-form and occurrence are scarce, therefore are important in understanding the impacts of global changes on species abundance/distribution.}, }
@article {pmid36555057, year = {2022}, author = {Ouyang, X and Chen, A and Li, Y and Han, X and Lin, H}, title = {Predicting the Potential Distribution of Pine Wilt Disease in China under Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {36555057}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2019C02024//the Key Research and Development Program of Zhejiang Province/ ; }, abstract = {The primary culprits of pine wilt disease (PWD), an epidemic forest disease that significantly endangers the human environment and the world's forest resources, are pinewood nematodes (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus). The MaxEnt model has been used to predict and analyze the potential geographic spread of PWD in China under the effects of climate change and can serve as a foundation for high-efficiency monitoring, supervision, and prompt prevention and management. In this work, the MaxEnt model's criteria settings were optimized using data from 646 PWD infestation sites and seven climate variables from the ENMeval data package. It simulated and forecasted how PWD may be distributed under present and future (the 2050s and 2070s) climatic circumstances, and the key climate factors influencing the disease were examined. The area under AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) is 0.940 under the parameters, demonstrating the accuracy of the simulation. Under the current climate conditions, the moderately and highly suitable habitats of PWD are distributed in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan, and other provinces. The outcomes demonstrated that the fundamental climate variables influencing the PWD distribution were rainfall and temperature, specifically including maximum temperature of warmest month, mean temperature of driest quarter, coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of wettest quarter. The evaluation outcomes of the MaxEnt model revealed that the total and highly suitable areas of PWD will expand substantially by both 2050 and 2070, and the potential distribution of PWD will have a tendency to spread towards high altitudes and latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid36554991, year = {2022}, author = {Xue, Y and Lin, C and Wang, Y and Liu, W and Wan, F and Zhang, Y and Ji, L}, title = {Predicting Climate Change Effects on the Potential Distribution of Two Invasive Cryptic Species of the Bemisia tabaci Species Complex in China.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {36554991}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {WX145-CAS-WX2021PY-0202//14th Five-year Network Security and Informatization Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; XDA19050200//Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1) and Mediterranean (MED) are two invasive cryptic species of the Bemisia tabaci species complex (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) that cause serious damage to agricultural and horticultural crops worldwide. To explore the possible impact of climate change on their distribution, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential distribution ranges of MEAM1 and MED in China under current and four future climate scenarios, using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, over four time periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). The distribution ranges of MEAM1 and MED were extensive and similar in China under current climatic conditions, while their moderately and highly suitable habitat ranges differed. Under future climate scenarios, the areas of suitable habitat of different levels for MEAM1 and MED were predicted to increase to different degrees. However, the predicted expansion of suitable habitats varied between them, suggesting that these invasive cryptic species respond differently to climate change. Our results illustrate the difference in the effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of different cryptic species of B. tabaci and provide insightful information for further forecasting and managing the two invasive cryptic species in China.}, }
@article {pmid36554985, year = {2022}, author = {Standen, JC and Spencer, J and Lee, GW and Van Buskirk, J and Matthews, V and Hanigan, I and Boylan, S and Jegasothy, E and Breth-Petersen, M and Morgan, GG}, title = {Correction: Standen et al. Aboriginal Population and Climate Change in Australia: Implications for Health and Adaptation Planning. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 7502.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {36554985}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {In the original publication [...].}, }
@article {pmid36554974, year = {2022}, author = {Bao, S and Yang, F}, title = {Influences of Climate Change and Land Use Change on the Habitat Suitability of Bharal in the Sanjiangyuan District, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {36554974}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; Sheep ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Animals, Wild ; China ; }, abstract = {One of the biggest dangers to the degradation of biodiversity worldwide is climate change. Its oscillations in the future could result in potential alterations to species populations and habitat structure. With Sanjiangyuan District as the study site, an uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) was utilized to investigate the number and location of the bharal (Pseudois nayaur). The Maximum Entropy model and the Minimum Cumulative Resistance model (MaxEnt-MCR) were coupled to simulate the distribution of wildlife. On this basis, the future geographical distribution of bharal under different climate scenarios was simulated, and the ecological corridor and habitat centroid of bharal were revealed. The results showed that the suitable area of the bharal habitat was 4669 km[2], which was mainly concentrated in the Maduo, Qumalai, and Gonghe counties. The potential distribution of the species under different future climate scenarios had a decreasing trend. Under the SSP-245 scenario, the habitat area of bharal in 2030 and 2050 decreased by 25.68 and 44.61% compared with the present situation and cumulatively decreased by 1199 and 2083 km[2], respectively. Under the SSP-585 scenario, the habitat area of bharal in 2030 and 2050 decreased by 27.5 and 48.44%, with a total reduction of 1284 and 2262 km[2], respectively. Furthermore, a complete loss of habitat was predicted in Gonghe County by 2050. In addition, it was observed that the landscape structure in Sanjiangyuan District would be more fragmented and complex. The continued climate change will seriously affect the habitat distribution of this species. Therefore, preventive measures, such as protecting habitat areas and establishing ecological corridors for bharal, should be implemented in the Sanjiangyuan District. Such measures should not focus solely on the potential degradation but should also be extended to include potential distribution areas for future migration.}, }
@article {pmid36554966, year = {2022}, author = {Al-Jawaldeh, A and Nabhani, M and Taktouk, M and Nasreddine, L}, title = {Climate Change and Nutrition: Implications for the Eastern Mediterranean Region.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {36554966}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Child ; Infant ; Humans ; Female ; *Nutritional Status ; Climate Change ; Mediterranean Region/epidemiology ; *Malnutrition/epidemiology ; Health Status ; }, abstract = {The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is considered among the world's most vulnerable to the dire impacts of climate change. This review paper aims at (1) characterizing climate change in countries of the EMR; (2) examining the potential effects of climate change on the nutritional and health status of the population; and (3) identifying the most vulnerable population groups. The paper explored several climate change indicators including daily temperatures, extreme temperature, daily precipitation, extreme precipitation (flooding, drought, storms, etc.), humidity, CO2 concentrations and sea surface temperature in EMR countries. Findings suggest that climate change will exert a significant adverse effect on water and food security and showed that the nutritional status of the population, which is already characterized by the triple burden of malnutrition, is likely to worsen via three main pathways mediated by climate change, namely, its impact on food security, care and health. Women, infants, children, those living in poor households and those experiencing displacement will be among the most vulnerable to the nutritional impacts of climate change. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations from the Initiative on Climate Action and Nutrition, which can support the region in tackling the critical nexus of climate change and nutrition.}, }
@article {pmid36554920, year = {2022}, author = {Falak, F and Ayub, F and Zahid, Z and Sarfraz, Z and Sarfraz, A and Robles-Velasco, K and Cherrez-Ojeda, I}, title = {Indicators of Climate Change, Geospatial and Analytical Mapping of Trends in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh: An Observational Study.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {36554920}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Pakistan ; Bangladesh ; *Nitrogen Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; India ; }, abstract = {The year 2022 has served as a recall for the impact that climate change has in the South Asian region, which is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate shock. With a paucity of climate-based and geospatial observational studies in South Asia, this paper (i) links power sectors and carbon dioxide emissions, (ii) maps nitrogen dioxide density across three countries (Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh), (iii) understands electricity generation trends and projects weather changes through 2100. We monitored data monitored between 1995 and 2021. The following databases were used: the International Energy Agency, the World Bank, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization. Raw data was obtained for climate indicators, which were entered into Microsoft Excel. Geospatial trends were generated in the ArcGIS geostatistical tool by adopting the ordinary kriging method to interpolate and create continuous surfaces depicting the concentration of nitrogen dioxide in the three countries. We found increased usage of coal and fossil fuels in three countries (Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh). Both were significant contributors to carbon dioxide emissions. The geographic localities in South Asia were densely clouded with nitrogen dioxide as reported with the tropospheric column mapping. There are expected to be increased days with a heat index >35 °C, and consecutive dry days from 2020 and 2100. We also found increased chances of flooding in certain regions across the three countries. This study monitored climate change indicators and projects between 1995 and 2100. Lastly, we make recommendations to improve the relationship of the environment and living beings.}, }
@article {pmid36554919, year = {2022}, author = {Boncu, &#x218; and Prundeanu, O and Holman, AC and Popușoi, SA}, title = {Believing in or Denying Climate Change for Questionable Reasons: Generic Conspiracist Beliefs, Personality, and Climate Change Perceptions of Romanian University Students.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {36554919}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Romania ; Universities ; *Personality ; Drugs, Generic ; Students ; }, abstract = {People's perceptions of climate change represent a growing concern, especially when these perceptions entail the denial of climate change. Past studies have highlighted the detrimental role of conspiracist beliefs concerning climate change regarding people's perceptions on this matter. However, the effects of generic conspiracy beliefs and the different types of beliefs determining skepticism about climate change, as well as that of an individual's personality, are still an open area of inquiry. Our cross-sectional study (N = 842) explored the relationships between the degree to which people hold different generic conspiracy beliefs, their personality characteristics (as defined within the Big Five taxonomy), and climate change beliefs (i.e., in its occurrence and anthropogenic causation). Results indicated common predictors of these dimensions of climate change beliefs, specifically three of the five types of generic conspiracy beliefs, extraversion, agreeability, and intellect/imagination as personality factors. While conspiracy beliefs related to personal well-being emerged as related to climate change skepticism, those in government malfeasance and information control were found to be associated with more acceptance of climate change and its anthropogenic causation. These findings reveal a mixed pattern of relationships between different conspiracist beliefs and climate change perceptions and suggest the complex psychological and ideological underpinnings of the attitudes towards climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36554749, year = {2022}, author = {Sanni, O and Salami, B and Oluwasina, F and Ojo, F and Kennedy, M}, title = {Climate Change and African Migrant Health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {36554749}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Emigrants and Immigrants ; African People ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change exacerbates existing sociopolitical and economic vulnerabilities, undermining livelihoods, inflating the risk of conflict, and making it difficult for people to remain stable. In 2019, around 25 million new displacements occurred due to natural disasters. This review aims to summarize the existing evidence regarding the impact of climate change on the health of African immigrants.<br><br>METHODS: Nine databases were systematically searched using a strategy developed in collaboration with a subject librarian. Potentially relevant articles were identified, screened, and reviewed by at least two reviewers, with a third reviewer resolving conflicts where necessary. Data were extracted from relevant articles using a standardized form.<br><br>RESULTS: Seven studies (three cross-sectional, two qualitative, one cohort, and one need assessment report) were identified; they included different categories of African migrants and reported on various aspects of health. The included articles report on climate change, e.g., flooding, drought, and excess heat, resulting in respiratory illness, mental health issues, malnutrition, and premature mortality among African immigrants.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This review suggests climate change adversely affects the physical, mental, and social health of African immigrants. It also highlights a knowledge gap in evidence related to the impact of climate change on the health of African immigrants.}, }
@article {pmid36554567, year = {2022}, author = {Ramalho, M and Ferreira, JC and Jóia Santos, C}, title = {Climate Change Adaptation Strategies at a Local Scale: The Portuguese Case Study.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {36554567}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Portugal ; *Acclimatization ; Cities ; }, abstract = {Coastal areas are home to more than 2 billion people around the globe and, as such, are especially vulnerable to climate change consequences. Climate change adaptation has proven to be more effective on a local scale, contributing to a bottom-up approach to the problems related to the changing climate. Portugal has approximately 2000 km of coastline, with 75% of the population living along the coast. Therefore, this research had the main objective of understanding adaptation processes at a local scale, using Portuguese coastal municipalities as a case study. To achieve this goal, document analysis and a questionnaire to coastal municipalities were applied, and the existence of measures rooted in nature-based solutions, green infrastructures, and community-based adaptation was adopted as a variable. The main conclusion from this research is that 87% of the municipalities that answered the questionnaire have climate change adaptation strategies implemented or in development. Moreover, it was possible to conclude that 90% of the municipalities are familiar with the concept of nature-based solutions and all the municipalities with adaptation strategies include green infrastructure. However, it was also possible to infer that community-based adaptation is a concept that most municipalities do not know about or undervalue.}, }
@article {pmid36554551, year = {2022}, author = {Lai, K and Yang, Y and Na, Y and Wang, H}, title = {The Relationship between Bullshit Receptivity and Willingness to Share Misinformation about Climate Change: The Moderating Role of Pregnancy.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {36554551}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; Pregnancy ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; Confidentiality ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Widespread dissemination of misinformation about climate change has seriously harmed the health of future generations and the world. Moreover, misinformation-sharing behaviors exhibit strong individual characteristics. However, research is limited on the antecedents of and mechanism underlying the willingness to share misinformation about climate change in terms of individual personalities and physiological states. Accordingly, we surveyed 582 women (224 pregnant) using a questionnaire and constructed a moderated mediation model to explore the relationships among individuals' bullshit receptivity, belief in misinformation about climate change, willingness to share misinformation about climate change, and pregnancy. The results showed that: (1) bullshit receptivity is positively related to the willingness to share misinformation about climate change; (2) belief in misinformation about climate change mediates the relationship between bullshit receptivity and willingness to share misinformation about climate change; and (3) for individuals with higher bullshit receptivity, pregnancy exacerbates the detrimental effects of bullshit receptivity on belief in misinformation about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36554518, year = {2022}, author = {Jia, K and Zhang, W and Xie, B and Xue, X and Zhang, F and Han, D}, title = {Does Climate Change Increase Crop Water Requirements of Winter Wheat and Summer Maize in the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River Basin?.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {36554518}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Triticum/physiology ; *Zea mays/physiology ; Climate Change ; Rivers ; Crops, Agricultural ; Water ; China ; }, abstract = {With increasing water resources stress under climate change, it is of great importance to deeply understand the spatio-temporal variation of crop water requirements and their response to climate change for achieving better water resources management and grain production. However, the quantitative evaluation of climate change impacts on crop water requirements and the identification of determining factors should be further explored to reveal the influencing mechanism and actual effects thoroughly. In this study, the water requirements of winter wheat and summer maize from 1981 to 2019 in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin were estimated based on the Penman-Monteith model and crop coefficient method using daily meteorological data. Combined with trends test, sensitivity and contribution analysis, the impacts of different meteorological factors on crop water requirement variation were explored, and the dominant factors were then identified. The results indicated that the temperature increased significantly (a significance level of 0.05 was considered), whereas the sunshine duration, relative humidity and wind speed decreased significantly from 1981 to 2019 in the study area. The total water requirements of winter wheat and summer maize presented a significant decreasing trend (-1.36 mm/a) from 1981 to 2019 with a multi-year average value of 936.7 mm. The crop water requirements of winter wheat was higher than that of summer maize, with multi-year average values of 546.6 mm and 390.1 mm, respectively. In terms of spatial distribution patterns, the crop water requirement in the north was generally higher than that in the south. The water requirements of winter wheat and summer maize were most sensitive to wind speed, and were less sensitive to the minimum temperature and relative humidity. Wind speed was the leading factor of crop water requirement variation with the highest contribution rate of 116.26% among the considered meteorological factors. The results of this study will provide important support for strengthening the capacity to cope with climate change and realizing sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.}, }
@article {pmid36554413, year = {2022}, author = {Allias Omar, SM and Wan Ariffin, WNH and Mohd Sidek, L and Basri, H and Moh Khambali, MH and Ahmed, AN}, title = {Hydrological Analysis of Batu Dam, Malaysia in the Urban Area: Flood and Failure Analysis Preparing for Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {36554413}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Floods ; *Climate Change ; Malaysia ; Reproducibility of Results ; Probability ; }, abstract = {Extensive hydrological analysis is carried out to estimate floods for the Batu Dam, a hydropower dam located in the urban area upstream of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The study demonstrates the operational state and reliability of the dam structure based on hydrologic assessment of the dam. The surrounding area is affected by heavy rainfall and climate change every year, which increases the probability of flooding and threatens a dense population downstream of the dam. This study evaluates the adequacy of dam spillways by considering the latest Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) values of the concerned dams. In this study, the PMP estimations are applied using comparison of both statistical method by Hershfield and National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM) Envelope Curve as input for PMF establishments. Since the PMF is derived from the PMP values, the highest design flood standard can be applied to any dam, ensuring inflow into the reservoirs and limiting the risk of dam structural failure. Hydrologic modeling using HEC-HMS provides PMF values for the Batu dam. Based on the results, Batu Dam is found to have 200.6 m[3]/s spillway discharge capacities. Under PMF conditions, the Batu dam will not face overtopping since the peak outflow of the reservoir level is still below the crest level of the dam.}, }
@article {pmid36553731, year = {2022}, author = {Tajudeen, TT and Omotayo, A and Ogundele, FO and Rathbun, LC}, title = {The Effect of Climate Change on Food Crop Production in Lagos State.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {36553731}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {Climate change is set to be particularly disruptive in poor agricultural communities. This study examines the effects of, and farmer's perceptions of, climate change on farming practices for cassava and maize in Lagos, Nigeria. Analysis of weather data from 1998 to 2018 (the most recent available) reveals little impact on cassava yield but a significant impact on maize yield. Furthermore, survey results indicate that farmers in this area are currently implementing techniques to adapt to changes in climate based on the type of crop grown. Agriculture in Lagos, Nigeria, is largely rain-fed and climate change negatively impacts crop productivity by decreasing crop yield and soil fertility, limiting the availability of soil water, increasing soil erosion, and contributing to the spread of pests. A decline in crop production due to climate change may be further exasperated by a lack of access to farming technology that reduces over-reliance on the rain-fed farming system and subsistence agriculture. This study indicates that there is a need for initiatives to motivate young and older farmers through access to credits, irrigation facilities, and innovative climate change adaptive strategies.}, }
@article {pmid36552317, year = {2022}, author = {Mu, T and He, D and Zhu, R and Sui, X and Chen, Y}, title = {Changes in the Suitable Habitats of Three Endemic Fishes to Climate Change in Tibet.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {36552317}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {No. XDA20050204//the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; No. 2019QZKK0304//the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition Program/ ; No. 2019QZKK05010102//the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition Program/ ; No. 31900374//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {As one of the most sensitive regions to global climate change, Tibet is subject to remarkable changes in biota over the past decades, including endemic fish species. However, no study has attempted to predict the changes in the distribution of Tibetan fishes, leaving a great blank for aquatic conservation in Tibet. Based on the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt), this study predicted the changes in the suitable habitats of three endemic fish species, including two species mainly inhabiting the rivers (Glyptosternon maculatum, Oxygymnocypris stewartii) and one species mainly inhabiting lakes (Gymnocypris selincuoensis) in Tibet under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) under two future scenarios (2050 and 2090), and explored the impact of the barrier effects of hydropower projects on the suitable habitats of fish. The results showed that under the four scenarios, the net change in the suitable habitats of the G. maculatum was negative (-2.0--18.8%), while the suitable habitats of the O. stewartii and G. selincuoensis would be expanded, with the net change of 60.0-238.3% and 46.4-56.9%, respectively. Under different scenarios, the suitable habitats of the three species had a tendency to migrate to a higher elevation, and the largest expansion in the range of migration was projected to occur under the 2090-RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, due to the impact of the hydropower projects, the ability of G. maculatum to obtain new suitable habitats from climate change would be reduced by 2.0-8.1%, which was less than the loss induced by climate change (5.5-25.1%), while the suitable habitats of O. stewartii would be reduced by 3.0-9.7%, which was more than the impact of climate change (about 1%). The results of this study have guiding significance for the conservation and management of fish resources diversity in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin and Siling Co basin of Tibet, and also provide a reference for the coordination and scientific planning of hydropower projects in Tibet.}, }
@article {pmid36549538, year = {2023}, author = {da Silva, CRB and Beaman, JE and Youngblood, JP and Kellermann, V and Diamond, SE}, title = {Vulnerability to climate change increases with trophic level in terrestrial organisms.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {865}, number = {}, pages = {161049}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161049}, pmid = {36549538}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; Biological Evolution ; }, abstract = {The resilience of ecosystem function under global climate change is governed by individual species vulnerabilities and the functional groups they contribute to (e.g. decomposition, primary production, pollination, primary, secondary and tertiary consumption). Yet it remains unclear whether species that contribute to different functional groups, which underpin ecosystem function, differ in their vulnerability to climate change. We used existing upper thermal limit data across a range of terrestrial species (N = 1701) to calculate species warming margins (degrees distance between a species upper thermal limit and the maximum environmental temperature they inhabit), as a metric of climate change vulnerability. We examined whether species that comprise different functional groups exhibit differential vulnerability to climate change, and if vulnerability trends change across geographic space while considering evolutionary history. Primary producers had the broadest warming margins across the globe (μ = 18.72 °C) and tertiary consumers had the narrowest warming margins (μ = 9.64 °C), where vulnerability tended to increase with trophic level. Warming margins had a nonlinear relationship (second-degree polynomial) with absolute latitude, where warming margins were narrowest at about 33°, and were broader at lower and higher absolute latitudes. Evolutionary history explained significant variation in species warming margins, as did the methodology used to estimate species upper thermal limits. We investigated if variation in body mass across the trophic levels could explain why higher trophic level organisms had narrower warming margins than lower trophic level organisms, however, we did not find support for this hypothesis. This study provides a critical first step in linking individual species vulnerabilities with whole ecosystem responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36549530, year = {2023}, author = {Guo, Y and Zhao, Z and Zhu, F and Gao, B}, title = {The impact of global warming on the potential suitable planting area of Pistacia chinensis is limited.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {864}, number = {}, pages = {161007}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161007}, pmid = {36549530}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Pistacia ; Climate Change ; China ; Ecosystem ; Soil ; Crops, Agricultural ; }, abstract = {Pistacia chinensis Bunge. is one of the main woody oil crops with a large artificial planting area in China and has important economic and ecological value. Here, based on 237 occurrence data and 22 environmental variables, we explored the potential planting area of P. chinensis in China in the present and future climate change scenarios by using a comprehensive model method. To fully consider the potential planting area of P. chinensis under specific climate change conditions and the limitations of soil conditions, we separately built two niche models to simulate the climate niche and soil demand niche, and then used the intersection of the two models as the result of the comprehensive habitat suitability model, finally, we used land-use data to filter the CHS model result. Our results showed, that under the baseline condition, the potential planting area of P. chinensis covers approximately 0.74 × 10[6] km[2] in China. The future projection showed that the impact of global warming on the potentially suitable planting area of P. chinensis is limited, and most of the existing suitable habitats are not affected by climate change. With increasing temperature, the potential planting area will expand northward and slightly contract in the south margin, and its area will be slightly increased. Therefore, this species has great planting potential in China and should be given priority in the future afforestation plan.}, }
@article {pmid36548924, year = {2022}, author = {Rahimi, M and Fatemi, F and Rezaei Mohammdi, Z}, title = {Impacts of climate change on occupational health indicators in the three climatic regions of Iran.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-12}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2022.2158179}, pmid = {36548924}, issn = {1369-1619}, abstract = {Climate change has increased the exposure risk of workers to occupational health risk factors and diseases. This study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on the occupational health indicators at the workplaces in Iran. This study was conducted during 2021 in three climatic regions of Iran. Required data was collected from Health Deputies of Medical Universities and Iran Meteorological Organization. Stepwise linear regression model used for data analysis and predictions were done based on three scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 during the period of 2021-2100. This indicated 2.6 and 2.9 times higher percentage of workers who were exposed to heat stress and Ultra Violet (UV) radiation, respectively, in the provinces understudy. This study suggests a holistic approach to address potential impacts of climate change on workers' health and safety that would benefit in making decisions on climate-related planning and developing the adaptation strategies at workplaces.}, }
@article {pmid36548686, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, G and Zhang, D and Khan, J and Guo, J and Feng, Q and Sun, Y and Li, B and Wu, Y and Wu, Z and Zheng, X}, title = {Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of a Neglected Arboviruses Vector (Armigeres subalbatus) in China.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {36548686}, issn = {2414-6366}, support = {2020YFC1200100//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 82002168//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 82072308//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 20201192//the 6th Nuclear Energy R&amp;D Project/ ; 22qntd4801//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central University/ ; }, abstract = {The geographic boundaries of arboviruses continue to expand, posing a major health threat to millions of people around the world. This expansion is related to the availability of effective vectors and suitable habitats. Armigeres subalbatus (Coquillett, 1898), a common and neglected species, is of increasing interest given its potential vector capacity for Zika virus. However, potential distribution patterns and the underlying driving factors of Ar. subalbatus remain unknown. In the current study, detailed maps of their potential distributions were developed under both the current as well as future climate change scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) based on CMIP6 data, employing the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the distribution of the Ar. subalbatus was mainly affected by temperature. Mean diurnal range was the strongest predictor in shaping the distribution of Ar. subalbatus, with an 85.2% contribution rate. By the 2050s and 2070s, Ar. subalbatus will have a broader potential distribution across China. There are two suitable expansion types under climate change in the 2050s and 2070s. The first type is continuous distribution expansion, and the second type is sporadic distribution expansion. Our comprehensive analysis of Ar. subalbatus’s suitable distribution areas shifts under climate change and provides useful and insightful information for developing management strategies for future arboviruses.}, }
@article {pmid36547743, year = {2023}, author = {Andreasson, F and Nord, A and Nilsson, J&#xc5;}, title = {Variation in breeding phenology in response to climate change in two passerine species.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {201}, number = {1}, pages = {279-285}, pmid = {36547743}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {2016-04240//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det/ ; 2020-04686//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det/ ; 2017-39034//Kungliga Fysiografiska S&#xe4;llskapet i Lund/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Oviposition ; Reproduction/physiology ; Seasons ; *Songbirds/physiology ; *Temperature ; *Nesting Behavior/physiology ; }, abstract = {Increasingly warmer springs have caused phenological shifts in both plants and animals. In birds, it is well established that mean laying date has advanced to match the earlier food peak. We know less about changes in the distribution of egg-laying dates within a population and the environmental variables that determine this variation. This could be an important component of how populations respond to climate change. We, therefore, used laying date and environmental data from 39 years (1983-2021) to determine how climate change affected laying date variation in blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and marsh tits (Poecile palustris), two sympatric passerines with different life histories. Both species advanced mean laying date (0.19-0.24 days per year) and mean laying date showed a negative relationship with maximum spring temperature in both blue and marsh tits. In springs with no clear temperature increase during the critical time window (the time-window in which mean laying date was most sensitive to temperature) start of breeding in blue tits was distributed over a longer part of the season. However, there was no such pattern in marsh tits. Our findings suggest that temperature change, and not necessarily absolute temperature, can shape the variation in breeding phenology in a species-specific manner, possibly linked to variation in life-history strategies. This is an important consideration when predicting how climate change affects timing of breeding within a population.}, }
@article {pmid36546650, year = {2023}, author = {Glicksman, RL}, title = {Protecting the Public Health with the Inflation Reduction Act - Provisions Affecting Climate Change and Its Health Effects.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {388}, number = {1}, pages = {84-88}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMms2212981}, pmid = {36546650}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Inflation, Economic/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Public Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid36546499, year = {2022}, author = {Michael, GC and Dankyau, M}, title = {Climate change and primary health care in Sahelian Kano, Nigeria.}, journal = {African journal of primary health care &amp; family medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-e2}, pmid = {36546499}, issn = {2071-2936}, mesh = {Humans ; Nigeria ; *Climate Change ; Qualitative Research ; *Primary Health Care ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is a global phenomenon that impacts several aspects of human existence. The Sustainable Development Goal 13 implores stakeholders to take action to mitigate the effects of CC. However, its impact on health, particularly primary health care, has not been thoroughly studied. Here, we share anecdotal experiences of the impact of CC on health and primary care presentations in Kano, Northwest, Nigeria. We observed consistent clinical presentations logically associated with high temperatures and excessive flooding in certain months of the year. Presentations range from skin and water-borne diseases to malnutrition and stress-related disorders. Our experience in Kano, Nigeria could be a valuable exposition of the diversity of the impact of CC on primary health care presentation in Africa, considering geographical and cultural differences. It also exposes the paucity of data regarding the impact of CC on primary care activities in Africa.Contribution: In conclusion, CC has potential impacts on primary health care and practice. The full implications of CC on this vital level of care will require future research (quantitative and qualitative studies). This will help strategic intervention planning by stakeholders.}, }
@article {pmid36546141, year = {2022}, author = {Li, T and Wang, Y and Wang, B and Ting, M and Ding, Y and Sun, Y and He, C and Yang, G}, title = {Distinctive South and East Asian monsoon circulation responses to global warming.}, journal = {Science bulletin}, volume = {67}, number = {7}, pages = {762-770}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2021.12.001}, pmid = {36546141}, issn = {2095-9281}, mesh = {El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; *Global Warming ; Oceans and Seas ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is the most energetic circulation system. Projecting its future change is critical for the mitigation and adaptation of billions of people living in the region. There are two important components within the ASM: South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Although current state-of-the-art climate models projected increased precipitation in both SASM and EASM due to the increase of atmospheric moisture, their circulation changes differ markedly-A robust strengthening (weakening) of EASM (SASM) circulation was projected. By separating fast and slow processes in response to increased CO2 radiative forcing, we demonstrate that EASM circulation strengthening is attributed to the fast land warming and associated Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing. In contrast, SASM circulation weakening is primarily attributed to an El Niño-like oceanic warming pattern in the tropical Pacific and associated suppressed precipitation over the Maritime Continent.}, }
@article {pmid36544879, year = {2022}, author = {Zulfiqar, F and Moosa, A and Nazir, MM and Ferrante, A and Ashraf, M and Nafees, M and Chen, J and Darras, A and Siddique, KHM}, title = {Biochar: An emerging recipe for designing sustainable horticulture under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1018646}, pmid = {36544879}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The interest in sustainable horticulture has recently increased, given anthropogenic climate change. The increasing global population will exacerbate the climate change situation induced by human activities. This will elevate global food demands and the vulnerability of horticultural systems, with severe concerns related to natural resource availability and usage. Sustainable horticulture involves adopting eco-friendly strategies to boost yields while maintaining environmental conservation. Biochar (BC), a carbon-rich material, is widely used in farming to improve soil physical and chemical properties and as an organic substitute for peat in growing media. BC amendments to soil or growing media improve seedling growth, increase photosynthetic pigments, and enhances photosynthesis, thus improving crop productivity. Soil BC incorporation improves abiotic and biotic stress tolerance, which are significant constraints in horticulture. BC application also improves disease control to an acceptable level or enhance plant resistance to pathogens. Moreover, BC amendments in contaminated soil decrease the uptake of potentially hazardous metals, thus minimizing their harmful effects on humans. This review summarizes the most recent knowledge related to BC use in sustainable horticulture. This includes the effect of BC on enhancing horticultural crop production and inducing resistance to major abiotic and biotic stresses. It also discuss major gaps and future directions for exploiting BC technology.}, }
@article {pmid36544832, year = {2022}, author = {Al-Atroush, ME}, title = {Structural behavior of the geothermo-electrical asphalt pavement: A critical review concerning climate change.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e12107}, pmid = {36544832}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Particularly for asphalt pavement, where the temperature is a crucial driver in selecting construction materials, premature infrastructure failure and higher maintenance costs might be highly expected with the recently witnessed dramatic changes in climate. Numerous studies highlighted how the recent climate change might result in hazards to transportation infrastructure and affect all types of transportation modes. On the flip side, flexible pavement also contributes to global warming; various studies referred to the significant emissions percentages released by asphalt pavement upon subjection to solar radiation. With that in mind, several studies showed that the environmentally-friendly geothermal systems that mainly depend on heat exchanging with the soil have positive influences on reducing energy consumption, melting the ice on roadways in cold climates, or reducing the ambient temperature and the induced latent heat from the pavement in hot climates. However, very limited studies explored the influence of those geothermal systems on the structural behavior of the pavement concerning the associated distresses with extreme climate changes. In this paper, a critical review concerning climate change has been performed to investigate the structural performance and the associated distress of both conventional and geothermal asphalt pavement. This review underlines several advantageous physical and mechanical characteristics of geothermal pavement, which may recommend this system as a worthwhile alternative to conventional asphalt pavement. The paper also identified future research needs to overcome the shortcomings associated with the structural performance of the geothermo-electrical asphalt pavement.}, }
@article {pmid36544823, year = {2022}, author = {Belay, A and Oludhe, C and Mirzabaev, A and Recha, JW and Berhane, Z and Osano, PM and Demissie, T and Olaka, LA and Solomon, D}, title = {Knowledge of climate change and adaptation by smallholder farmers: evidence from southern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e12089}, pmid = {36544823}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change has the greatest negative impact on low-income countries, which burdens agricultural systems. Climate change and extreme weather events have caused Ethiopia's agricultural production to decline and exacerbated food insecurity over the last few decades. This study investigates whether farmers' awareness and perceptions of climate change play a role in climate change adaptation using climate-smart agricultural practices. To collect data, 385 households in Southern Ethiopia were sampled using a multistage sampling. A Heckman probit two-stage selection model was applied to investigate the factors influencing farmers' perceptions to climate change and adaptation measures through adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices, complemented with key informant interviews and focused group discussions. The results indicated that most farmers (81.80%) perceived that the local climate is changing, with 71.9% reporting increased temperature and 53.15% reporting decreasing rainfall distribution. Therefore, farmers attempted to apply some adaptation practices, including soil and water conservation with biological measures, improved crop varieties, agroforestry, improved breeds, cut and carry system, controlled grazing, and residue incorporation. The empirical results revealed that farmers adaptation to climate change through adoptions of CSA practices was significantly influenced by education, family size, gender, landholding size, farming experience, access to climate information, training received, social membership, livestock ownership, farm income and extension services. The study found that farmers' perceptions of climate change and variability were significantly influenced by their age, level of education, farming experience, and access to climate information, hence, the need to focus on enhancing the accuracy of weather information, strengthening extension services, and considering a gender-sensitive adaptation approach toward improving farmers' knowledge and aspirations. Agricultural policies should support the efforts of farmers to increase the reliance on climate risk and alleviate farmers' difficulties in adopting climate-smart agriculture practices.}, }
@article {pmid36544194, year = {2022}, author = {Bhattarai, S and Blackburn, JK and Ryan, SJ}, title = {Malaria transmission in Nepal under climate change: anticipated shifts in extent and season, and comparison with risk definitions for intervention.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {390}, pmid = {36544194}, issn = {1475-2875}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; *Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology ; *Anopheles ; Climate Change ; Seasons ; Nepal/epidemiology ; Mosquito Vectors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate and climate change affect the spatial pattern and seasonality of malaria risk. Season lengths and spatial extents of mapped current and future malaria transmission suitability predictions for Nepal were assessed for a combination of malaria vector and parasites: Anopheles stephensi and Plasmodium falciparum (ASPF) and An. stephensi and Plasmodium vivax (ASPV) and compared with observed estimates of malaria risk in Nepal.<br><br>METHODS: Thermal bounds of malaria transmission suitability for baseline (1960-1990) and future climate projections (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2030 and 2050) were extracted from global climate models and mapped for Nepal. Season length and spatial extent of suitability between baseline and future climate scenarios for ASPF and ASPV were compared using the Warren's I metric. Official 2010 DoHS risk districts (DRDs) and 2021 DoHS risk wards (DRWs), and spatiotemporal incidence trend clusters (ITCs) were overlaid on suitability season length and extent maps to assess agreement, and potential mismatches.<br><br>RESULTS: Shifts in season length and extent of malaria transmission suitability in Nepal are anticipated under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2030 and 2050, compared to baseline climate. The changes are broadly consistent across both future climate scenarios for ASPF and ASPV. There will be emergence of suitability and increasing length of season for both ASPF and ASPV and decreasing length of season for ASPV by 2050. The emergence of suitability will occur in low and no-risk DRDs and outside of high and moderate-risk DRWs, season length increase will occur across all DRD categories, and outside of high and moderate-risk DRWs. The high and moderate risk DRWs of 2021 fall into ITCs with decreasing trend.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas of Nepal where malaria transmission suitability will emerge, disappear, increase, and decrease in the future. However, most of these areas are anticipated outside of the government's current and previously designated high and moderate-risk areas, and thus outside the focus of vector control interventions. Public health officials could use these anticipated changing areas of malaria risk to inform vector control interventions for eliminating malaria from the country, and to prevent malaria resurgence.}, }
@article {pmid36544010, year = {2023}, author = {Prillaman, M}, title = {Climate-change content shrinks in US university textbooks.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {613}, number = {7943}, pages = {228}, pmid = {36544010}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Universities/history ; *Textbooks as Topic/history ; United States ; History, 21st Century ; }, }
@article {pmid36543358, year = {2022}, author = {Mahase, E}, title = {Climate change: "Loss and damage" fund payouts could take decades, scientists warn.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o3050}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o3050}, pmid = {36543358}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Physicians ; Physical Therapy Modalities ; }, }
@article {pmid36542562, year = {2022}, author = {Ansari, RA and Landin, JM}, title = {Coverage of climate change in introductory biology textbooks, 1970-2019.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {12}, pages = {e0278532}, pmid = {36542562}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Global Warming ; Biology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a potent threat to human society, biodiversity, and ecosystem stability. Yet a 2021 Gallup poll found that only 43% of Americans see climate change as a serious threat over their lifetimes. In this study, we analyze college biology textbook coverage of climate change from 1970 to 2019. We focus on four aspects for content analysis: 1) the amount of coverage, determined by counting the number of sentences within the climate change passage, 2) the start location of the passage in the book, 3) the categorization of sentences as addressing a description of the greenhouse effect, impacts of global warming, or actions to ameliorate climate change, and 4) the presentation of data in figures. We analyzed 57 textbooks. Our findings show that coverage of climate change has continually increased, although the greatest increase occurred during the 1990s despite the growing threats of climate change. The position of the climate change passage moved further back in the book, from the last 15% to the last 2.5% of pages. Over time, coverage shifted from a description of the greenhouse effect to focus mostly on effects of climate change; the most addressed impact was shifting ecosystems. Sentences dedicated to actionable solutions to climate change peaked in the 1990s at over 15% of the passage, then decreased in recent decades to 3%. Data figures present only global temperatures and CO2 levels prior to the year 2000, then include photographic evidence and changes to species distributions after 2000. We hope this study will alert curriculum designers and instructors to consider implicit messages communicated in climate change lessons.}, }
@article {pmid36541571, year = {2023}, author = {Berger, M}, title = {Climate change impacts blood supply resilience.}, journal = {Vox sanguinis}, volume = {118}, number = {2}, pages = {164}, doi = {10.1111/vox.13390}, pmid = {36541571}, issn = {1423-0410}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Blood ; Blood Banks ; *Blood Banking ; }, }
@article {pmid36541280, year = {2023}, author = {Blane, DN and Basu, N}, title = {Tackling climate change and health inequalities in primary care.}, journal = {Family practice}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {498-501}, pmid = {36541280}, issn = {1460-2229}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Family Practice/education ; *General Practice ; Physicians, Family ; Primary Health Care ; }, abstract = {The Climate Emergency is now widely accepted as the biggest public health crisis facing humanity. Previous research has highlighted how social and health inequalities shape the health impacts of climate change in the UK, but there has been little attention to the role of general practice in deprived areas. This Brief Report summarises a roundtable discussion of Scottish 'Deep End' GPs - family doctors working in the most socio-economically deprived areas - which took place weeks before the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), held in Glasgow in November 2021. The report highlights the need for urgent action to make general practice more sustainable, including recommendations for community engagement, (de)prescribing, medical education, digital inclusion, and investment in premises and capacity building.}, }
@article {pmid36540311, year = {2023}, author = {Mu, L and Janmaat, J and Taylor, J and Arnold, L}, title = {Attitudes and opportunities: comparing climate change adaptation intentions and decisions of agricultural producers in Shaanxi, China, and British Columbia, Canada.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {8}, pmid = {36540311}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Climate change poses a major challenge for agricultural producers. There are a variety of adaptation strategies producers can use to enhance their resilience to the changing climate. The theory of planned behavior is applied as a framework to compare the adaptation intentions and choices of producers in Cariboo and Okanagan regions of the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada, and Baoji and Xi'an city prefectures of Shaanxi (SX) province, China. In BC, producers are more likely to explore the use of new crop varieties, and BC producers also seem to have a stronger intention to invest in irrigation efficiency. In contrast, producers in SX are far more likely to use online marketing methods to connect directly with consumers. Based on transcripts from a set of focus groups, community meetings, and interviews, differences in attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavioral control between SX and BC producers are identified that may contribute to their different adaptation choices. Multiple barriers to adaptation existed in both areas. Limited technical knowledge and doubts about adaptation effectiveness were more serious in BC, while limited support from local government and normative expectations were notable in SX. Education, targeted research, and public investments in irrigation and marketing may contribute to addressing some of these differences, improving the resilience of agricultural climate adaptation in both provinces.}, }
@article {pmid36540304, year = {2023}, author = {García-Del-Amo, D and Mortyn, PG and Reyes-García, V}, title = {Local reports of climate change impacts in Sierra Nevada, Spain: sociodemographic and geographical patterns.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {14}, pmid = {36540304}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: While we know that climate change is having different impacts on various ecosystems and regions of the world, we know less how the perception of such impacts varies within a population. In this study, we examine patterns of individual variation in climate change impacts reports using data from a sample (n = 238) drawn from 33 mountainous municipalities of Sierra Nevada, Spain. Sierra Nevada inhabitants report multiple climate change impacts, being the most frequently reported changes in snowfall and snow cover, abundance of terrestrial fauna, freshwater availability, and extreme temperatures. Reports of climate change impacts vary according to informants' sociodemographic characteristics and geographical location. People with life-long bonds with the environment and higher connection and dependence upon ecosystem services report more climate change impacts than other informants, as do people with lower level of schooling. We also found that reports of climate change impacts vary according to geographic areas, which reinforces the idea that climate change generates differentiated impacts even at small geographical scales. Understanding intracultural variation in reports of climate change impacts not only gives an enriched picture of the human dimensions of climate change but might also help design more targeted mitigation and adaptation responses.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-022-01981-5.}, }
@article {pmid36540079, year = {2022}, author = {Hamilton, NM and Morrison, ML and Harris, LS and Szewczak, JM and Osborn, SD}, title = {Predicting habitat suitability for Townsend's big-eared bats across California in relation to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {e9641}, pmid = {36540079}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Effective management decisions depend on knowledge of species distribution and habitat use. Maps generated from species distribution models are important in predicting previously unknown occurrences of protected species. However, if populations are seasonally dynamic or locally adapted, failing to consider population level differences could lead to erroneous determinations of occurrence probability and ineffective management. The study goal was to model the distribution of a species of special concern, Townsend's big-eared bats (Corynorhinus townsendii), in California. We incorporate seasonal and spatial differences to estimate the distribution under current and future climate conditions. We built species distribution models using all records from statewide roost surveys and by subsetting data to seasonal colonies, representing different phenological stages, and to Environmental Protection Agency Level III Ecoregions to understand how environmental needs vary based on these factors. We projected species' distribution for 2061-2080 in response to low and high emissions scenarios and calculated the expected range shifts. The estimated distribution differed between the combined (full dataset) and phenologically explicit models, while ecoregion-specific models were largely congruent with the combined model. Across the majority of models, precipitation was the most important variable predicting the presence of C. townsendii roosts. Under future climate scenarios, distribution of C. townsendii is expected to contract throughout the state, however suitable areas will expand within some ecoregions. Comparison of phenologically explicit models with combined models indicates the combined models better predict the extent of the known range of C. townsendii in California. However, life-history-explicit models aid in understanding of different environmental needs and distribution of their major phenological stages. Differences between ecoregion-specific and statewide predictions of habitat contractions highlight the need to consider regional variation when forecasting species' responses to climate change. These models can aid in directing seasonally explicit surveys and predicting regions most vulnerable under future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36538137, year = {2022}, author = {Wani, BA and Wani, SA and Magray, JA and Ahmad, R and Ganie, AH and Nawchoo, IA}, title = {Habitat suitability, range dynamics, and threat assessment of Swertia petiolata D. Don: a Himalayan endemic medicinally important plant under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {1}, pages = {214}, pmid = {36538137}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {MANF-2018-19-JAM-100111//UGC-DAE Consortium for Scientific Research, University Grants Commission/ ; }, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Swertia ; *Plants, Medicinal ; }, abstract = {In the current era of the anthropocene, climate change is one of the main determinants of species redistribution and biodiversity loss. Worryingly, the situation is alarming for endemic and medicinally important plant species with a narrow distributional range. Therefore, it is pivotal to inspect the influence of accelerated climate change on medicinally important threatened and endemic plant species. Using an ensemble approach, the current study aims at modelling the present distribution and predicting the future potential distribution coupled with the threat assessment of Swertia petiolata-a medicinally important endemic plant species in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. Our study revealed that under current climatic scenarios, the suitable habitats for the species occur across the western Himalayan region which includes the north-western Indian states (Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and southern Uttarakhand), northern Pakistan, and north-western Nepal. Also, temperature seasonality (BIO4) and precipitation seasonality (BIO15) are the most significant bioclimatic variables determining the distribution of S. petiolata. Furthermore, the study projected a reduction in the suitable habitats for the species under future changing climatic scenarios with a reduction ranging from - 40.298% under RCP4.5 2050 to - 83.421% under RCP8.5 2070. Most of the habitat reduction will occur in the western Himalayan region. In contrast, some of the currently unsuitable Himalayan regions like northern Uttarakhand will show increasing suitability under climate change scenarios. The current study also revealed that S. petiolata is classified as Near Threatened (NT) following the IUCN criterion B. Hopefully, the present study will provide a robust tool for predicting the cultivation hotspots and devising scientifically effective conservation strategies for this medicinally important plant species in the Himalaya and similar environments elsewhere in the world.}, }
@article {pmid36537301, year = {2023}, author = {Corsolini, S and Ademollo, N}, title = {Correction: POPs in Antarctic ecosystems: is climate change affecting their temporal trends?.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {119}, doi = {10.1039/d2em90046g}, pmid = {36537301}, issn = {2050-7895}, abstract = {Correction for 'POPs in Antarctic ecosystems: is climate change affecting their temporal trends?' by Simonetta Corsolini et al., Environ. Sci.: Processes Impacts, 2022, 24, 1631-1642, https://doi.org/10.1039/D2EM00273F.}, }
@article {pmid36536202, year = {2023}, author = {Cao, Y and Qi, F and Cui, H and Yuan, M}, title = {Knowledge domain and emerging trends of carbon footprint in the field of climate change and energy use: a bibliometric analysis.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {13}, pages = {35853-35870}, pmid = {36536202}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Bibliometrics ; Carbon ; *Carbon Footprint ; China ; Climate Change ; Industry ; }, abstract = {Carbon footprint (CF) research has attained tremendous popularity for improving the climate environment purposes. In particular, current energy use has been identified as the main cause of climate change. CF plays an irreplaceable role in managing energy use, reducing gas emissions, and improving climate change. The objective of this study was to review studies that have developed CF and to perform a bibliometric analysis using two key terms: "climate change" and "energy use". From bibliometric analysis using CiteSpace and VOSviewer, it was possible to establish a knowledge map of cooperative network structure and research evolution. We are aiming to reveal the main logical chain of CF research leading to climate change, to make up for the lack of current literature, and provide research inspiration for researchers. The research findings mainly focus on four aspects. First, the relevant research began in 2008 and is in a state of continuous rise. Second, due to the law of research development and the prominence of practical problems, related research has experienced a stage from conceptual methods to specific problems. Third, China and the USA assume an important role in which international cooperation is the overall trend. Fourth, related research can be divided into CF algorithm research, ecological environment management research, and specific cross-industry fields. In addition, possible opportunities for change in related research are explored. It is also suggested that the integration of CF with other footprints, when energy use and environmental change are fully considered, may become an important future research trend by providing a more comprehensive environmental impact.}, }
@article {pmid36535793, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, P and Chan, EYY and Lee, TC and Tong, HW and Goggins, WB}, title = {Projecting future temperature-related mortality in Hong Kong under climate change scenarios: abridged secondary publication.}, journal = {Hong Kong medical journal = Xianggang yi xue za zhi}, volume = {28 Suppl 6}, number = {6}, pages = {19-22}, pmid = {36535793}, issn = {1024-2708}, mesh = {Humans ; Temperature ; Hong Kong ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Mortality ; Hot Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid36534408, year = {2023}, author = {Triviño, M and Morán-Ordoñez, A and Eyvindson, K and Blattert, C and Burgas, D and Repo, A and Pohjanmies, T and Brotons, L and Snäll, T and Mönkkönen, M}, title = {Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {1484-1500}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16566}, pmid = {36534408}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {322066//Academy of Finland/ ; 326321//Academy of Finland/ ; //ERA-NET Sumforest project FutureBioEcon/ ; 201710545//Koneen S&#xe4;&#xe4;ti&#xf6;/ ; PID2020-119933RB-C22//Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain/ ; 302701//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d/ ; 337653//Suomen Akatemia/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Taiga ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016-2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite-they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.}, }
@article {pmid36533640, year = {2022}, author = {Aitken, WW and Brown, SC and Comellas, AP}, title = {Climate Change and Cardiovascular Health.}, journal = {Journal of the American Heart Association}, volume = {11}, number = {24}, pages = {e027847}, pmid = {36533640}, issn = {2047-9980}, support = {P30 ES005605/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 HL148880/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Public Health ; *Cardiovascular System ; Heart ; }, }
@article {pmid36533199, year = {2022}, author = {Del Lesto, I and De Liberato, C and Casini, R and Magliano, A and Ermenegildi, A and Romiti, F}, title = {Is Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) going to become homodynamic in Southern Europe in the next decades due to climate change?.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {220967}, pmid = {36533199}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, competent vector of several arboviruses, poses significant impact on human health worldwide. Although global warming is a driver of A . albopictus range expansion, few studies focused on its effects on homodynamicity (i.e. the ability to breed all-year-round), a key factor of vectorial capacity and a primary condition for an Aedes-borne disease to become endemic in temperate areas. Data from a 4-year monitoring network set in Central Italy and records from weather stations were used to assess winter adult activity and weekly minimum temperatures. Winter oviposition occurred in 38 localities with a seasonal mean photoperiod of 9.7 : 14.3 (L : D) h. Positive collections (87) occurred with an average minimum temperature of the two and three weeks before sampling of approximately 4°C. According to these evidences and considering the climate projections of three global climate models and three shared socio-economic pathways for the next three 20-year periods (from 2021 to 2080), the minimum temperature of January will increase enough to allow an all-year-round oviposition of A . albopictus in several areas of the Mediterranean Basin. Due to vector homodynamicity, Aedes-borne diseases could become endemic in Southern Europe by the end of the twenty-first century, worsening the burden on human health.}, }
@article {pmid36532997, year = {2022}, author = {Arnout, BA}, title = {Climate values as predictor of climate change perception in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1044697}, pmid = {36532997}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Understanding public perceptions of climate change and how individuals perceive it is critical to developing effective communication strategies, policies, and socially robust technologies to relieve the risks of climate change. Despite the growing literature on climate change, until now, researchers in Arab countries have not been interested in studying citizens' perceptions of climate change or identifying the factors that predict it. This study aimed to identify and understand the nature and dynamics of public perceptions of climate change among Arab citizens and detect the level of climate change perception (CCP) and climate values (CV). Also, to detect the predictability of CCP from CV. As well as to reveal the differences between CCP and CV.<br><br>METHODS: A random sample consisted of 465 participants (236 male and 229 female), residents of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; their ages ranged from 30 years and over. The Climate Change Perception Questionnaire (CCPQ) and Climate Values Questionnaire (CVQ) were applied online.<br><br>RESULTS: The results found average levels of CCP and CV among the study sample. The results also revealed significant statistical differences in the CCP and CV due to gender in favor of females. As well as, there were significant statistical differences in the CCP due to the career field in favor of agriculture, engineering, and construction workers. Also, there were statistical differences in the emotional subscale of climate perception and CV due to age groups in favor of individuals whose ages ranged from 30 to 45 years. The results also found that the CV were a statistically significant predictor (1.2% of total variance) of climate perception.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The current study showed an average level of CCP and CV among individuals in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabian. The findings also concluded that individuals' perceptions of climate change are an individual response determined by the individual's gender, age, and career field and are affected by his values about climate. These findings shed light on the need for climate communications to increase the level of CCP and CV, especially among males and individuals in the age group over 45 years and individuals working in various career fields, whether education, engineering and construction, and commerce and business, etc.; to improve the engagement in mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36532484, year = {2022}, author = {Chen, JH and Shen, S and Zhou, LW}, title = {Modeling current geographic distribution and future range shifts of Sanghuangporus under multiple climate change scenarios in China.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1064451}, pmid = {36532484}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {The genus Sanghuangporus is well-known for its edible and medicinal values. In this study, the most comprehensive occurrence records of Sanghuangporus with accurate species identification are subjected to MaxEnt, to model the current geographic distribution and future range shifts under multiple climate change scenarios in China. The current potential distribution model of Sanghuangporus is excellently predicted as indicated by the value of Area Under Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve. The current potential distribution basically corresponds to the known occurrence records of Sanghuangporus, and provides clues to new suitable habitats. The critical environmental variables to the distribution are annual precipitation, host plant, annual mean temperature and elevation. Host plant is not the most critical contribution to the model, but it indeed plays a decisive role in restricting the distribution of Sanghuangporus. This role is further confirmed by the distribution area of the highly suitable habitat increasing by 155.468%, when excluding host plant from environmental variables. For future scenarios, generally the area of highly suitable habitat for Sanghuangporus extremely increases, but the locations do not change a lot. In conclusion, this study provides important ecological information for the utilization and conservation of the edible and medicinal fungus Sanghuangporus.}, }
@article {pmid36532437, year = {2022}, author = {Yun, MS and Sun, J and Lovejoy, C and Lee, SH}, title = {Editorial: Microbial Response to a Rapidly Changing Marine Environment: Global Warming and Ocean Acidification, Volume II.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1094511}, pmid = {36532437}, issn = {1664-302X}, }
@article {pmid36532094, year = {2023}, author = {Trivedi, A and Jolly, S}, title = {Construing Climate Change Adaptation as Global Public Good Under International Law: Problems and Prospects.}, journal = {The Liverpool law review}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {37-62}, pmid = {36532094}, issn = {0144-932X}, abstract = {Article 7 of the Paris Agreement recognizes that adaptation is a 'global challenge faced by all with local, regional and international dimensions.' It further establishes the 'global goal on adaptation focusing on enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development.' However, the lack of international cooperation between the global north and global south challenge the formulation and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. This paper brings in the concept of global public goods (GPGs) to the lexicon of climate adaptation and highlights that adverse impacts of climate change such as climate-induced global migration are global public bad. Hence, the measures taken to respond to such impacts, which consequently enhance the resilience of affected countries, make them more adaptive to those adverse impacts, and deliver common values of universal character, should be construed as the global public good. The paper argues that that the idea of GPGs with its universality offers a normative and practical foundation for understanding, addressing, and strengthening the international community's climate adaptation actions and cooperation.}, }
@article {pmid36531631, year = {2022}, author = {Abazinab, H and Duguma, B and Muleta, E}, title = {Livestock farmers' perception of climate change and adaptation strategies in the Gera district, Jimma zone, Oromia Regional state, southwest Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e12200}, pmid = {36531631}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The aim of this study is to assess livestock farmers' perception of climate change (CC)/variability and adaptation strategies in the Gera district. Rainfall and temperature were the variables taken in the CC perception study. A total of 190 smallholder livestock farmers were sampled for the survey. Primary data were collected through semi-structured questionnaire interviews, focus group discussions (FGDs) and meteorological data series of 2001-2020. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20.0 was used to analyze the data. The results revealed that 79.17% of respondents perceived climate change over the past 20 years. About 84.9% and 82.9% of respondents perceived increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall over the past 20 years, respectively. Farmers' perception was consistent with meteorological data of the area, which also showed increasing trend in temperature and decreasing trend in rainfall. Farmers' perceived that anthropogenic action and natural processes, anthropogenic action, natural processes, and God's anger against human sins were the main causes of CC, in decreasing order. No statistical difference (p > 0.05) was found between AEZs regarding effects of CC except for incidence of trypanosomiasis. Decreased quality and quantity of feeds, water availability, milk production, and animal fertility, and increased calving interval, number of services per conception, incidence of animal disease, and parasite were perceived as the major impacts (indicators) of CC on livestock production and productivity in their order of importance. Diversification of mixed crop-livestock, diversification of livestock species, feed conservation, reducing herd sizes, water harvesting, provision of supplementary feeds, and forage production were the most practiced adaptation strategies. Lack of technical know-how about water harvesting, shortage of land for forage production, lack of improved forage seeds, lack of supplementary feed, poor livestock management skill, lack of feed conservation practices and poor access to market were the most important barriers to CC adaptation. It is concluded that there is a need for policy makers and livestock development stakeholders to formulate and implement intervention that promote farmers' perception and adaptation abilities to CC impacts and address the identified barriers for improving livestock productivity in the study area.}, }
@article {pmid36530541, year = {2022}, author = {Milinski, M and Marotzke, J}, title = {Economic experiments support Ostrom's polycentric approach to mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Humanities &amp; social sciences communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {442}, pmid = {36530541}, issn = {2662-9992}, abstract = {The late Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom envisioned a polycentric approach to mitigating climate change rather than a centralised solution. Debating about global efforts to solve climate-change problems has yet not led to an effective global treaty. Ostrom argued that instead of focusing only on global efforts, it is better to encourage polycentric efforts to reduce the risks associated with the emission of greenhouse gases. Many problems conceptualised as 'global problems' are the cumulative results of actions taken by individuals, families, small groups, private firms, and local, regional, and national governments. Ostrom and colleagues pointed to many examples of successfully managing a common good through interaction within a community. Energy-saving actions undertaken by individuals, families and actors at a small-scale pay off and, when multiplied, may reduce emissions globally. The incentive to achieve an individual net gain may trigger human investment decisions. Here we provide experimental support for Ostrom's basic ideas using methods of experimental economics. By subdividing experimental populations in subgroups that approach sub-goals of mitigating simulated dangerous climate change combined with incentives, the 'global' solution is achieved by combined subgroup contributions exceeding the 'global' threshold for averting simulated dangerous climate change. Incentives from refunded saved energy motivate reaching sub-goals, as Ostrom suggested. By contrast, coercing free-riding subgroups through sanctioning at a cost fails, because sanctioning also hits fair individuals who then reduce their contributions. However, the power of polycentricity with numerous successful units can help mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36528941, year = {2023}, author = {Sandoval-Martínez, J and Badano, EI and Guerra-Coss, FA and Flores Cano, JA and Flores, J and Gelviz-Gelvez, SM and Barragán-Torres, F}, title = {Selecting tree species to restore forest under climate change conditions: Complementing species distribution models with field experimentation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {329}, number = {}, pages = {117038}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117038}, pmid = {36528941}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Forests ; Mexico ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {The long-term success of forest restoration programs can be improved using climate-based species distribution models (SDMs) to predict which tree species will tolerate climate change. However, as SDMs cannot estimate if species will recruit at these habitats, determining whether their predictions apply to early life-cycle stages of trees is critical to support such a usage. For this, we propose sowing seeds of the focal tree species under the current climate and simulated climate change conditions in target restoration sites. Thus, using of SDMs to design climate-adaptive forest restoration programs would be supported if the differences in habitat occupancy probabilities of species they predict between the current and future climate concurs with the observed differences in recruitment rates of species when sowed under the current climate and simulated climate change conditions. To test this hypothesis, we calibrated SDMs for Vachellia pennatula and Prosopis laevigata, two pioneer tree species widely recommended to restore human-degraded drylands in Mexico, and transferred them to climate change scenarios. After that, we applied the experimental approach proposed above to validate the predictions of SDMs. These models predicted that V. pennatula will decrease its habitat occupancy probabilities across Mexico, while P. laevigata was predicted to keep out their current habitat occupancy probabilities, or even increase them, in climate change scenarios. The results of the field experiment supported these predictions, as recruitment rates of V. pennatula were lower under simulated climate change than under the current climate, while no differences were found for the recruitment rates of P. laevigata between these environmental conditions. These findings demonstrate that SDMs provide meaningful insights for designing climate-adaptive forest restoration programs but, before applying this methodology, predictions of these models must be validated with field experiments to determine whether the focal tree species will recruit under climate change conditions. Moreover, as the pioneer trees used to test our proposal seem to be differentially sensitive to climate change, this approach also allows establishing what species must be prescribed to restore forests with a view to the future and what species must be avoided in these practices.}, }
@article {pmid36528749, year = {2022}, author = {Marjakangas, EL and Santangeli, A and Johnston, A and Michel, NL and Princé, K and Lehikoinen, A}, title = {Effects of diversity on thermal niche variation in bird communities under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {21810}, pmid = {36528749}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Birds/physiology ; Biodiversity ; Seasons ; Biological Evolution ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change alters ecological communities by affecting individual species and interactions between species. However, the impacts of climate change may be buffered by community diversity: diverse communities may be more resistant to climate-driven perturbations than simple communities. Here, we assess how diversity influences long-term thermal niche variation in communities under climate change. We use 50-year continental-scale data on bird communities during breeding and non-breeding seasons to quantify the communities' thermal variability. Thermal variability is measured as the temporal change in the community's average thermal niche and it indicates community's response to climate change. Then, we study how the thermal variability varies as a function of taxonomic, functional, and evolutionary diversity using linear models. We find that communities with low thermal niche variation have higher functional diversity, with this pattern being measurable in the non-breeding but not in the breeding season. Given the expected increase in seasonal variation in the future climate, the differences in bird communities' thermal variability between breeding and non-breeding seasons may grow wider. Importantly, our results suggest that functionally diverse wildlife communities can mitigate effects of climate change by hindering changes in thermal niche variability, which underscores the importance of addressing the climate and biodiversity crises together.}, }
@article {pmid36528366, year = {2022}, author = {Gona, PN and More, AF}, title = {Bacterial pathogens and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {400}, number = {10369}, pages = {2161-2163}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(22)02424-2}, pmid = {36528366}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Bacteria ; }, }
@article {pmid36527777, year = {2023}, author = {Hupponen, M and Havukainen, J and Horttanainen, M}, title = {Long-term evolution of the climate change impacts of solid household waste management in Lappeenranta, Finland.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {157}, number = {}, pages = {69-81}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2022.11.038}, pmid = {36527777}, issn = {1879-2456}, mesh = {Solid Waste/analysis ; *Refuse Disposal/methods ; Carbon Dioxide ; Finland ; Climate Change ; *Waste Management/methods ; Waste Disposal Facilities ; }, abstract = {Waste management processes have developed significantly in recent decades and will continue to change alongside the associated environmental impacts. This paper examines the climate change impacts of historical development in waste management, which has not received significant attention in the existing literature, while also exploring possible future developments. The city of Lappeenranta in Finland was selected as a case study, and the climate impacts of household waste (HW) management were calculated for the actual situations in 2009 and 2019 and the foreseen situation in 2029. Separately collected waste fractions of mixed residual waste (MRW), biowaste, cardboard, plastic, metal, and glass were included in the analysis. The results show that the net climate change impact decreased considerably from 945 kgCO2-eq./tHW in 2009 to -141 kgCO2-eq./tHW in 2019 mainly by directing the MRW to energy recovery instead of landfill. The emissions responsible for climate change could be further reduced in 2029 by directing biowaste to digestion instead of composting and by directing more fractions to recycling; e.g., plastic, the impact of which is affected by the demand for recycled plastic. For the year 2029, the net climate change impact was -181 kgCO2-eq./tHW when heat produced from MRW displaced natural gas and was as high as 142 kgCO2-eq./tHW if the heat substituted biomass heat. The findings reveal that as energy production mixes and materials become less fossil carbon intensive, they have a significant impact on the net climate impacts of waste management.}, }
@article {pmid36527558, year = {2023}, author = {Abdi, AH and Warsame, AA and Sheik-Ali, IA}, title = {Modelling the impacts of climate change on cereal crop production in East Africa: evidence from heterogeneous panel cointegration analysis.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {12}, pages = {35246-35257}, pmid = {36527558}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Models, Theoretical ; *Edible Grain/supply &amp; distribution ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Africa, Eastern ; Agriculture/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Time Factors ; Rural Population ; Rain ; Temperature ; Carbon Dioxide ; }, abstract = {Climate change has become an issue of concern for sustainable agriculture production. East African nations are heavily reliant on the agriculture sector, which accounts for a substantial amount of their gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. Due to climatic fluctuations, the output of the sector became very unpredictable. Hence, this study investigates the effects of climate change on cereal crop production in nine East African nations between 1990 and 2018. The study implemented pooled mean group (PMG) approach to examine the long-run and short-run dynamic impacts of the varying climatic circumstances on the output of cereal crops. The results reveal that rainfall and carbon emissions have favourable and significant long-run effects on cereal crop output, even though their short-run impacts are negligible. Additionally, cultivated land area and rural population have a constructive role in enhancing agricultural output both in the long-run and short-run. However, average temperatures have negative repercussions on cereal crop production in the long-run and short-run, even though the magnitude of sensitivity is greater in the short-run. Dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) validated the robustness of the long-run findings of the PMG technique. Besides, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality outcomes indicate that cereal crop output has a bidirectional causality with temperature, carbon emissions, and cropped area. The study further demonstrated unidirectional causation from rural population to cereal crop yield. The study recommends that East African policymakers improve the quality of farm inputs, the adoption of climate-resilient farming practices, the development of water retention facilities and the establishment of crop diversification initiatives.}, }
@article {pmid36524933, year = {2023}, author = {Calabrese, GM and Pfennig, KS}, title = {Climate Change Alters Sexual Signaling in a Desert-Adapted Frog.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {201}, number = {1}, pages = {91-105}, doi = {10.1086/722174}, pmid = {36524933}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {Animals ; Male ; *Climate Change ; *Anura ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Reproduction ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {AbstractClimate change is altering species' habitats, phenology, and behavior. Although sexual behaviors impact population persistence and fitness, climate change's effects on sexual signals are understudied. Climate change can directly alter temperature-dependent sexual signals, cause changes in body size or condition that affect signal production, or alter the selective landscape of sexual signals. We tested whether temperature-dependent mating calls of Mexican spadefoot toads (Spea multiplicata) had changed in concert with climate in the southwestern United States across 22 years. We document increasing air temperatures, decreasing rainfall, and changing seasonal patterns of temperature and rainfall in the spadefoots' habitat. Despite increasing air temperatures, spadefoots' ephemeral breeding ponds have been getting colder at most elevations, and male calls have been slowing as a result. However, temperature-standardized call characters have become faster, and male condition has increased, possibly due to changes in the selective environment. Thus, climate change might generate rapid, complex changes in sexual signals with important evolutionary consequences.}, }
@article {pmid36524750, year = {2023}, author = {Rodgers, RF and Paxton, SJ and Nagata, JM and Becker, AE}, title = {The impact of climate change on eating disorders: An urgent call for research.}, journal = {The International journal of eating disorders}, volume = {56}, number = {5}, pages = {909-913}, doi = {10.1002/eat.23876}, pmid = {36524750}, issn = {1098-108X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Mental Health ; Social Justice ; *Feeding and Eating Disorders ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects many of the documented risk factors for eating disorders (EDs) through direct and indirect pathways, yet to date the research in this area is nonexistent. Our aim is to identify the specific mechanisms through which climate change might be associated with increased risk for EDs, an exacerbation in symptoms, or poor clinical outcomes; highlight limited empirical data addressing these issues; and propose directions for a research program in this important area. Pathways for the impact of climate change on eating disorders and related data were reviewed. Four main pathways for the effects of climate change on EDs were identified including (1) decreased food access and security; (2) changes in mean temperature; (3) concerns related to food safety and eco-anxiety; and (4) indirect pathways through trauma, adversity, and increased mental health concerns. Except for the relationship between increased food insecurity and EDs, these pathways remain largely uninvestigated. Numerous factors may be implicated in the relationship between climate change and EDs. Future work in this area is imperative and should be conducted through a social justice lens with particular attention paid to the global areas most impacted by climate change and related vulnerabilities. Climate change will likely have adverse impacts on individuals with eating disorders and increase the risk for eating disorders. This paper reviews the different ways in which climate change may have these effects and calls for researchers to pay attention to this important area.}, }
@article {pmid36523631, year = {2022}, author = {Son, S and Park, SR}, title = {Climate change impedes plant immunity mechanisms.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1032820}, pmid = {36523631}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Rapid climate change caused by human activity is threatening global crop production and food security worldwide. In particular, the emergence of new infectious plant pathogens and the geographical expansion of plant disease incidence result in serious yield losses of major crops annually. Since climate change has accelerated recently and is expected to worsen in the future, we have reached an inflection point where comprehensive preparations to cope with the upcoming crisis can no longer be delayed. Development of new plant breeding technologies including site-directed nucleases offers the opportunity to mitigate the effects of the changing climate. Therefore, understanding the effects of climate change on plant innate immunity and identification of elite genes conferring disease resistance are crucial for the engineering of new crop cultivars and plant improvement strategies. Here, we summarize and discuss the effects of major environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, and carbon dioxide concentration on plant immunity systems. This review provides a strategy for securing crop-based nutrition against severe pathogen attacks in the era of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36523536, year = {2022}, author = {Fan, ZF and Zhou, BJ and Ma, CL and Gao, C and Han, DN and Chai, Y}, title = {Impacts of climate change on species distribution patterns of Polyspora sweet in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {e9516}, pmid = {36523536}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change is an important driver of species distribution and biodiversity. Understanding the response of plants to climate change is helpful to understand species differentiation and formulate conservation strategies. The genus Polyspora (Theaceae) has an ancient origin and is widely distributed in subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests. Studies on the impacts of climate change on species geographical distribution of Chinese Polyspora can provide an important reference for exploring the responses of plant groups in subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests with geological events and climate change in China. Based on the environmental variables, distribution records, and chloroplast genomes, we modeled the potential distribution of Chinese Polyspora in the Last Glacial Maximum, middle Holocene, current, and future by using MaxEnt-ArcGIS model and molecular phylogenetic method. The changes in the species distribution area, centroid shift, and ecological niche in each periods were analyzed to speculate the response modes of Chinese Polyspora to climate change in different periods. The most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of Polyspora was the precipitation of the driest month, ranging from 13 to 25 mm for the highly suitable habitats. At present, highly suitable distribution areas of Polyspora were mainly located in the south of 25°N, and had species-specificity. The main glacial refugia of the Chinese Polyspora might be located in the Ailao, Gaoligong, and Dawei Mountains of Yunnan Province. Jinping County, Pingbian County, and the Maguan County at the border of China and Vietnam might be the species differentiation center of the Chinese Polyspora. Moderate climate warming in the future would be beneficial to the survival of P. axillaris, P. chrysandra, and P. speciosa. However, climate warming under different shared socio-economic pathways would reduce the suitable habitats of P. hainanensis and P. longicarpa.}, }
@article {pmid36520538, year = {2022}, author = {Balbus, J}, title = {Observations from COP27: Health Care Is Becoming a Bigger Part of the Climate Change Solution.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {130}, number = {12}, pages = {121001}, doi = {10.1289/EHP12549}, pmid = {36520538}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Facilities ; Delivery of Health Care ; }, }
@article {pmid36519411, year = {2023}, author = {Almiron, N and Moreno, JA and Farrell, J}, title = {Climate change contrarian think tanks in Europe: A network analysis.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {32}, number = {3}, pages = {268-283}, doi = {10.1177/09636625221137815}, pmid = {36519411}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Male ; Humans ; Female ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; }, abstract = {Drawing from network theory and previous findings from US-based analyses, we measure the structure and interconnectedness of climate contrarian think tanks in Europe. This exploratory analysis can illustrate European organizations' capacity to promote or disrupt political discourse. To this end, we use social network analysis to conduct actor-focused research. We identify the individuals bridging European think tanks, as well as their ties with the US climate change contrarian network. Our analysis reveals a discernible network structure for European climate change contrarian think tanks, with a profile connected to neoliberal organizations, including a few, but highly relevant links, with the US countermovement. We also find that the European think tanks' institutional structure is very much shaped by a strong predominance of men, which aligns with previous research on masculinity and climate contrarianism.}, }
@article {pmid36516413, year = {2023}, author = {Bäurle, I and Laplaze, L and Martin, A}, title = {Preparing for an uncertain future: molecular responses of plants facing climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {74}, number = {5}, pages = {1297-1302}, pmid = {36516413}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plants/genetics ; Hot Temperature ; Droughts ; Carbon Dioxide ; }, }
@article {pmid36516354, year = {2023}, author = {Dupont, L and Le Mézo, P and Aumont, O and Bopp, L and Clerc, C and Ethé, C and Maury, O}, title = {High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {1545-1556}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16558}, pmid = {36516354}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {ANR-17-CE32-0008-01//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; 817578//H2020 European Institute of Innovation and Technology/ ; 817806//H2020 European Institute of Innovation and Technology/ ; 820989//H2020 European Institute of Innovation and Technology/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Feedback ; Biomass ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Despite recurrent emphasis on their ecological and economic roles, the importance of high trophic levels (HTLs) on ocean carbon dynamics, through passive (fecal pellet production, carcasses) and active (vertical migration) processes, is still largely unexplored, notably under climate change scenarios. In addition, HTLs impact the ecosystem dynamics through top-down effects on lower trophic levels, which might change under anthropogenic influence. Here we compare two simulations of a global biogeochemical-ecosystem model with and without feedbacks from large marine animals. We show that these large marine animals affect the evolution of low trophic level biomasses, hence net primary production and most certainly ecosystem equilibrium, but seem to have little influence on the 21st-century anthropogenic carbon uptake under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results provide new insights regarding the expectations for trophic amplification of climate change through the marine trophic chain and regarding the necessity to explicitly represent marine animals in Earth System Models.}, }
@article {pmid36516018, year = {2022}, author = {Sheahan, M and Gould, CA and Neumann, JE and Kinney, PL and Hoffmann, S and Fant, C and Wang, X and Kolian, M}, title = {Erratum: "Examining the Relationship between Climate Change and Vibriosis in the United States: Projected Health and Economic Impacts for the 21st Century".}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {130}, number = {12}, pages = {129002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP12437}, pmid = {36516018}, issn = {1552-9924}, }
@article {pmid36515542, year = {2023}, author = {Briscoe, NJ and Morris, SD and Mathewson, PD and Buckley, LB and Jusup, M and Levy, O and Maclean, IMD and Pincebourde, S and Riddell, EA and Roberts, JA and Schouten, R and Sears, MW and Kearney, MR}, title = {Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: The promise of biophysical ecology.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {1451-1470}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16557}, pmid = {36515542}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DP200101279//Australian Research Council/ ; JP21H03625//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/ ; //University of Melbourne/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Forecasting ; Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.}, }
@article {pmid36515441, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Eastern Mediterranean health journal = La revue de sante de la Mediterranee orientale = al-Majallah al-sihhiyah li-sharq al-mutawassit}, volume = {28}, number = {11}, pages = {785-787}, doi = {10.26719/2022.28.11.785}, pmid = {36515441}, issn = {1687-1634}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Temperature ; Africa ; }, abstract = {Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change. The 2022 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) paints a dark picture of the future of life on earth, characterised by ecosystem collapse, species extinction, and climate hazards such as heatwaves and floods. These are all linked to physical and mental health problems, with direct and indirect consequences of increased morbidity and mortality. To avoid these catastrophic health effects across all regions of the globe, there is broad agreement-as 231 health journals argued together in 2021-that the rise in global temperature must be limited to less than 1.5[o]C compared with pre-industrial levels.}, }
@article {pmid36515206, year = {2023}, author = {Iglesias-Rios, L and O'Neill, MS and Handal, AJ}, title = {Climate Change, Heat, and Farmworker Health.}, journal = {Workplace health &amp; safety}, volume = {71}, number = {1}, pages = {43}, doi = {10.1177/21650799221135581}, pmid = {36515206}, issn = {2165-0969}, support = {P30 ES017885/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T42 OH008455/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; T32 ES007062/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Farmers ; Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; *Occupational Diseases ; *Occupational Health ; *Transients and Migrants ; }, }
@article {pmid36514555, year = {2022}, author = {Xie, C and Tian, E and Jim, CY and Liu, D and Hu, Z}, title = {Effects of climate-change scenarios on the distribution patterns of Castanea henryi.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {e9597}, pmid = {36514555}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Castanea henryi, with edible nuts and timber value, is a key tree species playing essential roles in China's subtropical forest ecosystems. However, natural and human perturbations have nearly depleted its wild populations. The study identified the dominant environmental variables enabling and limiting its distribution and predicted its suitable habitats and distribution. The 212 occurrence records covering the whole distribution range of C. henryi in China and nine main bioclimatic variables were selected for detailed analysis. We applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and QGIS to predict potentially suitable habitats under the current and four future climate-change scenarios. The limiting factors for distribution were accessed by Jackknife, percent contribution, and permutation importance. We found that the current distribution areas were concentrated in the typical subtropical zone, mainly Central and South China provinces. The modeling results indicated temperature as the critical determinant of distribution patterns, including mean temperature of the coldest quarter, isothermality, and mean diurnal range. Winter low temperature imposed an effective constraint on its spread. Moisture served as a secondary factor in species distribution, involving precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation. Under future climate-change scenarios, excellent habitats would expand and shift northwards, whereas range contraction would occur on the southern edge. Extreme climate change could bring notable range shrinkage. This study provided a basis for protecting the species' germplasm resources. The findings could guide the management, cultivation, and conservation of C. henryi, assisted by a proposed three-domain operation framework: preservation areas, loss areas, and new areas, each to be implemented using tailor-made strategies.}, }
@article {pmid36512339, year = {2022}, author = {Abbas, F and O'Neill Rothenberg, D and Zhou, Y and Ke, Y and Wang, HC}, title = {Volatile organic compounds as mediators of plant communication and adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {174}, number = {6}, pages = {e13840}, doi = {10.1111/ppl.13840}, pmid = {36512339}, issn = {1399-3054}, support = {CARS-32-08//China Litchi and Longan Industry Technology Research System/ ; 202103000057//Guangzhou Science and Technology Project/ ; 202206010023//Guangzhou Science and Technology Project/ ; 2021J0716//Science and Technology Project of Yunnan Provincial Education Department/ ; 2018YFD1000200//National Key Research and Development Program/ ; 202101BA070001-166//Yunnan Provincial Science and Technology Department Local Universities Joint Project/ ; XJ20220003//Talent Introduction Project of Kunming University/ ; }, mesh = {*Volatile Organic Compounds/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Plants/metabolism ; Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {Plant volatile organic compounds are the most abundant and structurally diverse plant secondary metabolites. They play a key role in plant lifespan via direct and indirect plant defenses, attracting pollinators, and mediating various interactions between plants and their environment. The ecological diversity and context-dependence of plant-plant communication driven by volatiles are crucial elements that influence plant performance in different habitats. Plant volatiles are also valued for their multiple applications in food, flavor, pharmaceutical, and cosmetics industries. In the current review, we summarize recent advances that have elucidated the functions of plant volatile organic compounds as mediators of plant interaction at community and individual levels, highlighting the complexities of plant receiver feedback to various signals and cues. This review emphasizes volatile terpenoids, the most abundant class of plant volatile organic compounds, highlighting their role in plant adaptability to global climate change and stress-response pathways that are integral to plant growth and survival. Finally, we identify research gaps and suggest future research directions.}, }
@article {pmid36512184, year = {2023}, author = {Sahu, M and Chattopadhyay, B and Das, R and Chaturvedi, S}, title = {Measuring Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Health in the Background of Multiple Disadvantages: A Scoping Review for Equitable Public Health Policy Formulation.}, journal = {Journal of prevention (2022)}, volume = {44}, number = {4}, pages = {421-456}, pmid = {36512184}, issn = {2731-5541}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Health Policy ; Indigenous Peoples ; *Mental Disorders ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {How climate change is uniquely affecting Indigenous health remains a very less explored area in the existing research literature. The imperative of inclusive climate action to protect indigenous health multiplies manifolds due to their unique vulnerabilities owing to predominant dependence on natural resources and multiple disadvantages faced. The current article attempted to add to the evidence pool regarding climate change impacts on the indigenous population by systematically collecting, processing, and interpreting data as a scoping literature review for effective and inclusive climate policymaking. Twenty-Nine articles of varied study designs were identified employing a systematically organized search strategy using PubMed (Field, MeSH, and advanced search) and Google scholar; relevant data were extracted for further analysis. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines were followed. Changing climate scenarios had both direct and indirect health-related impacts on indigenous health, and altered the epidemiological triad for various health-related events, causing the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases, and increased prevalence of chronic diseases and mental disorders. An expanded framework was developed showcasing the variability of climate change events, multiple disadvantages, and its impacts on indigenous populations. Few studies also reported a wide range of adaptation responses of indigenous peoples towards climate change. It was substantiated that any climate-change mitigation policy must take into account the trials and tribulations of indigenous communities. Also, due to the complexity and large variability of the impacts and differences in mitigation capabilities, policies should be contextualized locally and tailored to meet the climate need of the indigenous community.}, }
@article {pmid36511294, year = {2023}, author = {Porada, P and Bader, MY and Berdugo, MB and Colesie, C and Ellis, CJ and Giordani, P and Herzschuh, U and Ma, Y and Launiainen, S and Nascimbene, J and Petersen, I and Raggio Quílez, J and Rodríguez-Caballero, E and Rousk, K and Sancho, LG and Scheidegger, C and Seitz, S and Van Stan, JT and Veste, M and Weber, B and Weston, DJ}, title = {A research agenda for nonvascular photoautotrophs under climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {237}, number = {5}, pages = {1495-1504}, doi = {10.1111/nph.18631}, pmid = {36511294}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Plants ; *Bryophyta/physiology ; *Lichens/physiology ; }, abstract = {Nonvascular photoautotrophs (NVP), including bryophytes, lichens, terrestrial algae, and cyanobacteria, are increasingly recognized as being essential to ecosystem functioning in many regions of the world. Current research suggests that climate change may pose a substantial threat to NVP, but the extent to which this will affect the associated ecosystem functions and services is highly uncertain. Here, we propose a research agenda to address this urgent question, focusing on physiological and ecological processes that link NVP to ecosystem functions while also taking into account the substantial taxonomic diversity across multiple ecosystem types. Accordingly, we developed a new categorization scheme, based on microclimatic gradients, which simplifies the high physiological and morphological diversity of NVP and world-wide distribution with respect to several broad habitat types. We found that habitat-specific ecosystem functions of NVP will likely be substantially affected by climate change, and more quantitative process understanding is required on: (1) potential for acclimation; (2) response to elevated CO2 ; (3) role of the microbiome; and (4) feedback to (micro)climate. We suggest an integrative approach of innovative, multimethod laboratory and field experiments and ecophysiological modelling, for which sustained scientific collaboration on NVP research will be essential.}, }
@article {pmid36510028, year = {2023}, author = {Goyette, JO and Savary, S and Blanchette, M and Rousseau, AN and Pellerin, S and Poulin, M}, title = {Setting Targets for Wetland Restoration to Mitigate Climate Change Effects on Watershed Hydrology.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {71}, number = {2}, pages = {365-378}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-022-01763-z}, pmid = {36510028}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Hydrology ; *Wetlands ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {How much wetland we should protect or restore is not a simple question, such that conservation targets are often set according to political agendas, then standardized globally. However, given their key regulating hydrological functions, wetlands represent nature-based solutions to the anticipated, exacerbating effect of climate change on drought and flood events, which will vary at the regional scale. Here, we propose a science-based approach to establishing regional wetland restoration targets centered on their hydrological functions, using a case study on several sub-watersheds of a northern temperate basin in south-eastern Canada. We posit that restoration targets should minimally mitigate the negative effects of climate change on watershed hydrology, namely peak and low flows. We used a semi-distributed hydrological model, HYDROTEL, to perform a hydroclimatic assessment, including 47 climate projections over the 1979-2099 period, to test the effect of wetland restoration scenarios on peak and low flows. The results showed that hydrological responses to climate change varied among sub-watersheds (even at the scale of a relatively small region), and that, to mitigate these changes, increases in wetland coverage should be between 20% and up to 150%. At low restoration levels, increasing wetland coverage was more effective in attenuating floods than alleviating droughts. This study indicates that a no-net-loss policy is insufficient to maintain current hydrological cycles in the face of climate change; rather, a 'net gain' in wetland cover is needed.}, }
@article {pmid36509796, year = {2022}, author = {Nazeer, A and Maskey, S and Skaugen, T and McClain, ME}, title = {Changes in the hydro-climatic regime of the Hunza Basin in the Upper Indus under CMIP6 climate change projections.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {21442}, pmid = {36509796}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Rivers ; Floods ; Ice Cover ; Water ; }, abstract = {The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) heavily depends on its frozen water resources, and an accelerated melt due to the projected climate change may significantly alter future water availability. The future hydro-climatic regime and water availability of the Hunza basin (a sub-basin of UIB) were analysed using the newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections. A data and parameter parsimonious precipitation-runoff model, the Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD) model, was used with energy balance-based subroutines for snowmelt, glacier melt and evapotranspiration. The DDD model was set up for baseline (1991-2010), mid-century (2041-2060) and end-century (2081-2100) climates projections from two global circulation models (GCM), namely EC-Earth3 and MPI-ESM. The projections indicate a substantial increase in temperature (1.1-8.6 °C) and precipitation (12-32%) throughout the twenty-first century. The simulations show the future flow increase between 23-126% and the future glacier melt increase between 30-265%, depending on the scenarios and GCMs used. Moreover, the simulations suggest an increasing glacier melt contribution from all elevations with a significant increase from the higher elevations. The findings provide a basis for planning and modifying reservoir operation strategies with respect to hydropower generation, irrigation withdrawals, flood control, and drought management.}, }
@article {pmid36509607, year = {2023}, author = {Candal-Pedreira, C and Ruano-Ravina, A and Martínez-González, C}, title = {Atmospheric Episodes Linked to Climate Change and Their Impact on Respiratory Health.}, journal = {Archivos de bronconeumologia}, volume = {59}, number = {4}, pages = {201-202}, doi = {10.1016/j.arbres.2022.11.011}, pmid = {36509607}, issn = {1579-2129}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Weather ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36508147, year = {2023}, author = {Howard, E}, title = {Linking gender, climate change and security in the Pacific Islands Region: A systematic review.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {518-533}, pmid = {36508147}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Databases, Factual ; Pacific Islands ; Sex Factors ; *Sexism/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Scholarly Communication/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Security Measures/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {This systematic review aims to address gaps in understanding how concepts of gender, climate change and security are given meaning and linked in empirical scholarship within the Pacific Islands Region. The review assesses the 53 articles returned through Web of Science, SCOPUS and ProQuest databases that are derived from empirical research and refer to gender, climate change and security. The findings indicate that this is an emerging topic in a region that is one of the most vulnerable to climate change across the globe. Most frequently gender analysis is given superficial treatment; there is limited literature that connects gendered vulnerabilities to historical legacies and structural inequalities; and women's critical roles that create security are often overlooked and devalued. The review indicates that greater work is needed to question perceived threats to security and to reveal how climate change, gendered institutions, systems and spaces, historical legacies and politics interact to construct security in the Pacific Islands Region.}, }
@article {pmid36508038, year = {2023}, author = {Solís, I and Álvarez, E and Barba, E}, title = {Global warming modifies the seasonal distribution of clutches on a Mediterranean great tit population.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {67}, number = {2}, pages = {367-376}, pmid = {36508038}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; Seasons ; *Passeriformes ; Temperature ; Hot Temperature ; Reproduction ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Global warming has multiple effects on phenological events on a wide range of plants and animals. Specifically, many bird species have advanced the start of their breeding season, which could also imply an extension in its duration and also a change in the distribution of clutches throughout the breeding season. We have tested whether this occurred in a population of Great Tits (Parus major), in Sagunto (eastern Spain). The increase of March temperatures between 1986 and 2019 was related to an advancement of the breeding season. Although the breeding season was longer in years with higher June temperatures, the length did not show a temporal trend throughout the study period. The clutches were more concentrated at the beginning of the season (increase in the skewness), while the kurtosis ("tailedness" of the distribution) or the modality did not change significantly. Finally, the number of "equally good months" for breeding (a combined measure of length and distribution) has not changed throughout the years. Overall, all these phenological changes probably caused the observed increased proportion of pairs laying two clutches per year. It remains to be studied whether this increase in reproductive effort has positive or negative impact on fitness.}, }
@article {pmid36507411, year = {2022}, author = {Lian, Y and Wang, A and Peng, S and Jia, J and Yang, X and Li, J and Yang, S and Zheng, R and Zhou, S}, title = {Potential global distribution area projections of the aphid Lipaphis erysimi and its predator Eupeodes corollae in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1019693}, pmid = {36507411}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change affects the population distribution of pests and their natural enemies, and predicting these effects is necessary for pest monitoring and green control. Lipaphis erysimi is an important vegetable pest, and its natural enemy, the Eupeodes corollae Fabricius has a strong predatory effect on the L. erysimi. To assess the spread trends of L. erysimi and its natural enemy, the hoverfly, E. corollae under current (1970-2000) and future climates (2041-2060), based on the MaxEnt model, this paper uses data on the geographical distribution of the historical occurrence of L. erysimi and E. corollae to speculate on their potential distribution areas worldwide and analyze the key environmental factors affecting the survival and spread of both. The results showed that the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP4.5 climatic conditions are favorable for the spread of L. erysimi, the RCP8.5 climatic conditions are unfavorable for the spread of L. erysimi, and all three future climatic conditions are unfavorable for the spread of E. corollae. The highest fitness of L. erysimi was found at the annual average temperature of 18 °C and the annual average precipitation of 900 mm, while the highest fitness of E. corollae was found at the annual average temperature of 10 °C and the lowest temperature in the coldest month of 0 °C. This study can provide a reference basis for monitoring and early warning and biological control of L. erysimi.}, }
@article {pmid36507380, year = {2022}, author = {Yan, Z and Xu, J and Wang, X and Yang, Z and Liu, D and Li, G and Huang, H}, title = {Continued spring phenological advance under global warming hiatus over the Pan-Third Pole.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1071858}, pmid = {36507380}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The global surface temperature has witnessed a warming hiatus in the first decade of this century, but how this slowing down of warming will impact spring phenology over Pan-Third Pole remains unclear. Here, we combined multiple satellite-derived vegetation indices with eddy covariance datasets to evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in spring phenological changes over the Pan-Third Pole. We found that the spring phenology over Pan-Third Pole continues to advance at the rate of 4.8 days decade[-1] during the warming hiatus period, which is contrasted to a non-significant change over the northern hemisphere. Such a significant and continued advance in spring phenology was mainly attributed to an increase in preseason minimum temperature and water availability. Moreover, there is an overall increasing importance of precipitation on changes in spring phenology during the last four decades. We further demonstrated that this increasingly negative correlation was also found across more than two-thirds of the dryland region, tentatively suggesting that spring phenological changes might shift from temperature to precipitation-controlled over the Pan-Third Pole in a warmer world.}, }
@article {pmid36507369, year = {2022}, author = {Hoffman, NE}, title = {USDA's revised biotechnology regulation's contribution to increasing agricultural sustainability and responding to climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1055529}, pmid = {36507369}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Biotechnology can provide a valuable tool to meet UN Sustainable Development Goals and U.S. initiatives to find climate solutions and improve agricultural sustainability. The literature contains hundreds of examples of crops that may serve this purpose, yet most remain un-launched due to high regulatory barriers. Recently the USDA revised its biotechnology regulations to make them more risk-proportionate, science-based, and streamlined. Here, we review some of the promising leads that may enable agriculture to contribute to UN sustainability goals. We further describe and discuss how the revised biotechnology regulation would hypothetically apply to these cases.}, }
@article {pmid36507088, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Adawy, ME and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {28}, number = {}, pages = {100622}, pmid = {36507088}, issn = {2666-6065}, }
@article {pmid36506931, year = {2022}, author = {Wong-Parodi, G and Rose Garfin, D}, title = {Hurricane adaptation behaviors in Texas and Florida: exploring the roles of negative personal experience and subjective attribution to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {36506931}, issn = {1748-9326}, support = {K01 MD013910/MD/NIMHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Understanding motivation to adopt personal household adaptation behaviors in the face of climate change-related hazards is essential for developing and implementing behaviorally realistic interventions that promote well-being and health. Escalating extreme weather events increase the number of those directly exposed and adversely impacted by climate change. But do people attribute these negative events to climate change? Such subjective attribution may be one cognitive process whereby the experience of negative climate change-related events may increase risk perceptions and motivate people to act. Here we surveyed a representative sample of 1,846 residents of Florida and Texas, many who had been repeatedly exposed to hurricanes on the Gulf Coast, facing the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. We assessed prior hurricane negative personal experience, climate change-related subjective attribution (for hurricanes), risk appraisal (perceived probability and severity of a hurricane threat), hurricane adaptation appraisal (perceived efficacy of adaptation measures and self-efficacy to address the threat of hurricanes), and self-reported hurricane personal household adaptation. Our findings suggest that prior hurricane negative personal experiences and subjective attribution are associated with greater hurricane risk appraisal. Hurricane subjective attribution moderated the relationship between hurricane negative personal experiences and risk appraisal; in turn, negative hurricane personal experience, hurricane risk appraisal, and adaptation appraisal were positively associated with self-reported hurricane personal adaptation behaviors. Subjective attribution may be associated with elevated perceived risk for specific climate hazards. Communications that help people understand the link between their negative personal experiences (e.g., hurricanes) and climate change may help guide risk perceptions and motivate protective actions, particularly in areas with repeated exposure to threats.}, }
@article {pmid36506638, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Canadian journal of respiratory therapy : CJRT = Revue canadienne de la therapie respiratoire : RCTR}, volume = {58}, number = {}, pages = {185-186}, pmid = {36506638}, issn = {1205-9838}, }
@article {pmid36506393, year = {2022}, author = {Siddique, MAB and Ahammad, AKS and Bashar, A and Hasan, NA and Mahalder, B and Alam, MM and Biswas, JC and Haque, MM}, title = {Impacts of climate change on fish hatchery productivity in Bangladesh: A critical review.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e11951}, pmid = {36506393}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Bangladesh is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change due to its geographical location. Climate change issues have become major concerns in aquaculture industry, particularly for fish hatchery productivity. Fish production in Bangladesh is mainly steered by the aquaculture sector, which is dependent on private hatchery-based fish seed production to a great extent. This review aimed to present the impacts of climate change on fish hatcheries, particularly during different stages of hatchery production, and the economic loss from the onset of disease and other impairments due to environmental causes. Geographically, most hatcheries in Bangladesh are operated within a narrow range of temperature (22.8-23.1 °C, equivalent to 73-73.5 °F) and rainfall (1750-2000 mm). Thus, slightest fluctuations in these parameters affect seed production in fish hatcheries. The broodstock, produced in natural and captive conditions, is severely affected by flash flooding, water quality deterioration, river siltation, erratic rainfall, and temperature fluctuations. Based on our review, temperature fluctuation is the main factor hampering maturation and breeding performances of broodstock. Temperature has also been reported to affect embryonic development and cause stunted growth of larvae and juvenile. In shrimp and prawn hatcheries, fluctuations in temperature, pH, and salinity are responsible for post-larval disease outbreaks. In some instances, storms and heavy rainfall wash away reared broodfish and fish seed from the hatcheries, causing massive socioeconomic losses. This review presents indisputable negative impacts of climate change on hatchery production. As of now, no cost-effective proven strategies have been developed to minimize the effects of climate change on Bangladesh's fish hatchery production, on which the aquaculture industry is inextricably dependent. For sustainable fish hatchery production, basic research on climate impacts on hatcheries is inevitable, as well as improving capacity of hatchery owners are needed for resilient hatchery operations in Bangladesh and similar environments worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid36506340, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Adawy, ME and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Europe}, volume = {23}, number = {}, pages = {100535}, pmid = {36506340}, issn = {2666-7762}, }
@article {pmid36505760, year = {2022}, author = {Moore, G}, title = {Virtuous organizations: Desire, consumption and human flourishing in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in sociology}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {960054}, pmid = {36505760}, issn = {2297-7775}, abstract = {The notion of virtuous organizations has an established place in the business ethics/organization studies literature. But this conceptualization drew principally on Alasdair MacIntyre's After Virtue. His more recent work Ethics in the Conflicts of Modernity, with its focus on desire, consumption and human flourishing, demands a revisiting of the original concept. The first aim of this paper, therefore, is to provide an extended theory of the notion of the virtuous organization. An obvious application of this extended theory is to the issue of climate change. In exploring this, the paper has a further aim which is to respond to Banerjee et al.'s call for more theory building that articulates post-growth possibilities at the organization level in relation to the multiple challenges which society faces in response to the changing climate. The paper begins by summarizing the current conceptual framework of the virtuous organization while recognizing critiques of MacIntyre's work and its organizational application. It then turns to the issues of desire and consumption highlighted in MacIntyre's latest book, drawing also on an extended literature in these areas including insights from Girard's work, and concluding with MacIntyre's contentions in relation to human flourishing. This leads to the extended conceptual framework which is then applied to the issue of climate change. The particular theoretical contribution of the paper is to understand virtuous organizations as playing an important role in the redirection and re-education of desires, leading to the pursuit of goods that we have good reason to desire, and so to the good for individuals and communities, and ultimately to human flourishing within ecological limits. The similarities with and differences from the degrowth/post-growth movement are explored to demonstrate the distinctive contribution a MacIntyrean approach makes. The practical implications of this theoretical contribution are then spelled out, including a consideration of the potential ubiquity or otherwise of this approach, before conclusions are drawn.}, }
@article {pmid36504412, year = {2023}, author = {Queirós, AM and Tait, K and Clark, JR and Bedington, M and Pascoe, C and Torres, R and Somerfield, PJ and Smale, DA}, title = {Identifying and protecting macroalgae detritus sinks toward climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {33}, number = {3}, pages = {e2798}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2798}, pmid = {36504412}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {MR/S032827/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Seaweed/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Wetlands ; Carbon/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Harnessing natural solutions to mitigate climate change requires an understanding of carbon fixation, flux, and sequestration across ocean habitats. Recent studies have suggested that exported seaweed particulate organic carbon is stored within soft-sediment systems. However, very little is known about how seaweed detritus disperses from coastlines, or where it may enter seabed carbon stores, where it could become the target of conservation efforts. Here, focusing on regionally dominant seaweed species, we surveyed environmental DNA (eDNA) from natural coastal sediments, and studied their connectivity to seaweed habitats using a particle tracking model parameterized to reproduce seaweed detritus dispersal behavior based on laboratory observations of seaweed fragment degradation and sinking. Experiments showed that seaweed detritus density changed over time, differently across species. This, in turn, modified distances traveled by released fragments until they reached the seabed for the first time, during model simulations. Dispersal pathways connected detritus from the shore to the open ocean but, importantly, also to coastal sediments, and this was reflected by field eDNA evidence. Dispersion pathways were also affected by hydrodynamic conditions, varying in space and time. Both the properties and timing of released detritus, individual to each macroalgal population, and short-term near-seabed and medium-term water-column transport pathways, are thus seemingly important in determining the connectivity between seaweed habitats and potential sedimentary sinks. Studies such as this one, supported by further field verification of sedimentary carbon sequestration rates and source partitioning, are still needed to help quantify the role of seaweed in the ocean carbon cycle. Such studies will provide vital evidence to inform on the potential need to develop blue carbon conservation mechanisms, beyond wetlands.}, }
@article {pmid36503737, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Veterinary anaesthesia and analgesia}, volume = {50}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-e3}, doi = {10.1016/j.vaa.2022.11.001}, pmid = {36503737}, issn = {1467-2995}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36502819, year = {2023}, author = {The Lancet Infectious Diseases, }, title = {Twin threats: climate change and zoonoses.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00817-9}, pmid = {36502819}, issn = {1474-4457}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Zoonoses/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36502815, year = {2023}, author = {Wyns, A}, title = {COP27 establishes loss and damage fund to respond to human cost of climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {e21-e22}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00331-X}, pmid = {36502815}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Financial Management ; }, }
@article {pmid36502586, year = {2023}, author = {Ojala, M}, title = {Hope and climate-change engagement from a psychological perspective.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {49}, number = {}, pages = {101514}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2022.101514}, pmid = {36502586}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {Humans ; *Emotions ; *Climate Change ; Cognition ; }, abstract = {This article reviews recent research about climate-change hope and engagement. Cognitive climate-change hope is consistently positively related to engagement, while the results are less consistent regarding hope as an emotion. It is argued that when conducting research about hope as an emotion sources of hope need to be considered, since they can be both constructive and less constructive seen from a climate-change engagement perspective. Additionally, collective climate-change action can lead to constructive hope. The conclusion is that in future research there is a need to go beyond the dichotomy between cognition and emotion and in interventions to go beyond optimistic messages and take into account preconditions for constructive hope.}, }
@article {pmid36501310, year = {2022}, author = {Fedorov, N and Kutueva, A and Muldashev, A and Verkhozina, A and Lashchinskiy, N and Martynenko, V}, title = {Analysis of the Potential Range of Anticlea sibirica L. (Kunth) and Its Changes under Moderate Climate Change in the 21st Century.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {36501310}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {No 22-14-00003//Russian Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {The study shows the analysis of the current potential range and the modeling of its changes in the hemiboreal species Anticlea sibirica. The models show the habitat suitability for A. sibirica under moderate climatic changes (RCP4.5) in the middle and second half of the 21st century. For modeling, we used MaxEnt software with the predictors being climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim and a digital elevation model. The modeling has shown that climate change can be favorable for the spread of A. sibirica to the northeastern part of its range by expanding highly suitable habitats in mountainous landscapes along the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk. In the rest of the range, the total area of suitable habitats will decrease. In areas with extremely deteriorating growing conditions, the species will persist in low-competition habitats such as rocky outcrops, riverbanks, and screes. The predicted change in the distribution of A. sibirica indicates a possible strong transformation of the vegetation cover in Siberia and the Urals, even under moderate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36501288, year = {2022}, author = {Qi, Y and Xian, X and Zhao, H and Wang, R and Huang, H and Zhang, Y and Yang, M and Liu, W}, title = {Increased Invasion Risk of Tagetes minuta L. in China under Climate Change: A Study of the Potential Geographical Distributions.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {36501288}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2021YFC2600400//the National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; caascx-2017-2022-IAS//Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Tagetes minuta L., a member of the Tageftes genus belonging to the Asteraceae family, is a well-documented exotic plant native to South America that has become established in China. In this study, 784 occurrence records and 12 environmental variables were used to predict the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of T. minuta under current and future climatic changes using an optimized MaxEnt model. The results showed that (1) three out of the twelve variables contributed the most to the model performance: isothermality (bio3), precipitation in the driest quarter (bio17), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) the PGDs of T. minuta under the current climate covered 62.06 × 10[4] km[2], mainly in North, South, and Southwest China; and (3) climate changes will facilitate the expansion of the PGDs of T. minuta under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in both the 2030s and 2050s. The centroid of suitable habitats under SSP2-4.5 moved the longest distance. T. minuta has the capacity to expand in China, especially in Yunnan, where there exist no occurrence records. Customs, ports, and adjacent regions should strengthen the quarantine of imported goods and mobile personnel for T. minuta, and introduced seedlings should be isolated to minimize their introduction risk.}, }
@article {pmid36501233, year = {2022}, author = {Mendoza-Fernández, AJ and Fernández-Ceular, &#xc1; and Alcaraz-Segura, D and Ballesteros, M and Peñas, J}, title = {The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {36501233}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {UAL2020-RNM-B2007, I+D+i UAL-FEDER//Metabarcoding comparado de la rizosfera en tres ambientes ed&#xe1;ficos singulares explotados por la miner&#xed;a: bases para el desarrollo sostenible/ ; CGL2010-16357//Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; }, abstract = {Mediterranean high-mountain endemic species are particularly vulnerable to climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and snow-cover dynamics. Sierra Nevada (Spain) is a biodiversity hotspot in the western Mediterranean, with an enormous plant species richness and endemicity. Moehringia fontqueri is a threatened endemic plant restricted to north-facing siliceous rocks along a few ridges of the eastern Sierra Nevada. To guide conservation actions against climate change effects, here we propose the simultaneous assessment of the current reproductive success and the possible species' range changes between current and future climatic conditions, assessing separately different subpopulations by altitude. Reproductive success was tested through the seed-set data analysis. The species' current habitat suitability was modeled in Maxent using species occurrences, topographic, satellite and climatic variables. Future habitat suitability was carried out for two climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). The results showed the lowest reproductive success at the lowest altitudes, and vice versa at the highest altitudes. Habitat suitability decreased by 80% from current conditions to the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5). The lowest subpopulations were identified as the most vulnerable to climate change effects while the highest ones were the nearest to future suitable habitats. Our simultaneous assessment of reproductive success and habitat suitability aims to serve as a model to guide conservation, management and climate change mitigation strategies through adaptive management to safeguard the persistence of the maximum genetic pool of Mediterranean high-mountain plants threatened by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36498371, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, G and Huang, S and Zhang, Y and Zhao, S and Han, C}, title = {How Has Climate Change Driven the Evolution of Rice Distribution in China?.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {36498371}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {21ZDA056//Major Projects of the National Social Science Foundation of China/ ; 41871184//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 10-IAED-01-2022//Science and Technology Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Oryza ; China ; Food ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Estimating the impact of climate change risks on rice distribution is one of the most important elements of climate risk management. This paper is based on the GEE (Google Earth Engine) platform and multi-source remote sensing data; the authors quantitatively extracted rice production distribution data in China from 1990 to 2019, analysed the evolution pattern of rice distribution and clusters and explored the driving effects between climatic and environmental conditions on the evolution of rice production distribution using the non-parametric quantile regression model. The results show that: The spatial variation of rice distribution is significant, mainly concentrated in the northeast, south and southwest regions of China; the distribution of rice in the northeast is expanding, while the distribution of rice in the south is extending northward, showing a spatial evolution trend of "north rising and south retreating". The positive effect of precipitation on the spatial distribution of rice has a significant threshold. This shows that when precipitation is greater than 800 mm, there is a significant positive effect on the spatial distribution of rice production, and this effect will increase with precipitation increases. Climate change may lead to a continuous northward shift in the extent of rice production, especially extending to the northwest of China. This paper's results will help implement more spatially targeted climate change adaptation measures for rice to cope with the changes in food production distribution caused by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36498239, year = {2022}, author = {Feng, S and Zhang, Y and Gao, F and Li, M and Zhu, L and Wen, H and Xi, Y and Xiang, X}, title = {Inhibitory Effects of Antipsychotic Chlorpromazine on the Survival, Reproduction and Population Growth Other Than Neurotransmitters of Zooplankton in Light of Global Warming.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {36498239}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {31872208//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; GXXT-2020-075//University Synergy Innovation Program of Anhui Province/ ; KJ2020A0632//Natural Science Foundation in College of Anhui Province/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Zooplankton ; Population Growth ; *Antipsychotic Agents/toxicity ; Chlorpromazine/toxicity ; Ecosystem ; Dopamine ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity ; *Rotifera/physiology ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Global warming and environmental pollution have created a unique combination of abiotic and biotic stresses to zooplankton. However, little information is available on the effects of antipsychotic drugs commonly used to treat psychosis, such as chlorpromazine (CPZ), on non-target aquatic organisms in light of global warming. This study investigated how dopamine concentrations (DAC), acute toxicity and chronic toxicity of Brachionus calyciflorus changed in response to CPZ and gradually increasing temperatures. The results showed that the concentration range of rotifer DAC was 1.06~2.51 ng/g. At 18, 25 and 32 °C, the 24 h LC50 was 1.795, 1.242 and 0.833 mg/L, respectively. Compared to the control, exposure to CPZ significantly decreased life expectancy at hatching, the net reproduction rate, generation time, population growth rate and dopamine concentration of B. calyciflorus in all three temperatures (p < 0.05). The toxicity of CPZ to rotifers was increased by high temperature. These findings indicated that CPZ is highly toxic to rotifers, displaying high ecological risks to aquatic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid36497906, year = {2022}, author = {Chawdhery, MRA and Al-Mueed, M and Wazed, MA and Emran, SA and Chowdhury, MAH and Hussain, SG}, title = {Climate Change Impacts Assessment Using Crop Simulation Model Intercomparison Approach in Northern Indo-Gangetic Basin of Bangladesh.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {36497906}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Agriculture/methods ; *Oryza ; Acclimatization ; Triticum ; }, abstract = {The climate change impacts of South Asia (SA) are inextricably linked with increased monsoon variability and a clearly deteriorating trend with more frequent deficit monsoons. One of the most climate-vulnerable nations in the eastern and central Indo-Gangetic Basin is Bangladesh. There have been numerous studies on the effects of climate change in Bangladesh; however, most of them tended to just look at a small fraction of the impact elements or were climatic projections without accounting for the effects on agriculture. Additionally, simulation studies using the CERES-Rice and CERES-Wheat models were conducted for rice and wheat to evaluate the effects of climate change on Bangladeshi agriculture. However, up to now, Bangladesh has not implemented farming system ideas by integrating cropping systems with other income-generating activities. This study was conducted as part of the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) regional evaluations using the protocols and integrated assessment processes of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). It was also done to calibrate crop models (APSIM and DSSAT) using rice and wheat. To assist policymakers in creating national and regional plans for anticipated future agricultural systems, our work on the integrated evaluation of climate change impacts on agricultural systems produced realistic predictions. The outcome of this research prescribes a holistic assessment of climate change on future production systems by including all the relevant enterprises in the agriculture sector. The findings of the study suggested two major strategies to minimize the yield and increase the profitability in a rice-wheat cropping system. Using a short-term HYV (High Yielding Variety) of rice can shift the sowing time of wheat by 7 days in advance compared to the traditional sowing days of mid-November. In addition, increasing the irrigation amount by 50 mm for wheat showed a better yield by 1.5-32.2% in different scenarios. These climate change adaptation measures could increase the per capita income by as high as 3.6% on the farm level.}, }
@article {pmid36497842, year = {2022}, author = {Chen, D and Guo, Y and Wang, C and Xu, Y and Zhang, H}, title = {Dispersion and Disparity: Bibliometric and Visualized Analysis of Research on Climate Change Science Communication.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {36497842}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Bibliometrics ; Interdisciplinary Communication ; }, abstract = {Research on climate change science communication began in the 1980s and is showing continued vitality and a wider interest at present. In order to track the development of global research on the communication of climate change hot topics and frontier progress since the 21st century, methods such as bibliometrics and co-word network analysis were used to analyze the publication of research papers in this field, and a total of 1175 valid papers published in 2000-2021 in the WOS core database were counted. Different dimensions such as temporal trend, spatial distribution, and author collaboration network were analyzed. The results show that, (1) climate change communication research has become a relatively independent research field and has entered a rapid development stage, and this field still has a broad research prospect in the new understanding of climate change and new international context. (2) At present, research in this field is still dominated by developed countries, but developing countries are actively building their unique climate communication discourse. (3) Public understanding and media information presentation have been hot topics in climate communication research in recent years. In the context of changing international situations and the development of global epidemics and new climate policies, changes in national actions will likely lead to new research topics and dialogues. Research shows that climate change science communication research is increasingly showing a trend of decentralization and differentiation.}, }
@article {pmid36497723, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, Y and Zhang, X and Li, Y and Liu, Y and Sun, B and Wang, Y and Zhou, Z and Zheng, L and Zhang, L and Yao, X and Cheng, Y}, title = {Knowledge, Attitude, Risk Perception, and Health-Related Adaptive Behavior of Primary School Children towards Climate Change: A Cross-Sectional Study in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {36497723}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Female ; Child ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Attitude ; China ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Adaptation, Psychological ; Perception ; Schools ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Children are disproportionately affected by climate change while evidence regarding their adaptive behavior and relevant influencing factors is limited.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We attempted to investigate health-related adaptive behavior towards climate change for primary school children in China and explore potential influencing factors.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a survey of 8322 primary school children in 12 cities across China. Knowledge, attitude, risk perception, and adaptive behavior scores for children were collected using a designed questionnaire. Weather exposures of cities were collected from 2014 to 2018. We applied a multiple linear regression and mixed-effect regression to assess the influencing factors of adaptive behavior. We also used the structural equation model (SEM) to validate the theoretical framework of adaptive behavior.<br><br>RESULTS: Most children (76.1%) were aware of climate change. They mainly get information from television, smartphones, and the Internet. A 1 score increase in knowledge, attitude, and risk perception was associated with 0.210, 0.386, and 0.160 increase in adaptive behavior scores, respectively. Females and children having air conditioners or heating systems at home were positively associated with adaptive behavior. Exposure to cold and rainstorms increased the adaptive behavior scores, while heat exposure had the opposite effects. The SEM showed that knowledge was positively associated with attitude and risk perception. Knowledge, attitude, and risk perception corresponded to 31.6%, 22.8%, and 26.1% changes of adaptive behavior, respectively.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Most primary school children in China were aware of climate change. Knowledge, attitude, risk perception, cold, and rainstorm exposure were positively associated with health-related adaptive behavior towards climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36497722, year = {2022}, author = {Feng, Y and Zhao, T}, title = {Exploring the Nonlinear Relationship between Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the Context of Global Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {36497722}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Economic Development ; *Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Renewable Energy ; Gross Domestic Product ; }, abstract = {In recent years, the impact of global climate change has increasingly revealed that energy transformation has become an indispensable part of achieving carbon neutrality. Thus, the relationship between energy transformation and economic growth has become the focus of academic attention. This study examines energy transition issues by using the panel threshold method. It explores the nonlinear impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth, identifies various factors that lead to this nonlinear impact, and verifies its threshold effect. A comprehensive analysis reveals the following. (1) Overall, renewable energy consumption inhibits real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but, in the long run, the negative impact becomes positive. (2) The threshold effect of energy consumption intensity (EI) is significant, with a threshold value of approximately 3.213. This means that when EI ≤ 3.213, renewable energy consumption promotes economic growth. However, EI > 3.213 indicates that this impact is significantly negative, which means that advancing the energy transition at this time may occur at the expense of real GDP growth. (3) There is also a significant threshold effect in energy transformation, with a threshold value of approximately 6.456. Similarly, when energy consumption transition (ET) ≤ 6.456, renewable energy consumption dampens real economic growth, and the economic cost of promoting renewable energy consumption is greater at this time. Alternatively, when ET > 6.456, this impact is significant at the 1 percent level and significantly positive. (4) There is also a significant threshold effect for emerging technologies, with a threshold value of approximately 1.367. When ET ≤ 1.367, renewable energy consumption dampens real economic growth, and the economic cost of promoting renewable energy consumption is greater. When ET > 1.367, the impact is significantly positive at the 1% level. To promote the positive development of economic growth, climate change, and energy transition, the nonlinear relationship studied in this paper can fill the gaps in existing research in theory and provide a theoretical basis for the government to adopt different policies at different stages of the energy transition to lay the foundation for improving global climate change in practice.}, }
@article {pmid36497689, year = {2022}, author = {Mansouri, A and Wei, W and Alessandrini, JM and Mandin, C and Blondeau, P}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Indoor Air Quality: A Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {36497689}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Air Pollution, Indoor/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Volatile Organic Compounds/analysis ; Air Conditioning ; }, abstract = {Climate change can affect the indoor environment due to heat and mass transfers between indoor and outdoor environments. To mitigate climate change impacts and adapt buildings to the changing environment, changes in building characteristics and occupants' behavior may occur. To characterize the effects of climate change on indoor air quality (IAQ), the present review focused on four aspects: (1) experimental and modeling studies that relate IAQ to future environmental conditions, (2) evolution of indoor and outdoor air concentrations in the coming years with regard to temperature rise, (3) climate change mitigation and adaptation actions in the building sector, and (4) evolution of human behavior in the context of climate change. In the indoor environment, experimental and modeling studies on indoor air pollutants highlighted a combined effect of temperature and relative humidity on pollutant emissions from indoor sources. Five IAQ models developed for future climate data were identified in the literature. In the outdoor environment, the increasing ambient temperature may lead directly or indirectly to changes in ozone, particle, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compound concentrations in some regions of the world depending on the assumptions made about temperature evolution, anthropogenic emissions, and regional regulation. Infiltration into buildings of outdoor air pollutants is governed by many factors, including temperature difference between indoors and outdoors, and might increase in the years to come during summer and decrease during other seasons. On the other hand, building codes in some countries require a higher airtightness for new and retrofitted buildings. The building adaptation actions include the reinforcement of insulation, implementation of new materials and smart building technologies, and a more systematic and possibly longer use of air conditioning systems in summer compared to nowadays. Moreover, warmer winters, springs, and autumns may induce an increasing duration of open windows in these seasons, while the use of air conditioning in summer may reduce the duration of open windows.}, }
@article {pmid36496757, year = {2022}, author = {Villero, D and Montori, A and Llorente, GA and Roura-Pascual, N and Geniez, P and Brotons, L}, title = {Global Warming and Long-Distance Spread of Invasive Discoglossus pictus (Amphibia, Alytidae): Conservation Implications for Protected Amphibians in the Iberian Peninsula.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {12}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {36496757}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Discoglossus pictus is a North African amphibian that was introduced in southern France early the 20th century and has spread south and north along the Mediterranean coastal plains up to 170 km. In order to disentangle the conservation implications of the spread of D. pictus for sensitive native species, we examined the impact of long-term climate warming on the basis of niche overlap analysis, taking into account abiotic factors. The study area covered the distribution ranges of all genus Discoglossus species in northwestern Africa (659,784 km[2]), Sicily (27,711 km[2]), the Iberian Peninsula, and southern France (699,546 km[2]). Niche overlap was measured from species environmental spaces extracted via PCA, including climate and relief environmental variables. Current and future climatic suitability for each species was assessed in an ensemble-forecasting framework of species distribution models, built using contemporary species data and climate predictors and projected to 2070's climatic conditions. Our results show a strong climatic niche overlap between D. pictus and native and endemic species in the Iberian Peninsula. In this context, all species will experience an increase in climatic suitability over the next decades, with the only exception being Pelodytes punctatus, which could be negatively affected by synergies between global warming and cohabitation with D. pictus.}, }
@article {pmid36495889, year = {2022}, author = {Steenmeijer, MA and Rodrigues, JFD and Zijp, MC and Waaijers-van der Loop, SL}, title = {The environmental impact of the Dutch health-care sector beyond climate change: an input-output analysis.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {e949-e957}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00244-3}, pmid = {36495889}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Carbon Footprint ; Health Care Sector ; Agriculture ; Delivery of Health Care ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Studies suggest that the Dutch health-care sector is responsible for 4-8% of the national carbon footprint, but the environmental footprint of this sector beyond climate change is not well understood. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the environmental footprint of the Dutch health-care sector for a range of environmental impact categories.<br><br>METHODS: In this input-output analysis, we used Exiobase (version 3), which contains data on global trade flows and their associated environmental impact, in combination with health-care expenditure data from Statistics Netherlands. We covered the impact categories: climate change, blue water consumption, abiotic material extraction, land use, and total waste generation. The calculated sectoral footprint was the sum of all impacts associated with the operational phase (direct impact) and impacts occurring in the value chain of purchased goods and services (indirect impact) given an expenditure vector. The expenditure vector was the sum of three elements of health-care expenditure: health-care services; pharmaceuticals and chemical products; and medical appliances. We calculated the impact share of health care on the total Dutch consumption footprint. We evaluated the contribution to the impact categories from the categories that composed the expenditure vector. We did a hotspot analysis in which the indirect impact was split according to where (sector, geography, or both) the impact physically occurred. These top-down results were complemented with bottom-up data on emissions from pressurised metered-dose inhalers, anaesthetic gases, and private travel.<br><br>FINDINGS: The health-care sector's share of the national footprint was highest for material extraction (13&#xb7;0%), followed by blue water consumption (7&#xb7;5%), climate change (7&#xb7;3%), land use (7&#xb7;2%), and waste generation (4&#xb7;2%). Pharmaceuticals and other chemical products were the biggest contributors to all impacts. The sectors contributing to climate change were more evenly distributed than the sectors contributing to the other impact categories. The mining sector mostly contributed to material extraction and the agricultural sector contributed largely to blue water consumption and land use. The mining sector and the agricultural sector were the main contributors to waste generation. Climate change occurred mainly in the Netherlands, whereas the other impacts mainly occurred abroad.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: The Dutch health-care sector contributes to a broad set of environmental impact categories beyond climate change. Our results will help stakeholders involved in the health-care sector to pinpoint topics that need to be prioritised and to prevent trade-offs by addressing multiple environmental issues simultaneously.<br><br>FUNDING: Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport.}, }
@article {pmid36483507, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien Mohammad, S and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Health SA = SA Gesondheid}, volume = {27}, number = {}, pages = {2218}, pmid = {36483507}, issn = {2071-9736}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, }
@article {pmid36483320, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien Mohammad, S and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {African journal of laboratory medicine}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2080}, pmid = {36483320}, issn = {2225-2002}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, }
@article {pmid36482670, year = {2022}, author = {Barkin, JL and Philipsborn, RP and Curry, CL and Upadhyay, S and Geller, PA and Pardon, M and Dimmock, J and Bridges, CC and Sikes, CA and Kondracki, AJ and Buoli, M}, title = {Climate Change is an Emerging Threat to Perinatal Mental Health.}, journal = {Journal of the American Psychiatric Nurses Association}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {10783903221139831}, doi = {10.1177/10783903221139831}, pmid = {36482670}, issn = {1532-5725}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: In this discussion, we build the case for why climate change is an emerging threat to perinatal mental health.<br><br>METHOD: A search of current literature on perinatal and maternal mental health and extreme weather events was conducted in PubMed/MEDLINE and Web of Science databases. Only articles focusing on maternal mental health were included in this narrative review.<br><br>RESULTS: The perinatal period represents a potentially challenging timeframe for women for several reasons. Necessary role adjustments (reprioritization), changes in one's ability to access pre-birth levels (and types) of social support, fluctuating hormones, changes in body shape, and possible complications during pregnancy, childbirth, or postpartum are just a few of the factors that can impact perinatal mental health. Trauma is also a risk factor for negative mood symptoms and can be experienced as the result of many different types of events, including exposure to extreme weather/natural disasters.<br><br>CONCLUSION: While the concepts of "eco-anxiety," "climate despair," and "climate anxiety" have garnered attention in the mainstream media, there is little to no discussion of how the climate crisis impacts maternal mental health. This is an important omission as the mother's mental health impacts the family unit as a whole.}, }
@article {pmid36482280, year = {2023}, author = {Fradgley, NS and Bacon, J and Bentley, AR and Costa-Neto, G and Cottrell, A and Crossa, J and Cuevas, J and Kerton, M and Pope, E and Swarbreck, SM and Gardner, KA}, title = {Prediction of near-term climate change impacts on UK wheat quality and the potential for adaptation through plant breeding.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {5}, pages = {1296-1313}, pmid = {36482280}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {BB/M011194/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/M011194/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Triticum/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Plant Breeding ; Acclimatization ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Wheat is a major crop worldwide, mainly cultivated for human consumption and animal feed. Grain quality is paramount in determining its value and downstream use. While we know that climate change threatens global crop yields, a better understanding of impacts on wheat end-use quality is also critical. Combining quantitative genetics with climate model outputs, we investigated UK-wide trends in genotypic adaptation for wheat quality traits. In our approach, we augmented genomic prediction models with environmental characterisation of field trials to predict trait values and climate effects in historical field trial data between 2001 and 2020. Addition of environmental covariates, such as temperature and rainfall, successfully enabled prediction of genotype by environment interactions (G × E), and increased prediction accuracy of most traits for new genotypes in new year cross validation. We then extended predictions from these models to much larger numbers of simulated environments using climate scenarios projected under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 for 2050-2069. We found geographically varying climate change impacts on wheat quality due to contrasting associations between specific weather covariables and quality traits across the UK. Notably, negative impacts on quality traits were predicted in the East of the UK due to increased summer temperatures while the climate in the North and South-west may become more favourable with increased summer temperatures. Furthermore, by projecting 167,040 simulated future genotype-environment combinations, we found only limited potential for breeding to exploit predictable G × E to mitigate year-to-year environmental variability for most traits except Hagberg falling number. This suggests low adaptability of current UK wheat germplasm across future UK climates. More generally, approaches demonstrated here will be critical to enable adaptation of global crops to near-term climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36481854, year = {2023}, author = {de Moura, FR and da Silva Júnior, FMR}, title = {2030 Agenda: discussion on Brazilian priorities facing air pollution and climate change challenges.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {8376-8390}, pmid = {36481854}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {310856/2020-5//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 001//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; 21/2551-0001981-6//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Air Pollution ; Environmental Pollution ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {The advance of human activities in a disorderly way has accelerated in recent decades, intensifying the environmental impacts directly linked to these practices. The atmosphere, essential for the maintenance of life, is increasingly saturated with pollutants, offering risks to practically all the inhabitants of the planet, a process that, in addition to causing illness and early mortality, is related to serious financial losses (including in the production of goods), dangerous temperature increase and severe natural disasters. Although this perception is not recent, the global initiative to control the different mechanisms that trigger the commitment of biodiversity and irreversible climate changes arising from pollution is still very incipient, given that global initiatives on the subject emerged just over 50 years ago. Brazil is a territory that centralizes many of these discussions, as it still faces both political and economic obstacles in achieving a sustainable growth model as it was agreed through the United Nations 2030 Agenda. Even though there is little time left for the completion of these goals, much remains to be done, and despite the fulfillment of this deadline, the works will certainly need to be extended for much longer until an effective reorientation of consciousness occurs. Scientific researches and discussions are fundamental tools to the understanding of issues still little explored in this field.}, }
@article {pmid36481704, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, J and Shi, K and Paerl, HW and Rühland, KM and Yuan, Y and Wang, R and Chen, J and Ge, M and Zheng, L and Zhang, Z and Qin, B and Liu, J and Smol, JP}, title = {Ancient DNA reveals potentially toxic cyanobacteria increasing with climate change.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {229}, number = {}, pages = {119435}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2022.119435}, pmid = {36481704}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Humans ; *DNA, Ancient ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Eutrophication ; *Cyanobacteria/genetics ; Lakes/microbiology ; China ; }, abstract = {Cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater systems are a global threat to human and aquatic ecosystem health, exhibiting particularly harmful effects when toxin-producing taxa are present. While climatic change and nutrient over-enrichment control the global expansion of total cyanobacterial blooms, it remains unknown to what extent this expansion reflected cyanobacterial assemblage due to the scarcity of long-term monitoring data. Here we use high-throughput sequencing of sedimentary DNA to track ∼100 years of changes in cyanobacterial community in hyper-eutrophic Lake Taihu, China's third largest freshwater lake and the key water source for ∼30 million people. A steady increase in the abundance of Microcystis (as potential toxin producers) during the past thirty years was correlated with increasing temperatures and declining wind speeds, but not with temporal trends in lakewater nutrient concentrations, highlighting recent climate effects on potentially increasing toxin-producing taxa. The socio-environmental repercussions of these findings are worrisome as continued anthropogenic climate change may counteract nutrient amelioration efforts in this critical freshwater resource.}, }
@article {pmid36480945, year = {2023}, author = {Abid, MA and Abid, MB}, title = {Climate change and the increased burden of dengue fever in Pakistan.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {17-18}, doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00808-8}, pmid = {36480945}, issn = {1474-4457}, mesh = {Humans ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Dengue/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Disease Outbreaks ; }, }
@article {pmid36480087, year = {2023}, author = {Das, S and Mishra, AJ}, title = {Climate change and the Western Himalayan community: Exploring the local perspective through food choices.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {534-545}, pmid = {36480087}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; India ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {The local belief systems are crucial for climate change adaptation. Even climate experts are unanimous about the fundamental association between local beliefs and climate change adaptation strategies. However, the local perspective is missing from the significant policy dialog platforms. The local beliefs can potentially serve as both objective and psychological refuge for local societies during climate-related emergencies. Similarly, only limited studies have acknowledged the significance of local food choices, providing a model for global responses to climate change. The objective of the study is (i) to explore the local community's insights and awareness of climate change and (ii) to assess the impact on local food choices affecting their food security in the face of climate change in the Western Himalayan Region, India. The study is based on 210 in-depth household interviews and surveys in 10 villages of Uttarakhand, India. The exploratory factor and thematic analysis results highlight the significance of local perception of climatic variabilities, food choices, and beliefs in climate change adaptation policies. Hence, the current study's outcomes emphasize on the integration and promotion of both scientific methods and local knowledge for inclusive climate change adaptation and food security policies in the Himalayan Region.}, }
@article {pmid36479418, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien Mohammad, S and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Southern African journal of HIV medicine}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {1467}, pmid = {36479418}, issn = {2078-6751}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, }
@article {pmid36478846, year = {2022}, author = {Ghaffari, A and Nasseri, M and Pasebani Someeh, A}, title = {Assessing the economic effects of drought using Positive Mathematical Planning model under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e11941}, pmid = {36478846}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {In recent decades, regions all around the world have experienced severe droughts adversely affecting their agricultural production. Climate change, along with limited access to water will alter future production and agricultural development. The purpose of this study is to provide a perspective for the future cultivation regime in the Divandarre region in the Sepidrood catchment in Iran, using historical climatic, agricultural, and economic information. Future precipitation values are determined for three climate scenarios, then downscaled and converted to pixel-based precipitation maps using the Moving Least Squares method. Future droughts are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index at 3, 6, and 9-month intervals based on precipitation values and the relationship between different types of droughts (meteorological, agricultural and hydrological). We introduce a new coefficient, the water cost coefficient, derived from drought characteristics that captures the added irrigation cost in drought years because of increased water price. Using the Positive Mathematical Planning method and considering limited land and water, predicted future prices and costs based on a linear regression of supply-demand, and the annual water cost coefficient values, an agroeconomic model is built. After prediction of future price and cost based on historical data from 2005 to 2018, we run future scenarios based on various price and cost values to determine the optimal annual cultivation area for each crop from 2020 to 2040. All scenarios indicate a decline in cultivation area for all crops making agriculture less beneficial in the future. The cultivation regime moves away from more water-consuming products with less economic value (e.g. watermelon) toward less water-consuming, more expensive products (e.g. lentils). The findings of this model along with expert economic judgments help determine the economic effects of climate change on irrigation, farmers' decisions, and water policies, including water markets, and improving irrigation efficiency. Authorities and farmers could adapt to drought shocks and changes in the market while experiencing less revenue loss.}, }
@article {pmid36478681, year = {2023}, author = {Nyiwul, L}, title = {Climate change adaptation innovation in the water sector in Africa: Dataset.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {46}, number = {}, pages = {108782}, pmid = {36478681}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {The dataset covers the determinants of adaptation innovation in the water sector in Africa over the period 1990-2016. The data is collected from secondary sources; namely the World Bank, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development databases and the University of Notre Dame's Global Adaptation Initiative. The data is focused on susceptibility to water stress caused by climate change and the public response in the form of technology development. The analysis performed on the data focused on the degree to which exposure to the risk of water insecurity is a motivating factor in the public response. In the analysis, an econometric model was specified for a relationship between a measure of water stress induced by climate change and adaptation innovation, along with a series of socio-economic and socio-political indicators as controls. Sustainable development practitioners, environmental and social scientists with research and teaching interests on Africa will find the dataset very useful. Sustainable development practitioners can use the data to chart simple trends and for other summative purposes. The data can also be used to make regional or geopolitical comparisons on the same subject of our analysis. Furthermore, with similar technology innovation data on other sectors exposed to climate change risks, comparisons of public responses can be undertaken to understand relative effectiveness of climate change adaptation responses. Crucially, the simple format of the data makes it a very convenient teaching tool in a statistics or econometrics class.}, }
@article {pmid36477074, year = {2022}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Alam, GMM and Nagy, GJ and Rahman, MM and Roy, S and Wolf, F and Kovaleva, M and Saroar, M and Li, C}, title = {Climate change adaptation responses among riparian settlements: A case study from Bangladesh.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {12}, pages = {e0278605}, pmid = {36477074}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Bangladesh ; }, abstract = {As transition areas between aquatic ecosystems and the adjacent terrestrial ones, riparian regions are highly exposed to coastal climate hazards. This article describes how climate change and extreme weather impact vulnerable riparian communities and settlements. The analysis is done by reviewing past research and empirical case studies from riparian rural communities of the impact zone of the Sundarbans in Bangladesh, the world's most extensive mangrove forest. The article discusses the climate-related impacts on households through a Severity Index of Vulnerability and assesses the adaptation responses they may pursue. The principal climate-related vulnerabilities and impacts due to increases in temperature, storm surges, sea flooding, and sea-level rise are seawater intrusion and riverbank erosion. Many households have adopted several autonomous reactive adaptation strategies rather than planned ones, to cope with these impacts. However, government organisations and NGOs provide less than optimal technical and financial support to households for planned and anticipatory adaptive responses. The main barriers to adaptation were the high cost of improved crop varieties, inadequate agricultural extension services, and a lack of knowledge on effective climate adaptation. The restoration of the mangrove ecosystem may increase its resilience and, among other things, make local communities less exposed. The article also presents some adaptation measures proper to reduce the climate-related vulnerability of riparian settlements.}, }
@article {pmid36475262, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {Ethiopian journal of health sciences}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {1057-1060}, pmid = {36475262}, issn = {2413-7170}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36474541, year = {2022}, author = {Mahmood, J and Guinto, RR}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: Emerging Evidence and Call to Action.}, journal = {The Malaysian journal of medical sciences : MJMS}, volume = {29}, number = {5}, pages = {1-4}, pmid = {36474541}, issn = {1394-195X}, }
@article {pmid36474092, year = {2023}, author = {Londe, DW and Joshi, O and York, BC and Davis, CA and Loss, SR and Robertson, EP and Hovick, TJ}, title = {Climate Change and Wetlands in the Southern Great Plains: How Are Managers Dealing with an Uncertain Future?.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {71}, number = {2}, pages = {379-392}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-022-01758-w}, pmid = {36474092}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Wetlands ; *Climate Change ; Uncertainty ; Water ; Introduced Species ; }, abstract = {Little guidance is available to assist wetland managers in developing climate adaptation plans. To facilitate development of recommendations for adaptation strategies, it is essential to first determine if or how wetland managers are addressing these challenges. We used an online survey to solicit feedback from wetland managers and biologists in the Southern Great Plains of North America to gain information on perceptions of wetland managers regarding climate change; assess how the effects of climate change are being addressed through management; and identify barriers to implementing climate change adaptation. The majority of wetland managers (63%) agreed they are currently experiencing effects of climate change in wetlands, and most respondents (76%) reported that changes in the timing of water availability throughout the year was the most likely impact. Managers reported using a diversity of approaches in managing for changing precipitation, with management of native and invasive plant species being the two most common practices. Lack of funding and personnel were the most commonly identified factors limiting manager's response to changing precipitation patterns. In addition, >50% of managers indicated uncertainty about the effects of climate change on wetlands as a barrier to management, which may relate to limited access to peer-reviewed science. While most of the management practices reported were short-term measures and may not reflect long-term adaptation for climate change, the fact that many managers are considering climate change in their management suggests that there is considerable opportunities to continue developing capacity for climate change adaptation in the region.}, }
@article {pmid36473499, year = {2022}, author = {Bonnin, L and Tran, A and Herbreteau, V and Marcombe, S and Boyer, S and Mangeas, M and Menkes, C}, title = {Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Dengue Vector Densities in Southeast Asia through Process-Based Modeling.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {130}, number = {12}, pages = {127002}, pmid = {36473499}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes are major vectors for several human diseases of global importance, such as dengue and yellow fever. Their life cycles and hosted arboviruses are climate sensitive and thus expected to be impacted by climate change. Most studies investigating climate change impacts on Aedes at global or continental scales focused on their future global distribution changes, whereas a single study focused on its effects on Ae. aegypti densities regionally.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: A process-based approach was used to model densities of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and their potential evolution with climate change using a panel of nine CMIP6 climate models and climate scenarios ranging from strong to low mitigation measures at the Southeast Asian scale and for the next 80 y.<br><br>METHODS: The process-based model described, through a system of ordinary differential equations, the variations of mosquito densities in 10 compartments, corresponding to 10 different stages of mosquito life cycle, in response to temperature and precipitation variations. Local field data were used to validate model outputs.<br><br>RESULTS: We show that both species densities will globally increase due to future temperature increases. In Southeast Asia by the end of the century, Ae. aegypti densities are expected to increase from 25% with climate mitigation measures to 46% without; Ae. albopictus densities are expected to increase from 13%-21%, respectively. However, we find spatially contrasted responses at the seasonal scales with a significant decrease in Ae. albopictus densities in lowlands during summer in the future.<br><br>DISCUSSION: These results contrast with previous results, which brings new insight on the future impacts of climate change on Aedes densities. Major sources of uncertainties, such as mosquito model parametrization and climate model uncertainties, were addressed to explore the limits of such modeling. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11068.}, }
@article {pmid36472741, year = {2023}, author = {Tasnim, Z and Saha, SM and Hossain, ME and Khan, MA}, title = {Perception of and adaptation to climate change: the case of wheat farmers in northwest Bangladesh.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {12}, pages = {32839-32853}, pmid = {36472741}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {Grant no. 2018/573/AU-GC//Bangladesh Agricultural University Research System/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Farmers ; *Triticum ; Climate Change ; Bangladesh ; Agriculture/methods ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Climate change's impact on crop production is a global concern. A better understanding of farmers' perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies will benefit farmers and policymakers in outlining an effective adaptation mechanism to climate change. Therefore, this study assessed wheat farmers' perceptions of climate change, identified major adaptation strategies, factors influencing adaptations, and barriers to effective adaptation by surveying 160 wheat farmers in northwest Bangladesh. The results revealed that farmers experienced more frequent droughts due to higher temperatures, decreased and irregular precipitation, reduced ground and surface water availability, and shorter winter seasons over the last two decades. Key adaptation strategies identified were more irrigation, switching to other crops, and changing fertilizer and insecticide usage. Multinomial logit model results indicate that farming experience, access to climate information and extension services, access to subsidies, farm size, family size, and electricity for irrigation were the significant factors influencing farmers' adaptation decisions. Limited access to climate information, inadequate knowledge of appropriate adaptation measures, and low price of wheat represented major adaptation barriers. The study recommends strengthening agricultural research and extension services to farmers, including education and training, to develop effective adaptation strategies to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36471841, year = {2022}, author = {Arifah,  and Salman, D and Yassi, A and Bahsar-Demmallino, E}, title = {Climate change impacts and the rice farmers' responses at irrigated upstream and downstream in Indonesia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e11923}, pmid = {36471841}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The responses of farmers have become a concern in research on climate change and its adaptation in developing countries. Several analyses have been carried out on farmers' responses of rainfed or irrigated rice fields. However, there is no research on the adaptation strategy of farmers in the downstream part of irrigation, which limits the decision-making process. Despite the irrigation facilities, the downstream rice fields are more susceptible to drought because the opportunity to get water is very small, especially during a long dry season due to climate change. Therefore, this research aims to analyze and compare the farmers' knowledge, perceptions, and adaptation efforts in the downstream and upstream irrigation areas of the Bulukumba Regency, South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. The grounded theory method was used when the data were collected iteratively which facilitate the process of forming new concepts. A total of 55 in-depth interviews were conducted with farmers using two languages, namely Bugis (local language) and Indonesian to easily understand the research questions. The basic theory as a finding from this study showed that the concept of climate change impacts for farmers in the downstream is different from farmers in the upstream area, in terms of causal conditions, action/reaction and consequences. Farmers in the downstream perceived that the causes of climate change impacts were water shortages and rising temperatures. Adaptation strategy were carried out through the use of local and non-local knowledge in order to reduce the vulnerability of farmers' livelihood systems. Meanwhile, farmers in upstream areas revealed that pest explosions and rising temperatures were the causal conditions caused by climate change. To deal with these impacts, farmers tend to use non-local knowledge such as chemical pesticides and pest-resistant seeds. Through this adaptation, farmers could reduce the problem of pest explosions. Based on the results, the adoption of an adaptive climate change impact management policy with a participatory approach was recommended.}, }
@article {pmid36471796, year = {2023}, author = {Wanjala, G and Kusuma Astuti, P and Bagi, Z and Kichamu, N and Strausz, P and Kusza, S}, title = {A review on the potential effects of environmental and economic factors on sheep genetic diversity: Consequences of climate change.}, journal = {Saudi journal of biological sciences}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {103505}, pmid = {36471796}, issn = {1319-562X}, abstract = {Climate change has a significant effect on the productivity of livestock including milk, meat, and reproduction. This could be attributed to the internal diversion of energy resources towards adaptive mechanisms. Among the climate change variables, thermal stress seems to be the major limiting factor in animal agriculture. A better understanding of the effects of climate change-influenced ecological factors on the genetic diversity of livestock species is warranted. Sheep is an ideal livestock species to be used in investigating environmental adaptation due to its wide range of agroecological habitats, genetic and phenotypic variability. There is a heavy reliance on sheep genetic diversity for future animal protein security, but the implications of climate change on their genetic diversity receive less attention. Here, the potential environmental factors influencing natural selection in sheep populations are presented. We argue that prolonged exposure to these factors plays a major role in influencing the development of adaptation traits in indigenous sheep breeds, consequently leading to the alteration of genetic diversity at specific loci. The factors discussed include hot temperatures (heat stress), insufficient water, low quantity and quality of forage, and prevalence of parasites, pests, and diseases. In addition, genetic diversity, some signatures of selection for adaptation and economic angles of selection are also briefly discussed. A better understanding of environmental factors influencing the genetic diversity of sheep populations will inform breeding and management programs and may offer an opportunity for greater production efficiency with low input costs.}, }
@article {pmid36470391, year = {2023}, author = {Zhao, Q and Huang, H and Costello, MJ and Chu, J}, title = {Climate change projections show shrinking deep-water ecosystems with implications for biodiversity and aquaculture in the Northwest Pacific.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {861}, number = {}, pages = {160505}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160505}, pmid = {36470391}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Water ; Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Oceans and Seas ; Aquaculture ; Salmon ; }, abstract = {The increased availability of environmental data with depth deriving from remote-sensing-based datasets permits more comprehensive modelling of the distribution of marine ecosystems in space and time. This research tests the potential of such objective modelling of marine ecosystems in four dimensions, spatial and temporal, to provide projections of how climate change may affect biodiversity, including aquaculture. This approach could be replicated for any regional seas. The Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea (BYECS) are marginal seas in the Northwest Pacific bounded by China, Korea, and Japan. Despite providing important ecological and economic services, their ecological conditions and ecosystems distribution have not yet been systematically mapped. This analysis used 13 marine environmental variables, measured on a three-dimensional and monthly basis during 1993-2019, to classify and map the BYECS region by k-means clustering using cosine similarity as distance function. There were 13 distinct areas identified that fit the definition of "ecosystems" that is, enduring regions demarcated by environmental characteristics. Of these 13 ecosystems, the Yellow Sea Cold Water (YSCW) Ecosystem is significant in relation to seasonal species composition and the newly developing deep-sea salmon caging aquaculture in the region. Projections of the potential size of this water mass under various climate-change scenarios based on analysis using the Non-Parametric Probabilistic Ecological Niche (NPPEN) model show that its volume may decrease 31 %-66 % in the future. Such a decrease would have impacts on the seasonal species' abundances in the BYECS marginal sea region and threaten the deep-sea cold-water salmon farming.}, }
@article {pmid36470390, year = {2023}, author = {Ramezani, MR and Helfer, F and Yu, B}, title = {Individual and combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on catchment runoff in Southeast Queensland, Australia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {861}, number = {}, pages = {160528}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160528}, pmid = {36470390}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Urbanization ; Queensland ; *Water Movements ; Climate Change ; Australia ; }, abstract = {Assessing the impacts of climate change and land-use change is of critical importance, particularly for urbanized catchments. In this study, a novel framework was used to examine and quantify these impacts on the runoff in six catchments in Southeast Queensland, Australia. For each catchment, temporal variations in impervious areas were derived from six satellite images using a sub-pixel classification technique and incorporated into the SIMHYD hydrological model. This model was satisfactorily calibrated and validated with daily runoff observations (0.63 ≤ Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ≤ 0.94, percent bias ≤ ±18 %) and was used to produce baseline runoff for 1986-2005 in these six catchments. The projected population increase was used to predict future imperviousness based on the linear relationship between the two. The projected rainfall and evapotranspiration were derived from the ensemble means of the eight general circulation models. Catchment runoff was projected under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5), three urbanization scenarios (low, medium, and high), and six combined scenarios for two future periods (2026-2045 and 2046-2065). Comparing with the baseline, it was found that (1) climate change alone would lead to a -3.8 % to -17.6 % reduction in runoff among the six catchments, for all scenarios and both future periods; (2) a 11.8 % to 78 % increase in runoff was projected under the three urbanization scenarios, and (3) a decrease in runoff due to climate change would moderate the increase in runoff caused by urbanization. For example, the combined effect would be a 54 % increase in runoff, with a -17.2 % decrease due to climate change and 78 % increase due to urbanization. Overall, runoff in the six catchments may be significantly affected by urban expansion. From this study, decision makers could gain a better understanding of the relative importance of the effects of climate and land-use change, which can be applied when developing future long-term water management plans at the catchment scale.}, }
@article {pmid36469139, year = {2022}, author = {Barik, SK and Behera, MD and Shrotriya, S and Likhovskoi, V}, title = {Monitoring climate change impacts on agriculture and forests: trends and prospects.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {1}, pages = {174}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-022-10754-w}, pmid = {36469139}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Agriculture ; }, }
@article {pmid36468357, year = {2022}, author = {Isaacs, D and Kiang, K and Skinner, JR}, title = {Time to act on climate change.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.15793}, pmid = {36468357}, issn = {1440-1754}, }
@article {pmid36468222, year = {2023}, author = {Wenda, C and Gaitán-Espitia, JD and Solano-Iguaran, JJ and Nakamura, A and Majcher, BM and Ashton, LA}, title = {Heat tolerance variation reveals vulnerability of tropical herbivore-parasitoid interactions to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {278-290}, doi = {10.1111/ele.14150}, pmid = {36468222}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {201810159002//the University of Hong Kong Seed Funding/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Herbivory ; *Thermotolerance ; Climate Change ; Insecta ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Assessing the heat tolerance (CTmax) of organisms is central to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity. While both environment and evolutionary history affect CTmax, it remains unclear how these factors and their interplay influence ecological interactions, communities and ecosystems under climate change. We collected and reared caterpillars and parasitoids from canopy and ground layers in different seasons in a tropical rainforest. We tested the CTmax and Thermal Safety Margins (TSM) of these food webs with implications for how species interactions could shift under climate change. We identified strong influence of phylogeny in herbivore-parasitoid community heat tolerance. The TSM of all insects were narrower in the canopy and parasitoids had lower heat tolerance compared to their hosts. Our CTmax-based simulation showed higher herbivore-parasitoid food web instability under climate change than previously assumed, highlighting the vulnerability of parasitoids and related herbivore control in tropical rainforests, particularly in the forest canopy.}, }
@article {pmid36467460, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Adawy, ME and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {EClinicalMedicine}, volume = {53}, number = {}, pages = {101721}, pmid = {36467460}, issn = {2589-5370}, }
@article {pmid36466010, year = {2022}, author = {P Lama, A and Tatu, U}, title = {Climate change and infections: lessons learnt from recent floods in Pakistan.}, journal = {New microbes and new infections}, volume = {49-50}, number = {}, pages = {101052}, pmid = {36466010}, issn = {2052-2975}, }
@article {pmid36465718, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, Y and Wang, H and Wang, P and Zhang, X and Zhang, Z and Zhong, Q and Ma, F and Yue, Q and Chen, WQ and Du, T and Liang, S}, title = {Cascading impacts of global metal mining on climate change and human health caused by COVID-19 pandemic.}, journal = {Resources, conservation, and recycling}, volume = {190}, number = {}, pages = {106800}, pmid = {36465718}, issn = {0921-3449}, abstract = {The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly disrupted global metal mining and associated supply chains. Here we analyse the cascading effects of the metal mining disruption associated with the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy, climate change, and human health. We find that the pandemic reduced global metal mining by 10-20% in 2020. This reduction subsequently led to losses in global economic output of approximately 117 billion US dollars, reduced CO2 emissions by approximately 33 million tonnes (exceeding Hungary's emissions in 2015), and reduced human health damage by 78,192 disability-adjusted life years. In particular, copper and iron mining made the most significant contribution to these effects. China and rest-of-the-world America were the most affected. The cascading effects of the metal mining disruption associated with the pandemic on the economy, climate change, and human health should be simultaneously considered in designing green economic stimulus policies.}, }
@article {pmid36464619, year = {2023}, author = {Inglis, SC and Ferguson, C and Eddington, R and McDonagh, J and Aldridge, CJ and Bardsley, K and Candelaria, D and Chen, YY and Clark, RA and Halcomb, E and Hendriks, JM and Hickman, LD and Wynne, R}, title = {Cardiovascular Nursing and Climate Change: A Call to Action From the CSANZ Cardiovascular Nursing Council.}, journal = {Heart, lung &amp; circulation}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {16-25}, doi = {10.1016/j.hlc.2022.10.007}, pmid = {36464619}, issn = {1444-2892}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Cardiovascular Nursing ; Adaptation, Physiological ; }, abstract = {This Call to Action aims to provide key considerations for cardiovascular nursing, related to climate and environmental impacts. Strategies to optimise nursing preparation, immediate response and adaptation to climate emergencies are crucial to ensure those at greatest risk, including First Nations peoples, are protected from potentially avoidable harm. Professionals who manage climate consequences must also understand the impact of their care on the root cause of the problem.}, }
@article {pmid36462488, year = {2023}, author = {Guo, H and Jiang, J and Li, Y and Long, X and Han, J}, title = {An aging giant at the center of global warming: Population dynamics and its effect on CO2 emissions in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {327}, number = {}, pages = {116906}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116906}, pmid = {36462488}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Global Warming ; China ; Economic Development ; Carbon/analysis ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Revealing the complex correlation between population aging and CO2, and projecting their future dynamics are fundamentally necessary to inform effective policies toward a low-carbon and sustainable development in China. Differing from the existing studies, this study highlighted a quantitative investigation on the impact of aging on CO2 emissions across the different stages of regional development in China through a STIRPAT model based on balanced provincial panel data from 1995 to 2019, and projected the demographic change and CO2 emissions till 2050 by employing cohort model and scenario analysis. It is found that CO2 emissions in China has witnessed a significant growth during 1995-2019, and will exhibit an inverted U-shaped growth till 2050 with its peak appears between 2030 and 2040. Statistically, every 1% growth of aging population will cause a 0.62% increase in CO2 emissions in China. However, a big regional difference was also detected as aging contributed to CO2 reduction in the eastern region, but stimulated CO2 emissions in the central and western regions. Policy implications for achieving a low-carbon and aging-oriented sustainable development may include the integration of aging into the decision-making in industrial structure upgrading and CO2 emission reduction at both national and region levels, the promotion of further transition to low-carbon consumption and green products in the eastern region, and strengthening the deep fusion of aging-oriented industries with local resource and environmental endowment in the central and western regions such as the development of eco-agriculture and green pension industries.}, }
@article {pmid36462162, year = {2022}, author = {McGain, F}, title = {Climate change and child health.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {58}, number = {12}, pages = {2327-2328}, pmid = {36462162}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36461915, year = {2023}, author = {Temte, JL and Barrett, B and Erickson, R and Bell, C}, title = {Developing a research agenda on climate change and health in primary care.}, journal = {Family practice}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {519-521}, doi = {10.1093/fampra/cmac130}, pmid = {36461915}, issn = {1460-2229}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Primary Health Care ; }, }
@article {pmid36461570, year = {2023}, author = {Qiu, J and Shen, Z and Xie, H}, title = {Drought impacts on hydrology and water quality under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {858}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {159854}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159854}, pmid = {36461570}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Hydrology ; *Droughts ; Climate Change ; Water Quality ; Ecosystem ; Soil ; }, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that droughts are projected to affect global hydrology and water quality in varying ways, resulting in a considerable challenge to water availability for society, environment, and ecosystems. This study employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to evaluate how drought affects hydrology and water quality in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, coupled with bias-corrected climate projections in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, accommodating the intercoupling effects of precipitation shifts and rising temperatures. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI), and standardized soil moisture index (SSWI) were used to characterize meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts that occur in the different phases in the hydrological cycle. Climate change had the most significant impact on agricultural drought. SSWI were projected to considerably increase in intensity, frequency, and duration in most subbasins by up to 15 %, 55 %, and 45 %, respectively, and showed a strong correlation with meteorological and hydrological droughts (correlation coefficients r = 0.54, 0.57, and 0.60 with SPI for the baseline, near future and far future periods, and 0.91, 0.87, and 0.89 with SRI for the three periods, respectively). Hydrological components, sediment export, and nutrient loss were highly correlated with changes in drought indexes, with r ranging between -0.68 and 0.34 in the near future period and -0.62 and 0.53 in the far future period. Drought conditions of surface runoff and soil water dominated the changes in sediment export, and hydrological drought was the major cause for reduced nutrient loads. In addition to drought impacts, the synergistic effects of increasing precipitation and rising temperature led to a certain degree of increase in sediment and nutrient exports. The results of this study emphasize the need to enhance the resilience of watershed systems to the predicted increases in the intensity, frequency, and duration of droughts.}, }
@article {pmid36461297, year = {2022}, author = {Koutsoumanis, KP and Misiou, OD and Kakagianni, MN}, title = {Climate change threatens the microbiological stability of non-refrigerated foods.}, journal = {Food research international (Ottawa, Ont.)}, volume = {162}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {111990}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodres.2022.111990}, pmid = {36461297}, issn = {1873-7145}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Temperature ; Food Chain ; Fast Foods ; }, abstract = {Most studies on the impact of climate change on foods focus on the consequences to security and safety. In the present study we provide scientific evidence on an overlooked aspect of climate change related to the microbiological stability of foods. Most microbiologically stable processed foods are contaminated with spores of thermophilic spoilage bacteria which are highly heat-resistant and can survive thermal processing. Current temperatures during distribution and storage in temperate climates do not allow growth of thermophilic bacteria to levels that can cause spoilage, ensuring their microbiological stability. Our findings suggest that the latter limiting condition can be eliminated by global warming. By assessing different global warming scenarios for 38 European cities in a case study with canned milk, we show that failing to limit the increase of global mean surface temperature below 2 °C can lead to a very high risk of spoilage and subsequently cause a collapse of the shelf-stable food chain.}, }
@article {pmid36460912, year = {2022}, author = {Thompson, B}, title = {Gaia Vince on how climate change will shape where people live.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-04132-2}, pmid = {36460912}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid36460891, year = {2023}, author = {Ding, J and Wang, Y and Wang, S and Mohsin, M}, title = {Correction to: Role of climate fund raising under fiscal balance on climate change mitigation: an analysis from Pareto optimality.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {19061}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-022-24284-y}, pmid = {36460891}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid36460108, year = {2023}, author = {Ma, M and Wang, Q and Liu, R and Zhao, Y and Zhang, D}, title = {Effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage change in northern China considering extreme climate and time-lag and -accumulation effects.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {860}, number = {}, pages = {160527}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160527}, pmid = {36460108}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; China ; Temperature ; Human Activities ; }, abstract = {Quantifying the contributions of climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) to vegetation change is crucial for making a sustainable vegetation restoration scheme. However, the effects of extreme climate and time-lag and -accumulation effects on vegetation are often ignored, thus underestimating the impact of CC on vegetation change. In this study, the spatiotemporal variation of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) from 2000 to 2019 in northern China (NC) as well as the time-lag and -accumulation effects of 15 monthly climatic indices, including extreme indices, on the FVC, were analyzed. Subsequently, a modified residual analysis considering the influence of extreme climate and time-lag and -accumulation effects was proposed and used to attribute the change in the FVC contributed by CC and HA. Given the multicollinearity of climatic variables, partial least squares regression was used to construct the multiple linear regression between climatic indices and the FVC. The results show that: (1) the annual FVC significantly increased at a rate of 0.0268/10a from 2000 to 2019 in all vegetated areas of NC. Spatially, the annual FVC increased in most vegetated areas (∼81.6 %) of NC, and the increase was significant in ∼54.6 % of the areas; (2) except for the temperature duration (DTR), climatic indices had no significant time-lag effects but significant time-accumulation effects on the FVC change. The DTR had both significant time-lag and -accumulation effects on the FVC change. Except for potential evapotranspiration and DTR, the main temporal effects of climatic indices on the FVC were a 0-month lag and 1-2-month accumulation; and (3) the contributions of CC and HA to FVC change were 0.0081/10a and 0.0187/10a in NC, respectively, accounting for 30.2 % and 69.8 %, respectively. HA dominated the increase in the FVC in most provinces of NC, except for the Qinghai and Neimenggu provinces.}, }
@article {pmid36459482, year = {2023}, author = {Fu, YH and Geng, X and Chen, S and Wu, H and Hao, F and Zhang, X and Wu, Z and Zhang, J and Tang, J and Vitasse, Y and Zohner, CM and Janssens, I and Stenseth, NC and Peñuelas, J}, title = {Global warming is increasing the discrepancy between green (actual) and thermal (potential) seasons of temperate trees.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {5}, pages = {1377-1389}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16545}, pmid = {36459482}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {B18006//111 Project/ ; CH2020-8656//China-Sweden Mobility Program/ ; SGR 2017-1005//he Catalan Government/ ; PID2019-110521GB-I00//JP acknowledges the financial support from the Spanish Government/ ; 42025101//National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars/ ; U21A2039//NSFC/ ; }, mesh = {Seasons ; *Trees ; *Global Warming ; Climate ; Temperature ; Plant Leaves ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Over the past decades, global warming has led to a lengthening of the time window during which temperatures remain favorable for carbon assimilation and tree growth, resulting in a lengthening of the green season. The extent to which forest green seasons have tracked the lengthening of this favorable period under climate warming, however, has not been quantified to date. Here, we used remote sensing data and long-term ground observations of leaf-out and coloration for six dominant species of European trees at 1773 sites, for a total of 6060 species-site combinations, during 1980-2016 and found that actual green season extensions (GS: 3.1 ± 0.1 day decade[-1]) lag four times behind extensions of the potential thermal season (TS: 12.6 ± 0.1 day decade[-1]). Similar but less pronounced differences were obtained using satellite-derived vegetation phenology observations, that is, a lengthening of 4.4 ± 0.13 and 7.5 ± 0.13 day decade[-1] for GS and TS, respectively. This difference was mainly driven by the larger advance in the onset of the thermal season compared to the actual advance of leaf-out dates (spring mismatch: 7.2 ± 0.1 day decade[-1]), but to a less extent caused by a phenological mismatch between GS and TS in autumn (2.4 ± 0.1 day decade[-1]). Our results showed that forest trees do not linearly track the new thermal window extension, indicating more complex interactions between winter and spring temperatures and photoperiod and a justification of demonstrating that using more sophisticated models that include the influence of chilling and photoperiod is needed to accurately predict spring phenological changes under warmer climate. They urge caution if such mechanisms are omitted to predict, for example, how vegetative health and growth, species distribution and crop yields will change in the future.}, }
@article {pmid36459269, year = {2022}, author = {Bibi, TS and Tekesa, NW}, title = {Impacts of climate change on IDF curves for urban stormwater management systems design: the case of Dodola Town, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {1}, pages = {170}, pmid = {36459269}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ethiopia ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Floods ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts are one of the global challenges that change the intensity and frequency of rainfall. The Dodola town has previously experienced rainfall-induced flooding effects, and future floods may be more frequent and severe due to possible variations in rainfall intensity due to climate change. In this study, the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are updated for the design of urban stormwater drainage infrastructures under climate change to reduce flooding risks. To assess the variations in the rainfall intensity, the future IDF curves for the periods (2020-2100) and two GCMs (CanESM2 and HadGEM2-ES) were derived and compared to the current IDF curves. It was found that rainfall intensities for future climate conditions will differ from the current period for all durations and return periods. The comparison results show that the relative change between future rainfall intensities and historic rainfall ranges from 1.5 to 30.6%, 2.48 to 42.6%, and 3.7 to 23.24% for 2020-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, respectively. The IDF relationships revealed that as a result of climate change, urban flooding will increase in the future. This study will help to better understand the impacts of climate change on rainfall IDF relationships, as well as have implications for the design of current and future stormwater management systems in Dodola, Ethiopia.}, }
@article {pmid36458129, year = {2022}, author = {Ishaque, W and Tanvir, R and Mukhtar, M}, title = {Climate Change and Water Crises in Pakistan: Implications on Water Quality and Health Risks.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2022}, number = {}, pages = {5484561}, pmid = {36458129}, issn = {1687-9813}, mesh = {*Water Quality ; *Climate Change ; Pakistan ; Floods ; Droughts ; }, abstract = {Pakistan is vulnerable and most affected by adverse impacts of climate change. The study examines the impact of climate change on Pakistan during the year 2022, resulting into unprecedented heatwave and drought in summers followed by the abnormal rains and floods during monsoon season. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, which has been devastated by both drought and floods. While the flood water is gradually receding, the stagnant contaminated water is causing several health risks for the inhabitants. This research argues that water security is the emerging national security challenge for Pakistan. The article investigates the status of water availability vis-a-vis the burgeoning population, agriculture, and other uses of water. Impact of abnormal melting of glaciers, nonavailability of dams for storage of rainwater, and lack of smart means for agriculture water have been examined to empirically validate the arguments.}, }
@article {pmid36455473, year = {2023}, author = {Huang, J}, title = {Multilayer coupled mechanism: Comment on "Impacts of climate change on vegetation pattern: Mathematical modeling and data analysis" by G.Q. Sun et al.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {44}, number = {}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2022.11.007}, pmid = {36455473}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Ecosystem ; Data Analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid36454331, year = {2022}, author = {Nezlek, JB and Cypryańska, M}, title = {An (Un)Holy Trinity: Differences in Climate Change-Induced Distress Between Believers and Non-believers in God Disappear After Controlling for Left-Right Political Orientation.}, journal = {Journal of religion and health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-27}, pmid = {36454331}, issn = {1573-6571}, support = {2018/31/B/HS6/02822//Narodowe Centrum Nauki/ ; 8119//SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities/ ; }, abstract = {We examined differences in reactions to climate change as a function of belief in God. We studied four samples, convenience samples of university students in the USA (n = 627) and in Poland (n = 628), a nationally representative sample of adults in Poland (n = 1154), and a nationally representative sample of adults in the USA (n = 1098). In each study we measured the distress people felt about climate change, belief in God, and left-right political orientation. These constructs were measured slightly differently across the studies. Regardless of how these constructs were measured, believers were less distressed by climate change than non-believers, and with only a few exceptions, these differences disappeared after covarying political orientation (left-right or liberal-conservative). Contrary to those who argue that there is something inherent in religious belief that predisposes people to deny or ignore climate change, the present results suggest that it is the (growing) confluence of faith and conservative political orientation that is responsible for the fact that some people of faith tend to deny climate change or actively oppose efforts to combat it.}, }
@article {pmid36453812, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Mohammad, SY and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Curationis}, volume = {45}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-e3}, pmid = {36453812}, issn = {2223-6279}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, abstract = {No abstract available.}, }
@article {pmid36453803, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Mohammad, SY and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {African journal of primary health care &amp; family medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-e3}, pmid = {36453803}, issn = {2071-2936}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, abstract = {No abstract available.}, }
@article {pmid36453016, year = {2023}, author = {Lajeunesse, A and Fourcade, Y}, title = {Temporal analysis of GBIF data reveals the restructuring of communities following climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {92}, number = {2}, pages = {391-402}, pmid = {36453016}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Butterflies/physiology ; Biodiversity ; Temperature ; Europe ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Multiple studies revealed an effect of climate change on biodiversity by investigating long-term changes in species distributions and community composition. However, many taxa do not benefit from systematic long-term monitoring programmes, leaving gaps in our current knowledge of climate-induced community turnover. We used data extracted from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to characterize community reorganization under climate change for nine animal taxonomic groups (ants, bats, bees, birds, butterflies, earthworms, frogs, rodents and salamanders), which, for most of them, had never been studied before in this regard. Using a presence-only community temperature index (CTI), reflecting the relative proportion of warm- and cold-adapted species, we tested whether and how species' assemblages were affected by climate change over the last 30 years. Across Europe and North America, we observed an average increase in CTI, consistent with a gradual species turnover driven by climate change. At the local scale, we could observe that the composition of most species assemblages changed according to temperature variations. However, this change in composition always occurred with a lag compared to climate change, suggesting that communities are experiencing a climatic debt. Results suggest that anthropization may play a role in the decoupling between the change in CTI and the change in local temperature. The results of our study highlight an overall thermophilization of assemblages as a response of temperature warming. We demonstrated that this response may exist for a large range of understudied terrestrial animals, and we introduced a framework that can be used in a broader context, opening new opportunities for global change research.}, }
@article {pmid36452097, year = {2022}, author = {Ouyang, X and Lin, H and Bai, S and Chen, J and Chen, A}, title = {Simulation the potential distribution of Dendrolimus houi and its hosts, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, under climate change in China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1054710}, pmid = {36452097}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Due to climate change, it is significant to explore the impact of rising temperatures on the distribution of Dendrolimus houi Lajonquiere (Lepidoptera) and its host plants, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, and to simulate their suitable future distribution areas in order to provide a theoretical basis for the monitoring of, and early warning about, D. houi and the formulation of effective prevention and control policies. Based on the known distribution areas of, and relevant climate data for, D. houi, P. yunnanensis, and C. fortunei, their suitable habitat in China was predicted using the ENMeval data package in order to adjust the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model parameters. The results showed that the regularization multiplier was 0.5 when the feature combination was LQHPT, with a MaxEnt model of lowest complexity and excellent prediction accuracy. The main climate variable affecting the geographical distribution of D. houi, P. yunnanensis, and C. fortunei is temperature, specifically including isothermality, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of warmest month, minimum temperature of warmest month, average temperature of coldest quarter. The potential suitable distribution areas for P. yunnanensis and D. houi were similar under climate change, mainly distributed in southwest China, while C. fortunei was mainly distributed in southeast China. Under different future-climate scenarios, the areas suitable for the three species will increase, except for P. yunnanensis in the 2070s under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. With climate change, all three species were found to have a tendency to migrate to higher latitudes and higher altitudes. The centroids of the areas suitable for P. yunnanensis and D. houi will migrate to the northwest and the centroids of the areas suitable for C. fortunei will migrate to the northeast.}, }
@article {pmid36451152, year = {2022}, author = {Weierstall-Pust, R and Schnell, T and Heßmann, P and Feld, M and Höfer, M and Plate, A and Müller, MJ}, title = {Stressors related to the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, and the Ukraine crisis, and their impact on stress symptoms in Germany: analysis of cross-sectional survey data.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {2233}, pmid = {36451152}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; Male ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Ukraine/epidemiology ; Germany/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the Ukraine crisis are considered unprecedented global stressors, potentially associated with serious health consequences. However, simultaneous effects of these stressors are not yet understood, making it difficult to evaluate their relative contribution to the population burden and potential future manifestations in clinically significant psychiatric disorders. This study aimed at disentangling the relative contribution of the three stressor groups on current sub-clinical stress symptoms.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional, representative survey study was conducted two months after the outbreak of the Ukraine war in Germany. Proportional quota sampling was applied for age, gender, income, and regional characteristics. Data were recruited by means of an online survey. 3094 data sets (1560 females) were included. Age ranged from 18-89 (M: 50.4&#xa0;years; SD: 17.2). The Subclinical Stress Questionnaire (SSQ-25) served as main outcome measure. In collaboration with a professional media agency, 20 items were generated to capture salient population stressors. A three-factor exploratory structural equation model confirmed the appropriateness of this scale.<br><br>RESULTS: (1) Differences in subjective rankings revealed that stressors related to the Ukraine crisis were rated as most worrying, followed by climate change, and the Covid-19 pandemic (Generalized-Linear-Model: Epsilon&#x2009;=&#x2009;.97; F(1.94, 6001.14)&#x2009;=&#x2009;1026.12, p&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001; &#x3b7;p[2]&#x2009;=&#x2009;.25). (2) In a linear regression model (R[2]&#x2009;=&#x2009;.39), Covid-19 pandemic stressors were the only meaningful predictors for current ill-health (standardized &#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;.48). Ukraine crisis did not predict stress symptom profiles in the present sample. (3) Older and male individuals report less and/or less severe stress symptoms, although effect sizes were small (range: &#x3b7;[2] .11-.21). An older age also reduced the impact of Covid-19 stressors.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Researchers from the health sciences must consider overlapping effects from population stressors. Although the Ukraine crisis and climate change mark salient stressors, including economic threats, the Covid-19 pandemic still has a profound effect on ill-health and must be considered as a relevant factor in future manifestations of psychiatric and associated health consequences.}, }
@article {pmid36451009, year = {2023}, author = {Sehgal, AR}, title = {Climate Change and Health System Financial Investments.}, journal = {Journal of general internal medicine}, volume = {38}, number = {3}, pages = {804-805}, pmid = {36451009}, issn = {1525-1497}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Investments ; Government Programs ; }, }
@article {pmid36450837, year = {2022}, author = {Alifu, H and Hirabayashi, Y and Imada, Y and Shiogama, H}, title = {Enhancement of river flooding due to global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {20687}, pmid = {36450837}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Humans ; *Floods ; Global Warming ; Rivers ; Climate Change ; *Implosive Therapy ; }, abstract = {Human-induced climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation[1]. Due to the complexity of runoff generation and the streamflow process, the historical impact of human-induced climate change on river flooding remains uncertain. Here, we address the question of whether anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability of the extreme river flood events for the period 1951-2010 based on simulated river discharge derived from large ensemble climate experiments with and without human-induced climate change. The results indicate that human-induced climate change altered the probabilities of 20 of the 52 analyzed flood events. Fourteen of these 20 flood events, which occurred mainly in Asia and South America, were very likely to have been enhanced by human-induced climate change due to an increase in heavy precipitation. Conversely, two flood events in North/South America and two flood events in Asia and two flood events in Europe were suppressed by human-induced climate change, perhaps as a result of lower snowfall. Human-induced climate change has enhanced flooding more prominently in recent years, providing important insights into potential adaptation strategies for river flooding.}, }
@article {pmid36450358, year = {2022}, author = {Carneiro, MM}, title = {Climate change, human fertility, and the health of future generations: a call for action.}, journal = {Women &amp; health}, volume = {62}, number = {9-10}, pages = {751-752}, doi = {10.1080/03630242.2022.2149049}, pmid = {36450358}, issn = {1541-0331}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Social Responsibility ; Fertility ; }, }
@article {pmid36450037, year = {2022}, author = {Redulla, R}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE, SUSTAINABILITY, AND HEALTH: WHAT CAN NURSES DO?.}, journal = {Gastroenterology nursing : the official journal of the Society of Gastroenterology Nurses and Associates}, volume = {45}, number = {6}, pages = {393-394}, doi = {10.1097/SGA.0000000000000710}, pmid = {36450037}, issn = {1538-9766}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36447991, year = {2023}, author = {Ekinci, S and Van Lange, PAM}, title = {Lost in between crises: How do COVID-19 threats influence the motivation to act against climate change and the refugee crisis?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental psychology}, volume = {85}, number = {}, pages = {101918}, pmid = {36447991}, issn = {0272-4944}, abstract = {While the COVID-19 pandemic has been found to undermine mental health, it is unclear how it may impact individuals' motivation to tackle other global crises. There are at least two perspectives on how COVID-19 might psychologically impact how people respond to other global crises. The finite-pool-of-worry hypothesis suggests that worrying about one issue might diminish worry about other issues since individuals have a limited capacity of worry. Conversely, the affect-generalization hypothesis advocates that worry about an issue might generalize to other issues and increase general levels of worry. To test these competing hypotheses, the present research investigated how threats activated by the COVID-19 pandemic might affect individuals' interest in and motivation to address climate change (Study 1) and the refugee crisis (Study 2) by assessing pro-environmental behavior and prosocial behavior toward refugees, respectively. The results showed that exposure to COVID-19 threats elevated anxiety levels, and trait anxiety, psychological distance, and future orientation moderated this effect. While COVID-19 threats did not influence pro-environmental and prosocial behavior and intentions, exploratory analyses uncovered that being psychologically closer to COVID-19 might predict an increase in pro-environmental and prosocial behavior and intentions, pointing to the affect-generalization hypothesis.}, }
@article {pmid36447114, year = {2023}, author = {Bedoya-Roqueme, E and Tizo-Pedroso, E}, title = {How Can Climate Change Limit the Distribution of Cooperative Pseudoscorpions in Brazil?.}, journal = {Neotropical entomology}, volume = {52}, number = {1}, pages = {24-35}, pmid = {36447114}, issn = {1678-8052}, support = {408977/2016-7//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 201610267001020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de Goi&#xe1;s/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Brazil ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Arachnida ; North America ; }, abstract = {Pseudoscorpions are arachnids that inhabit all terrestrial ecosystems, and are distributed in the tropical, subtropical, and even circumpolar regions. Paratemnoides nidificator (Balzan, 1888) was originally distributed in the continental zone of South America, but subsequently dispersed to Central and North America and the Caribbean. This species was also recorded in coastal marine environments and forest areas in continental and insular regions. Paratemnoides nidificator is the only cooperatively social pseudoscorpion species recorded in South American. However, its distribution limitations are poorly understood. In this study, we used ecological niche models to investigate this species' current and future distribution potential. Similarly, we defined range limits and demonstrated the potential species distribution towards the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes in the Brazilian territory in future scenarios of climate change, and land use and land cover changes. The annual mean temperature was the most important variable, suggesting that a physiological limitation prevents P. nidificator from occupying areas with extreme mean temperatures. Furthermore, the loss of vegetation cover and the expansion of agricultural frontiers may reduce the occurrence of P. nidificator in environmentally unstable areas because P. nidificator is sensitive to anthropogenic activities. Therefore, the biological response is the relationship between the tolerance limit of P. nidificator and the predicted amplitude of the factor, which appears to lie in its maximum tolerance range.}, }
@article {pmid36445986, year = {2022}, author = {David, T and Buchan, J and Nalau, J}, title = {Coping and Adapting to Climate Change in Australia: Yoga Perspectives.}, journal = {International journal of yoga therapy}, volume = {32}, number = {2022}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17761/2022-D-22-00016}, pmid = {36445986}, issn = {1531-2054}, mesh = {Humans ; *Yoga ; Climate Change ; Adaptation, Psychological ; Mental Health ; Australia ; }, abstract = {Scientists caution against ignoring human-induced climate change and related health repercussions, with a growing body of literature highlighting the mental health effects of climate change and the importance of understanding coping and adaptation strategies. Less is known, however, about sustainable personal practices fortifying mental health in the context of climate change. The present study sought to investigate how long-term yoga practitioners (yoga therapists or yoga teachers) in Australia with a lived experience of climate change-related events are coping and adapting. The aim was to better understand participants' reports of climate change-related experiences and how yoga influences their mental health and choices in the face of climate change. Eleven in-depth telephone interviews were conducted and analyzed using an interpretive phenomenological methodology. Participants reported that their ongoing relationship with yoga influences how they cope with climate change-related stressors and their being-in-the-world, and how concern for all life bolsters their responses to climate change. The results illustrate the part yoga may play in supporting long-term practitioners to prepare for, cope with, and respond to climate change events and impacts. Offering inclusive, interdisciplinary yoga therapy and community-based networks fostering ethical living and response flexibility may prove beneficial not only for the mental health and coping ability of participants, but for the planet.}, }
@article {pmid36445959, year = {2022}, author = {Ruhl, JB and Craig, RK}, title = {Designing extreme climate change scenarios for anticipatory governance.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {49}, pages = {e2216155119}, pmid = {36445959}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36443389, year = {2022}, author = {Brychkova, G and Kekae, K and McKeown, PC and Hanson, J and Jones, CS and Thornton, P and Spillane, C}, title = {Climate change and land-use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {20512}, pmid = {36443389}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Ethiopia ; Plant Breeding ; Black People ; Livestock ; *Cenchrus ; }, abstract = {Forage grasses are central feed resources for livestock globally. In Ethiopian dairy systems, they serve as feed sources during both wet and dry seasons, yet escalating climate change could threaten forage supply. Here, we investigate projected climate change impacts on three forage grasses currently recommended for Ethiopian dairy systems. We determine areas of geographical suitability for each species using three climate projections generated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) and calculate their ability to meet predicted dry matter demand under four scenarios for livestock intensification and land availability. By 2050, Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) is likely to be negatively affected by climate change in regions such as Tigray, while Rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) and Napier grass (Cenchrus purpureus) may have improved suitability under future climates. Our findings suggest that feed demands could theoretically be met by production of these forage grasses under current and future climates. However, if land availability is reduced and herd composition shifts towards higher-productivity exotic breeds, forage resources will not meet cattle demand even with improved agronomic management.}, }
@article {pmid36442972, year = {2022}, author = {Auckland, C and Blumenthal-Barby, J and Boyd, K and Earp, BD and Frith, L and Fritz, Z and McMillan, J and Shahvisi, A and Suleman, M}, title = {Medical ethics and the climate change emergency.}, journal = {Journal of medical ethics}, volume = {48}, number = {12}, pages = {939-940}, doi = {10.1136/jme-2022-108738}, pmid = {36442972}, issn = {1473-4257}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ethics, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid36441663, year = {2023}, author = {Vergunst, F and Berry, HL and Minor, K and Chadi, N}, title = {Climate Change and Substance-Use Behaviors: A Risk-Pathways Framework.}, journal = {Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {936-954}, pmid = {36441663}, issn = {1745-6924}, support = {//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; *Mental Disorders ; }, abstract = {Climate change is undermining the mental and physical health of global populations, but the question of how it is affecting substance-use behaviors has not been systematically examined. In this narrative synthesis, we find that climate change could increase harmful substance use worldwide through at least five pathways: psychosocial stress arising from the destabilization of social, environmental, economic, and geopolitical support systems; increased rates of mental disorders; increased physical-health burden; incremental harmful changes to established behavior patterns; and worry about the dangers of unchecked climate change. These pathways could operate independently, additively, interactively, and cumulatively to increase substance-use vulnerability. Young people face disproportionate risks because of their high vulnerability to mental-health problems and substance-use disorders and greater number of life years ahead in which to be exposed to current and worsening climate change. We suggest that systems thinking and developmental life-course approaches provide practical frameworks for conceptualizing this relationship. Further conceptual, methodological, and empirical work is urgently needed to evaluate the nature and scope of this burden so that effective adaptive and preventive action can be taken.}, }
@article {pmid36440725, year = {2022}, author = {Mathers, D}, title = {Climate change and racism: or, why Tarzan can't help us save the planet.}, journal = {The Journal of analytical psychology}, volume = {67}, number = {5}, pages = {1490-1496}, doi = {10.1111/1468-5922.12864}, pmid = {36440725}, issn = {1468-5922}, mesh = {Humans ; *Racism ; Planets ; Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36440719, year = {2022}, author = {Dodds, J}, title = {Dancing at the end of the world? Psychoanalysis, climate change and joy.}, journal = {The Journal of analytical psychology}, volume = {67}, number = {5}, pages = {1257-1269}, doi = {10.1111/1468-5922.12857}, pmid = {36440719}, issn = {1468-5922}, mesh = {Humans ; *Psychoanalysis ; Climate Change ; *Dancing ; *Psychoanalytic Therapy ; }, abstract = {This paper attempts to join the dots between psychoanalytic and post-psychoanalytic perspectives in relation to climate change and the ecological crisis and to begin a discussion on the role of joy in sustaining ourselves in the face of the global catastrophe. There is a vital expanding psychoanalytic literature addressing itself to the environmental crisis but a striking absence on joy and what stands in its way. This paper explores what psychoanalysis has to offer in the context of planetary emergency and also asks psychoanalysis to look beyond itself and reimagine what it can be. Joy involves a simultaneous affirmation of both our uniqueness and our togetherness, not only as humans but with all forms of life and the web of life itself. If we were to allow ourselves to actually enjoy our lives, we just might fight harder against our extinction.}, }
@article {pmid36440663, year = {2022}, author = {Jones, M and Guisard, Y and Hulme, A and Guppy, M and Campbell, N and Oguoma, V}, title = {Climate change and Australian rural health: Five key lessons from Africa.}, journal = {The Australian journal of rural health}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {839-841}, doi = {10.1111/ajr.12951}, pmid = {36440663}, issn = {1440-1584}, mesh = {Humans ; *Rural Health ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36439401, year = {2023}, author = {Astle, B and Buyco, M and Ero, I and Reimer-Kirkham, S}, title = {Global impact of climate change on persons with albinism: A human rights issue.}, journal = {The journal of climate change and health}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {100190}, pmid = {36439401}, issn = {2667-2782}, }
@article {pmid36439364, year = {2022}, author = {Formanski, FJ and Pein, MM and Loschelder, DD and Engler, JO and Husen, O and Majer, JM}, title = {Tipping points ahead? How laypeople respond to linear versus nonlinear climate change predictions.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {175}, number = {1-2}, pages = {8}, pmid = {36439364}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {We investigate whether communication strategies that portray climate change as a nonlinear phenomenon provoke increases in laypeople's climate change risk perceptions. In a high-powered, preregistered online experiment, participants were exposed to linear or nonlinear predictions of future temperature increases that would be expected if global greenhouse gas emissions were not reduced. We hypothesized that the type of climate change portrayal would impact perceptions of qualitative risk characteristics (catastrophic potential, controllability of consequences) which would, in turn, affect laypeople's holistic risk perceptions. The results of the study indicate that the type of climate change portrayal did not affect perceptions of risk or other social-cognitive variables such as efficacy beliefs. While participants who were exposed to a nonlinear portrayal of climate change perceived abrupt changes in the climate system as more likely, they did not perceive the consequences of climate change as less controllable or more catastrophic. Notably, however, participants who had been exposed to a linear or nonlinear portrayal of climate change were willing to donate more money to environmental organizations than participants who had not been presented with a climate-related message. Limitations of the present study and directions for future research are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid36439028, year = {2022}, author = {Puvvula, J and Abadi, AM and Conlon, KC and Rennie, JJ and Herring, SC and Thie, L and Rudolph, MJ and Owen, R and Bell, JE}, title = {Estimating the Burden of Heat-Related Illness Morbidity Attributable to Anthropogenic Climate Change in North Carolina.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {e2022GH000636}, pmid = {36439028}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Climate change is known to increase the frequency and intensity of hot days (daily maximum temperature ≥30°C), both globally and locally. Exposure to extreme heat is associated with numerous adverse human health outcomes. This study estimated the burden of heat-related illness (HRI) attributable to anthropogenic climate change in North Carolina physiographic divisions (Coastal and Piedmont) during the summer months from 2011 to 2016. Additionally, assuming intermediate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, future HRI morbidity burden attributable to climate change was estimated. The association between daily maximum temperature and the rate of HRI was evaluated using the Generalized Additive Model. The rate of HRI assuming natural simulations (i.e., absence of greenhouse gas emissions) and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were predicted to estimate the HRI attributable to climate change. Over 4 years (2011, 2012, 2014, and 2015), we observed a significant decrease in the rate of HRI assuming natural simulations compared to the observed. About 3 out of 20 HRI visits are attributable to anthropogenic climate change in Coastal (13.40% [IQR: -34.90,95.52]) and Piedmont (16.39% [IQR: -35.18,148.26]) regions. During the future periods, the median rate of HRI was significantly higher (78.65%: Coastal and 65.85%: Piedmont), assuming a higher emission scenario than the intermediate emission scenario. We observed significant associations between anthropogenic climate change and adverse human health outcomes. Our findings indicate the need for evidence-based public health interventions to protect human health from climate-related exposures, like extreme heat, while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid36438413, year = {2022}, author = {Bertolotti, M and Valla, LG and Catellani, P}, title = {"If it weren't for COVID-19…": Counterfactual arguments influence support for climate change policies via cross-domain moral licensing or moral consistency effects.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1005813}, pmid = {36438413}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {In two studies, we investigated whether counterfactual messages (i.e., "If… then…") on the economic costs of past public policies influence support for future climate change policies. In Study 1, we tested whether the effect of upward counterfactual messages depended on their referring (or not) to the COVID-19 pandemic. Results showed lower support for a future climate change policy when the past expenses evoked by the upward counterfactual messages were attributed to COVID-19. In Study 2, we combined upward counterfactuals with downward counterfactuals presenting past economic efforts to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic as a moral credit. Results showed that exposure to downward counterfactuals decreased support for climate change policies among participants with low endorsement of anti-COVID-19 measures, whereas it increased support among participants with high endorsement. Discussion focuses on the conditions under which counterfactual communication may activate cross-dimensional moral licensing or moral consistency effects, influencing support for climate change policies.}, }
@article {pmid36438088, year = {2022}, author = {Yang, M and Zhao, H and Xian, X and Liu, H and Li, J and Chen, L and Liu, W}, title = {Potential global geographical distribution of Lolium temulentum L. under climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1024635}, pmid = {36438088}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Invasive alien plants posed a significant threat to natural ecosystems, biodiversity, agricultural production, as well as human and livestock health. Lolium temulentum, an annual invasive alien weed with fibrous roots, can reduce wheat production and cause economic losses. Moreover, the consumption of grains or cereal products mixed with darnel can cause dizziness, vomiting, and even death. Therefore, darnel is regarded as one of ″the worst weeds around the world″. In the present study, we predicted the potential global geographical distribution of L. temulentum using an optimal MaxEnt model, based on occurrence records and related environmental variables. The mean AUC, TSS, and KAPPA were 0.95, 0.778, and 0.75, indicating the MaxEnt model accuracy was excellent. The significant environmental variables, including the mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio 11), precipitation of coldest quarter (bio 19), temperature annual range (bio 7), and annual precipitation (bio 12), produced a great impact on the potential global geographical distribution of L. temulentum. Under the current climate, L. temulentum was primarily distributed in south-eastern Asia, Europe, and south-eastern North America. The widest total suitable habitat was distributed in Asia, covering nearly 796 × 10[4] km[2]. By the 2050s, the potential geographical distribution of L. temulentum was expected to decrease in the Northern Hemisphere, and shrink gradually in southern America, Africa, and Oceania. Moreover, the distribution center of L. temulentum was expected to shift from Asia to Europe. Based on these predictions, changes in the suitable habitats for L. temulentum between Europe and Asia warrant close attention to prevent further spread.}, }
@article {pmid36438087, year = {2022}, author = {Megahed, EMA and Awaad, HA and Ramadan, IE and Abdul-Hamid, MIE and Sweelam, AA and El-Naggar, DR and Mansour, E}, title = {Assessing performance and stability of yellow rust resistance, heat tolerance, and agronomic performance in diverse bread wheat genotypes for enhancing resilience to climate change under Egyptian conditions.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1014824}, pmid = {36438087}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Yellow rust and heat stress adversatively impact the growth and production of bread wheat in particular under rising adverse environmental conditions. Stability of grain yield is a pivotal purpose of plant breeders to improve wheat production and ensure global food security especially under abrupt climate change. The objective of this study was to assess the performance and stability of diverse bread wheat genotypes for yellow rust resistance, heat stress, and yield traits. The studied genotypes were evaluated in two different locations under two sowing dates (timely and late sowing) during two growing seasons. The obtained results displayed significant differences among the tested locations, sowing dates, and genotypes for most measured traits. The yellow rust measurements evaluated under the field conditions including final rust severity (FRS), the average coefficient of infection (ACI), and area under disease progress curve (AUDPC) revealed that Giza-171, Misr-1, Gemmeiza-12, Shandweel-1, Sids-13, Line-1, Line-2, and Line-55 had better resistance. Based on heat sensitivity measurements, Line-1 and Line-2 followed by Line-35, Shandweel-1 and Line-55 were classified as more tolerant to heat stress compared with the remaining genotypes. The genotypes Line-55, Gemmeiza-12, Giza-171, Line-1, Line-2, and Misr-1 were able to maintain acceptable agronomic performance under timely and late sowing dates in all evaluated environments. Different statistical procedures were employed to explore the adaptability and stability of tested genotypes i.e., joint regression, stratified ranking, Wricke's Ecovalence values, cultivar superiority, additive main effects, and multiplicative interaction (AMMI), AMMI stability value, and genotype plus genotype-by-environment interaction (GGE). The applied stability parameters were quite similar for describing the stability of the evaluated wheat genotypes. The results indicated that Gemmeiza-12, Giza-171, Sids-12, Sids-13, Misr-1 Shandweel-1, Line-1, Line-2, and Line-55 were desirable and stable. The heatmap and hierarchical clustering were exploited for dividing the evaluated bread wheat genotypes into different clusters based on yellow rust resistance measurements, heat tolerance indices, and agronomic performance. Line-1 and Line-2 had the best performance for all rust resistance, heat tolerance, and agronomic performance followed by Giza-171, Line-55, Line-35, Gemmeiza-12, Shandweel-1, Misr-1, and Sids-13. In conclusion, our findings provide evidence of utilizing promising genotypes in rust resistance, heat tolerance, and agronomic performance in breeding programs for improving wheat grain yield stability mainly under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36437852, year = {2022}, author = {Harrison, A and Graham, H}, title = {Public priorities for local action to reduce the health impacts of climate change: Evidence from a UK survey.}, journal = {Public health in practice (Oxford, England)}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {100346}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhip.2022.100346}, pmid = {36437852}, issn = {2666-5352}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To investigate public concerns about the impacts of climate change on people's health in the UK and their priorities for action by local government. In the UK, local government are responsible for the environmental protection and health of their local population.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey.<br><br>METHODS: An online survey of UK adults aged &#x2265;18 years was conducted in 2021 (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;4050). Representative quotas were set for gender, age group, ethnic group, educational attainment and location (UK country/England region). Survey participants were asked about their concerns about the health impacts of climate change and, excluding those reporting no concerns, their top priorities for their local government to address.<br><br>RESULTS: The dominant health concerns related to air pollution and severe floods. These exposures were also identified as the two most important priorities for local government to address. Separate logistic regression models investigated local-level factors that predicted the selection of each priority, taking account of socio-demographic factors. For both outcomes, awareness of the relevant exposure in the local area in the past 12 months doubled the odds of selecting it as a priority (air pollution: OR 2.01, 95%CI 1.71, 2.36; floods: OR 2.16, 95%CI 1.88, 2.48).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrates the potential of surveys to capture public priorities for local action on the health impacts of climate change, and to yield clear policy advice on the issues of greatest public concern.}, }
@article {pmid36437690, year = {2023}, author = {Kantack, BR and Paschall, CE}, title = {Perceptions of policy problems and solutions: Climate change and structural racism.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {32}, number = {2}, pages = {247-256}, doi = {10.1177/09636625221133520}, pmid = {36437690}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {United States ; *Climate Change ; *Systemic Racism ; Attitude ; Public Policy ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Public policy debates in the United States about how to respond to complex issues like climate change and structural racism are often portrayed in polarized terms. Progressives are seen as advocating for transformational responses to major problems, while conservatives are portrayed as denying these problems' existence. However, such depictions obscure the presence of a third bloc that acknowledges these problems' existence but does not support drastic approaches to solving them. Using survey experiments, we examine the relationships between problem belief and solution support in these two issues areas. We find overlap between those who acknowledge the existence of these problems and those who oppose large-scale policy solutions. Furthermore, we observe that the solution proposed may influence attitudes toward the problem. Our results suggest that political scientists and policy activists overestimate the extent of denial of these problems and mistarget persuasive efforts by focusing on problem belief over solution support.}, }
@article {pmid36437266, year = {2022}, author = {Bergamo, TF and Ward, RD and Joyce, CB and Villoslada, M and Sepp, K}, title = {Experimental climate change impacts on Baltic coastal wetland plant communities.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {20362}, pmid = {36437266}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Wetlands ; Ecosystem ; Plants ; Water ; }, abstract = {Coastal wetlands provide a range of important ecosystem services, yet they are under threat from a range of stressors including climate change. This is predominantly as a result of alterations to the hydroregime and associated edaphic factors. We used a three-year mesocosm experiment to assess changes in coastal plant community composition for three plant communities in response to altered water level and salinity scenarios. Species richness and abundance were calculated by year and abundance was plotted using rank abundance curves. The permutational multivariate analysis of variance with Bray-Curtis dissimilarity was used to examine differences among treatments in plant community composition. A Non-metric Multi-dimensional Scaling analysis (NMDS) was used to visualize the responses of communities to treatments by year. Results showed that all three plant communities responded differently to altered water levels and salinity. Species richness and abundance increased significantly in an Open Pioneer plant community while Lower and Upper Shore plant communities showed less change. Species abundances changed in all plant communities with shifts in species composition significantly influenced by temporal effects and treatment. The observed responses to experimentally altered conditions highlight the need for conservation of these important ecosystems in the face of predicted climate change, since these habitats are important for wading birds and livestock grazing.}, }
@article {pmid36435591, year = {2022}, author = {Zhu, K and Bai, J}, title = {Review study on governance and international law for coastal and marine ecosystems in response to climate change: Social science perspective.}, journal = {Advances in marine biology}, volume = {93}, number = {}, pages = {117-145}, doi = {10.1016/bs.amb.2022.09.003}, pmid = {36435591}, issn = {2162-5875}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; International Law ; Social Sciences ; International Cooperation ; }, abstract = {As a common concern of humankind, the governance of coastal and marine ecosystems is increasingly coming to the fore of the international community as part of the joint response to climate change. Since the signing of the Declaration of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea several decades ago, the international community has been exploring how international law can be improved in this respect. At present, the governance and international law of coastal and marine ecosystems in response to climate change are studied from theoretical and methodological perspectives. Extensive empirical studies help pinpoint specific issues related to each topic and provide valuable empirical references for both developed and developing countries. Based on social science publications, the authors use technical means to visualize research related to this topic, and conduct comprehensive reviews of these papers. They reveal that research based on these topics started late and is characterized by fragmentation. The research potential related to mentioned topic has yet to be explored extensively.}, }
@article {pmid36434205, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {British dental journal}, volume = {233}, number = {10}, pages = {821-822}, pmid = {36434205}, issn = {1476-5373}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36433789, year = {2023}, author = {Osnato, M}, title = {BREEDIT: Fast breeding tools to match the fast pace of climate change.}, journal = {The Plant cell}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {4-5}, pmid = {36433789}, issn = {1532-298X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Time Factors ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid36431009, year = {2022}, author = {Vedernikov, KE and Bukharina, IL and Udalov, DN and Pashkova, AS and Larionov, MV and Mazina, SE and Galieva, AR}, title = {The State of Dark Coniferous Forests on the East European Plain Due to Climate Change.}, journal = {Life (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {36431009}, issn = {2075-1729}, support = {19-34-60003//Russian Foundation for Basic Research/ ; The grant was provided for state support for the creation and development of a World-class Scientific Center "Agrotechnologies for the Future"//Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation in accordance with agreement &#x2116; 075-15-2020-905 date November 16, 2020 on providing a grant in the form of subsidies from the Federal budget of Russian Federation/ ; }, abstract = {As a result of global climate changes, negative processes have been recorded in the coniferous forests of the Northern Hemisphere. Similar processes are observed in the Urals, including in Udmurtia. In the course of this research, archival analysis methods were used, as well as field research methods. In the process of analyzing archival materials in the Urals, a reduction of spruce forests was observed. If in the 20th century the share of spruce forests in the region was 50%, then in the 21th century it decreased to 35%. As a result of this research, it was revealed that the most unfavorable sanitary condition was recorded in the boreal-subboreal zone of Udmurtia, with a sanitary condition index of 3.2 (from 2.62 to 3.73). The main reason for the unfavorable sanitary condition of spruce forests was the vital activity of Ips typographus L. According to our research, in 11 sample plots out of 18, a high score for sanitary condition was associated with the vital activity of bark beetles. The correlation coefficient of the index of the sanitary condition of plantings and the number of individuals of Picea obovata Ledeb. affected by Ips typographus L. was0.93. Bark beetle activity has increased in the 21th century, which is associated with changing climatic factors. Unstable precipitation over recent years (differences of more than 100 mm) and an average temperature increase of 1.2 °C were observed in the region. The most significant increase in temperature over the past 10 years was observed in winter, which in turn affected the high survival rate of insect pests.}, }
@article {pmid36430084, year = {2022}, author = {Ghosh, AK and Shapiro, MF and Abramson, D}, title = {Closing the Knowledge Gap in the Long-Term Health Effects of Natural Disasters: A Research Agenda for Improving Environmental Justice in the Age of Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {36430084}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Justice ; *Natural Disasters ; Knowledge ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Natural disasters continue to worsen in both number and intensity globally, but our understanding of their long-term consequences on individual and community health remains limited. As climate-focused researchers, we argue that a publicly funded research agenda that supports the comprehensive exploration of these risks, particularly among vulnerable groups, is urgently needed. This exploration must focus on the following three critical components of the research agenda to promote environmental justice in the age of climate change: (1) a commitment to long term surveillance and care to examine the health impacts of climate change over their life course; (2) an emphasis on interventions using implementation science frameworks; (3) the employment of a transdisciplinary approach to study, address, and intervene on structural disadvantage among vulnerable populations. Without doing so, we risk addressing these consequences in a reactive way at greater expense, limiting the opportunity to safeguard communities and vulnerable populations in the era of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36429517, year = {2022}, author = {Chen, S and Yang, L and Liu, X and Zhu, Z}, title = {Net Primary Productivity Variations Associated with Climate Change and Human Activities in Nanjing Metropolitan Area of China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {36429517}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; China ; Forests ; }, abstract = {Rapid economic development has changed land use and population density, which in turn affects the stability and carbon sequestration capacity of regional ecosystems. Net primary productivity (NPP) can reflect the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems and is affected by both climate change and human activities. Therefore, quantifying the relative contributions of climate change and human activities on NPP can help us understand the impact of climate change and human activities on the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems. At present, researchers have paid more attention to the impact of climate change and land use change on NPP. However, few studies have analyzed the response of the NPP to gross domestic product (GDP) and population density variations on a pixel scale. Therefore, this paper analyzes the impact of climate change and human activities to NPP on a pixel scale in the Nanjing metropolitan area. During the period 2000-2019, the annual mean NPP was 494.89 g C·m[-2]·year[-1], and the NPP in the south of the Nanjing metropolitan area was higher than that in the north. The NPP was higher in the forest, followed by unused land, grassland, and cropland. In the past 20 years, the annual mean NPP showed a significant upward trend, with a growth rate of 3.78 g C·m[-2]·year[-1]. The increase in temperature and precipitation has led to an increasing trend of regional NPP, and the impact of precipitation on NPP was more significant than that of temperature. The transformation of land use from low-NPP type to high-NPP type also led to an increase in NPP. Land use change from high-NPP type to low-NPP type was the main cause of regional NPP decline. Residual analysis was used to analyze the impact of human activities on NPP. Over the last 20 years, the NPP affected by human activities (NPPhum) showed a high spatial pattern in the south and a low spatial pattern in the north, and the annual mean NPPhum also showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a growth rate of 2.00 g C·m[-2]·year[-1]. The NPPhum was influenced by both GDP and population density, and the impact of population density on NPP was greater than that of GDP.}, }
@article {pmid36429393, year = {2022}, author = {Amolegbe, SM and Lopez, AR and Velasco, ML and Carlin, DJ and Heacock, ML and Henry, HF and Trottier, BA and Suk, WA}, title = {Adapting to Climate Change: Leveraging Systems-Focused Multidisciplinary Research to Promote Resilience.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {36429393}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {United States ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Interdisciplinary Research ; Health Promotion ; National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (U.S.) ; Environmental Health ; Hazardous Substances ; }, abstract = {Approximately 2000 official and potential Superfund sites are located within 25 miles of the East or Gulf coasts, many of which will be at risk of flooding as sea levels rise. More than 60 million people across the United States live within 3 miles of a Superfund site. Disentangling multifaceted environmental health problems compounded by climate change requires a multidisciplinary systems approach to inform better strategies to prevent or reduce exposures and protect human health. The purpose of this minireview is to present the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Superfund Research Program (SRP) as a useful model of how this systems approach can help overcome the challenges of climate change while providing flexibility to pivot to additional needs as they arise. It also highlights broad-ranging SRP-funded research and tools that can be used to promote health and resilience to climate change in diverse contexts.}, }
@article {pmid36429383, year = {2022}, author = {Salvador Costa, MJ and Leitão, A and Silva, R and Monteiro, V and Melo, P}, title = {Climate Change Prevention through Community Actions and Empowerment: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {36429383}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health/methods ; Local Government ; Community Participation ; Portugal ; }, abstract = {As society tries to tackle climate change around the globe, communities need to reduce its impact on human health. The purpose of this review is to identify key stakeholders involved in mitigating and adapting to climate change, as well as the type and characteristics of community empowerment actions implemented so far to address the problem. Published and unpublished studies from January 2005 to March 2022 in English and Portuguese were included in this review. The search, conducted on PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, SciELO, and RCAAP (Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal), followed a three-step search strategy. Data extraction was performed by two independent reviewers, using an extraction tool specifically designed for the review questions. Twenty-seven studies were eligible for inclusion: six used interviews as a qualitative method, three were systematic reviews, three were case study analyses, three used surveys and questionnaires as quantitative methods, two used integrative baseline reviews, and three utilized a process model design. Six studies targeted local, public and private stakeholders. Community settings were the context target of fifteen studies, whereas twelve specifically referred to urban settings. Seven types of community actions were acknowledged across the globe, characterised as hybrid interventions and referring to the leading stakeholders: local governments, non-governmental organizations, civil society, universities, public health, and private sectors.}, }
@article {pmid36429237, year = {2022}, author = {Penalver, JG and Armijos, A and Soret, B and Aldaya, MM}, title = {Food Banks against Climate Change, a Solution That Works: A Case Study in Navarra, Spain.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {36429237}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {LCF/PR/PR13/51080004//&quot;La Caixa&quot; Foundation/ ; LCF/PR/PR13/51080004//Fundaci&#xf3;n Caja Navarra/ ; }, abstract = {Worldwide, more than 1.3 billion tonnes of food are wasted each year, which is equivalent to releasing 4.4 Gt of CO2 equivalents (CO2e). In this context, the Food Bank of Navarra (FBN) annually avoids the waste of approximately 3000 tons of perfectly consumable food. The aim of this study was twofold: on the one hand, to analyse the carbon footprint of the FBN and, on the other hand, to perform a comparative analysis of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in two scenarios, "with" and "without" the actions of the FBN, in order to identify and quantify the environmental benefits, in terms of GHG emissions reduction, associated with the reduction in food waste. The analyses were conducted in two different years. The carbon footprint associated with the FBN's activities was 147 t of CO2e in the year 2018. The quantification of GHGs in the scenario "without the FBN" showed that if the FBN did not exist 4715 t of CO2e would have been emitted. The results obtained in consecutive years were similar, highlighting the importance of the FBN-not only in social terms but also environmental terms-as it prevented a large amount of GHGs from being emitted into the atmosphere. A detailed account of the carbon emission reduction associated with the food bank's operations and the knowledge of the benefits involved could boost their positive effects in facilitating the integration of their activities into policies aimed at climate neutrality.}, }
@article {pmid36427742, year = {2023}, author = {Gan, T and Bambrick, H and Ebi, KL and Hu, W}, title = {Does global warming increase the risk of liver cancer in Australia? Perspectives based on spatial variability.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {859}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {160412}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160412}, pmid = {36427742}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Global Warming ; Climate Change ; *Liver Neoplasms/epidemiology ; Australia/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Australia has experienced an astonishing increase in liver cancer over the past few decades and the epidemiological reasons behind this are puzzling. The existing recognized risk factors for liver cancer, viral hepatitis, and alcohol consumption, are inconsistent with the trend in liver cancer. Behind the effects of migration and metabolic disease lies a potential contribution of climate change to an increase in liver cancer. This study explored the climate-associated distribution of high-risk areas for liver cancer by comparing liver cancer to lung cancer and finds that the incidence of liver cancer is more pronounced in hot and humid areas. This study showed the risk of liver cancer was higher in the equatorial region and tropical regions. These results will extend the study on the health consequences of climate change and provide more ideas and directions for future researchers.}, }
@article {pmid36427731, year = {2023}, author = {Xian, X and Zhao, H and Wang, R and Huang, H and Chen, B and Zhang, G and Liu, W and Wan, F}, title = {Climate change has increased the global threats posed by three ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in the Anthropocene.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {859}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {160252}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160252}, pmid = {36427731}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ambrosia ; *Climate Change ; Introduced Species ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; }, abstract = {Invasive alien plants (IAPs) substantially affect the native biodiversity, agriculture, industry, and human health worldwide. Ambrosia (ragweed) species, which are major IAPs globally, produce a significant impact on human health and the natural environment. In particular, invasion of A. artemisiifolia, A. psilostachya, and A. trifida in non-native continents is more extensive and severe than that of other species. Here, we used biomod2 ensemble model based on environmental and species occurrence data to predict the potential geographical distribution, overlapping geographical distribution areas, and the ecological niche dynamics of these three ragweeds and further explored the environmental variables shaping the observed patterns to assess the impact of these IAPs on the natural environment and public health. The ecological niche has shifted in the invasive area compared with that in the native area, which increased the invasion risk of three Ambrosia species during the invasion process in the world. The potential geographical distribution and overlapping geographical distribution areas of the three Ambrosia species are primarily distributed in Asia, North America, and Europe, and are expected to increase under four representative concentration pathways in the 2050s. The centers of potential geographical distributions of the three Ambrosia species showed a tendency to shift poleward from the current time to the 2050s. Bioclimatic variables and the human influence index were more significant in shaping these patterns than other factors. In brief, climate change has facilitated the expansion of the geographical distribution and overlapping geographical distribution areas of the three Ambrosia species. Ecomanagement and cross-country management strategies are warranted to mitigate the future effects of the expansion of these ragweed species worldwide in the Anthropocene on the natural environment and public health.}, }
@article {pmid36427640, year = {2023}, author = {Zhou, L and Chen, R and He, C and Liu, C and Lei, J and Zhu, Y and Gao, Y and Kan, H and Xuan, J}, title = {Ambient heat stress and urolithiasis attacks in China: Implication for climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {217}, number = {}, pages = {114850}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.114850}, pmid = {36427640}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Middle Aged ; Aged ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; Climate Change ; *Occupational Exposure ; Hot Temperature ; Heat-Shock Response ; *Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology/etiology ; China/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although the existing studies have suggested a significant association between high temperatures and urolithiasis, no nationwide studies have quantified the burden attributable to environmental heat stress and explored how the urolithiasis burden would vary in a warming climate.<br><br>METHODS: We collected data on urolithiasis attacks from 137 hospitals in 59 main cities from 20 provincial regions of China from 2000 to 2020. An individual-level case-crossover analysis was conducted to estimate the effect of daily wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), a heat stress index combining temperature and humidity, on urolithiasis attacks. Stratified analyses were performed by region, age, and sex. We further quantified the future WBGT-related burden of urolithiasis from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: In total, 118,180 urolithiasis patients were evaluated. The exposure-response curve for the association between WBGT and urolithiasis attacks was J-shaped, with a significantly increased risk for WBGT higher than 14.8&#xa0;&#xb0;C. The middle-aged and elderly group (&#x2265;45 years old) had a higher risk of WBGT-related urolithiasis attacks than in the younger group, while no significant sex difference was observed. The attributable fraction (AF) due to high WBGT would increase from 10.1% in the 2010s to 16.1% in the 2090s under the SSP585 scenario. Warm regions were projected to experience disproportionately higher AFs and larger increments in the future.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide investigation provides novel evidence on the acute effect of high WBGT on urolithiasis attacks and demonstrates the increasing disease burden in a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid36427389, year = {2023}, author = {Bermúdez-Tamayo, C and García Mochón, L and Ruiz Azarola, A and Lacasaña, M}, title = {[Climate change and vector-borne diseases. From knowledge to action].}, journal = {Gaceta sanitaria}, volume = {37}, number = {}, pages = {102271}, doi = {10.1016/j.gaceta.2022.102271}, pmid = {36427389}, issn = {1578-1283}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Child ; Adolescent ; *Disease Vectors ; Climate Change ; *Vector Borne Diseases/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Andalusia is particularly sensitive to climate change, not only because of extreme weather events, but also because of the impact on the population dynamics of vectors, pathogens, reservoirs and hosts, which has led to a change in the epidemiological patterns of vector-borne diseases. In order to achieve an integrated vector management for disease control, public action is necessary. This study describes the design of the initial phase of a strategy for knowledge translation about climate change and vector-borne diseases to the public, using transdisciplinary co-creation and the World Café participatory method with three discussion rounds to address strategies for three age groups (adults, adolescents and schoolchildren). The aim is to drive knowledge into action and for this purpose the underlying messages for action (strategic and instrumental) have been identified, as well as the formats of the knowledge products and the potential implementers of the strategies.}, }
@article {pmid36427281, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Medwave}, volume = {22}, number = {10}, pages = {e2200}, doi = {10.5867/medwave.2022.10.2200}, pmid = {36427281}, issn = {0717-6384}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36427048, year = {2022}, author = {Abbasi, K}, title = {Africa, climate change and the markets.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine}, volume = {115}, number = {10}, pages = {371}, pmid = {36427048}, issn = {1758-1095}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36426560, year = {2023}, author = {Lindsay, S and Hsu, S and Ragunathan, S and Lindsay, J}, title = {The impact of climate change related extreme weather events on people with pre-existing disabilities and chronic conditions: a scoping review.}, journal = {Disability and rehabilitation}, volume = {45}, number = {25}, pages = {4338-4358}, doi = {10.1080/09638288.2022.2150328}, pmid = {36426560}, issn = {1464-5165}, mesh = {Humans ; *Extreme Weather ; Climate Change ; *Disabled Persons ; Chronic Disease ; Weather ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: People with disabilities experience a disproportionate impact of extreme weather events and there is a critical need to better understand the impact that climate change has for them. Most previous reviews focus on the risk of acquiring a new disability or injury after a climate-related event and not the impact on people with pre-existing disabilities or chronic conditions, which is the purpose of this study.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a scoping review while searching seven international databases that identified 45 studies meeting our inclusion criteria.<br><br>RESULTS: The studies included in our review involved 2 337 199 participants with pre-existing disabilities and chronic conditions across 13 countries over a 20-year period. The findings demonstrated the following trends: (1) the impact on physical and mental health; (2) the impact on education and work; (3) barriers to accessing health and community services (i.e., lack of access to services, lack of knowledge about people with disabilities, communication challenges, lack of adequate housing); and (4) coping strategies (i.e., social supports and connecting to resources) and resilience.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the critical need for rehabilitation clinicians and other service providers to explore opportunities to support their clients in preparing for climate-related emergencies.}, }
@article {pmid36426080, year = {2022}, author = {Kuru, A and Brambilla, A and Lea, T and Grealy, L}, title = {Climate change and indigenous housing performance in Australia: A dataset.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {45}, number = {}, pages = {108751}, doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2022.108751}, pmid = {36426080}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {A recent paper, entitled "Climate change and Indigenous housing performance in Australia: A modelling study" [1], investigated the impacts of climate change on Australian remote and regional Indigenous housing and it highlighted the significant reform necessary to maintain habitable conditions and improve energy resilience. The associated data is reported in this article. This dataset contains annual energy data and hourly internal temperature of six architectural models under current and future climates. The dataset is provided in this article as supplementary files. This original dataset was generated with a whole building simulation approach and can provide insights on the thermal behaviour of current remote and regional Indigenous building stock in regard to global warming and climate resilience. These insights can be used to improve traditional design, construction and retrofit practices, as well as policies and regulation aimed at ensuring liveable and healthy indoor environments for residents of Indigenous housing. Further, this article includes simulation inputs and assumptions used for the analysis to allow robust expansion of the dataset.}, }
@article {pmid36425969, year = {2022}, author = {Koo, KA and Park, SU}, title = {Data on the predictions of plant redistribution under interplays among climate change, land-use change, and dispersal capacity.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {45}, number = {}, pages = {108667}, doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2022.108667}, pmid = {36425969}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {The future distribution data of Pittosporum tobira, Raphiolepis indica var. umbellata, Neolitsea sericea, Ilex integra, and Eurya emarginata were acquired from the MigClim, a GIS-based (hybrid) cellular automation model, modeling and the traditional SDM modeling using BioMod2. The current SDM projections, the traditional SDM predictions, which were assumed the climate-change-only, and model validation were performed using BioMod2 with 686 presence/absence data for each plant species. The MigClim predictions were performed under the combination of two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), two land-use change scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), and four dispersal scenarios (no dispersal, short-distance dispersal, long-distance dispersal, and full dispersal). For the MigClim predictions, the initial distribution map was produced by coupling the current land-use map with the ensemble SDM predictions for each plant. The future habitat suitability map was predicted by coupling the land-use prediction with the SDM predictions under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. For the land-use map, the future land-use maps were predicted under SSP1 and SSP3 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Scenario Generator tool, and the land-use categories were classified into two classes, namely barrier and non-barrier. The degree of dispersal for each species was calculated using a negative exponential function, where the coefficients were 0.005 (∼1 km) and 0.0005 (∼10 km). The future expansion of range was predicted through dispersal simulations of 80 times from 1990 to 2070. The prediction and analyzed data provide essential information and insight for understanding the climate change effects on the warm-adapted plants in interactions with land-use change and the dispersal process. These data can be used for detecting restoration areas for increasing connectivity among habitats, establishing protected areas, and developing environmental policies related to restoration and conservation.}, }
@article {pmid36423915, year = {2022}, author = {Van Niekerk, A}, title = {Injury, energy poverty and climate change.}, journal = {Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention}, volume = {28}, number = {6}, pages = {497-498}, pmid = {36423915}, issn = {1475-5785}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Poverty ; }, }
@article {pmid36423847, year = {2023}, author = {Rossi, JP and Rasplus, JY}, title = {Climate change and the potential distribution of the glassy-winged sharpshooter (Homalodisca vitripennis), an insect vector of Xylella fastidiosa.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {860}, number = {}, pages = {160375}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160375}, pmid = {36423847}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Plant Diseases/microbiology ; *Hemiptera ; Insect Vectors/microbiology ; Introduced Species ; }, abstract = {Biological invasions represent a major threat for biodiversity and agriculture. Despite efforts to restrict the spread of alien species, preventing their introduction remains the best strategy for an efficient control. In that context preparedness of phytosanitary authorities is very important and estimating the geographical range of alien species becomes a key information. The present study investigates the potential geographical range of the glassy-winged sharpshooter (Homalodisca vitripennis), a very efficient insect vector of Xylella fastidiosa, one of the most dangerous plant-pathogenic bacteria worldwide. We use species distribution modeling (SDM) to analyse the climate factors driving the insect distribution and we evaluate its potential distribution in its native range (USA) and in Europe according to current climate and different scenarios of climate change: 6 General Circulation Models (GCM), 4 shared socioeconomic pathways of gas emission and 4 time periods (2030, 2050, 2070, 2090). The first result is that the climate conditions of the European continent are suitable to the glassy-winged sharpshooter, in particular around the Mediterranean basin where X. fastidiosa is present. Projections according to future climate conditions indicate displacement of climatically suitable areas towards the north in both North America and Europe. Globally, suitable areas will decrease in North America and increase in Europe in the coming decades. SDM outputs vary according to the GCM considered and this variability indicated areas of uncertainty in the species potential range. Both potential distribution and its uncertainty associated to future climate projections are important information for improved preparedness of phytosanitary authorities.}, }
@article {pmid36421374, year = {2022}, author = {Dong, PB and Wang, LY and Wang, LJ and Jia, Y and Li, ZH and Bai, G and Zhao, RM and Liang, W and Wang, HY and Guo, FX and Chen, Y}, title = {Distributional Response of the Rare and Endangered Tree Species Abies chensiensis to Climate Change in East Asia.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {36421374}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {GARS-ZYC-1//the Chief Expert of Traditional Chinese Medicinal Industry in Modern Agricultural Industry System of Gansu Province/ ; 70103619011//the Research on breeding, cultivation, storage and processing of traditional Chinese medicinal materials in Beishan, Yuzhong/ ; }, abstract = {Globally, increasing temperatures due to climate change have severely affected natural ecosystems in several regions of the world; however, the impact on the alpine plant may be particularly profound, further raising the risk of extinction for rare and endangered alpine plants. To identify how alpine species have responded to past climate change and to predict the potential geographic distribution of species under future climate change, we investigated the distribution records of A. chensiensis, an endangered alpine plant in the Qinling Mountains listed in the Red List. In this study, the optimized MaxEnt model was used to analyse the key environmental variables related to the distribution of A. chensiensis based on 93 wild distribution records and six environmental variables. The potential distribution areas of A. chensiensis in the last interglacial (LIG), the last glacial maximum (LGM), the current period, and the 2050s and 2070s were simulated. Our results showed that temperature is critical to the distribution of A. chensiensis, with the mean temperature of the coldest quarter being the most important climatic factor affecting the distribution of this species. In addition, ecological niche modeling analysis showed that the A. chensiensis distribution area in the last interglacial experiencing population expansion and, during the last glacial maximum occurring, a population contraction. Under the emission scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s, the suitable distribution area would contract significantly, and the migration routes of the centroids tended to migrate toward the southern high-altitude mountains, suggesting a strong response from the A. chensiensis distribution to climate change. Collectively, the results of this study provide a comprehensive and multidimensional perspective on the geographic distribution pattern and history of population dynamics for the endemic, rare, and endangered species, A. chensiensis, and it underscores the significant impact of geological and climatic changes on the geographic pattern of alpine species populations.}, }
@article {pmid36419276, year = {2023}, author = {Sulukan, E and Baran, A and Kankaynar, M and Kızıltan, T and Bolat, &#x130; and Yıldırım, S and Ceyhun, HA and Ceyhun, SB}, title = {Global warming and glyphosate toxicity (II): Offspring zebrafish modelling with behavioral, morphological and immunohistochemical approaches.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {856}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {158903}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158903}, pmid = {36419276}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Zebrafish/physiology ; *Global Warming ; Ecosystem ; Glycine/toxicity ; Glyphosate ; }, abstract = {The increase in temperature due to global warming greatly affects the toxicity produced by pesticides in the aquatic ecosystem. Studies investigating the effects of such environmental stress factors on next generations are important in terms of the sustainability of ecosystems. In this study, the effects of parental synergistic exposure to glyphosate and temperature increase on the next generation were investigated in a zebrafish model. For this purpose, adult zebrafish were exposed to 1 ppm and 5 ppm glyphosate for 96 h at four different temperatures (28.5, 29.0, 29.5, 30.0 °C). At the end of this period, some of the fish were subjected to the recovery process for 10 days. At the end of both treatments, a new generation was taken from the fish and morphological, physiological, molecular and behavioral analysis were performed on the offspring. According to the results, in parallel with the 0.5-degree temperature increase applied to the parents with glyphosate exposure, lower survival rate, delay in hatching, increased body malformations and lower blood flow and heart rate were detected in the offspring. In addition, according to the results of whole mouth larva staining, increased apoptosis, free oxygen radical formation and lipid accumulation were detected in the offspring. Moreover, it has been observed that the temperature increases to which the parents are exposed affects the light signal transmission and serotonin pathways in the offspring, resulting in more dark/light locomotor activity and increased thigmotaxis.}, }
@article {pmid36418817, year = {2023}, author = {Kiehbadroudinezhad, M and Merabet, A and Hosseinzadeh-Bandbafha, H and Ghenai, C}, title = {Environmental assessment of optimized renewable energy-based microgrids integrated desalination plant: considering human health, ecosystem quality, climate change, and resources.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {29888-29908}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-022-24051-z}, pmid = {36418817}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {RGPIN-2018-05381//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Renewable Energy ; Environment ; Electric Power Supplies ; }, abstract = {Using hybrid renewable energy technology is an efficient method for greenhouse gas mitigation caused by fossil fuel combustion. However, these renewable microgrids are not free from environmental damages, especially during the lifetime of hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES). The main objective of this study is to assess the environmental impacts of three optimized HRES for the Sea Water Reverse Osmosis Desalination (SWROD) plant. An objective optimization was developed using the division algorithm, and the environmental impacts of the optimized HRES were investigated by the life cycle assessment approach. The results showed that producing 1 m[3] freshwater by an optimal size SWROD integrated with wind turbine/battery is responsible for 3.56E - 07 disability-adjusted life year (DALY). It is significantly less than 1 m[3] freshwater production by an optimal size SWROD integrated with solar PV/battery (5.88E - 07 DALY) and solar PV/wind turbine/battery (5.13E - 07 DALY) energy systems. Moreover, 1 m[3] freshwater by a SWROD integrated with proposed microgrids in this study led to a damage of 0.089 to 0.193 potentially disappeared fraction of species (PDF)*m[2]*yr to ecosystem quality. It also results in an emission of 0.143 to 0.339 kg CO2 eq per 1 m[3] freshwater. Furthermore, resources for 1 m[3] freshwater production by a SWROD are calculated at 2.77 to 4.806 MJ primary. Freshwater production by an optimal size SWROD integrated with solar wind/battery compared with solar PV/battery and solar PV/wind turbine/battery had less damage to ecosystem quality, climate, and resources. The results showed reductions of 91.23% in human health, 73.51% in an ecosystem quality, 92.43% in climate change, and 90.08% in resources for producing 1 m[3] of freshwater using SWROD integrated with wind turbine/battery bank compared to fossil-based desalination. Finally, the result showed that solving the optimization problem using the division algorithm compared to other algorithms leads to less environmental damage in freshwater production.}, }
@article {pmid36417541, year = {2022}, author = {Sun, S and Fang, Y and Zu, Y and Liu, L and Li, K}, title = {Increased occurrences of early Indian Ocean Dipole under global warming.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {8}, number = {47}, pages = {eadd6025}, pmid = {36417541}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a prominent mode of ocean-atmosphere interannual variability with great climate and socioeconomic impacts. Early positive IOD (pIOD), a newly discovered type of pIOD, induces pronounced rainfall anomalies in boreal summer more than canonical pIOD. It also contributes to more frequent consecutive pIODs, causing devastating droughts and floods. How early pIOD responds to global warming remains unknown. Here, we show that early pIOD has increased substantially in the past decades, reaching the same frequency as canonical pIOD. The increase is caused by intensified Bjerknes feedback and an early summer monsoon onset, which is the major trigger for early pIOD. Model simulations suggest that the increased frequency of early pIOD is likely to continue under greenhouse warming by the same mechanisms as in the observations, increasing boreal summer climate variability and leading to more climate extremes in affected regions.}, }
@article {pmid36417475, year = {2022}, author = {Heyman, JM and Mayer, A and Alger, J}, title = {Predictions of household water affordability under conditions of climate change, demographic growth, and fresh groundwater depletion in a southwest US city indicate increasing burdens on the poor.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {11}, pages = {e0277268}, pmid = {36417475}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Water ; *Groundwater ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Demography ; Southwestern United States ; }, abstract = {Reduced river flows and groundwater depletion as a result of climate change and population growth have increased the effort and difficulty accessing and processing water. In turn, residential water costs from municipal utilities are predicted to rise to unaffordable rates for poor residential water customers. Building on a regional conjunctive use model with future climate scenarios and 50-year future water supply plans, our study communicates the effects of climate change on poor people in El Paso, Texas, as water becomes more difficult and expensive to obtain in future years. Four scenarios for future water supply and future water costs were delineated based on expected impacts of climate change and groundwater depletion. Residential water use was calculated by census tract in El Paso, using basic needs indoor water use and evaporative cooling use as determinants of household water consumption. Based on household size and income data from the US Census, fraction of household income spent on water was determined. Results reveal that in the future, basic water supply will be a significant burden for 40% of all households in El Paso. Impacts are geographically concentrated in poor census tracts. Our study revealed that negative impacts from water resource depletion and increasing populations in El Paso will lead to costly and difficult water for El Paso water users. We provide an example of how to connect future resource scenarios, including those affected by climate change, to challenges of affordability for vulnerable consumers.}, }
@article {pmid36417352, year = {2022}, author = {Martel-Morin, M and Lachapelle, E}, title = {The Five Canadas of Climate Change: Using audience segmentation to inform communication on climate policy.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {11}, pages = {e0273977}, pmid = {36417352}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Canada ; *Communication ; Policy ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {This study examines how unique audience segments within the Canadian population think and act toward climate change, and explores whether and how the level of audience engagement moderates the effect of various messages on support for climate policy. Drawing on a random probability sample of Canadian residents (N = 1207) conducted in October 2017, we first identify and describe five distinct audiences that vary in their attitudes, perceptions and behaviours with respect to climate change: the Alarmed (25%), Concerned (45%), Disengaged (5%), Doubtful (17%) and Dismissive (8%). We then explore how each segment responds to different messages about carbon pricing in Canada. We find that messages alluding to earmarking (i.e., "Invest in solutions") or leveling the playing field for alternative energy sources (i.e., "Relative price") increase support for a higher carbon price among the population as a whole. However, these messages decreased support for carbon pricing among more engaged audiences (e.g., Alarmed) when a low carbon price was specified to the respondent. Meanwhile, the "Relative price" is the only message that increased policy support among less engaged audiences-the Concerned and the Doubtful. In addition to highlighting the importance of tailoring and targeting messages for differently engaged segments, these results suggest that communicating around the specific consequences of carbon taxes for the prices of some goods may be a fruitful way to enhance support for carbon taxes among relatively less engaged audiences.}, }
@article {pmid36416768, year = {2022}, author = {Thomson, MC and Stanberry, LR}, title = {Climate Change and Vectorborne Diseases.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {387}, number = {21}, pages = {1969-1978}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMra2200092}, pmid = {36416768}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Vector Borne Diseases/etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36416581, year = {2023}, author = {Kusunose, Y and Rossi, JJ and Van Sanford, DA and Alderman, PD and Anderson, JA and Chai, Y and Gerullis, MK and Jagadish, SVK and Paul, PA and Tack, JB and Wright, BD}, title = {Sustaining productivity gains in the face of climate change: A research agenda for US wheat.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {926-934}, pmid = {36416581}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {EXC 2070 - 390732324 - PhenoRob//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; 2020-67013-31681//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; }, mesh = {*Triticum/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Plant Breeding ; Hot Temperature ; Droughts ; }, abstract = {Wheat is a globally important crop and one of the "big three" US field crops. But unlike the other two (maize and soybean), in the United States its development is commercially unattractive, and so its breeding takes place primarily in public universities. Troublingly, the incentive structures within these universities may be hindering genetic improvement just as climate change is complicating breeding efforts. "Business as usual" in the US public wheat-breeding infrastructure may not sustain productivity increases. To address this concern, we held a multidisciplinary conference in which researchers from 12 US (public) universities and one European university shared the current state of knowledge in their disciplines, aired concerns, and proposed initiatives that could facilitate maintaining genetic improvement of wheat in the face of climate change. We discovered that climate-change-oriented breeding efforts are currently considered too risky and/or costly for most university wheat breeders to undertake, leading to a relative lack of breeding efforts that focus on abiotic stressors such as drought and heat. We hypothesize that this risk/cost burden can be reduced through the development of appropriate germplasm, relevant screening mechanisms, consistent germplasm characterization, and innovative models predicting the performance of germplasm under projected future climate conditions. However, doing so will require coordinated, longer-term, inter-regional efforts to generate phenotype data, and the modification of incentive structures to consistently reward such efforts.}, }
@article {pmid36415234, year = {2022}, author = {Atwole, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Pakistan journal of medical sciences}, volume = {38}, number = {8}, pages = {2058-2060}, pmid = {36415234}, issn = {1682-024X}, }
@article {pmid36414270, year = {2022}, author = {Ahmad, A and Pratt, V and Gougsa, S}, title = {Where is the land and indigenous knowledge in understanding land trauma and land based violence in climate change?.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o2790}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2790}, pmid = {36414270}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Violence ; Knowledge ; }, }
@article {pmid36413573, year = {2022}, author = {Salan, MSA and Hossain, MM and Sumon, IH and Rahman, MM and Kabir, MA and Majumder, AK}, title = {Measuring the impact of climate change on potato production in Bangladesh using Bayesian Hierarchical Spatial-temporal modeling.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {11}, pages = {e0277933}, pmid = {36413573}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Solanum tuberosum ; Bayes Theorem ; Bangladesh ; Markov Chains ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Potato is a staple food and a main crop of Bangladesh. Climate plays an important role in different crop production all over the world. Potato production is influenced by climate change, which is occurring at a rapid pace according to time and space.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this research is to observe the variation in potato production based on the discrepancy of the variability in the spatial and temporal domains. The research is based on secondary data on potato production from different parts of Bangladesh and five major climate variables for the last 17 years ending with 2020.<br><br>METHODS: Bayesian Spatial-temporal modelling for linear, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and auto-Regressive models were used to find the best-fitted model compared with the independent Error Bayesian model. The Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) were used as the model choice criteria and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method was implemented to generate information about the prior and posterior realizations.<br><br>RESULTS: Findings revealed that the ANOVA model under the Spatial-temporal framework was the best model for all model choice and validation criteria. Results depict that there is a significant impact of spatial and temporal variation on potato yield rate. Besides, the windspeed does not show any influence on potato production, however, temperature, humidity, rainfall, and sunshine are important components of potato yield rate in Bangladesh.<br><br>CONCLUSION: It is evident that there is a potential impact of climate change on potato production in Bangladesh. Therefore, the authors believed that the findings will be helpful to the policymakers or farmers in developing potato varieties that are resilient to climate change to ensure the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal of zero hunger.}, }
@article {pmid36413112, year = {2023}, author = {Förderer, EM and Rödder, D and Langer, MR}, title = {Global diversity patterns of larger benthic foraminifera under future climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {969-981}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16535}, pmid = {36413112}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {LA 884/10-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Foraminifera/physiology ; Coral Reefs ; Global Warming ; Temperature ; Biodiversity ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Global warming threatens the viability of tropical coral reefs and associated marine calcifiers, including symbiont-bearing larger benthic foraminifera (LBF). The impacts of current climate change on LBF are debated because they were particularly diverse and abundant during past warm periods. Studies on the responses of selected LBF species to changing environmental conditions reveal varying results. Based on a comprehensive review of the scientific literature on LBF species occurrences, we applied species distribution modeling using Maxent to estimate present-day and future species richness patterns on a global scale for the time periods 2040-2050 and 2090-2100. For our future projections, we focus on Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which projects mean surface temperature changes of +2.2°C by the year 2100. Our results suggest that species richness in the Central Indo-Pacific is two to three times higher than in the Bahamian ecoregion, which we have identified as the present-day center of LBF diversity in the Atlantic. Our future predictions project a dramatic temperature-driven decline in low-latitude species richness and an increasing widening bimodal latitudinal pattern of species diversity. While the central Indo-Pacific, now the stronghold of LBF diversity, is expected to be most pushed outside of the currently realized niches of most species, refugia may be largely preserved in the Atlantic. LBF species will face large-scale non-analogous climatic conditions compared to currently realized climate space in the near future, as reflected in the extensive areas of extrapolation, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Our study supports hypotheses that species richness and biogeographic patterns of LBF will fundamentally change under future climate conditions, possibly initiating a faunal turnover by the late 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid36411953, year = {2023}, author = {Murphy, MJ}, title = {Climate change and clinical biochemistry.}, journal = {Annals of clinical biochemistry}, volume = {60}, number = {1}, pages = {3-5}, doi = {10.1177/00045632221140991}, pmid = {36411953}, issn = {1758-1001}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Biochemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid36411925, year = {2022}, author = {Mulungu, K and Kangogo, D}, title = {Striving to be resilient: the role of crop-poultry integrated system as a climate change adaptation strategy in semiarid eastern Kenya.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {e11579}, pmid = {36411925}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change continues to pose significant challenges to food security and livelihoods of smallholder farmers specifically in semi-arid regions. One approach that holds prospects for climate risk management is climate-smart agriculture (CSA). CSA has concentrated on crop practices with little attention to livestock especially indigenous (village) chickens as a potential practice that can be combined with crop agriculture. This study considers the adoption of three CSA practices: improved maize seeds (IS), soil management (SM), indigenous chicken (IC) enterprise and their various combinations. Using survey data collected from 300 farming households in semiarid Kenya, we estimate the impact of integrated crop-poultry system adoption on food security and farm income using multinomial endogenous treatment effect models. Robustness checks are conducted using alternative identification strategies. Results show that, generally, the adoption of IS, SM, IC and their combinations reduces the number of months without enough food and increases farm income. When we consider the magnitude of the impacts, interesting results emerge when a combination of the CSA practices are considered. The highest impact is observed with the joint adoption of SM &amp; IC and IS &amp;IC. Broadly, the empirical findings suggest that integrated systems (in our case crop-poultry integration), deserve both policy and research attention as they provide synergistic benefits that improve climate resilience and household welfare.}, }
@article {pmid36409941, year = {2022}, author = {Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {The western journal of emergency medicine}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {823-825}, pmid = {36409941}, issn = {1936-9018}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36408006, year = {2022}, author = {Salem, MR and Hegazy, N and Thabet Mohammed, AA and Mahrous Hassan, E and Saad Abdou, MM and Zein, MM}, title = {Climate change-related knowledge and attitudes among a sample of the general population in Egypt.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1047301}, pmid = {36408006}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Egypt ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Attitude ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Identifying the public awareness and risk perception regarding climate change, are fundamental preliminary steps in determining gaps and paving the way for awareness campaigns that address climate change causes and counteraction mitigation measures. However, few studies were conducted in Egypt; thus, the researchers conducted the current cross-sectional study among a sample of the Egyptian population to identify general knowledge and perception about climate change and its effects, as well as attitudes toward mitigation measures.<br><br>METHODS: An exploratory population-based electronic-open survey, was conducted among 527 members of the general population between January and April 2022, using a convenience sampling technique. A pre-tested 2-page (screen) electronic included three sections: sociodemographic characteristics, global warming/climate change-related knowledge, and attitude toward climate change mitigation.<br><br>RESULTS: The average global warming knowledge score was 12 &#xb1; 3. More than 70% (71.1%) of the participants were knowledgeable (percentage score >70%). Approximately half of the enrolled participants (48.2%) agreed that everyone is vulnerable to the effects of global warming/climate change. More than three-quarters (78.3%) of the participants agreed that carbon emissions from vehicles and industrial methane emissions were the first factors that contributed to climate change, followed by the ozone holes (731%). Global warming/climate change-related knowledge was statistically higher in participants aged of >30 years, married participants, urban residents, highly educated individuals, and employed individuals (p-value &#x2264; 0.05). Approximately 80% of the participants agreed that responding to the questionnaire drew their attention to the topic of climate change and its effects. More than two-thirds of those polled agreed that increasing public transportation use could help mitigate the effects of climate change/global warming, followed by the materials used and the direction of construction.<br><br>CONCLUSION: More than two-thirds of the participants were knowledgeable regarding climate change. Social media and the internet were the main sources of information. However, participants need to get the information in a different way that could help in changing their attitude positively toward the issue of climate change mitigation. The current study recommends the need for various initiatives that work should be launched.}, }
@article {pmid36407693, year = {2022}, author = {Al-Adawi, S}, title = {Climate Projections Indicate Catastrophic Consequences in the Middle East and North Africa Region: Why healthcare workers are conspicuously absent in climate change discourse.}, journal = {Sultan Qaboos University medical journal}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {441-442}, pmid = {36407693}, issn = {2075-0528}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Middle East ; Africa, Northern ; Forecasting ; *Health Personnel ; }, }
@article {pmid36407589, year = {2022}, author = {Civantos-Gómez, I and Rubio Teso, ML and Galeano, J and Rubiales, D and Iriondo, JM and García-Algarra, J}, title = {Climate change conditions the selection of rust-resistant candidate wild lentil populations for in situ conservation.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1010799}, pmid = {36407589}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Crop Wild Relatives (CWR) are a valuable source of genetic diversity that can be transferred to commercial crops, so their conservation will become a priority in the face of climate change. Bizarrely, in situ conserved CWR populations and the traits one might wish to preserve in them are themselves vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we used a quantitative machine learning predictive approach to project the resistance of CWR populations of lentils to a common disease, lentil rust, caused by fungus Uromyces viciae-fabae. Resistance is measured through a proxy quantitative value, DSr (Disease Severity relative), quite complex and expensive to get. Therefore, machine learning is a convenient tool to predict this magnitude using a well-curated georeferenced calibration set. Previous works have provided a binary outcome (resistant vs. non-resistant), but that approach is not fine enough to answer three practical questions: which variables are key to predict rust resistance, which CWR populations are resistant to rust under current environmental conditions, and which of them are likely to keep this trait under different climate change scenarios. We first predict rust resistance in present time for crop wild relatives that grow up inside protected areas. Then, we use the same models under future climate IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios to predict future DSr values. Populations that are rust-resistant by now and under future conditions are optimal candidates for further evaluation and in situ conservation of this valuable trait. We have found that rust-resistance variation as a result of climate change is not uniform across the geographic scope of the study (the Mediterranean basin), and that candidate populations share some interesting common environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36406292, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health}, volume = {46}, number = {}, pages = {e214}, pmid = {36406292}, issn = {1680-5348}, }
@article {pmid36405051, year = {2022}, author = {Southard, EML and Randell, H}, title = {Climate Change, Agrarian Distress, and the Feminization of Agriculture in South Asia.}, journal = {Rural sociology}, volume = {87}, number = {3}, pages = {873-900}, pmid = {36405051}, issn = {0036-0112}, support = {P2C HD041025/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Agrarian distress-the experience wherein sustaining an agricultural livelihood becomes increasingly challenging-is well documented in South Asia. Another regional trend is the feminization of agriculture, or an increase in women's work and decision-making in agriculture. Scholars have recently linked these two phenomena, demonstrating that agrarian distress results in the movement of men out of agriculture, driving women into the sector. Yet what remains underexplored is the relationship between climate change, a contributor to agrarian distress, and the feminization of agriculture. To examine this, we link socioeconomic and demographic data from India, Bangladesh, and Nepal to high-resolution gridded climate data. We then estimate a set of multivariate regression models to explore linkages between recent temperature and precipitation variability from historical norms and the likelihood that a woman works in agriculture. Results suggest that hotter-than-normal conditions in the year prior to the survey are associated with an increased likelihood of working in agriculture among women. This relationship is particularly strong among married women and women with less than a primary education. While more research is needed to fully understand the mechanisms between climate change and the feminization of agriculture, our findings suggest a need for gender-sensitive climate change adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid36403300, year = {2022}, author = {Philippe, C and Thoré, ESJ and Verbesselt, S and Grégoir, AF and Brendonck, L and Pinceel, T}, title = {Combined effects of global warming and chlorpyrifos exposure on the annual fish Nothobranchius furzeri.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {248}, number = {}, pages = {114290}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2022.114290}, pmid = {36403300}, issn = {1090-2414}, mesh = {Male ; Animals ; Global Warming ; *Chlorpyrifos/toxicity ; Ecosystem ; *Cyprinodontiformes ; Environmental Pollution ; }, abstract = {Global warming and environmental pollution threaten aquatic ecosystems. While interactive effects between both stressors can have more than additive consequences, these remain poorly studied for most taxa. Especially chronic exposure trials with vertebrates are scarce due to the high time- and monetary costs of such studies. We use the recently-established fish model Nothobranchius furzeri to assess the separate and combined effects of exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos (at 2 µg/L and 4 µg/L) and a 2 °C temperature increase. We performed a full life-cycle assessment to evaluate fitness-related endpoints including survival, total body length, maturation time, fecundity, critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and locomotor activity. Exposure to 4 µg/L chlorpyrifos slowed down male maturation, reduced fecundity and impaired growth of the fish. While the temperature increase did not affect any of the measured endpoints on its own, the combination of exposure to 2 µg/L CPF with an increase of 2 °C reduced growth and severely reduced fecundity, with almost no offspring production. Together, these findings suggest that climate change may exacerbate the impact of environmental pollution, and that interactive effects of chronic exposure to multiple stressors should be considered to predict how populations will be affected by ongoing global change.}, }
@article {pmid36403105, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Journal of global health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {01004}, pmid = {36403105}, issn = {2047-2986}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36402419, year = {2023}, author = {Guardia, G and Abalos, D and Mateo-Marín, N and Nair, D and Petersen, SO}, title = {Using DMPP with cattle manure can mitigate yield-scaled global warming potential under low rainfall conditions.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {316}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {120679}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2022.120679}, pmid = {36402419}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Cattle ; Animals ; *Phosphates ; *Manure ; Global Warming ; Dimethylphenylpiperazinium Iodide ; Soil ; Zea mays ; Sand ; }, abstract = {Organic fertilisers can reduce the carbon (C) footprint from croplands, but adequate management strategies such as the use of nitrification inhibitors are required to minimise side-effects on nitrogen (N) losses to the atmosphere or waterbodies. This could be particularly important in a context on changing rainfall patterns due to climate change. A lysimeter experiment with maize (Zea mays L.) was set up on a coarse sandy soil to evaluate the efficacy of 3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP) to mitigate nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, nitrate (NO3[-]) leaching losses and net global warming potential from manure, with (R+) and without (R-) simulated rainfall events. Soil water availability was a limiting factor for plant growth and microbial processes due to low rainfall during the growing season. Nitrification was effectively inhibited by DMPP, decreasing topsoil NO3[-] concentrations by 28% on average and cumulative N2O losses by 82%. Most of the N2O was emitted during the growing season, with annual emission factors of 0.07% and 0.95% for manure with and without DMPP, respectively. Cumulative N2O emissions were 40% higher in R-compared to R+, possibly because of the higher topsoil NO3[-] concentrations. There was no effect of DMPP or rainfall amount on annual NO3[-] leaching losses, which corresponded to 12% of manure-N and were mainly driven by the post-harvest period. DMPP did not affect yield or N use efficiency (NUE) while R-caused severe reductions on biomass and NUE. We conclude that dry growing seasons can jeopardize crop production while concurrently increasing greenhouse gas emissions from a sandy soil. The use of nitrification inhibitors is strongly recommended under these conditions to address the climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid36402112, year = {2022}, author = {Strandén, I and Kantanen, J and Lidauer, MH and Mehtiö, T and Negussie, E}, title = {Animal board invited review: Genomic-based improvement of cattle in response to climate change.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {16}, number = {12}, pages = {100673}, doi = {10.1016/j.animal.2022.100673}, pmid = {36402112}, issn = {1751-732X}, mesh = {Female ; Cattle/genetics ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Genome ; Genomics ; Phenotype ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Climate change brings challenges to cattle production, such as the need to adapt to new climates and pressure to reduce greenhouse emissions (GHG). In general, the improvement of traits in current breeding goals is favourably correlated with the reduction of GHG. Current breeding goals and tools for increasing cattle production efficiency have reduced GHG. The same amount of production can be achieved by a much smaller number of animals. Genomic selection (GS) may offer a cost-effective way of using an efficient breeding approach, even in low- and middle-income countries. As climate change increases the intensity of heatwaves, adaptation to heat stress leads to lower efficiency of production and, thus, is unfavourable to the goal of reducing GHG. Furthermore, there is evidence that heat stress during cow pregnancy can have many generation-long lowering effects on milk production. Both adaptation and reduction of GHG are among the difficult-to-measure traits for which GS is more efficient and suitable than the traditional non-genomic breeding evaluation approach. Nevertheless, the commonly used within-breed selection may be insufficient to meet the new challenges; thus, cross-breeding based on selecting highly efficient and highly adaptive breeds may be needed. Genomic introgression offers an efficient approach for cross-breeding that is expected to provide high genetic progress with a low rate of inbreeding. However, well-adapted breeds may have a small number of animals, which is a source of concern from a genetic biodiversity point of view. Furthermore, low animal numbers also limit the efficiency of genomic introgression. Sustainable cattle production in countries that have already intensified production is likely to emphasise better health, reproduction, feed efficiency, heat stress and other adaptation traits instead of higher production. This may require the application of innovative technologies for phenotyping and further use of new big data techniques to extract information for breeding.}, }
@article {pmid36401571, year = {2023}, author = {Lokmic-Tomkins, Z and Nayna Schwerdtle, P and Armstrong, F}, title = {Engaging with our responsibility to protect health from climate change.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {79}, number = {6}, pages = {e41-e44}, doi = {10.1111/jan.15508}, pmid = {36401571}, issn = {1365-2648}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Social Behavior ; }, }
@article {pmid36401142, year = {2023}, author = {de Angeli Dutra, D and Salloum, PM and Poulin, R}, title = {Vector microbiome: will global climate change affect vector competence and pathogen transmission?.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {122}, number = {1}, pages = {11-17}, pmid = {36401142}, issn = {1432-1955}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; *Microbiota ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases are among the greatest causes of human suffering globally. Several studies have linked climate change and increasing temperature with rises in vector abundance, and in the incidence and geographical distribution of diseases. The microbiome of vectors can have profound effects on how efficiently a vector sustains pathogen development and transmission. Growing evidence indicates that the composition of vectors' gut microbiome might change with shifts in temperature. Nonetheless, due to a lack of studies on vector microbiome turnover under a changing climate, the consequences for vector-borne disease incidence are still unknown. Here, we argue that climate change effects on vector competence are still poorly understood and the expected increase in vector-borne disease transmission might not follow a relationship as simple and straightforward as past research has suggested. Furthermore, we pose questions that are yet to be answered to enhance our current understanding of the effect of climate change on vector microbiomes, competence, and, ultimately, vector-borne diseases transmission.}, }
@article {pmid36401014, year = {2023}, author = {Wei, J and Khan, S}, title = {Climate risk, natural resources, and climate change mitigation options in BRICS: implications for green recovery.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {29015-29028}, pmid = {36401014}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Natural Resources ; Economic Development ; Risk Reduction Behavior ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {The study tests the dynamic nexus between climate risk, natural resource exploration strategy in BRICS economies, and climate change mitigation. The study further extended the research aim and presented the recommendations for greening the globe by suggesting green recovery. Climate change protection and climate risk reduction may be efficiently funded using climate risks and natural resources. Still, it is vital to look at the carbon risk in BRICS countries as an example. The researchers used the GMM analysis technique to infer the study findings. According to the study's findings, environmental mitigation was significant at 17%, and financial strength and carbon risks were significant at 22.0%. In addition, the 20.5% association between climate risks and environmental drift in the BRICS nations highlights climate change concerns. A state's financial strength is essential to execute green economic recovery strategies, one of the most highly regarded measures to reducing climate change and guaranteeing long-term economic status at the national level. As a result of the study on green economic growth, decision-makers are provided with specific policy recommendations.}, }
@article {pmid36401006, year = {2023}, author = {Joof, F and Samour, A and Tursoy, T and Ali, M}, title = {Climate change, insurance market, renewable energy, and biodiversity: double-materiality concept from BRICS countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {28676-28689}, pmid = {36401006}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Economic Development ; Carbon Dioxide ; Renewable Energy ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {The threat of biodiversity loss and mass extinction of species with an aftermath will shape all lives now and those to come. In this context, recent empirical studies illustrate various drivers of biodiversity for better environmental quality; however, the impact of the insurance market has not been thoroughly examined. Likewise, the possible non-linearities between biodiversity and its determinants are ignored in the current empirical literature for BRICS economies. Therefore, this work is the first to explore the effect of the insurance market, climate change, and renewable energy on biodiversity in BRICS economies using an advanced method of the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) method. The findings illustrated that a decline in the insurance market alleviates biodiversity loss and stimulates environmental quality. In contrast, an increasing insurance market augments biodiversity loss and negatively affects ecological quality. Furthermore, the findings uncovered that carbon emissions are detrimental to environmental quality. Lastly, the results report that reducing the level of renewable energy worsens biodiversity loss while boosting renewable energy utilization declines biodiversity loss. The policymakers and regulatory authorities in the BRICS should adopt the risk-based approach proposed by the network of greening the financial system (NGFS) to tackle the dilemma of double materiality between financial institutions and biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid36400923, year = {2022}, author = {Karami, S and Ejtehadi, H and Moazzeni, H and Vaezi, J and Behroozian, M}, title = {Minimal climate change impacts on the geographic distribution of Nepeta glomerulosa, medicinal species endemic to southwestern and central Asia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {19893}, pmid = {36400923}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Nepeta ; Endangered Species ; Asia ; }, abstract = {Medicinal plants are valuable species, but their geographic distributions may be limited or exposed to extinction by climate change. Therefore, research on medicinal plants in the face of climate change is fundamental for developing conservation strategies. Distributional patterns for a semi-endemic medicinal plant species, Nepeta glomerulosa, distributed in southwestern and central Asia was determined based on a maximum-entropy algorithm. We evaluated potential geographic shifts in suitability patterns for this species under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) of climate change for 2060. Our models based on climatic features indicate that the species occupies montane areas under current conditions; transfer of the model to future climate scenarios indicated that suitable areas for the species will increase in general, and the species will likely track its favored set of climate conditions. But the types and degrees of these changes differ among areas. Our findings can be used to inform conservation management programs for medicinal, endemic, and endangered species that probably respond similarly to climate change in southwestern and central Asia.}, }
@article {pmid36400762, year = {2022}, author = {Minoli, S and Jägermeyr, J and Asseng, S and Urfels, A and Müller, C}, title = {Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {7079}, pmid = {36400762}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Acclimatization ; Crop Production ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Adaptive management of crop growing periods by adjusting sowing dates and cultivars is one of the central aspects of crop production systems, tightly connected to local climate. However, it is so far underrepresented in crop-model based assessments of yields under climate change. In this study, we integrate models of farmers' decision making with biophysical crop modeling at the global scale to simulate crop calendars adaptation and its effect on crop yields of maize, rice, sorghum, soybean and wheat. We simulate crop growing periods and yields (1986-2099) under counterfactual management scenarios assuming no adaptation, timely adaptation or delayed adaptation of sowing dates and cultivars. We then compare the counterfactual growing periods and corresponding yields at the end of the century (2080-2099). We find that (i) with adaptation, temperature-driven sowing dates (typical at latitudes >30°N-S) will have larger shifts than precipitation-driven sowing dates (at latitudes <30°N-S); (ii) later-maturing cultivars will be needed, particularly at higher latitudes; (iii) timely adaptation of growing periods would increase actual crop yields by ~12%, reducing climate change negative impacts and enhancing the positive CO2 fertilization effect. Despite remaining uncertainties, crop growing periods adaptation require consideration in climate change impact assessments.}, }
@article {pmid36400092, year = {2023}, author = {Costello, A and Romanello, M and Hartinger, S and Gordon-Strachan, G and Huq, S and Gong, P and Kjellstrom, T and Ekins, P and Montgomery, H}, title = {Climate change threatens our health and survival within decades.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {401}, number = {10371}, pages = {85-87}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(22)02353-4}, pmid = {36400092}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; }, }
@article {pmid36399290, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, J and Xue, Y and Mao, Z and Irfan, M and Wu, H}, title = {How to improve total factor energy efficiency under climate change: does export sophistication matter?.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {28162-28172}, pmid = {36399290}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Efficiency ; Technology ; Economic Development ; China ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a profound impact on human survival and development. Climate change is an energy and economic issue, which should be driven by technology. Total factor energy efficiency (TFEE) improvement is undoubtedly a breakthrough in solving energy problems. In this paper, the fixed effect model, impulse response function, and threshold regression model are used to test the complex relationship between export sophistication and TFEE. The results reveal that export sophistication improvement leads to higher TFEE. The impulse response results verify the existence of a phased and positive correlation between export sophistication and TFEE. Finally, the relationship between export sophistication and TFEE significantly varied across different threshold levels of regional corruption score, economic development, and openness. This article led the foundation for supporting China's export sophistication promotion strategy and also provides a reference for energy efficiency improvement and energy crisis response in the post-pandemic era.}, }
@article {pmid36389612, year = {2022}, author = {Hyland, CJ and Yates, EF and Gadiraju, G and Dey, T and Broyles, JM}, title = {Public Perceptions of Climate Change and Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery.}, journal = {Plastic and reconstructive surgery. Global open}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {e4442}, pmid = {36389612}, issn = {2169-7574}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Healthcare has a major impact on climate change, and surgery is among the most energy-intensive hospital practices. Although most Americans believe climate change is happening, little is known regarding public awareness of the impact of healthcare on climate change and how this may impact perceptions of plastic surgery.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was administered to adults in the United States using Amazon Mechanical Turk in December 2021 to assess public perceptions of climate change, healthcare, and plastic surgery. Incomplete responses were excluded from analysis. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of responses.<br><br>RESULTS: There were 890 complete responses. Most participants strongly agreed or agreed that climate change is happening (89%). Fewer believed that healthcare has an impact on climate change (62%), with greater odds among respondents with an associate's degree or higher (odds ratio 2.8, P < 0.001). After they were given information about the impact of healthcare on climate change, most respondents were more worried about the effects of cosmetic plastic surgery (64%). Many respondents would be willing to engage in personal climate change mitigation measures if undergoing surgery and pay higher professional fees to support sustainable hospital practices.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Most Americans believe climate change is happening, but fewer believe healthcare has an impact on climate change. Knowledge regarding the impact of healthcare and surgery on climate change may make patients more worried about the effects of plastic surgery on climate change, but patients may be willing to personally mitigate climate impacts of surgery.}, }
@article {pmid36389529, year = {2022}, author = {Mohapatra, S and Mohapatra, S and Han, H and Ariza-Montes, A and López-Martín, MDC}, title = {Climate change and vulnerability of agribusiness: Assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {955622}, pmid = {36389529}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {The current study has mapped the impact of changes in different climatic parameters on the productivity of major crops cultivated in India like cereal, pulses, and oilseed crops. The vulnerability of crops to different climatic conditions like exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive indicators along with its different components and agribusiness has been studied. The study uses data collected over the past six decades from 1960 to 2020. Analytical tools such as the Tobit regression model and Principal Component Analysis were used for the investigation which has shown that among climatic parameters, an increase in temperature along with huge variations in rainfall and consistent increase in CO2 emissions have had a negative impact by reducing crop productivity, particularly cereals (26 percent) and oilseed (35 percent). Among various factors, adaptive factors such as cropping intensity, agricultural machinery, and livestock density in combination with sensitivity factors such as average operational land holding size and productivity of cereals, and exposure indicators like Kharif (June-September) temperature, heavy rainfall, and rate of change in maximum and minimum Rabi (October-February) temperature have contributed significantly in increasing crop vulnerability. The agribusiness model needs to be more inclusive. It should pay attention to small and remote farmers, and provide them with inclusive finance that can facilitate the adoption of climate-smart financial innovations, serve the underserved segments, and help them reach the target of a sustainable and inclusive agribusiness model. Though the social, technological, and economic initiatives can enhance the adaptive capacity of farmers, political measures still have a major role to play in providing a healthy climate for agriculture in India through tailored adaptive approaches like the adoption of craft climate adaptation program, dilating the irrigation coverage and location-centric management options. Hence, multidisciplinary and holistic approaches are worth emphasizing for evaluating the future impacts of change in climate on Indian agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid36387427, year = {2022}, author = {Mulopo, J}, title = {A mini-review of practical interventions of renewable energy for climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa in the last decade (2010-2020): implications and perspectives.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {e11296}, pmid = {36387427}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {As part of the Kyoto Protocol, several Sub-Saharan Africa countries vowed to use more renewable energy sources, and the number of Sub-Saharan Africa countries that have undertaken renewable energy initiatives has expanded considerably over the preceding decade. However, assuring demand while reducing climate change has always been one of the most significant difficulties confronting the global energy sector. This review looks at the state of practical renewable energy interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa countries over the last decade (2010-2020), focusing on infrastructure development and accessibility, decentralization, distribution, and communal acceptance, donor funding and private sector involvement, and the role of state political influence in renewable energy strategies. This study's findings suggest that renewable energy interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa are based on mature and commercialized technologies, that natural resources for energy generation have not been fully explored, and that ongoing research and development on raw material or feedstock availability will benefit regional and national projects. The findings also show that off-grid technology interventions exist in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the adoption of a decentralized approach to renewable energy generation, particularly in rural areas, financing, and the need for integrated project design and implementation, which includes factors such as community mobilization, social, economic, institutional, and technical engagement, have all hampered the implementation of such technologies.}, }
@article {pmid36385346, year = {2023}, author = {Kayhomayoon, Z and Naghizadeh, F and Malekpoor, M and Arya Azar, N and Ball, J and Ghordoyee Milan, S}, title = {Prediction of evaporation from dam reservoirs under climate change using soft computing techniques.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {27912-27935}, pmid = {36385346}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Artificial Intelligence ; *Fuzzy Logic ; Climate Change ; Algorithms ; Machine Learning ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to predict evaporation from dam reservoirs using artificial intelligence considering climate change. Mahabad Dam, near Lake Urmia, in northwestern Iran, is used to investigate the proposed approach. There are three parts to the study presented herein. In the first part, two machine learning models, namely group method of data handling (GMDH) and least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR), were used to model the inflow to the dam reservoir. Temperature, precipitation, and inflow during the previous month from 1990 to 2017 were used as input data. In the second part, the evaporation from the dam reservoir was modeled using the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and optimized ANFIS using Harris hawks optimization (HHO) and the arithmetic optimization algorithm (AOA) optimization algorithms. The input parameters in this part were temperature, precipitation, inflow to the dam reservoir, along with evaporation from the dam reservoir in the previous month. In the third part, precipitation and temperature were predicted using the fifth report of IPCC based on RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios for the period 2020-2040. Out of 28 models presented in the fifth report, EC-ERATH and FIO-ESM had the greatest similarity with observational data of temperature and precipitation, respectively. The results of scatter plots and Taylor's diagram showed the higher performance of LS-SVR (root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 8.65, 4.69, and 0.96) compared to GMDH (RMSE, MAPE, and NSE of 11.65, 7.81, and 0.93) in modeling the inflow. Moreover, both hybrid modes (AOA-ANFIS and HHO-ANFIS) improved the performance of ANFIS in modeling the evaporation from the dam reservoir. The RMSE, MAPE, and NSE values for ANFIS were 0.56, 0.52, and 0.89, respectively, while these values for the AOA-ANFIS (RMSE, MAPE, and NSE of 0.31, 0.24, and 0.93) and HHO-ANFIS (RMSE, MAPE, and NSE of 0.20, 0.30, and 0.96) were improved remarkably. The impact of climate change reduced the inflow to the dam reservoir by about 0.45, 0.80, and 1.7 MCM in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Also, the effect of climate change caused the evaporation from the dam reservoir to increase by about 0.2, 0.9, and 1 MCM in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The findings of this study show that the correct management of dam reservoirs needs to consider the potential effects of climate change in the future. Moreover, the hybrid machine learning models used in this study can be used to predict the amount of evaporation in other reservoirs.}, }
@article {pmid36385181, year = {2022}, author = {Crandon, TJ and Dey, C and Scott, JG and Thomas, HJ and Ali, S and Charlson, FJ}, title = {The clinical implications of climate change for mental health.}, journal = {Nature human behaviour}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {1474-1481}, pmid = {36385181}, issn = {2397-3374}, mesh = {Humans ; *Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects mental health through multiple pathways, including direct and indirect impacts, physical health and awareness of the climate crisis. Climate change increases the magnitude and frequency of extreme events with little or no time for recovery. This Review aims to provide an overview of the current evidence to inform the mental health field's response to climate change. While further innovation is needed, promising approaches for health professionals are identified at the levels of interventions for individuals, community and system-wide responses, and advocacy and education. Health worker training is important, so we offer guidance on mental health assessment and clinical risks from climate change. We also outline strategies to enhance individual and community psychological resilience and promising approaches to working with people experiencing emerging climate-related disorders. Beyond clinical care, mental health professionals can lead on climate action and sustainability in health care and can research and educate on the health effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36385180, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {Climate change and human behaviour.}, journal = {Nature human behaviour}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {1441-1442}, pmid = {36385180}, issn = {2397-3374}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid36385175, year = {2022}, author = {Adger, WN and Barnett, J and Heath, S and Jarillo, S}, title = {Climate change affects multiple dimensions of well-being through impacts, information and policy responses.}, journal = {Nature human behaviour}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {1465-1473}, pmid = {36385175}, issn = {2397-3374}, support = {216014/Z/19/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Policy ; }, abstract = {The consequences of climate change and responses to climate change interact with multiple dimensions of human well-being in ways that are emerging or invisible to decision makers. We examine how elements of well-being-health, safety, place, self and belonging-are at risk from climate change. We propose that the material impacts of a changing climate, discourses and information on future and present climate risks, and policy responses to climate change affect all these elements of well-being. We review evidence on the scale and scope of these climate change consequences for well-being and propose policy and research priorities that are oriented towards supporting well-being though a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid36385148, year = {2022}, author = {Creedy, TJ and Asare, RA and Morel, AC and Hirons, M and Mason, J and Malhi, Y and McDermott, CL and Opoku, E and Norris, K}, title = {Climate change alters impacts of extreme climate events on a tropical perennial tree crop.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {19653}, pmid = {36385148}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {109238-003//International Development Research Centre/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Trees ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Crops, Agricultural ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change causes more frequent and intense fluctuations in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Understanding the effects of ENSO on agricultural systems is crucial for predicting and ameliorating impacts on lives and livelihoods, particularly in perennial tree crops, which may show both instantaneous and delayed responses. Using cocoa production in Ghana as a model system, we analyse the impact of ENSO on annual production and climate over the last 70 years. We report that in recent decades, El Niño years experience reductions in cocoa production followed by several years of increased production, and that this pattern has significantly shifted compared with prior to the 1980s. ENSO phase appears to affect the climate in Ghana, and over the same time period, we see corresponding significant shifts in the climatic conditions resulting from ENSO extremes, with increasing temperature and water stress. We attribute these changes to anthropogenic climate change, and our results illustrate the big data analyses necessary to improve understanding of perennial crop responses to climate change in general, and climate extremes in particular.}, }
@article {pmid36384657, year = {2023}, author = {Louis, S and Carlson, AK and Suresh, A and Rim, J and Mays, M and Ontaneda, D and Dhawan, A}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Neurologic Health, Disease, and Practice: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {Neurology}, volume = {100}, number = {10}, pages = {474-483}, pmid = {36384657}, issn = {1526-632X}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Temperature ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Environmental Pollutants ; *Stroke ; *Dementia ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although the international community collectively seeks to reduce global temperature rise to less than 1.5°C before 2100, irreversible environmental changes have already occurred, and as the planet warms, these changes will continue to occur. As we witness the effects of a warming planet on human health, it is imperative that neurologists anticipate how the epidemiology and incidence of neurologic disease may change. In this review, we organized our analysis around 3 key themes related to climate change and neurologic health: extreme weather events and temperature fluctuations, emerging neuroinfectious diseases, and pollutant impacts. Across each of these themes, we appraised and reviewed recent literature relevant to neurologic disease and practice.<br><br>METHODS: Studies were identified using search terms relating to climate change, pollutants, and neurologic disease in PubMed, OVID MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycInfo, and gray literature. Studies published between 1990 and 2022 were included if they pertained to human incidence or prevalence of disease, were in English, and were relevant to neurologic disease.<br><br>RESULTS: We identified a total of 364 articles, grouped into the 3 key themes of our study: extreme weather events and temperature fluctuations (38 studies), emerging neuroinfectious diseases (37 studies), and pollutant impacts (289 studies). The included studies highlighted the relationships between neurologic symptom exacerbation and temperature variability, tick-borne infections and warming climates, and airborne pollutants and cerebrovascular disease incidence and severity.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Temperature extremes and variability both associated with stroke incidence and severity, migraine headaches, hospitalization in patients with dementia, and multiple sclerosis exacerbations. Exposure to airborne pollutants, especially PM2.5 and nitrates, associated with stroke incidence and severity, headaches, dementia risk, Parkinson disease, and MS exacerbation. Climate change has demonstrably expanded favorable conditions for zoonotic diseases beyond traditional borders and poses the risk of disease in new, susceptible populations. Articles were biased toward resource-rich regions, suggesting a discordance between where research occurs and where changes are most acute. As such, 3 key priorities emerged for further study: neuroinfectious disease risk mitigation, understanding the pathophysiology of airborne pollutants on the nervous system, and methods to improve delivery of neurologic care in the face of climate-related disruptions.}, }
@article {pmid36384617, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, YH and Li, DH and Lu, GY and Jiang, YY and Huang, PC}, title = {[Characteristics of climate change and its impacts on water resources in Qilian Mountains, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {33}, number = {10}, pages = {2805-2812}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202210.024}, pmid = {36384617}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ice Cover ; Rain ; Snow ; *Water Resources ; China ; }, abstract = {Qilian Mountains, is an important ecological function area, an important ecological security barrier, the river runoff region in Northwest China, as well as a sensitive area to global climate change and fragile area of ecological environment. The ecological environment in this area played an important role in the economic development of Northwest China. Based on the observation data of temperature and precipitation in Qilian Mountains, MOD10A2 snow products and the flow data of Shiyang River, Heihe River and Shule River, we systematically analyzed the characteristics of climate change from 1961 to 2020, and the impacts of climate change on water resources under the scenario of climate warming. The results showed that, from 1961 to 2020, the annual average temperature increased significantly, with the rate reaching 0.39 ℃·(10 a)[-1]. The warming rate was the highest in the western part of Qilian Mountains, followed by the middle and eastern regions. The warming trend was the strongest in winter and the lowest in spring. The average temperature changed abruptly in 1997. The annual average precipitation increased with flucturation, with a rate of 10 mm·(10 a)[-1], which increased most obviously in the middle of Qilian Mountains. After 2004, it entered a rainy period, with a warm and humid trend. The precipitation in the four seasons showed an increasing trend and the increase of precipitation in summer contributed the most to the annual precipitation. Annual precipitation was dominated by interannual scale change, and the contribution rate of 2.8-year was approximately 64.3%. The snow cover of Qilian Mountains was obviously affected by temperature and snowfall, which was negatively correlated with summer temperature and positively correlated with snowfall. From 2016 to 2020, the temperature increase had slowed down in Qilian Mountains, the snowfall had increased, and the snow cover tended to increase. After 2000, the temperature and precipitation increased more obviously, the meltwater from glacier and snow increased, the mountainous runoff of Shiyang River, Heihe River and Shule River had an increasing trend. Our findings are of great significance to the construction of ecological civilization and coping with climate change in Qilian Mountains.}, }
@article {pmid36384449, year = {2023}, author = {Pagán-Santana, M and Liebman, AK and Seda, CH}, title = {Deepening the Divide: Health Inequities and Climate Change among Farmworkers.}, journal = {Journal of agromedicine}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {57-60}, doi = {10.1080/1059924X.2022.2148034}, pmid = {36384449}, issn = {1545-0813}, mesh = {Humans ; *Farmers ; Climate Change ; Environment ; Risk Factors ; Health Inequities ; *Transients and Migrants ; }, abstract = {Climate change amplifies social inequities, disproportionately impacting the health and well-being of populations already vulnerable to social risk factors associated with race, ethnicity, immigration status, and occupation. Recent hurricanes, extreme temperatures, wildfires, and droughts have directly impacted vulnerable populations, including farmworkers in the US and its territories. Understanding how systems increase poor health outcomes for farmworkers is important to create solutions that are practical, feasible, and sustainable. In this commentary, we discuss a framework to assess the climate crisis and its impact on farmworkers. Although environmental stressors impact all populations, the difference in the systems or structures surrounding individuals can increase the risks and diseases of vulnerable populations when responding to the effects of the climate crisis. This framework presents policies and systems that could be limiting for agricultural workers when exposed to environmental stressors and the direct or indirect consequences of not addressing them.}, }
@article {pmid36383529, year = {2022}, author = {Rikani, A and Frieler, K and Schewe, J}, title = {Climate change and international migration: Exploring the macroeconomic channel.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {11}, pages = {e0276764}, pmid = {36383529}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Emigration and Immigration ; *Climate Change ; Population Dynamics ; Demography ; Income ; Economics ; }, abstract = {International migration patterns, at the global level, can to a large extent be explained through economic factors in origin and destination countries. On the other hand, it has been shown that global climate change is likely to affect economic development over the coming decades. Here, we demonstrate how these future climate impacts on national income levels could alter the global migration landscape. Using an empirically calibrated global migration model, we investigate two separate mechanisms. The first is through destination-country income, which has been shown consistently to have a positive effect on immigration. As countries' income levels relative to each other are projected to change in the future both due to different rates of economic growth and due to different levels of climate change impacts, the relative distribution of immigration across destination countries also changes as a result, all else being equal. Second, emigration rates have been found to have a complex, inverted U-shaped dependence on origin-country income. Given the available migration flow data, it is unclear whether this dependence-found in spatio-temporal panel data-also pertains to changes in a given migration flow over time. If it does, then climate change will additionally affect migration patterns through origin countries' emigration rates, as the relative and absolute positions of countries on the migration "hump" change. We illustrate these different possibilities, and the corresponding effects of 3°C global warming (above pre-industrial) on global migration patterns, using climate model projections and two different methods for estimating climate change effects on macroeconomic development.}, }
@article {pmid36383467, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference-Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {JAMA health forum}, volume = {3}, number = {11}, pages = {e224566}, doi = {10.1001/jamahealthforum.2022.4566}, pmid = {36383467}, issn = {2689-0186}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36383466, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference-Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {JAMA ophthalmology}, volume = {141}, number = {1}, pages = {11-12}, doi = {10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2022.5271}, pmid = {36383466}, issn = {2168-6173}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36383463, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference-Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {JAMA cardiology}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {10-11}, doi = {10.1001/jamacardio.2022.4517}, pmid = {36383463}, issn = {2380-6591}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36383461, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference-Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {JAMA psychiatry}, volume = {80}, number = {1}, pages = {10-11}, doi = {10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2022.4106}, pmid = {36383461}, issn = {2168-6238}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36383460, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference-Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {328}, number = {22}, pages = {2215-2216}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2022.20637}, pmid = {36383460}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36383454, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference-Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {JAMA internal medicine}, volume = {183}, number = {1}, pages = {9-10}, doi = {10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.5640}, pmid = {36383454}, issn = {2168-6114}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36383453, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference-Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {JAMA dermatology}, volume = {159}, number = {1}, pages = {21-23}, doi = {10.1001/jamadermatol.2022.5429}, pmid = {36383453}, issn = {2168-6084}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36383450, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference-Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {JAMA neurology}, volume = {80}, number = {1}, pages = {16-17}, doi = {10.1001/jamaneurol.2022.4468}, pmid = {36383450}, issn = {2168-6157}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36383449, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference-Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {JAMA oncology}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {173-175}, doi = {10.1001/jamaoncol.2022.6371}, pmid = {36383449}, issn = {2374-2445}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36383448, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference-Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {JAMA pediatrics}, volume = {177}, number = {1}, pages = {11-13}, doi = {10.1001/jamapediatrics.2022.4899}, pmid = {36383448}, issn = {2168-6211}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36383446, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference-Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {JAMA network open}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {e2244300}, doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.44300}, pmid = {36383446}, issn = {2574-3805}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36380744, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and Atwoli, L and Erhabor, G and Gbakima, A and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {88}, number = {1}, pages = {97}, pmid = {36380744}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36377781, year = {2023}, author = {Eckardt, NA and Cutler, S and Juenger, TE and Marshall-Colon, A and Udvardi, M and Verslues, PE}, title = {Focus on climate change and plant abiotic stress biology.}, journal = {The Plant cell}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, pmid = {36377781}, issn = {1532-298X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plants/genetics ; Stress, Physiological ; Biology ; }, }
@article {pmid36377598, year = {2023}, author = {Cusworth, G and Brice, J and Lorimer, J and Garnett, T}, title = {When you wish upon a (GWP) star: Environmental governance and the reflexive performativity of global warming metrics.}, journal = {Social studies of science}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, pages = {3-28}, pmid = {36377598}, issn = {1460-3659}, support = {205212/Z/16/Z//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Benchmarking ; Environmental Policy ; Policy ; }, abstract = {The metrics used in environmental management are performative. That is, the tools deployed to classify and measure the natural world interact with the things they were designed to observe. The idea of performativity also captures the way these interactions shape or distort the governance activities that metrics are used to inform. The performativity of metrics reveals how mundane practices of measurement and auditing are inscribed with substantial power. This has proven particularly true for the global warming metrics, like GWP100, that are central to the management of anthropogenic climate change. Greenhouse gases are materially heterogenous, and the metrics used to commensurate their various warming impacts influence the distribution of both culpability and capital in climate policy and markets. The publication of a new warming metric, GWP* (or GWP Star), has generated a modest scientific controversy, as a diverse cast of stakeholders recognize this performativity seek to influence the metrological regime under which they live. We analyse this controversy, particularly as it unfolded in the fractious discourse around sustainable food and farming, to develop the concept of reflexive performativity: where actors are anticipatory and strategic in their engagement with the metrics that are used to govern their lives. We situate this idea in relation to, and in tentative evidential support of, the concept of reflexive modernization.}, }
@article {pmid36376998, year = {2023}, author = {Sgubin, G and Swingedouw, D and Mignot, J and Gambetta, GA and Bois, B and Loukos, H and Noël, T and Pieri, P and García de Cortázar-Atauri, I and Ollat, N and van Leeuwen, C}, title = {Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {808-826}, pmid = {36376998}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {776613//European Union's Horizon 2020 EUCP/ ; }, mesh = {*Wine ; Global Warming ; Biodiversity ; Temperature ; Europe ; Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Evaluating the potential climatic suitability for premium wine production is crucial for adaptation planning in Europe. While new wine regions may emerge out of the traditional boundaries, most of the present-day renowned winemaking regions may be threatened by climate change. Here, we analyse the future evolution of the geography of wine production over Europe, through the definition of a novel climatic suitability indicator, which is calculated over the projected grapevine phenological phases to account for their possible contractions under global warming. Our approach consists in coupling six different de-biased downscaled climate projections under two different scenarios of global warming with four phenological models for different grapevine varieties. The resulting suitability indicator is based on fuzzy logic and is calculated over three main components measuring (i) the timing of the fruit physiological maturity, (ii) the risk of water stress and (iii) the risk of pests and diseases. The results demonstrate that the level of global warming largely determines the distribution of future wine regions. For a global temperature increase limited to 2°C above the pre-industrial level, the suitable areas over the traditional regions are reduced by about 4%/°C rise, while for higher levels of global warming, the rate of this loss increases up to 17%/°C. This is compensated by a gradual emergence of new wine regions out of the traditional boundaries. Moreover, we show that reallocating better-suited grapevine varieties to warmer conditions may be a viable adaptation measure to cope with the projected suitability loss over the traditional regions. However, the effectiveness of this strategy appears to decrease as the level of global warming increases. Overall, these findings suggest the existence of a safe limit below 2°C of global warming for the European winemaking sector, while adaptation might become far more challenging beyond this threshold.}, }
@article {pmid36375084, year = {2022}, author = {Constantino, SM and Cooperman, AD and Keohane, RO and Weber, EU}, title = {Personal hardship narrows the partisan gap in COVID-19 and climate change responses.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {46}, pages = {e2120653119}, pmid = {36375084}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Humans ; United States/epidemiology ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Politics ; Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; }, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic in the United States was characterized by a partisan gap. Democrats were more concerned about this novel health threat, more willing to socially distance, and more likely to support policies aimed at mitigating the spread of the virus than Republicans. In cross-sectional analyses of three nationally representative survey waves in 2020, we find that adverse experience with COVID-19 is associated with a narrowing of the partisan gap. The mean difference between Republicans and Democrats in concern, policy support, and behavioral intentions narrows or even disappears at high levels of self-reported adverse experience. Reported experience does not depend on party affiliation and is predicted by local COVID-19 incidence rates. In contrast, analyses of longitudinal data and county-level incidence rates do not show a consistent relationship among experience, partisanship, and behavior or policy support. Our findings suggest that self-reported personal experience interacts with partisanship in complex ways and may be an important channel for concern about novel threats such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We find consistent results for self-reported experience of extreme weather events and climate change attitudes and policy preferences, although the association between extreme weather and experience and climate change is more tenuous.}, }
@article {pmid36372180, year = {2023}, author = {Yue, Y and Geng, L and Li, M}, title = {The impact of climate change on aeolian desertification: A case of the agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {859}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {160126}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160126}, pmid = {36372180}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Reproducibility of Results ; Environmental Monitoring ; Sand ; China ; }, abstract = {Land desertification, one of the gravest eco-environmental problems in the world, has been proven to be critically influenced by climate change. However, the information on the future spatial-temporal patterns of land desertification under climate change has been rarely explored, which restricts the proposal of reasonable desertification control countermeasures to adapt to climate change. The agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China (APENC) is the most critical eco-environmental barrier in China and is also a climate change-sensitive area prone to aeolian desertification. We quantitatively assessed the risk of aeolian desertification in the APENC to climate change and social-economic development in the near-term (2010-2039), mid-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099) by integrating the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios using a data-mining approach. The C5.0 decision tree algorithm demonstrated acceptable reliability in aeolian desertification classification. Aeolian desertification in the APENC shows a significant persistent decreasing trend in 2010-2099 under RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3 scenarios, whereas first increased in mid-term then decreased under RCP6.0-SSP2 scenarios. Aeolian desertification risk is lowest under the RCP2.6-SSP1 scenarios, while it is highest under the RCP6.0-SSP2 scenarios. With climate change and socioeconomic development, the risk of aeolian desertification in APENC was generally dominated by a slight grade, i.e., >70 %. While the moderate and severe grades still occupy vast areas, approximately 20 %, and 10 %, respectively, which mainly distributed in and around the Hulunbuir Sandy Land and the Horqin Sandy Land, showing the hot spots of desertification in the APENC. The reversal trend of aeolian desertification risk in the APENC might be initiated by the significant decrease of wind speed. This work highlights the great potential of data-mining approaches on climate change and social-economic development-related land desertification assessment.}, }
@article {pmid36371628, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {58}, number = {11}, pages = {1921-1923}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.16245}, pmid = {36371628}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36371540, year = {2022}, author = {Toreti, A and Bassu, S and Asseng, S and Zampieri, M and Ceglar, A and Royo, C}, title = {Climate service driven adaptation may alleviate the impacts of climate change in agriculture.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {1235}, pmid = {36371540}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Agriculture ; Acclimatization ; Triticum ; Adaptation, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Building a resilient and sustainable agricultural sector requires the development and implementation of tailored climate change adaptation strategies. By focusing on durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) in the Euro-Mediterranean region, we estimate the benefits of adapting through seasonal cultivar-selection supported by an idealised agro-climate service based on seasonal climate forecasts. The cost of inaction in terms of mean yield losses, in 2021-2040, ranges from -7.8% to -5.8% associated with a 7% to 12% increase in interannual variability. Supporting cultivar choices at local scale may alleviate these impacts and even turn them into gains, from 0.4% to 5.3%, as soon as the performance of the agro-climate service increases. However, adaptation advantages on mean yield may come with doubling the estimated increase in the interannual yield variability.}, }
@article {pmid36370729, year = {2022}, author = {Neta, G and Pan, W and Ebi, K and Buss, DF and Castranio, T and Lowe, R and Ryan, SJ and Stewart-Ibarra, AM and Hapairai, LK and Sehgal, M and Wimberly, MC and Rollock, L and Lichtveld, M and Balbus, J}, title = {Advancing climate change health adaptation through implementation science.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {e909-e918}, pmid = {36370729}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {P2C HD065563/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Implementation Science ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {To date, there are few examples of implementation science studies that help guide climate-related health adaptation. Implementation science is the study of methods to promote the adoption and integration of evidence-based tools, interventions, and policies into practice to improve population health. These studies can provide the needed empirical evidence to prioritise and inform implementation of health adaptation efforts. This Personal View discusses five case studies that deployed disease early warning systems around the world. These cases studies illustrate challenges to deploying early warning systems and guide recommendations for implementation science approaches to enhance future research. We propose theory-informed approaches to understand multilevel barriers, design strategies to overcome those barriers, and analyse the ability of those strategies to advance the uptake and scale-up of climate-related health interventions. These findings build upon previous theoretical work by grounding implementation science recommendations and guidance in the context of real-world practice, as detailed in the case studies.}, }
@article {pmid36370728, year = {2022}, author = {Green, R and Scheelbeek, P and Bentham, J and Cuevas, S and Smith, P and Dangour, AD}, title = {Growing health: global linkages between patterns of food supply, sustainability, and vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {e901-e908}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00223-6}, pmid = {36370728}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {210794/Z/18/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 205200/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Vegetables ; Fruit ; Sugars ; }, abstract = {Global food systems are developing rapidly, and have resulted in a large burden of disease and a high proportion of environmental resource use. We combined global data sources on food supply and trade, environmental footprints, burdens of disease, and vulnerability to climate change to explore patterns from 1990 to 2017. Four distinct patterns of food supply (animal sources and sugar, vegetables and nuts, starchy roots and fruits, and seafood and oils) were matched to health and environmental risks. The animal sources and sugar pattern was found to have the greatest environmental footprint and to be associated with a greater burden of chronic disease than any other pattern, although it was also associated with lower undernutrition. This pattern is globally predominant, but has begun to decrease in higher income countries. Countries where this pattern is predominant are generally among the least susceptible to climate change, whereas more susceptible countries tend to have more sustainable patterns of food supply. More countries that are susceptible to climate change are increasingly exporting a larger proportion than before of their cereals, fruit, and vegetables globally, which will lead to increased risks in global food security. To increase resilience to future shocks, dietary change towards more sustainable patterns should accelerate in high-income countries, and the food systems of the most susceptible countries should be protected.}, }
@article {pmid36370642, year = {2022}, author = {Raza, MM and Bebber, DP}, title = {Climate change and plant pathogens.}, journal = {Current opinion in microbiology}, volume = {70}, number = {}, pages = {102233}, doi = {10.1016/j.mib.2022.102233}, pmid = {36370642}, issn = {1879-0364}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Temperature ; Plant Diseases ; }, abstract = {Global food security is threatened by climate change, both directly through responses of crop physiology and productivity, and indirectly through responses of plant-associated microbiota, including plant pathogens. While the interactions between host plants, pathogens and environmental drivers can be complex, recent research is beginning to indicate certain overall patterns in how plant diseases will affect crop production in future. Here, we review the results of three methodological approaches: large-scale observational studies, process-based disease models and experimental comparisons of pathosystems under current and future conditions. We find that observational studies have tended to identify rising temperatures as the primary driver of disease impact. Process-based models suggest that rising temperatures will lead to latitudinal shifts in disease pressure, but drying conditions could mitigate disease risk. Experimental studies suggest that rising atmospheric CO2 will exacerbate disease impacts. Plant diseases may therefore counteract any crop yield increases due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36370313, year = {2023}, author = {Wang, W and Zhao, L and Li, W and Chen, J and Wang, S}, title = {Response mechanism of sediment organic matter of plateau lakes in cold and arid regions to climate change: a case study of Hulun Lake, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {26778-26790}, pmid = {36370313}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2018YFE0196000//the National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Lakes ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Climate Change ; Geologic Sediments ; Carbon Isotopes/analysis ; Carbon/analysis ; China ; Water ; }, abstract = {Lake organic matter is one of the important forms of terrestrial carbon, and its sedimentary evolution is affected by many factors such as climate and sources. However, few studies have been conducted on the feedback mechanism of the sedimentary evolution of organic matter to climate change in cold and arid lakes. Historical variations and compositions of sources of the sediment organic matter (SOM) of Hulun Lake, a typical lake in the cold and arid region of China, were studied by multiple methods. The interactions and fee7dback mechanisms between the sedimentary evolution of SOM and climate change, and compositions of SOM source change, were also discussed. Overall, the characteristic indexes of the SOM, including total organic carbon (TOC), carbon stable isotope (δ[13]C), carbon to nitrogen ratio (C/N), and fluorescence intensity (FI) of the protein-like component in water extractable organic matter (WEOM), showed obvious and uniform characteristics of periodical changes. The indexes were relatively stable before 1920, and fluctuated from 1920 to 1979. Since the 1980s, values of TOC, δ[13]C, and FI of the protein-like component in WEOM has increased, while C/N decreased. The absolute dominant contribution of terrestrial source to the SOM had changed, and the relative average contribution rate of autochthonous source increased from 17.6% before 1920 to 36.9% after 2000. The increase of temperature, strong evaporation concentration effect, and change of compositions of SOM sources are the important driving factors of the sedimentary evolution of organic matter in Hulun Lake.}, }
@article {pmid36369819, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The journal of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {201-203}, doi = {10.1177/14782715221137400}, pmid = {36369819}, issn = {2042-8189}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36369565, year = {2022}, author = {Kociubinska, J}, title = {Human health, climate change and PPE use during the COVID-19 pandemic.}, journal = {British dental journal}, volume = {233}, number = {9}, pages = {778}, doi = {10.1038/s41415-022-5247-x}, pmid = {36369565}, issn = {1476-5373}, mesh = {Humans ; *COVID-19/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Pandemics/prevention &amp; control ; Personal Protective Equipment ; Climate Change ; Infectious Disease Transmission, Patient-to-Professional ; Health Personnel ; }, }
@article {pmid36369448, year = {2023}, author = {Valappil, NKM and Hamza, V and de Oliveira Júnior, JF}, title = {Evaluation of daily average temperature trends in Kerala, India, using MERRA-2 reanalysis data: a climate change perspective.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {26663-26686}, pmid = {36369448}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Food ; India ; Retrospective Studies ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) data for a period of 40 years (1980-2019) was used to detect the trend characteristics of daily average temperature in the state of Kerala, India. Data extracted from a total of fifty locations in the state were statistically processed using Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman's Rho (SR) tests to detect the trend, Pettitt test to identify the single change point, and Theil-Sen's method for the calculation of the rate of change. The MERRA-2 product is validated for the study region according to statistical indicators. The daily average temperature in the state during the period of study varies between 16.56 and 32.64 °C. The spatial pattern of daily average maximum temperature shows higher temperature domains in the central and southern parts of the state. Trend characteristics of daily average temperature assessed through MK and SR tests show a significant increasing trend in all stations, with maximum values in stations located in the northern part of the state. Change point detected through the Pettitt test divided the sampling stations into three groups based on the change in daily average temperature characteristics in the years 2002 (north zone), 2009 (south zone), and 2012 (central zone), indicating nonunique spatial variability in temperature characteristics in the state. The rate of change in the daily average temperature assessed indicates an increase at the rate of an average of 0.013 °C.year[-1]. During the whole study period, the daily average temperature showed an overall increase of 0.54 °C, and for the 100-year futuristic prediction, the daily average temperature in the state shows an average increase of 1.35 °C. Among the stations, a higher rate of increase in daily average temperature is shown by stations located in the eastern part of the Pathanamthitta, Idukki, and Kollam districts. Though the rise in daily average temperature is not much higher, its spatial characteristics require more attention because, in recent times, the study area has faced repeated, severe, and long drought conditions along with sunburn incidents. As an agrarian state, a change in the temperature domain will adversely affect the overall agricultural production and will evoke not only a food crisis but also economic as well as water resources issues. The result obtained can be used as holistic basic information for understanding the impending effect of climate change in the state to frame better mitigation as well as management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid36369297, year = {2023}, author = {Plunge, S and Gudas, M and Povilaitis, A and Piniewski, M}, title = {Evaluation of the costs of agricultural diffuse water pollution abatement in the context of Lithuania's water protection goals and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {71}, number = {4}, pages = {755-772}, pmid = {36369297}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Water ; *Climate Change ; Goals ; Lithuania ; Agriculture/methods ; Water Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Crops, Agricultural ; }, abstract = {This study aimed at evaluating the scale and costs of an environmentally and economically optimal set of Best Management Practices (BMPs) for agricultural pollution abatement in Lithuania in order to reach water protection goals in both inland and marine waters by distributing BMPs optimally in space, while taking climate change impacts into consideration. The assessment of BMPs impact involved the use of the SWAT model by applying two climate change representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two time horizons (mid-century and end-century), as well as five BMPs (arable land conversion to grasslands, reduced fertilization, no-till farming, catch-crops, and stubble fields throughout winter). The optimization of the set of BMPs employed a genetic algorithm. The results suggest that the need for BMPs application will increase from 52% of agricultural areas in the historical period up to 65% by the end of century in the RCP8.5 scenario. This means less arable land could actually be used for crop production in the future if water protection targets are met. The high costs for reaching water targets would rise even more, i.e. by 173% for RCP4.5, and by 220% for the RCP8.5 scenario, reaching approximately 200 million euros/year. In such a context, the BMP optimization approach is essential for significant reduction of the costs. Winter cover crops and reduced fertilization show the best effectiveness and cost balance, and will therefore be essential in pursuing water protection targets.}, }
@article {pmid36368927, year = {2023}, author = {Spooner, R and Clack, A and Parslow Williams, S and Mortimer, F}, title = {Empowering students and health workers to take action on climate change.}, journal = {Medical teacher}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {444-445}, doi = {10.1080/0142159X.2022.2133693}, pmid = {36368927}, issn = {1466-187X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Students ; Health Personnel ; Power, Psychological ; }, }
@article {pmid36367603, year = {2023}, author = {Saeed, A and Ali, S and Khan, F and Muhammad, S and Reboita, MS and Khan, AW and Goheer, MA and Khan, MA and Kumar, R and Ikram, A and Jabeen, A and Pongpanich, S}, title = {Modelling the impact of climate change on dengue outbreaks and future spatiotemporal shift in Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {45}, number = {6}, pages = {3489-3505}, pmid = {36367603}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {GCISC-NIH//Global change impact study centre/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a significant impact on the intensity and spread of dengue outbreaks. The objective of this study is to assess the number of dengue transmission suitable days (DTSD) in Pakistan for the baseline (1976-2005) and future (2006-2035, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099) periods under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Moreover, potential spatiotemporal shift and future hotspots of DTSD due to climate change were also identified. The analysis is based on fourteen CMIP5 models that have been downscaled and bias-corrected with quantile delta mapping technique, which addresses data stationarity constraints while preserving future climate signal. The results show a higher DTSD during the monsoon season in the baseline in the study area except for Sindh (SN) and South Punjab (SP). In future periods, there is a temporal shift (extension) towards pre- and post-monsoon. During the baseline period, the top ten hotspot cities with a higher frequency of DTSD are Karachi, Hyderabad, Sialkot, Jhelum, Lahore, Islamabad, Balakot, Peshawar, Kohat, and Faisalabad. However, as a result of climate change, there is an elevation-dependent shift in DTSD to high-altitude cities, e.g. in the 2020s, Kotli, Muzaffarabad, and Drosh; in the 2050s, Garhi Dopatta, Quetta, and Zhob; and in the 2080s, Chitral and Bunji. Karachi, Islamabad, and Balakot will remain highly vulnerable to dengue outbreaks for all the future periods of the twenty-first century. Our findings also indicate that DTSD would spread across Pakistan, particularly in areas where we have never seen dengue infections previously. The good news is that the DTSD in current hotspot cities is projected to decrease in the future due to climate change. There is also a temporal shift in the region during the post- and pre-monsoon season, which provides suitable breeding conditions for dengue mosquitos due to freshwater; therefore, local authorities need to take adaption and mitigation actions.}, }
@article {pmid36365876, year = {2022}, author = {Cui, L and He, M and Zou, Z and Yao, C and Wang, S and An, J and Wang, X}, title = {The Influence of Climate Change on Droughts and Floods in the Yangtze River Basin from 2003 to 2020.}, journal = {Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {22}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {36365876}, issn = {1424-8220}, support = {42074172//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Floods ; *Rivers ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, extreme floods and droughts have occurred frequently around the world, which seriously threatens the social and economic development and the safety of people's lives and properties. Therefore, it is of great scientific significance to discuss the causes and characteristic quantization of extreme floods and droughts. Here, the terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its Follow-On (GRACE-FO) data was used to characterize the floods and droughts in the Yangtze River basin (YRB) during 2003 and 2020. To reduce the uncertainty of TWSC results, the generalized three-cornered hat and least square methods were used to fuse TWSC results from six GRACE solutions. Then combining precipitation (PPT), evapotranspiration, soil moisture (SM), runoff, and extreme climate index data, the influence of climate change on floods and droughts in the YRB was discussed and analyzed. The results show that the fused method can effectively improve the uncertainty of TWSC results. And seven droughts and seven floods occurred in the upper of YRB (UY) and nine droughts and six floods appeared in the middle and lower of YRB (MLY) during the study period. The correlation between TWSC and PPT (0.33) is the strongest in the UY, and the response time between the two is 1 month, while TWSC and SM (0.67) are strongly correlated with no delay in the MLY. The reason for this difference is mainly due to the large-scale hydropower development in the UY. Floods and droughts in the UY and MLY are more influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (correlation coefficients are 0.39 and 0.50, respectively) than the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (correlation coefficients are 0.19 and 0.09, respectively). The IOD event is usually accompanied by the ENSO event (the probability is 80%), and the hydrological hazards caused by independent ENSO events are less severe than those caused by these two extreme climate events in the YRB. Our results provide a reference for the study on the formation, development, and recovery mechanism of regional floods and droughts on a global scale.}, }
@article {pmid36365382, year = {2022}, author = {Antolín, MC and Salinas, E and Fernández, A and Gogorcena, Y and Pascual, I and Irigoyen, JJ and Goicoechea, N}, title = {Prospecting the Resilience of Several Spanish Ancient Varieties of Red Grape under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {36365382}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2018-21//University of Navarra/ ; Group A09-20R//Gobierno de Arag&#xf3;n/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change results in warmer air temperatures and an uncertain amount and distribution of annual precipitations, which will directly impact rainfed crops, such as the grapevine. Traditionally, ancient autochthones grapevine varieties have been substituted by modern ones with higher productivity. However, this homogenization of genotypes reduces the genetic diversity of vineyards which could make their ability to adapt to challenges imposed by future climate conditions difficult. Therefore, this work aimed to assess the response of four ancient grapevine varieties to high temperatures under different water availabilities, focusing on plant water relations, grape technological and phenolic maturity, and the antioxidant capacity of the must.<br><br>METHODS: The study was conducted on fruit-bearing cuttings grown in pots in temperature-gradient greenhouses. A two-factorial design was established where two temperature regimes, ambient and elevated (ambient + 4 &#xb0;C), were combined with two water regimes, full irrigation and post-veraison deficit irrigation, during fruit ripening.<br><br>RESULTS: There were significant differences among the ancient varieties regarding plant water relations and fruit quality.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This research underlines the importance of evaluating the behavior of ancient grapevine varieties that could offer good options for the adaptation of viticulture to future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36365329, year = {2022}, author = {Loo, WT and Chua, KO and Mazumdar, P and Cheng, A and Osman, N and Harikrishna, JA}, title = {Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Symbiosis: A Strategy for Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Legume Crops.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {36365329}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {IIRG002C-2020FNW//University of Malaya Impact-Oriented Interdisciplinary Research Grant Programme/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to have severe impacts on food security in the topics as these regions of the world have both the highest human populations and narrower climatic niches, which reduce the diversity of suitable crops. Legume crops are of particular importance to food security, supplying dietary protein for humans both directly and in their use for feed and forage. Other than the rhizobia associated with legumes, soil microbes, in particular arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), can mitigate the effects of biotic and abiotic stresses, offering an important complementary measure to protect crop yields. This review presents current knowledge on AMF, highlights their beneficial role, and explores the potential for application of AMF in mitigating abiotic and biotic challenges for tropical legumes. Due to the relatively little study on tropical legume species compared to their temperate growing counterparts, much further research is needed to determine how similar AMF-plant interactions are in tropical legumes, which AMF species are optimal for agricultural deployment and especially to identify anaerobic AMF species that could be used to mitigate flood stress in tropical legume crop farming. These opportunities for research also require international cooperation and support, to realize the promise of tropical legume crops to contribute to future food security.}, }
@article {pmid36361388, year = {2022}, author = {Yang, T and Huang, X and Wang, Y and Li, H and Guo, L}, title = {Dynamic Linkages among Climate Change, Mechanization and Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Rural China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {36361388}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Agriculture/methods ; Fertilizers ; China ; }, abstract = {Climate change has become a major environmental issue facing all countries, having a significant effect on all aspects of agricultural production, such as the agricultural mechanization process and fertilizer use. Greenhouse gases produced by agricultural machinery and fertilizers during agricultural production are an important cause of climate change. On the basis of the above facts, researching the connection between agricultural mechanization, climate change, and agricultural carbon emissions is crucial for the development of low-carbon agriculture and for addressing climate change. We used a variety of econometric models and methods to analyze data from China's multiple provinces (cities) covering the years 2000 through 2019, in order to meet the research objectives. Furthermore, we utilized rainfall and sunlight as variables to assess climate change and adopted Granger tests to establish the link between rainfall, sunlight, agricultural mechanization, and carbon emissions in farming. The findings indicate a bidirectional causality relationship between rainfall, sunlight, agricultural mechanization, and carbon emissions in farming. Rainfall and sunlight are Granger causes of agricultural mechanization. Furthermore, agricultural mechanization has favorable effects on carbon emissions of agriculture, and climate change has long-term implications on agricultural mechanization and carbon emissions of agriculture. Finally, this paper investigated the green path suitable for the low-carbon development of Chinese agriculture, arguing that the government should formulate low-carbon agricultural policies by region and actively promote the upgrading of agricultural machinery.}, }
@article {pmid36361268, year = {2022}, author = {Ding, C and Xia, Y and Su, Y and Li, F and Xiong, C and Xu, J}, title = {Study on the Impact of Climate Change on China's Import Trade of Major Agricultural Products and Adaptation Strategies.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {36361268}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Commerce ; Internationality ; Agriculture ; Crops, Agricultural ; China ; }, abstract = {With global warming, China's agricultural products are facing severe production conditions and a complex international trade situation. In order to clarify the relationship between climate change and China's agricultural trade, this paper uses the GTAP model to explore the impact of climate change on China's agricultural trade from the perspectives of agricultural production and supply, energy substitution and trade policy. The results show that: (1) From the overall effect, the production supply risk and energy substitution risk caused by climate change have a positive impact on China's import trade, among which the energy substitution risk has brought about an import trade growth of 38.050%, the production supply risk has brought about an import trade growth of 12.635%, and the trade policy risk has a negative impact, bringing about an import trade decline of 12.589%. (2) Under the impact of production and supply risks caused by climate change, the import volume of different industrial sectors has increased by varying degrees, including livestock products (16.521%) > food crops (14.162%) > cash crops (7.220%). The increase in import trade mainly comes from the United States (10.731%), Canada (10.650%) and Australia (9.455%). (3) Under the impact of energy substitution risk caused by climate change, the increase in import trade was concentrated in food crops (48.144%) and livestock products (42.834%), mainly from the United States (57.098%), the European Union (55.014%) and Canada (53.508%). (4) Under the impact of trade policy risks caused by climate change, the import trade of different industrial sectors showed a downward trend, with cash crops (13.039%) > livestock products (12.588%) > cash crops (12.140%). The countries and regions with significant decline in import trade were ASEAN (-46.131%) and the United States (-28.028%). The trade deficit shifted to surplus, and the terms of trade were improved. Therefore, this paper suggests that we should deal with the impact of climate change on agricultural trade by developing "climate smart" agriculture, actively responding to low-carbon trade measures, and establishing an agricultural trade promotion mechanism to address the risk of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36360623, year = {2022}, author = {Meier, BM and Bustreo, F and Gostin, LO}, title = {Climate Change, Public Health and Human Rights.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {36360623}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; Human Rights ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a cataclysmic threat to public health and human rights [...].}, }
@article {pmid36360072, year = {2022}, author = {Li, Y and Roy, A and Dong, X}, title = {An Equality-Based Approach to Analysing the Global Food System's Fair Share, Overshoot, and Responsibility for Exceeding the Climate Change Planetary Boundary.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {36360072}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {41901222 and 42171149//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {The climate catastrophe is being caused by human effects on earth system processes that are surpassing several planetary boundaries. This crisis is driven significantly by the global food system. It has been increasing over recent years, yet food systems are essential in upholding food and nutrition security. This study proposed a novel method for enumerating national contributions to the cessation of the climate crisis by approximating nations’ aggregate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from food systems, within the equitable and sustainable planetary boundaries of climate change. This study included 221 nations, which were grouped as per their human development index (HDI) categories, income groups, and continental locations. During 1990−2018, the annual fair share, overshoot of emissions, and collective historical responsibility in the world of each country were assessed. There was a 22.52% increase in overshooting of GHG emissions from the global food system, starting in 1990. A group of 15 countries, including Brazil, China, Indonesia, and the U.S.A., were responsible for >67% of global overshoot. The primary liability is borne by countries with upper-, middle-, and high-income economies, and high to very-high HDI groups, as well as Asia and South America. Countries such as India, China, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and others have steadily increased their share of responsibility over the last 28 years. More than 76% of countries in the world, mostly from Africa, Europe, and Asia, proved to be absolute overshooters. After contextualising the study’s findings, the global food system’s decarbonization and its limits were discussed; some recommendations for prospective research were also offered. It appears that academics, governments, and policymakers should start concentrating more on reshaping and redesigning the global food system to be climate-friendly (i.e., a carbon-neutral food system), whilst being able to fairly allocate food and nutrition security to achieve long-term Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2).}, }
@article {pmid36359615, year = {2022}, author = {Pereira, MTRM and Carvalho, M and Mady, CEK}, title = {Adressing Energy Demand and Climate Change through the Second Law of Thermodynamics and LCA towards a Rational Use of Energy in Brazilian Households.}, journal = {Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {36359615}, issn = {1099-4300}, support = {309452/2021-0//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; 307405/2021-4//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; 304395/2018-8//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; 400401/2016-9//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; PIBIC//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; 2015/22883-7//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {This study focuses on a typical Brazilian household through the lens of sustainable development, regarding energy demand and GHG emissions. The analysis encompasses both the direct and indirect energy, exergy consumption, and GHG emissions (quantified by life cycle assessment) associated with the usual routine of a household. The household is modeled as a thermodynamic system to evaluate inputs (food, electricity, fuels for transportation) and outputs (solid and liquid residues). The hypothesis is that each input and output contains CO2,eq emissions and exergy derived from its physical-chemical characteristics or production chains. Each household appliance is modeled and tested as a function of external parameters. The contribution of several industries was obtained to the total GHG emissions and exergy flows entering and exiting the household (e.g., fuels for transportation, food, gas, electricity, wastewater treatment, solid waste). It was verified that urban transportation was the flow with the highest GHG and exergy intensity, ranging between 1.49 and 7.53 kgCO2,eq/day and achieving 94.7 MJ/day, almost five times higher than the calculated exergy demand due to electricity. The second largest flow in GHG emissions was food due to the characteristics of the production chains, ranging from 1.6 to 4.75 kgCO2,eq/day, depending on the adopted diet. On the other hand, the electricity presented low GHG emissions due to the main energy sources used to generate electricity, only 0.52 kgCO2,eq/day. Moreover, the chemical exergy of the solid waste was 9.7 MJ/day, and is not irrelevant compared to the other flows, representing an interesting improvement opportunity as it is entirely wasted in the baseline scenario.}, }
@article {pmid36358329, year = {2022}, author = {Ma, J and Guo, Y and Gao, J and Tang, H and Xu, K and Liu, Q and Xu, L}, title = {Climate Change Drives the Transmission and Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: An Ecological Perspective.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {36358329}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {72091514//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; L2124008//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2022BH009//Postdoc funding of Vanke School of Public Health in Tsinghua University/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects ecosystems and human health in multiple dimensions. With the acceleration of climate change, climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose an increasing threat to public health. This paper summaries 10 publications on the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and human health; then it synthesizes the other existing literature to more broadly explain how climate change drives the transmission and spread of VBDs through an ecological perspective. We highlight the multi-dimensional nature of climate change, its interaction with other factors, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on transmission and spread of VBDs, specifically including: (1) the generally nonlinear relationship of local climate (temperature, precipitation and wind) and VBD transmission, with temperature especially exhibiting an n-shape relation; (2) the time-lagged effect of regional climate phenomena (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation) on VBD transmission; (3) the u-shaped effect of extreme climate (heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts) on VBD spread; (4) how interactions between non-climatic (land use and human mobility) and climatic factors increase VBD transmission and spread; and (5) that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change is debatable, and its impact on VBDs remains uncertain. By exploring the influence of climate change and non-climatic factors on VBD transmission and spread, this paper provides scientific understanding and guidance for their effective prevention and control.}, }
@article {pmid36357262, year = {2023}, author = {Quinlan, D}, title = {Climate change and the voice of healthcare professionals.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {160-162}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2022.10.008}, pmid = {36357262}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; }, }
@article {pmid36356745, year = {2023}, author = {Sulukan, E and Baran, A and Şenol, O and Kankaynar, M and Yıldırım, S and Bolat, &#x130; and Ceyhun, HA and Toraman, E and Ceyhun, SB}, title = {Global warming and glyphosate toxicity (I): Adult zebrafish modelling with behavioural, immunohistochemical and metabolomic approaches.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {858}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {160086}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160086}, pmid = {36356745}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Zebrafish ; *Metabolomics ; }, abstract = {Global warming further increases the toxic threat of environmental pollutants on organisms. In order to reveal the dimensions of this threat more clearly, it is of great importance that the studies be carried out with temperature differences as close as possible to the temperature values that will represent the global climate projection. In our study, how the toxicity of glyphosate, which is widely used around the world, on zebrafish changes with temperature increases of 0.5° was investigated on behavioral and molecular basis. For this purpose, adult zebrafish were exposed to glyphosate at concentrations of 1 ppm and 5 ppm for 96 h in four environments with a temperature difference of 0.5° (28.5; 29.0; 29.5; 30.0 °C). At the end of the exposure, half of the zebrafish were sampled and remaining half were left for a 10-day recovery process. At the end of the trials, zebrafish were subjected to circadian rhythm and anxiety tests. In addition, histopathological, immunohistochemical and metabolome analyses were performed on brain tissues. As a result, it has been detected that anxiety and circadian rhythm were disrupted in parallel with the increased temperature and glyphosate concentration, and increased histopathological findings and 5-HT4R and GNAT2 immunopositivity in the brain. As a result of metabolome analysis, more than thirty annotated metabolites have been determined due to the synergistic effect of temperature increase and glyphosate exposure. As a conclusion, it was concluded that even a temperature increase of 0.5° caused an increasing effect of glyphosate toxicity in the zebrafish model.}, }
@article {pmid36356083, year = {2022}, author = {Tiwari, S and Dhakal, T and Kim, TS and Lee, DH and Jang, GS and Oh, Y}, title = {Climate Change Influences the Spread of African Swine Fever Virus.}, journal = {Veterinary sciences}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {36356083}, issn = {2306-7381}, abstract = {Climate change is an inevitable and urgent issue in the current world. African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a re-emerging viral animal disease. This study investigates the quantitative association between climate change and the potential spread of ASFV to a global extent. ASFV in wild boar outbreak locations recorded from 1 January 2019 to 29 July 2022 were sampled and investigated using the ecological distribution tool, the Maxent model, with WorldClim bioclimatic data as the predictor variables. The future impacts of climate change on ASFV distribution based on the model were scoped with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) bioclimatic data for 2050 and 2070. The results show that precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the highest contributor, and annual mean temperature (Bio1) was obtained as the highest permutation importance variable on the spread of ASFV. Based on the analyzed scenarios, we found that the future climate is favourable for ASFV disease; only quantitative ratios are different and directly associated with climate change. The current study could be a reference material for wildlife health management, climate change issues, and World Health Organization sustainability goal 13: climate action.}, }
@article {pmid36354805, year = {2022}, author = {Yan, XR and Wang, ZY and Feng, SQ and Zhao, ZH and Li, ZH}, title = {Impact of Temperature Change on the Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {36354805}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {CARS-02//China Agriculture Research System of MOF and MARA/ ; }, abstract = {The fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith, 1797), known as an important agricultural pest around the world, is indigenous to the tropical-subtropical regions in the Western Hemisphere, although its distribution has expanded over large parts of America, Africa, Asia and Oceania in the last few years. The pest causes considerable costs annually coupled with its strong invasion propensity. Temperature is identified as the dominant abiotic factor affecting herbivorous insects. Several efforts have reported that temperature directly or indirectly influences the geographic distribution, phenology and natural enemies of the poikilothermal FAW, and thus may affect the damage to crops, e.g., the increased developmental rate accelerates the intake of crops at higher temperatures. Under some extreme temperatures, the FAW is likely to regulate various genes expression in response to environmental changes, which causes a wider viability and possibility of invasion threat. Therefore, this paper seeks to review and critically consider the variations of developmental indicators, the relationships between the FAW and its natural enemies and the temperature tolerance throughout its developmental stage at varying levels of heat/cold stress. Based on this, we discuss more environmentally friendly and economical control measures, we put forward future challenges facing climate change, we further offer statistical basics and instrumental guidance significance for informing FAW pest forecasting, risk analyses and a comprehensive management program for effective control globally.}, }
@article {pmid36354045, year = {2022}, author = {Cai, W and Zhang, C and Zhang, S and Bai, Y and Callaghan, M and Chang, N and Chen, B and Chen, H and Cheng, L and Cui, X and Dai, H and Danna, B and Dong, W and Fan, W and Fang, X and Gao, T and Geng, Y and Guan, D and Hu, Y and Hua, J and Huang, C and Huang, H and Huang, J and Jiang, L and Jiang, Q and Jiang, X and Jin, H and Kiesewetter, G and Liang, L and Lin, B and Lin, H and Liu, H and Liu, Q and Liu, T and Liu, X and Liu, X and Liu, Z and Liu, Z and Lou, S and Lu, C and Luo, Z and Meng, W and Miao, H and Ren, C and Romanello, M and Schöpp, W and Su, J and Tang, X and Wang, C and Wang, Q and Warnecke, L and Wen, S and Winiwarter, W and Xie, Y and Xu, B and Yan, Y and Yang, X and Yao, F and Yu, L and Yuan, J and Zeng, Y and Zhang, J and Zhang, L and Zhang, R and Zhang, S and Zhang, S and Zhao, Q and Zheng, D and Zhou, H and Zhou, J and Fung, MFC and Luo, Y and Gong, P}, title = {The 2022 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: leveraging climate actions for healthy ageing.}, journal = {The Lancet. Public health}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {e1073-e1090}, pmid = {36354045}, issn = {2468-2667}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Healthy Aging ; Global Health ; Health Policy ; China ; }, }
@article {pmid36353273, year = {2022}, author = {Liu, I and Rabin, B and Manivannan, M and Laney, E and Philipsborn, R}, title = {Evaluating strengths and opportunities for a co-created climate change curriculum: Medical student perspectives.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1021125}, pmid = {36353273}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; *Students, Medical ; Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Universities ; Focus Groups ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Medical trainees are front-line workers in our worsening climate and health crisis. A movement is underway to teach medical students essential climate change and health content. Few evaluations of climate and health curricula exist to support ongoing curricular development, innovation, and improvement. This study explores student perspectives on climate change and health content and delivery post-implementation of a climate change and health curriculum that was co-created by students and faculty and integrated across 16 months of pre-clinical coursework at Emory University School of Medicine.<br><br>METHODS: The authors conducted focus groups with the inaugural cohort of students to receive the climate and health education content at the conclusion of their preclinical curriculum. The focus groups elicited student perspectives across four domains: (i) prior perceptions of climate change and health, (ii) current attitudes about climate change and health, (iii) reflections on the existing curriculum, and (iv) opportunities for the curriculum. In this qualitative evaluation, the authors coded focus group transcripts using an inductive content analysis approach.<br><br>RESULTS: Out of 137 eligible students in the cohort, 13 (9.5%) participated in the focus groups. Implementation strategies that students valued included contextualization and integration of climate content within existing topics and student representation through the co-creation process. Students recommended bolstering small group sessions and case-based learning to build relevant history and physical examination skills as well as creating interprofessional and community-based opportunities.<br><br>DISCUSSION: This evaluation offers in-depth student perspectives of our climate and health curriculum. Opportunities exist to synergize climate and health education with broader transformations in medicine toward health promotion and sustainable, climate-ready healthcare. From the input of focus groups, the authors derive a framework for strengthening and extending curricular content.}, }
@article {pmid36352544, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Indian journal of medical ethics}, volume = {VIII}, number = {1}, pages = {7-9}, doi = {10.20529/IJME.2022.083}, pmid = {36352544}, issn = {0975-5691}, mesh = {Humans ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Temperature ; Africa ; }, abstract = {The 2022 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) paints a dark picture of the future of life on earth, characterised by ecosystem collapse, species extinction, and climate hazards such as heatwaves and floods [1]. These are all linked to physical and mental health problems, with direct and indirect consequences of increased morbidity and mortality. To avoid these catastrophic health effects across all regions of the globe, there is broad agreement - as 231 health journals argued together in 2021 - that the rise in global temperature must be limited to less than 1.5oC compared with pre-industrial levels.}, }
@article {pmid36352025, year = {2023}, author = {Jansson, JK and Wu, R}, title = {Soil viral diversity, ecology and climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {21}, number = {5}, pages = {296-311}, pmid = {36352025}, issn = {1740-1534}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Soil ; Climate Change ; Ecology ; Soil Microbiology ; *Viruses ; }, abstract = {Soil viruses are highly abundant and have important roles in the regulation of host dynamics and soil ecology. Climate change is resulting in unprecedented changes to soil ecosystems and the life forms that reside there, including viruses. In this Review, we explore our current understanding of soil viral diversity and ecology, and we discuss how climate change (such as extended and extreme drought events or more flooding and altered precipitation patterns) is influencing soil viruses. Finally, we provide our perspective on future research needs to better understand how climate change will impact soil viral ecology.}, }
@article {pmid36351898, year = {2022}, author = {Parker, CL and Mooney, PA and Webster, MA and Boisvert, LN}, title = {The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {6514}, pmid = {36351898}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Ecosystem ; Arctic Regions ; Ice Cover ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.}, }
@article {pmid36351882, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 climate change conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {79}, number = {1}, pages = {e4-e6}, doi = {10.1111/jan.15466}, pmid = {36351882}, issn = {1365-2648}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36351692, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o2702}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2702}, pmid = {36351692}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid36351682, year = {2022}, author = {Slater, M and Bartlett, S}, title = {10 things a doctor can do to combat climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o2650}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2650}, pmid = {36351682}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Physicians ; }, }
@article {pmid36351461, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Mohammad, SY and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibe, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine}, volume = {115}, number = {10}, pages = {380-383}, pmid = {36351461}, issn = {1758-1095}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36349470, year = {2023}, author = {Liang, Y and Gustafson, EJ and He, HS and Serra-Diaz, JM and Duveneck, MJ and Thompson, JR}, title = {What is the role of disturbance in catalyzing spatial shifts in forest composition and tree species biomass under climate change?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {1160-1177}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16517}, pmid = {36349470}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {IAEMP202201//Major Program of Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 31961133027//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 31971486//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; NSF-DEB 12-37491//the National Science Foundation Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research Program/ ; XLYC1907177//Top-notch young talents project of Liaoning Province "Xing Liao Talents" Project/ ; }, mesh = {*Trees ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; New England ; }, abstract = {Mounting evidence suggests that climate change will cause shifts of tree species range and abundance (biomass). Abundance changes under climate change are likely to occur prior to a detectable range shift. Disturbances are expected to directly affect tree species abundance and composition, and could profoundly influence tree species spatial distribution within a geographical region. However, how multiple disturbance regimes will interact with changing climate to alter the spatial distribution of species abundance remains unclear. We simulated such forest demographic processes using a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) parameterized with forest inventory data in the northeastern United States. Our study incorporated climate change under a high-emission future and disturbance regimes varying with gradients of intensities and spatial extents. The results suggest that disturbances catalyze changes in tree species abundance and composition under a changing climate, but the effects of disturbances differ by intensity and extent. Moderate disturbances and large extent disturbances have limited effects, while high-intensity disturbances accelerate changes by removing cohorts of mid- and late-successional species, creating opportunities for early-successional species. High-intensity disturbances result in the northern movement of early-successional species and the southern movement of late-successional species abundances. Our study is among the first to systematically investigate how disturbance extent and intensity interact to determine the spatial distribution of changes in species abundance and forest composition.}, }
@article {pmid36347530, year = {2022}, author = {Mulcahy, E}, title = {UK Health Alliance on Climate Change brings health professionals together to call for action.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o2649}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2649}, pmid = {36347530}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Insurance Pools ; Health Personnel ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid36347284, year = {2023}, author = {Chowdhury, S}, title = {Threatened species could be more vulnerable to climate change in tropical countries.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {858}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {159989}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159989}, pmid = {36347284}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Endangered Species ; *Butterflies ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat impacting insects globally, yet the impact on tropical insects is largely unknown. Here, I assessed the climatic vulnerability of Bangladeshi butterflies (242 species). About 42 % of species could experience range contraction, and the impact could be significantly more severe among threatened species. Depending on Socio-Economic Pathways (ssps), the future climatic condition could be unsuitable for 2 (ssp126) - 34 % (ssp585) species. The mean elevation of the suitable habitat could increase by 238 %, and the situation could be more severe for the threatened butterflies. Further, 54 % of the realised niche of butterflies could be altered. Although there might be no significant association between the shift in habitat suitability along the elevational gradient, migratory species could experience a more significant shift than non-migrants. Overall, climate change could have a severe impact on Bangladeshi butterflies. To mitigate insect decline globally and meet the Post 2020 Biodiversity Framework targets, immediate detection of climate change impact on tropical insects and developing effective conservation strategies is essential.}, }
@article {pmid36344684, year = {2022}, author = {Naddaf, M}, title = {Climate change is costing trillions - and low-income countries are paying the price.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {36344684}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid36344619, year = {2022}, author = {Jones, N}, title = {Using hyrax latrines to investigate climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {611}, number = {7935}, pages = {418}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-03587-7}, pmid = {36344619}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Hyraxes/urine ; *Feces/chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid36344194, year = {2022}, author = {Klemm, K and Cembella, A and Clarke, D and Cusack, C and Arneborg, L and Karlson, B and Liu, Y and Naustvoll, L and Siano, R and Gran-Stadniczeñko, S and John, U}, title = {Apparent biogeographical trends in Alexandrium blooms for northern Europe: identifying links to climate change and effective adaptive actions.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {119}, number = {}, pages = {102335}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2022.102335}, pmid = {36344194}, issn = {1878-1470}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Dinoflagellida ; Harmful Algal Bloom ; Salinity ; }, abstract = {The marine dinoflagellate Alexandrium Halim represents perhaps the most significant and intensively studied genus with respect to species diversity, life history strategies, toxigenicity, biogeographical distribution, and global magnitude and consequences harmful algal blooms (HABs). The socioeconomic impacts, environmental and human health risks, and mitigation strategies for toxigenic Alexandrium blooms have also been explored in recent years. Human adaptive actions based on future scenarios of bloom dynamics and shifts in biogeographical distribution under climate-change parameters remain under development and not yet implemented on a regional scale. In the CoCliME (Co-development of climate services for adaptation to changing marine ecosystems) project these issues were addressed with respect to past, current and anticipated future status of key HAB genera and expected benefits of enhanced monitoring. Data on the distribution and frequency of Alexandrium blooms related to paralytic shellfish toxin (PST) events from key CoCliME Case Study areas, comprising the North Sea and adjacent Kattegat-Skagerrak, Norwegian Sea, and Baltic Sea, and eastern North Atlantic marginal seas, were evaluated in a contemporary and historical context over the past several decades. The first evidence of possible biogeographical expansion of Alexandrium taxa into eastern Arctic gateways was provided from DNA barcoding signatures. Various key climate change indicators, such as salinity, temperature, and water-column stratification, relevant to Alexandrium bloom initiation and development were identified. The possible influence of changing variables on bloom dynamics, magnitude, frequency and spatial and temporal distribution were interpreted in the context of regional ocean climate models. These climate change impact indicators may play key roles in selecting for the occurrence and diversity of Alexandrium species within the broader microeukaryote communities. For example, shifts to higher temperature and lower salinity regimes predicted for the southern North Sea indicate the potential for increased Alexandrium blooms, currently absent from this area. Ecological and socioeconomic impacts of Alexandrium blooms and effects on fisheries and aquaculture resources and coastal ecosystem function are evaluated, and, where feasible, effective adaptation strategies are proposed herein as emerging climate services.}, }
@article {pmid36343828, year = {2023}, author = {He, L and Guo, J and Yang, W and Jiang, Q and Chen, L and Tang, K}, title = {Multifaceted responses of vegetation to average and extreme climate change over global drylands.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {858}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {159942}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159942}, pmid = {36343828}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plants ; Temperature ; Weather ; China ; }, abstract = {Average climatic events describe the occurrence of weather or climate at an average value, whereas extreme events are defined as events that exceed the upper or lower threshold value of statistical or observational average climatic events. This study investigated the impacts of both average climate change (ACC) (i.e., average precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) and extreme climate change (ECC) (i.e., five precipitation and five temperature extremes) on dryland vegetation based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatial divergences of ACC and ECC in affecting changes in NDVI over drylands were determined using the geographical detector model. In this study, the growth of vegetation in 40.29 % of global drylands was driven by average precipitation and this dominant effect also occurred in all the plant species, particularly shrubs. However, the sensitivity of grassland to average precipitation exceeded that of most of the woody vegetation. The average temperature and PET controlled 28.64 % and 31.07 % of the changes in NDVI, respectively. Precipitation extremes (except for consecutive dry days and consecutive wet days) and warm temperature extremes (WTE) had positive influences on dryland vegetation, and the effect of WTE on NDVI exceeded that of the remaining temperature extremes. Temperature extremes exerted more significant effects than precipitation extremes for changes in the grassland NDVI. In contrast, the variations in shrub NDVI were primarily dominated by precipitation extremes. We also found that the impacts of parts of average and extreme climatic factors on vegetation had changed over time. Furthermore, temperature extremes had far exceeded the average temperature in affecting vegetation growth at the spatial scale, and this action gradually intensified from 1982 to 2015. The influences of all precipitation extremes were weaker than those of the average precipitation. Those can offer scientific references for ecosystem protection in drylands.}, }
@article {pmid36343709, year = {2023}, author = {Guihenneuc, J and Ayraud-Thevenot, S and Roschnik, S and Dupuis, A and Migeot, V}, title = {Climate change and health care facilities: A risk analysis framework through a mapping review.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {216}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {114709}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.114709}, pmid = {36343709}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Floods ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Risk Assessment ; Delivery of Health Care ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change (CC) has been identified as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Although health care facilities (HCF) play a central role in the care of populations, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the impact of CC on HCF. The objective of our study was to highlight the components of HCFs affected by CC through a mapping review of the literature.<br><br>METHODS: To meet our objective, we first assessed the place of HCFs in relation to CC in the scientific literature and in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. Bibliometric data from the PubMed database were analyzed between 1979 and 2021 to assess the penetration of keywords on CC alone, and in relation to health and HCF in particular. Second, we analyzed the changes in HCF keywords in the IPCC reports. Finally, we conducted a mapping review in five databases, of the international scientific literature published between 1979 and 2019, and identified the components of HCF affected by CC using the Ishikawa diagram.<br><br>RESULTS: From the 2000s, the number of publications on CC and HCF increased gradually with 137 articles in 2005, and even more sharply since 2008 with 358 articles published and 813 in 2021. Even though CC is only recently present in the biomedical literature, all climatic events (warming and heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, storms, hurricanes and cyclones, floods and sea-level rise, and other indirect effects) have had an impact on at least one component of HCF.<br><br>CONCLUSION: HCFs are already impacted, in all their components, by CC. By enhancing our understanding of the impacts of CC on HCF, this work could contribute to the engagement of health professionals in the implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions, thereby limiting the consequences of CC on patient care.}, }
@article {pmid36343651, year = {2023}, author = {Deivanayagam, TA and Selvarajah, S and Hickel, J and Guinto, RR and de Morais Sato, P and Bonifacio, J and English, S and Huq, M and Issa, R and Mulindwa, H and Nagginda, HP and Sharma, C and Devakumar, D}, title = {Climate change, health, and discrimination: action towards racial justice.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {401}, number = {10370}, pages = {5-7}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(22)02182-1}, pmid = {36343651}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Racism ; Racial Groups ; Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid36343650, year = {2022}, author = {Woychik, RP and Bianchi, DW and Gibbons, GH and Glass, RI and Gordon, JA and Pérez-Stable, EJ and Zenk, SN}, title = {The NIH Climate Change and Health Initiative and Strategic Framework: addressing the threat of climate change to health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {400}, number = {10366}, pages = {1831-1833}, pmid = {36343650}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {Z99 HD999999/ImNIH/Intramural NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid36343569, year = {2022}, author = {Sun, GQ and Li, L and Li, J and Liu, C and Wu, YP and Gao, S and Wang, Z and Feng, GL}, title = {Impacts of climate change on vegetation pattern: Mathematical modeling and data analysis.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {43}, number = {}, pages = {239-270}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2022.09.005}, pmid = {36343569}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Data Analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; Biodiversity ; China ; }, abstract = {Climate change has become increasingly severe, threatening ecosystem stability and, in particular, biodiversity. As a typical indicator of ecosystem evolution, vegetation growth is inevitably affected by climate change, and therefore has a great potential to provide valuable information for addressing such ecosystem problems. However, the impacts of climate change on vegetation growth, especially the spatial and temporal distribution of vegetation, are still lacking of comprehensive exposition. To this end, this review systematically reveals the influences of climate change on vegetation dynamics in both time and space by dynamical modeling the interactions of meteorological elements and vegetation growth. Moreover, we characterize the long-term evolution trend of vegetation growth under climate change in some typical regions based on data analysis. This work is expected to lay a necessary foundation for systematically revealing the coupling effect of climate change on the ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid36343229, year = {2022}, author = {Bunbury, MME and Petchey, F and Bickler, SH}, title = {A new chronology for the Māori settlement of Aotearoa (NZ) and the potential role of climate change in demographic developments.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {46}, pages = {e2207609119}, pmid = {36343229}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ; New Zealand ; Population Growth ; Anthropology ; }, abstract = {Understanding the role of climate change, resource availability, and population growth in human mobility remains critically important in anthropology. Researching linkages between climate and demographic changes during the short settlement history of Aotearoa (New Zealand) requires temporal precision equivalent to the period of a single generation. However, current modeling approaches frequently use small terrestrial radiocarbon datasets, a practice that obscures past Māori population patterns and their connection to changing climate. Our systematic analysis of terrestrial and marine [14]C ages has enabled robust assessments of the largest dataset yet collated from island contexts. This analysis has been made possible by the recent development of a temporal marine correction for southern Pacific waters, and our findings show the shortcomings of previous models. We demonstrate that human settlement in the mid to late 13th century AD is unambiguous. We highlight initial (AD 1250 to 1275) settlement in the North Island. The South Island was reached a decade later (AD 1280 to 1295), where the hunting of giant flightless moa commenced (AD 1300 to 1415), and the population grew rapidly. Population growth leveled off around AD 1340 and declined between AD 1380 and 1420, synchronous with the onset of the Little Ice Age and moa loss as an essential food source. The population continued to grow in the more economically stable north, where conditions for horticulture were optimal. The enhanced precision of this research afforded by the robust analysis of marine dates opens up unique opportunities to investigate interconnectivity in Polynesia and inform the patterns seen in other island contexts.}, }
@article {pmid36342549, year = {2022}, author = {Akudo, EO and Otaru, PO}, title = {The influence of climate change on freshwater availability in the Sokoto Rima River Basin, Northwestern Nigeria.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {1}, pages = {82}, pmid = {36342549}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Humans ; *Rivers ; *Climate Change ; Dehydration ; Nigeria ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; }, abstract = {This research entailed the acquisition of long-term (1980-2020) meteorological data (rainfall, temperature, and runoff) which was used to compute the values for the mean annual, monthly, and seasonal hydro-climate variables to establish their trend and behavior. To substantiate if the patterns of runoff are in any way due to the changing climate, the meteorological data were subjected to non-parametric tests-Mann-Kendall (MK), Sen's slope estimator, Kendall tau, and partial correlation. MK trend test for runoff, rainfall, and temperature (on an annual and seasonal basis) revealed significant trends on an annual scale. Nevertheless, rainfall data did not exhibit any, observable trend on a seasonal scale. On both annual and seasonal scales, temperature values showed increasing trends. In the entire period considered (1980-2020), runoff also exhibited a remarkable increase in trend. Sen's estimator values ranged from - 0.04 to 3.23. The results of the Kendall tau correlation showed that runoff is positively correlated to rainfall (tau = 0.222), with a high confidence level (95%). Again, the partial correlation analysis of runoff and climatic variables for annual and seasonal timescale, results show that the runoff is significantly (rxy.z = 0.315) affected by both rainfall and temperature. It is therefore recommended that future research should utilize robust input-output models to determine the amount of water stress in the basin. As a sustainable management approach, artificial surface water reservoirs should be constructed to complement the available water from the Sokoto-Rima river and alleviate the water stress experienced by the population.}, }
@article {pmid36341849, year = {2023}, author = {Biguino, B and Haigh, ID and Dias, JM and Brito, AC}, title = {Climate change in estuarine systems: Patterns and gaps using a meta-analysis approach.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {858}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {159742}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159742}, pmid = {36341849}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Estuaries ; Temperature ; Observational Studies as Topic ; }, abstract = {Although regional studies and projections suggest the deterioration of estuaries as a consequence of climate change, it is still difficult to fully understand the importance of such changes in estuarine systems. This limitation is particularly important considering their high dynamism and the lack of temporally extended in situ databases with a good spatial coverage for these systems worldwide. Furthermore, contradictory patterns have been observed across the globe. Motivated by these issues, in this study we question the availability of in situ observational evidence of climate change in estuarine systems through a detailed meta-analysis of existing publications. A topic-related search considering the outputs of the Web of Science library was conducted in order to obtain a characterization of the existing studies on climate change in estuarine systems. Results confirmed that climate change has increasingly been studied since 2000 and that marine climate change constituted the focus of 9.69 % of those studies. From these, only 9.30 % encompassed estuarine studies and just 1.13 % used in situ observations from estuarine systems (i.e., 0.11 % of the total climate change publications). Reanalysis products were the most used tools to assess changes in estuarine systems and sea temperature was the most analyzed variable. These results highlight the need to further address such questions using in situ observational data and to implement long-term observatories to fully identify evidence of climate change in estuarine systems, supporting modelling approaches and promoting the development of effective mitigation plans.}, }
@article {pmid36341795, year = {2023}, author = {Mirón, IJ and Linares, C and Díaz, J}, title = {The influence of climate change on food production and food safety.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {216}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {114674}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.114674}, pmid = {36341795}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Food Safety ; *Foodborne Diseases ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Food security and food safety are two concepts related to food risks. The majority of studies regarding climate change and food risks are related to the security of food provision. The objective of this study was to review the current state of knowledge of the influence of climate change on food production and food safety. The literature search was carried out by specifying each area individually (crops, ranching, fishing, food safety, etc.), including the term "climate change" and other specific factors such as CO2, ozone, biotoxins, mortality, heat, etc.) The increase in carbon dioxide concentrations together with the increase in global temperatures theoretically produces greater yields in crops destined for human and animal consumption. However, the majority of studies have shown that crop yields are decreasing, due to the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. Furthermore, these climate anomalies are irregularly distributed, with a greater impact on developing countries that have a lower capacity to address climate change. All of these factors result in greater uncertainty in terms of food provision and market speculation. An increase in average temperatures could lead to an increased risk of proliferation of micro-organisms that produce food-borne illnesses, such as salmonella and campylobacter. However, in developed countries with information systems that document the occurrence of these diseases over time, no clear trend has been determined, in part because of extensive food conservation controls.}, }
@article {pmid36341277, year = {2022}, author = {Maganga, T and Conrad Suso, C}, title = {The impact of colonial and contemporary land policies on climate change adaptation in Zimbabwe's communal areas.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1311}, pmid = {36341277}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The main aim of this article was to examine the impact of colonial and contemporary development policies on climate change adaptation among communal farmers in Zimbabwe. As such, the objective was to document and better understand how the legacy of colonialism, coupled with the current climate change impacts is making adaptation a serious challenge for farmers in particular regions of the country. This study was conducted in Zimbabwe's Buhera Rural District (Ward 30) and Chipinge Rural District (Ward 11). Data collection involved the use of individual household interviews, with the use of a snowball sampling method, focus group discussions, key informant interviews and direct observation in the field. It was found that the lack of income diversity opportunities has further exposed several livelihoods to climate change and compromised their abilities to respond and recover under periods of climatic stress. It was ascertained that the adaptation challenges experienced by African farmers were brought about by the colonial land system that evicted them from their customary lands and allocated them land in poor agroecological regions that fail to support production. The authors argue that climate change adaptation challenges in communal areas should be understood from a colonial and historical development perspective that led to the establishment of communal farming zones. There is also a need to understand climate vulnerability in the context of post-independence development strategies that have led to the underdevelopment of peasant agriculture and reduced farmers' ability to adapt to climate change.<br><br>CONTRIBUTION: Climate change adaptation policies should recognise the country's colonial and historical legacy that has led to poverty and other livelihood challenges in communal areas. By acknowledging this, policymakers are better positioned to understand the structural issues making adaptation difficult, and they could intervene by proposing context-specific adaptation strategies that meet the needs of communal farmers.}, }
@article {pmid36341001, year = {2023}, author = {Lee, EY and Kim, YB and Goo, S and Oyama, O and Lee, J and Kim, G and Lim, H and Sung, H and Yoon, J and Hwang, J and Chung, S and Kang, HJ and Kim, JY and Kim, KI and Kim, Y and Lee, MY and Oh, JW and Park, H and Song, W and Yi, K and Kim, YS and Jeon, JY}, title = {Physical activity in the era of climate change and COVID-19 pandemic: Results from the South Korea's 2022 Report Card on physical activity for children and adolescents.}, journal = {Journal of exercise science and fitness}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {26-33}, pmid = {36341001}, issn = {1728-869X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: With intensifying air pollutant levels and the COVID-19 pandemic, physical inactivity of South Korean children and adolescents may be threatened. Therefore, monitoring and surveillance of physical activity (PA) and relevant indicators are important for policy making pertaining to health promotion. Report Card is a third comprehensive evaluation of PA-related behaviors among and the sources of influence for South Korean children and adolescents.<br><br>PURPOSE: To provide the outcome of the South Korea's 2022 Report Card on PA for children and adolescents.<br><br>METHODS: Based on a variety of sources including national surveys collected pre- and during-COVID-19 and information collected from government webpages, 11 indicators were graded by a committee of experts informed by the best available evidence. Data from during-COVID-19 were available for Overall PA, Sedentary Behavior, and Sleep and considered together in generating the overall grades.<br><br>RESULTS: Grades were assigned to behavioral indicators (Overall PA: D-; Active Transportation: B+; Sedentary Behavior: D; Sleep: F) and sources of Influence (Family and Peers: C-; School: A; Community and Environment: B-; Government: A). Organized Sport and PA, Active Play, and Physical Fitness could not be graded due to the lack of data. The results largely indicated that children and adolescents show unfavorable behavioral grades even with favorable grades observed for the sources of influence indicators. Trivial differences were observed pre- and during-pandemic for Overall PA (&#x2265;60&#xa0;min of MVPA for &#x2265;4&#xa0;d/wk: 20.8% vs 19.9%) and Sleep (met age-specific recommendation: 14.1% vs 15.0%); however, a marked increase in Sedentary Behavior was observed (&#x2264;2&#xa0;h/d screen time: 28.8% vs 20.1%). A stark weekday vs weekend difference was observed in sleep duration. In terms of PA related sources of influence, high accessibility to PA facilities (81.1%) and high satisfaction of neighborhood public transit (74.6%) and safety (80.7%) were well reflected in our Active Transportation grade (B+). Nonetheless, perception of green environments including outdoor air quality (44.0%), noise (39.6%) and green space (56.5%) showed lower scores, suggesting that new barriers to active lifestyles are emerging for South Korean children and adolescents. Gender differences were also observed for overall PA (&#x2265;60&#xa0;min of MVPA for &#x2265;4&#xa0;d/wk: 29.1% for boys vs 11.3% for girls) and sleep (met age-specific recommendations: 17.3% for boys vs 11.4% for girls), but not for sedentary behavior (&#x2264;2&#xa0;h/d screen time:&#xa0;26.4% for boys and 24.9% for girls).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Government and school policies/programs and the built environment are, in general, conducive to physically active lifestyles for South Korean children and adolescents; however, behavioural indicators received poor grades except for Active Transportation. A thorough evaluation of policies/programs at government, local, and school levels is needed to ensure that the efforts to have PA-enhancing infrastructure and systems are actually being translated into the behavior of children and adolescents in South Korea. Furthermore, improving PA surveillance, monitoring, and advocacy to ultimately establish healthy lifestyle patterns among children and adolescents is a top priority.}, }
@article {pmid36340816, year = {2022}, author = {Speed, JDM and Evankow, AM and Petersen, TK and Ranke, PS and Nilsen, NH and Turner, G and Aagaard, K and Bakken, T and Davidsen, JG and Dunshea, G and Finstad, AG and Hassel, K and Husby, M and Hårsaker, K and Koksvik, JI and Prestø, T and Vange, V}, title = {A regionally coherent ecological fingerprint of climate change, evidenced from natural history collections.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {e9471}, pmid = {36340816}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change has dramatic impacts on ecological systems, affecting a range of ecological factors including phenology, species abundance, diversity, and distribution. The breadth of climate change impacts on ecological systems leads to the occurrence of fingerprints of climate change. However, climate fingerprints are usually identified across broad geographical scales and are potentially influenced by publication biases. In this study, we used natural history collections spanning over 250 years, to quantify a range of ecological responses to climate change, including phenology, abundance, diversity, and distributions, across a range of taxa, including vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, and fungi, within a single region, Central Norway. We tested the hypotheses that ecological responses to climate change are apparent and coherent at a regional scale, that longer time series show stronger trends over time and in relation to temperature, and that ecological responses change in trajectory at the same time as shifts in temperature. We identified a clear regional coherence in climate signal, with decreasing abundances of limnic zooplankton (on average by 7691 individuals m[-3] °C[-1]) and boreal forest breeding birds (on average by 1.94 territories km[-2] °C[-1]), and earlier plant flowering phenology (on average 2 days °C[-1]) for every degree of temperature increase. In contrast, regional-scale species distributions and species diversity were largely stable. Surprisingly, the effect size of ecological response did not increase with study duration, and shifts in responses did not occur at the same time as shifts in temperature. This may be as the long-term studies include both periods of warming and temperature stability, and that ecological responses lag behind warming. Our findings demonstrate a regional climate fingerprint across a long timescale. We contend that natural history collections provide a unique window on a broad spectrum of ecological responses at timescales beyond most ecological monitoring programs. Natural history collections are thus an essential source for long-term ecological research.}, }
@article {pmid36340395, year = {2022}, author = {Bhupenchandra, I and Chongtham, SK and Devi, EL and R, R and Choudhary, AK and Salam, MD and Sahoo, MR and Bhutia, TL and Devi, SH and Thounaojam, AS and Behera, C and M N, H and Kumar, A and Dasgupta, M and Devi, YP and Singh, D and Bhagowati, S and Devi, CP and Singh, HR and Khaba, CI}, title = {Role of biostimulants in mitigating the effects of climate change on crop performance.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {967665}, pmid = {36340395}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change is a critical yield-limiting factor that has threatened the entire global crop production system in the present scenario. The use of biostimulants in agriculture has shown tremendous potential in combating climate change-induced stresses such as drought, salinity, temperature stress, etc. Biostimulants are organic compounds, microbes, or amalgamation of both that could regulate plant growth behavior through molecular alteration and physiological, biochemical, and anatomical modulations. Their nature is diverse due to the varying composition of bioactive compounds, and they function through various modes of action. To generate a successful biostimulatory action on crops under different parameters, a multi-omics approach would be beneficial to identify or predict its outcome comprehensively. The 'omics' approach has greatly helped us to understand the mode of action of biostimulants on plants at cellular levels. Biostimulants acting as a messenger in signal transduction resembling phytohormones and other chemical compounds and their cross-talk in various abiotic stresses help us design future crop management under changing climate, thus, sustaining food security with finite natural resources. This review article elucidates the strategic potential and prospects of biostimulants in mitigating the adverse impacts of harsh environmental conditions on plants.}, }
@article {pmid36340116, year = {2022}, author = {Halawy, SA and Osman, AI and Nasr, M and Rooney, DW}, title = {Mg-O-F Nanocomposite Catalysts Defend against Global Warming via the Efficient, Dynamic, and Rapid Capture of CO2 at Different Temperatures under Ambient Pressure.}, journal = {ACS omega}, volume = {7}, number = {43}, pages = {38856-38868}, pmid = {36340116}, issn = {2470-1343}, abstract = {The utilization of Mg-O-F prepared from Mg(OH)2 mixed with different wt % of F in the form of (NH4F·HF), calcined at 400 and 500 °C, for efficient capture of CO2 is studied herein in a dynamic mode. Two different temperatures were applied using a slow rate of 20 mL·min[-1] (100%) of CO2 passing through each sample for only 1 h. Using the thermogravimetry (TG)-temperature-programed desorption (TPD) technique, the captured amounts of CO2 at 5 °C were determined to be in the range of (39.6-103.9) and (28.9-82.1) mgCO2 ·g[-1] for samples of Mg(OH)2 mixed with 20-50% F and calcined at 400 and 500 °C, respectively, whereas, at 30 °C, the capacity of CO2 captured is slightly decreased to be in the range of (32.2-89.4) and (20.9-55.5) mgCO2 ·g[-1], respectively. The thermal decomposition of all prepared mixtures herein was examined by TG analysis. The obtained samples calcined at 400 and 500 °C were characterized by X-ray diffraction and surface area and porosity measurements. The total number of surface basic sites and their distribution over all samples was demonstrated using TG- and differential scanning calorimetry-TPD techniques using pyrrole as a probe molecule. Values of (ΔH) enthalpy changes corresponding to the desorption steps of CO2 were calculated for the most active adsorbent in this study, that is, Mg(OH)2 + 20% F, at 400 and 500 °C. This study's findings will inspire the simple preparation and economical design of nanocomposite CO2 sorbents for climate change mitigation under ambient conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36339753, year = {2022}, author = {Kumar, P and Singh, S and Pranaw, K and Kumar, S and Singh, B and Poria, V}, title = {Bioinoculants as mitigators of multiple stresses: A ray of hope for agriculture in the darkness of climate change.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {e11269}, pmid = {36339753}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Plant encounters various biotic and abiotic stresses, that affect agricultural productivity and reduce farmer's income especially under changing global climate. These environmental stresses can advance plant senescence by inducing osmotic stress, nutrient stress, hormonal imbalance, production of oxygen radicals, and ion toxicity, etc. Additionally, these stresses are not limited to plant health but also deteriorate soil health by affecting the microbial diversity of soil. To tackle this global delinquent of agriculture, several methods are suggested to ameliorate the negative effect of different types of stresses, the application of beneficial microorganisms or bioinoculants is one of them. Beneficial microorganisms that are used as bioinoculants not only facilitate plant growth by fulfilling the nutrient requirements but also assist the plant to withstand these stresses. These microorganisms produce certain chemicals such as 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylate (ACC) deaminase, phytohormones, antioxidants, extracellular polysaccharide (EPS), siderophores, antibiotics, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), etc. which help the plants to mitigate various stresses. Besides, these microbes also activate plant defence responses. Thus, these bioinoculants can effectively replace chemical inputs to supplement nutrient requirements and mitigation of multiple stresses in plants.}, }
@article {pmid36339526, year = {2022}, author = {Lawal, O}, title = {COVID-19 risks and systemic gaps in Nigeria: resilience building lessons for pandemic and climate change management.}, journal = {SN social sciences}, volume = {2}, number = {11}, pages = {247}, pmid = {36339526}, issn = {2662-9283}, abstract = {Pandemics alter a lot of human activities and the COVID-19 outbreak of 2020 was no exception. The COVID-19 pandemic, like climate change, has far-reaching consequences that transcend geographical boundaries. The COVID-19-induced disruptions were global and rapid and so are emerging climate change impacts which are slow on set. The consequent closure of businesses and public facilities translated to economic grounding which invariably took a toll on people. The extensive impact across various facets of society highlights the complex interrelationship often overlooked by most people. Although most African countries escaped the wrath of the disease, the lessons from the pandemic must be learnt and mainstreamed into managing the impacts of climate change. This paper attempts to draw lessons from recent developments and gaps experienced in the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria and how improvements can be made in managing climate change. The analysis identified gaps in the management of COVID-19 in Nigeria. These gaps are evident in the current management of climate change impact and mitigation. The paper highlighted lessons from the pandemic in Nigeria that are vital in the management of climate change. The paper identified supply chain resilience and circularity, overhauling of health insurance programmes, diversification for growth, reorientation of priorities, and the building of agile and responsive institutions as practical approaches to mainstream lessons from the pandemic for climate change impact management. Furthermore, adequate investment in preparedness, risk education, research and development, and integrated data infrastructure is vital to ensure the lessons become part of the consciousness of the people.}, }
@article {pmid36338189, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {General psychiatry}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {e100962}, pmid = {36338189}, issn = {2517-729X}, }
@article {pmid36337048, year = {2022}, author = {Shokri, M and Cozzoli, F and Vignes, F and Bertoli, M and Pizzul, E and Basset, A}, title = {Metabolic rate and climate change across latitudes: evidence of mass-dependent responses in aquatic amphipods.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {225}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {36337048}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Amphipoda/physiology ; Temperature ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {Predictions of individual responses to climate change are often based on the assumption that temperature affects the metabolism of individuals independently of their body mass. However, empirical evidence indicates that interactive effects exist. Here, we investigated the response of individual standard metabolic rate (SMR) to annual temperature range and forecasted temperature rises of 0.6-1.2°C above the current maxima, under the conservative climate change scenario IPCC RCP2.6. As a model organism, we used the amphipod Gammarus insensibilis, collected across latitudes along the western coast of the Adriatic Sea down to the southernmost limit of the species' distributional range, with individuals varying in body mass (0.4-13.57 mg). Overall, we found that the effect of temperature on SMR is mass dependent. Within the annual temperature range, the mass-specific SMR of small/young individuals increased with temperature at a greater rate (activation energy: E=0.48 eV) than large/old individuals (E=0.29 eV), with a higher metabolic level for high-latitude than low-latitude populations. However, under the forecasted climate conditions, the mass-specific SMR of large individuals responded differently across latitudes. Unlike the higher-latitude population, whose mass-specific SMR increased in response to the forecasted climate change across all size classes, in the lower-latitude populations, this increase was not seen in large individuals. The larger/older conspecifics at lower latitudes could therefore be the first to experience the negative impacts of warming on metabolism-related processes. Although the ecological collapse of such a basic trophic level (aquatic amphipods) owing to climate change would have profound consequences for population ecology, the risk is significantly mitigated by phenotypic and genotypic adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid36336707, year = {2022}, author = {Perazzolli, M and Vicelli, B and Antonielli, L and Longa, CMO and Bozza, E and Bertini, L and Caruso, C and Pertot, I}, title = {Simulated global warming affects endophytic bacterial and fungal communities of Antarctic pearlwort leaves and some bacterial isolates support plant growth at low temperatures.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {18839}, pmid = {36336707}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Mycobiome ; Temperature ; Antarctic Regions ; Bacteria/genetics ; Plant Leaves ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Antarctica is one of the most stressful environments for plant life and the Antarctic pearlwort (Colobanthus quitensis) is adapted to the hostile conditions. Plant-associated microorganisms can contribute to plant survival in cold environments, but scarce information is available on the taxonomic structure and functional roles of C. quitensis-associated microbial communities. This study aimed at evaluating the possible impacts of climate warming on the taxonomic structure of C. quitensis endophytes and at investigating the contribution of culturable bacterial endophytes to plant growth at low temperatures. The culture-independent analysis revealed changes in the taxonomic structure of bacterial and fungal communities according to plant growth conditions, such as the collection site and the presence of open-top chambers (OTCs), which can simulate global warming. Plants grown inside OTCs showed lower microbial richness and higher relative abundances of biomarker bacterial genera (Allorhizobium-Neorhizobium-Pararhizobium-Rhizobium, Aeromicrobium, Aureimonas, Hymenobacter, Novosphingobium, Pedobacter, Pseudomonas and Sphingomonas) and fungal genera (Alternaria, Cistella, and Vishniacozyma) compared to plants collected from open areas (OA), as a possible response to global warming simulated by OTCs. Culturable psychrotolerant bacteria of C. quitensis were able to endophytically colonize tomato seedlings and promote shoot growth at low temperatures, suggesting their potential contribution to plant tolerance to cold conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36335699, year = {2023}, author = {Panda, KC and Singh, RM and Singh, VK and Singla, S and Paramaguru, PK}, title = {Impact of climate change induced future rainfall variation on dynamics of arid-humid zone transition in the western province of India.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {325}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {116646}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116646}, pmid = {36335699}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; India ; }, abstract = {The transition of the Earth's climate from one zone to another is one of the major causes behind biodiversity loss, rural-urban migration, and increasing food crises. The rising rate of arid-humid zone transition due to climate change has been substantially visible in the last few decades. However, the precise quantification of the climate change-induced rainfall variation on the climate zone transition still remained a challenge. To solve the issue, the Representative Grid Location-Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (RGL-MARS) downscaling algorithm was coupled with the Koppen climate classification scheme to project future changes in various climate zones for the study area. It was observed that the performance of the model was better for the humid clusters compared to the arid clusters. It was noticed that, by the end of the 21[st] century, the arid region would increase marginally and the humid region would rise by 24.28-36.09% for the western province of India. In contrast, the area of the semi-arid and semi-humid regions would decline for the study area. It was observed that there would be an extensive conversion of semi-humid to humid zone in the peripheral region of the Arabian sea due to the strengthening of land-sea thermal contrast caused by climate change. Similarly, semi-arid to arid zone conversion would also increase due to the inflow of dry air from the Arabian region. The current research would be helpful for the researchers and policymakers to take appropriate measures to reduce the rate of climate zone transition, thereby developing the socioeconomic status of the rural and urban populations.}, }
@article {pmid36334703, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {7-9}, doi = {10.1016/j.annonc.2022.10.504}, pmid = {36334703}, issn = {1569-8041}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36334670, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, X and Ci, X and Hu, J and Bai, Y and Thornhill, AH and Conran, JG and Li, J}, title = {Riparian areas as a conservation priority under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {858}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {159879}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159879}, pmid = {36334670}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Refugium ; Biodiversity ; Rivers ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Identifying climatic refugia is important for long-term conservation planning under climate change. Riparian areas have the potential to provide climatic refugia for wildlife, but literature remains limited, especially for plants. This study was conducted with the purpose of identifying climatic refugia of plant biodiversity in the portion of the Mekong River Basin located in Xishuangbanna, China. We first predicted the current and future (2050s and 2070s) potential distribution of 50 threatened woody species in Xishuangbanna by using an ensemble of small models, then stacked the predictions for individual species to derive spatial biodiversity patterns within each 10 × 10 km grid cell. We then identified the top 17 % of the areas for spatial biodiversity patterns as biodiversity hotspots, with climatic refugia defined as areas that remained as biodiversity hotspots over time. Stepwise regression and linear correlation were applied to analyze the environmental correlations with spatial biodiversity patterns and the relationships between climatic refugia and river distribution, respectively. Our results showed potential upward and northward shifts in threatened woody species, with range contractions and expansions predicted. The spatial biodiversity patterns shift from southeast to northwest, and were influenced by temperature, precipitation, and elevation heterogeneity. Climatic refugia under climate change were related closely to river distribution in Xishuangbanna, with riparian areas identified that could provide climatic refugia. These refugial zones are recommended as priority conservation areas for mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Our study confirmed that riparian areas could act as climatic refugia for plants and emphasizes the conservation prioritization of riparian areas within river basins for protecting biodiversity under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36333301, year = {2022}, author = {Garcés-Pastor, S and Coissac, E and Lavergne, S and Schwörer, C and Theurillat, JP and Heintzman, PD and Wangensteen, OS and Tinner, W and Rey, F and Heer, M and Rutzer, A and Walsh, K and Lammers, Y and Brown, AG and Goslar, T and Rijal, DP and Karger, DN and Pellissier, L and ,  and Heiri, O and Alsos, IG}, title = {High resolution ancient sedimentary DNA shows that alpine plant diversity is associated with human land use and climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {6559}, pmid = {36333301}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *DNA, Ancient ; Plants/genetics ; Lakes ; Pollen ; }, abstract = {The European Alps are highly rich in species, but their future may be threatened by ongoing changes in human land use and climate. Here, we reconstructed vegetation, temperature, human impact and livestock over the past ~12,000 years from Lake Sulsseewli, based on sedimentary ancient plant and mammal DNA, pollen, spores, chironomids, and microcharcoal. We assembled a highly-complete local DNA reference library (PhyloAlps, 3923 plant taxa), and used this to obtain an exceptionally rich sedaDNA record of 366 plant taxa. Vegetation mainly responded to climate during the early Holocene, while human activity had an additional influence on vegetation from 6 ka onwards. Land-use shifted from episodic grazing during the Neolithic and Bronze Age to agropastoralism in the Middle Ages. Associated human deforestation allowed the coexistence of plant species typically found at different elevational belts, leading to levels of plant richness that characterise the current high diversity of this region. Our findings indicate a positive association between low intensity agropastoral activities and precipitation with the maintenance of the unique subalpine and alpine plant diversity of the European Alps.}, }
@article {pmid36333202, year = {2022}, author = {Stranges, S and Luginaah, I}, title = {Nutrition and health: Time for a paradigm shift for climate change.}, journal = {Nutrition, metabolism, and cardiovascular diseases : NMCD}, volume = {32}, number = {12}, pages = {2782-2785}, doi = {10.1016/j.numecd.2022.09.023}, pmid = {36333202}, issn = {1590-3729}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Nutritional Status ; }, }
@article {pmid36331953, year = {2022}, author = {Jia, X and You, G and McKenzie, S and Zou, C and Gao, J and Wang, A}, title = {Inter-annual variations of vegetation dynamics to climate change in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {11}, pages = {e0264263}, pmid = {36331953}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Temperature ; Seasons ; China ; }, abstract = {To reveal the characteristics of climate change and the controlling factors for vegetation dynamics in the Ordos, Inner Mongolia, China, 34 years (1982-2015) of regional climate variables and vegetation dynamics were investigated. The results show that: Annual mean air temperature (TMP) significantly increased with a linear slope of 0.473°C/10yr. Annual precipitation (PRE) had a non-significant positive trend nearly 5 times lower than the trend of potential evapotranspiration (PET). The average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) computed for the region was found to show a significant positive trend (6.131×10-4/yr). However, all climate variables displayed non-significant correlations with NDVI at annual scale. The reduction of desert and the increase of grassland over the past decades were accountable for the increased NDVI. Principal components analysis revealed that the regional climate change can be characterized as changes in temperature, humidity and the availability of radiant energy. Based on principal components regression coefficients, NDVI was mostly sensitive to humidity component, followed by growing season warmth (WMI). Spatially, 93.1% of the pixels displayed positive trend and 61.8% of the pixels displayed significant change over the past decades. Both principal regression analysis and partial correlation analysis revealed that NDVI in eastern part of Ordos was sensitive to TMP, whereas, NDVI in southern and western areas of Ordos displayed the high sensitivity to combined effects of PRE and cloud coverage (CLD). Partial correlation analyses also revealed that TMX was a surrogate for aridity, TMN was a representative of humidity, and temperature variations below the threshold of 5°C (CDI) were less important than WMI. We conclude that regional climate change can be characterized by warming and increased aridity. The significant positive trend of regional NDVI and the non-significant correlations between NDVI and climate variables at annual scale suggests the hidden role of the human activities.}, }
@article {pmid36331200, year = {2022}, author = {Cheruiyot, SJ and Kimanthi, M and Shabani, JS and Nyamu, NF and Gathu, C and Agoi, F and De Meijer, F}, title = {Climate change poses a threat to nutrition and food security in Kilifi County, Kenya.}, journal = {African journal of primary health care &amp; family medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-e4}, pmid = {36331200}, issn = {2071-2936}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Kenya ; *Agriculture/methods ; Food Supply ; Food Security ; }, abstract = {Over the last decades, increased emission of greenhouse gases has led to hot weather extremes, heavy precipitation and worsening of agricultural and ecological droughts. Although Africa's contribution to climate change is minimal, the continent is especially vulnerable to its effects. This report aims to describe the effect of climate change leading to drought in Kilifi County, Kenya, and the communities' experiences of this effect on food availability. During their community rotation, residents from a university in Nairobi, Kenya, evaluated changes in weather patterns and nutrition indicators in Kilifi County and conducted focus group discussions (FGDs) with community members and health care stakeholders to explore challenges in access to adequate nutrition and possible local solutions. Kilifi County has one of the highest rates of undernutrition in Kenya, with one in five under-5 children being underweight. County data showed that rainfall in the last 4 years has become increasingly unpredictable, resulting in reduced household milk production, one of the indicators of nutrition security. Three major themes emerged from the FGDs: lack of food variety, collapse of drought mitigating projects and increasing poverty levels. Possible solutions to these problems include promoting alternatives to the current diet that are culturally sensitive and adaptable to recent climate changes, ensuring continuity of agricultural and financial support projects and improved local leadership and governance.}, }
@article {pmid36331156, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Sidibe, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Danish medical journal}, volume = {69}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {36331156}, issn = {2245-1919}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36330129, year = {2022}, author = {Kespohl, S and Riebesehl, J and Grüner, J and Raulf, M}, title = {Impact of climate change on wood and woodworkers-Cryptostroma corticale (sooty bark disease): A risk factor for trees and exposed employees.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {973686}, pmid = {36330129}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Humans ; Alveolitis, Extrinsic Allergic/epidemiology/microbiology ; *Climate Change ; Immunoglobulin G ; *Occupational Diseases/epidemiology/microbiology ; Plant Bark/microbiology ; Risk Factors ; Trees/microbiology ; *Wood/microbiology ; *Occupational Exposure/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Climate changes have promoted an increased fungal infection of maple trees with Cryptostroma corticale, the causative agent of sooty bark disease. The hosts of C. corticale are maples, and since the early 2000s the fungus has been appearing more frequently in European forests, due to the droughts and hot summers of recent years. Infestation by C. corticale discolors the wood and makes it unusable for further processing, which leads to considerable economic damage in the timber industry. Therefore, the occurrence and spread of sooty bark disease raise serious problems. In addition to forestry and economic problems, the conidiospores of C. corticale can also cause health problems in exposed wood workers and they can trigger hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP). Since the spores, which are deposited over the entire area under the bark of infected trees, can spread during processing, exposed workers must take special precautions to protect themselves against exposure. If an occupational disease is nevertheless suspected following exposure to C. corticale, valid diagnostics are required to confirm possible HP and derive appropriate therapies and exposure reduction or avoidance. Diagnosis of HP is based on several criteria, one of them is the detection of specific IgG in patient's serum against the potentially triggering antigens, in this case C. corticale antigens. To produce a diagnostic tool to measure C. corticale specific IgG, which is not commercially available so far, spores and mycelial material from ITS-sequenced strains of C. corticale was prepared and analyzed. These biochemically characterized extracts of spore and mycelial antigens were biotinylated and coupled to Streptavidin-ImmunoCAPs. To validate these diagnostic test tools the first step is to measure the concentration of C. corticale specific IgG in sera of healthy non-exposed and healthy exposed subjects to establish cut-off values. Suitable participants were recruited and the individual exposure to C. corticale and symptoms experienced during or after working with infected maple trees were recorded using questionnaires. Finally, diagnostic tools for serological testing in suspected cases of HP by C. corticale were created and evaluated. The following article provides recommendations for the treatment and disposal of infected damaged wood and for occupational health protection procedures. Secondly, the diagnosis of HP induced by exposure to C. corticale as an occupational disease is described including the verification of newly developed serological test tools for antigens of C. corticale.}, }
@article {pmid36330078, year = {2022}, author = {Wigand, ME and Timmermann, C and Scherp, A and Becker, T and Steger, F}, title = {Climate Change, Pollution, Deforestation, and Mental Health: Research Trends, Gaps, and Ethical Considerations.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {e2022GH000632}, pmid = {36330078}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Climate change, pollution, and deforestation have a negative impact on global mental health. There is an environmental justice dimension to this challenge as wealthy people and high-income countries are major contributors to climate change and pollution, while poor people and low-income countries are heavily affected by the consequences. Using state-of-the art data mining, we analyzed and visualized the global research landscape on mental health, climate change, pollution and deforestation over a 15-year period. Metadata of papers were exported from PubMed®, and both relevance and relatedness of terms in different time frames were computed using VOSviewer. Co-occurrence graphs were used to visualize results. The development of exemplary terms over time was plotted separately. The number of research papers on mental health and environmental challenges is growing in a linear fashion. Major topics are climate change, chemical pollution, including psychiatric medication in wastewater, and neurobiological effects. Research on specific psychiatric syndromes and diseases, particularly on their ethical and social aspects is less prominent. There is a growing body of research literature on links between mental health, climate change, pollution, and deforestation. This research provides a graphic overview to mental healthcare professionals and political stakeholders. Social and ethical aspects of the climate change-mental health link have been neglected, and more research is needed.}, }
@article {pmid36330077, year = {2022}, author = {Miara, MD and Negadi, M and Tabak, S and Bendif, H and Dahmani, W and Ait Hammou, M and Sahnoun, T and Snorek, J and Porcher, V and Reyes-García, V and Teixidor-Toneu, I}, title = {Climate Change Impacts Can Be Differentially Perceived Across Time Scales: A Study Among the Tuareg of the Algerian Sahara.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {e2022GH000620}, pmid = {36330077}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {As an Indigenous community of Algeria and the broader Sahel, the Tuareg hold unique ecological knowledge, which might contribute to broader models of place-based climate change impacts. Between January and April 2019, we carried out semi-structured interviews (N = 23) and focus group discussions (N = 3) in five villages of the province of Illizi, Algeria, to document the local Tuareg community's timeline and ecological calendar, both of which are instruments used to understand place-based reports of climate change impacts. The livelihoods of the Tuareg of Illizi are finely tuned to climate variability as reflected in changes reported in the cadence of events in their ecological calendar (marked by cyclical climatic and religious events). Participants reported rain and temperature irregularities and severe drought events, which have impacted their pastoral and semi-pastoral livelihoods. These reports are aligned with scientifically measured climate observations and predictions. Paradoxically, although participants recall with detail the climatic disasters that happened in the region over the last century, the Tuareg do not explicitly report decadal trends in the frequency of extreme events. The differential perception of climate change impacts across scales can have important implications for undertaking climate change adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid36325567, year = {2022}, author = {Habib-Ur-Rahman, M and Ahmad, A and Raza, A and Hasnain, MU and Alharby, HF and Alzahrani, YM and Bamagoos, AA and Hakeem, KR and Ahmad, S and Nasim, W and Ali, S and Mansour, F and El Sabagh, A}, title = {Impact of climate change on agricultural production; Issues, challenges, and opportunities in Asia.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {925548}, pmid = {36325567}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Agricultural production is under threat due to climate change in food insecure regions, especially in Asian countries. Various climate-driven extremes, i.e., drought, heat waves, erratic and intense rainfall patterns, storms, floods, and emerging insect pests have adversely affected the livelihood of the farmers. Future climatic predictions showed a significant increase in temperature, and erratic rainfall with higher intensity while variability exists in climatic patterns for climate extremes prediction. For mid-century (2040-2069), it is projected that there will be a rise of 2.8°C in maximum temperature and a 2.2°C in minimum temperature in Pakistan. To respond to the adverse effects of climate change scenarios, there is a need to optimize the climate-smart and resilient agricultural practices and technology for sustainable productivity. Therefore, a case study was carried out to quantify climate change effects on rice and wheat crops and to develop adaptation strategies for the rice-wheat cropping system during the mid-century (2040-2069) as these two crops have significant contributions to food production. For the quantification of adverse impacts of climate change in farmer fields, a multidisciplinary approach consisted of five climate models (GCMs), two crop models (DSSAT and APSIM) and an economic model [Trade-off Analysis, Minimum Data Model Approach (TOAMD)] was used in this case study. DSSAT predicted that there would be a yield reduction of 15.2% in rice and 14.1% in wheat and APSIM showed that there would be a yield reduction of 17.2% in rice and 12% in wheat. Adaptation technology, by modification in crop management like sowing time and density, nitrogen, and irrigation application have the potential to enhance the overall productivity and profitability of the rice-wheat cropping system under climate change scenarios. Moreover, this paper reviews current literature regarding adverse climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, associated main issues, challenges, and opportunities for sustainable productivity of agriculture to ensure food security in Asia. Flowing opportunities such as altering sowing time and planting density of crops, crop rotation with legumes, agroforestry, mixed livestock systems, climate resilient plants, livestock and fish breeds, farming of monogastric livestock, early warning systems and decision support systems, carbon sequestration, climate, water, energy, and soil smart technologies, and promotion of biodiversity have the potential to reduce the negative effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36323607, year = {2022}, author = {Giosuè, A and Recanati, F and Calabrese, I and Dembska, K and Castaldi, S and Gagliardi, F and Vitale, M and Vaccaro, O and Antonelli, M and Riccardi, G}, title = {Good for the heart, good for the Earth: proposal of a dietary pattern able to optimize cardiovascular disease prevention and mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Nutrition, metabolism, and cardiovascular diseases : NMCD}, volume = {32}, number = {12}, pages = {2772-2781}, doi = {10.1016/j.numecd.2022.08.001}, pmid = {36323607}, issn = {1590-3729}, mesh = {Humans ; Adult ; Cattle ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Prospective Studies ; Diet/adverse effects ; Vegetables ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Human and planetary health are inextricably interconnected through food systems. Food choices account for 50% of all deaths for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) - the leading cause of death in Europe - and food systems generate up to 37% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.<br><br>METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on a systematic revision of meta-analyses of prospective studies exploring the association between individual foods/food groups and the incidence of CVD, we identified a dietary pattern able to optimize CVD prevention.. This dietary pattern was compared to the current diet of the European population. The nutritional adequacy of both diets was evaluated according to the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) recommended nutrient intake for the adult population, and their environmental impact was evaluated in terms of carbon footprint (CF). As compared to the current diet, the desirable diet includes higher intakes of fruit, vegetables, wholegrains, low glycemic index (GI) cereals, nuts, legumes and fish, and lower amounts of beef, butter, high GI cereals or potatoes and sugar. The diet here identified provides appropriate intakes of all nutrients and matches better than the current Europeans' one the EFSA requirements. Furthermore, the CF of the proposed diet is 48.6% lower than that of the current Europeans' diet.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The transition toward a dietary pattern designed to optimize CVD prevention would improve the nutritional profile of the habitual diet in Europe and, at the same time, contribute to mitigate climate change by reducing the GHG emissions linked to food consumption almost by half.}, }
@article {pmid36323066, year = {2022}, author = {Zhou, L and He, C and Kim, H and Honda, Y and Lee, W and Hashizume, M and Chen, R and Kan, H}, title = {The burden of heat-related stroke mortality under climate change scenarios in 22 East Asian cities.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {170}, number = {}, pages = {107602}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2022.107602}, pmid = {36323066}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Aged ; Humans ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; East Asian People ; Hot Temperature ; *Stroke/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in East Asia. Owing to the aging population and high prevalence of stroke, East Asia might suffer a disproportionately heavy burden of stroke under the changing climate. However, the evidence relevant is still limited in this area.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the stroke mortality risk due to heat exposure in East Asia and predict its burden under various future climate change scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a multi-center observational study and collected data from 22 representative cities in three main East Asian countries (i.e., China, Japan, and South Korea) from 1972 to 2015. The two-stage time-series analyses were applied to estimate the effects of heat on stroke mortality at the regional and country level. We further projected the burden of heat-related stroke mortality using 10 global climate models (GCMs) under four shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios, including SSP1-RCP1.9, SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: In the present study, a total of 287,579&#xa0;stroke deaths were collected during the warm season. Heat was significantly associated with an increased risk of stroke mortality. Overall, compared with the 2010&#xa0;s, the heat-related attributable fraction (AF) was projected to increase in the 2090&#xa0;s, with increments ranging from 0.8&#xa0;% to 7.5&#xa0;% across various climate change scenarios. The heat-related AF was projected to reach 11.9&#xa0;% (95&#xa0;% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 6.1&#xa0;%, 17.5&#xa0;%) in the 2090&#xa0;s under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario in China, while the corresponding estimates were 6.6&#xa0;% (95&#xa0;% eCI: 2.5&#xa0;%, 11.0&#xa0;%) and 5.1&#xa0;% (95&#xa0;% eCI: 1.2&#xa0;%, 9.1&#xa0;%) for Japan and South Korea, respectively.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change will exacerbate the burden of heat-related stroke mortality but with considerable geographical heterogeneity in East Asia.}, }
@article {pmid36322652, year = {2022}, author = {Xu, X and Huang, A and Belle, E and De Frenne, P and Jia, G}, title = {Protected areas provide thermal buffer against climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {8}, number = {44}, pages = {eabo0119}, pmid = {36322652}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Climate change is pushing temperatures beyond the thermal tolerance of many species. Whether protected areas (PAs) can serve as climate change refugia for biodiversity has not yet been explored. We find that PAs of natural (seminatural) vegetation effectively cool the land surface temperature, particularly the daily maximum temperature in the tropics, and reduce diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges in boreal and temperate regions, as compared to nonprotected areas that are often disturbed or converted to various land uses. Moreover, protected forests slow the rate of warming more at higher latitudes. The warming rate in protected boreal forests is up to 20% lower than in their surroundings, which is particularly important for species in the boreal where warming is more pronounced. The fact that nonprotected areas with the same type of vegetation as PAs show reduced warming buffer capacity highlights the importance of conservation to stabilize the local climate and safeguard biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid36322489, year = {2022}, author = {Pappaioanou, M and Kane, TR}, title = {Addressing the urgent health challenges of climate change and ecosystem degradation from a One Health perspective: what can veterinarians contribute?.}, journal = {Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association}, volume = {261}, number = {1}, pages = {49-55}, doi = {10.2460/javma.22.07.0315}, pmid = {36322489}, issn = {1943-569X}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Veterinarians ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *One Health ; }, abstract = {Since the field of One Health was introduced in the early 2000s, veterinary medicine has provided leadership in working with other disciplines and sectors to identify effective, sustainable solutions to complex health problems that are shared by humans, animals, and the environment. Human-induced climate change has accelerated since the Industrial Age, resulting in serious adverse human, animal, and environmental health consequences. We summarize several drivers of climate change and ecosystem degradation connected to veterinary medicine. Building on previous studies and observations of others, we propose a set of urgent and actionable recommendations for individual veterinarians and the veterinary profession to mitigate and adapt to the health risks posed by climate change and ecosystem degradation at community, local, state, national, and international levels. In addition, we call for emphasizing the foundational relationship between climate change and ecosystem health to human, animal, and environmental health; integrating environmental health, climate change, and the diagnosis and treatment of climate-related adverse health outcomes into veterinary medical education and research; and providing ever-greater national and global leadership and participation by the veterinary medical profession to confront the causes and health consequences of human-induced climate change and ecosystem degradation, working in collaboration with other health professions, disciplines, and sectors.}, }
@article {pmid36322280, year = {2023}, author = {Dayton, L and Balaban, A and Scherkoske, M and Latkin, C}, title = {Family Communication About Climate Change in the United States.}, journal = {Journal of prevention (2022)}, volume = {44}, number = {4}, pages = {373-387}, pmid = {36322280}, issn = {2731-5541}, support = {R01 DA040488/DA/NIDA NIH HHS/United States ; R01 DA040488/DA/NIDA NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Family discussions about climate change are a critical factor influencing children's climate change perceptions and behaviors. Yet, there is limited research on family communication about climate change in the US. Drawing from an online longitudinal sample, 214 parents reported on their 336 children. Descriptive statistics examined engagement in family climate change communication. Children's climate change concerns and parents' interest in engaging in conversations about climate change were assessed by the child's age. Logistic models examined how recent family climate change communication was associated with parents' perceived roles and barriers to engaging in conversations. Most parents (68%) were interested in talking to their children about climate change; of those expressing interest, only 46% reported recent communication. Parents reported that older children were more concerned about climate change than younger children (0-5 years: 21%; 6-11 years: 43%; 12-17 years: 56%), but no differences were identified in parents' interest in communicating with their children by the child's age. Recent family climate change communication was significantly associated with not knowing what to say and parents' perception that their role was to support their children in action. Study findings suggest a significant opportunity to involve families in climate change communication. Parents may benefit from training resources, especially those tailored to children's age, to help them communicate with their children about climate change. Strategies that engage parents and children in activism activities together are also needed.}, }
@article {pmid36321488, year = {2022}, author = {Durfort, A and Mariani, G and Tulloch, V and Savoca, MS and Troussellier, M and Mouillot, D}, title = {Recovery of carbon benefits by overharvested baleen whale populations is threatened by climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {289}, number = {1986}, pages = {20220375}, pmid = {36321488}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Whales ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Carbon ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Despite the importance of marine megafauna on ecosystem functioning, their contribution to the oceanic carbon cycle is still poorly known. Here, we explored the role of baleen whales in the biological carbon pump across the southern hemisphere based on the historical and forecasted abundance of five baleen whale species. We modelled whale-mediated carbon sequestration through the sinking of their carcasses after natural death. We provide the first temporal dynamics of this carbon pump from 1890 to 2100, considering both the effects of exploitation and climate change on whale populations. We reveal that at their pre-exploitation abundance, the five species of southern whales could sequester 4.0 × 10[5] tonnes of carbon per year (tC yr[-1]). This estimate dropped to 0.6 × 10[5] tC yr[-1] by 1972 following commercial whaling. However, with the projected restoration of whale populations under a RCP8.5 climate scenario, the sequestration would reach 1.7 × 10[5] tC yr[-1] by 2100, while without climate change, recovered whale populations could sequester nearly twice as much (3.2 × 10[5] tC yr[-1]) by 2100. This highlights the persistence of whaling damages on whale populations and associated services as well as the predicted harmful impacts of climate change on whale ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid36321221, year = {2023}, author = {Moein Taghavi, H and Eldeeb, S}, title = {The adverse effects of climate change on congenital birth defects.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {447-448}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.14542}, pmid = {36321221}, issn = {1879-3479}, mesh = {Infant, Newborn ; Humans ; Female ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollution ; Maternal Exposure/adverse effects ; *Infant, Newborn, Diseases ; Iatrogenic Disease ; }, }
@article {pmid36321212, year = {2023}, author = {Conry, J and Robson, S}, title = {Climate change and women's health: Turning leadership into action.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {400-404}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.14543}, pmid = {36321212}, issn = {1879-3479}, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Female ; Humans ; *Gynecology ; *Obstetrics ; Leadership ; Climate Change ; Women's Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is considered the greatest long-term challenge we face, and it comes with a direct impact on women's health and pregnancy outcomes. There are many balances that physicians make in deciding elements of care, but environmental impact has not been a consideration. Health care leaders must recognize the impact of their decisions on carbon footprints and creatively look towards changes that will improve global conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36319069, year = {2023}, author = {Young, SE and Khoshnaw, LJ and Johnson, RJ}, title = {Climate and the Nephrologist: The Intersection of Climate Change, Kidney Disease, and Clinical Care.}, journal = {Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {411-417}, pmid = {36319069}, issn = {1555-905X}, mesh = {Humans ; Nephrologists ; Climate Change ; *Nephrology ; Renal Dialysis/adverse effects ; *Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/epidemiology/therapy ; }, abstract = {Climate change is upon us, and it will have a major effect on both kidney disease and the nephrology practice. But the converse is also true: our treatment of kidney disease has an effect on the climate. Much attention has focused on how rising temperatures can lead to acute and CKD and health exacerbations in patients with established kidney disease. Climate change is also associated with rising air pollution from wildfires and industrial wastes and infectious diseases associated with flooding and changing habitats, all of which heighten the risk of acute and CKD. Less well recognized or understood are the ways nephrology practices, in turn, contribute to still more climate change. Hemodialysis, although lifesaving, can be associated with marked water usage (up to 600 L per dialysis session), energy usage (with one 4-hour session averaging as much as one fifth of the total energy consumed by a household per day), and large clinical wastes (with hemodialysis accounting for one third of total clinical medicine-associated waste). Of note, >90% of dialysis occurs in highly affluent countries, whereas dialysis is much less available in the poorer countries where climate change is having the highest effect on kidney disease. We conclude that not only do nephrologists need to prepare for the rise in climate-associated kidney disease, they must also urgently develop more climate-friendly methods of managing patients with kidney disease.}, }
@article {pmid36317521, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Anatolian journal of cardiology}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {799-801}, pmid = {36317521}, issn = {2149-2271}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36317520, year = {2022}, author = {Erol, &#xc7;}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference Editorial, TAVI, SGLT2 inhibitors….}, journal = {Anatolian journal of cardiology}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {798}, doi = {10.5152/AnatolJCardiol.2022.11}, pmid = {36317520}, issn = {2149-2271}, mesh = {Humans ; *Sodium-Glucose Transporter 2 Inhibitors/therapeutic use ; Climate Change ; Hypoglycemic Agents/pharmacology ; *Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 ; }, }
@article {pmid36317381, year = {2022}, author = {Salami, RK}, title = {A letter in the Lancet of June 2020[1] claimed the COVID-19 pandemic teaches lessons we must embrace to overcome two additional existential threats: nuclear war and global warming. What lessons can we learn from the global response to COVID-19 that could help the world address future threats such as climate change or the proliferation of nuclear weapons? [1]Muller and Nathan.}, journal = {Medicine, conflict, and survival}, volume = {38}, number = {4}, pages = {332-338}, doi = {10.1080/13623699.2022.2139861}, pmid = {36317381}, issn = {1362-3699}, mesh = {Humans ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Climate Change ; *Nuclear Weapons ; Cell Proliferation ; }, }
@article {pmid36317120, year = {2022}, author = {Weinert, M and Kröncke, I and Meyer, J and Mathis, M and Pohlmann, T and Reiss, H}, title = {Benthic ecosystem functioning under climate change: modelling the bioturbation potential for benthic key species in the southern North Sea.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e14105}, pmid = {36317120}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; North Sea ; *Bivalvia ; Sea Urchins ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects the marine environment on many levels with profound consequences for numerous biological, chemical, and physical processes. Benthic bioturbation is one of the most relevant and significant processes for benthic-pelagic coupling and biogeochemical fluxes in marine sediments, such as the uptake, transport, and remineralisation of organic carbon. However, only little is known about how climate change affects the distribution and intensity of benthic bioturbation of a shallow temperate shelf sea system such as the southern North Sea. In this study, we modelled and projected changes in bioturbation potential (BPp) under a continuous global warming scenario for seven southern North Sea key bioturbators: Abra alba, Amphiura filiformis, Callianassa subterranea, Echinocardium cordatum, Goniada maculata, Nephtys hombergii, and Nucula nitidosa. Spatial changes in species bioturbation intensity are simulated for the years 2050 and 2099 based on one species distribution model per species driven by bottom temperature and salinity changes using the IPCC SRES scenario A1B. Local mean bottom temperature was projected to increase between 0.15 and 5.4 °C, while mean bottom salinity was projected to moderately decrease by 1.7. Our results show that the considered benthic species are strongly influenced by the temperature increase. Although the total BP remained rather constant in the southern North Sea, the BPp for four out of seven species was projected to increase, mainly due to a simultaneous northward range expansion, while the BPp in the core area of the southern North Sea declined for the same species. Bioturbation of the most important species, Amphiura filiformis and Echinocardium cordatum, showed no substantial change in the spatial distribution, but over time. The BPp of E. cordatum remained almost constant until 2099, while the BPp of A. filiformis decreased by 41%. The northward expansion of some species and the decline of most species in the south led to a change of relative contribution to bioturbation in the southern North Sea. These results indicate that some of the selected key bioturbators in the southern North Sea might partly compensate the decrease in bioturbation by others. But especially in the depositional areas where bioturbation plays a specifically important role for ecosystem functioning, bioturbation potential declined until 2099, which might affect the biochemical cycling in sediments of some areas of the southern North Sea.}, }
@article {pmid36316531, year = {2022}, author = {Pathak, H}, title = {Impact, adaptation, and mitigation of climate change in Indian agriculture.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {1}, pages = {52}, pmid = {36316531}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Agriculture ; Soil/chemistry ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Methane/analysis ; *Oryza ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses serious risks to Indian agriculture as half of the agricultural land of the country is rainfed. Climate change affects crop yield, soil processes, water availability, and pest dynamics. Several adaptation strategies such as heat- and water stress-tolerant crop varieties, stress-tolerant new crops, improved agronomic management practices, improved water use efficiency, conservation agriculture practices and improved pest management, improved weather forecasts, and other climate services are in place to minimize the climatic risks. The agriculture sector contributes 14% of the greenhouse gas (GHG) from the country. Mitigation of GHG emission from agriculture can be achieved by changing land-use management practices and enhancing input-use efficiency. Experiments in India showed that methane emission from lowland rice fields can be reduced by 40-50% with alternate wetting and drying (AWD), growing shorter duration varieties, and using neem-coated urea according to soil health card (SHC) and leaf color chart (LCC). Dry direct-seeding of rice, which does not require continuous soil submergence, can reduce methane emission by 70-75%. Sequestration of carbon (C) in agricultural soil can be promoted with the application of organic manure, crop residues, and balanced nutrients. India has taken several proactive steps for addressing the issues of climate change in agriculture. Recently, it has also committed for reducing GHG emission intensity by 45% by 2030 and achieving net zero emission by 2070. The paper discusses the major impacts of climate change, potential adaptation, and mitigation options and the initiatives of Govt. of India in making Indian agriculture climate-smart.}, }
@article {pmid36316526, year = {2022}, author = {Hart, EH and Christofides, SR and Davies, TE and Stevens, PR and Creevey, CJ and Müller, CT and Rogers, HJ and Kingston-Smith, AH}, title = {Author Correction: Forage grass growth under future climate change scenarios affects fermentation and ruminant efficiency.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {18329}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-022-21958-y}, pmid = {36316526}, issn = {2045-2322}, }
@article {pmid36312457, year = {2021}, author = {Hassan, S and Cuevas Garcia-Dorado, S and Belesova, K and Murage, P and Whitmee, S and Huxley, R and Green, R and Haines, A}, title = {A protocol for analysing the effects on health and greenhouse gas emissions of implemented climate change mitigation actions.}, journal = {Wellcome open research}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {111}, pmid = {36312457}, issn = {2398-502X}, abstract = {Background: It is crucial to understand the benefits to human health from decarbonisation to galvanise action among decision makers. Most of our existing evidence comes from modelling studies and little is known about the extent to which the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation actions are realised upon implementation. We aim to analyse evidence from mitigation actions that have been implemented across a range of sectors and scales, to identify those that can improve and sustain health, while accelerating progress towards a zero-carbon economy. Objectives: To understand the implementation process of actions and the role of key actors; explain the contextual elements influencing these actions; summarise what effects, both positive and negative, planned and unplanned they may have on emissions of greenhouse gases and health; and to summarise environmental, social, or economic co-benefits. Data: We will review evidence collected through partnership with existing data holders and an open call for evidence. We will also conduct a hand search of reference lists from systematic reviews and websites of organisations relevant to climate change mitigation. Screening: Screening will be done by two reviewers according to a pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Analysis: We will identify gaps where implementation or evaluation of implementation of mitigation actions is lacking. We will synthesise the findings to describe how actions were implemented and how they achieved results in different contexts, identifying potential barriers and facilitators to their design, implementation, and uptake. We will also synthesise their effect on health outcomes and other co-benefits. Quantitative synthesis will depend on the heterogeneity of outcomes and metrics. Conclusions: Findings will be used to identify lessons that can be learned from successful and unsuccessful mitigation actions, to make inferences on replicability, scalability, and transferability and will contribute to the development of frameworks that can be used by policy makers.}, }
@article {pmid36315186, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Turkish thoracic journal}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {366-368}, pmid = {36315186}, issn = {2149-2530}, }
@article {pmid36314951, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Turkish archives of pediatrics}, volume = {57}, number = {6}, pages = {575-577}, pmid = {36314951}, issn = {2757-6256}, }
@article {pmid36314181, year = {2023}, author = {Ferrari, GN and Leal, GCL and Thom de Souza, RC and Galdamez, EVC}, title = {Impact of climate change on occupational health and safety: A review of methodological approaches.}, journal = {Work (Reading, Mass.)}, volume = {74}, number = {2}, pages = {485-499}, doi = {10.3233/WOR-211303}, pmid = {36314181}, issn = {1875-9270}, mesh = {Humans ; *Occupational Health ; Climate Change ; Workplace ; Hot Temperature ; *Occupational Exposure ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The working population is exposed daily to unavoidable climatic conditions due to their occupational settings. Effects of the weather such as rain, heat, and air pollution may increase the risk of diseases, injuries, accidents, and even death during labor.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to summarize the impacts of climate change on workers' health, safety and performance, identifying the risks, affected workplaces and the range of methodological approaches used to assess this problem.<br><br>METHODS: A thorough systematic mapping was conducted in seven scientific international databases: Emerald, IEEE Xplore, Science Direct, Scielo, Scopus, SpringerLink, and Web of Science. Three research questions guided the extraction process resulting in 170 articles regarding the impacts of climate change on occupational health and safety.<br><br>RESULTS: We found an accentuated trend in observational studies applying primary and secondary data collection. Many studies focused on the association between rising temperatures and occupational hazards, mainly in outdoor work settings such as agriculture. The variation of temperature was the most investigated impact of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We established a knowledge base on how to explore the impacts of climate change on workers' well-being and health. Researchers and policymakers benefit from this review, which explores the suitable methods found in the literature and highlights the most recurring risks and their consequences to occupational health and safety.}, }
@article {pmid36312749, year = {2022}, author = {Knight, J}, title = {Scientists' warning of the impacts of climate change on mountains.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e14253}, pmid = {36312749}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Ice Cover ; Snow ; }, abstract = {Mountains are highly diverse in areal extent, geological and climatic context, ecosystems and human activity. As such, mountain environments worldwide are particularly sensitive to the effects of anthropogenic climate change (global warming) as a result of their unique heat balance properties and the presence of climatically-sensitive snow, ice, permafrost and ecosystems. Consequently, mountain systems-in particular cryospheric ones-are currently undergoing unprecedented changes in the Anthropocene. This study identifies and discusses four of the major properties of mountains upon which anthropogenic climate change can impact, and indeed is already doing so. These properties are: the changing mountain cryosphere of glaciers and permafrost; mountain hazards and risk; mountain ecosystems and their services; and mountain communities and infrastructure. It is notable that changes in these different mountain properties do not follow a predictable trajectory of evolution in response to anthropogenic climate change. This demonstrates that different elements of mountain systems exhibit different sensitivities to forcing. The interconnections between these different properties highlight that mountains should be considered as integrated biophysical systems, of which human activity is part. Interrelationships between these mountain properties are discussed through a model of mountain socio-biophysical systems, which provides a framework for examining climate impacts and vulnerabilities. Managing the risks associated with ongoing climate change in mountains requires an integrated approach to climate change impacts monitoring and management.}, }
@article {pmid36312741, year = {2022}, author = {LeDuc, SD and Clark, CM and Phelan, J and Belyazid, S and Bennett, M and Boaggio, K and Buckley, J and Cajka, J and Jones, P}, title = {Nitrogen and sulfur deposition reductions projected to partially restore forest soil conditions in the US Northeast, while understory composition continues to shift with future climate change.}, journal = {Water, air, and soil pollution}, volume = {233}, number = {376}, pages = {1-26}, pmid = {36312741}, issn = {0049-6979}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Human activities have dramatically increased nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, altering forest ecosystem function and structure. Anticipating how changes in deposition and climate impact forests can inform decisions regarding these environmental stressors. Here, we used a dynamic soil-vegetation model (ForSAFE-Veg) to simulate responses to future scenarios of atmospheric deposition and climate change across 23 Northeastern hardwood stands. Specifically, we simulated soil percent base saturation, acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), nitrate (NO3 [-]) leaching, and understory composition under 13 interacting deposition and climate change scenarios to the year 2100, including anticipated deposition reductions under the Clean Air Act (CAA) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-projected climate futures. Overall, deposition affected soil responses more than climate did. Soils recovered to historic conditions only when future deposition returned to pre-industrial levels, although anticipated CAA deposition reductions led to a partial recovery of percent base saturation (60 to 72%) and ANC (65 to 71%) compared to historic values. CAA reductions also limited NO3 [-] leaching to 30 to 66% above historic levels, while current levels of deposition resulted in NO3 [-] leaching 150 to 207% above historic values. In contrast to soils, understory vegetation was affected strongly by both deposition and climate. Vegetation shifted away from historic and current assemblages with increasing deposition and climate change. Anticipated CAA reductions could maintain current assemblages under current climate conditions or slow community shifts under increased future changes in temperature and precipitation. Overall, our results can inform decision makers on how these dual stressors interact to affect forest health, and the efficacy of deposition reductions under a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid36312573, year = {2022}, author = {Valizadeh, M and Khoorani, A}, title = {The impact of climate change on the outdoor tourism with a focus on the outdoor tourism climate index (OTCI) in Hormozgan province, Iran.}, journal = {Theoretical and applied climatology}, volume = {150}, number = {3-4}, pages = {1605-1612}, pmid = {36312573}, issn = {0177-798X}, abstract = {The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the climate condition of outdoor tourists in Hormozgan province, Iran, through Outdoor Tourism Climate Index (OTCI). For this purpose, the data pertaining to 7 weather stations as well as 2 global climate models (GCMs) under 2.6 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were applied. GCMs were statistically downscaled by the change factor (CF) approach. The findings illuminated that, based on OTCI, December, January, February, and March were regarded as the optimal months for the outdoor tourism activities. Nevertheless, for the concerned months, the range of OTCI score in twenty-first century is changing from 2 to - 12 regarding the base period (1980-2010). Mostly, the changes in OTCI score is predicted to occur at March, April, May, October, and November, whereas June would record the least. Moreover, Hajiabad and Kish stations in the North and South of the under-study area would encounter the most and least changes, respectively, in the future.}, }
@article {pmid36312059, year = {2022}, author = {Hossain, B and Shi, G and Ajiang, C and Sarker, MNI and Sohel, MS and Sun, Z and Yang, Q}, title = {Climate change induced human displacement in Bangladesh: Implications on the livelihood of displaced riverine island dwellers and their adaptation strategies.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {964648}, pmid = {36312059}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {In Bangladesh, many people are being displaced in riverine island (char) areas every year due to climate change and its associated natural catastrophes. This study intends to investigate the impact of climate change on internally displaced char people's lives and livelihoods along with local adaptation strategies and hindrances to the coping mechanism. Data have been collected from 280 internally displaced households in two sub-districts. A mixed-method approach has been considered combined with qualitative and quantitative methods. The results disclose that frequent flooding, riverbank erosion, and crop loss are the leading causes for relocation, and social relations are impeded in the new place of residence. Increasing summer and winter temperatures, recurrent flooding, severity of riverbank erosion, and expanding disease outbreaks are also important indicators of climate change identified by displaced people, which are consistent with observed data. This study also reveals that almost all households come across severe livelihood issues like food shortage, unemployment and income loss, and housing and sanitation problems due to the changing climate associated with disasters in the former and present places. In response to this, the displaced people acclimatize applying numerous adaptation strategies in order to boost the livelihood resilience against climate change. However, fragile housing, financial conditions, and lack of own land are still the highest impediments to the sustainability of adaptation. Therefore, along with the government, several organizations should implement a dynamic resettlement project through appropriate scrutiny to eradicate the livelihood complications of internally displaced people.}, }
@article {pmid36311863, year = {2022}, author = {Munuera, J and Burguière, E}, title = {Can we tackle climate change by behavioral hacking of the dopaminergic system?.}, journal = {Frontiers in behavioral neuroscience}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {996955}, pmid = {36311863}, issn = {1662-5153}, abstract = {Climate change is an undeniable fact that will certainly affect millions of people in the following decades. Despite this danger threatening our economies, wellbeing and our lives in general, there is a lack of immediate response at both the institutional and individual level. How can it be that the human brain cannot interpret this threat and act against it to avoid the immense negative consequences that may ensue? Here we argue that this paradox could be explained by the fact that some key brain mechanisms are potentially poorly tuned to take action against a threat that would take full effect only in the long-term. We present neuro-behavioral evidence in favor of this proposal and discuss the role of the dopaminergic (DA) system in learning accurate prediction of the value of an outcome, and its consequences regarding the climate issue. We discuss how this system discounts the value of delayed outcomes and, consequently, does not favor action against the climate crisis. Finally, according to this framework, we suggest that this view may be reconsidered and, on the contrary, that the DA reinforcement learning system could be a powerful ally if adapted to short-term incentives which promote climate-friendly behaviors. Additionally, the DA system interacts with multiple brain systems, in particular those related to higher cognitive functions, which can adjust its functions depending on psychological, social, or other complex contextual information. Thus, we propose several generic action plans that could help to hack these neuro-behavioral processes to promote climate-friendly actions.}, }
@article {pmid36311578, year = {2022}, author = {Sahani, M and Othman, H and Kwan, SC and Juneng, L and Ibrahim, MF and Hod, R and Zaini, ZI and Mustafa, M and Nnafie, I and Ching, LC and Dambul, R and Varkkey, H and Phung, VLH and Mamood, SNH and Karim, N and Abu Bakar, NF and Wahab, MIA and Zulfakar, SS and Rosli, Y}, title = {Impacts of climate change and environmental degradation on children in Malaysia.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {909779}, pmid = {36311578}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Malaysia/epidemiology ; Cross-Over Studies ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change and degradation are increasingly felt in Malaysia. While everyone is vulnerable to these impacts, the health and wellbeing of children are disproportionately affected. We carried out a study composed of two major components. The first component is an environmental epidemiology study comprised of three sub-studies: (i) a global climate model (GCM) simulating specific health-sector climate indices; (ii) a time-series study to estimate the risk of childhood respiratory disease attributable to ambient air pollution; and (iii) a case-crossover study to identify the association between haze and under-five mortality in Malaysia. The GCM found that Malaysia has been experiencing increasing rainfall intensity over the years, leading to increased incidences of other weather-related events. The time-series study revealed that air quality has worsened, while air pollution and haze have been linked to an increased risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases among children. Although no clear association between haze and under-five mortality was found in the case-crossover study, the lag patterns suggested that health effects could be more acute if haze occurred over a longer duration and at a higher intensity. The second component consists of three community surveys on marginalized children conducted (i) among the island community of Pulau Gaya, Sabah; (ii) among the indigenous Temiar tribe in Pos Kuala Mu, Perak; and (iii) among an urban poor community (B40) in PPR Sg. Bonus, Kuala Lumpur. The community surveys are cross-sectional studies employing a socio-ecological approach using a standardized questionnaire. The community surveys revealed how children adapt to climate change and environmental degradation. An integrated model was established that consolidates our overall research processes and demonstrates the crucial interconnections between environmental challenges exacerbated by climate change. It is recommended that Malaysian schools adopt a climate-smart approach to education to instill awareness of the impending climate change and its cascading impact on children's health from early school age.}, }
@article {pmid36311479, year = {2023}, author = {Singh, P and Kaur, S and Baabdullah, AM and Dwivedi, YK and Sharma, S and Sawhney, RS and Das, R}, title = {Is #SDG13 Trending Online? Insights from Climate Change Discussions on Twitter.}, journal = {Information systems frontiers : a journal of research and innovation}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {199-219}, pmid = {36311479}, issn = {1387-3326}, abstract = {Anthropogenic activities over the past few decades have led to increased vulnerability of environmental and ecological stability on this planet. Accelerated climate change is one such subset of the environmental problems that threatens the very existence of humankind in twenty first century. Governments, United Nations (UN) and other humanitarian agencies across the globe have developed and devised strategies for climate action that requires grater public awareness and actions. Social media has played a vital role in information dissemination and raising public awareness of climate change in the digital era. To this aid, an upsurge has been documented in recent times regarding discussions over climate change with #SDG13 (Sustainable Development Goals) at its epicenter. Following the principles of Actor Network Theory (ANT) we analyzed a large volume of Twitter data to understand general citizens' perception and attitude towards climate change. Our findings unveil people's opinion on causes and concerns related to barriers of adopting a more sustainable consumption and lifestyle practice. There is also a growing apathy towards sluggish government actions that makes little difference. People were also found to exchange innovative concepts and measures towards mitigating the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36311062, year = {2022}, author = {Yu, R and Torres, N and Tanner, JD and Kacur, SM and Marigliano, LE and Zumkeller, M and Gilmer, JC and Gambetta, GA and Kurtural, SK}, title = {Adapting wine grape production to climate change through canopy architecture manipulation and irrigation in warm climates.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1015574}, pmid = {36311062}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Grape growing regions are facing constant warming of the growing season temperature as well as limitations on ground water pumping used for irrigating to overcome water deficits. Trellis systems are utilized to optimize grapevine production, physiology, and berry chemistry. This study aimed to compare 6 trellis systems with 3 levels of applied water amounts based on different replacements of crop evapotranspiration (ETc) in two consecutive seasons. The treatments included a vertical shoot position (VSP), two modified VSPs (VSP60 and VSP80), a single high wire (SH), a high quadrilateral (HQ), and a Guyot pruned VSP (GY) combined with 25%, 50%, and 100% ETc water replacement. The SH had greater yields, whereas HQ was slower to reach full production potential. At harvest in both years, the accumulation of anthocyanin derivatives was enhanced in SH, whereas VSPs decreased them. As crown porosity increased (mostly VSPs), berry flavonol concentration and likewise molar % of quercetin in berries increased. Conversely, as leaf area increased, total flavonol concentration and molar % of quercetin decreased, indicating a preferential arrangement of leaf area along the canopy for overexposure of grape berry with VSP types. The irrigation treatments revealed linear trends for components of yield, where greater applied water resulted in larger berry size and likewise greater yield. 25% ETc was able to increase berry anthocyanin and flavonol concentrations. Overall, this study evidenced the efficiency of trellis systems for optimizing production and berry composition in Californian climate, also, the feasibility of using flavonols as the indicator of canopy architecture.}, }
@article {pmid36310807, year = {2022}, author = {Burnham, JP and Betz, F and Lautz, R and Mousavi, E and Martinello, RA and McGain, F and Sherman, JD}, title = {Air exchanges, climate change, and severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): Results from a survey of the Society of Healthcare Epidemiology of America Research Network (SRN).}, journal = {Antimicrobial stewardship &amp; healthcare epidemiology : ASHE}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {e40}, pmid = {36310807}, issn = {2732-494X}, abstract = {In this cross-sectional survey, we assessed knowledge, attitudes and behaviors regarding operating room air-change rates, climate change, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic implications. Climate change and healthcare pollution were considered problematic. Respondents checked air exchange rates for COVID-19 and ∼25% increased them. Respondents had difficulty completing questions concerning hospital heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems.}, }
@article {pmid36310569, year = {2022}, author = {Singh, AB and Kumar, P}, title = {Climate change and allergic diseases: An overview.}, journal = {Frontiers in allergy}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {964987}, pmid = {36310569}, issn = {2673-6101}, abstract = {Climate change has been regarded as a threat to the human species on the earth. Greenhouse gasses are leading to increased temperatures on Earth besides impacting the humanity. These atmospheric conditions have shown to alter the release pattern of pollens and can change the timing and magnitude of pollen release with flowering plants. As pollen is responsible for respiratory allergies in humans, so climate change can adversely affect human health in susceptible individuals. In this review, we highlight the association between climate change, increased prevalence and severity of asthma, and related allergic diseases. Increased air pollution can alter the production of local and regional pollen. This altered pattern depends on bioclimatic parameters. As simulated with a pollen-release model and future bioclimatic data, warmer temperatures lead to an increased pollen count in some specific locations and for longer periods. Thus, anticipation of a future allergic disease burden can help public health agencies in planning to develop strategies in mitigating the unprecedented health challenges expected in future years.}, }
@article {pmid36310501, year = {2023}, author = {Barrere-Cain, R}, title = {Intersectional community-centered climate change curriculum is needed in health professional education.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {388-390}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.14505}, pmid = {36310501}, issn = {1879-3479}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Curriculum ; *Education, Medical, Undergraduate ; }, }
@article {pmid36309276, year = {2023}, author = {Niu, J and Qin, W and Wang, L and Zhang, M and Wu, J and Zhang, Y}, title = {Climate change impact on photovoltaic power potential in China based on CMIP6 models.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {858}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {159776}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159776}, pmid = {36309276}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Solar Energy ; Fossil Fuels ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; China ; }, abstract = {China has the largest worldwide cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity, which is expected to be 1300 GW in 2050. Industrial production, population explosion and fossil fuel combustion would reduce the surface solar radiation that could be received by PV panels. However, it is still a problem to explore the integrated effects of socio-economic and air pollutant emissions on PV power potential in China. In this study, climate change impact on PV power potential in 2023-2100 were assessed using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model, combining Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The validation results with ground-based surface solar radiation measurements collected from 17 China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations showed that the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2-0 (MRI-ESM2-0) attained a better performance with mean correlation coefficients (R), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.85, 35.80 Wm[-2] and 29.37 Wm[-2], respectively. Then, the MRI-ESM2-0 model was selected to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in PV power potential. PV power potential decreased significantly in SSP585 ranging from 192.71 Wm[-2] to 189.96 Wm[-2] in 2023-2100 corresponding to the growing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency. In contrast, if China continues on the path of sustainable and low-carbon development and keeps temperature rise to about 1.5 °C by 2100, PV power potential will increase by 1.36-5.90 Wm[-2]. Meanwhile, the effects of climatological factors on PV power potential were analyzed by Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method. Results indicated that surface solar radiation had the highest contribution of >50 %, and the contribution of aerosols and cloud cover was about 20 %. This study is conducive to the full utilization of solar resources and has important implications for the future formulation of solar energy policy in China.}, }
@article {pmid36308967, year = {2023}, author = {Shen, F and Yang, L and Zhang, L and Guo, M and Huang, H and Zhou, C}, title = {Quantifying the direct effects of long-term dynamic land use intensity on vegetation change and its interacted effects with economic development and climate change in jiangsu, China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {325}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {116562}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116562}, pmid = {36308967}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Economic Development ; Models, Theoretical ; China ; }, abstract = {Vegetation change reflects sensitive responses of ecosystem environment to global climate change as well as land use. It is well known that land use type and its transformation affect vegetation change. However, how the changes in land use intensity (LUI) within different land use types impact vegetation and the interactions with other drivers remain poorly understood. We measured the LUI of Jiangsu Province, China, within the main land use types in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2018 by combining remote sensing-based land use data with representative county scale economic and social indicators. Structural equation models (SEMs) were built to quantify the influences of long term LUI on vegetation change interacting with economic development, climate change and topographical conditions in transformed land, cropland, rural settlements and urbanized land, respectively. Seventy percent of significant vegetation change existed in non-transformed land use types. Although the area with a vegetation greening trend is larger than that with a vegetation browning trend, the vegetation browning areas is prominent in urbanized lands and some croplands in south basins. The constructed SEMs suggested the dominant negative effect of fast economic development regardless of land use types, while LUI played important and different direct and indirect effects on affecting vegetation change significantly interacting with economic development and climate change in different land use types. The LUI increasing led a vegetation greening in cropland, and stronger than climate warming with both positive direct and indirect effects for influencing climate change. The LUI change took negative effects on vegetation change in rural and urban areas, while a positive indirect effect of LUI increasing in urbanized land signaled the positive results of human managements. We then provided some land use-specific suggestions on basin scale for land management in Jiangsu. Our results highlight the necessity of long-term LUI quantification and promote the understanding of its effects on vegetation change interacted with other drivers within different land use types. This can be very helpful for sustainable land use and managements in regions with fast economic development.}, }
@article {pmid36308952, year = {2023}, author = {Xiong, J and Zheng, Y and Zhang, J and Quan, F and Lu, H and Zeng, H}, title = {Impact of climate change on coastal water quality and its interaction with pollution prevention efforts.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {325}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {116557}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116557}, pmid = {36308952}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Water Quality ; Chlorophyll A/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Rivers/chemistry ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Chlorophyll ; Eutrophication ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Nitrogen/analysis ; China ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on nearshore coastal water quality and its interaction with pollution prevention efforts (e.g., the development of green and gray water infrastructure) still lack systematic investigation. This study performed a holistic analysis of the impact of climate change on the salinity and concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll a (Chl.a) in Shenzhen Bay between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, the two most developed megacities in South China, based on three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality modeling. The major study findings were as follows. First, Chl.a was the most sensitive parameter, and its bay-wide average concentration in 2100 was predicted to be approximately 13% and 46% higher than those in 2015 under mild and rapid climate change scenarios, respectively. Second, sea level rise was found to be a major driver of all four water quality parameters, while temperature and radiation mainly influenced Chl.a and precipitation mainly influenced nutrients. Third, water quality responses to climate change were highly heterogeneous over the bay. Even under a mild climate change scenario, the highest location-specific changes (2100 vs. 2015) in salinity and TN, TP and Chl.a concentrations were projected to be approximately 21%, 19%, 25%, and 65%, respectively. Fourth, changes in seasonal variation due to climate change may lead to an enhanced ecological risk of algal blooms. Finally, the effect of reducing TN and TP concentrations by proposed water infrastructure development was found to be significantly weakened (nearly 40% and 20% for TN and TP, respectively, under a mild climate change scenario), while the negative effect (i.e., increase in the Chl.a concentration) was notably accelerated. Regional cooperation is critical for protecting the water quality of the bay, particularly under climate change. The insights obtained in this study are applicable to other coastal water zones around the world with similar socioeconomic backgrounds and climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36308550, year = {2023}, author = {Picornell, A and Smith, M and Rojo, J}, title = {Climate change related phenological decoupling in species belonging to the Betulaceae family.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {67}, number = {1}, pages = {195-209}, pmid = {36308550}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {Postdoctoral stay grant//Universidad de M&#xe1;laga/ ; POSTDOC_21_00056//Consejer&#xed;a de Transformaci&#xf3;n Econ&#xf3;mica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades. Junta de Andaluc&#xed;a/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Seasons ; *Betulaceae ; Betula ; Temperature ; Plant Leaves ; }, abstract = {Betulaceae species are anemophilous, and allergens from their pollen are a major cause of respiratory allergies in temperate areas where they are widely distributed. It is expected that, due to the strong influence of temperature on Betulaceae phenology, global warming will impact both the distribution and phenology of these species during the coming decades. This study examines potential decoupling of flowering and leafing phenophases in Betulaceae species (i.e. Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula and Corylus avellana) over long-term (1951-2015) and as shorter (15-year) periods. Phenological phases for flowering and leaf unfolding of Betulaceae species from the Pan-European Phenology (PEP725) database were examined along with maximum and minimum daily temperature data for the periods September-October-November (SON), December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM). Significant increases in temperature since 1951 have been recorded in the relevant chilling and forcing periods. Both flowering and leaf unfolding phenophases are advancing, but flowering is advancing faster than leaf unfolding. This is increasing the time between phenophases, although analysis of 15-year periods shows that the pattern of change was not constant. The results presented here represent the most comprehensive analysis of flowering and leaf unfolding phenophases of Betulaceae species using the PEP725 database to date. It is expected that these changes to Betulaceae phenology will continue and that global warming-related phenological decoupling will increase plant stress in Betulaceae populations in central Europe.}, }
@article {pmid36308465, year = {2023}, author = {Putra, AR and Yen, JDL and Fournier-Level, A}, title = {Forecasting trait responses in novel environments to aid seed provenancing under climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology resources}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {565-580}, doi = {10.1111/1755-0998.13728}, pmid = {36308465}, issn = {1755-0998}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Seeds ; Phenotype ; Fertility ; Genotype ; }, abstract = {Revegetation projects face the major challenge of sourcing optimal plant material. This is often done with limited information about plant performance and increasingly requires factoring resilience to climate change. Functional traits can be used as quantitative indices of plant performance and guide seed provenancing, but trait values expected under novel conditions are often unknown. To support climate-resilient provenancing efforts, we develop a trait prediction model that integrates the effect of genetic variation with fine-scale temperature variation. We train our model on multiple field plantings of Arabidopsis thaliana and predict two relevant fitness traits-days-to-bolting and fecundity-across the species' European range. Prediction accuracy was high for days-to-bolting and moderate for fecundity, with the majority of trait variation explained by temperature differences between plantings. Projection under future climate predicted a decline in fecundity, although this response was heterogeneous across the range. In response, we identified novel genotypes that could be introduced to genetically offset the fitness decay. Our study highlights the value of predictive models to aid seed provenancing and improve the success of revegetation projects.}, }
@article {pmid36307277, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 climate change conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Journal of medical imaging and radiation sciences}, volume = {53}, number = {4}, pages = {538-540}, doi = {10.1016/j.jmir.2022.10.188}, pmid = {36307277}, issn = {1876-7982}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36306815, year = {2022}, author = {Romanello, M and Di Napoli, C and Drummond, P and Green, C and Kennard, H and Lampard, P and Scamman, D and Arnell, N and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Ford, LB and Belesova, K and Bowen, K and Cai, W and Callaghan, M and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Chambers, J and van Daalen, KR and Dalin, C and Dasandi, N and Dasgupta, S and Davies, M and Dominguez-Salas, P and Dubrow, R and Ebi, KL and Eckelman, M and Ekins, P and Escobar, LE and Georgeson, L and Graham, H and Gunther, SH and Hamilton, I and Hang, Y and Hänninen, R and Hartinger, S and He, K and Hess, JJ and Hsu, SC and Jankin, S and Jamart, L and Jay, O and Kelman, I and Kiesewetter, G and Kinney, P and Kjellstrom, T and Kniveton, D and Lee, JKW and Lemke, B and Liu, Y and Liu, Z and Lott, M and Batista, ML and Lowe, R and MacGuire, F and Sewe, MO and Martinez-Urtaza, J and Maslin, M and McAllister, L and McGushin, A and McMichael, C and Mi, Z and Milner, J and Minor, K and Minx, JC and Mohajeri, N and Moradi-Lakeh, M and Morrissey, K and Munzert, S and Murray, KA and Neville, T and Nilsson, M and Obradovich, N and O'Hare, MB and Oreszczyn, T and Otto, M and Owfi, F and Pearman, O and Rabbaniha, M and Robinson, EJZ and Rocklöv, J and Salas, RN and Semenza, JC and Sherman, JD and Shi, L and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Silbert, G and Sofiev, M and Springmann, M and Stowell, J and Tabatabaei, M and Taylor, J and Triñanes, J and Wagner, F and Wilkinson, P and Winning, M and Yglesias-González, M and Zhang, S and Gong, P and Montgomery, H and Costello, A}, title = {The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {400}, number = {10363}, pages = {1619-1654}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01540-9}, pmid = {36306815}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Fossil Fuels ; Global Health ; Health Policy ; Research Report ; }, }
@article {pmid36306814, year = {2022}, author = {Baxter, L and McGowan, CR and Smiley, S and Palacios, L and Devine, C and Casademont, C}, title = {The relationship between climate change, health, and the humanitarian response.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {400}, number = {10363}, pages = {1561-1563}, pmid = {36306814}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Altruism ; }, }
@article {pmid36306805, year = {2022}, author = {van Daalen, KR and Romanello, M and Rocklöv, J and Semenza, JC and Tonne, C and Markandya, A and Dasandi, N and Jankin, S and Achebak, H and Ballester, J and Bechara, H and Callaghan, MW and Chambers, J and Dasgupta, S and Drummond, P and Farooq, Z and Gasparyan, O and Gonzalez-Reviriego, N and Hamilton, I and Hänninen, R and Kazmierczak, A and Kendrovski, V and Kennard, H and Kiesewetter, G and Lloyd, SJ and Lotto Batista, M and Martinez-Urtaza, J and Milà, C and Minx, JC and Nieuwenhuijsen, M and Palamarchuk, J and Quijal-Zamorano, M and Robinson, EJZ and Scamman, D and Schmoll, O and Sewe, MO and Sjödin, H and Sofiev, M and Solaraju-Murali, B and Springmann, M and Triñanes, J and Anto, JM and Nilsson, M and Lowe, R}, title = {The 2022 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: towards a climate resilient future.}, journal = {The Lancet. Public health}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {e942-e965}, pmid = {36306805}, issn = {2468-2667}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; 205212/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 209734/Z/17/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Health Policy ; Europe ; }, }
@article {pmid36304579, year = {2022}, author = {Guillén, L and Pascacio-Villafán, C and Osorio-Paz, I and Ortega-Casas, R and Enciso-Ortíz, E and Altúzar-Molina, A and Velázquez, O and Aluja, M}, title = {Coping with global warming: Adult thermal thresholds in four pestiferous Anastrepha species determined under experimental laboratory conditions and development/survival times of immatures and adults under natural field conditions.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {991923}, pmid = {36304579}, issn = {1664-042X}, abstract = {Climate change, particularly global warming, is disturbing biological processes in unexpected ways and forcing us to re-study/reanalyze the effects of varying temperatures, among them extreme ones, on insect functional traits such as lifespan and fecundity/fertility. Here we experimentally tested, under both laboratory and field conditions, the effects of an extreme range of temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40, and 45 °C, and the naturally varying conditions experienced in the field), on survivorship/lifespan, fecundity, and fertility of four pestiferous fruit fly species exhibiting contrasting life histories and belonging to two phylogenetic groups within the genus Anastrepha: A. ludens, A. obliqua, A. striata, and A. serpentina. In the field, we also measured the length of the entire life cycle (egg to adult), and in one species (A. ludens), the effect on the latter of the host plant (mango and grapefruit). Under laboratory conditions, none of the adults, independent of species, could survive a single day when exposed to a constant temperature of 45 °C, but A. striata and A. serpentina females/males survived at the highly contrasting temperatures of 5 and 40 °C at least 7 days. Maximum longevity was achieved in all species at 15 °C (375, 225, 175 and 160 days in A. ludens, A. serpentina, A. striata and A. obliqua females, respectively). Anastrepha ludens layed many eggs until late in life (368 days) at 15 °C, but none eclosed. Eclosion was only observed in all species at 20 and 30 °C. Under natural conditions, flies lived ca. 100 days less than in the laboratory at 15 °C, likely due to the physiological cost of dealing with the highly varying environmental patterns over 24 h (minimum and maximum temperatures and relative humidity of ca. 10-40 °C, and 22-100%, respectively). In the case of A. ludens, the immature's developmental time was shorter in mango, but adult survival was longer than in grapefruit. We discuss our results considering the physiological processes regulating the traits measured and tie them to the increasing problem of global warming and its hidden effects on the physiology of insects, as well as the ecological and pest management implications.}, }
@article {pmid36304576, year = {2022}, author = {Mayekar, HV and Ramkumar, DK and Garg, D and Nair, A and Khandelwal, A and Joshi, K and Rajpurohit, S}, title = {Clinal variation as a tool to understand climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {880728}, pmid = {36304576}, issn = {1664-042X}, abstract = {Clines are observable gradients that reflect continuous change in biological traits of species across geographical ranges. Clinal gradients could vary at geographic scales (latitude and altitude). Since clinal variations represent active genomic responses at the population level they (clines) provide an immense power to address questions related to climatic change. With the fast pace of climate change i.e. warming, populations are also likely to exhibit rapid responses; at both the phenotypic and genotypic levels. We seek to understand how clinal variation could be used to anticipate climatic responses using Drosophila, a pervasively used inter-disciplinary model system owing to its molecular repertoire. The genomic information coupled with the phenotypic variation greatly facilitates our understanding of the Drosophilidae response to climate change. We discuss traits associated with clinal variation at the phenotypic level as well as their underlying genetic regulators. Given prevailing climatic conditions and future projections for climate change, clines could emerge as monitoring tools to track the cross-talk between climatic variables and organisms.}, }
@article {pmid36302874, year = {2022}, author = {Monserrat, M and Comeau, S and Verdura, J and Alliouane, S and Spennato, G and Priouzeau, F and Romero, G and Mangialajo, L}, title = {Climate change and species facilitation affect the recruitment of macroalgal marine forests.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {18103}, pmid = {36302874}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {789059//European Maritime and Fisheries Fund/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Seaweed/physiology ; *Rhodophyta ; Forests ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Marine forests are shrinking globally due to several anthropogenic impacts including climate change. Forest-forming macroalgae, such as Cystoseira s.l. species, can be particularly sensitive to environmental conditions (e.g. temperature increase, pollution or sedimentation), especially during early life stages. However, not much is known about their response to the interactive effects of ocean warming (OW) and acidification (OA). These drivers can also affect the performance and survival of crustose coralline algae, which are associated understory species likely playing a role in the recruitment of later successional species such as forest-forming macroalgae. We tested the interactive effects of elevated temperature, low pH and species facilitation on the recruitment of Cystoseira compressa. We demonstrate that the interactive effects of OW and OA negatively affect the recruitment of C. compressa and its associated coralline algae Neogoniolithon brassica-florida. The density of recruits was lower under the combinations OW and OA, while the size was negatively affected by the temperature increase but positively affected by the low pH. The results from this study show that the interactive effects of climate change and the presence of crustose coralline algae can have a negative impact on the recruitment of Cystoseira s.l. species. While new restoration techniques recently opened the door to marine forest restoration, our results show that the interactions of multiple drivers and species interactions have to be considered to achieve long-term population sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid36300560, year = {2023}, author = {Guo, X and Mao, X and Yu, W and Xiao, L and Wang, M and Zhang, S and Zheng, J and Zhou, H and Luo, L and Chang, J and Shi, Z and Luo, Z}, title = {A field incubation approach to evaluate the depth dependence of soil biogeochemical responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {909-920}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16505}, pmid = {36300560}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {32171639//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41930754//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2021YFE0114500//National Key Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Soil ; *Climate Change ; Soil Microbiology ; Respiration ; Carbon ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Soil biogeochemical processes may present depth-dependent responses to climate change, due to vertical environmental gradients (e.g., thermal and moisture regimes, and the quantity and quality of soil organic matter) along soil profile. However, it is a grand challenge to distinguish such depth dependence under field conditions. Here we present an innovative, cost-effective and simple approach of field incubation of intact soil cores to explore such depth dependence. The approach adopts field incubation of two sets of intact soil cores: one incubated right-side up (i.e., non-inverted), and another upside down (i.e., inverted). This inversion keeps soil intact but changes the depth of the soil layer of same depth origin. Combining reciprocal translocation experiments to generate natural climate shift, we applied this incubation approach along a 2200 m elevational mountainous transect in southeast Tibetan Plateau. We measured soil respiration (Rs) from non-inverted and inverted cores of 1 m deep, respectively, which were exchanged among and incubated at different elevations. The results indicated that Rs responds significantly (p < .05) to translocation-induced climate shifts, but this response is depth-independent. As the incubation proceeds, Rs from both non-inverted and inverted cores become more sensitive to climate shifts, indicating higher vulnerability of persistent soil organic matter (SOM) to climate change than labile components, if labile substrates are assumed to be depleted with the proceeding of incubation. These results show in situ evidence that whole-profile SOM mineralization is sensitive to climate change regardless of the depth location. Together with measurements of vertical physiochemical conditions, the inversion experiment can serve as an experimental platform to elucidate the depth dependence of the response of soil biogeochemical processes to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36300251, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Malaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World Wealthy Nations Must Step up Support for Africa and Vulnerable Countries in Addressing Past, Present and Future Impacts of Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of health policy and management}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {1983-1985}, pmid = {36300251}, issn = {2322-5939}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36299781, year = {2022}, author = {Večeřová, K and Oravec, M and Puranik, S and Findurová, H and Veselá, B and Opoku, E and Ofori-Amanfo, KK and Klem, K and Urban, O and Sahu, PP}, title = {Single and interactive effects of variables associated with climate change on wheat metabolome.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1002561}, pmid = {36299781}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {One of the key challenges linked with future food and nutritional security is to evaluate the interactive effect of climate variables on plants' growth, fitness, and yield parameters. These interactions may lead to unique shifts in the morphological, physiological, gene expression, or metabolite accumulation patterns, leading to an adaptation response that is specific to future climate scenarios. To understand such changes, we exposed spring wheat to 7 regimes (3 single and 4 combined climate treatments) composed of elevated temperature, the enhanced concentration of CO2, and progressive drought stress corresponding to the predicted climate of the year 2100. The physiological and metabolic responses were then compared with the current climate represented by the year 2020. We found that the elevated CO2 (eC) mitigated some of the effects of elevated temperature (eT) on physiological performance and metabolism. The metabolite profiling of leaves revealed 44 key metabolites, including saccharides, amino acids, and phenolics, accumulating contrastingly under individual regimes. These metabolites belong to the central metabolic pathways that are essential for cellular energy, production of biosynthetic pathways precursors, and oxidative balance. The interaction of eC alleviated the negative effect of eT possibly by maintaining the rate of carbon fixation and accumulation of key metabolites and intermediates linked with the Krebs cycle and synthesis of phenolics. Our study for the first time revealed the influence of a specific climate factor on the accumulation of metabolic compounds in wheat. The current work could assist in the understanding and development of climate resilient wheat by utilizing the identified metabolites as breeding targets for food and nutritional security.}, }
@article {pmid36299524, year = {2022}, author = {Narvaez, G and Giraldo, LF and Bressan, M and Pantoja, A}, title = {The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power potential in Southwestern Colombia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {e11122}, pmid = {36299524}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {In this paper, we present the first study of the long-term climate-change impact on photovoltaic power potential in Nariño, Colombia. In this region, more than half of the territory does not have a constant electricity supply, but it has great potential for solutions with renewable energy sources. Based on the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), we assess the change in photovoltaic power potential towards the end of this century, considering two climate change scenarios, one optimistic and the other pessimistic. Our results suggest that changes in photovoltaic power potential, by the end of the century, will have a maximum decrease of around 2.49% in the central zone of Nariño, with some non-affected areas, and a maximum increase of 2.52% on the southeastern side with respect to the pessimistic climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid36295024, year = {2022}, author = {Diédhiou, I and Ramírez-Tobias, HM and Fortanelli-Martinez, J and Flores-Ramírez, R}, title = {Maize Intercropping in the Traditional "Milpa" System. Physiological, Morphological, and Agronomical Parameters under Induced Warming: Evidence of related Effect of Climate Change in San Luis Potosí (Mexico).}, journal = {Life (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {36295024}, issn = {2075-1729}, support = {305045//Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog&#xed;a/ ; 10-47.47//FONDO DE APOYO A LA INVESTIGACI&#xd3;N-UASLP- FAI/ ; }, abstract = {Warmer temperatures predicted as a result of climate change will have an impact on milpa. An experiment was carried out with induced passive heat with the objective of simulating the increase in temperature on the physiological, morphological, and yield parameters of milpa from different climates of San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Two different environments, Open-top chambers (OTC) and control, and three milpas, from warm-dry, temperate, and hot and humid climates, were studied. A total of 12 experimental units of 13.13 m[2] were used in the random design, with a factorial arrangement of 2 × 3 and two replications. Abiotic variables (minimum, maximum, and mean daily temperatures and accumulated heat units) were determined and compared between the two environments and confirmed that the OTC increased the abiotic variables. The growth and development parameters increased under the warming effect. Furthermore, the milpa from hot and humid climate was the least affected. In contrast, the warming considerably delayed yield parameters. The squash suffered the most, while the bean benefited the most. The warming affected the chlorophyll fluorescence and gas exchange differently for each crop. However, at an early stage, the maximum photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm) and non-photochemical quenching (qN) for bean and maize were reduced, while at a late stage, they were Fv/Fm, photochemical quenching (qP), and qN for maize; stomatal conductance and transpiration rate of the squash were improved under the warming treatments. In conclusion, the warming delayed the yield and photosynthetic parameters, while growth and development benefited. The milpa systems were differently affected by warming.}, }
@article {pmid36294243, year = {2022}, author = {Jabakhanji, SB and Arnold, SR and Aunan, K and Chersich, MF and Jakobsson, K and McGushin, A and Kelly, I and Roche, N and Stauffer, A and Stanistreet, D}, title = {Public Health Measures to Address the Impact of Climate Change on Population Health-Proceedings from a Stakeholder Workshop.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {36294243}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {101003966//European Union/ ; NE/T013672/1//UK Research and Innovation/ ; 209734/Z/17/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 2019-01548//Swedish Research Council for Health Working Life and Welfare/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Public Health ; Policy Making ; *Population Health ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization identified climate change as the 21st century's biggest health threat. This study aimed to identify the current knowledge base, evidence gaps, and implications for climate action and health policymaking to address the health impact of climate change, including in the most underserved groups.<br><br>METHODS: The Horizon-funded project ENBEL ('Enhancing Belmont Research Action to support EU policy making on climate change and health') organised a workshop at the 2021-European Public Health conference. Following presentations of mitigation and adaptation strategies, seven international researchers and public health experts participated in a panel discussion linking climate change and health. Two researchers transcribed and thematically analysed the panel discussion recording.<br><br>RESULTS: Four themes were identified: (1) 'Evidence is key' in leading the climate debate, (2) the need for 'messaging about health for policymaking and behaviour change' including health co-benefits of climate action, (3) existing 'inequalities between and within countries', and (4) 'insufficient resources and funding' to implement national health adaptation plans and facilitate evidence generation and climate action, particularly in vulnerable populations.<br><br>CONCLUSION: More capacity is needed to monitor health effects and inequities, evaluate adaptation and mitigation interventions, address current under-representations of low- or middle-income countries, and translate research into effective policymaking.}, }
@article {pmid36294235, year = {2022}, author = {Sargent, K and Mollard, J and Henley, SF and Bollasina, MA}, title = {Predicting Transmission Suitability of Mosquito-Borne Diseases under Climate Change to Underpin Decision Making.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {36294235}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {NE/N006038/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Child ; Humans ; Climate Change ; *Zika Virus ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; Decision Making ; *Zika Virus Infection ; Mosquito Vectors ; *Aedes ; }, abstract = {The risk of the mosquito-borne diseases malaria, dengue fever and Zika virus is expected to shift both temporally and spatially under climate change. As climate change projections continue to improve, our ability to predict these shifts is also enhanced. This paper predicts transmission suitability for these mosquito-borne diseases, which are three of the most significant, using the most up-to-date climate change projections. Using a mechanistic methodology, areas that are newly suitable and those where people are most at risk of transmission under the best- and worst-case climate change scenarios have been identified. The results show that although transmission suitability is expected to decrease overall for malaria, some areas will become newly suitable, putting naïve populations at risk. In contrast, transmission suitability for dengue fever and Zika virus is expected to increase both in duration and geographical extent. Although transmission suitability is expected to increase in temperate zones for a few months of the year, suitability remains focused in the tropics. The highest transmission suitability in tropical regions is likely to exacerbate the intense existing vulnerability of these populations, especially children, to the multiple consequences of climate change, and their severe lack of resources and agency to cope with these impacts and pressures. As these changes in transmission suitability are amplified under the worst-case climate change scenario, this paper makes the case in support of enhanced and more urgent efforts to mitigate climate change than has been achieved to date. By presenting consistent data on the climate-driven spread of multiple mosquito-borne diseases, our work provides more holistic information to underpin prevention and control planning and decision making at national and regional levels.}, }
@article {pmid36294229, year = {2022}, author = {Vo, MV and Ebi, KL and Busch Isaksen, TM and Hess, JJ and Errett, NA}, title = {Addressing Capacity Constraints of Rural Local Health Departments to Support Climate Change Adaptation: Action Is Needed Now.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {36294229}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {P30 ES007033/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {United States ; Humans ; *Local Government ; *Climate Change ; Rural Population ; Public Health ; Rural Health ; }, abstract = {Looming climate change health impacts among rural communities will require a robust health system response. To reduce health inequities and promote climate justice, rural local health departments (LHDs) must be adequately resourced and supported to engage in climate change mitigation and adaptation policy and program development and implementation. In the United States, small local tax bases, overreliance on revenue from fee-based services, and limited federal funding to support climate change and health programming, have left rural LHDs with limited and inflexible human, financial, and political capital to support engagement in local climate change activities. Because of the urgent demands stemming from climate change, additional investments and supports are needed to rapidly build the capacity and capability of rural LHDs. Federal and state approaches to public health funding should consider the unique climate change and health risks of rural communities. Further, cross-jurisdictional shared service arrangements and state-level support to build rural LHDs' technical capacity, and research on local impacts and culturally appropriate solutions, must be prioritized.}, }
@article {pmid36294154, year = {2022}, author = {Karuga, FF and Szmyd, B and Petroniec, K and Walter, A and Pawełczyk, A and Sochal, M and Białasiewicz, P and Strzelecki, D and Respondek-Liberska, M and Tadros-Zins, M and Gabryelska, A}, title = {The Causes and Role of Antinatalism in Poland in the Context of Climate Change, Obstetric Care, and Mental Health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {36294154}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Child ; Pregnancy ; Humans ; Female ; *Mental Health ; Poland/epidemiology ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Climate Change ; Pandemics ; Anxiety/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Antinatalism is an umbrella term for numerous moral dilemmas associated with procreation. In the past few years, the deterioration of environmental conditions, social difficulties, global worsening of people's mental health, and pandemics have induced discussion about antinatalism. Therefore, we aimed to characterize antinatalists in the Polish population in terms of the frequency and description of the main reasons behind this phenomenon. The cross-sectional study was performed in the Polish population. An online, four-part survey was performed between 19 and 25 January 2022. The study group comprised 1240 respondents. Antinatalists (n = 472, 38%) were defined as people who do not have children and want to be childless in the future, whereas pronatalists (n = 768, 62%) consisted of people who want to have offspring in the future and/or already have children. The opinion that climate change is a significant reason not to have a child appeared twice as often among antinatalists. Additionally, the performed binary logistic regression model highlighted the importance of the fear of climate change as an independent factor facilitating an antinatalistic attitude. Regarding females, the following factors discouraging them from having a child were observed: fear of child's congenital diseases, pregnancy complications, dissatisfaction with medical services, and fear of exacerbation of maternal chronic diseases. Anxiety, depression, and stress were not found to be statistically different between pro- and antinatalist groups. However, further analysis revealed that female antinatalists were significantly more depressive and anxious. Our study helps us to understand why, as mentioned beforehand, around 38% of respondents prefer to stay childless. In conclusion, antinatalism views have become relatively prevalent in society, and its reasons include environmental antinatalism and medical factors, including depression and anxiety. However, better access to medical services and changes in climate politics were not found to be significant factors in encouraging society to decide to have offspring.}, }
@article {pmid36294010, year = {2022}, author = {Bongioanni, P and Del Carratore, R and Dolciotti, C and Diana, A and Buizza, R}, title = {Effects of Global Warming on Patients with Dementia, Motor Neuron or Parkinson's Diseases: A Comparison among Cortical and Subcortical Disorders.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {36294010}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Humans ; *Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis ; *Parkinson Disease/epidemiology ; Global Warming ; Motor Neurons ; *Alzheimer Disease ; *Motor Neuron Disease ; }, abstract = {Exposure to global warming can be dangerous for health and can lead to an increase in the prevalence of neurological diseases worldwide. Such an effect is more evident in populations that are less prepared to cope with enhanced environmental temperatures. In this work, we extend our previous research on the link between climate change and Parkinson's disease (PD) to also include Alzheimer's Disease and other Dementias (AD/D) and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis/Motor Neuron Diseases (ALS/MND). One hundred and eighty-four world countries were clustered into four groups according to their climate indices (warming and annual average temperature). Variations between 1990 and 2016 in the diseases' indices (prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years) and climate indices for the four clusters were analyzed. Unlike our previous work on PD, we did not find any significant correlation between warming and epidemiological indices for AD/D and ALS/MND patients. A significantly lower increment in prevalence in countries with higher temperatures was found for ALS/MND patients. It can be argued that the discordant findings between AD/D or ALS/MND and PD might be related to the different features of the neuronal types involved and the pathophysiology of thermoregulation. The neurons of AD/D and ALS/MND patients are less vulnerable to heat-related degeneration effects than PD patients. PD patients' substantia nigra pars compacta (SNpc), which are constitutively frailer due to their morphology and function, fall down under an overwhelming oxidative stress caused by climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid36293988, year = {2022}, author = {Li, K and Cai, B and Wang, Z}, title = {Accessing the Climate Change Impacts in China through a Literature Mapping.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {36293988}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {42077060//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 72074154//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; China/epidemiology ; *Ecosystem ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {In the 21st century, carbon dioxide emissions have led to adverse climate changes; meanwhile, the impact of climate change has imposed challenges worldwide, particularly in developing countries, and China is one of the most affected countries. Assessing the impact of climate change requires handling a large amount of data in the literature comprehensively. In this study, a text-based classification method and literature mapping were used to process the massive literature and map it according to its location. A total of 39,339 Chinese academic studies and 36,584 Chinese master's and doctoral theses, from 2000 to 2022, with evidence of the impact of climate change were extracted from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure database. Our results show that the literature on climate change impacts has exploded during the last decades. This indicates that increasing attention to the intensified impact of climate change in China has been paid. More importantly, by mapping the geolocation of the literature into spatial grid data, our results show that over 36.09% of the land area shows clear evidence of climate change. Those areas contribute to 89.29% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and comprise 85.06% of the population in China. Furthermore, the studies we collected on the climate change impacts showed a huge spatial heterogeneity. The hotspot areas of research were generally located in developed regions, such as the BTH urban agglomeration and Yangtze River Economic Zone, major agricultural production areas such as Shandong and Henan, and ecologically fragile regions including Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. Considering the imbalance spatially of the evidence of climate change can help in a better understanding of the challenges in China imposed by climate change. Appraising the evidence of climate change is of great significance for adapting to climate change, which is closely related to the natural ecosystem services and human health. This study will provide policy implications for coping with climatic events and guide future research.}, }
@article {pmid36292890, year = {2022}, author = {Wu, R and Guan, JY and Wu, JG and Ju, XF and An, QH and Zheng, JH}, title = {Predictions Based on Different Climate Change Scenarios: The Habitat of Typical Locust Species Is Shrinking in Kazakhstan and Xinjiang, China.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {36292890}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2020XS04//Xinjiang Tianshan Cedar Project/ ; 202105140008//Xinjiang Grassland Biohazard Remote Sensing Monitoring Project/ ; 2022101140001//Xinjiang Grassland Pest Disaster Census Project/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change, especially climate extremes, can increase the uncertainty of locust outbreaks. The Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus (Linnaeus, 1758)), Asian migratory locust (Locusta migratoria migratoria Linnaeus, 1758), and Siberian locust (Gomphocerus sibiricus (Linnaeus, 1767)) are common pests widely distributed in the semidesert grasslands of Central Asia and its surrounding regions. Predicting the geographic distribution changes and future habitats of locusts in the context of climate warming is essential to effectively prevent large and sudden locust outbreaks. In this study, the optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, employing a combination of climatic, soil, and topographic factors, was used to predict the potential fitness areas of typical locusts in the 2030s and 2050s, assuming four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. Modeling results showed that the mean area under the curve (AUC) and true statistical skill (TSS) of the MaxEnt model reached 0.933 and 0.7651, respectively, indicating that the model exhibited good prediction performance. Our results showed that soil surface sand content, slope, mean precipitation during the hottest season, and precipitation seasonality were the key environmental variables affecting locust distribution in the region. The three locust species were mainly distributed in the upstream region of the Irtysh River, the Alatao Mountain region, the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, around Sayram Lake, the eastern part of the Alakol Lake region, the Tekes River region, the western part of Ulungur Lake, the Ili River, and the upstream region of the Tarim River. According to several climate projections, the area of potential habitat for the three most common locust species will decrease by 3.9 × 10[4]-4.6 × 10[4] km[2] by the 2030s and by 6.4 × 10[4]-10.6 × 10[4] km[2] by the 2050s. As the climate becomes more extreme, the suitable area will shrink, but the highly suitable area will expand; thus, the risk of infestation should be taken seriously. Our study present a timely investigation to add to extensive literature currently appearing regarding the myriad ways climate change may affect species. While this naturally details a limited range of taxa, methods and potential impacts may be more broadly applicable to other locust species.}, }
@article {pmid36290328, year = {2022}, author = {Borges, FO and Lopes, VM and Amorim, A and Santos, CF and Costa, PR and Rosa, R}, title = {Projecting Future Climate Change-Mediated Impacts in Three Paralytic Shellfish Toxins-Producing Dinoflagellate Species.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {36290328}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {PTDC/BIA-BMA/28317/2017//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; UIDB/04292/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; LA/P/0069/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; SFRH/BD/147294/2019//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; PTDC/CTA-AMB/30226/2017//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; LISBOA-01-0145-FEDER-031265//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; }, abstract = {Toxin-producing microalgae present a significant environmental risk for ecosystems and human societies when they reach concentrations that affect other aquatic organisms or human health. Harmful algal blooms (HAB) have been linked to mass wildlife die-offs and human food poisoning episodes, and climate change has the potential to alter the frequency, magnitude, and geographical extent of such events. Thus, a framework of species distribution models (SDMs), employing MaxEnt modeling, was used to project changes in habitat suitability and distribution of three key paralytic shellfish toxin (PST)-producing dinoflagellate species (i.e., Alexandrium catenella, A. minutum, and Gymnodinium catenatum), up to 2050 and 2100, across four representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5; CMIP5). Despite slightly different responses at the regional level, the global habitat suitability has decreased for all the species, leading to an overall contraction in their tropical and sub-tropical ranges, while considerable expansions are projected in higher latitudes, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting poleward distributional shifts. Such trends were exacerbated with increasing RCP severity. Yet, further research is required, with a greater assemblage of environmental predictors and improved occurrence datasets, to gain a more holistic understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on PST-producing species.}, }
@article {pmid36290117, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, XL and Alvarez, F and Whiting, MJ and Qin, XD and Chen, ZN and Wu, ZJ}, title = {Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {12}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {36290117}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {32160131//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 31760623//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; AD21220058//Guangxi Natural Science Foundation, China/ ; }, abstract = {Crocodile lizards (Shinisaurus crocodilurus) are an endangered, 'living fossil' reptile from a monophyletic family and therefore, a high priority for conservation. We constructed climatic models to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of crocodile lizards for the period 2000 to 2100 and determined the key environmental factors that affect the dispersal of this endangered species. For the construction of climatic models, we used 985 presence-only data points and 6 predictor variables which showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.974). The three top-ranked factors predicting crocodile lizard distribution were precipitation of the wettest month (bio13, 37.1%), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19, 17.9%), and temperature seasonality (bio4, 14.3%). Crocodile lizards were, just as they are now, widely distributed in the north of Guangdong Province in China and Quảng Ninh Province in Vietnam at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Since the LGM, there has been an increase in suitable habitats, particularly in east-central Guangxi Province, China. Under future global warming scenarios, the potential habitat for crocodile lizards is expected to decrease significantly in the next 100 years. Under the most optimistic scenario, only 7.35% to 6.54% of suitable habitat will remain, and under the worst climatic scenario, only 8.34% to 0.86% of suitable habitat will remain. Models for no dispersal and limited dispersal showed that all crocodile lizards would lose habitat as temperatures increase. Our work contributes to an increased understanding of the current and future spatial distribution of the species, supporting practical management and conservation plans.}, }
@article {pmid36289386, year = {2022}, author = {Rising, J and Tedesco, M and Piontek, F and Stainforth, DA}, title = {The missing risks of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {610}, number = {7933}, pages = {643-651}, pmid = {36289386}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Uncertainty ; Social Sciences ; *Risk Assessment ; Natural Science Disciplines ; *Climate Models ; *Models, Economic ; Policy Making ; }, abstract = {The risks of climate change are enormous, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions to billions of people. The economic consequences of many of the complex risks associated with climate change cannot, however, currently be quantified. Here we argue that these unquantified, poorly understood and often deeply uncertain risks can and should be included in economic evaluations and decision-making processes. We present an overview of these unquantified risks and an ontology of them founded on the reasons behind their lack of robust evaluation. These consist of risks missing owing to delays in sharing knowledge and expertise across disciplines, spatial and temporal variations of climate impacts, feedbacks and interactions between risks, deep uncertainty in our knowledge, and currently unidentified risks. We highlight collaboration needs within and between the natural and social science communities to address these gaps. We also provide an approach for integrating assessments or speculations of these risks in a way that accounts for interdependencies, avoids double counting and makes assumptions clear. Multiple paths exist for engaging with these missing risks, with both model-based quantification and non-model-based qualitative assessments playing crucial roles. A wide range of climate impacts are understudied or challenging to quantify, and are missing from current evaluations of the climate risks to lives and livelihoods. Strong interdisciplinary collaboration and deeper engagement with uncertainty is needed to properly inform policymakers and the public about climate risks.}, }
@article {pmid36289376, year = {2022}, author = {Vargas-Parada, L}, title = {Why climate change matters for pandemic preparedness.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {610}, number = {7933}, pages = {S45}, pmid = {36289376}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Pandemics/prevention &amp; control ; *Public Health/trends ; *Disaster Planning ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid36289332, year = {2022}, author = {Jørgensen, LB and Ørsted, M and Malte, H and Wang, T and Overgaard, J}, title = {Extreme escalation of heat failure rates in ectotherms with global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {611}, number = {7934}, pages = {93-98}, pmid = {36289332}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Global Warming/mortality ; *Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; *Body Temperature Regulation ; Aging ; Growth ; Homeostasis ; *Extreme Heat ; Animals ; }, abstract = {Temperature affects the rate of all biochemical processes in ectotherms[1,2] and is therefore critical for determining their current and future distribution under global climate change[3-5]. Here we show that the rate of biological processes maintaining growth, homeostasis and ageing in the permissive temperature range increases by 7% per degree Celsius (median activation energy Ea = 0.48 eV from 1,351 rates across 314 species). By contrast, the processes underlying heat failure rate within the stressful temperature range are extremely temperature sensitive, such that heat failure increases by more than 100% per degree Celsius across a broad range of taxa (median Ea = 6.13 eV from 123 rates across 112 species). The extreme thermal sensitivity of heat failure rates implies that the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves can exacerbate heat mortality for many ectothermic species with severe and disproportionate consequences. Combining the extreme thermal sensitivities with projected increases in maximum temperatures globally[6], we predict that moderate warming scenarios can increase heat failure rates by 774% (terrestrial) and 180% (aquatic) by 2100. This finding suggests that we are likely to underestimate the potential impact of even a modest global warming scenario.}, }
@article {pmid36289260, year = {2022}, author = {Di Lorenzo, T and Reboleira, ASPS}, title = {Thermal acclimation and metabolic scaling of a groundwater asellid in the climate change scenario.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {17938}, pmid = {36289260}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Temperature ; Biodiversity ; Acclimatization ; *Groundwater ; Oxygen ; }, abstract = {Metabolic rate has long been used in animal adaptation and performance studies, and individual oxygen consumption is used as proxy of metabolic rate. Stygofauna are organisms adapted to groundwater with presumably lower metabolic rates than their surface relatives. How stygofauna will cope with global temperature increase remains unpredictable. We studied the thermal acclimation and metabolic scaling with body mass of a stygobitic crustacean, Proasellus lusitanicus, in the climate change scenario. We measured oxygen consumption rates in a thermal ramp-up experiment over four assay temperatures and tested two hypotheses: (i) P. lusitanicus exhibits narrow thermal plasticity, inadequate for coping with a fast-increasing thermal regime; and (ii) oxygen consumption rates scale with the body mass by a factor close to 0.75, as commonly observed in other animals. Our results show that P. lusitanicus has low thermal plasticity in a fast-increasing thermal regime. Our data also suggest that oxygen consumption rates of this species do not follow mass-dependent scaling, potentially representing a new trait of metabolic optimization in groundwater habitats, which are often limited in food and oxygen. Species with limited dispersal capacities and rigid metabolic guilds face extinction risk due to climate change and omitting groundwater ecosystems from climate change agendas emphasizes the unprotected status of stygofauna.}, }
@article {pmid36287023, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Palliative medicine}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {7-9}, pmid = {36287023}, issn = {1477-030X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36286557, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {142}, number = {15}, pages = {}, doi = {10.4045/tidsskr.22.0605}, pmid = {36286557}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36285943, year = {2022}, author = {Bielawska-Batorowicz, E and Zagaj, K and Kossakowska, K}, title = {Reproductive Intentions Affected by Perceptions of Climate Change and Attitudes toward Death.}, journal = {Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {36285943}, issn = {2076-328X}, abstract = {Adverse climate change poses a threat to the health of pregnant women and unborn children and has a negative impact on the quality of life. Additionally, individuals with a high awareness of the consequences of climate change may be accompanied by a fear of the inevitable end, such as a fear of death. This, in turn, may discourage planning for offspring. Thus, both the perception of climate change and fear of death can have implications for reproductive intentions. Only a few studies to date indicate that concerns about climate change, especially when combined with attitudes towards death, may influence the formation of attitudes and reproductive plans. Thus, current research is aimed at looking at reproductive intentions from the perspective of both climate change concerns and the fear of death. This study was conducted from December 2020 to February 2021. A total of 177 childless males and females (58.8%) took part in the study. The Death Anxiety and Fascination Scale (DAFS) and Climate Change Perception Questionnaire (CCPQ) were completed online. Overall, 63.8% of respondents displayed a positive reproductive intention. Multivariable logistic regression analysis found that, in addition to the young age of respondents, the likelihood of positive reproductive intentions increases with death anxiety and decreases with death fascination and with climate health concerns. The results indicate that both climate change concerns and the fear of death are relevant to reproductive plans-positive reproductive intentions increase with death anxiety and decrease with death fascination and with climate health concerns. The results fill the gap in the existing research on predictors of reproductive intentions and can be used for further scientific exploration and practical activities addressing the issues of the determinants of decisions about having children. The individual consequences of climate change are clearly taken into account in the context of offspring planning and, therefore, should be considered in the design of social and environmental actions.}, }
@article {pmid36284934, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and James Kigera,  and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Health science reports}, volume = {5}, number = {6}, pages = {e861}, pmid = {36284934}, issn = {2398-8835}, }
@article {pmid36284917, year = {2022}, author = {Laybourn-Langton, L and Muhia, J and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Current developments in nutrition}, volume = {6}, number = {10}, pages = {nzac147}, pmid = {36284917}, issn = {2475-2991}, }
@article {pmid36284434, year = {2022}, author = {Yorgancioğlu, A and Andersen, ZJ and Hansen, K and Usmani, O and Pearce, N and Mortimer, K and Ndikum, AE}, title = {Asthma, Climate Change and Planetary Health.}, journal = {The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {86-87}, pmid = {36284434}, issn = {1815-7920}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Asthma/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36284044, year = {2023}, author = {Guo, Q and He, Z and Wang, Z}, title = {Long-term projection of future climate change over the twenty-first century in the Sahara region in Africa under four Shared Socio-Economic Pathways scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {9}, pages = {22319-22329}, pmid = {36284044}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {41572150//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; J18RA196//Project of Shandong Province Higher Educational Science and Technology Program/ ; SKLLQG1907//State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; Africa, Northern ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects air quality and people's health. Therefore, accurate prediction of future climate change is of great significance for human beings to better adapt and mitigate climate change. Using the projection simulation dataset of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, the future climate change in the Sahara region under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) is analyzed. The results show that annual and seasonal average surface air temperature in the Sahara region will continue to rise throughout the twenty-first century relative to the baseline period 1995-2014 if greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations continue increasing. Under the four SSPs scenarios, the warming in the Sahara region will be more pronounced than in the whole world through the twenty-first century. The annual maximum temperature (TX), the annual minimum temperature (TN), the annual count of days with maximum temperature above 35 °C (TX 35), and the annual count of days with maximum temperature above 40 °C (TX 40) in the Sahara region will continue to increase until the end of the twenty-first century under the four scenarios. The results of climate change prediction can provide scientific reference for climate policy-making.}, }
@article {pmid36283699, year = {2022}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Zhang, Y and McGushin, A and Trueck, S and Linnenluecke, MK and Bambrick, H and Capon, AG and Vardoulakis, S and Green, D and Malik, A and Jay, O and Heenan, M and Hanigan, IC and Friel, S and Stevenson, M and Johnston, FH and McMichael, C and Charlson, F and Woodward, AJ and Romanello, MB}, title = {The 2022 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australia unprepared and paying the price.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {217}, number = {9}, pages = {439-458}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.51742}, pmid = {36283699}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Australia ; *Renewable Energy ; Health Planning ; }, abstract = {The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020 and 2021. It examines five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the fifth year of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Within just two years, Australia has experienced two unprecedented national catastrophes - the 2019-2020 summer heatwaves and bushfires and the 2021-2022 torrential rains and flooding. Such events are costing lives and displacing tens of thousands of people. Further, our analysis shows that there are clear signs that Australia's health emergency management capacity substantially decreased in 2021. We find some signs of progress with respect to health and climate change. The states continue to lead the way in health and climate change adaptation planning, with the Victorian plan being published in early 2022. At the national level, we note progress in health and climate change research funding by the National Health and Medical Research Council. We now also see an acceleration in the uptake of electric vehicles and continued uptake of and employment in renewable energy. However, we also find Australia's transition to renewables and zero carbon remains unacceptably slow, and the Australian Government's continuing failure to produce a national climate change and health adaptation plan places the health and lives of Australians at unnecessary risk today, which does not bode well for the future.}, }
@article {pmid36281967, year = {2022}, author = {Lozano, M}, title = {Climate change: A call for action, even for Vox Sanguinis.}, journal = {Vox sanguinis}, volume = {117}, number = {11}, pages = {1249-1250}, doi = {10.1111/vox.13369}, pmid = {36281967}, issn = {1423-0410}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36280596, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, F and Lin, N and Kunreuther, H}, title = {Benefits of and strategies to update premium rates in the US National Flood Insurance Program under climate change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {43}, number = {8}, pages = {1627-1640}, doi = {10.1111/risa.14048}, pmid = {36280596}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {The United States' National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has accumulated over $20 billion in debt to the US Treasury since 2005, partly due to discounted premiums on homes in flood-prone areas. To address this issue, FEMA introduced Risk Rating 2.0 in October 2021, which is able to assess and charge more accurate and equitable rates to homeowners. However, rates must be continually updated to account for increasing flood damage caused by sea level rise and more intense hurricanes due to climate change. This study proposes a strategy to adopt updated premium rates that account for climate change effects and address affordability and risk mitigation issues with a means-tested voucher program. The strategy is tested in a coastal community, Ortley Beach, NJ, by projecting its future flood risk under sea level rise and storm intensification. Compared with using static rates for all the properties in Ortley Beach, the proposed strategy is shown to reduce the NFIP's potential losses to the community from 2020 to 2050 by half (from $4.6 million to $2.3 million), improve the community's flood resistance, and address affordability concerns. Sensitivity analysis of varying incomes, loan interest rates, and conditions for a voucher indicates that the strategy is feasible and effective under a wide range of scenarios. Thus, the proposed strategy can be applied to various communities along the US coastline as an effective way of updating risk-based premiums while addressing affordability and resilience concerns.}, }
@article {pmid36279814, year = {2022}, author = {Furnham, A and Robinson, C}, title = {Correlates of belief in climate change: Demographics, ideology and belief systems.}, journal = {Acta psychologica}, volume = {230}, number = {}, pages = {103775}, doi = {10.1016/j.actpsy.2022.103775}, pmid = {36279814}, issn = {1873-6297}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Attitude ; Gender Identity ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Demography ; }, abstract = {This paper reports on two studies that examine correlates of attitudes to climate change (ACC). In the first study, five hundred participants completed five questionnaires and an intelligence test as well as two related measures of ACC. Using correlations and regressions we examined the relationship between ACC and demography (gender, age, education), ideology (political and religious beliefs), intelligence, self-beliefs, Belief in a Just World and the endorsement of Conspiracy Theories. One climate change questionnaire factored into three factors labelled Impact, Fatalism, and Personal action. The most consistent finding was that political opinions were most strongly related to climate change beliefs: more conservative thinkers denied that individuals could do anything. In the second study, also with 500 participants, we asked one question concerning how seriously they took the issue of global warming. Again, we examined the relationship with this response and the participants' demography, ideology and self-ratings. Political beliefs primarily were related to global warming concerns, as in the first study. Results are discussed in terms of climate change as an ideology and the possible changing of these beliefs. Limitations, like the representativeness of the sample and the single-item measure in the second study are acknowledged.}, }
@article {pmid36279790, year = {2022}, author = {Xiong, W and Reynolds, M and Xu, Y}, title = {Climate change challenges plant breeding.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {70}, number = {}, pages = {102308}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2022.102308}, pmid = {36279790}, issn = {1879-0356}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plant Breeding ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics ; }, abstract = {Plant breeding is important to cope with climate change impacts, complementing crop management and policy interventions to ensure global food production. However, changes in environmental factors also affect the objectives, efficiency, and genetic gains of the current plant breeding system. In this review, we summarize the challenges prompted by climate change to breeding climate-resilient crops and the limitations of the next-generation breeding approach in addressing climate change. It is anticipated that the integration of multi-disciplines and technologies into three schemes of genotyping, phenotyping, and envirotyping will result in the delivery of climate change-ready crops in less time.}, }
@article {pmid36279542, year = {2022}, author = {Ganatra, S and Dani, SS and Al-Kindi, SG and Rajagopalan, S}, title = {Health Care and Climate Change: Challenges and Pathways to Sustainable Health Care.}, journal = {Annals of internal medicine}, volume = {175}, number = {11}, pages = {1598-1600}, doi = {10.7326/M22-1241}, pmid = {36279542}, issn = {1539-3704}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; }, }
@article {pmid36279424, year = {2022}, author = {Shuert, CR and Marcoux, M and Hussey, NE and Heide-Jørgensen, MP and Dietz, R and Auger-Méthé, M}, title = {Decadal migration phenology of a long-lived Arctic icon keeps pace with climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {45}, pages = {e2121092119}, pmid = {36279424}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Male ; *Climate Change ; Canada ; Arctic Regions ; *Ice Cover ; Seasons ; Ecosystem ; Whales ; }, abstract = {Animals migrate in response to seasonal environments, to reproduce, to benefit from resource pulses, or to avoid fluctuating hazards. Although climate change is predicted to modify migration, only a few studies to date have demonstrated phenological shifts in marine mammals. In the Arctic, marine mammals are considered among the most sensitive to ongoing climate change due to their narrow habitat preferences and long life spans. Longevity may prove an obstacle for species to evolutionarily respond. For species that exhibit high site fidelity and strong associations with migration routes, adjusting the timing of migration is one of the few recourses available to respond to a changing climate. Here, we demonstrate evidence of significant delays in the timing of narwhal autumn migrations with satellite tracking data spanning 21 y from the Canadian Arctic. Measures of migration phenology varied annually and were explained by sex and climate drivers associated with ice conditions, suggesting that narwhals are adopting strategic migration tactics. Male narwhals were found to lead the migration out of the summering areas, while females, potentially with dependent young, departed later. Narwhals are remaining longer in their summer areas at a rate of 10 d per decade, a similar rate to that observed for climate-driven sea ice loss across the region. The consequences of altered space use and timing have yet to be evaluated but will expose individuals to increasing natural changes and anthropogenic activities on the summering areas.}, }
@article {pmid36279003, year = {2022}, author = {Radha, SVVD and Sabarathinam, C and Al Otaibi, F and Al-Sabti, BT}, title = {Variation of centennial precipitation patterns in Kuwait and their relation to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {195}, number = {1}, pages = {20}, pmid = {36279003}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Kuwait ; Environmental Monitoring ; Rain ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change could be inferred by observing long-term climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. A local study on the climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, CO2 emissions, and population was carried out. The temperature records of the study period reflected an increase of 1.3 °C, higher than the global average. The relationship between the climatic factors from statistical analysis inferred that local factors did not influence the precipitation in Kuwait but showed an interrelationship among temperature, CO2 emissions, and, population. Therefore, Kuwait's precipitation concerning regional atmospheric processes like sea surface temperature, volcanic eruption, wind direction, and El Nino and La Nina events were studied. The pragmatic change in wind direction in Kuwait from northwest to north after 2005 has enforced to study the effect of the volcanic eruption of Mount Etna on the precipitation in Kuwait. A marked correlation between the precipitation trends and post-eruptive periods of Mount Etna was observed. Similarly, El Nino and La Nina events were correlated, especially with the monthly temperature and total rainfall. Thus, the increase in sea surface temperature and volcanic events influenced the Hadley cell circulation and the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, affecting the rain events in Kuwait.}, }
@article {pmid36278871, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El Adawy, M and Sidibe, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Biomolecules &amp; biomedicine}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {352-353}, pmid = {36278871}, issn = {2831-090X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36278410, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {33 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {114-116}, doi = {10.1002/hpja.669}, pmid = {36278410}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36278246, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ open sport &amp; exercise medicine}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {e001475}, pmid = {36278246}, issn = {2055-7647}, }
@article {pmid36277838, year = {2022}, author = {Kc, KB and Tzadok, E and Pant, L}, title = {Himalayan ecosystem services and climate change driven agricultural frontiers: a scoping review.}, journal = {Discover sustainability}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {35}, pmid = {36277838}, issn = {2662-9984}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change, rising temperatures, snow melts and more frequent droughts and floods are disproportionately affecting food and water security, habitat health, and agricultural productivity in the Himalayan region. These climatic changes are negatively impacting productivity of staple crops including wheat, maize, and rice at lower altitudes, but may provide opportunities to utilize Climate Change Driven Agricultural Frontiers [CCDAFs] at higher altitudes. Agricultural expansion into CCDAFs paired with behavioural shifts such as replacing traditional crop systems with commercial crops will predominantly affect forests, water resources, and soil health, which are already negatively affected by climate change unless adaptation options are directed to just and sustainable agroecological transitions. By trading regulating, supporting, and cultural services for food and water provisioning services, as are evident in land sparing strategy, the utilization of CCDAFs will have long-term implications for the sustainability of mountain farming systems. Climate change is affecting Himalayan agriculture, food security, and ecosystem services, and scientific literature predominantly focus on one of these topics in isolation, occasionally connecting results to another topic. By classifying literature as predominantly agriculture, food security, or ecosystem service themed, this scoping review identifies sources with multiple dominant themes and explores how the relationships between these topics are represented in literature to provide research based evidence to promote the future expansion of agriculture that is low-carbon, just and sustainable. Gaps in the literature reveal that research is needed on the extent of CCDAFs in the Himalayas and the potential trade-offs on utilizing the frontier areas.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43621-022-00103-9.}, }
@article {pmid36277043, year = {2022}, author = {Igobwa, AM and Gachanja, J and Muriithi, B and Olukuru, J and Wairegi, A and Rutenberg, I}, title = {A canary, a coal mine, and imperfect data: determining the efficacy of open-source climate change models in detecting and predicting extreme weather events in Northern and Western Kenya.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {174}, number = {3-4}, pages = {24}, pmid = {36277043}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Climate models, by accurately forecasting future weather events, can be a critical tool in developing countermeasures to reduce crop loss and decrease adverse effects on animal husbandry and fishing. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of various regional versions of the climate models, RCMs, and the commonly available weather datasets in Kenya in predicting extreme weather patterns in northern and western Kenya. We identified two models that may be used to predict flood risks and potential drought events in these regions. The combination of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and weather station data was the most effective in predicting future drought occurrences in Turkana and Wajir with accuracies ranging from 78 to 90%. In the case of flood forecasting, isolation forests models using weather station data had the best overall performance. The above models and datasets may form the basis of an early warning system for use in Kenya's agricultural sector.}, }
@article {pmid36276612, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ surgery, interventions, &amp; health technologies}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {e000174}, pmid = {36276612}, issn = {2631-4940}, }
@article {pmid36275548, year = {2022}, author = {Rana, SK and Rana, HK and Stöcklin, J and Ranjitkar, S and Sun, H and Song, B}, title = {Global warming pushes the distribution range of the two alpine 'glasshouse' Rheum species north- and upwards in the Eastern Himalayas and the Hengduan Mountains.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {925296}, pmid = {36275548}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Alpine plants' distribution is being pushed higher towards mountaintops due to global warming, finally diminishing their range and thereby increasing the risk of extinction. Plants with specialized 'glasshouse' structures have adapted well to harsh alpine environments, notably to the extremely low temperatures, which makes them vulnerable to global warming. However, their response to global warming is quite unexplored. Therefore, by compiling occurrences and several environmental strata, we utilized multiple ensemble species distribution modeling (eSDM) to estimate the historical, present-day, and future distribution of two alpine 'glasshouse' species Rheum nobile Hook. f. &amp; Thomson and R. alexandrae Batalin. Rheum nobile was predicted to extend its distribution from the Eastern Himalaya (EH) to the Hengduan Mountains (HM), whereas R. alexandrae was restricted exclusively in the HM. Both species witnessed a northward expansion of suitable habitats followed by a southerly retreat in the HM region. Our findings reveal that both species have a considerable range shift under different climate change scenarios, mainly triggered by precipitation rather than temperature. The model predicted northward and upward migration for both species since the last glacial period which is mainly due to expected future climate change scenarios. Further, the observed niche overlap between the two species presented that they are more divergent depending on their habitat, except for certain regions in the HM. However, relocating appropriate habitats to the north and high elevation may not ensure the species' survival, as it needs to adapt to the extreme climatic circumstances in alpine habitats. Therefore, we advocate for more conservation efforts in these biodiversity hotspots.}, }
@article {pmid36275327, year = {2022}, author = {Poortinga, W and Latter, B and Wang, S}, title = {Comparing coronavirus (COVID-19) and climate change perceptions: Implications for support for individual and collective-level policies.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {996546}, pmid = {36275327}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {COVID-19 (coronavirus) and climate change are both global issues that have wide-reaching and serious consequences for human health, the economy, and social outcomes for populations around the world, and both require a combination of systemic governmental policies and community support for action. This paper compares people's responses to the coronavirus pandemic and climate change in the United Kingdom (UK). A representative survey of the UK population (n = 1,518) conducted in November and December 2020 explored public perceptions of (a) personal and government responsibility, (b) efficacy and trust, and (c) support for policies to address the two issues. The results show that, while there are a number of similarities between coronavirus and climate change, major differences exist regarding individual action. In comparison to the coronavirus pandemic, people feel less personal responsibility, think that their own personal actions are less efficacious, and express lower levels of support for (in particular individual-level) policies to address climate change. These findings suggest that experiences from the coronavirus pandemic cannot directly be translated to climate change, and thus that climate change is likely to require different policy responses and framing.}, }
@article {pmid36274793, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, F}, title = {Retrieval strategy and possible explanations for the abnormal growth of research publications: re-evaluating a bibliometric analysis of climate change.}, journal = {Scientometrics}, volume = {128}, number = {1}, pages = {853-859}, pmid = {36274793}, issn = {0138-9130}, abstract = {Climate change and global warming have attracted more and more attention from countries all over the world. A recent study published in Scientometrics has evaluated the changing dynamics of climate change-related research publications via a bibliometric analysis and further probed the relationship between climate change-related research output and carbon dioxide emissions. We try to re-evaluate the bibliometric analysis section of the mentioned study and provide three improvement suggestions related to data source, search field and search query respectively. Besides, some new explanations have also been offered for the abnormal increase of research outputs indexed by Web of Science Core Collection in specific years such as 1991. These suggestions and explanations will provide important references for future various bibliometric analyses and research evaluation.}, }
@article {pmid36274601, year = {2022}, author = {Li, TT}, title = {[Strengthening scientific and technological support for health adaptation action to climate change under the 'double carbon' goal].}, journal = {Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine]}, volume = {56}, number = {10}, pages = {1353-1355}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20220906-00880}, pmid = {36274601}, issn = {0253-9624}, support = {//National High-level Talents Special Support Plan of China for Young Talents/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Carbon ; Ultraviolet Rays ; Goals ; China ; }, abstract = {With the global climate change process is accelerating, China is facing great challenges. It is urgent to carry out scientific study, aiming at the major needs of health adaptation action to climate change under the 'double carbon' target. This special issue on Climate Change and Health highlights and reports on China's latest scientific findings in this field. The health risks of non-optimal temperature, drought, ultraviolet radiation and other meteorological factors and cold spells in China are clarified, and the research methods of health risk early warning of heat waves are summarized. Future researches need to further elucidate the scientific evidence of the impact of meteorological factors and extreme weather events on population health in China systematically. Focus on innovating and developing technical methods and tools such as health risk early warning models. Accelerate the transformation and application of relevant scientific and technological achievements in China. To provide scientific and technological support for the health adaptation action to climate change under the 'double carbon' goal.}, }
@article {pmid36274301, year = {2023}, author = {Næss, JS and Hu, X and Gvein, MH and Iordan, CM and Cavalett, O and Dorber, M and Giroux, B and Cherubini, F}, title = {Climate change mitigation potentials of biofuels produced from perennial crops and natural regrowth on abandoned and degraded cropland in Nordic countries.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {325}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {116474}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116474}, pmid = {36274301}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Biofuels ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Scandinavian and Nordic Countries ; }, abstract = {Bioenergy expansion is present in most climate change mitigation scenarios. The associated large land use changes have led to concerns on how bioenergy can be sustainably deployed. Promising win-win strategies include the production of perennial bioenergy crops on recently abandoned cropland or on cropland prone to land degradation, as perennial crops typically reduce soil erosion rates. Natural vegetation regrowth is an alternative nature-based solution that can also co-deliver negative emissions and other environmental benefits. In this study, we explore the potential to deploy bioenergy crops in Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark) on abandoned cropland and on cropland threatened by soil erosion and compare the achievable climate change mitigation benefits with natural regrowth. We found 186 thousand hectares (kha) of abandoned cropland and 995 kha of cropland threatened by soil erosion suitable for bioenergy crop cultivation. The primary bioenergy potential in the region is 151 PJ (PJ) per year, corresponding to 67-110 PJ per year of liquid biofuels depending on biorefinery technology. This has a climate change mitigation potential from -6.0 to -17 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MtCO2eq) per year over the first 20 years (equivalent to 14-40% of annual road transport emissions), with high-end estimates relying on bioenergy coupled to carbon capture and storage (BECCS). On the same area, natural regrowth can deliver negative emissions of -10 MtCO2eq per year. Biofuel production outperforms natural regrowth on 46% of abandoned cropland with currently available biorefinery technologies, 83% with improved energy conversion efficiency, and nearly everywhere with BECCS. For willow windbreaks, improved biorefinery technology or BECCS is necessary to ensure the delivery of larger negative emissions than natural regrowth. Biofuel production is preferable to natural regrowth on 16% of croplands threatened by soil erosion with the current biorefinery technology and on 87% of the land area with BECCS. Without BECCS, liquid biofuels achieve larger climate benefits than natural regrowth only when bioenergy yields are high. Underutilized land and land affected by degradation processes are an opportunity for a gradual and more sustainable bioenergy deployment, and local considerations are needed to identify case-specific solutions that can co-deliver multiple environmental benefits.}, }
@article {pmid36273599, year = {2023}, author = {Neira, M and Erguler, K and Ahmady-Birgani, H and Al-Hmoud, ND and Fears, R and Gogos, C and Hobbhahn, N and Koliou, M and Kostrikis, LG and Lelieveld, J and Majeed, A and Paz, S and Rudich, Y and Saad-Hussein, A and Shaheen, M and Tobias, A and Christophides, G}, title = {Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {216}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {114537}, pmid = {36273599}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Humans ; *Air Pollution ; Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Policy ; Research ; }, abstract = {Human health is linked to climatic factors in complex ways, and climate change can have profound direct and indirect impacts on the health status of any given region. Susceptibility to climate change is modulated by biological, ecological and socio-political factors such as age, gender, geographic location, socio-economic status, occupation, health status and housing conditions, among other. In the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), climatic factors known to affect human health include extreme heat, water shortages and air pollution. Furthermore, the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) and the health consequences of population displacement are also influenced by climate change in this region. To inform future policies for adaptation and mitigation measures, and based on an extensive review of the available knowledge, we recommend several research priorities for the region. These include the generation of more empirical evidence on exposure-response functions involving climate change and specific health outcomes, the development of appropriate methodologies to evaluate the physical and psychological effects of climate change on vulnerable populations, determining how climate change alters the ecological determinants of human health, improving our understanding of the effects of long-term exposure to heat stress and air pollution, and evaluating the interactions between adaptation and mitigation strategies. Because national boundaries do not limit most climate-related factors expected to impact human health, we propose that adaptation/mitigation policies must have a regional scope, and therefore require collaborative efforts among EMME nations. Policy suggestions include a decisive region-wide decarbonisation, the integration of environmentally driven morbidity and mortality data throughout the region, advancing the development and widespread use of affordable technologies for the production and management of drinking water by non-traditional means, the development of comprehensive strategies to improve the health status of displaced populations, and fostering regional networks for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases and disease vectors.}, }
@article {pmid36273559, year = {2023}, author = {James, RK and Keyzer, LM and van de Velde, SJ and Herman, PMJ and van Katwijk, MM and Bouma, TJ}, title = {Climate change mitigation by coral reefs and seagrass beds at risk: How global change compromises coastal ecosystem services.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {857}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {159576}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159576}, pmid = {36273559}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Coral Reefs ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Seagrass meadows provide valuable ecosystem services of coastal protection and chemical habitat formation that could help mitigate the impact of sea level rise and ocean acidification. However, the intensification of hydrodynamic forces caused by sea level rise, in addition to habitat degradation threaten the provision of these ecosystem services. With quantitative field measurements of the coastal protection and chemical habitat formation services of seagrass meadows, we statistically model the relationships between hydrodynamic forces, vegetation density and the provision of these ecosystem services. Utilising a high-resolution hydrodynamic model that simulates end of the century hydrodynamic conditions and three scenarios of coral reef degradation (i.e., keep up, remain or loss) we quantify how the environmental conditions within a tropical bay will change given changes to the provision of ecosystem services. Our study shows that increasing hydrodynamic forces lead to a seafloor made up of a larger grain size that is increasingly unstable and more vulnerable to erosion. The loss of a fringing reef leads to larger hydrodynamic forces entering the bay, however, the 0.87 m increase in depth due to sea-level rise reduces the bed shear stress in shallower areas, which limits the change in the ecosystem services provided by the current benthic seagrass meadow. Loss of seagrass constitutes the greatest change in a bay ecosystem, resulting in the sediment surface where seagrass existed becoming unstable and the median sediment grain size increasing by 5-7 %. The loss of seagrass also leads to the disappearance of the unique fluctuating chemical habitat, which leaves the surrounding community vulnerable to ocean acidification. A reduction or complete loss of these ecosystem services would impact the entire community assemblage while also leaving the surrounding coastline vulnerable to erosion, thus exacerbating negative effects brought about by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36273267, year = {2023}, author = {Zahra, N and Hafeez, MB and Wahid, A and Al Masruri, MH and Ullah, A and Siddique, KHM and Farooq, M}, title = {Impact of climate change on wheat grain composition and quality.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {103}, number = {6}, pages = {2745-2751}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.12289}, pmid = {36273267}, issn = {1097-0010}, support = {SR/AGR/CROP/19/01//Sultan Qaboos University/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Triticum/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Edible Grain/chemistry ; Heat-Shock Response ; Starch/analysis ; }, abstract = {Wheat grain quality, an important determinant for human nutrition, is often overlooked when improving crop production for stressed environments. Climate change makes this task more difficult by imposing combined stresses. The scenarios relevant to climate change include elevated CO2 concentrations (eCO2) and extreme climatic events such as drought, heat waves, and salinity stresses. However, data on wheat quality in terms of climate change are limited, with no concerted efforts at the global level to provide an equitable and consistent climate risk assessment for wheat grain quality. Climate change induces changes in the quality and composition of wheat grain, a premier staple food crop globally. Climate-change events, such as eCO2 , heat, drought, salinity stress stresses, heat + drought, eCO2 + drought, and eCO2 + heat stresses, alter wheat grain quality in terms of grain weight, nutrient, anti-nutrient, fiber, and protein content and composition, starch granules, and free amino acid composition. Interestingly, in comparison with other stresses, heat stress and drought stress increase phytate content, which restricts the bioavailability of essential mineral elements. All climatic events, except for eCO2 + heat stress, increase grain gliadin content in different wheat varieties. However, grain quality components depend more on inter-varietal difference, stress type, and exposure time and intensity. The climatic events show differential regulation of protein and starch accumulation, and mineral metabolism in wheat grains. Rapid climate shifting impairs wheat productivity and causes grain quality to deteriorate by interrupting the allocation of essential nutrients and photoassimilates. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid36272438, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The lancet. Gastroenterology &amp; hepatology}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {1068-1070}, doi = {10.1016/S2468-1253(22)00349-1}, pmid = {36272438}, issn = {2468-1253}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36272437, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet. Global health}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {e18-e20}, doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00457-0}, pmid = {36272437}, issn = {2214-109X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36272436, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet. Neurology}, volume = {21}, number = {12}, pages = {1073-1075}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-4422(22)00430-6}, pmid = {36272436}, issn = {1474-4465}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36272435, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet. Respiratory medicine}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {1115-1117}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-2600(22)00409-X}, pmid = {36272435}, issn = {2213-2619}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36272433, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {19-21}, doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00696-X}, pmid = {36272433}, issn = {1474-4457}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36272431, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet. Microbe}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {e6-e8}, doi = {10.1016/S2666-5247(22)00302-0}, pmid = {36272431}, issn = {2666-5247}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36272430, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The lancet. HIV}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {e817-e819}, doi = {10.1016/S2352-3018(22)00306-X}, pmid = {36272430}, issn = {2352-3018}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *HIV Infections/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36272429, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {e852-e854}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00255-8}, pmid = {36272429}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Africa ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; }, }
@article {pmid36272428, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet. Child &amp; adolescent health}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {837-839}, doi = {10.1016/S2352-4642(22)00308-X}, pmid = {36272428}, issn = {2352-4650}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36272427, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet. Public health}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {e892-e894}, doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00261-4}, pmid = {36272427}, issn = {2468-2667}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36272426, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet. Haematology}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {e871-e873}, doi = {10.1016/S2352-3026(22)00335-0}, pmid = {36272426}, issn = {2352-3026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36272425, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The lancet. Healthy longevity}, volume = {3}, number = {11}, pages = {e731-e733}, doi = {10.1016/S2666-7568(22)00244-6}, pmid = {36272425}, issn = {2666-7568}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36272424, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {400}, number = {10363}, pages = {1563-1565}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01986-9}, pmid = {36272424}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36272422, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The lancet. Psychiatry}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {e49-e51}, doi = {10.1016/S2215-0366(22)00369-8}, pmid = {36272422}, issn = {2215-0374}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36272421, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The lancet. Diabetes &amp; endocrinology}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {837-839}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-8587(22)00305-9}, pmid = {36272421}, issn = {2213-8595}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36272420, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet. Oncology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {1486-1488}, doi = {10.1016/S1470-2045(22)00645-3}, pmid = {36272420}, issn = {1474-5488}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36271787, year = {2023}, author = {Li, Z and Linard, B and Vogler, AP and Yu, DW and Wang, Z}, title = {Phylogenetic diversity only weakly mitigates climate-change-driven biodiversity loss in insect communities.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {23}, pages = {6147-6160}, doi = {10.1111/mec.16747}, pmid = {36271787}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {31601849//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; //Animal Branch of the Germplasm Bank of Wild Species, Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; QYZDY-SSW-SMC024//Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS/ ; GREKF19-01//State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution, Kunming Institute of Zoology/ ; GREKF20-01//State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution, Kunming Institute of Zoology/ ; GREKF21-01//State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution, Kunming Institute of Zoology/ ; XDA20050202//Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; //Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology/ ; //University of East Anglia/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Phylogeny ; Biodiversity ; Insecta ; Biological Evolution ; *Arthropods ; *Coleoptera/genetics ; }, abstract = {To help address the underrepresentation of arthropods and Asian biodiversity from climate-change assessments, we carried out year-long, weekly sampling campaigns with Malaise traps at different elevations and latitudes in Gaoligongshan National Park in southwestern China. From these 623 samples, we barcoded 10,524 beetles and compared scenarios of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss, by designating seasonal, elevational, and latitudinal subsets of beetles as communities that plausibly could go extinct as a group, which we call "loss sets". The availability of a published mitochondrial-genome-based phylogeny of the Coleoptera allowed us to compare the loss of species diversity with and without accounting for phylogenetic relatedness. We hypothesised that phylogenetic relatedness would mitigate extinction, since the extinction of any loss set would result in the disappearance of all its species but only part of its evolutionary history, which is still extant in the remaining loss sets. We found different patterns of community clustering by season and latitude, depending on whether phylogenetic information was incorporated. However, accounting for phylogeny only slightly mitigated the amount of biodiversity loss under climate change scenarios, against our expectations: there is no phylogenetic "escape clause" for biodiversity conservation. We achieve the same results whether phylogenetic information was derived from the mitogenome phylogeny or from a de novo barcode-gene tree. We encourage interested researchers to use this data set to study lineage-specific community assembly patterns in conjunction with life-history traits and environmental covariates.}, }
@article {pmid36271702, year = {2023}, author = {Sheffield, PE}, title = {Mental health and climate change: The critical window of pregnancy.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {383-384}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.14501}, pmid = {36271702}, issn = {1879-3479}, support = {NU61TS000296-02-00/TS/ATSDR CDC HHS/United States ; DW-75-95877701//US Environmental Protection Agency/ ; NU61TS000296-02-00/TS/ATSDR CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Female ; Pregnancy ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36271675, year = {2023}, author = {Sun, Y and Alseekh, S and Fernie, AR}, title = {Plant secondary metabolic responses to global climate change: A meta-analysis in medicinal and aromatic plants.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {477-504}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16484}, pmid = {36271675}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {32101842//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 664621//PlantaSYST project by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme/ ; 739582//PlantaSYST project by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Secondary Metabolism ; *Plants/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Plant secondary metabolites (SMs) play crucial roles in plant-environment interactions and contribute greatly to human health. Global climate changes are expected to dramatically affect plant secondary metabolism, yet a systematic understanding of such influences is still lacking. Here, we employed medicinal and aromatic plants (MAAPs) as model plant taxa and performed a meta-analysis from 360 publications using 1828 paired observations to assess the responses of different SMs levels and the accompanying plant traits to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2), elevated temperature (eT), elevated nitrogen deposition (eN) and decreased precipitation (dP). The overall results showed that phenolic and terpenoid levels generally respond positively to eCO2 but negatively to eN, while the total alkaloid concentration was increased remarkably by eN. By contrast, dP promotes the levels of all SMs, while eT exclusively exerts a positive influence on the levels of phenolic compounds. Further analysis highlighted the dependence of SM responses on different moderators such as plant functional types, climate change levels or exposure durations, mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation. Moreover, plant phenolic and terpenoid responses to climate changes could be attributed to the variations of C/N ratio and total soluble sugar levels, while the trade-off supposition contributed to SM responses to climate changes other than eCO2 . Taken together, our results predicted the distinctive SM responses to diverse climate changes in MAAPs and allowed us to define potential moderators responsible for these variations. Further, linking SM responses to C-N metabolism and growth-defence balance provided biological understandings in terms of plant secondary metabolic regulation.}, }
@article {pmid36271371, year = {2022}, author = {Bush, T and Jensen, WA and Katsumoto, TR}, title = {U.S. medical organizations and climate change advocacy: a review of public facing websites.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {1950}, pmid = {36271371}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses a risk of health catastrophes and must be expeditiously addressed across the health care sector. Physicians are considered trustworthy and are well positioned to discuss climate change with patients. A unified strategy by all U.S. medical societies is essential to effectively mitigate their carbon footprint and address health concerns.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a review of the public facing websites of member organizations of the AMA House of Delegates and the AMA, which were scored based on inclusion of content related to climate change in position statements or policies, task forces or committees, patient education materials, practice recommendations and any official society publications. Membership in&#xa0;the Medical Society Consortium on Climate and Health&#xa0;or participation in the organization My Green Doctor were recorded as indicators of a commitment to providing educational resources about mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The availability of a virtual option for annual meetings, as a potential means to reduce the carbon footprint of attendees, was trended from 2021 to 2022.<br><br>RESULTS: Fifty out of 111 U.S. medical organizations (45%) had at least one metric with a reference to climate change and sixty-one organizations (55%) had no evidence of such website content. Out of 111 websites, only 20% (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;22) had position statements or policies pertaining to climate change, 11% (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;12) had committees or task forces dealing with climate change, 8% (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;9) provided patient education resources on climate change, 21% (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;23) included green practice recommendations and 45% (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;50) had an article in an official society publication addressing climate change. Only 14% (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;15) were listed as member societies of the Medical Consortium on Climate Change and 2% (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;2) were participating organizations with My Green Doctor.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Viewed through the lens of medical society websites, there was a wide variation in efforts to address climate change. The high performing organizations can serve as a guide for other societies to help mitigate and adapt to the climate emergency.}, }
@article {pmid36270956, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Lancet. Digital health}, volume = {4}, number = {12}, pages = {e858-e860}, doi = {10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30270-3}, pmid = {36270956}, issn = {2589-7500}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa ; *Developing Countries ; }, }
@article {pmid36270906, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, R and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Adawy, ME and Sidib, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {EBioMedicine}, volume = {85}, number = {}, pages = {104325}, pmid = {36270906}, issn = {2352-3964}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36269277, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Transfusion medicine (Oxford, England)}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {445-447}, doi = {10.1111/tme.12922}, pmid = {36269277}, issn = {1365-3148}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36268838, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Nursing inquiry}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {e12532}, doi = {10.1111/nin.12532}, pmid = {36268838}, issn = {1440-1800}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36268713, year = {2023}, author = {Niebel, D and Hertl, M and Hecker, C and Saha, S}, title = {Reply to: "Dermatology's call to emergency action on climate change".}, journal = {Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology : JEADV}, volume = {37}, number = {5}, pages = {e666-e667}, doi = {10.1111/jdv.18677}, pmid = {36268713}, issn = {1468-3083}, mesh = {Humans ; *Dermatology ; Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36268525, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Rheumatology advances in practice}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {rkac082}, pmid = {36268525}, issn = {2514-1775}, }
@article {pmid36268472, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental epigenetics}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {dvac019}, pmid = {36268472}, issn = {2058-5888}, }
@article {pmid36267875, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Neuro-oncology advances}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {vdac160}, pmid = {36267875}, issn = {2632-2498}, }
@article {pmid36267685, year = {2022}, author = {Chen, C and Zhang, XJ and Wan, JZ and Gao, FF and Yuan, SS and Sun, TT and Ni, ZD and Yu, JH}, title = {Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {e9374}, pmid = {36267685}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Association is the basic unit of plant community classification. Exploring the distribution of plant associations can help improve our understanding of biodiversity conservation. Different associations depend on different habitats and studying the association level is important for ecological restoration, regional ecological protection, regulating the ecological balance, and maintaining biodiversity. However, previous studies have only focused on suitable distribution areas for species and not on the distribution of plant associations. Larix gmelinii is a sensitive and abundant species that occurs along the southern margin of the Eurasian boreal forests, and its distribution is closely related to permafrost. In this study, 420 original plots of L. gmelinii forests were investigated. We used a Maxent model and the ArcGIS software to project the potential geographical distribution of L. gmelinii associations in the future (by 2050 and 2070) according to the climate scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We used the multi-classification logistic regression analysis method to obtain the response of the suitable area change for the L. gmelinii alliance and associations to climate change under different climate scenarios. Results revealed that temperature is the most crucial factor affecting the distribution of L. gmelinii forests and most of its associations under different climate scenarios. Suitable areas for each association type are shrinking by varying degrees, especially due to habitat loss at high altitudes in special terrains. Different L. gmelinii associations should have different management measures based on the site conditions, composition structure, growth, development, and renewal succession trends. Subsequent research should consider data on biological factors to obtain more accurate prediction results.}, }
@article {pmid36267549, year = {2022}, author = {Gong, Y and Li, Y and Zhang, L and Lee, TM and Sun, Y}, title = {Threats of COVID-19 arouse public awareness of climate change risks.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {25}, number = {11}, pages = {105350}, pmid = {36267549}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Public climate change awareness is indispensable to dealing with climate change threats. Understanding whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic impacts on individuals' climate change risk perception would thus be critical to green economic recovery. We conducted a longitudinal survey study in China when the pandemic was at its height and when it was mitigated. The cross-lagged analysis confirmed our assumed "arousal" effect of perceived COVID-19 risks on climate change risk awareness. We further tested and verified the proposed "dual-pathway" mechanisms of affective generalization (i.e., negative affective states aroused by COVID-19 "spillover" to the assessment of climate change risk) and cognitive association (i.e., the outbreak of COVID-19 awakens people's recognition of the human-nature-climate issues) via multiple mediation analyses. Our results implied that climate policies could be integrated into pandemic control, and that the public should be more awakened to confront multiple crises with proper guidance.}, }
@article {pmid36267339, year = {2022}, author = {Kassam, KS and Bernardo, J}, title = {Role of Biodiversity in Ecological Calendars and Its Implications for Food Sovereignty: Empirical Assessment of the Resilience of Indicator Species to Anthropogenic Climate Change.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {10}, pages = {e2022GH000614}, pmid = {36267339}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Ecological calendars are knowledge systems based on close observation of one's habitat to measure and give meaning to time, thereby providing anticipatory capacity for livelihood activities and contributing to food sovereignty. They rely upon seasonal indicators that integrate biophysical and ecological phenomena (e.g., first snowfall, last frost, blossoming of a tree species; seasonal appearance of an animal or plant) with locally grounded cultural meaning and value systems. These context-specific relationships have enabled Indigenous and rural societies to anticipate weather and other seasonal processes in their environment. However, anthropogenic climate change could undermine ecological calendars due to adverse impacts on specific indicators species, but this issue remains unexplored. We address this knowledge gap by examining how anthropogenic climate change might affect selected species (birds, fish, and mammals) that are seasonal and key to Indigenous food systems in two Western Arctic communities. We leverage existing dietary animal datasets to which we apply a novel methodology for assessing organismal vulnerability to climate change. The methodology uses intrinsic species traits such as physiological tolerances, genetic variability, and life history traits to generate an empirical and integrative assessment of vulnerability for any given species. Subsequently, an aggregate view of vulnerability across calendar species is achieved through comparative statistical analysis across species both within and between communities. This exercise permits the first quantitative assessment of the continued relevance and effective use of an ecological calendar, thus demonstrating that food sovereignty and livelihood security is enhanced by biodiversity of indicator species.}, }
@article {pmid36267330, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Brain communications}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {fcac254}, pmid = {36267330}, issn = {2632-1297}, }
@article {pmid36267322, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Innovation in aging}, volume = {6}, number = {7}, pages = {igac063}, pmid = {36267322}, issn = {2399-5300}, }
@article {pmid36267295, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {European heart journal. Case reports}, volume = {6}, number = {10}, pages = {ytac406}, pmid = {36267295}, issn = {2514-2119}, }
@article {pmid36267120, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.}, journal = {JAMIA open}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {ooac084}, pmid = {36267120}, issn = {2574-2531}, }
@article {pmid36265975, year = {2022}, author = {Rorie, A}, title = {Climate Change Factors and the Aerobiology Effect.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {42}, number = {4}, pages = {771-786}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2022.05.007}, pmid = {36265975}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Allergens ; Pollen ; }, abstract = {There is clear evidence that climate change is occurring as there has been an acceleration of global temperatures since the mid-nineteenth century along with rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. It has been proposed that one of the most significant consequences of climate change on human health could be the impact on aeroallergens. Evidence from around globe has pointed to longer and more abundant pollen season associated with global warming. Additional studies have also suggested increased pollen allergenicity due to air pollution.}, }
@article {pmid36265642, year = {2023}, author = {Zhang, Y and Liu, H and Qi, J and Feng, P and Zhang, X and Liu, L and Marek, GW and Srinivasan, R and Chen, Y}, title = {Assessing impacts of global climate change on water and food security in the black soil region of Northeast China using an improved SWAT-CO2 model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {857}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {159482}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159482}, pmid = {36265642}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Soil ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Water ; Models, Theoretical ; Zea mays ; Food Security ; }, abstract = {Future climate change may have substantial impacts on both water resources and food security in China's black soil region. The Liao River Basin (LRB; 220,000 km[2]) is representative of the main black soil area, making it ideal for studying climate change effects on black soil. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was first initialized for the LRB. Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) values calculated using the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model and city-level corn (Zea mays L.) yields were then used to calibrate the SWAT model. Finally, the SWAT model was modified to accept dynamic CO2 input and output crop transpiration, soil evaporation, and canopy interception separately to explore the impacts of future climate change on ET related variables and crop water productivity (CWP) in the LRB. Simulation scenario design included 22 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for two 30-year periods of 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The predicted results showed a significant (P < 0.05) increase in air temperatures and precipitation in the LRB. In contrast, solar radiation decreased significantly and was most reduced for the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Reference evapotranspiration (ETo), ETa, and soil evaporation significantly increased in future scenarios, while canopy interception and crop transpiration showed significant reductions, particularly under the 2071-2100 SSP5-8.5 scenario. Overall, corn yield elevated considerably (P < 0.05) with the largest increase for the SSP5-8.5 scenario during 2071-2100. However, the SSP3-7.0 scenario indicated a significant decline in yield. Future changes in CWP were similar to those for corn yield, with significant increases in the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These findings suggested future climate change may have a positive impact on corn production in the black soil region of the LRB.}, }
@article {pmid36264403, year = {2023}, author = {Latkin, C and Dayton, L and Bonneau, H and Bhaktaram, A and Ross, J and Pugel, J and Latshaw, MW}, title = {Perceived Barriers to Climate Change Activism Behaviors in the United States Among Individuals Highly Concerned about Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of prevention (2022)}, volume = {44}, number = {4}, pages = {389-407}, pmid = {36264403}, issn = {2731-5541}, support = {R01DA040488/DA/NIDA NIH HHS/United States ; P30 AI094189/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; United States ; *Climate Change ; Longitudinal Studies ; *Global Warming ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Politics ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There is a tremendous gap between the proportion of the population expressing concern about climate change and those engaged in climate change activism. We examined barriers to climate change activism among respondents stating climate change was an important issue to them.<br><br>METHODS: Participants in a national online longitudinal study reported on 12 reasons for lack of involvement in climate change actions. Five months later, engagement in six climate change actions was assessed. The primary analyses focused on the 319 respondents who, out of 592 respondents who participated in both surveys, reported that the issue of global warming was extremely or very important to them.<br><br>RESULTS: Participants showed a range of engagement in climate change activism behaviors: 29.8% donated money to an organization to reduce climate change, 32.3% signed a petition, 69.0% voted for candidates who support measures to reduce climate change, 11.9% wrote letters, e-mailed, or phoned government officials to urge them to take action, and 9.4% volunteered with organizations working to curb climate change. The median number of barriers was 5. The most frequent reasons for lack of involvement in climate change activism were other people are better at it (57.4%), hadn't been trained (56.7%), hadn't been asked (50.8%), not knowing how to get involved (49.8%), activities like letter writing not appealing (49.8%), too busy (38.9%), organizations would ask them for money (39.8%), and not encouraged to become involved (38.2%). Several barriers were associated with engagement in climate change activism five months later. The most consistent association with activism was with talking about climate change in the prior month.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Most respondents cited several barriers that impeded their involvement in climate change activism. Select barriers were associated with reduced engagement in activism. Organizations that address climate change should acknowledge barriers but emphasize that individuals can engage in climate change activism regardless of barriers.}, }
@article {pmid36264269, year = {2022}, author = {Sarabu, C and Deonarine, A and Leitner, S and Fayanju, O and Fisun, M and Nadeau, K}, title = {Climate change and health informatics: pilot survey of perspectives across the field.}, journal = {Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {2117-2123}, pmid = {36264269}, issn = {1527-974X}, mesh = {Humans ; United States ; *Climate Change ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Medical Informatics/education ; Educational Status ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Establish a baseline of informatics professionals' perspectives on climate change and health.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: Anonymized survey sent to 9 informatics listservs March 31, 2022 to April 15, 2022.<br><br>RESULTS: N&#x2009;=&#x2009;85 participants completed part or all of survey. Majority of participants worked at hospitals with 1000+ employees (73%) in urban areas (60%) in the United States. Respondents broadly reported general understanding of climate change and health (51%), but 71% reported unfamiliarity with technologies that could help clinicians and informaticians address the impacts of climate change. Seventy-one percent of surveyed wanted climate-driven environmental health information included in EHRs. Seventy-six percent of respondents reported that informaticians should be involved in institutional decarbonization. Seventy-eight percent of respondents felt that it was extremely, very, or moderately important to receive education on climate change.<br><br>DISCUSSION: General consensus on need to engage informaticians in climate change response, but gaps identified in knowledge dissemination and tools for adaptation and mitigation.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Informaticians broadly concerned about climate change and want to be engaged in efforts to combat it, but further education and tool development needed.}, }
@article {pmid36264084, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {e0272222}, pmid = {36264084}, issn = {2150-7511}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36263765, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 climate change conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Pharmacology research &amp; perspectives}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e01018}, pmid = {36263765}, issn = {2052-1707}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid36261225, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {594-596}, pmid = {36261225}, issn = {1473-4893}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36260935, year = {2022}, author = {Talle, MA and Buba, F and Baba, MM}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Management of Systemic Hypertension in North-Eastern Nigeria.}, journal = {West African journal of medicine}, volume = {39}, number = {10}, pages = {1104-1107}, pmid = {36260935}, issn = {0189-160X}, mesh = {Humans ; Antihypertensive Agents/therapeutic use ; Climate Change ; Nigeria/epidemiology ; *Hypertension/drug therapy/epidemiology ; *Hypotension ; Diuretics/therapeutic use ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on health, including changes in epidemiology and heat-related complications, has been variously reported in many parts of the world. Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state in north-eastern Nigeria, has been bearing the brunt of increasing temperatures over the past years, especially during the early months of the year building up to the commencement of the rainy season; with an average daily temperature forecasted to be around 40(?)C. Patients with systemic hypertension and other forms of cardiovascular diseases are vulnerable to heat-related complications including dehydration, hypotension, and orthostatic hypotension (OH). This is particularly true in patients receiving various forms of antihypertensive medication, including diuretics. We present three cases of symptomatic OH occurring during the peak of heat season in Maiduguri among patients receiving various combinations of antihypertensive medication. L'impact du changement climatique sur la santé, y compris les changements dans l'épidémiologie et les complications liées à la chaleur, a été diversement rapporté dans de nombreuses régions du monde. Maiduguri, la capitale de l'État de Borno, dans le nord-est du Nigeria, a subi de plein fouet l'augmentation des températures au cours des dernières années, en particulier au cours des premiers mois de l'année, jusqu'au début de la saison des pluies. Les patients souffrant d'hypertension systémique et d'autres formes de maladies cardiovasculaires sont vulnérables aux complications liées à la chaleur, notamment la déshydratation, l'hypotension et l'hypotension orthostatique (OH). Cela est particulièrement vrai chez les patients recevant diverses formes de médicaments antihypertenseurs, notamment des diurétiques. Nous présentons trois cas d'OH symptomatique survenus pendant le pic de la saison chaude à Maiduguri chez des patients recevant diverses combinaisons de médicaments antihypertenseurs. Mots clés: Changement climatique, Hypertension, Agents antihypertenseurs, Hypotension orthostatique, Zone semiaride, Maiduguri, Nigeria.}, }
@article {pmid36260862, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference - Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {387}, number = {20}, pages = {1829-1831}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp2213503}, pmid = {36260862}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {Humans ; Africa ; *Climate Change ; *Congresses as Topic ; Internationality ; }, }
@article {pmid36260367, year = {2023}, author = {Grinder, RM and Wiens, JJ}, title = {Niche width predicts extinction from climate change and vulnerability of tropical species.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {618-630}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16486}, pmid = {36260367}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Biodiversity ; Global Warming ; Temperature ; Cold Temperature ; Ecosystem ; Tropical Climate ; Extinction, Biological ; }, abstract = {Climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, especially to tropical species. Yet, why tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change remains unclear. Tropical species are thought to have narrower physiological tolerances to temperature, and they have already experienced a higher estimated frequency of climate-related local extinctions. These two patterns suggest that tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change because they have narrower thermal niche widths. However, no studies have tested whether species with narrower climatic niche widths for temperature have experienced more local extinctions, and if these narrower niche widths can explain the higher frequency of tropical local extinctions. Here, we test these ideas using resurvey data from 538 plant and animal species from 10 studies. We found that mean niche widths among species and the extent of climate change (increase in maximum annual temperatures) together explained most variation (>75%) in the frequency of local extinction among studies. Surprisingly, neither latitude nor occurrence in the tropics alone significantly predicted local extinction among studies, but latitude and niche widths were strongly inversely related. Niche width also significantly predicted local extinction among species, as well as among and (sometimes) within studies. Overall, niche width may offer a relatively simple and accessible predictor of the vulnerability of populations to climate change. Intriguingly, niche width has the best predictive power to explain extinction from global warming when it incorporates coldest yearly temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid36260338, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Archivos argentinos de pediatria}, volume = {120}, number = {6}, pages = {362-364}, doi = {10.5546/aap.2022.eng.362}, pmid = {36260338}, issn = {1668-3501}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36259742, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adaw, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {[COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World].}, journal = {West African journal of medicine}, volume = {39}, number = {10}, pages = {995-996}, pmid = {36259742}, issn = {0189-160X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid36259721, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {COP27 climate change conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Journal of child health care : for professionals working with children in the hospital and community}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {513-516}, doi = {10.1177/13674935221132171}, pmid = {36259721}, issn = {1741-2889}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36259696, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Health policy and planning}, volume = {37}, number = {10}, pages = {1207-1209}, pmid = {36259696}, issn = {1460-2237}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36259690, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {West African journal of medicine}, volume = {39}, number = {10}, pages = {993-994}, pmid = {36259690}, issn = {0189-160X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid36259685, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {International journal of laboratory hematology}, volume = {45}, number = {1}, pages = {3-5}, doi = {10.1111/ijlh.13980}, pmid = {36259685}, issn = {1751-553X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36259666, year = {2022}, author = {Erhabor, GE and Arawomo, AO and Sanni, D}, title = {Climate Change and the Global Impact.}, journal = {West African journal of medicine}, volume = {39}, number = {10}, pages = {991-992}, pmid = {36259666}, issn = {0189-160X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; }, }
@article {pmid36259528, year = {2023}, author = {Pérez-Escamilla, R and Moran, VH}, title = {Maternal and child nutrition must be at the heart of the climate change agendas.}, journal = {Maternal &amp; child nutrition}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {e13444}, pmid = {36259528}, issn = {1740-8709}, support = {UL1 TR001863/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Child Nutritional Physiological Phenomena ; }, }
@article {pmid36259369, year = {2023}, author = {Zhu, G and Giam, X and Armsworth, PR and Cho, SH and Papeş, M}, title = {Biodiversity conservation adaptation to climate change: Protecting the actors or the stage.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {33}, number = {2}, pages = {e2765}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2765}, pmid = {36259369}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Biodiversity ; Ecosystem ; Vertebrates ; Amphibians ; Mammals ; }, abstract = {To be able to protect biodiversity in coming decades, conservation strategies need to consider what sites will be important for species not just today but also in the future. Different methods have been proposed to identify places that will be important for species in the future. Two of the most frequently used methods, ecological niche modeling and climate resilience, have distinct aims. The former focuses on identifying the suitable environmental conditions for species, thus protecting the "actor," namely, the species, whereas the latter seeks to safeguard the "stage," or the landscape in which species occur. We used the two methods to identify climate refugia for 258 forest vertebrates under short- and long-term climatic changes in a biodiversity hotspot, the Appalachian ecoregion of the United States. We also evaluated the spatial congruence of the two approaches for a possible conservation application, that of protecting 30% of the Appalachian region, in line with recent national and international policy recommendations. We detected weak positive correlations between resilience scores and baseline vertebrate richness, estimated with ecological niche models for historical (baseline) climatic conditions. The correlations were stronger for amphibians and mammals than for birds and reptiles. Under climate change scenarios, the correlations between estimated vertebrate richness and resilience were also weakly positive; a positive correlation was detected only for amphibians. Locations with estimated future gain of suitable climatic conditions for vertebrates showed low correlation with resilience. Overall, our results indicate that climate resilience and ecological niche modeling approaches capture different characteristics of projected distributional changes of Appalachian vertebrates. A climate resilience (the stage) approach could be more effective in safeguarding species with low dispersal abilities, whereas an ecological niche modeling (the actor) approach could be more suitable for species with long-distance dispersal capacity because they may be more broadly impacted by climate and less sensitive to geophysical features captured by a climate resilience approach.}, }
@article {pmid36259208, year = {2022}, author = {Lemieux, A and Colby, GA and Poulain, AJ and Aris-Brosou, S}, title = {Viral spillover risk increases with climate change in High Arctic lake sediments.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {289}, number = {1985}, pages = {20221073}, pmid = {36259208}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Lakes ; Climate Change ; Phylogeny ; Arctic Regions ; *Viruses/genetics ; Soil ; }, abstract = {The host spectrum of viruses is quite diverse, as they can sustainedly infect a few species to several phyla. When confronted with a new host, a virus may even infect it and transmit sustainably in this new host, a process called 'viral spillover'. However, the risk of such events is difficult to quantify. As climate change is rapidly transforming environments, it is becoming critical to quantify the potential for spillovers. To address this issue, we resorted to a metagenomics approach and focused on two environments, soil and lake sediments from Lake Hazen, the largest High Arctic freshwater lake in the world. We used DNA and RNA sequencing to reconstruct the lake's virosphere in both its sediments and soils, as well as its range of eukaryotic hosts. We then estimated the spillover risk by measuring the congruence between the viral and the eukaryotic host phylogenetic trees, and show that spillover risk increases with runoff from glacier melt, a proxy for climate change. Should climate change also shift species range of potential viral vectors and reservoirs northwards, the High Arctic could become fertile ground for emerging pandemics.}, }
@article {pmid36259205, year = {2022}, author = {Pérez-Méndez, N and Alcaraz, C and Bertolero, A and Català-Forner, M and Garibaldi, LA and González-Varo, JP and Rivaes, S and Martínez-Eixarch, M}, title = {Agricultural policies against invasive species generate contrasting outcomes for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {289}, number = {1985}, pages = {20221081}, pmid = {36259205}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Introduced Species ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Biodiversity ; Agriculture ; Methane ; *Oryza ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Direct consequences of biological invasions on biodiversity and the environment have been largely documented. Yet collateral indirect effects mediated by changes in agri-environmental policies aimed at combating invasions remain little explored. Here we assessed the effects of recent changes in water management in rice farming, which are aimed at buffering the impact of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea maculata, Lamarck) on greenhouse gas emissions and diversity of waterbird communities. We used observational data from a 2-year field monitoring (2015-2016) performed at the Ebro Delta regional scale. We found that drying rice fields reduced methane emission rates by 82% (2015) and 51% (2016), thereby reflecting the contribution of rice farming to climate change. However, there was a marked reduction (75% in 2015 and 57% in 2016) in waterbird diversity in dry fields compared with flooded fields, thus suggesting that post-invasion policies might hinder biodiversity conservation. Our results highlight the need for accounting for potential collateral effects during the policy decision-making process to design efficient agricultural management plans that lessen undesirable agri-environmental outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid36259122, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Equine veterinary journal}, volume = {55}, number = {1}, pages = {9-11}, doi = {10.1111/evj.13882}, pmid = {36259122}, issn = {2042-3306}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36258889, year = {2022}, author = {Zaremba, D and Kulesza, M and Herman, AM and Marczak, M and Kossowski, B and Budziszewska, M and Michałowski, JM and Klöckner, CA and Marchewka, A and Wierzba, M}, title = {A wise person plants a tree a day before the end of the world: coping with the emotional experience of climate change in Poland.}, journal = {Current psychology (New Brunswick, N.J.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-19}, pmid = {36258889}, issn = {1046-1310}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: It is now widely accepted that we are in a climate emergency, and the number of people who are concerned about this problem is growing. Yet, qualitative, in-depth studies to investigate the emotional response to climate change were conducted either in high-income, western countries, or in low-income countries particularly vulnerable to climate change. To our knowledge, there are no qualitative studies conducted in countries that share great barriers to decarbonization while being significant contributors to carbon emissions. Since climate change affects people globally, it is crucial to study this topic in a variety of socio-political contexts. In this work, we discuss views and reflections voiced by highly concerned residents of Poland, a Central European country that is a major contributor to Europe's carbon emissions. We conducted 40 semi-structured interviews with Polish residents, who self-identified as concerned about climate change. A variety of emotions related to climate change were identified and placed in the context of four major themes: dangers posed by climate change, the inevitability of its consequences, attributions of responsibility, and commonality of concern. Our findings highlight a variety of often ambivalent and conflicting emotions that change along with the participant's thoughts, experiences and behaviours. Furthermore, we describe a wide repertoire of coping strategies, which promoted well-being and sustained long-term engagement in climate action. As such, our work contributes to research on a broad array of climate-related emotions.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12144-022-03807-3.}, }
@article {pmid36258657, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Paediatric and perinatal epidemiology}, volume = {36}, number = {6}, pages = {879-881}, doi = {10.1111/ppe.12930}, pmid = {36258657}, issn = {1365-3016}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36258135, year = {2023}, author = {Mbouna, AD and Tamoffo, AT and Asare, EO and Lenouo, A and Tchawoua, C}, title = {Malaria metrics distribution under global warming: assessment of the VECTRI malaria model over Cameroon.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {67}, number = {1}, pages = {93-105}, pmid = {36258135}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Humans ; *Global Warming ; Cameroon/epidemiology ; Benchmarking ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Malaria is a critical health issue across the world and especially in Africa. Studies based on dynamical models helped to understand inter-linkages between this illness and climate. In this study, we evaluated the ability of the VECTRI community vector malaria model to simulate the spread of malaria in Cameroon using rainfall and temperature data from FEWS-ARC2 and ERA-interim, respectively. In addition, we simulated the model using five results of the dynamical downscaling of the regional climate model RCA4 within two time frames named near future (2035-2065) and far future (2071-2100), aiming to explore the potential effects of global warming on the malaria propagation over Cameroon. The evaluated metrics include the risk maps of the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and the parasite ratio (PR). During the historical period (1985-2005), the model satisfactorily reproduces the observed PR and EIR. Results of projections reveal that under global warming, heterogeneous changes feature the study area, with localized increases or decreases in PR and EIR. As the level of radiative forcing increases (from 2.6 to 8.5 W.m[-2]), the magnitude of change in PR and EIR also gradually intensifies. The occurrence of transmission peaks is projected in the temperature range of 26-28 °C. Moreover, PR and EIR vary depending on the three agro-climatic regions of the study area. VECTRI still needs to integrate other aspects of disease transmission, such as population mobility and intervention strategies, in order to be more relevant to support actions of decision-makers and policy makers.}, }
@article {pmid36258036, year = {2022}, author = {Qamar, MU}, title = {Pakistan floods: improve public's grasp of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {610}, number = {7932}, pages = {448}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-03292-5}, pmid = {36258036}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Floods ; Pakistan ; *Public Opinion ; *Knowledge ; }, }
@article {pmid36257814, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {RMD open}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {36257814}, issn = {2056-5933}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257812, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Thorax}, volume = {78}, number = {3}, pages = {217-218}, pmid = {36257812}, issn = {1468-3296}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257811, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Medical humanities}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {e13}, pmid = {36257811}, issn = {1473-4265}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257808, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Sexually transmitted infections}, volume = {99}, number = {1}, pages = {e1}, pmid = {36257808}, issn = {1472-3263}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257807, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ military health}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/military-2022-002290}, pmid = {36257807}, issn = {2633-3775}, }
@article {pmid36257792, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Journal of medical ethics}, volume = {48}, number = {12}, pages = {e2}, pmid = {36257792}, issn = {1473-4257}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257790, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {79}, number = {12}, pages = {793-794}, pmid = {36257790}, issn = {1470-7926}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257789, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o2459}, pmid = {36257789}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present, and future impacts of climate change}, }
@article {pmid36257788, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ quality &amp; safety}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {e1}, pmid = {36257788}, issn = {2044-5423}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257787, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Stroke and vascular neurology}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {178-180}, pmid = {36257787}, issn = {2059-8696}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257785, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and community health}, volume = {76}, number = {12}, pages = {969-970}, pmid = {36257785}, issn = {1470-2738}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257783, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ health &amp; care informatics}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36257783}, issn = {2632-1009}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257782, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Journal of medical genetics}, volume = {60}, number = {1}, pages = {11-12}, pmid = {36257782}, issn = {1468-6244}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257781, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Family medicine and community health}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {36257781}, issn = {2009-8774}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257780, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ open quality}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {36257780}, issn = {2399-6641}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257778, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Australian journal of rural health}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {836-838}, doi = {10.1111/ajr.12931}, pmid = {36257778}, issn = {1440-1584}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257776, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ sexual &amp; reproductive health}, volume = {49}, number = {2}, pages = {71-73}, pmid = {36257776}, issn = {2515-2009}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257774, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Emergency medicine journal : EMJ}, volume = {39}, number = {12}, pages = {e10}, pmid = {36257774}, issn = {1472-0213}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257773, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {European journal of hospital pharmacy : science and practice}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {e14}, pmid = {36257773}, issn = {2047-9956}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257772, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {e069170}, pmid = {36257772}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257771, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Archives of disease in childhood}, volume = {108}, number = {2}, pages = {e1}, pmid = {36257771}, issn = {1468-2044}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257768, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Evidence-based mental health}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {e2}, pmid = {36257768}, issn = {1468-960X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257767, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Nutrition &amp; dietetics: the journal of the Dietitians Association of Australia}, volume = {80}, number = {2}, pages = {112-115}, doi = {10.1111/1747-0080.12783}, pmid = {36257767}, issn = {1747-0080}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257766, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {7}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {36257766}, issn = {2059-7908}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257764, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Evidence-based nursing}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {e1}, pmid = {36257764}, issn = {1468-9618}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257726, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {217}, number = {9}, pages = {482-483}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.51740}, pmid = {36257726}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257725, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ supportive &amp; palliative care}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/spcare-2022-004028}, pmid = {36257725}, issn = {2045-4368}, }
@article {pmid36257723, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BMJ evidence-based medicine}, volume = {27}, number = {6}, pages = {317-318}, pmid = {36257723}, issn = {2515-4478}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257722, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology}, volume = {130}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1111/1471-0528.17306}, pmid = {36257722}, issn = {1471-0528}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257720, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Annals of the rheumatic diseases}, volume = {82}, number = {1}, pages = {e27}, pmid = {36257720}, issn = {1468-2060}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257706, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The British journal of ophthalmology}, volume = {107}, number = {2}, pages = {151-152}, pmid = {36257706}, issn = {1468-2079}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257705, year = {2023}, author = {Zielinski, C and , }, title = {COP27 climate change conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {British journal of sports medicine}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, pages = {e1}, pmid = {36257705}, issn = {1473-0480}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257703, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {44}, number = {4}, pages = {728-730}, pmid = {36257703}, issn = {1741-3850}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257702, year = {2022}, author = {Laybourn-Langton, L and Muhia, J and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Age and ageing}, volume = {51}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {36257702}, issn = {1468-2834}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257691, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {American journal of epidemiology}, volume = {192}, number = {7}, pages = {1033-1035}, pmid = {36257691}, issn = {1476-6256}, mesh = {Humans ; Africa ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36257686, year = {2023}, author = {Ntumba, JK and Laybourn-Langton, L and Muhia, J and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {Alcohol and alcoholism (Oxford, Oxfordshire)}, volume = {58}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, pmid = {36257686}, issn = {1464-3502}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257679, year = {2022}, author = {Mahase, E}, title = {UN warns of "devastating" effect of covid-19, conflict, and climate change on women's and children's health.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o2497}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2497}, pmid = {36257679}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Child ; Female ; Humans ; *Child Health ; Climate Change ; Women's Health ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid36257669, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {78}, number = {1}, pages = {17-19}, doi = {10.1111/all.15523}, pmid = {36257669}, issn = {1398-9995}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257668, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {Schizophrenia bulletin}, volume = {49}, number = {2}, pages = {231-233}, pmid = {36257668}, issn = {1745-1701}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257667, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Occupational medicine (Oxford, England)}, volume = {73}, number = {1}, pages = {4-6}, pmid = {36257667}, issn = {1471-8405}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257666, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Medical mycology}, volume = {61}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {36257666}, issn = {1460-2709}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257665, year = {2022}, author = {Laybourn-Langton, L and Muhia, J and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The American journal of clinical nutrition}, volume = {116}, number = {6}, pages = {1457-1459}, pmid = {36257665}, issn = {1938-3207}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257664, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {391-393}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.14463}, pmid = {36257664}, issn = {1879-3479}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257663, year = {2022}, author = {Laybourn-Langton, L and Muhia, J and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.)}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {2067-2069}, pmid = {36257663}, issn = {2156-5376}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257662, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {European journal of cardiovascular nursing}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {e12-e13}, doi = {10.1093/eurjcn/zvac094}, pmid = {36257662}, issn = {1873-1953}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257661, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Brain : a journal of neurology}, volume = {145}, number = {12}, pages = {4141-4143}, pmid = {36257661}, issn = {1460-2156}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257660, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The Gerontologist}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/geront/gnac156}, pmid = {36257660}, issn = {1758-5341}, }
@article {pmid36257658, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {American journal of clinical pathology}, volume = {159}, number = {1}, pages = {3-5}, pmid = {36257658}, issn = {1943-7722}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257657, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The International journal of pharmacy practice}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {492-494}, doi = {10.1093/ijpp/riac079}, pmid = {36257657}, issn = {2042-7174}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257656, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {European heart journal}, volume = {44}, number = {47}, pages = {4911-4912}, pmid = {36257656}, issn = {1522-9645}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257655, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Cardiovascular research}, volume = {119}, number = {5}, pages = {1103-1104}, pmid = {36257655}, issn = {1755-3245}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257654, year = {2023}, author = {Laybourn-Langton, L and Muhia, J and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {The Journal of nutrition}, volume = {152}, number = {12}, pages = {2631-2633}, pmid = {36257654}, issn = {1541-6100}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257653, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {European journal of preventive cardiology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {98-100}, doi = {10.1093/eurjpc/zwac230}, pmid = {36257653}, issn = {2047-4881}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257652, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {European heart journal. Acute cardiovascular care}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {141-142}, pmid = {36257652}, issn = {2048-8734}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257649, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {Laboratory medicine}, volume = {54}, number = {1}, pages = {3-5}, pmid = {36257649}, issn = {1943-7730}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257648, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {245-246}, pmid = {36257648}, issn = {1532-2092}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257647, year = {2023}, author = {Laybourn-Langton, L and Muhia, J and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {European heart journal. Quality of care &amp; clinical outcomes}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {97-98}, pmid = {36257647}, issn = {2058-1742}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257646, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences}, volume = {77}, number = {12}, pages = {2417-2419}, pmid = {36257646}, issn = {1758-535X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257644, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent Action Needed for Africa and the World.}, journal = {Inflammatory bowel diseases}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {174-176}, pmid = {36257644}, issn = {1536-4844}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257643, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {European heart journal. Cardiovascular Imaging}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {15-16}, pmid = {36257643}, issn = {2047-2412}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257640, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mavis Mulaudzi, F and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Sahar Yassien, M and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Nicotine &amp; tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {361-363}, pmid = {36257640}, issn = {1469-994X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257638, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Nutrition reviews}, volume = {81}, number = {7}, pages = {755-757}, pmid = {36257638}, issn = {1753-4887}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257637, year = {2022}, author = {Zielinski, C and Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L}, title = {COP27 climate change conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Acta paediatrica (Oslo, Norway : 1992)}, volume = {111}, number = {12}, pages = {2259-2261}, doi = {10.1111/apa.16552}, pmid = {36257637}, issn = {1651-2227}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257636, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Rheumatology (Oxford, England)}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {1721-1723}, pmid = {36257636}, issn = {1462-0332}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257635, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {2000-2002}, pmid = {36257635}, issn = {1527-974X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257633, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {European journal of cardio-thoracic surgery : official journal of the European Association for Cardio-thoracic Surgery}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {36257633}, issn = {1873-734X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257632, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Kayembe Ntumba, JM and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Human reproduction (Oxford, England)}, volume = {37}, number = {12}, pages = {2725-2727}, pmid = {36257632}, issn = {1460-2350}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257631, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {British journal of clinical pharmacology}, volume = {88}, number = {12}, pages = {5093-5095}, doi = {10.1111/bcp.15539}, pmid = {36257631}, issn = {1365-2125}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36257630, year = {2022}, author = {Tumwine, J and Mash, B and Okonofua, F and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Malaudzi, M and Yonga, P and Rashidian, A and Adawy, ME and Haileamlak, A and Yassien, MS and Ofori-Adjei, D and Snouber, A and Sidibe, S and Gbakima, AA and Zakhama, L and Erhabor, GE and Laybourn-Langton, L and Muhia, J and Zielinski, C and Atwoli, L}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {International nursing review}, volume = {69}, number = {4}, pages = {417-419}, doi = {10.1111/inr.12809}, pmid = {36257630}, issn = {1466-7657}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257629, year = {2023}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and James Kigera,  and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Maternal &amp; child nutrition}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {e13445}, pmid = {36257629}, issn = {1740-8709}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257625, year = {2022}, author = {Atwoli, L and Erhabor, GE and Gbakima, AA and Haileamlak, A and Ntumba, JK and Kigera, J and Laybourn-Langton, L and Mash, B and Muhia, J and Mulaudzi, FM and Ofori-Adjei, D and Okonofua, F and Rashidian, A and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Snouber, A and Tumwine, J and Yassien, MS and Yonga, P and Zakhama, L and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {International journal of older people nursing}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {e12504}, doi = {10.1111/opn.12504}, pmid = {36257625}, issn = {1748-3743}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36257416, year = {2023}, author = {Song, WH and Li, JJ}, title = {The effects of intraspecific variation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {857}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {159513}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159513}, pmid = {36257416}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Phylogeography ; Biodiversity ; Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {As global climate change is altering the distribution range of macroalgae across the globe, it is critical to assess its impact on species range shifts to inform the biodiversity conservation of macroalgae. Latitude/environmental gradients could cause intraspecific variability, which may result in distinct responses to climate change. It remains unclear whether geographical variation occurs in the response of species' populations to climate change. We tested this assumption using the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii, a habitat-forming macroalgae encompassing multiple divergent lineages along the Northwest Pacific. Previous studies revealed a distinct lineage of S. thunbergii in rear-edge populations. Given the phylogeographic structure and temperature gradients, we divided these populations into the southern and northern groups. We assessed the physiological responses of the two groups to temperature changes and estimated their niche differences using n-dimensional hypervolumes. A higher photosynthetic rate and antioxidative abilities were detected in the southern group of S. thunbergii than in the northern group. In addition, significant niche differentiation was detected between the two groups, suggesting the possibility for local adaptation. Given these results, we inferred that the southern group (rear-edge populations) may be more resilient to climate change. To examine climate-driven range shifts of S. thunbergii, we constructed species- and lineage-level species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions of both levels showed considerable distribution contracts along the Chinese coasts in the future. For the southern group, the lineage-level model predicted less habitat loss than the species-level model. Our results highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation in climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal species.}, }
@article {pmid36255568, year = {2022}, author = {Ho, BQ and Nguyen, KD and Vu, KHN and Nguyen, TT and Nguyen, HTT and Ngo, DDN and Tran, HTH and Le, PH and Nguyen, QH and Ngo, QX and Huynh, NTT and Nguyen, HD}, title = {Apply MIKE 11 model to study impacts of climate change on water resources and develop adaptation plan in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: a case of Can Tho city.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {Suppl 2}, pages = {765}, pmid = {36255568}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {NVTX TX 2022-24-01//Viet Nam National University Ho Chi Minh City/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Water Resources ; Vietnam ; Environmental Monitoring ; Water ; }, abstract = {Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta is in the top ten areas affected by climate change. Therefore, assessing climate change impacts, social and economic activities require proposed solutions to respond to climate change. This study aims to (i) apply the MIKE 11 model (Hydrodynamic module and Advection-Dispersion module) to simulate the impacts of climate change scenarios on water resources in Can Tho city; (ii) calculate water balance in Can Tho city; and (iii) suggest climate change adaptation plan for sustainable social-economic activities of the city. The results show that when the rainfall changes due to climate change, the flow rate tends to decrease at high tide and increase at low tide. When the sea level rises due to climate change, the flow rate tends to increase at high tide and decrease at low tide. For 2030, the flow will decrease up to 15.6% and 14.3% at the low tide period for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 compared to the present, respectively. The flow will increase up to 63.5% and 58.9% at the high tide period for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 compared to the present, respectively. The water demand evaluation shows that the water resource reserve in Can Tho city meets water demands in current and future scenarios under climate change. While rainwater and groundwater can provide enough water in the rainy season, the city has to use surface water during the dry season due to a lack of rainwater. Of these, agriculture contributes the most water demands (85%). Eight adaptation measures to climate change for Can Tho city are developed from 2021 to 2050.}, }
@article {pmid36255535, year = {2022}, author = {Minh, HVT and Van Ty, T and Avtar, R and Kumar, P and Le, KN and Ngan, NVC and Khanh, LH and Nguyen, NC and Downes, NK}, title = {Implications of climate change and drought on water requirements in a semi-mountainous region of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {Suppl 2}, pages = {766}, pmid = {36255535}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Vietnam ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Water Supply ; Agriculture/methods ; Water ; Asian People ; }, abstract = {As the backbone of Vietnam's economy, the country has recently established a number of policies for promoting and investing in smart agriculture in the Mekong Delta, the country's largest agricultural hub, to foster overall socio-economic development. However, water remains a critical constraint for crop production, with progress being hindered by water scarcity and quality issues, and compounded by socio-economic transformation and climate change. Considering these challenges, this study used the CROPWAT model and a wide spectrum of climate change scenarios to investigate future total water demands in the 2030s and 2050s as well as drought levels in two underdeveloped semi-mountainous reservoir catchments, i.e., O Ta Soc and O Tuk Sa in An Giang province. The results suggest that the usable storage capacity of the O Ta Soc reservoir will increase to 650,000 m[3] to meet water supply demands under all climate change scenarios and the medium-term, moderate drought conditions. The useable storage capacity of the O Tuk Sa reservoir will also be increased to 880,000 m[3] and the irrigation area would see a marked 70% reduction compared to its design irrigation. Under these circumstances, the O Tuk Sa reservoir will continue to supply water under all climate change scenarios and medium-term droughts. As a core element for strategic planning and to ensure efficient management of water resources, the results highlight the importance of estimating potential runoff and rainfall in semi-mountainous reservoir catchments under various drought conditions in order to propose the suitable expansion of the useable water storage capacities.}, }
@article {pmid36255528, year = {2022}, author = {Ashok, S and Behera, MD and Tewari, HR and Jana, C}, title = {Developing ecotourism sustainability maximization (ESM) model: a safe minimum standard for climate change mitigation in the Indian Himalayas.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {12}, pages = {914}, pmid = {36255528}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; }, abstract = {Recently, ecotourism has been identified as an adaptation strategy for mitigating climate change impacts, as it can optimize carbon sequestration, biodiversity recovery, and livelihood benefits and generate new opportunities for the sustenance of the economy, environment, and society of the area endowed with natural resources and cultural values. With the growing responsibility at the global level, ecotourism resource management (ERM) becomes inevitable for its sustainable requirements. The integration of ecological and socio-economic factors is vital for ERM, as has been demonstrated by developing an Ecotourism Sustainability Maximization Model for an area under study, that is the Yuksam-Dzongri corridor (also known as Kangchendzonga Base Camp Trek), in the Khangchendzonga Biosphere Reserve (KBR), Sikkim, India. This model is based on the earlier developed ecotourism sustainability assessment (ESA) framework by the authors, which is based on the hierarchical relationship among ecotourism principles, criteria, indicators, and verifiers. Employing such relationships, this paper attempts to maximize ecotourism sustainability (ES) as a function of its sustainability principles, criteria, indicators, and verifiers, subject to the constraints identified through the safe minimum standard (SMS) approach by employing linear programming. Using 58 indicators as decision variables and 114 constraints, the model resulted in a maximum level of achievable ES with a score of 84.6%, allowing the resultant optimum values of the indicators to be maintained at the operational level. A central tenet of the model is the collective responsibility and adoption of a holistic approach involving the government, tourists, tourism enterprises, and local people.}, }
@article {pmid36254784, year = {2023}, author = {Mahapatra, B and Chaudhuri, T and Saggurti, N}, title = {Climate change vulnerability, and health of women and children: Evidence from India using district level data.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {437-446}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.14515}, pmid = {36254784}, issn = {1879-3479}, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Humans ; Child ; Female ; *Climate Change ; Spatial Analysis ; *Prenatal Care ; India ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To understand how climate change vulnerability is associated with women and children's health (WCH) at the district level in India.<br><br>METHODS: The district-specific climate change vulnerability index was mapped to the district level NFHS-5 data (N&#xa0;=&#x2009;674). Fractional regression and spatial analyses were performed to examine the strength of association and the presence of geographic clustering.<br><br>RESULTS: Bivariate analysis revealed that the levels of WCH indicators were lower in districts with a high vulnerability index than in those with a low vulnerability index. Multivariable analyses suggested that with a 1% increase in the vulnerability index, the proportion of modern contraceptive use was reduced by 0.22, four or more prenatal care visits by 0.14, postnatal care by 0.11, and full immunization by 0.12; whereas wasting and underweight proportions increased by 0.07 and 0.10, respectively. The spatial analysis found that in about 70-118 districts, mostly in eastern India, where climate vulnerability was high the WCH outcomes were also poor.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There is a macro-level association between climate change vulnerability and WCH, as districts that had high levels of climate change vulnerability also performed poorly in WCH. There is a need for an integrated approach that considers geography-specific climate change threats to develop health programs.}, }
@article {pmid36254375, year = {2023}, author = {Rothschild, J and Haase, E}, title = {Women's mental health and climate change Part II: Socioeconomic stresses of climate change and eco-anxiety for women and their children.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {414-420}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.14514}, pmid = {36254375}, issn = {1879-3479}, mesh = {Humans ; Female ; Child ; *Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; Women's Health ; Anxiety/epidemiology ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a significant public health crisis that is both rooted in pre-existing inequitable socioeconomic and racial systems and will further worsen these social injustices. In the face of acute and slow-moving natural disasters, women, and particularly women of color, will be more susceptible to gender-based violence, displacement, and other socioeconomic stressors, all of which have adverse mental health outcomes. Among the social consequences of climate change, eco-anxiety resulting from these negative impacts is also increasingly a significant factor in family planning and reproductive justice, as well as disruptions of the feminine connection to nature that numerous cultures historically and currently honor. This narrative review will discuss these sociologic factors and also touch on ways that practitioners can become involved in climate-related advocacy for the physical and mental well-being of their patients.}, }
@article {pmid36254118, year = {2022}, author = {Dee, SG and Nabizadeh, E and Nittrouer, CL and Baldwin, JW and Li, C and Gaviria, L and Guo, S and Lu, K and Saunders-Shultz, BM and Gurwitz, E and Samarth, G and Weinberger, KR}, title = {Increasing Health Risks During Outdoor Sports Due To Climate Change in Texas: Projections Versus Attitudes.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {e2022GH000595}, pmid = {36254118}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Extreme heat is a recognized threat to human health. This study examines projected future trends of multiple measures of extreme heat across Texas throughout the next century, and evaluates the expected climate changes alongside Texas athletic staff (coach and athletic trainer) attitudes toward heat and climate change. Numerical climate simulations from the recently published Community Earth System Model version 2 and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to predict changes in summer temperatures, heat indices, and wet bulb temperatures across Texas and also within specific metropolitan areas. A survey examining attitudes toward the effects of climate change on athletic programs and student athlete health was also distributed to high-school and university athletic staff. Heat indices are projected to increase beyond what is considered healthy/safe limits for outdoor sports activity by the mid-to-late 21st century. Survey results reveal a general understanding and acceptance of climate change and a need for adjustments in accordance with more dangerous heat-related events. However, a portion of athletic staff still do not acknowledge the changing climate and its implications for student athlete health and their athletic programs. Enhancing climate change and health communication across the state may initiate important changes to athletic programs (e.g., timing, duration, intensity, and location of practices), which should be made in accordance with increasingly dangerous temperatures and weather conditions. This work employs a novel interdisciplinary approach to evaluate future heat projections alongside attitudes from athletic communities toward climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36253444, year = {2022}, author = {Albo-Puigserver, M and Bueno-Pardo, J and Pinto, M and Monteiro, JN and Ovelheiro, A and Teodósio, MA and Leitão, F}, title = {Ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of fishing fleet landings to climate change across regions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {17360}, pmid = {36253444}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fisheries ; *Hunting ; }, abstract = {The degree of exposure of fishing communities to environmental changes can be partially determined by the vulnerability of the target species and the landings composition. Hence, identifying the species that ecologically most contribute to the vulnerability of the landings are key steps to evaluate the risk posed by climate change. We analyse the temporal variability in intrinsic sensitivity and the ecological vulnerability of the Portuguese fisheries landings, considering the species proportions derived both from the weights and revenues. To account for the diversification of species of each fleet, we explored the species dependence of the fishery in combination with the vulnerability of them. The analyses were carried out separately for three fleet typologies and three regions. Opposite to what has been observed at a global scale, the ecological sensitivity of the fisheries landings between 1989 and 2015 did not display a decline across areas or fishing fleets. Considering each fleet independently, for trawling, where average vulnerability was lower than in the other fleets, the sensitivity of the landings increased since the 2000s. On the other hand, the high vulnerability found in multi-gear fleets was compensated by diversification of the species caught, while purse-seine fleets targeted low vulnerability species but presented a high fishery dependence on few species. The results highlight the importance of combining information on ecological vulnerability and diversification of fishing resources at a regional scale while providing a measure of the ecological exposure to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36252019, year = {2022}, author = {Palagi, E and Coronese, M and Lamperti, F and Roventini, A}, title = {Climate change and the nonlinear impact of precipitation anomalies on income inequality.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {43}, pages = {e2203595119}, pmid = {36252019}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Floods ; Income ; }, abstract = {Climate anomalies, such as floods and droughts, as well as gradual temperature changes have been shown to adversely affect economies and societies. Although studies find that climate change might increase global inequality by widening disparities across countries, its effects on within-country income distribution have been little investigated, as has the role of rainfall anomalies. Here, we show that extreme levels of precipitation exacerbate within-country income inequality. The strength and direction of the effect depends on the agricultural intensity of an economy. In high-agricultural-intensity countries, climate anomalies that negatively impact the agricultural sector lower incomes at the bottom end of the distribution and generate greater income inequality. Our results indicate that a 1.5-SD increase in precipitation from average values has a 35-times-stronger impact on the bottom income shares for countries with high employment in agriculture compared to countries with low employment in the agricultural sector. Projections with modeled future precipitation and temperature reveal highly heterogeneous patterns on a global scale, with income inequality worsening in high-agricultural-intensity economies, particularly in Africa. Our findings suggest that rainfall anomalies and the degree of dependence on agriculture are crucial factors in assessing the negative impacts of climate change on the bottom of the income distribution.}, }
@article {pmid36251993, year = {2022}, author = {Smirnov, O and Hsieh, PH}, title = {COVID-19, climate change, and the finite pool of worry in 2019 to 2021 Twitter discussions.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {43}, pages = {e2210988119}, pmid = {36251993}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Anxiety/epidemiology ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; Emotions ; Humans ; Pandemics ; *Social Media ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change mitigation has been one of the world's most salient issues for the past three decades. However, global policy attention has been partially diverted to address the COVID-19 pandemic for the past 2 y. Here, we explore the impact of the pandemic on the frequency and content of climate change discussions on Twitter for the period of 2019 to 2021. Consistent with the "finite pool of worry" hypothesis both at the annual level and on a daily basis, a larger number of COVID-19 cases and deaths is associated with a smaller number of "climate change" tweets. Climate change discussion on Twitter decreased, despite 1) a larger Twitter daily active usage in 2020 and 2021, 2) greater coverage of climate change in the traditional media in 2021, 3) a larger number of North Atlantic Ocean hurricanes, and 4) a larger wildland fires area in the United States in 2020 and 2021. Further evidence supporting the finite pool of worry is the significant relationship between daily COVID-19 cases/deaths on the one hand and the public sentiment and emotional content of climate change tweets on the other. In particular, increasing COVID-19 numbers decrease negative sentiment in climate change tweets and the emotions related to worry and anxiety, such as fear and anger.}, }
@article {pmid36251085, year = {2022}, author = {Das, P and Behera, MD and Bhaskaran, PK and Roy, PS}, title = {Forest cover resilience to climate change over India using the MC2 dynamic vegetation model.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {12}, pages = {903}, pmid = {36251085}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {It is imperative to understand the climate change impact on the forest ecosystem to develop appropriate mitigation and management strategies. We have employed a process-based dynamic vegetation modeling (MAPSS-CENTURY: MC) approach to project change in vegetation life forms under projected climate conditions that attained 81% overall accuracy. The present and projected climate conditions suggested highly resilient/stable forest covers in wet climate regimes and moderately resilient in dry semi-arid regions. Several forested grids in the seasonally dry tropical forest in the Eastern Ghats and dry Deccan peninsula regions are estimated to be less resilient, which may experience a regime shift toward scrub and grassland. The future prediction demonstrated an upward temperature shift in the Western Himalayas and trans-Himalaya, which may facilitate forest spread at higher elevations. Although the forest cover resilience may increase in future climate conditions, the disturbances in several regions in the Deccan Peninsula and the Eastern Ghats may trigger forest to scrub and grassland transition. The inaccuracy in model simulation in the Western Himalayas could be attributed to coarse resolution grids (0.5°) failing to resolve the narrow climate niches. The spatially explicit model simulation provides opportunities to develop long-term climate change adaptation and conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid36249277, year = {2022}, author = {Jaramillo, F and Piemontese, L and Berghuijs, WR and Wang-Erlandsson, L and Greve, P and Wang, Z}, title = {Fewer Basins Will Follow Their Budyko Curves Under Global Warming and Fossil-Fueled Development.}, journal = {Water resources research}, volume = {58}, number = {8}, pages = {e2021WR031825}, pmid = {36249277}, issn = {0043-1397}, abstract = {The Budyko framework consists of a curvilinear relationship between the evaporative ratio (i.e., actual evaporation over precipitation) and the aridity index (i.e., potential evaporation over precipitation) and defines evaporation's water and energy limits. A basin's movement within the Budyko space illustrates its hydroclimatic change and helps identify the main drivers of change. On the one hand, long-term aridity changes drive evaporative ratio changes, moving basins along their Budyko curves. On the other hand, historical human development can cause river basins to deviate from their curves. The question is if basins will deviate or follow their Budyko curves under the future effects of global warming and related human developments. To answer this, we quantify the movement in the Budyko space of 405 river basins from 1901-1950 to 2051-2100 based on the outputs of seven models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 6 (CMIP6). We account for the implications of using different potential evaporation models and study low- and high-emissions scenarios. We find considerable differences of movement in Budyko space regarding direction and intensity when using the two estimates of potential evaporation. However, regardless of the potential evaporation estimate and the scenario used, most river basins will not follow their reference Budyko curves (>72%). Furthermore, the number of basins not following their curves increases under high greenhouse gas emissions and fossil-fueled development SP585 and across dry and wet basin groups. We elaborate on the possible explanations for a large number of basins not following their Budyko curves.}, }
@article {pmid36248440, year = {2022}, author = {Harrington, R and Nugier, A and Khamzina, K and Guimond, S and Monceau, S and Streith, M}, title = {Understanding individual and collective response to climate change: The role of a self-other mismatch.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {935209}, pmid = {36248440}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Several scientists have shown the importance of mitigating global warming and have highlighted a need for major social change, particularly when it comes to meat consumption and collective engagement. In the present study (N = 486), we conducted a cross-sectional study to test the mismatch model, which aims at explaining what motivates individuals to participate in normative change. This model stipulates that perceiving a self-other difference in pro-environmental attitudes is the starting point and can motivate people to have high pro-environmental intentions. This mismatch effect is explained by participants' willingness to participate in normative and social change: people that perceive a gap between their personal attitude and the social norm should be more willing to participate in normative change. This should then motivate them to have high pro-environmental intentions on an individual and group level. The results confirm the hypothesized model on an individual and group level and explain how people can be motivated to participate in normative change. Implications of these findings and the need for further studies are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid36248289, year = {2022}, author = {Hong, YJ and Min, YK and Lee, S and Choi, S}, title = {Expanded Orientation of Urban Public Health Policy in the Climate Change Era: Response to and Prevention of Heat Wave in Paris and Seoul: A Brief Review.}, journal = {Iranian journal of public health}, volume = {51}, number = {7}, pages = {1461-1468}, pmid = {36248289}, issn = {2251-6093}, abstract = {The policies of response to and prevention of heat waves in France in 2003 and in South Korea in 2018 were compared and reviewed to see how public health policy orientation was being expanded in connection with urban and social policies. The statistics of the patients with heat illness and resulted death in France in 2003 and South Korea in 2018 were analyzed. The results and limitations of the French and Korean responses to heat waves were compared and discussed. The heat wave in France in 2003 caused an excess death of 14,802. The 2018 heat wave in South Korea resulted in 4,526 cases of heat illness and 48 deaths. France's National Heat wave Plan established in 2004 introduced the warning system and strengthened support for the vulnerable. The heat wave in South Korea in 2018 revealed the success and limitations of the national measures that have been gradually implemented since the mid-2000s. Both France and South Korea are making efforts in preventing heat illness and managing health risk through the warning systems, providing public and social support for the vulnerable, and expanding urban infrastructure. Paris puts priority on the long-term prevention of heat wave, in the wider context of climate change response, while Seoul shows a relatively strong point in immediate infrastructural expansion. In order to respond to the climate crisis and the following health risk, public health policies need to be contrived with deeper connection with urban social policies for sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid36247624, year = {2022}, author = {Celis-Plá, PSM and Trabal, A and Navarrete, C and Troncoso, M and Moenne, F and Zúñiga, A and Figueroa, FL and Sáez, CA}, title = {Daily changes on seasonal ecophysiological responses of the intertidal brown macroalga Lessonia spicata: Implications of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {941061}, pmid = {36247624}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Global climate change is expected to have detrimental effects on coastal ecosystems, with impacts observable at the local and regional levels, depending on factors such as light, temperature, and nutrients. Shifts in dominance between primary producers that can capitalize on carbon availability for photosynthesis will have knock-on effects on marine ecosystems, affecting their ecophysiological responses and biological processes. Here, we study the ecophysiological vulnerability, photoacclimation capacity, and tolerance responses as ecophysiological responses of the intertidal kelp Lessonia spicata (Phaeophyceae, Laminariales) during a year through different seasons (autumn, winter, spring, and summer) in the Pacific Ocean (central Chile). Six different daily cycle experiments were carried out within each season. A battery of different biochemical assays associated with antioxidant responses and in-vivo chlorophyll a fluorescence parameter showed that during spring and summer, there was an increase in photosynthetic capacity in the macroalgae, although their responses varied depending on light and nutrient availability in the course of the year. Lessonia spicata showed maximal photosynthesis and a similar photoinhibition pattern in summer compared to the other seasons, and the contents of nitrate and phosphorous in seawater were less in winter. Thus, high irradiance during spring and summer displayed a higher maximal electron transport rate (ETRmax), irradiance of saturation (Ek), non-photochemical quenching (NPQmax), nitrogen and carbon contents, and photoprotector compound levels. Antioxidant activity increased also in summer, the seasonal period with the highest oxidative stress conditions, i.e., the highest level of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). In contrast, under low irradiance, i.e., wintertime conditions, L. spicata demonstrated lower concentrations of the photosynthetic pigments such as chlorophyll a and carotenoids. Our study suggests that macroalgae that are subjected to increased irradiance and water temperature under lower nutrient availability mediated by seasonal changes (expected to worsen under climate change) respond with higher values of productivity, pigment contents, and photoprotective compounds. Thus, our findings strengthen the available evidence to predict that algae in the order Laminariales, specifically L. spicata (kelp), could better proliferate, with lower vulnerability and greater acclimation, than other marine species subject to future expected conditions associated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36247109, year = {2022}, author = {Tovar, C and Carril, AF and Gutiérrez, AG and Ahrends, A and Fita, L and Zaninelli, P and Flombaum, P and Abarzúa, AM and Alarcón, D and Aschero, V and Báez, S and Barros, A and Carilla, J and Ferrero, ME and Flantua, SGA and Gonzáles, P and Menéndez, CG and Pérez-Escobar, OA and Pauchard, A and Ruscica, RC and Särkinen, T and Sörensson, AA and Srur, A and Villalba, R and Hollingsworth, PM}, title = {Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities.}, journal = {Journal of biogeography}, volume = {49}, number = {8}, pages = {1420-1442}, pmid = {36247109}, issn = {0305-0270}, abstract = {AIM: Climate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes. Location: Andes. Taxon: Plants.<br><br>METHODS: We (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models.<br><br>RESULTS: Future climatic changes (2040-2070) are projected to be stronger at high-elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4&#xb0;C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2&#xb0;C. Under this worst-case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%-23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high-elevation areas, a lack of high-resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Climate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region-wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes.}, }
@article {pmid36246210, year = {2022}, author = {Shree, B and Jayakrishnan, U and Bhushan, S}, title = {Impact of key parameters involved with plant-microbe interaction in context to global climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1008451}, pmid = {36246210}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Anthropogenic activities have a critical influence on climate change that directly or indirectly impacts plant and microbial diversity on our planet. Due to climate change, there is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme environmental events such as temperature rise, drought, and precipitation. The increase in greenhouse gas emissions such as CO2, CH4, NOx, water vapor, increase in global temperature, and change in rainfall patterns have impacted soil-plant-microbe interactions, which poses a serious threat to food security. Microbes in the soil play an essential role in plants' resilience to abiotic and biotic stressors. The soil microbial communities are sensitive and responsive to these stressors. Therefore, a systemic approach to climate adaptation will be needed which acknowledges the multidimensional nature of plant-microbe-environment interactions. In the last two scores of years, there has been an enhancement in the understanding of plant's response to microbes at physiological, biochemical, and molecular levels due to the availability of techniques and tools. This review highlights some of the critical factors influencing plant-microbe interactions under stress. The association and response of microbe and plants as a result of several stresses such as temperature, salinity, metal toxicity, and greenhouse gases are also depicted. New tools to study the molecular complexity of these interactions, such as genomic and sequencing approaches, which provide researchers greater accuracy, reproducibility, and flexibility for exploring plant-microbe-environment interactions under a changing climate, are also discussed in the review, which will be helpful in the development of resistant crops/plants in present and future.}, }
@article {pmid36244475, year = {2023}, author = {Bozzolan, E and Holcombe, EA and Pianosi, F and Marchesini, I and Alvioli, M and Wagener, T}, title = {A mechanistic approach to include climate change and unplanned urban sprawl in landslide susceptibility maps.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {858}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {159412}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159412}, pmid = {36244475}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Landslides ; Climate Change ; Housing ; Caribbean Region ; }, abstract = {Empirical evidence shows that climate, deforestation and informal housing (i.e. unregulated construction practices typical of fast-growing developing countries) can increase landslide occurrence. However, these environmental changes have not been considered jointly and in a dynamic way in regional or national landslide susceptibility assessments. This gap might be due to a lack of models that can represent large areas (>100km[2]) in a computationally efficient way, while simultaneously considering the effect of rainfall infiltration, vegetation and housing. We therefore suggest a new method that uses a hillslope-scale mechanistic model to generate regional susceptibility maps under changing climate and informal urbanisation, which also accounts for existing uncertainties. An application in the Caribbean shows that the landslide susceptibility estimated with the new method and associated with a past rainfall-intensive hurricane identifies ~67.5 % of the landslides observed after that event. We subsequently demonstrate that the hypothetical expansion of informal housing (including deforestation) increases landslide susceptibility more (+20 %) than intensified rainstorms due to climate change (+6 %). However, their combined effect leads to a much greater landslide occurrence (up to +40 %) than if the two drivers were considered independently. Results demonstrate the importance of including both land cover and climate change in landslide susceptibility assessments. Furthermore, by modelling mechanistically the overlooked dynamics between urban growth and climate change, our methodology can provide quantitative information of the main landslide drivers (e.g. quantifying the relative impact of deforestation vs informal urbanisation) and locations where these drivers are or might become most detrimental for slope stability. Such information is often missing in data-scarce developing countries but is key for supporting national long-term environmental planning, for targeting financial efforts, as well as for fostering national or international investments for landslide mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid36244044, year = {2022}, author = {Friel, S}, title = {Climate change, society, and health inequities.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {217}, number = {9}, pages = {466-468}, pmid = {36244044}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Health Inequities ; Social Determinants of Health ; Health Policy ; Health Status Disparities ; }, }
@article {pmid36243191, year = {2022}, author = {Li, X and Yao, S and Wang, Z and Jiang, X and Song, Y and Chang, SX}, title = {Polyethylene microplastic and biochar interactively affect the global warming potential of soil greenhouse gas emissions.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {315}, number = {}, pages = {120433}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2022.120433}, pmid = {36243191}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Soil/chemistry ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Microplastics ; Plastics ; Global Warming ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Manure ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Polyethylene ; Ecosystem ; Charcoal/chemistry ; Agriculture ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Emerging microplastic pollution and biochar application result in their coexistence in the soil. In this study, a polyethylene microplastic, a straw biochar, and a manure biochar were applied alone or in combination to an agricultural soil to explore their interactive effects on microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen, bacterial community composition, structure and function, and the resultant greenhouse gas emissions in a 45-day laboratory incubation. At the end of incubation, the co-application of microplastic and biochar suppressed the global warming potential of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions compared with the sum of their application alone. Specifically, coexisting with microplastics increased N2O emissions by 37.5% but decreased CH4 emissions by 35.8% in the straw biochar added soil, and decreased N2O, CO2 and CH4 emissions by 24.8, 6.2, and 65.2%, respectively, in the manure biochar added soil. A correlation network analysis illustrated that the increased global warming potential was related to the changed bacterial function and microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen in the treatments with straw biochar and/or polyethylene microplastic added, and by the changed bacterial community structure and function in the treatments with manure biochar and/or polyethylene microplastic added. Bacterial functions associated with tricarboxylic acid cycle contributed to CO2 emissions. Bacterial functions associated with the nitrogen cycle such as nosZ and AOBamoABC were negatively and positively correlated with N2O emissions, respectively. The interaction between different types of microplastics and soil amendments and the resultant effects on ecosystem function deserve further research.}, }
@article {pmid36242778, year = {2022}, author = {Straight, B and Qiao, X and Ngo, D and Hilton, CE and Olungah, CO and Naugle, A and Lalancette, C and Needham, BL}, title = {Epigenetic mechanisms underlying the association between maternal climate stress and child growth: characterizing severe drought and its impact on a Kenyan community engaging in a climate change-sensitive livelihood.}, journal = {Epigenetics}, volume = {17}, number = {13}, pages = {2421-2433}, pmid = {36242778}, issn = {1559-2308}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Female ; Pregnancy ; *DNA Methylation ; Kenya ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Epigenesis, Genetic ; Obesity ; }, abstract = {Pastoralists in East Africa are among the world's most vulnerable communities to climate change, already living near their upper thermal limits and engaging in a climate-sensitive livelihood in a climate change global hot spot. Pregnant women and children are even more at risk. Here, we report the findings of a study characterizing Samburu pastoralist women's experiences of severe drought and outcomes in their children (N = 213, 1.8-9.6 y). First, we examined potential DNA methylation (DNAm) differences between children exposed to severe drought in utero and same-sex unexposed siblings. Next, we performed a high-dimensional mediation analysis to test whether DNAm mediated associations of exposure to severe drought with body weight and adiposity. DNAm was measured using the Infinium MethylationEPIC BeadChip array. After quality control; batch, chip, and genomic inflation corrections; covariate adjustment; and multiple testing correction, 16 CpG sites were differentially methylated between exposed and unexposed children, predominantly in metabolism and immune function pathways. We found a significant indirect effect of drought exposure on child body weight through cg03771070. Our results are the first to identify biological mediators linking severe drought to child growth in a low-income global hot spot for climate change. A better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the association between drought exposure and child growth is important to increasing climate change resilience by identifying targets for intervention.}, }
@article {pmid36242663, year = {2023}, author = {Huang, KY and Chiu, YH and Chang, TH and Lin, TY}, title = {The influence of climate change on the allocation efficiency of new and tradition energy.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {19958-19979}, pmid = {36242663}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Floods ; Economic Development ; Efficiency ; }, abstract = {The purpose of this paper is to strengthen research concerning the impact of climate change on China's water resources, in order to avoid extreme weather events such as regional rainstorms and floods affecting the stable supply of energy and electricity. The goal is to reorganize energy industry allocation to make China's energy the most efficient, which would thus help achieve sustainable development goals. The biggest contribution and of this paper is not only to enlarge the scale and take into account the sustainable aspects, but also to consider climate change factors that have been ignored in the past as exogenous variables. For the first time, we take stock of the optimal allocation of new and tradition energy sources and carbon dioxide. This study uses the Dynamic ZSG-DDF model with exogenous variables and undesirable outputs to find a way to redistribute carbon dioxide, new energy, and tradition energy from different provinces on the premise of maximizing efficiency, thus achieving the goal of reducing carbon and saving the earth. The research results show that the energy efficiency of tradition energy is higher than that of new energy in various provinces. At the same time, the China government must comprehensively review the quota targets of new energy, tradition energy, and carbon dioxide (CO2) in each province as quickly as possible. Currently, the quotas of various provinces are seriously misplaced, and 26 provinces in total have great room for improvement.}, }
@article {pmid36241905, year = {2022}, author = {Li, K and Pan, J and Xiong, W and Xie, W and Ali, T}, title = {The impact of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming on global maize production and trade.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {17268}, pmid = {36241905}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Climate change is becoming more and more remarkable which has an obvious impact on crop yields all over the world. Future climate scenario data was simulated by 5 climate models recommended by ISI-MIP under 4 RCP scenarios, in which the approximate scenarios with global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C were selected. Applying DSSAT and GTAP models, the per unit yield changes of maize in the world under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C were analyzed and the market prices of maize at national and global levels were simulated. The results showed that, the risk of maize yield reduction under 2.0 °C scenario was much more serious than 1.5 °C scenario; the ratios of yield changes were separately 0.18% and - 10.8% under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The reduction trend of total maize production is obvious in the top five countries and the main producing regions of the world, especially under the 2.0 °C scenario. The market price of maize would increase by around 0.7% and 3.4% under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. With the quickly increasing population in the world, it is urgent for all countries to pay enough attention to the risk of maize yield and take actions of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36241516, year = {2022}, author = {Rodríguez-Navarro, M&#xc1; and Serna Barquero, M and González Pérez, P and Mula Leal, J and Castillo Bustos, JA}, title = {Climate change: implementation of a project to raise awareness of its relationship with health care. "Sustainable morales".}, journal = {Revista espanola de anestesiologia y reanimacion}, volume = {69}, number = {9}, pages = {606-608}, doi = {10.1016/j.redare.2021.09.005}, pmid = {36241516}, issn = {2341-1929}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Morale ; }, }
@article {pmid36237507, year = {2022}, author = {Deng, G and Gao, J and Jiang, H and Li, D and Wang, X and Wen, Y and Sheng, L and He, C}, title = {Response of vegetation variation to climate change and human activities in semi-arid swamps.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {990592}, pmid = {36237507}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Vegetation is a sensitive factor in marsh ecosystems, which can provide nesting sites, foraging areas, and hiding places for waterfowl and can affect their survival environment. The Jilin Momoge National Nature Reserve, which consists of large areas of marshes, is located in the semi-arid region of northeast China and is an important stopover site for the critically endangered species of the Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus). Global climate change, extreme droughts and floods, and large differences in evaporation and precipitation in this region can cause rapid vegetation succession. In recent years, increased grain production and river-lake connectivity projects carried out in this area to increase grain outputs and restore wetlands have caused significant changes in the hydrological and landscape patterns. Therefore, research on the response of variation trends in vegetation patterns to the main driving factors (climate change and human activities) is critical for the conservation of the Siberian Crane. Based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, we obtained and processed the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data of the study area during the peak summer vegetation period for each year from 1984 to 2020, estimated the annual vegetation cover using Maximum value composites (MVC) method and the image dichotomy method, calculated and analyzed the spatial and temporal trends of vegetation cover, explored the response of vegetation cover change in terms of climate change and human activities, and quantified the relative contribution of both. The results revealed that first, from the spatial and temporal changes, the average annual growth rate of regional vegetation was 0.002/a, and 71.14% of the study area was improved. The vegetation cover showed a trend of degradation and then recovery, in which the percentage of high vegetation cover area decreased from 51.22% (1984-2000) to 28.33% (2001-2005), and then recovered to 55.69% (2006-2020). Second, among climate change factors, precipitation was more correlated with the growth of vegetation in the study area than temperature, and the increase in precipitation during the growing season could promote the growth of marsh vegetation in the Momoge Reserve. Third, overall, human activities have contributed to the improvement of vegetation cover in the study area with the implementation of important ecological projects, such as the return of farmland to wetlands, the return of grazing to grass, and the connection of rivers and lakes. Fourth, climate change and human activities jointly drive vegetation change, but the contribution of human activities in both vegetation improvement and degradation areas (85.68% and 78.29%, respectively) is higher than that of climate change (14.32% and 21.71%, respectively), which is the main reason for vegetation improvement or degradation in the study area. The analysis of vegetation pattern change within an intensive time series in semi-arid regions can provide a reference and basis for studying the driving factors in regions with rapid changes in vegetation and hydrological conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36235368, year = {2022}, author = {Avetisyan, A and Aloyan, T and Iskandaryan, A and Harutyunyan, M and Jaakola, L and Melikyan, A}, title = {Distribution of Biodiversity of Wild Beet Species (Genus Beta L.) in Armenia under Ongoing Climate Change Conditions.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {36235368}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {CPEA-LT-2016/10092//Eurasia program, Norwegian Agency for International Cooperation and Quality Enhancement in Higher Education (DIKU)/ ; }, abstract = {The reported annual temperature increase and significant precipitation drop in Armenia impact the country's ecosystems and biodiversity. The present study surveyed the geographical distribution of the local wild beet species under the ongoing climate change conditions. We showed that B. lomatogona, B. corolliflora and B. macrorhiza are sensitive to climate change and were affected to various degrees, depending on their location. The most affected species was B. lomatogona, which is at the verge of extinction. Migration for ca. 90 and 200-300 m up the mountain belt was recorded for B. lomatogona and B. macrorhiza, respectively. B. corolliflora was found at 100-150 m lower altitudes than in the 1980s. A general reduction in the beet's population size in the native habitats was observed, with an increased number of plants within the populations, recorded for B. corolliflora and B. macrorhiza. A new natural hybrid Beta x intermedium Aloyan between B. corolliflora and B. macrorhiza was described and confirmed using chloroplast DNA trnL-trnF intergenic spacer (LF) and partially sequenced alcohol dehydrogenase (adh) of nuclear DNA. An overview of the wild beets reported in Armenia with the taxonomic background, morphological features, and distribution is provided. Conservation measures for preservation of these genetic resources are presented.}, }
@article {pmid36232127, year = {2022}, author = {Leonhardt, M and Granrud, MD and Bonsaksen, T and Lien, L}, title = {Associations between Mental Health, Lifestyle Factors and Worries about Climate Change in Norwegian Adolescents.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {36232127}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Anxiety/epidemiology/psychology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Life Style ; *Mental Health ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a serious global health threat that has an impact on young people's lives and may influence their mental health. Since the global climate strike movement, many adolescents have expressed worries about climate change. Thus, the aim of this study is to examine the prevalence of worries about climate change, and factors associated with worries about climate change, in a representative sample of Norwegian adolescents. Data were retrieved from Ungdata, an annual nationwide online youth survey. Adolescents (n = 128,484) from lower and upper secondary school participated in the study. Data were analysed descriptively and with logistic regression. Most of the adolescents were not worried or a little worried about climate change. Girls, pupils who had at least one parent with higher education and pupils from urban areas were more inclined to worry about the climate. Adolescents who worried about the climate had more symptoms of depression than those who were less worried. While worry about climate change may constitute an additional burden for adolescents experiencing depressive symptoms, such worry can also be seen to reflect climate-friendly values.}, }
@article {pmid36232063, year = {2022}, author = {Marí-Dell'Olmo, M and Oliveras, L and Barón-Miras, LE and Borrell, C and Montalvo, T and Ariza, C and Ventayol, I and Mercuriali, L and Sheehan, M and Gómez-Gutiérrez, A and Villalbí, JR}, title = {Climate Change and Health in Urban Areas with a Mediterranean Climate: A Conceptual Framework with a Social and Climate Justice Approach.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {36232063}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Social Justice ; }, abstract = {The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly evident and highlight the important interdependence between the well-being of people and ecosystems. Although climate change is a global phenomenon, its causes and consequences vary dramatically across territories and population groups. Among settings particularly susceptible to health impacts from climate change are cities with a Mediterranean climate. Here, impacts will put additional pressure on already-stressed ecosystems and vulnerable economies and societies, increasing health inequalities. Therefore, this article presents and discusses a conceptual framework for understanding the complex relationship between climate change and health in the context of cities with Mediterranean climate from a social and climate justice approach. The different elements that integrate the conceptual framework are: (1) the determinants of climate change; (2) its environmental and social consequences; (3) its direct and indirect impacts on health; and (4) the role of mitigation and adaptation policies. The model places special emphasis on the associated social and health inequalities through (1) the recognition of the role of systems of privilege and oppression; (2) the distinction between structural and intermediate determinants of climate change at the root of health inequalities; (3) the role of individual and collective vulnerability in mediating the effects of climate change on health; and (4) the need to act from a climate justice perspective to reverse health inequities.}, }
@article {pmid36231854, year = {2022}, author = {Khan, N and Ma, J and Kassem, HS and Kazim, R and Ray, RL and Ihtisham, M and Zhang, S}, title = {Rural Farmers' Cognition and Climate Change Adaptation Impact on Cash Crop Productivity: Evidence from a Recent Study.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {36231854}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Cognition ; Farmers ; Fertilizers ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Pandemics ; *Pesticides ; }, abstract = {The world faces a once-in-a-century transformation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, adversely affecting farmers' employment, production practices, and livelihood resilience. Meanwhile, climate change (CC) is a crucial issue limiting agricultural production worldwide. Farmers' lives, severely affected by extreme weather conditions, are resulting in the reduced production of major economic crops. The CC has drastically influenced the major agricultural sectors of Pakistan, leading to a significant decline in farmers' living standards and the overall economy. Climate-smart and eco-friendly agricultural practices can mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and ameliorate agricultural productivity under extreme environmental conditions. This paper highlights farmers' autonomous CC adaptation strategies and their influence on cash crop (maize for this study) yield under prevailing circumstances. The current study used a simultaneous equation model to examine the different adaptation impacts on adapters and non-adapters. The survey results of 498 maize farmers in rural Pakistan revealed that growers were aware of the recent CC and had taken adequate adaptive measures to acclimatize to CC. Farmers' arable land area, awareness level, and information accessibility to CC are the most crucial factors that impart a significant role in their adaptation judgments. However, most growers have inadequate adaptation strategies, including improved irrigation and the utilization of extensive fertilizers and pesticides. Using a simultaneous equation model of endogenous switching regression, the study found that farmers not adapted to CC were negatively affecting maize productivity. Therefore, this study suggests that policymakers pay attention to the countermeasures farmers have not taken to mitigate the impact of CC. In addition, policymakers should deliver appropriate adaptation strategies to assist growers in coping with climate-related natural hazards and ensure farmers' livelihood security, rural revitalization, and sustainable agricultural development.}, }
@article {pmid36231739, year = {2022}, author = {Mohtady Ali, H and Ranse, J and Roiko, A and Desha, C}, title = {Healthcare Workers' Resilience Toolkit for Disaster Management and Climate Change Adaptation.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {36231739}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Disasters ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been recognised as a multiplier of risk factors affecting public health. Disruptions caused by natural disasters and other climate-driven impacts are placing increasing demands on healthcare systems. These, in turn, impact the wellness and performance of healthcare workers (HCWs) and hinder the accessibility, functionality and safety of healthcare systems. This study explored factors influencing HCWs' disaster management capabilities with the aim of improving their resilience and adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with thirteen HCWs who dealt with disasters within two hospitals in Queensland, Australia. Analysis of the results identified two significant themes, HCWs' disaster education and HCWs' wellness and needs. The latter comprised five subthemes: HCWs' fear and vulnerability, doubts and uncertainty, competing priorities, resilience and adaptation, and needs assessment. This study developed an 'HCWs Resilience Toolkit', which encourages mindfulness amongst leaders, managers and policymakers about supporting four priority HCWs' needs: 'Wellness', 'Education', 'Resources' and 'Communication'. The authors focused on the 'Education' component to detail recommended training for each of the pre-disaster, mid-disaster and post-disaster phases. The authors conclude the significance of the toolkit, which provides a timely contribution to the healthcare sector amidst ongoing adversity.}, }
@article {pmid36231671, year = {2022}, author = {Zhao, G and Ren, L and Ye, Z}, title = {Vegetation Dynamics in Response to Climate Change and Human Activities in a Typical Alpine Region in the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {36231671}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; European Alpine Region ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Temperature ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Understanding past and future vegetation dynamics is important for assessing the effectiveness of ecological engineering, designing policies for adaptive ecological management, and improving the ecological environment. Here, inter-annual changes in vegetation dynamics during 2000-2020, contributions of climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) to vegetation dynamics, and sustainability of vegetation dynamics in the future were determined in Gannan Prefecture (a typical alpine region in the Tibetan Plateau), China. MODIS-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), air temperature, precipitation, and land cover data were used, and trend analysis, multiple regression residuals analysis, and Hurst exponent analysis were employed. NDVI increased at a rate of 2.4 × 10[-3]∙a[-1] during the growing season, and vegetation improved in most parts of the study area and some sporadically degraded areas also existed. The increasing rate was the highest in the Grain to Green Project (GTGP) areas. The vegetation in the southern and northern regions was mainly affected by CC and HA, respectively, with CC and HA contributions to vegetation change being 52.32% and 47.68%, respectively. The GTGP area (59.89%) was most evidently affected by HA. Moreover, a Hurst exponent analysis indicated that, in the future, the vegetation in Gannan Prefecture would continuously improve. The study can assist in formulating ecological protection and restoration projects and ensuring sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid36231641, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, H and Tang, Y and Chandio, AA and Sargani, GR and Ankrah Twumasi, M}, title = {Measuring the Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production: Evidence from Northern China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {36231641}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {The current study examines the long-run effects of climatic factors on wheat production in China's top three wheat-producing provinces (Hebei, Henan, and Shandong). The data set consists of observations from 1992 to 2020 on which several techniques, namely, fully modified OLS (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), and canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) estimators, and Granger causality, are applied. The results reveal that climatic factors, such as temperature and rainfall, negatively influenced wheat production in Henan Province. This means that Henan Province is more vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, it is observed that climatic conditions (via temperature and rainfall) positively contributed to wheat production in Hebei Province. Moreover, temperature negatively influenced wheat production in Shandong Province, while rainfall contributed positively to wheat production. Further, the results of Granger causality reveal that climatic factors and other determinants significantly influenced wheat production in the selected provinces.}, }
@article {pmid36231386, year = {2022}, author = {Niu, M and Li, G}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change Risks on Residential Consumption in China: Evidence from ARMAX Modeling and Granger Causality Analysis.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {36231386}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Economic Development ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Estimating the impact of climate change risks on residential consumption is one of the important elements of climate risk management, but there is too little research on it. This paper investigates the impact of climate change risks on residential consumption and the heterogeneous effects of different climate risk types in China by an ARMAX model and examines the Granger causality between them. Empirical results based on monthly data from January 2016 to January 2019 suggest a significant positive effect of climate change risks on residential consumption, but with a three-month lag period. If the climate risk index increases by 1 unit, residential consumption will increase by 1.29% after three months. Additionally, the impact of climate change risks on residential consumption in China mainly comes from drought, waterlogging by rain, and high temperature, whereas the impact of typhoons and cryogenic freezing is not significant. Finally, we confirmed the existence of Granger-causality running from climate change risks to residential consumption. Our findings establish the linkage between climate change risks and residential consumption and have some practical implications for the government in tackling climate change risks.}, }
@article {pmid36230428, year = {2022}, author = {Bačėninaitė, D and Džermeikaitė, K and Antanaitis, R}, title = {Global Warming and Dairy Cattle: How to Control and Reduce Methane Emission.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {12}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {36230428}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Agriculture produces greenhouse gases. Methane is a result of manure degradation and microbial fermentation in the rumen. Reduced CH4 emissions will slow climate change and reduce greenhouse gas concentrations. This review compiled studies to evaluate the best ways to decrease methane emissions. Longer rumination times reduce methane emissions and milk methane. Other studies have not found this. Increasing propionate and reducing acetate and butyrate in the rumen can reduce hydrogen equivalents that would otherwise be transferred to methanogenesis. Diet can reduce methane emissions. Grain lowers rumen pH, increases propionate production, and decreases CH4 yield. Methane generation per unit of energy-corrected milk yield reduces with a higher-energy diet. Bioactive bromoform discovered in the red seaweed Asparagopsis taxiformis reduces livestock intestinal methane output by inhibiting its production. Essential oils, tannins, saponins, and flavonoids are anti-methanogenic. While it is true that plant extracts can assist in reducing methane emissions, it is crucial to remember to source and produce plants in a sustainable manner. Minimal lipid supplementation can reduce methane output by 20%, increasing energy density and animal productivity. Selecting low- CH4 cows may lower GHG emissions. These findings can lead to additional research to completely understand the impacts of methanogenesis suppression on rumen fermentation and post-absorptive metabolism, which could improve animal productivity and efficiency.}, }
@article {pmid36230335, year = {2022}, author = {Li, M and Zhou, H and Bai, J and Zhang, T and Liu, Y and Ran, J}, title = {Distribution of Breeding Population and Predicting Future Habitat under Climate Change of Black-Necked Crane (Grus nigricollis Przevalski, 1876) in Shaluli Mountains.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {12}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {36230335}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {Grant No. 2019QZKK0402//Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)/ ; SCZC32130120200018//Sichuan Forestry and Grassland Bureau/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting biodiversity by altering the geographical distribution range of species, and this effect is amplified in climate-sensitive areas. Studying the geographic distribution of flagship species in response to climate change is important for the long-term conservation of species and the maintenance of regional biodiversity. Therefore, we collected field survey records from 2016 to 2020 and conducted field surveys of black-necked cranes in the Shaluli Mountains (SLLMs) in May-June and August-October 2021; 103 breeding records were acquired totally, and the geographical distribution range under the current and four future climate scenarios was modeled with the MaxEnt model to predict the impact of climate change on its distribution and habitat quality. The results showed that 152 black-necked cranes were surveyed in seven counties of SLLMs in total; the estimated number of black-necked cranes in the entire SLLMs was about 200. The currently suitable habitat area is 27,122 km[2], mainly distributed in gentle meadows and wetland habitats along the lake where the Annual Mean Temperature is -1 °C and the Mean Diurnal Range (16 °C) and Precipitation Seasonality (105) are comparatively large. Furthermore, the breeding range would expand to varying degrees under future climate scenarios and showed a migration trend toward the northwest and higher elevation. Besides, as time goes by, the habitat for black-necked cranes in SLLMs would become more homogeneous and more suitable. The conservation effectiveness of the existing reserve network would keep stable with climate change, although there are large conservation gaps between protected areas, and these gaps will gradually expand over time. Overall, this study provides a preliminary understanding of the population and distribution and predicts the future distribution of black-necked cranes in the SLLMs. It also demonstrates the importance of SLLMs for protecting the central population of black-necked cranes and maintaining regional biodiversity. Therefore, we recommend long-term monitoring and conservation of the black-necked crane population and wetland resources in the region.}, }
@article {pmid36230264, year = {2022}, author = {Vasdravanidis, C and Alvanou, MV and Lattos, A and Papadopoulos, DK and Chatzigeorgiou, I and Ravani, M and Liantas, G and Georgoulis, I and Feidantsis, K and Ntinas, GK and Giantsis, IA}, title = {Aquaponics as a Promising Strategy to Mitigate Impacts of Climate Change on Rainbow Trout Culture.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {12}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {36230264}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {T1EDK-00756//European Regional Development Fund of the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation, under the call RESEARCH - CREATE - INNOVATE/ ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems tends to become more progressively pronounced and devastating over the years. The sector of aquaculture is severely affected by natural abiotic factors, on account of climate change, that lead to various undesirable phenomena, including aquatic species mortalities and decreased productivity owing to oxidative and thermal stress of the reared organisms. Novel innovative technologies, such as aquaponics that are based on the co-cultivation of freshwater fish with plants in a sustainable manner under the context of controlled abiotic factors, represent a promising tool for mitigating the effect of climate change on reared fish. The rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) constitutes one of the major freshwater-reared fish species, contributing to the national economies of numerous countries, and more specifically, to regional development, supporting mountainous areas of low productivity. However, it is highly vulnerable to climate change effects, mainly due to the concrete raceways, in which it is reared, that are constructed on the flow-through of rivers and are, therefore, dependent on water's physical properties. The current review study evaluates the suitability, progress, and challenges of developing innovative and sustainable aquaponic systems to rear rainbow trout in combination with the cultivation of plants. Although not commercially developed to a great extent yet, research has shown that the rainbow trout is a valuable experimental model for aquaponics that may be also commercially exploited in the future. In particular, abiotic factors required in rainbow trout farming along, with the high protein proportion required in the ratios due to the strict carnivorous feeding behavior, result in high nitrate production that can be utilized by plants as a source of nitrogen in an aquaponic system. Intensive farming of rainbow trout in aquaponic systems can be controlled using digital monitoring of the system parameters, mitigating the obstacles originating from extreme temperature fluctuations.}, }
@article {pmid36230254, year = {2022}, author = {Bogueva, D and Marinova, D}, title = {Australian Generation Z and the Nexus between Climate Change and Alternative Proteins.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {12}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {36230254}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Scientific evidence shows that current food systems are impacting the planet in ways that are unsustainable and detrimental to human health. Various technological advances have been made in response, one of them being the development of new food products known as novel alternative proteins, including cultured meat, plant-based meat analogues, algae- and insect-based foods. The future of these alternative proteins to a large extent depends on consumer acceptance from young people. This study investigates the attitudes of Australia's adult Generation Z (Gen Z), born between 1995 and 2003, regarding climate change and more sustainable food choices. Gen Z is a diverse, important and trendsetting group known for organising globally on causes related to climate, social justice and health. The study of Australia's Gen Z is based on a 2021 cross-national survey in the main Australian cities. It shows that, although 86% of the participants perceive climate change as anthropogenic, only 38% believe that livestock-based foods are contributing significantly to global warming and environmental deterioration. The paper discusses the implications for Gen Z and novel alternative proteins given that the majority of Australia's young people has low awareness of the environmental impacts of food systems and dietary choices.}, }
@article {pmid36229620, year = {2022}, author = {Chandra, S and Singh, A and Mathew, JR and Singh, CP and Pandya, MR and Bhattacharya, BK and Solanki, H and Nautiyal, MC and Joshi, R}, title = {Phenocam observed flowering anomaly of Rhododendron arboreum Sm. in Himalaya: a climate change impact perspective.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {12}, pages = {877}, pmid = {36229620}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {SHRESTI/02/2019//Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organisation, Ahmedabad/ ; SHRESTI/02/2019//Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organisation, Ahmedabad/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Rhododendron/physiology ; Seasons ; Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Flowering exhibits a significant relationship with environmental stimuli and changes. Effect of photoperiodism and vernalization have been well studied in flowering phenology; however, the effect of soil temperature on flowering is less explored which is one of the major factors of vegetation growth in alpine ecosystem. This study thus focuses on the effects of soil and air temperature on flowering response of Rhododendron arboreum Sm., a Himalayan tree species, which is also an indicator of spring initiation in high altitude regions. To monitor the flowering pattern, we employed automated phenocam, which was set up at 3356 masl in Tungnath (Indian Alpine region of Uttarakhand) for time-lapse photography of timberline ecotone. Soil and air temperature were recorded continuously at the timberline ecotone. Three years (2017 to 2020) of datasets were used for the present study. The phenocam observations displayed an interesting event in the year 2019-2020 with complete absence of flowering in R. arboreum population at Tungnath timberline ecotone. From the soil temperature data, an increase in winter (Dec-Jan, during which floral buds form) soil temperature, by > 1 °C, and no accumulation of freezing degree-days were found for the year 2019-2020. Air temperature however did not display any relationship with the failure of flowering, ruling out aerial chilling or frost injury of floral buds. From the results, a possible relationship between soil temperature and flowering can be suggested pointing towards necessary root apex vernalization stimulus in shallow rooted Rhododendrons. However, the dependency of flowering in Rhododendrons on winter soil temperature further requires continuous monitoring and more observations to make concrete inferences.}, }
@article {pmid36229061, year = {2022}, author = {Hussain, Z and Mahase, E}, title = {COP27: What can we expect from this year's climate change conference?.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o2391}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2391}, pmid = {36229061}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid36229037, year = {2023}, author = {Gibson, D and Riecke, TV and Catlin, DH and Hunt, KL and Weithman, CE and Koons, DN and Karpanty, SM and Fraser, JD}, title = {Climate change and commercial fishing practices codetermine survival of a long-lived seabird.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {324-340}, pmid = {36229037}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Virginia Department of Transportation/ ; //Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Predatory Behavior ; *Charadriiformes ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Understanding the environmental mechanisms that govern population change is a fundamental objective in ecology. Although the determination of how top-down and bottom-up drivers affect demography is important, it is often equally critical to understand the extent to which, environmental conditions that underpin these drivers fluctuate across time. For example, associations between climate and both food availability and predation risk may suggest the presence of trophic interactions that may influence inferences made from patterns in ecological data. Analytical tools have been developed to account for these correlations, while providing opportunities to ask novel questions regarding how populations change across space and time. Here, we combine two modeling disciplines-path analysis and mark-recapture-recovery models-to explore whether shifts in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) influenced top-down (entanglement in fishing equipment) or bottom-up (forage fish production) population constraints over 60 years, and the extent to which these covarying processes shaped the survival of a long-lived seabird, the Royal tern. We found that hemispheric trends in SST were associated with variation in the amount of fish harvested along the Atlantic coast of North America and in the Caribbean, whereas reductions in forage fish production were mostly driven by shifts in the amount of fish harvested by commercial fisheries throughout the North Atlantic the year prior. Although the indirect (i.e., stock depletion) and direct (i.e., entanglement) impacts of commercial fishing on Royal tern mortality has declined over the last 60 years, increased SSTs during this time period has resulted in a comparable increase in mortality risk, which disproportionately impacted the survival of the youngest age-classes of Royal terns. Given climate projections for the North Atlantic, our results indicate that threats to Royal tern population persistence in the Mid-Atlantic will most likely be driven by failures to recruit juveniles into the breeding population.}, }
@article {pmid36228797, year = {2023}, author = {Qiu, L and He, L and Lu, H and Liang, D}, title = {Spatial-temporal evolution of pumped hydro energy storage potential on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its future trend under global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {857}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {159332}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159332}, pmid = {36228797}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Humans ; *Global Warming ; Tibet ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Global warming has brought extensive and far-reaching impacts on human life and production. A pumped hydro energy storage contributes to the large-scale development of renewable energy and serves as an important measure to mitigate climate change. Despite considerable efforts in estimating the potential of the pumped hydro energy storage, research gaps in response to global warming remain. In this regard, this study conducts a novel assessment of the pumped hydro energy storage's potential from a dynamic perspective, taking the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the study area. The spatiotemporal evolution of the pumped hydro energy storage's potential over the past few decades (the 1970s-2017) is analyzed, and its response to precipitation is identified innovatively. On this basis, the trend in the future period is further predicted for the first time, which is divided into near, short, medium, and long terms. Results show that the pumped hydro energy storage potential has a generally upward but not monotonic trend, decreasing from the 1970s to 1995 and then rising more dramatically, with slopes of 5548.5 ± 69.2 GWhyr[-1] and -238.1 ± 90.4 GWhyr[-1]. In the majority (68.6 %) of lake basins (68.6 %), changes in precipitation positively contribute to the pumped hydro energy storage potential, resulting in a noticeable growth in the future. Under the representative concentration pathway of 8.5, the mean potential density is projected to rise by 23.4 %, 25.2 %, 28.3 %, and 30.6 % in the near, short, medium, and long terms, respectively. This result indicates that high-intensity greenhouse gas emissions under this scenario will lead to a greater potential for the pumped hydro energy storage in the future.}, }
@article {pmid36228124, year = {2023}, author = {Tong, S and Beggs, PJ and Davies, JM and Jiang, F and Kinney, PL and Liu, S and Yin, Y and Ebi, KL}, title = {Compound impacts of climate change, urbanization and biodiversity loss on allergic disease.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {655-663}, doi = {10.1093/ije/dyac197}, pmid = {36228124}, issn = {1464-3685}, mesh = {Humans ; *Urbanization ; Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; Ecosystem ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36227967, year = {2022}, author = {Kwan, J}, title = {Climate change threatens supercomputers.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {378}, number = {6616}, pages = {124}, doi = {10.1126/science.adf2882}, pmid = {36227967}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Weather ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Costly adaptations help stave off effects of wildfires, storms, and hot weather.}, }
@article {pmid36226938, year = {2022}, author = {Ray, S and Goronga, T and Chigiya, PT and Madzimbamuto, FD}, title = {Climate change, disaster management and primary health care in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {African journal of primary health care &amp; family medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-e3}, pmid = {36226938}, issn = {2071-2936}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Primary Health Care ; Zimbabwe ; }, abstract = {The health crises related to climate change in African countries are predicted to get worse and more prevalent. The response to catastrophic events such as cyclones, flooding and landslides must be rapid and well-coordinated. Slower adverse events such as droughts, heat stress and food insecurity must similarly be anticipated, planned for and resourced. There are lessons to be learnt by the health system following the crisis created by Cyclone Idai in Zimbabwe during March 2019, which required a massive humanitarian response to mitigate the impact of torrential rainfall on lives and livelihoods. Several researchers and organisations documented the emergency response in detail. They reported that the government response was hampered by a lack of preparedness, poor planning, inadequate resource mobilisation and weak coordination. Rural communities did not access the early warning cyclone alerts disseminated through television, print and social media, nor did they appreciate the seriousness of events until it was too late. Primary health care (PHC) teams are familiar and trusted by the communities they serve and have a critical role in raising public awareness and in documenting the evolving impact of climate change, using established health indicators and local narratives. PHC leaders and providers have the knowledge and skills to mediate between government bodies, international agencies, other stakeholders and communities on the predicted impact of climate change on health outcomes, highlighting the vulnerability of disadvantaged and impoverished groups. They are also able to work with community leaders, using indigenous knowledge on weather patterns, to build local engagement in protection plans.Contribution: This article describes the role health professionals and civil society can play in educating the public on the dangers faced in the near future as a result of climate change and actions that can be taken to become more resilient and to mitigate this impact.}, }
@article {pmid36226937, year = {2022}, author = {Sheriff, M and Mash, R}, title = {Climate change and primary health care in Chakama, Kilifi County, Kenya.}, journal = {African journal of primary health care &amp; family medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-e3}, pmid = {36226937}, issn = {2071-2936}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Humans ; Kenya ; *Livestock ; Primary Health Care ; }, abstract = {Chakama is an area of 46 small villages in Kilifi County, Kenya. Climate change has led to more frequent and longer periods of drought in this semi-arid region as well as locust invasions. This has led to a lack of water, with many rivers drying up and poor water quality as a result of pollution of the remaining river water. The lack of water and locust invasion have led to a failure of the crops and loss of livestock. Many pastoralists and farmers have lost their livelihood. Wild animals from local nature reserves have also come into conflict with the community over water scarcity. Many families have migrated in search of water and income. The health effects are seen in the rising number of people suffering from malnutrition and gastroenteritis as well as in terms of mental health problems. Primary health care services are not always available, and the quality of such services is poor. Facilities and healthcare workers also struggle to be resilient in the face of the same environmental challenges. Local nongovernment organisations are attempting to assist through health and social services, community engagement and multisectoral action.}, }
@article {pmid36226910, year = {2022}, author = {Tangcharoensathien, V and Yamamoto, N and Suphanchaimat, R and Sukbut, H and Chotchoungchatchai, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on biodiversity, agriculture and health: a call for papers.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {100}, number = {4}, pages = {238}, pmid = {36226910}, issn = {1564-0604}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid36225831, year = {2022}, author = {Ding, C and Brouard, JS}, title = {Assisted migration is plausible for a boreal tree species under climate change: A quantitative and population genetics study of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in western Canada.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {e9384}, pmid = {36225831}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {A novel method was tested for improving tree breeding strategies that integrate quantitative and population genetics based on range-wide reciprocal transplant experiments. Five reciprocal common garden tests of Populus tremuloides were investigated including 6450 trees across western Canada focusing on adaptation traits and growth. Both genetic parameters and home-site transplant models were evaluated. We found a genetic trade-off between growth and early spring leaf flush and late fall senescence. Coefficients of phenotypic variation (CVp) of cell lysis (CL), a measure of freezing injury, shrank from 0.28 to 0.10 during acclimation in the fall, and the CVp slope versus the freezing temperature was significantly different from zero (R [2] = 0.33, p = .02). There was more between-population genetic variation in fall phenology than in spring leaf phenology. We suggest that P. tremuloides demonstrated a discrepancy between the ecological optimum and the physiological optimum minimum winter temperature. The sub-optimal growing condition of P. tremuloides is potentially caused by the warmer ecological optimum than the physiological optimum. Assisted migration and breeding of fast growers to reforest cooler plantation sites can improve productivity. Transferring the study populations to less than 4°C of extreme minimum temperature appears safe for reforestation aligning with the historical recolonization direction of the species. This is equivalent to a 5-10° latitudinal northward movement. Fall frost hardiness is an effective criterion for family selection in the range tested in this study.}, }
@article {pmid36225826, year = {2022}, author = {Deng, X and Xu, D and Liao, W and Wang, R and Zhuo, Z}, title = {Predicting the distributions of Scleroderma guani (Hymenoptera: Bethylidae) under climate change in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {e9410}, pmid = {36225826}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The wasp Scleroderma guani is an important parasitic natural enemy of a variety of stem borers such as longicorn beetles. Studying and clarifying the suitable area of this wasp plays an important role in controlling stem borers. Based on information about the actual distribution of S. guani and on a set of environmental variables, MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS were exploited to predict the potential distribution of this insect in China. This work simulated the geographical distribution of potential climatic suitability of S. guani in China at present and in different periods in the future. Combining the relative percent contribution score of environmental factors and the Jackknife test, the dominant environmental variables and their appropriate values restricting the potential geographical distribution of S. guani were screened. The results showed that the prediction of the MaxEnt model was highly in line with the actual distribution under current climate conditions, and the simulation accuracy was very high. The distribution of S. guani is mainly affected by bio18 (Precipitation of Warmest Quarter), bio11 (Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter), bio13 (Precipitation of Wettest Month), and bio3 (Isothermality). The suitable habitat of S. guani in China is mainly distributed in the Northeast China Plain, North China Plain, middle-lower Yangtze Plain, and Sichuan Basin, with total suitable area of 547.05 × 10[4] km[2], accounting for 56.85% of China's territory. Furthermore, under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios in the 2050s and 2090s, the areas of high, medium, and low suitability showed different degrees of change compared to nowadays, exhibiting expansion trend in the future. This work provides theoretical support for related research on pest control and ecological protection.}, }
@article {pmid36223896, year = {2022}, author = {Edmondson, D and Pearson, AR and Salas, RN}, title = {False climate change narratives undermine health sector engagement.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o2376}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2376}, pmid = {36223896}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Narration ; }, }
@article {pmid36223023, year = {2023}, author = {Satti, Z and Naveed, M and Shafeeque, M and Ali, S and Abdullaev, F and Ashraf, TM and Irshad, M and Li, L}, title = {Effects of climate change on vegetation and snow cover area in Gilgit Baltistan using MODIS data.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {19149-19166}, pmid = {36223023}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {E151030101//State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology/ ; }, mesh = {*Satellite Imagery ; *Snow ; Climate Change ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) mountain ranges are the sources of Asia's most important river systems, which provide fresh water to 1.4 billion inhabitants in the region. Environmental and socioeconomic conditions are affected in many ways by climate change. Globally, climate change has received widespread attention, especially regarding seasonal and annual temperatures. Snow cover is vulnerable to climate warming, particularly temperature variations. By employing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets and observed data, this study investigated the seasonal and interannual variability using snow cover, vegetation and land surface temperature (LST), and their spatial and temporal trend on different elevations from 2001 to 2020 in these variables in Gilgit Baltistan (GB), northern Pakistan. The study region was categorized into five elevation zones extending from < 2000 to > 7000 masl. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend tests and Sen's slope estimates indicate snow cover increases throughout the winter, but decreases significantly between June and July. In contrast, GB has an overall increasing annual LST trend. Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) reveals a significant positive relationship between vegetation and LST (PCC = 0.73) and a significant negative relationship between LST and snow cover (PCC = - 0.74), and vegetation and snow cover (PCC = - 0.78). Observed temperature data and MODIS LST have a coefficient of determination greater than 0.59. Snow cover decreases at 3000-2000 masl elevations while increases at higher 5000 masl elevations.The vegetation in low and mid-elevation < 4000 masl zones decreases significantly annually. The temperature shows a sharply increasing trend at lower 2000-3000 masl elevations in the autumn, indicating the shifting of the winter seasons at this elevation zone. These findings better explain the spatiotemporal variations in snow cover, vegetation, and LST at various elevation zones and the interactions between these parameters at various elevations across the HKH region.}, }
@article {pmid36223013, year = {2023}, author = {Ding, J and Wang, Y and Wang, S and Mohsin, M}, title = {Role of climate fund raising under fiscal balance on climate change mitigation: an analysis from Pareto optimality.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {19047-19060}, pmid = {36223013}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Fund Raising ; Climate Change ; *Financial Management ; Organizations ; }, abstract = {Since there is little progress being made in multinational climate discussions, climate finance is at a crossroads as lenders must come up with new plans for the "Future of Environment Funds." The mission of effectively and efficiently distributing money to support the shift to low-carbon, climate-resilient economies has been given to climate finance organizations. Due to its purpose to contribute to a paradigm shift, the Green Climate Fund (GCF) is anticipated to help the most vulnerable populations adapt to and mitigate climate change. This research alters the premise of the Baumol and Oates public externality model to make it more appropriate for global climate governance analysis. This research then deduces the special pricing conditions to persuade the market to comply with Pareto optimality criteria by contrasting the Pareto optimality model of global climate governance and the market equilibrium model. The rules and potential approaches that must be followed for raising capital and allocating GCFs are then determined by taking into account global Pareto optimality and fiscal balance. The study finds that when each country assumes that the GCF aims to achieve Pareto optimality in climate governance globally and its own fiscal balance, the equilibrium results of the international climate game will not achieve both the financial balance of the GCF and global Pareto optimality simultaneously. The GCF may successfully finance non-bankable components of bigger "almost bankable projects," according to our empirical analysis of the GCF portfolio structure and strategy in this research. This lends credence to an alternative interpretation of the GCF.}, }
@article {pmid36222573, year = {2023}, author = {Eckardt, NA and Ainsworth, EA and Bahuguna, RN and Broadley, MR and Busch, W and Carpita, NC and Castrillo, G and Chory, J and DeHaan, LR and Duarte, CM and Henry, A and Jagadish, SVK and Langdale, JA and Leakey, ADB and Liao, JC and Lu, KJ and McCann, MC and McKay, JK and Odeny, DA and Jorge de Oliveira, E and Platten, JD and Rabbi, I and Rim, EY and Ronald, PC and Salt, DE and Shigenaga, AM and Wang, E and Wolfe, M and Zhang, X}, title = {Climate change challenges, plant science solutions.}, journal = {The Plant cell}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {24-66}, pmid = {36222573}, issn = {1532-298X}, support = {INV-007637/GATES/Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation/United States ; INV-002970/GATES/Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation/United States ; GM122968/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Carbon ; Droughts ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a defining challenge of the 21st century, and this decade is a critical time for action to mitigate the worst effects on human populations and ecosystems. Plant science can play an important role in developing crops with enhanced resilience to harsh conditions (e.g. heat, drought, salt stress, flooding, disease outbreaks) and engineering efficient carbon-capturing and carbon-sequestering plants. Here, we present examples of research being conducted in these areas and discuss challenges and open questions as a call to action for the plant science community.}, }
@article {pmid36220464, year = {2023}, author = {San-Emeterio, LM and Jiménez-Morillo, NT and Pérez-Ramos, IM and Domínguez, MT and González-Pérez, JA}, title = {Changes in soil organic matter molecular structure after five-years mimicking climate change scenarios in a Mediterranean savannah.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {857}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {159288}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159288}, pmid = {36220464}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Soil/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Molecular Structure ; Ecosystem ; Organic Chemicals ; }, abstract = {Mediterranean savannahs (dehesas) are agro-sylvo-pastoral systems with a marked seasonality, with severe summer drought and favourable rainy spring and autumn. These conditions are forecasted to become more extreme due to the ongoing global climate change. Under such conditions, it is key to understand soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics at a molecular level. Here, analytical pyrolysis (Py-GC/MS) combined with chemometric statistical approaches was used for the molecular characterization of SOM in a five-years field manipulative experiment of single and combined rainfall exclusion (drought) and increased temperature (warming). The results indicate that SOM molecular composition in dehesas is mainly determined by the effect of the tree canopy. After only five years of the climatic experiment, the differences caused by the warming, drought and the combination of warming+drought forced climate scenarios became statistically significant with respect to the untreated controls, notably in the open pasture habitat. The climatic treatments mimicking foreseen climate changes affected mainly the lignocellulose dynamics, but also other SOM compounds (alkanes, fatty acids, isoprenoids and nitrogen compounds) pointing to accelerated humification processes and SOM degradation when soils are under warmer and dryer conditions. Therefore, it is expected that, in the short term, the foreseen climate change scenarios will exert changes in the Mediterranean savannah SOM molecular structure and in its dynamic.}, }
@article {pmid36220160, year = {2022}, author = {Gasparri, G and Imbago-Jácome, D and Lakhani, H and Yeung, W and El Omrani, O}, title = {Adolescents and youth are prioritising human rights in the climate change agenda.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o2401}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2401}, pmid = {36220160}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; Global Health ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid36219871, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, J and Richards, ZT and Adam, AAS and Chan, CX and Shinzato, C and Gilmour, J and Thomas, L and Strugnell, JM and Miller, DJ and Cooke, I}, title = {Evolutionary responses of a reef-building coral to climate change at the end of the last glacial maximum.}, journal = {Molecular biology and evolution}, volume = {39}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {36219871}, issn = {1537-1719}, abstract = {Climate change threatens the survival of coral reefs on a global scale, primarily through mass bleaching and mortality as a result of marine heatwaves. While these short-term effects are clear, predicting the fate of coral reefs over the coming century is a major challenge. One way to understand the longer-term effects of rapid climate change is to examine the response of coral populations to past climate shifts. Coastal and shallow-water marine ecosystems such as coral reefs have been reshaped many times by sea-level changes during the Pleistocene, yet, few studies have directly linked this with its consequences on population demographics, dispersal, and adaptation. Here we use powerful analytical techniques, afforded by haplotype phased whole-genomes, to establish such links for the reef-building coral, Acropora digitifera. We show that three genetically distinct populations are present in northwestern Australia, and that their rapid divergence since the last glacial maximum (LGM) can be explained by a combination of founder-effects and restricted gene flow. Signatures of selective sweeps, too strong to be explained by demographic history, are present in all three populations and overlap with genes that show different patterns of functional enrichment between inshore and offshore habitats. In contrast to rapid divergence in the host, we find that photosymbiont communities are largely undifferentiated between corals from all three locations, spanning almost 1000 km, indicating that selection on host genes and not acquisition of novel symbionts, has been the primary driver of adaptation for this species in northwestern Australia.}, }
@article {pmid36219786, year = {2022}, author = {Sijm-Eeken, ME and Arkenaar, W and Jaspers, MW and Peute, LW}, title = {Medical informatics and climate change: a framework for modeling green healthcare solutions.}, journal = {Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {2083-2088}, pmid = {36219786}, issn = {1527-974X}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Medical Informatics ; Delivery of Health Care ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a theory-based framework to enhance and accelerate development, selection, and implementation of solutions mitigating the climate impact of healthcare organizations.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: Existing frameworks were combined to develop the Green-MIssion (Medical Informatics Solutions) framework. It was further developed and refined by mapping solutions from project plans and reviewing it with an expert panel.<br><br>RESULTS: The framework classifies solutions into three categories: (1) monitor and measure environmental impact of a healthcare setting; (2) help create and increase awareness among employees and patients; and (3) interventions to reduce environmental impacts.<br><br>DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The framework combines concepts from healthcare information technology and environmental sciences and can be used to structure green medical informatics solutions for different healthcare settings. Furthermore, research should evaluate its application for measuring and assessing the impact of green medical informatics solutions on environmental sustainability and climate resilience.}, }
@article {pmid36219644, year = {2022}, author = {Sharma, D and Murase, LC and Murase, JE and Rosenbach, M}, title = {Combatting Climate Change: 10 Interventions for Dermatologists to Consider for Sustainability.}, journal = {Cutis}, volume = {110}, number = {2}, pages = {59-62}, doi = {10.12788/cutis.0577}, pmid = {36219644}, issn = {2326-6929}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Dermatologists ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid36219423, year = {2022}, author = {DeMasi, M and Chekuri, B and Paladine, HL and Kenyon, T}, title = {Climate Change: A Crisis for Family Medicine Educators.}, journal = {Family medicine}, volume = {54}, number = {9}, pages = {683-687}, doi = {10.22454/FamMed.2022.827476}, pmid = {36219423}, issn = {1938-3800}, mesh = {Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; *Family Practice ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid36218654, year = {2021}, author = {Stephenson, J}, title = {New Federal Office Will Tackle Climate Change as Health Threat Borne Unequally by Vulnerable Groups.}, journal = {JAMA health forum}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {e213351}, doi = {10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.3351}, pmid = {36218654}, issn = {2689-0186}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Vectors ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid36217494, year = {2022}, author = {Elander, I and Granberg, M and Montin, S}, title = {Governance and planning in a 'perfect storm': Securitising climate change, migration and Covid-19 in Sweden.}, journal = {Progress in planning}, volume = {164}, number = {}, pages = {100634}, pmid = {36217494}, issn = {0305-9006}, abstract = {The article describes and reflects upon how multi-level governance and planning in Sweden have been affected by and reacted upon three pending major challenges confronting humanity, namely climate change, migration and the Covid-19 pandemic. These 'crises' are broadly considered 'existential threats' in need of 'securitisation'. Causes and adequate reactions are contested, and there are no given solutions how to securitise the perceived threats, neither one by one, no less together. Government securitisation strategies are challenged by counter-securitisation demands, and plaguing vulnerable groups in society by in-securitising predicaments. Taking Sweden as an example the article applies an analytical approach drawing upon strands of securitisation, governance and planning theory. Targeting policy responses to the three perceived crises the intricate relations between government levels, responsibilities, capacities, and actions are scrutinized, including a focus upon the role of planning. Overriding research questions are: How has the governance and planning system - central, regional and local governments - in Sweden responded to the challenges of climate change, migration and Covid-19? What threats were identified? What solutions were proposed? What consequences could be traced? What prospects wait around the corner? Comparing crucial aspects of the crises' anatomies the article adds to the understanding of the way multilevel, cross-sectional, hybrid governance and planning respond to concurrent crises, thereby also offering clues for action in other geopolitical contexts. The article mainly draws upon recent and ongoing research on manifestations of three cases in the Swedish context. Applying a pragmatic, methodological approach combining elements of securitisation, governance and planning theories with Carol Lee Bacchi's 'What is the problem represented to be' and a touch of interpretive/narrative theory, the study reveals distinct differences between the anatomies of the three crises and their handling. Urgency, extension, state of knowledge/epistemology, governance and planning make different imprints on crises management. Sweden's long-term climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies imply slow, micro-steps forward based on a combination of social-liberal, 'circular' and a touch of 'green growth' economies. Migration policy displays a Janus face, on the one hand largely respecting the UN refugee quota system on the other hand applying a detailed regulatory framework causing severe insecurity especially for minor refugees wanting to stay and make their living in Sweden. The Covid-19 outbreak revealed a lack of foresight and eroded/fragmented responsibility causing huge stress upon personnel in elderly and health care and appalling death rates among elderly patients, although governance and planning slowly adapted through securitising policies, leading to potential de-securitisation of the issue. The three crises have caused a security wake-up among governments at all levels and the public in general, and the article concludes by discussing whether this 'perfect storm' of crises will result in a farewell to neoliberalism - towards a neo-regulatory state facing further challenges and crises for governance, planning and the role of planners. The tentative prospect rather indicates a mixture of context-dependent 'hybrid governance', thus also underlining the crucial role of planners' role as 'chameleons' in complicated governance processes of politics, policy and planning.}, }
@article {pmid36216906, year = {2022}, author = {Strack, T and Jonkers, L and C Rillo, M and Hillebrand, H and Kucera, M}, title = {Plankton response to global warming is characterized by non-uniform shifts in assemblage composition since the last ice age.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {1871-1880}, pmid = {36216906}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {*Plankton ; Biodiversity ; Global Warming ; Temperature ; *Foraminifera/physiology ; }, abstract = {Biodiversity is expected to change in response to future global warming. However, it is difficult to predict how species will track the ongoing climate change. Here we use the fossil record of planktonic foraminifera to assess how biodiversity responded to climate change with a magnitude comparable to future anthropogenic warming. We compiled time series of planktonic foraminifera assemblages, covering the time from the last ice age across the deglaciation to the current warm period. Planktonic foraminifera assemblages shifted immediately when temperature began to rise at the end of the last ice age and continued to change until approximately 5,000 years ago, even though global temperature remained relatively stable during the last 11,000 years. The biotic response was largest in the mid latitudes and dominated by range expansion, which resulted in the emergence of new assemblages without analogues in the glacial ocean. Our results indicate that the plankton response to global warming was spatially heterogeneous and did not track temperature change uniformly over the past 24,000 years. Climate change led to the establishment of new assemblages and possibly new ecological interactions, which suggests that current anthropogenic warming may lead to new, different plankton community composition.}, }
@article {pmid36216383, year = {2022}, author = {Mahase, E}, title = {Hopeful not helpless: How doctors are combating climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o2429}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2429}, pmid = {36216383}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Depression ; *Emotions ; Hope ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid36216047, year = {2023}, author = {Zhong, L and Wu, T and Ding, J and Xu, W and Yuan, F and Liu, BF and Zhao, L and Li, Y and Ren, NQ and Yang, SS}, title = {Co-composting of faecal sludge and carbon-rich wastes in the earthworm's synergistic cooperation system: Performance, global warming potential and key microbiome.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {857}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {159311}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159311}, pmid = {36216047}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Composting ; Sewage/chemistry ; Carbon/analysis ; Global Warming ; Soil/chemistry ; *Oligochaeta ; *Oryza ; *Microbiota ; }, abstract = {Composting is an effective alternative for recycling faecal sludge into organic fertilisers. A microflora-earthworm (Eisenia fetida) synergistic cooperation system was constructed to enhance the composting efficiency of faecal sludge. The impact of earthworms and carbon-rich wastes (rice straw (RS) and sawdust (S)) on compost properties, greenhouse gas emissions, and key microbial species of composting were evaluated. The addition of RS or S promoted earthworm growth and reproduction. The earthworm-based system reduced the volatile solid of the final substrate by 13.19-16.24 % and faecal Escherichia coli concentrations by 1.89-3.66 log10 cfu/g dry mass compared with the earthworm-free system. The earthworm-based system increased electrical conductivity by 0.322-1.402 mS/cm and reduced C/N by 56.16-64.73 %. The NH4[+]:NO3[-] ratio of the final faecal sludge and carbon-rich waste was <0.16. The seed germination index was higher than 80 %. These results indicate that earthworms contribute to faecal sludge maturation. Earthworm addition reduced CO2 production. The simultaneous addition of earthworms and RS system (FRS2) resulted in the lowest global warming potential (GWP). The microbial diversity increased significantly over time in the RS-only system, whereas it initially increased and later decreased in the FRS2 system. Cluster analysis revealed that earthworms had a more significant impact on the microbial community than the addition of carbon-rich waste. Co-occurrence networks for earthworm-based systems were simple than those for earthworm-free systems, but the major bacterial genera were more complicated. Highly abundant key species (norank_f_Chitinophagaceae and norank_f_Gemmatimonadaceae) are closely related. Microbes may be more cooperative than competitive, facilitating the conversion of carbon and nitrogen in earthworm-based systems. This work has demonstrated that using earthworms is an effective approach for promoting the efficiency of faecal sludge composting and reducing GWP.}, }
@article {pmid36215472, year = {2022}, author = {Tierney, JE and Zhu, J and Li, M and Ridgwell, A and Hakim, GJ and Poulsen, CJ and Whiteford, RDM and Rae, JWB and Kump, LR}, title = {Spatial patterns of climate change across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {42}, pages = {e2205326119}, pmid = {36215472}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma) is one of our best geological analogs for understanding climate dynamics in a "greenhouse" world. However, proxy data representing the event are only available from select marine and terrestrial sedimentary sequences that are unevenly distributed across Earth's surface, limiting our view of the spatial patterns of climate change. Here, we use paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) to combine climate model and proxy information and create a spatially complete reconstruction of the PETM and the climate state that precedes it ("PETM-DA"). Our data-constrained results support strong polar amplification, which in the absence of an extensive cryosphere, is related to temperature feedbacks and loss of seasonal snow on land. The response of the hydrological cycle to PETM warming consists of a narrowing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, off-equatorial drying, and an intensification of seasonal monsoons and winter storm tracks. Many of these features are also seen in simulations of future climate change under increasing anthropogenic emissions. Since the PETM-DA yields a spatially complete estimate of surface air temperature, it yields a rigorous estimate of global mean temperature change (5.6 [∘]C; 5.4 [∘]C to 5.9 [∘]C, 95% CI) that can be used to calculate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). We find that PETM ECS was 6.5 [∘]C (5.7 [∘]C to 7.4 [∘]C, 95% CI), which is much higher than the present-day range. This supports the view that climate sensitivity increases substantially when greenhouse gas concentrations are high.}, }
@article {pmid36215184, year = {2022}, author = {Ferguson Bryan, A and Yates, E and Tummala, N}, title = {How Should We Respond to Health Sector Emissions That Exacerbate Climate Change and Inequity?.}, journal = {AMA journal of ethics}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {E927-933}, doi = {10.1001/amajethics.2022.927}, pmid = {36215184}, issn = {2376-6980}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases/adverse effects ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {A warming climate poses substantial risk to public health and worsens existing health inequity. As a contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, the health sector has obligations and ample opportunities to protect health by decreasing waste and motivating more system-wide sustainable clinical practices. Such efforts will have important ethical implications for health equity.}, }
@article {pmid36215005, year = {2023}, author = {Zhao, K and Li, X and Yang, J and Huang, Z and Li, C and Yao, L and Tan, Z and Wu, X and Huang, S and Yuan, Y and Hong, Z and Cai, Q and Chen, Z and Zhang, L}, title = {Effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and potential distribution areas of 35 Millettia Species in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {18535-18545}, pmid = {36215005}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2020A1515110715//Guangdong Basic and Applied Basie Research Foundation/ ; 2021GDKLPRB02//Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant Resources Biorefinery/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Millettia ; China ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Climate change has an extremely important impact on the geographic distribution of plants. The genus Millettia is an important plant resource in China and is widely used in medicine and ornamental industries. Due to the continuous changes of climate and the development and utilization of plant resources of the genus Millettia, it is of great significance to systematically investigate the geographic distribution of plants of the Millettia and their potential distribution under climate change. DIVA-GIS software was used to analyze 3492 plant specimens of 35 species of genus Millettia in the herbarium, and the ecological geographic distribution and richness of Millettia were analyzed, and the MaxEnt model was used to analyze the current and potential distribution in the future. The results show that the genus Millettia is distributed in 30 provinces in China, among which Yunnan and Guangdong provinces are the most distributed. Our model determines that precipitation in the driest month and annual temperature range are the most important bioclimatic variables. Future climate changes will increase the suitable habitat area of M. congestiflora by 16.75%, but other cliff beans Suitable habitats for vines will decrease significantly: M. cinereal by 47.66%, M. oosperma by 39.16%, M. pulchra by 36.04%, M. oraria by - 29.32%, M. nitida by 22.88%, M. dielsiana by 22.72%, M. sericosema by 19.53%, M. championii by 7.77%, M. pachycarpa by 7.72%, M. speciose by 2.05%, M. reticulata by 1.32%. Therefore, targeted measures should be taken to protect and develop these precious plant resources.}, }
@article {pmid36214930, year = {2022}, author = {Yellowlees, P}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Mental Health Will Lead to Increased Digitization of Mental Health Care.}, journal = {Current psychiatry reports}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {723-730}, pmid = {36214930}, issn = {1535-1645}, mesh = {Humans ; Mental Health ; Climate Change ; Pandemics/prevention &amp; control ; *Psychiatry ; *COVID-19 ; *Telemedicine ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The evidence for the impact of climate change on the mental health of individuals and communities is reviewed, and the literature on the importance of digital systems in reducing carbon emissions is addressed.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Most of the climate change impacts on mental health are disaster related, although recent literature on "eco-anxiety," often described as anxiety about the long-term effects of climate change, is emerging. There is strong evidence that the use of telepsychiatry and digital approaches to mental health care can reduce carbon emissions by reducing travel for patients and providers as well as provide effective distance care in disasters. Hybrid care, asynchronous consultations, and care at home are all innovations that will further reduce carbon emissions. The COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly accelerated the digitization of psychiatry, and climate change will continue to drive these changes in the future. Much more research on these overlapping issues is required.}, }
@article {pmid36214192, year = {2022}, author = {Astone, R and Vaalavuo, M}, title = {Climate Change and Health: Consequences of High Temperatures among Vulnerable Groups in Finland.}, journal = {International journal of health services : planning, administration, evaluation}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {207314221131208}, doi = {10.1177/00207314221131208}, pmid = {36214192}, issn = {1541-4469}, abstract = {In this article, we examine the effects of high temperatures on hospital visits and mortality in Finland. This provides new information of the topic in a context of predominantly cool temperatures. Unique, individual-level data are used to examine the relationship at the municipality-month level over a span of 20 years. Linear regression methods alongside high-dimensional fixed effects are used to minimize confounding variation. Analysis is conducted with special emphasis on the elderly population, as well as on specific elderly risk groups identified in previous literature. We show that for an additional day per month above 25°C, monthly all-cause mortality increases by 1.5 percent (95% CI: 0.4%-2.6%) and acute hospital visits increase by 1.1 percent (95% CI: 0.7%-1.6%). We also find some evidence that these effects are elevated in selected population subgroups, the low-income elderly, and people with dementia. Hospital visits also increase among younger age groups, illustrating the importance of using multiple health indicators. Such detailed evidence is important for identifying vulnerable groups as extreme heat waves are expected to become more frequent and intense in northern countries.}, }
@article {pmid36212308, year = {2022}, author = {Adil, M and Yao, Z and Zhang, C and Lu, S and Fu, S and Mosa, WFA and Hasan, ME and Lu, H}, title = {Climate change stress alleviation through nature based solutions: A global perspective.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {1007222}, pmid = {36212308}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Global climate change stress has greatly influenced agricultural crop production which leads to the global problems such as food security. To cope with global climate change, nature based solutions (NBS) are desirable because these lead to improve our environment. Environmental stresses such as drought and salinity are big soil problems and can be eradicated by increasing soil organic matter which is directly related to soil organic carbon (SOC). SOC is one of the key components of the worldwide carbon (C) cycle. Different types of land use patterns have shown significant impacts on SOC stocks. However, their effects on the various SOC fractions are not well-understood at the global level which make it difficult to predict how SOC changes over time. We aim to investigate changes in various SOC fractions, including mineral associated organic carbon (MAOC), mineral associated organic matter (MAOM), soil organic carbon (SOC), easily oxidized organic carbon (EOC), microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) under various types of land use patterns (NBS), including cropping pattern, residue management, conservation tillages such as no tillage (NT) and reduced tillage (RT) using data from 97 studies on a global scale. The results showed that NT overall increased MAOC, MAOM, SOC, MBC, EOC and POC by 16.2%, 26.8%, 24.1%, 16.2%, 27.9% and 33.2% (P < 0.05) compared to CT. No tillage with residue retention (NTR) increased MAOC, MAOM, SOC, MBC, EOC and POC by 38.0%, 29.9%, 47.5%, 33.1%, 35.7% and 49.0%, respectively, compared to CT (P < 0.05). RT overall increased MAOC, MAOM, SOC, MBC, EOC and POC by 36.8%, 14.1%, 25.8%, 25.9, 18.7% and 16.6% (P < 0.05) compared to CT. Reduced tillage with residue retention (RTR) increased MAOM, SOC and POC by 14.2%, 36.2% and 30.7%, respectively, compared to CT (P < 0.05). Multiple cropping increased MAOC, MBC and EOC by 14.1%, 39.8% and 21.5%, respectively, compared to mono cropping (P < 0.05). The response ratios of SOC fractions (MAOC, MAOM, SOC, MBC, EOC and POC) under NT and RT were mostly influenced by NBS such as residue management, cropping pattern along with soil depth, mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature and soil texture. Our findings imply that when assessing the effects of conservation tillage methods on SOC sequestration, SOC fractions especially those taking part in driving soil biological activities, should be taken into account rather than total SOC. We conclude that conservation tillages under multiple cropping systems and with retention of crop residues enhance soil carbon sequestration as compared to CT in varying edaphic and climatic conditions of the world.}, }
@article {pmid36211721, year = {2022}, author = {Lu, HC and Hu, L and Liu, Y and Cheng, CF and Chen, W and Li, SD and He, F and Duan, CQ and Wang, J}, title = {Reducing the source/sink ratio of grapevine to face global warming in a semi-arid climate: Effects on volatile composition of Cabernet Sauvignon grapes and wines.}, journal = {Food chemistry: X}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {100449}, pmid = {36211721}, issn = {2590-1575}, abstract = {The heterogeneity of the vineyard environment caused high variability in grape metabolites and flavor profiles, and the phenomenon was more prominent in recent years of climate change. Herein, distal leaf removal was applied in semi-arid Xinjiang to adjust the source to sink ratio of grapevines for three consecutive years (2018-2020). The grape-derived volatiles showed high correlations with specific climate factors such as temperature changes in the growth period. Results showed that distal leaf removal increased the solar radiation reaching the clusters in the first few days after applying LR treatments while not affecting the temperature. The improvement in fruity and floral aroma intensity by distal leaf removal was founded not only in grape metabolites but also in wines. Moderate cluster exposure brought by distal leaf removal was beneficial for the accumulation of isoprenoids, which therefore increased the fruity and floral intensity of wines. The carry-over effect did not show in consecutively defoliated vines among vintages regarding the wine aroma profile.}, }
@article {pmid36211706, year = {2022}, author = {Abdelzaher, H and Tawfik, SM and Nour, A and Abdelkader, S and Elbalkiny, ST and Abdelkader, M and Abbas, WA and Abdelnaser, A}, title = {Climate change, human health, and the exposome: Utilizing OMIC technologies to navigate an era of uncertainty.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {973000}, pmid = {36211706}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Exposome ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; *Nucleic Acids ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an anthropogenic phenomenon that is alarming scientists and non-scientists alike. The emission of greenhouse gases is causing the temperature of the earth to rise and this increase is accompanied by a multitude of climate change-induced environmental exposures with potential health impacts. Tracking human exposure has been a major research interest of scientists worldwide. This has led to the development of exposome studies that examine internal and external individual exposures over their lifetime and correlate them to health. The monitoring of health has also benefited from significant technological advances in the field of "omics" technologies that analyze physiological changes on the nucleic acid, protein, and metabolism levels, among others. In this review, we discuss various climate change-induced environmental exposures and their potential health implications. We also highlight the potential integration of the technological advancements in the fields of exposome tracking, climate monitoring, and omics technologies shedding light on important questions that need to be answered.}, }
@article {pmid36210655, year = {2022}, author = {Alexander, A and Robbins, MB and Holmes, J and Moyle, RG and Peterson, AT}, title = {Limited movement of an avian hybrid zone in relation to regional variation in magnitude of climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {31}, number = {24}, pages = {6634-6648}, pmid = {36210655}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {P20 GM103638/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 GM145499/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Hybridization, Genetic ; Reproductive Isolation ; *Songbirds/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Studies of natural hybrid zones can provide documentation of range shifts in response to climate change and identify loci important to reproductive isolation. Using a temporal (36-38 years) comparison of the black-capped (Poecile atricapillus) and Carolina (P. carolinensis) chickadee hybrid zone, we investigated movement of the western portion of the zone (western Missouri) and assessed whether loci and pathways underpinning reproductive isolation were similar to those in the eastern portion of the hybrid zone. Using 92 birds sampled along the hybrid zone transect in 2016 and 68 birds sampled between 1978 and 1980, we generated 11,669 SNPs via ddRADseq. These SNPs were used to assess movement of the hybrid zone through time and to evaluate variation in introgression among loci. We demonstrate that the interface has moved ~5 km to the northwest over the last 36-38 years, that is, at only one-fifth the rate at which the eastern portion (e.g., Pennsylvania, Ohio) of the hybrid zone has moved. Temperature trends over the last 38 years reveal that eastern areas have warmed 50% more than western areas in terms of annual mean temperature, possibly providing an explanation for the slower movement of the hybrid zone in Missouri. Our results suggest hybrid zone movement in broadly distributed species, such as chickadees, will vary between areas in response to local differences in the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36209455, year = {2022}, author = {Braitberg, G}, title = {Climate change can be seen through a disaster medicine lens.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {217}, number = {9}, pages = {464-465}, pmid = {36209455}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Disaster Medicine ; *Disasters ; *Disaster Planning ; }, }
@article {pmid36209411, year = {2022}, author = {Laybourn-Langton, L and Muhia, J and El-Adawy, M and Sidibé, S and Zielinski, C}, title = {COP27 Climate Change Conference: urgent action needed for Africa and the world.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {36209411}, issn = {1708-8305}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid36209378, year = {2023}, author = {Al-Shihabi, F and Moore, A and Chowdhury, TA}, title = {Diabetes and climate change.}, journal = {Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {e14971}, doi = {10.1111/dme.14971}, pmid = {36209378}, issn = {1464-5491}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Quality of Life ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {It is widely accepted that climate change is the biggest threat to human health. The pandemic of diabetes is also a major threat to human health, especially in rapidly developing nations. Climate change and diabetes appear to have common global vectors, including increased urbanisation, increased use of transportation, and production and ingestion of ultra-processed foods. People with diabetes appear to be at higher risk of threats to health from climate change, including effects from extreme heat or extreme cold, and natural disasters. Solutions to climate change offer some benefits for the prevention of diabetes and diabetes-related complications. Moving towards lower carbon economies is likely to help reduce reliance on intensive agriculture, reduce physical inactivity, reduce air pollution and enhance quality of life. It may enable a reduction in the prevalence of diabetes and reduced morbidity from the condition.}, }
@article {pmid36209318, year = {2022}, author = {Sharma, RK and Kumar, S and Vatta, K and Bheemanahalli, R and Dhillon, J and Reddy, KN}, title = {Impact of recent climate change on corn, rice, and wheat in southeastern USA.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {16928}, pmid = {36209318}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Oryza ; Temperature ; *Triticum ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Climate change and its impact on agriculture productivity vary among crops and regions. The southeastern United States (SE-US) is agro-ecologically diversified, economically dependent on agriculture, and mostly overlooked by agroclimatic researchers. The objective of this study was to compute the effect of climatic variables; daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), and rainfall on the yield of major cereal crops i.e., corn (Zea mays L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in SE-US. A fixed-effect model (panel data approach) was used by applying the production function on panel data from 1980 to 2020 from 11 SE-US states. An asymmetrical warming pattern was observed, where nocturnal warming was 105.90%, 106.30%, and 32.14%, higher than the diurnal warming during corn, rice, and wheat growing seasons, respectively. Additionally, a shift in rainfall was noticed ranging from 19.2 to 37.2 mm over different growing seasons. Rainfall significantly reduced wheat yield, while, it had no effect on corn and rice yields. The Tmax and Tmin had no significant effect on wheat yield. A 1 °C rise in Tmax significantly decreased corn (- 34%) and rice (- 8.30%) yield which was offset by a 1 °C increase in Tmin increasing corn (47%) and rice (22.40%) yield. Conclusively, overall temperature change of 1 °C in the SE-US significantly improved corn yield by 13%, rice yield by 14.10%, and had no effect on wheat yield.}, }
@article {pmid36208554, year = {2022}, author = {Pedersen, KB and Lejon, T and Jensen, PE and Ottosen, LM and Frantzen, M and Evenset, A}, title = {Impacts of climate change on metal leaching and partitioning for submarine mine tailings disposal.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {184}, number = {}, pages = {114197}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.114197}, pmid = {36208554}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Copper/analysis ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Climate Change ; Metals/analysis ; Water/analysis ; *Metals, Heavy/analysis ; }, abstract = {At present, there are no standardised tests to assess metal leaching during submarine tailings discharge. In this study the influence of variables known to affect metal mobility and availability (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), pH, salinity, temperature, aerated/anoxic conditions) along with variables affected by the discharge conditions (flocculant concentration, suspension) were studied in bench-scale experiments. The leaching tests were developed based on the case of a copper mine by Repparfjorden, northern Norway, which is planned to re-open in 2022. The experiments, which had three week duration, revealed low (<6 %) leaching of metals. Multivariate analysis showed that all variables, apart from DOC, highly influenced leaching and partitioning of at least one metal (Ba, Cr, Cu, and/or Mn). The high quantity of the planned annual discharge of mine tailings to the fjord (1-2 million tonnes) warranted estimation of the leached quantity of metals. Multivariate models, using present-day conditions in the fjord, estimated leaching of up to 124 kg Ba, 154 kg Cu and 2400 kg Mn per year during discharge of tailings. Future changes in the fjord conditions caused by climate change (decreased pH, increased temperature) was predicted by the multivariate models to increase the leaching up to 55 %, by the year 2065. The bench-scale experiments demonstrated the importance of including relevant variables (such as pH, salinity, and temperature) for metal leaching and -partitioning in leaching tests. The results showed that metal leaching during discharge is expected and will increase in the future due to the changed conditions caused by the foreseen climate change, and thereby underline the importance of monitoring metal concentrations in water during operations to determine the fate of metals in the fjord.}, }
@article {pmid36208504, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, H and Chen, Y and Wang, J and Wang, Y and Wang, L and Duan, Z}, title = {Effects of temperature on the toxicity of waterborne nanoparticles under global warming: Facts and mechanisms.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {181}, number = {}, pages = {105757}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105757}, pmid = {36208504}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Global Warming ; Temperature ; *Nanoparticles/toxicity ; Oxidative Stress ; Reactive Oxygen Species/metabolism ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is predicted to increase the average temperature of aquatic environments. Temperature changes modulate the toxicity of emerging chemical contaminants, such as nanoparticles (NPs). However, current hazard assessments of waterborne NPs seldom consider the influence of temperature. In this review, we gathered and analyzed the effects of temperature on the toxicity of waterborne NPs in different organisms. There was a general decrease in bioavailability with increasing temperature in algae and plants due to NPs aggregation, thus, reducing their toxicities. However, the agglomerated large particles caused by the increase in temperature induce a shading effect and inhibit algal photosynthesis. The toxicity of NPs in microorganisms and aquatic animals increases with increasing temperature. This may be due to the significant influence of high temperature on the uptake and excretion of chemicals across membranes, which increase the production of reactive oxygen species and enhance oxidative damage to organisms. High temperature also affect the formation and composition of a protein corona on NPs, altering their toxicity. Our results provide new insights into the toxicity of NPs in the context of global warming, and highlight the deficiencies of current research on NPs.}, }
@article {pmid36208444, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {Transboundary and emerging diseases and climate change. What is needed to advance our knowledge?.}, journal = {Transboundary and emerging diseases}, volume = {69}, number = {6}, pages = {3145-3146}, doi = {10.1111/tbed.14726}, pmid = {36208444}, issn = {1865-1682}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid36208378, year = {2022}, author = {Chen, J and Zhong, F and Sun, D}, title = {Lessons from farmers' adaptive practices to climate change in China: a systematic literature review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {54}, pages = {81183-81197}, pmid = {36208378}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {71873067//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2017YFE0118100//China-Europe Efficient Water Management Research Platform/ ; KYCX20_0611//Graduate Research and Innovation Projects of Jiangsu Province/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Farmers ; Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Agriculture/methods ; China ; Water ; }, abstract = {Due to the vulnerability and exposure of agriculture, farmers' adaptive strategies to climate change are important to food security and sustainable environment development. However, a systematic review is still absent, though there are many studies about farmers' adaptations to climate change, and few studies discuss their potential impacts on climate change. This article analyses farmers' adaptation strategies and their heterogeneities across regions in China via a systemic literature review. Then we also discuss possible driving factors of these adaptations and their potential impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. We follow the updated Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA 2020) guidelines to identify and screen publications. A total of 448 relevant records were identified from the Web of Science, Elsevier ScienceDirect, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We include peer-reviewed publications focusing on farmers engaged in crop farming in China, with survey data and specific adoption ratio analysis of adaptations to climate change. After screening, 27 articles were finally analysed. Our results show that crop variety management, rescheduling farming, increasing production inputs, increasing irrigation, and crop structure management are prevalent strategies reported in the existing literature. However, sustainable adaptations such as improving farmland's ecological environment and agronomic water-saving irrigation gain less attention. Besides, farmers in northern China adapt to climate change more actively compared to their counterparts in southern China. Moreover, some adaptations with high adoption ratios, such as increased chemical inputs, might increase greenhouse gas emissions and accelerate climate change. Our findings have important implications for food security and sustainable agricultural development.}, }
@article {pmid36208119, year = {2022}, author = {Yu, Y and He, G and Li, DY and Zhao, XM and Chang, J and Liu, XC and Xiang, ZF and Li, BG and Li, M}, title = {Climate change challenge, extinction risk, and successful conservation experiences for a threatened primate species in China: Golden snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana).}, journal = {Zoological research}, volume = {43}, number = {6}, pages = {940-944}, pmid = {36208119}, issn = {2095-8137}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; Climate Change ; *Colobinae ; *Endangered Species ; }, }
@article {pmid36207028, year = {2022}, author = {Raina, S}, title = {Tobacco control, climate change, public health, primary care-the name of the game is "conflict of interest".}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o2408}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2408}, pmid = {36207028}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Air Conditioning ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Primary Health Care ; *Public Health ; Nicotiana ; *Tobacco Industry ; }, }
@article {pmid36207015, year = {2022}, author = {Fraser, S}, title = {It makes no sense for Thérèse Coffey to continue to vote against measures to prevent climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {379}, number = {}, pages = {o2410}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2410}, pmid = {36207015}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid36205864, year = {2023}, author = {Sohail, MT}, title = {A PLS-SEM approach to determine farmers' awareness about climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies: pathway toward sustainable environment and agricultural productivity.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {18199-18212}, pmid = {36205864}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; Male ; Female ; Aged ; *Farmers ; *Climate Change ; Agriculture/methods ; Acclimatization ; Educational Status ; }, abstract = {This research was conducted in a significant agricultural region to gauge farmers' knowledge of climate change adaption strategies. We employed a semi-structured questionnaire based on the literature; it was broken up into sections, and used certain statistical techniques (PLS-SEM) to examine the results. Farmers who had sufficient assets and resources thought they were safer and could withstand the adverse effects of climate change. A total of 900 completed questionnaires were gathered to investigate the link between the control, moderator, and DV variables in the future. As a consequence, the PLS-SEM path analysis findings showed that our model is fit. PLS-SEM direct path analysis revealed AM > FACC, UA- > FACC, SA- > FACC, FS- > FACC, PR- > FACC, and SI- > FACC are significant. The established hypotheses H1-H6 are strengthened by these findings. We also examined the respondents' ages and genders to use as controls; whereas gender showed no correlation with FACC, there was a strong link between age and the dependent variable. There is no statistically significant correlation between gender and climate change awareness, but older people tend to have a broader understanding of the topic and its consequences. Education significantly moderates the relationship of farmer's awareness (climate change) associated with AM, UA, SA, FS, PR, and SI. depicts the moderation role of education on the relationship between AM*Education- > FACC, UA*Education- > FACC, SA*Education- > FACC, FS*Education- > FACC, PR*Education- > FACC, and SI*Education- > FACC. H2a and H5a in this study showed significant correlations with education as a moderator; however, H1a, H3a, H4, and H6a did not demonstrate any moderator relationships. There is a medium to strong correlation between various factors, and the correlation values of a few chosen variables are significant when compared to all other variables in the current study. Highly significant correlations were found between PR, SA, SI, and UA with FACC. Governmental policies and effective monitoring systems will be developed as a result of the research to enable integrated and sustainable water development.}, }
@article {pmid36205432, year = {2022}, author = {Bogar, K and Brensinger, CM and Hennessy, S and Flory, JH and Bell, ML and Shi, C and Bilker, WB and Leonard, CE}, title = {Climate Change and Ambient Temperature Extremes: Association With Serious Hypoglycemia, Diabetic Ketoacidosis, and Sudden Cardiac Arrest/Ventricular Arrhythmia in People With Type 2 Diabetes.}, journal = {Diabetes care}, volume = {45}, number = {11}, pages = {e171-e173}, pmid = {36205432}, issn = {1935-5548}, support = {/CC/CDC HHS/United States ; R01 CE003347/CE/NCIPC CDC HHS/United States ; P30 CA008748/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; P30 AG012836/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES013508/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R25 DK108711/DK/NIDDK NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AG060975/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; R01 MH130435/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; /WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; R01 AG064589/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; UL1 TR001863/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 DA048001/DA/NIDA NIH HHS/United States ; R21 AG048001/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AG025152/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Diabetic Ketoacidosis ; *Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 ; Climate Change ; Temperature ; Death, Sudden, Cardiac ; *Hypoglycemia ; Arrhythmias, Cardiac ; }, }
@article {pmid36204766, year = {2022}, author = {Atiqul Haq, SM}, title = {Extreme Weather Events and Spiraling Debt: A Double Whammy for Bangladeshis Affected by Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {879219}, pmid = {36204766}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {This study explores how people living in different areas of Bangladesh prone to extreme weather events (EWEs) in the form of floods, cyclones, or droughts perceive climate change, the impacts they suffer in the face of EWEs, and how they cope with their consequences. Qualitative data was collected through in-depth interviews with 73 respondents from three different areas of Bangladesh and subsequently analyzed. The results show that there are similarities and differences between respondents from regions with different vulnerabilities in terms of their views and perceptions about what climate change is its causes, the consequences of EWEs, and the strategies they adopt to cope with their effects. Respondents understood climate change based on their own local experiences of climate change and EWEs. A main finding is that people in all three areas are driven to borrow money in the face of these events as a survival strategy and to be able to continue to support their families. As the climate is set to change rapidly and EWEs to occur more frequently and regularly, it will become routine for those most vulnerable to them to have to cope and live with their impacts. Increased reliance on borrowing risks leading to a debt spiral for already vulnerable people. They are thus subject to a "double whammy": on the one hand the direct effects of climate change and EWEs on their lives and livelihoods and on the other getting caught in a debt spiral sparked by times of crisis.}, }
@article {pmid36204083, year = {2022}, author = {Serna, L}, title = {Maize stomatal responses against the climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {952146}, pmid = {36204083}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Drought and heat, in the context of climate change, are expected to increase in many agricultural areas across the globe. Among current abiotic stresses, they are the most limiting factors that influence crop growth and productivity. Maize is one of most widely produced crops of the world, being the first in grain production with a yield that exceeded 1.1 billion tons in 2021. Despite its wide distribution in semi-arid regions, it is highly vulnerable to climate change, which triggers important losses in its productivity. This article explores how maize yield may persevere through climate change by focusing on the stomatal regulation of gas exchange. The emerging picture unravels that maize copes with drought stress by reducing stomatal size and stomatal pore area, and increasing stomatal density, which, in turn, reduces transpiration and photosynthetic rate. When drought and heat co-occur, heat enhances stomatal response to drought stress. To avoid plant heat damage, the decline in stomatal aperture could trigger the expansion of the distance of action, from the longitudinal leaf veins, of ZmSHR1, which might act to positively regulate ZmSPCHs/ZmICE1 heterodimers, increasing the stomatal density. Only when drought is not very severe, elevated CO2 levels reduce yield losses. The knowledge of the upcoming climate changes together with the prediction of the developmental and physiological stomatal responses will allow not only to anticipate maize yield in the next years, but also to contribute to the correct decision-making in the management of this important crop.}, }
@article {pmid36203967, year = {2022}, author = {Alves, F and Schmidt, L}, title = {Editorial: Climate change and society.}, journal = {Frontiers in sociology}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {991193}, doi = {10.3389/fsoc.2022.991193}, pmid = {36203967}, issn = {2297-7775}, }
@article {pmid36203903, year = {2022}, author = {Tiwari, I and Tilstra, M and Campbell, SM and Nielsen, CC and Hodgins, S and Osornio Vargas, AR and Whitfield, K and Sapkota, BP and Yamamoto, SS}, title = {Climate change impacts on the health of South Asian children and women subpopulations - A scoping review.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {e10811}, pmid = {36203903}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Climate change impacts are felt unequally worldwide; populations that experience geographical vulnerability, those living in small island states and densely populated coastal areas, and children and women are affected disproportionately. This scoping review aims to synthesize evidence from relevant studies centred on South Asia, identify research gaps specifically focused on children and women's health, and contribute to knowledge about South Asia's existing mitigation and adaptation strategies.<br><br>METHODS: A research librarian executed the search on six databases using controlled vocabulary (e.g., MeSH, Emtree, etc.) and keywords representing the concepts "vulnerable populations" and "climate change" and "health impacts" and "South Asia." Databases were searched from January 2010 to May 2020. Papers were screened independently by two researchers.<br><br>RESULTS: Forty-two studies were included, of which 23 were based in India, 14 in Bangladesh, and five in other South Asian countries. Nineteen studies focused on meteorological factors as the primary exposure. In contrast, thirteen focused on extreme weather events, nine on air pollution, and one on salinity in coastal areas. Thirty-four studies focused on the health impacts on children related to extreme weather events, meteorological factors, and air pollution, while only eight studies looked at health impacts on women. Undernutrition, ARI (acute respiratory infection), diarrheal diseases, low birth weight, and premature mortality were the major health impacts attributed to extreme weather events, meteorological factors, and air pollution exposure in children and women in the region.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Extreme weather events, meteorological factors and air pollution have affected the health of children and women in South Asia. However, the gap in the literature across the South Asian countries concerning relationships between exposure to extreme weather events, meteorological factors, air pollution and health effects, including mental health problems in children and women, are opportunities for future work.}, }
@article {pmid36202357, year = {2023}, author = {Margalef-Marrase, J and Molowny-Horas, R and Jaime, L and Lloret, F}, title = {Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {856}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {159063}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159063}, pmid = {36202357}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Pinus sylvestris ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Trees/physiology ; Droughts ; Seedlings ; *Pinus ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in terms of demography and vegetation dynamics have been less thoroughly addressed. Here, we projected P. sylvestris plot dynamics after a die-off event, under climate change scenarios, considering also their early demographic stages (i.e., seedlings, saplings and ingrowth from the sapling to adult class), to assess the resilience of P. sylvestris populations after such events. We used Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to project future plot structure under current climate, and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 climate scenarios, using climatic suitability - extracted from Species Distribution Models - as a covariable in the estimations of vital rates over time. Field data feeding IPMs were obtained from two successive surveys, at the end of the die-off event (2013) and four years later (2017), undertaken on populations situated across the P. sylvestris range of distribution in Catalonia (NE Spain). Plots affected by die-off experienced a loss of large trees, which causes that basal area, tree diameter and tree density will remain lower for decades relative to unaffected plots. After the event, this situation is partially counterbalanced in affected plots by a greater increase in basal area and seedling recruitment into tree stage, thus promoting resilience. However, resilience is delayed under the climate-change scenarios with warmer and drier conditions involving additional physiological stress, due to a reduced abundance of seedlings and a smaller plot basal area. The study shows lagged effect of drought-induced die-off events on forest structure, also revealing stabilizing mechanisms, such as recruitment and tree growth release, which enhance resilience. However, these mechanisms would be jeopardized by oncoming regional warming.}, }
@article {pmid36201599, year = {2022}, author = {Steel, D and DesRoches, CT and Mintz-Woo, K}, title = {Climate change and the threat to civilization.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {42}, pages = {e2210525119}, pmid = {36201599}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Civilization ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36201440, year = {2022}, author = {Okruszek, &#x141; and Piejka, A and Banasik-Jemielniak, N and Jemielniak, D}, title = {Climate change, vaccines, GMO: The N400 effect as a marker of attitudes toward scientific issues.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {10}, pages = {e0273346}, pmid = {36201440}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Attitude ; Climate Change ; Electroencephalography ; *Evoked Potentials ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Plants, Genetically Modified ; Semantics ; *Vaccines ; }, abstract = {While the psychological predictors of antiscience beliefs have been extensively studied, neural underpinnings of the antiscience beliefs have received relatively little interest. The aim of the current study is to investigate whether attitudes towards the scientific issues are reflected in the N400 potential. Thirty-one individuals were asked to judge whether six different issues presented as primes (vaccines, medicines, nuclear energy, solar energy, genetically-modified organisms (GMO), natural farming) are well-described by ten positive and ten negative target words. EEG was recorded during the task. Furthermore, participants were asked to rate their own expertise in each of the six topics. Both positive and negative target words related to GMO elicited larger N400, than targets associated with vaccines and natural farming. The results of the current study show that N400 may be an indicator of the ambiguous attitude toward scientific issues.}, }
@article {pmid36199230, year = {2023}, author = {Stemkovski, M and Bell, JR and Ellwood, ER and Inouye, BD and Kobori, H and Lee, SD and Lloyd-Evans, T and Primack, RB and Templ, B and Pearse, WD}, title = {Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {104}, number = {1}, pages = {e3846}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.3846}, pmid = {36199230}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {BBS/E/C/000J0200/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Flowers ; Plant Leaves ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.}, }
@article {pmid36197804, year = {2022}, author = {Aguirre-Liguori, JA and Morales-Cruz, A and Gaut, BS}, title = {Evaluating the persistence and utility of five wild Vitis species in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {31}, number = {24}, pages = {6457-6472}, pmid = {36197804}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {*Vitis/genetics ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics ; Phenotype ; Genomics ; }, abstract = {Crop wild relatives (CWRs) have the capacity to contribute novel traits to agriculture. Given climate change, these contributions may be especially vital for the persistence of perennial crops, because perennials are often clonally propagated and consequently do not evolve rapidly. By studying the landscape genomics of samples from five Vitis CWRs (V. arizonica, V. mustangensis, V. riparia, V. berlandieri and V. girdiana) in the context of projected climate change, we addressed two goals. The first was to assess the relative potential of different CWR accessions to persist in the face of climate change. By integrating species distribution models with adaptive genetic variation, additional genetic features such as genomic load and a phenotype (resistance to Pierce's Disease), we predicted that accessions from one species (V. mustangensis) are particularly well-suited to persist in future climates. The second goal was to identify which CWR accessions may contribute to bioclimatic adaptation for grapevine (V. vinifera) cultivation. To do so, we evaluated whether CWR accessions have the allelic capacity to persist if moved to locations where grapevines are cultivated in the United States. We identified six candidates from V. mustangensis and hypothesized that they may prove useful for contributing alleles that can mitigate climate impacts on viticulture. By identifying candidate germplasm, this study takes a conceptual step toward assessing the genomic and bioclimatic characteristics of CWRs.}, }
@article {pmid36196982, year = {2022}, author = {Vorkamp, K and Carlsson, P and Corsolini, S and de Wit, CA and Dietz, R and Gribble, MO and Houde, M and Kalia, V and Letcher, RJ and Morris, A and Rigét, FF and Routti, H and Muir, DCG}, title = {Influences of climate change on long-term time series of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Arctic and Antarctic biota.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {1643-1660}, doi = {10.1039/d2em00134a}, pmid = {36196982}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {*Persistent Organic Pollutants ; Environmental Monitoring ; Climate Change ; Time Factors ; Ecosystem ; Antarctic Regions ; Arctic Regions ; *Environmental Pollutants/analysis ; Biota ; }, abstract = {Time series of contaminants in the Arctic are an important instrument to detect emerging issues and to monitor the effectiveness of chemicals regulation, based on the assumption of a direct reflection of changes in primary emissions. Climate change has the potential to influence these time trends, through direct physical and chemical processes and/or changes in ecosystems. This study was part of an assessment of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), analysing potential links between changes in climate-related physical and biological variables and time trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Arctic biota, with some additional information from the Antarctic. Several correlative relationships were identified between POP temporal trends in freshwater and marine biota and physical climate parameters such as oscillation indices, sea-ice coverage, temperature and precipitation, although the mechanisms behind these observations remain poorly understood. Biological data indicate changes in the diet and trophic level of some species, especially seabirds and polar bears, with consequences for their POP exposure. Studies from the Antarctic highlight increased POP availability after iceberg calving. Including physical and/or biological parameters in the POP time trend analysis has led to small deviations in some declining trends, but did generally not change the overall direction of the trend. In addition, regional and temporary perturbations occurred. Effects on POP time trends appear to have been more pronounced in recent years and to show time lags, suggesting that climate-related effects on the long time series might be gaining importance.}, }
@article {pmid36196433, year = {2022}, author = {Koliev, F and Page, D and Tallberg, J}, title = {The Domestic Impact of International Shaming: Evidence from Climate Change and Human Rights.}, journal = {Public opinion quarterly}, volume = {86}, number = {3}, pages = {748-761}, doi = {10.1093/poq/nfac026}, pmid = {36196433}, issn = {0033-362X}, abstract = {Do international shaming efforts affect citizens' support for government policies? While it is a frequent claim in the literature that shaming works through domestic politics, we know little about how and when international criticism affects domestic public opinion. We address this question through an originally designed survey experiment in Sweden, which (i) compares the effects of international shaming in two issue areas-human rights and climate change, and (ii) tests whether government responses to criticism moderate the impact of shaming. Our main findings are fourfold. First, we find substantial effects of international shaming on domestic public opinion. These effects hold across both issue areas and irrespective of whether citizens support government parties or not. Second, human rights shaming has a stronger impact on citizens' support for government policies than climate shaming. Third, shaming is most effective among citizens who are more supportive of climate action, human rights, and international cooperation. Finally, our findings are mixed with respect to the effect of government responses. While government responses do not moderate the effects of human rights shaming, they seem to mitigate the effects of climate shaming.}, }
@article {pmid36193338, year = {2022}, author = {Obhodas, J and Castellote, M and Romano, E and Heise, S and Lemiere, B}, title = {Sediment challenges and opportunities due to climate change and sustainable development.}, journal = {Journal of soils and sediments}, volume = {22}, number = {11}, pages = {2841-2843}, pmid = {36193338}, issn = {1439-0108}, }
@article {pmid36192542, year = {2022}, author = {Mellin, C and Hicks, CC and Fordham, DA and Golden, CD and Kjellevold, M and MacNeil, MA and Maire, E and Mangubhai, S and Mouillot, D and Nash, KL and Omukoto, JO and Robinson, JPW and Stuart-Smith, RD and Zamborain-Mason, J and Edgar, GJ and Graham, NAJ}, title = {Safeguarding nutrients from coral reefs under climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {1808-1817}, pmid = {36192542}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Coral Reefs ; Climate Change ; *Anthozoa/physiology ; Fisheries ; Fishes/physiology ; Nutrients ; }, abstract = {The sustainability of coral reef fisheries is jeopardized by complex and interacting socio-ecological stressors that undermine their contribution to food and nutrition security. Climate change has emerged as one of the key stressors threatening coral reefs and their fish-associated services. How fish nutrient concentrations respond to warming oceans remains unclear but these responses are probably affected by both direct (metabolism and trophodynamics) and indirect (habitat and species range shifts) effects. Climate-driven coral habitat loss can cause changes in fish abundance and biomass, revealing potential winners and losers among major fisheries targets that can be predicted using ecological indicators and biological traits. A critical next step is to extend research focused on the quantity of available food (fish biomass) to also consider its nutritional quality, which is relevant to progress in the fields of food security and malnutrition. Biological traits are robust predictors of fish nutrient content and thus potentially indicate how climate-driven changes are expected to impact nutrient availability within future food webs on coral reefs. Here, we outline future research priorities and an anticipatory framework towards sustainable reef fisheries contributing to nutrition-sensitive food systems in a warming ocean.}, }
@article {pmid36192097, year = {2022}, author = {Martin, G and Cosma, A and Roswell, T and Anderson, M and Leslie, K and Card, KG and Closson, K and Kennedy, AM and Gislason, MK}, title = {Measuring negative emotional responses to climate change among young people in survey research: a systematic review protocol.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {e062449}, pmid = {36192097}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; Emotions ; Humans ; Patient Reported Outcome Measures ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Research Design ; Review Literature as Topic ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Many young people report experiencing negative emotional responses to their awareness of climate change and the threats it poses to their future. With that, an increasing number of survey instruments have been developed to examine young people's negative emotional responses to their awareness of climate change. This report describes a protocol for a systematic review that aims to identify, synthesise and critically appraise how negative emotional responses to climate change among young people have been measured in survey research. The research questions addressed in this review are: (1) How has negative emotional responses to climate change been defined and measured among young people? (2) How do survey instruments measuring young people's negative emotional responses to climate change vary in terms of reliability and validity? (3) What factors are associated with negative emotional responses to climate change among young people?<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Seven academic databases (CINAHL, ERIC, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Web of Science, Scopus, and Environment Complete) will be searched to retrieve studies published between 1 January 2006 and 31 March 2022 and published in English. Studies including survey instruments that measure negative emotional responses among young people (aged 10-24 years) will be eligible for inclusion. Targeted journals will be hand-searched. This review will follow Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 guidelines for systematic reviews. The methodological quality, in terms of reliability and validity, of the included studies will be assessed using the Consensus-based Standards for the Selection of Health Measurement Instruments (COSMIN) checklist for risk of bias of patient-reported outcome measures. To rate the quality of the instruments, we will use a modified Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations technique defined by the COSMIN guidelines.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not applicable for this study. We will disseminate the findings through publication in peer-reviewed journals and presentations.<br><br>PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022295733.}, }
@article {pmid36189610, year = {2023}, author = {Ayalon, L and Roy, S}, title = {The Role of Ageism in Climate Change Worries and Willingness to Act.}, journal = {Journal of applied gerontology : the official journal of the Southern Gerontological Society}, volume = {42}, number = {6}, pages = {1305-1312}, doi = {10.1177/07334648221130323}, pmid = {36189610}, issn = {1552-4523}, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; *Ageism/psychology ; Aging/psychology ; Climate Change ; Australia ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {This study examined the association of negative ageist prescriptive expectations regarding older people with worries about climate change and willingness to act. An online survey was completed by 250 Australians over the age 18. Higher levels of ageism (e.g., negative prescriptive views towards older people) were associated with fears about the impact of climate change on one's life, worries about the impact of climate change on older members of the family, and willingness to pay higher taxes to fight climate change. Holding more negative prescriptive views towards older people can serve as an incentive to act and at the same time carries an emotional negative valence associated with concerns and worries about the impact of climate change. Although willingness to act and concerns about climate change may inspire adaptation and mitigation efforts, it is important to ensure that they are not tied to ageism.}, }
@article {pmid36187615, year = {2022}, author = {Pirkle, LT and Jennings, N and Vercammen, A and Lawrance, EL}, title = {Current understanding of the impact of climate change on mental health within UK parliament.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {913857}, pmid = {36187615}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Anxiety ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Mental Health ; *Suicide ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {There is growing evidence that climate change is linked to adverse mental health outcomes, with both direct and indirect impacts already being felt globally, including within the United Kingdom (UK). With the UK parliament tasked with passing legislation to mitigate against and adapt to climate change, it is well placed to take a lead in implementing policies that reduce the impact of climate change on mental health and even provide mental health benefits (e.g., by increasing access to green space). The extent to which the UK parliament considers the relationship between climate change and mental health in its decision-making was previously unknown. We report, through quantitative thematic analysis of the UK Hansard database, that the UK parliament has only infrequently made links between climate change and mental health. Where links have been made, the primary focus of the speeches were around flooding and anxiety. Key mental health impacts of climate change reported in the academic literature, such as high temperature and suicides, or experiences of eco-anxiety, were found to be missing entirely. Further, policies suggested in UK parliament to minimise the impact of climate change on mental health were focused on pushing adaptation measures such as flood defences rather than climate mitigation, indicating potential missed opportunities for effective policies with co-benefits for tackling climate change and mental health simultaneously. Therefore, this research suggests a need to raise awareness for UK policymakers of the costs of climate inaction on mental health, and potential co-benefits of climate action on mental health. Our results provide insight into where links have and have not been made to date, to inform targeted awareness raising and ultimately equip policymakers to protect the UK from the increasingly large impacts of climate change on mental health.}, }
@article {pmid36186913, year = {2022}, author = {Adesete, AA and Olanubi, OE and Dauda, RO}, title = {Climate change and food security in selected Sub-Saharan African Countries.}, journal = {Environment, development and sustainability}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-19}, pmid = {36186913}, issn = {1573-2975}, abstract = {This study examined the nexus between climate change and food security in Sub-Saharan African Region (SSA). With focus on 30 countries within the region, the study employed the dynamic panel data analysis using the one-step and two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) model. The time observed spanned from 2000 through 2019. The study found that increase in greenhouse gas emission would lead to an increase in prevalence of malnourishment rate, resulting in a decrease in food security in SSA. In addition, climate change and food price have a negative significant effect on food security, while income and food supply have a positive significant impact on food security in SSA. The findings also revealed that the decline in carbon emission is expected to boost agricultural supply and productivity, reduce the prevalence of malnourishment rate and promote food security. Thus, the study recommends that SSA region should be more deliberate about meeting its targets towards achieving zero net emission. Furthermore, the region should improve its domestic food production capacity by implementing policies that will support improvement in agricultural production in the region.}, }
@article {pmid36176331, year = {2021}, author = {Choisy, M and McBride, A and Chambers, M and Ho Quang, C and Nguyen Quang, H and Xuan Chau, NT and Thi, GN and Bonell, A and Evans, M and Ming, D and Ngo-Duc, T and Quang Thai, P and Dang Giang, DH and Dan Thanh, HN and Ngoc Nhung, H and Lowe, R and Maude, R and Elyazar, I and Surendra, H and Ashley, EA and Thwaites, L and van Doorn, HR and Kestelyn, E and Dondorp, AM and Thwaites, G and Vinh Chau, NV and Yacoub, S}, title = {Climate change and health in Southeast Asia - defining research priorities and the role of the Wellcome Trust Africa Asia Programmes.}, journal = {Wellcome open research}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {278}, doi = {10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17263.3}, pmid = {36176331}, issn = {2398-502X}, abstract = {This article summarises a recent virtual meeting organised by the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Vietnam on the topic of climate change and health, bringing local partners, faculty and external collaborators together from across the Wellcome and Oxford networks. Attendees included invited local and global climate scientists, clinicians, modelers, epidemiologists and community engagement practitioners, with a view to setting priorities, identifying synergies and fostering collaborations to help define the regional climate and health research agenda. In this summary paper, we outline the major themes and topics that were identified and what will be needed to take forward this research for the next decade. We aim to take a broad, collaborative approach to including climate science in our current portfolio where it touches on infectious diseases now, and more broadly in our future research directions. We will focus on strengthening our research portfolio on climate-sensitive diseases, and supplement this with high quality data obtained from internal studies and external collaborations, obtained by multiple methods, ranging from traditional epidemiology to innovative technology and artificial intelligence and community-led research. Through timely agenda setting and involvement of local stakeholders, we aim to help support and shape research into global heating and health in the region.}, }
@article {pmid36184681, year = {2022}, author = {Huang, L and Timmermann, A and Lee, SS and Rodgers, KB and Yamaguchi, R and Chung, ES}, title = {Emerging unprecedented lake ice loss in climate change projections.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {5798}, pmid = {36184681}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Ice Cover ; *Lakes ; }, abstract = {Seasonal ice in lakes plays an important role for local communities and lake ecosystems. Here we use Large Ensemble simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2, which includes a lake simulator, to quantify the response of lake ice to greenhouse warming and to determine emergence patterns of anthropogenic lake ice loss. Our model simulations show that the average duration of ice coverage and maximum ice thickness are projected to decrease over the next 80 years by 38 days and 0.23 m, respectively. In the Canadian Arctic, lake ice loss is accelerated by the cold-season polar amplification. Lake ice on the Tibetan Plateau decreases rapidly due to a combination of strong insolation forcing and ice-albedo feedbacks. Comparing the anthropogenic signal with natural variability represented by the Large Ensemble, we find that lake ecosystems in these regions may be exposed to no-analogue ice coverage within the next 4-5 decades.}, }
@article {pmid36184664, year = {2023}, author = {Muyambo, F and Belle, J and Nyam, YS and Orimoloye, IR}, title = {Climate-Change-Induced Weather Events and Implications for Urban Water Resource Management in the Free State Province of South Africa.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {71}, number = {1}, pages = {40-54}, pmid = {36184664}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {2019/2020-00239//Water Research Commission South Africa/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; South Africa/epidemiology ; *Water Resources ; *Biodiversity ; Water ; Climate Change ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Current climate projections for Southern Africa indicate an increase in the incidence of extreme weather events in the future. Even though South Africa does not rank among the highest on the world multi-hazard index list, the country is prone to multiple climate-related extreme events which pose substantial human and ecological impacts. Consequently, such climate extremes have serious negative effects on regional water resources, public health, biodiversity, food security, natural systems, and infrastructure. The main aim of this study is to review the literature on climate-change-induced weather events and the implications for urban water resource management in South Africa particularly focusing on QwaQwa. The study reviewed 122 documents which include books, peer-reviewed articles, conference papers, newspaper articles, institutional and government reports, and one news broadcast video. Findings revealed that QwaQwa experiences increasing water challenges as demand for water increases and both quantity and quality decrease to critical levels. This study, therefore, provides preliminary suggestions of strategies to build resilience in this climate change context, such as investment in climate-resilient water infrastructure, effective and transparent management of public resources with accountability, strengthening resilience through addressing poverty and marginalisation, nature-based solutions, and education and awareness. Furthermore, conducting hazard, exposure, and resilience analyses is necessary in order to inform the development of relevant disaster risk reduction strategies. The findings contribute to the literature on climate change impacts on water resource planning in South Africa and similar climate change contexts. The findings could; therefore, be valuable to researchers and applied practitioners such as policymakers, water resource management professionals, and urban planners.}, }
@article {pmid36181798, year = {2023}, author = {Liu, W and Feng, Q and Engel, BA and Zhang, X}, title = {Cost-effectiveness analysis of extensive green roofs for urban stormwater control in response to future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {856}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {159127}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159127}, pmid = {36181798}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Water Movements ; *Climate Change ; Hydrology ; Rain ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; }, abstract = {Green roof, as a popular low impact development practice, has become important to mitigate adverse impacts of future climate change on urban stormwater. However, there is limited information regarding assessment of the effectiveness of green roofs in response to uncertain future climate change challenges. In this study, the validated model was used to simulate the reduction performance of green roofs on urban catchment outflow and assess their cost-effectiveness in response to design storms under climate change scenarios. Results showed that the median runoff volume of urban catchments increased by 12.5 %-14.6 % and 15.5 %-18.1 % and the median peak flow rate increased by 14.4 %-17.8 % and 17.9 %-22.1 % under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. This indicated the variability of runoff volume and peak flow changes for short return storm events caused by climate change was relatively high. Green roof implementation had reasonable mitigation effects on runoff volume and peak flow amplification in urban catchments caused by climate change. The median runoff volume reduction of green roofs for the 1-year storm was 15.2 % under SSP2-4.5 scenario. As rainfall intensity increased, the median runoff volume reduction of green roofs significantly declined to 5.6 % for the 100-year storm. However, the variations of runoff volume and peak flow reduction of green roofs were relatively smaller for longer return periods under climate change scenarios. Runoff reduction percentages of green roofs increased linearly with their implementation cost. The average value of the cost-effectiveness (C/E) index for green roofs was 91.2 %/million $ under base climate condition, and it decreased to 88.9 %/million $ and 88.4 %/million $ for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The C/E values decreased with increasing storm return period, and the values were relatively lower in SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These results could help to understand the potential role of green roofs to mitigate the impacts of future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36180742, year = {2022}, author = {Sanderson, K}, title = {What do Nord Stream methane leaks mean for climate change?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-03111-x}, pmid = {36180742}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid36180484, year = {2022}, author = {Tariq, G and Sun, H and Ali, I and Pasha, AA and Khan, MS and Rahman, MM and Mohamed, A and Shah, Q}, title = {Influence of green technology, green energy consumption, energy efficiency, trade, economic development and FDI on climate change in South Asia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {16376}, pmid = {36180484}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Asia ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Economic Development ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Investments ; Renewable Energy ; Technology ; }, abstract = {Climate change policy has several potential risks. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of green technology development, green energy consumption, energy efficiency, foreign direct investment, economic growth, and trade (imports and exports) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in South Asia from 1981 to 2018. We employed Breusch Pagan LM, bias-corrected scaled LM, and Pesaran CD as part of a series of techniques that can assist in resolving the problem of cross-sectional dependence. First and second generation unit root tests are used to assess the stationarity of the series, Pedroni and Kao tests are used to test co-integration. The long-term associations are examined using fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) for robustness. The results revealed that trade, growth rate, and exports significantly increase GHG emissions. This accepted the leakage phenomenon. The results also demonstrated that green technology development, green energy consumption, energy efficiency, and imports all have a significant negative correlation with GHG emissions. Imports, advanced technical processes, a transition from non-green energy to green energy consumption, and energy efficiency are thus critical components in executing climate change legislation. These findings highlight the profound importance of green technology development and green energy for ecologically sustainable development in the South Asian countries and act as a crucial resource for other nations throughout the world when it comes to ecological security. This research recommends the consumption of environmentally friendly and energy-efficient technologies in order to mitigate climate change and the government's implementation of the most recent policies to neutralize GHG emissions in order to achieve sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid36180462, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, T and He, Y and DePauw, R and Jin, Z and Garvin, D and Yue, X and Anderson, W and Li, T and Dong, X and Zhang, T and Yang, X}, title = {Climate change may outpace current wheat breeding yield improvements in North America.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {5591}, pmid = {36180462}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; North America ; Plant Breeding ; Seasons ; *Triticum/genetics ; }, abstract = {Variety adaptation to future climate for wheat is important but lacks comprehensive understanding. Here, we evaluate genetic advancement under current and future climate using a dataset of wheat breeding nurseries in North America during 1960-2018. Results show that yields declined by 3.6% per 1 °C warming for advanced winter wheat breeding lines, compared with -5.5% for the check variety, indicating a superior climate-resilience. However, advanced spring wheat breeding lines showed a 7.5% yield reduction per 1 °C warming, which is more sensitive than a 7.1% reduction for the check variety, indicating climate resilience is not improved and may even decline for spring wheat. Under future climate of SSP scenarios, yields of winter and spring wheat exhibit declining trends even with advanced breeding lines, suggesting future climate warming could outpace the yield gains from current breeding progress. Our study highlights that the adaptation progress following the current wheat breeding strategies is challenging.}, }
@article {pmid36179344, year = {2022}, author = {Senay, E and Levine, R and Shepherd, JM and Rizzo, A and Yitshak-Sade, M and Carrión, D and Liu, B and Lewis, J and Wright, R and Sorensen, C and Wortzel, J and Pinsky, E and Hudson, K and Katz, C and Gore, K and Basu, G and Duritz, N and Wright, R and Sheffield, P}, title = {Mental Health and Well-Being for Patients and Clinicians: Proceedings of the Fourth Annual Clinical Climate Change Meeting, January 7, 2022.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {64}, number = {10}, pages = {e661-e666}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000002655}, pmid = {36179344}, issn = {1536-5948}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Disorders/epidemiology ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid36178761, year = {2022}, author = {Koch, A}, title = {Teach About Heat: Rising Temperature From Climate Change Is a Nursing Issue.}, journal = {Journal of continuing education in nursing}, volume = {53}, number = {10}, pages = {460-464}, doi = {10.3928/00220124-20220907-07}, pmid = {36178761}, issn = {1938-2472}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Promotion ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Public Health ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Deaths attributed to rising temperatures and heat waves represent a continuing public health concern. Climate change affects social determinants of health and local and global health inequities, especially those negatively impacted by high temperatures. Individuals with chronic health conditions have greater likelihood of mortality due to rising temperatures. Nurses witness the harmful effects of climate change but may not be aware that a patient's worsening symptoms can be due to heat. Nurses need to understand and then educate patients and communities about ways to reduce harm from heat, medication interactions with heat, and what safety measures to take in regions of high heat or during heat waves to best promote health equity and reduce mortality. [J Contin Educ Nurs. 2022;53(10):460-464.].}, }
@article {pmid36178198, year = {2023}, author = {Batista, BD and Singh, BK}, title = {Next generation tools for crop-microbiome manipulation to mitigate the impact of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {105-110}, doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.16231}, pmid = {36178198}, issn = {1462-2920}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Agriculture ; *Microbiota ; }, }
@article {pmid36177124, year = {2022}, author = {Jensen, EL and Leigh, DM}, title = {Using temporal genomics to understand contemporary climate change responses in wildlife.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {e9340}, pmid = {36177124}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Monitoring the evolutionary responses of species to ongoing global climate change is critical for informing conservation. Population genomic studies that use samples from multiple time points ("temporal genomics") are uniquely able to make direct observations of change over time. Consequently, only temporal studies can show genetic erosion or spatiotemporal changes in population structure. Temporal genomic studies directly examining climate change effects are currently rare but will likely increase in the coming years due to their high conservation value. Here, we highlight four key genetic indicators that can be monitored using temporal genomics to understand how species are responding to climate change. All indicators crucially rely on having a suitable baseline that accurately represents the past condition of the population, and we discuss aspects of study design that must be considered to achieve this.}, }
@article {pmid36177121, year = {2022}, author = {Wu, X and Wang, M and Li, X and Yan, Y and Dai, M and Xie, W and Zhou, X and Zhang, D and Wen, Y}, title = {Response of distribution patterns of two closely related species in Taxus genus to climate change since last inter-glacial.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {e9302}, pmid = {36177121}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change affects the species spatio-temporal distribution deeply. However, how climate affects the spatio-temporal distribution pattern of related species on the large scale remains largely unclear. Here, we selected two closely related species in Taxus genus Taxus chinensis and Taxus mairei to explore their distribution pattern. Four environmental variables were employed to simulate the distribution patterns using the optimized Maxent model. The results showed that the highly suitable area of T. chinensis and T. mairei in current period was 1.616 × 10[5] km[2] and 3.093 × 10[5] km[2], respectively. The distribution area of T. chinensis was smaller than that of T. mairei in different periods. Comparison of different periods shown that the distribution area of the two species was almost in stasis from LIG to the future periods. Temperature and precipitation were the main climate factors that determined the potential distribution of the two species. The centroids of T. chinensis and T. mairei were in Sichuan and Hunan provinces in current period, respectively. In the future, the centroid migration direction of the two species would shift towards northeast. Our results revealed that the average elevation distribution of T. chinensis was higher than that of T. mairei. This study sheds new insights into the habitat preference and limiting environment factors of the two related species and provides a valuable reference for the conservation of these two threatened species.}, }
@article {pmid36176231, year = {2023}, author = {Manlik, O and Mundra, S and Schmid-Hempel, R and Schmid-Hempel, P}, title = {Impact of climate change on parasite infection of an important pollinator depends on host genotypes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {69-80}, pmid = {36176231}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {31003A_116057//Akademie der Naturwissenschaften/ ; 268853//H2020 European Research Council/ ; G00003007//Startup Grant United Arab Emirates University/ ; }, mesh = {Bees/genetics ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Genotype ; Host-Parasite Interactions/genetics ; *Parasitic Diseases ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to affect host-parasite interactions, and for some hosts, parasite infection is expected to increase with rising temperatures. Global population declines of important pollinators already have been attributed to climate change and parasitism. However, the role of climate in driving parasite infection and the genetic basis for pollinator hosts to respond often remain obscure. Based on decade-long field data, we investigated the association between climate and Nosema bombi (Microsporidia) infection of buffed-tailed bumblebees (Bombus terrestris), and whether host genotypes play a role. For this, we genotyped 876 wild bumblebee queens and screened for N. bombi infection of those queens between 2000 and 2010. We recorded seven climate parameters during those 11 years and tested for correlations between climate and infection prevalence. Here we show that climatic factors drive N. bombi infection and that the impact of climate depends on mitochondrial DNA cytochrome oxidase I (COI) haplotypes of the host. Infection prevalence was correlated with climatic variables during the time when queens emerge from hibernation. Remarkably, COI haplotypes best predict this association between climatic factors and infection. In particular, two host haplotypes ("A" and "B") displayed phenotypic plasticity in response to climatic variation: Temperature was positively correlated with infection of host haplotype B, but not haplotype A. The likelihood of infection of haplotype A was associated with moisture, conferring greater resistance to parasite infection during wetter years. In contrast, infection of haplotype B was unrelated to moisture. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that identifies specific host genotypes that confer differential parasite resistance under variable climatic conditions. Our results underscore the importance of mitochondrial haplotypes to ward off parasites in a changing climate. More broadly, this also suggests that COI may play a pertinent role in climate change adaptations of insect pollinators.}, }
@article {pmid36176203, year = {2022}, author = {Burch, H and Beaton, LJ and Simpson, G and Watson, B and Maxwell, J and Winkel, KD}, title = {A planetary health-organ system map to integrate climate change and health content into medical curricula.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {217}, number = {9}, pages = {469-473}, pmid = {36176203}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Curriculum ; Government Programs ; }, }
@article {pmid36175962, year = {2022}, author = {Piovezan-Borges, AC and Valente-Neto, F and Urbieta, GL and Laurence, SGW and de Oliveira Roque, F}, title = {Global trends in research on the effects of climate change on Aedes aegypti: international collaboration has increased, but some critical countries lag behind.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {346}, pmid = {36175962}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {*Aedes/physiology ; Animals ; Australia/epidemiology ; Brazil/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Dengue/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Mosquito Vectors/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases (e.g., transmitted by Aedes aegypti) affect almost 700 million people each year and result in the deaths of more than 1 million people annually.<br><br>METHODS: We examined research undertaken during the period 1951-2020 on the effects of temperature and climate change on Ae. aegypti, and also considered research location and between-country collaborations.<br><br>RESULTS: The frequency of publications on the effects of climate change on Ae. aegypti increased over the period examined, and this topic received more attention than the effects of temperature alone on this species. The USA, UK, Australia, Brazil, and Argentina were the dominant research hubs, while other countries fell behind with respect to number of scientific publications and/or collaborations. The occurrence of Ae. aegypti and number of related dengue cases in the latter are very high, and climate change scenarios predict changes in the range expansion and/or occurrence of this species in these countries.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that some of the countries at risk of expanding Ae. aegypti populations have poor research networks that need to be strengthened. A number of mechanisms can be considered for the improvement of international collaboration, representativity and diversity, such as research networks, internationalization programs, and programs that enhance representativity. These types of collaboration are considered important to expand the relevant knowledge of these countries and for the development of management strategies in response to climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid36175068, year = {2022}, author = {Mitchell, EP}, title = {Disparities in Impact of Global Warming and Climate Change in the United States.}, journal = {Journal of the National Medical Association}, volume = {114}, number = {5}, pages = {465-466}, doi = {10.1016/j.jnma.2022.09.001}, pmid = {36175068}, issn = {1943-4693}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; United States/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid36175028, year = {2022}, author = {Hendriks, SL and Montgomery, H and Benton, T and Badiane, O and Castro de la Mata, G and Fanzo, J and Guinto, RR and Soussana, JF}, title = {Global environmental climate change, covid-19, and conflict threaten food security and nutrition.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {378}, number = {}, pages = {e071534}, pmid = {36175028}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*COVID-19/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Food Security ; Humans ; Nutritional Status ; }, abstract = {Sheryl L Hendriks and colleagues describe the global risks and vulnerabilities associated with health, food security, and nutrition}, }
@article {pmid36173841, year = {2022}, author = {Qi, D and Ouyang, Z and Chen, L and Wu, Y and Lei, R and Chen, B and Feely, RA and Anderson, LG and Zhong, W and Lin, H and Polukhin, A and Zhang, Y and Zhang, Y and Bi, H and Lin, X and Luo, Y and Zhuang, Y and He, J and Chen, J and Cai, WJ}, title = {Climate change drives rapid decadal acidification in the Arctic Ocean from 1994 to 2020.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {377}, number = {6614}, pages = {1544-1550}, doi = {10.1126/science.abo0383}, pmid = {36173841}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Calcium Carbonate ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; *Seawater/chemistry ; }, abstract = {The Arctic Ocean has experienced rapid warming and sea ice loss in recent decades, becoming the first open-ocean basin to experience widespread aragonite undersaturation [saturation state of aragonite (Ωarag) < 1]. However, its trend toward long-term ocean acidification and the underlying mechanisms remain undocumented. Here, we report rapid acidification there, with rates three to four times higher than in other ocean basins, and attribute it to changing sea ice coverage on a decadal time scale. Sea ice melt exposes seawater to the atmosphere and promotes rapid uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, lowering its alkalinity and buffer capacity and thus leading to sharp declines in pH and Ωarag. We predict a further decrease in pH, particularly at higher latitudes where sea ice retreat is active, whereas Arctic warming may counteract decreases in Ωarag in the future.}, }
@article {pmid36170754, year = {2022}, author = {Liu, H and Tong, M and Guo, F and Nie, Q and Li, J and Li, P and Zhu, T and Xue, T}, title = {Deaths attributable to anomalous temperature: A generalizable metric for the health impact of global warming.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {169}, number = {}, pages = {107520}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2022.107520}, pmid = {36170754}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Cities ; *Cold Temperature ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mortality ; Temperature ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The U-shaped association between health outcomes and ambient temperatures has been extensively investigated. However, such analyses cannot fully estimate the mortality burden of climate change because the features of the association (e.g., minimum mortality temperature) vary with human adaptation; thus, they are not generalizable to different locations. In this study, we assumed that humans could adapt to regular temperature variations; and thus examined the all-cause mortality attributable to temperature anomaly (TA), an indicator widely utilized in climate science to measure irregular temperature fluctuations, across 115 cities in the United States (US). We first used quasi-Poisson regressions to obtain the city-specific TA-mortality associations, then used meta-regression to pool these city-specific estimates. Finally, we calculated the number of TA-related deaths using the uniform pooled association, then compared it to the estimates from city-specific associations, which had been controlled for adaptation. Meta-regression showed a U-shaped TA-mortality association, centered at a TA near 0. According to the pooled association, 0.579 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.465-0.681 %), 0.394 % (95 % CI: 0.332-0.451 %), and 0.185 % (95 % CI: 0.107-0.254 %) of all-cause deaths were attributable to all anomalous temperatures (TA ≠ 0), anomalous heat (TA > 0), and anomalous cold (TA < 0), respectively. At the city level, heat-related deaths estimated from the pooled association were in good agreement with heat-related deaths estimated from the city-specific associations (R[2] = 0.84). However, the cold-related deaths estimated from the two methods showed a weaker correlation (R[2] = 0.07). Our findings suggest that TA constitutes a generalizable indicator that can uniformly evaluate deaths attributable to anomalous heat in distinct geographical locations.}, }
@article {pmid36170172, year = {2023}, author = {Glavinovic, K and Eggleton, K and Davis, R and Gosman, K and Macmillan, A}, title = {Understanding and experience of climate change in rural general practice in Aotearoa-New Zealand.}, journal = {Family practice}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {442-448}, pmid = {36170172}, issn = {1460-2229}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; New Zealand ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Rural Population ; *General Practice ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is already affecting Aotearoa New Zealand (Aotearoa-NZ). The public health effects are varied and complex, and rural primary care staff will be at the front line of effects and responses. However, little is known about their understanding and experience.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To determine understanding, experiences and preparedness of rural general practice staff in Aotearoa-NZ about climate change and health equity.<br><br>METHODS: A mixed-methods national cross-sectional survey of rural general practice staff was undertaken that included Likert-style and free-text responses. Quantitative data were analysed with simple descriptive analysis and qualitative data were thematically analysed using a deductive framework based on Te Whare Tapa Wh&#x101;.<br><br>RESULTS: A proportion of survey respondents remained unsure about climate science and health links, although many others already reported a range of negative climate change health impacts on their communities, and expected these to worsen. Twenty to thirty percent of respondents lacked confidence in their health service's capability to provide support following extreme weather. Themes included acknowledgement that the health effects of climate change are highly varied and complex, that the health risks for rural communities combine climate change and wider environmental degradation and that climate change will exacerbate existing health inequities.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study adds to sparse information on climate change effects on health in rural primary care. We suggest that tailored professional education on climate change science and rural health equity is still needed, while urgent resourcing and training for interagency disaster response within rural and remote communities is needed.}, }
@article {pmid36170162, year = {2023}, author = {Brooks, SK and Greenberg, N}, title = {Climate change effects on mental health: are there workplace implications?.}, journal = {Occupational medicine (Oxford, England)}, volume = {73}, number = {3}, pages = {133-137}, pmid = {36170162}, issn = {1471-8405}, support = {//National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit/ ; //UK Health Security Agency/ ; //King's College London/ ; NIHR200890//University of East Anglia/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; Workplace/psychology ; Personnel Turnover ; Social Support ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change can negatively affect mental health, and poor mental health can negatively affect work. However, less is known about the relationship between mental health and workplace behaviours within the climate change context.<br><br>AIMS: To explore existing literature relating to climate-induced mental ill-health as a potential predictor of workplace behaviours.<br><br>METHODS: Scoping review, searching five databases for relevant literature using two separate search strategies.<br><br>RESULTS: Only five studies with any relevant data were found. Results could not be easily synthesized because each of the five considered different work-related outcomes. However, the available data suggest that the psychological impact of extreme events could lead to increased job tension, higher turnover intentions and workplace hostility. Stress about extreme weather could also impede the ability to make essential work-related decisions and, for those who work in the environmental sector, concerns about climate could lead to overcommitment to work. There was some evidence that social support might lessen the effects of climate-induced stress on work outcomes.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Very little literature considers the impacts of climate change on employees' mental health and associated workplace function. The available evidence suggests there are potential negative impacts which may be mitigated by social support. It is important for future research to explore ways of supporting staff and fostering resilience.}, }
@article {pmid36169827, year = {2023}, author = {Cutcu, I and Keser, A and Eren, MV}, title = {Causation between energy consumption and climate change in the countries with the highest global climate risk.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {15585-15598}, pmid = {36169827}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Economic Development ; *Climate Change ; Fossil Fuels ; Causality ; Philippines ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {The study aims to examine if there is causation between "energy consumption" and "climate change" through the data of ten countries with the highest Climate Risk Index (CRI) scores. The ten highest CRI score countries include Puerto Rico, Myanmar, Haiti, Philippines, Mozambique, The Bahamas, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Thailand, and Nepal. The annual data for the years 2005-2019 was used because of the data constraints. CRI is selected as the dependent variable. As for the independent variables, the ratios of the energy consumption of the key sectors indicated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to the total energy consumption are chosen. These key sectors in energy consumption are industry (IND), transportation (TRA), trade and public services (TPS), and housing (HOU). Economic growth (EG), which is one of the main factors affecting climate change in the literature, is included in the model as the control variable. According to the results of the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test, there is one-way causality from transportation towards CRI, but not any causality between others. It is evaluated that since the transportation sector is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, it has a strong effect on the amount of CO2 emissions and a significant determining role on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36167683, year = {2022}, author = {Sergio, F and Tavecchia, G and Blas, J and Tanferna, A and Hiraldo, F and Korpimaki, E and Beissinger, SR}, title = {Hardship at birth alters the impact of climate change on a long-lived predator.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {5517}, pmid = {36167683}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme events, such as droughts or hurricanes, with substantial impacts on human and wildlife communities. Extreme events can affect individuals through two pathways: by altering the fitness of adults encountering a current extreme, and by affecting the development of individuals born during a natal extreme, a largely overlooked process. Here, we show that the impact of natal drought on an avian predator overrode the effect of current drought for decades, so that individuals born during drought were disadvantaged throughout life. Incorporation of natal effects caused a 40% decline in forecasted population size and a 21% shortening of time to extinction. These results imply that climate change may erode populations more quickly and severely than currently appreciated, suggesting the urgency to incorporate "penalties" for natal legacies in the analytical toolkit of impact forecasts. Similar double impacts may apply to other drivers of global change.}, }
@article {pmid36167167, year = {2022}, author = {Aryal, B and Gurung, R and Camargo, AF and Fongaro, G and Treichel, H and Mainali, B and Angove, MJ and Ngo, HH and Guo, W and Puadel, SR}, title = {Nitrous oxide emission in altered nitrogen cycle and implications for climate change.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {314}, number = {}, pages = {120272}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2022.120272}, pmid = {36167167}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Humans ; *Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Fertilizers ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Carbon Dioxide ; Nitrogen Cycle ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Reactive Nitrogen Species ; Fossil Fuels ; Water ; Soil ; Nitrification ; }, abstract = {Natural processes and human activities play a crucial role in changing the nitrogen cycle and increasing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, which are accelerating at an unprecedented rate. N2O has serious global warming potential (GWP), about 310 times higher than that of carbon dioxide. The food production, transportation, and energy required to sustain a world population of seven billion have required dramatic increases in the consumption of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers and fossil fuels, leading to increased N2O in air and water. These changes have radically disturbed the nitrogen cycle and reactive nitrogen species, such as nitrous oxide (N2O), and have impacted the climatic system. Yet, systematic and comprehensive studies on various underlying processes and parameters in the altered nitrogen cycle, and their implications for the climatic system are still lacking. This paper reviews how the nitrogen cycle has been disturbed and altered by anthropogenic activities, with a central focus on potential pathways of N2O generation. The authors also estimate the N2O-N emission mainly due to anthropogenic activities will be around 8.316 Tg N2O-N yr[-1] in 2050. In order to minimize and tackle the N2O emissions and its consequences on the global ecosystem and climate change, holistic mitigation strategies and diverse adaptations, policy reforms, and public awareness are suggested as vital considerations. This study concludes that rapidly increasing anthropogenic perturbations, the identification of new microbial communities, and their role in mediating biogeochemical processes now shape the modern nitrogen cycle.}, }
@article {pmid36165759, year = {2022}, author = {Sisodia, R and Jobbins, G}, title = {Climate change and psychosocial resilience in drylands: the need for more evidence.}, journal = {International review of psychiatry (Abingdon, England)}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {520-524}, doi = {10.1080/09540261.2022.2118520}, pmid = {36165759}, issn = {1369-1627}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Poverty ; Public Policy ; *Resilience, Psychological ; }, abstract = {There is increasing recognition of the mental health and psychosocial impacts of climate change. Relatively less attention is paid to the psychosocial dimensions of climate resilience, how interplays between psychological and social factors shape the behaviour of people and groups faced with climate shocks and stresses. In drylands of the Global South, farming and pastoralist communities in drylands are exposed to multiple sources of psychosocial stress, including climate change, conflict, political marginalisation, and rapid social and economic transformation. We argue that public policy, projects, and programmes intended to reduce poverty and strengthen climate resilience in these contexts should be aware of their potential to undermine psychosocial climate resilience. However, at present, the evidence base is not sufficient to inform policy or project and programme design; there is an urgent need for more high-quality transdisciplinary research on these topics.}, }
@article {pmid36165756, year = {2022}, author = {Lawrance, EL and Thompson, R and Newberry Le Vay, J and Page, L and Jennings, N}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing: A Narrative Review of Current Evidence, and its Implications.}, journal = {International review of psychiatry (Abingdon, England)}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {443-498}, doi = {10.1080/09540261.2022.2128725}, pmid = {36165756}, issn = {1369-1627}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Emotions ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Converging global evidence highlights the dire consequences of climate change for human mental health and wellbeing. This paper summarises literature across relevant disciplines to provide a comprehensive narrative review of the multiple pathways through which climate change interacts with mental health and wellbeing. Climate change acts as a risk amplifier by disrupting the conditions known to support good mental health, including socioeconomic, cultural and environmental conditions, and living and working conditions. The disruptive influence of rising global temperatures and extreme weather events, such as experiencing a heatwave or water insecurity, compounds existing stressors experienced by individuals and communities. This has deleterious effects on people's mental health and is particularly acute for those groups already disadvantaged within and across countries. Awareness and experiences of escalating climate threats and climate inaction can generate understandable psychological distress; though strong emotional responses can also motivate climate action. We highlight opportunities to support individuals and communities to cope with and act on climate change. Consideration of the multiple and interconnected pathways of climate impacts and their influence on mental health determinants must inform evidence-based interventions. Appropriate action that centres climate justice can reduce the current and future mental health burden, while simultaneously improving the conditions that nurture wellbeing and equality. The presented evidence adds further weight to the need for decisive climate action by decision makers across all scales.}, }
@article {pmid36165754, year = {2022}, author = {Arman, N and Salam Shaoli, S and Hossain, S}, title = {Mental health and climate change in Bangladesh.}, journal = {International review of psychiatry (Abingdon, England)}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {513-515}, doi = {10.1080/09540261.2022.2093100}, pmid = {36165754}, issn = {1369-1627}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Risk ; }, abstract = {Climate change adversely impacts the health and well-being of billions of people worldwide and will increasingly do so over the next few decades. Although all populations are at risk, some are more vulnerable than others. It is therefore critical to increase resilience to climate-related risks and build the capacity of national health systems by considering climate risks in health policy and decision making, strengthening leadership and governance to address impacts, and implementing strategies to build climate-resilient health care systems.}, }
@article {pmid36165753, year = {2022}, author = {Byron, J and Hossain, SW}, title = {Climate change in Bangladesh: meeting the mental health needs in times of crisis.}, journal = {International review of psychiatry (Abingdon, England)}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {534-536}, doi = {10.1080/09540261.2022.2129227}, pmid = {36165753}, issn = {1369-1627}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Mental Health ; *Psychological Trauma ; }, abstract = {Access to quality and affordable mental health care is not always available to disaster-prone countries experiencing climate change, which may result in psychological trauma. Although environmental support has been provided, the consequences of disasters have not been addressed within the mental health realm. Inadequate knowledge and practice about crisis responses for mental health was addressed in Bangladesh with the influx of Rohingya people escaping persecution. To provide mental health support, Crisis Preparedness for Mental Health (CPM-MH) was developed and implemented addressing the psychological consequences of traumatic events. CP M-MH has its foundation in post-trauma stabilization through establishment of psychological equilibrium providing proactive rather than reactive methods linked to positive mental health outcomes. With adoption of CPM-MH in Bangladesh addressing mental health needs after traumatic events, mental health damage experienced by manmade and natural disasters may be considered the best strategy to build coping skills and resiliency for further traumatic event.}, }
@article {pmid36165751, year = {2022}, author = {Dos Santos, M}, title = {Climate change and mental health within the African context.}, journal = {International review of psychiatry (Abingdon, England)}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {510-512}, doi = {10.1080/09540261.2022.2093626}, pmid = {36165751}, issn = {1369-1627}, mesh = {Africa ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Disorders/epidemiology/therapy ; Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Africa is ecologically sensitive, with vulnerable communities which are at particular risk of the associations and impacts of climate change. Serious climatic events can result in traumatic stress, developing into chronic psychopathological and psychiatric patterns. Nonetheless, there remains a lack of psychiatric studies on mental disorders associated with climate change within the African context. There is a need in Africa for robust complex adaptive integrated research concerning climate change impacts and associations on and with mental health and healthcare systems, policy and practice, so that relevant interventions may be implemented and strengthened.}, }
@article {pmid36165632, year = {2023}, author = {Rothschild, J and Haase, E}, title = {The mental health of women and climate change: Direct neuropsychiatric impacts and associated psychological concerns.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {405-413}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.14479}, pmid = {36165632}, issn = {1879-3479}, mesh = {Child ; Infant, Newborn ; Female ; Humans ; Mental Health ; Climate Change ; *Premature Birth ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Anxiety/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change brings exposures to heat, air pollution, poorer quality food, and infectious disease that have significant direct effects on women and their mental health. These environmental impacts are multifaceted in their consequences and raise risks of depression, suicide, violent victimization, post-traumatic stress disorder, and various other neuropsychiatric symptoms. Women also suffer increased climate psychological risks from higher rates of stillbirth, preterm birth, and developmental problems in their children. Here we review what is known about the overlap of women's individual mental health and climate change, and highlight areas where more research is needed.}, }
@article {pmid36164332, year = {2022}, author = {Jacobsen, AP and Khiew, YC and Duffy, E and O'Connell, J and Brown, E and Auwaerter, PG and Blumenthal, RS and Schwartz, BS and McEvoy, JW}, title = {Climate change and the prevention of cardiovascular disease.}, journal = {American journal of preventive cardiology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {100391}, pmid = {36164332}, issn = {2666-6677}, abstract = {Climate change is a worsening global crisis that will continue negatively impacting population health and well-being unless adaptation and mitigation interventions are rapidly implemented. Climate change-related cardiovascular disease is mediated by air pollution, increased ambient temperatures, vector-borne disease and mental health disorders. Climate change-related cardiovascular disease can be modulated by climate change adaptation; however, this process could result in significant health inequity because persons and populations of lower socioeconomic status have fewer adaptation options. Clear scientific evidence for climate change and its impact on human health have not yet resulted in the national and international impetus and policies necessary to slow climate change. As respected members of society who regularly communicate scientific evidence to patients, clinicians are well-positioned to advocate on the importance of addressing climate change. This narrative review summarizes the links between climate change and cardiovascular health, proposes actionable items clinicians and other healthcare providers can execute both in their personal life and as an advocate of climate policies, and encourages communication of the health impacts of climate change when counseling patients. Our aim is to inspire the reader to invest more time in communicating the most crucial public health issue of the 21st century to their patients.}, }
@article {pmid36163555, year = {2022}, author = {Datta, P and Behera, B}, title = {Factors Influencing the Feasibility, Effectiveness, and Sustainability of Farmers' Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in The Indian Eastern Himalayan Foothills.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {70}, number = {6}, pages = {911-925}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-022-01724-6}, pmid = {36163555}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Humans ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Farms ; Feasibility Studies ; India ; }, abstract = {The rapidly changing climatic conditions are adversely impacting the Indian agricultural sector. Farmers are frequently seen adopting several adaptation measures, which are neither equally efficient nor mutually exclusive. Based on the primary data collected from 300 farming households of the Indian Eastern Himalayan foothills, the present study attempts to examine the efficiency of local farmers' adaptation by developing indices combining the feasibility, effectiveness, and sustainability of the adaptation measures with the scale of actual adoption. Further, by employing multiple linear regression, the study analyzes the internal (psychological) and external (physical and socio-economic) factors influencing higher scores of these indices. Results show that local farmers are well aware of climate change and are responding through implementing at least one and up to seven adaptation measures. Farmers preferred agroforestry, a shift from cereals to low water-intensive commercials, irrigation, and intensification of winter crops as the most efficient. There was, however, a misalignment between the perceived efficiency of adaptation measures and their scale of adoption. Farmers' perceptions of pest infestation, satisfaction with farming, soil characteristics, farm size, remittances, and access to credit were found to be positively and significantly influencing the adaptation indices, while open-mindedness toward changing farming practices and crop-raiding by elephants were found to be negatively and significantly associated with adaptation indices. Lastly, the study made relevant recommendations for improving farmers' efficiency in adopting appropriate adaptation measures and strengthening the "State Action Plan on Climate Change".}, }
@article {pmid36161560, year = {2023}, author = {Rej, S and Bandyopadhyay, A and Das, N and Hossain, ME and Islam, MS and Bera, P and Yeediballi, T}, title = {The asymmetric influence of environmental-related technological innovation on climate change mitigation: what role do FDI and renewable energy play?.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {14916-14931}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-022-23182-7}, pmid = {36161560}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Inventions ; *Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Environmental Pollution ; Economic Development ; Investments ; Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {This study aims to provide a new perspective on environmental studies by examining the influence of environmental-related technological innovation, foreign direct investment, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on the climate change index (CCI), a novel proxy for environmental quality indicators. From the econometric standpoint, this study employs the "non-linear autoregressive distributed lag" model and spectral causality over the period of 1999-2018 for India. The results show that positive shocks to economic growth have detrimental long- and short-term effects on environmental quality, whereas negative shocks have no effect. While a positive shock has an insignificant impact, a negative shock to environmental technology innovation has a long-term negative impact on environmental quality. This study provides evidence for the pollution halo hypothesis in India. Besides, a long-term negative shock to the usage of renewable energy fosters environmental degradation. Furthermore, in short-, medium-, and long-term frequency, spectral causality demonstrates unidirectional causation from CCI to environmental-related technological innovation. Bidirectional causation is demonstrated between the CCI and renewable energy consumption in the short and medium term. In addition, environmental-related technological innovation and foreign direct investment are demonstrating a bidirectional relationship in the short term. This study has advocated the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)-centric policy paradigm, which can assist the Indian government in achieving SDG-13 (mitigating climate change) and SDG-7 (clean energy consumption).}, }
@article {pmid36160510, year = {2022}, author = {Bellehumeur, CR and Bilodeau, C and Kam, C}, title = {Integrating positive psychology and spirituality in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {970362}, pmid = {36160510}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {In the context of climate change and its accompanying impact on stress and mental health, we argue that positive psychology (PP) may benefit from an integration of spirituality to better support people's wellbeing. Starting with an overview of climate change's impact on wellbeing and health, we explore the paradoxical and complex relationship between humans and nature. Following which, we will briefly define spirituality and present an evocative metaphor of the wave to portray the evolution of the field of PP. In our conclusive remarks, we argue that the field of PP has gradually become more open to integrate spirituality (since the first wave), as it evolves towards greater complexity (in its third wave). In addition to meaning, some spiritual perspectives potentially relevant to positive psychology facilitate an ecocentric view (i.e., eco-spiritualities) which allow for a better understanding of the paradoxical human-nature relationship, as we struggle to deal with the complex issues related to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36160121, year = {2022}, author = {Clark, S and Hubbard, KA and McGillicuddy, DJ and Ralston, DK and Alexander, MA and Curchitser, E and Stock, C}, title = {Projected effects of climate change on Pseudo-nitzschia bloom dynamics in the Gulf of Maine.}, journal = {Journal of marine systems : journal of the European Association of Marine Sciences and Techniques}, volume = {230}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {36160121}, issn = {0924-7963}, support = {P01 ES028938/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Worldwide, warming ocean temperatures have contributed to extreme harmful algal bloom events and shifts in phytoplankton species composition. In 2016 in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), an unprecedented Pseudo-nitzschia bloom led to the first domoic-acid induced shellfishery closures in the region. Potential links between climate change, warming temperatures, and the GOM Pseudo-nitzschia assemblage, however, remain unexplored. In this study, a global climate change projection previously downscaled to 7-km resolution for the Northwest Atlantic was further refined with a 1-3-km resolution simulation of the GOM to investigate the effects of climate change on HAB dynamics. A 25-year time slice of projected conditions at the end of the 21[st] century (2073-2097) was compared to a 25-year hindcast of contemporary ocean conditions (1994-2018) and analyzed for changes to GOM inflows, transport, and Pseudo-nitzschia australis growth potential. On average, climate change is predicted to lead to increased temperatures, decreased salinity, and increased stratification in the GOM, with the largest changes occurring in the late summer. Inflows from the Scotian Shelf are projected to increase, and alongshore transport in the Eastern Maine Coastal Current is projected to intensify. Increasing ocean temperatures will likely make P. australis growth conditions less favorable in the southern and western GOM but improve P. australis growth conditions in the eastern GOM, including a later growing season in the fall, and a longer growing season in the spring. Combined, these changes suggest that P. australis blooms in the eastern GOM could intensify in the 21[st] century, and that the overall Pseudo-nitzschia species assemblage might shift to warmer-adapted species such as P. plurisecta or other Pseudo-nitzschia species that may be introduced.}, }
@article {pmid36155731, year = {2022}, author = {Mazzalai, E and Chiappetta, M and La Torre, G}, title = {Knowledge on causes and consequences of Climate Change in a cohort of Italian students.}, journal = {La Clinica terapeutica}, volume = {173}, number = {5}, pages = {443-452}, doi = {10.7417/CT.2022.2461}, pmid = {36155731}, issn = {1972-6007}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cohort Studies ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Humans ; Ice ; *Students, Medical ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change (CC) is the greatest threat to the health of the planet. The scientific community has established its connection to human activities and its role in emerging and premature diseases. Our study helps to understand how students of various backgrounds and academic fields retrieve information on CC and highlights the knowledge on the main causes and consequences of global warming and on the role of healthcare workers in the fight towards this threat.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed through an online questionnaire administered to university students between January and December 2020. Univariable analyses were performed, Chi-square was calculated and multivariable analysis was used to investigate the relationship between the answers and socio-demographic variables. Statistical significance was set at a p-value of less than 5%.<br><br>RESULTS: More than 80% of the sample correctly identifies as major consequences of CCs the increase in Earth's temperature (95.0%), melting of ice caps (89.4%), rising sea levels (81.8%), and the more frequent occurrence of climate-related natural disasters. Across courses of study, the frequency on how CC is addressed differs (p<0.001): 31.5% of the students from the medical field reported the topic to be taught in class, compared to 49.0% from humanities and 63.4% from science and technology.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The study shows that medical students are less prepared and less aware of the consequences and causes of CC than students in other faculties. Since CC will play a role in every aspect of patients' lives, barriers to health care will have to be overcome through the knowledge and skills acquired during undergraduate courses.}, }
@article {pmid36151254, year = {2022}, author = {Hou, Q and Ji, Z and Yang, H and Yu, X}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human activities on different degraded grassland based on NDVI.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {15918}, pmid = {36151254}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Grassland ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Grassland degradation has emerged as a serious socio-economic and ecological problem, endangering both long-term usage and the regional biogeochemical cycle. Climate change and human activities are the two leading factors leading to grassland degradation. However, it is unclear what the degradation level caused by these two factors is. Using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and coefficient of variation of NDVI (CVNDVI), the spatial distribution features of grassland degradation or restoration were analyzed in Qilian County in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The dominant climate variables affecting NDVI variation were selected through the combination of random forest model and stepwise regression method to improve the residual trend analysis, and on this basis, twelve possible scenarios were established to evaluate the driving factors of different degraded grasslands. Finally, used the Hurst index to forecast the trend of grassland degradation or restoration. The results showed that approximately 55.0% of the grassland had been degraded between 2000 and 2019, and the area of slight degradation (NDVIslope > 0; CVNDVI (slope) > 0; NDVIvalue > 0.2) accounted for 48.6%. These regions were centered in the northwest of Qilian County. Climate and human activities had a joint impact on grassland restoration or degradation. Human activities played a leading role in grassland restoration, while climate change was primarily a driver of grassland degradation. The regions with slight degradation or re-growing (NDVIslope > 0; CVNDVI (slope) > 0), moderate degradation (NDVIslope < 0; CVNDVI (slope) > 0), and severe degradation or desertification (NDVIslope < 0; CVNDVI (slope) < 0) were dominated by the joint effects of climate and anthropogenic activity accounted for 34.3%, 3.3%, and 1.3%, respectively, of the total grassland area. Grasslands in most areas of Qilian County are forecasted to continue to degrade, including the previously degraded areas, with continuous degradation areas accounting for 54.78%. Accurately identifying the driving factors of different degraded grassland and predicting the dynamic change trend of grassland in the future is the key to understand the mechanism of grassland degradation and prevent grassland degradation. The findings offer a reference for accurately identifying the driving forces in grassland degradation, as well as providing a scientific basis for the policy-making of grassland ecological management.}, }
@article {pmid36150855, year = {2022}, author = {Quinn Griffin, MT and Alfes, CM and Chavez, F and Ea, EE and Lynn, KA and Rafferty, MA and Fitzpatrick, JJ}, title = {Incorporating climate change into Doctor of Nursing Practice curricula.}, journal = {Journal of professional nursing : official journal of the American Association of Colleges of Nursing}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {156-161}, doi = {10.1016/j.profnurs.2022.06.008}, pmid = {36150855}, issn = {1532-8481}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Curriculum ; *Education, Nursing, Graduate ; Humans ; *Nurses ; Quality of Life ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global crisis with major impacts on planetary health and quality of life. Nurses are well positioned to recognize the major health consequences of climate change on health. Therefore, highlighting nurses' active engagement in mitigating climate change impact and resilience efforts is essential. However, there is little evidence of climate change content in nursing curricula. Climate change/planetary health content could be integrated into existing Doctor of Nursing Practice programs so that graduates, as influential leaders, are equipped to meet the challenges ahead. The domains, competencies and sub-competencies outlined in the Essentials: Core competencies for professional nursing education (American Association of Colleges of Nursing (AACN), 2021) are proposed as a curricular scaffold to integrate climate change content in DNP curricula. Climate change content matched to the AACN domains and competencies could be included in many existing DNP courses. Climate change would become a consistent concept throughout all DNP curricular programs rather than a specified course addressing climate change. The curricular structure presented would provide a foundation for enhancing DNP students' knowledge, attitudes and skills related to climate change. These students and future graduates would be well prepared to introduce changes in practices and policies at the local, national, and global levels.}, }
@article {pmid36149577, year = {2022}, author = {Wortzel, JR and Lee, J and Benoit, L and Rubano, A and Pinsky, EG}, title = {Perspectives on Climate Change and Pediatric Mental Health: a Qualitative Analysis of Interviews with Researchers in the Field.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {562-568}, pmid = {36149577}, issn = {1545-7230}, support = {R25 MH125769/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Anxiety ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Mentors ; Research Personnel ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: There is a growing appreciation that climate change is affecting pediatric mental health, yet research in this field is in its infancy. The authors aimed to interview researchers in this space to identify themes that can help shape curricula and inform mentors guiding trainees entering this research area.<br><br>METHOD: A literature review was completed within PubMed, PsycINFO, and EMBASE for articles written in English and indexed between January 1, 2016, and August 1, 2021. The first and last authors of relevant articles were invited to be interviewed and to recommend other experts, from which 20 of 74 (27%) eligible participants were recruited. Standardized interviews were conducted virtually, transcribed, and qualitatively analyzed.<br><br>RESULTS: Participant responses clustered into two domains, each comprising three themes: (1) current and future research: epidemiology and education, interventions, and gaps in research; and (2) barriers: limited funding, psychological resistance, and logistical impediments. Research has been primarily limited to the phenomenology of eco-anxiety, the aftermath of natural disasters, and psychoeducational interventions. Participants provided insights into how the field can become more interventional, overcome psychological resistance among colleagues through education, and improve funding through calls for grants specific to this topic.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study outlines perspectives on the cutting-edge directions of research in climate mental health for children and impediments to its progress. Generalizability is limited by the small sample of experts interviewed; however, these content experts' opinions can inform curriculum development and help mentors support mentees hoping to develop research careers in climate mental health.}, }
@article {pmid36148215, year = {2022}, author = {Berio Fortini, L and Kaiser, LR and Xue, L and Wang, Y}, title = {Bioclimatic variables dataset for baseline and future climate scenarios for climate change studies in Hawai'i.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {45}, number = {}, pages = {108572}, pmid = {36148215}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Gridded bioclimatic variables representing yearly, seasonal, and monthly means and extremes in temperature and precipitation have been widely used for ecological modeling purposes and in broader climate change impact and biogeographical studies. As a result of their utility, numerous sets of bioclimatic variables have been developed on a global scale (e.g., WorldClim) but rarely represent the finer regional scale pattern of climate in Hawai'i. Recognizing the value of having such regionally downscaled products, we integrated more detailed projections from recent climate models developed for Hawai'i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (Tmin, Tmean, Tmax) and mean precipitation (Pmean) data at 250 m resolution. We used the most up-to-date dynamically downscaled projections based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We summarized the monthly data from these two climate projections into a suite of 19 standard bioclimatic variables that provide detailed information about annual and seasonal mean climatic conditions for the Hawaiian Islands. These bioclimatic variables are available for three climate scenarios: baseline climate (1990-2009) and future climate (2080-2099) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (IPRC projections only) and RCP 8.5 (both IPRC and NCAR projections) climate scenarios. The resulting dataset provides a more robust set of climate products that can be used for modeling purposes, impact studies, and management planning.}, }
@article {pmid36141574, year = {2022}, author = {Wu, M and Long, R and Yang, S and Wang, X and Chen, H}, title = {Evolution of the Knowledge Mapping of Climate Change Communication Research: Basic Status, Research Hotspots, and Prospects.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {36141574}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Interdisciplinary Communication ; Publications ; }, abstract = {Climate change communication is a crucial strategy for addressing the major challenges of climate change, and the knowledge mapping analysis and overview of it helps to clarify research progress. Based on CiteSpace, 428 pieces of domestic and foreign literature are collected to clarify the basic status of climate change communication research and summarize research hotspots and prospects. The study found that: (1) The earliest traceable English literature on climate change communication appeared in 2000. The number of articles published has risen steadily since 2008, reaching its first peak in 2015. (2) In contrast, research into Chinese climate change communication began late and progressed slowly. The Chinese literature on climate change communication first appeared in 2009. Although domestic research generally continues to pay attention to this phenomenon, there is still room for development compared with international research. (3) The research hotspots for climate change communication are obtained through keyword co-occurrence analysis. Public perceptions of climate change are strongly influenced by political ideology. Since climate change has political attributes, people from different political parties or groups form their views on climate change through identity protection. (4) The research content on climate change communication can be summarized into the following six aspects: the development of climate change communication research; differences in public perceptions of climate change; factors influencing climate change communication; key elements of the climate change communication process; the important role of the media in climate change communication; and effective strategies for climate change communication. Finally, the shortcomings of this study are summarized and future research prospects on climate change communication are put forward from the perspectives of research methods, research contexts, and research paradigms.}, }
@article {pmid36141530, year = {2022}, author = {Ma, J and Zhou, W and Guo, S and Deng, X and Song, J and Xu, D}, title = {Effects of Conformity Tendencies on Farmers' Willingness to Take Measures to Respond to Climate Change: Evidence from Sichuan Province, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {36141530}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Policy ; *Farmers ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Encouraging farmers to respond to climate change is very important for agricultural production and environmental governance. Based on the data of 540 farmers in Sichuan Province, China, the effects of conformity tendencies on farmers' adaptive behavior decisions to climate change were analyzed using the binary logistic model and propensity score matching method (PSM). The results show that (1) relatives' and friends' adaptive behaviors to climate change positively affect farmers' adaptive behaviors to climate change. (2) Compared with relatives and friends who do not visit each other during the New Year (weak ties), the climate change adaptation behavior of relatives and friends who visit each other during the New Year (strong ties) has a more significant impact on the climate change adaptation behavior of farmers. (3) Farmers with higher education levels and agricultural products without disaster experience are more significantly affected by peer effects and more inclined to take measures to respond to climate change. (4) Social networks and social trust play a partially mediating role in the peer effects of farmers' adaptation to climate change, but there are differences between relatives and friends with different strong and weak ties.}, }
@article {pmid36141202, year = {2022}, author = {Woodcock, LV}, title = {Global Warming by Geothermal Heat from Fracking: Energy Industry's Enthalpy Footprints.}, journal = {Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {24}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {36141202}, issn = {1099-4300}, abstract = {Hypothetical dry adiabatic lapse rate (DALR) air expansion processes in atmosphere climate models that predict global warming cannot be the causal explanation of the experimentally observed mean lapse rate (approx.−6.5 K/km) in the troposphere. The DALR hypothesis violates the 2nd law of thermodynamics. A corollary of the heat balance revision of climate model predictions is that increasing the atmospheric concentration of a weak molecular transducer, CO2, could only have a net cooling effect, if any, on the biosphere interface temperatures between the lithosphere and atmosphere. The greenhouse-gas hypothesis, moreover, does not withstand scientific scrutiny against the experimental data. The global map of temperature difference contours is heterogeneous with various hotspots localized within specific land areas. There are regional patches of significant increases in time-average temperature differences, (∆<T>) = 3 K+, in a ring around the arctic circle, with similar hotspots in Brazil, South Africa and Madagascar, a 2−3 K band across central Australia, SE Europe centred in Poland, southern China and the Philippines. These global-warming map hotspots coincide with the locations of the most intensive fracking operational regions of the shale gas industry. Regional global warming is caused by an increase in geothermal conductivity following hydraulic fracture operations. The mean lapse rate (d<T>/dz)z at the surface of the lithosphere will decrease slightly in the regions where these operations have enhanced heat transfer. Geothermal heat from induced seismic activity has caused an irreversible increase in enthalpy (H) input into the overall energy balance at these locations. Investigating global warming further, we report the energy industry’s enthalpy outputs from the heat generated by all fuel consumption. We also calculate a global electricity usage enthalpy output. The global warming index, <∆T-biosphere> since 1950, presently +0.875 K, first became non-zero in the early 1970’s around the same time as natural gas usage began and has increased linearly by 0.0175 K/year ever since. Le Chatelier’s principle, applied to the dissipation processes of the biosphere’s ΔH-contours and [CO2] concentrations, helps to explain the global warming statistics.}, }
@article {pmid36138759, year = {2022}, author = {Agboka, KM and Tonnang, HEZ and Abdel-Rahman, EM and Odindi, J and Mutanga, O and Mohamed, SA}, title = {A Fuzzy-Based Model to Predict the Spatio-Temporal Performance of the Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris Natural Enemy against Tuta absoluta under Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {36138759}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {The South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta, causes up to 100% tomato crop losses. As Tuta absoluta is non-native to African agroecologies and lacks efficient resident natural enemies, the microgastrine koinobiont solitary oligophagous larval endoparasitoid, Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris (Marsh) (Syn.: Apanteles gelechiidivoris Marsh) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) was released for classical biological control. This study elucidates the current and future spatio-temporal performance of D. gelechiidivoris against T. absoluta in tomato cropping systems using a fuzzy logic modelling approach. Specifically, the study considers the presence of the host and the host crop, as well as the parasitoid reproductive capacity, as key variables. Results show that the fuzzy algorithm predicted the performance of the parasitoid (in terms of net reproductive rate (R0)), with a low root mean square error (RMSE) value (<0.90) and a considerably high R2 coefficient (=0.98), accurately predicting the parasitoid performance over time and space. Under the current climatic scenario, the parasitoid is predicted to perform well in all regions throughout the year, except for the coastal region. Under the future climatic scenario, the performance of the parasitoid is projected to improve in all regions throughout the year. Overall, the model sheds light on the varying performance of the parasitoid across different regions of Kenya, and in different seasons, under both current and future climatic scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid36138744, year = {2022}, author = {Zhao, Y and Xiao, D and Bai, H and Liu, L and Tang, J and Qi, Y and Shen, Y}, title = {Climate Change Impact on Yield and Water Use of Rice-Wheat Rotation System in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {36138744}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {D2022205010//Hebei Provincial Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars/ ; 41901128//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Global climate change has had a significant impact on crop production and agricultural water use. Investigating different future climate scenarios and their possible impacts on crop production and water consumption is critical for proposing effective responses to climate change. In this study, based on daily downscaled climate data from 22 Global Climate Models (GCMs) provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we applied the well-validated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate crop phenology, yield, and water use of the rice-wheat rotation at four representative stations (including Hefei and Shouxian stations in Anhui province and Kunshan and Xuzhou stations in Jiangsu province) across the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China during the 2041-2070 period (2050s) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). The results showed a significant increase in annual mean temperature (Temp) and solar radiation (Rad), and annual total precipitation (Prec) at four investigated stations, except Rad under SSP370. Climate change mainly leads to a consistent advance in wheat phenology, but inconsistent trends in rice phenology across four stations. Moreover, the reproductive growth period (RGP) of wheat was prolonged while that of rice was shorted at three of four stations. Both rice and wheat yields were negatively correlated with Temp, but positively correlated with Rad, Prec, and CO2 concentration ([CO2]). However, crop ET was positively correlated with Rad, but negatively correlated with [CO2], as elevated [CO2] decreased stomatal conductance. Moreover, the water use efficiency (WUE) of rice and wheat was negatively correlated with Temp, but positively correlated with [CO2]. Overall, our study indicated that the change in Temp, Rad, Prec, and [CO2] have different impacts on different crops and at different stations. Therefore, in the impact assessment for climate change, it is necessary to explore and analyze different crops in different regions. Additionally, our study helps to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop production and water consumption and provides data support for the sustainable development of agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid36138207, year = {2022}, author = {Troia, MJ and Kaz, AL and Niemeyer, JC and Giam, X}, title = {Author Correction: Species traits and reduced habitat suitability limit efficacy of climate change refugia in streams.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {1777-1787}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-022-01874-0}, pmid = {36138207}, issn = {2397-334X}, }
@article {pmid36137455, year = {2022}, author = {Skeirytė, A and Krikštolaitis, R and Liobikienė, G}, title = {The differences of climate change perception, responsibility and climate-friendly behavior among generations and the main determinants of youth's climate-friendly actions in the EU.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {323}, number = {}, pages = {116277}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116277}, pmid = {36137455}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Automobiles ; *Climate Change ; European Union ; Humans ; Perception ; *Social Behavior ; }, abstract = {The role of society to mitigate climate change is particularly important. However, generations, different age cohorts are differently related to and concerned about climate change. The main criticism of the young generation is that they talk about climate change a lot but do not behave in a climate-friendly manner. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to analyze the difference of climate change perception, responsibility and climate-friendly behavior among Baby Boomer generation, Generations X, Y and Z in all European Union (EU) countries. After applying the Chi-square test, the results showed that younger people in the EU tend to have the perception of climate change more often than their older counterparts. Moreover, people from younger generations tend to place responsibility of solving climate change on the business/industrial sectors and environmental groups more often than the preceding generations do. Furthermore, more of young people assumed personal responsibility, used environmentally friendly alternatives to personal cars, and considered carbon footprint before purchasing a product, as opposed to older generations. However, the youth separated waste and decreased the use of disposable items less comparing with older generations. Applying binary logistic regression, the results showed that climate change perception and placement of responsibility on environmental groups positively and statistically significantly influenced all climate-friendly actions of the youth. Personal responsibility statistically significantly decreased probability of all climate-friendly actions. Responsibility placement on the government and business/industrial sectors reduced the probability to carry out waste reduction behavior. Thus, this study revealed that young people are not always climate-friendly, and this study provides the insights into how to promote climate-friendly behavior among youths.}, }
@article {pmid36137101, year = {2022}, author = {Bornmann, L and Haunschild, R and Boyack, K and Marx, W and Minx, JC}, title = {How relevant is climate change research for climate change policy? An empirical analysis based on Overton data.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {9}, pages = {e0274693}, pmid = {36137101}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an ongoing topic in nearly all areas of society since many years. A discussion of climate change without referring to scientific results is not imaginable. This is especially the case for policies since action on the macro scale is required to avoid costly consequences for society. In this study, we deal with the question of how research on climate change and policy are connected. In 2019, the new Overton database of policy documents was released including links to research papers that are cited by policy documents. The use of results and recommendations from research on climate change might be reflected in citations of scientific papers in policy documents. Although we suspect a lot of uncertainty related to the coverage of policy documents in Overton, there seems to be an impact of international climate policy cycles on policy document publication. We observe local peaks in climate policy documents around major decisions in international climate diplomacy. Our results point out that IGOs and think tanks-with a focus on climate change-have published more climate change policy documents than expected. We found that climate change papers that are cited in climate change policy documents received significantly more citations on average than climate change papers that are not cited in these documents. Both areas of society (science and policy) focus on similar climate change research fields: biology, earth sciences, engineering, and disease sciences. Based on these and other empirical results in this study, we propose a simple model of policy impact considering a chain of different document types: The chain starts with scientific assessment reports (systematic reviews) that lead via science communication documents (policy briefs, policy reports or plain language summaries) and government reports to legislative documents.}, }
@article {pmid36137038, year = {2022}, author = {Rohatyn, S and Yakir, D and Rotenberg, E and Carmel, Y}, title = {Limited climate change mitigation potential through forestation of the vast dryland regions.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {377}, number = {6613}, pages = {1436-1439}, doi = {10.1126/science.abm9684}, pmid = {36137038}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; }, abstract = {Forestation of the vast global drylands has been considered a promising climate change mitigation strategy. However, its actual climatic benefits are uncertain because the forests' reduced albedo can produce large warming effects. Using high-resolution spatial analysis of global drylands, we found 448 million hectares suitable for afforestation. This area's carbon sequestration potential until 2100 is 32.3 billion tons of carbon (Gt C), but 22.6 Gt C of that is required to balance albedo effects. The net carbon equivalent would offset ~1% of projected medium-emissions and business-as-usual scenarios over the same period. Focusing forestation only on areas with net cooling effects would use half the area and double the emissions offset. Although such smart forestation is clearly important, its limited climatic benefits reinforce the need to reduce emissions rapidly.}, }
@article {pmid36137031, year = {2022}, author = {Belcher, O}, title = {Greening national securityThe Pentagon, Climate Change, and War Neta C. Crawford MIT Press, 2022. 392 pp.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {377}, number = {6613}, pages = {1389}, doi = {10.1126/science.add9472}, pmid = {36137031}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {The US military's eye-watering carbon footprint must be mitigated, argues a political scientist.}, }
@article {pmid36136850, year = {2022}, author = {Bahrami, G and Rafiey, H and Shakiba, A and Noroozi, M and Sajjadi, H and Seddighi, H}, title = {Climate Change and Respiratory Diseases: Relationship between SARS and Climatic Parameters and Impact of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of SARS in Iran.}, journal = {Advances in respiratory medicine}, volume = {90}, number = {5}, pages = {378-390}, pmid = {36136850}, issn = {2543-6031}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Iran/epidemiology ; Male ; Retrospective Studies ; *Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects human health, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) incidence is one of the health impacts of climate change. This study is a retrospective cohort study. Data have been collected from the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education between 17 February 2016 and17 February 2018. The Neural Network Model has been used to predict SARS infection. Based on the results of the multivariate Poisson regression and the analysis of the coexistence of the variables, the minimum daily temperature was positively associated with the risk of SARS in men and women. The risk of SARS has increased in women and men with increasing daily rainfall. According to the result, by changes in bioclimatic parameters, the number of SARS patients will be increased in cities of Iran. Our study has shown a significant relationship between SARS and the climatic variables by the type of climate and gender. The estimates suggest that hospital admissions for climate-related respiratory diseases in Iran will increase by 36% from 2020 to 2050. This study demonstrates one of the health impacts of climate change. Policymakers can control the risks of climate change by mitigation and adaptation strategists.}, }
@article {pmid36136181, year = {2023}, author = {Aibaidula, D and Ates, N and Dadaser-Celik, F}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts at a drinking water reservoir in Turkey and implications for reservoir management in semi-arid regions.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {13582-13604}, pmid = {36136181}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {118Y402//T&#xfc;rkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Ara&#x15f;tirma Kurumu/ ; FDK-2021-10794//Bilimsel Ara&#x15f;t&#x131;rma Projeleri, Erciyes &#xdc;niversitesi/ ; }, mesh = {*Drinking Water ; Climate Change ; Turkey ; Water Supply ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Climate change can have severe impacts on the water availability in semi-arid regions. In this study, we assessed the impact of climatic changes on water availability in the Altınapa Reservoir Watershed, located in the Konya province, south-central Turkey. Altınapa Reservoir supplies drinking water to Konya, a city of about 2 million population. We investigated possible changes in streamflow and reservoir storage over 2021-2098 under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) developed based on GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR global circulation models. We used a physically based model (SWAT-Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for understanding the hydrologic response of the basin to climatic changes. Results show that upward trends in air temperatures in the range of 0.01-0.04 °C/year and 0.005-0.06 °C/year are expected from 2021 to 2098 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. According to the HadGEM2-ES model, precipitation and streamflow would show a downward trend at a rate of 0.96 mm/year and 0.007 m[3]/s/year under the RCP4.5 scenario and at a rate of 1.62 mm/year and 0.01 m[3]/s/year under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-MR models project upward trends in precipitation and streamflow under the RCP4.5 scenario (in the range of 0.64-1.28 mm/year and 0.0003-0.006 m[3]/s/year, respectively), and downward trends under the RCP8.5 scenario (in the range of 0.47-0.76 mm/year and 0.0015-0.003 m[3]/s/year, respectively). Reservoir storage is projected to increase slightly according to GFDL-ESM2M model and decrease according to the HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR models under both scenarios. Precipitation, streamflow, and reservoir storage predictions of GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-MR models are considerably lower than those observed in the basin in recent decades, showing that water resources will decrease in the future. The changes in water withdrawal patterns could cause further reductions in water availability. Good resilience to climate change can be achieved by a flexible water management system and by reducing water consumption and water losses in the watershed and from the reservoirs.}, }
@article {pmid36134034, year = {2022}, author = {Wieler, LH}, title = {Climate change - a burning topic for public health.}, journal = {Journal of health monitoring}, volume = {7}, number = {Suppl 4}, pages = {3-6}, pmid = {36134034}, issn = {2511-2708}, }
@article {pmid36130614, year = {2023}, author = {Roubille, F and Matzner-Lober, E and Aguilhon, S and Rene, M and Lecourt, L and Galinier, M and Ricci, JE and Molinari, N}, title = {Impact of global warming on weight in patients with heart failure during the 2019 heatwave in France.}, journal = {ESC heart failure}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {727-731}, pmid = {36130614}, issn = {2055-5822}, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; *Global Warming ; *Heart Failure ; Europe ; France ; Chronic Disease ; }, abstract = {Heatwaves affect human health and should be more and more frequent because of global warming and could lead to increase mortality in general population, especially regarding cardiovascular mortality. During the summer 2019, Europe experienced a strong episode of heatwave. Telemonitoring of patients with heart failure (HF) provide an elegant tool to monitor closely the weights, and we assumed to be able to assess our hypothesis through a nationwide telemonitoring system. Here, we hypothesize that (i) there will be a change in patients' weight during the heatwave and (ii) that the telemonitoring would enable us to follow these changes. The change in weight would be a surrogate for clinical worsening (with or without decompensated HF). Briefly, 1420 patients with a median age of 73.0 years and mean weight of 78.1 kg have been included in this analysis. The relationship between temperature and weight is very strong (P < 10[-7]). The magnitude of the effect seems clinically relevant with a variation of 1.5 kg during a short period. This could expose patients to increased symptoms, HF decompensations, and poor outcomes. These results suggest a new way to implement weight telemonitoring in HF. This suggests also a direct impact of global warming on Human health, with acute episodes that are expected to occur more often, threatening patients with chronic diseases, especially patients with heart failure. In clinical practice, this urges to take into consideration the episodes of extreme heatwave and suggest that we have already useful tools including telemonitoring available in frail patients.}, }
@article {pmid36129885, year = {2022}, author = {Effrosynidis, D and Sylaios, G and Arampatzis, A}, title = {Exploring climate change on Twitter using seven aspects: Stance, sentiment, aggressiveness, temperature, gender, topics, and disasters.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {9}, pages = {e0274213}, pmid = {36129885}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Attitude ; Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; *Social Media ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {How do climate change deniers differ from believers? Is there any correlation between human sentiment and deviations from historic temperature? We answer nine such questions using 13 years of Twitter data and 15 million tweets. Seven aspects are explored, namely, user gender, climate change stance and sentiment, aggressiveness, deviations from historic temperature, topics discussed, and environmental disaster events. We found that: a) climate change deniers use the term global warming much often than believers and use aggressive language, while believers tweet more about taking actions to fight the phenomenon, b) deniers are more present in the American Region, South Africa, Japan, and Eastern China and less present in Europe, India, and Central Africa, c) people connect much more the warm temperatures with man-made climate change than cold temperatures, d) the same regions that had more climate change deniers also tweet with negative sentiment, e) a positive correlation is observed between human sentiment and deviations from historic temperature; when the deviation is between -1.143°C and +2.401°C, people tweet the most positive, f) there exist 90% correlation between sentiment and stance, and -94% correlation between sentiment and aggressiveness, g) no clear patterns are observed to correlate sentiment and stance with disaster events based on total deaths, number of affected, and damage costs, h) topics discussed on Twitter indicate that climate change is a politicized issue and people are expressing their concerns especially when witnessing extreme weather; the global stance could be considered optimistic, as there are many discussions that point out the importance of human intervention to fight climate change and actions are being taken through events to raise the awareness of this phenomenon.}, }
@article {pmid36129581, year = {2022}, author = {Katavoutas, G and Founda, D and Varotsos, KV and Giannakopoulos, C}, title = {Climate change impacts on thermal stress in four climatically diverse European cities.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {11}, pages = {2339-2355}, pmid = {36129581}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Cities ; Quality of Life ; *Heat Stress Disorders ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {The thermal conditions that prevail in cities pose a number of challenges to urban residents and policy makers related to quality of life, health and welfare as well as to sustainable urban development. However, the changes in thermal stress due to climate change are probably not uniform among cities with different background climates. In this work, a comparative analysis of observed and projected thermal stress (cold stress, heat stress, no thermal stress) across four European cities (Helsinki, Rotterdam, Vienna, and Athens), which are representative of different geographical and climatic regions of the continent, for a recent period (1975 - 2004) and two future periods (2029 - 2058, 2069 - 2098) has been conducted. Applying a rational thermal index (Universal Thermal Climate Index) and considering two models of the EURO-CORDEX experiment (RCA4-MOHC, RCA4-MPI) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), the projected future changes in thermal conditions are inspected. The distribution of thermal stress in the current climate varies greatly between the cities, reflecting their climatic and urban heterogeneity. In the future climate, a reduction in the frequency of cold stress is expected across all cities, ranging between - 2.9% and - 16.2%. The projected increase in the frequency of optimal thermal conditions increases with increasing latitude, while the projected increase in the frequency of heat stress (ranging from + 0.2 to + 14.6%) decreases with increasing latitudes. Asymmetrical changes in cold- and heat-related stress between cities were found to affect the annual percentage of optimal (no thermal stress) conditions in future. Although future projections are expected to partly bridge the gap between the less-privileged cities (with respect to annual frequency of optimal thermal conditions) like Helsinki and Rotterdam and the more privileged ones like Athens, the former will still lag behind on an annual basis.}, }
@article {pmid36129014, year = {2022}, author = {Christie, K and Pierson, NR and Lowry, DB and Holeski, LM}, title = {Local adaptation of seed and seedling traits along a natural aridity gradient may both predict and constrain adaptive responses to climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {109}, number = {10}, pages = {1529-1544}, pmid = {36129014}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {*Seedlings/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Germination/physiology ; Seeds/genetics ; Adaptation, Physiological/physiology ; }, abstract = {PREMISE: Variation in seed and seedling traits underlies how plants interact with their environment during establishment, a crucial life history stage. We quantified genetic-based variation in seed and seedling traits in populations of the annual plant Plantago patagonica across a natural aridity gradient, leveraging natural intraspecific variation to predict how populations might evolve in response to increasing aridity associated with climate change in the Southwestern U.S.<br><br>METHODS: We quantified seed size, seed size variation, germination timing, and specific leaf area in a greenhouse common garden, and related these traits to the climates of source populations. We then conducted a terminal drought experiment to determine which traits were most predictive of survival under early-season drought.<br><br>RESULTS: All traits showed evidence of clinal variation-seed size decreased, germination timing accelerated, and specific leaf area increased with increasing aridity. Populations with more variable historical precipitation regimes showed greater variation in seed size, suggestive of past selection shaping a diversified bet-hedging strategy mediated by seed size. Seedling height, achieved via larger seeds or earlier germination, was a significant predictor of survival under drought.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We documented substantial interspecific trait variation as well as clinal variation in several important seed and seedling traits, yet these slopes were often opposite to predictions for how individual traits might confer drought tolerance. This work shows that plant populations may adapt to increasing aridity via correlated trait responses associated with alternative life history strategies, but that trade-offs might constrain adaptive responses in individual traits.}, }
@article {pmid36127487, year = {2022}, author = {Ratnakaran, B and Barman, R}, title = {Climate Change and Older Adults: an Important Reason to Prepare Trainees for the Imminent Geriatric Mental Health Crisis.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {580-581}, pmid = {36127487}, issn = {1545-7230}, mesh = {Aged ; *Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Geriatric Psychiatry/education ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid36127334, year = {2022}, author = {Réveillet, M and Dumont, M and Gascoin, S and Lafaysse, M and Nabat, P and Ribes, A and Nheili, R and Tuzet, F and Ménégoz, M and Morin, S and Picard, G and Ginoux, P}, title = {Black carbon and dust alter the response of mountain snow cover under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {5279}, pmid = {36127334}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Dust/analysis ; *Snow ; Soot ; Water ; }, abstract = {By darkening the snow surface, mineral dust and black carbon (BC) deposition enhances snowmelt and triggers numerous feedbacks. Assessments of their long-term impact at the regional scale are still largely missing despite the environmental and socio-economic implications of snow cover changes. Here we show, using numerical simulations, that dust and BC deposition advanced snowmelt by 17 ± 6 days on average in the French Alps and the Pyrenees over the 1979-2018 period. BC and dust also advanced by 10-15 days the peak melt water runoff, a substantial effect on the timing of water resources availability. We also demonstrate that the decrease in BC deposition since the 1980s moderates the impact of current warming on snow cover decline. Hence, accounting for changes in light-absorbing particles deposition is required to improve the accuracy of snow cover reanalyses and climate projections, that are crucial for better understanding the past and future evolution of mountain social-ecological systems.}, }
@article {pmid36126319, year = {2022}, author = {Chandra, A and Ashley, L and Arthur, MY}, title = {Climate Change, Migration, and Health: Strategic Opportunities for Health Security.}, journal = {Health security}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {440-444}, doi = {10.1089/hs.2022.0052}, pmid = {36126319}, issn = {2326-5108}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid36122721, year = {2023}, author = {Carrillo-García, C and Girola-Iglesias, L and Guijarro, M and Hernando, C and Madrigal, J and Mateo, RG}, title = {Ecological niche models applied to post-megafire vegetation restoration in the context of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {855}, number = {}, pages = {158858}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158858}, pmid = {36122721}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Trees ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; *Fires ; }, abstract = {Climate change and land-use changes are the main drivers altering fire regimes and leading to the occurrence of megafires. Current management policies mainly focus on short-term restoration without considering how climate change might affect regeneration dynamics. We aimed to test the usefulness of ecological niche models (ENMs) to integrate the effects of climate change on tree species distributions into post-fire restoration planning. We also examined different important conceptual and methodological aspects during this novel process. We constructed ENM at fine spatial resolution (25 m) for the four main tree species (Pinus pinaster, Quercus pyrenaica, Q. faginea and Q. ilex) in an area affected by a megafire in Central Spain at two scales (local and regional), two periods (2 and 14 years after the fire) at the local scale, and under two future climate change scenarios. The usefulness of ENMs as support tools in decision-making for post-fire management was confirmed for the first time. As hypothesized, models developed at both scales are different, since they represent different scale dependent drivers of species distribution patterns. However, both provide objective information to be considered by stakeholders in combination with other sources of information. Local models generated with vegetation data 14 years after the fire provided valuable information about local and current vegetation dynamics (i.e., current microecology spatial niche prediction). Regional models are capable of considering a higher proportion of the climatic niche of species to generate reliable climate change forecasts (i.e., future macroclimate spatial niche forecast). The use of precise ENMs provide both an objective interpretation of potential habitat conditions and the opportunity of examining vegetation patches, that can be very valuable in managing restoration of areas affected by megafires under climate change conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36120097, year = {2022}, author = {Huggel, C and Bouwer, LM and Juhola, S and Mechler, R and Muccione, V and Orlove, B and Wallimann-Helmer, I}, title = {The existential risk space of climate change.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {174}, number = {1-2}, pages = {8}, pmid = {36120097}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Climate change is widely recognized as a major risk to societies and natural ecosystems but the high end of the risk, i.e., where risks become existential, is poorly framed, defined, and analyzed in the scientific literature. This gap is at odds with the fundamental relevance of existential risks for humanity, and it also limits the ability of scientific communities to engage with emerging debates and narratives about the existential dimension of climate change that have recently gained considerable traction. This paper intends to address this gap by scoping and defining existential risks related to climate change. We first review the context of existential risks and climate change, drawing on research in fields on global catastrophic risks, and on key risks and the so-called Reasons for Concern in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We also consider how existential risks are framed in the civil society climate movement as well as what can be learned in this respect from the COVID-19 crisis. To better frame existential risks in the context of climate change, we propose to define them as those risks that threaten the existence of a subject, where this subject can be an individual person, a community, or nation state or humanity. The threat to their existence is defined by two levels of severity: conditions that threaten (1) survival and (2) basic human needs. A third level, well-being, is commonly not part of the space of existential risks. Our definition covers a range of different scales, which leads us into further defining six analytical dimensions: physical and social processes involved, systems affected, magnitude, spatial scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In conclusion, we suggest that a clearer and more precise definition and framing of existential risks of climate change such as we offer here facilitates scientific analysis as well societal and political discourse and action.}, }
@article {pmid36119165, year = {2022}, author = {Reddy, GP and Rajamouli, J and Arora, KD and Jothula, KY and Amaravadi, S and Boda, A}, title = {Knowledge, perceptions and practices of medical students towards climate change and global warming: A cross sectional study.}, journal = {Journal of family medicine and primary care}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {2557-2564}, pmid = {36119165}, issn = {2249-4863}, abstract = {CONTEXT: Climate change is the biggest global health threat and also the greatest health opportunity of the 21[st] century. Five warmest years among the last 140 years occurred between 2015 and 2019. Limited information is available regarding the knowledge and practices of medical students towards climate change, especially in India.<br><br>SETTINGS AND DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in two medical colleges of Karimnagar city from January 2021 to July 2021 involving MBBS and Post-graduate students as study participants.<br><br>METHODS AND MATERIAL: 903 undergraduate and post-graduate medical students who consented for the study were included. A pre-structured questionnaire was used.<br><br>STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: Data is presented in frequencies and proportions with 95% confidence interval and Chi-square test is used as test of significance.<br><br>RESULTS: Poor knowledge regarding Sustainable Developmental Goal for climate action, Organisations dealing climate change and Government actions towards climate change were observed among study participants. Cardiovascular and respiratory diseases (84%) were answered as the major health impacts of climate change. Majority (97.4%) of the participants agreed that 'human actions are also the cause for global warming'. Environment-friendly practices were observed significantly high among participants with adequate knowledge. Major (72%) source of learning about climate change was via internet.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study found that major proportion of participants doesn't have environment-friendly practices. However, the participants with adequate knowledge about climate change were observed to have more eco-friendly practices compared to participants with inadequate knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid36118617, year = {2023}, author = {Danylchuk, AJ and Griffin, LP and Ahrens, R and Allen, MS and Boucek, RE and Brownscombe, JW and Casselberry, GA and Danylchuk, SC and Filous, A and Goldberg, TL and Perez, AU and Rehage, JS and Santos, RO and Shenker, J and Wilson, JK and Adams, AJ and Cooke, SJ}, title = {Cascading effects of climate change on recreational marine flats fishes and fisheries.}, journal = {Environmental biology of fishes}, volume = {106}, number = {2}, pages = {381-416}, pmid = {36118617}, issn = {0378-1909}, abstract = {Tropical and subtropical coastal flats are shallow regions of the marine environment at the intersection of land and sea. These regions provide myriad ecological goods and services, including recreational fisheries focused on flats-inhabiting fishes such as bonefish, tarpon, and permit. The cascading effects of climate change have the potential to negatively impact coastal flats around the globe and to reduce their ecological and economic value. In this paper, we consider how the combined effects of climate change, including extremes in temperature and precipitation regimes, sea level rise, and changes in nutrient dynamics, are causing rapid and potentially permanent changes to the structure and function of tropical and subtropical flats ecosystems. We then apply the available science on recreationally targeted fishes to reveal how these changes can cascade through layers of biological organization-from individuals, to populations, to communities-and ultimately impact the coastal systems that depend on them. We identify critical gaps in knowledge related to the extent and severity of these effects, and how such gaps influence the effectiveness of conservation, management, policy, and grassroots stewardship efforts.}, }
@article {pmid36118175, year = {2022}, author = {Temudo, MP and Cabral, AIR and Reis, P}, title = {The Sea Swallowed our Houses and Rice Fields: The Vulnerability to Climate Change of Coastal People in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa.}, journal = {Human ecology: an interdisciplinary journal}, volume = {50}, number = {5}, pages = {835-850}, pmid = {36118175}, issn = {0300-7839}, abstract = {Guinea-Bissau remains among the African countries most vulnerable to climate change due to its flat topography and large meandering coastal area invaded by the tides.We present a case study of the island-village of Djobel, showing the dramatic consequences of socio-environmental change. The inhabitants' attempts to mitigate the impact of extreme weather events and sea-level rise and adapt to the new circumstances have been hampered by the seizure of their upland territory by a neighboring village. In the context of a disconnect between state and society, Djobel's inhabitants want the state to guarantee their rights to productive land, water, and safe housing conditions. This case shows the need for legal protection of the rights of poor, marginalized, and underrepresented populations at risk of becoming climate refugees in the fragile context of politically unstable, failed, and often authoritarian states.}, }
@article {pmid36116666, year = {2023}, author = {Lustosa do Carmo, TL and Moraes de Lima, MC and de Vasconcelos Lima, JL and Silva de Souza, S and Val, AL}, title = {Tissue distribution of appetite regulation genes and their expression in the Amazon fish Colossoma macropomum exposed to climate change scenario.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {854}, number = {}, pages = {158729}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158729}, pmid = {36116666}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Appetite Regulation ; Climate Change ; Tissue Distribution ; Cholecystokinin/genetics/metabolism ; Neuropeptide Y/genetics/metabolism ; *Characiformes/metabolism ; Hormones ; }, abstract = {Climate change leads to an increase in water acidification and temperature, two environmental factors that can change fish appetite and metabolism, affecting fish population in both wild and aquaculture facilities. Therefore, our study tested if climate change affects gene expression levels of two appetite-regulating peptides - Neuropeptide Y (NPY) and Cholecystokinin (CCK) - in the brain of tambaqui, Colossoma macropomum. Additionally, we show the distribution of these genes throughout the body. Amino acid sequences of CCK and NPY of tambaqui showed high similarity with other Characiformes, with the closely related order Cypriniformes, and even with the more distantly related order Salmoniformes. High apparent levels of both peptides were expressed in all brain areas, while expression levels varied for peripheral tissues. NPY and CCK mRNA were detected in all peripheral tissues but cephalic kidney for CCK. As for the effects of climate change, we found that fish exposed to extreme climate scenario (800 ppm CO2 and 4.5 °C above current climate scenario) had higher expression levels of NPY and lower expression levels of CCK in the telencephalon. The extreme climate scenario also increased food intake, weight gain, and body length. These results suggest that the telencephalon is probably responsible for sensing the metabolic status of the organism and controlling feeding behavior through NPY, likely an orexigenic hormone, and CCK, which may act as an anorexigenic hormone. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing the effects of climate change on the endocrine regulation of appetite in an endemic and economically important fish from the Amazon. Our results can help us predict the impact of climate change on both wild and farmed fish populations, thus contributing to the elaboration of future policies regarding their conservation and sustainable use.}, }
@article {pmid36116263, year = {2022}, author = {Trájer, AJ and Sebestyén, V and Domokos, E and Abonyi, J}, title = {Indicators for climate change-driven urban health impact assessment.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {323}, number = {}, pages = {116165}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116165}, pmid = {36116263}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Health Impact Assessment ; Hot Temperature ; *Ozone/analysis ; Temperature ; Urban Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change can cause multiply potential health issues in urban areas, which is the most susceptible environment in terms of the presently increasing climate volatility. Urban greening strategies make an important part of the adaptation strategies which can ameliorate the negative impacts of climate change. It was aimed to study the potential impacts of different kinds of greenings against the adverse effects of climate change, including waterborne, vector-borne diseases, heat-related mortality, and surface ozone concentration in a medium-sized Hungarian city. As greening strategies, large and pocket parks were considered, based on our novel location identifier algorithm for climate risk minimization. A method based on publicly available data sources including satellite pictures, climate scenarios and urban macrostructure has been developed to evaluate the health-related indicator patterns in cities. The modelled future- and current patterns of the indicators have been compared. The results can help the understanding of the possible future state of the studied indicators and the development of adequate greening strategies. Another outcome of the study is that it is not the type of health indicator but its climate sensitivity that determines the extent to which it responds to temperature rises and how effective greening strategies are in addressing the expected problem posed by the factor.}, }
@article {pmid36116001, year = {2023}, author = {Hurst Loo, AM and Walker, BR}, title = {Climate change knowledge influences attitude to mitigation via efficacy beliefs.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {43}, number = {6}, pages = {1162-1173}, doi = {10.1111/risa.14026}, pmid = {36116001}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Adult ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Attitude ; Communication ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Theories proposing climate change apathy is explained by inadequate knowledge do not account for why many informed and concerned Americans fail to act. While correlations between knowledge, efficacy for climate change, and attitude to mitigation have been observed, few studies have examined efficacy for climate change as a mediator. This study aimed to investigate the influence of specific climate change knowledge on attitude to mitigation via efficacy beliefs. A cross-sectional survey of 205 US adults recruited from Amazon's Mechanical Turk assessed participants' climate change knowledge, efficacy for climate change, and attitude to mitigation. Indirect effects of self-efficacy for climate change were observed in three mediation models, suggesting efficacy for climate change explains some of the relationship between specific climate change knowledge and attitude to mitigation. The findings suggest risk communication can motivate pro-environmental attitudes with interventions that deliver information about climate change and develop efficacy for mitigation behavior.}, }
@article {pmid36115977, year = {2022}, author = {Dunne, H and Rizan, C and Jones, A and Bhutta, MF and Taylor, T and Barna, S and Taylor, CJ and Okorie, M}, title = {Effectiveness of an online module: climate-change and sustainability in clinical practice.}, journal = {BMC medical education}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {682}, pmid = {36115977}, issn = {1472-6920}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Curriculum ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Schools, Medical ; *Students, Medical ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has significant implications for health, yet healthcare provision itself contributes significant greenhouse gas emission. Medical students need to be prepared to address impacts of the changing environment and fulfil a key role in climate mitigation. Here we evaluate the effectiveness of an online module on climate-change and sustainability in clinical practice designed to achieve learning objectives adapted from previously established sustainable healthcare priority learning outcomes.<br><br>METHODS: A multi-media, online module was developed, and 3[rd] and 4[th] year medical students at Brighton and Sussex Medical School were invited to enrol. Students completed pre- and post-module questionnaires consisting of Likert scale and white space answer questions. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of responses was performed.<br><br>RESULTS: Forty students enrolled and 33 students completed the module (83% completion rate). There was a significant increase in reported understanding of key concepts related to climate change and sustainability in clinical practice (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001), with proportion of students indicating good or excellent understanding increasing from between 2 - 21% students to between 91 - 97% students. The majority (97%) of students completed the module within 90&#xa0;min. All students reported the module was relevant to their training. Thematic analysis of white space responses found students commonly reported they wanted access to more resources related to health and healthcare sustainability, as well as further guidance on how to make practical steps towards reducing the environmental impact within a clinical setting.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This is the first study to evaluate learner outcomes of an online module in the field of sustainable health and healthcare. Our results suggest that completion of the module was associated with significant improvement in self-assessed knowledge of key concepts in climate health and sustainability. We hope this approach is followed elsewhere to prepare healthcare staff for impacts of climate change and to support improving the environmental sustainability of healthcare delivery.<br><br>TRIAL REGISTRATION: Study registered with Brighton and Sussex Medical School Research Governance and Ethics Committee (BSMS RGEC). Reference: ER/BSMS3576/8, Date: 4/3/2020.}, }
@article {pmid36114895, year = {2022}, author = {An, N and Turp, MT and Orgen, B and Bilgin, B and Kurnaz, ML}, title = {Analysis of the impact of climate change on grapevines in Turkey using heat unit accumulation-based indices.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {11}, pages = {2325-2338}, pmid = {36114895}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Turkey ; Temperature ; *Vitis ; }, abstract = {Temperature is the most important factor influencing grapevine phenology and yield. Various indices have been developed that deal with the temperature sums that grapevines are exposed to during growth and maturation. With the help of these indices, predictions are made about whether the grapes will grow in a certain region and the quality of the grapevines. In this study, the future impacts of climate change on viticultural conditions in Turkey were projected by using Huglin index (HI), Winkler index (WI), and cool night index (CI). Under the RCP8.5 scenario, HI, WI, and CI indices for the future period of 2022-2050 were calculated for Turkey at 10 km spatial resolution with the RegCM4.4 model and compared with the 1972-2000 reference period. As a result of the study, a substantial increase in CI, HI, and WI and at least one level of categorical change were observed in the climatic conditions of the next 30 years in Turkey. These categorical shifts in CI, HI, and WI indicate that there may be changes in the geographical pattern of grapevine species grown in Turkey as well as the aroma and quality.}, }
@article {pmid36114726, year = {2023}, author = {Hatfield, J and Domingo, A and Ivicek Lanciotti, K and Mitenbuler, S and Stadler, D and Peterson, TD and Needoba, J}, title = {An interprofessional, solutions-oriented approach to raising awareness about the impacts of climate change on human health for health profession students.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {453-454}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.14464}, pmid = {36114726}, issn = {1879-3479}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Students, Health Occupations ; Curriculum ; Health Occupations ; Interprofessional Relations ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; }, }
@article {pmid36114276, year = {2022}, author = {Escalante, MA and Marková, S and Searle, JB and Kotlík, P}, title = {Genic distribution modelling predicts adaptation of the bank vole to climate change.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {981}, pmid = {36114276}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Arvicolinae/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Hemoglobins ; }, abstract = {The most likely pathway for many species to survive future climate change is by pre-existing trait variation providing a fitness advantage under the new climate. Here we evaluate the potential role of haemoglobin (Hb) variation in bank voles under future climate change. We model gene-climate relationships for two functionally distinct Hb types, HbS and HbF, which have a north-south distribution in Britain presenting an unusually tractable system linking genetic variation in physiology to geographical and temporal variation in climate. Projections to future climatic conditions suggest a change in relative climatic suitability that would result in HbS being displaced by HbF in northern Britain. This would facilitate local adaptation to future climate-without Hb displacement, populations in northern Britain would likely be suboptimally adapted because their Hb would not match local climatic conditions. Our study shows how pre-existing physiological differences can influence the adaptive capacity of species to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36112287, year = {2022}, author = {Adam, C and Drakos, P}, title = {Climate change: north and south EU economies-an application of dynamic asymmetric panel data models.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {46}, pages = {70573-70590}, pmid = {36112287}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Economic Development ; European Union ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The need for a cleaner environment and wealthier economies has been highly recognized by European Union (EU) policymakers of the last years, as evidenced by the creation of a plethora of laws and regulations for reducing carbon dioxide emissions while promoting the economic prosperity of EU countries. Indeed, many works have been done in this field, remarking on climate change's impacts on economies and the need for determinant environmental policies inside the EU. This paper investigates the effect of climate change on economic growth using nonlinear dynamic panel methods for 15 countries of the EU in the period 1981-2019. Specifically, it is examined the impact of temperature, precipitation, and CO2 emissions on economic growth. So, autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) methods were employed, overcoming cross-dependency and also considering linearity and nonlinearity. The results showed that economic growth has positive nonlinear relationship with long-run temperature, but in short-run they have a symmetric negative association. Moreover, precipitation has long-run negative and a short-run positive relationship with economic growth. However, when CO2 emissions are added, then model's performance is decreased, and precipitation has a positive effect on economic growth, but all others, except from temperature increase, become insignificant. Finally, actions should be taken for more stable climate conditions and consistent environmental policies by EU countries.}, }
@article {pmid36112242, year = {2022}, author = {Young, I and Sanchez, JJ and Tustin, J}, title = {Recreational water illness in Canada: a changing risk landscape in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {113}, number = {6}, pages = {940-943}, pmid = {36112242}, issn = {1920-7476}, support = {2021-HQ-000017//Public Health Agency of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Child, Preschool ; *Bathing Beaches ; *Water Microbiology ; Climate Change ; Canada/epidemiology ; Feces ; }, abstract = {Swimming and other recreational water activities at public beaches are popular outdoor leisure activities among Canadians. However, these activities can lead to increased risks of acquiring acute gastrointestinal illness and other illnesses among beachgoers. Young children have much higher rates of exposure and illness than other age groups. These illnesses have a significant health and economic burden on society. Climate change is expected to influence both the risk of exposure and illness. A warming climate in Canada, including more severe summer heatwave events, will likely lead to increased recreational water use. Warmer temperatures will also contribute to the growth and increased range of harmful algal blooms and other climate-sensitive pathogens. Increased precipitation and heavy rainfall events will contribute to fecal and nutrient contamination of beach waters, increasing risks of gastrointestinal illness and harmful algal bloom events. There is a need to enhance recreational water research and surveillance in Canada to prepare for and adapt to these changing risks. Key research and policy needs are suggested and discussed, including evaluating and monitoring risks of recreational water illness in Canadian contexts, improving timely reporting of recreational water quality conditions, and enhancing approaches for routine beach water surveillance.}, }
@article {pmid36109425, year = {2022}, author = {Haase, E}, title = {Using Case-Based Teaching of Climate Change to Broaden Appreciation of Socio-Environmental Determinants of Mental Health.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {574-578}, pmid = {36109425}, issn = {1545-7230}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid36108263, year = {2023}, author = {Steg, L}, title = {Psychology of Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of psychology}, volume = {74}, number = {}, pages = {391-421}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-psych-032720-042905}, pmid = {36108263}, issn = {1545-2085}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Human behavior plays a critical role in causing global climate change as well as in responding to it. In this article, I review important insights on the psychology of climate change. I first discuss factors that affect the likelihood that individuals engage in a wide range of climate actions. Next, I review the processes through which values affect climate actions and reflect on how to motivate climate actions among people who do not strongly care about nature, the environment, and climate change. Then I explain that even people who may be motivated to engage in climate actions may not do so when they face major barriers to act. This implies that to promote wide-scale climate actions, broader system changes are needed. I discuss relevant factors that affect public support for system changes that facilitate and enable climate action. Finally, I summarize key lessons learned and identify important questions for future research.}, }
@article {pmid36106436, year = {2022}, author = {Ring, J}, title = {Climate change - dermatology must act as well.}, journal = {Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology : JEADV}, volume = {36}, number = {10}, pages = {1680}, doi = {10.1111/jdv.18535}, pmid = {36106436}, issn = {1468-3083}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Dermatology ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid36106068, year = {2022}, author = {Riaz, K and Ahmad, M and Gul, S and Malik, MHBA and Ur Rehman, ME}, title = {Climate change and its implications on health and the healthcare system: A perspective from Pakistan.}, journal = {Annals of medicine and surgery (2012)}, volume = {81}, number = {}, pages = {104507}, pmid = {36106068}, issn = {2049-0801}, }
@article {pmid36105893, year = {2023}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Ng, AW and Sharifi, A and Janová, J and Özuyar, PG and Hemani, C and Heyes, G and Njau, D and Rampasso, I}, title = {Global tourism, climate change and energy sustainability: assessing carbon reduction mitigating measures from the aviation industry.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {983-996}, pmid = {36105893}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {As many business activities-especially those associated with the energy-intensive industries-continue to be major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and hence significantly contributing to global warming, there is a perceived need to identify ways to make business activities eventually carbon neutral. This paper explores the implications of a changing climate for the global tourism business and its intertwining global aviation industry that operates in a self-regulatory environment. Adopting a bibliometric analysis of the literature in the domain of global tourism and climate change (772 articles), the paper reveals the underlying sustainability issues that entail unsustainable energy consumption. The aviation industry as a significant source of carbon emission within the sector is then examined by analyzing the top 20 largest commercial airlines in the world with respect to its ongoing mitigating measures in meeting the Paris Agreement targets. While self-regulatory initiatives are taken to adopt Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) as alternative fuel production and consumption for drastically reducing carbon emission, voluntary alignment and commitment to long-term targets remain inconsistent. A concerted strategic approach to building up complementary sustainable infrastructures among the global network of airports based in various international tourist destination cities to enable a measurable reduction in carbon emission is necessary to achieve a transformational adaptation of a business sector that is of essence to the recovery of the global economy while attempting to tackle climate change in a post-COVID-19 era.}, }
@article {pmid36105735, year = {2022}, author = {Fongnzossie, E and Sonwa, DJ and Mbevo, P and Kentatchime, F and Mokam, A and Tatuebu Tagne, C and Rim, LFEA}, title = {Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in Mangrove-Dependent Communities of Manoka Island, Littoral Region of Cameroon.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {2022}, number = {}, pages = {7546519}, pmid = {36105735}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Cameroon ; *Climate Change ; Family Characteristics ; Humans ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {This study was conducted on Manoka Island (Littoral Region of Cameroon) with the aim of analyzing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies based on the local community's perceptions and biophysical evidence. We used household surveys, focus group discussions, field observation, GIS, and remote sensing to collect data on variables of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Historical changes in rainfall and temperature, mangrove cover, and the occurrence of extreme climatic events were used as indicators of exposure. Property losses and income structure were used as indicators of sensitivity, while human, natural, social, financial, and physical assets represented adaptive capacity. 89 households were interviewed in the nine settlements of the island. Results show that Manoka Island is experiencing irregular rainfall patterns (with average annual values deviating from the mean by -1.9 to +1.8 mm) and increasing temperature (with annual values deviating from the mean by -1.2 to +3.12). The dynamics of the coastline between 1975 and 2017 using EPR show average setbacks of more than ±3 m/year, with erosion levels varying depending on the period and location. The number of households perceiving extreme climatic events like seasonal variability, flood, and rain storm was higher. From respondents' perception, housing and health are the sectors most affected by climate change. The reported high dependence of households on fishing for income, their overall low livelihood diversification, and their poor access to climate information reported by 65% of respondents portray their poor adaptive capacity. Local response initiatives are ineffective and include among others constructing buildings on stilts and using car wheels to counter the advancement of seawater inland. The study concludes that households on Manoka Island are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Income diversification, mangrove reforestation, the development of sustainable supply chains for wood fuel, and sustainable fish smoking devices are the main pathways for adaptation planning in this area.}, }
@article {pmid36105236, year = {2022}, author = {Chen, H and Zhao, L and Cheng, L and Zhang, Y and Wang, H and Gu, K and Bao, J and Yang, J and Liu, Z and Huang, J and Chen, Y and Gao, X and Xu, Y and Wang, C and Cai, W and Gong, P and Luo, Y and Liang, W and Huang, C}, title = {Projections of heatwave-attributable mortality under climate change and future population scenarios in China.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {28}, number = {}, pages = {100582}, pmid = {36105236}, issn = {2666-6065}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In China, most previous projections of heat-related mortality have been based on modeling studies using global climate models (GCMs), which can help to elucidate the risks of extreme heat events in a changing climate. However, spatiotemporal changes in the health effects of climate change considering specific regional characteristics remain poorly understood. We aimed to use credible climate and population projections to estimate future heatwave-attributable deaths under different emission scenarios and to explore the drivers underlying these patterns of changes.<br><br>METHODS: We derived climate data from a regional climate model driven by three CMIP5 GCM models and calculated future heatwaves in China under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The future gridded population data were based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 assumption with different fertility rates. By applying climate zone-specific exposure-response functions to mortality during heatwave events, we projected the scale of heatwave-attributable deaths under each RCP scenario. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in heatwave-related deaths and main sources of uncertainty using a decomposition method. We compared differences in death burden under the 1.5&#xb0;C target, which is closely related to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century.<br><br>FINDINGS: The number of heatwave-related deaths will increase continuously to the mid-century even under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and will continue increasing throughout the century under RCP8.5. There will be 20,303 deaths caused by heatwaves in 2090 under RCP2.6, 35,025 under RCP4.5, and 72,260 under RCP8.5, with half of all heatwave-related deaths in any scenario concentrated in east and central China. Climate effects are the main driver for the increase in attributable deaths in the near future till 2060, explaining 78% of the total change. Subsequent population decline cannot offset the losses caused by higher incidence of heatwaves and an aging population under RCP8.5. Although health loss under the 1.5&#xb0;C warming scenario is 1.6-fold higher than the baseline period 1986-2005, limiting the temperature rise to 1.5&#xb0;C can reduce the annual mortality burden in China by 3,534 deaths in 2090 compared with RCP2.6 scenarios.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: With accelerating climate change and population aging, the effects of future heatwaves on human health in China are likely to increase continuously even under a low emission scenario. Significant health benefits are expected if the optimistic 1.5&#xb0;C goal is achieved, suggesting that carbon neutrality by mid-century is a critical target for China's sustainable development. Policymakers need to tighten climate mitigation policies tailored to local conditions while enhancing climate resilience technically and infrastructurally, especially for vulnerable elderly people.<br><br>FUNDING: National Key R&amp;D Program of China (2018YFA0606200), Wellcome Trust (209734/Z/17/Z), Natural Science Foundation of China (41790471), and Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004).}, }
@article {pmid36104910, year = {2022}, author = {Xu, Y and Deng, Y and Zheng, T and Du, Y and Jiang, H and Pi, K and Xie, X and Gan, Y and Ma, T and Wang, Y}, title = {New evidence for linking the formation of high arsenic aquifers in the central Yangtze River Basin to climate change since Last Glacial Maximum.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {439}, number = {}, pages = {129684}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2022.129684}, pmid = {36104910}, issn = {1873-3336}, mesh = {*Arsenic/metabolism ; Climate Change ; *Groundwater/chemistry ; Rivers ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/chemistry ; }, abstract = {The prevalence of arsenic (As)-affected groundwater in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene aquifers leads to serious arsenicosis worldwide. However, the geogenic foundational processes underlying the high As aquifers remain elusive. Here we present joint lines of evidences from chronological, sediment geochemical and geomicrobial analysis that climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) initiates the genesis of high As aquifers in the central Yangtze River Basin, which represents Quaternary alluvial-lacustrine floodplains affected by arsenicosis occurrence. Optically stimulated luminescence-based sediments dating and grain size characterization indicate that the LGM depositional boundary also separates the Late-Pleistocene/Holocene high arsenic aquifers from the underlying arsenic-depleted aquifers. Further examination of solid-phase As/Fe/S speciation and associated microbial communities function suggests that the pre-LGM depositional environments characteristic of S metabolism engender the fixation of As in pyrite, whereas during the post-LGM period climate change to warm and humid leads to As repartitioning to Fe/Mn oxides in response to strong chemical weathering. This may have contributed to a dynamic fate of As in the post-LGM depositional environments and thus a highly variable aqueous As concentrations over depth. Our results highlight the important roles of climate change has played in the genesis of high As aquifers, with implications for other LGM-affected regions worldwide as well as for the evolution of high arsenic aquifers under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36103501, year = {2022}, author = {, }, title = {Retraction: Recent global warming as a proximate cause of deforestation and forest degradation in northern Pakistan.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {9}, pages = {e0274410}, pmid = {36103501}, issn = {1932-6203}, }
@article {pmid36103069, year = {2023}, author = {Zuo, J and Tang, X and Zhang, H and Zu, M and Zhang, X and Yuan, Y}, title = {Analysis of niche shift and potential suitable distributions of Dendrobium under the impact of global climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {11978-11993}, pmid = {36103069}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Dendrobium ; Climate Change ; China ; *Alkaloids ; *Plants, Medicinal ; }, abstract = {Dendrobium is a valuable traditional Chinese herb that contains active ingredients such as polysaccharides and alkaloids that have anti-aging, antioxidant, and immunomodulating effects. The appropriate distribution range of Dendrobium should be predicted from the perspective of ecological niche theory in order to preserve and utilize medicinal plant resources. In this study, Dendrobium nobile, Dendrobium officinale, and Dendrobium moniliforme were selected to predict the potential suitable distributions and ecological niche shifts. A comparison of 19 environmental variables of the three Dendrobium species revealed three climatic factors that differed significantly when the species were compared two at a time. The principal component analysis was carried out in order to screen seven climatic factors for ecological niche shift analysis. All three Dendrobium species were found to have a very similar ecological niche, but with a relatively small range of variability regarding certain climatic factors. Finally, the current and future suitable areas for these three Dendrobium species in China were predicted using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS using the two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). Overall, the analysis of the climatic factors' comparisons, niche shift, and current and future suitable areas of these three Dendrobium species provides a basis for medicinal plant resource conservation and utilization, and our methods could be applied to the study of other similar valuable medicinal plants.}, }
@article {pmid36102389, year = {2022}, author = {Raulino, JBS and Silveira, CS and E L Neto, I}, title = {Eutrophication risk assessment of a large reservoir in the Brazilian semiarid region under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {94}, number = {4}, pages = {e20201689}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202220201689}, pmid = {36102389}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Eutrophication ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Risk Assessment ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {The present study assesses the risk of eutrophication of a large semiarid reservoir under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for three future periods and different conditions of influent total phosphorus (TP) concentration and reservoir withdrawal. An integrated approach coupling climate, hydrological and water quality models was proposed for forecasting the climate change impacts on the trophic condition of the reservoir. The projected TP concentrations were organized as probability-based cumulative distribution functions to quantify the risk of eutrophication. The results indicated changes of eutrophication status in the three future periods, with the end of the 21st century experiencing the highest impacts on water quality. On the other hand, major reductions both in the inlet TP concentration and the reservoir withdrawal are necessary to significantly improve the trophic status and minimize the risk of eutrophication. The results also showed that the dry period is more susceptible to eutrophication than the rainy period, suggesting that tropical semiarid reservoirs are more vulnerable to eutrophication under climate change than reservoirs in other regions of the world. The proposed approach and model results are important to better understand the impact of climate change on reservoir water quality and improve water resources management in tropical semiarid regions.}, }
@article {pmid36101910, year = {2022}, author = {Salgueirinho, C and Pereira, H}, title = {The anesthesiologist and global climate change: An ethical obligation to act and being scientifically rigorous.}, journal = {European journal of anaesthesiology}, volume = {39}, number = {10}, pages = {840}, doi = {10.1097/EJA.0000000000001734}, pmid = {36101910}, issn = {1365-2346}, mesh = {*Anesthesiologists ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Job Satisfaction ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid36100819, year = {2022}, author = {Gauff, RPM and Lejeusne, C and Greff, S and Loisel, S and Bohner, O and Davoult, D}, title = {Impact of in Situ Simulated Climate Change on Communities and Non-Indigenous Species: Two Climates, Two Responses.}, journal = {Journal of chemical ecology}, volume = {48}, number = {9-10}, pages = {761-771}, pmid = {36100819}, issn = {1573-1561}, support = {Bourse Doctorale//Sorbonne Universit&#xe9; - Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle (Ecole Doctorale 227)/ ; Ecosphere Continentale et Coti&#xe8;re (Ec2Co)//Ecosphere Continentale et Coti&#xe8;re (Ec2Co)/ ; PEPS programm EcoMob 'InPor'//Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE) - Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Biomass ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change constitutes a major challenge for marine urban ecosystems and ocean warming will likely strongly affect local communities. Non-Indigenous Species (NIS) have been shown to often have higher heat resistance than natives, but studies investigating how forthcoming global warming might affect them in marine urban environments remain scarce, especially in Situ studies. Here we used an in Situ warming experiment in a NW Mediterranean (warm temperate) and a NE Atlantic (cold temperate) marina to see how global warming might affect recruited communities in the near future. In both marinas, warming resulted in significantly different community structure, lower biomass, and more empty space compared to control. However, while in the warm temperate marina, NIS showed an increased surface cover, it was reduced in the cold temperate one. Metabolomic analyses on Bugula neritina in the Atlantic marina revealed potential heat stress experienced by this introduced bryozoan and a potential link between heat stress and the expression of a halogenated alkaloid, Caelestine A. The present results might indicate that the effects of global warming on the prevalence of NIS may differ between geographical provinces, which could be investigated by larger scale studies.}, }
@article {pmid36096485, year = {2023}, author = {Zepernick, BN and Wilhelm, SW and Bullerjahn, GS and Paerl, HW}, title = {Climate change and the aquatic continuum: A cyanobacterial comeback story.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology reports}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {3-12}, pmid = {36096485}, issn = {1758-2229}, support = {P01 ES028939/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Cyanobacteria/physiology ; Fresh Water/microbiology ; Photosynthesis ; }, abstract = {Billions of years ago, the Earth's waters were dominated by cyanobacteria. These microbes amassed to such formidable numbers, they ushered in a new era-starting with the Great Oxidation Event-fuelled by oxygenic photosynthesis. Throughout the following eon, cyanobacteria ceded portions of their global aerobic power to new photoautotrophs with the rise of eukaryotes (i.e. algae and higher plants), which co-existed with cyanobacteria in aquatic ecosystems. Yet while cyanobacteria's ecological success story is one of the most notorious within our planet's biogeochemical history, scientists to this day still seek to unlock the secrets of their triumph. Now, the Anthropocene has ushered in a new era fuelled by excessive nutrient inputs and greenhouse gas emissions, which are again reshaping the Earth's biomes. In response, we are experiencing an increase in global cyanobacterial bloom distribution, duration, and frequency, leading to unbalanced, and in many instances degraded, ecosystems. A critical component of the cyanobacterial resurgence is the freshwater-marine continuum: which serves to transport blooms, and the toxins they produce, on the premise that "water flows downhill". Here, we identify drivers contributing to the cyanobacterial comeback and discuss future implications in the context of environmental and human health along the aquatic continuum. This Minireview addresses the overlooked problem of the freshwater to marine continuum and the effects of nutrients and toxic cyanobacterial blooms moving along these waters. Marine and freshwater research have historically been conducted in isolation and independently of one another. Yet, this approach fails to account for the interchangeable transit of nutrients and biology through and between these freshwater and marine systems, a phenomenon that is becoming a major problem around the globe. This Minireview highlights what we know and the challenges that lie ahead.}, }
@article {pmid36094840, year = {2022}, author = {Rasmussen, SA and Jamieson, DJ}, title = {Protecting Pregnant People and Babies from the Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {387}, number = {11}, pages = {957-959}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp2210221}, pmid = {36094840}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Medicine/methods ; Female ; *Health ; Humans ; Infant ; Pregnancy ; *Public Health Practice ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid36094062, year = {2022}, author = {Phuong, J and Riches, NO and Calzoni, L and Datta, G and Duran, D and Lin, AY and Singh, RP and Solomonides, AE and Whysel, NY and Kavuluru, R}, title = {Toward informatics-enabled preparedness for natural hazards to minimize health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {2161-2167}, pmid = {36094062}, issn = {1527-974X}, support = {U24 TR002306/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; UL1 TR001998/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Informatics ; }, abstract = {Natural hazards (NHs) associated with climate change have been increasing in frequency and intensity. These acute events impact humans both directly and through their effects on social and environmental determinants of health. Rather than relying on a fully reactive incident response disposition, it is crucial to ramp up preparedness initiatives for worsening case scenarios. In this perspective, we review the landscape of NH effects for human health and explore the potential of health informatics to address associated challenges, specifically from a preparedness angle. We outline important components in a health informatics agenda for hazard preparedness involving hazard-disease associations, social determinants of health, and hazard forecasting models, and call for novel methods to integrate them toward projecting healthcare needs in the wake of a hazard. We describe potential gaps and barriers in implementing these components and propose some high-level ideas to address them.}, }
@article {pmid36092031, year = {2022}, author = {Sorvali, J and Liu, X and Kaseva, J}, title = {Climate change opportunities reduce farmers' risk perception: Extension of the value-belief-norm theory in the context of Finnish agriculture.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {939201}, pmid = {36092031}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Global agriculture faces severe challenges due to climate change. For boreal agriculture, climate change might also bring opportunities as the growing season lengthens, if the risks of climate change are managed properly. Agricultural production is a source of greenhouse gases, while agricultural land has also a great possibility to mitigate climate change as a carbon sink. Farmers are the central group for implementing these actions. Their views and beliefs contribute to their corresponding pro-environmental agricultural behavior. This research is based on the theory of value-belief-norm (VBN) as a predictive model of pro-environmental agricultural behavior. We extend the theory by studying how opportunities caused by climate change affect pro-environmental behavior in agriculture and present differences between farmer groups and experiment with the longitudinal possibilities of the theoretical model. Based on the structured survey responses from 4,401 farmers in Finland in 2018 and 2000 responses in 2020, we found that all the elements of VBN theory did help to predict intention for climate change mitigation, among which felt possibility to perform mitigation practices was the strongest predictor while risk perception was rather an unimportant one. Furthermore, opportunities caused directly or indirectly by climate change have an effect on Finnish farmer's implementation of mitigation practices. Therefore, future efforts in agricultural research and policy in Finland should concentrate to bring forth concrete farm-level mitigation practices with proven environmental benefits and the direct and indirect opportunities should be given more attention.}, }
@article {pmid36091540, year = {2022}, author = {Weinmayr, G and Forastiere, F}, title = {A health-based long term vision to face air pollution and climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {947971}, pmid = {36091540}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36091538, year = {2022}, author = {Valdivielso Martínez, E and Houge Mackenzie, S}, title = {Climate change and adventure guiding: The role of nature connection in guide wellbeing.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {946093}, pmid = {36091538}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environment ; Humans ; Tourism ; }, abstract = {Ecological challenges are quickly shaping the future of the tourism industry with an increasing focus on how to develop more sustainable adventure tourism practises. Adventure guides play an important role in this transition and in shaping client experiences, however there is a need to better understand how climate change may have important impacts on guides' wellbeing. This study explored adventure guides' experiences of nature connectedness and potential links between climate change, nature connexion, and wellbeing for adventure guides. Semi-structured qualitative interviews (x = 11) with adventure guides were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis to explore these relationships. Adventure guides reported experiencing meaningful connexions and relationships with the natural environments in which they worked, while also highlighting why not all types of nature nor time spent outdoors facilitated this connexion. Guides that reported being more connected to nature also reported a higher sense of environmental responsibility, and guides described how this often created "ethical dilemmas" in seeking to resolve tensions between their deep connexion to nature and unsustainable practises that their guiding work often entailed. Analysis also highlighted the value and wellbeing guides derived from sharing their love of nature with clients. These findings expand emerging theoretical models of adventure guide wellbeing, and suggest a range of practises that can support a more ecologically sustainable adventure tourism industry.}, }
@article {pmid36090522, year = {2022}, author = {Gulati, M}, title = {The role of the preventive cardiologist in addressing climate change.}, journal = {American journal of preventive cardiology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {100375}, pmid = {36090522}, issn = {2666-6677}, }
@article {pmid36090097, year = {2022}, author = {Russell, KA and McFrederick, QS}, title = {Floral nectar microbial communities exhibit seasonal shifts associated with extreme heat: Potential implications for climate change and plant-pollinator interactions.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {931291}, pmid = {36090097}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Floral nectar contains vital nutrients for pollinators, including sugars, amino acids, proteins, and secondary compounds. As pollinators forage, they inoculate nectar with bacteria and fungi. These microbes can colonize nectaries and alter nectar properties, including volume and chemistry. Abiotic factors, such as temperature, can influence microbial community structure and nectar traits. Considering current climate change conditions, studying the effects of increased temperature on ecosystem processes like pollination is ever more important. In a manipulative field experiment, we used a passive-heating technique to increase the ambient temperature of a California native plant, Penstemon heterophyllus, to test the hypothesis that temperatures elevated an average of 0.5°C will affect nectar properties and nectar-inhabiting microbial communities. We found that passive-heat treatment did not affect nectar properties or microbial communities. Penstemon heterophyllus fruit set also was not affected by passive-heat treatments, and neither was capsule mass, however plants subjected to heat treatments produced significantly more seeds than control. Although we conducted pollinator surveys, no pollinators were recorded for the duration of our experiment. A naturally occurring extreme temperature event did, however, have large effects on nectar sugars and nectar-inhabiting microbial communities. The initially dominant Lactobacillus sp. was replaced by Sediminibacterium, while Mesorhizobium, and Acinetobacter persisted suggesting that extreme temperatures can interrupt nectar microbiome community assembly. Our study indicates that the quality and attractiveness of nectar under climate change conditions could have implications on plant-pollinator interactions.}, }
@article {pmid36089267, year = {2022}, author = {Arce-Valdés, LR and Sánchez-Guillén, RA}, title = {The evolutionary outcomes of climate-change-induced hybridization in insect populations.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {54}, number = {}, pages = {100966}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2022.100966}, pmid = {36089267}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Hybridization, Genetic ; *Climate Change ; Biological Evolution ; Insecta/genetics ; }, abstract = {Rapid range shifts are one of the most frequent responses to climate change in insect populations. Climate-induced range shifts can lead to the breakdown of isolation barriers, and thus, to an increase in hybridization and introgression. Long-term evolutionary consequences such as the formation of hybrid zones, introgression, speciation, and extinction have been predicted as a result of climate-induced hybridization. Our review shows that there has been an increase in the number of published cases of climate-induced hybridization in insects, and that the formation of hybrid zones and introgression seems to be, at the moment, the most frequent outcomes. Although introgression is considered positive, since it increases species' genetic diversity, in the long term, it could lead to negative outcomes such as species fusion or genetic swamping.}, }
@article {pmid36087675, year = {2023}, author = {Xian, C and Gong, C and Lu, F and Wu, H and Ouyang, Z}, title = {The evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions from sewage treatment with urbanization: Understanding the opportunities and challenges for climate change mitigation in China's low-carbon pilot city, Shenzhen.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {855}, number = {}, pages = {158629}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158629}, pmid = {36087675}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Gases ; Sewage ; Greenhouse Effect ; Climate Change ; Carbon ; Urbanization ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Cities ; China ; }, abstract = {Sewage treatment provides a pathway for anthropogenic water purification that can address the growth in domestic sewage volumes due to urbanization and protect the aquatic environment. However, the process can also generate greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are sometimes termed "unrestricted" GHG emissions and are neglected by low carbon policies. A combination of a life cycle analysis (LCA), data envelopment analysis (DEA), and questionnaire survey was used to evaluate sewage treatment related GHG emissions and assess the GHG emission reduction efficiencies during 2005-2020, as well as determine the opinions of environmental managers regarding the threats to climate change mitigation posed by sewage treatment in the low carbon pilot city of Shenzhen, China. There were four main results. (1) GHG emissions from sewage treatment plants (STPs) in Shenzhen increased gradually from 0.22 Mt. CO2-eq in 2005 to 1.16 Mt. CO2-eq in 2020 with an emission intensity ranging from 0.41 to 0.58 kg CO2-eq/m[3], mainly due to the indirect emissions from sludge disposal (35-57 %). Longgang administrative district was the hotspot of these GHG emissions during the study period. (2) Reductions in GHG emissions were achieved in most years since 2012 with the greatest efficiency observed in 2020. (3) Beyond the environmental managers' perceptions of the challenges in GHG mitigation, future sewage treatment may create the potential for more substantial GHG emission growth compared to the emissions from energy combustion, due to policy deficiencies, growth in sewage volumes, and the enforcement of stricter effluent quality control. (4) Several opportunities to overcome these barriers were considered including innovational environmental management, planting of constructed wetlands, and the promotion of water-saving behavior. This case study of Shenzhen has valuable implications for the synergistic governance of water pollution and climate change mitigation in megacities in China and elsewhere, enabling a move towards a future carbon-neutral society.}, }
@article {pmid36087603, year = {2022}, author = {Lawrance, EL and Jennings, N and Kioupi, V and Thompson, R and Diffey, J and Vercammen, A}, title = {Psychological responses, mental health, and sense of agency for the dual challenges of climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic in young people in the UK: an online survey study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {e726-e738}, pmid = {36087603}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *COVID-19/epidemiology/psychology ; Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Mental Health ; Pandemics ; Quality of Life ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are both significant and pressing global challenges, posing threats to public health and wellbeing. Young people are particularly vulnerable to the distress both crises can cause, but understanding of the varied psychological responses to both issues is poor. We aimed to investigate these responses and their links with mental health conditions and feelings of agency.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted an online survey between Aug 5 and Oct 26, 2020, targeting a diverse sample of young people (aged 16-24 years, n=530) in the UK. The survey was distributed using a combination of a survey panel (panel sample) and direct approaches to youth groups and schools who shared the survey with young people in their networks (community sample). We collected data on respondents' psychological responses to both climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic, their sense of agency to respond to each crisis, and the range of impacts on their lives. We also collected demographics data and screened for mental health and wellbeing indicators. We used non-parametric tests for most statistical comparisons. For paired samples, we used Wilcoxon's signed-rank test, and used Mann-Whitney U-tests or Kruskal-Wallis tests for two or more independent samples. Summed scale scores were considered as interval-level data and analysed with Student's t tests and ANOVAs. Effect sizes are reported as Cohen's d and partial eta-squared (&#x3b7;&#xb7;[2]p), respectively.<br><br>FINDINGS: After excluding 18 suspected bots and 94 incomplete responses, 530 responses were retained for analysis. Of the 518 respondents who provided demographic data, 63% were female, 71&#xb7;4% were White, and the mean family affluence score was 8&#xb7;22 (SD 2&#xb7;29). Most participants (n=343; 70%) did not report a history of diagnosis or treatment for a mental health disorder, but mental health scores indicated a common experience of (relatively mild) symptoms of anxiety, depression, and stress. Although UK youth reported more life disruption and concern for their future due to the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change was associated with significantly greater distress overall, particularly for individuals with low levels of generalised anxiety. The COVID-19 pandemic was more associated with feelings of anxiety, isolation, disconnection, and frustration; distress around loss and grief; and effects on quality of life. Climate change was more likely to evoke emotions such as interest and engagement, guilt, shame, anger, and disgust. The greater distress attributed to climate change overall was due, in particular, to higher levels of guilt, sense of personal responsibility, and greater distress triggered by upsetting media coverage. Agency to address climate change was associated with greater climate distress, but pandemic-related distress and agency were unrelated.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are affecting the wellbeing of UK young people in distinct ways, with implications for health service, policy, and research responses. There is a need for mental health practitioners, policy makers, and other societal actors to account for the complex relationship between climate agency, distress, and mental wellbeing in young people.<br><br>FUNDING: Imperial College London.}, }
@article {pmid36087601, year = {2022}, author = {Longden, T and Kompas, T and Norman, R and Vardoulakis, S}, title = {Considering health damages and co-benefits in climate change policy assessment.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {e712-e713}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00196-6}, pmid = {36087601}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid36086801, year = {2023}, author = {Zeng, Y and Rao, Y and Xu, Z}, title = {Anticipated cancer burden of low individual fruit and vegetable consumption under climate change: A modelling study in China.}, journal = {The International journal of health planning and management}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {149-161}, doi = {10.1002/hpm.3575}, pmid = {36086801}, issn = {1099-1751}, mesh = {*Vegetables ; Fruit ; Diet ; Climate Change ; *Neoplasms ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dietary patterns with a high intake of fruits and vegetables (FV) are associated with a reduced risk of various cancers. It is not yet clear where and to what extent a decline in crop productivity caused by climate change may modify the distribution of related cancer burdens through reducing FV consumption in China. To design policies and interventions aimed at improving FV intake, regional monitoring is required on how consumption-changing factors might impact the associated cancer burdens by socio-demographic subpopulations.<br><br>METHODS: A microsimulation study was conducted from a societal perspective to project the effects of cancers associated with inadequate FV intake attributable to climate change. We linked the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade to a health modelling framework for obesity, gastric cancer, lung cancer, and oesophageal cancer in a close-to-reality synthetic population.<br><br>RESULTS: In the presence of climate constantly change, the relative reduction in FV consumption would induce an additional 9.73 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) nationally over the period 2010-2050 ([CrI]: 7.83-12.13). The climate change-induced cancer burden is projected to disproportionately affect socio-demographic index regions from 0.65 to 5.06 million DALYs.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Effects of climate change on FV consumption are anticipated to exacerbate intra-regional inequalities in the associated cancer burdens of China by 2050. By quantitatively analysing the impact of such dietary changes on regional health in light of climate change, our research can inform the design of public health interventions for heterogeneous populations, as health impact assessments based solely on the population as a whole cannot reflect significant differences across subpopulations.}, }
@article {pmid36085326, year = {2022}, author = {Li, L and Zhang, Y and Zhou, T and Wang, K and Wang, C and Wang, T and Yuan, L and An, K and Zhou, C and Lü, G}, title = {Mitigation of China's carbon neutrality to global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {5315}, pmid = {36085326}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; China ; *Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Projecting mitigations of carbon neutrality from individual countries in relation to future global warming is of great importance for depicting national climate responsibility but is poorly quantified. Here, we show that China's carbon neutrality (CNCN) can individually mitigate global warming by 0.48 °C and 0.40 °C, which account for 14% and 9% of the global warming over the long term under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Further incorporating changes in CH4 and N2O emissions in association with CNCN together will alleviate global warming by 0.21 °C and 0.32 °C for SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 over the long term, and even by 0.18 °C for SSP2-4.5 over the mid-term, but no significant impacts are shown for all SSPs in the near term. Divergent responses in alleviated warming are seen at regional scales. The results provide a useful reference for the global stocktake, which assesses the collective progress towards the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.}, }
@article {pmid36084741, year = {2022}, author = {Facciola, N and Houde, M and Muir, DCG and Ferguson, SH and McKinney, MA}, title = {Feeding and contaminant patterns of sub-arctic and arctic ringed seals: Potential insight into climate change-contaminant interactions.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {313}, number = {}, pages = {120108}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2022.120108}, pmid = {36084741}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; Climate Change ; Fatty Acids ; *Fluorocarbons ; Halogenated Diphenyl Ethers/analysis ; *Mercury/analysis ; *Metals, Heavy ; Persistent Organic Pollutants ; *Phoca ; }, abstract = {To provide insight into how climate-driven diet shifts may impact contaminant exposures of Arctic species, we compared feeding ecology and contaminant concentrations in ringed seals (Pusa hispida) from two Canadian sub-Arctic (Nain at 56.5°N, Arviat at 61.1°N) and two Arctic sites (Sachs Harbour at 72.0 °N, Resolute Bay at 74.7 °N). In the sub-Arctic, empirical evidence of changing prey fish communities has been documented, while less community change has been reported in the Arctic to date, suggesting current sub-Arctic conditions may be a harbinger of future Arctic conditions. Here, Indigenous partners collected tissues from subsistence-harvested ringed seals in 2018. Blubber fatty acids (FAs) and muscle stable isotopes (δ[15]N, δ[13]C) indicated dietary patterns, while measured contaminants included heavy metals (e.g., total mercury (THg)), legacy persistent organic pollutants (e.g., dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs)), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and per-/polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs). FA signatures are distinct between sub-Arctic and Resolute Bay seals, likely related to higher consumption of southern prey species including capelin (Mallotus villosus) in the sub-Arctic but on-going feeding on Arctic species in Resolute Bay. Sachs Harbour ringed seals show FA overlap with all locations, possibly consuming both southern and endemic Arctic species. Negative δ[13]C estimates for PFAS models suggest that more pelagic, sub-Arctic type prey (e.g., capelin) increases PFAS concentrations, whereas the reverse occurs for, e.g., THg, ΣPBDE, and ΣDDT. Inconsistent directionality of δ[15]N estimates in the models likely reflects baseline isotopic variation not trophic position differences. Adjusting for the influence of diet suggests that if Arctic ringed seal diets become more like sub-Arctic seals due to climate change, diet-driven increases may occur for newer contaminants like PFASs, but not for more legacy contaminants. Nonetheless, temporal trends studies are still needed, as are investigations into the potential confounding influence of baseline isotope variation in spatial studies of contaminants in Arctic biota.}, }
@article {pmid36083896, year = {2022}, author = {Hai, Z and Perlman, RL}, title = {Extreme weather events and the politics of climate change attribution.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {8}, number = {36}, pages = {eabo2190}, pmid = {36083896}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly visible in the form of more severe wildfires, hurricanes, and flooding. As the science linking these disasters to climate change has grown more robust, it has led to pressure on politicians to acknowledge the connection. While an analysis of U.S. Congressional press releases reveals a slight increase in politicians' willingness to do so, many remain hesitant. Why? We hypothesize that climate change attribution can backfire, harming politicians' popularity and undermining their ability to adapt to the visible manifestations of climate change. We conduct an original survey experiment on a representative sample of American adults and show that when a politician links wildfires to climate change, Republicans perceive the official as less capable of addressing weather-related disasters. In addition, Republicans become less supportive of efforts to protect against similar disasters in the future. Our findings shed light on the potential trade-offs of conveying the link between climate change and its impacts.}, }
@article {pmid36083624, year = {2022}, author = {Koch, M and Matzke, I and Huhn, S and Gunga, HC and Maggioni, MA and Munga, S and Obor, D and Sié, A and Boudo, V and Bunker, A and Dambach, P and Bärnighausen, T and Barteit, S}, title = {Wearables for Measuring Health Effects of Climate Change-Induced Weather Extremes: Scoping Review.}, journal = {JMIR mHealth and uHealth}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e39532}, pmid = {36083624}, issn = {2291-5222}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Exercise ; Humans ; Sleep ; *Wearable Electronic Devices ; Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although climate change is one of the biggest global health threats, individual-level and short-term data on direct exposure and health impacts are still scarce. Wearable electronic devices (wearables) present a potential solution to this research gap. Wearables have become widely accepted in various areas of health research for ecological momentary assessment, and some studies have used wearables in the field of climate change and health. However, these studies vary in study design, demographics, and outcome variables, and existing research has not been mapped.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: In this review, we aimed to map existing research on wearables used to detect direct health impacts and individual exposure during climate change-induced weather extremes, such as heat waves or wildfires.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a scoping review according to the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) framework and systematically searched 6 databases (PubMed [MEDLINE], IEEE Xplore, CINAHL [EBSCOhost], WoS, Scopus, Ovid [MEDLINE], and Google Scholar). The search yielded 1871 results. Abstracts and full texts were screened by 2 reviewers (MK and IM) independently using the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The inclusion criteria comprised studies published since 2010 that used off-the-shelf wearables that were neither invasive nor obtrusive to the user in the setting of climate change-related weather extremes. Data were charted using a structured form, and the study outcomes were narratively synthesized.<br><br>RESULTS: The review included 55,284 study participants using wearables in 53 studies. Most studies were conducted in upper-middle-income and high-income countries (50/53, 94%) in urban environments (25/53, 47%) or in a climatic chamber (19/53, 36%) and assessed the health effects of heat exposure (52/53, 98%). The majority reported adverse health effects of heat exposure on sleep, physical activity, and heart rate. The remaining studies assessed occupational heat stress or compared individual- and area-level heat exposure. In total, 26% (14/53) of studies determined that all examined wearables were valid and reliable for measuring health parameters during heat exposure when compared with standard methods.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Wearables have been used successfully in large-scale research to measure the health implications of climate change-related weather extremes. More research is needed in low-income countries and vulnerable populations with pre-existing conditions. In addition, further research could focus on the health impacts of other climate change-related conditions and the effectiveness of adaptation measures at the individual level to such weather extremes.}, }
@article {pmid36081266, year = {2022}, author = {Miezïte, LE and Ameztegui, A and De Cáceres, M and Coll, L and Morán-Ordóñez, A and Vega-García, C and Rodrigues, M}, title = {Trajectories of wildfire behavior under climate change. Can forest management mitigate the increasing hazard?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {322}, number = {}, pages = {116134}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116134}, pmid = {36081266}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Carbon/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fires ; Forests ; Water ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Mediterranean forests and fire regimes are closely intertwined. Global change is likely to alter both forest dynamics and wildfire activity, ultimately threatening the provision of ecosystem services and posing greater risks to society. In this paper we evaluate future wildfire behavior by coupling climate projections with simulation models of forest dynamics and wildfire hazard. To do so, we explore different forest management scenarios reflecting different narratives related to EU forestry (promotion of carbon stocks, reduction of water vulnerability, biomass production and business-as-usual) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate pathways in the period 2020-2100. We used as a study model pure submediterranean Pinus nigra forests of central Catalonia (NE Spain). Forest dynamics were simulated from the 3rd National Forest Inventory (143 stands) using SORTIE-nd software based on climate projections under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The climate products were also used to estimate fuel moisture conditions (both live and dead) and wind speed. Fuel parameters and fire behavior were then simulated, selecting crown fire initiation potential and rate of spread as key indicators. The results revealed consistent trade-offs between forest dynamics, climate and wildfire. Despite the clear influence exerted by climate, forest management modulates fire behavior, resulting in different trends depending on the climatic pathway. In general, the maintenance of current practices would result in the highest rates of crown fire activity, while management for water vulnerability reduction is postulated as the best alternative to surmount the increasingly hazardous conditions envisaged in RCP 8.5.}, }
@article {pmid36078784, year = {2022}, author = {Shin, Y and Kim, S and Kim, S}, title = {Searching for New Human Behavior Model in the Climate Change Age: Analyzing the Impact of Risk Perception and Government Factors on Intention-Action Consistency in Particulate Matter Mitigation.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {36078784}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Government ; Humans ; *Intention ; Particulate Matter ; Perception ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {This study aims to analyze factors influencing citizens' intentions to take protective action against particulate matter (PM) and their actual actions in response to PM. There were few research on the role of government factors and the issue of intention-action inconsistency in the context of PM mitigation action. Therefore, this study set not only variables in the risk perception paradigm but also ones in government factors as independent variables, while intention and action in response to PM were set as dependent variables. This study's analysis was based on survey data collected from Korean people. For representativeness of the samples, this study adopted the quota sampling method, considering region, gender, and age. Five hundred respondents finished the survey. To verify the hypotheses, this study used regression and binomial logistic analysis. Analysis showed that (1) negative emotions, trust, knowledge, government competency, policy satisfaction, and policy awareness had significant effects on intention and action in response to PM, and (2) perceived benefits only affected intention, whereas government accountability only affected action. Logistic analysis showed that there were groups in which intentions and actions did not match. Negative emotions and government competence induce intention-action consistency, whereas the perceived benefits and trust in government tend to encourage inconsistency. Knowledge is a variable that induces both consistency and inconsistency in the intention-action relationship. The determinant structures of independent variables affecting the likelihood of belonging to the four groups differed.}, }
@article {pmid36078681, year = {2022}, author = {Guerrero-Lucendo, A and García-Orenes, F and Navarro-Pedreño, J and Alba-Hidalgo, D}, title = {General Mapping of the Environmental Performance in Climate Change Mitigation of Spanish Universities through a Standardized Carbon Footprint Calculation Tool.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {36078681}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint ; Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Humans ; Universities ; }, abstract = {Higher education institutions (HEIs) can be considered role models of small cities that contribute to the fight against climate change. Therefore, assessing their own carbon footprints (CFs) and drawing conclusions gives significance to this study. In this study, 77 CFs from 14 HEIs were obtained through a tool developed by the Spanish Government. They were analyzed along with different variables and recalculated using the same standardized activity ratios. As a result, a general mapping of the environmental performance in climate change mitigation of Spanish universities has been obtained. Although there is an overall decrease in total CF (72.7%), direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Scope 1) remain stable, while the decrease is due to the reduction of emissions caused by electricity consumption (Scope 2) through the use electricity suppliers that guarantee the energy provided is generated from renewable sources. A lack of consensus in the definition of "student" and "employee", used for the activity ratios, causes large variations in the relative CF values. For worldwide benchmarking of HEIs' climate change performance, CF can be a valid indicator only if they: (1) include standardized Scope 1 and 2 emission sources, (2) use the same emission factors, and (3) calculate activity ratios from standardized functional units.}, }
@article {pmid36078370, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, J and Tong, Z and Ji, Z and Gong, Y and Sun, Y}, title = {Effects of Climate Change Knowledge on Adolescents' Attitudes and Willingness to Participate in Carbon Neutrality Education.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {36078370}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Achievement ; Adolescent ; Attitude ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Knowledge ; }, abstract = {The achievement of carbon neutrality has become increasingly important. Therefore, it the use of education to increase public understanding of carbon neutrality and facilitate low-carbon behaviors is urgent. Climate change knowledge is an effective measure to promote people's interest and enthusiasm for specific educational projects. The present study analyzed the effects of climate change knowledge on adolescents' attitudes and their willingness to participate in carbon neutrality education and validated the mediating effect of environmental responsibility. The findings showed that climate change knowledge improves adolescents' attitudes toward carbon neutrality education and that environmental responsibility plays a mediating role in this. The findings provide insightful implications for carbon neutrality related policymaking and education promotion.}, }
@article {pmid36077978, year = {2022}, author = {Wu, Y and Tian, W and Chen, C and Ye, Q and Yang, L and Jiang, J}, title = {Adaptive Responses of the Sea Anemone Heteractis crispa to the Interaction of Acidification and Global Warming.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {12}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {36077978}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {2021KY0056//Guangxi Normal University/ ; ERESEP2021Z10//Guangxi Normal University/ ; }, abstract = {Ocean acidification and warming are two of the most important threats to the existence of marine organisms and are predicted to co-occur in oceans. The present work evaluated the effects of acidification (AC: 24 ± 0.1 °C and 900 μatm CO2), warming (WC: 30 ± 0.1 °C and 450 μatm CO2), and their combination (CC: 30 ± 0.1 °C and 900 μatm CO2) on the sea anemone, Heteractis crispa, from the aspects of photosynthetic apparatus (maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PS II), chlorophyll level, and Symbiodiniaceae density) and sterol metabolism (cholesterol content and total sterol content). In a 15-day experiment, acidification alone had no apparent effect on the photosynthetic apparatus, but did affect sterol levels. Upregulation of their chlorophyll level is an important strategy for symbionts to adapt to high partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2). However, after warming stress, the benefits of high pCO2 had little effect on stress tolerance in H. crispa. Indeed, thermal stress was the dominant driver of the deteriorating health of H. crispa. Cholesterol and total sterol contents were significantly affected by all three stress conditions, although there was no significant change in the AC group on day 3. Thus, cholesterol or sterol levels could be used as important indicators to evaluate the impact of climate change on cnidarians. Our findings suggest that H. crispa might be relatively insensitive to the impact of ocean acidification, whereas increased temperature in the future ocean might impair viability of H. crispa.}, }
@article {pmid36076071, year = {2022}, author = {Maier, PA and Vandergast, AG and Ostoja, SM and Aguilar, A and Bohonak, AJ}, title = {Landscape genetics of a sub-alpine toad: climate change predicted to induce upward range shifts via asymmetrical migration corridors.}, journal = {Heredity}, volume = {129}, number = {5}, pages = {257-272}, pmid = {36076071}, issn = {1365-2540}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Bufonidae/genetics ; Ecosystem ; Soil ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have a major hydrological impact on the core breeding habitat and migration corridors of many amphibians in the twenty-first century. The Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus canorus) is a species of meadow-specializing amphibian endemic to the high-elevation Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. Despite living entirely on federal lands, it has recently faced severe extirpations, yet our understanding of climatic influences on population connectivity is limited. In this study, we used a previously published double-digest RADseq dataset along with numerous remotely sensed habitat features in a landscape genetics framework to answer two primary questions in Yosemite National Park: (1) Which fine-scale climate, topographic, soil, and vegetation features most facilitate meadow connectivity? (2) How is climate change predicted to influence both the magnitude and net asymmetry of genetic migration? We developed an approach for simultaneously modeling multiple toad migration paths, akin to circuit theory, except raw environmental features can be separately considered. Our workflow identified the most likely migration corridors between meadows and used the unique cubist machine learning approach to fit and forecast environmental models of connectivity. We identified the permuted modeling importance of numerous snowpack-related features, such as runoff and groundwater recharge. Our results highlight the importance of considering phylogeographic structure, and asymmetrical migration in landscape genetics. We predict an upward elevational shift for this already high-elevation species, as measured by the net vector of anticipated genetic movement, and a north-eastward shift in species distribution via the network of genetic migration corridors across the park.}, }
@article {pmid36076056, year = {2022}, author = {Zobeidi, T and Yaghoubi, J and Yazdanpanah, M}, title = {Exploring the motivational roots of farmers' adaptation to climate change‑induced water stress through incentives or norms.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {15208}, pmid = {36076056}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Dehydration ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Motivation ; Pilot Projects ; Reproducibility of Results ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {The aim of the current study is to consider farmers' perceptions regarding the impacts of climate change on water resources and their intention toward adaptation in southwestern Iran. To this end, this study applied the theory of reasoned action and the norm activation model as well as these two models in combination. A descriptive quantitative research study was designed and conducted using cross-sectional survey methods among 250 farmers in Khuzestan province in southwestern Iran, selected through multistage sampling methods. Research data were collected through a structured questionnaire whose validity was confirmed by a panel of experts; scale reliability of the questionnaire was approved through a pilot study. Structural equation modeling analysis revealed that the norm activation model, the theory of reasoned action, and a model integrating the two can predict 32, 42, and 47%, respectively, of changes in farmers' intention toward performing climate-change adaptation activities. In the combined model, personal norm, subjective norm, and attitude were able to influence the farmers' intention to perform adaptive behaviors. Attitude towards adaptation is the most powerful predictor in explaining intention to adaptation. Subjective norm is the most important predictors of moral norms which is the logical confirmation behind the combination of the two models. In addition, the combined model has better predicting powerful that each model separately. The research findings hold valuable implications for policymakers seeking to increase the intention of farmers to implement adaptation activities against a background of harsh climate change and water scarcity in this region of Iran.}, }
@article {pmid36075986, year = {2022}, author = {Bearer, CF and Molloy, EJ and Tessema, MT and Pak-Gorstein, S and Montecillo-Narvaez, D and Darmstadt, GL and Sampath, V and Mulkey, S and Nadeau, KC}, title = {Global climate change: the defining issue of our time for our children's health.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/s41390-022-02290-7}, pmid = {36075986}, issn = {1530-0447}, }
@article {pmid36074831, year = {2022}, author = {Armstrong McKay, DI and Staal, A and Abrams, JF and Winkelmann, R and Sakschewski, B and Loriani, S and Fetzer, I and Cornell, SE and Rockström, J and Lenton, TM}, title = {Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {377}, number = {6611}, pages = {eabn7950}, doi = {10.1126/science.abn7950}, pmid = {36074831}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global "core" tipping elements and regional "impact" tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid36074403, year = {2022}, author = {Sarquis, JA and Giraudo, AR and Cristaldi, MA and Arzamendia, V}, title = {Threatened birds, climate change, and human footprint: protected areas network in Neotropical grassland hotspot.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {94}, number = {3}, pages = {e20201773}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202220201773}, pmid = {36074403}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; *Grassland ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) and human footprint (HF) shape species spatial patterns and may affect the effectiveness of Protected Areas (PAs) network. Spatial patterns of threatened bird species of Subtropical-temperate hotspots in Southeastern South American grasslands are relevant biodiversity features to guide conservation policies. However, the PAs network covers less than 1% of grassland areas and does not overlap areas with the most suitable environmental conditions for threatened birds. Our aim was to find the most environmentally suitable areas for both current and future threatened birds (2050 and 2070) in Entre Ríos. We applied Systematic Conservation Planning protocols with Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) and ZONATION using distribution interaction function and HF as a cost. Then we overlapped binary maps to find priority areas among time periods. HF showed a more fragmented spatial configuration. The PAs network may include environmentally suitable conditions for threatened birds in CC scenarios and HF. We found areas that showed more connectivity in landscape prioritization over time and ensure high-quality environmental conditions for birds. We concluded that the effectiveness of the PAs network could be improved by overlapping priority areas. Our approach provides a knowledge base as a contribution to conservation-related decisions by considering HF and CC.}, }
@article {pmid36073606, year = {2023}, author = {Parker, ER and Boos, MD}, title = {Dermatology's call to emergency action on climate change.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {62}, number = {9}, pages = {1193-1194}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.16301}, pmid = {36073606}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Humans ; *Dermatology ; Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36073193, year = {2022}, author = {Parker, ER and Boos, MD}, title = {Dermatology's call to emergency action on climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology : JEADV}, volume = {36}, number = {10}, pages = {1681-1682}, doi = {10.1111/jdv.18416}, pmid = {36073193}, issn = {1468-3083}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Dermatology ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid36073173, year = {2022}, author = {Parker, ER and Boos, MD}, title = {Dermatology's call to emergency action on climate change.}, journal = {Pediatric dermatology}, volume = {39}, number = {5}, pages = {846-847}, doi = {10.1111/pde.15070}, pmid = {36073173}, issn = {1525-1470}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Dermatology ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid36073034, year = {2022}, author = {Parker, ER and Boos, MD}, title = {Dermatology's call to emergency action on climate change.}, journal = {The British journal of dermatology}, volume = {187}, number = {5}, pages = {782-783}, doi = {10.1111/bjd.21789}, pmid = {36073034}, issn = {1365-2133}, mesh = {Humans ; *Dermatology ; Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36070654, year = {2022}, author = {Jin, L and Kim, M and Chon, J}, title = {Modeling the resilient supply of ecosystem function for climate change adaptive management in Wetland City.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {322}, number = {}, pages = {115788}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115788}, pmid = {36070654}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Water ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Rapid urbanization causes wetland ecosystem functions to degrade worldwide. This phenomenon negatively affects the resilience of ecosystem functions in the face of unexpected impacts, particularly climate change. An approach is required for combining resilience with management in a Wetland City. This study aims to model the resilience of ecosystem functions for climate change adaptation management in a Wetland City via system dynamics from 2021 to 2100. First, we set a system boundary through expert interviews to identify the main issues in the social-ecological system of a Wetland City. Second, we constructed a social-ecological system of a Wetland City that provides ecosystem function trade-offs between flood control and wildlife habitat provisioning. Then, we simulated the resilience of ecosystem functions according to different climate change adaptative management scenarios. Finally, we determined an appropriate scenario for minimizing the impacts of ecosystem function trade-offs reinforced by climate change. As a result, we recommend that the water level should be managed such that the controlled flood water level ranges from 12 to 14 m and that 30% of the willow areas should be thinned each year. Based on these simulation results, we proposed three climate change adaptive management strategies: considering long-term plans including short-term effects, networking with multiscale community participation, and applying sustainable wetland management to urban planning. Ultimately, this study can contribute to planning and management guidelines for a Wetland City.}, }
@article {pmid36069123, year = {2023}, author = {Trowbridge, J and Goin, DE and Abrahamsson, D and Sklar, R and Woodruff, TJ}, title = {Fossil fuel is the common denominator between climate change and petrochemical exposures, and effects on women and children's health.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {368-371}, pmid = {36069123}, issn = {1879-3479}, support = {P30 ES030284/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30ES030284//Passport Foundation/ ; //JPB Foundation/ ; P30ES030284/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Female ; *Child Health ; Fossil Fuels/adverse effects ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollution ; }, }
@article {pmid36068442, year = {2022}, author = {Abshenas, M and Kamkar, B and Soltani, A and Kazemi, H}, title = {Predicting the effects of climate change on physiological parameters determining wheat yield in 2050 (case study: Golestan Province, Iran).}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {10}, pages = {734}, pmid = {36068442}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Iran ; Photosynthesis ; Temperature ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most important threats to food security. Earth's temperature is reported to increase by 1.5 to 4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, compared to the base period (1850-1900), and will continue after 2100. Different models have been used to investigate the effects of climate change on different plant responses, including the exponential downscale statistical model of SDSM. Photosynthesis, respiration, and production are some of the first components to be affected by temperature which are discussed here. This study was aimed to introduce and compare the best interpolation method of main temperatures and precipitation to simulate the rate of photosynthesis, total respiration (total growth and maintenance respiration), and dry matter production of wheat in Golestan Province under climate change. Long-term data of 38 synoptic meteorological stations were used to interpolate the main temperature variables and provide reliable maps. Then, temperature change (ΔT) was used to simulate photosynthesis, total respiration, and dry matter production using the canopy photosynthesis simulation model (Can_Phs). The results clearly showed that by changing the minimum temperature by 1.1 to 3.1 °C and the maximum temperature by 2.3 to 4 °C, the amount of wheat production in the study area will be affected in 2050. This increase in temperature can reduce the length of the growing season in autumn wheat and limit the duration of intercepting light and capturing other resources, which in turn leads to a decrease in photosynthesis and increased respiration during the growing season.}, }
@article {pmid36067670, year = {2022}, author = {Quevedo-Castro, A and Bustos-Terrones, YA and Bandala, ER and Loaiza, JG and Rangel-Peraza, JG}, title = {Modeling the effect of climate change scenarios on water quality for tropical reservoirs.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {322}, number = {}, pages = {116137}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116137}, pmid = {36067670}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Biological Oxygen Demand Analysis ; *Climate Change ; Mexico ; *Water Quality ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Impact of natural phenomena and anthropogenic activities on water quality is closely related with temperature increase and global warming. In this study, the effects of climate change scenarios on water quality forecasts were assessed through correlations, prediction algorithms, and water quality index (WQI) for tropical reservoirs. The expected trends for different water quality parameters were estimated for the 2030-2100 period in association with temperature trends to estimate water quality using historical data from a dam in Mexico. The WQI scenarios were obtained using algorithms supported by global models of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The RPCs were used to estimate water and air temperature values and extrapolate future WQI values for the water reservoir. The proposed algorithms were validated using historical information collected from 2012 to 2019 and four temperature variation intervals from 3.2 to 5.4 °C (worst forecast) to 0.9-2.3 °C (best forecast) were used for each trajectory using 0.1 °C increases to obtain the trend for each WQI parameter. Variations in the concentration (±30, ±70, and +100) of parameters related to anthropogenic activity (e.g., total suspended solids, fecal coliforms, and chemical oxygen demand) were simulated to obtain water quality scenarios for future health diagnosis of the reservoir. The results projected in the RCP models showed increasing WQI variation for lower temperature values (best forecast WQI = 74; worst forecast WQI = 71). This study offers a novel approach that integrates multiparametric statistical and WQI to help decision making on sustainable water resources management for tropical reservoirs impacted by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36066638, year = {2022}, author = {Gerwig, K}, title = {Climate Change and Healthcare: A Complicated Relationship.}, journal = {Frontiers of health services management}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {4-10}, pmid = {36066638}, issn = {0748-8157}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Health Facilities ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a crisis with a devastating impact on health. The warming atmosphere is increasing the tolls of deaths and illnesses from heat waves, extreme weather, poor air quality, insect-borne diseases, and other conditions. Healthcare is connected to climate change in a way that is not fully appreciated by many healthcare leaders-in fact, the sector generates a significant share of greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. As additional costs, healthcare providers' margins are put at risk from treating more climate-related disease and illness, supply chain disruptions, and damage from severe storms and wildfires. These connections provide a compelling rationale for healthcare executives to create more resilience in operations, lead efforts toward decarbonization, and catalyze for climate action.}, }
@article {pmid36066233, year = {2022}, author = {Riise, G and Fell, AKM and Røed, MA}, title = {[Climate change and health].}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {142}, number = {12}, pages = {}, doi = {10.4045/tidsskr.22.0326}, pmid = {36066233}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid36063549, year = {2022}, author = {DeLoughery, TG and Cunningham, DA}, title = {Lightning: Another Climate Change Threat.}, journal = {Annals of internal medicine}, volume = {175}, number = {11}, pages = {1601-1603}, doi = {10.7326/M22-1635}, pmid = {36063549}, issn = {1539-3704}, mesh = {Humans ; *Lightning ; Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid36061800, year = {2022}, author = {Shao, M and Fan, J and Ma, J and Wang, L}, title = {Identifying the natural reserve area of Cistanche salsa under the effects of multiple host plants and climate change conditions using a maximum entropy model in Xinjiang, China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {934959}, pmid = {36061800}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Cistanche salsa (C. A. Mey.) G. Beck, a holoparasitic desert medicine plant with multiple hosts, is regarded as a potential future desert economic plant. However, as a result of excessive exploitation and poaching, its wild resources have become scarce. Thus, before developing its desert economic value, this plant has to be protected, and the identification of its natural reserve is currently the top priority. However, in previous nature reserve prediction studies, the influence of host plants has been overlooked, particularly in holoparasitic plants with multiple hosts. In this study, we sought to identify the conservation areas of wild C. salsa by considering multiple host-plant interactions and climate change conditions using the MaxEnt model. Additionally, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the autocorrelation between environmental variables. The effects of the natural distribution of the host plants in terms of natural distribution from the perspective of niche similarities and extrapolation detection were considered by filtering the most influential hosts: Krascheninnikovia ceratoides (Linnaeus), Gueldenstaedt, and Nitraria sibirica Pall. Additionally, the change trends in these hosts based on climate change conditions combined with the change trends in C. salsa were used to identify a core protection area of 126483.5 km[2]. In this article, we corrected and tried to avoid some of the common mistakes found in species distribution models based on the findings of previous research and fully considered the effects of host plants for multiple-host holoparasitic plants to provide a new perspective on the prediction of holoparasitic plants and to provide scientific zoning for biodiversity conservation in desert ecosystems. This research will hopefully serve as a significant reference for decision-makers.}, }
@article {pmid36060990, year = {2022}, author = {Nannawo, AS and Lohani, TK and Eshete, AA}, title = {Envisaging the actual evapotranspiration and elucidating its effects under climate change scenarios on agrarian lands of bilate river basin in Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {8}, pages = {e10368}, pmid = {36060990}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The earth's natural water and energy systems rely on actual evapotranspiration (AET). Climate change plays a crucial role in affecting the hydrologic processes of Abayya-Chamo lake basin in Ethiopia's Rift Valley, resulting into a distributed actual evapotranspiration (DAET) system. Various studies have already been undertaken on the effects of climate change (CC) on AET but forecasted precipitation and temperature to determine space-time distribution of AET across the basin have not been studied yet. Estimates for precipitation and temperature were acquired from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa platform, using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, during 1986-2015, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 periods. WetSpass-M model was employed to investigate seasonal and annual DAET under varied climate amplitude and distribution. For the baseline period (1986-2015), the maximum annual AET was predicted to be 2815.8 mm/yr. For 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 periods, the estimated maximum annual AET for RCP4.5 scenarios was 3019.2 and 3212.1 mm/yr, respectively, while for RCP8.5 scenarios, it was 3116 and 3352.2 mm/yr, respectively. The baseline annual AET was 516.6 mm/yr, while the mid-term (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and long-term (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) models predicted mean annual AETs of 423.8 and 432 mm/yr and 429.6, and 438.5 mm/yr, respectively. Between 2041 and 2070, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios predicted a 92.8 and 84.6 mm/yr decrease in mean annual AET, respectively. The model predicted a decline in mean annual AET of 87 and 78.2 mm/yr for both scenarios in 2071 and 2100, respectively. With the exception of the basin's maximum AET, the mean annual AET for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios may decline during 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. As rainfall declines and temperature rises and the projected AET in the basin gets disrupted in the future decades. This research may add information to the water management and utilization, and a better knowledge of how climate change directly affects AET systems.}, }
@article {pmid36060878, year = {2022}, author = {Zeng, L}, title = {Chinese Public Perception of Climate Change on Social Media: An Investigation Based on Data Mining and Text Analysis.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2022}, number = {}, pages = {6294436}, pmid = {36060878}, issn = {1687-9813}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Data Mining/methods ; Humans ; Public Opinion ; *Social Media ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a serious threat to humankind. As broad public participation is required in climate change mitigation efforts, it is critical to understand how the public talk about climate change on social media. This study sets out to increase the understanding of Chinese public awareness of climate change, as well as explore the potential and limitations of social media for public engagement on climate change issues. It examines the Chinese public's discussion about climate change on social media Weibo during the last six years through data mining and text analysis. The analyses include volume analysis, keyword extraction, topic modeling, and sentiment analysis. The results indicate three main aspects of public awareness and concern regarding climate change. First, public awareness of climate change is growing in China. Second, the sentiment analysis shows that the general sentiment toward climate change is becoming more positive over time. Third, based on keyword extraction and topic modeling, the discussion on climate change shows a top-down perspective, an optimistic economic perspective, and a preference for celebrity content. The study provides a comprehensive picture of Chinese social media users' views on climate change issues, based on large-scale research data. It contributes to a better understanding of what Chinese people think about climate change on social media generally. These findings may provide government and environmental organizations with valuable insights for better climate change campaigns on social media.}, }
@article {pmid36059570, year = {2022}, author = {Blanch-Ramirez, J and Calvet-Mir, L and Aceituno-Mata, L and Benyei, P}, title = {Climate change in the Catalan Pyrenees intersects with socioeconomic factors to shape crop diversity and management.}, journal = {Agronomy for sustainable development}, volume = {42}, number = {5}, pages = {91}, pmid = {36059570}, issn = {1774-0746}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Most studies on climate change's impacts on agriculture focus on modeling techniques based on large-scale meteorological data, while few have investigated how farmer's perception of climate change's impacts can affect crop diversity and crop management practices, especially in industrialized contexts. To fill this gap, we conducted 24 semi-structured interviews in a study site located in the Catalan Pyrenees. Our results show for the first time in an industrialized context that farmers perceive multiple interrelated climate change impacts on local agroecosystems. For instance, snowfall and freeze events have decreased, which respondents associated with the increase of pests and diseases affecting both wild flora and cultivated plants. Similarly, changes in precipitation patterns lead to a perceived decrease in useful rain for agriculture. Farmers are also reporting changes in their management practices, such as increased irrigation or use of pesticides, which respond to these climatic factors but also to changes in the crops that are cultivated. Crop diversity is in decline in the area both at the species and landrace levels, especially in rainfed fields. This is mainly driven by socioeconomic factors such as agricultural abandonment or access to commercial seeds, although climate change factors such as increased pests or decreased rainfall can have an impact. Despite the crop diversity losses found, many landraces have been maintained, mainly due to their cultural value, and also new crop species have been introduced, which are now viable due to the increase in temperature. Although we focused on a specific case study, we found several trends that are also present in other contexts. Therefore, the results of this research are relevant at a global scale since they show that climate change is affecting mountain agroecosystems in industrialized contexts and may affect more drastically both agrobiodiversity and crop management practices in agroecosystems worldwide.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-022-00806-3.}, }
@article {pmid36059096, year = {2022}, author = {Carrasco, G and Almeida, AC and Falvey, M and Olmedo, GF and Taylor, P and Santibañez, F and Coops, NC}, title = {Effects of climate change on forest plantation productivity in Chile.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {24}, pages = {7391-7409}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16418}, pmid = {36059096}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Chile ; Forests ; Trees ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Forest plantations in Chile occupy more than 2.2 million ha and are responsible for 2.1% of the GDP of the country's economy. The ability to accurately predictions of plantations productivity under current and future climate has an impact can enhance on forest management and industrial wood production. The use of process-based models to predict forest growth has been instrumental in improving the understanding and quantifying the effects of climate variability, climate change, and the impact of atmospheric CO2 concentration and management practices on forest growth. This study uses the 3-PG model to predict future forest productivity Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus radiata. The study integrates climate data from global circulation models used in CMIP5 for scenarios RCP26 and RCP85, digital soil maps for physical and chemical variables. Temporal and spatial tree growth inventories were used to compare with the 3-PG predictions. The results indicated that forest productivity is predicted to potentially increase stand volume (SV) over the next 50 years by 26% and 24% for the RCP26 scenario and between 73% and 62% for the RCP85 scenario for E. globulus and P. radiata, respectively. The predicted increases can be explained by a combination of higher level of atmospheric CO2 , air temperatures closer to optimum than current, and increases in tree water use efficiency. If the effect of CO2 is not considered, the predicted differences of SV for 2070 are 16% and 14% for the RCP26 scenario and 22% and 14% for RCP85 for the two species. While shifts in climate and increasing CO2 are likely to benefit promote higher productivity, other factors such as lack insufficient availability of soil nutrients, events such as increasing frequency and duration of droughts, longer periods of extreme temperatures, competing vegetation, and occurrence of new pests and diseases may compromise these potential gains.}, }
@article {pmid36057567, year = {2022}, author = {Álvarez-Nieto, C and Álvarez-García, C and Parra-Anguita, L and Sanz-Martos, S and López-Medina, IM}, title = {Effectiveness of scenario-based learning and augmented reality for nursing students' attitudes and awareness toward climate change and sustainability.}, journal = {BMC nursing}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {245}, pmid = {36057567}, issn = {1472-6955}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Mainstreaming sustainable healthcare into the curricula of health professions is a key action to raise awareness and change attitudes. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess the contribution of scenario-based learning and augmented reality to the environmental awareness and attitudes toward climate change and sustainability among undergraduate nursing students.<br><br>METHODS: This study was designed as a time-series analysis. Undergraduate nursing students in their 3 years were introduced to sustainability and climate change in the context of healthcare through scenario-based learning sessions. Questionnaires were used to collect data on participants' attitudes towards sustainability and climate change, the usefulness of the educational sessions and the extent to which students changed their clinical practice. A data summary, related sample Friedman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to test for differences in survey scores.<br><br>RESULTS: Attitudes and environmental awareness toward climate change and sustainability increased significantly as students received the learning sessions over the 3 years. After their first clinical training period, students already showed a high awareness of unsustainable practices in their working environment; however, they still struggled to apply sustainability and address unsustainable practices in healthcare settings. Most students felt that the scenarios helped them to make links between climate change, resources, and health.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The scenario-based learning and augmented reality increase environmental awareness and attitudes toward climate change and sustainability among nursing students. Students are very aware of unsustainable practices in their work environment, but more work needs to be done on the application of sustainability principles to nursing practice.}, }
@article {pmid36057332, year = {2022}, author = {Singh, R and Kayastha, SP and Pandey, VP}, title = {Climate change and river health of the Marshyangdi Watershed, Nepal: An assessment using integrated approach.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {215}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {114104}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.114104}, pmid = {36057332}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Hydrology ; Nepal ; *Rivers/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Climate change alters the river flow regimes causing significant changes in the structure and function of an aquatic ecosystem, ultimately affecting river health. This study applied a customized framework consisting of 1-index, 4-components, 6-indicators, and 43-metrics, to assess river health for two seasons and future periods, in the Marshyangdi Watershed, Nepal. Hydrological, water quality, biological and physical conditions were assessed using simulated results from a hydrological model, physiochemical analysis of water samples, macroinvertebrates assemblages analysis, and physical habitat condition assessment, respectively. Climate change impact on river health was assessed based on projected climate (precipitation and temperature) based on regional climate models under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios until the mid-century. Results showed moderate river health condition in both the seasons and it's deterioration for future scenarios and periods. It reveals the need to formulate appropriate measures for the conservation of the river health.}, }
@article {pmid36055953, year = {2022}, author = {Campos, L and Barreto, JV and Bassetti, S and Bivol, M and Burbridge, A and Castellino, P and Correia, JA and Durusu-Tanriöver, M and Fierbinteanu-Braticevici, C and Hanslik, T and Heleniak, Z and Hojs, R and Lazebnic, L and Mylona, M and Raspe, M and Melo, JQE and Pietrantonio, F and Gans, R and Pálsson, R and Montano, N and Gómez-Huelgas, R and Dicker, D}, title = {Physicians' responsibility toward environmental degradation and climate change: A position paper of the European Federation of Internal Medicine.}, journal = {European journal of internal medicine}, volume = {104}, number = {}, pages = {55-58}, doi = {10.1016/j.ejim.2022.08.001}, pmid = {36055953}, issn = {1879-0828}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Hospitals ; Humans ; Internal Medicine ; *Physicians ; }, abstract = {The current data on climate change and environmental degradation are dramatic. The consequences of these changes are already having a significant impact on people's health. Physicians - as advocates of the patients, but also as citizens - have an ethical obligation to be involved in efforts to stop these changes. The European Federation of Internal Medicine (EFIM) strongly encourages the Internal Medicine societies and internists across Europe to play an active role in matters related to climate change and environmental degradation. At a national level, this includes advocating the adoption of measures that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and environmental degradation and contributing to policy decisions related to these issues. At a hospital level and in clinical practice, supporting actions by the health sector to reduce its ecological footprint is vital. At the level of EFIM and its associated internal societies, promoting educational activities and developing a toolkit to prepare internists to better care for citizens who suffer from the consequences of climate change. In addition to advocating and implementing effective actions to reduce the ecological footprint of the health industry, recommending the introduction of these themes in scientific programs of Internal Medicine meetings and congresses and the pre- and postgraduate medical training. At a personal level, internists must be active agents in advocating sustainable practices for the environment, increasing the awareness of the community about the health risks of climate change and environmental degradation, and being role models in the adoption of environmentally friendly behaviour.}, }
@article {pmid36055092, year = {2022}, author = {Shen, Y and Tu, Z and Zhang, Y and Zhong, W and Xia, H and Hao, Z and Zhang, C and Li, H}, title = {Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two relict Liriodendron species by coupling the MaxEnt model and actual physiological indicators in relation to stress tolerance.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {322}, number = {}, pages = {116024}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116024}, pmid = {36055092}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; *Liriodendron ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a crucial impact on the distributions of plants, especially relict species. Hence, predicting the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of relict plants is critical for their future conservation. Liriodendron plants are relict trees, and only two natural species have survived: L. chinense and L. tulipifera. However, the extent of the impact of future climate change on the distributions of these two Liriodendron species remains unclear. Therefore, we predicted the suitable habitat distributions of two Liriodendron species under present and future climate scenarios using MaxEnt modeling. The results showed that the area of suitable habitats for two Liriodendron species would significantly decrease. However, the two relict species presented different habitat shift patterns, with a local contraction of suitable habitat for L. chinense and a northward shift in suitable habitat for L. tulipifera, indicating that changes in environmental factors will affect the distributions of these species. Among the environmental factors assessed, May precipitation induced the largest impact on the L. chinense distribution, while L. tulipifera was significantly affected by precipitation in the driest quarter. Furthermore, to explore the relationship between habitat suitability and Liriodendron stress tolerance, we analyzed six physiological indicators of stress tolerance by sampling twelve provenances of L. chinense and five provenances of L. tulipifera. The composite index of six physiological indicators was significantly negatively correlated with the habitat suitability of the species. The stress tolerance of Liriodendron plants in highly suitable areas was lower than that in areas with moderate or low suitability. Overall, these findings improve our understanding of the ecological impacts of climate change, informing future conservation efforts for Liriodendron species.}, }
@article {pmid36054527, year = {2023}, author = {Festa, F and Ancillotto, L and Santini, L and Pacifici, M and Rocha, R and Toshkova, N and Amorim, F and Benítez-López, A and Domer, A and Hamidović, D and Kramer-Schadt, S and Mathews, F and Radchuk, V and Rebelo, H and Ruczynski, I and Solem, E and Tsoar, A and Russo, D and Razgour, O}, title = {Bat responses to climate change: a systematic review.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {98}, number = {1}, pages = {19-33}, pmid = {36054527}, issn = {1469-185X}, support = {COST Action CA18107//European Cooperation in Science and Technology/ ; CP-06-COST/15//Bulgarian National Science Fund/ ; //Junta de Andaluc&#xed;a/ ; EMERGIA20_00252//EMERGIA grant/ ; //Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities/ ; IJCI-2017-31419//Juan de la Cierva-Incorporaci&#xf3;n grant/ ; 2020.01129.CEECIND/CP1601/CT0004//Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; NE/M018660/20//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; //MUR Rita Levi Montalcini program/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Chiroptera ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Understanding how species respond to climate change is key to informing vulnerability assessments and designing effective conservation strategies, yet research efforts on wildlife responses to climate change fail to deliver a representative overview due to inherent biases. Bats are a species-rich, globally distributed group of organisms that are thought to be particularly sensitive to the effects of climate change because of their high surface-to-volume ratios and low reproductive rates. We systematically reviewed the literature on bat responses to climate change to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge, identify research gaps and biases and highlight future research needs. We found that studies are geographically biased towards Europe, North America and Australia, and temperate and Mediterranean biomes, thus missing a substantial proportion of bat diversity and thermal responses. Less than half of the published studies provide concrete evidence for bat responses to climate change. For over a third of studied bat species, response evidence is only based on predictive species distribution models. Consequently, the most frequently reported responses involve range shifts (57% of species) and changes in patterns of species diversity (26%). Bats showed a variety of responses, including both positive (e.g. range expansion and population increase) and negative responses (range contraction and population decrease), although responses to extreme events were always negative or neutral. Spatial responses varied in their outcome and across families, with almost all taxonomic groups featuring both range expansions and contractions, while demographic responses were strongly biased towards negative outcomes, particularly among Pteropodidae and Molossidae. The commonly used correlative modelling approaches can be applied to many species, but do not provide mechanistic insight into behavioural, physiological, phenological or genetic responses. There was a paucity of experimental studies (26%), and only a small proportion of the 396 bat species covered in the examined studies were studied using long-term and/or experimental approaches (11%), even though they are more informative about the effects of climate change. We emphasise the need for more empirical studies to unravel the multifaceted nature of bats' responses to climate change and the need for standardised study designs that will enable synthesis and meta-analysis of the literature. Finally, we stress the importance of overcoming geographic and taxonomic disparities through strengthening research capacity in the Global South to provide a more comprehensive view of terrestrial biodiversity responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36054311, year = {2022}, author = {Tordoni, E and Petruzzellis, F and Di Bonaventura, A and Pavanetto, N and Tomasella, M and Nardini, A and Boscutti, F and Martini, F and Bacaro, G}, title = {Projections of leaf turgor loss point shifts under future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {22}, pages = {6640-6652}, pmid = {36054311}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cycadopsida ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; *Magnoliopsida/physiology ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Water/physiology ; }, abstract = {Predicting the consequences of climate change is of utmost importance to mitigate impacts on vulnerable ecosystems; plant hydraulic traits are particularly useful proxies for predicting functional disruptions potentially occurring in the near future. This study assessed the current and future regional patterns of leaf water potential at turgor loss point (Ψtlp) by measuring and projecting the Ψtlp of 166 vascular plant species (159 angiosperms and 7 gymnosperms) across a large climatic range spanning from alpine to Mediterranean areas in NE Italy. For angiosperms, random forest models predicted a consistent shift toward more negative values in low-elevation areas, whereas for gymnosperms the pattern was more variable, particularly in the alpine sector (i.e., Alps and Prealps). Simulations were also developed to evaluate the number of threatened species under two Ψtlp plasticity scenarios (low vs. high plasticity), and it was found that in the worst-case scenario approximately 72% of the angiosperm species and 68% of gymnosperms within a location were at risk to exceed their physiological plasticity. The different responses to climate change by specific clades might produce reassembly in natural communities, undermining the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36053986, year = {2022}, author = {Isotalo, T and Rotenbiller, L and Candolin, U}, title = {The importance of considering the duration of extreme temperatures when investigating responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {22}, pages = {6577-6585}, pmid = {36053986}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Male ; *Reproduction/physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The frequency and duration of heatwaves are increasing because of human activities. To cope with the changes, species with longer generation times may have to rely on plastic responses. The probability that their responses are adaptive is higher if the species have experienced temperature fluctuations also in their evolutionary past. However, experimental studies investigating responses to heatwaves often use exposure times that are significantly shorter than recent heatwaves. We show that this can lead to faulty conclusions and that the duration of higher temperature has to be considered in experimental designs. We recorded the response of threespine stickleback to prolonged duration of higher temperature during the breeding season, using a population that has experienced large fluctuations in temperature in its past and, hence, is expected to endure temperature changes well. We found males to adaptively adjust their reproductive behaviours to short periods of higher temperature, but not to longer periods that extended across two breeding cycles. Males initially increased their reproductive activities-nest building, courtship and parental care-which ensured high reproductive success during the first breeding cycle, but decreased their reproductive activities during the second breeding cycle when exposed to sustained high temperature. This reduced their courtship success and resulted in fewer offspring. Thus, a species expected to cope well with higher temperature suffers fitness reductions when the duration of high temperature is prolonged. The results stress the importance of considering the duration of extreme environmental conditions when investigating the impact that human activities have on species. Responses to short-term exposures cannot be extrapolated to assess responses to longer periods of extreme conditions.}, }
@article {pmid36053734, year = {2022}, author = {Ureta, C and Ramírez-Barrón, M and Sánchez-García, EA and Cuervo-Robayo, AP and Munguía-Carrara, M and Mendoza-Ponce, A and Gay, C and Sánchez-Cordero, V}, title = {Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land-use/cover change scenarios in Mexico.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {23}, pages = {6992-7008}, pmid = {36053734}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Mexico ; Biodiversity ; Mammals ; }, abstract = {There is a need to revise the framework used to project species risks under climate change (CC) and land-use/cover change (LUCC) scenarios. We built a CC risk index using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework, where risk is a function of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity), exposure, and hazard. We incorporated future LUCC scenarios as part of the exposure component. We combined a trait-based approach based on biological characteristics of species with a correlative approach based on ecological niche modeling, assigning risk scores to species, taxonomic (orders), and functional (trophic, body size, and locomotion) groups of terrestrial mammals occurring in Mexico. We identified 15 species projected to lose their climatic suitability. Of the 11 taxonomic orders, Eulipotyphla, Didelphimorphia, Artiodactyla, and Lagomorpha had the highest risk scores. Of the 19 trophic groups, piscivores, insectivores under canopy, frugivores-granivores, herbivores browser, and myrmecophagous had the highest risk scores. Of the five body-sized groups, large-sized species (>15 kg) had highest risk scores. Of the seven locomotion groups, arboreal and semi-aquatics had highest risk scores. CC and LUCC scenarios reduced suitable areas of species potential distributions by 37.5% (with CC), and 51% (with CC and LUCC) under a limited full-dispersal assumption. Reductions in suitable areas of species potential distributions increased to 50.2% (with CC), and 52.4% (with CC and LUCC) under a non-dispersal assumption. Species-rich areas (>75% species) projected 36% (with CC) and 57% (with CC and LUCC) reductions in suitability for 2070. Shifts in climatic suitability projections of species-rich areas increased in number of species in northeast and southeast Mexico and decreased in northwest and southern Mexico, suggesting important species turnover. High-risk projections under future CC and LUCC scenarios for species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities, and species-rich areas of terrestrial mammals highlight trends in different impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function.}, }
@article {pmid36053641, year = {2022}, author = {Lopez, MJ and O'Hare, BA and Hannah, E and Hall, S}, title = {An analysis of tax abuse, debt, and climate change risk in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.}, journal = {BMJ paediatrics open}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {36053641}, issn = {2399-9772}, mesh = {Child ; Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; Humans ; Income ; Poverty ; *Taxes ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is exacerbating a pre-existing child rights crisis. Lower- (low- and lower-middle-) income countries have borne 99% of the disease burden from the crisis, of which children under five carry 90%. In response, much of the recent global policy efforts focus on climate action. However, unsustainable levels of debt and tax abuses are draining countries of crucial revenue to handle the crisis. Like the climate crisis, these are primarily facilitated by entities domiciled within higher- (upper-middle- and high-) income countries. This paper aims to review these revenue leaks in countries where children are at the greatest risk of climate change to identify opportunities to increase climate change resilience.<br><br>METHODS: We compiled data on tax abuse, debt service and climate risk for all lower-income countries with available data to highlight the need for intervention at the global level. We used the Climate Change Risk Index (CCRI), developed by UNICEF. Additionally, we used figures for tax abuse and debt service as a percentage of government revenue.<br><br>RESULTS: We present data on 62 lower-income countries with data on revenue losses, of which 55 have CCRI data. Forty-two of these 62 countries (67.7%) are at high risk of lost government revenues. Forty-one (74.5%) of the 55 countries with CCRI data are at high risk of climate change. Thirty-one countries with data on both (56.4%) are at high risk of both climate change and revenue losses. Most countries at high risk of both are located in sub-Saharan Africa. This shows that countries most in need of resources lose money to arguably preventable leaks in government revenue.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Higher-income countries and global actors can adopt policies and practices to ensure that they do not contribute to human rights abuses in other countries. Highlighting the impact of a failing global economic model on children's economic and social rights and one which increases their vulnerability to the climate emergency could help drive the transition towards a model that prioritises human rights and the environment on which we all depend.}, }
@article {pmid36053422, year = {2023}, author = {Jatuporn, C and Takeuchi, K}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on the agricultural economy in Thailand: an empirical study using panel data analysis.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {8123-8132}, pmid = {36053422}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Thailand ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Economic Development ; Agriculture/methods ; Data Analysis ; }, abstract = {This study estimates the impact of climate change on the economic growth of the agricultural sector and its variability using a panel dataset from 1995 to 2019 for 76 provinces in Thailand. The panel data analysis consists of unit root tests for identifying stationary characteristics, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds for analyzing cointegration, and pool mean group (PMG) estimation for detecting long-run and short-run effects. The cointegration results indicate the existence of long-run equilibrium in the agricultural economy and its variability to climatic and non-climatic variables. Results from the PMG estimation suggest that extreme weather events have a negative impact on the agricultural economy, but increased total rainfall has a positive association with the agricultural economy. The increases in mean average and mean minimum temperatures will reduce the variability of agricultural growth. The obtained results suggest that the productivity of agricultural households and water resources increases the agricultural revenue and reduces its variability for long-term development in the agricultural sector of Thailand.}, }
@article {pmid36050517, year = {2022}, author = {Tsegaye, L and Bharti, R}, title = {The impacts of LULC and climate change scenarios on the hydrology and sediment yield of Rib watershed, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {10}, pages = {717}, pmid = {36050517}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Ethiopia ; *Hydrology ; Ribs ; Water ; }, abstract = {Watershed-scale hydrology and soil erosion are the main environmental components that are greatly affected by environmental perturbations such as climate and land use and land cover (LULC) changes. The purpose of this study is to assess the impacts of scenario-based LULC change and climate change on hydrology and sediment at the watershed scale in Rib watershed, Ethiopia, using the empirical land-use change model, dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE), and soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Regional climate model (RCM) with Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) outputs were bias-corrected and future climate from 2025 to 2099 was analyzed to assess climate changes. Analysis of the LULC change indicated that there has been a high increase in cultivated land at the expense of mixed forest and shrublands and a low and gradual increase in plantation and urban lands in the historical periods (1984-2016) and in the predictions (2016-2049). In general, the predicted climate change indicated that there will be a decrease in precipitation in all of the SRES and RCP scenarios except in the Bega (dry) season and an increase in temperature in all of the scenarios. The impact analysis indicated that there might be an increase in runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), sediment yield, and a decrease in lateral flow, groundwater flow, and water yield. The changing climate and LULC result in an increase in soil erosion and changes in surface and groundwater flow, which might have an impact on reducing crop yield, the main source of livelihood in the area. Therefore, short- and long-term watershed-scale resource management activities have to be designed and implemented to minimize erosion and increase groundwater recharge.}, }
@article {pmid36050344, year = {2022}, author = {Miller, IF and Jiranek, J and Brownell, M and Coffey, S and Gray, B and Stahl, M and Metcalf, CJE}, title = {Predicting the effects of climate change on the cross-scale epidemiological dynamics of a fungal plant pathogen.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {14823}, pmid = {36050344}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Flax/microbiology ; Humans ; Plant Diseases/microbiology ; Plants/microbiology ; }, abstract = {The potential for climate change to exacerbate the burden of human infectious diseases is increasingly recognized, but its effects on infectious diseases of plants have received less attention. Understanding the impacts of climate on the epidemiological dynamics of plant pathogens is imperative, as these organisms play central roles in natural ecosystems and also pose a serious threat to agricultural production and food security. We use the fungal 'flax rust' pathogen (Melampsora lini) and its subalpine wildflower host Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) to investigate how climate change might affect the dynamics of fungal plant pathogen epidemics using a combination of empirical and modeling approaches. Our results suggest that climate change will initially slow transmission at both the within- and between-host scales. However, moderate resurgences in disease spread are predicted as warming progresses, especially if the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase at its current pace. These findings represent an important step towards building a holistic understanding of climate effects on plant infectious disease that encompasses demographic, epidemiological, and evolutionary processes. A core result is that neglecting processes at any one scale of plant pathogen transmission may bias projections of climate effects, as climate drivers have variable and cascading impacts on processes underlying transmission that occur at different scales.}, }
@article {pmid36049825, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {If not us, then who? nursing and climate change.}, journal = {Nursing outlook}, volume = {70}, number = {4}, pages = {554-555}, doi = {10.1016/j.outlook.2022.07.005}, pmid = {36049825}, issn = {1528-3968}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Curriculum ; *Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid36048507, year = {2023}, author = {Edelson, PJ and Harold, R and Ackelsberg, J and Duchin, JS and Lawrence, SJ and Manabe, YC and Zahn, M and LaRocque, RC}, title = {Climate Change and the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases in the United States.}, journal = {Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America}, volume = {76}, number = {5}, pages = {950-956}, doi = {10.1093/cid/ciac697}, pmid = {36048507}, issn = {1537-6591}, mesh = {Animals ; United States/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Public Health ; Weather ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The earth is rapidly warming, driven by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and other gases that result primarily from fossil fuel combustion. In addition to causing arctic ice melting and extreme weather events, climatologic factors are linked strongly to the transmission of many infectious diseases. Changes in the prevalence of infectious diseases not only reflect the impacts of temperature, humidity, and other weather-related phenomena on pathogens, vectors, and animal hosts but are also part of a complex of social and environmental factors that will be affected by climate change, including land use, migration, and vector control. Vector- and waterborne diseases and coccidioidomycosis are all likely to be affected by a warming planet; there is also potential for climate-driven impacts on emerging infectious diseases and antimicrobial resistance. Additional resources for surveillance and public health activities are urgently needed, as well as systematic education of clinicians on the health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36047692, year = {2023}, author = {Healy, BD and Budy, P and Yackulic, CB and Murphy, BP and Schelly, RC and McKinstry, MC}, title = {Exploring metapopulation-scale suppression alternatives for a global invader in a river network experiencing climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {e13993}, pmid = {36047692}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Rivers ; *Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Trout/physiology ; }, abstract = {Invasive species can dramatically alter ecosystems, but eradication is difficult, and suppression is expensive once they are established. Uncertainties in the potential for expansion and impacts by an invader can lead to delayed and inadequate suppression, allowing for establishment. Metapopulation viability models can aid in planning strategies to improve responses to invaders and lessen invasive species' impacts, which may be particularly important under climate change. We used a spatially explicit metapopulation viability model to explore suppression strategies for ecologically damaging invasive brown trout (Salmo trutta), established in the Colorado River and a tributary in Grand Canyon National Park. Our goals were to estimate the effectiveness of strategies targeting different life stages and subpopulations within a metapopulation; quantify the effectiveness of a rapid response to a new invasion relative to delaying action until establishment; and estimate whether future hydrology and temperature regimes related to climate change and reservoir management affect metapopulation viability and alter the optimal management response. Our models included scenarios targeting different life stages with spatially varying intensities of electrofishing, redd destruction, incentivized angler harvest, piscicides, and a weir. Quasi-extinction (QE) was obtainable only with metapopulation-wide suppression targeting multiple life stages. Brown trout population growth rates were most sensitive to changes in age 0 and large adult mortality. The duration of suppression needed to reach QE for a large established subpopulation was 12 years compared with 4 with a rapid response to a new invasion. Isolated subpopulations were vulnerable to suppression; however, connected tributary subpopulations enhanced metapopulation persistence by serving as climate refuges. Water shortages driving changes in reservoir storage and subsequent warming would cause brown trout declines, but metapopulation QE was achieved only through refocusing and increasing suppression. Our modeling approach improves understanding of invasive brown trout metapopulation dynamics, which could lead to more focused and effective invasive species suppression strategies and, ultimately, maintenance of populations of endemic fishes.}, }
@article {pmid36047439, year = {2022}, author = {Cheung, WWL and Palacios-Abrantes, J and Frölicher, TL and Palomares, ML and Clarke, T and Lam, VWY and Oyinlola, MA and Pauly, D and Reygondeau, G and Sumaila, UR and Teh, LCL and Wabnitz, CCC}, title = {Rebuilding fish biomass for the world's marine ecoregions under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {21}, pages = {6254-6267}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16368}, pmid = {36047439}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Fishes ; Humans ; Water ; }, abstract = {Rebuilding overexploited marine populations is an important step to achieve the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 14-Life Below Water. Mitigating major human pressures is required to achieve rebuilding goals. Climate change is one such key pressure, impacting fish and invertebrate populations by changing their biomass and biogeography. Here, combining projection from a dynamic bioclimate envelope model with published estimates of status of exploited populations from a catch-based analysis, we analyze the effects of different global warming and fishing levels on biomass rebuilding for the exploited species in 226 marine ecoregions of the world. Fifty three percent (121) of the marine ecoregions have significant (at 5% level) relationship between biomass and global warming level. Without climate change and under a target fishing mortality rate relative to the level required for maximum sustainable yield of 0.75, we project biomass rebuilding of 1.7-2.7 times (interquartile range) of current (average 2014-2018) levels across marine ecoregions. When global warming level is at 1.5 and 2.6°C, respectively, such biomass rebuilding drops to 1.4-2.0 and 1.1-1.5 times of current levels, with 10% and 25% of the ecoregions showing no biomass rebuilding, respectively. Marine ecoregions where biomass rebuilding is largely impacted by climate change are in West Africa, the Indo-Pacific, the central and south Pacific, and the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Coastal communities in these ecoregions are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihoods and nutrition security. Lowering the targeted fishing level and keeping global warming below 1.5°C are projected to enable more climate-sensitive ecoregions to rebuild biomass. However, our findings also underscore the need to resolve trade-offs between climate-resilient biomass rebuilding and the high near-term demand for seafood to support the well-being of coastal communities across the tropics.}, }
@article {pmid36045501, year = {2022}, author = {Anderson, OF and Stephenson, F and Behrens, E and Rowden, AA}, title = {Predicting the effects of climate change on deep-water coral distribution around New Zealand-Will there be suitable refuges for protection at the end of the 21st century?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {22}, pages = {6556-6576}, pmid = {36045501}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Calcium Carbonate ; Climate Change ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; New Zealand ; Nitrogen ; Oxygen ; Seawater ; Water ; }, abstract = {Deep-water corals are protected in the seas around New Zealand by legislation that prohibits intentional damage and removal, and by marine protected areas where bottom trawling is prohibited. However, these measures do not protect them from the impacts of a changing climate and ocean acidification. To enable adequate future protection from these threats we require knowledge of the present distribution of corals and the environmental conditions that determine their preferred habitat, as well as the likely future changes in these conditions, so that we can identify areas for potential refugia. In this study, we built habitat suitability models for 12 taxa of deep-water corals using a comprehensive set of sample data and predicted present and future seafloor environmental conditions from an earth system model specifically tailored for the South Pacific. These models predicted that for most taxa there will be substantial shifts in the location of the most suitable habitat and decreases in the area of such habitat by the end of the 21st century, driven primarily by decreases in seafloor oxygen concentrations, shoaling of aragonite and calcite saturation horizons, and increases in nitrogen concentrations. The current network of protected areas in the region appear to provide little protection for most coral taxa, as there is little overlap with areas of highest habitat suitability, either in the present or the future. We recommend an urgent re-examination of the spatial distribution of protected areas for deep-water corals in the region, utilising spatial planning software that can balance protection requirements against value from fishing and mineral resources, take into account the current status of the coral habitats after decades of bottom trawling, and consider connectivity pathways for colonisation of corals into potential refugia.}, }
@article {pmid36044952, year = {2022}, author = {Yang, L and Muhammad, I and Chi, YX and Liu, YX and Wang, GY and Wang, Y and Zhou, XB}, title = {Straw return and nitrogen fertilization regulate soil greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential in dual maize cropping system.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {853}, number = {}, pages = {158370}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158370}, pmid = {36044952}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Soil/chemistry ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Zea mays ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Nitrogen ; Global Warming ; Carbon Dioxide ; Ecosystem ; Agriculture ; Fertilization ; China ; }, abstract = {Abundant nitrogen (N) fertilization is needed for maize (Zea mays L.) production in China because of its huge residual biomass return. However, excessive N fertilization has a negative impact on the soil ecosystem and environment, which contributes to climate change. Soil incorporation of maize residues is a well-known practice for reducing chemical N fertilization without compromising maize yield and soil fertility. Thus, residues incorporation has the capacity to minimize N fertilization uses and hence mitigate soil greenhouse gas emissions by improving plant N uptake and use efficiency. There is still a research gap regarding the effects of maize residues incorporation on maize yield, soil fertility, greenhouse gas emissions, and plant N and carbon (C) contents. Therefore, we conducted a field experiment during spring and autumn involving four different N fertilization rates (N0, N200, N250, and N300 kg N ha[-1]), with and without maize residues incorporation, to evaluate grain yield, soil fertility, plant N and C contents, and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Compared to N0, N fertilizer application at 300 kg N ha[-1] with residues incorporation significantly increased area-scaled global warming potential (GWP) compared to other N fertilization rates in both spring and autumn seasons, but soil nutrient contents and plant N and C contents were not statistically different from the N250 treatment. In contrast, the N recovery use efficiency (NRUE), physiological N use efficiency (PNUE), and agronomic N use efficiency (ANUE) were significantly lower in the N300 treatment than in the lower N treatment groups. Nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes, area-scaled GWP, and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) were significantly lower in the N200 treatment with straw incorporation than the N250 and N300 treatments of the traditional planting system. Thus, we concluded that N200 treatment with residues incorporation is optimal for improving grain yield, soil fertility, plant N uptake, and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid36043809, year = {2022}, author = {Li, YH and Qi, GZ and Feng, RR and Liu, K}, title = {[Responses of radial growth of Pinus tabuliformis to climate change at the northern slopes of Qinling Mountains, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {33}, number = {8}, pages = {2043-2050}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202208.040}, pmid = {36043809}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; *Pinus ; *Sexually Transmitted Diseases ; Trees ; }, abstract = {A standard chronology (STD) was established with Pinus tabuliformis samples collected from Nanwutai at the northern slopes of the Qinling Mountains. The correlations between radial growth of P. tabuliformis and climatic factors were explored. The results showed that radial growth was positively correlated with moisture factors in previous September and current May. The radial growth was positively correlated with temperature factors in pre-vious November and negatively with that in previous October and current May. There was significant lag effect of climatic factors on the radial growth. The radial growth of P. tabuliformis was well correlated with the PDSI drought severity index, with positive correlations being identified from September to December of the previous year and in May of the current year. The regression model was able to simulate the relationship between STD and PDSI. The formations of extremely wide and narrow tree-ring were mainly a result of drought condition. Combined with climatic factors, PDSI could better reflect the radial growth characteristics of P. tabuliformis.}, }
@article {pmid36043527, year = {2022}, author = {Corsolini, S and Ademollo, N}, title = {POPs in Antarctic ecosystems: is climate change affecting their temporal trends?.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {1631-1642}, doi = {10.1039/d2em00273f}, pmid = {36043527}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Antarctic Regions ; Persistent Organic Pollutants ; Ice ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting Antarctica and the Southern Ocean and effects have been already reported for the abiotic compartments of the ecosystems, e.g. ice loss and iceberg calving. Global warming can alter also the distribution of persistent organic pollutant (POPs) both at a global scale and in the Antarctic Region, due to their physical-chemical characteristics. Effects of climate changes have been already reported on feeding behaviour and reproductive process of organisms. Another consequence for organisms includes the POP bioaccumulation. Here we review the literature reporting the linkage between recorded effects of climate changes and POP bioaccumulation in resident marine Antarctic species (fish and penguins). Notwithstanding Antarctica is a final sink for persistent contaminants due to the extreme cold climate, a general decreasing POP trend has been observed for some POPs. Their concentrations in biota are reported to be linked to ice melting and large iceberg calving; the peculiar marine Antarctic ecosystems and the pelagic-benthic coupling may also contribute to alterations in the bioaccumulation processes. These effects are similar in polar regions, although the comparison with the Arctic biota is not possible due to the lack of data in the Antarctic Region. It remains an open question if the POP amount accumulated in the Antarctic ecosystems is decreasing or not.}, }
@article {pmid36043041, year = {2022}, author = {Shirley, H and Grifferty, G and Yates, EF and Raykar, N and Wamai, R and McClain, CD}, title = {The Connection between Climate Change, Surgical Care and Neglected Tropical Diseases.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {88}, number = {1}, pages = {68}, pmid = {36043041}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {*COVID-19/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Elephantiasis, Filarial/epidemiology ; Humans ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology ; *Tropical Medicine ; }, abstract = {The surgical burden of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is set to rise alongside average temperatures and drought. NTDs with surgical indications, including trachoma and lymphatic filariasis, predominantly affect people in low- and middle-income countries where the gravest effects of climate change are likely to be felt. Vectors sensitive to temperature and rainfall will likely expand their reach to previously nonendemic regions, while drought may exacerbate NTD burden in already resource-strained settings. Current NTD mitigation strategies, including mass drug administrations, were interrupted by COVID-19, demonstrating the vulnerability of NTD progress to global events. Without NTD programming that meshes with surgical systems strengthening, climate change may outpace current strategies to reduce the burden of these diseases.}, }
@article {pmid36042857, year = {2022}, author = {Hulagappa, T and Baradevanal, G and Surpur, S and Raghavendra, D and Doddachowdappa, S and R Shashank, P and Kereyagalahalli Mallaiah, K and Bedar, J}, title = {Diagnosis and potential invasion risk of Thrips parvispinus under current and future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e13868}, pmid = {36042857}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; *Thysanoptera ; Climate Change ; Introduced Species ; Forecasting ; India ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Invasive thrips, Thrips parvispinus Karny recently reported in India, causing a widespread severe infestation in more than 0.4 million ha of chilli (Capsicum annum L.) growing areas. This species is native to Thailand and most prevalent in other South East Asian countries. Large scale cultivation of the major host plants (chilli and papaya), and favourable climatic conditions in India and other countries similar to native range of Thrips parvispinus expected to favour its further spread and establishment to new areas.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: The present study was undertaken to confirm invasive thrips species identity through both morphological and molecular approaches and predict its potential invasion using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm.<br><br>RESULTS: The model predicted species range in respect of discrimination of suitable and unsuitable areas for its occurrence both in current and future climatic scenarios. The model provided a good fit for species distribution with a high value of area under the curve (0.957). The jackknife test indicated annual mean temperature and precipitation were found to be the most important bioclimatic variable in determining the distribution of T. parvispinus. High suitability areas were predicted in the countries wherever its occurrence was reported with high discrimination ability of suitable and unsuitable areas. Key distinguishing morphological characters of T. parvispinus were illustrated through high-resolution scanning electron microscopic images.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The identity of the thrips causing wide spread damage in chilli confirmed through morphological and molecular approaches. Key identifying characters were described through high resolution scanning electron microscopic images for accurate identification of the species. MaxEnt model identified high suitability regions for the potential establishment of T. parvispinus in India and other parts of the world. This study facilitates forecasting of further spread and also suggests imposing strict domestic quarantine measures to curtail its establishment in the new areas.}, }
@article {pmid36041299, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, P and Cai, Y and He, Y and Xie, Y and Zhang, X and Li, Z}, title = {Changes of vegetational cover and the induced impacts on hydrological processes under climate change for a high-diversity watershed of south China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {322}, number = {}, pages = {115963}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115963}, pmid = {36041299}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Hydrology ; Rivers ; Water ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Understanding the changes in hydrological process is a key subject for water resource management of a high-diversity watershed. In this paper, through an establishment of a SWAT-based model, the effects of climate change and its induced vegetation change on hydrological process were analyzed in the East River Basin. The model could well simulate the hydrological processes of the basin including surface runoff (SURQ), groundwater (GWQ), lateral flow (LATQ), total water yield (WYLD), actual evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater recharge (PERC). Under the vegetation change induced by temperature increase, the effects of the vegetation change on hydrological process were larger than that of the temperature change. Under the vegetation change caused by the increase of temperature and precipitation, the vegetation change enhanced the effects of climate change on annual SURQ, LATQ, GWQ, WYLD, and PERC of the basin. Under spatial scale, when the temperature and precipitation changed simultaneously, the increase of precipitation could promote the increase of annual ET in sub-watersheds. Also, the annual SURQ, WYLD, GWQ and ET in western sub-watersheds were more sensitive to the cumulative changes of vegetation and climate. This work can provide useful information to decision makers in water resource management of watersheds.}, }
@article {pmid36040922, year = {2022}, author = {Garcia-Rojas, MI and Keatley, MR and Roslan, N}, title = {Citizen science and expert opinion working together to understand the impacts of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {8}, pages = {e0273822}, pmid = {36040922}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Citizen Science ; *Climate Change ; Expert Testimony ; Flowers ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In the absence of historical information on phenology available in Australia, expert opinion was used for selecting indicator species that would be suitable for monitoring phenology on a continental scale as part of ClimateWatch-a citizen science program. Jacaranda mimosifolia being the most frequently observed species was used in this study to test expert opinion and the adequacy of citizen science records in detecting the influence of climatic conditions on this species' flowering phenology. Generalised Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape were used to explore the occurrence and intensity of flowering of Jacaranda in relation to rainfall, temperature, and sun exposure. Jacaranda flowering onset was influenced by winter cold exposure, while flowering intensity was related to increasing sun exposure as spring progresses, and both were influenced by the conditions for flowering in the former flowering seasons (i.e., sun exposure and highest temperatures reached, respectively). Our models provide the first attempt to describe the climate drivers for Jacaranda mimosifolia flowering in the southern hemisphere and identify where climatic changes will most likely alter this tree's phenology in Australia and benefit or challenge its reproductive ability. They also support the choice of species for citizen science programs based on expert opinion.}, }
@article {pmid36038659, year = {2023}, author = {Leong, M and Karr, CJ and Shah, SI and Brumberg, HL}, title = {Before the first breath: why ambient air pollution and climate change should matter to neonatal-perinatal providers.}, journal = {Journal of perinatology : official journal of the California Perinatal Association}, volume = {43}, number = {8}, pages = {1059-1066}, pmid = {36038659}, issn = {1476-5543}, support = {P30 ES007033/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Pregnancy ; Female ; Infant, Newborn ; Humans ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Air Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis ; }, abstract = {Common outdoor air pollutants present threats to fetal and neonatal health, placing neonatal-perinatal clinical specialists in an important role for harm reduction through patient counseling and advocacy. Climate change is intertwined with air pollution and influences air quality. There is increasing evidence demonstrating the unique vulnerability in the development of adverse health consequences from exposures during the preconception, prenatal, and early postnatal periods, as well as promising indications that policies aimed at addressing these toxicants have improved birth outcomes. Advocacy by neonatal-perinatal providers articulating the potential impact of pollutants on newborns and mothers is essential to promoting improvements in air quality and reducing exposures. The goal of this review is to update neonatal-perinatal clinical specialists on the key ambient air pollutants of concern, their sources and health effects, and to outline strategies for protecting patients and communities from documented adverse health consequences.}, }
@article {pmid36037425, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {Nursing Faculty's Perceptions of Climate Change and Sustainability.}, journal = {Nursing education perspectives}, volume = {43}, number = {5}, pages = {E32}, doi = {10.1097/01.NEP.0000000000001031}, pmid = {36037425}, issn = {1536-5026}, mesh = {Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; *Faculty, Nursing ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid36037418, year = {2022}, author = {Amerson, RM and Boice, O and Mitchell, H and Bible, J}, title = {Nursing Faculty's Perceptions of Climate Change and Sustainability.}, journal = {Nursing education perspectives}, volume = {43}, number = {5}, pages = {277-282}, pmid = {36037418}, issn = {1536-5026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Curriculum ; *Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate/methods ; *Faculty, Nursing ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {AIM: The aim of this research study was to investigate the perceptions of climate change and sustainability of faculty teaching in associate and baccalaureate degree nursing programs in South Carolina and their attitudes toward inclusion of relevant content into the nursing curriculum.<br><br>BACKGROUND: Climate change is a topic that receives limited discussion in most nursing education curricula.<br><br>METHOD: This cross-sectional, descriptive study gathered data from 21 schools of nursing via an online survey consisting of demographic questions, the New Ecological Paradigm Scale, and the Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey 2 and two questions regarding the current inclusion of content.<br><br>RESULTS: Eighty-one percent of respondents did not include health implications of climate change in their teaching content; 67% did not include health implications of sustainability.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Results provide preliminary evidence of gaps and areas of need for curricular content related to climate change and sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid36037176, year = {2022}, author = {Ougahi, JH and E J Cutler, M and J Cook, S}, title = {Assessment of climate change effects on vegetation and river hydrology in a semi-arid river basin.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {8}, pages = {e0271991}, pmid = {36037176}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hydrology ; *Rivers ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change plays a key role in changing vegetation productivity dynamics, which ultimately affect the hydrological cycle of a watershed through evapotranspiration (ET). Trends and correlation analysis were conducted to investigate vegetation responses across the whole Upper Jhelum River Basin (UJRB) in the northeast of Pakistan using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), climate variables, and river flow data at inter-annual/monthly scales between 1982 and 2015. The spatial variability in trends calculated with the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test on NDVI and climate data was assessed considering five dominant land use/cover types. The inter-annual NDVI in four out of five vegetation types showed a consistent increase over the 34-year study period; the exception was for herbaceous vegetation (HV), which increased until the end of the 1990s and then decreased slightly in subsequent years. In spring, significant (p<0.05) increasing trends were found in the NDVI of all vegetation types. Minimum temperature (Tmin) showed a significant increase during spring, while maximum temperature (Tmax) decreased significantly during summer. Average annual increase in Tmin (1.54°C) was much higher than Tmax (0.37°C) over 34 years in the UJRB. Hence, Tmin appears to have an enhancing effect on vegetation productivity over the UJRB. A significant increase in NDVI, Tmin and Tmax during spring may have contributed to reductions in spring river flow by enhancing evapotranspiration observed in the watershed of UJRB. These findings provide valuable information to improve our knowledge and understanding about the interlinkages between vegetation, climate and river flow at a watershed scale.}, }
@article {pmid36034512, year = {2022}, author = {Hudson, AR and Peters, DPC and Blair, JM and Childers, DL and Doran, PT and Geil, K and Gooseff, M and Gross, KL and Haddad, NM and Pastore, MA and Rudgers, JA and Sala, O and Seabloom, EW and Shaver, G}, title = {Cross-Site Comparisons of Dryland Ecosystem Response to Climate Change in the US Long-Term Ecological Research Network.}, journal = {Bioscience}, volume = {72}, number = {9}, pages = {889-907}, pmid = {36034512}, issn = {0006-3568}, abstract = {Long-term observations and experiments in diverse drylands reveal how ecosystems and services are responding to climate change. To develop generalities about climate change impacts at dryland sites, we compared broadscale patterns in climate and synthesized primary production responses among the eight terrestrial, nonforested sites of the United States Long-Term Ecological Research (US LTER) Network located in temperate (Southwest and Midwest) and polar (Arctic and Antarctic) regions. All sites experienced warming in recent decades, whereas drought varied regionally with multidecadal phases. Multiple years of wet or dry conditions had larger effects than single years on primary production. Droughts, floods, and wildfires altered resource availability and restructured plant communities, with greater impacts on primary production than warming alone. During severe regional droughts, air pollution from wildfire and dust events peaked. Studies at US LTER drylands over more than 40 years demonstrate reciprocal links and feedbacks among dryland ecosystems, climate-driven disturbance events, and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36034511, year = {2022}, author = {Jones, JA and Driscoll, CT}, title = {Long-Term Ecological Research on Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change.}, journal = {Bioscience}, volume = {72}, number = {9}, pages = {814-826}, doi = {10.1093/biosci/biac021}, pmid = {36034511}, issn = {0006-3568}, abstract = {In this article marking the 40th anniversary of the US National Science Foundation's Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network, we describe how a long-term ecological research perspective facilitates insights into an ecosystem's response to climate change. At all 28 LTER sites, from the Arctic to Antarctica, air temperature and moisture variability have increased since 1930, with increased disturbance frequency and severity and unprecedented disturbance types. LTER research documents the responses to these changes, including altered primary production, enhanced cycling of organic and inorganic matter, and changes in populations and communities. Although some responses are shared among diverse ecosystems, most are unique, involving region-specific drivers of change, interactions among multiple climate change drivers, and interactions with other human activities. Ecosystem responses to climate change are just beginning to emerge, and as climate change accelerates, long-term ecological research is crucial to understand, mitigate, and adapt to ecosystem responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36032941, year = {2022}, author = {Wedding, LM and Reiter, S and Moritsch, M and Hartge, E and Reiblich, J and Gourlie, D and Guerry, A}, title = {Embedding the value of coastal ecosystem services into climate change adaptation planning.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e13463}, pmid = {36032941}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Wetlands ; Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {Coastal habitats, such as salt marshes and dune systems, can protect communities from hazards by reducing coastline exposure. However, these critical habitats and their diverse ecosystem services are threatened by coastal development and the impacts from a changing climate. Ever increasing pressure on coastal habitats calls for coastal climate adaptation efforts that mitigate or adapt to these pressures in ways that maintain the integrity of coastal landscapes. An important challenge for decisionmakers is determining the best mitigation and adaptation strategies that not only protect human lives and property, but also safeguard the ability of coastal habitats to provide a broad suite of benefits. Here, we present a potential pathway for local-scale climate change adaptation planning through the identification and mapping of natural habitats that provide the greatest benefits to coastal communities. The methodology coupled a coastal vulnerability model with a climate adaptation policy assessment in an effort to identify priority locations for nature-based solutions that reduce vulnerability of critical assets using feasible land-use policy methods. Our results demonstrate the critical role of natural habitats in providing the ecosystem service of coastal protection in California. We found that specific dune habitats play a key role in reducing erosion and inundation of the coastline and that several wetland areas help to absorb energy from storms and provide a protective service for the coast of Marin county, California, USA. Climate change and adaptation planning are globally relevant issues in which the scalability and transferability of solutions must be considered. This work outlines an iterative approach for climate adaptation planning at a local-scale, with opportunity to consider the scalability of an iterative science-policy engagement approach to regional, national, and international levels.}, }
@article {pmid36030867, year = {2022}, author = {Souza, AT and Ilarri, M and Campos, J and Ribas, FO and Marques, JC and Martins, I}, title = {Boom and bust: Simulating the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a global invader near the edge of its native range.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {851}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {158294}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158294}, pmid = {36030867}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; *Brachyura/physiology ; Salinity ; }, abstract = {Despite the increasing awareness of climate change, few studies have used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios to simulate the effects of climate change on estuarine populations of crustaceans. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature and salinity fluctuations on the population dynamics of the shore crab Carcinus maenas at the southern edge of its native range. To this end, a population dynamics model was developed based on experimental and literature data on the biology, ecology and physiology of the species. Results showed that the shore crab will be more affected by changes in temperature than in salinity. The parameter sensitivity analysis revealed that the larval phase of the species is the most sensitive stage of the shore crab life cycle. Three IPCC scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-8.5) were used to simulate the effects of temperature increase on the population of C. maenas in the near- (2040), mid- (2060), and long-term (2100). Two scenarios of drought conditions accompanied by the estimated salinity change were also simulated (10 % and 40 % drought). Results suggested that slight increases in temperature (up to 2 °C) lead to a strong increase on the density of C. maenas in the mid-term, while further temperature increases lead to a decline or local extinction of the shore crab population at the southern edge of its distribution range. Results indicated that a salinity increase in the estuary had a negative effect on the shore crab population. Given the importance of the species to temperate coastal ecosystems, both population increase and local extinction are likely to have significant impacts on estuarine communities and food webs, with unknown ecological and socioeconomic consequences.}, }
@article {pmid36030411, year = {2023}, author = {Hiatt, RA and Beyeler, N}, title = {Women's cancers and climate change.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {374-377}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.14407}, pmid = {36030411}, issn = {1879-3479}, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Women's Health ; *Neoplasms ; }, }
@article {pmid36030121, year = {2023}, author = {Heeren, A and Mouguiama-Daouda, C and McNally, RJ}, title = {A network approach to climate change anxiety and its key related features.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {93}, number = {}, pages = {102625}, doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2022.102625}, pmid = {36030121}, issn = {1873-7897}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Anxiety/psychology ; Anxiety Disorders ; }, abstract = {Research has pointed to startling worldwide rates of people reporting considerable anxiety vis-à-vis climate change. Yet, uncertainties remain regarding how climate anxiety's cognitive-emotional features and daily life functional impairments interact with one another and with climate change experience, pro-environmental behaviors, and general worry. In this study, we apply network analyses to examine the associations among these variables in an international community sample (n = 874). We computed two network models, a graphical Gaussian model to explore network structure, potential communities, and influential nodes, and a directed acyclic graph to examine the probabilistic dependencies among the variables. Both network models pointed to the cognitive-emotional features of climate anxiety as a potential hub bridging general worry, the experience of climate change, pro-environmental behaviors, and the functional impairments associated with climate anxiety. Our findings offer data-driven clues for the field's larger quest to establish the foundations of climate anxiety.}, }
@article {pmid36029338, year = {2022}, author = {Wu, T and Barrett, J}, title = {Coastal Land Use Management Methodologies under Pressure from Climate Change and Population Growth.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {70}, number = {5}, pages = {827-839}, pmid = {36029338}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Floods ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; Transportation ; }, abstract = {Throughout history, humans living in the coastal area constantly adapt to the natural environment and create a changing environment. The rapid coastal development occurred in the mid-19th century and peaks in the mid-20th century, which was a common process in most industrialized areas. With increasing population growth and urban sprawl, many coastal lowlands are unprecedently vulnerable to climate change impacts such as sea level rise, increasing extreme storm events, and coastal flooding. Under the influence of urban revitalization and conservation, the landward shoreline movement accelerated and coastal land shrank, accompanied by community retreat. This research focuses on the importance of incorporating an understanding of the changing coastal land-ocean interaction into adaptive management strategies by illustrating the relationship of land use change, social-economic development, and climate change. Typical coastal changes in Connecticut were selected: New Haven Harbor reflects a dramatic seaward land accretion under industrial and transportation development, New London downtown waterfront reveals a trend of building retreat under industrial and commercial transformation and coastal hazard, New London Ocean Beach indicates how overdeveloped coastal low-lying community fully retreat after a natural disaster, and Jordan Cove barrier island shows a highly dynamic coastal land change and proactive management strategy. The results reveal that to cope with a constantly changing shoreline and the challenges of climate change, a resilient management process must incorporate a cycle of learning, experimenting, and creating with the goal of developing new solutions that are able to deal with our ever-changing environment.}, }
@article {pmid36029152, year = {2022}, author = {Tipton, M and Montgomery, H}, title = {Climate change, healthy ageing and the health crisis: is wisdom the link?.}, journal = {Experimental physiology}, volume = {107}, number = {11}, pages = {1209-1211}, doi = {10.1113/EP090799}, pmid = {36029152}, issn = {1469-445X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Healthy Aging ; }, }
@article {pmid36028832, year = {2022}, author = {Landrigan, P and Bose-O'Reilly, S and Elbel, J and Nordberg, G and Lucchini, R and Bartrem, C and Grandjean, P and Mergler, D and Moyo, D and Nemery, B and von Braun, M and Nowak, D and , }, title = {Reducing disease and death from Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASM) - the urgent need for responsible mining in the context of growing global demand for minerals and metals for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {78}, pmid = {36028832}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Female ; Gold ; Humans ; *Mercury ; Metals ; Minerals ; Mining ; *Occupational Exposure ; }, abstract = {Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) takes place under extreme conditions with a lack of occupational health and safety. As the demand for metals is increasing due in part to their extensive use in 'green technologies' for climate change mitigation, the negative environmental and occupational consequences of mining practices are disproportionately felt in low- and middle-income countries. The Collegium Ramazzini statement on ASM presents updated information on its neglected health hazards that include multiple toxic hazards, most notably mercury, lead, cyanide, arsenic, cadmium, and cobalt, as well as physical hazards, most notably airborne dust and noise, and the high risk of infectious diseases. These hazards affect both miners and mining communities as working and living spaces are rarely separated. The impact on children and women is often severe, including hazardous exposures during the child-bearing age and pregnancies, and the risk of child labor. We suggest strategies for the mitigation of these hazards and classify those according to primordial, primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention. Further, we identify knowledge gaps and issue recommendations for international, national, and local governments, metal purchasers, and employers are given. With this statement, the Collegium Ramazzini calls for the extension of efforts to minimize all hazards that confront ASM miners and their families.}, }
@article {pmid36028464, year = {2022}, author = {Block, S and Maechler, MJ and Levine, JI and Alexander, JM and Pellissier, L and Levine, JM}, title = {Ecological lags govern the pace and outcome of plant community responses to 21st-century climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {25}, number = {10}, pages = {2156-2166}, pmid = {36028464}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {/SNSF_/Swiss National Science Foundation/Switzerland ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Forecasting the trajectories of species assemblages in response to ongoing climate change requires quantifying the time lags in the demographic and ecological processes through which climate impacts species' abundances. Since experimental climate manipulations are typically abrupt, the observed species responses may not match their responses to gradual climate change. We addressed this problem by transplanting alpine grassland turfs to lower elevations, recording species' demographic responses to climate and competition, and using these data to parameterise community dynamics models forced by scenarios of gradual climate change. We found that shifts in community structure following an abrupt climate manipulation were not simply accelerated versions of shifts expected under gradual warming, as the former missed the transient rise of species benefiting from moderate warming. Time lags in demography and species interactions controlled the pace and trajectory of changing species' abundances under simulated 21st-century climate change, and thereby prevented immediate diversity loss.}, }
@article {pmid36028250, year = {2022}, author = {Clark, H and Bachelet, M and Albares, JM}, title = {Conflict, climate change, and covid-19 combine to create a breeding ground for sexual and gender based violence.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {378}, number = {}, pages = {o2093}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2093}, pmid = {36028250}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Breeding ; *COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; *Gender-Based Violence ; Humans ; *Sex Offenses ; Sexual Behavior ; }, }
@article {pmid36027939, year = {2022}, author = {Peters, JS and Aguirre, BA and DiPaola, A and Power, AG}, title = {Ecology of Yellow Dwarf Viruses in Crops and Grasslands: Interactions in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of phytopathology}, volume = {60}, number = {}, pages = {283-305}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-phyto-020620-101848}, pmid = {36027939}, issn = {1545-2107}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aphids ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Ecosystem ; Grassland ; Insect Vectors ; *Luteovirus ; Plant Diseases ; *Plant Viruses ; }, abstract = {Our understanding of the ecological interactions between plant viruses, their insect vectors, and their host plants has increased rapidly over the past decade. The suite of viruses known collectively as the yellow dwarf viruses infect an extensive range of cultivated and noncultivated grasses worldwide and is one of the best-studied plant virus systems. The yellow dwarf viruses are ubiquitous in cereal crops, where they can significantly limit yields, and there is growing recognition that they are also ubiquitous in grassland ecosystems, where they can influence community dynamics. Here, we discuss recent research that has explored (a) the extent and impact of yellow dwarf viruses in a diversity of plant communities, (b) the role of vector behavior in virus transmission, and (c) the prospects for impacts of climate change-including rising temperatures, drought, and elevated CO2-on the epidemiology of yellow dwarf viruses.}, }
@article {pmid36027864, year = {2022}, author = {Du, Y and Zhang, J and Jueterbock, A and Duan, D}, title = {Prediction of the dynamic distribution for Eucheuma denticulatum (Rhodophyta, Solieriaceae) under climate change in the Indo-Pacific Ocean.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {180}, number = {}, pages = {105730}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105730}, pmid = {36027864}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Pacific Ocean ; *Rhodophyta ; *Seaweed ; }, abstract = {Eucheuma is one of the most important commercial red seaweeds in Southeast Asia, and plays an important role in the global seaweed aquaculture. It is expected to exhibit great responses to ocean warming. Here, we used maximum entropy species distribution models (SDMs) to estimate the suitable habitat of Eucheuma denticulatum under present conditions, and to predict the future range dynamics under the four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The best marine environmental factors for E. denticulatum distribution modeling were distance to shore, sea surface temperature and currents velocity. Our results showed that E. denticulatum' distributions would contract in the Central Indo-Pacific Ocean, especially the regions of the Sunda Shelf, while expanding poleward along the south coast of Australia in 2100. Our study provided important knowledge for the prediction of the tropical seaweed distribution, conservation and sustainable developments of E. denticulatum in the future.}, }
@article {pmid36018364, year = {2023}, author = {Daka, E}, title = {Adopting Clean Technologies to Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Africa: a Systematic Literature Review.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {71}, number = {1}, pages = {87-98}, pmid = {36018364}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Humans ; *Air Pollution, Indoor ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollution ; Africa ; Technology ; }, abstract = {The phenomenon of deforestation is occurring globally, in different types of forests, and for various reasons. In Africa, an estimated 90 per cent of the entire continent's population uses wood as a source energy for heating and cooking. However, the unsustainable harvesting of trees for heating energy not only contribute to forest and environmental degradation, but it is also a significant contributor to ill health, air pollution and climate change. Reducing the resulting adverse of ecological and health consequences will have to involve a mix of adopting renewable fuels and natural resource sustainable strategies. To date, implementing this mix has shown significant challenges, especially in developing countries. We performed this systematic literature review (SLR) to help us better understand how research is approaching this mix in Africa. We screened 792 articles resulting in a final selection of 34 studies concerned with environmental sciences. The review drew on qualitative, quantitative, and regional studies and applying a standardized method for screening, data extraction and synthesis. The findings reveal that current research focuses dominantly in four key areas: (1) renewable technology transfer, (2) climate change-adaptability, (3) climate policy, and (4) technology adoption. However, we identified a literature gap on the thin literature concerned with the impact of clean technologies to improving the environment and people's wellbeing. We propose planning a tool that would facilitate this process and suggest further research to incorporate monitoring its effectiveness.}, }
@article {pmid36018363, year = {2022}, author = {Brahic, E and Garms, M and Deuffic, P and Lyser, S and Mayer, M}, title = {How do inhabitants of mountain areas perceive climate change and forest dieback? A comparison between France and Germany.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {70}, number = {6}, pages = {896-910}, pmid = {36018363}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Germany ; *Coleoptera ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Forest dieback due to climate change has severe consequences for the sensitive environments of mountain forests which provide important ecosystem services for local communities, lowlands inhabitants, and visitors. However, this phenomenon is sometimes hard to identify for the lay public as it can manifest as a slow-onset phenomenon with rather inconspicuous signals or as large-scale disturbances like in the case of bark beetle outbreaks. The aim of this contribution is to analyze whether lay people perceive climate change-induced forest dieback in the landscape or not and what kind of damage they identify. To address this issue, we carried out a cross-comparison case-study in two mountain areas in France and Germany. To analyze the data, we introduce an innovative variable clustering approach to identify different groups of respondents based on their perception of climate change and forest dieback. Five groups of respondents-illustrating different degrees of worry-were identified in each case study: the non-alarmist, the carefree, the least informed, the worried, and the alarmist. These results show that both phenomena are not perceived as distant but as happening here and now; and that their perceptions are influenced by local contexts and personal experiences. We finally show that public perception of forest dieback has influenced the agenda setting on the enactment of new forest policies. Perception of climate change and forest dieback impacts: A graphical representation of the typologies.}, }
@article {pmid36017921, year = {2022}, author = {Pélissié, M and Johansson, F and Hyseni, C}, title = {Pushed Northward by Climate Change: Range Shifts With a Chance of Co-occurrence Reshuffling in the Forecast for Northern European Odonates.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {51}, number = {5}, pages = {910-921}, pmid = {36017921}, issn = {1938-2936}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Biodiversity ; *Odonata ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Biodiversity is heavily influenced by ongoing climate change, which often results in species undergoing range shifts, either poleward or uphill. Range shifts can occur provided suitable habitats exist within reach. However, poleward latitudinal shifts might be limited by additional abiotic or biotic constraints, such as increased seasonality, photoperiod patterns, and species interactions. To gain insight into the dynamics of insect range shifts at high latitudes, we constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) for 57 Odonata species occurring in northern Europe. We used citizen science data from Sweden and present-day climatic variables covering a latitudinal range of 1,575 km. Then, to measure changes in range and interactions among Odonata species, we projected the ENMs up to the year 2080. We also estimated potential changes in species interactions using niche overlap and co-occurrence patterns. We found that most Odonata species are predicted to expand their range northward. The average latitudinal shift is expected to reach 1.83 and 3.25 km y-1 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by 2061-2080. While the most warm-dwelling species may increase their range, our results indicate that cold-dwelling species will experience range contractions. The present-day niche overlap patterns among species will remain largely the same in the future. However, our results predict changes in co-occurrence patterns, with many species pairs showing increased co-occurrence, while others will no longer co-occur because of the range contractions. In sum, our ENM results suggest that species assemblages of Odonata-and perhaps insects in general-in northern latitudes will experience great compositional changes.}, }
@article {pmid36017264, year = {2022}, author = {Poggi, GM and Aloisi, I and Corneti, S and Esposito, E and Naldi, M and Fiori, J and Piana, S and Ventura, F}, title = {Climate change effects on bread wheat phenology and grain quality: A case study in the north of Italy.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {936991}, pmid = {36017264}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Increasing temperatures, heat waves, and reduction of annual precipitation are all the expressions of climate change (CC), strongly affecting bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grain yield in Southern Europe. Being temperature the major driving force of plants' phenological development, these variations also have effects on wheat phenology, with possible consequences on grain quality, and gluten protein accumulation. Here, through a case study in the Bolognese Plain (North of Italy), we assessed the effects of CC in the area, the impacts on bread wheat phenological development, and the consequences on grain gluten quality. The increasing trend in mean annual air temperature in the area since 1952 was significant, with a breakpoint identified in 1989, rising from 12.7 to 14.1°C, accompanied by the signals of increasing aridity, i.e., increase in water table depth. Bread wheat phenological development was compared in two 15-year periods before and after the breakpoint, i.e., 1952-1966 (past period), and 2006-2020 (present period), the latest characterized by aridity and increased temperatures. A significant shortening of the chronological time necessary to reach the main phenological phases was observed for the present period compared to the past period, finally shortening the whole life cycle. This reduction, as well as the higher temperature regime, affected gluten accumulation during the grain-filling process, as emerged analyzing gluten composition in grain samples of the same variety harvested in the area both before and after the breakpoint in temperature. In particular, the proportion of gluten polymers (i.e., gliadins, high and low molecular weight glutenins, and their ratio) showed a strong and significant correlation with cumulative growing degree days (CGDDs) accumulated during the grain filling. Higher CGDD values during the period, typical of CC in Southern Europe, accounting for higher temperature and faster grain filling, correlated with gliadins, high molecular weight glutenins, and their proportion with low molecular weight glutenins. In summary, herein reported, data might contribute to assessing the effects of CC on wheat phenology and quality, representing a tool for both predictive purposes and decision supporting systems for farmers, as well as can guide future breeding choices for varietal innovation.}, }
@article {pmid36017259, year = {2022}, author = {Pastore, C and Frioni, T and Diago, MP}, title = {Editorial: Resilience of grapevine to climate change: From plant physiology to adaptation strategies.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {994267}, pmid = {36017259}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid36016913, year = {2022}, author = {Peacock, SJ and Kutz, SJ and Hoar, BM and Molnár, PK}, title = {Behaviour is more important than thermal performance for an Arctic host-parasite system under climate change.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {220060}, pmid = {36016913}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Climate change is affecting Arctic ecosystems, including parasites. Predicting outcomes for host-parasite systems is challenging due to the complexity of multi-species interactions and the numerous, interacting pathways by which climate change can alter dynamics. Increasing temperatures may lead to faster development of free-living parasite stages but also higher mortality. Interactions between behavioural plasticity of hosts and parasites will also influence transmission processes. We combined laboratory experiments and population modelling to understand the impacts of changing temperatures on barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and their common helminth (Ostertagia gruehneri). We experimentally determined the thermal performance curves for mortality and development of free-living parasite stages and applied them in a spatial host-parasite model that also included behaviour of the parasite (propensity for arrested development in the host) and host (long-distance migration). Sensitivity analyses showed that thermal responses had less of an impact on simulated parasite burdens than expected, and the effect differed depending on parasite behaviour. The propensity for arrested development and host migration led to distinct spatio-temporal patterns in infection. These results emphasize the importance of considering behaviour-and behavioural plasticity-when projecting climate-change impacts on host-parasite systems.}, }
@article {pmid36016823, year = {2022}, author = {Ames-Martínez, FN and Luna-Vega, I and Dieringer, G and Rodríguez-Ramírez, EC}, title = {The effect of climate change on Arcto-Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {e9228}, pmid = {36016823}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Fagus mexicana Martínez (Mexican beech) is an endangered Arcto-Tertiary Geoflora tree species that inhabit isolated and fragmented tropical montane cloud forests in eastern Mexico. Exploring past, present, and future climate change effects on the distribution of Mexican beech involves the study of spatial ecology and temporal patterns to develop conservation plans. These are key to understanding the niche conservatism of other forest communities with similar environmental requirements. For this study, we used species distribution models by combining occurrence records, to assess the distribution patterns and changes of the past (Last Glacial Maximum), present (1981-2010), and future (2040-2070) periods under two climate scenarios (SSP 3-7.0 &amp; SSP 5-8.5). Next, we determined the habitat suitability and priority conservation areas of Mexican beech as associated with topography, land cover use, distance to the nearest town, and environmental variables. By considering the distribution of Mexican beech during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study estimated that high-impact areas of Mexican beech forests were restricted to specific areas of the Sierra Madre Oriental that constitute refugia from the Last Glacial Maximum. Regrettably, our results exhibited that Mexican beech distribution has decreased 71.3% since the Last Glacial Maximum and this trend will for the next 50 years, migrating to specific refugia at higher altitudes. This suggests that the states of Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Puebla will preserve the habitat suitability features as ecological refugia, related to high moisture and north-facing slopes. For isolated and difficult-to-access areas, the proposed methods are powerful tools for relict-tree species, which deserve further conservation.}, }
@article {pmid36013999, year = {2022}, author = {Jackson, R and Gabric, A}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on the Marine Cycling of Biogenic Sulfur: A Review.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {36013999}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {A key component of the marine sulfur cycle is the climate-active gas dimethylsulfide (DMS), which is synthesized by a range of organisms from phytoplankton to corals, and accounts for up to 80% of global biogenic sulfur emissions. The DMS cycle starts with the intracellular synthesis of the non-gaseous precursor dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP), which is released to the water column by various food web processes such as zooplankton grazing. This dissolved DMSP pool is rapidly turned over by microbially mediated conversion using two known pathways: demethylation (releasing methanethiol) and cleavage (producing DMS). Some of the formed DMS is ventilated to the atmosphere, where it undergoes rapid oxidation and contributes to the formation of sulfate aerosols, with the potential to affect cloud microphysics, and thus the regional climate. The marine phase cycling of DMS is complex, however, as heterotrophs also contribute to the consumption of the newly formed dissolved DMS. Interestingly, due to microbial consumption and other water column sinks such as photolysis, the amount of DMS that enters the atmosphere is currently thought to be a relatively minor fraction of the total amount cycled through the marine food web-less than 10%. These microbial processes are mediated by water column temperature, but the response of marine microbial assemblages to ocean warming is poorly characterized, although bacterial degradation appears to increase with an increase in temperature. This review will focus on the potential impact of climate change on the key microbially mediated processes in the marine cycling of DMS. It is likely that the impact will vary across different biogeographical regions from polar to tropical. For example, in the rapidly warming polar oceans, microbial communities associated with the DMS cycle will likely change dramatically during the 21st century with the decline in sea ice. At lower latitudes, where corals form an important source of DMS (P), shifts in the microbiome composition have been observed during thermal stress with the potential to alter the DMS cycle.}, }
@article {pmid36011923, year = {2022}, author = {Macassa, G and Ribeiro, AI and Marttila, A and Stål, F and Silva, JP and Rydback, M and Rashid, M and Barros, H}, title = {Public Health Aspects of Climate Change Adaptation in Three Cities: A Qualitative Study.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {16}, pages = {}, pmid = {36011923}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Aged ; Child ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change presents an unprecedented public health challenge as it has a great impact on population health outcomes across the global population. The key to addressing these health challenges is adaptation carried out in cities through collaboration between institutions, including public health ones. Through semi-structured interviews (n = 16), this study investigated experiences and perceptions of what public health aspects are considered by urban and public health planners and researchers when planning climate change adaptation in the coastal cities of Söderhamn (Sweden), Porto (Portugal) and Navotas (the Philippines). Results of the thematic analysis indicated that participating stakeholders were aware of the main climate risks threatening their cities (rising water levels and flooding, extreme temperatures, and air pollution). In addition, the interviewees talked about collaboration with other sectors, including the public health sector, in implementing climate change adaptation plans. However, the inclusion of the public health sector as a partner in the process was identified in only two cities, Navotas and Porto. Furthermore, the study found that there were few aspects pertaining to public health (water and sanitation, prevention of heat-related and water-borne diseases, and prevention of the consequences associated with heat waves in vulnerable groups such as children and elderly persons) in the latest climate change adaptation plans posted on each city's website. Moreover, participants pointed to different difficulties: insufficient financial resources, limited intersectoral collaboration for climate change adaptation, and lack of involvement of the public health sector in the adaptation processes, especially in one of the cities in which climate change adaptation was solely the responsibility of the urban planners. Studies using larger samples of stakeholders in larger cities are needed to better understand why the public health sector is still almost absent in efforts to adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid36011913, year = {2022}, author = {Lin, MS and Lin, YC and Huang, TJ and Chen, MY}, title = {Health Inequality among Fishery Workers during Climate Change: A National Population-Based and Retrospective Longitudinal Cohort Study.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {16}, pages = {}, pmid = {36011913}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Carcinoma, Hepatocellular ; *Cardiovascular Diseases ; Climate Change ; Cohort Studies ; Fisheries ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; *Liver Neoplasms ; Longitudinal Studies ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Background: Owing to specific working environments, it is important to attain sustainable development goals for the health of fishery workers during climate change. Fishery workers have a hazardous working environment, leading to specific injuries and fatal events. However, limited studies have investigated the health status of fishery workers through long-term longitudinal follow-up and compared it with that of farmers and employed workers with similar socioeconomic status. Methods: The Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000, a subset of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database was used for this retrospective cohort study. Only fishery workers, farmers, and employed workers were included. Based on the majority of causes of death and related diseases, participants newly diagnosed with 18 diseases, classified into cardiometabolic diseases, mental illness, chronic kidney disease, infection, and malignancy, were included. Participants with an old diagnosis of these diseases were excluded. All included participants were followed up from 1 July 2000 to the diagnosis and withdrawal date, or 31 December 2012, whichever occurred first. Due to the substantial difference in the baseline demographics, we executed a cohort study with propensity score-matched and applied the Cox model to explore the participants’ health status. Results: After matching, there were negligible differences in the baseline demographics of fishery workers, farmers, and employed workers. Compared to farmers and employed workers, fishery workers were more frequently diagnosed with 11 and 14 diseases, respectively, such as hypertension (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.11, p < 0.01), diabetes (HR: 1.21, p < 0.001), dyslipidemia (HR: 1.18, p < 0.001), depression (HR: 1.38, p < 0.001), peptic ulcer (HR: 1.17, p < 0.001), chronic viral hepatitis (HR: 2.06, p < 0.001), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR: 1.67, p < 0.001), and total malignancy (HR: 1.26, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Compared to farmers and employed workers, fishery workers were more impacted by cardiometabolic diseases, mental illness, infection, and malignancy. Therefore, it is imperative to specifically focus on health policies for fishery workers, such as providing curable antiviral treatment and initiating culture-tailored health promotion programs, to mitigate health inequality.}, }
@article {pmid36011495, year = {2022}, author = {Chandio, AA and Nasereldin, YA and Anh, DLT and Tang, Y and Sargani, GR and Zhang, H}, title = {The Impact of Technological Progress and Climate Change on Food Crop Production: Evidence from Sichuan-China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {16}, pages = {}, pmid = {36011495}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production ; Crops, Agricultural ; Edible Grain/chemistry ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Humans ; *Oryza ; Triticum ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Agriculture is an integral sector in China mandated to feed over 1.3 billion of its people and provide essential inputs for many industries. Sichuan, a central grain-producing province in Southwest China, is a significant supplier of cereals in the country. Yet, it is likely to be threatened by yield damages induced by climate change. Therefore, this study examines the effects of technological progress (via fertilizers usage and mechanization) and climatic changes (via temperature and precipitation) on the productivity of main food crops, such as rice (Oryza sativa), wheat (Triticum aestivum), and maize (Zea mays) in Sichuan province. We employ the generalized method of moments (GMM) model to analyze Sichuan provincial data from 1980 to 2018. Our findings show a positive nexus between fertilizers use and yields of main food crops. Only rice and maize yields are significantly improved by mechanization. Increased average temperature reduces rice and wheat yields significantly. Rainfall is unlikely to have a significant impact on agricultural production. The study suggests that the Chinese government should consider revising its strategies and policies to reduce the impact of climate change on food crop production and increase farmers' adaptive ability.}, }
@article {pmid36008549, year = {2022}, author = {Uhl, B and Wölfling, M and Bässler, C}, title = {Mediterranean moth diversity is sensitive to increasing temperatures and drought under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {14473}, pmid = {36008549}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Insecta ; *Moths ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects ecosystems worldwide and is threatening biodiversity. Insects, as ectotherm organisms, are strongly dependent on the thermal environment. Yet, little is known about the effects of summer heat and drought on insect diversity. In the Mediterranean climate zone, a region strongly affected by climate change, hot summers might have severe effects on insect communities. Especially the larval stage might be sensitive to thermal variation, as larvae-compared to other life stages-cannot avoid hot temperatures and drought by dormancy. Here we ask, whether inter-annual fluctuations in Mediterranean moth diversity can be explained by temperature (TLarv) and precipitation during larval development (HLarv). To address our question, we analyzed moth communities of a Mediterranean coastal forest during the last 20 years. For species with summer-developing larvae, species richness was significantly negatively correlated with TLarv, while the community composition was affected by both, TLarv and HLarv. Therefore, summer-developing larvae seem particularly sensitive to climate change, as hot summers might exceed the larval temperature optima and drought reduces food plant quality. Increasing frequency and severity of temperature and drought extremes due to climate change, therefore, might amplify insect decline in the future.}, }
@article {pmid36008420, year = {2022}, author = {Weyhenmeyer, GA and Obertegger, U and Rudebeck, H and Jakobsson, E and Jansen, J and Zdorovennova, G and Bansal, S and Block, BD and Carey, CC and Doubek, JP and Dugan, H and Erina, O and Fedorova, I and Fischer, JM and Grinberga, L and Grossart, HP and Kangur, K and Knoll, LB and Laas, A and Lepori, F and Meier, J and Palshin, N and Peternell, M and Pulkkanen, M and Rusak, JA and Sharma, S and Wain, D and Zdorovennov, R}, title = {Towards critical white ice conditions in lakes under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {4974}, pmid = {36008420}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Global Warming ; Humans ; *Ice ; Ice Cover ; *Lakes ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The quality of lake ice is of uppermost importance for ice safety and under-ice ecology, but its temporal and spatial variability is largely unknown. Here we conducted a coordinated lake ice quality sampling campaign across the Northern Hemisphere during one of the warmest winters since 1880 and show that lake ice during 2020/2021 commonly consisted of unstable white ice, at times contributing up to 100% to the total ice thickness. We observed that white ice increased over the winter season, becoming thickest and constituting the largest proportion of the ice layer towards the end of the ice cover season when fatal winter drownings occur most often and light limits the growth and reproduction of primary producers. We attribute the dominance of white ice before ice-off to air temperatures varying around the freezing point, a condition which occurs more frequently during warmer winters. Thus, under continued global warming, the prevalence of white ice is likely to substantially increase during the critical period before ice-off, for which we adjusted commonly used equations for human ice safety and light transmittance through ice.}, }
@article {pmid36008390, year = {2022}, author = {Smiley, KT and Noy, I and Wehner, MF and Frame, D and Sampson, CC and Wing, OEJ}, title = {Social inequalities in climate change-attributed impacts of Hurricane Harvey.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {3418}, pmid = {36008390}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Floods ; Hydrology ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already increasing the severity of extreme weather events such as with rainfall during hurricanes. But little research to date investigates if, and to what extent, there are social inequalities in climate change-attributed extreme weather event impacts. Here, we use climate change attribution science paired with hydrological flood models to estimate climate change-attributed flood depths and damages during Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. Using detailed land-parcel and census tract socio-economic data, we then describe the socio-spatial characteristics associated with these climate change-induced impacts. We show that 30 to 50% of the flooded properties would not have flooded without climate change. Climate change-attributed impacts were particularly felt in Latina/x/o neighborhoods, and especially so in Latina/x/o neighborhoods that were low-income and among those located outside of FEMA's 100-year floodplain. Our focus is thus on climate justice challenges that not only concern future climate change-induced risks, but are already affecting vulnerable populations disproportionately now.}, }
@article {pmid36007386, year = {2022}, author = {Januchowski-Hartley, SR and Pawar, SK and Yang, X and Jorissen, M and Bristol, R and Mantel, S and White, JC and Januchowski-Hartley, FA and Roces-Díaz, JV and Gomez, CC and Pregnolato, M}, title = {Supporting proactive planning for climate change adaptation and conservation using an attributed road-river structure dataset.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {321}, number = {}, pages = {115959}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115959}, pmid = {36007386}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Floods ; Humans ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Freshwater species and their habitats, and transportation networks are at heightened risk from changing climate and are priorities for adaptation, with the sheer abundance and individuality of road-river structures complicating mitigation efforts. We present a new spatial dataset of road-river structures attributed as culverts, bridges, or fords, and use this along with data on gradient and stream order to estimate structure sensitivity and exposure in and out of special areas of conservation (SAC) and built-up areas to determine vulnerability to damage across river catchments in Wales, UK. We then assess hazard of flooding likelihood at the most vulnerable structures to determine those posing high risk of impact on roads and river-obligate species (fishes and mussels) whose persistence depends on aquatic habitat connectivity. Over 5% (624/11,680) of structures are high vulnerability and located where flooding hazard is highest, posing high risk of impact to roads and river-obligate species. We assess reliability of our approach through an on-ground survey in a river catchment supporting an SAC and more than 40% (n = 255) of high-risk structures, and show that of the subset surveyed >50% had obvious physical degradation, streambank erosion, and scouring. Our findings help us to better understand which structures pose high-risk of impact to river-obligate species and humans with increased flooding likelihood.}, }
@article {pmid36006364, year = {2022}, author = {Sapkota, S and Acharya, KP and Laven, R and Acharya, N}, title = {Possible Consequences of Climate Change on Survival, Productivity and Reproductive Performance, and Welfare of Himalayan Yak (Bos grunniens).}, journal = {Veterinary sciences}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {36006364}, issn = {2306-7381}, abstract = {Yak are adapted to the extreme cold, low oxygen, and high solar radiation of the Himalaya. Traditionally, they are kept at high altitude pastures during summer, moving lower in the winter. This system is highly susceptible to climate change, which has increased ambient temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and increased the occurrence of natural disasters. Changes in temperature and precipitation reduced the yield and productivity of alpine pastures, principally because the native plant species are being replaced by less useful shrubs and weeds. The impact of climate change on yak is likely to be mediated through heat stress, increased contact with other species, especially domestic cattle, and alterations in feed availability. Yak have a very low temperature humidity index (52 vs. 72 for cattle) and a narrow thermoneutral range (5-13 °C), so climate change has potentially exposed yak to heat stress in summer and winter. Heat stress is likely to affect both reproductive performance and milk production, but we lack the data to quantify such effects. Increased contact with other species, especially domestic cattle, is likely to increase disease risk. This is likely to be exacerbated by other climate-change-associated factors, such as increases in vector-borne disease, because of increases in vector ranges, and overcrowding associated with reduced pasture availability. However, lack of baseline yak disease data means it is difficult to quantify these changes in disease risk and the few papers claiming to have identified such increases do not provide robust evidence of increased diseases. The reduction in feed availability in traditional pastures may be thought to be the most obvious impact of climate change on yak; however, it is clear that such a reduction is not solely due to climate change, with socio-economic factors likely being more important. This review has highlighted the large potential negative impact of climate change on yak, and the lack of data quantifying that impact. More research on the impact of climate change in yak is needed. Attention also needs to be paid to developing mitigating strategies, which may include changes in the traditional system such as providing shelter and supplementary feed and, in marginal areas, increased use of yak-cattle hybrids.}, }
@article {pmid36006264, year = {2022}, author = {Faridah, L and Suroso, DSA and Fitriyanto, MS and Andari, CD and Fauzi, I and Kurniawan, Y and Watanabe, K}, title = {Optimal Validated Multi-Factorial Climate Change Risk Assessment for Adaptation Planning and Evaluation of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Indonesia.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {7}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {36006264}, issn = {2414-6366}, support = {JPJSCCB20210006//the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Core-to-Core Program B Asia-Africa Science Platforms (JPJSCCB20210006), and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Tech-nology, Japan (MEXT) to a project on Joint Usage/Research Center/ ; }, abstract = {(1) Background: This paper will present an elaboration of the risk assessment methodology by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ), Eurac Research and United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) for the assessment of dengue. (2) Methods: We validate the risk assessment model by best-fitting it with the number of dengue cases per province using the least-square fitting method. Seven out of thirty-four provinces in Indonesia were chosen (North Sumatra, Jakarta Capital, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Bali and East Kalimantan). (3) Results: A risk assessment based on the number of dengue cases showed an increased risk in 2010, 2015 and 2016 in which the effects of El Nino and La Nina extreme climates occurred. North Sumatra, Bali, and West Java were more influenced by the vulnerability component, in line with their risk analysis that tends to be lower than the other provinces in 2010, 2015 and 2016 when El Nino and La Nina occurred. (4) Conclusion: Based on data from the last ten years, in Jakarta Capital, Central Java, East Java and East Kalimantan, dengue risks were mainly influenced by the climatic hazard component while North Sumatra, Bali and West Java were more influenced by the vulnerability component.}, }
@article {pmid36006236, year = {2022}, author = {Nji, QN and Babalola, OO and Mwanza, M}, title = {Aflatoxins in Maize: Can Their Occurrence Be Effectively Managed in Africa in the Face of Climate Change and Food Insecurity?.}, journal = {Toxins}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {36006236}, issn = {2072-6651}, mesh = {*Aflatoxins ; Africa ; Artificial Intelligence ; Climate Change ; Food Contamination/analysis ; Food Insecurity ; *Mycotoxins/analysis ; Zea mays/microbiology ; }, abstract = {The dangers of population-level mycotoxin exposure have been well documented. Climate-sensitive aflatoxins (AFs) are important food hazards. The continual effects of climate change are projected to impact primary agricultural systems, and consequently food security. This will be due to a reduction in yield with a negative influence on food safety. The African climate and subsistence farming techniques favour the growth of AF-producing fungal genera particularly in maize, which is a food staple commonly associated with mycotoxin contamination. Predictive models are useful tools in the management of mycotoxin risk. Mycotoxin climate risk predictive models have been successfully developed in Australia, the USA, and Europe, but are still in their infancy in Africa. This review aims to investigate whether AFs' occurrence in African maize can be effectively mitigated in the face of increasing climate change and food insecurity using climate risk predictive studies. A systematic search is conducted using Google Scholar. The complexities associated with the development of these prediction models vary from statistical tools such as simple regression equations to complex systems such as artificial intelligence models. Africa's inability to simulate a climate mycotoxin risk model in the past has been attributed to insufficient climate or AF contamination data. Recently, however, advancement in technologies including artificial intelligence modelling has bridged this gap, as climate risk scenarios can now be correctly predicted from missing and unbalanced data.}, }
@article {pmid36003054, year = {2023}, author = {Fraser, BC and Sharman, R and Nunn, PD}, title = {Associations of locus of control, information processing style and anti-reflexivity with climate change scepticism in an Australian sample.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {32}, number = {3}, pages = {322-339}, doi = {10.1177/09636625221116502}, pmid = {36003054}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Humans ; Male ; Adult ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Internal-External Control ; Trust ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {A proportion of the Australian public remains sceptical about the reality of climate change, its causes, impacts and the need for mitigatory action. To date, scepticism research largely focuses on factors highly resistant to change, particularly socio-demographic and value factors. This mixed-methods study investigated whether more malleable psychological factors: locus of control; information processing style; and anti-reflexivity, predicted climate change scepticism above and beyond socio-demographic and value factors. A sample of 390 participants (Mean age = 41.31, standard deviation = 18.72; 230 male) completed an electronic survey. Using hierarchical regression, trust in forces of anti-reflexivity and external locus of control predicted impact scepticism. Decreased trust in forces of reflexivity also predicted attribution and impact scepticism. Finally, external locus of control predicted response scepticism. Key qualitative themes identified were, trust in alternative science; mistrust of climate science; belief in natural cycles; predictions not becoming reality; and ulterior motives of interested parties.}, }
@article {pmid36002465, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, H and Väliranta, M and Swindles, GT and Aquino-López, MA and Mullan, D and Tan, N and Amesbury, M and Babeshko, KV and Bao, K and Bobrov, A and Chernyshov, V and Davies, MA and Diaconu, AC and Feurdean, A and Finkelstein, SA and Garneau, M and Guo, Z and Jones, MC and Kay, M and Klein, ES and Lamentowicz, M and Magnan, G and Marcisz, K and Mazei, N and Mazei, Y and Payne, R and Pelletier, N and Piilo, SR and Pratte, S and Roland, T and Saldaev, D and Shotyk, W and Sim, TG and Sloan, TJ and Słowiński, M and Talbot, J and Taylor, L and Tsyganov, AN and Wetterich, S and Xing, W and Zhao, Y}, title = {Recent climate change has driven divergent hydrological shifts in high-latitude peatlands.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {4959}, pmid = {36002465}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Amoeba ; Climate Change ; Hydrology ; *Permafrost ; Soil ; }, abstract = {High-latitude peatlands are changing rapidly in response to climate change, including permafrost thaw. Here, we reconstruct hydrological conditions since the seventeenth century using testate amoeba data from 103 high-latitude peat archives. We show that 54% of the peatlands have been drying and 32% have been wetting over this period, illustrating the complex ecohydrological dynamics of high latitude peatlands and their highly uncertain responses to a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid36001585, year = {2022}, author = {Duan, Q and McGrory, CA and Brown, G and Mengersen, K and Wang, YG}, title = {Spatio-temporal quantile regression analysis revealing more nuanced patterns of climate change: A study of long-term daily temperature in Australia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {8}, pages = {e0271457}, pmid = {36001585}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Regression Analysis ; Seasons ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Many studies have considered temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period and hence lacking in in-depth analysis of the latent trends. For example, in addition to heterogeneity in mean and median values, daily temperature data often exhibit quasi-periodic heterogeneity in variance, which has largely been overlooked in climate research. To this end, we propose a joint model of quantile regression and variability. By accounting appropriately for the heterogeneity in these types of data, our analysis using Australian data reveals that daily maximum temperature is warming by ∼0.21°C per decade and daily minimum temperature by ∼0.13°C per decade. More interestingly, our modeling also shows nuanced patterns of change over space and time depending on location, season, and the percentiles of the temperature series.}, }
@article {pmid36001122, year = {2022}, author = {von Hirschhausen, E and Lerch, MM}, title = {[Conversation on the impact of climate change on medicine and mankind].}, journal = {Radiologie (Heidelberg, Germany)}, volume = {62}, number = {9}, pages = {786-788}, doi = {10.1007/s00117-022-01061-z}, pmid = {36001122}, issn = {2731-7056}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; *Medicine ; }, }
@article {pmid36000226, year = {2022}, author = {Addy, JWG and Ellis, RH and MacLaren, C and Macdonald, AJ and Semenov, MA and Mead, A}, title = {A heteroskedastic model of Park Grass spring hay yields in response to weather suggests continuing yield decline with climate change in future decades.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society, Interface}, volume = {19}, number = {193}, pages = {20220361}, pmid = {36000226}, issn = {1742-5662}, support = {BBS/E/C/000J0300/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; *Poaceae/physiology ; Seasons ; Weather ; }, abstract = {UK grasslands perform important environmental and economic functions, but their future productivity under climate change is uncertain. Spring hay yields from 1902 to 2016 at one site (the Park Grass Long Term Experiment) in southern England under four different fertilizer regimes were modelled in response to weather (seasonal temperature and rainfall). The modelling approach applied comprised: (1) a Bayesian model comparison to model parametrically the heteroskedasticity in a gamma likelihood function; (2) a Bayesian varying intercept multiple regression model with an autoregressive lag one process (to incorporate the effect of productivity in the previous year) of the response of hay yield to weather from 1902 to 2016. The model confirmed that warmer and drier years, specifically, autumn, winter and spring, in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries reduced yield. The model was applied to forecast future spring hay yields at Park Grass under different climate change scenarios (HadGEM2 and GISS RCP 4.5 and 8.5). This application indicated that yields are forecast to decline further between 2020 and 2080, by as much as 48-50%. These projections are specific to Park Grass, but implied a severe reduction in grassland productivity in southern England with climate change during the twenty-first century.}, }
@article {pmid35999200, year = {2022}, author = {Frantz, CM}, title = {To create serious movement on climate change, we must dispel the myth of indifference.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {4780}, pmid = {35999200}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Movement ; }, abstract = {Public underestimation of support for climate change policy is striking. Social science research tells us this is bad news, but also tells us what to do about it. Climate change communication must hammer home the overwhelming support for action.}, }
@article {pmid35997987, year = {2023}, author = {Ranius, T and Widenfalk, LA and Seedre, M and Lindman, L and Felton, A and Hämäläinen, A and Filyushkina, A and Öckinger, E}, title = {Protected area designation and management in a world of climate change: A review of recommendations.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {52}, number = {1}, pages = {68-80}, pmid = {35997987}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {2017-01952//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; 2019-02007//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Biodiversity ; Refugium ; }, abstract = {Climate change is challenging conservation strategies for protected areas. To summarise current guidance, we systematically compiled recommendations from reviews of scientific literature (74 reviews fitting inclusion criteria) about how to adapt conservation strategies in the face of climate change. We focussed on strategies for designation and management of protected areas in terrestrial landscapes, in boreal and temperate regions. Most recommendations belonged to one of five dominating categories: (i) Ensure sufficient connectivity; (ii) Protect climate refugia; (iii) Protect a few large rather than many small areas; (iv) Protect areas predicted to become important for biodiversity in the future; and (v) Complement permanently protected areas with temporary protection. The uncertainties and risks caused by climate change imply that additional conservation efforts are necessary to reach conservation goals. To protect biodiversity in the future, traditional biodiversity conservation strategies should be combined with strategies purposely developed in response to a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid35996468, year = {2022}, author = {Liu, T and Shryane, N and Elliot, M}, title = {Attitudes to climate change risk: classification of and transitions in the UK population between 2012 and 2020.}, journal = {Humanities &amp; social sciences communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {279}, pmid = {35996468}, issn = {2662-9992}, abstract = {Strategies for achieving carbon emissions goals presuppose changes in individual behaviour, which can be indirectly nudged by interventions or tailored information but ultimately depend upon individual attitudes. Specifically, the perception that climate change is low risk has been identified as a barrier to participation in climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts. Therefore, understanding public attitudes towards climate change risk is an important element of reducing emissions. We applied k-means cluster analysis to explore attitudes to climate change risk in the UK population using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, a national survey running from 2009 to present. We identified three distinct attitude clusters: "Sceptical", "Concerned", and "Paradoxical" in both waves 4 (from 2012 to 2014) and 10 (from 2018 to 2020) of this survey. The Sceptical cluster tended to deny the seriousness of climate change and the urgency or even the necessity of dealing with it. The Concerned cluster displayed anxiety about climate change risks and supported action to reduce them. The Paradoxical cluster acknowledged the reality of climate change impacts but did not support actions to mitigate them. We further observed statistical associations between cluster membership and the social characteristics of the participants, including sex, age, income, education, and political affiliation. We also found a temporal stability of cluster structure between the two waves. However, the transition matrices indicated a general transition away from the Sceptical and Paradoxical clusters, and toward the Concerned cluster between wave 4 to wave 10. The findings suggest that more tailored public information campaigns regarding climate change risk may be necessary.}, }
@article {pmid35996299, year = {2022}, author = {Ratner, J and Westfallen, V and Aguilar, S and Schlegelmilch, J}, title = {Remote work and climate change: Considerations for grid resilience in the 21st century.}, journal = {Journal of business continuity &amp; emergency planning}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {53-61}, pmid = {35996299}, issn = {1749-9216}, mesh = {*COVID-19/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Disaster Planning ; Humans ; Pandemics ; }, abstract = {This paper explores how the unprecedented dependence on remote work since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the demand for electricity. The paper discusses how the increased dependence on information and communication technologies has driven a shift in the daytime demand for power, from the commercial sector to the residential sector, prompting changes in the way electric utilities plan for peak load demand. As the article goes on to argue, this exposes the growing need for greater grid resilience in order to safeguard the supply of electricity in the face of increasingly frequent potential disruptions such as extreme weather events. The paper finds that emergency planners and responders, public agencies, utilities and other public and private sector stakeholders will need to collaborate ever more closely when devising and implementing solutions as well as when responding to emergencies.}, }
@article {pmid35995833, year = {2022}, author = {Feeley, KJ and Zuleta, D}, title = {Changing forests under climate change.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {984-985}, pmid = {35995833}, issn = {2055-0278}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid35995829, year = {2022}, author = {Khedher, KM and Abu-Taweel, GM and Al-Fifi, Z and Qoradi, MD and Al-Khafaji, Z and Halder, B and Bandyopadhyay, J and Shahid, S and Essaied, L and Yaseen, ZM}, title = {Farasan Island of Saudi Arabia confronts the measurable impacts of global warming in 45 years.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {14322}, pmid = {35995829}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Indian Ocean ; Saudi Arabia ; }, abstract = {Coastal vulnerability assessment is the key to coastal management and sustainable development. Sea level rise (SLR) and anthropogenic activities have triggered more extreme climatic events and made the coastal region vulnerable in recent decades. Many parts of the world also noticed increased sediment deposition, tidal effects, and changes in the shoreline. Farasan Island, located in the south-eastern part of Saudi Arabia, experienced changes in sediment deposition from the Red Sea in recent years. This study used Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) to delineate the shoreline changes of Farasan Island during 1975-2020. Multi-temporal Landsat data and DSAS were used for shoreline calculation based on endpoint rate (EPR) and linear regression. Results revealed an increase in vegetation area on the island by 17.18 km[2] during 1975-1989 and then a decrease by 69.85 km[2] during 1990-2020. The built-up land increased by 5.69 km[2] over the study period to accommodate the population growth. The annual temperature showed an increase at a rate of 0.196 °C/year. The sea-level rise caused a shift in the island's shoreline and caused a reduction of land by 80.86 km[2] during 1975-2020. The highly influenced areas by the environmental changes were the north, central, northwest, southwest, and northeast parts of the island. Urban expansion and sea-level rise gradually influence the island ecosystem, which needs proper attention, management, policies, and awareness planning to protect the environment of Farasan Island. Also, the study's findings could help develop new strategies and plan climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid35994643, year = {2022}, author = {Delworth, TL and Cooke, WF and Naik, V and Paynter, D and Zhang, L}, title = {A weakened AMOC may prolong greenhouse gas-induced Mediterranean drying even with significant and rapid climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {35}, pages = {e2116655119}, pmid = {35994643}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Greenhouse Gases/adverse effects/analysis ; Ice Cover ; Mediterranean Region ; *Rain ; Seasons ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate hot spot, with models projecting a robust warming and rainfall decline in response to increasing greenhouse gases. The projected rainfall decline would have impacts on agriculture and water resources. Can such changes be reversed with significant reductions in greenhouse gases? To explore this, we examine large ensembles of a high-resolution climate model with various future radiative forcing scenarios, including a scenario with substantial reductions in greenhouse gas concentrations beginning in the mid-21st century. In response to greenhouse gas reductions, the Mediterranean summer rainfall decline is reversed, but the winter rainfall decline continues. This continued winter rainfall decline results from a persistent atmospheric anticyclone over the western Mediterranean. Using additional numerical experiments, we show that the anticyclone and continued winter rainfall decline are attributable to greenhouse gas-induced weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that continues throughout the 21st century. The persistently weak AMOC, in concert with greenhouse gas reductions, leads to rapid cooling and sea ice growth in the subpolar North Atlantic. This cooling leads to a strong cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and, via atmospheric teleconnections, to the anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Mediterranean. The failure to reverse the winter rainfall decline, despite substantial climate change mitigation, is an example of a "surprise" in the climate system. In this case, a persistent AMOC change unexpectedly impedes the reversibility of Mediterranean climate change. Such surprises could complicate pathways toward full climate recovery.}, }
@article {pmid35992407, year = {2022}, author = {Seyranian, V and Lombardi, D and Sinatra, GM and Crano, WD}, title = {Optimizing climate change communication: Context Comparison Model method.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {897460}, pmid = {35992407}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {The Context Comparison Model (CCM) provides a promising avenue to guide persuasive communication development by highlighting the features of the communication context that require consideration, including source, target, and task variables. The model was tested in a study of global climate change. American participants read a text outlining scientific evidence for global climate change and a policy proposal to mitigate future climate change. Prior to reading the text, participants' completed measures of their political affiliation (Republican, Democrats, Independent or Other) to render their group memberships salient. They were randomly assigned to one of four source conditions: (a) ingroup minority; (b) ingroup majority; (c) outgroup minority; or (d) outgroup minority. Participants completed pre- and post-measures of attitudes and the plausibility of climate change. Pretest scores revealed that global climate change attitudes were held less strongly by Republicans than Democrats. In line with expectations, participants' subjective attitudes were more influenced by ingroup sources, and larger persuasive effects were obtained for ingroup minorities. For the plausibility of climate change, participants were more persuaded by an outgroup source, and larger effects were evident for outgroup majorities. Results were precisely predicted by the CCM. Their implications for science communication were discussed.}, }
@article {pmid35991412, year = {2022}, author = {Lu, X and Jiang, R and Zhang, G}, title = {Predicting the potential distribution of four endangered holoparasites and their primary hosts in China under climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {942448}, pmid = {35991412}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change affects parasitic plants and their hosts on distributions. However, little is known about how parasites and their hosts shift in distribution, and niche overlap in response to global change remains unclear to date. Here, the potential distribution and habitat suitability of four endangered holoparasites and their primary hosts in northern China were predicted using MaxEnt based on occurrence records and bioclimatic variables. The results indicated that (1) Temperature annual range (Bio7) and Precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were identified as the common key climatic factors influencing distribution (percentage contribution > 10%) for Cynomorium songaricum vs. Nitraria sibirica (i.e., parasite vs. host); Temperature seasonality (Bio4) and Precipitation of driest month (Bio14) for Boschniakia rossica vs. Alnus mandshurica; Bio4 for Cistanche deserticola vs. Haloxylon ammodendron; Precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18) for Cistanche mongolica vs. Tamarix ramosissima. Accordingly, different parasite-host pairs share to varying degree the common climatic factors. (2) Currently, these holoparasites had small suitable habitats (i.e., moderately and highly) (0.97-3.77%), with few highly suitable habitats (0.19-0.81%). Under future scenarios, their suitable habitats would change to some extent; their distribution shifts fell into two categories: growing type (Boschniakia rossica and Cistanche mongolica) and fluctuating type (Cynomorium songaricum and Cistanche deserticola). In contrast, the hosts' current suitable habitats (1.42-13.43%) varied greatly, with highly restricted suitable habitats (0.18-1.00%). Under future scenarios, their suitable habitats presented different trends: growing type (Nitraria sibirica), declining type (Haloxylon ammodendron) and fluctuating type (the other hosts). (3) The niche overlaps between parasites and hosts differed significantly in the future, which can be grouped into two categories: growing type (Boschniakia rossica vs. Alnus mandshurica, Cistanche mongolica vs. Tamarix ramosissima), and fluctuating type (the others). Such niche overlap asynchronies may result in severe spatial limitations of parasites under future climate conditions. Our findings indicate that climate factors restricting parasites and hosts' distributions, niche overlaps between them, together with parasitic species identity, may jointly influence the suitable habitats of parasitic plants. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account the threatened holoparasites themselves in conjunction with their suitable habitats and the parasite-host association when developing conservation planning in the future.}, }
@article {pmid35991411, year = {2022}, author = {Frisk, CA and Xistris-Songpanya, G and Osborne, M and Biswas, Y and Melzer, R and Yearsley, JM}, title = {Phenotypic variation from waterlogging in multiple perennial ryegrass varieties under climate change conditions.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {954478}, pmid = {35991411}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Identifying how various components of climate change will influence ecosystems and vegetation subsistence will be fundamental to mitigate negative effects. Climate change-induced waterlogging is understudied in comparison to temperature and CO2. Grasslands are especially vulnerable through the connection with global food security, with perennial ryegrass dominating many flood-prone pasturelands in North-western Europe. We investigated the effect of long-term waterlogging on phenotypic responses of perennial ryegrass using four common varieties (one diploid and three tetraploid) grown in atmospherically controlled growth chambers during two months of peak growth. The climate treatments compare ambient climatological conditions in North-western Europe to the RCP8.5 climate change scenario in 2050 (+2°C and 550 ppm CO2). At the end of each month multiple phenotypic plant measurements were made, the plants were harvested and then allowed to grow back. Using image analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) methodologies, we assessed how multiple predictors (phenotypic, environmental, genotypic, and temporal) influenced overall plant performance, productivity and phenotypic responses. Long-term waterlogging was found to reduce leaf-color intensity, with younger plants having purple hues indicative of anthocyanins. Plant performance and yield was lower in waterlogged plants, with tetraploid varieties coping better than the diploid one. The climate change treatment was found to reduce color intensities further. Flooding was found to reduce plant productivity via reductions in color pigments and root proliferation. These effects will have negative consequences for global food security brought on by increased frequency of extreme weather events and flooding. Our imaging analysis approach to estimate effects of waterlogging can be incorporated into plant health diagnostics tools via remote sensing and drone-technology.}, }
@article {pmid35991347, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {Climate change exacerbates almost two-thirds of pathogenic diseases affecting humans.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {791-792}, pmid = {35991347}, issn = {1758-678X}, abstract = {A comprehensive and systematic literature review reveals that over 58% of human pathogenic diseases are aggravated by climatic hazards that are sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid35991283, year = {2022}, author = {Shrestha, UB and Lamsal, P and Ghimire, SK and Shrestha, BB and Dhakal, S and Shrestha, S and Atreya, K}, title = {Climate change-induced distributional change of medicinal and aromatic plants in the Nepal Himalaya.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {e9204}, pmid = {35991283}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) contribute to human well-being via health and economic benefits. Nepal has recorded 2331 species of MAPs, of which around 300 species are currently under trade. Wild harvested MAPs in Nepal are under increasing pressure from overexploitation for trade and the effects of climate change and development. Despite some localized studies to examine the impact of climate change on MAPs, a consolidated understanding is lacking on how the distribution of major traded species of MAPs will change with future climate change. This study identifies the potential distribution of 29 species of MAPs in Nepal under current and future climate using an ensemble modeling and hotspot approach. Future climate change will reduce climatically suitable areas of two-third of the studied species and decrease climatically suitable hotspots across elevation, physiography, ecoregions, federal states, and protected areas in Nepal. Reduction in climatically suitable areas for MAPs might have serious consequences for the livelihood of people that depend on the collection and trade of MAPs as well as Nepal's national economy. Therefore, it is imperative to consider the threats that future climate change may have on distribution of MAPs while designing protected areas and devising environmental conservation and climate adaptation policies.}, }
@article {pmid35991044, year = {2022}, author = {Hayashi, K and Fujimoto, M and Nishiura, H}, title = {Quantifying the future risk of dengue under climate change in Japan.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {959312}, pmid = {35991044}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {*Aedes/physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Japan/epidemiology ; Mosquito Vectors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In metropolitan Tokyo in 2014, Japan experienced its first domestic dengue outbreak since 1945. The objective of the present study was to quantitatively assess the future risk of dengue in Japan using climate change scenarios in a high-resolution geospatial environment by building on a solid theory as a baseline in consideration of future adaptation strategies.<br><br>METHODS: Using climate change scenarios of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6 (MIROC6), representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, we computed the daily average temperature and embedded this in the effective reproduction number of dengue, R(T), to calculate the extinction probability and interepidemic period across Japan.<br><br>RESULTS: In June and October, the R(T) with daily average temperature T, was <1 as in 2022; however, an elevation in temperature increased the number of days with R(T) >1 during these months under RCP8.5. The time period with a risk of dengue transmission gradually extended to late spring (April-May) and autumn (October-November). Under the RCP8.5 scenario in 2100, the possibility of no dengue-free months was revealed in part of southernmost Okinawa Prefecture, and the epidemic risk extended to the entire part of northernmost Hokkaido Prefecture.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Each locality in Japan must formulate action plans in response to the presented scenarios. Our geographic analysis can help local governments to develop adaptation policies that include mosquito breeding site elimination, distribution of adulticides and larvicides, and elevated situation awareness to prevent transmission via bites from Aedes vectors.}, }
@article {pmid35990711, year = {2022}, author = {Ji, JS}, title = {Heatwave sears China: Need for actionable climate change adaptation to protect public health.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {25}, number = {}, pages = {100568}, pmid = {35990711}, issn = {2666-6065}, }
@article {pmid35988604, year = {2022}, author = {Mahamat Nour, A and Huneau, F and Mahamat Ali, A and Mahamat Saleh, H and Ngo Boum-Nkot, S and Nlend, B and Djebebe-Ndjiguim, CL and Foto, E and Sanoussi, R and Araguas-Araguas, L and Vystavna, Y}, title = {Shallow Quaternary groundwater in the Lake Chad basin is resilient to climate change but requires sustainable management strategy: Results of isotopic investigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {851}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {158152}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158152}, pmid = {35988604}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Lakes ; Climate Change ; Tritium ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Groundwater/chemistry ; Isotopes/analysis ; Water ; }, abstract = {Within the Lake Chad Basin, the unconfined Quaternary aquifer offers permanent and easy access to water resources. This transboundary regional aquifer is shared by Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Cameroon and extends over ~500,000 km[2]. Climatic conditions and repeated droughts as well as the intensification of agriculture in the region have multiple negative impacts on the aquifer such as changes in groundwater level and its quality. Being a strategic water resource for the whole Chadian region, the groundwater potential of the Quaternary aquifer must be better characterized and understood to evaluate its resilience to climate change and anthropogenic impact. Stable isotopes and tritium of the water molecule were used to estimate water origin and residence time at the regional scale and to elucidate the interconnections between the different hydrological and hydrogeological components. Results show active recharge processes to the Quaternary aquifer as well as dynamic connections with surface waters (both river courses and wetlands) but also indicate less dynamic behavior of the Quaternary groundwater resource in some areas of the region. Based on the isotopic investigations, the Quaternary aquifer in the Chad basin was found to be resilient to climate change but its hydrogeological specificities (dependence to surface water from the upstream basins and transboundary nature of its structure) can make it prone to inadequate management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid35987040, year = {2022}, author = {Ruiz, MB and Servetto, N and Alurralde, G and Abele, D and Harms, L and Sahade, R and Held, C}, title = {Molecular responses of a key Antarctic species to sedimentation due to rapid climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {180}, number = {}, pages = {105720}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105720}, pmid = {35987040}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Urochordata ; }, abstract = {Rapid regional warming causing glacial retreat and melting of ice caps in Antarctica leads benthic filter-feeders to be exposed to periods of food shortage and high respiratory impairment as a consequence of seasonal sediment discharge in the West Antarctic Peninsula coastal areas. The molecular physiological response and its fine-tuning allow species to survive acute environmental stress and are thus a prerequisite to longer-term adaptation to changing environments. Under experimental conditions, we analyzed here the metabolic response to changes in suspended sediment concentrations, through transcriptome sequencing and enzymatic measurements in a highly abundant Antarctic ascidian. We found that the mechanisms underlying short-term response to sedimentation in Cnemidocarpa verrucosa sp. A involved apoptosis, immune defense, and general metabolic depression. These mechanisms may be understood as an adaptive protection against sedimentation caused by glacial retreat. This process can strongly contribute to the structuring of future benthic filter-feeder communities in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35986051, year = {2022}, author = {Guo, L and Di, L and Zhang, C and Lin, L and Chen, F and Molla, A}, title = {Evaluating contributions of urbanization and global climate change to urban land surface temperature change: a case study in Lagos, Nigeria.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {14168}, pmid = {35986051}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {80NSSC20K1262/NASA/NASA/United States ; }, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Hot Temperature ; Nigeria ; Temperature ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {This study develops a general method to evaluate the contributions of localized urbanization and global climate change to long-term urban land surface temperature (ULST) change. The method is based on the understanding that long-term annual ULST is controlled by three factors: (1) localized urbanization, (2) global climate change, and (3) interannual climate variation. Then the method removes the interannual climate fluctuations on long-term observed LST time series via linear regression and separates the contributions of urbanization and climate change to the impacts on long-term ULST via urban-rural comparison. The method is applied to Lagos, a fast-growing metropolis in the tropical West Africa, as an example for reference. Combined time-series daily daytime and nighttime MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data over the years of 2003-2021 are used as the representation of land surface temperature. To avoid the potentioal interannual data biase due to uneven availability of data in the rainy seasons over years, only MODIS LST data from dry seasons are used in the study. The results are summarized as follows for Lagos: (1) long-term annual ULST is confirmed to be controlled by the three factors; (2) the proposed method can separate the contribution of the three factors to the ULST; (2) both localized urbanization and global warming are verified to contribute to the ULST increase with positive trends; (3) daytime ULST increased the most in the afternoon time at a mean rate of 1.429 °C per decade, with 0.985 °C (10 year)[-1] contributed by urbanization and 0.444 °C (10 year)[-1] contributed by climate warming; (4) nighttime ULST in Lagos increased the most after midnight at a rate of 0.563 °C (10 year)[-1], with 0.56 °C (10 year)[-1] contributed by urbanization and 0.003 °C (10 year)[-1] contributed by climate warming; and (5) urbanization is generally responsible for around 60.97% of the urban warming in Lagos. Therefore, the increasing urbaniztion-induced urban heat island effect is the major cause for more heat-related health risks and climate extremes that many urban residents are suffering. The results of this study are of useful reference for both urbanization and climate change related issues in the geo-science field.}, }
@article {pmid35984820, year = {2022}, author = {Yan, B and Xu, Y and Liu, H and Huang, C}, title = {Response of future hydropower generation of cascade reservoirs to climate change in alpine regions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {8}, pages = {e0269389}, pmid = {35984820}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; European Alpine Region ; Floods ; *Rivers ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Climate warming accelerates the hydrological cycle, especially in high-latitude and high-altitude areas. The increase in temperature will increase the amount of snow and glacier melting and change the runoff, which will affect the operations of cascade reservoirs significantly. Therefore, taking the upper reaches of the Yellow River with an alpine climate as an example, we propose an improved SIMHYD-SNOW, which considers the snowmelt runoff process. The impacts of climate changes on the runoff process were revealed based on the SIMHYD-SNOW model using the precipitation and temperature data predicted by the SDSM model. A model for the maximum power generation of the cascade reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Yellow River was constructed to explore the impacts of climate changes on the inter-annual and intra-annual hydropower generation of the cascade reservoirs at different periods in the future. The results show that climate change has changed the spatial and temporal allocation of water resources in this area. The future runoff will decrease during the flood period (July to September) but increase significantly during the non-flood period. The inter-annual and intra-annual hydropower generation under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario is significantly lower than the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 climate change scenarios, and as the CO2 emission concentration increases, this gap increases significantly. This study can provide technical references for the precise formulation of water resources management under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35983960, year = {2022}, author = {Sheahan, M and Gould, CA and Neumann, JE and Kinney, PL and Hoffmann, S and Fant, C and Wang, X and Kolian, M}, title = {Examining the Relationship between Climate Change and Vibriosis in the United States: Projected Health and Economic Impacts for the 21st Century.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {130}, number = {8}, pages = {87007}, pmid = {35983960}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Incidence ; Seafood ; Temperature ; United States/epidemiology ; *Vibrio Infections/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This paper represents, to our knowledge, the first national-level (United States) estimate of the economic impacts of vibriosis cases as exacerbated by climate change. Vibriosis is an illness contracted through food- and waterborne exposures to various Vibrio species (e.g., nonV. cholerae O1 and O139 serotypes) found in estuarine and marine environments, including within aquatic life, such as shellfish and finfish.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to project climate-induced changes in vibriosis and associated economic impacts in the United States related to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs).<br><br>METHODS: For our analysis to identify climate links to vibriosis incidence, we constructed three logistic regression models by Vibrio species, using vibriosis data sourced from the Cholera and Other Vibrio Illness Surveillance system and historical SSTs. We relied on previous estimates of the cost-per-case of vibriosis to estimate future total annual medical costs, lost income from productivity loss, and mortality-related indirect costs throughout the United States. We separately reported results for V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus, V. alginolyticus, and "V. spp.," given the different associated health burden of each.<br><br>RESULTS: By 2090, increases in SST are estimated to result in a 51% increase in cases annually relative to the baseline era (centered on 1995) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, and a 108% increase under RCP8.5. The cost of these illnesses is projected to reach $5.2&#x2009;billion annually under RCP4.5, and $7.3&#x2009;billion annually under RCP8.5, relative to $2.2&#x2009;billion in the baseline (2018 U.S. dollars), equivalent to 140% and 234% increases respectively.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Vibriosis incidence is likely to increase in the United States under moderate and unmitigated climate change scenarios through increases in SST, resulting in a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality, and costing billions of dollars. These costs are mostly attributable to deaths, primarily from exposure to V. vulnificus. Evidence suggests that other factors, including sea surface salinity, may contribute to further increases in vibriosis cases in some regions of the United States and should also be investigated. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9999a.}, }
@article {pmid35982565, year = {2022}, author = {Tang, X and Xie, G and Deng, J and Shao, K and Hu, Y and He, J and Zhang, J and Gao, G}, title = {Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on lake environmental dynamics: A case study in Lake Bosten Catchment, NW China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {319}, number = {}, pages = {115764}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115764}, pmid = {35982565}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Anthropogenic Effects ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Lakes ; Water ; }, abstract = {Arid and semiarid regions account for ∼ 40% of the world's land area. Rivers and lakes in these regions provide sparse, but valuable, water resources for the fragile environments, and play a vital role in the development and sustainability of local societies. During the late 1980s, the climate of arid and semiarid northwest China dramatically changed from "warm-dry" to "warm-wet". Understanding how these environmental changes and anthropogenic activities affect water quantity and quality is critically important for protecting aquatic ecosystems and determining the best use of freshwater resources. Lake Bosten is the largest inland freshwater lake in NW China and has experienced inter-conversion between freshwater and brackish status. Herein, we explored the long-term water level and salinity trends in Lake Bosten from 1958 to 2019. During the past 62 years, the water level and salinity of Lake Bosten exhibited inverse "W-shaped" and "M-shaped" patterns, respectively. Partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) suggested that the decreasing water level and salinization during 1958-1986 were mainly caused by anthropogenic activities, while the variations in water level and salinity during 1987-2019 were mainly affected by climate change. The transformation of anthropogenic activities and climate change is beneficial for sustainable freshwater management in the Lake Bosten Catchment. Our findings highlight the benefit of monitoring aquatic environmental changes in arid and semi-arid regions over the long-term for the purpose of fostering a balance between socioeconomic development and ecological protection of the lake environment.}, }
@article {pmid35982555, year = {2022}, author = {Huang, SL and Lee, YC and Chiang, LY}, title = {Assessing the synergies and trade-offs of development projects in response to climate change in an urban region.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {319}, number = {}, pages = {115731}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115731}, pmid = {35982555}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Pilot Projects ; Policy ; Taiwan ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {A synthesis of the complex relationships, including synergies and trade-offs, between urban development projects and climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives can ensure that all these relationships are taken into consideration. We used a systems approach and applied an impact matrix and chain effect analysis methods to projects in the highly urbanized Taipei metropolitan region to identify the influences and effects between urban development projects and climate change objectives. Three types of urban plans and projects were analyzed: flood control, transportation, and urban planning. The magnitudes of the influences and effects between these projects and plans were derived through interviews with experts familiar with Taipei's urban development. This pilot study found no synergy in the response to climate change mitigation and adaptation for the urban development projects analyzed. The current standalone policies and plans related to urbanization in Taipei have resulted in trade-offs for flood control and public transit projects because they contribute positively toward one climate objective but negatively impact another. A high-level policymaking mechanism that ensures coordination and collaboration between different sectors is needed to supervise sectoral policies. Prior to the approval and implementation of a plan, policymakers should request the assessment of synergies and trade-offs between plans and projects to ensure a synergistic effect to climate change issues. This study confirms that the strategy from individual sector in a metropolitan region will result in trade-off between climate change issues is a global problem. This paper also strengthens the concept that the assessment of synergy/trade-offs between policy and plans should be conducted using systemic approach.}, }
@article {pmid35981587, year = {2022}, author = {Lin, Q and Steger, S and Pittore, M and Zhang, J and Wang, L and Jiang, T and Wang, Y}, title = {Evaluation of potential changes in landslide susceptibility and landslide occurrence frequency in China under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {850}, number = {}, pages = {158049}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158049}, pmid = {35981587}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Landslides ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate change can alter the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall across the globe, leading to changes in hazards posed by rainfall-induced landslides. In recent decades, China suffered great human and economic losses due to rainfall-induced landslides. However, how the landslide hazard situation will evolve in the future is still unclear, also because of sparse comprehensive evaluations of potential changes in landslide susceptibility and landslide occurrence frequency under climate change. This study builds upon observed and modelled rainfall data from 24 bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs), a statistical landslide susceptibility model, and empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation, to evaluate changes in landslide susceptibility and landslide occurrence frequency at national-scale. Based on four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, changes in the rainfall regime are projected and used to evaluate subsequent alterations in landslide susceptibility and in the frequency of rainfall events exceeding empirical rainfall thresholds. In general, the results indicate that the extend of landslide susceptible terrain and the frequency of landslide-triggering rainfall will increase under climate change. Nevertheless, a closer inspection provides a spatially heterogeneous picture on how these landslide occurrence indicators may evolve across China. Until the late 21st century (2080-2099) and depending on the SSP scenarios, the mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by 13.4 % to 28.6 %, inducing an 1.3 % to 2.7 % increase in the modelled areal extent of moderately to very highly susceptible terrain. Different SSP scenarios were associated with an increase in the frequency of landslide-triggering rainfall events by 10.3 % to 19.8 % with respect to historical baseline. Spatially, the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains in Northwestern Basins are projected to experience the largest increase in landslide susceptibility and frequency of landslide-triggering rainfall, especially under the high emission scenarios. Adaptation and mitigation methods should be prioritized for these future landslide hotspots. This work provides a better understanding of potential impacts of climate change on landslide hazard across China and represents a first step towards national-scale quantitative landslide exposure and risk assessment under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35981278, year = {2022}, author = {Errett, NA and Dolan, K and Hartwell, C and Vickery, J and Hess, JJ}, title = {Adapting by Their Bootstraps: State and Territorial Public Health Agencies Struggle to Meet the Mounting Challenge of Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {112}, number = {10}, pages = {1379-1381}, pmid = {35981278}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid35978588, year = {2022}, author = {Ab Kader, NI and Yusof, UK and Khalid, MNA and Nik Husain, NR}, title = {Recent Techniques in Determining the Effects of Climate Change on Depressive Patients: A Systematic Review.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2022}, number = {}, pages = {1803401}, pmid = {35978588}, issn = {1687-9813}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is amongst the most serious issues nowadays. Climate change has become a concern for the scientific community as it could affect human health. Researchers have found that climate change potentially impacts human mental health, especially among depressive patients. However, the relationship is still unclear and needs further investigation. The purpose of this systematic review is to systematically evaluate the evidence of the association between climate change effects on depressive patients, investigate the effects of environmental exposure related to climate change on mental health outcomes for depressive patients, analyze the current technique used to determine the relationship, and provide the guidance for future research. Articles were identified by searching specified keywords in six electronic databases (Google Scholar, PubMed, Scopus, Springer, ScienceDirect, and IEEE Digital Library) from 2012 until 2021. Initially, 1823 articles were assessed based on inclusion criteria. After being analyzed, only 15 studies fit the eligibility criteria. The result from included studies showed that there appears to be strong evidence of the association of environmental exposure related to climate change in depressive patients. Temperature and air pollution are consistently associated with increased hospital admission of depressive patients; age and gender became the most frequently considered vulnerability factors. However, the current evidence is limited, and the output finding between each study is still varied and does not achieve a reasonable and mature conclusion regarding the relationship between the variables. Therefore, more evidence is needed in this domain study. Some variables might have complex patterns, and hard to identify the relationship. Thus, technique used to analyze the relationship should be strengthened to identify the relevant relationship.}, }
@article {pmid35978170, year = {2022}, author = {Stoye, E}, title = {Daily briefing: New US law pledges billions to fight climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-02244-3}, pmid = {35978170}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid35978063, year = {2022}, author = {Ghorbani, Z and Khosravi, A and Maghsoudi, Y and Mojtahedi, FF and Javadnia, E and Nazari, A}, title = {Use of InSAR data for measuring land subsidence induced by groundwater withdrawal and climate change in Ardabil Plain, Iran.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {13998}, pmid = {35978063}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Ardabil plain, with an approximate area of 1097.2 km[2] in northwestern Iran, has experienced land subsidence due to intensive groundwater withdrawal and long seasons of drought in recent years. Different techniques have been used to investigate and evaluate subsidence in this region including: Global Positioning Systems (GPS), Levelling, and Geotechnical methods. These methods are typically expensive, time-consuming, and identify only a small fraction of the areas prone to subsidence. This study employs an Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique to measure the long-term subsidence of the plain. An open-source SAR interferometry time series analysis package, LiCSBAS, that integrates with the automated Sentinel-1 InSAR processor (COMET-LiCSAR) is used to analyze Sentinel-1 satellite images from October 2014 to January 2021. Processing of Sentinel-1 images shows that the Ardabil plain has been facing rapid subsidence due to groundwater pumping and reduced rainfall, especially between May 2018 to January 2019. The maximum subsidence rate was 45 mm/yr, measured at the southeastern part of the plain. While providing significant advantages (less processing time and disk space) over other InSAR processing packages, implementation of the LiCSBAS processing package and its accuracy for land subsidence measurements at different scales needs further evaluation. This study provides a procedure for evaluating its efficiency and accuracy for land subsidence measurements by comparing its measurements with the results of the GMTSAR and geotechnical numerical modeling. The results of geotechnical numerical modeling showed land subsidence with an average annual rate of 38 mm between 2006 and 2020, which was close to measurements using the InSAR technique. Comparison of the subsidence measurements of the Ardabil plain using the LiCSBAS package with results obtained from other techniques shows that LiCSBAS is able to accurately detect land deformation at large scales (~ km). However, they may not be optimized for more local deformations such as infrastructure monitoring.}, }
@article {pmid35976855, year = {2022}, author = {Koehn, LE and Nelson, LK and Samhouri, JF and Norman, KC and Jacox, MG and Cullen, AC and Fiechter, J and Pozo Buil, M and Levin, PS}, title = {Social-ecological vulnerability of fishing communities to climate change: A U.S. West Coast case study.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {8}, pages = {e0272120}, pmid = {35976855}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Humans ; Hunting ; Salmon ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already impacting coastal communities, and ongoing and future shifts in fisheries species productivity from climate change have implications for the livelihoods and cultures of coastal communities. Harvested marine species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem support U.S. West Coast communities economically, socially, and culturally. Ecological vulnerability assessments exist for individual species in the California Current but ecological and human vulnerability are linked and vulnerability is expected to vary by community. Here, we present automatable, reproducible methods for assessing the vulnerability of U.S. West Coast fishing dependent communities to climate change within a social-ecological vulnerability framework. We first assessed the ecological risk of marine resources, on which fishing communities rely, to 50 years of climate change projections. We then combined this with the adaptive capacity of fishing communities, based on social indicators, to assess the potential ability of communities to cope with future changes. Specific communities (particularly in Washington state) were determined to be at risk to climate change mainly due to economic reliance on at risk marine fisheries species, like salmon, hake, or sea urchins. But, due to higher social adaptive capacity, these communities were often not found to be the most vulnerable overall. Conversely, certain communities that were not the most at risk, ecologically and economically, ranked in the category of highly vulnerable communities due to low adaptive capacity based on social indicators (particularly in Southern California). Certain communities were both ecologically at risk due to catch composition and socially vulnerable (low adaptive capacity) leading to the highest tier of vulnerability. The integration of climatic, ecological, economic, and societal data reveals that factors underlying vulnerability are variable across fishing communities on the U.S West Coast, and suggests the need to develop a variety of well-aligned strategies to adapt to the ecological impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35976593, year = {2023}, author = {Saad-Hussein, A and Helmy, MA and Ellaithy, LS and Wheida, A and El Nazer, M and Alfaro, SC and Siour, G and Borbon, A and Abdel Wahab, MM and Mostafa, AN}, title = {Temporal trend of diarrhea morbidity rate with climate change: Egypt as a case study.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {5059-5075}, pmid = {35976593}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {37485VE//Academy of Scientific Research and Technology (EG)/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Egypt/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Diarrhea/epidemiology ; Droughts ; Morbidity ; }, abstract = {Many studies have detected a relationship between diarrhea morbidity rates with the changes in precipitation, temperature, floods, droughts, water shortage, etc. But, most of the authors were cautious in their studies, because of the lack of empirical climate-health data and there were large uncertainties in the future projections. The study aimed to refine the link between the morbidity rates of diarrhea in some Egyptian governorates representative of the three Egyptian geographical divisions with the meteorological changes that occurred in the 2006-2016 period for which the medical data are available, as a case study. Medical raw data was collected from the Information Centre Department of the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population. The meteorological data of temperature and precipitation extremes were defined as data outside the 10th-90th percentile range of values of the period of study, and their analysis was done using a methodology similar to the one recommended by the WMO and integrated in the CLIMDEX software. Relationships between the morbidity rates of diarrhea in seven Egyptian governorates and the meteorological changes that occurred in the period 2006 to 2016 were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis to identify the most effective meteorological factor that affects the trend of morbidity rate of diarrhea in each governorate. Statistical analysis revealed that some meteorological parameters can be used as predictors for morbidity rates of diarrhea in Cairo, Alexandria, and Gharbia, but not in Aswan, Behaira, and Dakahlia where the temporal evolution cannot be related with meteorology. In Red Sea, there was no temporal trend and no significant relationships between the diarrhea morbidity rate and meteorological parameters. The predictor meteorological parameters for morbidity rates of diarrhea were found to be depending on the geographic locations and infrastructures in these governorates. It was concluded that the meteorological data that can be used as predictors for the morbidity rate of diarrhea is depending on the geographical location and infrastructures of the target location. The socioeconomic levels as well as the infrastructures in the governorate must be considered confounders in future studies.}, }
@article {pmid35976375, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {ERRATUM: A model-based evaluation of farmers' income variability under climate change (case study: autumn crops in Iran).}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {84}, number = {}, pages = {e261997er}, doi = {10.1590/1519-6984.261997er}, pmid = {35976375}, issn = {1678-4375}, abstract = {[This corrects the article doi: 10.1590/1519-6984.261997].}, }
@article {pmid35975614, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {Correction to: Dermatopathology Laboratory Green Initiatives: Illuminating Environmental Stewardship Opportunities in an Era of Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of clinical pathology}, volume = {158}, number = {5}, pages = {666}, doi = {10.1093/ajcp/aqac112}, pmid = {35975614}, issn = {1943-7722}, }
@article {pmid35974983, year = {2022}, author = {Covert, HH and Soares, LF and Wahid, FA and Allen, T and Guido, Z and Johnson, D and Mahon, R and Méndez-Lázaro, P and Sherman, M and St Ville, S and Trotman, A and Lichtveld, MY}, title = {Priorities for Bolstering Public Health Resilience in the Context of Climate Change in Dominica and Puerto Rico.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {88}, number = {1}, pages = {63}, pmid = {35974983}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Dominica ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Puerto Rico ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Caribbean small island developing states are highly exposed to climate change impacts. Incorporating weather and climate information into public health decisions can promote resilience to climate change's adverse health effects, but regionally it is not common practice. We implemented a project to enhance dialogue between climate and public health specialists in Puerto Rico and Dominica. First, we conducted environmental scans of public health vulnerability in the context of weather and climate for both islands. Then, we convened stakeholders to discuss the scan results and identify priorities for climate and health. A shared priority was increasing climate and health knowledge; thus, we developed several educational initiatives. In this viewpoint, we discuss our process for conducting environmental scans, building capacity and partnerships, and translating knowledge-to-action around climate and health.}, }
@article {pmid35974023, year = {2022}, author = {Chen, Y and Jiang, Z and Fan, P and Ericson, PGP and Song, G and Luo, X and Lei, F and Qu, Y}, title = {The combination of genomic offset and niche modelling provides insights into climate change-driven vulnerability.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {4821}, pmid = {35974023}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/genetics ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Genomics ; }, abstract = {Global warming is increasingly exacerbating biodiversity loss. Populations locally adapted to spatially heterogeneous environments may respond differentially to climate change, but this intraspecific variation has only recently been considered when modelling vulnerability under climate change. Here, we incorporate intraspecific variation in genomic offset and ecological niche modelling to estimate climate change-driven vulnerability in two bird species in the Sino-Himalayan Mountains. We found that the cold-tolerant populations show higher genomic offset but risk less challenge for niche suitability decline under future climate than the warm-tolerant populations. Based on a genome-niche index estimated by combining genomic offset and niche suitability change, we identified the populations with the least genome-niche interruption as potential donors for evolutionary rescue, i.e., the populations tolerant to climate change. We evaluated potential rescue routes via a landscape genetic analysis. Overall, we demonstrate that the integration of genomic offset, niche suitability modelling, and landscape connectivity can improve climate change-driven vulnerability assessments and facilitate effective conservation management.}, }
@article {pmid35970886, year = {2022}, author = {O'Leary, K}, title = {Climate change cranks up infectious disease impact.}, journal = {Nature medicine}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41591-022-00085-1}, pmid = {35970886}, issn = {1546-170X}, }
@article {pmid35970537, year = {2022}, author = {Ward, PW}, title = {NHS to tackle climate change: insulating buildings would be a good start.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {378}, number = {}, pages = {o2014}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o2014}, pmid = {35970537}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *State Medicine ; }, }
@article {pmid35970468, year = {2022}, author = {Kapuka, A and Dobor, L and Hlásny, T}, title = {Climate change threatens the distribution of major woody species and ecosystem services provision in southern Africa.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {850}, number = {}, pages = {158006}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158006}, pmid = {35970468}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Africa, Southern ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {In southern Africa, woody vegetation provides essential ecological, regulation, and cultural ecosystem services (ES), yet many species and ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change and land-use transformations. We investigated the effect of climate change on the distribution of eight species in 18 countries in southern Africa, covering 36% of the continent. We proposed a loser/winner ranking of the species based on the changes in land climatic suitability within their historical distribution and future gains and losses of suitable areas. We interpreted these findings in terms of changes in key ES (timber, food, and energy) provision and identified hotspots of ES provision decline. We used species presence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, climatic data from the AfriClim dataset, and the MaxEnt algorithm to project the changes in species-specific land climatic suitability. Among the eight investigated species, the baseline suitability range of Mopane (Colophosperm mopane) was least affected by climate change. At the same time, the area of its future distribution was projected to double, rendering it a regional winner. Another two species, manketti (Schinziophyton rautanenii) and leadwood (Combretum imberbe) showed high future gains too; however, the impact on their baseline suitability range differed between the climatic scenarios. The baseline range of African rosewood (Guibourtia coleosperma) declined entirely, and the future gains were negligible, rendering the species a regional loser. The effect of climate change was particularly severe on timber-producing species (four out of eight species), while species providing food (four species) and energy (four species) were affected less. Our projections portrayed distinct hotspot and coldspot areas, where climatic suitability for multiple species was concurrently projected to decline or persist. This assessment can inform spatially targeted adaptation and conservation actions and strategies, which are currently lacking in many African regions.}, }
@article {pmid35968032, year = {2022}, author = {Mora, C and McKenzie, T and Gaw, IM and Dean, JM and von Hammerstein, H and Knudson, TA and Setter, RO and Smith, CZ and Webster, KM and Patz, JA and Franklin, EC}, title = {Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {869-875}, pmid = {35968032}, issn = {1758-678X}, abstract = {It is relatively well accepted that climate change can affect human pathogenic diseases; however, the full extent of this risk remains poorly quantified. Here we carried out a systematic search for empirical examples about the impacts of ten climatic hazards sensitive to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on each known human pathogenic disease. We found that 58% (that is, 218 out of 375) of infectious diseases confronted by humanity worldwide have been at some point aggravated by climatic hazards; 16% were at times diminished. Empirical cases revealed 1,006 unique pathways in which climatic hazards, via different transmission types, led to pathogenic diseases. The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG emissions.}, }
@article {pmid35967931, year = {2022}, author = {Joshi, J and Magal, A and Limaye, VS and Madan, P and Jaiswal, A and Mavalankar, D and Knowlton, K}, title = {Climate change and 2030 cooling demand in Ahmedabad, India: opportunities for expansion of renewable energy and cool roofs.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {27}, number = {7}, pages = {44}, pmid = {35967931}, issn = {1573-1596}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Most of India's current electricity demand is met by combustion of fossil fuels, particularly coal. But the country has embarked on a major expansion of renewable energy and aims for half of its electricity needs to be met by renewable sources by 2030. As climate change-driven temperature increases continue to threaten India's population and drive increased demand for air conditioning, there is a need to estimate the local benefits of policies that increase renewable energy capacity and reduce cooling demand in buildings. We investigate the impacts of climate change-driven temperature increases, along with population and economic growth, on demand for electricity to cool buildings in the Indian city of Ahmedabad between 2018 and 2030. We estimate the share of energy demand met by coal-fired power plants versus renewable energy in 2030, and the cooling energy demand effects of expanded cool roof adaptation in the city. We find renewable energy capacity could increase from meeting 9% of cooling energy demand in 2018 to 45% in 2030. Our modeling indicates a near doubling in total electricity supply and a nearly threefold growth in cooling demand by 2030. Expansion of cool roofs to 20% of total roof area (associated with a 0.21 TWh reduction in cooling demand between 2018 and 2030) could more than offset the city's climate change-driven 2030 increase in cooling demand (0.17 TWh/year). This study establishes a framework for linking climate, land cover, and energy models to help policymakers better prepare for growing cooling energy demand under a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid35967891, year = {2022}, author = {Fernandez, E and Do, H and Luedeling, E and Luu, TTG and Whitney, C}, title = {Prioritizing farm management interventions to improve climate change adaptation and mitigation outcomes-a case study for banana plantations.}, journal = {Agronomy for sustainable development}, volume = {42}, number = {4}, pages = {76}, pmid = {35967891}, issn = {1774-0746}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Intervening into agricultural systems necessarily includes risks, uncertainties, and ultimately unknown outcomes. Decision analysis embraces uncertainty through an interdisciplinary approach that involves relevant stakeholders in evaluating complex decisions. We applied decision analysis approaches to prioritize 21 farm management interventions, which could be considered in certification schemes for banana production. We estimated their contribution to climate change adaptation and mitigation as well as ecological outcomes. We used a general model that estimated the impacts of each intervention on adaptation (benefits minus costs), mitigation (global warming potential), ecological parameters (e.g., biodiversity and water and soil quality), and farming aspects (e.g., yield, implementation costs and production risks). We used expert and documented knowledge and presented uncertainties in the form of 90% confidence intervals to feed the model and forecast the changes in system outcomes caused by each intervention compared to a baseline scenario without the measure. By iterating the model function 10,000 times, we obtained probability distributions for each of the outcomes and farm management interventions. Our results suggest that interventions associated with nutrient management (e.g., composting and nutrient management plan) positively affect climate change adaptation, mitigation, and ecological aspects. Measures with no direct yield benefits (e.g., plastic reduction) correlate negatively with adaptation but have positive impacts on ecology. Creating buffer zones and converting low-productivity farmland (incl. unused land) also have positive ecological and adaptation outcomes. Decision analysis can help in prioritizing farm management interventions, which may vary considerably in their relationship with the expected outcomes. Additional work may be required to elaborate a comprehensive assessment of the underlying aspects modulating the impacts of a given measure on the evaluated outcome. Our analysis provides insights on the most promising interventions for banana plantations and may help practitioners and researchers in focusing further studies.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-022-00809-0.}, }
@article {pmid35966375, year = {2022}, author = {Lambert, T}, title = {Byzantine Empire Economic Growth: Did Past Climate Change Play a Role?.}, journal = {Human ecology: an interdisciplinary journal}, volume = {50}, number = {5}, pages = {803-816}, pmid = {35966375}, issn = {0300-7839}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Different chronicles of the Byzantine Empire's history have noted various economic data gleaned from historical documents and accounts of the Empire's existence. I provide conjectures on approximate real GDP per capita for the Empire over its existence from AD 300 to 1453. I use these to investigate whether climate forcing variables are associated with real GDP per capita fluctuations. Some hypotheses on factors that would have affected Byzantine economic performance are tested using climate/environmental factors in time series regression. The results support and confirm some findings on how the Byzantine economy may have been affected by periods of regional climate change.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10745-022-00343-3.}, }
@article {pmid35966219, year = {2022}, author = {Ghosh, S and Pulford, S and Bloom, AJ}, title = {Remote learning slightly decreased student performance in an introductory undergraduate course on climate change.}, journal = {Communications earth &amp; environment}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {177}, pmid = {35966219}, issn = {2662-4435}, abstract = {Public understanding about complex issues such as climate change relies heavily on online resources. Yet the role that online instruction should assume in post-secondary science education remains contentious despite its near ubiquity during the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective here was to compare the performance of 1790 undergraduates taking either an online or face-to-face version of an introductory course on climate change. Both versions were taught by a single instructor, thus, minimizing instructor bias. Women, seniors, English language learners, and humanities majors disproportionately chose to enroll in the online version because of its ease of scheduling and accessibility. After correcting for performance-gaps among different demographic groups, the COVID-19 pandemic had no significant effect on online student performance and students in the online version scored 2% lower (on a scale of 0-100) than those in the face-to-face version, a penalty that may be a reasonable tradeoff for the ease of scheduling and accessibility that these students desire.}, }
@article {pmid36569520, year = {2021}, author = {Loureiro, ML and Alló, M}, title = {How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the climate change debate on Twitter?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; policy}, volume = {124}, number = {}, pages = {451-460}, pmid = {36569520}, issn = {1462-9011}, abstract = {Climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic share many similarities. However, in the past months, concerns have increased about the fact the health emergency has put on hold during the pandemic many climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We focus our attention on understanding the role of the recent health emergency on the transmission of information related to climate change, jointly with other socio-economic variables, social norms, and cultural dimensions. In doing so, we create a unique dataset containing the number of tweets written with specific climate related keywords per country worldwide, as well as country specific socio-economic characteristics, relevant social norms, and cultural variables. We find that socio-economic variables, such as income, education, and other risk-related variables matter in the transmission of information about climate change and Twitter activity. We also find that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly decreased the overall number of messages written about climate change, postponing the climate debate worldwide; but particularly in some vulnerable countries. This shows that in spite of the existing climate emergency, the current pandemic has had a detrimental effect over the short-term planning of climate policies in countries where climate action is urgent.}, }
@article {pmid36568567, year = {2021}, author = {Haase, D}, title = {COVID-19 pandemic observations as a trigger to reflect on urban forestry in European cities under climate change: Introducing nature-society-based solutions.}, journal = {Urban forestry &amp; urban greening}, volume = {64}, number = {}, pages = {127304}, pmid = {36568567}, issn = {1618-8667}, abstract = {COVID-19 pandemic observations triggered a reflection by the author on urban forests in European cities under climate change as nature-society-based solutions. This commentary introduces a complementary triad of approaches that are all known but might lead to a novel view of urban nature, including forests, regarding changes in pandemic diseases and/or related to urbanization and climate change: Hybridity, succession, and flexibility: First, allowing for green spaces used by humans and nature but also those that are exclusively for ecosystems to provide space for undisturbed development and thus better control pests and diseases. Second, allow for succession at urban open spaces to let nature experiment on solutions for a drier and hotter climate that urban society can implement in urban forestry. And third, allow planning to set targets in efficiency assessment and monitoring that are matching time periods which natural ecosystems need to adapt to climate change acknowledging nature as a real 'partner' in nature-society-based solutions in one-health cities.}, }
@article {pmid36569371, year = {2021}, author = {Chen, CF and Nelson, H and Xu, X and Bonilla, G and Jones, N}, title = {Beyond technology adoption: Examining home energy management systems, energy burdens and climate change perceptions during COVID-19 pandemic.}, journal = {Renewable &amp; sustainable energy reviews}, volume = {145}, number = {}, pages = {111066}, pmid = {36569371}, issn = {1879-0690}, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly changed our lives. While the global impacts of the pandemic are shocking, the implications for energy burdens, climate policy, and energy efficiency are salient. This study examines income differences in the acceptance of and willingness to pay for home energy management systems during the COVID-19 pandemic among 632 residents in New York. Additionally, this study examines energy profiles, energy burdens, climate change issues, risk perceptions, and social-psychological factors. Compared with low-income households, our findings suggest that high-income households use more energy, have higher utility bills during quarantine mandates, perceive a higher risk of COVID-19 infection, and perceive climate change issues to be better than before. Low-income households, however, experience the highest energy burdens. Regarding HEMS acceptance, high-income households are more willing to adopt energy and well-being-promoting features of HEMS and more willing to pay a higher monthly fee for all the features than other income groups. Overall, participants were more willing to pay a higher price for the energy features than the well-being-promoting features. Low-income households indicate lower social norms, personal norms, and perceived behavioral control over adopting HEMS; they also perceive HEMS to be more difficult to use and less useful. Higher-income households express a higher trust in utilities than low-income households. Surprisingly, cost concerns, technology anxiety, and cybersecurity concerns relating to HEMS do not differ across income groups. This paper addresses the interactions among technology attributes and social-psychological and demographic factors, and provides policy implications and insights for future research.}, }
@article {pmid36568359, year = {2021}, author = {Kallbekken, S and Sælen, H}, title = {Public support for air travel restrictions to address COVID-19 or climate change.}, journal = {Transportation research. Part D, Transport and environment}, volume = {93}, number = {}, pages = {102767}, pmid = {36568359}, issn = {1361-9209}, abstract = {An improved understanding of public support is essential to design effective and feasible climate policies for aviation. Our motivation is the contrast between high support for air travel restrictions responding to the COVID-19 pandemic and low support for restrictions to combat climate change. Can the same factors explain individuals' support for restrictive measures across two different problems? Using a survey, we find that largely the same factors explain support. Support increases with expected effectiveness, perceived threat and imminence of the problem, shorter expected duration of the measure, knowledge, and trust, while support decreases with expected negative consequences for self and the poor. When controlling for all perceptions, there is no significant residual difference in support depending on whether the measures address climate change or COVID-19. The level of support differs because COVID-19 is perceived as a more imminent threat, and because measures are expected to be shorter-lasting and more effective.}, }
@article {pmid36101577, year = {2021}, author = {Tajudeen, YA and Oladunjoye, IO and Adebayo, AO and Adebisi, YA}, title = {The need to adopt planetary health approach in understanding the potential influence of climate change and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases outbreaks.}, journal = {Public health in practice (Oxford, England)}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {100095}, pmid = {36101577}, issn = {2666-5352}, }
@article {pmid36619247, year = {2020}, author = {Xu, SY and Weng, JK}, title = {Climate change shapes the future evolution of plant metabolism.}, journal = {Advanced genetics (Hoboken, N.J.)}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {e10022}, pmid = {36619247}, issn = {2641-6573}, abstract = {Planet Earth has experienced many dramatic atmospheric and climatic changes throughout its 4.5-billion-year history that have profoundly impacted the evolution of life as we know it. Photosynthetic organisms, and specifically plants, have played a paramount role in shaping the Earth's atmosphere through oxygen production and carbon sequestration. In turn, the diversity of plants has been shaped by historical atmospheric and climatic changes: plants rose to this challenge by evolving new developmental and metabolic traits. These adaptive traits help plants to thrive in diverse growth conditions, while benefiting humanity through the production of food, raw materials, and medicines. However, the current rapid rate of climate change caused by human activities presents unprecedented new challenges to the future of plants. Here, we discuss the potential effects of modern climate change on plants, with specific attention to plant specialized metabolism. We explore potential avenues of future scientific investigations, powered by cutting-edge methods such as synthetic biology and genome engineering, to better understand and mitigate the consequences of rapid climate change on plant fitness and plant usage by humans.}, }
@article {pmid36337740, year = {2019}, author = {Carignan, A and Valiquette, L and Laupland, KB}, title = {Impact of climate change on emerging infectious diseases: Implications for Canada.}, journal = {Journal of the Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Disease Canada = Journal officiel de l'Association pour la microbiologie medicale et l'infectiologie Canada}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {55-59}, pmid = {36337740}, issn = {2371-0888}, }
@article {pmid36420048, year = {2018}, author = {Momodu, AS and Kivuti-Bitok, L}, title = {System dynamic modelling of electricity planning and climate change in West Africa.}, journal = {AAS open research}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {15}, pmid = {36420048}, issn = {2515-9321}, abstract = {Background: It is imperative to develop an efficient strategic approach to managing the push-pull factor in economic development, particularly as relates to climate change and energy interactions in the West African Region. This article demonstrates the use of System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) for that purpose; to manage the development of energy growth with reduced impact in regards to climate change. The complexities of energy planning in relation to climate change necessitates the need for the tool to examine low carbon economy mixed with traditional approaches of planning. Methods: Vensim DSS version 6.2 was used to develop the model. WAPP member country level data elicited from WAPP and ECOWAS Regional Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERERA) serves as the set of basic data used to develop and run the main model. These were complemented with other data elicited from various journal articles and internet sources. These include population and its average growth rate, GDP, per capita income, average per capita electricity demand, electricity generated, average electricity tariff, generation technology type, amongst others. Results: SDM demonstrates the capability to understand the theoretical frame for trade-offs between economic development and climate change, by handling the nonlinear relationship between generation adequacy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction for better targeted strategic regional intervention on climate change. Conclusion: The primary goal of this paper was to demonstrate the use of SDM to aid in resource planning in an inexpensive way to examine low carbon pathway. With the SDM, the goal of low carbon pathway in the energy system was achieved without the cost of controlled trials.}, }
@article {pmid36204013, year = {2017}, author = {Weaver, CP and Moss, RH and Ebi, KL and Gleick, PH and Stern, PC and Tebaldi, C and Wilson, RS and Arvai, JL}, title = {Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {1-8}, pmid = {36204013}, issn = {1748-9326}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. We suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.}, }
@article {pmid36203498, year = {2015}, author = {Johnson, T and Butcher, J and Deb, D and Faizullabhoy, M and Hummel, P and Kittle, J and McGinnis, S and Mearns, LO and Nover, D and Parker, A and Sarkar, S and Srinivasan, R and Tuppad, P and Warren, M and Weaver, C and Witt, J}, title = {MODELING STREAMFLOW AND WATER QUALITY SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN 20 U.S. WATERSHEDS.}, journal = {Journal of the American Water Resources Association}, volume = {51}, number = {5}, pages = {1321-1341}, pmid = {36203498}, issn = {1093-474X}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid-21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid-21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid-21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30-40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.}, }
@article {pmid35965299, year = {2023}, author = {Shi, X and Shi, M and Zhang, N and Wu, M and Ding, H and Li, Y and Chen, F}, title = {Effects of climate change and human activities on gross primary productivity in the Heihe River Basin, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {4230-4244}, pmid = {35965299}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; *Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Rivers ; China ; Human Activities ; }, abstract = {As the primary source of carbon dioxide fixation, vegetation is critical to the carbon sink process. In this paper, the Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and the Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) were simulated using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), respectively, and then the Potential Gross Primary Productivity (PGPP) and the GPP affected by human activities (AGPP) were simulated by combining Potential Net Primary Productivity (PNPP), and then the impact of climate change and human activities on GPP was assessed in the Heihe River Basin (HRB). The results showed that the GPP of grassland and Bare or Sparse Vegetation (BSV) exhibited a fluctuation rise, with increases of 0.709 gCm[-2] a[-1] and 0.115 gCm[-2] a[-1], respectively, whereas the GPP of cropland showed a fluctuation reduction, with a decline rate of -0.465 gCm[-2] a[-1]. Climate change and human activity are both positive for vegetation growth, and human activity being the primary factor influencing GPP change. Human-dominated vegetation restoration accounted for 56.1% of the overall restoration area, with grassland GPP being the most visible response to human activities. The GPP changes in crop and grassland had a positive correlation with precipitation but a negative correlation with temperature among climate change factors, whereas the GPP changes in BSV had a negative correlation with both precipitation and temperature. Quantitative analyses of climate change and human activities' dynamic contributions to vegetation can give scientific and theoretical insight for dealing with global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35964758, year = {2022}, author = {Rewicz, A and Myśliwy, M and Rewicz, T and Adamowski, W and Kolanowska, M}, title = {Contradictory effect of climate change on American and European populations of Impatiens capensis Meerb. - is this herb a global threat?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {850}, number = {}, pages = {157959}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157959}, pmid = {35964758}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Balsams ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Impatiens ; }, abstract = {AIMS: The present study is the first-ever attempt to generate information on the potential present and future distribution of Impatiens capensis (orange balsam) under various climate change scenarios. Moreover, the differences in bioclimatic preferences of native and non-native populations were evaluated.<br><br>LOCATION: Global.<br><br>TAXON: Angiosperms.<br><br>METHODS: A database of I. capensis localities was compiled based on the public database - the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), herbarium specimens, and a field survey in Poland. The initial dataset was verified, and each record was assigned to one of two groups - native (3664 records from North America) or non-native (750 records from Europe and the western part of North America). The analyses involved bioclimatic variables in 2.5 arc-minutes of interpolated climate surface downloaded from WorldClim v. 2.1. MaxEnt version 3.3.2 was used to conduct the ecological niche modeling based on presence-only observations of I. capensis. Forecasts of the future distribution of the climatic niches of the studied species in 2080-2100 were made based on climate projections developed by the CNRM/CERFACS modeling and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC-6).<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Distribution models created for "present time" showed slightly broader potential geographical ranges of both native and invasive populations of orange balsam. On the other hand, some areas (e.g. NW Poland, SW Finland), settled by the species, are far outside the modeled climate niche, which indicates a much greater adaptation potential of I. capensis. In addition, the models have shown that climate change will shift the native range of orange balsam to the north and the range of its European populations to the northwest. Moreover, while the coverage of niches suitable for I. capensis in America will extend due to climate change, the European populations will face 31-95 % habitat loss.}, }
@article {pmid35963134, year = {2022}, author = {Castro-Olivares, A and Des, M and Olabarria, C and deCastro, M and Vázquez, E and Sousa, MC and Gómez-Gesteira, M}, title = {Does global warming threaten small-scale bivalve fisheries in NW Spain?.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {180}, number = {}, pages = {105707}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105707}, pmid = {35963134}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; *Fisheries ; Global Warming ; Shellfish ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Shellfisheries of the intertidal and shallow subtidal infaunal bivalves Ruditapes decussatus, Ruditapes philippinarum, Venerupis corrugata and Cerastoderma edule are of great socio-economic importance (in terms of landings) in Europe, specifically in the Galician Rías Baixas (NW Spain). However, ocean warming may threaten these fisheries by modifying the geographic distribution of the species and thus affecting productive areas. The present study analysed the impact of rising ocean temperature on the geographical distribution of the thermal comfort areas of these bivalves throughout the 21st century. The Delft3D model was used to downscale climate data from CORDEX and CMIP5 and was run for July and August in three future periods (2025-2049, 2050-2074 and 2075-2099) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The areas with optimal temperature conditions for shellfish harvesting located in the middle and outer parts of the rias may increase in the near future for R. decussatus, V. corrugata and C. edule and decrease in the far future for R. philippinarum. Moreover, shellfish beds located in the shallower areas of the inner parts of the Rías Baixas could be affected by increased water temperature, reducing the productive areas of the four species by the end of the century. The projected changes in thermal condition will probably lead to changes in shellfish harvesting modality (on foot or aboard vessels) with further socio-economic consequences.}, }
@article {pmid35962817, year = {2022}, author = {Schweizer, V and Colloff, MJ and Pittock, J}, title = {The Dammed and the Saved: a Conservation Triage Framework for Wetlands under Climate Change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {70}, number = {4}, pages = {549-564}, pmid = {35962817}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Triage ; Water ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {As the impacts of climate change and water demands from irrigation continue to increase in the Murray-Darling Basin, water for the environment is becoming more scarce and the ecological conditions of many wetlands is poor. With water scarcity, conservation triage is becoming an increasingly relevant management option for environmental watering of wetlands. However, triage is controversial; being considered contrary to current conservation objectives and practices. We assessed environmental watering at two Ramsar wetlands, Macquarie Marshes and Gunbower Forest, based on international environmental treaty obligations and domestic policy settings, changes to flow regimes, wetland condition and current management. Triage decision making was found to be in tacit use at Macquarie Marshes, based on 'rules of thumb' and experiential ecohydrological knowledge, whereas formal environmental watering planning formed the basis for triage decision making at Gunbower Forest. We developed a framework for conservation triage of wetlands in the Murray-Darling Basin to stimulate change in the decision context for wetland conservation and adaptation under climate change. Conservation triage entails reframing of relationships between people and nature and values, rules and knowledge used by stakeholders. Because water is the medium by which wetland conservation outcomes eventuate, trade-offs between competing water uses can be realised with the triage framework.}, }
@article {pmid35962265, year = {2022}, author = {Ototo, EN and Ogutu, JO and Githeko, A and Said, MY and Kamau, L and Namanya, D and Simiyu, S and Mutimba, S}, title = {Forecasting the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Malaria in the Lake Victoria Basin Using Regionalized Climate Projections.}, journal = {Acta parasitologica}, volume = {67}, number = {4}, pages = {1535-1563}, pmid = {35962265}, issn = {1896-1851}, support = {Grant # 257734638//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; grant agreement No. 641918//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Lakes ; Forecasting ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Malaria epidemics are increasing in East Africa since the 1980s, coincident with rising temperature and widening climate variability. A projected 1-3.5 °C rise in average global temperatures by 2100 could exacerbate the epidemics by modifying disease transmission thresholds. Future malaria scenarios for the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) are quantified for projected climate scenarios spanning 2006-2100.<br><br>METHODS: Regression relationships are established between historical (1995-2010) clinical malaria and anaemia cases and rainfall and temperature for four East African malaria hotspots. The vector autoregressive moving average processes model, VARMAX (p,q,s), is then used to forecast malaria and anaemia responses to rainfall and temperatures projected with an ensemble of eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate change scenarios defined by three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5).<br><br>RESULTS: Maximum temperatures in the long rainy (March-May) and dry (June-September) seasons will likely increase by over 2.0&#xa0;&#xb0;C by 2070, relative to 1971-2000, under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Minimum temperatures (June-September) will likely increase by over 1.5-3.0&#xa0;&#xb0;C under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The short rains (OND) will likely increase more than the long rains (MAM) by the 2050s and 2070s under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Historical malaria cases are positively and linearly related to the 3-6-month running means of monthly rainfall and maximum temperature. Marked variation characterizes the patterns projected for each of the three scenarios across the eight General Circulation Models, reaffirming the importance of using an ensemble of models for projections.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The short rains (OND), wet season (MAM) temperatures and clinical malaria cases will likely increase in the Lake Victoria Basin. Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, including malaria control interventions could reduce the projected epidemics and cases. Interventions should reduce emerging risks, human vulnerability and environmental suitability for malaria transmission.}, }
@article {pmid35962167, year = {2023}, author = {Lin, Y and Rong, Y and Li, L and Li, F and Zhang, H and Yu, J}, title = {Spatiotemporal impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources and ecological sensitivity in the Mekong subregion in Cambodia.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {4023-4043}, pmid = {35962167}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; Cambodia ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; *Water Resources ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {Water resources in the Mekong subregion in Cambodia (MSC) have experienced dramatic changes in past decades, threatening regional ecosystem quality and sustainable development. Thus, it is important to explore the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources and ecological sensitivity. This study proposed an effective framework including spatiotemporal analysis of land use/cover change (LUCC) and ecological sensitivity assessment by combining remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system/science (GIS). An optimized feature space and a machine learning classification algorithm were constructed to extract four typical land cover types in the MSC from 1990 to 2020. An ecological sensitivity evaluation system, including four sub-sensitivities calculated by twelve indicators, was then constructed. The results suggest that severe shrinkage of water resources occurred before 2006, decreasing by 21.68%. The correlation between water resources and climate conditions displays a high to low level as human activity becomes involved. A significant spatiotemporal evolutionary pattern of ecological sensitivity was observed under the impact of external interference. Generally, the largest proportion of MSC belongs to the lightly sensitive level, which is mainly concentrated in the lower reaches, with an average of 33.93%. The highly sensitive area with a significant value in ecological protection has a slightly downward trend from 23.72 in 1990 to 22.55% in 2020.}, }
@article {pmid35962039, year = {2022}, author = {Prillaman, M}, title = {Climate change is making hundreds of diseases much worse.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {35962039}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid35961991, year = {2022}, author = {Corringham, TW and McCarthy, J and Shulgina, T and Gershunov, A and Cayan, DR and Ralph, FM}, title = {Climate change contributions to future atmospheric river flood damages in the western United States.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {13747}, pmid = {35961991}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Floods ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers ; United States ; }, abstract = {Atmospheric rivers (ARs) generate most of the economic losses associated with flooding in the western United States and are projected to increase in intensity with climate change. This is of concern as flood damages have been shown to increase exponentially with AR intensity. To assess how AR-related flood damages are likely to respond to climate change, we constructed county-level damage models for the western 11 conterminous states using 40 years of flood insurance data linked to characteristics of ARs at landfall. Damage functions were applied to 14 CMIP5 global climate models under the RCP4.5 "intermediate emissions" and RCP8.5 "high emissions" scenarios, under the assumption that spatial patterns of exposure, vulnerability, and flood protection remain constant at present day levels. The models predict that annual expected AR-related flood damages in the western United States could increase from $1 billion in the historical period to $2.3 billion in the 2090s under the RCP4.5 scenario or to $3.2 billion under the RCP8.5 scenario. County-level projections were developed to identify counties at greatest risk, allowing policymakers to target efforts to increase resilience to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35960799, year = {2022}, author = {Huang, X and Swain, DL}, title = {Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {8}, number = {32}, pages = {eabq0995}, pmid = {35960799}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods. Here, we investigate the physical characteristics of "plausible worst case scenario" extreme storm sequences capable of giving rise to "megaflood" conditions using a combination of climate model data and high-resolution weather modeling. Using the data from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we find that climate change has already doubled the likelihood of an event capable of producing catastrophic flooding, but larger future increases are likely due to continued warming. We further find that runoff in the future extreme storm scenario is 200 to 400% greater than historical values in the Sierra Nevada because of increased precipitation rates and decreased snow fraction. These findings have direct implications for flood and emergency management, as well as broader implications for hazard mitigation and climate adaptation activities.}, }
@article {pmid35960171, year = {2022}, author = {Rahimi-Ardabili, H and Magrabi, F and Coiera, E}, title = {Digital health for climate change mitigation and response: a scoping review.}, journal = {Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {2140-2152}, pmid = {35960171}, issn = {1527-974X}, support = {//Australian National Health and Medical Research Council/ ; APP1134919//Centre for Research Excellence in Digital Health/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Climate change poses a major threat to the operation of global health systems, triggering large scale health events, and disrupting normal system operation. Digital health may have a role in the management of such challenges and in greenhouse gas emission reduction. This scoping review explores recent work on digital health responses and mitigation approaches to climate change.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched Medline up to February 11, 2022, using terms for digital health and climate change. Included articles were categorized into 3 application domains (mitigation, infectious disease, or environmental health risk management), and 6 technical tasks (data sensing, monitoring, electronic data capture, modeling, decision support, and communication). The review was PRISMA-ScR compliant.<br><br>RESULTS: The 142 included publications reported a wide variety of research designs. Publication numbers have grown substantially in recent years, but few come from low- and middle-income countries. Digital health has the potential to reduce health system greenhouse gas emissions, for example by shifting to virtual services. It can assist in managing changing patterns of infectious diseases as well as environmental health events by timely detection, reducing exposure to risk factors, and facilitating the delivery of care to under-resourced areas.<br><br>DISCUSSION: While digital health has real potential to help in managing climate change, research remains preliminary with little real-world evaluation.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Significant acceleration in the quality and quantity of digital health climate change research is urgently needed, given the enormity of the global challenge.}, }
@article {pmid35959069, year = {2022}, author = {Léger-Goodes, T and Malboeuf-Hurtubise, C and Mastine, T and Généreux, M and Paradis, PO and Camden, C}, title = {Eco-anxiety in children: A scoping review of the mental health impacts of the awareness of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {872544}, pmid = {35959069}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Youth are increasingly aware of the negative effects of climate change on the planet and human health, but this knowledge can often come with significant affective responses, such as psychological distress, anger, or despair. Experiencing major "negative" emotions, like worry, guilt, and hopelessness in anticipation of climate change has been identified with the term eco-anxiety. Emerging literature focuses on adults' experience; however, little is known about the ways in which children and youth experience eco-anxiety.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The aim of this review was to: (1) identify the available evidence on the topic of eco-anxiety in children, (2) clarify the mental health consequences brought by the awareness of climate change in this population, and (3) identify knowledge gaps in the literature and considerations for future research.<br><br>METHODS: Given that the research on the topic of eco-anxiety in children is limited, that there are very few randomized controlled trials, and that the goal is not to analyze individual studies in-depth, a scoping review was used. Keywords pertaining to the themes of eco-anxiety, climate change and children (aged < 18 years) were used as search terms in five databases. Journal articles using qualitative and quantitative methods, as well as gray literature were examined by two independent reviewers. A descriptive-analytical method was used to chart the data that emerged from the literature. Eighteen articles were considered in the final analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Evidence confirms that children experience affective responses and eco-anxiety in reaction to then awareness of climate change. Mental health outcomes include depression, anxiety, and extreme emotions like sadness, anger, and fear. Youth from vulnerable communities, like indigenous communities, or those who have strong ties to the land are often identified as being emotionally impacted by climate change. The literature analyzed also describes how children and youth are coping with eco-anxiety, including maladaptive (e.g., denial) and adaptive responses (such as constructive hope, used as a positive coping mechanism). Preliminary considerations for parents, teachers and educators, mental health care providers, school systems, adults and people of power include adding age-appropriate climate education to the school curriculum, considering youth's emotions, and promoting healthy coping through empowerment. Important gaps exist in the definition of eco-anxiety in youth, as various characterizations of this emerging concept are found across articles.}, }
@article {pmid35958832, year = {2022}, author = {Ogunseitan, OA}, title = {Broad spectrum integration of climate change in health sciences curricula.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {954025}, pmid = {35958832}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Curriculum ; Humans ; }, abstract = {In response to a University of California systemwide initiative to expand the knowledge base of climate change, two half-day workshops were held for faculty in the College of Health Sciences at the UC Irvine. In the first workshop, 20 participants who teach in the Schools of Nursing, Medicine, Pharmacy, and Pharmaceutical Science, or the Program in Public Health convened to explore concepts of sustainability, theoretical models of curriculum integration, challenges to adding new competencies into professional training, and strategies for integrating climate change modules and case studies into the curricula. The second half-day workshop was held a year after the first workshop to review how faculty members have modified their syllabus to integrate climate change information with varying degrees of success. A case study is presented regarding an asynchronous fully online course Introduction to Global Health, which is open to enrollment by students from all campuses of the University of California. The outcomes revealed preferential adoption of models of curriculum integration which minimized disruption of the sequence of topics in pre-existing courses. These include, for example, the use of longitudinal climate datasets for quantitative analysis of disease outcomes, and description of episodic events involving extreme weather conditions to explore differences in social determinants of vulnerability to climate change impacts in different populations. Integration of climate change as a distinct topic seems easier in elective courses in comparison with required courses designed to cover pre-established professional knowledge, competencies, and skills. The emergent requirement for interprofessional training in the health sciences provides an opportunity for the development of a cross-cutting competency domain including climate change as a unifying theme in a stand-alone course or set of courses in a sequenced model of curriculum integration.}, }
@article {pmid35956706, year = {2022}, author = {Witzleben, S}, title = {Minimizing the Global Warming Potential with Geopolymer-Based Insulation Material with Miscanthus Fiber.}, journal = {Polymers}, volume = {14}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {35956706}, issn = {2073-4360}, support = {13FH158IN6//German Federal Ministry of Education and Research/ ; 0500035//European Regional Development Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Approximately 45% of global greenhouse gas emissions are caused by the construction and use of buildings. Thermal insulation of buildings in the current context of climate change is a well-known strategy to improve the energy efficiency of buildings. The development of renewable insulation material can overcome the drawbacks of widely used insulation systems based on polystyrene or mineral wool. This study analyzes the sustainability and thermal conductivity of new insulation materials made of Miscanthus x giganteus fibers, foaming agents, and alkali-activated fly ash binder. Life cycle assessments (LCA) are necessary to perform benchmarking of environmental impacts of new formulations of geopolymer-based insulation materials. The global warming potential (GWP) of the product is primarily determined by the main binder component sodium silicate. Sodium silicate's CO2 emissions depend on local production, transportation, and energy consumption. The results, which have been published during recent years, vary in a wide range from 0.3 kg to 3.3 kg CO2-eq. kg[-1]. The overall GWP of the insulation system based on Miscanthus fibers, with properties according to current thermal insulation regulations, reaches up to 95% savings of CO2 emissions compared to conventional systems. Carbon neutrality can be achieved through formulations containing raw materials with carbon dioxide emissions and renewable materials with negative GWP, thus balancing CO2 emissions.}, }
@article {pmid35955062, year = {2022}, author = {Tong, M and Wondmagegn, B and Xiang, J and Hansen, A and Dear, K and Pisaniello, D and Varghese, B and Xiao, J and Jian, L and Scalley, B and Nitschke, M and Nairn, J and Bambrick, H and Karnon, J and Bi, P}, title = {Hospitalization Costs of Respiratory Diseases Attributable to Temperature in Australia and Projections for Future Costs in the 2030s and 2050s under Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {35955062}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Hospitalization ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mortality ; *Respiration Disorders ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases/epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to estimate respiratory disease hospitalization costs attributable to ambient temperatures and to estimate the future hospitalization costs in Australia. The associations between daily hospitalization costs for respiratory diseases and temperatures in Sydney and Perth over the study period of 2010-2016 were analyzed using distributed non-linear lag models. Future hospitalization costs were estimated based on three predicted climate change scenarios-RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The estimated respiratory disease hospitalization costs attributable to ambient temperatures increased from 493.2 million Australian dollars (AUD) in the 2010s to more than AUD 700 million in 2050s in Sydney and from AUD 98.0 million to about AUD 150 million in Perth. The current cold attributable fraction in Sydney (23.7%) and Perth (11.2%) is estimated to decline by the middle of this century to (18.1-20.1%) and (5.1-6.6%), respectively, while the heat-attributable fraction for respiratory disease is expected to gradually increase from 2.6% up to 5.5% in Perth. Limitations of this study should be noted, such as lacking information on individual-level exposures, local air pollution levels, and other behavioral risks, which is common in such ecological studies. Nonetheless, this study found both cold and hot temperatures increased the overall hospitalization costs for respiratory diseases, although the attributable fractions varied. The largest contributor was cold temperatures. While respiratory disease hospitalization costs will increase in the future, climate change may result in a decrease in the cold attributable fraction and an increase in the heat attributable fraction, depending on the location.}, }
@article {pmid35954903, year = {2022}, author = {Li, Y and Bai, X}, title = {How Can China and the Belt and Road Initiative Countries Work Together Responding to Climate Change: A Perspective on Carbon Emissions and Economic Spillover Effects.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {35954903}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Carbon ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; Climate Change ; Economic Development ; }, abstract = {China attaches great importance to international cooperation on climate change, especially working with the Belt and Road Initiative relevant partners. From a perspective on carbon emissions and economic spillover effects, this study explores how China and the Belt and Road Initiative countries can work together to cope with climate change. It applies a three-region spillover effects model, based on the multi-regional input-output table and satellite extensions data of the Eora database, to examine mutual carbon emissions and economic spillover effects between China and the Belt and Road Initiative countries. The results show that: (1) Mutual carbon emissions spillover effects exist between China and the BRI countries, which is an important premise for them to cooperate responding to climate change. (2) There are great differences in carbon emission spillover effects among different sectors. Thus, optimizing the trade structure can bring benefits to carbon reduction for both sides. (3) The sectoral order of carbon emissions spillover effects, and economic spillover effects, is not consistent. In order to achieve an economic and environmental win-win, it is necessary to increase bilateral trade in those sectors with large economic spillover effects, and reduce other sectors with large carbon emissions spillover effects.}, }
@article {pmid35954764, year = {2022}, author = {Natour, S and Damri, O and Agam, G}, title = {The Effect of Global Warming on Complex Disorders (Mental Disorders, Primary Hypertension, and Type 2 Diabetes).}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {35954764}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/complications/epidemiology ; Global Warming ; HSP70 Heat-Shock Proteins/metabolism ; Heat-Shock Proteins/metabolism ; Humans ; *Hypertension/etiology ; *Mental Disorders/complications ; }, abstract = {Multiple studies imply a strong relationship between global warming (GW) and complex disorders. This review summarizes such reports concentrating on three disorders-mental disorders (MD), primary hypertension, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We also attempt to point at potential mechanisms mediating the effect of GW on these disorders. Concerning mental disorders, immediate candidates are brain levels of heat-shock proteins (HSPs). In addition, given that heat stress increases reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels which may lead to blood-brain barrier (BBB) breakdown and, hence, enhanced protein extravasation in the brain, this might finally cause, or exacerbate mental health. As for hypertension, since its causes are incompletely understood, the mechanism(s) by which heat exposure affects blood pressure (BP) is an open question. Since the kidneys participate in regulating blood volume and BP they are considered as a site of heat-associated disease, hence, we discuss hyperosmolarity as a potential mediator. In addition, we relate to autoimmunity, inflammation, sodium excretion, and HSP70 as risk factors that might play a role in the effect of heat on hypertension. In the case of T2D, we raise two potential mediators of the effect of exposure to ambient hot environment on the disease's incidence-brown adipose tissue metabolism and HSPs.}, }
@article {pmid35953981, year = {2022}, author = {Ocak Yetisgin, S and Önder, H and Şen, U and Piwczyński, D and Kolenda, M and Sitkowska, B and Yucel, C}, title = {Farmers' Risk Perception on Climate Change: Transhumance vs. Semi-Intensive Sheep Production Systems in Türkiye.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {12}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {35953981}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {PPI/APM/2019/1/00003//Polish National Agency for Academic Exchange/ ; 1919B011903284//TUBITAK/ ; }, abstract = {Sheep farmers' perceptions of climate change and its impacts and the adaptation strategies they consider to address these risks are of great importance in ensuring the resilience of farming practice. This study focused on sheep farmers' perception of climate change and the risks and actions taken to mitigate these impacts. A total of 68 surveys were carried out among sheep farmers (39 transhumance and 29 semi-intensive farmers) by two different representative production systems in Türkiye. Variables regarding the socio-economic profile, climate change impacts, and adaptation strategies were identified and analyzed. Principal component analysis and a Pearson Chi-square test were used to evaluate the data. Both farmers' groups accepted and perceived climate change, showing good awareness and perception. The farmers' attitudes towards adaptation to climate change were associated with production systems. Transhumance farmers had limited adaptation and coping strategies compared to semi-intensive farmers. Transhumance farmers focused mainly on selling livestock (mostly to cope with degraded natural grassland/feed deficiency) as an adaptive strategy. In contrast, semi-intensive farmers focused on modifying their farm management and feed operations, such as changing the feed ratio and supplement use, improving water and feed storage, and considering crop feed production. The knowledge obtained from this study could be helpful for farmers and policymakers who develop long-term small ruminant production strategies that consider the effects of climate change and adapt them to different farming systems in the Türkiye.}, }
@article {pmid35953877, year = {2023}, author = {Pandipati, S and Abel, DE}, title = {Anticipated impacts of climate change on women's health: A background primer.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {394-399}, doi = {10.1002/ijgo.14393}, pmid = {35953877}, issn = {1879-3479}, mesh = {Male ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Female ; Climate Change ; *Premature Birth ; Women's Health ; Temperature ; *Air Pollution ; }, abstract = {Due to human activities, atmospheric greenhouse gas levels have increased dramatically, leading to an increase in the global mean surface temperature by 1.1° Celsius. Unless we can achieve a significant reduction in emissions, the global mean surface temperature will continue to rise to a dangerous level. Adverse outcomes of this warming will include extreme weather events, a deterioration of food, water and air quality, decreased food security, and an increase in vector-borne infectious disease. Political and economic instability as well as mass population migration will result in reduced access to healthcare resources. Mitigation of and adaptation to climate change will be key determinants of humanity's survival in the face of this existential crisis. Women will be more adversely affected by climate change than men, and pregnant persons will be particularly vulnerable. Particular differential impacts on women include higher heat and particulate-related morbidity and mortality; pregnancy risks including preterm birth, fetal growth lag, hypertensive disorders; and mental health impacts. To prepare for the climate crisis, it is imperative for women's healthcare providers to assist their patients through political advocacy, provide family planning services, and focus on nutrition and lifestyle counseling.}, }
@article {pmid35952895, year = {2022}, author = {Alaniz, AJ and Smith-Ramírez, C and Rendón-Funes, A and Hidalgo-Corrotea, C and Carvajal, MA and Vergara, PM and Fuentes, N}, title = {Multiscale spatial analysis of headwater vulnerability in South-Central Chile reveals a high threat due to deforestation and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {849}, number = {}, pages = {157930}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157930}, pmid = {35952895}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Chile ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Spatial Analysis ; Water ; }, abstract = {Headwaters represent an essential component of hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomical systems, by providing constant water streams to the complete basin. However, despite the high importance of headwaters, there is a lack of vulnerability assessments worldwide. Identifying headwaters and their vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner can enable restauration and conservation programs. In this study, we assess the vulnerability of headwaters in South-Central Chile (38.4 to 43.2°S) considering multiple degradation factors related to climate change and land cover change. We analyzed 2292 headwaters, characterizing multiple factors at five spatial scales by using remote sensing data related to Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC), human disturbances, vegetation cover, climate change, potential water demand, and physiography. We then generated an index of vulnerability by integrating all the analyzed variables, which allowed us to map the spatial distribution of headwater vulnerability. Finally, to estimate the main drivers of degradation, we performed a Principal Components Analysis with an Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering, that allowed us to group headwaters according to the analyzed factors. The largest proportion of most vulnerable headwaters are located in the north of our study area with 48.1 %, 62.1 %, and 28.1 % of headwaters classified as highly vulnerable at 0, 10, and 30 m scale, respectively. The largest proportion of headwaters are affected by Climate Change (63.66 %) and LUCC (23.02 %) on average across all scales. However, we identified three clusters, in which the northern cluster is mainly affected by LUCC, while the Andean and Coastal clusters are mainly affected by climate change. Our results and methods present an informative picture of the current state of headwater vulnerability, identifying spatial patterns and drivers at multiple scales. We believe that the approach developed in this study could be useful for new studies in other zones of the world and can also promote Chilean headwater conservation.}, }
@article {pmid35952883, year = {2022}, author = {Zhai, R and Tao, F and Chen, Y and Dai, H and Liu, Z and Fu, B}, title = {Future water security in the major basins of China under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {849}, number = {}, pages = {157928}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157928}, pmid = {35952883}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Rivers ; *Water ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Freshwater is an essential resource for human lives, agriculture, industry, and ecology. Future water supply, water withdrawal, and water security under the impacts of climate change and human interventions have been of key concern. Numerous studies have projected future changes in river runoff and surface water resources under climate change. However, the changes in the major water withdrawal components including agricultural irrigation water, industrial, domestic and ecological water withdrawal, as well as the balance between water supply and withdrawal, under the joint impacts of climate change and socio-economic development have been seldom investigated, especially at the basin and national scales. In this study, changes in surface water resources, agricultural irrigation water, industrial, domestic and ecological water withdrawal, as well as the balances between water supply and withdrawal, under the baseline climate (2006-2015), 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios (2106-2115) in the 10 major basins across China, were investigated by combining modelling and local census data. The results showed that water withdrawal exceeded water supply in the basins of Liao River, Northwest River, Hai River, Yellow River and Huai River in the baseline period. Under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, the shortage of water resources would aggravate in the above-mentioned basins and the Songhua River basin. And the surplus of water resources would reduce substantially in the basins of Yangtze River, Southeast River and Pearl River. Overall, the difference between water supply and water withdrawal was 435.88 billion m[3] during the baseline period, and would be 261.84 and 218.39 billion m[3], respectively, under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. This study provides a comprehensive perspective on future water security in the 10 major basins across China, has important implications for water resources management and climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid35949255, year = {2022}, author = {Joseph, N and Libunao, T and Herrmann, E and Bartelt-Hunt, S and Propper, CR and Bell, J and Kolok, AS}, title = {Chemical Toxicants in Water: A GeoHealth Perspective in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {e2022GH000675}, pmid = {35949255}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {The editorial focuses on four major themes contextualized in a virtual GeoHealth workshop that occurred from June 14 to 16, 2021. Topics in that workshop included drinking water and chronic chemical exposure, environmental injustice, public health and drinking water policy, and the fate, transport, and human impact of aqueous contaminants in the context of climate change. The intent of the workshop was to further define the field of GeoHealth. This workshop emphasized on chemical toxicants that drive human health. The major calls for action emerged from the workshop include enhancing community engagement, advocating for equity and justice, and training the next generation.}, }
@article {pmid35948707, year = {2022}, author = {Stokes, CR and Abram, NJ and Bentley, MJ and Edwards, TL and England, MH and Foppert, A and Jamieson, SSR and Jones, RS and King, MA and Lenaerts, JTM and Medley, B and Miles, BWJ and Paxman, GJG and Ritz, C and van de Flierdt, T and Whitehouse, PL}, title = {Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {608}, number = {7922}, pages = {275-286}, pmid = {35948707}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Models ; Forecasting ; *Global Warming/history/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; History, 21st Century ; *Ice Cover ; Sea Level Rise/history/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth's glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.}, }
@article {pmid35948640, year = {2022}, author = {Reich, PB and Bermudez, R and Montgomery, RA and Rich, RL and Rice, KE and Hobbie, SE and Stefanski, A}, title = {Even modest climate change may lead to major transitions in boreal forests.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {608}, number = {7923}, pages = {540-545}, pmid = {35948640}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Biodiversity ; Climate Models ; *Global Warming/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Models, Biological ; North America ; Photosynthesis ; Rain ; *Taiga ; Temperature ; *Trees/classification/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The sensitivity of forests to near-term warming and associated precipitation shifts remains uncertain[1-9]. Herein, using a 5-year open-air experiment in southern boreal forest, we show divergent responses to modest climate alteration among juveniles of nine co-occurring North American tree species. Warming alone (+1.6 °C or +3.1 °C above ambient temperature) or combined with reduced rainfall increased the juvenile mortality of all species, especially boreal conifers. Species differed in growth responses to warming, ranging from enhanced growth in Acer rubrum and Acer saccharum to severe growth reductions in Abies balsamea, Picea glauca and Pinus strobus. Moreover, treatment-induced changes in both photosynthesis and growth help explain treatment-driven changes in survival. Treatments in which species experienced conditions warmer or drier than at their range margins resulted in the most adverse impacts on growth and survival. Species abundant in southern boreal forests had the largest reductions in growth and survival due to climate manipulations. By contrast, temperate species that experienced little mortality and substantial growth enhancement in response to warming are rare throughout southern boreal forest and unlikely to rapidly expand their density and distribution. Therefore, projected climate change will probably cause regeneration failure of currently dominant southern boreal species and, coupled with their slow replacement by temperate species, lead to tree regeneration shortfalls with potential adverse impacts on the health, diversity and ecosystem services of regional forests.}, }
@article {pmid35947638, year = {2022}, author = {Lemaître, JF and Gaillard, JM and Gilson, E}, title = {Telomeres as a sentinel of population decline in the context of global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {35}, pages = {e2211349119}, pmid = {35947638}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Global Warming ; *Lizards/genetics ; Population Dynamics ; Sentinel Species ; *Telomere/genetics ; }, }
@article {pmid35946031, year = {2022}, author = {Nkwasa, A and Chawanda, CJ and van Griensven, A}, title = {Regionalization of the SWAT+ model for projecting climate change impacts on sediment yield: An application in the Nile basin.}, journal = {Journal of hydrology. Regional studies}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {101152}, pmid = {35946031}, issn = {2214-5818}, abstract = {STUDY REGION: Nile basin.<br><br>STUDY FOCUS: Several studies have shown a relationship between climate change and changes in sediment yield. However, there are limited modeling applications that study this relationship at regional scales mainly due to data availability and computational cost. This study proposes a methodological framework using the SWAT+&#xa0;model to predict and project sediment yield at a regional scale in data-scarce regions using global datasets. We implement a framework that (a) incorporates topographic factors from high/medium resolution DEMs (b) incorporates crop phenology data (c) introduces an areal threshold to linearize sediment yield in large model units and (d) apply a hydrological mass balance calibration. We test this methodology in the Nile Basin using a model application with (revised) and without (default) the framework under historical and future climate projections.<br><br>Results show improved sediment yield estimates in the revised model, both in absolute values and spatial distribution when compared to measured and reported estimates. The contemporary long term (1989 - 2019) annual mean sediment yield in the revised model was 1.79&#xa0;t ha[-1] yr[-1] and projected to increase by 61&#xa0;% (44&#xa0;% more than the default estimates) in the future period (2071 - 2100), with the greatest sediment yield increase in the eastern part of the basin. Thus, the proposed framework improves and influences modeled and predicted sediment yield respectively.}, }
@article {pmid35945919, year = {2022}, author = {Guinto, RR and Cahatol, JJF and Lazaro, KYMS and Salazar, AFNC}, title = {Pathways linking climate change and HIV/AIDS: An updated conceptual framework and implications for the Philippines.}, journal = {The journal of climate change and health}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {100106}, pmid = {35945919}, issn = {2667-2782}, abstract = {As we commemorate the 40th anniversary of the discovery of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) while fighting the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, another global crisis - climate change - is threatening the progress achieved so far in the global fight against HIV/AIDS. The climate emergency is anticipated to generate dire health consequences worldwide in the coming decades. While the pathways that link climate change and different disease areas are better understood, the connection between climate change and HIV/AIDS is still yet to be recognized both in research and practice. In this review, we update one of the frameworks on the HIV-climate nexus described in earlier literature. Four major pathways have been identified: extreme weather events; sea level rise; changes in precipitation and temperature; and increased air pollution. These pathways impact the spectrum of HIV/AIDS-related outcomes through changes in social systems, healthcare disruption, and other climate-sensitive diseases, influenced by the social determinants of health. We also reflect on the significance of this updated framework for the Philippines, a country that is both highly vulnerable to the climate crisis and facing a rising HIV/AIDS epidemic. The framework can aid countries like the Philippines in filling gaps in research, policy, and program design to mount climate-adaptive HIV/AIDS responses. The HIV/AIDS and climate justice movements must also join forces in calling for accelerated worldwide decline in greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors to stabilize the global climate - this will benefit not just people affected by HIV/AIDS but everyone.}, }
@article {pmid35945318, year = {2023}, author = {Warsame, AA and Sheik-Ali, IA and Barre, GM and Ahmed, A}, title = {Examining the effects of climate change and political instability on maize production in Somalia.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {3293-3306}, pmid = {35945318}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; *Zea mays ; *Climate Change ; Somalia ; Agriculture/methods ; Economic Development ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {Agricultural production is sensitive to climate variability, so climate change-agriculture sector nexus is topical in developing countries. To this end, this study examines the impact of climate change variables-rainfall and temperature-and non-climatic factors on maize production in Somalia for the period between 1980 and 2018 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test, dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), variance decomposition(VD), and impulse response function (IRF). The empirical results of the ARDL bound test confirmed the presence of long-run cointegration between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables. Furthermore, the long-run results revealed that average temperature, average rainfall, and political instability significantly inhibit maize production in the long and short runs, but rainfall has a favorable effect on maize production in the short run. Furthermore, rural population and land area under maize cultivation have negative and positive effects on maize production in the long run, respectively-albeit they are statistically insignificant. The empirical results of the study are robust to different econometric methods. Based on these findings, the study emphasizes the importance of the de-escalation of conflicts and the implementation of irrigation facilities which will enhance the productivity of maize crop production.}, }
@article {pmid35945075, year = {2022}, author = {Bohan, DA and Richter, A and Bane, M and Therond, O and Pocock, MJO}, title = {Farmer-led agroecology for biodiversity with climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {37}, number = {11}, pages = {927-930}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2022.07.006}, pmid = {35945075}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Farmers ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The increasing pace of climate change is an existential threat to farming continuity and biodiversity. Agricultural innovation is running too slowly but could be accelerated by a change in the agroecological narrative. A farmer-led agroecology prioritising farming continuity for biodiversity would speed up innovation and better serve science and society.}, }
@article {pmid35944914, year = {2022}, author = {Tanne, JH}, title = {US Senate passes landmark bill to tackle climate change and cut drug costs.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {378}, number = {}, pages = {o1976}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o1976}, pmid = {35944914}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Drug Costs ; Humans ; Politics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid35941295, year = {2022}, author = {Ozturk, U and Bozzolan, E and Holcombe, EA and Shukla, R and Pianosi, F and Wagener, T}, title = {How climate change and unplanned urban sprawl bring more landslides.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {608}, number = {7922}, pages = {262-265}, pmid = {35941295}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*City Planning/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Landslides/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Rain ; }, }
@article {pmid35940231, year = {2022}, author = {Li, C and Managi, S}, title = {Global malaria infection risk from climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {214}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {114028}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.114028}, pmid = {35940231}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {As a long-standing public health issue, malaria still severely affects many parts of the world, especially Africa. With greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures continue to rise. Based on diverse shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), future temperatures can be estimated. However, the impacts of climate change on malaria infection rates in all epidemic regions are unknown. Here, we estimate the differences in global malaria infection rates predicted under different SSPs during several periods as well as malaria infection case changes (MICCs) resulting from those differences. Our results indicate that the global MICCs resulting from the conversion from SSP1-2.6 to SSP2-4.5, to SSP3-7.0, and to SSP5-8.5 are 6.506 (with a 95% uncertainty interval [UI] of 6.150-6.861) million, 3.655 (3.416-3.894) million, and 2.823 (2.635-3.012) million, respectively, from 2021 to 2040; these values represent increases of 2.699%, 1.517%, and 1.171%, respectively, compared to the 241 million infection cases reported in 2020. Temperatures increases will adversely affect malaria the most in Africa during the 2021-2040 period. From 2081 to 2100, the MICCs obtained for the three scenario shifts listed above are -79.109 (-83.626 to -74.591) million, -238.337 (-251.920 to -0.141) million, and -162.692 (-174.628 to -150.757) million, corresponding to increases of -32.825%, -98.895%, and -67.507%, respectively. Climate change will increase the danger and risks associated with malaria in the most vulnerable regions in the near term, thus aggravating the difficulty of eliminating malaria. Reducing GHG emissions is a potential pathway to protecting people from malaria.}, }
@article {pmid35937473, year = {2022}, author = {Pais-Costa, AJ and Lievens, EJP and Redón, S and Sánchez, MI and Jabbour-Zahab, R and Joncour, P and Van Hoa, N and Van Stappen, G and Lenormand, T}, title = {Phenotypic but no genetic adaptation in zooplankton 24 years after an abrupt +10°C climate change.}, journal = {Evolution letters}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {284-294}, pmid = {35937473}, issn = {2056-3744}, abstract = {The climate is currently warming fast, threatening biodiversity all over the globe. Populations often adapt rapidly to environmental change, but for climate warming very little evidence is available. Here, we investigate the pattern of adaptation to an extreme +10°C climate change in the wild, following the introduction of brine shrimp Artemia franciscana from San Francisco Bay, USA, to Vinh Chau saltern in Vietnam. We use a resurrection ecology approach, hatching diapause eggs from the ancestral population and the introduced population after 13 and 24 years (∼54 and ∼100 generations, respectively). In a series of coordinated experiments, we determined whether the introduced Artemia show increased tolerance to higher temperatures, and the extent to which genetic adaptation, developmental plasticity, transgenerational effects, and local microbiome differences contributed to this tolerance. We find that introduced brine shrimp do show increased phenotypic tolerance to warming. Yet strikingly, these changes do not have a detectable additive genetic component, are not caused by mitochondrial genetic variation, and do not seem to be caused by epigenetic marks set by adult parents exposed to warming. Further, we do not find any developmental plasticity that would help cope with warming, nor any protective effect of heat-tolerant local microbiota. The evolved thermal tolerance might therefore be entirely due to transgenerational (great)grandparental effects, possibly epigenetic marks set by parents who were exposed to high temperatures as juveniles. This study is a striking example of "missing heritability," where a large adaptive phenotypic change is not accompanied by additive genetic effects.}, }
@article {pmid35935267, year = {2022}, author = {Abrham, T and Mekuyie, M}, title = {Effects of climate change on pastoral households in the Harshin District of the Somali Region, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1202}, pmid = {35935267}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This study was conducted in the Harshin District of the Somali Region, Ethiopia, to understand the climate change trends, their consistency with pastoralists' perceptions and their effects on pastoral households. The study used both qualitative and quantitative data collected from 143 households through household surveys. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were also employed to triangulate and substantiate the reports from household surveys. Data were analysed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) and chi-square tests to test a degree of significance between the pastoral and agropastoral households for the impact of climate change. Mann-Kendall's trend test and Sen's slope estimator were employed to determine climate change trends of the study area. The result showed that pastoral households perceived an increasing trend in annual temperature and a decreasing trend in annual and seasonal rainfall. Mann-Kendall's trend analysis confirmed pastoral communities' perceptions of higher temperatures and rainfall variability, with the exception of a long-term decline in rainfall. The findings further indicated that six droughts (one severe and five moderate) were observed for the period 1983-2017. The result indicated that the significant increase in temperature along with high interannual and seasonal rainfall variability have been causing adverse impacts on crop and livestock production. Therefore, there is a need to provide drought-tolerant and early-maturing crops and improved livestock breeds for pastoral households. Water-related interventions such as small-scale irrigation farming and water harvesting during good rainy seasons is also paramount to enhance climate resilience of the local people.}, }
@article {pmid35934024, year = {2022}, author = {Roy, P and Pal, SC and Chakrabortty, R and Chowdhuri, I and Saha, A and Shit, M}, title = {Climate change and groundwater overdraft impacts on agricultural drought in India: Vulnerability assessment, food security measures and policy recommendation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {849}, number = {}, pages = {157850}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157850}, pmid = {35934024}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Food Security ; *Groundwater ; India ; Policy ; Security Measures ; }, abstract = {The problem of drought in India is a major issue in terms of various adverse impacts on livelihood of society. Drought Early Warning System (DEWS), a real-time drought-monitoring tool, has reported that over a fifth of India's geographical area (21.06 %) is suffering drought-like situations. This is 62 % larger than the drought-affected area during the same period last year, which was 7.86 %. Drought affects 21.06 %, with conditions ranging from unusually dry to extremely dry. While 1.63 % and 1.73 % of the area are experiencing 'extreme' or 'exceptional' dry conditions, 2.17 % is experiencing 'severe' dry conditions. Under 'moderate' dry circumstances, up to 8.15 % is possible. In this perspective groundwater vulnerability assessment in the overall country is needed for implementing the sustainable and long-term strategies for escaping from this type of hazardous situation. The main objective of this study is to estimate the drought vulnerability in changing climate which eventually influences the food security of India. The groundwater overdraft is one of the crucial elements in agricultural drought vulnerability. Various related parameters have been selected for estimating the drought vulnerability and its impact to food security in India. Here, MaxEnt (maximum entropy) and ANN (analytical neural network) has been considered in this perspective. The AUC values for the training datasets in the ANN and MaxEnt model are 0.891 and 0.921, respectively. The AUC values in ANN and MaxEnt model for the validation datasets are 0.876 and 0.904, respectively. Here MaxEnt model is most optimal than ANN considering predictive accuracy. From this study analysis it is established that western, south and middle portion of country is very much prone to drought vulnerability. So, special emphases in terms of the regional planning have to be taken into consideration for sustainable planning.}, }
@article {pmid35933525, year = {2023}, author = {Pablo-Romero, MDP and Sánchez-Braza, A and González-Jara, D}, title = {Economic growth and global warming effects on electricity consumption in Spain: a sectoral study.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {15}, pages = {43096-43112}, pmid = {35933525}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {US-1260925) US/JUNTA/FEDER//Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) and Consejer&#xed;a de Econom&#xed;a, conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad of Junta de Andaluc&#xed;a/ ; RTI2018-096725-B-I00//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Economic Development ; *Global Warming ; Spain ; Industry ; Electricity ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {This paper analyzes the effect of certain factors on electricity consumption in Spain at a sectoral level. An electricity consumption function has been estimated by using panel data, depending on gross value added (GVA), temperatures, capitalization, and human capital. This function is obtained for total productive electricity consumption and for the agricultural, construction, industrial, service, and public administration sectors, referring to the 17 Autonomous Communities of Spain for the 2000-2013 period. The obtained results show important sectoral differences in the effect that GVA has on electricity consumption, indicating a positive and increasing effect of temperatures above 22 °C in the total economy and in the tertiary sector, and a negative effect of temperatures below 18 °C in some sectors. These results may indicate that global warming may induce an electricity demand growth in Spain, especially related to cooling needs. The results also highlight the positive effects of capitalization in all sectors, and the negative effects of human capital, except for the public administration sector. In this context, it may be appropriate to carry out policies that mitigate this consumption growth, reinforcing energy efficiency measures, and human capital investments.}, }
@article {pmid35932785, year = {2022}, author = {He, C and Kim, H and Hashizume, M and Lee, W and Honda, Y and Kim, SE and Kinney, PL and Schneider, A and Zhang, Y and Zhu, Y and Zhou, L and Chen, R and Kan, H}, title = {The effects of night-time warming on mortality burden under future climate change scenarios: a modelling study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {e648-e657}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00139-5}, pmid = {35932785}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {China/epidemiology ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The health impacts of climate warming are usually quantified based on daily average temperatures. However, extra health risks might result from hot nights. We project the future mortality burden due to hot nights.<br><br>METHODS: We selected the hot night excess (HNE) to represent the intensity of night-time heat, which was calculated as the excess sum of high temperature during night time. We collected historical mortality data in 28 cities from three east Asian countries, from 1981 to 2010. The associations between HNE and mortality in each city were firstly examined using a generalised additive model in combination with a distributed lag non-linear model over lag 0-10 days. We then pooled the cumulative associations using a univariate meta-regression model at the national or regional levels. Historical and future hourly temperature series were projected under two scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions from 1980-2099, with ten general circulation models. We then projected the attributable fraction of mortality due to HNE under each scenario.<br><br>FINDINGS: Our dataset comprised 28 cities across three countries (Japan, South Korea, and China), including 9&#x2008;185&#x2008;598 deaths. The time-series analyses showed the HNE was significantly associated with increased mortality risks, the relative mortality risk on days with hot nights could be 50% higher than on days with non-hot nights. Compared with the rise in daily mean temperature (lower than 20%), the frequency of hot nights would increase more than 30% and the intensity of hot night would increase by 50% by 2100s. The attributable fraction of mortality due to hot nights was projected to be 3&#xb7;68% (95% CI 1&#xb7;20 to 6&#xb7;17) under a strict emission control scenario (SSP126). Under a medium emission control scenario (SSP245), the attributable fraction of mortality was projected to increase up to 5&#xb7;79% (2&#xb7;07 to 9&#xb7;52), which is 0&#xb7;95% (-0&#xb7;39 to 2&#xb7;29) more than the attributable fraction of mortality due to daily mean temperature.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Our study provides evidence for significant mortality risks and burden in association with night-time warming across Japan, South Korea, and China. Our findings suggest a growing role of night-time warming in heat-related health effects in a changing climate.<br><br>FUNDING: The National Natural Science Foundation of China, Shanghai International Science and Technology Partnership Project.}, }
@article {pmid35932509, year = {2022}, author = {Rodriguez-Burgos, AM and Briceño-Zuluaga, FJ and Ávila Jiménez, JL and Hearn, A and Peñaherrera-Palma, C and Espinoza, E and Ketchum, J and Klimley, P and Steiner, T and Arauz, R and Joan, E}, title = {The impact of climate change on the distribution of Sphyrna lewini in the tropical eastern Pacific.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {180}, number = {}, pages = {105696}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105696}, pmid = {35932509}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Chile ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Sharks/physiology ; }, abstract = {Variability and climate change due to anthropic influence have brought about alterations to marine ecosystems, that, in turn, have affected the physiology and metabolism of ectotherm species, such as the common hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini). However, the impact that climate variability may have on this species' distribution, particularly in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Marine Corridor, which is considered an area with great marine biodiversity, is unknown. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effect of derivate impact of climate change on the oceanographic distribution of the hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Marine Corridor, contrasting the present and future scenarios for 2050. The methodology used was an ecological niche model based on the KUENM R package software that uses the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The modelling was made for the year 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. A total of 952 models were made, out of which only one met the statistical parameters established as optimal, for future scenarios. The environmental suitability for S.lewini shows that this species would migrate to the south in the Chilean Pacific, associated with a possible warming that the equatorial zone will have and the possible cooling that the subtropical zone of the South Pacific will have by 2050, the product of changes in oceanographic dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid35932349, year = {2023}, author = {Nandi, S and Swain, S}, title = {Analysis of heatwave characteristics under climate change over three highly populated cities of South India: a CMIP6-based assessment.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {44}, pages = {99013-99025}, pmid = {35932349}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; India ; *Hot Temperature ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is arguably the most alarming global concern of the twenty-first century, particularly due to the increased frequency of meteorological extremes, e.g., heatwaves, droughts, and floods. Heatwaves are considered a potential health risk and urge further study, robust preparedness, and policy framing. This study presents an analysis of heatwave characteristics for historical (1980-2014), near-future (2021-2055), and far-future (2056-2090) scenarios over three highly populated cities of South India, i.e., Bangalore, Chennai, and Hyderabad. Two different approaches, i.e., the India Meteorological Department (IMD) criterion and the percentile-based criterion, are considered for defining the threshold of a heatwave day. Nine general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) experiment are selected, evaluated after bias correction, and the best performer was utilized to obtain the temperature projections corresponding to two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and 5-8.5) for the future periods. The results reveal a high frequency of heatwave days over the cities in recent years from both approaches, which may further exacerbate in the future, thereby putting a large population at risk. The number of heatwave days is much higher for SSP5-8.5 than that for SSP2-4.5, depicting the direct effects of anthropogenic activities on the frequency of heatwaves. The detailed analysis of heatwave projections will help develop equitable heat resilient mitigation and adaptation strategies for the future, thereby alleviating their pernicious impacts.}, }
@article {pmid35928231, year = {2022}, author = {Tonina, D and McKean, JA and Isaak, D and Benjankar, RM and Tang, C and Chen, Q}, title = {Climate Change Shrinks and Fragments Salmon Habitats in a Snow-Dependent Region.}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {49}, number = {12}, pages = {1-10}, pmid = {35928231}, issn = {0094-8276}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens biodiversity through global alteration of habitats, but efficient conservation responses are often hindered by imprecise downscaling of impacts. Besides thermal effects, warming also drives important ancillary environmental changes, such as when river hydrology evolves in response to climate forcing. Earlier snowmelt runoff and summer flow declines are broadly manifested in snow-dependent regions and relevant to socioeconomically important cold-water fishes. Here, we mechanistically quantify how climate-induced summer flow declines during historical and future periods cause complex local changes in Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) habitats for juveniles and spawning adults. Changes consisted of large reductions in useable habitat area and connectivity between the main channel and adjacent off-channel habitats. These reductions decrease the capacity of freshwater habitats to support historical salmon abundances and could pose risks to population persistence in some areas.}, }
@article {pmid35928217, year = {2022}, author = {Bonetti, S and Sutanudjaja, EH and Mabhaudhi, T and Slotow, R and Dalin, C}, title = {Climate change impacts on water sustainability of South African crop production.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {17}, number = {8}, pages = {084017}, pmid = {35928217}, issn = {1748-9326}, abstract = {Agricultural production in arid and semi-arid regions is particularly vulnerable to climate change, which, combined with projected food requirements, makes the sustainable management of water resources critical to ensure national and global food security. Using South Africa as an example, we map the spatial distribution of water use by seventeen major crops under current and future climate scenarios, and assess their sustainability in terms of water resources, using the water debt repayment time indicator. We find high water debts, indicating unsustainable production, for potatoes, pulses, grapes, cotton, rice, and wheat due to irrigation in arid areas. Climate change scenarios suggest an intensification of such pressure on water resources, especially in regions already vulnerable, with a country-scale increase in irrigation demand of between 6.5% and 32% by 2090. Future land use planning and management should carefully consider the spatial distribution and local sustainability of crop water requirements to reduce water consumption in water risk hotspots and guarantee long-term food security.}, }
@article {pmid35927281, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, B and Yin, J and Wu, F and Wang, D and Jiang, Z and Song, X}, title = {Climate change did not alter the effects of Bt maize on soil Collembola in northeast China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {13435}, pmid = {35927281}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Arthropods ; Climate Change ; *Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; Zea mays/genetics ; }, abstract = {Bt maize is being increasingly cultivated worldwide as the effects of climate change are increasing globally. Bt maize IE09S034 and its near-isogenic non-Bt maize Zong 31 were used to investigate whether climate change alters the effects of Bt maize on soil Collembola. Warming and drought conditions were simulated using open-top chambers (OTC), and their effects on soil Collembola were evaluated. We found that the maize type had no significant effect on Collembola; however, the abundance and diversity of Collembola were significantly higher in the OTC than outside at the seedling stage; they were significantly lower in the OTC at the heading and mature stages. The interactions of the maize type with the OTC had no effect on these parameters. Therefore, Bt maize had no significant effect on soil Collembola, and the effects of climate warming and drought on soil Collembola depended on the ambient climatic conditions. When the temperature was low, collembolan abundance and diversity were promoted by warming; however, when the temperature was high and the humidity was low, collembolan abundance and diversity were inhibited by warming and drought. The climate changes simulated by the OTC did not alter the effects of Bt maize on soil Collembola.}, }
@article {pmid35927202, year = {2022}, author = {Baumann, AAW and Conway, N and Doblinger, C and Steinhauser, S and Paszko, A and Lehmann, F and Schneider, G and Schulz, CM and Schneider, F}, title = {Mitigation of climate change in health care: A survey for the evaluation of providers' attitudes and knowledge, and their view on their organization's readiness for change.}, journal = {Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen}, volume = {173}, number = {}, pages = {108-115}, doi = {10.1016/j.zefq.2022.05.013}, pmid = {35927202}, issn = {2212-0289}, mesh = {Attitude ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Germany ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is the 21[st] century's greatest threat to health. Anaesthesia is responsible for high levels of waste production, significant greenhouse gas emissions and extensive energy consumption. Our aim was to design an instrument to assess attitudes and knowledge among anaesthetists as well as their organisation's readiness for change regarding climate action.<br><br>METHODS: In 2020, the Provider Education and Evaluation Project (PEEP) questionnaire was sent to anaesthetists working at a university hospital, which contains 65 items in five areas: demographics, personal attitudes, organisational readiness, opportunities, and specific anaesthesiologic knowledge regarding climate action. Except for two open text questions, all questions were closed questions.<br><br>RESULTS: 104 anaesthetists responded to the survey (response rate 62%). Environmental protection and sustainability were important to all participants (100%). Most felt threatened by the ongoing climate crisis (94.2%). While most participants agreed that their employer had the financial or technological capacities and that sustainability targets were compatible with core business activities (approval >60% for all), they felt unprepared and stated that they had too little time to consider environmental aspects during daily routines (disapproval >60% for all). Furthermore, knowledge on topics such as ongoing efforts to tackle climate change or the climate footprint of drugs and medical products, was rather scarce.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The PEEP questionnaire is an applicable and viable tool to assess anaesthetists' knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and organisational readiness for change. While participants care about the climate crisis, organisational readiness was low, especially when it comes to staff readiness (i.e., skills and knowledge) and cultural readiness (i.e., shared values). These aspects need to be considered in order to successfully implement a carbon neutral health care system.}, }
@article {pmid35926642, year = {2022}, author = {Aimo, A and Lupon, J and Spitaleri, G and Domingo, M and Codina, P and Santiago-Vacas, E and Cediel, G and Zamora, E and Troya, M and Santesmases, J and Romero-Gonzalez, GA and Nunez, J and Martini, N and Emdin, M and Bayes-Genis, A}, title = {Global warming, renal function and heart failure over 20 years.}, journal = {International journal of cardiology}, volume = {365}, number = {}, pages = {100-105}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijcard.2022.07.043}, pmid = {35926642}, issn = {1874-1754}, mesh = {Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Creatinine ; Female ; Global Warming ; Glomerular Filtration Rate ; *Heart Failure ; Humans ; Kidney/physiology ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Stroke Volume ; *Ventricular Function, Left ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impact of increasing temperatures on renal function in heart failure (HF) outpatients has never been specifically analyzed.<br><br>METHODS: We retrieved creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values of all HF outpatients followed at a HF clinic and temperature data from 2002 to 2021. For each patient and each year we averaged values of creatinine, eGFR and monthly temperatures during summer and the rest of the year.<br><br>RESULTS: The study cohort included 2167 HF patients undergoing 25,865 elective visits, with a median of 14 visits for each patient (interquartile range 7-23). At the first visit, patients (70% men) had an age of 67&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;13&#xa0;years, and a left ventricular ejection fraction of 35&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;14%. Creatinine was 1.25&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;0.51&#xa0;mg/dL, and eGFR was 65&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;25&#xa0;mL/min/1.73&#xa0;m[2]. When pooling together all average values of creatinine and eGFR measured during summer or in the rest of the year, creatinine was significantly higher in summer (difference 0.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.04 to 0.05, p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001), and eGFR was slightly lower (difference&#xa0;-&#xa0;2.0, 95% CI -2.3 to -1.8, p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001). Temperature rise during summer increased from 2002 to 2021. The absolute (&#x394;) and percent (&#x394;%) elevation in temperature during summer displayed independent associations with &#x394; and &#x394;% creatinine and eGFR after adjusting for age, sex, plasma creatinine, and HF therapies.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of temperature elevation during summer has increased over 20&#xa0;years. This elevation correlates with the decline in renal function during summer. This might be an example of how global warming is affecting human health.}, }
@article {pmid35926624, year = {2022}, author = {Ghani, MU and Kamran, M and Ahmad, I and Arshad, A and Zhang, C and Zhu, W and Lou, S and Hou, F}, title = {Alfalfa-grass mixtures reduce greenhouse gas emissions and net global warming potential while maintaining yield advantages over monocultures.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {849}, number = {}, pages = {157765}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157765}, pmid = {35926624}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Carbon ; *Festuca ; Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; *Lolium ; Medicago sativa ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrogen ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Poaceae ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Improving forage productivity with lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from limited grassland has been a hotspot of interest in global agricultural production. In this study, we analyzed the effects of grasses (tall fescue, smooth bromegrass), legume (alfalfa), and alfalfa-grass (alfalfa + smooth bromegrass and alfalfa + tall fescue) mixtures on GHG emissions, net global warming potential (Net GWP), yield-based greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI), soil chemical properties and forage productivity in cultivated grassland in northwest China during 2020-2021. Our results demonstrated that alfalfa-grass mixtures significantly improved forage productivity. The highest total dry matter yield (DMY) during 2020 and 2021 was obtained from alfalfa-tall fescue (11,311 and 13,338 kg ha[-1]) and alfalfa-smooth bromegrass mixtures (10,781 and 12,467 kg ha[-1]). The annual cumulative GHG emissions from mixtures were lower than alfalfa monoculture. Alfalfa-grass mixtures significantly reduced GHGI compared with the grass or alfalfa monocultures. Furthermore, results indicated that grass, alfalfa and alfalfa-grass mixtures differentially affected soil chemical properties. Lower soil pH and C/N ratio were recorded in alfalfa monoculture. Alfalfa and mixtures increased soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil total nitrogen (STN) contents. Importantly, alfalfa-grass mixtures are necessary for improving forage productivity and mitigating the GHG emissions in this region. In conclusion, the alfalfa-tall fescue mixture lowered net GWP and GHGI in cultivated grassland while maintaining high forage productivity. These advanced agricultural practices could contribute to the development of climate-sustainable grassland production in China.}, }
@article {pmid35926049, year = {2022}, author = {Bhatti, UA and Nizamani, MM and Mengxing, H}, title = {Climate change threatens Pakistan's snow leopards.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {377}, number = {6606}, pages = {585-586}, doi = {10.1126/science.add9065}, pmid = {35926049}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Endangered Species ; Pakistan ; *Panthera ; }, }
@article {pmid35925465, year = {2023}, author = {Akan, T}, title = {Investigating renewable energy-climate change nexus by aggregate or sectoral renewable energy use?.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {2042-2060}, pmid = {35925465}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Economic Development ; Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {Investigating the effect of renewable energy on the drivers of climate change correctly is significant as it is the basic source of climate change mitigation. In the extant literature, its effect on climate change has been estimated predominantly by regressing aggregate rather than sectoral renewable energy use either on aggregate greenhouse gas emissions or the components of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like carbon dioxide emissions. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates if we should estimate the nexus (i) by the causal effects running from aggregate or sectoral renewable energy use to GHG emissions and (ii) by the causal effects running from renewable energy consumption to aggregate GHG emissions or to its components like carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. To this end, the paper introduces negative and positive (functional) complementarity between sectoral renewable energy consumptions in reducing or increasing GHG emissions, takes 20 OECD countries from 1990 to 2019, and uses augmented and non-augmented auto-regressive distributed lag approach and vector error correction mechanism. The study finds substantial differences among the results coming out of (i) regressing aggregate and sectoral renewable energy consumption on GHG emissions and (ii) regressing renewable energy consumption on aggregate GHG emissions and on CO2 emissions. The paper suggests regressing sectoral rather than aggregate renewable energy consumption on the components of aggregate GHG emissions like CO2 emissions rather than on aggregate GHG emissions to produce workable, specific, and conclusive policy alternatives.}, }
@article {pmid35924669, year = {2023}, author = {Ağırbaş, NC and Sarıçam, S}, title = {An examination of the state of awareness of the problem of climate change in Turkey for those living in cities: The case of Eskişehir Province.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {382-394}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4664}, pmid = {35924669}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Cities ; Turkey ; *Quality of Life ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change directly or indirectly affects the standard of living and quality of life for everyone, and so it has generated widespread interest and concern. Human awareness of global climate change, knowledge of the dimensions of the problem, and its consequences, are the first and most important steps towards a solution. However much the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement are seen as global efforts to combat climate change, economic outcomes overshadow worries about climate change. Therefore, even if individual awareness seems small for such a large problem, it is as an effective first step. In this regard, a survey was conducted among 384 people living in the districts of Odunpazarı and Tepebaşı of Eskişehir province to determine their levels of awareness and knowledge of climate change. Survey participants were evaluated with regard to the district in which they lived and their gender, age group, education, membership in nongovernmental organizations (NGO), and income. Correlations between various determinant characteristics of the participants and their knowledge of climate change and readiness to pay more for goods produced without harming the environment are presented with χ[2] analysis, percentages, and proportions. No statistically significant correlation was found between knowledge of climate change of the participants and district, age, or gender, but a significant correlation was found between education and income levels, and NGO membership. There was no correlation between being willing to pay more for goods produced without harming the environment and district. No correlation was found between NGO membership and readiness to pay more for goods produced without harming the environment. Both central districts are close to each other and are very similar in terms of lifestyle, income, and the practices of local administrations regarding climate change and environmental problems. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:382-394. © 2022 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid35923895, year = {2022}, author = {Fujimoto, M and Nishiura, H}, title = {Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, Japan.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e13838}, pmid = {35923895}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Humans ; *Hot Temperature ; Climate Change ; Japan/epidemiology ; Tokyo/epidemiology ; Ambulances ; *Heat Stroke/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Predictive scenarios of heatstroke over the long-term future have yet to be formulated. The purpose of the present study was to generate baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations using climate change scenario datasets in Tokyo, Japan.<br><br>METHODS: Data on the number of heat-related ambulance transportations in Tokyo from 2015 to 2019 were examined, and the relationship between the risk of heat-related ambulance transportations and the daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) was modeled using three simple dose-response models. To quantify the risk of heatstroke, future climatological variables were then retrieved to compute the WBGT up to the year 2100 from climate change scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) using two scenario models. The predicted risk of heat-related ambulance transportations was embedded onto the future age-specific projected population.<br><br>RESULTS: The proportion of the number of days with a WBGT above 28&#xb0;C is predicted to increase every five years by 0.16% for RCP2.6, 0.31% for RCP4.5, and 0.68% for RCP8.5. In 2100, compared with 2000, the number of heat-related ambulance transportations is predicted to be more than three times greater among people aged 0-64 years and six times greater among people aged 65 years or older. The variance of the heatstroke risk becomes greater as the WBGT increases.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The increased risk of heatstroke for the long-term future was demonstrated using a simple statistical approach. Even with the RCP2.6 scenario, with the mildest impact of global warming, the risk of heatstroke is expected to increase. The future course of heatstroke predicted by our approach acts as a baseline for future studies.}, }
@article {pmid35922809, year = {2022}, author = {Yeo, SC and Ooi, XY and Tan, TSM}, title = {Sustainable kidney care delivery and climate change - a call to action.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {75}, pmid = {35922809}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Environment ; Humans ; Kidney ; *Renal Dialysis ; }, abstract = {The delivery of kidney care, particularly haemodialysis treatment, can result in substantial environmental impact through greenhouse emissions, natural resources depletion and waste generation. However, strategies exist to mitigate this impact and improve long term environmental sustainability for the provision of haemodialysis treatment. The nephrology community has begun taking actions to improve the environmental sustainability of dialysis, but much work remains to be done by healthcare professionals, dialysis providers and professional organisations.}, }
@article {pmid35922458, year = {2022}, author = {Kuo, CC and Liu, YC and Su, Y and Liu, HY and Lin, CT}, title = {Responses of alpine summit vegetation under climate change in the transition zone between subtropical and tropical humid environment.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {13352}, pmid = {35922458}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Altitude ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Climate change has caused severe impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity globally, especially to vulnerable mountain ecosystems; the summits bear the brunt of such effects. Therefore, six summits in Taiwan were monitored based on a standardized multi-summit approach. We used both statistical downscaling of climate data and vegetation cover data to calculate climate niches to assess the impacts of climate change. Two indicators, thermophilic and moist-philic, were applied to evaluate the overall response of vegetation dynamics. The results revealed that potential evapotranspiration increased significantly and led to a declining tendency in monthly water balance from 2014 to 2019. The general pattern of species richness was a decline. The difference in plant cover among the three surveys showed an inconsistent pattern, although some dominant species expanded, such as the dwarf bamboo Yushania niitakayamensis. The thermophilic indicator showed that species composition had changed so that there were more thermophilic species at the three lowest summits. The moist-philization indicator showed a decline of humid-preferred species in the latest monitoring period. Although total precipitation did not decrease, our results suggest that the variability in precipitation with increased temperature and potential evapotranspiration altered alpine vegetation composition and could endanger vulnerable species in the future.}, }
@article {pmid35922248, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, JY and Guo, W and Li, HL}, title = {[Chinese foreign medical aid work should pay attention to heat stroke as a preventable disease under global warming context].}, journal = {Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine]}, volume = {56}, number = {8}, pages = {1159-1164}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20220110-00035}, pmid = {35922248}, issn = {0253-9624}, support = {RCYJ20202022-2020//Tiantan Hospital Talent Introduction Start-up Fund/ ; }, mesh = {China ; Global Warming ; *Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology/therapy ; *Heat Stroke/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Morbidity ; }, abstract = {Within the global warming context, heat stroke heavily threatens human health as the most severe type of heat-related illnesses. Despite the urgent onset, severe condition and poor prognosis, heat stroke is entirely preventable and treatable. Most of the recipient countries of Chinese foreign medical aid work are concentrated in the tropical and subtropical regions. It is necessary to popularize the knowledge of heat stroke and improve the ability of diagnose and treatment among foreign medical aid members, which is critical to enhance the quality of medical service and provide better medical care for recipient countries and workers in Chinese-funded institutions. This article reviews the latest research progress in the epidemiology, pathophysiology, diagnosis, and treatment of heat stroke to provide scientific reference for actively implementing interventions and reducing morbidity and mortality.}, }
@article {pmid35922247, year = {2022}, author = {Li, HL and Guo, W}, title = {[New challenges for Chinese foreign medical aid in the context of global warming: heat-related illnesses].}, journal = {Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine]}, volume = {56}, number = {8}, pages = {1154-1158}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20220110-00034}, pmid = {35922247}, issn = {0253-9624}, support = {RCYJ20202022-2020//Tiantan Hospital Talent Introduction Start-up Fund/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Transients and Migrants ; }, abstract = {Global warming poses an ever-increasing threat to human health, with heat-related illnesses affecting economically underdeveloped tropical regions, posing new challenges to Chinese foreign medical aid work in Africa. By improving the professional ability of foreign aid medical team members and paying attention to the prevention and treatment of heat-related illnesses, they can provide better medical services for recipient countries and Chinese migrant workers in Africa while ensuring their safety.}, }
@article {pmid35922075, year = {2022}, author = {Selley, P}, title = {NHS and climate change: stop 28 day prescriptions for drugs taken long term.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {378}, number = {}, pages = {o1933}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o1933}, pmid = {35922075}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Drug Prescriptions ; Humans ; *Smoking Cessation ; *State Medicine ; }, }
@article {pmid35921927, year = {2022}, author = {Leno, N and Ajayan, AS and Thampatti, KCM and Sudharmaidevi, CR and Aparna, B and Gladis, R and Rani, TS and Joseph, B and Meera, AV and Nagula, S}, title = {Humification evaluation and carbon recalcitrance of a rapid thermochemical digestate fertiliser from degradable solid waste for climate change mitigation in the tropics.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {849}, number = {}, pages = {157752}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157752}, pmid = {35921927}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Fertilizers/analysis ; Soil ; *Solid Waste/analysis ; Water/analysis ; }, abstract = {Indiscriminate, unhygienic and unscientific disposal of solid wastes poses significant risks leading to soil, water and air pollution. Abiotic and nonenzymatic rapid thermochemical processing technology provides a solution for the management of degradable solid waste at the source, converting it to organic digestate fertiliser within a day, thus overcoming the main drawback of the long time span required for composting. A study was performed to evaluate the maturity parameters and the extent of humification of the thermochemical digestate fertiliser and the raw biowaste substrate. We made an objective assessment of the recalcitrance efficiency of the added thermochemical digestate fertiliser on tropical Ultisol soil grown with two cycles of tomato and amaranthus crop sequences. Unlike the raw biowaste substrate, the thermochemical digestate complied with the threshold standards of compost maturity parameters and humification indices. Soil application of the thermochemical digestate fertiliser brought significant additions to the labile, microbial biomass and recalcitrant fractions of soil organic carbon within a year after four cycles of crop growth, as revealed by principal component analysis. Linear regression analysis revealed a strong and significant fit of the labile and microbial biomass carbon fractions with the total dry biomass of amaranthus and tomato. The thermochemical digestate fertiliser imparted a recalcitrance index of 85.57 % and enhanced the soil carbon stock by 4.81 % over the compost-based treatments with a superior soil carbon sequestration rate. The study confirmed that thermochemical digestate fertiliser is a fairly humified, high-resource organic fertiliser input with enhanced agronomic biomass production and recalcitrance efficiency, favouring soil carbon sequestration in Ultisol soils of the tropics.}, }
@article {pmid35919389, year = {2022}, author = {Gao, X and Liu, J and Huang, Z}, title = {The impact of climate change on the distribution of rare and endangered tree Firmiana kwangsiensis using the Maxent modeling.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {e9165}, pmid = {35919389}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The upsurge in anthropogenic climate change has accelerated the habitat loss and fragmentation of wild animals and plants. The rare and endangered plants are important biodiversity elements. However, the lack of comprehensive and reliable information on the spatial distribution of these organisms has hampered holistic and efficient conservation management measures. We explored the consequences of climate change on the geographical distribution of Firmiana kwangsiensis (Malvaceae), an endangered species, to provide a reference for conservation, introduction, and cultivation of this species in new ecological zones. Modeling of the potential distribution of F. kwangsiensis under the current and two future climate scenarios in maximum entropy was performed based on 30 occurrence records and 27 environmental variables of the plant. We found that precipitation-associated and temperature-associated variables limited the potentially suitable habitats for F. kwangsiensis. Our model predicted 259,504 km[2] of F. kwangsiensis habitat based on 25 percentile thresholds. However, the high suitable habitat for F. kwangsiensis is only about 41,027 km[2]. F. kwangsiensis is most distributed in Guangxi's protected areas. However, the existing reserves are only 2.7% of the total suitable habitat and 4.2% of the high suitable habitat for the plant, lower than the average protection area in Guangxi (7.2%). This means the current protected areas network is insufficient, underlining the need for alternative conservation mechanisms to protect the plant habitat. Our findings will help identify additional F. kwangsiensis localities and potential habitats and inform the development and implementation of conservation, management, and cultivation practices of such rare tree species.}, }
@article {pmid35917965, year = {2022}, author = {Rodríguez Flores, S and Muñoz-Robles, C and Ortíz-Rodríguez, AJ and Quevedo Tiznado, JA and Julio-Miranda, P}, title = {Historical and projected changes in hydrological and sediment connectivity under climate change in a tropical catchment of Mexico.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {848}, number = {}, pages = {157731}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157731}, pmid = {35917965}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Floods ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Hydrology ; Mexico ; }, abstract = {Hydrological and erosion dynamics are prone to change due to natural factors, human activities, or climate change. These changes are mainly related to modifications of land use and cover and can be assessed through the concept of connectivity, which analyzes how the spatial distribution of the elements facilitates runoff and sediment transport. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in hydrological and sediment connectivity over 42 years and projected under a climate change scenario in the tropical Santa Cruz catchment in Aquismón, S.L.P., Mexico. The index of connectivity (IC) was computed using SedInConnect version 2.3 and the ArcSWAT model to estimate runoff. Hydrological connectivity and runoff were projected for 2027 using the MPI ECHAM 5 in the A2 climate change scenario. The results indicated that spatio-temporal changes in land use/cover, in conjunction with geomorphological features and expected climate change, would modify hydrological and sediment connectivity, especially in flat areas, where conversion of natural vegetation to cropland was steadily increasing over the years. Under future conditions, runoff and sediment transport are likely to increase, which will impact soil erosion and vulnerability to flooding but will not necessarily be negative. The study shows how spatial-temporal integration of runoff, sediments, landforms, land use cover and change, and connectivity can improve our understanding of catchment dynamics and the importance of analyses that characterize their evolution. The results can subsequently be applied and replicated in other catchments for management and restoration purposes.}, }
@article {pmid35916134, year = {2022}, author = {McWhorter, JK and Halloran, PR and Roff, G and Skirving, WJ and Mumby, PJ}, title = {Climate refugia on the Great Barrier Reef fail when global warming exceeds 3°C.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {19}, pages = {5768-5780}, pmid = {35916134}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Global Warming ; *Refugium ; }, abstract = {Increases in the magnitude, frequency, and duration of warm seawater temperatures are causing mass coral mortality events across the globe. Although, even during the most extensive bleaching events, some reefs escape exposure to severe stress, constituting potential refugia. Here, we identify present-day climate refugia on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and project their persistence into the future. To do this, we apply semi-dynamic downscaling to an ensemble of climate projections released for the IPCC's recent sixth Assessment Report. We find that GBR locations experiencing the least thermal stress over the past 20 years have done so because of their oceanographic circumstance, which implies that longer-term persistence of climate refugia is feasible. Specifically, tidal and wind mixing of warm water away from the sea surface appears to provide relief from warming. However, on average this relative advantage only persists until global warming exceeds ~3°C.}, }
@article {pmid35915659, year = {2022}, author = {Stefkovics, &#xc1; and Hortay, O}, title = {Fear of COVID-19 reinforces climate change beliefs. Evidence from 28 European countries.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; policy}, volume = {136}, number = {}, pages = {717-725}, pmid = {35915659}, issn = {1462-9011}, abstract = {The long-term nature of climate policy measures requires stable social legitimacy, which other types of crises may jeopardize. This article examines the impact of the COVID-19 fear on climate change beliefs based on an autumn 2020 population survey in the Member States of the European Union and the United Kingdom. The results show that deep COVID-19 concerns increase climate change concerns, awareness, and perceived negative impacts of climate change. These effects are more robust among the lower educated Europeans. On the country level, strict governmental measures are also linked to deep climate change concerns. In contrast to the experience following the 2008 recession, the findings show that a secondary crisis can positively impact climate attitudes, which is a promising result for policy actions.}, }
@article {pmid35915569, year = {2022}, author = {Beltrán-Sanz, N and Raggio, J and Gonzalez, S and Dal Grande, F and Prost, S and Green, A and Pintado, A and Sancho, LG}, title = {Corrigendum to "Climate change leads to higher NPP at the end of the century in the Antarctic Tundra: Response patterns through the lens of lichens" [Sci. Total Environ. 835 (2022) 155495 (20 August)].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {845}, number = {}, pages = {157380}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157380}, pmid = {35915569}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid35915126, year = {2022}, author = {Wani, IA and Khan, S and Verma, S and Al-Misned, FA and Shafik, HM and El-Serehy, HA}, title = {Predicting habitat suitability and niche dynamics of Dactylorhiza hatagirea and Rheum webbianum in the Himalaya under projected climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {13205}, pmid = {35915126}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; *Orchidaceae ; Plants ; *Rheum ; }, abstract = {In the era of anthropocene, global warming tends to alter the distribution range of the plant species. Highly fragile to such changes are the species that are endemic, inhabit higher elevations and show narrow distribution ranges. Predicting and plotting the appropriate suitable habitats and keeping knowledge of how climate change will affect future distribution become imperative for designing effective conservation strategies. In the current study we have used BIOMOD ensemble forecasting to study the current and predict the future potential distribution of Dactylorhiza hatagirea and Rheum webbianum and describe their niche dynamics in Himalayan biodiversity hotspots under climate change scenarios using ecospat R package. Results reveal sufficient internal evaluation metrics with area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) values greater than 0.8 i.e. 0.93 and 0.98 and 0.82 and 0.90 for D. hatageria and R. webbianum respectively, which signifies robustness of the model. Among different bioclimatic variables, bio_1, bio_3, bio_8, bio_14 and bio_15 were the most influential, showing greater impact on the potential distribution of these plant species. Range change analysis showed that both the studied species will show significant contraction of their suitable habitats under future climatic scenarios. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the year 2070, indicate that the suitable habitats could be reduced by about 51.41% and 70.57% for D. hatagirea and R. webbianum respectively. The results of the niche comparisons between the current and future climatic scenarios showed moderate level of niche overlap for all the pairs with D. hatageria showing 61% overlap for current vs. RCP4.5 2050 and R. webbianum reflects 68% overlap for current vs. RCP4.5 2050. Furthermore, the PCA analysis revealed that climatic conditions for both the species vary significantly between current and future scenarios. The similarity and equivalence test showed that the niche between present and future climate change scenarios is comparable but not identical. From the current study we concluded that the influence of climate change on the habitat distribution of these plant species in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspots can be considered very severe. Drastic reduction in overall habitat suitability poses a high risk of species extinction and thereby threatens to alter the functions and services of these fragile ecosystems. Present results can be used by conservationists for mitigating the biodiversity decline and exploring undocumented populations on one hand and by policymakers in implementing the policy of conservation of species by launching species recovery programmes in future on the other. The outcomes of this study can contribute substantially to understand the consequences of climate change in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspots.}, }
@article {pmid35914598, year = {2022}, author = {Dawson, LP and Andrew, E and Nehme, Z and Bloom, J and Cox, S and Anderson, D and Stephenson, M and Lefkovits, J and Taylor, AJ and Kaye, D and Guo, Y and Smith, K and Stub, D}, title = {Temperature-related chest pain presentations and future projections with climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {848}, number = {}, pages = {157716}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157716}, pmid = {35914598}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Chest Pain/epidemiology/etiology ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; Female ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has led to increased interest in studying adverse health effects relating to ambient temperatures. It is unclear whether incident chest pain is associated with non-optimal temperatures and how chest pain presentation rates might be affected by climate change.<br><br>METHODS: The study included ambulance data of chest pain presentations in Melbourne, Australia from 1/1/2015 to 30/6/2019 with linkage to hospital and emergency discharge diagnosis data. A time series quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model was fitted to assess the temperature-chest pain presentation associations overall and according to age, sex, socioeconomic status, and event location subgroups, with adjustment for season, day of the week and long-term trend. Future excess chest pain presentations associated with cold and heat were projected under six general circulation models under medium and high emission scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: In 206,789 chest pain presentations, mean (SD) age was 61.2 (18.9) years and 50.3 % were female. Significant heat- and cold-related increased risk of chest pain presentations were observed for mean air temperatures above and below 20.8 &#xb0;C, respectively. Excess chest pain presentations related to heat were observed in all subgroups, but appeared to be attenuated for older patients (&#x2265;70 years), patients of higher socioeconomic status (SES), and patients developing chest pain at home. We projected increases in heat-related chest pain presentations with climate change under both medium- and high-emission scenarios, which are offset by decreases in chest pain presentations related to cold temperatures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Heat- and cold- exposure appear to increase the risk of chest pain presentations, especially among younger patients and patients of lower SES. This will have important implications with climate change modelling of chest pain, in particular highlighting the importance of risk mitigation strategies to minimise adverse health impacts on hotter days.}, }
@article {pmid35914185, year = {2022}, author = {Kemp, L and Xu, C and Depledge, J and Ebi, KL and Gibbins, G and Kohler, TA and Rockström, J and Scheffer, M and Schellnhuber, HJ and Steffen, W and Lenton, TM}, title = {Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {34}, pages = {e2108146119}, pmid = {35914185}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disaster Planning ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Risk Management ; }, abstract = {Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence-together with other global dangers-be usefully synthesized into an "integrated catastrophe assessment"? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35911196, year = {2022}, author = {Farquharson, JI and Amelung, F}, title = {Volcanic hazard exacerbated by future global warming-driven increase in heavy rainfall.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {220275}, pmid = {35911196}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Heavy rainfall drives a range of eruptive and non-eruptive volcanic hazards. Over the Holocene, the incidence of many such hazards has increased due to rapid climate change. Here, we show that extreme heavy rainfall is projected to increase with continued global warming throughout the twenty-first century in most subaerial volcanic regions, increasing the potential for rainfall-induced volcanic hazards. This result is based on a comparative analysis of nine general circulation models, and is prevalent across a wide range of spatial scales, from countries and volcanic arcs down to individual volcanic systems. Our results suggest that if global warming continues unchecked, the incidence of primary and secondary rainfall-related volcanic activity-such as dome explosions or flank collapse-will increase at more than 700 volcanoes around the globe. Improved coupling between scientific observations-in particular, of local and regional precipitation-and policy decisions may go some way towards mitigating the increased risk throughout the next 80 years.}, }
@article {pmid35910640, year = {2022}, author = {Jiang, X and Liu, C and Hu, Y and Shao, K and Tang, X and Gao, G and Qin, B}, title = {Salinity-Linked Denitrification Potential in Endorheic Lake Bosten (China) and Its Sensitivity to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {922546}, pmid = {35910640}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Endorheic lakes in arid regions of Northwest China are generally vulnerable and sensitive to accelerated climate change and extensive human activities. Therefore, a better understanding of the self-purification capacity of ecosystems, such as denitrification, is necessary to effectively protect these water resources. In the present study, we measured unamended and amended denitrification rates of Lake Bosten by adding the ambient and extra nitrate isotopes in slurry incubations. Meanwhile, we investigated the abundances and community structure of nitrous oxide-reducing microorganisms using qPCR and high-throughput sequencing, respectively, in the surface sediments of Lake Bosten to study denitrification potential in endorheic lakes of arid regions as well as the response of those denitrifiers to climatically induced changes in lake environments. Amended denitrification rates increased by one order of magnitude compared to unamended rates in Lake Bosten. The great discrepancy between unamended and amended rates was attributed to low nitrate availability, indicating that Lake Bosten is not operating at maximum capacity of denitrification. Salinity shaped the spatial heterogeneity of denitrification potential through changes in the abundances and species diversity of denitrifiers. Climate change had a positive effect on the water quality of Lake Bosten so far, through increased runoff, decreased salinity, and enhanced denitrification. But the long-term trajectories of water quality are difficult to predict alongside future glacier shrinkage and decreased snow cover.}, }
@article {pmid35909989, year = {2022}, author = {Erb, KH and Haberl, H and Le Noë, J and Tappeiner, U and Tasser, E and Gingrich, S}, title = {Changes in perspective needed to forge 'no-regret' forest-based climate change mitigation strategies.}, journal = {Global change biology. Bioenergy}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {246-257}, pmid = {35909989}, issn = {1757-1693}, abstract = {Forest-based mitigation strategies will play a pivotal role in achieving the rapid and deep net-emission reductions required to prevent catastrophic climate change. However, large disagreement prevails on how to forge forest-based mitigation strategies, in particular in regions where forests are currently growing in area and carbon density. Two opposing viewpoints prevail in the current discourse: (1) A widespread viewpoint, specifically in countries in the Global North, favours enhanced wood use, including bioenergy, for substitution of emissions-intensive products and processes. (2) Others instead focus on the biophysical, resource-efficiency and time-response advantages of forest conservation and restoration for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation, whilst often not explicitly specifying how much wood extraction can still safeguard these ecological benefits. We here argue for a new perspective in sustainable forest research that aims at forging "no-regret" forest-based climate change mitigation strategies. Based on the consideration of forest growth dynamics and the opportunity carbon cost associated with wood use, we suggest that, instead of taking (hypothetical) wood-for-fossil substitution as starting point in assessments of carbon implications of wood products and services, analyses should take the potential and desired carbon sequestration of forests as starting point and quantify sustainable yield potentials compatible with those carbon sequestration potentials. Such an approach explicitly addresses the possible benefits provided by forests as carbon sinks, brings research on the permanence and vulnerability of C-stocks in forests, of substitution effects, as well as explorations of demand-side strategies to the forefront of research and, in particular, aligns better with the urgency to find viable climate solutions.}, }
@article {pmid35909941, year = {2022}, author = {Michelangeli, F and Di Rita, F and Celant, A and Tisnérat-Laborde, N and Lirer, F and Magri, D}, title = {Three Millennia of Vegetation, Land-Use, and Climate Change in SE Sicily.}, journal = {Forests}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {102}, pmid = {35909941}, issn = {1999-4907}, abstract = {This study presents the first Late Holocene marine pollen record (core ND2) from SE Sicily. It encompasses the last 3000 years and is one of the most detailed records of the south-central Mediterranean region in terms of time resolution. The combined approach of marine palynology and historical ecology, supported by independent palaeoclimate proxies, provides an integrated regional reconstruction of past vegetational dynamics in relation to rapid climatic fluctuations, historical socio-economic processes, and past land-use practices, offering new insights into the vegetation history of SE Sicily. Short-term variations of sparse tree cover in persistently open landscapes reflect rapid hydroclimatic changes and historical land-use practices. Four main phases of forest reduction are found in relation to the 2.8 ka BP event, including the Late Antique Little Ice Age, the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and the Little Ice Age, respectively. Forest recovery is recorded during the Hellenistic and Roman Republican Periods, the Early Middle Ages, and the last century. Agricultural and silvicultural practices, as well as stock-breeding activities, had a primary role in shaping the current vegetational landscape of SE Sicily.}, }
@article {pmid35906481, year = {2022}, author = {Fossas-Tenas, A and Ibelings, BW and Kasparian, J and Krishnakumar, J and Laurent-Lucchetti, J}, title = {Paradoxical effects of altruism on efforts to mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {13072}, pmid = {35906481}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Altruism ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Social Welfare ; }, abstract = {It is common wisdom that altruism is a crucial element in addressing climate change and other public good issues. If individuals care about the welfare of others (including future generations) they can be expected to unilaterally adapt their behaviour to preserve the common good thus enhancing the wellbeing of all. We introduce a network game model featuring both altruism and a public good (e.g. climate) whose degradation affects all players. As expected, in an idealistic fully connected society where all players care about each other, increasing altruism results in a better protection of the public good. However, in more realistic networks where people are not all related to each other, we highlight an intrinsic trade-off between the effects of altruism on reducing inequality and the preservation of a global public good: the consumption redistribution generated by a higher altruism is partly achieved by lowering income transfers towards protection of the public good. Therefore, it increases overall consumption and is thereby detrimental to the public good. These results suggest that altruism, although good from a welfarist point of view, is not in itself sufficient to simultaneously solve public good and inequality issues.}, }
@article {pmid35903229, year = {2022}, author = {Farooq, MS and Uzair, M and Raza, A and Habib, M and Xu, Y and Yousuf, M and Yang, SH and Ramzan Khan, M}, title = {Uncovering the Research Gaps to Alleviate the Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security: A Review.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {927535}, pmid = {35903229}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climatic variability has been acquiring an extensive consideration due to its widespread ability to impact food production and livelihoods. Climate change has the potential to intersperse global approaches in alleviating hunger and undernutrition. It is hypothesized that climate shifts bring substantial negative impacts on food production systems, thereby intimidating food security. Vast developments have been made addressing the global climate change, undernourishment, and hunger for the last few decades, partly due to the increase in food productivity through augmented agricultural managements. However, the growing population has increased the demand for food, putting pressure on food systems. Moreover, the potential climate change impacts are still unclear more obviously at the regional scales. Climate change is expected to boost food insecurity challenges in areas already vulnerable to climate change. Human-induced climate change is expected to impact food quality, quantity, and potentiality to dispense it equitably. Global capabilities to ascertain the food security and nutritional reasonableness facing expeditious shifts in biophysical conditions are likely to be the main factors determining the level of global disease incidence. It can be apprehended that all food security components (mainly food access and utilization) likely be under indirect effect via pledged impacts on ménage, incomes, and damages to health. The corroboration supports the dire need for huge focused investments in mitigation and adaptation measures to have sustainable, climate-smart, eco-friendly, and climate stress resilient food production systems. In this paper, we discussed the foremost pathways of how climate change impacts our food production systems as well as the social, and economic factors that in the mastery of unbiased food distribution. Likewise, we analyze the research gaps and biases about climate change and food security. Climate change is often responsible for food insecurity issues, not focusing on the fact that food production systems have magnified the climate change process. Provided the critical threats to food security, the focus needs to be shifted to an implementation oriented-agenda to potentially cope with current challenges. Therefore, this review seeks to have a more unprejudiced view and thus interpret the fusion association between climate change and food security by imperatively scrutinizing all factors.}, }
@article {pmid35902771, year = {2022}, author = {Sun, X and Sun, Y and Ma, L and Liu, Z and Wang, Q and Wang, D and Zhang, C and Yu, H and Xu, M and Ding, J and Siemann, E}, title = {Multidecadal, continent-level analysis indicates agricultural practices impact wheat aphid loads more than climate change.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {761}, pmid = {35902771}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Aphids ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Temperature has a large influence on insect abundances, thus under climate change, identifying major drivers affecting pest insect populations is critical to world food security and agricultural ecosystem health. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis with data obtained from 120 studies across China and Europe from 1970 to 2017 to reveal how climate and agricultural practices affect populations of wheat aphids. Here we showed that aphid loads on wheat had distinct patterns between these two regions, with a significant increase in China but a decrease in Europe over this time period. Although temperature increased over this period in both regions, we found no evidence showing climate warming affected aphid loads. Rather, differences in pesticide use, fertilization, land use, and natural enemies between China and Europe may be key factors accounting for differences in aphid pest populations. These long-term data suggest that agricultural practices impact wheat aphid loads more than climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid35902204, year = {2022}, author = {Pitchforth, E and Smith, E and Taylor, J and Davies, S and Ali, GC and d'Angelo, C}, title = {Global action on antimicrobial resistance: lessons from the history of climate change and tobacco control policy.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {35902204}, issn = {2059-7908}, mesh = {Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use ; *Climate Change ; Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; Humans ; Public Policy ; *Nicotiana ; }, }
@article {pmid35900846, year = {2022}, author = {Ma, XY and Xu, H and Cao, ZY and Shu, L and Zhu, RL}, title = {Will climate change cause the global peatland to expand or contract? Evidence from the habitat shift pattern of Sphagnum mosses.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {21}, pages = {6419-6432}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16354}, pmid = {35900846}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Calcium Carbonate ; Carbon ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Soil ; *Sphagnopsida/physiology ; }, abstract = {Peatlands play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Sphagnum mosses (peat mosses) are considered to be the peatland ecosystem engineers and contribute to the carbon accumulation in the peatland ecosystems. As cold-adapted species, the dominance of Sphagnum mosses in peatlands will be threatened by climate warming. The response of Sphagnum mosses to climate change is closely related to the future trajectory of carbon fluxes in peatlands. However, the impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of Sphagnum mosses on a global scale is poorly understood. To predict the potential impact of climate change on the global distribution of Sphagnum mosses, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential geographic distribution of six Sphagnum species that dominate peatlands in the future (2050 and 2070) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, and topsoil calcium carbonate are the main factors affecting the habitat availability of Sphagnum mosses. As the climate warms, Sphagnum mosses tend to migrate northward. The suitable habitat and abundance of Sphagnum mosses increase extensively in the high-latitude boreal peatland (north of 50°N) and decrease on a large scale beyond the high-latitude boreal peatland. The southern edge of boreal peatlands would experience the greatest decline in the suitable habitat and richness of Sphagnum mosses with the temperature rising and would be a risk area for the transition from carbon sink to carbon source. The spatial-temporal pattern changes of Sphagnum mosses simulated in this study provide a reference for the development of management and conservation strategies for Sphagnum bogs.}, }
@article {pmid35900701, year = {2022}, author = {Das, N and Sagar, A and Bhattacharjee, R and Agnihotri, AK and Ohri, A and Gaur, S}, title = {Time series forecasting of temperature and turbidity due to global warming in river Ganga at and around Varanasi, India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {9}, pages = {617}, pmid = {35900701}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; Global Warming ; India ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The fluctuation in the river ecosystem network due to climate change-induced global warming affects aquatic organisms, water quality, and other ecological processes. Assessment of climate change-induced global warming impacts on regional hydrological processes is vital for effective water resource management and planning. The global warming effect on river water quality has been analyzed in this work. The river Ganga stretch near the Varanasi region has been chosen as the study area for this analysis. The air temperature has been predicted using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and the Prophet model. The Prophet model has shown better accuracy with a root mean square percent error (RMSPE) value of 3.2% compared to the SARIMA model, which has an RMPSE value of 7.54%. The river temperature, turbidity, and nighttime radiance values have been predicted for the years 2022 and 2025 using the long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm. The anthropogenic effect on the river has been evaluated by using the nighttime radiance imageries. The predicted average river temperature shows an increment of 0.58 °C and 0.63 °C for the city and non-city river stretches, respectively, in 2025 compared to 2022. Similarly, the river turbidity shows an increment of 1.21 nephelometric turbidity units (NTU) and 1.17 NTU for the city and non-city stretch, respectively, in 2025 compared to 2022. For future predicted years, the nighttime radiance values for the region situated near the city river stretch show a significant rise compared to the region that lies nearby the non-city river stretch.}, }
@article {pmid35899796, year = {2022}, author = {Eigenbrode, SD and Adhikari, S and Kistner-Thomas, E and Neven, L}, title = {Introduction to the Collection: Climate Change, Insect Pests, and Beneficial Arthropods in Production Systems.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {115}, number = {5}, pages = {1315-1319}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toac107}, pmid = {35899796}, issn = {1938-291X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Arthropods/physiology ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Insecta/physiology ; Pollination ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter pressure from insect pests and the abundance and effectiveness of insect pollinators across diverse agriculture and forestry systems. In response to warming, insects are undergoing or are projected to undergo shifts in their geographic ranges, voltinism, abundance, and phenology. Drivers include direct effects on the focal insects and indirect effects mediated by their interactions with species at higher or lower trophic levels. These climate-driven effects are complex and variable, sometimes increasing pest pressure or reducing pollination and sometimes with opposite effects depending on climatic baseline conditions and the interplay of these drivers. This special collection includes several papers illustrative of these biological effects on pests and pollinators. In addition, in response to or anticipating climate change, producers are modifying production systems by introducing more or different crops into rotations or as cover crops or intercrops or changing crop varieties, with potentially substantial effects on associated insect communities, an aspect of climate change that is relatively understudied. This collection includes several papers illustrating these indirect production system-level effects. Together, biological and management-related effects on insects comprise the necessary scope for anticipating and responding to the effects of climate change on insects in agriculture and forest systems.}, }
@article {pmid35899628, year = {2022}, author = {Sunday, JM and Howard, E and Siedlecki, S and Pilcher, DJ and Deutsch, C and MacCready, P and Newton, J and Klinger, T}, title = {Biological sensitivities to high-resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {19}, pages = {5726-5740}, pmid = {35899628}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; California ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/physiology ; Food Chain ; Oxygen ; }, abstract = {The California Current Marine Ecosystem is a highly productive system that exhibits strong natural variability and vulnerability to anthropogenic climate trends. Relating projections of ocean change to biological sensitivities requires detailed synthesis of experimental results. Here, we combine measured biological sensitivities with high-resolution climate projections of key variables (temperature, oxygen, and pCO2) to identify the direction, magnitude, and spatial distribution of organism-scale vulnerabilities to multiple axes of projected ocean change. Among 12 selected species of cultural and economic importance, we find that all are sensitive to projected changes in ocean conditions through responses that affect individual performance or population processes. Response indices were largest in the northern region and inner shelf. While performance traits generally increased with projected changes, fitness traits generally decreased, indicating that concurrent stresses can lead to fitness loss. For two species, combining sensitivities to temperature and oxygen changes through the Metabolic Index shows how aerobic habitat availability could be compressed under future conditions. Our results suggest substantial and specific ecological susceptibility in the next 80 years, including potential regional loss of canopy-forming kelp, changes in nearshore food webs caused by declining rates of survival among red urchins, Dungeness crab, and razor clams, and loss of aerobic habitat for anchovy and pink shrimp. We also highlight fillable gaps in knowledge, including specific physiological responses to stressors, variation in responses across life stages, and responses to multistressor combinations. These findings strengthen the case for filling information gaps with experiments focused on fitness-related responses and those that can be used to parameterize integrative physiological models, and suggest that the CCME is susceptible to substantial changes to ecosystem structure and function within this century.}, }
@article {pmid35899554, year = {2022}, author = {Kumar, AV and Zimova, M and Martin, TE and Mills, LS}, title = {Contrasting seasonal effects of climate change influence density in a cold-adapted species.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {21}, pages = {6228-6238}, pmid = {35899554}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; *Hares ; Seasons ; Snow ; }, abstract = {Many ecological processes are profoundly influenced by abiotic factors, such as temperature and snow. However, despite strong evidence linking shifts in these ecological processes to corresponding shifts in abiotic factors driven by climate change, the mechanisms connecting population size to season-specific climate drivers are little understood. Using a 21-year dataset and a Bayesian state space model, we identified biologically informed seasonal climate covariates that influenced densities of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), a cold-adapted boreal herbivore. We found that snow and temperature had strong but conflicting season-dependent effects. Reduced snow duration in spring and fall and warmer summers were associated with lowered hare density, whereas warmer winters were associated with increased density. When modeled simultaneously and under two climate change scenarios, the negative effects of reduced fall and spring snow duration and warmer summers overwhelm the positive effect of warmer winters, producing projected population declines. Ultimately, the contrasting population-level impacts of climate change across seasons emphasize the critical need to examine the entire annual climate cycle to understand potential long-term population consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35897512, year = {2022}, author = {Schwaab, L and Gebhardt, N and Friederich, HC and Nikendei, C}, title = {Climate Change Related Depression, Anxiety and Stress Symptoms Perceived by Medical Students.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {35897512}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Anxiety/epidemiology/psychology ; Anxiety Disorders ; Climate Change ; Depression/epidemiology/psychology ; Humans ; Stress, Psychological/epidemiology/psychology ; *Students, Medical/psychology ; }, abstract = {Climate change has drastic consequences on human physical and mental health. However, research on the psychological effects of climate change awareness is still inconclusive. To examine the mental burden posed by climate change awareness and potential resilience factors, n = 203 medical students were surveyed about their awareness of the implications of climate change. Furthermore, well-established mental health questionnaires (PHQ-9, GAD-7, PTSS-10, PSQ-20) were presented twice, in their original form and in a modified version to specifically ask about the respective psychological burden regarding climate change. For identification of potential resilience factors, measures for attachment style (RQ), structural abilities (OPD-SF), and sense of coherence (SOC-13) were used. The results of our study suggest that medical students in Germany have an increased risk to suffer from mental health problems and predominantly experience significant perceived stress in regard to climate change. However, the reported stress does not yet translate into depressive, anxious, or traumatic symptoms. Climate-related perceived stress correlates negatively with potential resilience factors preventing the development of mental disorders such as attachment style, structural abilities, and sense of coherence.}, }
@article {pmid35897490, year = {2022}, author = {Khanal, S and Ramadani, L and Boeckmann, M}, title = {Health Equity in Climate Change Policies and Public Health Policies Related to Climate Change: Protocol for a Systematic Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {35897490}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Policy Making ; Review Literature as Topic ; Social Determinants of Health ; }, abstract = {The relationship between risks to health equity and climate change is well established, and various international organizations and literature has called for intersectoral action for tackling these issues. While there is a growing recognition of the importance of equity-focused responses to climate change, if and how health equity measures are incorporated into climate-change-related policy decisions has not yet been adequately explored. There are numerous approaches and frameworks for conducting policy analysis, and for understanding equity in the context of climate change and public health separately; however, a comprehensive framework for exploring the complexity of these interacting factors is hard to find. This review aims to systematically identify policy analysis frameworks and studies focusing on health equity in climate change related policies. Five electronic databases will be searched for peer-reviewed articles in English and from 2000. Articles will be subjected to systematic retrieval and quality assessment, and thematic analysis will be used for data analysis. The study findings will provide insight into different existing policy-analysis frameworks and policy-analysis approaches to understand health equity considerations in climate change policies and in health policies related to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35897290, year = {2022}, author = {Su, Q and Chang, HS and Pai, SE}, title = {A Comparative Study of the Resilience of Urban and Rural Areas under Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {35897290}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Greenland ; Humans ; *Rural Population ; Urban Population ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change in recent years has caused considerable risks to both urban and rural systems. How to mitigate the damage caused by extreme weather events has attracted much attention from countries in recent years. However, most of the previous studies on resilience focused on either urban areas or rural areas, and failed to clearly identify the difference between urban and rural resilience. In fact, the exploration of the difference between the resilience characteristics of cities and villages under climate change can help to improve the planning strategy and the allocation of resources. In this study, the indicators of resilience were firstly built through a literature review, and then a Principal Component Analysis was conducted to construct an evaluation system involving indicators such as "greenland resilience", "community age structure resilience", "traditional knowledge resilience", "infrastructure resilience" and "residents economic independence resilience". Then the analysis of Local Indicators of Spatial Association showed some resilience abilities are concentrated in either urban or rural. Binary logistic regression was performed, and the results showed urban areas have more prominent abilities in infrastructure resilience (the coefficient value is 1.339), community age structure resilience (0.694), and greenland resilience (0.3), while rural areas are more prominent in terms of the residents economic independence resilience (-0.398) and traditional knowledge resilience (-0.422). It can be seen that urban areas rely more on the resilience of the socio-economic structure, while rural areas are more dependent on their own knowledge and economic independence. This result can be used as a reference for developing strategies to improve urban and rural resilience.}, }
@article {pmid35895710, year = {2022}, author = {Khan, F and Ali, S and Mayer, C and Ullah, H and Muhammad, S}, title = {Climate change and spatio-temporal trend analysis of climate extremes in the homogeneous climatic zones of Pakistan during 1962-2019.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {7}, pages = {e0271626}, pmid = {35895710}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ice Cover ; Pakistan ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, extreme rainfall can lead to harvest failures, flooding and consequently threaten the food security worldwide. Improving our understanding about climate extremes can mitigate the worst impacts of climate change and extremes. The objective here is to investigate the changes in climate and climate extremes by considering two time slices (i.e., 1962-1990 and 1991-2019) in all climate zones of Pakistan by utilizing observed data from 54 meteorological stations. Different statistical methods and techniques were applied on observed station data to assess changes in temperature, precipitation and spatio-temporal trends of climatic extremes over Pakistan from 1962 to 2019. The Mann-Kendal test demonstrated increasing precipitation (DJF) and decreasing maximum and minimum temperatures (JJA) at the meteorological stations located in the Karakoram region during 1962-1990. The decadal analysis, on the other hand, showed a decrease in precipitation during 1991-2019 and an increase in temperature (maximum and minimum) during 2010-2019, which is consistent with the recently observed slight mass loss of glaciers related to the Karakoram Anomaly. These changes are highly significant at 5% level of significance at most of the stations. In case of temperature extremes, summer days (SU25) increased except in zone 4, TX10p (cold days) decreased across the country during 1962-1990, except for zones 1 and 2. TX90p (warm days) increased between 1991-2019, with the exception of zone 5, and decreased during 1962-1990, with the exception of zones 2 and 5. The spatio-temporal trend of consecutive dry days (CDD) indicated a rising tendency from 1991 to 2019, with the exception of zone 4, which showed a decreasing trend. PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation), R10 (number of heavy precipitation days), R20 (number of very heavy precipitation days), and R25mm (very heavy precipitation days) increased (decreased) considerably in the North Pakistan during 1962-1990 (1991-2019). The findings of this study can help to address some of the sustainable development goals related climate action, hunger and environment. In addition, the findings can help in developing sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies against climate change and extremes. As the climate and extremes conditions are not the uniform in all climate zone, therefore, it is suggested to the formers and agriculture department to harvest crops resilient to the climatic condition of each zone. Temperature has increasing trend in the northern Pakistan, therefore, the concerned stakeholders need to make rational plans for higher river flow/flood situation due to snow and glacier melt.}, }
@article {pmid35893578, year = {2023}, author = {Alava, JJ and McMullen, K and Jones, J and Barragán-Paladines, MJ and Hobbs, C and Tirapé, A and Calle, P and Alarcón, D and Muñoz-Pérez, JP and Muñoz-Abril, L and Townsend, KA and Denkinger, J and Uyaguari, M and Domínguez, GA and Espinoza, E and Reyes, H and Piedrahita, P and Fair, P and Galloway, T and Grove, JS and Lewis, C and Schofield, J}, title = {Multiple anthropogenic stressors in the Galápagos Islands' complex social-ecological system: Interactions of marine pollution, fishing pressure, and climate change with management recommendations.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {19}, number = {4}, pages = {870-895}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4661}, pmid = {35893578}, issn = {1551-3793}, support = {Nippon Foundation-Ocean Litter Project//Nippon Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Hunting ; Climate Change ; Ecuador ; Anthropogenic Effects ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Pollutants ; }, abstract = {For decades, multiple anthropogenic stressors have threatened the Galápagos Islands. Widespread marine pollution such as oil spills, persistent organic pollutants, metals, and ocean plastic pollution has been linked to concerning changes in the ecophysiology and health of Galápagos species. Simultaneously, illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing are reshaping the composition and structure of endemic and native Galápagos pelagic communities. In this novel review, we discuss the impact of anthropogenic pollutants and their associated ecotoxicological implications for Galápagos species in the face of climate change stressors. We emphasize the importance of considering fishing pressure and marine pollution, in combination with climate-change impacts, when assessing the evolutionary fitness of species inhabiting the Galápagos. For example, the survival of endemic marine iguanas has been negatively affected by organic hydrocarbons introduced via oil spills, and endangered Galápagos sea lions exhibit detectable concentrations of DDT, triggering potential feminization effects and compromising the species' survival. During periods of ocean warming (El Niño events) when endemic species undergo nutritional stress, climate change may increase the vulnerability of these species to the impacts of pollutants, resulting in the species reaching its population tipping point. Marine plastics are emerging as a deleterious and widespread threat to endemic species. The Galápagos is treasured for its historical significance and its unparalleled living laboratory and display of evolutionary processes; however, this unique and iconic paradise will remain in jeopardy until multidisciplinary and comprehensive preventative management plans are put in place to mitigate and eliminate the effects of anthropogenic stressors facing the islands today. We present a critical analysis and synthesis of anthropogenic stressors with some progress from local and international institutional efforts and call to action more precautionary measures along with new management philosophies focused on understanding the processes of change through research to champion the conservation of the Galápagos. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:870-895. © 2022 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid35890508, year = {2022}, author = {Nzei, JM and Mwanzia, VM and Ngarega, BK and Musili, PM and Wang, QF and Chen, JM and Li, ZZ}, title = {Ecological Niche Modeling of Water Lily (Nymphaea L.) Species in Australia under Climate Change to Ascertain Habitat Suitability for Conservation Measures.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {35890508}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {32070231//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a global temperature rise of 4.3 ± 0.7 °C by 2100 and an extinction of 8.5% in one out of every six species. Australia's aquatic ecosystem is no exception; habitat loss, fragmentation, and loss of biodiversity are being experienced. As the center for Nymphaea species distribution, it presents the culturally, ecologically, and scientifically important genus as the best candidate for habitat suitability assessment in climate change, whose habitat suitability is presumed to decline. The models were run according to the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, using one general circulation model (GCM). Projections were made for the current, past, and future in medium (4.5) and high (8.5) representative concentration pathways. Significantly, bio2 and bio15 were highly preferred among the species. Less distribution was noted in West Australia compared to the north, east, and south of the continent, while north of the continent in Western Australia, Northern Territory, and Queensland indicate more habitat contractions compared to the east and southeast of Queensland and New South Wales, although it receives high precipitation. Generally, the species respond variably to both temperature and precipitation variables which is a key species response factor for planners and decision makers in species habitat and biodiversity conservation.}, }
@article {pmid35890473, year = {2022}, author = {Eastwood, RJ and Tambam, BB and Aboagye, LM and Akparov, ZI and Aladele, SE and Allen, R and Amri, A and Anglin, NL and Araya, R and Arrieta-Espinoza, G and Asgerov, A and Awang, K and Awas, T and Barata, AM and Boateng, SK and Magos Brehm, J and Breidy, J and Breman, E and Brenes Angulo, A and Burle, ML and Castañeda-Álvarez, NP and Casimiro, P and Chaves, NF and Clemente, AS and Cockel, CP and Davey, A and De la Rosa, L and Debouck, DG and Dempewolf, H and Dokmak, H and Ellis, D and Faruk, A and Freitas, C and Galstyan, S and García, RM and Ghimire, KH and Guarino, L and Harker, R and Hope, R and Humphries, AW and Jamora, N and Jatoi, SA and Khutsishvili, M and Kikodze, D and Kyratzis, AC and León-Lobos, P and Liu, U and Mainali, RP and Mammadov, AT and Manrique-Carpintero, NC and Manzella, D and Mat Ali, MS and Medeiros, MB and Mérida Guzmán, MA and Mikatadze-Pantsulaia, T and Mohamed, ETI and Monteros-Altamirano, &#xc1; and Morales, A and Müller, JV and Mulumba, JW and Nersesyan, A and Nóbrega, H and Nyamongo, DO and Obreza, M and Okere, AU and Orsenigo, S and Ortega-Klose, F and Papikyan, A and Pearce, TR and Pinheiro de Carvalho, MAA and Prohens, J and Rossi, G and Salas, A and Singh Shrestha, D and Siddiqui, SU and Smith, PP and Sotomayor, DA and Tacán, M and Tapia, C and Toledo, &#xc1; and Toll, J and Vu, DT and Vu, TD and Way, MJ and Yazbek, M and Zorrilla, C and Kilian, B}, title = {Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change: A Synopsis of Coordinated National Crop Wild Relative Seed Collecting Programs across Five Continents.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {35890473}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {The Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change Project set out to improve the diversity, quantity, and accessibility of germplasm collections of crop wild relatives (CWR). Between 2013 and 2018, partners in 25 countries, heirs to the globetrotting legacy of Nikolai Vavilov, undertook seed collecting expeditions targeting CWR of 28 crops of global significance for agriculture. Here, we describe the implementation of the 25 national collecting programs and present the key results. A total of 4587 unique seed samples from at least 355 CWR taxa were collected, conserved ex situ, safety duplicated in national and international genebanks, and made available through the Multilateral System (MLS) of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (Plant Treaty). Collections of CWR were made for all 28 targeted crops. Potato and eggplant were the most collected genepools, although the greatest number of primary genepool collections were made for rice. Overall, alfalfa, Bambara groundnut, grass pea and wheat were the genepools for which targets were best achieved. Several of the newly collected samples have already been used in pre-breeding programs to adapt crops to future challenges.}, }
@article {pmid35886812, year = {2022}, author = {Zhao, J and Song, C and Ma, L and Yan, X and Shi, J and Hao, C}, title = {The Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in China.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {35886812}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {20210302123387//Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi/ ; 2020xshf11//Research Grant of Shanxi Agricultural University/ ; 2021Y314//Postgraduate Education Innovation Project of Shanxi/ ; }, abstract = {The Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is a notorious stored-grain pest that can be found in most parts of China. The corpses, excretions, and other secretions of P. interpunctella larvae cause serious grain pollution, seriously affecting the nutritional and economic value of stored grain in China. To elucidate the potential distribution of P. interpunctella in China, we used the CLIMEX 4.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1960-1990) and estimated future climate data (2030, 2050, and 2070). Under the historical climate situation, P. interpunctella was distributed in most areas of China, and its highly favorable habitats account for 48.14% of its total potential distribution. Because of temperature change in the future climate, suitable habitats will increase in the eastern part of Qinghai and will decrease in the mid-eastern, northeastern, and southeastern parts of China. Under these scenarios, the area of this pest's highly favorable habitat will be reduced by 1.24 million km[2], and its proportion will decrease to about 28.48%. These predicted outcomes will help to distinguish the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. interpunctella, thereby providing important information to design early forecasting and strategies to prevent pest harm to stored grain.}, }
@article {pmid35886646, year = {2022}, author = {Khamidov, M and Ishchanov, J and Hamidov, A and Donmez, C and Djumaboev, K}, title = {Assessment of Soil Salinity Changes under the Climate Change in the Khorezm Region, Uzbekistan.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {35886646}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Salinity ; *Soil ; Uzbekistan ; }, abstract = {Soil salinity negatively affects plant growth and leads to soil degradation. Saline lands result in low agricultural productivity, affecting the well-being of farmers and the economic situation in the region. The prediction of soil salinization dynamics plays a crucial role in sustainable development of agricultural regions, in preserving the ecosystems, and in improving irrigation management practices. Accurate information through monitoring and evaluating the changes in soil salinity is essential for the development of strategies for agriculture productivity and efficient soil management. As part of an ex-ante analysis, we presented a comprehensive statistical framework for predicting soil salinity dynamics using the Homogeneity test and linear regression model. The framework was operationalized in the context of the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan, which suffers from high levels of soil salinity. The soil salinity trends and levels were projected under the impact of climate change from 2021 to 2050 and 2051 to 2100. The results show that the slightly saline soils would generally decrease (from 55.4% in 2050 to 52.4% by 2100 based on the homogeneity test; from 55.9% in 2050 to 54.5% by 2100 according to the linear regression model), but moderately saline soils would increase (from 31.2% in 2050 to 32.5% by 2100 based on the homogeneity test; from 31.2% in 2050 to 32.4% by 2100 according to the linear regression model). Moreover, highly saline soils would increase (from 13.4% in 2050 to 15.1% by 2100 based on the homogeneity test; from 12.9% in 2050 to 13.1% by 2100 according to the linear regression model). The results of this study provide an understanding that soil salinity depends on climate change and help the government to better plan future management strategies for the region.}, }
@article {pmid35886164, year = {2022}, author = {Austhof, E and Brown, HE}, title = {Global Warming's Six MTurks: A Secondary Analysis of a US-Based Online Crowdsourcing Market.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {35886164}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {6 NUE1EH001318-03-01/CC/CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Attitude ; *Crowdsourcing ; Global Warming ; Public Opinion ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Using a global warming audience segmentation tool (Six Americas Super Short Survey (SASSY)) as a case study, we consider how public health can use consumer panels and online crowdsourcing markets (OCMs) in research. Through a secondary analysis, we aim to understand how consumer panels and OCMs are similar to or different from each other on demographics and global warming beliefs through SASSY, and how they compare to US Census estimates. With this information, researchers will understand public opinion of global warming in their sample, which is useful for many climate change initiatives. Neither the consumer panel (Ipsos) or OCM sample (MTurk) matched US estimates of population demographics. Both panels achieved similar SASSY segments, showing that even with diverse sampling frames, SASSY is a useful tool for understanding global warming sentiment. Compared to Ipsos, MTurk was younger (more Millennials and Generation X), had higher educational attainment, and lower income. Both panels were majority White, but Ipsos was more diverse than the unweighted MTurk. Ipsos had more respondents from the South whereas MTurk had more respondents from the West. Across the MTurk SASSY segment, there were no significant differences for the majority of demographic characteristics except for age; younger generations were more Alarmed or Concerned, and older generations were more Doubtful and Dismissive. Researchers interested in understanding their sample's opinions of global warming should use SASSY and consider oversampling in key demographic variables if they intend to achieve a nationally representative and diverse sample.}, }
@article {pmid35883413, year = {2022}, author = {Zeng, J and Hu, J and Shi, Y and Li, Y and Guo, Z and Wang, S and Song, S}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on the Habitat of the Leopard (Panthera pardus) in the Liupanshan National Nature Reserve of China.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {12}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {35883413}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {[31301889]//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; [lzujbky-2021- 546 sp03]//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects animal populations by affecting their habitats. The leopard population has significantly decreased due to climate change and human disturbance. We studied the impact of climate change on leopard habitats using infrared camera technology in the Liupanshan National Nature Reserve of Jingyuan County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China, from July 2017 to October 2019. We captured 25 leopard distribution points over 47,460 camera working days. We used the MAXENT model to predict and analyze the habitat. We studied the leopard's suitable habitat area and distribution area under different geographical scales in the reserve. Changes in habitat area of leopards under the rcp2.6, rcp4.5, and rcp8.5 climate models in Guyuan in 2050 were also studied. We conclude that the current main factors affecting suitable leopard habitat area were vegetation cover and human disturbance. The most critical factor affecting future suitable habitat area is rainfall. Under the three climate models, the habitat area of the leopard decreased gradually because of an increase in carbon dioxide concentration. Through the prediction of the leopard's distribution area in the Liupanshan Nature Reserve, we evaluated the scientific nature of the reserve, which is helpful for the restoration and protection of the wild leopard population.}, }
@article {pmid35883230, year = {2022}, author = {Manning, JC}, title = {Movement, Space Use, and the Responses of Coral Reef Fish to Climate Change.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {62}, number = {6}, pages = {1725-1733}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icac128}, pmid = {35883230}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {Animals ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Anthozoa/physiology ; Fishes/physiology ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change and other localized stressors have led to the widespread degradation of coral reefs, characterized by losses of live coral, reduced structural complexity, and shifts in benthic community composition. These changes have altered the composition of reef fish assemblages with important consequences for ecosystem function. Animal movement and space use are critically important to population dynamics, community assembly, and species coexistence. In this perspective, I discuss how studies of reef fish movement and space use could help us to elucidate the effects of climate change on reef fish assemblages and the functions they provide. In addition to describing how reef fish space use relates to resource abundance and the intrinsic characteristics of reef fish (e.g., body size), we should begin to take a mechanistic approach to understanding movement in reef fish and to investigate the role of movement in mediating species interactions on coral reefs. Technological advances in animal tracking and biotelemetry, as well as methodological advances in the analysis of movement, will aid in this endeavor. Baseline studies of reef fish movement and space use and their effect on community assembly and species coexistence will provide us with important information for predicting how climate change will influence reef fish assemblages.}, }
@article {pmid35883005, year = {2022}, author = {Owens, B}, title = {The scientists who switched focus to fight climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {35883005}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid35882900, year = {2022}, author = {Claessens, S and Kelly, D and Sibley, CG and Chaudhuri, A and Atkinson, QD}, title = {Cooperative phenotype predicts climate change belief and pro-environmental behaviour.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {12730}, pmid = {35882900}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; *Cooperative Behavior ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Phenotype ; }, abstract = {Understanding the psychological causes of variation in climate change belief and pro-environmental behaviour remains an urgent challenge for the social sciences. The "cooperative phenotype" is a stable psychological preference for cooperating in social dilemmas that involve a tension between individual and collective interest. Since climate change poses a social dilemma on a global scale, this issue may evoke similar psychological processes as smaller social dilemmas. Here, we investigate the relationships between the cooperative phenotype and climate change belief and behaviour with a representative sample of New Zealanders (N = 897). By linking behaviour in a suite of economic games to self-reported climate attitudes, we show robust positive associations between the cooperative phenotype and both climate change belief and pro-environmental behaviour. Furthermore, our structural equation models support a motivated reasoning account in which the relationship between the cooperative phenotype and pro-environmental behaviour is mediated by climate change belief. These findings suggest that common psychological mechanisms underlie cooperation in both micro-scale social dilemmas and larger-scale social dilemmas like climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35881516, year = {2022}, author = {Koltz, AM and Gough, L and McLaren, JR}, title = {Herbivores in Arctic ecosystems: Effects of climate change and implications for carbon and nutrient cycling.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1516}, number = {1}, pages = {28-47}, pmid = {35881516}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Herbivory ; Humans ; Nutrients ; }, abstract = {Arctic terrestrial herbivores influence tundra carbon and nutrient dynamics through their consumption of resources, waste production, and habitat-modifying behaviors. The strength of these effects is likely to change spatially and temporally as climate change drives shifts in herbivore abundance, distribution, and activity timing. Here, we review how herbivores influence tundra carbon and nutrient dynamics through their consumptive and nonconsumptive effects. We also present evidence for herbivore responses to climate change and discuss how these responses may alter the spatial and temporal distribution of herbivore impacts. Several current knowledge gaps limit our understanding of the changing functional roles of herbivores; these include limited characterization of the spatial and temporal variability in herbivore impacts and of how herbivore activities influence the cycling of elements beyond carbon. We conclude by highlighting approaches that will promote better understanding of herbivore effects on tundra ecosystems, including their integration into existing biogeochemical models, new applications of remote sensing techniques, and the continued use of distributed experiments.}, }
@article {pmid35880454, year = {2022}, author = {Gorton, AJ and Benning, JW and Tiffin, P and Moeller, DA}, title = {The spatial scale of adaptation in a native annual plant and its implications for responses to climate change.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {76}, number = {12}, pages = {2916-2929}, doi = {10.1111/evo.14583}, pmid = {35880454}, issn = {1558-5646}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Spatial patterns of adaptation provide important insights into agents of selection and expected responses of populations to climate change. Robust inference into the spatial scale of adaptation can be gained through reciprocal transplant experiments that combine multiple source populations and common gardens. Here, we examine the spatial scale of local adaptation of the North American annual plant common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia, using data from four common gardens with 22 source populations sampled from across a ∼1200 km latitudinal gradient within the native range. We found evidence of local adaptation at the northernmost common garden, but maladaptation at the two southern gardens, where more southern source populations outperformed local populations. Overall, the spatial scale of adaptation was large-at the three gardens where distance between source populations and gardens explained variation in fitness, it took an average of 820 km for fitness to decline to 50% of its predicted maximum. Taken together, these results suggest that climate change has already caused maladaptation, especially across the southern portion of the range, and may result in northward range contraction over time.}, }
@article {pmid35879599, year = {2022}, author = {Wortzel, JR and Guerrero, APS and Aggarwal, R and Coverdale, J and Brenner, AM}, title = {Climate Change and the Professional Obligation to Socialize Physicians and Trainees into an Environmentally Sustainable Medical Culture.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {556-561}, pmid = {35879599}, issn = {1545-7230}, support = {R25 MH125769/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Physicians/psychology ; }, }
@article {pmid35879410, year = {2022}, author = {Xie, S and Ding, W and Ye, W and Deng, Z}, title = {Agro-pastoralists' perception of climate change and adaptation in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {12689}, pmid = {35879410}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Animal Husbandry/methods ; Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Livestock ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Global climate change affects all aspects of human society, especially agricultural and animal husbandry production. Northwest China has been detrimentally affected by the climatic variations due to its high exposure to extreme climatic events. A number of studies have reported agro-pastoralists' perceptions and adaptation responses to climate change, but the current knowledge of agro-pastoralists' perceptions of climate change in China are insufficient. To fill this research gap, this study aims to investigate the perception level of agro-pastoralists in Northwest China on climate change and related factors. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire based on household surveys of 554 study participants in four counties in Gansu Province, China. Raw data were collected using stratified random sampling. A probit model was used to analyze the respondents' understanding of climate change and its related socio-economic and demographic variables. Our results show that the majority of respondents were aware (70%) of the changes in temperature and precipitation. Socioeconomic and demographic variables such as gender, farming experience, education level, cultivated land size, agricultural income, livestock, village cadre experience, access to weather information of agro-pastoralists are pertinently related to agro-pastoralists' awareness of climate change. Farming experience, education level, household size, grassland size, agricultural income, association membership, village cadre experience has a high impact on agro-pastoralists' adaptation to climate change. The results of this study will help guide government agencies and decision makers, and help arid and semi-arid areas to build sustainable adaptation measures under the framework of climate change. The study recommends institutions targeting households' livelihood improvement and making decisions concerning climate change adaptation need to focus on mass media and information technology, improving locally adapted extension services, improved irrigation, expand loan channels.}, }
@article {pmid35878942, year = {2022}, author = {Segal, TR and Giudice, LC}, title = {Systematic review of climate change effects on reproductive health.}, journal = {Fertility and sterility}, volume = {118}, number = {2}, pages = {215-223}, doi = {10.1016/j.fertnstert.2022.06.005}, pmid = {35878942}, issn = {1556-5653}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Reproductive Health ; Vulnerable Populations ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major risk factor for overall health, including reproductive health, and well-being. Increasing temperatures, due mostly to increased greenhouse gases trapping excess heat in the atmosphere, result in erratic weather patterns, wildfires, displacement of large communities, and stagnant water resulting in vector-borne diseases that, together, have set the stage for new and devastating health threats across the globe. These conditions disproportionately affect disadvantaged and vulnerable populations, including women, pregnant persons, young children, the elderly, and the disabled. This review reports on the evidence for the adverse impacts of air pollution, wildfires, heat stress, floods, toxic chemicals, and vector-borne diseases on male and female fertility, the developing fetus, and obstetric outcomes. Reproductive health care providers are uniquely positioned and have an unprecedented opportunity to educate patients and policy makers about mitigating the impact of climate change to assure reproductive health in this and future generations.}, }
@article {pmid35878847, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, H and Lin, S and Dai, J and Ge, Q}, title = {Modeling the effect of adaptation to future climate change on spring phenological trend of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {846}, number = {}, pages = {157540}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157540}, pmid = {35878847}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Climate Change ; *Fagus/physiology ; Plant Leaves ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Temperate trees could cope with climate change through phenotypic plasticity of phenological key events or adaptation in situ via selection on genetic variation. However, the relative contribution of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity to phenological change is unclear for many ecologically important tree species. Here, we analyzed the leaf-out data of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 50 provenances planted in 7 trial sites. We first constructed a function between chilling accumulation (CA) and photoperiod-associated heat requirement (PHR) of leaf-out date for each provenance and quantified the relationship between parameters of the CA-PHR function and climatic variables at provenance origins by using the random forest model. Furthermore, we used the provenance-specific CA-PHR function to simulate future leaf-out dates under two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and two assumptions (no adaptation and adaptation). The results showed that both CA, provenance, and their interactions affected the PHR of leaf-out. The provenances from southeastern Europe exhibited a stronger response of PHR to CA and thus flushed earlier than northwestern provenances. The parameters of the CA-PHR function were connected with climatic variables (e.g., mean diurnal temperature range, temperature seasonality) at the originating sites of each provenance. If only considering the phenotypic plasticity, the leaf-out date of European beech in 2070-2099 will advance by 6.8 and 9.0 days on average relative to 1951-2020 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. However, if F. sylvatica adapts to future climate change by adopting the current strategy, the advance of the leaf-out date will weaken by 1.4 and 3.4 days under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Our results suggest that the European beech could slow down its spring phenological advances and reduce its spring frost risk if it adopts the current strategy to adapt to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35878185, year = {2022}, author = {Zingales, V and Taroncher, M and Martino, PA and Ruiz, MJ and Caloni, F}, title = {Climate Change and Effects on Molds and Mycotoxins.}, journal = {Toxins}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {35878185}, issn = {2072-6651}, mesh = {*Aflatoxins ; Climate Change ; Food Contamination/analysis ; *Fumonisins ; Fungi ; *Mycotoxins/analysis ; }, abstract = {Earth's climate is undergoing adverse global changes as an unequivocal result of anthropogenic activity. The occurring environmental changes are slowly shaping the balance between plant growth and related fungal diseases. Climate (temperature, available water, and light quality/quantity; as well as extreme drought, desertification, and fluctuations of humid/dry cycles) represents the most important agroecosystem factor influencing the life cycle stages of fungi and their ability to colonize crops, survive, and produce toxins. The ability of mycotoxigenic fungi to respond to Climate Change (CC) may induce a shift in their geographical distribution and in the pattern of mycotoxin occurrence. The present review examines the available evidence on the impact of CC factors on growth and mycotoxin production by the key mycotoxigenic fungi belonging to the genera Aspergillus, Penicillium, and Fusarium, which include several species producing mycotoxins of the greatest concern worldwide: aflatoxins (AFs), ochratoxins, and fumonisins (FUMs).}, }
@article {pmid35875578, year = {2022}, author = {Saud, S and Wang, D and Fahad, S and Alharby, HF and Bamagoos, AA and Mjrashi, A and Alabdallah, NM and AlZahrani, SS and AbdElgawad, H and Adnan, M and Sayyed, RZ and Ali, S and Hassan, S}, title = {Comprehensive Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production and Adaptive Strategies in China.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {926059}, pmid = {35875578}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {The rice production system is one of the most climate change sensitive agro-ecosystems. This paper reviews the effects of current and future climate change on rice production in China. In recent decades, thermal resources have increased during the rice growing season, while solar radiation resources have decreased, and precipitation heterogeneity has increased. The increasing frequency of high-temperature stress, heavy rainfall, drought, and flood disasters may reduce the utilization efficiency of hydrothermal resources. Climate change, thus far, has resulted in a significant northward shift in the potential planting boundaries of single- and double-cropping rice production systems, which negatively affects the growth duration of single-, early-, and late-cropping rice. Studies based on statistical and process-based crop models show that climate change has affected rice production in China. The effects of climate change on the yield of single rice (SR), early rice (ER), and late rice (LR) were significant; however, the results of different methods and different rice growing areas were different to some extent. The trend of a longer growth period and higher yield of rice reflects the ability of China's rice production system to adapt to climate change by adjusting planting regionalization and improving varieties and cultivation techniques. The results of the impact assessment under different climate scenarios indicated that the rice growth period would shorten and yield would decrease in the future. This means that climate change will seriously affect China's rice production and food security. Further research requires a deeper understanding of abiotic stress physiology and its integration into ecophysiological models to reduce the uncertainty of impact assessment and expand the systematicness of impact assessment.}, }
@article {pmid35874984, year = {2022}, author = {Niedermeier, M and Frühauf, A and Kopp, M}, title = {Intention to Engage in Mountain Sport During the Summer Season in Climate Change Affected Environments.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {828405}, pmid = {35874984}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Humans ; *Intention ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Natural environments can make it easier to engage in regular physical activity, including mountain sport activities. However, global warming is expected to change natural environments, especially in mountainous regions with potential impacts on physical activity behavior. While there is some evidence of a reduced intention to engage in winter sport in climate change affected environments, little is known on the impact of climate change in mountain sports conducted in the summer season. Therefore, the present study aimed at comparing the effect of being exposed to a climate change affected scenario (CCA) to being exposed to a climate change unaffected scenario (CCU) on the intention to engage in summer mountain sport activities. Furthermore, we aimed to analyze the role of anticipated affective responses in the context of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Using a web-based experimental cross-sectional study design, participants were randomly allocated to scenarios of either CCA or CCU pictures. Participants were asked to complete questions about TPB variables and about affective responses referring to the displayed scenarios. Statistical analyses included tests on group differences and hierarchical linear regression analyses. TPB variables (intention to engage in summer mountain sport, attitude, and perceived behavioral control) did not show significant group differences between CCA (n = 155) and CCU (n = 156), p > 0.131; r < -0.10. Significantly lower anticipated affective valence was found in CCA compared to CCU, p < 0.001, r = -0.43. Affective valence did not significantly improve the TPB model, change in R[2] = 0.7%, p = 0.096. However, a higher affective valence was significantly associated with a higher attitude toward summer mountain sport, beta = 0.19, p < 0.001. Intention to engage in summer mountain sport was similar in the groups. Therefore, an immediate reduced engagement in mountain sport activities due to climate change seems unlikely in the summer season, although differentiated findings across various activities of summer mountain sport cannot be excluded. A reduced affective valence during summer mountain sport activities might occur in the presence of signs of climate change in the environment, which may lead to longer-term behavior changes in climate change affected scenarios also in the summer by repeated experiences of reduced valence.}, }
@article {pmid35874924, year = {2021}, author = {Malek, &#x17d; and Verburg, PH}, title = {Representing responses to climate change in spatial land system models.}, journal = {Land degradation &amp; development}, volume = {32}, number = {17}, pages = {4954-4973}, pmid = {35874924}, issn = {1099-145X}, abstract = {Modelling future change to land use and land cover is done as part of many local and global scenario environmental assessments. Nevertheless, there are still considerable challenges related to simulating land-use responses to climate change. Mostly, climate change is considered by changing the temperature and precipitation, affecting the spatial distribution and productivity of future land use and land cover as result of differential changes in growing conditions. Other climate change effects, such as changes in the water resources needed to support future cropland expansion and intensification, are often neglected. In this study, we demonstrate how including different types of responses to climate change influences the simulation of future changes to land use and land cover, and land management. We study the influence of including different climate change effects in land system modeling step by step. The results show that land system models need to include numerous simultaneous climate change effects, particularly when looking at adaptation options such as implementing irrigation. Otherwise, there is a risk of biased impact estimates leading either to under- or overestimation of the consequences of land use change, including land degradation. Spatial land system models therefore need to be developed accounting for a multitude of climate change impacts, uncertainties related to climate data, and an assessment of the sensitivity of the outcomes toward the decisions of modellers on representing climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid35873108, year = {2022}, author = {Woo, TH}, title = {Climate change analysis in energy-mix with non-carbon emission energy incorporated with pandemic society.}, journal = {Environment, development and sustainability}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, pmid = {35873108}, issn = {1573-2975}, abstract = {The climate energy-mix is analyzed in the aspects of the pandemic as well as global warming where the nuclear and renewable energies are considered the cleaner powers. These factors of the pandemic, global warming, and energy-mix are able to be related to each other in the analysis. The simulations are performed by the modeling which has the quantifications of energy-mix study as mitigations, pandemic, and global-warming. Carbon neutrality is connected to global warming via energy-mix and mitigations. In the case of mitigations, energy-mix case oscillated much higher than the non-energy-mix case. In the case of global warming, the relative impact value is higher in the non-energy-mix case. So, global warming is mitigated when the energy-mix is performed. In figure, the 9.875th year has the biggest difference between the two cases when the energy-mix has the highest effect on the global warming aspect. After this pandemic, the leverage of carbon neutrality could be made.}, }
@article {pmid35872197, year = {2022}, author = {Fu, G and Wang, J and Li, S}, title = {Response of forage nutritional quality to climate change and human activities in alpine grasslands.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {845}, number = {}, pages = {157552}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157552}, pmid = {35872197}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbohydrates ; *Climate Change ; Detergents ; *Grassland ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Nutritive Value ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change and human activities on forage nutritional quality will affect nutrient capacity, livestock development and wildlife conservation in alpine regions. However, the response of forage nutritional quality to climate change and human activities remains indistinguishable across the whole Tibet. Here, six forage variables (i.e., crude protein, CP; ether extract, EE; crude ash, Ash; acid detergent fiber, ADF; neutral detergent fiber, NDF; water-soluble carbohydrates, WSC) together represented forage nutritional quality. We estimated potential forage CP, EE, Ash, ADF, NDF and WSC contents using growing mean air temperature, total precipitation and total radiation based on random forest models. We also estimated actual forage CP, EE, Ash, ADF, NDF and WSC contents using growing mean air temperature, total precipitation and total radiation, and maximum normalized difference vegetation index based on random forest models. Climate change had nonlinear effects on potential forage CP, EE, Ash, ADF, NDF and WSC contents. Radiation change predominated the variations of potential forage nutritional quality. Human activities altered the sensitivities of forage nutritional quality to climate change. The effects of human activities on forage nutritional quality increased with increasing longitude and precipitation, and decreasing elevation and radiation. Consequently, we should pay attention to the radiation change besides climate warming and precipitation change, at least for forage nutritional quality in alpine grasslands. The effects of human activities on forage nutritional quality can vary with longitude, elevation, precipitation and radiation in alpine grasslands.}, }
@article {pmid35870886, year = {2022}, author = {Cappa, EP and Chen, C and Klutsch, JG and Sebastian-Azcona, J and Ratcliffe, B and Wei, X and Da Ros, L and Ullah, A and Liu, Y and Benowicz, A and Sadoway, S and Mansfield, SD and Erbilgin, N and Thomas, BR and El-Kassaby, YA}, title = {Multiple-trait analyses improved the accuracy of genomic prediction and the power of genome-wide association of productivity and climate change-adaptive traits in lodgepole pine.}, journal = {BMC genomics}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {536}, pmid = {35870886}, issn = {1471-2164}, support = {RES0035327//Alberta Innovates Bio Solutions/ ; 16R75221//Alberta Innovates Bio Solutions/ ; RES0028979//Alberta Innovates Bio Solutions/ ; RES0037021//Forest Resource Improvement Association of Alberta (FRIAA)/ ; RES0036845//Forest Resource Improvement Association of Alberta (FRIAA)/ ; RES0034664//Genome Alberta/ ; 16R10106//Genome Alberta/ ; RES0034657//Genome Alberta/ ; 16R75421//Genome British Columbia/ ; 16R75546//Genome British Columbia/ ; 16R75036//Genome Canada/ ; RES0034654//Genome Canada/ ; RES0031330//Genome Canada/ ; RES0034569//University of Alberta/Faculty ALES/Dept RR/ ; MRI-1531128//National Science Foundation/ ; ACI-1548562//National Science Foundation/ ; ACI-1445606//National Science Foundation/ ; MCB180177//The Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Genome-Wide Association Study ; Genomics/methods ; Models, Genetic ; Phenotype ; *Pinus/genetics ; Plant Breeding ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Trees ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Genomic prediction (GP) and genome-wide association (GWA) analyses are currently being employed to accelerate breeding cycles and to identify alleles or genomic regions of complex traits in forest trees species. Here, 1490 interior lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud. var. latifolia Engelm) trees from four open-pollinated progeny trials were genotyped with 25,099 SNPs, and phenotyped for 15 growth, wood quality, pest resistance, drought tolerance, and defense chemical (monoterpenes) traits. The main objectives of this study were to: (1) identify genetic markers associated with these traits and determine their genetic architecture, and to compare the marker detected by single- (ST) and multiple-trait (MT) GWA models; (2) evaluate and compare the accuracy and control of bias of the genomic predictions for these traits underlying different ST and MT parametric and non-parametric GP methods. GWA, ST and MT analyses were compared using a linear transformation of genomic breeding values from the respective genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) model. GP, ST and MT parametric and non-parametric (Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces, RKHS) models were compared in terms of prediction accuracy (PA) and control of bias.<br><br>RESULTS: MT-GWA analyses identified more significant associations than ST. Some SNPs showed potential pleiotropic effects. Averaging across traits, PA from the studied ST-GP models did not differ significantly from each other, with generally a slight superiority of the RKHS method. MT-GP models showed significantly higher PA (and lower bias) than the ST models, being generally the PA (bias) of the RKHS approach significantly higher (lower) than the GBLUP.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The power of GWA and the accuracy of GP were improved when MT models were used in this lodgepole pine population. Given the number of GP and GWA models fitted and the traits assessed across four progeny trials, this work has produced the most comprehensive empirical genomic study across any lodgepole pine population to date.}, }
@article {pmid35870584, year = {2022}, author = {Wu, J and Luo, J and Zhang, H and Qin, S and Yu, M}, title = {Projections of land use change and habitat quality assessment by coupling climate change and development patterns.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {847}, number = {}, pages = {157491}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157491}, pmid = {35870584}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Exploring future land use changes and assessing the habitat quality remains a challenging topic for watershed ecological sustainability. However, most studies ignore the effects of coupled climate change and development patterns. In this study, a framework for assessing habitat quality under the influence of future land use change is constructed based on exploring the driving forces of land use change factors and integrating the system dynamics (SD) model, future land use simulation (FLUS) model and InVest model. The framework enables the projection of land use change and the assessment of habitat quality in the context of future climate change and different development strategies. Applying the framework to the Weihe River Basin, the main driving forces of land-use change in the Weihe River Basin were identified based on geographical detectors, and habitat quality assessment was realized for the Weihe River Basin under the coupled scenarios of three typical shared socioeconomic pathways and future development patterns (SSP126-EP, SSP245-ND, SSP585-EG). The results show that 1) population, precipitation, and temperature are the major driving factors for land use change. 2) The coupling model of SD and FLUS can effectively simulate the future trend of land use change, the relative error is within 2 %, and the overall accuracy is 93.58 %. 3) Significant differences in habitat quality as a result of modifications in land use patterns in different contexts. Affected by ecological protection, the habitat quality in SSP126-EP was significantly better than that in SSP245-ND and SSP585-EG. This research can provide references for future watershed ecological management decisions.}, }
@article {pmid35870077, year = {2023}, author = {Leão, MLP and Zhang, L and da Silva Júnior, FMR}, title = {Effect of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) on health indicators: climate change scenarios in a Brazilian metropolis.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {2229-2240}, pmid = {35870077}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {310856/2020-5//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; }, mesh = {Particulate Matter/toxicity/analysis ; Climate Change ; Brazil ; *Air Pollutants/toxicity/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; *Environmental Pollutants ; }, abstract = {Recife is recognized as the 16th most vulnerable city to climate change in the world. In addition, the city has levels of air pollutants above the new limits proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2021. In this sense, the present study had two main objectives: (1) To evaluate the health (and economic) benefits related to the reduction in mean annual concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 considering the new limits recommended by the WHO: 15 µg/m[3] (PM10) and 5 µg/m[3] (PM2.5) and (2) To simulate the behavior of these pollutants in scenarios with increased temperature (2 and 4 °C) using machine learning. The averages of PM2.5 and PM10 were above the limits recommended by the WHO. The scenario simulating the reduction in these pollutants below the new WHO limits would avoid more than 130 deaths and 84 hospital admissions for respiratory or cardiovascular problems. This represents a gain of 15.2 months in life expectancy and a cost of almost 160 million dollars. Regarding the simulated temperature increase, the most conservative (+ 2 °C) and most drastic (+ 4 °C) scenarios predict an increase of approximately 6.5 and 15%, respectively, in the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10, with a progressive increase in deaths attributed to air pollution. The study shows that the increase in temperature will have impacts on air particulate matter and health outcomes. Climate change mitigation and pollution control policies must be implemented for meeting new WHO air quality standards which may have health benefits.}, }
@article {pmid35867294, year = {2022}, author = {Hou, JJ and Liu, LC and Dong, ZY and Wang, Z and Yu, SW and Zhang, JT}, title = {Response of China's electricity consumption to climate change using monthly household data.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {60}, pages = {90272-90289}, pmid = {35867294}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Meteorology ; Poverty ; China ; }, abstract = {Intensifying climate change significantly impacts residential electricity consumption, especially in developing countries, such as China, that are experiencing rapid income growth. By combining meteorological and monthly household consumption survey data, this study explores the response function of residential electricity consumption to temperature in China from a micro perspective. Future residential electricity demands and related CO2 emissions are then forecast under different climate scenarios. Overall, the response function is U-shaped, and one additional day above 34 °C will increase monthly residential electricity consumption by 2.11%. Global warming will more likely increase the electricity burden on low-income groups. There will be notable seasonal changes in electricity demand in the future, and the largest increase will occur in August. The total demand for residential electricity caused by temperature change will show a fluctuating growth trend, from 0.8% and 1% in 2025 to 2% and 2.9% in 2060 under the RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively; meanwhile, this demand will be accompanied by a cumulative increase in carbon dioxide emissions.}, }
@article {pmid35867162, year = {2022}, author = {Hamal, R and Thakuri, BM and Poudel, KR and Gurung, A and Yun, SJ}, title = {Farmers' perceptions of climate change in Lower Mustang, Nepal.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {9}, pages = {606}, pmid = {35867162}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Nepal ; }, abstract = {Climate change has become one of the highlighted issues of the world, resulting in vulnerability and adverse effects on livelihoods. It leads to an undeniable challenge for policymakers, the government, and other respective associations to formulate effective strategies; however, before formulating any coping, adaptation, or mitigation strategies, understanding the reality and perception of local people is crucial. This study investigated whether local farmers inhabiting Lower Mustang are aware of climatic change. The study comprised various methodologies, such as household surveys, field visits and focus group discussions (FGD). The farmers' responses were consistent with the actual temperature and precipitation data recorded between 1973 and 2018 at meteorological stations situated near the aforementioned regions. The finding shows that the average annual temperature of this region has risen by 0.021 °C/year over the last 45 years. Similarly, the annual precipitation increased 1.83 mm/year on average, which was also acknowledged by local farmers. From the field visit, it was also noticed that the vulnerability of climate change is considerably high and has insufficient capacity to cope with climate change. Thus, the government, and other stakeholders should assist in building the adaptive capacity of this Himalayan region.}, }
@article {pmid35862521, year = {2022}, author = {Voosen, P}, title = {Cleaner air is adding to global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {377}, number = {6604}, pages = {353-354}, doi = {10.1126/science.ade0167}, pmid = {35862521}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Aerosolized Particles and Droplets/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; *Atmosphere/chemistry ; *Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; Satellite Imagery ; }, abstract = {Satellites capture fall in light-blocking pollution.}, }
@article {pmid35862396, year = {2022}, author = {García Molinos, J and Gavrilyeva, T and Joompa, P and Narita, D and Chotiboriboon, S and Parilova, V and Sirisai, S and Okhlopkov, I and Zhang, Z and Yakovleva, N and Kongpunya, P and Gowachirapant, S and Gabyshev, V and Kriengsinyos, W}, title = {Study protocol: International joint research project 'climate change resilience of Indigenous socioecological systems' (RISE).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {7}, pages = {e0271792}, pmid = {35862396}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Indigenous Peoples ; Russia ; Thailand ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic changes in the environment are increasingly threatening the sustainability of socioecological systems on a global scale. As stewards of the natural capital of over a quarter of the world's surface area, Indigenous Peoples (IPs), are at the frontline of these changes. Indigenous socioecological systems (ISES) are particularly exposed and sensitive to exogenous changes because of the intimate bounds of IPs with nature. Traditional food systems (TFS) represent one of the most prominent components of ISES, providing not only diverse and nutritious food but also critical socioeconomic, cultural, and spiritual assets. However, a proper understanding of how future climate change may compromise TFS through alterations of related human-nature interactions is still lacking. Climate change resilience of indigenous socioecological systems (RISE) is a new joint international project that aims to fill this gap in knowledge.<br><br>METHODS AND DESIGN: RISE will use a comparative case study approach coupling on-site socioeconomic, nutritional, and ecological surveys of the target ISES of Sakha (Republic of Sakha, Russian Federation) and Karen (Kanchanaburi, Thailand) people with statistical models projecting future changes in the distribution and composition of traditional food species under contrasting climate change scenarios. The results presented as alternative narratives of future climate change impacts on TFS will be integrated into a risk assessment framework to explore potential vulnerabilities of ISES operating through altered TFS, and possible adaptation options through stakeholder consultation so that lessons learned can be applied in practice.<br><br>DISCUSSION: By undertaking a comprehensive analysis of the socioeconomic and nutritional contributions of TFS toward the sustainability of ISES and projecting future changes under alternative climate change scenarios, RISE is strategically designed to deliver novel and robust science that will contribute towards the integration of Indigenous issues within climate change and sustainable agendas while generating a forum for discussion among Indigenous communities and relevant stakeholders. Its goal is to promote positive co-management and regional development through sustainability and climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid35861887, year = {2022}, author = {Malik, RA and Reshi, ZA and Rafiq, I and Singh, SP}, title = {Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {9}, pages = {596}, pmid = {35861887}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Abies ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; }, abstract = {Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 km[2], 790,837 km[2] and 676,918 km[2] for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa.}, }
@article {pmid35861295, year = {2023}, author = {Lee, JS and Chung, SY}, title = {The Threat of Climate Change on Tick-Borne Infections: Rising Trend of Infections and Geographic Distribution of Climate Risk Factors Associated With Ticks.}, journal = {The Journal of infectious diseases}, volume = {227}, number = {2}, pages = {295-303}, doi = {10.1093/infdis/jiac300}, pmid = {35861295}, issn = {1537-6613}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Ticks ; Climate Change ; *Tick-Borne Diseases/epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; *Ixodes ; }, abstract = {Ticks transmit a wide range of pathogens. The spread of tick-borne infections is an emerging, yet often overlooked, threat in the context of climate change. The infections have rapidly increased over the past few years in South Korea despite no significant changes in socioeconomic circumstances. We investigated the impact of climate change on the surge of tick-borne infections and identified potential disease hot spots at a resolution of 5 km by 5 km. A composite index was constructed based on multiple climate and environmental indicators and compared with the observed tick-borne infections. The surge of tick-borne episodes corresponded to the rising trend of the index over time. High-risk areas identified by the index can be used to prioritize locations for disease prevention activities. Monitoring climate risk factors may provide an opportunity to predict the spread of the infections in advance.}, }
@article {pmid35861123, year = {2023}, author = {Chevance, G and Fresán, U and Hekler, E and Edmondson, D and Lloyd, SJ and Ballester, J and Litt, J and Cvijanovic, I and Araújo-Soares, V and Bernard, P}, title = {Thinking Health-related Behaviors in a Climate Change Context: A Narrative Review.}, journal = {Annals of behavioral medicine : a publication of the Society of Behavioral Medicine}, volume = {57}, number = {3}, pages = {193-204}, pmid = {35861123}, issn = {1532-4796}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Health Behavior ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Human activities have changed the environment so profoundly over the past two centuries that human-induced climate change is now posing serious health-related threats to current and future generations. Rapid action from all scientific fields, including behavioral medicine, is needed to contribute to both mitigation of, and adaption to, climate change.<br><br>PURPOSE: This article aims to identify potential bi-directional associations between climate change impacts and health-related behaviors, as well as a set of key actions for the behavioral medicine community.<br><br>METHODS: We synthesized the existing literature about (i) the impacts of rising temperatures, extreme weather events, air pollution, and rising sea level on individual behaviors (e.g., eating behaviors, physical activity, sleep, substance use, and preventive care) as well as the structural factors related to these behaviors (e.g., the food system); and (ii) the concurrent positive and negative roles that health-related behaviors can play in mitigation and adaptation to climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: Based on this literature review, we propose a first conceptual model of climate change and health-related behavior feedback loops. Key actions are proposed, with particular consideration for health equity implications of future behavioral interventions. Actions to bridge the fields of behavioral medicine and climate sciences are also discussed.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We contend that climate change is among the most urgent issues facing all scientists and should become a central priority for the behavioral medicine community.}, }
@article {pmid35859742, year = {2022}, author = {Yang, Y and Luo, W and Xu, J and Guan, P and Chang, L and Wu, X and Wu, D}, title = {Fallow Land Enhances Carbon Sequestration in Glomalin and Soil Aggregates Through Regulating Diversity and Network Complexity of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi Under Climate Change in Relatively High-Latitude Regions.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {930622}, pmid = {35859742}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Soil aggregation and aggregate-associated carbon (C) play an essential function in soil health and C sequestration. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are considered to be primary soil aggregators due to the combined effect of extraradical hyphae and glomalin-related soil proteins (GRSPs). However, the effects of diversity and network complexity of AMF community on stability of soil aggregates and their associated C under long-term climate change (CC) and land-use conversion (LUC) in relatively high-latitude regions are largely unexplored. Therefore, an 8-year soil plot (with a 30-year cropping history) transplantation experiment was conducted to simulate CC and LUC from cropland to fallow land. The results showed that Glomus, Paraglomus, and Archaeospora were the most abundant genera. The diversity of AMF community in fallow land was higher than cropland and increased with increasing of mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP). Fallow land enhanced the network complexity of AMF community. The abundance families (Glomeraceae and Paraglomeraceae) exhibited higher values of topological features and were more often located in central ecological positions. Long-term fallow land had a significantly higher hyphal length density, GRSP, mean weight diameter (MWD), geometric mean diameter (GMD), and C concentration of GRSP (C-GRSP) than the cropland. The soil aggregate associated soil organic carbon (SOC) was 16.8, 18.6, and 13.8% higher under fallow land compared to that under cropland at HLJ, JL, and LN study sites, respectively. The structural equation model and random forest regression revealed that AMF diversity, network complexity, and their secreted GRSP mediate the effects of CC and LUC on C-GRSP and aggregate-associated SOC. This study elucidates the climate sensitivity of C within GRSP and soil aggregates which response symmetry to LUC and highlights the potential importance of AMF in C sequestration and climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid35859111, year = {2022}, author = {O'Brien, O and Pendleton, DE and Ganley, LC and McKenna, KR and Kenney, RD and Quintana-Rizzo, E and Mayo, CA and Kraus, SD and Redfern, JV}, title = {Repatriation of a historical North Atlantic right whale habitat during an era of rapid climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {12407}, pmid = {35859111}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; New England ; Seasons ; *Whales ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting species distributions in space and time. In the Gulf of Maine, one of the fastest-warming marine regions on Earth, rapid warming has caused prey-related changes in the distribution of the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Concurrently, right whales have returned to historically important areas such as southern New England shelf waters, an area known to have been a whaling ground. We compared aerial survey data from two time periods (2013-2015; 2017-2019) to assess trends in right whale abundance in the region during winter and spring. Using distance sampling techniques, we chose a hazard rate key function to model right whale detections and used seasonal encounter rates to estimate abundance. The mean log of abundance increased by 1.40 annually between 2013 and 2019 (p = 0.004), and the mean number of individuals detected per year increased by 2.23 annually between 2013 and 2019 (R[2] = 0.69, p = 0.001). These results demonstrate the current importance of this habitat and suggest that management options must continually evolve as right whales repatriate historical habitats and potentially expand to new habitats as they adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35858427, year = {2022}, author = {Wieder, WR and Kennedy, D and Lehner, F and Musselman, KN and Rodgers, KB and Rosenbloom, N and Simpson, IR and Yamaguchi, R}, title = {Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {30}, pages = {e2202393119}, pmid = {35858427}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Seasons ; *Snow ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. Our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35857959, year = {2022}, author = {Costa-Coutinho, JMD and Jardim, MAG and Miranda, LS and Castro, AAJF}, title = {Climate change effects on marginal savannas from central-north Brazil.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {94}, number = {3}, pages = {e20210191}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202220210191}, pmid = {35857959}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Grassland ; Plants ; }, abstract = {This study estimated the potential effects of climate change on peripheral plant diversity by predicting the distribution of species from Cerrado of Northern Brazil. Ecological niche modeling was used to provide present and future projections of responses in terms of occurrence of ten woody species based on four algorithms and four future climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Potential refuge areas for conservation actions were identified, and evidence of the vulnerability of the flora was demonstrated based on the disparity between potential areas of climate stability amid current protected areas. The results suggested a lack of pattern between the scenarios and an idiosyncratic response of the species, indicating different impacts on plant communities and the existence of unequal stable alternative conditions, which could bring consequences to the ecological relationships and functionality of the floras. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, most species presented an expansion of potential occurrence areas, suppressing or cohabiting with species of adjacent biomes. Typically marginal plants were the most sensitive. Overlapping adequate habitats are concentrated in the NBC. The analysis of habitats in relation to anthropized areas and PAs demonstrate low future effectiveness in the protection of these savannas.}, }
@article {pmid35856788, year = {2022}, author = {Peters, E and Salas, RN}, title = {Communicating Statistics on the Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {387}, number = {3}, pages = {193-196}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp2201801}, pmid = {35856788}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Health Communication ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35855601, year = {2022}, author = {Voskamp, A and Hof, C and Biber, MF and Böhning-Gaese, K and Hickler, T and Niamir, A and Willis, SG and Fritz, SA}, title = {Projected climate change impacts on the phylogenetic diversity of the world's terrestrial birds: more than species numbers.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {289}, number = {1979}, pages = {20212184}, pmid = {35855601}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Birds/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. As abiotic tolerances and dispersal abilities vary, species-specific responses have the potential to further amplify or ameliorate the ensuing impacts on species assemblages. Here, we investigate the effects of climate change on species distributions across non-marine birds, quantifying its projected impact on species richness (SR) as well as on different aspects of phylogenetic diversity globally. Going beyond previous work, we disentangle the potential impacts of species gains versus losses on assemblage-level phylogenetic diversity under climate change and compare the projected impacts to randomized assemblage changes. We show that beyond its effects on SR, climate change could have profound impacts on assemblage-level phylogenetic diversity and composition, which differ significantly from random changes and among regions. Though marked species losses are most frequent in tropical and subtropical areas in our projections, phylogenetic restructuring of species communities is likely to occur all across the globe. Furthermore, our results indicate that the most severe changes to the phylogenetic diversity of local assemblages are likely to be caused by species range shifts and local species gains rather than range reductions and extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering diverse measures in climate impact assessments.}, }
@article {pmid35855438, year = {2022}, author = {Wamsler, C and Bristow, J}, title = {At the intersection of mind and climate change: integrating inner dimensions of climate change into policymaking and practice.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {173}, number = {1-2}, pages = {7}, pmid = {35855438}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Dominant policy approaches have failed to generate action at anywhere near the rate, scale or depth needed to avert climate change and environmental disaster. In particular, they fail to address the need for a fundamental cultural transformation, which involves a collective shift in mindsets (values, beliefs, worldviews and associated inner human capacities). Whilst scholars and practitioners are increasingly calling for more integrative approaches, knowledge on how the link between our mind and the climate crisis can be best addressed in policy responses is still scarce. Our study addresses this gap. Based on a survey and in-depth interviews with high-level policymakers worldwide, we explore how they perceive the intersection of mind and climate change, how it is reflected in current policymaking and how it could be better considered to support transformation. Our findings show, on the one hand, that the mind is perceived as a victim of increasing climate impacts. On the other hand, it is considered a key driver of the crisis, and a barrier to action, to the detriment of both personal and planetary wellbeing. The resultant vicious cycle of mind and climate change is, however, not reflected in mainstream policymaking, which fails to generate more sustainable pathways. At the same time, there are important lessons from other fields (e.g. education, health, the workplace, policy mainstreaming) that provide insights into how to integrate aspects of mind into climate policies. Our results show that systematic integration into policymaking is a key for improving both climate resilience and climate responsiveness across individual, collective, organisational and system levels and indicate the inner human potential and capacities that support related change. We conclude with some policy recommendations and further research that is needed to move from a vicious to a virtuous cycle of mind and climate change that supports personal and planetary wellbeing.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03398-9.}, }
@article {pmid35854113, year = {2022}, author = {Eise, J}, title = {How Colombian coffee farmers helped my climate-change research.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {35854113}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid35851980, year = {2022}, author = {Reddin, CJ and Aberhan, M and Raja, NB and Kocsis, &#xc1;T}, title = {Global warming generates predictable extinctions of warm- and cold-water marine benthic invertebrates via thermal habitat loss.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {19}, pages = {5793-5807}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16333}, pmid = {35851980}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; *Global Warming ; Invertebrates ; Water ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic global warming is redistributing marine life and may threaten tropical benthic invertebrates with several potential extinction mechanisms. The net impact of climate change on geographical extinction risk nevertheless remains uncertain. Evidence of widespread climate-driven extinctions and of potentially unidentified mechanisms exists in the fossil record. We quantify organism extinction risk across thermal habitats, estimated by paleoclimate reconstructions, over the past 300 million years. Extinction patterns at seven known events of rapid global warming (hyperthermals) differ significantly from typical patterns, resembling those driven by global geometry under simulated global warming. As isotherms move poleward with warming, the interaction between the geometry of the globe and the temperature-latitude relationship causes an uneven loss of thermal habitat and a bimodal latitudinal distribution of extinctions. Genera with thermal optima warmer than ~21°C show raised extinction odds, while extinction odds continually increase for genera with optima below ~11°C. Genera preferring intermediate temperatures generally have no additional extinction risk during hyperthermals, except under extreme conditions as the end-Permian mass extinction. Widespread present-day climate-driven range shifts indicate that occupancy loss is already underway. Given the most-likely projections of modern warming, our model, validated by seven past hyperthermal events, indicates that sustained warming has the potential to annihilate cold-water habitat and its endemic species completely within centuries.}, }
@article {pmid35851608, year = {2022}, author = {Ajjur, SB and Al-Ghamdi, SG}, title = {Exploring urban growth-climate change-flood risk nexus in fast growing cities.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {12265}, pmid = {35851608}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Floods ; Hydrology ; }, abstract = {This study looks at the nexus between urban growth, climate change, and flood risk in Doha, Qatar, a hot-spot, climate change region that has experienced unprecedented urban growth during the last four decades. To this end, this study overviews the main stages of Doha's urban growth and influencing climatic factors during this period. A physically-based hydrological model was then built to simulate surface runoff and quantify flood risk. Finally, the Pearson correlation was used to verify the potential nexus between flood risk, climate change, and urban growth. Surveying showed that, between 1984 and 2020, urban areas grew by 777%, and bare lands decreased by 54.7%. In addition, Doha witnessed various climatic changes with a notable increase in air temperature (+ 8.7%), a decrease in surface wind speed (- 19.5%), and a decrease in potential evapotranspiration losses (- 33.5%). Growth in urban areas and the perturbation of climatic parameters caused runoff to increase by 422%, suggesting that urban growth contributed more than climatic parameters. Pearson correlation coefficient between flood risk and urban growth was strong (0.83) and significant at p < 0.05. Flood risk has a strong significant positive (negative) correlation with air temperature (wind speed) and a moderate positive (negative) correlation with precipitation (potential evapotranspiration). These results pave the way to integrate flood risk reduction measures in local urban development and climate change adaptation plans.}, }
@article {pmid35850490, year = {2023}, author = {Bograd, SJ and Jacox, MG and Hazen, EL and Lovecchio, E and Montes, I and Pozo Buil, M and Shannon, LJ and Sydeman, WJ and Rykaczewski, RR}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {303-328}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-032122-021945}, pmid = {35850490}, issn = {1941-0611}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Ecology ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Water ; }, abstract = {The world's eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) contribute disproportionately to global ocean productivity and provide critical ecosystem services to human society. The impact of climate change on EBUSs and the ecosystems they support is thus a subject of considerable interest. Here, we review hypotheses of climate-driven change in the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecology of EBUSs; describe observed changes over recent decades; and present projected changes over the twenty-first century. Similarities in historical and projected change among EBUSs include a trend toward upwelling intensification in poleward regions, mitigatedwarming in near-coastal regions where upwelling intensifies, and enhanced water-column stratification and a shoaling mixed layer. However, there remains significant uncertainty in how EBUSs will evolve with climate change, particularly in how the sometimes competing changes in upwelling intensity, source-water chemistry, and stratification will affect productivity and ecosystem structure. We summarize the commonalities and differences in historical and projected change in EBUSs and conclude with an assessment of key remaining uncertainties and questions. Future studies will need to address these questions to better understand, project, and adapt to climate-driven changes in EBUSs.}, }
@article {pmid35850348, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, Y and Ma, X and Lu, Y and Hu, X and Lou, L and Tong, Z and Zhang, J}, title = {Assessing the current genetic structure of 21 remnant populations and predicting the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Phoebe sheareri in southern China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {846}, number = {}, pages = {157391}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157391}, pmid = {35850348}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Lauraceae ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Plant Breeding ; }, abstract = {Phoebe sheareri is a valuable tree species known as "Golden Nanmu" and is one of the most important protected tree species in China. However, natural populations are decreasing because of climate change and anthropogenic factors. To evaluate the genetic diversity and structure of remnant populations and the impacts of climate change on the distribution of potential suitable habitats, we conducted a field investigation and sampled 21 P. sheareri natural populations to evaluate their genetic diversity and structure using simple sequence repeat (SSR) molecular markers. Then, we predicted the distribution of suitable P. sheareri habitats across China under future scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and periods (2050 and 2070) using multivariate modeling methods-the MaxEnt model. The results showed a medium level of genetic diversity and low inbreeding in the 21 P. sheareri natural populations, and genetic differentiation among populations was significant, with 21.2 % genetic variation among populations. The remnant populations of P. sheareri were grouped into four genetic clusters based on genetic structure; five environmental variables involving four temperature variables and precipitation seasonality (Bio12) might determine the distribution of P. sheareri populations. In the future, the suitable habitats of P. sheareri are manifested as northward migration, and the highly suitable habitats are expected to increase. Our results highlight the importance of conservation units in situ, giving priority to populations with higher genetic diversity (e.g., TMS, FJS, and THY populations); sampling strategies for ex situ conservation, breeding and reforestation should consider climate change, especially Bio1 (annual mean temperature) and Bio12 (annual precipitation). Overall, this study may provide useful genetic information for strategies for the protection, management, and utilization of P. sheareri.}, }
@article {pmid35850106, year = {2022}, author = {Nakstad, B and Filippi, V and Lusambili, A and Roos, N and Scorgie, F and Chersich, MF and Luchters, S and Kovats, S}, title = {How Climate Change May Threaten Progress in Neonatal Health in the African Region.}, journal = {Neonatology}, volume = {119}, number = {5}, pages = {644-651}, doi = {10.1159/000525573}, pmid = {35850106}, issn = {1661-7819}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Infant Health ; Infant, Newborn ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to have wide-ranging impacts on maternal and neonatal health in Africa. Populations in low-resource settings already experience adverse impacts from weather extremes, a high burden of disease from environmental exposures, and limited access to high-quality clinical care. Climate change is already increasing local temperatures. Neonates are at high risk of heat stress and dehydration due to their unique metabolism, physiology, growth, and developmental characteristics. Infants in low-income settings may have little protection against extreme heat due to housing design and limited access to affordable space cooling. Climate change may increase risks to neonatal health from weather disasters, decreasing food security, and facilitating infectious disease transmission. Effective interventions to reduce risks from the heat include health education on heat risks for mothers, caregivers, and clinicians; nature-based solutions to reduce urban heat islands; space cooling in health facilities; and equitable improvements in housing quality and food systems. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are essential to reduce the long-term impacts of climate change that will further undermine global health strategies to reduce neonatal mortality.}, }
@article {pmid35846695, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, J and Liu, Y}, title = {The Effect of Coronavirus Exposure on CEO Perceptions of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {943952}, pmid = {35846695}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {CEOs' personal experiences can influence their perceptions of climate change and their firms' pro-environmental behavior; a concept termed the experience-perception link. Thus, the experience of the recent COVID-19 pandemic may have caused a change in CEOs' perceptions of another global threat-climate change. We test this hypothesis by comparing survey measures of climate risk perceptions, self-efficacy, and pro-environmental behaviors among 605 randomly selected CEOs in Wuhan across three phases-(1) before, (2) after the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, and (3) after the COVID-19 had been primarily controlled in Wuhan but was declared a pandemic by the WHO. Harnessing between- and within-subjects variation in COVID-19 exposure, we find a substantial increase in climate change beliefs and actions after the COVID-19 evolved from an epidemic to a pandemic, regardless of subjects' exposure to the pandemic. We also demonstrate that this change is due to the salience of the global crisis and the feeling of hope elicited by observing effective responses to the crisis, rather than personal experiences solely made from a local health crisis. Our results reveal unexpectedly positive side effects of the abrupt shifts in CEOs' beliefs and their firms' pro-environmental behaviors in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.}, }
@article {pmid35846465, year = {2022}, author = {Payus, CM and Nur Syazni, MS and Sentian, J}, title = {Extended air pollution index (API) as tool of sustainable indicator in the air quality assessment: El-Nino events with climate change driven.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {e09157}, pmid = {35846465}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The main purpose of this research is to detect the air quality changes with a shorter period of timescale over space that can improve and optimize the risk characterization and conjunctive air quality assessment. Air quality assessment could be based on a very large number of various indicators, including the physical parameter, chemical and biological namely sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM), humidity, air pressure and temperature. Nevertheless, often it is not easy to interpret the results of the air quality status when numerous quality elements are analyzed since each parameter indicates different types of quality classes. Moreover, providing appropriate information on air quality to policymakers, including the public, can be challenging. Hence, with this research there is a need to interpret the results in a more simple way and realistic enough by producing one single number for better and more subjective classification on the air quality rather than using the concentrations-based. Therefore, the Air Pollution Index (API) application in this research will overcome this problem by providing a single score that characterizes the air quality and contamination in a more absolute way. In line with that also, the study could help to improve the existing methodology for air quality assessment in a more simplified way and better evaluation of the air quality status, thus can become an alternative way for analysis of changes in air quality, especially in the absence or limitations of the historical or baseline data for comparison, in response for a better and more sustainable indicator in air quality assessment and management. The research shows that the API values across the Regions were recorded largely higher when El-Nino events occurred during the southwest monsoon season with more than 50% frequency of unhealthy days to hazardous status were detected from the API assessment. HYSPLIT model also shows that the air mass has mostly passed through the biomass burning areas from the neighboring country. Hence, the extension application of API was established in this research with the purpose of strengthening the air quality management in Malaysia, and to maximize the usage of the API and at the same time to filling up the gap of the uncertainty on the overall air quality in Malaysia, especially in terms of combine effects of the air pollutants parameters.}, }
@article {pmid35846172, year = {2022}, author = {Vergunst, F and Berry, HL}, title = {Climate Change and Children's Mental Health: A Developmental Perspective.}, journal = {Clinical psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {767-785}, pmid = {35846172}, issn = {2167-7026}, abstract = {Climate change is a major global public-health challenge that will have wide-ranging impacts on human psychological health and well-being. Children and adolescents are at particular risk because of their rapidly developing brain, vulnerability to disease, and limited capacity to avoid or adapt to threats and impacts. They are also more likely to worry about climate change than any other age group. Drawing on a developmental life-course perspective, we show that climate-change-related threats can additively, interactively, and cumulatively increase psychopathology risk from conception onward; that these effects are already occurring; and that they constitute an important threat to healthy human development worldwide. We then argue that monitoring, measuring, and mitigating these risks is a matter of social justice and a crucial long-term investment in developmental and mental health sciences. We conclude with a discussion of conceptual and measurement challenges and outline research priorities going forward.}, }
@article {pmid35845642, year = {2022}, author = {Sánchez-Bermúdez, M and Del Pozo, JC and Pernas, M}, title = {Effects of Combined Abiotic Stresses Related to Climate Change on Root Growth in Crops.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {918537}, pmid = {35845642}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to crop productivity that negatively affects food security worldwide. Increase in global temperatures are usually accompanied by drought, flooding and changes in soil nutrients composition that dramatically reduced crop yields. Against the backdrop of climate change, human population increase and subsequent rise in food demand, finding new solutions for crop adaptation to environmental stresses is essential. The effects of single abiotic stress on crops have been widely studied, but in the field abiotic stresses tend to occur in combination rather than individually. Physiological, metabolic and molecular responses of crops to combined abiotic stresses seem to be significantly different to individual stresses. Although in recent years an increasing number of studies have addressed the effects of abiotic stress combinations, the information related to the root system response is still scarce. Roots are the underground organs that directly contact with the soil and sense many of these abiotic stresses. Understanding the effects of abiotic stress combinations in the root system would help to find new breeding tools to develop more resilient crops. This review will summarize the current knowledge regarding the effects of combined abiotic stress in the root system in crops. First, we will provide a general overview of root responses to particular abiotic stresses. Then, we will describe how these root responses are integrated when crops are challenged to the combination of different abiotic stress. We will focus on the main changes on root system architecture (RSA) and physiology influencing crop productivity and yield and convey the latest information on the key molecular, hormonal and genetic regulatory pathways underlying root responses to these combinatorial stresses. Finally, we will discuss possible directions for future research and the main challenges needed to be tackled to translate this knowledge into useful tools to enhance crop tolerance.}, }
@article {pmid35845387, year = {2022}, author = {Ouyang, X and Bai, S and Strachan, GB and Chen, A}, title = {Simulation of the potential distribution of rare and endangered Satyrium species in China under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e9054}, pmid = {35845387}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Satyrium is an endangered and rare genus of plant that has various pharmacodynamic functions. In this study, optimized MaxEnt models were used in analyzing potential geographical distributions under current and future climatic conditions (the 2050s and 2070s) and dominant environmental variables influencing their geographic distribution. The results provided reference for implementation of long-term conservation and management approaches for the species. The results showed that the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium ciliatum (S. ciliatum) in China is 32.51 × 10[4] km[2], the total suitable habitat area for Satyrium nepalense (S. nepalense) in China is 61.76 × 10[4] km[2], and the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium yunnanense (S. yunnanense) in China is 89.73 × 10[4] km[2] under current climatic conditions. The potential suitable habitat of Satyrium is mainly distributed in Southwest China. The major environmental variables influencing the geographical distribution of S. ciliatum were isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11). Environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) affected the geographical distribution of S. nepalense; and environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and lower temperature of coldest month (bio6) affected the geographical distribution of S. yunnanense. The distribution range of Satyrium was extended as global warming increased, showing emissions of greenhouse gases with lower concentration (SSP1-2.6) and higher concentration (SSP5-8.5). According to the study, the distribution of suitable habitat will shift with a change to higher elevation areas and higher latitude areas in the future.}, }
@article {pmid35845365, year = {2022}, author = {Leins, JA and Grimm, V and Drechsler, M}, title = {Large-scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands: The role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e9063}, pmid = {35845365}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 × 250 m[2]) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.}, }
@article {pmid35844430, year = {2022}, author = {Al-Munqedhi, BM and El-Sheikh, MA and Alfarhan, AH and Alkahtani, AM and Arif, IA and Rajagopal, R and Alharthi, ST}, title = {Climate change and hydrological regime in arid lands: Impacts of dams on the plant diversity, vegetation structure and soil in Saudi Arabia.}, journal = {Saudi journal of biological sciences}, volume = {29}, number = {5}, pages = {3194-3206}, pmid = {35844430}, issn = {1319-562X}, abstract = {As the direct effects of climate change on the hydrological regime, Saudi Arabia has constructed more than 522 dams of various capacities as part of economic and environmental development. The study aims to assess the impact of dams on plant diversity, vegetation structure and soil in Saudi Arabia. Thirty-five stands were selected from the dams of different sizes of Saudi Arabia. Vegetation samples were established before (upstream) and after (downstream) the dam, and at the undammed (unaffected by the dam) to compare species diversity in the dam sites and undammed sites and to document the potential effects of dams on vegetation structure. A total of 151 plant species belonging to 36 families have been recorded. The vegetation associations are essentially shrubby with widespread annuals. Six novel associations were identified with the application of TWINSPAN, DCA, and CCA programs. They were named after the characteristic species as follows: VG I: Acacia gerrardii-Caralluma retrospiciens; VGII: Acacia tortilis-Maerua oblongifolia; VGIII: Lycium shawii-Farsetia aegyptiaca; VG IV: Farsetia stylosa-Cornulaca monocantha; VG V: Suaeda aegyptiaca-Salsola imbricata-Prosopis farcta and VGVI: Xanthium strumarium-Ochradenus baccatus. These plant communities are evaluated and discussed according to their floristic structure, vegetation diversity and edaphic variables. The riparian or streamside zones upstream and downstream that are periodically flooded contain highly diverse plant communities that are structured by flooding, which creates disturbance and acts as a dispersal mechanism for plants than undammed sites.}, }
@article {pmid35844156, year = {2022}, author = {Neeley, AR and Lomas, MW and Mannino, A and Thomas, C and Vandermeulen, R}, title = {Impact of Growth Phase, Pigment Adaptation, and Climate Change Conditions on the Cellular Pigment and Carbon Content of Fifty-One Phytoplankton Isolates.}, journal = {Journal of phycology}, volume = {58}, number = {5}, pages = {669-690}, doi = {10.1111/jpy.13279}, pmid = {35844156}, issn = {1529-8817}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide ; Chlorophyll ; Chlorophyll A ; Climate Change ; *Diatoms ; Ecosystem ; *Phytoplankton ; }, abstract = {Owing to their importance in aquatic ecosystems, the demand for models that estimate phytoplankton biomass and community composition in the global ocean has increased over the last decade. Moreover, the impacts of climate change, including elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), increased stratification, and warmer sea surface temperatures, will likely shape phytoplankton community composition in the global ocean. Chemotaxonomic methods are useful for modeling phytoplankton community composition from marker pigments normalized to chlorophyll a (Chl a). However, photosynthetic pigments, particularly Chl a, are sensitive to nutrient and light conditions. Cellular carbon is less sensitive, so using carbon biomass instead may provide an alternative approach. To this end, cellular pigment and carbon concentrations were measured in 51 strains of globally relevant, cultured phytoplankton. Pigment-to-Chl a and pigment-to-carbon ratios were computed for each strain. For 25 strains, measurements were taken during two growth phases. While some differences between growth phases were observed, they did not exceed within-class differences. Multiple strains of Amphidinium carterae, Ditylum brightwellii and Heterosigma akashiwo were measured to determine whether time in culture influenced pigment and carbon composition. No appreciable trends in cellular pigment or carbon content were observed. Lastly, the potential impact of climate change conditions on the pigment ratios was assessed using a multistressor experiment that included increased mean light, temperature, and elevated pCO2 on three species: Thalassiosira oceanica, Ostreococcus lucimarinus, and Synechococcus. The largest differences were observed in the pigment-to-carbon ratios, while the marker pigments largely covaried with Chl a. The implications of these observations to chemotaxonomic applications are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid35843319, year = {2022}, author = {Cruz-Flores, M and Pradel, R and Bried, J and Militão, T and Neves, VC and González-Solís, J and Ramos, R}, title = {Will climate change affect the survival of tropical and subtropical species? Predictions based on Bulwer's petrel populations in the NE Atlantic Ocean.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {847}, number = {}, pages = {157352}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157352}, pmid = {35843319}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Seasons ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Climate change has repeatedly been shown to impact the demography and survival of marine top predators. However, most evidence comes from single populations of widely distributed species, limited mainly to polar and subpolar environments. Here, we aimed to evaluate the influence of environmental conditions on the survival of a tropical and migratory seabird over the course of its annual cycle. We used capture-mark-recapture data from three populations of Bulwer's petrel (Bulweria bulwerii) spread across the NE Atlantic Ocean, from the Azores, Canary, and Cabo Verde Islands (including temperate to tropical zones). We also inferred how the survival of this seabird might be affected under different climatic scenarios, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among the environmental variables whose effect we evaluated (North Atlantic Oscillation index, Southern Oscillation Index, Sea Surface Temperature [SST] and wind speed), SST estimated for the breeding area and season was the variable with the greatest influence on adult survival. Negative effects of SST increase emerged across the three populations, most likely through indirect trophic web interactions. Unfortunately, our study also shows that the survival of Bulwer's petrel will be profoundly affected by the different scenarios of climate change, even with the most optimistic trajectory involving the lowest greenhouse gas emission. Furthermore, for the first time, our study predicts stronger impacts of climate change on tropical populations than on subtropical and temperate ones. This result highlights the devastating effect that climate change may also have on tropical areas, and the importance of considering multi-population approaches when evaluating its impacts which may differ across species distributions.}, }
@article {pmid35843317, year = {2022}, author = {Hajani, E}, title = {The influence of climate change and variability on the IFD Curves in NSW, Australia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {845}, number = {}, pages = {157359}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157359}, pmid = {35843317}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Models, Theoretical ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {In this study, the possible impacts of climate change and multi-decadal climate variability on intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) curves were investigated using both stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. The current study covers rainfall data recorded over 41 years for two rainfall stations, namely, Gowrie-055194 and Sydney Airport-066037, located within New South Wales state in Australia. Three future times (2030, 2060, and 2100), as well as 15 rainfall durations ranging from 6 min to 3-days, are considered. Consideration of the location parameter of the GEV distribution is influenced by climatic change and/or climate variability, providing a more consistent set of IFD curves. It is found that when the future period increases, the relative differences between the stationary and non-stationary IFD curves generally increase. When the new IFD curves (i.e., derived from the stationary and non-stationary approaches) are compared to the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) IFD curves, it is clear that the ARR IFD curves and the new stationary IFD curves are more closely aligned compared to the non-stationary IFD curves. The findings of this research are useful and provide valuable information for future planning of water resources, environmental and urbanization plans. It is essential to understand the expected behavior of hydro-meteorological processes regarding the possible changes in the rainfall design.}, }
@article {pmid35843234, year = {2022}, author = {Devi, S}, title = {Climate change driving east Africa towards famine.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {400}, number = {10347}, pages = {150-151}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01325-3}, pmid = {35843234}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Famine ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35842838, year = {2022}, author = {Heimburger, B and Maurer, SS and Schardt, L and Scheu, S and Hartke, TR}, title = {Historical and future climate change fosters expansion of Australian harvester termites, Drepanotermes.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {76}, number = {9}, pages = {2145-2161}, doi = {10.1111/evo.14573}, pmid = {35842838}, issn = {1558-5646}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Isoptera/genetics ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Past evolutionary adaptations to Australia's aridification can help us to understand the potential responses of species in the face of global climate change. Here, we focus on the Australian-endemic genus Drepanotermes, also known as Australian harvester termites, which are mainly found in semiarid and arid regions of Australia. We used species delineation, phylogenetic inference, and ancestral state reconstruction to investigate the evolution of mound-building in Drepanotermes and in relation to reconstructed past climatic conditions. Our findings suggest that mound-building evolved several times independently in Drepanotermes, apparently facilitating expansions into tropical and mesic regions of Australia. The phylogenetic signal of bioclimatic variables, especially limiting environmental factors (e.g., precipitation of the warmest quarter), suggests that the climate exerts a strong selective pressure. Finally, we used environmental niche modeling to predict the present and future habitat suitability for eight Drepanotermes species. Abiotic factors such as annual temperature contributed disproportionately to calibrations, while the inclusion of biotic factors such as predators and vegetation cover improved ecological niche models in some species. A comparison between present and future habitat suitability under two different emission scenarios revealed continued suitability of current ranges as well as substantial habitat gains for most studied species. Human-mediated climate change occurs more quickly than these termites can disperse into newly suitable habitat; however, their role in stabilizing arid ecosystems may allow them to mitigate effects on some other organisms at a local level.}, }
@article {pmid35842164, year = {2022}, author = {Hirabayashi, K and Murch, SJ and Erland, LAE}, title = {Predicted impacts of climate change on wild and commercial berry habitats will have food security, conservation and agricultural implications.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {845}, number = {}, pages = {157341}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157341}, pmid = {35842164}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Food Security ; *Fruit ; Plant Extracts ; *Vaccinium macrocarpon ; }, abstract = {Climate change is now a reality and is altering ecosystems, with Canada experiencing 2-4 times the global average rate of warming. This will have a critical impact on berry cultivation and horticulture. Enhancing our understanding of how wild and cultivated berries will perform under changing climates will be essential to mitigating impacts on ecosystems, culture and food security. Our objective was to predict the impact of climate change on habitat suitability of four berry producing Vaccinium species: two species with primarily northern distributions (V. uliginosum, V. vitis-idaea), one species with a primarily southern distribution (V. oxycoccos), and the commercially cultivated V. macrocarpon. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model and the CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585 projected to 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Wild species showed a uniform northward progression and expansion of suitable habitat. Our modeling predicts that suitable growing regions for commercial cranberries are also likely to shift with some farms becoming unsuitable for the current varieties and other regions becoming more suitable for cranberry farms. Both V. macrocarpon and V. oxycoccos showed a high dependence on precipitation-associated variables. Vaccinium vitis-idaea and V. uliginosum had a greater number of variables with smaller contributions which may improve their resilience to individual climactic events. Future competition between commercial cranberry farms and wild berries in protected areas could lead to conflicts between agriculture and conservation priorities. New varieties of commercial berries are required to maintain current commercial berry farms.}, }
@article {pmid35841741, year = {2022}, author = {Pascual, LS and Segarra-Medina, C and Gómez-Cadenas, A and López-Climent, MF and Vives-Peris, V and Zandalinas, SI}, title = {Climate change-associated multifactorial stress combination: A present challenge for our ecosystems.}, journal = {Journal of plant physiology}, volume = {276}, number = {}, pages = {153764}, doi = {10.1016/j.jplph.2022.153764}, pmid = {35841741}, issn = {1618-1328}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Humans negatively influence Earth ecosystems and biodiversity causing global warming, climate change as well as man-made pollution. Recently, the number of different stress factors have increased, and when impacting simultaneously, the multiple stress conditions cause dramatic declines in plant and ecosystem health. Although much is known about how plants and ecosystems are affected by each individual stress, recent research efforts have diverted into how these biological systems respond to several of these stress conditions applied together. Studies of such "multifactorial stress combination" concept have reported a severe decrease in plant survival and microbiome biodiversity along the increasing number of factors in a consistent directional trend. In addition, these results are in concert with studies about how ecosystems and microbiota are affected by natural conditions imposed by climate change. Therefore, all this evidence should serve as an important warning in order to decrease pollutants, create strategies to deal with global warming, and increase the tolerance of plants to multiple stressful factors in combination. Here we review recent studies focused on the impact of abiotic stresses on plants, agrosystems and different ecosystems including forests and microecosystems. In addition, different strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change in ecosystems are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid35839896, year = {2022}, author = {Cristóbal, J and Vázquez-Rowe, I and Margallo, M and Ita-Nagy, D and Ziegler-Rodriguez, K and Laso, J and Ruiz-Salmón, I and Kahhat, R and Aldaco, R}, title = {Climate change mitigation potential of transitioning from open dumpsters in Peru: Evaluation of mitigation strategies in critical dumpsites.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {846}, number = {}, pages = {157295}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157295}, pmid = {35839896}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Peru ; *Refuse Disposal/methods ; Solid Waste/analysis ; }, abstract = {Waste management is a critical policy towards the reduction of environmental impacts to air, soil and water. Many Latin American countries, however, lack a correct waste management system in many cities and rural areas, leading to the accumulation of unmanaged waste in illegal or unregulated dumpsites. The case of Peru is of interest, as it hosts 5 of the 50 largest dumpsites in the world. An erratic waste management compromises climate actions for Peru to commit with the Paris Agreement, as no correct closure systems are established for these dumpsites. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to assess the contribution of the past and present biodegradable waste produced and disposed of in the most critical open dumpsters to the overall annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of Peru using the IPCC model. Thereafter, the climate change mitigation potential of possible dumpsite closure strategies based on a selection of technologies, including economic feasibility, were estimated. Results show that cumulative GHG emissions in 2018 for the 24 critical dumpsites evaluated added up to 704 kt CO2 eq. and a cumulative value of 4.4 Mt CO2 eq. in the period 2019-2028, representing over 40 % of solid waste emissions expected by 2030. Mitigation potentials for these emissions tanged from 91 to 970 kt CO2 eq. in the ten-year period depending on the mitigation strategies adopted. The costs of these strategies are also discussed and are expected to be of utility to complement Peru's waste management commitments in the frame of the Paris Agreement.}, }
@article {pmid35839649, year = {2022}, author = {Patil, R and Wei, Y and Pullar, D and Shulmeister, J}, title = {Sensitivity of streamflow patterns to river regulation and climate change and its implications for ecological and environmental management.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {319}, number = {}, pages = {115680}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115680}, pmid = {35839649}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Rivers ; Victoria ; }, abstract = {Streamflow patterns support complex ecosystem functions and services. However, the direct impacts of flow regulation and climate change on patterns of streamflow are less studied. This study aims to analyse the sensitivity of streamflow patterns to the effects of flow regulation and climate change in the Goulburn-Broken catchment in Victoria, Australia. Daily streamflow was classified into low, medium, high, and overbank flow metrics using a statistical quantile-based approach. Trends and percent changes in streamflow metrics during the 1977-2018 period were analysed, and effects of change in rainfall, regulation, and flow diversion on streamflow patterns were predicted using a generalized additive model and path analysis. Low flows and medium flows increased by 26%, and high flows and overbank flows decreased by 31% during the period between 1977 and 2018. While current river regulation and flow diversion practices would dominate future change in magnitude, duration, and frequency of the streamflow, the timing of flow metrics would be dominated by variation in rainfall. These could bring a new ecological and environmental risk to the riverine ecosystem. It is recommended to increase the duration of high flows (90-120 days) and overbank flows (10-30 days) and the frequency of overbank flows to at least once every 1-2 years during wet periods to mitigate ecological and environmental risks of climate change and flow regulation in the Goulburn-Broken catchment.}, }
@article {pmid35836961, year = {2022}, author = {Yang, T and Han, Q and Gorfine, H and Shan, X and Ren, JS}, title = {DEB-IBM for predicting climate change and anthropogenic impacts on population dynamics of hairtail Trichiurus lepturus in the East China Sea.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {coac044}, pmid = {35836961}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {The hairtail Trichiurus lepturus supports the largest fisheries in the East China Sea. The stock has fluctuated in the past few decades and this variation has been attributed to human pressures and climate change. To investigate energetics of individuals and population dynamics of the species in responses to environmental variations and fishing efforts, we have developed a DEB-IBM by coupling a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model to an individual-based model (IBM). The parameter estimation of DEB model shows an acceptable goodness of fit. The DEB-IBM was validated with histological data for a period of 38 years. High fishing pressure was largely responsible for the dramatic decline of the stock in middle 1980s. The stock recovered from early 1990s, which coincided with introduction of fishing moratorium on spawning stocks in inshore waters and substantial decrease of fishing efforts from large fisheries companies. In addition, the population average age showed a trend of slight decrease. The model successfully reproduced these observations of interannual variations in the population dynamics. The model was then implemented to simulate the effect of climate change on the population performance under greenhouse gas emission scenarios projected for 2100. It was also used to explore population responses to changing fishing mortalities. These scenario simulations have shown that the population biomass under SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 would decline by 7.5%, 16.6% and 30.1%, respectively, in 2100. The model predicts that increasing fishing mortality by 10% will cause 5.3% decline of the population biomass, whereas decrease of fishing mortality by 10% will result in 6.8% increase of the biomass. The development of the DEB-IBM provides a predictive tool to inform management decisions for sustainable exploitation of the hairtail stock in the East China Sea.}, }
@article {pmid35833710, year = {2022}, author = {Scharsack, JP and Franke, F}, title = {Temperature effects on teleost immunity in the light of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {101}, number = {4}, pages = {780-796}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.15163}, pmid = {35833710}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; *Ecosystem ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Immunity, Innate ; }, abstract = {Temperature is an important environmental modulator of teleost immune activity. Susceptibility of teleosts to temperature variation depends on the species-specific adaptive temperature range, and the activity of the teleost immune system is generally temperature-dependent. Similar to many physiological and metabolic traits of ectotherms, temperature modulates the activity of immune traits. At low temperatures, acquired immunity of many teleost species is down-modulated, and their immuno-competence mainly depends on innate immunity. At intermediate temperatures, both innate and acquired immunity are fully active and provide optimal protection, including long-lasting immunological memory. When temperatures increase and reach the upper permissive range, teleost immunity is compromised. Moreover, temperature shifts may have negative effects on teleost immune functions, in particular if shifts occur rapidly with high amplitudes. On the contrary, short-term temperature increase may help teleost immunity to fight against pathogens transiently. A major challenge to teleosts therefore is to maintain immuno-competence throughout the temperature range they are exposed to. Climate change coincides with rising temperatures, and more frequent and more extreme temperature shifts. Both are likely to influence the immuno-competence of teleosts. Nonetheless, teleosts exist in habitats that differ substantially in temperature, ranging from below zero in the Arctic's to above 40°C in warm springs, illustrating their enormous potential to adapt to different temperature regimes. The present review seeks to discuss how changes in temperature variation, induced by climate change, might influence teleost immunity.}, }
@article {pmid35831576, year = {2022}, author = {Rodrigues, M}, title = {How climate change could drive an increase in gender-based violence.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {35831576}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid35831499, year = {2022}, author = {Forzieri, G and Dakos, V and McDowell, NG and Ramdane, A and Cescatti, A}, title = {Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {608}, number = {7923}, pages = {534-539}, pmid = {35831499}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change/history/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forestry ; *Forests ; History, 21st Century ; Machine Learning ; *Models, Biological ; Satellite Imagery ; Taiga ; Temperature ; *Trees/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Water/analysis/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience)[1]. Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience[2], yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators[3-5], has changed during the period 2000-2020. We show that tropical, arid and temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, probably related to increased water limitations and climate variability. By contrast, boreal forests show divergent local patterns with an average increasing trend in resilience, probably benefiting from warming and CO2 fertilization, which may outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. These patterns emerge consistently in both managed and intact forests, corroborating the existence of common large-scale climate drivers. Reductions in resilience are statistically linked to abrupt declines in forest primary productivity, occurring in response to slow drifting towards a critical resilience threshold. Approximately 23% of intact undisturbed forests, corresponding to 3.32 Pg C of gross primary productivity, have already reached a critical threshold and are experiencing a further degradation in resilience. Together, these signals reveal a widespread decline in the capacity of forests to withstand perturbation that should be accounted for in the design of land-based mitigation and adaptation plans.}, }
@article {pmid35831324, year = {2022}, author = {Martin, AE and Neave, E and Kirby, P and Drever, CR and Johnson, CA}, title = {Multi-objective optimization can balance trade-offs among boreal caribou, biodiversity, and climate change objectives when conservation hotspots do not overlap.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {11895}, pmid = {35831324}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Reindeer ; }, abstract = {The biodiversity and climate change crises have led countries-including Canada-to commit to protect more land and inland waters and to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. Canada is also obligated to recover populations of at-risk species, including boreal caribou. Canada has the opportunity to expand its protected areas network to protect hotspots of high value for biodiversity and climate mitigation. However, co-occurrence of hotspots is rare. Here we ask: is it possible to expand the network to simultaneously protect areas important for boreal caribou, other species at risk, climate refugia, and carbon stores? We used linear programming to prioritize areas for protection based on these conservation objectives, and assessed how prioritization for multiple, competing objectives affected the outcome for each individual objective. Our multi-objective approach produced reasonably strong representation of value across objectives. Although trade-offs were required, the multi-objective outcome was almost always better than when we ignored one objective to maximize value for another, highlighting the risk of assuming that a plan based on one objective will also result in strong outcomes for others. Multi-objective optimization approaches could be used to plan for protected areas networks that address biodiversity and climate change objectives, even when hotspots do not co-occur.}, }
@article {pmid35822465, year = {2022}, author = {Dally, M and Macaluso, F and James, KA and Newman, LS and Sorensen, CJ}, title = {Addressing Climate Change in the Workplace.}, journal = {Workplace health &amp; safety}, volume = {70}, number = {7}, pages = {340}, doi = {10.1177/21650799221103767}, pmid = {35822465}, issn = {2165-0969}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Organizational Culture ; *Workplace ; }, }
@article {pmid35821589, year = {2022}, author = {Robinson, SA}, title = {Climate change and extreme events are changing the biology of Polar Regions.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {20}, pages = {5861-5864}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16309}, pmid = {35821589}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Arctic Regions ; Biodiversity ; Biology ; *Climate Change ; Cold Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Reindeer ; }, abstract = {Polar landscapes and their unique biodiversity are threatened by climate change. Wild reindeer are cultural and ecological keystone species, traversing across the northern Eurasian Arctic throughout the year (Wild reindeer in the sub-Arctic in Kuhmo, Finland. Photo: Antti Leinonen, Snowchange Cooperative. Used with permission). In contrast, Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity is found on islands in the ice (or ocean) which support unique assemblages of plants and animals (King George Island, South Shetlands; photo Andrew Netherwood. Used with permission). This VSI examines how the changing climate threatens these diverse marine and terrestrial habitats and the biodiversity that they support.}, }
@article {pmid35820378, year = {2022}, author = {Shahzad, Z and Rouached, H}, title = {Protecting plant nutrition from the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {32}, number = {13}, pages = {R725-R727}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2022.05.056}, pmid = {35820378}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crop Production ; *Crops, Agricultural ; }, abstract = {Climate change adversely affects plant nutrition, which serves as a major hurdle in the production of enough nutritious food to meet the needs of the growing global population. Here, we discuss how various climatic stressors impact nutrient homeostasis and how natural variation studies can yield resilient crop production systems to ensure future food security.}, }
@article {pmid35817104, year = {2022}, author = {Huang, S and Chen, X and Chang, C and Liu, T and Huang, Y and Zan, C and Ma, X and De Maeyer, P and Van de Voorde, T}, title = {Impacts of climate change and evapotranspiration on shrinkage of Aral Sea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {845}, number = {}, pages = {157203}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157203}, pmid = {35817104}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Lakes ; Seawater ; Water ; }, abstract = {The massive desiccation of the Aral Sea, the fourth largest lake in the world, has led to severe ecological problems, expansion of cropland was thought to be the main factor driving that shrinkage. But this study performed a long-term land cover and use change assessment for Aral Sea Basin (ASB) to show that the cropland has stopped expanding in 2000, of which the cropland in the ASB plain area has decreased significantly (-140 km[2]/year) from 2001 to 2019. By contrast, this study finds the hydrological cycle in the ASB has intensified through a spatial and temporal scale approach based on Earth observation. Specifically, there is a 7.21 % (+304.56 × 10[8] m[3]) increase in annual total precipitation and a 10.13 % (+376.21 × 10[8] m[3]) increase in annual total actual evapotranspiration (AET) for the whole ASB during 1980-2019. In particular, the total annual AET in the ASB plain area has increased by 37.81 % (+718.92 × 10[8] m[3]), which almost depletes the water that should have flowed into the Aral Sea. Therefore, the Aral Sea shrank by 5625 × 10[8] m[3] (or 42,944.32km[2]) from 1980 to 2019. Changing climate and increasing AET have accelerated the desiccation of the Aral Sea, and the expansion of cropland is no longer the main factor of that shrinkage. After more water was conserved in the ASB plain area, evapotranspiration plays a more vital role in the Aral Sea shrinkage. Reducing AET and unproductive water losses are key initiatives in future projects to save the Aral Sea. This study explores the causes of Aral Sea shrinkage from an integrated perspective of climate-land-water-ecological change across the ASB, bridging the limitations of previous studies that have focused on Aral Sea waters and subbasins.}, }
@article {pmid35813921, year = {2022}, author = {van Beest, FM and Dietz, R and Galatius, A and Kyhn, LA and Sveegaard, S and Teilmann, J}, title = {Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter-specific overlap under future climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e9083}, pmid = {35813921}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Understanding how environmental and climate change can alter habitat overlap of marine predators has great value for the management and conservation of marine ecosystems. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in habitat suitability and inter-specific overlap among three marine predators: Baltic gray seals (Halichoerus grypus), harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), and harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) under contemporary and future conditions. Location data (>200 tagged individuals) were collected in the southwestern region of the Baltic Sea; one of the fastest-warming semi-enclosed seas in the world. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to estimate changes in total area size and overlap of species-specific habitat suitability between 1997-2020 and 2091-2100. Predictor variables included environmental and climate-sensitive oceanographic conditions in the area. Sea-level rise, sea surface temperature, and salinity data were taken from representative concentration pathways [RCPs] scenarios 6.0 and 8.5 to forecast potential climate change effects. Model output suggested that habitat suitability of Baltic gray seals will decline over space and time, driven by changes in sea surface salinity and a loss of currently available haulout sites following sea-level rise in the future. A similar, although weaker, effect was observed for harbor seals, while suitability of habitat for harbor porpoises was predicted to increase slightly over space and time. Inter-specific overlap in highly suitable habitats was also predicted to increase slightly under RCP scenario 6.0 when compared to contemporary conditions, but to disappear under RCP scenario 8.5. Our study suggests that marine predators in the southwestern Baltic Sea may respond differently to future climatic conditions, leading to divergent shifts in habitat suitability that are likely to decrease inter-specific overlap over time and space. We conclude that climate change can lead to a marked redistribution of area use by marine predators in the region, which may influence local food-web dynamics and ecosystem functioning.}, }
@article {pmid35813163, year = {2022}, author = {Saeed, M and Rais, M and Ali, SM and Khosa, DN and Akram, A and Ahmed, W and Gill, S}, title = {Lab protocol for investigating impacts of climate change on frogs.}, journal = {MethodsX}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {101767}, pmid = {35813163}, issn = {2215-0161}, abstract = {We developed a method to investigate impacts of temperature (elevated) on breeding, growth and development in endemic frogs under laboratory conditions. The method provides details on housing and rearing of larvae, taking various important measurements and observing developmental deformities. The method could also be applied to rescue approach or head-start program for amphibian species experiencing climate change elsewhere in the world. • Rearing of larvae to investigate effects of temperature on larvae • Measurement of data on growth and development • Rescue/ head-start program.}, }
@article {pmid35812831, year = {2022}, author = {Kutywayo, A and Chersich, M and Naidoo, NP and Scorgie, F and Bottoman, L and Mullick, S}, title = {Climate change knowledge, concerns and experiences in secondary school learners in South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1162}, pmid = {35812831}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change poses a major threat to the future of today's youth. Globally, young people are at the forefront of climate change activism. Their ability to engage, however, depends on the level of knowledge of climate change and concern about the topic. We sought to examine levels of knowledge and concerns about climate change among youth in South Africa, and their experiences of heat exposure. Ten questions on climate change knowledge, concerns and experiences were nested within a cross-sectional survey conducted in a cluster randomised trial among 924 secondary school learners in 14 public schools in low-income Western Cape areas. Learners' mean age was 15.8 years and they were predominately female. While 72.0% of respondents knew that climate change leads to higher temperatures, only 59.7% agreed that human activity is responsible for climate change, and 58.0% believed that climate change affects human health. Two thirds (68.7%) said that climate change is a serious issue and 65.9% indicated action is needed for prevention. Few learners indicated climate change events had affected them, although many reported difficulties concentrating during hot weather (72.9%). Female learners had lower knowledge levels than male learners, but more frequent heat-related symptoms. Learners scoring high on knowledge questions expressed the most concern about climate change and had the highest heat impacts. Many youth seem unaware that climate change threatens their future. Heat-related symptoms are common, likely undermining educational performance, especially as temperatures escalate. More is needed to mainstream climate change into South African school curricula.}, }
@article {pmid35812022, year = {2022}, author = {Veitch, AM}, title = {Greener gastroenterology and hepatology: the British Society of Gastroenterology Strategy for Climate Change and Sustainability.}, journal = {Frontline gastroenterology}, volume = {13}, number = {e1}, pages = {e3-e6}, pmid = {35812022}, issn = {2041-4137}, abstract = {There is a global climate emergency, and also a global health concern related to climate change. The British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) acknowledges these issues, and supports the concerns of its members to address them. Climate change has adverse effects on gastroenterological and liver disease, and on healthcare systems. The healthcare industry, itself, is also a major contributor to greenhouse gases. BSG has developed a strategy on Climate Change and Sustainability, which encompasses all of the activities of the society, and its members: personal, professional, organisational, political, international and research.}, }
@article {pmid35811836, year = {2021}, author = {Ghosh-Jerath, S and Kapoor, R and Ghosh, U and Singh, A and Downs, S and Fanzo, J}, title = {Pathways of Climate Change Impact on Agroforestry, Food Consumption Pattern, and Dietary Diversity Among Indigenous Subsistence Farmers of Sauria Paharia Tribal Community of India: A Mixed Methods Study.}, journal = {Frontiers in sustainable food systems}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {667297}, pmid = {35811836}, issn = {2571-581X}, support = {IA/CPHI/16/1/502639/WTDBT_/DBT-Wellcome Trust India Alliance/India ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses severe threats to the social, cultural, and economic integrity of indigenous smallholder subsistence farmers, who are intricately linked with their natural ecosystems. Sauria Paharia, a vulnerable indigenous community of Jharkhand, India, are smallholder farmers facing food and nutrition insecurity and have limited resources to cope with climate change. Eighteen villages of Godda district of Jharkhand inhabited by Sauria Paharia community were randomly selected to conduct a mixed methods study. In 11 out of 18 study villages, we conducted focus group discussions (FGDs) to examine the perception of this indigenous community regarding climate change and its impact on agroforestry and dietary diversity. In all 18 villages, household and agricultural surveys were conducted to derive quantitative estimates of household food consumption patterns and agroforestry diversity, which were triangulated with the qualitative data collected through the FGDs. The FGD data revealed that the community attributed local climatic variability in the form of low and erratic rainfall with long dry spells, to reduced crop productivity, diversity and food availability from forests and waterbodies. Declining agroforestry-produce and diversity were reported to cause reduced household income and shifts from subsistence agricultural economy to migratory unskilled wage laboring leading to household food insecurity. These perceptions were supported by quantitative estimates of habitual food consumption patterns which revealed a predominance of cereals over other food items and low agroforestry diversity (Food Accessed Diversity Index of 0.21 ± 0.15). The adaptation strategies to cope with climate variability included use of climate-resilient indigenous crop varieties for farming, seed conservation and access to indigenous forest foods and weeds for consumption during adverse situations and lean periods. There were mixed views on cultivation of hybrid crops as an adaptation strategy which could impact the sustained utilization of indigenous food systems. Promoting sustainable adaptation strategies, with adequate knowledge and technology, have the potential to improve farm resilience, income, household food security and dietary diversity in this population.}, }
@article {pmid35811834, year = {2022}, author = {Powell, F and Levine, A and Ordonez-Gauger, L}, title = {Climate adaptation in the market squid fishery: fishermen responses to past variability associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles inform our understanding of adaptive capacity in the face of future climate change.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {173}, number = {1-2}, pages = {1}, pmid = {35811834}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Evaluating the strategies fishermen have used to respond to short-term climate variability in the past can help inform our understanding of the adaptive capacity of a fishery in the face of anticipated future change. Using historic fishery landings, climate records, and fishermen surveys, we document how market squid fishermen respond to high seasonal and interannual climate variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and responses to hypothetical future scenarios of low abundance and range shift. Overall, fishermen have been able to adapt to dramatic shifts in the geographic range of the fishery given their high mobility, with fishermen with larger vessels expressing a willingness to travel greater distances than those with smaller vessels. Nearly half of fishermen stated that they would switch fisheries if market squid decreased dramatically in abundance, although fishermen who were older, had been in the fishery longer, were highly dependent on squid for income, and held only squid and/or coastal pelagic finfish permits were less likely to switch to another fishery in a scenario of lower abundance. While market squid fishermen have exhibited highly adaptive behavior in the face of past climate variability, recent (and likely future) range shifts across state boundaries, as well as closures of other fisheries, constrain fishermen's choices and emphasize the need for flexibility in management systems. Our study highlights the importance of considering connectivity between fisheries and monitoring and anticipating trans-jurisdictional range shifts to facilitate adaptive fishery management.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03394-z.}, }
@article {pmid35811569, year = {2022}, author = {Renault, D and Leclerc, C and Colleu, MA and Boutet, A and Hotte, H and Colinet, H and Chown, SL and Convey, P}, title = {The rising threat of climate change for arthropods from Earth's cold regions: Taxonomic rather than native status drives species sensitivity.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {20}, pages = {5914-5927}, pmid = {35811569}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Arthropods ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Invertebrates ; }, abstract = {Polar and alpine regions are changing rapidly with global climate change. Yet, the impacts on biodiversity, especially on the invertebrate ectotherms which are dominant in these areas, remain poorly understood. Short-term extreme temperature events, which are growing in frequency, are expected to have profound impacts on high-latitude ectotherms, with native species being less resilient than their alien counterparts. Here, we examined in the laboratory the effects of short periodic exposures to thermal extremes on survival responses of seven native and two non-native invertebrates from the sub-Antarctic Islands. We found that survival of dipterans was significantly reduced under warming exposures, on average having median lethal times (LT50) of about 30 days in control conditions, which declined to about 20 days when exposed to daily short-term maxima of 24°C. Conversely, coleopterans were either not, or were less, affected by the climatic scenarios applied, with predicted LT50 as high as 65 days under the warmest condition (daily exposures at 28°C for 2 h). The native spider Myro kerguelensis was characterized by an intermediate sensitivity when subjected to short-term daily heat maxima. Our results unexpectedly revealed a taxonomic influence, with physiological sensitivity to heat differing between higher level taxa, but not between native and non-native species representing the same higher taxon. The survival of a non-native carabid beetle under the experimentally imposed conditions was very high, but similar to that of native beetles, while native and non-native flies also exhibited very similar sensitivity to warming. As dipterans are a major element of diversity of sub-Antarctic, Arctic and other cold ecosystems, such observations suggest that the increased occurrence of extreme, short-term, thermal events could lead to large-scale restructuring of key terrestrial ecosystem components both in ecosystems protected from and those exposed to the additional impacts of biological invasions.}, }
@article {pmid35811171, year = {2022}, author = {Twining, CW and Shipley, JR and Matthews, B}, title = {Climate change creates nutritional phenological mismatches.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {37}, number = {9}, pages = {736-739}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2022.06.009}, pmid = {35811171}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is creating phenological mismatches between consumers and their resources. However, while the importance of nutritional quality in ecological interactions is widely appreciated, most studies of phenological mismatch focus on energy content alone. We argue that mismatches in terms of phenology and nutrition will increase with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35810891, year = {2022}, author = {Agbossou, A and Fontodji, JK and Ayassou, K and Tchegueni, S and Segla, KN and Adjonou, K and Bokovi, Y and Ajayon, AL and Polo-Akpisso, A and Kuylenstierna, JCI and Malley, CS and Michalopoulou, E and Slater, J}, title = {Integrated climate change and air pollution mitigation assessment for Togo.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {844}, number = {}, pages = {157107}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157107}, pmid = {35810891}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis/prevention &amp; control ; Climate Change ; *Environmental Pollutants ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Togo ; }, abstract = {Togo, in west Africa, is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, but has made a negligible contribution to causing it. Togo ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017, committing to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that outline Togo's climate change mitigation commitment. Togo's capital, Lomé, as well as other areas of Togo have ambient air pollutant levels exceeding World Health Organisation guidelines for human health protection, and 91 % of Togolese households cook using solid biomass, elevating household air pollution exposure. In Togo's updated NDC, submitted in 2021, Togo acknowledges the importance and opportunity of achieving international climate change mitigation targets in ways that improve air quality and achieve health benefits for Togo's citizens. The aim of this work is to evaluate priority mitigation measures in an integrated assessment of air pollutant, Short-Lived Climate Pollutant (SLCP) and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to identify their effectiveness in simultaneously reducing air pollution and Togo's contribution to climate change. The mitigation assessment quantifies emissions for Togo and Grand Lomé from all major source sectors for historical years between 2010 and 2018, for a baseline projection to 2030 and for mitigation scenarios evaluating ten mitigation measures. The assessment estimates that Togo emitted ~21 million tonnes of GHG emissions in 2018, predominantly from the energy and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sectors. GHG emissions are projected to increase 42 % to 30 million tonnes in 2030 without implementation of mitigation policies and measures. The implementation of the ten identified priority mitigation measures could reduce GHG emissions by ~20 % in 2030 compared to the baseline, while SLCPs and air pollutants were estimated to be reduced more, with a more than 75 % reduction in black carbon emissions in 2030. This work therefore provides a clear pathway by which Togo can reduce its already small contribution to climate change while simultaneously achieving local benefits for air quality and human health in Togo and Grand Lomé.}, }
@article {pmid35810582, year = {2022}, author = {Zhou, Z and Jin, J and Yong, B and Yu, L}, title = {Quantifying the influences of climate change and human activities on the grassland in the Southwest Transboundary Basin, China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {319}, number = {}, pages = {115612}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115612}, pmid = {35810582}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; Human Activities ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The Southwest Transboundary Basin (STB), which contains a part of the Tibetan Plateau and Southwest China, covers a large area of grassland that has been experiencing significant climate change (Cc) and human activities (Ha). However, variabilities of the grasslands and respective contributions of the drivers have not been fully understood. In this study, we quantitatively investigated the influences of Cc and Ha on the grasslands from 1982 to 2015 across the STB, using residual analysis, trend analysis, and partial correlation analysis. Particularly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which is increasingly paid attention to in current studies, was included in our analysis as a critical driver of alpine grasslands. Additionally, a new method, pure climate-induced grassland pixel, which combined the coefficient of variation, was proposed to significantly improve the pixel purity with higher coefficient correlation and lower error and bias. Results show that changes in the climate play an important role in the grassland coverage of STB during 1982-1999 and 2000-2015, while Ha only had a relatively weak negative impact on grassland during 2000-2015, mainly in the Lancang River Basin. Specifically, the grasslands showed an increasing trend in 1982-1999, dominated by climate change with a contribution rate of 80.87%. Temperature had the greatest contribution, followed by VPD and precipitation in this period. On the contrary, the grasslands showed a decreasing trend in 2000-2015, dominated by both Cc and Ha with the contributions of 53.16% and 46.84%, respectively. The findings of this study provide a valuable reference for future ecological restoration in other similar alpine regions.}, }
@article {pmid35810175, year = {2022}, author = {Mundinger, C and Fleischer, T and Scheuerlein, A and Kerth, G}, title = {Global warming leads to larger bats with a faster life history pace in the long-lived Bechstein's bat (Myotis bechsteinii).}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {682}, pmid = {35810175}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {Animals ; *Chiroptera/genetics ; Female ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Longevity ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Whether species can cope with environmental change depends considerably on their life history. Bats have long lifespans and low reproductive rates which make them vulnerable to environmental changes. Global warming causes Bechstein's bats (Myotis bechsteinii) to produce larger females that face a higher mortality risk. Here, we test whether these larger females are able to offset their elevated mortality risk by adopting a faster life history. We analysed an individual-based 25-year dataset from 331 RFID-tagged wild bats and combine genetic pedigrees with data on survival, reproduction and body size. We find that size-dependent fecundity and age at first reproduction drive the observed increase in mortality. Because larger females have an earlier onset of reproduction and shorter generation times, lifetime reproductive success remains remarkably stable across individuals with different body sizes. Our study demonstrates a rapid shift to a faster pace of life in a mammal with a slow life history.}, }
@article {pmid35809736, year = {2022}, author = {Gao, X and Zhao, D}, title = {Impacts of climate change on vegetation phenology over the Great Lakes Region of Central Asia from 1982 to 2014.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {845}, number = {}, pages = {157227}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157227}, pmid = {35809736}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Seasons ; Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Dryland ecosystems in the Great Lakes Region of Central Asia (GLRCA) are highly sensitive to climate change due to the climate of spring precipitation. Although shifts in vegetation phenology have been widely attributed to rising temperature, the effects of solar radiation and drought on phenology remain largely unknown. Understanding the mechanisms of vegetation phenology response to climatic factors is essential for assessing the impact of climate change on dryland ecosystems. In this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal variations of vegetation phenology across the GLRCA using a long-term series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and then examined the response of vegetation phenology to climate change within different climate zones by combining with climate data (surface temperature, soil moisture, short-wave radiation, and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)). The results suggested that the start of growing season (SGS) and the end of growing season (EGS) were significantly earlier regionally by -0.143 days/year and -0.363 days/year, respectively. Because of changes in SGS and EGS, length of growing season (LGS) across the GLRCA was shortened at a rate of -0.442 days/yr, which was mainly attributed to advanced EGS. Additionally, SGS of vegetation was negatively correlated with surface temperature but positively correlated with soil moisture and SPEI. These results indicated that surface temperature was a major determinant of advanced spring phenology, while increased soil moisture and mitigated drought would delay spring phenology. The response of autumn phenology to surface temperature and short-wave radiation varied across different climate zones. In arid climate zone, autumn phenology was obviously advanced with the increase of surface temperature and short-wave radiation. In cold climate zone, higher surface temperature and short-wave radiation postponed autumn phenology. Meanwhile, the thermal growing season did not accurately characterize the actual vegetation growing season because GLRCA phenology was different from most of Northern Hemisphere.}, }
@article {pmid35809733, year = {2022}, author = {van Tilburg, AJ and Hudson, PF}, title = {Extreme weather events and farmer adaptation in Zeeland, the Netherlands: A European climate change case study from the Rhine delta.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {844}, number = {}, pages = {157212}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157212}, pmid = {35809733}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; *Extreme Weather ; *Farmers ; Female ; Humans ; Netherlands ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is manifest by local-scale changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, including the frequency of extreme weather events (EWEs). EWEs are associated with a myriad range of adverse environmental and societal consequences, including negative impacts to agriculture and food production. This study focuses on EWEs and their effect on adaptation strategies by potato and onion farmers in Zeeland, a Dutch coastal province in the Rhine delta that can serve as a model for other intensive agricultural landscapes in industrialized nations impacted by extreme weather events. The research approach combines quantitative trend analysis of long-term climatic data (temperature, precipitation) with a formal survey of Zeelandic farmers to statistically test four specific hypotheses regarding the frequency of EWEs in the Netherlands and farmer awareness and adaptation. Trend analyses reveal a strong (statistically significant) increase in extreme heat, a small increase in extreme rainfall and drought, and a strong decrease in frost occurrence. Survey results indicate Zeelandic farmers perceive high risk and awareness of changes to the frequency of EWEs. Many farmers have experienced financial losses from EWEs, particularly between 2017 and 2020. For extreme heat, droughts, and frost, the proportion of farmers that incurred financial damages annually is statistically correlated to the actual occurrence of EWEs. Farmers who incurred more financial losses between 2000 and 2020 due to heat and lack of frost had a higher risk perception of these extremes. Further, almost all farmers have already implemented one or more adaptation strategies. A third of surveyed farmers reduced or stopped with potato and onion cultivation in response to climate change and EWEs. Awareness, exposure to, and risk perception of EWEs contribute to adaptation support by farmers. The high perceived risk of climate change and EWEs among respondents and the high incidence of financial losses from extremes in the past two decades highlights the importance of adaptation in the agricultural sector, including in temperate regions where growing seasons are expanding. Study results support the current 'Rural Development Program' and future 'National Strategic Plan' policies in the Netherlands, both part of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), that provides accessibility to adaptation measures for farmers to avoid financial loss.}, }
@article {pmid35809589, year = {2022}, author = {Massazza, A and Teyton, A and Charlson, F and Benmarhnia, T and Augustinavicius, JL}, title = {Quantitative methods for climate change and mental health research: current trends and future directions.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {7}, pages = {e613-e627}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00120-6}, pmid = {35809589}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Forecasting ; *Mental Health ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {The quantitative literature on climate change and mental health is growing rapidly. However, the methodological quality of the evidence is heterogeneous, and there is scope for methodological improvement and innovation. The first section of this Personal View provides a snapshot of current methodological trends and issues in the quantitative literature on climate change and mental health, drawing on literature collected through a previous scoping review. The second part of this Personal View outlines opportunities for methodological innovation concerning the assessment of the relationship between climate change and mental health. We then highlight possible methodological innovations in intervention research and in the measurement of climate change and mental health-related variables. This section draws upon methods from public mental health, environmental epidemiology, and other fields. The objective is not to provide a detailed description of different methodological techniques, but rather to highlight opportunities to use diverse methods, collaborate across disciplines, and inspire methodological innovation. The reader will be referred to practical guidance on different methods when available. We hope this Personal View will constitute a roadmap and launching pad for methodological innovation for researchers interested in investigating a rapidly growing area of research.}, }
@article {pmid35808918, year = {2022}, author = {Mayer, A and Silver, WL}, title = {The climate change mitigation potential of annual grasslands under future climates.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {32}, number = {8}, pages = {e2705}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2705}, pmid = {35808918}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Grassland ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Carbon Dioxide ; Soil ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Composted manure and green waste amendments have been shown to increase net carbon (C) sequestration in rangeland soils and have been proposed as a means to help lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the effect of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in rangelands is not well understood, and the viability of climate change mitigation strategies under future conditions is even less certain. We used a process-based biogeochemical model (DayCent) at a daily time step to explore the long-term effects of potential future climate changes on C and greenhouse gas dynamics in annual grassland ecosystems. We then used the model to explore how the same ecosystems might respond to climate change following compost amendments to soils and determined the long-term viability of net SOC sequestration under changing climates. We simulated net primary productivity (NPP), SOC, and greenhouse gas fluxes across seven California annual grasslands with and without compost amendments. We drove the DayCent simulations with field data and with site-specific daily climate data from two Earth system models (CanESM2 and HadGEM-ES) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) through 2100. NPP and SOC stocks in unamended and amended ecosystems were surprisingly insensitive to projected climate changes. A one-time amendment of compost to rangeland acted as a slow-release organic fertilizer and increased NPP by up to 390-814 kg C ha[-1] year[-1] across sites. The amendment effect on NPP was not sensitive to Earth system model or emissions scenario and endured through the end of the century. Net SOC sequestration amounted to 1.96 ± 0.02 Mg C ha[-1] relative to unamended soils at the maximum amendment effect. Averaged across sites and scenarios, SOC sequestration peaked 22 ± 1 years after amendment and declined but remained positive throughout the century. Though compost stimulated nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions, the cumulative net emissions (in CO2 equivalents) due to compost were far less than the amount of SOC sequestered. Compost amendments resulted in a net climate benefit of 69.6 ± 0.5 Tg CO2 e 20 ± 1 years after amendment if applied to similar ecosystems across the state, amounting to 39% of California's rangeland. These results suggest that the biogeochemical benefits of a single amendment of compost to rangelands in California are insensitive to climate change and could contribute to decadal-scale climate change mitigation goals alongside emissions reductions.}, }
@article {pmid35806238, year = {2022}, author = {Marques, I and Ribeiro-Barros, A and Ramalho, JC}, title = {Editorial: Tropical Plant Responses to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {23}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {35806238}, issn = {1422-0067}, support = {the Scientific Employment Stimulus - Individual Call (CEEC Individual) - 2021.01107.CEECIND/CP1689//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; PTDC/ASP-AGR/31257/2017//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; UIDB/00239/2020 (CEF)//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; No 727934 (project BreedCAFS)//European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {The climate crisis is pushing the planet's tropical plants towards their limits [...].}, }
@article {pmid35805652, year = {2022}, author = {Holmes, TJ and Holt, A and English, DQ}, title = {Progress of Local Health Department Planning Actions for Climate Change: Perspectives from California, USA.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {35805652}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. ; *Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; Humans ; Local Government ; Public Health/methods ; Regional Health Planning ; United States ; }, abstract = {Public health departments are on the frontlines of protecting vulnerable groups and working to eliminate health disparities through prevention interventions, disease surveillance and community education. Exploration of the roles national, state and local health departments (LHDs) play in advancing climate change planning and actions to protect public health is a developing arena of research. This paper presents insights from local public health departments in California, USA on how they addressed the barriers to climate adaptation planning with support from the California Department of Public Health's Office of Health Equity Climate Change and Health Equity Section (OHE), which administers the California Building Resilience Against Climate Effects Project (CalBRACE). With support from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative (CRSCI), CalBRACE initiated an adaptation project to seed climate planning and actions in county health departments. In this study, we compared the barriers and strategies of twenty-two urban and rural LHDs and explored potential options for climate change adaptation in the public health framework. Using key informant interviews and document reviews, the results showed how engagement with CalBRACE's Local Health Department Partnership on Climate Change influenced the county departments' ability to overcome barriers to adaptation through the diversification of funding sources, the leveraging strategic collaborations, extensive public education and communication campaigns, and the development of political capital and champions. The lessons learned and recommendations from this research may provide pathways and practices for national, state and local level health departments to collaborate in developing protocols and integrating systems to respond to health-related climate change impacts, adaptation and implementation.}, }
@article {pmid35805514, year = {2022}, author = {Hanigan, IC and Chaston, TB}, title = {Climate Change, Drought and Rural Suicide in New South Wales, Australia: Future Impact Scenario Projections to 2099.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {35805514}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Australia ; Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; New South Wales/epidemiology ; Rural Population ; *Suicide ; }, abstract = {Mental health problems are associated with droughts, and suicide is one of the most tragic outcomes. We estimated the numbers of suicides attributable to drought under possible climate change scenarios for the future years until 2099, based on the historical baseline period 1970-2007. Drought and rural suicide data from the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) were analyzed for the baseline data period. Three global climate models and two representative concentration pathways were used to assess the range of potential future outcomes. Drought-related suicides increased among rural men aged 10-29 and 30-49 yrs in all modelled climate change scenarios. Rural males aged over 50 yrs and young rural females (10-29) showed no increased suicide risk, whereas decreased suicide rates were predicted for rural women of 30-49 and 50-plus years of age, suggesting resilience (according to the baseline historical relationship in those population sub-groups). No association between suicide and drought was identified in urban populations in the baseline data. Australian droughts are expected to increase in duration and intensity as climate change progresses. Hence, estimates of impacts, such as increased rural suicide rates, can inform mitigation and adaptation strategies that will help prepare communities for the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35805430, year = {2022}, author = {Miralles-Quirós, MM and Miralles-Quirós, JL}, title = {Decarbonization and the Benefits of Tackling Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {35805430}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Since the industrial revolution, humans have increasingly influenced the Earth's temperature and climate [...].}, }
@article {pmid35805374, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, Y and Song, T and Fan, J and Man, W and Liu, M and Zhao, Y and Zheng, H and Liu, Y and Li, C and Song, J and Yang, X and Du, J}, title = {Land Use and Climate Change Altered the Ecological Quality in the Luanhe River Basin.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {35805374}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Beijing ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Monitoring and assessing ecological quality (EQ) can help to understand the status and dynamics of the local ecosystem. Moreover, land use and climate change increase uncertainty in the ecosystem. The Luanhe River Basin (LHRB) is critical to the ecological security of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. To support ecosystem protection in the LHRB, we evaluated the EQ from 2001 to 2020 based on the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) with the Google Earth Engine (GEE). Then, we introduced the coefficient of variation, Theil-Sen analysis, and Mann-Kendall test to quantify the variation and trend of the EQ. The results showed that the EQ in LHRB was relatively good, with 61.08% of the basin rated as 'good' or 'excellent'. The spatial distribution of EQ was low in the north and high in the middle, with strong improvement in the north and serious degradation in the south. The average EQ ranged from 0.58 to 0.64, showing a significant increasing trend. Furthermore, we found that the expansion of construction land has caused degradation of the EQ, whereas climate change likely improved the EQ in the upper and middle reaches of the LHRB. The results could help in understanding the state and trend of the eco-environment in the LHRB and support decision-making in land-use management and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35804227, year = {2022}, author = {Balli, O and Caliskan, H}, title = {Environmental impact assessments of different auxiliary power units used for commercial aircraft by using global warming potential approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {58}, pages = {87334-87346}, pmid = {35804227}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Vehicle Emissions/analysis ; Aircraft ; Environment ; }, abstract = {In this paper, environmental impact analysis is applied to the various auxiliary power units (APUs) used for commercial aircraft in air transportation sector. The exhaust emissions of different auxiliary power units used in commercial aircraft are investigated. The emission index (EI), global warming potential (GWP) rate, global warming potential index (GWPI), environmental impact (EnI) rate, environmental impact index (EnII), environmental damage cost (EDC) rate, and environmental damage cost index (EDCI) of the exhaust emissions of APUs are computed. The GTCP36-300 model APU has the lowest total emission rate (TER) with 1.333 kg/h, the GTC85-129 model APU has the maximum total environmental index (TEI) by 24.719 g/kg-fuel, the GTCP36-300 model APU has the best total global warming potential value with 2709.176 kg/h CO2_eqv, the TSCP700 model APU has the worst global warming potential index rate as 52.481 kg/kWh CO2_eqv, the best total environmental damage cost rate is calculated to be 3.717 €/h for GTC85-72 model APU, the TSCP700 model APU has the highest environmental damage cost index with 0.130 €/kWh, the maximum total environmental impact is computed to be 5656.378 mPts/h for GTCP660 model APU, and the best total environmental impact index is determined for the GTC85-72 model APU.}, }
@article {pmid35803652, year = {2022}, author = {Cadet, MJ}, title = {Integrating Climate Change Concepts into Advanced Practice Registered Nurses Curricula with the Application of the National Organization of Nurse Practitioner Faculties Competencies.}, journal = {Journal of professional nursing : official journal of the American Association of Colleges of Nursing}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {157-165}, doi = {10.1016/j.profnurs.2022.05.006}, pmid = {35803652}, issn = {1532-8481}, mesh = {*Advanced Practice Nursing/education ; Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Faculty ; Humans ; *Nurse Practitioners/education ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been labeled one of the most significant threats to patient health. Advanced practice registered nurses must acquire adequate preparatory education to care for patients during climate change. They would benefit from implementing climate change concepts to provide safe and quality care for patients. This article aims to discuss integrating climate change concepts into advanced practice nurses curricula by applying the National Organization of Nurse Practitioner Faculties' competencies.}, }
@article {pmid35803434, year = {2022}, author = {Watson, R and Kundzewicz, ZW and Borrell-Damián, L}, title = {Covid-19, and the climate change and biodiversity emergencies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {844}, number = {}, pages = {157188}, pmid = {35803434}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Emergencies ; Humans ; Pandemics ; }, abstract = {This paper addresses the question, can lessons be learnt by studying the responses to COVID-19 and the human-induced climate change and loss of biodiversity emergencies? It is well recognized that to successfully address each of these issues requires sound scientific knowledge based on strong national and international research programs, cooperation between the research community and policy makers, national, regional and global evidence-based policies and coordinated actions, an informed and receptive public, and political will. A key question is how research and innovation can most effectively inform decision-making leading to cost-effective and socially acceptable action on pandemics, climate change and loss of biodiversity. This paper first describes how the COVID-19 pandemic has been addressed compared to the loss of biodiversity, and climate change, and then considers the use of scientific knowledge for policy-making and communication with the public. The paper then discusses human health and the natural environment as a global responsibility, and concludes on the need for an enhanced virtuous set of interactions between science, economy, politics and people.}, }
@article {pmid35802986, year = {2022}, author = {Biddlestone, M and Azevedo, F and van der Linden, S}, title = {Climate of conspiracy: A meta-analysis of the consequences of belief in conspiracy theories about climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {46}, number = {}, pages = {101390}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2022.101390}, pmid = {35802986}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Intention ; Trust/psychology ; }, abstract = {Despite widespread scientific consensus on climate change, conspiracy theories about its causes and consequences are flourishing. In response, psychological research has started to investigate the consequences of espousing conspiracy beliefs about climate change. Although some scholars maintain that the evidence for a causal link between belief in conspiracy theories and behavior remains elusive, others have argued that climate change conspiracy theories undermine pro-climate action. To shed further light on this question across a range of outcome measures, we present a meta-analysis of 22 independent samples (Nparticipants = 20,765). Overall, we find clear evidence that climate conspiracy beliefs have moderate-to-large negative correlations with not only acceptance of (climate) science, trust, and pro-environmental concern, but also with behavioural intentions and policy support. Most of these effects were not moderated by design (experimental vs. correlational), political ideology, or prior conspiracy beliefs. However, we note publication bias and in several cases sufficient experimental data were lacking. Implications for addressing conspiracy theories about climate change are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid35802686, year = {2022}, author = {Giddens, J and Kobayashi, DR and Mukai, GNM and Asher, J and Birkeland, C and Fitchett, M and Hixon, MA and Hutchinson, M and Mundy, BC and O'Malley, JM and Sabater, M and Scott, M and Stahl, J and Toonen, R and Trianni, M and Woodworth-Jefcoats, PA and Wren, JLK and Nelson, M}, title = {Assessing the vulnerability of marine life to climate change in the Pacific Islands region.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {7}, pages = {e0270930}, pmid = {35802686}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Coral Reefs ; *Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Pacific Islands ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Our changing climate poses growing challenges for effective management of marine life, ocean ecosystems, and human communities. Which species are most vulnerable to climate change, and where should management focus efforts to reduce these risks? To address these questions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Climate Science Strategy called for vulnerability assessments in each of NOAA's ocean regions. The Pacific Islands Vulnerability Assessment (PIVA) project assessed the susceptibility of 83 marine species to the impacts of climate change projected to 2055. In a standard Rapid Vulnerability Assessment framework, this project applied expert knowledge, literature review, and climate projection models to synthesize the best available science towards answering these questions. Here we: (1) provide a relative climate vulnerability ranking across species; (2) identify key attributes and factors that drive vulnerability; and (3) identify critical data gaps in understanding climate change impacts to marine life. The invertebrate group was ranked most vulnerable and pelagic and coastal groups not associated with coral reefs were ranked least vulnerable. Sea surface temperature, ocean acidification, and oxygen concentration were the main exposure drivers of vulnerability. Early Life History Survival and Settlement Requirements was the most data deficient of the sensitivity attributes considered in the assessment. The sensitivity of many coral reef fishes ranged between Low and Moderate, which is likely underestimated given that reef species depend on a biogenic habitat that is extremely threatened by climate change. The standard assessment methodology originally developed in the Northeast US, did not capture the additional complexity of the Pacific region, such as the diversity, varied horizontal and vertical distributions, extent of coral reef habitats, the degree of dependence on vulnerable habitat, and wide range of taxa, including data-poor species. Within these limitations, this project identified research needs to sustain marine life in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid35800612, year = {2022}, author = {Liu, Y and Shen, X and Wang, Y and Zhang, J and Ma, R and Lu, X and Jiang, M}, title = {Spatiotemporal Variation in Aboveground Biomass and Its Response to Climate Change in the Marsh of Sanjiang Plain.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {920086}, pmid = {35800612}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The Sanjiang Plain has the greatest concentration of freshwater marshes in China. Marshes in this area play a key role in adjusting the regional carbon cycle. As an important quality parameter of marsh ecosystems, vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB) is an important index for evaluating carbon stocks and carbon sequestration function. Due to a lack of in situ and long-term AGB records, the temporal and spatial changes in AGB and their contributing factors in the marsh of Sanjiang Plain remain unclear. Based on the measured AGB, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and climate data, this study investigated the spatiotemporal changes in marsh AGB and the effects of climate variation on marsh AGB in the Sanjiang Plain from 2000 to 2020. Results showed that the marsh AGB density and annual maximum NDVI (NDVImax) had a strong correlation, and the AGB density could be accurately calculated from a power function equation between NDVImax and AGB density (AGB density = 643.57 × NDVI max 4 . 2474). According to the function equation, we found that the AGB density significantly increased at a rate of 2.47 g·C/m[2]/a during 2000-2020 in marshes of Sanjiang Plain, with the long-term average AGB density of about 282.05 g·C/m[2]. Spatially, the largest increasing trends of AGB were located in the north of the Sanjiang Plain, and decreasing trends were mainly found in the southeast of the study area. Regarding climate impacts, the increase in precipitation in winter could decrease the marsh AGB, and increased temperatures in July contributed to the increase in the marsh AGB in the Sanjiang Plain. This study demonstrated an effective approach for accurately estimating the marsh AGB in the Sanjiang Plain using ground-measured AGB and NDVI data. Moreover, our results highlight the importance of including monthly climate properties in modeling AGB in the marshes of the Sanjiang Plain.}, }
@article {pmid35798356, year = {2022}, author = {Mahase, E}, title = {New legislation places duty on NHS to tackle climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {378}, number = {}, pages = {o1681}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o1681}, pmid = {35798356}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Smoking ; State Medicine ; *Tobacco Smoke Pollution ; }, }
@article {pmid35798107, year = {2022}, author = {Khojasteh, D and Davani, E and Shamsipour, A and Haghani, M and Glamore, W}, title = {Climate change and COVID-19: Interdisciplinary perspectives from two global crises.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {844}, number = {}, pages = {157142}, pmid = {35798107}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*COVID-19/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Policy ; Humans ; Pandemics ; }, abstract = {The repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change - two major current global crises - are far-reaching, the parallels between the two are striking, and their influence on one another are significant. Based on the wealth of evidence that has emerged from the scientific literature during the first two years of the pandemic, this study argues that these two global crises require holistic multisectoral mitigation strategies. Despite being different in nature, neither crisis can be effectively mitigated without considering their interdependencies. Herein, significant interactions between these two crises are highlighted and discussed. Major implications related to the economy, energy, technology, environment, food systems and agriculture sector, health systems, policy, management, and communities are detailed via a review of existing joint literature. Based on these outcomes, practical recommendations for future research and management are provided. While the joint timing of these crises has created a global conundrum, the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated opportunities and lessons for devising sustainable recovery plans in relation to the climate crisis. The findings indicated that governments should work collaboratively to develop durable and adjustable strategies in line with long-term, global decarbonisation targets, promote renewable energy resources, integrate climate change into environmental policies, prioritise climate-smart agriculture and local food systems, and ensure public and ecosystem health. Further, differences in geographic distributions of climate change and COVID-19 related death cases revealed that these crises pose different threats to different parts of the world. These learnings provide insights to address the climate emergency - and potential future global problems with similar characteristics - if international countries act urgently and collectively.}, }
@article {pmid35795018, year = {2022}, author = {Troia, MJ and Perkin, JS}, title = {Can fisheries bioenergetics modelling refine spatially explicit assessments of climate change vulnerability?.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {coac035}, pmid = {35795018}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Rising water temperature under climate change is affecting the physiology, population dynamics and geographic distribution of freshwater taxa. We propose a novel application of individual-based bioenergetics modelling (BEM) to assess the physiological impacts of warming on freshwater fishes across broad spatial extents. We test this approach using the Guadalupe bass (Micropterus treculii), a species of conservation and recreational significance that is endemic to central TX, USA. We projected historical-to-future changes (middle 20th century to end of 21st century) in daily bioenergetics of individual fish across 7872 stream reaches and compared this output to changes in reach occupancy derived from traditional species distribution modelling (SDM). SDMs project an 8.7% to 52.1% decrease in reach occupancy, depending on model parameterizations and climate change scenarios. Persistence is projected in the central Edwards Plateau region, whereas extirpations are projected for the warmer southeastern region. BEM projected a median 79.3% and 143.2% increase in somatic growth of age-1 Guadalupe bass across historically occupied reaches under moderate and severe climate change scenarios, respectively. Higher end-of-year body size under future climate was caused by a longer growing season. Future scenarios exploring suppressed or enhanced prey consumption suggest that small changes in prey availability will have relatively greater effects on growth than forecasted changes in temperature. Projected growth was geographically discordant with SDM-based habitat suitability, suggesting that SDMs do not accurately reflect fundamental thermal niche dimensions. Our assessment suggests that for locations where the species persists, Guadalupe bass may benefit from warming, although realized consumption gains will depend on seasonal, spatially varying changes in prey availability and other biotic and abiotic factors. More generally, we demonstrate that uniting species-specific BEM with spatially explicit climate change projections can elucidate the physiological impacts of climate change-including seasonal variation-on freshwater fishes across broad geographic extents to complement traditional SDM.}, }
@article {pmid35794334, year = {2022}, author = {Shah, MI and Khan, Z and Moise, ML and Abbas, S}, title = {Tourism adaptability amid the climate change and air pollution in BRICS: a method of moments quantile regression approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {57}, pages = {86744-86758}, pmid = {35794334}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Humans ; *Economic Development ; Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Tourism ; *Air Pollution ; China ; South Africa ; Brazil ; India ; Russia ; }, abstract = {The main objective of this paper is to look at how environmental degradation in the form of climate change and air pollution affect international tourism for five countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) over the years 1990-2019. Other independent variables include information and communication technology (ICT) and democracy. We also look at the role of environmental regulation to see the validity of porter hypothesis in the tourism sector. To achieve this objective, we apply a novel method of moments quantile regression approach as well as a robust causality technique. The result shows that at lower and medium quantile, CO2 emission has positive impact on tourism while at higher quantile, CO2 emission has negative but insignificant effect on tourism in BRICS countries. The result for PM2.5 is uniform across all the quantiles, showing the negative effect on tourism. ICT and human capital positively affect the tourism while democracy has negative impact on the tourism sector of the BRICS nations. The result also validated the Porter hypothesis for tourism sector. We conclude that tourism industry stakeholders and the environmental policymakers must work together to integrate tourism policies with BRICS countries' environmental conservation policies as part of the transition to sustainable tourism industry.}, }
@article {pmid35794117, year = {2022}, author = {Tamura, Y and Osawa, T and Tabuchi, K and Yamasaki, K and Niiyama, T and Sudo, S and Ishigooka, Y and Yoshioka, A and Takada, MB}, title = {Estimating plant-insect interactions under climate change with limited data.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {10554}, pmid = {35794117}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Heteroptera ; Insecta ; *Oryza ; Plants ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change may disrupt species-species interactions via phenological changes in one or both species. To predict and evaluate the influence of climate change on these interactions, long-term monitoring and sampling over large spatial areas are required; however, funding and labor constraints limit data collection. In this study, we predict and evaluate the plant-insect interactions with limited data sets. We examined plant-insect interaction using observational data for development of the crop plant rice (Oryza sativa) and an effective accumulated temperature (EAT) model of two mirid bugs (Stenotus rubrovittatus and Trigonotylus caelestialium). We combined 11 years of records monitoring rice phenology and the predicted phenology of mirid bugs using spatially-explicit EAT models based on both spatially and temporally high resolutions temperature data sets, then evaluated their accuracy using actual pest damage records. Our results showed that the predicted interactions between rice and mirid bugs explained rice damage to some degree. Our approach may apply predicting changes to plant-insect interactions under climate change. As such, combining plant monitoring records and theoretical predictions of insect phenology may be effective for predicting species-species interactions when available data are limited.}, }
@article {pmid35792214, year = {2022}, author = {Andrade, M and Soares, AMVM and Solé, M and Pereira, E and Freitas, R}, title = {Do climate change related factors modify the response of Mytilus galloprovincialis to lanthanum? The case of temperature rise.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {307}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {135577}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2022.135577}, pmid = {35792214}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Animals ; Antioxidants/metabolism ; Biomarkers/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Lanthanum/metabolism ; *Mytilus/metabolism ; Oxidative Stress ; Temperature ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Most of the electric and electronic waste is not recycled and the release of its components into the environment is expected, including the rare-earth element Lanthanum (La), which has already been reported in the aquatic systems. Furthermore, considering climate change factors such as the predicted increase in temperature, the susceptibility of aquatic organisms to these rare elements may be modified. In light of this, the present study aimed to evaluate the relevance of temperature on La-derived effects in the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. Several biomarkers and La bioaccumulation were assessed in organisms exposed to 0 (control) and 10 μg/L of La at two distinct temperatures (17 and 22 °C) for 28 days. Results showed that temperature did not influence La bioaccumulation in mussels. However, exposure to La resulted in a decreased metabolic capacity and an enhancement of biotransformation enzymes activity, as a possible defense behavior of mussels to avoid La accumulation and toxicity. Nevertheless, antioxidant defenses were also inhibited leading to increased lipid peroxidation (LPO) levels. Warming alone seemed to cause a metabolic shutdown seen as reduced enzyme activities and protein carbonylation (PC) levels. Simultaneous La exposure and temperature rise caused combined effects on mussels, as they accused metabolic depression, biotransformation defenses activation, antioxidant capacity reduction, and higher cellular damage. Overall, this study highlights the need to perform environmental risk assessment studies, by considering emerging contaminants exposures at relevant concentrations, both at present and forecasted climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid35791979, year = {2022}, author = {Mendola, P and Ha, S}, title = {Beyond the infant in your arms: effects of climate change last for generations.}, journal = {Fertility and sterility}, volume = {118}, number = {2}, pages = {224-229}, doi = {10.1016/j.fertnstert.2022.06.007}, pmid = {35791979}, issn = {1556-5653}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Global Health ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Infant ; Pregnancy ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. In addition to short-term reproductive health impacts, climate-related events will influence the risks of long-term and intergenerational mortality and morbidity for both birthing parents and offspring. As climate conditions continue to deteriorate in future generations, less healthy parents will give birth to less healthy offspring, who themselves will experience increased risk of reproductive outcomes. This intergenerational process causes a repeating cycle of poor parental preconception health, gestational complications, and poor offspring health, which leads to suboptimal preconception health among those offspring when they reach reproductive age. Because our ongoing efforts mostly focus on helping families achieve and maintain a healthy pregnancy, a critical need to think beyond the infant in our arms and consider the long-term implications of climate change exists. Such efforts may involve policy strengthening efforts to reduce emissions, further engaging health care providers as active advocates, ensuring equitable and sustainable mitigation and adaptable strategies, and conducting more research that yields actionable data to guide policy efforts, especially in regions and populations most affected by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35791636, year = {2022}, author = {James, A}, title = {Comment on 'The tip of the iceberg? Climate change, detention settings, and mental health'.}, journal = {The International journal of social psychiatry}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {207640221110428}, doi = {10.1177/00207640221110428}, pmid = {35791636}, issn = {1741-2854}, }
@article {pmid35791634, year = {2022}, author = {Smith, A and Ogunwale, A and Liebrenz, M}, title = {The tip of the iceberg? Climate change, detention settings and mental health.}, journal = {The International journal of social psychiatry}, volume = {68}, number = {7}, pages = {1303-1306}, doi = {10.1177/00207640221106690}, pmid = {35791634}, issn = {1741-2854}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Disorders/epidemiology ; Mental Health ; *Refugees ; }, }
@article {pmid35790844, year = {2022}, author = {Wei, S and Li, K and Yang, Y and Wang, C and Liu, C and Zhang, J}, title = {Comprehensive climatic suitability evaluation of peanut in Huang-Huai-Hai region under the background of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {11350}, pmid = {35790844}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Arachis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The climate changes influence the growing suitability of peanut, an important oil crop. Climatic suitability evaluation in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, the main peanut producing region of China, which can optimize peanut planting structure and provide basis for increasing output. In this study, the temperature, precipitation, sunshine and comprehensive suitability models were established by using the climatic suitability function in different growth periods of peanut. In this study, the climate suitability function of peanut in different growth periods was used to establish the temperature, precipitation, sunshine and comprehensive suitability model. Combined with the meteorological data after Anusplin interpolation, the spatial distribution and chronological change of peanut climate suitability were analyzed. The results show that with climate change, the overall climate becomes warmer and drier and the temperature and precipitation suitability increase, but the sunshine suitability decreases. Based on the comprehensive suitability model, the suitability evaluation results are divided into four levels: the most suitable, suitable, sub-suitable and unsuitable. Among them, the most suitable peanut planting areas in the Huang-Huai-Hai region are concentrated in the west of the Haihe River Basin and the Huaihe River Basin. The data from the next 30 years show that both the most suitable and suitable areas have been expanded. Through the verification of yield correlation analysis and spatial distribution of disaster frequency, it can be seen that the evaluation results have high accuracy, which can be used to guide and optimize peanut production practices.}, }
@article {pmid35790744, year = {2022}, author = {Cinner, JE and Caldwell, IR and Thiault, L and Ben, J and Blanchard, JL and Coll, M and Diedrich, A and Eddy, TD and Everett, JD and Folberth, C and Gascuel, D and Guiet, J and Gurney, GG and Heneghan, RF and Jägermeyr, J and Jiddawi, N and Lahari, R and Kuange, J and Liu, W and Maury, O and Müller, C and Novaglio, C and Palacios-Abrantes, J and Petrik, CM and Rabearisoa, A and Tittensor, DP and Wamukota, A and Pollnac, R}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {3530}, pmid = {35790744}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; Indonesia ; Madagascar ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.}, }
@article {pmid35787921, year = {2022}, author = {Martin, L and Zhang, Y and Mustieles, V and Souter, I and Petrozza, J and Messerlian, C}, title = {Reproductive medicine in the face of climate change: a call for prevention through leadership.}, journal = {Fertility and sterility}, volume = {118}, number = {2}, pages = {239-246}, doi = {10.1016/j.fertnstert.2022.06.010}, pmid = {35787921}, issn = {1556-5653}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Leadership ; Public Health ; *Reproductive Medicine ; }, abstract = {Climate change has led to a multitude of ecological disruptions and downstream reproductive health consequences that impair our reproductive capacity and, in turn, harm the health and survival of future generations. Atmospheric changes, driven by anthropogenic emissions, expose global populations to droughts, heat waves, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events-posing major threats to public health and exacerbating environmental health disparities. Existing evidence demonstrates the potential for climate-driven events to impact reproductive health outcomes, yet very few studies have explored this relationship. Recently, the American Society for Reproductive Medicine, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, and the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics released position statements regarding reproductive health and environmental exposures. Unfortunately, such initiatives have yielded little action within the health care system. To address this stagnation, health care workers must meld research findings into actionable preventive medicine strategies and transition to a more action-oriented approach to address the climate crisis. The objective of this article is to elucidate the urgency of the climate crisis in relation to reproductive health and push the health care workers to recognize their intrinsic opportunity as leaders in climate action at local, state, national, and international levels. We call on health care organizations and health care workers to leverage their inherent positions as climate action leaders to increase climate resilience and mitigate climate-related adverse reproductive health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid35786303, year = {2022}, author = {Alvero, R}, title = {The third degree: climate change and reproductive health.}, journal = {Fertility and sterility}, volume = {118}, number = {2}, pages = {213-214}, doi = {10.1016/j.fertnstert.2022.06.014}, pmid = {35786303}, issn = {1556-5653}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Infertility ; Public Health ; Reproductive Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a public health emergency, yet the medical community has been inconsistent in its understanding and engagement of the crisis. Reproductive endocrinology and infertility and reproductive biology will be impacted broadly by the changing climate. This Views and Reviews hopes to enlist reproductive endocrinology and infertility specialists to first understand the issues and then take action to support mitigation and accommodation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid35785997, year = {2023}, author = {Patrick, R and Snell, T and Gunasiri, H and Garad, R and Meadows, G and Enticott, J}, title = {Prevalence and determinants of mental health related to climate change in Australia.}, journal = {The Australian and New Zealand journal of psychiatry}, volume = {57}, number = {5}, pages = {710-724}, doi = {10.1177/00048674221107872}, pmid = {35785997}, issn = {1440-1614}, mesh = {Adult ; Humans ; Female ; Adolescent ; *Mental Health ; Australia/epidemiology ; Prevalence ; Climate Change ; Anxiety Disorders/epidemiology ; *Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/psychology ; }, abstract = {AIMS: The climate emergency will likely prove this century's greatest threat to public health within which mental health effects need consideration. While studies consistently show the majority of Australians are very concerned about the impacts of climate change, there is limited evidence from nation-wide research linking climate change with mental health burden in sub-populations. This study aimed to understand the impact of climate change on mental health in the Australian population and identify populations who are most at risk of climate-related mental health burden.<br><br>METHODS: A nation-wide Australian survey conducted between August and November 2020 of adults was approximately representative across sex, age, location, state and area disadvantage. Two-stage recruitment involved unrestricted self-selected community sample through mainstream and social media (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;4428) and purposeful sampling using an online panel (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;1055).<br><br>RESULTS: Most Australians report having a direct experience of a climate change-related event. Young people are experiencing significant rates of eco-anxiety. One in four people with direct experience of a climate change-related event met post-traumatic stress disorder screening criteria. People who have not had a direct experience are showing symptoms of pre-trauma, particularly in younger age groups and women. There were 9.37% (503/5370) of respondents with responses indicating significant eco-anxiety, 15.68% (370/2359) with pre-traumatic stress and 25.60% (727/2840) with post-traumatic stress disorder. Multivariable regressions confirmed that younger people are more affected by eco-anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (pre- or post-trauma); women are more affected by post-traumatic stress disorder (pre- or post-trauma) and those from more disadvantaged regions are more affected by eco-anxiety.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Australia is facing a potential mental health crisis. Individuals with and without direct experience of climate change are reporting significant mental health impacts, with younger age groups being disproportionately affected. There are key roles for clinicians and other health professionals in responding to and preventing climate-related mental health burden.}, }
@article {pmid35784028, year = {2022}, author = {Estevo, CA and Stralberg, D and Nielsen, SE and Bayne, E}, title = {Topographic and vegetation drivers of thermal heterogeneity along the boreal-grassland transition zone in western Canada: Implications for climate change refugia.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {e9008}, pmid = {35784028}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change refugia are areas that are relatively buffered from contemporary climate change and may be important safe havens for wildlife and plants under anthropogenic climate change. Topographic variation is an important driver of thermal heterogeneity, but it is limited in relatively flat landscapes, such as the boreal plain and prairie regions of western Canada. Topographic variation within this region is mostly restricted to river valleys and hill systems, and their effects on local climates are not well documented. We sought to quantify thermal heterogeneity as a function of topography and vegetation cover within major valleys and hill systems across the boreal-grassland transition zone. Using iButton data loggers, we monitored local temperature at four hills and 12 river valley systems that comprised a wide range of habitats and ecosystems in Alberta, Canada (N = 240), between 2014 and 2020. We then modeled monthly temperature by season as a function of topography and different vegetation cover types using general linear mixed effect models. Summer maximum temperatures (T max) varied nearly 6°C across the elevation gradient sampled. Local summer mean (T mean) and maximum (T max) temperatures on steep, north-facing slopes (i.e., low levels of potential solar radiation) were up to 0.70°C and 2.90°C cooler than highly exposed areas, respectively. T max in incised valleys was between 0.26 and 0.28°C cooler than other landforms, whereas areas with greater terrain roughness experienced maximum temperatures that were up to 1.62°C cooler. We also found that forest cover buffered temperatures locally, with coniferous and mixedwood forests decreasing summer T mean from 0.23 to 0.72°C and increasing winter T min by up to 2°C, relative to non-forested areas. Spatial predictions of temperatures from iButton data loggers were similar to a gridded climate product (ClimateNA), but the difference between them increased with potential solar radiation, vegetation cover, and terrain roughness. Species that can track their climate niche may be able to compensate for regional climate warming through local migrations to cooler microsites. Topographic and vegetation characteristics that are related to cooler local climates should be considered in the evaluation of future climate change impacts and to identify potential refugia from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35783931, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, Y and Shen, X and Tong, S and Zhang, M and Jiang, M and Lu, X}, title = {Aboveground Biomass of Wetland Vegetation Under Climate Change in the Western Songnen Plain.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {941689}, pmid = {35783931}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of aboveground biomass (AGB) is crucial for investigating the wetland ecosystem carbon cycle. In this paper, we explored the spatiotemporal change of aboveground biomass and its response to climate change in a marsh wetland of western Songen Plain by using field measured AGB data and vegetation index derived from MODIS datasets. The results showed that the AGB could be established by the power function between measured AGB density and the annual maximum NDVI (NDVImax) of marsh: Y = 302.06 × NDVImax [1.9817]. The averaged AGB of marshes showed a significant increase of 2.04 g⋅C/m[2]/a, with an average AGB value of about 111.01 g⋅C/m[2] over the entire western Songnen Plain. For the influence of precipitation and temperature, we found that the annual mean temperature had a smaller effect on the distribution of marsh AGB than that of the total precipitation in the western Songnen Plain. Increased precipitation in summer and autumn would increase AGB by promoting marshes' vegetation growth. In addition, we found that the minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperatures (Tmax) have an asymmetric effect on marsh AGB on the western Songnen Plain: warming Tmax has a significant impact on AGB of marsh vegetation, while warming at night can non-significantly increase the AGB of marsh wetland. This research is expected to provide theoretical guidance for the restoration, protection, and adaptive management of wetland vegetation in the western Songnen Plain.}, }
@article {pmid35783928, year = {2022}, author = {Campoy, JG and Sobral, M and Carro, B and Lema, M and Barreiro, R and Retuerto, R}, title = {Epigenetic and Phenotypic Responses to Experimental Climate Change of Native and Invasive Carpobrotus edulis.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {888391}, pmid = {35783928}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Despite the recent discoveries on how DNA methylation could help plants to adapt to changing environments, the relationship between epigenetics and climate change or invasion in new areas is still poorly known. Here, we investigated, through a field experiment, how the new expected climate scenarios for Southern Europe, i.e., increased temperature and decreased rainfall, might affect global DNA methylation in relation to phenotypic variation in individuals of clonal plant, Carpobrotus edulis, from its native (Southern African) and invaded (northwestern Iberian Peninsula) area. Our results showed that changes in temperature and rainfall induced phenotypic but not global DNA methylation differences among plants, and the climatic effects were similar for plants coming from the native or invaded areas. The individuals from the Iberian Peninsula showed higher levels of global methylation than their native counterparts from South Africa. We also observed differences between natives and invasive phenotypes in traits related to the pattern of biomass partitioning and to the strategies for water uptake and use and found an epigenetic contribution to phenotypic changes in some leaf traits, especially on the nitrogen isotopic composition. We conclude that the increased temperature and decreased rainfall projected for Southern Europe during the course of the twenty-first century may foster phenotypic changes in C. edulis, possibly endowing this species with a higher ability to successful cope the rapid environmental shifts. The epigenetic and phenotypic divergence that we observed between native and invasive plants suggests an intraspecific functional variation during the process of invasion. This result could indicate that phenotypic plasticity and global DNA methylation are related to the colonization of new habitats. Our findings reinforce the importance of epigenetic plasticity on rapid adaptation of invasive clonal plants.}, }
@article {pmid35782009, year = {2022}, author = {Yang, H and Li, J and Milne, RI and Tao, W and Wang, Y and Miao, J and Wang, W and Ju, T and Tso, S and Luo, J and Mao, K}, title = {Genomic insights into the genotype-environment mismatch and conservation units of a Qinghai-Tibet Plateau endemic cypress under climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {919-933}, pmid = {35782009}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Habitat loss induced by climate warming is a major threat to biodiversity, particularly to threatened species. Understanding the genetic diversity and distributional responses to climate change of threatened species is critical to facilitate their conservation and management. Cupressus gigantea, a rare conifer found in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) at 3000-3600 m.a.s.l., is famous for its largest specimen, the King Cypress, which is >55 m tall. Here, we obtained transcriptome data from 96 samples of 10 populations covering its whole distribution and used these data to characterize genetic diversity, identify conservation units, and elucidate genomic vulnerability to future climate change. After filtering, we identified 145,336, 26,103, and 2833 single nucleotide polymorphisms in the whole, putatively neutral, and putatively adaptive datasets, respectively. Based on the whole and putatively neutral datasets, we found that populations from the Yalu Tsangpo River (YTR) and Nyang River (NR) catchments could be defined as separate management units (MUs), due to distinct genetic clusters and demographic histories. Results of gradient forest models suggest that all populations of C. gigantea may be at risk due to the high expected rate of climate change, and the NR MU had a higher risk than the YTR MU. This study deepens our understanding of the complex evolutionary history and population structure of threatened tree species in extreme environments, such as dry river valleys above 3000 m.a.s.l. in the QTP, and provides insights into their susceptibility to global climate change and potential for adaptive responses.}, }
@article {pmid35778380, year = {2022}, author = {Ouyang, Z and Sciusco, P and Jiao, T and Feron, S and Lei, C and Li, F and John, R and Fan, P and Li, X and Williams, CA and Chen, G and Wang, C and Chen, J}, title = {Albedo changes caused by future urbanization contribute to global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {3800}, pmid = {35778380}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Climate ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {The replacement of natural lands with urban structures has multiple environmental consequences, yet little is known about the magnitude and extent of albedo-induced warming contributions from urbanization at the global scale in the past and future. Here, we apply an empirical approach to quantify the climate effects of past urbanization and future urbanization projected under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find an albedo-induced warming effect of urbanization for both the past and the projected futures under three illustrative scenarios. The albedo decease from urbanization in 2018 relative to 2001 has yielded a 100-year average annual global warming of 0.00014 [0.00008, 0.00021] °C. Without proper mitigation, future urbanization in 2050 relative to 2018 and that in 2100 relative to 2018 under the intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) would yield a 100-year average warming effect of 0.00107 [0.00057,0.00179] °C and 0.00152 [0.00078,0.00259] °C, respectively, through altering the Earth's albedo.}, }
@article {pmid35777560, year = {2022}, author = {Ji, L and Tanunchai, B and Wahdan, SFM and Schädler, M and Purahong, W}, title = {Future climate change enhances the complexity of plastisphere microbial co-occurrence networks, but does not significantly affect the community assembly.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {844}, number = {}, pages = {157016}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157016}, pmid = {35777560}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Bacteria ; *Climate Change ; Fungi ; Microbial Consortia ; *Microbiota ; Plastics ; Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Biobased and biodegradable plastics have been intensively used in agriculture as mulching films. They provide a distinctive habitat for soil microbes, yet much less is known about the community assembly and interactions of plastisphere microbiota in soils under future climate change. For the first time, we explored the relative importance of ecological processes and the co-occurrence networks of plastic-associated microbes under ambient and future climates. The drift primarily dominated the community assembly of bacteria and fungi after 180D and 328D incubation in both climate regimes. The neutral community model prediction indicated that the migration rate of the plastisphere community in the later decay phase was lower than that in the early decay phase, contributing to the generation of the specific niches. Furthermore, future climate promoted the complexity and modularity of plastic-associated microbial networks: more competition and cooperation were observed in bacteria (or inter-kingdom) and fungi under future climate conditions, respectively. Overall, our findings strengthened the understanding of ecological processes and interplay of plastisphere microbiota during plastic biodegradation in soils under ambient and future climate regimes.}, }
@article {pmid35774820, year = {2022}, author = {Rayapuram, N and De Zelicourt, A and Satbhai, SB and Arteaga-Vazquez, MA}, title = {Editorial: Plant Epigenetics and Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {955159}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2022.955159}, pmid = {35774820}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid35774367, year = {2022}, author = {Novikova, LY and Ozerski, PV}, title = {Forecast for the zone of viticulture in European Russia under climate change.}, journal = {Vavilovskii zhurnal genetiki i selektsii}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {264-271}, doi = {10.18699/VJGB-22-33}, pmid = {35774367}, issn = {2500-0462}, abstract = {Climate warming has turned out to be a significant factor in viticulture and winemaking in all grape-growing areas of the world. Many countries consider the advance of viticulture to the north and to mountainous areas as a possible way to adapt to warming. The factors limiting the zone of viticulture in Russia have been identified by Soviet scientist F.F. Davitaya in 1948, and they are still relevant. They are the sum of active temperatures above 10 °C (ΣT10 > 2500 °C), mean of absolute minimum temperatures (Tmin > -35 °C), length of the frost-free period (Lff < 150 days), and hydrothermal coefficient (0.5 < HTC <2.5). The values of these limiting factors in the present-day zone of commercial viticulture (ZCV) correspond to the ranges defined by F.F. Davitaya, with the exception of Tmin, which in the modern ZCV in European Russia is above -26 °C everywhere. The objective of this work was to assess the possibility of moving the boundaries of the ZCV to the north under the existing and predicted climate conditions in European Russia. The 1980-2019 daily data from 150 weather stations of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring were used to calculate mean long-term values, trends and forecasts for 2050 for the ZCV limiting factors and locate the points lying in the range acceptable for viticulture. The QGIS program was applied to plot the points on the European Russia map and mark the terminal latitude. Versions with Tmin > -26 °C and Tmin > -35 °C were considered. On average for European Russia, in 1980-2019, there was an increase in ΣT10 , Tmin, and Lff and a decrease in HTC. However, in the same period, Tmin showed a tendency toward decreasing at a number of points at latitudes lower than 55° N. The increase in heat supply during the growing season in European Russia implies a possibility of expanding the ZCV northward, beyond the present-day terminal latitude of 46.6° N, to 51.8° N under the existing conditions, and up to 60.7° N by 2050. In addition, even under the current conditions viticulture is possible in the area of Kaliningrad (54° N, 20° E). Using extra protective measures in winters not colder than -35 °C would make it possible to grow grapes at up to 53.3° N under the current conditions and at up to 60.7° N under the prognosticated ones. At the same time, a possible decrease in the minimum winter temperature at the south of European Russia will require additional protective measures in winter, while an increase in the aridity of the climate on the northwest coast of the Caspian Sea will reduce the area under non-irrigated vineyards.}, }
@article {pmid35771923, year = {2022}, author = {Voosen, P}, title = {Hidden carbon layer sparked ancient bout of global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {377}, number = {6601}, pages = {12-13}, doi = {10.1126/science.add6990}, pmid = {35771923}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Deep carbon exhumed by volcanic rift between Greenland and Europe implicated in 56-million-year-old hothouse.}, }
@article {pmid35770617, year = {2022}, author = {Chai, L and Zhou, Y and Wang, X}, title = {Impact of global warming on regional cycling of mercury and persistent organic pollutants on the Tibetan Plateau: current progress and future prospects.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {1616-1630}, doi = {10.1039/d1em00550b}, pmid = {35770617}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {*Mercury/analysis ; Global Warming ; Persistent Organic Pollutants ; Environmental Monitoring ; Ecosystem ; Tibet ; *Environmental Pollutants/analysis ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Global warming profoundly affects not only mountainous and polar environments, but also the global and regional cycling of pollutants. Mercury (Hg) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have global transport capacity and are regulated by the Minamata Convention and Stockholm Convention, respectively. Since the beginning of this century, understanding of the origin and fate of Hg and POPs on the Tibetan Plateau (TP, also known as the third pole) has been deepening. In this paper, the existing literature is reviewed to comprehensively understand the atmospheric transport, atmospheric deposition, cumulative transformation and accumulation of Hg and POPs on the TP region under the background of global warming. The biogeochemical cycle of both Hg and POPs has the following environmental characteristics: (1) the Indian summer monsoon and westerly winds carry Hg and POPs inland to the TP; (2) the cold trapping effect causes Hg and POPs to be deposited on the TP by dry and wet deposition, making glaciers, permafrost, and snow the key sinks of Hg and POPs; (3) Hg and POPs can subsequently be released due to the melting of glaciers and permafrost; (4) bioaccumulation and biomagnification of Hg and POPs have been examined in the aquatic food chain; (5) ice cores and lake cores preserve the impacts of both regional emissions and glacial melting on Hg and POP migration. This implies that comprehensive models will be needed to evaluate the fate and toxicity of Hg and POPs on larger spatial and longer temporal scales to forecast their projected tendencies under diverse climate scenarios. Future policies and regulations should address the disrupted repercussions of inclusive CC such as weather extremes, floods and storms, and soil sustainable desertification on the fate of Hg and POPs. The present findings advocate the strengthening of the cross-national programs aimed at the elimination of Hg and POPs in polar (Arctic, Antarctic and TP) and certain mountainous (the Himalaya, Rocky Mountains, and Alps) ecosystems for better understanding the impacts of global warming on the accumulation of Hg/POPs in cold and remote areas.}, }
@article {pmid35769847, year = {2022}, author = {Hussain, SSA and Dhiman, RC}, title = {Distribution Expansion of Dengue Vectors and Climate Change in India.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {e2021GH000477}, pmid = {35769847}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {India has witnessed a five-fold increase in dengue incidence in the past decade. However, the nation-wide distribution of dengue vectors, and the impacts of climate change are not known. In this study, species distribution modeling was used to predict the baseline and future distribution of Aedine vectors in India on the basis of biologically relevant climatic indicators. Known occurrences of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database and previous literature. Bio-climatic variables were used as the potential predictors of vector distribution. After eliminating collinear and low contributing predictors, the baseline and future prevalence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus was determined, under three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), using the MaxEnt species distribution model. Aedes aegypti was found prevalent in most parts of the southern peninsula, the eastern coastline, north eastern states and the northern plains. In contrast, Aedes albopictus has localized distribution along the eastern and western coastlines, north eastern states and in the lower Himalayas. Under future scenarios of climate change, Aedes aegypti is projected to expand into unsuitable regions of the Thar desert, whereas Aedes albopictus is projected to expand to the upper and trans Himalaya regions of the north. Overall, the results provide a reliable assessment of vectors prevalence in most parts of the country that can be used to guide surveillance efforts, despite minor disagreements with dengue incidence in Rajasthan and the north east, possibly due to behavioral practices and sampling efforts.}, }
@article {pmid35765035, year = {2022}, author = {Tagwireyi, P and Ndebele, M and Chikurunhe, W}, title = {Climate change diminishes the potential habitat of the bont tick (Amblyomma hebraeum): evidence from Mashonaland Central Province, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {237}, pmid = {35765035}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {*Amblyomma ; Animals ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors ; Ecosystem ; Zimbabwe ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Understanding the response of vector habitats to climate change is essential for vector management. Increasingly, there is fear that climate change may cause vectors to be more important for animal husbandry in the future. Therefore, knowledge about the current and future spatial distribution of vectors, including ticks (Ixodida), is progressively becoming more critical to animal disease control.<br><br>METHODS: Our study produced present (2018) and future (2050) bont tick (Amblyomma hebraeum) niche models for Mashonaland Central Province, Zimbabwe. Specifically, our approach used the Ensemble algorithm in Biomod2 package in R 3.4.4 with a suite of physical and anthropogenic covariates against the tick's presence-only location data obtained from cattle dipping facilities.<br><br>RESULTS: Our models showed that currently (the year 2018) the bont tick potentially occurs in 17,008&#xa0;km[2], which is 60% of Mashonaland Central Province. However, the models showed that in the future (the year 2050), the bont tick will occur in 13,323&#xa0;km[2], which is 47% of Mashonaland Central Province. Thus, the models predicted an ~&#xa0;13% reduction in the potential habitat, about 3685&#xa0;km[2] of the study area. Temperature, elevation and rainfall were the most important variables explaining the present and future potential habitat of the bont tick.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Results of our study are essential in informing programmes that seek to control the bont tick in Mashonaland Central Province, Zimbabwe and similar environments.}, }
@article {pmid35764606, year = {2022}, author = {Satoh, Y and Yoshimura, K and Pokhrel, Y and Kim, H and Shiogama, H and Yokohata, T and Hanasaki, N and Wada, Y and Burek, P and Byers, E and Schmied, HM and Gerten, D and Ostberg, S and Gosling, SN and Boulange, JES and Oki, T}, title = {The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {3287}, pmid = {35764606}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Hydrology ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.}, }
@article {pmid35762234, year = {2022}, author = {Salthammer, T and Zhao, J and Schieweck, A and Uhde, E and Hussein, T and Antretter, F and Künzel, H and Pazold, M and Radon, J and Birmili, W}, title = {A holistic modeling framework for estimating the influence of climate change on indoor air quality.}, journal = {Indoor air}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {e13039}, doi = {10.1111/ina.13039}, pmid = {35762234}, issn = {1600-0668}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution, Indoor/analysis ; Climate Change ; Humidity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The IPCC 2021 report predicts rising global temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events in the future, which will have different effects on the regional climate and concentrations of ambient air pollutants. Consequently, changes in heat and mass transfer between the inside and outside of buildings will also have an increasing impact on indoor air quality. It is therefore surprising that indoor spaces and occupant well-being still play a subordinate role in the studies of climate change. To increase awareness for this topic, the Indoor Air Quality Climate Change (IAQCC) model system was developed, which allows short and long-term predictions of the indoor climate with respect to outdoor conditions. The IAQCC is a holistic model that combines different scenarios in the form of submodels: building physics, indoor emissions, chemical-physical reaction and transformation, mold growth, and indoor exposure. IAQCC allows simulation of indoor gas and particle concentrations with outdoor influences, indoor materials and activity emissions, particle deposition and coagulation, gas reactions, and SVOC partitioning. These key processes are fundamentally linked to temperature and relative humidity. With the aid of the building physics model, the indoor temperature and humidity, and pollutant transport in building zones can be simulated. The exposure model refers to the calculated concentrations and provides evaluations of indoor thermal comfort and exposure to gaseous, particulate, and microbial pollutants.}, }
@article {pmid35760622, year = {2023}, author = {González Svatetz, CA}, title = {Nutrition, cardiovascular disease risk and climate change.}, journal = {Clinica e investigacion en arteriosclerosis : publicacion oficial de la Sociedad Espanola de Arteriosclerosis}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, pages = {101-103}, doi = {10.1016/j.arteri.2022.06.001}, pmid = {35760622}, issn = {1578-1879}, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid35760112, year = {2022}, author = {Bhattarai, U and Devkota, LP and Marahatta, S and Shrestha, D and Maraseni, T}, title = {How will hydro-energy generation of the Nepalese Himalaya vary in the future? A climate change perspective.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {214}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {113746}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.113746}, pmid = {35760112}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Nepal ; *Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Despite being one of the proven clean-energy technologies, hydroelectricity is losing attention in global research. Hydroelectricity is extremely important for countries possessing the required water resources, already heavily reliant on it and those lacking the financial capacity to invest in other expensive energy technologies. This study assessed the possible impact of climate change (CC) on hydro-energy generation in the Nepalese Himalaya (possessing eight peaks out of 14 over 8000 m) with a tremendous hydropower potential (∼50,000 MW). A planned 1200 MW storage type Budhigandaki Hydroelectricity Project is taken as a case. We estimated the energy generation for the baseline as well as 10 CC scenarios considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 at monthly, seasonal, and annual temporal scales for the mid-century. Results show that energy generation is highly dependent on the reservoir operating rule. The average annual energy generation is expected to vary within -5 to +12% of the base case in the mid-century, with significant variations across the months. We also infer that designing hydro-projects based on ensembled climate values could lead to a "rosy" but less probable and risky picture of energy generation in the future. Therefore, assessment of a wide spectrum of plausible CC scenarios are recommended. Storage type projects with provision of flexible operating rules considering finer temporal resolution and allocation to competing users (in case of multipurpose projects) supported by appropriate policies are desirable for climate resiliency. Complementing the existing energy generation mix with other technologies in areas where hydroelectricity is expected to undergo adverse impacts of CC is warranted for attaining future energy security and environmental safeguarding. Possibility of additional energy due to CC is a strong motivation for this region to focus on hydroelectricity development in the future.}, }
@article {pmid35759851, year = {2022}, author = {Zhu, Z and Wang, K and Lei, M and Li, X and Li, X and Jiang, L and Gao, X and Li, S and Liang, J}, title = {Identification of priority areas for water ecosystem services by a techno-economic, social and climate change modeling framework.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {221}, number = {}, pages = {118766}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2022.118766}, pmid = {35759851}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Hydrology ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Water scarcity and quality deterioration often occur in economically developing regions, particularly during crises related to climate change or increasing human activities. The assignment of priority areas is considered a suitable strategy for stakeholders to mitigate water crises and cope with water stress. However, most studies focused on protecting water bodies in priority areas and did not consider the hydrological/hydrochemical/hydroecological interaction between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We divided a watershed into manageable areas to select priority areas for multiple water-related ecosystem services (WES-priority areas), considering the aquatic-terrestrial interactions to predict the effects of climate change and human activities. The proposed novelty framework couples the soil and water assessment tool and maximum entropy models with a systematic conservation planning tool. It uses the gross domestic product as the economic cost to assess dynamic changes and social-environmental driving forces. A case study is conducted in the Xiangjiang River basin, a modified watershed of the main tributary of the Yangtze River, China. Results revealed that most of the WES-priority areas were located in the southern and southeastern regions of the upper reaches in all climatic scenarios. The conservation efficiency of the WES-priority areas decreased from 1.264 to 0.867 in 50 years, indicating that the level of protection declined as climate change accelerated. The precipitation was positively correlated with the WES-priority area selection in all climate scenarios. The temperature was only negatively correlated with the WES-priority areas when it exceeded 20 °C, and this effect became more pronounced as the temperature increased. The topographic factors had the most crucial impacts on the upstream priority areas selection. The water flow regulation service played a leading role in identifying WES-priority areas in the middle reaches because the priority areas' distribution here was closely related to the water yield, and its proportion decreased with the acceleration of global warming. The number of WES-priority areas was relatively low in the lower reaches. It was positively associated with the gross domestic product and the amount of built-up land. The proposed framework for WES-priority areas identification enables a sound trade-off between environmental protection and economic development.}, }
@article {pmid35759500, year = {2022}, author = {Jacobson, MJ and Pickett, J and Gascoigne, AL and Fleitmann, D and Elton, H}, title = {Settlement, environment, and climate change in SW Anatolia: Dynamics of regional variation and the end of Antiquity.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {e0270295}, pmid = {35759500}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Archaeology/history ; *Climate Change ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {This paper develops a regional dataset of change at 381 settlements for Lycia-Pamphylia in southwest Anatolia (Turkey) from volume 8 of the Tabula Imperii Byzantini-a compilation of historical toponyms and archaeological evidence. This region is rich in archaeological remains and high-quality paleo-climatic and -environmental archives. Our archaeological synthesis enables direct comparison of these datasets to discuss current hypotheses of climate impacts on historical societies. A Roman Climatic Optimum, characterized by warmer and wetter conditions, facilitating Roman expansion in the 1st-2nd centuries CE cannot be supported here, as Early Byzantine settlement did not benefit from enhanced precipitation in the 4th-6th centuries CE as often supposed. However, widespread settlement decline in a period with challenging archaeological chronologies (c. 550-650 CE) was likely caused by a "perfect storm" of environmental, climatic, seismic, pathogenic and socio-economic factors, though a shift to drier conditions from c. 460 CE appears to have preceded other factors by at least a century.}, }
@article {pmid35759491, year = {2022}, author = {Russell, M and Olson, MB and Love, BA}, title = {Surf smelt accelerate usage of endogenous energy reserves under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {e0270491}, pmid = {35759491}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Larva ; *Osmeriformes ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Surf smelt (Hypomesus pretiosus) are ecologically critical forage fish in the North Pacific ecosystem. As obligate beach spawners, surf smelt embryos are exposed to wide-ranging marine and terrestrial environmental conditions. Despite this fact, very few studies have assessed surf smelt tolerance to climate stressors. The purpose of this study was to examine the interactive effects of climate co-stressors ocean warming and acidification on the energy demands of embryonic and larval surf smelt. Surf smelt embryos and larvae were collected from spawning beaches and placed into treatment basins under three temperature treatments (13°C, 15°C, and 18°C) and two pCO2 treatments (i.e. ocean acidification) of approximately 900 and 1900 μatm. Increased temperature significantly decreased yolk size in surf smelt embryos and larvae. Embryo yolk sacs in high temperature treatments were on average 7.3% smaller than embryo yolk sacs from ambient temperature water. Larval yolk and oil globules mirrored this trend. Larval yolk sacs in the high temperature treatment were 45.8% smaller and oil globules 31.9% smaller compared to larvae in ambient temperature. There was also a significant positive effect of acidification on embryo yolk size, indicating embryos used less maternally-provisioned energy under acidification scenarios. There was no significant effect of either temperature or acidification on embryo heartrates. These results indicate that near-future climate change scenarios may impact the energy demands of developing surf smelt, leading to potential effects on surf smelt fitness and contributing to variability in adult recruitment.}, }
@article {pmid35759407, year = {2022}, author = {Di Santo, V}, title = {EcoPhysioMechanics: Integrating energetics and biomechanics to understand fish locomotion under climate change.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {62}, number = {3}, pages = {711-720}, pmid = {35759407}, issn = {1557-7023}, abstract = {Ecological physiologists and biomechanists have been broadly investigating swimming performance in a diversity of fishes, however the connection between form, function and energetics of locomotion has been rarely evaluated in the same system and under climate change scenarios. In this perspective I argue that working within the framework of 'EcoPhysioMechanics', i.e., integrating energetics and biomechanics tools, to measure locomotor performance and behavior under different abiotic factors, improves our understanding of the mechanisms, limits and costs of movement. To demonstrate how ecophysiomechanics can be applied to locomotor studies, I outline how linking biomechanics and physiology allows us to understand how fishes may modulate their movement to achieve high speeds or reduce the costs of locomotion. I also discuss how the framework is necessary to quantify swimming capacity under climate change scenarios. Finally, I discuss current dearth of integrative studies and gaps in empirical datasets that are necessary to understand fish swimming under changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid35758982, year = {2022}, author = {Budziszewska, M and Jonsson, SE}, title = {Talking about climate change and eco-anxiety in psychotherapy: A qualitative analysis of patients' experiences.}, journal = {Psychotherapy (Chicago, Ill.)}, volume = {59}, number = {4}, pages = {606-615}, doi = {10.1037/pst0000449}, pmid = {35758982}, issn = {1939-1536}, support = {//University of Warsaw; Faculty of Psychology/ ; //Ministry of Science and Higher Education/ ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Psychotherapy/methods ; Psychotherapeutic Processes ; Emotions ; Anxiety/therapy ; }, abstract = {Citizens' worries about climate change are often realistic and legitimate. Simultaneously, these worries can also become a source of distress so severe as to impair everyday functioning and prompt someone to seek psychotherapy. These emergent phenomena are often referred to as "climate anxiety" or "climate depression" by the popular culture and by patients themselves. Psychotherapists around the world report seeing more and more patients who report that they are experiencing distress due to climate change. This article documents a study that involved engaging 10 Swedish adults who sought help for climate change-related emotional distress in in-depth conversations about their psychotherapeutic experience. This was followed by analyzing accounts of psychotherapeutic processes to understand patients' experiences and outcomes. Interviews were examined with interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). Therapists' knowledge about climate change and competence in coping with it, validation of climate change-related emotions, and learning to manage these emotions were salient aspects of psychotherapy from the patients' perspective. Connecting psychotherapy to personal values and action orientation, resulting in an enhanced sense of meaning and sense of community, was also considered important. In conclusion, based on participants' experience, we offer practical guidance for practitioners. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).}, }
@article {pmid35757885, year = {2022}, author = {Ricciardi, L and D'Odorico, P and Galli, N and Chiarelli, DD and Rulli, MC}, title = {Hydrological implications of large-scale afforestation in tropical biomes for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {377}, number = {1857}, pages = {20210391}, pmid = {35757885}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Trees ; Tropical Climate ; Water ; }, abstract = {Rising interest in large-scale afforestation and reforestation as a strategy for climate change mitigation has recently motivated research efforts aiming at the identification of areas suitable for the plantation of trees. An often-overlooked aspect of agroforestry projects for carbon sequestration is their impact on water resources. It is often unclear to what extent the establishment of forest vegetation would be limited by water availability, whether it would engender competition with other local water uses or induce water scarcity. Here we use global water models to study the hydrologic constraints and impacts of afforestation in tropical biomes. We find that 36% of total suitable and available afforestation areas are in areas where the rain alone can meet just up to the 40% of total plant water requirement. Planting trees will substantially increase water scarcity and possible dispossession (green water grab) especially in dryland regions of Africa and Oceania. Moreover, the combination of tree restoration and irrigation expansion to rainfed agricultural areas is expected to further exacerbate water scarcity, with about half of the global suitable areas for tree restoration experiencing water scarcity at least 7 months per year. Thus, the unavailability of water can overall limit climate change adaptation strategies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.}, }
@article {pmid35756885, year = {2022}, author = {Desthieux, G and Joerin, F}, title = {Urban planning in Swiss cities has been slow to think about climate change: why and what to do?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {692-713}, pmid = {35756885}, issn = {2190-6483}, abstract = {Recent years have been marked by a strong popular and political mobilization around climate change. However, to what extent does this mobilization lead to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or the vulnerability of our society to the effects of climate change? This question is at the heart of the research presented, which sought to identify the barriers and levers to the integration of climate issues into urban planning of Swiss cities. The literature review first situates the integration of climate change in Swiss cities in relation to the evolution of practices at the international level. It emerged that Swiss cities have generally been late in integrating climate issues into their public policies. Practices still focus strongly on energy policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but adaptation measures in urban planning are poorly implemented. In order to better understand the reasons for this slow and late integration of climate change into urban planning of Swiss cities, a survey was conducted among more than 200 professionals. It showed that the evolution of practices is generally driven by "pioneering" actors who are strongly mobilized by personal values and who use specialized and scientific sources of information. Finally, two focus groups with representative professionals were organized in order to deepen the barriers and levers observed and to formulate sound recommendations for integrating the climate issue into urban planning. Two lines of action emerged: prioritization (strengthening legal frameworks and organizational structures) and support (training and involvement of climate experts at all stages of urban planning).}, }
@article {pmid35756150, year = {2022}, author = {Alvares, CA and Sentelhas, PC and Dias, HB}, title = {Southeastern Brazil inland tropicalization: Köppen system applied for detecting climate change throughout 100 years of meteorological observed data.}, journal = {Theoretical and applied climatology}, volume = {149}, number = {3-4}, pages = {1431-1450}, pmid = {35756150}, issn = {0177-798X}, abstract = {Many regions around the world are facing climate changes, with substantial increase in air temperature over the past decades, which is mainly related to continental and global warming forced by the higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study were to use the Köppen climate classification to detect local climate change based on a historical series of 100 years and to assess if such change is related to those that are occurring in other spatial scales as a likely consequence of increasing GHG. This paper brings a content full of innovative results. The study area presented an average annual air temperature increase by 0.9 °C between 1917 and 2016, rising from 21.4 °C for the first climatological normal (1917-1946) to 22.3 °C for the last one (1987-2016). Furthermore, in the summer months, the temperature rose from 24.5 to 25.3 °C, and in the winter months, such increase was from 17.1 (1917-1946) to 18.3 °C (1987-2016). Our findings showed the subtropical conditions (Cfa in Köppen's classification) in the study area persisted from the beginning of the analysis (1917-1946) until the climatological normal of 1979-2008, with a clear tendency of tropicalization after that with a change in the climate type of Piracicaba from subtropical to tropical, which can now be classified as tropical with dry winter (Aw climate type). The local average air temperature showed concordances with the long-term air temperature anomalies from regional, continental, and global scales, indicating that all of them may be linked with increasing GHG emissions, since well-defined long-term linear relationships (r [2] = 0.99) were observed between continental and global average air temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 concentration observed at the NOAA Lab in Mauna Loa in the last 59 years. While the local and regional forcing effects remain to be fully unraveled, our study provided a valid and strong scientific sound evidence that climate change occurred in Piracicaba, southeastern Brazil, in the last 100 years.}, }
@article {pmid35756105, year = {2022}, author = {Orkodjo, TP and Kranjac-Berisavijevic, G and Abagale, FK}, title = {Impact of climate change on future precipitation amounts, seasonal distribution, and streamflow in the Omo-Gibe basin, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e09711}, pmid = {35756105}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study projected the impact of climate change on the amount of precipitation, seasonal distribution, and streamflow of the Omo-gibe basin, Ethiopia. Projections of climate change using the results of high-resolution multimodal ensembles from fifteen regional climate models (RCMs) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Reduction Experiment (CORDEX)-Africa were statistically downscaled and bias-adjusted using a quantile mapping approach. Precipitation and temperature were projected under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 emission scenarios. Climate and streamflow projections from a mean ensemble of RCMs in the near future (2025-2050), medium future (2051-2075), and far future (2076-2100) were compared to the reference (1989-2019). Mann-Kendall (MK) trend testing was used to determine if a change is statistically significant and to detect trends in temperature, precipitation, and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used to project the impact of climate change on the streamflow. According to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the emission scenarios predicted significant positive (rising) temperature, but significant negative (decreasing) precipitation and streamflow. The average temperature projected increases range from 2.40-3.34 °C under the RCP 4.5 emission scenarios and 2.6-4.54 °C under the RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Annual average precipitation projected decreases range between 10.77-13.11% under the RCP 4.5 emission scenario, while the RCP 8.5 emission scenarios decrease range between 11.10-13.86% in the rainy summer season (June-August) and the irregular rain season (March-May). Projected annual average streamflow decrease range between 7.08-10.99% under the RCP 4.5 emission scenarios and 10.98-12.88% under the RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Results on projected temperature increases and reductions in precipitation and streamflow will help to develop effective adaptation measures to reduce the ongoing impacts of climate change and draw up long-term water resource management plans in the river basin. Both the results and the multidisciplinary approach will be vital to irrigation and hydropower project planners.}, }
@article {pmid35755674, year = {2022}, author = {Egea, JA and Caro, M and García-Brunton, J and Gambín, J and Egea, J and Ruiz, D}, title = {Agroclimatic Metrics for the Main Stone Fruit Producing Areas in Spain in Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios: Implications From an Adaptive Point of View.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {842628}, pmid = {35755674}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Stone fruit production has enormous economic importance in Spain. Cultivation locations for these fruit species (i.e., peach, apricot, plum, and sweet cherry) cover wide and climatically diverse geographical areas within the country. Climate change is already producing an increase in average temperatures with special intensity in certain areas like the Mediterranean ones. These changes lead to a decrease in the accumulated chill, which can have a profound impact on the phenology of Prunus species like stone fruits due to, e.g., difficulties to cover the chilling requirements to break endodormancy, the occurrence of late frost events, or abnormal early high temperatures. All these factors can severely affect fruit production and quality and therefore provoke very negative consequences from the socio-economic point of view in the incumbent regions. Thus, characterization of current cultivation areas in terms of agroclimatic variables (e.g., chill and heat accumulation and probabilities of frost and early abnormal heat events), based on data from 270 weather stations for the past 20 years, is carried out in this work to produce an informative picture of the current situation. Besides, future climatic projections from different global climate models (data retrieved from the Meteorological State Agency of Spain-AEMET) up to 2065 for two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are also analyzed. Using the current situation as a baseline and considering the future scenarios, information on the current and future adaptive suitability of the different species/cultivars to the different growing areas can be inferred. This information could be the basis of a decision support tool to help the different stakeholders to take optimal decisions regarding current and future stone fruit or other temperate species cultivation in Spain.}, }
@article {pmid35755135, year = {2022}, author = {Adhikari, M and Longman, RJ and Giambelluca, TW and Lee, CN and He, Y}, title = {Climate change impacts shifting landscape of the dairy industry in Hawai'i.}, journal = {Translational animal science}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {txac064}, pmid = {35755135}, issn = {2573-2102}, abstract = {Proper knowledge and understanding of climatic variability across different seasons are important in farm management. To learn more about the potential effects of climate change on dairying in Hawaii, we conducted a study on site-specific climate characterization using several variables including rainfall, wind speed (WS), solar radiation, and temperature, at two dairy farms located on Hawai`i Island, Hawai`i, in Ookala named "OK DAIRY" and in Upolu Point named "UP DAIRY." Temperature-humidity index (THI) and WS variations in the hottest four months (June to September) were analyzed to determine when critical thresholds that affect animal health are exceeded. Rainfall data were used to estimate the capacity of forage production in 6-mo wet (November to April) and dry (May to October) seasons. Future projections of temperature and rainfall were assessed using mid- and end-century gridded data products for low (RCP 4.5) and high emissions (RCP 8.5) scenarios. Our results showed that the "OK DAIRY" site received higher rainfall than the "UP DAIRY" site, favoring grass growth and forage availability. In addition, the "UP DAIRY" site was more stressful for animals during the summer (THI 69 to 73) than the "OK DAIRY" site (THI 67 to 70) as the THI exceeded the critical threshold of 68, which is conducive for high-lactating cattle. On the "UP DAIRY" site, the THI did not drop below 68 during the summer nights, which created fewer opportunities for cattle to recover from heat stress. Future projections indicated that air temperature would increase 1.3 to 1.8 °C by mid-century and 1.6 to 3.2 °C by the end-century at both farms, and rainfall will increase at the "OK DAIRY" site and decrease at the "UP DAIRY" site by the end-century. The agriculture and livestock industries, particularly the dairy and beef subsectors in Hawai`i, are vulnerable to climate changes as higher temperatures and less rainfall will have adverse effects on cattle. The findings in this study demonstrated how both observed and projected changes in climate support the development of long-term strategies for breeding and holistic livestock management practices to adapt to changing climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid35752628, year = {2022}, author = {Qiu, Y and Lamers, P and Daioglou, V and McQueen, N and de Boer, HS and Harmsen, M and Wilcox, J and Bardow, A and Suh, S}, title = {Environmental trade-offs of direct air capture technologies in climate change mitigation toward 2100.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {3635}, pmid = {35752628}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Electricity ; Environment ; Prospective Studies ; Technology ; }, abstract = {Direct air capture (DAC) is critical for achieving stringent climate targets, yet the environmental implications of its large-scale deployment have not been evaluated in this context. Performing a prospective life cycle assessment for two promising technologies in a series of climate change mitigation scenarios, we find that electricity sector decarbonization and DAC technology improvements are both indispensable to avoid environmental problem-shifting. Decarbonizing the electricity sector improves the sequestration efficiency, but also increases the terrestrial ecotoxicity and metal depletion levels per tonne of CO2 sequestered via DAC. These increases can be reduced by improvements in DAC material and energy use efficiencies. DAC exhibits regional environmental impact variations, highlighting the importance of smart siting related to energy system planning and integration. DAC deployment aids the achievement of long-term climate targets, its environmental and climate performance however depend on sectoral mitigation actions, and thus should not suggest a relaxation of sectoral decarbonization targets.}, }
@article {pmid35752460, year = {2023}, author = {Chen, X and Chen, X and Xu, L and Wen, F}, title = {Attention to climate change and downside risk: Evidence from China.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {43}, number = {5}, pages = {1011-1031}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13975}, pmid = {35752460}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {72131011//National Natural Science foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {We explore the role of public climate attention, captured by the Baidu search volume index, in the downside risk. Using 45 keywords from five perspectives related to climate change, we construct a public climate attention index in China. We find a positive and significant relationship between climate attention and downside risk at the market-level and firm-level. Moreover, the risk-increase effect of climate attention becomes more prominent for state-owned and high-carbon-emission firms. Further analysis shows that excellent sustainable performance can moderate the adverse effect of rising climate attention, while the major climate disasters exacerbate the effect. Overall, our findings shed additional light on the important role of collective climate beliefs in corporate risk management and investor decision-making.}, }
@article {pmid35751354, year = {2022}, author = {Ali, MZ and Akmal, A and Fatima, L}, title = {Climate change - a monumental risk to Pakistani health.}, journal = {JPMA. The Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association}, volume = {72}, number = {6}, pages = {1249}, doi = {10.47391/JPMA.5289}, pmid = {35751354}, issn = {0030-9982}, mesh = {*Asian People ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid35751259, year = {2022}, author = {Shu, Y and Hu, J and Zhang, S and Schöpp, W and Tang, W and Du, J and Cofala, J and Kiesewetter, G and Sander, R and Winiwarter, W and Klimont, Z and Borken-Kleefeld, J and Amann, M and Li, H and He, Y and Zhao, J and Xie, D}, title = {Analysis of the air pollution reduction and climate change mitigation effects of the Three-Year Action Plan for Blue Skies on the "2+26" Cities in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {317}, number = {}, pages = {115455}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115455}, pmid = {35751259}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis/prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; Cities ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; }, abstract = {City clusters play an important role in air pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction in China, primarily due to their high fossil energy consumption levels. The "2 + 26" Cities, i.e., Beijing, Tianjin and 26 other perfectures in northern China, has experienced serious air pollution in recent years. We employ the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model adapted to the "2 + 26" Cities (GAINS-JJJ) to evaluate the impacts of structural adjustments in four major sectors, industry, energy, transport and land use, under the Three-Year Action Plan for Blue Skies (Three-Year Action Plan) on the emissions of both the major air pollutants and CO2 in the "2 + 26" Cities. The results indicate that the Three-Year Action Plan applied in the "2 + 26" Cities reduces the total emissions of primary fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), SO2, NOx, NH3 and CO2 by 17%, 25%, 21%, 3% and 1%, respectively, from 2017 to 2020. The emission reduction potentials vary widely across the 28 prefectures, which may be attributed to the differences in energy structure, industrial composition, and policy enforcement rate. Among the four sectors, adjustment of industrial structure attains the highest co-benefits of CO2 reduction and air pollution control due to its high CO2 reduction potential, while structural adjustments in energy and transport attain much lower co-benefits, despite their relatively high air pollutant emissions reductions, primarily resulting from an increase in the coal-electric load and associated carbon emissions caused by electric reform policies..}, }
@article {pmid35748990, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, X and Yan, B}, title = {Climate change and city size: the role of temperature difference in the spatial distribution of China's population.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {54}, pages = {82232-82242}, pmid = {35748990}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {CXJJ-2021-433//Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Foundation for Postgraduate Innovation/ ; CXJJ-2021-444//Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Foundation for Postgraduate Innovation/ ; }, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; China ; }, abstract = {This paper examines the relationship between climate change and the spatial distribution of population in China. We establish a two-way fixed effects model to investigate the role of temperature difference in the spatial distribution of China's population. We find that the annual variation of temperature has an impact on city size in both large and small cities, and that city size tends to shrink as the temperature difference increases. Meanwhile, we also find that the population in the cities located south of Qinling-Huaihe Line and Aihui-Tengchong Line (Hu's Line) is more sensitive to temperature effects, and that the temperature difference has a significant negative effect on city size. Similarly, the same results are found for prefecture-level cities with low administrative levels. Considering the endogeneity between temperature change and city size, we adopt an instrumental variable using latitude to perform a more robust empirical analysis, the results of a series of robustness tests support these conclusions.}, }
@article {pmid35745960, year = {2022}, author = {Preinstorfer, P and Huber, T and Reichenbach, S and Lees, JM and Kromoser, B}, title = {Parametric Design Studies of Mass-Related Global Warming Potential and Construction Costs of FRP-Reinforced Concrete Infrastructure.}, journal = {Polymers}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {35745960}, issn = {2073-4360}, support = {879341//Austrian Research Promotion Agency/ ; 101027058//European Union/ ; }, abstract = {Fibre-reinforced polymers (FRPs) are a promising corrosion-resistant alternative to steel reinforcement. FRPs are, however, generally costly and have a high energy demand during production. The question arises whether the high performance of FRPs and possible savings in concrete mass can counterbalance initial costs and environmental impact. In this paper, a parametric design study that considers a broad range of concrete infrastructure, namely a rail platform barrier, a retaining wall and a bridge, is conducted to assess the mass-related global warming potential and material costs. Design equations are parametrised to derive optimum reinforced concrete cross-sectional designs that fulfil the stated requirements for the serviceability limit state and ultimate limit state. Conventional steel reinforcement, glass and carbon FRP reinforcement options are evaluated. It is observed that the cross-sectional design has a significant influence on the environmental impact and cost, with local extrema for both categories determinable when the respective values become a minimum. When comparing the cradle-to-gate impact of the different materials, the fibre-reinforced polymer-reinforced structures are found to provide roughly equivalent or, in some cases, slightly more sustainable solutions than steel-reinforced structures in terms of the global warming potential, but the material costs are higher. In general, the size of the structure determines the cost competitiveness and sustainability of the FRP-reinforced concrete options with the rail platform barrier application showing the greatest potential.}, }
@article {pmid35743237, year = {2022}, author = {Arriagada, O and Cacciuttolo, F and Cabeza, RA and Carrasco, B and Schwember, AR}, title = {A Comprehensive Review on Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) Breeding for Abiotic Stress Tolerance and Climate Change Resilience.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {35743237}, issn = {1422-0067}, support = {R20F0001//Programa de Fortalecimiento Cient&#xed;fico de Centros Regionales/ ; R19A10001//Programa de Fortalecimiento Cient&#xed;fico de Centros Regionales/ ; }, mesh = {*Cicer/physiology ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Plant Breeding ; Stress, Physiological/genetics ; }, abstract = {Chickpea is one of the most important pulse crops worldwide, being an excellent source of protein. It is grown under rain-fed conditions averaging yields of 1 t/ha, far from its potential of 6 t/ha under optimum conditions. The combined effects of heat, cold, drought, and salinity affect species productivity. In this regard, several physiological, biochemical, and molecular mechanisms are reviewed to confer tolerance to abiotic stress. A large collection of nearly 100,000 chickpea accessions is the basis of breeding programs, and important advances have been achieved through conventional breeding, such as germplasm introduction, gene/allele introgression, and mutagenesis. In parallel, advances in molecular biology and high-throughput sequencing have allowed the development of specific molecular markers for the genus Cicer, facilitating marker-assisted selection for yield components and abiotic tolerance. Further, transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics have permitted the identification of specific genes, proteins, and metabolites associated with tolerance to abiotic stress of chickpea. Furthermore, some promising results have been obtained in studies with transgenic plants and with the use of gene editing to obtain drought-tolerant chickpea. Finally, we propose some future lines of research that may be useful to obtain chickpea genotypes tolerant to abiotic stress in a scenario of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35742752, year = {2022}, author = {Standen, JC and Spencer, J and Lee, GW and Van Buskirk, J and Matthews, V and Hanigan, I and Boylan, S and Jegasothy, E and Breth-Petersen, M and Morgan, GG}, title = {Aboriginal Population and Climate Change in Australia: Implications for Health and Adaptation Planning.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {35742752}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Indigenous Peoples ; *Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ; New South Wales/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The health impacts of climate are widely recognised, and extensive modelling is available on predicted changes to climate globally. The impact of these changes may affect populations differently depending on a range of factors, including geography, socioeconomics and culture. This study reviewed current evidence on the health risks of climate change for Australian Aboriginal populations and linked Aboriginal demographic data to historical and projected climate data to describe the distribution of climate-related exposures in Aboriginal compared to non-Aboriginal populations in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The study showed Aboriginal populations were disproportionately exposed to a range of climate extremes in heat, rainfall and drought, and this disproportionate exposure was predicted to increase with climate change over the coming decades. Aboriginal people currently experience higher rates of climate-sensitive health conditions and socioeconomic disadvantages, which will impact their capacity to adapt to climate change. Climate change may also adversely affect cultural practices. These factors will likely impact the health and well-being of Aboriginal people in NSW and inhibit measures to close the gap in health between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations. Climate change, health and equity need to be key considerations in all policies at all levels of government. Effective Aboriginal community engagement is urgently needed to develop and implement climate adaptation responses to improve health and social service preparedness and secure environmental health infrastructure such as drinking water supplies and suitably managed social housing. Further Aboriginal-led research is required to identify the cultural impacts of climate change on health, including adaptive responses based on Aboriginal knowledges.}, }
@article {pmid35742643, year = {2022}, author = {Li, J and Xi, M and Wang, L and Li, N and Wang, H and Qin, F}, title = {Vegetation Responses to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity in China, 1982 to 2018.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {35742643}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Anthropogenic Effects ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change and human activities significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Here, data reconstruction was performed to obtain a time series of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for China (1982−2018) based on Savitzky−Golay filtered GIMMS NDVI3g and MOD13A2 datasets. Combining surface temperature and precipitation observations from more than 2000 meteorological stations in China, Theil−Sen trend analysis, Mann−Kendall significance tests, Pearson correlation analysis, and residual trend analysis were used to quantitatively analyze the long-term trends of vegetation changes and their sources of uncertainty. Significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity was observed in vegetation changes in the study area. From 1982 to 2018, the vegetation showed a gradually increasing trend, at a rate of 0.5%·10 a−1, significantly improving (37.15%, p < 0.05) more than the significant degradation (7.46%, p < 0.05). Broadleaf (0.66) and coniferous forests (0.62) had higher NDVI, and farmland had the fastest rate of increase (1.02%/10 a−1). Temperature significantly affected the vegetation growth in spring (R > 0; p < 0.05); however, the increase in summer temperatures significantly inhibited (R < 0; p < 0.05) the growth in North China (RNDVI-tem = −0.379) and the Qinghai−Tibetan Plateau (RNDVI-tem = −0.051). Climate change has highly promoted the growth of vegetation in the plain region of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River (3.24%), Northwest China (1.07%). Affected by human activities only, 49.89% of the vegetation showed an increasing trend, of which 22.91% increased significantly (p < 0.05) and 9.97% decreased significantly (p < 0.05). Emergency mitigation actions are required in Northeast China, Xinjiang, Northwest China, and the Qinghai−Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, monitoring vegetation changes is important for ecological environment construction and promoting regional ecological protection.}, }
@article {pmid35742470, year = {2022}, author = {Han, P and Tong, Z and Sun, Y and Chen, X}, title = {Impact of Climate Change Beliefs on Youths' Engagement in Energy-Conservation Behavior: The Mediating Mechanism of Environmental Concerns.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {35742470}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; Health Behavior ; Humans ; *Knowledge ; Social Responsibility ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Global climate change presents a profound threat to the survival and continued development of humanity. The present study featured a survey of 3005 adolescents in China on 13 December 2021, aiming to determine whether climate change beliefs (including recognition of the existence of climate change, cognition of the causes of climate change, and climate change risk perception) influence their engagement in energy-conservation behaviors. Concurrently, the psychological mechanism underlying the influence of environmental concerns on the above relationship was also tested. The results showed that, among youths, climate change belief positively predicts engagement in energy-conservation behaviors. Specifically, awareness of the existence of climate change, knowledge of the causes of climate change, and climate change risk perception all positively predict engagement in energy-conservation behaviors. Further, environmental concerns were found to play a mediating role in the relationship between climate change beliefs and energy-conservation actions. From a practical perspective, the government and education departments should guide young people to develop accurate perceptions of climate change, and should raise their awareness of energy conservation and social responsibility, which should lead to their development of energy-conservation habits.}, }
@article {pmid35741389, year = {2022}, author = {Liao, J and Wang, H and Xiao, S and Guan, Z and Zhang, H and Dumont, HJ and Han, BP}, title = {Modeling and Prediction of the Species' Range of Neurobasis chinensis (Linnaeus, 1758) under Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {35741389}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {32171538//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Neurobasis chinensis is widely distributed in eastern tropical Asia. Its only congener in China, the N. anderssoni, has not been observed for decades. To protect N. chinensis, it is necessary to understand the ecological properties of its habitats and specie's range shift under climate change. In the present study, we modeled its potential distribution under one historical, current, and four future scenarios. We evaluated the importance of the factors that shape its distribution and habitats and predicted the historical and current core spatial distributions and their shifting in the future. Two historical core distribution areas were identified: the inland region of the Bay of Bengal and south-central Vietnam. The current potential distribution includes south China, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Luzon of Philippines, Malaysia, southwest and northeast India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia (Java, Sumatera), Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and foothills of the Himalayas, in total, ca. 3.59 × 10[6] km[2]. Only one core distribution remained, concentrated in south-central Vietnam. In a warming future, the core distribution, high suitable habitats, and even the whole range of N. chinensis will expand and shift northwards. Currently, N. chinensis mainly resides in forest ecosystems below 1200 m above sea level (preferred 500 m to 1200 m a.s.l.). Annual precipitation, mean temperature of driest quarter, and seasonality of precipitation are important factors shaping the species distribution. Our study provides systematic information on habitats and geographical distribution, which is useful for the conservation of N. chinensis.}, }
@article {pmid35737990, year = {2022}, author = {López-Idiáquez, D and Teplitsky, C and Grégoire, A and Fargevieille, A and Del Rey, M and de Franceschi, C and Charmantier, A and Doutrelant, C}, title = {Long-Term Decrease in Coloration: A Consequence of Climate Change?.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {200}, number = {1}, pages = {32-47}, doi = {10.1086/719655}, pmid = {35737990}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; *Passeriformes/physiology ; *Songbirds/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {AbstractClimate change has been shown to affect fitness-related traits in a wide range of taxa; for instance, warming leads to phenological advancements in many plant and animal species. The influence of climate change on social and secondary sexual traits, which are associated with fitness because of their role as quality signals, is, however, unknown. Here, we use more than 5,800 observations collected on two Mediterranean blue tit subspecies (Cyanistes caeruleus caeruleus and Cyanistes caeruleus ogliastrae) to explore whether blue crown and yellow breast patch colorations have changed over the past 15 years. Our data suggest that coloration has become duller and less chromatic in both sexes. In addition, in the Corsican C.c. ogliastrae, but not in the mainland C.c. caeruleus, the decrease is associated with an increase in temperature at molt. Quantitative genetic analyses do not reveal any microevolutionary change in the color traits over the study period, strongly suggesting that the observed change over time was caused by a plastic response to the environmental conditions. Overall, this study suggests that ornamental colorations could become less conspicuous because of warming, revealing climate change effects on sexual and social ornaments and calling for further research on the proximate mechanisms behind these effects.}, }
@article {pmid35737796, year = {2022}, author = {Seddon, N}, title = {Harnessing the potential of nature-based solutions for mitigating and adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {376}, number = {6600}, pages = {1410-1416}, doi = {10.1126/science.abn9668}, pmid = {35737796}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Human Rights ; Humans ; Indigenous Peoples ; Organizations ; *Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {Although many governments, financial institutions, and corporations are embracing nature-based solutions as part of their sustainability and net-zero carbon strategies, some nations, Indigenous peoples, local community groups, and grassroots organizations have rejected this term. This pushback is fueled by (i) critical uncertainties about when, where, how, and for whom nature-based solutions are effective and (ii) controversies surrounding their misuse in greenwashing, violations of human rights, and threats to biodiversity. To clarify how the scientific community can help address these issues, I provide an overview of recent research on the benefits and limits of nature-based solutions, including how they compare with technological approaches, and highlight critical areas for future research.}, }
@article {pmid35737793, year = {2022}, author = {Moore, JW and Schindler, DE}, title = {Getting ahead of climate change for ecological adaptation and resilience.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {376}, number = {6600}, pages = {1421-1426}, doi = {10.1126/science.abo3608}, pmid = {35737793}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Changing the course of Earth's climate is increasingly urgent, but there is also a concurrent need for proactive stewardship of the adaptive capacity of the rapidly changing biosphere. Adaptation ultimately underpins the resilience of Earth's complex systems; species, communities, and ecosystems shift and evolve over time. Yet oncoming changes will seriously challenge current natural resource management and conservation efforts. We review forward-looking conservation approaches to enable adaptation and resilience. Key opportunities include expanding beyond preservationist approaches by including those that enable and facilitate ecological change. Conservation should not just focus on climate change losers but also on proactive management of emerging opportunities. Local efforts to conserve biodiversity and generate habitat complexity will also help to maintain a diversity of future options for an unpredictable future.}, }
@article {pmid35737771, year = {2022}, author = {Zurek, M and Hebinck, A and Selomane, O}, title = {Climate change and the urgency to transform food systems.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {376}, number = {6600}, pages = {1416-1421}, doi = {10.1126/science.abo2364}, pmid = {35737771}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Food Security ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Without rapid changes to agriculture and food systems, the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change will not be met. Food systems are one of the most important contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but they also need to be adapted to cope with climate change impacts. Although many options exist to reduce GHG emissions in the food system, efforts to develop implementable transformation pathways are hampered by a combination of structural challenges such as fragmented decision-making, vested interests, and power imbalances in the climate policy and food communities, all of which are compounded by a lack of joint vision. New processes and governance arrangements are urgently needed for dealing with potential trade-offs among mitigation options and their food security implications.}, }
@article {pmid35736767, year = {2022}, author = {Fyllas, NM and Koufaki, T and Sazeides, CI and Spyroglou, G and Theodorou, K}, title = {Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of the Dominant Tree Species in Greece.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {35736767}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Climate change is affecting species distribution and ecosystem form and function. Forests provide a range of ecosystem services, and understanding their vulnerability to climate change is important for designing effective adaptation strategies. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been extensively used to derive habitat suitability maps under current conditions and project species distribution shifts under climate change. In this study, we model the current and future habitat suitability of the dominant tree species in Greece (Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Pinus brutia, Pinus halepensis, Pinus nigra, Quercus ilex, Quercus pubescens, Quercus frainetto and Fagus sylvatica), based on species-specific presence data from the EU-Forest database, enhanced with data from Greece that is currently under-represented in terms of tree species occurrence points. By including these additional presence data, areas with relatively drier conditions for some of the study species were included in the SDM development, yielding a potentially lower vulnerability under climate change conditions. SDMs were developed for each taxon using climate and soil data at a resolution of ~1 km[2]. Model performance was assessed under current conditions and was found to adequately simulate potential distributions. Subsequently, the models were used to project the potential distribution of each species under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time periods. Under climate change scenarios, a reduction in habitat-suitable areas was predicted for most study species, with higher elevation taxa experiencing more pronounced potential habitat shrinkages. An exception was the endemic A. cephalonica and its sister species A. borisii-regis, which, although currently found at mid and high elevations, seem able to maintain their potential distribution under most climate change scenarios. Our findings suggest that climate change could significantly affect the distribution and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Greece, with important ecological, economic and social implications, and thus adequate mitigation measures should be implemented.}, }
@article {pmid35735887, year = {2022}, author = {Dong, Z and He, Y and Ren, Y and Wang, G and Chu, D}, title = {Seasonal and Year-Round Distributions of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and Its Risk to Temperate Fruits under Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {35735887}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) is an important pest to fruits and vegetables. It can damage more than 300 plant species. The distribution of B. dorsalis has been expanding owing to international trade and other human activities. B. dorsalis occurrence is strongly related to suitable overwintering conditions and distribution areas, but it is unclear where these seasonal and year-round suitable areas are. We used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) to predict the potential seasonal and year-round distribution areas of B. dorsalis. We also projected suitable habitat areas in 2040 and 2060 under global warming scenarios, such as SSP126 and SSP585. These models achieved AUC values of 0.860 and 0.956 for the seasonal and year-round scenarios, respectively, indicating their good prediction capabilities. The precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) and the mean diurnal temperature range (Bio2) contributed 83.9% to the seasonal distribution prediction model. Bio2 and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) provided important information related to the year-round distribution prediction. In future scenarios, the suitable area of B. dorsalis will increase and the range will expand northward. Four important temperate fruits, namely, apples, peaches, pears, and oranges, will be seriously threatened. The information from this study provides a useful reference for implementing improved population management strategies for B. dorsalis.}, }
@article {pmid35733273, year = {2022}, author = {Wåhlström, I and Hammar, L and Hume, D and Pålsson, J and Almroth-Rosell, E and Dieterich, C and Arneborg, L and Gröger, M and Mattsson, M and Zillén Snowball, L and Kågesten, G and Törnqvist, O and Breviere, E and Brunnabend, SE and Jonsson, PR}, title = {Projected climate change impact on a coastal sea-As significant as all current pressures combined.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {17}, pages = {5310-5319}, pmid = {35733273}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Eutrophication ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; Salinity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change influences the ocean's physical and biogeochemical conditions, causing additional pressures on marine environments and ecosystems, now and in the future. Such changes occur in environments that already today suffer under pressures from, for example, eutrophication, pollution, shipping, and more. We demonstrate how to implement climate change into regional marine spatial planning by introducing data of future temperature, salinity, and sea ice cover from regional ocean climate model projections to an existing cumulative impact model. This makes it possible to assess climate change impact in relation to pre-existing cumulative impact from current human activities. Results indicate that end-of-century projected climate change alone is a threat of the same magnitude as the combination of all current pressures to the marine environment. These findings give marine planners and policymakers forewarning on how future climate change may impact marine ecosystems, across space, emission scenarios, and in relation to other pressures.}, }
@article {pmid35730155, year = {2022}, author = {Pilotto, F and Rojas, A and Buckland, PI}, title = {Late Holocene anthropogenic landscape change in northwestern Europe impacted insect biodiversity as much as climate change did after the last Ice Age.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {289}, number = {1977}, pages = {20212734}, pmid = {35730155}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Coleoptera ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Fossils ; Insecta ; }, abstract = {Since the last Ice Age (ca 115 000-11 700 years ago), the geographical ranges of most plants and animals have shifted, expanded or contracted. Understanding the timing, geographical patterns and drivers of past changes in insect communities is essential for evaluating the biodiversity implications of future climate changes, yet our knowledge of long-term patterns is limited. We applied a network modelling approach to the recent fossil record of northwestern European beetles to investigate how their taxonomic and trait composition changed during the past 16 000 years. We found two major changes in beetle faunas 4000-3500 and 10 000-9500 years ago, coinciding with periods of human population growth in the Late Holocene and climate warming in the Early Holocene. Our results demonstrate that humans have affected insect biodiversity since at least the introduction of agropastoralism, with landscape-scale effects that can be observed at sites away from areas of direct human impact.}, }
@article {pmid35730078, year = {2022}, author = {Chen, YG and LE, XG and Chen, YH and Cheng, WX and DU, JG and Zhong, QL and Cheng, DL}, title = {[Identification of the potential distribution area of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China under climate change based on the MaxEnt model].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {33}, number = {5}, pages = {1207-1214}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202205.024}, pmid = {35730078}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Cunninghamia ; Ecosystem ; Entropy ; Forecasting ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, abstract = {Based on the distribution records of Cunninghamia lanceolata, we used the maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and geographic information system (GIS) methods, combined with environmental factors such as climate and terrain, to predict the potential distribution areas suitable for C. lanceolata under current and future climate scenarios. The results showed that annual precipitation was the most important factor driving the distribution of C. lanceolata. Under the current climate scenario, the total area of suitable for C. lanceolata growth was about 3.28 million km[2], accounting for about 34.5% of the total land area of China. Among all the suitable areas, the lowly, intermediately, and highly suitable areas accounted for 18.3%, 29.7% and 52.0% of the total, respectively. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of C. lanceolata would increase, showing a clear trend of northward expansion in China. A concentrated and contiguous distribution region highly suitable for C. lanceolata would appear in the humid subtropical areas of southern China. The model was tested by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). The average area under the curve of ROC of the training set was 0.91, showing high reliability.}, }
@article {pmid35729894, year = {2022}, author = {Giovanis, E and Ozdamar, O}, title = {The impact of climate change on budget balances and debt in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {172}, number = {3-4}, pages = {34}, pmid = {35729894}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Lower tax revenues and greater government spending result in higher deficits and public debt. As a result, determining the degree of budgetary effects is vital, but important to assess the persistence of these effects. We aim to investigate the impact of climate change on the fiscal balance and public debt in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The empirical analysis relies on panel data in the period 1990-2019 and employs various models. The findings show that temperature changes adversely affect the government budget and increase debt, but we find no significant impact of changes in rainfall. The average temperature decreases fiscal balance by 0.3 percent and increases debt by 1.87 percent. Using projections of temperature and rainfall over the years 2020 to 2099, we find a significant decrease in the fiscal balance at 7.3 percent and an increase in the public debt at 16 percent in 2060-2079 and 18 percent in 2080-2099 under the assumption of a high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario. On the contrary, under the low GHG emission scenario, the fiscal balance deteriorates by 1.7 percent in 2020-2039 and 2.2 percent in 2080-2099, while public debt rises by 5 percent in 2020-2039 and 6.3 percent in 2080-2099.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03388-x.}, }
@article {pmid35729542, year = {2022}, author = {Johnson, JV and Dick, JTA and Pincheira-Donoso, D}, title = {Correction: Marine protected areas do not buffer corals from bleaching under global warming.}, journal = {BMC ecology and evolution}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {81}, pmid = {35729542}, issn = {2730-7182}, }
@article {pmid35728617, year = {2022}, author = {Jackson, HM and Johnson, SA and Morandin, LA and Richardson, LL and Guzman, LM and M'Gonigle, LK}, title = {Climate change winners and losers among North American bumblebees.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {18}, number = {6}, pages = {20210551}, pmid = {35728617}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animals ; Bees ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; North America ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Mounting evidence suggests that climate change, agricultural intensification and disease are impacting bumblebee health and contributing to species' declines. Identifying how these factors impact insect communities at large spatial and temporal scales is difficult, partly because species may respond in different ways. Further, the necessary data must span large spatial and temporal scales, which usually means they comprise aggregated, presence-only records collected using numerous methods (e.g. diversity surveys, educational collections, citizen-science projects, standardized ecological surveys). Here, we use occupancy models, which explicitly correct for biases in the species observation process, to quantify the effect of changes in temperature, precipitation and floral resources on bumblebee site occupancy over the past 12 decades in North America. We find no evidence of genus-wide declines in site occupancy, but do find that occupancy is strongly related to temperature, and is only weakly related to precipitation or floral resources. We also find that more species are likely to be climate change 'losers' than 'winners' and that this effect is primarily associated with changing temperature. Importantly, all trends were highly species-specific, highlighting that genus or community-wide measures may not reflect diverse species-specific patterns that are critical in guiding allocation of conservation resources.}, }
@article {pmid35727303, year = {2022}, author = {Rahman, MM and McConnell, R and Schlaerth, H and Ko, J and Silva, S and Lurmann, FW and Palinkas, L and Johnston, J and Hurlburt, M and Yin, H and Ban-Weiss, G and Garcia, E}, title = {The Effects of Coexposure to Extremes of Heat and Particulate Air Pollution on Mortality in California: Implications for Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine}, volume = {206}, number = {9}, pages = {1117-1127}, pmid = {35727303}, issn = {1535-4970}, support = {P30ES007048/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; *Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Hot Temperature ; Cross-Over Studies ; Climate Change ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; California ; Dust ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases/chemically induced ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Mortality ; }, abstract = {Rationale: Extremes of heat and particulate air pollution threaten human health and are becoming more frequent because of climate change. Understanding the health impacts of coexposure to extreme heat and air pollution is urgent. Objectives: To estimate the association of acute coexposure to extreme heat and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in California from 2014 to 2019. Methods: We used a case-crossover study design with time-stratified matching using conditional logistic regression to estimate mortality associations with acute coexposures to extreme heat and PM2.5. For each case day (date of death) and its control days, daily average PM2.5 and maximum and minimum temperatures were assigned (0- to 3-day lag) on the basis of the decedent's residence census tract. Measurements and Main Results: All-cause mortality risk increased 6.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-8.1) on extreme maximum temperature-only days and 5.0% (95% CI, 3.0-8.0) on extreme PM2.5-only days, compared with nonextreme days. Risk increased by 21.0% (95% CI, 6.6-37.3) on days with exposure to both extreme maximum temperature and PM2.5. Increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality on extreme coexposure days was 29.9% (95% CI, 3.3-63.3) and 38.0% (95% CI, -12.5 to 117.7), respectively, and were more than the sum of individual effects of extreme temperature and PM2.5 only. A similar pattern was observed for coexposure to extreme PM2.5 and minimum temperature. Effect estimates were larger over age 75 years. Conclusions: Short-term exposure to extreme heat and air pollution alone were individually associated with increased risk of mortality, but their coexposure had larger effects beyond the sum of their individual effects.}, }
@article {pmid35726486, year = {2022}, author = {Urrutia-Pereira, M and Badellino, H and Ansotegui, IJ and Guidos, G and Solé, D}, title = {Climate change and allergic diseases in children and adolescents.}, journal = {Allergologia et immunopathologia}, volume = {50}, number = {S Pt 1}, pages = {7-16}, pmid = {35726486}, issn = {1578-1267}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Aged ; *Air Pollutants ; *Air Pollution ; Allergens ; Child ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The Anthropocene is used to describe the most recent period where major disruptions in Earth's system processes have resulted from humanity's increasing ecological footprint. Climate change affects the social and environmental determinants of good health, such as clean air, stable ecosystems, safe drinking water, and sufficient and safe food, and they seem to be closely related to air pollution.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This article aims to review the evidence of how extreme weather events and indoor and outdoor pollution are associated with insufficient lung growth in early life, changes in lung function, and the increase in respiratory infections, favoring the development of allergic respiratory diseases.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: Non-systematic review of English, Spanish, and Portuguese articles published in the last ten years in databases such as PubMed, EMBASE, and SciELO. The terms used were air pollution OR climate changes OR smoke, AND health OR allergic disease.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change and air pollution are the leading contributors to health emergencies around the world. On a global scale, those most at risk of adverse health effects associated with climate change include children, the elderly, and other vulnerable groups. Climate change and air pollution have adverse impacts on respiratory allergies, and the mechanisms are complex and interactive.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Health professionals must receive information and education necessary to establish effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the effects of climate changes on the respiratory health of their patients.}, }
@article {pmid35725762, year = {2022}, author = {Carnicer, J and Alegria, A and Giannakopoulos, C and Di Giuseppe, F and Karali, A and Koutsias, N and Lionello, P and Parrington, M and Vitolo, C}, title = {Global warming is shifting the relationships between fire weather and realized fire-induced CO2 emissions in Europe.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {10365}, pmid = {35725762}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Fires ; Global Warming ; Weather ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Fire activity has significantly changed in Europe over the last decades (1980-2020s), with the emergence of summers attaining unprecedented fire prone weather conditions. Here we report a significant shift in the non-stationary relationship linking fire weather conditions and fire intensity measured in terms of CO2 emissions released during biomass burning across a latitudinal gradient of European IPCC regions. The reported trends indicate that global warming is possibly inducing an incipient change on regional fire dynamics towards increased fire impacts in Europe, suggesting that emerging risks posed by exceptional fire-weather danger conditions may progressively exceed current wildfire suppression capabilities in the next decades and impact forest carbon sinks.}, }
@article {pmid35724570, year = {2022}, author = {Fu, X and Li, C}, title = {How resilient are localities planning for climate change? An evaluation of 50 plans in the United States.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {318}, number = {}, pages = {115493}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115493}, pmid = {35724570}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Uncertainty ; United States ; }, abstract = {Resilience has increasingly become the principal management priority and planning goal for cities, especially for climate change adaptation. Yet few studies have evaluated whether and how well resilience are integrated into climate change adaptation planning. In this study, we first conceptualized resilience as five key elements (i.e., system, collaboration, uncertainty, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity) and developed a coding protocol based on these key elements. We then used it to evaluate a sample of 50 climate change plans in the United States (US) that has a major adaptation component. We found that the concept of resilience has not been adequately embedded in US climate change plans and that the predominant notions of resilience has limited influence on how well plans integrate resilience. We also found that standalone adaptation plans outperform hybrid plans in addressing uncertainty and fostering systems thinking. Ultimately, major barriers exist in translating the concept of resilience into climate change planning practice. We further offer implications for cities to more effectively plan for climate resilience.}, }
@article {pmid35723828, year = {2023}, author = {Qin, J and Mazomba, M and Huang, R and Zhao, J and Wang, F and He, G and Wang, J and Du, W and Mo, Y}, title = {Study on the relationship among typhoon, climate change, and acute Stanford type A aortic dissection in southern of Zhejiang in China.}, journal = {General thoracic and cardiovascular surgery}, volume = {71}, number = {2}, pages = {113-120}, pmid = {35723828}, issn = {1863-6713}, mesh = {Humans ; *Aortic Dissection/diagnostic imaging/epidemiology ; China/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Retrospective Studies ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between typhoon, climate change, and acute Stanford type A aortic dissection (TAAD) in southern of Zhejiang Province in China.<br><br>METHOD: 371 patients with TAAD were admitted to three hospitals (the aortic dissection center) in southern of Zhejiang Province, China from January 2015 to December 2020, and data were retrospectively collected, the data included (1) the number of patients admitted in different months and seasons, (2) daily meteorological data in southern of Zhejiang Province, and (3) typhoon information were retrospectively analyzed.<br><br>RESULTS: The number of TAAD occurred in winter was the highest and in summer was the lowest. The incidence of TAAD was correlated with minimum temperature, maximum wind speed, mean wind speed, and water vapor pressure (P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.05). Maximum wind speed (RR 0.37; 95% CI 0.17 to 0.80, P&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.01) and water vapor pressure (RR 0.96; 95% CI 0.92 to 1, P&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.03) were the protective factor. The occurrence incidence of TAAD under the influence of typhoon climate was less than that during the period not affected by typhoon (P&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.05).<br><br>CONCLUSION: There was a correlation between typhoon, climate change, and the occurrence of TAAD in southern Zhejiang Province. Wind speed, vapor pressure, and typhoon may be protective factors.}, }
@article {pmid35723822, year = {2022}, author = {Ma, B and Jing, J and Liu, B and Xu, Y and Dou, S and He, H}, title = {Quantitative assessment of the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP changes in the Southwest Karst area of China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {53}, pages = {80597-80611}, pmid = {35723822}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {No.42161028//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; No. 2020GXNSFBA297160//Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi Province of China/ ; No. 2021AC1915//The Guangxi Science &amp; Technology Program/ ; No. 15-140-07-10//Foundation of Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Human Activities ; China ; }, abstract = {Net primary production (NPP) is an essential component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and an essential factor of ecological processes. In global change research, it was the core content to study the driving forces of NPP change. In this paper, we focused on the Southwest Karst area of China and analyzed the response mechanisms of NPP to topography, land-use types, climatic change, and human activities. Our results showed that (1) changes in elevation and slope lead to significant differences in the spatial distribution of NPP. With the increase of elevation and slope, NPP first increased and then decreased, their critical values were 2000 m and 15°, respectively. (2) NPP varied significantly among different land-use types. The average NPP of the forest was the highest, and the average NPP of cultivated land increased fastest. (3) Temperature and precipitation had the most substantial influence on NPP, both of them promoted the increase of NPP, and the effect of temperature was more obvious in the Southwest Karst area. (4) Ecological engineering significantly promoted the change of NPP, while animal husbandry significantly inhibited the change of NPP. (5) There were significant spatial differences in the driving effects and corresponding contributions of climatic change and human activities; both of them promoted the increase of NPP in the Southwest Karst area of China. Under climatic change and human activities, NPP increased by 1.24 gC·m[-2]·year[-1] and 2.29 gC·m[-2]·year[-1], respectively. The contributions rates of climatic change and human activities separately accounted for 35% and 65%. The contribution of human activities on NPP was much higher than that of climatic change in the Southwest Karst area, and the results suggested that we should focus on the role of human activities on NPP change.}, }
@article {pmid35722673, year = {2022}, author = {Flores-López, CA and Moo-Llanes, DA and Romero-Figueroa, G and Guevara-Carrizales, A and López-Ordoñez, T and Casas-Martínez, M and Samy, AM}, title = {Potential distributions of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi and its vector Dipetalogaster maxima highlight areas at risk of Chagas disease transmission in Baja California Sur, Mexico, under climate change.}, journal = {Medical and veterinary entomology}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {469-479}, doi = {10.1111/mve.12591}, pmid = {35722673}, issn = {1365-2915}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Trypanosoma cruzi ; Mexico/epidemiology ; *Parasites ; Climate Change ; Insect Vectors/parasitology ; *Chagas Disease/veterinary ; *Triatominae/parasitology ; }, abstract = {Dipetalogaster maxima is a primary vector of Chagas disease in the Cape region of Baja California Sur, Mexico. The geographic distribution of D. maxima is limited to this small region of the Baja California Peninsula in Mexico. Our study aimed to construct the ecological niche models (ENMs) of this understudied vector species and the parasite responsible for Chagas disease (Trypanosoma cruzi). We modelled the ecological niches of both species under current and future climate change projections in 2050 using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. We also assessed the human population at risk of exposure to D. maxima bites, the hypothesis of ecological niche equivalency and similarity between D. maxima and T. cruzi, and finally the abundance centroid hypothesis. The ENM predicted a higher overlap between both species in the Western and Southern coastal regions of the Baja California Peninsula. The climate change scenarios predicted a Northern shift in the ecological niche of both species. Our findings suggested that the highly tourist destination of Los Cabos is a high-risk zone for Chagas disease circulation. Overall, the study provides valuable data to vector surveillance and control programs.}, }
@article {pmid35722027, year = {2022}, author = {Wheat, S and Gaughen, S and Skeet, J and Campbell, L and Donatuto, J and Schaeffer, J and Sorensen, C}, title = {Climate change and COVID-19: Assessing the vulnerability and resilience of U.S. Indigenous communities to syndemic crises.}, journal = {The journal of climate change and health}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {100148}, pmid = {35722027}, issn = {2667-2782}, abstract = {The rapid emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the insidiously evolving climate crisis represent two of the most pressing public health threats to Indigenous Peoples in the United States. Understanding the ways in which these syndemics uniquely impact Indigenous Peoples, given the existing health disparities for such communities, is essential if we are to address modifiable root causes of health vulnerability and devise effective and equitable strategies to protect and improve health in the evolving climate landscape. We explore the compounding burden of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change on Indigenous Peoples' health, and present several case studies which outline novel Indigenous approaches and perspectives that address climate change, COVID-19 and future health threats.}, }
@article {pmid35721688, year = {2022}, author = {Paudel, D and Tiwari, KR and Raut, N and Bajracharya, RM and Bhattarai, S and Sitaula, BK and Thapa, S}, title = {What affects farmers in choosing better agroforestry practice as a strategy of climate change adaptation? An experience from the mid-hills of Nepal.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e09695}, pmid = {35721688}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Determinants for choosing climate change adaptation strategies and selecting improved agroforestry practices have rarely been explored, while numerous studies have been conducted on climate change and agroforestry. This paper discusses; local understanding of climate change, climatic impacts, and factors that affect farmers' choices of adaptation strategies, and agroforestry practices. We focused on three districts located in the mid-hills of Nepal, where farmers were adopting agroforestry practices in two forms; traditional and improved practices. We followed three techniques of social survey; household survey (n = 420), focus group discussions (n = 6), and key informant interviews (n = 24). Almost all farmers of the study areas were experiencing climatic challenges, but only 59.29% of them accepted that the challenges are induced by climate change and, likewise, 55.24% have adopted climate change adaptation measures. Diversifying crop production, shifting farming practices, changing occupation, and emigration were local adaptation strategies. Livelihood improvement, income generation, and food production were the primary motives for adopting agroforestry practices in the study area. Agroforestry as an adaptation measure to climate change was considered secondary by most farmers. Statistical analysis using a logit model revealed that age, education, and habit of growing commercial species significantly influenced farmers adopting climate change adaptation strategies. Likewise, age, education, gender, habit of growing commercial species, and income from tree products significantly influenced the choice of improved agroforestry practices as a better option. Though agroforestry was widely considered a strategy to combat climate change, only some farmers accepted it due to their awareness level. Therefore, education programs such as training, farmer field schools, door-to-door visits, etc., should be intensified to sensitize farmers about climate change and encourage them to adopt improved agroforestry practices. The findings of the study could reinforce local, national, and international allied agencies to design operative actions in the days to come.}, }
@article {pmid35720971, year = {2022}, author = {Solway, J and Kenyon, N and Berglund, L}, title = {Clinical and translational science and climate change: Time for action.}, journal = {Journal of clinical and translational science}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {e57}, pmid = {35720971}, issn = {2059-8661}, }
@article {pmid35719878, year = {2022}, author = {Fischer, I and Rubenstein, DI and Levin, SA}, title = {Vaccination-hesitancy and global warming: distinct social challenges with similar behavioural solutions.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {211515}, pmid = {35719878}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Although the COVID-19 vaccine has dramatically changed the fight against the pandemic, many exhibit vaccination-hesitancy. At the same time, continued human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases pose an alarming threat to humanity. Based on the theory of Subjective Expected Relative Similarity (SERS) and a recent international study that drastically modified COVID-19 health-related attitudes, we explain why a similar approach and a corresponding public policy are expected to help resolve both behavioural issues: reduce vaccination hesitancy and motivate climate actions.}, }
@article {pmid35719093, year = {2022}, author = {Khan, MS and Mubeen, I and Caimeng, Y and Zhu, G and Khalid, A and Yan, M}, title = {Waste to energy incineration technology: Recent development under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {40}, number = {12}, pages = {1708-1729}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X221105411}, pmid = {35719093}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {*Incineration ; Solid Waste/analysis ; Coal Ash/analysis ; Climate Change ; Coal ; Hydrogen ; *Refuse Disposal ; }, abstract = {With the huge generation of municipal solid waste (MSW), proper management and disposal of MSW is a worldwide challenge for sustainable development of cities and high quality of citizens life. Although different disposal ways are available, incineration is a leading harmless approach to effectively recover energy among the applied technologies. The purpose of the present review paper is to detail the discussion of evolution of waste to energy incineration and specifically to highlight the currently used and advanced incineration technologies, including combined incineration with other energy, for instance, hydrogen production, coal and solar energy. In addition, the environmental performance is discussed, including the zero waste emission, leachate and fly ash treatment, climate change contribution and public behaviour. Finally, challenges, opportunities and business model are addressed. Trends and perspectives on policies and techno-economic aspects are also discussed in this review. Different simulation tools, which can be used for the thermodynamic assessment of incineration plants, are debated; life-cycle inventory emissions and most critical environmental impacts of such plants are evaluated by life-cycle analysis. This review shows that waste incineration with energy yield is advantageous to handle waste problems and it affects climate change positively.}, }
@article {pmid35718185, year = {2022}, author = {Padiyedath Gopalan, S and Champathong, A and Sukhapunnaphan, T and Nakamura, S and Hanasaki, N}, title = {Potential impact of diversion canals and retention areas as climate change adaptation measures on flood risk reduction: A hydrological modelling case study from the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {841}, number = {}, pages = {156742}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156742}, pmid = {35718185}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Floods ; Risk Reduction Behavior ; *Rivers ; Thailand ; }, abstract = {The countries of Southeast Asia are projected to experience severe flood damage and economic impacts from climate change, compared with the global average. Hence adaptation by incorporating infrastructures is essential, but it has been seldom explicitly included in the simulations projecting climate change impacts on flood risk in these countries. Quantifying the effects of infrastructure is the key to climate change impact and adaptation assessment. Therefore, this study was conducted in the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) in Thailand to examine the adaptation potential of (i) existing structural and non-structural measures that include reservoir and diversion dams, diversion canals, and water retention areas, and (ii) the combined adaptation measures, a combination of alterations made to the existing diversion canals and retention areas, on reducing future floods using the H08 global hydrological model (GHM). The results revealed that the impact of existing measures on the future flood reduction was smaller than the increase caused by warming in the CPRB. Conversely, the combined adaptation measures successfully mitigated the effect of warming by redirecting nearly 50 % of the diverted river flow to the ocean and storing 30 % of the diverted flow in the retention areas. Although a remarkable reduction was noted in the basin-wide flood risk, the effect of adaptation measures greatly varied across the basin. The combined adaptation measures largely reduced the number of flooding days by close to 100 at many of the considered stations within the basin, except for extreme flood events (historical 1-percentile flood events). This further reveals that the feasibility of adaptation measures in alleviating the extreme future floods will be limited in flood-vulnerable basins and thus require area-based prioritization for flood management. The modelling framework implemented in this study can be easily adapted to different GHMs and regions and should be examined for their applicability.}, }
@article {pmid35717626, year = {2022}, author = {Vardoulakis, S and Matthews, V and Bailie, RS and Hu, W and Salvador-Carulla, L and Barratt, AL and Chu, C}, title = {Building resilience to Australian flood disasters in the face of climate change.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {217}, number = {7}, pages = {342-345}, pmid = {35717626}, issn = {1326-5377}, support = {2008937//National Health and Medical Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Australia ; Climate Change ; *Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; Floods ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35716120, year = {2022}, author = {Gillard, MB and Castillo, JM and Mesgaran, MB and Futrell, CJ and Grewell, BJ}, title = {Germination niche breadth of invasive Iris pseudacorus (L.) suggests continued recruitment from seeds with global warming.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {109}, number = {7}, pages = {1108-1119}, pmid = {35716120}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {California ; Ecosystem ; *Germination/physiology ; Global Warming ; Introduced Species ; *Iris Plant ; *Seeds/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {PREMISE: Understanding recruitment processes of invasive species is central to conservation and management strategies. Iris pseudacorus, an emergent macrophyte, has established invasive populations across a broad global range, and reduces biodiversity in wetland ecosystems. Climate change is altering germination cues, yet studies on the invasion of wetland macrophytes often ignore germination ecology despite its importance to their establishment and spread.<br><br>METHODS: We explored germination of seeds from invasive I. pseudacorus populations in California in response to seed coat presence or absence, and several environmental factors. Using experimental results in a thermal time model, we derived germination temperature thresholds.<br><br>RESULTS: Germination of I. pseudacorus seeds did not require cold or warm stratification, and was not affected by seed coat presence or absence. Germination occurred in the dark, although germinability was two- to threefold times greater under light. At constant temperature, thermal time model estimates included 18.3&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;1.8&#xb0;C base germination temperature (Tb$({T}_{b}$); 28.2&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;0.5&#xb0;C optimal temperature (To$({T}_{o}$); and 41.0&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;1.7&#xb0;C ceiling temperature (Tc$({T}_{c}$). Seeds exposed to 36.0&#xb0;C achieved over 10% germination, and embryos of ungerminated seeds presented 76% viability. Overall, germinability remained relatively low at constant temperatures (&#x2264;25%) but was close to 90% under alternating daily temperatures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to diurnally fluctuating temperatures is essential for this species to achieve high germination rates. Our study reveals that I. pseudacorus has a broad germination niche supporting its establishment in a relatively wide range of environments, including at high temperatures more frequent with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35716047, year = {2022}, author = {Zhu, BR and Verhoeven, MA and Velasco, N and Sanchez-Aguilar, L and Zhang, Z and Piersma, T}, title = {Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black-tailed Godwits in Asia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {18}, pages = {5416-5426}, pmid = {35716047}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Charadriiformes ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Habitat loss and shifts associated with climate change threaten global biodiversity, with impacts likely to be most pronounced at high latitudes. With the disappearance of the tundra breeding habitats, migratory shorebirds that breed at these high latitudes are likely to be even more vulnerable to climate change than those in temperate regions. We examined this idea using new distributional information on two subspecies of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa in Asia: the northerly, bog-breeding L. l. bohaii and the more southerly, steppe-breeding L. l. melanuroides. Based on breeding locations of tagged and molecularly assayed birds, we modelled the current breeding distributions of the two subspecies with species distribution models, tested those models for robustness and then used them to predict climatically suitable breeding ranges in 2070 according to bioclimatic variables and different climate change scenarios. Our models were robust and showed that climate change is expected to push bohaii into the northern rim of the Eurasian continent. Melanuroides is also expected to shift northward, stopping in the Yablonovyy and Stanovoy Ranges, and breeding elevation is expected to increase. Climatically suitable breeding habitat ranges would shrink to 16% and 11% of the currently estimated ranges of bohaii and melanuroides, respectively. Overall, this study provides the first predictions for the future distributions of two little-known Black-tailed Godwit subspecies and highlights the importance of factoring in shifts in bird distribution when designing climate-proof conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid35714160, year = {2022}, author = {Singh, L and Kanwar, N and Bhatt, ID and Nandi, SK and Bisht, AK}, title = {Predicting the potential distribution of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soo-an important medicinal orchid in the West Himalaya, under multiple climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {e0269673}, pmid = {35714160}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Climate variability coupled with anthropogenic pressures is the most critical driver in the Himalayan region for forest ecosystem vulnerability. Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D.Don) Soo is an important yet highly threatened medicinal orchid from the Himalayan region. Poor regenerative power and growing demand have resulted in the steep decline of its natural habitats populations. The present study aims to identify the habitat suitability of D. hatagirea in the Western Himalaya using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The community climate system model (CCSM ver. 4) based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was used to determine suitable future areas. Sixteen least correlated (< 0.8) bioclimatic, topographical and geomorphic variables were used to construct the species climatic niche. The dominant contributing variables were elevation (34.85%) followed by precipitation of the coldest quarter (23.04%), soil type (8.77%), land use land cover (8.26%), mean annual temperature (5.51%), and temperature seasonality (5.11%). Compared to the present distribution, habitat suitability under future projection, i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2050 and 2070), was found to shift to higher elevation towards the northwest direction, while lower altitudes will invariably be less suitable. Further, as compared to the current distribution, the climatic niche space of the species is expected to expand in between11.41-22.13% in the near future. High habitats suitability areas are mainly concentrated in the forest range like Dharchula and Munsyari range, Pindar valley, Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary, West of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, and Uttarkashi forest division. The present study delineated the fundamental niche baseline map of D. hatagirea in the Western Himalayas and highlighted regions/areas where conservation and management strategies should be intensified in the next 50 years. In addition, as the species is commercially exploited illegally, the information gathered is essential for conservationists and planners who protect the species at the regional levels.}, }
@article {pmid35713697, year = {2022}, author = {Parkes, B and Buzan, JR and Huber, M}, title = {Heat stress in Africa under high intensity climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {8}, pages = {1531-1545}, pmid = {35713697}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Air Conditioning ; *Climate Change ; *Heat Stress Disorders/prevention &amp; control ; Heat-Shock Response ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Extreme weather events are major causes of loss of life and damage infrastructure worldwide. High temperatures cause heat stress on humans, livestock, crops and infrastructure. Heat stress exposure is projected to increase with ongoing climate change. Extremes of temperature are common in Africa and infrastructure is often incapable of providing adequate cooling. We show how easily accessible cooling technology, such as evaporative coolers, prevent heat stress in historic timescales but are unsuitable as a solution under climate change. As temperatures increase, powered cooling, such as air conditioning, is necessary to prevent overheating. This will, in turn, increase demand on already stretched infrastructure. We use high temporal resolution climate model data to estimate the demand for cooling according to two metrics, firstly the apparent temperature and secondly the discomfort index. For each grid cell we calculate the heat stress value and the amount of cooling required to turn a heat stress event into a non heat stress event. We show the increase in demand for cooling in Africa is non uniform and that equatorial countries are exposed to higher heat stress than higher latitude countries. We further show that evaporative coolers are less effective in tropical regions than in the extra tropics. Finally, we show that neither low nor high efficiency coolers are sufficient to return Africa to current levels of heat stress under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35713696, year = {2022}, author = {Nili, S and Asadgol, Z and Dalaei, H and Khanjani, N and Bakhtiari, B and Jahani, Y}, title = {The effect of climate change on malaria transmission in the southeast of Iran.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {8}, pages = {1613-1626}, pmid = {35713696}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {99000307//kerman university of medical sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Humans ; Iran/epidemiology ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; Neural Networks, Computer ; }, abstract = {Malaria is a vector-borne disease, likely to be affected by climate change. In this study, general circulation model (GCM)-based scenarios were used for projecting future climate patterns and malaria incidence by artificial neural networks (ANN) in Zahedan district, Iran. Daily malaria incidence data of Zahedan district from 2000 to 2019 were inquired. The gamma test was used to select the appropriate combination of parameters for nonlinear modeling. The future climate pattern projections were obtained from HadGEM2-ES. The output was downscaled using LARS-WG stochastic weather generator under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The effect of climate change on malaria transmission for 2021-2060 was simulated by ANN. The designed model indicated that the future climate in Zahedan district will be warmer, more humid, and with more precipitation. Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the incidence of malaria by ANN showed the number of malaria cases in Zahedan under both scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5). It should be noted that due to the lack of daily malaria data before 2013, monthly data from 2000 were used only for initial analysis; and in preprocessing and simulation analyses, the daily malaria data from 2013 to 2019 were used. Therefore, if proper interventions are not implemented, malaria will continue to be a health issue in this region.}, }
@article {pmid35712360, year = {2022}, author = {Habeeb, B and Bastidas-Arteaga, E}, title = {Climate change indicators dataset for coastal locations of the European Atlantic area.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {43}, number = {}, pages = {108339}, pmid = {35712360}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Over time, considerable changes in the earth's climate have always occurred due to a wide variety of natural processes. During the last century, these natural changes have all been accelerated by global warming, which has been driven by human activities. Climate change leads to wide variations in environmental variables such as temperature, relative humidity, carbon dioxide, etc. These changes could adversely affect the performance, serviceability, and safety of infrastructure assets. The challenge, therefore, is to not only understand the effect of extreme events and their links to climate change, but also to obtain data that could be used for assessing long-term gradual effects affecting infrastructure assets. In this paper is presented a climate indicators database that was collected and provided in an excel format. This database could be used for assessing the durability, vulnerability, and cost-effectiveness of adaptation measures for coastal infrastructure assets. The database contains information for specific coastal locations placed in five European countries: Caxias (Portugal), Saint Nazaire (France), Vigo (Spain), Brighton (UK), Dublin and Cork (Ireland). The database includes atmospheric, and oceanic indicators, as well as and the flow of rivers. It covers a time series of up to 2100 with various representative concentration pathways and climate models.}, }
@article {pmid35712272, year = {2022}, author = {Bhatia, S and Bansal, D and Patil, S and Pandya, S and Ilyas, QM and Imran, S}, title = {A Retrospective Study of Climate Change Affecting Dengue: Evidences, Challenges and Future Directions.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {884645}, pmid = {35712272}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Retrospective Studies ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change is unexpected weather patterns that can create an alarming situation. Due to climate change, various sectors are affected, and one of the sectors is healthcare. As a result of climate change, the geographic range of several vector-borne human infectious diseases will expand. Currently, dengue is taking its toll, and climate change is one of the key reasons contributing to the intensification of dengue disease transmission. The most important climatic factors linked to dengue transmission are temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. The present study carries out a systematic literature review on the surveillance system to predict dengue outbreaks based on Machine Learning modeling techniques. The systematic literature review discusses the methodology and objectives, the number of studies carried out in different regions and periods, the association between climatic factors and the increase in positive dengue cases. This study also includes a detailed investigation of meteorological data, the dengue positive patient data, and the pre-processing techniques used for data cleaning. Furthermore, correlation techniques in several studies to determine the relationship between dengue incidence and meteorological parameters and machine learning models for predictive analysis are discussed. In the future direction for creating a dengue surveillance system, several research challenges and limitations of current work are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid35712136, year = {2022}, author = {Yousafzai, MT and Shah, T and Khan, S and Ullah, S and Nawaz, M and Han, H and Ariza-Montes, A and Molina-Sánchez, H and Vega-Muñoz, A}, title = {Assessing Socioeconomic Risks of Climate Change on Tenant Farmers in Pakistan.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {870555}, pmid = {35712136}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {The study uses a transformative worldview to give voice to an economically marginalized group of tenant farmers vulnerable to climate changes due to their calamity prone geographical location. Drawing on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory lens, we examine the impact of manmade actions on climate change in District "Swat" and "Malakand" of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, Pakistan using a sequential mixed methods research design. Through this research design, the results of quantitative survey were complemented with a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. In first phase, we conducted a survey of 200 tenant farmers, followed by second wave of data collection involving 12 open-ended in-depth interviews (IDIs). The both qualitative and quantitative results suggest that farmers in both districts are affected by climate change although their crop yield had progressively increased signaling better coping and survival skills than other parts of country. Majority of respondents believed that climate change is something beyond their control in disagreement with AGW theory. Major economic losses were specifically, due to sudden alterations in weather patterns, such as floods, and hailstorms that reduce productivity as well as results in food waste with no avenues available to reclaim the energy laden in organic food waste. Besides, a productivity loss was attributed to outdated farming, lack of awareness regarding sharecropping and crop loan insurance practices. The study concludes that farmers are most vulnerable to climate change in socioeconomic terms as such changes impact their income sources; This inwardly compels cash strapped tenant farmers to delve in practice of informal credit with substantive risks attached which further deteriorates their livelihoods. The study offers understanding of how low-literate and economically marginalized indigenous tenant farmers cope to climate change and offers policy recommendations to advocate for the rights to earn sustainable livelihoods in the face of grand climate challenge.}, }
@article {pmid35712042, year = {2022}, author = {Dannevig, H and Korsbrekke, MH and Hovelsrud, GK}, title = {Advancements of sustainable development goals in co-production for climate change adaptation research.}, journal = {Climate risk management}, volume = {36}, number = {}, pages = {None}, pmid = {35712042}, issn = {2212-0963}, abstract = {The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is a new discursive regime that encompasses global environmental change challenges and sustainability sciences, including adaptation to climate change. Co-production of knowledge has become a key, intrinsic component in both sustainability sciences and adaptation research. In this review article, we investigate if and how the SDG agenda is included in the application of participatory approaches and co-production of knowledge for climate change adaptation. We review findings from such processes in projects whose objective is to foster adaptation in the context of SDGs and to categorize the methods employed to forward co-production. We investigate 1) whether and how co-production approaches localize SDG targets and address tradeoffs and synergies, 2) whether they focus on power asymmetries and political dimensions in such participatory processes, and 3) whether and how the literature show that the SDG agenda contributes to a shift in the role of researchers towards a more interventionist approach to co-production. Our results show that there is little evidence that the SDG agenda contributes to a shift towards more interventionist or transformative approaches within climate change adaptation. Further, we have a identified a missed opportunity in the exclusion of "social" SDGs (SDG 5 and 10) in the discussions of adaptation and co-production and SGDs. Most importantly, we find that participatory efforts, including the co-production of knowledge, for localizing SDG goals and resolving tradeoffs and benefits, are the most salient aspects that tie the three co-production - adaptation - the SDG agenda together. Such participatory localizing processes have a great potential in facilitating long-enduring empowerment and legitimacy in adaptation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid35711997, year = {2022}, author = {Caven, AJ and Wiese, JD}, title = {Reinventory of the vascular plants of Mormon Island Crane Meadows after forty years of restoration, invasion, and climate change.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e09640}, pmid = {35711997}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The majority of tallgrass prairie has been lost from North America's Great Plains, but remaining tracts often support significant biodiversity. Despite permanent protections for some remnants, they continue to face anthropogenic threats including habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and climate change. Conservationists have sought to buffer remnants from threats using prairie restoration but limited research has assessed such practices at the landscape-level. We reexamine the flora of Mormon Island, the largest tract of lowland tallgrass prairie remaining in the Central Platte River Valley (CPRV) of Nebraska, USA, nearly 40-years after it was initially inventoried and following widespread restoration. We also conducted preliminary inventories of nearby Shoemaker Island and adjacent off-island habitats using an ecotope-based stratified random sampling approach. We examined change at Mormon Island between 1980-1981 and 2015-2020 and compared it to adjacent conservation lands using a number of vegetation indices. We documented 389 vascular plant species on Mormon Island, 405 on Shoemaker Island, and 337 on off-island habitats from 2015-2020, which represented an increase in native and exotic species richness on Mormon Island compared to 1980-1981 results. Floristic quality index (FQI) values increased at Mormon Island between 1980-1981 and 2015-2020. Paradoxically, the distribution of exotic-invasive species also expanded. Mormon Island from 2015-2020 was more similar to Shoemaker Island and off-island habitats from 2015-2020 than Mormon Island from 1980-1981. Widespread restoration introduced a number of high conservation value species native to Nebraska but novel to the CPRV, which improved FQIs despite increased exotic species invasion. These concurrent trends appear to have driven biological homogenization across the study area. Restoration did not fully buffer Mormon Island from exotic species invasion but it may have partially mitigated the impact considering the persistence of most native species across a 40-year period. We recommend using "local ecotype" seed for restorations to preserve distinctive local communities.}, }
@article {pmid35711097, year = {2022}, author = {McColl-Gausden, SC and Bennett, LT and Clarke, HG and Ababei, DA and Penman, TD}, title = {The fuel-climate-fire conundrum: How will fire regimes change in temperate eucalypt forests under climate change?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {17}, pages = {5211-5226}, pmid = {35711097}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Weather ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Fire regimes are changing across the globe in response to complex interactions between climate, fuel, and fire across space and time. Despite these complex interactions, research into predicting fire regime change is often unidimensional, typically focusing on direct relationships between fire activity and climate, increasing the chances of erroneous fire predictions that have ignored feedbacks with, for example, fuel loads and availability. Here, we quantify the direct and indirect role of climate on fire regime change in eucalypt dominated landscapes using a novel simulation approach that uses a landscape fire modelling framework to simulate fire regimes over decades to centuries. We estimated the relative roles of climate-mediated changes as both direct effects on fire weather and indirect effects on fuel load and structure in a full factorial simulation experiment (present and future weather, present and future fuel) that included six climate ensemble members. We applied this simulation framework to predict changes in fire regimes across six temperate forested landscapes in south-eastern Australia that encompass a broad continuum from climate-limited to fuel-limited. Climate-mediated change in weather and fuel was predicted to intensify fire regimes in all six landscapes by increasing wildfire extent and intensity and decreasing fire interval, potentially led by an earlier start to the fire season. Future weather was the dominant factor influencing changes in all the tested fire regime attributes: area burnt, area burnt at high intensity, fire interval, high-intensity fire interval, and season midpoint. However, effects of future fuel acted synergistically or antagonistically with future weather depending on the landscape and the fire regime attribute. Our results suggest that fire regimes are likely to shift across temperate ecosystems in south-eastern Australia in coming decades, particularly in climate-limited systems where there is the potential for a greater availability of fuels to burn through increased aridity.}, }
@article {pmid35710997, year = {2022}, author = {Guglielmi, G}, title = {Climate change is turning more of Central Asia into desert.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {35710997}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid35710526, year = {2022}, author = {Edlinger, M and Schneider, M and Lagally, L and Lob-Corzilius, T and Mertes, H and Deering, K and Schoierer, J and Böse-O'Reilly, S}, title = {[Climate change and child health: A nationwide survey among paediatricians in Germany].}, journal = {Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen}, volume = {172}, number = {}, pages = {102-111}, doi = {10.1016/j.zefq.2022.03.007}, pmid = {35710526}, issn = {2212-0289}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Germany ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Pediatricians ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Children are a vulnerable group affected by climate change. Paediatricians are important actors in protecting children from climate change-related health risks and in identifying and treating relevant health effects. The main objectives of this study were to determine how paediatricians assess the relevance of climate change-related health impacts, through which channels paediatricians can be reached most effectively, how often climate change-specific prevention measures are implemented and how they are assessed.<br><br>METHODS: Between February and July 2020, an online survey was conducted among paediatricians. The cross-sectional survey was designed to gather knowledge and attitudes about the relevance of climate change, sources of information and prevention measures. All participants who answered only one question or none at all were excluded. Differences between groups were determined using one-factorial analysis of variance. Correlations were determined using Pearson's bivariate correlation analysis and tested for two-sided significance.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 408 questionnaires were analysed. Over 95% of the respondents were paediatricians, with just under half of them working in children's hospitals and a good third in paediatric practices. According to paediatricians, climate change has a relevant impact on children's health. The most significant effects on children's health were considered to be longer and stronger pollen seasons, neophytes and neozoa, Lyme disease and TBE (tick-borne encephalitis, summer meningoencephalitis), UV radiation and air pollutants. Certified training options in professional journals and participation in lectures or workshops at relevant congresses were identified as the two preferred types of training. Especially professional journals as the most frequently used source of information could function as a suitable tool to reach as many paediatricians as possible. 76% of the paediatricians have not yet carried out any corresponding prevention activities, although information activities for parents or children were seen as being effective by 80%. Whereas the possibilities of integrating climate change-oriented prevention activities into everyday practice, were perceived less positively. The most frequent reason given was lack of time.<br><br>DISCUSSION: To satisfy this future need for knowledge, but also for offerings from paediatricians for patients and their parents, concrete further continuous education and consultancy services must be prepared. In the future, further training offers, including the consultancy services, should be integrated into profession-specific training modules, presented at congresses, and then implemented into paediatricians' daily routine.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results of the study illustrate that the topic "climate change and health" has a high relevance for paediatricians and that information measures for parents are considered to be effective. Although paediatricians are concerned with the topic, there is an implementation deficit. Support is needed in the form of intensifying awareness-raising projects and educational modules for paediatricians to move from knowledge to action.}, }
@article {pmid35709266, year = {2022}, author = {Voosen, P}, title = {Studies tying weather extremes to global warming gain rigor.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {376}, number = {6599}, pages = {1256-1257}, doi = {10.1126/science.add4866}, pmid = {35709266}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Floods ; *Global Warming ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Record-shattering events spur climate attribution advances.}, }
@article {pmid35707618, year = {2022}, author = {Navarro, JM and Antolinos, V and Robles, JM and Botía, P}, title = {Citrus Irrigation With Desalinated Seawater Under a Climate Change Scenario.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {909083}, pmid = {35707618}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {In arid and semiarid regions, the current lack of natural water resources is driving the use of alternative sources for crop irrigation, such as desalinated seawater (DSW). However, the use of DSW could affect the crop productivity due to its chemical composition (predominance of phytotoxic ions: Na[+], Cl[-], and B). Citrus species are classified as salt and boron-sensitive; however, the rootstock plays a fundamental role in the tree's tolerance of abiotic stresses. One-year-old 'Verna' lemon trees grafted on two rootstocks (CM, Citrus macrophylla, and SO, sour orange) were used. These rootstocks differ in their salinity and boron tolerance, SO being more tolerant than CM. The experiment was carried out at high temperature (35/27°C), and the plants were irrigated with three types of water supplemented with Hoagland nutrients: DSW, DLB (DSW with low boron), and Control (distilled water). The plants were irrigated three times per week and harvested 7 months after the treatments started. The response to high levels of Cl[-], Na[+], and B was rootstock-dependent. Under the high temperature conditions, the growth of plants grafted on SO was not affected by DSW, and these plants did not reach the Cl[-] threshold of phytotoxicity, so the decrease in the shoot growth of plants grafted on CM due to DSW irrigation was related more to Cl[-] rather than the foliar Na[+] accumulation. Plants grafted on SO and irrigated with DSW accumulated more B than those grafted on CM, surpassing the threshold of phytotoxicity and producing greater oxidative stress. As the growth of these plants was not reduced, the effects of DSW on plant growth were not directly related to the concentration of B and there must be some mechanisms that allow these plants to withstand the negative effects of high foliar B, such as the increased levels of quaternary ammonium compounds. Since the response of citrus plants to DSW depended on the rootstock, the results obtained in this experiment, using DSW at high temperature, could be useful for the future management of citrus crops, because climate change will increase temperatures and exacerbate the scarcity of water resources in citrus-growing areas.}, }
@article {pmid35706391, year = {2022}, author = {Pastore, MA}, title = {Bringing the underground to the surface: Climate change stressors negatively affect plant growth, with contrasting above and belowground physiological responses.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {45}, number = {8}, pages = {2267-2270}, pmid = {35706391}, issn = {1365-3040}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plant Development ; Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid35706381, year = {2022}, author = {Osborne, BB and Bestelmeyer, BT and Currier, CM and Homyak, PM and Throop, HL and Young, K and Reed, SC}, title = {The consequences of climate change for dryland biogeochemistry.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {236}, number = {1}, pages = {15-20}, doi = {10.1111/nph.18312}, pmid = {35706381}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Soil ; Water ; }, abstract = {Drylands, which cover > 40% of Earth's terrestrial surface, are dominant drivers of global biogeochemical cycling and home to more than one third of the global human population. Climate projections predict warming, drought frequency and severity, and evaporative demand will increase in drylands at faster rates than global means. As a consequence of extreme temperatures and high biological dependency on limited water availability, drylands are predicted to be exceptionally sensitive to climate change and, indeed, significant climate impacts are already being observed. However, our understanding and ability to forecast climate change effects on dryland biogeochemistry and ecosystem functions lag behind many mesic systems. To improve our capacity to forecast ecosystem change, we propose focusing on the controls and consequences of two key characteristics affecting dryland biogeochemistry: (1) high spatial and temporal heterogeneity in environmental conditions and (2) generalized resource scarcity. In addition to climate change, drylands are experiencing accelerating land-use change. Building our understanding of dryland biogeochemistry in both intact and disturbed systems will better equip us to address the interacting effects of climate change and landscape degradation. Responding to these challenges will require a diverse, globally distributed and interdisciplinary community of dryland experts united towards better understanding these vast and important ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid35705891, year = {2022}, author = {Seritan, AL and Hasser, C and Burke, MG and Bussmann, GL and Charlesworth, A and Cooper, R and Fortuna, LR and Herbst, ED and Jayaratne, A and Richards, A and Stuart, BK and Epel, E}, title = {Correction to: The Climate Change and Mental Health Task Force: One Academic Psychiatry Department's Efforts to Heed the Call to Action.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {590}, doi = {10.1007/s40596-022-01672-7}, pmid = {35705891}, issn = {1545-7230}, }
@article {pmid35704486, year = {2022}, author = {Solomon, CG and Salas, RN and Malina, D and Sacks, CA and Hardin, CC and Prewitt, E and Lee, TH and Rubin, EJ}, title = {Fossil-Fuel Pollution and Climate Change - A New NEJM Group Series.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {386}, number = {24}, pages = {2328-2329}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMe2206300}, pmid = {35704486}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; *Fossil Fuels/adverse effects/analysis ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35704482, year = {2022}, author = {Perera, F and Nadeau, K}, title = {Climate Change, Fossil-Fuel Pollution, and Children's Health.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {386}, number = {24}, pages = {2303-2314}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMra2117706}, pmid = {35704482}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; *Fossil Fuels/adverse effects/analysis ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35703632, year = {2022}, author = {Amani-Male, O and Feizabadi, Y and Norouzi, G}, title = {A model-based evaluation of farmers' income variability under climate change (case study: autumn crops in Iran).}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {84}, number = {}, pages = {e261997}, doi = {10.1590/1519-6984.261997}, pmid = {35703632}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Iran ; Seasons ; Triticum ; }, abstract = {The study strives to analyze the potential variations of farmers' income under climate change by using Ricardian approach. The case study was Mazandaran province of Iran and three autumn crops, i.e. wheat, barley and canola were considered as the investigated crops. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model was selected to downscale the climate data. Three climate variables were downscaled for the years 2020-2080 under three climate scenarios: optimistic (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RCP8.5). The Ricardian approach was also employed to predict the economics of climate change. Accordingly, the mean monthly temperature of the province is projected to have an upward trend under all climate scenarios, however, the rainfall pattern would be varied. The results of economic impacts of climate change also approved that the net income of investigated crops would be different trends under climate change scenarios. Accordingly, the variations of air temperature and rainfall would lead that the net income increases for wheat and barley, while it decreases for canola.}, }
@article {pmid35703625, year = {2022}, author = {Selcuk, MA and Celik, F and Simsek, S and Ahmed, H and Kesik, HK and Kilinc, SG and Cao, J}, title = {Genetic, haplotype and phylogenetic analysis of Ligula intestinalis by using mt-CO1 gene marker: ecological implications, climate change and eco-genetic diversity.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {84}, number = {}, pages = {e258626}, doi = {10.1590/1519-6984.258626}, pmid = {35703625}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {Animals ; *Cestoda ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Variation/genetics ; Haplotypes ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Ligula intestinalis is a cestode parasite that affects freshwater fish in different countries of the world. The current study aims to reveal the phylogenetic, genetic and haplotype diversity of mt-CO1 gene sequences sent to the NCBI database from different countries by using in-silico analysis. The 105 mt-CO1 (371 bp) gene sequences of L. intestinalis obtained from NCBI were used for bioinformatics analyses. Sequences were subjected to phylogenetic and haplotype analysis. As a result of the haplotype analysis of L. intestinalis, 38 haplotypes were obtained from 13 different countries. Hap24 constituted 44.76% of the obtained haplotype network. Changes in nucleotides between haplotypes occurred at 1-84 different points. China and Turkey have highest fixation index (Fst) values of 0.59761, while the lowest (-0.10526) was found between Russia and Turkey. This study provides a baseline for future studies on extensive scale on the epidemiology, ecological aspects, distribution pattern, transmission dynamics and population dispersion of L. intestinalis worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid35701014, year = {2022}, author = {Dasandi, N and Cai, W and Friberg, P and Jankin, S and Kuylenstierna, J and Nilsson, M}, title = {The inclusion of health in major global reports on climate change and biodiversity.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {7}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {35701014}, issn = {2059-7908}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; }, abstract = {This article argues that human health has become a key consideration in recent global reports on climate change and biodiversity produced by various international organisations; however, greater attention must be given to the unequal health impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss around the world and the different health adaptation measures that are urgently required.}, }
@article {pmid35699329, year = {2022}, author = {Johnson, SS}, title = {Creating Shared Value to Advance Racial Justice, Health Equity, and Meaningful Action on Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of health promotion : AJHP}, volume = {36}, number = {6}, pages = {1045-1047}, doi = {10.1177/08901171221092576a}, pmid = {35699329}, issn = {2168-6602}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Community Participation ; *Health Equity ; Humans ; Racial Groups ; Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid35699325, year = {2022}, author = {Johnson, SS}, title = {Knowing Well, Being Well: well-being born of understanding: Creating Shared Value to Advance Racial Justice, Health Equity, and Meaningful Action on Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of health promotion : AJHP}, volume = {36}, number = {6}, pages = {1045-1067}, doi = {10.1177/08901171221092576}, pmid = {35699325}, issn = {2168-6602}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Community Participation ; *Health Equity ; Humans ; Racial Groups ; Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid35699252, year = {2022}, author = {Austin, MW and Cole, PO and Olsen, KM and Smith, AB}, title = {Climate change is associated with increased allocation to potential outcrossing in a common mixed mating species.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {109}, number = {7}, pages = {1085-1096}, pmid = {35699252}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Flowers ; *Pollination ; Reproduction ; Self-Fertilization ; Water ; }, abstract = {PREMISE: Although the balance between cross- and self-fertilization is driven by the environment, no long-term study has documented whether anthropogenic climate change is affecting reproductive strategy allocation in species with mixed mating systems. Here, we test whether the common blue violet (Viola sororia; Violaceae) has altered relative allocation to the production of potentially outcrossing flowers as the climate has changed throughout the 20th century.<br><br>METHODS: Using herbarium records spanning from 1875 to 2015 from the central United States, we quantified production of obligately selfing cleistogamous (CL) flowers and potentially outcrossing chasmogamous (CH) flowers by V. sororia, coupled these records with historic temperature and precipitation data, and tested whether changes to the proportion of CL flowers correlate with temporal climate trends.<br><br>RESULTS: We find that V. sororia progressively produced lower proportions of CL flowers across the past century and in environments with lower mean annual temperature and higher total annual precipitation. We also find that both CL and CH flower phenology has advanced across this time period.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that V. sororia has responded to lower temperatures and greater water availability by shifting reproductive strategy allocation away from selfing and toward potential outcrossing. This provides the first long-term study of how climate change may affect relative allocation to potential outcrossing in species with mixed mating systems. By revealing that CL flowering is associated with low water availability and high temperature, our results suggest the production of obligately selfing flowers is favored in water limited environments.}, }
@article {pmid35698263, year = {2022}, author = {Kitchel, ZJ and Conrad, HM and Selden, RL and Pinsky, ML}, title = {The role of continental shelf bathymetry in shaping marine range shifts in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {17}, pages = {5185-5199}, pmid = {35698263}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Data Collection ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {As a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, marine species on continental shelves around the world are rapidly shifting deeper and poleward. However, whether these shifts deeper and poleward will allow species to access more, less, or equivalent amounts of continental shelf area and associated critical habitats remains unclear. By examining the proportion of seabed area at a range of depths for each large marine ecosystem (LME), we found that shelf area declined monotonically for 19% of LMEs examined. However, the majority exhibited a greater proportion of shelf area in mid-depths or across several depth ranges. By comparing continental shelf area across 2° latitudinal bands, we found that all coastlines exhibit multiple instances of shelf area expansion and contraction, which have the potential to promote or restrict poleward movement of marine species. Along most coastlines, overall shelf habitat increases or exhibits no significant change moving towards the poles. The exception is the Southern West Pacific, which experiences an overall loss of area with increasing latitude. Changes in continental shelf area availability across latitudes and depths are likely to affect the number of species local ecosystems can support. These geometric analyses help identify regions of conservation priority and ecological communities most likely to face attrition or expansion due to variations in available area.}, }
@article {pmid35697789, year = {2022}, author = {Correia, HE and Tveraa, T and Stien, A and Yoccoz, N}, title = {Correction to: Nonlinear spatial and temporal decomposition provides insight for climate change effects on sub-Arctic herbivore populations.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {199}, number = {3}, pages = {753}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-022-05205-9}, pmid = {35697789}, issn = {1432-1939}, }
@article {pmid35697221, year = {2022}, author = {Badrzadeh, N and Samani, JMV and Mazaheri, M and Kuriqi, A}, title = {Evaluation of management practices on agricultural nonpoint source pollution discharges into the rivers under climate change effects.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {838}, number = {Pt 4}, pages = {156643}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156643}, pmid = {35697221}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Environmental Pollutants ; Fertilizers ; Nitrates/analysis ; *Non-Point Source Pollution ; Phosphates ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; Water Pollution/analysis/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {In recent years, agricultural non-point source pollution (ANPSP) has become the biggest threat to Aras River water quality by completing the Mughan irrigation and drainage network. Nutrient pollutants, including nitrate and phosphate, released into the river through drains have created a range of obstacles for locals living around the river. Agricultural activities are generally considered the largest source of non-point pollution. They have no complex and uniform impact along the river. Thus, the spatial distribution of ANPS and highly polluted areas should be identified to manage watershed management. This study proposes a simple framework for identifying pollutant-sensitive areas along the river and management strategies to improve water quality. To this aim, the main factors affecting ANPSP were identified, and the effectiveness of the scenarios selected to comply with water quality regulations for drinking and environment during 1993-2007 were simulated. Based on the sensitivity analysis, land use and fertilizer are the main factors affecting river ANPSP. Thus, their changes were modeled in different scenarios. Based on the results, the ANPSP load was higher downstream. The agricultural lands in region 3 were considered the main source of pollution. Comparing the management scenarios showed that the amount of nitrate and phosphate leaching into the river decreased to 18.1 and 8.35 %, respectively, by reducing the consumption of urea and phosphate fertilizers by 50 %. The results help watershed managers implement eco-friendly land use and nutrient management programs at specific locations during specific periods to control ANPSP along the rivers.}, }
@article {pmid35696127, year = {2022}, author = {Lambert, J}, title = {Tick Borne Infections in the EU:A New Epidemic in the Face of Global Warming.}, journal = {Irish medical journal}, volume = {115}, number = {5}, pages = {594}, pmid = {35696127}, issn = {0332-3102}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Humans ; *Tick-Borne Diseases/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid35695436, year = {2022}, author = {Lokotola, CL and Mash, R}, title = {Climate change and primary health care in Africa - A call for short reports.}, journal = {African journal of primary health care &amp; family medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-e2}, pmid = {35695436}, issn = {2071-2936}, mesh = {Africa ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Primary Health Care ; }, abstract = {No abstract available.}, }
@article {pmid35693511, year = {2022}, author = {Jansma, A and van den Bos, K and de Graaf, BA}, title = {Unfairness in Society and Over Time: Understanding Possible Radicalization of People Protesting on Matters of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {778894}, pmid = {35693511}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {In this manuscript, we introduce a theoretical model of climate radicalization that integrates social psychological theories of perceived unfairness with historical insights on radicalization to contribute to the knowledge of individuals' processes of radicalization and non-radicalization in relation to climate change. We define climate radicalization as a process of growing willingness to pursue and/or support radical changes in society that are in conflict with or could pose a threat to the status quo or democratic legal order to reach climate goals. We describe how perceptions of unfairness can play a pivotal role in processes of climate change related radicalization. Without taking any position or judgment regarding climate concerns and associated actions, we suggest that although these behaviors drive many people to participate in peaceful climate protest, they may also lead others to radicalize into breaking the law to achieve their climate goals, possibly in violent ways. This process of climate radicalization, we argue, can be driven by people perceiving certain situations to be blatantly unfair. Specifically, we discuss how radical attitudes and behaviors can be products of perceived unfairness stemming from the past, the future, the immediate social environments of perceivers, as well as those that are spatially distant from them. We further argue that because radicalization processes are shaped by an interaction between individuals and movements, on the one hand, and societal actors and developments, on the other, they tend to develop in non-linear and dynamic ways. We therefore propose that climate radicalization is a (1) dynamic, contingent, and non-linear process, often of an escalating (and sometimes de-escalating) kind, (2) that develops over time, (3) through various interactions between individuals and their contexts, and (4) in which people and groups move back and forth from peaceful protest, through disobedient and unlawful methods, to violent actions. Implications, strengths, and limitations of our model are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid35693463, year = {2022}, author = {Luschkova, D and Traidl-Hoffmann, C and Ludwig, A}, title = {Climate change and allergies.}, journal = {Allergo journal international}, volume = {31}, number = {4}, pages = {114-120}, pmid = {35693463}, issn = {2197-0378}, abstract = {The climate crisis poses a major challenge to human health as well as the healthcare system and threatens to jeopardize the medical progress made in recent decades. However, addressing climate change may also be the greatest opportunity for global health in the 21st century. The climate crisis and its consequences, such as rising temperatures, forest fires, floods, droughts, and changes in the quality and quantity of food and water, directly and indirectly affect human physical and mental health. More intense and frequent heat waves and declining air quality have been shown to increase all-cause mortality, especially among the most vulnerable. Climate warming alters existing ecosystems and favors biological invasions by species that better tolerate heat and drought. Pathogen profiles are changing, and the transmission and spread of vector-borne diseases are increasing. The spread of neophytes in Europe, such as ragweed, is creating new pollen sources that increase allergen exposure for allergy sufferers. In addition, the overall milder weather, especially in combination with air pollution and increased CO2 levels, is changing the production and allergenicity of pollen. The phenomenon of thunderstorm asthma is also occurring more frequently. In view of the increasing prevalence of allergic diseases due to climate change, early causal immunomodulatory therapy is therefore all the more important. During a climate consultation, patients can receive individual advice on climate adaptation and resilience and the benefits of CO2 reduction-for their own and the planet's health. Almost 5% of all greenhouse gas emissions in Europe come from the healthcare sector. It thus has a central responsibility for a climate-neutral and sustainable transformation.}, }
@article {pmid35693157, year = {2022}, author = {Arias, LA and Berli, F and Fontana, A and Bottini, R and Piccoli, P}, title = {Climate Change Effects on Grapevine Physiology and Biochemistry: Benefits and Challenges of High Altitude as an Adaptation Strategy.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {835425}, pmid = {35693157}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Grapevine berry quality for winemaking depends on complex and dynamic relationships between the plant and the environment. Winemakers around the world are demanding a better understanding of the factors that influence berry growth and development. In the last decades, an increment in air temperature, CO2 concentration and dryness occurred in wine-producing regions, affecting the physiology and the biochemistry of grapevines, and by consequence the berry quality. The scientific community mostly agrees in a further raise as a result of climate change during the rest of the century. As a consequence, areas most suitable for viticulture are likely to shift into higher altitudes where mean temperatures are suitable for grape cultivation. High altitude can be defined as the minimum altitude at which the grapevine growth and development are differentially affected. At these high altitudes, the environments are characterized by high thermal amplitudes and great solar radiations, especially ultraviolet-B (UV-B). This review summarizes the environmental contribution of global high altitude-related climatic variables to the grapevine physiology and wine composition, for a better evaluation of the possible establishment of vineyards at high altitude in climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid35692568, year = {2021}, author = {Junqueira, AB and Fernández-Llamazares, &#xc1; and Torrents-Ticó, M and Hara, PL and Naasak, JG and Burgas, D and Fraixedas, S and Cabeza, M and Reyes-García, V}, title = {Interactions between climate change and infrastructure projects in changing water resources: An ethnobiological perspective from the Daasanach, Kenya.}, journal = {Journal of ethnobiology}, volume = {41}, number = {3}, pages = {331-348}, pmid = {35692568}, issn = {0278-0771}, support = {771056/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {The fast and widespread environmental changes that have intensified in the last decades are bringing disproportionate impacts to Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities. Changes that affect water resources are particularly relevant for subsistence-based peoples, many of whom already suffer from constraints regarding reliable access to safe water. Particularly in areas where water is scarce, climate change is expected to amplify existing stresses in water availability, which are also exacerbated by multiple socioeconomic drivers. In this paper, we look into the local perceptions of environmental change expressed by the Daasanach people of northern Kenya, where the impacts of climate change overlap with those brought by large infrastructure projects recently established in the Omo River. We show that the Daasanach have rich and detailed understanding of changes in their environment, especially in relation to water resources. Daasanach understand observations of change in different elements of the social-ecological system as an outcome of complex interactions between climatic and non-climatic drivers of change. Our findings highlight the perceived synergistic effects of climate change and infrastructure projects in water resources, driving multiple and cascading impacts on biophysical elements and local livelihoods. Our results also demonstrate the potential of Local Ecological Knowledge in enhancing the understanding of complex social-ecological issues, such as the impacts of environmental change in local communities. To minimize and mitigate the social-ecological impacts of development projects, it is essential to consider potential synergies between climatic and socioeconomic factors and to ensure inclusive governance rooted in local understandings of environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid35692216, year = {2022}, author = {Zenios, SA}, title = {The risks from climate change to sovereign debt.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {172}, number = {3-4}, pages = {30}, pmid = {35692216}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The exposure of sovereigns to climate risks is priced and can affect credit ratings and debt servicing costs. I argue that the climate risks to fiscal stability are not receiving adequate attention and discuss how to remedy the situation. After providing evidence of divergent climate risks to advanced economies, I describe the transmission channels from climate change to public finance. Then, I suggest how integrated assessment models (IAMs) can be linked with stochastic debt sustainability analysis (DSA) to inform our understanding of climate risks to sovereign debt dynamics and assess the available fiscal space to finance climate policies. I argue for adopting the narrative scenario architecture developed within the IPCC to bring structure and transparency to the analysis. The analysis is complicated by deep uncertainty -risks, ambiguity, and mis-specifications- of climate change. Using scenario trees, narrative scenarios, and ensembles of models, respectively, we can deal with these three challenges. I illustrate using two prominent IAMs to generate the debt dynamics of a high-debt country under climate risks to economic growth and find adverse effects from as early as 2030. I conclude with the policy implications for fiscal stability authorities.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03373-4.}, }
@article {pmid35691976, year = {2022}, author = {Liu, B and Fan, Y and Xue, B and Wang, T and Chao, Q}, title = {Feature extraction and classification of climate change risks: a bibliometric analysis.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {7}, pages = {495}, pmid = {35691976}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {72134002//national natural science foundation of china/ ; 72002019//national natural science foundation of china/ ; 21JZD029//Key Projects of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research/ ; 2021M700577//Postdoctoral Research Foundation of China/ ; 72074034//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; YS2020001//Bayu Scholar Program/ ; 2021CDSKXYGG013//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China/ ; 2018YFC1509008//national key r&amp;d program of china/ ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Bibliometrics ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; }, abstract = {Risks brought by climate change are inevitable obstacles to global development. Clarifying the features of climate change risks helps us to further understand and cope with climate change. There lacks a systematic review of climate change risks in terms of feature extraction and classification. The bibliometric analysis can be used to analyze and extract climate change risk features. The literature in the field of climate change was searched in the Web of Science database. Coauthors, citations, bibliographic coupling, co-citations, and keyword co-occurrence were analyzed. From five dimensions including nature, politics, economy, society, and culture, the risk features of climate change were extracted and summarized. Through text mining and cluster analysis, the climate change risk feature system was established, which is embodied in five different aspects: ecosystem and sustainability; uncertainty, vulnerability, and efficiency; behavior and decision-making; governance and management; and adaptation and mitigation. The feature system reflects that the current climate change risk presents strong variability and that the risk boundary is gradually blurred. The areas affected by risk are expanding and deepening. The strategies and governance for addressing risks are gradually diversified. This research contributes to the domain of climate change risk identification and assessment. The features of climate change indicate that we need to adjust policymaking and managerial practices for climate change in the future. Interdisciplinary cooperation, human cognition and preferences, public participation in global governance, and other unnatural factors related to climate change should be strengthened with a more positive attitude.}, }
@article {pmid35690202, year = {2022}, author = {Liu, Y and Liu, H and Chen, Y and Gang, C and Shen, Y}, title = {Quantifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation dynamic in China based on multiple indices.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {838}, number = {Pt 4}, pages = {156553}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156553}, pmid = {35690202}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Temperature ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Distinguishing the respective roles of climate change and anthropogenic activities can provide crucial information for sustainable management of the environment. Here, using the residual trend method (RESTREND), which measures the residue of the actual and potential trends of vegetation, we quantified the relative contributions of human activities (e.g., ecological restoration, overgrazing, and urbanization) and climate change (the warmer and wetter trend) to vegetation dynamics in China during 1988-2018 based on multiple vegetation indices, including the vegetation optical depth (Ku-VOD, C-VOD), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and gross primary productivity (GPP). The results showed that the VOD, NDVI, and GPP exhibited overall increasing trends during 1988-2018. Human activities contributed >70% to the increases in NDVI and GPP in China, whereas a counterbalanced contribution of human activities and climate change was identified for the VOD dynamics (51% vs. 49%). Regions with high contributions from human activities to NDVI, GPP, and VOD were located in northeastern, southern, central, and northwestern China. In northern China, the positive impacts of human activities on NDVI (78%) and BEPS-GPP (83%) were greater than those of climate change. In contrast, human activities contributed 96% to the decrease in Ku-VOD over the same period. Before 2000, climate change promoted increases in GPP and NDVI in most regions of southern China. The increasing rates of GPP and NDVI accelerated after 2000 due to afforestation. However, human activities like overgrazing and urbanization have led to decreases in Ku-VOD in northern and southwestern China, and in C-VOD in northeastern, eastern, central, southwestern, and southern China. In all, the relative roles of climate and human factors varied in different regions when NDVI, GPP, or VOD were individually considered. Our results highlighted that the regional-scale vegetation conditions should be taken into full account to achieve sustainable management of ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid35688987, year = {2022}, author = {Prabakaran, R and Sivalingam, V and Kim, SC and Ganesh Kumar, P and Praveen Kumar, G}, title = {Future refrigerants with low global warming potential for residential air conditioning system: a thermodynamic analysis and MCDM tool optimization.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {52}, pages = {78414-78428}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-022-21263-1}, pmid = {35688987}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Air Conditioning ; *Global Warming ; Carbon Dioxide ; Thermodynamics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Increasing CO2 emission due to the practicing of high global warming potential (GWP) refrigerant like R22 in split air conditioning (AC) units needs the best substitute to match with environment and safety protocols along with good energy efficiency. In this study, 14 alternative refrigerants have been chosen to replace R22 in a 1.5 TR capacity of split AC from the existing studies. The performance of each refrigerant has been analysed thermodynamically and compared their results with R22 by accounting for discharge temperature, power consumption, coefficient of performance (COP), total equivalent warming impact (TEWI) index, and life-time cost. Overall from this theoretical analysis, it was observed that the best refrigerant for each considered measure is not unique; for example, R290 was best in terms of refrigerant charge and discharge pressure, while R444B was chosen to be superior in terms of COP, TEWI, and life-time cost. Therefore, a multi-criteria decision-making methodology tool-based optimization has been carried out for selecting a single superior refrigerant for the future by considering thermal properties, COP, TEWI, and life-time cost. Results of the evaluation based on the distance from average solution envisage R290 and R1123 as superior and worst choices to replace R22.}, }
@article {pmid35688613, year = {2022}, author = {Leddin, D and Omary, MB and Metz, G and Veitch, AM}, title = {Climate change: a survey of global gastroenterology society leadership.}, journal = {Gut}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1136/gutjnl-2022-327832}, pmid = {35688613}, issn = {1468-3288}, }
@article {pmid35688175, year = {2022}, author = {Ong, BAG and Rocimo, AMR and Lucero, JAC}, title = {Climate change and haematology: perspectives from the Philippines.}, journal = {The Lancet. Haematology}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {e468-e469}, doi = {10.1016/S2352-3026(22)00174-0}, pmid = {35688175}, issn = {2352-3026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Hematology ; Humans ; Philippines/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid35686793, year = {2022}, author = {Xu, Y and Huang, WT and Dou, SQ and Guo, ZD and Li, XY and Zheng, ZW and Jing, JL}, title = {[Responding Mechanism of Vegetation Cover to Climate Change and Human Activities in Southwest China from 2000 to 2020].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {43}, number = {6}, pages = {3230-3240}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.202108107}, pmid = {35686793}, issn = {0250-3301}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Human Activities ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Studying vegetation cover variation and its responding mechanism to climate change and human activities is of great significance for regional ecological protection and vegetation restoration. In this study, on the basis of MODIS NDVI, in situ climate data, and land use type data using Theil-Sen Median analysis, the Mann-Kendall significance test, residual analysis, partial correlation analysis, and multi-correlation analysis, the spatial and temporal variation in vegetation cover and its response to climate change and the land use/land cover change in each geomorphological unit in southwest China were analyzed. The vegetation cover showed a fluctuant increasing trend, and the changing trend exhibited obvious spatial heterogeneity, with the increasing rate being higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest of southwest China from 2000 to 2020. The vegetation variation was dominated by positive effects of the climate change and human activities in southwest China, and the positive effects were stronger in Guangxi Hill than those in other geomorphological units. Furthermore, from 2000 to 2020 the vegetation cover was positively associated with precipitation and temperature and negatively correlated with relative humidity and sunshine duration in southwest China. Temperature was considered to be the dominate climate factor controlling the vegetation variation in the study area. Urban expansion had decreased the region vegetation cover, but the overall vegetation cover had increased in southwest China due to the suitable regional climate conditions and the implementation of ecological reforestation projection. These results can provide scientific references for ecological protection and economic sustainable development in southwest China.}, }
@article {pmid35686287, year = {2022}, author = {Yost, RC}, title = {Resilience requires change. Assessing Pehuenche responses to climate change impacts in Southern Chile.}, journal = {Environmental justice (Print)}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {185-195}, doi = {10.1089/env.2021.0044}, pmid = {35686287}, issn = {1939-4071}, support = {771056/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Indigenous peoples are one of the most vulnerable groups to climate change. Although many communities are already responding to these impacts, inequitable structures impose barriers to their capacity to recover and adapt. Through the case of the Pehuenche people of Southern Chile, this article addresses the question of what is the relationship between resilience and adaptation to climate change. From an ethnographic approach, the article characterizes the construction process of the contextual vulnerability of Pehuenche communities and evaluates their responses to cope with climate change impacts. Fieldwork was conducted in two stages between 2017 and 2019. Results show that current Pehuenche vulnerability to climate change is an ongoing process influenced by the state rather than a consequence of this phenomenon. Although Pehuenche communities are responding to climate change impacts, their resilience is constrained by the incidence of state policy. Identifying themselves as herders, Pehuenche responses aim to restore the conditions for livestock instead of changing the factors that make them vulnerable. Most of their responses can be considered maladaptation because they reinforce vulnerability by reproducing practices that damage their social capital and cause more pressure on the territory. A critical review and reformulation of the policy implemented at the local level are mandatory to strengthen community resilience.}, }
@article {pmid35685016, year = {2022}, author = {Ma, R and Xia, C and Liu, Y and Wang, Y and Zhang, J and Shen, X and Lu, X and Jiang, M}, title = {Spatiotemporal Change of Net Primary Productivity and Its Response to Climate Change in Temperate Grasslands of China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {899800}, pmid = {35685016}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The temperate grasslands in China play a vital part in regulating regional carbon cycle and climate change. Net primary productivity (NPP) is a crucial index that reflects ecological function of plants and the carbon sequestration capacity of grassland ecosystem. Climate change can affect NPP by changing vegetation growth, but the effects of climate change on the NPP of China's temperate grasslands remain unclear. Based on MODIS data and monthly climate data during 2000-2020, this study explored the spatiotemporal changes in grassland NPP and its response to climate change in temperate grasslands of China. We found that the annual NPP over the entire China's temperate grasslands increased significantly by 4.0 gC/m[2]/year from 2000 to 2020. The annual NPP showed increasing trends for all the different grassland vegetation types, with the smallest increase for temperate desert steppe (2.2 gC/m[2]/year) and the largest increase for temperate meadow (5.4 gC/m[2]/year). The correlation results showed that increased annual precipitation had a positive relationship with the NPP of temperate grasslands. Increased summer and autumn precipitation could increase grassland NPP, particularly for the temperate meadow. With regard to the effects of temperatures, increased temperature, particularly the summer maximum temperature, could decrease annual NPP. However, increased spring minimum temperature could increase the NPP of temperate desert steppe. In addition, this study found, for the first time, an asymmetric relationship between summer nighttime and daytime warming and the NPP of temperate meadow. Specifically, nighttime warming can increase NPP, while daytime warming can reduce NPP in temperate meadow. Our results highlight the importance of including seasonal climate conditions in assessing the vegetation productivity for different grassland types of temperate grasslands and predicting the influences of future climate change on temperate grassland ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid35684297, year = {2022}, author = {Freitas, TR and Santos, JA and Silva, AP and Fraga, H}, title = {Correction: Freitas et al. Influence of Climate Change on Chestnut Trees: A Review. Plants 2021, 10, 1463.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {35684297}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {In the original article [...].}, }
@article {pmid35680858, year = {2022}, author = {Foong, A and Pradhan, P and Frör, O and Kropp, JP}, title = {Adjusting agricultural emissions for trade matters for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {3024}, pmid = {35680858}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {221362/Z/20/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Milk ; Ruminants ; }, abstract = {Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in food systems is becoming more challenging as food is increasingly consumed away from producer regions, highlighting the need to consider emissions embodied in trade in agricultural emissions accounting. To address this, our study explores recent trends in trade-adjusted agricultural emissions of food items at the global, regional, and national levels. We find that emissions are largely dependent on a country's consumption patterns and their agricultural emission intensities relative to their trading partners'. The absolute differences between the production-based and trade-adjusted emissions accounting approaches are especially apparent for major agricultural exporters and importers and where large shares of emission-intensive items such as ruminant meat, milk products and rice are involved. In relative terms, some low-income and emerging and developing economies with consumption of high emission intensity food products show large differences between approaches. Similar trends are also found under various specifications that account for trade and re-exports differently. These findings could serve as an important element towards constructing national emissions reduction targets that consider trading partners, leading to more effective emissions reductions overall.}, }
@article {pmid35680163, year = {2022}, author = {Pandey, BD and Morita, K and Costello, A}, title = {Twin crises in Nepal: covid-19 and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {377}, number = {}, pages = {o1434}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o1434}, pmid = {35680163}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*COVID-19/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Nepal/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid35679922, year = {2022}, author = {Tijjani, SB and Giri, S and Woznicki, SA}, title = {Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on irrigation demand, crop yields, and green water scarcity in the New Jersey Coastal Plain.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {838}, number = {Pt 4}, pages = {156538}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156538}, pmid = {35679922}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; New Jersey ; Soil ; Water ; *Water Insecurity ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Climate change has significant implications for irrigated agriculture and global food security. Understanding how altered precipitation patterns and magnitudes, coupled with rising growing season temperatures, affect irrigation demand and crop production is a prerequisite for formulating effective water resources management strategies. This study evaluated the effects of near-term climate change (centered on 2035) on irrigation demand, green water scarcity, and row crop yields in a major agricultural watershed in southern New Jersey, USA. Downscaled precipitation and temperature from six General Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5 and 8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model. Temperature and precipitation increases resulted in greater surface runoff, lateral flow, groundwater recharge, and total streamflow. Seasonal ET for corn is projected to alter between -3.0 % to 0.5 %, with irrigation demand between -17 % to -1 %, and yield ranges between -4 % to +9 % depending on the GCMs in the RCP-4.5 scenario, with similar patterns projected by RCP-8.5 scenario. For soybean, the simulation also indicates a declining trend of ET and irrigation demand while increasing yield. Increasing yield for both crops is attributed to changes in agronomic management practices combined with genetically improved cultivars and higher soil fertility due to CO2 fertilization. Green water scarcity analysis under future climate change for corn and soybean display a decreased soil moisture stress due to increased water use efficiency resulting from reduced stomatal conductance under elevated CO2 concentration.}, }
@article {pmid35679559, year = {2022}, author = {Harris, OO and Bialous, SA and Muench, U and Chapman, S and Dawson-Rose, C}, title = {Climate Change, Public Health, Health Policy, and Nurses Training.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {112}, number = {S3}, pages = {S321-S327}, pmid = {35679559}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Policy ; Health Promotion ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Sustainable Development ; United States ; }, abstract = {There are few educational programs in the United States that have a primary focus on preparing nurses to engage in all levels of public health, health policy, and climate change. The United Nations sustainability development goals (SDG) and the Future of Nursing 2020-2030: Charting a Path to Achieve Health Equity (2021) report underscored the importance of key stakeholders, including nurses, engaging in advocacy and policy to promote health equity. We discuss the role of nursing at the intersection of public health, policy, climate change, and the SDG. We also discuss the history and merger of the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) School of Nursing public health and health policy specialties, a significant innovation in our effort to promote health equity. We provide a brief overview of the redesigning of our curriculum that meets the needs of today's learners by including content on climate change, data analytics, and racial, social, and environmental justice. Finally, we emphasize the need to train the next cadre of nurses interested in careers in public health and health policy for us to meet the challenges facing our communities. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(S3):S321-S327. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306826).}, }
@article {pmid35679335, year = {2022}, author = {Amro, A and Moskalenko, O and Hamarsheh, O and Frohme, M}, title = {Spatiotemporal analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Palestine and foresight study by projections modelling until 2060 based on climate change prediction.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {e0268264}, pmid = {35679335}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Arabs ; Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; *Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/epidemiology ; Male ; *Psychodidae/parasitology ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne parasitic diseases of public health importance that is prevalent in the West Bank but not in the Gaza Strip. The disease caused by parasitic protozoans from the genus Leishmania and it is transmitted by infected phlebotomine sand flies. The aim of our study is to investigate the eco-epidemiological parameters and spatiotemporal projections of CL in Palestine over a 30-years period from 1990 through 2020 and to explore future projections until 2060.<br><br>This long-term descriptive epidemiological study includes investigation of demographic characteristics of reported patients by the Palestinian Ministry of Health (PMoH). Moreover, we explored spatiotemporal distribution of CL including future projection based on climate change scenarios. The number of CL patients reported during this period was 5855 cases, and the average annual incidence rate (AAIR) was 18.5 cases/105 population. The male to female ratio was 1.25:1. Patients-age ranged from 2 months to 89 years (mean = 22.5, std 18.67, and the median was 18 years). More than 65% of the cases came from three governates in the West Bank; Jenin 29% (1617 cases), Jericho 25% (1403), and Tubas 12% (658) with no cases reported in the Gaza Strip. Seasonal occurrence of CL starts to increase in December and peaked during March and April of the following year. Current distribution of CL indicate that Jericho, Tubas, Jenin and Nablus have the most suitable climatic settings for the sandfly vectors. Future projections until 2060 suggest an increasing incidence from northwest of Jenin down to the southwest of Ramallah, disappearance of the foci in Jericho and Tubas throughout the Jordan Vally, and possible emergence of new foci in Gaza Strip.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The future projection of CL in Palestine until 2060 show a tendency of increasing incidence in the north western parts of the West Bank, disappearance from Jericho and Tubas throughout the Jordan Vally, and emergence of new CL endemic foci in the Gaza Strip. These results should be considered to implement effective control and surveillance systems to counteract spatial expansion of CL vectors.}, }
@article {pmid35675944, year = {2022}, author = {Sherman, JD and Chesebro, BB}, title = {Inhaled anaesthesia and analgesia contribute to climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {377}, number = {}, pages = {o1301}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o1301}, pmid = {35675944}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Analgesia ; *Anesthesia ; Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35673362, year = {2022}, author = {Gargano, D and Bernardo, L and Rovito, S and Passalacqua, NG and Abeli, T}, title = {Do marginal plant populations enhance the fitness of larger core units under ongoing climate change? Empirical insights from a rare carnation.}, journal = {AoB PLANTS}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {plac022}, pmid = {35673362}, issn = {2041-2851}, abstract = {Assisted gene flow (AGF) can restore fitness in small plant populations. Due to climate change, current fitness patterns could vary in the future ecological scenario, as highly performant lineages can undergo maladaptation under the new climatic contexts. Peripheral populations have been argued to represent a potential source of species adaptation against climate change, but experimental evidence is poor. This paper considers the consequences of within- and between-population mating between a large core population and the southernmost population, the rare Dianthus guliae, to evaluate optimal AGF design under current and future conditions. We performed experimental self-pollinations and within- and between-population cross-pollinations to generate seed material and test its adaptive value to aridity. Seed germination, seedling growth and survival were measured under current and expected aridity. Effects of population type, pollination treatment and stress treatment on fitness components were analysed by generalized linear models. Relative measures of inbreeding depression and heterosis were taken under different stress treatments. Self-pollination reduced fitness for all the considered traits compared to within- and between-population cross-pollination. Under current aridity regime, the core population expressed higher fitness, and a larger magnitude of inbreeding depression. This indicated the core unit is close to its fitness optimum and could allow for restoring the fitness of the small peripheral population. Contrarily, under increased aridity, the fitness of outbred core lineages decreased, suggesting the rise of maladaptation. In this scenario, AGF from the small peripheral population enhanced the fitness of the core unit, whereas AGF from the core population promoted a fitness loss in the peripheral population. Hence, the small peripheral population could improve fitness of large core units versus climate change, while the contrary could be not true. Integrating reciprocal breeding programmes and fitness analyses under current and predicted ecological conditions can support optimal AGF design in a long-term perspective.}, }
@article {pmid35672509, year = {2022}, author = {Almeida, RM and Schmitt, R and Grodsky, SM and Flecker, AS and Gomes, CP and Zhao, L and Liu, H and Barros, N and Kelman, R and McIntyre, PB}, title = {Floating solar power could help fight climate change - let's get it right.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {606}, number = {7913}, pages = {246-249}, pmid = {35672509}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Solar Energy/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid35672485, year = {2022}, author = {Khraishah, H and Alahmad, B and Ostergard, RL and AlAshqar, A and Albaghdadi, M and Vellanki, N and Chowdhury, MM and Al-Kindi, SG and Zanobetti, A and Gasparrini, A and Rajagopalan, S}, title = {Climate change and cardiovascular disease: implications for global health.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Cardiology}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {798-812}, pmid = {35672485}, issn = {1759-5010}, support = {MR/R013349/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Global Health ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Public Health ; Dust ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest existential challenge to planetary and human health and is dictated by a shift in the Earth's weather and air conditions owing to anthropogenic activity. Climate change has resulted not only in extreme temperatures, but also in an increase in the frequency of droughts, wildfires, dust storms, coastal flooding, storm surges and hurricanes, as well as multiple compound and cascading events. The interactions between climate change and health outcomes are diverse and complex and include several exposure pathways that might promote the development of non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular disease. A collaborative approach is needed to solve this climate crisis, whereby medical professionals, scientific researchers, public health officials and policymakers should work together to mitigate and limit the consequences of global warming. In this Review, we aim to provide an overview of the consequences of climate change on cardiovascular health, which result from direct exposure pathways, such as shifts in ambient temperature, air pollution, forest fires, desert (dust and sand) storms and extreme weather events. We also describe the populations that are most susceptible to the health effects caused by climate change and propose potential mitigation strategies, with an emphasis on collaboration at the scientific, governmental and policy levels.}, }
@article {pmid35669962, year = {2022}, author = {Benítez-Benítez, C and Sanz-Arnal, M and Urbani, M and Jiménez-Mejías, P and Martín-Bravo, S}, title = {Dramatic impact of future climate change on the genetic diversity and distribution of ecologically relevant Western Mediterranean Carex (Cyperaceae).}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e13464}, pmid = {35669962}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; *Carex Plant/genetics ; *Cyperaceae ; Genetic Variation/genetics ; }, abstract = {Anticipating the evolutionary responses of species to ongoing climate change is essential to propose effective management and conservation measures. The Western Mediterranean Basin constitutes one of the hotspots of biodiversity where the effects of climate change are expected to be more dramatic. Plant species with ecological relevance constitute ideal models to evaluate and predict the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Here we investigate these impacts through the spatio-temporal comparison of genetic diversity/structure (AFLPs), potential distribution under different future scenarios of climate change, and ecological space in two Western Mediterranean sister species of genus Carex. Both species are ecologically key in their riparian habitats, but display contrasting distribution patterns, with one widespread in the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa (C. reuteriana), while the other (C. panormitana) is a restricted, probably endangered, Central Mediterranean endemic. At present, we found a strong genetic structure driven by geography in both species, and lower values of genetic diversity and a narrower ecological space in C. panormitana than in C. reuteriana, while the allelic rarity was higher in the former than in C. reuteriana subspecies. Future projections predict an overall dramatic reduction of suitable areas for both species under all climate change scenarios, which could be almost total for C. panormitana. In addition, gene diversity was inferred to decrease in all taxa, with genetic structure reinforcing in C. reuteriana by the loss of admixture among populations. Our findings stress the need for a reassessment of C. panormitana conservation status under IUCN Red List criteria and the implementation of conservation measures.}, }
@article {pmid35669408, year = {2022}, author = {Jayasinghe, AD and Le Compete Forsyth Stewart, P}, title = {Level of preparedness of the residential building industry in Australia to climate change adaptation: a case of residential building companies in Brisbane, Queensland.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {28}, pmid = {35669408}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {The consequences of climate change are profound for the residential building industry and, unless appropriate adaptation strategies are implemented, will increase exponentially. The consequences of climate change, such as increased repair costs, can be reduced if buildings are designed and built to be adaptive to climate change risks. This research investigates the preparedness of the Australian residential building sector to adapt to such risks, with a view to informing the next review of the National Construction Code (2022), which at present does not include provisions for climate change adaptation. Twelve semi-structured interviews were conducted with construction managers from residential building companies in Brisbane, Queensland to understand their level of preparedness to adapt with climate change risks. Three aspects of preparedness were investigated: participant's awareness of climate change risks, their company's capacity to include climate change information in planning, and actions taken to address climate change risks. Participants were also asked about climate change adaptation policies and what they thought the path towards increased preparedness in the residential construction industry to climate change risks might involve. Qualitative analysis of interview data was undertaken using NVivo software, and illustrative examples and direct quotes from this data are included in the results. The results indicate a low level of preparedness of the residential building industry to adapt with climate risks. Levels of awareness of managing the consequences of climate change risks, analytical capacity, and the actions taken to address climate change were all found to be low. Legislating climate adaptation practices and increasing the adaptation awareness of the residential constructors are some of the recommendations to enhance the preparedness of the residential construction industry in Australia to adapt with climate change risks.}, }
@article {pmid35669112, year = {2022}, author = {Benansio, JS and Funk, SM and Lino, JL and Balli, JJ and Dante, JO and Dendi, D and Fa, JE and Luiselli, L}, title = {Perceptions and attitudes towards climate change in fishing communities of the Sudd Wetlands, South Sudan.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {78}, pmid = {35669112}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The Sudd in South Sudan, formed by the White Nile's Baḥr al-Jabal section, is one of the largest and most important wetlands in the world. Communities in the region almost exclusively depend on fisheries for food and livelihoods. Although threatened by over-exploitation and habitat changes, fish populations are also affected by climate change. Using semi-structured questionnaires, we assessed fisherfolk's opinions of how recent variation in climate affected their livelihoods and the environment. Fisherfolk perceived that climate had changed in the past decade and were negatively impacted by this. Interviewees reported average higher temperatures, a greater frequency of floods and droughts, unpredictable timing of seasons, and erratic rainfall. Destruction of fishing villages/camps, loss and damage of fishing equipment, shifts in the fishing calendar, reduction of fish trade, and fish catch declines as well as psycho-social problems were given as the major consequences of climate change. Causes of climate change and variability were perceived to be linked to uncontrolled harvest of forest resources, anger of God and ancestors, and natural variability in climate. Most respondents expressed a desire to adopt more responsible behavior such as planting trees and establishing community nurseries, being educated on climate change risks, and sustainable fisheries management. Our results show that fisherfolk in the Sudd are troubled by climate change impacts on their livelihoods and on fish populations. In South Sudan, climate change has been reported from hydroclimatological data but concrete impacts on people remain largely unknown and of little concern because of recent wars and the poor economy. Our study provides an example of how fisherfolks' local ecological knowledge (LEK) can be used as an early warning system of the negative impacts on livelihoods and fish populations and support adaptation to the changing climate.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-022-01928-w.}, }
@article {pmid35668551, year = {2022}, author = {Lancaster, LT and Fuller, ZL and Berger, D and Barbour, MA and Jentoft, S and Wellenreuther, M}, title = {Understanding climate change response in the age of genomics.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {6}, pages = {1056-1063}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13711}, pmid = {35668551}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Genomics ; }, }
@article {pmid35668102, year = {2022}, author = {Bai, H and Gambetta, GA and Wang, Y and Kong, J and Long, Q and Fan, P and Duan, W and Liang, Z and Dai, Z}, title = {Historical long-term cultivar×climate suitability data to inform viticultural adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {271}, pmid = {35668102}, issn = {2052-4463}, abstract = {Grape quality is regulated by complex interactions between environments and cultivars. Growing suitable cultivars in a given region is essential for maintaining viticulture sustainability, particularly in the face of climate change. We created a database composed of three different subsets of data. The first subset was created by digitizing and curating the seminal report of Amerine and Winkler (1944), which provided grape harvest dates (GHDs), the quality of musts and wines, and wine tasting notes for 148 cultivars from 1935–1941 across five contrasting climatic regions of California. To put this dataset into a climate change context, we collected GHDs and must sugar content (°Brix) records from 1991 to 2018 for four representative cultivars in one of the five studied regions (Napa). Finally, we integrated meteorological data of the five regions during 1911–2018 and calculated bioclimatic indices important for grape. The resulting database is unique and valuable for assessing the fitness between cultivars across environments in order to mitigate the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35666588, year = {2022}, author = {Danek, ET and Blackburn, D and Topliss, DJ and Sztal-Mazer, S}, title = {Letter to the Editor From Danek et al: "Environmental Pollution, Climate Change, and a Critical Role for the Endocrinologist".}, journal = {The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism}, volume = {107}, number = {9}, pages = {e3964}, doi = {10.1210/clinem/dgac351}, pmid = {35666588}, issn = {1945-7197}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Endocrinologists ; Environmental Pollution/adverse effects ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35665713, year = {2022}, author = {Birnie, E and Biemond, JJ and Wiersinga, WJ}, title = {Drivers of melioidosis endemicity: epidemiological transition, zoonosis, and climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in infectious diseases}, volume = {35}, number = {3}, pages = {196-204}, pmid = {35665713}, issn = {1473-6527}, mesh = {Animals ; *Burkholderia pseudomallei ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Melioidosis/epidemiology/microbiology ; Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; Zoonoses/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Melioidosis, caused by the soil-dwelling bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei, is a tropical infection associated with high morbidity and mortality. This review summarizes current insights into melioidosis' endemicity, focusing on epidemiological transitions, zoonosis, and climate change.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Estimates of the global burden of melioidosis affirm the significance of hot-spots in Australia and Thailand. However, it also highlights the paucity of systematic data from South Asia, The Americas, and Africa. Globally, the growing incidence of diabetes, chronic renal and (alcoholic) liver diseases further increase the susceptibility of individuals to B. pseudomallei infection. Recent outbreaks in nonendemic regions have further exposed the hazard from the trade of animals and products as potential reservoirs for B. pseudomallei. Lastly, global warming will increase precipitation, severe weather events, soil salinity and anthrosol, all associated with the occurrence of B. pseudomallei.<br><br>SUMMARY: Epidemiological transitions, zoonotic hazards, and climate change are all contributing to the emergence of novel melioidosis-endemic areas. The adoption of the One Health approach involving multidisciplinary collaboration is important in unraveling the real incidence of B. pseudomallei, as well as reducing the spread and associated mortality.}, }
@article {pmid35665574, year = {2022}, author = {Bezabih Beyene, B and Li, J and Yuan, J and Dong, Y and Liu, D and Chen, Z and Kim, J and Kang, H and Freeman, C and Ding, W}, title = {Non-native plant invasion can accelerate global climate change by increasing wetland methane and terrestrial nitrous oxide emissions.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {18}, pages = {5453-5468}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16290}, pmid = {35665574}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Introduced Species ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrogen ; *Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Soil ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Approximately 17% of the land worldwide is considered highly vulnerable to non-native plant invasion, which can dramatically alter nutrient cycles and influence greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in terrestrial and wetland ecosystems. However, a systematic investigation of the impact of non-native plant invasion on GHG dynamics at a global scale has not yet been conducted, making it impossible to predict the exact biological feedback of non-native plant invasion to global climate change. Here, we compiled 273 paired observational cases from 94 peer-reviewed articles to evaluate the effects of plant invasion on GHG emissions and to identify the associated key drivers. Non-native plant invasion significantly increased methane (CH4) emissions from 129 kg CH4 ha[-1] year[-1] in natural wetlands to 217 kg CH4 ha[-1] year[-1] in invaded wetlands. Plant invasion showed a significant tendency to increase CH4 uptakes from 2.95 to 3.64 kg CH4 ha[-1] year[-1] in terrestrial ecosystems. Invasive plant species also significantly increased nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions in grasslands from an average of 0.76 kg N2 O ha[-1] year[-1] in native sites to 1.35 kg N2 O ha[-1] year[-1] but did not affect N2 O emissions in forests or wetlands. Soil organic carbon, mean annual air temperature (MAT), and nitrogenous deposition (N_DEP) were the key factors responsible for the changes in wetland CH4 emissions due to plant invasion. The responses of terrestrial CH4 uptake rates to plant invasion were mainly driven by MAT, soil NH4 [+] , and soil moisture. Soil NO3 [-] , mean annual precipitation, and N_DEP affected terrestrial N2 O emissions in response to plant invasion. Our meta-analysis not only sheds light on the stimulatory effects of plant invasion on GHG emissions from wetland and terrestrial ecosystems but also improves our current understanding of the mechanisms underlying the responses of GHG emissions to plant invasion.}, }
@article {pmid35660833, year = {2022}, author = {Lu, LC and Chiu, SY and Chiu, YH and Chang, TH}, title = {Sustainability efficiency of climate change and global disasters based on greenhouse gas emissions from the parallel production sectors - A modified dynamic parallel three-stage network DEA model.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {317}, number = {}, pages = {115401}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115401}, pmid = {35660833}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Forests ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Methane/analysis ; }, abstract = {This study employed dynamic three-stage network data envelopment analysis (DEA), considering parallel production in the agricultural and industrial sectors, to assess the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate change and natural disaster stages. The results revealed the following: (1) The dynamic overall efficiencies of more countries are decreasing than are increasing. The seven countries with the poorest overall efficiency ranking (Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Pakistan, and India) are mostly located in Southeast Asia. (2) The number of countries that maintained low efficiency over the long term is greater than those that retained high efficiency over the long term. Myanmar, Mexico, India, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam maintained efficiency scores below 0.5, whereas South Korea, Japan, China, and New Zealand maintained efficiency scores above 0.8. (3) More than one-third of countries exhibited declines in efficiency over time, and half were European countries. Less than one-third of countries maintained their efficiency, and less than one-third of countries gradually improved. (4) Approximately half of the countries' efficiency scores were lower than the global average. The efficiency scores of the industrial sector exhibited a greater room for improvement on the input factors than did those of the agricultural sector. (5) Total factor energy efficiency analysis revealed that methane emissions and CO2 emissions have a similar level but large room for improvement across countries. Improving input factors in the production stage can ultimately mitigate inefficiencies in the climate change and natural disaster stages. There are still other important factors related to climate change, such as sea surface temperature, forest areas, or air pollution indicators, that could be considered in future research. The occurrence of global disasters could also be discussed in groups according to the region where the countries are located in the future.}, }
@article {pmid35660616, year = {2022}, author = {Des, M and Gómez-Gesteira, JL and deCastro, M and Iglesias, D and Sousa, MC and ElSerafy, G and Gómez-Gesteira, M}, title = {Historical and future naturalization of Magallana gigas in the Galician coast in a context of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {838}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {156437}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156437}, pmid = {35660616}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Citizenship ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Ostreidae ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Magallana gigas is a naturalized species on the north coast of Galicia (Rías Altas, Northwest Iberian Peninsula), where it was unintentionally introduced. In recent decades, a greater abundance of M. gigas has been observed on the Galician coast, expanding towards the south, reaching the Artabro Gulf (Rías Centrales, NW Galician coast), probably due to ocean warming. Although this species has been cultivated in the Rías Baixas since the early 1990s and spawning has been reported, recruitment was never observed, which is likely due to the cold water upwelled during the spawning months. The future rise in seawater temperature may favor the naturalization of the non-indigenous species M. gigas southwards, in the Rías Baixas. Thermally, the Ría de Arousa seems to be the most favorable estuary for the future settlement of M. gigas, which may occur in the next decades. The extent of thermally favorable zones within estuaries is projected to increase rapidly by mid-century, and reaching 100 % of the estuarine area by the end of the century. As has already happened in other areas of the world, the expansion and naturalization of the Pacific oyster on the Galician coast will likely affect the native communities and economic activities, making it necessary to implement monitoring and management strategies to mitigate its effect.}, }
@article {pmid35660578, year = {2022}, author = {Filho, WL and Setti, AFF and Azeiteiro, UM and Lokupitiya, E and Donkor, FK and Etim, NN and Matandirotya, N and Olooto, FM and Sharifi, A and Nagy, GJ and Djekic, I}, title = {An overview of the interactions between food production and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {838}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {156438}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156438}, pmid = {35660578}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Food ; Food Supply ; Refuse Disposal ; }, abstract = {This paper provides an overview of how food production influences climate change and also illustrates the impact of climate change on food production. To perform such an overview, the (inter)link between different parts of the food supply chain continuum (agriculture production, livestock farming, food processing, food transport and storing, retail food, and disposal of food waste) and climate change has been investigated through a bibliometric analysis. Besides UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13, associated with climate change, other SDGs that are associated with this overview are goals #1, #2, #3, #6, #7, #12, and #15. Based on the evidence gathered, the paper provides some recommendations that may assist in efforts to reduce the climate-related impacts of food production.}, }
@article {pmid35660438, year = {2022}, author = {Li, Y and Wang, H and Deng, Y and Liang, D and Li, Y and Shen, Z}, title = {How climate change and land-use evolution relates to the non-point source pollution in a typical watershed of China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {839}, number = {}, pages = {156375}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156375}, pmid = {35660438}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Nitrogen/analysis ; *Non-Point Source Pollution ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {The water quality of Le 'an River Watershed (LRW) is crucial to the water environmental safety of Poyang Lake, especially the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus. The effect of climate and land use change on watershed water quality has always been under the attention of local managers. More importantly, the lack of detailed studies on climate and land use impact on river water quality has prevented sustainable water security management in the LRW. Therefore, this study aimed to quantify the weight of climate and land use on nutrient loss in the LRW, respectively. We divided the historical period (1990-2020) into six scenarios and a baseline scenario. TN and TP losses in the watershed were simulated using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and the weight of climate and land use were quantified in overall, by period, and by region. The results showed that the weight of climate was greatly higher than land use with values around 90%. However, the weight of land use had a positive cumulative effect in a certain period, and its influence could not be neglected. The climate in all scenarios led to a reduction in nutrient loss, while land use was found to slightly increase the nutrient loss yield. In addition to, unique regional topographic features, urbanization rates, and climatic conditions could cause spatial heterogeneity in the climatic and land use weights.}, }
@article {pmid35657791, year = {2022}, author = {Toupin, R and Millerand, F and Larivière, V}, title = {Who tweets climate change papers? investigating publics of research through users' descriptions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {e0268999}, pmid = {35657791}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; Humans ; Occupations ; *Social Media ; }, abstract = {As social issues like climate change become increasingly salient, digital traces left by scholarly documents can be used to assess their reach outside of academia. Our research examine who shared climate change research papers on Twitter by looking at the expressions used in profile descriptions. We categorized users in eight categories (academia, communication, political, professional, personal, organization, bots and publishers) associated to specific expressions. Results indicate how diverse publics may be represented in the communication of scholarly documents on Twitter. Supplementing our word detection analysis with qualitative assessments of the results, we highlight how the presence of unique or multiple categorizations in textual Twitter descriptions provides evidence of the publics of research in specific contexts. Our results show a more substantial communication by academics and organizations for papers published in 2016, whereas the general public comparatively participated more in 2015. Overall, there is significant participation of publics outside of academia in the communication of climate change research articles on Twitter, although the extent to which these publics participate varies between individual papers. This means that papers circulate in specific communities which need to be assessed to understand the reach of research on social media. Furthermore, the flexibility of our method provide means for research assessment that consider the contextuality and plurality of publics involved on Twitter.}, }
@article {pmid35657425, year = {2023}, author = {Meena, M and Yadav, G and Sonigra, P and Nagda, A and Mehta, T and Swapnil, P and Harish,  and Marwal, A and Kumar, S}, title = {Multifarious Responses of Forest Soil Microbial Community Toward Climate Change.}, journal = {Microbial ecology}, volume = {86}, number = {1}, pages = {49-74}, pmid = {35657425}, issn = {1432-184X}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Soil/chemistry ; Forests ; *Microbiota ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Soil Microbiology ; Carbon ; }, abstract = {Forest soils are a pressing subject of worldwide research owing to the several roles of forests such as carbon sinks. Currently, the living soil ecosystem has become dreadful as a consequence of several anthropogenic activities including climate change. Climate change continues to transform the living soil ecosystem as well as the soil microbiome of planet Earth. The majority of studies have aimed to decipher the role of forest soil bacteria and fungi to understand and predict the impact of climate change on soil microbiome community structure and their ecosystem in the environment. In forest soils, microorganisms live in diverse habitats with specific behavior, comprising bulk soil, rhizosphere, litter, and deadwood habitats, where their communities are influenced by biotic interactions and nutrient accessibility. Soil microbiome also drives multiple crucial steps in the nutrient biogeochemical cycles (carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, and sulfur cycles). Soil microbes help in the nitrogen cycle through nitrogen fixation during the nitrogen cycle and maintain the concentration of nitrogen in the atmosphere. Soil microorganisms in forest soils respond to various effects of climate change, for instance, global warming, elevated level of CO2, drought, anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, increased precipitation, and flood. As the major burning issue of the globe, researchers are facing the major challenges to study soil microbiome. This review sheds light on the current scenario of knowledge about the effect of climate change on living soil ecosystems in various climate-sensitive soil ecosystems and the consequences for vegetation-soil-climate feedbacks.}, }
@article {pmid35656201, year = {2022}, author = {Volkov, V}, title = {System analysis of the fast global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Can we avoid future pandemics under global climate change?.}, journal = {Communicative &amp; integrative biology}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {150-157}, pmid = {35656201}, issn = {1942-0889}, abstract = {The recent fast global spread of COVID-19 caused by a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) questions why and how the disease managed to be so effective against existing health protection measures. These measures, developed by many countries over centuries and strengthened over the last decades, proved to be ineffective against COVID-19. The sharp increase in human longevity and current transport systems in economically developing countries with the background of persisting cultural frameworks and stable local pools of high bacterial and viral mutations generated the wide gap between the established health protection systems and the new emerging diseases. SARS-CoV-2 targets human populations over the world with long incubation periods, often without symptoms, and serious outcomes. Hence, novel strategies are necessary to meet the demands of developing economic and social environments. Moreover, the ongoing climate change adds extra challenges while altering the existing system of interactions in biological populations and in human society. Climate change may lead to new sources of viral and microbial mutations, new ways of zoonotic disease transmission and to huge social and economic transformations in many countries. The present short Opinion applies a system approach linking biomedical, climate change, social and economic aspects and, accordingly, discusses the measures and more efficient means to avoid future pandemics.}, }
@article {pmid35655079, year = {2022}, author = {Rajesh, M and Rehana, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on river water temperature and dissolved oxygen: Indian riverine thermal regimes.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {9222}, pmid = {35655079}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Oxygen ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on the oxygen saturation content of the world's surface waters is a significant topic for future water quality in a warming environment. While increasing river water temperatures (RWTs) with climate change signals have been the subject of several recent research, how climate change affects Dissolved Oxygen (DO) saturation levels have not been intensively studied. This study examined the direct effect of rising RWTs on saturated DO concentrations. For this, a hybrid deep learning model using Long Short-Term Memory integrated with k-nearest neighbor bootstrap resampling algorithm is developed for RWT prediction addressing sparse spatiotemporal RWT data for seven major polluted river catchments of India at a monthly scale. The summer RWT increase for Tunga-Bhadra, Sabarmati, Musi, Ganga, and Narmada basins are predicted as 3.1, 3.8, 5.8, 7.3, 7.8 °C, respectively, for 2071-2100 with ensemble of NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections of air temperature with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. The RWT increases up to7 °C for summer, reaching close to 35 °C, and decreases DO saturation capacity by 2-12% for 2071-2100. Overall, for every 1 °C RWT increase, there will be about 2.3% decrease in DO saturation level concentrations over Indian catchments under climate signals.}, }
@article {pmid35654803, year = {2022}, author = {Saedi, J and Sharifi, MR and Saremi, A and Babazadeh, H}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change and human activity on streamflow in a semiarid basin using precipitation and baseflow analysis.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {9228}, pmid = {35654803}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Hydrology ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Assessment of streamflow variations under the influence of climate change and human activity is crucial for sustainable water resource management, especially in semiarid areas. In this study, we first used the Hydrograph Separation Program to separate and analyze the base flow index (BFI) that was impacted directly by human activity and precipitation as an important climate factor from 1967 to 2016 in the Dez River Basin. Second, the Mann-Kendall trend test was used to identify trends and change points. Then, the elasticity coefficient method was applied to calculate the impacts of natural factors and anthropogenic activities. The results of the separation methods showed that the sliding interval method produced a better performance. Furthermore; the analyzed trend test at the annual scale showed a significant decreasing trend for runoff as well as increasing trends for the baseflow index in the four of five sub-basins of the Dez River at confidence levels of 95% and 99%, while the average precipitation in these sub-basins was not significant. Additionally, at the seasonal scale in these sub-basins, the average precipitation in winter showed a significant downward trend, while runoff showed a decreasing trend and the BFI index showed increasing trends in winter, spring and summer. The abrupt change point was determined after the change in the BFI index; the runoff was reduced. The maximum change occurred in the sub-basin tireh which after change point from 1977 to 1993,runoff reduced - 1.49% comparison with the base period(from 1967 to 1976) also elasticity estimation was - 0.46,but after change point in Baseflow index from 1994 to 2016 runoff reduced - 55.02% and elasticity estimation was - 0.65. The baseflow index trend and elasticity estimation also indicated that intensive human activities had more significant effects on the Dez Basin's hydrological processes and streamflow variation.}, }
@article {pmid35653230, year = {2022}, author = {Rai, S and Hage, D and Littlefield, J and Yanai, G and Skone, TJ}, title = {Comparative Life Cycle Evaluation of the Global Warming Potential (GWP) Impacts of Renewable Natural Gas Production Pathways.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {56}, number = {12}, pages = {8581-8589}, pmid = {35653230}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Life Cycle Stages ; *Natural Gas ; Solid Waste ; }, abstract = {Renewable natural gas (RNG) sources are being considered in future energy strategy discussions as potential replacements for fossil natural gas (FNG). While today's supply of RNG resources is insufficient to meet U.S. demands, there is significant interest in its viability to supplement and decarbonize the natural gas supply. However, the studies compare the life cycle global warming potential (GWP) of various RNG production pathways are lacking and focus mostly on a singular pathway. This effort is an attempt to close this gap and provide a comparison between the life cycle GWP of three major RNG pathways and the FNG pathway. The three RNG pathways evaluated are anaerobic digestion (AD), thermal gasification (TG), and power-to-gas (P2G) using various feedstocks. The functional unit is 1 MJ of compressed RNG ready for injection into the natural gas transmission network. The results show that RNG production is not always carbon neutral or negative. Depending on the pathway, the GWP impact of RNG production can range from -229 to 27 g CO2e/MJ compressed RNG, with AD of animal manure and AD of municipal solid waste being the least and the most impactful pathways, respectively, compared to the 10.1 g CO2e/MJ impact for compressed FNG.}, }
@article {pmid35653024, year = {2022}, author = {Salimi, S and Scholz, M}, title = {Importance of water level management for peatland outflow water quality in the face of climate change and drought.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {50}, pages = {75455-75470}, pmid = {35653024}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Ammonium Compounds ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Oxygen ; Phosphorus ; Soil ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {The impact of different climate scenarios, drought, and water level management on the outflow water quality of peatlands has been investigated. A mesocosm experiment has been conducted within climate control chambers to simulate current (2016-2019 real-time) and future representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). To assess the efficiency of a management strategy for improving peatland water quality, water level adjustment was applied to half of the system at the same time for each climate scenario. Furthermore, the mesocosm experienced the 2018 European drought during the simulation years, and the corresponding impact was analyzed. The results of this study revealed a substantial and favorable impact of water level management on water quality of peatlands under different climate scenarios. The effect of water level management was the largest for ammonium (NH4-N) and 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), and the smallest for total phosphorus (TP). Drought had a strong impact on chemical variables, increasing their concentration and deteriorating the water quality of peatland outflow. However, water level management can stabilize the nutrient levels in peatland outflows, particularly during drought and under warmer climate scenarios, thus mitigating the adverse effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35651748, year = {2022}, author = {Jenkins, TL and Stevens, JR}, title = {Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e13509}, pmid = {35651748}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Anthozoa ; Temperature ; Norway ; }, abstract = {Species distribution models have become a valuable tool to predict the distribution of species across geographic space and time. In this study, maximum entropy models were constructed for two temperate shallow-water octocoral species, the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) and dead man's fingers (Alcyonium digitatum), to investigate and compare habitat suitability. The study area covered the north-east Atlantic from the Bay of Biscay to the British Isles and southern Norway; this area includes both the northern range of E. verrucosa and the middle-northern range of A. digitatum. The optimal models for each species showed that, overall, slope, temperature at the seafloor and wave orbital velocity were important predictors of distribution in both species. Predictions of habitat suitability showed areas of present-day (1951-2000) suitable habitat where colonies have not yet been observed, particularly for E. verrucosa, where areas beyond its known northern range limit were identified. Moreover, analysis with future layers (2081-2100) of temperature and oxygen concentration predicted a sizable increase in habitat suitability for E. verrucosa beyond these current range limits under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. This suggests that projected climate change may induce a potential range expansion northward for E. verrucosa, although successful colonisation would also be conditional on other factors such as dispersal and interspecific competition. For A. digitatum, this scenario of projected climate change may result in more suitable habitat in higher latitudes, but, as with E. verrucosa, there is a degree of uncertainty in the model predictions. Importantly, the results from this study highlight present-day areas of high habitat suitability which, if combined with knowledge on population density, could be used to identify priority areas to enhance protection and ensure the long-term survival of these octocoral species in the region.}, }
@article {pmid35650670, year = {2022}, author = {Garrett, KA and Bebber, DP and Etherton, BA and Gold, KM and Plex Sulá, AI and Selvaraj, MG}, title = {Climate Change Effects on Pathogen Emergence: Artificial Intelligence to Translate Big Data for Mitigation.}, journal = {Annual review of phytopathology}, volume = {60}, number = {}, pages = {357-378}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-phyto-021021-042636}, pmid = {35650670}, issn = {1545-2107}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Artificial Intelligence ; *Big Data ; Climate Change ; Machine Learning ; }, abstract = {Plant pathology has developed a wide range of concepts and tools for improving plant disease management, including models for understanding and responding to new risks from climate change. Most of these tools can be improved using new advances in artificial intelligence (AI), such as machine learning to integrate massive data sets in predictive models. There is the potential to develop automated analyses of risk that alert decision-makers, from farm managers to national plant protection organizations, to the likely need for action and provide decision support for targeting responses. We review machine-learning applications in plant pathology and synthesize ideas for the next steps to make the most of these tools in digital agriculture. Global projects, such as the proposed global surveillance system for plant disease, will be strengthened by the integration of the wide range of new data, including data from tools like remote sensors, that are used to evaluate the risk ofplant disease. There is exciting potential for the use of AI to strengthen global capacity building as well, from image analysis for disease diagnostics and associated management recommendations on farmers' phones to future training methodologies for plant pathologists that are customized in real-time for management needs in response to the current risks. International cooperation in integrating data and models will help develop the most effective responses to new challenges from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35649980, year = {2022}, author = {Gupta, S and Mastrantonas, N and Masoller, C and Kurths, J}, title = {Perspectives on the importance of complex systems in understanding our climate and climate change-The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021.}, journal = {Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)}, volume = {32}, number = {5}, pages = {052102}, doi = {10.1063/5.0090222}, pmid = {35649980}, issn = {1089-7682}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Nobel Prize ; Physics ; }, abstract = {The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021 was awarded to Syukuro Manabe, Klaus Hasselmann, and Giorgio Parisi for their "groundbreaking contributions to our understanding of complex systems," including major advances in the understanding of our climate and climate change. In this Perspective article, we review their key contributions and discuss their relevance in relation to the present understanding of our climate. We conclude by outlining some promising research directions and open questions in climate science.}, }
@article {pmid35649050, year = {2022}, author = {Jurberg, J}, title = {Chagas disease (American trypanosomiasis) in the context of the 2030 agenda. Insights into global warming and vector control.}, journal = {Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz}, volume = {117}, number = {}, pages = {e210479chgsb}, pmid = {35649050}, issn = {1678-8060}, mesh = {*Chagas Disease/prevention &amp; control ; Global Warming ; Humans ; *Trypanosoma cruzi ; }, }
@article {pmid35649048, year = {2022}, author = {Souza, RCM and Gorla, DE and Chame, M and Jaramillo, N and Monroy, C and Diotaiuti, L}, title = {Chagas disease in the context of the 2030 agenda: global warming and vectors.}, journal = {Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz}, volume = {117}, number = {}, pages = {e200479}, pmid = {35649048}, issn = {1678-8060}, mesh = {Animals ; *Chagas Disease ; Cities ; Disease Vectors ; Environment ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is a plan of action for people, planet and prosperity. Thousands of years and centuries of colonisation have passed the precarious housing conditions, food insecurity, lack of sanitation, the limitation of surveillance, health care programs and climate change. Chagas disease continues to be a public health problem. The control programs have been successful in many countries in reducing transmission by T. cruzi; but the results have been variable. WHO makes recommendations for prevention and control with the aim of eliminating Chagas disease as a public health problem. Climate change, deforestation, migration, urbanisation, sylvatic vectors and oral transmission require integrating the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development, as well as the links within and between objectives and sectors. While the environment scenarios change around the world, native vector species pose a significant public health threat. The man-made atmosphere change is related to the increase of triatomines' dispersal range, or an increase of the mobility of the vectors from their sylvatic environment to man-made constructions, or humans getting into sylvatic scenarios, leading to an increase of Chagas disease infection. Innovations with the communities and collaborations among municipalities, International cooperation agencies, local governmental agencies, academic partners, developmental agencies, or environmental institutions may present promising solutions, but sustained partnerships, long-term commitment, and strong regional leadership are required. A new world has just opened up for the renewal of surveillance practices, but the lessons learned in the past should be the basis for solutions in the future.}, }
@article {pmid35648687, year = {2022}, author = {Coldrey, KM and Turpie, JK and Midgley, G and Scheiter, S and Hannah, L and Roehrdanz, PR and Foden, WB}, title = {Assessing protected area vulnerability to climate change in a case study of South African national parks.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {36}, number = {5}, pages = {e13941}, pmid = {35648687}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Parks, Recreational ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {Climate change is challenging the ability of protected areas (PAs) to meet their objectives. To improve PA planning, we developed a framework for assessing PA vulnerability to climate change based on consideration of potential climate change impacts on species and their habitats and resource use. Furthermore, the capacity of PAs to adapt to these climate threats was determined through assessment of PA management effectiveness, adjacent land use, and financial resilience. Users reach a PA-specific vulnerability score and rank based on scoring of these categories. We applied the framework to South Africa's 19 national parks. Because the 19 parks are managed as a national network, we explored how resources might be best allocated to address climate change. Each park's importance to the network's biodiversity conservation and revenue generation was estimated and used to weight overall vulnerability scores and ranks. Park vulnerability profiles showed distinct combinations of potential impacts of climate change and adaptive capacities; the former had a greater influence on vulnerability. Mapungubwe National Park emerged as the most vulnerable to climate change, despite its relatively high adaptive capacity, largely owing to large projected changes in species and resource use. Table Mountain National Park scored the lowest in overall vulnerability. Climate change vulnerability rankings differed markedly once importance weightings were applied; Kruger National Park was the most vulnerable under both importance scenarios. Climate change vulnerability assessment is fundamental to effective adaptation planning. Our PA assessment tool is the only tool that quantifies PA vulnerability to climate change in a comparative index. It may be used in data-rich and data-poor contexts to prioritize resource allocation across PA networks and can be applied from local to global scales.}, }
@article {pmid35648449, year = {2022}, author = {Suran, M}, title = {UN Reports New Insights on Link Between Climate Change and Human Health.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {327}, number = {23}, pages = {2276-2277}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2022.9240}, pmid = {35648449}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid35645848, year = {2022}, author = {Larionow, P and Sołtys, M and Izdebski, P and Mudło-Głagolska, K and Golonka, J and Demski, M and Rosińska, M}, title = {Climate Change Anxiety Assessment: The Psychometric Properties of the Polish Version of the Climate Anxiety Scale.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {870392}, pmid = {35645848}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {The Climate Anxiety Scale (CAS) is a 13-item questionnaire for assessing climate anxiety (CA) as a psychological response to climate change. The CAS consists of two subscales, namely, cognitive impairment and functional impairment. This study aimed to validate the Polish version of the CAS. The sample included 603 respondents (344 females, 247 males, and 12 non-binary), aged 18-70 years (M = 25.32, SD = 9.59). Based on the exploratory factor analysis results, we proposed a 3-factor solution (i.e., intrusive symptoms, reflections on CA, and functional impairment), which seems to be theoretically more consistent with the content of the CAS statements. The confirmatory factor analysis showed that the original 2-factor solution and the 3-factor one had a satisfactory and a good fit to the data, respectively, as well as both were invariant across different gender, age, and educational level categories. Despite the fact that the 3-factor solution had the best-fit indices, we recommended to examine the CAS structure in different samples and use the overall CAS score in cross-cultural research. Cognitive and functional impairment subscales were positively correlated with personal experience of climate change, behavioral engagement, environmental identity, and environmental motives, but they were negatively correlated with climate change denial and sense of safety. The CAS subscales were correlated with depressive symptoms, but contrary to expectations, they were not associated with anxiety symptoms and any cognitive coping strategies. The Polish version of the CAS has satisfactory psychometric properties. Overall, we reported low CA levels in the Polish sample. Women and younger people experienced higher CA.}, }
@article {pmid35644404, year = {2022}, author = {Hu, Y and Cheng, J and Liu, S and Tan, J and Yan, C and Yu, G and Yin, Y and Tong, S}, title = {Evaluation of climate change adaptation measures for childhood asthma: A systematic review of epidemiological evidence.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {839}, number = {}, pages = {156291}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156291}, pmid = {35644404}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Asthma/epidemiology ; Child ; Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; Ventilation ; }, abstract = {Global climate change (GCC) is widely accepted as the biggest threat to human health of the 21st century. Children are particularly vulnerable to GCC due to developing organ systems, psychological immaturity, nature of daily activities, and higher level of per-body-unit exposure. There is a rising trend in the disease burden of childhood asthma and allergies in many parts of the world. The associations of CC, air pollution and other environmental exposures with childhood asthma are attracting more research attention, but relatively few studies have focused on CC adaptation measures and childhood asthma. This study aimed to bridge this knowledge gap and conducted the first systematic review on CC adaptation measures and childhood asthma. We searched electronic databases including PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science using a set of MeSH terms and related synonyms, and identified 20 eligible studies included for review. We found that there were a number of adaptation measures proposed for childhood asthma in response to GCC, including vulnerability assessment, improving ventilation and heating, enhancing community education, and developing forecast models and early warning systems. Several randomized controlled trials show that improving ventilation and installing heating in the homes appear to be an effective way to relieve childhood asthma symptoms, especially in winter. However, the effectiveness of most adaptation measures, except for improving ventilation and heating, have not been explored and quantified. Given more extreme weather events (e.g., cold spells and heatwaves) may occur as climate change progresses, this finding may have important implications. Evidently, further research is urgently warranted to evaluate the impacts of CC adaptation measures on childhood asthma. These adaptation measures, if proven to be effective, should be integrated in childhood asthma control and prevention programs as GCC continues.}, }
@article {pmid35644391, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, L and Wu, P and Niu, M and Zheng, Y and Wang, J and Dong, G and Zhang, Z and Xie, Z and Du, M and Jiang, H and Liu, H and Cao, L and Pang, L and Lv, C and Lei, Y and Cai, B and Zhu, Y}, title = {A systematic assessment of city-level climate change mitigation and air quality improvement in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {839}, number = {}, pages = {156274}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156274}, pmid = {35644391}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis/prevention &amp; control ; Beijing ; Carbon Dioxide ; China ; Cities ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Quality Improvement ; }, abstract = {China is facing dual challenges of air pollution and climate change. By using city-level data, we comprehensively assessed air quality and CO2 emission changes from 2015 to 2019 for 335 Chinese cities. We selected important regions for air pollution control and categorized all cities into different classes according to their development levels. Our novel approach revealed new insights on different patterns of changes of PM2.5, O3, and CO2 by region and city class. We found that PM2.5 concentrations decreased remarkably due to mandatory city-level reduction targets, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (-27%) region. Nonetheless, O3 concentrations and CO2 emissions increased in 91% and 69% of Chinese cities, respectively. Observed CO2 emission reductions in more developed cities were mainly due to prominent energy intensity reduction and energy structure improvement. Our study indicates a lack of synergy in air pollution control and CO2 mitigation under current policies in China. To address both challenges holistically, we suggest setting mandatory city-level CO2 emission reduction targets and reinforcing clean energy and energy efficiency measures.}, }
@article {pmid35644239, year = {2022}, author = {Gotore, O and Osamu, N and Rameshprabu, R and Arthi, M and Unpaprom, Y and Itayama, T}, title = {Iodine adsorption isotherms on Matamba fruit shell stemmed biochar for wastewater re-use strategy in rural areas owing to climate change.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {303}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {135126}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2022.135126}, pmid = {35644239}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Adsorption ; Bayes Theorem ; Charcoal/chemistry ; Climate Change ; Fruit ; *Iodine ; Kinetics ; Spectroscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared ; Wastewater ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Remote communities in developing countries are facing ever-increasing water scarcities, due to cumulative demand induced by the climate change and global warming impacts. For the socio-economic and health well-being of the local communities, sufficient, efficient, and affordable water supply is fundamental from local-based adsorbents. Matamba Fruit shell was obtained and pyrolyzed to obtain well-transformed biochar, which exhibited enough capacity to remove Iodine from aqueous solution. The maximum capacity of adsorption of the Matamba Fruit shell was 2.122 mmol L[-1] and 2.12 mmol L[-1] from conventional and Bayesian statistics correspondingly. The difference was insignificant. The surface morphology was evaluated by the Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (FESEM-EDX) which revealed porous structures with irregular openings enough to purge wastewater pollutants. The material surface area was 267.0 m[2] g[-1], as estimated by both approaches, making the Matamba Fruit shell an emerging potential candidate for environmental pollution control and use in bioremediation practices. The Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) revealed that surface functional groups of Matamba Fruit shell biochar have enough peak variations in intensity and position due to vibration variations of the surface. The Fruit shell has different functional groups including the hydroxyl (-OH) and the carbonyl groups (CO), CC stretches of aromatic rings, and the carboxylate (C-O-O-) groups. The biochar understudy unveiled its capability for wastewater-treatment reuse in local and urban communities of developing countries to safeguard their health and access to water-supply as the climate change reverberations are affecting the developing countries more pronounced than before.}, }
@article {pmid35642919, year = {2022}, author = {Blázquez, S and Espinosa, S and Antiñolo, M and Albaladejo, J and Jiménez, E}, title = {Kinetics of CF3CH2OCH3 (HFE-263fb2), CHF2CF2CH2OCH3 (HFE-374pcf), and CF3CF2CH2OCH3 (HFE-365mcf3) with OH radicals, IR absorption cross sections, and global warming potentials.}, journal = {Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP}, volume = {24}, number = {23}, pages = {14354-14364}, doi = {10.1039/d2cp00160h}, pmid = {35642919}, issn = {1463-9084}, abstract = {Hydrofluoroethers (HFEs), such as CF3CH2OCH3 (HFE-263fb2), CHF2CF2CH2OCH3 (HFE-374pcf), and CF3CF2CH2OCH3 (HFE-365mcf3), have been proposed in the last few decades as the third-generation replacements for perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) because of their zero stratospheric ozone depletion potentials and relatively low global warming potentials (GWPs). These GWPs depend on the radiative efficiency (RE) and the atmospheric lifetime (τOH) of HFEs due to the reaction with hydroxyl (OH) radicals. The temperature and pressure dependencies of the OH-rate coefficient (kOH(T)) for HFE-263fb2, HFE-374pcf, and HFE-365mcf3 are not known. Therefore, in this paper, we present the first study on the temperature (263-353 K) and pressure (50-500 torr of helium) dependence of kOH(T) for the titled HFEs. No pressure dependence of kOH(T) was observed in the investigated range. From kOH(298 K), estimated τOH are 17 days (for HFE-263fb2), 12 days (for HFE-374pcf), and 13 days (for HFE-365mcf3). The observed T-dependencies of kOH(T) (in cm[3] molecule[-1] s[-1]) are well described by (3.88 ± 0.89) × 10[-12] exp[-(508 ± 69)/T] for HFE-263fb2, (2.81 ± 0.33) × 10[-12] exp[-(312 ± 35)/T] for HFE-374pcf, and (2.60 ± 0.31) × 10[-12] exp[-(319 ± 35)/T] for HFE-365mcf3. A correlation between log kOH(298 K) and the activation energy (Ea) of the process is presented, allowing the prediction of Ea for OH-reactions with other HFEs, exclusively investigated at room temperature. In addition to the kinetic measurements, the infrared absorption cross sections of HFE-263fb2, HFE-374pcf, and HFE-365mcf3 were determined between 520 and 3100 cm[-1]. Lifetime corrected REs and GWPs relative to CO2 at 100 years' time horizon were reexamined. The impact of the investigated HFEs on the radiative forcing of climate change would be negligible.}, }
@article {pmid35642454, year = {2022}, author = {De Marco, A and Sicard, P and Feng, Z and Agathokleous, E and Alonso, R and Araminiene, V and Augustatis, A and Badea, O and Beasley, JC and Branquinho, C and Bruckman, VJ and Collalti, A and David-Schwartz, R and Domingos, M and Du, E and Garcia Gomez, H and Hashimoto, S and Hoshika, Y and Jakovljevic, T and McNulty, S and Oksanen, E and Omidi Khaniabadi, Y and Prescher, AK and Saitanis, CJ and Sase, H and Schmitz, A and Voigt, G and Watanabe, M and Wood, MD and Kozlov, MV and Paoletti, E}, title = {Strategic roadmap to assess forest vulnerability under air pollution and climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {17}, pages = {5062-5085}, pmid = {35642454}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Although it is an integral part of global change, most of the research addressing the effects of climate change on forests have overlooked the role of environmental pollution. Similarly, most studies investigating the effects of air pollutants on forests have generally neglected the impacts of climate change. We review the current knowledge on combined air pollution and climate change effects on global forest ecosystems and identify several key research priorities as a roadmap for the future. Specifically, we recommend (1) the establishment of much denser array of monitoring sites, particularly in the South Hemisphere; (2) further integration of ground and satellite monitoring; (3) generation of flux-based standards and critical levels taking into account the sensitivity of dominant forest tree species; (4) long-term monitoring of N, S, P cycles and base cations deposition together at global scale; (5) intensification of experimental studies, addressing the combined effects of different abiotic factors on forests by assuring a better representation of taxonomic and functional diversity across the ~73,000 tree species on Earth; (6) more experimental focus on phenomics and genomics; (7) improved knowledge on key processes regulating the dynamics of radionuclides in forest systems; and (8) development of models integrating air pollution and climate change data from long-term monitoring programs.}, }
@article {pmid35641833, year = {2022}, author = {Cunze, S and Glock, G and Kochmann, J and Klimpel, S}, title = {Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {121}, number = {8}, pages = {2241-2252}, pmid = {35641833}, issn = {1432-1955}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Dermacentor ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Humans ; *Ixodes ; *Tick-Borne Diseases/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Tick-borne diseases are a major health problem worldwide and could become even more important in Europe in the future. Due to changing climatic conditions, ticks are assumed to be able to expand their ranges in Europe towards higher latitudes and altitudes, which could result in an increased occurrence of tick-borne diseases.There is a great interest to identify potential (new) areas of distribution of vector species in order to assess the future infection risk with vector-borne diseases, improve surveillance, to develop more targeted monitoring program, and, if required, control measures.Based on an ecological niche modelling approach we project the climatic suitability for the three tick species Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus under current and future climatic conditions in Europe. These common tick species also feed on humans and livestock and are vector competent for a number of pathogens.For niche modelling, we used a comprehensive occurrence data set based on several databases and publications and six bioclimatic variables in a maximum entropy approach. For projections, we used the most recent IPCC data on current and future climatic conditions including four different scenarios of socio-economic developments.Our models clearly support the assumption that the three tick species will benefit from climate change with projected range expansions towards north-eastern Europe and wide areas in central Europe with projected potential co-occurrence.A higher tick biodiversity and locally higher abundances might increase the risk of tick-borne diseases, although other factors such as pathogen prevalence and host abundances are also important.}, }
@article {pmid35641672, year = {2022}, author = {Gewin, V}, title = {A down-to-earth approach to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {606}, number = {7912}, pages = {218}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-01500-w}, pmid = {35641672}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Earth, Planet ; }, }
@article {pmid35641573, year = {2022}, author = {Parihar, RS and Bal, PK and Saini, A and Mishra, SK and Thapliyal, A}, title = {Potential future malaria transmission in Odisha due to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {9048}, pmid = {35641573}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Future projections of malaria transmission is made for Odisha, a highly endemic region of India, through numerical simulations using the VECTRI dynamical model. The model is forced with bias-corrected temperature and rainfall from a global climate model (CCSM4) for the baseline period 1975-2005 and for the projection periods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP8.5 emission scenario. The temperature, rainfall, mosquito density and entomological inoculation rate (EIR), generated from the VECTRI model are evaluated with the observation and analyzed further to estimate the future malaria transmission over Odisha on a spatio-temporal scale owing to climate change. Our results reveal that the malaria transmission in Odisha as a whole during summer and winter monsoon seasons may decrease in future due to the climate change except in few districts with the high elevations and dense forest regions such as Kandhamal, Koraput, Raygada and Mayurbhanj districts where an increase in malaria transmission is found. Compared to the baseline period, mosquito density shows decrease in most districts of the south, southwest, central, north and northwest regions of Odisha in 2030s, 2050s and 2080s. An overall decrease in malaria transmission of 20-40% (reduction in EIR) is seen during the monsoon season (June-Sept) over Odisha with the increased surface temperature of 3.5-4 °C and with the increased rainfall of 20-35% by the end of the century with respect to the baseline period. Furthermore, malaria transmission is likely to reduce in future over most of the Odisha regions with the increase in future warm and cold nights temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid35641111, year = {2022}, author = {Patterson, DW and Harvey, R and Matkovic, V and Hesselman, M and Tahzib, F}, title = {Post COP26: legal action now part of public health's environment and climate change toolbox.}, journal = {European journal of public health}, volume = {32}, number = {4}, pages = {519-520}, doi = {10.1093/eurpub/ckac057}, pmid = {35641111}, issn = {1464-360X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid35640005, year = {2022}, author = {Lorenz, C and de Azevedo, TS and Chiaravalloti-Neto, F}, title = {Impact of climate change on West Nile virus distribution in South America.}, journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene}, volume = {116}, number = {11}, pages = {1043-1053}, doi = {10.1093/trstmh/trac044}, pmid = {35640005}, issn = {1878-3503}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *West Nile virus ; *West Nile Fever/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Mosquito Vectors ; Brazil ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is a vector-borne pathogen of global relevance and is currently the most widely distributed flavivirus causing encephalitis worldwide. Climate conditions have direct and indirect impacts on vector abundance and virus dynamics within the mosquito. The significance of environmental variables as drivers in WNV epidemiology is increasing under the current climate change scenario. In this study we used a machine learning algorithm to model WNV distributions in South America.<br><br>METHODS: Our model evaluated eight environmental variables for their contribution to the occurrence of WNV since its introduction in South America in 2004.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results showed that environmental variables can directly alter the occurrence of WNV, with lower precipitation and higher temperatures associated with increased virus incidence. High-risk areas may be modified in the coming years, becoming more evident with high greenhouse gas emission levels. Countries such as Bolivia, Paraguay and several Brazilian areas, mainly in the northeast and midwest regions and the Pantanal biome, will be greatly affected, drastically changing the current WNV distribution.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the linkages between climatological and ecological change as determinants of disease emergence and redistribution will help optimize preventive strategies. Increased virus surveillance, integrated modelling and the use of geographically based data systems will provide more anticipatory measures by the scientific community.}, }
@article {pmid35638389, year = {2022}, author = {Mos, B and Mos, D}, title = {Range expansion of a widespread Indo-Pacific haemulid, the barred javelin Pomadasys kaakan (Cuvier, 1830), in a climate change hotspot.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {101}, number = {3}, pages = {736-740}, pmid = {35638389}, issn = {1095-8649}, support = {IN2000100026//Australian Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Fishes ; New South Wales ; Queensland ; }, abstract = {The authors report a first sighting of a euryhaline fish in the climate change hotspot along Australia's south-eastern coast. The barred javelin, Pomadasys kaakan (Cuvier, 1830) was found in the Nambucca River in New South Wales, Australia, during 2021 and 2022. Specimens were adult, suggesting they may not be transitory vagrants. The new southernmost location recorded here represents a c. 200 km out-of-range sighting compared to previous records, and is c. 380 km south of the southernmost Australian stronghold of the species in Moreton Bay, Queensland.}, }
@article {pmid35636881, year = {2022}, author = {Bapatla, KG and Singh, AD and Sengottaiyan, V and Korada, RR and Yeddula, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on Helicoverpa armigera voltinism in different Agro-Climatic Zones of India.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {106}, number = {}, pages = {103229}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2022.103229}, pmid = {35636881}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; India ; *Moths ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Gram pod borer, Helicoverpa armigera (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera) is a cosmopolitan agricultural insect pest that prefers to feed on plant's protein biomolecules. Out of different density-independent factors, surface air temperature majorly affects the incidence and damage of the H. armigera on the crops. Early prediction of H. armigera generations (voltinism) in future climate years perhaps prevent additional damage in various crops and improve the farmers preparedness. In this study, future climate data that is temperature obtained for eleven Agro-Climatic Zones (ACZs) of India under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios in different climate years (2010, 2030, 2050, 2070, 2090) using weather file generator MarkSim web application. The accumulation of Growing Degree-days (GDD) by H. armigera at eleven ACZs in each climate year under different RCP scenarios was estimated using temperature data. The mean surface air temperature is predicted to 0.51 °C, 1.03 °C, 1.57 °C and 2.1 °C in climate years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090, which escalated annual H. armigera Gen. to 12.88, 13.33, 13.79 and 14.23, respectively over the baseline climate year 2010. Likewise, under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios H. armigera Gen. is predicted to 12.86, 13.29, 13.23 and 13.97 per annum with mean surface air temperatures 27.4 °C, 27.92 °C, 27.86 °C and 28.72 °C, respectively. The Eastern Coastal Plains and Hills Zone (ACZ 11) across climate years and RCPs has experienced a considerable increase in mean surface air temperature minimum (25.22 °C) and maximum (34.61 °C), which likely favor the GDD accumulation (6319.91) and the Genrations (14.97) in H. armigera. Therefore, the Eastern Coastal Plains and Hills Zone of India could be identified as H. armigera risk zone in near future. The present predictions in various ACZs of India may be significant in planning H. armigera management.}, }
@article {pmid35636534, year = {2022}, author = {St-Laurent, MH and Boulanger, Y and Cyr, D and Manka, F and Drapeau, P and Gauthier, S}, title = {Lowering the rate of timber harvesting to mitigate impacts of climate change on boreal caribou habitat quality in eastern Canada.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {838}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {156244}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156244}, pmid = {35636534}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Reindeer ; }, abstract = {Many boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) have declined in Canada, a trend essentially driven by the increasing footprint of anthropogenic disturbances and the resulting habitat-mediated apparent competition that increases predation pressure. However, the influence of climate change on these ecological processes remains poorly understood. We evaluated how climate change will affect boreal caribou habitat over the 2030-2100 horizon and in a 9.94 Mha study area, using a climate-sensitive simulation ensemble that integrates climate-induced changes in stand dynamics, fire regime, and different levels of commercial timber harvesting. We assessed the relative importance of these three drivers under projections made using different radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Habitat quality was estimated from resource selection functions built with telemetry data collected from 121 caribou between 2004 and 2011 in 7 local populations. At the beginning of our simulations, caribou habitat was already structured along a south-to-north increasing quality gradient. Simulations revealed changes in forest cover that are driven by climate-induced variations in fire regime and scenarios of harvesting levels, resulting in the loss of older coniferous forests and an increase in deciduous stands. These changes induced a generalized decrease in the average habitat quality and in the percentage of high-quality habitat for caribou, and in a northward recession of suitable habitat. Timber harvesting was the most important agent of change for the 2030-2050 horizon, although it was slowly replaced by changes in fire regime until 2100. Our results clearly showed that it is possible to maintain the current average habitat quality for caribou in future scenarios that consider a reduction in harvested volumes, the only lever under our control. This suggests that we still have the capacity to conciliate socioeconomic development and caribou conservation imperatives in the face of climate change, an important issue debated throughout the species distribution range.}, }
@article {pmid35635915, year = {2022}, author = {Uhl, A and Hahn, HJ and Jäger, A and Luftensteiner, T and Siemensmeyer, T and Döll, P and Noack, M and Schwenk, K and Berkhoff, S and Weiler, M and Karwautz, C and Griebler, C}, title = {Making waves: Pulling the plug-Climate change effects will turn gaining into losing streams with detrimental effects on groundwater quality.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {220}, number = {}, pages = {118649}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2022.118649}, pmid = {35635915}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Groundwater ; *Rivers ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {In many parts of the world, climate change has already caused a decline in groundwater recharge, whereas groundwater demand for drinking water production and irrigation continues to increase. In such regions, groundwater tables are steadily declining with major consequences for groundwater-surface water interactions. Predominantly gaining streams that rely on discharge of groundwater from the adjacent aquifer turn into predominantly losing streams whose water seeps into the underground. This reversal of groundwater-surface water interactions is associated with an increase of low river flows, drying of stream beds, and a switch of lotic ecosystems from perennial to intermittent, with consequences for fluvial and groundwater dependent ecosystems. Moreover, water infiltrating from rivers and streams can carry a complex mix of contaminants. Accordingly, the diversity and concentrations of compounds detected in groundwater has been increasing over the past decades. During low flow, stream and river discharge may consist mainly of treated wastewater. In losing stream systems, this contaminated water seeps into the adjoining aquifers. This threatens both ecosystems as well as drinking and irrigation water quality. Climate change is therefore severely altering landscape water balances, with groundwater-surface water-interactions having reached a tipping point in many cases. Current model projections harbor huge uncertainties and scientific evidence for these tipping points remains very limited. In particular, quantitative data on groundwater-surface water-interactions are scarce both on the local and the catchment scale. The result is poor public or political awareness, and appropriate management measures await implementation.}, }
@article {pmid35634686, year = {2022}, author = {Can, &#x130; and Yürekli, A}, title = {Effect of global warming on dermatology practice: The increase in cases of cutaneous larva migrans in the eastern Black Sea region of Turkey.}, journal = {Journal of cosmetic dermatology}, volume = {21}, number = {9}, pages = {3929-3933}, doi = {10.1111/jocd.15128}, pmid = {35634686}, issn = {1473-2165}, mesh = {Black Sea ; *Dermatology ; Global Warming ; Humans ; *Larva Migrans/epidemiology ; Retrospective Studies ; Soil ; Tea ; Turkey/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Cutaneous larva migrans (CLM) is a parasitic disease seen in people in contact with soil in tropical countries. Almost all cases reported in regions without a tropical climate have a history of travel to a tropical region.<br><br>AIM: In our study, we aimed to investigate the effect of climate change on CLM cases and the demographic characteristics of these cases. For this purpose, the climate information of the period in which we determined the case series and the characteristics of the patients were investigated.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHOD: The study was designed retrospectively. Patient files and pre- and post-treatment photographic archives were reviewed retrospectively. In addition, the region's weather history over the last 50&#x2009;years was examined.<br><br>RESULTS: The records of patients diagnosed with CLM in 2018 were reviewed retrospectively. In total, 22 cases were detected. The common feature of all cases was that they worked as tea pickers. After examining the weather conditions of the period when the cases were commonly reported, it was determined that there was a sharp temperature increase compared with previous years.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Due to climate change, an increase in the number of CLM cases is observed in non-tropical regions. Since it is considered a disease-specific to tropical regions, the diagnosis may be overlooked in cases outside these regions. However, CLM should be kept in mind as a diagnostic possibility by clinicians practicing in non-tropical regions as well, especially when treating patients who work with soil, such as tea harvesters.}, }
@article {pmid35634557, year = {2022}, author = {Morgado, JN and Santeramo, F and Lamonaca, E and Ciliberti, MG and Caroprese, M}, title = {Meta-analysis and systematic literature review of climate change effects on livestock welfare.}, journal = {EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority}, volume = {20}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {e200413}, pmid = {35634557}, issn = {1831-4732}, abstract = {Climate change is a phenomenon that includes different dramatic events that deeply affect the physiology of animal species both directly and indirectly with qualitative-quantitative impacts on livestock performances and health. The implications of climate change on animal welfare and on production demand are complex and call for a multidisciplinary approach which involved both animal science and economic sciences. The current technical report will describe the activities performed by the fellow while placed at the University of Foggia, Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Engineering, in Italy. Furthermore, the work programme offered by the hosting site consisted in performing a systematic literature review, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) Statement, and a quantitative synthesis of the literature on the impact of climate change events (e.g. heat stress) on livestock welfare and productivity and the effect of heat relieving strategies on the animals' performance.}, }
@article {pmid35633370, year = {2022}, author = {Berberian, AG and Gonzalez, DJX and Cushing, LJ}, title = {Racial Disparities in Climate Change-Related Health Effects in the United States.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {451-464}, pmid = {35633370}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {Adult ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change is causing warming over most parts of the USA and more extreme weather events. The health impacts of these changes are not experienced equally. We synthesize the recent evidence that climatic changes linked to global warming are having a disparate impact on the health of people of color, including children.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Multiple studies of heat, extreme cold, hurricanes, flooding, and wildfires find evidence that people of color, including Black, Latinx, Native American, Pacific Islander, and Asian communities are at higher risk of climate-related health impacts than Whites, although this is not always the case. Studies of adults have found evidence of racial disparities related to climatic changes with respect to mortality, respiratory and cardiovascular disease, mental health, and heat-related illness. Children are particularly vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change, and infants and children of color have experienced adverse perinatal outcomes, occupational heat stress, and increases in emergency department visits associated with extreme weather. The evidence strongly suggests climate change is an environmental injustice that is likely to exacerbate existing racial disparities across a broad range of health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid35633204, year = {2022}, author = {Rastetter, EB and Kwiatkowski, BL and Kicklighter, DW and Barker Plotkin, A and Genet, H and Nippert, JB and O'Keefe, K and Perakis, SS and Porder, S and Roley, SS and Ruess, RW and Thompson, JR and Wieder, WR and Wilcox, K and Yanai, RD}, title = {N and P constrain C in ecosystems under climate change: Role of nutrient redistribution, accumulation, and stoichiometry.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {32}, number = {8}, pages = {e2684}, pmid = {35633204}, issn = {1939-5582}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Soil ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Nutrients ; }, abstract = {We use the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to examine responses of 12 ecosystems to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), warming, and 20% decreases or increases in precipitation. Ecosystems respond synergistically to elevated CO2 , warming, and decreased precipitation combined because higher water-use efficiency with elevated CO2 and higher fertility with warming compensate for responses to drought. Response to elevated CO2 , warming, and increased precipitation combined is additive. We analyze changes in ecosystem carbon (C) based on four nitrogen (N) and four phosphorus (P) attribution factors: (1) changes in total ecosystem N and P, (2) changes in N and P distribution between vegetation and soil, (3) changes in vegetation C:N and C:P ratios, and (4) changes in soil C:N and C:P ratios. In the combined CO2 and climate change simulations, all ecosystems gain C. The contributions of these four attribution factors to changes in ecosystem C storage varies among ecosystems because of differences in the initial distributions of N and P between vegetation and soil and the openness of the ecosystem N and P cycles. The net transfer of N and P from soil to vegetation dominates the C response of forests. For tundra and grasslands, the C gain is also associated with increased soil C:N and C:P. In ecosystems with symbiotic N fixation, C gains resulted from N accumulation. Because of differences in N versus P cycle openness and the distribution of organic matter between vegetation and soil, changes in the N and P attribution factors do not always parallel one another. Differences among ecosystems in C-nutrient interactions and the amount of woody biomass interact to shape ecosystem C sequestration under simulated global change. We suggest that future studies quantify the openness of the N and P cycles and changes in the distribution of C, N, and P among ecosystem components, which currently limit understanding of nutrient effects on C sequestration and responses to elevated CO2 and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35628697, year = {2022}, author = {Biketova, AY and Catana, R and Kosakyan, A}, title = {Biodiversity, Distribution, and Conservation of Plants and Fungi: Effects of Global Warming and Environmental Stress.}, journal = {Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {35628697}, issn = {2309-608X}, abstract = {The estimation of global biodiversity and its conservation is an old, but still unresolved, concern in biology [...].}, }
@article {pmid35627774, year = {2022}, author = {Yi, L and Sun, Y and Ouyang, X and Yin, S}, title = {Identifying the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Cover Changes: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Basin, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {35627774}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is a useful indicator to characterize vegetation development and land use which can effectively monitor changes in ecological environments. As an important area for ecological balance and safety in China, understanding the dynamic changes in land cover and vegetation of the Yangtze River Basin would be crucial in developing effective policies and strategies to protect its natural environment while promoting sustainable growth. Based on MODIS-NDVI data and meteorological data from 2000 to 2019, the temporal and spatial distribution of vegetation coverage in the Yangtze River Basin during the past 20 years were characterized, and the impacts of human activities and climate change were quantitatively evaluated. We drew the following research conclusions: (1) From 2000 to 2019, the vegetation cover of the Yangtze River Basin presented a fluctuating inter-annual growth trend. Except for the Taihu Lake sub-basin, the vegetation cover in other sub-basins showed an upward trend. (2) The vegetation cover exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the middle and low in the east and west", with the multi-year average value of NDVI being 0.5153. (3) Areas with improved vegetation cover were significantly larger than the areas with degraded foliage. The central region has stronger overall trend of change than the east, and the east is stronger than the west. These vegetation cover changes are largely related to anthropogenic activities. (4) Vegetation cover changes due to precipitation and temperature exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. While both temperature and precipitation influenced vegetation cover, the temperature was the leading climate factor in the area. (5) Anthropogenic and climate factors jointly promoted the change of vegetation cover in the Yangtze River Basin. Human activities contributed 79.29%, while climate change contributed 20.71%. This study could be used in subsequent studies analyzing the influencing factors affecting long-term vegetation cover in large-scale watersheds.}, }
@article {pmid35625420, year = {2022}, author = {Niu, X and Feng, P and Liu, DL and Wang, B and Waters, C and Zhao, N and Ma, T}, title = {Deficit Irrigation at Pre-Anthesis Can Balance Wheat Yield and Water Use Efficiency under Future Climate Change in North China Plain.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {35625420}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {51709263//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 51809086//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 212102110035//Key Scientific and Technological Project of Henan Province/ ; No. 201908410067//the State Scholarship Fund of China Scholarship Council/ ; 13480023//the Initial Fund for Doctoral Research of Henan University of Science and Technology, China/ ; No.FIRI2020-02//Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Deficit irrigation (DI) is a feasible strategy to enhance crop WUE and also has significant compensation effects on yield. Previous studies have found that DI has great potential to maintain crop production as full irrigation (FI) does. Therefore, adopting DI to improve crop production and safeguard groundwater resources is of great importance in water scarce regions, e.g., the North China Plain (NCP). Under the background of global warming, it is worth investigating whether DI continues to play such a key role under future climate scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: We studied the response of winter wheat yield and WUE to different DI levels at pre-anthesis under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model driven by 21 general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Additionally, we explored the effects of different nitrogen (N) fertilizer application rates on DI.<br><br>RESULTS: We found that simulated wheat yield would increase by 3.5-45.0%, with WUE increasing by 8.8-46.4% across all treatments under future climate change. Moderate deficit irrigation (DI3, &#x2264;0.4 PAWC at the sowing to flowering stage) under the N3 (150 kg N ha[-1]) condition was identified as the optimum irrigation schedule for the study site under future climate change. However, compensation effects of DI3 on yield and WUE became weak in the future, which was mainly due to increased growing season rainfall projected by GCMs. In addition, we found that N fertilizer application could mitigate the effect of DI3.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We highlight that in water scarce regions of NCP, DI remains an effective strategy to maintain higher yield and enhance water use under future climate scenarios. Results strongly suggest that moderate deficit irrigation under a 150 kg N ha[-1] condition could mitigate the contradiction between production and water consumption and ensure food safety in the NCP.}, }
@article {pmid35622915, year = {2022}, author = {Lingappa, UF and Stein, NT and Metcalfe, KS and Present, TM and Orphan, VJ and Grotzinger, JP and Knoll, AH and Trower, EJ and Gomes, ML and Fischer, WW}, title = {Early impacts of climate change on a coastal marine microbial mat ecosystem.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {8}, number = {21}, pages = {eabm7826}, pmid = {35622915}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Among the earliest consequences of climate change are extreme weather and rising sea levels-two challenges to which coastal environments are particularly vulnerable. Often found in coastal settings are microbial mats-complex, stratified microbial ecosystems that drive massive nutrient fluxes through biogeochemical cycles and have been important constituents of Earth's biosphere for eons. Little Ambergris Cay, in the Turks and Caicos Islands, supports extensive mats that vary sharply with relative water level. We characterized the microbial communities across this variation to understand better the emerging threat of sea level rise. In September 2017, the eyewall of category 5 Hurricane Irma transited the island. We monitored the impact and recovery from this devastating storm event. New mat growth proceeded rapidly, with patterns suggesting that storm perturbation may facilitate the adaptation of these ecosystems to changing sea level. Sulfur cycling, however, displayed hysteresis, stalling for >10 months after the hurricane and likely altering carbon storage potential.}, }
@article {pmid35622168, year = {2022}, author = {Lanza, K and Gohlke, J and Wang, S and Sheffield, PE and Wilhelmi, O}, title = {Climate change and physical activity: ambient temperature and urban trail use in Texas.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {8}, pages = {1575-1588}, pmid = {35622168}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {P30 ES023515/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; 78106//Robert Wood Johnson Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Exercise ; Humans ; *Pedestrians ; Temperature ; Texas ; }, abstract = {Individuals in the USA are insufficiently active, increasing their chronic disease risk. Extreme temperatures may reduce physical activity due to thermal discomfort. Cooler climate studies have suggested climate change may have a net positive effect on physical activity, yet research gaps remain for warmer climates and within-day physical activity patterns. We determined the association between ambient temperatures (contemporary and projected) and urban trail use in a humid subtropical climate. At a trail in Austin, TX, five electronic counters recorded hourly pedestrian and cyclist counts in 2019. Weather data were acquired from World Weather Online. Generalized additive models estimated the association between temperature and trail counts. We then combined the estimated exposure-response relation with weather projections from climate models for intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios by NASA NEX-GDDP. From summer to autumn to spring to winter, hourly trail counts shifted from bimodal (mid-morning and early-evening peaks) to one mid-day peak. Pedestrians were more likely to use the trail between 7 and 27 °C (45-81°F) with peak use at 17 °C (63°F) and cyclists between 15 and 33 °C (59-91°F) with peak use at 27 °C (81°F) than at temperature extremes. A net decrease in trail use was estimated by 2041-2060 (RCP4.5: pedestrians = - 4.5%, cyclists = - 1.1%; RCP8.5: pedestrians = - 6.6%, cyclists = - 1.6%) and 2081-2100 (RCP4.5: pedestrians = - 7.5%, cyclists = - 1.9%; RCP8.5: pedestrians = - 16%, cyclists = - 4.5%). Results suggest climate change may reduce trail use. We recommend interventions for thermal comfort at settings for physical activity.}, }
@article {pmid35620645, year = {2021}, author = {Li, X and Junqueira, AB and Reyes-García, V}, title = {At the crossroad of emergency: ethnobiology, climate change, and Indigenous Peoples and local communities.}, journal = {Journal of ethnobiology}, volume = {41}, number = {3}, pages = {307-312}, pmid = {35620645}, issn = {0278-0771}, support = {771056/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, }
@article {pmid35620620, year = {2022}, author = {Selvaraj, JJ and Guerrero, D and Cifuentes-Ossa, MA and Guzmán Alvis, &#xc1;I}, title = {The economic vulnerability of fishing households to climate change in the south Pacific region of Colombia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {e09425}, pmid = {35620620}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change's direct and indirect effects on marine ecosystems and coastal areas mainly impact small-scale fishers, especially in developing countries, which present extreme poverty and high dependency on marine ecosystems as a source of food and sustenance for households. Understanding the vulnerability of fishing households and considering the associated socio-economic-political complexities is essential for preserving their livelihoods and maintaining their well-being. This study proposes a measure of economic vulnerability based on the capacity of fishing households in Tumaco, located on the southern Pacific coast of Colombia, to diversify their livelihoods. Different statistical procedures have been conducted to identify the most relevant strategies in reducing the economic vulnerability of households. The results indicate that reducing the vulnerability of fishing households depends on adaptation strategies such as occupational mobility, some elements of social capital, and reduced dependence on the fisheries resource. This study could constitute an input for creating public policy that guides efforts to achieve strategies for the generation of other livelihoods and the sustainability of fishing households that continue to choose fishing as their main economic activity.}, }
@article {pmid35619079, year = {2022}, author = {Nia, HS and Gorgulu, O and Naghavi, N and Froelicher, ES and Fomani, FK and Goudarzian, AH and Sharif, SP and Pourkia, R and Haghdoost, AA}, title = {Correction: A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning.}, journal = {BMC cardiovascular disorders}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {243}, pmid = {35619079}, issn = {1471-2261}, }
@article {pmid35618464, year = {2022}, author = {Khan, N}, title = {Our final warning: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and primary care.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {72}, number = {719}, pages = {271}, pmid = {35618464}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Primary Health Care ; }, }
@article {pmid35618008, year = {2022}, author = {Ray, A and Pandey, VP and Thapa, BR}, title = {An assessment of climate change impacts on water sufficiency: The case of Extended East Rapti watershed, Nepal.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {212}, number = {Pt D}, pages = {113434}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.113434}, pmid = {35618008}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Hydrology ; Nepal ; *Rivers ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {An understanding of water sufficiency provides a basis for informed-planning, development and management of water resources. This study assessed spatio-temporal distribution in water sufficiency in the Extended East Rapti watershed in Nepal. The "Palika" (local government unit) is considered as a spatial-scale and seasons and future periods as temporal-scale. The water sufficiency was evaluated based on water sufficiency ratio (WSR) and water stress index (WSI). A hydrological model was developed to simulate water availability. An ensemble of multiple Regional Climate Models was used for assessing climate change impacts. Results showed water sufficiency by mid-century is projected to decrease; WSR by 40% and WSI by 61%. Despite projected decrease in water sufficiency, annually available water resources are projected as sufficient for the demands until the mid-century, however, seasonal variability and scarcity in future is projected in most Palikas. Such results are useful for water security planning in the Palikas.}, }
@article {pmid35616123, year = {2023}, author = {Wild, K and Tapley, A and Fielding, A and Holliday, E and Ball, J and Horton, G and Blashki, G and Davey, A and van Driel, M and Turner, A and FitzGerald, K and Spike, N and Magin, P}, title = {Climate change and Australian general practice vocational education: a cross-sectional study.}, journal = {Family practice}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {435-441}, pmid = {35616123}, issn = {1460-2229}, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; Australia ; Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *General Practice/education ; *General Practitioners ; Vocational Education ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a rapidly progressing threat to global health and well-being. For general practitioners (GPs) currently in training, the effects of climate change on public health will shape their future professional practice We aimed to establish the prevalence and associations of Australian GP registrars' (trainees') perceptions of climate change as it relates to public health, education, and workplaces.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire-based study of GP registrars of three Australian training organizations. The questionnaire assessed attitudes regarding adverse health effects of climate change (over the next 10-20 years), and agreement with statements on (i) integrating health impacts of climate change into GP vocational training, and (ii) GPs' role in making general practices environmentally sustainable.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 879 registrars who participated (response rate 91%), 50.4% (95% CI 46.8%, 54.0%) perceived a large or very large future health effect of climate change on their patients, and 61.8% (95% CI 58.6%, 65.0%) agreed that climate health impacts should be integrated within their education programme. 77.8% (95% CI 74.9%, 80.4%) agreed that GPs should have a leadership role in their practices' environmental sustainability. Multivariable associations of these attitudes included female gender, training region, and (for the latter two outcomes) perceptions of future impact of climate change on patient health.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: GP registrars are motivated to receive climate health education and engage in environmentally sustainable practice. This may primarily reflect concern for future practice and patient care.}, }
@article {pmid35615736, year = {2022}, author = {Gregersen, T and Doran, R and Böhm, G and Sætrevik, B}, title = {Did concern about COVID-19 drain from a 'finite pool of worry' for climate change? Results from longitudinal panel data.}, journal = {The journal of climate change and health}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {100144}, pmid = {35615736}, issn = {2667-2782}, abstract = {According to the 'finite pool of worry' hypothesis, one may expect that introducing a novel concern (e.g., about a pandemic) may reduce concern about an existing issue (e.g., about climate change). Drawing upon representative longitudinal panel data from Norway (N = 7998), this paper explores if and how worry about climate change changed from January 2020 (before COVID-19 was detected in Norway) to January 2021 (during one of the pandemic waves). The current analyses indicate a small but significant decrease in worry about climate change among the general public during this time interval, in particular among respondents born before 1980. However, the change in climate change worry did not correlate with worrying about personally becoming infected with COVID-19 or with family members being infected. Thus, the results do not indicate a mechanism of worrying about COVID-19 infections leading to a decrease in people's worry about climate change. The findings are discussed in relation to empirical evidence from other countries, where climate change risk perceptions have been monitored during the recent pandemic. Possible explanations for observed differences in worry about climate change, as well as the lack of correlation between the change in climate change worry and worry about COVID-19, are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid35615676, year = {2022}, author = {Fernández, I and T Mozanzadeh, M and Hao, Y and Gisbert, E}, title = {Editorial: Physiological Impacts of Global Warming in Aquatic Organisms.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {914912}, pmid = {35615676}, issn = {1664-042X}, }
@article {pmid35615058, year = {2022}, author = {Rabbani, MMG and Cotton, M and Friend, R}, title = {Climate change and non-migration - exploring the role of place relations in rural and coastal Bangladesh.}, journal = {Population and environment}, volume = {44}, number = {1-2}, pages = {99-122}, pmid = {35615058}, issn = {0199-0039}, abstract = {Of growing research and policy interest are the experiences of people living under conditions of climate change-induced environmental stress, which either are unable to migrate (sometimes described as a 'trapped population') or are seemingly unwilling to do so (sometimes described as the 'voluntarily immobile'). This paper problematises and expands upon these binary categories: examining the complex dimensionality of non-migration as a form of place relations, explored through qualitative study of rural and coastal Bangladeshi communities. Through 60 semi-structured interviews of individuals from four communities in the Kalapara region, the analysis proffers four qualitatively derived and inter-related dimensions of voluntary and involuntary non-migration framed as a form of place relations. These four dimensions concern the following: (1) livelihood opportunities, (2) place obduracy, (3) risk perceptions, and (4) social-structural constraints, with the interplay between these elements explaining diverse non-migratory experiences. In our analysis, 'place obduracy' is introduced as a concept to describe the differential speed of environmental change and socio-cultural adaptation responses to explain non-migratory experiences. Our discussion provides insight into how to best support non-migrant people's adaptive capacity in the face of growing climate emergency.}, }
@article {pmid35615036, year = {2022}, author = {Whelan, M and Rahimi-Golkhandan, S and Brymer, E}, title = {The Relationship Between Climate Change Issue Engagement, Connection to Nature and Mental Wellbeing.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {790578}, pmid = {35615036}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {As the threat of climate change becomes increasingly prevalent for people in both the developed and developing world, the impact of climate change on mental wellbeing has become a crucial area of research. In addition to the direct, indirect, and psychosocial impacts of climate change on mental wellbeing, there is also a question of how climate change driven changes to the environment will influence the well-established positive relationship between connection to nature and mental wellbeing. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between climate change issue engagement, connection to nature, and mental wellbeing in English speaking adults over 18 years of age. This study examined the average levels of connection to nature and mental wellbeing in people with different levels of climate change issue engagement, and evaluated whether a person's level of climate change issue engagement uniquely predicted mental wellbeing. The study corroborated positive relationships between wellbeing and various aspects of relatedness to nature in the overall sample. The strength of these relationships, however, depended on the level of climate change issue engagement. More specifically, the level of engagement is inversely linked to mental wellbeing, such that the lower the level of engagement, generally the higher is wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid35614974, year = {2022}, author = {Ahmed, M and Hayat, R and Ahmad, M and Ul-Hassan, M and Kheir, AMS and Ul-Hassan, F and Ur-Rehman, MH and Shaheen, FA and Raza, MA and Ahmad, S}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Dryland Agricultural Systems: A Review of Current Status, Potentials, and Further Work Need.}, journal = {International journal of plant production}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {341-363}, pmid = {35614974}, issn = {1735-6814}, abstract = {Dryland agricultural system is under threat due to climate extremes and unsustainable management. Understanding of climate change impact is important to design adaptation options for dry land agricultural systems. Thus, the present review was conducted with the objectives to identify gaps and suggest technology-based intervention that can support dry land farming under changing climate. Careful management of the available agricultural resources in the region is a current need, as it will play crucial role in the coming decades to ensure food security, reduce poverty, hunger, and malnutrition. Technology based regional collaborative interventions among Universities, Institutions, Growers, Companies etc. for water conservation, supplemental irrigation, foliar sprays, integrated nutrient management, resilient crops-based cropping systems, artificial intelligence, and precision agriculture (modeling and remote sensing) are needed to support agriculture of the region. Different process-based models have been used in different regions around the world to quantify the impacts of climate change at field, regional, and national scales to design management options for dryland cropping systems. Modeling include water and nutrient management, ideotype designing, modification in tillage practices, application of cover crops, insect, and disease management. However, diversification in the mixed and integrated crop and livestock farming system is needed to have profitable, sustainable business. The main focus in this work is to recommend different agro-adaptation measures to be part of policies for sustainable agricultural production systems in future.}, }
@article {pmid35613533, year = {2022}, author = {Li, A and Wang, M and Kroeze, C and Ma, L and Strokal, M}, title = {Past and future pesticide losses to Chinese waters under socioeconomic development and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {317}, number = {}, pages = {115361}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115361}, pmid = {35613533}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Climate Change ; *Pesticides/analysis ; Rivers ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Increasing pesticide use pollutes Chinese surface waters. Pesticides often enter waters through surface runoff from agricultural fields. This occurs especially during heavy rainfall events. Socio-economic development and climate change may accelerate future loss of pesticides to surface waters due to increasing food production and rainfall events. The main objective of this study is to model past and future pesticide losses to Chinese waters under socio-economic development and climate change. To this end, we developed a pesticide model with local information to quantify the potential pesticide runoff from near-stream agriculture to surface waters after heavy rainfall. We project future trends in potential pesticide runoff. For this, we developed three scenarios: Sustainability, "Middle of the Road" and Economy-first. These scenarios are based on combined Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. We identified hotspots with high potential pesticide runoff. The results show that the potential pesticide runoff increased by 45% from 2000 to 2010, nationally. Over 50% of the national pesticide runoff in 2000 was in five provinces. Over 60% of the Chinese population lived in pesticide polluted hotspots in 2000. For the future, trends differ among scenarios and years. The largest increase is projected for the Economy-first scenario, where the potential pesticide runoff is projected to increase by 85% between 2010 and 2099. Future pesticide pollution hotspots are projected to concentrate in the south and south-east of China. This is the net-effect of high pesticide application, intensive crop production and high precipitation due to climate change. In our scenarios, 58%-84% of the population is projected to live in pesticide polluted hotspots from 2050 onwards. These projections can support the development of regional management strategies to control pesticide pollution in waters in the future.}, }
@article {pmid35613004, year = {2022}, author = {Nogueira, L and White, KE and Bell, B and Alegria, KE and Bennett, G and Edmondson, D and Epel, E and Holman, EA and Kronish, IM and Thayer, J}, title = {The Role of Behavioral Medicine in Addressing Climate Change-Related Health Inequities.}, journal = {Translational behavioral medicine}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {526-534}, pmid = {35613004}, issn = {1613-9860}, support = {5T32CA250803-02/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Behavioral Medicine ; Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; Health Inequities ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in human history. It has been declared a public health emergency by the World Health Organization and leading researchers from academic institutions around the globe. Structural racism disproportionately exposes communities targeted for marginalization to the harmful consequences of climate change through greater risk of exposure and sensitivity to climate hazards and less adaptive capacity to the health threats of climate change. Given its interdisciplinary approach to integrating behavioral, psychosocial, and biomedical knowledge, the discipline of behavioral medicine is uniquely qualified to address the systemic causes of climate change-related health inequities and can offer a perspective that is currently missing from many climate and health equity efforts. In this article, we summarize relevant concepts, describe how climate change and structural racism intersect to exacerbate health inequities, and recommend six strategies with the greatest potential for addressing climate-related health inequities.}, }
@article {pmid35613002, year = {2022}, author = {Diefenbach, MA and Miller, SM and Hall, KL}, title = {Climate change and behavior: considerations for the behavioral medicine community and a call to action.}, journal = {Translational behavioral medicine}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {501-502}, doi = {10.1093/tbm/ibac039}, pmid = {35613002}, issn = {1613-9860}, mesh = {*Behavioral Medicine ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid35613001, year = {2022}, author = {Edmondson, D and Conroy, D and Romero-Canyas, R and Tanenbaum, M and Czajkowski, S}, title = {Climate change, behavior change and health: a multidisciplinary, translational and multilevel perspective.}, journal = {Translational behavioral medicine}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {503-515}, pmid = {35613001}, issn = {1613-9860}, support = {U24 AG052175/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Behavior ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The climate crisis provides a critical new lens through which health and health behaviors need to be viewed. This paper has three goals. First, it provides background on the climate crisis, the role of human behavior in creating this crisis, and the health impacts of climate change. Second, it proposes a multilevel, translational approach to investigating health behavior change in the context of the climate crisis. Third, it identifies specific challenges and opportunities for increasing the rigor of behavioral medicine research in the context of the climate crisis. The paper closes with a call for behavioral medicine to be responsive to the climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid35613000, year = {2022}, author = {Peters, E and Boyd, P and Cameron, LD and Contractor, N and Diefenbach, MA and Fleszar-Pavlovic, S and Markowitz, E and Salas, RN and Stephens, KK}, title = {Evidence-based recommendations for communicating the impacts of climate change on health.}, journal = {Translational behavioral medicine}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {543-553}, pmid = {35613000}, issn = {1613-9860}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communication ; Emotions ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a multifaceted, complex, and existential threat to human health and well-being, but efforts to communicate these threats to the public lag behind what we know how to do in communication research. Effective communication about climate change's health risks can improve a wide variety of individual and population health-related outcomes by: (1) helping people better make the connection between climate change and health risks and (2) empowering them to act on that newfound knowledge and understanding. The aim of this manuscript is to highlight communication methods that have received empirical support for improving knowledge uptake and/or driving higher-quality decision making and healthier behaviors and to recommend how to apply them at the intersection of climate change and health. This expert consensus about effective communication methods can be used by healthcare professionals, decision makers, governments, the general public, and other stakeholders including sectors outside of health. In particular, we argue for the use of 11 theory-based, evidence-supported communication strategies and practices. These methods range from leveraging social networks to making careful choices about the use of language, narratives, emotions, visual images, and statistics. Message testing with appropriate groups is also key. When implemented properly, these approaches are likely to improve the outcomes of climate change and health communication efforts.}, }
@article {pmid35610457, year = {2022}, author = {Ntiamoah, EB and Li, D and Appiah-Otoo, I and Twumasi, MA and Yeboah, EN}, title = {Towards a sustainable food production: modelling the impacts of climate change on maize and soybean production in Ghana.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {48}, pages = {72777-72796}, pmid = {35610457}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Fertilizers ; Ghana ; Glycine max ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {The Ghanaian economy relies heavily on maize and soybean production. The entire maize and soybean production system is low-tech, making it extremely susceptible to environmental factors. As a result, climate change and variability have an influence on agricultural production, such as maize and soybean yields. Therefore, the study's ultimate purpose was to analyze the influence of CO2 emissions, precipitation, domestic credit, and fertilizer consumption on maize and soybean productivity in Ghana by utilizing the newly constructed dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the period 1990 to 2020. The findings indicated that climate change enhances maize and soybean yields in Ghana in both the short run and long run. Also, the results from the frequency domain causality showed that climate change causes maize and soybean yield in the long-run. These outcomes were robust to the use of the ordinary least squares estimator and the impulse response technique. The findings show that crop and water management strategies, as well as information availability, should be considered in food production to improve resistance to climate change and adverse climatic circumstances.}, }
@article {pmid35610235, year = {2022}, author = {Beillouin, D and Demenois, J and Cardinael, R and Berre, D and Corbeels, M and Fallot, A and Boyer, A and Feder, F}, title = {A global database of land management, land-use change and climate change effects on soil organic carbon.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {228}, pmid = {35610235}, issn = {2052-4463}, abstract = {Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) in natural and cultivated ecosystems is proposed as a natural climate solution to limit global warming. SOC dynamics is driven by numerous factors such as land-use change, land management and climate change. The amount of additional carbon potentially stored in the soil is the subject of much debate in the scientific community. We present a global database compiling the results of 217 meta-analyses analyzing the effects of land management, land-use change and climate change on SOC. We report a total of 15,857 effect sizes, 6,550 directly related to soil carbon, and 9,307 related to other associated soil or plant variables. The database further synthesizes results of 13,632 unique primary studies across more than 150 countries that were used in the meta-analyses. Meta-analyses and their effect sizes and were classified by type of intervention and land use, outcomes, country and region. This database helps to understand the drivers of SOC sequestration, the associated co-benefits and potential drawbacks, and is a useful tool to guide future global climate change policies.}, }
@article {pmid35610063, year = {2022}, author = {Pinsky, ML and Comte, L and Sax, DF}, title = {Unifying climate change biology across realms and taxa.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {37}, number = {8}, pages = {672-682}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2022.04.011}, pmid = {35610063}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Biology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {A major challenge in modern biology is to understand extinction risk from climate change across all realms. Recent research has revealed that physiological tolerance, behavioral thermoregulation, and small elevation shifts are dominant coping strategies on land, whereas large-scale latitudinal shifts are more important in the ocean. Freshwater taxa may face the highest global extinction risks. Nevertheless, some species in each realm face similar risks because of shared adaptive, dispersal, or physiological tolerances and abilities. Taking a cross-realm perspective offers unique research opportunities because confounding physical factors in one realm are often disaggregated in another realm. Cross-realm, across taxa, and other forms of climate change biology synthesis are needed to advance our understanding of emergent patterns of risk across all life.}, }
@article {pmid35609654, year = {2022}, author = {Nasiri, R and Zarandi, SM and Bayat, M and Amini, A}, title = {Design a protocol to investigate the effects of climate change in vivo.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {212}, number = {Pt D}, pages = {113482}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.113482}, pmid = {35609654}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Fires ; Floods ; Male ; Rats ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a variety of effects on communities and the environment, most of which have been directly addressed, such as floods, droughts, and fires. To date, the impacts of climate change on health in in vivo conditions have not been assessed, and no protocol has been developed in this regard. Therefore, the purpose of the current study is to develop a protocol as well as design and build a pilot to deal with climate change in vivo to show the direct effects of climate change on health. For this purpose, twenty specialists, comprising ten experts active in field climate and 10 experts in field medicine and anatomy, have been consulted to design the proposed exposure protocol using the Delphi method. According to the prepared protocol, an exposure pilot was then designed and built, which provides the climatic conditions for animal exposure with a fully automatic HMI-PLC system. The results showed the average 12:12-h day/night temperature, humidity, and circadian cycle for three consecutive ten-year periods selected for exposure of 1-month-old male rats. The duration of the exposure period is four months, which is equivalent to a ten-year climatic period. This study is a framework and a starting point for examining the effects of climate change on in vivo conditions that have not yet been considered.}, }
@article {pmid35608778, year = {2022}, author = {Wortzel, JD and Champlin, LK and Wortzel, JR and Lewis, J and Haase, E and Mark, B}, title = {Reframing Climate Change: Using Children's Literature as a Residency Training Tool to Address Climate Anxiety and Model Innovation.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {584-585}, pmid = {35608778}, issn = {1545-7230}, support = {R25 MH125769/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Anxiety ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Creativity ; Humans ; *Internship and Residency ; }, }
@article {pmid35607482, year = {2022}, author = {Obubu, JP and Odong, R and Alamerew, T and Fetahi, T and Mengistou, S}, title = {Application of DPSIR model to identify the drivers and impacts of land use and land cover changes and climate change on land, water, and livelihoods in the L. Kyoga basin: implications for sustainable management.}, journal = {Environmental systems research}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {11}, pmid = {35607482}, issn = {2193-2697}, abstract = {Land use, land cover, and climate change impacts are current global challenges that are affecting many sectors, like agricultural production, socio-economic development, water quality, and causing land fragmentation. In developing countries like Uganda, rural areas with high populations dependent on agriculture are the most affected. The development of sustainable management measures requires proper identification of drivers and impacts on the environment and livelihoods of the affected communities. This study applied drivers, pressure, state, impact, and response model in the L. Kyoga basin to determine the drivers and impacts of land use, land cover, and climate change on livelihoods and the environment. The objective of this study was to determine the drivers and impacts of land use, land cover, and climate changes on the environment and livelihoods in the L. Kyoga basin and suggest sustainable mitigation measures. Focus group discussions, key informant interviews, field observations, and literature reviews were used to collect data. Population increase and climate change were the leading drivers, while agriculture and urbanization were the primary pressures, leading to degraded land, wetlands, and forests; loss of soil fertility, hunger, poverty, poor water quality, which are getting worse. The local communities, government, and non-government institutions had responses to impacts, including agrochemicals, restoration, and conservation approaches. Although most responses were at a small/pilot scale level, most responses had promising results. The application of policies and regulations to manage impacts was also found to be weak. Land use, land cover changes, and climate change occur in the L. Kyoga basin with major impacts on land, water, and community livelihoods. With the observed increase in climate change and population growth, drivers and impacts are potentially getting worse. Therefore, it is essential to expand interventions, provide relief, review policies and regulations, and enforce them. The findings are helpful for decisions and policy-makers to design appropriate management options.}, }
@article {pmid35606438, year = {2022}, author = {Coleman, J}, title = {Climate change made South Asian heatwave 30 times more likely.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-01444-1}, pmid = {35606438}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid35605122, year = {2022}, author = {Dreyfus, GB and Xu, Y and Shindell, DT and Zaelke, D and Ramanathan, V}, title = {Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach for avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {22}, pages = {e2123536119}, pmid = {35605122}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate ; Fossil Fuels ; *Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Gases ; }, abstract = {The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in both the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We clarify the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols in the context of near-term and long-term climate mitigation, as well as the net effect of decarbonization strategies targeting fossil fuel (FF) phaseout by 2050. Relying on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change radiative forcing, we show that the net historical (2019 to 1750) radiative forcing effect of CO2 and non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by FF sources plus the CO2 emitted by land-use changes is comparable to the net from non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by non-FF sources. We find that mitigation measures that target only decarbonization are essential for strong long-term cooling but can result in weak near-term warming (due to unmasking the cooling effect of coemitted aerosols) and lead to temperatures exceeding 2 °C before 2050. In contrast, pairing decarbonization with additional mitigation measures targeting short-lived climate pollutants and N2O, slows the rate of warming a decade or two earlier than decarbonization alone and avoids the 2 °C threshold altogether. These non-CO2 targeted measures when combined with decarbonization can provide net cooling by 2030 and reduce the rate of warming from 2030 to 2050 by about 50%, roughly half of which comes from methane, significantly larger than decarbonization alone over this time frame. Our analysis demonstrates the need for a comprehensive CO2 and targeted non-CO2 mitigation approach to address both the near-term and long-term impacts of climate disruption.}, }
@article {pmid35604802, year = {2022}, author = {Tian, H and Li, N and Li, Y and Kraemer, MUG and Tan, H and Liu, Y and Li, Y and Wang, B and Wu, P and Cazelles, B and Lourenço, J and Gao, D and Sun, D and Song, W and Li, Y and Pybus, OG and Wang, G and Dye, C}, title = {Erratum: Author Correction: Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change.}, journal = {Communications medicine}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {22}, doi = {10.1038/s43856-022-00089-5}, pmid = {35604802}, issn = {2730-664X}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s43856-022-00073-z.].}, }
@article {pmid35603993, year = {2022}, author = {Katzman, JG and Tomedi, LE and Herring, D and Jones, H and Groves, R and Norsworthy, K and Martin, C and Liu, J and Kazhe-Dominguez, B and Arora, S}, title = {Educating Community Health Professionals About the Health-Related Effects of Climate Change Through ECHO Telementoring.}, journal = {Journal of primary care &amp; community health}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {21501319221102033}, pmid = {35603993}, issn = {2150-1327}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Personnel/education ; Humans ; Prospective Studies ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is a global public health emergency causing extensive morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although most large medical organizations endorse the need to train health care professionals in climate change, such trainings are not readily available.<br><br>METHODS: This article describes the results of an 8-week, 75-min per week, Climate Change and Human Health ECHO (CCHH ECHO) synchronous telementoring course for post-licensure health professionals. The primary goals were: to increase knowledge, self-efficacy, and communication skills. Participants were eligible to receive up to 10&#x2009;h of no-cost continuing education credits and a certificate for completing the program.<br><br>RESULTS: The 8-week course included 625 unique participants from 25 countries. An interprofessional group of clinicians, health professionals, and educators included: 130/28% PhD, 92/20% MD/DO, 52/12% RN/NP/PA, 50/11% MPH. The prospective survey demonstrated a significant improvement in knowledge, confidence, attitudes (P&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001) and communication skills (P&#x2009;=&#x2009;.029) at 3&#x2009;months post course.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The climate crisis is a public health emergency, and health professionals worldwide are considered the most trusted source of health information. Training current and future health professionals regarding the health-related effects of global warming is vital. The CCHH ECHO may be a successful model to facilitate knowledge transfer and promote communication skills between subject matter experts and course participants.}, }
@article {pmid35603266, year = {2022}, author = {Tian, H and Li, N and Li, Y and Kraemer, MUG and Tan, H and Liu, Y and Li, Y and Wang, B and Wu, P and Cazelles, B and Lourenço, J and Gao, D and Sun, D and Song, W and Li, Y and Pybus, OG and Wang, G and Dye, C}, title = {Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change.}, journal = {Communications medicine}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {12}, pmid = {35603266}, issn = {2730-664X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Rigorous assessment of the effect of malaria control strategies on local malaria dynamics is a complex but vital step in informing future strategies to eliminate malaria. However, the interactions between climate forcing, mass drug administration, mosquito control and their effects on the incidence of malaria remain unclear.<br><br>METHODS: Here, we analyze the effects of interventions on the transmission dynamics of malaria (Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum) on Hainan Island, China, controlling for environmental factors. Mathematical models were fitted to epidemiological data, including confirmed cases and population-wide blood examinations, collected between 1995 and 2010, a period when malaria control interventions were rolled out with positive outcomes.<br><br>RESULTS: Prior to the massive scale-up of interventions, malaria incidence shows both interannual variability and seasonality, as well as a strong correlation with climatic patterns linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Based on our mechanistic model, we find that the reduction in malaria is likely due to the large scale rollout of insecticide-treated bed nets, which reduce the infections of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria by 93.4% and 35.5%, respectively. Mass drug administration has a greater contribution in the control of P. falciparum (54.9%) than P. vivax (5.3%). In a comparison of interventions, indoor residual spraying makes a relatively minor contribution to malaria control (1.3%-9.6%).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Although malaria transmission on Hainan Island has been exacerbated by El Nino Southern Oscillation, control methods have eliminated both P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria from this part of China.}, }
@article {pmid35602991, year = {2022}, author = {Ulichney, V and Jarcho, JM and Shipley, TF and Ham, J and Helion, C}, title = {Social comparison for concern and action on climate change, racial injustice, and COVID-19.}, journal = {Analyses of social issues and public policy : ASAP}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {35602991}, issn = {1529-7489}, support = {R21 HD093912/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Preventing the negative impacts of major, intersectional social issues hinges on personal concern and willingness to take action. This research examines social comparison in the context of climate change, racial injustice, and COVID-19 during Fall 2020. Participants in a U.S. university sample (n = 288), reported personal levels of concern and action and estimated peers' concern and action regarding these three issues. Participants estimated that they were more concerned than peers for all three issues and took more action than peers regarding COVID-19 and climate change. Participants who reported higher levels of personal concern also estimated that they took greater action than peers (relative to participants who reported lower levels of concern). Exploratory analyses found that perceived personal control over social issues were associated with greater concern and action for racial injustice and climate change but not for COVID-19. This indicates that issue-specific features, including perceived controllability, may drive people to differently assess their experiences of distinct social issues.}, }
@article {pmid35601236, year = {2022}, author = {Heyvaert, V}, title = {Governing Intersystemic Systemic Risks: Lessons from Covid and Climate Change.}, journal = {The Modern law review}, volume = {85}, number = {4}, pages = {938-967}, doi = {10.1111/1468-2230.12720}, pmid = {35601236}, issn = {0026-7961}, abstract = {This article argues that contemporary regulation of climate change risks and zoonotic disease risks - two seminal risks of our era - is deficient because it fails to account for the most distinctive characteristics of their risk profiles. These risks are part of a special category of intersystemic systemic risks, which are 'compound' in nature: they possess the potential to cascade across different systems and entail a liability to exponential growth across numbers of linked systems. Moreover, climate change and zoonotic disease risks are globalised, ubiquitous and entrenched. Effective governance of intersystemic systemic risks demands proactive regulatory intervention at the early stages of risk creation, and reliance on a more balanced basket of regulatory measures than is currently available. For climate change as well as zoonotic disease risk control, this calls for greater investment in assessment requirements, a less permissive approach to planning and development consent, and a commitment to phase out unsustainable production processes.}, }
@article {pmid35600677, year = {2022}, author = {Olesen, JM}, title = {Ego network analysis of the trophic structure of an island land bird through 300 years of climate change and invaders.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {e8916}, pmid = {35600677}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Ego net analysis is a well-known practice in social sciences, where an ego net (EN) consists of a focal node, the ego, and its links to other nodes, called alters, and alter-alter links may also be included. An EN describes how a focal node is embedded in its interaction context. Here, I introduce EN analysis to ecology in a study of the trophic network of a sub-Antarctic land bird, Lesser Sheathbill (Chionis minor). Data originate from the sheathbill population on Marion Island in the Southern Ocean. The bird is ego and its enemies and food are alters. The EN is organized along three dimensions: habitat, interaction type, and time (from before human arrival in 1803 and until a future year 2100). Ten EN descriptors are defined, estimated, and used to track the 300 years of change in sheathbill EN structure. Since 1803, the EN has passed two major, but reversible shifts-seal exploitation in the 19th century and presence of cats from 1949 to 1991. These shifts can be read as structural changes in the sheathbill EN. In the future, a third, perhaps irreversible change is predicted, driven by climate change and a surprising, recent shift to seabird predation by House Mouse, the most detrimental of all extant invaders on Marion. In a warmer and drier future, the mouse will proliferate, and if this forces seabirds to abandon the island, their accumulation of detritus runs dry, starving a rich invertebrate detritivore fauna, which also is a key food source to sheathbills. These detritivores together with plants have also constituted the main food sources of mice. The EN descriptors quantify that story. In the future, these events may lead to a collapse of the island ecosystem, including extinction of the sheathbill-unless plans for mouse eradication are implemented.}, }
@article {pmid35599301, year = {2023}, author = {Isler, MF and Coates, SJ and Boos, MD}, title = {Climate change, the cutaneous microbiome and skin disease: implications for a warming world.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {62}, number = {3}, pages = {337-345}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.16297}, pmid = {35599301}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Ultraviolet Rays ; Skin ; *Skin Diseases ; *Microbiota ; }, abstract = {The skin plays an important role in human health by providing barrier protection against environmental stressors. In addition to human skin cells, the cutaneous barrier is also home to a network of organisms that have co-evolved with humans, referred to as the cutaneous microbiome. This network has been demonstrated to play an active role in skin health and the manifestation of cutaneous disease. Here, we review how a warming world and its attendant changes in climatic variables, including temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and air pollution, influence the cutaneous microbiome and, in turn, skin health. Studies indicate that the cutaneous microbiome is affected by these factors, and these changes may influence the epidemiology and severity of cutaneous disorders including atopic dermatitis, acne vulgaris, psoriasis, and skin cancer. Further investigation into how the cutaneous microbiome changes in response to climate change and subsequently influences skin disease is needed to better anticipate future dermatologic needs and potentially generate novel therapeutic solutions in response.}, }
@article {pmid35597210, year = {2022}, author = {Ehsan, S and Begum, RA and Abdul Maulud, KN and Yaseen, ZM}, title = {Households' perceptions and socio-economic determinants of climate change awareness: Evidence from Selangor Coast Malaysia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {316}, number = {}, pages = {115261}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115261}, pmid = {35597210}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Family Characteristics ; Female ; Humans ; Malaysia ; Male ; }, abstract = {Households living in the close vicinity of shoreline are constantly threatened by various climate change impacts. Community awareness towards climate change is a subject of considerable study as adequate knowledge is a preliminary step for adaptation decision making. An important question is how coastal communities perceive climatic variation, sea level rise and coastal hazard impacts and the socio-economic factors that affect their level of awareness. Thus, this research measures the level of awareness and the factors influencing it based on a household survey (n = 1016) that was conducted 10 critically eroded coastal areas in Selangor. Descriptive statistical analysis reveals that more than half of the households have high level of awareness about climatic variation and sea level, however, there is moderate awareness about the coastal hazard impacts such as human causalities and disease transmission. Even though households are more aware of direct coastal hazard impact such as damages to properties and disruption of daily activities. An independent sample T test indicates that respondents who are male, at working age, educated, involve in natural resource dependent occupations, and had prior exposure to extreme coastal hazards have higher levels of awareness. Research indicated about 55% of all sampled households reflected awareness of climate change, 60% households were aware of sea level rise and 47% households were aware of coastal hazard impact. This study recommends that households in Selangor coast need capacity building and climate change awareness initiatives which would assist household to build adaptive capacity, increase resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35595816, year = {2022}, author = {Graham, LA and Gauthier, SY and Davies, PL}, title = {Origin of an antifreeze protein gene in response to Cenozoic climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {8536}, pmid = {35595816}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {FRN 148422//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Antifreeze Proteins/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/genetics/metabolism ; *Flounder/genetics/metabolism ; Freezing ; alpha-Fetoproteins ; }, abstract = {Antifreeze proteins (AFPs) inhibit ice growth within fish and protect them from freezing in icy seawater. Alanine-rich, alpha-helical AFPs (type I) have independently (convergently) evolved in four branches of fishes, one of which is a subsection of the righteye flounders. The origin of this gene family has been elucidated by sequencing two loci from a starry flounder, Platichthys stellatus, collected off Vancouver Island, British Columbia. The first locus had two alleles that demonstrated the plasticity of the AFP gene family, one encoding 33 AFPs and the other allele only four. In the closely related Pacific halibut, this locus encodes multiple Gig2 (antiviral) proteins, but in the starry flounder, the Gig2 genes were found at a second locus due to a lineage-specific duplication event. An ancestral Gig2 gave rise to a 3-kDa "skin" AFP isoform, encoding three Ala-rich 11-a.a. repeats, that is expressed in skin and other peripheral tissues. Subsequent gene duplications, followed by internal duplications of the 11 a.a. repeat and the gain of a signal sequence, gave rise to circulating AFP isoforms. One of these, the "hyperactive" 32-kDa Maxi likely underwent a contraction to a shorter 3.3-kDa "liver" isoform. Present day starry flounders found in Pacific Rim coastal waters from California to Alaska show a positive correlation between latitude and AFP gene dosage, with the shorter allele being more prevalent at lower latitudes. This study conclusively demonstrates that the flounder AFP arose from the Gig2 gene, so it is evolutionarily unrelated to the three other classes of type I AFPs from non-flounders. Additionally, this gene arose and underwent amplification coincident with the onset of ocean cooling during the Cenozoic ice ages.}, }
@article {pmid35595793, year = {2022}, author = {Ge, Q and Hao, M and Ding, F and Jiang, D and Scheffran, J and Helman, D and Ide, T}, title = {Modelling armed conflict risk under climate change with machine learning and time-series data.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {2839}, pmid = {35595793}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Armed Conflicts ; *Climate Change ; Machine Learning ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Understanding the risk of armed conflict is essential for promoting peace. Although the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict has been studied by the research community for decades with quantitative and qualitative methods at different spatial and temporal scales, causal linkages at a global scale remain poorly understood. Here we adopt a quantitative modelling framework based on machine learning to infer potential causal linkages from high-frequency time-series data and simulate the risk of armed conflict worldwide from 2000-2015. Our results reveal that the risk of armed conflict is primarily influenced by stable background contexts with complex patterns, followed by climate deviations related covariates. The inferred patterns show that positive temperature deviations or precipitation extremes are associated with increased risk of armed conflict worldwide. Our findings indicate that a better understanding of climate-conflict linkages at the global scale enhances the spatiotemporal modelling capacity for the risk of armed conflict.}, }
@article {pmid35594894, year = {2022}, author = {Greenfield, MH}, title = {An urgent need to reassess climate change and child labour in agriculture.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {e456-e457}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00118-8}, pmid = {35594894}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Child ; *Child Labor ; *Climate Change ; Food Supply ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35594277, year = {2022}, author = {Spanjer, AR and Gendaszek, AS and Wulfkuhle, EJ and Black, RW and Jaeger, KL}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on Pacific salmon and trout using bioenergetics and spatiotemporal explicit river temperature predictions under varying riparian conditions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {e0266871}, pmid = {35594277}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Energy Metabolism ; *Oncorhynchus ; *Rivers ; Salmon ; Temperature ; Trout ; }, abstract = {Pacific salmon and trout populations are affected by timber harvest, the removal and alteration of riparian vegetation, and the resulting physical changes to water quality, temperature, and associated delivery of high-quality terrestrial prey. Juvenile salmon and trout growth, a key predictor of survival, is poorly understood in the context of current and future (climate-change mediated) conditions, with resource managers needing information on how land use will impact future river conditions for these commercially and culturally important species. We used the Heat Source water temperature modeling framework to develop a spatiotemporal model to assess how riparian canopy and vegetation preservation and addition could influence river temperatures under future climate predictions in a coastal river fed by a moraine-dammed lake: the Quinault River in Washington State. The model predicted higher water temperatures under future carbon emission projections, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, with varying magnitude based on different riparian vegetation scenarios. We used the daily average temperature output from these scenarios to predict potential juvenile fish growth using the Wisconsin bioenergetics model. A combination of riparian vegetation removal and continued high carbon emissions resulted in a predicted seven-day average daily maximum temperature (7DADM) increase of 1.7°C in the lower river by 2080; increases in riparian shading mitigate this 7DADM increase to only 0.9°C. Under the current thermal regime, bioenergetics modeling predicts juvenile fish lose weight in the lower river; this loss of potential growth worsens by an average of 20-83% in the lower river by 2080, increasing with the loss of riparian shading. This study assess the impact of riparian vegetation management on future thermal habitat for Pacific salmon and trout under warming climates and provide a useful spatially explicit modeling framework that managers can use to make decisions regarding riparian vegetation management and its mechanistic impact to water temperature and rearing juvenile fish.}, }
@article {pmid35593317, year = {2022}, author = {Devlin, MJ}, title = {Coral reefs: The good and not so good news with future bright and dark spots for coral reefs through climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {15}, pages = {4506-4508}, pmid = {35593317}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Coral Reefs ; }, abstract = {COMMENTARY ON Present and future bright and dark spots for coral reefs through climate change. This is a commentary on Sully et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16083}, }
@article {pmid35592924, year = {2022}, author = {Cáceres, C and Leiva-Bianchi, M and Ormazábal, Y and Mena, C and Cantillana, JC}, title = {Post-traumatic stress in people from the interior drylands of the Maule region, Chile in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.4081/gh.2022.1045}, pmid = {35592924}, issn = {1970-7096}, mesh = {Chile/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Geographic Information Systems ; Humans ; Mental Health ; *Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/epidemiology/psychology ; }, abstract = {Progressive changes in local environmental scenarios, accelerated by global climate change, can negatively affect the mental health of people who inhabit these areas. The magnitude of these effects may vary depending on the socioeconomic conditions of people and the characteristics of the environment, so certain territories can be more vulnerable than others. In this context, the present study aimed to geographically analyse the levels of psychosocial impact and the types of disruptive responses related to the new territorial scenarios caused by climate change in the coastal drylands of the Maule region, Chile. For this purpose, 223 people from two communes (Curepto and Pencahue) were psychosocially evaluated for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) together with a survey of the prevailing sociodemographic and socioeconomic conditions in relation to the environmental variables of the territory. All information was georeferenced, stored within an ArcGIS Desktop geographic information system (GIS) and then investigated by application of contingency tables, ANOVA and local clustering analysis using SSP statistical software. The results indicated a high level of PTSD in the population, with significant differences related to age and education as well as employment conditions and income. The spatial results showed high PTSD values in the communal capital of Curepto in the central agricultural valley near the estuary of the local river, while the existence of coldspots was observed in the central valley of the Pencahue commune. It was concluded that proximity to population centres and surface water sources played the greatest role for the development of PTSD.}, }
@article {pmid35591511, year = {2022}, author = {Khan, K and Ishfaq, M and Amin, MN and Shahzada, K and Wahab, N and Faraz, MI}, title = {Evaluation of Mechanical and Microstructural Properties and Global Warming Potential of Green Concrete with Wheat Straw Ash and Silica Fume.}, journal = {Materials (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {35591511}, issn = {1996-1944}, support = {Deanship of Scientific Research, Vice Presidency for Graduate Studies and Scientific Research//King Faisal University/ ; }, abstract = {Cement and concrete are among the major contributors to CO2 emissions in modern society. Researchers have been investigating the possibility of replacing cement with industrial waste in concrete production to reduce its environmental impact. Therefore, the focus of this paper is on the effective use of wheat straw ash (WSA) together with silica fume (SF) as a cement substitute to produce high-performance and sustainable concrete. Different binary and ternary mixes containing WSA and SF were investigated for their mechanical and microstructural properties and global warming potential (GWP). The current results indicated that the binary and ternary mixes containing, respectively, 20% WSA (WSA20) and 33% WSA together with 7% SF (WSA33SF7) exhibited higher strengths than that of control mix and other binary and ternary mixes. The comparative lower apparent porosity and water absorption values of WSA20 and WSA33SF7 among all mixes also validated the findings of their higher strength results. Moreover, SEM-EDS and FTIR analyses has revealed the presence of dense and compact microstructure, which are mostly caused by formation of high-density calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H) and calcium hydroxide (C-H) phases in both blends. FTIR and TGA analyses also revealed a reduction in the portlandite phase in these mixes, causing densification of microstructures and pores. Additionally, N2 adsorption isotherm analysis demonstrates that the pore structure of these mixes has been densified as evidenced by a reduction in intruded volume and a rise in BET surface area. Furthermore, both mixes had lower CO2-eq intensity per MPa as compared to control, which indicates their significant impact on producing green concretes through their reduced GWPs. Thus, this research shows that WSA alone or its blend with SF can be considered as a source of revenue for the concrete industry for developing high-performance and sustainable concretes.}, }
@article {pmid35590158, year = {2021}, author = {Bernstein, AS}, title = {The medical response to climate change.}, journal = {Med (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {361-365}, doi = {10.1016/j.medj.2021.03.012}, pmid = {35590158}, issn = {2666-6340}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Atmosphere ; Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The growing mass of colorless and odorless greenhouse gases high in earth's atmosphere may be about as far away from a hospital bedside or clinic exam room as any concern imaginable. Despite this, the challenges of climate change have progressively moved nearer to the work of all those in health care. From sinister storms, fires, and heat waves that imperil our patients, facilities, and supplies to the outsized contribution of medical care to air pollution, the motivations and needs for a medical response to climate change are many and clear.}, }
@article {pmid35588839, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, X and Hao, Z and Singh, VP and Zhang, Y and Feng, S and Xu, Y and Hao, F}, title = {Drought propagation under global warming: Characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {838}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {156021}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156021}, pmid = {35588839}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Droughts ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Hydrology ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Drought is a costly natural hazard with far-reaching impacts on agriculture, ecosystem, water supply, and socio-economy. While propagating through the water cycle, drought evolves into different types and affects the natural system and human society. Despite much progress made in recent decades, a synthesis of the characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors of drought propagation is still lacking. We bridge this gap by reviewing the recent progress of drought propagation and discussing challenges and future directions. We first introduce drought propagation characteristics (e.g., response time scale, lag time), followed by different approaches, including statistical analysis and hydrological modeling. The recent progress in the propagation from meteorological drought to different types of drought (agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and ecological drought) is then synthesized, including the basic process, commonly used indicators, data sources, and main findings of drought propagation characteristics. Different controlling factors of drought propagations, including climate (e.g., aridity, seasonality, and anomalies of meteorological variables), catchment properties (e.g., slope, elevation, land cover, aquifer, baseflow), and human activities (e.g., reservoir operation and water diversion, irrigation, and groundwater abstraction), are then summarized. Challenges in drought propagation include the discrepancy in drought indicators (and approaches) and difficulty in characterizing the full propagation process and isolating influencing factors. Future analysis of drought propagation should shift from single indicators to multiple indicators, from individual drivers to combined drivers, from uni-directional analysis to feedbacks, from hazards to impacts, and from stationary to nonstationary assumptions. This review is expected to be useful for drought prediction and management across different regions under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid35587891, year = {2022}, author = {Bingley, WJ and Tran, A and Boyd, CP and Gibson, K and Kalokerinos, EK and Koval, P and Kashima, Y and McDonald, D and Greenaway, KH}, title = {A multiple needs framework for climate change anxiety interventions.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {77}, number = {7}, pages = {812-821}, doi = {10.1037/amp0001012}, pmid = {35587891}, issn = {1935-990X}, support = {//University of Melbourne; Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; *Anxiety/therapy ; Anxiety Disorders ; Emotions ; }, abstract = {Climate change anxiety is a growing problem for individual well-being the world over. However, psychological interventions to address climate change anxiety may have unintended effects on outcomes other than individual well-being, such as group cohesion and pro-environmental behavior. In order to address these complexities, we outline a multiple needs framework of climate change anxiety interventions, which can be used to analyze interventions in terms of their effects on individual, social, and environmental outcomes. We use this framework to contextualize a systematic review of the literature detailing the effects of climate change anxiety interventions. This analysis identifies interventions centered around problem-focused action, emotion management, and enhancing social connections as those which have beneficial effects on the widest range of outcomes. It also identifies interventions that may have detrimental effects on one or more outcomes. We identify gaps where more research is required, including research that assesses the effects of climate change anxiety interventions on individual, social, and environmental outcomes in concert. An interactive website summarizes these insights and presents the results of the systematic review in a way that is, accessible to a range of stakeholders. The multiple needs framework provides a way to conceptualize the effectiveness of climate change anxiety interventions beyond their impact on individual well-being, contributing to a more holistic understanding of the effects of this global phenomenon. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).}, }
@article {pmid35586255, year = {2022}, author = {Rehák, I and Fischer, D and Kratochvíl, L and Rovatsos, M}, title = {Origin and haplotype diversity of the northernmost population of Podarcistauricus (Squamata, Lacertidae): Do lizards respond to climate change and go north?.}, journal = {Biodiversity data journal}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e82156}, pmid = {35586255}, issn = {1314-2828}, abstract = {The northernmost population of the Balkan wall lizards, Podarcistauricus (Pallas, 1814) was recently discovered in the Czech Republic. We studied genetic variability in a mitochondrial marker cytochrome b to shed light on the origin of this remote population. We detected three unique haplotypes, close to those occurring in the populations of Podarcistauricus from central/north Balkans and Hungary. Our data exclude the hypothesis of a single founder (a randomly or intentionally introduced pregnant female or her progeny) of the Czech population and indicate a native, autochthonous origin of the population or recent introduction/range expansion.}, }
@article {pmid35585461, year = {2022}, author = {Pickson, RB and Gui, P and Chen, A and Boateng, E}, title = {Empirical analysis of rice and maize production under climate change in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {46}, pages = {70242-70261}, pmid = {35585461}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Oryza ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {The past few decades of extreme drought and flooding caused by changing climate conditions have significantly affected agricultural production globally. This study focuses on two vital crops in China-maize and rice-and provides a comprehensive analysis of how these crops are affected by climate change-induced factors over the periods 1978Q1-2015Q4. Four key findings were obtained. First, using a nonparametric approach to estimate actual and observed trends of climatic variables, the results show a significant positive trend in average temperature from February to October. On the other hand, seasonal temperature increases during spring, summer, and autumn. Second, the results show no significant change in the monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall patterns when examined over the study period. Third, using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we find that while temperature and rainfall do not significantly support rice production in the long and short run, they play a substantial role in maize production in China. Finally, we find no significant difference in the results for rice when the quantile regression (QR) technique that controls for distributional asymmetry effects is employed. However, the impact of temperature on maize decreases at higher quantiles. Given the outcomes of our study, we argue that an advanced irrigation system is crucial and must be encouraged to minimize the effects of climate change on crop production.}, }
@article {pmid35585385, year = {2022}, author = {Semenza, JC and Rocklöv, J and Ebi, KL}, title = {Climate Change and Cascading Risks from Infectious Disease.}, journal = {Infectious diseases and therapy}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {1371-1390}, pmid = {35585385}, issn = {2193-8229}, abstract = {Climate change is adversely affecting the burden of infectious disease throughout the world, which is a health security threat. Climate-sensitive infectious disease includes vector-borne diseases such as malaria, whose transmission potential is expected to increase because of enhanced climatic suitability for the mosquito vector in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Climatic suitability for the mosquitoes that can carry dengue, Zika, and chikungunya is also likely to increase, facilitating further increases in the geographic range and longer transmission seasons, and raising concern for expansion of these diseases into temperate zones, particularly under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Early spring temperatures in 2018 seem to have contributed to the early onset and extensive West Nile virus outbreak in Europe, a pathogen expected to expand further beyond its current distribution, due to a warming climate. As for tick-borne diseases, climate change is projected to continue to contribute to the spread of Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis, particularly in North America and Europe. Schistosomiasis is a water-borne disease and public health concern in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia; climate change is anticipated to change its distribution, with both expansions and contractions expected. Other water-borne diseases that cause diarrheal diseases have declined significantly over the last decades owing to socioeconomic development and public health measures but changes in climate can reverse some of these positive developments. Weather and climate events, population movement, land use changes, urbanization, global trade, and other drivers can catalyze a succession of secondary events that can lead to a range of health impacts, including infectious disease outbreaks. These cascading risk pathways of causally connected events can result in large-scale outbreaks and affect society at large. We review climatic and other cascading drivers of infectious disease with projections under different climate change scenarios. Supplementary file1 (MP4 328467 KB).}, }
@article {pmid35585266, year = {2022}, author = {Nogrady, B}, title = {Trees are dying much faster in northern Australia - climate change is probably to blame.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {35585266}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid35584756, year = {2022}, author = {Mao, F and Du, H and Zhou, G and Zheng, J and Li, X and Xu, Y and Huang, Z and Yin, S}, title = {Simulated net ecosystem productivity of subtropical forests and its response to climate change in Zhejiang Province, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {838}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {155993}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155993}, pmid = {35584756}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; }, abstract = {Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is an important index that indicates the carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystems. However, the effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal variability in NEP is still unclear. Using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon-budget (InTEC) model, this study takes the typical subtropical forests in the Zhejiang Province, China as an example, simulated the spatiotemporal patterns of forest NEP from 1979 to 2079 based on historically observed climate data (1979-2015) and data from three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We analyzed the responses of NEP at different forest age classes to the variation in meteorological factors. The NEP of Zhejiang's forests decreased from 1979 to 1985 and then increased from 1985 to 2015, with an annual increase rate of 9.66 g C·m[-2]·yr[-1] and a cumulative NEP of 364.99 Tg·C. Forest NEP decreased from 2016 to 2079; however, the cumulative NEP continued to increase. The simulated cumulative NEP under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios was 750 Tg·C, 866 Tg·C, and 958 Tg·C, respectively, at the end of 2079. Partial correlation analysis between forest NEP at different age stages and meteorological factors showed that temperature is the key climatic factor that affects the carbon sequestration capacity of juvenile forests (1979-1999), while precipitation is the key climatic factor that affects middle-aged forests (2000-2015) and mature forests (2016-2079). Adopting appropriate management strategies for forests, such as selective cutting of different ages, is critical for the subtropical forests to adapt to climate change and maintain their high carbon sink capacity.}, }
@article {pmid35584021, year = {2022}, author = {Aylward, B and Cunsolo, A and Vriezen, R and Harper, SL}, title = {Climate change is impacting mental health in North America: A systematic scoping review of the hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, risks and responses.}, journal = {International review of psychiatry (Abingdon, England)}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {34-50}, doi = {10.1080/09540261.2022.2029368}, pmid = {35584021}, issn = {1369-1627}, support = {//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Mexico ; North America ; }, abstract = {As climate change progresses, it is crucial that researchers and policymakers understand the ways in which climate-mental health risks arise through interactions between climate hazards, human exposure and social vulnerabilities across time and location. This scoping review systematically examined the nature, range and extent of published research in North America that investigates climate-mental health interactions. Five electronic databases were searched and two independent reviewers applied pre-determined criteria to assess the eligibility of articles identified in the search. Eighty-nine articles were determined to be relevant and underwent data extraction and analysis. The published literature reported on numerous exposure pathways through which acute and chronic climate hazards interacted with social vulnerabilities to increase mental health risks, including wellbeing, trauma, anxiety, depression, suicide and substance use. This review also highlights important gaps within the North American climate-mental health evidence base, including minimal research conducted in Mexico, as well as a lack of studies investigating climate-mental health adaptation strategies and projected future mental health risks. Further research should support effective preparation for and adaptation to the current and future mental health impacts of climate change. Such strategies could reduce health risks and the long-term mental health impacts that individuals and communities experience in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid35582318, year = {2022}, author = {Belova, A and Gould, CA and Munson, K and Howell, M and Trevisan, C and Obradovich, N and Martinich, J}, title = {Projecting the Suicide Burden of Climate Change in the United States.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {5}, pages = {e2021GH000580}, pmid = {35582318}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {We quantify and monetize changes in suicide incidence across the conterminous United States (U.S.) in response to increasing levels of warming. We develop an integrated health impact assessment model using binned and linear specifications of temperature-suicide relationship estimates from Mullins and White (2019), in combination with monthly age- and sex-specific baseline suicide incidence rates, projections of six climate models, and population projections at the conterminous U.S. county scale. We evaluate the difference in the annual number of suicides in the U.S. corresponding to 1-6°C of warming compared to 1986-2005 average temperatures (mean U.S. temperatures) and compute 2015 population attributable fractions (PAFs). We use the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Value of a Statistical Life to estimate the economic value of avoiding these mortality impacts. Assuming the 2015 population size, warming of 1-6°C could result in an annual increase of 283-1,660 additional suicide cases, corresponding to a PAF of 0.7%-4.1%. The annual economic value of avoiding these impacts is $2 billion-$3 billion (2015 U.S. dollars, 3% discount rate, and 2015 income level). Estimates based on linear temperature-suicide relationship specifications are 7% larger than those based on binned temperature specifications. Accounting for displacement decreases estimates by 17%, while accounting for precipitation decreases estimates by 7%. Population growth between 2015 and the future warming degree arrival year increases estimates by 15%-38%. Further research is needed to quantify and monetize other climate-related mental health outcomes (e.g., anxiety and depression) and to characterize these risks in socially vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid35581288, year = {2022}, author = {Klápště, J and Telfer, EJ and Dungey, HS and Graham, NJ}, title = {Chasing genetic correlation breakers to stimulate population resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {8238}, pmid = {35581288}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Linkage Disequilibrium ; Phenotype ; *Pinus/genetics ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Quantitative Trait Loci ; Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Global climate change introduces new combinations of environmental conditions, which is expected to increase stress on plants. This could affect many traits in multiple ways that are as yet unknown but will likely require the modification of existing genetic relationships among functional traits potentially involved in local adaptation. Theoretical evolutionary studies have determined that it is an advantage to have an excess of recombination events under heterogeneous environmental conditions. Our study, conducted on a population of radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don), was able to identify individuals that show high genetic recombination at genomic regions, which potentially include pleiotropic or collocating QTLs responsible for the studied traits, reaching a prediction accuracy of 0.80 in random cross-validation and 0.72 when whole family was removed from the training population and predicted. To identify these highly recombined individuals, a training population was constructed from correlation breakers, created through tandem selection of parents in the previous generation and their consequent mating. Although the correlation breakers showed lower observed heterogeneity possibly due to direct selection in both studied traits, the genomic regions with statistically significant differences in the linkage disequilibrium pattern showed higher level of heretozygosity, which has the effect of decomposing unfavourable genetic correlation. We propose undertaking selection of correlation breakers under current environmental conditions and using genomic predictions to increase the frequency of these 'recombined' individuals in future plantations, ensuring the resilience of planted forests to changing climates. The increased frequency of such individuals will decrease the strength of the population-level genetic correlations among traits, increasing the opportunity for new trait combinations to be developed in the future.}, }
@article {pmid35581261, year = {2022}, author = {Hoylman, ZH and Bocinsky, RK and Jencso, KG}, title = {Drought assessment has been outpaced by climate change: empirical arguments for a paradigm shift.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {2715}, pmid = {35581261}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; }, abstract = {Despite the acceleration of climate change, erroneous assumptions of climate stationarity are still inculcated in the management of water resources in the United States (US). The US system for drought detection, which triggers billions of dollars in emergency resources, adheres to this assumption with preference towards 60-year (or longer) record lengths for drought characterization. Using observed data from 1,934 Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) sites across the US, we show that conclusions based on long climate records can substantially bias assessment of drought severity. Bias emerges by assuming that conditions from the early and mid 20th century are as likely to occur in today's climate. Numerical simulations reveal that drought assessment error is relatively low with limited climatology lengths (~30 year) and that error increases with longer record lengths where climate is changing rapidly. We assert that non-stationarity in climate must be accounted for in contemporary assessments to more accurately portray present drought risk.}, }
@article {pmid35577983, year = {2022}, author = {Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J and Berenguer, E and Oliveras Menor, I and Bauman, D and Corral-Rivas, JJ and Nava-Miranda, MG and Both, S and Ndong, JE and Ondo, FE and Bengone, NN and Mihinhou, V and Dalling, JW and Heineman, K and Figueiredo, A and González-M, R and Norden, N and Hurtado-M, AB and González, D and Salgado-Negret, B and Reis, SM and Moraes de Seixas, MM and Farfan-Rios, W and Shenkin, A and Riutta, T and Girardin, CAJ and Moore, S and Abernethy, K and Asner, GP and Bentley, LP and Burslem, DFRP and Cernusak, LA and Enquist, BJ and Ewers, RM and Ferreira, J and Jeffery, KJ and Joly, CA and Marimon-Junior, BH and Martin, RE and Morandi, PS and Phillips, OL and Bennett, AC and Lewis, SL and Quesada, CA and Marimon, BS and Kissling, WD and Silman, M and Teh, YA and White, LJT and Salinas, N and Coomes, DA and Barlow, J and Adu-Bredu, S and Malhi, Y}, title = {Functional susceptibility of tropical forests to climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {7}, pages = {878-889}, pmid = {35577983}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Trees ; Water ; }, abstract = {Tropical forests are some of the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world, yet their functioning is threatened by anthropogenic disturbances and climate change. Global actions to conserve tropical forests could be enhanced by having local knowledge on the forests' functional diversity and functional redundancy as proxies for their capacity to respond to global environmental change. Here we create estimates of plant functional diversity and redundancy across the tropics by combining a dataset of 16 morphological, chemical and photosynthetic plant traits sampled from 2,461 individual trees from 74 sites distributed across four continents together with local climate data for the past half century. Our findings suggest a strong link between climate and functional diversity and redundancy with the three trait groups responding similarly across the tropics and climate gradient. We show that drier tropical forests are overall less functionally diverse than wetter forests and that functional redundancy declines with increasing soil water and vapour pressure deficits. Areas with high functional diversity and high functional redundancy tend to better maintain ecosystem functioning, such as aboveground biomass, after extreme weather events. Our predictions suggest that the lower functional diversity and lower functional redundancy of drier tropical forests, in comparison with wetter forests, may leave them more at risk of shifting towards alternative states in face of further declines in water availability across tropical regions.}, }
@article {pmid35577086, year = {2022}, author = {Eingrüber, N and Korres, W}, title = {Climate change simulation and trend analysis of extreme precipitation and floods in the mesoscale Rur catchment in western Germany until 2099 using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and the Soil &amp; Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {838}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {155775}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155775}, pmid = {35577086}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Floods ; Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; Soil ; Water ; }, abstract = {Due to climate change and global warming, speed and intensity of the hydrological cycle will accelerate. In order to carry out regional risk assessment, integrated water resources management and flood protection, far reaching predictions and future scenarios of climate change effects on extreme precipitation and flooding are of particular relevance. In this study, trends in frequencies of extreme precipitation and floods until 2099 are analysed for the German Rur catchment, which is half located in highlands and half in lowlands and therefore has a high topographical and climatological contrast. To predict future trends, coupled modeling is performed based on NCEP reanalysis data and a General Circulation Model (GCM). Assuming HadCM3 future emission scenarios A2a and B2a, an empirical Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is developed and daily precipitation amounts are projected until 2099 by a stochastic weather generator. The generated precipitation data are used as an input for the ecohydrological Soil &amp; Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model) to simulate daily water discharge until 2099. Statistical trend analyses are implemented based on three annual extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and the magnitudes of ten flood return periods derived with GEV and Gumbel extreme value distributions for 109 30-year moving periods using regression analyses and Mann-Kendall tendency tests to check for significant trends in the frequencies until 2099. As a result, it could be demonstrated for all EPIs that the frequency of extreme precipitation in the upper Rur catchment will significantly increase by +33% to +51% until 2099 compared to the base period 1961-1990, whereas mostly non-significant negative trends of extreme precipitation can be projected in the lowlands. For runoff, it was found that the magnitudes of the ten flood return periods will significantly increase by +31% for B2a to +36% for A2a until 2099 compared to the base period.}, }
@article {pmid35574993, year = {2022}, author = {Roggatz, CC and Saha, M and Blanchard, S and Schirrmacher, P and Fink, P and Verheggen, F and Hardege, JD}, title = {Becoming nose-blind-Climate change impacts on chemical communication.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {15}, pages = {4495-4505}, pmid = {35574993}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; }, abstract = {Chemical communication via infochemicals plays a pivotal role in ecological interactions, allowing organisms to sense their environment, locate predators, food, habitats, or mates. A growing number of studies suggest that climate change-associated stressors can modify these chemically mediated interactions, causing info-disruption that scales up to the ecosystem level. However, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms is scarce. Evidenced by a range of examples, we illustrate in this opinion piece that climate change affects different realms in similar patterns, from molecular to ecosystem-wide levels. We assess the importance of different stressors for terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems and propose a systematic approach to address highlighted knowledge gaps and cross-disciplinary research avenues.}, }
@article {pmid35574854, year = {2022}, author = {Schmidt, DN and Pieraccini, M and Evans, L}, title = {Marine protected areas in the context of climate change: key challenges for coastal social-ecological systems.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {377}, number = {1854}, pages = {20210131}, pmid = {35574854}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate and ecological emergencies play out acutely in coastal systems with devastating impacts on biodiversity, and the livelihoods of communities and their cultural values. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are one of the key management and regulatory tools against biodiversity loss, playing a role in strengthening bio-cultural diversity and sustainability of coastal social-ecological systems. What is unclear though is the effectiveness of static protections under climate change as species move. Next to ecological uncertainty, regulatory uncertainty may play a role in weakening marine conservation. We asked whether MPAs are ecologically effective now and can sustain or improve to be so in the future while facing key climate and regulatory uncertainties. MPAs can support the protection of cultural values and have an impact on activities of sea-users and the sustainability of social-ecological systems. As such, questions surrounding their legitimacy under a changing climate and increased uncertainty are pertinent. We argue that MPA governance must be cognisant of the interdependency between natural and human systems and their joint reaction to climate change impacts based on an integrated, co-developed, and interdisciplinary approach. Focusing on the UK as a case study, we highlight some of the challenges to achieve effective, adaptive and legitimate governance of MPAs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems'.}, }
@article {pmid35574848, year = {2022}, author = {Kebke, A and Samarra, F and Derous, D}, title = {Climate change and cetacean health: impacts and future directions.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {377}, number = {1854}, pages = {20210249}, pmid = {35574848}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Caniformia ; Cetacea ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change directly impacts the foraging opportunities of cetaceans (e.g. lower prey availability), leads to habitat loss, and forces cetaceans to move to other feeding grounds. The rise in ocean temperature, low prey availability and loss of habitat can have severe consequences for cetacean survival, particularly those species that are already threatened or those with a limited habitat range. In addition, it is predicted that the concentration of contaminants in aquatic environments will increase owing to Arctic meltwater and increased rainfall events leading to higher rates of land-based runoff in downstream coastal areas. These persistent and mobile contaminants can bioaccumulate in the ecosystem, and lead to ecotoxicity with potentially severe consequences on the reproductive organs, immune system and metabolism of marine mammals. There is a need to measure and assess the cumulative impact of multiple stressors, given that climate change, habitat alteration, low prey availability and contaminants do not act in isolation. Human-caused perturbations to cetacean foraging abilities are becoming a pervasive and prevalent threat to many cetacean species on top of climate change-associated stressors. We need to move to a greater understanding of how multiple stressors impact the metabolism of cetaceans and ultimately their population trajectory. This article is part of the theme issue 'Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems'.}, }
@article {pmid35574134, year = {2022}, author = {Elli, EF and Ciampitti, IA and Castellano, MJ and Purcell, LC and Naeve, S and Grassini, P and La Menza, NC and Moro Rosso, L and de Borja Reis, AF and Kovács, P and Archontoulis, SV}, title = {Climate Change and Management Impacts on Soybean N Fixation, Soil N Mineralization, N2O Emissions, and Seed Yield.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {849896}, pmid = {35574134}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Limited knowledge about how nitrogen (N) dynamics are affected by climate change, weather variability, and crop management is a major barrier to improving the productivity and environmental performance of soybean-based cropping systems. To fill this knowledge gap, we created a systems understanding of agroecosystem N dynamics and quantified the impact of controllable (management) and uncontrollable (weather, climate) factors on N fluxes and soybean yields. We performed a simulation experiment across 10 soybean production environments in the United States using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model and future climate projections from five global circulation models. Climate change (2020-2080) increased N mineralization (24%) and N2O emissions (19%) but decreased N fixation (32%), seed N (20%), and yields (19%). Soil and crop management practices altered N fluxes at a similar magnitude as climate change but in many different directions, revealing opportunities to improve soybean systems' performance. Among many practices explored, we identified two solutions with great potential: improved residue management (short-term) and water management (long-term). Inter-annual weather variability and management practices affected soybean yield less than N fluxes, which creates opportunities to manage N fluxes without compromising yields, especially in regions with adequate to excess soil moisture. This work provides actionable results (tradeoffs, synergies, directions) to inform decision-making for adapting crop management in a changing climate to improve soybean production systems.}, }
@article {pmid35574091, year = {2022}, author = {Burridge, JD and Grondin, A and Vadez, V}, title = {Optimizing Crop Water Use for Drought and Climate Change Adaptation Requires a Multi-Scale Approach.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {824720}, pmid = {35574091}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Selection criteria that co-optimize water use efficiency and yield are needed to promote plant productivity in increasingly challenging and variable drought scenarios, particularly dryland cereals in the semi-arid tropics. Optimizing water use efficiency and yield fundamentally involves transpiration dynamics, where restriction of maximum transpiration rate helps to avoid early crop failure, while maximizing grain filling. Transpiration restriction can be regulated by multiple mechanisms and involves cross-organ coordination. This coordination involves complex feedbacks and feedforwards over time scales ranging from minutes to weeks, and from spatial scales ranging from cell membrane to crop canopy. Aquaporins have direct effect but various compensation and coordination pathways involve phenology, relative root and shoot growth, shoot architecture, root length distribution profile, as well as other architectural and anatomical aspects of plant form and function. We propose gravimetric phenotyping as an integrative, cross-scale solution to understand the dynamic, interwoven, and context-dependent coordination of transpiration regulation. The most fruitful breeding strategy is likely to be that which maintains focus on the phene of interest, namely, daily and season level transpiration dynamics. This direct selection approach is more precise than yield-based selection but sufficiently integrative to capture attenuating and complementary factors.}, }
@article {pmid35571150, year = {2022}, author = {Crameri, NJ and Ellison, JC}, title = {Atoll inland and coastal mangrove climate change vulnerability assessment.}, journal = {Wetlands ecology and management}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {527-546}, pmid = {35571150}, issn = {0923-4861}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change threatens global mangroves, which are already among the world's most impacted ecosystems. Vulnerability components of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were evaluated on mangroves of atoll settings on Jaluit Atoll, in the Marshall Islands, assessing spatial changes of mangrove cover 1945-2018/19, sea-level trends 1968-2019, and reviewing available information. Inland mangrove depressions occur on Jaluit, as well as coastal lagoon margin mangroves, and both were assessed using the same methods. Spatial analysis results showed both inland and coastal mangroves have increased in area. Inland mangroves on eight of Jaluit's islands mostly expanded after 1976 from 40 to 50 hectares, with progradation and tidal creek infill closing lagoon connections. Shoreline mangroves showed 88-100% of transects prograding 0.1-0.51 m year[-1] and 0-11.5% of transects eroding 0-0.18 m year[-1]. Assessment of a combination of aerial/satellite images, literature and on-the-ground photos indicated that the mangroves are in healthy condition. Vulnerability assessment results showed both inland and coastal mangroves to have similar strengths and weaknesses in resilience, with intrinsic areas of vulnerability persisting during increased future sea level rise, limited sediment supply and extremely low elevations.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11273-022-09878-0.}, }
@article {pmid35567412, year = {2022}, author = {de Olanda Souza, GH and de Oliveira Aparecido, LE and de Lima, RF and Torsoni, GB and Chiquitto, AG and de Moraes, JRC}, title = {Agroclimatic zoning for bananas under climate change in Brazil.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {102}, number = {14}, pages = {6511-6529}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.12018}, pmid = {35567412}, issn = {1097-0010}, mesh = {Brazil ; Clay ; *Climate Change ; *Musa ; Soil ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses in plants and affects yield. Therefore, we sought to carry out a study on future changes in the agroclimatic conditions of banana cultivation in Brazil. The current agroclimatic zoning was carried out with data obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology related to mean air temperature, annual rainfall, and soil texture data in Brazil. The global climate model BCC-CSM1.1 (Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model, version 1.1), adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, corresponding to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for the period 2050 (2041-2060) and 2070 (2061-2080), obtained through the CHELSA V1.2 platform, was chosen for the climate projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Matrix images at a depth of 5-15 cm, obtained through the product of the SoilGrids system, were used for the texture data. ArcGIS version 10.8 was used to construct the maps.<br><br>RESULTS: Areas favorable to the crop plantation were classified as suitable when air temperature TAIR was between 20 and 29&#x2009;&#xb0;C, annual rainfall RANNUAL between 1200 and 1900&#x2009;mm, and soil clay content CSOIL between 30 and 55%. Subsequently, the information was reclassified, summarizing the classes into preferential, recommended, little recommended, and not recommended. The current scenario shows a preferential class of 8.1%, recommended of 44.6%, little recommended of 47.1%, and not recommended of 0.1% for the Brazilian territory.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results show no drastic changes in the total area regarding the classes, but there is a migration from these zones; that is, from tropical to subtropical and temperate regions. RCP 8.5-2070 (2061-2080) showed trends with negative impacts on arable areas for banana cultivation at the end of the century. &#xa9; 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid35567180, year = {2022}, author = {Ishtiaq, M and Maqbool, M and Muzamil, M and Casini, R and Alataway, A and Dewidar, AZ and El-Sabrout, AM and Elansary, HO}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {35567180}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {//Vice Deanship of Research Chairs at King Saud University/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is a global threat to the agricultural system. Changing climatic conditions are causing variations in temperature range, rainfall timing, humidity percentage, soil structure, and composition of gases in environment. All these factors have a great influence on the phenological events in plants' life cycle. Alternation in phenological events, especially in crops, leads to either lower yield or crop failure. In light of respective statement, the present study is designed to evaluate the climatic impacts on two heat-resistant wheat varieties (Sialkot-2008 and Punjab-2018). During the study, impacts of CC on wheat phenology and annual yield were predicted considering six climatic factors: maximum temp, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil moisture content, and solar radiation using two quantitative approaches. First, a two-year field experimental plot was set up at five different sites of study-each plot a bisect of two sites. Phenological changes of both varieties were monitored with respect to climatic factors and changes were recorded in a scientific manner. Secondly, experimental results were compared with Global climate models (GMC) models with a baseline range of the past 40 years (1970-2010) and future fifty years (2019-2068) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 model analysis. Field experiment showed a (0.02) difference in maximum temperature, (0.04) in minimum temperature, (0.17) in humidity, and about (0.03) significant difference in soil moisture content during 2019-2021. Under these changing climatic parameters, a 0.21% difference was accounted in annual yield. Furthermore, the results were supported by GMC model analysis, which was analyzed by Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Results depicted that non-heat-resistant wheat varieties could cause up to a 6~13% reduction in yield during future 50 years (2019-2068)) compared with the last 40 years (1970-2010). A larger decline in wheat grain number relative to grain weight is a key reducer of wheat yield, under future climate change circumstances. Using heat-tolerant wheat varieties will not only assist to overcome this plethora but also provide a potential increase of up to 7% to 10% in indigenous environment. On the other hand, it was concluded that cultivating these heat-resistant varieties that are also ripening late culminates into enhanced thermal time chucks during the grain-filling period; hence, wheat yield will increase by 8% to 12%. In changing climatic conditions and varieties, 'Punjab-2018' will be the better choice for peasants and farm-land owners to obtain a better yield of wheat to cope with the necessities of food on the domestic and national level.}, }
@article {pmid35565106, year = {2022}, author = {Song, C and Huang, X and Les, O and Ma, H and Liu, R}, title = {The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Wheat and Maize Yields in the North China Plain.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {35565106}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Triticum ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Climate change has significantly affected agricultural production. As one of China's most important agricultural production regions, the North China Plain (NCP) is subject to climate change. This paper examines the influence of climate change on the wheat and maize yields at household and village levels, using the multilevel model based on a large panel survey dataset in the NCP. The results show that: (i) Extreme weather events (drought and flood) would significantly reduce the wheat and maize yields. So, the governments should establish and improve the emergency service system of disaster warning and encourage farmers to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters. (ii) Over the past three decades, the NCP has experienced climate change that affects its grain production. Therefore, it is imperative to build the farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change. (iii) Spatial variations in crop yield are significantly influenced by the household characteristics and the heterogeneity of village economic conditions. Therefore, in addition to promoting household production, it is necessary to strengthen and promote China's development of the rural collective economy, especially the construction of rural irrigation and drainage infrastructures.}, }
@article {pmid35564881, year = {2022}, author = {Sibitane, ZE and Dube, K and Lekaota, L}, title = {Global Warming and Its Implications on Nature Tourism at Phinda Private Game Reserve, South Africa.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {35564881}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; South Africa ; *Tourism ; }, abstract = {The past decade recorded the highest number of high impact extreme weather events such as flooding, rainfall events, fires, droughts, and heatwaves amongst others. One of the key features and drivers of extreme weather events has been global warming, with record temperatures recorded globally. The World Meteorological Organization indicated that the 2010-2020 decade was one of the warmest on record. Continued global warming triggers a chain of positive feedback with far-reaching adverse implications on the environment and socio-economic activities. The tourism industry fears that increased global warming would result in severe challenges for the sector. The challenges include species extinction, disruption of tourism aviation, and several tourism activities. Given the extent of climate variability and change, this study examines the impacts of rising temperatures on tourism operations at Phinda Private Game Reserve in South Africa. The study adopts a mixed-method approach that uses secondary, archival, and primary data collected through interviews and field observations to investigate the impacts. Data analysis was done using XLSTAT and Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis to analyse climate trends, while content and thematic analyses were used to analyse primary data findings. The study found that increasing temperature is challenging for tourists and tourism employees as it affects productivity, sleeping patterns, tourism operations, and infrastructure. High temperatures are a considerable threat to water availability and animal sightings, adversely affecting the game drive experience. Increased heatwaves resulted in bird mortality and hatching mortality for turtles; this is a significant conservation challenge. The study recommends that heat stress be treated as a health and safety issue to protect tourists and employees.}, }
@article {pmid35564783, year = {2022}, author = {Wewerinke-Singh, M and Doebbler, C}, title = {Protecting Human Health from Climate Change: Legal Obligations and Avenues of Redress under International Law.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {35564783}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Human Rights ; Humans ; *International Law ; }, abstract = {In this contribution, we explore how human health can be protected from climate change and its adverse effects by reliance on States' obligations under international law. We achieved this by reviewing the principal legal instruments that establish the right to health, as well as those that recognize that climate change has an adverse impact on health (Part II). We then examine the means of redress that may be available to those whose human right to health has been interfered with or violated because of climate change (Part III). Finally, we draw some conclusions as to the current effectiveness and future direction of these developments.}, }
@article {pmid35564601, year = {2022}, author = {Huang, J and Yang, JZ and Chu, H}, title = {Framing Climate Change Impacts as Moral Violations: The Pathway of Perceived Message Credibility.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {35564601}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Morals ; Persuasive Communication ; Policy ; Students ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been increasingly discussed in moral terms in public discourse. Despite the growing body of research on the effectiveness of moral frames in bridging the ideological divide, few studies have examined the role that perceived credibility, an important element of any persuasive appeal, plays in facilitating the framing effect. With the objective of further understanding how moral frames may engage individuals with different ideologies in climate change and refining climate change messaging strategies, two experimental surveys were conducted to examine the effects of moral violation frames on climate engagement. Specifically, a moderated mediation model was tested. The model posits that message credibility mediates the relationship between moral frames and policy support, as well as the relationship between moral frames and behavior intention. Moreover, political ideology moderated the indirect effects of message credibility. Based on moral foundations theory, seven messages were designed to activate individualizing and binding moral foundations. The results indicated that credibility consistently mediated the effects of the moral violation frame on climate engagement and that liberal-leaning individuals were more likely to perceive an individualizing frame as more credible than a binding frame. However, this difference was smaller among conservative-leaning individuals, with evidence for this moderated mediation model found only for policy support among college students. This study suggests that credibility is key for effective moral violations arguments of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35564506, year = {2022}, author = {Lim, NO and Hwang, J and Lee, SJ and Yoo, Y and Choi, Y and Jeon, S}, title = {Spatialization and Prediction of Seasonal NO2 Pollution Due to Climate Change in the Korean Capital Area through Land Use Regression Modeling.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {35564506}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Nitrogen Dioxide/analysis ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Urbanization is causing an increase in air pollution leading to serious health issues. However, even though the necessity of its regulation is acknowledged, there are relatively few monitoring sites in the capital metropolitan city of the Republic of Korea. Furthermore, a significant relationship between air pollution and climate variables is expected, thus the prediction of air pollution under climate change should be carefully attended. This study aims to predict and spatialize present and future NO2 distribution by using existing monitoring sites to overcome deficiency in monitoring. Prediction was conducted through seasonal Land use regression modeling using variables correlated with NO2 concentration. Variables were selected through two correlation analyses and future pollution was predicted under HadGEM-AO RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. Our results showed a relatively high NO2 concentration in winter in both present and future predictions, resulting from elevated use of fossil fuels in boilers, and also showed increments of NO2 pollution due to climate change. The results of this study could strengthen existing air pollution management strategies and mitigation measures for planning concerning future climate change, supporting proper management and control of air pollution.}, }
@article {pmid35562755, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, X and Juma, S and Li, W and Suleman, M and Muhsin, MA and He, J and He, M and Xu, D and Zhang, J and Bergquist, R and Yang, K}, title = {Potential risk of colonization of Bulinus globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {52}, pmid = {35562755}, issn = {2049-9957}, support = {82173586//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; BZ2020003//Science and Technology Support Program of Jiangsu Province/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Bulinus ; China ; *Climate Change ; Schistosoma haematobium ; Snails ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Bulinus globosus, the main intermediate snail host of Schistosoma haematobium. The increased contacts between Africa and China could even lead to large-scale dissemination of B. globosus in China. Temperature is the key factor affecting fresh-water snail transmission. This study predicted potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.<br><br>METHODS: We investigated minimum and maximum temperatures for B. globosus eggs, juveniles and adult snails kept under laboratory conditions to find the most suitable range by pinpointing the median effective temperatures (ET50). We also assessed the influence of temperature on spawning and estimated the accumulated temperature (AT). The average air temperatures between 1955 and 2019 in January and July, the coldest and hottest months in China, respectively, were collected from national meteorological monitoring stations and investigated in a geographic information system (GIS) using empirical Bayesian Kriging to evaluate the theoretical possibility for distribution of B. globosus in southern China based on temperature.<br><br>RESULTS: The effective minimum temperature (ET50min) for eggs, juveniles, adult snails and spawning were 8.5, 7.0, 7.0, 14.9&#xa0;&#xb0;C, respectively, with the corresponding maximum values (ET50max) of 36.6, 40.5, 40.2 and 38.1&#xa0;&#xb0;C. The AT was calculated at 712.1&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;64.9&#xa0;&#xb0;C&#xb7;d. In 1955, the potential B. globosus distribution would have had a northern boundary stretching from the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Autonomous Region to southern Yunnan Province. Since then, this line has gradually moved northward.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Annual regeneration of B. globosus can be supported by the current climate conditions in the mainland of China, and a gradual expansion trend from south to north is shown in the study from 2015 to 2019. Thus, there is a potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35561902, year = {2022}, author = {Kang, H and Sridhar, V and Ali, SA}, title = {Climate change impacts on conventional and flash droughts in the Mekong River Basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {838}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {155845}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155845}, pmid = {35561902}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Humans ; *Rivers ; Soil ; Water ; }, abstract = {Recent drought events in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) have resulted in devastating environmental and economic losses, and climate change and human-induced alterations have exacerbated drought conditions. Using hydrologic models and multiple climate change scenarios, this study quantified the future climate change impacts on conventional and flash drought conditions in the MRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models were applied to estimate long-term drought indices for conventional and flash drought conditions over historical and future periods (1966-2099), using two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5), and four climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For the conventional drought assessment, monthly scale drought indices were estimated, and pentad-scale (5 days) drought indices were computed for the flash drought evaluations. There were overall increases in droughts from the SWAT model for the conventional drought conditions and overall decreases from the VIC model. For the flash drought conditions, the SWAT-driven drought indices showed overall increases in drought occurrences (up to 165%). On the contrary, the VIC-driven drought indices presented decreases in drought occurrences (up to -44%). The conventional and flash drought evaluations differ between these models as they partition the water budget, specifically soil moisture differently. We conclude that the proposed framework, which includes hydrologic models, various emission scenarios, and projections, allows us to assess the various perspectives on drought conditions. Basin countries have differential impacts, so targeted future adaptation strategy is required.}, }
@article {pmid35561825, year = {2022}, author = {Agathokleous, E and De Marco, A and Paoletti, E and Querol, X and Sicard, P}, title = {Air pollution and climate change threats to plant ecosystems.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {212}, number = {Pt C}, pages = {113420}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.113420}, pmid = {35561825}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid35553672, year = {2022}, author = {Ladrón de Guevara, M and Maestre, FT}, title = {Ecology and responses to climate change of biocrust-forming mosses in drylands.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {73}, number = {13}, pages = {4380-4395}, pmid = {35553672}, issn = {1460-2431}, support = {647038/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; PAIDI 2020, DOC_01041)//Andalusian Research, Development and Innovation Plan/ ; 647038/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; CIDEGENT/2018/041//Generalitat Valenciana/ ; }, mesh = {*Bryophyta/physiology ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Interest in understanding the role of biocrusts as ecosystem engineers in drylands has substantially increased during the past two decades. Mosses are a major component of biocrusts and dominate their late successional stages. In general, their impacts on most ecosystem functions are greater than those of early-stage biocrust constituents. However, it is common to find contradictory results regarding how moss interactions with different biotic and abiotic factors affect ecosystem processes. This review aims to (i) describe the adaptations and environmental constraints of biocrust-forming mosses in drylands, (ii) identify their primary ecological roles in these ecosystems, and (iii) synthesize their responses to climate change. We emphasize the importance of interactions between specific functional traits of mosses (e.g. height, radiation reflectance, morphology, and shoot densities) and both the environment (e.g. climate, topography, and soil properties) and other organisms to understand their ecological roles and responses to climate change. We also highlight key areas that should be researched in the future to fill essential gaps in our understanding of the ecology and the responses to ongoing climate change of biocrust-forming mosses. These include a better understanding of intra- and interspecific interactions and mechanisms driving mosses' carbon balance during desiccation-rehydration cycles.}, }
@article {pmid35552738, year = {2022}, author = {Cassidy, VA and Asaro, C and McCarty, EP}, title = {Management Implications for the Nantucket Pine Tip Moth From Temperature-Induced Shifts in Phenology and Voltinism Attributed to Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {115}, number = {5}, pages = {1331-1341}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toac071}, pmid = {35552738}, issn = {1938-291X}, support = {25267-42025267//Georgia Forestry Commission/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Georgia ; *Insecticides/pharmacology ; *Moths ; *Pinus ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Forest insect pest phenology and infestation pressure may shift as temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, resulting in greater challenges for sustainable forest management . The Nantucket pine tip moth (NPTM) (Rhyacionia frustrana Comstock) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a native forest regeneration pest in the southeastern U.S. with multiple generations per year. Changes in NPTM voltinism may result from temperature-induced shifts in NPTM phenology. Degree-day models have been used to develop optimal spray dates (OSDs) for NPTM. The 2000 Spray Timing Model (STM), based on temperature data from 1960 to 2000, provided generation-specific 5-d OSDs to effectively time applications of contact insecticides. An updated degree-day model, the 2019 STM, is based on temperature data from 2000 to 2019 and was used to detect changes in voltinism as well as shifts in phenology and OSDs. Based on the model, increased voltinism occurred at 6 of the 28 study locations (21%). Changes in voltinism occurred in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of Georgia, U.S., with shifts from three to four or four to five generations a year, depending on location. The OSDs from the 2019 STM were compared to the 2000 STM OSDs. Over half (57%) of the OSDs differed by 5-15 d, with the majority (66%) resulting in earlier spray dates. The 2019 STM will help growers adapt NPTM control tactics to temperature-induced phenology shifts. NPTM serves as an example of temperature-induced changes attributed to climate change in a forest insect pest with important implications to forest management.}, }
@article {pmid35550808, year = {2022}, author = {Kharwadkar, S and Attanayake, V and Duncan, J and Navaratne, N and Benson, J}, title = {The impact of climate change on the risk factors for tuberculosis: A systematic review.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {212}, number = {Pt C}, pages = {113436}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.113436}, pmid = {35550808}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Diabetes Mellitus ; *HIV Infections/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Malnutrition ; Risk Factors ; *Tuberculosis/epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) continues to pose a major public health risk in many countries. The current incidence of disease exceeds guidelines proposed by the World Health Organisation and United Nations. Whilst the relationship between climate change and TB has surfaced in recent literature, it remains neglected in global agendas. There is a need to acknowledge TB as a climate-sensitive disease to facilitate its eradication.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To review epidemiological and prediction model studies that explore how climate change may affect the risk factors for TB, as outlined in the Global Tuberculosis Report 2021: HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, undernutrition, overcrowding, poverty, and indoor air pollution.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature search of PubMed, Embase, and Scopus databases to identify studies examining the association between climate variables and the risk factors for TB. Each study that satisfied the inclusion criteria was assessed for quality and ethics. Studies then underwent vote-counting and were categorised based on whether an association was found.<br><br>RESULTS: 53 studies met inclusion criteria and were included in our review. Vote-counting revealed that two out of two studies found a positive association between the examined climate change proxy and HIV, nine out of twelve studies for diabetes, eight out of seventeen studies for undernutrition, four out of five studies for overcrowding, twelve out of fifteen studies for poverty and one out of three studies for indoor air pollution.<br><br>DISCUSSION: We found evidence supporting a positive association between climate change and each of the discussed risk factors for TB, excluding indoor air pollution. Our findings suggest that climate change is likely to affect the susceptibility of individuals to TB by increasing the prevalence of its underlying risk factors, particularly in developing countries. This is an evolving field of research that requires further attention in the scientific community.}, }
@article {pmid35550712, year = {2022}, author = {Kaminski, I}, title = {How scientists are helping sue over climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {5}, pages = {e386-e387}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00098-5}, pmid = {35550712}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Physicians ; }, }
@article {pmid35550081, year = {2022}, author = {Laumann, F and von Kügelgen, J and Kanashiro Uehara, TH and Barahona, M}, title = {Complex interlinkages, key objectives, and nexuses among the Sustainable Development Goals and climate change: a network analysis.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {5}, pages = {e422-e430}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00070-5}, pmid = {35550081}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Economic Development ; Global Health ; Goals ; *Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global sustainability is an enmeshed system of complex socioeconomic, climatological, and ecological interactions. The numerous objectives of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement have various levels of interdependence, making it difficult to ascertain the influence of changes to particular indicators across the whole system. In this analysis, we aimed to detect and rank the complex interlinkages between objectives of sustainability agendas.<br><br>METHODS: We developed a method to find interlinkages among the 17 SDGs and climate change, including non-linear and non-monotonic dependences. We used time series of indicators defined by the World Bank, consisting of 400 indicators that measure progress towards the 17 SDGs and an 18th variable (annual average temperatures), representing progress in the response to the climate crisis, from 2000 to 2019. This method detects significant dependencies among the time evolution of the objectives by using partial distance correlations, a non-linear measure of conditional dependence that also discounts spurious correlations originating from lurking variables. We then used a network representation to identify the most important objectives (using network centrality) and to obtain nexuses of objectives (defined as highly interconnected clusters in the network).<br><br>FINDINGS: Using temporal data from 181 countries spanning 20 years, we analysed dependencies among SDGs and climate for 35 country groupings based on region, development, and income level. The observed significant interlinkages, central objectives, and nexuses identified varied greatly across country groupings; however, SDG 17 (partnerships for the goals) and climate change ranked as highly important across many country groupings. Temperature rise was strongly linked to urbanisation, air pollution, and slum expansion (SDG 11), especially in country groupings likely to be worst affected by climate breakdown, such as Africa. In several country groupings composed of developing nations, we observed a consistent nexus of strongly interconnected objectives formed by SDG 1 (poverty reduction), SDG 4 (education), and SDG 8 (economic growth), sometimes incorporating SDG 5 (gender equality), and SDG 16 (peace and justice).<br><br>INTERPRETATION: The differences across groupings emphasise the need to define goals in accordance with local circumstances and priorities. Our analysis highlights global partnerships (SDG 17) as a pivot in global sustainability efforts, which have been strongly linked to economic growth (SDG 8). However, if economic growth and trade expansion were repositioned as a means instead of an end goal of development, our analysis showed that education (SDG 4) and poverty reduction (SDG 1) become more central, thus suggesting that these could be prioritised in global partnerships. Urban livelihoods (SDG 11) were also flagged as important to avoid replicating unsustainable patterns of the past.<br><br>FUNDING: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK Research and Innovation.}, }
@article {pmid35550074, year = {2022}, author = {Hernandez, J and Meisner, J and Bardosh, K and Rabinowitz, P}, title = {Prevent pandemics and halt climate change? Strengthen land rights for Indigenous peoples.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {5}, pages = {e381-e382}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00069-9}, pmid = {35550074}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Indigenous Peoples ; Pandemics/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid35549175, year = {2022}, author = {Zhao, Y and Chang, H and Liu, X and Bisinella, V and Christensen, TH}, title = {Climate Change Impact of the Development in Household Waste Management in China.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {56}, number = {12}, pages = {8993-9002}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.1c07921}, pmid = {35549175}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; Food ; Incineration ; *Refuse Disposal ; Solid Waste/analysis ; *Waste Management ; }, abstract = {The potential climate change impacts of the development in Chinese household waste management, with less landfilling, more incineration with energy recovery, and source-separated food waste treated in biorefineries, were assessed through a life cycle assessment. When the waste management system interacts with a fossil-based energy system, landfilling produces a load of 144 kg CO2-eq/ton wet waste, while incineration shows a saving of 36 kg CO2-eq/ton wet waste. The introduction of food waste source separation lowers climate change impacts by an additional 33 kg CO2-eq/ton at a 60% sorting efficiency. As the Chinese energy system lowers its climate change impact over the next 30 years, energy recovery from waste treatment will change its relative contribution to climate change. In nonfossil energy systems, landfilling is estimated to have a climate change load of 180-240 kg CO2-eq/ton wet waste, while incineration, including combinations with the source-separation of food waste, will have a load of 310-540 kg CO2-eq/ton wet waste. These large intervals are due to waste composition uncertainty. However, considering a 20 year CH4 characterization factor representing a shorter time perspective, the impacts from landfilling are more dramatic due to the large methane release. This significant climate change impact calls for an increased focus on the developments in Chinese household waste management. The key issues identified may also apply to other countries.}, }
@article {pmid35546364, year = {2023}, author = {Masao, CA and Igoli, J and Liwenga, ET}, title = {Relevance of Neglected and Underutilized Plants for Climate Change Adaptation &amp; Conservation Implications in Semi-arid Regions of Tanzania.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {71}, number = {1}, pages = {114-130}, pmid = {35546364}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {J/5523-1//International Foundation for Science/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Tanzania ; *Plants ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Agriculture ; }, abstract = {Neglected and underutilized plant species (NUS) in Tanzania are maintained by socio-cultural preferences. However, a majority remains inadequately characterized and neglected by research and conservation initiatives. Over long time ago, the NUS have been part of the major component in the food systems of local communities especially in the dryland areas to overcome challenges brought about by uncertain climatic conditions. This study documents the NUS diversity and indigenous knowledge on their availability, agronomic and cultural practices in the Semi-arid zones of Tanzania to verify their economic potentials and promote their sustainable utilization for climate change adaptation as well as natural resources conservation. The study involved field plant identification, quantification and participatory rural appraisals (PRAs). The results indicate that the study regions have very rich diversity of NUS contributing significantly to the people's adaptation to drought conditions and food shortages in the areas. The NUS in the studied regions had varied uses including food and medicine. A majority of the consulted farmers in the study area indicated that the NUS utilized in the areas were either minimally cultivated on farms, freely obtained from the wild or grew as weeds in the farmlands. Despite the potentials for NUS in contributing to climate change adaptation in the areas, so far there have been no efforts geared towards their sustainable utilization and conservation. It is observed that promotion of NUS through improved packaging and marketing could contribute to the economy of the local people who have access to NUS in the area and therefore enhance resilience of semi-arid communities.}, }
@article {pmid35545440, year = {2022}, author = {Staples, TL and Kiessling, W and Pandolfi, JM}, title = {Emergence patterns of locally novel plant communities driven by past climate change and modern anthropogenic impacts.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1497-1509}, pmid = {35545440}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {KI 806/15//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; CE140100020//Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies/ ; DP210100804//Australian Research Council Discovery/ ; }, mesh = {*Anthropogenic Effects ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Plants ; Pollen ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic disturbance and climate change can result in dramatic increases in the emergence of new, ecologically novel, communities of organisms. We used a standardised framework to detect local novel communities in 2135 pollen time series over the last 25,000 years. Eight thousand years of post-glacial warming coincided with a threefold increase in local novel community emergence relative to glacial estimates. Novel communities emerged predominantly at high latitudes and were linked to global and local temperature change across multi-millennial time intervals. In contrast, emergence of locally novel communities in the last 200 years, although already on par with glacial retreat estimates, occurred at midlatitudes and near high human population densities. Anthropogenic warming does not appear to be strongly associated with modern local novel communities, but may drive widespread emergence in the future, with legacy effects for millennia after warming abates.}, }
@article {pmid35545286, year = {2022}, author = {James, A}, title = {Urgent action needed to address mental health risks of climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {377}, number = {}, pages = {o1180}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o1180}, pmid = {35545286}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid35544828, year = {2022}, author = {Vassari-Pereira, D and Valverde, MC and Asmus, GF}, title = {[Impact of climate change and air quality on hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in municipalities in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP), Brazil].}, journal = {Ciencia &amp; saude coletiva}, volume = {27}, number = {5}, pages = {2023-2034}, doi = {10.1590/1413-81232022275.08632021}, pmid = {35544828}, issn = {1678-4561}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Brazil/epidemiology ; Cities ; Climate Change ; Hospitalization ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The scope of this study was to analyze the possible impacts of climate change on respiratory health in the municipalities of Santo André and São Caetano do Sul. Historical meteorological data (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure), air quality data (concentrations of PM10 and O3) and respiratory health data (incidence rates of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases - IRHRD) were related through statistical models of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Meteorological data from future climate projections (2019-2099) from three different climate models (one global and two regionalized) in two emission scenarios were applied to the MLR models. The results showed that the IRHRD will suffer an increase of up to 10% in relation to the current levels for São Caetano do Sul in the 2070-2099 period. In Santo André, projections indicated a reduction of up to 26% in IRHRD. The most important variable in the MLR models for Santo André was temperature (-2,15x), indicating an inverse relationship between global warming and an increase in IRHRD, while in São Caetano the atmospheric pressure had the greatest weight (2.44x). For future studies, the inclusion of future projections of PM10 concentrations is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid35544378, year = {2022}, author = {Heinzerling, L}, title = {Climate Change in the Supreme Court.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {386}, number = {24}, pages = {2255-2257}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp2201800}, pmid = {35544378}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Supreme Court Decisions ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid35544145, year = {2021}, author = {The Lancet Microbe, }, title = {Climate change: fires, floods, and infectious diseases.}, journal = {The Lancet. Microbe}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {e415}, doi = {10.1016/S2666-5247(21)00220-2}, pmid = {35544145}, issn = {2666-5247}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; *Fires ; Floods ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35542964, year = {2022}, author = {Malerba, D}, title = {The Effects of Social Protection and Social Cohesion on the Acceptability of Climate Change Mitigation Policies: What Do We (Not) Know in the Context of Low- and Middle-Income Countries?.}, journal = {The European journal of development research}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {1358-1382}, pmid = {35542964}, issn = {0957-8811}, abstract = {Significant climate change mitigation policies are urgently needed to achieve emissions reduction targets. This paper shows that social protection and social cohesion play a critical role in making climate policies more acceptable to citizens by summarizing existing streams of research focusing on industrialized countries. Further, the empirical analysis explores whether these relationships also hold for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), which are increasingly implementing climate change mitigation policies. The results show that vertical and horizontal trust increase acceptability in all countries. However, preferences for social protection have a positive effect only in industrialized ones. This may suggest a contrast between social and environmental goals in LMICs, where social goals are prioritized. The analysis also revealed a significant interaction between social cohesion and social protection. The paper concludes by discussing the existing research gap as to LMICs and outlines policy options to overcome the conflict between social and environmental goals.}, }
@article {pmid35541025, year = {2022}, author = {Jahn, S and Hertig, E}, title = {Using Clustering, Statistical Modeling, and Climate Change Projections to Analyze Recent and Future Region-Specific Compound Ozone and Temperature Burden Over Europe.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {e2021GH000561}, pmid = {35541025}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {High ground-level ozone concentrations and high air temperatures present two health-relevant natural hazards. The most severe health outcomes are generally associated with concurrent elevated levels of both variables, representing so-called compound ozone and temperature (o-t-) events. These o-t-events, their relationship with identified main meteorological and synoptic drivers, as well as ozone and temperature levels themselves and the linkage between both variables, vary temporally and with the location of sites. Due to the serious health burden and its spatiotemporal variations, the analysis of o-t-events across the European domain represents the focus of the current work. The main objective is to model and project present and future o-t-events, taking region-specific differences into account. Thus, a division of the European domain into six o-t-regions with homogeneous, similar ground-level ozone and temperature characteristics and patterns built the basis of the study. In order to assess region-specific main meteorological and synoptic drivers of o-t-events, statistical downscaling models were developed for selected representative stations per o-t-region. Statistical climate change projections for all central European o-t-regions were generated to assess potential frequency shifts of o-t-events until the end of the 21st century. The output of eight Earth System Models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project considering SSP245 and SSP370 scenario assumptions was applied. By comparing midcentury (2041-2060) and late century (2081-2100) time slice differences with respect to a historical base period (1995-2014), substantial increases of the health-relevant compound o-t-events were projected across all central European regions.}, }
@article {pmid35538366, year = {2022}, author = {Mukherji, A}, title = {Climate change: put water at the heart of solutions.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {605}, number = {7909}, pages = {195}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-01273-2}, pmid = {35538366}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Policy ; *Water ; Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid35538148, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, Z and Lu, C}, title = {Assessing influences of climate change on highland barley productivity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1978-2017.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {7625}, pmid = {35538148}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Edible Grain ; *Hordeum ; Seasons ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Grain production is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change globally. Highland barley (HB) is the most important cereal crop in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), so assessing HB productivity and its response to climate change could help to understand the capacity of grain production and food security. This study simulated the potential yield of HB annually at 72 meteorological stations for 1978-2017 using the WOFOST model, and then analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of HB potential yield and climatic factors in the growing season. Further, the influence of climate change on HB potential yield was explored in different temperature zones (TZ). Results indicate that the annual average of HB potential yield ranged from 3.5 to 8.1 t/ha in the QTP, and it was averaged at 6.5 t/ha in TZ-3, higher than other zones. From 1978 to 2017, HB potential yield for the whole QTP decreased slightly by 2.1 kg/ha per year, and its change rates were 23.9, 10.1, - 15.9, - 23.8 and - 16.7 kg/ha/year from TZ-1 to TZ-5 (p < 0.05), respectively. In all zones, average (Tave), maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) showed a significantly warming trend (p < 0.01), and Tmin increased by 0.53, 0.45, 0.44, 0.40 and 0.69 °C per decade, higher than that of Tave and Tmax. However, temperature diurnal range (TDR) and radiation (RA) showed a downward trend, and their decrease rates were far higher in TZ-5 and TZ-3. In TZ-1, ΔTDR was the critical factor to the change in HB potential yield, which would increase by 420.30 kg/ha for 1 °C increase of ΔTDR (p < 0.01). From TZ-2 to TZ-5, ΔRA was the critical factor, but the influence amplitude in terms of the elastic coefficient, decreased from 4.08 to 0.99 (p < 0.01). In addition, other factors such as ΔTmax in TZ-3 and ΔTmin in TZ-4 and TZ-5 also had an important influence on the potential yield. To improve the HB productivity in the QTP, suitable varieties should be developed and introduced to adapt the climate warming in different temperature zones. In addition, efforts are needed to adjust the strategies of fertilizers and irrigation applications.}, }
@article {pmid35535473, year = {2022}, author = {Ortega-Guzmán, L and Rojas-Soto, O and Santiago-Alarcon, D and Huber-Sannwald, E and Chapa-Vargas, L}, title = {Climate predictors and climate change projections for avian haemosporidian prevalence in Mexico.}, journal = {Parasitology}, volume = {149}, number = {8}, pages = {1129-1144}, doi = {10.1017/S0031182022000683}, pmid = {35535473}, issn = {1469-8161}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bird Diseases/epidemiology/parasitology ; Climate Change ; *Haemosporida ; Mexico/epidemiology ; *Parasites ; Phylogeny ; *Plasmodium ; Prevalence ; }, abstract = {Long-term, inter-annual and seasonal variation in temperature and precipitation influence the distribution and prevalence of intraerythrocytic haemosporidian parasites. We characterized the climatic niche behind the prevalence of the three main haemosporidian genera (Haemoproteus, Plasmodium and Leucocytozoon) in central-eastern Mexico, to understand their main climate drivers. Then, we projected the influence of climate change over prevalence distribution in the region. Using the MaxEnt modelling algorithm, we assessed the relative contribution of bioclimatic predictor variables to identify those most influential to haemosporidian prevalence in different avian communities within the region. Two contrasting climate change scenarios for 2070 were used to create distribution models to explain spatial turnover in prevalence caused by climate change. We assigned our study sites into polygonal operational climatic units (OCUs) and used the general haemosporidian prevalence for each OCU to indirectly measure environmental suitability for these parasites. A high statistical association between global prevalence and the bioclimatic variables ‘mean diurnal temperature range’ and ‘annual temperature range’ was found. Climate change projections for 2070 showed a significant modification of the current distribution of suitable climate areas for haemosporidians in the study region.}, }
@article {pmid35533276, year = {2022}, author = {Wu, C and Sitch, S and Huntingford, C and Mercado, LM and Venevsky, S and Lasslop, G and Archibald, S and Staver, AC}, title = {Reduced global fire activity due to human demography slows global warming by enhanced land carbon uptake.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {20}, pages = {e2101186119}, pmid = {35533276}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; Demography ; Ecosystem ; *Fires ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Fire is an important climate-driven disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems, also modulated by human ignitions or fire suppression. Changes in fire emissions can feed back on the global carbon cycle, but whether the trajectories of changing fire activity will exacerbate or attenuate climate change is poorly understood. Here, we quantify fire dynamics under historical and future climate and human demography using a coupled global climate–fire–carbon cycle model that emulates 34 individual Earth system models (ESMs). Results are compared with counterfactual worlds, one with a constant preindustrial fire regime and another without fire. Although uncertainty in projected fire effects is large and depends on ESM, socioeconomic trajectory, and emissions scenario, we find that changes in human demography tend to suppress global fire activity, keeping more carbon within terrestrial ecosystems and attenuating warming. Globally, changes in fire have acted to warm climate throughout most of the 20th century. However, recent and predicted future reductions in fire activity may reverse this, enhancing land carbon uptake and corresponding to offsetting ∼5 to 10 y of global CO2 emissions at today’s levels. This potentially reduces warming by up to 0.11 °C by 2100. We show that climate–carbon cycle feedbacks, as caused by changing fire regimes, are most effective at slowing global warming under lower emission scenarios. Our study highlights that ignitions and active and passive fire suppression can be as important in driving future fire regimes as changes in climate, although with some risk of more extreme fires regionally and with implications for other ecosystem functions in fire-dependent ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid35529678, year = {2022}, author = {Bessagnet, B and Allemand, N and Putaud, JP and Couvidat, F and André, JM and Simpson, D and Pisoni, E and Murphy, BN and Thunis, P}, title = {Emissions of Carbonaceous Particulate Matter and Ultrafine Particles from Vehicles-A Scientific Review in a Cross-Cutting Context of Air Pollution and Climate Change.}, journal = {Applied sciences (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {1-52}, pmid = {35529678}, issn = {2076-3417}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Airborne particulate matter (PM) is a pollutant of concern not only because of its adverse effects on human health but also on visibility and the radiative budget of the atmosphere. PM can be considered as a sum of solid/liquid species covering a wide range of particle sizes with diverse chemical composition. Organic aerosols may be emitted (primary organic aerosols, POA), or formed in the atmosphere following reaction of volatile organic compounds (secondary organic aerosols, SOA), but some of these compounds may partition between the gas and aerosol phases depending upon ambient conditions. This review focuses on carbonaceous PM and gaseous precursors emitted by road traffic, including ultrafine particles (UFP) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that are clearly linked to the evolution and formation of carbonaceous species. Clearly, the solid fraction of PM has been reduced during the last two decades, with the implementation of after-treatment systems abating approximately 99% of primary solid particle mass concentrations. However, the role of brown carbon and its radiative effect on climate and the generation of ultrafine particles by nucleation of organic vapour during the dilution of the exhaust remain unclear phenomena and will need further investigation. The increasing role of gasoline vehicles on carbonaceous particle emissions and formation is also highlighted, particularly through the chemical and thermodynamic evolution of organic gases and their propensity to produce particles. The remaining carbon-containing particles from brakes, tyres and road wear will still be a problem even in a future of full electrification of the vehicle fleet. Some key conclusions and recommendations are also proposed to support the decision makers in view of the next regulations on vehicle emissions worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid35529481, year = {2022}, author = {Alkishe, A and Peterson, AT}, title = {Climate change influences on the geographic distributional potential of the spotted fever vectors Amblyomma maculatum and Dermacentor andersoni.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e13279}, pmid = {35529481}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; United States ; *Dermacentor/microbiology ; Amblyomma ; Climate Change ; *Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever/epidemiology ; *Spotted Fever Group Rickettsiosis ; }, abstract = {Amblyomma maculatum (Gulf Coast tick), and Dermacentor andersoni (Rocky Mountain wood tick) are two North American ticks that transmit spotted fevers associated Rickettsia. Amblyomma maculatum transmits Rickettsia parkeri and Francisella tularensis, while D. andersoni transmits R. rickettsii, Anaplasma marginale, Coltivirus (Colorado tick fever virus), and F. tularensis. Increases in temperature causes mild winters and more extreme dry periods during summers, which will affect tick populations in unknown ways. Here, we used ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the potential geographic distributions of these two medically important vector species in North America under current condition and then transfer those models to the future under different future climate scenarios with special interest in highlighting new potential expansion areas. Current model predictions for A. maculatum showed suitable areas across the southern and Midwest United States, and east coast, western and southern Mexico. For D. andersoni, our models showed broad suitable areas across northwestern United States. New potential for range expansions was anticipated for both tick species northward in response to climate change, extending across the Midwest and New England for A. maculatum, and still farther north into Canada for D. andersoni.}, }
@article {pmid35527235, year = {2022}, author = {Tournebize, R and Borner, L and Manel, S and Meynard, CN and Vigouroux, Y and Crouzillat, D and Fournier, C and Kassam, M and Descombes, P and Tranchant-Dubreuil, C and Parrinello, H and Kiwuka, C and Sumirat, U and Legnate, H and Kambale, JL and Sonké, B and Mahinga, JC and Musoli, P and Janssens, SB and Stoffelen, P and de Kochko, A and Poncet, V}, title = {Ecological and genomic vulnerability to climate change across native populations of Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {13}, pages = {4124-4142}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16191}, pmid = {35527235}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Coffea/genetics ; Coffee ; Genome, Plant ; Genomics ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The assessment of population vulnerability under climate change is crucial for planning conservation as well as for ensuring food security. Coffea canephora is, in its native habitat, an understorey tree that is mainly distributed in the lowland rainforests of tropical Africa. Also known as Robusta, its commercial value constitutes a significant revenue for many human populations in tropical countries. Comparing ecological and genomic vulnerabilities within the species' native range can provide valuable insights about habitat loss and the species' adaptive potential, allowing to identify genotypes that may act as a resource for varietal improvement. By applying species distribution models, we assessed ecological vulnerability as the decrease in climatic suitability under future climatic conditions from 492 occurrences. We then quantified genomic vulnerability (or risk of maladaptation) as the allelic composition change required to keep pace with predicted climate change. Genomic vulnerability was estimated from genomic environmental correlations throughout the native range. Suitable habitat was predicted to diminish to half its size by 2050, with populations near coastlines and around the Congo River being the most vulnerable. Whole-genome sequencing revealed 165 candidate SNPs associated with climatic adaptation in C. canephora, which were located in genes involved in plant response to biotic and abiotic stressors. Genomic vulnerability was higher for populations in West Africa and in the region at the border between DRC and Uganda. Despite an overall low correlation between genomic and ecological vulnerability at broad scale, these two components of vulnerability overlap spatially in ways that may become damaging. Genomic vulnerability was estimated to be 23% higher in populations where habitat will be lost in 2050 compared to regions where habitat will remain suitable. These results highlight how ecological and genomic vulnerabilities are relevant when planning on how to cope with climate change regarding an economically important species.}, }
@article {pmid35526639, year = {2022}, author = {Ashrafzadeh, MR and Khosravi, R and Mohammadi, A and Naghipour, AA and Khoshnamvand, H and Haidarian, M and Penteriani, V}, title = {Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {837}, number = {}, pages = {155753}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155753}, pmid = {35526639}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Humans ; Iran ; *Ursidae ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the major challenges to the current conservation of biodiversity. Here, by using the brown bear, Ursus arctos, in the southernmost limit of its global distribution as a model species, we assessed the impact of climate change on the species distribution in western Iran. The mountainous forests of Iran are inhabited by small and isolated populations of brown bears that are prone to extinction in the near future. We modeled the potential impact of climate change on brown bear distribution and habitat connectivity by the years 2050 and 2070 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of two general circulation models (GCMs): BCC-CSM1-1 and MRI-CGCM3. Our projections revealed that the current species' range, which encompasses 6749.8 km[2] (40.8%) of the landscape, will decline by 10% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 45% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1-1). About 1850 km[2] (27.4%) of the current range is covered by a network of conservation (CAs) and no-hunting (NHAs) areas which are predicted to decline by 0.64% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 15.56% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1-1) due to climate change. The loss of suitable habitats falling within the network of CAs and NHAs is a conservation challenge for brown bears because it may lead to bears moving outside the CAs and NHAs and result in subsequent increases in the levels of bear-human conflict. Thus, re-evaluation of the network of CAs and NHAs, establishing more protected areas in suitable landscapes, and conserving vital linkages between habitat patches under future climate change scenarios are crucial strategies to conserve and manage endangered populations of the brown bear.}, }
@article {pmid35526395, year = {2022}, author = {Lopes, HS and Remoaldo, PC and Ribeiro, V and Martín-Vide, J}, title = {Pathways for adapting tourism to climate change in an urban destination - Evidences based on thermal conditions for the Porto Metropolitan Area (Portugal).}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {315}, number = {}, pages = {115161}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115161}, pmid = {35526395}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Cities ; City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Portugal ; *Tourism ; }, abstract = {The narrative of sustainable tourism transition in a context of adaptation to climate change is very relevant internationally. The availability and sharing of knowledge and information is a basic requirement for the successful planning of the tourism sector regarding this phenomenon. Planning adaptation in the urban tourism sector is widely regarded as a collectively-based process. However, collaborative planning is far from being the standard. This study reports the results of a Modified Delphi Approach (MDA) among experts about the future of urban tourism in a context of adaptation to climate change in Porto Metropolitan Area (Portugal), considering the outdoor thermal conditions perspective. Using an expert panel, the study gathered their opinions to analyze the degrees of responsibility of the main sectorial entities at different territorial levels, the conditions of action in the transformation agenda and the measures to be implemented in the adaptation and mitigation process - according to priority and time horizon. Two rounds were carried out to apply the methodology between January and April 2021. The first questionnaire had the participation of 47 professionals. 34 out of the 47 professionals of the 1st round participated in the second questionnaire. The evidence from different stakeholders demonstrates that there is an ambiguous process of understanding the problem, information needs, and a weak interaction between actors - resources - tasks. The effectiveness and efficiency of collaborative planning and outlined goals by 2050 for adaptation of urban tourism sector to climate change can be hampered. Experts consider the creation of structural (tangible) measures to be fundamental. Among other results, it was found that most participants consider that the intervention is dependent on the guidelines issued by the government and municipal councils when it comes to defining a proposal for adapting the urban tourism sector to climate change. Despite this, the options for more sustainable practices must be based on three axes: (i) solutions based on the energy sector in the hotel industry (e.g., energy certification, prioritization of the use of renewable energy); (ii) improvement and expansion of green infrastructure for tourist enjoyment [e.g., creation of green areas (small additional pockets), namely in the center of Porto; and pedestrianization of central areas of the city] and (iii) network participation through the collaboration of various stakeholders with relevance in tourism and urban planning.}, }
@article {pmid35525371, year = {2022}, author = {Lincoln, S and Andrews, B and Birchenough, SNR and Chowdhury, P and Engelhard, GH and Harrod, O and Pinnegar, JK and Townhill, BL}, title = {Marine litter and climate change: Inextricably connected threats to the world's oceans.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {837}, number = {}, pages = {155709}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155709}, pmid = {35525371}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; Plastics ; }, abstract = {The global issues of climate change and marine litter are interlinked and understanding these connections is key to managing their combined risks to marine biodiversity and ultimately society. For example, fossil fuel-based plastics cause direct emissions of greenhouse gases and therefore are an important contributing factor to climate change, while other impacts of plastics can manifest as alterations in key species and habitats in coastal and marine environments. Marine litter is acknowledged as a threat multiplier that acts with other stressors such as climate change to cause far greater damage than if they occurred in isolation. On the other hand, while climate change can lead to increased inputs of litter into the marine environment, the presence of marine litter can also undermine the climate resilience of marine ecosystems. There is increasing evidence that that climate change and marine litter are inextricably linked, although these interactions and the resulting effects vary widely across oceanic regions and depend on the particular characteristics of specific marine environments. Ecosystem resilience approaches, that integrate climate change with other local stressors, offer a suitable framework to incorporate the consideration of marine litter where that is deemed to be a risk, and to steer, coordinate and prioritise research and monitoring, as well as management, policy, planning and action to effectively tackle the combined risks and impacts from climate change and marine litter.}, }
@article {pmid35524848, year = {2022}, author = {Kumar, D and Rawat, S}, title = {Modeling the effect of climate change on the distribution of threatened medicinal orchid Satyrium nepalense D. Don in India.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {48}, pages = {72431-72444}, pmid = {35524848}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; India ; *Orchidaceae ; }, abstract = {It is vital to understand the distribution area of a threatened plant species for its better conservation and management planning. Satyrium nepalense (family: Orchidaceae) is a threatened terrestrial orchid species with valuable medicinal and nutritional properties. The survival of S. nepalense in wild conditions has been challenged by increasing global surface temperature. Hence, understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is crucial to conserve and restore this species. In present study, Maxent species distribution modeling algorithm was used to simulate the current distribution of S. nepalense in India and predict the possible range shift in projected future climate scenarios. A set of 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database were used to predict the potential suitable habitats in current climatic condition and four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios by integrating five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for future distribution modeling of species for the years 2050 and 2070. Furthermore, change analysis was performed to identify the suitable habitat in current and future climate for delineating range expansion (gain), contraction (loss), and stable (no change) habitats of species. The Maxent model predicted that ~ 2.38% of the geographical area in India is presently climatically suitable for S. nepalense. The key bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of studied species were the mean temperature of warmest quarter, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature seasonality. Under future climate change scenarios, the total suitable habitat of S. nepalense will increase slightly in the Himalayan region and likely to migrate towards northward, but in the Western Ghats region, the suitable areas will be lost severely. The net habitat loss under four RCP scenarios was estimated from 26 to 39% for the year 2050, which could further increase from 47 to 60% by the year 2070. The finding of the predictive Maxent modeling approach indicates that warming climates could significantly affect the potential habitats of S. nepalense and hence suitable conservation measures need to be taken to protect this threatened orchid species in wild conditions.}, }
@article {pmid35523445, year = {2022}, author = {Godlee, F}, title = {Who cares about climate change?.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {377}, number = {}, pages = {o1150}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o1150}, pmid = {35523445}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Quality of Life ; }, }
@article {pmid35523276, year = {2022}, author = {He, P and Ma, X and Sun, Z}, title = {Interannual variability in summer climate change controls GPP long-term changes.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {212}, number = {Pt C}, pages = {113409}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.113409}, pmid = {35523276}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with implications for the functioning of the Earth system and the provision of ecosystem services. How vegetation responds to a changing environment is an important scientific issue, but there is a lack of coverage of the relative contributions that long-term variation and interannual variability in vegetation across seasons play in ecosystem response to global change. Here, we used four terrestrial ecosystem models provided by MsTMIP to examine four key environmental drivers of gross primary productivity (GPP) change over the period 1901-2010. Our findings showed that (1) for all seasons, interannual variability in climate change are the main environmental factor controlling seasonal GPP variability. (2) Summer is the key season controlling the variation of annual GPP, and its long-term trend and interannual variability can explain 61.50% of the variation of grassland GPP in China. (3) Interannual variability in summer climate change exceeded the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen deposition as the controlling component (more than 40%) of long-term variation in Chinese grassland GPP. These studies highlight the important role of interannual variability in climate in reshaping the seasonality of vegetation growth, and will provide a precursor to future environmental drivers that can be precisely attributed to global vegetation change.}, }
@article {pmid35521539, year = {2022}, author = {Vitillo, JG and Eisaman, MD and Aradóttir, ESP and Passarini, F and Wang, T and Sheehan, SW}, title = {The role of carbon capture, utilization, and storage for economic pathways that limit global warming to below 1.5°C.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {25}, number = {5}, pages = {104237}, pmid = {35521539}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {The 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, for the first time, stated that CO2 removal will be necessary to meet our climate goals. However, there is a cost to accomplish CO2 removal or mitigation that varies by source. Accordingly, a sensible strategy to prevent climate change begins by mitigating emission sources requiring the least energy and capital investment per ton of CO2, such as new emitters and long-term stationary sources. The production of CO2-derived products should also start by favoring processes that bring to market high-value products with sufficient margin to tolerate a higher cost of goods.}, }
@article {pmid35518280, year = {2022}, author = {Hermann, M and Jansen, R and van de Glind, J and Peeters, ETHM and Van den Brink, PJ}, title = {A transportable temperature and heatwave control device (TENTACLE) for laboratory and field simulations of different climate change scenarios in aquatic micro- and mesocosms.}, journal = {HardwareX}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {e00307}, pmid = {35518280}, issn = {2468-0672}, abstract = {Future global climate change with higher mean temperatures and increased intensity and frequency of heatwaves as extreme weather events will affect aquatic ecosystems with, yet, unpredictable severity and consequences. Although models suggest increased risk of species extinction up to the year 2050 for series of different climate change scenarios, environmental complexity may result in unconsidered effects of future temperature alterations on ecosystems. Apart from these environmental changes, additional anthropogenic stressors, e.g. chemical release, may cause unprecedented interaction effects on ecosystems. Ongoing efforts to better understand such temperature-chemical interaction effects comprise almost exclusively experimental designs using constant temperature regimes instead of environmentally realistic daily temperature variations. In this paper we describe an Arduino-based temperature and heatwave control device (TENTACLE) that is transportable, inexpensive, multifunctional, and easily reproducible. TENTACLE offers water temperature monitoring and manipulation of up to 3 different climate change-related scenarios: i) natural (ambient) sinusoidal fluctuations (laboratory applications), ii) elevated fluctuations, and iii) heatwaves as extreme events. The use of replaceable heating elements and low-cost materials suitable for field studies creates a high flexibility for researchers who may conduct in- or out-door, small- or large-scale, fresh- or salt-water experiments at different geographical locations.}, }
@article {pmid35515990, year = {2022}, author = {Teixeira, CP and Fernandes, CO and Ahern, J and Farinha-Marques, P}, title = {Plant traits database for climate change adaptation and mitigation in Northwest Portugal.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {108193}, pmid = {35515990}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {The database presented in this data article is related to the article "Adaptive planting design and management framework for urban climate change adaptation and mitigation" [1]. It includes a list of 287 plant species presently occurring in Porto, Portugal, more precisely in urban green spaces with high urban ecological novelty levels. The plant species in this list were classified and organized according to several traits with a particular focus on plant species' adaptation, mitigation, and ornamental characteristics. Data collection resorted to articles, books, and various open access and online datasets. Data were organized in an Excel file that organizes information on more than 50 plant species traits/variables.}, }
@article {pmid35513439, year = {2022}, author = {Reed, KA and Wehner, MF and Zarzycki, CM}, title = {Author Correction: Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {2589}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-30242-6}, pmid = {35513439}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid35513405, year = {2022}, author = {Pinke, Z and Decsi, B and Jámbor, A and Kardos, MK and Kern, Z and Kozma, Z and Ács, T}, title = {Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain production.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {7374}, pmid = {35513405}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Edible Grain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Triticum ; }, abstract = {Charting the long-term trends in European wheat and maize yields and harvested areas and the relation of yields to climatic and economic drivers, two profound spatial processes become apparent. One consequence of the relatively late modernization of Eastern Europe has been to shift the focus of grain production from West to East. The warming trend prevailing over the past decades in the summer and winter seasons has been accompanied by a South to North shift in the harvested areas. The combination of these two processes has meant that the north-eastern sector of the European grain chessboard has emerged as the main beneficiary. There, the relatively low sensitivity of cereals to climatic change plus high economic growth rates have been accompanied by the most dynamic increases in cereal yields on the continent. As a result, a modern version of the 3000 year-old grain distribution system of the Ancient World is being restored before our eyes. One noteworthy finding is that increasing January-March temperatures have had a significant positive impact on wheat yields from Northern to South-Eastern Europe, and this is, at least in part, compensating for the negative impact of summer warming.}, }
@article {pmid35513154, year = {2022}, author = {Abd-Elaty, I and Kushwaha, NL and Grismer, ME and Elbeltagi, A and Kuriqi, A}, title = {Cost-effective management measures for coastal aquifers affected by saltwater intrusion and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {836}, number = {}, pages = {155656}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155656}, pmid = {35513154}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; *Groundwater ; Salinity ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Sustainable management of natural water resources and food security in the face of changing climate conditions is critical to the livelihood of coastal communities. Increasing inundation and saltwater intrusion (SWI) will likely adversely affect agricultural production and the associated beach access for tourism. This study uses an integrated surface-ground water model to introduce a new approach for retardation of SWI that consists of placing aquifer fill materials along the existing shoreline using Coastal Land Reclamation (CLR). The modeling results suggest that the artificial aquifer materials could be designed to decrease SWI by increasing the infiltration area of coastal precipitation, collecting runoffs from the catchment area, and applying treated wastewater or desalinated brackish water-using coastal wave energy to reduce water treatment costs. The SEAWAT model was applied to verify that it correctly addressed Henry's problem and then applied to the Biscayne aquifer, Florida, USA. In this study, to better inform Coastal Aquifer Management (CAM), we developed four modeling scenarios, namely, Physical Surface Barriers (PSB), including the artificial aquifer widths, permeability, and side slopes and recharge. In the base case scenario without artificial aquifer placement, results show that seawater levels would increase aquifer salinity and displace large amounts of presently available fresh groundwater. More specifically, for the Biscayne aquifer, approximately 0.50% of available fresh groundwater will be lost (that is, 41,192 m[3]) per km of the width of the aquifer considering the increasing seawater level. Furthermore, the results suggest that placing the PSB aquifer with a smaller permeability of <100 m per day at a width of approximately 615 m increases the available fresh groundwater by approximately 45.20 and 43.90% per km of shoreline, respectively. Similarly, decreasing the slope on the aquifer-ocean side and increasing the aquifer recharge will increase freshwater availability by about 43.90 and 44.50% per km of the aquifer. Finally, placing an aquifer fill along the shallow shoreline increases net revenues to the coastal community through increased agricultural production and possibly tourism that offset fill placement and water treatment costs. This study is useful for integrated management of coastal zones by delaying aquifer salinity, protecting fresh groundwater bodies, increasing agricultural lands, supporting surface water supplies by harvesting rainfall and flash flooding, and desalinating saline water using wave energy. Also, the feasibility of freshwater storage and costs for CAM is achieved in this study.}, }
@article {pmid35512599, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, H and Wang, WJ and Liu, Z and Wang, L and Zhang, W and Zou, Y and Jiang, M}, title = {Combined effects of multi-land use decisions and climate change on water-related ecosystem services in Northeast China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {315}, number = {}, pages = {115131}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115131}, pmid = {35512599}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Soil ; Water ; }, abstract = {Land use intensification and climate change have resulted in substantial changes in the provision of ecosystem services, particularly in China that experienced sharp increases in population growth and demands for goods and energy. To protect the environment and restore the degraded ecosystems, the Chinese government has implemented multiple national ecological restoration projects. Yet, the combined effects of climate change and land use and land cover change (LULCC) over large spatial scales that brace multiple land use decisions and great environmental heterogeneity remain unclear. We assessed the combined effects of LULCC and climate change on water-related ecosystem services (water provision and soil conservation services) from 1990s to 2020s in Northeast China using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model. We found that water yield decreased by 9.78% and soil retention increased by 30.51% over the past 30 years. LULCC and climate change exerted negative effects on water yield whereas they both enhanced soil retention; LULCC interacted with climate change to have relatively small inhibitory effects on water yield and large facilitation effects on soil retention. Changes in water yield were mainly attributed to climate change, while soil retention was largely influenced by LULCC and its interaction with climate change. Our research highlights the importance of land use decisions and its interactive effects with climate change on ecosystem services in a heavily disturbed temperate region, and provides important information to inform future land management and policy making for sustaining diverse ecosystem services and ensuring human wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid35512276, year = {2022}, author = {Beechinor, RJ and Overberg, A and Brown, CS and Cummins, S and Mordino, J}, title = {Climate change is here: What will the profession of pharmacy do about it?.}, journal = {American journal of health-system pharmacy : AJHP : official journal of the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists}, volume = {79}, number = {16}, pages = {1393-1396}, doi = {10.1093/ajhp/zxac124}, pmid = {35512276}, issn = {1535-2900}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Pharmaceutical Services ; *Pharmacies ; *Pharmacy ; }, }
@article {pmid35511965, year = {2022}, author = {Liz, AV and Gonçalves, DV and Velo-Antón, G and Brito, JC and Crochet, PA and Rödder, D}, title = {Adapt biodiversity targets to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {376}, number = {6593}, pages = {589-590}, doi = {10.1126/science.abo7381}, pmid = {35511965}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid35508975, year = {2022}, author = {Johnson, JV and Dick, JTA and Pincheira-Donoso, D}, title = {Marine protected areas do not buffer corals from bleaching under global warming.}, journal = {BMC ecology and evolution}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {58}, pmid = {35508975}, issn = {2730-7182}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Bayes Theorem ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The rising temperature of the oceans has been identified as the primary driver of mass coral reef declines via coral bleaching (expulsion of photosynthetic endosymbionts). Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been implemented throughout the oceans with the aim of mitigating the impact of local stressors, enhancing fish biomass, and sustaining biodiversity overall. In coral reef regions specifically, protection from local stressors and the enhanced ecosystem function contributed by MPAs are expected to increase coral resistance to global-scale stressors such as marine heatwaves. However, MPAs still suffer from limitations in design, or fail to be adequately enforced, potentially reducing their intended efficacy. Here, we address the hypothesis that the local-scale benefits resulting from MPAs moderate coral bleaching under global warming related stress.<br><br>RESULTS: Bayesian analyses reveal that bleaching is expected to occur in both larger and older MPAs when corals are under thermal stress from marine heatwaves (quantified as Degree Heating Weeks, DHW), but this is partially moderated in comparison to the effects of DHW alone. Further analyses failed to identify differences in bleaching prevalence in MPAs relative to non-MPAs for coral reefs experiencing different levels of thermal stress. Finally, no difference in temperatures where bleaching occurs between MPA and non-MPA sites was found.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that bleaching is likely to occur under global warming regardless of protected status. Thus, while protected areas have key roles for maintaining ecosystem function and local livelihoods, combatting the source of global warming remains the best way to prevent the decline of coral reefs via coral bleaching.}, }
@article {pmid35508611, year = {2022}, author = {Marquis, B and Bergeron, Y and Houle, D and Leduc, M and Rossi, S}, title = {Variability in frost occurrence under climate change and consequent risk of damage to trees of western Quebec, Canada.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {7220}, pmid = {35508611}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Quebec ; Seasons ; *Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects timings, frequency, and intensity of frost events in northern ecosystems. However, our understanding of the impacts that frost will have on growth and survival of plants is still limited. When projecting the occurrence of frost, the internal variability and the different underlying physical formulations are two major sources of uncertainty of climate models. We use 50 climate simulations produced by a single-initial large climate ensemble and five climate simulations produced by different pairs of global and regional climate models based on the concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) over a latitudinal transect covering the temperate and boreal ecosystems of western Quebec, Canada, during 1955-2099 to provide a first-order estimate of the relative importance of these two sources of uncertainty on the occurrence of frost, i.e. when air temperature is < 0 °C, and their potential damage to trees. The variation in the date of the last spring frost was larger by 21 days (from 46 to 25 days) for the 50 climate simulations compared to the 5 different pairs of climate models. When considering these two sources of uncertainty in an eco-physiological model simulating the timings of budbreak for trees of northern environment, results show that 20% of climate simulations expect that trees will be exposed to frost even in 2090. Thus, frost damage to trees remains likely under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid35503479, year = {2022}, author = {Gudko, V and Usatov, A and Denisenko, Y and Duplii, N and Azarin, K}, title = {Dependence of maize yield on hydrothermal factors in various agro-climatic zones of the Rostov region of Russia in the context of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {7}, pages = {1461-1472}, pmid = {35503479}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {0852-2020-0029//Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Reactive Oxygen Species ; Russia ; Temperature ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Trends in mean monthly temperature and precipitation during the growing season and their effects on the maize yield were analyzed at the Zimovnikovsky (Zim) and Rostov (Ros) state variety plots (SVPs), located in different agro-climatic zones of the Rostov region. For these two SVPs, in the period of 1975-2019, the Mann-Kendall test showed a statistically significant increase (p < 0.05) in mean temperature (0.70 and 0.52 °C/decade) and a trend of decreased total precipitation (- 14.81 and - 10.40 mm/decade) during the maize growing season. The dependence of the maize yield on hydrothermal factors was estimated for the period of 2011-2019 using the Pearson correlation coefficient (p < 0.05). The mean temperature in September at Zim negatively (r = - 0.78), and in June at Ros positively (r = 0.77) correlated with yield, which explained, according to the value of the coefficient of determination (R[2]), up to 60.7% and 58.7%, respectively, of the interannual variability of the maize yield. The precipitation in July at the Zim and Ros positively correlated (r = 0.75 and r = 0.71) with yield and explained up to 55.9% and 50.6%, respectively, of the interannual variability of the maize yield. The total amount of precipitation during the growing season at Zim was the dominant factor, explaining up to 75.7% of the interannual variability of maize yield. The continuation of the observed climatic trends during the growing season could lead in the next decade to both a decrease in the maize yield by an average of 0.25 t/ha at Zim and an increase in the maize yield by an average of 0.42 t/ha at Ros.}, }
@article {pmid35502001, year = {2022}, author = {Dickson, K and Cooper, K and Gardiner, MD}, title = {Perspectives on climate change: can hand surgery go carbon neutral?.}, journal = {The Journal of hand surgery, European volume}, volume = {47}, number = {9}, pages = {979-982}, doi = {10.1177/17531934221096786}, pmid = {35502001}, issn = {2043-6289}, mesh = {*Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Hand/surgery ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35500118, year = {2022}, author = {Chen, J and Montañez, IP and Zhang, S and Isson, TT and Macarewich, SI and Planavsky, NJ and Zhang, F and Rauzi, S and Daviau, K and Yao, L and Qi, YP and Wang, Y and Fan, JX and Poulsen, CJ and Anbar, AD and Shen, SZ and Wang, XD}, title = {Marine anoxia linked to abrupt global warming during Earth's penultimate icehouse.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {19}, pages = {e2115231119}, pmid = {35500118}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Hypoxia ; Oceans and Seas ; *Seawater ; }, abstract = {Piecing together the history of carbon (C) perturbation events throughout Earth’s history has provided key insights into how the Earth system responds to abrupt warming. Previous studies, however, focused on short-term warming events that were superimposed on longer-term greenhouse climate states. Here, we present an integrated proxy (C and uranium [U] isotopes and paleo CO2) and multicomponent modeling approach to investigate an abrupt C perturbation and global warming event (∼304 Ma) that occurred during a paleo-glacial state. We report pronounced negative C and U isotopic excursions coincident with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 partial pressure and a biodiversity nadir. The isotopic excursions can be linked to an injection of ∼9,000 Gt of organic matter–derived C over ∼300 kyr and to near 20% of areal extent of seafloor anoxia. Earth system modeling indicates that widespread anoxic conditions can be linked to enhanced thermocline stratification and increased nutrient fluxes during this global warming within an icehouse.}, }
@article {pmid35499999, year = {2022}, author = {, }, title = {Expression of Concern: A Global Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Management Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Cropland Soils.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {e0268102}, pmid = {35499999}, issn = {1932-6203}, }
@article {pmid35499659, year = {2022}, author = {Rosa, LH and Ogaki, MB and Lirio, JM and Vieira, R and Coria, SH and Pinto, OHB and Carvalho-Silva, M and Convey, P and Rosa, CA and Câmara, PEAS}, title = {Fungal diversity in a sediment core from climate change impacted Boeckella Lake, Hope Bay, north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula assessed using metabarcoding.}, journal = {Extremophiles : life under extreme conditions}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {16}, pmid = {35499659}, issn = {1433-4909}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Bays ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Fungi/genetics ; *Lakes ; }, abstract = {We studied the fungal DNA present in a lake sediment core obtained from Trinity Peninsula, Hope Bay, north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula, using metabarcoding through high-throughput sequencing (HTS). Sequences obtained were assigned to 146 amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) primarily representing unknown fungi, followed by the phyla Ascomycota, Rozellomycota, Basidiomycota, Chytridiomycota and Mortierellomycota. The most abundant taxa were assigned to Fungal sp., Pseudeurotium hygrophilum, Rozellomycota sp. 1, Pseudeurotiaceae sp. 1 and Chytridiomycota sp. 1. The majority of the DNA reads, representing 40 ASVs, could only be assigned at higher taxonomic levels and may represent taxa not currently included in the sequence databases consulted and/or be previously undescribed fungi. Different sections of the core were characterized by high sequence diversity, richness and moderate ecological dominance indices. The assigned diversity was dominated by cosmopolitan cold-adapted fungi, including known saprotrophic, plant and animal pathogenic and symbiotic taxa. Despite the overall dominance of Ascomycota and Basidiomycota and psychrophilic Mortierellomycota, members of the cryptic phyla Rozellomycota and Chytridiomycota were also detected in abundance. As Boeckella Lake may cease to exist in approaching decades due the effects of local climatic changes, it also an important location for the study of the impacts of these changes on Antarctic microbial diversity.}, }
@article {pmid35498552, year = {2022}, author = {Pozio, E}, title = {The impact of globalization and climate change on Trichinella spp. epidemiology.}, journal = {Food and waterborne parasitology}, volume = {27}, number = {}, pages = {e00154}, pmid = {35498552}, issn = {2405-6766}, abstract = {The main reservoir hosts of nematodes of the genus Trichinella are wild carnivores, although most human infections are caused by the consumption of pork. This group of zoonotic parasites completes the entire natural life cycle within the host organism. However, there is an important phase of the cycle that has only been highlighted in recent years and which concerns the permanence of the infecting larvae in the striated muscles of the host carcasses waiting to be ingested by a new host. To survive in this unique biological niche, Trichinella spp. larvae have developed an anaerobic metabolism for their survival in rotting carcasses and, for some species, a resistance to freezing for months or years in cold regions. Climate changes with increasingly temperatures and reduction of environmental humidity lower the survival time of larvae in host carcasses. In addition, environmental changes affect the biology and ecology of the main host species, reducing their number and age composition due to natural habitat fragmentation caused by increasing human settlements, extensive monocultures, increasing number of food animals, and reduction of trophic chains and biodiversity. All of these factors lead to a reduction in biological and environmental complexity that is the key to the natural host-parasite balance. In conclusion, Trichinella nematodes can be considered as an indicator of a health natural ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid35491908, year = {2022}, author = {Yuan, S and Lu, H}, title = {Examining a conceptual framework of aggressive and humorous styles in science YouTube videos about climate change and vaccination.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {31}, number = {7}, pages = {921-939}, doi = {10.1177/09636625221091490}, pmid = {35491908}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Communication ; Humans ; Intention ; *Social Media ; United States ; Vaccination ; }, abstract = {The current study investigated how individuals process aggressive and humorous video messages communicating childhood vaccination and climate change. Employing psychological reactance, message discounting and expectancy violation, we built a theoretical model that explains the effects of communication styles on individuals' activism intentions. Two online experiments in the United States (N = 441 and N = 533) using self-created videos on the topics of childhood vaccination and climate change were conducted to examine this model. The results showed that both perceived aggressiveness and humorousness of the videos led to higher message discounting, which then resulted in stronger activism intentions. Perceived aggressiveness led to higher expectancy violation, while perceived humorousness led to lower expectancy violation, which negatively affected activism intentions. The role played by psychological reactance was inconsistent across the two contexts. The findings provide theoretical implications for understanding how individuals process aggressive and humorous communication styles, especially in relation to discussions on science issues.}, }
@article {pmid35491448, year = {2022}, author = {Tang, YM and Qiu, SN and Li, QY and Di, GL and Wang, JL and Sun, HX}, title = {Simulated global climate change benefits the nutritive value of oat grass.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {846-853}, doi = {10.1111/plb.13432}, pmid = {35491448}, issn = {1438-8677}, support = {31973001//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; XDA26040202//Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Avena/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Minerals ; Nutritive Value ; }, abstract = {Numerous data demonstrate that global climate change affects crop yield and quality. However, the effect of climate change on the nutritive value of forage crops remains unclear. Oat grass (Avena sativa L.) was used as a representative forage crop to understand changes in yield and chemical composition. The growth of oat grass under elevated temperature and CO2 conditions was simulated in a 51-day growth experiment inside OTCs. The oat grass was harvested during the heading period and yield, nutrient content, macro- and micro-mineral content and in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) determined. The fresh and dry yield, mineral P and Fe content and IVDMD of oat grass increased under increased CO2 concentrations (P < 0.05). As temperature increased, dry matter yield and soluble sugar content decreased and the content of Na, Mg, P, S, Ca, Mn, Fe, Cu and Zn increased (P < 0.05), while IVDMD was not significantly affected. Under the interaction of increasing CO2 and temperature, the content of Mg, P, S, Ca, Mn and IVDMD of oat grass increased (P < 0.05); however, there was no significant effect on yield. Climate change may result in oat grass containing more digestible nutrients and minerals for ruminants.}, }
@article {pmid35489515, year = {2022}, author = {Hidalgo-Galvez, MD and Barkaoui, K and Volaire, F and Matías, L and Cambrollé, J and Fernández-Rebollo, P and Carbonero, MD and Pérez-Ramos, IM}, title = {Can trees buffer the impact of climate change on pasture production and digestibility of Mediterranean dehesas?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {835}, number = {}, pages = {155535}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155535}, pmid = {35489515}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Grassland ; Plants ; Soil ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Sustainability and functioning of silvopastoral ecosystems are being threatened by the forecasted warmer and drier environments in the Mediterranean region. Scattered trees of these ecosystems could potentially mitigate the impact of climate change on herbaceous plant community but this issue has not yet tested experimentally. We carried out a field manipulative experiment of increased temperature (+2-3 °C) using Open Top Chambers and rainfall reduction (30%) through rain-exclusion shelters to evaluate how net primary productivity and digestibility respond to climate change over three consecutive years, and to test whether scattered trees could buffer the effects of higher aridity in Mediterranean dehesas. First, we observed that herbaceous communities located beneath tree canopy were less productive (351 g/m[2]) than in open grassland (493 g/m[2]) but had a higher digestibility (44% and 41%, respectively), likely promoted by tree shade and the higher soil fertility of this habitat. Second, both habitats responded similarly to climate change in terms of net primary productivity, with a 33% increase under warming and a 13% decrease under reduced rainfall. In contrast, biomass digestibility decreased under increased temperatures (-7.5%), since warming enhanced the fiber and lignin content and decreased the crude protein content of aerial biomass. This warming-induced effect on biomass digestibility only occurred in open grasslands, suggesting a buffering role of trees in mitigating the impact of climate change. Third, warming did not only affect these ecosystem processes in a direct way but also indirectly via changes in plant functional composition. Our findings suggest that climate change will alter both the quantity and quality of pasture production, with expected warmer conditions increasing net primary productivity but at the expense of reducing digestibility. This negative effect of warming on digestibility might be mitigated by scattered trees, highlighting the importance of implementing strategies and suitable management to control tree density in these ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid35489093, year = {2022}, author = {Capparelli, MV and McNamara, JC and Thurman, CL and Pérez-Ceballos, R and Gómez-Ponce, MA and Cardoso-Mohedano, JG and Moulatlet, GM}, title = {Can tolerances of multiple stressors and calculated safety margins in fiddler crabs predict responses to extreme environmental conditions resulting from climate change?.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {179}, number = {}, pages = {113674}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.113674}, pmid = {35489093}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; *Brachyura/physiology ; Climate Change ; Salinity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {To comprehend mangrove crab responses to predicted global climate changes, we assessed submersion and desiccation survival durations and salinity tolerances and upper thermal limits in fiddler crabs from Isla del Carmen, Yucatán Peninsula. Based on their tolerances of extreme ambient conditions, we also calculated safety margins using abiotic monitoring data. The two most terrestrial species, Minuca rapax and Leptuca panacea, exhibited submersion tolerances of from 22 to 40 h, and desiccation tolerances of from 30 to 55 h; LC50's were ≈45‰S and UT50's were ≈40 °C. The two least terrestrial species, M. vocator and L. speciosa, were less tolerant of all experimental challenges, showing submersion and desiccation tolerances of <6 h, and LC50's of 36‰S and UT50's of 38 °C. While these fiddler crabs inhabit niches closer to their salinity and desiccation/submersion tolerances than to their temperature limits, all are clearly vulnerable to the multiple stressors that accompany anticipated global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35488802, year = {2022}, author = {Resnik, DB}, title = {Environmental justice and climate change policies.}, journal = {Bioethics}, volume = {36}, number = {7}, pages = {735-741}, pmid = {35488802}, issn = {1467-8519}, support = {ZIA ES102646/ImNIH/Intramural NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Justice ; Humans ; Policy ; Policy Making ; *Social Justice ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an environmental justice issue because it is likely to cause disproportionate harm to low-income countries and low-income populations in higher-income countries. While climate change mitigation and adaptation policies may be able to minimize these harms, they could make them worse unless they are developed and implemented with an eye toward promoting justice and fairness. Those who view climate change as an environmental justice issue should be wary of endorsing policies that sound like they promote the cause of social and economic justice, but in fact do not. While climate change policies may help to mitigate the effects of climate change on poor people, there is no guarantee that they will be just at the local, national, or global level. Those who care about global climate justice must remain actively engaged in policy formation and implementation to ensure that justice does not get shortchanged in the response to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid35488493, year = {2022}, author = {Liu, H and Ye, Q and Simpson, KJ and Cui, E and Xia, J}, title = {Can evolutionary history predict plant plastic responses to climate change?.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {235}, number = {3}, pages = {1260-1271}, doi = {10.1111/nph.18194}, pmid = {35488493}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Nitrogen ; Phylogeny ; Plant Leaves ; *Plants/genetics ; }, abstract = {Plant plastic responses are critical to the adaptation and survival of species under climate change, but whether they are constrained by evolutionary history (phylogeny) is largely unclear. Plant leaf traits are key in determining plants' performance in different environments, and if these traits and their variation are phylogenetically dependent, predictions could be made to identify species vulnerable to climate change. We compiled data on three leaf traits (photosynthetic rate, specific leaf area, and leaf nitrogen content) and their variation under four environmental change scenarios (warming, drought, elevated CO2 , or nitrogen addition) for 434 species, from 210 manipulation experiments. We found phylogenetic signal in the three traits but not in their variation under the four scenarios. This indicates that closely related species show similar traits but that their plastic responses could not be predicted from species relatedness under environmental change. Meanwhile, phylogeny weakened the slopes but did not change the directions of conventional pairwise trait relationships, suggesting that co-evolved leaf trait pairs have consistent responses under contrasting environmental conditions. Phylogeny can identify lineages rich in species showing similar traits and predict their relationships under climate change, but the degree of plant phenotypic variation does not vary consistently across evolutionary clades.}, }
@article {pmid35488161, year = {2022}, author = {Islam, MM and Chowdhury, MAM and Begum, RA and Amir, AA}, title = {Correction to: A bibliometric analysis on the research trends of climate change effects on economic vulnerability.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {39}, pages = {59316}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-022-20524-3}, pmid = {35488161}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid35488120, year = {2022}, author = {Lyam, PT and Duque-Lazo, J and Hauenschild, F and Schnitzler, J and Muellner-Riehl, AN and Greve, M and Ndangalasi, H and Myburgh, A and Durka, W}, title = {Climate change will disproportionally affect the most genetically diverse lineages of a widespread African tree species.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {7035}, pmid = {35488120}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Variation ; Humans ; Phylogeography ; *Trees/genetics ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is proceeding at an alarming rate with major ecological and genetic consequences for biodiversity, particularly in drylands. The response of species to climate change may differ between intraspecific genetic groups, with major implications for conservation. We used molecular data from 10 nuclear and two chloroplast genomes to identify phylogeographic groups within 746 individuals from 29 populations of Senegalia senegal, a savannah tree species in sub-Saharan Africa. Three phylogroups are identified corresponding to Sudano-Sahelian, Zambezian and Southern African biogeographic regions in West, East and Southern Africa. Genetic diversity was highest in Southern and Zambesian and lowest in the Sudano-Sahelian phylogroups. Using species distribution modeling, we infer highly divergent future distributions of the phylogroups under three climate change scenarios. Climate change will lead to severe reductions of distribution area of the genetically diverse Zambezian (- 41-- 54%) and Southern (- 63-- 82%) phylogroups, but to an increase for the genetically depauperate Sudano-Sahelian (+ 7- + 26%) phylogroups. This study improves our understanding of the impact of climate change on the future distribution of this species. This knowledge is particularly useful for biodiversity management as the conservation of genetic resources needs to be considered in complementary strategies of in-situ conservation and assisted migration.}, }
@article {pmid35486362, year = {2022}, author = {Coverdale, J and Seritan, AL and Brenner, AM}, title = {Calling to Action Our Personal Behaviors in Mitigating Climate Change.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {547-550}, pmid = {35486362}, issn = {1545-7230}, }
@article {pmid35484346, year = {2022}, author = {Gilbert, N}, title = {Climate change will force new animal encounters - and boost viral outbreaks.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {605}, number = {7908}, pages = {20}, pmid = {35484346}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control ; Public Health ; *Virus Diseases/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid35483403, year = {2022}, author = {Carlson, CJ and Albery, GF and Merow, C and Trisos, CH and Zipfel, CM and Eskew, EA and Olival, KJ and Ross, N and Bansal, S}, title = {Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {607}, number = {7919}, pages = {555-562}, pmid = {35483403}, issn = {1476-4687}, support = {NSF BII-2021909//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; NSF DBI-1639145//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; BII-2021909//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; PREDICT//United States Agency for International Development (U.S. Agency for International Development)/ ; }, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Chiroptera/virology ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; *Mammals/classification/virology ; Phylogeography ; Risk Assessment ; Tropical Climate ; *Viral Zoonoses/epidemiology/transmission/virology ; *Viruses/isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals[1,2]. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife[3,4]. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.}, }
@article {pmid35482718, year = {2022}, author = {Hernandez, K and Madeira, C}, title = {The impact of climate change on economic output across industries in Chile.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {e0266811}, pmid = {35482718}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Chile ; *Climate Change ; *Industry ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Using region-industry panel data for Chile over the period 1985 to 2017, we find no effect of precipitation changes on GDP and a negative impact of higher summer temperatures on Agriculture-Silviculture and Fishing. An increase of one Celsius degree in the month of January implies a 3% and 12% GDP reduction in Agriculture and Fishing, respectively. There is also a negative effect of higher temperatures in January on Construction and Electricity, Gas, and Water. Our analysis suggests that climate change did not have a big impact on the Chilean economy during this period. Stress test exercises that select only the negative and statistically significant coefficients imply that the Chilean GDP would fall between -14.8% and -9% in 2050 and between -29.6% and -16.8% in 2100, according to our model.}, }
@article {pmid35482218, year = {2022}, author = {Saad-Hussein, A and Ramadan, HK and Bareedy, A and Elwakil, R}, title = {Role of Climate Change in Changing Hepatic Health Maps.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {299-314}, pmid = {35482218}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Vectors ; Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Liver Diseases/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change (CC) is currently responsible for global weather extremes. These weather extremes could contribute to changes in the pattern of health problems. The purpose of this review is to discuss the role of CC on remapping of hepatic diseases and the mechanisms of re-mapping.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: CC was found to have a major influence on the distribution and severity of hepatic diseases, such as outbreaks of vector-borne, water or food-borne, parasitic diseases, re-emerging of disappeared diseases, or emerging of new forms of infectious agents. Migration of infected people from endemic areas due to the CC disasters results in rapid dissemination of infectious diseases that leads to outbreaks or endemicity of diseases in new areas. CC could cause increasing chemical emissions, or change in its biodegradability, or restriction in its dispersion, such as PM, PAHs, heavy metals, mycotoxins, and aquatic toxins. Increase in the concentrations of these chemicals may have significant impacts in changing the health map of hepatic toxicity and liver cancer. The current review confirms the role of CC in changing the pattern of several liver health problems and remapping of these problems in several regions of the world. This review could be of high importance to the health decision-makers as an early alarm and prediction of hepatic health problems with the projected CC.}, }
@article {pmid35477762, year = {2022}, author = {Free, CM and Cabral, RB and Froehlich, HE and Battista, W and Ojea, E and O'Reilly, E and Palardy, JE and García Molinos, J and Siegel, KJ and Arnason, R and Juinio-Meñez, MA and Fabricius, K and Turley, C and Gaines, SD}, title = {Expanding ocean food production under climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {605}, number = {7910}, pages = {490-496}, pmid = {35477762}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Aquaculture ; *Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; Seafood ; }, abstract = {As the human population and demand for food grow[1], the ocean will be called on to provide increasing amounts of seafood. Although fisheries reforms and advances in offshore aquaculture (hereafter 'mariculture') could increase production[2], the true future of seafood depends on human responses to climate change[3]. Here we investigated whether coordinated reforms in fisheries and mariculture could increase seafood production per capita under climate change. We find that climate-adaptive fisheries reforms will be necessary but insufficient to maintain global seafood production per capita, even with aggressive reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions. However, the potential for sustainable mariculture to increase seafood per capita is vast and could increase seafood production per capita under all but the most severe emissions scenario. These increases are contingent on fisheries reforms, continued advances in feed technology and the establishment of effective mariculture governance and best practices. Furthermore, dramatically curbing emissions is essential for reducing inequities, increasing reform efficacy and mitigating risks unaccounted for in our analysis. Although climate change will challenge the ocean's ability to meet growing food demands, the ocean could produce more food than it does currently through swift and ambitious action to reduce emissions, reform capture fisheries and expand sustainable mariculture operations.}, }
@article {pmid35477448, year = {2022}, author = {Krsulovic, FAM and Moulton, TP and Lima, M and Jaksic, F}, title = {Epidemic malaria dynamics in Ethiopia: the role of self-limiting, poverty, HIV, climate change and human population growth.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {135}, pmid = {35477448}, issn = {1475-2875}, support = {319001//fondecyt/ ; PQ 302121/2019-6//cnpq/ ; FB0002//anid pia/basal/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ethiopia/epidemiology ; *HIV Infections/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; *Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology ; Plasmodium falciparum ; Population Growth ; Poverty ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the changes of malaria cases in African highlands were driven by climate change. Recently, a study claimed that the malaria cases (Plasmodium falciparum) in Oromia (Ethiopia) were related to minimum temperature. Critics highlighted that other variables could be involved in the dynamics of the malaria. The literature mentions that beyond climate change, trends in malaria cases could be involved with HIV, human population size, poverty, investments in health control programmes, among others.<br><br>METHODS: Population ecologists have developed a simple framework, which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behaviour of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependent (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by the previous population size. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. This study explores the dynamics of malaria cases (Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax) in Oromia region in Ethiopia and explores the interaction between minimum temperature, HIV, poverty, human population size and social instability.<br><br>RESULTS: The results support that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class, and a weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Poverty, HIV, population size could interact to force malaria models parameters explaining the dynamics malaria observed at Ethiopia from 1985 to 2007.}, }
@article {pmid35476382, year = {2021}, author = {Hussaini, N and Coughlan, L and Flynn, D and Miller, P and Daly, TK and Crowley, B and Hussaini, A}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Healthcare.}, journal = {Irish medical journal}, volume = {114}, number = {7}, pages = {422}, pmid = {35476382}, issn = {0332-3102}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Health Facilities ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35475552, year = {2022}, author = {van Woesik, R and Shlesinger, T and Grottoli, AG and Toonen, RJ and Vega Thurber, R and Warner, ME and Marie Hulver, A and Chapron, L and McLachlan, RH and Albright, R and Crandall, E and DeCarlo, TM and Donovan, MK and Eirin-Lopez, J and Harrison, HB and Heron, SF and Huang, D and Humanes, A and Krueger, T and Madin, JS and Manzello, D and McManus, LC and Matz, M and Muller, EM and Rodriguez-Lanetty, M and Vega-Rodriguez, M and Voolstra, CR and Zaneveld, J}, title = {Coral-bleaching responses to climate change across biological scales.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {14}, pages = {4229-4250}, pmid = {35475552}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {The global impacts of climate change are evident in every marine ecosystem. On coral reefs, mass coral bleaching and mortality have emerged as ubiquitous responses to ocean warming, yet one of the greatest challenges of this epiphenomenon is linking information across scientific disciplines and spatial and temporal scales. Here we review some of the seminal and recent coral-bleaching discoveries from an ecological, physiological, and molecular perspective. We also evaluate which data and processes can improve predictive models and provide a conceptual framework that integrates measurements across biological scales. Taking an integrative approach across biological and spatial scales, using for example hierarchical models to estimate major coral-reef processes, will not only rapidly advance coral-reef science but will also provide necessary information to guide decision-making and conservation efforts. To conserve reefs, we encourage implementing mesoscale sanctuaries (thousands of km[2]) that transcend national boundaries. Such networks of protected reefs will provide reef connectivity, through larval dispersal that transverse thermal environments, and genotypic repositories that may become essential units of selection for environmentally diverse locations. Together, multinational networks may be the best chance corals have to persist through climate change, while humanity struggles to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero.}, }
@article {pmid35474920, year = {2022}, author = {Kerbl, R}, title = {[Climate change-The anxiety of the young].}, journal = {Monatsschrift Kinderheilkunde : Organ der Deutschen Gesellschaft fur Kinderheilkunde}, volume = {170}, number = {7}, pages = {579-580}, doi = {10.1007/s00112-022-01483-y}, pmid = {35474920}, issn = {0026-9298}, }
@article {pmid35472357, year = {2022}, author = {Beltrán-Sanz, N and Raggio, J and Gonzalez, S and Dal Grande, F and Prost, S and Green, A and Pintado, A and Sancho, LG}, title = {Climate change leads to higher NPP at the end of the century in the Antarctic Tundra: Response patterns through the lens of lichens.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {835}, number = {}, pages = {155495}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155495}, pmid = {35472357}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Chlorophyll A ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Lichens/physiology ; Photosynthesis ; Tundra ; *Unionidae ; }, abstract = {Poikilohydric autotrophs are the main colonizers of the permanent ice-free areas in the Antarctic tundra biome. Global climate warming and the small human footprint in this ecosystem make it especially vulnerable to abrupt changes. Elucidating the effects of climate change on the Antarctic ecosystem is challenging because it mainly comprises poikilohydric species, which are greatly influenced by microtopographic factors. In the present study, we investigated the potential effects of climate change on the metabolic activity and net primary photosynthesis (NPP) in the widespread lichen species Usnea aurantiaco-atra. Long-term monitoring of chlorophyll a fluorescence in the field was combined with photosynthetic performance measurements in laboratory experiments in order to establish the daily response patterns under biotic and abiotic factors at micro- and macro-scales. Our findings suggest that macroclimate is a poor predictor of NPP, thereby indicating that microclimate is the main driver due to the strong effects of microtopographic factors on cryptogams. Metabolic activity is also crucial for estimating the NPP, which is highly dependent on the type, distribution, and duration of the hydration sources available throughout the year. Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, metabolic activity will increase slightly compared with that at present due to the increased precipitation events predicted in MIROC5. Temperature is highlighted as the main driver for NPP projections, and thus climate warming will lead to an average increase in NPP of 167-171% at the end of the century. However, small changes in other drivers such as light and relative humidity may strongly modify the metabolic activity patterns of poikilohydric autotrophs, and thus their NPP. Species with similar physiological response ranges to the species investigated in the present study are expected to behave in a similar manner provided that liquid water is available.}, }
@article {pmid35470521, year = {2022}, author = {Arifanti, VB and Kauffman, JB and Subarno,  and Ilman, M and Tosiani, A and Novita, N}, title = {Contributions of mangrove conservation and restoration to climate change mitigation in Indonesia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {15}, pages = {4523-4538}, pmid = {35470521}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Mangrove forests are important carbon sinks and this is especially true for Indonesia where about 24% of the world's mangroves exist. Unfortunately, vast expanses of these mangroves have been deforested, degraded or converted to other uses resulting in significant greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this study was to quantify the climate change mitigation potential of mangrove conservation and restoration in Indonesia. We calculated the emission factors from the dominant land uses in mangroves, determined mangrove deforestation rates and quantified the total emissions and the potential emission reductions that could be achieved from mangrove conservation and restoration. Based upon our analysis of the carbon stocks and emissions from land use in mangroves we found: (1) Indonesia's mangrove ecosystem carbon stocks are amongst the highest of any tropical forest type; (2) mangrove deforestation results in greenhouse gas emissions that far exceed that of upland tropical deforestation; (3) in the last decade the rates of deforestation in Indonesian mangroves have remained high; and (4) conservation and restoration of mangroves promise to sequester significant quantities of carbon. While mangroves comprise only ≈2.6% of Indonesia's total forest area, their degradation and deforestation accounted for ≈10% of total greenhouse gas emissions arising from the forestry sector. The large source of greenhouse gas emissions from a relatively small proportion of the forest area underscores the value for inclusion of mangroves as a natural climate solution (NCS). Mangrove conservation is far more effective than mangrove restoration in carbon emissions reductions and an efficient pathway to achieve Indonesia's nationally determined contribution (NDC) targets. The potential emission reduction from halting deforestation of primary and secondary mangroves coupled with restoration activities could result in an emission reduction equivalent to 8% of Indonesia's 2030 NDC emission reduction targets from the forestry sector.}, }
@article {pmid35468138, year = {2022}, author = {Nguyen, TVH}, title = {Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {e0264997}, pmid = {35468138}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; Fishes ; Vietnam ; }, abstract = {Fisheries are forecasted to shrink in the tropics due to climate change. In Vietnam, fisheries are a pro-poor economic sector and essential nutrition source; however, welfares of producers and consumers in the climate change context are not well understood. While most studies focus on the gains or losses of total products and revenues, this paper pays additional attention to the changes in surpluses of market players in the long run. A combination of the production function, demand and supply functions, and partial equilibrium analysis is employed to measure the production and welfare impacts based on time series data from 1976 to 2018 and a Vietnam household living standards survey in 2018. The results show that relative to the present, catch yield is likely to reduce 35%-45% by mid-century and 45%-80% by the end of the century. Consumers may lose their surplus of 7-9 billion USD (PPP, 2018) by 2035 and 10-18 billion USD by 2065 due to supply reduction, while producers may gain additional profit of 3.5-4.5 billion USD by 2035 and 5-9 billion USD by 2065 owing to a price increase. The research findings suggest that Vietnam could impose measures to limit capture effort, as set out in the Law of Fisheries 2017, without harming fisher welfare. The expansion of aquaculture could reduce the gap between supply and demand of wild fish to mitigate consumer welfare loss; however, this impact is still ambiguous.}, }
@article {pmid35467910, year = {2022}, author = {Fischer, H and Huff, M and Said, N}, title = {Polarized climate change beliefs: No evidence for science literacy driving motivated reasoning in a U.S. national study.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {77}, number = {7}, pages = {822-835}, doi = {10.1037/amp0000982}, pmid = {35467910}, issn = {1935-990X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Literacy ; Problem Solving ; }, abstract = {A substantial literature shows that public polarization over climate change in the U.S. is most pronounced among the science literate. A dominant explanation for this phenomenon is that science literacy amplifies motivated reasoning, the tendency to interpret evidence such that it confirms prior beliefs. The present study tests the biasing account of science literacy in a study among the U.S. population that investigated both interpretation of climate change evidence and repeated belief-updating. Results replicated the typical correlational pattern of political polarization as a function of science literacy. However, results delivered little support for the core causal claim of the biasing account-that science literacy drives motivated reasoning. Hence, these results speak against a mechanism whereby science literacy driving motivated reasoning could explain polarized climate change beliefs among the science literate. This study adds to our growing understanding of the role of science literacy for public beliefs about contested science. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).}, }
@article {pmid35466592, year = {2022}, author = {Iglesias, A}, title = {On the risk of climate change on agriculture and water resources.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {595-596}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4606}, pmid = {35466592}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Water Resources ; Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid35465308, year = {2022}, author = {Cheng, SH and Costedoat, S and Sterling, EJ and Chamberlain, C and Jagadish, A and Lichtenthal, P and Nowakowski, AJ and Taylor, A and Tinsman, J and Canty, SWJ and Holland, MB and Jones, KW and Mills, M and Morales-Hidalgo, D and Sprenkle-Hyppolite, S and Wiggins, M and Mascia, MB and Muñoz Brenes, CL}, title = {What evidence exists on the links between natural climate solutions and climate change mitigation outcomes in subtropical and tropical terrestrial regions? A systematic map protocol.}, journal = {Environmental evidence}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {15}, pmid = {35465308}, issn = {2047-2382}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Natural climate solutions (NCS)-actions to conserve, restore, and modify natural and modified ecosystems to increase carbon storage or avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-are increasingly regarded as important pathways for climate change mitigation, while contributing to our global conservation efforts, overall planetary resilience, and sustainable development goals. Recently, projections posit that terrestrial-based NCS can potentially capture or avoid the emission of at least 11 Gt (gigatons) of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, or roughly encompassing one third of the emissions reductions needed to meet the Paris Climate Agreement goals by 2030. NCS interventions also purport to provide co-benefits such as improved productivity and livelihoods from sustainable natural resource management, protection of locally and culturally important natural areas, and downstream climate adaptation benefits. Attention on implementing NCS to address climate change across global and national agendas has grown-however, clear understanding of which types of NCS interventions have undergone substantial study versus those that require additional evidence is still lacking. This study aims to conduct a systematic map to collate and describe the current state, distribution, and methods used for evidence on the links between NCS interventions and climate change mitigation outcomes within tropical and sub-tropical terrestrial ecosystems. Results of this study can be used to inform program and policy design and highlight critical knowledge gaps where future evaluation, research, and syntheses are needed.<br><br>METHODS: To develop this systematic map, we will search two bibliographic databases (including 11 indices) and 67 organization websites, backward citation chase from 39 existing evidence syntheses, and solicit information from key informants. All searches will be conducted in English and encompass subtropical and tropical terrestrial ecosystems (forests, grasslands, mangroves, agricultural areas). Search results will be screened at title and abstract, and full text levels, recording both the number of excluded articles and reasons for exclusion. Key meta-data from included articles will be coded and reported in a narrative review that will summarize trends in the evidence base, assess gaps in knowledge, and provide insights for policy, practice, and research. The data from this systematic map will be made open access.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13750-022-00268-w.}, }
@article {pmid35462607, year = {2022}, author = {Deihimfard, R and Rahimi-Moghaddam, S and Azizi, K and Haghighat, M}, title = {Increased heat stress risk for maize in arid-based climates as affected by climate change: threats and solutions.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {7}, pages = {1365-1378}, pmid = {35462607}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Heat-Shock Response ; Iran ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Heat stress in combination with drought has become the biggest concern and threat for maize yield production, especially in arid and hot regions. Accordingly, different optimal solutions should be considered in order to maintain maize production and reduce the risk of heat stress under the changing climate. In the current study, the risk of heat stress across Iranian maize agro-ecosystems was analyzed in terms of both intensity and frequency. The study areas comprised 16 provinces and 24 locations classified into five climate categories: arid and hot, arid and temperate, semi-arid and hot, semi-arid and temperate, and semi-arid and cold. The impact of heat stress on maize under a future climate was based on a 5-multi-model ensemble under two optimistic and pessimistic emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) for 2040-2070 using the APSIM crop model. Simulation results illustrated that in the period of 2040-2070, intensity and the frequency of heat stress events increased by 2.37 °C and 79.7%, respectively, during maize flowering time compared to the baseline. The risk of heat stress would be almost 100% in hot regions in the future climate under current management practices, mostly because of the increasing high-risk window for heat stress which will result in a yield reduction of 0.83 t ha[-1]. However, under optimal management practices,farmers will economically obtain acceptable yields (6.6 t ha[-1]). The results also indicated that the high-risk windows in the future will be lengthening from 12 to 33 days in different climate types. Rising temperatures in cold regions as a result of global warming would provide better climate situations for maize growth, so that under optimistic emission scenarios and optimal management practices, farmers will be able to boost grain yield up to 9.2 t ha[-1]. Overall, it is concluded that farmers in hot and temperate regions need to be persuaded to choose optimal sowing dates and new maize cultivars which are well adapted to each climate to reduce heat stress risk and to shift maize production to cold regions.}, }
@article {pmid35462588, year = {2022}, author = {Baloch, ZA and Tan, Q and Fahad, S}, title = {Correction to: Analyzing farm households' perception and choice of adaptation strategies towards climate change impacts: a case study of vulnerable households in an emerging Asian region.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {38}, pages = {57317}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-022-20373-0}, pmid = {35462588}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid35462251, year = {2022}, author = {Doll, C and Polyakov, M and Pannell, DJ and Burton, MP}, title = {Rethinking urban park irrigation under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {314}, number = {}, pages = {115012}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115012}, pmid = {35462251}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Cities ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Parks, Recreational ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Climate change is forcing cities to reassess their water management practices, particularly for water-intensive applications like park irrigation. If water scarcity requires governments to deviate from current park management norms and allocate less water towards parks, it is essential that park managers design spaces that maintain community wellbeing. We apply the hedonic pricing method and use detailed park management information to assess the value of parks in a region where local climatic conditions require extensive irrigation to keep turf green, and where climate change is further constraining water supplies. Here we show that the impacts of irrigation on the value of parks differ depending on the dwelling types of the nearby housing populations that they serve. In most cases, the convention that parks have to be irrigated to deliver ecosystem services to the public is supported. However, we find that non-irrigated park areas are also valued positively by nearby apartment dwellers. Accelerating rates of urbanization and shifts towards high-density living may support the development of more diverse park options that are less water-intensive. Increased visibility of these alternative park forms, which could include more areas of native vegetation that do not require irrigation, may subsequently influence public expectations for landscape design.}, }
@article {pmid35461417, year = {2022}, author = {Ouyang, X and Pan, J and Wu, Z and Chen, A}, title = {Predicting the potential distribution of Campsis grandiflora in China under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {42}, pages = {63629-63639}, pmid = {35461417}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2019C02024//the Key Research and Development Program of Zhejiang Province/ ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Because the research on the geographical distribution of species significantly influences people's understanding of species protection and utilization, it is important to study the influence of climate change on plants' geographical distribution patterns. Based on 166 distribution records and 11 climate and terrain variables, we used MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model and ArcGIS software to predict the potential distribution of Campsis grandiflora under climate change and then determined the dominant climate variables that significantly affected its geographical distribution. In our study, the area under the curve (AUC) value of the training data was 0.939, proving the accuracy of our prediction. Under current climate conditions, the area of potentially suitable habitat is 238.29 × 10[4] km[2], mainly distributed in northern, central, southern, and eastern China. The dominant variables that affect the geographical distribution of C. grandiflora are temperature, precipitation and altitude. In the future climate change scenario, the total area of suitable habitat and highly suitable habitat will increase, whereas the area of moderately suitable habitat and poorly suitable habitat will decrease. In addition, the centroid of the potentially suitable area of C. grandiflora will migrate to higher latitude and higher altitudes areas. The results could give strategic guidance for development, protection, and utilization of C. grandiflora in China.}, }
@article {pmid35460775, year = {2022}, author = {Guo, X and Liu, H and Ngosong, C and Li, B and Wang, Q and Zhou, W and Nie, M}, title = {Response of plant functional traits to nitrogen enrichment under climate change: A meta-analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {834}, number = {}, pages = {155379}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155379}, pmid = {35460775}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; *Nitrogen/analysis ; Plants ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Soil nitrogen (N) supply is essential in influencing plant functional traits and regulating plant morphological and physiological performances. The effects of N on plants can be altered by complex environmental changes. However, conflicting results have been reported on the co-effects of N and climatic variables on plant performance, which may be attributed to differences in experiment setting and approach, e.g., ecosystem, duration, plant type, and fertilizer form. To elucidate the general response of plant performance to increasing soil N availability under climate change, a global meta-analysis was conducted to synthesize 380 publications studying interactions of N enrichment and four climatic variables (e.g., elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2), drought, precipitation, and warming) on performance-related traits (e.g., size, nutrient, and fitness). Results showed that N enrichment increased shoot and root size, nutrient, and fitness of terrestrial plants. The synergistic interactions of N × eCO2 and antagonistic interactions of N × drought were found on plant overall performance (mainly on plant size), indicating that the N effects can be aggregated by eCO2 and mitigated by drought. The co-effects of N and climatic variables on plant overall performance rely on experiment approach, duration, ecosystem type, or plant functional type. Synergistic interactions of N × eCO2 and antagonistic interactions of N × drought, N × precipitation, and N × warming on plant overall performance were found mainly in greenhouse experiments and short-term experiments (duration ≤ one year), but not in the field or longer-term experiments. The results highlighted that N effects on plant performance were not isolated, but can be modified by climate changes. These findings can improve the future modeling predictions of plant performance under complex climate change and provide a fundamental basis for N management strategies to optimize plant performance in production, N nutrient, and reproduction while enabling sustainability of plant production systems.}, }
@article {pmid35459742, year = {2023}, author = {Quitmann, C and Sauerborn, R and Danquah, I and Herrmann, A}, title = {'Climate change mitigation is a hot topic, but not when it comes to hospitals': a qualitative study on hospital stakeholders' perception and sense of responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions.}, journal = {Journal of medical ethics}, volume = {49}, number = {3}, pages = {204-210}, pmid = {35459742}, issn = {1473-4257}, mesh = {Humans ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Climate Change ; Hospitals ; Perception ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Physical and mental well-being are threatened by climate change. Since hospitals in high-income countries contribute significantly to climate change through their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the medical ethics imperative of 'do no harm' imposes a responsibility on hospitals to decarbonise. We investigated hospital stakeholders' perceptions of hospitals' GHG emissions sources and the sense of responsibility for reducing GHG emissions in a hospital.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted 29 semistructured qualitative expert interviews at one of Germany's largest hospitals, Heidelberg University Hospital. Five patients, 12 clinical and 12 administrative employees on different levels were selected using purposive maximum variation sampling. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using the framework approach.<br><br>RESULTS: Concerning GHG emissions, hospital stakeholders perceived energy and waste as most relevant emission sources followed by mobility. Climate change mitigation in general was considered as important. However, in their role as patients or employees, hospital stakeholders felt less responsible for climate change mitigation. They saw providing best possible medical care to be the top priority in hospitals and were often concerned that patients' health could be jeopardised by climate change mitigation measures.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Perceptions of most important emission sources did not coincide with those in literature, highlighting the need to inform stakeholders, for instance, about pharmaceuticals as important emission source. A frequently perceived conflict between reducing emissions and providing high-quality medical care could be eased, if reducing emissions would not only be justified as a contribution to mitigation, but also as a contribution to preventing ill health-a basic principle of medical ethics.}, }
@article {pmid35458135, year = {2022}, author = {Caughey, A and Kilabuk, P and Sanguya, I and Doucette, M and Jaw, M and Allen, J and Maniapik, L and Koonoo, T and Joy, W and Shirley, J and Sargeant, JM and Møller, H and Harper, SL}, title = {Niqivut Silalu Asijjipalliajuq: Building a Community-Led Food Sovereignty and Climate Change Research Program in Nunavut, Canada.}, journal = {Nutrients}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {35458135}, issn = {2072-6643}, support = {N/A/CAPMC/CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Food Security ; Humans ; *Inuit ; Nunavut ; }, abstract = {The history of health research in Inuit communities in Canada recounts unethical and colonizing research practices. Recent decades have witnessed profound changes that have advanced ethical and community-driven research, yet much work remains. Inuit have called for research reform in Inuit Nunangat, most recently creating the National Inuit Strategy on Research (NISR) as a framework to support this work. The present study details the process undertaken to create a research program guided by the NISR to address food security, nutrition, and climate change in Inuit Nunangat. Four main elements were identified as critical to supporting the development of a meaningful and authentic community-led program of research: developing Inuit-identified research questions that are relevant and important to Inuit communities; identifying Inuit expertise to answer these questions; re-envisioning and innovating research methodologies that are meaningful to Inuit and reflect Inuit knowledge and societal values; and identifying approaches to mobilizing knowledge that can be applied to support food security and climate change adaptation. We also identify considerations for funding agencies to support the meaningful development of Inuit-led research proposals, including aligning funding with community priorities, reconsidering who the researchers are, and investing in community infrastructure. Our critical reflection on the research program development process provides insight into community-led research that can support Inuit self-determination in research, enhance local ethical conduct of research, privilege Inuit knowledge systems, and align Inuit-identified research priorities with research funding opportunities in health research. While we focus on Inuit-led research in Nunavut, Canada, these insights may be of interest more broadly to Indigenous health research.}, }
@article {pmid35457768, year = {2022}, author = {André, H and Gonzalez Holguera, J and Depoux, A and Pasquier, J and Haller, DM and Rodondi, PY and Schwarz, J and Senn, N}, title = {Talking about Climate Change and Environmental Degradation with Patients in Primary Care: A Cross-Sectional Survey on Knowledge, Potential Domains of Action and Points of View of General Practitioners.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {35457768}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Attitude of Health Personnel ; Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *General Practitioners ; Humans ; Primary Health Care ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: General practitioners (GPs) could play a role in mitigating climate change by raising awareness of its impact on human health and implementing changes to improve population health and decreasing environmental footprints. The aim of this study was to assess GPs' knowledge and perspectives about the health impacts of climate change.<br><br>METHOD: A questionnaire was sent to 1972 GPs in the French-speaking part of Switzerland. Knowledge of the impact of environmental degradations and climate change on health and willingness to address climate change with patients, to be exemplary and to act as role models were surveyed as well as demographic characteristics of GPs.<br><br>RESULTS: Respondents (N = 497) expressed a high level of self-reported knowledge regarding climate change, although it was lower for more specific topics, such as planetary health or health-environment co-benefits. Participants mostly agreed that it is necessary to adapt clinical practice to the health impacts of climate change and that they have a role in providing information on climate change and its links to human health.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Most of the GPs were concerned about environmental and climate degradation. However, this study revealed a gap between the willingness of GPs to integrate the impact of climate change on health into their clinical activities and their lack of overall knowledge and scientific evidence on effective interventions. A promising way forward may be to develop co-benefit interventions adapted to the clinical setting on diet, active mobility and connecting with nature.}, }
@article {pmid35457766, year = {2022}, author = {Hajat, S and Gampe, D and Sarsour, A and Abuzerr, S}, title = {Climate Change and Diarrhoeal Disease Burdens in the Gaza Strip, Palestine: Health Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {35457766}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Cost of Illness ; Diarrhea/epidemiology ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Gaza Strip is one of the world’s most fragile states and faces substantial public health and development challenges. Climate change is intensifying existing environmental problems, including increased water stress. We provide the first published assessment of climate impacts on diarrhoeal disease in Gaza and project future health burdens under climate change scenarios. Over 1 million acute diarrhoea cases presenting to health facilities during 2009−2020 were linked to weekly temperature and rainfall data and associations assessed using time-series regression analysis employing distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs). Models were applied to climate projections to estimate future burdens of diarrhoeal disease under 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios. There was a significantly raised risk of diarrhoeal disease associated with both mean weekly temperature above 19 °C and total weekly rainfall below 6 mm in children 0−3 years. A heat effect was also present in subjects aged > 3 years. Annual diarrhoea cases attributable to heat and low rainfall was 2209.0 and 4070.3, respectively, in 0−3-year-olds. In both age-groups, heat-related cases could rise by over 10% under a 2 °C global warming level compared to baseline, but would be limited to below 2% under a 1.5 °C scenario. Mean rises of 0.9% and 2.7% in diarrhoea cases associated with reduced rainfall are projected for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios, respectively, in 0−3-year-olds. Climate change impacts will add to the considerable development challenges already faced by the people of Gaza. Substantial health gains could be achieved if global warming is limited to 1.5 °C.}, }
@article {pmid35457530, year = {2022}, author = {Schneider, S and von Winning, A and Grüger, F and Anderer, S and Hoffner, R and Anderson, L}, title = {Physical Activity, Climate Change and Health-A Conceptual Model for Planning Public Health Action at the Organizational Level.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {35457530}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Exercise ; Humans ; Organizations ; *Public Health ; *Sports ; }, abstract = {Climate change is linked to health risks for both professional and amateur athletes. Sports organisations will need to react to these developments. The starting point for this concept paper is a summary of the sport-specific health risks currently under discussion: increasing heatwaves, growing numbers of extreme weather events, rising UV, ozone and allergen levels and the spread of infectious diseases. Based on the current state of research, a conceptual model is developed to reduce these climate-related health risks in sports at organisational level. Given the wide variety of predicted direct and indirect health risks linked to climate change, the "sports, clubs and climate change model" (SC[3] model) presented here follows a stepwise risk-specific approach using technical, organisational and person-related measures. The SC[3] model also includes cross-cutting measures that have an overarching effect comprising training, warning systems, coordination and evaluation measures. The SC[3] model makes it possible to develop prevention plans, both at national level for central associations and at the regional level of local organisations and clubs. It can be applied to typical settings (e.g., training or competition at elite or amateur levels) and target groups (e.g., athletes, spectators, referees and club officials).}, }
@article {pmid35453787, year = {2022}, author = {Mu, C and Guo, X and Chen, Y}, title = {Impact of Global Climate Change on the Distribution Range and Niche Dynamics of Eleutherodactylus planirostrish in China.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {35453787}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {U21A20192//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 31901221//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; XDB31000000//Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 2019QZKK0303//Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program/ ; }, abstract = {Species distribution models (SDMs) have become indispensable tools in risk assessment and conservation decision-making for invasive species. Eleutherodactylus planirostris has a strong dispersal ability, and the main route of introduction to new regions is likely transport via seedlings. This species is understood as one of the foremost successful invasive amphibian species with direct or indirect negative impacts in multiple regions. In this study, we used MaxEnt to assess suitable areas for this species under current and future climates globally and in China. We considered seven climatic variables, three timepoints (current, 2050, and 2070), and three CO2 emission scenarios. Annual mean temperature, precipitation of the driest month, and annual precipitation were the most important variables predicting E. planirostris occurrence. This species has a much larger suitable habitat area in China than reflected by the current distribution, so the species is likely to spread from the Pearl River Delta to surrounding areas. Under future warming, its invasive range will expand northward in China. In conclusion, this study assessed the risk of invasion of this species and made recommendations for management and prevention.}, }
@article {pmid35453751, year = {2022}, author = {Kougioumoutzis, K and Kaloveloni, A and Petanidou, T}, title = {Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Island Bees: The Aegean Archipelago.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {35453751}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {MIS 376737//European Social Fund/ ; MIS 376737//THALES (Greece)/ ; }, abstract = {Pollinators' climate change impact assessments focus mainly on mainland regions. Thus, we are unaware how island species might fare in a rapidly changing world. This is even more pressing in the Mediterranean Basin, a global biodiversity hotspot. In Greece, a regional pollinator hotspot, climate change research is in its infancy and the insect Wallacean shortfall still remains unaddressed. In a species distribution modelling framework, we used the most comprehensive occurrence database for bees in Greece to locate the bee species richness hotspots in the Aegean, and investigated whether these might shift in the future due to climate change and assessed the Natura 2000 protected areas network effectiveness. Range contractions are anticipated for most taxa, becoming more prominent over time. Species richness hotspots are currently located in the NE Aegean and in highly disturbed sites. They will shift both altitudinally and latitudinally in the future. A small proportion of these hotspots are currently included in the Natura 2000 protected areas network and this proportion is projected to decrease in the coming decades. There is likely an extinction debt present in the Aegean bee communities that could result to pollination network collapse. There is a substantial conservation gap in Greece regarding bees and a critical re-assessment of the established Greek protected areas network is needed, focusing on areas identified as bee diversity hotspots over time.}, }
@article {pmid35453699, year = {2022}, author = {Kumari, P and Wani, IA and Khan, S and Verma, S and Mushtaq, S and Gulnaz, A and Paray, BA}, title = {Modeling of Valeriana wallichii Habitat Suitability and Niche Dynamics in the Himalayan Region under Anticipated Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {35453699}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {An increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases necessitates the use of species distribution models (SDMs) in modeling suitable habitats and projecting the impact of climate change on the future range shifts of the species. The present study is based on the BIOMOD ensemble approach to map the currently suitable habitats and predict the impact of climate change on the niche shift of Valeriana wallichii. We also studied its niche dynamics using the ecospat package in R software. Values of the area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) were highly significant (>0.9), which shows that the model has run better. From 19 different bioclimatic variables, only 8 were retained after correlation, among which bio_17 (precipitation of driest quarter), bio_1 (annual mean temperature), and bio_12 (annual mean precipitation) received the highest gain. Under future climate change, the suitable habitats will be significantly contracted by −94% (under representative concentration pathway RCP 8.5 for 2070) and −80.22% (under RCP 8.5 for 2050). There is a slight increase in habitat suitability by +16.69% (RCP 4.5 for 2050) and +8.9% (RCP 8.5 for 2050) under future climate change scenarios. The equivalency and similarity tests of niche dynamics show that the habitat suitability for current and future climatic scenarios is comparable but not identical. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) analysis shows that climatic conditions will be severely affected between current and future scenarios. From this study, we conclude that the habitats of Valeriana wallichii are highly vulnerable to climate shifts. This study can be used to alleviate the threat to this plant by documenting the unexplored populations, restoring the degraded habitats through rewilding, and launching species recovery plans in the natural habitats.}, }
@article {pmid35453696, year = {2022}, author = {Charitonidou, M and Kougioumoutzis, K and Karypidou, MC and Halley, JM}, title = {'Fly to a Safer North': Distributional Shifts of the Orchid Ophrys insectifera L. Due to Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {35453696}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2359//Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation/ ; }, abstract = {Numerous orchid species around the world have already been affected by the ongoing climate change, displaying phenological alterations and considerable changes to their distributions. The fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.) is a well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, with a broad distribution across the continent. This study explores the effects of climate change on the range of O. insectifera, using a species distribution models (SDMs) framework that encompasses different climatic models and scenarios for the near- and long-term future. The species' environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards (as expected) but downhill (contrary to usual expectations) in the future. In addition, an overall range contraction is predicted under all investigated combinations of climatic models and scenarios. While this is moderate overall, it includes some regions of severe loss and other areas with major gains. Specifically, O. insectifera is projected to experience major area loss in its southern reaches (the Balkans, Italy and Spain), while it will expand its northern limits to North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries exhibiting the largest gains.}, }
@article {pmid35450418, year = {2022}, author = {Irham, I and Fachrista, IA and Masyhuri, M and Suryantini, A}, title = {Climate Change Adaptation Strategies by Indonesian Vegetable Farmers: Comparative Study of Organic and Conventional Farmers.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {2022}, number = {}, pages = {3590769}, pmid = {35450418}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Indonesia ; Vegetables ; }, abstract = {Some experts believe that organic agriculture is more adaptable compared to conventional agriculture. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to assess organic and conventional farmers' perception and adaptation to climate change and analyse the factors that influence such decisions. The survey was conducted in Java, involving 112 organic farmers and 112 conventional farmers. The chi-square test was used to differentiate climate change perceptions and adaptation strategies applied by farmers. The factors that influenced the selection of the adaptation strategies were analysed using logistic regression. The results of analysis found that organic farmers have more precise perceptions of climate change than that of conventional farmers. Organic farmers more commonly implement mixed cropping, crop rotation, increasing organic manure, using shade, and changing irrigation techniques as their adaptation strategies, while conventional farmers more commonly prefer to adjust planting and harvesting dates and use traditional climate prediction called Pranata Mangsa. The selection of farmers' adaptation strategies is influenced by age, education, experience, distance to extension services, access to credit, information about climate and farmer groups, as well as farmers' perceptions of climate change. The results of the study recommend that policy makers increase farmers' adaptive capacity through investment in education and institutions to support climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid35450305, year = {2022}, author = {Chain, GS and Chain, BM and Pelliccia, FB}, title = {Climate Change Affects Health: Are We Listening?.}, journal = {Global pediatric health}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {2333794X221091799}, pmid = {35450305}, issn = {2333-794X}, }
@article {pmid35449443, year = {2022}, author = {Numata, S and Yamaguchi, K and Shimizu, M and Sakurai, G and Morimoto, A and Alias, N and Noor Azman, NZ and Hosaka, T and Satake, A}, title = {Impacts of climate change on reproductive phenology in tropical rainforests of Southeast Asia.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {311}, pmid = {35449443}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Rainforest ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {In humid forests in Southeast Asia, many species from dozens of plant families flower gregariously and fruit synchronously at irregular multi-year intervals[1-4]. Little is known about how climate change will impact these community-wide mass reproductive events. Here, we perform a comprehensive analysis of reproductive phenology and its environmental drivers based on a monthly reproductive phenology record from 210 species in 41 families in Peninsular Malaysia. We find that the proportion of flowering and fruiting species decreased from 1976 to 2010. Using a phenology model, we find that 57% of species in the Dipterocarpaceae family respond to both drought and low-temperature cues for flowering. We show that low-temperature flowering cues will become less available in the future in the RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, leading to decreased flowering opportunities of these species in a wide region from Thailand to the island of Borneo. Our results highlight the vulnerability of and variability in phenological responses across species in tropical ecosystems that differ from temperate and boreal biomes.}, }
@article {pmid35449002, year = {2022}, author = {Xia, C and Huang, Y and Qi, Y and Yang, X and Xue, T and Hu, R and Deng, H and Bussmann, RW and Yu, S}, title = {Developing long-term conservation priority planning for medicinal plants in China by combining conservation status with diversity hotspot analyses and climate change prediction.}, journal = {BMC biology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {89}, pmid = {35449002}, issn = {1741-7007}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Plants, Medicinal ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Medicinal plants have always played an important role in the history of human health. However, the populations and sustainable use of medicinal plants have been severely affected by human activities and climate change. Little is known about the current conservation status and distribution pattern of medicinal plants. In this study, based on accurate geographical distribution information of 9756 medicinal plants, we identified diversity hotspots and conservation gaps, evaluated conservation effectiveness of nature reserves, and predicted suitable habitat areas for medicinal plants in China to provide scientific guidance for their long-term conservation and sustainable use.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 150 diversity hotspot grid cells, mainly concentrated in central and southern China, were identified. These only accounted for 5% of the total distribution area but contained 96% of the medicinal plants of the country. The hotspot grid cells included all traditional hotspot areas, but we also detected three new hotspots, namely Mufu-Lushan Mountains, Tianshan-Altai Mountains, and Changbai Mountains. The current national and provincial nature reserves protect 125 hotspot grid cells, which harbor 94% of all medicinal plants. However, 25 hotspot grid cells, distributed in the Tianshan-Altai Mountains and Hengduan Mountains, are located outside the national and provincial nature reserves. An analysis of the predicted effects of climate change indicated that the suitable habitat areas will shift from southern to northern China, and that southern China will face a considerable loss of suitable habitat areas, while the east and west parts of China will encompass remarkably more suitable habitat areas in the future.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The current conservation networks have achieved high conservation effectiveness with regard to medicinal plants; however, the conservation gaps we identified&#xa0;should not&#xa0;be neglected, and&#xa0;conservation planning needs to take into account the predicted shifts of&#xa0;some hotspots of medicinal plants due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35446706, year = {2022}, author = {McCool, WC and Codding, BF and Vernon, KB and Wilson, KM and Yaworsky, PM and Marwan, N and Kennett, DJ}, title = {Climate change-induced population pressure drives high rates of lethal violence in the Prehispanic central Andes.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {17}, pages = {e2117556119}, pmid = {35446706}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; History, Ancient ; Homicide ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; South America ; *Violence ; Warfare ; }, abstract = {Understanding the influence of climate change and population pressure on human conflict remains a critically important topic in the social sciences. Long-term records that evaluate these dynamics across multiple centuries and outside the range of modern climatic variation are especially capable of elucidating the relative effect of—and the interaction between—climate and demography. This is crucial given that climate change may structure population growth and carrying capacity, while both climate and population influence per capita resource availability. This study couples paleoclimatic and demographic data with osteological evaluations of lethal trauma from 149 directly accelerator mass spectrometry 14C-dated individuals from the Nasca highland region of Peru. Multiple local and supraregional precipitation proxies are combined with a summed probability distribution of 149 14C dates to estimate population dynamics during a 700-y study window. Counter to previous findings, our analysis reveals a precipitous increase in violent deaths associated with a period of productive and stable climate, but volatile population dynamics. We conclude that favorable local climate conditions fostered population growth that put pressure on the marginal and highly circumscribed resource base, resulting in violent resource competition that manifested in over 450 y of internecine warfare. These findings help support a general theory of intergroup violence, indicating that relative resource scarcity—whether driven by reduced resource abundance or increased competition—can lead to violence in subsistence societies when the outcome is lower per capita resource availability.}, }
@article {pmid35445402, year = {2022}, author = {Oomen, RA and Hutchings, JA}, title = {Genomic reaction norms inform predictions of plastic and adaptive responses to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {6}, pages = {1073-1087}, pmid = {35445402}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Genomics ; Plastics ; }, abstract = {Genomic reaction norms represent the range of gene expression phenotypes (usually mRNA transcript levels) expressed by a genotype along an environmental gradient. Reaction norms derived from common-garden experiments are powerful approaches for disentangling plastic and adaptive responses to environmental change in natural populations. By treating gene expression as a phenotype in itself, genomic reaction norms represent invaluable tools for exploring causal mechanisms underlying organismal responses to climate change across multiple levels of biodiversity. Our goal is to provide the context, framework and motivation for applying genomic reaction norms to study the responses of natural populations to climate change. Here, we describe the utility of integrating genomics with common-garden-gradient experiments under a reaction norm analytical framework to answer fundamental questions about phenotypic plasticity, local adaptation, their interaction (i.e. genetic variation in plasticity) and future adaptive potential. An experimental and analytical framework for constructing and analysing genomic reaction norms is presented within the context of polygenic climate change responses of structured populations with gene flow. Intended for a broad eco-evo readership, we first briefly review adaptation with gene flow and the importance of understanding the genomic basis and spatial scale of adaptation for conservation and management of structured populations under anthropogenic change. Then, within a high-dimensional reaction norm framework, we illustrate how to distinguish plastic, differentially expressed (difference in reaction norm intercepts) and differentially plastic (difference in reaction norm slopes) genes, highlighting the areas of opportunity for applying these concepts. We conclude by discussing how genomic reaction norms can be incorporated into a holistic framework to understand the eco-evolutionary dynamics of climate change responses from molecules to ecosystems. We aim to inspire researchers to integrate gene expression measurements into common-garden experimental designs to investigate the genomics of climate change responses as sequencing costs become increasingly accessible.}, }
@article {pmid35444312, year = {2022}, author = {Thompson, B and Petrić Howe, N and Bundell, S}, title = {We could still limit global warming to just 2˚C - but there's an 'if'.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-01100-8}, pmid = {35444312}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid35444282, year = {2022}, author = {Outhwaite, CL and McCann, P and Newbold, T}, title = {Agriculture and climate change are reshaping insect biodiversity worldwide.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {605}, number = {7908}, pages = {97-102}, pmid = {35444282}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Insecta ; }, abstract = {Several previous studies have investigated changes in insect biodiversity, with some highlighting declines and others showing turnover in species composition without net declines[1-5]. Although research has shown that biodiversity changes are driven primarily by land-use change and increasingly by climate change[6,7], the potential for interaction between these drivers and insect biodiversity on the global scale remains unclear. Here we show that the interaction between indices of historical climate warming and intensive agricultural land use is associated with reductions of almost 50% in the abundance and 27% in the number of species within insect assemblages relative to those in less-disturbed habitats with lower rates of historical climate warming. These patterns are particularly evident in the tropical realm, whereas some positive responses of biodiversity to climate change occur in non-tropical regions in natural habitats. A high availability of nearby natural habitat often mitigates reductions in insect abundance and richness associated with agricultural land use and substantial climate warming but only in low-intensity agricultural systems. In such systems, in which high levels (75% cover) of natural habitat are available, abundance and richness were reduced by 7% and 5%, respectively, compared with reductions of 63% and 61% in places where less natural habitat is present (25% cover). Our results show that insect biodiversity will probably benefit from mitigating climate change, preserving natural habitat within landscapes and reducing the intensity of agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid35444222, year = {2022}, author = {García-Escárzaga, A and Gutiérrez-Zugasti, I and Marín-Arroyo, AB and Fernandes, R and Núñez de la Fuente, S and Cuenca-Solana, D and Iriarte, E and Simões, C and Martín-Chivelet, J and González-Morales, MR and Roberts, P}, title = {Human forager response to abrupt climate change at 8.2 ka on the Atlantic coast of Europe.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {6481}, pmid = {35444222}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {SUBSILIENCE ERC-CoG project (grant agreement No. 818299)/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Caves ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Hominidae ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The cooling and drying associated with the so-called '8.2 ka event' have long been hypothesized as having sweeping implications for human societies in the Early Holocene, including some of the last Mesolithic hunter-gatherers in Atlantic Europe. Nevertheless, detailed 'on-site' records with which the impacts of broader climate changes on human-relevant environments can be explored have been lacking. Here, we reconstruct sea surface temperatures (SST) from δ[18]O values measured on subfossil topshells Phorcus lineatus exploited by the Mesolithic human groups that lived at El Mazo cave (N Spain) between 9 and 7.4 ka. Bayesian modelling of 65 radiocarbon dates, in combination with this δ[18]O data, provide a high-resolution seasonal record of SST, revealing that colder SST during the 8.2 ka event led to changes in the availability of different shellfish species. Intensification in the exploitation of molluscs by humans indicates demographic growth in these Atlantic coastal settings which acted as refugia during this cold event.}, }
@article {pmid35444010, year = {2022}, author = {Torjesen, I}, title = {Government agrees to brief MPs on climate change after health leaders back hunger striker's demands.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {377}, number = {}, pages = {o1008}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o1008}, pmid = {35444010}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Food Supply ; Government ; Humans ; *Hunger ; }, }
@article {pmid35443992, year = {2022}, author = {Torjesen, I}, title = {Health leaders urge PM to meet hunger striker's demand that MPs be briefed on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {377}, number = {}, pages = {o999}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o999}, pmid = {35443992}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Food Supply ; Humans ; *Hunger ; }, }
@article {pmid35443761, year = {2022}, author = {Kordas, RL and Pawar, S and Kontopoulos, DG and Woodward, G and O'Gorman, EJ}, title = {Metabolic plasticity can amplify ecosystem responses to global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {2161}, pmid = {35443761}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; *Global Warming ; Invertebrates ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Organisms have the capacity to alter their physiological response to warming through acclimation or adaptation, but the consequence of this metabolic plasticity for energy flow through food webs is currently unknown, and a generalisable framework does not exist for modelling its ecosystem-level effects. Here, using temperature-controlled experiments on stream invertebrates from a natural thermal gradient, we show that the ability of organisms to raise their metabolic rate following chronic exposure to warming decreases with increasing body size. Chronic exposure to higher temperatures also increases the acute thermal sensitivity of whole-organismal metabolic rate, independent of body size. A mathematical model parameterised with these findings shows that metabolic plasticity could account for 60% higher ecosystem energy flux with just +2 °C of warming than a traditional model based on ecological metabolic theory. This could explain why long-term warming amplifies ecosystem respiration rates through time in recent mesocosm experiments, and highlights the need to embed metabolic plasticity in predictive models of global warming impacts on ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid35442553, year = {2022}, author = {Wen, X and Zhao, G and Cheng, X and Chang, G and Dong, X and Lin, X}, title = {Prediction of the potential distribution pattern of the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) under climate change based on ensemble modelling.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {78}, number = {7}, pages = {3128-3134}, doi = {10.1002/ps.6939}, pmid = {35442553}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {//Rodent Control Demonstration Project of National Forestry and Grassland Administration China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Gerbillinae ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Rodent infestation is a global biological problem. Rodents are widely distributed worldwide, cause harm to agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry production and spread a variety of natural focal diseases. In this study, 10 ecological niche models were combined into an ensemble model to assess the distribution of suitable habitats for Rhombomys opimus and to predict the impact of future climate change on the distribution of R. opimus under low, medium and high socioeconomic pathway scenarios of CMIP6.<br><br>RESULTS: In general, with the exception of extreme climates (2090-SSP585), the current and potential future ranges of R. opimus habitat are maintained at approximately 220&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10[4] &#x2009;km[2] . In combination with human footprint data, the potential distribution area of R. opimus was found to coincide with areas with a moderate human footprint. In addition, this distribution area will gradually shift to higher-latitude regions, and the suitable habitat area of R. opimus will gradually shrink in China, Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan while increasing in Mongolia and Kazakhstan.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These results help identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of R. opimus and provide supportive information for the development of management strategies to protect against future ecological and human health risks. &#xa9; 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid35440555, year = {2022}, author = {Bailey, LD and van de Pol, M and Adriaensen, F and Arct, A and Barba, E and Bellamy, PE and Bonamour, S and Bouvier, JC and Burgess, MD and Charmantier, A and Cusimano, C and Doligez, B and Drobniak, SM and Dubiec, A and Eens, M and Eeva, T and Ferns, PN and Goodenough, AE and Hartley, IR and Hinsley, SA and Ivankina, E and Juškaitis, R and Kempenaers, B and Kerimov, AB and Lavigne, C and Leivits, A and Mainwaring, MC and Matthysen, E and Nilsson, J&#xc5; and Orell, M and Rytkönen, S and Senar, JC and Sheldon, BC and Sorace, A and Stenning, MJ and Török, J and van Oers, K and Vatka, E and Vriend, SJG and Visser, ME}, title = {Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {2112}, pmid = {35440555}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Passeriformes ; Seasons ; *Songbirds ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species' range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species' range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.}, }
@article {pmid35439258, year = {2022}, author = {Abdullahi, T and Nitschke, G and Sweijd, N}, title = {Predicting diarrhoea outbreaks with climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {e0262008}, pmid = {35439258}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Diarrhea/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Machine Learning ; *Neural Networks, Computer ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to exacerbate diarrhoea outbreaks across the developing world, most notably in Sub-Saharan countries such as South Africa. In South Africa, diseases related to diarrhoea outbreak is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. In this study, we modelled the impacts of climate change on diarrhoea with various machine learning (ML) methods to predict daily outbreak of diarrhoea cases in nine South African provinces.<br><br>METHODS: We applied two deep Learning DL techniques, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Long-Short term Memory Networks (LSTMs); and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) to predict daily diarrhoea cases over the different South African provinces by incorporating climate information. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) was used to generate synthetic data which was used to augment the available data-set. Furthermore, Relevance Estimation and Value Calibration (REVAC) was used to tune the parameters of the ML methods to optimize the accuracy of their predictions. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to investigate the contribution of the different climate factors to the diarrhoea prediction method.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results showed that all three ML methods were appropriate for predicting daily diarrhoea cases with respect to the selected climate variables in each South African province. However, the level of accuracy for each method varied across different experiments, with the deep learning methods outperforming the SVM method. Among the deep learning techniques, the CNN method performed best when only real-world data-set was used, while the LSTM method outperformed the other methods when the real-world data-set was augmented with synthetic data. Across the provinces, the accuracy of all three ML methods improved by at least 30 percent when data augmentation was implemented. In addition, REVAC improved the accuracy of the CNN method by about 2.5% in each province. Our parameter sensitivity analysis revealed that the most influential climate variables to be considered when predicting outbreak of diarrhoea in South Africa were precipitation, humidity, evaporation and temperature conditions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, experiments indicated that the prediction capacity of our DL methods (Convolutional Neural Networks) was found to be superior (with statistical significance) in terms of prediction accuracy across most provinces. This study's results have important implications for the development of automated early warning systems for diarrhoea (and related disease) outbreaks across the globe.}, }
@article {pmid35438534, year = {2022}, author = {Tiedje, JM and Bruns, MA and Casadevall, A and Criddle, CS and Eloe-Fadrosh, E and Karl, DM and Nguyen, NK and Zhou, J}, title = {Microbes and Climate Change: a Research Prospectus for the Future.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {e0080022}, pmid = {35438534}, issn = {2150-7511}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Methane ; Nitrous Oxide ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the most serious challenge facing humanity. Microbes produce and consume three major greenhouse gases-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-and some microbes cause human, animal, and plant diseases that can be exacerbated by climate change. Hence, microbial research is needed to help ameliorate the warming trajectory and cascading effects resulting from heat, drought, and severe storms. We present a brief summary of what is known about microbial responses to climate change in three major ecosystems: terrestrial, ocean, and urban. We also offer suggestions for new research directions to reduce microbial greenhouse gases and mitigate the pathogenic impacts of microbes. These include performing more controlled studies on the climate impact on microbial processes, system interdependencies, and responses to human interventions, using microbes and their carbon and nitrogen transformations for useful stable products, improving microbial process data for climate models, and taking the One Health approach to study microbes and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35438387, year = {2022}, author = {Chang, AY and Tan, AX and Nadeau, KC and Odden, MC}, title = {Aging Hearts in a Hotter, More Turbulent World: The Impacts of Climate Change on the Cardiovascular Health of Older Adults.}, journal = {Current cardiology reports}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {749-760}, pmid = {35438387}, issn = {1534-3170}, mesh = {Aged ; Aging ; *Climate Change ; Ethnicity ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Minority Groups ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change has manifested itself in multiple environmental hazards to human health. Older adults and those living with cardiovascular diseases are particularly susceptible to poor outcomes due to unique social, economic, and physiologic vulnerabilities. This review aims to summarize those vulnerabilities and the resultant impacts of climate-mediated disasters on the heart health of the aging population.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Analyses incorporating a wide variety of environmental data sources have identified increases in cardiovascular risk factors, hospitalizations, and mortality from intensified air pollution, wildfires, heat waves, extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and pandemic disease. Older adults, especially those of low socioeconomic status or belonging to ethnic minority groups, bear a disproportionate health burden from these hazards. The worldwide trends responsible for global warming continue to worsen climate change-mediated natural disasters. As such, additional investigation will be necessary to develop personal and policy-level interventions to protect the cardiovascular wellbeing of our aging population.}, }
@article {pmid35437931, year = {2022}, author = {Li, D and Li, Z and Wang, X and Wang, L and Li, Y and Liu, D}, title = {Increasing risk of aphids spreading plant viruses in maize fields on both sides of China's Heihe-Tengchong line under climate change.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {78}, number = {7}, pages = {3061-3070}, doi = {10.1002/ps.6932}, pmid = {35437931}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Aphids ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Plant Diseases ; *Potyvirus ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the coming decades, geographical distribution patterns of farmland organisms may undergo drastic changes due to climate change, with significant implications for global food security. In China, Rhopalosiphum maidis and its spread of sugarcane mosaic virus (ScMV) can become an increasingly serious threat to maize (Zea mays) production. We conducted ecological niche modeling for Z. mays, R. maidis, and ScMV under current and future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) climate scenarios by using MaxEnt software to explore changes in this system.<br><br>RESULTS: The Heihe-Tengchong line (an imaginary separation line of human population density) can divide China into main (east of the line) and secondary (west of the line) habitats for the three species. With climate change, rapid expansion in suitable areas is projected for ScMV and the aphid vector R. maidis. Taking species interactions into consideration, our overlaying analyses show that most areas east of the Heihe-Tengchong line (optimal for maize and suitable for R. maidis) will become increasingly highly suitable for ScMV, suggesting that the prevention and control of this plant virus and its aphid vector in China's main maize-growing areas (e.g. northeast) will become an increasing challenge in the future.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change will profoundly affect ScMV-vector-maize interactions, which may contribute favorably to invasion of this virus into new areas. Our comprehensive and in-depth analyses on shifts in this multi-species system under climate change provide useful and insightful information for devising strategies for the prevention and control of plant viruses and aphid vectors on maize in the future. &#xa9; 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid35437406, year = {2022}, author = {Borges, PAV and Lamelas-Lopez, L and Stüben, PE and Ros-Prieto, A and Gabriel, R and Boieiro, M and Tsafack, N and Ferreira, MT}, title = {SLAM Project - Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the Natural Forest of Azores: II - A survey of exotic arthropods in disturbed forest habitats.}, journal = {Biodiversity data journal}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e81410}, pmid = {35437406}, issn = {1314-2828}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The data we present consist of an inventory of exotic arthropods, potentially invasive, collected in exotic and mixed forests and disturbed native forest patches of the Azores Archipelago. The study was carried out between 2019 and 2020 in four islands: Corvo, Flores, Terceira and Santa Maria, where a total of 45 passive flight interception SLAM traps were deployed, during three to six consecutive months. This manuscript is the second contribution of the "SLAM Project - Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the Natural Forest of Azores".<br><br>NEW INFORMATION: We provide an inventory of terrestrial arthropods belonging to Arachnida, Diplopoda, Chilopoda and Insecta classes from four Azorean islands. We identified a total of 21,175 specimens, belonging to 20 orders, 93 families and 249 species of arthropods. A total of 125 species are considered introduced, 89 native non-endemic and 35 endemic. We registered 34 new records (nine for Corvo, three for Flores, six for Terceira and 16 for Santa Maria), of which five are new for Azores, being all exotic possibly recently introduced: Dieckmanniellusnitidulus (Gyllenhal, 1838), Gronopsfasciatus K&#xfc;ster, 1851, Hadroplontustrimaculatus (Fabricius, 1775), Hypurusbertrandi (Perris, 1852) (all Coleoptera, Curculionidae) and Cardiocondylamauritanica Forel, 1890 (Hymenoptera, Formicidae). This publication highlights the importance of planted forests and disturbed native forest patches as reservoirs of potentially invasive arthropods and refuges for some rare relict endemic arthropod species.}, }
@article {pmid35436720, year = {2022}, author = {Xing, Q and Sun, Z and Tao, Y and Shang, J and Miao, S and Xiao, C and Zheng, C}, title = {Projections of future temperature-related cardiovascular mortality under climate change, urbanization and population aging in Beijing, China.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {163}, number = {}, pages = {107231}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2022.107231}, pmid = {35436720}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Aged ; Aging ; Beijing ; *Cardiovascular Diseases ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mortality ; Temperature ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Climate change is causing the surface temperature to rise and the extreme weather events to increase in frequency and intensity, which will pose potential threats to the survival and health of residents. Beijing is facing multiple challenges such as coping with climate change, urbanization, and population aging, which puts huge decision-making pressure on decision maker. However, few studies that systematically consider the health effects of climate change, urbanization, and population aging for China. Based on the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and 13 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study obtained the temporal and spatial distribution of surface temperature through statistical downscaling methods, and comprehensively explored the independent and comprehensive effects of urbanization and population aging on the projection of future temperature-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the context of climate and population change. The results showed that only improving urbanization can reduce future temperature-related CVD mortality by 1.7-18.3%, and only intensified aging can increase future temperature-related CVD mortality by 48.8-325.9%. Taking into account the improving urbanization and intensified aging, future temperature-related CVD mortality would increase by 44.1-256.6%, and the increase was slightly lower than that of only intensified aging. Therefore, the intensified aging was the biggest disadvantage in tackling climate change, which would obviously magnify the mortality risks of temperature-related CVD in the future. Although the advancement of urbanization would alleviate the adverse effects of the intensified aging population, the mitigation effects would be limited. Even so, Urbanization should be continued to reduce health risks for residents. These findings would contribute to formulate policies related to mitigate climate change and reduce baseline mortality rate (especially the elderly) in international mega-city - Beijing. In addition, relevant departments should improve the medical health care level and optimize the allocation of social resources to better cope with and adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35433284, year = {2022}, author = {Bartrem, C and von Lindern, I and von Braun, M and Tirima, S}, title = {Climate Change, Conflict, and Resource Extraction: Analyses of Nigerian Artisanal Mining Communities and Ominous Global Trends.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {88}, number = {1}, pages = {17}, pmid = {35433284}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure/analysis ; Gold/analysis ; Humans ; Mining ; Nigeria/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The 2010 lead poisoning outbreak that claimed the lives of more than 400 children in artisanal gold mining villages in Zamfara, Nigeria is the tragic result of high gold prices, a geologic anomaly, and processing of ores in residential areas. Today, these villages face a growing crisis related to conflict and climate change. While the situation in Zamfara is unparalleled in many ways, the interactions between climate change, conflict, and mining consistently overlap a global scale. The scope of this analysis extends beyond the Nigerian crisis.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Understanding the complexities of challenges faced in Zamfara provides insight into how these issues impact vulnerable communities globally, and which strategies should be considered to solve this wicked problem.<br><br>METHODS: Analysis of the relationships between climate change, conflict, and mining in Zamfara and globally via literature review and examination of current events in the Sahel region.<br><br>FINDINGS: Supporting healthy artisanal mining communities, as was prioritized in Zamfara, must be a focus of environmental, health, and mineral management policies. This includes the consideration of multiple environmental health challenges, the protection of vulnerable groups, government-supported formalization programs, and meaningful involvement of local leadership in developing, implementing, and sustaining intervention strategies to enshrine ASM as a poverty reduction, climate change adaptation strategy.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Rapidly rising metal prices and demand will continue to fuel environmental health crises associated with mining. Given Africa's growing role in the global mineral economy and the massive number of subsistence communities who will continue to be impacted by climate change, strategies that support responsible artisanal mining are both a necessity for preventing future health crises and an opportunity for promoting regional stability and peace.}, }
@article {pmid35432952, year = {2022}, author = {Huang, KS}, title = {Bilateral emergency export reserve mechanism under climate change.}, journal = {Agriculture &amp; food security}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {27}, pmid = {35432952}, issn = {2048-7010}, abstract = {Consider that multilateral food aid and regional food security mechanisms may incompletely adapt to the challenges of climate change in future practice. This study proposes a framework of bilateral emergency export reserve mechanism to encourage both participating countries to jointly appoint a transnational agribusiness to manage emergency export reserves as a means of fulfilling its corporate social responsibility (CSR). This mechanism has the features of simplified negotiation, more transparent operating procedures, along with reciprocity in bilateral cooperation, which would provide grain importing countries with a higher degree of safeguarding food security.}, }
@article {pmid35432937, year = {2022}, author = {Pawluk, M and Fujiwara, M and Martinez-Andrade, F}, title = {Climate change linked to functional homogenization of a subtropical estuarine system.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {e8783}, pmid = {35432937}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change causes marine species to shift and expand their distributions, often leading to changes in species diversity. While increased biodiversity is often assumed to confer positive benefits on ecosystem functioning, many examples have shown that the relationship is specific to the ecosystem and function studied and is often driven by functional composition and diversity. In the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, tropical species expansion was shown to have increased estuarine fish and invertebrate diversity; however, it is not yet known how those increases have affected functional diversity. To address this knowledge gap, two metrics of functional diversity, functional richness (FRic) and functional dispersion (FDis), were estimated in each year for a 38-year study period, for each of the eight major bays along the Texas coast. Then, the community-weighted mean (CWM) trait values for each of the functional traits are calculated to assess how functional composition has changed through time. Finally, principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify species contributing most to changing functional diversity. We found significant increases in log-functional richness in both spring and fall, and significant decreases in functional dispersion in spring, suggesting that although new functional types are entering the bays, assemblages are becoming more dominated by similar functional types. Community-weighted trait means showed significant increases in the relative abundance of traits associated with large, long-lived, higher trophic level species, suggesting an increase in periodic and equilibrium life-history strategists within the bays. PCA identified mainly native sciaenid species as contributing most to functional diversity trends although several tropical species also show increasing trends through time. We conclude that the climate-driven species expansion in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico led to a decrease in functional dispersion due to increasing relative abundance of species with similar life-history characteristics, and thus the communities have become more functionally homogeneous.}, }
@article {pmid35432785, year = {2022}, author = {Massazza, A and Ardino, V and Fioravanzo, RE}, title = {Climate change, trauma and mental health in Italy: a scoping review.}, journal = {European journal of psychotraumatology}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1-16}, pmid = {35432785}, issn = {2000-8066}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Morbidity ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is having significant impacts on health and mental health across Europe and globally. Such effects are likely to be more severe in climate change hotspots such as the Mediterranean region, including Italy.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To review existing literature on the relationship between climate change and mental health in Italy, with a particular focus on trauma and PTSD.<br><br>METHODS: A scoping review methodology was used. We followed guidance for scoping reviews and the PRISMA Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist. We searched for literature in MEDLINE, Global Health, Embase and PsycINFO. Following screening, data was extracted from individual papers and a quality assessment was conducted. Given the heterogeneity of studies, findings were summarized narratively.<br><br>RESULTS: We identified 21 original research articles investigating the relationship between climate change and mental health in Italy. Climate change stressors (heat and heatwaves in particular) were found to have several negative effects on various mental health outcomes, such as a higher risk of mortality among people with mental health conditions, suicide and suicidal behaviour and psychiatric morbidity (e.g. psychiatric hospitalization and symptoms of mental health conditions). However, there is little research on the relationship between climate change and trauma or PTSD in the Italian context.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: More attention and resources should be directed towards understanding the mental health implications of climate change to prevent, promote, and respond to the mental health needs of Italy and the wider Mediterranean region.<br><br>HIGHLIGHTS: &#x2022; Climate change stressors in Italy were found to have detrimental impacts on various mental health outcomes, such as psychiatric mortality and morbidity. &#x2022; Little research on the relationship between climate change stressors and PTSD exists in Italy.}, }
@article {pmid35431378, year = {2022}, author = {Cheval, S and Bulai, A and Croitoru, AE and Dorondel, &#x218; and Micu, D and Mihăilă, D and Sfîcă, L and Tișcovschi, A}, title = {Climate change perception in Romania.}, journal = {Theoretical and applied climatology}, volume = {149}, number = {1-2}, pages = {253-272}, pmid = {35431378}, issn = {0177-798X}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: In the last decades, anthropogenic drivers have significantly influenced the natural climate variability of Earth's atmosphere. Climate change has become a subject of major interest for different levels of our society, such as national governments, businesses, local administration, or citizens. While national and local policies propose mitigation and adaptation strategies for different sectors, public perception is a key component of any implementation plan. This study investigates the CC perception in Romania, based on a national-scale online survey performed in the spring of 2020, aiming to outline the prominence of environmental and CC issues, level of information and interest, perceived causes, changes perceived in meteorological phenomena at the regional scale, perceived impacts, and the psychological representation of the CC. The study investigates single causal factors of perception. We found that particularly (i) the regional differences on climate change intensity strongly bias the perception of CC causes; (ii) age is very likely to influence the acceptance of CC, the importance of environmental issues, and the levels of information and interest; while (iii) age, gender, and place of residence (rural-urban) are very likely to control the changes perceived in the occurrence of various meteorological phenomena, and their impact. This research is the first statistically relevant analysis (± 4%, statistical significance) developed at national and regional scales and the only study of climate change perception performed during the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania. Its results may represent the baseline for more in-depth research.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00704-022-04041-4.}, }
@article {pmid35429140, year = {2022}, author = {Furlan, E and Derepasko, D and Torresan, S and Pham, HV and Fogarin, S and Critto, A}, title = {Ecosystem services at risk in Italy from coastal inundation under extreme sea level scenarios up to 2050: A spatially resolved approach supporting climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {18}, number = {6}, pages = {1564-1577}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4620}, pmid = {35429140}, issn = {1551-3793}, support = {//SAVEMEDCOASTS Project/ ; }, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Climate Change ; Sea Level Rise ; Biodiversity ; Italy ; }, abstract = {According to the latest projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, at the end of the century, coastal zones and low-lying ecosystems will be increasingly threatened by rising global mean sea levels. In order to support integrated coastal zone management and advance the basic "source-pathway-receptor-consequence" approach focused on traditional receptors (e.g., population, infrastructure, and economy), a novel risk framework is proposed able to evaluate potential risks of loss or degradation of ecosystem services (ESs) due to projected extreme sea level scenarios in the Italian coast. Three risk scenarios for the reference period (1969-2010) and future time frame up to 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are developed by integrating extreme water-level projections related to changing climate conditions, with vulnerability information about the topography, distance from coastlines, and presence of artificial protections. A risk assessment is then performed considering the potential effects of the spatial-temporal variability of inundations and land use on the supply level and spatial distribution of ESs. The results of the analysis are summarized into a spatially explicit risk index, useful to rank coastal areas more prone to ESs losses or degradation due to coastal inundation at the national scale. Overall, the Northern Adriatic coast is scored at high risk of ESs loss or degradation in the future scenario. Other small coastal strips with medium risk scores are the Eastern Puglia coast, Western Sardinia, and Tuscany's coast. The ESs Coastal Risk Index provides an easy-to-understand screening assessment that could support the prioritization of areas for coastal adaptation at the national scale. Moreover, this index allows the direct evaluation of the public value of ecosystems and supports more effective territorial planning and environmental management decisions. In particular, it could support the mainstreaming of ecosystem-based approaches (e.g., ecological engineering and green infrastructures) to mitigate the risks of climate change and extreme events while protecting ecosystems and biodiversity. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1564-1577. © 2021 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid35427623, year = {2022}, author = {McKinney, MA and Chételat, J and Burke, SM and Elliott, KH and Fernie, KJ and Houde, M and Kahilainen, KK and Letcher, RJ and Morris, AD and Muir, DCG and Routti, H and Yurkowski, DJ}, title = {Climate change and mercury in the Arctic: Biotic interactions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {834}, number = {}, pages = {155221}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155221}, pmid = {35427623}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Lakes ; Mammals ; *Mercury/analysis ; }, abstract = {Global climate change has led to profound alterations of the Arctic environment and ecosystems, with potential secondary effects on mercury (Hg) within Arctic biota. This review presents the current scientific evidence for impacts of direct physical climate change and indirect ecosystem change on Hg exposure and accumulation in Arctic terrestrial, freshwater, and marine organisms. As the marine environment is elevated in Hg compared to the terrestrial environment, terrestrial herbivores that now exploit coastal/marine foods when terrestrial plants are iced over may be exposed to higher Hg concentrations. Conversely, certain populations of predators, including Arctic foxes and polar bears, have shown lower Hg concentrations related to reduced sea ice-based foraging and increased land-based foraging. How climate change influences Hg in Arctic freshwater fishes is not clear, but for lacustrine populations it may depend on lake-specific conditions, including interrelated alterations in lake ice duration, turbidity, food web length and energy sources (benthic to pelagic), and growth dilution. In several marine mammal and seabird species, tissue Hg concentrations have shown correlations with climate and weather variables, including climate oscillation indices and sea ice trends; these findings suggest that wind, precipitation, and cryosphere changes that alter Hg transport and deposition are impacting Hg concentrations in Arctic marine organisms. Ecological changes, including northward range shifts of sub-Arctic species and altered body condition, have also been shown to affect Hg levels in some populations of Arctic marine species. Given the limited number of populations and species studied to date, especially within Arctic terrestrial and freshwater systems, further research is needed on climate-driven processes influencing Hg concentrations in Arctic ecosystems and their net effects. Long-term pan-Arctic monitoring programs should consider ancillary datasets on climate, weather, organism ecology and physiology to improve interpretation of spatial variation and time trends of Hg in Arctic biota.}, }
@article {pmid35427613, year = {2022}, author = {Storms, I and Verdonck, S and Verbist, B and Willems, P and De Geest, P and Gutsch, M and Cools, N and De Vos, B and Mahnken, M and Lopez, J and Van Orshoven, J and Muys, B}, title = {Quantifying climate change effects on future forest biomass availability using yield tables improved by mechanistic scaling.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {833}, number = {}, pages = {155189}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155189}, pmid = {35427613}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Forests and wood products play a major role in climate change mitigation strategies and the transition from a fossil-based economy to a circular bioeconomy. Accurate estimates of future forest productivity are crucial to predict the carbon sequestration and wood provision potential of forests. Since long, forest managers have used empirical yield tables as a cost-effective and reliable way to predict forest growth. However, recent climate change-induced growth shifts raised doubts about the long-term validity of these yield tables. In this study, we propose a methodology to improve available yield tables of 11 tree species in the Netherlands and Flanders, Belgium. The methodology uses scaling functions derived from climate-sensitive process-based modelling (PBM) that reflect state-of-the-art projections of future growth trends. Combining PBM and stand information from the empirical yield tables for the region of Flanders, we found that for the period 1987-2016 stand productivity has on average increased by 13% compared to 1961-1990. Furthermore, simulations indicate that this positive growth trend is most likely to persist in the coming decades, for all considered species, climate or site conditions. Nonetheless, results showed that local site variability is equally important to consider as the in- or exclusion of the CO2 fertilization effect or different climate projections, when assessing the magnitude of forests' response to climate change. Our projections suggest that incorporating these climate change-related productivity changes lead to a 7% increase in standing stock and a 22% increase in sustainably potentially harvestable woody biomass by 2050. The proposed methodology and resulting estimates of climate-sensitive projections of future woody biomass stocks will facilitate the further incorporation of forests and their products in global and regional strategies for the transition to a climate-smart circular bioeconomy.}, }
@article {pmid35422399, year = {2022}, author = {Faye, JB and Braun, YA}, title = {Soil and human health: Understanding agricultural and socio-environmental risk and resilience in the age of climate change.}, journal = {Health &amp; place}, volume = {77}, number = {}, pages = {102799}, doi = {10.1016/j.healthplace.2022.102799}, pmid = {35422399}, issn = {1873-2054}, mesh = {*Aflatoxins ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Prolonged monocropping of commodity crops, such as peanuts (Arachis hypogea L.) in West Africa, typically strips nutrients from soils and may exacerbate vulnerability to insects and diseases. In this paper, we focus on aflatoxins, toxic chemicals produced by certain molds growing on moist crops, as one risk of growing importance for its negative impacts on human health, crop yields, and agricultural livelihoods and ecosystems. We link the increased prevalence of this deadly fungus to the long history of peanut monoculture, exacerbated by market liberalization and China's increased investment and export demand for peanuts, climate change, food insecurity, as well as disregard for and displacement of traditional agricultural knowledge. We use a political ecology approach to place the public health threat from aflatoxin in the context of both historical pressures for cash-crop production of peanuts and contemporary soil degradation, food insecurity, climate change precarity and changes within social and economic systems of agriculture in Senegal.}, }
@article {pmid35422081, year = {2022}, author = {Pillet, M and Goettsch, B and Merow, C and Maitner, B and Feng, X and Roehrdanz, PR and Enquist, BJ}, title = {Elevated extinction risk of cacti under climate change.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {366-372}, pmid = {35422081}, issn = {2055-0278}, mesh = {*Cactaceae/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Cactaceae (cacti), a New World plant family, is one of the most endangered groups of organisms on the planet. Conservation planning is uncertain as it is unclear whether climate and land-use change will positively or negatively impact global cactus diversity. On the one hand, a common perception is that future climates will be favourable to cacti as they have multiple adaptations and specialized physiologies and morphologies for increased heat and drought. On the other hand, the wide diversity of the more than 1,500 cactus species, many of which occur in more mesic and cooler ecosystems, questions the view that most cacti can tolerate warmer and drought conditions. Here we assess the hypothesis that cacti will benefit and expand in potential distribution in a warmer and more drought-prone world. We quantified exposure to climate change through range forecasts and associated diversity maps for 408 cactus species under three Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) for 2050 and 2070. Our analyses show that 60% of species will experience a reduction in favourable climate, with about a quarter of species exposed to environmental conditions outside of the current realized niche in over 25% of their current distribution. These results show low sensitivity to many uncertainties in forecasting, mostly deriving from dispersal ability and model complexity rather than climate scenarios. While current range size and the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List category were not statistically significant predictors of predicted future changes in suitable climate area, epiphytes had the greatest exposure to novel climates. Overall, the number of cactus species at risk is projected to increase sharply in the future, especially in current richness hotspots. Land-use change has previously been identified as the second-most-common driver of threat among cacti, affecting many of the ~31% of cacti that are currently threatened. Our results suggest that climate change will become a primary driver of cactus extinction risk with 60-90% of species assessed negatively impacted by climate change and/or other anthropogenic processes, depending on how these threat processes are distributed across cactus species.}, }
@article {pmid35421621, year = {2022}, author = {Lahondère, C and Bonizzoni, M}, title = {Thermal biology of invasive Aedes mosquitoes in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {51}, number = {}, pages = {100920}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2022.100920}, pmid = {35421621}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {*Aedes ; Animals ; *Arbovirus Infections ; *Arboviruses ; Biology ; Climate Change ; Mosquito Vectors/physiology ; }, abstract = {The increasing incidence of arboviral diseases in tropical endemic areas and their emergence in new temperate countries is one of the most important challenges that Public Health agencies are currently facing. Because mosquitoes are poikilotherms, shifts in temperature influence physiological functions besides egg viability. These traits impact not only vector density, but also their interaction with their hosts and arboviruses. As such the relationship among mosquitoes, arboviral diseases and temperature is complex. Here, we summarize current knowledge on the thermal biology of Aedes invasive mosquitoes, highlighting differences among species. We also emphasize the need to expand knowledge on the variability in thermal sensitivity across populations within a species, especially in light of climate change that encompasses increase not only in mean environmental temperature but also in the frequency of hot and cold snaps. Finally, we suggest a novel experimental approach to investigate the molecular architecture of thermal adaptation in mosquitoes.}, }
@article {pmid35421482, year = {2022}, author = {Guzmán-Luna, P and Nag, R and Martínez, I and Mauricio-Iglesias, M and Hospido, A and Cummins, E}, title = {Quantifying current and future raw milk losses due to bovine mastitis on European dairy farms under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {833}, number = {}, pages = {155149}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155149}, pmid = {35421482}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle ; Cell Count/veterinary ; Climate Change ; Dairying ; Farms ; Female ; Humans ; *Mastitis, Bovine/epidemiology/microbiology ; Milk ; Staphylococcus aureus ; }, abstract = {Bovine mastitis is an infectious disease that causes udder inflammation and is responsible for raw milk losses across European dairy farms. It is associated with reduced cow milk yield and contributes to elevated Somatic Cell Count (SCC) in raw milk. Staphylococcus aureus is one of the most prevalent mastitis pathogens that cause subclinical and clinical mastitis and can be present as a coloniser bacterium in cows. Climate change and geographical variability may influence the prevalence of this pathogen. Thus, this research aimed to predict the raw milk losses in three major dairy-producing regions across Europe (i.e. Mediterranean, Atlantic and Continental) under climate change scenarios. An exposure assessment model and a stepwise probabilistic model were developed to predict potential cow milk yield reduction, S. aureus and SCC concentrations in the bulk tank milk at dairy farms. Baseline (i.e. present) and future climate change scenarios were defined, and the resultant concentrations of SCC and S. aureus were compared to the actual European regulatory limits. Across the three regions, raw milk losses ranged from 1.06% to 2.15% in the baseline. However, they increased up to 3.21% in the climate change scenarios when no on-farm improvements were considered. Regarding geographical variation, the highest potential milk losses were reported for the Mediterranean and the lowest for the Continental region. Concerning the fulfilment of the regulatory limits, the mean of S. aureus and SCC levels in milk did not exceed them either in any region or scenario. Nevertheless, when looking at percentiles, the 10th percentile remained above the limits of S. aureus in Atlantic and Mediterranean, but not in the Continental region. The findings provide a snapshot of climate change impacts on raw milk losses due to mastitis. They will allow farmers to detect weaknesses and prepare them to develop adaptation plans to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35414943, year = {2022}, author = {Mouguiama-Daouda, C and Blanchard, MA and Coussement, C and Heeren, A}, title = {On the Measurement of Climate Change Anxiety: French Validation of the Climate Anxiety Scale.}, journal = {Psychologica Belgica}, volume = {62}, number = {1}, pages = {123-135}, pmid = {35414943}, issn = {2054-670X}, abstract = {The notion of climate change anxiety has gained traction in the last years. Clayton &amp; Karazsia (2020) recently developed the 22-item Climate Change Anxiety Scale (CAS), which assesses climate change anxiety via a four-factor structure. Yet other research has cast doubts on the very structure of the CAS by calling either for a shorter (i.e. 13 items) two-factor structure or for a shorter single-factor structure (i.e. 13 items). So far, these three different models have not yet been compared in one study. Moreover, uncertainty remains regarding the associations between the CAS and other psychological constructs, especially anxiety and depression. This project was designed to overcome these limitations. In a first preregistered study (n = 305), we translated the scale into French and tested, via confirmatory factor analyses (CFA), whether the French version would better fit with a four-, two-, or single-factor structure, as implied by previous works. We also examined how the CAS factors related to depression, anxiety, and environmental identity. In a second preregistered study, we aimed at replicating our comparison between the three CFA models in a larger sample (n = 905). Both studies pointed to a 13-item version of the scale with a two-factor structure as the best fitting model, with one factor reflecting cognitive and emotional features of climate change anxiety and the other reflecting the related functional impairments. Each factor exhibited a positive association with depression and environmental identity but not with general anxiety. We discuss how this two-factor structure impacts the conceptualization of climate change anxiety.}, }
@article {pmid35414080, year = {2022}, author = {Koldasbayeva, D and Tregubova, P and Shadrin, D and Gasanov, M and Pukalchik, M}, title = {Large-scale forecasting of Heracleum sosnowskyi habitat suitability under the climate change on publicly available data.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {6128}, pmid = {35414080}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Heracleum ; Plants ; Soil ; }, abstract = {This research aims to establish the possible habitat suitability of Heracleum sosnowskyi (HS), one of the most aggressive invasive plants, in current and future climate conditions across the territory of the European part of Russia. We utilised a species distribution modelling framework using publicly available data of plant occurrence collected in citizen science projects (CSP). Climatic variables and soil characteristics were considered to follow possible dependencies with environmental factors. We applied Random Forest to classify the study area. We addressed the problem of sampling bias in CSP data by optimising the sampling size and implementing a spatial cross-validation scheme. According to the Random Forest model built on the finally selected data shape, more than half of the studied territory in the current climate corresponds to a suitability prediction score higher than 0.25. The forecast of habitat suitability in future climate was highly similar for all climate models. Almost the whole studied territory showed the possibility for spread with an average suitability score of 0.4. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter and precipitation of wettest month demonstrated the highest influence on the HS distribution. Thus, currently, the whole study area, excluding the north, may be considered as s territory with a high risk of HS spreading, while in the future suitable locations for the HS habitat will include high latitudes. We showed that chosen geodata pre-processing, and cross-validation based on geospatial blocks reduced significantly the sampling bias. Obtained predictions could help to assess the risks accompanying the studied plant invasion capturing the patterns of the spread, and can be used for the conservation actions planning.}, }
@article {pmid35414063, year = {2022}, author = {Reed, KA and Wehner, MF and Zarzycki, CM}, title = {Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1905}, pmid = {35414063}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Humans ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Wind ; }, abstract = {The 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most active on record, causing heavy rains, strong storm surges, and high winds. Human activities continue to increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting in an increase of more than 1 °C in the global average surface temperature in 2020 compared to 1850. This increase in temperature led to increases in sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic basin of 0.4-0.9 °C during the 2020 hurricane season. Here we show that human-induced climate change increased the extreme 3-hourly storm rainfall rates and extreme 3-day accumulated rainfall amounts during the full 2020 hurricane season for observed storms that are at least tropical storm strength (>18 m/s) by 10 and 5%, respectively. When focusing on hurricane strength storms (>33 m/s), extreme 3-hourly rainfall rates and extreme 3-day accumulated rainfall amounts increase by 11 and 8%, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid35413947, year = {2022}, author = {Li, Y and Brando, PM and Morton, DC and Lawrence, DM and Yang, H and Randerson, JT}, title = {Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1964}, pmid = {35413947}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forests ; Trees ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Biophysical effects from deforestation have the potential to amplify carbon losses but are often neglected in carbon accounting systems. Here we use both Earth system model simulations and satellite-derived estimates of aboveground biomass to assess losses of vegetation carbon caused by the influence of tropical deforestation on regional climate across different continents. In the Amazon, warming and drying arising from deforestation result in an additional 5.1 ± 3.7% loss of aboveground biomass. Biophysical effects also amplify carbon losses in the Congo (3.8 ± 2.5%) but do not lead to significant additional carbon losses in tropical Asia due to its high levels of annual mean precipitation. These findings indicate that tropical forests may be undervalued in carbon accounting systems that neglect climate feedbacks from surface biophysical changes and that the positive carbon-climate feedback from deforestation-driven climate change is higher than the feedback originating from fossil fuel emissions.}, }
@article {pmid35412814, year = {2022}, author = {Hyde-Smith, L and Zhan, Z and Roelich, K and Mdee, A and Evans, B}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Urban Sanitation: A Systematic Review and Failure Mode Analysis.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {56}, number = {9}, pages = {5306-5321}, pmid = {35412814}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Feces ; Income ; *Sanitation ; Sewage ; }, abstract = {Climate change will stress urban sanitation systems. Although urban sanitation uses various infrastructure types and service systems, current research appears skewed toward a small subset of cases. We conducted a systematic literature review to critically appraise the evidence for climate change impacts on all urban sanitation system types. We included road-based transport networks, an essential part of fecal sludge management systems. We combined the evidence on climate change impacts with the existing knowledge about modes of urban sanitation failures. We found a predominance of studies that assess climate impacts on centralized sewerage in high-income contexts. The implications of climate change for urban nonsewered and complex, fragmented, and (partially) decentralized sanitation systems remain under-researched. In addition, the understanding of the impacts of climate change on urban sanitation systems fails to take a comprehensive citywide perspective considering interdependencies with other sectors and combinations of climate effects. We conclude that the evidence for climate change impacts on urban sanitation systems is weak. To date, research neither adequately represents the variety of urban sanitation infrastructure and service systems nor reflects the operational and management challenges of already stressed systems.}, }
@article {pmid35412145, year = {2022}, author = {Narouei, M and Javadi, SA and Khodagholi, M and Jafari, M and Azizinezhad, R}, title = {Correction to: Modeling the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of the rangeland species Gymnocarpus decander Forssk (case study: Arid region of southeastern Iran).}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {5}, pages = {359}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-022-09920-x}, pmid = {35412145}, issn = {1573-2959}, }
@article {pmid35411661, year = {2022}, author = {Scarponi, D and Nawrot, R and Azzarone, M and Pellegrini, C and Gamberi, F and Trincardi, F and Kowalewski, M}, title = {Resilient biotic response to long-term climate change in the Adriatic Sea.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {13}, pages = {4041-4053}, pmid = {35411661}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Eutrophication ; Fossils ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Preserving adaptive capacities of coastal ecosystems, which are currently facing the ongoing climate warming and a multitude of other anthropogenic impacts, requires an understanding of long-term biotic dynamics in the context of major environmental shifts prior to human disturbances. We quantified responses of nearshore mollusk assemblages to long-term climate and sea-level changes using 223 samples (~71,300 specimens) retrieved from latest Quaternary sediment cores of the Adriatic coastal systems. These cores provide a rare chance to study coastal systems that existed during glacial lowstands. The fossil mollusk record indicates that nearshore assemblages of the penultimate interglacial (Late Pleistocene) shifted in their faunal composition during the subsequent ice age, and then reassembled again with the return of interglacial climate in the Holocene. These shifts point to a climate-driven habitat filtering modulated by dispersal processes. The resilient, rather than persistent or stochastic, response of the mollusk assemblages to long-term environmental changes over at least 125 thousand years highlights the historically unprecedented nature of the ongoing anthropogenic stressors (e.g., pollution, eutrophication, bottom trawling, and invasive species) that are currently shifting coastal regions into novel system states far outside the range of natural variability archived in the fossil record.}, }
@article {pmid35409962, year = {2022}, author = {Petrescu-Mag, RM and Burny, P and Banatean-Dunea, I and Petrescu, DC}, title = {How Climate Change Science Is Reflected in People's Minds. A Cross-Country Study on People's Perceptions of Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {35409962}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Government ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The way people perceive climate change scientific evidence becomes relevant in motivating or demotivating their climate actions. Climate change is one of the most publicized topics globally, and media has become an important "validator" of science. Therefore, science has become more exposed to criticism. Even when most scientists, decision makers, and laypeople agree on the robust evidence of climate science, there is still room for disagreement. The main aim of this paper is to reveal how climate change knowledge generated by science is perceived by the laypeople and to observe a possible gap between them. The study answered two questions "What are the main contrasting climate change topics in the scientific literature?" and "What are Romanian and Belgian participants' perceptions of these topics?". A qualitative approach was chosen for data analysis, using Quirkos software. The present cross-country study showed commonalities and differences of views between the two groups of participants regarding six climate change topics. Divergent perceptions among Belgians and Romanians came out, for example, within the theme "The heroes, villains, and victims of climate change." Thus, whereas Belgians considered all people, including themselves, responsible for climate change, Romanians blamed mostly others, such as big companies, governments, and consumers. Additionally, both groups stated that climate change existed, but contrary to Belgians, Romanians voiced that climate change was often used as an exaggerated and politicized topic. The analysis revealed that perceptions about climate change, its causes, and its impacts are social constructs with a high degree of variability between and within the two national groups. The study argued that the cleavages between scientific literature and people's views were blind spots on which a participatory approach was needed to better cope with climate change challenges.}, }
@article {pmid35409825, year = {2022}, author = {Qu, G and Zhang, Y and Tan, K and Han, J and Qu, W}, title = {Exploring Knowledge Domain and Emerging Trends in Climate Change and Environmental Audit: A Scientometric Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {35409825}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Bibliometrics ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Knowledge ; Publications ; }, abstract = {Environmental audit is inevitably linked to climate change, one immediate target of the auditors is likely to be climate control, and the warming of the Earth and the consequent climatic changes affect us all. What is the link between environmental audit and climate change? What ties together some of these themes between environmental audit and climate change? The interaction between climate change and environmental audit has been one of the most challenging. In this paper, a scientometric analysis of 84 academic publications between 2013 and 2021 related to climate change and environmental audit is presented to characterize the knowledge domain by using the CiteSpace visualization software. First, we present the number of publications, the number of citations, research categories, and journals published through Web of Science database. Secondly, we analyze countries, authors, and journals with outstanding contributions through network analysis. Finally, we use keyword analysis and apply three types of knowledge mapping to our research, cluster view, timeline view, and time zone view, revealing the focus and future directions. We identify the most important topic in the field of climate change and environment audit as represented on the basis of existing literature data which include the Carbon Emissions, Social Capital, Energy Audit, Corporate Governance, Diffusion of Innovation Environmental Management System, and Audit Committee. The results show that climate change and environmental audit publications grew slowly, but the research are widely cited by scholars. Published journals are relatively scattered, but the cited journals are the world's top journals, and most research countries are developed countries. The most productive authors and institutions in this subject area are in UK, Australia, USA, Spain, and Netherlands. There are no leading figures, but the content of their research can be divided into six clusters. Future research content involving city, policy, dynamics, information, biodiversity, conservation and clustering social capital, diffusion of innovation environmental management, and audit committee are the directions for future research. It is worth noting that cities, policies, and adaptability are closely linked to public health.}, }
@article {pmid35408124, year = {2022}, author = {Xue, L and Kappas, M and Wyss, D and Wang, C and Putzenlechner, B and Thi, NP and Chen, J}, title = {Assessment of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Development in Northeast China.}, journal = {Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {35408124}, issn = {1424-8220}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {Vegetation in Northeast China (NEC) has faced dual challenges posed by climate change and human activities. However, the factors dominating vegetation development and their contribution remain unclear. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the response of vegetation in different land cover types, climate regions, and time scales to water availability from 1990 to 2018 based on the relationship between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The effects of human activities and climate change on vegetation development were quantitatively evaluated using the residual analysis method. We found that the area percentage with positive correlation between NDVI and SPEI increased with time scales. NDVI of grass, sparse vegetation, rain-fed crop, and built-up land as well as sub-humid and semi-arid areas (drylands) correlated positively with SPEI, and the correlations increased with time scales. The negatively correlated area was concentrated in humid areas or areas covered by forests and shrubs. Vegetation water surplus in humid areas weakens with warming, and vegetation water constraints in drylands enhance. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration had an overall negative effect on vegetation, and precipitation was a controlling factor for vegetation development in semi-arid areas. A total of 53% of the total area in NEC showed a trend of improvement, which is mainly attributed to human activities (93%), especially through the implementation of ecological restoration projects in NEC. The relative role of human activities and climate change in vegetation degradation areas were 56% and 44%, respectively. Our findings highlight that the government should more explicitly consider the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the influence of human activities and water availability on vegetation under changing climate and improve the resilience of regional water resources. The relative proportions and roles map of climate change and human activities in vegetation change areas provide a basis for government to formulate local-based management policies.}, }
@article {pmid35405230, year = {2022}, author = {Lemes, P and Barbosa, FG and Naimi, B and Araújo, MB}, title = {Dispersal abilities favor commensalism in animal-plant interactions under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {835}, number = {}, pages = {155157}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155157}, pmid = {35405230}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Anura ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Plants ; *Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal limitations might affect the responses of Brazil nut-dependent frogs facing projected climate change. Using ecological niche modelling and dispersal simulations, we forecast the future distributions of the Brazil nut tree and three commensalist frog species over time (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090) in the regional rivalry (SSP370) scenario that includes great challenges to mitigation and adaptation. With the exception of one species, projections point to a decrease in suitable habitats of up to 40.6%. For frog species with potential reductions of co-occurrence areas, this is expected to reduce up to 23.8% of suitable areas for binomial animal-plant relationships. Even so, biotic interactions should not be lost over time. Species will depend on their own dispersal abilities to reach analogous climates in the future for maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa. However, ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa should be maintained in accordance with their own dispersal ability. When dispersal limitation is included in the models, the suitable range of all three frog species is reduced considerably by the end of the century. This highlights the importance of dispersal limitation inclusion for forecasting future distribution ranges when biotic interactions matter.}, }
@article {pmid35403301, year = {2022}, author = {Guo, PL and Guo, ZQ and Liu, XD}, title = {Cuticular protein genes involve heat acclimation of insect larvae under global warming.}, journal = {Insect molecular biology}, volume = {31}, number = {4}, pages = {519-532}, doi = {10.1111/imb.12777}, pmid = {35403301}, issn = {1365-2583}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Global Warming ; Insecta ; Larva/genetics ; *Moths/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Cuticular proteins (CPs) play important roles in insect growth and development. However, it is unknown whether CPs are related to heat tolerance. Cnaphalocrocis medinalis, a serious pest of rice, occurs in summer and exhibits strong adaptability to high temperature, but the underlying mechanism is unclear. Here, the role of CP genes in heat acclimation was studied. Heat tolerance of the heat-acclimated larvae was significantly stronger than the unacclimated larvae. The cuticular protein content in the heat-acclimated larvae was higher than that of the unacclimated larvae. 191 presumed CP genes of C. medinalis (CmCPs) were identified. Expression patterns of 14 CmCPs were different between the heat acclimated (S39) and unacclimated (S27) larvae under heat stress. CmCPs were specifically expressed in epidermis and the head except CmCPR20 mainly expressed in Malpighian tubules. CmCPR20 was upregulated in S39 while downregulated in S27, but CmTweedle1 and CmCPG1 were upregulated in S27 and downregulated in S39. RNAi CmTweedle1 or CmCPG1 remarkably decreased heat tolerance and cuticular protein content of the heat-acclimated larvae but not the unacclimated larvae. RNAi CmCPR20 decreased heat tolerance and cuticular protein content of the unacclimated larvae but not the heat-acclimated larvae. CmTweedle1 and CmCPG1 genes involve heat acclimation of C. medinalis.}, }
@article {pmid35402099, year = {2022}, author = {Becerra-López, JL and Cruz-Elizalde, R and Ramírez-Bautista, A and Magno-Benítez, I and Ballesteros-Barrera, C and Alvarado-Díaz, J and Bryson, RW and Hernández-Salinas, U and Díaz-Marín, CA and Berriozabal-Islas, C and Fraire-Galindo, K and Tello-Ruiz, J and Czaja, A and Torres-Delgado, MG}, title = {Does size matter? An analysis of the niche width and vulnerability to climate change of fourteen species of the genus Crotalus from North America.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e13154}, pmid = {35402099}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; *Crotalus ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; North America ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The niche comprises the set of abiotic and biotic environmental conditions in which a species can live. Consequently, those species that present broader niches are expected to be more tolerant to changes in climatic variations than those species that present reduced niches. In this study, we estimate the amplitude of the climatic niche of fourteen species of rattlesnakes of the genus Crotalus to evaluate whether those species that present broader niches are less susceptible to the loss of climatically suitable zones due to the projected climate change for the time period 2021-2040. Our results suggest that for the species under study, the breadth of the niche is not a factor that determines their vulnerability to climatic variations. However, 71.4% of the species will experience increasingly inadequate habitat conditions, mainly due to the increase in temperature and the contribution that this variable has in the creation of climatically suitable zones for most of these species.}, }
@article {pmid35398413, year = {2022}, author = {Xu, X and Jiao, F and Liu, H and Gong, H and Zou, C and Lin, N and Xue, P and Zhang, M and Wang, K}, title = {Persistence of increasing vegetation gross primary production under the interactions of climate change and land use changes in Northwest China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {834}, number = {}, pages = {155086}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155086}, pmid = {35398413}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Substantial evidence suggests a widespread increase in global vegetation gross primary production (GPP) since the 1980s. If the increasing trend of GPP remains unchanged in the future, it is considered to be the persistence of increasing GPP. However, it is still unknown whether the vegetation increasing GPP is persistent under the interactive effects of climate change and land use changes in Northwest China. Using the Mann-Kendall and boosted regression tree models, we constructed the relationship between the increasing GPP and environmental variables, and further explored its persistence under the interactions between climate change and land use changes under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The results indicated that: (1) Land use change (8.01%) was the most important variable for the increasing GPP. The surface net solar radiation (6.79%), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (6.78%) were also very important. Moreover, mean temperature of the warmest quarter had strong interactions with mean precipitation of the warmest quarter (9.82%) and land use change (8.24%). (2) Under the SSP245 scenario, the persistence of increasing GPP accounted for 65.06% of the area in 2100, mainly located in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, while it only accounted for 19.50% under the SSP585 scenario. (3) The SSP245 scenario moderate warming leads to a slight ecosystem benefit, with more areas developing an increase in GPP due to climate and land use change factors. On the other hand, under SSP585 scenario, there are widespread losses of increasing GPP, driven largely by climate change, while ecological engineering is conducive to the persistence of increasing GPP in southern Qinghai. The results highlight the importance of the interactive effects of climate change and land use changes for predicting the persistence of vegetation change.}, }
@article {pmid35398315, year = {2022}, author = {Vijay, V and Kapoor, R and Singh, P and Hiloidhari, M and Ghosh, P}, title = {Sustainable utilization of biomass resources for decentralized energy generation and climate change mitigation: A regional case study in India.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {212}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {113257}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.113257}, pmid = {35398315}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Coal ; India ; Livestock ; *Manure ; }, abstract = {Clean energy transition via utilizing biomass resources has been projected as an important climate change mitigation strategy. A vital characteristic of biomass is its localized nature; therefore, bioenergy utilization should follow decentralized planning. Agrarian countries like India can take benefit of its large agricultural biomass waste pool to produce clean renewable energy. However, prior knowledge of spatio-temporal distribution, competing uses, and biomass characteristics are necessary for successful bioenergy planning. This paper assesses biomass resource and its power generation potential at different agro-climatic zone levels in the state of Rajasthan, India considering crop residue biomass (25 different crop residues from 14 crops) and livestock manure (from cattle, buffalo, and poultry). Uncertainties associated with the availability of biomass and the power generation potential are assessed for each agro-climatic zone under different scenarios. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from biomass-based power generations are also estimated and compared with biomass-equivalent coal power plants. It is observed that the annual biomass power potential of Rajasthan is 3056 MW (2496 MW from crop residues and 560 MW from livestock manure). Scenario analysis suggests that the potential varies from 2445 to 6045 MW under different biomass availability and power plant operating conditions. Annual GHGs emissions due to biomass power generation is 5053 kt CO2eq. Replacing coal-based power with biomass power would result in annual GHGs savings of 11412 kt CO2eq. The paper also discusses various carriers and barriers viz. logistics, institutional, financial and technical in setting up decentralized bioenergy plants. Outcomes of the present study are expected to assist renewable energy planners in India.}, }
@article {pmid35397213, year = {2022}, author = {Vineis, P and Romanello, M and Michelozzi, P and Martuzzi, M}, title = {Health co-benefits of climate change action in Italy.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {e293-e294}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00061-4}, pmid = {35397213}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {MR/S019669/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Italy ; }, }
@article {pmid35396664, year = {2023}, author = {Poletti, M and Preti, A and Raballo, A}, title = {From economic crisis and climate change through COVID-19 pandemic to Ukraine war: a cumulative hit-wave on adolescent future thinking and mental well-being.}, journal = {European child &amp; adolescent psychiatry}, volume = {32}, number = {9}, pages = {1815-1816}, pmid = {35396664}, issn = {1435-165X}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Humans ; *Climate Change ; Economic Recession ; Pandemics ; Ukraine/epidemiology ; *COVID-19 ; }, }
@article {pmid35396388, year = {2022}, author = {Kirschner, P and Perez, MF and Záveská, E and Sanmartín, I and Marquer, L and Schlick-Steiner, BC and Alvarez, N and ,  and Steiner, FM and Schönswetter, P}, title = {Congruent evolutionary responses of European steppe biota to late Quaternary climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1921}, pmid = {35396388}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; *Biological Evolution ; Biota ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Quaternary climatic oscillations had a large impact on European biogeography. Alternation of cold and warm stages caused recurrent glaciations, massive vegetation shifts, and large-scale range alterations in many species. The Eurasian steppe biome and its grasslands are a noteworthy example; they underwent climate-driven, large-scale contractions during warm stages and expansions during cold stages. Here, we evaluate the impact of these range alterations on the late Quaternary demography of several phylogenetically distant plant and insect species, typical of the Eurasian steppes. We compare three explicit demographic hypotheses by applying an approach combining convolutional neural networks with approximate Bayesian computation. We identified congruent demographic responses of cold stage expansion and warm stage contraction across all species, but also species-specific effects. The demographic history of the Eurasian steppe biota reflects major paleoecological turning points in the late Quaternary and emphasizes the role of climate as a driving force underlying patterns of genetic variance on the biome level.}, }
@article {pmid35395349, year = {2022}, author = {Silva, ARR and Malheiro, C and Loureiro, S and González-Alcaraz, MN}, title = {Toxicity of historically metal(loid)-contaminated soils to Folsomia candida under the influence of climate change alterations.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {305}, number = {}, pages = {119256}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2022.119256}, pmid = {35395349}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; *Arthropods ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Metals ; Soil ; *Soil Pollutants/analysis/toxicity ; }, abstract = {Global warming is drastically altering the climate conditions of our planet. Soils will be among the most affected components of terrestrial ecosystems, especially in contaminated areas. In this study we investigated if changes in climate conditions (air temperature and soil moisture) affect the toxicity of historically metal(loid)-contaminated soils to the invertebrate Folsomia candida, followed by an assessment of its recovery capacity. Ecotoxicity tests (assessing survival, reproduction) were performed in field soils affected by metal(loid)s under different climate scenarios, simulated by individually changing air temperature or soil moisture conditions. The scenarios tested were: standard conditions (20°C + 50% soil water holding capacity-WHC); increased air temperature (daily fluctuation of 20-30°C + 50% WHC); soil drought (20°C + 25% WHC); soil flood (20°C + 75% WHC). Recovery potential was assessed under standard conditions in clean soil. Increased temperature was the major climate condition negatively affecting collembolans performance (decreased survival and reproduction), regardless of metal(loid) contamination. Drought and flood conditions presented less pronounced effects. When it was possible to move to the recovery phase (enough juveniles in exposure phase), F. candida was apparently able to recover from the exposure to metal(loid) contamination and/or climate alterations. The present study showed that forecasted climate alterations in areas already affected by contamination should be considered to improve environmental risk assessment.}, }
@article {pmid35395025, year = {2022}, author = {Yang, J and Jiang, P and Huang, Y and Yang, Y and Wang, R and Yang, Y}, title = {Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {e0266133}, pmid = {35395025}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Pteroceltis tatarinowii (Pteroceltis: Ulmaceae) is a deciduous tree that has a cultivation history of more than 2000 years in China. As an excellent afforestation tree species and rare and endangered tertiary relic plant, P. tatarinowii has high ecological protection value. Due to the forest destruction caused by predatory logging and natural environmental factors, the population of P. tatarinowii in China has decreased significantly. In this study, the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii in China under climate change was predicted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS based on 223 effective distribution points of P. tatarinowii and 11 environmental variables. The results showed that: (1) the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was extremely high, and the areas under curve (AUC) value of the training data was 0.936; The area of the potential suitable habitat area of P. tatarinowii under current climate condition was 180.84×104 km2, and mainly located in the central and southeast regions of China. (2) The domain environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii were min temperature of coldest month (12.1~22.7°C), isothermality (26.6~35.8), mean diurnal range 6.9~9.3°C and precipitation of wettest month (189.5 ~955.5 mm). (3) In 2050s and 2070s, compared with current (4.19×104 km2), the area of highly suitable habitat will increase by 0.2%-0.3% (RCP2.6) and 1.22%-3.84% (RCP8.5) respectively. while the poorly, moderately and total suitable habitats will decrease. The gravity center of P. tatarinowii showed a trend of migration to higher latitudes and northern regions in the future. These results will provide theoretical basis for cultivation management and resource protection of P. tatarinowii.}, }
@article {pmid35393324, year = {2022}, author = {Montoro-Ramírez, EM and Parra-Anguita, L and Álvarez-Nieto, C and Parra, G and López-Medina, I}, title = {Effects of climate change in the elderly's health: a scoping review protocol.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {e058063}, pmid = {35393324}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Aged ; *Climate Change ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; Peer Review ; *Research Design ; Review Literature as Topic ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is a global problem that affects human health, especially the most vulnerable groups, including the elderly. However, no scope review includes the perspective of institutions specialised in climate change and health and whose reports are the basis for policies orientated on the environmental health. Therefore, this study aims to identify these effects on older people health. The results will allow health professionals to have valuable information enabling them to provide quality care in meeting the demand that this situation is producing.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A scoping review of the relevant literature will be performed from 2008 to 2021. The Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines and the PRISMA-Scoping Review Extension checklist will be used. A peer-reviewed search will be conducted using the electronic databases Medline, Scopus, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Cochrane, PsycINFO and Cuiden Plus between October and December 2021. Original quantitative studies and reports from official agencies on the effects of climate change on the elderly health in any health and geographical context will be included. Literature selection will be made by two reviewers. The table format used for data extraction will be reviewed by the review team and tested by two reviewers.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study does not require approval by an ethics committee to be conducted. This article will result in the mapping of the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the health of the elderly. The results will be published in scientific journals to be accessible to health professionals in the creation of care plans for the elderly at climate risk.}, }
@article {pmid35391645, year = {2022}, author = {Laurent, J and Lavergne, E and Couteau, J and Le Floch, S and Ouddane, B and Cachot, J and Davail, B and Clérandeau, C and Devin, S and Fisson, C and Devaux, A and Amara, R and Diop, M and Pichereau, V and Laroche, J}, title = {Impacts of chemical stress, season, and climate change on the flounder population of the highly anthropised Seine estuary (France).}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {39}, pages = {59751-59769}, pmid = {35391645}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {Seine Aval 6 - HQFish//Groupement d'Int&#xe9;r&#xea;t Public Seine-Aval/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Estuaries ; *Flounder/metabolism ; France ; Seasons ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {The main objective of this study was to improve our knowledge on the responses of fish populations to multistress (diffuse pollution and warming waters) in estuaries. Adult flounders were caught in two estuaries in the Eastern English Channel: the heavily polluted Seine estuary vs the moderately contaminated Canche estuary. Fish samplings were conducted in January just before the reproduction period, and in July when gonads were at rest. The overall rise in coastal winter water temperatures detected over the Channel impairs the flounder's phenology of reproduction in the two estuaries, inducing a delay of maturation process and probably also spawning. The higher liver histopathology index in Seine vs Canche could be the consequence of the fish exposition to a complex cocktail of contaminants in a strongly industrialized estuary. Higher levels of neurotoxicity, gill lipid peroxidation, and liver EROD activity were observed in Seine vs Canche. Furthermore, a possible impairment in mitochondrial metabolism was suggested in the Seine flounder population. We confirmed in this study the potential role of two membrane lipids (sphingomyelin and phosphatidylserine) in the resistance towards oxidative stress in Seine and Canche. Finally, we suggest that the Seine flounder population (and possibly the connected Eastern English Channel flounder populations over the French Coast) could be seriously impacted in the future by multistress: higher winter temperatures and chemical contamination.}, }
@article {pmid35390507, year = {2022}, author = {Swaegers, J and Koch, EL}, title = {Gene expression studies of plastic and evolutionary responses to global warming.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {51}, number = {}, pages = {100918}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2022.100918}, pmid = {35390507}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Gene Expression ; *Global Warming ; }, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity can be a rapid response for coping with global warming, yet may be insufficient to protect species from extinction. Evolutionary adaptation may reinforce adaptive or oppose maladaptive plastic responses. With advances in technology whole transcriptomes can provide us with an unprecedented overview of genes and functional processes underlying the interplay between plasticity and evolution. We advocate that insects provide ideal opportunities to study plasticity in non-adapted and thermally adapted populations to infer reaction norms across the whole transcriptome ('reactionomes'). This can advance our understanding of how the interplay between plasticity and evolution shapes responses to warming. So far, a limited number of studies suggest predominantly maladaptive plastic responses to novel environments that are reduced with time, but much more research is needed to infer general patterns.}, }
@article {pmid35390383, year = {2022}, author = {Douchet, L and Goarant, C and Mangeas, M and Menkes, C and Hinjoy, S and Herbreteau, V}, title = {Unraveling the invisible leptospirosis in mainland Southeast Asia and its fate under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {832}, number = {}, pages = {155018}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155018}, pmid = {35390383}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Leptospirosis/epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Leptospirosis is a neglected waterborne zoonosis of growing concern in tropical and low-income regions. Endemic in Southeast Asia, its distribution and environmental factors such as climate controlling its dynamics remain poorly documented. In this paper, we investigate for the first time the current and future leptospirosis burden at a local scale in mainland Southeast Asia. We adjusted machine-learning models on incidence reports from the Thai surveillance system to identify environmental determinants of leptospirosis. The explanatory variables tested in our models included climate, topographic, land cover and soil variables. The model performing the best in cross-validation was used to estimate the current incidence regionally in Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos. It then allowed to predict the spatial distribution of leptospirosis future burden from 2021 to 2100 based on an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model projections and 4 Shared Socio-economics Pathways ranging from the most optimistic to the no-climate policy outcomes (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Leptospirosis incidence was best estimated by 10 environmental variables: four landscape-, four rainfall-, two temperature-related variables. Of all tested scenario, the worst-case scenario of climate change (SSP5-8.5) surprisingly appeared as the best-case scenario for the future of leptospirosis since it would induce a significant global decline in disease incidence in Southeast Asia mainly driven by the increasing temperatures. These global patterns are however contrasted regionally with some regions showing increased incidence in the future. Our work highlights climate and the environment as major drivers of leptospirosis incidence in Southeast Asia. Applying our model to regions where leptospirosis is not routinely monitored suggests an overlooked burden in the region. As our model focuses on leptospirosis responses to environmental drivers only, some other factors, such as poverty, lifestyle or behavioral changes, could further influence these estimated future patterns.}, }
@article {pmid35389535, year = {2022}, author = {Iram, N and Maher, DT and Lovelock, CE and Baker, T and Cadier, C and Adame, MF}, title = {Climate change mitigation and improvement of water quality from the restoration of a subtropical coastal wetland.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {32}, number = {5}, pages = {e2620}, pmid = {35389535}, issn = {1939-5582}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Soil ; Water Quality ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Coastal wetland restoration is an important activity to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, improve water quality, and reach the Sustainable Development Goals. However, many uncertainties remain in connection with achieving, measuring, and reporting success from coastal wetland restoration. We measured levels of carbon (C) abatement and nitrogen (N) removal potential of restored coastal wetlands in subtropical Queensland, Australia. The site was originally a supratidal forest composed of Melaleuca spp. that was cleared and drained in the 1990s for sugarcane production. In 2010, tidal inundation was reinstated, and a mosaic of coastal vegetation (saltmarshes, mangroves, and supratidal forests) emerged. We measured soil GHG fluxes (CH4 , N2 O, CO2) and sequestration of organic C in the trees and soil to estimate the net C abatement associated with the reference, converted, and restored sites. To assess the influence of restoration on water quality improvement, we measured denitrification and soil N accumulation. We calculated C abatement of 18.5 Mg CO2-eq ha[-1] year[-1] when sugarcane land transitioned to supratidal forests, 11.0 Mg CO2-eq ha[-1] year[-1] when the land transitioned to mangroves, and 6.2 Mg CO2-eq ha[-1] year[-1] when the land transitioned to saltmarshes. The C abatement was due to tree growth, soil accumulation, and reduced N2 O emissions due to the cessation of fertilization. Carbon abatement was still positive, even accounting for CH4 emissions, which increased in the wetlands due to flooding and N2 O production due to enhanced levels of denitrification. Coastal wetland restoration in this subtropical setting effectively reduces CO2 emissions while providing additional cobenefits, notably water quality improvement.}, }
@article {pmid35389171, year = {2022}, author = {Abubakar, A and Yusoff Ishak, M and Makmom, AA}, title = {Correction to: Impacts of and adaptation to climate change on the oil palm in Malaysia: a systematic review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {21}, pages = {32303}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-022-19547-7}, pmid = {35389171}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid35389053, year = {2022}, author = {Töpfer, R and Trapp, O}, title = {A cool climate perspective on grapevine breeding: climate change and sustainability are driving forces for changing varieties in a traditional market.}, journal = {TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik}, volume = {135}, number = {11}, pages = {3947-3960}, pmid = {35389053}, issn = {1432-2242}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Germany ; }, abstract = {A multitude of diverse breeding goals need to be combined in a new cultivar, which always forces to compromise. The biggest challenge grapevine breeders face is the extraordinarily complex trait of wine quality, which is the all-pervasive and most debated characteristic. Since the 1920s, Germany runs continuous grapevine breeding programmes. This continuity was the key to success and lead to various new cultivars on the market, so called PIWIs. Initially, introduced pests and diseases such as phylloxera, powdery and downy mildew were the driving forces for breeding. However, preconceptions about the wine quality of new resistant selections impeded the market introduction. These preconceptions are still echoing today and may be the reason in large parts of the viticultural community for: (1) ignoring substantial breeding progress, and (2) sticking to successful markets of well-known varietal wines or blends (e.g. Chardonnay, Cabernet Sauvignon, Riesling). New is the need to improve viticulture´s sustainability and to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Climate change with its extreme weather will impose the need for a change in cultivars in many wine growing regions. Therefore, a paradigm shift is knocking on the door: new varieties (PIWIs) versus traditional varieties for climate adapted and sustainable viticulture. However, it will be slow process and viticulture is politically well advised to pave the way to variety innovation. In contrast to the widely available PIWIs, competitive cultivars created by means of new breeding technologies (NBT, e.g. through CRISPR/Cas) are still decades from introduction to the market.}, }
@article {pmid35388965, year = {2022}, author = {Lind, L and Eckstein, RL and Relyea, RA}, title = {Direct and indirect effects of climate change on distribution and community composition of macrophytes in lentic systems.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {97}, number = {4}, pages = {1677-1690}, pmid = {35388965}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {Aquatic Organisms ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Introduced Species ; Lakes/chemistry ; Water ; }, abstract = {Macrophytes are an important part of freshwater ecosystems and they have direct and indirect roles in keeping the water clear and providing structure and habitats for other aquatic organisms. Currently, climate change is posing a major threat to macrophyte communities by altering the many drivers that determine macrophyte abundance and composition. We synthesise current literature to examine the direct effects of climate change (i.e. changes in CO2 , temperature, and precipitation patterns) on aquatic macrophytes in lakes as well as indirect effects via invasive species and nutrient dynamics. The combined effects of climate change are likely to lead to an increased abundance and distribution of emergent and floating species, and a decreased abundance and distribution of submerged macrophytes. In small shallow lakes, these processes are likely to be faster than in deep temperate lakes; with lower light levels, water level fluctuations and increases in temperature, the systems will become dominated by algae. In general, specialized macrophyte species in high-latitude and high-altitude areas will decrease in number while more competitive invasive species are likely to outcompete native species. Given that the majority of endemic species reside in tropical lakes, climate change, together with other anthropogenic pressures, might cause the extinction of a large number of endemic species. Lakes at higher altitudes in tropical areas could therefore potentially be a hotspot for future conservation efforts for protecting endemic macrophyte species. In response to a combination of climate-change induced threats, the macrophyte community might collapse, which will change the status of lakes and may initiate a negative feedback loop that will affect entire lake ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid35388477, year = {2022}, author = {Pastore, MA and Classen, AT and D'Amato, AW and Foster, JR and Adair, EC}, title = {Cold-air pools as microrefugia for ecosystem functions in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {103}, number = {8}, pages = {e3717}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.3717}, pmid = {35388477}, issn = {1939-9170}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; *Ecosystem ; Microclimate ; Refugium ; }, abstract = {Cold-air pooling is a global phenomenon that frequently sustains low temperatures in sheltered, low-lying depressions and valleys and drives other key environmental conditions, such as soil temperature, soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit, frost frequency, and winter dynamics. Local climate patterns in areas prone to cold-air pooling are partly decoupled from regional climates and thus may be buffered from macroscale climate change. There is compelling evidence from studies across the globe that cold-air pooling impacts plant communities and species distributions, making these decoupled microclimate areas potentially important microrefugia for species under climate warming. Despite interest in the potential for cold-air pools to enable species persistence under warming, studies investigating the effects of cold-air pooling on ecosystem processes are scarce. Because local temperatures and vegetation composition are critical drivers of ecosystem processes like carbon cycling and storage, cold-air pooling may also act to preserve ecosystem functions. We review research exploring the ecological impacts of cold-air pooling with a focus on vegetation, and then present a new conceptual framework in which cold-air pooling creates feedbacks between species and ecosystem properties that generate unique hotspots for carbon accrual in some systems relative to areas more vulnerable to regional climate change impacts. Finally, we describe key steps to motivate future research investigating the potential for cold-air pools to serve as microrefugia for ecosystem functions under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35388036, year = {2022}, author = {Bozorg-Haddad, O and Dehghan, P and Zolghadr-Asli, B and Singh, VP and Chu, X and Loáiciga, HA}, title = {System dynamics modeling of lake water management under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {5828}, pmid = {35388036}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; *Lakes ; Water ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Lake Urmia, the twentieth largest lake in the world, is the most valuable aquatic ecosystem in Iran. The lake water level has decreased in recent years due to human activities and climate change. Several studies have highlighted the significant roles of climatic and anthropogenic factors on the shrinkage of the lake. Management policies for water resources harvesting must be adopted to adapt to climate change and avoid the consequent problems stemming from the drought affecting Lake Urmia, and rationing must be applied to the upstream water demands. This study analyzes strategies and evaluates their effectiveness in overcoming the Urmia Lake crisis. Specifically, system dynamics analysis was performed for simulating the water volume of Lake Urmia, and the Hadley Centre coupled model was applied to project surface temperature and precipitation for two future periods: 2021-2050 and 2051-2080. Six management scenarios were considered for decreasing the allocation of agricultural water demand corresponding to two options: (1) one-reservoir option (Bukan reservoir only), and (2) six-reservoir option. The net inflow of Urmia Lake was simulated for the two future periods with the IHACRES model and with artificial neural network models under the six management scenarios. The annual average volumes of Lake Urmia would be 30 × 10[9] and 12 × 10[9] m[3] over the first and second future periods, respectively, without considering the management scenarios. The lake volumes would rise by about 50% and 75% for the first and second periods, respectively under the management scenarios that involve strict protective measures and elimination of the effect of all dams and their reservoirs. Implementing strict measures would increase the annual average lake volume to 21 × 10[9] m[3] in the second period; yet, this volume would be less than the long-term average and strategic volume. The human water use would be completely eliminated under Scenario 6. Nevertheless, Lake Urmia would experience a considerable loss of storage because of drought.}, }
@article {pmid35387618, year = {2022}, author = {Di Napoli, C and McGushin, A and Romanello, M and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Cai, W and Chambers, J and Dasgupta, S and Escobar, LE and Kelman, I and Kjellstrom, T and Kniveton, D and Liu, Y and Liu, Z and Lowe, R and Martinez-Urtaza, J and McMichael, C and Moradi-Lakeh, M and Murray, KA and Rabbaniha, M and Semenza, JC and Shi, L and Tabatabaei, M and Trinanes, JA and Vu, BN and Brimicombe, C and Robinson, EJ}, title = {Tracking the impacts of climate change on human health via indicators: lessons from the Lancet Countdown.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {663}, pmid = {35387618}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {P30 ES019776/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; 209734/Z/17/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases ; Humans ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the past decades, climate change has been impacting human lives and health via extreme weather and climate events and alterations in labour capacity, food security, and the prevalence and geographical distribution of infectious diseases across the globe. Climate change and health indicators (CCHIs) are workable tools designed to capture the complex set of interdependent interactions through which climate change is affecting human health. Since 2015, a novel sub-set of CCHIs, focusing on climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability indicators (CCIEVIs) has been developed, refined, and integrated by Working Group 1 of the "Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change", an international collaboration across disciplines that include climate, geography, epidemiology, occupation health, and economics.<br><br>DISCUSSION: This research in practice article is a reflective narrative documenting how we have developed CCIEVIs as a discrete set of quantifiable indicators that are updated annually to provide the most recent picture of climate change's impacts on human health. In our experience, the main challenge was to define globally relevant indicators that also have local relevance and as such can support decision making across multiple spatial scales. We found a hazard, exposure, and vulnerability framework to be effective in this regard. We here describe how we used such a framework to define CCIEVIs based on both data availability and the indicators' relevance to climate change and human health. We also report on how CCIEVIs have been improved and added to, detailing the underlying data and methods, and in doing so provide the defining quality criteria for Lancet Countdown CCIEVIs.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our experience shows that CCIEVIs can effectively contribute to a world-wide monitoring system that aims to track, communicate, and harness evidence on climate-induced health impacts towards effective intervention strategies. An ongoing challenge is how to improve CCIEVIs so that the description of the linkages between climate change and human health can become more and more comprehensive.}, }
@article {pmid35387022, year = {2021}, author = {Gehrig, R and Clot, B}, title = {50 Years of Pollen Monitoring in Basel (Switzerland) Demonstrate the Influence of Climate Change on Airborne Pollen.}, journal = {Frontiers in allergy}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {677159}, pmid = {35387022}, issn = {2673-6101}, abstract = {Climate change and human impact on vegetation modify the timing and the intensity of the pollen season. The 50 years of pollen monitoring in Basel, Switzerland provide a unique opportunity to study long-term changes in pollen data. Since 1969, pollen monitoring has been carried out in Basel with a Hirst-type pollen trap. Pollen season parameters for start dates, end dates and duration were calculated with different pollen season definitions, which are commonly used in aerobiology. Intensity was analyzed by the annual pollen integral (APIn), peak value and the number of days above specific thresholds. Linear trends were calculated with the non-parametric Mann Kendall method with a Theil-Sen linear trend slope. During the last 50 years, linear increase of the monthly mean temperatures in Basel was 0.95-1.95°C in the 3 winter months, 2-3.7°C in spring months and 2.75-3.85°C in summer months. Due to this temperature increase, the start dates of the pollen season for most of the spring pollen species have advanced, from 7 days for Poaceae to 29 days for Taxus/Cupressaceae. End dates of the pollen season depend on the chosen pollen season definition. Negative trends predominate, i.e., the pollen season mostly ends earlier. Trends in the length of the pollen season depend even more on the season definitions and results are contradictory and often not significant. The intensity of the pollen season of almost all tree pollen taxa increased significantly, while the Poaceae pollen season did not change and the pollen season of herbs decreased, except for Urticaceae pollen. Climate change has a particular impact on the pollen season, but the definitions used for the pollen season parameters are crucial for the calculation of the trends. The most stable results were achieved with threshold definitions that indicate regular occurrence above certain concentrations. Percentage definitions are not recommended for trend studies when the annual pollen integral changed significantly.}, }
@article {pmid35387018, year = {2021}, author = {Damialis, A and Smith, M and Galán, C}, title = {Editorial: Climate Change and Aeroallergens.}, journal = {Frontiers in allergy}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {794430}, doi = {10.3389/falgy.2021.794430}, pmid = {35387018}, issn = {2673-6101}, }
@article {pmid35386984, year = {2021}, author = {Levetin, E}, title = {Aeroallergens and Climate Change in Tulsa, Oklahoma: Long-Term Trends in the South Central United States.}, journal = {Frontiers in allergy}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {726445}, pmid = {35386984}, issn = {2673-6101}, abstract = {Climate change is having a significant effect on many allergenic plants resulting in increased pollen production and shifts in plant phenology. Although these effects have been well-studied in some areas of the world, few studies have focused on long-term changes in allergenic pollen in the South Central United States. This study examined airborne pollen, temperature, and precipitation in Tulsa, Oklahoma over 25 to 34 years. Pollen was monitored with a Hirst-type spore trap on the roof of a building at the University of Tulsa and meteorology data were obtained from the National Weather Service. Changes in total pollen intensity were examined along with detailed analyses of the eight most abundant pollen types in the Tulsa atmosphere. In addition to pollen intensity, changes in pollen season start date, end date, peak date and season duration were also analyzed. Results show a trend to increasing temperatures with a significant increase in annual maximum temperature. There was a non-significant trend toward increasing total pollen and a significant increase in tree pollen over time. Several individual taxa showed significant increases in pollen intensity over the study period including spring Cupressaceae and Quercus pollen, while Ambrosia pollen showed a significant decrease. Data from the current study also indicated that the pollen season started earlier for spring pollinating trees and Poaceae. Significant correlations with preseason temperature may explain the earlier pollen season start dates along with a trend toward increasing March temperatures. More research is needed to understand the global impact of climate change on allergenic species, especially from other regions that have not been studied.}, }
@article {pmid35386396, year = {2022}, author = {Laverdière, JP and Lenz, P and Nadeau, S and Depardieu, C and Isabel, N and Perron, M and Beaulieu, J and Bousquet, J}, title = {Breeding for adaptation to climate change: genomic selection for drought response in a white spruce multi-site polycross test.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {383-402}, pmid = {35386396}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {With climate change, increasingly intense and frequent drought episodes will be affecting water availability for boreal tree species, prompting tree breeders and forest managers to consider adaptation to drought stress as a priority in their reforestation efforts. We used a 19-year-old polycross progeny test of the model conifer white spruce (Picea glauca) replicated on two sites affected by distinct drought episodes at different ages to estimate the genetic control and the potential for improvement of drought response in addition to conventional cumulative growth and wood quality traits. Drought response components were measured from dendrochronological signatures matching drought episodes in wood ring increment cores. We found that trees with more vigorous growth during their lifespan resisted better during the current year of a drought episode when the drought had more severe effects. Phenotypic data were also analyzed using genomic prediction (GBLUP) relying on the genomic relationship matrix of multi-locus gene SNP marker information, and conventional analysis (ABLUP) based on validated pedigree information. The accuracy of predicted breeding values for drought response components was marginally lower than that for conventional traits and comparable between GBLUP and ABLUP. Genetic correlations were generally low and nonsignificant between drought response components and conventional traits, except for resistance which was positively correlated to tree height. Heritability estimates for the components of drought response were slightly lower than for conventional traits, but similar single-trait genetic gains could be obtained. Multi-trait genomic selection simulations indicated that it was possible to improve simultaneously for all traits on both sites while sacrificing little on gain in tree height. In a context of rapid climate change, our results suggest that with careful phenotypic assessment, drought response may be considered in multi-trait improvement of white spruce, with accelerated screening of large numbers of candidates and selection at young age with genomic selection.}, }
@article {pmid35385980, year = {2023}, author = {Gwambene, B and Liwenga, E and Mung'ong'o, C}, title = {Climate Change and Variability Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security for the Smallholder Farmers in Rungwe, Tanzania.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {71}, number = {1}, pages = {3-14}, pmid = {35385980}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Humans ; *Farmers ; Tanzania ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Agriculture/methods ; Crops, Agricultural ; Food Security ; }, abstract = {Climate change and variability pose serious challenges among smallholder farmers in developing countries. Low adaptive capacity aggravates the challenges to farming activities and ecosystem management. This study employed survey methods to assess the implications of climate variability and environmental changes in agricultural production and food security. The study used different research methods, including literature review, participatory rural appraisal, household questionnaire, key informant interview and field observation for data collection. The data collected were organised, triangulated, synthesised, processed, analysed using thematic and trend analyses for qualitative data and Microsoft Excel and SPSS 20 software programme manipulation for quantitative data. Severe and frequent climatic extremes that include drought, heavy rainfall, temperature variations, and strong winds are smallholder farmers' main challenges in production. As a result, the production trends and productivity of the main rainfed crops decreased significantly. The duration of the growing season also decreased, negatively affecting the local food supplies. The statistical results signify a robust negative correlation between climate variability and the production of the leading food crops (X[2] = 6.00 with p = 0.199 and X[2] = 10.00 with p = 0.350). In addressing the challenges, improving farming practices such as crop diversification and improved extension services were suggested. However, such options would require appropriate environmentally friendly technologies in an enabling environment both locally and nationally.}, }
@article {pmid35384686, year = {2022}, author = {Dos Santos, M and John, J and Garland, R and Palakatsela, R and Banos, A and Martens, P and Nemukula, B and Ramathuba, M and Nkohla, F and Lenyibi, K}, title = {Climate change and health within the South African context: A thematic content analysis study of climate change and health expert interviews.}, journal = {African journal of primary health care &amp; family medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-e12}, pmid = {35384686}, issn = {2071-2936}, mesh = {Black People ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Humans ; *National Health Programs ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change presents an unprecedented and urgent threat to human health and survival. South Africa's health response will require a strong and effective intersectoral organisational effort.<br><br>AIM: &#xa0;Exploratory interview outcomes are used to advance practice and policy recommendations, as well as for broad input in the development of a draft national framework for a health risk and vulnerability assessment (RVA) for national departments.<br><br>SETTING: &#xa0;Nationally in South Africa.<br><br>METHOD: &#xa0;Twenty key expert interviews were conducted with South African experts in the field of climate change and health. Interview data was analysed by means of thematic content analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: &#xa0;Findings suggest that previously poor communities are most at risk to the impacts of climate change on health, as well as those with underlying medical conditions. Climate change may also serve as a catalyst for improving the healthcare system overall and should serve as the conduit to do so. A draft climate change and health RVA should take into account existing frameworks and should be implemented by local government. It is also critical that the health and health system impacts from climate change are well understood, especially in light of the plans to implement the (South African) National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme.<br><br>CONCLUSION: &#xa0;Practice and policy initiatives should be holistic in nature. Consideration should be given to forming a South African National Department of Climate Change, or a similar coordinating body between the various national departments in South Africa, as health intercepts with all other domains within the climate change field.}, }
@article {pmid35384533, year = {2022}, author = {Islam, MM and Chowdhury, MAM and Begum, RA and Amir, AA}, title = {A bibliometric analysis on the research trends of climate change effects on economic vulnerability.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {39}, pages = {59300-59315}, pmid = {35384533}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Bibliometrics ; *Climate Change ; Floods ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The climate change effect has received a crucial concern from global policymakers as well as academic researchers. The climate change effect is a real-world issue threatening the existence of species and human beings, thus causing the economic vulnerability. Apart from policymakers, academic researchers are showing their concern on the effect of climate change on economic and socioeconomic vulnerability through publishing research articles in the recent decade. In light of the revolution of research articles, this study applied a bibliometric analysis on the academic research articles to explore the publication trends, themes, impacts, and potential scopes for further studies. Both the Scopus and the Web of Science online databases were used to search for journal articles linked to climate change effects and economic vulnerability. The final data of 229 journal articles were analyzed using bibliometric and visualization tools "Biblioshiny" and "VOSViewer." The findings unveiled an uprising trend in publications and posited several themes, mainly exposure, sensitivity, drought, and flood by means of climate change effects that affect economic vulnerability. Based on the findings and review of literature, several research gaps were identified and offered opportunities for further studies. The policymakers can attribute attention to encouraging more research in several areas in addition to agriculture and coastal regions.}, }
@article {pmid35383264, year = {2022}, author = {Pomoim, N and Hughes, AC and Trisurat, Y and Corlett, RT}, title = {Vulnerability to climate change of species in protected areas in Thailand.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {5705}, pmid = {35383264}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Amphibians/physiology ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Mammals ; Thailand ; }, abstract = {Although 23% of Thailand's land is in protected areas, these are vulnerable to climate change. We used spatial distribution modelling for 866 vertebrate and 591 plant species to understand potential climate change impacts on species in protected areas. Most mammals, birds, and plants were projected to decline by 2070, but most amphibians and reptiles were projected to increase. By 2070 under RCP8.5, 54% of modeled species will be threatened and 11 nationally extinct. However, SDMs are sensitive to truncation of the climate space currently occupied by habitat loss and hunting, and apparent truncation by data limitations. In Thailand, lowland forest clearance has biased records for forest-dependent species to cooler uplands (> 250 m a.s.l.) and hunting has confined larger vertebrates to well-protected areas. In contrast, available data is biased towards lowland non-forest taxa for amphibians and reptiles. Niche truncation may therefore have resulted in overestimation of vulnerability for some mammal and plant species, while data limitations have likely led to underestimation of the threat to forest-dependent amphibians and reptiles. In view of the certainty of climate change but the many uncertainties regarding biological responses, we recommend regular, long-term monitoring of species and communities to detect early signals of climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid35383210, year = {2022}, author = {Galani, YJH and Hansen, EM&#xd8; and Droutsas, I and Holmes, M and Challinor, AJ and Mikkelsen, TN and Orfila, C}, title = {Effects of combined abiotic stresses on nutrient content of European wheat and implications for nutritional security under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {5700}, pmid = {35383210}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {BB/P027784/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Nutrients ; Stress, Physiological ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Climate change is causing problems for agriculture, but the effect of combined abiotic stresses on crop nutritional quality is not clear. Here we studied the effect of 10 combinations of climatic conditions (temperature, CO2, O3 and drought) under controlled growth chamber conditions on the grain yield, protein, and mineral content of 3 wheat varieties. Results show that wheat plants under O3 exposure alone concentrated + 15 to + 31% more grain N, Fe, Mg, Mn P and Zn, reduced K by - 5%, and C did not change. Ozone in the presence of elevated CO2 and higher temperature enhanced the content of Fe, Mn, P and Zn by 2-18%. Water-limited chronic O3 exposure resulted in + 9 to + 46% higher concentrations of all the minerals, except K. The effect of climate abiotic factors could increase the ability of wheat to meet adult daily dietary requirements by + 6% to + 12% for protein, Zn and Fe, but decrease those of Mg, Mn and P by - 3% to - 6%, and K by - 62%. The role of wheat in future nutrition security is discussed.}, }
@article {pmid35382594, year = {2022}, author = {Grimalda, G and Belianin, A and Hennig-Schmidt, H and Requate, T and Ryzhkova, MV}, title = {Sanctions and international interaction improve cooperation to avert climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {289}, number = {1972}, pages = {20212174}, pmid = {35382594}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; Ethnicity ; Game Theory ; Humans ; *Punishment ; Reward ; }, abstract = {Imposing sanctions on non-compliant parties to international agreements is advocated as a remedy for international cooperation failure. Nevertheless, sanctions are costly, and rational choice theory predicts their ineffectiveness in improving cooperation. We test sanctions effectiveness experimentally in international collective-risk social dilemmas simulating efforts to avoid catastrophic climate change. We involve individuals from countries where sanctions were shown to be effective (Germany) or ineffective (Russia) in increasing cooperation. Here, we show that, while this result still holds nationally, international interaction backed by sanctions is beneficial. Cooperation by low cooperator groups increases relative to national cooperation and converges to the levels of high cooperators. This result holds regardless of revealing other group members' nationality, suggesting that participants' specific attitudes or stereotypes over the other country were irrelevant. Groups interacting under sanctions contribute more to catastrophe prevention than what would maximize expected group payoffs. This behaviour signals a strong propensity for protection against collective risks.}, }
@article {pmid35381997, year = {2022}, author = {Twyman-Ghoshal, A and Patten, E and Ciaramella, E}, title = {Exploring Media Representations of the Nexus Between Climate Change and Crime in the United States.}, journal = {Critical criminology}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {799-820}, pmid = {35381997}, issn = {1572-9877}, abstract = {Information on the criminal causes and effects of the climate crisis has the potential to shape public understanding of the problem, influence behavior(s), and prompt policy decisions. This article examines the mediated representation of climate change and crime in the United States to understand whether and how these issues are being portrayed. Using a content analysis of top online media stories in 2018, we found that there is a paucity of coverage on the nexus of climate change and crime. The few stories that did discuss the subject were often oversimplified and showed a lack of critical and informative coverage of the subject. Media coverage of climate change and crime needs more attention. This means that social scientists should dedicate more time to this research and to creating awareness around the climate change-social harm nexus. It also requires that social scientists are actively included in the discussions of the social effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35381526, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, J and Ding, Y and Wang, S and Watson, AE and He, H and Ye, H and Ouyang, X and Li, Y}, title = {Pixel-scale historical-baseline-based ecological quality: Measuring impacts from climate change and human activities from 2000 to 2018 in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {313}, number = {}, pages = {114944}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114944}, pmid = {35381526}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Widespread concern about ecological degradation has prompted development of concepts and exploration of methods to quantify ecological quality with the aim of measuring ecosystem changes to contribute to future policy-making. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for ecological quality measurement based on current ecosystem functions and biodiverse habitat, compared with pixel-scale historical baselines. The framework was applied to evaluate the changes and driving factors of ecological quality for Chinese terrestrial ecosystems through remote sensing-based and ecosystem process modeled data at 1 km spatial resolution from 2000 to 2018. The results demonstrated the ecological quality index (EQI) had a very different spatial pattern based upon vegetation distribution. An upward trend in EQI was found over most areas, and variability of 46.95% in EQI can be explained well by change in climate, with an additional 10.64% explained by changing human activities, quantified by population density. This study demonstrated a practical and objective approach for quantifying and assessing ecological quality, which has application potential in ecosystem assessments on scales from local to region and nation, yet would provide a new scientific concept and paradigm for macro ecosystems management and decision-making by governments.}, }
@article {pmid35381262, year = {2022}, author = {Chi, G and Su, X and Lyu, H and Li, H and Xu, G and Zhang, Y}, title = {Prediction and evaluation of groundwater level changes in an over-exploited area of the Baiyangdian Lake Basin, China under the combined influence of climate change and ecological water recharge.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {212}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {113104}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.113104}, pmid = {35381262}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Groundwater ; Lakes ; Soil ; Water ; }, abstract = {Groundwater (GW) and surface water (SW) are important components of water resources and play key roles in social and economic development and regional ecological security. There are currently several stresses placing immense pressure on the GW resources of the Baiyangdian Lake Basin (BLB) in China, including climate change. A series of ecological and environmental challenges have manifested in the plain area of the BLB due to long-term over-exploitation of GW, including regional declines in GW level, aquifer drainage, land subsidence, and soil secondary salinization. Climate change may aggravate environmental challenges by altering GW recharge rates and availability of GW. This study applied the fully processed and physically-based numerical models, MODFLOW and the Soil &amp; Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in a semi-coupled modeling framework. The aim of the study was to quantitatively analyze changes to shallow GW levels and reserves in the plain area of BLB over the next 15 years (2021-2035) under climate change and different artificial recharge schemes. The results indicated that GW storage and levels are rising under the different GW recharge schemes. The maximum variation in the GW level was 20-30 m under a rainfall assurance rate of 50% and water level in the depression cone increased 14.20-14.98 m. This study can act as a theoretical basis for the development of a more sustainable GW management scheme in the plain area of the BLB and for the management and protection of aquifers in other areas with serious GW overdraft.}, }
@article {pmid35381021, year = {2022}, author = {González, JB and Sánchez, A}, title = {Multilevel predictors of climate change beliefs in Africa.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {e0266387}, pmid = {35381021}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Africa ; *Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Although Africa is the most vulnerable region to climate change, little research has focused on how climate change is perceived by Africans. Using random forest methodology, we analyze survey and climate data from second-order political boundaries to explore what predicts climate change beliefs in Africa. We include five different dimensions of climate change beliefs: climate change awareness, belief in anthropogenic climate change, risk perception, the need to stop climate change, and self-efficacy. Based on these criteria we identify five key results: (1) climate change in Africa is largely perceived through its negative impacts on agriculture; (2) actual changes in local climate conditions are related to climate change beliefs; (3) authoritarian and intolerant ideologies are associated to less climate change awareness, and a diminished risk perception and belief that it must be stopped; (4) women are less likely to be aware of climate change, and (5) not speaking French, English or Portuguese is linked to a hindered understanding of climate beliefs. Our combined results can help policy makers better understand the need to jointly consider the multilevel complexities of individual beliefs and hydroclimatic data for the development of more accurate adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat the impacts of climate change in Africa.}, }
@article {pmid35379587, year = {2022}, author = {Black, L and Li, K and Shendell, DG}, title = {Expanding awareness of climate change, sustainability, and environmental health through an introductory short online course for high school students.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {381-383}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2022.03.006}, pmid = {35379587}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health/education ; Humans ; Students ; }, }
@article {pmid35379378, year = {2022}, author = {Del Castillo, FA}, title = {Ecological Citizenship and Climate Change: Role of Education in Public Health.}, journal = {Disaster medicine and public health preparedness}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1017/dmp.2022.68}, pmid = {35379378}, issn = {1938-744X}, }
@article {pmid35378646, year = {2022}, author = {Abbass, K and Qasim, MZ and Song, H and Murshed, M and Mahmood, H and Younis, I}, title = {A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {28}, pages = {42539-42559}, pmid = {35378646}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agriculture ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a long-lasting change in the weather arrays across tropics to polls. It is a global threat that has embarked on to put stress on various sectors. This study is aimed to conceptually engineer how climate variability is deteriorating the sustainability of diverse sectors worldwide. Specifically, the agricultural sector's vulnerability is a globally concerning scenario, as sufficient production and food supplies are threatened due to irreversible weather fluctuations. In turn, it is challenging the global feeding patterns, particularly in countries with agriculture as an integral part of their economy and total productivity. Climate change has also put the integrity and survival of many species at stake due to shifts in optimum temperature ranges, thereby accelerating biodiversity loss by progressively changing the ecosystem structures. Climate variations increase the likelihood of particular food and waterborne and vector-borne diseases, and a recent example is a coronavirus pandemic. Climate change also accelerates the enigma of antimicrobial resistance, another threat to human health due to the increasing incidence of resistant pathogenic infections. Besides, the global tourism industry is devastated as climate change impacts unfavorable tourism spots. The methodology investigates hypothetical scenarios of climate variability and attempts to describe the quality of evidence to facilitate readers' careful, critical engagement. Secondary data is used to identify sustainability issues such as environmental, social, and economic viability. To better understand the problem, gathered the information in this report from various media outlets, research agencies, policy papers, newspapers, and other sources. This review is a sectorial assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation approaches worldwide in the aforementioned sectors and the associated economic costs. According to the findings, government involvement is necessary for the country's long-term development through strict accountability of resources and regulations implemented in the past to generate cutting-edge climate policy. Therefore, mitigating the impacts of climate change must be of the utmost importance, and hence, this global threat requires global commitment to address its dreadful implications to ensure global sustenance.}, }
@article {pmid35378269, year = {2022}, author = {Yusuf, E and Luijendijk, A and Roo-Brand, G and Friedrich, AW}, title = {The unintended contribution of clinical microbiology laboratories to climate change and mitigation strategies: a combination of descriptive study, short survey, literature review and opinion.}, journal = {Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases}, volume = {28}, number = {9}, pages = {1245-1250}, doi = {10.1016/j.cmi.2022.03.034}, pmid = {35378269}, issn = {1469-0691}, mesh = {Agar ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Laboratories ; Transportation ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Climate change poses a significant threat to humanity and human activity is largely responsible for it. Clinical microbiology laboratories have their unintended shares in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The aim of this study is to estimate CO2 emission of a clinical microbiology laboratory and to propose initiatives to reduce the emissions.<br><br>METHODS: CO2 emission of instruments was estimated based on their electricity consumption. CO2 emitted in producing consumables was estimated by weighing the consumables needed to perform major tests in a large academic hospital. A systematic literature review was performed to identify studies on the impact of clinical microbiology laboratories on the environment. A short survey was sent to four major manufacturers of agar plates on initiatives to reduce the environmental impact of their products. Opinion was given on activities that can reduce CO2 emission in laboratories.<br><br>RESULTS: The study shows that the largest amount of CO2 emission in the microbiological laboratories comes from consumables and personnel commuting. For example, the production and transportation of agar plates needed to culture samples for a year in a hospital with 1320 beds result in 16&#xa0;590 kg CO2 is emitted. All survey participants mentioned that they were committed to reduce environmental impact of their products. The initiatives to reduce CO2 emission can be performed at the laboratory and at policy level, such as reducing the number of tests to only the necessary amount to reduce consumables.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The calculations contribute to map CO2-related emissions in clinical microbiology laboratory activities, and the proposed initiatives to reduce the CO2 may serve as starting point for further discussions.}, }
@article {pmid35377292, year = {2021}, author = {Nilsson, M and Sie, A and Muindi, K and Bunker, A and Ingole, V and Ebi, KL}, title = {Weather, climate, and climate change research to protect human health in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {14}, number = {sup1}, pages = {1984014}, pmid = {35377292}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Temperature ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Weather, climate, and climate change are affecting human health, with scientific evidence increasing substantially over the past two decades, but with very limited research from low- and middle-income countries. The health effects of climate change occur mainly because of the consequences of rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and an increase in extreme weather events. These exposures interact with demographic, socio-economic, and environmental factors, as well as access to and the quality of health care, to affect the magnitude and pattern of risks. Health risks are unevenly distributed around the world, and within countries and across population groups. Existing health challenges and inequalities are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. This narrative review provides an overview of the health impacts of weather, climate, and climate change, particularly on vulnerable regions and populations in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, and discusses the importance of protecting human health in a changing climate; such measures are critical to reducing poverty and inequality at all scales. Three case summaries from the INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems highlight examples of research that quantified associations between weather and health outcomes. These and comparable surveillance systems can provide critical knowledge to increase resilience and decrease inequalities in an increasingly warming world.}, }
@article {pmid35373178, year = {2022}, author = {Gray, K}, title = {Climate Change, Human Health, and Health Informatics: A New View of Connected and Sustainable Digital Health.}, journal = {Frontiers in digital health}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {869721}, pmid = {35373178}, issn = {2673-253X}, abstract = {The connection between human health and climate change has had a scientific basis for many decades. However, little attention has been directed to applying the science of health informatics to this aspect of health and healthcare until recently. This paper briefly reviews examples of recent international work on two fronts: to consider how health informatics can reduce the carbon footprint of healthcare, and to consider how it can integrate new kinds of data for insights into the human health impacts of climate change. Health informatics has two principles of fundamental relevance to this work - connectedness, in other words linking and integrating health data from multiple sources; and sustainability, in other words making healthcare overall more efficient and effective. Deepening its commitment to these principles will position health informatics as a discipline and a profession to support and guide technological advances that respond to the world's climate health challenges.}, }
@article {pmid35371912, year = {2022}, author = {Theron, E and Bills, CB and Calvello Hynes, EJ and Stassen, W and Rublee, C}, title = {Climate change and emergency care in Africa: A scoping review.}, journal = {African journal of emergency medicine : Revue africaine de la medecine d'urgence}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {121-128}, pmid = {35371912}, issn = {2211-4203}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is a global public health emergency with implications for access to care and emergency care service disruptions. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to climate-related extreme weather events due to an already overburdened health system, lack of early warning signs, poverty, inadequate infrastructure, and variable adaptive capacity. Emergency care services are not only utilized during these events but also threatened by these hazards. Considering that the effects of climate change are expected to increase in intensity and prevalence, it is increasingly important for emergency care to prepare to respond to the changes in presentation and demand. The aim of this study was to perform a scoping review of the available literature on the relationship between climate change and emergency care on the African continent.<br><br>METHODS: A scoping review was completed using five databases: Pubmed, Web of Science,&#xa0;GreenFILE, Africa Wide Information, and Google Scholar. A 'grey' literature search was done to identify key reports and references from included articles. Two independent reviewers screened articles and a third reviewer decided conflicts. A total of 1,382 individual articles were initially screened with 17 meeting full text review. A total of six articles were included in the final analysis. Data from four countries were represented including Uganda, Ghana, Tanzania, and Nigeria.<br><br>RESULTS: Analysis of the six articles yielded three key themes that were identified: climate-related health impacts that contribute to surges in demand and resource utilization, opportunities for health sector engagement, and solutions to improve emergency preparedness. Authors used the outcomes of the review to propose 10 recommendations for decision-makers and leaders.<br><br>DXDISCUSSION: Incorporating these key recommendations at the local and national level could help improve preparedness and adaptation measures in highly vulnerable, populated areas on the African continent.}, }
@article {pmid35371157, year = {2022}, author = {Charoensawan, V and Cortijo, S and Domijan, M and Negrão, S}, title = {Editorial: Multi-Disciplinary Approaches to Plant Responses to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {876432}, pmid = {35371157}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid35370514, year = {2022}, author = {Bernstein, A and Katz, DL}, title = {Lifestyle Medicine and Climate Change: The Role of Providers in Addressing a Public Health Challenge.}, journal = {American journal of lifestyle medicine}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {251-253}, pmid = {35370514}, issn = {1559-8284}, abstract = {Climate change threatens to undermine efforts to improve human health through lifestyle modification. Lifestyle medicine providers, however, may be well positioned to help patients create new healthful and climate-friendly habits, such as adopting a plant-based diet and limiting or eliminating car travel. Through each provider's own example and patient engagement efforts, as well as though new technology and the collective action of the American College of Lifestyle Medicine, the broader lifestyle medicine community can play an outsized role in addressing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35367905, year = {2022}, author = {Ma, T and Moore, J and Cleary, A}, title = {Climate change impacts on the mental health and wellbeing of young people: A scoping review of risk and protective factors.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {301}, number = {}, pages = {114888}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.114888}, pmid = {35367905}, issn = {1873-5347}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Mental Health ; *Natural Disasters ; Protective Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND/RATIONALE: The impact of climate change on the mental health of young people is poorly understood. Emerging evidence suggests that exposure to climate change exerts a disproportionate mental health burden on young people. An understanding of the risk factors (RFs) and protective factors (PFs) that affect the likelihood of mental health impacts arising from exposure to climate change is required to support youth wellbeing.<br><br>AIMS/OBJECTIVES: This review scopes the current research on what and how RFs and PFs are related to the mental health impacts of both direct and indirect exposure to climate change for young people. RFs and PFs were reviewed through the lens of ecological system theory.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted systematic searches in four databases: PubMed, PsycInfo, Web of Science, and Scopus. Grey literature searches were conducted in ProQuest Dissertations, GreyLit.org, OpenGrey, and relevant organisations' websites. We included 92 empirical studies focused on the RFs and PFs of the mental wellbeing under the impact of climate change of young people (0-24). We extracted data on study characteristics, type of climate change event, mental health outcomes, RFs and PFs, and associated ecological system level.<br><br>RESULTS: The current evidence base focuses predominantly on young people's experience of PTSD (k&#xa0;=&#xa0;59), depression (k&#xa0;=&#xa0;26), or anxiety (k&#xa0;=&#xa0;17) mainly following exposure to singular climate change-related natural disaster events. Only four studies explored the impacts of climate change in general. Majority of the studies investigated RFs and PFs at the individual level and at the micro-system level.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Several RFs and PFs were identified, such as coping strategies, family factors (e.g. parenting style), social support, community connection, and cultural identity. Positioning the mental health impacts of singular events within the broader context of ongoing and escalating climate change impacts will better inform the development of interventions that seek to build resilience among young people.}, }
@article {pmid35366358, year = {2022}, author = {Carbeck, K and Wang, T and Reid, JM and Arcese, P}, title = {Adaptation to climate change through seasonal migration revealed by climatic versus demographic niche models.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {14}, pages = {4260-4275}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16185}, pmid = {35366358}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Population Growth ; Reproducibility of Results ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Predicting the geographic range of species and their response to climatic variation and change are entwined goals in conservation and evolutionary ecology. Species distribution models (SDMs) are foundational in this effort and used to visualize the geographic range of species as the spatial representation of its realized niche. SDMs are also used to forecast range shifts under climate change, but often in the absence of empirical evidence that climate limits population growth. We explored the influence of climate on demography, seasonal migration, and the extent of the geographic range in song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), a species thought to display marked local adaptation to regional climate. To do so, we developed SDMs to predict the demographic and climate niches of migratory and resident song sparrows across our study area in western North America from California to Alaska, using 48 years of demographic data from a focal population in British Columbia and 1.2 million continental-scale citizen science observations. Spatial agreement of our demographic and climate niche models in the region of our focal population was strong (76%), supporting the hypothesis that demographic performance and the occurrence of seasonal migration varied predictably with climatic conditions. In contrast, agreement at the northern (58%) and southern (40%) extents of our study area was lower, as expected if the factors limiting population growth vary regionally. Our results support the hypothesis that local climate drives spatial variation in the occurrence of seasonal migration in song sparrows by limiting the fitness of year-round residents, and suggest that climate warming has favored range expansions and facilitated an upward shift in elevational range song sparrows that forgo seasonal migration. Our work highlights the potential role of seasonal migration in climate adaptation and limits on the reliability of climate niche models not validated with demographic data.}, }
@article {pmid35366068, year = {2022}, author = {Kauffman, JB and Beschta, RL and Lacy, PM and Liverman, M}, title = {Livestock Use on Public Lands in the Western USA Exacerbates Climate Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {69}, number = {6}, pages = {1137-1152}, pmid = {35366068}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Female ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Livestock ; Manure ; }, abstract = {Public lands of the USA can play an important role in addressing the climate crisis. About 85% of public lands in the western USA are grazed by domestic livestock, and they influence climate change in three profound ways: (1) they are significant sources of greenhouse gases through enteric fermentation and manure deposition; (2) they defoliate native plants, trample vegetation and soils, and accelerate the spread of exotic species resulting in a shift in landscape function from carbon sinks to sources of greenhouse gases; and (3) they exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystems by creating warmer and drier conditions. On public lands one cow-calf pair grazing for one month (an "animal unit month" or "AUM") produces 875 kg CO2e through enteric fermentation and manure deposition with a social carbon cost of nearly $36 per AUM. Over 14 million AUMs of cattle graze public lands of the western USA each year resulting in greenhouse gas emissions of 12.4 Tg CO2e year[-1]. The social costs of carbon are > $500 million year[-1] or approximately 26 times greater than annual grazing fees collected by managing federal agencies. These emissions and social costs do not include the likely greater ecosystems costs from grazing impacts and associated livestock management activities that reduce biodiversity, carbon stocks and rates of carbon sequestration. Cessation of grazing would decrease greenhouse gas emissions, improve soil and water resources, and would enhance/sustain native species biodiversity thus representing an important and cost-effective adaptive approach to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35364516, year = {2022}, author = {Khan, MA and Riaz, S and Jiang, H and Qamar, S and Ali, Z and Islamil, M and Nazeer, A and Faisal, M and Satti, S and Zhang, X}, title = {Development of an assessment framework for the proposed Multi-Scalar Seasonally Amalgamated Regional Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (MSARSPEI) for regional drought classifications in global warming context.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {312}, number = {}, pages = {114951}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114951}, pmid = {35364516}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Global Warming ; Meteorology ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {Drought hazard is one of the main consequences of global warming and climate change. Unlike other natural disasters, drought has complex climatic features. Therefore, accurate drought monitoring is a challenging task. This paper proposes a framework for assessing drought classifications at the regional level. The proposed framework provides a new drought monitoring indicator called Multi-Scalar Seasonally Amalgamated Regional Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (MSARSPEI). MSARSPEI is an amalgam of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010) and Regionally Improved Weighted Standardized Drought Index (RIWSDI) (Jiang et al., 2020). In the proposed framework, the Boruta algorithm of feature selection is configured to ensemble monthly time series data of evaporation in various meteorological stations located in specific regions. Further, the framework suggests the standardization of the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of K-Component Gaussian (K-CG) mixture distribution function for obtaining MSARSPEI data. The application of the proposed framework is based on seven different regions of Pakistan. For comparative analysis, this paper compared the performance of MSARSPE with SPEI using Pearson correlation. Outcomes associated with this research show that the proposed regional drought index has a strong correlation with the competing indicator in various time scales. In addition, the study assessed the spatial extent of various drought classifications under MSARSPEI. In summation, this research concludes that the choice of the MSARSPEI is rationally valid and more appropriate for the regional assessment of drought under the global warming scenario.}, }
@article {pmid35364353, year = {2022}, author = {Qiu, G and Law, Y and Zuniga-Montanez, R and Deng, X and Lu, Y and Roy, S and Thi, SS and Hoon, HY and Nguyen, TQN and Eganathan, K and Liu, X and Nielsen, PH and Williams, RBH and Wuertz, S}, title = {Global warming readiness: Feasibility of enhanced biological phosphorus removal at 35 °C.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {216}, number = {}, pages = {118301}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2022.118301}, pmid = {35364353}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {*Betaproteobacteria/metabolism ; Bioreactors ; Carbon ; Feasibility Studies ; Global Warming ; Glycogen/metabolism ; In Situ Hybridization, Fluorescence ; *Phosphorus/metabolism ; Polyphosphates/metabolism ; RNA, Ribosomal, 16S/genetics/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Recent research has shown enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) from municipal wastewater at warmer temperatures around 30 °C to be achievable in both laboratory-scale reactors and full-scale treatment plants. In the context of a changing climate, the feasibility of EBPR at even higher temperatures is of interest. We operated two lab-scale EBPR sequencing batch reactors for > 300 days at 30 °C and 35 °C, respectively, and followed the dynamics of the communities of polyphosphate accumulating organisms (PAOs) and competing glycogen accumulating organisms (GAOs) using a combination of 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding, quantitative PCR and fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses. Stable and nearly complete phosphorus (P) removal was achieved at 30 °C; similarly, long term P removal was stable at 35 °C with effluent PO4[3-_]P concentrations < 0.5 mg/L on half of all monitored days. Diverse and abundant Candidatus Accumulibacter amplicon sequence variants were closely related to those found in temperate environments, suggesting that EBPR at this temperature does not require a highly specialized PAO community. A slow-feeding strategy effectively limited the carbon uptake rates of GAOs, allowing PAOs to outcompete GAOs at both temperatures. Candidatus Competibacter was the main GAO, along with cluster III Defluviicoccus members. These organisms withstood the slow-feeding regime, suggesting that their bioenergetic characteristics of carbon uptake differ from those of their tetrad-forming relatives. Comparative cycle studies revealed higher carbon and P cycling activity of Ca. Accumulibacter when the temperature was increased from 30 °C to 35 °C, implying that the lowered P removal performance at 35 °C was not a direct effect of temperature, but a result of higher metabolic rates of carbon (and/or P) utilization of PAOs and GAOs, the resultant carbon deficiency, and escalated community competition. An increase in the TOC-to-PO4[3-]-P ratio (from 25:1 to 40:1) effectively eased the carbon deficiency and benefited PAOs. In general, a slow-feeding strategy and sufficiently high carbon input benefited a high and stable EBPR at 35 °C, representing basic conditions suitable for full-scale treatment plants experiencing higher water temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid35364159, year = {2022}, author = {Adams-Groom, B and Selby, K and Derrett, S and Frisk, CA and Pashley, CH and Satchwell, J and King, D and McKenzie, G and Neilson, R}, title = {Pollen season trends as markers of climate change impact: Betula, Quercus and Poaceae.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {831}, number = {}, pages = {154882}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154882}, pmid = {35364159}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Allergens ; *Betula ; Climate Change ; Poaceae ; Pollen ; *Quercus ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The incidences of respiratory allergies are at an all-time high. Pollen aeroallergens can reflect changing climate, with recent studies in Europe showing some, but not all, pollen types are increasing in severity, season duration and experiencing an earlier onset. This study aimed to identify pollen trends in the UK over the last twenty-six years for a range of pollen sites, with a focus on the key pollen types of Poaceae (grass), Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) and to examine the relationship of these trends with meteorological factors. Betula pollen seasons show no significant trends for onset, first high day or duration but increasing pollen production in the Midlands region of the UK is being driven by warmer temperatures in the previous June and July. Quercus pollen seasons are starting earlier, due to increasing temperature and sunshine totals in April, but are not becoming more severe. The seasons are lasting longer, although no significant climate drivers for this were identified. The first high day of the Poaceae pollen season is occurring earlier in central UK regions due to an increasing trend for all temperature variables in the previous December, January, April, May and June. Severity and duration of the season show no significant trends and are spatially and temporally variable. Important changes are occurring in the UK pollen seasons that will impact on the health of respiratory allergy sufferers, with more severe Betula pollen seasons and longer Quercus pollen seasons. Most of the changes identified were caused by climate drivers of increasing temperature and sunshine total. However, Poaceae pollen seasons are neither becoming more severe nor longer. The reasons for this included a lack of change in some monthly meteorological variables, or land-use change, such as grassland being replaced by urban areas or woodland.}, }
@article {pmid35363810, year = {2022}, author = {Wu, S and He, Y and Wei, Y and Fan, P and Ni, W and Zhong, D and Zhou, G and Zheng, X}, title = {Effects of Guangzhou seasonal climate change on the development of Aedes albopictus and its susceptibility to DENV-2.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {e0266128}, pmid = {35363810}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Aedes ; Animals ; Climate Change ; *Dengue ; *Dengue Virus ; Female ; Mosquito Vectors ; RNA, Viral ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The susceptibility of Asian tiger mosquitoes to DENV-2 in different seasons was observed in simulated field environments as a reference to design dengue fever control strategies in Guangzhou. The life table experiments of mosquitoes in four seasons were carried out in the field. The susceptibility of Ae. albopictus to dengue virus was observed in both environments in Guangzhou in summer and winter. Ae. albopictus was infected with dengue virus by oral feeding. On day 7 and 14 after infection, the viral load in the head, ovary, and midgut of the mosquito was detected using real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR. Immune-associated gene expression in infected mosquitoes was performed using quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase PCR. The hatching rate and pupation rate of Ae. albopictus larvae in different seasons differed significantly. The winter hatching rate of larvae was lower than that in summer, and the incubation time was longer than in summer. In the winter field environment, Ae. albopictus still underwent basic growth and development processes. Mosquitoes in the simulated field environment were more susceptible to DENV-2 than those in the simulated laboratory environment. In the midgut, viral RNA levels on day 7 in summer were higher than those on day 7 in winter (F = 14.459, P = 0.01); ovarian viral RNA levels on day 7 in summer were higher than those on day 7 in winter (F = 8.656, P < 0.001), but there was no significant difference in the viral load at other time points (P > 0.05). Dicer-2 mRNA expression on day 7 in winter was 4.071 times than that on day 7 in summer: the viral load and Dicer-2 expression correlated moderately. Ae. albopictus could still develop and transmit dengue virus in winter in Guangzhou. Mosquitoes under simulated field conditions were more susceptible to DENV-2 than those under simulated laboratory conditions.}, }
@article {pmid35363629, year = {2022}, author = {Taylor, AL and Perret, D and Morice, K and Zafonte, R and Skelton, F and Rivers, E and Alexander, M}, title = {Climate Change and Physiatry: A Call to Proportional and Prospective Action.}, journal = {American journal of physical medicine &amp; rehabilitation}, volume = {101}, number = {10}, pages = {988-993}, pmid = {35363629}, issn = {1537-7385}, support = {IK2 HX002484/HX/HSRD VA/United States ; R03 HD107667/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine ; Prospective Studies ; Smoke ; }, abstract = {Through increased temperature-related illness, exposure to wildfire smoke and air pollutants, and more frequent and intense natural disasters, climate change is disproportionately affecting the health of people with disabilities. Although the evidence behind the health effects of climate change is growing, there remain critical research gaps in the physiatric literature that must be addressed. Increased education throughout the medical-education continuum is also needed to prepare physiatrists to address the climate-related health effects impacting their patient populations. Physiatrists and their member organizations should advocate for policies that address climate change with a focus on the unique needs of their patient population and the inclusion of people with disabilities in the policy making process.}, }
@article {pmid35363525, year = {2022}, author = {Touma, D and Stevenson, S and Swain, DL and Singh, D and Kalashnikov, DA and Huang, X}, title = {Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {8}, number = {13}, pages = {eabm0320}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.abm0320}, pmid = {35363525}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Post-wildfire extreme rainfall events can have destructive impacts in the western United States. Using two climate model large ensembles, we assess the future risk of extreme fire weather events being followed by extreme rainfall in this region. By mid-21st century, in a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), we report large increases in the number of extreme fire weather events followed within 1 year by at least one extreme rainfall event. By 2100, the frequency of these compound events increases by 100% in California and 700% in the Pacific Northwest in the Community Earth System Model v1 Large Ensemble. We further project that more than 90% of extreme fire weather events in California, Colorado, and the Pacific Northwest will be followed by at least three spatially colocated extreme rainfall events within five years. Our results point to a future with substantially increased post-fire hydrologic risks across much of the western United States.}, }
@article {pmid35362746, year = {2022}, author = {Lee, MC and Libatique, MJH and Yeh, HY and Chloe Lung, WQ}, title = {Increasing arsenic accumulation as an implication of climate change: a case study using red algae.}, journal = {Bulletin of environmental contamination and toxicology}, volume = {108}, number = {5}, pages = {839-847}, pmid = {35362746}, issn = {1432-0800}, mesh = {*Arsenic/toxicity ; Atmosphere ; Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution ; *Rhodophyta ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change due to an increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a global issue. It can impact aquatic environments by affecting water flow, pollutant transformation and migration, and other toxicant-related effects. We assessed the interactive effects of temperature warming and pH changes on variations in accumulation of total arsenic (AsT) in the red alga Sarcodia suae at different levels of arsenite (AsIII). Result showed that AsT variations in the alga were moderated by significant joint effects of warming temperature and/or increasing pH levels and their interactions with increasing AsIII concentrations. Our study suggests possible deleterious impacts on macroalgal populations due to toxicological effects associated with prevailing environmental conditions. Therefore, improved pollution management, climate change adaptation, and mitigation strategies are needed to deal with current environmental issues and As aggravation.}, }
@article {pmid35361642, year = {2022}, author = {Kamana, E and Zhao, J and Bai, D}, title = {Predicting the impact of climate change on the re-emergence of malaria cases in China using LSTMSeq2Seq deep learning model: a modelling and prediction analysis study.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {e053922}, pmid = {35361642}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {China/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Deep Learning ; Humans ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; *Malaria, Falciparum ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Malaria is a vector-borne disease that remains a serious public health problem due to its climatic sensitivity. Accurate prediction of malaria re-emergence is very important in taking corresponding effective measures. This study aims to investigate the impact of climatic factors on the re-emergence of malaria in mainland China.<br><br>DESIGN: A modelling study.<br><br>SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Monthly malaria cases for four Plasmodium species (P. falciparum, P. malariae, P. vivax and other Plasmodium) and monthly climate data were collected for 31 provinces; malaria cases from 2004 to 2016 were obtained from the Chinese centre for disease control and prevention and climate parameters from China meteorological data service centre. We conducted analyses at the aggregate level, and there was no involvement of confidential information.<br><br>The long short-term memory sequence-to-sequence (LSTMSeq2Seq) deep neural network model was used to predict the re-emergence of malaria cases from 2004 to 2016, based on the influence of climatic factors. We trained and tested the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), gated recurrent unit, LSTM, LSTMSeq2Seq models using monthly malaria cases and corresponding meteorological data in 31 provinces of China. Then we compared the predictive performance of models using root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error evaluation measures.<br><br>RESULTS: The proposed LSTMSeq2Seq model reduced the mean RMSE of the predictions by 19.05% to 33.93%, 18.4% to 33.59%, 17.6% to 26.67% and 13.28% to 21.34%, for P. falciparum, P. vivax, P. malariae, and other plasmodia, respectively, as compared with other candidate models. The LSTMSeq2Seq model achieved an average prediction accuracy of 87.3%.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The LSTMSeq2Seq model significantly improved the prediction of malaria re-emergence based on the influence of climatic factors. Therefore, the LSTMSeq2Seq model can be effectively applied in the malaria re-emergence prediction.}, }
@article {pmid35358519, year = {2022}, author = {Burrell, AL and Sun, Q and Baxter, R and Kukavskaya, EA and Zhila, S and Shestakova, T and Rogers, BM and Kaduk, J and Barrett, K}, title = {Climate change, fire return intervals and the growing risk of permanent forest loss in boreal Eurasia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {831}, number = {}, pages = {154885}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154885}, pmid = {35358519}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Burns ; Climate Change ; *Fires ; Forests ; Humans ; Taiga ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change has driven an increase in the frequency and severity of fires in Eurasian boreal forests. A growing number of field studies have linked the change in fire regime to post-fire recruitment failure and permanent forest loss. In this study we used four burned area and two forest loss datasets to calculate the landscape-scale fire return interval (FRI) and associated risk of permanent forest loss. We then used machine learning to predict how the FRI will change under a high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0) by the end of the century. We found that there are currently 133,000 km[2] forest at high, or extreme, risk of fire-induced forest loss, with a further 3 M km[2] at risk by the end of the century. This has the potential to degrade or destroy some of the largest remaining intact forests in the world, negatively impact the health and economic wellbeing of people living in the region, as well as accelerate global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35358265, year = {2022}, author = {Donoso, DA and Basset, Y and Shik, JZ and Forrister, DL and Uquillas, A and Salazar-Méndez, Y and Arizala, S and Polanco, P and Beckett, S and Dominguez G, D and Barrios, H}, title = {Male ant reproductive investment in a seasonal wet tropical forest: Consequences of future climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {e0266222}, pmid = {35358265}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ants ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Male ; Rain ; Seasons ; Trees ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Tropical forests sustain many ant species whose mating events often involve conspicuous flying swarms of winged gynes and males. The success of these reproductive flights depends on environmental variables and determines the maintenance of local ant diversity. However, we lack a strong understanding of the role of environmental variables in shaping the phenology of these flights. Using a combination of community-level analyses and a time-series model on male abundance, we studied male ant phenology in a seasonally wet lowland rainforest in the Panama Canal. The male flights of 161 ant species, sampled with 10 Malaise traps during 58 consecutive weeks (from August 2014 to September 2015), varied widely in number (mean = 9.8 weeks, median = 4, range = 1 to 58). Those species abundant enough for analysis (n = 97) flew mainly towards the end of the dry season and at the start of the rainy season. While litterfall, rain, temperature, and air humidity explained community composition, the time-series model estimators elucidated more complex patterns of reproductive investment across the entire year. For example, male abundance increased in weeks when maximum daily temperature increased and in wet weeks during the dry season. On the contrary, male abundance decreased in periods when rain receded (e.g., at the start of the dry season), in periods when rain fell daily (e.g., right after the beginning of the wet season), or when there was an increase in the short-term rate of litterfall (e.g., at the end of the dry season). Together, these results suggest that the BCI ant community is adapted to the dry/wet transition as the best timing of reproductive investment. We hypothesize that current climate change scenarios for tropical regions with higher average temperature, but lower rainfall, may generate phenological mismatches between reproductive flights and the adequate conditions needed for a successful start of the colony.}, }
@article {pmid35358194, year = {2022}, author = {Geng, W and Li, Y and Sun, D and Li, B and Zhang, P and Chang, H and Rong, T and Liu, Y and Shao, J and Liu, Z and Zhu, H and Lou, Y and Wang, Q and Zhang, J}, title = {Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {e0262540}, pmid = {35358194}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Betula ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate is a dominant factor affecting the potential geographical distribution of species. Understanding the impact of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of species, which is of great significance to the exploitation, utilization, and protection of resources, as well as ecologically sustainable development. Betula platyphylla Suk. is one of the most widely distributed temperate deciduous tree species in East Asia and has important economic and ecological value. Based on 231 species distribution data points of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China and 37 bioclimatic, soil, and topography variables (with correlation coefficients < 0.75), the potential geographical distribution pattern of Betula platyphylla Suk. under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios at present and in the 2050s and 2070s was predicted using the MaxEnt model. We analyzed the main environmental variables affecting the distribution and change of suitable areas and compared the scope and change of suitable areas under different climate scenarios. This study found: (1) At present, the main suitable area for Betula platyphylla Suk. extends from northeastern to southwestern China, with the periphery area showing fragmented distribution. (2) Annual precipitation, precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the dominant environmental variables that affect the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. (3) The suitable area for Betula platyphylla Suk. is expected to expand under global warming scenarios. In recent years, due to the impact of diseases and insect infestation, and environmental damage, the natural Betula platyphylla Suk. forest in China has gradually narrowed. This study accurately predicted the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. under current and future climate change scenarios, which can provide the scientific basis for the cultivation, management, and sustainable utilization of Betula platyphylla Suk. resources.}, }
@article {pmid35357713, year = {2022}, author = {Rauschkolb, R and Li, Z and Godefroid, S and Dixon, L and Durka, W and Májeková, M and Bossdorf, O and Ensslin, A and Scheepens, JF}, title = {Evolution of plant drought strategies and herbivore tolerance after two decades of climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {235}, number = {2}, pages = {773-785}, doi = {10.1111/nph.18125}, pmid = {35357713}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Herbivory ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Ongoing global warming, coupled with increased drought frequencies, together with other biotic drivers may have resulted in complex evolutionary adaptation. The resurrection approach, comparing ancestors raised from stored seeds with their contemporary descendants under common conditions, is a powerful method to test for recent evolution in plant populations. We used 21-26-yr-old seeds of four European plant species - Matthiola tricuspidata, Plantago crassifolia, Clinopodium vulgare and Leontodon hispidus - stored in seed banks together with re-collected seeds from their wild populations. To test for evolutionary changes, we conducted a glasshouse experiment that quantified heritable changes in plant responses to drought and simulated insect herbivory. In three out of the four studied species, we found evidence that descendants had evolved shorter life cycles through faster growth and flowering. Shifts in the osmotic potential and leaf dry matter content indicated that descendants also evolved increased drought tolerance. A comparison of quantitative genetic differentiation (QST) vs neutral molecular differentiation (FST) values, using double digest restriction-site associated DNA (ddRAD) genotyping data, suggested that directional selection, and therefore adaptive evolution, was underlying some of the observed phenotypic changes. In summary, our study revealed evolutionary changes in plant populations over the last decades that are consistent with adaptation of drought escape and tolerance as well as herbivory avoidance.}, }
@article {pmid35356559, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, JM and Peng, XY and Song, ML and Li, ZJ and Xu, XQ and Wang, W}, title = {Effects of climate change on the distribution of wild Akebia trifoliata.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {e8714}, pmid = {35356559}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Understanding the impacts and constraints of climate change on the geographical distribution of wild Akebia trifoliata is crucial for its sustainable management and economic development as a medicinal material or fruit. In this study, according to the first-hand information obtained from field investigation, the distribution and response to climate change of A. trifoliata were studied by the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. The genetic diversity and population structure of 21 natural populations of A. trifoliata were studied by simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers. The results showed that the most important bioclimatic variable limiting the distribution of A. trifoliata was the Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter (bio11). Under the scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, the suitable area of A. trifoliata in the world will remain stable, and the suitable area will increase significantly under the scenarios of SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable growth regions of A. trifoliata in China were 79.9-122.7°E and 21.5-37.5°N. Under the four emission scenarios in the future, the geometric center of the suitable distribution regions of Akebia trifoliata in China will move to the north. The clustering results of 21 populations of A. trifoliata analyzed by SSR markers showed that they had a trend of evolution from south to north.}, }
@article {pmid35354591, year = {2022}, author = {Iacobucci, G}, title = {Medical schools should include climate change in their curriculum, says report.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {376}, number = {}, pages = {o845}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o845}, pmid = {35354591}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Humans ; *Schools, Medical ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid35353372, year = {2022}, author = {Thomson, D and Cumpston, M and Delgado-Figueroa, N and Ebi, KL and Haddaway, N and van der Heijden, M and Heyn, PC and Lokotola, CL and Meerpohl, JJ and Metzendorf, MI and Parker, ER and Phalkey, R and Tovey, D and von Elm, E and Webster, RJ and Wieland, SL and Young, T}, title = {Protecting human health in a time of climate change: how Cochrane should respond.}, journal = {The Cochrane database of systematic reviews}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {ED000156}, pmid = {35353372}, issn = {1469-493X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35352220, year = {2022}, author = {Baloch, ZA and Tan, Q and Fahad, S}, title = {Analyzing farm households' perception and choice of adaptation strategies towards climate change impacts: a case study of vulnerable households in an emerging Asian region.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {38}, pages = {57306-57316}, pmid = {35352220}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Farms ; Humans ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Poor agricultural communities are particularly more disruptive to changes in climate. In southeast Asian countries, Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to weather-related events including droughts and floods. This research study aims to determine the farmers' perception towards climatic risks, farmers' choice of adaptation strategies and factors influencing farmers' decision of adaptation measures. A face-to-face household survey was conducted to collect primary data of 378 farm households from three tehsils of district Charsadda-Khyber Pakhuntkhwa (KP) province of Pakistan. A structured questionnaire was utilized as an instrument to collect data from the targeted farmers in study areas (three tehsils of district Charsadda). A binary probit model approach was used to assess the major factors affecting farmers' decision towards adaptation measures. Results revealed that changing crop varieties, diversification of crops, changing crop calendar, and insurance of crops were the major adaptive measures exercised by farm households in their farms. Findings of the binary probit approach showed that age of the respondents, farm size, educational level, credit access, household size, extension services access and perception of increased floods, and reduction in precipitation had substantial effect on the farmers' adaptation strategies choice. Advanced agricultural practices in response to the climatic risks can thus have substantial effects and reduction in farmers' exposure to natural calamities. Study findings of our research can guide policy makers and concerned authorities and provide policy implications for future research studies.}, }
@article {pmid35350006, year = {2022}, author = {Skaland, RG and Herrador, BG and Hisdal, H and Hygen, HO and Hyllestad, S and Lund, V and White, R and Wong, WK and Nygård, K}, title = {Impacts of climate change on drinking water quality in Norway.}, journal = {Journal of water and health}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {539-550}, doi = {10.2166/wh.2022.264}, pmid = {35350006}, issn = {1477-8920}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Drinking Water ; Norway ; *Water Quality ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change will lead to higher temperatures, increased precipitation and runoff, as well as more intense and frequent extreme weather events in Norway. More extreme rainfall and increased runoff are historically associated with higher concentrations of indicator bacteria, colour and turbidity in raw water of Norwegian waterworks. Regional information about the risk for drinking water deterioration by the end of the century is essential for evaluating potential treatment capacity upgrades at the waterworks. We combined locally downscaled future climate scenarios with historical associations between weather/runoff and water quality from a wide spread of waterworks in Norway. With continued climate change, we estimate higher concentrations of water quality indicators of raw water by the end of the century. The water quality is estimated to deteriorate mainly due to the projected increase in rainfall, and mainly in the Western and Northern parts of Norway. While large waterworks seem to be able to adapt to future conditions, the degradation of raw water quality may cause future challenges for the treatment processes at smaller waterworks. Combining these results with further studies of treatment effects and microbial risk assessments is needed to ensure sufficient treatment capacities of the raw water in the future.}, }
@article {pmid35349810, year = {2022}, author = {Clark, R and Hobson, K}, title = {Climate change: Aerial insectivores struggle to keep pace with earlier pulses of nutritious aquatic foods.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {R267-R269}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2022.01.076}, pmid = {35349810}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Insecta ; Reproduction ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Not all insects are created equal and those emerging from wetlands are nutritionally superior to those from uplands. Insectivorous birds have timed reproduction to coincide with insect pulses, but new work shows how climate change has disconnected this synchrony, creating reductions in insect quality with profound implications for conservation.}, }
@article {pmid35349170, year = {2022}, author = {Bajpai, A and Mahawar, H and Dubey, G and Atoliya, N and Parmar, R and Devi, MH and Kollah, B and Mohanty, SR}, title = {Prospect of pink pigmented facultative methylotrophs in mitigating abiotic stress and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of basic microbiology}, volume = {62}, number = {8}, pages = {889-899}, doi = {10.1002/jobm.202200087}, pmid = {35349170}, issn = {1521-4028}, support = {EMR/2016/000511//DST SERB/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Plants ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Apparently, climate change is observed in form of increased greenhouse gases (CH4 , CO2 , N2 O, CFC), temperature (0.5-1°C), and UV radiations (UV B and UV C). It is affecting every aspect of ecosystem functioning; however, terrestrial crops are the most vulnerable group and crop productivity largely remains a challenge. Due to climate change, seed yield and nutrient depletion are inevitable in future scenarios. To overcome this problem microbial groups that exhibit plant growth promoting attributes and provide protection against environmental stress should be studied. One such group is the pink pigmented facultative methylotrophs (PPFMs) that can induce overall fitness to plants. PPFMs are involved in phosphorous mineralization, siderophore, ACC deaminase, phytohormone production, and assimilation of greenhouse gases. Additionally, these organisms can also resist harmful UV radiations effectively as they possess polyketide synthases that could serve as source of novel bioactives that can protect plant from abiotic stress. The review article comprehensively highlights the multifunctional traits of PPFMs and their role in mitigating climate change with an aim to use this important organism as microbial inoculants for sustainable agriculture under climate-changing scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid35348502, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {The Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {The American journal of nursing}, volume = {122}, number = {4}, pages = {14}, doi = {10.1097/01.NAJ.0000827272.52400.6e}, pmid = {35348502}, issn = {1538-7488}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Nurses are among those mobilizing to address the challenge.}, }
@article {pmid35347259, year = {2022}, author = {Sonne, J and Maruyama, PK and Martín González, AM and Rahbek, C and Bascompte, J and Dalsgaard, B}, title = {Extinction, coextinction and colonization dynamics in plant-hummingbird networks under climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {720-729}, pmid = {35347259}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; North America ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Climate-driven range shifts may cause local extinctions, while the accompanying loss of biotic interactions may trigger secondary coextinctions. At the same time, climate change may facilitate colonizations from regional source pools, balancing out local species loss. At present, how these extinction-coextinction-colonization dynamics affect biological communities under climate change is poorly understood. Using 84 communities of interacting plants and hummingbirds, we simulated patterns in climate-driven extinctions, coextinctions and colonizations under future climate change scenarios. Our simulations showed clear geographic discrepancies in the communities' vulnerability to climate change. Andean communities were the least affected by future climate change, as they experienced few climate-driven extinctions and coextinctions while having the highest colonization potential. In North America and lowland South America, communities had many climate-driven extinctions and few colonization events. Meanwhile, the pattern of coextinction was highly dependent on the configuration of networks formed by interacting hummingbirds and plants. Notably, North American communities experienced proportionally fewer coextinctions than other regions because climate-driven extinctions here primarily affected species with peripheral network roles. Moreover, coextinctions generally decreased in communities where species have few overlapping interactions, that is, communities with more complementary specialized and modular networks. Together, these results highlight that we should not expect colonizations to adequately balance out local extinctions in the most vulnerable ecoregions.}, }
@article {pmid35347049, year = {2022}, author = {Fidler, L and Green, S and Wintemute, K}, title = {Pressurized metered-dose inhalers and their impact on climate change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {194}, number = {12}, pages = {E460}, pmid = {35347049}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Metered Dose Inhalers ; Nebulizers and Vaporizers ; }, }
@article {pmid35345504, year = {2022}, author = {Cummins, DP and Stephenson, DB and Stott, PA}, title = {Could detection and attribution of climate change trends be spurious regression?.}, journal = {Climate dynamics}, volume = {59}, number = {9-10}, pages = {2785-2799}, pmid = {35345504}, issn = {0930-7575}, abstract = {Since the 1970s, scientists have developed statistical methods intended to formalize detection of changes in global climate and to attribute such changes to relevant causal factors, natural and anthropogenic. Detection and attribution (D&amp;A) of climate change trends is commonly performed using a variant of Hasselmann's "optimal fingerprinting" method, which involves a linear regression of historical climate observations on corresponding output from numerical climate models. However, it has long been known in the field of time series analysis that regressions of "non-stationary" or "trending" variables are, in general, statistically inconsistent and often spurious. When non-stationarity is caused by "integrated" processes, as is likely the case for climate variables, consistency of least-squares estimators depends on "cointegration" of regressors. This study has shown, using an idealized linear-response-model framework, that if standard assumptions hold then the optimal fingerprinting estimator is consistent, and hence robust against spurious regression. In the case of global mean surface temperature (GMST), parameterizing abstract linear response models in terms of energy balance provides this result with physical interpretability. Hypothesis tests conducted using observations of historical GMST and simulation output from 13 CMIP6 general circulation models produced no evidence that standard assumptions required for consistency were violated. It is therefore concluded that, at least in the case of GMST, detection and attribution of climate change trends is very likely not spurious regression. Furthermore, detection of significant cointegration between observations and model output indicates that the least-squares estimator is "superconsistent", with better convergence properties than might previously have been assumed. Finally, a new method has been developed for quantifying D&amp;A uncertainty, exploiting the notion of cointegration to eliminate the need for pre-industrial control simulations.}, }
@article {pmid35342194, year = {2022}, author = {Macêdo, RL and Sousa, FDR and Dumont, HJ and Rietzler, AC and Rocha, O and Elmoor-Loureiro, LMA}, title = {Climate change and niche unfilling tend to favor range expansion of Moina macrocopa Straus 1820, a potentially invasive cladoceran in temporary waters.}, journal = {Hydrobiologia}, volume = {849}, number = {17-18}, pages = {4015-4027}, pmid = {35342194}, issn = {0018-8158}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Non-native species' introductions have increased in the last decades primarily due to anthropogenic causes such as climate change and globalization of trade. Moina macrocopa, a stress-tolerant cladoceran widely used in bioassays and aquaculture, is spreading in temporary and semi-temporary natural ponds outside its natural range. Here, we characterize the variations in the climatic niche of M. macrocopa during its invasions outside the native Palearctic range following introduction into the American continent. Specifically, we examined to what extent the climatic responses of this species have diverged from those characteristics for its native range. We also made predictions for its potential distribution under current and future scenarios. We found that the environmental space occupied by this species in its native and introduced distribution areas shares more characteristics than randomly expected. However, the introduced niche has a high degree of unfilling when displacing its original space towards the extension to drier and hotter conditions. Accordingly, M. macrocopa can invade new areas where it has not yet been recorded in response to warming temperatures and decreasing winter precipitation. In particular, temporary ponds are more vulnerable environments where climatic and environmental stresses may also lower biotic resistance.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10750-022-04835-7.}, }
@article {pmid35341862, year = {2022}, author = {Yan, C and Liu, Z and Yuan, Z and Shi, X and Lock, TR and Kallenbach, RL}, title = {Aridity modifies the responses of plant stoichiometry to global warming and nitrogen deposition in semi-arid steppes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {831}, number = {}, pages = {154807}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154807}, pmid = {35341862}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Global Warming ; *Grassland ; *Nitrogen/analysis ; Plants ; Poaceae ; Soil ; Water ; }, abstract = {Global warming and nitrogen (N) deposition are known to unbalance the stoichiometry of carbon (C), N, and phosphorus (P) in terrestrial plants, but it is unclear how water availability regulates their effects along a natural aridity gradient. Here, we conducted manipulative experiments to determine the effects of experimental warming (WT) and N addition (NT) on plant stoichiometry in desert, typical, and meadow steppes with decreasing aridity. WT elevated air temperatures by 1.2-2.9 °C using open-top chambers. WT increased forb C:N ratio and thus its N use efficiency and competitiveness in desert steppes, whereas WT reduced forb C:N and C:P ratios in typical and meadow steppes. Plant N:P ratio, which reflects nutrient limitation, was reduced by WT in desert steppes but not for typical or meadow steppes. NT reduced plant C:N ratios and increased N:P ratios in all three steppes. NT reduced forb C:P ratios in desert and typical steppes, but it enhanced grass C:P ratio in meadow steppes, indicating an enhancement of P use efficiency and competitiveness of grasses in wet steppes. WT and NT had synergetic effects on grass C:N and C:P ratios in all three steppes, which helps to increase grasses' productivity. Under WT or NT, the changes in community C:N ratio were positively correlated with increasing aridity, indicating that aridity increases plants' N use efficiency. However, aridity negatively affected the changes in N:P ratios under NT but not WT, which suggests that aridity mitigates P limitation induced by N deposition. Our results imply that warming could shift the dominant functional group into forbs in dry steppes due to altered stoichiometry, whereas grasses become dominated plants in wet steppes under increasing N deposition. We suggest that global changes might break the stoichiometric balance of plants and water availability could strongly modify such processes in semi-arid steppes.}, }
@article {pmid35341035, year = {2022}, author = {Hiruta, Y and Ishizaki, NN and Ashina, S and Takahashi, K}, title = {Hourly future climate scenario datasets for impact assessment of climate change considering simultaneous interactions among multiple meteorological factors.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {108047}, pmid = {35341035}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Assessing the impacts of climate change in multiple fields, such as energy, land and water resources, and human health and welfare is important to find effective strategies to adapt to a changing climate and to reduce greenhouse gases. Many phenomena influenced by climate change have diurnal fluctuations and are affected by simultaneous interactions among multiple meteorological factors. However, climate scenarios with detailed (at least hourly) resolutions are usually not available. To assess the impact of climate change on such phenomena while considering simultaneous interactions (e.g., synergies), climate scenarios with hourly fluctuations are indispensable. However, because meteorological indicators are not independent, the value of one indicator varies as a function of other indicators. Therefore, it is almost impossible to determine the functions that show all relationships among meteorological elements considering the geographical and temporal (both seasonal and time of a day) characteristics. Therefore, generating hourly scenarios that include possible combinations of meteorological indicators for each hourly observation unit is a challenging problem. In this study, we provide secondary future climate scenario datasets that have hourly fluctuations with reasonable combinations of meteorological indicator values that are likely to occur simultaneously, without losing the long-term climate change trend in the existing daily climate scenarios based on global climate models. Historical hourly weather datasets observed from 2017 to 2019 (the reference years) are used to retrieve short-term fluctuations. Bias-corrected daily future climate scenario datasets generated using four global climate models (GFDL CM3, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5 and 2.6) are used to model long-term climate change. A total of 48 different types of hourly future scenario datasets for five meteorological indicators (temperature, solar radiation, humidity, rainfall, and wind speed) were acquired, targeting a projection period from 2020 to 2080, for 10 weather stations in Japan. The generated hourly climate scenario datasets can be used to project the quantitative impacts of climate change on targeted phenomena considering simultaneous interactions among multiple meteorological factors.}, }
@article {pmid35338470, year = {2022}, author = {Smith, GS and Anjum, E and Francis, C and Deanes, L and Acey, C}, title = {Climate Change, Environmental Disasters, and Health Inequities: The Underlying Role of Structural Inequalities.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {80-89}, pmid = {35338470}, issn = {2196-5412}, support = {U54 MD000214/MD/NIMHD NIH HHS/United States ; T32 ES007141/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Health Inequities ; Humans ; *Natural Disasters ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We review and analyze recent literature in public health, urban planning, and disaster management to better understand the relationships between climate change, natural disasters, and root causes of health disparities in the USA.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Existing scholarship establishes clear linkages between climate change and increasing occurrences and severity of natural disasters across the USA. The frequency and types of disasters vary by region and impact both short and long-term health outcomes. Current research highlights health inequities affecting lower income and minoritized communities disproportionately, but data-driven studies critically examining the role of structural inequalities in climate-induced health disparities are sparse. Adding to the body of knowledge, our conceptual framework maps how long-standing structural inequalities in policy, practice, and funding shape vulnerability of lower-income, racially and ethnically marginalized individuals. Vulnerability follows three common pathways: disparities in "exposure", "sensitivity", and "resiliency" before, during, and after a climate disaster. We recommend that future research, policy, and practice shift towards solutions that unearth and address the structural biases that cause environmental disaster and health inequities.}, }
@article {pmid35338194, year = {2022}, author = {Romitti, Y and Sue Wing, I}, title = {Author Correction: Heterogeneous climate change impacts on electricity demand in world cities circa mid-century.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {5204}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-022-09077-0}, pmid = {35338194}, issn = {2045-2322}, }
@article {pmid35337048, year = {2022}, author = {Chiu, SC and Hu, SC and Liao, LM and Chen, YH and Lin, JH}, title = {Norovirus Genogroup II Epidemics and the Potential Effect of Climate Change on Norovirus Transmission in Taiwan.}, journal = {Viruses}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {35337048}, issn = {1999-4915}, mesh = {*Caliciviridae Infections/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Epidemics ; Feces ; Genotype ; Humans ; *Norovirus/genetics ; Phylogeny ; Taiwan/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The activity of norovirus varies from season to season, and the effect of climate change on the incidence of norovirus outbreaks is a widely recognized yet poorly understood phenomenon. Investigation of the possible association between climatic factors and the incidence of norovirus is key to a better understanding of the epidemiology of norovirus and early prediction of norovirus outbreaks. In this study, clinical stool samples from acute gastroenteritis outbreaks were collected from January 2015 to June 2019 in Taiwan. Data analysis from our study indicated that more than half of the cases were reported in the winter and spring seasons, including those caused by norovirus of genotypes GII (genogroup II).2, GII.3, GII.6, and GII.17, and 45.1% of the patients who tested positive for norovirus were infected by the GII.4 norovirus in autumn. However, GII.6 norovirus accounted for a higher proportion of the cases reported in summer than any other strain. Temperature is a crucial factor influencing patterns of epidemic outbreaks caused by distinct genotypes of norovirus. The results of this study may help experts predict and issue early public warnings of norovirus transmission and understand the effect of climate change on norovirus outbreaks caused by different genotypes and occurring in different locations.}, }
@article {pmid35336744, year = {2022}, author = {Wu, Y and Huang, C}, title = {Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases in China: A Review of Evidence and Implications for Risk Management.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {35336744}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2018YFA0606200//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases have posed a heavy threat to public health, especially in the context of climate change. Currently, there is no comprehensive review of the impact of meteorological factors on all types of vector-borne diseases in China. Through a systematic review of literature between 2000 and 2021, this study summarizes the relationship between climate factors and vector-borne diseases and potential mechanisms of climate change affecting vector-borne diseases. It further examines the regional differences of climate impact. A total of 131 studies in both Chinese and English on 10 vector-borne diseases were included. The number of publications on mosquito-borne diseases is the largest and is increasing, while the number of studies on rodent-borne diseases has been decreasing in the past two decades. Temperature, precipitation, and humidity are the main parameters contributing to the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Both the association and mechanism show vast differences between northern and southern China resulting from nature and social factors. We recommend that more future research should focus on the effect of meteorological factors on mosquito-borne diseases in the era of climate change. Such information will be crucial in facilitating a multi-sectorial response to climate-sensitive diseases in China.}, }
@article {pmid35336613, year = {2022}, author = {Hebbar, KB and Abhin, PS and Sanjo Jose, V and Neethu, P and Santhosh, A and Shil, S and Prasad, PVV}, title = {Predicting the Potential Suitable Climate for Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) Cultivation in India under Climate Change Scenarios Using the MaxEnt Model.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {35336613}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Climate change and climate variability are projected to alter the geographic suitability of lands for crop cultivation. Early awareness of the future climate of the current cultivation areas for a perennial tree crop like coconut is needed for its adaptation and sustainable cultivation in vulnerable areas. We analyzed coconut's vulnerability to climate change in India, based on climate projections for the 2050s and the 2070s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. Based on the current cultivation regions and climate change predictions from seven ensembles of Global Circulation Models, we predict changes in relative climatic suitability for coconut cultivation using the MaxEnt model. Bioclimatic variables Bio 4 (temperature seasonality, 34.4%) and Bio 7 (temperature annual range, 28.7%) together contribute 63.1%, which along with Bio 15 (precipitation seasonality, 8.6%) determined 71.7% of the climate suitability for coconuts in India. The model projected that some current coconut cultivation producing areas will become unsuitable (plains of South interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) requiring crop change, while other areas will require adaptations in genotypic or agronomic management (east coast and the south interior plains), and yet in others, the climatic suitability for growing coconut will increase (west coast). The findings suggest the need for adaptation strategies so as to ensure sustainable cultivation of coconut at least in presently cultivated areas.}, }
@article {pmid35333584, year = {2022}, author = {Agbafe, V and Berlin, NL and Butler, CE and Hawk, E and Offodile Ii, AC}, title = {Prescriptions for Mitigating Climate Change-Related Externalities in Cancer Care: A Surgeon's Perspective.}, journal = {Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology}, volume = {40}, number = {18}, pages = {1976-1979}, doi = {10.1200/JCO.21.02581}, pmid = {35333584}, issn = {1527-7755}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Neoplasms ; Prescriptions ; *Surgeons ; }, }
@article {pmid35332554, year = {2023}, author = {Bates, JM and Fidino, M and Nowak-Boyd, L and Strausberger, BM and Schmidt, KA and Whelan, CJ}, title = {Climate change affects bird nesting phenology: Comparing contemporary field and historical museum nesting records.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {92}, number = {2}, pages = {263-272}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13683}, pmid = {35332554}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Humans ; Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Museums ; Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide ; Birds/physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global climate change impacts species and ecosystems in potentially harmful ways. For migratory bird species, earlier spring warm-up could lead to a mismatch between nesting activities and food availability. CO2 provides a useful proxy for temperature and an environmental indicator of climate change when temperature data are not available for an entire time series. Our objectives were to (a) examine nesting phenology over time; (b) determine how nesting phenology relates to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration; and (c) demonstrate the usefulness of historical museum collections combined with modern observations for trend analyses. We assessed changes in nesting dates of 72 bird species in the Upper Midwest of the United States by comparing contemporary lay dates with those obtained from archived, historical museum nest records over a 143-year period (1872-2015). Species-specific changes in lay date per one unit change in the CO2 residual ranged from -0.75 (95% CI: -1.57 to -0.10) to 0.45 (95% CI: -0.29 to 1.43). Overall, lay dates advanced ~10 days over the 143-year period. Resident, short-distance migrants and long-distance migrants lay dates advanced by ~15, 18 and 16 days on average respectively. Twenty-four species (33.3%) significantly advanced, one (1.4%) significantly delayed and we failed to detect an advance or delay in lay date for 47 species (65.3%). Overall mean advance in first lay date (for the species that have significantly advanced laying date) was 25.1 days (min: 10.7, max: 49.9). Our study highlights the scientific importance of both data gathering and archiving through time to understand phenological change. The detailed archived information reported by egg collectors provide the early data of our study. As with studies of egg-shell thinning and pesticide exposure, our use of these data illustrates another scientific utility of egg collections that these pioneer naturalists never imagined. As museums archive historical data, these locations are also ideal candidates to store contemporary field data as it is collected. Together, such information will provide the ability to track, understand and perhaps predict responses to human-driven environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid35331772, year = {2022}, author = {Seidenfaden, IK and Sonnenborg, TO and Børgesen, CD and Trolle, D and Olesen, JE and Refsgaard, JC}, title = {Impacts of land use, climate change and hydrological model structure on nitrate fluxes: Magnitudes and uncertainties.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {830}, number = {}, pages = {154671}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154671}, pmid = {35331772}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Hydrology ; *Nitrates/analysis ; Nitrogen Oxides ; Rivers/chemistry ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Nitrate pollution and eutrophication are of increasing concern in agriculturally dominated regions, and with projected future climate changes, these issues are expected to worsen for both surface and groundwater. Changes in land use and management have the potential to mitigate some of these concerns. However, to what extent these changes will interact is unknown, and are associated with significant uncertainty. Here, we estimate nitrate fluxes and contributions of major uncertainty sources (variance decomposition analysis) affecting nitrate leaching from the root zone and river load from groundwater sources for an agricultural catchment in Denmark under future changes (2080-2099) in climate (four climate models) and land use (four land use scenarios). To investigate the uncertainty from impact model choice, two different agro-hydrological models (SWAT and DAISY-MIKE SHE) both traditionally used for nitrate impact assessments are used for projecting these effects. On average, nitrate leaching from the root zone increased by 55%-123% due to different climate models, while the impact of land use scenarios showed changes between -9% and 88%, with similar projections for river loads, while the worst-case combination of the three factors yielded a fivefold increase in nitrate transport. Thus, in the future, major land use changes will be necessary to mitigate nitrate pollution likely in combination with other measures such as advanced management and farming technologies and differentiated regulation. The two agro-hydrological models showed substantially different reaction patterns and magnitude of nitrate fluxes, and while the largest uncertainty source was the land use scenarios for both models, DAISY-MIKE SHE was to a higher degree affected by climate model choice. The dominating uncertainty source was found to be the agro-hydrological model; however, both uncertainties related to land use scenario and climate model were important, thus highlighting the need to include all influential factors in future nitrate flux impact studies.}, }
@article {pmid35331574, year = {2022}, author = {Donnelly, MC and Stableforth, W and Krag, A and Reuben, A}, title = {The negative bidirectional interaction between climate change and the prevalence and care of liver disease: A joint BSG, BASL, EASL, and AASLD commentary.}, journal = {Journal of hepatology}, volume = {76}, number = {5}, pages = {995-1000}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhep.2022.02.012}, pmid = {35331574}, issn = {1600-0641}, mesh = {*Carcinoma, Hepatocellular ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Liver Neoplasms ; Prevalence ; }, }
@article {pmid35331440, year = {2022}, author = {Donnelly, MC and Stableforth, W and Krag, A and Reuben, A}, title = {The Negative Bidirectional Interaction Between Climate Change and the Prevalence and Care of Liver Disease: A Joint BSG, BASL, EASL, and AASLD Commentary.}, journal = {Gastroenterology}, volume = {162}, number = {6}, pages = {1561-1567}, doi = {10.1053/j.gastro.2022.02.020}, pmid = {35331440}, issn = {1528-0012}, mesh = {*Carcinoma, Hepatocellular ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Liver Neoplasms ; Prevalence ; }, }
@article {pmid35331384, year = {2022}, author = {Bermúdez-Tamayo, C and Segura, A and Álvarez-Dardet, C}, title = {[Special issue of Gaceta Sanitaria on primary care and community health and climate change and health].}, journal = {Gaceta sanitaria}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {100}, doi = {10.1016/j.gaceta.2022.02.001}, pmid = {35331384}, issn = {1578-1283}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Primary Health Care ; *Public Health ; Publishing ; Spain ; }, }
@article {pmid35330792, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, T}, title = {August Krogh, Carbonic Acid, Combustion of Coal, and Global Warming.}, journal = {Function (Oxford, England)}, volume = {2}, number = {6}, pages = {zqab052}, pmid = {35330792}, issn = {2633-8823}, mesh = {*Coal ; *Carbonic Acid ; Global Warming ; Chemical Phenomena ; }, }
@article {pmid35330293, year = {2022}, author = {Jones, EBG and Ramakrishna, S and Vikineswary, S and Das, D and Bahkali, AH and Guo, SY and Pang, KL}, title = {How Do Fungi Survive in the Sea and Respond to Climate Change?.}, journal = {Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {35330293}, issn = {2309-608X}, support = {MOST108-2621-B-019-001-, MOST109-2621-B-019-001-, MOST110-2621-M-019-002-//Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan/ ; Distinguished Scientist Fellowship Program (DSFP)//King Saud University/ ; }, abstract = {With the over 2000 marine fungi and fungal-like organisms documented so far, some have adapted fully to life in the sea, while some have the ability to tolerate environmental conditions in the marine milieu. These organisms have evolved various mechanisms for growth in the marine environment, especially against salinity gradients. This review highlights the response of marine fungi, fungal-like organisms and terrestrial fungi (for comparison) towards salinity variations in terms of their growth, spore germination, sporulation, physiology, and genetic adaptability. Marine, freshwater and terrestrial fungi and fungal-like organisms vary greatly in their response to salinity. Generally, terrestrial and freshwater fungi grow, germinate and sporulate better at lower salinities, while marine fungi do so over a wide range of salinities. Zoosporic fungal-like organisms are more sensitive to salinity than true fungi, especially Ascomycota and Basidiomycota. Labyrinthulomycota and marine Oomycota are more salinity tolerant than saprolegniaceous organisms in terms of growth and reproduction. Wide adaptability to saline conditions in marine or marine-related habitats requires mechanisms for maintaining accumulation of ions in the vacuoles, the exclusion of high levels of sodium chloride, the maintenance of turgor in the mycelium, optimal growth at alkaline pH, a broad temperature growth range from polar to tropical waters, and growth at depths and often under anoxic conditions, and these properties may allow marine fungi to positively respond to the challenges that climate change will bring. Other related topics will also be discussed in this article, such as the effect of salinity on secondary metabolite production by marine fungi, their evolution in the sea, and marine endophytes.}, }
@article {pmid35329012, year = {2022}, author = {Li, Q and Sun, P and Li, B and Mohiuddin, M}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Rural Poverty Vulnerability from an Income Source Perspective: A Study Based on CHIPS2013 and County-Level Temperature Data in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {35329012}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Income ; *Poverty ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Harsh natural climatic environments, such as extreme weather and natural disasters, cause devastating blows to production activities and increase the probability of geographic poverty, climate poverty, and return to poverty. Thus, this study uses climate data and micro survey data (CHIPS2013) to examine the impact of climate on vulnerability to individual poverty in rural China. The results demonstrated that extreme temperatures (hotter summers, colder winters, and greater day-to-day temperature gaps) reduce vulnerability to poverty. This was also supported by the median and average temperatures. Second, there is an association between poverty vulnerability and poverty; that is, poorer people will become poorer with an increase in poverty vulnerability. In fact, in the case of higher income, the higher the probability of returning to poverty, the higher the vulnerability. Policy formulation processes should take into consideration different types of impacts from harsh climate on different vulnerable groups. No single action might be adequate and an integrative approach integrating various strategies and actions are required to overcome challenges posed by climate change and poverty vulnerabilities.}, }
@article {pmid35328938, year = {2022}, author = {Nabhan, GP and Daugherty, E and Hartung, T}, title = {Health Benefits of the Diverse Volatile Oils in Native Plants of Ancient Ironwood-Giant Cactus Forests of the Sonoran Desert: An Adaptation to Climate Change?.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {35328938}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Cactaceae ; Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; Forests ; *Oils, Volatile ; Plants ; *Volatile Organic Compounds ; }, abstract = {We document the species richness and volatile oil diversity in Sonoran Desert plants found in the Arizona Uplands subdivision of this binational USA/Mexico region. Using floristics, we determined that more than 60 species of 178 native plants in the ancient ironwood-giant cactus forests emit fragrant biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), especially with the onset of summer monsoons. From these desert species, more than 115 volatile oils have been identified from one biogeographic region. For the 5 BVOCs most commonly associated with "forest bathing" practices in Asian temperate forests, at least 15 Sonoran Desert plant species emit them in Arizona Uplands vegetation. We document the potential health benefits attributed to each of 13 BVOCs in isolation, but we also hypothesize that the entire "suite" of BVOCs emitted from a diversity of desert plants during the monsoons may function synergistically to generate additional health benefits. Regular exposure to these BVOC health benefits may become more important to prevent or mitigate diseases of oxidative stress and other climate maladies in a hotter, drier world.}, }
@article {pmid35328754, year = {2022}, author = {Lan, Y and Chawade, A and Kuktaite, R and Johansson, E}, title = {Climate Change Impact on Wheat Performance-Effects on Vigour, Plant Traits and Yield from Early and Late Drought Stress in Diverse Lines.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {35328754}, issn = {1422-0067}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Phenotype ; Plant Breeding ; *Triticum/genetics ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is threatening wheat productivity; improved yield under drought conditions is urgent. Here, diverse spring-wheat lines (modern, old and wheat-rye introgressions) were examined in an image-based early-vigour assay and a controlled-conditions (Biotron) trial that evaluated 13 traits until maturity. Early root vigour was significantly higher in the old Swedish lines (root length 8.50 cm) and introgressed lines with 1R (11.78 cm) and 1RS (9.91 cm) than in the modern (4.20 cm) and 2R (4.67 cm) lines. No significant correlation was noted between early root and shoot vigour. A higher yield was obtained under early drought stress in the 3R genotypes than in the other genotype groups, while no clear patterns were noted under late drought. Evaluating the top 10% of genotypes in terms of the stress-tolerance index for yield showed that root biomass, grains and spikes per plant were accountable for tolerance to early drought, while 1000-grain weight and flag-leaf area were accountable for tolerance to late drought. Early root vigour was determined as an important focus trait of wheat breeding for tolerance to climate-change-induced drought. The responsible genes for the trait should be searched for in these diverse lines. Additional drought-tolerance traits determined here need further elaboration to identify the responsible genes.}, }
@article {pmid35328044, year = {2022}, author = {Dettori, M and Cesaraccio, C and Duce, P and Mereu, V}, title = {Performance Prediction of Durum Wheat Genotypes in Response to Drought and Heat in Climate Change Conditions.}, journal = {Genes}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {35328044}, issn = {2073-4425}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Genotype ; Hot Temperature ; Plant Breeding ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {With an approach combining crop modelling and biotechnology to assess the performance of three durum wheat cultivars (Creso, Duilio, Simeto) in a climate change context, weather and agronomic datasets over the period 1973-2004 from two sites, Benatzu and Ussana (Southern Sardinia, Itay), were used and the model responses were interpreted considering the role of DREB genes in the genotype performance with a focus on drought conditions. The CERES-Wheat crop model was calibrated and validated for grain yield, earliness and kernel weight. Forty-eight synthetic scenarios were used: 6 scenarios with increasing maximum air temperature; 6 scenarios with decreasing rainfall; 36 scenarios combining increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall. The simulated effects on yields, anthesis and kernel weights resulted in yield reduction, increasing kernel weight, and shortened growth duration in both sites. Creso (late cultivar) was the most sensitive to simulated climate conditions. Simeto and Duilio (early cultivars) showed lower simulated yield reductions and a larger anticipation of anthesis date. Observed data showed the same responses for the three cultivars in both sites. The CERES-Wheat model proved to be effective in representing reality and can be used in crop breeding programs with a molecular approach aiming at developing molecular markers for the resistance to drought stress.}, }
@article {pmid35325288, year = {2022}, author = {Correia, HE and Tveraa, T and Stien, A and Yoccoz, N}, title = {Nonlinear spatial and temporal decomposition provides insight for climate change effects on sub-Arctic herbivore populations.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {198}, number = {4}, pages = {889-904}, pmid = {35325288}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {DGE-1414475//National Science Foundation/ ; 276395//Research Council of Norway/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Herbivory ; Plants ; *Reindeer ; Seasons ; Snow ; }, abstract = {Global temperatures are increasing, affecting timing and availability of vegetation along with relationships between plants and their consumers. We examined the effect of population density, herd body condition in the previous year, elevation, plant productivity and phenology, snow, and winter onset on juvenile body mass in 63 semi-domesticated populations of Rangifer tarandus throughout Norway using spatiotemporal generalized additive models (GAMs) and varying coefficient models (VCMs). Optimal climate windows were calculated at both the regional and national level using a novel nonlinear climate window algorithm optimized for prediction. Spatial and temporal variation in effects of population and environmental predictors were considered using a model including covariates decomposed into spatial, temporal, and residual components. The performance of this decomposed model was compared to spatiotemporal GAMs and VCMs. The decomposed model provided the best fit and lowest prediction errors. A positive effect of herd body condition in the previous year explained most of the deviance in calf body mass, followed by a more complex effect of population density. A negative effect of timing of spring and positive effect of winter onset on juvenile body mass suggested that a snow free season was positive for juvenile body mass growth. Our findings suggest early spring onset and later winter permanent snow cover as reinforcers of early-life conditions which support more robust reindeer populations. Our methodological improvements for climate window analyses and effect size measures for decomposed variables provide important contributions to account for, measure, and interpret nonlinear relationships between climate and animal populations at large scales.}, }
@article {pmid35318516, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, L and Zeng, X and Yu, H}, title = {Association between Lake Sediment Nutrients and Climate Change, Human Activities: A Time-Series Analysis.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {70}, number = {1}, pages = {117-133}, pmid = {35318516}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Eutrophication ; Geologic Sediments ; Humans ; *Lakes ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Nutrients ; Phosphorus/analysis ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change and human activities are closely linked with the nutrient accumulation in sediments, but the role of influence factors and the driving mechanisms are unclear. Here, by using the generalized additive model (GAM), we investigated the contributions and driving mechanisms of climate change and human activities on TON, TN, and TP accumulation in sediments of typical lakes in the Huai River basin (Nansi Lake and Hongze Lake) from 1988 to 2018. The impacts of factors, such as air temperature (AT), real GDP per capita (GDP), population density (PD), crop sown area (CSA), artificial impervious area (AIA), and domestic sewage discharge (DSD) were considered in this study. The results of the multivariate GAM showed that the sediment variables were significantly affected by climate change in Nansi Lake, but not in Hongze Lake. AT and DSD contributed the most to the variation of sediment TOC in Nansi Lake, while the most critical factors affecting TN and TP were AT, PD and DSD. PD and CSA showed strong ability to explain the change of TOC in Hongze Lake, while CSA and DSD showed strong ability to explain the variations of TN and TP. The results show that the selected optimal multivariate GAM can well quantify the effects of climate change and human activities on nutrient enrichment in lake sediments. Effective recommendations are provided for decision-makers in developing water quality management plans to prevent eutrophication outbreaks in lake waters by targeting and controlling key factors.}, }
@article {pmid35317493, year = {2022}, author = {Li, Q and Samimi, C}, title = {Sub-Saharan Africa's international migration constrains its sustainable development under climate change.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {1873-1897}, pmid = {35317493}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is seen as a region of mass migration and population displacement caused by poverty, violent conflict, and environmental stress. However, empirical evidence is inconclusive regarding how SSA's international migration progressed and reacted during its march to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This article attempts to study the patterns and determinants of SSA's international migration and the cause and effects on sustainable development by developing a Sustainability Index and regression models. We find that international migration was primarily intra-SSA to low-income but high-population-density countries. Along with increased sustainability scores, international migration declined, but emigration rose. Climate extremes tend to affect migration and emigration but not universally. Dry extremes propelled migration, whereas wet extremes had an adverse effect. Hot extremes had an increasing effect but were insignificant. SSA's international migration was driven by food insecurity, low life expectancy, political instability and violence, high economic growth, unemployment, and urbanisation rates. The probability of emigration was mainly driven by high fertility. SSA's international migration promoted asylum seeking to Europe with the diversification of origin countries and a motive for economic wellbeing. 1% more migration flow or 1% higher probability of emigration led to a 0.2% increase in asylum seekers from SSA to Europe. Large-scale international migration and recurrent emigration constrained SSA's sustainable development in political stability, food security, and health, requiring adequate governance and institutions for better migration management and planning towards the SDGs.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01116-z.}, }
@article {pmid35317261, year = {2022}, author = {Aguilera, P and Ortiz, N and Becerra, N and Turrini, A and Gaínza-Cortés, F and Silva-Flores, P and Aguilar-Paredes, A and Romero, JK and Jorquera-Fontena, E and Mora, ML and Borie, F}, title = {Application of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi in Vineyards: Water and Biotic Stress Under a Climate Change Scenario: New Challenge for Chilean Grapevine Crop.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {826571}, pmid = {35317261}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {The crop Vitis vinifera (L.) is of great economic importance as Chile is one of the main wine-producing countries, reaching a vineyard area of 145,000 ha. This vine crop is usually very sensitive to local condition changes and agronomic practices; therefore, strategies to counteract the expected future decrease in water level for agricultural irrigation, temperature increase, extreme water stress (abiotic stress), as well as increase in pathogenic diseases (biotic stress) related to climate change will be of vital importance for this crop. Studies carried out in recent years have suggested that arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) can provide key ecosystem services to host plants, such as water uptake implementation and enhanced absorption of nutrients such as P and N, which are key factors for improving the nutritional status of the vine. AMF use in viticulture will contribute also to sustainable agronomic management and bioprotection against pathogens. Here we will present (1) the current status of grapevines in Chile, (2) the main problems in grapevines related to water stress and associated with climate change, (3) the importance of AMF to face water stress and pathogens, and (4) the application of AMF as a biotechnological and sustainable tool in vineyards.}, }
@article {pmid35316945, year = {2022}, author = {Koot, EM and Morgan-Richards, M and Trewick, SA}, title = {Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {211596}, pmid = {35316945}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using their current distributions and current conditions. Niche models were then projected for two future global climate scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0°C rise) and RCP8.5 (3.7°C rise). Results were species specific, with two-thirds of our models suggesting a reduction in potential range for nine species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species, we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when the limited dispersal ability of these flightless grasshoppers is taken into account, all 12 species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96-100% reduction in suitable habitat. Habitat loss is associated with habitat fragmentation that is likely to escalate stochastic vulnerability of remaining populations. Here, we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand and internationally, are subject to by anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35314961, year = {2022}, author = {Seritan, AL and Coverdale, J and Brenner, AM}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health Curricula: Addressing Barriers to Teaching.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {551-555}, pmid = {35314961}, issn = {1545-7230}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Teaching ; }, }
@article {pmid35314231, year = {2022}, author = {Krztoń, W and Walusiak, E and Wilk-Woźniak, E}, title = {Possible consequences of climate change on global water resources stored in dam reservoirs.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {830}, number = {}, pages = {154646}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154646}, pmid = {35314231}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; Humans ; Rivers ; *Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Construction of dams and transformation of rivers, not only affects river-related and adjacent habitats, but also establishes new threats to surface freshwater resources globally. Predicted climate changes and increase of mean annual temperature will affect thermal regimes of dam reservoir ecosystems, severely altering their functioning. Analyzing three projections of representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) for period of 2061-2080, we found that mean annual temperature at dam reservoir locations will increase by 3.06 °C to 4.74 °C from present. The highest projected increase of temperature was identified for dam reservoirs located in high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere, and therefore dam reservoirs located there will be most significantly affected. Numerous consequences of temperature increase are already recorded. Further increase will amplify unfavorable effects on numerous ecosystems, including dam reservoirs which are built on the purpose of the human population development. Our study indicates a threat for artificially stored water globally, with special attention to high latitudes in northern hemisphere and latitudes close to 20[0]S meridian in southern hemisphere.}, }
@article {pmid35314224, year = {2022}, author = {Michetti, M and Gualtieri, M and Anav, A and Adani, M and Benassi, B and Dalmastri, C and D'Elia, I and Piersanti, A and Sannino, G and Zanini, G and Uccelli, R}, title = {Climate change and air pollution: Translating their interplay into present and future mortality risk for Rome and Milan municipalities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {830}, number = {}, pages = {154680}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154680}, pmid = {35314224}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Cities ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Mortality ; Rome/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Heat and cold temperatures associated with exposure to poor air quality lead to increased mortality. Using a generalized linear model with Poisson regression for overdispersion, this study quantifies the natural-caused mortality burden attributable to heat/cold temperatures and PM10 and O3 air pollutants in Rome and Milan, the two most populated Italian cities. We calculate local-specific mortality relative risks (RRs) for the period 2004-2015 considering the overall population and the most vulnerable age category (≥85 years). Combining a regional climate model with a chemistry-transport model under future climate and air pollution scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), we then project mortality to 2050. Results show that for historical mortality the burden is much larger for cold than for warm temperatures. RR peaks during wintertime in Milan and summertime in Rome, highlighting the relevance of accounting for the effects of air pollution besides that of climate, in particular PM10 for Milan and O3 for Rome. Overall, Milan reports higher RRs while, in both cities, the elderly appear more susceptible to heat/cold and air pollution events than the average population. Two counterbalancing effects shape mortality in the future: an increase associated with higher and more frequent warmer daily temperatures - especially in the case of climate inaction - and a decrease due to declining cold-mortality burden. The outcomes highlight the urgent need to adopt more stringent and integrated climate and air quality policies to reduce the temperature and air pollution combined effects on health.}, }
@article {pmid35312374, year = {2022}, author = {Aze, T}, title = {Unraveling ecological signals from a global warming event of the past.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {13}, pages = {e2201495119}, pmid = {35312374}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; }, }
@article {pmid35312144, year = {2022}, author = {Hapsari, KA and Jennerjahn, T and Nugroho, SH and Yulianto, E and Behling, H}, title = {Sea level rise and climate change acting as interactive stressors on development and dynamics of tropical peatlands in coastal Sumatra and South Borneo since the Last Glacial Maximum.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {10}, pages = {3459-3479}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16131}, pmid = {35312144}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Borneo ; Carbon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Indonesia ; Sea Level Rise ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Southeast Asian peatlands, along with their various important ecosystem services, are mainly distributed in the coastal areas of Sumatra and Borneo. These ecosystems are threatened by coastal development, global warming and sea level rise (SLR). Despite receiving growing attention for their biodiversity and as massive carbon stores, there is still a lack of knowledge on how they initiated and evolved over time, and how they responded to past environmental change, that is, precipitation, sea level and early anthropogenic activities. To improve our understanding thereof, we conducted multi-proxy paleoecological studies in the Kampar Peninsula and Katingan peatlands in the coastal area of Riau and Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. The results indicate that the initiation timing and environment of both peatlands are very distinct, suggesting that peat could form under various vegetation as soon as there is sufficient moisture to limit organic matter decomposition. The past dynamics of both peatlands were mainly attributable to natural drivers, while anthropogenic activities were hardly relevant. Changes in precipitation and sea level led to shifts in peat swamp forest vegetation, peat accumulation rates and fire regimes at both sites. We infer that the simultaneous occurrence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and SLR resulted in synergistic effects which led to the occurrence of severe fires in a pristine coastal peatland ecosystem; however, it did not interrupt peat accretion. In the future, SLR, combined with the projected increase in frequency and intensity of ENSO, can potentially amplify the negative effects of anthropogenic peatland fires. This prospectively stimulates massive carbon release, thus could, in turn, contribute to worsening the global climate crisis especially once an as yet unknown threshold is crossed and peat accretion is halted, that is, peatlands lose their carbon sink function. Given the current rapid SLR, coastal peatland managements should start develop fire risk reduction or mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid35310630, year = {2022}, author = {Ling, Z and Shi, Z and Gu, S and Wang, T and Zhu, W and Feng, G}, title = {Impact of Climate Change and Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) Plantation Expansion on Reference Evapotranspiration in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {830519}, pmid = {35310630}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) cultivation plantation over the past few decades has been significantly explosive in Xishuangbanna, southwest China. More and more evidences concerning the expansion of rubber plantations lead to the negative influence to local regional hydrology. It is vital to explore the impact of climate change and rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) plantation expansion on reference evapotranspiration (ET0) for the sustainable and efficient use of regional water resources. In this study, the spatiotemporal variation of ET0 as well as its relationship in rubber plantations area in Xishuangbanna from 1970-2017 were analyzed by using trend, correlation and contribution analysis. The results showed that the rubber plantation was 12,768 ha yr[-1] from 1990 to 2017 in Xishuangbanna, and nearly 40.8% of new rubber plantations expanded above 900 m in altitude from 2000 to 2017. Sunshine duration and average relative humidity were the key meteorological factors that affect ET0 in Xishuangbanna, with the sensitivity coefficient of 0.51 and 0.35, respectively. The multiyear relative change of ET0 in Xishuangbanna was 9.18%, and the total contribution of major climate factors was 7.87% during 1970 and 2017. The average relative humidity in the plantation area decreases, which directly leads to the increase of ET0. The amount of ET0 change from 2000 to 2017 affected by climate change increased at 3.13 mm/10a, whereas it was 2.17 mm/10a affected by the expansion of rubber plantations by quantitative separation. ET0 was significantly affected by climate change but intensified by the expansion of rubber plantation.}, }
@article {pmid35307429, year = {2022}, author = {Cooper, J and Dubey, L and Bakkaloglu, S and Hawkes, A}, title = {Hydrogen emissions from the hydrogen value chain-emissions profile and impact to global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {830}, number = {}, pages = {154624}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154624}, pmid = {35307429}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Hydrogen ; Methane/analysis ; Natural Gas/analysis ; }, abstract = {Future energy systems could rely on hydrogen (H2) to achieve decarbonisation and net-zero goals. In a similar energy landscape to natural gas, H2 emissions occur along the supply chain. It has been studied how current gas infrastructure can support H2, but there is little known about how H2 emissions affect global warming as an indirect greenhouse gas. In this work, we have estimated for the first time the potential emission profiles (g CO2eq/MJ H2,HHV) of H2 supply chains, and found that the emission rates of H2 from H2 supply chains and methane from natural gas supply are comparable, but the impact on global warming is much lower based on current estimates. This study also demonstrates the critical importance of establishing mobile H2 emission monitoring and reducing the uncertainty of short-lived H2 climate forcing so as to clearly address H2 emissions for net-zero strategies.}, }
@article {pmid35307372, year = {2022}, author = {Fang, Q and Wang, G and Zhang, S and Peng, Y and Xue, B and Cao, Y and Shrestha, S}, title = {A novel ecohydrological model by capturing variations in climate change and vegetation coverage in a semi-arid region of China.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {211}, number = {}, pages = {113085}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.113085}, pmid = {35307372}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Soil ; Water ; }, abstract = {Variations in vegetation are influenced by regional climate regimes and, in turn, control the water balance behavior in water-limited regions. Owing to its role in ecohydrological processes, vegetation is an essential link in modeling the relationships among climate conditions, vegetation patterns, and dynamic water balance behavior. However, previous ecohydrological models have been empirical and complex, without physically significant parameters. Here, we propose a novel ecohydrological model (a Budyko model-coupled vegetation model) that combines the impacts of climate change and vegetation variations, featuring simple and deterministic parameters. In addition to accounting for the fundamental water balance model and its factors, mean precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, runoff, and variations in water storage (δS), the model showed better performance when incorporating δS (RMSE = 2.72 mm yr[-1]) and its parameter ε -, which is mechanically and quantitively subject to the vegetation coverage (R[2] = 0.95, p < 0.01). This was estimated as a function of vegetation potential canopy conductance, mean rainstorm depth, mean time between storms, and potential rate of evapotranspiration in a semi-arid watershed with impulsive precipitation in China (R[2] = 0.80, p < 0.01). The model also found that vegetation growth was mainly controlled by soil water content and decoupled the impact of the total amount of precipitation on vegetation in the northeastern area of the watershed. Hence, our method presents a new tool for building an ecohydrological model that includes deterministic parameters of mechanical significance.}, }
@article {pmid35304443, year = {2022}, author = {Li, X and Gallagher, KP}, title = {Assessing the climate change exposure of foreign direct investment.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1451}, pmid = {35304443}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Economic Development ; Internationality ; *Investments ; }, abstract = {This study deploys newly available data to examine the exposure of multinational companies' overseas investments to physical climate risks. Globally, foreign investments are significantly exposed to lower physical climate risks, compared with local firms across countries. Within countries however, the differences of physical climate risks between foreign and local facilities are small. We also examine China, as it is fast becoming one of the largest sources of outward foreign investment across the globe. We find that foreign direct investment from China is significantly more exposed to water stress, floods, hurricanes and typhoon risks across countries, compared with other foreign facilities. Within host countries however, once again the physical climate risks of Chinese overseas facilities are comparable to those of non-Chinese foreign investments.}, }
@article {pmid35301036, year = {2022}, author = {Tan, K and Zhang, H and Zheng, H}, title = {Climate change and n-3 LC-PUFA availability.}, journal = {Progress in lipid research}, volume = {86}, number = {}, pages = {101161}, doi = {10.1016/j.plipres.2022.101161}, pmid = {35301036}, issn = {1873-2194}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; Climate Change ; *Fatty Acids, Omega-3 ; Phytoplankton ; }, abstract = {Omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 LC-PUFA) are essential fatty acids for the growth, development and survival of virtually all organisms. There is increasing evidence that anthropogenic climate change has a direct and indirect impact on the availability of natural n-3 LC-PUFA. However, this information is fragmented and not well organized. Therefore, this article reviewed published data from laboratory experiments, field experiments and model simulations to reveal the impact of climate change on the global supply of natural n-3 LC-PUFA and how this will limit the availability of n-3 LC-PUFA in the future food web. In general, climate change can significantly reduce the availability of natural n-3 LC-PUFA in grazing food webs in the following ways: 1) decrease the total biomass of phytoplankton and shift the plankton community structure to a smaller size, which also reduce the biomass of animals in higher trophics; 2) reduce the n-3 LC-PUFA content and/or quality (n-3: n-6 ratio) of all marine organisms; 3) reduce the transfer efficiency of n-3 LC-PUFA in grazing food web. In addition, as an anthropogenic climate adaptation measure, this review also proposed some alternative sources of n-3 LC-PUFA and determined the direction of future research. The information in this article is very useful for providing a critical analysis of the impact of climate change on the supply of natural n-3 LC-PUFA. Such information will aid to establish climate adaptation or management measures, and determine the direction of future research.}, }
@article {pmid35299646, year = {2022}, author = {Nelson, LK and Bogeberg, M and Cullen, A and Koehn, LE and Strawn, A and Levin, PS}, title = {Perspectives on managing fisheries for community wellbeing in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Maritime studies : MAST}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {235-254}, pmid = {35299646}, issn = {2212-9790}, abstract = {Coastal communities are being impacted by climate change, affecting the livelihoods, food security, and wellbeing of residents. Human wellbeing is influenced by the heath of the environment through numerous pathways and is increasingly being included as a desired outcome in environmental management. However, the contributors to wellbeing can be subjective and the values and perspectives of decision-makers can affect the aspects of wellbeing that are included in planning. We used Q methodology to examine how a group of individuals in fisheries management prioritize components of wellbeing that may be important to coastal communities in the California Current social-ecological system (SES). The California Current SES is an integrated system of ecological and human communities with complex linkages and connections where commercial fishing is part of the culture and an important livelihood. We asked individuals that sit on advisory bodies to the Pacific Fisheries Management Council to rank 36 statements about coastal community wellbeing, ultimately revealing three discourses about how we can best support or improve wellbeing in those communities. We examine how the priorities differ between the discourses, identify areas of consensus, and discuss how these perspectives may influence decision-making when it comes to tradeoffs inherent in climate adaptation in fisheries. Lastly, we consider if and how thoughts about priorities have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.}, }
@article {pmid35298094, year = {2022}, author = {Heikkinen, J and Keskinen, R and Kostensalo, J and Nuutinen, V}, title = {Climate change induces carbon loss of arable mineral soils in boreal conditions.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {12}, pages = {3960-3973}, pmid = {35298094}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Bayes Theorem ; Carbon ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Minerals ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {One-fourth of the global soil organic carbon (SOC) is stored in the boreal region, where climate change is predicted to be faster than the global average. Planetary warming is accelerated if climate change promotes SOC release into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. However, the soil carbon-climate feedbacks have been poorly confirmed by SOC measurements despite their importance on global climate. In this study, we used data collected as part of the Finnish arable soil monitoring program to study the influence of climate change, management practices, and historical land use on changes in SOC content using a Bayesian approach. Topsoil samples (n = 385) collected nationwide in 2009 and 2018 showed that SOC content has decreased at the rate of 0.35% year[-1] on average. Based on the Bayesian modeling of our data, we can say with a certainty of 79%-91% that increase in summertime (May-Sep) temperature has resulted in SOC loss while increased precipitation has resulted in SOC loss with a certainty of 90%-97%. The exact percentages depend on the climate dataset used. Historical land use was found to influence the SOC content for decades after conversion to cropland. Former organic soils with a high SOC-to-fine-fraction ratio were prone to high SOC loss. In fields with long cultivation history (>100 years), however, the SOC-to-fine-fraction ratio had stabilized to approximately 0.03-0.04 and the changes in SOC content leveled off. Our results showed that, although arable SOC sequestration can be promoted by diversifying crop rotations and by cultivating perennial grasses, it is unlikely that improved management practices are sufficient to counterbalance the climate change-induced SOC losses in boreal conditions. This underlines the importance of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the acceleration of planetary warming.}, }
@article {pmid35297000, year = {2022}, author = {Zahoor, B and Liu, X and Songer, M}, title = {The impact of climate change on three indicator Galliformes species in the northern highlands of Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {36}, pages = {54330-54347}, pmid = {35297000}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {27847-1//Rufford Foundation/ ; 41671183//Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41271194//Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Galliformes ; Pakistan ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The rise in global temperature is one of the main threats of extinction to many vulnerable species by the twenty-first century. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest-dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha, and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current (average for 1960-1990) and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (ii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to average lose around one-third (35%) in 2050 and one-half (47%) by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iii) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily > 3000 m in the future. Our results help inform management plans and conservation strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on three indicator Galliforms species in the NHP.}, }
@article {pmid35296730, year = {2022}, author = {Mather, B and Müller, RD and O'Neill, C and Beall, A and Vervoort, RW and Moresi, L}, title = {Constraining the response of continental-scale groundwater flow to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {4539}, pmid = {35296730}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Groundwater/chemistry ; Oceans and Seas ; Water ; }, abstract = {Numerical models of groundwater flow play a critical role for water management scenarios under climate extremes. Large-scale models play a key role in determining long range flow pathways from continental interiors to the oceans, yet struggle to simulate the local flow patterns offered by small-scale models. We have developed a highly scalable numerical framework to model continental groundwater flow which capture the intricate flow pathways between deep aquifers and the near-surface. The coupled thermal-hydraulic basin structure is inferred from hydraulic head measurements, recharge estimates from geochemical proxies, and borehole temperature data using a Bayesian framework. We use it to model the deep groundwater flow beneath the Sydney-Gunnedah-Bowen Basin, part of Australia's largest aquifer system. Coastal aquifers have flow rates of up to 0.3 m/day, and a corresponding groundwater residence time of just 2,000 years. In contrast, our model predicts slow flow rates of 0.005 m/day for inland aquifers, resulting in a groundwater residence time of [Formula: see text] 400,000 years. Perturbing the model to account for a drop in borehole water levels since 2000, we find that lengthened inland flow pathways depart significantly from pre-2000 streamlines as groundwater is drawn further from recharge zones in a drying climate. Our results illustrate that progressively increasing water extraction from inland aquifers may permanently alter long-range flow pathways. Our open-source modelling approach can be extended to any basin and may help inform policies on the sustainable management of groundwater.}, }
@article {pmid35295625, year = {2022}, author = {Sammarco, I and Münzbergová, Z and Latzel, V}, title = {DNA Methylation Can Mediate Local Adaptation and Response to Climate Change in the Clonal Plant Fragaria vesca: Evidence From a European-Scale Reciprocal Transplant Experiment.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {827166}, pmid = {35295625}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The ongoing climate crisis represents a growing threat for plants and other organisms. However, how and if plants will be able to adapt to future environmental conditions is still debated. One of the most powerful mechanisms allowing plants to tackle the changing climate is phenotypic plasticity, which can be regulated by epigenetic mechanisms. Environmentally induced epigenetic variation mediating phenotypic plasticity might be heritable across (a)sexual generations, thus potentially enabling rapid adaptation to climate change. Here, we assessed whether epigenetic mechanisms, DNA methylation in particular, enable for local adaptation and response to increased and/or decreased temperature of natural populations of a clonal plant, Fragaria vesca (wild strawberry). We collected ramets from three populations along a temperature gradient in each of three countries covering the southern (Italy), central (Czechia), and northern (Norway) edges of the native European range of F. vesca. After clonal propagation and alteration of DNA methylation status of half of the plants via 5-azacytidine, we reciprocally transplanted clones to their home locality and to the other two climatically distinct localities within the country of their origin. At the end of the growing season, we recorded survival and aboveground biomass as fitness estimates. We found evidence for local adaptation in intermediate and cold populations in Italy and maladaptation of plants of the warmest populations in all countries. Plants treated with 5-azacytidine showed either better or worse performance in their local conditions than untreated plants. Application of 5-azacytidine also affected plant response to changed climatic conditions when transplanted to the colder or warmer locality than was their origin, and the response was, however, country-specific. We conclude that the increasing temperature will probably be the limiting factor determining F. vesca survival and distribution. DNA methylation may contribute to local adaptation and response to climatic change in natural ecosystems; however, its role may depend on the specific environmental conditions. Since adaptation mediated by epigenetic variation may occur faster than via natural selection on genetic variants, epigenetic adaptation might to some degree help plants in keeping up with the ongoing environmental crisis.}, }
@article {pmid35294974, year = {2022}, author = {Daoudi, M and Outammassine, A and Amane, M and Hafidi, M and Boussaa, S and Boumezzough, A}, title = {Climate Change Influences on the Potential Distribution of the Sand Fly Phlebotomus sergenti, Vector of Leishmania tropica in Morocco.}, journal = {Acta parasitologica}, volume = {67}, number = {2}, pages = {858-866}, pmid = {35294974}, issn = {1896-1851}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Insect Vectors ; *Leishmania tropica ; *Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/epidemiology ; Morocco/epidemiology ; *Phlebotomus ; *Psychodidae ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Leishmaniases are a vector-borne disease, re-emerging in several regions of the world posing a burden on public health. As other vector-borne diseases, climate change is a crucial factor affecting the evolution of leishmaniasis. In Morocco, anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is widespread geographically as many foci across the country, mainly in central Morocco. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ACL due to Leishmania tropica, and its corresponding vector Phlebotomus sergenti in Morocco.<br><br>METHODS: Using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) tool, the estimated geographical range shift of L. tropica and P. sergenti by 2050 was projected under two Representative's Concentration's Pathways (RCPs) to be 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively. P. sergenti records were obtained from field collections of the laboratory team and previously published entomological observations, while, epidemiological data for&#xa0;L. tropica were obtained from Moroccan Ministry of Health reports.<br><br>RESULTS: Our models under present-day conditions indicated a probable expansion for L. tropica as well as for its vector in Morocco, P. sergenti. It showed a concentrated distribution in the west-central and northern area of Morocco. Future predictions anticipate expansion into areas not identified as suitable for P. sergenti under present conditions, particularly in northern and southeastern areas of Morocco. L. tropica is also expected to have high expansion in southern areas for the next 30&#xa0;years in Morocco.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This indicates that L. tropica and P. sergenti will continue to find suitable climate conditions in the future. A higher abundance of P. sergenti may indeed result in a higher transmission risk of ACL. This information is essential in developing a control plan for ACL in Morocco. However, future investigations on L. tropica reservoirs are needed to confirm our predictions.}, }
@article {pmid35294661, year = {2022}, author = {Ferreira, RB and Parreira, MR and de Arruda, FV and Falcão, MJA and de Freitas Mansano, V and Nabout, JC}, title = {Combining ecological niche models with experimental seed germination to estimate the effect of climate change on the distribution of endangered plant species in the Brazilian Cerrado.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {4}, pages = {283}, pmid = {35294661}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {001//CAPES/ ; 001//CAPES/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Environmental Monitoring ; Germination ; Seeds ; }, abstract = {Predicting the geographic distribution of plants that provide ecosystem services is essential to understand the adaptation of communities and conserve that group toward climate change. Predictions can be more accurate if changes in physiological characteristics of species due to those changes are included. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the different hierarchical levels of Apuleia leiocarpa (Vogel) J. F. Macbr. (Fabaceae). Therefore, we experimentally evaluate the effect of different temperatures on the initial development (vigor) and estimate the impact of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of the species, using ecological niche approaches. For the experiment, we used 11 temperature intervals of 2 °C ranging from 21 to 41 °C. We used ecological niche modeling techniques (ENM) to predict the species' environmental suitability in future climate scenarios. The association between the experiment and niche models was obtained by testing the relationships of temperature increase on the species vigor and geographic distribution. This conceptual model to determine the direct and indirect effects of temperature was generated using the methodological framework of structural equation models. The experiment showed that the seeds had the highest growth at 31 °C. ENMs indicated that due to climate change, there is a tendency for the plant to migrate to regions with milder temperatures. However, such regions may be unsuitable for the plant since they do not have ideal temperatures to germinate, which may cause a drastic reduction in their availability in a future climate change scenario. The inclusion of seed germination through experimental research allowed us to detect an area that is less suitable for germination despite being climatically suitable for the species. Thus, research that integrates the effect of climate on the different stages of the organism's development is essential to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid35294593, year = {2022}, author = {Roth, M and Herrmann, ME and Geerling, G and Guthoff, R}, title = {[Current and future effects of climate change on ophthalmology].}, journal = {Die Ophthalmologie}, volume = {119}, number = {6}, pages = {552-560}, pmid = {35294593}, issn = {2731-7218}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Global Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Climate change is also an increasingly important issue in the healthcare system. Due to its anatomical and physiological nature, the eye is directly exposed to environmental influences and changes in a special way.<br><br>METHODS: The current literature is used to illustrate the effects of climate-induced changes and the respective influences on the eye. A&#xa0;PubMed search (cut-off date 3 October 2021) using the search terms "climate change" or "planetary health" or "global health" and in each case "ophthalmology" or "eye" or "ocular" was used to determine the development of the number of publications between 2011 and 2021.<br><br>RESULTS: Measurable effects of climate change are already evident in a&#xa0;wide variety of ophthalmological fields. The significance of this topic, for instance, is reflected in a&#xa0;relatively constant increase in the number of publications and an almost tenfold increase in the number of publications per year from 2011 to 2021.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The impact of climate change on eye diseases and on the field of ophthalmology is multifaceted and could be expected to intensify in the coming years. Therefore, the interrelationships need to be further investigated in future studies, preferably on a&#xa0;large scale.}, }
@article {pmid35294570, year = {2022}, author = {von Hirschhausen, E and Lerch, MM}, title = {[Conversation on the impact of climate change on medicine and mankind].}, journal = {Der Internist}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {397-400}, doi = {10.1007/s00108-022-01299-8}, pmid = {35294570}, issn = {1432-1289}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35294173, year = {2022}, author = {Li, H and Yang, Y and Wang, H and Wang, P and Yue, X and Liao, H}, title = {Projected Aerosol Changes Driven by Emissions and Climate Change Using a Machine Learning Method.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {56}, number = {7}, pages = {3884-3893}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.1c04380}, pmid = {35294173}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Aerosols/analysis ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Climate Change ; Machine Learning ; }, abstract = {Projection of future aerosols and understanding the driver of the aerosol changes are of great importance in improving the atmospheric environment and climate change mitigation. The latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides various climate projections but limited aerosol output. In this study, future near-surface aerosol concentrations from 2015 to 2100 are predicted based on a machine learning method. The machine learning model is trained with global atmospheric chemistry model results and projects aerosols with CMIP6 multi-model simulations, creatively estimating future aerosols with all important species considered. PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) concentrations in 2095 (2091-2100 mean) are projected to decrease by 40% in East Asia, 20-35% in South Asia, and 15-25% in Europe and North America, compared to those in 2020 (2015-2024 mean), under low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5), which are mainly due to the presumed emission reductions. Driven by the climate change alone, PM2.5 concentrations would increase by 10-25% in northern China and western U.S. and decrease by 0-25% in southern China, South Asia, and Europe under the high forcing scenario (SSP5-8.5). A warmer climate exerts a stronger modulation on global aerosols. Climate-driven global future aerosol changes are found to be comparable to those contributed by changes in anthropogenic emissions over many regions of the world in high forcing scenarios, highlighting the importance of climate change in regulating future air quality.}, }
@article {pmid35292703, year = {2022}, author = {Hart, EH and Christofides, SR and Davies, TE and Rees Stevens, P and Creevey, CJ and Müller, CT and Rogers, HJ and Kingston-Smith, AH}, title = {Forage grass growth under future climate change scenarios affects fermentation and ruminant efficiency.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {4454}, pmid = {35292703}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {BB/R019185/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/R018464/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BBS/E/W/0012843D/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Fermentation ; Humans ; Plant Breeding ; *Poaceae ; Rumen/metabolism ; Ruminants ; }, abstract = {With an increasing human population access to ruminant products is an important factor in global food supply. While ruminants contribute to climate change, climate change could also affect ruminant production. Here we investigated how the plant response to climate change affects forage quality and subsequent rumen fermentation. Models of near future climate change (2050) predict increases in temperature, CO2, precipitation and altered weather systems which will produce stress responses in field crops. We hypothesised that pre-exposure to altered climate conditions causes compositional changes and also primes plant cells such that their post-ingestion metabolic response to the rumen is altered. This "stress memory" effect was investigated by screening ten forage grass varieties in five differing climate scenarios, including current climate (2020), future climate (2050), or future climate plus flooding, drought or heat shock. While varietal differences in fermentation were detected in terms of gas production, there was little effect of elevated temperature or CO2 compared with controls (2020). All varieties consistently showed decreased digestibility linked to decreased methane production as a result of drought or an acute flood treatment. These results indicate that efforts to breed future forage varieties should target tolerance of acute stress rather than long term climate.}, }
@article {pmid35290585, year = {2022}, author = {Abbas, S and Kousar, S and Khan, MS}, title = {The role of climate change in food security; empirical evidence over Punjab regions, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {35}, pages = {53718-53736}, pmid = {35290585}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Economic Development ; Food Security ; Pakistan ; Reproducibility of Results ; Triticum ; }, abstract = {Climate change is bringing drastic changes to the food availability, accessibility, quality, and stability in the world. Pakistan heavily relies on production of wheat for food security. This study investigates the role of climate change on food security over Punjab regions, Pakistan, from 1979-2020. The study utilized the total production of wheat to measure food security. Moreover, the study utilized mean, maximum, minimum temperature, wind speed, and rainfall as a measurement of climate change. This study utilized auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test cointegration approach to test the long-run cointegration, while ARDL model is applied to investigate the short-run relationship among modeled variables. This study adopted Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Parron (PP) test to check the stationarity of the data. Moreover, the study ensures reliability and validity of the model by utilizing Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation, Breusch-Pagan-Godfry HSK, and Ramsey RESET test. This study found that wheat cultivated area (0.46*), total irrigated area (2.67***), total un-irrigated area (1.93***), and total area sown ([1.0809**) have a positive and significant long-run impact on food production in all regions of Punjab Pakistan. However, while average, the maximum and minimum temperature is negatively and significantly associated with food production in all regions of Punjab (- 1.07**; - 3.33***; - 1.84**), except northern Punjab, where maximum temperature affects positively food production Punjab. Rainfall negatively and significantly affects food production in northern (- 0.34**) and central and southern (- 0.13***) Punjab. Furthermore, wind speed negatively affects food production in all regions of Punjab (- 0.22**; - 0.21*; - 0.11**), except northern Punjab. This study implies that government should develop policies to increase irrigation facilities and loan facilities to increase the total area sown that will help to increase wheat yield and ensure food security. Moreover, the government should devise policies for large-scale plantations to minimize climate change impacts. The study also suggests new improved varieties of the wheat crop that can survive and flourish in the presence of adverse climatic changes, high temperature, and high wind speed.}, }
@article {pmid35288491, year = {2022}, author = {Yamasaki, L and Nomura, S}, title = {Global warming and the Summer Olympic and Paralympic games: a perspective from the Tokyo 2020 Games.}, journal = {Environmental health and preventive medicine}, volume = {27}, number = {}, pages = {7}, pmid = {35288491}, issn = {1347-4715}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Sports ; Temperature ; Tokyo ; }, abstract = {The Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games provided a significant opportunity to consider global warming as an issue to be seriously addressed to run the safe and fair games in the era of climate change. As the global temperature continuously rises and extreme hot-weather events increase in frequency and intensity, the future summer Olympic and Paralympic games will need to deal with the heat by applying thorough and appropriate countermeasures. In the recent decades, many mitigation measures to protect athletes from heat have been rapidly discussed by the sports community, including countermeasures to hold games at times and places with moderate temperature and climatic risk assessments with Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) during the games. However, the excessive heat conditions in the Tokyo 2020 Games affected not only athletes, but also all people concerned the events. While deliberate considerations by organizers had been given to mitigate extraordinary heat, the evaluations of these measures and epidemiological analyses of risk factors of patients must be further enhanced to develop efficient measures for the future. Therefore, we discussed the underlying climate-related problems of the summer Olympic and Paralympic Games in view of what we had experienced in the Tokyo 2020 Games. Facing with emerging global warming, future intervention against heat in the summer Olympic and Paralympic games will need to integrate systematic disease surveillance and evaluation of intervention with an effective combination with the approaches previously conducted. The Tokyo 2020 Games is a wake-up call to accelerate the public health measures towards the creeping global warming.}, }
@article {pmid35287240, year = {2022}, author = {Knoblauch, H}, title = {[The Allgäu Turns into the Sahelzone - Climate Change-Related Symptoms in the Context of a Severe Depressive Episode with Psychotic Symptoms].}, journal = {Psychiatrische Praxis}, volume = {49}, number = {8}, pages = {440-443}, doi = {10.1055/a-1749-0989}, pmid = {35287240}, issn = {1439-0876}, mesh = {Male ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Climate Change ; Germany ; *Psychotic Disorders/diagnosis/therapy ; *Depressive Disorder ; }, abstract = {The climate crisis with its already obvious effects in many areas of life, e. g. heat waves, flood disasters, etc., is becoming increasingly important in its consequences for health, media presentation and public perception. Based on the fact that symptoms of mental illness are dependent on the interplay of socio-cultural and biographical factors in terms of their content, this casuistry describes the course of treatment of a 59-year-old man with a severe depressive episode and the delusional conviction that the landscape of the Allgäu will turn into a landscape like the Sahel due to the climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid35286599, year = {2022}, author = {Al-Delaimy, AK}, title = {The Prospective Effects of Climate Change on Neglected Tropical Diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: a Review.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {315-323}, pmid = {35286599}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Elephantiasis, Filarial/epidemiology ; Humans ; Leishmaniasis/epidemiology ; Mediterranean Region ; *Neglected Diseases/epidemiology ; Schistosomiasis/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {An increase in the annual daily temperature is documented and predicted to occur in the coming decades. Climate change has a direct effect and adverse impact on human health, as well as on multiple ecosystems and their species. The purpose of this paper is to review the effect of climate change on neglected tropical diseases including leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis, and lymphatic filariasis in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). A list of engine web searches was done; 280 full-text records were assessed for eligibility. Only 48 original records were included within the final selection for the review study. Most research results show an alteration of neglected diseases related to climate change influencing specifically the Eastern Mediterranean Region, in addition to the expectation of more effects at the level of vectors and reservoir whether its vector transmission route or its egg hatching and replication or even the survival of adult worms in the coming years. At the same time, not all articles related to the region interpret the direct or indirect effect of climate variations on these specific diseases. Although few studies were found describing some of climate change effects on neglected tropical diseases in the region, still, the region lacks research funding, technical, and mathematical model expertise regarding the direct effect of climate change on the ecosystems of these neglected tropical diseases.}, }
@article {pmid35286459, year = {2022}, author = {Ahlstrand, NI and Primack, RB and Tøttrup, AP}, title = {Correction to: A comparison of herbarium and citizen science phenology datasets for detecting response of flowering time to climate change in Denmark.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {5}, pages = {863}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-022-02272-8}, pmid = {35286459}, issn = {1432-1254}, }
@article {pmid35284042, year = {2022}, author = {Zembe, A and Nemakonde, LD and Chipangura, P}, title = {Policy coherence between food security, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in South Africa: A summative content analysis approach.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1173}, pmid = {35284042}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change through extreme weather events threatens food security (FS) and the eradication of poverty. Thus, improving FS will require adapting to the impacts of climate change as well as reducing the risks of disasters. However, the nexus between FS, disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) is not always reflected in policies, resulting in fragmented implementation. The purpose of this article is to evaluate if there is coherence in the policies for FS, DRR and CCA in South Africa. A qualitative research design was applied, and data were collected through a summative content analysis on 34 policy and legislative documents and 24 key informant interviews (KII). The study found that there are still incoherencies between the current main policy and legislative documents that address CCA, DRR and FS. This study recommends a review of old policy and legislative frameworks promulgated in the 1990s to incorporate cross-cutting issues such as DRR, CCA and FS. This will enhance and strengthen synergies and interconnections between the three policy areas.}, }
@article {pmid35283127, year = {2022}, author = {Hanson, MC and Petch, GM and Ottosen, TB and Skjøth, CA}, title = {Climate change impact on fungi in the atmospheric microbiome.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {830}, number = {}, pages = {154491}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154491}, pmid = {35283127}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Fungi ; Humans ; *Microbiota ; Spores, Fungal ; }, abstract = {The atmospheric microbiome is one of the least studied microbiomes of our planet. One of the most abundant, diverse and impactful parts of this microbiome is arguably fungal spores. They can be very potent outdoor aeroallergens and pathogens, causing an enormous socio-economic burden on health services and annual damages to crops costing billions of Euros. We find through hypothesis testing that an expected warmer and drier climate has a dramatic impact on the atmospheric microbiome, conceivably through alteration of the hydrological cycle impacting agricultural systems, with significant differences in leaf wetness between years (p-value <0.05). The data were measured via high-throughput sequencing analysis using the DNA barcode marker, ITS2. This was complemented by remote sensing analysis of land cover and dry matter productivity based on the Sentinel satellites, on-site detection of atmospheric and vegetation variables, GIS analysis, harvesting analysis and footprint modelling on trajectory clusters using the atmospheric transport model HYSPLIT. We find the seasonal spore composition varies between rural and urban zones reflecting both human activities (e.g. harvest), type and status of the vegetation and the prevailing climate rather than mesoscale atmospheric transport. We find that crop harvesting governs the composition of the atmospheric microbiome through a clear distinction between harvest and post-harvest beta-diversity by PERMANOVA on Bray-Curtis dissimilarity (p-value <0.05). Land cover impacted significantly by two-way ANOVA (p-value <0.05), while there was minimal impact from air mass transport over the 3 years. The hypothesis suggests that the fungal spore composition will change dramatically due to climate change, an until now unforeseen effect affecting both food security, human health and the atmospheric hydrological cycle. Consequently the management of crop diseases and impact on human health through aeroallergen exposure need to consider the timing of crop treatments and land management, including post harvest, to minimize exposure of aeroallergens and pathogens.}, }
@article {pmid35283123, year = {2022}, author = {Peluso, LM and Mateus, L and Penha, J and Bailly, D and Cassemiro, F and Suárez, Y and Fantin-Cruz, I and Kashiwaqui, E and Lemes, P}, title = {Climate change negative effects on the Neotropical fishery resources may be exacerbated by hydroelectric dams.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {828}, number = {}, pages = {154485}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154485}, pmid = {35283123}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Fishes ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Climate change is now recognized as a reality and along with human pressures such as river fragmentation by dams, amplifies the threats to freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity. In the Brazilian portion of the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB) that encompasses the Pantanal, one of the largest tropical wetlands in the world, in addition to the high biodiversity found there, fisheries are an important ecosystem service mostly supported by migratory fishes. We estimated the current range of migratory fish of commercial interest, also assessing the climate change effects predicted on the distribution patterns. Then, we assessed the effects of future climate on fish richness, and combining species ranges with routes blocked by artificial dams investigated possible impacts on fishery and food security in the UPRB. Climate change will induce range contraction between 47% and 100% for the species analyzed, and only four migratory fish may have suitable habitat until the end-of-century. The local richness will reduce about 85% in the basin. River fragmentation by dams acting together with climate change will prevent upstream shifts for most fish species. About 4% of present range and up to 45% of future range of migratory fish should be blocked by dams in UPRB. Consequently, this will also negatively affect fishery yield and food security in the future.}, }
@article {pmid35283121, year = {2022}, author = {Malerba, ME and Wright, N and Macreadie, PI}, title = {Australian farm dams are becoming less reliable water sources under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {829}, number = {}, pages = {154360}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154360}, pmid = {35283121}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Agriculture/methods ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Farms ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Worldwide food production is under ever-increasing demand. Meanwhile, climate change is disrupting rainfall and evaporation patterns, making agriculture freshwater supplies more uncertain. IPCC models predict an increased variability in rainfall and temperature over most of the globe under climate change. Yet, the effects of climate variability on water security remain poorly resolved. Here we used satellite images and deep-learning convolutional neural networks to analyse the impacts of annual averages, seasonality, climate anomaly, and temporal autocorrelation (or climate reddening) for rain and temperature on the water levels of >100,000 Australian farm dams across 55 years. We found that the risk of empty farm dams increased with warmer annual temperatures, lower yearly rainfall, stronger seasonality, reduced climate anomalies, and higher temporal autocorrelation. We used this information to develop a predictive model and estimate the likelihood of water limitations in farm dams between 1965 and 2050 using historical data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) at two climate change scenarios. Results showed that the frequency of empty water reserves has increased 2.5-fold since 1965 and will continue to increase across most (91%) of Australia. We estimated a 37% decline in rural areas with year-round water supplies between 1965 (457,076 km[2]) and 2050 (285,998 km[2]). Our continental-scale assessment documents complex temporal and spatial impacts of climate change on agricultural water security, with ramifications for society, economy, and the environment.}, }
@article {pmid35281122, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, A and Melton, AE and Soltis, DE and Soltis, PS}, title = {Potential distributional shifts in North America of allelopathic invasive plant species under climate change models.}, journal = {Plant diversity}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {11-19}, pmid = {35281122}, issn = {2468-2659}, abstract = {Predictive studies play a crucial role in the study of biological invasions of terrestrial plants under possible climate change scenarios. Invasive species are recognized for their ability to modify soil microbial communities and influence ecosystem dynamics. Here, we focused on six species of allelopathic flowering plants-Ailanthus altissima, Casuarina equisetifolia, Centaurea stoebe ssp. micranthos, Dioscorea bulbifera, Lantana camara, and Schinus terebinthifolia-that are invasive in North America and examined their potential to spread further during projected climate change. We used Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to predict future suitable areas for these species in North America under several proposed future climate models. ENMEval and Maxent were used to develop SDMs, estimate current distributions, and predict future areas of suitable climate for each species. Areas with the greatest predicted suitable climate in the future include the northeastern and the coastal northwestern regions of North America. Range size estimations demonstrate the possibility of extreme range loss for these invasives in the southeastern United States, while new areas may become suitable in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. These findings show an overall northward shift of suitable climate during the next few decades, given projected changes in temperature and precipitation. Our results can be utilized to analyze potential shifts in the distribution of these invasive species and may aid in the development of conservation and management plans to target and control dissemination in areas at higher risk for potential future invasion by these allelopathic species.}, }
@article {pmid35278561, year = {2022}, author = {Romaszko, J and Dragańska, E and Jalali, R and Cymes, I and Glińska-Lewczuk, K}, title = {Universal Climate Thermal Index as a prognostic tool in medical science in the context of climate change: A systematic review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {828}, number = {}, pages = {154492}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154492}, pmid = {35278561}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cold-Shock Response ; *Heat Stress Disorders ; Humans ; Meteorological Concepts ; Prognosis ; }, abstract = {The assessment of the impact of meteorological factors on the epidemiology of various diseases and on human pathophysiology and physiology requires a comprehensive approach and new tools independent of currently occurring climate change. The thermal comfort index, i.e., Universal Climate Thermal Index (UTCI), is gaining more and more recognition from researchers interested in such assessments. This index facilitates the evaluation of the impact of cold stress and heat stress on the human organism and the assessment of the incidence of weather-related diseases. This work aims at identifying those areas of medical science for which the UTCI was applied for scientific research as well as its popularization among clinicians, epidemiologists, and specialists in public health management. This is a systematic review of literature found in Pubmed, Sciencedirect and Web of Science databases from which, consistent with PRISMA guidelines, original papers employing the UTCI in studies related to health, physiological parameters, and epidemiologic applications were extracted. Out of the total number of 367 papers identified in the databases, 33 original works were included in the analysis. The selected publications were analyzed in terms of determining the areas of medical science in which the UTCI was applied. The majority of studies were devoted to the broadly understood mortality, cardiac events, and emergency medicine. A significant disproportion between publications discussing heat stress and those utilizing the UTCI for its assessment was revealed.}, }
@article {pmid35278392, year = {2022}, author = {Hwong, AR and Wang, M and Khan, H and Chagwedera, DN and Grzenda, A and Doty, B and Benton, T and Alpert, J and Clarke, D and Compton, WM}, title = {Climate change and mental health research methods, gaps, and priorities: a scoping review.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {e281-e291}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00012-2}, pmid = {35278392}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Mental Health ; Research Design ; *Suicide ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Research on climate change and mental health is a new but rapidly growing field. To summarise key advances and gaps in the current state of climate change and mental health studies, we conducted a scoping review that comprehensively examined research methodologies using large-scale datasets. We identified 56 eligible articles published in Embase, PubMed, PsycInfo, and Web of Science between Jan 1, 2000, and Aug 9, 2020. The primary data collection method used was surveys, which focused on self-reported mental health effects due to acute and subacute climate events. Other approaches used administrative health records to study the effect of environmental temperature on hospital admissions for mental health conditions, and national vital statistics to assess the relationship between environmental temperature and suicide rates with regression analyses. Our work highlights the need to link population-based mental health outcome databases to weather data for causal inference. Collaborations between mental health providers and data scientists can guide the formation of clinically relevant research questions on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35277746, year = {2022}, author = {Ramos, MC and Martínez de Toda, F}, title = {Influence of weather conditions and projected climate change scenarios on the suitability of Vitis vinifera cv. Carignan in Rioja DOCa, Spain.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {6}, pages = {1067-1078}, pmid = {35277746}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Spain ; *Vitis ; Water ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Grape development and its quality are highly dependent on soil and weather conditions. Under the progressive warming, which can affect the suitability of typical varieties grown in a given area, the knowledge of the vine response to changes in climate is essential to stablish strategies to maintain the viticulture sector. This research presents an analysis of phenology and grape composition of the Carignan cultivar, during a 13-year period, at two locations in Rioja DOCa. Based on the results obtained and the projected changes in climate under climate change scenarios (RC4.5 and RCP8.5), the response of this cultivar was evaluated. Differences in the phenological dates of up to 18, 29 and 40 days, for flowering, veraison and harvest, respectively, were observed between the warmest and the coolest years. An advance of up to 5, 8 and 11 days, respectively, for the mentioned stages, is projected under the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050, which could be near 1.5*times higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. These advances will be mainly driven by the temperatures recorded in the previous period. Grape acidity was mainly driven by water availability, in particular during ripening, which imply a slight projected reduction due to precipitation changes but not significant effect due to increasing temperatures. The phenolic composition could be positively affected by increasing temperatures and increasing water deficits, since this variety does not always reach a complete maturity at present. Thus, under the projected warming scenarios, the suitability of Carignan in Rioja DOCa was confirmed.}, }
@article {pmid35277550, year = {2022}, author = {Romitti, Y and Sue Wing, I}, title = {Heterogeneous climate change impacts on electricity demand in world cities circa mid-century.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {4280}, pmid = {35277550}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Air Conditioning ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Electricity ; *Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Rising ambient temperatures due to climate change will increase urban populations' exposures to extreme heat. During hot hours, a key protective adaptation is increased air conditioning and associated consumption of electricity for cooling. But during cold hours, milder temperatures have the offsetting effect of reducing consumption of electricity and other fuels for heating. We elucidate the net consequences of these opposing effects in 36 cities in different world regions. We couple reduced-form statistical models of cities' hourly responses of electric load to temperature with temporally downscaled projections of temperatures simulated by 21 global climate models (GCMs), projecting the effects of warming on the demand for electricity circa 2050. Cities' responses, temperature exposures and impacts are heterogeneous, with changes in total annual consumption ranging from [Formula: see text] to 5.7%, and peak power demand increasing by as much as 9.5% at the multi-GCM median. The largest increases are concentrated in more economically developed mid-latitude cities, with less developed urban areas in the tropics exhibiting relatively small changes. The results highlight the important role of the structure of electricity demand: large temperature increases in tropical cities are offset by their inelastic responses, which can be attributed to lower air-conditioning penetration.}, }
@article {pmid35276195, year = {2022}, author = {Pinsri, P and Shrestha, S and Kc, S and Mohanasundaram, S and Virdis, SGP and Nguyen, TPL and Chaowiwat, W}, title = {Assessing the future climate change, land use change, and abstraction impacts on groundwater resources in the Tak Special Economic Zone, Thailand.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {211}, number = {}, pages = {113026}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2022.113026}, pmid = {35276195}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Groundwater ; Thailand ; Urbanization ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Groundwater is an important source of water supply in the Tak Special Economic Zone of Thailand. However, groundwater is under stress from climate change, land use change, and an increase in abstraction, affecting the groundwater level and its sustainability. Therefore, this study analyses the impact of these combined stresses on groundwater resources in the near, mid, and far future. Three Global Climate Models are used to project the future climate under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. According to the results, both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to show similar increasing trends for both scenarios, with a rise of approximately 1 (1.5), 2 (3), and 3 (5) °C expected for SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) in each consecutive period. Annual rainfall is expected to continually increase in the future, with around 1500-1600 mm in rainfall (11ꟷ5.43% higher). Land use change is predicted for two scenarios: business as usual (BU) and rapid urbanisation (RU). The forest area is expected to increase to 30% (35%) coverage in 2090 for BU (RU) while agriculture is likely to reduce to 60% (50%) with the urban area increasing to 2.4% (7%). Water demand is predicted to increase in all future scenarios. The SWAT model is used to project recharge, which is likely to increase by 10-20% over time. The highest increase is predicted in the far future under SSP2 and RU scenarios. MODFLOW was used to project future groundwater resources, but due to the lack of consistent data, the time scale is reduced to yearly simulation. The results reveal that the groundwater level is expected to increase in the central part (urban area) of the study area and decrease along the boundary (agricultural area) of the aquifer. This research can aid policymakers and decision-makers in understanding the impact of multiple stressors and formulating adaptation strategies to manage groundwater resources in special economic zones.}, }
@article {pmid35276147, year = {2022}, author = {Mas, M and Flaquer, C and Puig-Montserrat, X and Porres, X and Rebelo, H and López-Baucells, A}, title = {Winter bat activity: The role of wetlands as food and drinking reservoirs under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {828}, number = {}, pages = {154403}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154403}, pmid = {35276147}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Chiroptera ; Climate Change ; *Hibernation ; Seasons ; Water ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Bat arousals during hibernation are related to rises in environmental temperature, body water loss and increasing body heat. Therefore, bats either hibernate in cold places or migrate to areas with mild winters to find water and insects to intake. During winter, insects are relatively abundant in wetlands with mild climates when low temperatures hamper insect activity in other places. However, the role of wetlands to sustain winter bat activity has never been fully assessed. To further understand bat behaviour during hibernation, we evaluated how the weather influenced hibernating bats, assessed the temperature threshold that increased bat arousals, and discussed how winter temperatures could affect bat activity under future climate change scenarios. The effects of weather and landscape composition on winter bat activity were assessed by acoustically sampling four different habitats (wetlands, rice paddies, urban areas and salt marshes) in the Ebro Delta (Spain). Our results show one of the highest winter bat foraging activities ever reported, with significantly higher activity in wetlands and urban areas. Most importantly, we found a substantial increase in bat activity triggered when nocturnal temperatures reached ca. 11 °C. By contrasting historical weather datasets, we show that, since the 1940s, there has been an increase by ca. 1.5 °C in winter maximum temperatures and a 180% increase in the number of nights with mean temperatures above 11 °C in the Ebro Delta. Temperature trends suggest that in 60-80 years, winter months will reach average temperatures of 11 °C (except maybe in January), which suggest a potential coming interruption or disappearance of bat hibernation in coastal Mediterranean habitats. This study highlights the significant role of wetlands in bat conservation under a climate change scenario as these humid areas represent one of the few remaining winter foraging habitats.}, }
@article {pmid35274797, year = {2022}, author = {Parr, CL and Bishop, TR}, title = {The response of ants to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {10}, pages = {3188-3205}, pmid = {35274797}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ants/physiology ; Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Phylogeny ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) are one of the most dominant terrestrial organisms worldwide. They are hugely abundant, both in terms of sheer numbers and biomass, on every continent except Antarctica and are deeply embedded within a diversity of ecological networks and processes. Ants are also eusocial and colonial organisms-their lifecycle is built on the labor of sterile worker ants who support a small number of reproductive individuals. Given the climatic changes that our planet faces, we need to understand how various important taxonomic groups will respond; this includes the ants. In this review, we synthesize the available literature to tackle this question. The answer is complicated. The ant literature has focused on temperature, and we broadly understand the ways in which thermal changes may affect ant colonies, populations, and communities. In general, we expect that species living in the Tropics, and in thermally variable microhabitats, such as the canopy and leaf litter environments, will be negatively impacted by rising temperatures. Species living in the temperate zones and those able to thermally buffer their nests in the soil or behaviorally avoid higher temperatures, however, are likely to be unaffected or may even benefit from a changed climate. How ants will respond to changes to other abiotic drivers associated with climate change is largely unknown, as is the detail on how altered ant populations and communities will ramify through their wider ecological networks. We discuss how eusociality may allow ants to adapt to, or tolerate, climate change in ways that solitary organisms cannot and we identify key geographic and phylogenetic hotspots of climate vulnerability and resistance. We finish by emphasizing the key research questions that we need to address moving forward so that we may fully appreciate how this critical insect group will respond to the ongoing climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid35274416, year = {2022}, author = {Haughan, AE and Pettorelli, N and Potts, SG and Senapathi, D}, title = {Determining the role of climate change in India's past forest loss.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {12}, pages = {3883-3901}, pmid = {35274416}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Forests ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Tropical forests in India have declined at an alarming rate over the past century, with extensive literature focusing on the high contributions of agricultural expansions to deforestation, while the effects of climate change have largely been overlooked. Climate change effects, such as increasing temperatures, drought and flooding, have already occurred, and are projected to worsen. Climate velocity, a metric that accounts for spatial heterogeneity in climate, can help identify contiguous areas under greater climate stress and potential climate refuges in addition to traditional temporal trends. Here, we examined the relative contribution of climate changes to forest loss in India during the period 2001-2018, at two spatial (regional and national) and two temporal (seasonal and annual) scales. This includes, for the first time, a characterization of climate velocity in the country. Our findings show that annual forest loss increased substantially over the 17-year period examined (2001-2018), with the majority of forest loss occurring in the Northeast region. Decreases in temporal trends of temperature and precipitation were most associated with forest losses, but there was large spatial and seasonal variation in the relationship. In every region except the Northeast, forest losses were correlated with faster velocities of at least one climate variable but overlapping areas of high velocities were rare. Our findings indicate that climate changes have played an important role in India's past forest loss, but likely remain secondary to other factors at present. We stress concern for climates velocities recorded in the country, reaching 97 km year[-1] , and highlight that understanding the different regional and seasonal relationships between climatic conditions and forest distributions will be key to effective protection of the country's remaining forests as climate change accelerates.}, }
@article {pmid35274205, year = {2022}, author = {Romshoo, SA and Murtaza, KO and Shah, W and Ramzan, T and Ameen, U and Bhat, MH}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change drives melting of glaciers in the Himalaya.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {35}, pages = {52732-52751}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-022-19524-0}, pmid = {35274205}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Pollutants ; *Ice Cover ; }, abstract = {The Himalayan glaciers provide water to a large population in south Asia for a variety of purposes and ecosystem services. As a result, regional monitoring of glacier melting and identification of the drivers are important for understanding and predicting future cryospheric melting trends. Using multi-date satellite images from 2000 to 2020, we investigated the shrinkage, snout retreat, thickness changes, mass loss and velocity changes of 77 glaciers in the Drass basin, western Himalaya, India. During this period, the total glacier cover has shrunk by 5.31 ± 0.33 km[2]. The snout retreat ranged from 30 to 430 m (mean 155 ± 9.58 m). Debris cover had a significant impact on glacier melting, with clean glaciers losing ~ 5% more than debris-covered glaciers (~ 2%). The average thickness change and mass loss of glacier have been - 1.27 ± 0.37 and - 1.08 ± 0.31 m w.e.a[-1], respectively. Because of the continuous melting and the consequent mass loss, average glacier velocity has reduced from 21.35 ± 3.3 m a[-1] in 2000 to 16.68 ± 1.9 m a[-1] by 2020. During the observation period, the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs), black carbon (BC) and other pollutants from vehicular traffic near the glaciers increased significantly. Increasing temperatures, caused by a significant increase in GHGs, black carbon and other pollutants in the atmosphere, are driving glacier melting in the study area. If the current trend continues in the future, the Himalayan glaciers may disappear entirely, having a significant impact on regional water supplies, hydrological processes, ecosystem services and transboundary water sharing.}, }
@article {pmid35274161, year = {2022}, author = {Shen, W and Shen, Z and Xue, S and Zhou, D}, title = {Population dynamics under climate change: persistence criterion and effects of fluctuations.}, journal = {Journal of mathematical biology}, volume = {84}, number = {4}, pages = {30}, pmid = {35274161}, issn = {1432-1416}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {The present paper is devoted to the investigation of population dynamics under climate change. The evolution of species is modelled by a reaction-diffusion equation in a spatio-temporally heterogeneous environment described by a climate envelope that shifts with a time-dependent speed function. For a general almost-periodic speed function, we establish the persistence criterion in terms of the sign of the approximate top Lyapunov exponent and, in the case of persistence, prove the existence of a unique forced wave solution that dominates the population profile of species in the long run. In the setting for studying the effects of fluctuations in the shifting speed or location of the climate envelope, we show by means of matched asymptotic expansions and numerical simulations that the approximate top Lyapunov exponent is a decreasing function with respect to the amplitude of fluctuations, yielding that fluctuations in the shifting speed or location have negative impacts on the persistence of species, and moreover, the larger the fluctuation is, the more adverse the effect is on the species. In addition, we assert that large fluctuations can always drive a species to extinction. Our numerical results also show that a persistent species under climate change is invulnerable to mild fluctuations, and becomes vulnerable when fluctuations are so large that the species is endangered. Finally, we show that fluctuations of amplitude less than or equal to the speed difference between the shifting speed and the critical speed are too weak to endanger a persistent species.}, }
@article {pmid35273334, year = {2022}, author = {Martinez Del Castillo, E and Zang, CS and Buras, A and Hacket-Pain, A and Esper, J and Serrano-Notivoli, R and Hartl, C and Weigel, R and Klesse, S and Resco de Dios, V and Scharnweber, T and Dorado-Liñán, I and van der Maaten-Theunissen, M and van der Maaten, E and Jump, A and Mikac, S and Banzragch, BE and Beck, W and Cavin, L and Claessens, H and Čada, V and Čufar, K and Dulamsuren, C and Gričar, J and Gil-Pelegrín, E and Janda, P and Kazimirovic, M and Kreyling, J and Latte, N and Leuschner, C and Longares, LA and Menzel, A and Merela, M and Motta, R and Muffler, L and Nola, P and Petritan, AM and Petritan, IC and Prislan, P and Rubio-Cuadrado, &#xc1; and Rydval, M and Stajić, B and Svoboda, M and Toromani, E and Trotsiuk, V and Wilmking, M and Zlatanov, T and de Luis, M}, title = {Climate-change-driven growth decline of European beech forests.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {163}, pmid = {35273334}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Fagus ; Forests ; Trees ; }, abstract = {The growth of past, present, and future forests was, is and will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes in growth of 5800 beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic and climatic range of species. Future growth trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art climate scenarios. The validated models indicate growth declines across large region of the distribution in recent decades, and project severe future growth declines ranging from -20% to more than -50% by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses are most striking towards the southern distribution limit of Fagus sylvatica, in regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems are expected to increase drought severity. The projected 21[st] century growth changes across Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate forest adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid35271335, year = {2022}, author = {Le Quéré, C and Mayot, N}, title = {Climate change and biospheric output.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {375}, number = {6585}, pages = {1091-1092}, doi = {10.1126/science.abo1262}, pmid = {35271335}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Large changes in global ecosystem productivity are set in motion by carbon dioxide rise.}, }
@article {pmid35270788, year = {2022}, author = {Kondrashin, AV and Morozova, LF and Stepanova, EV and Turbabina, NA and Maksimova, MS and Morozov, AE and Anikina, AS and Morozov, EN}, title = {Global Climate Change and Human Dirofilariasis in Russia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {35270788}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Culicidae ; *Dirofilaria immitis ; *Dirofilaria repens ; *Dirofilariasis/epidemiology ; Dogs ; Humans ; Mosquito Vectors ; }, abstract = {Human dirofilariasis is a vector-borne helminth disease caused by two species of Dirofilaria: D. repens and D. immitis. The vectors of the helminth are mosquitoes in the family Culicidae. The definitive hosts of Dirofilaria are dogs and, to a lesser extent, cats. Humans are accidental hosts. Dirofilariasis has been reported in the territory of Russia since 1915. Sporadic cases of the disease have been reported occasionally, but the number of cases showed a distinct increasing trend in the late 1980s-early 1990s, when the number of cases reached several hundred in the southern territories of Russia, with geographic coordinates of 43° N-45° N. A comparison of the timing of the global trend of climate warming during the 1990s with the temporal pattern of the incidence of dirofilariasis in the territory of Russia indicated a close association between the two phenomena. At present, the northern range of Dirofilaria includes latitudes higher than 58° in both the European and Asian parts of the country. The phenomenon of climate warming in the territory of Russia has shaped the contemporary epidemiology of the disease. The emerging public health problem of dirofilariasis in Russia warrants the establishment of a comprehensive epidemiological monitoring system.}, }
@article {pmid35270593, year = {2022}, author = {Sharpe, I and Davison, CM}, title = {A Scoping Review of Climate Change, Climate-Related Disasters, and Mental Disorders among Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {35270593}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {PJT-162463//CIHR/Canada ; PJT-165971//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Child ; Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Income ; *Mental Disorders/epidemiology ; *Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Children, particularly those living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), are highly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. Our main objective was to conduct a scoping literature review to determine how exposure to climate change and climate-related disasters influences the presence of mental disorders among children in LMICs. We also aimed to identify gaps in this area of scholarship. We included studies of children in LMICs that had a climate change or climate-related disaster exposure and mental disorder outcome. Twenty-three studies were included in the final synthesis. Fourteen studies were conducted in China, three in India, two each in Pakistan and the Philippines, and one each in Namibia and Dominica. All studies assessed the association between a climate-related disaster exposure and a mental disorder outcome, while none explored broader climate change-related exposures. Post-traumatic stress disorder (n = 21 studies) and depression (n = 8 studies) were the most common mental disorder outcomes. There was considerable between-study heterogeneity in terms of sample size, follow-up length, and outcome measurement. Overall, the literature in this area was sparse. Additional high-quality research is required to better understand the impacts of climate-related disasters and climate change on mental disorders within this population to ultimately inform future policies and interventions.}, }
@article {pmid35270140, year = {2022}, author = {Chen, K and Wang, B and Chen, C and Zhou, G}, title = {MaxEnt Modeling to Predict the Current and Future Distribution of Pomatosace filicula under Climate Change Scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {35270140}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2019YFC0507404//the National Key Research and Development Program pf China/ ; }, abstract = {As an important Tibetan medicine and a secondary protected plant in China, Pomatosace filicula is endemic to the country and is mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions might lead to the extinction of P. filicula. To understand the potential spatial distribution of P. filicula in future global warming scenarios, we used the MaxEnt model to simulate changes in its suitable habitat that would occur by 2050 and 2070 using four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and five global climate models. The results showed that the QTP currently contains a suitable habitat for P. filicula and will continue to do so in the future. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the suitable habitat area would increase by 2050 but shrink slightly by 2070, with an average reduction of 2.7%. However, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of unsuitable habitat would expand by an average of 54.65% and 68.20% by 2050 and 2070, respectively. The changes in the area of suitable habitat under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios were similar, with the unsuitable area increasing by approximately 20% by 2050 and 2070. Under these two moderate RCPs, the total suitable area in 2070 would be greater than that in 2050. The top three environmental factors impacting the habitat distribution were altitude, annual precipitation (BIO12) and annual temperature range (BIO7). The cumulative contribution rate of these three factors was as high as 82.8%, indicating that they were the key factors affecting the distribution and adaptability of P. filicula, P. filicula grows well in damp and cold environments. Due to global warming, the QTP will become warmer and drier; thus, the growing area of P. filicula will move toward higher elevations and areas that are humid and cold. These areas are mainly found near the Three-River Region. Future climate change will aggravate the deterioration of the P. filicula habitat and increase the species' survival risk. This study describes the distribution of P. filicula and provides a basis for the protection of endangered plants in the QTP.}, }
@article {pmid35268169, year = {2022}, author = {Ings, K and Denk, D}, title = {Avian Malaria in Penguins: Diagnostics and Future Direction in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {35268169}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {45973-19//University of Glasgow Vet Fund Small Grant Scheme/ ; }, abstract = {Avian malaria is caused by infection with haemoprotozoa of the genus Plasmodium. Infection is endemic in large parts of the world and is typically subclinical in birds that are native to these regions. Several penguin species have evolved in non-endemic regions without the selective pressure that these parasites exert and are highly susceptible to infection when transplanted to endemic regions, for example, in the context of zoological collections or rehabilitation centers. Avian malaria in penguins typically causes acute mortality without premonitory signs, or less commonly, nonspecific signs of morbidity, followed by mortality. Additionally, infection is reported in wild penguins, though the significance of these infections remains equivocal. As global temperatures continue to increase, avian malaria is likely to pose a continued and further threat to conservation efforts in captive environments. Intra vitam diagnosis currently relies on the evaluation of blood smears and molecular methods. The former is unreliable in penguins, as the acute clinical course typically does not allow the development of parasitemia. This absence of parasitemia also makes speciation challenging. Current molecular methods typically target the Cytochrome B or 18s subunit and have proven variably sensitive and specific. Reliable intra vitam diagnosis of avian malaria and further information about the causative agents at a species level would be very valuable in understanding the epidemiology and likely future course of avian malaria infection in penguins, and in particular, the implications avian malaria may have for conservation efforts. This paper provides an overview of malaria in penguins, discusses its changing impact on management and conservation, offers a summary of current diagnostics, and suggests future direction for the development of diagnostic tests. The latter will be key in understanding and managing this disease.}, }
@article {pmid35267745, year = {2022}, author = {Barrientos-Sanhueza, C and Cargnino-Cisternas, D and Díaz-Barrera, A and Cuneo, IF}, title = {Bacterial Alginate-Based Hydrogel Reduces Hydro-Mechanical Soil-Related Problems in Agriculture Facing Climate Change.}, journal = {Polymers}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {35267745}, issn = {2073-4360}, support = {11180102//Agencia Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n y Desarrollo/ ; 039.426/2020//VRIEA-PUCV/ ; }, abstract = {Agricultural systems are facing the negative impacts of erosion and water scarcity, directly impacting the hydro-mechanical behavior of soil aggregation. Several technologies have been proposed to reduce hydro-mechanical soil-related problems in agriculture. Biopolymer-based hydrogels have been reported to be a great tool to tackle these problems in soils. In this study, we investigated the hydro-mechanical behavior of different soils media treated with Ca-bacterial alginate hydrogel. We used an unconfined uniaxial compression test, aggregate stability test and hydraulic conductivity measurements to investigate the mechanical and hydraulic behavior of treated soils media. Our results from unconfined uniaxial compression test showed that yield stress (i.e., strength) increased in treated soils with higher kaolinite and water content (i.e., HCM3), compared with untreated coarse quartz sand (i.e., CM1). Furthermore, we found that temperature is an important factor in the gelation capacity of our hydrogel. At room temperature, HCM3 displayed the higher aggregate stability, almost 5.5-fold compared with treated coarse quartz sand (HCM1), while this differential response was not sustained at warm temperature. In general, the addition of different quantities of kaolinite decreased the saturated hydraulic conductivity for all treatments. Finally, bright field microscopy imaging represents the soil media matrix between sand and clay particles with Ca-bacterial alginate hydrogel that modify the hydro-mechanical behavior of different soils media. The results of this study could be helpful for the soil-related problems in agriculture facing the negative effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35267174, year = {2022}, author = {Stone, K and Blinn, N and Spencer, R}, title = {Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change on Women: a Scoping Review.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {228-243}, pmid = {35267174}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the largest threat to human health of the twenty-first century. Women are disproportionately affected by climate change. While the physical health impacts of climate change are an active area of research, works related to the mental health impacts are less developed. Furthermore, the mental health impacts of climate change on women are a particular area of interest due to women's disproportionately negative experiences with climate change and climate change-related events. Therefore, the purpose of this scoping review is to understand what is known from the existing literature regarding the mental health impacts of climate change on women. The methods for this review follow the Arksey and O'Malley framework for a scoping review. By searching databases for publications that discuss women, mental health, and climate change, and screening for relevant work, 20 studies that met inclusion criteria were included in the review. Themes derived from the reviewed studies include negative mental health outcomes, gender-based violence, burdens of care and responsibility, attachment to land and traditions, and the importance of intersectionality. From these findings, there is a clear need for climate policies on adaptation and mitigation to reflect women's unique needs to ensure their health and safety.}, }
@article {pmid35266412, year = {2022}, author = {Argent, G}, title = {Human-Animal Relationships and Welfare in the Anthropocene: Pandemics, Climate Change, and Other Disasters.}, journal = {Journal of applied animal welfare science : JAAWS}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {115-118}, doi = {10.1080/10888705.2022.2042299}, pmid = {35266412}, issn = {1532-7604}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; }, abstract = {This introduction to the Special Issue "Human-Animal Relationships and Welfare in the Anthropocene: Pandemics, Climate Change, and Other Disasters" provides the reasons for creating the Special Issue, its aims and scope, background on the subject area, and an introduction to the papers within it. I also offer suggestions for future research aimed at including in animal welfare studies the consideration of the actual and potential effects of the climate crisis and other environmental concerns on animal welfare.}, }
@article {pmid35266045, year = {2022}, author = {Darbyshire, RO and Johnson, SB and Anwar, MR and Ataollahi, F and Burch, D and Champion, C and Coleman, MA and Lawson, J and McDonald, SE and Miller, M and Mo, J and Timms, M and Sun, D and Wang, B and Pardoe, J}, title = {Climate change and Australia's primary industries: factors hampering an effective and coordinated response.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {6}, pages = {1045-1056}, pmid = {35266045}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Australia's primary production sector operates in one of the world's most variable climates with future climate change posing a challenge to its ongoing sustainability. Recognising this, Australia has invested in understanding climate change risks to primary production with a substantial amount of research produced. Recently, focus on this research space has broadened, with interests from the financial sector and expanded scopes of works from government and industry. These expanded needs require sector- and country-wide assessments to assist with the implementation of climate strategies. We considered the applicability of the current research body for these needs by reviewing 188 peer-reviewed studies that considered the quantitative impacts of climate change on Australia's primary industries. Our broad review includes cropping, livestock, horticulture, forestry and fisheries and biosecurity threats. This is the first such review for Australia, and no other similar country-wide review was found. We reviewed the studies through three lenses, industry diversity, geographic coverage and study comparability. Our results show that all three areas are lacking for sector- and country-wide assessments. Industry diversity was skewed towards cropping and biosecurity threats (64% of all studies) with wheat in particular a major focus (25% of all studies). Geographic coverage at a state level appeared to be evenly distributed across the country; however, when considered in conjunction with industry focus, gaps emerged. Study comparability was found to be very limited due to the use of different historical baseline periods and different impact models. We make several recommendations to assist with future research directions, being (1) co-development of a standard set of method guidelines for impact assessments, (2) filling industry and geographic knowledge gaps, and (3) improving transparency in study method descriptions. Uptake of these recommendations will improve study application and transparency enabling and enhancing responses to climate change in Australia's primary industries.}, }
@article {pmid35265337, year = {2022}, author = {Sun, Y and Zhang, X and Ding, Y and Chen, D and Qin, D and Zhai, P}, title = {Understanding human influence on climate change in China.}, journal = {National science review}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {nwab113}, pmid = {35265337}, issn = {2053-714X}, abstract = {China's climate has been warming since the 1950s, with surface air temperature increasing at a rate higher than the global average. Changes in climate have exerted substantial impacts on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems and human health. Attributing past changes to causes provides a scientific foundation for national and international climate policies. Here, we review recent progress in attributing the observed climate changes over past decades in China. Anthropogenic forcings, dominated by greenhouse gas emissions, are the main drivers for observed increases in mean and extreme temperatures. Evidence of the effect of anthropogenic forcings on precipitation is emerging. Human influence has increased the probability of extreme heat events, and has likely changed the occurrence probabilities for some heavy precipitation events. The way a specific attribution question is posed and the conditions under which the question is addressed present persistent challenges for appropriately communicating attribution results to non-specialists.}, }
@article {pmid35264715, year = {2022}, author = {Moradmand, M and Yousefi, M}, title = {Ecological niche modelling and climate change in two species groups of huntsman spider genus Eusparassus in the Western Palearctic.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {4138}, pmid = {35264715}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Phylogeny ; *Spiders ; }, abstract = {The huntsman spiders' genus Eusparassus are apex arthropod predators in desert ecosystems of the Afrotropical and Palearctic ecoregions. The Eusparassus dufouri and E. walckenaeri clades are two distinct taxonomic, phylogenetic, and geographic units concerning morphology, molecular phylogeny, and spatial data; but little is known about their ecological niche. We applied the maximum-entropy approach and modelled ecologic niches of these two phylogenetically closely related clades. Ecological niches of the two clades were compared using identity and background tests and two different metrics, the Schooner's D and Warren's I. We also predicted the impacts of climate change on the distribution of the two clades. The results of the identity test showed that the ecological niches of the two clades were different in geographic space but were similar in environmental space. While results of the background test revealed that the ecological niches of the two clades were similar in geographic and environmental space. This indicated that "niche conservatism" had an important role over the evolutionary time of allopatric diversification. However, the normalized difference vegetation index vs. topographic heterogeneity had influenced the niches of the dufouri and walckenaeri clades, respectively. The analyses recovered that the two clades' climatically suitable habitats will increase under future climate (the year 2070). However, since the two clades are characterized by the narrow range of environmental optimum and the accordingly high limits of tolerance, they are vulnerable to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35264569, year = {2022}, author = {Wunsch, A and Liesch, T and Broda, S}, title = {Deep learning shows declining groundwater levels in Germany until 2100 due to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1221}, pmid = {35264569}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Deep Learning ; Germany ; *Groundwater ; }, abstract = {In this study we investigate how climate change will directly influence the groundwater resources in Germany during the 21[st] century. We apply a machine learning groundwater level prediction approach based on convolutional neural networks to 118 sites well distributed over Germany to assess the groundwater level development under different RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 8.5). We consider only direct meteorological inputs, while highly uncertain anthropogenic factors such as groundwater extractions are excluded. While less pronounced and fewer significant trends can be found under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, we detect significantly declining trends of groundwater levels for most of the sites under RCP8.5, revealing a spatial pattern of stronger decreases, especially in the northern and eastern part of Germany, emphasizing already existing decreasing trends in these regions. We can further show an increased variability and longer periods of low groundwater levels during the annual cycle towards the end of the century.}, }
@article {pmid35262801, year = {2022}, author = {Jinger, D and Kumar, R and Kakade, V and Dinesh, D and Singh, G and Pande, VC and Bhatnagar, PR and Rao, BK and Vishwakarma, AK and Kumar, D and Singhal, V}, title = {Agroforestry for controlling soil erosion and enhancing system productivity in ravine lands of Western India under climate change scenario.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {4}, pages = {267}, pmid = {35262801}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Soil ; Soil Erosion ; }, abstract = {Soil erosion in semi-arid climate leading to the development of ravine lands is the most severe form of land degradation. Ravine lands are formed when soil is not fully covered by the vegetation throughout the year and sporadic vegetation is not able to bind the soil particles from being washed away by rainfall. Throughout the globe, ravine lands have severe limitations for their rehabilitation and sustainable utilization as a consequence of its unique topographical features. Climatic and edaphic stresses make crop production extremely challenging in these lands. Practicing sole cropping promotes erosion, produces low crop yield, utilizes high energy, and emits greenhouse gasses (GHGs). Tree cultivation either sole or in combination with crops (agroforestry) has a strong potential to control erosion, produce sustainable economic yield, reduce energy consumption, and sequester greater amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide in biomass and soil carbon pools besides providing various ecosystem services. Therefore, practicing agroforestry could be a promising approach to obtain the greater environmental and economic benefits in the ravine lands. The present study was conducted on three systems, i.e., sole crop cultivation (cowpea + castor), agroforestry (sapota + cowpea + castor), and sole sapota plantation, to evaluate their impact on soil erosion, runoff, system productivity, profitability, energetics, and carbon sequestration during the 4-year period (2017-2020). The results revealed that agroforestry reduced the total soil loss and runoff by 37.7% and 19.1%, respectively, compared to the sole crop cultivation. Likewise, the highest system productivity as cowpea equivalent yield (CEY) was obtained under agroforestry system that increased the CEY by 162% and 81.9%, compared to sole crop and sole tree plantation, respectively. The climate change mitigation potential in terms of net carbon balance was observed highest in sole tree plantation (8.4 t/ha) followed by agroforestry system (5.9 t/ha) and lowest in sole cropping system (-2.8 t/ha). Therefore, an agroforestry system could be recommended for controlling soil erosion, improving system productivity and profitability, and reducing energy consumption as well as mitigating climate change in ravine lands.}, }
@article {pmid35261489, year = {2022}, author = {Beranek, CT and Sanders, S and Clulow, J and Mahony, M}, title = {Factors influencing persistence of a threatened amphibian in restored wetlands despite severe population decline during climate change driven weather extremes.}, journal = {Biodiversity and conservation}, volume = {31}, number = {4}, pages = {1267-1287}, pmid = {35261489}, issn = {0960-3115}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Biodiversity is in global decline during the Anthropocene. Declines have been caused by multiple factors, such as habitat removal, invasive species, and disease, which are often targets for conservation management. However, conservation interventions are under threat from climate change induced weather extremes. Weather extremes are becoming more frequent and devastating and an example of this was the 2019/2020 Australian drought and mega-fires. We provide a case study the impacts of these extreme weather events had on a population of the threatened frog Litoria aurea that occurs in a constructed habitat which was designed to reduce the impact of introduced fish and chytrid-induced disease. We aimed to determine what factors influenced persistence so that the design of wetlands can be further optimised to future-proof threatened amphibians. We achieved this with 4 years (2016-2020) of intensive capture-recapture surveys during austral spring and summer across nine wetlands (n = 94 repeat surveys). As hypothesized, drought caused a sharp reduction in population size, but persistence was achieved. The most parsimonious predictor of survival was an interaction between maximum air temperature and rainfall, indicating that weather extremes likely caused the decline. Survival was positively correlated with wetland vegetation coverage, positing this is an important feature to target to enhance resilience in wetland restoration programs. Additionally, the benefits obtained from measures to reduce chytrid prevalence were not compromised during drought, as there was a positive correlation between salinity and survival. We emphasize that many species may not be able to persist under worse extreme weather scenarios. Despite the potential for habitat augmentation to buffer effects of extreme weather, global action on climate change is needed to reduce extinction risk.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10531-022-02387-9.}, }
@article {pmid35261483, year = {2022}, author = {Nation, MT and Feldman, A}, title = {Climate Change and Political Controversy in the Science Classroom: How Teachers' Beliefs Influence Instruction.}, journal = {Science &amp; education}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {1567-1583}, pmid = {35261483}, issn = {0926-7220}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change science is complex and perceived to be controversial in nature by some stakeholders. Yet from the perspective of educators and policy makers, climate change science is an important topic to be taught in secondary science education. The presence of controversy can influence teachers' instructional decisions and cause confusion about the science of climate change. This study examines the complex nature between science teacher beliefs and the impact on their instructional practices of climate change-centered curriculum. Findings from the study suggest teachers have strong beliefs about the causes and implications of climate change. However, due to the controversial nature of the topic, the current US political climate, and fear of resistance from stakeholders, teachers did not espouse these beliefs within their instruction of the curriculum and instead remained "neutral" when teaching about climate change.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11191-022-00330-6.}, }
@article {pmid35260915, year = {2022}, author = {Abubakar, A and Ishak, MY and Makmom, AA}, title = {Nexus between climate change and oil palm production in Malaysia: a review.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {4}, pages = {262}, pmid = {35260915}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {TETF/ES/UNIV/JIGAWA STATE/TSAS/2019//Tertiary Education Trust Fund/ ; }, mesh = {*Arecaceae ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Malaysia ; Palm Oil ; }, abstract = {Climate change is believed to be caused by natural processes such as volcanic eruptions, which release ash into the atmosphere, and anthropogenic activities that increase the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), which trap energy and cause intense warming. This article conducts a comprehensive review of existing literature relating to climate change and its impact on oil palm production in Malaysia. To enable analysis, articles were arranged, sorted, and categorized into various themes and associations based on the title of the article, abstract, and later the content. The findings reveal that climate change causes variability in the intensity and duration of rainfall, which ultimately affects the production of oil palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB) and the quality of crude palm oil (CPO). The decline in FFB increased the price of crude palm oil. The impacts of climate change on oil palm vary and are felt differently in different regions. Climate change increases the vulnerability and exposure of oil palms to various diseases, exposes them to water stress, and disrupts metabolic activities. The surface temperature in Malaysia is anticipated to rise by 1.5 to 2 °C, worsening the adaptation plans. Oil palm growers explore possible ways to adapt to and withstand the impacts of climate change by adopting the use of an improved variety of oil palm seedlings, soil management and fertility preservation, silt pit, mulching, intercropping, livelihood diversification, buying insurance, and best water conservation practices.}, }
@article {pmid35260727, year = {2022}, author = {Kamali, B and Lorite, IJ and Webber, HA and Rezaei, EE and Gabaldon-Leal, C and Nendel, C and Siebert, S and Ramirez-Cuesta, JM and Ewert, F and Ojeda, JJ}, title = {Uncertainty in climate change impact studies for irrigated maize cropping systems in southern Spain.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {4049}, pmid = {35260727}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Spain ; Uncertainty ; Water ; *Zea mays/physiology ; }, abstract = {This study investigates the main drivers of uncertainties in simulated irrigated maize yield under historical conditions as well as scenarios of increased temperatures and altered irrigation water availability. Using APSIM, MONICA, and SIMPLACE crop models, we quantified the relative contributions of three irrigation water allocation strategies, three sowing dates, and three maize cultivars to the uncertainty in simulated yields. The water allocation strategies were derived from historical records of farmer's allocation patterns in drip-irrigation scheme of the Genil-Cabra region, Spain (2014-2017). By considering combinations of allocation strategies, the adjusted R[2] values (showing the degree of agreement between simulated and observed yields) increased by 29% compared to unrealistic assumptions of considering only near optimal or deficit irrigation scheduling. The factor decomposition analysis based on historic climate showed that irrigation strategies was the main driver of uncertainty in simulated yields (66%). However, under temperature increase scenarios, the contribution of crop model and cultivar choice to uncertainty in simulated yields were as important as irrigation strategy. This was partially due to different model structure in processes related to the temperature responses. Our study calls for including information on irrigation strategies conducted by farmers to reduce the uncertainty in simulated yields at field scale.}, }
@article {pmid35260561, year = {2022}, author = {Senande-Rivera, M and Insua-Costa, D and Miguez-Macho, G}, title = {Spatial and temporal expansion of global wildland fire activity in response to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1208}, pmid = {35260561}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Fires ; Global Warming ; Seasons ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity, but the magnitude and location of change is still unclear. Here, we show that climate largely determines present fire-prone regions and their fire season. We categorize these regions according to the climatic characteristics of their fire season into four classes, within general Boreal, Temperate, Tropical and Arid climate zones. Based on climate model projections, we assess the modification of the fire-prone regions in extent and fire season length at the end of the 21st century. We find that due to global warming, the global area with frequent fire-prone conditions would increase by 29%, mostly in Boreal (+111%) and Temperate (+25%) zones, where there may also be a significant lengthening of the potential fire season. Our estimates of the global expansion of fire-prone areas highlight the large but uneven impact of a warming climate on Earth's environment.}, }
@article {pmid35259989, year = {2022}, author = {Navarrete, SA and Barahona, M and Weidberg, N and Broitman, BR}, title = {Climate change in the coastal ocean: shifts in pelagic productivity and regionally diverging dynamics of coastal ecosystems.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {289}, number = {1970}, pages = {20212772}, pmid = {35259989}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton ; }, abstract = {Climate change has led to intensification and poleward migration of the Southeastern Pacific Anticyclone, forcing diverging regions of increasing, equatorward and decreasing, poleward coastal phytoplankton productivity along the Humboldt Upwelling Ecosystem, and a transition zone around 31° S. Using a 20-year dataset of barnacle larval recruitment and adult abundances, we show that striking increases in larval arrival have occurred since 1999 in the region of higher productivity, while slower but significantly negative trends dominate poleward of 30° S, where years of recruitment failure are now common. Rapid increases in benthic adults result from fast recruitment-stock feedbacks following increased recruitment. Slower population declines in the decreased productivity region may result from aging but still reproducing adults that provide temporary insurance against population collapses. Thus, in this region of the ocean where surface waters have been cooling down, climate change is transforming coastal pelagic and benthic ecosystems through altering primary productivity, which seems to propagate up the food web at rates modulated by stock-recruitment feedbacks and storage effects. Slower effects of downward productivity warn us that poleward stocks may be closer to collapse than current abundances may suggest.}, }
@article {pmid35259988, year = {2022}, author = {Gutiérrez, JS and Moore, JN and Donnelly, JP and Dorador, C and Navedo, JG and Senner, NR}, title = {Climate change and lithium mining influence flamingo abundance in the Lithium Triangle.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {289}, number = {1970}, pages = {20212388}, pmid = {35259988}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Lithium ; Water ; }, abstract = {The development of technologies to slow climate change has been identified as a global imperative. Nonetheless, such 'green' technologies can potentially have negative impacts on biodiversity. We explored how climate change and the mining of lithium for green technologies influence surface water availability, primary productivity and the abundance of three threatened and economically important flamingo species in the 'Lithium Triangle' of the Chilean Andes. We combined climate and primary productivity data with remotely sensed measures of surface water levels and a 30-year dataset on flamingo abundance using structural equation modelling. We found that, regionally, flamingo abundance fluctuated dramatically from year-to-year in response to variation in surface water levels and primary productivity but did not exhibit any temporal trends. Locally, in the Salar de Atacama-where lithium mining is focused-we found that mining was negatively correlated with the abundance of two of the three flamingo species. These results suggest continued increases in lithium mining and declines in surface water could soon have dramatic effects on flamingo abundance across their range. Efforts to slow the expansion of mining and the impacts of climate change are, therefore, urgently needed to benefit local biodiversity and the local human economy that depends on it.}, }
@article {pmid35259643, year = {2022}, author = {Meerhoff, E and Combes, V and Matano, R and Barrier, N and Franco, B and Piola, A and Hernández-Vaca, F and Defeo, O}, title = {Large-scale connectivity of the sandy beach clam Mesodesma mactroides along the Atlantic coast of South America, and climate change implications.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {176}, number = {}, pages = {105591}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105591}, pmid = {35259643}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; *Climate Change ; Fresh Water ; Larva ; Salinity ; South America ; }, abstract = {The yellow clam Mesodesma mactroides is a cool-water species that typifies sandy beaches of the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SAO), which embraces one of the strongest ocean warming hotspots. The region is influenced by the Rio de la Plata (RdlP), which represents a zoogeographic barrier that restricts its larval exchange. We investigated yellow clam larval connectivity patterns using an individual based model (IBM). The IBM combined outputs from a 3D hydrodynamic model with a clam submodel that considered salinity- and temperature-dependent mortality for the planktonic larvae. Connectivity across the RdlP estuary occurred only for larvae released in spring during a strong La Niña event. Mortality due to freshwater precluded larval transport across the RdlP, whereas larval mortality induced by warmer waters reduced connectivity, leading to self-recruitment in most areas. Warming acceleration in this hotspot could further restrict larval connectivity between populations in the SAO, with conservation implications for this threatened species.}, }
@article {pmid35257968, year = {2022}, author = {Buckley, LB}, title = {Temperature-sensitive development shapes insect phenological responses to climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {52}, number = {}, pages = {100897}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2022.100897}, pmid = {35257968}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Insecta ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Phenological shifts vary within and among insect species and locations based on exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Shifts in environmental conditions and seasonal constraints along elevation and latitudinal gradients can select for differences in temperature sensitivity that generate differential phenological shifts. I examine the phenological implications of observed variation in developmental traits. Coupling physiological and ecological insight to link the environmental sensitivity of development to phenology and fitness offers promise in understanding variable phenological responses to climate change and their community and ecosystem implications. A key challenge in establishing these linkages is extrapolating controlled, laboratory experiments to temporally variable, natural environments. New lab and field experiments that incorporate realistic environmental variation are needed to test the extrapolations. Establishing the linkages can aid understanding and anticipating impacts of climate change on insects.}, }
@article {pmid35257770, year = {2022}, author = {Jiang, S and Chen, X and Huang, R and Wang, T and Smettem, K}, title = {Effect of the altitudinal climate change on growing season length for deciduous broadleaved forest in southwest China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {828}, number = {}, pages = {154306}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154306}, pmid = {35257770}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The altitudinal changes of plant phenology in response to climate change remain poorly understood in subtropical mountain areas. Using the satellite phenology and climate dataset (temperature, precipitation and solar radiation) from 2001 to 2016 in southwest China, we analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of climate and phenological characteristics of the growing season length (LOS), start of the growing season (SOS) and end of the growing season (EOS) for the deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF). Results show that LOS was shortened by 25 and 15.2 days/km rise in elevation, respectively, using two regression methods based on "Hopkins' bioclimatic law" (expressing LOS as a function of altitude, latitude and longitude) and altitudinal mean annual LOS. The majority of the shortened LOS towards high elevations was attributed to the postponed SOS and the advanced EOS as the elevation is higher and lower than 2.2-2.3 km, respectively. The recent climate warming has significantly prolonged LOS in the entire DBF area. This increase in LOS differs with altitude due to altitudinal heterogeneity of climate change. In the cold high mountain environment, changes of phenological parameters are more sensitive to climate warming, characterized by a significantly advanced SOS, postponed EOS and prolonged LOS driven by spring and autumn warming. In the warm environment of the low elevation areas, changes of phenological parameters are relatively smaller even though the temperature rise is greater than that in the cold high mountains. Furthermore, winter wetting can significantly weaken the advanced SOS and prolonged LOS at lower elevations in the warm south, but winter drying and declining solar radiation in spring can enhance the advanced SOS and prolonged LOS at the extremely high elevations in the cold north. These results highlight the critical need to include altitudinal heterogeneity when assessing phenological changes from remote sensing platforms.}, }
@article {pmid35257754, year = {2022}, author = {Canatoy, RC and Cho, SR and Ok, YS and Jeong, ST and Kim, PJ}, title = {Critical evaluation of biochar utilization effect on mitigating global warming in whole rice cropping boundary.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {827}, number = {}, pages = {154344}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154344}, pmid = {35257754}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Charcoal ; Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Manure ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Oryza ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Biochar and compost were accepted as a stable organic amendment to increase soil C stock as well as to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in rice paddy soils. However, in most studies, their effect on GHG flux was evaluated only within the cropping boundary without considering industrial processes. To compare the net effect of these organic amendment utilizations on global warming within the whole rice cropping system boundary from industrial process to cropping, fresh, compost, and biochar manures were applied at a rate of 12 Mg ha[-1] (dry weight) in a rice paddy, and total GHG fluxes were evaluated. Compared with fresh manure, compost utilization decreased net global warming potential (GWP) which summated GHG fluxes and soil C stock change with CO2 equivalent by 43% within rice cropping boundary, via a 25% decrease of CH4 flux and 39% increase of soil C stock. However, 34 Mg CO2-eq. of GHGs were additionally emitted during composting to make 12 Mg of compost and then increased the net GWP by 34% within the whole system boundary. In comparison, biochar changed paddy soil into a GHG sink, via 56% decrease of CH4 flux and 13% increase of soil C stock. However, pyrolysis emitted a total of 0.08 and 19 Mg CO2-eq. of GHGs under with and without syngas recycling system, respectively, to make 12 Mg of biochar. As a result, biochar utilization decreased net GWP by approximately 28-70% over fresh manure within the whole system boundary. Rice grain productivity was not discriminated between biochar and compost manures, but compost considerably increased grain yield over fresh manure. Consequently, biochar utilization significantly decreased GHG intensity which indicates net GWP per grain by 33-72% over fresh manure, but compost increased by 22%. In conclusion, biochar could be a sustainable organic amendment to mitigate GHG emission impact in the rice paddy, but compost should be carefully selected.}, }
@article {pmid35257239, year = {2022}, author = {Mansouri, M and Safavi, HR and Rezaei, F}, title = {An improved MOPSO algorithm for multi-objective optimization of reservoir operation under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {4}, pages = {261}, pmid = {35257239}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Water ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Gradually, the previously proposed water resource management schemes and reservoir operating policies adjusted to the historically experienced climatic conditions are losing their validity and efficacy, urging building up the models compatible with the likely climatic change conditions at the future. This paper aims at optimizing the reservoir operation under climate change conditions targeting the objectives including (1) minimizing the shortages in meeting the reservoir downstream water demands and (2) maximizing the sustainability of the reservoir storage. For evaluating the effects of the climate change, six general circulation models (GCMs) built up under the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) emission scenario are adopted and utilized to predict the climate variables over a 30-year planning period. To solve this problem, an improved version of our recently proposed fuzzy multi-objective particle swarm optimization (f-MOPSO) algorithm, named f-MOPSO-II, is proposed. The f-MOPSO takes a novel approach to handle multi-objective nature of the optimization problems. In this approach, the common concept of "diversity" is replaced with "extremity," to choose the better guides of the search agents in the algorithm. The f-MOPSO-II is based on the f-MOPSO. However, it is aimed at simultaneously mitigating the f-MOPSO computational complexity and enhancing the quality of the final results presented by this algorithm. The results obtained by the f-MOPSO-II were then compared with those yielded by the popular non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). As the results suggest, the f-MOPSO-II is capable of simultaneously meeting the water demands and holding the reservoir storage sustainable, much better than the NSGA-II.}, }
@article {pmid35257171, year = {2022}, author = {Iyer, Y and Moorthy, S and Al-Kindi, S and Rajagopalan, S}, title = {Climate change and healthcare organizations: a call to arms.}, journal = {European heart journal}, volume = {43}, number = {26}, pages = {2435-2437}, pmid = {35257171}, issn = {1522-9645}, support = {R01 ES019616/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R35 ES031702/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Humans ; *Organizations ; Research ; }, }
@article {pmid35253906, year = {2022}, author = {Wood, WW and Macumber, PG}, title = {Altithermal Climate Change and Groundwater Development.}, journal = {Ground water}, volume = {60}, number = {3}, pages = {451-453}, doi = {10.1111/gwat.13191}, pmid = {35253906}, issn = {1745-6584}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Groundwater ; }, }
@article {pmid35252617, year = {2022}, author = {Wouyou, HG and Lokonon, BE and Idohou, R and Zossou-Akete, AG and Assogbadjo, AE and Glèlè Kakaï, R}, title = {Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered Caesalpinia bonduc (L.) Roxb in Benin (West Africa).}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {e09022}, pmid = {35252617}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Caesalpinia bonduc (L.) Roxb is a medicinal plant with high therapeutic values but declared extinct in the wild in Benin. This study explored the potential distribution and climatic suitability of the species under the present-day and future conditions in Benin, based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) at the 2055-time horizon. The occurrence data were recorded in the distribution area of the species in Benin. These data were supplemented with those from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF, www.gbif.org) website and the literature. A total of 23 environmental variables (15 bioclimatic data and 8 biophysical data) were used. The Bioclimatic variables for temperature and humidity were downloaded from Africlim site at 1 km resolution. The biophysical variables concern population, elevation, slope, landcover, wetland, distance to river, soil and distance to dwellings data that are downloaded respectively from DIVA-GIS, ISRIC and SEDAC website at different resolution. A correlation test has been applied to eliminate the highly correlated variables (r ≥ 0.9) using Pearson correlation coefficient. Species distribution modelling data were processed using five algorithms namely Random Forest (RF), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), Maximum entropy (MAXENT), Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Generalized Additive Models (GAM). The results showed that all models performed well with the area under the curve (AUC) values greater than 0.9. The RF, GLM, and GAM models predicted an increase in the suitable areas for the cultivation of the species. BRT and MaxEnt showed a substantial decrease in the suitable areas based on the two scenarios but this reduction is more observed with the MaxEnt model. These results show that climate change and human pressures will have significant effects on the distribution of C. bonduc throughout Benin. Sustainable management measures are necessary for C. bonduc and should be integrated in development policies to preserve the population of the species from total extinction in Benin.}, }
@article {pmid35251130, year = {2022}, author = {Guarino, F and Cicatelli, A and Castiglione, S and Agius, DR and Orhun, GE and Fragkostefanakis, S and Leclercq, J and Dobránszki, J and Kaiserli, E and Lieberman-Lazarovich, M and Sõmera, M and Sarmiento, C and Vettori, C and Paffetti, D and Poma, AMG and Moschou, PN and Gašparović, M and Yousefi, S and Vergata, C and Berger, MMJ and Gallusci, P and Miladinović, D and Martinelli, F}, title = {An Epigenetic Alphabet of Crop Adaptation to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in genetics}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {818727}, pmid = {35251130}, issn = {1664-8021}, abstract = {Crop adaptation to climate change is in a part attributed to epigenetic mechanisms which are related to response to abiotic and biotic stresses. Although recent studies increased our knowledge on the nature of these mechanisms, epigenetics remains under-investigated and still poorly understood in many, especially non-model, plants, Epigenetic modifications are traditionally divided into two main groups, DNA methylation and histone modifications that lead to chromatin remodeling and the regulation of genome functioning. In this review, we outline the most recent and interesting findings on crop epigenetic responses to the environmental cues that are most relevant to climate change. In addition, we discuss a speculative point of view, in which we try to decipher the "epigenetic alphabet" that underlies crop adaptation mechanisms to climate change. The understanding of these mechanisms will pave the way to new strategies to design and implement the next generation of cultivars with a broad range of tolerance/resistance to stresses as well as balanced agronomic traits, with a limited loss of (epi)genetic variability.}, }
@article {pmid35250241, year = {2022}, author = {Schwartz, SEO and Benoit, L and Clayton, S and Parnes, MF and Swenson, L and Lowe, SR}, title = {Climate change anxiety and mental health: Environmental activism as buffer.}, journal = {Current psychology (New Brunswick, N.J.)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, pmid = {35250241}, issn = {1046-1310}, abstract = {A growing body of research has documented the phenomenon of climate change anxiety (CCA), defined broadly as negative cognitive, emotional, and behavioral responses associated with concerns about climate change. A recently validated scale of CCA indicated two subscales: cognitive emotional impairment and functional impairment (Clayton &amp; Karazsia, 2020). However, there are few empirical studies on CCA to date and little evidence regarding whether CCA is associated with psychiatric symptoms, including symptoms of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD), and whether engaging in individual and collective action to address climate change could buffer such relationships. This mixed methods study draws on data collected from a sample of emerging adult students (ages 18-35) in the United States (N = 284) to address these gaps. Results indicated that both CCA subscales were significantly associated with GAD symptoms, while only the Functional Impairment subscale was associated with higher MDD symptoms. Moreover, engaging in collective action, but not individual action, significantly attenuated the association between CCA cognitive emotional impairment and MDD symptoms. Responses to open-ended questions asking about participants' worries and actions related to climate change indicated the severity of their worries and, for some, a perception of the insignificance of their actions relative to the enormity of climate change. These results further the field's understanding of CCA, both in general and specifically among emerging adults, and suggest the importance of creating opportunities for collective action to build sense of agency in addressing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35250125, year = {2022}, author = {Karam, S and Seidou, O and Nagabhatla, N and Perera, D and Tshimanga, RM}, title = {Assessing the impacts of climate change on climatic extremes in the Congo River Basin.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {170}, number = {3-4}, pages = {40}, pmid = {35250125}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The Congo River Basin, located in central Africa, is the second-largest river basin in the world, after the Amazon. It has a drainage area of approximately 3.7 M km[2] and is home to 75 million people. A significant part of the population is exposed to recurrent floods and droughts, and climate change is likely to worsen these events. Climate change studies of the Congo River basin have so far focused on annual and seasonal precipitation, but little attention was paid to extreme climatic events. This study aims to assess future changes in rainfall-induced flash floods and drought regimes in the Congo basin from the present day to 2100, using four selected extreme climatic indices as proxies to these two natural disasters. The indices are the total annual precipitation (PCPTOT), the number of days where rainfall is above 20 mm (PCP20), the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The indices were calculated with the statistically downscaled output of eleven Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-AFRICA) under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 8.5 (high emissions scenario) and RCP 4.5 (moderate emissions scenario). Precipitation and temperature simulated by the RCMs were statistically downscaled using quantile mapping, while wind speed, solar radiation, and relative humidity were projected using K-nearest neighbor downscaling. The evolution of the indices was then assessed between the reference period (1976-2005) and three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Multimodel average results suggest that (i) independently of the scenario and period, PCPTOT and SPI will increase in the north, east, and western extremities of the basin and decrease in the basin's center. (ii) The maximum increase (+ 24%) and decrease (- 6%) in PCPTOT were both projected under RCP 8.5 in the 2071-2100 period. (iii) PCP20 will increase independently of the period and scenario. Under RCP 8.5, in the 2071-2100 period, PCP20 will increase by 94% on average over the whole watershed. (iv) The SPEI results suggest that in all periods and scenarios, the rise in evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures will offset annual precipitation increases in the north, east, and western extremities of the basin. Increased evaporation will exacerbate the decrease in annual precipitation in the center, leading to increased drought frequency in the entire basin.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03326-x.}, }
@article {pmid35248140, year = {2022}, author = {Edillo, F and Ymbong, RR and Bolneo, AA and Hernandez, RJ and Fuentes, BL and Cortes, G and Cabrera, J and Lazaro, JE and Sakuntabhai, A}, title = {Temperature, season, and latitude influence development-related phenotypes of Philippine Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus): Implications for dengue control amidst global warming.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {74}, pmid = {35248140}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {*Aedes ; Animals ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Phenotype ; Philippines/epidemiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is endemic in the Philippines. Aedes aegypti is the primary vector. This study aimed to determine the hatching behavior and viability of Ae. aegypti first-generation (F1) eggs when exposed to temperature and photoperiod regimes under laboratory conditions.<br><br>METHODS: Parental eggs were collected from selected highland and lowland sites in the Philippine big islands (Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao) during the wet (2017-2018) and dry (2018) seasons. F1 egg cohorts were exposed separately in environmental chambers at 18, 25, and 38&#xa0;&#xb0;C with respective photoperiods for 6 weeks. Phenotypes (percent pharate larvae [PPL], hatch rates [HRs], and reproductive outputs [ROs]) were determined.<br><br>RESULTS: Results of multivariate analyses of variance (MANOVA) between seasons showed significant main effects of temperature, season, and big island on all phenotypes across all sites. Significant interaction effects between seasons on all phenotypes across sites were shown between or among (1) season and big island, (2) season and temperature, (3) big island and temperature, (4) season, big island, and temperature, (5) big island, altitude, and temperature, and (6) season, big island, altitude, and temperature. Factors associated with the big islands might include their ecology, available breeding sites, and day lengths due to latitudinal differences, although they were not measured in the field. MANOVA results within each season on all phenotypes across sites showed (1) significant main effects of big island and temperature, and (2) significant interaction effects between big island and temperature within the wet season and (3) between temperature and photoperiod within the dry season. PPL were highest at 18&#xa0;&#xb0;C and were formed even at 38&#xa0;&#xb0;C in both seasons. Pharate larvae might play an adaptive role in global warming, expanded distribution to highlands, and preponderance to transmit human diseases. HRs in both seasons were highest at 25&#xa0;&#xb0;C and lowest at 38&#xa0;&#xb0;C. ROs were highest at 25&#xa0;&#xb0;C in the wet season and at 18&#xa0;&#xb0;C in the dry season.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Temperature and latitude of Philippine big islands influenced the development-related phenotypes of Ae. aegypti in both seasons. The two seasons influenced the phenotypes and their interaction effects with big island and/or temperature and/or altitude. Recommendations include year-round enhanced 4S control strategies for mosquito vectors and water pipeline installation in rural highlands.}, }
@article {pmid35247642, year = {2022}, author = {Van den Berg, J and Greyvenstein, B and du Plessis, H}, title = {Insect resistance management facing African smallholder farmers under climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {50}, number = {}, pages = {100894}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2022.100894}, pmid = {35247642}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Farmers ; Humans ; Insecta ; Insecticide Resistance ; *Insecticides/pharmacology ; Pest Control, Biological ; Plants, Genetically Modified/genetics ; }, abstract = {Changes in climatic conditions affect pest populations and ultimately result in increased pest status and yield losses. While pesticide application is usually the first defensive tool used to control pest species that threaten crop production, genetically modified (GM) crops with insecticidal traits (Bt crops) are becoming more common. The indiscriminate and over use of insecticides, and absence of insect resistance management (IRM) strategies ultimately lead to evolution of resistance against these technologies. IRM faces significant challenges in the African context. In this paper we use examples of cotton, maize, cowpea and tomato pests to illustrate their potential to evolve resistance to insecticides and also highlight the importance of IRM strategies, both with regard to the use of pesticides and the cultivation of Bt cotton, Bt maize and Bt cowpea.}, }
@article {pmid35247463, year = {2022}, author = {Setoguchi, S and Leddin, D and Metz, G and Omary, MB}, title = {Climate Change, Health, and Health Care Systems: A Global Perspective.}, journal = {Gastroenterology}, volume = {162}, number = {6}, pages = {1549-1555}, doi = {10.1053/j.gastro.2022.02.037}, pmid = {35247463}, issn = {1528-0012}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35247401, year = {2022}, author = {Antala, M and Juszczak, R and van der Tol, C and Rastogi, A}, title = {Impact of climate change-induced alterations in peatland vegetation phenology and composition on carbon balance.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {827}, number = {}, pages = {154294}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154294}, pmid = {35247401}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Sphagnopsida ; }, abstract = {Global climate is changing faster than humankind has ever experienced. Model-based predictions of future climate are becoming more complex and precise, but they still lack crucial information about the reaction of some important ecosystems, such as peatlands. Peatlands belong to one of the largest carbon stores on the Earth. They are mostly distributed in high latitudes, where the temperature rises faster than in the other parts of the planet. Warmer climate and changes in precipitation patterns cause changes in the composition and phenology of peatland vegetation. Peat mosses are becoming less abundant, vascular plants cover is increasing, and the vegetation season and phenophases of vascular plants start sooner. The alterations in vegetation cause changes in the carbon assimilation and release of greenhouse gases. Therefore, this article reviews the impact of climate change-induced alterations in peatland vegetation phenology and composition on future climate and the uncertainties that need to be addressed for more accurate climate prediction.}, }
@article {pmid35247351, year = {2022}, author = {Pascal, M and Phalkey, R and Rigal, L and Zoonekyndt, A and Mathieu, A and Gillingham, EL and Denys, S and Oliver, I and Chêne, G and Selbie, D}, title = {Public health institutes and the fight against climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Public health}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {e209}, pmid = {35247351}, issn = {2468-2667}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid35247212, year = {2022}, author = {Kerridge, I and Komesaroff, P}, title = {Thinking Honestly About Climate Change: Intergenerational Ethics and the Limits of Rationality.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {58}, number = {4}, pages = {739-740}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.15922}, pmid = {35247212}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35245550, year = {2022}, author = {Hu, N and Bourdeau, PE and Harlos, C and Liu, Y and Hollander, J}, title = {Meta-analysis reveals variance in tolerance to climate change across marine trophic levels.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {827}, number = {}, pages = {154244}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154244}, pmid = {35245550}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Marine ecosystems are currently facing a variety of anthropogenic perturbations, including climate change. Trophic differences in response to climate change may disrupt ecological interactions and thereby threaten marine ecosystem function. Yet, we still do not have a comprehensive understanding of how different trophic levels respond to climate change stressors in marine ecosystems. By including 1278 experiments, comprising 236 different marine species from 18 different phyla in a meta-analysis of studies measuring the direct effect of ocean acidification and ocean warming on marine organisms, we found that higher trophic level species display greater tolerance to ocean acidification but greater sensitivity to warming. In contrast, marine herbivores were the most vulnerable trophic level to both acidification and warming. Such imbalances in the community and a general reduction of biodiversity and biomass in lower trophic levels can significantly disrupt the system and could drive negative bottom-up effects. In conclusion, with ocean acidification and elevated temperatures, there is an alarming risk that trophic disparity may disrupt species interactions, and thereby drive community destabilization under ocean climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35244108, year = {2022}, author = {Hung, H and Halsall, C and Ball, H and Bidleman, T and Dachs, J and De Silva, A and Hermanson, M and Kallenborn, R and Muir, D and Sühring, R and Wang, X and Wilson, S}, title = {Climate change influence on the levels and trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and chemicals of emerging Arctic concern (CEACs) in the Arctic physical environment - a review.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {1577-1615}, doi = {10.1039/d1em00485a}, pmid = {35244108}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Persistent Organic Pollutants ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Pollutants/analysis ; Microplastics ; Plastics ; Arctic Regions ; *Biological Products ; }, abstract = {Climate change brings about significant changes in the physical environment in the Arctic. Increasing temperatures, sea ice retreat, slumping permafrost, changing sea ice regimes, glacial loss and changes in precipitation patterns can all affect how contaminants distribute within the Arctic environment and subsequently impact the Arctic ecosystems. In this review, we summarized observed evidence of the influence of climate change on contaminant circulation and transport among various Arctic environment media, including air, ice, snow, permafrost, fresh water and the marine environment. We have also drawn on parallel examples observed in Antarctica and the Tibetan Plateau, to broaden the discussion on how climate change may influence contaminant fate in similar cold-climate ecosystems. Significant knowledge gaps on indirect effects of climate change on contaminants in the Arctic environment, including those of extreme weather events, increase in forests fires, and enhanced human activities leading to new local contaminant emissions, have been identified. Enhanced mobilization of contaminants to marine and freshwater ecosystems has been observed as a result of climate change, but better linkages need to be made between these observed effects with subsequent exposure and accumulation of contaminants in biota. Emerging issues include those of Arctic contamination by microplastics and higher molecular weight halogenated natural products (hHNPs) and the implications of such contamination in a changing Arctic environment is explored.}, }
@article {pmid35243461, year = {2022}, author = {Qin, RX and Velin, L and Yates, EF and El Omrani, O and McLeod, E and Tudravu, J and Samad, L and Woodward, A and McClain, CD}, title = {Building sustainable and resilient surgical systems: A narrative review of opportunities to integrate climate change into national surgical planning in the Western Pacific region.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific}, volume = {22}, number = {}, pages = {100407}, pmid = {35243461}, issn = {2666-6065}, abstract = {Five billion people lack access to surgical care worldwide; climate change is the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. This review studies how climate change could be integrated into national surgical planning in the Western Pacific region. We searched databases (PubMed, Web of Science, and Global Health) for articles on climate change and surgical care. Findings were categorised using the modified World Health Organisation Health System Building Blocks Framework. 220 out of 2577 records were included. Infrastructure: Operating theatres are highly resource-intensive. Their carbon footprint could be reduced by maximising equipment longevity, improving energy efficiency, and renewable energy use. Service delivery Tele-medicine, outreaches, and avoiding desflurane could reduce emissions. Robust surgical systems are required to adapt to the increasing burden of surgically treated diseases, such as injuries from natural disasters. Finance: Climate change adaptation funds could be mobilised for surgical system strengthening. Information systems: Sustainability should be a key performance indicator for surgical systems. Workforce: Surgical providers could change clinical, institutional, and societal practices. Governance: Planning in surgical care and climate change should be aligned. Climate change mitigation is essential in the regional surgical care scale-up; surgical system strengthening is also necessary for adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35243218, year = {2022}, author = {Liu, X and Le Roux, X and Salles, JF}, title = {The legacy of microbial inoculants in agroecosystems and potential for tackling climate change challenges.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {103821}, pmid = {35243218}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Microbial inoculations contribute to reducing agricultural systems' environmental footprint by supporting sustainable production and regulating climate change. However, the indirect and cascading effects of microbial inoculants through the reshaping of soil microbiome are largely overlooked. By discussing the underlying mechanisms of plant- and soil-based microbial inoculants, we suggest that a key challenge in microbial inoculation is to understand their legacy on indigenous microbial communities and the corresponding impacts on agroecosystem functions and services relevant to climate change. We explain how these legacy effects on the soil microbiome can be understood by building on the mechanisms driving microbial invasions and placing inoculation into the context of ecological succession and community assembly. Overall, we advocate that generalizing field trials to systematically test inoculants' effectiveness and developing knowledge anchored in the scientific field of biological/microbial invasion are two essential requirements for applying microbial inoculants in agricultural ecosystems to tackle climate change challenges.}, }
@article {pmid35243064, year = {2022}, author = {Jiménez-U, M and Peña, LE and López, J}, title = {Non-stationary analysis for road drainage design under land-use and climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {e08942}, pmid = {35243064}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Frequency analysis has been the most widely used tool worldwide to dimension water-related infrastructures and evaluate flood risks. The concept of stationarity has been a common and practical hypothesis in hydrology for many years. However, in recent decades due to climate change pressure and changes in land use, it has been related to the presence of time-series trends that in hydrology indicate non-stationary effects. In this sense, the need to comprehensively address non-stationary frequency analysis has been identified. This study proposes to incorporate the non-stationary flood frequency analysis into the dimensioning process of road structures with the following objectives: i) evaluate the effect of land use on peak flow in a simulated period of 129 years, ii) evaluate covariates related to land use, and iii) evaluate covariates related to climate change. To this end, road drainage simulation exercises were carried out in three sections of the Ibagué-Cajamarca road located in Colombia. Likewise, the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape was implemented for the non-stationary analysis, and covariates related to climate variability were included, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices (ONI12, ONI3.4, MEI, and SOI), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, as well as some related to the evolution of land use such as hydraulic conductivity, soil water storage in the root zone, and infiltration capacity represented in the curve number. The results indicate that the non-stationary analysis improves the prediction of maximum flows, and it is possible to obtain road drainage dimensioning that adjusts to climate and land-use variations.}, }
@article {pmid35240569, year = {2022}, author = {Nassary, EK and Msomba, BH and Masele, WE and Ndaki, PM and Kahangwa, CA}, title = {Exploring urban green packages as part of Nature-based Solutions for climate change adaptation measures in rapidly growing cities of the Global South.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {310}, number = {}, pages = {114786}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114786}, pmid = {35240569}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Given a lot of elusive information on the use and implementation of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) in the Global South, this review provides a synthesis of the evidence on the: - (1) distribution of urban green technologies in form of arboriculture and urban agriculture as a part of NbS packages for the sustainability of cities against population growth and impact of climate change; and (2) options of integrating and mainstreaming various NbS packages into city development policies, planning processes, and decision-making agendas. The sustainability of urban green as part of NbS packages and the usefulness for improvement of livelihoods is determined by the spatial (geographical location) and temporal (time of action) scales, and socio-ecological and institutional factors. Various NbS packages have shown the ability for use as climate change adaptation measures throughout the world. These functions include protection from soil erosion, protection from inland flooding, buffering natural resources against drier and more variable climates, protection from coastal hazards and sea-level rise, moderation of urban heatwaves and effects of heat island, and managing storm-water and flooding in urban areas. Furthermore, the benefits of urban agriculture and arboriculture include use as sources of food and generation of income; improve recreation and social interactions, and the sustainability of biodiversity. They also mitigate the impact of environmental pollution and climate change through reduction of gas emissions and act as carbon sinks. While the starting capital and lack of policy on urban agriculture and arboriculture in many countries, the importance of the industry is inevitably a useful agenda especially in the Global South due to vulnerability to the impact of climate change. This review also suggests the inclusion of all institutions, governments, and relevant stakeholders to emphasize gender sensitization at all levels of planning and decision-making in food production and adaptation measures to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35240333, year = {2022}, author = {Schneider, L and Rebetez, M and Rasmann, S}, title = {The effect of climate change on invasive crop pests across biomes.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {50}, number = {}, pages = {100895}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2022.100895}, pmid = {35240333}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has various and complex effects on crop pests worldwide. In this review, we detail the role of the main climatic parameters related to temperature and precipitation changes that might have direct or indirect impacts on pest species. Changes in these parameters are likely to favour or to limit pest species, depending on their ecological context. On a global scale, crop pests are expected to benefit from current and future climate change. However, substantial differences appear across biomes and species. Temperate regions are generally more likely to face an increase in pest attacks compared with tropical regions. Therefore, climate change effects should be studied in the context of local climate and local ecological interactions across biomes.}, }
@article {pmid35240175, year = {2022}, author = {Liu, L and Lei, Y and Zhuang, M and Ding, S}, title = {The impact of climate change on urban resilience in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {827}, number = {}, pages = {154157}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154157}, pmid = {35240175}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/analysis ; Beijing ; China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Wind ; }, abstract = {The increasing uncertainty related to disaster risk under climate change brings about new challenges for sustainable urban management. The emergence of the urban resilience concept can improve the ability and extent to which cities can absorb and resolve risks, providing insight into the sustainable development of cities and regions. Yet, to date, the impact of climate change on regional urban resilience is not well understood. This paper measures the changes in urban resilience of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region from 1998 to 2019, and then explores the contribution of climate influencing factors such as temperature, precipitation and wind speed to urban resilience using econometric models. Results demonstrate the following: (1) Urban resilience shows a large spatial heterogeneity in the BTH region. Overall, Beijing and Tianjin have better and more stable resilience than Hebei Province. (2) Regarding the static impact of climate change on urban resilience, a 1 unit increase in Ln temperature and Ln precipitation will respectively increase Ln resilience by 1.01 units and 0.54 units, indicating that it has a significant positive impact on urban resilience. Each 1 unit increase in Ln wind speed will decrease resilience by 1.65 units, representing a significant negative effect. (3) Regarding the dynamic impact of climate change on urban resilience, a positive 1 unit impact of climatic factors indicates that an increase in temperature will first increase and then decrease urban resilience, and an increase in precipitation and wind speed will initially support improvement in urban resilience. Based on these findings, this article offers policy recommendations to improve urban resilience.}, }
@article {pmid35239215, year = {2022}, author = {Zust, B and Jost, R}, title = {Public health awareness of climate change's impact on health.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {797-805}, doi = {10.1111/phn.13050}, pmid = {35239215}, issn = {1525-1446}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Climate change impacts the public's health. People are at risk for extreme weather events in the 21st century. The purpose of this study was to assess Public Health agencies' awareness of climate change's impact on health, and what protective and preventive strategies the agencies have in place.<br><br>METHOD: Using mixed method research, a survey was designed to collect quantitative and qualitative data. Following IRB approval, surveys were sent to eight Public Health agencies in the USA's rural and urban Midwest, and rural Alaska.<br><br>ANALYSIS: Quantitative data were analyzed using simple frequencies and means. Qualitative data were analyzed using content analysis and Public Health frameworks.<br><br>RESULTS: Thirty-three agency personnel completed the surveys. All agencies identified emerging, new health problems. Seven agencies had climate change doubters and/or opposition from the community regarding climate change reality. All eight agencies were underfunded.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Public Health agencies need financial resources to prepare for climate change threats and events. Climate change is a global reality. The world needs to collectively work together on this issue.}, }
@article {pmid35238906, year = {2022}, author = {D'Alò, F and Baldrian, P and Odriozola, I and Morais, D and Větrovský, T and Zucconi, L and Ripa, C and Cannone, N and Malfasi, F and Onofri, S}, title = {Composition and functioning of the soil microbiome in the highest altitudes of the Italian Alps and potential effects of climate change.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology ecology}, volume = {98}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsec/fiac025}, pmid = {35238906}, issn = {1574-6941}, mesh = {Altitude ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Microbiota ; *Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {As the European Alps are experiencing a strong climate warming, this study analyzed the soil microbiome at different altitudes and among different vegetation types at the Stelvio Pass (Italian Alps), aiming to (i) characterize the composition and functional potential of the microbiome of soils and their gene expression during the peak vegetative stage; (ii) explore the potential short-term (using open-top chambers) and long-term (space-for-time substitutions) effects of increasing temperature on the alpine soil microbiome. We found that the functional potential of the soil microbiome and its expression differed among vegetation types. Microbial α-diversity increased along the altitudinal gradient. At lower altitude, shrubland had the highest proportion of fungi, which was correlated with higher amounts of CAZymes, specific for degrading fungal biomass and recalcitrant plant biopolymers. Subalpine upward vegetation shift could lead a possible loss of species of alpine soils. Shrub encroachment may accelerate higher recalcitrant C decomposition and reduce total ecosystem C storage, increasing the efflux of CO2 to the atmosphere with a positive feedback to warming. A total of 5 years of warming had no effect on the composition and functioning of microbial communities, indicating that longer-term warming experiments are needed to investigate the effects of temperature increases on the soil microbiome.}, }
@article {pmid35238138, year = {2022}, author = {Petrik, P and Petek-Petrik, A and Kurjak, D and Mukarram, M and Klein, T and Gömöry, D and Střelcová, K and Frýdl, J and Konôpková, A}, title = {Interannual adjustments in stomatal and leaf morphological traits of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) demonstrate its climate change acclimation potential.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {24}, number = {7}, pages = {1287-1296}, doi = {10.1111/plb.13401}, pmid = {35238138}, issn = {1438-8677}, support = {VEGA 1/0535/20//Agent&#xfa;ra Ministerstva &#x161;kolstva, vedy, v&#xfd;skumu a &#x161;portu SR/ ; APVV-18-0390//Agent&#xfa;ra na Podporu V&#xfd;skumu a V&#xfd;voja/ ; MZE-RO0118//N&#xe1;rodn&#xed; Agentura pro Zem&#x11b;d&#x11b;lsk Vzkum/ ; LM2018123//Ministerstvo &#x160;kolstv&#xed;, Ml&#xe1;de&#x17e;e a T&#x11b;lov&#xfd;chovy/ ; }, mesh = {*Fagus ; Climate Change ; Plant Leaves/anatomy &amp; histology ; Trees ; Acclimatization ; }, abstract = {The current projections of climate change might exceed the ability of European forest trees to adapt to upcoming environmental conditions. However, stomatal and leaf morphological traits could greatly influence the acclimation potential of forest tree species subjected to global warming, including the single most important forestry species in Europe, European beech. We analysed stomatal (guard cell length, stomatal density and potential conductance index) and leaf (leaf area, leaf dry weight and leaf mass per area) morphological traits of ten provenances from two provenance trials with contrasting climates between 2016 and 2020. The impact of meteorological conditions of the current and preceding year on stomatal and leaf traits was tested by linear and quadratic regressions. Ecodistance was used to capture the impact of adaptation after the transfer of provenances to new environments. Interactions of trial-provenance and trial-year factors were significant for all measured traits. Guard cell length was lowest and stomatal density was highest across beech provenances in the driest year, 2018. Adaptation was also reflected in a significant relationship between aridity ecodistance and measured traits. Moreover, the meteorological conditions of the preceding year affected the interannual variability of stomatal and leaf traits more than the meteorological conditions of the spring of the current year, suggesting the existence of plant stress memory. High intraspecific variability of stomatal and leaf traits controlled by the interaction of adaptation, acclimation and plant memory suggests a high acclimation potential of European beech provenances under future conditions of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35237548, year = {2022}, author = {Spencer, S and Samateh, T and Wabnitz, K and Mayhew, S and Allen, H and Bonell, A}, title = {The Challenges of Working in the Heat Whilst Pregnant: Insights From Gambian Women Farmers in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {785254}, pmid = {35237548}, issn = {2296-2565}, support = {216336/Z/19/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Female ; Gambia ; Headache ; Humans ; Male ; Pregnancy ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The expected increase in heat in The Gambia is one of the most significant health threats caused by climate change. However, little is known about the gendered dynamics of exposure and response to heat stress, including women's perceived health risks, their adaptation strategies to heat, and their perceptions of climate change. This research project aims to answer the question of whether and how pregnant farmers in The Gambia perceive and act upon occupational heat stress and its health impacts on both themselves and their unborn children, against the backdrop of current and expected climatic changes.<br><br>METHOD: In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 women who practice subsistence farming and were either pregnant or had delivered within the past month in West Kiang, The Gambia. Participants were selected using purposive sampling. Translated interview transcripts were coded and qualitative thematic content analysis with an intersectional lens was used to arrive at the results.<br><br>RESULTS: All women who participated in the study experience significant heat stress while working outdoors during pregnancy, with symptoms often including headache, dizziness, nausea, and chills. The most common adaptive techniques included resting in the shade while working, completing their work in multiple shorter time increments, taking medicine to reduce symptoms like headache, using water to cool down, and reducing the amount of area they cultivate. Layered identities, experiences, and household power structures related to age, migration, marital situation, socioeconomic status, and supportive social relationships shaped the extent to which women were able to prevent and reduce the effects of heat exposure during their work whilst pregnant. Women who participated in this study demonstrated high awareness of climate change and offered important insights into potential values, priorities, and mechanisms to enable effective adaptation.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our findings reveal many intersecting social and economic factors that shape the space within which women can make decisions and take adaptive action to reduce the impact of heat during their pregnancy. To improve the health of pregnant working women exposed to heat, these intersectionalities must be considered when supporting women to adapt their working practices and cope with heat stress.}, }
@article {pmid35235849, year = {2022}, author = {Ilarri, M and Souza, AT and Dias, E and Antunes, C}, title = {Influence of climate change and extreme weather events on an estuarine fish community.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {827}, number = {}, pages = {154190}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154190}, pmid = {35235849}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Estuaries ; *Extreme Weather ; Fishes ; Floods ; Introduced Species ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent as a result of climate change, and the increasing frequency of these events may lead to significant changes in fish assemblages. In this sense, this work aimed to study the effects of climate change and extreme weather events on fish assemblages in the Rio Minho estuary (Portugal). Between 2010 and 2019, continuous weekly sampling with fyke nets was carried out to assess the dynamics of fish assemblages in the estuary. In addition, temperature and precipitation data were obtained from satellite information to assess the relationship between climatic variables and fish composition, structure, and diversity. Fish populations changed significantly over time, becoming less diverse and largely dominated by a few, mostly invasive species (e.g., carp, goldfish, pumpkinseed, and tench), while the abundance of most native species declined over the years (e.g., panjorca, stickleback, and shad). High temperatures and low precipitation negatively affected native species, while the invasive species benefited from increased temperatures and extreme weather events (droughts and floods).}, }
@article {pmid35235190, year = {2022}, author = {Seritan, AL and Hasser, C and Burke, MG and Bussmann, GL and Charlesworth, A and Cooper, R and Fortuna, LR and Herbst, ED and Jayaratne, A and Richards, A and Stuart, BK and Epel, E}, title = {The Climate Change and Mental Health Task Force: One Academic Psychiatry Department's Efforts to Heed the Call to Action.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {588-589}, pmid = {35235190}, issn = {1545-7230}, support = {N/a//University of California, San Francisco/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Organizations ; *Psychiatry/education ; }, }
@article {pmid35235036, year = {2022}, author = {Iwanycki Ahlstrand, N and Primack, RB and Tøttrup, AP}, title = {A comparison of herbarium and citizen science phenology datasets for detecting response of flowering time to climate change in Denmark.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {5}, pages = {849-862}, pmid = {35235036}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Citizen Science ; *Climate Change ; Denmark ; Flowers/physiology ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Phenology has emerged as a key metric to measure how species respond to changes in climate. Innovative means have been developed to extend the temporal and spatial range of phenological data by obtaining data from herbarium specimens, citizen science programs, and biodiversity data repositories. These different data types have seldom been compared for their effectiveness in detecting environmental impacts on phenology. To address this, we compare three separate phenology datasets from Denmark: (i) herbarium specimen data spanning 145 years, (ii) data collected from a citizen science phenology program over a single year observing first flowering, and (iii) data derived from incidental biodiversity observations in iNaturalist over a single year. Each dataset includes flowering day of year observed for three common spring-flowering plant species: Allium ursinum (ramsons), Aesculus hippocastanum (horse chestnut), and Sambucus nigra (black elderberry). The incidental iNaturalist dataset provided the most extensive geographic coverage across Denmark and the largest sample size and recorded peak flowering in a way comparable to herbarium specimens. The directed citizen science dataset recorded much earlier flowering dates because the program objective was to report the first flowering, and so was less compared to the other two datasets. Herbarium data demonstrated the strongest effect of spring temperature on flowering in Denmark, possibly because it was the only dataset measuring temporal variation in phenology, while the other datasets measured spatial variation. Herbarium data predicted the mean flowering day of year recorded in our iNaturalist dataset for all three species. Combining herbarium data with iNaturalist data provides an even more effective method for detecting climatic effects on phenology. Phenology observations from directed and incidental citizen science initiatives will increase in value for climate change research in the coming years with the addition of data capturing the inter-annual variation in phenology.}, }
@article {pmid35232726, year = {2022}, author = {Dyer, O}, title = {Climate change is outpacing efforts to adapt, warns intergovernmental panel.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {376}, number = {}, pages = {o541}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.o541}, pmid = {35232726}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid35231416, year = {2022}, author = {Malhi, Y and Lander, T and le Roux, E and Stevens, N and Macias-Fauria, M and Wedding, L and Girardin, C and Kristensen, J&#xc5; and Sandom, CJ and Evans, TD and Svenning, JC and Canney, S}, title = {The role of large wild animals in climate change mitigation and adaptation.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {32}, number = {4}, pages = {R181-R196}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2022.01.041}, pmid = {35231416}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; Biodiversity ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Two major environmental challenges of our time are responding to climate change and reversing biodiversity decline. Interventions that simultaneously tackle both challenges are highly desirable. To date, most studies aiming to find synergistic interventions for these two challenges have focused on protecting or restoring vegetation and soils but overlooked how conservation or restoration of large wild animals might influence the climate mitigation and adaptation potential of ecosystems. However, interactions between large animal conservation and climate change goals may not always be positive. Here, we review wildlife conservation and climate change mitigation in terrestrial and marine ecosystems. We elucidate general principles about the biome types where, and mechanisms by which, positive synergies and negative trade-offs between wildlife conservation and climate change mitigation are likely. We find that large animals have the greatest potential to facilitate climate change mitigation at a global scale via three mechanisms: changes in fire regime, especially in previously low-flammability biomes with a new or intensifying fire regime, such as mesic grasslands or warm temperate woodlands; changes in terrestrial albedo, particularly where there is potential to shift from closed canopy to open canopy systems at higher latitudes; and increases in vegetation and soil carbon stocks, especially through a shift towards below-ground carbon pools in temperate, tropical and sub-tropical grassland ecosystems. Large animals also contribute to ecosystem adaptation to climate change by promoting complexity of trophic webs, increasing habitat heterogeneity, enhancing plant dispersal, increasing resistance to abrupt ecosystem change and through microclimate modification.}, }
@article {pmid35231182, year = {2022}, author = {Hartmann, H and Bastos, A and Das, AJ and Esquivel-Muelbert, A and Hammond, WM and Martínez-Vilalta, J and McDowell, NG and Powers, JS and Pugh, TAM and Ruthrof, KX and Allen, CD}, title = {Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide.}, journal = {Annual review of plant biology}, volume = {73}, number = {}, pages = {673-702}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-arplant-102820-012804}, pmid = {35231182}, issn = {1545-2123}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. Here, we document events of sudden and unexpected elevated tree mortality following heat and drought events in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk of exposure. These events underscore the fact that climate change may affect forests with unexpected force in the future. We use the events as examples to highlight current difficulties and challenges for realistically predicting such tree mortality events and the uncertainties about future forest condition. Advances in remote sensing technology and greater availably of high-resolution data, from both field assessments and satellites, are needed to improve both understanding and prediction of forest responses to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35229519, year = {2022}, author = {He, P and Bi, RT and Xu, LS and Wang, JS and Cao, CB}, title = {[Using geographical detection to analyze responses of vegetation growth to climate change in the Loess Pla-teau, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {33}, number = {2}, pages = {448-456}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202202.012}, pmid = {35229519}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Meteorological Concepts ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In order to explore the responses of different vegetation types to climatic change in the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), we analzyed the changes of different vegetation types and their relationships with meteorological factors using trend analysis, Hurst index, and geographical detector model based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The results showed that NDVI of different vegetation types from 2002 to 2019 was dominated by a growing trend and codirectional moderate persistence. The NDVI of crops in the built-up and adjacent areas decreased significantly. Except for grassland or meadow that was affected by mixed pixels, the spatial variation of NDVI was significant in the growing season (from April to October). The mean NDVI of different vegetation types followed an oder: coniferous forest > broadleaved forest > scrub > meadow > grassland > crop > steppe > desert. The interactions between meteorological factors were synergistic and non-linear enhancement in the CLP. Moreover, the interaction was more prominent under steppe and desert where habitat was fragile. The synergistic effect of precipitation and temperature had a great influence on all vegetation types. Water vapor, relative humidity, sunshine duration, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed had different explanatory powers on NDVI through indirectly affec-ting hydrothermal conditions.}, }
@article {pmid35228735, year = {2022}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Climate change is hitting the planet faster than scientists originally thought.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-00585-7}, pmid = {35228735}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid35228708, year = {2022}, author = {Brisbois, MC}, title = {Climate change won't wait for future innovation - we need action now.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {603}, number = {7899}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-00560-2}, pmid = {35228708}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid35228626, year = {2022}, author = {Adhikari, P and Kim, BJ and Hong, SH and Lee, DH}, title = {Climate change induced habitat expansion of nutria (Myocastor coypus) in South Korea.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {3300}, pmid = {35228626}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Meat ; Republic of Korea ; Rodentia ; }, abstract = {The nutria, (Myocastor coypus), is a semiaquatic rodent native to the subtropical and temperate regions of South America. The species was introduced to South Korea for meat and fur production purposes and a wild population has become established. The species subsequently invaded aquatic ecosystems and destroyed aquatic vegetation and cultivated crops. Thus, it is essential to understand their current distribution and future range expansion for effective control and eradication strategies to reduce the risk of colonization into new regions. In this study, we used niche modeling procedure to identify potentially suitable habitats for M. coypus under current and future predicted climate change using the maximum entropy algorithm. We found that the main habitat area of M. coypus is expected to expand under a warming climate from ~ 4069 km[2] in the southern and southeastern regions of South Korea, to the northern border of the country, with estimated ranges of 21,744 km[2], 55,859 km[2], and 64,937 km[2] by 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively. The findings of the present study assist in identifying the future distribution and potential dispersion routes of M. coypus in South Korea, which is important for informing the government regarding essential management actions plans at regional and local scales.}, }
@article {pmid35226784, year = {2022}, author = {Nadeau, CP and Giacomazzo, A and Urban, MC}, title = {Cool microrefugia accumulate and conserve biodiversity under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {10}, pages = {3222-3235}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16143}, pmid = {35226784}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Invertebrates ; Microclimate ; }, abstract = {A major challenge in climate change biology is to explain why the impacts of climate change vary around the globe. Microclimates could explain some of this variation, but climate change biologists often overlook microclimates because they are difficult to map. Here, we map microclimates in a freshwater rock pool ecosystem and evaluate how accounting for microclimates alters predictions of climate change impacts on aquatic invertebrates. We demonstrate that average maximum temperature during the growing season can differ by 9.9-11.6°C among microclimates less than a meter apart and this microclimate variation might increase by 21% in the future if deeper pools warm less than shallower pools. Accounting for this microclimate variation significantly alters predictions of climate change impacts on aquatic invertebrates. Predictions that exclude microclimates predict low future occupancy (0.08-0.32) and persistence probabilities (2%-73%) for cold-adapted taxa, and therefore predict decreases in gamma richness and a substantial shift toward warm-adapted taxa in local communities (i.e., thermophilization). However, predictions incorporating microclimates suggest cool locations will remain suitable for cold-adapted taxa in the future, no change in gamma richness, and 825% less thermophilization. Our models also suggest that cool locations will become suitable for warm-adapted taxa and will therefore accumulate biodiversity in the future, which makes cool locations essential for biodiversity conservation. Simulated protection of the 10 coolest microclimates (9% of locations on the landscape) results in a 100% chance of conserving all focal taxa in the future. In contrast, protecting the 10 currently most biodiverse locations, a commonly employed conservation strategy, results in a 3% chance of conserving all focal taxa in the future. Our study suggests that we must account for microclimates if we hope to understand the future impacts of climate change and design effective conservation strategies to limit biodiversity loss.}, }
@article {pmid35226225, year = {2022}, author = {Sandoval-Martínez, J and Flores-Cano, JA and Badano, EI}, title = {Recruitment of pioneer trees with physically dormant seeds under climate change: the case of Vachellia pennatula (Fabaceae) in semiarid environments of Mexico.}, journal = {Journal of plant research}, volume = {135}, number = {3}, pages = {453-463}, pmid = {35226225}, issn = {1618-0860}, support = {FORDECYT 297525//Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog&#xed;a de M&#xe9;xico/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fabaceae ; Germination ; Mexico ; Seedlings ; Seeds ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Most tree species native to arid and semiarid ecosystems produce seeds with physical dormancy, which have impermeable coats that protect them from desiccation and prevent germination when the environmental conditions are unfavorable for seedling establishment. This dormancy mechanism may confer some degree of tolerance to seeds facing warmer and drier conditions, as those expected in several regions of the world because of climate change. Scarification of these seeds (removal of protective coats) is required for stimulating germination and seedling development. However, as scarification exposes seeds to the external environmental conditions, it can promote desiccation and viability loss in the future. To test these hypotheses, we performed field experiments and sowed scarified and unscarified seeds of a pioneer tree native to semiarid ecosystems of Mesoamerica (Vachellia pennatula) under the current climate and simulated climate change conditions. The experiments were conducted at abandoned fields using open-top chambers to increase temperature and rainout shelters to reduce rainfall. We measured microenvironmental conditions within the experimental plots and monitored seedling emergence and survival during a year. Air temperature and rainfall in climate change simulations approached the values expected for the period 2041-2080. Seedling emergence rates under these climatic conditions were lower than under the current climate. Nevertheless, emergence rates in climate change simulations were even lower for scarified than for unscarified seeds, while the converse occurred under the current climate. On the other hand, although survival rates in climate change simulations were lower than under the current climate, no effects of the scarification treatment were found. In this way, our study suggests that climate change will impair the recruitment of pioneer trees in semiarid environments, even if they produce seeds with physical dormancy, but also indicates that these negative effects will be stronger if seeds are scarified.}, }
@article {pmid35224532, year = {2022}, author = {Kulcar, V and Siller, H and Juen, B}, title = {Discovering emotional patterns for climate change and for the COVID-19 pandemic in university students.}, journal = {The journal of climate change and health}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {100125}, pmid = {35224532}, issn = {2667-2782}, abstract = {The global crises of climate change and of the COVID-19 pandemic are straining young peoples' mental health and their mitigation behaviours. We surveyed German-speaking university students aged 18 to 30 years on their negative emotions regarding both crises repeatedly before and during the COVID-19 crisis. Different emotional patterns emerged for climate change and for COVID-19 with negative emotions regarding COVID-19 increasing during the pandemic. We were further able to differentiate between emotional responses associated with impaired wellbeing and those associated with mitigation efforts. Our findings emphasise the need to focus on a mixture of highly inactivating and activating emotions regarding COVID-19 as they are associated with both reduced wellbeing and mitigation behaviours. The findings broaden the understanding of how young adults react to the burden of two global crises and what role negative emotions play.}, }
@article {pmid35223359, year = {2022}, author = {Chanza, N and Musakwa, W}, title = {Indigenous local observations and experiences can give useful indicators of climate change in data-deficient regions.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {534-546}, pmid = {35223359}, issn = {2190-6483}, abstract = {This study demonstrates that Indigenous local observations and experiences can enrich knowledge of climate change, particularly in data-deficient regions that are not adequately covered by weather stations. Paradoxically, these places host groups of Indigenous Peoples who have rich knowledge about their local climates from their many years of constant interactions with the environment. The study used group-based semi-structured interviews to collaborate with keystone elderly participants who had profound knowledge and lived experiences about observed changes in their local environment (n = 13). These participants were identified through theoretical sampling from four remote Indigenous villages of Mbire District in Zimbabwe. The purpose of the study was to identify indicators of climate change impacts from communities believed not to have been much influenced by the scientific construct of climate change. Results revealed that the locals have a keen interest to closely observe changes occurring in their environment, including finer accounts of experiences with climatic events, owing to their predominantly climate-sensitive livelihoods. These results corroborate existing evidence about a warmer and drier climate and the reported increase in the frequency and severity of drought as well as floods in the area, and add finer details to the changes in ecological, hydrological and human systems, which are not sufficiently reported in existing climate impact studies. We also flagged new observations in biological systems as pointers for further intensive investigation. Given the complexity associated with understanding impacts of climate change and the urgent need to refine knowledge about the same, we argued for perforation of the boundaries of climate science to accommodate enriching perceptions of Indigenous communities who have been religiously observing changes happening in their local environment, albeit being relegated.}, }
@article {pmid35222979, year = {2022}, author = {Zhao, Q and Mi, ZY and Lu, C and Zhang, XF and Chen, LJ and Wang, SQ and Niu, JF and Wang, ZZ}, title = {Predicting potential distribution of Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen in China under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {e8629}, pmid = {35222979}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen is a woody plant species of the family Rhamnaceae (order Rhamnales) that possesses high nutritional and medicinal value. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of Z. spinosa is of great significance for the investigation, protection, and exploitation of this germplasm resource. For this study, optimized maximum entropy models were employed to predict the distribution patterns and changes of its present (1970-2000) and future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) potential suitable regions in China under multiple climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 &amp; SSP5-8.5). The results revealed that the total area of the present potential suitable region for Z. spinosa is 162.60 × 10[4] km[2], which accounts for 16.94% of China's territory. Within this area, the regions having low, medium, and high suitability were 80.14 × 10[4] km[2], 81.50 × 10[4] km[2], and 0.96 × 10[4] km[2], respectively, with the high suitability regions being distributed primarily in Shanxi, Hebei, and Beijing Provinces. Except for SSP-1-2.6-2070s, SSP-5-8.5-2070s, and SSP-5-8.5-2090s, the suitable areas for Z. spinosa in the future increased to different degrees. Meanwhile, considering the distribution of Z. spinosa during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study predicted that the low impact areas of Z. spinosa were mainly restricted to Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin Provinces. The results of core distributional shifts showed that, except for SSP1-2.6, the center of the potential suitable region of Z. spinosa exhibited a trend of gradually shifting to the northwest.}, }
@article {pmid35220772, year = {2022}, author = {Surkovic, E and Vigar, D}, title = {Scientific advice for policymakers on climate change: the role of evidence synthesis.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {380}, number = {2221}, pages = {20210147}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2021.0147}, pmid = {35220772}, issn = {1471-2962}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; }, abstract = {Science has a role to play in providing the evidence on both climate change and the solutions to it. In this paper, we look at the nature of expert advice to public policymakers and examine one approach to the synthesis of scientific evidence. We focus on a series of briefings for policymakers that summarize evidence from 12 areas of science and technology which are keys to accelerating progress towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions and resilience to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Developing resilient energy systems'.}, }
@article {pmid35219671, year = {2022}, author = {Moradian, S and Akbari, M and Iglesias, G}, title = {Optimized hybrid ensemble technique for CMIP6 wind data projections under different climate-change scenarios. Case study: United Kingdom.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {826}, number = {}, pages = {154124}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154124}, pmid = {35219671}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Temperature ; Uncertainty ; *Wind ; }, abstract = {Wind energy resources will be impacted by climate change. A novel hybrid ensemble technique is presented to improve long-term wind speed projections using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data from global climate models. The technique constructs an optimized system, which relies on a Genetic Algorithm and an Enhanced Colliding Bodies Optimization technique. Next, the performance of the proposed method over a target area (United Kingdom) is evaluated between 1950 and 2014. Finally, to avoid single-valued deterministic projections and mitigate the uncertainties, the improved wind speed data series are investigated considering different climate-change scenarios - the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) - for the period 2015-2050. The performance of different CMIP6 models is found to differ over time and space. In the target area the data derived from the Hybrid model confirm that extreme wind events will occur more frequently. The monthly mean wind speed is expected to increase from 3.41 m/s during 1950-2014 to 3.60, 3.63, 3.48, 3.59 and 3.61 m/s during the study period in the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5 climate-change scenarios, respectively. More generally, the results prove that the Hybrid model is highly effective in improving the accuracy, direction and geographical patterns of the data, and this novel method can narrow the potential uncertainties of numerical simulations.}, }
@article {pmid35219665, year = {2022}, author = {Benito, X and Benito, B and Vélez, MI and Salgado, J and Schneider, T and Giosan, L and Nascimento, MN}, title = {Human practices behind the aquatic and terrestrial ecological decoupling to climate change in the tropical Andes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {826}, number = {}, pages = {154115}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154115}, pmid = {35219665}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Diatoms/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Geologic Sediments ; Humans ; Lakes ; Water ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change and landscape alteration are two of the most important threats to the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of the tropical Americas, thus jeopardizing water and soil resources for millions of people in the Andean nations. Understanding how aquatic ecosystems will respond to anthropogenic stressors and accelerated warming requires shifting from short-term and static to long-term, dynamic characterizations of human-terrestrial-aquatic relationships. Here we use sediment records from Lake Llaviucu, a tropical mountain Andean lake long accessed by Indigenous and post-European societies, and hypothesize that under natural historical conditions (i.e., low human pressure) vegetation and aquatic ecosystems' responses to change are coupled through indirect climate influences-that is, past climate-driven vegetation changes dictated limnological trajectories. We used a multi-proxy paleoecological approach including drivers of terrestrial vegetation change (pollen), soil erosion (Titanium), human activity (agropastoralism indicators), and aquatic responses (diatoms) to estimate assemblage-wide rates of change and model their synchronous and asynchronous (lagged) relationships using Generalized Additive Models. Assemblage-wide rate of change results showed that between ca. 3000 and 400 calibrated years before present (cal years BP) terrestrial vegetation, agropastoralism and diatoms fluctuated along their mean regimes of rate of change without consistent periods of synchronous rapid change. In contrast, positive lagged relationships (i.e., asynchrony) between climate-driven terrestrial pollen changes and diatom responses (i.e., asynchrony) were in operation until ca. 750 cal years BP. Thereafter, positive lagged relationships between agropastoralism and diatom rates of changes dictated the lake trajectory, reflecting the primary control of human practices over the aquatic ecosystem prior European occupation. We interpret that shifts in Indigenous practices (e.g., valley terracing) curtailed nutrient inputs into the lake decoupling the links between climate-driven vegetation changes and the aquatic community. Our results demonstrate how rates of change of anthropogenic and climatic influences can guide dynamic ecological baselines for managing water ecosystem services in the Andes.}, }
@article {pmid35219662, year = {2022}, author = {Virta, L and Teittinen, A}, title = {Threshold effects of climate change on benthic diatom communities: Evaluating impacts of salinity and wind disturbance on functional traits and benthic biomass.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {826}, number = {}, pages = {154130}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154130}, pmid = {35219662}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Biomass ; Climate Change ; *Diatoms/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Rivers ; Salinity ; Wind ; }, abstract = {The responses of biotic communities and ecosystems to climate change may be abrupt and non-linear. Thus, resolving ecological threshold mechanisms is crucial for understanding the consequences of climate change and for improving environmental management. Here, we present a study on the threshold responses of benthic diatom communities that are an important component of all aquatic environments and strongly contribute to global primary production. We reach beyond the taxonomic perspective by focusing on the diversity and functions of diatom communities and benthic biomass along gradients of salinity and wind disturbance, whose climate-change-induced changes have been predicted to strongly affect biotic communities in the marine and brackish systems in the future. To improve the generality of our results, we examine three self-collected datasets from different spatial scales (6-830 km) and ecosystem types. We collected samples from rock pools or from littoral stones and studied taxonomic thresholds using Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN2). We investigated threshold responses of community diversity, community functions, and benthic biomass using t-tests and regression analyses. Our results indicated that decreasing salinity may result in increasing diversity but decreasing biomass of brackish communities, while the effects of increasing wind disturbance were contradictory among spatial scales. Benthic biomass correlated with the taxonomic and functional diversity, as well as with the body size distribution of communities, highlighting the importance of considering community functions and organismal size when predicting ecosystem functions. The most pronounced effects of decreasing salinity and increasing wind disturbance on community functions were changes in the abundance of low-profile diatom species, which, due to the high resilience of low-profile diatoms, may lead to changes in ecosystem functioning and resilience. To conclude, decreasing salinity and increasing wind disturbance may lead to threshold responses of biotic communities, and these changes may have profound effects on ecosystem functioning along marine coastal areas.}, }
@article {pmid35218487, year = {2022}, author = {Qamar, S and Ahmad, M and Oryani, B and Zhang, Q}, title = {Solar energy technology adoption and diffusion by micro, small, and medium enterprises: sustainable energy for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {32}, pages = {49385-49403}, pmid = {35218487}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {71572115//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2016WZDXM005//Major Program of Social Science Foundation of Guangdong/ ; GD20CGL28//Guangdong 13thFive-Year-Plan Philosophical and Social Science Fund/ ; 836//Natural Science Foundation of SZU/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Renewable Energy ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Solar Energy ; Technology ; }, abstract = {This research intends to identify influential factors in adopting and diffusing solar energy technology (SET) by micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in two tehsils of Multan district in Pakistan's Punjab province. To this end, the influential factors are identified through studying literature surveys and conducting questionnaires. Following that, partial least squares-based path modeling is employed. The results showed that (1) enterprises' size, perceived SET's ease of use, and perceived SET's reliability are the top three driving factors. (2) The perceived SET's price, perceived level of competition's pressure, and MSME's energy cost intensity are the barriers to the adoption and diffusion of SET, while the lack of technical knowledge about SET is a neutral factor. (3) Perceived SET's price, MSMEs' energy cost intensity, and enterprises' size are among the most important factors based on the effect size and path coefficients, while the lack of technical knowledge about SET, preferences of MSMEs' customers, and eco-labels and green stickers have lower importance. Since the adoption of SET is a rational decision that is concretely dependent on economic incentives, it is recommended to lower the price of SET to scale up the adoption and diffusion of SET by Pakistani MSMEs.}, }
@article {pmid35216108, year = {2022}, author = {Singh, A and Mehta, S and Yadav, S and Nagar, G and Ghosh, R and Roy, A and Chakraborty, A and Singh, IK}, title = {How to Cope with the Challenges of Environmental Stresses in the Era of Global Climate Change: An Update on ROS Stave off in Plants.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {23}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {35216108}, issn = {1422-0067}, support = {CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/ 15_003/0000433//Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech university of life Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; DNA Damage/physiology ; Humans ; Lipid Peroxidation/physiology ; Plants/*metabolism ; Reactive Oxygen Species/*metabolism ; Signal Transduction/physiology ; Stress, Physiological/*physiology ; }, abstract = {With the advent of human civilization and anthropogenic activities in the shade of urbanization and global climate change, plants are exposed to a complex set of abiotic stresses. These stresses affect plants' growth, development, and yield and cause enormous crop losses worldwide. In this alarming scenario of global climate conditions, plants respond to such stresses through a highly balanced and finely tuned interaction between signaling molecules. The abiotic stresses initiate the quick release of reactive oxygen species (ROS) as toxic by-products of altered aerobic metabolism during different stress conditions at the cellular level. ROS includes both free oxygen radicals {superoxide (O2[•-]) and hydroxyl (OH[-])} as well as non-radicals [hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and singlet oxygen ([1]O2)]. ROS can be generated and scavenged in different cell organelles and cytoplasm depending on the type of stimulus. At high concentrations, ROS cause lipid peroxidation, DNA damage, protein oxidation, and necrosis, but at low to moderate concentrations, they play a crucial role as secondary messengers in intracellular signaling cascades. Because of their concentration-dependent dual role, a huge number of molecules tightly control the level of ROS in cells. The plants have evolved antioxidants and scavenging machinery equipped with different enzymes to maintain the equilibrium between the production and detoxification of ROS generated during stress. In this present article, we have focused on current insights on generation and scavenging of ROS during abiotic stresses. Moreover, the article will act as a knowledge base for new and pivotal studies on ROS generation and scavenging.}, }
@article {pmid35215092, year = {2022}, author = {Bautista-Garfias, CR and Castañeda-Ramírez, GS and Estrada-Reyes, ZM and Soares, FEF and Ventura-Cordero, J and González-Pech, PG and Morgan, ER and Soria-Ruiz, J and López-Guillén, G and Aguilar-Marcelino, L}, title = {A Review of the Impact of Climate Change on the Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Nematode Infections in Small Ruminants and Wildlife in Tropical Conditions.}, journal = {Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {35215092}, issn = {2076-0817}, abstract = {Climate change is causing detrimental changes in living organisms, including pathogens. This review aimed to determine how climate change has impacted livestock system management, and consequently, what factors influenced the gastrointestinal nematodes epidemiology in small ruminants under tropical conditions. The latter is orientated to find out the possible solutions responding to climate change adverse effects. Climate factors that affect the patterns of transmission of gastrointestinal parasites of domesticated ruminants are reviewed. Climate change has modified the behavior of several animal species, including parasites. For this reason, new control methods are required for controlling parasitic infections in livestock animals. After a pertinent literature analysis, conclusions and perspectives of control are given.}, }
@article {pmid35214838, year = {2022}, author = {Mevy, JP and Biryol, C and Boiteau-Barral, M and Miglietta, F}, title = {The Optical Response of a Mediterranean Shrubland to Climate Change: Hyperspectral Reflectance Measurements during Spring.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {35214838}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Remote sensing techniques in terms of monitoring plants' responses to environmental constraints have gained much attention during recent decades. Among these constraints, climate change appears to be one of the major challenges in the Mediterranean region. In this study, the main goal was to determine how field spectrometry could improve remote sensing study of a Mediterranean shrubland submitted to climate aridification. We provided the spectral signature of three common plants of the Mediterranean garrigue: Cistus albidus, Quercus coccifera, and Rosmarinus officinalis. The pattern of these spectra changed depending on the presence of a neighboring plant species and water availability. Indeed, the normalized water absorption reflectance (R975/R900) tended to decrease for each species in trispecific associations (11-26%). This clearly indicates that multispecific plant communities will better resist climate aridification compared to monospecific stands. While Q. coccifera seemed to be more sensible to competition for water resources, C. albidus exhibited a facilitation effect on R. officinalis in trispecific assemblage. Among the 17 vegetation indices tested, we found that the pigment pheophytinization index (NPQI) was a relevant parameter to characterize plant-plant coexistence. This work also showed that some vegetation indices known as indicators of water and pigment contents could also discriminate plant associations, namely RGR (Red Green Ratio), WI (Water Index), Red Edge Model, NDWI1240 (Normalized Difference Water Index), and PRI (Photochemical Reflectance Index). The latter was shown to be linearly and negatively correlated to the ratio of R975/R900, an indicator of water status.}, }
@article {pmid35213811, year = {2022}, author = {Rabin, AS and Harlan, EA and Ambinder, AJ}, title = {Small Devices, Big Problems: Addressing the Global Warming Potential of Metered-Dose Inhalers.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {1090-1092}, doi = {10.1513/AnnalsATS.202202-131VP}, pmid = {35213811}, issn = {2325-6621}, support = {T32 HL007749/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Administration, Inhalation ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Metered Dose Inhalers ; Nebulizers and Vaporizers ; }, }
@article {pmid35212713, year = {2022}, author = {Collette, JC and Sommerville, KD and Lyons, MB and Offord, CA and Errington, G and Newby, ZJ and von Richter, L and Emery, NJ}, title = {Stepping up to the thermogradient plate: a data framework for predicting seed germination under climate change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {129}, number = {7}, pages = {787-794}, pmid = {35212713}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Germination/physiology ; Plant Dormancy ; Seeds/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Seed germination is strongly influenced by environmental temperatures. With global temperatures predicted to rise, the timing of germination for thousands of plant species could change, leading to potential decreases in fitness and ecosystem-wide impacts. The thermogradient plate (TGP) is a powerful but underutilized research tool that tests germination under a broad range of constant and alternating temperatures, giving researchers the ability to predict germination characteristics using current and future climates. Previously, limitations surrounding experimental design and data analysis methods have discouraged its use in seed biology research.<br><br>METHODS: Here, we have developed a freely available R script that uses TGP data to analyse seed germination responses to temperature. We illustrate this analysis framework using three example species: Wollemia nobilis, Callitris baileyi and Alectryon subdentatus. The script generates >40 germination indices including germination rates and final germination across each cell of the TGP. These indices are then used to populate generalized additive models and predict germination under current and future monthly maximum and minimum temperatures anywhere on the globe.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: In our study species, modelled data were highly correlated with observed data, allowing confident predictions of monthly germination patterns for current and future climates. Wollemia nobilis germinated across a broad range of temperatures and was relatively unaffected by predicted future temperatures. In contrast, C. baileyi and A. subdentatus showed strong seasonal temperature responses, and the timing for peak germination was predicted to shift seasonally under future temperatures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our experimental workflow is a leap forward in the analysis of TGP experiments, increasing its many potential benefits, thereby improving research predictions and providing substantial information to inform management and conservation of plant species globally.}, }
@article {pmid35212084, year = {2022}, author = {Bringloe, TT and Wilkinson, DP and Goldsmit, J and Savoie, AM and Filbee-Dexter, K and Macgregor, KA and Howland, KL and McKindsey, CW and Verbruggen, H}, title = {Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {11}, pages = {3711-3727}, pmid = {35212084}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; }, abstract = {The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.}, }
@article {pmid35211787, year = {2022}, author = {Mawa, Z and Hossain, MY and Hasan, MR and Rahman, MA and Tanjin, S and Ohtomi, J}, title = {Life history traits of Mystus vittatus in the Ganges River, Bangladesh: recommendation for its sustainable management considering climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {5}, pages = {927-943}, pmid = {35211787}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; Bangladesh ; *Catfishes ; Climate Change ; Female ; *Life History Traits ; Male ; Reproduction ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Freshwater catfishes are regarded primarily as a source of food and sport, so they are highly valuable economically. We comprehensively studied life history features of Mystus vittatus, including sex ratio (SR), population structure, growth pattern, condition, form factor (a3.0), sexual maturity (Lm), spawning season, fecundity, mortality (i.e., total mortality (Z), natural-mortality (MW), and fishing mortality (F)), optimum catchable length (Lopt), length at first capture (Lc), and environmental factors (temperature and rainfall) with management policies from the Ganges River during July 2017 to June 2018. SR (1:1.48) differed noticeably from the expected 1:1 ratio (p < 0.05). Total length (TL) ranged from 6.80-16.00 cm for males and 6.53-18.80 cm for females. The growth was negative allometric for both sexes. Fulton's condition factor was the best one and mean relative weight showed no significant difference from 100 for both sexes that indicates balanced population. Lm was 9.60, 9.70, and 8.80 cm based on the gonadosomatic index (GSI), logistic, and maximum length (Lmax), respectively. Spawning season was April to September and the peak was May to July. Fecundity varied from 5942 to 49,852 (mean ± SD, 11,898 ± 5028) and a positively correlated with TL and BW. Z was 1.80 year[-1], Mw was 0.97 year[-1], and F was 0.83 year[-1]. Lopt was 11.14 cm (TL) and Lc was ~ 8.47 cm (TL). Temperature and rainfall both were significantly related with GSI and suitable range of temperature and rainfall for spawning of M. vittatus was 28-34 °C and 200-390 mm, respectively. Long data series pointed that average air temperature was increasing and rainfall was decreasing. By considering all of the above parameters, we can take the proper management actions for M. vittatus and other freshwater catfishes on the Indian sub-continent, to ensure long-term self-sustainability and sustainable harvest for the benefit of fishers and communities.}, }
@article {pmid35211437, year = {2022}, author = {El Khayat, M and Halwani, DA and Hneiny, L and Alameddine, I and Haidar, MA and Habib, RR}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change and Heat Stress on Farmworkers' Health: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {782811}, pmid = {35211437}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Child ; Climate Change ; Farmers ; *Heat Stress Disorders ; Heat-Shock Response ; Humans ; *Transients and Migrants ; }, abstract = {Due to the continuous rise of global temperatures and heatwaves worldwide as a result of climate change, concerns for the health and safety of working populations have increased. Workers in the food production chain, particularly farmworkers, are especially vulnerable to heat stress due to the strenuous nature of their work, which is performed primarily outdoors under poor working conditions. At the cross-section of climate change and farmworkers' health, a scoping review was undertaken to summarize the existing knowledge regarding the health impacts associated with climate change and heat stress, guide future research toward better understanding current and future climate change risks, and inform policies to protect the health and safety of agricultural workers. A systematic search of 5 electronic databases and gray literature websites was conducted to identify relevant literature published up until December 2021. A total of 9045 records were retrieved from the searches, of which 92 articles were included in the final review. The majority of the reviewed articles focused on heat-related illnesses (n = 57) and kidney diseases (n = 28). The risk factors identified in the reviewed studies included gender, dehydration, heat strain, wearing inappropriate clothing, workload, piece-rate payment, job decision latitude, and hot environmental conditions. On the other hand, various protective and preventive factors were identified including drinking water, changing work hours and schedule of activities, wearing appropriate clothing, reducing soda consumption, taking breaks in shaded or air-conditioned areas, and increasing electrolyte consumption in addition to improving access to medical care. This review also identified various factors that are unique to vulnerable agricultural populations, including migrant and child farmworkers. Our findings call for an urgent need to expand future research on vulnerable agricultural communities including migrant workers so as to develop effective policies and interventions that can protect these communities from the effects of heat stress.}, }
@article {pmid35211129, year = {2021}, author = {Tominaga, A and Ito, A and Sugiura, T and Yamane, H}, title = {How Is Global Warming Affecting Fruit Tree Blooming? "Flowering (Dormancy) Disorder" in Japanese Pear (Pyrus pyrifolia) as a Case Study.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {787638}, pmid = {35211129}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Recent climate change has resulted in warmer temperatures. Warmer temperatures from autumn to spring has negatively affected dormancy progression, cold (de)acclimation, and cold tolerance in various temperate fruit trees. In Japan, a physiological disorder known as flowering disorder, which is an erratic flowering and bud break disorder, has recently emerged as a serious problem in the production of the pome fruit tree, Japanese (Asian) pear (Pyrus pyrifolia Nakai). Due to global warming, the annual temperature in Japan has risen markedly since the 1990s. Surveys of flowering disorder in field-grown and greenhouse-grown Japanese pear trees over several years have indicated that flowering disorder occurs in warmer years and cultivation conditions, and the risk of flowering disorder occurrence is higher at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. Susceptibility to flowering disorder is linked to changes in the transcript levels of putative dormancy/flowering regulators such as DORMANCY-ASSOCIATED MADS-box (DAM) and FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT). On the basis of published studies, we conclude that autumn-winter warm temperatures cause flowering disorder through affecting cold acclimation, dormancy progression, and floral bud maturation. Additionally, warm conditions also decrease carbohydrate accumulation in shoots, leading to reduced tree vigor. We propose that all these physiological and metabolic changes due to the lack of chilling during the dormancy phase interact to cause flowering disorder in the spring. We also propose that the process of chilling exposure rather than the total amount of chilling may be important for the precise control of dormancy progression and robust blooming, which in turn suggests the necessity of re-evaluation of the characteristics of cultivar-dependent chilling requirement trait. A full understanding of the molecular and metabolic regulatory mechanisms of both dormancy completion (floral bud maturation) and dormancy break (release from the repression of bud break) will help to clarify the physiological basis of dormancy-related physiological disorder and also provide useful strategies to mitigate or overcome it under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid35210245, year = {2022}, author = {Rashid, A}, title = {Yonder: International medical graduates, genetics at end-of-life, climate change, and paediatric antibiotic prescribing in China.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {72}, number = {716}, pages = {127}, pmid = {35210245}, issn = {1478-5242}, }
@article {pmid35206433, year = {2022}, author = {Graham, H and Harrison, A and Lampard, P}, title = {Public Perceptions of Climate Change and Its Health Impacts: Taking Account of People's Exposure to Floods and Air Pollution.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {35206433}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Climate Change ; *Floods ; Humans ; Public Opinion ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change-related exposures such as flooding and ambient air pollution place people's health at risk. A representative UK survey of adults investigated associations between reported flooding and air pollution (in the participants' local area, by the participant personally, and/or by family and close friends) and climate change concerns (CCC) and perceptions of its health impacts (PIH). In regression analyses controlling for socio-demographic factors and health status, exposure was associated with greater CCC and more negative PIH. Compared to those with low CCC, participants who reported local-area exposure were significantly more likely to be fairly (OR 2.07, 95%CI 1.26, 3.40) or very concerned (OR 3.40, 95%CI 2.02, 5.71). Odds of greater CCC were higher for those reporting personal and/or family exposure ('fairly concerned': OR 2.83, 95%CI 1.20, 6.66; 'very concerned': OR 4.11, 95%CI 1.69, 10.05) and for those reporting both local and personal/family exposure ('fairly concerned': OR 3.35, 95%CI 1.99, 5.63; 'very concerned': OR 6.17, 95%CI 3.61, 10.55). For PIH, local exposure significantly increased the odds of perceiving impacts as 'more bad than good' (1.86, 95%CI 1.22, 2.82) or 'entirely bad' (OR 1.88; 95%CI 1.13, 3.13). Our study suggests that public awareness of climate-related exposures in their local area, together with personal exposures and those of significant others, are associated with heightened concern about climate change and its health impacts.}, }
@article {pmid35205187, year = {2022}, author = {Morley, SA and Souster, TA and Vause, BJ and Gerrish, L and Peck, LS and Barnes, DKA}, title = {Benthic Biodiversity, Carbon Storage and the Potential for Increasing Negative Feedbacks on Climate Change in Shallow Waters of the Antarctic Peninsula.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {35205187}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {core funding to the British Antarctic Survey//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {The importance of cold-water blue carbon as biological carbon pumps that sequester carbon into ocean sediments is now being realised. Most polar blue carbon research to date has focussed on deep water, yet the highest productivity is in the shallows. This study measured the functional biodiversity and carbon standing stock accumulated by shallow-water (<25 m) benthic assemblages on both hard and soft substrata on the Antarctic Peninsula (WAP, 67° S). Soft substrata benthic assemblages (391 ± 499 t C km[-2]) contained 60% less carbon than hard substrata benthic assemblages (648 ± 909). In situ observations of substrata by SCUBA divers provided estimates of 59% hard (4700 km) and 12% soft (960 km) substrata on seasonally ice-free shores of the Antarctic Peninsula, giving an estimate of 253,000 t C at 20 m depth, with a sequestration potential of ~4500 t C year[-1]. Currently, 54% of the shoreline is permanently ice covered and so climate-mediated ice loss along the Peninsula is predicted to more than double this carbon sink. The steep fjordic shorelines make these assemblages a globally important pathway to sequestration, acting as one of the few negative (mitigating) feedbacks to climate change. The proposed WAP marine protected area could safeguard this ecosystem service, helping to tackle the climate and biodiversity crises.}, }
@article {pmid35202234, year = {2022}, author = {Martins, I and Soares, J and Neuparth, T and Barreiro, AF and Xavier, C and Antunes, C and Santos, MM}, title = {Prioritizing the Effects of Emerging Contaminants on Estuarine Production under Global Warming Scenarios.}, journal = {Toxics}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {35202234}, issn = {2305-6304}, support = {UIDB/04423/2020 and UIDP/04423/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000035]//FEDER/ ; 0725_NOR_WATER_1_P/(POCTEP) 2014-2020//INTERREG/ ; 10/SI/2016 - I&amp;DT Empresarial//ValorMar/ ; }, abstract = {Due to non-linear interactions, the effects of contaminant mixtures on aquatic ecosystems are difficult to assess, especially under temperature rise that will likely exacerbate the complexity of the responses. Yet, under the current climatic crisis, assessing the effects of water contaminants and temperature is paramount to understanding the biological impacts of mixtures of stressors on aquatic ecosystems. Here, we use an ecosystem model followed by global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to prioritize the effects of four single emerging contaminants (ECs) and their mixture, combined with two temperature rise scenarios, on the biomass production of a NE Atlantic estuary. Scenarios ran for 10 years with a time-step of 0.1 days. The results indicate that macroinvertebrate biomass was significantly explained by the effect of each single EC and by their mixture but not by temperature. Globally, the most adverse effects were induced by two ECs and by the mixture of the four ECs, although the sensitivity of macroinvertebrates to the tested scenarios differed. Overall, the present approach is useful to prioritize the effects of stressors and assess the sensitivity of the different trophic groups within food webs, which may be of relevance to support decision making linked to the sustainable management of estuaries and other aquatic systems.}, }
@article {pmid35199917, year = {2022}, author = {Stewart, PS and Voskamp, A and Santini, L and Biber, MF and Devenish, AJM and Hof, C and Willis, SG and Tobias, JA}, title = {Global impacts of climate change on avian functional diversity.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {673-685}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13830}, pmid = {35199917}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {NE/I028068/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; NE/P004512/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to drive geographical range shifts, leading to fluctuations in species richness (SR) worldwide. However, the effect of these changes on functional diversity (FD) remains unclear, in part because comprehensive species-level trait data are generally lacking at global scales. Here, we use morphometric and ecological traits for 8268 bird species to estimate the impact of climate change on avian FD. We show that future bird assemblages are likely to undergo substantial shifts in trait structure, with a magnitude of change greater than predicted from SR alone, and a direction of change varying according to geographical location and trophic guild. For example, our models predict that FD of insect predators will increase at higher latitudes with concurrent losses at mid-latitudes, whereas FD of seed dispersing birds will fluctuate across the tropics. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to drive continental-scale shifts in avian FD with implications for ecosystem function and resilience.}, }
@article {pmid35198773, year = {2022}, author = {Mekonnen, Z}, title = {Intra-household gender disparity: effects on climate change adaptation in Arsi Negele district, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {e08908}, pmid = {35198773}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Women empowerment in agriculture influences adaptation capacity to climate change impacts. Women are disempowered in rural households. This affects household's adaptive capacity to climate change negatively. Household survey, focus group discussion, key informant interview and workshop were used to track stakeholders' opinions on gender disparity in agriculture and policy issues. The objective of the study was to assess the gender parity index in agriculture, resource governance patterns and how these impact the capacity to climate change adaptation. The results show wives were imparity with their husbands. The parity gap on ownership, access to, and decision-making power over agricultural equipment was as wide as 59% and this affects women's adaptation capacity to climate change impacts. Indeed, 94% of the coupled households have got their land by redistribution and inheritance land acquisition forms by which both forms of acquiring land favored the husband. Half of the respondent households acknowledged that they have already acquired certification for their farmlands. However, the certification was mostly given by the names of husbands and in few cases by both. Certification of farmlands by the name of a wife and a husband has built confidence on ownership and manage their farmlands. This has helped a household to better adapt climate change impacts. Gender disparity in agricultural productive resources combined with policy and cultural distortions could exacerbate household's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. This indicates the need for gender mainstreaming in climate change policy reforms and formulation so as to empower women and build their adaptive capacity.}, }
@article {pmid35198622, year = {2022}, author = {Nwobodo, CE and Nwokolo, B and Iwuchukwu, JC and Ohagwu, VA and Ozioko, RI}, title = {Determinants of Ruminant Farmers' Use of Sustainable Production Practices for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Enugu State, Nigeria.}, journal = {Frontiers in veterinary science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {735139}, pmid = {35198622}, issn = {2297-1769}, abstract = {A sustainable ruminant production system ensures economically viable livestock systems that meet the current and future demands of animal products as well as the environmental safety of current and future generations. The study analyzed the determinants of ruminant farmers' use of sustainable production practices for climate change adaptation and mitigation in Enugu State, Nigeria. Multistage sampling procedure was used to select ninety six (96) ruminant farmers that constituted the sample for the study. Semi-structured interview schedule with open ended questions was used in data collection. Data were analyzed using multiple regression and Pearson Moment Correlation statistics. Access to veterinary services (t = 2.056, p = 0.044), monthly household income (t = 3.582, p = 0.001) and annual income from ruminant production (t = -2.635, p = 0.011) were socio-economic factors that significantly influenced use of sustainable practices. The adjusted R- square implies that the three factors were able to explain 24% of variance in use of sustainable practices. There is a significant positive correlation (r = 0.426, p = 0.000) between knowledge level of farmers and their use of sustainable production practices. Schemes for financial inclusion such as payment for ecosystem services can spur farmers to adopt mitigation strategies. Improved climate change knowledge can enhance ruminant farmer's resilience to the increasing impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35197745, year = {2022}, author = {Hussain, I and Ali, M and Ghoneim, AM and Shahzad, K and Farooq, O and Iqbal, S and Nawaz, F and Ahmad, S and Bárek, V and Brestic, M and Al Obaid, S and Fahad, S and Danish, S and Taban, S and Akça, H and Datta, R}, title = {Improvement in growth and yield attributes of cluster bean through optimization of sowing time and plant spacing under climate change scenario.}, journal = {Saudi journal of biological sciences}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {781-792}, pmid = {35197745}, issn = {1319-562X}, abstract = {Cluster bean (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba L.) yield has plateaued due to reduction in rainfall and rise in temperature. Therefore, its production cycle could not get appropriate water and temperature. It becomes important to standardize the sowing time and plant spacing of cluster beans in changing climate scenarios to get higher productivity. Therefore, a field study was conducted in 2019 at the Research area of MNS-University of Agriculture, Multan, Pakistan to evaluate the effect of four sowing times (15th May, 1st June, 15th June, and 1st July) and three plant spacings (10, 12 and 15 cm) on crop growth, yield, and physiological functions of cluster bean genotype BR-2017 under split plot arrangement under randomized complete block design (RCBD) with three replications. The sowing times (15th May, 1st June, 15th June, and 1st July) were placed in the main plot, while plant spacing (10, 12 and 15 cm) was maintained in subplots. The significant effect of sowing time and plant spacing was observed on pod plant[-1], pod length, grain yield, and 1000-grain weight. Results showed that 1st June sowing performed better over 15th May, 15th June, and 1st July, while plant spacing 15 cm about in all sowing times showed higher results on growth and yield parameters of cluster bean over plant spacing 10, 12, and 15 cm. The 1st June sowing time at 15 cm plant spacing showed 8.0, 22.7, and 28.5% higher grains pod[-1] than 15th May, 15th June, and 1st July sowing, respectively. Maximum grain yield was observed on 1st June in all three spacings (10, 12, and 15 cm). The chord diagram indicates that the crop has received optimum environmental conditions when sown 1st June over other sowing times. In conclusion, 1st June sowing with 15 cm plant spacing could be a good option to achieve maximum productivity of cluster bean under changing climate scenario.}, }
@article {pmid35197275, year = {2022}, author = {Sindall, R and Mecrow, T and Queiroga, AC and Boyer, C and Koon, W and Peden, AE}, title = {Drowning risk and climate change: a state-of-the-art review.}, journal = {Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {185-191}, pmid = {35197275}, issn = {1475-5785}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Disasters ; *Drowning/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {Drowning and climate change are both significant global health threats, yet little research links climate change to drowning risk. Research into the epidemiology, risk factors and preventive strategies for unintentional drowning in high-income and in low-income and middle-income countries has expanded understanding, but understanding of disaster and extreme weather-related drowning needs research focus. As nation states and researchers call for action on climate change, its impact on drowning has been largely ignored. This state-of-the-art review considers existing literature on climate change as a contributor to changes in drowning risks globally. Using selected climate change-related risks identified by the World Meteorological Organization and key risks to the Sustainable Development Goals as a framework, we consider the drowning risks associated with heat waves, hydrometeorological hazards, drought and water scarcity, damaged infrastructure, marine ecosystem collapse, displacement, and rising poverty and inequality. Although the degree of atmospheric warming remains uncertain, the impact of climate change on drowning risk is already taking place and can no longer be ignored. Greater evidence characterising the links between drowning and climate change across both high-income and low-income and middle-income contexts is required, and the implementation and evaluation of drowning interventions must reflect climate change risks at a local level, accounting for both geographical variation and the consequences of inequality. Furthermore, collaboration between the injury prevention, disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation sectors is crucial to both prevent climate change from stalling progress on preventing drowning and further advocate for climate change mitigation as a drowning risk reduction mechanism.}, }
@article {pmid35196891, year = {2022}, author = {Macheka, L and Mudiwa, T and Chopera, P and Nyamwanza, A and Jacobs, P}, title = {Linking Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Nutrition Outcomes: A Conceptual Framework.}, journal = {Food and nutrition bulletin}, volume = {43}, number = {2}, pages = {201-212}, doi = {10.1177/03795721221078362}, pmid = {35196891}, issn = {1564-8265}, support = {216034/Z/19/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The relationship between climate adaptation strategies and nutrition security is poorly understood and often unclear. Although several adaptation strategies have been implemented to mitigate the impact of climate change, there is still a lack of conclusive evidence or studies on the interrelationships between adopted climate change adaptation strategies and nutrition outcomes.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a conceptual framework that links climate change, adaptation strategies and nutrition and to show the indicators that can be used to assess the impact of climate adaptation strategies on nutrition.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: The proposed conceptual framework was developed through a literature review.<br><br>RESULTS: A generic conceptual framework that could be used to assess the impact of adopted climate change adaptation strategies on nutrition outcomes was developed. The framework consists of 5 key elements: agro-food system, context characteristics, adaptation strategies, climatic shocks and stress, and system output. The principles used in designing the conceptual framework include systems approach, contingency theory, and system output.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The developed framework offers a channel to evaluate adopted climate change adaptation strategies and their impact on nutrition outcomes. Such a conceptual framework can also be used in selecting and identifying more suitable climate adaptation strategies given specific contextual environments.}, }
@article {pmid35195785, year = {2023}, author = {Haji, M and Bakuza, JS}, title = {Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Rondo Dwarf Galago in Coastal Forests, Tanzania.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {71}, number = {1}, pages = {145-158}, pmid = {35195785}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Galago ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Tanzania ; Forests ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Negative effects of climate change on organisms and their habitats pose significant conservation challenges especially for species already under siege from other threats like habitat loss, pollution and diseases. This study assessed the extent to which the Rondo dwarf galago (Paragalago rondoensis), an endangered primate in the coastal forests in eastern Tanzania is threatened by climate change. Past and projected temperature and precipitation records from Tanzania Meteorological Authority were overlaid with P. rondoensis distribution range to assess the species exposure to climate extremes. Traits predisposing it to climate change were also obtained from published literature and experts on the organism's biology to determine its sensitivity. The P. rondoensis vulnerability to climate change was obtained by feeding exposure and sensitivity data into Natureserve's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) software. Results indicated that most of Rondo galago's habitat and distribution range will be exposed to a temperature increase of 1 to 1.3 °C by 2050, which if combined with other threats, is likely to further endanger the species survival. Due to its diet specialization on insects, which are moisture-dependent, any extreme decrease in humidity will reduce its diet availability thereby threatening the species further. Moreover, Rondo galago's limited habitats and distribution range in the East African tropical coastal forests, raises the species threat level. Rondo galago's conservation should be enhanced through creation of corridors to facilitate its possible shifts to conducive and safer habitats in the event of extreme weather. Climate change aspects should also be integrated into the species conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid35195666, year = {2022}, author = {Obradovich, N and Minor, K}, title = {Identifying and Preparing for the Mental Health Burden of Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA psychiatry}, volume = {79}, number = {4}, pages = {285-286}, doi = {10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2021.4280}, pmid = {35195666}, issn = {2168-6238}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid35194388, year = {2022}, author = {Karki, G and Bhatta, B and Devkota, NR and Acharya, RP and Kunwar, RM}, title = {Climate change adaptation (CCA) research in Nepal: implications for the advancement of adaptation planning.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {18}, pmid = {35194388}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change has become one of the most compelling fields of empirical research over the last couple of decades, partly due to its socio-economic impacts. Using a meta-analysis of 235 peer-reviewed articles published between January 2010 and July 2020, this paper appraises climate change adaptation (CCA) research in Nepal and draws lessons for future adaptation planning. The number of research is observed to have increased significantly in recent years (2015-2020) although there is no consistent pattern over the review period and at the thematic level. Findings submit that the agriculture and food security has the highest number of publications (37%) followed by gender equality and social inclusion (18%) and forest, biodiversity and watershed management (16%). There are no studies found in rural and urban settlement theme. Geographic distribution of CCA studies revealed that over 40% studies were carried out from central Nepal, while no study was conducted in ten districts of eastern and western Nepal. The study focus was also discrete, and the perception and attitude and impact assessment of climate change were common agendas; however, the drivers of change and options for adaptation were understudied. CCA with multipronged initiatives provide a broader understanding of dynamics and governance of climate change that not only affects rural livelihoods, but also influences regional and global environments and biodiversity.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-021-09991-0.}, }
@article {pmid35194299, year = {2023}, author = {Ikehi, ME and Ifeanyieze, FO and Onu, FM and Ejiofor, TE and Nwankwo, CU}, title = {Assessing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and agricultural innovation systems in the Niger Delta.}, journal = {GeoJournal}, volume = {88}, number = {1}, pages = {209-224}, pmid = {35194299}, issn = {1572-9893}, abstract = {Climate change and its impacts on agriculture have been widely discussed at national and global levels. An important aspect of the discussion has been adaptation/mitigation approaches. Consequently, several strategies have been suggested as measures to ensure agriculture remains productively profitable. However, food security especially in critical times, such as the lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic proved to be a challenge even for regions naturally endowed for agriculture. The study evaluated research recommended strategies, and further examined the innovativeness of the strategies in fostering sustainable agricultural innovation system (AIS) in the Niger Delta. The study relied on both secondary and primary data; analysed 129 previous studies and gathered responses from 282 extension agents. The study introduces a method for assessing the innovativeness of strategies by calculating their rated values on five traits. Findings revealed the issues and implications of adopting most recommended strategies and the place of most strategies in fostering AIS. The study highlights the possible reasons why farmers fail to adopt most strategies as suggested by studies on climate change in the region. Based on the findings, recommendations were made on the way forward. The study adds to the scanty discussion of climate change and AIS at regional levels, particularly in the climate change prone and oil rich Niger Delta region. The study offers a novel approach for scoring innovations in agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid35194240, year = {2022}, author = {Brändle, T and Bruchez, PA and Colombier, C and Baur, M and Hohl, L}, title = {Do the COVID-19 Crisis, Ageing and Climate Change Put Swiss Fiscal Sustainability at Risk?.}, journal = {Inter economics}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, pages = {48-55}, pmid = {35194240}, issn = {0020-5346}, abstract = {The ongoing coronavirus pandemic crisis as well as demographic and climate change pose major challenges for public finances. This article deals with the implications of demographic trends in Switzerland, i.e. the progressive ageing of the population and its impact on the country's public finances in the long run. As the analysis shows, the brunt of the demographic burden is borne by the old-age pension scheme, health and long-term care. This article also addresses the financial ramifications of the COVID-19 crisis and shows the need for economic policy action over the longer term to ensure the sustainability of public finances in Switzerland. Furthermore, a qualitative assessment of climate change is included, as it constitutes an additional major long-term challenge for public finances.}, }
@article {pmid35194131, year = {2022}, author = {Gaponenko, I and Rohat, G and Goyette, S and Paruch, P and Kasparian, J}, title = {Smooth velocity fields for tracking climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {2997}, pmid = {35194131}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Describing the spatial velocity of climate change is essential to assessing the challenge of natural and human systems to follow its pace by adapting or migrating sufficiently fast. We propose a fully-determined approach, "MATCH", to calculate a realistic and continuous velocity field of any climate parameter, without the need for ad hoc assumptions. We apply this approach to the displacement of isotherms predicted by global and regional climate models between 1950 and 2100 under the IPCC-AR5 RCP 8.5 emission scenario, and show that it provides detailed velocity patterns especially at the regional scale. This method thus favors comparisons between models as well as the analysis of regional or local features. Furthermore, the trajectories obtained using the MATCH approach are less sensitive to inter-annual fluctuations and therefore allow us to introduce a trajectory regularity index, offering a quantitative perspective on the discussion of climate sinks and sources.}, }
@article {pmid35192868, year = {2022}, author = {Rothenberg, ME}, title = {The climate change hypothesis for the allergy epidemic.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {149}, number = {5}, pages = {1522-1524}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2022.02.006}, pmid = {35192868}, issn = {1097-6825}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The health consequences of climate change are being increasingly recognized. Herein, the climate change hypothesis is put forth as a substantial contributor to the growing global allergy epidemic. A call for deeper research and action on the impact of climate change on various aspects of allergic disease mechanisms, exacerbation, and prevalence is imperative.}, }
@article {pmid35192700, year = {2022}, author = {Zandalinas, SI and Balfagón, D and Gómez-Cadenas, A and Mittler, R}, title = {Plant responses to climate change: metabolic changes under combined abiotic stresses.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {73}, number = {11}, pages = {3339-3354}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erac073}, pmid = {35192700}, issn = {1460-2431}, support = {2110017//National Science Foundation/ ; RYC2020-029967-I//Ramon y Cajal contract/ ; //Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/physiology ; *Plant Breeding ; Plant Development ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of abiotic stress combinations that negatively impact plants and pose a serious threat to crop yield and food supply. Plants respond to episodes of stress combination by activating specific physiological and molecular responses, as well as by adjusting different metabolic pathways, to mitigate the negative effects of the stress combination on plant growth, development, and reproduction. Plants synthesize a wide range of metabolites that regulate many aspects of plant growth and development, as well as plant responses to stress. Although metabolic responses to individual abiotic stresses have been studied extensively in different plant species, recent efforts have been directed at understanding metabolic responses that occur when different abiotic factors are combined. In this review we examine recent studies of metabolomic changes under stress combination in different plants and suggest new avenues for the development of stress combination-resilient crops based on metabolites as breeding targets.}, }
@article {pmid35191005, year = {2022}, author = {Barnes, PW and Robson, TM and Neale, PJ and Williamson, CE and Zepp, RG and Madronich, S and Wilson, SR and Andrady, AL and Heikkilä, AM and Bernhard, GH and Bais, AF and Neale, RE and Bornman, JF and Jansen, MAK and Klekociuk, AR and Martinez-Abaigar, J and Robinson, SA and Wang, QW and Banaszak, AT and Häder, DP and Hylander, S and Rose, KC and Wängberg, S&#xc5; and Foereid, B and Hou, WC and Ossola, R and Paul, ND and Ukpebor, JE and Andersen, MPS and Longstreth, J and Schikowski, T and Solomon, KR and Sulzberger, B and Bruckman, LS and Pandey, KK and White, CC and Zhu, L and Zhu, M and Aucamp, PJ and Liley, JB and McKenzie, RL and Berwick, M and Byrne, SN and Hollestein, LM and Lucas, RM and Olsen, CM and Rhodes, LE and Yazar, S and Young, AR}, title = {Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {275-301}, pmid = {35191005}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Ozone/chemistry ; *Ozone Depletion ; Stratospheric Ozone ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol under the United Nations Environment Programme evaluates effects on the environment and human health that arise from changes in the stratospheric ozone layer and concomitant variations in ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth's surface. The current update is based on scientific advances that have accumulated since our last assessment (Photochem and Photobiol Sci 20(1):1-67, 2021). We also discuss how climate change affects stratospheric ozone depletion and ultraviolet radiation, and how stratospheric ozone depletion affects climate change. The resulting interlinking effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change are assessed in terms of air quality, carbon sinks, ecosystems, human health, and natural and synthetic materials. We further highlight potential impacts on the biosphere from extreme climate events that are occurring with increasing frequency as a consequence of climate change. These and other interactive effects are examined with respect to the benefits that the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments are providing to life on Earth by controlling the production of various substances that contribute to both stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35190658, year = {2022}, author = {Bam, S and Ott, JP and Butler, JL and Xu, L}, title = {Belowground mechanism reveals climate change impacts on invasive clonal plant establishment.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {2860}, pmid = {35190658}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Bromus/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation/methods ; Grassland ; Introduced Species ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Rain ; Seedlings/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate change and disturbance can alter invasion success of clonal plants by differentially affecting the clonal traits influencing their establishment as young plants. Clonal traits related to the vegetative reproduction of native Pascopyrum smithii and non-native Bromus inermis grass seedlings were evaluated under altered precipitation frequencies and a single grazing event. Pascopyrum smithii maintained similar vegetative reproduction under three simulated precipitation frequencies whereas B. inermis vegetative reproduction declined as precipitation became more intermittent. Vegetative reproduction of the non-native B. inermis was greater than the native P. smithii under all simulated precipitation frequencies except the most intermittent scenario. A single grazing event did not affect either species' response to intra-annual precipitation variability but did slightly reduce their clonal growth and increase their bud dormancy. In young plants, clonal traits of the invasive grass favored its superior expansion and population growth compared to the native grass except under the most severe climate change scenario. Grassland restoration using native P. smithii seeds would be successful in most years due to its resilient clonal growth in a changing climate. Clonal infrastructure development in young plants is critical to clonal plant establishment and persistence in a changing climate and under disturbed conditions.}, }
@article {pmid35189239, year = {2022}, author = {Gao, Z and Zhang, QH and Xie, YD and Wang, Q and Dzakpasu, M and Xiong, JQ and Wang, XC}, title = {A novel multi-objective optimization framework for urban green-gray infrastructure implementation under impacts of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {825}, number = {}, pages = {153954}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153954}, pmid = {35189239}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Floods ; *Rain ; }, abstract = {Frequent urban flooding disasters can cause severe economic and property losses. Accordingly, the construction of sponge city has become critical to alleviating urban flooding. However, the functional and structural integration of Green Infrastructure (GI) and Gray Drainage Facility (GDF) is still a matter of concern. This study proposed a novel implementation framework for GI and GDF synchronization optimization (G-GSOIF) based on the SWMM and SUSTAIN models, and used data from Beilin District in Xi'an, China to verify the effects. The results show that the spatiotemporal integrated optimization design of GI and GDF proves to be effective in stormwater management. The total investment was reduced by 16.7% and economic benefit was increased by 15.4% based on disaster risk control, and the utilization rate of rainwater resources exceeded 40%. The Staged optimization model (SSOM) based on the SUSTAIN model established in the G-GSOIF was demonstrated to effectively cope with the impact of future climate change by adjusting and optimizing the design scheme dynamically in different simulation scenarios. Integrated LID (I-LID) measures are conducive for simulation of large catchment areas, and have the same implementation effect as distributed LID measures. The results of this study could support decision-making for urban stormwater management and sponge city construction.}, }
@article {pmid35189219, year = {2022}, author = {Di Nuzzo, L and Benesperi, R and Nascimbene, J and Papini, A and Malaspina, P and Incerti, G and Giordani, P}, title = {Little time left. Microrefuges may fail in mitigating the effects of climate change on epiphytic lichens.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {825}, number = {}, pages = {153943}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153943}, pmid = {35189219}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Lichens ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already causing considerable reductions in biodiversity in all terrestrial ecosystems. These consequences are expected to be exacerbated in biomes that are particularly exposed to change, such as those in the Mediterranean, and in certain groups of more sensitive organisms, such as epiphytic lichens. These poikylohydric organisms find suitable light and water conditions on trunks under the tree canopy. Despite their small size, epiphytic communities contribute significantly to the functionality of forest ecosystems. In this work, we surveyed epiphytic lichen communities in a Mediterranean area (Sardinia, Italy) and hypothesized that 1) the effect of microclimate on lichens at tree scale is mediated by the functional traits of these organisms and that 2) micro-refuge trees with certain morphological characteristics can mitigate the negative effects of future climate change. Results confirm the first hypothesis, while the second is only partially supported, suggesting that the capability of specific trees to host specific conditions may not be sufficient to maintain the diversity and ecosystem functionality of lichen communities in the Mediterranean.}, }
@article {pmid35188956, year = {2023}, author = {Ayalon, L and Roy, S and Aloni, O and Keating, N}, title = {A Scoping Review of Research on Older People and Intergenerational Relations in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {The Gerontologist}, volume = {63}, number = {5}, pages = {945-958}, doi = {10.1093/geront/gnac028}, pmid = {35188956}, issn = {1758-5341}, support = {217/20//Israel Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Aged ; *Intergenerational Relations ; Climate Change ; Attitude ; *Ageism ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In view of the inherited temporal dimension of climate change, this study aims to highlight diverse intergenerational effects and coping strategies by examining the state of literature on older people and intergenerational relations in the context of climate change.<br><br>RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A scoping review of peer-reviewed scientific literature was conducted. We searched the following bibliographical data sets: PubMed, Web of Science, and APA PsycNet in addition to a snowballing search based on Google Scholar. The primary search was conducted between September 22, 2021 and September 26, 2021, using variations of the search terms: older people AND intergenerational AND climate change. Two independent raters classified the articles using prespecified inclusion and exclusion criteria.<br><br>RESULTS: In total, 20 articles were maintained for data extraction. Articles reflect 2 poles in relation to older people and intergenerational relations in the context of climate change. The first emphasizes intergenerational conflicts and differences, whereas the second stresses solidarity and transmission of knowledge and practices between the generations.<br><br>DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Both older and younger people are affected by age-based discrimination in the context of climate change. Generational differences in energy consumption and attitudes toward climate change exist. Nonetheless, these can be overcome by stressing the solidarity between the generations and the ability of older people to contribute to the climate change movement as well as by the ability of both young and old to transmit knowledge and practices related to sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid35186977, year = {2021}, author = {Dobson, GP}, title = {Wired to Doubt: Why People Fear Vaccines and Climate Change and Mistrust Science.}, journal = {Frontiers in medicine}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {809395}, pmid = {35186977}, issn = {2296-858X}, abstract = {We all want to be right in our thinking. Vaccine hesitancy and global warming denial share much in common: (1) both are threats to personal, community and global health, (2) action is contingent on co-operation and social policy, and (3) public support relies on trust in science. The irony is, however, as the science has become more convincing, public opinion has become more divided. A number of early polls showed that ~70% of people supported COVID-19 vaccine use and global warming, ~20% adopted a wait-and-see approach, and ~10% were staunch objectors. Although these percentages are approximate, what factors are responsible for the differences in engagement, doubt and distrust? How can we reduce the consensus gap? One approach is to return to grass roots and provide a brief history of the issues, understand the difference between fact and opinion, truth and falsehood, the problem of certainty, and how scientific consensus is reached. To doubt is a healthy response to new information, and it too has a scientific basis. Doubt and distrust reside in that region of the brain called the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, which is responsible for suppressing unwanted representations. Bridging the consensus gap requires shifting human thinking patterns from doubt to belief, and belief to action. Education and improved public messaging are key, and social media providers require urgent oversight or regulation to remove false and harmful/dangerous content from our digital lives. Delays to vaccinate and failure to reduce greenhouse gases will dramatically change the way we live. The new norm may be more deadly COVID variants, strained healthcare systems, extreme weather patterns, diminished food supply, delays in goods and services, damage to world's economies and widespread global instability.}, }
@article {pmid35185993, year = {2022}, author = {Bai, H and Xiao, D and Wang, B and Liu, L and Tang, J}, title = {Simulation of Wheat Response to Future Climate Change Based on Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 6 Multi-Model Ensemble Projections in the North China Plain.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {829580}, pmid = {35185993}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Global climate change results in more extreme temperature events, which poses a serious threat to wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP). Assessing the potential impact of temperature extremes on crop growth and yield is an important prerequisite for exploring crop adaptation measures to deal with changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during wheat sensitive period on grain yield at four representative sites over the NCP using Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model driven by the climate projections from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) during two future periods of 2031-2060 (2040S) and 2071-2100 (2080S) under societal development pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios. We found that extreme temperature stress had significantly negative impacts on wheat yield. However, increased rainfall and the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration could partly compensate for the yield loss caused by extreme temperature events. Under future climate scenarios, the risk of exposure to heat stress around flowering had no great change but frost risk in spring increased slightly mainly due to warming climate accelerating wheat development and advancing the flowering time to a cooler period of growing season. Wheat yield loss caused by heat and frost stress increased by -0.6 to 4.2 and 1.9-12.8% under SSP585_2080S, respectively. We also found that late sowing and selecting cultivars with a long vegetative growth phase (VGP) could significantly compensate for the negative impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields in the south of NCP. However, selecting heat resistant cultivars in the north NCP and both heat and frost resistant cultivars in the central NCP may be a more effective way to alleviate the negative effect of extreme temperature on wheat yields. Our findings showed that not only heat risk should be concerned under climate warming, but also frost risk should not be ignored.}, }
@article {pmid35182189, year = {2022}, author = {Russell, AR and van Kooten, GC and Izett, JG and Eiswerth, ME}, title = {Damage Functions and the Social Cost of Carbon: Addressing Uncertainty in Estimating the Economic Consequences of Mitigating Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {69}, number = {5}, pages = {919-936}, pmid = {35182189}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Models, Economic ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Mitigating the effects of human-induced climate change requires the reduction of greenhouse gases. Policymakers must balance the need for mitigation with the need to sustain and develop the economy. To make informed decisions regarding mitigation strategies, policymakers rely on estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC), which represents the marginal damage from increased emissions; the SCC must be greater than the marginal abatement cost for mitigation to be economically desirable. To determine the SCC, damage functions translate projections of carbon and temperature into economic losses. We examine the impact that four damage functions commonly employed in the literature have on the SCC. Rather than using an economic growth model, we convert the CO2 pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) into temperature projections using a three-layer, energy balance model and subsequently estimate damages under each RCP using the damage functions. We estimate marginal damages for 2020-2100, finding significant variability in SCC estimates between damage functions. Despite the uncertainty in choosing a specific damage function, comparing the SCC estimates to estimates of marginal abatement costs from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) indicates that reducing emissions beyond RCP6.0 is economically beneficial under all scenarios. Reducing emissions beyond RCP4.5 is also likely to be economically desirable under certain damage functions and SSP scenarios. However, future work must resolve the uncertainty surrounding the form of damage function and the SSP estimates of marginal abatement costs to better estimate the economic impacts of climate change and the benefits of mitigating it.}, }
@article {pmid35182188, year = {2023}, author = {Soltani, L and Mellah, T}, title = {Exploring farmers' adaptation strategies to water shortage under climate change in the Tunisian semi-arid region.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {71}, number = {1}, pages = {74-86}, pmid = {35182188}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Humans ; *Farmers ; *Climate Change ; Water ; Farms ; Agriculture/methods ; }, abstract = {This study explores the adaptation strategies to water shortage at the farm level in the Tunisian semi-arid region and investigates factors determining the farmers' behavior. In this area, climate change exacerbates the scarcity of water resources, groundwater suffers from saline intrusion, and the reinforcement of surface water depends on the water transfer decision. Based on 81 farmers survey data collected in Diar El Hajjaj irrigated area, the typology of farmers was constructed using the multivariate technique combining the clustering method and principal component analysis.The results show that two groups of the surveyed farmers use more intensive water resources to grow high-value crops and operate toward a commercial farming system. They set up either an accommodating or an expansive plan. The remaining sampled farmers are smallholder farmers who endure critical resource constraints. They tend to adopt a contractive strategy and face a real risk of farming abandonment. Additional actions should be taken at the farm level as well at the national policy level to preserve the farming system under water scarcity due to climate change effects.}, }
@article {pmid35181711, year = {2022}, author = {Struck, J and Bliedtner, M and Strobel, P and Taylor, W and Biskop, S and Plessen, B and Klaes, B and Bittner, L and Jamsranjav, B and Salazar, G and Szidat, S and Brenning, A and Bazarradnaa, E and Glaser, B and Zech, M and Zech, R}, title = {Central Mongolian lake sediments reveal new insights on climate change and equestrian empires in the Eastern Steppes.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {2829}, pmid = {35181711}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The repeated expansion of East Asian steppe cultures was a key driver of Eurasian history, forging new social, economic, and biological links across the continent. Climate has been suggested as important driver of these poorly understood cultural expansions, but paleoclimate records from the Mongolian Plateau often suffer from poor age control or ambiguous proxy interpretation. Here, we use a combination of geochemical analyses and comprehensive radiocarbon dating to establish the first robust and detailed record of paleohydrological conditions for Lake Telmen, Mongolia, covering the past ~ 4000 years. Our record shows that humid conditions coincided with solar minima, and hydrological modeling confirms the high sensitivity of the lake to paleoclimate changes. Careful comparisons with archaeological and historical records suggest that in the vast semi-arid grasslands of eastern Eurasia, solar minima led to reduced temperatures, less evaporation, and high biomass production, expanding the power base for pastoral economies and horse cavalry. Our findings suggest a crucial link between temperature dynamics in the Eastern Steppe and key social developments, such as the emergence of pastoral empires, and fuel concerns that global warming enhances water scarcity in the semi-arid regions of interior Eurasia.}, }
@article {pmid35180955, year = {2022}, author = {Said, RM and Nassar, SE}, title = {Mortality, energy reserves, and oxidative stress responses of three native freshwater mussels to temperature as an indicator of potential impacts of climate change: A laboratory experimental approach.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {104}, number = {}, pages = {103154}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2021.103154}, pmid = {35180955}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Animals ; Antioxidants ; Bivalvia/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Egypt ; *Fresh Water ; Lipid Peroxidation ; Mortality ; Oxidative Stress ; Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Due to rapid global climate change, the temperature of streams and rivers is predicted to be increased, influencing aquatic organisms, particularly bivalve species. To better understand their response to elevated temperature, three native species of freshwater mussels namely, Coelatura aegyptiaca, Mutela rostrata and Chambardia rubens were exposed for 21 days to four temperature treatments (18 - 25-30 and 35 °C). Mortality was recorded on a daily basis over the experiment. A variety of responses including biomarkers at the cellular level and whole organism level were examined in surviving organisms after 21 days. In response to exposure to thermal stress, three mussel species exposed to 35 °C showed 100% mortality after 21 days. However, exposure to 25 °C and 30 °C induced significant decreases in adenosine triphosphate (ATP) production and energy reserves (Protein, lipid and glycogen) compared to the control group maintained at 18 °C. Temperature-induced oxidative stress, indicated by the greatest reduction in total antioxidant capacity (TAC) and elevated levels of lipid peroxidation products. As energy generation decreased and oxidative stress increased, trends were for condition indexes (CI) and survival to decrease. In comparison, C. rubens has a higher thermal tolerance than C. aegyptiaca, and M. rostrata. The responses reported herein, along with the predicted rates of climate warming, indicated that freshwater mussels in the Nile River, Egypt will be negatively impacted by climate change and may incur significant losses in the coming years.}, }
@article {pmid35179539, year = {2022}, author = {Borgå, K and McKinney, MA and Routti, H and Fernie, KJ and Giebichenstein, J and Hallanger, I and Muir, DCG}, title = {The influence of global climate change on accumulation and toxicity of persistent organic pollutants and chemicals of emerging concern in Arctic food webs.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {1544-1576}, doi = {10.1039/d1em00469g}, pmid = {35179539}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {Food Chain ; Climate Change ; Persistent Organic Pollutants ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity/analysis ; Arctic Regions ; *Environmental Pollutants/toxicity/analysis ; Water ; }, abstract = {This review summarizes current understanding of how climate change-driven physical and ecological processes influence the levels of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and contaminants of emerging Arctic concern (CEACs) in Arctic biota and food webs. The review also highlights how climate change may interact with other stressors to impact contaminant toxicity, and the utility of modeling and newer research tools in closing knowledge gaps on climate change-contaminant interactions. Permafrost thaw is influencing the concentrations of POPs in freshwater ecosystems. Physical climate parameters, including climate oscillation indices, precipitation, water salinity, sea ice age, and sea ice quality show statistical associations with POPs concentrations in multiple Arctic biota. Northward range-shifting species can act as biovectors for POPs and CEACs into Arctic marine food webs. Shifts in trophic position can alter POPs concentrations in populations of Arctic species. Reductions in body condition are associated with increases in levels of POPs in some biota. Although collectively understudied, multiple stressors, including contaminants and climate change, may act to cumulatively impact some populations of Arctic biota. Models are useful for predicting the net result of various contrasting climate-driven processes on POP and CEAC exposures; however, for some parameters, especially food web changes, insufficient data exists with which to populate such models. In addition to the impact of global regulations on POP levels in Arctic biota, this review demonstrates that there are various direct and indirect mechanisms by which climate change can influence contaminant exposure, accumulation, and effects; therefore, it is important to attribute POP variations to the actual contributing factors to inform future regulations and policies. To do so, a broad range of habitats, species, and processes must be considered for a thorough understanding and interpretation of the consequences to the distribution, accumulation, and effects of environmental contaminants. Given the complex interactions between climate change, contaminants, and ecosystems, it is important to plan for long-term, integrated pan-Arctic monitoring of key biota and ecosystems, and to collect ancillary data, including information on climate-related parameters, local meteorology, ecology, and physiology, and when possible, behavior, when carrying out research on POPs and CEACs in biota and food webs of the Arctic.}, }
@article {pmid35175854, year = {2022}, author = {, }, title = {Climate Change and Health Security: A Special Feature in Health Security.}, journal = {Health security}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1089/hs.2022.29003.cfp}, pmid = {35175854}, issn = {2326-5108}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35174946, year = {2022}, author = {Nascimento, G and Câmara, T and Arnan, X}, title = {Critical thermal limits in ants and their implications under climate change.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {97}, number = {4}, pages = {1287-1305}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12843}, pmid = {35174946}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ants/physiology ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Critical thermal limits (CTLs) constrain the performance of organisms, shaping their abundance, current distributions, and future distributions. Consequently, CTLs may also determine the quality of ecosystem services as well as organismal and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. As some of the most ubiquitous animals in terrestrial ecosystems, ants are important members of ecological communities. In recent years, an increasing body of research has explored ant physiological thermal limits. However, these CTL data tend to centre on a few species and biogeographical regions. To encourage an expansion of perspectives, we herein review the factors that determine ant CTLs and examine their effects on present and future species distributions and ecosystem processes. Special emphasis is placed on the implications of CTLs for safeguarding ant diversity and ant-mediated ecosystem services in the future. First, we compile, quantify, and categorise studies on ant CTLs based on study taxon, biogeographical region, methodology, and study question. Second, we use this comprehensive database to analyse the abiotic and biotic factors shaping ant CTLs. Our results highlight how CTLs may affect future distribution patterns and ecological performance in ants. Additionally, we identify the greatest remaining gaps in knowledge and create a research roadmap to promote rapid advances in this field of study.}, }
@article {pmid35173186, year = {2022}, author = {Hasegawa, T and Wakatsuki, H and Ju, H and Vyas, S and Nelson, GC and Farrell, A and Deryng, D and Meza, F and Makowski, D}, title = {A global dataset for the projected impacts of climate change on four major crops.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {58}, pmid = {35173186}, issn = {2052-4463}, abstract = {Reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change on crop production are critical for assessing the sustainability of food systems. Global, regional, and site-specific crop simulation studies have been conducted for nearly four decades, representing valuable sources of information for climate change impact assessments. However, the wealth of data produced by these studies has not been made publicly available. Here, we develop a global dataset by consolidating previously published meta-analyses and data collected through a new literature search covering recent crop simulations. The new global dataset builds on 8703 simulations from 202 studies published between 1984 and 2020. It contains projected yields of four major crops (maize, rice, soybean, and wheat) in 91 countries under major emission scenarios for the 21st century, with and without adaptation measures, along with geographical coordinates, current temperature and precipitation levels, projected temperature and precipitation changes. This dataset provides a solid basis for a quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on crop production and will facilitate the rapidly developing data-driven machine learning applications.}, }
@article {pmid35172126, year = {2022}, author = {Shipley, JR and Twining, CW and Mathieu-Resuge, M and Parmar, TP and Kainz, M and Martin-Creuzburg, D and Weber, C and Winkler, DW and Graham, CH and Matthews, B}, title = {Climate change shifts the timing of nutritional flux from aquatic insects.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {1342-1349.e3}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2022.01.057}, pmid = {35172126}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; Ecosystem ; *Insecta ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change can decouple resource supply from consumer demand, with the potential to create phenological mismatches driving negative consequences on fitness. However, the underlying ecological mechanisms of phenological mismatches between consumers and their resources have not been fully explored. Here, we use long-term records of aquatic and terrestrial insect biomass and egg-hatching times of several co-occurring insectivorous species to investigate temporal mismatches between the availability of and demand for nutrients that are essential for offspring development. We found that insects with aquatic larvae reach peak biomass earlier in the season than those with terrestrial larvae and that the relative availability of omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 LCPUFAs) to consumers is almost entirely dependent on the phenology of aquatic insect emergence. This is due to the 4- to 34-fold greater n-3 LCPUFA concentration difference in insects emerging from aquatic as opposed to terrestrial habitats. From a long-sampled site (25 years) undergoing minimal land use conversion, we found that both aquatic and terrestrial insect phenologies have advanced substantially faster than those of insectivorous birds, shifting the timing of peak availability of n-3 LCPUFAs for birds during reproduction. For species that require n-3 LCPUFAs directly from diet, highly nutritious aquatic insects cannot simply be replaced by terrestrial insects, creating nutritional phenological mismatches. Our research findings reveal and highlight the increasing necessity of specifically investigating how nutritional phenology, rather than only overall resource availability, is changing for consumers in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35171904, year = {2022}, author = {de Jongh, EJ and Harper, SL and Yamamoto, SS and Wright, CJ and Wilkinson, CW and Ghosh, S and Otto, SJG}, title = {One Health, One Hive: A scoping review of honey bees, climate change, pollutants, and antimicrobial resistance.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {e0242393}, pmid = {35171904}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {ATP Binding Cassette Transporter, Subfamily B/genetics/metabolism ; Animals ; Anti-Infective Agents/metabolism/*pharmacology ; Bees ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; Drug Resistance, Bacterial/*drug effects ; Environmental Pollutants/*toxicity ; Insect Proteins/genetics/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change and increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) together threaten the last 50 years of public health gains. Honey bees are a model One Health organism to investigate interactions between climate change and AMR. The objective of this scoping review was to examine the range, extent, and nature of published literature on the relationship between AMR and honey bees in the context of climate change and environmental pollutants. The review followed systematic search methods and reporting guidelines. A protocol was developed a priori in consultation with a research librarian. Resulting Boolean search strings were used to search Embase® via Ovid®, MEDLINE®, Scopus®, AGRICOLA™ and Web of Science™ databases. Two independent reviewers conducted two-stage screening on retrieved articles. To be included, the article had to examine honey bees, AMR, and either climate change or environmental pollution. Data, in accordance with Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines, were extracted from relevant articles and descriptively synthesized in tables, figures, and narrative form. A total of 22 articles met the inclusion criteria, with half of all articles being published in the last five years (n = 11/22). These articles predominantly investigated hive immunocompetence and multi-drug resistance transporter downregulation (n = 11/22), susceptibility to pests (n = 16/22), especially American foulbrood (n = 9/22), and hive product augmentation (n = 3/22). This review identified key themes and gaps in the literature, including the need for future interdisciplinary research to explore the link between AMR and environmental change evidence streams in honey bees. We identified three potential linkages between pollutive and climatic factors and risk of AMR. These interconnections reaffirm the necessity of a One Health framework to tackle global threats and investigate complex issues that extend beyond honey bee research into the public health sector. It is integral that we view these "wicked" problems through an interdisciplinary lens to explore long-term strategies for change.}, }
@article {pmid35171167, year = {2022}, author = {de Wit, CA and Vorkamp, K and Muir, D}, title = {Influence of climate change on persistent organic pollutants and chemicals of emerging concern in the Arctic: state of knowledge and recommendations for future research.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {1530-1543}, doi = {10.1039/d1em00531f}, pmid = {35171167}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {*Persistent Organic Pollutants ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Arctic Regions ; *Environmental Pollutants/analysis ; }, abstract = {Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have accumulated in polar environments as a result of long-range transport from urban/industrial and agricultural source regions in the mid-latitudes. Climate change has been recognized as a factor capable of influencing POP levels and trends in the Arctic, but little empirical data have been available previously. A growing number of recent studies have now addressed the consequences of climate change for the fate of Arctic contaminants, as reviewed and assessed by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). For example, correlations between POP temporal trends in air or biota and climate indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, have been found. Besides the climate indices, temperature, precipitation and sea-ice were identified as important climate parameters influencing POP levels in the Arctic environment. However, the physical changes are interlinked with complex ecological changes, including new species habitats and predator/prey relationships, resulting in a vast diversity of processes directly or indirectly affecting levels and trends of POPs. The reviews in this themed issue illustrate that the complexity of physical, chemical, and biological processes, and the rapid developments with regard to both climate change and chemical contamination, require greater interdisciplinary scientific exchange and collaboration. While some climate and biological parameters have been linked to POP levels in the Arctic, mechanisms underlying these correlations are usually not understood and need more work. Going forward there is a need for a stronger collaborative approach to understanding these processes due to high uncertainties and the incremental process of increasing knowledge of these chemicals. There is also a need to support and encourage community-based studies and the co-production of knowledge, including the utilization of Indigenous Knowledge, for interpreting trends of POPs in light of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35169164, year = {2022}, author = {Luo, Y and Yang, D and O'Connor, P and Wu, T and Ma, W and Xu, L and Guo, R and Lin, J}, title = {Dynamic characteristics and synergistic effects of ecosystem services under climate change scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {2540}, pmid = {35169164}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) supplies many ecosystem services (ESs) that maintain local and global pan-Asian populations and ecosystems. The effects of climate change on ES provision in the QTP will have far-reaching impacts on the region and the many downstream ecosystems and countries that depend on ESs from the "Third Pole". This study undertook a systematic assessment of ES provision, trade-offs and synergies between four ESs (raw material provision, water yield, soil retention, and carbon storage) under future climate scenarios (representative concentration pathway). The results show that: (1) the total amount of the four ESs on the QTP is predicted to increase from 1980 to 2100 for three climate change scenarios. (2) The spatial pattern of ESs on the QTP will not change significantly in the future, and the grassland and forest ESs in the central and southern regions are predicted to increase significantly. (3) The synergistic interactions among ESs were generally consistent at three spatial scales (10 km (pixel), county and watershed scales), but with more significant synergistic effects at the watershed scale. This demonstrates the necessity for the examination of scale-dependent ES dynamics and interactions. This study will supply a reference for further research on long-term ES assessments, especially the dynamic ES changes and the spatial scale dependency of the ES interactions, and provide evidence-based strategies for formulating ecosystem management on the QTP under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35167891, year = {2022}, author = {Saar, K and Nõges, P and Søndergaard, M and Jensen, M and Jørgensen, C and Reitzel, K and Jeppesen, E and Lauridsen, TL and Jensen, HS}, title = {The impact of climate change and eutrophication on phosphorus forms in sediment: Results from a long-term lake mesocosm experiment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {825}, number = {}, pages = {153751}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153751}, pmid = {35167891}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Eutrophication ; Geologic Sediments ; *Lakes ; *Phosphorus/analysis ; }, abstract = {Characteristics of bottom sediments in lake mesocosms 11 years after starting the experiment were studied in order to determine the effects of nutrient loading, temperature increase and vegetation type on concentration and vertical distribution of phosphorus (P) forms. The experimental setup consisted of 24 outdoor flow-through mesocosms with two nutrient treatments - low (L) and high (H) and 3 temperature levels - ambient (T0), heated by 2-4 °C (T1) and 3-6 °C (T2) in four replicates. Thickness of the organic sediment was measured and the sediment analysed for dry weight, organic matter, and P fractions (according to a sequential extraction scheme) and organic P compounds (by [31]P nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy). Higher nutrient loading led to increased sediment accumulation and higher concentration of total P and most P fractions, except P bound to aluminium and humic matter. The dominant vegetation type covaried with nutrient levels. Vertical gradients in Ca bound P and mobile P in low nutrient mesocosms was perhaps a result of P coprecipitation with calcite on macrophytes and P uptake by roots indicating that in macrophyte-rich lakes, plants can be important modifiers of early P diagenesis. Temperature alone did not significantly affect sediment accumulation rate but the interaction effect between nutrient and temperature treatments was significant. At high nutrient loading, sediment thickness decreased with increasing temperature, but at low nutrient loading, it increased with warming. The effect of warming on sediment composition became obvious only in nutrient enriched mesocosms showing that eutrophication makes shallow lake ecosystems more susceptible to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35162479, year = {2022}, author = {Brandão, J and Weiskerger, C and Valério, E and Pitkänen, T and Meriläinen, P and Avolio, L and Heaney, CD and Sadowsky, MJ}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Microbiota in Beach Sand and Water: Looking Ahead.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {35162479}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Bathing Beaches ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Feces/microbiology ; Humans ; *Microbiota ; *Sand ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Beach sand and water have both shown relevance for human health and their microbiology have been the subjects of study for decades. Recently, the World Health Organization recommended that recreational beach sands be added to the matrices monitored for enterococci and Fungi. Global climate change is affecting beach microbial contamination, via changes to conditions like water temperature, sea level, precipitation, and waves. In addition, the world is changing, and humans travel and relocate, often carrying endemic allochthonous microbiota. Coastal areas are amongst the most frequent relocation choices, especially in regions where desertification is taking place. A warmer future will likely require looking beyond the use of traditional water quality indicators to protect human health, in order to guarantee that waterways are safe to use for bathing and recreation. Finally, since sand is a complex matrix, an alternative set of microbial standards is necessary to guarantee that the health of beach users is protected from both sand and water contaminants. We need to plan for the future safer use of beaches by adapting regulations to a climate-changing world.}, }
@article {pmid35162378, year = {2022}, author = {Orsetti, E and Tollin, N and Lehmann, M and Valderrama, VA and Morató, J}, title = {Building Resilient Cities: Climate Change and Health Interlinkages in the Planning of Public Spaces.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {35162378}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/analysis ; Cities ; Climate Change ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Greenhouse gases emissions resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels are worsening air quality and affecting the climate system. While climate change impacts on meteorological variables affects air quality by altering the concentration and distribution of pollutants, air pollution significantly influences the climate, leading to negative impacts on human health. Due to the combination of high temperatures, air pollution, and high population density, cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The planning and design of public spaces aimed at climate change mitigation and adaptation can result in multiple co-benefits for human health, while reducing social inequalities. To address the major research gaps in the communication between health and planning experts, and the lack of capacity among public sectors and policy makers, it is necessary to promote capacity building and knowledge sharing between the planning and health sectors. The purpose of this article is to develop preliminary recommendations for a process that allows a comprehensive assessment of the interlinkages between climate and health, social, environmental, and economic vulnerabilities, and the quality of the urban spaces, to support local governments, policymakers, and education institutions in making informed decisions for public spaces. The methods applied were a literature review and interviews with experts.}, }
@article {pmid35158115, year = {2022}, author = {Choudhury, BU and Nengzouzam, G and Islam, A}, title = {Runoff and soil erosion in the integrated farming systems based on micro-watersheds under projected climate change scenarios and adaptation strategies in the eastern Himalayan mountain ecosystem (India).}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {309}, number = {}, pages = {114667}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114667}, pmid = {35158115}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Soil ; Soil Erosion ; }, abstract = {Land degradation caused by soil erosion (SE) in forests converted into cropland under climate change, particularly with increased rainfall intensity, is of great concern to the agricultural sustainability of the tropical mountain ecosystem. We evaluated the response of six hilly micro-watersheds (HMW) under different Integrated Farming Systems (IFSs) to SE in multi-model climate change scenarios using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. The IFSs were forestry (HMW1), abandoned shifting cultivation (HMW2), livestock with fodder crops (HMW3), agroforestry (HMW4), agri-horti-silvi-pastoral (HMW5), and horticulture (HMW6) established on a hilly slope (32.0-53.2%) of the eastern Himalayas (Meghalaya, India). The WEPP model was calibrated and validated with measured runoff and soil loss data of 24 years for each of the six IFSs. The projected annual SE (average) for all HMWs increased in all RCPs. The IFS based on shifting cultivation (HMW2) was the most vulnerable, with the highest percentage increase in SE (46-235%) compared to the baseline years (1976-2005) under RCP 8.5. The cultivated IFSs (HMW3 to HMW6) had 47.8-57.0% less runoff and 39.2-74.6% less soil loss than HMW2 under RCP 8.5. Of these, HMW6 followed by HMW4 and HMW5 were the most effective at minimizing soil loss. Simulation results showed a reduction in soil loss through adaptive strategies such as mulching with broom grasses, stones, field beans, and the introduction of subsurface drainage. Adoption of IFS based on horticulture and agroforestry with bio-mulching on steep slopes is an effective measure to control soil erosion in the eastern Himalaya (India).}, }
@article {pmid35157863, year = {2022}, author = {Martins, FB and Benassi, RB and Torres, RR and de Brito Neto, FA}, title = {Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on Eucalyptus plantations in South America.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {825}, number = {}, pages = {153820}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153820}, pmid = {35157863}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Eucalyptus ; Forestry ; *Global Warming ; Water ; }, abstract = {Even if the maximum global warming thresholds established by the Paris Agreement (1.5 and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels) are not exceeded, part of the climate system impacts resulting from this warming will be unavoidable. Forestry industries may be especially vulnerable, due to water shortages and the inability of growing certain forest species. An important part of the South American economy depends on the forestry sector (between 2 to ~7% of the Gross Domestic Product), mainly products derived from Eucalyptus, and so evaluating water availability considering the temperature thresholds established by the Paris Agreement will be fundamental. This study analyzed increased global average temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the impacts on water availability, using the Climatic Water Balance (CWB), and also studied possible impacts on Eucalyptus plantations in South America. Monthly temperature and precipitation data obtained from a set of simulations and projections of 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used, in four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The CWB was calculated for three periods: i) the pre-industrial period (1861-1890), ii) the present period (1975-2005), and iii) the period when temperature projections are expected to reach global average increases of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Due to changes in the CWB, with increases in actual evapotranspiration, water deficits, and a reduced water surplus, Eucalyptus plantations will be negatively affected and economically unfeasible for about 49.2% to 56.7% of all of South America, including a large part of the Amazon region, northern South America, midwestern and northeastern Brazil, western portions of Bolivia, Paraguay, central/northern Argentina, and northern Chile. Only some parts of South America, like the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, Uruguay, southern Argentina and Chile, Andes Mountain Range, and northwestern South America, will not suffer water deficits, and Eucalyptus plantations will be less impacted in these regions. Large parts of South America will suffer from changes in water availability. The future of the forestry industry, and especially Eucalyptus plantations in these regions, will depend on urgent and effective adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid35156593, year = {2022}, author = {Macdiarmid, JI}, title = {The food system and climate change: are plant-based diets becoming unhealthy and less environmentally sustainable?.}, journal = {The Proceedings of the Nutrition Society}, volume = {81}, number = {2}, pages = {162-167}, doi = {10.1017/S0029665121003712}, pmid = {35156593}, issn = {1475-2719}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Diet ; Diet, Healthy ; Diet, Vegetarian ; Humans ; Meat ; }, abstract = {A plant-based diet, which can include small amounts of meat, is the foundation for healthy sustainable diets, which will have co-benefits for health, climate and the environment. Studies show that some of the barriers to making this dietary change and reducing meat consumption are perceptions that plant-based diets are inconvenient, it takes too much time and skills to prepare meals and ingredients are expensive. The food environment is changing and the industry is responding with the exponential increase in the market of highly processed, convenient and cheap plant-based foods. This overcomes some of the barriers, but there is concern about whether they are healthy and environmentally sustainable. Plant-based foods have a halo effect around health and the environment, but many being produced are ultra-processed foods that are high in energy, fat, sugar and salt and have a higher environmental impact than minimally processed plant-based foods. The trend towards eating more highly processed plant-based convenience foods is a concern with regard to both public health and the targets set to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The 'modern day' plant-based diet emerging is very different to a more traditional one comprising pulses, vegetables and wholegrain. Studies show that those who are younger and have been a vegetarian for a shorter duration are eating significantly more ultra-processed plant-based foods. While there is a place for convenient, desirable and affordable plant-based food to encourage dietary change, care should be taken that this does not subconsciously set a path which may ultimately be neither healthy nor sustainable.}, }
@article {pmid35154613, year = {2021}, author = {Ouyang, Y and Wan, Y and Jin, W and Leininger, TD and Feng, G and Han, Y}, title = {Impact of climate change on groundwater resource in a region with a fast depletion rate: the Mississippi Embayment.}, journal = {Journal of water and climate change}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {2245-2255}, pmid = {35154613}, issn = {2408-9354}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Mississippi Embayment (ME) is one of the fastest groundwater depletion regions around the world, while the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources in the region are complex and basically unknown. Using the U.S. Geological Survey's Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) model, such a challenge was addressed through the base, wet, and dry simulation scenarios. Over the 137-year simulation period from 1870 to 2007, the cumulative aquifer storage depletions were 1.70 × 10[11], 1.73 × 10[11], and 1.67 × 10[11] m[3], respectively, for the base, dry, and wet scenarios. As compared with that of the base scenario, the aquifer storage depletions were only 1.76% more for the dry scenario and 1.8% less for the wet scenario. A multiple regression analysis showed that the aquifer storage depletion rate was controlled more by the groundwater pumping and stream leakage rates and less by the groundwater net recharge rate. Groundwater table variation in the forest land was much smaller than in the crop land. Results suggested that groundwater pumping rather than climate change was a key driving force of groundwater depletion in the ME. Our findings provide a useful reference to water resource managers, foresters, and farmers in the ME and around the world when developing their groundwater supply strategies.}, }
@article {pmid35152483, year = {2022}, author = {Smith, SJ and Mogensen, S and Barry, TN and Paccard, A and Jamniczky, HA and Barrett, RDH and Rogers, SM}, title = {Evolution of thermal physiology alters the projected range of threespine stickleback under climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {2312-2326}, doi = {10.1111/mec.16396}, pmid = {35152483}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Phenotype ; Quantitative Trait Loci/genetics ; *Smegmamorpha/genetics ; }, abstract = {Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict range shifts but could be unreliable under climate change scenarios because they do not account for evolution. The thermal physiology of a species is a key determinant of its range and thus incorporating thermal trait evolution into SDMs might be expected to alter projected ranges. We identified a genetic basis for physiological and behavioural traits that evolve in response to temperature change in natural populations of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Using these data, we created geographical range projections using a mechanistic niche area approach under two climate change scenarios. Under both scenarios, trait data were either static ("no evolution" models), allowed to evolve at observed evolutionary rates ("evolution" models) or allowed to evolve at a rate of evolution scaled by the trait variance that is explained by quantitative trait loci (QTL; "scaled evolution" models). We show that incorporating these traits and their evolution substantially altered the projected ranges for a widespread panmictic marine population, with over 7-fold increases in area under climate change projections when traits are allowed to evolve. Evolution-informed SDMs should improve the precision of forecasting range dynamics under climate change, and aid in their application to management and the protection of biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid35151734, year = {2022}, author = {Ingole, V and Dimitrova, A and Sampedro, J and Sacoor, C and Acacio, S and Juvekar, S and Roy, S and Moraga, P and Basagaña, X and Ballester, J and Antó, JM and Tonne, C}, title = {Local mortality impacts due to future air pollution under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {823}, number = {}, pages = {153832}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153832}, pmid = {35151734}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Climate Change ; Mortality, Premature ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; }, abstract = {The health impacts of global climate change mitigation will affect local populations differently. However, most co-benefits analyses have been done at a global level, with relatively few studies providing local level results. We aimed to quantify the local health impacts due to fine particles (PM2.5) under the governance arrangements embedded in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs1-5) under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5) in local populations of Mozambique, India, and Spain. We simulated the SSP-RCP scenarios using the Global Change Analysis Model, which was linked to the TM5-FASST model to estimate PM2.5 levels. PM2.5 levels were calibrated with local measurements. We used comparative risk assessment methods to estimate attributable premature deaths due to PM2.5 linking local population and mortality data with PM2.5-mortality relationships from the literature, and incorporating population projections under the SSPs. PM2.5 attributable burdens in 2050 differed across SSP-RCP scenarios, and sensitivity of results across scenarios varied across populations. Future attributable mortality burden of PM2.5 was highly sensitive to assumptions about how populations will change according to SSP. SSPs reflecting high challenges for adaptation (SSPs 3 and 4) consistently resulted in the highest PM2.5 attributable burdens mid-century. Our analysis of local PM2.5 attributable premature deaths under SSP-RCP scenarios in three local populations highlights the importance of both socioeconomic development and climate policy in reducing the health burden from air pollution. Sensitivity of future PM2.5 mortality burden to SSPs was particularly evident in low- and middle- income country settings due either to high air pollution levels or dynamic populations.}, }
@article {pmid35150628, year = {2022}, author = {Valente, M and Trentin, M and Ragazzoni, L and Barone-Adesi, F}, title = {Aligning disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the post-COP26 era.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {e76-e77}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00013-4}, pmid = {35150628}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters/prevention &amp; control ; Risk Reduction Behavior ; }, }
@article {pmid35149739, year = {2022}, author = {Vaissi, S}, title = {Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shifts.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {2348}, pmid = {35149739}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Iran ; Lizards/*physiology ; }, abstract = {This study explores the relationships between recent Iranian lizard species distributions and the observed climate, as well as potential future distributions of species. For this purpose, an ensemble of seven algorithms was used to forecast the distributions of 30 species for the recent and future (2070) based on the averages of 14 global climate models under optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios. Annual precipitation (n = 16) and annual mean temperature (n = 7) were identified as the most important variables in determining the distribution of 76.66% (23 out of 30) of the species. The consensus model predicts that the ranges of 83.33% of species (n = 25) have the potential to expand poleward at higher latitudes while preserving the majority of their recent distributions (except for four species). Furthermore, the ranges of the remaining species (n = 5) will be preserved at higher latitudes. However, they (n = 22) may contract slightly (n = 13) or excessively (n = 9) in the south of their distribution range at lower latitudes. These results indicate that species (N = 19) situated in mountainous areas such as the Zagros, Alborz, and Kopet Dagh may move or maintain their range at higher elevations as a result of future climate change. Finally, this study suggests that 30% of species (n = 9) may be threatened by future climate change and that they should be prioritized in conservation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid35149079, year = {2022}, author = {Chételat, J and McKinney, MA and Amyot, M and Dastoor, A and Douglas, TA and Heimbürger-Boavida, LE and Kirk, J and Kahilainen, KK and Outridge, PM and Pelletier, N and Skov, H and St Pierre, K and Vuorenmaa, J and Wang, F}, title = {Climate change and mercury in the Arctic: Abiotic interactions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {824}, number = {}, pages = {153715}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153715}, pmid = {35149079}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Lakes ; *Mercury/analysis ; }, abstract = {Dramatic environmental shifts are occuring throughout the Arctic from climate change, with consequences for the cycling of mercury (Hg). This review summarizes the latest science on how climate change is influencing Hg transport and biogeochemical cycling in Arctic terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. As environmental changes in the Arctic continue to accelerate, a clearer picture is emerging of the profound shifts in the climate and cryosphere, and their connections to Hg cycling. Modeling results suggest climate influences seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric Hg deposition. The clearest evidence of current climate change effects is for Hg transport from terrestrial catchments, where widespread permafrost thaw, glacier melt and coastal erosion are increasing the export of Hg to downstream environments. Recent estimates suggest Arctic permafrost is a large global reservoir of Hg, which is vulnerable to degradation with climate warming, although the fate of permafrost soil Hg is unclear. The increasing development of thermokarst features, the formation and expansion of thaw lakes, and increased soil erosion in terrestrial landscapes are increasing river transport of particulate-bound Hg and altering conditions for aquatic Hg transformations. Greater organic matter transport may also be influencing the downstream transport and fate of Hg. More severe and frequent wildfires within the Arctic and across boreal regions may be contributing to the atmospheric pool of Hg. Climate change influences on Hg biogeochemical cycling remain poorly understood. Seasonal evasion and retention of inorganic Hg may be altered by reduced sea-ice cover and higher chloride content in snow. Experimental evidence indicates warmer temperatures enhance methylmercury production in ocean and lake sediments as well as in tundra soils. Improved geographic coverage of measurements and modeling approaches are needed to better evaluate net effects of climate change and long-term implications for Hg contamination in the Arctic.}, }
@article {pmid35148945, year = {2022}, author = {Kovak, E and Blaustein-Rejto, D and Qaim, M}, title = {Genetically modified crops support climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {27}, number = {7}, pages = {627-629}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2022.01.004}, pmid = {35148945}, issn = {1878-4372}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural/genetics ; Greenhouse Effect ; Plants, Genetically Modified/genetics ; }, abstract = {Genetically modified (GM) crops can help reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In addition to possible decreases in production emissions, GM yield gains also mitigate land-use change and related emissions. Wider adoption of already-existing GM crops in Europe could result in a reduction equivalent to 7.5% of the total agricultural GHG emissions of Europe.}, }
@article {pmid35147382, year = {2022}, author = {Płaczkiewicz-Jankowska, E and Czupryniak, L and Gajos, G and Lewiński, A and Ruchała, M and Stasiak, M and Strojek, K and Szczepanek-Parulska, E and Wyleżoł, M and Ostrowska, L and Jankowski, P}, title = {Management of obesity in the times of climate change and COVID-19: an interdisciplinary expert consensus report.}, journal = {Polish archives of internal medicine}, volume = {132}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.20452/pamw.16216}, pmid = {35147382}, issn = {1897-9483}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Consensus ; Humans ; Obesity/complications/therapy ; *Quality of Life ; United States ; }, abstract = {Obesity is a chronic disease associated with increased metabolic and cardiovascular risk, excessive morbidity and mortality worldwide. The authors of the present consensus, clinicians representing medical specialties related to the treatment of obesity and its complications, reviewed a number of European and American guidelines, published mostly in 2019-2021, and summarized the principles of obesity management to provide a practical guidance considering the impact that increased adiposity poses to health. From a clinical perspective, the primary goal of obesity treatment is to prevent or slow down the progression of diseases associated with obesity, reduce metabolic and cardiovascular risk, and improve the quality of life by achieving adequate and stable weight reduction. However, obesity should be not only considered a disease requiring treatment in an individual patient, but also a civilization disease requiring preventive measures at the populational level. Despite the evident benefits, obesity management within the health care system-whether through pharmacotherapy or bariatric surgery-is only a symptomatic treatment, with all its limitations, and will not ultimately solve the problem of obesity. The important message is that available treatment options fail to correct the true drivers of the obesity pandemic. To this end, new solutions and efforts to prevent obesity in the populations are needed.}, }
@article {pmid35146574, year = {2022}, author = {Khajoei Nasab, F and Mehrabian, A and Mostafavi, H and Neemati, A}, title = {The influence of climate change on the suitable habitats of Allium species endemic to Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {3}, pages = {169}, pmid = {35146574}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Allium ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Iran ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Identifying the consequences of global warming on the potential distribution of plant taxa with high species diversity or a high proportion of endemic species is one of the critical steps in conservation biology. Here, present and future spatial distribution patterns of 20 Allium endemic species were predicted in Iran. In this regard, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and seven environmental factors were applied. In addition, optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios of 2050 and 2080 were also considered to predict the future spatial distributions. The results showed that annual mean temperature (BIO1), temperature annual range (P5-P6) (BIO7), soil organic carbon content, annual precipitation (BIO12), and depth of soil were the most important environmental variables affecting the distributions of the studied taxa. In total, the model predictions under the future scenarios represented that the suitable habitats for all Allium species endemic to Zagros except for A. saralicum and A. esfahanicum are most probably increased. In contrast, the suitable habitats for all species in Azerbaijan Plateau, Kopet Dagh-Khorassan region, and Alborz except for A. derderianum are most likely decreased under the future climate conditions. The present study indicates that the habitats of Alborz, Azarbaijan, and Kopet Dagh-Khorassan will be probably very fragile and vulnerable to climate change and most species will respond strongly negatively under applied scenarios, while Zagros species occupy new habitats by expanding their distributions. Therefore, determining conservation strategies for the species in these regions seems to be very important and high priority for decision makers.}, }
@article {pmid35146153, year = {2022}, author = {Razali, NEM and Ramli, RZ and Mohamed, H and Mat Zin, NA and Rosdi, F and Mat Diah, N}, title = {Identifying and validating game design elements in serious game guideline for climate change.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {e08773}, pmid = {35146153}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change can simply be defined as an increase in temperature, normally referred to as global warming. Recent studies have confirmed the failure of many climate communication efforts due to the one-directional transmission of information that has transformed the audience into passive consumers of information. The young generation tends to be avid gamers, thus serious games could be a suitable medium to increase climate change awareness in order to cultivate a better attitude towards nature among this group. However, very few games focus on carbon cycle fundamentals that are directly related to climate change. Existing climate change games have been unable to improve the quality of knowledge on environmental issues due to the lack of contextualization of the carbon cycle. Thus, the purpose of this study was to develop and verify a guideline of game design elements to assist game developers in developing a climate change game that can facilitate experiential learning on climate change based on the carbon cycle. The guideline consists of 13 game elements derived from previous studies. Seven experts from both game and environmental areas were selected to review the designed guideline. The experts were given two to six weeks to evaluate the guideline and were asked to rate and comment on each game element. At the end of the review, the experts' feedback and comments were analysed and scrutinised. The results showed positive feedback from all experts. The guideline was updated based on the experts' comments, and finally a total of 12 game elements for a climate change game remained. This guideline can be applied to develop a new climate change game. This paper discusses the validation of the guideline proposed for a climate change game design.}, }
@article {pmid35145191, year = {2022}, author = {Lima, VP and de Lima, RAF and Joner, F and Siddique, I and Raes, N and Ter Steege, H}, title = {Climate change threatens native potential agroforestry plant species in Brazil.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {2267}, pmid = {35145191}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the main drivers of species extinction in the twentyfirst-century. Here, we (1) quantify potential changes in species' bioclimatic area of habitat (BAH) of 135 native potential agroforestry species from the Brazilian flora, using two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and dispersal scenarios, where species have no ability to disperse and reach new areas (non-dispersal) and where species can migrate within the estimated BAH (full dispersal) for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. We then (2) assess the preliminary conservation status of each species based on IUCN criteria. Current and future potential habitats for species were predicted using MaxEnt, a machine-learning algorithm used to estimate species' probability distribution. Future climate is predicted to trigger a mean decline in BAH between 38.5-56.3% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 22.3-41.9% under the full dispersal scenario for 135 native potential agroforestry species. Additionally, we found that only 4.3% of the studied species could be threatened under the IUCN Red List criteria B1 and B2. However, when considering the predicted quantitative habitat loss due to climate change (A3c criterion) the percentages increased between 68.8-84.4% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 40.7-64.4% under the full dispersal scenario. To lessen such threats, we argue that encouraging the use of these species in rural and peri-urban agroecosystems are promising, complementary strategies for their long-term conservation.}, }
@article {pmid35144821, year = {2022}, author = {Boivin-Rioux, A and Starr, M and Chassé, J and Scarratt, M and Perrie, W and Long, Z and Lavoie, D}, title = {Harmful algae and climate change on the Canadian East Coast: Exploring occurrence predictions of Dinophysis acuminata, D. norvegica, and Pseudo-nitzschia seriata.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {112}, number = {}, pages = {102183}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2022.102183}, pmid = {35144821}, issn = {1878-1470}, mesh = {Canada ; Climate Change ; *Diatoms ; *Dinoflagellida ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a threat to human health, local economies, and coastal ecosystems. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) were fitted using a 24-y database in order to predict future occurrences of three distinct species of HABs on the Canadian East Coast, the dinoflagellates Dinophysis acuminata and D. norvegica, and the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia seriata. GAMMs produced for each species were combined with two downscaled climate simulations (MPI-ESM-LR and CanESM2) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 over the 21st century. D. acuminata, D. norvegica, and P. seriata GAMMs were fitted using sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature, with wind speed averaged over seven days added to the P. seriata model. GAMMs succeeded at various degrees at reproducing past HAB events, with D. acuminata and D. norvegica being accurately modelled, and P. seriata producing less precise model results. Both climate simulations lead to similar conclusions in regards to the spatio-temporal shift in occurrences of the three studied species. D. acuminata and D. norvegica blooms (≥ 1000 cells L [-] [1]) are predicted to increase in the future, whereas P. seriata bloom events (≥ 5000 cells L [-] [1]) will tend to stabilise/decrease overall on the Canadian East Coast. Dinophysis blooms are most likely to increase in the St. Lawrence Estuary. Pseudo-nitzschia blooms will move to the northeastern part of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and will increase in the Bay of Fundy/Gulf of Maine regions. On average, earlier blooms and larger seasonal windows of opportunity are predicted across all species investigated. We conclude that changes in D. acuminata, D. norvegica, and P. seriata bloom dynamics and their spatial distributions could threaten aquaculture industries and ecosystem health on Canada's East Coast in localities and during seasons which were not previously impacted by these species.}, }
@article {pmid35144694, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, R and Tang, X and Liu, J and Visbeck, M and Guo, H and Murray, V and Mcgillycuddy, C and Ke, B and Kalonji, G and Zhai, P and Shi, X and Lu, J and Zhou, X and Kan, H and Han, Q and Ye, Q and Luo, Y and Chen, J and Cai, W and Ouyang, H and Djalante, R and Baklanov, A and Ren, L and Brasseur, G and Gao, GF and Zhou, L}, title = {From concept to action: a united, holistic and One Health approach to respond to the climate change crisis.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {17}, pmid = {35144694}, issn = {2049-9957}, support = {21230780200//Scientific and Innovative Action Plan of Shanghai/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *One Health ; }, abstract = {It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the planet, which is seriously affecting the planetary health including human health. Adapting climate change should not only be a slogan, but requires a united, holistic action and a paradigm shift from crisis response to an ambitious and integrated approach immediately. Recognizing the urgent needs to tackle the risk connection between climate change and One Health, the four key messages and recommendations that with the intent to guide further research and to promote international cooperation to achieve a more climate-resilient world are provided.}, }
@article {pmid35143000, year = {2022}, author = {U-Din, S and Nazir, MS and Sarfraz, M}, title = {The climate change and stock market: catastrophes of the Canadian weather.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {29}, pages = {44806-44818}, pmid = {35143000}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {In the last few decades, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased in many parts of the world, including Canada, as a result of global warming. Climate warming in Canada is about double the magnitude of global warming; therefore, the effects of weather catastrophes are expected to be higher in Canada compared to other economies. This study explores the impact of weather catastrophes on the Canadian stock market over the period 1988-2016. A mix of accounting ratios and statistical tests is used to estimate the effects of the extreme weather events on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) composite and its subsector indices. A significant negative effect of the weather catastrophes on stock market returns and volatility is noticed a day after the extreme weather events. This effect is widespread in all sub-sectors of the market; IT and financial services sectors are the most impacted, while the consumer staples sector is the least. It is concluded that the impact of climate warming in Canada is higher and more widespread compared to other economies.}, }
@article {pmid35142006, year = {2022}, author = {Baldwin, JW and Garcia-Porta, J and Botero, CA}, title = {Phenotypic responses to climate change are significantly dampened in big-brained birds.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {939-947}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13971}, pmid = {35142006}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Birds/physiology ; Brain ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly altering local environments and threatening biodiversity throughout the world. Although many wildlife responses to this phenomenon appear largely idiosyncratic, a wealth of basic research on this topic is enabling the identification of general patterns across taxa. Here, we expand those efforts by investigating how avian responses to climate change are affected by the ability to cope with ecological variation through behavioural flexibility (as measured by relative brain size). After accounting for the effects of phylogenetic uncertainty and interspecific variation in adaptive potential, we confirm that although climate warming is generally correlated with major body size reductions in North American migrants, these responses are significantly weaker in species with larger relative brain sizes. Our findings suggest that cognition can play an important role in organismal responses to global change by actively buffering individuals from the environmental effects of warming temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid35140186, year = {2022}, author = {McDermott, A}, title = {News Feature: Climate change hastens disease spread across the globe.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {35140186}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35139427, year = {2022}, author = {Gillespie, E and Schramm, PJ and Hsu, J}, title = {US public health response to climate change for allergists-immunologists.}, journal = {Annals of allergy, asthma &amp; immunology : official publication of the American College of Allergy, Asthma, &amp; Immunology}, volume = {128}, number = {6}, pages = {626-628}, pmid = {35139427}, issn = {1534-4436}, support = {CC999999/ImCDC/Intramural CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Allergists ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid35138754, year = {2022}, author = {Van Bree, EM and Mattijsen, JC}, title = {[Call to integrate climate change in medical education].}, journal = {Nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde}, volume = {166}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {35138754}, issn = {1876-8784}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Curriculum ; *Education, Medical ; Humans ; Schools, Medical ; *Students, Medical ; }, abstract = {Climate change forms an urgent health threat and gains attention in global medical literature as well as in Dutch healthcare. Climate change, however, is still absent in medical education. Health professionals must acquire knowledge concerning the health effects of climate change and train the values, skills, capacities, and motivation necessary to contribute to climate adaptation and mitigation. Dutch medical schools pay little to no attention to the theme of climate change and health in their curricula. In contrast, recent findings reveal that 83% of medical students in the Netherlands want to learn more about the health effects of climate change and that 72% of students believe the topic should receive more attention in their curriculum. Various research papers that have contributed to an outline for the implementation of climate and health education are discussed in this paper. We urgently call on universities, educators, and students to realise its implementation.}, }
@article {pmid35138591, year = {2022}, author = {Dietz, WH and Pryor, S}, title = {How Can We Act to Mitigate the Global Syndemic of Obesity, Undernutrition, and Climate Change?.}, journal = {Current obesity reports}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {61-69}, pmid = {35138591}, issn = {2162-4968}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Food Supply ; Humans ; *Malnutrition/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Obesity/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Syndemic ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The goal of this manuscript is to identify dietary and active transport strategies that reduce greenhouse gases and obesity, and thereby mitigate the effects of climate change on crop yields and micronutrient content.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: This report builds on our earlier publication that described the Global Syndemic of Obesity, Undernutrition, and Climate Change. We focus here on the contributions that the USA makes to the Global Syndemic and the policy solutions necessary to reduce the effects of the transport and food and agriculture systems on greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation. A recent study suggests that people are interested and ready to address local solutions to climate change. Changing the individual behaviors that sustain the US transport and food and agriculture systems is the first step to the broader engagement necessary to build the political will that to achieve institutional, municipal, state, and federal policy.}, }
@article {pmid35138418, year = {2022}, author = {Novosel, S and Prangenberg, C and Wirtz, DC and Burger, C and Welle, K and Kabir, K}, title = {[Climate change: how surgery contributes to global warming].}, journal = {Chirurgie (Heidelberg, Germany)}, volume = {93}, number = {6}, pages = {579-585}, pmid = {35138418}, issn = {2731-698X}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Operating Rooms ; Water ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Surgery as an important part of the healthcare sector contributes to environmental pollution and therefore to the climate crisis. The aim of this review is to create an overview of the current data situation and possibilities for improvement.<br><br>METHODS: A literature search was performed in PubMed/MEDLINE using the following five terms: "carbon footprint and surgery", "climate change and surgery", "waste and surgery" and "greening the operating room" focusing on energy, waste, water and anesthesia.<br><br>RESULTS: The greatest part of emissions in surgery is generated by the use of energy. The operating rooms (OR) need 3-6 times more energy than the other hospital rooms. Of the total hospital waste 20-30% is produced during operations, which is particularly due to the increasing use of disposable articles and 50-90% of waste classified as hazardous is incorrectly sorted. The disposal of this waste is not only more environmentally harmful but also much more expensive. The processing of surgical items by autoclaving consumes large amounts of water. Modern sterilization methods, for example using plasma could be future alternatives. Up to 20% of volatile nonmetabolized anesthetic agents are vented into the stratosphere and destroy the ozone layer. Intravenous anesthetic drugs should be used whenever possible instead. The choice of operating method can also contribute to the environmental impact of an operation.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The surgical disciplines are a&#xa0;relevant producer of environmental pollutants. Through diverse interdisciplinary approaches surgery can also contribute to protecting the environment.}, }
@article {pmid35137310, year = {2022}, author = {Deng, X and Hu, S and Zhan, C}, title = {Attribution of vegetation coverage change to climate change and human activities based on the geographic detectors in the Yellow River Basin, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {29}, pages = {44693-44708}, pmid = {35137310}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2020ZD0009//Major Science and Technology Projects of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region/ ; 41971232//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Quantitatively, analyzing the driving mechanism of vegetation coverage change is of important significance for regional ecological environment evaluation and protection. Based on time series NDVI data and meteorological data of the Yellow River Basin (Inner Mongolia Section), the trend and significance of climate factors and vegetation coverage in the YRB (IMS) and four sub-regions (the Hetao Irrigation district, the Ten Tributaries region, the Hunhe river basin, and the Dahei river basin) from 2000 to 2018 were ascertained. We used geographic detectors to quantitatively analyze the effects of detection factors on vegetation coverage change. The results indicated that the spatial pattern of vegetation variation and climate change had obvious spatial heterogeneity. During 2000-2018, the regions with vegetation improvement (72.87%) were much greater than that with degradation (26.55%) in the YRB (IMS). Annual precipitation change (4.55%) was a key driving factor to the vegetation coverage change in the YRB (IMS). Among the four sub-regions, the land use conversion type demonstrated the largest explanatory power, but the q values of the four sub-regions were different from each other. The results of the interaction showed that land use change and annual precipitation change were the major driving factors that influenced regional vegetation coverage change. This study has an important reference value for improving the basin's ecological environment.}, }
@article {pmid35137265, year = {2022}, author = {McKinley, IG and West, JM and Hardie, SML}, title = {A Risk Management Perspective on Climate Change: Lessons Learned from the Nuclear Industry.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {69}, number = {5}, pages = {835-846}, pmid = {35137265}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Industry ; *Radioactive Waste ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Management ; }, abstract = {Despite the widely acknowledged role of the anthropogenic drivers of climate change, there has been little success in developing a clear overview of the strengths and weaknesses of counter-measures or developing a consensus on their application. Problems with conventional approaches arise from the strongly coupled, multidisciplinary issues involved and the long timescales (centuries or more) over which some key processes operate. Here we outline an alternative approach based on experience gained in risk assessment for an area with similar challenges-the geological disposal of radioactive waste. Utilization of such risk assessment approaches and tools to facilitate a holistic, top-down synthesis of the interactions between the key features, events and processes driving climate change and constraining responses to it, are illustrated. We especially focus on visual presentations that encourage dialog between both specialists and non-technical stakeholders. These can thus form a basis to assist balancing responses in terms of energy policy, modified socio-economic boundary conditions and environmental management.}, }
@article {pmid35134022, year = {2021}, author = {Anjum, S and Callaghan, H and Johnson, B}, title = {Medical Schools Must Teach More Innovative Methods of Treatment to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {96}, number = {12}, pages = {1627-1628}, pmid = {35134022}, issn = {1938-808X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Humans ; *Schools, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid35129842, year = {2022}, author = {Weaver, SA and Mallinger, RE}, title = {A specialist bee and its host plants experience phenological shifts at different rates in response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {103}, number = {5}, pages = {e3658}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.3658}, pmid = {35129842}, issn = {1939-9170}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees ; *Climate Change ; *Plants ; Seasons ; Symbiosis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Changes in climate can alter the phenology of organisms, potentially decoupling partners within mutualisms. Previous studies have shown that plant and pollinator phenologies are shifting over time, but these shifts have primarily been documented for generalists and within small geographic regions, and the specific climatic cues regulating these shifts are not well understood. We examined phenological shifts in a specialist pollinator and its host plant species over a 117-year study period using a digitized data set of more than 4000 unique collection records. We assessed how climatic cues regulate these organisms' phenologies using PRISM weather data associated with each record. We tested the hypothesis that rates of phenological change would be greater at northern latitudes. We found that the phenology of the specialist bee pollinator Habropoda laboriosa is changing over time, but at different rates across its range. Specifically, phenology is advancing to a greater degree in more northern populations, with increasing phenological advances of 0.04 days/year with each degree of latitude, and with a delay in phenology in more southern populations. In contrast, only one species in the host plant genus Vaccinium is experiencing phenological change over time. For this plant, rates of change are also variable across latitudes, but in a pattern opposite that of the bee; while phenology is advancing across its range, rates of advance are highest in more southern populations, with decreasing phenological advances of 0.01 days/year with each degree of latitude. The phenologies of both the bee and three of four Vaccinium spp. were regulated primarily by spring temperature, with phenologies overall advancing with increasing temperature, and with the strongest responses shown by the bee in northern populations. Our study provides partial support for the hypothesis that phenologies advance most at northern latitudes, but demonstrates that pollinators and plants do not adhere similarly to this prediction. Additionally, we illustrate the potential for phenological mismatch between a specialist pollinator and its host plants by showing that plants and pollinators are advancing their phenologies at different rates across space and time and with differing responses to changing climatic cues.}, }
@article {pmid35129261, year = {2022}, author = {Bezner Kerr, R and Naess, LO and Allen-O'Neil, B and Totin, E and Nyantakyi-Frimpong, H and Risvoll, C and Rivera Ferre, MG and López-I-Gelats, F and Eriksen, S}, title = {Interplays between changing biophysical and social dynamics under climate change: Implications for limits to sustainable adaptation in food systems.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {11}, pages = {3580-3604}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16124}, pmid = {35129261}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Climate change scenarios have significant implications for the livelihoods and food security of particular groups in society and will necessitate a range of adaptation actions. While there is a significant literature on the social as well as biophysical factors and limits to adaptation, less is known about the interactions between these, and what such interactions mean for the prospects of achieving sustainable and resilient food systems. This paper is an attempt at addressing this gap by examining changing biophysical and social factors, with specific consideration of vulnerable groups, across four case studies (Ghana, Malawi, Norway and Spain). In each case, future climate change scenarios and associated biophysical limits are mapped onto four key social factors that drive vulnerability and mediate adaptation, namely, scale, history, power and politics, and social differentiation. We then consider what the interaction between biophysical limits and socio-political dynamics means for the options for and limits to future adaptation, and how climate may interact with, and reshape, socio-political elements. We find that biophysical limits and socio-political factors do not operate in isolation, but interact, with dynamic relationships determining the 'space' or set of options for sustainable adaptation. By connecting the perspectives of biophysical and social factors, the study illuminates the risks of unanticipated outcomes that result from the disregard of local contexts in the implementation of adaptation measures. We conclude that a framework focusing on the space for sustainable adaptation conditioned by biophysical and social factors, and their interactions, can help provide evidence on what does and does not constitute sustainable adaptation, and help to counter unhelpful narratives of climate change as a sole or dominant cause of challenges in food systems.}, }
@article {pmid35127032, year = {2022}, author = {Duarte, AG and Maherali, H}, title = {A meta-analysis of the effects of climate change on the mutualism between plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {e8518}, pmid = {35127032}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change and other anthropogenic activities have the potential to alter the dynamics of resource exchange in the mutualistic symbiosis between plants and mycorrhizal fungi, potentially altering its stability. Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, which interact with most plant species, are less cold-tolerant than other groups of fungi; warming might therefore lead to increased fungal-mediated nutrient transfers to plants, which could strengthen the mutualism. By stimulating photosynthesis, rising CO2 could reduce the carbon cost of supporting AM fungi, which may also strengthen the mutualism. Furthermore, rising temperature and CO2 could have stronger effects on the mutualism in wild plants than in domesticated plants because the process of domestication can reduce the dependence of plants on mycorrhizal fungi. We conducted a multi-level random effects meta-analysis of experiments that quantified the strength of the mutualism as plant growth response to AM fungal inoculation (i.e., mycorrhizal growth response) under contrasting temperature and CO2 treatments that spanned the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to those expected with future climate change. We tested predictions using a three-level mixed effects meta-regression model with temperature or CO2, domestication status and their interaction as moderators. Increases from subambient to ambient temperature stimulated mycorrhizal growth response only for wild, but not for domesticated plant species. An increase from ambient to superambient temperature stimulated mycorrhizal growth response in both wild and domesticated plants, but the overall temperature effect was not statistically significant. By contrast, increased CO2 concentration, either from subambient to ambient or ambient to super ambient levels, did not affect mycorrhizal growth response in wild or domesticated plants. These results suggest the mutualism between wild plants and AM fungi was likely strengthened as temperature rose from the past to the present and that forecasted warming due to climate change may have modest positive effects on the mutualistic responses of plants to AM fungi. Mutualistic benefits obtained by plants from AM fungi may not have been altered by atmospheric CO2 increases from the past to the present, nor are they likely to be affected by a forecasted CO2 increase. This meta-analysis also identified gaps in the literature. In particular, (i) a large majority of studies that examined temperature effects on the mutualism focus on domesticated species (>80% of all trials) and (ii) very few studies examine how rising temperature and CO2, or other anthropogenic effects, interact to influence the mutualism. Therefore, to predict the stability of the mycorrhizal mutualism in the Anthropocene, future work should prioritize wild plant species as study subjects and focus on identifying how climate change factors and other human activities interact to affect plant responses to AM fungi.}, }
@article {pmid35127026, year = {2022}, author = {Andrzejak, M and Korell, L and Auge, H and Knight, TM}, title = {Effects of climate change and pollen supplementation on the reproductive success of two grassland plant species.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {e8501}, pmid = {35127026}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change has the potential to alter plant reproductive success directly and indirectly through disruptions in animal pollination. Climate models project altered seasonal precipitation patterns, and thus, the effects of climate change on available resources and pollination services will depend on the season. Plants have evolved reproductive strategies to so they are not limited by either pollen or water availability in their reproductive success, and therefore, we expect that the disruption of climate change might cause plants to be more pollen limited in seasons that become wetter than they were historically. In this study, we conducted a pollen supplementation experiment within the Global Change Experiment Facility (GCEF) in Central Germany. The GCEF experimentally manipulates future climate based on a realistic scenario of climate change for the region (drier summers and wetter springs and falls) in a native grassland ecosystem. We quantified seed production of two perennial species Dianthus carthusianorum and Scabiosa ochroleuca in response to pollination treatments (control, supplement), climate treatments (ambient and future) and season (summer and fall). Dianthus carthusianorum produced more seeds in future climate conditions independent of the season, but only when given supplemental pollen. Both species showed an increased reproduction in summer compared with the fall. We did not find evidence for our specific expectation of higher pollen limitation in the future climate and fall season (i.e., no three-way interaction pollination × season × climate), which might be explained by the high-drought tolerance and generalized pollination of our focal plant species. We conclude that plant reproductive success has the potential to change with changing climates and that this change will depend on how pollinator services change in the future. We offer many suggestions for future studies that are necessary to understand the context dependence and underlying mechanisms of plant reproductive responses to climate.}, }
@article {pmid35127016, year = {2022}, author = {Fisher, MC and Helser, TE and Kang, S and Gwak, W and Canino, MF and Hauser, L}, title = {Genetic structure and dispersal in peripheral populations of a marine fish (Pacific cod, Gadus macrocephalus) and their importance for adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {e8474}, pmid = {35127016}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Small and isolated peripheral populations, which are often remnants of glacial refugia, offer an opportunity to determine the magnitude and direction of fine-scale connectivity in high gene flow marine species. When located at the equatorial edge of a species' range, these populations may also harbor genetic diversity related to survival and reproduction at higher temperatures, a critical resource for marine species facing warming ocean temperatures. Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), a marine fish in the North Pacific, has already experienced major shifts in biomass and distribution linked to climate change. We estimated the magnitude and direction of connectivity between peripheral populations of Pacific cod at the southern edge of the species' range, by conducting restriction site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing and individual assignment on fish collected around the Korean Peninsula during the spawning season. Three populations on the western, eastern, and southern Korean coasts were highly differentiated (FST = 0.025-0.042) and relatively small (Ne = 433-1,777). Ten putative dispersers and estimates of contemporary migration rates revealed asymmetrical, west-to-east movement around the Korean Peninsula, at a higher rate than predicted by indirect estimates of connectivity (FST). Allele frequencies at 87 RAD loci were decisively correlated with strong marine temperature gradients between the warmer southern coast and the cooler waters of the eastern and western coasts. Despite relatively small sample sizes, our data suggest asymmetrical dispersal and gene flow, potentially involving adaptive alleles, between peripheral populations inhabiting markedly different thermal regimes. Our study emphasizes the conservation value of peripheral populations in high gene flow marine fish species.}, }
@article {pmid35127002, year = {2022}, author = {Bader, MY and Moureau, E and Nikolić, N and Madena, T and Koehn, N and Zotz, G}, title = {Simulating climate change in situ in a tropical rainforest understorey using active air warming and CO2 addition.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {e8406}, pmid = {35127002}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Future climate-change effects on plant growth are most effectively studied using microclimate-manipulation experiments, the design of which has seen much advance in recent years. For tropical forests, however, such experiments are particularly hard to install and have hence not been widely used. We present a system of active heating and CO2 fertilization for use in tropical forest understoreys, where passive heating is not possible. The system was run for 2 years to study climate-change effects on epiphytic bryophytes, but is also deemed suitable to study other understorey plants. Warm air and CO2 addition were applied in 1.6-m-tall, 1.2-m-diameter hexagonal open-top chambers and the microclimate in the chambers compared to outside air. Warming was regulated with a feedback system while CO2 addition was fixed. The setup successfully heated the air by 2.8 K and increased CO2 by 250 ppm on average, with +3 K and +300 ppm as the targets. Variation was high, especially due to technical breakdowns, but not biased to times of the day or year. In the warming treatment, absolute humidity slightly increased but relative humidity dropped by between 6% and 15% (and the vapor pressure deficit increased) compared to ambient, depending on the level of warming achieved in each chamber. Compared to other heating systems, the chambers provide a realistic warming and CO2 treatment, but moistening the incoming air would be needed to avoid drying as a confounding factor. The method is preferable over infrared heating in the radiation-poor forest understorey, particularly when combined with CO2 fertilization. It is suitable for plant-level studies, but ecosystem-level studies in forests may require chamber-less approaches like infrared heating and free-air CO2 enrichment. By presenting the advantages and limitations of our approach, we aim to facilitate further climate-change experiments in tropical forests, which are urgently needed to understand the processes determining future element fluxes and biodiversity changes in these ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid35126645, year = {2022}, author = {Chen, Z and Grossfurthner, L and Loxterman, JL and Masingale, J and Richardson, BA and Seaborn, T and Smith, B and Waits, LP and Narum, SR}, title = {Applying genomics in assisted migration under climate change: Framework, empirical applications, and case studies.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {3-21}, pmid = {35126645}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {The rate of global climate change is projected to outpace the ability of many natural populations and species to adapt. Assisted migration (AM), which is defined as the managed movement of climate-adapted individuals within or outside the species ranges, is a conservation option to improve species' adaptive capacity and facilitate persistence. Although conservation biologists have long been using genetic tools to increase or maintain diversity of natural populations, genomic techniques could add extra benefit in AM that include selectively neutral and adaptive regions of the genome. In this review, we first propose a framework along with detailed procedures to aid collaboration among scientists, agencies, and local and regional managers during the decision-making process of genomics-guided AM. We then summarize the genomic approaches for applying AM, followed by a literature search of existing incorporation of genomics in AM across taxa. Our literature search initially identified 729 publications, but after filtering returned only 50 empirical studies that were either directly applied or considered genomics in AM related to climate change across taxa of plants, terrestrial animals, and aquatic animals; 42 studies were in plants. This demonstrated limited application of genomic methods in AM in organisms other than plants, so we provide further case studies as two examples to demonstrate the negative impact of climate change on non-model species and how genomics could be applied in AM. With the rapidly developing sequencing technology and accumulating genomic data, we expect to see more successful applications of genomics in AM, and more broadly, in the conservation of biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid35126403, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, X and Liu, Y and Li, X and He, S and Zhong, M and Shang, F}, title = {Spatiotemporal Variation of Osmanthus fragrans Phenology in China in Response to Climate Change From 1973 to 1996.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {716071}, pmid = {35126403}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change greatly affects spring and autumn plant phenology around the world consequently, and significantly impacts ecosystem function and the social economy. However, autumn plant phenology, especially autumn flowering phenology, has not been studied so far. In this study, we examined the spatiotemporal pattern of Osmanthus fragrans phenology, including both leaf phenology (the date of bud-bust, BBD; first leaf unfolding, FLD; and 50% of leaf unfolding, 50 LD) and flowering phenology (the date of first flowering, FFD; peak of flowering, PFD; and end of flowering, EFD). Stepwise multiple linear regressions were employed to analyze the relationships between phenophases and climatic factors in the long term phenological data collected by the Chinese Phenological Observation Network from 1973 to 1996. The results showed that spring leaf phenophases and autumn flowering phenophases were strongly affected by latitude. BBD, FLD, and 50LD of O. fragrans were delayed by 3.98, 3.93, and 4.40 days as per degree of latitude increased, while FFD, PFD and EFD in O. fragrans advanced 3.11, 3.26, and 2.99 days, respectively. During the entire study period, BBD was significantly delayed across the region, whereas no significant trends were observed either in FLD or 50LD. Notably, all flowering phenophases of O. fragrans were delayed. Both leaf and flowering phenophases negatively correlated with growing degree-days (GDD) and cold degree-days (CDD), respectively. BBD and FLD were negatively correlated with total annual precipitation. In addition to the effects of climate on autumn flowering phenology, we found that earlier spring leaf phenophases led to delayed autumn flowering phenophases. Our results suggest that future climate change and global warming might delay the phenological sequence of O. fragrans. Our findings also advanced the flowering mechanism study of autumn flowering plants, and facilitated the accurate prediction of future phenology and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35124036, year = {2022}, author = {Alizadeh, MR and Adamowski, J and Inam, A}, title = {Integrated assessment of localized SSP-RCP narratives for climate change adaptation in coupled human-water systems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {823}, number = {}, pages = {153660}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153660}, pmid = {35124036}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Water ; }, abstract = {The assessment of climate change impacts requires downscaled climate projections and context-specific socioeconomic scenarios. The development of practical climate change adaptation for environmental sustainability at regional and local scales is predicated on a strong understanding of future socio-economic dynamics under a range of potential climate projections. We have addressed this need using integrated assessment of a localized hybrid Shared Socio-economic Pathway - Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) framework, through an interdisciplinary and participatory storyline development process that integrates bottom-up local expert-stakeholder knowledge with top-down insights from global SSPs. We use the global SSPs (SSP1 to SSP5) as boundary conditions in conjunction with climate change pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) to create localized SSP narratives in an iterative participatory process, using a storytelling method. By using an integrated socio-economic and environmental system dynamics model developed in collaboration with local stakeholders, we explore the potential impacts of plausible local SSP-RCP narratives and quantify important socio-environmental vulnerabilities of a human-water system (e.g., crop yields, farm income, water security and groundwater depletion) by the mid-century period (i.e., by 2050). The framework is developed to inform climate adaptation for Pakistan's Rechna Doab region, which serves as a representative case of a multi-stakeholder coupled human-water system operating in a developing country. Our results suggest that even under limited socio-economic improvements (e.g., technology, policies, institutions, environmental awareness) water security would be expected to decline and environmental degradation (e.g., groundwater depletion) to worsen. Under RCP 4.5, the average projected increase in water demand in 2030 will be about 7.32% for all SSP scenario narratives, and 10.82% by mid-century. Groundwater use varies significantly across SSPs which results in an average increase of about 29.06% for all SSPs. The proposed framework facilitates the development of future adaptation policies that should consider regional and local planning as well as socio-economic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid35121456, year = {2022}, author = {Senanayake, S and Pradhan, B}, title = {Predicting soil erosion susceptibility associated with climate change scenarios in the Central Highlands of Sri Lanka.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {308}, number = {}, pages = {114589}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114589}, pmid = {35121456}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Soil ; *Soil Erosion ; Sri Lanka ; }, abstract = {Soil erosion hazard is one of the prominent climate hazards that negatively impact countries' economies and livelihood. According to the global climate index, Sri Lanka is ranked among the first ten countries most threatened by climate change during the last three years (2018-2020). However, limited studies were conducted to simulate the impact of the soil erosion vulnerability based on climate scenarios. This study aims to assess and predict soil erosion susceptibility using climate change projected scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) in the Central Highlands of Sri Lanka. The potential of soil erosion susceptibility was predicted to 2040, depending on climate change scenarios, RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Five models: revised universal soil loss (RUSLE), frequency ratio (FR), artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) were selected as widely applied for hazards assessments. Eight geo-environmental factors were selected as inputs to model the soil erosion susceptibility. Results of the five models demonstrate that soil erosion vulnerability (soil erosion rates) will increase 4%-22% compared to the current soil erosion rate (2020). The predictions indicate average soil erosion will increase to 10.50 t/ha/yr and 12.4 t/ha/yr under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate scenario in 2040, respectively. The ANFIS and SVM model predictions showed the highest accuracy (89%) on soil erosion susceptibility for this study area. The soil erosion susceptibility maps provide a good understanding of future soil erosion vulnerability (spatial distribution) and can be utilized to develop climate resilience.}, }
@article {pmid35119642, year = {2022}, author = {Azizi, J and Zarei, N and Ali, S}, title = {The short- and long-term impacts of climate change on the irrigated barley yield in Iran: an application of dynamic ordinary least squares approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {26}, pages = {40169-40177}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-022-19046-9}, pmid = {35119642}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Hordeum ; Iran ; Least-Squares Analysis ; }, abstract = {Given the extensive impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector and their interactions, the climate change is known as one of the main factors influencing agricultural production. The present study aims to explore the short- and long-term impacts of climate change on the yield of irrigated barley in 28 Iranian provinces over the 1999-2015 period. The research uses panel data and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) method. The study also estimated the threshold levels of temperature and rainfall which confirmed an inverted U-shaped relationship between climate change variables and irrigated barley yield. The threshold levels of temperature and rainfall are estimated to be 15.48 °C and 239 mm, respectively; beyond these threshold levels, the increase in temperature and rainfall have negative impact on barley yield in Iran. The long-term elasticity of temperature shows that the yield will be reduced with the increase in temperature in the long run. Same is the case with the precipitation and barley yield. The findings of the study suggest the need of a comprehensive national climate change policy and alignment of sectoral policies with it mitigate and adapt the climate change and global warming. Moreover, it also provided the guidelines for the government and policy-makers to introduce the use of modern eco-friendly and resource saving technologies such as water-saving methods of irrigation, use of fertilizer in required quantities, and improved seeds use. The government should also introduce the climate change awareness programs especially for farmers.}, }
@article {pmid35119455, year = {2022}, author = {Barnes, EM and Tringe, SG}, title = {Exploring the roles of microbes in facilitating plant adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {The Biochemical journal}, volume = {479}, number = {3}, pages = {327-335}, pmid = {35119455}, issn = {1470-8728}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Bacteria/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fungi/*metabolism ; Host Microbial Interactions/*physiology ; Microbiota ; Plants/*metabolism/*microbiology ; Soil Microbiology ; Stress, Physiological ; Symbiosis/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Plants benefit from their close association with soil microbes which assist in their response to abiotic and biotic stressors. Yet much of what we know about plant stress responses is based on studies where the microbial partners were uncontrolled and unknown. Under climate change, the soil microbial community will also be sensitive to and respond to abiotic and biotic stressors. Thus, facilitating plant adaptation to climate change will require a systems-based approach that accounts for the multi-dimensional nature of plant-microbe-environment interactions. In this perspective, we highlight some of the key factors influencing plant-microbe interactions under stress as well as new tools to facilitate the controlled study of their molecular complexity, such as fabricated ecosystems and synthetic communities. When paired with genomic and biochemical methods, these tools provide researchers with more precision, reproducibility, and manipulability for exploring plant-microbe-environment interactions under a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid35115621, year = {2022}, author = {Kidane, YO and Hoffmann, S and Jaeschke, A and Beloiu, M and Beierkuhnlein, C}, title = {Ericaceous vegetation of the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia will prevail in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1858}, pmid = {35115621}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change impacts the structure, functioning, and distribution of species and ecosystems. It will shift ecosystem boundaries, potentially affecting vulnerable ecosystems, such as tropical Africa's high mountain ecosystems, i.e., afroalpine ecosystems, and their highly susceptible uniquely adapted species. However, ecosystems along these mountains are not expected to respond similarly to the change. The ericaceous woody vegetation, located between the low-elevation broadleaf forests and high-elevation afroalpine vegetation, are anticipated to be affected differently. We hypothesize that projected climate change will result in an upward expansion and increasing dominance of ericaceous vegetation, which will negatively impact the endemic rich afroalpine ecosystems of the extensive Sanetti plateau. Hence, we modeled the impact of future climate change on the distribution of ericaceous vegetation and discussed its effect on bordering ecosystems in the Bale Mountains. We applied four familiar correlative modeling approaches: bioclim, domain, generalized linear methods, and support vector machines. We used WorldClim's bioclimatic variables as environmental predictors and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report climate change scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for future climate projection. The results indicate increased ericaceous vegetation cover on the midaltitude of northwestern and northern parts of the massif, and the Sanetti plateau. We observed upward range expansion and increase of close ericaceous vegetation in midaltitudes, while receding from the lower range across the massif. Moreover, the current ericaceous vegetation range correlates to the temperature and precipitation trends, reaffirming the critical role of temperature and precipitation in determining species distributions along elevational gradients. The results indicate the high likelihood of considerable changes in this biodiversity hotspot in Eastern Africa.}, }
@article {pmid35113272, year = {2022}, author = {Dar, T and Rai, N and Kumar, S and Bhat, MA}, title = {Climate change impact on cryosphere and streamflow in the Upper Jhelum River Basin (UJRB) of north-western Himalayas.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {3}, pages = {140}, pmid = {35113272}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hydrology ; Ice Cover ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {The critical significance of keeping the current information about the extent and dynamics of the cryosphere in the Himalayas cannot be understated. The climate of the Himalayas is vulnerable and interlinked with global-scale climate changes, and the hydrology of the region mainly depends on the cryosphere. This is the first study that has created glacier and glacier lake inventory that links the impact of cryosphere on streamflow to land system dynamic changes under the changing climate of the Upper Jhelum River Basin (UJRB) of the Kashmir Himalayan region. This study uses a series of satellite data (1980-2016) to assess the depletion of snow cover area (SCA), deglaciation, and dynamics of glacial lakes. Moreover, observational long-term hydrometeorological data were used to understand the variability in temperature, precipitation, and track changes of land system dynamics under depletion of streamflow. The results suggested an overall rise in temperature (TMax = 0.05 ºC a[-1]; TMin = 0.02 ºC a[-1]; Tavg = 0.06 ºC a[-1]) and a decrease in precipitation (2.9 mm a[-1]) between 1980 and 2016 with a significant increase in annual average temperature and decrease in annual precipitation at stations located at higher altitudes. The SCA showed a significantly decreasing (p < 0.01) trend in the glacierized sub-basins with an annual rate of decrease of -0.78% a[-1], -0.15% a[-1], -0.03% a[-1] -0.90% a[-1] for Lidder, Sindh, Vishow, and Rambiara sub-basins, respectively. The findings of this study reveal the high occurrence of glacier disintegration and deglaciation. During the period 2010-2016, a rapid rate of deglaciation was observed (18.34 ± 0.14 km[2]), followed by 1992-2000 (15.61 ± 0.13 km[2]). The average rate of retreat was observed to be 6.81 ± 1.5 m a[-1] with a total retreat of 267 ± 80 m during 1980-2016, which is higher than reported from surrounding mountain ranges in the Himalayas. The mapped 244 glacial and high-altitude lake inventory covers a total surface area of around 15 km[2], with 5.87 km[2] (40%) covered by 25 bedrock-dammed lakes. The glacial expansion and creation of new lakes are observed to be because of increasing glacier and snow melting between 1980 and 2016, which increases the risk of GLOF events in the future. The annual average discharge in UJRB significantly increased from 1991 to 1998 and was observed to be higher than the annual average of the respected gauge stations but shows significant depletion from 1998 onwards. The streamflow depletion under climate change is one of the reasons for land system dynamics in UJRB. The area under agriculture has decreased up to 63% with a massive expansion of built-up (399%), aquatic vegetation (523%), and plantation (765%) between 1992 and 2015.}, }
@article {pmid35110579, year = {2022}, author = {Zolghadr-Asli, B and Bozorg-Haddad, O and Enayati, M and Loáiciga, HA}, title = {Sensitivity of non-conditional climatic variables to climate-change deep uncertainty using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1813}, pmid = {35110579}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {There is substantial evidence suggesting climate change is having an adverse impact on the world's water resources. One must remember, however, that climate change is beset by uncertainty. It is therefore meaningful for climate change impact assessments to be conducted with stochastic-based frameworks. The degree of uncertainty about the nature of a stochastic phenomenon may differ from one another. Deep uncertainty refers to a situation in which the parameters governing intervening probability distributions of the stochastic phenomenon are themselves subjected to some degree of uncertainty. In most climatic studies, however, the assessment of the role of deep-uncertain nature of climate change has been limited. This work contributes to fill this knowledge gap by developing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis involving Bayes' theorem that merges the stochastic patterns of historical data (i.e., the prior distribution) and the regional climate models' (RCMs') generated climate scenarios (i.e., the likelihood function) to redefine the stochastic behavior of a non-conditional climatic variable under climate change conditions (i.e., the posterior distribution). This study accounts for the deep-uncertainty effect by evaluating the stochastic pattern of the central tendency measure of the posterior distributions through regenerating the MCMCs. The Karkheh River Basin, Iran, is chosen to evaluate the proposed method. The reason for selecting this case study was twofold. First, this basin has a central role in ensuring the region's water, food, and energy security. The other reason is the diverse topographic profile of the basin, which imposes predictive challenges for most RCMs. Our results indicate that, while in most seasons, with the notable exception of summer, one can expect a slight drop in the temperature in the near future, the average temperature would continue to rise until eventually surpassing the historically recorded values. The results also revealed that the 95% confidence interval of the central tendency measure of computed posterior probability distributions varies between 0.1 and 0.3 °C. The results suggest exercising caution when employing the RCMs' raw projections, especially in topographically diverse terrain.}, }
@article {pmid35110565, year = {2022}, author = {Rackow, T and Danilov, S and Goessling, HF and Hellmer, HH and Sein, DV and Semmler, T and Sidorenko, D and Jung, T}, title = {Delayed Antarctic sea-ice decline in high-resolution climate change simulations.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {637}, pmid = {35110565}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Despite global warming and Arctic sea-ice loss, on average the Antarctic sea-ice extent has not declined since 1979 when satellite data became available. In contrast, climate model simulations tend to exhibit strong negative sea-ice trends for the same period. This Antarctic sea-ice paradox leads to low confidence in 21st-century sea-ice projections. Here we present multi-resolution climate change projections that account for Southern Ocean mesoscale eddies. The high-resolution configuration simulates stable September Antarctic sea-ice extent that is not projected to decline until the mid-21st century. We argue that one reason for this finding is a more realistic ocean circulation that increases the equatorward heat transport response to global warming. As a result, the ocean becomes more efficient at moderating the anthropogenic warming around Antarctica and hence at delaying sea-ice decline. Our study suggests that explicitly simulating Southern Ocean eddies is necessary for providing Antarctic sea-ice projections with higher confidence.}, }
@article {pmid35106864, year = {2022}, author = {Sully, S and Hodgson, G and van Woesik, R}, title = {Present and future bright and dark spots for coral reefs through climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {15}, pages = {4509-4522}, pmid = {35106864}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Bayes Theorem ; Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Marine heatwaves can cause coral bleaching and reduce coral cover on reefs, yet few studies have identified "bright spots," where corals have recently shown a capacity to survive such pressures. We analyzed 7714 worldwide surveys from 1997 to 2018 along with 14 environmental and temperature metrics in a hierarchical Bayesian model to identify conditions that contribute to present-day coral cover. We also identified locations with significantly higher (i.e., "bright spots") and lower coral cover (i.e., "dark spots") than regionally expected. In addition, using 4-km downscaled data of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, we projected coral cover on reefs for the years 2050 and 2100. Coral cover on modern reefs was positively associated with historically high maximum sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and negatively associated with high contemporary SSTs, tropical-cyclone frequencies, and human-population densities. By 2100, under RCP8.5, we projected relative decreases in coral cover of >40% on most reefs globally but projected less decline on reefs in Indonesia, Malaysia, the central Philippines, New Caledonia, Fiji, and French Polynesia, which should be focal localities for multinational networks of protected areas.}, }
@article {pmid35106859, year = {2022}, author = {Cabrera, AA and Schall, E and Bérubé, M and Anderwald, P and Bachmann, L and Berrow, S and Best, PB and Clapham, PJ and Cunha, HA and Dalla Rosa, L and Dias, C and Findlay, KP and Haug, T and Heide-Jørgensen, MP and Hoelzel, AR and Kovacs, KM and Landry, S and Larsen, F and Lopes, XM and Lydersen, C and Mattila, DK and Oosting, T and Pace, RM and Papetti, C and Paspati, A and Pastene, LA and Prieto, R and Ramp, C and Robbins, J and Sears, R and Secchi, ER and Silva, MA and Simon, M and Víkingsson, G and Wiig, &#xd8; and Øien, N and Palsbøll, PJ}, title = {Strong and lasting impacts of past global warming on baleen whales and their prey.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {8}, pages = {2657-2677}, pmid = {35106859}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Norsk Polarinstitutt/ ; //Stockholms Universitet/ ; //University of California Berkeley/ ; 019.183EN.005//Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; //Irish Research Council/ ; 201709/2014-7//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 408096/2013-6//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 442637/2018-7//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; //Universitetet i Oslo/ ; IF/00943/2013//Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; SFRH/BPD/108007/2015//Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; TRACE-PTDC/MAR/74071/2006//Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; UID/MAR/04292/2019//Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; UIDB/05634/2020//Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology/ ; //K&#xf8;benhavns Universitet/ ; //Rijksuniversiteit Groningen/ ; //Bangor University/ ; //Greenland Home Rule Government/ ; //Commission for Scientific Research in Greenland/ ; //Greenland Nature Resource Institute/ ; //WWF-DK/ ; //Aage V. Jensen Foundation/ ; //Danish Natural Science Research Council/ ; //Norwegian Polar Institute/ ; //WWF Norway/ ; //Norwegian Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Population Dynamics ; Whales/physiology ; }, abstract = {Global warming is affecting the population dynamics and trophic interactions across a wide range of ecosystems and habitats. Translating these real-time effects into their long-term consequences remains a challenge. The rapid and extreme warming period that occurred after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition (7-12 thousand years ago) provides an opportunity to gain insights into the long-term responses of natural populations to periods with global warming. The effects of this post-LGM warming period have been assessed in many terrestrial taxa, whereas insights into the impacts of rapid global warming on marine taxa remain limited, especially for megafauna. In order to understand how large-scale climate fluctuations during the post-LGM affected baleen whales and their prey, we conducted an extensive, large-scale analysis of the long-term effects of the post-LGM warming on abundance and inter-ocean connectivity in eight baleen whale and seven prey (fish and invertebrates) species across the Southern and the North Atlantic Ocean; two ocean basins that differ in key oceanographic features. The analysis was based upon 7032 mitochondrial DNA sequences as well as genome-wide DNA sequence variation in 100 individuals. The estimated temporal changes in genetic diversity during the last 30,000 years indicated that most baleen whale populations underwent post-LGM expansions in both ocean basins. The increase in baleen whale abundance during the Holocene was associated with simultaneous changes in their prey and climate. Highly correlated, synchronized and exponential increases in abundance in both baleen whales and their prey in the Southern Ocean were indicative of a dramatic increase in ocean productivity. In contrast, the demographic fluctuations observed in baleen whales and their prey in the North Atlantic Ocean were subtle, varying across taxa and time. Perhaps most important was the observation that the ocean-wide expansions and decreases in abundance that were initiated by the post-LGM global warming, continued for millennia after global temperatures stabilized, reflecting persistent, long-lasting impacts of global warming on marine fauna.}, }
@article {pmid35106531, year = {2022}, author = {Batlla, D and Malavert, C and Farnocchia, RBF and Footitt, S and Benech-Arnold, RL and Finch-Savage, WE}, title = {A quantitative analysis of temperature-dependent seasonal dormancy cycling in buried Arabidopsis thaliana seeds can predict seedling emergence in a global warming scenario.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {73}, number = {8}, pages = {2454-2468}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erac038}, pmid = {35106531}, issn = {1460-2431}, support = {PICT2018-03546//Agencia Nacional de Promoci&#xf3;n Cient&#xed;fica/ ; }, mesh = {*Arabidopsis/physiology ; Germination/physiology ; Global Warming ; Plant Dormancy/physiology ; Seasons ; Seedlings/physiology ; Seeds/physiology ; Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding how the environment regulates seed-bank dormancy changes is essential for forecasting seedling emergence in actual and future climatic scenarios, and to interpret studies of dormancy mechanisms at physiological and molecular levels. Here, we used a population threshold modelling approach to analyse dormancy changes through variations in the thermal range permissive for germination in buried seeds of Arabidopsis thaliana Cvi, a winter annual ecotype. Results showed that changes in dormancy level were mainly associated with variations in the higher limit of the thermal range permissive for germination. Changes in this limit were positively related to soil temperature during dormancy release and induction, and could be predicted using thermal time. From this, we developed a temperature-driven simulation to predict the fraction of the seed bank able to germinate in a realistic global warming scenario that approximated seedling emergence timing. Simulations predicted, in accordance with seedling emergence observed in the field, an increase in the fraction of the seed bank able to emerge as a result of global warming. In addition, our results suggest that buried seeds perceive changes in the variability of the mean daily soil temperature as the signal to change between dormancy release and induction according to the seasons.}, }
@article {pmid35106267, year = {2022}, author = {Meijers, MHC and Scholz, C and Torfadóttir, RH and Wonneberger, A and Markov, M}, title = {Correction to: Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic to combat climate change: comparing drivers of individual action in global crises.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {283}, doi = {10.1007/s13412-022-00749-x}, pmid = {35106267}, issn = {2190-6483}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1007/s13412-021-00727-9.].}, }
@article {pmid35101987, year = {2022}, author = {Song, F and Zhang, GJ and Ramanathan, V and Leung, LR}, title = {Trends in surface equivalent potential temperature: A more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {35101987}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Trends in surface air temperature (SAT) are a common metric for global warming. Using observations and observationally driven models, we show that a more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes is the trend in surface equivalent potential temperature (Thetae_sfc) since it also accounts for the increase in atmospheric humidity and latent energy. From 1980 to 2019, while SAT increased by 0.79[Formula: see text], Thetae_sfc increased by 1.48[Formula: see text] globally and as much as 4[Formula: see text] in the tropics. The increase in water vapor is responsible for the factor of 2 difference between SAT and Thetae_sfc trends. Thetae_sfc increased more uniformly (than SAT) between the midlatitudes of the southern hemisphere and the northern hemisphere, revealing the global nature of the heating added by greenhouse gases (GHGs). Trends in heat extremes and extreme precipitation are correlated strongly with the global/tropical trends in Thetae_sfc. The tropical amplification of Thetae_sfc is as large as the arctic amplification of SAT, accounting for the observed global positive trends in deep convection and a 20% increase in heat extremes. With unchecked GHG emissions, while SAT warming can reach 4.8[Formula: see text] by 2100, the global mean Thetae_sfc can increase by as much as 12[Formula: see text], with corresponding increases of 12[Formula: see text] (median) to 24[Formula: see text] (5% of grid points) in land surface temperature extremes, a 14- to 30-fold increase in frequency of heat extremes, a 40% increase in the energy available for tropical deep convection, and an up to 60% increase in extreme precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid35100455, year = {2022}, author = {Ros, A and Schmidt-Posthaus, H and Brinker, A}, title = {Mitigating human impacts including climate change on proliferative kidney disease in salmonids of running waters.}, journal = {Journal of fish diseases}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {497-521}, doi = {10.1111/jfd.13585}, pmid = {35100455}, issn = {1365-2761}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthropogenic Effects ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fish Diseases/parasitology/prevention &amp; control ; *Kidney Diseases/parasitology/prevention &amp; control/veterinary ; *Myxozoa ; *Parasitic Diseases, Animal/parasitology/prevention &amp; control ; *Salmonidae ; Trout/parasitology ; }, abstract = {Over the last two decades, an increasing number of reports have identified a decline in salmonid populations, possibly linked to infection with the parasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae and the corresponding disease, that is, proliferative kidney disease (PKD). The life cycle of this myxozoan parasite includes sessile bryozoan species as invertebrate host, which facilitates the distribution of the parasite in running waters. As the disease outcome is temperature dependent, the impact of the disease on salmonid populations is increasing with global warming due to climate change. The goal of this review is to provide a detailed overview of measures to mitigate the effects of PKD on salmonid populations. It first summarizes the parasite life cycle, temperature-driven disease dynamics and new immunological and molecular research into disease resistance and, based on this, discusses management possibilities. Sophisticated management actions focusing on local adaptation of salmonid populations, restoration of the riverine ecosystem and keeping water temperatures cool are necessary to reduce the negative effects of PKD. Such actions include temporary stocking with PKD-resistant salmonids, as this may assist in conserving current populations that fail to reproduce.}, }
@article {pmid35098249, year = {2022}, author = {Ben Youssef, A and Zeqiri, A}, title = {Hospitality Industry 4.0 and Climate Change.}, journal = {Circular economy and sustainability}, volume = {2}, number = {3}, pages = {1043-1063}, pmid = {35098249}, issn = {2730-5988}, abstract = {This paper investigates under which conditions implementation of Industry 4.0 in the hospitality sector could help to combat climate change. The paper takes the form of a systematic literature review to examine the main pillars of Industry 4.0 in the hospitality industry and discuss how these technologies could help combat climate change. We propose five conditions under which Industry 4.0 could help to combat climate change. First, in the hospitality industry, increased use of Industry 4.0 technologies induces an increase in energy efficiency and a reduction of GHG. Second, increased use of Industry 4.0 technologies induces a reduction in water consumption and an increase in water use efficiency. Third, increased use of Industry 4.0 technologies induces a reduction in food waste. Fourth, increased use of Industry 4.0 technologies can promote Circular Hospitality 4.0. Fifth, increased use of Industry 4.0 technologies helps to reduce transport and travel. Hospitality Industry 4.0 technologies offer new opportunities for enhancing sustainable development and reducing GHG emissions through the use of environmentally friendly approaches to achieve the Paris Agreement objectives.}, }
@article {pmid35095992, year = {2021}, author = {Shi, N and Naudiyal, N and Wang, J and Gaire, NP and Wu, Y and Wei, Y and He, J and Wang, C}, title = {Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {830119}, pmid = {35095992}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid35095828, year = {2021}, author = {Fadiji, AE and Babalola, OO and Santoyo, G and Perazzolli, M}, title = {The Potential Role of Microbial Biostimulants in the Amelioration of Climate Change-Associated Abiotic Stresses on Crops.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {829099}, pmid = {35095828}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Crop plants are more often exposed to abiotic stresses in the current age of fast-evolving climate change. This includes exposure to extreme and unpredictable changes in climatic conditions, phytosanitary hazards, and cultivation conditions, which results in drastic losses in worldwide agricultural productions. Plants coexist with microbial symbionts, some of which play key roles in the ecosystem and plant processes. The application of microbial biostimulants, which take advantage of symbiotic relationships, is a long-term strategy for improving plant productivity and performance, even in the face of climate change-associated stresses. Beneficial filamentous fungi, yeasts, and bacteria are examples of microbial biostimulants, which can boost the growth, yield, nutrition and stress tolerance in plants. This paper highlights recent information about the role of microbial biostimulants and their potential application in mitigating the abiotic stresses occurring on crop plants due to climate change. A critical evaluation for their efficient use under diverse climatic conditions is also made. Currently, accessible products generally improve cultural conditions, but their action mechanisms are mostly unknown, and their benefits are frequently inconsistent. Thus, further studies that could lead to the more precisely targeted products are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid35095022, year = {2022}, author = {Sakatani, M}, title = {[The role of reproductive biology in SDGs] Global warming and cattle reproduction: Will increase in cattle numbers progress to global warming?.}, journal = {The Journal of reproduction and development}, volume = {68}, number = {2}, pages = {90-95}, pmid = {35095022}, issn = {1348-4400}, mesh = {Animals ; Biology ; Cattle ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Reproduction ; Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {The livestock industry produces a large amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) that cause global warming. A high percentage of GHG emissions are derived from cattle and has been suggested to be a factor in global warming. With the global increase in the consumption of livestock products, the number of farm animals has increased. In addition, the reduction in productivity and reproductive capacity of cattle has resulted in accelerated GHG emissions. In a high-temperature environment, the pregnancy rate decreases, leading to an increase in animals that do not contribute to production. Consequently, GHG emission per unit product increases, thereby accelerating global warming. To reduce this environmental impact, it is important to improve the breeding efficiency of cattle by the use of reproductive technology and, thus, reduce the number of non-productive animals. Thus, reproductive biology plays a major role in mitigating global warming related to the livestock industry.}, }
@article {pmid35092783, year = {2022}, author = {Ansah, MK and Chen, X and Yang, H}, title = {A holistic environmental and economic design optimization of low carbon buildings considering climate change and confounding factors.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {821}, number = {}, pages = {153442}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153442}, pmid = {35092783}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {The low carbon building design has become critical given the urgent need to reduce global carbon emissions. Reducing operational energy use through multi-objective optimizations used to be a common approach, but its validity is impaired by surging embodied impacts. Therefore, a life cycle optimization becomes necessary to improve the overall carbon performance of buildings. However, current research lacks an application of multi-objective optimizations to explore the energy use, carbon emission and cost considering both embodied and operational impacts. Impacts of confounding design factors and climate change on achieving low carbon designs are also not sufficiently revealed by existing studies. To address these gaps, this study: (i) proposes a parametric design optimization method for low carbon buildings considering cost-effectiveness, (ii) explores the impacts of confounding factors on achieving low carbon designs and (iii) evaluates the impact of climate change on the life cycle performance of buildings with proper scenario assumptions. A case study is conducted to explore passive design parameters and integrated photovoltaic (PV) applications to reduce the energy use and carbon emissions in a cost-effective approach. The joint optimization of embodied and operational impacts can reduce the energy use, carbon emission and cost by 42%, 58% and 32%, respectively. Also, variation of confounding factors can lead to different optimized designs with carbon reduction difference up to 75%. The results also show that global warming will lead to higher energy use and carbon emissions in tropical regions within the near future, while stringent mitigation strategies aligned with RCP 2.6 can reverse the trend after two decades.}, }
@article {pmid35092590, year = {2022}, author = {Ali, NIM and Aiyub, K and Lam, KC and Abas, A}, title = {A bibliometric review on the inter-connection between climate change and rice farming.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {21}, pages = {30892-30907}, pmid = {35092590}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {GGP-2017-016//Geran Galakan Penyelidikan research grant/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; Bibliometrics ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Humans ; *Oryza ; }, abstract = {Rice is an important cereal and a staple food in many countries in the world. Climate change is a significant challenge that affects paddy production and threatens food security. However, research and development in this area continue to work to ensure the supply of rice fulfils the demands of the population. The study aims to analyse the transformation of international research power in trends in climate change that threaten food security (rice) worldwide. This study evaluates existing publications, especially research works from the period 1970 to 2020. The Web of Science database and the VOSviewer software were used together to generate a systematic analysis. A total of 1181 publications on climate change and paddy production were identified, written by 2249 authors from 56 countries. The highest number of publications was from China with 240 publications with 4609 citations, followed by India, with 225 publications and 2070 citations. Yield and adaptation are the most frequently used keywords that reflect this field's current significant research direction. Besides that, developing countries have received greater attention from researchers to focus on science, agriculture, climatology, and agriculture engineering as their domains. Therefore, socio-economic aspects should also be highlighted to raise awareness of the dangers of climate change and improve the farmers' economy by increasing paddy production. Attention was given by all countries globally, especially by researchers and stakeholders who need to plan holistic policies and strategies to encourage sustainable rice production and at the same time reduce the impact of climate change worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid35092572, year = {2022}, author = {Ginbo, T and Di Corato, L and Hoffmann, R}, title = {Correction to: Investing in climate change adaptation and mitigation: A methodological review of real-options studies.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {51}, number = {4}, pages = {1090}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-021-01700-0}, pmid = {35092572}, issn = {1654-7209}, }
@article {pmid35085626, year = {2022}, author = {He, L and Xu, Y and Li, J and Zhang, Y and Liu, Y and Lyu, H and Wang, Y and Tang, X and Wang, S and Zhao, X and Yang, S}, title = {Biochar mitigated more N-related global warming potential in rice season than that in wheat season: An investigation from ten-year biochar-amended rice-wheat cropping system of China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {821}, number = {}, pages = {153344}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153344}, pmid = {35085626}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Charcoal ; China ; Global Warming ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Oryza ; Seasons ; Soil ; Triticum ; }, abstract = {Rice-wheat cropping system (RWCS), the major rice-based cropping system, constitutes a significant source of N-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emission due to the unique wet-dry alternation process. Biochar is often highlighted as a potential solution for reducing fertilizer N losses, hence, understanding its effects on Ngr emissions (mainly NH3 and N2O) under wet-dry conditions is critical to inform strategies for GHG mitigation. This study investigated the responses of NH3 and N2O emissions to biochar amendments during rice and wheat seasons based on in situ measurements under ten-year successive straw biochar application in RWCS. Our results indicated that 43.7% and 89.9% of N2O and NH3 emissions were emitted during rice season and 56.3% and 10.1% during wheat season, respectively. Long-term biochar amendment was found to play significant role in mitigating NH3 emissions (38.6-43.9%), which could be attributed to the disappearance of liming effect of aged-biochar on flooding water and decreased NH4[+] concentrations in the soil. However, considerable variation of N2O emissions were observed in RWCS. Biochar showed a significant decreasing effect on the net global warming potential related to N2O and NH3 emissions (GWPN) in rice season (16.1-89.6%), and slight increased tendency in wheat season (1.43-13.1%) primarily due to its positive effects on N2O emission. Biochar amendment mainly BC22.5, significantly increased above-ground yields by 9.22% in rice season. Thus, it is a low carbon-producing and sustainable crop management method that can support crop production, C sequestration, and GHG mitigation in rice season under RWCS from the viewpoint of the Ngr mitigation. Our results suggest that emission patterns of N2O and NH3 varied with wet-dry alternation under the disturbance of long-term biochar amendment in RWCS; moreover, long-term biochar application exhibited significant potential for mitigating soil Ngr losses in rice season for RWCS.}, }
@article {pmid35084804, year = {2022}, author = {Groner, VP and Nicholas, O and Mabhaudhi, T and Slotow, R and Akçakaya, HR and Mace, GM and Pearson, RG}, title = {Climate change, land cover change, and overharvesting threaten a widely used medicinal plant in South Africa.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {32}, number = {4}, pages = {e2545}, pmid = {35084804}, issn = {1939-5582}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 205200/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Amaryllidaceae/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Humans ; Medicine, Traditional/methods ; Plants, Medicinal/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Poverty ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {Medicinal plants contribute substantially to the well-being of people in large parts of the world, providing traditional medicine and supporting livelihoods from trading plant parts, which is especially significant for women in low-income communities. However, the availability of wild medicinal plants is increasingly threatened; for example, the Natal Lily (Clivia miniata), which is one of the most widely traded plants in informal medicine markets in South Africa, lost over 40% of individuals over the last 90 years. Understanding the species' response to individual and multiple pressures is essential for prioritizing and planning conservation actions. To gain this understanding, we simulated the future range and abundance of C. miniata by coupling Species Distribution Models with a metapopulation model (RAMAS-GIS). We contrasted scenarios of climate change (RCP2.6 vs. RCP8.5), land cover change (intensification vs. expansion), and harvesting (only juveniles vs. all life-stages). All our scenarios pointed to continuing declines in suitable habitat and abundance by the 2050s. When acting independently, climate change, land cover change, and harvesting each reduced the projected abundance substantially, with land cover change causing the most pronounced declines. Harvesting individuals from all life stages affected the projected metapopulation size more negatively than extracting only juveniles. When the three pressures acted together, declines of suitable habitat and abundance accelerated but uncertainties were too large to identify whether pressures acted synergistically, additively, or antagonistically. Our results suggest that conservation should prioritize the protection of suitable habitat and ensure sustainable harvesting to support a viable metapopulation under realistic levels of climate change. Inadequate management of C. miniata populations in the wild will likely have negative consequences for the well-being of people relying on this ecosystem service, and we expect there may be comparable consequences relating to other medicinal plants in different parts of the world.}, }
@article {pmid35082804, year = {2021}, author = {Jiang, R and Zou, M and Qin, Y and Tan, G and Huang, S and Quan, H and Zhou, J and Liao, H}, title = {Modeling of the Potential Geographical Distribution of Three Fritillaria Species Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {749838}, pmid = {35082804}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Fritillaria species, a well-known Chinese traditional medicine for more than 2,000 years, have become rare resources due to excessive harvesting. In order to balance the economical requirement and ecological protection of Fritillaria species, it is necessary to determine (1) the important environmental variables that were responsible for the spatial distribution, (2) distribution change in response to climate change in the future, (3) ecological niche overlap between various Fritillaria species, and (4) the correlation between spatial distribution and phylogenies as well. In this study, the areas with potential ecological suitability for Fritillaria cirrhosa, Fritillaria unibracteata, and Fritillaria przewalskii were predicted using MaxEnt based on the current occurrence records and bioclimatic variables. The result indicated that precipitation and elevation were the most important environmental variables for the three species. Moreover, the current suitable habitats of F. cirrhosa, F. unibracteata, and F. przewalskii encompassed 681,951, 481,607, and 349,199 km[2], respectively. Under the scenario of the highest concentration of greenhouse gas emission (SSP585), the whole suitable habitats of F. cirrhosa and F. przewalskii reach the maximum from 2021 to 2100, while those of F. unibracteata reach the maximum from 2021 to 2100 under the scenario of moderate emission (SSP370) from 2021 to 2100. The MaxEnt data were also used to predict the ecological niche overlap, and thus high overlap occurring among three Fritillaria species was observed. The niche overlap of three Fritillaria species was related to the phylogenetic analysis despite the non-significance (P > 0.05), indicating that spatial distribution was one of the factors that contributed to the speciation diversification. Additionally, we predicted species-specific habitats to decrease habitat competition. Overall, the information obtained in this study provided new insight into the potential distribution and ecological niche of three species for the conservation and management in the future.}, }
@article {pmid35082360, year = {2022}, author = {Rota, F and Casazza, G and Genova, G and Midolo, G and Prosser, F and Bertolli, A and Wilhalm, T and Nascimbene, J and Wellstein, C}, title = {Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1398}, pmid = {35082360}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to threaten endemic plants in the Alps. In this context, the factors that may modulate species responses are rarely investigated at a local scale. We analyzed eight alpine narrow endemics of the Dolomites (southeastern Alps) under different predicted climate change scenarios at fine spatial resolutions. We tested possible differences in elevation, topographic heterogeneity and velocity of climate change among areas of gained, lost, or stable climatic habitat. The negative impact of climate change ranged from moderate to severe, depending on scenario and species. Generally, range loss occurred at the lowest elevations, while gained and stable areas were located at highest elevations. For six of the species, climate change velocity had higher values in stable and gained areas than in lost ones. Our findings support the role of topographic heterogeneity in maintaining climatic microrefugia, however, the peculiar topography of the Dolomites, characterized by high altitude plateaus, resulted in high climate change velocity in areas of projected future climatic suitability. Our study supports the usefulness of multiple predictors of spatio-temporal range dynamics for regional climate-adapted management and eventual assisted colonization planning to not overlook or overestimate the potential impact of climate change locally.}, }
@article {pmid35081123, year = {2022}, author = {Grüter, R and Trachsel, T and Laube, P and Jaisli, I}, title = {Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {e0261976}, pmid = {35081123}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Anacardium/*growth &amp; development ; Climate Change ; Coffea/*growth &amp; development ; Coffee/growth &amp; development ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; Persea/*growth &amp; development ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Coffee, cashew and avocado are of high socio-economic importance in many tropical smallholder farming systems around the globe. As plantation crops with a long lifespan, their cultivation requires long-term planning. The evaluation of climate change impacts on their biophysical suitability is therefore essential for developing adaptation measures and selecting appropriate varieties or crops. In this study, we modelled the current and future suitability of coffee arabica, cashew and avocado on a global scale based on climatic and soil requirements of the three crops. We used climate outputs of 14 global circulation models based on three emission scenarios to model the future (2050) climate change impacts on the crops both globally and in the main producing countries. For all three crops, climatic factors, mainly long dry seasons, mean temperatures (high and low), low minimum temperatures and annual precipitation (high and low), were more restrictive for the global extent of suitable growing regions than land and soil parameters, which were primarily low soil pH, unfavourable soil texture and steep slopes. We found shifts in suitable growing regions due to climate change with both regions of future expansion and contraction for all crops investigated. Coffee proved to be most vulnerable, with negative climate impacts dominating in all main producing regions. For both cashew and avocado, areas suitable for cultivation are expected to expand globally while in most main producing countries, the areas of highest suitability may decrease. The study reveals that climate change adaptation will be necessary in most major producing regions of all three crops. At high latitudes and high altitudes, however, they may all profit from increasing minimum temperatures. The study presents the first global assessment of climate change impacts on cashew and avocado suitability.}, }
@article {pmid35079883, year = {2022}, author = {Baul, TK and Peuly, TA and Nandi, R and Kar, S and Karmakar, S}, title = {Role of Homestead Forests in Adaptation to Climate Change: A Study on Households' Perceptions and Relevant Factors in Bandarban Hill District, Bangladesh.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {69}, number = {5}, pages = {906-918}, pmid = {35079883}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Homestead forests play an important role in climate change adaptation and mitigation. This study investigated homestead forest owners' perceptions on climate change and associated impacts, as well as the role that homestead forests could play to enhance households' climate adaptation in Bandarban hill district of Bangladesh. Methods involved randomly surveying a total of 176 homestead households at three different hill altitudes: low, medium, and high. We also analyzed the meteorological data on local rainfall and temperature for the period of 1990 to 2019. Results showed that most (76-94%) of the homestead forest owners perceived an increasing erratic pattern of annual temperature and rainfall which was supported by the analysis of local meteorological data. Forest owners´ perceptions towards changes in tree phenology, increase in food insecurity, landslides, and pest infestation, and decrease in crop production, soil fertility, and seasonal streamflow were revealed as pieces of evidence of climate change impacts that varied significantly with hill altitudes and associated ecosystems. About 66% to 97% of the housheolds perceived that homestead forests could play a pivotal role in enhancing their capacity to adapt with the changing climate by supplying diverse products, services, and environmental benefits. Understanding and perceptions of the environmental benefits of homestead forests also significantly varied with the type of households´ construction, income, and literacy of the household members. Our results will help policymakers to ensure these small-scale homestead forests are conserved since they could also provide multiple environmental benefits e.g., carbon sequestration in addition to enhancing community climate adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid35077494, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, N and Qu, Y and Song, Z and Chen, Y and Jiang, J}, title = {Responses and sensitivities of maize phenology to climate change from 1971 to 2020 in Henan Province, China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {e0262289}, pmid = {35077494}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production ; Models, Statistical ; Weather ; Zea mays/anatomy &amp; histology/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects many aspects of the physiological and biochemical processes of growing maize and ultimately its yield. A comprehensive climate suitability model is proposed that quantifies the effects of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind in different phenological stages of maize. It is calibrated using weather and yield data from China's Henan Province. The comprehensive suitability model showed the capability of correctly hindcasting observed temporal and spatial changes in maize phenology in response to climatic factors. The predicted yield based on the suitability model can well match the recorded field yield very well from 1971-2020. The results of correlation showed that the yields are more closely related to multi-weather factors, temperature and precipitation than to solar radiation and wind. The sensitivity analysis illustrates that temperature and precipitation are the dominant weather factors affecting yield changes based on a direct differentiation method. The comprehensive suitability model can provide a scientific support and analysis tool for predicting grain production considering climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid35075280, year = {2022}, author = {Rothenberg, ME}, title = {Linking the allergy epidemic to climate change.}, journal = {Nature immunology}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {149}, doi = {10.1038/s41590-021-01119-5}, pmid = {35075280}, issn = {1529-2916}, mesh = {Allergens/immunology ; Climate Change ; Epidemics/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*etiology/*immunology ; }, }
@article {pmid35074593, year = {2022}, author = {Razi, MAM and Daud, HZBH and Mokhtar, A and Mahamud, M and Rahmat, SN and Al-Gheethi, AA}, title = {Climate change, tsunami and biodiversity endangered at the South China Sea, past, current and prediction models for the future: A comprehensive study.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {175}, number = {}, pages = {113255}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.113255}, pmid = {35074593}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; Estuaries ; *Tsunamis ; }, abstract = {In this study, the climate change, tsunami and biodiversity for 336 km coastline endangered at the South China Sea was investigated with the review for the past, current and prediction models for the future. The hydraulic study of the coastal area was conducted using a well-established 2D numerical model suite Delft3D. The study revealed that the generated earthquakes at the convergence zone in the last century are small (Mw7.3), the possibility that a megathrust earthquake event in the SCS basin occurs in the future. The study area comprises a narrow strip of vegetation notably dominated by Casuarina equisetifolia with other coastal plants. Mangrove forests are found along the coastline and estuaries that are overlaid with marine alluvial soils. The current paper is the first comprehensive study of the South China Sea, and the findings increase the awareness among the public to understand the risk associated with environmental pollution.}, }
@article {pmid35073410, year = {2022}, author = {Agache, I and Sampath, V and Aguilera, J and Akdis, CA and Akdis, M and Barry, M and Bouagnon, A and Chinthrajah, S and Collins, W and Dulitzki, C and Erny, B and Gomez, J and Goshua, A and Jutel, M and Kizer, KW and Kline, O and LaBeaud, AD and Pali-Schöll, I and Perrett, KP and Peters, RL and Plaza, MP and Prunicki, M and Sack, T and Salas, RN and Sindher, SB and Sokolow, SH and Thiel, C and Veidis, E and Wray, BD and Traidl-Hoffmann, C and Witt, C and Nadeau, KC}, title = {Climate change and global health: A call to more research and more action.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {77}, number = {5}, pages = {1389-1407}, doi = {10.1111/all.15229}, pmid = {35073410}, issn = {1398-9995}, support = {P01 HL152953/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; P01 HL152953/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, abstract = {There is increasing understanding, globally, that climate change and increased pollution will have a profound and mostly harmful effect on human health. This review brings together international experts to describe both the direct (such as heat waves) and indirect (such as vector-borne disease incidence) health impacts of climate change. These impacts vary depending on vulnerability (i.e., existing diseases) and the international, economic, political, and environmental context. This unique review also expands on these issues to address a third category of potential longer-term impacts on global health: famine, population dislocation, and environmental justice and education. This scholarly resource explores these issues fully, linking them to global health in urban and rural settings in developed and developing countries. The review finishes with a practical discussion of action that health professionals around the world in our field can yet take.}, }
@article {pmid35073306, year = {2022}, author = {Dickman, E and Backler, C and Berg, CD and Komandt, M and Schiller, J}, title = {Climate Change and Oncology Nursing: A Call to Action.}, journal = {Clinical journal of oncology nursing}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {109-113}, doi = {10.1188/22.CJON.109-113}, pmid = {35073306}, issn = {1538-067X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Humans ; *Oncology Nursing ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a public health crisis that amplifies exposure to known carcinogens, leading to increased cases of cancer and other diseases. This clear link is a powerful reason for all oncology nurses concerned with cancer prevention and treatment to be involved in climate change solutions. The purpose of this review is to bring awareness to the consequences climate change has on the incidence and mortality of cancer, how it affects people living with cancer, and how oncology nurses can help mitigate these suboptimal outcomes.&amp;nbsp.}, }
@article {pmid35073249, year = {2022}, author = {Cromar, KR and Anenberg, SC and Balmes, JR and Fawcett, AA and Ghazipura, M and Gohlke, JM and Hashizume, M and Howard, P and Lavigne, E and Levy, K and Madrigano, J and Martinich, JA and Mordecai, EA and Rice, MB and Saha, S and Scovronick, NC and Sekercioglu, F and Svendsen, ER and Zaitchik, BF and Ewart, G}, title = {Global Health Impacts for Economic Models of Climate Change: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {1203-1212}, pmid = {35073249}, issn = {2325-6621}, support = {P30 ES019776/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R35 GM133439/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; T42 OH008429/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Climate Change ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Models, Economic ; }, abstract = {Rationale: Avoiding excess health damages attributable to climate change is a primary motivator for policy interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the health benefits of climate mitigation, as included in the policy assessment process, have been estimated without much input from health experts. Objectives: In accordance with recommendations from the National Academies in a 2017 report on approaches to update the social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHG), an expert panel of 26 health researchers and climate economists gathered for a virtual technical workshop in May 2021 to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis and recommend improvements to the estimation of health impacts in economic-climate models. Methods: Regionally resolved effect estimates of unit increases in temperature on net all-cause mortality risk were generated through random-effects pooling of studies identified through a systematic review. Results: Effect estimates and associated uncertainties varied by global region, but net increases in mortality risk associated with increased average annual temperatures (ranging from 0.1% to 1.1% per 1°C) were estimated for all global regions. Key recommendations for the development and utilization of health damage modules were provided by the expert panel and included the following: not relying on individual methodologies in estimating health damages; incorporating a broader range of cause-specific mortality impacts; improving the climate parameters available in economic models; accounting for socioeconomic trajectories and adaptation factors when estimating health damages; and carefully considering how air pollution impacts should be incorporated in economic-climate models. Conclusions: This work provides an example of how subject-matter experts can work alongside climate economists in making continued improvements to SC-GHG estimates.}, }
@article {pmid35071767, year = {2021}, author = {Musara, JP and Tibugari, H and Moyo, B and Mutizira, C}, title = {Crop-livestock integration practices, knowledge, and attitudes among smallholder farmers: Hedging against climate change-induced shocks in semi-arid Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Open life sciences}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {1330-1340}, pmid = {35071767}, issn = {2391-5412}, abstract = {Domestic and international crops and livestock trade remain fragile among Zimbabwean smallholder farmers. Commercial crop-livestock integration in climate change vulnerable areas is low and sparsely documented. Practice, knowledge, and attitude indicators influencing participation of smallholder farmers in crop-livestock integrated platforms as a hedge against climate change-induced risks and uncertainties were assessed. A survey with 240 farmers in Insiza district, Matabeleland province, Zimbabwe was conducted. A modified knowledge, attitude, and perception framework was used to analyze data from six wards supported by World Vision through supplementary livelihood programs on crop-livestock integration. Conventional crop-livestock (63%), mixed crops-livestock (25%), and traditional grains-livestock (12%) options were dominant. There was a thin presence of stakeholders with a limited number of local buyers, contracting companies, and agro-dealers who participate on these platforms. Farmers have the knowledge, positive attitude, and motivated perceptions about the potential of traditional grains-livestock mechanisms to reduce climate change welfare compromising factors. Unbalanced policies, limited financing, and uncompetitive marketing channels limit the uptake of this option. Traditional grains-livestock alternatives should be supported in semi-arid environments to reduce food, income, and nutrition insecurity. Public-private partnerships should establish value addition systems to increase the market size of traditional grains-livestock products and enhance commercialization.}, }
@article {pmid35069656, year = {2021}, author = {Olanrewaju, OS and Oyatomi, O and Babalola, OO and Abberton, M}, title = {Breeding Potentials of Bambara Groundnut for Food and Nutrition Security in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {798993}, pmid = {35069656}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Constant production of quality food should be a norm in any community, but climate change, increasing population, and unavailability of land for farming affect food production. As a result, food scarcity is affecting some communities, especially in the developing world. Finding a stable solution to this problem is a major cause of concern for researchers. Synergistic application of molecular marker techniques with next generation sequencing (NGS) technologies can unlock the potentials hidden in most crop genomes for improving yield and food availability. Most crops such as Bambara groundnut (BGN), Winged bean, and African yam bean are underutilized. These underutilized crops can compete with the major crops such as cowpea, soybean, maize, and rice, in areas of nutrition, ability to withstand drought stress, economic importance, and food production. One of these underutilized crops, BGN [Vigna subterranea (L.), Verdc.], is an indigenous African legume and can survive in tropical climates and marginal soils. In this review, we focus on the roles of BGN and the opportunities it possesses in tackling food insecurity and its benefits to local farmers. We will discuss BGN's potential impact on global food production and how the advances in NGS technologies can enhance its production.}, }
@article {pmid35067251, year = {2023}, author = {Power, E and McCarthy, N and Kelly, I and Cannon, M and Cotter, D}, title = {Climate change and mental health: time for action and advocacy.}, journal = {Irish journal of psychological medicine}, volume = {40}, number = {1}, pages = {6-8}, doi = {10.1017/ipm.2021.70}, pmid = {35067251}, issn = {2051-6967}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Mental Health ; Pandemics ; *COVID-19/epidemiology ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses an existential threat to our planet and our health. We explore the intersections of climate change and mental health which has been under-recognised to date. Climate change can affect mental health directly through the effects of extreme weather events such as heat, drought and flooding, and indirectly through increasing rates of migration and inequality. Vulnerable individuals with neuropsychiatric disorders will be particularly at risk. Emerging evidence is also showing effects of air pollution on brain development. Mitigation efforts related to reducing carbon emissions will have both direct and indirect effects on mental health. A further consideration demonstrated by the COVID-19 pandemic is that the spread of infectious disease can have substantial effects on the mental health of the population. With climate change and biodiversity loss, pandemics could recur in the future with increasing frequency. It is now essential that mental health professionals be equipped as agents for climate action.}, }
@article {pmid35066046, year = {2022}, author = {Perera, N and Lokupitiya, E and Halwatura, D and Udagedara, S}, title = {Quantification of blue carbon in tropical salt marshes and their role in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {820}, number = {}, pages = {153313}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153313}, pmid = {35066046}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Carbon ; Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Soil ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE) display a promising potential to act as natural carbon sinks in climate change mitigation. Although growing interest in wetland carbon has intensified the global level carbon stock estimation studies, large knowledge gaps and uncertainties remain, particularly in tropical salt marshes in the South and Southeast Asian regions. Therefore, the current study aims to quantify the organic carbon stocks in the salt marsh habitats on the Northwest coast of Sri Lanka and to showcase the relevance of salt marsh carbon in local and regional contexts. Vegetation and soil up to a depth of 50 cm were sampled from four sites representing the Wedithalathive Nature Reserve (WNR). Species-specific allometric relationships developed for the major succulent halophytic species indicated a significant positive correlation between dry biomass and plant height. The loss-on-ignition (LOI) technique was applied in combination with a carbon conversion factor to calculate the soil organic carbon (SOC) content across 4 depth intervals. The study provided an average total organic carbon (TOC) storage of 73 ± 14.47 Mg C ha[-1] up to a depth of 50 cm, in which the aboveground vegetation accounted for ~2% share. Sri Lankan salt marshes hold 2.01 Tg of organic carbon and directly reflect their potential for inclusion in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This has been the first comprehensive study on salt marsh blue carbon stocks in Sri Lanka and the findings of this study will strengthen the knowledge base on regional and global saltmarsh carbon stocks and their potential role in climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid35064318, year = {2022}, author = {Zhao, F and Lei, J and Wang, R and Zhang, Q and Qi, Y and Zhang, K and Guo, Q and Wang, H}, title = {Environmental determination of spring wheat yield in a climatic transition zone under global warming.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {481-491}, pmid = {35064318}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {42005097//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; Climate ; *Global Warming ; Seasons ; *Triticum ; Water ; }, abstract = {Understanding environmental determination of crop yield plays a critical role in agricultural. management in resource-limited areas. The climatic transition zone was a naturally ideal place to study. the relations between environmental factors and crop yield, due to its large annual variability of climatic factors and high speed of temperature increase under global warming. Our objectives were to identify the most critical environmental factor in determining spring wheat yield and analyze the convergence and divergence of water-yield relations for spring wheat in a typical climatic transition zone (semi-arid area). The study was conducted at two locations, Dingxi and Pengyang in Northwest China, with a long-term experiment (1987-2018) and two short-term irrigation experiments. Meanwhile, data of water use and spring wheat yield was collected from a series of previously published literature in the study area. The highest spring wheat yield was obtained under year pattern with higher soil water content at sowing (SWCS) and lower atmospheric dryness condition (ADC, the difference between reference evapotranspiration and precipitation during spring wheat growing season). SWCS was more important than precipitation during the growing season (PGS) in determining spring wheat yield in the study area. The relations between available water supply, water use, and spring wheat yield were convergence. However, SWCS had an impact on the relationship between yield and PGS and SWCS-yield relation was affected by ADC. We concluded that precipitation in 7 months before sowing was the dominant factor determining spring wheat yield in the climatic transition zone under global warming whereas the impact of high atmospheric evaporative demand resulted from the increasing temperature on crop yields and SWCS-yield relation must be taken into account for the analysis of environmental determination of spring wheat yield.}, }
@article {pmid35061854, year = {2022}, author = {Rettie, FM and Gayler, S and K D Weber, T and Tesfaye, K and Streck, T}, title = {Climate change impact on wheat and maize growth in Ethiopia: A multi-model uncertainty analysis.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {e0262951}, pmid = {35061854}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Ethiopia ; *Models, Biological ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Ethiopia's economy is dominated by agriculture which is mainly rain-fed and subsistence. Climate change is expected to have an adverse impact particularly on crop production. Previous studies have shown large discrepancies in the magnitude and sometimes in the direction of the impact on crop production. We assessed the impact of climate change on growth and yield of maize and wheat in Ethiopia using a multi-crop model ensemble. The multi-model ensemble (n = 48) was set up using the agroecosystem modelling framework Expert-N. The framework is modular which facilitates combining different submodels for plant growth and soil processes. The multi-model ensemble was driven by climate change projections representing the mid of the century (2021-2050) from ten contrasting climate models downscaled to finer resolution. The contributions of different sources of uncertainty in crop yield prediction were quantified. The sensitivity of crop yield to elevated CO2, increased temperature, changes in precipitations and N fertilizer were also assessed. Our results indicate that grain yields were very sensitive to changes in [CO2], temperature and N fertilizer amounts where the responses were higher for wheat than maize. The response to change in precipitation was weak, which we attribute to the high water holding capacity of the soils due to high organic carbon contents at the study sites. This may provide the sufficient buffering capacity for extended time periods with low amounts of precipitation. Under the changing climate, wheat productivity will be a major challenge with a 36 to 40% reduction in grain yield by 2050 while the impact on maize was modest. A major part of the uncertainty in the projected impact could be attributed to differences in the crop growth models. A considerable fraction of the uncertainty could also be traced back to different soil water dynamics modeling approaches in the model ensemble, which is often ignored. Uncertainties varied among the studied crop species and cultivars as well. The study highlights significant impacts of climate change on wheat yield in Ethiopia whereby differences in crop growth models causes the large part of the uncertainties.}, }
@article {pmid35061743, year = {2022}, author = {Gahbauer, MA and Parker, SR and Wu, JX and Harpur, C and Bateman, BL and Whitaker, DM and Tate, DP and Taylor, L and Lepage, D}, title = {Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {e0262116}, pmid = {35061743}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Parks, Recreational ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {National parks often serve as a cornerstone for a country's species and ecosystem conservation efforts. However, despite the protection these sites afford, climate change is expected to drive a substantial change in their bird assemblages. We used species distribution models to predict the change in environmental suitability (i.e., how well environmental conditions explain the presence of a species) of 49 Canadian national parks during summer and winter for 434 bird species under a 2°C warming scenario, anticipated to occur in Canada around the mid-21st century. We compared these to existing species distributions in the 2010s, and classified suitability projections for each species at each park as potential extirpation, worsening, stable, improving, or potential colonisation. Across all parks, and both seasons, 70% of the projections indicate change, including a 25% turnover in summer assemblages and 30% turnover in winter assemblages. The majority of parks are projected to have increases in species richness and functional traits in winter, compared to a mix of increases and decreases in both in summer. However, some changes are expected to vary by region, such as Arctic region parks being likely to experience the most potential colonisation, while some of the Mixedwood Plains and Atlantic Maritime region parks may experience the greatest turnover and potential extirpation in summer if management actions are not taken to mitigate some of these losses. Although uncertainty exists around the precise rate and impacts of climate change, our results indicate that conservation practices that assume stationarity of environmental conditions will become untenable. We propose general guidance to help managers adapt their conservation actions to consider the potentially substantive changes in bird assemblages that are projected, including managing for persistence and change.}, }
@article {pmid35061707, year = {2022}, author = {Ullah, S and Syed, NM and Gang, T and Noor, RS and Ahmad, S and Waqas, MM and Shah, AN and Ullah, S}, title = {Recent global warming as a proximate cause of deforestation and forest degradation in northern Pakistan.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {e0260607}, pmid = {35061707}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Instrumental climatological records such as weather stations data of northern areas of Pakistan are not sufficient to assess the forest extreme events reliably. To understand the past climatic variability, tree ring width based climatic reconstruction is the best alternative to trace climate variability that goes back in time. Quercus Incana is the most sensitive species to drought and climatic variation in northern Pakistan. However, very little research quantifies the rate of ongoing climatic changes. A total of 65 tree cores were collected from two sites to understand the radial growth of Q. Incana to extreme drought events. The radial growth is mainly affected by high temperatures during May-July. In addition, radial growth exhibits a positive correlation with February-June precipitation while it is negatively correlated with the September precipitation. The radial growth decrease, particularly in harsh climatic conditions. The reconstructed tree ring record was strongly coherent with the May-June self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) and reliable in reconstructing drought variability for the period 1750-2014. During the past 264 years, wet periods were found during 1980-2010, 1812-1836, and 1754-1760, while dry periods were found during 1896-1922, 1864-1876, and 1784-1788. Our reconstruction explains 39.8% of the scPDSI variance. The extreme drought and wet years we arrived at were in close agreement with the drought and wet periods that occurred in northern Pakistan. Wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.2-2.5, 3.3, 3-4, 16.7, 16.8, and 68-78.8 years. Hence it is concluded that deforestation and forest degradation rate increased with extreme drought and wet years. Overall, the variation of drought in northern Pakistan seems to have been affected due to El Nino south oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, or Atlantic multi-decadal oscillations.}, }
@article {pmid35060364, year = {2022}, author = {Lauletta, M and Moisé, E and La Grutta, S and Cilluffo, G and Piacentini, G and Ferrante, G and Peroni, DG and Di Cicco, M}, title = {Climate advocacy among Italian pediatric pulmonologists: A national survey on the effects of climate change on respiratory allergies.}, journal = {Pediatric pulmonology}, volume = {57}, number = {4}, pages = {862-870}, pmid = {35060364}, issn = {1099-0496}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Allergens ; Child ; Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/etiology ; Male ; Pulmonologists ; *Respiratory Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is expected to negatively impact respiratory health due to air pollution and increased aeroallergen exposure. Children are among the most vulnerable populations due to high ventilation rates, small peripheral airways, and developing respiratory and immunological systems. To assess the current knowledge among Italian pediatric pulmonologists on the potential effects of CC on pediatric respiratory allergic diseases, a national survey was launched online from February 2020 to February 2021. The members of the Italian Pediatric Respiratory Society (SIMRI) were contacted by email and 117 questionnaires were returned (response rate 16.4%). 72.6% of respondents were females, 53.8% were academic pediatricians, 42.7% had been working >10 years. Most of the participants were aware of the potential health effects of CC and stated that they had noticed an increase in the incidence (90.6%) and severity (67.5%) of allergic respiratory diseases among their patients. About 61% and 41% of participants respectively felt that there had been an increase in the number of children sensitized to pollen and molds. When applying latent class analysis to identify the features characterizing participants with greater awareness and knowledge of CC-related health effects, two classes were identified: almost 60% of the participants were labeled as "poor knowledge" and those with greater awareness were older, had longer work experience, and were those using the Internet to gather information about CC. There is urgent need to increase pediatricians' awareness of the detrimental effects of CC on children's respiratory health and integrate them in the educational programs of healthcare professionals.}, }
@article {pmid35060228, year = {2022}, author = {de Aquino, SO and Kiwuka, C and Tournebize, R and Gain, C and Marraccini, P and Mariac, C and Bethune, K and Couderc, M and Cubry, P and Andrade, AC and Lepelley, M and Darracq, O and Crouzillat, D and Anten, N and Musoli, P and Vigouroux, Y and de Kochko, A and Manel, S and François, O and Poncet, V}, title = {Adaptive potential of Coffea canephora from Uganda in response to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {1800-1819}, doi = {10.1111/mec.16360}, pmid = {35060228}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Coffea/genetics ; Genetic Markers ; Plant Breeding ; Uganda ; }, abstract = {Understanding vulnerabilities of plant populations to climate change could help preserve their biodiversity and reveal new elite parents for future breeding programmes. To this end, landscape genomics is a useful approach for assessing putative adaptations to future climatic conditions, especially in long-lived species such as trees. We conducted a population genomics study of 207 Coffea canephora trees from seven forests along different climate gradients in Uganda. For this, we sequenced 323 candidate genes involved in key metabolic and defence pathways in coffee. Seventy-one single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were found to be significantly associated with bioclimatic variables, and were thereby considered as putatively adaptive loci. These SNPs were linked to key candidate genes, including transcription factors, like DREB-like and MYB family genes controlling plant responses to abiotic stresses, as well as other genes of organoleptic interest, such as the DXMT gene involved in caffeine biosynthesis and a putative pest repellent. These climate-associated genetic markers were used to compute genetic offsets, predicting population responses to future climatic conditions based on local climate change forecasts. Using these measures of maladaptation to future conditions, substantial levels of genetic differentiation between present and future diversity were estimated for all populations and scenarios considered. The populations from the forests Zoka and Budongo, in the northernmost zone of Uganda, appeared to have the lowest genetic offsets under all predicted climate change patterns, while populations from Kalangala and Mabira, in the Lake Victoria region, exhibited the highest genetic offsets. The potential of these findings in terms of ex situ conservation strategies are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid35060057, year = {2022}, author = {Deng, L and Han, Z and Pu, W and Bao, R and Wang, Z and Wu, Q and Qiao, J}, title = {Impacts of Human Activities and Climate Change on Water Storage Changes in Shandong Province, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {23}, pages = {35365-35381}, pmid = {35060057}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {42101299//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; ZR2020QD011//Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province/ ; 2018M642691//Postdoctoral Research Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Water ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {The over-exploitation of water resources causes water resource depletion, which threatens water security, human life, and social and economic development. Only by clarifying the spatial pattern, changing trends, and influencing factors of water storage can we promote the rational development of water resources and relieve the pressure on water resources. However, there is still a lack of research on these aspects. In this study, the water-scarce area in Shandong Province, China, was selected to quantify the spatial and temporal changes in the terrestrial water storage (TWS) and groundwater storage (GWS) over the past 30 years. Nighttime light data were used to characterize the urbanization level (UL) and explore the effects of human activities (i.e., UL) and climate change (temperature and precipitation) on the TWS and GWS. The results show that 1) from 1990 to 2018, the overall TWS exhibited a significant decreasing trend (- 0.084 cm yr[-1]). The change trend of the GWS was consistent with that of the TWS (- 0.516 m[3] yr[-1]). Spatially, there was significant spatial heterogeneity in the trend of the TWS and GWS. At the grid and prefectural scales, the TWS mainly exhibited a downward trend in the central and western regions, and an upward trend in the eastern region of Shandong Province. For the GWS, all cities exhibited a decreasing trend at the prefectural scale, whereas 92% of the regions exhibited a decreasing trend with less spatial heterogeneity at the grid scale. 2) Precipitation was the mean factor controlling the total amount of TWS and GWS in Shandong Province. Precipitation and temperature positively affected water storage, and the UL negatively affected it. At the prefectural scale, except for a few cities which were greatly influenced by the UL, the dominant factor of the TWS and GWS was precipitation in the other cities. At the grid scale, for the TWS, precipitation was the predominant factor in 51.82% of the entire region, followed by the UL (44.14%) and temperature (4.04%). For the GWS, precipitation was the predominant factor in 55.73% of the area, and the other 44.27% of the area was mainly influenced by the UL. Overall, precipitation and the UL were the key factors affecting the TWS and GWS. The results of this study provide a theoretical and decision-making basis for the optimal allocation and sustainable use of regional water resources.}, }
@article {pmid35059223, year = {2021}, author = {Ghimire, SR and Corona, J and Parmar, R and Mahadwar, G and Srinivasan, R and Mendoza, K and Johnston, JM}, title = {Sensitivity of Riparian Buffer Designs to Climate Change-Nutrient and Sediment Loading to Streams: A Case Study in the Albemarle-Pamlico River Basins (USA) Using HAWQS.}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {13}, number = {22}, pages = {1-28}, pmid = {35059223}, issn = {2071-1050}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Riparian buffer zones (RBZs) provide multiple benefits to watershed ecosystems. We aimed to conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis of the RBZ designs to climate change nutrient and sediment loadings to streams. We designed 135 simulation scenarios starting with the six baselines RBZs (grass, urban, two-zone forest, three-zone forest, wildlife, and naturalized) in three 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds within the Albemarle-Pamlico river basin (USA). Using the hydrologic and water quality system (HAWQS), we assessed the sensitivity of the designs to five water quality indicator (WQI) parameters: dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorous (TP), total nitrogen (TN), sediment (SD), and biochemical oxygen demand (BD). To understand the climate mitigation potential of RBZs, we identified a subset of future climate change projection models of air temperature and precipitation using EPA's Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online tool. Analyses revealed optimal RBZ designs for the three watersheds. In terms of watershed ecosystem services sustainability, the optimal Urban RBZ in contemporary climate (1983-2018) reduced SD from 61-96%, TN from 34-55%, TP from 9-48%, and BD from 53-99%, and raised DO from 4-10% with respect to No-RBZ in the three watersheds. The late century's (2070-2099) extreme mean annual climate changes significantly increased the projected SD and BD; however, the addition of urban RBZs was projected to offset the climate change reducing SD from 28-94% and BD from 69-93% in the watersheds. All other types of RBZs are also projected to fully mitigate the climate change impacts on WQI parameters except three-zone RBZ.}, }
@article {pmid35058987, year = {2022}, author = {Noll, B and Filatova, T and Need, A and Taberna, A}, title = {Contextualizing cross national patterns in household climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {30-35}, pmid = {35058987}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {758014/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Understanding social and behavioral drivers and constraints of household adaptation is essential to effectively address increasing climate-induced risks. Factors shaping household adaptation are commonly treated as universal; despite an emerging understanding that adaptations are shaped by social, institutional, and cultural contexts. Using original surveys in the United States, China, Indonesia, and the Netherlands (N=3,789) - we explore variations in factors shaping households' adaptations to flooding, the costliest hazard worldwide. We find that social influence, worry, climate change beliefs, self-efficacy, and perceived costs exhibit universal effects on household adaptations, despite countries' differences. Disparities occur in the effects of response efficacy, flood experience, beliefs in governmental actions, demographics, and media, which we attribute to specific cultural or institutional characteristics. Climate adaptation policies can leverage on the revealed similarities when extrapolating best practices across countries, yet should exercise caution as context-specific socio-behavioral drivers may discourage or even reverse household adaptation motivation.}, }
@article {pmid35058958, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, J and Li, M and Yu, C and Fu, G}, title = {The Change in Environmental Variables Linked to Climate Change Has a Stronger Effect on Aboveground Net Primary Productivity Than Does Phenological Change in Alpine Grasslands.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {798633}, pmid = {35058958}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {More and more studies have focused on responses of ecosystem carbon cycling to climate change and phenological change, and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) is a primary component of global carbon cycling. However, it remains unclear whether the climate change or the phenological change has stronger effects on ANPP. In this study, we compared the effects of phenological change and climate change on ANPP during 2000-2013 across 36 alpine grassland sites on the Tibetan Plateau. Our results indicated that ANPP showed a positive relationship with plant phenology such as prolonged length of growing season and advanced start of growing season, and environmental variables such as growing season precipitation (GSP), actual vapor pressure (Ea), relative humidity (RH), and the ratio of GSP to ≥5°C accumulated temperature (GSP/AccT), respectively. The linear change trend of ANPP increased with that of GSP, Ea, RH, and GSP/AccT rather than phenology variables. Interestingly, GSP had the closer correlation with ANPP and meanwhile the linear slope of GSP had the closer correlation with that of ANPP among all the concerned variables. Therefore, climate change, mainly attributed to precipitation change, had a stronger effect on ANPP than did phenological change in alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau.}, }
@article {pmid35058957, year = {2021}, author = {García-García, I and Méndez-Cea, B and Martín-Gálvez, D and Seco, JI and Gallego, FJ and Linares, JC}, title = {Challenges and Perspectives in the Epigenetics of Climate Change-Induced Forests Decline.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {797958}, pmid = {35058957}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Forest tree species are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. As sessile organisms with long generation times, their adaptation to a local changing environment may rely on epigenetic modifications when allele frequencies are not able to shift fast enough. However, the current lack of knowledge on this field is remarkable, due to many challenges that researchers face when studying this issue. Huge genome sizes, absence of reference genomes and annotation, and having to analyze huge amounts of data are among these difficulties, which limit the current ability to understand how climate change drives tree species epigenetic modifications. In spite of this challenging framework, some insights on the relationships among climate change-induced stress and epigenomics are coming. Advances in DNA sequencing technologies and an increasing number of studies dealing with this topic must boost our knowledge on tree adaptive capacity to changing environmental conditions. Here, we discuss challenges and perspectives in the epigenetics of climate change-induced forests decline, aiming to provide a general overview of the state of the art.}, }
@article {pmid35058891, year = {2021}, author = {Hu, Y and Jiang, X and Shao, K and Tang, X and Qin, B and Gao, G}, title = {Convergency and Stability Responses of Bacterial Communities to Salinization in Arid and Semiarid Areas: Implications for Global Climate Change in Lake Ecosystems.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {741645}, pmid = {35058891}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Climate change has given rise to salinization and nutrient enrichment in lake ecosystems of arid and semiarid areas, which have posed the bacterial communities not only into an ecotone in lake ecosystems but also into an assemblage of its own unique biomes. However, responses of bacterial communities to climate-related salinization and nutrient enrichment remain unclear. In September 2019, this study scrutinized the turnover of bacterial communities along gradients of increasing salinity and nutrient by a space-for-time substitution in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China. We find that salinization rather than nutrient enrichment primarily alters bacterial communities. The homogenous selection of salinization leads to convergent response of bacterial communities, which is revealed by the combination of a decreasing β-nearest taxon index (βNTI) and a pronounced negative correlation between niche breadth and salinity. Furthermore, interspecific interactions within bacterial communities significantly differed among distinct salinity levels. Specifically, mutualistic interactions showed an increase along the salinization. In contrast, topological parameters show hump-shaped curves (average degree and density) and sunken curves (modularity, density, and average path distance), the extremums of which all appear in the high-brackish environment, hinting that bacterial communities are comparatively stable at freshwater and brine environments but are unstable in moderately high-brackish lake.}, }
@article {pmid35058461, year = {2022}, author = {Bolibar, J and Rabatel, A and Gouttevin, I and Zekollari, H and Galiez, C}, title = {Nonlinear sensitivity of glacier mass balance to future climate change unveiled by deep learning.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {409}, pmid = {35058461}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Glaciers and ice caps are experiencing strong mass losses worldwide, challenging water availability, hydropower generation, and ecosystems. Here, we perform the first-ever glacier evolution projections based on deep learning by modelling the 21st century glacier evolution in the French Alps. By the end of the century, we predict a glacier volume loss between 75 and 88%. Deep learning captures a nonlinear response of glaciers to air temperature and precipitation, improving the representation of extreme mass balance rates compared to linear statistical and temperature-index models. Our results confirm an over-sensitivity of temperature-index models, often used by large-scale studies, to future warming. We argue that such models can be suitable for steep mountain glaciers. However, glacier projections under low-emission scenarios and the behaviour of flatter glaciers and ice caps are likely to be biased by mass balance models with linear sensitivities, introducing long-term biases in sea-level rise and water resources projections.}, }
@article {pmid35055922, year = {2022}, author = {Zhao, H and Xian, X and Zhao, Z and Zhang, G and Liu, W and Wan, F}, title = {Climate Change Increases the Expansion Risk of Helicoverpa zea in China According to Potential Geographical Distribution Estimation.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {35055922}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {caascx-2017-2022-IAS//the Science and Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ ; 2021YFB1003304//This research was funded by the National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; }, abstract = {Helicoverpa zea, a well-documented and endemic pest throughout most of the Americas, affecting more than 100 species of host plants. It is a quarantine pest according to the Asia and Pacific Plant Protection Commission (APPPC) and the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People's Republic of China. Based on 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea were predicted by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The contribution rate of bioclimatic variables and the jackknife method were integrated to assess the significant variables governing the PGDs. The response curves of bioclimatic variables were quantitatively determined to predict the PGDs of H. zea under climate change. The results showed that: (1) four out of the eight variables contributed the most to the model performance, namely, mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) PGDs of H. zea under the current climate covered 418.15 × 10[4] km[2], and were large in China; and (3) future climate change will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in both the 2030s and 2050s. The conversion of unsuitable to low suitability habitat and moderately to high suitability habitat increased by 8.43% and 2.35%, respectively. From the present day to the 2030s, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the centroid of the suitable habitats of H. zea showed a general tendency to move eastward; from 2030s to the 2050s, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, it moved southward, and it moved slightly northward under SSP2-4.5. According to bioclimatic conditions, H. zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to host plants and containers of H. zea and should exchange information to strengthen plant quarantine and pest monitoring, thus enhancing target management.}, }
@article {pmid35055902, year = {2022}, author = {Ding, W and Li, H and Wen, J}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae).}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {35055902}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {31770691//National Natural Sciences Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Among the impacts of ongoing and projected climate change are shifts in the distribution and severity of insect pests. Projecting those impacts is necessary to ensure effective pest management in the future. Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is an important polyphagous forest pest in China where causes huge economic and ecological losses in 20 provinces. Under historical climatic conditions, the suitable areas for A. cinerarius in China are mainly in the northern temperate zone (30-50° N) and the southern temperate zone (20-60° S). Using the CLIMEX model, the potential distribution of the pest in China and globally, both historically and under climate change, were estimated. Suitable habitats for A. cinerarius occur in parts of all continents. With climate change, its potential distribution extends northward in China and generally elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, although effects vary depending on latitude. In other areas of the world, some habitats become less suitable for the species. Based on the simulated growth index in CLIMEX, the onset of A. cinerarius would be earlier under climate change in some of its potential range, including Spain and Korea. Measures should anticipate the need for prevention and control of A. cinerarius in its potential extended range in China and globally.}, }
@article {pmid35055813, year = {2022}, author = {Soutar, C and Wand, APF}, title = {Understanding the Spectrum of Anxiety Responses to Climate Change: A Systematic Review of the Qualitative Literature.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {35055813}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Anxiety/epidemiology ; Anxiety Disorders ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Qualitative Research ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Knowledge about climate change may produce anxiety, but the concept of climate change anxiety is poorly understood. The primary aim of this study was to systematically review the qualitative literature regarding the scope of anxiety responses to climate change. The secondary aim was to investigate the sociodemographic and geographical factors which influence experiences of climate change anxiety.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic review of empirical qualitative studies was undertaken, examining the scope of climate change anxiety by searching five databases. Studies were critically appraised for quality. Content analysis was used to identify themes.<br><br>RESULTS: Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria. The content analysis was organised into two overarching themes. The scope of anxiety included worry about threats to livelihood, worry for future generations, worry about apocalyptic futures, anxiety at the lack of response to climate change, and competing worries. Themes pertaining to responses to climate change anxiety included symptoms of anxiety, feeling helpless and disempowered, and ways of managing climate change anxiety. Relatively few studies were identified, with limited geographical diversity amongst the populations studied.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The review furthers understanding of the concept of climate change anxiety and responses to it, highlighting the need for high-quality psychiatric research exploring its clinical significance and potential interventions.}, }
@article {pmid35055772, year = {2022}, author = {Zhong, B and Wu, S and Sun, G and Wu, N}, title = {Farmers' Strategies to Climate Change and Urbanization: Potential of Ecosystem-Based Adaptation in Rural Chengdu, Southwest China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {35055772}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Rural Population ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) is emerging as a cost-effective approach for helping people adapt to climate and non-climate changes. Nowadays, climate change and urbanization have affected agricultural systems, but it is not clear how rural communities have responded or adapted to those changes. Here, we chose two typical villages in the Chengdu Plain, southwest China, through sociological surveys on 90 local farmers with a semi-structured questionnaire, participatory observation, geospatial analysis of land use and land cover, and a literature review, to explore the local people's perception of changes or disturbances and their adaptation strategies from the perspective of EbA. The results showed that climate change and urbanization had impacted agricultural systems dramatically in the last 40 years. In two case-study sites, climate change and urbanization were perceived by most local farmers as the main drivers impacting on agricultural production, but various resource-use models containing abundant traditional knowledge or practices as well as modern tools, such as information communication technology (ICT), were applied to adapt to these changes. Moreover, culture service through the adaptive decoration of rural landscapes is becoming a new perspective for implementing an EbA strategy. Finally, our findings highlighted the potential value of an EbA strategy for sustaining urban-rural integrated development and enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems.}, }
@article {pmid35055715, year = {2022}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Ternova, L and Parasnis, SA and Kovaleva, M and Nagy, GJ}, title = {Climate Change and Zoonoses: A Review of Concepts, Definitions, and Bibliometrics.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {35055715}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; Bibliometrics ; *COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Mosquito Vectors ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Zoonoses/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change can have a complex impact that also influences human and animal health. For example, climate change alters the conditions for pathogens and vectors of zoonotic diseases. Signs of this are the increasing spread of the West Nile and Usutu viruses and the establishment of new vector species, such as specific mosquito and tick species, in Europe and other parts of the world. With these changes come new challenges for maintaining human and animal health. This paper reports on an analysis of the literature focused on a bibliometric analysis of the Scopus database and VOSviewer software for creating visualization maps which identifies the zoonotic health risks for humans and animals caused by climate change. The sources retained for the analysis totaled 428 and different thresholds (N) were established for each item varying from N 5 to 10. The main findings are as follows: First, published documents increased in 2009-2015 peaking in 2020. Second, the primary sources have changed since 2018, partly attributable to the increase in human health concerns due to human-to-human transmission. Third, the USA, the UK, Canada, Australia, Italy, and Germany perform most zoonosis research. For instance, sixty documents and only 17 countries analyzed for co-authorship analysis met the threshold led by the USA; the top four author keywords were "climate change", "zoonosis", "epidemiology", and "one health;" the USA, the UK, Germany, and Spain led the link strength (inter-collaboration); the author keywords showed that 37 out of the 1023 keywords met the threshold, and the authors' keyword's largest node of the bibliometric map contains the following: infectious diseases, emerging diseases, disease ecology, one health, surveillance, transmission, and wildlife. Finally, zoonotic diseases, which were documented in the literature in the past, have evolved, especially during the years 2010-2015, as evidenced by the sharp augmentation of publications addressing ad-hoc events and peaking in 2020 with the COVID-19 outbreak.}, }
@article {pmid35053108, year = {2022}, author = {Yin, Y and He, Q and Pan, X and Liu, Q and Wu, Y and Li, X}, title = {Predicting Current Potential Distribution and the Range Dynamics of Pomacea canaliculata in China under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {35053108}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2020YFC1200100//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 2019A1515010583//Guangdong Natural Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Pomacea canaliculata is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, which has significant effects and harm to native species, ecological environment, human health, and social economy. Climate change is one of the major causes of species range shifts. With recent climate change, the distribution of P. canaliculata has shifted northward. Understanding the potential distribution under current and future climate conditions will aid in the management of the risk of its invasion and spread. Here, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of P. canaliculata in China, and the jackknife test was used to assess the importance of environmental variables for modeling. Our study found that precipitation of the warmest quarter and maximum temperature in the coldest months played important roles in the distribution of P. canaliculata. With global warming, there will be a trend of expansion and northward movement in the future. This study could provide recommendations for the management and prevention of snail invasion and expansion.}, }
@article {pmid35053104, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, L and Ma, D and Li, C and Zhou, R and Wang, J and Liu, Q}, title = {Projecting the Potential Distribution Areas of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Driven by Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {35053104}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Ixodes scapularis is a vector of tick-borne diseases. Climate change is frequently invoked as an important cause of geographic expansions of tick-borne diseases. Environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation have an important impact on the geographical distribution of disease vectors. We used the maximum entropy model to project the potential geographic distribution and future trends of I. scapularis. The main climatic variables affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas were screened by the jackknife method. Arc Map 10.5 was used to visualize the projection results to better present the distribution of potential suitable areas. Under climate change scenarios, the potential suitable area of I. scapularis is dynamically changing. The largest suitable area of I. scapularis is under SSP3-7.0 from 2081 to 2100, while the smallest is under SSP5-8.5 from 2081 to 2100, even smaller than the current suitable area. Precipitation in May and September are the main contributing factors affecting the potential suitable areas of I. scapularis. With the opportunity to spread to more potential suitable areas, it is critical to strengthen surveillance to prevent the possible invasion of I. scapularis.}, }
@article {pmid35051620, year = {2022}, author = {Tonnang, HE and Sokame, BM and Abdel-Rahman, EM and Dubois, T}, title = {Measuring and modelling crop yield losses due to invasive insect pests under climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {50}, number = {}, pages = {100873}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2022.100873}, pmid = {35051620}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Insecta ; }, abstract = {Climate change and agriculture are strongly correlated, and the fast pace of climate change will have impacts on agroecosystems and crop productivity. This review summarizes potential impacts of rising temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on insect pest-crop interactions and provides two-way approaches for integrating these impacts into crop models for sustainable pest management strategies designing. Rising temperatures and CO2 levels affect insect physiology, accelerate their metabolism and increase their consumption, ultimately increasing population densities, which result in greater crop injury and damage, and yield loss. Whereas these direct effects are empirically demonstrated for temperature rises, they are less straightforward for CO2 increases. Furthermore, indirect effects of rising temperatures and CO2 levels remain largely unexploited and therefore unknown. Coupling insect pests and crops using a two-way feedback system model, whereby pest variables drive crop variables and vice versa, will improve analysis and forecasting of yield losses to better guide preparedness and intervention strategies.}, }
@article {pmid35050119, year = {2022}, author = {Mutinda, ES and Mkala, EM and Dong, X and Yang, JX and Waswa, EN and Nanjala, C and Odago, WO and Hu, GW and Wang, QF}, title = {Comparative Genomics, Phylogenetics, Biogeography, and Effects of Climate Change on Toddalia asiatica (L.) Lam. (Rutaceae) from Africa and Asia.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {35050119}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {151853KYSB20190027//International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 31970211//The National Natural Sciences Foundation of China/ ; SAJC202101//The Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, CAS/ ; }, abstract = {In the present study, two samples of Toddalia asiatica species, both collected from Kenya, were sequenced and comparison of their genome structures carried out with T. asiatica species from China, available in the NCBI database. The genome size of both species from Africa was 158, 508 base pairs, which was slightly larger, compared to the reference genome of T. asiatica from Asia (158, 434 bp). The number of genes was 113 for both species from Africa, consisting of 79 protein-coding genes, 30 transfer RNA (tRNA) genes, and 4 ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes. Toddalia asiatica from Asia had 115 genes with 81 protein-coding genes, 30 transfer RNA (tRNA) genes, and 4 ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes. Both species compared displayed high similarity in gene arrangement. The gene number, orientation, and order were highly conserved. The IR/SC boundary structures were the same in all chloroplast genomes. A comparison of pairwise sequences indicated that the three regions (trnH-psbA, rpoB, and ycf1) were more divergent and can be useful in developing effective genetic markers. Phylogenetic analyses of the complete cp genomes and 79 protein-coding genes indicated that the Toddalia species collected from Africa were sister to T. asiatica collected from Asia. Both species formed a sister clade to the Southwest Pacific and East Asian species of Zanthoxylum. These results supported the previous studies of merging the genus Toddalia with Zanthoxylum and taxonomic change of Toddalia asiatica to Zanthoxylum asiaticum, which should also apply for the African species of Toddalia. Biogeographic results demonstrated that the two samples of Toddalia species from Africa diverged from T. asiatica from Asia (3.422 Mya, 95% HPD). These results supported an Asian origin of Toddalia species and later dispersal to Africa and Madagascar. The maxent model analysis showed that Asia would have an expansion of favorable areas for Toddalia species in the future. In Africa, there will be contraction and expansion of the favorable areas for the species. The availability of these cp genomes will provide valuable genetic resources for further population genetics and biogeographic studies of these species. However, more T. asiatica species collected from a wide geographical range are required.}, }
@article {pmid35048379, year = {2022}, author = {Perry, WB}, title = {The devastating duo: bycatch and climate change hit the Atlantic wolffish Anarhichas lupus.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {100}, number = {1}, pages = {3}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.14991}, pmid = {35048379}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Perciformes ; }, }
@article {pmid35047240, year = {2022}, author = {Pant, G and Maraseni, T and Apan, A and Allen, BL}, title = {Identifying and prioritising climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) conservation in Nepal.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {e12795}, pmid = {35047240}, issn = {2167-8359}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Climate Change ; Nepal ; Temperature ; Perissodactyla ; }, abstract = {Climate change has started impacting species, ecosystems, genetic diversity within species, and ecological interactions and is thus a serious threat to conserving biodiversity globally. In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, biodiversity may continue to decline, and many species will possibly become extinct. Given that global temperature continues to increase, climate change adaptation has emerged as an overarching framework for conservation planning. We identified both ongoing and probable climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros conservation in Nepal through a combination of literature review, key informant surveys (n = 53), focus group discussions (n = 37) and expert consultation (n = 9), and prioritised the identified adaptation actions through stakeholder consultation (n = 17). The majority of key informants (>80%) reported that climate change has been impacting rhinoceros, and more than 65% of them believe that rhinoceros habitat suitability in Nepal has been shifting westwards. Despite these perceived risks, climate change impacts have not been incorporated well into formal conservation planning for rhinoceros. Out of 20 identified adaptation actions under nine adaptation strategies, identifying and protecting climate refugia, restoring the existing habitats through wetland and grassland management, creating artificial highlands in floodplains to provide rhinoceros with refuge during severe floods, and translocating them to other suitable habitats received higher priority. These adaptation actions may contribute to reducing the vulnerability of rhinoceros to the likely impacts of climate change. This study is the first of its kind in Nepal and is expected to provide a guideline to align ongoing conservation measures into climate change adaptation planning for rhinoceros. Further, we emphasise the need to integrating likely climate change impacts while planning for rhinoceros conservation and initiating experimental research and monitoring programs to better inform adaptation planning in the future.}, }
@article {pmid35047103, year = {2022}, author = {Nagai, K}, title = {Climate change and demand of emergency care in Japan.}, journal = {Journal of rural medicine : JRM}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {57-58}, pmid = {35047103}, issn = {1880-487X}, abstract = {Both the frequency and severity of heat stress-related health problems have been increasing globally, probably due to global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a landmark climate report, the 6th Assessment Report, which shocked the world. It emphasized that anthropogenic activities, such as the combustion of fossil fuels, oil, gas, and coal, were responsible for climate change. The combination of population aging, and increased temperatures has meant that the number of people requiring emergency transport for heatstroke has been increasing in Japan from 2008 to 2020. The increase in ambient temperatures and the number of patients requiring emergency transport were strongly correlated (Spearman correlation coefficient: r=0.669 and P=0.008). Like many human activities, medical care is resource intensive and contributes significantly to climate change through the consumption of energy and water, as well as the emission of greenhouse gases. As healthcare professionals, we need to be cognizant of how our eco-friendly activities both on and off the job can contribute to saving both the patients and us.}, }
@article {pmid35045121, year = {2022}, author = {Gull E Fareen, A and Mahmood, T and Bodlah, I and Rashid, A and Khalid, A and Mahmood, S}, title = {Modeling potential distribution of newly recorded ant, Brachyponera nigrita using Maxent under climate change in Pothwar region, Pakistan.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {e0262451}, pmid = {35045121}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Ants/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Demography/*trends ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Biomarkers/*physiology ; Epidemiological Models ; Geography ; Pakistan ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been discussed as to exert shifts in geographical range of plants, animals or insect species by increasing, reducing or shifting its appropriate climatic habitat. Globally, Pakistan has been ranked at 5th position on the list of countries most vulnerable to climate change in 2020. Climate change has resulted in the losses of biodiversity and alteration in ecosystem as a result of depletion of natural habitats of species in Pakistan as well as in the world. Ants have been regarded as indicators of environmental change and ecosystem processes. Brachyponera nigrita (Emery, 1895) was reported for the first time from Pakistan (Pothwar region). Objective of our studies was to model geographic distribution of newly recorded ant species, B. nigrita based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP) (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050s using maximum entropy model (Maxent) in Pakistan. In modeling procedure, 21occurrence records and 8 variables namely Bio4 (Temperature seasonality), Bio8 (Mean temperature of wettest quarter), Bio10 (Mean temperature of warmest quarter), Bio12 (Annual precipitation), Bio13 (Precipitation of wettest month), Bio15 (Precipitation seasonality), Bio17 (Precipitation of driest quarter) and Bio18 (Precipitation of warmest quarter) were used to determine the current and future distributions. Performance of the model was evaluated using AUC (area under curves) values, partial ROC, omission rates (E = 5%) and AICc (Model complexity).The results showed the average AUC value of the model was 0.930, which indicated that the accuracy of the model was excellent. The jackknife test also showed that Bio4, Bio18, Bio17 and Bio15 contributed 98% for the prediction of potential distribution of the species as compared to all other variables. Maxent results indicated that distribution area of B. nigrita under future predicted bioclimatics 2050 (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) would be increased in various localities of Pakistan as compared to its current distribution. In Pothwar region, moderately suitable and highly suitable areas of this species would increase by 505.932321km2and 572.118421km2as compared to current distribution under 2050 (RCP 4.5), while under 2050 (RCP 8.5), there would be an increase of 6427.2576km2and 3765.140493km2 respectively in moderately suitable and highly suitable areas of B. nigrita. This species was associated with termites, collembolans and larval stages of different insects. White eggs, creamy white pupae and many workers of this species were observed in a variety of habitats. Unknown nesting ecology, species identification characters supported with micrographs has been given which will help researchers for further ecological studies.}, }
@article {pmid35045090, year = {2022}, author = {Spisak, BR and State, B and van de Leemput, I and Scheffer, M and Liu, Y}, title = {Large-scale decrease in the social salience of climate change during the COVID-19 pandemic.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {e0256082}, pmid = {35045090}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {COVID-19/*epidemiology/virology ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2/isolation &amp; purification ; Seasons ; *Social Media ; United States/epidemiology ; Wildfires ; }, abstract = {There are concerns that climate change attention is waning as competing global threats intensify. To investigate this possibility, we analyzed all link shares and reshares on Meta's Facebook platform (e.g., shares and reshares of news articles) in the United States from August 2019 to December 2020 (containing billions of aggregated and de-identified shares and reshares). We then identified all link shares and reshares on "climate change" and "global warming" from this repository to develop a social media salience index-the Climate SMSI score-and found an 80% decrease in climate change content sharing and resharing as COVID-19 spread during the spring of 2020. Climate change salience then briefly rebounded in the autumn of 2020 during a period of record-setting wildfires and droughts in the United States before returning to low content sharing and resharing levels. This fluctuating pattern suggests new climate communication strategies-focused on "systemic sustainability"-are necessary in an age of competing global crises.}, }
@article {pmid35043907, year = {2022}, author = {Alpino, TMA and Mazoto, ML and Barros, DC and Freitas, CM}, title = {The impacts of climate change on Food and Nutritional Security: a literature review.}, journal = {Ciencia &amp; saude coletiva}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {273-286}, doi = {10.1590/1413-81232022271.05972020}, pmid = {35043907}, issn = {1678-4561}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Food ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Nutritive Value ; Poverty ; }, abstract = {The interface between Climate Changes and Food and Nutrition Security (FNS) has been standing out in the sustainable development agenda since the early 1990's. Since then, studies show that climate changes have negative effects on the FNS, aggravated by poverty and social inequality. The purpose of this paper is to perform a review evidencing the relationships between climate changes and FNS. The research was carried out in PubMed using the descriptors "climate change and food security" on the headline, selecting only papers in Portuguese, Spanish, and English languages, and with a direct relation to the themes. The main impacts of climate changes on the FNS were related to the access, production, nutritional quality, and volatility of food prices. The studies also indicated mitigation/adaptation strategies to the effects of climate changes on the FNS, as well as a geographic panorama of the publications with fields of study in Africa and Asia, continents marked by social inequality and poverty. Climate changes affect the dimensions of FNS, especially in poorer populations in situation of social inequality. The relevance of the themes raises concern on the urgency of higher investments in public policies, studies, and research on the subject around the world.}, }
@article {pmid35041962, year = {2022}, author = {Gomez-Gomez, JD and Pulido-Velazquez, D and Collados-Lara, AJ and Fernandez-Chacon, F}, title = {The impact of climate change scenarios on droughts and their propagation in an arid Mediterranean basin. A useful approach for planning adaptation strategies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {820}, number = {}, pages = {153128}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153128}, pmid = {35041962}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Hydrology ; Meteorology ; }, abstract = {Areas where there is a scarcity of water frequently experience significant drought periods, which may become exacerbated in the future due to climate change. In this paper we propose a novel and integrated method for a semi-distributed analysis of the impact on potential future meteorological, hydrological, agronomical and operational droughts within a basin. We analyse the propagation and correlation of the different types of droughts, and then this analysis can be used to plan sustainable adaptation strategies. The proposed method is based on sequential applications of different statistical techniques and mathematical models. We have applied several statistical downscaling techniques to generate consistent local future climate scenarios considering both basic and drought statistics. This allows us to analyse the sensitivity of the results to the applied technique and the spatial distribution. A chain of models has been used to propagate climate scenarios to analyse the hydrological, agricultural, and operational impact. We have applied a clustering analysis to historical data to identify homogeneous hydro-climate areas used to analyse the spatial distribution of the impact. The approach has been applied in the Segura basin (in south-eastern Spain). The simulations of the impact in the 3 generated ensemble scenarios on the whole Segura Basin system for the horizon 2071-2100 under the RCP8.5 emission scenario show a significant mean reduction (40.9-59.1%) of the available resources, an increase in pumping rates in aquifers (36.4-42.7%) and lower guarantees (96.3% in the historical period and 75.0-77.6% in the future scenarios) for demand supply. The spatial distribution of the impact is heterogeneous, with the hydro-climate areas near to the coast for agricultural and operational droughts being more affected. An analysis of correlation between the meteorological and operational droughts shows the maximum correlation for a time delay of around 4 months. This information could help to identify when measures to reduce the operational impact should start to be applied when a meteorological drought starts.}, }
@article {pmid35041710, year = {2022}, author = {Igawa, TK and Toledo, PM and Anjos, LJS}, title = {Climate change could reduce and spatially reconfigure cocoa cultivation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {e0262729}, pmid = {35041710}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Brazil ; Cacao/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Ecosystem ; *Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa's geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the "biomod2" library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring.}, }
@article {pmid35040241, year = {2022}, author = {Campbell, TG and Al-Qureshi, S}, title = {Ophthalmologists and climate change.}, journal = {Clinical &amp; experimental ophthalmology}, volume = {50}, number = {3}, pages = {274-279}, doi = {10.1111/ceo.14041}, pmid = {35040241}, issn = {1442-9071}, support = {//Hector Maclean Scholarship/ ; //Bayer/ ; }, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Methane ; *Ophthalmologists ; }, abstract = {It is indisputable that human activities have caused climate change and that, if left unchecked, these activities will lead to worsening of weather extremes including fire, drought, and flood with all their attendant human suffering. Reducing future climate change requires limiting cumulative emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases including methane. We have written this evidence-based perspective to highlight interventions with the largest effect to help the average ophthalmologist make the changes with the highest impact in their day-to-day lives.}, }
@article {pmid35039568, year = {2022}, author = {Mohammed, IN and Bolten, JD and Souter, NJ and Shaad, K and Vollmer, D}, title = {Diagnosing challenges and setting priorities for sustainable water resource management under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {796}, pmid = {35039568}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {Space Act Agreement number 27304/NASA/NASA/United States ; Space Act Agreement number 27304/NASA/NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {Managing transboundary river basins requires balancing tradeoffs of sustainable water use and coping with climate uncertainty. We demonstrate an integrated approach to exploring these issues through the lens of a social-ecological system, combining remote and in-situ earth observations, hydrologic and climate models, and social surveys. Specifically, we examine how climate change and dam development could impact the Se Kong, Se San and Sre Pok rivers in the Mekong region. We find that climate change will lead to increased precipitation, necessitating a shift in dam operations, from maintaining low flows to reducing flood hazards. We also find that existing water governance systems in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia are ill-prepared to address the problem. We conclude that the solution space for addressing these complex issues will be highly constrained unless major deficiencies in transboundary water governance, strategic planning, financial capacity, information sharing, and law enforcement are remedied in the next decades.}, }
@article {pmid35038090, year = {2022}, author = {Abbas, S}, title = {Global warming and export competitiveness of agriculture sector: evidence from heterogeneous econometric analysis of Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {23}, pages = {34325-34337}, pmid = {35038090}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Economic Development ; *Global Warming ; Pakistan ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {The increase in average annual temperature due to greenhouse gases emission is posing threat to the agriculture sector across the globe. Pakistan is labor abundant agrarian country that heavily depends on the agriculture sector for food, employment, and raw material for industries. This study is a preliminary investigation that explores the effect of increasing average annual temperature on the competitiveness of 24 major agricultural exports from 2003 to 2020. The revealed export advantage (RXA) is used to explore the competitive performance of selected agricultural exports, which is then normalized to examine the effect of increasing average annual temperature along with official exchange rate, urbanization, and globalization. The panel fixed-effect model with heteroscedasticity consistent robust standard error recommended by White (Econometrica 48(4):817-838, 1980) is used to explore model estimates, whereas the robustness check has been performed by using heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity consistent robust standard error model of Driscoll and Kaary (Rev Econ Stat 80(4):549-559, 1998). The estimated result reveals that the increasing average annual temperature has a negative but insignificant impact on the export competitiveness of selected agricultural exports. While, urbanization and exchange rate deprecation show a significant negative effect of higher intensity, respectively. Globalization, however, reveals a significant positive impact on the competitiveness of selected agricultural exports. This study, therefore, urges for the development of the agriculture sector by adopting SDGs proposed by the United Nations for sustainable economic growth and development.}, }
@article {pmid35036279, year = {2022}, author = {Welsch, H}, title = {What shapes cognitions of climate change in Europe? Ideology, morality, and the role of educational attainment.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {386-395}, pmid = {35036279}, issn = {2190-6483}, abstract = {Cognitions about climate change are of critical importance for climate change mitigation as they influence climate-relevant behaviors and the support of climate policy. Using about 30,000 observations from a large-scale representative survey from 23 European countries, this study provides two major findings. First, important policy-relevant climate change cognitions do not only differ by individuals' ideological identity (left versus right) but-independently-by their moral identity, that is, the pattern of endorsement of the moral foundations: Care, Fairness, Liberty, Loyalty, Authority, and Purity/Sanctity. In particular, controlling for ideological position, the cognitions that the world climate is changing, that climate change is human-made, and that climate change impacts are bad are significantly negatively related to stronger endorsement of the Authority and Sanctity foundations while being positively related to stronger endorsement of the Loyalty and Fairness foundations. Second, not only the ideology-related cognitive divide but the morality-related divide is larger in individuals with tertiary education, consistent with the idea that individuals with greater science literacy and numeracy use these skills to adjust their cognitions to their group identity. The finding that better education may amplify rather than attenuate the ideology and morality dependence of decision-relevant climate change cognitions sheds doubt on the proposition that better education unambiguously furthers the prospects for climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid35035604, year = {2022}, author = {Cifuentes-Faura, J}, title = {European Union policies and their role in combating climate change over the years.}, journal = {Air quality, atmosphere, &amp; health}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {1333-1340}, pmid = {35035604}, issn = {1873-9318}, abstract = {The worrying environmental situation and increased public awareness in recent years have led many countries to take measures to reduce negative impacts on the environment. The European Union (EU) has been one of the most active in environmental protection with the formulation of policies aimed at preserving the health and well-being of citizens and protecting natural resources. One of the objectives of environmental policies is to make the economy of its member states more environmentally friendly, although this requires finding solutions to major challenges such as climate change, the scarcity of natural resources, the emission of polluting gases, and unsustainable consumption and production. This article reviews the main policies that have been implemented in the EU to reduce environmental problems and the scope of climate change conferences. It offers solutions to promote sustainability that could be adopted by companies, individuals, and governmental institutions to jointly contribute to achieving a more sustainable world, where problems such as climate change or the emission of polluting gases are minimized. The aim is to follow the principles of the Circular Economy and the European Green Deal.}, }
@article {pmid35035097, year = {2022}, author = {Rowland, J and Estevens, J and Krzewińska, A and Warwas, I and Delicado, A}, title = {Trust and Mistrust in Sources of Scientific Information on Climate Change and Vaccines: Insights from Portugal and Poland.}, journal = {Science &amp; education}, volume = {31}, number = {5}, pages = {1399-1424}, pmid = {35035097}, issn = {0926-7220}, abstract = {Public trust in science and expertise remains a contentious issue. When public trust is analysed, it often simplifies a complex process of information retrieval and interpretation. Questionnaire surveys help us make sense of differences among actors and countries, but they fail to provide a comprehensive analysis of the reasons that lead citizens to trust a specific actor to differing degrees. Hence, we opted for using a qualitative grounded approach to understand how citizens make sense of their trust in several actors. This article draws from the results of public consultations with citizens in Portugal and Poland about two specific science-related topics-climate change and vaccines-focusing on citizens' perceptions of trust in several sources of scientific information. The results show that citizens' trust varies depending on the source of scientific information, and it is affected by the topic's visibility and different national levels of institutional trust. It also concludes that citizens use different criteria to evaluate trustworthiness and that this process leads to different ways of expressing trust/mistrust: unquestioned confidence, justified trust, reflexive trust, and active distrust. Such knowledge leads to a more in depth understanding of how trust in science is constructed, which can help science communicators and educators choose sources and materials.}, }
@article {pmid35034308, year = {2022}, author = {Baig, IA and Chandio, AA and Ozturk, I and Kumar, P and Khan, ZA and Salam, MA}, title = {Assessing the long- and short-run asymmetrical effects of climate change on rice production: empirical evidence from India.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {23}, pages = {34209-34230}, pmid = {35034308}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Economic Development ; India ; *Oryza ; }, abstract = {In recent years, environmental change has arisen as a ubiquitous problem and gained environmentalist's attention across the globe due to its long-term harmful effects on agricultural production, food supply, water supply, and livelihoods of rural households. The present study aims to explore the asymmetrical dynamic relationship between climate change and rice production with other explanatory variables. Based on the time series data of India, covering the period 1991-2018, the current study applied the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and Granger causality approach. The results of the NARDL reveal that mean temperature negatively affects rice production in the long run while positively affecting it in the short run. Furthermore, positive shocks in rainfall and carbon emission have negative and significant impacts on rice production in the long and short run. In comparison, negative rainfall shocks significantly affect rice production in the long and short run. Wald test confirms the asymmetrical relationship between climate change and rice production. The Granger causality test shows feedback effect among mean temperature, decreasing rainfall, increasing carbon emission, and rice production. While no causal relationship between increasing temperature and decreasing carbon emission. Based on the empirical investigations, some critical policy implications emerged. Toward sustainable rice production in India, there is a need to improve irrigation infrastructure through increasing public investment and to develop climate-resilient seeds varieties to cope with climate change. Along with, at the district level government should provide proper training to farmers regarding the usage of pesticides, the proper amount of fertilizers, and irrigation systems.}, }
@article {pmid35033315, year = {2022}, author = {Arepally, A and Omary, RA and Vandenbergh, MP}, title = {Scanning the Planet: Radiology's Grand Opportunity to Address Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of the American College of Radiology : JACR}, volume = {19}, number = {1 Pt B}, pages = {217-219}, doi = {10.1016/j.jacr.2021.08.031}, pmid = {35033315}, issn = {1558-349X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Planets ; *Radiology ; Radionuclide Imaging ; }, }
@article {pmid35032271, year = {2022}, author = {Khan, AA and Khan, SU and Ali, MAS and Safi, A and Gao, Y and Luo, J}, title = {Identifying impact of international trade and renewable energy consumption on environmental quality improvement and their role in global warming.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {23}, pages = {33935-33944}, pmid = {35032271}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide ; Commerce ; *Economic Development ; *Global Warming ; Internationality ; Quality Improvement ; Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {There is a lack of proper research that highlights the impact of institutional quality (IQ) and renewable energy consumption (REC) on the carbon emission (CE). The significance of IQ and REC in the achievement of zero CE is highlighted in this research. The current research reports the effects of these important factors on the consumption-based carbon emissions in the G-7 countries from 1995 to 2018. Based on the outcome of the cointegration test, the long-run connection is recognized between IQ, REC, GDP, exports, imports, and consumption-based CE. The findings also validated that there exist significant decrease and increase in the CE in both the short and long run; for instance, IQ, REC, and exports decrease the CE, while imports and GDP increase the CE. The estimates of causality test showed that policies aimed at improving IQ, REC, GDP, exports, and imports have a significant impact on the CE. Consequently, based on these results, policymakers in the G-7 must prioritize IQ and REC to enhance environmental quality and attain carbon neutrality.}, }
@article {pmid35032203, year = {2022}, author = {Connare, BM and Islam, K}, title = {Failure to advance migratory phenology in response to climate change may pose a significant threat to a declining Nearctic-Neotropical songbird.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {803-815}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-022-02239-9}, pmid = {35032203}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {240156//Indiana Department of Natural Resources/ ; }, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Climate Change ; *Passeriformes ; Reproduction/physiology ; Seasons ; *Songbirds ; }, abstract = {Populations of long-distance migrants that breed in seasonal habitats can be significantly impacted by climate change. We examined the migratory and breeding phenologies of the cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea), a declining long-distance Nearctic-Neotropical migrant that breeds in deciduous forests of Indiana. Our primary objectives were to determine temporal trends in cerulean warbler migratory timing, and to identify climate variables that explain variation in this species' migratory and breeding phenologies. We reviewed trends in cerulean warbler first arrival to Indiana from 1982 to 2019, and compared them to several explanatory climate variables: spring temperature, growing degree days (GDD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). We also compared the timing of cerulean warbler first lay dates from 2012 to 2019 with the aforementioned climate variables and annual spring precipitation. Cerulean warblers exhibited a minimal advance in first arrival timing (≤4 days in 38 years). Arrival timing was best predicted by GDD and a null model, but trends in GDD indicate that spring warming in Indiana has advanced by a greater margin, approximately 14 days. Climate variables did not predict first lay timing better than a null model. Springtime in Indiana is occurring earlier, but cerulean warblers are advancing their migratory timing to a much smaller degree. This failure to adapt may have a detrimental effect on warbler populations if it results in an asynchronization of important biological timings between them and their prey. Further studies of cerulean warbler breeding and prey phenologies are necessary to determine how climate change is impacting this species' reproductive success.}, }
@article {pmid35031995, year = {2022}, author = {Zhong, F and Cheng, W and Guo, A and Song, X and Cheng, Q and Ullah, A and Song, Y}, title = {Are Chinese social scientists concerned about climate change? A bibliometric analysis and literature review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {9}, pages = {12911-12932}, pmid = {35031995}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Bibliometrics ; China ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; Publications ; }, abstract = {China has been the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide since 2006. To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, social scientists must become involved in China's deep decarbonization process. However, Chinese social scientists have given little attention to climate change in their bibliometric research. Based on the Chinese Social Sciences Citation Index journal catalog of the four essential social sciences, namely, management, economics, politics, and sociology, we used the China National Knowledge Infrastructure database to quantify the extent to which Chinese social scientists are concerned about climate change. The results showed that from 1978 to 2020, 1179 articles on climate change were published in management, economics, politics, and sociology journals, which represented only 26.8% of the 4397 articles published on pollution in the same journals. Politics journals published the most articles (38.76%), while sociology journals published the fewest (2.37%). Thus, Chinese social scientists rarely considered climate change, mainly because this topic remains controversial in some fields and because of the influence of international politics in addition to the promotion and incentive mechanisms for researchers. We analyzed the keywords and evolution of climate change research in the four social sciences and our results show that social scientists should give greater emphasis to climate change in their research.}, }
@article {pmid35031574, year = {2022}, author = {Arasaradnam, RP and Hillman, T}, title = {Climate change and health research - lessons from COP26.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {172-173}, doi = {10.7861/clinmed.2021-0780}, pmid = {35031574}, issn = {1473-4893}, mesh = {*Biomedical Research ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35031362, year = {2022}, author = {Pang, X and Gu, Y and Launiainen, S and Guan, M}, title = {Urban hydrological responses to climate change and urbanization in cold climates.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {817}, number = {}, pages = {153066}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153066}, pmid = {35031362}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cold Climate ; Hydrology ; Seasons ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {This study explores hydrological response of urban catchment in Southern Finland to climate change and urbanization. Process-based urban hydrological modelling and statistical analysis are applied to various urbanization and climate scenarios. Future changes in precipitation and temperature under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) clearly influence urban streamflow all year-round. We found snowpack shrinks during 2061 to 2090, snowmelt becomes earlier and the amount of melted runoff is reduced under both climate scenarios. The most significant runoff increase occurs in winter with the growth rates of 79% and 127%, respectively. It is also found that the dominant portion of urban streamflow shifts from summer to autumn in the future under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results indicate that urbanization has direct impact on hydrological response due to the change of imperviousness, but climate change will have more significant impact on seasonal distribution of urban streamflow. Additionally, urbanization impacts shrink monthly streamflow differences along with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35030394, year = {2022}, author = {Ahmed Hanifi, SMM and Menon, N and Quisumbing, A}, title = {The impact of climate change on children's nutritional status in coastal Bangladesh.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {294}, number = {}, pages = {114704}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.114704}, pmid = {35030394}, issn = {1873-5347}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; *Nutritional Status ; Rural Population ; Weather ; }, abstract = {This paper studies the impact of climate change on the nutritional status of very young children between the ages of 0-3 years by using weather data from the last half century merged with rich information on child, mother, and household characteristics in rural coastal Bangladesh. We evaluate the health consequences of rising temperature and relative humidity and varying rainfall jointly employing alternate functional forms. Leveraging models that control for annual trends and location-specific seasonality, and that allow the impacts of temperature to vary non-parametrically while rainfall and humidity have flexible non-linear forms, we find that temperatures that exceed 25 °C (the "comfortable" benchmark) in the month of birth exert negative effects on children's nutritional status as measured by mid upper arm circumference. Humidity has a positive impact which persists when child, mother and household controls are included. We find that exposure to changing climate in utero also matters. Explanations for these results include consequences of weather fluctuations on the extent of pasture, cropland, and rainfed lands planted with rice and other crops, and on mother's age at first marriage. Our results underline that climate change has real consequences for the health of very young populations in vulnerable areas.}, }
@article {pmid35028848, year = {2022}, author = {Qin, X and Xia, W and Hu, X and Shao, Z}, title = {Dynamic variations of cyanobacterial blooms and their response to urban development and climate change in Lake Chaohu based on Landsat observations.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {22}, pages = {33152-33166}, pmid = {35028848}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {72071064//national natural science foundation of china/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Cyanobacteria ; Environmental Monitoring ; Lakes/microbiology ; Urban Renewal ; }, abstract = {Recurring cyanobacterial blooms have seriously hindered the sustainable development of cities. In this study, the variation trend of cyanobacterial blooms was analyzed by taking Lake Chaohu in China as the study area, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat observations combined with the development index of surrounding cities from 2009 to 2019 was used to quantitatively analyze the response of cyanobacterial blooms to urban development and climate change. The results showed that the NDVI of the Northwest Lake region was significantly higher than that of other regions. Summer and autumn were the main seasons for the outbreak of cyanobacterial blooms. The NDVI of Lake Chaohu and Baohe Lake region showed a significant correlation with the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of Hefei city (HF), the districts and counties around the lake (DCL), Baohe District (BH), and the population (P). As the economic regions gradually focused on BH rather than on HF and DCL, there was an increasing trend correlation between the NDVI of Baohe Lake region and the GDP growth rate. However, the elimination of GDP in BH did not affect the consistency relationship between the economic growth of other regions and the NDVI of Lake Chaohu on a large scale. In addition, the results of relative importance analysis indicated that the GDP growth rate of BH and the area of Hefei except DCL (HF-DCL) accounted for important contribution to the [Formula: see text] of the regression. This study has momentous reference value for understanding the coupling relationship between urban development and lake environment.}, }
@article {pmid35028465, year = {2022}, author = {Balima, LH and Nacoulma, BMI and Da, SS and Ouédraogo, A and Soro, D and Thiombiano, A}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of African oak tree (Afzelia africana Sm.) in Burkina Faso, West Africa.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {e08688}, pmid = {35028465}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Afzelia africana Sm - a multipurpose leguminous tree species - is threatened in West Africa - a climate change hotspot region. Yet, although the impacts of land use on this species dynamics have been widely reported, there is a little literature on the impacts of climate change on its spatial distribution. This study aimed to predict the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of A. africana in Burkina Faso. A total of 4,066 records of A. africana was compiled from personal fieldwork and vegetation database. Current and future bioclimatic variables were obtained from WorldClim website. For future climatic projections, six global climate models (GCMs) were selected under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 &amp; RCP 8.5) and two horizons (2050 &amp; 2070). Presence data and bioclimatic variables were processed in ArcGIS software and used in the algorithm MaxEnt (maximum of entropy) to predict the species distribution. Findings showed that maximum temperature of warmest month and mean temperature of coldest quarter mostly affect the habitat suitability of A. africana. About 25.54% of Burkina Faso land surface was currently suitable for A. africana conservation. Under future climatic projections, all the climate models predict climate-driven habitat loss of the species with a southward range shift. Across the two emission scenarios, the spatial extent of suitable habitats was predicted to decline from 9.43 to 23.99% and from 12.29 to 25% by the horizons 2050 and 2070, respectively. Habitat loss and range shifts predicted in this study underline the high vulnerability of A. africana to future climate change. Reforestation actions and the protection of predicted suitable habitats are recommended to sustain the species conservation.}, }
@article {pmid35028448, year = {2022}, author = {Karatayev, M and Clarke, M and Salnikov, V and Bekseitova, R and Nizamova, M}, title = {Monitoring climate change, drought conditions and wheat production in Eurasia: the case study of Kazakhstan.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {e08660}, pmid = {35028448}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Wheat is an important global food security commodity. Kazakhstan is currently a producer and exporter of high-quality wheat to global markets. The most important wheat-growing regions, which lie in the northern part of Kazakhstan, are based on spring-sown rain-fed cultivation and are susceptible to climate change and drought. Using the monthly surface air temperature and precipitation data from 1950 to 2020 from 110 meteorological stations over Kazakhstan and in addition wheat cultivation data, the research aims to analyze climate change, drought occurrence, and wheat cultivation trends in Kazakhstan in recent 70 years and investigate relationships between wheat productivity and drought. The linear method and two drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) and in addition, Pearson's correlation coefficient have been used to characterise the climate change trends and vulnerability of agriculture in Kazakhstan to drought. The geographic information system (GIS) was applied to display climate change, drought, and wheat referenced information. The research has shown that the 70-year (1950-2020) linear rates of annual mean surface temperature in Kazakhstan have significantly increased (on average 0.31 °C per decade) with the precipitation trends are not obvious and fluctuated trends of drought. The wheat yield demonstrates strong internal variability and wheat yields were significantly correlated with 3-month June and July drought indices over the period of 1950-2020. The results underline the potential susceptibility of wheat yields in Kazakhstan to any future reductions in precipitation and increase in drought occurrence and intensity.}, }
@article {pmid35026270, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, Y and Tao, F and Chen, Y and Yin, L}, title = {Interactive impacts of climate change and agricultural management on soil organic carbon sequestration potential of cropland in China over the coming decades.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {817}, number = {}, pages = {153018}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153018}, pmid = {35026270}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon/analysis ; *Carbon Sequestration ; China ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Cropland plays an important role in Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) sequestration. Although the SOC stock and its dynamic in the past decades have been extensively investigated, the information as to where, how much, and how SOC could be potentially sequestered in the coming decades has rarely been available. Here, the Rothamsted Carbon model was applied to investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of SOC sequestration potential for China's cropland in 2021-2040 at 1 km resolution, as well as the interactive impacts of climate change and agricultural management on SOC sequestration. Under the combined impacts of climate change and C input, the SOC sequestration of China's cropland in 2021-2040 would be about 0.56 Mg C ha[-1] (0.06% yr[-1]), 1.33 Mg C ha[-1] (0.15% yr[-1]), 2.10 Mg C ha[-1] (0.24% yr[-1]), and 3.65 Mg C ha[-1] (0.41% yr[-1]), with no increase, 5%, 10%, and 20% increase of C input, respectively. Therefore, a >20% increase in C input would be necessary to realize the promise of the '4 per 1000' initiative. Climate change would decrease SOC sequestration by 26.6-27.6 Tg yr[-1] (or 60.4-62.7%). An increase of C input by 0%, 5%, 10%, and 20% relative to business as usual (BAU) would increase SOC sequestration by 4.8 (or 10.8%), 6.6 (or 14.9%), 13.1 (or 29.8%), and 26.2 (or 59.6%) Tg yr[-1], respectively. The contributions of temperature, precipitation, and C input to SOC sequestration will be averagely 18.6%, 22.4%, and 59.0%, respectively. Our findings quantify the SOC sequestration in 2021-2040 at a high spatial resolution under the interactive impacts of climate change and agricultural management, which help to identify potential foci and develop region-specific measures to increase SOC sequestration efficiently.}, }
@article {pmid35025640, year = {2022}, author = {Fricke, EC and Ordonez, A and Rogers, HS and Svenning, JC}, title = {The effects of defaunation on plants' capacity to track climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {375}, number = {6577}, pages = {210-214}, doi = {10.1126/science.abk3510}, pmid = {35025640}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Mammals ; Models, Biological ; Plant Dispersal ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Population Dynamics ; *Seed Dispersal ; }, abstract = {Half of all plant species rely on animals to disperse their seeds. Seed dispersal interactions lost through defaunation and gained during novel community assembly influence whether plants can adapt to climate change through migration. We develop trait-based models to predict pairwise interactions and dispersal function for fleshy-fruited plants globally. Using interactions with introduced species as an observable proxy for interactions in future novel seed dispersal networks, we find strong potential to forecast their assembly and functioning. We conservatively estimate that mammal and bird defaunation has already reduced the capacity of plants to track climate change by 60% globally. This strong reduction in the ability of plants to adapt to climate change through range shifts shows a synergy between defaunation and climate change that undermines vegetation resilience.}, }
@article {pmid35025040, year = {2022}, author = {Sun, L and Fang, S and Iqbal, S and Bilal, AR}, title = {Financial stability role on climate risks, and climate change mitigation: Implications for green economic recovery.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {22}, pages = {33063-33074}, pmid = {35025040}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Policy ; }, abstract = {As a response to the topic of how financial stability might be used to effectively finance for the mitigation of climate change and climate risks, it is important to look at the carbon risk that is still present in G-5 nations. The goal of our research is to determine the impact of financial stability on climate risk in order to effectively manage climate mitigation efforts. A technique called GMM is used to achieve this goal. Climate change mitigation was found to be substantial at 18 percent, while financial stability and carbon hazards were found significant at 21 percent, according to the conclusions of the study. Furthermore, the G-5 countries' 19.5% correlation between financial stability and emissions drift, which raises climate change concerns, is noteworthy. In order to implement green economic recovery methods, one of the most strongly regarded approaches to mitigating climate change and ensuring long-term financial potential at the national scale, a country's financial stability is required. The research on green economic expansion also offers the associated stakeholders with detailed policy implications on this relevance.}, }
@article {pmid35020673, year = {2022}, author = {Haddock, R and de Latour, R and Siau, K and Hayee, B and Gayam, S}, title = {Climate Change and Gastroenterology: Planetary Primum Non Nocere and How Industry Must Help.}, journal = {The American journal of gastroenterology}, volume = {117}, number = {3}, pages = {394-400}, doi = {10.14309/ajg.0000000000001604}, pmid = {35020673}, issn = {1572-0241}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; *Gastroenterology ; Humans ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global emergency. Increasing awareness has led to policy changes regarding global industry emissions. The healthcare industry carbon footprint is large and growing more and more. Gastroenterology, with its heavy reliance on industry, is a major contributor toward this growth. For a significant change toward reducing the field's carbon footprint, it would involve serious industry commitment. At present, there are no clear guidelines or regulations on controlling healthcare-related industry emissions and improving sustainability. This narrative review aims to provide practical suggestions at each step of the supply chain can lead to greater sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid35019053, year = {2022}, author = {Álvarez-Miño, L and Montoya, RT}, title = {Taxonomy for citizen actions on public health and climate change: a proposal.}, journal = {Revista de saude publica}, volume = {55}, number = {}, pages = {119}, pmid = {35019053}, issn = {1518-8787}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {Facing complex issues such as climate change and its effects on public health require the participation of various actors. The research tool citizen science is one way for people to get involved. Through it, citizens collaborate with scientists to find solutions to problems in their territories. From a participatory work with citizens, we designed a taxonomy proposal, which can facilitate citizen and community action in suggesting research ideas. We expect stakeholders to use it to systematically classify and code initial questions and answers on public health and climate change issues. The development of this taxonomy integrates the global agenda of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in such a way that citizens not only help their communities but also, the direct fulfillment of SDGs such as Climate Action (SDG 13), indirectly impacting other SDGs - given their interdependent nature (SDG 3, SDG 5, SDG 6, SDG 7, SDG 11, SDG 12). The systematic classification and coding of citizens' contributions worldwide will contribute to the large-scale organized collection of information to be analyzed in proposing better responses to reduce the impacts of climate change on health.}, }
@article {pmid35018840, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {Global Climate Change and News of Difference: Collective Action for Planetary Health and Family Health.}, journal = {Journal of family nursing}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {3-5}, doi = {10.1177/10748407211070079}, pmid = {35018840}, issn = {1552-549X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Family Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid35018130, year = {2022}, author = {Chatterjee, R and Chatterjee, A and Islam, SH}, title = {Deep learning techniques for observing the impact of the global warming from satellite images of water-bodies.}, journal = {Multimedia tools and applications}, volume = {81}, number = {5}, pages = {6115-6130}, pmid = {35018130}, issn = {1380-7501}, abstract = {Global warming is a threat to modern human civilization. There are different reasons for speed up the global average temperature. The consequences are catastrophic for human existence. Seafloor rise, drought, flood, wildfire, dry riverbed are some of the consequences. This paper analyzes the changes in boundaries of different water bodies such as fresh-water lakes and glacial lakes. Over time, the area covered by a water body has been varied due to human interventions or natural causes. Here, variants of Detectron2 instance segmentation architectures have been employed to detect a water-body and compute the changes in its area from the time-lapsed images captured over 32 years, that is, 1984 to 2016. The models are validated using water-bodies images taken by the Sentinel-2 Satellite and compared based on the average precision (AP), 99.95 and 94.51 at A P 50 and A P 75 metrics, respectively. In addition, an ensemble approach has also been introduced for the efficient identification of shrinkage or expansion of water bodies.}, }
@article {pmid35017586, year = {2022}, author = {Paudel Timilsena, B and Niassy, S and Kimathi, E and Abdel-Rahman, EM and Seidl-Adams, I and Wamalwa, M and Tonnang, HEZ and Ekesi, S and Hughes, DP and Rajotte, EG and Subramanian, S}, title = {Potential distribution of fall armyworm in Africa and beyond, considering climate change and irrigation patterns.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {539}, pmid = {35017586}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, abstract = {The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (FAW), first invaded Africa in 2016 and has since become established in many areas across the continent where it poses a serious threat to food and nutrition security. We re-parameterized the existing CLIMEX model to assess the FAW global invasion threat, emphasizing the risk of transient and permanent population establishment in Africa under current and projected future climates, considering irrigation patterns. FAW can establish itself in almost all countries in eastern and central Africa and a large part of western Africa under the current climate. Climatic barriers, such as heat and dry stresses, may limit the spread of FAW to North and South Africa. Future projections suggest that FAW invasive range will retract from both northern and southern regions towards the equator. However, a large area in eastern and central Africa is projected to have an optimal climate for FAW persistence. These areas will serve as FAW 'hotspots' from where it may migrate to the north and south during favorable seasons and then pose an economic threat. Our projections can be used to identify countries at risk for permanent and transient FAW-population establishment and inform timely integrated pest management interventions under present and future climate in Africa.}, }
@article {pmid35015248, year = {2022}, author = {Carmen, E and Fazey, I and Ross, H and Bedinger, M and Smith, FM and Prager, K and McClymont, K and Morrison, D}, title = {Building community resilience in a context of climate change: The role of social capital.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {51}, number = {6}, pages = {1371-1387}, pmid = {35015248}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {ES/J500136/1//Economic and Social Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Social Capital ; }, abstract = {Social capital is considered important for resilience across social levels, including communities, yet insights are scattered across disciplines. This meta-synthesis of 187 studies examines conceptual and empirical understandings of how social capital relates to resilience, identifying implications for community resilience and climate change practice. Different conceptualisations are highlighted, yet also limited focus on underlying dimensions of social capital and proactive types of resilience for engaging with the complex climate change challenge. Empirical insights show that structural and socio-cultural aspects of social capital, multiple other factors and formal actors are all important for shaping the role of social capital for guiding resilience outcomes. Thus, finding ways to work with these different elements is important. Greater attention on how and why outcomes emerge, interactions between factors, approaches of formal actors and different socio-cultural dimensions will advance understandings about how to nurture social capital for resilience in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35013960, year = {2022}, author = {Bhardwaj, M and Kumar, P and Kumar, S and Dagar, V and Kumar, A}, title = {A district-level analysis for measuring the effects of climate change on production of agricultural crops, i.e., wheat and paddy: evidence from India.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {21}, pages = {31861-31885}, pmid = {35013960}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Economic Development ; *Oryza ; Triticum ; }, abstract = {The present study aims to examine the impact of climate change on wheat and rice yield in Punjab, India, during 1981-2017. The study employs fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and pooled mean group (PMG) approaches. The Pedroni cointegration has established a long-run relationship of climate variables with rice and wheat crops. FMOLS and DOLS models show that minimum temperature has a positive effect on both wheat and rice. In contrast, the maximum temperature is found to be negatively contributing to both crops. Rainfall has a significant adverse impact on the production of wheat. In the study period, seasonal rainfall has been found detrimental for the production of wheat and rice crops, indicating that excess rainfall proved counterproductive. Moreover, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test has revealed a unidirectional causality running from minimum temperature, rainfall, and maximum temperature for rice and wheat production. The findings of the study suggest that the government should invest in developing stress-tolerant varieties of wheat and rice, managing crop residuals to curb other environmental effects, and sustaining natural resources for ensuring food security.}, }
@article {pmid35013464, year = {2022}, author = {Kaufman, J and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Tam, V and Song, L and Coffel, E and Tasian, G}, title = {The impact of heat on kidney stone presentations in South Carolina under two climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {369}, pmid = {35013464}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {K23DK106428/DK/NIDDK NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Greenhouse Gases ; Health Care Costs/trends ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Kidney Calculi/diagnosis/economics/*epidemiology/therapy ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; South Carolina/epidemiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The risk of kidney stone presentations increases after hot days, likely due to greater insensible water losses resulting in more concentrated urine and altered urinary flow. It is thus expected that higher temperatures from climate change will increase the global prevalence of kidney stones if no adaptation measures are put in place. This study aims to quantify the impact of heat on kidney stone presentations through 2089, using South Carolina as a model state. We used a time series analysis of historical kidney stone presentations (1997-2014) and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the temperature dependence of kidney stone presentations, and then quantified the projected impact of climate change on future heat-related kidney stone presentations using daily projections of wet-bulb temperatures to 2089, assuming no adaptation or demographic changes. Two climate change models were considered-one assuming aggressive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 4.5) and one representing uninibited greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5). The estimated total statewide kidney stone presentations attributable to heat are projected to increase by 2.2% in RCP 4.5 and 3.9% in RCP 8.5 by 2085-89 (vs. 2010-2014), with an associated total excess cost of ~ $57 million and ~ $99 million, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid35012989, year = {2022}, author = {Van Doren, BM}, title = {How migratory birds might have tracked past climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {35012989}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid35010857, year = {2022}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Nagy, GJ and Martinho, F and Saroar, M and Erache, MG and Primo, AL and Pardal, MA and Li, C}, title = {Influences of Climate Change and Variability on Estuarine Ecosystems: An Impact Study in Selected European, South American and Asian Countries.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {35010857}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Estuaries ; Fisheries ; Fishes ; }, abstract = {It is well-known that climate change significantly impacts ecosystems (at the macro-level) and individual species (at the micro-level). Among the former, estuaries are the most vulnerable and affected ecosystems. However, despite the strong relations between climate change and estuaries, there is a gap in the literature regarding international studies across different regions investigating the impacts of climate change and variability on estuaries in different geographical zones. This paper addresses this need and reviews the impacts of climate change, variability and extreme weather on estuaries. It emphasises the following: (i) a set of climate parameters governing estuarine hydrology and processes; and (ii) a sample of countries in Asia (Bangladesh), Europe (Portugal) and South America (Uruguay). We reviewed the influences of the climatic drivers of the estuarine hydrology, ecological processes and specific species in estuarine communities across the selected geographical regions, along with an analysis of their long-term implications. The key results from the three estuaries are as following: (i) Hilsa fish, of which the catches contribute to 10% of the total earnings of the fishery sector (1% of GDP), are affected by climate-forced hydrological and productivity changes in the Meghna; (ii) extreme droughts and short-term severe precipitation have driven the long-term abundance and spatial distribution of both fish larvae and juveniles/adults in the Mondego; and (iii) the river inflow and fluctuations increases since the early 1970s have contributed to variations in the salinity, the stratification, the oxygen, nutrient and trophic levels and the spatial pattern for the life stages of planktonic species, fish biomass and captures in the Rio de la Plata. The results suggested that immediate action is needed to reduce the vulnerability of estuaries to climate stressors, mainly the changing river flows, storms and sea-level rise. As a contribution to addressing current problems, we described a set of adaptation strategies to foster climate resilience and adaptive capacity (e.g., early-warning systems, dam management to prevent overflows and adaptive fisheries management). The implications of this paper are two-fold. Firstly, it showcases a variety of problems that estuaries face from changing climate conditions. Secondly, the paper outlines the need for suitable adaptive management strategies to safeguard the integrity of such vital ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid35010816, year = {2022}, author = {Shen, J and Duan, W and Wang, Y and Zhang, Y}, title = {Household Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change in West China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {35010816}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Family Characteristics ; }, abstract = {Climate change disproportionately affects natural resource-dependent communities in the ecologically vulnerable regions of western China. This study used the household livelihood vulnerability index under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (HLV-IPCC) to assess vulnerability. Data were collected from 823 households in Ningxia, Gansu, Guangxi, and Yunnan provinces, these being ecologically vulnerable regions in China. With a composite HLVI-IPCC and multiple regression model, the factors that affect households' adaptive capability to HLVI-IPCC was estimated. Results indicate that Ningxia is the most vulnerable community, while Guangxi is the least vulnerable community across all indices. Moreover, Gansu has the heaviest sensitivity and exposure to climate change, whereas Ningxia has the highest adaptive capability to climate change. In addition, the age of household head and distance of the home to the town center had significant negative impacts on households' adaptive capacity to HLVI-IPCC. The results also suggest that the HLVI assessment can provide an effective tool for local authorities to formulate prioritizing strategies with promoting climate-resilient development and increasing long-term adaptive capacity.}, }
@article {pmid35010724, year = {2022}, author = {Shimada, G}, title = {The Impact of Climate-Change-Related Disasters on Africa's Economic Growth, Agriculture, and Conflicts: Can Humanitarian Aid and Food Assistance Offset the Damage?.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {35010724}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Africa ; Agriculture ; Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Economic Development ; *Food Assistance ; *Relief Work ; }, abstract = {This study analyzed the impact of climate-related natural disasters (droughts, floods, storms/rainstorms) on economic and social variables. As the Africa-specific empirical literature is limited, this study used panel data from 1961-2011 on Africa. The study used a panel data regression model analysis. The results showed that climate change-related natural disasters affected Africa's economic growth, agriculture, and poverty and caused armed conflicts. Among the disasters, droughts are the main cause of negative impact, severely affecting crops such as maize and coffee and resulting in increased urban poverty and armed conflicts. In contrast, international aid has a positive effect but the impact is insignificant compared to the negative consequences of climate-related natural disasters. Cereal food assistance has a negative crowding-out effect on cereal production. International donors should review their interventions to support Africa's adaptative capacity to disasters. Government efficiency has reduced the number of deaths, and this is an area that supports Africa's adaptative efforts.}, }
@article {pmid35010293, year = {2021}, author = {Adepoju, OE and Han, D and Chae, M and Smith, KL and Gilbert, L and Choudhury, S and Woodard, L}, title = {Health Disparities and Climate Change: The Intersection of Three Disaster Events on Vulnerable Communities in Houston, Texas.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {35010293}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {62322251//Walmart (United States)/ ; }, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; *Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Social Vulnerability ; Texas ; }, abstract = {Although evidence suggests that successive climate disasters are on the rise, few studies have documented the disproportionate impacts on communities of color. Through the unique lens of successive disaster events (Hurricane Harvey and Winter Storm Uri) coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic, we assessed disaster exposure in minority communities in Harris County, Texas. A mixed methods approach employing qualitative and quantitative designs was used to examine the relationships between successive disasters (and the role of climate change), population geography, race, and health disparities-related outcomes. This study identified four communities in the greater Houston area with predominantly non-Hispanic African American residents. We used data chronicling the local community and environment to build base maps and conducted spatial analyses using Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping. We complemented these data with focus groups to assess participants' experiences in disaster planning and recovery, as well as community resilience. Thematic analysis was used to identify key patterns. Across all four communities, we observed significant Hurricane Harvey flooding and significantly greater exposure to 10 of the 11 COVID-19 risk factors examined, compared to the rest of the county. Spatial analyses reveal higher disease burden, greater social vulnerability, and significantly higher community-level risk factors for both pandemics and disaster events in the four communities, compared to all other communities in Harris County. Two themes emerged from thematic data analysis: (1) Prior disaster exposure prepared minority populations in Harris County to better handle subsequent disaster suggesting enhanced disaster resilience, and (2) social connectedness was key to disaster resiliency. Long-standing disparities make people of color at greater risk for social vulnerability. Addressing climate change offers the potential to alleviate these health disparities.}, }
@article {pmid35010275, year = {2021}, author = {Kim, W and Che, C and Jeong, C}, title = {Hotel Guests' Psychological Distance of Climate Change and Environment-Friendly Behavior Intention.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {35010275}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Intention ; Psychological Distance ; Self Concept ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change is certainly a global problem that negatively affects all nations, and thus all humans, on the globe. Nevertheless, little is known about people's perceptions of climate change and its effects on people's attitudinal and behavioral responses to climate change. The present study successfully addressed how hotel guests' environment-friendly behavior intention is formed through their self-perception as a member of the global community and their psychological distance of climate change. An online survey was used to collect quantitative data from hotel guests to verify the hypotheses. Our test results supported all the hypotheses in our conceptual model. Consequently, the findings of this study satisfactorily explained how hotel guests form their intention to engage in environment-friendly behaviors while they are staying at hotels.}, }
@article {pmid35010126, year = {2022}, author = {Verma, KK and Song, XP and Joshi, A and Tian, DD and Rajput, VD and Singh, M and Arora, J and Minkina, T and Li, YR}, title = {Recent Trends in Nano-Fertilizers for Sustainable Agriculture under Climate Change for Global Food Security.}, journal = {Nanomaterials (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {35010126}, issn = {2079-4991}, support = {nycytxgxcxtd-2021-03//Guangxi Innovation Teams of Modern Agriculture Technology/ ; 31901594//Youth Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 31760415//The National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2021GXNSFAA220022//Guangxi Natural Science Foundation/ ; 2021YT011//Fund of Guangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Nano-fertilizers (NFs) significantly improve soil quality and plant growth performance and enhance crop production with quality fruits/grains. The management of macro-micronutrients is a big task globally, as it relies predominantly on synthetic chemical fertilizers which may not be environmentally friendly for human beings and may be expensive for farmers. NFs may enhance nutrient uptake and plant production by regulating the availability of fertilizers in the rhizosphere; extend stress resistance by improving nutritional capacity; and increase plant defense mechanisms. They may also substitute for synthetic fertilizers for sustainable agriculture, being found more suitable for stimulation of plant development. They are associated with mitigating environmental stresses and enhancing tolerance abilities under adverse atmospheric eco-variables. Recent trends in NFs explored relevant agri-technology to fill the gaps and assure long-term beneficial agriculture strategies to safeguard food security globally. Accordingly, nanoparticles are emerging as a cutting-edge agri-technology for agri-improvement in the near future. Interestingly, they do confer stress resistance capabilities to crop plants. The effective and appropriate mechanisms are revealed in this article to update researchers widely.}, }
@article {pmid35009124, year = {2021}, author = {Yao, L and Wang, D and Wang, D and Li, S and Chen, Y and Guo, Y}, title = {Phenotypic Plasticity and Local Adaptation of Leaf Cuticular Waxes Favor Perennial Alpine Herbs under Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {35009124}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {31672487//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 31771694//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Six perennial herbs (Plantago asiatica, Polygonum viviparum, Anaphalis lactea, Kobresia humilis, Leontopodium nanum and Potentilla chinensis) widely distributed in alpine meadows were reciprocally transplanted at two sites in eastern edge of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Hongyuan (3434 m, 2.97 °C, 911 mm) and Qilian (3701 m, 2.52 °C, 472 mm), aiming to evaluate the responses of alpine plants to changing environments. When plants were transplanted from Hongyuan to Qilian, most plant species showed a decrease of total wax coverage in first year and reverse trend was observed for some plant species in second year. However, when plants were transplanted from Qilian to Hongyuan, the response of total wax coverage differed greatly between plant species. When compared with those in first year, plasticity index of average chain length of alkane decreased whereas carbon preference index of alkane increased at both Hongyuan and Qilian in second year. The total wax coverage differed between local and transplanted plants, suggesting both environmental and genetic factors controlled the wax depositions. Structural equation modeling indicated that co-variations existed between leaf cuticular waxes and leaf functional traits. These results suggest that alpine herbs adjust both wax depositions and chain length distributions to adapt to changing environment, showing climate adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid35009073, year = {2021}, author = {Nunes, LJR and Meireles, CIR and Gomes, CJP and Ribeiro, NMCA}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Forest Development: A Sustainable Approach to Management Models Applied to Mediterranean-Type Climate Regions.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {35009073}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {UIDP/05975/2020//FCT - Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; }, abstract = {Forest ecosystems are divided into three major groups: boreal, temperate, and tropical. These can be subdivided according to the particularities of each type due to its relative location (littoral, mountain, etc.), climatic conditions, or even geological substrate. Climate change affects each type of forest ecosystem differently. However, it seems to affect temperate forests in Mediterranean-type climate regions more intensely. These regions are located over several continents, with major impacts of increased temperature during summer and decreased precipitation during winter. This situation affects Mediterranean forest ecosystems by increasing the risk of fires, which arise more frequently and are more severe. In addition, the emergence of pests and the spread of invasive species are well-known problems affecting these ecosystems. All of these conditions contribute to losses of productivity and biodiversity. To avoid the destruction of forest resources, and since Mediterranean-type climate regions are considered climate change hot spots with increased vulnerability to disturbances, the implementation of adaptive forest management models could contribute to increasing the resilience of such forests, which could also contribute to mitigating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35007947, year = {2022}, author = {Galway, LP and Esquega, E and Jones-Casey, K}, title = {"Land is everything, land is us": Exploring the connections between climate change, land, and health in Fort William First Nation.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {294}, number = {}, pages = {114700}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.114700}, pmid = {35007947}, issn = {1873-5347}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Health Status ; Humans ; *Indigenous Peoples ; Ontario ; Universities ; }, abstract = {The myriad and cumulative impacts of climate change on land, communities, and health are increasingly evident worldwide. Throughout 2019 and 2020, Fort William First Nation and researchers at Lakehead University conducted a project to document and understand connections among climate change, land, and health from the perspective of Elders, knowledge keepers, and community members with close ties to the land. Fort William First Nation is an Anishinaabe community located on the shores of Lake Superior/Kitchigami in Northern Ontario and within Robinson-Superior Treaty territory. This paper describes the analysis of interviews with 22 community members. Two-Eyed Seeing, an approach that centers the working together of Indigenous and non-Indigenous knowledges and peoples and demands respectful relationship building, guided our project and analysis. Our analysis identified five themes: 1) observations and experiences of changes on the land, 2) lack of care and respect for Mother Earth as the root cause of climate change, 3) healthy land, healthy people, 4) youth and future generations, and 5) (re-)connecting with land and culture. 'All our Relations' is a thread woven across these themes emphasizing that climate change is understood and experienced through relationships and relationality. As concluding thoughts and reflections, we share three specific offerings of particular relevance to those engaging in climate change and health research and action with Indigenous peoples and communities. First, this research has highlighted the importance of explicitly centering land when exploring the links between climate change and health. Second, we reflect on the value of both the Two-Eyed Seeing approach and the Medicine Wheel in guiding climate change and health research. Third, we argue for an explicit focus on relationships and relationality in efforts aimed at understanding and addressing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid35007587, year = {2022}, author = {Li, Y and Hou, R and Liu, X and Chen, Y and Tao, F}, title = {Changes in wheat traits under future climate change and their contributions to yield changes in conventional vs. conservational tillage systems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {815}, number = {}, pages = {152947}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.152947}, pmid = {35007587}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Plant Breeding ; Soil ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Exploring the changes in wheat traits under future climate change and their contributions to yield changes is essential to improve the understanding of climate impact mechanisms and develop climate-resilient cultivars, which however has been seldom conducted. In this study, using a process-based crop model (APSIM-Wheat), meta-regression analyses, and machine learning approaches, we assessed the impacts of different warming levels on soil environments and wheat traits; investigated the impacts of future climate change on wheat traits, growth and development; and identified the favorable wheat traits for breeding under future climate change conditions. Meta-analyses showed that climate warming could significantly advance anthesis date by 3.50% and shorten the entire growth duration by 1.18%, although the duration from anthesis to maturity could be elongated by 7.72%. It could also increase grain yield slightly by 2.72% in the North China Plain, mainly due to the increase in biomass by 6.66%, grain weight by 3.86% and the elongating grain-filling period. However, high temperatures could significantly reduce aboveground biomass. The APSIM-Wheat model was validated based on three years' high-quality environment-controlled experimental data in the long-term warming and conservation tillage fields at Yucheng comprehensive experiment station in the North China Plain. The results showed that the mean yield would decrease under RCP4.5 for both tillage managements (conservational tillage: 0.55%, no-tillage: 6.88%), but increase conservational tillage yield (7.7%) under RCP8.5, relative to 1980-2010, owing to the interactive impacts of climate, CO2 and tillage on wheat traits. Soil moisture would play a more important role in biomass, yield, height, LAI, and grain number for conventional tillage than for no-tillage system, and in the future than in the historical period. Our findings gained insights into the impacts of climate change on wheat traits and yield under different tillage managements, which are essential to understand climate change impact mechanisms and develop climate-resilient cultivars.}, }
@article {pmid35005276, year = {2021}, author = {Ogunleye, A and Kehinde, A and Mishra, A and Ogundeji, A}, title = {Impacts of farmers' participation in social capital networks on climate change adaptation strategies adoption in Nigeria.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {e08624}, pmid = {35005276}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Most studies on climate change adaptation strategies adoption have focused on economic factors with little or no attention to the impact of collective actions and social capital networks. This paper investigates how farmers' participation in social capital networks influenced climate change adaptation strategies adoption in Nigeria. This study was carried out in the South-western Nigeria. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, binary probit regression, multinomial logit regression, endogenous switching regression and multinomial endogenous switching regression models. The results suggest that significant differences exist in the years of membership in the social capital networks, access to weather information and market between farm managers who adopted climate change adaptation strategies and those who did not. Plot managers who adopted climate change adaptation strategies are found to have obtained much mean yield and farm revenue than their counterparts. The results further show that participation in the social capital networks does not only significantly influence plot manager's decision to adopt but also influences the choice of climate change adaptation strategies adopted by farmers. The study concludes that a farmer who chooses to participate in social capital networks has a higher level of adopting climate change adaptation strategies than what a random farmer would have had in Nigeria. We recommend that policies aimed at increasing the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies among farmers should be channelled through locally organised farmers-based social capital networks.}, }
@article {pmid35003694, year = {2021}, author = {Lemoine, NP}, title = {Phenology dictates the impact of climate change on geographic distributions of six co-occurring North American grasshoppers.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {24}, pages = {18575-18590}, pmid = {35003694}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Throughout the last century, climate change has altered the geographic distributions of many species. Insects, in particular, vary in their ability to track changing climates, and it is likely that phenology is an important determinant of how well insects can either expand or shift their geographic distributions in response to climate change. Grasshoppers are an ideal group to test the hypothesis that phenology correlates with range expansion, given that co-occurring confamilial, and even congeneric, species can differ in phenology. Here, I tested the hypothesis that early- and late-season species should possess different range expansion potentials, as estimated by habitat suitability from ecological niche models. I used nine different modeling techniques to estimate habitat suitability of six grasshopper species of varying phenology under two climate scenarios for the year 2050. My results suggest that, of the six species examined here, early-season species were more sensitive to climate change than late-season species. The three early-season species examined here might shift northward during the spring, while the modeled geographic distributions of the three late-season species were generally constant under climate change, likely because they were pre-adapted to hot and dry conditions. Phenology might therefore be a good predictor of how insect distributions might change in the future, but this hypothesis remains to be tested at a broader scale.}, }
@article {pmid35003678, year = {2021}, author = {Huang, J}, title = {Effects of climate change on different geographical populations of the cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae).}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {24}, pages = {18357-18368}, pmid = {35003678}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The effects of climate change on pest phenology and population size are highly variable. Understanding the impacts of localized climate change on pest distribution and phenology is helpful for improving integrated pest management strategies. Here, the population dynamics of cotton bollworms (Helicoverpa armigera) from Maigaiti County, south Xinjiang, and Shawan County, north Xinjiang, China, were analyzed using a 29-year dataset at lower latitudes and a 23-year dataset at higher latitudes to determine the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of H. armigera. The results showed that all generations of H. armigera at both sites showed increasing trends in population size with climate warming. Abrupt changes in phenology and population number occurred after abrupt temperature changes. Climate change had a greater effect on the phenology of H. armigera at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes and led to a greater increase in population size at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes; the temperature increase at higher latitudes will cause a greater increase in the adult moth population size in the future compared to that at lower latitudes; and abrupt changes in the phenology, temperature increase, and population size at lower latitudes occurred earlier than those at higher latitudes. Thus, it is necessary to develop sustainable management strategies for Helicoverpa armigera at an early stage.}, }
@article {pmid35003667, year = {2021}, author = {Amarasinghe, P and Barve, N and Kathriarachchi, H and Loiselle, B and Cellinese, N}, title = {Niche dynamics of Memecylon in Sri Lanka: Distribution patterns, climate change effects, and conservation priorities.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {24}, pages = {18196-18215}, pmid = {35003667}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Recent climate projections have shown that the distribution of organisms in island biotas is highly affected by climate change. Here, we present the result of the analysis of niche dynamics of a plant group, Memecylon, in Sri Lanka, an island, using species occurrences and climate data. We aim to determine which climate variables explain current distribution, model how climate change impacts the availability of suitable habitat for Memecylon, and determine conservation priority areas for Sri Lankan Memecylon. We used georeferenced occurrence data of Sri Lankan Memecylon to develop ecological niche models and assess both current and future potential distributions under six climate change scenarios in 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. We also overlaid land cover and protected area maps and performed a gap analysis to understand the impacts of land-cover changes on Memecylon distributions and propose new areas for conservation. Differences among suitable habitats of Memecylon were found to be related to patterns of endemism. Under varying future climate scenarios, endemic groups were predicted to experience habitat shifts, gains, or losses. The narrow endemic Memecylon restricted to the montane zone were predicted to be the most impacted by climate change. Projections also indicated that changes in species' habitats can be expected as early as 2041-2060. Gap analysis showed that while narrow endemic categories are considerably protected as demonstrated by their overlap with protected areas, more conservation efforts in Sri Lankan forests containing wide endemic and nonendemic Memecylon are needed. This research helped clarify general patterns of responses of Sri Lankan Memecylon to global climate change. Data from this study are useful for designing measures aimed at filling the gaps in forest conservation on this island.}, }
@article {pmid35002262, year = {2021}, author = {Hauser, N and Conlon, KC and Desai, A and Kobziar, LN}, title = {Climate Change and Infections on the Move in North America.}, journal = {Infection and drug resistance}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {5711-5723}, pmid = {35002262}, issn = {1178-6973}, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly recognized for its impacts on human health, including how biotic and abiotic factors are driving shifts in infectious disease. Changes in ecological conditions and processes due to temperature and precipitation fluctuations and intensified disturbance regimes are affecting infectious pathogen transmission, habitat, hosts, and the characteristics of pathogens themselves. Understanding the relationships between climate change and infectious diseases can help clinicians broaden the scope of differential diagnoses when interviewing, diagnosing, and treating patients presenting with infections lacking obvious agents or transmission pathways. Here, we highlight key examples of how the mechanisms of climate change affect infectious diseases associated with water, fire, land, insects, and human transmission pathways in the hope of expanding the analytical framework for infectious disease diagnoses. Increased awareness of these relationships can help prepare both clinical physicians and epidemiologists for continued impacts of climate change on infectious disease in the future.}, }
@article {pmid34999232, year = {2022}, author = {Roos, EJ}, title = {Call for Leadership: Climate Change and the Future Health of Girls.}, journal = {Journal of pediatric and adolescent gynecology}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, pages = {107-108}, doi = {10.1016/j.jpag.2021.12.015}, pmid = {34999232}, issn = {1873-4332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; *Leadership ; }, }
@article {pmid34998456, year = {2022}, author = {Adyel, TM and Macreadie, PI}, title = {Plastics in blue carbon ecosystems: a call for global cooperation on climate change goals.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {e2-e3}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00327-2}, pmid = {34998456}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Goals ; Plastics ; }, }
@article {pmid34997302, year = {2023}, author = {Shabani, Y and Pauline, NM}, title = {Perceived Effective Adaptation Strategies against Climate Change Impacts: Perspectives of Maize Growers in the Southern Highlands of Tanzania.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {71}, number = {1}, pages = {179-189}, pmid = {34997302}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Humans ; *Zea mays ; *Climate Change ; Tanzania ; Agriculture ; Farms ; }, abstract = {The world has been experiencing a tremendous increase in the average of warmth and shifts in rainfall quantity, seasonality, and occurrence of prolonged droughts, increased temperatures and intense precipitation. This study assessed effective adaptation strategies used by maize growers in cushioning climate change impacts in Iringa district. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected. Qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions, key informant interviews and participant observations, while quantitative data were collected using household questionnaire. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected covering a wide range of climate change impacts and response strategies. We found that maize production has decreased during the past two decades, since the year 2000 (i.e., from the average of 10-15 to 2-5 maize sacks per acre). It was affirmed that increased yield outputs and incomes are among the key determinants for the effectiveness of a response strategy. Findings indicate that some response strategies indicated a significant increase in maize crop yield. Such responses include using improved maize variety (P = 0.000 (P < 0.05), drought-tolerant crop (P = 0.014 (P < 0.05), changing planting dates (P = 0.001 (P < 0.05) and crop rotation (P = 0.000 (P < 0.05). Barriers such as access to capital, poor farming technologies, absence of improved maize agencies or shops, poor access to weather information and high prices for farm inputs to adopting effective adaptation strategies were uncovered. Moreover, most adaptation strategies were found to significantly increase crop production to most of the household farmers, thus leading to high mazie production. Thus, maize growers need support to enhance their locally-led adaptation options to climatic impacts.}, }
@article {pmid34996025, year = {2022}, author = {Faverdin, P and Guyomard, H and Puillet, L and Forslund, A}, title = {Animal board invited review: Specialising and intensifying cattle production for better efficiency and less global warming: contrasting results for milk and meat co-production at different scales.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {100431}, doi = {10.1016/j.animal.2021.100431}, pmid = {34996025}, issn = {1751-732X}, mesh = {Animal Feed/analysis ; Animals ; Cattle ; *Dairying ; Female ; Global Warming ; Lactation ; Meat ; Methane ; *Milk ; }, abstract = {Cattle are the world's largest consumers of plant biomass. Digestion of this biomass by ruminants generates high methane emissions that affect global warming. In the last decades, the specialisation of cattle breeds and livestock systems towards either milk or meat has increased the milk production of dairy cows and the carcass weight of slaughtered cattle. At the animal level and farm level, improved animal performance decreases feed use and greenhouse gas emissions per kg of milk or carcass weight, mainly through a dilution of maintenance requirements per unit of product. However, increasing milk production per dairy cow reduces meat production from the dairy sector, as there are fewer dairy cows. More beef cows are then required if one wants to maintain the same meat production level at country scale. Meat produced from the dairy herd has a better feed efficiency (less feed required per kg of carcass weight) and emits less methane than the meat produced by the cow-calf systems, because the intake of lactating cows is largely for milk production and marginally for meat, whereas the intake of beef cows is entirely for meat. Consequently, the benefits of breed specialisation assessed at the animal level and farm level may not hold when milk and meat productions are considered together. Any change in the milk-to-meat production ratio at the country level affects the numbers of beef cows required to produce meat. At the world scale, a broad diversity in feed efficiencies of cattle products is observed. Where both productions of milk per dairy cow and meat per head of cattle are low, the relationship between milk and meat efficiencies is positive. Improved management practices (feed, reproduction, health) increase the feed efficiency of both products. Where milk and meat productivities are high, a trade-off between feed efficiencies of milk and meat can be observed in relation to the share of meat produced in either the dairy sector or the beef sector. As a result, in developing countries, increasing productivities of both dairy and beef cattle herds will increase milk and meat efficiencies, reduce land use and decrease methane emissions. In other regions of the world, increasing meat production from young animals produced by dairy cows is probably a better option to reduce feed use for an unchanged milk-to-meat production ratio.}, }
@article {pmid34995939, year = {2022}, author = {Yang, P and Zhang, S and Xia, J and Chen, Y and Zhang, Y and Cai, W and Wang, W and Wang, H and Luo, X and Chen, X}, title = {Risk assessment of water resource shortages in the Aksu River basin of northwest China under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {305}, number = {}, pages = {114394}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114394}, pmid = {34995939}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Angiotensin Receptor Antagonists ; Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors ; China ; *Climate Change ; Risk Assessment ; Rivers ; *Water Resources ; }, abstract = {As most of the runoff resulting from snow-ice melt is related to climate change factors in the arid region of northwest China, the risk to water resource systems threatens the socio-economic and ecological environment and is becoming increasingly prevalent. Therefore, we explored the risks of water resource shortages for different periods (2010, 2020, and 2030) in the Aksu River basin (ARB) in the northwest arid region of China by reconstructing a risk model based on the framework proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with an improved vulnerability (V) module and a more suitable hazard probability in the cost module. The major conclusions are as follows: (1) the simulation of the Community Land Model-Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (CLM-DTVGM) and the Vegetation Interface Processes model (VIP) was suitable for the eco-hydrological processes in the ARB under climate change (i.e., R[2] ≥ 0.583; Nash coefficient ≥0.371; and relative mean standard ≤155.727 for CLM-DTVGM; R[2] = 0.798 for VIP); (2) the vulnerability of the water resource system in the ARB was medium in 2010, and dropped to a medium-low to non-vulnerable level in 2020 before increasing in 2030 under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5); and (3) there was a medium-low risk of water resource shortages in the ARB in 2010 (i.e., 0.246), and although the risk of water resource shortages decreased in 2020 due to the increasing water supply from mountainous areas, the risk predicted to increase significantly in 2030, to a medium-high risk level. This study is critical for accurately predicting and understanding the impact of climate change on water resource systems as well as on the drought risk in arid regions.}, }
@article {pmid34993827, year = {2022}, author = {Hussain, Z}, title = {Environmental and Economic-oriented Transport Efficiency: The Role of Climate Change Mitigation Technology.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {19}, pages = {29165-29182}, pmid = {34993827}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Economic Development ; *Efficiency ; Technology ; }, abstract = {Transport sector is a vital aspect of economic and environment. However, it drastically contributes desirable and undesirable outputs to the economy and the environment due to its rapid development. Thus, transport efficiency related to the economy and the environment needs to be measured. Unlike existing studies that investigate environmental and economic impacts separately, this study analyzes the joint effect of economic and environmental factors. Furthermore, the role of transport-related climate change mitigation technology is also investigated using five inputs and three outputs for the period 2000 to 2020 for 35 OECD countries. This study employs two approaches: first, data envelopment analysis based on slack-based measure (DEA-SBM), and second, an advanced econometric method, i.e., cross-sectional dependence autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL). DEA-SBM shows that all countries are efficient-related economic and environmental effects through the transport sector. CS-ARDL shows that transport-related climate change mitigation technology has a remarkable impact on efficiency levels. Moreover, the joint effect of environmental research and development and climate change mitigation technologies adversely impacts transport efficiency. Climate change mitigation technology related to air has a higher impact than railway and road on economic and environmental transport efficiency. Findings suggest that countries should focus on policy implications regarding transport inputs and desirable and undesirable outputs.}, }
@article {pmid34993782, year = {2022}, author = {Sarfraz, M and Mohsin, M and Naseem, S}, title = {A blessing in disguise: new insights on the effect of COVID-19 on the carbon emission, climate change, and sustainable environment.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {20}, pages = {29651-29662}, pmid = {34993782}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control ; *Economic Development ; Humans ; }, abstract = {COVID-19, declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be a pandemic, has affected greenhouse gas emissions and contributed to the uncertainty of environmental activities. This study demonstrates the effect of lockdowns, the number of new confirmed cases, and the number of newly confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 on CO2 emissions. The data series used are for the UK from 23 March 2020 to 31 December 2020 and for Spain from 14 March 2020 to 31 December 2020. This research adopted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for a stationarity check of the data series, the Johansen cointegration test for determining cointegration among variables, and the vector error correction model (VEC) Granger causality test for directional cause and effect between exogenous and endogenous variables. The VEC model shows a bidirectional relationship between CO2 emissions and lockdown and a unidirectional relationship with newly confirmed cases and deaths for the UK. The results of Spain confirmed the unidirectional relationship of CO2 emissions, lockdown, new confirmed cases, and deaths. The Granger causality test reconfirms the relationship of variables except for newly confirmed deaths for the UK and newly confirmed cases for Spain. Conclusively, the pandemic breakout reduced the emission of CO2. The directional relation of variables supported the short-run relationship of CO2 emissions with newly confirmed cases and deaths, while a long- and short-run relationship was shown with lockdown. The directional and relational behavior of lockdown potentially linked the CO2 emissions with daily life activities.}, }
@article {pmid34993591, year = {2022}, author = {Jakučionytė-Skodienė, M and Liobikienė, G}, title = {The Changes in Climate Change Concern, Responsibility Assumption and Impact on Climate-friendly Behaviour in EU from the Paris Agreement Until 2019.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {69}, number = {1}, pages = {1-16}, pmid = {34993591}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the primary environmental problems broadly discussed in the Paris Agreement. In the literature, authors mainly focused on the changes in climate change concern. However, it is more important to answer whether the changes in concerns and responsibilities affect climate-friendly behaviour. Therefore, this study's objective was to analyse the changes in climate change concern, personal responsibility, and climate-friendly behaviour in EU-28 from 2015 (the launch of the Paris Agreement) to 2019 and evaluate how these changes contributed to separate actions. The changes in climate change concern and personal responsibility were statistically significant (F value). During the analysed period, the purchase of energy-efficient appliances increased the most. Meanwhile, the usage of environmentally friendly transport alternatives decreased. The determinants of changes in climate-friendly behaviour were identified using the multiple linear regression model. Results showed that changes in climate change concern significantly and positively affected waste management and choice of energy supplier which offers a greater share of energy from renewable sources and purchased of low-energy homes. Meanwhile, personal responsibility significantly and positively influenced switching energy suppliers but had a negative effect on home insulation. Furthermore, residents who performed high-cost behaviours (purchase of low-energy homes) also switched energy suppliers and insulated their homes. Therefore, the results indicated that the benefit and cost of behaviour (time, money) are very important aspects to promote climate-friendly behaviour. This study suggested that policymakers should raise public awareness about climate change and take all efforts to reduce the cost of high-cost behaviours and enable the possibilities to perform climate-friendly behaviour.}, }
@article {pmid34991246, year = {2022}, author = {Charlson, F and Ali, S and Augustinavicius, J and Benmarhnia, T and Birch, S and Clayton, S and Fielding, K and Jones, L and Juma, D and Snider, L and Ugo, V and Zeitz, L and Jayawardana, D and La Nauze, A and Massazza, A}, title = {Global priorities for climate change and mental health research.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {158}, number = {}, pages = {106984}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2021.106984}, pmid = {34991246}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Compared with other health areas, the mental health impacts of climate change have received less research attention. The literature on climate change and mental health is growing rapidly but is characterised by several limitations and research gaps. In a field where the need for designing evidence-based adaptation strategies is urgent, and research gaps are vast, implementing a broad, all-encompassing research agenda will require some strategic focus.<br><br>METHODS: We followed a structured approach to prioritise future climate change and mental health research. We consulted with experts working across mental health and climate change, both within and outside of research and working in high, middle, and low-income countries, to garner consensus about the future research priorities for mental health and climate change. Experts were identified based on whether they had published work on climate change and mental health, worked in governmental and non-governmental organisations on climate change and mental health, and from the professional networks of the authors who have been active in the mental health and climate change space.<br><br>RESULTS: Twenty-two experts participated from across low- and middle-income countries (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;4) and high-income countries (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;18). Our process identified ten key priorities for progressing research on mental health and climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: While climate change is considered the biggest threat to global mental health in the coming century, tackling this threat could be the most significant opportunity to shape our mental health for centuries to come because of health co-benefits of transitioning to more sustainable ways of living. Research on the impacts of climate change on mental health and mental health-related systems will assist decision-makers to develop robust evidence-based mitigation and adaptation policies and plans with the potential for broad benefits to society and the environment.}, }
@article {pmid34989992, year = {2022}, author = {Wahaj, Z and Alam, MM and Al-Amin, AQ}, title = {Climate change and COVID-19: shared challenges, divergent perspectives, and proposed collaborative solutions.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {11}, pages = {16739-16748}, pmid = {34989992}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {Pandemics leave their mark quickly. This is true for all pandemics, including COVID-19. Its multifarious presence has wreaked havoc on people's physical, economic, and social life since late 2019. Despite the need for social science to save lives, it is also critical to ensure future generations are protected. COVID-19 appeared as the world grappled with the epidemic of climate change. This study suggests policymakers and practitioners address climate change and COVID-19 together. This article offers a narrative review of both pandemics' impacts. Scopus and Web of Science were sought databases. The findings are reported analytically using important works of contemporary social theorists. The analysis focuses on three interconnected themes: technology advancements have harmed vulnerable people; pandemics have macro- and micro-dimensions; and structural disparities. To conclude, we believe that collaborative effort is the key to combating COVID-19 and climate change, while understanding the lessons learnt from the industrialised world. Finally, policymakers can decrease the impact of global catastrophes by addressing many socioeconomic concerns concurrently.}, }
@article {pmid34989860, year = {2022}, author = {Couet, J and Marjakangas, EL and Santangeli, A and Kålås, JA and Lindström, &#xc5; and Lehikoinen, A}, title = {Short-lived species move uphill faster under climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {198}, number = {4}, pages = {877-888}, pmid = {34989860}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {307909//Academy of Finland/ ; 323527//Academy of Finland/ ; 326338//Academy of Finland/ ; 2018-02441//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change is pushing species ranges and abundances towards the poles and mountain tops. Although many studies have documented local altitudinal shifts, knowledge of general patterns at a large spatial scale, such as a whole mountain range, is scarce. From a conservation perspective, studying altitudinal shifts in wildlife is relevant because mountain regions often represent biodiversity hotspots and are among the most vulnerable ecosystems. Here, we examine whether altitudinal shifts in birds' abundances have occurred in the Scandinavian mountains over 13 years, and assess whether such shifts are related to species' traits. Using abundance data, we show a clear pattern of uphill shift in the mean altitude of bird abundance across the Scandinavian mountains, with an average speed of 0.9 m per year. Out of 76 species, 7 shifted significantly their abundance uphill. Altitudinal shift was strongly related to species' longevity: short-lived species showed more pronounced uphill shifts in abundance than long-lived species. The observed abundance shifts suggest that uphill shifts are not only driven by a small number of individuals at the range boundaries, but the overall bird abundances are on the move. Overall, the results underscore the wide-ranging impact of climate change and the potential vulnerability of species with slow life histories, as they appear less able to timely respond to rapidly changing climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid34989542, year = {2022}, author = {Wan, XN and Zhao, KY and Wu, XW and Bai, H and Yang, XY and Gu, JX}, title = {[Effects of Stalk Incorporation on Soil Carbon Sequestration, Nitrous Oxide Emissions, and Global Warming Potential of a Winter Wheat-Summer Maize Field in Guanzhong Plain].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {43}, number = {1}, pages = {569-576}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.202105185}, pmid = {34989542}, issn = {0250-3301}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon ; Carbon Sequestration ; China ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Global Warming ; *Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Seasons ; *Soil ; Triticum ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {The net greenhouse gas emissions from upland soils, as indicated by global warming potential (GWP), mainly depend on the soil carbon sequestration and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. The annual changes in surface (0-20 cm) soil organic carbon (SOC) content from 2010 to 2017 and the N2O emissions from 2014 to 2017 were measured within a long-term fertilization experiment. The objective was to quantify the effect of stalk incorporation on the soil carbon sequestration, annual N2O emissions, and GWP of a winter wheat-summer maize field in the Guanzhong Plain. The field experiment included three treatments:conventional fertilization (CF), conventional fertilization plus maize stalks (CFS), and an unfertilized control (CK). The CF and CFS treatments received the same amount of urea per year, with nitrogen (N) input at 165 kg·hm[-2] and 188 kg·hm[-2] in the winter wheat season and summer maize season, respectively. The CF treatment retained the stubbles (about 10 cm above ground) when harvesting the winter wheat and summer maize crops. The CFS treatment retained the same wheat stubbles and all maize stalks (containing approximately 40 kg·hm[-2] of N). The CK treatment was unfertilized throughout the year, with the stubble management the same as that in the CF treatment. The results showed that the CK treatment displayed few changes in SOC content and low N2O emissions, with GWP varying from 0.04 to 0.11 t·(hm[2]·a)[-1]. The SOC contents in the CF and CFS treatments increased linearly with the fertilization years (P<0.001), and their SOC sequestration rates were 0.69 t·(hm[2]·a)[-1] and 0.97 t·(hm[2]·a)[-1], respectively. The N2O emissions from the CF and CFS treatments varied from 1.65 to 5.36 kg·(hm[2]·a)[-1] and from 3.08 to 7.73 kg·(hm[2]·a)[-1], respectively. The annual N2O emissions from the CFS treatment were 43%-94% higher than those from the CF treatment, whereas the difference was only significant between 2015 and 2016 (P<0.05). The GWP of the CF and CFS treatments varied from -1.95 to -0.28 t·(hm[2]·a)[-1] and from -2.59 to -0.35 t·(hm[2]·a)[-1], respectively. The cumulative GWP of the CFS treatment was 42% lower than that of the CF treatment between 2014 and 2017. In summary, the studied winter wheat-summer maize field acted as a sink of greenhouse gases under the conventional fertilization regime. The stalk incorporation further favored greenhouse gas mitigation despite the trade-offs between SOC sequestration and N2O emissions.}, }
@article {pmid34989262, year = {2022}, author = {Lebel, L and Paquin, V and Kenny, TA and Fletcher, C and Nadeau, L and Chachamovich, E and Lemire, M}, title = {Climate change and Indigenous mental health in the Circumpolar North: A systematic review to inform clinical practice.}, journal = {Transcultural psychiatry}, volume = {59}, number = {3}, pages = {312-336}, pmid = {34989262}, issn = {1461-7471}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is disproportionally impacting the Circumpolar North, with particular impacts among Indigenous populations. Environmental changes are felt in many aspects of daily life of Northern communities, including both physical and mental health. Thus, health institutions from around the Arctic must meet emerging needs, while the phenomenon remains marginal to their southern counterparts. In this systematic review, we aimed to review current scientific knowledge on the mental health impacts of climate change in Indigenous Peoples across the Circumpolar North. Seven databases were searched. Original peer-reviewed research articles were included if they addressed links between climate change and mental health in Arctic or Subarctic Indigenous Populations. After extraction, data were synthesized using thematic analysis. Of the 26 articles that met inclusion criteria, 16 focused on Canadian Inuit communities and 21 were exclusively qualitative. Being on the land was identified as a central determinant of wellbeing. Immediate impacts of climate change on mental health were felt through restricted mobility and disrupted livelihoods. Effects on mental health were further felt through changes in culture and identity, food insecurity, interpersonal stress and conflicts, and housing problems. Various ways in how communities and individuals are coping with these effects were reported. Understanding climate-related pathways of mental health risks in the Arctic is crucial to better identify vulnerable groups and to foster resilience. Clinicians can play a role in recognizing and providing support for patients affected by these disruptions. Policies sensitive to the climate-mental health relationship must be advocated for.}, }
@article {pmid34987218, year = {2022}, author = {}, title = {How researchers can help fight climate change in 2022 and beyond.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {601}, number = {7891}, pages = {7}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-03817-4}, pmid = {34987218}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Congresses as Topic ; Environmental Policy/*trends ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; *International Cooperation ; *Policy Making ; *Research Personnel ; Scotland ; }, }
@article {pmid34986669, year = {2022}, author = {Brown, MJ and Forster, BB}, title = {Climate Change: How Radiologists can Help.}, journal = {Canadian Association of Radiologists journal = Journal l'Association canadienne des radiologistes}, volume = {73}, number = {3}, pages = {456-457}, doi = {10.1177/08465371211064217}, pmid = {34986669}, issn = {1488-2361}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Radiologists ; }, }
@article {pmid34986372, year = {2022}, author = {Monsour, M and Clarke-Rubright, E and Lieberman-Cribbin, W and Timmins, C and Taioli, E and Schwartz, RM and Corley, SS and Laucis, AM and Morey, RA}, title = {The impact of climate change on the prevalence of mental illness symptoms.}, journal = {Journal of affective disorders}, volume = {300}, number = {}, pages = {430-440}, doi = {10.1016/j.jad.2021.12.124}, pmid = {34986372}, issn = {1573-2517}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; *Depressive Disorder, Major/epidemiology/etiology ; Floods ; Humans ; Prevalence ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The repercussions of climate change threaten the population with an increased prevalence of extreme climate events. We explored the impact of climate change induced sea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclone (TC) exposure on mental illness symptom prevalence.<br><br>METHODS: Using three datasets, TC exposure scores were calculated for each subject to determine how exposure affects posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and major depressive disorder (MDD) symptom prevalence. Inundation mapping of various SLR and storm surge (SS) scenarios were performed for the susceptible region of Miami-Dade and Broward counties to determine the population impact of flooding.<br><br>RESULTS: We found an elevated risk of mental illness symptoms from exposure to more high- intensity TCs and identified demographic variables that may contribute to this risk. Furthermore, inundation mapping demonstrated severe and widespread impact of SLR and SS on the mental health of communities.<br><br>LIMITATIONS: This study did not include data directly measuring comorbidity, resilience, preparedness, or ability to adapt to climate change. Also, multiple imputation using chained equations may have been imperfect. Furthermore, there is uncertainty in predicting and mapping SLR and TC intensity, which limits complete confidence in our SS predictions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The impacts of climate change have been frequently studied in terms of physical health, natural disaster prevalence, and economic impacts, but rarely on mental health burden. However, it is vital that national, state, and local governments develop and deploy plans to address mental health needs along with expenditures for protecting infrastructure, the economy, and physical health from the combined effects of SLR and climate change-induced natural disasters.}, }
@article {pmid34983877, year = {2022}, author = {Li, BV and Jenkins, CN and Xu, W}, title = {Strategic protection of landslide vulnerable mountains for biodiversity conservation under land-cover and climate change impacts.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {119}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {34983877}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Disasters ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Humans ; *Landslides ; Mammals ; Population Density ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Natural disasters impose huge uncertainty and loss to human lives and economic activities. Landslides are one disaster that has become more prevalent because of anthropogenic disturbances, such as land-cover changes, land degradation, and expansion of infrastructure. These are further exacerbated by more extreme precipitation due to climate change, which is predicted to trigger more landslides and threaten sustainable development in vulnerable regions. Although biodiversity conservation and development are often regarded as having a trade-off relationship, here we present a global analysis of the area with co-benefits, where conservation through expanding protection and reducing deforestation can not only benefit biodiversity but also reduce landslide risks to human society. High overlap exists between landslide susceptibility and areas of endemism for mammals, birds, and amphibians, which are mostly concentrated in mountain regions. We identified 247 mountain ranges as areas with high vulnerability, having both exceptional biodiversity and landslide risks, accounting for 25.8% of the global mountainous areas. Another 31 biodiverse mountains are classified as future vulnerable mountains as they face increasing landslide risks because of predicted climate change and deforestation. None of these 278 mountains reach the Aichi Target 11 of 17% coverage by protected areas. Of the 278 mountains, 52 need immediate actions because of high vulnerability, severe threats from future deforestation and precipitation extremes, low protection, and high-population density and anthropogenic activities. These actions include protected area expansion, forest conservation, and restoration where it could be a cost-effective way to reduce the risks of landslides.}, }
@article {pmid34981356, year = {2022}, author = {Ghosh, AK and Shapiro, MF and Abramson, DM}, title = {Trends in National Institutes of Health Funding on the Health-Related Effects of Climate Change and Natural Disasters.}, journal = {Journal of general internal medicine}, volume = {37}, number = {11}, pages = {2885-2887}, pmid = {34981356}, issn = {1525-1497}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Disaster Planning ; Humans ; National Institutes of Health (U.S.) ; *Natural Disasters ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid34980932, year = {2021}, author = {Paz, S and Majeed, A and Christophides, GK}, title = {Climate change impacts on infectious diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME)-risks and recommendations.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {169}, number = {3-4}, pages = {40}, pmid = {34980932}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region has rapid population growth, large differences in socio-economic levels between developed and developing countries, migration, increased water demand, and ecosystems degradation. The region is experiencing a significant warming trend with longer and warmer summers, increased frequency and severity of heat waves, and a drier climate. While climate change plays an important role in contributing to political instability in the region through displacement of people, food insecurity, and increased violence, it also increases the risks of vector-, water-, and food-borne diseases. Poorer and less educated people, young children and the elderly, migrants, and those with long-term health problems are at highest risk. A result of the inequalities among EMME countries is an inconsistency in the availability of reliable evidence about the impacts on infectious diseases. To help address this gap, a search of the literature was conducted as a basis for related recommended responses and suggested actions for preparedness and prevention. Since climate change already impacts the health of vulnerable populations in the EMME and will have a greater impact in future years, risk assessment and timely design and implementation of health preparedness and adaptation strategies are essential. Joint national and cross-border infectious diseases management systems for more effective preparedness and prevention are needed, supported by interventions that improve the environment. Without such cooperation and effective interventions, climate change will lead to an increasing morbidity and mortality in the EMME from infectious diseases, with a higher risk for the most vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid34980187, year = {2022}, author = {Kulkarni, MA and Duguay, C and Ost, K}, title = {Charting the evidence for climate change impacts on the global spread of malaria and dengue and adaptive responses: a scoping review of reviews.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, pmid = {34980187}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to alter the global footprint of many infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue. Knowledge of the range and geographical context of expected climate change impacts on disease transmission and spread, combined with knowledge of effective adaptation strategies and responses, can help to identify gaps and best practices to mitigate future health impacts. To investigate the types of evidence for impacts of climate change on two major mosquito-borne diseases of global health importance, malaria and dengue, and to identify the range of relevant policy responses and adaptation strategies that have been devised, we performed a scoping review of published review literature. Three electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus and Epistemonikos) were systematically searched for relevant published reviews. Inclusion criteria were: reviews with a systematic search, from 2007 to 2020, in English or French, that addressed climate change impacts and/or adaptation strategies related to malaria and/or dengue. Data extracted included: characteristics of the article, type of review, disease(s) of focus, geographic focus, and nature of the evidence. The evidence was summarized to identify and compare regional evidence for climate change impacts and adaptation measures.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 32 reviews met the inclusion criteria. Evidence for the impacts of climate change (including climate variability) on dengue was greatest in the Southeast Asian region, while evidence for the impacts of climate change on malaria was greatest in the African region, particularly in highland areas. Few reviews explicitly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies to address climate change-driven disease transmission, however suggested strategies included enhanced surveillance, early warning systems, predictive models and enhanced vector control.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is strong evidence for the impacts of climate change, including climate variability, on the transmission and future spread of malaria and dengue, two of the most globally important vector-borne diseases. Further efforts are needed to develop multi-sectoral climate change adaptation strategies to enhance the capacity and resilience of health systems and communities, especially in regions with predicted climatic suitability for future emergence and re-emergence of malaria and dengue. This scoping review may serve as a useful precursor to inform future systematic reviews of the primary literature.}, }
@article {pmid34979200, year = {2022}, author = {Neogi, S and Sharma, V and Khan, N and Chaurasia, D and Ahmad, A and Chauhan, S and Singh, A and You, S and Pandey, A and Bhargava, PC}, title = {Sustainable biochar: A facile strategy for soil and environmental restoration, energy generation, mitigation of global climate change and circular bioeconomy.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {293}, number = {}, pages = {133474}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.133474}, pmid = {34979200}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Charcoal/chemistry ; Climate Change ; *Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; Humans ; *Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {The increasing agro-demands with the burgeoning population lead to the accumulation of lignocellulosic residues. The practice of burning agri-residues has consequences viz. Release of soot and smoke, nutrient depletion, loss of soil microbial diversity, air pollution and hazardous effects on human health. The utilization of agricultural waste as biomass to synthesize biochar and biofuels, is the pertinent approach for attaining sustainable development goals. Biochar contributes in the improvement of soil properties, carbon sequestration, reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) emission, removal of organic and heavy metal pollutants, production of biofuels, synthesis of useful chemicals and building cementitious materials. The biochar characteristics including surface area, porosity and functional groups vary with the type of biomass consumed in pyrolysis and the control of parameters during the process. The major adsorption mechanisms of biochar involve physical-adsorption, ion-exchange interactions, electrostatic attraction, surface complexation and precipitation. The recent trend of engineered biochar can enhance its surface properties, pH buffering capacity and presence of desired functional groups. This review focuses on the contribution of biochar in attaining sustainable development goals. Hence, it provides a thorough understanding of biochar's importance in enhancing soil productivity, bioremediation of environmental pollutants, carbon negative concretes, mitigation of climate change and generation of bioenergy that amplifies circular bioeconomy, and concomitantly facilitates the fulfilment of the United Nation Sustainable Development Goals. The application of biochar as seen is primarily targeting four important SDGs including clean water and sanitation (SGD6), affordable and clean energy (SDG7), responsible consumption and production (SDG12) and climate action (SDG13).}, }
@article {pmid34978367, year = {2022}, author = {Flanagan, C}, title = {Commentary: Proactive practices to support youth coping with climate change - a commentary on Martin et al. (2021).}, journal = {Child and adolescent mental health}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {94-95}, doi = {10.1111/camh.12538}, pmid = {34978367}, issn = {1475-357X}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Anxiety ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Peer Group ; }, abstract = {Based on the scoping review of literature on youths' anxieties and worries associated with their understanding of climate change, I suggest three practices for supporting youth coping: emphasizing what they can do through proactive environmental action; emphasizing group rather than individual efforts - working in peer teams and networking with adults and organizations dedicated to environmental action and to combatting climate change; and focusing on human impact (negative and positive) in the local place where they reside and ways they can observe and monitor that impact.}, }
@article {pmid34973415, year = {2022}, author = {Grobusch, LC and Grobusch, MP}, title = {A hot topic at the environment-health nexus: investigating the impact of climate change on infectious diseases.}, journal = {International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases}, volume = {116}, number = {}, pages = {7-9}, pmid = {34973415}, issn = {1878-3511}, mesh = {*COVID-19/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; Humans ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {COVID-19 pandemic aside, climate change is the ultimate challenge of our time. However, to date, there has been insufficient political thrust to make that much-needed climate action a reality.<br><br>Infectious diseases represent only one facet of the threats arising from climate change. Direct impacts from climate change include the more frequent occurrence and increased magnitude of extreme weather events, as well as changing temperatures and precipitation patterns. For climate-sensitive infectious diseases, these changes implicate a shift in geographical and temporal distribution, seasonality, and transmission intensity.<br><br>SIZING UP THE PROBLEM: Susceptibility to the deleterious effects of climate change is a net result of the interplay of not only environmental factors, but also human, societal, and economic factors, with social inequalities being a major determinant of vulnerability. The global South is already disproportionately affected by the climate crisis. The financial capacity to pursue adaptation options is also limited and unevenly distributed.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change-induced mortality and morbidity from both infectious and non-infectious diseases, among other adverse scenarios, are expected to rise globally in the future. The coming decade will be crucial for using all remaining opportunities to develop and implement adequate mitigation and adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid34972798, year = {2022}, author = {Blunden, C}, title = {Pandemics, climate change, and antibiotic resistance.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {72}, number = {714}, pages = {26-27}, pmid = {34972798}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {*COVID-19/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Drug Resistance, Microbial ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; }, }
@article {pmid34972244, year = {2022}, author = {Mathias, JM and Trugman, AT}, title = {Climate change impacts plant carbon balance, increasing mean future carbon use efficiency but decreasing total forest extent at dry range edges.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {498-508}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13945}, pmid = {34972244}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {2018-67012-31496//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; LFR-20-652-467//UC Laboratory Fees Research Program/ ; 2003205//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; }, mesh = {*Carbon ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Plants ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Carbon use efficiency (CUE) represents how efficient a plant is at translating carbon gains through gross primary productivity (GPP) into net primary productivity (NPP) after respiratory costs (Ra). CUE varies across space with climate and species composition, but how CUE will respond to climate change is largely unknown due to uncertainty in Ra at novel high temperatures. We use a plant physiological model validated against global CUE observations and LIDAR vegetation canopy height data and find that model-predicted decreases in CUE are diagnostic of transitions from forests to shrubland at dry range edges. Under future climate scenarios, we show mean growing season CUE increases in core forested areas, but forest extent decreases at dry range edges, with substantial uncertainty in absolute CUE due to uncertainty in Ra . Our results highlight that future forest resilience is nuanced and controlled by multiple competing mechanisms.}, }
@article {pmid34972110, year = {2021}, author = {Ali, H and Din, JU and Bosso, L and Hameed, S and Kabir, M and Younas, M and Nawaz, MA}, title = {Expanding or shrinking? range shifts in wild ungulates under climate change in Pamir-Karakoram mountains, Pakistan.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {12}, pages = {e0260031}, pmid = {34972110}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Goats/*physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Pakistan ; Sheep/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to impact a large number of organisms in many ecosystems, including several threatened mammals. A better understanding of climate impacts on species can make conservation efforts more effective. The Himalayan ibex (Capra ibex sibirica) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) are economically important wild ungulates in northern Pakistan because they are sought-after hunting trophies. However, both species are threatened due to several human-induced factors, and these factors are expected to aggravate under changing climate in the High Himalayas. In this study, we investigated populations of ibex and blue sheep in the Pamir-Karakoram mountains in order to (i) update and validate their geographical distributions through empirical data; (ii) understand range shifts under climate change scenarios; and (iii) predict future habitats to aid long-term conservation planning. Presence records of target species were collected through camera trapping and sightings in the field. We constructed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model on presence record and six key climatic variables to predict the current and future distributions of ibex and blue sheep. Two representative concentration pathways (4.5 and 8.5) and two-time projections (2050 and 2070) were used for future range predictions. Our results indicated that ca. 37% and 9% of the total study area (Gilgit-Baltistan) was suitable under current climatic conditions for Himalayan ibex and blue sheep, respectively. Annual mean precipitation was a key determinant of suitable habitat for both ungulate species. Under changing climate scenarios, both species will lose a significant part of their habitats, particularly in the Himalayan and Hindu Kush ranges. The Pamir-Karakoram ranges will serve as climate refugia for both species. This area shall remain focus of future conservation efforts to protect Pakistan's mountain ungulates.}, }
@article {pmid34971339, year = {2022}, author = {Chinthrajah, S and Garcia, E and Hasan, Z and Hy, A and Wong, L}, title = {Climate Change Health Effects and What You Can Do.}, journal = {American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine}, volume = {205}, number = {1}, pages = {P1-P2}, doi = {10.1164/rccm.2051P1}, pmid = {34971339}, issn = {1535-4970}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; Environment, Controlled ; *Environmental Health ; Health Status Disparities ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Infections/etiology ; Respiratory Hypersensitivity/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid34970760, year = {2022}, author = {Barkin, JL and Curry, CL and Goss, L}, title = {That is one important wrapper: Mental health considerations related to climate change in the perinatal period.}, journal = {Perspectives in psychiatric care}, volume = {58}, number = {1}, pages = {7-8}, doi = {10.1111/ppc.13019}, pmid = {34970760}, issn = {1744-6163}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Parturition ; Pregnancy ; }, }
@article {pmid34968841, year = {2022}, author = {Alfonso, B and Sansón, M and Sangil, C and Expósito, FJ and Díaz, JP and Hernández, JC}, title = {Herbarium macroalgae specimens reveal a rapid reduction of thallus size and reproductive effort related with climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {105546}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105546}, pmid = {34968841}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Rhodophyta ; *Seaweed ; Temperature ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Understanding and forecasting the effects of climate changes on vulnerable species are leading concerns for ecologists and conservation biologists. Herbaria are invaluable for use in long-term data series, and one of the few available methods for quantifying biodiversity changes over large periods of time. Gelidium canariense is an endemic and habitat-forming macroalga of the Canary Islands that coexists with two other habitat-forming Gelidiales: G. arbuscula and Pterocladiella capillacea. This study assesses long-term changes in thallus size and reproductive effort of all specimens deposited in the Herbarium of Universidad de La Laguna of these three Gelidiales species. Also assessed were the effects of seawater temperature and increased incident light on net primary production (NPP), and the effects of extreme desiccation conditions on the relative water content and NPP of the three Gelidiales species. The length of the thallus of the endemic species G. canariense was halved during the past 40 years. The shortening of the thallus coincided with a significant decrease in the number of reproductive structures in both Gelidium species. These morphological changes coincide with a significant increase of the sea surface temperature, air temperature above sea surface and ultraviolet radiation in the studied area. The experiments have revealed the deleterious effects of extreme desiccation and extreme irradiance on all three species. Hence, these results suggest that air temperature and irradiance are related with these morphological changes over time in the habitat-forming Gelidium species and that are most likely compromising the survival of their populations which are already declining.}, }
@article {pmid34968592, year = {2022}, author = {Guo, B and Wei, C and Yu, Y and Liu, Y and Li, J and Meng, C and Cai, Y}, title = {The dominant influencing factors of desertification changes in the source region of Yellow River: Climate change or human activity?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {813}, number = {}, pages = {152512}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152512}, pmid = {34968592}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Anthropogenic Effects ; China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Desert Climate ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Due to the combined effects of global warming and human activities, the ecological environment of the Yellow River source area has undergone profound changes and desertification has become increasingly prominent. In this study, an optimal desertification monitoring index based on feature space was proposed for the Yellow River source area, and constructed using Landsat images. Then, the spatial and temporal variation of desertification in the Yellow River source area and its driving mechanism were studied using Geodetector. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The newly proposed feature space-based desertification monitoring index has good applicability in the study area. The best inversion accuracy of the point-to-point Albedo-NDVI feature space model was 88.4%. (2) Desertification in the eastern and southern regions of the Yellow River source area has a tendency to increase, while the desertification situation in the central region is relatively stable. (3) From 1995 to 2015, there was a significant improvement in desertification in the study area, as evidenced by a decrease in desertification intensity. (4) As the intensity of human disturbance increases, the influence of natural factors on desertification gradually diminishes. The interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors has greater explanatory power for desertification than that of individual natural or anthropogenic factors. The research results can be used as a reference for decision-making on desertification control in the Three-River Source Region.}, }
@article {pmid34967684, year = {2022}, author = {Taylor-Cornejo, E}, title = {Empowering Undergraduates to Fight Climate Change with Soil Microbes.}, journal = {DNA and cell biology}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {58-63}, pmid = {34967684}, issn = {1557-7430}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {The burning of fossil fuels to meet a growing demand for energy has created a climate crisis that threatens Earth's fragile ecosystems. While most undergraduate students are familiar with solar and wind energy as sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels, many are not aware of a climate solution right beneath their feet-soil-dwelling microbes! Microbial fuel cells (MFCs) harness energy from the metabolic activity of microbes in the soil to generate electricity. Recently, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic transformed the traditional microbiology teaching laboratory into take-home laboratory kits and online modes of delivery, which could accommodate distance learning. This laboratory exercise combined both virtual laboratory simulations and a commercially available MFC kit to challenge undergraduate students to apply fundamental principles in microbiology to real-world climate solutions.}, }
@article {pmid34966231, year = {2021}, author = {Viveros-Uehara, T}, title = {Health Care in a Changing Climate: A Review of Climate Change Laws and National Adaptation Plans in Latin America.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {139-151}, pmid = {34966231}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; Latin America ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Given that the health-related impacts of climate change in Latin America disproportionately affect the most marginalized sections of the population, there is a need to enhance countries' adaptive capacity through improved health systems. Though public health institutions have delineated guidelines to enhance health care systems' preparedness for climate change, embedding a human rights perspective in their translation into laws and policies further adds important value. Crucially, a rights-based approach strengthens health responses to climate change by calling attention to how climate law and policy fail to account for persistent and interlocking socioeconomic inequalities. This is an area that has not been fully present in the provision of health services in Latin America, which rely almost exclusively on a conventional epidemiological perspective and do not consider the historical and sociocultural nature of health challenges. Hence, this paper draws on two case studies-Brazil and Colombia-to identify the extent to which their national climate change laws and adaptation plans incorporate a human rights-based approach in their tasks to enhance their adaptive capacity through the expansion of affordable and quality health care. With respect to the countries' laws, the absence of explicit references to the right to health exemplifies the fragmentation between the international human rights framework and international climate change law. Further, both countries' adaptation plans hold considerable room for improving their engagement with the human rights framework, particularly by establishing mechanisms to promote transparency, monitoring, and the participation of marginalized groups.}, }
@article {pmid34966230, year = {2021}, author = {Wu, CF}, title = {Challenges to Protecting the Right to Health under the Climate Change Regime.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {121-138}, pmid = {34966230}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {Anthropogenic Effects ; *Climate Change ; Human Rights ; Humans ; *Right to Health ; }, abstract = {Researchers and global policy makers are increasingly documenting negative health impacts from climate change, raising concerns for realizing the right to health. Importantly, courts have held that anthropogenic activities affecting climate may threaten a population's standard of health and compromise its inviolable right to health. However, legal hurdles-such as the fragmentation of climate change and human rights laws and the difficulties in proving causal links-hamper efforts to litigate right to health claims in the context of climate change. To address these challenges, this article assesses the detrimental effects of climate change from an international human rights perspective and analyzes climate change litigation to explore potential avenues to press for the right to health in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34966228, year = {2021}, author = {Gasparri, G and Omrani, OE and Hinton, R and Imbago, D and Lakhani, H and Mohan, A and Yeung, W and Bustreo, F}, title = {Children, Adolescents, and Youth Pioneering a Human Rights-Based Approach to Climate Change.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {95-108}, pmid = {34966228}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; *Climate Change ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; Social Justice ; Social Responsibility ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest challenge of our century. Children, adolescents, and youth will bear the most severe impacts, physically, socially, economically, and psychologically. In response to this immense threat and to the failure of international climate negotiations to date, young people are taking to the streets and using global fora to call for climate justice. While these protests have received much attention, there has been limited examination of these and other youth-led efforts through the lens of a human rights-based approach and its operational principles: participation, equality and nondiscrimination, accountability, and transparency. This paper draws from academic and gray literature, as well as the authors' experience as practitioners and young activists, to argue that young people, by promoting human rights-based operational principles at the international, national, and local levels, are pioneering a human rights-based approach to climate change. The paper concludes by suggesting how policy makers can support and empower young people to advance an explicit human rights-based agenda, while concurrently translating human rights-based operational principles into climate change policies and practice.}, }
@article {pmid34963583, year = {2022}, author = {Ni, B and Zhao, W and Zuo, X and You, J and Li, Y and Li, J and Du, Y and Chen, X}, title = {Deyeuxia angustifolia Kom. encroachment changes soil physicochemical properties and microbial community in the alpine tundra under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {813}, number = {}, pages = {152615}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152615}, pmid = {34963583}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Microbiota ; *Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; Tundra ; }, abstract = {Plant encroachment in alpine regions, caused by global changes and human activities, has been well documented. However, our knowledge of the effects of plant encroachment on belowground microbial communities is limited. Here, we investigated soil physicochemical properties and microbial community structures under the impact of plant encroachment along an elevation gradient in the alpine tundra of the Changbai Mountain, China. We found that plant encroachment had insignificant (P > 0.05) and inconsistent effects on the α-diversity (number of observed OTUs, Shannon, Chao1, Faith's PD) of soil microbial communities. Plant encroachment indirectly influenced soil microbial community structures by altering soil physicochemical properties, which differed between elevations and plant types (P < 0.05). In all, 40 bacterial indicator taxa and 57 fungal indicator taxa significantly shifted in response to plant encroachment, some of which were involved in soil biogeochemical cycle. Overall, our results documented the impacts of plant encroachment on soil microbial diversity and community composition, and provided a scientific basis for predicting future changes in alpine ecosystem structure and function and its subsequent feedbacks to global change.}, }
@article {pmid34961117, year = {2021}, author = {Agüera, E and de la Haba, P}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Sunflower (Helianthus annus L.) Plants.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {34961117}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {The biochemical, biological, and morphogenetic processes of plants are affected by ongoing climate change, causing alterations in crop development, growth, and productivity. Climate change is currently producing ecosystem modifications, making it essential to study plants with an improved adaptive capacity in the face of environmental modifications. This work examines the physiological and metabolic changes taking place during the development of sunflower plants due to environmental modifications resulting from climate change: elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and increased temperatures. Variations in growth, and carbon and nitrogen metabolism, as well as their effect on the plant's oxidative state in sunflower (Helianthus annus L.) plants, are studied. An understanding of the effect of these interacting factors (elevated CO2 and elevated temperatures) on plant development and stress response is imperative to understand the impact of climate change on plant productivity.}, }
@article {pmid34957147, year = {2021}, author = {Gupta, S and Rouse, BT and Sarangi, PP}, title = {Did Climate Change Influence the Emergence, Transmission, and Expression of the COVID-19 Pandemic?.}, journal = {Frontiers in medicine}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {769208}, pmid = {34957147}, issn = {2296-858X}, support = {R01 EY005093/EY/NEI NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {The human race has survived many epidemics and pandemics that have emerged and reemerged throughout history. The novel coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 is the latest pandemic and this has caused major health and socioeconomic problems in almost all communities of the world. The origin of the virus is still in dispute but most likely, the virus emerged from the bats and also may involve an intermediate host before affecting humans. Several other factors also may have affected the emergence and outcome of the infection but in this review, we make a case for a possible role of climate change. The rise in industrialization-related human activities has created a marked imbalance in the homeostasis of environmental factors such as temperature and other weather and these might even have imposed conditions for the emergence of future coronavirus cycles. An attempt is made in this review to explore the effect of ongoing climate changes and discuss if these changes had a role in facilitating the emergence, transmission, and even the expression of the COVID-19 pandemic. We surmise that pandemics will be more frequent in the future and more severely impactful unless climate changes are mitigated.}, }
@article {pmid34956740, year = {2021}, author = {Albà, CG and Alkhatib, III and Llovell, F and Vega, LF}, title = {Assessment of Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants for Drop-In Replacement by Connecting their Molecular Features to Their Performance.}, journal = {ACS sustainable chemistry &amp; engineering}, volume = {9}, number = {50}, pages = {17034-17048}, pmid = {34956740}, issn = {2168-0485}, abstract = {The use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as an alternative for refrigeration units has grown over the past decades as a replacement to chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), banned by the Montreal's Protocol because of their effect on the depletion of the ozone layer. However, HFCs are known to be greenhouse gases with considerable global warming potential (GWP), thousands of times higher than carbon dioxide. The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol has promoted an active area of research toward the development of low GWP refrigerants to replace the ones in current use, and it is expected to significantly contribute to the Paris Agreement by avoiding nearly half a degree Celsius of temperature increase by the end of this century. We present here a molecular-based evaluation tool aiming at finding optimal refrigerants with the requirements imposed by current environmental legislations in order to mitigate their impact on climate change. The proposed approach relies on the robust polar soft-SAFT equation of state to predict thermodynamic properties required for their technical evaluation at conditions relevant for cooling applications. Additionally, the thermodynamic model integrated with technical criteria enable the search for compatibility of currently used third generation compounds with more eco-friendly refrigerants as drop-in replacements. The criteria include volumetric cooling capacity, coefficient of performance, and other physicochemical properties with direct impact on the technical performance of the cooling cycle. As such, R1123, R1224yd(Z), R1234ze(E), and R1225ye(Z) demonstrate high aptitude toward replacing R134a, R32, R152a, and R245fa with minimal retrofitting to the existing system. The current modeling platform for the rapid screening of emerging refrigerants offers a guide for future efforts on the design of alternative working fluids.}, }
@article {pmid34956552, year = {2021}, author = {Ngxongo, NA}, title = {The impact of climate change on visitor destination selection: A case study of the Central Drakensberg Region in KwaZulu-Natal.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1161}, pmid = {34956552}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Many variables influence visitors' destination choices, for example, affordability, attractions, health and safety, and expectancies. Amongst the indirect influences in destination choice by tourists, climate change is perhaps the greatest factor because of its negative impact on the ecological landscape of tourist destinations. Using the Central Drakensberg Region (CDR) as a case study, this article seeks to investigate the influence of climate change on visitors' destination choices. A quantitative descriptive survey was conducted on a sample of n347 participants who were selected using purposive and convenience sampling procedures under the auspices of non-probability. The statistical analyses were performed using the latest edition of the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (Version 25.0). Based on the study's results, climate change was found to be a key influence on tourists' decision-making, behaviour and spending habits at tourist destination like the Central Drakensberg Area. The most significant climatic parameter for tourists was determined to be pleasant and warm temperatures, as well as the summer season. Furthermore, owing to the current climate change circumstances, visitors were found to be less likely to return or recommend future visits to the region. To that end, tourism officials in the CDR should swiftly implement adaptation measures to counter the effects, and explore alternatives such as soft tourism and non-climate-dependent activities to accommodate visitors year-around. Further research is recommended to establish the extent to which socio-demographic characteristics influence destination choice in the area, as well as to ascertain the current state of climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid35664975, year = {2021}, author = {Butt, E}, title = {What can Mohs surgery do to help climate change?.}, journal = {Skin health and disease}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {e26}, pmid = {35664975}, issn = {2690-442X}, }
@article {pmid35865618, year = {2021}, author = {Lochbihler, K and Lenderink, G and Siebesma, AP}, title = {Cold Pool Dynamics Shape the Response of Extreme Rainfall Events to Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of advances in modeling earth systems}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {e2020MS002306}, pmid = {35865618}, issn = {1942-2466}, abstract = {There is increasing evidence that local rainfall extremes can increase with warming at a higher rate than expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. The exact mechanisms behind this super-CC scaling phenomenon are still unsolved. Recent studies highlight invigorated local dynamics as a contributor to enhanced precipitation rates with warming. Here, cold pools play an important role in the process of organization and deepening of convective clouds. Another known effect of cold pools is the amplification of low-level moisture variability. Yet, how these processes respond to climatic warming and how they relate to enhanced precipitation rates remains largely unanswered. Unlike other studies which use rather simple approaches mimicking climate change, we present a much more comprehensive set of experiments using a high-resolution large eddy simulation (LES) model. We use an idealized but realistically forced case setup, representative for conditions with extreme summer precipitation in midlatitudes. Based on that, we examine how a warmer atmosphere under the assumption of constant and varying relative humidity, lapse rate changes and enhanced large-scale dynamics influence precipitation rates, cold pool dynamics, and the low-level moisture field. Warmer conditions generally lead to larger and more intense events, accompanied by enhanced cold pool dynamics and a concurring moisture accumulation in confined regions. The latter are known as preferred locations for new convective events. Our results show that cold pool dynamics play an increasingly important role in shaping the response of local precipitation extremes to global warming, providing a potential mechanism for super-CC behavior as subject for future research.}, }
@article {pmid35425913, year = {2021}, author = {Sitati, A and Joe, E and Pentz, B and Grayson, C and Jaime, C and Gilmore, E and Galappaththi, E and Hudson, A and Alverio, GN and Mach, KJ and van Aalst, M and Simpson, N and Schwerdtle, PN and Templeman, S and Zommers, Z and Ajibade, I and Chalkasra, LSS and Umunay, P and Togola, I and Khouzam, A and Scarpa, G and ,  and de Perez, EC}, title = {Climate change adaptation in conflict-affected countries: A systematic assessment of evidence.}, journal = {Discover sustainability}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {42}, pmid = {35425913}, issn = {2662-9984}, abstract = {People affected by conflict are particularly vulnerable to climate shocks and climate change, yet little is known about climate change adaptation in fragile contexts. While climate events are one of the many contributing drivers of conflict, feedback from conflict increases vulnerability, thereby creating conditions for a vicious cycle of conflict. In this study, we carry out a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature, taking from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) dataset to documenting climate change adaptation occurring in 15 conflict-affected countries and compare the findings with records of climate adaptation finance flows and climate-related disasters in each country. Academic literature is sparse for most conflict-affected countries, and available studies tend to have a narrow focus, particularly on agriculture-related adaptation in rural contexts and adaptation by low-income actors. In contrast, multilateral and bilateral funding for climate change adaptation addresses a greater diversity of adaptation needs, including water systems, humanitarian programming, and urban areas. Even among the conflict-affected countries selected, we find disparity, with several countries being the focus of substantial research and funding, and others seeing little to none. Results indicate that people in conflict-affected contexts are adapting to climate change, but there is a pressing need for diverse scholarship across various sectors that documents a broader range of adaptation types and their results.}, }
@article {pmid35104838, year = {2021}, author = {Paz, S}, title = {Climate change impacts on vector-borne diseases in Europe: Risks, predictions and actions.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Europe}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {100017}, pmid = {35104838}, issn = {2666-7762}, }
@article {pmid35865730, year = {2020}, author = {Castán Broto, V and Westman, LK}, title = {Ten years after Copenhagen: Reimagining climate change governance in urban areas.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e643}, pmid = {35865730}, issn = {1757-7780}, abstract = {In this review, we take stock of the last decade of research on climate change governance in urban areas since the 2009 conference in Copenhagen. Using a systematic evaluation of academic publications in the field, we argue that the current moment of research has been shaped by two recent waves of thought. The first, a wave of urban optimism, which started in 2011 and peaked in 2013, engaged with urban areas as alternative sites for governance in the face of the crumbling international climate regime. The second, a wave of urban pragmatism, which started in 2016, has sought to reimagine urban areas following the integration of the "sub-national" as a meaningful category in the international climate regime after the 2015 Paris Agreement for Climate Action. Four themes dominate the debate on climate change governance in urban areas: why there is climate action, how climate action is delivered, how it is articulated in relation to internationally reaching networks, and what implications it has to understand environmental or climate justice within urban settings. Calls to understand the impacts of climate change policy have fostered research on climate change politics, issues of power and control, conflicts, and the inherently unjust nature of much climate policy. What is largely missing from the current scholarship is a sober assessment of the mundane aspects of climate change governance on the ground and a concern with what kind of cultural and socio-economic change is taking place, beyond comparative analyses of the effectiveness of climate policies. This article is categorized under: Policy and Governance > Governing Climate Change in Communities, Cities, and Regions.}, }
@article {pmid35859618, year = {2020}, author = {Hügel, S and Davies, AR}, title = {Public participation, engagement, and climate change adaptation: A review of the research literature.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e645}, pmid = {35859618}, issn = {1757-7780}, abstract = {There is a clear need for a state-of-the-art review of how public participation in climate change adaptation is being considered in research across academic communities: The Rio Declaration developed in 1992 at the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) included explicit goals of citizen participation and engagement in climate actions (Principle 10). Nation states were given special responsibility to facilitate these by ensuring access to information and opportunities to participate in decision-making processes. Since then the need for public participation has featured prominently in calls to climate action. Using text analysis to produce a corpus of abstracts drawn from Web of Science, a review of literature incorporating public participation and citizen engagement in climate change adaptation since 1992 reveals lexical, temporal, and spatial distribution dynamics of research on the topic. An exponential rise in research effort since the year 2000 is demonstrated, with the focus of research action on three substantial themes-risk, flood risk, and risk assessment, perception, and communication. These are critically reviewed and three substantive issues are considered: the paradox of participation, the challenge of governance transformation, and the need to incorporate psycho-social and behavioral adaptation to climate change in policy processes. Gaps in current research include a lack of common understanding of public participation for climate adaptation across disciplines; incomplete articulation of processes involving public participation and citizen engagement; and a paucity of empirical research examining how understanding and usage of influential concepts of risk, vulnerability and adaptive capacity varies among different disciplines and stakeholders. Finally, a provisional research agenda for attending to these gaps is described. This article is categorized under:Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for AdaptationPolicy and Governance > Governing Climate Change in Communities, Cities, and Regions.}, }
@article {pmid35860503, year = {2019}, author = {Kirchmeier-Young, MC and Gillett, NP and Zwiers, FW and Cannon, AJ and Anslow, FS}, title = {Attribution of the Influence of Human-Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {2-10}, pmid = {35860503}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {A record 1.2 million ha burned in British Columbia, Canada's extreme wildfire season of 2017. Key factors in this unprecedented event were the extreme warm and dry conditions that prevailed at the time, which are also reflected in extreme fire weather and behavior metrics. Using an event attribution method and a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations, we show that the risk factors affecting the event, and the area burned itself, were made substantially greater by anthropogenic climate change. We show over 95% of the probability for the observed maximum temperature anomalies is due to anthropogenic factors, that the event's high fire weather/behavior metrics were made 2-4 times more likely, and that anthropogenic climate change increased the area burned by a factor of 7-11. This profound influence of climate change on forest fire extremes in British Columbia, which is likely reflected in other regions and expected to intensify in the future, will require increasing attention in forest management, public health, and infrastructure.}, }
@article {pmid35633776, year = {2018}, author = {Dobor, L and Hlásny, T and Rammer, W and Barka, I and Trombik, J and Pavlenda, P and Šebeň, V and Štepánek, P and Seidl, R}, title = {Post-disturbance recovery of forest carbon in a temperate forest landscape under climate change.}, journal = {Agricultural and forest meteorology}, volume = {263}, number = {}, pages = {308-322}, pmid = {35633776}, issn = {0168-1923}, support = {Y 895/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, abstract = {Disturbances alter composition, structure, and functioning of forest ecosystems, and their legacies persist for decades to centuries. We investigated how temperate forest landscapes may recover their carbon (C) after severe wind and bark beetle disturbance, while being exposed to climate change. We used the forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to quantify (i) the recovery times of the total ecosystem C, (ii) the effect of climate change on C recovery, and (iii) the differential factors contributing to C recovery. We reconstructed a recent disturbance episode (2008-2016) based on Landsat satellite imagery, which affected 39% of the forest area in the 16,000 ha study landscape. We subsequently simulated forest recovery under a continuation of business-asusual management until 2100. Our results indicated that the recovery of the pre-disturbance C stocks (C payback time) was reached 17 years after the end of the disturbance episode. The C stocks of a theoretical undisturbed development trajectory were reached 30 years after the disturbance episode (C sequestration parity). Drier and warmer climates delayed simulated C recovery. Without the fertilizing effect of CO2, C payback times were delayed by 5-9 years, while C parity was not reached within the 21st century. Recovery was accelerated by an enhanced C uptake compared to undisturbed conditions (disturbance legacy sink effect) that persisted for 35 years after the disturbance episode. Future climate could have negative impacts on forest recovery and thus further amplify climate change through C loss from ecosystems, but the effect is strongly contingent on the magnitude and persistence of alleviating CO2 effects. Our modelling study highlights the need to consider both negative and positive effects of disturbance (i.e., C loss immediately after an event vs. enhanced C uptake of the recovering forest) in order to obtain a comprehensive understanding of disturbance effects on the forest C cycle.}, }
@article {pmid34991281, year = {2005}, author = {Donner, SD and Skirving, WJ and Little, CM and Oppenheimer, M and Hoegh-Guldberg, O}, title = {Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {2251-2265}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01073.x}, pmid = {34991281}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0°C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.}, }
@article {pmid35026932, year = {2000}, author = {Keyser, AR and Kimball, JS and Nemani, RR and Running, SW}, title = {Simulating the effects of climate change on the carbon balance of North American high-latitude forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {6}, number = {S1}, pages = {185-195}, pmid = {35026932}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {The large magnitude of predicted warming at high latitudes and the potential feedback of ecosystems to atmospheric CO2 concentrations make it important to quantify both warming and its effects on high-latitude carbon balance. We analysed long-term, daily surface meteorological records for 13 sites in Alaska and north-western Canada and an 82-y record of river ice breakup date for the Tanana River in interior Alaska. We found increases in winter and spring temperature extrema for all sites, with the greatest increases in spring minimum temperature, average 0.47 °C per 10 y, and a 0.7-day per 10 y advance in ice breakup on the Tanana River. We used the climate records to drive an ecosystem process model, BIOME_BGC, to simulate the effects of climate change on the carbon and water balances of boreal forest ecosystems. The growing season has lengthened by an average of 2.6 days per 10 y with an advance in average leaf onset date of 1.10 days per 10 y. This advance in the start of the active growing season correlates positively with progressively earlier ice breakup on the Tanana River in interior Alaska. The advance in the start of the growing season resulted in a 20% increase in net primary production for both aspen (Populus tremuloides) and white spruce (Picea glauca) stands. Aspen had a greater mean increase in maintenance respiration than spruce, whereas spruce had a greater mean increase in evapotranspiration. Average decomposition rates also increased for both species. Both net primary production and decomposition are enhanced in our simulations, suggesting that productive forest types may not experience a significant shift in net carbon flux as a result of climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid34956249, year = {2021}, author = {Rienth, M and Vigneron, N and Walker, RP and Castellarin, SD and Sweetman, C and Burbidge, CA and Bonghi, C and Famiani, F and Darriet, P}, title = {Modifications of Grapevine Berry Composition Induced by Main Viral and Fungal Pathogens in a Climate Change Scenario.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {717223}, pmid = {34956249}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The grapevine is subject to high number of fungal and viral diseases, which are responsible for important economic losses in the global wine sector every year. These pathogens deteriorate grapevine berry quality either directly via the modulation of fruit metabolic pathways and the production of endogenous compounds associated with bad taste and/or flavor, or indirectly via their impact on vine physiology. The most common and devastating fungal diseases in viticulture are gray mold, downy mildew (DM), and powdery mildew (PM), caused, respectively by Botrytis cinerea, Plasmopara viticola, and Erysiphe necator. Whereas B. cinerea mainly infects and deteriorates the ripening fruit directly, deteriorations by DM and PM are mostly indirect via a reduction of photosynthetic leaf area. Nevertheless, mildews can also infect berries at certain developmental stages and directly alter fruit quality via the biosynthesis of unpleasant flavor compounds that impair ultimate wine quality. The grapevine is furthermore host of a wide range of viruses that reduce vine longevity, productivity and berry quality in different ways. The most widespread virus-related diseases, that are known nowadays, are Grapevine Leafroll Disease (GLRD), Grapevine Fanleaf Disease (GFLD), and the more recently characterized grapevine red blotch disease (GRBD). Future climatic conditions are creating a more favorable environment for the proliferation of most virus-insect vectors, so the spread of virus-related diseases is expected to increase in most wine-growing regions. However, the impact of climate change on the evolution of fungal disease pressure will be variable and depending on region and pathogen, with mildews remaining certainly the major phytosanitary threat in most regions because their development rate is to a large extent temperature-driven. This paper aims to provide a review of published literature on most important grapevine fungal and viral pathogens and their impact on grape berry physiology and quality. Our overview of the published literature highlights gaps in our understanding of plant-pathogen interactions, which are valuable for conceiving future research programs dealing with the different pathogens and their impacts on grapevine berry quality and metabolism.}, }
@article {pmid34954685, year = {2022}, author = {Pal, SC and Chowdhuri, I and Das, B and Chakrabortty, R and Roy, P and Saha, A and Shit, M}, title = {Threats of climate change and land use patterns enhance the susceptibility of future floods in India.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {305}, number = {}, pages = {114317}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114317}, pmid = {34954685}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Floods ; Forecasting ; Humans ; India ; ROC Curve ; }, abstract = {The main objective of this work is the future prediction of the floods in India due to climate and land change. Human activity and related carbon emissions are the primary cause of land use and climate change, which has a substantial impact on extreme weather conditions, such as floods. This study presents high-resolution flood susceptibility maps of different future periods (up to 2100) using a combination of remote sensing data and GIS modelling. To quantify the future flood susceptibility various flood causative factors, Global circulation model (GCM) rainfall and land use and land cover (LULC) data are envisaged. The present flood susceptibility model has been evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, where area under curve (AUC) value shows the 91.57% accuracy of this flood susceptibility model and it can be used for future flood susceptibility modelling. Based on the projected LULC, rainfall and flood susceptibility, the results of the study indicating maximum monthly rainfall will increase by approximately 40-50 mm in 2100, while the conversion of natural vegetation to agricultural and built-up land is about 0.071 million sq. km. and the severe flood event area will increase by up to 122% (0.15 million sq. km) from now on.}, }
@article {pmid34951272, year = {2021}, author = {Xia, X and Li, Y and Yang, DD and Pi, YY}, title = {[Potential geographical distribution of Rana hanluica in China under climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {12}, pages = {4307-4314}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202112.003}, pmid = {34951272}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Ranidae ; }, abstract = {Global warming in the last few decades had strong impacts on biodiversity and geographi-cal distribution of different animal species worldwide, especially amphibians. Rana hanluica, a frog species endemic in China, is still classified as Least Concerned in the Red List of Threatened Species because few studies have been conducted on this species. To understand the survival of Rana hanluica population, we used maximum entropy models (MaxEnt) to analyze its distribution across regions under current climatic conditions based on 47 distribution records and 20 environmental factors. We investigated the changes in distribution of this species under different climate scenarios in China (2050s and 2070s). Finally, current and future suitable habitats for R. hanluica were mode-led, and the impacts of environmental factors in shaping its distribution were evaluated. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model was high, and AUC value of the receiver operating curve was 0.993. The total suitable habitat area for R. hanluica was 36.36×10[4] km[2], mainly located in Hunan and Guizhou provinces in China. The major environmental factors influencing the geographic distribution of R. hanluica were precipitation of dryest month and altitude. Under the future climate scenario (2050 and 2070) with two representative concentration pathways (RCPs, SSP1-2.5, SSP5-8.5), the suitable habitat of R. hanluica was reduced in different degrees, resulting in a decreasing trend of the total suitable habitat area. The center of gravity in highly suitable habitat of R. hanluica shifted to high-latitude regions, with the core distribution area in Hunan Province.}, }
@article {pmid34951027, year = {2022}, author = {Wesselink, AK and Wellenius, GA}, title = {Impacts of climate change on reproductive, perinatal and paediatric health.}, journal = {Paediatric and perinatal epidemiology}, volume = {36}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1111/ppe.12839}, pmid = {34951027}, issn = {1365-3016}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; *Parturition ; Pregnancy ; }, }
@article {pmid34951017, year = {2022}, author = {Alruiz, JM and Peralta-Maraver, I and Bozinovic, F and Santos, M and Rezende, EL}, title = {Thermal tolerance in Drosophila: Repercussions for distribution, community coexistence and responses to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {3}, pages = {655-667}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13653}, pmid = {34951017}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Drosophila/physiology ; Global Warming ; Longitudinal Studies ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Here we combined controlled experiments and field surveys to determine if estimates of heat tolerance predict distributional ranges and phenology of different Drosophila species in southern South America. We contrasted thermal death time curves, which consider both magnitude and duration of the challenge to estimate heat tolerance, against the thermal range where populations are viable based on field surveys in an 8-year longitudinal study. We observed a strong correspondence of the physiological limits, the thermal niche for population growth, and the geographic ranges across studied species, which suggests that the thermal biology of different species provides a common currency to understand how species will respond to warming temperatures both at a local level and throughout their distribution range. Our approach represents a novel analytical toolbox to anticipate how natural communities of ectothermic organisms will respond to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid34948666, year = {2021}, author = {Man, Z and Che, S and Xie, C and Jiang, R and Liang, A and Wu, H}, title = {Effect of Climate Change on CO2 Flux in Temperate Grassland, Subtropical Artificial Coniferous Forest and Tropical Rain Forest Ecosystems.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {34948666}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Grassland ; Rainforest ; Seasons ; *Tracheophyta ; }, abstract = {The interactions between CO2 flux, an important component of ecosystem carbon flux, and climate change vary significantly among different ecosystems. In this research, the inter-annual variation characteristics of ecosystem respiration (RE), gross ecosystem exchange (GEE), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were explored in the temperate grassland (TG) of Xilinhot (2004-2010), the subtropical artificial coniferous forest (SACF) of Qianyanzhou (2003-2010), and the tropical rain forest (TRF) of Xishuangbanna (2003-2010). The main factors of climate change affecting ecosystem CO2 flux were identified by redundancy analysis, and exponential models and temperature indicators were constructed to consider the relationship between climate change and CO2 flux. Every year from 2003 to 2010, RE and GEE first increased and then decreased, and NEE showed no significant change pattern. TG was a carbon source, whereas SACF and TRF were carbon sinks. The influence of air temperature on RE and GEE was greater than that of soil temperature, but the influence of soil moisture on RE and GEE was greater than that of air moisture. Compared with moisture and photosynthetically active radiation, temperature had the greatest impact on CO2 flux and the exponential model had the best fitting effect. In TG and SACF, the average temperature was the most influential factor, and in TRF, the accumulated temperature was the most influential factor. These results provide theoretical support for mitigating and managing climate change and provide references for achieving carbon neutrality.}, }
@article {pmid34948657, year = {2021}, author = {Latkin, C and Dayton, L and Coyle, C and Yi, G and Lee, DI and Winiker, A}, title = {The Relationship between Social Norms, Avoidance, Future Orientation, and Willingness to Engage in Climate Change Advocacy Communications.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {34948657}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {R01 DA040488/DA/NIDA NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; Peer Group ; *Social Norms ; }, abstract = {This study examined factors associated with willingness to engage in communication behaviors related to climate change advocacy. Data were collected as part of an online, longitudinal US study beginning in March 2020. Outcomes included willingness to post materials online, contact state legislators, and talk with peers about climate change. Covariates included climate change-related social norms, avoidance of climate change information, and perceptions of the future impact of climate change. A minority of the 586 respondents (23%) reported regular conversations about climate change, while approximately half of the respondents reported willingness to discuss climate change with peers (58%), post materials online (47%), and contact state legislators (46%). Strong predictors of willingness to engage in each climate change communications behaviors included climate change social norms, not avoiding climate change information, and believing that climate change will have a negative impact on the future. Findings indicate the importance of designing programs to foster increased climate change communications in order to promote community-level climate change advocacy norms.}, }
@article {pmid34948318, year = {2021}, author = {Klupczyńska, EA and Ratajczak, E}, title = {Can Forest Trees Cope with Climate Change?-Effects of DNA Methylation on Gene Expression and Adaptation to Environmental Change.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {22}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {34948318}, issn = {1422-0067}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*genetics ; Animals ; Climate Change ; DNA Methylation/*genetics ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Gene Expression/*genetics ; Humans ; Trees/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Epigenetic modifications, including chromatin modifications and DNA methylation, play key roles in regulating gene expression in both plants and animals. Transmission of epigenetic markers is important for some genes to maintain specific expression patterns and preserve the status quo of the cell. This article provides a review of existing research and the current state of knowledge about DNA methylation in trees in the context of global climate change, along with references to the potential of epigenome editing tools and the possibility of their use for forest tree research. Epigenetic modifications, including DNA methylation, are involved in evolutionary processes, developmental processes, and environmental interactions. Thus, the implications of epigenetics are important for adaptation and phenotypic plasticity because they provide the potential for tree conservation in forest ecosystems exposed to adverse conditions resulting from global warming and regional climate fluctuations.}, }
@article {pmid34947863, year = {2021}, author = {Kim, TK and Paek, J and Kim, HY and Choi, I}, title = {Relative Risk Prediction of Norovirus Incidence under Climate Change in Korea.}, journal = {Life (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {34947863}, issn = {2075-1729}, support = {PJ015845//Agriculture Science &amp; Technology Development/ ; }, abstract = {As incidences of food poisoning, especially norovirus-induced diarrhea, are associated with climate change, there is a need for an approach that can be used to predict the risks of such illnesses with high accuracy. In this paper, we predict the winter norovirus incidence rate in Korea compared to that of other diarrhea-causing viruses using a model based on B-spline added to logistic regression to estimate the long-term pattern of illness. We also develop a risk index based on the estimated probability of occurrence. Our probabilistic analysis shows that the risk of norovirus-related food poisoning in winter will remain stable or increase in Korea based on various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Our approach can be used to obtain an overview of the changes occurring in regional and seasonal norovirus patterns that can help assist in making appropriate policy decisions.}, }
@article {pmid34943192, year = {2021}, author = {Freitas, EN and Salgado, JCS and Alnoch, RC and Contato, AG and Habermann, E and Michelin, M and Martínez, CA and Polizeli, MLTM}, title = {Challenges of Biomass Utilization for Bioenergy in a Climate Change Scenario.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {34943192}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2008/57908-6//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; 2008/58075-8//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; 2014/50884//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; 2018/07522-6//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; 2017/23989-9//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; 2019/07141-5//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; 2019/21989-7//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; 2020/00081-4//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; 446357/2015-4//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; 465319/2014-9//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; 301963/2017-7//National Council for Scientific and Technological Development/ ; }, abstract = {The climate changes expected for the next decades will expose plants to increasing occurrences of combined abiotic stresses, including drought, higher temperatures, and elevated CO2 atmospheric concentrations. These abiotic stresses have significant consequences on photosynthesis and other plants' physiological processes and can lead to tolerance mechanisms that impact metabolism dynamics and limit plant productivity. Furthermore, due to the high carbohydrate content on the cell wall, plants represent a an essential source of lignocellulosic biomass for biofuels production. Thus, it is necessary to estimate their potential as feedstock for renewable energy production in future climate conditions since the synthesis of cell wall components seems to be affected by abiotic stresses. This review provides a brief overview of plant responses and the tolerance mechanisms applied in climate change scenarios that could impact its use as lignocellulosic biomass for bioenergy purposes. Important steps of biofuel production, which might influence the effects of climate change, besides biomass pretreatments and enzymatic biochemical conversions, are also discussed. We believe that this study may improve our understanding of the plant biological adaptations to combined abiotic stress and assist in the decision-making for selecting key agronomic crops that can be efficiently adapted to climate changes and applied in bioenergy production.}, }
@article {pmid34938503, year = {2021}, author = {Li, J and Xue, Y and Hacker, CE and Zhang, Y and Li, Y and Cong, W and Jin, L and Li, G and Wu, B and Li, D and Zhang, Y}, title = {Projected impacts of climate change on snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province, China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {23}, pages = {17202-17218}, pmid = {34938503}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt model) to assess potential changes in suitable snow leopard (Panthera uncia) habitat in Qinghai Province, China, under a mild climate change scenario. Our results showed that the area of suitable snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province was 302,821 km[2] under current conditions and 228,997 km[2] under the 2050s climatic scenario, with a mean upward shift in elevation of 90 m. At present, nature reserves protect 38.78% of currently suitable habitat and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitat. Current areas of climate refugia amounted to 212,341 km[2] and are mainly distributed in the Sanjiangyuan region, Qilian mountains, and surrounding areas. Our results provide valuable information for formulating strategies to meet future conservation challenges brought on by climate stress. We suggest that conservation efforts in Qinghai Province should focus on protecting areas of climate refugia and on maintaining or building corridors when planning for future species management.}, }
@article {pmid34936455, year = {2021}, author = {Bell, DA and Kovach, RP and Muhlfeld, CC and Al-Chokhachy, R and Cline, TJ and Whited, DC and Schmetterling, DA and Lukacs, PM and Whiteley, AR}, title = {Climate change and expanding invasive species drive widespread declines of native trout in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {7}, number = {52}, pages = {eabj5471}, pmid = {34936455}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Climate change and invasive species are major threats to native biodiversity, but few empirical studies have examined their combined effects at large spatial and temporal scales. Using 21,917 surveys collected over 30 years, we quantified the impacts of climate change on the past and future distributions of five interacting native and invasive trout species throughout the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. We found that the occupancy of native bull trout and cutthroat trout declined by 18 and 6%, respectively (1993–2018), and was predicted to decrease by an additional 39 and 16% by 2080. However, reasons for these occupancy reductions markedly differed among species: Climate-driven increases in water temperature and decreases in summer flow likely caused declines of bull trout, while climate-induced expansion of invasive species largely drove declines of cutthroat trout. Our results demonstrate that climate change can affect ecologically similar, co-occurring native species through distinct pathways, necessitating species-specific management actions.}, }
@article {pmid34936420, year = {2022}, author = {Hernández, D}, title = {Climate Justice Starts at Home: Building Resilient Housing to Reduce Disparate Impacts From Climate Change in Residential Settings.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {112}, number = {1}, pages = {66-68}, pmid = {34936420}, issn = {1541-0048}, support = {P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Justice ; *Home Environment ; *Housing Quality ; Humans ; *Social Determinants of Health ; *Social Vulnerability ; }, }
@article {pmid34929008, year = {2021}, author = {Akrivou, A and Georgopoulou, I and Papachristos, DP and Milonas, PG and Kriticos, DJ}, title = {Potential global distribution of Aleurocanthus woglumi considering climate change and irrigation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {12}, pages = {e0261626}, pmid = {34929008}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Reproduction ; *Simuliidae/physiology ; }, abstract = {Citrus blackfly, Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), is an important agricultural quarantine pest, causing substantial economic losses to citrus and many other cultivated crops. Aleurocanthus woglumi is found in tropical and subtropical regions but is presently unknown in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. We used CLIMEX to model the potential distribution of A. woglumi under an historical climate scenario (centred on 1995), including a spatially explicit irrigation scenario. We found that A. woglumi could potentially invade the Mediterranean Basin, and south-east Asia, including Australia. There is potential for it to invade most of sub-Saharan Africa. Irrigation is revealed as an important habitat factor affecting the potential distribution of A. woglumi, increasing its potential range by 53% in Asia. Under a future climate scenario for 2050, its potential distribution increased across all continents except Africa, where potential range expansion due to relaxation of cold stresses was limited, and was offset by range decrease due to lethal heat or dry stress. As global climates warm, Europe is likely to face a substantial increase in the area at risk of establishment by A. woglumi (almost doubling under the 2050 irrigation scenario). The biosecurity threat from A. woglumi is significant in current citrus production areas and poses a challenge to biosecurity managers and risk analysts.}, }
@article {pmid34924649, year = {2021}, author = {Day, J and Chin, N and Sydnor, S and Widhalm, M and Shah, KU and Dorworth, L}, title = {Implications of climate change for tourism and outdoor recreation: an Indiana, USA, case study.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {169}, number = {3-4}, pages = {29}, pmid = {34924649}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {In this case study, we examine a broad range of impacts on tourism and recreation based on projected changes to Indiana's climate. The direct impacts of climate change on Indiana include increases in the number of hot and extremely hot days each summer, fewer mild days, more rain, and less snow. Each direct impact will affect tourism and recreation. Additionally, a range of indirect impacts are anticipated, including climate-related changes in health issues, new infrastructure needs, changes in forests and other recreational areas, and shifting consumer attitudes toward travel and recreation. Although direct impacts are predictable, indirect impacts on the complex tourism system are harder to anticipate, and the tourism and recreation industry must build resilience to respond to future change. The paper concludes with recommendations for future study.}, }
@article {pmid34924599, year = {2021}, author = {Furlow, J and Braun, M}, title = {America's Polarized Politics of Climate Change.}, journal = {Inter economics}, volume = {56}, number = {6}, pages = {371-372}, doi = {10.1007/s10272-021-1016-3}, pmid = {34924599}, issn = {0020-5346}, }
@article {pmid34923724, year = {2022}, author = {Hunter, WR}, title = {Can carbon storage in West Antarctic fjords have an impact on climate change, following glacier retreat?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {5}, pages = {1703-1704}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16047}, pmid = {34923724}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Estuaries ; *Ice Cover ; }, }
@article {pmid34923594, year = {2021}, author = {Narouei, M and Javadi, SA and Khodagholi, M and Jafari, M and Azizinejad, R}, title = {Modeling the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of the rangeland species Gymnocarpus decander Forssk (case study: Arid region of southeastern Iran).}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {194}, number = {1}, pages = {33}, pmid = {34923594}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Iran ; }, abstract = {The phenomenon of climate change is the biggest environmental challenge in the world. Climate is a determinant factor in species distribution, and climate change will affect the species' abilities to occupy geographic regions. In this study which was conducted in May of 2019, spatio-temporal changes in potential habitats of Gymnocarpus decander were assessed using the MRI-CGCM3 climate change model for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the near future (2041-2061) and far future (2061-2080) periods for this purpose, climatic variables of 24 synoptic stations across a case study, bio-climatic data and vegetation cover maps of G. decander were used. First, using the factor analysis process, the dimensions of the station-observed climatic variables were reduced to five factors with a total variance of 88.3%. Then, the region was divided into five homogeneous climatic regions using partitional clustering analysis. In this study by using the logistic regression modeling technique, the probability of the presence of the desired species for two groups of independent variables including climatic factors and bioclimatic variables in each of the groups was modeled. The results showed that the best models for determining the potential habitats of G. decander are logistic regression models in groups with independent bioclimatic variables. According to the results obtained from both scenarios, the habitats of G. decander species will decrease in the future. In the most optimistic case, about 8% of G. decander habitats will be lost by 2060 and about 12% by 2080. According to modeling results, currently, 48.2% total area of the region under study has a high potential for the presence of G. decander. Also, results indicate that region number 4 in this study with an altitude range of about 800-1250 m, 16 °C average temperature in the growing season and annual precipitation around 150-170 mm is the major habitat for G. decander. According to climate change under the RCP2.6 scenario, the area of potential habitats of G. decander will decrease to 40% in the near future and 36.4% in the far future; and according to climate change under the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of potential habitats of G. decander will decrease to 23.9% in the near future and 32.5% in the far future. In the far future, because of the increase in total precipitation, some of the lost potential habitats during the near future will be suitable again for G. decander. Due to its stability in harsh environmental conditions, G. decander appears as a type-forming species in a wide range of natural habitats in the study area and is therefore important in terms of soil protection and forage production.}, }
@article {pmid34922164, year = {2022}, author = {Tomou, EM and Skaltsa, H and Economou, G and Trichopoulou, A}, title = {Sustainable diets &amp; medicinal aromatic plants in Greece: Perspectives towards climate change.}, journal = {Food chemistry}, volume = {374}, number = {}, pages = {131767}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodchem.2021.131767}, pmid = {34922164}, issn = {1873-7072}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Diet ; *Diet, Mediterranean ; Feeding Behavior ; Greece ; Humans ; *Plants, Medicinal ; }, abstract = {In recent years, climate change continuously concerns the scientific community about its effects on agrobiodiversity, food safety and human health. Remodeling to sustainable diets and lifestyles is proved to be the most radical need to tackle this grave phenomenon. The goals of this commentary are to present the Greek traditional Mediterranean diet as a principal sustainable diet, to emphasize the role of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants in Greece as indispensable components of this healthy dietary pattern, and to discuss the potential results of climate change at their phytochemical content. Moreover, the impact of climate challenge at the occurrence of Greek MAPs and their survival is also described. Multiple approaches for addressing this challenge are proposed, as well as recommendations for specific actions with a focus on Greek traditional Mediterranean diet and MAPs of Greece.}, }
@article {pmid34921346, year = {2022}, author = {Niella, Y and Butcher, P and Holmes, B and Barnett, A and Harcourt, R}, title = {Correction to: Forecasting intraspecific changes in distribution of a wide-ranging marine predator under climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {198}, number = {3}, pages = {837}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-021-05092-6}, pmid = {34921346}, issn = {1432-1939}, }
@article {pmid34920240, year = {2022}, author = {Xu, Y and Ma, L and Sui, J and Li, X and Wang, H and Zhang, B}, title = {Potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of macrobenthos in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {113238}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.113238}, pmid = {34920240}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; China ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Polychaeta ; }, abstract = {Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to detect potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of macrobenthos in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. We obtained the presence/absence data of five dominant and characteristic macrobenthos from 268 sites investigated during 2000-2016 and 13 environmental variables from online datasets. The ensemble SDMs were constructed and were in good model performance for all five species. Model projections showed that the five species displayed different reactions to future climate scenarios: two species (the ophiuroid Ophiura sarsii vadicola and the bivalve Thyasira tokunagai) will likely contract their ranges, two (the crab Xenophthalmus pinnotheroides and the polychaete Sternaspis chinensis) will likely expand their ranges, and one (the ophiuroid Amphioplus japonicus) will likely move northward. Those differences were mainly due to their difference in thermal tolerance. Our findings provide important scientific basis for understanding the influence of climate change on marine benthic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid34918414, year = {2022}, author = {Subiza, J and Cabrera, M and Jm, CR and Jc, C and Mj, N}, title = {Influence of climate change on airborne pollen concentrations in Madrid, 1979-2018.}, journal = {Clinical and experimental allergy : journal of the British Society for Allergy and Clinical Immunology}, volume = {52}, number = {4}, pages = {574-577}, doi = {10.1111/cea.14082}, pmid = {34918414}, issn = {1365-2222}, mesh = {Allergens ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Pollen ; *Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal ; }, }
@article {pmid34918089, year = {2021}, author = {Webster, P and Neal, K}, title = {COP26-will it connect the dots between climate change and inequality?.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {685-686}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdab388}, pmid = {34918089}, issn = {1741-3850}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34917807, year = {2021}, author = {Khairulbahri, M}, title = {Analyzing the impacts of climate change on rice supply in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {e08515}, pmid = {34917807}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Differing from other main grains, rice is mainly fed by humans. This means that rice is important for human food security. Rice also has a significant contribution to employment and the economy, especially in developing countries. Owing to this, understanding the negative impacts of climate change on rice supply is a critical issue. This study uses the system dynamics modeling to investigate the impacts of climate change on three factors: rice yield, harvested areas, and rice production in West Nusa Tenggara (WNT), Indonesia throughout this century. In doing so, this study incorporates production and climate factors in assessing the impacts of climate change on rice supply. Although climate change may allow a small increase in harvested areas, decreases in rice yield will likely outweigh this. Owing to this, policymakers should not rely on the farming land expansion. Rather, policymakers should enhance the research and development of heat-tolerant rice varieties to anticipate the negative impacts of climate change on rice supply. This study also claims that despite the negative impacts of climate change on rice production, WNT can fulfill its local rice demand under a changing climate. Nevertheless, WNT cannot provide a sufficient rice for its neighboring provinces: Bali and East Nusa Tenggara.}, }
@article {pmid34917286, year = {2021}, author = {Joseph, S and Antwi, MA and Chagwiza, C and Rubhara, TT}, title = {Climate change adaptation strategies and production efficiency: The case of citrus farmers in the Limpopo province, South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1093}, pmid = {34917286}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change adaptation policies and strategies have inevitably become an integral component of agricultural production on a global scale. The evaluative extent to which these adaptation techniques have influenced agricultural productivity is inherently exiguous. Citrus production in tropical regions such as South Africa, is more vulnerable to climate change as the region already experience hot and dry climate, hence the need to implement different strategies for climate change adaption in these regions. This study was designed to assess the effect of adopting the following climate change adaptation measures: planting drought resistant varieties, rainwater harvesting, planting early maturing varieties, integrated pest management (IPM) , changing fertiliser type, and applying drip irrigation to manage climate challenges on the production efficiency of citrus farmers in the Limpopo province of South Africa. The stochastic frontier production function with Cobb Douglas production functional form was used to analyse the productivity of farmers' vis-à-vis adopted climate change strategies. A survey was conducted and data were collected through a semi-structured questionnaire administered to respondents from 235 production units in the five district municipalities of Limpopo. The likelihood ratio tests for profit models showed that farmers were profit efficient considering the identified adaptation strategies. The variables that influenced profit efficiency was price of fertiliser (p < 0.010) and water cost (p < 0.010). The inefficiency model showed that besides changing fertiliser as an adaptation measure, the other adaptation strategies including IPM, water harvesting and planting drought resistant varieties did not change the profit efficiency of farmers. Therefore, the results indicate that citrus farmers can still adapt to climate change and remain profit efficient.}, }
@article {pmid34916499, year = {2021}, author = {Tao, Y and Steckel, D and Klemeš, JJ and You, F}, title = {Trend towards virtual and hybrid conferences may be an effective climate change mitigation strategy.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {7324}, pmid = {34916499}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {CBET-1643244//National Science Foundation (NSF)/ ; }, abstract = {Since 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has urged event holders to shift conferences online. Virtual and hybrid conferences are greener alternatives to in-person conferences, yet their environmental sustainability has not been fully assessed. Considering food, accommodation, preparation, execution, information and communication technology, and transportation, here we report comparative life cycle assessment results of in-person, virtual, and hybrid conferences and consider carbon footprint trade-offs between in-person participation and hybrid conferences. We find that transitioning from in-person to virtual conferencing can substantially reduce the carbon footprint by 94% and energy use by 90%. For the sake of maintaining more than 50% of in-person participation, carefully selected hubs for hybrid conferences have the potential to slash carbon footprint and energy use by two-thirds. Furthermore, switching the dietary type of future conferences to plant-based diets and improving energy efficiencies of the information and communication technology sector can further reduce the carbon footprint of virtual conferences.}, }
@article {pmid34914521, year = {2021}, author = {Huderson, A}, title = {Climate change in the classroomMiseducation: How Climate Change Is Taught in America Katie Worth Columbia Global Reports, 2021. 184 pp.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {374}, number = {6574}, pages = {1451}, doi = {10.1126/science.abl9313}, pmid = {34914521}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Inconsistent and agenda-driven K–12 curricula leave US citizens ill-equipped to confront environmental problems.}, }
@article {pmid34912130, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, AY and Trtanj, JM and Lipp, EK and Balbus, JM}, title = {Toward an Integrated System of Climate Change and Human Health Indicators: A Conceptual Framework.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {166}, number = {3-4}, pages = {}, pmid = {34912130}, issn = {0165-0009}, support = {Z99 ES999999/ImNIH/Intramural NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Environmental health indicators are helpful for tracking and communicating complex health trends, informing science and policy decisions, and evaluating public health actions. When provided on a national scale, they can help inform the general public, policy makers, and public health professionals about important trends in exposures and how well public health systems are preventing those exposures from causing adverse health outcomes. There is a growing need to understand national trends in exposures and health outcomes associated with climate change and the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies for health. To date, most indicators for health implications of climate change have been designed as independent, individual metrics. This approach fails to take into account how exposure-outcome pathways for climate-attributable health outcomes involve multiple, interconnected components. We propose reframing climate change and health indicators as a linked system of indicators, which can be described as follows: upstream climate drivers affect environmental states, which then determine human exposures, which ultimately lead to health outcomes; these climate-related risks are modified by population vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies. We apply this new conceptual framework to three illustrative climate-sensitive health outcomes and associated exposure-outcome pathways: pollen allergies and asthma, West Nile Virus infection, and vibriosis.}, }
@article {pmid34910525, year = {2021}, author = {Bernardo, C and Wang, L and Vasca, F and Hong, Y and Shi, G and Altafini, C}, title = {Achieving consensus in multilateral international negotiations: The case study of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {7}, number = {51}, pages = {eabg8068}, pmid = {34910525}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The purpose of this paper is to propose a dynamical model describing the achievement of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. To represent the complex, decade-long, multiparty negotiation process that led to the accord, we use a two time scale dynamical model. The short time scale corresponds to the discussion process occurring at each meeting and is represented as a Friedkin-Johnsen model, a dynamical multiparty model in which the parties show stubbornness, i.e., tend to defend their positions during the discussion. The long time scale behavior is determined by concatenating multiple Friedkin-Johnsen models (one for each meeting). The proposed model, tuned on real data extracted from the Paris Agreement meetings, achieves consensus on a time horizon similar to that of the real negotiations. Remarkably, the model is also able to identify a series of parties that exerted a key leadership role in the Paris Agreement negotiation process.}, }
@article {pmid34910255, year = {2021}, author = {El-Sayed, AM and Ganji, S and Gross, J and Giesen, N and Rid, M and Lo, PL and Kokeny, A and Unelius, CR}, title = {Correction to: Climate change risk to pheromone application in pest management.}, journal = {Die Naturwissenschaften}, volume = {109}, number = {1}, pages = {8}, doi = {10.1007/s00114-021-01770-w}, pmid = {34910255}, issn = {1432-1904}, }
@article {pmid34907855, year = {2022}, author = {Aoyagi, T and Chiba, Y and Kitaoka, H}, title = {Association between acute coronary syndrome onset risk and climate change.}, journal = {Archives of environmental &amp; occupational health}, volume = {77}, number = {10}, pages = {779-788}, doi = {10.1080/19338244.2021.2016567}, pmid = {34907855}, issn = {2154-4700}, mesh = {*Acute Coronary Syndrome/epidemiology/etiology ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Incidence ; Seasons ; Weather ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to clarify the association between the onset of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and weather conditions in summer and winter in the same region. At a general hospital inJapan, weather conditions during the onset of 2,381 cases diagnosed with ACS over 25 years were analyzed using a generalized additive model adopting log-quasi-Poisson distribution as the link function, with "the occurrence of ACS" as the dependent variable and "weather data" as the independent variable. In conclusion, we found that ACS occurred at about the same frequency in winter and summer, and the season did not affect the onset. The onset rate decreased 0.960-fold per 1 °C increase in the minimum temperature one day before the day of onset and decreased 0.987-fold per 1 hPa increase in the mean station pressure of the previous day.}, }
@article {pmid34904352, year = {2022}, author = {Ojala, M}, title = {Commentary: Climate change worry among adolescents-on the importance of going beyond the constructive-unconstructive dichotomy to explore coping efforts-a commentary on Sciberras and Fernando (2021).}, journal = {Child and adolescent mental health}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {89-91}, doi = {10.1111/camh.12530}, pmid = {34904352}, issn = {1475-357X}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Adolescent ; Anxiety/psychology ; *Climate Change ; Emotions ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; }, abstract = {This opinion piece comments on Sciberras and Fernando's (2021) article in which an 8-year longitudinal study is presented. The authors investigate trajectories of climate change worry through adolescence and associations with measures of depression and engagement with news and politics in late adolescence. Their objective is to explore whether climate change worry is a constructive or unconstructive psychological phenomenon. Their conclusion is that it is mainly an adaptive response but, for some groups, such as young people with pre-existing mental health problems, climate change worry could exacerbate their difficulties. In this commentary, it is argued that since research has found diverse results regarding whether climate worry is adaptive or not, one should perhaps not focus so much on the emotion itself, but rather on how people cope with their worry. Some examples of how young people cope with climate change are presented, and it is argued that taking account of these coping strategies in future longitudinal studies would be beneficial.}, }
@article {pmid34904349, year = {2022}, author = {Parry, S and McCarthy, SR and Clark, J}, title = {Young people's engagement with climate change issues through digital media - a content analysis.}, journal = {Child and adolescent mental health}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {30-38}, doi = {10.1111/camh.12532}, pmid = {34904349}, issn = {1475-357X}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Anxiety ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Internet ; Mental Health ; *Social Media ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The reporting of climate change issues through social media can influence young people's mental health and engagement. However, there has been little research undertaken directly with young people in relation to social and digital media's reporting of climate change, and how this is experienced by young people.<br><br>METHOD: This study aimed to explore the interface between climate change and social media reporting for young people. A two-stage iterative approach to recruitment and data collection included an initial qualitative stage (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;28), consisting of open-ended questions about social media's reporting of climate change issues. The second stage (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;23) included further open-ended questions and 10 Likert-Scale questions. Overall, 51 young people 16-25-years-old opted to take part (M&#x2009;=&#x2009;11; F&#x2009;=&#x2009;40). Descriptive statistics and an inductive data-driven content analysis are reported.<br><br>RESULTS: Overall, 95% of the participants reported that they had the personal skills to cope with climate change reporting on social media. Most participants stated that coverage on the climate increased 'climate change anxiety' but not their overall mental health difficulties. A four-stage experiential process of observing social media's reporting of climate change, feeling emotionally affected by the reporting, critically apprising the content and feeling motivated to engage in climate change activism emerged from the content analysis. The participants discussed experiences of digital media, rather than solely social media, in their accounts.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The participants recommended changes to climate change reporting and increasing access to education about climate change issues to reduce anxiety and enhance motivation for positive personal engagement. Involving young people in conversations and education about climate change were seen as protective factors for mental health and enablers for motivation. Motivation, agency and pathways for positive change were associated with hopefulness.}, }
@article {pmid34903627, year = {2021}, author = {Huffling, K}, title = {Nurses Drawdown: Building a Nurse-Led, Solutions-Based Quality Improvement Project to Address Climate Change.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {245-250}, doi = {10.1891/cn-2021-0015}, pmid = {34903627}, issn = {1946-1895}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Humans ; Nurse's Role ; *Quality Improvement ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is one of the most significant threats to public health we currently face. While the link between climate change and health is clear, many nurses have not received education on climate change, as it may not routinely be included in nursing curricula. This lack of knowledge can prevent nurses from engaging in climate solutions, incorporating climate change into their practice or research, or participating in climate advocacy within their institutions or with policymakers.<br><br>METHODS: Nurses Drawdown is a web-based platform that builds on the work of Project Drawdown, which identifies and quantifies effective, evidence-based climate solutions. Nurses Drawdown utilizes evidence-based techniques for web design and movement building to engage a global nursing audience on five areas of action that have clear links to health: Energy, Food, Gender Equity, Mobility, and Nature-Based Solutions.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixteen nursing organizations signed on with Nurses Drawdown as official partners; within 1 month of going live, nurses from 16 countries had committed to take action. Web-based movement building can effectively engage a global nursing audience. However, new partnerships with nursing organizations may not form until there is proof of nursing engagement.}, }
@article {pmid34902203, year = {2022}, author = {Oyinlola, MA and Reygondeau, G and Wabnitz, CCC and Frölicher, TL and Lam, VWY and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Projecting global mariculture production and adaptation pathways under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {1315-1331}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15991}, pmid = {34902203}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; *Fisheries ; Fishes ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The sustainability of global seafood supply to meet increasing demand is facing several challenges, including increasing consumption levels due to a growing human population, fisheries resources over-exploitation and climate change. Whilst growth in seafood production from capture fisheries is limited, global mariculture production is expanding. However, climate change poses risks to the potential seafood production from mariculture. Here, we apply a global mariculture production model that accounts for changing ocean conditions, suitable marine area for farming, fishmeal and fish oil production, farmed species dietary demand, farmed fish price and global seafood demand to project mariculture production under two climate and socio-economic scenarios. We include 85 farmed marine fish and mollusc species, representing about 70% of all mariculture production in 2015. Results show positive global mariculture production changes by the mid and end of the 21[st] century relative to the 2000s under the SSP1-2.6 scenario with an increase of 17%±5 and 33%±6, respectively. However, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, an increase of 8%±5 is projected, with production peaking by mid-century and declining by 16%±5 towards the end of the 21[st] century. More than 25% of mariculture-producing nations are projected to lose 40%-90% of their current mariculture production potential under SSP5-8.5 by mid-century. Projected impacts are mainly due to the direct ocean warming effects on farmed species and suitable marine areas, and the indirect impacts of changing availability of forage fishes supplies to produce aquafeed. Fishmeal replacement with alternative protein can lower climate impacts on a subset of finfish production. However, such adaptation measures do not apply to regions dominated by non-feed-based farming (i.e. molluscs) and regions losing substantial marine areas suitable for mariculture. Our study highlights the importance of strong mitigation efforts and the need for different climate adaptation options tailored to the diversity of mariculture systems, to support climate-resilient mariculture development.}, }
@article {pmid34900513, year = {2022}, author = {Meijers, MHC and Scholz, C and Torfadóttir, RH and Wonneberger, A and Markov, M}, title = {Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic to combat climate change: comparing drivers of individual action in global crises.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {272-282}, pmid = {34900513}, issn = {2190-6483}, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are two global crises that require collective action. Yet, the inertia typically associated with behavior change to limit climate change stands in contrast to the speed associated with behavior change to stop the spread of COVID-19. Identifying the roots of these differences can help us stimulate climate-friendly behaviors. We assessed the extent to which a number of theory-based drivers underlie behaviors aiming to counter COVID-19 and climate change with an online survey (N = 534). We focused on the role of a number of drivers derived from prominent behavior change theories and meta-analyses in the field, namely, personal threat, threat to close others, threat to vulnerable others, fear, participative efficacy, injunctive and descriptive social norms, and governmental policy perceptions. We investigated (1) what drivers people perceived as most important to engage in behaviors that limit the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change and (2) the strength of the associations between these drivers and engaging in behaviors that limit the spread of the pandemic and climate change. Results highlight three key drivers for climate change action: changing perceptions of governmental policy and perceptions of threat to close others and priming participative efficacy beliefs.}, }
@article {pmid34898861, year = {2021}, author = {McMahon, K and Gray, C}, title = {Climate change, social vulnerability and child nutrition in South Asia.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {71}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {34898861}, issn = {0959-3780}, support = {P2C HD050924/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Despite recent advancements in global population well-being and food security, climate change threatens to undermine child nutritional health, particularly for marginalized populations in tropical low- and middle-income countries. South Asia is at particular risk for climate-driven undernutrition due to a combination of historical weather exposures, existing nutritional deficits, and a lack of sanitation access. Previous studies have established that precipitation extremes increase rates of undernutrition in this region, but the existing literature lacks adequate consideration of temperature anomalies, mediating social factors, and the developmentally-relevant timing of exposure. We combine high-resolution temperature and precipitation data with large-sample survey data on household demographics and child anthropometry, using an approach that incorporates three key developmental periods and a rigorous fixed effects design. We find that precipitation extremes in the first year of life significantly decrease children's height-for-age (HAZ) in South Asia. The detrimental effects of extreme precipitation are especially concentrated in under-resourced households, such as those lacking access to proper sanitation and education for women, while anomalous heat is particularly harmful for children in Pakistan, though it tends to benefit children in some demographic groups. These results indicate that nutritional status in South Asia is highly responsive to climate exposures, and that addressing sanitation infrastructure and other development priorities is a pathway towards reducing this vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid34895739, year = {2022}, author = {Cockrell, HC and Anderson, JE and Hansen, EE and Waldhausen, JHT and Greenberg, SLM}, title = {An imperative for the pediatric surgical community to prioritize climate change.}, journal = {Journal of pediatric surgery}, volume = {57}, number = {4}, pages = {782-783}, doi = {10.1016/j.jpedsurg.2021.11.004}, pmid = {34895739}, issn = {1531-5037}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34895496, year = {2021}, author = {Hickman, C and Marks, E and Pihkala, P and Clayton, S and Lewandowski, RE and Mayall, EE and Wray, B and Mellor, C and van Susteren, L}, title = {Climate anxiety in children and young people and their beliefs about government responses to climate change: a global survey.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {12}, pages = {e863-e873}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00278-3}, pmid = {34895496}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Anxiety/epidemiology ; Australia ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Government ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has important implications for the health and futures of children and young people, yet they have little power to limit its harm, making them vulnerable to climate anxiety. This is the first large-scale investigation of climate anxiety in children and young people globally and its relationship with perceived government response.<br><br>METHODS: We surveyed 10&#x2008;000 children and young people (aged 16-25 years) in ten countries (Australia, Brazil, Finland, France, India, Nigeria, Philippines, Portugal, the UK, and the USA; 1000 participants per country). Invitations to complete the survey were sent via the platform Kantar between May 18 and June 7, 2021. Data were collected on participants' thoughts and feelings about climate change, and government responses to climate change. Descriptive statistics were calculated for each aspect of climate anxiety, and Pearson's correlation analysis was done to evaluate whether climate-related distress, functioning, and negative beliefs about climate change were linked to thoughts and feelings about government response.<br><br>FINDINGS: Respondents across all countries were worried about climate change (59% were very or extremely worried and 84% were at least moderately worried). More than 50% reported each of the following emotions: sad, anxious, angry, powerless, helpless, and guilty. More than 45% of respondents said their feelings about climate change negatively affected their daily life and functioning, and many reported a high number of negative thoughts about climate change (eg, 75% said that they think the future is frightening and 83% said that they think people have failed to take care of the planet). Respondents rated governmental responses to climate change negatively and reported greater feelings of betrayal than of reassurance. Climate anxiety and distress were correlated with perceived inadequate government response and associated feelings of betrayal.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Climate anxiety and dissatisfaction with government responses are widespread in children and young people in countries across the world and impact their daily functioning. A perceived failure by governments to respond to the climate crisis is associated with increased distress. There is an urgent need for further research into the emotional impact of climate change on children and young people and for governments to validate their distress by taking urgent action on climate change.<br><br>FUNDING: AVAAZ.}, }
@article {pmid34891007, year = {2022}, author = {Ishtiaque, A and Estoque, RC and Eakin, H and Parajuli, J and Rabby, YW}, title = {IPCC's current conceptualization of 'vulnerability' needs more clarification for climate change vulnerability assessments.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {303}, number = {}, pages = {114246}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114246}, pmid = {34891007}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Concept Formation ; }, abstract = {In this Short Communication, we raise the concern that the existing conceptualization of 'vulnerability', introduced in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), is not facilitative for standalone vulnerability assessments and that this conceptualization has not been well accepted by the vulnerability researchers. We identify three key reasons for low adoption of the AR5 conceptualization in climate change vulnerability assessments, and urge the IPCC Working Group II to clarify how the current conceptualization of 'vulnerability' can facilitate standalone climate change vulnerability assessments. We propose treating 'exposure' not only as a precondition for vulnerability but also as a secondary driver of vulnerability to capture the influence of differential exposure.}, }
@article {pmid34890680, year = {2022}, author = {Voet, HEE and Van Colen, C and Vanaverbeke, J}, title = {Climate change effects on the ecophysiology and ecological functioning of an offshore wind farm artificial hard substrate community.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {810}, number = {}, pages = {152194}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152194}, pmid = {34890680}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Mytilus edulis ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In the effort towards a decarbonised future, the local effects of a proliferating offshore wind farm (OWF) industry add to and interact with the global effects of marine climate change. This study aimed to quantify potential ecophysiological effects of ocean warming and acidification and to estimate and compare the cumulative clearance potential of suspended food items by OWF epifauna under current and future climate conditions. To this end, this study combined ecophysiological responses to ocean warming and acidification of three dominant colonising species on OWF artificial hard substrates (the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, the tube-building amphipod Jassa herdmani and the plumose anemone Metridium senile). In general, mortality, respiration rate and clearance rate increased during 3- to 6-week experimental exposures across all three species, except for M. senile, who exhibited a lower clearance rate in the warmed treatments (+3 °C) and an insensitivity to lowered pH (-0.3 pH units) in terms of survival and respiration rate. Ocean warming and acidification affected growth antagonistically, with elevated temperature being beneficial for M. edulis and lowered pH being beneficial for M. senile. The seawater volume potentially cleared from suspended food particles by this AHS colonising community increased significantly, extending the affected distance around an OWF foundation by 9.2% in a future climate scenario. By using an experimental multi-stressor approach, this study thus demonstrates how ecophysiology underpins functional responses to climate change in these environments, highlighting for the first time the integrated, cascading potential effects of OWFs and climate change on the marine ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid34890677, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, M and Keenan, TF and Luo, X and Serra-Diaz, JM and Li, W and King, T and Cheng, Q and Li, Z and Andriamiarisoa, RL and Raherivelo, TNAN and Li, Y and Gong, P}, title = {Elevated CO2 moderates the impact of climate change on future bamboo distribution in Madagascar.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {810}, number = {}, pages = {152235}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152235}, pmid = {34890677}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Madagascar ; }, abstract = {The distribution of bamboo is sensitive to climate change and is also potentially affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to its C3 photosynthetic pathway. Yet the effect of CO2 in climate impact assessments of potential changes in bamboo distribution has to date been overlooked. In this study, we proposed a simple and quantitative method to incorporate the impact of atmospheric CO2 concentration into a species distribution modeling framework. To do so, we implemented 10 niche modeling algorithms with regionally downscaled climatic variables and combined field campaign observations. We assessed future climate impacts on the distribution of an economically and ecologically important and widely distributed bamboo species in Madagascar, and examined the effect of increasing CO2 on future projections. Our results suggested that future climatic changes negatively impact potential bamboo distribution in Madagascar, leading to a decline of 34.8% of climatic suitability and a decline of 63.6 ± 3.2% in suitable areas towards 2100 under RCP 8.5. However, increasing atmosphere CO2 offsets the climate impact for bamboo, and led to a smaller reduction of 19.8% in suitability and a potential distribution expansion of +111.6 ± 9.8% in newly suitable areas. We also found that the decline in climatic suitability for bamboo was related to increasing monthly potential evapotranspiration of the warmest quarter and minimum temperature of the warmest month. Conversely, the decreasing isothermality and increasing precipitation of the warmest quarter contributed to projected increase in bamboo-suitable areas. Our study suggested that elevated CO2 may mitigate the decrease in climatic suitability and increase bamboo-suitable areas, through enhancing water use efficiency and decreasing potential evapotranspiration. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the CO2 effect on future plant species distributions, and provide a mechanistic approach to do so for ecosystems constrained by water.}, }
@article {pmid34887987, year = {2021}, author = {Sithole, Z and Nyadzayo, T and Kanyowa, T and Mathieu, J and Kambarami, T and Nemaramba, M and Machaka, R and Bekele, H and Njovo, H and Gasasira, A}, title = {Enhancing capacity of Zimbabwe's health system to respond to climate change induced drought: a rapid nutritional assessment.}, journal = {The Pan African medical journal}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {113}, pmid = {34887987}, issn = {1937-8688}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Droughts ; Humans ; Infant ; *Nutrition Assessment ; Zimbabwe/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Zimbabwe experienced the negative effects of the devastating cyclone Idai which affected several districts in the country, and the drought due to low rainfall that has affected the whole country. As a result of these catastrophes, the food and nutrition security situation in the country has deteriorated. For this reason, we carried out a rapid assessment of the health facilities in 19 sampled high global acute malnutrition and high food insecurity districts from the ten provinces of Zimbabwe to ascertain the preparedness of the facilities to respond to drought effects.<br><br>METHODS: we conducted a rapid nutritional assessment in 19 purposely selected districts with highest rates of global acute malnutrition from the 10 provinces of Zimbabwe. From these districts, we selected a district hospital and a rural health facility with high number of acute malnutrition cases. We adapted and administered the WHO recommended checklist (Multi-Cluster/Sector Initial Rapid Assessment (MIRA) as the assessment tool. We used STATA to generate frequencies, and proportions.<br><br>RESULTS: about 94% (16/19) of the districts had less than 50% health workers trained to manage acute malnutrition. A total of 26% (5/19) of the district hospitals and 32% (6/19) of the primary health care facilities were not admitting according to integrated management of acute malnutrition (IMAM) protocol. Twelve districts (63%) had none of their staff trained in infant and young child feeding (IYCF), 58% (11/19) had no staff trained in growth monitoring and 63% (12/19) of the districts had no trained staff in baby friendly hospital initiative (BFHI). A total of 60% of the provinces did not have combined mineral vitamin mix stocks, 80% had no resomal stocks, 20% did not have micronutrient powder stocks and 30% had no ready to use supplementary food stocks in all their assessed facilities. Fifty percent (50%) of the health facilities were not adequately stocked with growth monitoring cards. Manicaland had the least (20%) number of health facility with a registration system to notify cases of malnutrition.<br><br>CONCLUSION: we concluded that the Zimbabwe health delivery system is not adequately prepared to respond to the effects of the current drought as most health workers had inadequate capacity to manage acute malnutrition, the nutrition surveillance was weak and inadequate stocks of commodities and anthropometric equipment was noted. Following this, health workers from six of ten provinces were trained on management of acute malnutrition, procurement of some life -saving therapeutic and supplementary foods was done. We further recommend food fortification as a long-term plan, active screening for early identification of malnutrition cases and continuous training of health workers.}, }
@article {pmid34887888, year = {2021}, author = {Poupon, V and Chakraborty, D and Stejskal, J and Konrad, H and Schueler, S and Lstibůrek, M}, title = {Accelerating Adaptation of Forest Trees to Climate Change Using Individual Tree Response Functions.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {758221}, pmid = {34887888}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {In forest tree breeding, assisted migration has been proposed to accelerate the adaptive response to climate change. Response functions are currently fitted across multiple populations and environments, enabling selections of the most appropriate seed sources for a specific reforestation site. So far, the approach has been limited to capturing adaptive variation among populations, neglecting tree-to-tree variation residing within a population. Here, we combined the response function methodology with the in-situ breeding approach, utilizing progeny trials of European larch (Larix decidua) across 21 test sites in Austria ranging from Alpine to lowland regions. We quantified intra-population genetic variance and predicted individual genetic performance along a climatic gradient. This approach can be adopted in most breeding and conservation programs, boosting the speed of adaptation under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34887822, year = {2021}, author = {Pereira, T and Freire, T}, title = {Positive Youth Development in the Context of Climate Change: A Systematic Review.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {786119}, pmid = {34887822}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change has been acknowledged as one of the most significant current threats for younger generations. However, few studies have focused on climate change impacts on youth and how they can be supported. The purpose of this systematic review is to emphasize that a developmental perspective is fundamental within the interdisciplinary studies concerning climate change. Specifically, we focus our research on how the Positive Youth Development framework may inform future approaches to promote adolescents' and young adults' well-being and engagement in the context of climate change. A systematic review was conducted following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The search comprised two databases, and a total of 13 articles were finally considered eligible for review. Data were analyzed using a narrative method. The results show that the Positive Youth Development theory is not yet directly embedded in existing studies concerning adolescents and young adults in the context of climate change, but some of its principles were identified. Examples are provided of how Positive Youth Development characteristics and constructs can enhance future research, practice, and policies. We highlight this framework as an innovative and promising approach in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34887432, year = {2021}, author = {Fanzo, JC and Downs, SM}, title = {Climate change and nutrition-associated diseases.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Disease primers}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {90}, pmid = {34887432}, issn = {2056-676X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Nutritional Status ; }, }
@article {pmid34887397, year = {2021}, author = {Stan, K and Watt, GA and Sanchez-Azofeifa, A}, title = {Financial stability in response to climate change in a northern temperate economy.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {7161}, pmid = {34887397}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change will have considerable impact on the global economy. Estimates of the economic damages due to climate change have focused on the effect of average temperature, but not the effect of other important climate variables. Related research has not explored the sub-annual economic cycles which may be impacted by climate volatility. To address these deficits, we propose a flexible, non-linear framework which includes a wide range of climate variables to estimate changes in GDP and project sub-annual economic cycle adjustments (period, amplitude, trough depth). We find that the inclusion of a more robust set of climate variables improves model performance by over 20%. Importantly, the improved model predicts an increase in GDP rather than a decrease when only temperature is considered. We also find that climate influences the sub-annual economics of all but one province in Canada. Highest stressed were the Prairie and Atlantic regions. Least stressed was the Southeastern region. Our study advances understanding of the nuances in the relationship between climate change and economic output in Canada. It also provides a method that can be applied to related economies globally to target adaptation and resilience management.}, }
@article {pmid34886568, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, X and Ma, Z and Dong, J}, title = {Quantitative Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Residents' Health Conditions with Improving Eco-Efficiency in China: A Machine Learning Perspective.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {34886568}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Efficiency ; Machine Learning ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects public health, and improving eco-efficiency means reducing the various pollutants that are the result of economic activities. This study provided empirical evidence of the quantitative impact analysis of climate change on the health conditions of residents across China due to improvements that have been made to eco-efficiency. First, the indicators that were collected present adequate graphical trends and regional differences with a priori evidence about their relationships to each other; second, the present study applied Sensitivity Evaluation with Support Vector Machines (SE-SVM) to Chinese provincial panel data, taking the Visits to Hospitals, Outpatients with Emergency Treatment, and Number of Inpatients as proxy variables for the health conditions of the residents in each area and temperature, humidity, precipitation, and sunshine as the climate change variables, simultaneously incorporating the calculated eco-efficiency with six controlling indicators; third, we compared in-sample forecasting to acquire the optimal model in order to conduct elasticity analysis. The results showed that (1) temperature, humidity, precipitation, and sunshine performed well in forecasting the health conditions of the residents and that climate change was a good forecaster for resident health conditions; (2) from the national perspective, climate change had a positive relationship with Visits to Hospitals and Outpatients with Emergency Treatment but a negative relationship with the Number of Inpatients; (3) An increase in regional eco-efficiency of 1% increase the need for Visits to Hospitals and Outpatients with Emergency Treatment by 0.2242% and 0.2688%, respectively, but decreased the Number of Inpatients by 0.6272%; (4) increasing the regional eco-efficiency did not show any positive effects for any individual region because a variety of local activities, resource endowment, and the level of medical technology available in each region played different roles. The main findings of the present study are helpful for decision makers who are trying to optimize policy formulation and implementation measures in the cross-domains of economic, environmental, and public health.}, }
@article {pmid34886422, year = {2021}, author = {Allen, EM and Munala, L and Henderson, JR}, title = {Kenyan Women Bearing the Cost of Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {34886422}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Humans ; *Intimate Partner Violence ; Kenya ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors ; Sexual Partners ; }, abstract = {Climate change-induced crises can aggravate intimate partner violence (IPV); the loss of income when weather affects the agricultural industry can exacerbate violence at home. In Kenya, climate change has increased precipitation during the rainy season and raised temperatures during the dry season, resulting in floods and droughts. For 75% of Kenyans, agricultural activities are their primary source of income. This research aims to assess patterns in IPV and severe weather events (SWE). We examined Integrated Public Use Microdata Series-Demographic Health Survey (IPUMS-DHS) data from 2008 and 2014 for IPV severity and frequency. We used Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) data along with GPS coordinates to identify SWEs (defined as any flood >10 days) by county in Kenya. Overall, women were more likely to experience IPV if their spouse worked in agriculture (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.22, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.10-1.36). There was a 60% increase in the odds of reporting IPV in counties that experienced an SWE as compared to counties that did not experience an SWE (OR = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.35-1.89). This analysis further supports the growing body of research that suggests a relationship between climate change-related weather events and violence against women.}, }
@article {pmid34886037, year = {2021}, author = {Andersson-Sköld, Y and Nordin, L and Nyberg, E and Johannesson, M}, title = {A Framework for Identification, Assessment and Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Measures for Roads and Railways.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {34886037}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Severe accidents and high costs associated with weather-related events already occur in today's climate. Unless preventive measures are taken, the costs are expected to increase in future due to ongoing climate change. However, the risk reduction measures are costly as well and may result in unwanted impacts. Therefore, it is important to identify, assess and prioritize which measures are necessary to undertake, as well as where and when these are to be undertaken. To be able to make such evaluations, robust (scientifically based), transparent and systematic assessments and valuations are required. This article describes a framework to assess the cause-and-effect relationships and how to estimate the costs and benefits as a basis to assess and prioritize measures for climate adaptation of roads and railways. The framework includes hazard identification, risk analysis and risk assessment, identification, monetary and non-monetary evaluation of possible risk reduction measures and a step regarding distribution-, goal- and sensitivity analyses. The results from applying the framework shall be used to prioritize among potential risk reduction measures as well as when to undertake them.}, }
@article {pmid34882701, year = {2021}, author = {Farr, ER and Johnson, MR and Nelson, MW and Hare, JA and Morrison, WE and Lettrich, MD and Vogt, B and Meaney, C and Howson, UA and Auster, PJ and Borsuk, FA and Brady, DC and Cashman, MJ and Colarusso, P and Grabowski, JH and Hawkes, JP and Mercaldo-Allen, R and Packer, DB and Stevenson, DK}, title = {An assessment of marine, estuarine, and riverine habitat vulnerability to climate change in the Northeast U.S.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {12}, pages = {e0260654}, pmid = {34882701}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Estuaries ; New England ; }, abstract = {Climate change is impacting the function and distribution of habitats used by marine, coastal, and diadromous species. These impacts often exacerbate the anthropogenic stressors that habitats face, particularly in the coastal environment. We conducted a climate vulnerability assessment of 52 marine, estuarine, and riverine habitats in the Northeast U.S. to develop an ecosystem-scale understanding of the impact of climate change on these habitats. The trait-based assessment considers the overall vulnerability of a habitat to climate change to be a function of two main components, sensitivity and exposure, and relies on a process of expert elicitation. The climate vulnerability ranks ranged from low to very high, with living habitats identified as the most vulnerable. Over half of the habitats examined in this study are expected to be impacted negatively by climate change, while four habitats are expected to have positive effects. Coastal habitats were also identified as highly vulnerable, in part due to the influence of non-climate anthropogenic stressors. The results of this assessment provide regional managers and scientists with a tool to inform habitat conservation, restoration, and research priorities, fisheries and protected species management, and coastal and ocean planning.}, }
@article {pmid34880228, year = {2021}, author = {Harrington, LJ and Schleussner, CF and Otto, FEL}, title = {Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {7140}, pmid = {34880228}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the 'Reasons for Concern' framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5-2 °C and very high risks between 2-3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.}, }
@article {pmid34877387, year = {2021}, author = {Lamichhane, P and Miller, KK and Hadjikakou, M and Bryan, BA}, title = {Survey data on climate change adaptation and barriers to adoption among smallholder farmers in Nepal.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {39}, number = {}, pages = {107620}, pmid = {34877387}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {The dataset presents the raw data collected through household surveys of smallholder farmers on adaptation to climatic variabilities and change in Sudurpaschim Pradesh (Far Western Province), Nepal. The dataset comprises farmers' responses on the likely determinants of adaptation decisions, actual uptake of adaptation measures, and the barriers to adaptation. We collected the data by conducting face-to-face interviews of 327 farmers using structured questionnaires in all nine districts representing the Mountain, Hill, and Terai agroecosystems in the province. We employed a stratified random sampling technique to recruit participants and interviewed them during December 2019 and March 2020. The interview methodology was approved by the Human Ethics Review Committee at Deakin University, Australia. The dataset is important for understanding the drivers of climate change adaptation and the barriers to adaptation to enhance the resilience of smallholder agriculture in far-western Nepal and can inform climate change adaptation strategies for the region and for the smallholder agroecosystems more broadly. The data are provided with this article.}, }
@article {pmid34876762, year = {2021}, author = {O'Neill, S and Pidcock, R}, title = {Introducing the Topical Collection: 'Climate change communication and the IPCC'.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {169}, number = {3-4}, pages = {19}, pmid = {34876762}, issn = {0165-0009}, }
@article {pmid34874507, year = {2021}, author = {van Nieuwenhuizen, A and Hudson, K and Chen, X and Hwong, AR}, title = {The Effects of Climate Change on Child and Adolescent Mental Health: Clinical Considerations.}, journal = {Current psychiatry reports}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {88}, pmid = {34874507}, issn = {1535-1645}, support = {R25 MH060482/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Adolescent ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Family ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Social Support ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We review recent literature on the effects of climate change on child and adolescent mental health and discuss treatment and engagement by clinicians.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change affects child and adolescent mental health in many intersecting ways, including as a social and ecological determinant of health, a threat amplifier, and a source of trauma and distress. Single extreme weather events contribute to significant negative mental health consequences; however, subacute and chronic climate events also have mental health sequelae. Furthermore, awareness of the climate crisis is associated with emotional distress. Young people with pre-existing mental illness and lacking social support may be at elevated risk for climate change-related mental health effects. Climate activism is associated with resilience and positive development, but may also be a source of increased stress, particularly for marginalized youths. Climate change can affect the mental health of children and adolescents in complex and diverse ways. Sources of coping and resilience also vary greatly between individuals. Mental health clinicians must respond to this existential crisis by addressing research gaps in this area, obtaining relevant clinical training, educating their communities, and joining and supporting young people in their advocacy efforts.}, }
@article {pmid34873823, year = {2022}, author = {Martin, G and Reilly, K and Everitt, H and Gilliland, JA}, title = {Review: The impact of climate change awareness on children's mental well-being and negative emotions - a scoping review.}, journal = {Child and adolescent mental health}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {59-72}, doi = {10.1111/camh.12525}, pmid = {34873823}, issn = {1475-357X}, support = {//Children's Health Research Institute/ ; }, mesh = {Anxiety ; Child ; Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Emotions ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a threat to children's physical health, but there are also implications for mental well-being. Additionally, children may experience negative emotional responses stemming from an overarching awareness of the imminent threats to the planet due to climate change.<br><br>METHOD: Using a scoping review, we examined the impact of climate change awareness on children's mental well-being and negative emotions. Our aim was to identify and describe the existing literature and highlight priorities for future research. Three specific objectives guided the review: (1) to identify and provide an overview of research regarding the impact of climate change awareness on children's mental well-being and negative emotions; (2) to summarize and clarify the terminology related to climate change awareness and children's mental well-being and negative emotions; and (3) to make recommendations for areas of future research.<br><br>RESULTS: Thirty-three articles were included in a narrative synthesis. Many articles were reviews or editorials/commentaries. Of the empirical research, most were from Europe, North America, and Australia. The articles emphasized a large range of negative emotions that children felt about climate change, with anxiety and worry being the most researched and discussed.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The research on the impact of awareness of climate change on children's mental well-being and negative emotions is in its early phases. Efforts are needed to advance conceptual clarity and operationalize concepts. Additionally, there is a need for research into the impact of climate change awareness on children's mental well-being and negative emotions among a greater diversity of people and places. Existing studies provide an encouraging basis from which to develop future research.}, }
@article {pmid34873793, year = {2022}, author = {Beillouin, D and Cardinael, R and Berre, D and Boyer, A and Corbeels, M and Fallot, A and Feder, F and Demenois, J}, title = {A global overview of studies about land management, land-use change, and climate change effects on soil organic carbon.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {1690-1702}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15998}, pmid = {34873793}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Major drivers of gains or losses in soil organic carbon (SOC) include land management, land-use change, and climate change. Thousands of original studies have focused on these drivers of SOC change and are now compiled in a growing number of meta-analyses. To critically assess the research efforts in this domain, we retrieved and characterized 192 meta-analyses of SOC stocks or concentrations. These meta-analyses comprise more than 13,200 original studies conducted from 1910 to 2020 in 150 countries. First, we show that, despite a growing number of studies over time, the geographical coverage of studies is limited. For example, the effect of land management, land-use change, and climate change on SOC has been only occasionally studied in North and Central Africa, and in the Middle East and Central Asia. Second, the meta-analyses investigated a limited number of land management practices, mostly mineral fertilization, organic amendments, and tillage. Third, the meta-analyses demonstrated relatively low quality and transparency. Lastly, we discuss the mismatch between the increasing number of studies and the need for more local, reusable, and diversified knowledge on how to preserve high SOC stocks or restore depleted SOC stocks.}, }
@article {pmid34873033, year = {2021}, author = {Cheng, Y and Miller, MJ and Zhang, D and Xiong, Y and Hao, Y and Jia, C and Cai, T and Li, SH and Johansson, US and Liu, Y and Chang, Y and Song, G and Qu, Y and Lei, F}, title = {Parallel genomic responses to historical climate change and high elevation in East Asian songbirds.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {50}, pages = {}, pmid = {34873033}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Altitude ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Asia, Eastern ; Genetic Variation ; Genome ; *Genomics ; Songbirds/*genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Parallel evolution can be expected among closely related taxa exposed to similar selective pressures. However, parallelism is typically stronger at the phenotypic level, while genetic solutions to achieve these phenotypic similarities may differ. For polygenic traits, the availability of standing genetic variation (i.e., heterozygosity) may influence such genetic nonparallelism. Here, we examine the extent to which high-elevation adaptation is parallel-and whether the level of parallelism is affected by heterozygosity-by analyzing genomes of 19 Paridae species distributed across East Asia with a dramatic east-west elevation gradient. We find that western highlands endemic parids have consistently lower levels of heterozygosity-likely the result of late-Pleistocene demographic contraction-than do parids found exclusively in eastern lowlands, which remained unglaciated during the late Pleistocene. Three widespread species (east to west) have high levels of heterozygosity similar to that observed in eastern species, although their western populations are less variable than eastern ones. Comparing genomic responses to extreme environments of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, we find that the most differentiated genomic regions between each high-elevation taxon and its low-elevation relative are significantly enriched for genes potentially related to the oxygen transport cascade and/or thermogenesis. Despite no parallelism at particular genes, high similarity in gene function is found among comparisons. Furthermore, parallelism is not higher in more heterozygous widespread parids than in highland endemics. Thus, in East Asian parids, parallel functional response to extreme elevation appears to rely on different genes, with differences in heterozygosity having no effect on the degree of genetic parallelism.}, }
@article {pmid34869905, year = {2021}, author = {Katzman, JG and Herring, D and Schramm, P and Tomedi, L and Maury, JM and Kalishman, S and Kazhe-Dominguez, B and Liu, J and Martin, C and Arora, S}, title = {Climate Change and Human Health ECHO: Global Telementoring for Health Professionals.}, journal = {Journal of medical education and curricular development}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {23821205211061019}, pmid = {34869905}, issn = {2382-1205}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To increase the knowledge and communication skills of health professionals related to climate change and human health (CCHH).<br><br>METHODS: From February to April 2021, Project ECHO (Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes) created an 8-week, synchronous and virtual, CCHH ECHO telementoring series for health professionals. Didactics, simulated cases, and climate change tools were used to educate the interprofessional group of participants.<br><br>RESULTS: During this CCHH ECHO pilot series, 625 unique participants represented 45 US states and 25 countries. The participants reported that they increased their knowledge, skills, and communication techniques regarding climate change and health.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The human health effects of climate change is an emerging field, and increasing knowledge and communication skills among health practitioners is of critical importance. The CCHH ECHO is one potential platform that may reach a diverse community of health professionals globally due to the diffusion and demonopolization of knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid34865587, year = {2021}, author = {van Bergen, L and Birch, M}, title = {Climate change, health and armed conflict: the links that still need making.}, journal = {Medicine, conflict, and survival}, volume = {37}, number = {4}, pages = {257-259}, doi = {10.1080/13623699.2021.2007570}, pmid = {34865587}, issn = {1362-3699}, mesh = {Armed Conflicts ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Research ; }, }
@article {pmid34863762, year = {2022}, author = {Sulukan, E and Baran, A and Şenol, O and Yildirim, S and Mavi, A and Ceyhun, HA and Toraman, E and Ceyhun, SB}, title = {The synergic toxicity of temperature increases and nanopolystrene on zebrafish brain implies that global warming may worsen the current risk based on plastic debris.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {808}, number = {}, pages = {152092}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152092}, pmid = {34863762}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Brain ; Global Warming ; *Plastics/toxicity ; Temperature ; *Zebrafish ; }, abstract = {Global warming and plastic pollution are among the most important environmental problems today. Unfortunately, our world is warming more than expected and biological life, especially in the oceans, has come to the limit of the struggle for survival with the nano-scale plastic pollution that is constantly released from the main material. In this study, the synergic effect of one-degree temperature increase (28, 29, 30 °C) and 100 nm size polystyrene plastic nanoparticles on circadian rhythm, brain damage and metabolomics in zebrafish were investigated in an environment where temperature control with 0.05-degree precision is provided. A temperature increase of 1°, together with nanoplastic exposure, affected the circadian rhythm in zebrafish, caused damage to the brain and caused significant changes in the intensity of a total of 18 metabolites in different pathways. It was also detected Raman signals of polystyrene in the brain homogenate. As a consequence, it is suggested that one degree of temperature increase pave the way for degeneration in the brain by disrupting some metabolic pathways, thereby significantly increasing the negative effects of nano-plastic on behavior.}, }
@article {pmid34863369, year = {2022}, author = {Stein, PJS and Stein, MA}, title = {Climate change and the right to health of people with disabilities.}, journal = {The Lancet. Global health}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {e24-e25}, doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00542-8}, pmid = {34863369}, issn = {2214-109X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disabled Persons ; Humans ; *Right to Health ; }, }
@article {pmid34862513, year = {2022}, author = {Ebi, KL}, title = {Managing climate change risks is imperative for human health.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Nephrology}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {74-75}, pmid = {34862513}, issn = {1759-507X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {In 2021, extreme weather and climate events caused preventable injuries, illnesses and deaths. A clear imperative exists to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the sustainability and climate resilience of health systems. Countries and communities must implement strategies to mitigate climate change and invest in health systems to protect their populations.}, }
@article {pmid34862161, year = {2021}, author = {Smith, R}, title = {Australia, a laggard in responding to climate change, produces an impressive report on climate change and health.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {375}, number = {}, pages = {n3000}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.n3000}, pmid = {34862161}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Consensus ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Fires ; Geography ; Humans ; *Public Policy ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid34861621, year = {2021}, author = {Constantino, SM and Weber, EU}, title = {Decision-making under the deep uncertainty of climate change: The psychological and political agency of narratives.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {151-159}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.11.001}, pmid = {34861621}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Cognition ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Fossil fuel-based development has resulted in climate change and biodiversity loss, threatening the ability of the biosphere to sustain civilization. However, despite the transformative change needed to address climate change, the complexity inherent in dynamic, coupled social-ecological systems can create challenges that stifle mitigation and adaptation efforts. For example, increasing urbanization can mask information about the local and distal ecological impacts of unsustainable consumption patterns. Diverse actors, powerful vested interests in the status quo, and differential impacts of climate change create inevitable tradeoffs and conflicts among stakeholders. The multitude of plausible future scenarios and their dependence on actions taken today create challenges for planning, governance, and collective action. While there is a long history in psychology and economics of studying decision-making under uncertainty, we argue that the deep uncertainty inherent in climate change cannot be easily understood using these same paradigms. In this context, narratives-stories about how the world works, what the future will look like, and our own role in this process-can extend cognition, creating shared knowledge across space and time, and shape our beliefs, values and actions in the face of tremendous uncertainty. Narratives thus have political and psychological agency and can reinforce or challenge existing power relations and trajectories. Here, we review some of this literature in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34860301, year = {2021}, author = {Cantin, G and Ducrot, A and Funatsu, BM}, title = {Mathematical modeling of forest ecosystems by a reaction-diffusion-advection system: impacts of climate change and deforestation.}, journal = {Journal of mathematical biology}, volume = {83}, number = {6-7}, pages = {66}, pmid = {34860301}, issn = {1432-1416}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {We present an innovative mathematical model for studying the dynamics of forest ecosystems. Our model is determined by an age-structured reaction-diffusion-advection system in which the roles of the water resource and of the atmospheric activity are considered. The model is abstract but constructed in such a manner that it can be applied to real-world forest areas; thus it allows to establish an infinite number of scenarios for testing the robustness and resilience of forest ecosystems to anthropic actions or to climate change. We establish the well-posedness of the reaction-diffusion-advection model by using the method of characteristics and by reducing the initial system to a reaction-diffusion problem. The existence and stability of stationary homogeneous and stationary heterogeneous solutions are investigated, so as to prove that the model is able to reproduce relevant equilibrium states of the forest ecosystem. We show that the model fits with the principle of almost uniform precipitation over forested areas and of exponential decrease of precipitation over deforested areas. Furthermore, we present a selection of numerical simulations for an abstract forest ecosystem, in order to analyze the stability of the steady states, to investigate the impact of anthropic perturbations such as deforestation and to explore the effects of climate change on the dynamics of the forest ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid34860280, year = {2022}, author = {Ghosh, A and Sen, A and Dutta, K and Ghosh, P}, title = {Falling "fortresses": Unlocking Governance Entanglements and Shifting Knowledge Paradigms to Counter Climate Change Threats in Biodiversity Conservation.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {69}, number = {2}, pages = {305-322}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-021-01552-0}, pmid = {34860280}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Biodiversity conservation is facing unprecedented challenges at the intersection of rapidly changing climates, widespread ecosystem degradation under the influence of global warming and resultant human tragedies over livelihood, habitation, adaptation and coping needs. These challenges are more acute across biodiversity hotspots in the Global South. This study disentangles the complex interplay to propose alternative paradigms of governance and policy thinking necessary for sustainable biodiversity conservation. Climate change impacts are exposing critical deficiencies of 'scientific forest management' pursued for over a century. For example, recurrent disasters and ecological shifts are increasingly obfuscating cognitive and physical boundaries between the reserve forest and human habitations; putting additional stress on livelihoods which in turn escalate pressures on the forest commons and fuel further conflicts between conservation governance and local communities. Instead of assisting in adaptation, the existing conservation governance mechanisms are producing further conflicts between humans and non-humans; livelihoods and conservation; disaster management and development. Conducted in the Sundarbans Biosphere Reserve -world's largest mangrove forest ecosystem and a climate change hotspot located along the Bay of Bengal across India and Bangladesh -the study finds an urgent need of rethinking and recalibrating biodiversity conservation in the times of climate change. However, institutional and market-based approaches such as promoting ecotourism or mangrove plantations may have little impact in this regard, the study finds. Instead, integrating cultural ecosystem services and co-producing knowledge will be critical to tackle the entanglements of climate change and its impacts on local lives, livelihoods and biodiversity conservation.}, }
@article {pmid34859530, year = {2022}, author = {Preston, JC and Wooliver, R and Driscoll, H and Coughlin, A and Sheth, SN}, title = {Spatial variation in high temperature-regulated gene expression predicts evolution of plasticity with climate change in the scarlet monkeyflower.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {31}, number = {4}, pages = {1254-1268}, pmid = {34859530}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {P20 GM103449/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Climate Change ; Gene Expression ; Humans ; *Mimulus/genetics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {A major way that organisms can adapt to changing environmental conditions is by evolving increased or decreased phenotypic plasticity. In the face of current global warming, more attention is being paid to the role of plasticity in maintaining fitness as abiotic conditions change over time. However, given that temporal data can be challenging to acquire, a major question is whether evolution in plasticity across space can predict adaptive plasticity across time. In growth chambers simulating two thermal regimes, we generated transcriptome data for western North American scarlet monkeyflowers (Mimulus cardinalis) collected from different latitudes and years (2010 and 2017) to test hypotheses about how plasticity in gene expression is responding to increases in temperature, and if this pattern is consistent across time and space. Supporting the genetic compensation hypothesis, individuals whose progenitors were collected from the warmer-origin northern 2017 descendant cohort showed lower thermal plasticity in gene expression than their cooler-origin northern 2010 ancestors. This was largely due to a change in response at the warmer (40°C) rather than cooler (20°C) treatment. A similar pattern of reduced plasticity, largely due to a change in response at 40°C, was also found for the cooler-origin northern versus the warmer-origin southern population from 2017. Our results demonstrate that reduced phenotypic plasticity can evolve with warming and that spatial and temporal changes in plasticity predict one another.}, }
@article {pmid34858443, year = {2021}, author = {Guan, B and Gao, J and Chen, W and Gong, X and Ge, G}, title = {The Effects of Climate Change on Landscape Connectivity and Genetic Clusters in a Small Subtropical and Warm-Temperate Tree.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {671336}, pmid = {34858443}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change is a great threat to global biodiversity and has resulted in serious ecological consequences. Although the potential effects of climate change on genetic diversity have recently received much research attention, little research has focused on the impacts of climate change on genetic connectivity and the relationship between climate stability and genetic divergence. Here, we combined population connectivity with genetic data to predict the impacts of future climate change on genetic connectivity. Coupled with climatic variables and genetic data, we used POPS software to create spatially explicit simulations and predict the dynamics in genetic clusters in response to climate changes. A generalized additive model was employed to test the correlation between climatic stability and genetic diversification. Our findings indicated that a reduction in species distribution due to severe climate change would lead to a substantial loss of genetic connectivity. More severe future climatic scenarios would likely cause greater loss of variability or more distinct homogenization in genetic variation of species. Relatively low interpolated genetic distances are generally associated with areas of greater losses in climatic suitability from the present to the future. The displacement of climatic genetic clusters will challenge species adaptation to future climate change because of the loss of fundamental evolutionary potential. The persistence capacity of plant species may be weakened in the face of future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34856039, year = {2022}, author = {Wu, Q and Miles, DB and Richard, M and Rutschmann, A and Clobert, J}, title = {Intraspecific diversity alters the relationship between climate change and parasitism in a polymorphic ectotherm.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {1301-1314}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16018}, pmid = {34856039}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Female ; *Lizards ; *Parasites ; }, abstract = {Climate-modulated parasitism is driven by a range of factors, yet the spatial and temporal variability of this relationship has received scant attention in wild vertebrate hosts. Moreover, most prior studies overlooked the intraspecific differences across host morphotypes, which impedes a full understanding of the climate-parasitism relationship. In the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara), females exhibit three colour morphs: yellow (Y-females), orange (O-females) and mixed (mixture of yellow and orange, M-females). Zootoca vivipara is also infested with an ectoparasite (Ophionyssus mites). We therefore used this model system to examine the intraspecific response of hosts to parasitism under climate change. We found infestation probability to differ across colour morphs at both spatial (10 sites) and temporal (20 years) scales: M-females had lower parasite infestations than Y- and O-females at lower temperatures, but became more susceptible to parasites as temperature increased. The advantage of M-females at low temperatures was counterbalanced by their higher mortality rates thereafter, which suggests a morph-dependent trade-off between resistance to parasites and host survival. Furthermore, significant interactions between colour morphs and temperature indicate that the relationship between parasite infestations and climate warming was contingent on host morphotypes. Parasite infestations increased with temperature for most morphs, but displayed morph-specific rates. Finally, infested M-females had higher reductions in survival rates than infested Y- or O-females, which implies a potential loss of intraspecific diversity within populations as parasitism and temperatures rise. Overall, we found parasitism increases with warming temperatures, but this relationship is modulated by host morphotypes and an interaction with temperature. We suggest that epidemiological models incorporate intraspecific diversity within species for better understanding the dynamics of wildlife diseases under climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid34855170, year = {2022}, author = {Gul, A and Chandio, AA and Siyal, SA and Rehman, A and Xiumin, W}, title = {How climate change is impacting the major yield crops of Pakistan? an exploration from long- and short-run estimation.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {18}, pages = {26660-26674}, pmid = {34855170}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Fertilizers ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {This research attempts to evaluate the linkage among climatic change factors such as average temperature and rainfall patterns and non-climatic factors such as the area under major yield crops, fertilizer consumption, and formal credit on major food crop yield from 1985 to 2016 in Pakistan. For the first step, we checked the stationarity of the series by utilizing the unit root tests. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was employed to identify the linkages between variables after verifying the properties over a specific period of time. The consequences of this study confirmed the long-run association between climatic and non-climatic factors to the major food crop yield in Pakistan. Furthermore, the outcomes of the study revealed that temperature has a diverse impact on major food crop yields. Whereas, the area under major food crops, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, and formal credit have a positive impact on major food crop yield in Pakistan. For the second step, we used the Granger causality test to verify the causal linkage for the variables. The outcomes reveal a significant effect of climatic and non-climatic factors on major food crop yield. The bidirectional causality causal associations are found to be significant among variables including average temperature, fertilizer consumption, and formal credit disbursement. The empirical results further indicated that major food crop yields are more affected by climatic factors such as average temperature as compared to non-climatic factors. Based on the study findings, few recommendations are made to cope with factors of climate change. Invent such agricultural-specific adaptation policies for farmers which possess the ability and resilience to tackle climate change. Research and development in agriculture should focus on major varieties of food crops that can endure high temperatures. The agriculture industry will be able to sustain long-term production and distribution efficiency attributable to these strategies.}, }
@article {pmid34854175, year = {2022}, author = {Coleman, RA and Chee, YE and Bond, NR and Weeks, A and Griffiths, J and Serena, M and Williams, GA and Walsh, CJ}, title = {Understanding and managing the interactive impacts of growth in urban land use and climate change on freshwater biota: A case study using the platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {1287-1300}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16015}, pmid = {34854175}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biota ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Platypus ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Globally, urban expansion and climate change interact to threaten stream ecosystems and are accelerating the loss of aquatic biodiversity. Waterway managers urgently need tools to understand the potential combined impacts of urbanization and climate change and to identify effective mitigating management interventions for protecting freshwater biota. We address this challenge using the semi-aquatic mammal the platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) as a focal species. We developed high-resolution environmental spatial data for stream networks and spatially explicit habitat suitability models (HSMs) to explore the impact of threats and to identify the combination of management actions most likely to maintain or improve habitat suitability over the next 50 years in greater Melbourne, Australia. We developed and evaluated platypus HSMs (males-and-females and females-only) including validation using an independent environmental DNA data set. Platypus occurred more commonly in larger, cooler streams with greater catchment-weighted discharge, following periods of greater stream flow. They were positively associated with near-stream forest cover and negatively associated with annual air temperature and urban stormwater runoff. Extensive reductions in suitable platypus habitat are predicted to occur under urbanization and climate change scenarios, with the greatest threat expected from reduced streamflows. This emphasizes the importance of maintaining flow regimes as part of conserving platypus in the region; however, substantial additional benefit is predicted by concurrent riparian revegetation and urban stormwater management efforts (that also have the potential to contribute to the streamflow objectives). Provision of adequate streamflows in a future with increasing water demands and water security requirements will likely require creative integrated water management solutions. Our high-resolution stream network and HSMs have allowed predictions of potential range-shifts due to urban expansion and climate change impacts at management-relevant scales and at the whole-of-landscape scale. This has enabled systematic strategic planning, priority action planning and target setting in strategic policy development.}, }
@article {pmid34854170, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, J and Liu, D}, title = {Vegetation green-up date is more sensitive to permafrost degradation than climate change in spring across the northern permafrost region.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {1569-1582}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16011}, pmid = {34854170}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Permafrost ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global climate change substantially influences vegetation spring phenology, that is, green-up date (GUD), in the northern permafrost region. Changes in GUD regulate ecosystem carbon uptake, further feeding back to local and regional climate systems. Extant studies mainly focused on the direct effects of climate factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and insolation; however, the responses of GUD to permafrost degradation caused by warming (i.e., indirect effects) remain elusive yet. In this study, we examined the impacts of permafrost degradation on GUD by analyzing the long-term trend of satellite-based GUD in relation to permafrost degradation measured by the start of thaw (SOT) and active layer thickness (ALT). We found significant trends of advancing GUD, SOT, and thickening ALT (p < 0.05), with a spatially averaged slope of -2.1 days decade[-1] , -4.1 days decade[-1] , and +1.1 cm decade[-1] , respectively. Using partial correlation analyses, we found more than half of the regions with significantly negative correlations between spring temperature and GUD became nonsignificant after considering permafrost degradation. GUD exhibits dominant-positive (37.6% vs. 0.6%) and dominant-negative (1.8% vs. 35.1%) responses to SOT and ALT, respectively. Earlier SOT and thicker ALT would enhance soil water availability, thus alleviating water stress for vegetation green-up. Based on sensitivity analyses, permafrost degradation was the dominant factor controlling GUD variations in 41.7% of the regions, whereas only 19.6% of the regions were dominated by other climatic factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and insolation). Our results indicate that GUDs were more sensitive to permafrost degradation than direct climate change in spring among different vegetation types, especially in high latitudes. This study reveals the significant impacts of permafrost degradation on vegetation GUD and highlights the importance of permafrost status in better understanding spring phenological responses to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34854165, year = {2022}, author = {Boulanger, Y and Pascual, J and Bouchard, M and D'Orangeville, L and Périé, C and Girardin, MP}, title = {Multi-model projections of tree species performance in Quebec, Canada under future climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {5}, pages = {1884-1902}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16014}, pmid = {34854165}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Quebec ; *Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {Many modelling approaches have been developed to project climate change impacts on forests. By analysing 'comparable' yet distinct variables (e.g. productivity, growth, dominance, biomass, etc.) through different structures, parameterizations and assumptions, models can yield different outcomes to rather similar initial questions. This variability can lead to some confusion for forest managers when developing strategies to adapt forest management to climate change. In this study, we standardized results from seven different models (Habitat suitability, trGam, StandLEAP, Quebec Landscape Dynamics, PICUS, LANDIS-II and LPJ-LMfire) to provide a simple and comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty and consensus in future performance (decline, status quo, improvement) for six tree species in Quebec under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Despite a large diversity of model types, we found a high level of agreement (73.1%) in projected species' performance across species, regions, scenarios and time periods. Low agreements in model outcomes resulted from small dissensions among models. Model agreement was much higher for cold-tolerant species (up to 99.9%), especially in southernmost forest regions and under RCP 8.5, indicating that these species are especially sensitive to increased climate forcing in the southern part of their distribution range. Lower agreement was found for thermophilous species (sugar maple, yellow birch) in boreal regions under RCP 8.5 mostly as a result of the way the different models are handling natural disturbances (e.g. wildfires) and lags in the response of populations (forest inertia or migration capability) to climate change. Agreement was slightly higher under high anthropogenic climate forcing, suggesting that important thresholds in species-specific performance might be crossed if radiative forcing reach values as high as those projected under RCP 8.5. We expect that strong agreement among models despite their different assumptions, predictors and structure should inspire the development of forest management strategies to be better adapted to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34852431, year = {2022}, author = {de Wergifosse, L and André, F and Goosse, H and Boczon, A and Cecchini, S and Ciceu, A and Collalti, A and Cools, N and D'Andrea, E and De Vos, B and Hamdi, R and Ingerslev, M and Knudsen, MA and Kowalska, A and Leca, S and Matteucci, G and Nord-Larsen, T and Sanders, TG and Schmitz, A and Termonia, P and Vanguelova, E and Van Schaeybroeck, B and Verstraeten, A and Vesterdal, L and Jonard, M}, title = {Simulating tree growth response to climate change in structurally diverse oak and beech forests.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {806}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {150422}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150422}, pmid = {34852431}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Fagus ; Forests ; *Quercus ; Trees ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to simulate oak and beech forest growth under various scenarios of climate change and to evaluate how the forest response depends on site properties and particularly on stand characteristics using the individual process-based model HETEROFOR. First, this model was evaluated on a wide range of site conditions. We used data from 36 long-term forest monitoring plots to initialize, calibrate, and evaluate HETEROFOR. This evaluation showed that HETEROFOR predicts individual tree radial growth and height increment reasonably well under different growing conditions when evaluated on independent sites. In our simulations under constant CO2 concentration ([CO2]cst) for the 2071-2100 period, climate change induced a moderate net primary production (NPP) gain in continental and mountainous zones and no change in the oceanic zone. The NPP changes were negatively affected by air temperature during the vegetation period and by the annual rainfall decrease. To a lower extent, they were influenced by soil extractable water reserve and stand characteristics. These NPP changes were positively affected by longer vegetation periods and negatively by drought for beech and larger autotrophic respiration costs for oak. For both species, the NPP gain was much larger with rising CO2 concentration ([CO2]var) mainly due to the CO2 fertilisation effect. Even if the species composition and structure had a limited influence on the forest response to climate change, they explained a large part of the NPP variability (44% and 34% for [CO2]cst and [CO2]var, respectively) compared to the climate change scenario (5% and 29%) and the inter-annual climate variability (20% and 16%). This gives the forester the possibility to act on the productivity of broadleaved forests and prepare them for possible adverse effects of climate change by reinforcing their resilience.}, }
@article {pmid34849502, year = {2021}, author = {Tobías, A}, title = {Electricity Price, Heat and Risk of Climate Poverty in Spain's Current Climate Change Scenario.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Europe}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {100271}, pmid = {34849502}, issn = {2666-7762}, }
@article {pmid34847437, year = {2021}, author = {Bollinger, E and Zubrod, JP and Lai, FY and Ahrens, L and Filker, S and Lorke, A and Bundschuh, M}, title = {Antibiotics as a silent driver of climate change? A case study investigating methane production in freshwater sediments.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {228}, number = {}, pages = {113025}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2021.113025}, pmid = {34847437}, issn = {1090-2414}, abstract = {Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2) and is inter alia produced in natural freshwater ecosystems. Given the rise in CH4 emissions from natural sources, researchers are investigating environmental factors and climate change feedbacks to explain this increment. Despite being omnipresent in freshwaters, knowledge on the influence of chemical stressors of anthropogenic origin (e.g., antibiotics) on methanogenesis is lacking. To address this knowledge gap, we incubated freshwater sediment under anaerobic conditions with a mixture of five antibiotics at four levels (from 0 to 5000 µg/L) for 42 days. Weekly measurements of CH4 and CO2 in the headspace, as well as their compound-specific δ[13]C, showed that the CH4 production rate was increased by up to 94% at 5000 µg/L and up to 29% at field-relevant concentrations (i.e., 50 µg/L). Metabarcoding of the archaeal and eubacterial 16S rRNA gene showed that effects of antibiotics on bacterial community level (i.e., species composition) may partially explain the observed differences in CH4 production rates. Despite the complications of transferring experimental CH4 production rates to realistic field conditions, the study indicated that chemical stressors contribute to the emissions of greenhouse gases by affecting the methanogenesis in freshwaters.}, }
@article {pmid34846762, year = {2022}, author = {Anderson-Teixeira, KJ and Belair, EP}, title = {Effective forest-based climate change mitigation requires our best science.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {1200-1203}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.16008}, pmid = {34846762}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Policy ; }, abstract = {California's Cap-and-Trade Program sets a limit on the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions and allows a portion of excess emissions to be offset through purchase of credits for climate benefits accrued elsewhere. Badgley et al. (2021, Global Change Biology, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15943) describe how the use of mean forest carbon stocks from ecological supersections can create perverse incentives for project developers, potentially leading to over-crediting and nonadditional offsets. Carbon markets remain a valuable tool in combating climate change, but ensuring projects' additionality is of critical importance to effective carbon mitigation. Badgley's article should serve as a call to action to redouble efforts at integrating the latest carbon science into effective and timely policy solutions.}, }
@article {pmid34845254, year = {2021}, author = {Tiwari, P and Bhattacharya, P and Rawat, GS and Talukdar, G}, title = {Equilibrium in soil respiration across a climosequence indicates its resilience to climate change in a glaciated valley, western Himalaya.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {23038}, pmid = {34845254}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Soil respiration (SR), a natural phenomenon, emits ten times more CO2 from land than anthropogenic sources. It is predicted that climate warming would increase SR in most ecosystems and give rise to positive feedback. However, there are uncertainties associated with this prediction primarily due to variability in the relationship of SR with its two significant drivers, soil temperature and moisture. Accounting for the variabilities, we use a climosequence in Himalaya with a temperature gradient of ~ 2.1 °C to understand the variations in the response of SR and its temperature sensitivity to climate change. Results indicate an equilibrium in SR ranging from 1.92 to 2.42 µmol m[-2] s[-1] across an elevation gradient (3300-3900 m) despite its increased sensitivity to temperature (Q10) from 0.47 to 4.97. Additionally, moisture reduction towards lower elevation weakens the temperature-SR relationship. Finally, soil organic carbon shows similarities at all the elevations, indicating a net-zero CO2 flux across the climosequence. The findings suggest that as the climate warms in this region, the temperature sensitivity of SR reduces drastically due to moisture reduction, limiting any change in SR and soil organic carbon to rising temperature. We introduce an equilibrium mechanism in this study which indicates the resilient nature of SR to climate change and will aid in enhancing the accuracy of climate change impact projections.}, }
@article {pmid34844941, year = {2021}, author = {Roy, M}, title = {Greater action on climate change by physicians needed.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {193}, number = {47}, pages = {E1818}, pmid = {34844941}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Physicians ; }, }
@article {pmid34844054, year = {2022}, author = {Padhy, SR and Bhattacharyya, P and Dash, PK and Nayak, SK and Parida, SP and Baig, MJ and Mohapatra, T}, title = {Elucidation of dominant energy metabolic pathways of methane, sulphur and nitrogen in respect to mangrove-degradation for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {303}, number = {}, pages = {114151}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114151}, pmid = {34844054}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Metabolic Networks and Pathways ; *Methane ; Nitrogen ; Soil ; Sulfur ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Mangroves play a key role in ecosystem balancing and climate change mitigation. It acts as a source and sink of methane (CH4), a major greenhouse gas responsible for climate change. Energy metabolic pathways of methane production (methanogenesis) and oxidation (methanotrophy) are directly driven by sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) metabolism and salinity in coastal wetlands. To investigate, how mangrove-degradations, affect the source-sink behaviour of CH4; the pathways of CH4, S and N were studied through whole-genome metagenomic approach. Soil samples were collected from degraded and undisturbed mangrove systems in Sundarban, India. Structural and functional microbial diversities (KEGG pathways) of CH4, S and N metabolism were analysed and correlated with labile carbon pools and physico-chemical properties of soil. Overall, the acetoclastic pathway of methanogenesis was dominant. However, the relative proportion of conversion of CO2 to CH4 was more in degraded mangroves. Methane oxidation was higher in undisturbed mangroves and the serine pathway was dominant. After serine, the ribulose monophosphate pathway of CH4 oxidation was dominant in degraded mangrove, while the xylulose monophosphate pathway was dominant in undisturbed site as it is more tolerant to salinity and higher pH. The assimilatory pathway (AMP) of S-metabolism was dominant in both systems. But in AMP pathway, adenosine triphosphate sulfurylase enzyme reads were higher in degraded mangrove, while NADPH-sulfite reductase abundance was higher in undisturbed mangrove due to higher salinity, and pH. In N-metabolism, the denitrification pathway was predominant in degraded sites, whereas the dissimilatory nitrate reduction pathway was dominant in undisturbed mangroves. The relative ratios of sulphur reducing bacteria (SRB): methanogens were higher in degraded mangrove; however, methanotrophs:methanogens was higher in undisturbed mangrove indicated lower source and greater sink capacity of CH4 in the system. Microbial manipulation in mangrove-rhizosphere for regulating major energy metabolic pathways of methane could open-up a new window of climate change mitigation in coastal wetlands.}, }
@article {pmid34840601, year = {2021}, author = {Barnett, J and Graham, S and Quinn, T and Adger, WN and Butler, C}, title = {Three ways social identity shapes climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {16}, number = {12}, pages = {124029}, pmid = {34840601}, issn = {1748-9326}, abstract = {Adaptation to climate change is inescapably influenced by processes of social identity-how people perceive themselves, others, and their place in the world around them. Yet there is sparse evidence into the specific ways in which identity processes shape adaptation planning and responses. This paper proposes three key ways to understand the relationship between identity formation and adaptation processes: (a) how social identities change in response to perceived climate change risks and threats; (b) how identity change may be an objective of adaptation; and (c) how identity issues can constrain or enable adaptive action. It examines these three areas of focus through a synthesis of evidence on community responses to flooding and subsequent policy responses in Somerset county, UK and the Gippsland East region in Australia, based on indepth longitudinal data collected among those experiencing and enacting adaptation. The results show that adaptation policies are more likely to be effective when they give individuals confidence in the continuity of their in-groups, enhance the self-esteem of these groups, and develop their sense of self-efficacy. These processes of identity formation and evolution are therefore central to individual and collective responses to climate risks.}, }
@article {pmid34840154, year = {2021}, author = {Jameton, A and Pierce, J}, title = {Can Clinical Ethics Survive Climate Change?.}, journal = {Perspectives in biology and medicine}, volume = {64}, number = {4}, pages = {511-540}, doi = {10.1353/pbm.2021.0039}, pmid = {34840154}, issn = {1529-8795}, mesh = {Bioethical Issues ; *Bioethics ; Climate Change ; Ethics ; *Ethics, Clinical ; Humans ; Morals ; }, abstract = {The Ethics of Environmentally Responsible Health Care (2004) argued that the obligation to protect nature must be a core principle of bioethics and that the environmental harm of health-care practices should be taken seriously. In the two decades since, the accelerating pace of climate change and environmental decline has strengthened the moral case for reducing the environmental costs of health care. Nevertheless, mainstream bioethics has until recently neglected these vital issues. In response, a field of clinical environmental bioethics is emerging that applies concepts and measures of sustainability to such key clinical ethical issues as humanizing technology, setting limits, caring for the dying, respecting patient wishes, and allocating resources justly. Bioethical analysis of these and other issues can support just and humane health-care adaptation to climate change. Health-care adaptation in turn plays an important role in helping communities and nations adapt to the inevitable forward march of climate change. This essay offers two recommendations: (1) establish a climate transition commission for health-care adaptation to climate change with bioethics participation, and (2) strengthen advocacy for health-care reform by uniting it with climate activism.}, }
@article {pmid34839397, year = {2021}, author = {Akintuyi, AO and Fasona, MJ and Ayeni, AO and Soneye, ASO}, title = {Land use/land cover and climate change interaction in the derived savannah region of Nigeria.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {12}, pages = {848}, pmid = {34839397}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Nigeria ; }, abstract = {The interaction of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change, to a large extent, involves anthropogenic activities. This study was carried out in the derived savannah of Nigeria, a delicate, transition ecological zone between the rainforest and savanna zones where the interaction of LULC and climate change could be well appreciated. Using the remote sensing and GIS, Land Change Modeler (LCM), and multivariate geostatistics tools, the study evaluated coupled interaction between LULC and climate change and assessed the changes in the land use/land cover patterns for the periods 1972, 1986, 2002, and 2019. It also evaluated the present (1941-2019) and future (2020-2050) variability in rainfall patterns and made an attempt to predict the interaction between LULC and climate change in future climate. The results suggest that the urban (built-up) area, waterbody, woodland, and farmland experienced a rapid increase of about 2,400%, 583%, 277%, and 32%, respectively, while the forest cover lost about 39% between 1972 and 2019. Furthermore, the study predicted 46% and 29% reduction in the forested area between 2002 and 2050 and 2019 and 2050, respectively. The study concludes that rainfall will be the major driver of LULC change within the study area under a future climate.}, }
@article {pmid34838544, year = {2022}, author = {Yu, Y and Chen, L and Xiao, Y and Chang, CC and Zhi, X and Shen, Z}, title = {New framework for assessing urban stormwater management measures in the context of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {813}, number = {}, pages = {151901}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151901}, pmid = {34838544}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Non-Point Source Pollution ; Rain ; Water Movements ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Global climate change has necessitated the update of urban stormwater management measures (SMMs), but this task is extremely difficult due to the deficiency of evaluation caused by discreteness and the limitation of selected storm events, the ignorance of antecedent dry day (ADD) and lack of suitable stochastic storm generation method. In this study, a new framework that considers both stochastic precipitation and ADD is introduced to evaluate urban SMMs more adequately. Gamma distribution fitting, the space discarding method, the production of probability density distribution maps and multiple nonlinear regression were combined with a physical-based model to assess the effectiveness of SMMs under changing climates. Taking low impact development practices (LIDs) as an example of SSMs, the case study showed that the proposed framework provided effectiveness probability density distribution map and regression equations with more evaluation details by increasing the number and type of storm events compared with current monitoring. Moreover, it is demonstrated that ADD should be considered as one important factor in the design of LIDs, especially for controlling urban non-point source pollution. The value of ADD will significantly affect the control effect of LIDs on pollutant loads and event mean concentration in runoff, which varied for different pollutants. Through case study, it shows there is a risk that LIDs would be less effective at controlling runoff and non-point source pollution in future climate scenarios, especially for RCP 8.5 which is more extreme. Therefore, adaptation capacity of climate change should be considered in the design of SMMs. The proposed framework will be a useful tool in the assessment, design and planning of urban SMMs considering climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34838375, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, Y and Pan, S and Yin, J and Feng, H and Wang, M and Chen, T}, title = {Resource potential and global warming potential of fruit and vegetable waste in China based on different treatment strategies.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {140}, number = {}, pages = {225-232}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2021.11.016}, pmid = {34838375}, issn = {1879-2456}, mesh = {Anaerobiosis ; Bioreactors ; Fruit ; Global Warming ; *Refuse Disposal ; *Vegetables ; }, abstract = {Fruit and vegetable waste (FVW) contains rich resources that can be recovered by methods such as incineration, anaerobic digestion to generate heat energy, biogas, and preservation by ensiling. However, a horizontal comparison of the resource potential and environmental impact of different recycling methods employed for FVW has not been conducted. This study quantifies and computes the recycling potential and global warming potential (GWP) of anaerobic digestion, ensiling, and incineration of the FVW generated during primary production in China. First, a gray model was employed to estimate the FVW output in 2030, based on the FVW produced between 2002 and 2017. Next, the resource potential and GWP of anaerobic digestion, incineration, and ensiling were evaluated. Finally, an optimization method was utilized to analyze possible strategies of FVW recycling in 2030. Results indicate that FVW output in China is expected to increase to 170 Mt by 2030, highlighting the need for efficient treatment options. Further, the resource potential and GWP of different waste treatment strategies were notably different. The recycling potential of ensiling was the highest at 1950 MJ/t; while the GWP of anaerobic digestion was the lowest at -31 kg CO2eq. An optimization analysis suggested that the optimal target of 100% would be attained if all FVW is ensiled in 2030. The study provides a basis for informed technical decision-making related to FVW recycling options in the future.}, }
@article {pmid34837311, year = {2022}, author = {Williams, JJ and Freeman, R and Spooner, F and Newbold, T}, title = {Vertebrate population trends are influenced by interactions between land use, climatic position, habitat loss and climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {797-815}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15978}, pmid = {34837311}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {Rapid human-driven environmental changes are impacting animal populations around the world. Currently, land-use and climate change are two of the biggest pressures facing biodiversity. However, studies investigating the impacts of these pressures on population trends often do not consider potential interactions between climate and land-use change. Further, a population's climatic position (how close the ambient temperature and precipitation conditions are to the species' climatic tolerance limits) is known to influence responses to climate change but has yet to be investigated with regard to its influence on land-use change responses over time. Consequently, important variations across species' ranges in responses to environmental changes may be being overlooked. Here, we combine data from the Living Planet and BioTIME databases to carry out a global analysis exploring the impacts of land use, habitat loss, climatic position, climate change and the interactions between these variables, on vertebrate population trends. By bringing these datasets together, we analyse over 7,000 populations across 42 countries. We find that land-use change is interacting with climate change and a population's climatic position to influence rates of population change. Moreover, features of a population's local landscape (such as surrounding land cover) play important roles in these interactions. For example, populations in agricultural land uses where maximum temperatures were closer to their hot thermal limit, declined at faster rates when there had also been rapid losses in surrounding semi-natural habitat. The complex interactions between these variables on populations highlight the importance of taking intraspecific variation and interactions between local and global pressures into account. Understanding how drivers of change are interacting and impacting populations, and how this varies spatially, is critical if we are to identify populations at risk, predict species' responses to future environmental changes and produce suitable conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid34836974, year = {2021}, author = {Canadell, JG and Meyer, CPM and Cook, GD and Dowdy, A and Briggs, PR and Knauer, J and Pepler, A and Haverd, V}, title = {Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {6921}, pmid = {34836974}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Fire activity in Australia is strongly affected by high inter-annual climate variability and extremes. Through changes in the climate, anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter fire dynamics. Here we compile satellite (19 and 32 years) and ground-based (90 years) burned area datasets, climate and weather observations, and simulated fuel loads for Australian forests. Burned area in Australia's forests shows a linear positive annual trend but an exponential increase during autumn and winter. The mean number of years since the last fire has decreased consecutively in each of the past four decades, while the frequency of forest megafire years (>1 Mha burned) has markedly increased since 2000. The increase in forest burned area is consistent with increasingly more dangerous fire weather conditions, increased risk factors associated with pyroconvection, including fire-generated thunderstorms, and increased ignitions from dry lightning, all associated to varying degrees with anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34836960, year = {2021}, author = {Ao, H and Rohling, EJ and Zhang, R and Roberts, AP and Holbourn, AE and Ladant, JB and Dupont-Nivet, G and Kuhnt, W and Zhang, P and Wu, F and Dekkers, MJ and Liu, Q and Liu, Z and Xu, Y and Poulsen, CJ and Licht, A and Sun, Q and Chiang, JCH and Liu, X and Wu, G and Ma, C and Zhou, W and Jin, Z and Li, X and Li, X and Peng, X and Qiang, X and An, Z}, title = {Global warming-induced Asian hydrological climate transition across the Miocene-Pliocene boundary.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {6935}, pmid = {34836960}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Across the Miocene-Pliocene boundary (MPB; 5.3 million years ago, Ma), late Miocene cooling gave way to the early-to-middle Pliocene Warm Period. This transition, across which atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased to levels similar to present, holds potential for deciphering regional climate responses in Asia-currently home to more than half of the world's population- to global climate change. Here we find that CO2-induced MPB warming both increased summer monsoon moisture transport over East Asia, and enhanced aridification over large parts of Central Asia by increasing evaporation, based on integration of our ~1-2-thousand-year (kyr) resolution summer monsoon records from the Chinese Loess Plateau aeolian red clay with existing terrestrial records, land-sea correlations, and climate model simulations. Our results offer palaeoclimate-based support for 'wet-gets-wetter and dry-gets-drier' projections of future regional hydroclimate responses to sustained anthropogenic forcing. Moreover, our high-resolution monsoon records reveal a dynamic response to eccentricity modulation of solar insolation, with predominant 405-kyr and ~100-kyr periodicities between 8.1 and 3.4 Ma.}, }
@article {pmid34836496, year = {2021}, author = {Laible, G and Cole, SA and Brophy, B and Wei, J and Leath, S and Jivanji, S and Littlejohn, MD and Wells, DN}, title = {Holstein Friesian dairy cattle edited for diluted coat color as a potential adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {BMC genomics}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {856}, pmid = {34836496}, issn = {1471-2164}, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Gene Editing ; *Heat Stress Disorders ; Heat-Shock Response ; Phenotype ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: High-producing Holstein Friesian dairy cattle have a characteristic black and white coat, often with large proportions of black. Compared to a light coat color, black absorbs more solar radiation which is a contributing factor to heat stress in cattle. To better adapt dairy cattle to rapidly warming climates, we aimed to lighten their coat color by genome editing.<br><br>RESULTS: Using gRNA/Cas9-mediated editing, we introduced a three bp deletion in the pre-melanosomal protein 17 gene (PMEL) proposed as causative variant for the semi-dominant color dilution phenotype observed in Galloway and Highland cattle. Calves generated from cells with homozygous edits revealed a strong color dilution effect. Instead of the characteristic black and white markings of control calves generated from unedited cells, the edited calves displayed a novel grey and white coat pattern.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This, for the first time, verified the causative nature of the PMEL mutation for diluting the black coat color in cattle. Although only one of the calves was healthy at birth and later succumbed to a naval infection, the study showed the feasibility of generating such edited animals with the possibility to dissect the effects of the introgressed edit and other interfering allelic variants that might exist in individual cattle and accurately determine the impact of only the three bp change.}, }
@article {pmid34834742, year = {2021}, author = {Ayed, S and Mlouhi, S and Bouhaouel, I}, title = {Adoption of Durum Wheat Cultivar 'Salim' with a Technical Package and Its Resilience to Climate Change Impacts in Smallholders: Case of Nebeur/Kef Region, Tunisia.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34834742}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {In recent years, there has been an urgent need for local strategies to ensure food sustainability in Tunisia, recognized as a climate change hotspot region. In this context, adaptation measures, including the adoption of high-yielding durum wheat cultivars with adequate agronomical practices, are an important avenue to improving the productivity of the smallholders that represent 80% of Tunisian farmers. Thus, this study highlights the impact of (i) the adoption of the recently marketed durum wheat cultivar 'Salim' as compared to the common cultivar 'Karim' and the transfer of a technical package to 11 farmers in the Nebeur delegation/Kef-Tunisia (semi-arid region) during the 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 cropping seasons, and (ii) climate change on the expected mean grain yield and biomass by 2070, using the CropSyst agronomic cultivation model based on multi-year crop simulations run with a daily weather series (2020-2070). The adoption of 'Salim' with the recommended package, compared to 'Karim' with the farmer practices, significantly increased the grain yield (37.84%) and biomass (55.43%). Otherwise, the impact of the 0.8 °C temperature rise on the potential yields and biomass over the next 51 years was positive. Contrary to expectations, the yield increases for the two cultivars were very close, but the yield of 'Salim' (36.02 q ha[-1]) remains much higher than that of 'Karim' (23.34 q ha[-1]). On other hand, 'Salim' experienced a higher increase for biomass compared to that of 'Karim'. These results indicate that the adoption of the 'Salim' cultivar with its technical package might be considered as a strategy of adaptation to Nebeur conditions and to future climate change events.}, }
@article {pmid34834741, year = {2021}, author = {Sampayo-Maldonado, S and Ordoñez-Salanueva, CA and Mattana, E and Way, M and Castillo-Lorenzo, E and Dávila-Aranda, PD and Lira-Saade, R and Téllez-Valdés, O and Rodriguez-Arevalo, NI and Ulian, T and Flores-Ortíz, CM}, title = {Thermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of Swietenia macrophylla King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34834741}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {N/A//Newton Fund to conserve and sustainably use the native flora of Mexico/ ; N/A//Garfield Weston Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Swietenia macrophylla is an economically important tree species propagated by seeds that lose their viability in a short time, making seed germination a key stage for the species recruitment. The objective of this study was to determine the cardinal temperatures and thermal time for seed germination of S. macrophylla; and its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Seeds were placed in germination chambers at constant temperatures from 5 to 45 °C and their thermal responses modelled using a thermal time approach. In addition, the potential biogeographic distribution was projected according to the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Germination rate reached its maximum at 37.3 ± 1.3 °C (To); seed germination decreased to near zero at 52.7 ± 2.2 °C (ceiling temperature, Tc) and at 12.8 ± 2.4 °C (base temperature, Tb). The suboptimal thermal time θ150 needed for 50% germination was ca. 190 °Cd, which in the current scenario is accumulated in 20 days. The CCSM4 model estimates an increase of the potential distribution of the species of 12.3 to 18.3% compared to the current scenario. The temperature had an important effect on the physiological processes of the seeds. With the increase in temperature, the thermal needs for germination are completed in less time, so the species will not be affected in its distribution. Although the distribution of the species may not be affected, it is crucial to generate sustainable management strategies to ensure its long-term conservation.}, }
@article {pmid34834700, year = {2021}, author = {Temirbekova, SK and Kulikov, IM and Afanasyeva, YV and Beloshapkina, OO and Kalashnikova, EA and Kirakosyan, RN and Dokukin, PA and Kucher, DE and Latati, M and Rebouh, NY}, title = {The Evaluation of Winter Wheat Adaptation to Climate Change in the Central Non-Black Region of Russia: Study of the Gene Pool Resistance of Wheat from the N.I. Vavilov Institute of Plant Industry (VIR) World Collection to Abiotic Stress Factors.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34834700}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {202186-2-000//RUDN University/ ; }, abstract = {The paper presents the results of a 50-year research of the genepool of the winter wheat from the world's largest wheat collection of N.I. Vavilov Institute of Plant Industry (VIR) to investigate its resistance to the abiotic stress factors of the Moscow region and see how closely it matches the attributes of a wheat ideotype as postulated by N.I. Vavilov in 1935. The critical years in studying the wheat's winter resistance were 10 years out of 50: excessive water saturation during the year 2013; soil drought in 1988; and atmospheric drought in 1972 and 2010. During the investigation, the following gene pool features were analyzed: frost characterized by the cultivar Sojuz 50 (Russia), rapid temperature change, thawing, ice, and rotting resistance characterized by the cultivars Zarya 2 (Russia), Sv 75268, (Sweden), Caristerm and Tukan (Germany), PP 114-74 and Liwilla (Poland), Maris Ploughman and Granta (Great Britain), Titan (USA), Zdar (Czech), and Zenta (Switzerland); regeneration capacity in spring after poor wintering expressed by the cultivars Pamyati Fedina (Russia), TAW 3668.71 (Germany) and Rmo (Poland); resistance to excessive soil and air saturation exhibited by the cultivars Moskovskaya 39 (Russia), Tukan, Compal, Obelisk, Orestis, and Bussard (Germany); solid standing culm that is resistant to lodging characterized by the cultivars Tukan, Kronjuwel, Compal (Germany), Zenta (Switzerland), Moskovskaya 56 (Russia), and Hvede Sarah (Denmark); resistance to enzyme-mycotic depletion of seeds characterized by the cultivars Tukan, Compal, Obelisk, Orestis, Bussard (Germany), Sv 75268, Helge, VG 73394, Salut, Sv 75355 (Sweden), Zenta (Switzerland), Moskovskaya 39, and Ferrugineum 737.76 (Russia); and resistance to soil and atmospheric drought demonstrated by the cultivars Liessau, Heine Stamm, Severin, Neuzucht 14/4, Haynes, Rus 991, Halle 1020 (Germany), Gama (Poland), Sv 71536 (Sweden), and Moskovskaya 39 (Russia). Moreover, the cultivar Mironovskaya 808 (Ukraine) showed resistance to almost all abiotic stress factors studied. The performed study contributes towards the provision of potential sources of resistance to abiotic stress factors prevalent in the Moscow region that can be incorporated in advanced breeding programs.}, }
@article {pmid34832586, year = {2021}, author = {Gray, JS and Ogden, NH}, title = {Ticks, Human Babesiosis and Climate Change.}, journal = {Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34832586}, issn = {2076-0817}, abstract = {The effects of current and future global warming on the distribution and activity of the primary ixodid vectors of human babesiosis (caused by Babesia divergens, B. venatorum and B. microti) are discussed. There is clear evidence that the distributions of both Ixodes ricinus, the vector in Europe, and I. scapularis in North America have been impacted by the changing climate, with increasing temperatures resulting in the northwards expansion of tick populations and the occurrence of I. ricinus at higher altitudes. Ixodes persulcatus, which replaces I. ricinus in Eurasia and temperate Asia, is presumed to be the babesiosis vector in China and Japan, but this tick species has not yet been confirmed as the vector of either human or animal babesiosis. There is no definite evidence, as yet, of global warming having an effect on the occurrence of human babesiosis, but models suggest that it is only a matter of time before cases occur further north than they do at present.}, }
@article {pmid34831995, year = {2021}, author = {Greibe Andersen, J and Karekezi, C and Ali, Z and Yonga, G and Kallestrup, P and Kraef, C}, title = {Perspectives of Local Community Leaders, Health Care Workers, Volunteers, Policy Makers and Academia on Climate Change Related Health Risks in Mukuru Informal Settlement in Nairobi, Kenya-A Qualitative Study.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {34831995}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Administrative Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; Kenya ; *Volunteers ; }, abstract = {Sub-Saharan Africa has been identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. The objective of this study was to explore knowledge and perspectives on climate change and health-related issues, with a particular focus on non-communicable diseases, in the informal settlement (urban slum) of Mukuru in Nairobi, Kenya. Three focus group discussions and five in-depth interviews were conducted with total of 28 participants representing local community leaders, health care workers, volunteers, policy makers and academia. Data were collected using semi-structured interview guides and analyzed using grounded theory. Seven main themes emerged: climate change related diseases, nutrition and access to clean water, environmental risk factors, urban planning and public infrastructure, economic risk factors, vulnerable groups, and adaptation strategies. All participants were conscious of a link between climate change and health. This is the first qualitative study on climate change and health in an informal settlement in Africa. The study provides important information on perceived health risks, risk factors and adaptation strategies related to climate change. This can inform policy making, urban planning and health care, and guide future research. One important strategy to adapt to climate change-associated health risks is to provide training of local communities, thus ensuring adaptation strategies and climate change advocacy.}, }
@article {pmid34829201, year = {2021}, author = {Bizarria, R and Kooij, PW and Rodrigues, A}, title = {Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars.}, journal = {Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34829201}, issn = {2309-608X}, support = {2019/03746-0; 2019/24412-2//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; 001; 88887.468939/2019-00; 88887.571230/2020-00//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior/ ; 305269/2018-6//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; }, abstract = {Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants' efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus-fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid34829050, year = {2021}, author = {Dinu, DG and Ricciardi, V and Demarco, C and Zingarofalo, G and De Lorenzis, G and Buccolieri, R and Cola, G and Rustioni, L}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Plant Phenology: Grapevine (Vitis vinifera) Bud Break in Wintertime in Southern Italy.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34829050}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {The effects of global warming on plants are not limited to the exacerbation of summer stresses; they could also induce dormancy dysfunctions. In January 2020, a bud break was observed in an old poly-varietal vineyard. Meteorological data elaboration of the 1951-2020 period confirmed the general climatic warming of the area and highlighted the particular high temperatures of the last winter. Phenological records appeared to be significantly correlated to wood hydration and starch reserve consumption, demonstrating a systemic response of the plant to the warm conditions. The eight cultivars, identified by single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) profiles and ampelographic description, grown in this vineyard showed different behaviors. Among them, the neglected Sprino, Baresana, Bianco Palmento, and Uva Gerusalemme, as well as the interspecific hybrid Seyve Villard 12.375, appeared to be the most interesting. Among the adaptation strategies to climate changes, the cultivar selection should be considered a priority, as it reduces the inputs required for the plant management over the entire life cycle of the vineyard. Hot Mediterranean areas, such as Salento, are a battlefront against the climate change impacts, and, thus, they represent a precious source of biodiversity for viticulture.}, }
@article {pmid34828063, year = {2021}, author = {Zhao, N and Zhang, X and Shan, G and Ye, X}, title = {Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on Spatial Aggregation of Giant Pandas and Sympatric Species in a Mountainous Landscape.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34828063}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {32170527; 31672310//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Understanding how climate change alters the spatial aggregation of sympatric species is important for biodiversity conservation. Previous studies usually focused on spatial shifting of species but paid little attention to changes in interspecific competitions under climate change. In this study, we evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the spatial aggregation of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and three sympatric competitive species (i.e., black bears (Ursus thibetanus), golden takins (Budorcas taxicolor), and wild boars (Sus scrofa)) in the Qinling Mountains, China. We employed an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach to map the current spatial distributions of giant pandas and sympatric animals and projected them to future climate scenarios in 2050s and 2070s. We then examined the range overlapping and niche similarities of these species under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that the distribution areas of giant pandas and sympatric species would decrease remarkably under future climate changes. The shifting directions of the overlapping between giant pandas and sympatric species vary under different climate change scenarios. In conclusion, future climate change greatly shapes the spatial overlapping pattern of giant pandas and sympatric species in the Qinling Mountains, while interspecific competition would be intensified under both mild and worst-case climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid34827859, year = {2021}, author = {Goma, AA and Phillips, CJC}, title = {The Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Egyptian Livestock Production.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34827859}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Egypt is one of the hottest countries in the world, and extreme climate events are becoming more frequent, which is consistent with the warming of the planet. The impact of this warming on ecosystems is severe, including on livestock production systems. Under Egyptian conditions, livestock already suffer heat stress periods in summer. The predicted increases in temperature as result of climate change will affect livestock production by reducing growth and milk production because of appetite suppression and conception rate reductions and will increase animal welfare concerns. In severe cases, these effects can result in death. We review the heat stress effects on livestock behaviour, reproduction, and production in the context of predicted climate change for Egypt over the course of this century and offer alternative scenarios to achieve food security for a growing human population. As an example, we combine predictions for reduced milk production during heat stress and human population trajectories to predict that milk availability per person will decline from 61 kg/year in 2011 to 26 kg/year in 2064. Mitigation strategies are discussed and include the substitution of animal-based foods for plant-based foods and laboratory-grown animal products.}, }
@article {pmid34827144, year = {2021}, author = {Zhou, R and Gao, Y and Chang, N and Gao, T and Ma, D and Li, C and Liu, Q}, title = {Projecting the Potential Distribution of Glossinamorsitans (Diptera: Glossinidae) under Climate Change Using the MaxEnt Model.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34827144}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2020YFC1200101//the Visualized identification of important foreign invasion vectors and pathogens and their invasion risks/ ; }, abstract = {Glossina morsitans is a vector for Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT), which is mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa at present. Our objective was to project the historical and future potentially suitable areas globally and explore the influence of climatic factors. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was utilized to evaluate the contribution rates of bio-climatic factors and to project suitable habitats for G. morsitans. We found that Isothermality and Precipitation of Wettest Quarter contributed most to the distribution of G. morsitans. The predicted potentially suitable areas for G. morsitans under historical climate conditions would be 14.5 million km[2], including a large area of Africa which is near and below the equator, small equatorial regions of southern Asia, America, and Oceania. Under future climate conditions, the potentially suitable areas are expected to decline by about -5.38 ± 1.00% overall, under all shared socioeconomic pathways, compared with 1970-2000. The potentially suitable habitats of G. morsitans may not be limited to Africa. Necessary surveillance and preventive measures should be taken in high-risk regions.}, }
@article {pmid34826460, year = {2022}, author = {Rivaes, RP and Feio, MJ and Almeida, SFP and Calapez, AR and Sales, M and Gebler, D and Lozanovska, I and Aguiar, FC}, title = {River ecosystem endangerment from climate change-driven regulated flow regimes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {818}, number = {}, pages = {151857}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151857}, pmid = {34826460}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Major threats of freshwater systems are river damming and habitat degradation, further amplified by climate change, another major driver of biodiversity loss. This study aims to understand the effects of climate change, and its repercussions on hydropower production, on the instream biota of a regulated river. Particularly, it aims to ascertain how mesohabitat availability downstream of hydropower plants changes due to modified flow regimes driven by climate change; how mesohabitat changes will influence the instream biota; and if instream biota changes will be similar within and between biological groups. We used a mesohabitat-level ecohydraulic approach with four biological elements - macrophytes, macroalgae, diatoms and macroinvertebrates - to encompass a holistic ecosystem perspective of the river system. The ecological preferences of the biological groups for specific mesohabitats were established by field survey. The mesohabitat availability in three expected climate change-driven flow regime scenarios was determined by hydrodynamic modeling. The biota abundance/cover was computed for the mesohabitat indicator species of each biological group. Results show that climate-changed flow regimes are characterized by a significant water shortage during summer months already for 2050. Accordingly, the regulated rivers' hydraulics are expected to change towards more homogeneous flow conditions where run habitats should prevail. As a result, the biological elements are expected to face abundance/cover modifications ranging from decreases of 76% up to 67% increase, depending on the biological element and indicator taxa. Diatoms seem to endure the greatest range of modifications while macrophytes the slightest (15% decrease to 38% increase). The greatest modifications would occur on decreasing abundance/cover responses. Such underlies an important risk to fluvial biodiversity in the future, indicting climate change as a significant threat to the fluvial system in regulated rivers.}, }
@article {pmid34826247, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, H and Cheng, H and Sinha, A and Spötl, C and Cai, Y and Liu, B and Kathayat, G and Li, H and Tian, Y and Li, Y and Zhao, J and Sha, L and Lu, J and Meng, B and Niu, X and Dong, X and Liang, Z and Zong, B and Ning, Y and Lan, J and Edwards, RL}, title = {Collapse of the Liangzhu and other Neolithic cultures in the lower Yangtze region in response to climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {7}, number = {48}, pages = {eabi9275}, pmid = {34826247}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The Liangzhu culture in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was among the world’s most advanced Neolithic cultures. Archeological evidence suggests that the Liangzhu ancient city was abandoned, and the culture collapsed at ~4300 years ago. Here, we present speleothem records from southeastern China in conjunction with other paleoclimatic and archeological data to show that the Liangzhu culture collapsed within a short and anomalously wet period between 4345 ± 32 and 4324 ± 30 years ago, supporting the hypothesis that the city was abandoned after large-scale flooding and inundation. We further show that the demise of Neolithic cultures in the YRD occurred within an extended period of aridity that started at ~4000 ± 45 years ago. We suggest that the major hydroclimatic changes between 4300 and 3000 years ago may have resulted from an increasing frequency of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the context of weakened Northern Hemisphere summer insolation.}, }
@article {pmid34825128, year = {2021}, author = {Ramadan, AMH and Ataallah, AG}, title = {Are climate change and mental health correlated?.}, journal = {General psychiatry}, volume = {34}, number = {6}, pages = {e100648}, pmid = {34825128}, issn = {2517-729X}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of our time and is likely to affect human beings in substantial ways. Recently, researchers started paying more attention to the changes in climate and their subsequent impact on the social, environmental and economic determinants of health, and the role they play in causing or exacerbating mental health problems. The effects of climate change-related events on mental well-being could be classified into direct and indirect effects. The direct effects of climate change mostly occur after acute weather events and include post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety, substance abuse disorder, depression and even suicidal ideation. The indirect effects include economic losses, displacement and forced migration, competition over scarce resources and collective violence. The risk factors for developing those mental health issues include young age, female gender, low socioeconomic status, loss or injury of a loved one, being a member of immigrant groups or indigenous people, pre-existing mental illness and inadequate social support. However, in some individuals, especially those undisturbed by any directly observable effects of climate change, abstract awareness and acknowledgement of the ongoing climate crisis can induce negative emotions that can be intense enough to cause mental health illness. Coping strategies should be provided to the affected communities to protect their mental health from collapse in the face of climate disasters. Awareness of the mental health impacts of climate change should be raised, especially in the high-risk groups. Social and global attention to the climate crisis and its detrimental effects on mental health are crucial. This paper was written with the aim of trying to understand the currently, scientifically proven impact of climate change-related disasters on mental health and understanding the different methods of solving the problem at the corporate level, by trying to decrease greenhouse gas emissions to zero, and at the individual level by learning how to cope with the impacts of those disasters.}, }
@article {pmid34824817, year = {2021}, author = {Garnier, S and Giordanengo, E and Saatkamp, A and Santonja, M and Reiter, IM and Orts, JP and Gauquelin, T and Meineri, E}, title = {Amplified drought induced by climate change reduces seedling emergence and increases seedling mortality for two Mediterranean perennial herbs.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {22}, pages = {16143-16152}, pmid = {34824817}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Seedling recruitment is a bottleneck for population dynamics and range shift. The vital rates linked to recruitment by seed are impacted by amplified drought induced by climate change. In the Mediterranean region, autumn and winter seedling emergence and mortality may have strong impact on the overall seedling recruitment. However, studies focusing on the temporal dynamic of recruitment during these seasons are rare. This study was performed in a deciduous Mediterranean oak forest located in southern France and quantifies the impact of amplified drought conditions on autumn and winter seedling emergence and seedling mortality rates of two herbaceous plant species with meso-Mediterranean and supra-Mediterranean distribution (respectively, Silene italica and Silene nutans). Seedlings were followed from October 2019 to May 2020 in both undisturbed and disturbed plots where the litter and the aboveground biomass have been removed to create open microsites. Amplified drought conditions reduced seedling emergence and increased seedling mortality for both Silene species but these negative effects were dependent on soil disturbance conditions. Emergence of S. italica decreased only in undisturbed plots (-7%) whereas emergence of S. nutans decreased only in disturbed plots (-10%) under amplified drought conditions. The seedling mortality rate of S. italica was 51% higher under amplified drought conditions in undisturbed plots while that of S. nutans was 38% higher in disturbed plots. Aridification due to lower precipitation in the Mediterranean region will negatively impact the seedling recruitment of these two Silene species. Climate change effects on early vital rates may likely have major negative impacts on the overall population dynamic.}, }
@article {pmid34822677, year = {2021}, author = {Grunow, B and Franz, GP and Tönißen, K}, title = {In Vitro Fish Models for the Analysis of Ecotoxins and Temperature Increase in the Context of Global Warming.}, journal = {Toxics}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34822677}, issn = {2305-6304}, abstract = {Rising temperatures can affect fish survival, especially from shallower waters, as temperatures increase faster and more intensively in these areas; thus, species-specific temperature tolerance can be exceeded. Additionally, the amounts of anthropogenic pollutants are higher in coastal waters. Although increasing metabolic activity at higher temperatures could lead to stronger effects of toxins, there are hardly any studies on this topic. Subsequently, the aim was to investigate the response of fish cells upon exposure to industrial solvents (ethanol, isopropanol, dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO)) in relation to a temperature increase (20 °C and 25 °C). Concerning the 3Rs (the replacement, reduction and refinement of animal experiments), in vitro tests were used for two threatened, vulnerable fish species: maraena whitefish (Coregonus maraena) and Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus). Both cell lines exhibited higher proliferation at 25 °C. However, ecotoxicological results indicated significant differences regarding the cell line, toxin, temperature and exposure time. The evolutionarily older fish lineage, Atlantic sturgeon, demonstrated lower mortality rates in the presence of isopropanol and recovered better during long-term ethanol exposure than the maraena whitefish. Atlantic sturgeon cells have higher adaptation potential for these alcohols. In summary, fish species respond very specifically to toxins and changes in temperature, and new ecotoxicological questions arise with increasing water temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid34821786, year = {2021}, author = {Skendžić, S and Zovko, M and Pajač Živković, I and Lešić, V and Lemić, D}, title = {Effect of Climate Change on Introduced and Native Agricultural Invasive Insect Pests in Europe.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34821786}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {KK.05.1.1.02.0031//European Regional Development Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change and invasive species are major environmental issues facing the world today. They represent the major threats for various types of ecosystems worldwide, mainly managed ecosystems such as agriculture. This study aims to examine the link between climate change and the biological invasion of insect pest species. Increased international trade systems and human mobility have led to increasing introduction rates of invasive insects while climate change could decrease barriers for their establishment and distribution. To mitigate environmental and economic damage it is important to understand the biotic and abiotic factors affecting the process of invasion (transport, introduction, establishment, and dispersal) in terms of climate change. We highlight the major biotic factors affecting the biological invasion process: diet breadth, phenological plasticity, and lifecycle strategies. Finally, we present alien insect pest invasion management that includes prevention, eradication, and assessment of the biological invasion in the form of modelling prediction tools.}, }
@article {pmid34821773, year = {2021}, author = {Pinto, J and Magni, PA and O'Brien, RC and Dadour, IR}, title = {Domestic Filth Flies in New Haven, Connecticut: A Case Study on the Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change by Comparing Fly Populations after 78 Years.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34821773}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {Research Training Program Scholarship.//Australian Government/ ; }, abstract = {Changes in common and widespread insect populations such as the domestic filth fly in urban cities are useful and relevant bioindicators for overall changes in the insect biomass. The current study surveyed necrophagous flies by placing a weekly trap from June-September over a two-year period in the city of New Haven, Connecticut, to compare data on fly abundance and diversity with data collected 78 years earlier. Climate and land cover changes were also assessed in combination with the fly population for each period. The survey results suggest the domestic filth fly population is now less diverse with decreased species richness and changes in the relative abundance of species. In both surveys, 95-96% of the population was composed of only three species. The current survey data indicate the numerical dominance of Lucilia sericata has decreased, the abundance of several species, notably Lucilia coeruleiviridis, has increased, and Lucilia illustris is absent. Species that showed a significant interaction with temperature in the 1940s survey have now increased in abundance, with several of the trapped species continuing to show an interaction with temperature and rainfall. Analysis of the land cover and climate data characterizes the trap site as a region exposed to a prolonged period of industrialization and urbanization, with only 7% of the land cover remaining undeveloped and over 50% impervious, coupled with an increase in temperature and rainfall. This study serves as a model for changes in domestic filth fly populations and other insects in similarly highly urbanized established cities.}, }
@article {pmid34820174, year = {2021}, author = {Iannella, M and De Simone, W and D'Alessandro, P and Biondi, M}, title = {Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e12387}, pmid = {34820174}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {AIMS: Rice is a staple food for many countries, being fundamental for a large part of the worlds' population. In sub-Saharan Africa, its importance is currently high and is likely to become even more relevant, considering that the number of people and the per-capita consumption are both predicted to increase. The flea beetles belonging to the Chaetocnema pulla species group (pulla group), a harmful rice pest, are an important vector of the Rice Yellow Mottle Virus, a disease which leads even to 80-100% yield losses in rice production. We present a continental-scale study aiming at: (1) locating current and future suitable territories for both pulla group and rice; (2) identifying areas where rice cultivations may occur without suffering the presence of pulla group using an Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) approach; (3) estimating current and future connectivity among pulla group populations and areas predicted to host rice cultivations, based on the most recent land-use estimates for future agricultural trends; (4) proposing a new connectivity index called "Pest Aggression Index" (PAI) to measure the agricultural susceptibility to the potential future invasions of pests and disease; (5) quantifying losses in terms of production when rice cultivations co-occur with the pulla group and identifying the SSA countries which, in the future inferred scenarios, will potentially suffer the greatest losses.<br><br>LOCATION: Sub-Saharan Africa.<br><br>METHODS: Since the ongoing climate and land-use changes affect species' distributions, we first assess the impact of these changes through a spatially-jackknifed Maxent-based Ecological Niche Modelling in GIS environment, for both the pulla group and rice, in two climatic/socioeconomic future scenarios (SSP_2.45 and 3.70). We then assess the connectivity potential of the pulla group populations towards rice cultivations, for both current and future predictions, through a circuit theory-based approach (Circuitscape implemented in Julia language). We finally measure the rice production and GPD loss per country through the spatial index named "Pest Aggression Index", based on the inferred connectivity magnitude.<br><br>RESULTS: The most considerable losses in rice production are observed for Liberia, Sierra Leone and Madagascar in all future scenarios (2030, 2050, 2070). The future economic cost, calculated as USD lost from rice losses/country's GDP results are high for Central African Republic (-0.6% in SSP_2.45 and -3.0% in SSP_3.70) and Guinea-Bissau (-0.4% in SSP_2.45 and -0.68% in SSP_3.70), with relevant losses also obtained for other countries.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Since our results are spatially explicit and focused on each country, we encourage careful land-use planning. Our findings could support best practices to avoid the future settlement of new cultivations in territories where rice would be attacked by pulla group and the virus, bringing economic and biodiversity losses.}, }
@article {pmid34819767, year = {2021}, author = {Gómez-Cruz, A and Santos-Hernández, NG and Cruz, JA and Ariano-Sánchez, D and Ruiz-Castillejos, C and Espinoza-Medinilla, EE and Fuentes-Vicente, JA}, title = {Effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Helodermaalvarezi (Squamata, Helodermatidae).}, journal = {ZooKeys}, volume = {1070}, number = {}, pages = {1-12}, pmid = {34819767}, issn = {1313-2989}, abstract = {Climate change represents a real threat to biodiversity conservation worldwide. Although the effects on several species of conservation priority are known, comprehensive information about the impact of climate change on reptile populations is lacking. In the present study, we analyze outcomes on the potential distribution of the black beaded lizard (Helodermaalvarezi Bogert &amp; Martin del Campo, 1956) under global warming scenarios. Its potential distribution, at present and in projections for the years 2050 and 2070, under both optimistic and pessimistic climate change forecasts, were computed using current data records and seven bioclimatic variables. General results predict a shift in the future potential distribution of H.alvarezi due to temperature increase. The optimistic scenario (4.5 W/m[2]) for 2070 suggests an enlargement in the species' distribution as a response to the availability of new areas of suitable habitat. On the contrary, the worst-case scenario (7 W/m[2]) shows a distribution decrease by 65%. Moreover, the range distribution of H.alvarezi is directly related to the human footprint, which consequently could magnify negative outcomes for this species. Our research elucidates the importance of conservation strategies to prevent the extinction of the black beaded lizard, especially considering that this species is highly threatened by aversive hunting.}, }
@article {pmid34819067, year = {2021}, author = {Han, SR and Wei, M and Wu, Z and Duan, S and Chen, X and Yang, J and Borg, MA and Lin, J and Wu, C and Xiang, J}, title = {Perceptions of workplace heat exposure and adaption behaviors among Chinese construction workers in the context of climate change.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {2160}, pmid = {34819067}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {China/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Construction Industry ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Occupational Exposure/adverse effects ; *Occupational Health ; Workplace ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Workplace heat exposure can cause a series of heat-related illnesses and injuries. Protecting workers especially those undertake work outdoors from the risk of heat strain is a great challenge for many workplaces in China under the context of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the perceptions and adaptation behaviors of heat exposure among construction workers and to provide evidence for the development of targeted heat adaptation strategies nationally and internationally.<br><br>METHODS: In 2020, we conducted a cross-sectional online questionnaire survey via WeChat Survey Star in China, using a purposive snowball sampling approach. A total of 326 construction workers submitted completed questionnaires. The perceptions of workplace heat exposure were measured using seven indicators: concerns over high temperature, perception of high temperature injury, attitudes towards both heat-related training and regulations, adjustment of working habits during heat, heat prevention measures in the workplace, and reduction of work efficiency. Bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to identify the factors significantly associated with workers' heat perceptions and behavioral responses.<br><br>RESULTS: 33.3% of the respondents were moderately or very concerned about heat exposure in the workplace. Less than half of the workers (43.8%) were worried about heat-related injuries. Workers who have either experienced work-related injuries (OR&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.30, 95% CI 1.03-1.62) or witnessed injuries to others during high temperatures (OR&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.12, 95% CI 1.02-1.27) were more concerned about heat exposure compared to other workers. Most respondents (63.5%) stated that their work efficiency declined during extremely hot weather. The factors significantly associated with a reduction of work efficiency included undertaking physically demanding jobs (OR&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.28, 95% CI 1.07-1.54) and witnessing other workers' injuries during high temperatures (OR&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.26, 95% CI 1.11-1.43). More than half of the workers were willing to adjust their work habits to adapt to the impact of high temperatures (81.6%). The internet was the most common method to obtain heat prevention information (44.7%), and the most frequently used heat prevention measure was the provision of cool drinking water (64.8%).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Chinese construction workers lack heat risk awareness and are not well prepared for the likely increasing heat exposure in the workplace due to global warming. Therefore, there is a need to improve their awareness of heat-related injuries, strengthen high temperature related education and training, and update the current heat prevention policies to ensure compliance and implementation.}, }
@article {pmid34818817, year = {2022}, author = {Hu, H and He, L and Ma, H and Wang, J and Li, Y and Wang, J and Guo, Y and Ren, C and Bai, H and Zhao, F}, title = {Responses of AM fungal abundance to the drivers of global climate change: A meta-analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {805}, number = {}, pages = {150362}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150362}, pmid = {34818817}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Mycorrhizae ; Nitrogen ; Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), playing critical roles in carbon cycling, are vulnerable to climate change. However, the responses of AM fungal abundance to climate change are unclear. A global-scale meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the response patterns of AM fungal abundance to warming, elevated CO2 concentration (eCO2), and N addition. Both warming and eCO2 significantly stimulated AM fungal abundance by 18.6% (95%CI: 5.9%-32.8%) and 21.4% (15.1%-28.1%) on a global scale, respectively. However, the response ratios (RR) of AM fungal abundance decreased with the degree of warming while increased with the degree of eCO2. Furthermore, in warming experiments, as long as the warming exceeded 4 °C, its effects on AM fungal abundance changed from positive to negative regardless of the experimental durations, methods, periods, and ecosystem types. The effects of N addition on AM fungal abundance are -5.4% (-10.6%-0.2%), and related to the nitrogen fertilizer input rate and ecosystem type. The RR of AM fungal abundance is negative in grasslands and farmlands when the degree of N addition exceeds 33.85 and 67.64 kg N ha[-1] yr[-1], respectively; however, N addition decreases AM fungal abundance in forests only when the degree of N addition exceeds 871.31 kg N ha[-1] yr[-1]. The above results provide an insight into predicting ecological functions of AM fungal abundance under global changes.}, }
@article {pmid34818812, year = {2022}, author = {Han, L and Li, Y and Zou, Y and Gao, X and Gu, Y and Wang, L}, title = {Relationship between lake salinity and the climatic gradient in northeastern China and its implications for studying climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {805}, number = {}, pages = {150403}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150403}, pmid = {34818812}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Geologic Sediments ; *Lakes ; Salinity ; }, abstract = {The rising temperatures, increased evaporation, and altered precipitation patterns associated with global warming pose threats to aquatic ecosystems, especially the salinization of lake water and changes in the terrestrial carbon budget. We studied a series of samples of catchment soils, surface sediments, and sediment cores from 51 lakes and reservoirs covering an extensive climatic range in northeastern China. Measurements included salinity indices (electrical conductivity and pH) and other physicochemical parameters, including magnetic properties and color (chroma). The results indicate that the occurrence of salt minerals and the salinity of the lake sediments are dominated by the arid climatic conditions of the region. This enabled us to develop climatic transfer functions between salinity, precipitation and evaporation, with potential applications in paleoclimatic research. As carbonates are the dominant salts in most of the studied lakes and reservoirs, past salinity variations are likely reflected by changes in HCO3[-] and CO3[2-] concentrations, which provides the opportunity to study the response of water-CO2-carbonate interactions to climate change. Our findings emphasize the important role of alkaline lakes in carbon burial and carbon neutralization, in the context of ongoing global warming.}, }
@article {pmid34818811, year = {2022}, author = {Zubelzu, S and Sánchez-Calvo, R and Cardozo, DS and Ide, FC and Rodríguez-Sinobas, L}, title = {Suitability of Sustainable Agricultural Drainage Systems for adapting agriculture to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {805}, number = {}, pages = {150319}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150319}, pmid = {34818811}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Agricultural Irrigation ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This paper presents a comprehensive and practical method for Sustainable Agricultural Drainage Systems (SADS) design. It is aimed at studying the suitability of using surface runoff as irrigation source. The method determines the optimum amount of surface runoff to be used for irrigation considering both environmental constraints (aquifers recharge, discharge to natural water courses) and investment and operation costs. The developed method has been applied to the Spanish irrigation district "Villalar de los Comuneros Sector 1" located in Valladolid. The estimation of the optimum SADS provision was calculated for most of the major crops at the irrigation district highlighting that SADS facilities can reduce the amount of external provision of water for irrigation while maintaining the aquifer's recharge and the natural discharge to water courses. The simulations run for climate change forecasting scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP, RCP45, RCP60, RCP85) showed that optimum SADS would reduce irrigation requirements and would increase natural fluxes (both aquifers and natural water courses) therefore improving the general water cycle in rural environments with productive agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid34816776, year = {2021}, author = {Naik, Y and Brook, A and Perraton, J and Meier, P}, title = {Fiscal and monetary policies: the cutting edge of advocacy and research on population health and climate change.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {141}, number = {6}, pages = {325-327}, pmid = {34816776}, issn = {1757-9147}, support = {MC_UU_00022/5/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; MR/S037578/2/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; SPHSU20/CSO_/Chief Scientist Office/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Fiscal Policy ; Humans ; *Population Health ; }, }
@article {pmid34816775, year = {2021}, author = {Issa, R and Baker, C and Spooner, R and Abrams, R and Gopfert, A and Evans, M and Aitchison, G}, title = {Mapping the movement for climate change and health in England: a descriptive review and theory of change analysis.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {141}, number = {6}, pages = {328-337}, pmid = {34816775}, issn = {1757-9147}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; England ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; }, abstract = {AIMS: There are a growing number of organisations working to address the connections between climate change and health. This article introduces the concept of 'theories of change' - the methodology by which organisations or movements hope to bring about social change - and applies it to the current climate change and health movement in England. Through movement mapping, the article describes and offers reflections on the climate change and health ecosystems in England.<br><br>METHODS: Organisations working on climate change and health in England were identified and publicly available information was collated to map movement characteristics, target stakeholders and methodologies deployed, using an inductive, iterative approach.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 98 organisations working on health and climate change (and/or sustainability) were initially identified, of which 70 met the inclusion criteria. Most organisations target two or more stakeholders, with healthcare workers, management structures, and government being most commonly cited. Methodological approaches identified include Formal education programmes; Awareness-raising; Purchasing-procurement power; Advocacy; Financial; Media-messaging; Networking; Knowledge generation; and Policy making, of which education, awareness-raising, and advocacy are most commonly used.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There is a tendency for climate change and health organisations in England to focus on individual level and sectoral change over system change. More could be made of the potential for the healthcare professions' voice and messaging for the wider climate movement. Given the rapid boom of climate change and health organisations in recent years, a mind-set shift that recognises different players as part of a cohesive ecosystem with better coordination and collaboration may reduce unnecessary work, and facilitate more cohesive outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid34816030, year = {2021}, author = {Aidoo, DC and Boateng, SD and Freeman, CK and Anaglo, JN}, title = {The effect of smallholder maize farmers' perceptions of climate change on their adaptation strategies: the case of two agro-ecological zones in Ghana.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {e08307}, pmid = {34816030}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Maize is one of the most common cereals and a major staple that is cultivated across all agro-ecological zones in Ghana. However, maize productivity is affected by changes in climate, such as increased temperature and variations in rainfall. These changes in climate require farmers to implement practices (adaptation strategies) in order to reduce the magnitude of crop losses. This study examined how the perceptions of maize farmers regarding climate change affect their choice of adaptation strategies. A mixed methods approach was adopted for the study. Data was collected by means of a survey of 386 maize farmers along with focus group discussions. Quantitative data were analysed with descriptive statistics, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and multivariate probit regression, while qualitative responses were used to explain the findings. Results from the data analysis indicated that maize farmers employed 17 adaptation strategies in adapting to climate change. The most common strategies identified were change of planting days, crop diversification, use of resistant varieties, and monitoring weather forecasts on radio. Furthermore, the factors that influenced the choice of adaptation strategies by maize farmers in both zones were experience in farming, household size, and perceptions about the impact and intensity of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34814834, year = {2021}, author = {Sharif Nia, H and Gorgulu, O and Naghavi, N and Froelicher, ES and Fomani, FK and Goudarzian, AH and Sharif, SP and Pourkia, R and Haghdoost, AA}, title = {A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning.}, journal = {BMC cardiovascular disorders}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {563}, pmid = {34814834}, issn = {1471-2261}, mesh = {Attitude to Death ; *Climate Change ; *Grief ; Humans ; Incidence ; Iran/epidemiology ; *Islam ; Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis/*epidemiology ; Rain ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although various studies have been conducted on the effects of seasonal climate changes or emotional variables on the risk of AMI, many of them have limitations to determine the predictable model. The currents study is conducted to assess the effects of meteorological and emotional variables on the incidence and epidemiological occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Sari (capital of Mazandaran, Iran) during 2011-2018.<br><br>METHODS: In this study, a time series analysis was used to determine the variation of variables over time. All series were seasonally adjusted and Poisson regression analysis was performed. In the analysis of meteorological data and emotional distress due to religious mourning events, the best results were obtained by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) (5,5) model.<br><br>RESULTS: It was determined that average temperature, sunshine, and rain variables had a significant effect on death. A total of 2375 AMI's were enrolled. Average temperate (&#xb0;C) and sunshine hours a day (h/day) had a statistically significant relationship with the number of AMI's (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.011, P&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.014). For every extra degree of temperature increase, the risk of AMI rose [OR&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.011 (95%CI 1.00, 1.02)]. For every extra hour of sunshine, a day a statistically significant increase [OR&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.02 (95% CI 1.01, 1.04)] in AMI risk occurred (&#x3b2;&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.025, P&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.001). Religious mourning events increase the risk of AMI 1.05 times more. The other independent variables have no significant effects on AMI's (P&#x2009;>&#x2009;0.05).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Results demonstrate that sunshine hours and the average temperature had a significant effect on the risk of AMI. Moreover, emotional distress due to religious morning events increases AMI. More specific research on this topic is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid34814747, year = {2021}, author = {Visser, ME and Lindner, M and Gienapp, P and Long, MC and Jenouvrier, S}, title = {Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits (Parus major).}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {288}, number = {1963}, pages = {20211337}, pmid = {34814747}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; *Passeriformes ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit (Parus major), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches.}, }
@article {pmid34813802, year = {2022}, author = {Wang, X and Zhang, T and Zhang, Q and Xue, R and Qu, Y and Wang, Q and Dong, Z and Zhao, J}, title = {Different patterns of hypoxia aggravate the toxicity of polystyrene nanoplastics in the mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis: Environmental risk assessment of plastics under global climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {818}, number = {}, pages = {151818}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151818}, pmid = {34813802}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Hypoxia ; Microplastics/toxicity ; *Mytilus/metabolism ; Plastics/metabolism/toxicity ; Polystyrenes/toxicity ; Risk Assessment ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Hypoxia, largely triggered by anthropogenic activities and global climate change, exerts widespread and expanding stress on marine ecosystems. As an emerging contaminant, the influence of nanoplastics on marine organisms has also attracted attention in recent years. However, the impact of hypoxia on the risk assessments of nanoplastics is rarely considered. This study investigated the toxicity of PS-NPs (0, 0.5, and 5 mg/L) to the coastal mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis under different patterns of hypoxia (normoxia, constant hypoxia, and fluctuating hypoxia). The results showed that constant hypoxia might reduce the accumulation of PS-NPs in mussels by decreasing the standard metabolic rate. The impairment of PS-NPs on mussel immunity was also exacerbated by constant hypoxia. Fluctuating hypoxia did not affect the accumulation of PS-NPs, but aggravated the oxidative damage caused by PS-NPs. These findings emphasize the importance of environmental factors and their temporal variability in plastic risk assessment.}, }
@article {pmid34813669, year = {2022}, author = {McCabe, LM and Aslan, CE and Cobb, NS}, title = {Decreased bee emergence along an elevation gradient: Implications for climate change revealed by a transplant experiment.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {103}, number = {2}, pages = {e03598}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.3598}, pmid = {34813669}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {//National Science Foundation's Integrative Graduate Education, Research, and Traineeship Program/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Arizona ; Bees ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Bees experience differences in thermal tolerance based on their geographical range; however, there are virtually no studies that examine how overwintering temperatures may influence immature survival rates. Here, we conducted a transplant experiment along an elevation gradient to test for climate-change effects on immature overwinter survival using movement along elevational gradient for a community of 26 cavity-nesting bee species in the family Megachilidae along the San Francisco Peaks, Arizona elevational gradient. In each of three years, we placed nest blocks at three elevations, to be colonized by native Megachilidae. Colonized blocks were then (1) moved to lower (warmer) elevations; (2) moved to higher (cooler) elevations; or (3) left in their natal habitat (no change in temperature). Because Megachilidae occupy high elevations with colder temperatures more than any other family of bees, we predicted that emergence would decrease in nest blocks moved to lower elevations, but that we would find no differences in emergence when nest blocks were moved to higher elevations. We found three major results: (1) Bee species moved to lower (warmer) habitats exhibited a 30% decrease in emergence compared with species moved within their natal habitat. (2) Habitat generalists were more likely than habitat specialists to emerge when moved up or down in elevation regardless of their natal life zones. (3) At our highest elevation treatment, emergence increased when blocks were moved to higher elevations, indicating that at least some Megachilidae species can survive at colder temperatures. Our results suggest that direct effects of warming temperatures will have negative impacts on the overall survival of Megachilidae. Additionally, above the tree line, low availability of wood-nesting resources is a probable limiting factor on bees moving up in elevation.}, }
@article {pmid34813668, year = {2022}, author = {Jurgens, LJ and Ashlock, LW and Gaylord, B}, title = {Facilitation alters climate change risk on rocky shores.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {103}, number = {2}, pages = {e03596}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.3596}, pmid = {34813668}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {OCE-1636191//National Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Hot Temperature ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {A huge fraction of global biodiversity resides within biogenic habitats that ameliorate physical stresses. In most cases, details of how physical conditions within facilitative habitats respond to external climate forcing remain unknown, hampering climate change predictions for many of the world's species. Using intertidal mussel beds as a model system, we characterize relationships among external climate conditions and within-microhabitat heat and desiccation conditions. We use these data, along with physiological tolerances of two common inhabitant taxa (the isopod Cirolana harfordi and the porcelain crab Petrolisthes cinctipes), to examine the magnitude of climate risk inside and outside biogenic habitat, applying an empirically derived model of evaporation to simulate mortality risk under a high-emissions climate-warming scenario. We found that biogenic microhabitat conditions responded so weakly to external climate parameters that mortality risk was largely unaffected by climate warming. In contrast, outside the biogenic habitat, desiccation drove substantial mortality in both species, even at temperatures 4.4-8.6°C below their hydrated thermal tolerances. These findings emphasize the importance of warming-exacerbated desiccation to climate-change risk and the role of biogenic habitats in buffering this less-appreciated stressor. Our results suggest that, when biogenic habitats remain intact, climate warming may have weak direct effects on organisms within them. Instead, risk to such taxa is likely to be indirect and tightly coupled with the fate of habitat-forming populations. Conserving and restoring biogenic habitats that offer climate refugia could therefore be crucial to supporting biodiversity in the face of climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid34812597, year = {2022}, author = {Aronsson, J and Nichols, A and Warwick, P and Elf, M}, title = {Awareness and attitudes towards sustainability and climate change amongst students and educators in nursing: A systematic integrative review protocol.}, journal = {Nursing open}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {839-844}, pmid = {34812597}, issn = {2054-1058}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Students, Nursing ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; }, abstract = {AIM: This review identifies and synthesizes literature related to the awareness of and attitudes towards sustainability and climate change from the perspective of nursing students and educators.<br><br>DESIGN: A systematic integrative review.<br><br>METHODS: The review will follow the five stages outlined by Whittemore and Knafl: problem identification, literature search, data evaluation, data analysis and presentation. The data analysis will be based on inductive content analysis developed by Elo and Kyng&#xe4;s. Principles of the Cochrane Collaboration and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta Analyses (PRISMA) will also inform the review process.<br><br>RESULTS: This review will offer insights about sustainability and climate change in relation to an important target population: the future nursing workforce and those educating its members. Findings might inform curriculum development, potentially contributing to a nursing profession that looks after the health of the planet and the health of the population inhabiting it.}, }
@article {pmid34812485, year = {2021}, author = {Adams, J and Morano, LD and Tzouanas, V and Hasan, M}, title = {Classical soil gardens versus outdoor hydroponic gardens utilizing energy and water capture technologies to combat climate change.}, journal = {Journal of emergency management (Weston, Mass.)}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {505-511}, doi = {10.5055/jem.0586}, pmid = {34812485}, issn = {1543-5865}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Gardens ; Humans ; Hydroponics ; *Soil ; Water ; }, abstract = {Many outdoor gardens are designed for plants to grow in soil. Few gardens are designed for plants to be hydroponically grown outside with energy and water capture technologies. The feasibility of a selfsufficient, adaptive hydroponic garden harnessing energy from multiple renewable energy (solar and wind) and rainwater collection techniques while producing food has been considered. This study's primary objective is to conduct a comparative analysis between a traditional soil garden bed and an outdoor hydroponic system, called Pangea. The study findings suggest no significant statistical difference between the plants grown in traditional soil and a Pangea system. Additional objectives of this study include a comparative analysis of water and energy differentials between a standard garden and Pangea. This study's energy findings suggest that the Pangea system produces 0.05 kWh of energy to 0 kWh of energy production in the classic soil over a month timespan. The water production findings indicate that a Pangea system produces 198.01 L of water and a classic soil of 69 L for a timespan of 1 month, concluding a positive water differential of 288.12 L and a negative water differential of 414 L after 6 months. The study findings suggest the combination of sustainable practices can limit the negative effects of weather-related events to create a positive differential for producing food, water, and energy.}, }
@article {pmid34808160, year = {2022}, author = {Cremona, F and Öglü, B and McCarthy, MJ and Newell, SE and Nõges, P and Nõges, T}, title = {Nitrate as a predictor of cyanobacteria biomass in eutrophic lakes in a climate change context.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {818}, number = {}, pages = {151807}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151807}, pmid = {34808160}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biomass ; Climate Change ; *Cyanobacteria ; Eutrophication ; *Lakes/microbiology ; Nitrates ; }, abstract = {We aimed to predict cyanobacteria biomass and nitrate (NO3[-]) concentrations in Lake Võrtsjärv, a large, shallow, and eutrophic lake in Estonia. We used a model chain based on the succession of a mechanistic (INCA-N) model and an empirical, generalized linear model. INCA-N model calibration and validation was performed with long term climate and catchment parameters. We constructed twelve scenarios as combinations of climate forcing from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 3 scenarios), land conversion (forest to agriculture, 2 scenarios), and fertilizer use (2 scenarios). Models predicted 46% of the variance of cyanobacteria biomass and 65% of that of NO3[-] concentrations. The model chain simulated that scenarios comprising both forest conversion to agricultural lands and a greater use of fertilizer per surface area unit would cause increases in lacustrine NO3[-] (up to twice the historical mean) and cyanobacteria biomass (up to a four-fold increase compared to the historical mean). The changes in NO3[-] concentrations and cyanobacteria biomass were more pronounced in low and moderate warming scenarios than in high warming scenarios because of increased denitrification rates in a warmer climate. Our findings show the importance of reducing anthropogenic pressures on lake catchments in order to reduce harmful pollutant and microalgae proliferation, and highlight the counterintuitive effects of multiple stressor interactions on lake functioning.}, }
@article {pmid34806075, year = {2021}, author = {Patrick, R and Garad, R and Snell, T and Enticott, J and Meadows, G}, title = {Australians report climate change as a bigger concern than COVID-19.}, journal = {The journal of climate change and health}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {100032}, pmid = {34806075}, issn = {2667-2782}, abstract = {Australia experienced two public health emergencies in 2020 - the catastrophic bushfires and the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Whilst these were separate events, both have similar drivers arising from human pressures on the natural environment. Here we report on relative personal concerns of Australians in a survey implemented during the global COVID-19 pandemic. The study design was a cross sectional online survey administered between 11 August and 11 November 2020. The setting was an Australia-wide online population involving 5483 individuals aged ≥18 residing in Australia. Recruitment occurred in two stages: unrestricted self-selected community sample through mainstream and social media (N = 4089); and purposeful sampling using an online panel company (N = 1055). The sample was predominantly female (N = 3187); mean age of 52.7 years; and approximately representative of adults in Australia for age, location, state and area disadvantage (IRSD quintiles). Climate change was very much a problem for 66.3% of the sample, while COVID-19 was ranked at the same level by only 25.3%. Three times as many participants reported that climate change was very much a problem than COVID-19, despite responding at a time when Australians were experiencing Stage 2 through 4 lockdowns. Demographic differences relating to relative personal concerns are discussed. Even in the midst of the uncertainty of a public health pandemic, Australians report that climate change is their most significant personal problem. Australia needs to apply an evidence-based public health approach to climate change, like it did for the pandemic, which will address the climate change concerns of Australians.}, }
@article {pmid34805238, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, D and Li, Y and Wang, P and Zhong, H and Wang, P}, title = {Sustainable Agriculture Development in Northwest China Under the Impacts of Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in nutrition}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {706552}, pmid = {34805238}, issn = {2296-861X}, abstract = {Northwest China has one of the most vulnerable agricultural systems in the context of global climate change. We argue that sustainable agriculture development in this region requires a systematic approach toward climate change adaptation, and propose a schematic framework for strategic thinking. We first briefly review the impacts of climate change on various agricultural environmental factors, including light, temperature, water, and atmosphere, and explores the effects of climate change on agricultural practices, such as disaster response, pests and weeds control, fertilizer application, and species selection. The study shows that climate change has increased extreme climate disasters such as drought and heat waves, and has expanded the scope and severity of pests and weeds, which in turn requires a series of changes in farming practices. These effects have profound impacts on farmland management, as well as the sustainability of the agricultural system. Based on the findings, the authors argue that the key adaptation strategies should include: (1) optimizing the geographic distribution of agriculture, (2) cultivating new crop varieties that can better adapt to the changing environment, (3) adjusting cropping timing and structure, (4) developing water-saving irrigation systems, (5) improving capacities of disaster prevention and mitigation at both household and government levels, and (6) strengthening the sciences, technology, and human resources to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34801478, year = {2022}, author = {Gutiérrez-Jara, JP and Salazar-Viedma, M and González, CR and Cancino-Faure, B}, title = {The emergence of Dirofilaria repens in a non-endemic area influenced by climate change: dynamics of transmission using a mathematical model.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {106230}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2021.106230}, pmid = {34801478}, issn = {1873-6254}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Dirofilaria immitis ; *Dirofilaria repens ; *Dirofilariasis/epidemiology ; *Dog Diseases ; Dogs ; Models, Theoretical ; Mosquito Vectors ; }, abstract = {Dirofilaria repens is a nematode affecting domestic and wild canids, transmitted by several species of mosquitoes of different genera. It usually causes a non-pathogenic subcutaneous infection in dogs and is the principal agent of human dirofilariasis in the Old World. The geographic distribution of D. repens is changing rapidly, and several factors contribute to the spread of the infection to non-endemic areas. A mathematical model for transmission of Dirofilaria spp. was built, using a system of ordinary differential equations that consider the interactions between reservoirs, vectors, and humans. The transmission simulations of D. repens were carried out considering a projection in time, with intervals of 15 and 100 years. For the dynamics of the vector, seasonal variations were presented as series with quarter periodicity during the year. The results of the simulations highlight the peak of contagions in the reservoir and in humans, a product of the action of the vector when it remains active throughout the year. A 300% infection increase in the reservoir was observed during the first decade and remains present in the population with a representative number of cases. When the vector maintains its density and infectivity during the year, the incidence of the infection in humans increases. Accumulated cases amount to 45 per 100,000 inhabitants, which corresponds to a cumulative incidence of 0.05%, in 85 years. This indicates that early prevention of infection in canids would significantly reduce the disease, also reducing the number of accumulated cases of human dirofilariasis by D. repens. The interaction between the simulations generated by the model highlights the sensitivity of the epidemiological curve to the periodicity of seasonality, reaffirming the hypothesis of the probability of movement of the zoonotic disease to non-endemic areas, due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34800456, year = {2022}, author = {Lee, D and Shin, J and Song, Y and Chang, H and Cho, H and Park, J and Hong, J}, title = {The development process and significance of the 3rd National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2021-2025) of the Republic of Korea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {818}, number = {}, pages = {151728}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151728}, pmid = {34800456}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Republic of Korea ; }, abstract = {The Republic of Korea has developed its 3rd National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2021-2025) through joint work between government departments in 2020. This follows the Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth, which was enacted in 2010. In this paper, we presented the development process, main contents, significance, and limitations of the 3rd Adaptation Plan as a helpful case for the international community to consult in formulating their national adaptation plans. The plan aims to implement a climate-safe nation with the people, and its development process features a scientific evidence basis and participation of various parties. It systematically and organically recommends 232 measures to be implemented by the Korean government and related departments for the next five years to enhance the adaptive capacity to 84 climate risks. Through expert forums, working council on climate change adaptation, adaptation governance forums, online public hearings, and discussion on preparing public-oriented countermeasures, 41 representative public-oriented tasks in eight sectors were selected. The plan consists of measures to resolve national climate risks constructed based on scientific evidence. All adaptation parties participated in the entire process of establishing the adaptation plan and evaluating its implementation. Significantly, the 3rd Adaptation Plan attempts to overcome the limitations of the 2nd adaptation plan by planning for the operation of a citizen evaluation group. However, the plan's limitations have been identified as insufficient willingness to monitor and implement measures, differences in the spectrum of adaptation measures by a government department, and lack of publicity in the English language. The measures to deal with these shortcomings are being sought.}, }
@article {pmid34799528, year = {2022}, author = {Nicholas, P and Evans, LA and Albert, M and Kelly, D and Michelson, N}, title = {The nurse practitioner's role in addressing chronic sequelae of Lyme disease as a climate change related disease.}, journal = {Journal of the American Association of Nurse Practitioners}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {579-585}, pmid = {34799528}, issn = {2327-6924}, abstract = {A major health consequence of climate change is an increased prevalence of vector-borne diseases due to changes in temperatures and the environments in which vectors can survive and carry out transmissible activity. Because of climate change, emerging health challenges related to the warming of the planet have led to an increase in vector-borne diseases in broadening geographic areas. Individuals affected with Lyme disease may present with a variety of symptoms, which highlights the importance of illness recognition to ensure that a patient can receive timely treatment and effective support. Despite the focus on early detection and treatment of acute Lyme disease, chronic health problems associated with Lyme disease are an emerging problem in the 21st century. This article focuses on the role of nurse practitioners and members of the health professional team in the recognition, clinical care, patient education, and management of increasing rates of chronic Lyme disease.}, }
@article {pmid34798731, year = {2022}, author = {Lima, ARA and Baltazar-Soares, M and Garrido, S and Riveiro, I and Carrera, P and Piecho-Santos, AM and Peck, MA and Silva, G}, title = {Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {804}, number = {}, pages = {150167}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150167}, pmid = {34798731}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Forecasting ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change often leads to shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by changing the match-mismatch dynamics between these sensitive species within their environmental optima. Using present-day habitat suitability, we projected how different scenarios of climate change (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) may alter the large scale distribution of European sardine Sardina pilchardus (a model species) by 2050 and 2100. We evaluated the variability of species-specific environmental optima allowing a comparison between present-day and future scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, sea surface temperature and salinity and the interaction between current velocity and distance to the nearest coast were the main descriptors responsible for the main effects on sardine's distribution. Present-day and future potential "hotspots" for sardine were neritic zones (<250 km) with water currents <0.4 m s[-1], where SST was between 10 and 22 °C and SSS > 20 (PSU), on average. Most variability in projected shifts among climatic scenarios was in habitats with moderate to low suitability. By the end of this century, habitat suitability was projected to increase in the Canary Islands, Iberian Peninsula, central North Sea, northern Mediterranean, and eastern Black Sea and to decrease in the Atlantic African coast, southwest Mediterranean, English Channel, northern North Sea and Western U.K. A gradual poleward-eastward shift in sardine distribution was also projected among scenarios. This shift was most pronounced in 2100 under RCP 8.5. In that scenario, sardines had a 9.6% range expansion which included waters along the entire coast of Norway up and into the White Sea. As habitat suitability is mediated by the synergic effects of climate variability and change on species fitness, it is critical to apply models with robust underlying species-habitat data that integrate knowledge on the full range of processes shaping species productivity and distribution.}, }
@article {pmid34798716, year = {2022}, author = {Zhou, H and Ma, A and Zhou, X and Chen, X and Zhang, J and Gen, P and Liu, G and Wang, S and Zhuang, G}, title = {Soil phosphorus accumulation in mountainous alpine grassland contributes to positive climate change feedback via nitrifier and denitrifier community.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {804}, number = {}, pages = {150032}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150032}, pmid = {34798716}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Denitrification ; Ecosystem ; Feedback ; Grassland ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Phosphorus ; *Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Mountainous alpine ecosystems are sensitive to global change, where soil nutrient content would potentially vary under current climate change background, and thus possibly influence the activity of nitrifiers and denitrifiers, as well as N2O emissions. However, within mountainous alpine ecosystems, the potential variation of soil nutrients under current global change and the consequence to N2O emission from nitrification and denitrification are still unclarified, hampering a comprehensive understanding of the feedback mechanisms between the nitrogen cycle and climate change. In order to fill this knowledge gap, we selected alpine grasslands at three different elevations and investigated the distribution and environmental drivers of nitrifiers and denitrifiers. The results showed that the lowest elevation site tended to have higher total phosphorus (TP) accumulation within the topsoil. The abundance of functional groups, emission of CO2 and N2O, and the N2O/CO2 ratio showed a decreasing trend along elevation. TP was the greatest influence on denitrifier composition (nosZ/narG and nirS/nirK ratios) and considerably influenced nitrifier composition (AOA/AOB ratio), and was significantly correlated to the N2O/CO2 ratio. In microcosms of soils from the highest elevation site, TP addition decreased the ratios of nosZ/narG, nirS/nirK, and AOA/AOB, and increased N2O/CO2 ratio and N2O emission, thus contributing to positive climate change feedback. This study indicates the potential for change within the nitrifier and denitrifier communities under current climate change, and highlights the role TP plays in governing nitrification and denitrification in mountainous alpine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid34797382, year = {2022}, author = {West, GH and Kovacs, KF and Nayga, RM}, title = {The Influence of a Climate Change Narrative on the Stated Preferences for Long-term Groundwater Management.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {69}, number = {1}, pages = {61-74}, pmid = {34797382}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Groundwater ; Mississippi ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {The literature identifies cultural values and beliefs as key drivers of climate change risk perception, but evidence is lacking about how media narratives and cultural values influence preferences for adapting to environmental consequences of climate change, including groundwater shortage. We elicited groundwater preferences using a choice experiment survey involving outcomes of the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer. We randomly assigned respondents to an individualistic cultural narrative about climate change to test for framing effects predicted by culturally congruent and incongruent messaging. Results suggest that culturally incongruent messaging (i.e., to non-individualists) emboldens opposition and makes promoted groundwater policies less tractable. This is instructive to policy makers that identifying different stakeholders and avoiding incongruent messages about climate change could improve the effectiveness of collaborative water governance.}, }
@article {pmid34797111, year = {2021}, author = {Scheerens, C and Madzimbamuto, FD}, title = {Climate change, migration, and health(care) in primary care training.}, journal = {African journal of primary health care &amp; family medicine}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-e2}, pmid = {34797111}, issn = {2071-2936}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Health Facilities ; Humans ; Primary Health Care ; }, abstract = {No abstract available.}, }
@article {pmid34794844, year = {2021}, author = {Thibaudon, M and Besancenot, JP}, title = {[Outdoor aeroallergens and climate change].}, journal = {Revue des maladies respiratoires}, volume = {38}, number = {10}, pages = {1025-1036}, doi = {10.1016/j.rmr.2021.08.007}, pmid = {34794844}, issn = {1776-2588}, mesh = {*Allergens ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Pollen ; Seasons ; Spores, Fungal ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Pollen and fungal spore concentrations in outdoor air are partly dependent on atmospheric conditions. Since the climate is changing, there is a growing body of research on the effects of climate change on aeroallergens. The present article provides a rapid review of this literature, highlighting the points of agreement, but also drawing attention to the main mistakes to be avoided.<br><br>STATE OF ART: For pollen, the prevailing view is that rising temperatures lead to an earlier start to the pollen season, a longer season, increased allergenic potential and higher concentrations. However, there are exceptions: what is true for one taxon, in one place and at one time, can almost never be generalised. For fungal spores, it is even more difficult to state universal rules.<br><br>PERSPECTIVES: Four priorities can be set for future research: (1) to look for trends only on sufficiently long series and not to neglect possible trend reversals; (2) to give priority to the local scale and the separate consideration of the various pollen and mycological taxa; (3) not to limit oneself to temperature as an element of explanation, but also to consider the other elements of the climate; (4) not to try to explain any evolution in the abundance or seasonality of aeroallergens by climate change alone.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Many more analytical studies giving precedence to observation over reasoning are still required, without any preconceptions, before it is possible to synthesise the impacts of climate change on pollen and, even more so, on fungal spores.}, }
@article {pmid34794393, year = {2021}, author = {Byer, NW and Fountain, ED and Reid, BN and Miller, K and Kulzer, PJ and Peery, MZ}, title = {Land use and life history constrain adaptive genetic variation and reduce the capacity for climate change adaptation in turtles.}, journal = {BMC genomics}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {837}, pmid = {34794393}, issn = {1471-2164}, support = {WIS01865//U.S. Department of Agriculture/ ; WIS01865//U.S. Department of Agriculture/ ; WIS01865//U.S. Department of Agriculture/ ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Genomics ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; *Turtles/genetics ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Rapid anthropogenic climate change will require species to adapt to shifting environmental conditions, with successful adaptation dependent upon current patterns of genetic variation. While landscape genomic approaches allow for exploration of local adaptation in non-model systems, most landscape genomics studies of adaptive capacity are limited to exploratory identification of potentially important functional genes, often without a priori expectations as to the gene functions that may be most important for climate change responses. In this study, we integrated targeted sequencing of genes of known function and genotyping of single-nucleotide polymorphisms to examine spatial, environmental, and species-specific patterns of potential local adaptation in two co-occuring turtle species: the Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) and the snapping turtle (Chelydra serpentina).<br><br>RESULTS: We documented divergent patterns of spatial clustering between neutral and putatively adaptive genetic variation in both species. Environmental associations varied among gene regions and between species, with stronger environmental associations detected for genes involved in stress response and for the more specialized Blanding's turtle. Land cover appeared to be more important than climate in shaping spatial variation in functional genes, indicating that human landscape alterations may affect adaptive capacity important for climate change responses.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence that responses to climate change will be contingent on species-specific adaptive capacity and past history of exposure to human land cover change.}, }
@article {pmid34794101, year = {2021}, author = {Stollberg, J and Jonas, E}, title = {Existential threat as a challenge for individual and collective engagement: Climate change and the motivation to act.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {145-150}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.10.004}, pmid = {34794101}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {Anxiety ; *Climate Change ; Emotions ; Guilt ; Humans ; *Motivation ; }, abstract = {The global climate crisis can be perceived as a threat to existential human needs like control, certainty, and personal existence. These threat appraisals elicit an affective state of individual anxiety - one of the strongest motivators of individual pro-environmental behavior and collective policies and activism. Direct action against a threat is associated with other affective approach-motivated states that help to overcome anxiety: Recent findings show collective emotions of anger, guilt, and 'being moved' increase collective engagement but also show a positive relationship between positive activation and individual behavior. Climate threat furthermore promotes palliative responses, such as ingroup defense, identification with nature, or salient common humanity. Here, collective responses seem to reduce anxiety, and when combined with pro-environmental norms, even promote pro-environmental action.}, }
@article {pmid34792675, year = {2023}, author = {Barbieri, M and Barberio, MD and Banzato, F and Billi, A and Boschetti, T and Franchini, S and Gori, F and Petitta, M}, title = {Climate change and its effect on groundwater quality.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {1133-1144}, pmid = {34792675}, issn = {1573-2983}, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Groundwater/chemistry ; Water Quality ; Italy ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Knowing water quality at larger scales and related ground and surface water interactions impacted by land use and climate is essential to our future protection and restoration investments. Population growth has driven humankind into the Anthropocene where continuous water quality degradation is a global phenomenon as shown by extensive recalcitrant chemical contamination, increased eutrophication, hazardous algal blooms, and faecal contamination connected with microbial hazards antibiotic resistance. In this framework, climate change and related extreme events indeed exacerbate the negative trend in water quality. Notwithstanding the increasing concern in climate change and water security, research linking climate change and groundwater quality remain early. Additional research is required to improve our knowledge of climate and groundwater interactions and integrated groundwater management. Long-term monitoring of groundwater, surface water, vegetation, and land-use patterns must be supported and fortified to quantify baseline properties. Concerning the ways climate change affects water quality, limited literature data are available. This study investigates the link between climate change and groundwater quality aquifers by examining case studies of regional carbonate aquifers located in Central Italy. This study also highlights the need for strategic groundwater management policy and planning to decrease groundwater quality due to aquifer resource shortages and climate change factors. In this scenario, the role of the Society of Environmental Geochemistry is to work together within and across geochemical environments linked with the health of plants, animals, and humans to respond to multiple challenges and opportunities made by global warming.}, }
@article {pmid34792670, year = {2021}, author = {Sharannya, TM and Venkatesh, K and Mudbhatkal, A and Dineshkumar, M and Mahesha, A}, title = {Effects of land use and climate change on water scarcity in rivers of the Western Ghats of India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {12}, pages = {820}, pmid = {34792670}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {Grant No. 28/8/2016-R&amp;D/308-336 dtd. February 9, 2018//Ministry of Jal Shakti, Government of India/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hydrology ; India ; *Rivers ; Water Insecurity ; }, abstract = {This paper assesses the long-term combined effects of land use (LU) and climate change on river hydrology and water scarcity of two rivers of the Western Ghats of India. The historical LU changes were studied for four decades (1988-2016) using the maximum likelihood algorithm and the long-term LU (2016-2075) was estimated using the Dyna-CLUE prediction model. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) were utilized to assess the effects of climate change (CC) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for hydrological modeling of the two river catchments. To characterize granular effects of LU and CC on regional hydrology, a scenario approach was adopted and three scenarios depicting near-future (2006-2040), mid-future (2041-2070), and far-future (2071-2100) based on climate were established. The present rate of LU change indicated a reduction in forest cover by 20% and an increase in urbanized areas by 9.5% between 1988 and 2016. It was estimated that forest cover in the catchments may be expected to halve compared to the present-day LU (55% in 2016 to 23% in 2075), along with large-scale conversion to agricultural lands (13.5% in 2016 to 49.5% in 2075). As a result of changes to LU and forecasted climate, it was found that rivers in the Western Ghats of India might face scarcity of fresh water in the next two decades until the year 2040. However, because of large-scale LU conversion toward the year 2050, streamflow in rivers might increase as high as 70.94% at certain times of the year. Although an increase in streamflow is perceived favorable, the streamflow changes during summer and winter may be expected to affect the cropping calendar and crop yield. The changes to streamflow were also linked to a 4.2% increase in ecologically sensitive wetlands of the Aghanashini river catchment.}, }
@article {pmid34792249, year = {2021}, author = {Isaacs, D and Stanley, F}, title = {Do not despair about climate change.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {57}, number = {11}, pages = {1732-1734}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.15692}, pmid = {34792249}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Depression ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34792248, year = {2021}, author = {Isaacs, D and Kiang, K and Skinner, JR}, title = {Time to act on climate change.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {57}, number = {11}, pages = {1735}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.15792}, pmid = {34792248}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34792247, year = {2021}, author = {Kiang, K}, title = {Children's voices: Young people thinking about climate change.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {57}, number = {11}, pages = {1789-1791}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.15709}, pmid = {34792247}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Thinking ; }, }
@article {pmid34792245, year = {2021}, author = {Williams, PC and Marais, B and Isaacs, D and Preisz, A}, title = {Ethical considerations regarding the effects of climate change and planetary health on children.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {57}, number = {11}, pages = {1775-1780}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.15704}, pmid = {34792245}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Child ; Child Health ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases ; Humans ; Mental Health ; Planets ; }, abstract = {Climate change represents one of the most significant health challenges and global inequities of our generation. As a 'wicked' problem, climate change imposes an involuntary exposure on vulnerable individuals and societies that is regressive in its nature, with those least responsible for destroying planetary health at greatest risk of suffering the direct and indirect health consequences of unabated warming of the planet. The current and future generations of children are the most vulnerable population to suffer the effects of climate change. By 2030, there will be 131 000 additional child deaths each year if climate mitigation strategies are not enacted, driven by the synergy of an increasing burden of infectious diseases, food insecurity and political instability. Over half a billion of the world's children live in areas vulnerable to extreme weather events, and there is a pressing risk that our current lack of action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will result in today's children, and future generations, being the first to have poorer physical and mental health than previous generations - creating a significant intergenerational ethical dilemma. Child health-care professionals need to advocate for policies to address climate change that consider the complex health, planetary and ethical considerations necessary to solve the most significant risk to our children's health today. Without immediate action, the health of the current and future generations of children is perilous.}, }
@article {pmid34792244, year = {2021}, author = {Godden, NJ and Farrant, BM and Yallup Farrant, J and Heyink, E and Carot Collins, E and Burgemeister, B and Tabeshfar, M and Barrow, J and West, M and Kieft, J and Rothwell, M and Leviston, Z and Bailey, S and Blaise, M and Cooper, T}, title = {Climate change, activism, and supporting the mental health of children and young people: Perspectives from Western Australia.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {57}, number = {11}, pages = {1759-1764}, pmid = {34792244}, issn = {1440-1754}, support = {//Australian Indigenous Leadership Centre/ ; DP210101258//Australian Research Council/ ; 1098844//National Health and Medical Research Council/ ; //Perpetual Ltd./ ; //Plan International Australia/ ; //Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Anxiety ; Anxiety Disorders ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {The climate crisis has detrimental impacts on the mental health and wellbeing of children and young people. Psychological effects include feelings of fear, overwhelm, worry, distress, hopelessness and anger; PTSD; depression; anxiety; phobias; panic disorder; sleep disturbances; attachment disorders; learning difficulties; substance abuse; shock and trauma symptoms; adjustment problems; behavioural problems; and, suicidal thinking. First Nations' children and young people are particularly at risk due to loss of place, identity, culture, land and customs informed by kinship relationships with the Earth; while sustainable land use practices and connection to Country and community can enhance climate resilience. In Western Australia (WA), some young people engage in climate activism - including striking from school - to demand government action to address the causes of climate change, including colonisation and capitalism. Climate activism can promote resilience, particularly when children and young people can emotionally engage in the climate crisis; when mental health is systemically supported; when climate communication is transparent and comprehensive; and, when activism is informed by the knowledges and wisdoms of First Nations peoples and grounded on Country. This article is co-authored by WA young people, Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal academics, activists and practitioners engaged in youth, mental health and climate justice spaces. We argue for structural change to address the causes of the climate crisis, alongside enhanced evidence and approaches to appropriately support the mental health of children and young people. Furthermore, we support the call of Aboriginal peoples to ensure culturally appropriate, place-based responses based in caring for Country.}, }
@article {pmid34792241, year = {2021}, author = {Quilty, S and Jupurrurla, NF}, title = {Climate change: A Wumpurrarni-kari and Papulanyi-kari shared problem.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {57}, number = {11}, pages = {1745-1748}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.15740}, pmid = {34792241}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34792238, year = {2021}, author = {Williams, PC and Bartlett, AW and Howard-Jones, A and McMullan, B and Khatami, A and Britton, PN and Marais, BJ}, title = {Impact of climate change and biodiversity collapse on the global emergence and spread of infectious diseases.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {57}, number = {11}, pages = {1811-1818}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.15681}, pmid = {34792238}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Child ; Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The reality of climate change and biodiversity collapse is irrefutable in the 21st century, with urgent action required not only to conserve threatened species but also to protect human life and wellbeing. This existential threat forces us to recognise that our existence is completely dependent upon well-functioning ecosystems that sustain the diversity of life on our planet, including that required for human health. By synthesising data on the ecology, epidemiology and evolutionary biology of various pathogens, we are gaining a better understanding of factors that underlie disease emergence and spread. However, our knowledge remains rudimentary with limited insight into the complex feedback loops that underlie ecological stability, which are at risk of rapidly unravelling once certain tipping points are breached. In this paper, we consider the impact of climate change and biodiversity collapse on the ever-present risk of infectious disease emergence and spread. We review historical and contemporaneous infectious diseases that have been influenced by human environmental manipulation, including zoonoses and vector- and water-borne diseases, alongside an evaluation of the impact of migration, urbanisation and human density on transmissible diseases. The current lack of urgency in political commitment to address climate change warrants enhanced understanding and action from paediatricians - to ensure that we safeguard the health and wellbeing of children in our care today, as well as those of future generations.}, }
@article {pmid34792236, year = {2021}, author = {Skinner, JR}, title = {Doctors and climate change: First do no harm.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {57}, number = {11}, pages = {1754-1758}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.15658}, pmid = {34792236}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; *Physicians ; }, abstract = {Imagine a herd of cows in a fenced, lush green meadow shared with birds, bees and other small animals. Now imagine that everything the cows eat or drink comes in a plastic container. Humanity is on an appalling trajectory. Most of us are now aware that a crisis is upon us. If you are like me, you are struggling to consider what you should do about it. Those who read this journal are for the most part child health professionals; it is our job to look after children. This job must surely include caring for their future. Yet we, like most of the rest of human society, are actively supporting behaviours which will deprive children of their future, and potentially the future of much of the animal kingdom along with them.}, }
@article {pmid34792235, year = {2021}, author = {Romanello, M and McGushin, A and MacGuire, FAS and Sly, PD and Jennings, B and Requejo, J and Costello, A}, title = {Monitoring climate change and child health: The case for putting children in all policies.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {57}, number = {11}, pages = {1736-1740}, pmid = {34792235}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change is threatening the health of current and future generations of children. The most recent evidence from the Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change finds declining trends in yield potential of major crops, rising heatwave exposures, and increasing climate suitability for the transmission of infectious diseases, putting at risk the health and wellbeing of children around the world. However, if children are considered at the core of planning and implementation, the policy responses to climate change could yield enormous benefits for the health and wellbeing of children throughout their lives. Child health professionals have a role to play in ensuring this, with the beneficiaries of their involvement ranging from the individual child to the global community. The newly established Children in All Policies 2030 initiative will work with the Lancet Countdown to provide the evidence on the climate change responses necessary to protect and promote the health of children.}, }
@article {pmid34792230, year = {2021}, author = {Green, D}, title = {Climate change and child health: A parent's perspective.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {57}, number = {11}, pages = {1765-1766}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.15655}, pmid = {34792230}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Parent-Child Relations ; Parents ; }, }
@article {pmid34792115, year = {2022}, author = {Hullé, M and Till, M and Plantegenest, M}, title = {Global Warming Could Magnify Insect-Driven Apparent Competition Between Native and Introduced Host Plants in Sub-Antarctic Islands.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {204-209}, doi = {10.1093/ee/nvab122}, pmid = {34792115}, issn = {1938-2936}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Insecta ; Introduced Species ; Islands ; }, abstract = {Pristine sub-Antarctic islands terrestrial ecosystems, including many endemic species, are highly threatened by human-induced cosmopolitan plant invasion. We propose that native plant suppression could be further facilitated by the subsequent invasion by generalist pest species that could exacerbate their competitive exclusion through the process of apparent competition. By comparing the biological parameters of an invasive aphid species, Myzus ascalonicus, on one native (Acaena magellanica) and one invasive (Senecio vulgaris) plant species, we showed that survival and fecundity were higher and development time lower on the native plant species than on the invasive one. Moreover, comparing the effect of a temperature increase on the population dynamics of M. ascalonicus on the two plants, we showed that the relative profitability of the native species is further amplified by warming. Hence, while pest population doubling time is 28% higher on the invasive plant under current temperature, it would become 40% higher with an increase in temperature of 3°C. Consequently, our findings demonstrate that global warming could exacerbate competitive exclusion of native plants by invasive plants in sub-Antarctic islands by its indirect effect on the apparent competition mediated by generalist phytophagous pests.}, }
@article {pmid34791538, year = {2023}, author = {Yanda, PZ and Mabhuye, EB and Mwajombe, A}, title = {Linking Coastal and Marine Resources Endowments and Climate Change Resilience of Tanzania Coastal Communities.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {71}, number = {1}, pages = {15-28}, pmid = {34791538}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Financial Management ; Tanzania ; Humans ; }, abstract = {This paper presents findings on the links between coastal/marine resources endowment and climate change resilience to coastal communities in Mchungu and Kivinja' A' village on the coastal zone of Rufiji District in Tanzania. The study focused on exploring the existing coastal resources and their support to communities' livelihood, climatic threats that are experienced, and the role of coastal resources in enhancing communities' resilience. It further sought to establish other enabling factors for climate change adaptation (e.g., gender, education, governance, by-laws, and membership in social networks). The study used focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and household surveys in data collection. Findings show that Mchungu village is endowed with fish, mangrove, natural canal, and floodplains as their major coastal resources, while Kivinja' A' is rich in salt and coconut production. Communities in both villages exploit these coastal resources for their livelihood activities such as fishing, agriculture, and business. The study further found that coastal communities are already experiencing the effects of climate change through temperature rise, flooding, drought, sea-level rise, and storm surges. These affect household food security in terms of fish catch and crop production. The study revealed that coastal and marine resources were important for increasing community resilience (P ≤ 0.05) to climate change impacts in the studied villages. However, household resilience to climate change impacts was also influenced by gender, by-laws, education, and membership in social networks.}, }
@article {pmid34790155, year = {2021}, author = {Yang, X and Tseng, Y and Lee, B}, title = {Merging the Social Influence Theory and the Goal-Framing Theory to Understand Consumers' Green Purchasing Behavior: Does the Level of Sensitivity to Climate Change Really Matter?.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {766754}, pmid = {34790155}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {This study explored the formation of consumers' green purchasing behavior (GPB) and investigated the moderating effect of sensitivity to climate change (SCC) to address this current knowledge gap. An integrated model merging the Social Influence Theory and the Goal-framing Theory was developed with the Stimulus-Organism-Response (S-O-R) paradigm. An empirical study was conducted, surveying 583 respondents and analyzing the questionnaire results using structural equation modeling. The results show that media, family, and peer influence (PEI) can effectively activate the consumers' goal frames. Hedonic and normative goals had significant positive influences on GPB, while gain goals had no significant effect. SCC was found to significantly moderate social influence on GPB through the consumers' goal frames. This research provided strong empirical support on understanding the relationship between social influence and GPB through three goal frames. In addition, the potential differences of the GPB formation process in two subgroups (high SCC and low SCC) are also investigated. The results of this study can help green practitioners develop more effective marketing strategies and incentives targeted to consumers with varying levels of environmental consciousness or sensitivity.}, }
@article {pmid34789900, year = {2021}, author = {Li, J and Thompson, DWJ}, title = {Widespread changes in surface temperature persistence under climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {599}, number = {7885}, pages = {425-430}, pmid = {34789900}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Models ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Oceans and Seas ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been and will be accompanied by widespread changes in surface temperature. It is clear that these changes include global-wide increases in mean surface temperature and changes in temperature variance that are more regionally-dependent[1-3]. It is less clear whether they also include changes in the persistence of surface temperature. This is important as the effects of weather events on ecosystems and society depend critically on the length of the event. Here we provide an extensive survey of the response of surface temperature persistence to climate change over the twenty-first century from the output of 150 simulations run on four different Earth system models, and from simulations run on simplified models with varying representations of radiative processes and large-scale dynamics. Together, the results indicate that climate change simulations are marked by widespread changes in surface temperature persistence that are generally most robust over ocean areas and arise due to a seemingly broad range of physical processes. The findings point to both the robustness of widespread changes in persistence under climate change, and the critical need to better understand, simulate and constrain such changes.}, }
@article {pmid34787703, year = {2022}, author = {Niella, Y and Butcher, P and Holmes, B and Barnett, A and Harcourt, R}, title = {Forecasting intraspecific changes in distribution of a wide-ranging marine predator under climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {198}, number = {1}, pages = {111-124}, pmid = {34787703}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Sharks ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Globally, marine animal distributions are shifting in response to a changing climate. These shifts are usually considered at the species level, but individuals are likely to differ in how they respond to the changing conditions. Here, we investigate how movement behaviour and, therefore, redistribution, would differ by sex and maturation class in a wide-ranging marine predator. We tracked 115 tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) from 2002 to 2020 and forecast class-specific distributions through to 2030, including environmental factors and predicted occurrence of potential prey. Generalised Linear and Additive Models revealed that water temperature change, particularly at higher latitudes, was the factor most associated with shark movements. Females dispersed southwards during periods of warming temperatures, and while juvenile females preferred a narrow thermal range between 22 and 23 °C, adult female and juvenile male presence was correlated with either lower (< 22 °C) or higher (> 23 °C) temperatures. During La Niña, sharks moved towards higher latitudes and used shallower isobaths. Inclusion of predicted distribution of their putative prey significantly improved projections of suitable habitats for all shark classes, compared to simpler models using temperature alone. Tiger shark range off the east coast of Australia is predicted to extend ~ 3.5° south towards the east coast of Tasmania, particularly for juvenile males. Our framework highlights the importance of combining long-term movement data with multi-factor habitat projections to identify heterogeneity within species when predicting consequences of climate change. Recognising intraspecific variability will improve conservation and management strategies and help anticipate broader ecosystem consequences of species redistribution due to ocean warming.}, }
@article {pmid34787308, year = {2022}, author = {Mieczkowska, K and Stringer, T and Barbieri, JS and Williams, M and Rosenbach, M}, title = {Surveying the attitudes of dermatologists regarding climate change.}, journal = {The British journal of dermatology}, volume = {186}, number = {4}, pages = {748-750}, doi = {10.1111/bjd.20900}, pmid = {34787308}, issn = {1365-2133}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; *Dermatologists ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid34787222, year = {2021}, author = {Santos, L and Oliveira, JE and Maduro-Abreu, A and Litre, G and Sátiro, GS and Soares, DC}, title = {[Climate change, changes in productivity and health: complex interactions in the national literature].}, journal = {Ciencia &amp; saude coletiva}, volume = {26}, number = {suppl 3}, pages = {5315-5328}, doi = {10.1590/1413-812320212611.3.14622019}, pmid = {34787222}, issn = {1678-4561}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, abstract = {This article reviews the scientific output published in national journals on the interactions that are established between the concepts of climate change, productive changes (including changes in land use) and human health in the last ten years (from 2008 to 2017), highlighting the theoretical-methodological trends of this output. To achieve this, a review of the literature was made from publications made available in the Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO) and the CAPES Journals Portal. The results obtained demonstrate the advances made in the last ten years by the interdisciplinary teams that dealt with the subject over the period analyzed. At the same time, this article identifies the research gaps that can be exploited in future research. In addition, a positive sophistication and refinement of analytical tools and instruments have been identified that are able to gather consistent information about a broad and complex reality characterized by the diversity of biomes, climatic scenarios and productive systems.}, }
@article {pmid34787038, year = {2021}, author = {Evans, MS and Munslow, B}, title = {Climate change, health, and conflict in Africa's arc of instability.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {141}, number = {6}, pages = {338-341}, pmid = {34787038}, issn = {1757-9147}, mesh = {Africa ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34786827, year = {2022}, author = {Tscholl, T and Nachman, G and Spangl, B and Walzer, A}, title = {Heat waves affect prey and predators differently via developmental plasticity: who may benefit most from global warming?.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {78}, number = {3}, pages = {1099-1108}, doi = {10.1002/ps.6722}, pmid = {34786827}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {P32474//Austrian Science Fund/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Male ; *Mites ; Pest Control, Biological ; Predatory Behavior ; Species Specificity ; *Tetranychidae ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate warming is considered to affect the characteristics of heat waves by increasing their duration, frequency and intensity, which can have dramatic consequences for ectothermic arthropods. However, arthropods may respond to heat waves via plastic modifications, which could differently affect a predator and its prey. We examined this assumption using prominent counterparts in biological control, the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis and its prey, the spider mite Tetranychus urticae. Individuals of both species were separately exposed to mild and extreme heat waves during their juvenile development.<br><br>RESULTS: Both species developed faster during extreme heat waves, but the proportional increase of the developmental rates was higher in the prey. Independent of sex, P. persimilis reached smaller size at maturity under extreme heat waves, whereas the body size modifications were sex-dependent in T. urticae: males became smaller, but females were able to maintain their size.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: An accelerated development may result in the reduction of the exposure time of susceptible juvenile stages to heat waves and prey stages to predators. Plastic size adjustments caused a shift in the female predator-prey body size ratio in favor of the prey, which may lead to higher heat resistance and reduced predation risk for prey females under extreme heat waves. In conclusion, our findings indicate that species-specific shifts in age and size at maturity may result in lower suppression efficacy of the predator P. persimilis against its prey T. urticae with severe consequences for biological control of spider mites, if global warming continues.}, }
@article {pmid34786759, year = {2022}, author = {Morgan, T and Ryan, B}, title = {How does the optometry profession move up a gear to tackle the problem of climate change?.}, journal = {Ophthalmic &amp; physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists)}, volume = {42}, number = {1}, pages = {4-7}, doi = {10.1111/opo.12920}, pmid = {34786759}, issn = {1475-1313}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Optometry ; }, }
@article {pmid34786573, year = {2022}, author = {Healy, JP and Jensen, A and Power, MB and McKibben, B and Cohen, G and Basu, G}, title = {COVID-19 and climate change: Crises of structural racism.}, journal = {The journal of climate change and health}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {100092}, pmid = {34786573}, issn = {2667-2782}, }
@article {pmid34785749, year = {2021}, author = {da Costa, JC and de Souza, SS and Castro, JDS and Amanajás, RD and Val, AL}, title = {Climate change affects the parasitism rate and impairs the regulation of genes related to oxidative stress and ionoregulation of Colossoma macropomum.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {22350}, pmid = {34785749}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Characiformes/metabolism/parasitology ; *Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; *Gene Expression Regulation ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; *Oxidative Stress ; *Water-Electrolyte Balance ; }, abstract = {Global climate change represents a critical threat to the environment since it influences organismic interactions, such as the host-parasite systems, mainly in ectotherms including fishes. Rising temperature and CO2 are predicted to affect this interaction other and critical physiological processes in fish. Herein, we investigated the effects of different periods of exposure to climate change scenarios and to two degrees of parasitism by monogeneans in the host-parasite interaction, as well as the antioxidant and ionoregulatory responses of tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum), an important species in South American fishing and aquaculture. We hypothesized that temperature and CO2 changes in combination with parasite infection would interfere with the host's physiological processes that are related to oxidative stress and ionoregulation. We experimentally exposed C. macropomum to low and high levels of parasitism in the current and extreme climate scenarios (4.5 °C and 900 ppm CO2 above current levels) for periods of seven and thirty days and we use as analyzed factors; the exposure time, the climate scenario and parasitism level in a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial through a three-way ANOVA as being fish the experimental unit (n = 8). An analysis of gill enzymatic and gene expression profile was performed to assess physiological (SOD, GPx and Na[+]/K[+]-ATPase enzymes) and molecular (Nrf2, SOD1, HIF-1α and NKA α1a genes) responses. A clear difference in the parasitism levels of individuals exposed to the extreme climate scenario was observed with a rapid and aggressive increase that was higher after 7 days of exposure though showed a decrease after 30 days. The combination of exposure to the extreme climate change scenario and parasitism caused oxidative stress and osmoregulatory disturbance, which was observed through the analysis of gene expression (Nrf2, SOD1, HIF-1α and NKA α1a) and antioxidant and ionoregulatory enzymes (SOD, GPx and Na[+]/K[+]-ATPase) on the host, possibly linked to inflammatory processes caused by the high degree of parasitism. In the coming years, these conditions may result in losses of performance for this species, and as such will represent ecological damage and economical losses, and result in a possible vulnerability in relation to food security.}, }
@article {pmid34785707, year = {2021}, author = {Coan, TG and Boussalis, C and Cook, J and Nanko, MO}, title = {Computer-assisted classification of contrarian claims about climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {22320}, pmid = {34785707}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {ES/N012283/1//Economic and Social Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {A growing body of scholarship investigates the role of misinformation in shaping the debate on climate change. Our research builds on and extends this literature by (1) developing and validating a comprehensive taxonomy of climate contrarianism, (2) conducting the largest content analysis to date on contrarian claims, (3) developing a computational model to accurately classify specific claims, and (4) drawing on an extensive corpus from conservative think-tank (CTTs) websites and contrarian blogs to construct a detailed history of claims over the past 20 years. Our study finds that the claims utilized by CTTs and contrarian blogs have focused on attacking the integrity of climate science and scientists and, increasingly, has challenged climate policy and renewable energy. We further demonstrate the utility of our approach by exploring the influence of corporate and foundation funding on the production and dissemination of specific contrarian claims.}, }
@article {pmid34784582, year = {2022}, author = {Kane, T}, title = {Holding World Leaders Accountable for Climate Change-and Public Health-Commitments Through Individual Active Transportation Efforts.}, journal = {Journal of physical activity &amp; health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1123/jpah.2021-0634}, pmid = {34784582}, issn = {1543-5474}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Exercise ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Social Responsibility ; Transportation ; }, }
@article {pmid34783833, year = {2021}, author = {Kuehn, BM}, title = {WHO, Global Health Workers Demand Urgent Action on Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {326}, number = {19}, pages = {1898}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2021.20063}, pmid = {34783833}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid34783491, year = {2021}, author = {Wellbery, CE and Lewandowski, A and Holder, C}, title = {Climate Change and the Local Environment: Communicating with Your Patients about Health Impacts.}, journal = {American family physician}, volume = {104}, number = {5}, pages = {526-530}, pmid = {34783491}, issn = {1532-0650}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; *Child Health/standards/trends ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure/adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; Physician-Patient Relations ; Public Health/*methods ; *Quality of Life ; Social Determinants of Health ; Social Responsibility ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid34783410, year = {2022}, author = {Sirois-Delisle, C and Kerr, JT}, title = {Climate change aggravates non-target effects of pesticides on dragonflies at macroecological scales.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {32}, number = {2}, pages = {e2494}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2494}, pmid = {34783410}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Odonata ; *Pesticides/toxicity ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Critical gaps in understanding how species respond to environmental change limit our capacity to address conservation risks in a timely way. Here, we examine the direct and interactive effects of key global change drivers, including climate change, land use change, and pesticide use, on persistence of 104 odonate species between two time periods (1980-2002 and 2008-2018) within 100 × 100 km quadrats across the USA using phylogenetic mixed models. Non-target effects of pesticides interacted with higher maximum temperatures to contribute to odonate declines. Closely related species responded similarly to global change drivers, indicating a potential role of inherited traits in species' persistence or decline. Species shifting their range to higher latitudes were more robust to negative impacts of global change drivers generally. Inherited traits related to dispersal abilities and establishment in new places may govern both species' acclimation to global change and their abilities to expand their range limits, respectively. This work is among the first to assess effects of climate change, land use change, and land use intensification together on Odonata, a significant step that improves understanding of multispecies effects of global change on invertebrates, and further identifies conditions contributing to global insect loss.}, }
@article {pmid34780014, year = {2022}, author = {Liu, L and Zhang, Y and Huang, Y and Zhang, J and Mou, Q and Qiu, J and Wang, R and Li, Y and Zhang, D}, title = {Simulation of potential suitable distribution of original species of Fritillariae Cirrhosae Bulbus in China under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {15}, pages = {22237-22250}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-021-17338-0}, pmid = {34780014}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {#2019QZKK0402//tibetan plateau scientific expedition and research program (step)/ ; Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Key-05-06//technological development of meteorological administration/heavy rain and drought-flood disasters in plateau and basin key laboratory of sichuan province/ ; S202010639044//innovation and entrepreneurship training program for college students in sichuan province in 2020/ ; 31660081//national natural science foundation of china/ ; 32060091//national natural science foundation of china/ ; }, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fritillaria ; Humans ; Medicine, Chinese Traditional ; *Plants, Medicinal ; }, abstract = {Fritillariae Cirrhosae Bulbus (FCB) is a famous traditional Chinese medicine, mainly used for relieving cough and resolving phlegm. According to Chinese Pharmacopoeia (2020), the medicine comes from dried bulbs of five species and one variety in Fritillaria. Due to climate change and human disturbance, the wild resources have become critically endangered in recent years. Following three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) under 2050s and 2070s, geographic information technology (GIS) and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the ecological suitability of FCB, a third-grade rare and endangered medicinal plant species. The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of FCB were altitude, human activity intensity, and mean temperature of coldest quarter. Under current climate situation, the highly suitable areas were mainly located in the east of Qinghai Tibet Plateau, including Western Sichuan, southeastern Tibet, southern Gansu, Northwestern Yunnan, and Eastern Qinghai, with a total area of 31.47×10[4] km[2], the area within the nature reserve was 7.13×10[4] km[2], indicating that there was a large protection gap. Under the future climate change scenarios, the areas of the highly and poorly suitable areas of FCB showed a decreasing trend, while the areas of the moderately and total suitable areas showed an increasing trend. The geometric center of the total suitable area of the medicine will move to the northwest. The results could provide a strategic guidance for protection,development, and utilization of FCB though its prediction of potential distribution based on the key variables of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34779930, year = {2021}, author = {Heydari Alamdarloo, E and Moradi, E and Abdolshahnejad, M and Fatahi, Y and Khosravi, H and da Silva, AM}, title = {Analyzing WSTP trend: a new method for global warming assessment.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {12}, pages = {806}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-021-09600-2}, pmid = {34779930}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This paper tries to introduce a time-series of temperature parameters as a potential method for studying the global warming. So, we investigated the spatial-temporal variations of warm-season temperature parameters (WSTP), including start time, end time, length of season, base value, peak time, peak value, amplitude, large integrated value, right drive, and left drive, using a database of 30 years' period in different climates of Iran. We used daily temperature data from 1989 to 2018 over Iran to extract the parameters by TIMESAT software. We studied the trend analysis of WSTP through the Mann-Kendall method. Then, we considered the Pearson correlation coefficient to calculate the correlation between WSTP and time. We assessed the trends of the slope using a simple linear regression method. Then, we compared the results of the WSTP trend analysis in climatic zones. Our results accused the hyper-arid climatic zone has the longest warm season (194.89 days a year). The warm season in this region starts earlier than other regions and increases with moderate speed (left drive, 0.19 °C day[-1]). Then, it reaches a peak value (31.3 °C) earlier than the different climatic zones. On the other hand, the humid regions' warm season starts with the shortest length and ends later than the other climatic zones (112.1 and 297.5 days a year for start and end times, respectively). We detected that the trend of the start time parameter has decreased by 98.02% of the study area during the last 30 years. The base value, length, and large integrated value parameters have an increasing trend of 66.47%, 80.11%, and 92.95% in Iran. The highest correlation coefficient with time was for start time and large integrated value parameters. Hence, the start time and large integrated value parameters have almost the most negative (< - 0.5) and positive (> 5) trend slope, among other parameters, respectively. In general, these results demonstrate that the studied region has faced global warming impacts over time by increasing the warm season and thermal energy, especially in arid and hyper-arid. We highlight the necessity of planning the land use under the high natural vulnerability of the studied local, especially in this new age of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid34778866, year = {2022}, author = {Latkin, C and Dayton, L and Coyle, C and Yi, G and Winiker, A and German, D}, title = {The association between climate change attitudes and COVID-19 attitudes: The link is more than political ideology[✰,✰✰,★].}, journal = {The journal of climate change and health}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {100099}, pmid = {34778866}, issn = {2667-2782}, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are two current global threats. This study examined the relationship between climate change attitudes and COVID-19 behaviors and risk perceptions. Drivers of climate change attitudes and COVID-19 behaviors were also assessed. Study participants were an online sample of 520 respondents from a longitudinal study of COVID-19 and well-being in the US. Logistic regression models were used to examine the outcomes of climate change opinions and COVID-19 perceptions and prevention behaviors (perceived COVID-19 risk, mask wearing, social distancing, and vaccine intentions). Covariates included political ideology, conspiracy beliefs, and trust in scientific information about COVID-19. In the multivariable models of COVID-19 perceptions and prevention behaviors, climate change opinions were also included as a covariate. In these models, climate change attitudes were significantly associated with perceived risk of COVID-19, always wearing masks, decreased time spent with others due to COVID-19, and intention to get a COVID-19 vaccine. In adjusted models, the odds of wearing a mask increased 41% (CI: 1.11-1.78) for every 1-point increase on the climate attitude scale and decreased 13% (CI: 0.79-0.96) if the participant distrusted COVID-19 information. Those who reported distrust of COVID-19 information (aOR: 1.61, CI: 1.40-1.85), politically conservative ideology (aOR: 1.24, CI: 1.04-1.47), lower concern about climate change (aOR: 0.71, CI: 0.53-0.97), female sex (aOR: 2.39 CI: 1.38-4.13), and lower disbelief in conspiracy theories (aOR: 0.63, CI: 0.51-0.80) had higher odds of not intending to be vaccinated. These findings suggest that climate change attitudes are linked to COVID-19 behaviors and perceptions, which are not completely driven by political ideology or trust in scientific information.}, }
@article {pmid34778714, year = {2021}, author = {Daniels, TL}, title = {Re-designing America's suburbs for the age of climate change and pandemics.}, journal = {Socio-ecological practice research}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {225-236}, pmid = {34778714}, issn = {2524-5287}, abstract = {The USA is the leading emitter of greenhouse gases among the developed countries, in part because it is the only developed country with more of its population in suburbs than in cities. Cities produce less greenhouse gas emissions per capita than suburbs. Meanwhile, the US and the world have been wrestling with the public health emergency of the COVID-19 pandemic. But as US cities recover from the pandemic, they are unlikely to add more population than their suburbs because of changes in favor of working from home, online shopping, and the search for more affordable housing and green space, as well as concerns about population density and contagious diseases. So, the challenge is how to design and redevelop suburbs to make them more environmentally, socially, and economically sustainable to address both climate change and the threat of future pandemics. A sustainable suburb scenario offers an alternative to the sprawling development, separation of land uses and income classes, and automobile dependence that characterizes the typical American suburban landscape. This essay reviews the literature on re-designing suburbs and describes and evaluates both a business-as-usual suburb scenario and a sustainable suburb scenario. Though challenges exist, sustainable suburbs will be needed in order to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions, to achieve greater resilience in adapting to the effects of climate change, and to guard against future pandemics while providing economic opportunities and greater equity over the long run.}, }
@article {pmid34777950, year = {2021}, author = {Sher, F and Raore, D and Klemeš, JJ and Rafi-Ul-Shan, PM and Khzouz, M and Marintseva, K and Razmkhah, O}, title = {Unprecedented Impacts of Aviation Emissions on Global Environmental and Climate Change Scenario.}, journal = {Current pollution reports}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {549-564}, pmid = {34777950}, issn = {2198-6592}, abstract = {There has been a continuously growing trend in international commercial air traffic, with the exception of COVID-19 crises; however, after the recovery, the trend is expected to even sharpen. The consequences of released emissions and by-products in the environment range from human health hazards, low air quality and global warming. This study is aimed to investigate the role of aviation emissions in global warming. For this purpose, data on different variables including global air traffic and growth rate, air traffic in different continents, total global CO2 emissions of different airlines, direct and indirect emissions, air traffic in various UK airports and fuel-efficient aircraft was collected from various sources like EU member states, Statista, Eurostat, IATA, CAA and EUROCONTROL. The results indicated that in 2019, commercial airlines carried over 4.5 × 10[9] passengers on scheduled flights. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the global number of passengers was reduced to 1.8 × 10[9], representing around a 60% reduction in air traffic. Germany was the largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) from the EU, releasing 927 kt of emissions in 3 years. In the UK, Heathrow airport had the highest number of passengers in 2019 with over 80 million, and the study of monthly aircraft movement revealed that Heathrow Airport also had the highest number of EU and International flights, while Edinburgh had the domestic flights in 2018. These research findings could be beneficial for airlines, policymakers and governments targeting the reduction of aircraft emissions.}, }
@article {pmid34777581, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, M and Vecchi, G and Soden, B and Yang, W and Zhang, B}, title = {Enhanced hydrological cycle increases ocean heat uptake and moderates transient climate change.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {848-853}, pmid = {34777581}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {80NSSC18K1435/ImNASA/Intramural NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {The large-scale moistening of the atmosphere in response to increasing greenhouse gases amplifies the existing patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) which, in turn, amplifies the spatial contrast in sea surface salinity (SSS). Through a series of transient CO2 doubling experiments, we demonstrate that surface salinification driven by the amplified dry conditions (P-E < 0), primarily in the subtropical ocean, accelerates ocean heat uptake. The salinification also drives the sequestration of upper-level heat into the deeper ocean, reducing the thermal stratification and increasing the heat uptake through a positive feedback. The change in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation due to salinification plays a secondary role in heat uptake. Consistent with the heat uptake changes, the transient climate response would increase by approximately 0.4 K without this process. Observed multi-decadal changes in subsurface temperature and salinity resembles those simulated, indicating that anthropogenically-forced changes in salinity are likely enhancing the ocean heat uptake.}, }
@article {pmid34776785, year = {2021}, author = {Salim, E and Ravanel, L and Bourdeau, P and Deline, P}, title = {Glacier tourism and climate change: effects, adaptations, and perspectives in the Alps.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {120}, pmid = {34776785}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change strongly affects mountain tourism activities. Glacier tourism is highly affected by the retreat of glaciers. However, research on the effects and adaptations of glacier tourism to climate change is scarce in Europe. By analysing the glacio-geomorphological literature, semi-structured interviews, and observations at six major Alpine glacier tourism sites, we aim to identify the physical processes that affect glacier tourism in the Alps and how stakeholders perceive and adapt to them. The results reveal that glacier retreat and the associated paraglacial dynamics and permafrost warming strongly affect glacier tourism. Stakeholders perceive six main issues: management, itinerary, infrastructure, attractiveness, safety, and activity. In response, they have been adapting with eight strategies: management change, technical means implementation, mitigation, diversification, access and itinerary maintenance, heritage development, planning, and implementation of transformation projects. These strategies are discussed regarding their relevance to tourism model transition to guarantee future sustainability.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-021-01849-0.}, }
@article {pmid34776634, year = {2022}, author = {Ismail-Zadeh, A}, title = {Natural hazards and climate change are not drivers of disasters.}, journal = {Natural hazards (Dordrecht, Netherlands)}, volume = {111}, number = {2}, pages = {2147-2154}, pmid = {34776634}, issn = {0921-030X}, abstract = {Many nations face challenges in assessing, understanding, and responding to the time-dependent nature of disaster risk. Changes in the intensity of occurrences of extreme events coupled with changes in vulnerability and exposure alter the impacts of natural hazards on society in mostly negative ways. Here an interrelationship between natural hazard (NH), climate change (CC), vulnerability (V), exposure (E), and decisionmaking (DM) is considered. While NHs trigger disasters and CC is likely to intensify occurrences of disasters, V and E present major drivers of disasters. Informed DM on disaster risk reduction should be based on scientific evidence from NH and CC, knowledge of V and E, and relevant options for actions on preventive disaster measures as a part of preparedness and public awareness.}, }
@article {pmid34774222, year = {2021}, author = {Wolff, NH and Zeppetello, LRV and Parsons, LA and Aggraeni, I and Battisti, DS and Ebi, KL and Game, ET and Kroeger, T and Masuda, YJ and Spector, JT}, title = {The effect of deforestation and climate change on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions due to heat exposure in Berau, Indonesia: a modelling study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {12}, pages = {e882-e892}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00279-5}, pmid = {34774222}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {T42 OH008433/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forests ; Hot Temperature ; Indonesia ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Previous studies focusing on urban, industrialised regions have found that excess heat exposure can increase all-cause mortality, heat-related illnesses, and occupational injuries. However, little research has examined how deforestation and climate change can adversely affect work conditions and population health in low latitude, industrialising countries.<br><br>METHODS: For this modelling study we used data at 1 km[2] resolution to compare forest cover and temperature conditions in the Berau regency, Indonesia, between 2002 and 2018. We used spatially explicit satellite, climate model, and population data to estimate the effects of global warming, between 2002 and 2018 and after applying 1&#xb7;0&#xb0;C, 1&#xb7;5&#xb0;C, and 2&#xb7;0&#xb0;C of global warming to 2018 temperatures, on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions in the Berau regency, Indonesia.<br><br>FINDINGS: Between 2002 and 2018, 4375 km[2] of forested land in Berau was cleared, corresponding to approximately 17% of the entire regency. Deforestation increased mean daily maximum temperatures by 0&#xb7;95&#xb0;C (95% CI 0&#xb7;97-0&#xb7;92; p<0&#xb7;0001). Mean daily temperatures increased by a population-weighted 0&#xb7;86&#xb0;C, accounting for an estimated 7&#xb7;3-8&#xb7;5% of all-cause mortality (or 101-118 additional deaths per year) in 2018. Unsafe work time increased by 0&#xb7;31 h per day (95% CI 0&#xb7;30-0&#xb7;32; p<0&#xb7;0001) in deforested areas compared to 0&#xb7;03 h per day (0&#xb7;03-0&#xb7;04; p<0&#xb7;0001) in areas that maintained forest cover. With 2&#xb7;0&#xb0;C of additional future global warming, relative to 2018, deforested areas could experience an estimated 17-20% increase in all-cause mortality (corresponding to an additional 236-282 deaths per year) and up to 5 h of unsafe work per day.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Heat exposure from deforestation and climate change has already started affecting populations in low latitude, industrialising countries, and future global warming indicates substantial health impacts in these regions. Further research should examine how deforestation is currently affecting the health and wellbeing of local communities.<br><br>FUNDING: University of Washington Population Health Initiative.<br><br>TRANSLATION: For the Bahasa translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.}, }
@article {pmid34774114, year = {2021}, author = {Guinto, RR and Alejandre, JCP and Bongcac, MK and Guilaran, J and Salcedo, SS and Sunglao, JA}, title = {An agenda for climate change and mental health in the Philippines.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {e755-e757}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00284-9}, pmid = {34774114}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Mental Health ; Philippines ; }, }
@article {pmid34773358, year = {2022}, author = {Chaiard, J and Turale, S}, title = {Nursing: The critical need to address climate change and to protect health.}, journal = {Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing}, volume = {54}, number = {1}, pages = {5-6}, doi = {10.1111/jnu.12739}, pmid = {34773358}, issn = {1547-5069}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34773318, year = {2022}, author = {Vicca, S and Goll, DS and Hagens, M and Hartmann, J and Janssens, IA and Neubeck, A and Peñuelas, J and Poblador, S and Rijnders, J and Sardans, J and Struyf, E and Swoboda, P and van Groenigen, JW and Vienne, A and Verbruggen, E}, title = {Is the climate change mitigation effect of enhanced silicate weathering governed by biological processes?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {711-726}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15993}, pmid = {34773318}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; Silicates ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {A number of negative emission technologies (NETs) have been proposed to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere, with enhanced silicate weathering (ESW) as a relatively new NET with considerable climate change mitigation potential. Models calibrated to ESW rates in lab experiments estimate the global potential for inorganic carbon sequestration by ESW at about 0.5-5 Gt CO2 year[-1] , suggesting ESW could be an important component of the future NETs mix. In real soils, however, weathering rates may differ strongly from lab conditions. Research on natural weathering has shown that biota such as plants, microbes, and macro-invertebrates can strongly affect weathering rates, but biotic effects were excluded from most ESW lab assessments. Moreover, ESW may alter soil organic carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions by influencing physicochemical and biological processes, which holds the potential to perpetuate even larger negative emissions. Here, we argue that it is likely that the climate change mitigation effect of ESW will be governed by biological processes, emphasizing the need to put these processes on the agenda of this emerging research field.}, }
@article {pmid34773237, year = {2022}, author = {Li, Y and Shao, W and Jiang, J}, title = {Predicting the potential global distribution of Sapindus mukorossi under climate change based on MaxEnt modelling.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {15}, pages = {21751-21768}, pmid = {34773237}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Sapindus ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Sapindus mukorossi (S. mukorossi) is an important biological washing material and biomass energy tree species whose peel is rich in saponins, and its kernels have a high oil content. We used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict the suitable habitats of S. mukorossi globally, screen the dominant environmental factors affecting its distribution and analyse the changes in its suitable habitats under climate change from prehistory to the future, and the results will provide a scientific basis for germplasm resource collection, protection, introduction and cultivation. Twenty-two environmental variables and global distribution data for S. mukorossi were used to construct the species distribution model, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to verify the accuracy of the model. The dominant environmental factors were screened through the jackknife method, and then, the geographical information system (ArcGIS) was used to complete the grade of suitable habitat division and area calculation. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent predictive effect, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value was as high as 0.969. The precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), temperature seasonality (Bio4) and isothermality (Bio3) were the dominant environmental factors that affected the distribution of S. mukorossi. The largest area of the world's suitable habitats occurred during the last interglacial (LIG) (772.69 × 10[4] km[2]), and the area decreased sharply (614.46 × 10[4] km[2]) during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The area of suitable habitat showed an increasing trend during the Mid-Holocene (MH) and currently, with areas of 631.06 × 10[4] km[2] and 706.82 × 10[4] km[2], respectively. The area of suitable habitats for S. mukorossi globally was 718.35 × 10[4] km[2] (SSP1-2.6), 636.85 × 10[4] km[2] (SSP2-4.5), 657.64 × 10[4] km[2] (SSP3-7.0) and 675.89 × 10[4] km[2] (SSP5-8.5) under the four scenarios of the future climate. The area increased only in the SSP1 scenario. In summary, globally, the suitable area of S. mukorossi tended to migrate to higher latitudes and decrease in area with future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34770154, year = {2021}, author = {Peng, W and Wang, D and Cai, Y}, title = {Assessing Ecological Vulnerability under Climate Change and Anthropogenic Influence in the Yangtze River Estuarine Island-Chongming Island, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {34770154}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Estuaries ; *Rivers ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Understanding and assessing ecological vulnerability for estuarine islands are important for maintaining estuarine island ecosystem services and its sustainable development. However, due to its complex fresh water-sea-land interaction mechanism and multiple stressors from both climate change and anthropogenic influence, a comprehensive evaluation of ecological vulnerability for estuarine islands has been limited. Therefore, taking the typical estuary island of Chongming Island as an example, we developed a comprehensive evaluation system of ecological vulnerability for an estuarine island ecosystem based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) conceptual model, and explored the spatial and temporal distribution of ecological vulnerability in 2005 and 2015. The results indicated that the main pressures of Chongming Island from saltwater intrusion intensity and land use intensity were mainly distributed in northern coastal areas and eastern areas of wetland; the ecological vulnerability index (EV) of Chongming Island showed a slight decrease from 2005 to 2015; and three categories of towns based on ecological vulnerability assessment for an eco-island planning and environmental management were identified. Our study provides an effective evaluation system of ecological vulnerability for estuarine islands, which could be helpful for planners and decision makers in improving eco-island planning and environmental management.}, }
@article {pmid34770130, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, C and Liang, Y and Zhao, Y and Liu, S and Huang, C}, title = {Simulation and Analysis of the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Carbon Dynamics in the Wuhan City Circle Area.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {34770130}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Carbon ; China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {In a climate and land use change context, the sequestration of atmospheric carbon in urban agglomeration is key to achieving carbon emission and neutrality targets. It is thus critical to understand how various climate and land use changes impact overall carbon sequestration in large-scale city circle areas. As the largest urban agglomeration in central China, carbon dynamics in the Wuhan City Circle area have been deeply affected by rapid urbanization and climate change in the past two decades. Here, we applied monthly climate data, spatially explicit land use maps, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) images and the CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model to estimate the spatial and temporal changes of carbon dynamics in the Wuhan City Circle area from 2000 to 2015. We designed six different scenarios to analyze the effects of climate change and land use change on carbon dynamics. Our simulation of NPP (Net Primary Productivity) increased from 522.63 gC × m[-2] to 615.82 gC × m[-2] in the Wuhan City Circle area during 2000-2015. Climate change and land use change contributed to total carbon sequestration by -73.3 × 10[10] gC and 480 × 10[10] gC, respectively. Both precipitation and temperature had a negative effect on carbon sequestration, while radiation had a positive effect. In addition, the positive effect on carbon sequestration from afforestation was almost equal to the negative effect from urbanization between 2000 and 2015. Importantly, these findings highlight the possibility of carrying out both rapid urbanization and ecological restoration simultaneously.}, }
@article {pmid34769553, year = {2021}, author = {Máté, D and Novotny, A and Meyer, DF}, title = {The Impact of Sustainability Goals on Productivity Growth: The Moderating Role of Global Warming.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {34769553}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; *Goals ; Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {The objective of this paper was to gain novel insights into the complex relationships among Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in shaping productivity (GDP/capita) growth. Using dynamic panel regressions on data collected in 138 countries between 2000 and 2017, we found that rising temperatures negatively affect growth and mitigate the impact of other SDGs on growth. We also found that CO2 emissions have a U-shaped relationship with growth; life expectancy negatively influences growth (positively moderated by rising temperatures), and food security positively impacts growth (negatively moderated by rising temperatures). This study highlights the difficulty of simultaneously implementing SDGs and elucidates novel research perspectives and policies to decrease the negative impacts of climate change on socio-economic and environmental well-being.}, }
@article {pmid34768191, year = {2021}, author = {Cole, VJ and Parker, LM and Scanes, E and Wright, J and Barnett, L and Ross, PM}, title = {Climate change alters shellfish reef communities: A temperate mesocosm experiment.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {173}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {113113}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.113113}, pmid = {34768191}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Mytilus ; Seawater ; Shellfish ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to cause significant changes to rocky shore diversity. This study used outdoor mesocosms to test the predictions that warming and ocean acidification will alter the responses of native Trichomya hirsuta and introduced Mytilus galloprovincialis mussels, and their associated communities of infauna. Experiments consisted of orthogonal combinations of temperature (ambient 22 °C or elevated 25 °C), pCO2 (ambient 400 μatm or elevated 1000 μatm), mussel species (T. hirsuta or M. galloprovincialis), and mussel configuration (native, introduced, or both), with n = 3 replicates. Elevated pCO2 reduced the growth of T. hirsuta but not that of M. galloprovincialis, and warming and pCO2 influenced the infauna that colonised both species of mussels. There was a reduction in infaunal molluscs and an increase in polychaetes; there was, however, no effect on crustaceans. Results from this study suggest that climate-driven changes from one mussel species to another can significantly influence infaunal communities.}, }
@article {pmid34767440, year = {2021}, author = {Jirinec, V and Burner, RC and Amaral, BR and Bierregaard, RO and Fernández-Arellano, G and Hernández-Palma, A and Johnson, EI and Lovejoy, TE and Powell, LL and Rutt, CL and Wolfe, JD and Stouffer, PC}, title = {Morphological consequences of climate change for resident birds in intact Amazonian rainforest.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {7}, number = {46}, pages = {eabk1743}, pmid = {34767440}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Warming from climate change is expected to reduce body size of endotherms, but studies from temperate systems have produced equivocal results. Over four decades, we collected morphometric data on a nonmigratory understory bird community within Amazonian primary rainforest that is experiencing increasingly extreme climate. All 77 species showed lower mean mass since the early 1980s—nearly half with 95% confidence. A third of species concomitantly increased wing length, driving a decrease in mass:wing ratio for 69% of species. Seasonal precipitation patterns were generally better than temperature at explaining morphological variation. Short-term climatic conditions affected all metrics, but time trends in wing and mass:wing remained robust even after controlling for annual seasonal conditions. We attribute these results to pressures to increase resource economy under warming. Both seasonal and long-term morphological shifts suggest response to climate change and highlight its pervasive consequences, even in the heart of the world’s largest rainforest.}, }
@article {pmid34766705, year = {2022}, author = {Sciberras, E and Fernando, JW}, title = {Climate change-related worry among Australian adolescents: an eight-year longitudinal study.}, journal = {Child and adolescent mental health}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {22-29}, doi = {10.1111/camh.12521}, pmid = {34766705}, issn = {1475-357X}, support = {1110688//Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Career Development Fellowship/ ; 1194297//Medical Research Future Fund Investigator/ ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Anxiety/psychology ; Australia ; Child ; *Climate Change ; *Depression ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Worry about climate change may be associated with poorer mental health but also with greater political engagement. We determined trajectories of climate change-related worry over adolescence and whether these were associated with depression symptoms and greater engagement with news and politics in late adolescence.<br><br>METHODS: At ages 10-11, 12-13, 16-17 and 18-19&#x2009;years, adolescents participating in the Kindergarten cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children rated their worry about climate change. At age 18-19&#x2009;years, participants reported on depression symptoms and engagement with news and politics. Latent profile analysis determined trajectories of climate change-related worry across all time points (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;2244). Linear regression analyses examined the association between trajectories and outcomes at 18-19&#x2009;years.<br><br>RESULTS: Thirteen per cent (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;290) of adolescents had high persistent worry. The largest proportions had moderate (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;559, 24.9%) or increasing worry (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;546, 24.3%), followed by persistent low worry (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;376, 16.8%), slightly decreasing worry (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;297, 13.2%) and steeply decreasing worry (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;176, 7.8%). Adolescents with high persistent worry had higher depression symptoms at age 18-19&#x2009;years compared to the moderate group, while those with increasing worry did not. The high persistent and increasing worry groups reported greater engagement with news and politics across several measures.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This is the first study to track climate-related worry and outcomes in young people across adolescence. A substantial number of Australian adolescents experience high or increasing worry about climate change, which is associated with greater societal engagement.}, }
@article {pmid34766098, year = {2021}, author = {Zhou, T}, title = {New physical science behind climate change: What does IPCC AR6 tell us?.}, journal = {Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {100173}, pmid = {34766098}, issn = {2666-6758}, }
@article {pmid34765769, year = {2021}, author = {Santos, RM and Bakhshoodeh, R}, title = {Climate change/global warming/climate emergency versus general climate research: comparative bibliometric trends of publications.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {e08219}, pmid = {34765769}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This article presents and discusses the scientific publication record from 1910 to 2020 on two topics: "climate" (CL) and "climate change/global warming/climate emergency" (CC/GW/CE). The goal is to comparatively visualize how these two distinct publication records have evolved over time, from different classification perspectives, using publication ratios as the key indicator. It is found that research output related to the Earth's contemporary changing climate overtook that of general climate research in 2010, and the publication ratio (CC/GW/CE)/(CL) has been expanding in the last decade. There are significant differences in the publication countries and sources between the two topics. Differentiation factors that affect the level of research output and engagement on the climate challenge include island versus landlocked nations, specialized versus general scientific journals, academic versus institutional organizations. The future of the publication records is discussed, such as the emergence of new terms to refer to the climate challenge, such as "climate emergency".}, }
@article {pmid34765187, year = {2021}, author = {Melton, AE and Beck, J and Galla, SJ and Jenkins, J and Handley, L and Kim, M and Grimwood, J and Schmutz, J and Richardson, BA and Serpe, M and Novak, S and Buerki, S}, title = {A draft genome provides hypotheses on drought tolerance in a keystone plant species in Western North America threatened by climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {21}, pages = {15417-15429}, pmid = {34765187}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change presents distinct ecological and physiological challenges to plants as extreme climate events become more common. Understanding how species have adapted to drought, especially ecologically important nonmodel organisms, will be crucial to elucidate potential biological pathways for drought adaptation and inform conservation strategies. To aid in genome-to-phenome research, a draft genome was assembled for a diploid individual of Artemisia tridentata subsp. tridentata, a threatened keystone shrub in western North America. While this taxon has few genetic resources available and genetic/genomics work has proven difficult due to genetic heterozygosity in the past, a draft genome was successfully assembled. Aquaporin (AQP) genes and their promoter sequences were mined from the draft genome to predict mechanisms regulating gene expression and generate hypotheses on key genes underpinning drought response. Fifty-one AQP genes were fully assembled within the draft genome. Promoter and phylogenetic analyses revealed putative duplicates of A. tridentata subsp. tridentata AQPs which have experienced differentiation in promoter elements, potentially supporting novel biological pathways. Comparison with nondrought-tolerant congener supports enrichments of AQP genes in this taxon during adaptation to drought stress. Differentiation of promoter elements revealed that paralogues of some genes have evolved to function in different pathways, highlighting these genes as potential candidates for future research and providing critical hypotheses for future genome-to-phenome work.}, }
@article {pmid34765133, year = {2021}, author = {Shin, Y and Min, MS and Borzée, A}, title = {Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {21}, pages = {14669-14688}, pmid = {34765133}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the major threats to global amphibian diversity, and consequently, the species distribution is expected to shift considerably in the future. Therefore, predicting such shifts is important to guide conservation and management plans. Here, we used eight independent environmental variables and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to model the current and future habitat suitability of the Korean clawed salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus) and then defined the dispersal limits of the species using cost distance analysis. The current habitat suitability model generated using the maximum entropy algorithm was highly consistent with the known distribution of the species and had good predictive performance. Projections onto years 2050 and 2070 predicted a drastic decrease of habitat suitability across all RCPs, with up to 90.1% decrease of suitable area and 98.0% decrease of optimal area predicted from binary presence grids. The models also predicted a northeastward shift of habitat suitability toward high-elevation areas and a persistence of suitability along the central ridge of the Baekdudaegan Range. This area is likely to become a climatic refugium for the species in the future, and it should be considered as an area of conservation priority. Therefore, we urge further ecological studies and population monitoring to be conducted across the range of O. koreanus. The vulnerability to rapid climate change is also shared by other congeneric species, and assessing the impacts of climate change on these other species is needed to better conserve this unique lineage of salamanders.}, }
@article {pmid34764227, year = {2021}, author = {Diffenbaugh, NS and Konings, AG and Field, CB}, title = {Atmospheric variability contributes to increasing wildfire weather but not as much as global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {46}, pages = {}, pmid = {34764227}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Fires ; Global Warming ; Weather ; *Wildfires ; }, }
@article {pmid34763537, year = {2021}, author = {Binns, C and Low, WY and Wai Hoe, VC}, title = {Red Alert: Climate Change and Public Health in the Asia Pacific Region.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {33}, number = {8}, pages = {810-811}, doi = {10.1177/10105395211051322}, pmid = {34763537}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Asia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Pacific Islands/epidemiology ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid34763317, year = {2022}, author = {Araújo-Silva, CL and Sarmento, VC and Santos, PJP}, title = {Climate change scenarios of increased CO2 and temperature affect a coral reef peracarid (Crustacea) community.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {173}, number = {}, pages = {105518}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105518}, pmid = {34763317}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Crustacea ; Humans ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The effects of applying scenarios of increasing CO2 and temperature, using a mesocosm experiment, on the structure of a macrofaunal coral reef peracarid community were investigated for the first time. Samples were taken from artificial substrate units (ASUs), colonized by macrofauna from the coral reef subtidal zone of Serrambi beach (Brazil). In the laboratory, the ASUs were exposed to a Control (Ctrl) treatment and three climate change Scenarios (Sc) (increase of T° of 0.6, 2, and 3 °C, and pH drop of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.7 units for Sc I, II and III respectively), and were collected after 15 and 29 days of exposure. Our results showed that the effect of different temperature and acidity levels under experimental climate change scenarios significantly impacted density, diversity and community structure. Major differences were observed when applying Sc II and III. Peracarida also showed a reduction in specimen number when comparing both exposure times. Overall, Amphipoda, Tanaidacea and Isopoda communities all displayed a reduction in the number of individuals for both scenarios and exposure time factors, while Cumacea responded negatively in all scenarios, suggesting that these individuals were more sensitive to the experimental conditions. Dissimilarities were greatest between the Ctrl and Sc III, particularly after 29 days. Two species, Elasmopus longipropodus (Amphipoda) and Chondrochelia dubia (Tanaidacea), greatly contributed to these dissimilarities. This study demonstrates that even an intermediate level of increasing ocean temperature and acidification will negatively impact the structure of the Peracarida macrofaunal community on coral reefs. Also demonstrates that different species of Peracarida exhibit divergent response patterns, highlighting the specific responses of these taxa to the impacts of environmental stressors. These outcomes highlight the importance of studying the effects of climate change on benthic peracarids, especially because they incubate their eggs. This characteristic can reduce migration potential and thereby reduces the individual's ability to disperse in response to a changing environment.}, }
@article {pmid34763280, year = {2021}, author = {Khalkhali, M and Dilkina, B and Mo, W}, title = {The role of climate change and decentralization in urban water services: A dynamic energy-water nexus analysis.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {207}, number = {}, pages = {117830}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2021.117830}, pmid = {34763280}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Politics ; *Water Purification ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Urban water services, including drinking water supply and wastewater treatment, are highly energy dependent, contributing to the challenges described under the water-energy nexus. Both future climate change and decentralized water system adoptions can potentially influence the energy use of the urban water services. However, the trend and the extent of such influences have not been well understood. In this study, a modeling framework was developed to quantify both the separate and the combined influences of climate change and decentralization on the life cycle energy use of the urban water cycle, using the City of Boston, MA as a testbed. Two types of household decentralized systems were considered, the greywater recycling (GWR) systems and the rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems. This modeling framework integrates empirical models based on multilinear regression analysis, hydrologic modeling, water balance models, and life cycle assessment to capture the complex interactions among centralized water services, decentralized water system adoptions, and climate parameters for cumulative energy demand (CED) assessment, considering all residential buildings in Boston. It was found that climate change alone will slightly increase the energy use of the centralized systems towards the end of the century, due to the cancelation effect amongst changes in water quality, flow rate, and space and water heating demand. When decentralization is considered alone, we found economically viable decentralized systems may not necessarily produce energy savings. In fact, RWH adoptions may increase energy use. When climate change and decentralization are combined, they will increase the water yield and cost savings of the decentralized systems, while reducing the energy use from the centralized systems. When the centralized systems are further added into the picture, the CED of the entire urban water cycle is projected to increase by 0.9% or 2.3% towards the end of the century under climate change if GWR or RWH systems are adopted by respective cost saving positive buildings.}, }
@article {pmid34762466, year = {2021}, author = {O'Grady, C}, title = {New pledges could keep global warming below 2°C target.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {374}, number = {6569}, pages = {801-802}, doi = {10.1126/science.acx9607}, pmid = {34762466}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid34761516, year = {2022}, author = {Orgeret, F and Thiebault, A and Kovacs, KM and Lydersen, C and Hindell, MA and Thompson, SA and Sydeman, WJ and Pistorius, PA}, title = {Climate change impacts on seabirds and marine mammals: The importance of study duration, thermal tolerance and generation time.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {218-239}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13920}, pmid = {34761516}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Mammals ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Understanding climate change impacts on top predators is fundamental to marine biodiversity conservation, due to their increasingly threatened populations and their importance in marine ecosystems. We conducted a systematic review of the effects of climate change (prolonged, directional change) and climate variability on seabirds and marine mammals. We extracted data from 484 studies (4808 published studies were reviewed), comprising 2215 observations on demography, phenology, distribution, diet, behaviour, body condition and physiology. The likelihood of concluding that climate change had an impact increased with study duration. However, the temporal thresholds for the effects of climate change to be discernibly varied from 10 to 29 years depending on the species, the biological response and the oceanic study region. Species with narrow thermal ranges and relatively long generation times were more often reported to be affected by climate change. This provides an important framework for future assessments, with guidance on response- and region-specific temporal dimensions that need to be considered when reporting effects of climate change. Finally, we found that tropical regions and non-breeding life stages were poorly covered in the literature, a concern that should be addressed to enable a better understanding of the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34760380, year = {2021}, author = {Li, X and Lu, H and Zhang, Z and Xing, W}, title = {Spatio-temporal variations of the major meteorological disasters and its response to climate change in Henan Province during the past two millennia.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e12365}, pmid = {34760380}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {In China, historical documents have recorded large quantities of information related to natural disasters, and these disasters have had long-lasting effects on economic and social activities. Understanding the occurrence of the natural disasters and their spatio-temporal variation characters is crucial for sustainable of our society. Therefore, based on the collection and collation of historical documents, and adopting mathematical statistics, Kriging interpolation, correlation analysis and other methods, we systematically explored the meteorological disasters in Henan Province during the past two millennia in analyzing their spatio-temporal distribution characters and driving forces. The results demonstrate that there were five major types of meteorological disasters in Henan Province, including drought, flood, hails, low temperature and frost and insect pests, which presented obvious spatio-temporal variations and have occurred frequently during the past two millennia. According to the historical documents, the major meteorological disasters occurred 1,929 times in Henan from 221 BCE to 2000 CE. On the whole, the disaster frequency show that the occurrence cycle of the meteorological disasters has obvious changes, which mainly occurred in the middle and late stages during the past two millennia, especially after 1300 CE. Furthermore, we also find that the variation of meteorological disaster events is consistent with the variation of temperature in eastern China and the frequency of meteorological disaster increases in the cold period, but decreases in the warm period. In addition, there are obvious differences in the spatial distribution of the major meteorological disaster, which were mainly distributed in the northwest and southern part region of the Henan Province before 1911 CE. While after 1911 CE, the northern and southeastern parts were the meteorological disaster-prone areas in this region during this period. Spatial correlation analysis of each meteorological disaster before and after 1911 CE points out the droughts disaster frequency-occurring district has transferred in different periods, while the hail and low temperature and frost disasters just have a smaller transferred during these two periods. Conversely, the frequency-occurring districts of floods and insect pest disasters have no obviously transferred in different periods. These results can provide an important scientific basis for governmental decision makers and local people to prevent and mitigate meteorological disaster in the future.}, }
@article {pmid34760364, year = {2021}, author = {Gao, H and Wang, L and Ma, J and Gao, X and Xiao, J and Wang, H}, title = {Modeling the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of Culicoides imicola under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e12308}, pmid = {34760364}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: African horse sickness, a transboundary and non-contagious arboviral infectious disease of equids, has spread without any warning from sub-Saharan Africa towards the Southeast Asian countries in 2020. It is imperative to predict the global distribution of Culicoides imicola (C. imicola), which was the main vector of African horse sickness virus.<br><br>METHODS: The occurrence records of C. imicola were mainly obtained from the published literature and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of C. imicola under climate change scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: The modeling results showed that the currently suitable habitats for C. imicola were distributed in most of the southern part areas of America, southwestern Europe, most of Africa, the coastal areas of the Middle East, almost all regions of South Asia, southern China, a few countries in Southeast Asia, and the whole Australia. Our model also revealed the important environmental variables on the distribution of C. imicola were temperature seasonality, precipitation of coldest quarter, and mean temperature of wettest quarter. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is an assumption of possible greenhouse gases emissions in the future. Under future climate change scenarios, the area of habitat suitability increased and decreased with time, and RCP 8.5 in the 2070s gave the worst prediction. Moreover, the habitat suitability of C. imicola will likely expand to higher latitudes. The prediction of this study is of strategic significance for vector surveillance and the prevention of vector-borne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid34758355, year = {2022}, author = {Rupasinghe, R and Chomel, BB and Martínez-López, B}, title = {Climate change and zoonoses: A review of the current status, knowledge gaps, and future trends.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {106225}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2021.106225}, pmid = {34758355}, issn = {1873-6254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology ; Disease Vectors ; Forecasting ; Zoonoses/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), especially those with zoonotic potential, are a growing threat to global health, economy, and safety. The influence of global warming and geoclimatic variations on zoonotic disease epidemiology is evident by alterations in the host, vector, and pathogen dynamics and their interactions. The objective of this article is to review the current literature on the observed impacts of climate change on zoonoses and discuss future trends. We evaluated several climate models to assess the projections of various zoonoses driven by the predicted climate variations. Many climate projections revealed potential geographical expansion and the severity of vector-borne, waterborne, foodborne, rodent-borne, and airborne zoonoses. However, there are still some knowledge gaps, and further research needs to be conducted to fully understand the magnitude and consequences of some of these changes. Certainly, by understanding the impact of climate change on zoonosis emergence and distribution, we could better plan for climate mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid34758286, year = {2021}, author = {Cai, W and Zhang, C and Zhang, S and Ai, S and Bai, Y and Bao, J and Chen, B and Chang, N and Chen, H and Cheng, L and Cui, X and Dai, H and Danna, B and Di, Q and Dong, W and Dong, W and Dou, D and Fan, W and Fan, X and Fang, X and Gao, Y and Gao, T and Geng, Y and Guan, D and Guo, Y and Hu, Y and Hua, J and Huang, C and Huang, H and Huang, J and Hamilton, I and Jiang, Q and Jiang, X and Ke, P and Kiesewetter, G and Lampard, P and Li, C and Li, R and Li, S and Liang, L and Lin, B and Lin, H and Liu, H and Liu, Q and Liu, X and Liu, Y and Liu, Z and Liu, Z and Liu, X and Lou, S and Lu, C and Luo, Y and Luo, Z and Ma, W and McGushin, A and Niu, Y and Ren, C and Ruan, Z and Schöpp, W and Shan, Y and Su, J and Sun, T and Wang, Q and Wang, C and Wen, S and Xie, Y and Xiong, H and Xu, B and Xu, M and Yan, Y and Yang, J and Yang, L and Yang, X and Yu, L and Yue, Y and Zeng, Y and Zhang, Y and Zhang, S and Zhang, Z and Zhang, J and Zhao, L and Zhao, Q and Zhao, Z and Zhao, J and Zhao, M and Zhou, J and Zhu, Z and Fu-Chun, MCF and Gong, P}, title = {The 2021 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: seizing the window of opportunity.}, journal = {The Lancet. Public health}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {e932-e947}, doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00209-7}, pmid = {34758286}, issn = {2468-2667}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; /WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; Research Report ; }, }
@article {pmid34755254, year = {2021}, author = {Bulti, DT and Abebe, BG and Biru, Z}, title = {Climate change-induced variations in future extreme precipitation intensity-duration-frequency in flood-prone city of Adama, central Ethiopia.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {12}, pages = {784}, pmid = {34755254}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Ethiopia ; *Floods ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The influences of climate change on the features of extreme rainfall events have become unprecedented that needs improved understanding at all levels for planning effective management strategies of the potential risks. This study aims to assess the potential influences of climate change on extreme rainfall characteristics in flood-vulnerable city of Adama. Daily precipitation records of 1967-2016 and projection of global circulation models (GCMs): CanESM2 and HadCM3 for 2021-2070 were disaggregated into shorter time resolutions using the Hyetos model. Gumbel type I probability distribution and power-regression model ([Formula: see text] were used for deducing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and for describing their functions, respectively. The extreme rainfall intensity of the historical and future periods for a range of storm durations and return periods were compared and contrasted. A close agreement is obtained between the observed and the modeled rainfall intensity with high values of coefficient of determination (> 0.996) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (> 0.850). Besides, statistically significant (p < 0.05) direct linear relationship is found between the return periods and the coefficient parameter of the IDF models. Moreover, the intensity of extreme precipitation over 2021-2070 in Adama city would increase up to 49.5%, depending on storm duration and return period considered. This could have consequences of the way the city's drainage infrastructures are designed, operated, and sustained. Hence, flood-prone areas should be recognized in order to formulate effective strategies for mitigation and adaption of potential impacts. The standards for designing future drainage infrastructures should also be updated aiming to reflect the effects of climatic change.}, }
@article {pmid34754618, year = {2021}, author = {Guan, J and Li, M and Ju, X and Lin, J and Wu, J and Zheng, J}, title = {The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e12311}, pmid = {34754618}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Desert locusts are notorious for their widespread distribution and strong destructive power. Their influence extends from the vast arid and semiarid regions of western Africa to northwestern India. Large-scale locust outbreaks can have devastating consequences for food security, and their social impact may be long-lasting. Climate change has increased the uncertainty of desert locust outbreaks, and predicting suitable habitats for this species under climate change scenarios will help humans deal with the potential threat of locust outbreaks. By comprehensively considering climate, soil, and terrain variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential habitats of solitary desert locusts in the 2050s and 2070s under the four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. The modeling results show that the average area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) reached 0.908 ± 0.002 and 0.701, respectively, indicating that the MaxEnt model performed extremely well and provided outstanding prediction results. The prediction results indicate that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of the potential habitat of solitary desert locusts. With the increase in radiative forcing overtime, the suitable areas for desert locusts will continue to contract, especially in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario, and the moderately and highly suitable areas will decrease by 0.88 × 10[6] km[2] and 1.55 × 10[6] km[2], respectively. Although the potentially suitable area for desert locusts is contracting, the future threat posed by the desert locust to agricultural production and food security cannot be underestimated, given the combination of maintained breeding areas, frequent extreme weather events, pressure from population growth, and volatile sociopolitical environments. In conclusion, methods such as monitoring and early warning, financial support, regional cooperation, and scientific prevention and control of desert locust plagues should be further implemented.}, }
@article {pmid34754616, year = {2021}, author = {Bartczak, A and Kaczmarek, H and Badocha, M and Krzemiński, M and Tyszkowski, S}, title = {Measured and predicted freeze-thaw days frequencies in climate change conditions in central Poland.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e12153}, pmid = {34754616}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The rate of progression of geomorphological phenomena is greatly influenced by freeze-thaw processes. In the face of air temperature increasing over the past few decades, a question of the future impact of these processes arises, notably in the temperate and cold climate zones. Using the mean, maximum and minimum daily air temperature data in the period 1951-2018 obtained from three weather stations located in the vicinity of Jeziorsko reservoir (central Poland), we have determined the mathematical correlation, described with a polynomial function, between the mean monthly air temperature and the monthly number of freeze-thaw days (FTD). A freeze-thaw day is a day when the maximum air temperature is above 0 °C while the minimum air temperature equals or is below this threshold. The number of FTDs within the study area averaged 64-71 and demonstrated a downward trend of 2-4 FTDs/10 years. The study period (1951-2018), includes a clearly marked distinct sub-period (1991-2018), when the reservoir was in operation, which experienced 58-68 FTDs. Considering the assumed rise in temperature, one should expect a further, though slightly slower, decline in the future number of FTDs. Depending on the accepted model of the temperature increase, which for the area of Poland (Central Europe) in the perspective of 30 years oscillates between +1.1 to +1.3 °C, the number of FTDs within the study area is expected to decline by -4.5 to -5.3 FTD, i.e. 6-7% and 5.4-5.5 FTD i.e. 8-9% respectively.}, }
@article {pmid34753820, year = {2021}, author = {Laughner, JL and Neu, JL and Schimel, D and Wennberg, PO and Barsanti, K and Bowman, KW and Chatterjee, A and Croes, BE and Fitzmaurice, HL and Henze, DK and Kim, J and Kort, EA and Liu, Z and Miyazaki, K and Turner, AJ and Anenberg, S and Avise, J and Cao, H and Crisp, D and de Gouw, J and Eldering, A and Fyfe, JC and Goldberg, DL and Gurney, KR and Hasheminassab, S and Hopkins, F and Ivey, CE and Jones, DBA and Liu, J and Lovenduski, NS and Martin, RV and McKinley, GA and Ott, L and Poulter, B and Ru, M and Sander, SP and Swart, N and Yung, YL and Zeng, ZC}, title = {Societal shifts due to COVID-19 reveal large-scale complexities and feedbacks between atmospheric chemistry and climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {46}, pages = {}, pmid = {34753820}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {80NSSC17K0508/ImNASA/Intramural NASA/United States ; 80NSSC19K0508/ImNASA/Intramural NASA/United States ; 80NSSC18K0508/ImNASA/Intramural NASA/United States ; 80NSSC20K0006/ImNASA/Intramural NASA/United States ; 80NSSC18K0689/ImNASA/Intramural NASA/United States ; }, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; COVID-19/epidemiology/*psychology ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Methane ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen Oxides ; Ozone ; }, abstract = {The COVID-19 global pandemic and associated government lockdowns dramatically altered human activity, providing a window into how changes in individual behavior, enacted en masse, impact atmospheric composition. The resulting reductions in anthropogenic activity represent an unprecedented event that yields a glimpse into a future where emissions to the atmosphere are reduced. Furthermore, the abrupt reduction in emissions during the lockdown periods led to clearly observable changes in atmospheric composition, which provide direct insight into feedbacks between the Earth system and human activity. While air pollutants and greenhouse gases share many common anthropogenic sources, there is a sharp difference in the response of their atmospheric concentrations to COVID-19 emissions changes, due in large part to their different lifetimes. Here, we discuss several key takeaways from modeling and observational studies. First, despite dramatic declines in mobility and associated vehicular emissions, the atmospheric growth rates of greenhouse gases were not slowed, in part due to decreased ocean uptake of CO2 and a likely increase in CH4 lifetime from reduced NO x emissions. Second, the response of O3 to decreased NO x emissions showed significant spatial and temporal variability, due to differing chemical regimes around the world. Finally, the overall response of atmospheric composition to emissions changes is heavily modulated by factors including carbon-cycle feedbacks to CH4 and CO2, background pollutant levels, the timing and location of emissions changes, and climate feedbacks on air quality, such as wildfires and the ozone climate penalty.}, }
@article {pmid34753741, year = {2021}, author = {Marder, E and Rue, MCP}, title = {From the Neuroscience of Individual Variability to Climate Change.}, journal = {The Journal of neuroscience : the official journal of the Society for Neuroscience}, volume = {41}, number = {50}, pages = {10213-10221}, pmid = {34753741}, issn = {1529-2401}, support = {F31 NS113383/NS/NINDS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 MH046742/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; R35 NS097343/NS/NINDS NIH HHS/United States ; R37 MH046742/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Brachyura ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Neurological ; Nephropidae ; *Neurosciences ; }, abstract = {Years of basic neuroscience on the modulation of the small circuits found in the crustacean stomatogastric ganglion have led us to study the effects of temperature on the motor patterns produced by the stomatogastric ganglion. While the impetus for this work was the study of individual variability in the parameters determining intrinsic and synaptic conductances, we are confronting substantial fluctuations in the stability of the networks to extreme temperature; these may correlate with changes in ocean temperature. Interestingly, when studied under control conditions, these wild-caught animals appear to be unchanged, but it is only when challenged by extreme temperatures that we reveal the consequences of warming oceans.}, }
@article {pmid34752774, year = {2021}, author = {Stuart-Smith, RD}, title = {Climate change: Large-scale abundance shifts in fishes.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {31}, number = {21}, pages = {R1445-R1447}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2021.09.063}, pmid = {34752774}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Fishes/physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Warming seas are driving a mass-scale restructuring of marine life, with observed responses expanding beyond species' range shifts. New evidence highlights large regions where ecological change has been dominated by the declining abundance of species that prefer cooler waters.}, }
@article {pmid34751933, year = {2022}, author = {Bonnet-Lebrun, AS and Larsen, T and Thórarinsson, TL and Kolbeinsson, Y and Frederiksen, M and Morley, TI and Fox, D and Boutet, A and le Bouard, F and Deville, T and Hansen, ES and Hansen, T and Roberts, P and Ratcliffe, N}, title = {Cold comfort: Arctic seabirds find refugia from climate change and potential competition in marginal ice zones and fjords.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {51}, number = {2}, pages = {345-354}, pmid = {34751933}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {NE/R012660/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft 03V01459//BMBF/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Charadriiformes ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Estuaries ; Ice ; Ice Cover ; Refugium ; }, abstract = {Climate change alters species distributions by shifting their fundamental niche in space through time. Such effects may be exacerbated by increased inter-specific competition if climate alters species dominance where competitor ranges overlap. This study used census data, telemetry and stable isotopes to examine the population and foraging ecology of a pair of Arctic and temperate congeners across an extensive zone of sympatry in Iceland, where sea temperatures varied substantially. The abundance of Arctic Brünnich's guillemot Uria lomvia declined with sea temperature. Accessibility of refugia in cold water currents or fjords helped support higher numbers and reduce rates of population decline. Competition with temperate Common guillemots Uria aalge did not affect abundance, but similarities in foraging ecology were sufficient to cause competition when resources are limiting. Continued warming is likely to lead to further declines of Brünnich's guillemot, with implications for conservation status and ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid34751448, year = {2022}, author = {Bluemel, JK and Fischer, SH and Kulka, DW and Lynam, CP and Ellis, JR}, title = {Decline in Atlantic wolffish Anarhichas lupus in the North Sea: Impacts of fishing pressure and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {100}, number = {1}, pages = {253-267}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.14942}, pmid = {34751448}, issn = {1095-8649}, support = {ME6016//UK Department for Environment Food &amp; Rural Affairs (Defra)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; *Hunting ; North Sea ; }, abstract = {Anarhichas lupus is a boreo-Arctic species with biological characteristics often associated with vulnerability to overexploitation. Although not commercially targeted in the North Sea, A. lupus is a bycatch species in mixed demersal fisheries. Here we provide an overview of the status of A. lupus in the North Sea, as observed from commercial landings and fishery-independent trawl survey data. A. lupus was once common across much of the central and northern North Sea but, since the 1980s, have declined in abundance, demographic characteristics (reduced size) and geographical range, with the shallower and more southerly parts of its range most impacted. A. lupus is still relatively frequent in the northern North Sea, where fishing intensity, though decreasing, is high. Bycatch through fishing remains a potential threat and, considering the likely impacts of predicted climate change on cold-water species, risks of further regional depletion and/or range contraction remain. Whether or not A. lupus is able to re-establish viable populations in former habitat in UK coastal waters is unknown. Given the lack of data, the precautionary principle would suggest that manageable pressures be minimized where the species and its habitat are at risk of further impacts, and more regular assessments of population status be undertaken.}, }
@article {pmid34751327, year = {2021}, author = {Oyarzún G, M and Lanas Z, F and Wolff R, M and Quezada L, A}, title = {[The impact of climate change on health].}, journal = {Revista medica de Chile}, volume = {149}, number = {5}, pages = {738-746}, doi = {10.4067/s0034-98872021000500738}, pmid = {34751327}, issn = {0717-6163}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases ; Disease Vectors ; Humans ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Climate changes evidenced by an increase in our planet's mean temperature, changes in rainfall, increased sea level and extreme weather conditions, favor air and soil contamination, ocean acidification, droughts, floods, heat waves and forest fires, which affect the health and wellbeing of exposed populations. These changes will exert negative effects on respiratory and cardiovascular systems, nutritional status, burden of infectious diseases, especially vector-borne infections, and human mental health. Moreover, environmental damages, such as loss of biodiversity, ecological collapse and deterioration of socioeconomic factors such as agricultural and fishery production, and the loss of habitable land, will impulse massive migrations. This article summarizes the impact that climate change is expected to have on respiratory, cardiovascular and infectious diseases and its repercussions on people of extreme ages. It is imperative to achieve the immediate commitment of worldwide national governments to control green-house gas emissions. The appropriate technology does exist, but political will is urgently needed to accomplish this goal.}, }
@article {pmid34750118, year = {2021}, author = {Smith, R}, title = {COP26 diary: making health central to tackling climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {375}, number = {}, pages = {n2728}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.n2728}, pmid = {34750118}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34748832, year = {2022}, author = {De Lombaerde, E and Vangansbeke, P and Lenoir, J and Van Meerbeek, K and Lembrechts, J and Rodríguez-Sánchez, F and Luoto, M and Scheffers, B and Haesen, S and Aalto, J and Christiansen, DM and De Pauw, K and Depauw, L and Govaert, S and Greiser, C and Hampe, A and Hylander, K and Klinges, D and Koelemeijer, I and Meeussen, C and Ogée, J and Sanczuk, P and Vanneste, T and Zellweger, F and Baeten, L and De Frenne, P}, title = {Maintaining forest cover to enhance temperature buffering under future climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {810}, number = {}, pages = {151338}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151338}, pmid = {34748832}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Microclimate ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Forest canopies buffer macroclimatic temperature fluctuations. However, we do not know if and how the capacity of canopies to buffer understorey temperature will change with accelerating climate change. Here we map the difference (offset) between temperatures inside and outside forests in the recent past and project these into the future in boreal, temperate and tropical forests. Using linear mixed-effect models, we combined a global database of 714 paired time series of temperatures (mean, minimum and maximum) measured inside forests vs. in nearby open habitats with maps of macroclimate, topography and forest cover to hindcast past (1970-2000) and to project future (2060-2080) temperature differences between free-air temperatures and sub-canopy microclimates. For all tested future climate scenarios, we project that the difference between maximum temperatures inside and outside forests across the globe will increase (i.e. result in stronger cooling in forests), on average during 2060-2080, by 0.27 ± 0.16 °C (RCP2.6) and 0.60 ± 0.14 °C (RCP8.5) due to macroclimate changes. This suggests that extremely hot temperatures under forest canopies will, on average, warm less than outside forests as macroclimate warms. This knowledge is of utmost importance as it suggests that forest microclimates will warm at a slower rate than non-forested areas, assuming that forest cover is maintained. Species adapted to colder growing conditions may thus find shelter and survive longer than anticipated at a given forest site. This highlights the potential role of forests as a whole as microrefugia for biodiversity under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34748593, year = {2021}, author = {Bombi, P and Salvi, D and Shuuya, T and Vignoli, L and Wassenaar, T}, title = {Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {11}, pages = {e0259767}, pmid = {34748593}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Mirabilis ; }, abstract = {Deserts have been predicted to be one of the most responsive ecosystems to global climate change. In this study, we examine the spatial and demographic response of a keystone endemic plant of the Namib Desert (Welwitschia mirabilis), for which displacement and reduction of suitable climate has been foreseen under future conditions. The main aim is to assess the association between ongoing climate change and geographical patterns of welwitschia health, reproductive status, and size. We collected data on welwitschia distribution, health condition, reproductive status, and plant size in northern Namibia. We used ecological niche models to predict the expected geographic shift of suitability under climate change scenarios. For each variable, we compared our field measurements with the expected ongoing change in climate suitability. Finally, we tested the presence of simple geographical gradients in the observed patterns. The historically realized thermal niche of welwitschia will be almost completely unavailable in the next 30 years in northern Namibia. Expected reductions of climatic suitability in our study sites were strongly associated with indicators of negative population conditions, namely lower plant health, reduced recruitment and increased adult mortality. Population condition does not follow simple latitudinal or altitudinal gradients. The observed pattern of population traits is consistent with climate change trends and projections. This makes welwitschia a suitable bioindicator (i.e. a 'sentinel') for climate change effect in the Namib Desert ecosystems. Our spatially explicit approach, combining suitability modeling with geographic combinations of population conditions measured in the field, could be extensively adopted to identify sentinel species, and detect population responses to climate change in other regions and ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid34747631, year = {2021}, author = {Ebi, KL and Luchters, S}, title = {Invited Perspective: Most Affected by Climate Change; Least Studied.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {129}, number = {11}, pages = {111301}, pmid = {34747631}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Research ; }, }
@article {pmid34745847, year = {2022}, author = {Ferraz Young, A}, title = {From federal transfers and local investments to a potential convergence of COVID-19 and climate change: The case study of São Paulo city.}, journal = {Sustainable cities and society}, volume = {76}, number = {}, pages = {103450}, pmid = {34745847}, issn = {2210-6715}, abstract = {This paper is divided into two parts to explore some aspects of municipal development related to national and subnational investments in disaster risk reduction and urban sustainability related to Covid-19 and climate change response. In Part I, a survey on disasters and national transfers to 45 Brazilian municipalities is presented. In Part II, the local-scale approach enabled to compare the areas most affected by COVID-19 with those impacted by climate change. There are large uncertainties around financial support from the federal government and their impact at local scale. São Paulo city was chosen because it reveals some important aspects of spatial structure carried out through local investments. In this sense, updated information on floods and warmer surfaces were updated to provoke a discussion about a potential confluence with the effects of pandemic. The results highlighted the effects of scarce federal transfers and the maps help us to identify the spatial distribution of people at risk, which can be beneficial for municipal decisions as they highlight a significative relationship between pandemic effects and an uneven social structure. In conclusion, the trade-off between this unequal structure and a necessary and effectively sustainable change leads us to reflect on local investment trends.}, }
@article {pmid34745367, year = {2022}, author = {Falk, J and Attig-Bahar, F and Colwell, RR and Behera, SK and El-Beltagy, AS and von Braun, J and Dasgupta, P and Gleick, PH and Kaneko, R and Kennel, CF and Koundouri, P and Lee, YT and Lovejoy, TE and Luers, A and Murray, CA and Lal, R and Serageldin, I and Sokona, Y and Takeuchi, K and Taniguchi, M and Watanabe, C and Yasunari, T}, title = {Addressing our planetary crisis: Consensus statement from the presenters and International Advisory Committee of the Regional Action on Climate Change (RACC) Symposium held in conjunction with the Kyoto-based Science and Technology in Society (STS) Forum, 1 October 2021.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {5-7}, pmid = {34745367}, issn = {1862-4057}, }
@article {pmid34745331, year = {2021}, author = {Lockley, EC and Eizaguirre, C}, title = {Effects of global warming on species with temperature-dependent sex determination: Bridging the gap between empirical research and management.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {2361-2377}, pmid = {34745331}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Global warming could threaten over 400 species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) worldwide, including all species of sea turtle. During embryonic development, rising temperatures might lead to the overproduction of one sex and, in turn, could bias populations' sex ratios to an extent that threatens their persistence. If climate change predictions are correct, and biased sex ratios reduce population viability, species with TSD may go rapidly extinct unless adaptive mechanisms, whether behavioural, physiological or molecular, exist to buffer these temperature-driven effects. Here, we summarize the discovery of the TSD phenomenon and its still elusive evolutionary significance. We then review the molecular pathways underpinning TSD in model species, along with the hormonal mechanisms that interact with temperatures to determine an individual's sex. To illustrate evolutionary mechanisms that can affect sex determination, we focus on sea turtle biology, discussing both the adaptive potential of this threatened TSD taxon, and the risks associated with conservation mismanagement.}, }
@article {pmid34744013, year = {2021}, author = {Williams, R and Lacy, RC and Ashe, E and Hall, A and Plourde, S and McQuinn, IH and Lesage, V}, title = {Climate change complicates efforts to ensure survival and recovery of St. Lawrence Estuary beluga.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {173}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {113096}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.113096}, pmid = {34744013}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; *Beluga Whale ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Endangered Species ; *Estuaries ; Hunting ; }, abstract = {Decades after a ban on hunting, and despite focused management interventions, the endangered St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) population has failed to recover. We applied a population viability analysis to simulate the responses of the SLE beluga population across a wide range of variability and uncertainty under current and projected changes in environmental and climate-mediated conditions. Three proximate threats to recovery were explored: ocean noise; contaminants; and prey limitation. Even the most optimistic scenarios failed to achieve the reliable positive population growth needed to meet current recovery targets. Here we show that predicted effects of climate change may be a more significant driver of SLE beluga population dynamics than the proximate threats we considered. Aggressive mitigation of all three proximate threats will be needed to build the population's resilience and allow the population to persist long enough for global actions to mitigate climate change to take effect.}, }
@article {pmid34743321, year = {2022}, author = {Shepard, ID and Wissinger, SA and Wood, ZT and Greig, HS}, title = {Predators balance consequences of climate-change-induced habitat shifts for range-shifting and resident species.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {2}, pages = {334-344}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13631}, pmid = {34743321}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Insecta/physiology ; Larva/physiology ; Predatory Behavior/physiology ; }, abstract = {While many species distributions are shifting poleward or up in elevation in response to a changing climate, others are shifting their habitats along localized gradients in environmental conditions as abiotic conditions become more stressful. Whether species are moving across regional or local environmental gradients in response to climate change, range-shifting species become embedded in established communities of competitors and predators. The consequences of these shifts for both resident and shifting species are often unknown, as it can be difficult to isolate the effects of multiple species interactions. Using a model system of insects in high-elevation ponds in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, we sought to disentangle the effects of predation and intraguild interactions on the survival and development of a semi-permanent pond resident caddisfly Limnephilus externus and the habitat-shifting caddis Asynarchus nigriculus that is being forced into semi-permanent ponds as temporary ponds dry too quickly to complete development. We conducted a manipulative in-situ pond cage experiment in which L. externus and A. nigriculus caddisfly larvae in single-species treatments and together were exposed to the presence/absence of predatory Dytiscus diving beetle larvae. This approach allowed us to isolate the effects of intraguild interactions and predation on the survival and development of both the resident and habitat-shifting species. We found that intraguild interactions had strong negative effects on the resident and habitat-shifting species. Intraguild interactions reduced the survival of the resident L. externus and increased the variation in survival of the shifting A. nigriculus. However, Dytiscus predators reduced these negative effects, stabilizing the community by increasing L. externus survival and reducing variation in A. nigriculus survival. We also found that intraguild interactions reduced L. externus biomass but resulted in increased A. nigriculus development. A. nigriculus development was also increased by predation. Our results show that strong intraguild interactions between resident and shifting species are likely to have negative consequences for both species. However, the presence of predators reduces these negative consequences of the habitat shift on both the resident and the shifting.}, }
@article {pmid34741946, year = {2022}, author = {Ricalde, I and Vicuña, S and Melo, O and Tomlinson, JE and Harou, JJ and Characklis, G}, title = {Assessing tradeoffs in the design of climate change adaptation strategies for water utilities in Chile.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {302}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {114035}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114035}, pmid = {34741946}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Chile ; *Climate Change ; *Drinking Water ; Droughts ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a challenge to drinking water providers worldwide and to regulatory frameworks that consider long-term investment decisions. Coping with an unstable climate warrants adjustments in regulations and new investments. The investment required to maintain a selected service level needs to balance the potential for high regret stranded assets with the political and socioeconomic consequences of not meeting water demands. In recent years, the City of Santiago in Chile has seen drought events associated with climate change, which could worsen in the future. Chile's drinking water regulatory framework does not account for uncertainty in infrastructure design to cope with the potential impacts of such events. This work presents an adaptation option design process that considers multiple plausible climate change-impacted future scenarios, accommodating both structural and nonstructural measures. In our Santiago case study adaptation measures include extensions to the existing Chilean water market and traditional structural alternatives (e.g., storage infrastructure); all are represented in a simulation model of the water utility. We evaluate and optimize packages of efficient adaptation measures for various climate scenarios. This allows comparing different portfolios of combined institutional and infrastructure interventions via a range of stakeholder measures and comparing their tradeoffs under different plausible climate-impacted hydrological scenarios. Results showed that water supply performance without climate change adaptation is worse under climate scenarios with lower water availability, which are likely to be associated with higher GHG emission scenarios such as RCP 8.5. The optimized portfolios implement various combinations of adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of this poor performance. Considering the uncertainty on future climate scenarios, the use of nonstructural adaptation measures such as option contracts exhibits the advantage of providing water in critical periods while avoiding large investments such as building reservoirs or the purchase of permanent water rights, which could end up underused if favorable climate scenarios manifest.}, }
@article {pmid34741817, year = {2021}, author = {Butler, CD and Jaakkola, JJK and Boylan, S and McFarlane, RA and Potter, JD}, title = {Restoring biodiversity and slowing climate change are crucial to protect health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {398}, number = {10313}, pages = {1802}, pmid = {34741817}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34741266, year = {2022}, author = {Pan, C and Chen, S and Chen, Z and Li, Y and Liu, Y and Zhang, Z and Xu, Y and Liu, G and Yang, K and Liu, G and Du, Z and Zhang, L}, title = {Assessing the geographical distribution of 76 Dendrobium species and impacts of climate change on their potential suitable distribution area in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {14}, pages = {20571-20592}, pmid = {34741266}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2015KQNCX024//Guangdong Science and Technology Department/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Dendrobium ; Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The geographical distribution of plant resources is of great significance for studying the origin, distribution, and evolution of species. Climate and geographical factors help shape the distribution of plant species. Dendrobium is a commonly used traditional medicine and a precious economic crop in China. Owing to the over-exploitation and increasing medicinal demand of Dendrobium species plants, systematic investigation of the geographical distribution of the plants and analysis of their potential distribution under climate change are important for protecting Dendrobium plants. We adopted DIVA-GIS to analyze the georeferenced records of 76 species of the Dendrobium species collected from 2166 herbarium records. We analyzed the eco-geographical distribution and species richness of the genus Dendrobium to simulate the distribution of current and future scenarios using MaxEnt. The results revealed the distribution of Dendrobium in 30 provinces of China, with species abundance in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan. Our model identified the following bioclimatic variables: precipitation in the driest months and the warmest seasons, isothermality, and range of annual temperature. Among them, annual precipitation is the most crucial bioclimatic variable affecting the distribution of 16 selected Dendrobium species. The change of climate in the future will lead to an increase in habitat suitability for some Dendrobium species as follows: D. officinal 2.12%, D. hancockii by 6.00%, D. hercoglossum by 8.25%, D. devonianum by 7.71%, D. henryi by 9.40%, and D. hainanense by 13.70%. By contrast, habitat suitability will dramatically decrease for other Dendrobium species: D. chrysotoxum by 0.89%, D. chrysanthum by 12.68%, D. fimbriatum by 5.07%, D. aduncum by 11.44%, D. densiflorum by 18.47%, D. aphyllum by 8.05%, D. loddigesii by 16.45%, D. nobile by 5.41%, D. falconeri by 8.73%, and D. moniliforme by 10.61%. The reduction of these species will be detrimental to the medicinal and economic value of the genus Dendrobium. Therefore, targeted development and reasonable management strategies should be adopted to conserve these valuable resources.}, }
@article {pmid34740894, year = {2021}, author = {Mulcahy, E}, title = {Why tackling climate change mitigation and human health together is the best way forward.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {375}, number = {}, pages = {n2707}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.n2707}, pmid = {34740894}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid34740649, year = {2022}, author = {Xian, Y and Lu, Y and Liu, G}, title = {Is climate change threatening or beneficial to the habitat distribution of global pangolin species? Evidence from species distribution modeling.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {811}, number = {}, pages = {151385}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151385}, pmid = {34740649}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; India ; Mammals ; *Pangolins ; }, abstract = {Global climate change caused by fossil energy consumption is strongly threatening the species diversity of mammals. In particular, changes in temperature and precipitation have affected the habitat of pangolins. Thus, we employed the MaxEnt modeling approach to simulate the potential habitat distribution of pangolins under the current climate and future climate change scenarios during 2081-2100. The habitats of the two Phataginus pangolins were mainly affected by temperature and precipitation. Conversely, geomorphological factors mainly affected the habitat of pangolins in the genus Smutsia. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the habitat of Smutsia gigantea increased by 460.8 Mha, while that of Smutsia temminckii decreased by 89.4 Mha. Temperature and altitude affected the habitat of Manis crassicaudata, while vegetation coverage affected the habitat of Manis javanica. Moreover, human activities threatened the habitat of pangolins in Africa and India. However, labor transfer in southern China weakened the negative effects of human activities on the survival of pangolins in rural regions. Due to the lack of uniform intergovernmental schemes regarding global pangolin protection, the illegal pangolin trade threatens pangolin species worldwide, especially in Africa. From current to future scenarios, climate change increased the habitats of Manis crassicaudata, Manis javanica, Smutsia gigantea and Phataginus tetradactyla, while the habitats of Manis pentadactyla and Smutsia temminckii were threatened. Moreover, the total habitat area of the pantropical distribution zone in the Southern Hemisphere (26°S-33°S) decreased, mainly due to the extensive reduction in Smutsia temminckii habitat. The habitat of the pantropical zone in the Northern Hemisphere (19°N-28°N) basically remained unchanged. Increases in the habitat of the tropical distribution zone (11°S-17°N) were dominated by habitat gains for Smutsia gigantea. These findings provide scientific evidence to support global pangolin protection.}, }
@article {pmid34738846, year = {2022}, author = {Atkinson, QD and Jacquet, J}, title = {Challenging the Idea That Humans Are Not Designed to Solve Climate Change.}, journal = {Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {619-630}, doi = {10.1177/17456916211018454}, pmid = {34738846}, issn = {1745-6924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Policy ; Social Behavior ; }, abstract = {In the face of a slow and inadequate global response to anthropogenic climate change, scholars and journalists frequently claim that human psychology is not designed or evolved to solve the problem, and they highlight a range of "psychological barriers" to climate action. Here, we critically examine this claim and the evidence on which it is based. We identify four key problems with attributing climate inaction to "human nature" or evolved psychological barriers: (a) It minimizes variability within and between populations; (b) it oversimplifies psychological research and its implications for policy; (c) it frames responsibility for climate change in terms of the individual at the expense of the role of other aspects of culture, including institutional actors; and (d) it rationalizes inaction. For these reasons, the message from social scientists must be clear-humans' current collective failure to tackle climate change on the scale required cannot be explained as a product of a universal and fixed human nature because it is a fundamentally cultural phenomenon, reflecting culturally evolved values, norms, institutions, and technologies that can and must change rapidly.}, }
@article {pmid34738298, year = {2022}, author = {Ma, R and Yu, K and Xiao, S and Liu, S and Ciais, P and Zou, J}, title = {Data-driven estimates of fertilizer-induced soil NH3 , NO and N2 O emissions from croplands in China and their climate change impacts.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {1008-1022}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15975}, pmid = {34738298}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Fertilizers/analysis ; Nitric Oxide ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Gaseous reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions from agricultural soils to the atmosphere constitute an integral part of global N cycle, directly or indirectly causing climate change impacts. The extensive use of N fertilizer in crop production will compromise our efforts to reduce agricultural Nr emissions in China. A national inventory of fertilizer N-induced gaseous Nr emissions from croplands in China remains to be developed to reveal its role in shaping climate change. Here we present a data-driven estimate of fertilizer N-induced soil Nr emissions based on regional and crop-specific emission factors (EFs) compiled from 379 manipulative studies. In China, agricultural soil Nr emissions from the use of synthetic N fertilizer and manure in 2018 are estimated to be 3.81 and 0.73 Tg N yr[-1] , with a combined contribution of 23%, 20% and 15% to the global agricultural emission total of ammonia (NH3), nitrous oxide (N2 O) and nitric oxide (NO), respectively. Over the past three decades, NH3 volatilization from croplands has experienced a shift from a rapid increase to a decline trend, whereas N2 O and NO emissions always maintain a strong growth momentum due to a robust and continuous rise of EFs. Regionally, croplands in Central south (1.51 Tg N yr[-1]) and East (0.99 Tg N yr[-1]) of China exhibit as hotspots of soil Nr emissions. In terms of crop-specific emissions, rice, maize and vegetable show as three leading Nr emitters, together accounting for 61% of synthetic N fertilizer-induced Nr emissions from croplands. The global warming effect derived from cropland N2 O emissions in China was found to dominate over the local cooling effects of NH3 and NO emissions. Our established regional and crop-specific EFs for gaseous Nr forms provide a new benchmark for constraining the IPCC Tier 1 default EF values. The spatio-temporal insight into soil Nr emission data from N fertilizer application in our estimate is expected to advance our efforts towards more accurate global or regional cropland Nr emission inventories and effective mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid34738174, year = {2021}, author = {Canturk, U and Kulaç, &#x15e;}, title = {The effects of climate change scenarios on Tilia ssp. in Turkey.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {12}, pages = {771}, pmid = {34738174}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; *Tilia ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {Global climate change will cause significant changes in climate parameters, especially temperature increases and changes in precipitation regimes worldwide. Since the life of living things is directly related to climate parameters, this process will inevitably affect all living things. The plants will be the most affected living things from this process because they do not have an effective movement and migration mechanism. Therefore, global climate change will cause significant species and population losses in plants. To minimize the potential loss of species and populations, it is necessary to predetermine the potential changes in species' distribution areas and take necessary actions. Therefore, this study was aimed to determine the distribution areas of three Tilia species (Tilia tomentosa, Tilia cordata, and Tilia platyphyllos), which have economic, ecologic, and social value and show the local distribution in Turkey and to determine how they will be affected by global climate change. Within this scope, nineteen bioclimatic variables, Emberger climate classification, aspect, and topographic altitude variable were used in the modeling process. By modeling the scenarios SSP 245 and SSP 585, the projections were made for 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 regarding the areas suitable for the growth of these species and how these areas will change compared to their current situation. The results suggest that the distribution areas of all three Tilia species will change due to climate change, and the area of loss will be 43.5 km[2] (4%) for T. tomentosa, 9953.6 km[2] (15%) for T. platyphyllos, and 448.0 km[2] (19%) for T. cordata. Moreover, a more important point here is that increases and decreases will be observed in their distribution areas, and these changes will occur in a short process and at significant levels. In this case, the migration mechanism that these species will require must be provided by humans.}, }
@article {pmid34736812, year = {2022}, author = {Leffers, JM}, title = {Climate Change and Health of Children: Our Borrowed Future.}, journal = {Journal of pediatric health care : official publication of National Association of Pediatric Nurse Associates &amp; Practitioners}, volume = {36}, number = {1}, pages = {12-19}, doi = {10.1016/j.pedhc.2021.09.002}, pmid = {34736812}, issn = {1532-656X}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Children are disproportionately vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because of physiological, developmental, behavioral, and social factors. In addition, they are likely to bear the consequences of these impacts over their life course. This paper reviews the health impacts of climate change on children's health, highlights specific vulnerabilities and offers recommendations to pediatric health care professionals for mitigation, adaptation, policy, and personal interventions to address our changing climate. Health care professionals can help families in mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce their risk from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34735233, year = {2021}, author = {Dobson, A and Rowe, Z and Berger, J and Wholey, P and Caro, T}, title = {Biodiversity loss due to more than climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {374}, number = {6568}, pages = {699-700}, doi = {10.1126/science.abm6216}, pmid = {34735233}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Human Activities ; }, }
@article {pmid34730700, year = {2021}, author = {Yousafzai, A and Manzoor, W and Raza, G and Mahmood, T and Rehman, F and Hadi, R and Shah, S and Amin, M and Akhtar, A and Bashir, S and Habiba, U and Hussain, M}, title = {Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {84}, number = {}, pages = {e253106}, doi = {10.1590/1519-6984.253106}, pmid = {34730700}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe's (LM), Willmott's index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid34728801, year = {2021}, author = {Nair, C}, title = {There is no silver bullet against climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {599}, number = {7883}, pages = {32}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-02980-y}, pmid = {34728801}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis/*isolation &amp; purification ; Climate Change/*economics ; Developed Countries/economics ; Developing Countries/economics ; Leadership ; Life Style ; *Models, Economic ; Technology/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid34728406, year = {2022}, author = {Ma, G and Ma, CS}, title = {Potential distribution of invasive crop pests under climate change: incorporating mitigation responses of insects into prediction models.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {49}, number = {}, pages = {15-21}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2021.10.006}, pmid = {34728406}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Insecta ; Microclimate ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change facilitates biological invasions globally. Predicting potential distribution shifts of invasive crop pests under climate change is essential for global food security in the context of ongoing world population increase. However, existing predictions often omit the capacity of crop pests to mitigate the impacts of climate change by using microclimates, as well as through thermoregulation, life history variation and evolutionary responses. Microclimates provide refugia buffering climate extremes. Thermoregulation and life history variation can reduce the effects of diurnal and seasonal temperature variability. Evolutionary responses allow insects to adapt to long-term climate change. Neglecting these ecological processes may lead to overestimations in the negative impacts of climate change on invasive pests whereas in turn cause underestimations in their range expansions. To improve model predictions, we need to incorporate the fine-scale microclimates experienced by invasive crop pests and the mitigation responses of insects to climate change into species distribution models.}, }
@article {pmid34727712, year = {2021}, author = {Warmuth, VM and Burgess, MD and Laaksonen, T and Manica, A and Mägi, M and Nord, A and Primmer, CR and Sætre, GP and Winkel, W and Ellegren, H}, title = {Major population splits coincide with episodes of rapid climate change in a forest-dependent bird.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {288}, number = {1962}, pages = {20211066}, pmid = {34727712}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Humans ; *Songbirds/genetics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change influences population demography by altering patterns of gene flow and reproductive isolation. Direct mutation rates offer the possibility for accurate dating on the within-species level but are currently only available for a handful of vertebrate species. Here, we use the first directly estimated mutation rate in birds to study the evolutionary history of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca). Using a combination of demographic inference and species distribution modelling, we show that all major population splits in this forest-dependent system occurred during periods of increased climate instability and rapid global temperature change. We show that the divergent Spanish subspecies originated during the Eemian-Weichselian transition 115-104 thousand years ago (kya), and not during the last glacial maximum (26.5-19 kya), as previously suggested. The magnitude and rates of climate change during the glacial-interglacial transitions that preceded population splits in pied flycatchers were similar to, or exceeded, those predicted to occur in the course of the current, human-induced climate crisis. As such, our results provide a timely reminder of the strong impact that episodes of climate instability and rapid temperature changes can have on species' evolutionary trajectories, with important implications for the natural world in the Anthropocene.}, }
@article {pmid34727307, year = {2022}, author = {Gado, TA and Mohameden, MB and Rashwan, IMH}, title = {Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for the impact assessment of the climate change in Egypt.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {14}, pages = {20200-20220}, pmid = {34727307}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Climate Models ; Egypt ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This study projected the future temperature change for Egypt during the late of this century (2071-2100) for three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), by correcting regional climate model (RCM) simulations of average, maximum, and minimum daily temperature with reference to observed data of 26 stations. Four commonly used methods of bias correction have been applied and evaluated: linear scaling, variance scaling, and theoretical and empirical quantile mapping. The compromise programing results of the applied evaluation criteria show that the best method is the variance scaling, and thus it was applied to transfer the correction factor to the projections. All temperature indices are expected to increase significantly under all scenarios and reach the highest record by the end of the century, i.e., the expected increase in average, maximum, and minimum temperature ranges between 4.08-7.41 °C, 4.55-7.89 °C, and 3.88-7.23 °C, respectively. The largest temperature rise will occur in the summer, with the highest increase in the maximum (minimum) temperature of 10.9 °C (10 °C) in July and August under RCP8.5. The maximum (minimum) winter temperature, on the other hand, will drop by a maximum of 2 °C (1.35 °C) under RCP2.6. The Western Desert and Upper Egypt are the regions most affected by climate change, while the northern region of Egypt is the least affected. These findings would help in impact assessment and adaptation strategies and encourage further investigation to evaluate various climate models in order to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the climate change impacts on different hydrometeorological processes in Egypt.}, }
@article {pmid34725476, year = {2021}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Top climate scientists are sceptical that nations will rein in global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {599}, number = {7883}, pages = {22-24}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-02990-w}, pmid = {34725476}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Anxiety ; Authorship ; Climate Models ; Emigrants and Immigrants ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*trends ; Global Warming/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Gases/supply &amp; distribution ; Hope ; International Cooperation/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Pessimism ; Politics ; Psychological Distress ; Research Personnel/*psychology ; Research Report ; Scotland ; Sustainable Development/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; Uncertainty ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid34725255, year = {2021}, author = {Shindell, D and Ru, M and Zhang, Y and Seltzer, K and Faluvegi, G and Nazarenko, L and Schmidt, GA and Parsons, L and Challapalli, A and Yang, L and Glick, A}, title = {Temporal and spatial distribution of health, labor, and crop benefits of climate change mitigation in the United States.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {46}, pages = {}, pmid = {34725255}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {80NSSC19M0138/ImNASA/Intramural NASA/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Environmental Policy ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; United States ; }, abstract = {Societal benefits from climate change mitigation accrue via multiple pathways. We examine the US impacts of emission changes on several factors that are affected by both climate and air quality responses. Nationwide benefits through midcentury stem primarily from air quality improvements, which are realized rapidly, and include human health, labor productivity, and crop yield benefits. Benefits from reduced heat exposure become large around 2060, thereafter often dominating over those from improved air quality. Monetized benefits are in the tens of trillions of dollars for avoided deaths and tens of billions for labor productivity and crop yield increases and reduced hospital expenditures. Total monetized benefits this century are dominated by health and are much larger than in previous analyses due to improved understanding of the human health impacts of exposure to both heat and air pollution. Benefit-cost ratios are therefore much larger than in prior studies, especially those that neglected clean air benefits. Specifically, benefits from clean air exceed costs in the first decade, whereas benefits from climate alone exceed costs in the latter half of the century. Furthermore, monetized US benefits largely stem from US emissions reductions. Increased emphasis on the localized, near-term air quality-related impacts would better align policies with societal benefits and, by reducing the mismatch between perception of climate as a risk distant in space and time and the need for rapid action to mitigate long-term climate change, might help increase acceptance of mitigation policies.}, }
@article {pmid34721962, year = {2021}, author = {Du, P and Xu, M and Li, R}, title = {Impacts of climate change on water resources in the major countries along the Belt and Road.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e12201}, pmid = {34721962}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has altered global hydrological cycles mainly due to changes in temperature and precipitation, which may exacerbate the global and regional water shortage issues, especially in the countries along the Belt and Road (B&amp;R).<br><br>METHODS: In this paper, we assessed water supply, demand, and stress under three climate change scenarios in the major countries along the Belt and Road. We ensembled ten Global Climate Model (GCM) runoff data and downscaled it to a finer resolution of 0.1&#xb0; &#xd7; 0.1&#xb0; by the random forest model.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results showed that the GCM runoff was highly correlated with the FAO renewable water resources and thus could be used to estimate water supply. Climate change would increase water supply by 4.85%, 5.18%, 8.16% and water demand by 1.45%, 1.68%, 2.36% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios by 2050s, respectively. As a result, climate change will, in general, have little impact on water stress in the B&amp;R countries as a whole. However, climate change will make future water resources more unevenly distributed among the B&amp;R countries and regions, exacerbating water stress in some countries, especially in Central Asia and West Asia. Our results are informative for water resource managers and policymakers in the B&amp;R countries to make sustainable water management strategies under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34721747, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, X and Nishiura, H}, title = {The Epidemic Risk of Dengue Fever in Japan: Climate Change and Seasonality.}, journal = {The Canadian journal of infectious diseases &amp; medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale}, volume = {2021}, number = {}, pages = {6699788}, pmid = {34721747}, issn = {1712-9532}, abstract = {Dengue fever is a leading cause of illness and death in the tropics and subtropics, and the disease has become a threat to many nonendemic countries where the competent vectors such as Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti are abundant. The dengue epidemic in Tokyo, 2014, poses the critical importance to accurately model and predict the outbreak risk of dengue fever in nonendemic regions. Using climatological datasets and traveler volumes in Japan, where dengue was not seen for 70 years by 2014, we investigated the outbreak risk of dengue in 47 prefectures, employing the temperature-dependent basic reproduction number and a branching process model. Our results show that the effective reproduction number varies largely by season and by prefecture, and, moreover, the probability of outbreak if an untraced case is imported varies greatly with the calendar time of importation and location of destination. Combining the seasonally varying outbreak risk with time-dependent traveler volume data, the unconditional outbreak risk was calculated, illustrating different outbreak risks between southern coastal areas and northern tourist cities. As the main finding, the large travel volume with nonnegligible risk of outbreak explains the reason why a summer outbreak in Tokyo, 2014, was observed. Prefectures at high risk of future outbreak would be Tokyo again, Kanagawa or Osaka, and highly populated prefectures with large number of travelers.}, }
@article {pmid34721088, year = {2021}, author = {Mallet, RT and Burtscher, M and Cogo, A}, title = {Editorial: Climate Change in Mountainous Areas and Related Health Effects.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {768112}, pmid = {34721088}, issn = {1664-042X}, }
@article {pmid34720741, year = {2021}, author = {Duan, H and Feng, K and Tong, F}, title = {Climate change mitigation and green transformation in China.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {110}, pmid = {34720741}, issn = {1436-3798}, }
@article {pmid34720740, year = {2021}, author = {Torres, C and Jordà, G and de Vílchez, P and Vaquer-Sunyer, R and Rita, J and Canals, V and Cladera, A and Escalona, JM and Miranda, M&#xc1;}, title = {Climate change and their impacts in the Balearic Islands: a guide for policy design in Mediterranean regions.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {107}, pmid = {34720740}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Understanding the local effects of global warming-derived impacts is important to island systems due to their fragile environmental conditions. This is especially true when it comes to Mediterranean insular regions as they are climate change (CC) hotspots where adaptation and mitigation policy design is an urgent matter. Looking at 2030 as a time horizon for climate action and focusing on the Balearic Islands, this paper reviews the physical changes projected for the coming decades as a result of CC and analyses their impacts on regional environmental, economic and social variables. Mitigation and adaptation measures are also proposed based on the identified priority impacts. The fact the Balearics are a top world holiday destination allows the analysis to serve as a guide to other Mediterranean islands with tourism-based economies facing similar CC scenarios. Results show the projected rise of temperature and sea level; the reduction of the average precipitation and increase in evapotranspiration, the droughts and the increase in ocean acidification and deoxygenation are the main threats faced by the Balearics, this putting their economy at risk due to the high tourism's vulnerability to CC. Mitigation and adaptation action on terrestrial and marine ecosystems, water resources, energy, infrastructure and urban planning, human health, economy, law and education is recommended. Sustainable mobility and waste managing are also viewed as important fields for mitigation action. Conclusions show that diversifying the current socioeconomic model is needed to increase the community and territory resilience.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-021-01810-1.}, }
@article {pmid34720399, year = {2021}, author = {Domingues, JM}, title = {Climate Change and Its Lexicon: An Analytical and Critical View.}, journal = {International journal of politics, culture, and society}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-16}, pmid = {34720399}, issn = {0891-4486}, abstract = {Climate change is an overwhelming issue today, but sociology has yet to fully engage with its hermeneutical and political aspects. The article tackles this limitation and thus the lexicon of climate change, proposing an integrated framework that brings its principal concepts and notions together. In particular, it singles out hazard, risk and threat, vulnerability and resilience, adaptation, mitigation and precaution, Anthropocene and Capitalocene, nature and society. Although some authors have stressed the political aspects underlying these concepts and notions, and the IPCC itself has incipiently recognised this issue, the parameters of the debate remain conspicuously narrow. The article therefore proposes to engage it in direct and strong political terms, countering the partly successful operation of depoliticisation that such concepts and notions undergo. While the article concentrates on discursive aspects, it eventually points to the role of agents and power within the UN system concerning the articulation of this lexicon.}, }
@article {pmid34720263, year = {2021}, author = {Sloggy, MR and Suter, JF and Rad, MR and Manning, DT and Goemans, C}, title = {Changing climate, changing minds? The effects of natural disasters on public perceptions of climate change.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {168}, number = {3-4}, pages = {25}, pmid = {34720263}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {The frequency and intensity of natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and floods are predicted to change as greenhouse gas concentrations increase. These disasters may represent sources of information for individuals as they update their beliefs related to climate change. Using a dataset that includes climate beliefs of respondents, we examine the effect of natural disasters on climate change beliefs and find that hurricanes significantly increase the probability that survey respondents from a given county believe that climate change is occurring and that it is human caused. We find that past experience with certain types of natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes) impacts beliefs regarding whether climate change is occurring and if it is human caused. The research contributes to the literature evaluating climate change attitudes by using spatially disaggregate information on climate change beliefs and exposure to a set of natural disasters over time. Characterizing beliefs and attitudes toward climate change and related policies is important since these beliefs are a determinant of individual adaptation and support for policies related to reducing carbon emissions.}, }
@article {pmid34720261, year = {2021}, author = {Zanchetta, G and Bini, M and Bloomfield, K and Izdebski, A and Vivoli, N and Regattieri, E and Isola, I and Drysdale, RN and Bajo, P and Hellstrom, JC and Wiśniewski, R and Fallick, AE and Natali, S and Luppichini, M}, title = {Beyond one-way determinism: San Frediano's miracle and climate change in Central and Northern Italy in late antiquity.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {165}, number = {1-2}, pages = {25}, pmid = {34720261}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Integrating palaeoclimatological proxies and historical records, which is necessary to achieve a more complete understanding of climate impacts on past societies, is a challenging task, often leading to unsatisfactory and even contradictory conclusions. This has until recently been the case for Italy, the heart of the Roman Empire, during the transition between Antiquity and the Middle Ages. In this paper, we present new high-resolution speleothem data from the Apuan Alps (Central Italy). The data document a period of very wet conditions in the sixth c. AD, probably related to synoptic atmospheric conditions similar to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. For this century, there also exist a significant number of historical records of extreme hydroclimatic events, previously discarded as anecdotal. We show that this varied evidence reflects the increased frequency of floods and extreme rainfall events in Central and Northern Italy at the time. Moreover, we also show that these unusual hydroclimatic conditions overlapped with the increased presence of "water miracles" in Italian hagiographical accounts and social imagination. The miracles, performed by local Church leaders, strengthened the already growing authority of holy bishops and monks in Italian society during the crucial centuries that followed the "Fall of the Roman Empire". Thus, the combination of natural and historical data allows us to show the degree to which the impact of climate variability on historical societies is determined not by the nature of the climatic phenomena per se, but by the culture and the structure of the society that experienced it.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03043-x.}, }
@article {pmid34719077, year = {2022}, author = {Elsen, PR and Saxon, EC and Simmons, BA and Ward, M and Williams, BA and Grantham, HS and Kark, S and Levin, N and Perez-Hammerle, KV and Reside, AE and Watson, JEM}, title = {Accelerated shifts in terrestrial life zones under rapid climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {918-935}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15962}, pmid = {34719077}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Humans ; Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being. Though the magnitude and trajectory of climate change are becoming clearer, our understanding of how these changes reshape terrestrial life zones-distinct biogeographic units characterized by biotemperature, precipitation, and aridity representing broad-scale ecosystem types-is limited. To address this gap, we used high-resolution historical climatologies and climate projections to determine the global distribution of historical (1901-1920), contemporary (1979-2013), and future (2061-2080) life zones. Comparing the historical and contemporary distributions shows that changes from one life zone to another during the 20th century impacted 27 million km[2] (18.3% of land), with consequences for social and ecological systems. Such changes took place in all biomes, most notably in Boreal Forests, Temperate Coniferous Forests, and Tropical Coniferous Forests. Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes would impact an additional 62 million km[2] (42.6% of land) under "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests. While only 30 ecoregions (3.5%) had over half of their areas change to a different life zone during the 20th century, by 2070 this number is projected to climb to 111 ecoregions (13.1%) under RCP4.5 and 281 ecoregions (33.2%) under RCP8.5. We identified weak correlations between life zone change and threatened vertebrate richness, levels of vertebrate endemism, cropland extent, and human population densities within ecoregions, illustrating the ubiquitous risks of life zone changes to diverse social-ecological systems. The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist.}, }
@article {pmid34718622, year = {2021}, author = {Stewart, PM and Mirmira, RG and Kaiser, UB and , }, title = {Environmental Pollution, Climate Change, and a Critical Role for the Endocrinologist.}, journal = {The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism}, volume = {106}, number = {12}, pages = {3381-3384}, doi = {10.1210/clinem/dgab721}, pmid = {34718622}, issn = {1945-7197}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Endocrinologists/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Metabolic Diseases/etiology/*pathology/prevention &amp; control ; Respiration Disorders/etiology/*pathology/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid34717100, year = {2022}, author = {Álvarez-Nieto, C and Richardson, J and Navarro-Perán, M&#xc1; and Tutticci, N and Huss, N and Elf, M and Anåker, A and Aronsson, J and Baid, H and López-Medina, IM}, title = {Nursing students' attitudes towards climate change and sustainability: A cross-sectional multisite study.}, journal = {Nurse education today}, volume = {108}, number = {}, pages = {105185}, doi = {10.1016/j.nedt.2021.105185}, pmid = {34717100}, issn = {1532-2793}, mesh = {Attitude ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate ; Humans ; *Students, Nursing ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Education is a social tipping intervention necessary for stabilising the earth's climate by 2050. Integrating sustainable healthcare into healthcare professions curricula is a key action to raise awareness.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to: i) investigate nursing students' attitudes towards and awareness of climate change and sustainability issues and its inclusion in nurse education, ii) explore differences across a range of countries, and iii) compare attitudes in 2019 with those of a similar sample in 2014.<br><br>DESIGN: A cross-sectional multicentre study. Data were collected through the Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey (SANS_2) questionnaire.<br><br>SETTINGS: Seven different universities and schools of nursing in five countries (UK, Spain, Germany, Sweden, and Australia).<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: A convenience sample of first-year undergraduate nursing students.<br><br>METHODS: The SANS_2 questionnaire was self-administered by nursing students at the seven participating universities at the start of their undergraduate degree, between September 2019 and February 2020.<br><br>RESULTS: Participants from all seven universities (N&#xa0;=&#xa0;846) consistently showed awareness and held positive attitudes towards the inclusion of climate change and sustainability issues in the nursing curriculum (M&#xa0;=&#xa0;5.472; SD: 1.05; min-max 1-6). The relevance of climate change and sustainability to nursing were the highest scored items. Esslingen-T&#xfc;bingen students scored the highest in the 'inclusion of climate change and sustainability in the nursing curricula'. Students at all universities applied the principles of sustainability to a significant extent at home. Nursing students' attitudes towards climate change and sustainability showed significantly higher values in 2019 (Universities of Plymouth, Brighton, Esslingen-T&#xfc;bingen, Jaen, Murcia, Dalarna, and Queensland) than in 2014 (universities of Plymouth, Jaen, Esslingen, and Switzerland).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Nursing students have increasingly positive attitudes towards the inclusion of sustainability and climate change in their nursing curriculum. They also recognise the importance of education regarding sustainability and the impact of climate change on health, supporting formal preparation for environmental literacy. It is time to act on this positive trend in nursing students' attitudes by integrating these competencies into nursing curricula.}, }
@article {pmid34713541, year = {2022}, author = {Iltis, C and Tougeron, K and Hance, T and Louâpre, P and Foray, V}, title = {A perspective on insect-microbe holobionts facing thermal fluctuations in a climate-change context.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {18-29}, doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.15826}, pmid = {34713541}, issn = {1462-2920}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Heat-Shock Response ; *Insecta ; Symbiosis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Temperature influences the ecology and evolution of insects and their symbionts by impacting each partner independently and their interactions, considering the holobiont as a primary unit of selection. There are sound data about the responses of these partnerships to constant temperatures and sporadic thermal stress (mostly heat shock). However, the current understanding of the thermal ecology of insect-microbe holobionts remains patchy because the complex thermal fluctuations (at different spatial and temporal scales) experienced by these organisms in nature have often been overlooked experimentally. This may drastically constrain our ability to predict the fate of mutualistic interactions under climate change, which will alter both mean temperatures and thermal variability. Here, we tackle down these issues by focusing on the effects of temperature fluctuations on the evolutionary ecology of insect-microbe holobionts. We propose potentially worth-investigating research avenues to (i) evaluate the relevance of theoretical concepts used to predict the biological impacts of temperature fluctuations when applied to holobionts; (ii) acknowledge the plastic (behavioural thermoregulation, physiological acclimation) and genetic responses (evolution) expressed by holobionts in fluctuating thermal environments; and (iii) explore the potential impacts of previously unconsidered patterns of temperature fluctuations on the outcomes and the dynamic of these insect-microbe associations.}, }
@article {pmid34713350, year = {2021}, author = {Aslam, B and Khalil, U and Saleem, M and Maqsoom, A and Khan, E}, title = {Effect of multiple climate change scenarios and predicted land-cover on soil erosion: a way forward for the better land management.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {11}, pages = {754}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-021-09559-0}, pmid = {34713350}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Soil ; Soil Erosion ; }, abstract = {The ecosystem, biodiversity, and anthropological existence in the Chitral district are in danger due to the sediments and soil erosion stemming from the changes in the land-cover and climate. This research aims to practice the RUSLE model with the changes in the land-cover and climate in upcoming situations for 2030 and 2040 to evaluate soil erosion annually as per the spatial dissemination and the tendency of sediment yield. The multilayer perceptron (MLP), an artificial neural network (ANN), besides the Markov chain analysis was used to model upcoming land-cover. The Max Planck Institute model, which demonstrated a revised bias as well as downscaled grid size under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was used for examining the future changes in the climate. The modeled land-cover showed that the areas that are primarily comprised of natural trees and shrubs were transformed largely to agriculture and build-up areas. The average rainfall in the future under different RCP situations was elevated compared to the rainfall through historical time. The continuous variability in the R and C factors affects the probable soil erosion rate and sediment yield. Under RCP8.5 for both future years of 2030 and 2040, the extreme erosion rate was assessed at around 500 and 550 t/ha/year. Additionally, under the different RCP scenarios in 2030 and 2040, the outcomes of sediment yield were more significant than the sediment yield through historical time. The results showed that lower regions of the Chitral district are at risk of amplified soil erosion and sediment yield presently, as shown by the historical data and in the future. The produced soil erosion maps using ArcGIS 10.2 can play a valuable role in managing sustainable development, conservation of the watershed of the Chitral River, and reducing soil loss. Effective measures to overcome these concerns and mitigate the possible effects need to be planned and practiced, particularly the decrease in the storage volume of the reservoirs situated on the river.}, }
@article {pmid34712857, year = {2021}, author = {Bogale, GA and Maja, MM and Gebreyohannes, GH}, title = {Modelling the impacts of climate change on faba bean (Vicia faba L.) production in Welmera area, central Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {10}, pages = {e08176}, pmid = {34712857}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change is affecting agricultural production and other aspects of life but only limited number of studies took interest in characterizing and projecting climate and its impact on crop production at local level. The threat to agricultural sector is more serious in Ethiopia, where climate is influenced by diverse topography and varying landscape features. This study was conducted in Welmera area to model the impacts of climate change on production of two faba bean (Vicia faba L.) varieties (Tums and Gora). Historical climate and crop yield data were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia and Holeta Agricultural Research Center, respectively. Future climate data were downscaled by an average ensemble of four GCMs (BSS-CSM1-1, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM, NorESM1-M) in near- and mid-century (2030s and 2050s) under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Rainfall by near-century will increase by up to 50% depending on the concentration pathway considered compared to the baseline period (1988-2017). The projected average rainfall total of belg season (FMAM) will increase by 88.17% under RCP 4.5 scenario and 95.38% under RCP 8.5 scenario in near-century. The future projection revealed that the highest mean monthly rainfall and temperature changes will occur in July (147.3 mm/month) and August (0.24 °C/month) under RCP8.5. However, in August and September mean monthly rainfall will decrease dramatically by 50.85 % and 31.05% from 2020 to 2079 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, respectively. The yield of Tumsa variety will decrease by up to 24.19% under RCP8.5 in mid-century. Gora variety will see an increase of yield by 18.24% under RCP 4.5 in mid-century and 28.03% under RCP 8.5 in near-century. Overall, the area will experience an increase and a decrease in faba bean yield for both varieties in the upcoming decades in the study area. Performance evaluation of the models showed that they were able to predict future yield faba bean varieties in the area with acceptable accuracy. Inconsistency of future climate variables and impact on fababean production underscores the need to develop location-specific adaptation strategies. Further studies that consider wider area could be necessary to better understand the impact of future climate on faba bean production in the study area and similar agroecologies in the country.}, }
@article {pmid34711857, year = {2021}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Matandirotya, NR and Lütz, JM and Alemu, EA and Brearley, FQ and Baidoo, AA and Kateka, A and Ogendi, GM and Adane, GB and Emiru, N and Mbih, RA}, title = {Impacts of climate change to African indigenous communities and examples of adaptation responses.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {6224}, pmid = {34711857}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; Africa ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Indigenous Peoples ; }, abstract = {Climate change negatively impacts the livelihoods of indigenous communities across the world, including those located on the African continent. This Comment reports on how five African indigenous communities have been impacted by climate change and the adopted adaptation mechanisms.}, }
@article {pmid34711818, year = {2021}, author = {Mendoza, V and Pazos, M and Garduño, R and Mendoza, B}, title = {Thermodynamics of climate change between cloud cover, atmospheric temperature and humidity.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {21244}, pmid = {34711818}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {On a global and annual average, we find a parameterization in which the cloud cover increase is proportional to the mid tropospheric temperature increase, with a negative proportionality factor. If the relative humidity is conserved throughout the troposphere, a 1 °C heating (cooling) of the mid troposphere, decreases (increases) the cloud cover by 1.5 percentage points (pp). But if the relative humidity is not conserved, then the cloud cover decreases (increases) by 7.6 pp. If the shortwave reflection effect of the cloud cover is dominant on a global scale, this parameterization leads to a predominant positive feedback: if the temperature increases like in the current climate change, the cloud cover decreases and more solar radiation reaches the surface increasing the temperature even more. The contribution of the present work consists in finding that the negative sign of the proportionality factor is due to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation; that is, to the magnitude of the derivative of the saturation vapor pressure at the typical standard surface temperature of 288 K. The negative sign of the factor is independent on the conservation or non-conservation of relative humidity in the troposphere under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34711604, year = {2021}, author = {Wise, J}, title = {The doctors getting arrested for climate change: a professional duty?.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {375}, number = {}, pages = {n2565}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.n2565}, pmid = {34711604}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid34711545, year = {2021}, author = {Cameron, G and , }, title = {Less than half of the public believe the NHS has a responsibility to reduce its impact on climate change. Does it matter?.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {375}, number = {}, pages = {n2629}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.n2629}, pmid = {34711545}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Opinion ; *Social Responsibility ; *State Medicine ; *Sustainable Development ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid34710430, year = {2022}, author = {Dong, H and Feng, Z and Yang, Y and Li, P and You, Z and Xiao, C}, title = {Sub-national climate change risk assessment: A case analysis for Tibet and its prefecture-level cities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {807}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {151045}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151045}, pmid = {34710430}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Carbon Footprint ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Risk Assessment ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Avoiding climate change from exceeding its critical threshold is a serious challenge facing humanity at present and in the future. As the mode of global cooperative action is stranded, multi-center and multi-level efforts are needed to deal with global warming in the future. In order to provide information for the formulation of low-carbon development policies, it is essential to assess the maintain or cross of climate change threshold on different scales. In this study, the carbon footprint calculated based on the process coefficient approach is systematically integrated with the climate change indicator of the planetary boundaries framework improved with the goals of the Paris Agreement to identify the climate change risks of Tibet and its prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2017. Moreover, the main driving factors behind carbon footprint were analyzed. The findings showed that: (1) Since 2000, Tibet's CO2 emissions have demonstrated steady and rapid increase. The sector composition is dominated by cement production-related and transportation sector-related emissions. The type composition is dominated by diesel-related, process-related, and coal-related emissions. There are significant differences in CO2 emissions among all prefecture-level cities, with Lhasa having the largest contribution. (2) Except for Lhasa and Shannan's CO2 emissions that have crossed their critical threshold of climate change and are in an unsafe state, Tibet and other prefecture-level cities have not yet crossed their critical threshold. (3) Except for Ngari, per capita GDP, energy intensity, population size, and carbon intensity positively affect the increase of CO2 emissions in Tibet and its prefecture-level cities. Our study helps actors at less aggregated scales to determine appropriate policy strengths based on globally agreed goals and ambitions in the process of responding to global warming in a bottom-up manner.}, }
@article {pmid34707633, year = {2021}, author = {Descamps, C and Quinet, M and Jacquemart, AL}, title = {Climate Change-Induced Stress Reduce Quantity and Alter Composition of Nectar and Pollen From a Bee-Pollinated Species (Borago officinalis, Boraginaceae).}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {755843}, pmid = {34707633}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {In temperate ecosystems, elevated temperatures, and drought occur especially during spring and summer, which are crucial periods for flowering, pollination, and reproduction of a majority of temperate plants. While many mechanisms may underlie pollinator decline in the wake of climate change, the interactive effects of temperature and water stress on the quantity and quality of floral nectar and pollen resources remain poorly studied. We investigated the impact of temperature rise (+3 and +6°C) and water stress (soil humidity lower than 15%) on the floral resources produced by the bee-pollinated species Borago officinalis. Nectar volume decreased with both temperature rise and water stress (6.1 ± 0.5 μl per flower under control conditions, 0.8 ± 0.1 μl per flower under high temperature and water stress conditions), resulting in a 60% decrease in the total quantity of nectar sugars (mg) produced per flower. Temperature rise but not water stress also induced a 50% decrease in pollen weight per flower but a 65% increase in pollen polypeptide concentration. Both temperature rise and water stress increased the total amino acid concentration and the essential amino acid percentage in nectar but not in pollen. In both pollen and nectar, the relative percentage of the different amino acids were modified under stresses. We discuss these modifications in floral resources in regards to plant-pollinator interactions and consequences on plant pollination success and on insect nutritional needs.}, }
@article {pmid34707210, year = {2021}, author = {Cao, W and Wu, D and Huang, L and Pan, M and Huhe, T}, title = {Determinizing the contributions of human activities and climate change on greening in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {21201}, pmid = {34707210}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {China accounts for 25% of the global greening. There are temporal and spatial differences of China's greening and intrinsic driving forces. Thus, it is crucial to determinize the contributions of human activities and climate change on greening at region scale. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (BTHR) is one of the most active areas with human activities in China. It is necessary to explore negative or positive impacts of human activities on the regional greening or browning under climate change. A time series of annual vegetation coverage from satellite data was selected to quantify regional greening in the BTHR from 2000 to 2019 and their responses to climate change and human activities. Results showed generally widespread greening over the last 20 years at an average increased rate of 0.036 decade[-1] in vegetation coverage (P < 0.01). Overall warmer and wetter climate across the BTHR were positively correlated with regional greening. The positive effects of human activities on greening accounted for 48.4% of the BTHR, especially the benefits of ecological restoration projects and the agricultural activities. Increases in vegetation coverage had resulted from the combined effects of climate change and human activities. Climate change had a stronger influence on vegetation coverage than human activities. Contributions of climate change to greening and browning was about 74.1% and < 20%, respectively. The decrease in vegetation coverage was mainly the results of the inhibition of human activities. More detailed socioeconomic and anthropogenic datasets are required for further analysis. Further research consideration would focus on the nonlinear responses of vegetation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34706138, year = {2022}, author = {Grigoratou, M and Monteiro, FM and Wilson, JD and Ridgwell, A and Schmidt, DN}, title = {Exploring the impact of climate change on the global distribution of non-spinose planktonic foraminifera using a trait-based ecosystem model.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {1063-1076}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15964}, pmid = {34706138}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon Cycle ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Foraminifera/physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; Plankton/physiology ; }, abstract = {Planktonic foraminifera are one of the primary calcifiers in the modern ocean, contributing 23%-56% of total global pelagic carbonate production. However, a mechanistic understanding of how physiology and environmental conditions control their abundance and distribution is lacking, hindering the projection of the impact of future climate change. This understanding is important, not only for ecosystem dynamics, but also for marine carbon cycling because of foraminifera's key role in carbonate production. Here we present and apply a global trait-based ecosystem model of non-spinose planktonic foraminifera ('ForamEcoGEnIE') to assess their ecology and global distribution under future climate change. ForamEcoGEnIE considers the traits of calcium carbonate production, shell size, and foraging. It captures the main characteristic of biogeographical patterns of non-spinose species - with maximum biomass concentrations found in mid- to high-latitude waters and upwelling areas. The model also reproduces the magnitude of global carbonate production relatively well, although the foraminifera standing stock is systematically overestimated. In response to future scenarios of rising atmospheric CO2 (RCP6 and RCP8.5), on a regional scale, the modelled foraminifera biomass and export flux increases in the subpolar regions of the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean while it decreases everywhere else. In the absence of adaptation, the biomass decline in the low-latitude South Pacific suggests extirpation. The model projects a global average loss in non-spinose foraminifera biomass between 8% (RCP6) and 11% (RCP8.5) by 2050 and between 14% and 18% by 2100 as a response to ocean warming and associated changes in primary production and ecological dynamics. Global calcium carbonate flux associated with non-spinose foraminifera declines by 13%-18% by 2100. That decline can slow down the ocean carbonate pump and create short-term positive feedback on rising atmospheric pCO2 .}, }
@article {pmid34705913, year = {2021}, author = {Korr, M}, title = {Frozen Obsession documentary follows URI team studying climate change in the Arctic.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {104}, number = {9}, pages = {67-69}, pmid = {34705913}, issn = {2327-2228}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34705912, year = {2021}, author = {Varone, F and Binder, W}, title = {A Case of Heat Stroke in the Era of Climate Change.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {104}, number = {9}, pages = {63-66}, pmid = {34705912}, issn = {2327-2228}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Heat Stroke/diagnosis ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34705910, year = {2021}, author = {Baugh, J and Kemen, K and Messervy, J and Biddinger, P}, title = {Beyond the Hazard Vulnerability Analysis: Preparing Health Systems for Climate Change.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {104}, number = {9}, pages = {55-59}, pmid = {34705910}, issn = {2327-2228}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Disasters ; Floods ; Government Programs ; Humans ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is heightening both long-term adverse risks to human health and the immediate-term risk of injuries and illness following climate-related disaster events that are becoming more frequent and severe. In addition to its direct health effects, climate change poses new threats to the nation's health care infrastructure - with potential to negatively impact healthcare capacity amidst increasing demand - through risks of flooding, wind damage, heat stress, power outages, and other physical harm to facilities. The typical Hazard Vulnerability Analyses conducted annually by hospitals use historical data to assess risks; these analyses are likely now inadequate for future preparation due to the impact of climate change. This article describes one approach to how healthcare leaders can better assess both near-term and long-term risks due to climate change, to mitigate against unprecedented but foreseeable threats.<br><br>METHODS: In our large health system in the US Northeast, a process was undertaken to gather updated data and expert projections to forecast threats faced by each of our facilities in different climate-related disaster scenarios. Hazards examined in our setting included precipitation-based and coastal flooding events, heat waves, and high wind events, in addition to seismic events. Probabilities of occurrence and extents of different hazards were projected for the near term (2030) and the long term (2070). We then performed detailed vulnerability analyses for each facility with the predicted amount of rainfall, storm surge, heat stress, and windspeed, in collaboration with leaders at each facility. This was followed by a process to understand what would be needed to mitigate each vulnerability along with the associated costs. Ultimately, a cost/benefit analysis was performed - incorporating the relative likelihood and impact of different scenarios - to decide which improvement projects to embark on immediately, and what to defer and/or incorporate into future building plans.<br><br>RESULTS: In our system, all facilities were vulnerable to the effects of increased temperatures, and multiple hospitals were noted to be vulnerable to extreme precipitation, storm surge, and high winds. Specific damaging scenarios identified included flooding of basements and building infrastructure spaces, water entry through windows during high winds, and overheating of power systems during heat waves. Potential solutions included improved power redundancy for cooling systems, enhancements to roof and window systems, and the acquisition of deployable flood barriers. We identified four categories for prioritization of action based on projected impact: 1) priorities in need of urgent mitigation, 2) priorities in need of investigative study for medium-term mitigation, 3) priorities for planned capital improvement projects, and 4) priorities to integrate into new facility construction.<br><br>DISCUSSION: While the specific risks and vulnerabilities for each facility will differ according to its location and structural features, the approach we describe is broadly applicable. By forecasting specific risks, diagnosing vulnerabilities, developing potential solutions, and using a risk/benefit approach to decision making, hospitals can work toward protecting facilities and patients in the face of potential climate related natural disasters in an economically sound manner.}, }
@article {pmid34705909, year = {2021}, author = {Dresser, C and Gentile, E and Lyons, R and Sullivan, K and Balsari, S}, title = {Climate Change and Health in New England: A Review of Training and Policy Initiatives at Health Education Institutions and Professional Societies.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {104}, number = {9}, pages = {49-54}, pmid = {34705909}, issn = {2327-2228}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Education ; Health Personnel/education ; Humans ; Policy ; *Societies ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There has been increasing interest in climate change among healthcare professionals, but it is unclear to what extent resources on this topic are available to students and clinicians in New England.<br><br>METHODS: Structured review of publicly available information regarding climate change and health activity at schools of medicine, public health, and physician assistant studies and in state medical and physician assistant societies in New England.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 39 programs reviewed, 18 (46%) had at least one climate-related initiative. Six universities accounted for 87% of climate change and health initiatives in the region. Three out of 12 state professional associations had committees or position statements addressing climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There is substantial activity related to climate change and health in New England, but it is concentrated in a small number of locations. Opportunities exist to improve access to education on this topic and increase involvement of health professional associations.}, }
@article {pmid34705908, year = {2021}, author = {Calabro, R and Hoffman, C}, title = {The Rhode Island Climate Change and Health Program: Building Knowledge and Community Resilience.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {104}, number = {9}, pages = {45-48}, pmid = {34705908}, issn = {2327-2228}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Housing ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Rhode Island ; }, abstract = {Climate change acts as a risk multiplier, meaning vulnerable populations bear a disproportionate burden of its effects. Improving climate resiliency is a key strategy to help the Rhode Island Department of Health meet its overarching goals of addressing the socio-economic and environmental determinants of health for all Rhode Islanders. The Climate Change and Health Program focuses on both the immediate health impacts of climate change and building resiliency. Part of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Climate Ready States and Cities Initiative, the Program has partnered with community groups and other state and local agencies to bring technical assistance, educational resources, and funding to support community resilience to the challenges presented by the already changing climate. Specific projects discussed include the extreme heat communications plan and outdoor worker campaign; community-driven resiliency projects in response to flooding and natural hazards, and improving resilience in senior citizen housing.}, }
@article {pmid34705904, year = {2021}, author = {Ginsberg, HS and Couret, J and Garrett, J and Mather, TN and LeBrun, RA}, title = {Potential Effects of Climate Change on Tick-borne Diseases in Rhode Island.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {104}, number = {9}, pages = {29-33}, pmid = {34705904}, issn = {2327-2228}, mesh = {Anaplasmosis/epidemiology ; Animals ; Babesiosis/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Food Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; Humans ; Lyme Disease/epidemiology ; Rhode Island/epidemiology ; *Tick-Borne Diseases/epidemiology ; United States ; }, abstract = {Human cases of tick-borne diseases have been increasing in the United States. In particular, the incidence of Lyme disease, the major vector-borne disease in Rhode Island, has risen, along with cases of babesiosis and anaplasmosis, all vectored by the blacklegged tick. These increases might relate, in part, to climate change, although other environmental changes in the northeastern U.S. (land use as it relates to habitat; vertebrate host populations for tick reproduction and enzootic cycling) also contribute. Lone star ticks, formerly southern in distribution, have been spreading northward, including expanded distributions in Rhode Island. Illnesses associated with this species include ehrlichiosis and alpha-gal syndrome, which are expected to increase. Ranges of other tick species have also been expanding in southern New England, including the Gulf Coast tick and the introduced Asian longhorned tick. These ticks can carry human pathogens, but the implications for human disease in Rhode Island are unclear.}, }
@article {pmid34705899, year = {2021}, author = {Damle, NS}, title = {Climate Change and Human Health.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {104}, number = {9}, pages = {11-12}, pmid = {34705899}, issn = {2327-2228}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Human Rights ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid34705898, year = {2021}, author = {Binder, W}, title = {Climate Change and Health: A Special Edition of the Rhode Island Medical Journal.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {104}, number = {9}, pages = {9-10}, pmid = {34705898}, issn = {2327-2228}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Rhode Island ; }, }
@article {pmid34705748, year = {2021}, author = {Pillai, P and Patz, JA and Seibert, CS}, title = {Climate Change and Environmental Health Must Be Integrated Into Medical Education.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {96}, number = {11}, pages = {1501-1502}, doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000004238}, pmid = {34705748}, issn = {1938-808X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Education, Medical ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34705205, year = {2022}, author = {Yasin, M and Ahmad, A and Khaliq, T and Habib-Ur-Rahman, M and Niaz, S and Gaiser, T and Ghafoor, I and Hassan, HSU and Qasim, M and Hoogenboom, G}, title = {Climate change impact uncertainty assessment and adaptations for sustainable maize production using multi-crop and climate models.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {13}, pages = {18967-18988}, pmid = {34705205}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; Climate Models ; Uncertainty ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Future climate scenarios are predicting considerable threats to sustainable maize production in arid and semi-arid regions. These adverse impacts can be minimized by adopting modern agricultural tools to assess and develop successful adaptation practices. A multi-model approach (climate and crop) was used to assess the impacts and uncertainties of climate change on maize crop. An extensive field study was conducted to explore the temporal thermal variations on maize hybrids grown at farmer's fields for ten sowing dates during two consecutive growing years. Data about phenology, morphology, biomass development, and yield were recorded by adopting standard procedures and protocols. The CSM-CERES, APSIM, and CSM-IXIM-Maize models were calibrated and evaluated. Five GCMs among 29 were selected based on classification into different groups and uncertainty to predict climatic changes in the future. The results predicted that there would be a rise in temperature (1.57-3.29 °C) during the maize growing season in five General Circulation Models (GCMs) by using RCP 8.5 scenarios for the mid-century (2040-2069) as compared with the baseline (1980-2015). The CERES-Maize and APSIM-Maize model showed lower root mean square error values (2.78 and 5.41), higher d-index (0.85 and 0.87) along reliable R[2] (0.89 and 0.89), respectively for days to anthesis and maturity, while the CSM-IXIM-Maize model performed well for growth parameters (leaf area index, total dry matter) and yield with reasonably good statistical indices. The CSM-IXIM-Maize model performed well for all hybrids during both years whereas climate models, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-MR, showed less uncertain results for climate change impacts. Maize models along GCMs predicted a reduction in yield (8-55%) than baseline. Maize crop may face a high yield decline that could be overcome by modifying the sowing dates and fertilizer (fertigation) and heat and drought-tolerant hybrids.}, }
@article {pmid34704308, year = {2022}, author = {Breiner, FT and Anand, M and Butchart, SHM and Flörke, M and Fluet-Chouinard, E and Guisan, A and Hilarides, L and Jones, VR and Kalyakin, M and Lehner, B and van Leeuwen, M and Pearce-Higgins, JW and Voltzit, O and Nagy, S}, title = {Setting priorities for climate change adaptation of Critical Sites in the Africa-Eurasian waterbird flyways.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {739-752}, pmid = {34704308}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Despite their importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services, wetlands are among the most threatened ecosystems globally. The conservation of many migratory waterbirds depends on the conservation of a network of key sites along their flyways. However, the suitability of these sites is changing under climate change, and it is important that management of individual sites in the network adapts to these changes. Using bioclimatic models that also account for changes in inundation, we found that projected climate change will reduce habitat suitability for waterbirds at 57.5% of existing Critical Sites within Africa-Eurasia, varying from 20.1% in Eastern Europe to 87.0% in Africa. African and Middle East sites are particularly threatened, comprising 71 of the 100 most vulnerable sites. By highlighting priority sites for conservation and classifying Critical Sites into Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (CCAS) classes, our results can be used to support the climate change adaptation of both individual sites and the entire site network.}, }
@article {pmid34704073, year = {2021}, author = {Häußler, S and Haupt, W}, title = {Climate change adaptation networks for small and medium-sized cities.}, journal = {SN social sciences}, volume = {1}, number = {11}, pages = {262}, pmid = {34704073}, issn = {2662-9283}, abstract = {Cities are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Many larger cities have identified the potential impacts of different climate change adaptation scenarios. However, their smaller and medium-sized counterparts are often not able to address climate risks effectively due to a lack of necessary resources. Since a large number of cities worldwide are indeed small and medium-sized, this lack of preparedness represents a crucial weakness in global response systems. A promising approach to tackling this issue is to establish regional municipal networks. Yet, how might a regional network for small and medium-sized cities be systematically designed and further developed? Focussing on the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, we have explored this question by applying a participatory action research approach. As part of our research, we established a regional network framework for small and medium-sized cities. The framework supports small and medium-sized cities in identifying key regional actors, while taking local and regional contextual factors into account. Based on our findings, we suggest that other small and medium sized cities follow these steps: develop the knowledge base; build the network; and transfer and consolidate knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid34704037, year = {2021}, author = {Goodess, C and Berk, S and Ratna, SB and Brousse, O and Davies, M and Heaviside, C and Moore, G and Pineo, H}, title = {Climate change projections for sustainable and healthy cities.}, journal = {Buildings &amp; cities}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {812-836}, pmid = {34704037}, issn = {2632-6655}, support = {209387/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The ambition to develop sustainable and healthy cities requires city-specific policy and practice founded on a multidisciplinary evidence base, including projections of human-induced climate change. A cascade of climate models of increasing complexity and resolution is reviewed, which provides the basis for constructing climate projections-from global climate models with a typical horizontal resolution of a few hundred kilometres, through regional climate models at 12-50 km to convection-permitting models at 1 km resolution that permit the representation of urban induced climates. Different approaches to modelling the urban heat island (UHI) are also reviewed-focusing on how climate model outputs can be adjusted and coupled with urban canopy models to better represent UHI intensity, its impacts and variability. The latter can be due to changes induced by urbanisation or to climate change itself. City interventions such as greater use of green infrastructure also have an effect on the UHI and can help to reduce adverse health impacts such as heat stress and the mortality associated with increasing heat. Examples for the Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health (CUSSH) partner cities of London, Rennes, Kisumu, Nairobi, Beijing and Ningbo illustrate how cities could potentially make use of more detailed models and projections to develop and evaluate policies and practices targeted at their specific environmental and health priorities.<br><br>PRACTICE RELEVANCE: Large-scale climate projections for the coming decades show robust trends in rising air temperatures, including more warm days and nights, and longer/more intense warm spells and heatwaves. This paper describes how more complex and higher resolution regional climate and urban canopy models can be combined with the aim of better understanding and quantifying how these larger scale patterns of change may be modified at the city or finer scale. These modifications may arise due to urbanisation and effects such as the UHI, as well as city interventions such as the greater use of grey and green infrastructures.There is potential danger in generalising from one city to another-under certain conditions some cities may experience an urban cool island, or little future intensification of the UHI, for example. City-specific, tailored climate projections combined with tailored health impact models contribute to an evidence base that supports built environment professionals, urban planners and policymakers to ensure designs for buildings and urban areas are fit for future climates.}, }
@article {pmid34704017, year = {2021}, author = {Ranger, N and Mahul, O and Monasterolo, I}, title = {Managing the financial risks of climate change and pandemics: What we know (and don't know).}, journal = {One earth (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {1375-1385}, pmid = {34704017}, issn = {2590-3322}, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic is generating the largest shock in the global economy since 1929. Although the pandemic has been unprecedented in scale and type, such complex, compounding shocks are not uncommon and are more likely in our modern, interconnected world. Our ability to assess and anticipate compounding risks is limited. Here, we propose a framework for assessing the economic losses associated with compounding climate, economic, and pandemic shocks. We propose a new metric, the compound risk multiplier, to measure the scale of the amplification effect and find that this can peak at over 150%; that is, the GDP impacts of the compound shock can be 50% larger than the sum of the individual shocks. Our results suggest that ignoring compounding risks could be a major blindspot in our ability to prepare for future crises. This underlines the urgency of accounting for compounding shocks within financial, fiscal, and crisis risk management.}, }
@article {pmid34703067, year = {2021}, author = {Pathak, M and Roy, J and Patel, S and Some, S and Vyas, P and Das, N and Shukla, P}, title = {Communicating climate change findings from IPCC reports: insights from outreach events in India.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {168}, number = {3-4}, pages = {23}, pmid = {34703067}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {In recent years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been collaborating with Indian institutions to organise outreach events. This essay draws on the perspective of participants, speakers and organisers of 17 in-person outreach events conducted across India in 2018 and 2020, to share insights and recommendations for future IPCC events in India and other developing country contexts. The formats analysed in this essay range from panel events with very large public audiences to more focused workshops, meetings and seminars. Target audiences covered both academic and non-academic audiences and included researchers, teachers, students, industry and NGOs. The events, while achieving their main objective of communicating the findings of IPCC reports, also provided a platform for open discussion of localised climate impacts and good practices in adaptation and mitigation. There are, however, notable challenges to public outreach in India, specifically in terms of attracting an adequate number of participants, experts' availability, communicating to a diverse audience and translation into local languages. The biggest challenge faced by speakers was a lack of knowledge about the number of attendees and the composition of the audience prior to an event. It is our recommendation that future outreach events in India are designed to be interactive, tailored to the regional context and complemented by simplified communication materials. Speakers should be provided with audience information and background prior to the event, and greater reach into rural areas, including school children, could be achieved with material in local languages. Additionally, event organisers often require logistical and operational support to host outreach events.}, }
@article {pmid34702856, year = {2021}, author = {Benedetti, F and Vogt, M and Elizondo, UH and Righetti, D and Zimmermann, NE and Gruber, N}, title = {Author Correction: Major restructuring of marine plankton assemblages under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {6256}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-26564-6}, pmid = {34702856}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid34699820, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, H and Hobbie, EA and Feng, P and Niu, L and Hu, K}, title = {Can conservation agriculture mitigate climate change and reduce environmental impacts for intensive cropping systems in North China Plain?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {806}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {151194}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151194}, pmid = {34699820}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon/analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Fertilizers ; *Soil ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Determining appropriate farming management practices to adapt to climate change with lower environmental costs is important for sustainable agricultural production. In this study, a long-term experiment (1985-2019) was conducted under different management practices combining fertilization rate (no, low and high N fertilizer, N0, N1 and N2), straw additions (no, low and high addition, S0, S1 and S2) with conservation tillage (no-tillage, NT) in the North China Plain (NCP). The Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model was firstly evaluated using the experimental data, and then applied to simulate the changes of crop yields, soil organic carbon (SOC), and N2O emissions under different management practices combined with climate change scenarios, under low and high emission scenarios of societal development pathways (SSP245 and SSP585, respectively) with climate projections from 2031 to 2100. Under the low emission scenario (SSP245), wheat yields were the highest with the NT-N1-S2 treatment (a 23% increase relative to the baseline (1981-2010)). For maize yields, the NT-N1-S1 treatment increased 46% relative to baseline under the SSP585, whereas, the yields increased less in all treatments under SSP245-2040s. The SOC was predicted to increase by 6-60% by 2100 under SSP245. Straw addition and tillage were the main factors influencing SOC. N fertilizer was the most important driver for wheat and maize yields, however, N2O emissions from soil increased with increased application of N fertilizer. Therefore, the no-tillage method under low N fertilizer and high straw addition (NT-N1-S2) is recommended to promote crop yields and substantially increase SOC under SSP245 and SSP585. Conservation agriculture practices can potentially offset crop yield reductions, increase soil quality, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the NCP, and ensure crop production to meet the growing demand for food under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34699738, year = {2021}, author = {Rodgers, EM}, title = {Adding climate change to the mix: responses of aquatic ectotherms to the combined effects of eutrophication and warming.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {17}, number = {10}, pages = {20210442}, pmid = {34699738}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cyanobacteria ; Ecosystem ; Eutrophication ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The threat of excessive nutrient enrichment, or eutrophication, is intensifying across the globe as climate change progresses, presenting a major management challenge. Alterations in precipitation patterns and increases in temperature are increasing nutrient loadings in aquatic habitats and creating conditions that promote the proliferation of cyanobacterial blooms. The exacerbating effects of climate warming on eutrophication are well established, but we lack an in-depth understanding of how aquatic ectotherms respond to eutrophication and warming in tandem. Here, I provide a brief overview and critique of studies exploring the cumulative impacts of eutrophication and warming on aquatic ectotherms, and provide forward direction using mechanistically focused, multi-threat experiments to disentangle complex interactions. Evidence to date suggests that rapid warming will exacerbate the negative effects of eutrophication on aquatic ectotherms, but gradual warming will induce physiological remodelling that provides protection against nutrients and hypoxia. Moving forward, research will benefit from a greater focus on unveiling cause and effect mechanisms behind interactions and designing treatments that better mimic threat dynamics in nature. This approach will enable robust predictions of species responses to ongoing eutrophication and climate warming and enable the integration of climate warming into eutrophication management policies.}, }
@article {pmid34697705, year = {2022}, author = {Afuye, GA and Kalumba, AM and Busayo, ET and Orimoloye, IR}, title = {A bibliometric review of vegetation response to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {13}, pages = {18578-18590}, pmid = {34697705}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Bibliometrics ; China ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Global assessment of vegetation response to climate change (VRCC) studies was conducted to reveal the research evolution, current research hotspots and better understanding of dominant themes in VRCC areas of research from 1992 to 2019 through the use of bibliometrics. A total of 186 articles with the search term "Vegetation response to Climate change" were retrieved using the Web of Science (WOS) database. The annual growth rate of 10.3% connotes that research on VRCC has been increasing over time during the survey period. Average citations per article experienced many fluctuations over the years rather than maintaining the same growth rate, which connotes that this field of research reached was unstable in terms of average total citation per document. Results show that China ranked first followed by the USA and the UK, and this shows the dominance of these countries on VRCC studies over the years in review. Results from corresponding authors' nationalities show that multiple-country publications are relatively low compared to articles from single-country publications which showed a dominant trend. Hence, we can infer that most studies on VRCC were sustained by single-country publications. Results from this study revealed top-cited articles, the top global distribution of documents, academic collaboration, most relevant keywords and Word TreeMap of high-frequency keywords. The findings of this study show that "temperature" is in a central position in all keywords with the largest significant appearance in the field. In conclusion, the findings from this study may be applicable for planning and managing vegetation and forest ecosystem research and provide hints for future development.}, }
@article {pmid34694628, year = {2021}, author = {Giudice, LC and Llamas-Clark, EF and DeNicola, N and Pandipati, S and Zlatnik, MG and Decena, DCD and Woodruff, TJ and Conry, JA and , }, title = {Climate change, women's health, and the role of obstetricians and gynecologists in leadership.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {155}, number = {3}, pages = {345-356}, pmid = {34694628}, issn = {1879-3479}, support = {//Tides Foundation/ ; //JPV Foundation/ ; //Passport Foundation/ ; P30 ES030284/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P01 ES022841/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; //FIGO Committee on Climate Change and Toxic Environmental Exposures/ ; }, mesh = {Aged ; *Air Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Leadership ; Pregnancy ; Public Health ; Women's Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the major global health threats to the world's population. It is brought on by global warming due in large part to increasing levels of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity, including burning fossil fuels (carbon dioxide), animal husbandry (methane from manure), industry emissions (ozone, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide), vehicle/factory exhaust, and chlorofluorocarbon aerosols that trap extra heat in the earth's atmosphere. Resulting extremes of weather give rise to wildfires, air pollution, changes in ecology, and floods. These in turn result in displacement of populations, family disruption, violence, and major impacts on water quality and availability, food security, public health and economic infrastructures, and limited abilities for civil society to maintain citizen safety. Climate change also has direct impacts on human health and well-being. Particularly vulnerable populations are affected, including women, pregnant women, children, the disabled, and the elderly, who comprise the majority of the poor globally. Additionally, the effects of climate change disproportionally affect disadvantaged communities, including low income and communities of color, and lower-income countries that are at highest risk of adverse impacts when disasters occur due to inequitable distribution of resources and their socioeconomic status. The climate crisis is tilting the risk balance unfavorably for women's sexual and reproductive health and rights as well as newborn and child health. Obstetrician/gynecologists have the unique opportunity to raise awareness, educate, and advocate for mitigation strategies to reverse climate change affecting our patients and their families. This article puts climate change in the context of women's reproductive health as a public health issue, a social justice issue, a human rights issue, an economic issue, a political issue, and a gender issue that needs our attention now for the health and well-being of this and future generations. FIGO joins a broad coalition of international researchers and the medical community in stating that the current climate crisis presents an imminent health risk to pregnant people, developing fetuses, and reproductive health, and recognizing that we need society-wide solutions, government policies, and global cooperation to address and reduce contributors, including fossil fuel production, to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34693643, year = {2022}, author = {Simmonds, KE and Jenkins, J and White, B and Nicholas, PK and Bell, J}, title = {Health impacts of climate change on gender diverse populations: A scoping review.}, journal = {Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing}, volume = {54}, number = {1}, pages = {81-91}, doi = {10.1111/jnu.12701}, pmid = {34693643}, issn = {1547-5069}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: To determine what is known about climate change health effects for gender diverse (GD) populations, and identify gaps in research, practice, education, and policy.<br><br>DESIGN/METHODS: A scoping review was conducted.<br><br>FINDINGS: Twenty-seven information sources met inclusion criteria. Natural disasters and inadequate disaster relief responses were identified as an overarching health threat for GD populations. Within this theme, four sub-themes emerged. No other climate-related health impacts for GD populations were mentioned in the sources reviewed.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There are major gaps in knowledge about health implications of climate change for GD populations. Gender-sensitive data must be collected in order to better understand these threats and detect disparities. Currently most practice and policy recommendations focus on disaster relief. More research on the broad effects of climate change on GD populations is urgently needed to inform practice and policy.<br><br>CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Climate change amplifies existing risks of adverse health outcomes. Because of discrimination, stigma, and violence, gender diverse individuals are particularly vulnerable.}, }
@article {pmid34693620, year = {2021}, author = {Sun, X and Pei, J and Zhao, L and Ahmad, B and Huang, LF}, title = {Fighting climate change: soil bacteria communities and topography play a role in plant colonization of desert areas.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {23}, number = {11}, pages = {6876-6894}, doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.15799}, pmid = {34693620}, issn = {1462-2920}, mesh = {Bacteria/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; *Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Global warming has exacerbated desertification in arid regions. Exploring the environmental variables and microbial communities that drive the dynamics of geographic patterns of desert crops is important for large-scale standardization of crops that can control desertification. Here, predictions based on future climate data from CMIP6 show that a steady expand in the suitable production areas for three desert plants (Cistanche deserticola, Cynomorium songaricum and Cistanche salsa) under global warming, demonstrating their high adaptability to future climate change. We examined the biogeography of three desert plant soil bacteria communities and assessed the environmental factors affecting the community assembly process. The α-diversity significantly decreased along elevated latitudes, indicating that the soil bacterial communities of the three species have latitude diversity patterns. The neutral community model evaluated 66.6% of the explained variance of the bacterial community in the soil of desert plants and Modified Stochasticity Ratio <0.5, suggesting that deterministic processes dominate the assembly of bacterial communities in three desert plants. Moreover, topography (longitude, elevation) and precipitation as well as key OTUs (OTU4911: Streptomyces eurythermus and OTU4672: Streptomyces flaveus) drive the colonization of three desert plants. This research offers a promising solution for desert management in arid areas under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid34693334, year = {2021}, author = {Akrofi, MM and Mahama, M and Nevo, CM}, title = {Nexus between the gendered socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 and climate change: implications for pandemic recovery.}, journal = {SN social sciences}, volume = {1}, number = {8}, pages = {198}, pmid = {34693334}, issn = {2662-9283}, abstract = {Gender is a critical factor in how people respond to, and recover from major disruptions such as natural disasters or disease outbreaks. Climate-related disasters are known to pose-gender specific problems that disproportionately affect more women than men. Similarly, the COVID-19 pandemic's impacts along gender lines are enormous, with women being the worst-affected. Existing studies have drawn connections between COVID-19 and climate change, with most arguing that responses to the pandemic provide an opportunity to tackle climate change through emission reduction strategies as part of recovery efforts. We introduce a new dimension to this connection by demonstrating that though different phenomena, COVID-19 and climate change are not so dissimilar in terms of their gendered socioeconomic impacts. Through a systematic review of the available literature, we establish a nexus between these impacts, and examine how the gender responses to COVID-19 can be leveraged to address gender-related climate impacts. We find that social protection, labor market, economic, and violence against women measures adopted in response to the pandemic provide a good opportunity to address the gender impacts of climate change as well. However, current COVID-19 gender responses do not incorporate the interconnections between the gender impacts of the pandemic and climate change. Adopting a nexus approach could help to leverage COVID-19 responses to address the gendered socioeconomic impacts of both crises.}, }
@article {pmid34693329, year = {2021}, author = {Chowdhury, MTA and Ahmed, KJ and Ahmed, MNQ and Haq, SMA}, title = {How do teachers' perceptions of climate change vary in terms of importance, causes, impacts and mitigation? A comparative study in Bangladesh.}, journal = {SN social sciences}, volume = {1}, number = {7}, pages = {174}, pmid = {34693329}, issn = {2662-9283}, abstract = {Since climate change education is an integral element in the increasingly urgent global approach to solving the problem of climate change, understanding perceptions of climate change among teachers in different academic institutions could play a significant role in how and to what extent institutions address the need to educate learners on this subject, specifically, and participate in other climate change mitigation strategies, in general. This study, therefore, examines teachers' perceptions of climate change regarding its significance, causes, consequences, and mitigation, through analysis of a self-administered structured questionnaire completed by 95 teachers from public and private educational institutions in the city of Sylhet in Bangladesh. Results from descriptive and inferential statistical analysis show that public and private school teachers have an understanding of climate change regarding its significance, causes, consequences, and mitigation. The results also reveal that the sociodemographic characteristics of teachers, as well as academic-related factors, influence their perceptions of climate change. This research concludes that teachers in public institutions have a greater awareness and understanding of climate change than those working in private schools. The research findings have broader implications for further research and policy recommendations and, in particular, draw the attention of the Departments of Education and Disaster Management in Bangladesh or in countries with similar contexts to introduce environmental and disaster education and training opportunities for teachers.}, }
@article {pmid34691731, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, F and Sanders, CJ and Santos, IR and Tang, J and Schuerch, M and Kirwan, ML and Kopp, RE and Zhu, K and Li, X and Yuan, J and Liu, W and Li, Z}, title = {Global blue carbon accumulation in tidal wetlands increases with climate change.}, journal = {National science review}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {nwaa296}, pmid = {34691731}, issn = {2053-714X}, abstract = {Coastal tidal wetlands produce and accumulate significant amounts of organic carbon (C) that help to mitigate climate change. However, previous data limitations have prevented a robust evaluation of the global rates and mechanisms driving C accumulation. Here, we go beyond recent soil C stock estimates to reveal global tidal wetland C accumulation and predict changes under relative sea level rise, temperature and precipitation. We use data from literature study sites and our new observations spanning wide latitudinal gradients and 20 countries. Globally, tidal wetlands accumulate 53.65 (95%CI: 48.52-59.01) Tg C yr[-1], which is ∼30% of the organic C buried on the ocean floor. Modeling based on current climatic drivers and under projected emissions scenarios revealed a net increase in the global C accumulation by 2100. This rapid increase is driven by sea level rise in tidal marshes, and higher temperature and precipitation in mangroves. Countries with large areas of coastal wetlands, like Indonesia and Mexico, are more susceptible to tidal wetland C losses under climate change, while regions such as Australia, Brazil, the USA and China will experience a significant C accumulation increase under all projected scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid34691719, year = {2021}, author = {Liu 刘刚, G and Qu 曲久辉, J and van Loosdrecht, M}, title = {'Blue Route' for combating climate change.}, journal = {National science review}, volume = {8}, number = {8}, pages = {nwab099}, pmid = {34691719}, issn = {2053-714X}, abstract = {Today's urban water system can be transformed, without big modifications, into a natural and revolutionary "Blue Route" for combating climate change and constructing carbon neutral city, which will lead to self-sustainability of the water sector and supply energy and resources to other sectors.}, }
@article {pmid34691367, year = {2021}, author = {Chapungu, L and Nhamo, G}, title = {Interfacing vector-borne disease dynamics with climate change: Implications for the attainment of SDGs in Masvingo city, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1175}, pmid = {34691367}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This study used a mixed-methods research design to examine the sensitivity of vector-borne disease (VBD) patterns to the changes in rainfall and temperature trends. The research focused on malaria in Masvingo Province, Zimbabwe. The study interfaced the climate action, health and sustainable cities and communities with sustainable development goals (SDGs). Historical climate and epidemiological data were used to compute the correlations and determine the possible modifications of disease patterns. Clustered random and chain-referral sampling approaches were used to select study sites and respondents. Primary data were gathered through a questionnaire survey (n = 191), interviews and focus group discussions, with Mann-Kendal trend tests performed using XLSTAT 2020. The results show a positive correlation between malaria prevalence rates and temperature-related variables. A decline in precipitation-related variables, specifically mean monthly precipitation (MMP), was associated with an increase in malaria prevalence. These observations were confirmed by the views of the respondents, which show that climate change has a bearing on malaria spatial and temporal dynamics in Masvingo Province. The study concludes that climate change plays a contributory role in VBD dynamics, thereby impeding the attainment of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, especially SDG 3, which deals with health. The study recommends further research into appropriate adaptation mechanisms to increase the resilience of rural and urban communities against the negative transmutations associated with weather and climatic pressures.}, }
@article {pmid34691366, year = {2021}, author = {Nzama, AT}, title = {Tackling climate change through craft development: The case of rural women in uPhongolo Local Municipality.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1140}, pmid = {34691366}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is a global phenomenon that is affecting all humanity. Bearing the harshest brunt of environmental, social and economic shocks are the world's poorest and those in vulnerable conditions such as women in rural areas. Rural areas have experienced a decline in the dependence on agriculture and livestock farming because of climate change, thus forcing people especially women to look for alternative sources of sustainable livelihoods (SLs). The objective of this study was to establish the extent to which craft development can be used as an alternative livelihood by women in uPhongolo Local Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal to mitigate the effects of climate change. This study adopted a SL theoretical framework to explain how women in the study area used craft development to improve their livelihoods. A survey method was adopted for this study using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. Non-probability sampling strategy using a purposive sampling technique was used to select 50 women crafters from uPhongolo Local Municipality. Face-to-face interviews using questionnaires, which had both closed and open-ended questions, were conducted. These allowed for the collection of numeric data and simultaneously allowed respondents to express themselves and elaborate on the structured questions. The Software Programme for Social Science (SPSS) was used to analyse quantitative data that had been generated using structured interviews and categorised qualitative data. The findings indicated that innovative entrepreneurship using natural capital readily available in the area for craft development and linking the products to the market play a significant role in improving SLs of women in the study area. The study recommends that capacity-building programmes be provided to equip rural women with skills that would enhance their ability to respond to natural hazards such as climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34691093, year = {2021}, author = {Ahmed, S and Brinkley, S and Smith, E and Sela, A and Theisen, M and Thibodeau, C and Warne, T and Anderson, E and Van Dusen, N and Giuliano, P and Ionescu, KE and Cash, SB}, title = {Climate Change and Coffee Quality: Systematic Review on the Effects of Environmental and Management Variation on Secondary Metabolites and Sensory Attributes of Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {708013}, pmid = {34691093}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change is impacting crop performance and agricultural systems around the world with implications for farmers and consumers. We carried out a systematic review to synthesize evidence regarding the effects of environmental factors associated with climate change and management conditions associated with climate adaptation on the crop quality of a culturally-relevant perennial crop, coffee (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora). Seventy-three articles were identified that addressed the study's research question including 42 articles on environmental factors, 20 articles on management conditions, and 11 articles on both. While variation was found between studies, findings highlight that coffee quality is vulnerable to changes in light exposure, altitude, water stress, temperature, carbon dioxide, and nutrient management. Both increases as well as decreases were found in secondary metabolites and sensory attributes that determine coffee quality in response to shifts in environmental and management conditions. The most consistent evidence identified through this systematic review includes the following two trends: (1) increased altitude is associated with improved sensory attributes of coffee and; (2) increased light exposure is associated with decreased sensory attributes of coffee. Research gaps were found regarding the effects of shifts in carbon dioxide, water stress, and temperature on the directionality (increase, decrease, or non-linear) of coffee quality and how this varies with location, elevation, and management conditions. This systematic review further identified the following research needs: (1) long-term studies that examine the interactive effects of multiple environmental factors and management conditions on coffee quality; (2) studies that examine the interaction between sensory attributes and secondary metabolites that determine coffee quality and; (3) studies on the feasibility of various climate-adaptation strategies for mitigating the effects of climate change on coffee quality. Evidence-based innovations are needed to mitigate climate impacts on coffee quality toward enhanced sustainability and resilience of the coffee sector from farm to cup.}, }
@article {pmid34690449, year = {2023}, author = {Cowls, J and Tsamados, A and Taddeo, M and Floridi, L}, title = {The AI gambit: leveraging artificial intelligence to combat climate change-opportunities, challenges, and recommendations.}, journal = {AI &amp; society}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {283-307}, pmid = {34690449}, issn = {0951-5666}, abstract = {In this article, we analyse the role that artificial intelligence (AI) could play, and is playing, to combat global climate change. We identify two crucial opportunities that AI offers in this domain: it can help improve and expand current understanding of climate change, and it can contribute to combatting the climate crisis effectively. However, the development of AI also raises two sets of problems when considering climate change: the possible exacerbation of social and ethical challenges already associated with AI, and the contribution to climate change of the greenhouse gases emitted by training data and computation-intensive AI systems. We assess the carbon footprint of AI research, and the factors that influence AI's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in this domain. We find that the carbon footprint of AI research may be significant and highlight the need for more evidence concerning the trade-off between the GHG emissions generated by AI research and the energy and resource efficiency gains that AI can offer. In light of our analysis, we argue that leveraging the opportunities offered by AI for global climate change whilst limiting its risks is a gambit which requires responsive, evidence-based, and effective governance to become a winning strategy. We conclude by identifying the European Union as being especially well-placed to play a leading role in this policy response and provide 13 recommendations that are designed to identify and harness the opportunities of AI for combatting climate change, while reducing its impact on the environment.}, }
@article {pmid34690385, year = {2021}, author = {Schipper, ELF and Dubash, NK and Mulugetta, Y}, title = {Climate change research and the search for solutions: rethinking interdisciplinarity.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {168}, number = {3-4}, pages = {18}, pmid = {34690385}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Growing political pressure to find solutions to climate change is leading to increasing calls for multiple disciplines, in particular those that are not traditionally part of climate change research, to contribute new knowledge systems that can offer deeper and broader insights to address the problem. Recognition of the complexity of climate change compels researchers to draw on interdisciplinary knowledge that marries natural sciences with social sciences and humanities. Yet most interdisciplinary approaches fail to adequately merge the framings of the disparate disciplines, resulting in reductionist messages that are largely devoid of context, and hence provide incomplete and misleading analysis for decision-making. For different knowledge systems to work better together toward climate solutions, we need to reframe the way questions are asked and research pursued, in order to inform action without slipping into reductionism. We suggest that interdisciplinarity needs to be rethought. This will require accepting a plurality of narratives, embracing multiple disciplinary perspectives, and shifting expectations of public messaging, and above all looking to integrate the appropriate disciplines that can help understand human systems in order to better mediate action.}, }
@article {pmid34690100, year = {2022}, author = {Renaudeau, D and Dourmad, JY}, title = {Review: Future consequences of climate change for European Union pig production.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {16 Suppl 2}, number = {}, pages = {100372}, doi = {10.1016/j.animal.2021.100372}, pmid = {34690100}, issn = {1751-732X}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; European Union ; Livestock ; Swine ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already a reality for livestock production. In contrast to the ruminant species, little is known about the impacts and the vulnerability of pig European Union (EU) sector to climate warming. This review deals with the potential and the already measurable effects of climate change in pig production. Based on evidences published in the literature, climate change may reduce EU pig productivity by indirectly reducing the availability of crops usually used in pig feeding, spreading the vector or pathogen to new locations and increasing the risk of exposure to cereals contaminated with mycotoxins; and directly mainly by inducing heat stress and increasing the animal's susceptibility to various diseases. Provision of realistic projections of possible impacts of future climate changes on EU pig sector is a prerequisite to evaluate its vulnerability and propose effective adaptation strategies. Simulation modelling approach is the most commonly used approach for exploring the effects of medium or long-term climate change/variability in pig production. One of the main challenges for this modelling approach is to account for both direct and indirect possible effects but also to uncertainties in parameter values that substantially increase the uncertainty estimates for model projections. The last part of the paper focus on the main issues that still need to be overcome for developing a decision support tools for simulating the direct and indirect effect of climate change in pig farms.}, }
@article {pmid34689746, year = {2021}, author = {Song, K and Gao, B and Halvarsson, P and Fang, Y and Klaus, S and Jiang, YX and Swenson, JE and Sun, YH and Höglund, J}, title = {Demographic history and divergence of sibling grouse species inferred from whole genome sequencing reveal past effects of climate change.}, journal = {BMC ecology and evolution}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {194}, pmid = {34689746}, issn = {2730-7182}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Galliformes/genetics ; Humans ; Population Density ; Whole Genome Sequencing ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The boreal forest is one of the largest biomes on earth, supporting thousands of species. The global climate fluctuations in the Quaternary, especially the ice ages, had a significant influence on the distribution of boreal forest, as well as the divergence and evolution of species inhabiting this biome. To understand the possible effects of on-going and future climate change it would be useful to reconstruct past population size changes and relate such to climatic events in the past. We sequenced the genomes of 32 individuals from two forest inhabiting bird species, Hazel Grouse (Tetrastes bonasia) and Chinese Grouse (T. sewerzowi) and three representatives of two outgroup species from Europe and China.<br><br>RESULTS: We estimated the divergence time of Chinese Grouse and Hazel Grouse to 1.76 (0.46-3.37) MYA. The demographic history of different populations in these two sibling species was reconstructed, and showed that peaks and bottlenecks of effective population size occurred at different times for the two species. The northern Qilian population of Chinese Grouse became separated from the rest of the species residing in the south approximately 250,000&#xa0;years ago and have since then showed consistently lower effective population size than the southern population. The Chinese Hazel Grouse population had a higher effective population size at the peak of the Last Glacial Period (approx. 300,000&#xa0;years ago) than the European population. Both species have decreased recently and now have low effective population sizes.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Combined with the uplift history and reconstructed climate change during the Quaternary, our results support that cold-adapted grouse species diverged in response to changes in the distribution of palaeo-boreal forest and the formation of the Loess Plateau. The combined effects of climate change and an increased human pressure impose major threats to the survival and conservation of both species.}, }
@article {pmid34689389, year = {2022}, author = {Rogers, A and Serbin, SP and Way, DA}, title = {Reducing model uncertainty of climate change impacts on high latitude carbon assimilation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {1222-1247}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15958}, pmid = {34689389}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Carbon ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The Arctic-Boreal Region (ABR) has a large impact on global vegetation-atmosphere interactions and is experiencing markedly greater warming than the rest of the planet, a trend that is projected to continue with anticipated future emissions of CO2 . The ABR is a significant source of uncertainty in estimates of carbon uptake in terrestrial biosphere models such that reducing this uncertainty is critical for more accurately estimating global carbon cycling and understanding the response of the region to global change. Process representation and parameterization associated with gross primary productivity (GPP) drives a large amount of this model uncertainty, particularly within the next 50 years, where the response of existing vegetation to climate change will dominate estimates of GPP for the region. Here we review our current understanding and model representation of GPP in northern latitudes, focusing on vegetation composition, phenology, and physiology, and consider how climate change alters these three components. We highlight challenges in the ABR for predicting GPP, but also focus on the unique opportunities for advancing knowledge and model representation, particularly through the combination of remote sensing and traditional boots-on-the-ground science.}, }
@article {pmid34688774, year = {2021}, author = {Pacheco, SE and Guidos-Fogelbach, G and Annesi-Maesano, I and Pawankar, R and D' Amato, G and Latour-Staffeld, P and Urrutia-Pereira, M and Kesic, MJ and Hernandez, ML and , }, title = {Climate change and global issues in allergy and immunology.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {148}, number = {6}, pages = {1366-1377}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2021.10.011}, pmid = {34688774}, issn = {1097-6825}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; *Allergy and Immunology ; Animals ; Asthma/epidemiology/*immunology ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fossil Fuels ; Global Health ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Gases/adverse effects ; Humans ; Rhinitis, Allergic/epidemiology/*immunology ; }, abstract = {The steady increase in global temperatures, resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels and the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs), continues to destabilize all ecosystems worldwide. Although annual emissions must be halved by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050 to limit some of the most catastrophic impacts associated with a warming planet, the world's efforts to curb GHG emissions fall short of the commitments made in the 2015 Paris Agreement. To this effect, July 2021 was recently declared the hottest month ever recorded in 142 years. The ramifications of these changes for global temperatures are complex and further promote outdoor air pollution, pollen exposure, and extreme weather events. Besides worsening respiratory health, air pollution promotes atopy and susceptibility to infections. The effects of GHGs on pollen affect the frequency and severity of asthma and allergic rhinitis. Changes in temperature, air pollution, and extreme weather events exert adverse multisystemic health effects and disproportionally affect disadvantaged and vulnerable populations. This review article is an update for allergists and immunologists about the health impacts of climate change that are already evident in our daily practices. It is also a call to action and advocacy, including to integrate climate change-related mitigation, education, and adaptation measures to protect our patients and avert further injury to our planet.}, }
@article {pmid34687662, year = {2021}, author = {Romanello, M and McGushin, A and Di Napoli, C and Drummond, P and Hughes, N and Jamart, L and Kennard, H and Lampard, P and Solano Rodriguez, B and Arnell, N and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Belesova, K and Cai, W and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Capstick, S and Chambers, J and Chu, L and Ciampi, L and Dalin, C and Dasandi, N and Dasgupta, S and Davies, M and Dominguez-Salas, P and Dubrow, R and Ebi, KL and Eckelman, M and Ekins, P and Escobar, LE and Georgeson, L and Grace, D and Graham, H and Gunther, SH and Hartinger, S and He, K and Heaviside, C and Hess, J and Hsu, SC and Jankin, S and Jimenez, MP and Kelman, I and Kiesewetter, G and Kinney, PL and Kjellstrom, T and Kniveton, D and Lee, JKW and Lemke, B and Liu, Y and Liu, Z and Lott, M and Lowe, R and Martinez-Urtaza, J and Maslin, M and McAllister, L and McMichael, C and Mi, Z and Milner, J and Minor, K and Mohajeri, N and Moradi-Lakeh, M and Morrissey, K and Munzert, S and Murray, KA and Neville, T and Nilsson, M and Obradovich, N and Sewe, MO and Oreszczyn, T and Otto, M and Owfi, F and Pearman, O and Pencheon, D and Rabbaniha, M and Robinson, E and Rocklöv, J and Salas, RN and Semenza, JC and Sherman, J and Shi, L and Springmann, M and Tabatabaei, M and Taylor, J and Trinanes, J and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Vu, B and Wagner, F and Wilkinson, P and Winning, M and Yglesias, M and Zhang, S and Gong, P and Montgomery, H and Costello, A and Hamilton, I}, title = {The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {398}, number = {10311}, pages = {1619-1662}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01787-6}, pmid = {34687662}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; 205212/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Global Health/trends ; Health Planning ; Humans ; Renewable Energy ; }, }
@article {pmid34685889, year = {2021}, author = {Wen, W and Li, Z and Shao, J and Tang, Y and Zhao, Z and Yang, J and Ding, M and Zhu, X and Zhou, M}, title = {The Distribution and Sustainable Utilization of Buckwheat Resources under Climate Change in China.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {34685889}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2019YFD1001300//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 2019YFD1001303//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 31871536//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 771367//Horizon 2020/ ; }, abstract = {Buckwheat is a promising pseudo cereal and its cultivation history can be traced back to thousands of years ago in China. Nowadays, buckwheat is not only an ordinary crop but also a symbol of healthy life because of its rich nutritional and pharmacological properties. In this research, the current suitable areas of 19 wild buckwheat species were analyzed by the MaxEnt model, which proved that southwestern China was the diversity center of buckwheat. Their morphological characteristics and geographical distribution were analyzed for the first time. In addition, it was found that the change of buckwheat cultivation in three periods might be related to the green revolution of main crops and national policies. Meanwhile, the Sustainable Yield Index (SYI) value of buckwheat in China was the lowest from 1959 to 2016. Through the MaxEnt model, the potentially suitable areas of wild buckwheat would contract while cultivated buckwheat would expand under climate change. Accordingly, the diversity of wild buckwheat will decrease. Therefore, it is necessary to protect buckwheat resources as much as possible to strengthen the development and utilization of buckwheat resources. Moreover, the promotion of buckwheat diversity will be an important trade-off between food security, population growth, and land use under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34682662, year = {2021}, author = {Arpin, E and Gauffin, K and Kerr, M and Hjern, A and Mashford-Pringle, A and Barros, A and Rajmil, L and Choonara, I and Spencer, N}, title = {Climate Change and Child Health Inequality: A Review of Reviews.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {34682662}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; Child Health ; *Climate Change ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Income ; Poverty ; }, abstract = {There is growing evidence on the observed and expected consequences of climate change on population health worldwide. There is limited understanding of its consequences for child health inequalities, between and within countries. To examine these consequences and categorize the state of knowledge in this area, we conducted a review of reviews indexed in five databases (Medline, Embase, Web of Science, PsycInfo, Sociological Abstracts). Reviews that reported the effect of climate change on child health inequalities between low- and high-income children, within or between countries (high- vs low-middle-income countries; HICs and LMICs), were included. Twenty-three reviews, published between 2007 and January 2021, were included for full-text analyses. Using thematic synthesis, we identified strong descriptive, but limited quantitative, evidence that climate change exacerbates child health inequalities. Explanatory mechanisms relating climate change to child health inequalities were proposed in some reviews; for example, children in LMICs are more susceptible to the consequences of climate change than children in HICs due to limited structural and economic resources. Geographic and intergenerational inequalities emerged as additional themes from the review. Further research with an equity focus should address the effects of climate change on adolescents/youth, mental health and inequalities within countries.}, }
@article {pmid34682517, year = {2021}, author = {Faisal, M and Abbas, A and Cai, Y and Ali, A and Shahzad, MA and Akhtar, S and Haseeb Raza, M and Ajmal, MA and Xia, C and Sattar, SA and Batool, Z}, title = {Perceptions, Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Mitigating Climate Change Effects among Small Livestock Herders in Punjab, Pakistan.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {34682517}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Livestock ; Pakistan ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Pakistan is an agrarian nation that is among the most vulnerable countries to climatic variations. Around 20% of its GDP is produced by agriculture, and livestock-related production contributes more than half of this value. However, few empirical studies have been conducted to determine the vulnerability and knowledge of livestock herders, and particularly the smaller herders. Comprehending individual perceptions of and vulnerabilities to climate change (CC) will enable effective formulation of CC mitigation strategies. This study intended to explore individual perceptions of and vulnerabilities to CC based on a primary dataset of 405 small livestock herders from three agro-ecological zones of Punjab. The results showed that livestock herders' perceptions about temperature and rainfall variations/patterns coincide with the meteorological information of the study locations. The vulnerability indicators show that Dera Ghazi Khan district is more vulnerable than the other two zones because of high exposure and sensitivity to CC, and lower adaptive capacity. However, all zones experience regular livelihood risks due to livestock diseases and deaths resulting from extreme climatic conditions, lower economic status, and constrained institutional and human resource capabilities, thus leading to increased vulnerability. The results indicate that low-cost local approaches are needed, such as provision of improved veterinary services, increased availability of basic equipment, small-scale infrastructure projects, and reinforcement of informal social safety nets. These measures would support cost-effective and sustainable decisions to enable subsistence livestock herders to adopt climate smart practices.}, }
@article {pmid34682350, year = {2021}, author = {Alhothali, GT and Almoraie, NM and Shatwan, IM and Aljefree, NM}, title = {Sociodemographic Characteristics and Dietary Choices as Determinants of Climate Change Understanding and Concern in Saudi Arabia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {34682350}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Diet ; Humans ; Male ; Saudi Arabia ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a global threat to public health. This study investigated the understanding of, and concern over, climate change in Saudi Arabia and examined the associations with sociodemographic characteristics and dietary choices. This cross-sectional study consisted of 280 participants recruited via an online survey. Of the study participants, 45% demonstrated a sufficient understanding of climate change, and 56% were highly concerned about climate change. Male sex, medium-high monthly income, high education, and governmental employees were determinants of sufficient understanding of and great concern over climate change. Participants who exhibited a high understanding of climate change score demonstrated significantly higher consumption of vegetables (3.47 ± 0.98) and vegetable oils (3.26 ± 1.07) than participants with a low understanding score (3.31 ± 0.96 and 3.00 ± 1.01, respectively) (p ≤ 0.01). Additionally, participants with higher concern of climate change scores exhibited lower consumption of red meat (p = 0.0001), poultry (p = 0.003), margarine (p = 0.02), and soy products (p = 0.04). The study revealed a poor understanding of, but great concern over, climate change. The intake of non-climate-friendly food was typically higher than that of climate-friendly food. These findings are critical for developing strategies to enhance awareness of climate change and encourage people to consume climate-friendly food to mitigate climate change and improve public health.}, }
@article {pmid34681390, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, W and Chen, Y and He, X and Mao, P and Tian, H}, title = {Is Current Research on How Climate Change Impacts Global Food Security Really Objective?.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {34681390}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {XAB2018b02, SHLY-2018-1//Western Light Talent Culture Project B, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Shaanxi Province Talents Special Support Plan, Shaanxi Province/ ; 42041005//The National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Global food insecurity is becoming more severe under the threat of rising global carbon dioxide concentrations, increasing population, and shrinking farmlands and their degeneration. We acquired the ISI Web of Science platform for over 31 years (1988-2018) to review the research on how climate change impacts global food security, and then performed cluster analysis and research hotspot analysis with VosViewer software. We found there were two drawbacks that exist in the current research. Firstly, current field research data were defective because they were collected from various facilities and were hard to integrate. The other drawback is the representativeness of field research site selection as most studies were carried out in developed countries and very few in developing countries. Therefore, more attention should be paid to developing countries, especially some African and Asian countries. At the same time, new modified mathematical models should be utilized to process and integrate the data from various facilities and regions. Finally, we suggested that governments and organizations across the world should be united to wrestle with the impact of climate change on food security.}, }
@article {pmid34681097, year = {2021}, author = {Li, C and Gao, Y and Chang, N and Ma, D and Zhou, R and Zhao, Z and Wang, J and Zhang, Q and Liu, Q}, title = {Risk Assessment of Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes (Diptera: Culicidae) Invading China under Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {34681097}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2020YFC1200101//Qiyong Liu/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes are morphologically similar and are considered to be effective vectors of malaria transmission in northeastern India. Environmental factors such as temperature and rainfall have a significant impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of disease vectors driven by future climate change.<br><br>METHODS: In this study, we used the maximum entropy model to predict the potential global distribution of the two mosquito species in the near future and the trend of future distribution in China. Based on the contribution rate of environmental factors, we analyzed the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of the two mosquito species. We also constructed a disease vector risk assessment index system to calculate the comprehensive risk value of the invasive species.<br><br>RESULTS: Precipitation has a significant effect on the distribution of potentially suitable areas for Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes. The two mosquito species may spread in the suitable areas of China in the future. The results of the risk assessment index system showed that the two mosquito species belong to the moderate invasion risk level for China.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: China should improve the mosquito vector monitoring system, formulate scientific prevention and control strategies and strictly prevent foreign imports.}, }
@article {pmid34680709, year = {2021}, author = {Ajayi, OS and Samuel-Foo, M}, title = {Hemp Pest Spectrum and Potential Relationship between Helicoverpa zea Infestation and Hemp Production in the United States in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {34680709}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {There has been a resurgence in the cultivation of industrial hemp, Cannabis sativa L., in the United States since its recent legalization. This may facilitate increased populations of arthropods associated with the plant. Hemp pests target highly marketable parts of the plant, such as flowers, stalks, and leaves, which ultimately results in a decline in the quality. Industrial hemp can be used for several purposes including production of fiber, grain, and cannabidiol. Thus, proper management of pests is essential to achieve a substantial yield of hemp in the face of climate change. In this review, we provide updates on various arthropods associated with industrial hemp in the United States and examine the potential impact of climate change on corn earworm (CEW) Helicoverpa zea Boddie, a major hemp pest. For example, temperature and photoperiod affect the development and diapause process in CEW. Additionally, drought can lead to a reduction in hemp growth. Host plant diversity of CEW may prevent populations of the pest from reaching outbreak levels. It is suggested that hemp varieties resistant to drought, high soil salinity, cold, heat, humidity, and common pests and diseases should be selected. Ongoing research on effective management of CEW in hemp is critical.}, }
@article {pmid34679854, year = {2021}, author = {Passamonti, MM and Somenzi, E and Barbato, M and Chillemi, G and Colli, L and Joost, S and Milanesi, M and Negrini, R and Santini, M and Vajana, E and Williams, JL and Ajmone-Marsan, P}, title = {The Quest for Genes Involved in Adaptation to Climate Change in Ruminant Livestock.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {34679854}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {INEA/CEF/ICT/A2018/1815462//Connecting European Facility (CEF) Telecommunications/ ; INEA/CEF/ICT/A2020/2373580//Connecting European Facility (CEF) Telecommunications/ ; 677353//European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme/ ; 2012//European Union's Horizon 2020 Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area Programme (PRIMA/ ; Project "Landscape 4.0 - food, wellbeing and environment"//Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research/ ; Livestock Environment Opendata, 16.2 - PSRN 2014-2020//Fondo Europeo Agricolo per lo Sviluppo Rurale (FEASR)./ ; }, abstract = {Livestock radiated out from domestication centres to most regions of the world, gradually adapting to diverse environments, from very hot to sub-zero temperatures and from wet and humid conditions to deserts. The climate is changing; generally global temperature is increasing, although there are also more extreme cold periods, storms, and higher solar radiation. These changes impact livestock welfare and productivity. This review describes advances in the methodology for studying livestock genomes and the impact of the environment on animal production, giving examples of discoveries made. Sequencing livestock genomes has facilitated genome-wide association studies to localize genes controlling many traits, and population genetics has identified genomic regions under selection or introgressed from one breed into another to improve production or facilitate adaptation. Landscape genomics, which combines global positioning and genomics, has identified genomic features that enable animals to adapt to local environments. Combining the advances in genomics and methods for predicting changes in climate is generating an explosion of data which calls for innovations in the way big data sets are treated. Artificial intelligence and machine learning are now being used to study the interactions between the genome and the environment to identify historic effects on the genome and to model future scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid34679193, year = {2022}, author = {Layton, KKS and Bradbury, IR}, title = {Harnessing the power of multi-omics data for predicting climate change response.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {6}, pages = {1064-1072}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13619}, pmid = {34679193}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Genomics ; }, abstract = {Predicting how species will respond to future climate change is of central importance in the midst of the global biodiversity crisis, and recent work has demonstrated the utility of population genomics for improving these predictions. Here, we suggest a broadening of the approach to include other types of genomic variants that play an important role in adaptation, like structural (e.g. copy number variants) and epigenetic variants (e.g. DNA methylation). These data could provide additional power for forecasting response, especially in weakly structured or panmictic species. Incorporating structural and epigenetic variation into estimates of climate change vulnerability, or maladaptation, may not only improve prediction power but also provide insight into the molecular mechanisms underpinning species' response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34679129, year = {2021}, author = {Ferreira, MR and Almeida, AM and Quintela-Sabarís, C and Roque, N and Fernandez, P and Ribeiro, MM}, title = {The role of littoral cliffs in the niche delimitation on a microendemic plant facing climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {e0258976}, pmid = {34679129}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Cistus ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Portugal ; }, abstract = {Obligate coastline taxa generally occupy very limited areas, especially when there is a close affinity with a specific coast type. Climate change can be a meaningful threat for them, reducing suitable habitat or forcing migration events. Cistus ladanifer subsp. sulcatus is an endemic plant of Portugal, known to occur only in the top of its south-western coast's prominent cliffs. In spite of being included in the annexes II and IV of the European Habitats Directive of Natura 2000 Network, this taxon is still understudied, especially regarding the effects of climate change on its distribution. To overcome such gap, Maxent was used to model the current distribution of C. ladanifer subsp. sulcatus and project its future distribution considering different General Circulation Models, periods (2050 and 2070) and Representation Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5). The results suggested an extensive range contraction in the future, and extinction is a possible scenario. The proximity to littoral cliffs is crucial for this plant's occurrence, but these formations are irregularly distributed along the coast, hindering range expansions, further inhibited by a small dispersal capacity. Cistus ladanifer subsp. sulcatus will probably remain confined to south-western Portugal in the future, where it will continue to face relevant threats like human activity, reinforcing the need for its conservation.}, }
@article {pmid34676735, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, YF and Wang, YL and Huang, R and Liang, EY}, title = {[Effects of biotic interactions on ecological processes of treeline ecotone under climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {10}, pages = {3724-3732}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202110.006}, pmid = {34676735}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Treeline ecotone is an alpine ecological transition zone characterized by strong biotic interactions, which are closely related to treeline ecological processes. Herein, we reviewed the research progress regarding the impacts of plant-plant, plant-animal, and plant-microbe interactions on the ecological processes of treeline ecotone under climate change. Both facilitation and competition among individual plants are important factors mediating dynamics of treeline processes under climate change. However, there is a dearth of dendroecological evidence. Impacts of higher-order interactions on the ecological processes of treeline ecotone remain to be tested. Herbivory and microbe-plant interactions could enhance or reduce the couplings of treeline and climate through affecting soil conditions or altering dynamics of ecological processes such as tree growth and recruitment. How the linkages between aboveground and belowground processes affect treeline responses to climate change remain unclear. In addition, biotic interactions across trophic levels might regulate the responses of ecological processes of treeline ecotone to climate change. Tibetan Plateau provides an excellent opportunity to explore the effects of biotic interactions on the changes of ecological process of treeline ecotone.}, }
@article {pmid34676734, year = {2021}, author = {Bai, YY and Han, YJ and Wang, KK and Liu, B}, title = {[Growth response of coniferous trees to climate change in the Qinling Mountains, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {10}, pages = {3715-3723}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202110.013}, pmid = {34676734}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Forests ; *Tracheophyta ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {As an important geographical boundary, the subalpine coniferous forests in the Qinling Mountains have critical effects on water conservation, biodiversity conservation and climate regulation at the regional and even larger scale. In recent decades, temperature significantly increased in the Qinling Mountains, with significant spatial heterogeneity. An understanding of the responses of the Qinling coniferous trees to climate change is important for the protection and management of mountain forests under climate change. In this study, we synthesized the relationships between the radial growth of coniferous trees and climate at different altitudes in the western, central, and eas-tern Qinling Mountains. The effects of climate change on coniferous trees were investigated from the aspects of radial growth, NDVI, phenology, and species distribution range. Furthermore, know-ledge gaps in the responses of tree growth to climate change and possible future directions in this field were discussed.}, }
@article {pmid34676716, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, JM and Fan, ZX and Fu, PL and Shankar, P and Tang, H}, title = {[Radial growth responses of four coniferous species to climate change in the Potatso National Park, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {10}, pages = {3548-3556}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202110.033}, pmid = {34676716}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Parks, Recreational ; *Tracheophyta ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Using the principles and methods of dendrochronology, we measured tree-ring width of four dominant coniferous species, i.e., Larix potaninii var. macrocarpa, Picea brachytyla, Pinus densata, and Abies georgei, in the Potatso National Park, and established the tree-ring width resi-dual chronologies. We analyzed the correlation of tree-ring width residual chronologies with daily and monthly climate data from the Shangrila meteorological station to analyze the response of radial growth to climate factors. The results showed that L. potaninii var. macrocarpa had the highest annual growth rate, and A. georgei had the lowest. Radial growth showed species-specific responses to climate changes, with the highest sensitivity of L. potaninii var. macrocarpa and the lowest sensitivity of P. brachytyla. Ring-width chronology of A. georgei correlated positively with mean temperature during previous winter (November and December) and current summer (July). Ring-width chronology of L. potaninii var. macrocarpa correlated positively with temperature during the early-growing season (June), but negatively with precipitation and relative humidity. Ring-width chronology of P. densata correlated positively with precipitation and humidity but negatively with maximum temperature during the early-growing season (May), indicating that its radial growth was primarily influenced by water availability during the early-growing season.}, }
@article {pmid34676715, year = {2021}, author = {Li, YJ and Fang, KY and Bai, MW and Cao, XG and Dong, ZP and Tang, WR and Mei, ZP}, title = {[Ecological resilience of ancient Pinus massoniana trees to climate change and insect infestation in southeastern Fujian, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {10}, pages = {3539-3547}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202110.010}, pmid = {34676715}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Insecta ; *Pinus ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Pinus massoniana is a typical pioneer afforestation tree species widely distributed in southern China. It is crucial to study the ecological resilience of P. massoniana to disturbances under global warming, drying, and frequent pest infestation, which can shed lights on forest mana-gements. In this study, tree-ring samples collected from old-growth P. massoniana trees in Baisong Village, Xianyou County, Fujian Province, were used to develop the first standard chronology of P. massoniana ring width (1865-2014) in this region. The results showed that the low relative humidity from July to September and the extremely high temperature from May to September were the main limiting factors for tree growth. The extremely narrow years were identified in 1869, 1889, 1986, 1991 and 1993. These extremely narrow years were exacerbated after the persistently low values of the previously two years via the superposed epoch analysis (SEA). The insect infestations were more likely to happen in dry years. Insect outbreak exerted strongest effect on tree growth in 1889. The narrow tree-rings in 1986 and 1991 were affected by both insect infestation and drought. The other extremely narrow years were mainly affected by drought. The resistance of trees to insect infestation was weaker than that to drought event. The relative resilience of trees to insect infestation was higher than that to drought event, except for 1991. The relative resilience was the highest in 1889 and the lowest in 1991 under the influence of successive extreme events. Under the enhanced drying trend since 2000, more trees had died possibly due to the combined effects of insect infestation and drought.}, }
@article {pmid34676702, year = {2021}, author = {Yang, JW and Zhang, QL and Song, WQ and Zhang, X and Li, ZS and Zhang, YD and Wang, XC}, title = {[Response differences of radial growth of Larix gmelinii and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica to climate change in Daxing'an Mountains, Northeast China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {10}, pages = {3415-3427}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202110.005}, pmid = {34676702}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; *Larix ; *Pinus sylvestris ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Daxing'an Mountains is one of regions in China with the most significant climate change. Larix gmelinii and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica are the most important species in this area. The study of their radial growth response to climate change would provide a scientific basis for predicting the dynamics of boreal forests under climate change. A total of 451 tree-ring cores of L. gmelinii and P. sylvestris var. mongolica were collected from six sites in the Daxing'an region, and 12 standard chronologies were established. We compared the tree growth trend since 1900, and analyzed their response to the climate factor in each site using Pearson correlation analysis. Effects of temperature and precipitation on the annual radial growth of L. gmelinii and P. sylvestris var. mongolica were investigated by linear mixed models. The time stability of the relationship between two species growth-climate was compared by moving correlation. The results showed that the radial growth of L. gmelinii was negatively correlated with mean temperature in March and positively correlated with precipitation in the previous winter and July of current year. The radial growth of P. sylvestris var. mongolica was positively correlated with temperature in August and precipitation in the growing season (from May to September) of current year. Snow in winter played an important role in promoting the radial growth of L. gmelinii, whereas precipitation in summer limited the radial growth of P. sylvestris var. mongolica. The responses of L. gmelinii and P. sylvestris var. mongolica to climate change were significantly different, which affected tree growth, species composition, and spatial distribution in the boreal forests.}, }
@article {pmid34676701, year = {2021}, author = {Guo, XM and Wang, ZP and Zhang, N and Zhang, DY}, title = {[Responses of radial growth of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica and Larix gmelinii to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {10}, pages = {3405-3414}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202110.042}, pmid = {34676701}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Larix ; *Pinus ; *Pinus sylvestris ; Trees ; }, abstract = {In the context of global warming, the increases of temperature may affect tree growth and thus disturb ecosystem balance. In this study, we explored the main limiting factors for radial growth of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica and Larix gmelinii in the Mohe area of Greater Khingan Mountains by using growth-climate response function analysis and moving correlation analysis, as well as the interspecific difference of the responses of radial growth to rapid warming. The results showed that the radial growth of P. sylvestris var. mongolica and L. gmelinii was affected by both temperature and precipitation. P. sylvestris var. mongolica was more sensitive to climate change than L. gmelinii, and its sensitivity to climate factors was more stable than L. gmelinii. The radial growth of P. sylvestris var. mongolica was significantly positively correlated with the monthly mean temperature and the monthly mean minimum temperature of the growing season, while that of L. gmelinii was significantly positively correlated with the monthly mean temperature and the monthly mean maximum temperature of winter. Precipitation in winter promoted the growth of P. sylvestris var. mongolica, whereas precipitation in the late growing season of the previous year inhibited the radial growth of L. gmelinii. After the rapid warming in 1990, the limiting effect of precipitation on P. sylvestris var. mongolica changed from negative to significantly positive, with the inhibition effect of high temperature being greater than the promotion effect. The inhibitory effect of high temperature on L. gmelinii was enhanced, and the limiting effect of precipitation on L. gmelinii was also enhanced after heating up. The growth rate decreased significantly, with obvious difference being observed in the correlations between the growth rate of two species with temperature and precipitation. Our results could provide scientific basis for forest ecosystem management and protection in Greater Khingan Mountains.}, }
@article {pmid34676141, year = {2021}, author = {Williams, T and Wilson, C and Wynn, P and Costa, D}, title = {Opportunities for precision livestock management in the face of climate change: a focus on extensive systems.}, journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {63-68}, pmid = {34676141}, issn = {2160-6064}, }
@article {pmid34676137, year = {2021}, author = {Cullen, BR and Ayre, M and Reichelt, N and Nettle, RA and Hayman, G and Armstrong, DP and Beilin, R and Harrison, MT}, title = {Climate change adaptation for livestock production in southern Australia: transdisciplinary approaches for integrated solutions.}, journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {30-39}, pmid = {34676137}, issn = {2160-6064}, }
@article {pmid34674128, year = {2022}, author = {Saeed, M and Maqbool, A and Ashraf, MA and Arshad, M and Mehmood, K and Usman, M and Farid, MA}, title = {Competency of groundwater recharge of irrigated cotton field subjacent to sowing methods, plastic mulch, water productivity, and yield under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {17757-17771}, pmid = {34674128}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Groundwater ; Plastics ; Water ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Irrigated agriculture is a foremost consumer of water resources to fulfill the demand for food and fiber with an increasing population under climate changes; cotton is no exception. Depleting groundwater recharge and water productivity is critical for the sustainable cotton crop yield peculiarly in the semiarid region. This study investigated the water productivity and cotton yield under six different treatments: three sowing methods, i.e., flat, ridge, and bed planting with and without plastic mulch. Cotton bed planting without mulch showed maximum water productivity (0.24 kg.m[-3]) and the highest cotton yield (1946 kg.ha[-1]). Plastic mulching may reduce water productivity and cotton yield. HYDRUS-1D unsaturated flow model was used to access the groundwater recharge for 150 days under six treatments after model performance evaluation. Maximum cumulative recharge was observed 71 cm for the flat sowing method without plastic mulch. CanESM2 was used to predict climate scenarios for RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 for the 2050s and 2080s by statistical downscale modeling (SDSM) using historical data from 1975 to 2005 to access future groundwater recharge flux. Average cumulative recharge flux declined 36.53% in 2050 and 22.91% in 2080 compared to 2017 without plastic mulch. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that a maximum 23.78% reduction in groundwater recharge could influence future climate change. Further study may require to understand the remaining influencing factor of depleting groundwater recharge. Findings highlight the significance of climate change and the cotton sowing method while accessing future groundwater resources in irrigated agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid34673797, year = {2021}, author = {Chen, M and Atiqul Haq, SM and Ahmed, KJ and Hussain, AHMB and Ahmed, MNQ}, title = {The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {e0258196}, pmid = {34673797}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; *Fertility ; *Food Security ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Statistics as Topic ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect-via crop production-on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect-via infant mortality-on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors.}, }
@article {pmid34673068, year = {2022}, author = {Hagenbo, A and Antón-Fernández, C and Bright, RM and Rasse, D and Astrup, R}, title = {Climate change mitigation potential of biochar from forestry residues under boreal condition.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {807}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {151044}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151044}, pmid = {34673068}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Charcoal ; *Climate Change ; *Forestry ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Forest harvest residue is a low-competitive biomass feedstock that is usually left to decay on site after forestry operations. Its removal and pyrolytic conversion to biochar is seen as an opportunity to reduce terrestrial CO2 emissions and mitigate climate change. The mitigation effect of biochar is, however, ultimately dependent on the availability of the biomass feedstock, thus CO2 removal of biochar needs to be assessed in relation to the capacity to supply biochar systems with biomass feedstocks over prolonged time scales, relevant for climate mitigation. In the present study we used an assembly of empirical models to forecast the effects of harvest residue removal on soil C storage and the technical capacity of biochar to mitigate national-scale emissions over the century, using Norway as a case study for boreal conditions. We estimate the mitigation potential to vary between 0.41 and 0.78 Tg CO2 equivalents yr[-1], of which 79% could be attributed to increased soil C stock, and 21% to the coproduction of bioenergy. These values correspond to 9-17% of the emissions of the Norwegian agricultural sector and to 0.8-1.5% of the total national emission. This illustrates that deployment of biochar from forest harvest residues in countries with a large forestry sector, relative to economy and population size, is likely to have a relatively small contribution to national emission reduction targets but may have a large effect on agricultural emission and commitments. Strategies for biochar deployment need to consider that biochar's mitigation effect is limited by the feedstock supply which needs to be critically assessed.}, }
@article {pmid34671020, year = {2021}, author = {Bonnet, R and Swingedouw, D and Gastineau, G and Boucher, O and Deshayes, J and Hourdin, F and Mignot, J and Servonnat, J and Sima, A}, title = {Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {6108}, pmid = {34671020}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Some of the new generation CMIP6 models are characterised by a strong temperature increase in response to increasing greenhouse gases concentration[1]. At first glance, these models seem less consistent with the temperature warming observed over the last decades. Here, we investigate this issue through the prism of low-frequency internal variability by comparing with observations an ensemble of 32 historical simulations performed with the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, characterized by a rather large climate sensitivity. We show that members with the smallest rates of global warming over the past 6-7 decades are also those with a large internally-driven weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This subset of members also matches several AMOC observational fingerprints, which are in line with such a weakening. This suggests that internal variability from the Atlantic Ocean may have dampened the magnitude of global warming over the historical era. Taking into account this AMOC weakening over the past decades means that it will be harder to avoid crossing the 2 °C warming threshold.}, }
@article {pmid34670328, year = {2021}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Zhang, Y and McGushin, A and Trueck, S and Linnenluecke, MK and Bambrick, H and Berry, HL and Jay, O and Rychetnik, L and Hanigan, IC and Morgan, GG and Guo, Y and Malik, A and Stevenson, M and Green, D and Johnston, FH and McMichael, C and Hamilton, I and Capon, AG}, title = {The 2021 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australia increasingly out on a limb.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {215}, number = {9}, pages = {390-392.e22}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.51302}, pmid = {34670328}, issn = {1326-5377}, support = {80NSSC21K0507/NASA/NASA/United States ; //NHMRC/ ; }, mesh = {Australia ; COVID-19/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Disasters ; Pandemics/prevention &amp; control ; Policy ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017, and produced its first national assessment in 2018, its first annual update in 2019, and its second annual update in 2020. It examines indicators across five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. Our special report in 2020 focused on the unprecedented and catastrophic 2019-20 Australian bushfire season, highlighting indicators that explore the relationships between health, climate change and bushfires. For 2021, we return to reporting on the full suite of indicators across each of the five domains and have added some new indicators. We find that Australians are increasingly exposed to and vulnerable to excess heat and that this is already limiting our way of life, increasing the risk of heat stress during outdoor sports, and decreasing work productivity across a range of sectors. Other weather extremes are also on the rise, resulting in escalating social, economic and health impacts. Climate change disproportionately threatens Indigenous Australians' wellbeing in multiple and complex ways. In response to these threats, we find positive action at the individual, local, state and territory levels, with growing uptake of rooftop solar and electric vehicles, and the beginnings of appropriate adaptation planning. However, this is severely undermined by national policies and actions that are contrary and increasingly place Australia out on a limb. Australia has responded well to the COVID-19 public health crisis (while still emerging from the bushfire crisis that preceded it) and it now needs to respond to and prepare for the health crises resulting from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34670261, year = {2021}, author = {Brodie, N and Silberholz, EA}, title = {Progress in understanding climate change's effects on children and youth.}, journal = {Current opinion in pediatrics}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {684-690}, doi = {10.1097/MOP.0000000000001078}, pmid = {34670261}, issn = {1531-698X}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Pregnancy ; Weather ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change remains a major threat to the health and well-being of children globally. This article reviews the myriad health effects of climate change on children throughout their lives and discusses ways in which the general pediatrician can be an advocate for climate solutions.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Rising atmospheric temperatures, increased air pollution, and destabilized weather patterns all lead to adverse health outcomes for children and adverse obstetric outcomes. However, the impact of climate change is not evenly distributed. Children living in poverty are more likely to be adversely impacted by the changing climate.<br><br>SUMMARY: Ongoing and emerging research suggests that children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The primary care pediatrician is encouraged to see this irrefutable evidence as a call to action for advocacy on behalf of our patients and the planet.}, }
@article {pmid34669170, year = {2022}, author = {Vercillo, S and Huggins, C and Cochrane, L}, title = {How is gender investigated in African climate change research? A systematic review of the literature.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {51}, number = {4}, pages = {1045-1062}, pmid = {34669170}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Africa ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Gender Role ; Humans ; Male ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {This systematic review analyzes all 260 studies published in the Web of Science on gender and climate change in Africa. While there is no strong methodological bias, comparative case studies and sex disaggregated analyses predominate from a limited set of countries. Many articles covered the agrarian sector by comparing women's and men's on-farm vulnerability to a changing climate based on their adaptation behaviours. Though this literature recognizes women's important conservation, farming, and food responsibilities, it oftentimes generalized these contributions without providing evidence. A number of themes were covered by a very limited number of articles, including coastal areas, conflict, education, energy, migration, urban areas, and water. Overall, more justice-oriented research is needed into the socioeconomic structures that intersect with social identities to make certain people, places, and institutions more vulnerable. Investigations into the power dynamics between (social) scientists and African institutions are also needed as most articles reviewed stem from North America and Europe and are locked beyond paywalls.}, }
@article {pmid34667231, year = {2021}, author = {Chimienti, G and De Padova, D and Adamo, M and Mossa, M and Bottalico, A and Lisco, A and Ungaro, N and Mastrototaro, F}, title = {Effects of global warming on Mediterranean coral forests.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {20703}, pmid = {34667231}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Global Warming ; Mediterranean Sea ; }, abstract = {The effects of global warming have been addressed on coral reefs in tropical areas, while it is still unclear how coral forests are reacting, particularly at temperate latitudes. Here we show how mesophotic coral forests are affected by global warming in the Mediterranean Sea. We highlight how the current warming trend is causing the lowering of the thermocline and it is enhancing mucilaginous blooms. These stressors are facilitating a massive macroalgal epibiosis on living corals, here reported for the first time from different areas in the Western and Central Mediterranean Sea. We provide a focus of this phenomenon at Tremiti Islands Marine Protected Area (Adriatic Sea), were the density of the endemic red gorgonian Paramuricea clavata decreased of up to 47% in 5 years, while up to the 96% of the living corals showed signs of stress and macroalgal epibiosis. Only populations deeper than 60 m depth were not touched by this emerging phenomenon. Spot observations performed at Tuscan Archipelago and Tavolara Marine Protected Area (Tyrrhenian Sea) suggest that this this combination of stressors is likely widespread at basin scale.}, }
@article {pmid34666093, year = {2022}, author = {Lee, JG and Chae, HG and Kim, GW and Kim, PJ and Cho, SR}, title = {Cover cropping and its biomass incorporation: Not enough to compensate the negative impact of plastic film mulching on global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {807}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {151015}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151015}, pmid = {34666093}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Global Warming ; *Plastics ; }, abstract = {Plastic film mulching (FM) became a general practice to enhance crop productivity and its net primary production (NPP), but it can increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The proper addition of organic amendments might effectively decrease the impact of FM on global warming. To evaluate the feasibility of biomass addition on decreasing this negative influence, cover crop biomass as a green manure was incorporated with different recycling levels (0-100% of aboveground biomass) under FM and no-mulching. The net global warming potential (GWP) which integrated with soil C stock change and GHG (N2O and CH4) fluxes with CO2-equivalent was evaluated during maize cultivation. Under the same biomass incorporation, FM significantly enhanced the grain productivity and NPP of maize by 22-61 and 18-58% over no-mulching, respectively. In contrast, FM also highly increased the respired C loss, which was 11-95% higher than NPP increase, over no-mulching. Irrespective with biomass recycling ratio and mulching system, negative NECB which indicates the decrease of soil C stock was observed, mainly due to big harvest removal. FM decreased more soil C stock by 57-158% over no-mulching, but its C stock was clearly increased with increasing biomass addition. FM significantly increased total N2O and CH4 fluxes by 4-61 and 140-600% over no-mulching, respectively. Soil C stock changes mainly decided net GWP scale, but N2O and CH4 fluxes negligibly influenced. As a result, FM highly increased net GWP over no-mulching, while this net GWP was clearly decreased with increasing biomass application. However, cover cropping, and its biomass recycling was not enough to compensate the negative impact of FM on global warming. Therefore, more biomass incorporation might be essential to compensate this negative effect of FM.}, }
@article {pmid34664119, year = {2021}, author = {Ferreira, RB and Parreira, MR and Nabout, JC}, title = {The impact of global climate change on the number and replacement of provisioning ecosystem services of Brazilian Cerrado plants.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {11}, pages = {731}, pmid = {34664119}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Plants ; }, abstract = {It is essential to predict areas of losses or exchanges of ecosystem services to adapt communities to the impacts caused by climate change. Particularly for provisioning ecosystem services provided by economically important plant species, understanding the association between climate change impacts and deforestation of native vegetation increases the accuracy of those predictions. Thus, we aim to (i) map the richness of provisioning ecosystem services from economically important native plants; (ii) use forecasts (present and future) of the distribution of ecosystem services to assess areas of changes in the number and type of provisioning ecosystems services. We evaluated provisioning ecosystem services from 110 Cerrado native species of economic importance for the local population. We determined the potential distribution of these plants using ecological niche modeling techniques, which were grouped according to the 21 different services provided. The forecasts for variation in richness and type of service used four future climate change scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in 2050 and 2070). The service losses detected in our models were associated with variables representing the progress of native vegetation deforestation in the biome due to agricultural expansion. Currently, ecosystem services can be found simultaneously in practically the entire biome. However, changes in the global climate will impact the potential geographic distribution of those plants, causing many areas in the biome to have reduced availability of potential ecosystem services. Moreover, due to the association between exposure to climate change and deforestation of native vegetation, the northern region of the biome will likely have the distribution of ecosystem services severely affected.}, }
@article {pmid34664039, year = {2021}, author = {Semenza, JC and Paz, S}, title = {Climate change and infectious disease in Europe: Impact, projection and adaptation.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Europe}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {100230}, pmid = {34664039}, issn = {2666-7762}, abstract = {Europeans are not only exposed to direct effects from climate change, but also vulnerable to indirect effects from infectious disease, many of which are climate sensitive, which is of concern because of their epidemic potential. Climatic conditions have facilitated vector-borne disease outbreaks like chikungunya, dengue, and West Nile fever and have contributed to a geographic range expansion of tick vectors that transmit Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. Extreme precipitation events have caused waterborne outbreaks and longer summer seasons have contributed to increases in foodborne diseases. Under the Green Deal, The European Union aims to support climate change health policy, in order to be better prepared for the next health security threat, particularly in the aftermath of the traumatic COVID-19 experience. To bolster this policy process we discuss climate change-related hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities to infectious disease and describe observed impacts, projected risks, with policy entry points for adaptation to reduce these risks or avoid them altogether.}, }
@article {pmid34663670, year = {2021}, author = {Logie, CH and Toccalino, D and Reed, AC and Malama, K and Newman, PA and Weiser, S and Harris, O and Berry, I and Adedimeji, A}, title = {Exploring linkages between climate change and sexual health: a scoping review protocol.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {e054720}, pmid = {34663670}, issn = {2044-6055}, support = {P30 MH062246/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *HIV Infections/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Review Literature as Topic ; Sexual Behavior ; *Sexual Health ; *Sexually Transmitted Diseases/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The effects of climate change and associated extreme weather events (EWEs) present substantial threats to well-being. EWEs hold the potential to harm sexual health through pathways including elevated exposure to HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), disrupted healthcare access, and increased sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV). The WHO defines four components of sexual health: comprehensive sexuality education; HIV and STI prevention and care; SGBV prevention and care; and psychosexual counselling. Yet, knowledge gaps remain regarding climate change and its associations with these sexual health domains. This scoping review will therefore explore the linkages between climate change and sexual health.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Five electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Web of Science, CINAHL) will be searched using text words and subject headings (eg, Medical Subject Headings (MeSH), Emtree) related to sexual health and climate change from the inception of each database to May 2021. Grey literature and unpublished reports will be searched using a comprehensive search strategy, including from the WHO, World Bank eLibrary, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The scoping review will consider studies that explore: (a) climate change and EWEs including droughts, heat waves, wildfires, dust storms, hurricanes, flooding rains, coastal flooding and storm surges; alongside (b) sexual health, including: comprehensive sexual health education, sexual health counselling, and HIV/STI acquisition, prevention and/or care, and/or SGBV, including intimate partner violence, sexual assault and rape. Searches will not be limited by language, publication year or geographical location. We will consider quantitative, qualitative, mixed-methods and review articles for inclusion. We will conduct thematic analysis of findings. Data will be presented in narrative and tabular forms.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: There are no formal ethics requirements as we are not collecting primary data. Results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and shared at international conferences.}, }
@article {pmid34663164, year = {2023}, author = {Garcia Diaz, LV and Richardson, J}, title = {Occupational therapy's contributions to combating climate change and lifestyle diseases.}, journal = {Scandinavian journal of occupational therapy}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {992-999}, doi = {10.1080/11038128.2021.1989484}, pmid = {34663164}, issn = {1651-2014}, mesh = {Humans ; *Occupational Therapy ; Climate Change ; Life Style ; Occupational Therapists ; Occupations ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The interdependence between human occupations, lifestyle diseases and climate change provides an opportunity to address them simultaneously. Occupational therapists' training in lifestyle modification and knowledge about the impact of the physical environment on daily occupations puts them in a unique position to contribute to global efforts of combating climate change and lifestyle diseases through the promotion of sustainable occupations.<br><br>AIM: To illustrate how occupational therapists can contribute to global efforts of combating climate change and lifestyle diseases by framing climate change from a personal and public health perspective.<br><br>METHOD: In this discussion paper we argue that occupational therapists can use education and lifestyle modification to support individuals in the prevention and management of lifestyle diseases and that they can help design and advocate for environments that promote sustainable occupations.<br><br>RESULT: This discussion paper highlights the contributions that occupational therapists can make to how we understand and address climate change and lifestyle diseases.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: We argue that by framing the climate change discourse from a health perspective, occupational therapists can contribute to global efforts of combating climate change and lifestyle diseases by supporting individuals to engage in sustainable occupations and communities to facilitate this engagement.}, }
@article {pmid34658197, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, MY and Zhang, CJ and Mi, CR and Han, L and Li, ML and Xu, WX and Yang, WK}, title = {[Potential impacts of climate change on suitable habitats of Marco Polo sheep in China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {9}, pages = {3127-3135}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202109.020}, pmid = {34658197}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Sheep ; }, abstract = {Climate change may lead to biodiversity loss and species extinction. Understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution pattern of endangered species is of great value to the identification of priority reserves and the formulation of relevant conservation strategies. Based on the distribution data of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) obtained from the field survey in Taxkorgan Nature Reserve (TNR) in Xinjiang during 2017-2018, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the distribution pattern of its suitable habitat under climate change. The results showed that the suitable habitat of Marco Polo sheep was mainly distributed in the northwest of the TNR, with temperature as the key factor affecting its suitable habitat distribution. Under the medium and high emission concentration (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the suitable habitat area of Marco Polo sheep would decrease in the next two periods (2050s and 2070s), with the loss rate of suitable habitat being as high as 40.5%. The loss of suitable habitat was mainly located in the low-altitude area, while the area of suitable habitat increased correspondingly in the high-altitude area. The area of suitable habitat from low elevation to high elevation increased with the increases of greenhouse gas emission concentration. According to the results of centroid transfer, the suitable habitat was mainly moved to the west, namely Tajikistan, the main distribution country of Marco Polo sheep.}, }
@article {pmid34658117, year = {2022}, author = {Zwerschke, N and Sands, CJ and Roman-Gonzalez, A and Barnes, DKA and Guzzi, A and Jenkins, S and Muñoz-Ramírez, C and Scourse, J}, title = {Quantification of blue carbon pathways contributing to negative feedback on climate change following glacier retreat in West Antarctic fjords.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {8-20}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15898}, pmid = {34658117}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Estuaries ; Feedback ; *Ice Cover ; }, abstract = {Global warming is causing significant losses of marine ice around the polar regions. In Antarctica, the retreat of tidewater glaciers is opening up novel, low-energy habitats (fjords) that have the potential to provide a negative feedback loop to climate change. These fjords are being colonized by organisms on and within the sediment and act as a sink for particulate matter. So far, blue carbon potential in Antarctic habitats has mainly been estimated using epifaunal megazoobenthos (although some studies have also considered macrozoobenthos). We investigated two further pathways of carbon storage and potential sequestration by measuring the concentration of carbon of infaunal macrozoobenthos and total organic carbon (TOC) deposited in the sediment. We took samples along a temporal gradient since time of last glacier ice cover (1-1000 years) at three fjords along the West Antarctic Peninsula. We tested the hypothesis that seabed carbon standing stock would be mainly driven by time since last glacier covered. However, results showed this to be much more complex. Infauna were highly variable over this temporal gradient and showed similar total mass of carbon standing stock per m[2] as literature estimates of Antarctic epifauna. TOC mass in the sediment, however, was an order of magnitude greater than stocks of infaunal and epifaunal carbon and increased with time since last ice cover. Thus, blue carbon stocks and recent gains around Antarctica are likely much higher than previously estimated as is their negative feedback on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34657461, year = {2021}, author = {Hacket-Pain, A and Bogdziewicz, M}, title = {Climate change and plant reproduction: trends and drivers of mast seeding change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {1839}, pages = {20200379}, pmid = {34657461}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Reproduction ; Seeds/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is reshaping global vegetation through its impacts on plant mortality, but recruitment creates the next generation of plants and will determine the structure and composition of future communities. Recruitment depends on mean seed production, but also on the interannual variability and among-plant synchrony in seed production, the phenomenon known as mast seeding. Thus, predicting the long-term response of global vegetation dynamics to climate change requires understanding the response of masting to changing climate. Recently, data and methods have become available allowing the first assessments of long-term changes in masting. Reviewing the literature, we evaluate evidence for a fingerprint of climate change on mast seeding and discuss the drivers and impacts of these changes. We divide our discussion into the main characteristics of mast seeding: interannual variation, synchrony, temporal autocorrelation and mast frequency. Data indicate that masting patterns are changing but the direction of that change varies, likely reflecting the diversity of proximate factors underlying masting across taxa. Experiments to understand the proximate mechanisms underlying masting, in combination with the analysis of long-term datasets, will enable us to understand this observed variability in the response of masting. This will allow us to predict future shifts in masting patterns, and consequently ecosystem impacts of climate change via its impacts on masting. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.}, }
@article {pmid34657282, year = {2021}, author = {Owens, K}, title = {Breakthrough climate litigation positions courts to combat the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {215}, number = {9}, pages = {395-397}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.51288}, pmid = {34657282}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid34656855, year = {2021}, author = {Amstutz, A and Firth, LB and Spicer, JI and Hanley, ME}, title = {Facing up to climate change: Community composition varies with aspect and surface temperature in the rocky intertidal.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {172}, number = {}, pages = {105482}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105482}, pmid = {34656855}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Gastropoda ; Temperature ; *Thoracica ; }, abstract = {Marine rocky intertidal organisms are amongst those most affected by climate change with regional distributional changes observed for many species. Although often ascribed to increased sea surface temperatures, precise assessment of the local habitat conditions underpinning observed and predicted changes in community assembly is lacking. Here we examine how aspect (i.e. north-south orientation) affects intertidal community composition and how rock surface temperatures and stress responses of two dominant grazer species (Patella spp.) elucidate emergent differences. We quantified year-round temperature variation and surveyed intertidal community composition on paired natural rock gullies with Equator- (EF) and Pole-facing (PF) surfaces. We also investigated variation in limpet (Patella spp.) reproductive phenology and osmotic stress. Average annual temperatures were 0.8 °C (1.6 °C at low tide) higher, with six-fold more frequent extremes (i.e. > 30 °C) on EF than PF surfaces. Intertidal community composition varied with aspect across trophic levels with greater overall species richness, abundance of primary producers and grazers on PF-surfaces, and greater barnacle abundance on EF-surfaces. Although species richness of organisms from different biogeographical origins ('Boreal' or 'Lusitanian') did not vary, the Lusitanian limpet Patella depressa exhibited earlier reproductive development on EF-surfaces and both limpet species exhibited greater thermal stress on EF-surfaces. We argue that our study system provides a good model for understanding how temperature variation at local scales can affect community composition, as well as ecophysiological and ecological responses to climate change and so better inform and predict regional range shifts over coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid34656577, year = {2022}, author = {Deihimfard, R and Rahimi-Moghaddam, S and Collins, B and Azizi, K}, title = {Future climate change could reduce irrigated and rainfed wheat water footprint in arid environments.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {807}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {150991}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150991}, pmid = {34656577}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Nitrogen ; *Triticum ; *Water ; }, abstract = {The concept of water footprint (WF) has been used to manage freshwater resources for the past two decades and is considered as indicator of the sustainability of agricultural systems. Accordingly, the current study aimed to quantify WF and its components in the future climate for rainfed and irrigated wheat agro-ecosystems in 17 provinces of Iran located in arid or semi-arid environments. The provinces were divided into five climate classes. The simulations were conducted under current (1980-2010) and future climate (2040-2070) using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop model, following the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocol. Baseline simulations indicated that the total WF, averaged across all climate classes, was 1148 m[3] t[-1] for irrigated and 1155 m[3] t[-1] for rainfed wheat. WF was projected to decline in the future compared to baseline in both irrigated and rainfed systems mostly because of increases in yield of +9% in rainfed systems and 3.5% in irrigated systems, and decreases in water consumption by -5.4% and -10.1%, respectively. However, the share of gray water footprint (WFgray) was projected to increase in the near future for both rainfed (+5.4%) and irrigated (+6.9%) systems. These findings suggest that cleaner and more sustainable production (i.e. obtaining grain yield under optimal water and nitrogen consumption) could be achieved in irrigated and rainfed wheat ago-ecosystems if optimal N fertilizer management is adopted. Additionally, rainfed cultivation can be further expanded in some areas which is expected to result in a substantial reduction in blue water (i.e. less irrigation), especially in sub-humid and semi-arid cool areas.}, }
@article {pmid34656376, year = {2021}, author = {Pack, KE and Riusa, M and Mieszkowska, N}, title = {Corrigendum to "Long-term environmental tolerance of the non-indigenous Pacific oyster to expected contemporary climate change conditions" [Mar. Environ. Res. 164(2021)].}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {172}, number = {}, pages = {105483}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105483}, pmid = {34656376}, issn = {1879-0291}, }
@article {pmid34655385, year = {2022}, author = {Shahbaz, P and Haq, SU and Boz, I}, title = {Linking climate change adaptation practices with farm technical efficiency and fertilizer use: a study of wheat-maize mix cropping zone of Punjab province, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {16925-16938}, pmid = {34655385}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Climate Change ; Farmers ; Farms ; *Fertilizers ; Pakistan ; *Triticum ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a serious threat to global agriculture and the farming community is well aware of this challenge. This is the first empirical study that looks beyond the traditional studies only limited to the adoption of climate change measures by estimating the impact of adopted practices on technical efficiency and computing the actual level of fertilizer at the farm level. For this purpose, face-to-face interviews were conducted for data collection with 196 farmers selected through multiple stage simple random sampling in the wheat-maize mix cropping zone of Punjab province. The results depicted that changing fertilizer was the most commonly adopted strategy (76%) to negate the effects of climate changes on crop production. Stochastic frontier analysis results revealed that the adoption of diversification practices, soil and water conservation practices, and modern input use strategies were influential factors explaining the technical efficiency differential among different farmers. The average technical efficiency score was 0.71 in the locality implying that farmers have an opportunity to increase their farm efficiency by 29% with the present level of inputs. Moreover, adopters of modern input practices with a high index were 27% more efficient than those with a low adaptation index of these climate countering measures. The empirical results also revealed the excessive use of nitrogen fertilizer to counter the climate change impacts at the agricultural farms. This result has important policy implications for government agencies that it is not enough just to guide and motivate the farmers to adopt certain strategies to negate the effect of climate change. They should also be informed about the exact usage level of those suggested measures.}, }
@article {pmid34654572, year = {2021}, author = {Pergent-Martini, C and Pergent, G and Monnier, B and Boudouresque, CF and Mori, C and Valette-Sansevin, A}, title = {"Contribution of Posidonia oceanica meadows in the context of climate change mitigation in the Mediterranean Sea" [Mar. Environ. Res. 165 (2021)].}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {172}, number = {}, pages = {105454}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105454}, pmid = {34654572}, issn = {1879-0291}, }
@article {pmid34653297, year = {2022}, author = {Fan, L and Dippold, MA and Thiel, V and Ge, T and Wu, J and Kuzyakov, Y and Dorodnikov, M}, title = {Temperature sensitivity of anaerobic methane oxidation versus methanogenesis in paddy soil: Implications for the CH4 balance under global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {654-664}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15935}, pmid = {34653297}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Anaerobiosis ; Global Warming ; *Methane ; *Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The global methane (CH4) budget is based on a sensitive balance between methanogenesis and CH4 oxidation (aerobic and anaerobic). The response of these processes to climate warming, however, is not quantified. This largely reflects our lack of knowledge about the temperature sensitivity (Q10) of the anaerobic oxidation of CH4 (AOM)-a ubiquitous process in soils. Based on a [13] CH4 labeling experiment, we determined the rate, Q10 and activation energy of AOM and of methanogenesis in a paddy soil at three temperatures (5, 20, 35°C). The rates of AOM and of methanogenesis increased exponentially with temperature, whereby the AOM rate was significantly lower than methanogenesis. Both the activation energy and Q10 of AOM dropped significantly from 5-20 to 20-35°C, indicating that AOM is a highly temperature-dependent microbial process. Nonetheless, the Q10 of AOM and of methanogenesis were similar at 5-35°C, implying a comparable temperature dependence of AOM and methanogenesis in paddy soil. The continuous increase of AOM Q10 over the 28-day experiment reflects the successive utilization of electron acceptors according to their thermodynamic efficiency. The basic constant for Q10 of AOM was calculated to be 0.1 units for each 3.2 kJ mol[-1] increase of activation energy. We estimate the AOM in paddy soils to consume 2.2~5.5 Tg CH4 per year on a global scale. Considering these results in conjunction with literature data, the terrestrial AOM in total consumes ~30% of overall CH4 production. Our data corroborate a similar Q10 of AOM and methanogenesis. As the rate of AOM in paddy soils is lower than methanogenesis, however, it will not fully compensate for an increased methane production under climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid34651175, year = {2022}, author = {Davies, B and Bhutta, MF}, title = {Geriatric medicine in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Age and ageing}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/ageing/afab199}, pmid = {34651175}, issn = {1468-2834}, mesh = {Aged ; Carbon Footprint ; Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Frailty ; *Geriatrics ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been termed the greatest threat to human health of the 21st century. Older people and those living with frailty are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change including heatwaves and extreme weather events, and therefore, we have a responsibility to advocate for action on the climate emergency and take steps to reduce the environmental impact of our care provision. The NHS contributes 5.7% to the carbon footprint of the UK, and by reviewing the financial costs associated with frailty, we estimate the carbon footprint of frailty to be 1.7 MtCO2e, or 7% of the total NHS carbon footprint. Resource use also increases with age with particular interventions and medical equipment such as hearing and mobility aids being predominantly associated with the care of older people. The NHS has committed to net zero carbon emissions by 2045 and in order to achieve this we all need to act-balancing the triple bottom line of environmental, social and financial impacts alongside outcomes for patients and populations when making decisions about care. The principles of sustainable healthcare are already embedded in the geriatrician's holisitic approach to the care of older people and those living with frailty, and the imperative to reduce the carbon footprint of healthcare should add weight to the argument for extending the role of the geriatrician into other specialties. It is time to begin our journey to net-zero geriatric medicine.}, }
@article {pmid34650184, year = {2021}, author = {Zając, Z and Kulisz, J and Woźniak, A and Bartosik, K and Khan, A}, title = {Seasonal activity of Dermacentor reticulatus ticks in the era of progressive climate change in eastern Poland.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {20382}, pmid = {34650184}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Dermacentor/*physiology ; Female ; Male ; Poland ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Dermacentor reticulatus ticks are one of the most important vectors and reservoirs of tick-borne pathogens in Europe. Changes in the abundance and range of this species have been observed in the last decade and these ticks are collected in areas previously considered tick-free. This may be influenced by progressive climate change. Eastern Poland is an area where the local population of D. reticulatus is one of the most numerous among those described so far. At the same time, the region is characterized by a significant increase in the mean air temperature in recent years (by 1.81 °C in 2020) and a decrease in the average number of days with snow cover (by 64 days in 2020) and in the number of days with frost (by 20 days in 2020) on an annual basis compared to the long-term average. The aim of our research was to investigate the rhythms of seasonal activity and the population size of D. reticulatus in the era of progressive climate change. To this end, questing ticks were collected in 2017-2020. Next, the weather conditions in the years of observation were analyzed and compared with multi-year data covering 30 years preceding the study. The research results show that, in eastern Poland, there is a stable population of D. reticulatus with the peak of activity in spring or autumn (up to a maximum of 359 individuals within 30 min of collection) depending on the year of observation. Ticks of this species may also be active in winter months. The activity of D. reticulatus is influenced by a saturation deficit.}, }
@article {pmid34649894, year = {2021}, author = {Xie, E and Howard, C and Buchman, S and Miller, FA}, title = {Acting on climate change for a healthier future: Critical role for primary care in Canada.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {67}, number = {10}, pages = {725-730}, pmid = {34649894}, issn = {1715-5258}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Primary Health Care ; }, }
@article {pmid34649888, year = {2021}, author = {Fraser, S}, title = {Climate change is a health issue.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {67}, number = {10}, pages = {719}, pmid = {34649888}, issn = {1715-5258}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid34649851, year = {2021}, author = {Wise, J}, title = {Emphasising the health benefits of climate change actions can make them more attractive to governments, says scientists.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {375}, number = {}, pages = {n2508}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.n2508}, pmid = {34649851}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid34649848, year = {2021}, author = {Sharpe, I and Davison, CM}, title = {Climate change, climate-related disasters and mental disorder in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {e051908}, pmid = {34649848}, issn = {2044-6055}, support = {PJT-162463//CIHR/Canada ; PJT-165971//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Developing Countries ; *Disasters ; Humans ; *Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change and climate-related disasters adversely affect mental health. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and climate-related disasters and often lack adequate mental healthcare infrastructure. We used the scoping review methodology to determine how exposure to climate change and climate-related disasters influences the presence of mental disorders among those living in LMICs. We also aimed to recognise existing gaps in this area of literature.<br><br>METHODS: This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist. To identify relevant studies, we searched five electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, APA PsycInfo and Sociological Abstracts) from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2019. We also searched the grey literature. Included studies had an adult-focused LMIC population, a climate change or climate-related disaster exposure and a mental disorder outcome. Relevant study information was extracted and synthesised.<br><br>RESULTS: Fifty-eight studies were identified, most of which (n=48) employed a cross-sectional design. The most commonly studied exposure-outcome combinations were flood-related post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (n=28), flood-related depression (n=15) and storm-related PTSD (n=13). The majority of studies identified a positive exposure-outcome association. However, few studies included a baseline or comparator (ie, unexposed) group, thereby limiting our understanding of the magnitude or nature of this association. There was also great heterogeneity in this literature, making studies difficult to pool or compare. Several research gaps were identified including the lack of longitudinal studies and non-uniformity of geographic coverage.<br><br>CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this was the first scoping review to investigate the relationship between climate change and climate-related disaster exposures and mental disorder outcomes in LMICs. Our findings support the need for further research, but also highlight that mental health should be a priority within LMIC climate change policy considerations.}, }
@article {pmid34647909, year = {2021}, author = {}, title = {Climate Change and Health: A New Urgency.}, journal = {Holistic nursing practice}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {295}, doi = {10.1097/HNP.0000000000000483}, pmid = {34647909}, issn = {1550-5138}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34646186, year = {2021}, author = {Iniguez-Gallardo, V and Lenti Boero, D and Tzanopoulos, J}, title = {Climate Change and Emotions: Analysis of People's Emotional States in Southern Ecuador.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {644240}, pmid = {34646186}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change involves multiple emotional expressions associated with specific labels, notably: 'concern,' 'guilt,' or 'scepticism.' However, there are other types of emotions that have been less analysed, such as 'powerlessness,' 'anger' and 'confusion' that are of equal importance for predicting behavioural changes toward this climatic issue. Likewise, few studies in this research field rely on qualitative data to understand and identify the causative agents for the emotional arousal. This research explores a range of emotions, mixing those that have been widely studied and those that have been hardly analysed. It also looks at the demographic parameters associated with such emotions using a population sample from southern Ecuador. The study analyses quantitative and qualitative data gathered through structured-questionnaires whereby participants were given agency to select and define how they themselves sense emotionally climate change. The results indicate that two of the five participants' most selected emotions are shared with other nations ('concern,' 'guilt'), while the other three have been less reported and studied in the climate change field ('powerlessness,' 'anger,' and 'confusion'). These emotions were found to be aroused by different reasons associated with specific demographic variables. The findings reveal the role of the cultural and local environment in the emotional arousal and its relevance for designing more effective climate communication campaigns.}, }
@article {pmid34646104, year = {2021}, author = {Pathak, N and McKinney, A}, title = {Planetary Health, Climate Change, and Lifestyle Medicine: Threats and Opportunities.}, journal = {American journal of lifestyle medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {541-552}, pmid = {34646104}, issn = {1559-8284}, abstract = {Global environmental degradation and climate change threaten the foundation of human health and well-being. In a confluence of crises, the accelerating pace of climate change and other environmental disruptions pose an additional, preventable danger to a global population that is both aging and carrying a growing burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Climate change and environmental disruption function as "threat multipliers," especially for those with NCDs, worsening the potential health impacts on those with suboptimal health. At the same time, these environmental factors threaten the basic pillars of health and prevention, increasing the risk of developing chronic disease. In the face of these threats, the core competencies of lifestyle medicine (LM) present crucial opportunities to mitigate climate change and human health impacts while also allowing individuals and communities to build resilience. LM health professionals are uniquely positioned to coach patients toward climate-healthy behavior changes that heal both people and the planet.}, }
@article {pmid34645438, year = {2021}, author = {Lutchmun, W and Ablorde, A and Chang, HW and Froeschl, G and Misganaw, E and Sapkota, BP and Scholze, S and Singo, J and Hoffaeller, L}, title = {Proceedings from the CIH-LMU 2021 Symposium: "Global Health Perspectives: Climate Change &amp; Migration".}, journal = {BMC proceedings}, volume = {15}, number = {Suppl 12}, pages = {21}, pmid = {34645438}, issn = {1753-6561}, abstract = {Climate change shapes human migration through the interaction of environmental changes with political, social, economic, and demographic drivers of mobility. Low-and middle-income countries bear the brunt of the health impacts of climate change and migration, despite their overall low contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. The CIH[LMU] Symposium 2021 aimed to explore the complex interconnections between climate change, migration and health from diverse global perspectives. A number of themes, such as the relationship between climate and trade, the role of technology, and the issue of responsibility were tackled. The speakers also highlighted the need for climate resilient health-systems, gender mainstreaming in climate strategies, collaboration between the Global North and South and urgently defining the 'climate refugee'. It is crucial that the narrative around climate change moves from an environmental framing to encompass human health and migration within climate discussions and strategies.}, }
@article {pmid34642677, year = {2021}, author = {Semenza, JC}, title = {Lateral public health: Advancing systemic resilience to climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet regional health. Europe}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {100231}, pmid = {34642677}, issn = {2666-7762}, }
@article {pmid34642442, year = {2021}, author = {Maleki, S and Rahdari, V and Baghdadi, N}, title = {Humans in the upstream can exacerbate climate change impacts on water birds' habitat in the downstream.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {20203}, pmid = {34642442}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Afghanistan ; Agriculture/*methods ; Animals ; Birds/*growth &amp; development ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Entropy ; Human Activities ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The present paper aims to quantify how human-made changes in the upstream exacerbate climate change impacts on water birds' habitat in the downstream. To reduce climate change effects and design adaptation policies, it is important to identify whether human activities understate or overstate the effects of climate change in a region on its inhabitants. This paper also shows how human activities may magnify climate change impacts both locally and regionally. Land-use/land-cover change as the important sign of human-made destruction in an ecosystem was detected in the upstream of the Helmand basin over 40 years. Owing to conflicts in Afghanistan, studies on this basin are rare. The water bird's habitat suitability maps during the study period were created using the maximum entropy model and the multi-criteria evaluation method. The post-classification method was applied to show the land-use/land-cover change over 40 years. These results were compared to the area of suitable habitat for water birds. The findings of these analyses indicated that the irrigated farming was expanded in the upstream despite climate change and water limitation, while the water birds' habitat in the downstream was declined. These results revealed that the unsustainable pattern of farming and blocking water behind dams in the upstream exacerbated the negative effects of climate change on water birds' habitat in the downstream. The significance of this study is to demonstrate the role of human in exacerbating climate change impacts both locally and regionally.}, }
@article {pmid34641725, year = {2021}, author = {Muller, EM and Dungan, AM and Million, WC and Eaton, KR and Petrik, C and Bartels, E and Hall, ER and Kenkel, CD}, title = {Heritable variation and lack of tradeoffs suggest adaptive capacity in Acropora cervicornis despite negative synergism under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {288}, number = {1960}, pages = {20210923}, pmid = {34641725}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; }, abstract = {Knowledge of multi-stressor interactions and the potential for tradeoffs among tolerance traits is essential for developing intervention strategies for the conservation and restoration of reef ecosystems in a changing climate. Thermal extremes and acidification are two major co-occurring stresses predicted to limit the recovery of vital Caribbean reef-building corals. Here, we conducted an aquarium-based experiment to quantify the effects of increased water temperatures and pCO2 individually and in concert on 12 genotypes of the endangered branching coral Acropora cervicornis, currently being reared and outplanted for large-scale coral restoration. Quantification of 12 host, symbiont and holobiont traits throughout the two-month-long experiment showed several synergistic negative effects, where the combined stress treatment often caused a greater reduction in physiological function than the individual stressors alone. However, we found significant genetic variation for most traits and positive trait correlations among treatments indicating an apparent lack of tradeoffs, suggesting that adaptive evolution will not be constrained. Our results suggest that it may be possible to incorporate climate-resistant coral genotypes into restoration and selective breeding programmes, potentially accelerating adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid34638737, year = {2021}, author = {Monder, H and Maillard, M and Chérel, I and Zimmermann, SD and Paris, N and Cuéllar, T and Gaillard, I}, title = {Adjustment of K[+] Fluxes and Grapevine Defense in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {22}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {34638737}, issn = {1422-0067}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Fruit/*growth &amp; development ; Ion Transport ; *Plant Diseases ; Potassium/*metabolism ; *Stress, Physiological ; Vitis/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Grapevine is one of the most economically important fruit crops due to the high value of its fruit and its importance in winemaking. The current decrease in grape berry quality and production can be seen as the consequence of various abiotic constraints imposed by climate changes. Specifically, produced wines have become too sweet, with a stronger impression of alcohol and fewer aromatic qualities. Potassium is known to play a major role in grapevine growth, as well as grape composition and wine quality. Importantly, potassium ions (K[+]) are involved in the initiation and maintenance of the berry loading process during ripening. Moreover, K[+] has also been implicated in various defense mechanisms against abiotic stress. The first part of this review discusses the main negative consequences of the current climate, how they disturb the quality of grape berries at harvest and thus ultimately compromise the potential to obtain a great wine. In the second part, the essential electrical and osmotic functions of K[+], which are intimately dependent on K[+] transport systems, membrane energization, and cell K[+] homeostasis, are presented. This knowledge will help to select crops that are better adapted to adverse environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid34636413, year = {2021}, author = {G Campoy, J and Lema, M and Fenollosa, E and Munné-Bosch, S and Retuerto, R}, title = {Functional responses to climate change may increase invasive potential of Carpobrotus edulis.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {108}, number = {10}, pages = {1902-1916}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1745}, pmid = {34636413}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {*Aizoaceae ; *Climate Change ; Introduced Species ; Plants ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {PREMISE: Biological invasions and climate change are major threats to biodiversity. It is therefore important to anticipate how the climate changes projected for Southern Europe would affect the ecophysiological performance of the invasive South African plant, Carpobrotus edulis (ice plant or sour fig), and its capacity to undergo rapid adaptive evolution.<br><br>METHODS: We manipulated the climate conditions in a field plot located on the island of S&#xe1;lvora (northwest of the Iberian Peninsula) to establish a full factorial experiment with C. edulis plants transplanted from four native (southern African) and four invasive (northwestern Iberian Peninsula) populations. Throughout 14 months we measured growth and functional traits of this species under two temperatures (control vs. increased), and two rainfall levels (control vs. reduced).<br><br>RESULTS: Temperature increased photochemical efficiency and relative growth rate of C. edulis. Rainfall modulated some of the effects of temperature on C and N isotopic composition, and pigment contents. Invasive populations showed lower root mass allocation and higher survival rates, as well as increased water use efficiency, lipid peroxidation, chlorophyll, and xanthophyll cycle pigment contents than native populations.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The increased growth and physiological performances observed under our experimental conditions suggest that the expected climate changes would further promote the invasion of C. edulis. Differences between native and invasive genotypes in survival and functional traits revealed that populations have diverged during the process of invasion, what gives support to the invasiveness hypothesis. Our findings highlight the importance of analyzing intraspecific variability in functional responses to better predict how invasive species will respond to environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid34636101, year = {2021}, author = {Roe, S and Streck, C and Beach, R and Busch, J and Chapman, M and Daioglou, V and Deppermann, A and Doelman, J and Emmet-Booth, J and Engelmann, J and Fricko, O and Frischmann, C and Funk, J and Grassi, G and Griscom, B and Havlik, P and Hanssen, S and Humpenöder, F and Landholm, D and Lomax, G and Lehmann, J and Mesnildrey, L and Nabuurs, GJ and Popp, A and Rivard, C and Sanderman, J and Sohngen, B and Smith, P and Stehfest, E and Woolf, D and Lawrence, D}, title = {Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {23}, pages = {6025-6058}, pmid = {34636101}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Feasibility Studies ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO2 eq) land-based mitigation is 8-13.8 GtCO2 eq yr[-1] between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost-effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost-effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost-effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand-side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75-4.8 GtCO2eq yr[-1]) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand-side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co-benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio-cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land-based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near-term, low-cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land-based measures available, their potential co-benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country-specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.}, }
@article {pmid34633554, year = {2021}, author = {Barnes, DKA and Sands, CJ and Paulsen, ML and Moreno, B and Moreau, C and Held, C and Downey, R and Bax, N and Stark, JS and Zwerschke, N}, title = {Correction to: Societal importance of Antarctic negative feedbacks on climate change: blue carbon gains from sea ice, ice shelf and glacier losses.}, journal = {Die Naturwissenschaften}, volume = {108}, number = {6}, pages = {51}, doi = {10.1007/s00114-021-01759-5}, pmid = {34633554}, issn = {1432-1904}, }
@article {pmid34631148, year = {2021}, author = {Brooks, JR and Ebi, KL}, title = {Climate Change Warning Labels on Gas Pumps: The Role of Public Opinion Formation in Climate Change Mitigation Policies.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {5}, number = {10}, pages = {2000086}, pmid = {34631148}, issn = {2056-6646}, abstract = {This article analyzes City of Cambridge, Massachusetts legislation that requires all gasoline and diesel pumps to display a consumer warning label outlining the climate change and public health impacts from fuel combustion. This review of empirical and theoretical scholarship on efficacy of carbon label programs and health warning labels suggests government-sponsored "warming labels" may increase self-efficacy beliefs. The analysis reveals warming labels may activate extant climate concern norms and shift public opinion toward long term support of sustainable transportation emissions policies and practices.}, }
@article {pmid34629999, year = {2022}, author = {Bauer, M and Bulatenko, M and Shimshirt, N}, title = {Development of corporate investment funds as a tool to achieve the goals of international treaties in the field of climate change.}, journal = {International environmental agreements : politics, law and economics}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {119-138}, pmid = {34629999}, issn = {1573-1553}, abstract = {The UNFCCC and Paris Climate Agreement set the environmental agenda for many years to come, making environmental protection a global trend. Herewith, these documents created many unprecedented challenges for business, shifting the focus from the original role of commercial benefit to the trade-off between profit and social responsibility. The need to adapt business strategies to the existing agenda has created new requirements for shaping the investment environment. In this aspect, there arises the question regarding the organizational and legal form the investment activities can be carried out in and what additional regulatory instruments can be applied to simplify the procedure for attracting environmental investments. In the current conditions, corporate investment funds may be considered as promising instruments for achieving the goals of international climate agreements. The study suggests that corporate investment funds can become an effective tool for attracting environmental investments. The study purpose is to assess the role of corporate investment funds in international climate agreements goals achievement, to consider the possibility of development strategies to improve management efficiency in the corporate investment funds in terms of their linkage to UNFCCC, Paris Climate Agreement and in a comparative perspective. The study methodology is based on the analysis of world and Russian law enforcement practices in the corporate activities field through the application of a systematic approach. The relationship between corporate governance represented by big businesses and the state is considered in the framework of the investment mechanism and the institutional environment, which is visualized in the model of the business landscape of a corporate investment fund in order to determine management strategies in the operation and development of a corporate investment fund. The study results can be put into practice by financial market participants and other entities in order to increase the efficiency of the use of assets and knowledge of national jurisdictions in the context of world and Russian practices.}, }
@article {pmid34629165, year = {2021}, author = {Leddin, D and Omary, MB and Veitch, A and Metz, G and Amrani, N and Aabakken, L and Raja Ali, RA and Alvares-Da-Silva, MR and Armstrong, D and Boyacioglu, S and Chen, Y and Elwakil, R and Fock, KM and Hamid, SS and Makharia, G and Macrae, F and Malekzadeh, R and Mulder, CJ and Piscoya, A and Perman, ML and Sadeghi, A and Sáenz, R and Saurin, JC and Butt, AS and Wu, K and Lee, YY}, title = {Uniting the Global Gastroenterology Community to Meet the Challenge of Climate Change and Non-Recyclable Waste.}, journal = {Gastroenterology}, volume = {161}, number = {5}, pages = {1354-1360}, doi = {10.1053/j.gastro.2021.08.001}, pmid = {34629165}, issn = {1528-0012}, mesh = {*Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Disposable Equipment ; Equipment Reuse ; *Gastroenterology ; *Gastrointestinal Diseases/diagnosis/epidemiology/therapy ; Humans ; *Medical Waste/adverse effects ; *Medical Waste Disposal ; Recycling ; }, }
@article {pmid34628663, year = {2022}, author = {Zhang, J and Liu, Y and Dai, L}, title = {Agricultural practice contributed more to changes in soybean yield than climate change from 1981 to 2010 in northeast China.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {102}, number = {6}, pages = {2387-2395}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.11576}, pmid = {34628663}, issn = {1097-0010}, support = {42122003//the National Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars/ ; XDA28060200//the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; Y202016//the Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS/ ; 2017RC101//the Program for "Kezhen" Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Plant Breeding ; *Glycine max ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although climate change and agricultural practices have non-negligible impacts on crop yields, their quantitative contributions to soybean yields remain unclear. First-order difference multiple regression was used to determine the respective contributions of climate change and agricultural practice to changes in soybean yields at station level from 1981 to 2010 in northeast China.<br><br>RESULTS: From 1981 to 2010, the soybean yields at 87% of the stations were increasing with an average 41.18&#x2009;kg&#x2009;ha&#x2009;year[-1] change trend in northeast China. The individual impacts of climate change and agricultural practice on soybean yield were -0.33% to 0.58% year[-1] and -3.3% to 7.89% year[-1] , respectively. The sensitivity of the soybean yield to climatic factors was related to latitude, and yields at high-latitude stations were positively correlated with temperature but negatively correlated with accumulated sunshine hours. Climate change contributed -24% to 38% to the trend in soybean yield, and the temperature had the greatest effect of all the climatic factors.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The contribution of agricultural practices was greater than that of climate change, counteracting the adverse effects of climate change and even affecting the direction of soybean yield changes. In adaptive decision making, priority should be given to management measures that have less impact on the environment, such as breeding new varieties adapted to specific latitudes, thus promoting the sustainable production of soybeans. &#xa9; 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid34627910, year = {2022}, author = {Arunrat, N and Sereenonchai, S and Chaowiwat, W and Wang, C}, title = {Climate change impact on major crop yield and water footprint under CMIP6 climate projections in repeated drought and flood areas in Thailand.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {807}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {150741}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150741}, pmid = {34627910}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Floods ; Thailand ; Water ; }, abstract = {Understanding crop yield and water requirements in response to the future climate at the local scale is essential to develop more precise and appropriate adaptation strategies. From this perspective, repeated drought and flood events in the lower north of Thailand were investigated. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the impact of climate change on major crop yields and the water footprint (WF). Five global circulation model datasets from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were selected. Three future periods: near (2015-2039), mid (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2100) under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios were used to predict the major crop yields and WF changes in the future. The precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were projected to increase in all periods under both scenarios. Rice yields in irrigated areas were predicted to rise gradually over the three projection periods under SSP245 but decline in mid and far-future periods under SSP585. There was a predicted reduction of first and second rice crop yields by -6.0% to -17.7% under SSP585. Fortunately, those rice yields were expected to increase in the near-future period under SSP245 by 3.0% to 4.3%. Growing maize, soybean, or mung bean instead of a second rice crop will have a less negative impact on future climate change. Changing from growing rice to be planting maize twice per year and growing cassava had increased favorability in rain-fed areas. The WF changes in the future were associated with future crop yield changes; therefore, the decrease in WFs was due to an increase in crop yield and vice-versa. The total WFs of maize, soybean, mung bean, and cassava production were roughly half that of rice production, indicating that these crops are suitable alternatives in the dry season.}, }
@article {pmid34627466, year = {2021}, author = {Sacks, E and Yangchen, S and Marten, R}, title = {COVID-19, climate change, and communities.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {10}, pages = {e663-e664}, pmid = {34627466}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*COVID-19/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Residence Characteristics ; }, }
@article {pmid34625789, year = {2022}, author = {Bush, D}, title = {Erratum to: Long-term research reveals potential role of hybrids in climate-change adaptation. A commentary on 'Expansion of the rare Eucalyptus risdonii under climate change through hybridisation with a closely related species despite hybrid inferiority'.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {129}, number = {1}, pages = {119}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcab109}, pmid = {34625789}, issn = {1095-8290}, }
@article {pmid34624898, year = {2021}, author = {Ditzen, B and Nikendei, C and Härter, M}, title = {[Psychosocial Medicine in Times of Change: Climate Change and Mental Health].}, journal = {Psychotherapie, Psychosomatik, medizinische Psychologie}, volume = {71}, number = {9-10}, pages = {361-362}, doi = {10.1055/a-1541-6799}, pmid = {34624898}, issn = {1439-1058}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Medicine ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid34623652, year = {2021}, author = {Griffiths, L and Black, D and Bryan, M and Moffett, A}, title = {Strong 'on farm' focus needed on climate change.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {189}, number = {7}, pages = {292}, doi = {10.1002/vetr.1042}, pmid = {34623652}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Farms ; }, }
@article {pmid34621043, year = {2021}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Climate change, science and COP26: have your say.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-02746-6}, pmid = {34621043}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid34620859, year = {2021}, author = {David, CG and Hennig, A and Ratter, BMW and Roeber, V and Zahid,  and Schlurmann, T}, title = {Considering socio-political framings when analyzing coastal climate change effects can prevent maldevelopment on small islands.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {5882}, pmid = {34620859}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Adapting to climate change and sea level rise is challenging on small islands. False adaptation can lead to adverse impacts on natural and societal dynamics. Therefore, an interdisciplinary perspective on the interaction of natural dynamics, societal demands, and political decisions is crucial. In this sense, this study scrutinizes coastal processes and socio-political dimensions of erosion on the reef island Fuvahmulah, the Maldives. The national government and Fuvahmulah's population have an opposed perception and attribution of the drivers and processes behind Fuvahmulah's most pressing coastal issue - coastal erosion. To review these perceptions, natural dynamics are recreated with process-based methods and discussed regarding present and projected marine pressures. Population surveys and interviews with actors in coastal development complement the physical insights into erosion on Fuvahmulah and describe the socio-political dimension of climate change adaptation on small islands. This interdisciplinary approach demonstrates how small-islands' adaptive capacities are typically impaired and disclose the potential of local knowledge to overcome maldevelopment.}, }
@article {pmid34620696, year = {2021}, author = {Leddin, D and Omary, MB and Veitch, A and Metz, G and Amrani, N and Aabakken, L and Raja Ali, RA and Alvares-Da-Silva, MR and Armstrong, D and Boyacioglu, S and Chen, Y and Elwakil, R and Fock, KM and Hamid, SS and Makharia, G and Macrae, F and Malekzadeh, R and Mulder, CJ and Piscoya, A and Perman, ML and Sadeghi, A and Saenz, R and Saurin, JC and Butt, AS and Wu, K and Yeh Lee, Y}, title = {Uniting the global gastroenterology community to meet the challenge of climate change and non-recyclable waste.}, journal = {Gut}, volume = {70}, number = {11}, pages = {2025-2029}, doi = {10.1136/gutjnl-2021-325789}, pmid = {34620696}, issn = {1468-3288}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Gastroenterology/*organization &amp; administration ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Medical Waste ; }, }
@article {pmid34619002, year = {2022}, author = {Renaud, LA and Festa-Bianchet, M and Pelletier, F}, title = {Testing the match-mismatch hypothesis in bighorn sheep in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {21-32}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15923}, pmid = {34619002}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Herbivory ; Seasons ; Sheep ; *Sheep, Bighorn ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In species with long gestation, females commit to reproduction several months before parturition. If cues driving conception date are uncoupled from spring conditions, parturition could be mistimed. Mismatch may increase with global change if the rate of temporal changes in autumn cues differs from the rate of change in spring conditions. Using 17 years of data on climate and vegetation phenology, we show that autumn temperature and precipitation, but not vegetation phenology, explain parturition date in bighorn sheep. Although autumn cues drive the timing of conception, they do not predict conditions at parturition in spring. We calculated the mismatch between individual parturition date and spring green-up, assessed whether mismatch increased over time and investigated the consequences of mismatch on lamb neonatal survival, weaning mass and overwinter survival. Mismatch fluctuated over time but showed no temporal trend. Temporal changes in green-up date did not lead to major fitness consequence of mismatch. Detailed data on individually marked animals revealed no effect of mismatch on neonatal or overwinter survival, but lamb weaning mass was negatively affected by mismatch. Capital breeders might be less sensitive to mismatch than income breeders because they are less dependent on daily food acquisition. Herbivores in seasonal environments may access sufficient forage to sustain lactation before or after the spring 'peak' green-up, and partly mitigate the consequences of a mismatch. Thus, the effect of phenological mismatch on fitness may be affected by species life history, highlighting the complexity in quantifying trophic mismatches in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34617932, year = {2021}, author = {Leddin, D and Omary, MB and Veitch, A and Metz, G and Amrani, N and Aabakken, L and Ali, RAR and Alvares-da-Silva, MR and Armstrong, D and Boyacioglu, S and Chen, Y and Elwakil, R and Fock, KM and Hamid, SS and Makharia, G and Macrae, F and Malekzadeh, R and Mulder, CJ and Piscoya, A and Perman, ML and Sadeghi, A and Sáenz, R and Saurin, JC and Butt, AS and Wu, K and Lee, YY}, title = {Uniting the Global Gastroenterology Community to Meet the Challenge of Climate Change and Nonrecyclable Waste.}, journal = {Journal of clinical gastroenterology}, volume = {55}, number = {10}, pages = {823-829}, pmid = {34617932}, issn = {1539-2031}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Gastroenterology ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been described as the greatest public health threat of the 21st century. It has significant implications for digestive health. A multinational team with representation from all continents, excluding Antarctica and covering 18 countries, has formulated a commentary which outlines both the implications for digestive health and ways in which this challenge can be faced.}, }
@article {pmid34617662, year = {2022}, author = {Hosseini, N and Mehrabian, A and Mostafavi, H}, title = {Modeling climate change effects on spatial distribution of wild Aegilops L. (Poaceae) toward food security management and biodiversity conservation in Iran.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {697-708}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4531}, pmid = {34617662}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Aegilops ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Food Security ; Humans ; Iran ; Poaceae ; }, abstract = {The demand for food resources is increasing quickly because human populations are growing; therefore, food security may become one of the largest human challenges of this century. Crop wild relatives (CWRs) are the most valuable plant genetic resources (PGR) for the conservation of genetic diversity in crops. However, climate change is an added pressure on biodiversity, particularly on this valuable group of plants. It is predicted that more than 50% of this group may be lost by 2055 as a result of the effects of climate change. Iran ranks high in the world in its conservation priorities for CWRs. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on Aegilops L. as important CWRs. MaxEnt was applied to predict the spatial distribution of seven Aegilops species under different climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) of 2050 and 2080. According to the findings, all species exhibited reduction or expansion responses under all of the above-mentioned climatic scenarios. However, the range change was negative for some species (i.e., Aegilops columnaris, Aegilops cylindrica, Aegilops speltoides, Aegilops tauschii [in all scenarios of 2050 and 2080], and Aegilops kotschyi [RCP 2.6 2050 and 2080]), and positive for others (i.e., Aegilops crassa, Aegilops triuncialis [in all scenarios of 2050 and 2080], and Aegilops kotschyi [RCP 8.5 2050 and 2080]). The results of this study emphasize the need for conservation plans for the country's genetic resources, including regular monitoring and assessment of ecological and demographic changes. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:697-708. © 2021 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid34617225, year = {2022}, author = {Naghavi, S and Ebrahimi-Khusfi, Z and Mirzaei, A}, title = {Decoupling pollution-agricultural growth and predicting climate change impacts on decoupling index using Bayesian network in different climatic regions.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {14677-14694}, pmid = {34617225}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Humans ; Iran ; }, abstract = {Applying the principles of healthy products through agriculture practices has become an important issue due to significant environmental impacts of agrochemicals application. The agrochemicals have been recognized as an essential component of modern agriculture, but they are also an important source of environmental pollution that threatens the human's health and are main sources of carbon emissions. Pesticides and fertilizers application are important in the process of Iran's food production. In Iran, intensifying the agricultural production has led to overuse of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. This work is the first effort to quantify and compare the decoupling index pollution from agricultural sector using Tapio decoupling indicator and predict climate change impacts on this index by using Bayesian network across the whole country of Iran. For this purpose, required annual data of predictor variables for the period of 2008 to 2018 was used to calculate the decoupling index. For projecting climate change impacts on this index by using Bayesian network, monthly mean values of climatic variables were used. While Iranian farmers are criticized for pesticide overuse, these study findings showed that during the period of 2008-2018, decoupling index for pesticides (agricultural pollution by using pesticide) and decoupling index for fertilizer (agricultural pollution by using fertilizer) in the selected provinces fluctuate between RD-SD, SD-SD, SD-SD, and RD-SD. Therefore, the decoupling states show that in most study years, there is a strong decoupling of agricultural growth in selected provinces. This means that in the selected provinces, pollutant emissions of chemical fertilizer and pesticides use for agricultural productions have decreased and it has been well controlled. Therefore, by expansion of agricultural sector, the situation of agricultural pollution in these provinces in most years has not been intensified. Control of agricultural pollution in these provinces has shown a positive and significant impact on public health. In selected provinces, the cleaner agricultural products and application of organic fertilizers have been increased. This study results also showed that the climate change will accelerate increment of pests population and thus pesticides application in different climatic regions.}, }
@article {pmid34615634, year = {2021}, author = {Stern, N and Patel, IG and Ward, B}, title = {Covid-19, climate change, and the environment: a sustainable, inclusive, and resilient global recovery.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {375}, number = {}, pages = {n2405}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.n2405}, pmid = {34615634}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid34614285, year = {2022}, author = {Ravi, S and Law, DJ and Caplan, JS and Barron-Gafford, GA and Dontsova, KM and Espeleta, JF and Villegas, JC and Okin, GS and Breshears, DD and Huxman, TE}, title = {Biological invasions and climate change amplify each other's effects on dryland degradation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {285-295}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15919}, pmid = {34614285}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Climate Models ; Desert Climate ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Poaceae ; }, abstract = {Climate models predict that, in the coming decades, many arid regions will experience increasingly hot conditions and will be affected more frequently by drought. These regions are also experiencing rapid vegetation change, notably invasion by exotic grasses. Invasive grasses spread rapidly into native desert ecosystems due, in particular, to interannual variability in precipitation and periodic fires. The resultant destruction of non-fire-adapted native shrub and grass communities and of the inherent soil resource heterogeneity can yield invader-dominated grasslands. Moreover, recurrent droughts are expected to cause widespread physiological stress and mortality of both invasive and native plants, as well as the loss of soil resources. However, the magnitude of these effects may differ between invasive and native grasses, especially under warmer conditions, rendering the trajectory of vegetated communities uncertain. Using the Biosphere 2 facility in the Sonoran Desert, we evaluated the viability of these hypothesized relationships by simulating combinations of drought and elevated temperature (+5°C) and assessing the ecophysiological and mortality responses of both a dominant invasive grass (Pennisetum ciliare or buffelgrass) and a dominant native grass (Heteropogan contortus or tanglehead). While both grasses survived protracted drought at ambient temperatures by inducing dormancy, drought under warmed conditions exceeded the tolerance limits of the native species, resulting in greater and more rapid mortality than exhibited by the invasive. Thus, two major drivers of global environmental change, biological invasion and climate change, can be expected to synergistically accelerate ecosystem degradation unless large-scale interventions are enacted.}, }
@article {pmid34614272, year = {2022}, author = {Schloss, CA and Cameron, DR and McRae, BH and Theobald, DM and Jones, A}, title = {"No-regrets" pathways for navigating climate change: planning for connectivity with land use, topography, and climate.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {e02468}, pmid = {34614272}, issn = {1939-5582}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Plants ; }, abstract = {As both plant and animal species shift their ranges in response to a changing climate, maintaining connectivity between present habitat and suitable habitat in the future will become increasingly important to ensure lasting protection for biodiversity. Because the temporal period commensurate with planning for mid-century change is multi-generational for most species, connectivity designed to facilitate climate adaptation requires pathways with 'stepping-stones' between current and future habitat. These areas should have habitats suitable not only for dispersal, but for all aspects of species lifecycles. We integrated present-day land use, topographic diversity, and projections of shifting climate regimes into a single connectivity modeling approach to identify pathways for mid-century shifts in species ranges. Using Omniscape we identified climate linkages, or areas important for climate change-driven movement, as the areas with more current flow than would be expected in the absence of climate considerations. This approach identified connectivity potential between natural lands in the present climate and natural lands with future analogous climate following topo-climatically diverse routes. We then translated the model output into a strategic framework to improve interpretation and to facilitate a more direct connection with conservation action. Across modified landscapes, pathways important to climate-driven movement were highly coincident with the last remaining present-day linkages, reinforcing their importance. Across unfragmented lands, the presence of climate-adapted pathways helped inform the prioritization of conservation actions in areas where multiple connectivity options still exist. Many climate linkages follow major watercourses along elevational gradients, highlighting the importance of protecting or managing for these natural linear pathways that provide movement routes for climate adaptation. By integrating enduring landscape features with climate projections and present-day land uses, our approach reveals "no-regrets" pathways to plan for a connected landscape in an uncertain future.}, }
@article {pmid34611559, year = {2021}, author = {Gemeda, DO and Korecha, D and Garedew, W}, title = {Evidences of climate change presences in the wettest parts of southwest Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {e08009}, pmid = {34611559}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change has been identified as a major challenge of rainfed agriculture. To contextualize whether there is climate change footprint, identification of rainfall and temperature trend at regional and local scale is helpful for designing long-term adaptation and mitigation strategies. The present study therefore aims to assess evidences of climate change presences in terms of, climate variability and trend in the wettest parts of Southwest Ethiopia. Daily and monthly historical gridded rainfall and temperature data (1983-2016) of ten stations were provided by Ethiopian National Metrological Agency. Moreover, long years historical recorded climate data of Nekemte and Bedele (1971-2020) and Sekoru (1981-2020) were used in the present study. Coefficient of variation, the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test and Sen's slope estimator, linear regression analysis and the precipitation concentration index were applied to detect the presence of climate change in the southwest parts of Ethiopia. In this study, the trend package of open R software employed for trend identification and rate of change per year. The results indicate that the annual rainfall has declining trend at five stations with statistically significant at one station while the mean maximum and minimum temperature shows a statistically significant increasing trend at eight and six stations, respectively. At a seasonal scale, the amount of rainfall in the main rainy season (June to August) is dominated by a downward trend (eight out of ten stations) while, the autumn season (September to November) shows an increasing trend in all stations with statistically significant at one station. The precipitation concentration index analysis revealed that inconsistent and significantly irregular precipitation is observed at six stations (60%) of the ten stations. This study concludes that the climate of the wettest parts of Ethiopia is getting warmer and the amount of rainfall in the main rainy season has declined in the vast majority of the study area.}, }
@article {pmid34610263, year = {2021}, author = {Gregorio de Souza, J and Noelli, FS and Madella, M}, title = {Reassessing the role of climate change in the Tupi expansion (South America, 5000-500 BP).}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society, Interface}, volume = {18}, number = {183}, pages = {20210499}, pmid = {34610263}, issn = {1742-5662}, mesh = {*Archaeology ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Linguistics ; South America ; }, abstract = {The expansion of forest farmers across tropical lowland South America during the Late Holocene has long been connected to climate change. The more humid conditions established during the Late Holocene are assumed to have driven the expansion of forests, which would have facilitated the dispersal of cultures that practised agroforestry. The Tupi, a language family of widespread distribution in South America, occupies a central place in the debate. Not only are they one of the largest families in the continent, but their expansion from an Amazonian homeland has long been hypothesized to have followed forested environments wherever they settled. Here, we assess that hypothesis using a simulation approach. We employ equation-based and cellular automaton models, simulating demic-diffusion processes under two different scenarios: a null model in which all land cells can be equally settled, and an alternative model in which non-forested cells cannot be settled or delay the expansion. We show that including land cover as a constraint to movement results in a better approximation of the Tupi expansion as reconstructed by archaeology and linguistics.}, }
@article {pmid34610253, year = {2021}, author = {Linck, EB and Freeman, BG and Cadena, CD and Ghalambor, CK}, title = {Evolutionary conservatism will limit responses to climate change in the tropics.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {17}, number = {10}, pages = {20210363}, pmid = {34610253}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; *Genetic Speciation ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Rapid species turnover in tropical mountains has fascinated biologists for centuries. A popular explanation for this heightened beta diversity is that climatic stability at low latitudes promotes the evolution of narrow thermal tolerance ranges, leading to local adaptation, evolutionary divergence and parapatric speciation along elevational gradients. However, an emerging consensus from research spanning phylogenetics, biogeography and behavioural ecology is that this process rarely, if ever, occurs. Instead, closely related species typically occupy a similar elevational niche, while species with divergent elevational niches tend to be more distantly related. These results suggest populations have responded to past environmental change not by adapting and diverging in place, but instead by shifting their distributions to tightly track climate over time. We argue that tropical species are likely to respond similarly to ongoing and future climate warming, an inference supported by evidence from recent range shifts. In the absence of widespread in situ adaptation to new climate regimes by tropical taxa, conservation planning should prioritize protecting large swaths of habitat to facilitate movement.}, }
@article {pmid34609254, year = {2021}, author = {Rao, ST}, title = {Introduction to Invited Papers on Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {71}, number = {10}, pages = {1185}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2021.1960102}, pmid = {34609254}, issn = {2162-2906}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid34609246, year = {2021}, author = {Lockhart, JS}, title = {The Good, Bad, and Ugly of Climate Change: A Timely Opportunity for Nursing Professional Development Practitioners.}, journal = {Journal of continuing education in nursing}, volume = {52}, number = {10}, pages = {447-448}, doi = {10.3928/00220124-20210913-01}, pmid = {34609246}, issn = {1938-2472}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Nurse Practitioners ; }, }
@article {pmid34607952, year = {2021}, author = {Raposeiro, PM and Hernández, A and Pla-Rabes, S and Gonçalves, V and Bao, R and Sáez, A and Shanahan, T and Benavente, M and de Boer, EJ and Richter, N and Gordon, V and Marques, H and Sousa, PM and Souto, M and Matias, MG and Aguiar, N and Pereira, C and Ritter, C and Rubio, MJ and Salcedo, M and Vázquez-Loureiro, D and Margalef, O and Amaral-Zettler, LA and Costa, AC and Huang, Y and van Leeuwen, JFN and Masqué, P and Prego, R and Ruiz-Fernández, AC and Sanchez-Cabeza, JA and Trigo, R and Giralt, S}, title = {Climate change facilitated the early colonization of the Azores Archipelago during medieval times.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {41}, pages = {}, pmid = {34607952}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Azores ; Climate Change ; Climate Models ; *Ecosystem ; *Environment ; Feces/chemistry ; *Human Activities ; *Human Migration ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Humans have made such dramatic and permanent changes to Earth's landscapes that much of it is now substantially and irreversibly altered from its preanthropogenic state. Remote islands, until recently isolated from humans, offer insights into how these landscapes evolved in response to human-induced perturbations. However, little is known about when and how remote systems were colonized because archaeological data and historical records are scarce and incomplete. Here, we use a multiproxy approach to reconstruct the initial colonization and subsequent environmental impacts on the Azores Archipelago. Our reconstructions provide unambiguous evidence for widespread human disturbance of this archipelago starting between 700-60[+50] and 850-60[+60] Common Era (CE), ca. 700 y earlier than historical records suggest the onset of Portuguese settlement of the islands. Settlement proceeded in three phases, during which human pressure on the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems grew steadily (i.e., through livestock introductions, logging, and fire), resulting in irreversible changes. Our climate models suggest that the initial colonization at the end of the early Middle Ages (500 to 900 CE) occurred in conjunction with anomalous northeasterly winds and warmer Northern Hemisphere temperatures. These climate conditions likely inhibited exploration from southern Europe and facilitated human settlers from the northeast Atlantic. These results are consistent with recent archaeological and genetic data suggesting that the Norse were most likely the earliest settlers on the islands.}, }
@article {pmid34607664, year = {2021}, author = {Cao, X and Huo, S and Zhang, H and Zheng, J and He, Z and Ma, C and Song, S}, title = {Source emissions and climate change impacts on the multimedia transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants, Chaohu watershed, eastern China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {109}, number = {}, pages = {15-25}, doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2021.02.028}, pmid = {34607664}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Multimedia ; Persistent Organic Pollutants ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Emission intensity and climate change control the transport flux and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in multiple environmental compartments. This study applied a multimedia model (BETR model) to explore alternations in the spatio-temporal trends of concentrations and transport flux of benzopyrene (BaP), phenanthrene (Phe), perfluorooctane sulfonates (PFOS) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the Chaohu watershed, located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China in response to changes in source emissions and climate. The potential historic and future risks of these pollutants also were assessed. The results suggest that current trends in concentrations and transport were similar to that of their emissions between 2005 and 2018. During the next 100 years, temporal trends and spatial patterns were not predicted to change significantly, which is consistent with climate change. Based on sensitivity and correlation analyses, climate change had significant effects on multi-media concentrations and transport fluxes of BaP, Phe, PFOS and PCBs, and rainfall intensity was the predominant controlling factor. Risk quotients (RQs) of BaP and Phe-in soil increased from 0.42 to 0.95 and 0.06 to 0.35, respectively, from 2005 to 2090, indicating potential risks. The RQs of the other examined contaminants exhibited little potential risk in soil, water, or sediment. Based on spatial patterns, it was inferred that the ecosystem around Lake Chaohu is the most at risk. The study provides insights needed for local pollution control of POPs in the Chaohu watershed. In addition, the developed approach can be applied to other watersheds world-wide.}, }
@article {pmid34607354, year = {2022}, author = {Semba, RD and Askari, S and Gibson, S and Bloem, MW and Kraemer, K}, title = {The Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Micronutrient-Rich Food Supply.}, journal = {Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {80-100}, pmid = {34607354}, issn = {2156-5376}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Ecosystem ; Food Supply ; Food, Fortified ; Humans ; *Micronutrients/analysis ; }, abstract = {Micronutrient deficiencies are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries worldwide. Climate change, characterized by increasing global surface temperatures and alterations in rainfall, has the capacity to affect the quality and accessibility of micronutrient-rich foods. The goals of this review are to summarize the potential effects of climate change and its consequences on agricultural yield and micronutrient quality, primarily zinc, iron, and vitamin A, of plant foods and upon the availability of animal foods, to discuss the implications for micronutrient deficiencies in the future, and to present possible mitigation and adaptive strategies. In general, the combination of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and rising temperature is predicted to reduce the overall yield of major staple crops, fruits, vegetables, and nuts, more than altering their micronutrient content. Crop yield is also reduced by elevated ground-level ozone and increased extreme weather events. Pollinator loss is expected to reduce the yield of many pollinator-dependent crops such as fruits, vegetables, and nuts. Sea-level rise resulting from melting of ice sheets and glaciers is predicted to result in coastal inundation, salt intrusion, and loss of coral reefs and mangrove forests, with an adverse impact upon coastal rice production and coastal fisheries. Global ocean fisheries catch is predicted to decline because of ocean warming and declining oxygen. Freshwater warming is also expected to alter ecosystems and reduce inland fisheries catch. In addition to limiting greenhouse gas production, adaptive strategies include postharvest fortification of foods; micronutrient supplementation; biofortification of staple crops with zinc and iron; plant breeding or genetic approaches to increase zinc, iron, and provitamin A carotenoid content of plant foods; and developing staple crops that are tolerant of abiotic stressors such as elevated carbon dioxide, elevated temperature, and increased soil salinity.}, }
@article {pmid34606498, year = {2021}, author = {Lavender, E and Fox, CJ and Burrows, MT}, title = {Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {e0258184}, pmid = {34606498}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Internationality ; Normal Distribution ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; *Water ; }, abstract = {Understanding and predicting the response of marine communities to climate change at large spatial scales, and distilling this information for policymakers, are prerequisites for ecosystem-based management. Changes in thermal habitat suitability across species' distributions are especially concerning because of their implications for abundance, affecting species' conservation, trophic interactions and fisheries. However, most predictive studies of the effects of climate change have tended to be sub-global in scale and focused on shifts in species' range edges or commercially exploited species. Here, we develop a widely applicable methodology based on climate response curves to predict global-scale changes in thermal habitat suitability. We apply the approach across the distributions of 2,293 shallow-water fish species under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 by 2050-2100. We find a clear pattern of predicted declines in thermal habitat suitability in the tropics versus general increases at higher latitudes. The Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean and western Africa emerge as the areas of most concern, where high species richness and the strongest declines in thermal habitat suitability coincide. This reflects a pattern of consistently narrow thermal ranges, with most species in these regions already exposed to temperatures above inferred thermal optima. In contrast, in temperate regions, such as northern Europe, where most species live below thermal optima and thermal ranges are wider, positive changes in thermal habitat suitability suggest that these areas are likely to emerge as the greatest beneficiaries of climate change, despite strong predicted temperature increases.}, }
@article {pmid34606086, year = {2022}, author = {Coni, EOC and Booth, DJ and Ferreira, CM and Nagelkerken, I}, title = {Behavioural generalism could facilitate coexistence of tropical and temperate fishes under climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {1}, pages = {86-100}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13599}, pmid = {34606086}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/physiology ; Phenotype ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Coral-reef fishes are shifting their distributions poleward in response to human-mediated ocean warming; yet, the consequences for recipient temperate fish communities remain poorly understood. Behavioural modification is often the first response of species to environmental change, but we know little about how this might shape the ongoing colonisation by tropical fishes of temperate-latitude ecosystems under climate change. In a global hotspot of ocean warming (southeast Australia), we quantified 14 behavioural traits of invading tropical and local co-occurring temperate fishes at 10 sites across a 730 km latitudinal gradient as a proxy of species behavioural niche space in different climate ranges (subtropical, warm-temperate and cold-temperate). We found that tropical fishes (four species) modified their behavioural niches as well as increased their overall behavioural niche breadth in their novel temperate ranges where temperate species predominate, but maintained a moderate to high niche segregation with native temperate species across latitudinal range position. Temperate species (three co-occurring species) also modified their niches, but in contrast to tropical species, experienced an increased niche breadth towards subtropical ranges. Alterations to feeding and shoaling behaviours contributed most to niche modifications in tropical and temperate species, while behaviours related to alertness and escape from potential threats contributed least. We here show that at warmer and colder range edges where community structures are being reshuffled due to climate change, behavioural generalism and niche modification are potential mechanisms adopted by tropical range extenders and native temperate fishes to adjust to novel species interactions under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34603904, year = {2021}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Sima, M and Sharifi, A and Luetz, JM and Salvia, AL and Mifsud, M and Olooto, FM and Djekic, I and Anholon, R and Rampasso, I and Kwabena Donkor, F and Dinis, MAP and Klavins, M and Finnveden, G and Chari, MM and Molthan-Hill, P and Mifsud, A and Sen, SK and Lokupitiya, E}, title = {Handling climate change education at universities: an overview.}, journal = {Environmental sciences Europe}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {109}, pmid = {34603904}, issn = {2190-4707}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a problem which is global in nature, and whose effects go across a wide range of disciplines. It is therefore important that this theme is taken into account as part of universities´ teaching and research programs.<br><br>METHODS: A three-tiered approach was used, consisting of a bibliometric analysis, an online survey and a set of case studies, which allow a profile to be built, as to how a sample of universities from 45 countries handle climate change as part of their teaching programs.<br><br>RESULTS: This paper reports on a study which aimed at identifying the extent to which matters related to climate change are addressed within the teaching and research practices at universities, with a focus on the training needs of teaching staff. It consists of a bibliometric analysis, combined with an online worldwide survey aimed at ascertaining the degree of involvement from universities in reducing their own carbon footprint, and the ways they offer training provisions on the topic. This is complemented by a set of 12 case studies from universities round the world, illustrating current trends on how universities handle climate change. Apart from reporting on the outcomes of the study, the paper highlights what some universities are doing to handle climate issues, and discusses the implications of the research.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The paper lists some items via which universities may better educate and train their students on how to handle the many challenges posed by climate change.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12302-021-00552-5.}, }
@article {pmid34602852, year = {2022}, author = {Khan, MK and Trinh, HH and Khan, IU and Ullah, S}, title = {Sustainable economic activities, climate change, and carbon risk: an international evidence.}, journal = {Environment, development and sustainability}, volume = {24}, number = {7}, pages = {9642-9664}, pmid = {34602852}, issn = {1573-2975}, abstract = {The employment of renewable resources and their association with the real economy's growth in mitigating the problem of carbon emission risk has been debated in the literature in a specific group of countries and regions. However, their relations and effects for a better sustainable energy transmission would need further research works in an international context. Motivated by that reason, this study contributes to the ongoing literature by revisiting the effects of renewable energy consumption, electricity output, and economic activities on carbon risk using a global sample of 219 countries over the period of 1990-2020. Using GMM estimation, simultaneous quantile, and panel quantile estimations; the study finds supportive findings showing that the higher the countries with renewable energy consumption and electricity output the better the capacity those countries can mitigate the environmental degradation by reducing the amount of total carbon emission over time. However, those relations are changed when using system GMM approaches, implying the role of FDI inflows and the difference in income groups in the selected sample countries. This can be intuitively explained that emerging countries might give more priority to the economic growth receiving FDI inflows from more advanced economies and balancing the trade-off between economic growth and environmental protection, while the developed economies with their advantages in green technologies and financial flexibility might have higher advantages in acquiring a sustainable transition and maintaining the real economy's growth without significant trade-off concerns. Finally, the study provides important policy implications and avenues for further research.}, }
@article {pmid34602701, year = {2021}, author = {Kassam, KA and Ruelle, M and Haag, I and Bulbulshoev, U and Kaziev, D and Louis, L and Ullmann, A and Edwards, I and Khan, AA and Trabucco, A and Samimi, C}, title = {Engaging Transformation: Using Seasonal Rounds to Anticipate Climate Change.}, journal = {Human ecology: an interdisciplinary journal}, volume = {49}, number = {5}, pages = {509-523}, pmid = {34602701}, issn = {0300-7839}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Seasonal rounds are deliberative articulations of a community's sociocultural relations with their ecological system. The process of visualizing seasonal rounds informs transdisciplinary research. We present a methodological approach for communities of enquiry to engage communities of practice through context-specific sociocultural and ecological relations driven by seasonal change. We first discuss historical précis of the concept of seasonal rounds that we apply to assess the spatial and temporal communal migrations and then describe current international research among Indigenous and rural communities in North America and Central Asia by the creation of a common vocabulary through mutual respect for multiple ways of knowing, validation of co-generated knowledge, and insights into seasonal change. By investigating the relationship between specific biophysical indicators and livelihoods of local communities, we demonstrate that seasonal rounds are an inclusive and participatory methodology that brings together diverse Indigenous and rural voices to anticipate anthropogenic climate change.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10745-021-00269-2.}, }
@article {pmid34602024, year = {2022}, author = {Charnley, GEC and Kelman, I and Murray, KA}, title = {Drought-related cholera outbreaks in Africa and the implications for climate change: a narrative review.}, journal = {Pathogens and global health}, volume = {116}, number = {1}, pages = {3-12}, pmid = {34602024}, issn = {2047-7732}, support = {MR/R015600/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; *Cholera/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Droughts ; Humans ; Water ; }, abstract = {Africa has historically seen several periods of prolonged and extreme droughts across the continent, causing food insecurity, exacerbating social inequity and frequent mortality. A known consequence of droughts and their associated risk factors are infectious disease outbreaks, which are worsened by malnutrition, poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene and population displacement. Cholera is a potential causative agent of such outbreaks. Africa has the highest global cholera burden, several drought-prone regions and high levels of inequity. Despite this, research on cholera and drought in Africa is lacking. Here, we review available research on drought-related cholera outbreaks in Africa and identify a variety of potential mechanisms through which these outbreaks occurred, including poor access to water, marginalization of refugees and nomadic populations, expansion of informal urban settlements and demographic risks. Future climate change may alter precipitation, temperature and drought patterns, resulting in more extremes, although these changes are likely to be spatially heterogeneous. Despite high uncertainty in future drought projections, increases in drought frequency and/or durations have the potential to alter these related outbreaks into the future, potentially increasing cholera burden in the absence of countermeasures (e.g. improved sanitation infrastructure). To enable effective planning for a potentially more drought-prone Africa, inequity must be addressed, research on the health implications of drought should be enhanced, and better drought diplomacy is required to improve drought resilience under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34601632, year = {2021}, author = {El-Sayed, AM and Ganji, S and Gross, J and Giesen, N and Rid, M and Lo, PL and Kokeny, A and Unelius, CR}, title = {Climate change risk to pheromone application in pest management.}, journal = {Die Naturwissenschaften}, volume = {108}, number = {6}, pages = {47}, pmid = {34601632}, issn = {1432-1904}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Male ; *Moths ; Pest Control ; Pheromones/pharmacology ; *Sex Attractants/pharmacology ; }, abstract = {Since of the first sex pheromone and the adoption of pheromone in pest management, the global pheromone market size has grown to reach USD 2.4 billion per year in 2019. This has enabled the development of environmentally friendly approaches that significantly reduce the application of pesticides. Recently, there have been reports of the failure of various commercial codlemone: (E,E)-8,10-dodecadien-1-ol formulations used for monitoring the apple pest codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.). This work was initiated to investigate factors behind the lack of efficacy of codlemone lure in the Northern Hemisphere (Germany) and Southern Hemisphere (New Zealand). We hypothesised that the observed failure could be due to two main factors: (a) a shift in the response of male codling moth to codlemone and (b) degradation of codlemone under field conditions that renders the lure less attractive. Field trial tests of various doses and blends containing minor pheromone compounds suggested no change in response of male codling moth. The addition of an antioxidant and a UV stabiliser to codlemone resulted in a significant increase in the number of males caught in Germany, but not in New Zealand. Mean maximum temperatures during the growing season since 2004 indicate a 3 °C increase to 35 °C in Germany, but just a 1.5 °C rise to 30 °C in New Zealand. Chemical analysis of the lures used in the field trials in Germany and New Zealand indicated more degradation products and reduced half-life of the lures in Germany compared with those in New Zealand. Heating codlemone lures to 32 °C significantly reduced the number of males caught in traps and increased the isomeric and chemical impurities of codlemone compared with unheated lures. Our data provide the first evidence that climate change affects pheromone molecule stability, thus reducing its biological efficacy. Our finding suggests that climate change could be a general problem for chemical communication and, therefore, could affect the integrity of natural ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid34601359, year = {2021}, author = {Qian, SS and Kennen, JG and May, J and Freeman, MC and Cuffney, TF}, title = {Evaluating the impact of watershed development and climate change on stream ecosystems: A Bayesian network modeling approach.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {205}, number = {}, pages = {117685}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2021.117685}, pmid = {34601359}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {A continuous-variable Bayesian network (cBN) model is used to link watershed development and climate change to stream ecosystem indicators. A graphical model, reflecting our understanding of the connections between climate change, weather condition, loss of natural land cover, stream flow characteristics, and stream ecosystem indicators is used as the basis for selecting flow metrics for predicting macroinvertebrate-based indicators. Selected flow metrics were then linked to variables representing watershed development and climate change. We fit the model to data from two river basins in southeast US and the resulting model was used to simulate future stream ecological conditions using projected future climate and development scenarios. The three climate models predicted varying ecological condition trajectories, but similar worst-case ecological conditions. The established modeling approach couples mechanistic understanding with field data to develop predictions of management-relevant variables across a heterogeneous landscape. We discussed the transferability of the modeling approach.}, }
@article {pmid34600983, year = {2022}, author = {Ashrafi, S and Kerachian, R and Pourmoghim, P and Behboudian, M and Motlaghzadeh, K}, title = {Evaluating and improving the sustainability of ecosystem services in river basins under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {806}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {150702}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150702}, pmid = {34600983}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Lakes ; *Rivers ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {This paper presents a new framework for evaluating the sustainability of basin-wide ecosystem services (ESs) including provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural services. In this framework, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODSIM[1] models and experts' opinions are used to evaluate the ESs. To show the applicability of the proposed framework, it is applied to the Zarrinehrud river basin under three different climate change (CC) scenarios (i.e., RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for two different time horizons (i.e., 2020-2049 and 2020-2098). This basin is the main water supplier of the largest hypersaline lake in the Middle East, Lake Urmia. In the next step, 128 water resources management (WRM) scenarios are taken into account considering the projects defined by Urmia Lake Restoration National Committee (ULRNC). All ecosystem services are evaluated considering all WRM and CC scenarios. Finally, a group COPRAS-based decision-making approach is used to determine the best WRM scenario under climate change. The results show that WRM scenario 128 is the best scenario for improving ecosystem services in the study area. This scenario includes some projects such as allocating water to the lake from new resources, rehabilitating irrigation and draining networks, and improving cropping patterns.}, }
@article {pmid34600426, year = {2022}, author = {Mansoor, S and Farooq, I and Kachroo, MM and Mahmoud, AED and Fawzy, M and Popescu, SM and Alyemeni, MN and Sonne, C and Rinklebe, J and Ahmad, P}, title = {Elevation in wildfire frequencies with respect to the climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {301}, number = {}, pages = {113769}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113769}, pmid = {34600426}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Fires ; Forests ; Humans ; Trees ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Forests have been undergoing through immense pressure due to the factors like human activities; procurement of forest products and climate change which is a major factor influencing this pressure buildup on forests. Climate change and temperature increase caused by anthropogenic activities have notably affected forests and wildlife on a global scale. High temperature increases the soil-water evaporation, resulting in drier soils, and water loss in forest flora. The incidence of forest fires has doubled since 1984 and these are linked to global warming. Drought influences fuel moisture by bringing about physiological changes in forest vegetation leading to forest fires. Forest resilience is hampered because of temperature and drought stress at the developing stage of plant's life cycle leading to the shift in plant species in those areas. Forest fire incidences can be managed with proper management strategies such as sustainable, community and urban forest management. A careful monitoring of stress precursors, subsistence uses of forests, ecological education and planting of near native and new indigenous plant species are the tools that can aid in efficient forest management.}, }
@article {pmid34600422, year = {2022}, author = {Bethel, MB and Braud, DH and Lambeth, T and Dardar, DS and Ferguson-Bohnee, P}, title = {Mapping risk factors to climate change impacts using traditional ecological knowledge to support adaptation planning with a Native American Tribe in Louisiana.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {301}, number = {}, pages = {113801}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113801}, pmid = {34600422}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; American Indian or Alaska Native ; }, abstract = {Indigenous communities are often on the front-lines of climate change, and for tribes such as the Pointe-au-Chien Indian Tribe (PACIT) that make their homes and livelihoods in the dynamic landscapes of Coastal Louisiana (USA), sea-level rise, subsidence, and land loss are very real reminders of why they must continue to hone their adaptive capacity that has evolved over many generations and continues to evolve as the pace of change quickens. PACIT members have an inherited wisdom about their surrounding environment and continue to build on that body of observational knowledge that is passed from generation to generation to sustain themselves in this dynamic landscape. This knowledge is woven through their culture and is sometimes referred to as traditional ecological knowledge (TEK). The PACIT and other Indigenous communities around the world are using creative strategies to adapt to the impacts of climate change that include partnering with researchers to combine their TEK with science in approaches to enhance strategies dealing with climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation. Tribes and other Indigenous communities often have a strong connection to place that helps to inspire innovative ideas to promote greater sustainability of vulnerable ecosystems and the communities that depend on them, but not the institutional support to implement them. Overcoming this barrier requires a better understanding of their perception of the issues and what they prioritize in sustaining their cultures and the ecosystems on which they depend. Better inclusion of their knowledge into applied research is necessary to support these communities in their efforts to make sure their knowledge is recognized, understood, and valued in environmental management applications. The primary goal for this study was to develop a decision-support tool that aids the PACIT in assessing local ecological change and associated risks to the Tribe's resilience. Using remote sensing datasets and geographic information systems (GIS) processes to represent aspects of the Tribe's TEK to achieve this goal, we developed methods for producing interactive maps that reflect local perceptions of landscape features within the Tribe's ecosystem-dependent livelihood base that contribute most to the community's physical vulnerability to coastal hazards. This case study is offered to consider how Indigenous communities like the PACIT are shaping their own coastal hazards mitigation planning efforts in line with their unique needs, cultural practices, and values. The results of this study can provide relevant insight to applied environmental scientists and others working with Indigenous communities that are facing similar circumstances around the world.}, }
@article {pmid34599448, year = {2022}, author = {Shang, J and Zhang, Y and Peng, Y and Huang, Y and Zhu, L and Wu, Z and Wang, J and Cui, Y}, title = {Climate change drives NDVI variations at multiple spatiotemporal levels rather than human disturbance in Northwest China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {13782-13796}, pmid = {34599448}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2017YFC0505606//The National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Humans ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Changes in land management and climate alter vegetation dynamics; however, the factors driving vegetation changes remain elusive at multiple spatiotemporal levels. Here, we assess the drivers of changes in greenness from 2000 to 2015 in Northwest China (NW China). We used multiple stepwise linear regression (MSLR), redundancy analysis (RDA), and 12 other models to quantify the impacts of precipitation and temperature metrics, gross domestic product (GDP), population, and grazing intensity on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at three administrative levels (county, town, and village), four temporal levels (yearly, May, July, and September), two vegetation types (woodland and grassland), and at annual precipitation gradients of <200, 200-400, and >400 mm. The results suggest that NW China underwent vegetation greening from 2000 to 2015. Precipitation and temperature were the most influential factors contributing to the NDVI change. Population was the main determinant of NDVI under the precipitation gradient of <200 mm, and the effect of GDP on NDVI was moderate. On the temporal scale, annual precipitation, precipitation before the previous year, and precipitation in the current year determined the NDVI in May, July, and September, respectively, for both woodland and grassland. At multiple scales, climate change was the primary driver of vegetation change in NW China, rather than human disturbance. These findings expand our understanding on drivers of NDVI at multiple levels over a long period. Measures to manage decreasing vegetation coverage may be more effective and could be implemented sooner based on predicted climate change in drylands worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid34598706, year = {2021}, author = {Ebi, KL}, title = {Environmental health research needed to inform strategies, policies, and measures to manage the risks of anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {109}, pmid = {34598706}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; Policy ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is affecting population health and wellbeing worldwide. The two main policy options to prepare for and manage these risks are adaptation and mitigation; significantly increased investments in each are urgently needed. However, medical research councils worldwide have provided minuscule amounts of funding for environmental health research to provide timely and useful insights on effectively protecting vulnerable populations and regions, for building climate-resilient health systems, and for promoting health system-related greenhouse gas emission reductions in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid34597559, year = {2022}, author = {Maruffi, L and Stucchi, L and Casale, F and Bocchiola, D}, title = {Soil erosion and sediment transport under climate change for Mera River, in Italian Alps of Valchiavenna.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {806}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {150651}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150651}, pmid = {34597559}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Rivers ; Soil ; Soil Erosion ; }, abstract = {Erosion is a main form of soil degradation, with severe consequences on slope stability and productivity, and erosion studies are required to predict possible variations of such phenomena, also under climate change scenarios. Here we estimated distributed soil erosion within Valchiavenna valley in the Rhaetian Alps, drained by Mera river, and covering Italy, and Switzerland. We used a Dynamic-RUSLE (D-RUSLE) model, which provides spatially distributed estimates of soil erosion explicitly considering snow dynamic (accumulation/melting) and snow cover, and vegetation seasonality. The model was tuned here during 2010-2019, and validation was pursued using river turbidity data, used to assess riverine sediment transport. The model parameter R-factor for rainfall erosivity was estimated using a hydrological model Poli-Hydro, properly set up in the study area. C-factor for land cover was assessed against land cover maps, with seasonally variable Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from satellite images, to account for variable vegetation stage, and large leaf cover in summer. The K-factor related to erosion susceptibility was evaluated through soil texture and organic content. LS-factor depending on slope was assessed using a DTM. Poli-Hydro and D-RUSLE models were then used to project forward potential soil erosion under climate change scenarios until 2100. Climate series (temperature, precipitation) were generated using 4 shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) of the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, with 3 global circulation models, properly downscaled locally. We analysed expected soil erosion during 2051-2060, and 2091-2100. We found increase of potential soil erosion, with exception of the EC-Earth model for the SSP2.6. Erosion would especially increase in winter, in response to smaller snow accumulation, and larger liquid rainfall share thereby, and decrease in summer, as due to decreased precipitation. Our results suggest the need for adaptation strategies to counteract increasing soil loss in the future, and may highlight most critical areas of intervention.}, }
@article {pmid34597142, year = {2021}, author = {Cheung, WWL and Frölicher, TL and Lam, VWY and Oyinlola, MA and Reygondeau, G and Sumaila, UR and Tai, TC and Teh, LCL and Wabnitz, CCC}, title = {Marine high temperature extremes amplify the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {7}, number = {40}, pages = {eabh0895}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.abh0895}, pmid = {34597142}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Extreme temperature events have occurred in all ocean basins in the past two decades with detrimental impacts on marine biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services. However, global impacts of temperature extremes on fish stocks, fisheries, and dependent people have not been quantified. Using an integrated climate-biodiversity-fisheries-economic impact model, we project that, on average, when an annual high temperature extreme occurs in an exclusive economic zone, 77% of exploited fishes and invertebrates therein will decrease in biomass while maximum catch potential will drop by 6%, adding to the decadal-scale mean impacts under climate change. The net negative impacts of high temperature extremes on fish stocks are projected to cause losses in fisheries revenues and livelihoods in most maritime countries, creating shocks to fisheries social-ecological systems particularly in climate-vulnerable areas. Our study highlights the need for rapid adaptation responses to extreme temperatures in addition to carbon mitigation to support sustainable ocean development.}, }
@article {pmid34594922, year = {2021}, author = {Huang, J and Tian, H and Wang, J and Yang, T and Peng, Y and Wu, S and Fu, TM and Li, G}, title = {A Modelling Study on PM2.5-Related Health Impacts from Climate Change and Air Pollution Emission Control - China, 2010s and 2040s.}, journal = {China CDC weekly}, volume = {3}, number = {23}, pages = {500-506}, pmid = {34594922}, issn = {2096-7071}, abstract = {What is already known about this topic? Climate change and air pollution are two important environmental issues in China. It is important to investigate particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5)-related health impacts from climate change and air pollution emission control. What is added by this report? Deaths and years of life lost related to PM2.5 would increase in climate change scenario, although emission control would outweigh the influence of climate change. What are the implications for public health practice? More targeted actions should be taken to meet challenges of exacerbated PM2.5 pollutions and its health impacts related to climate change in the future.}, }
@article {pmid34594918, year = {2021}, author = {Kan, H}, title = {Climate Change, Weather Conditions, and Population Health.}, journal = {China CDC weekly}, volume = {3}, number = {23}, pages = {483-484}, pmid = {34594918}, issn = {2096-7071}, }
@article {pmid34594538, year = {2021}, author = {Long, T and Tang, J and Pilfold, NW and Zhao, X and Dong, T}, title = {Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {18}, pages = {12779-12789}, pmid = {34594538}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Understanding and predicting how species will respond to climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed future climate change impacts on the distribution of a rare and endangered plant species, Davidia involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one-third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high-latitude regions. Similarly, at least one-fifth of the overlap area of the current nature reserve networks and projected suitable habitat is also expected to be lost. These findings suggest that it is of great importance to ensure that adaptive conservation management strategies are in place to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.}, }
@article {pmid34594022, year = {2021}, author = {Klopper, A}, title = {Delayed global warming could reduce human exposure to cyclones.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {598}, number = {7879}, pages = {35}, pmid = {34594022}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Cyclonic Storms/*prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid34593969, year = {2021}, author = {Gutierrez, AP and Ponti, L and Neteler, M and Suckling, DM and Cure, JR}, title = {Invasive potential of tropical fruit flies in temperate regions under climate change.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {1141}, pmid = {34593969}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Central America ; *Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; Mediterranean Region ; North America ; Species Specificity ; *Tephritidae ; United States ; }, abstract = {Tropical fruit flies are considered among the most economically important invasive species detected in temperate areas of the United States and the European Union. Detections often trigger quarantine and eradication programs that are conducted without a holistic understanding of the threat posed. Weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models are used to estimate the geographic range, relative abundance, and threat posed by four tropical tephritid fruit flies (Mediterranean fruit fly, melon fly, oriental fruit fly, and Mexican fruit fly) in North and Central America, and the European-Mediterranean region under extant and climate change weather (RCP8.5 and A1B scenarios). Most temperate areas under tropical fruit fly propagule pressure have not been suitable for establishment, but suitability is predicted to increase in some areas with climate change. To meet this ongoing challenge, investments are needed to collect sound biological data to develop mechanistic models to predict the geographic range and relative abundance of these and other invasive species, and to put eradication policies on a scientific basis.}, }
@article {pmid34593509, year = {2021}, author = {Austen, J}, title = {Human population growth is the root cause of climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {374}, number = {}, pages = {n2386}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.n2386}, pmid = {34593509}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; }, }
@article {pmid34593387, year = {2021}, author = {Lawson, E}, title = {Climate Change Action and Individual Responsibility.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {71}, number = {711}, pages = {435}, doi = {10.3399/bjgp21X717377}, pmid = {34593387}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Social Behavior ; }, }
@article {pmid34592301, year = {2022}, author = {Martinez, A and Iglesias, G}, title = {Climate change impacts on wind energy resources in North America based on the CMIP6 projections.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {806}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {150580}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150580}, pmid = {34592301}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Texas ; *Wind ; }, abstract = {The mid- and long-term evolution of wind energy resources in North America is investigated by means of a multi-model ensemble selected from 18 global climate models. The most recent scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions and land use, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), are considered - more specifically, the SSP5-8.5 (intensive emissions) and SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions). In both scenarios, onshore wind power density in the US and Canada is predicted to drop. Under SSP5-8.5, the reduction is of the order of 15% overall, reaching as much as 40% in certain northern regions - Quebec and Nunavut in Canada and Alaska in the US. Conversely, significant increases in wind power density are predicted in Hudson Bay (up to 25%), Texas and northern Mexico (up to 15%), southern Mexico and Central America (up to 30%). As for the intra-annual variability, it is poised to rise drastically, with monthly average wind power densities increasing up to 120% in certain months and decreasing up to 60% in others. These changes in both the mean value and the intra-annual variability of wind power density are of consequence for the Levelised Cost of Energy from wind, the planning of future investments and, more generally, the contribution of wind to the energy mix.}, }
@article {pmid34592296, year = {2022}, author = {Song, G and Zhao, X and Lv, L and Yuan, Q and Ma, Y and Bayer, LB and Zhang, D and Fullana-I-Palmer, P}, title = {Scenario analysis on optimal farmed-fish-species composition in China: A theoretical methodology to benefit wild-fishery stock, water conservation, economic and protein outputs under the context of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {806}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {150600}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150600}, pmid = {34592296}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Water Resources ; *Cyprinidae ; Fisheries ; }, abstract = {Fish production from aquaculture and wild captures suffers from the rising risk of climate change. This impacts the livelihoods of fishers and fish farmers by shrinking wild fishery stocks, inland water scarcity, and consequent declines in economic and protein productions. China, feeding the most fish of the world with water-intensive crops, faces challenges of water scarcity but still be premature in developing strategies to adapt to climate change. Here, focusing on methodology development, we quantified the water footprint of fish-farming and economic and protein productions in the baseline year 2014. Then, 29 scenarios of farmed-fish-species composition (FFSC, i.e., tons of each farmed fish species) were developed for the target year 2020. The baseline 2014 shows that fish farming generates an average of 150 billion m[3] of water footprint, 4.70 million tons of protein, and 263 billion RMB of economic output (~39 billion USD). Uncertainty optimizations were conducted to generate the optimal FFSC solutions that show a potential to increase fish production by 22%, economic and protein output by 18% and 29%, respectively and simultaneously lower water footprint by 22% to the maximum extent. Nine scenarios that lower wild fishery captures were further examined, with optimal FFSC solution that encourages aquaculture of Grass carp, Bighead Carp, and Silver Carp, and discourages Black carp, Tilapia, Crucian carp, Sea bass, and Wuchang bream. From a methodology aspect, this study pulls back policymakers from only focusing on the short-term economic interest of fish-farming and persuades them to rethink long-term adaptive strategies to climate change from multiple sustainable dimensions.}, }
@article {pmid34592288, year = {2022}, author = {Yang, S and Wang, X and Hu, J}, title = {Mountain frog species losing out to climate change around the Sichuan Basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {806}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {150605}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150605}, pmid = {34592288}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Anura ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Refugium ; }, abstract = {Amphibians are particularly vulnerable to climate changes that are expected to cause habitat fragmentation and loss and, ultimately, local extirpations. However, little is known about how the interaction between climate change and fragmentation may impede the ability of amphibians to adapt to climate change. Here, we used the iconic mountain frog Quasipaa boulengeri as an indicator species to extrapolate climate-driven shifts in its habitat availability and connectivity in central and southern China according to the minimum and maximum representative concentration pathways. The models projected an average habitat loss of 36%-71% and the in situ and ex situ climate-change refugia to be 29%-64% and 5%-18% of the present-day suitable habitats, respectively. An increase in habitat fragmentation was reflected in a 51% decrease in core patch size, a 9% increase in the mean least-cost path (LCP) length, and a 19% increase in the cost-weighted distance. These climate-driven shifts varied spatially around the Sichuan Basin, with those in the southeast of the Basin being the most pronounced habitat and connectivity losses and those along the Basin being relatively optimistic. The effectiveness of refugia may only be maintained through a narrow passageway along the southern Sichuan Basin because of the presence of LCPs over time. Our results emphasize the need to understand how climate change and connectivity will jointly affect the distribution of mountain amphibians and to accordingly adopt conservation strategies. Further, our findings highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate-change refugia and habitat connectivity for species persistence and conservation planning.}, }
@article {pmid34591893, year = {2021}, author = {Barteit, S and Boudo, V and Ouedraogo, A and Zabré, P and Ouremi, L and Sié, A and Munga, S and Obor, D and Kwaro, D and Huhn, S and Bunker, A and Sauerborn, R and Gunga, HC and Maggioni, MA and Bärnighausen, T}, title = {Feasibility, acceptability and validation of wearable devices for climate change and health research in the low-resource contexts of Burkina Faso and Kenya: Study protocol.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {e0257170}, pmid = {34591893}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Burkina Faso ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Feasibility Studies ; Female ; *Health ; *Health Resources ; Humans ; Kenya ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Research ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Wearable Electronic Devices ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {As the epidemiological transition progresses throughout sub-Saharan Africa, life lived with diseases is an increasingly important part of a population's burden of disease. The burden of disease of climate-sensitive health outcomes is projected to increase considerably within the next decades. Objectively measured, reliable population health data is still limited and is primarily based on perceived illness from recall. Technological advances like non-invasive, consumer-grade wearable devices may play a vital role in alleviating this data gap and in obtaining insights on the disease burden in vulnerable populations, such as heat stress on human cardiovascular response. The overall goal of this study is to investigate whether consumer-grade wearable devices are an acceptable, feasible and valid means to generate data on the individual level in low-resource contexts. Three hundred individuals are recruited from the two study locations in the Nouna health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS), Burkina Faso, and the Siaya HDSS, Kenya. Participants complete a structured questionnaire that comprises question items on acceptability and feasibility under the supervision of trained data collectors. Validity will be evaluated by comparing consumer-grade wearable devices to research-grade devices. Furthermore, we will collect demographic data as well as the data generated by wearable devices. This study will provide insights into the usage of consumer-grade wearable devices to measure individual vital signs in low-resource contexts, such as Burkina Faso and Kenya. Vital signs comprising activity (steps), sleep (duration, quality) and heart rate (hr) are important measures to gain insights on individual behavior and activity patterns in low-resource contexts. These vital signs may be associated with weather variables-as we gather them from weather stations that we have setup as part of this study to cover the whole Nouna and Siaya HDSSs-in order to explore changes in behavior and other variables, such as activity, sleep, hr, during extreme weather events like heat stress exposure. Furthermore, wearable data could be linked to health outcomes and weather events. As a result, consumer-grade wearables may serve as a supporting technology for generating reliable measurements in low-resource contexts and investigating key links between weather occurrences and health outcomes. Thus, wearable devices may provide insights to better inform mitigation and adaptation interventions in these low-resource settings that are direly faced by climate change-induced changes, such as extreme weather events.}, }
@article {pmid34591625, year = {2021}, author = {Reese, D}, title = {Survival strategies for a changing worldHurricane Lizards and Plastic Squid: The Fraught and Fascinating Biology of Climate Change Thor Hanson Basic Books, 2021. 304 pp.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {374}, number = {6563}, pages = {43}, doi = {10.1126/science.abk2461}, pmid = {34591625}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Traveling trees, color-changing owls, and gale-proof reptiles showcase nature’s adaptability.}, }
@article {pmid34587225, year = {2021}, author = {Naylor, AW and Ford, JD and Pearce, T and Fawcett, D and Clark, D and van Alstine, J}, title = {Monitoring the dynamic vulnerability of an Arctic subsistence food system to climate change: The case of Ulukhaktok, NT.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {e0258048}, pmid = {34587225}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; *Models, Anatomic ; Northwest Territories ; }, abstract = {Vulnerability to climate change is highly dynamic, varying between and within communities over different timescales. This paper draws upon complex adaptive systems thinking to develop an approach for capturing, understanding, and monitoring climate vulnerability in a case study from northern Canada, focusing on Inuit food systems. In the community of Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, we followed 10 hunters over a 2-year period, asking them to document their harvesting activities and discuss their lived experience of harvesting under changing environmental and societal conditions. GPS monitoring and participatory mapping sessions were used to document 23,996km of trails (n = 409), with conversational bi-weekly semi-structured interviews and secondary instrumental weather data used to contextualise climate change within a nexus of other socioeconomic, cultural, and political stressors that also affect harvesting. Our results demonstrate that climate change has considerable potential to affect harvesting activities, particularly when its impacts manifest as anomalous/extreme events. However, climate change impacts are not necessarily the most salient issues affecting harvesting on a day-to-day basis. Instead, factors relating to economics (particularly financial capital and the wage-based economy), social networks, and institutions are found to have a greater influence, either as standalone factors with cascading effects or when acting synchronously to augment the impacts of environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid34585355, year = {2022}, author = {Chandio, AA and Shah, MI and Sethi, N and Mushtaq, Z}, title = {Assessing the effect of climate change and financial development on agricultural production in ASEAN-4: the role of renewable energy, institutional quality, and human capital as moderators.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {9}, pages = {13211-13225}, pmid = {34585355}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Economic Development ; Humans ; Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {This paper examines the effect of climate change and financial development on agricultural production in ASEAN-4, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand from 1990 to 2016. Further, we explore the role of renewable energy, institutional quality, and human capital on agricultural production. Since the shocks in one country affect another country, we use second-generation modeling techniques to find out the relationship among the variables. The Westerlund (2007) cointegration tests confirm long-run relationship among the variables. The results from cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model reveal that climate change negatively affects agricultural production; on the other hand, renewable energy, human capital, and institutional quality affect positively agricultural production. Moreover, renewable energy utilization, human capital, and intuitional quality moderates the effect of carbon emission on agricultural production. In addition, a U-shaped relationship exists between financial development and agricultural production, suggesting that financial development improves agricultural production only after reaching a certain threshold. Hence, this study suggests that ASEAN-4 countries must adopt flexible financial and agricultural policies so that farmers would be benefitted and agricultural production can be increased.}, }
@article {pmid34585010, year = {2021}, author = {Jalal, MJE and Khan, MA and Hossain, ME and Yedla, S and Alam, GMM}, title = {Does climate change stimulate household vulnerability and income diversity? Evidence from southern coastal region of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {e07990}, pmid = {34585010}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Bangladesh is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries globally, where the livelihood of agro-based dependent people became vulnerable due to different natural hazards, especially in the southern coastal part. This study investigates the influence of climate change on household vulnerability and income diversity, data collected from the climate-vulnerable coastal areas of Bangladesh. Both panel data regression and structural equation model were employed to examine the vulnerability status, whereas income diversity was measured through diversity index and "Type-66" livelihood strategy. Results reveal that sources of income have diversified over time. However, the study also reveals that climate change-especially the increase in salinity has affected crop production, resulting in increased income vulnerability of small and marginal farmers who are highly reliant on farm income. Moreover, findings reveal that climate change has influenced households to diversify into low-income sources that do not help to overcome their income vulnerability. Therefore, a cooperative land management system, establishment of embankment, training, and skill development programs are needed to generate feasible alternative income sources to improve the livelihood of coastal people.}, }
@article {pmid34584397, year = {2021}, author = {Terent'ev, NE}, title = {Climate Change as a Factor in the Development of Companies: Corporate Strategies and Guidelines for State Industrial Policy.}, journal = {Studies on Russian economic development}, volume = {32}, number = {5}, pages = {485-491}, pmid = {34584397}, issn = {1075-7007}, abstract = {In recent years, the problem of global climate change has become one of the significant challenges for ensuring the sustainability of the functioning and growth in the market value of the world's leading industrial companies. Based on the latest data, the article describes the scale and impact of climate change on the development of companies and also considers some corporate strategies for reducing climate risks and adapting to the consequences of climate change. It is shown that, acting as a significant factor in the financial losses of business, the growing climate change, at the same time, indirectly contribute to the acceleration of the environmentally oriented transformation of corporate management systems and technological modernization of production complexes, creating, in conjunction with other technological and production trends, new sources of long-term competitiveness and market value. The article presents the characteristics of the priorities in the state industrial policy in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34583073, year = {2022}, author = {Ford, HV and Jones, NH and Davies, AJ and Godley, BJ and Jambeck, JR and Napper, IE and Suckling, CC and Williams, GJ and Woodall, LC and Koldewey, HJ}, title = {The fundamental links between climate change and marine plastic pollution.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {806}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {150392}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150392}, pmid = {34583073}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Plastics ; }, abstract = {Plastic pollution and climate change have commonly been treated as two separate issues and sometimes are even seen as competing. Here we present an alternative view that these two issues are fundamentally linked. Primarily, we explore how plastic contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the beginning to the end of its life cycle. Secondly, we show that more extreme weather and floods associated with climate change, will exacerbate the spread of plastic in the natural environment. Finally, both issues occur throughout the marine environment, and we show that ecosystems and species can be particularly vulnerable to both, such as coral reefs that face disease spread through plastic pollution and climate-driven increased global bleaching events. A Web of Science search showed climate change and plastic pollution studies in the ocean are often siloed, with only 0.4% of the articles examining both stressors simultaneously. We also identified a lack of regional and industry-specific life cycle analysis data for comparisons in relative GHG contributions by materials and products. Overall, we suggest that rather than debate over the relative importance of climate change or marine plastic pollution, a more productive course would be to determine the linking factors between the two and identify solutions to combat both crises.}, }
@article {pmid34582601, year = {2021}, author = {Regehr, EV and Runge, MC and Von Duyke, A and Wilson, RR and Polasek, L and Rode, KD and Hostetter, NJ and Converse, SJ}, title = {Demographic risk assessment for a harvested species threatened by climate change: polar bears in the Chukchi Sea.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {e02461}, pmid = {34582601}, issn = {1939-5582}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Female ; Ice Cover ; Male ; Risk Assessment ; *Ursidae/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens global biodiversity. Many species vulnerable to climate change are important to humans for nutritional, cultural, and economic reasons. Polar bears Ursus maritimus are threatened by sea-ice loss and represent a subsistence resource for Indigenous people. We applied a novel population modeling-management framework that is based on species life history and accounts for habitat loss to evaluate subsistence harvest for the Chukchi Sea (CS) polar bear subpopulation. Harvest strategies followed a state-dependent approach under which new data were used to update the harvest on a predetermined management interval. We found that a harvest strategy with a starting total harvest rate of 2.7% (˜85 bears/yr at current abundance), a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, and a 10-yr management interval would likely maintain subpopulation abundance above maximum net productivity level for the next 35 yr (approximately three polar bear generations), our primary criterion for sustainability. Plausible bounds on starting total harvest rate were 1.7-3.9%, where the range reflects uncertainty due to sampling variation, environmental variation, model selection, and differing levels of risk tolerance. The risk of undesired demographic outcomes (e.g., overharvest) was positively related to harvest rate, management interval, and projected declines in environmental carrying capacity; and negatively related to precision in population data. Results reflect several lines of evidence that the CS subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will last as sea-ice loss continues. Our methods provide a template for balancing trade-offs among protection, use, research investment, and other factors. Demographic risk assessment and state-dependent management will become increasingly important for harvested species, like polar bears, that exhibit spatiotemporal variation in their response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34580486, year = {2021}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change to loom large in talks to form new German government.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-02635-y}, pmid = {34580486}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid34579795, year = {2021}, author = {Hayes, E}, title = {The Anthropocene &amp; the Humanities: From Climate Change to a New Age of Sustainability.}, journal = {British journal for the history of science}, volume = {54}, number = {3}, pages = {381-385}, doi = {10.1017/S0007087421000418}, pmid = {34579795}, issn = {1474-001X}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humanities ; }, }
@article {pmid34579424, year = {2021}, author = {Lee, KC and An, J and Hwang, JE and Kim, PB and Park, HB and Kim, S and Park, HJ and Lee, CW and Lee, BD and Kim, NY}, title = {Effects of Light Condition on Growth and Physiological Characteristics of the Endangered Species Sedirea japonica under RCP 6.0 Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {34579424}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {NIE-C-2021-49//National Institute of Ecology/ ; }, abstract = {This study was conducted to evaluate the physiological and growth responses of Sedirea japonica cultured in chambers under RCP 6.0 and different light conditions. S. japonica was grown in a soil-plant daylight system chamber under two treatments, a control (CO2 = 400 ppm) and a climate change treatment (CCT) (CO2 = 650 ppm, temperature = control + 3 °C), and three different shading treatments (60%, 90%, and no-shading). S. japonica showed the characteristics of typical Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants. As the shading rate increased, it increased chlorophyll content, leaf area, and leaf dry weight to efficiently absorb and use light. The CCT had a lower CO2 absorption rate, stomatal conductance, and growth rate and slightly higher water utilization efficiency than the control. This was because stomatal closure occurred in the CCT to reduce water loss due to a relatively higher temperature. As CO2 fixation decreased and consumption increased due to respiration, the overall growth was inhibited. The CCT without shading revealed a dynamic photoinhibition phenomenon showing a significant increase in ABS/RC, TRo/RC, ETo/RC, and DIo/RC and a decrease in PI ABS and DF ABS. In this group, leaf, root, and total dry weight, chlorophyll content, and carotenoid content were the worst growth indices.}, }
@article {pmid34579337, year = {2021}, author = {Carneiro, AK and Montessoro, PDF and Fusaro, AF and Araújo, BG and Hemerly, AS}, title = {Plant CDKs-Driving the Cell Cycle through Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {34579337}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {FAPERJ, E_26/203.015/2018 and E-26/210.902/2019//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro/ ; CNPq, 426820/2016-9//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; }, abstract = {In a growing population, producing enough food has become a challenge in the face of the dramatic increase in climate change. Plants, during their evolution as sessile organisms, developed countless mechanisms to better adapt to the environment and its fluctuations. One important way is through the plasticity of their body and their forms, which are modulated during plant growth by accurate control of cell divisions. A family of serine/threonine kinases called cyclin-dependent kinases (CDK) is a key regulator of cell divisions by controlling cell cycle progression. In this review, we compile information on the primary response of plants in the regulation of the cell cycle in response to environmental stresses and show how the cell cycle proteins (mainly the cyclin-dependent kinases) involved in this regulation can act as components of environmental response signaling cascades, triggering adaptive responses to drive the cycle through climate fluctuations. Understanding the roles of CDKs and their regulators in the face of adversity may be crucial to meeting the challenge of increasing agricultural productivity in a new climate.}, }
@article {pmid34576787, year = {2021}, author = {Shiryaev, AG}, title = {Uphill Shifts of Fungal Fruiting Due to Climate Change at the Polar Urals.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {34576787}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {Due to the ongoing climatic changes in the Arctic, the ranges of many plants and animal species are rising higher into the mountains, into the treeline; however, such studies are rare for fungi. The 60-year fruiting dynamics of 66 species of Agaricomycetous macrofungi has been studied along the altitudinal transect located on the slope of Slantsevaya Mountain (Polar Urals, Russia). It has been found that the three basic trophic groups (mycorrhizal, saprobes on litter and soil, and saprobes on wood) fruit higher in the mountains. Additionally, for most of the studied species, a tendency towards upward displacement of fruiting was revealed. The rise in fruiting for saprobes on litter and soil was the most obvious. Mycorrhizal fungi associated with woody plants showed the least uplifting effect. Fungal species that were characterized by fruiting higher up the mountainside half a century ago show stronger upward shifts compared to species previously bearing fruit only at the mountain foot. Probably, such a reaction of the aboveground mycobiota is similar to the processes occurring in the soil, which are associated with an active increase in the decomposition rate of the litter, an increase in the depth of permafrost thawing, and a significant redistribution of the soil water balance. On the other hand, the rise of fungi is associated with an increase of plant biomass in the middle and upper parts, which are the most important sources of fungal nutrition.}, }
@article {pmid34576736, year = {2021}, author = {Fiodor, A and Singh, S and Pranaw, K}, title = {The Contrivance of Plant Growth Promoting Microbes to Mitigate Climate Change Impact in Agriculture.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {34576736}, issn = {2076-2607}, support = {POIR.04.04.00-00-14E6/18-00//TEAM-NET programme of the Foundation for Polish Science co-financed by the European Union under the European Regional Development Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Combating the consequences of climate change is extremely important and critical in the context of feeding the world's population. Crop simulation models have been extensively studied recently to investigate the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and food security. Drought and salinity are major environmental stresses that cause changes in the physiological, biochemical, and molecular processes in plants, resulting in significant crop productivity losses. Excessive use of chemicals has become a severe threat to human health and the environment. The use of beneficial microorganisms is an environmentally friendly method of increasing crop yield under environmental stress conditions. These microbes enhance plant growth through various mechanisms such as production of hormones, ACC deaminase, VOCs and EPS, and modulate hormone synthesis and other metabolites in plants. This review aims to decipher the effect of plant growth promoting bacteria (PGPB) on plant health under abiotic soil stresses associated with global climate change (viz., drought and salinity). The application of stress-resistant PGPB may not only help in the combating the effects of abiotic stressors, but also lead to mitigation of climate change. More thorough molecular level studies are needed in the future to assess their cumulative influence on plant development.}, }
@article {pmid34571820, year = {2021}, author = {Suybeng, B and Mwangi, FW and McSweeney, CS and Charmley, E and Gardiner, CP and Malau-Aduli, BS and Malau-Aduli, AEO}, title = {Response to Climate Change: Evaluation of Methane Emissions in Northern Australian Beef Cattle on a High Quality Diet Supplemented with Desmanthus Using Open-Circuit Respiration Chambers and GreenFeed Emission Monitoring Systems.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {34571820}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {P.PSH.1055//Meat and Livestock Australia/ ; CRC P-58599//Cooperative Research Centres, Australian Government Department of Industry/ ; }, abstract = {The main objective of this study was to compare the effect of supplementing beef cattle with Desmanthus virgatus cv. JCU2, D. bicornutus cv. JCU4, D. leptophyllus cv. JCU7 and lucerne on in vivo methane (CH4) emissions measured by open-circuit respiration chambers (OC) or the GreenFeed emission monitoring (GEM) system. Experiment 1 employed OC and utilized sixteen yearling Brangus steers fed a basal diet of Rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) hay in four treatments-the three Desmanthus cultivars and lucerne (Medicago sativa) at 30% dry matter intake (DMI). Polyethylene glycol (PEG) was added to the diets to neutralize tannin binding and explore the effect on CH4 emissions. Experiment 2 employed GEM and utilized forty-eight animals allocated to four treatments including a basal diet of Rhodes grass hay plus the three Desmanthus cultivars in equal proportions at 0%, 15%, 30% and 45% DMI. Lucerne was added to equilibrate crude protein content in all treatments. Experiment 1 showed no difference in CH4 emissions between the Desmanthus cultivars, between Desmanthus and lucerne or between Desmanthus and the basal diet. Experiment 2 showed an increase in CH4 emissions in the three levels containing Desmanthus. It is concluded that on high-quality diets, Desmanthus does not reduce CH4 emissions.}, }
@article {pmid34571742, year = {2021}, author = {Durán, P and Tortella, G and Sadowsky, MJ and Viscardi, S and Barra, PJ and Mora, ML}, title = {Engineering Multigenerational Host-Modulated Microbiota against Soilborne Pathogens in Response to Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {34571742}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {1201196//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient&#xed;fico y Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 1181050//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient&#xed;fico y Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; RT06-17//Institut chilien de l'Antarctique/ ; }, abstract = {Crop migration caused by climatic events has favored the emergence of new soilborne diseases, resulting in the colonization of new niches (emerging infectious diseases, EIDs). Soilborne pathogens are extremely persistent in the environment. This is in large part due to their ability to reside in the soil for a long time, even without a host plant, using survival several strategies. In this regard, disease-suppressive soils, characterized by a low disease incidence due to the presence of antagonist microorganisms, can be an excellent opportunity for the study mechanisms of soil-induced immunity, which can be applied in the development of a new generation of bioinoculants. Therefore, here we review the main effects of climate change on crops and pathogens, as well as the potential use of soil-suppressive microbiota as a natural source of biocontrol agents. Based on results of previous studies, we also propose a strategy for the optimization of microbiota assemblages, selected using a host-mediated approach. This process involves an increase in and prevalence of specific taxa during the transition from a conducive to a suppressive soil. This strategy could be used as a model to engineer microbiota assemblages for pathogen suppression, as well as for the reduction of abiotic stresses created due to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34571236, year = {2022}, author = {Chernos, M and MacDonald, RJ and Straker, J and Green, K and Craig, JR}, title = {Simulating the cumulative effects of potential open-pit mining and climate change on streamflow and water quality in a mountainous watershed.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {806}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {150394}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150394}, pmid = {34571236}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Alberta ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Mining ; Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Land use and climate change effects on water quality and water quantity are well documented globally. Most studies evaluate individual factors and effects, without considering the interrelationships between land use, climate, water quality, and water quantity. This study provides an integrated assessment of the cumulative effects of climate change and potential open-pit coal mining on streamflow and water quality in the Oldman River Basin, Alberta, Canada. A hydrological model was developed that incorporates estimates of future selenium loading, water use, and projected changes in air temperature and precipitation to evaluate changes in water quantity and quality. Model results indicate that estimated selenium concentrations, absent any attenuation, are likely to be substantially above most water quality guidelines and strong reliance on mitigation technologies would be required to maintain adequate water quality in the watershed if mine development were to take place. Streamflow is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, and modelling results suggest there are likely to be increases in winter flow, earlier peak flow, and reductions in flow during the summer and fall months under the climate change scenarios. These changes can have direct impacts on the degree of selenium dilution and more generally on aquatic habitat, ecosystem health, and socioeconomic needs. This study highlights that water management decisions may mis-evaluate the risks and tradeoffs of future mine development if they fail to adequately consider climate change and changing streamflow regimes and their indirect effects on water quality.}, }
@article {pmid34568601, year = {2021}, author = {Trájer, AJ}, title = {Aedes aegypti in the Mediterranean container ports at the time of climate change: A time bomb on the mosquito vector map of Europe.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {e07981}, pmid = {34568601}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {In the past, Aedes aegypti was present in Southern Europe. Although the mosquito was eradicated from the Mediterranean region, its regional ecotype survived the second half of the 20[th] century in the eastern Black Sea area. The aim of the study was to model the changes in the altering climatic suitability, ontogenetic development time and the survival rate of Aedes aegypti from first-stage larvae to adulthood in Southern Europe. The modelled present climatic suitability patterns of the mosquito show that large areas of the lower altitude Mediterranean regions, including the coastal areas of the Balkan Peninsula, South France, and large regions of the Apennines and the Iberian Peninsulas could be suitable for Ae. aegypti. The future (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) projections predict the potential northward shift of the northern occurrence of the species in the circum-Mediterranean and Black Sea areas. Both, the potential development time, and survival rate of Ae. aegypti in the late 19[th] and the early 20[th] century could be like in the present times along the Mediterranean coast. The current climatic conditions cannot explain the absence of the mosquito in wide areas of the Mediterranean and sub-Mediterranean ecoregions. The future models predict the notable increase in the development time and survival rate of the mosquito in the southern and central regions of Europe. In general, the container ports of the Alboran, Balearic, and Aegean seas seem to be the most suitable sites for the re-colonization of the mosquito, and such northern parts of the Mediterranean Sea like the Gulf of Lion, the Ligurian, and Adriatic Seas are in less extent.}, }
@article {pmid34567238, year = {2021}, author = {Wobus, C and Porter, J and Lorie, M and Martinich, J and Bash, R}, title = {Climate change, riverine flood risk and adaptation for the conterminous United States.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {34567238}, issn = {1748-9326}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Riverine floods are among the most costly natural disasters in the United States, and floods are generally projected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. Faced with these increasing risks, improved information is needed to direct limited resources toward the most cost-effective adaptation actions available. Here we leverage a newly available flood risk dataset for residential properties in the conterminous United States to calculate expected annual damages to residential structures from inland/riverine flooding at a property-level; the cost of property-level adaptations to protect against future flood risk; and the benefits of those adaptation investments assuming both static and changing climate conditions. Our modeling projects that in the absence of adaptation, nationwide damages from riverine flooding will increase by 20-30% under high levels of warming. Floodproofing, elevation and property acquisition can each be cost-effective adaptations in certain situations, depending on the desired return on investment (i.e., benefit cost ratio), the discount rate, and the assumed rate of climate change. Incorporation of climate change into the benefit-cost calculation increases the number of properties meeting any specified benefit-cost threshold, as today's investments protect against an increasing frequency of future floods. However, because future expected damages are discounted relative to present-day, the adaptation decisions made based on a static climate assumption are very similar to the decisions made when climate change is considered. If the goal is to optimize adaptation decision making, a focus on quantifying present-day flood risk is therefore at least as important as understanding how those risks might change under a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid34566549, year = {2022}, author = {Li, H and Huang, K and Fu, Q and Lin, Y and Chen, J and Deng, C and Tian, X and Tang, Q and Song, Q and Wei, Z}, title = {Airborne black carbon variations during the COVID-19 lockdown in the Yangtze River Delta megacities suggest actions to curb global warming.}, journal = {Environmental chemistry letters}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {71-80}, pmid = {34566549}, issn = {1610-3653}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Airborne black carbon is a strong warming component of the atmosphere. Therefore, curbing black carbon emissions should slow down global warming. The 2019 coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) is a unique opportunity for studying the response of black carbon to the varied human activities, in particular due to lockdown policies. Actually, there is few knowledge on the variations of black carbon in China during lockdowns. Here, we studied the concentrations of particulate matter (PM2.5) and black carbon before, during, and after the lockdown in nine sites of the Yangtze River Delta in Eastern China. Results show 40-60% reduction of PM2.5 and 40-50% reduction of black carbon during the lockdown. The classical bimodal peaks of black carbon in the morning and evening rush hours were highly weakened, indicating the substantial decrease of traffic activities. Contributions from fossil fuels combustion to black carbon decreased about 5-10% during the lockdown. Spatial correlation analysis indicated the clustering of the multi-site black carbon concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta during the lockdown. Overall, control of emissions from traffic and industrial activities should be efficient to curb black carbon levels in the frame of a 'green public transit system' for mega-city clusters such as the Yangtze River Delta.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10311-021-01327-3.}, }
@article {pmid34566453, year = {2021}, author = {Costa, R and Borges, PAV}, title = {SLAM Project - Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the natural forest of Azores: I - the spiders from native forests of Terceira and Pico Islands (2012-2019).}, journal = {Biodiversity data journal}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e69924}, pmid = {34566453}, issn = {1314-2828}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Long-term monitoring of invertebrate communities is needed to understand the impact of key biodiversity erosion drivers (e.g. habitat fragmentation and degradation, invasive species, pollution, climatic changes) on the biodiversity of these high diverse organisms.The data we present are part of the long-term project SLAM (Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the natural forest of Azores) that started in 2012, aiming to understand the impact of biodiversity erosion drivers on Azorean native forests (Azores, Macaronesia, Portugal). In this contribution, the design of the project, its objectives and the first available data for the spider fauna of two Islands (Pico and Terceira) are described.Passive flight interception SLAM traps (Sea, Land and Air Malaise traps) were used to sample native forest plots in several Azorean islands, with one trap being set up at each plot and samples taken every three months following the seasons.The key objectives of the SLAM project are: 1) collect long-term ecological data to evaluate species distributions and abundance at multiple spatial and temporal scales, responding to the Wallacean and Prestonian shortfalls, 2) identify biodiversity erosion drivers impacting oceanic indigenous assemblages under global change for conservation management purpose, 3) use species distribution and abundance data in model-based studies of environmental change in different islands, 4) contribute to clarifying the potential occurrence of an "insect decline" in Azores and identifying the spatial and temporal invasion patterns of exotic arthropod species, 5) contribute with temporal data to re-assess the Red-list status of Azorean endemic arthropods and 6) perform studies about the relationship between diversity (taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic) and ecosystem function.<br><br>NEW INFORMATION: The project SLAM (Long Term Ecological Study of the Impacts of Climate Change in the natural forest of Azores) is described in detail.Seasonal distribution and abundance data of Azorean spiders, based on a long-term study undertaken between 2012 and 2019 in two Azorean Islands (Terceira and Pico), is presented. A total of 14979 specimens were collected, of which 6430 (43%) were adults. Despite the uncertainty of juvenile identification, juveniles are also included in the data presented in this paper, since the low diversity allows a relatively precise identification of this life-stage in Azores.A total of 57 species, belonging to 50 genera and 17 families, were recorded from the area, which constitutes baseline information of spiders from the studied sites for future long-term comparisons. Linyphiidae were the richest and most abundant family, with 19 (33%) species and 5973 (40%) specimens. The ten most abundant species are composed mostly of endemic or native non-endemic species and only one exotic species (Tenuiphantestenuis (Blackwall, 1852)). Those ten most abundant species include 84% of all sampled specimens and are clearly the dominant species in the Azorean native forests. Textrixcaudata L. Koch, 1872 was firstly reported from Terceira and Pico Islands, Araneusangulatus Clerck, 1757 was firstly reported from Terceira Island, Nerieneclathrata (Sundevall, 1830) and Macaroerisdiligens (Blackwall, 1867) were firstly reported from Pico Island.This publication contributes not only to a better knowledge of the arachnofauna present in native forests of Terceira and Pico, but also to understand the patterns of abundance and diversity of spider species, both seasonally and between years.}, }
@article {pmid34564409, year = {2021}, author = {Jorge, TF and Ramalho, JC and Alseekh, S and Pais, IP and Leitão, AE and Rodrigues, AP and Scotti-Campos, P and Ribeiro-Barros, AI and Fernie, AR and António, C}, title = {Will Casuarina glauca Stress Resilience Be Maintained in the Face of Climate Change?.}, journal = {Metabolites}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {34564409}, issn = {2218-1989}, support = {PTDC/AGR-FOR/4218/2012//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; UID/Multi/04551/2013 (GREEN-IT)//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; UIDB/00239/2020(CEF)//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; UIDP/04035/2020 (GeoBioTec)//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; IF/00376/2012/CP0165/CT0003//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; PD/BD/113475/2015//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; PD/00035/2013//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; SGA-CSA No. 739582 under FPA No. 664620//Horizon 2020/ ; }, abstract = {Actinorhizal plants have been regarded as promising species in the current climate change context due to their high tolerance to a multitude of abiotic stresses. While combined salt-heat stress effects have been studied in crop species, their impact on the model actinorhizal plant, Casuarina glauca, has not yet been fully addressed. The effect of single salt (400 mM NaCl) and heat (control at 26/22 °C, supra optimal temperatures at 35/22 °C and 45/22 °C day/night) conditions on C. glauca branchlets was characterised at the physiological level, and stress-induced metabolite changes were characterised by mass spectrometry-based metabolomics. C. glauca could withstand single salt and heat conditions. However, the harshest stress condition (400 mM NaCl, 45 °C) revealed photosynthetic impairments due to mesophyll and membrane permeability limitations as well as major stress-specific differential responses in C and N metabolism. The increased activity of enzymatic ROS scavengers was, however, revealed to be sufficient to control the plant oxidative status. Although C. glauca could tolerate single salt and heat stresses, their negative interaction enhanced the effects of salt stress. Results demonstrated that C. glauca responses to combined salt-heat stress could be explained as a sum of the responses from each single applied stress.}, }
@article {pmid34564243, year = {2021}, author = {Caselli, A and Petacchi, R}, title = {Climate Change and Major Pests of Mediterranean Olive Orchards: Are We Ready to Face the Global Heating?.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {34564243}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {Evidence of the impact of climate change on natural and agroecosystems is nowadays established worldwide, especially in the Mediterranean Basin, an area known to be very susceptible to heatwaves and drought. Olea europaea is one of the main income sources for the Mediterranean agroeconomy, and it is considered a sensitive indicator of the climate change degree because of the tight relationship between its biology and temperature trend. Despite the economic importance of the olive, few studies are nowadays available concerning the consequences that global heating may have on its major pests. Among the climatic parameters, temperature is the key one influencing the relation between the olive tree and its most threatening parasites, including Bactrocera oleae and Prays oleae. Therefore, several prediction models are based on this climatic parameter (e.g., cumulative degree day models). Even if the use of models could be a promising tool to improve pest control strategies and to safeguard the Mediterranean olive patrimony, they are not currently available for most O. europaea pests, and they have to be used considering their limits. This work stresses the lack of knowledge about the biology and the ethology of olive pests under a climate change scenario, inviting the scientific community to focus on the topic.}, }
@article {pmid34562757, year = {2022}, author = {Cavelan, A and Golfier, F and Colombano, S and Davarzani, H and Deparis, J and Faure, P}, title = {A critical review of the influence of groundwater level fluctuations and temperature on LNAPL contaminations in the context of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {806}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {150412}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150412}, pmid = {34562757}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biodegradation, Environmental ; *Climate Change ; *Groundwater ; Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) predicts significant changes in precipitation patterns, an increase in temperature, and groundwater level variations by 2100. These changes are expected to alter light non-aqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) impacts since groundwater level fluctuations and temperature are known to influence both the mobility and release of LNAPL compounds to air and groundwater. Knowledge of these potential effects is currently dispersed in the literature, hindering a clear vision of the processes at play. This review aims to synthesize and discuss the possible effects of the increase in temperature and groundwater level fluctuations on the behavior of LNAPL and its components in a climate change context. In summary, a higher amplitude of groundwater table variations and higher temperatures will probably increase biodegradation processes, the LNAPL mobility, and spreading across the smear zone, favoring the release of LNAPL compounds to the atmosphere and groundwater but decreasing the LNAPL mass and its longevity. Outcomes will, nevertheless, vary greatly across arid, cold, or humid coastal environments, where different effects of climate change are expected. The effects of the climate change factors linked to soil heterogeneities, local conditions, and weathering processes will govern LNAPL behavior and need to be further clarified.}, }
@article {pmid34562381, year = {2021}, author = {Romanello, M and van Daalen, K and Anto, JM and Dasandi, N and Drummond, P and Hamilton, IG and Jankin, S and Kendrovski, V and Lowe, R and Rocklöv, J and Schmoll, O and Semenza, JC and Tonne, C and Nilsson, M}, title = {Tracking progress on health and climate change in Europe.}, journal = {The Lancet. Public health}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {e858-e865}, doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00207-3}, pmid = {34562381}, issn = {2468-2667}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Europe ; Humans ; Public Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Left unabated, climate change will have catastrophic effects on the health of present and future generations. Such effects are already seen in Europe, through more frequent and severe extreme weather events, alterations to water and food systems, and changes in the environmental suitability for infectious diseases. As one of the largest current and historical contributors to greenhouse gases and the largest provider of financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation, Europe's response is crucial, for both human health and the planet. To ensure that health and wellbeing are protected in this response it is essential to build the capacity to understand, monitor, and quantify health impacts of climate change and the health co-benefits of accelerated action. Responding to this need, the Lancet Countdown in Europe is established as a transdisciplinary research collaboration for monitoring progress on health and climate change in Europe. With the wealth of data and academic expertise available in Europe, the collaboration will develop region-specific indicators to address the main challenges and opportunities of Europe's response to climate change for health. The indicators produced by the collaboration will provide information to health and climate policy decision making, and will also contribute to the European Observatory on Climate and Health.}, }
@article {pmid34562268, year = {2021}, author = {Rakhmanova, L and Kolesnichenko, L and Kuzhevskaya, I and Kolesnichenko, I and Vorobev, R and Tyulyupo, S and Drozdov, V and Shaduyko, O}, title = {Perspectives of climate change: A comparison of scientific understanding and local interpretations by different Western Siberian communities.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {11}, pages = {2072-2089}, pmid = {34562268}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {2296.61321X0043//Ministry of Education and Science of Russian Federation/ ; }, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Knowledge ; Perception ; Siberia ; }, abstract = {We present a study of social effects of climate change as experienced by local communities, based on field research and analysis in Western Siberia, from southern taiga to tundra. The results of field anthropological research reveal different attitudes of local residents to climate change. We compare the key trends of climate change with the perspectives of local residents, based on memories, subjective experiences, and local environmental knowledge. Our results highlight a significant divergence of the subjective assessments of residents from objective data on the dynamics of changes in certain environmental elements. We explore how the human subjective perception of natural processes, their consequences and impacts, are influenced by such factors as: type of settlement, age, gender, level of education and how collective stereotypes and judgments merge information in attitude formation. We also address the need to reconcile observed climate change impacts and perceptions to enable decision-makers to engage more constructively with the local population to develop and implement adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid34561835, year = {2022}, author = {Horn, B and Ferreira, C and Kalantari, Z}, title = {Links between food trade, climate change and food security in developed countries: A case study of Sweden.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {51}, number = {4}, pages = {943-954}, pmid = {34561835}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {2017-00608//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Food Security ; *Food Supply ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {Food security is a global concern affecting even highly developed countries. Ongoing globalisation of food systems, characterised by trading interdependencies, means that agricultural production can be disrupted by climate change, affecting food availability. This study investigated Sweden's food security by identifying major food import categories and associated trade partners (using the World Integrated Trade System database) and vulnerability to frictions in trade deriving from climate change. Vulnerability was assessed through three indicators: exposure based on diversity of sources, dominance and direct trade from supplying countries; sensitivity, assessed using the Climate Risk Index, and adaptive capacity, assessed using the Fragile State Index. The results revealed that Sweden's grain imports may be most vulnerable, and animal products least vulnerable, to climate change. Management strategies based on this preliminary assessment can be developed by integrating climate vulnerability deriving from food trading into the 'Gravity' model, to improve prediction of trade flows.}, }
@article {pmid34559407, year = {2021}, author = {Maharajan, T and Ceasar, SA and Krishna, TPA and Ignacimuthu, S}, title = {Management of phosphorus nutrient amid climate change for sustainable agriculture.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {50}, number = {6}, pages = {1303-1324}, doi = {10.1002/jeq2.20292}, pmid = {34559407}, issn = {1537-2537}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Nutrients ; *Phosphorus ; }, abstract = {Nutrients are essential for plant growth and development and influence overall agricultural production. Phosphorus (P) is a major nutrient required for many physiological and biochemical functions of a plant. Phosphate rock is the major source of phosphate fertilizer but is becoming increasingly limited in both developing and developed countries. The resources of phosphate rock need to be conserved, and import dependency on phosphate fertilizer needs to be minimized; this will help increase the availability of phosphate fertilizer over the next 300 yr. Climate change creates new challenges in the management of nutrients including P, affecting the overall production of crops. The availability, acquisition, and translocation of P are influenced by the fluctuation of temperatures, pH, drought, and elevated CO2 . Both lower and higher soil temperatures reduce uptake and translocation of P. High soil pH affects P concentration and decreases the rate of plant P uptake. Low soil pH decreases the activity of soil microorganisms, the rate of transpiration, and P uptake and utilization. Elevated CO2 decreases P uptake from soil by the plants. Future research is needed on chemical, molecular, microbiological, and physiological aspects to improve the understanding on how temperature, pH, drought, and elevated CO2 affect the availability, acquisition, and transport of P by plants. Better P management strategies are required to secure the P supply to ensure long-term protection of soil fertility and to avoid environmental impacts such as eutrophication and water pollution, ensuring sustainable food production.}, }
@article {pmid34558764, year = {2022}, author = {Lyon, C and Saupe, EE and Smith, CJ and Hill, DJ and Beckerman, AP and Stringer, LC and Marchant, R and McKay, J and Burke, A and O'Higgins, P and Dunhill, AM and Allen, BJ and Riel-Salvatore, J and Aze, T}, title = {Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {349-361}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15871}, pmid = {34558764}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Anthropogenic Effects ; Atmosphere ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.}, }
@article {pmid34558688, year = {2021}, author = {Mills, G}, title = {Animals 'shapeshifting' in the face of climate change.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {189}, number = {6}, pages = {228-229}, doi = {10.1002/vetr.986}, pmid = {34558688}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Georgina Mills describes how some species are evolving to adapt to hotter climates.}, }
@article {pmid34557746, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, H and Xu, C and Liu, Y and Jeppesen, E and Svenning, JC and Wu, J and Zhang, W and Zhou, T and Wang, P and Nangombe, S and Ma, J and Duan, H and Fang, J and Xie, P}, title = {From unusual suspect to serial killer: Cyanotoxins boosted by climate change may jeopardize megafauna.}, journal = {Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {100092}, pmid = {34557746}, issn = {2666-6758}, abstract = {The recent mass mortality event of more than 330 African elephants in Botswana has been attributed to biotoxins produced by cyanobacteria; however, scientific evidence for this is lacking. Here, by synthesizing multiple sources of data, we show that, during the past decades, the widespread hypertrophic waters in Southern Africa have entailed an extremely high risk and frequent exposure of cyanotoxins to the wildlife within this area, which functions as a hotspot of mammal species richness. The hot and dry climatic extremes have most likely acted as the primary trigger of the recent and perhaps also of prehistoric mass mortality events. As such climate extremes are projected to become more frequent in Southern Africa in the near future, there is a risk that similar tragedies may take place, rendering African megafauna species, especially those that are already endangered, in risk of extinction. Moreover, cyanotoxin poisoning amplified by climate change may have unexpected cascading effects on human societies. Seen within this perspective, the tragic mass death of the world's largest terrestrial mammal species serves as an alarming early warning signal of future environmental catastrophes in Southern Africa. We suggest that systematic, quantitative cyanotoxin risk assessments are made and precautionary actions to mitigate the risks are taken without hesitation to ensure the health and sustainability of the megafauna and human societies within the region.}, }
@article {pmid34557708, year = {2020}, author = {Jeppesen, E and Beklioğlu, M and Özkan, K and Akyürek, Z}, title = {Salinization Increase due to Climate Change Will Have Substantial Negative Effects on Inland Waters: A Call for Multifaceted Research at the Local and Global Scale.}, journal = {Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {100030}, pmid = {34557708}, issn = {2666-6758}, }
@article {pmid34557210, year = {2021}, author = {Giannini, TC and Acosta, AL and Costa, WF and Miranda, L and Pinto, CE and Watanabe, MTC and Zappi, DC and Giulietti, AM and Imperatriz-Fonseca, VL}, title = {Flora of Ferruginous Outcrops Under Climate Change: A Study in the Cangas of Carajás (Eastern Amazon).}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {699034}, pmid = {34557210}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change has impacted biodiversity, affecting species and altering their geographical distribution. Besides understanding the impact in the species, it has been advocated that answering if different traits will be differently impacted could allow refined predictions of how climate change will jeopardize biodiversity. Our aim was to evaluate if climate change will potentially impact plant species differently, considering their traits. We evaluated 608 plant species that occur in the naturally open areas of ferruginous outcrops (namely, cangas) in the National Forest of Carajás (Eastern Amazon). Firstly, we estimated the effects of climate change on each species using species distribution modeling, and analyzed this impact in the set containing all species. Secondly, we classified plant species considering the following traits: (i) pollination syndromes (melittophily, phalaenophily, psychophily, cantharophily, entomophily, ornithophily, chiropterophily, anemophily); (ii) habit (tree, shrub, herb, liana, parasite); and (iii) the main habitat of occurrence (open areas and forests). Thirdly, we investigated if the effects of climate change could be significantly more intense considering all the different traits quoted. Our results showed that most plant species will potentially face reduction of suitable habitats under future climate and the scenarios showed that 42% of them may not find suitable areas in the cangas of Carajás. We found no significant difference within each analyzed trait, considering the potential impact of climate change. The most climatically suitable areas (i.e., areas with high probability of species occurrence in the future) are those in the southwest of the study area. These areas can be considered as priority areas for species protection against climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34556766, year = {2021}, author = {Kouba, M and Bartoš, L and Bartošová, J and Hongisto, K and Korpimäki, E}, title = {Long-term trends in the body condition of parents and offspring of Tengmalm's owls under fluctuating food conditions and climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {18893}, pmid = {34556766}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Datasets as Topic ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Female ; Finland ; Forests ; Male ; Physical Fitness/*physiology ; Population Dynamics/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Predatory Behavior ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Strigiformes/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Physical condition is important for the ability to resist various parasites and diseases as well as in escaping predators thus contributing to reproductive success, over-winter survival and possible declines in wildlife populations. However, in-depth research on trends in body condition is rare because decades-long datasets are not available for a majority of species. We analysed the long-term dataset of offspring covering 34 years, male parents (40 years) and female parents (42 years) to find out whether the decline of Tengmalm's owl population in western Finland is attributable to either decreased adult and/or juvenile body condition in interaction with changing weather conditions and density estimates of main foods. We found that body condition of parent owl males and females declined throughout the 40-year study period whereas the body condition of owlets at the fledging stage very slightly increased. The body condition of parent owls increased with augmenting depth of snow cover in late winter (January to March), and that of offspring improved with increasing precipitation in late spring (May to June). We conclude that the decreasing trend of body condition of parent owl males and females is important factor probably inducing reduced adult survival and reduced reproduction success thus contributing to the long-term decline of the Tengmalm's owl study population. The very slightly increasing trend of body condition of offspring is obviously not able to compensate the overall decline of Tengmalm's owl population, because the number of offspring in turn simultaneously decreased considerably in the long-term. The ongoing climate change appeared to work in opposite ways in this case because declining depth of snow cover will make the situation worse but increased precipitation will improve. We suggest that the main reasons for long-term decline of body condition of parent owls are interactive or additive effects of reduced food resources and increased overall predation risk due to habitat degradation (loss and fragmentation of mature and old-growth forests due to clear-felling) subsequently leading to decline of Tengmalm's owl study population.}, }
@article {pmid34555315, year = {2021}, author = {Zhao, J and Luo, Y}, title = {A framework to address cognitive biases of climate change.}, journal = {Neuron}, volume = {109}, number = {22}, pages = {3548-3551}, doi = {10.1016/j.neuron.2021.08.029}, pmid = {34555315}, issn = {1097-4199}, mesh = {Bias ; Climate Change ; *Cognition ; *Decision Making ; }, abstract = {We propose a framework that outlines several predominant cognitive biases of climate change, identifies potential causes, and proposes debiasing tools, with the ultimate goal of depolarizing climate beliefs and promoting actions to mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34554997, year = {2021}, author = {Breysse, P and Dolan, K and Schramm, P and Plescia, M}, title = {Approaching Climate Change: The Role of State and Territorial Health Agencies.}, journal = {Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP}, volume = {27}, number = {6}, pages = {615-617}, doi = {10.1097/PHH.0000000000001436}, pmid = {34554997}, issn = {1550-5022}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid34554077, year = {2021}, author = {Springgate, BF and Sugarman, O and Wells, KB and Palinkas, LA and Meyers, D and Wennerstrom, A and Johnson, A and Haywood, C and Sarpong, D and Culbertson, R}, title = {Community Partnered Participatory Research in Southeast Louisiana Communities Threatened by Climate Change: The C-LEARN EXPERIENCE.}, journal = {The American journal of bioethics : AJOB}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {46-48}, doi = {10.1080/15265161.2021.1965248}, pmid = {34554077}, issn = {1536-0075}, support = {U54 GM104940/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Community Participation ; *Community-Based Participatory Research ; Humans ; Louisiana ; }, }
@article {pmid34551123, year = {2021}, author = {Di Ciaula, A and Krawczyk, M and Filipiak, KJ and Geier, A and Bonfrate, L and Portincasa, P}, title = {Noncommunicable diseases, climate change and iniquities: What COVID-19 has taught us about syndemic.}, journal = {European journal of clinical investigation}, volume = {51}, number = {12}, pages = {e13682}, pmid = {34551123}, issn = {1365-2362}, mesh = {COVID-19/*epidemiology/mortality ; *Climate Change ; Disease Susceptibility ; Environmental Policy ; *Environmental Pollution ; Health Care Costs ; *Health Inequities ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Noncommunicable Diseases/*epidemiology/mortality ; *Public Policy ; Quarantine ; SARS-CoV-2 ; *Socioeconomic Factors ; *Syndemic ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is generating clinical challenges, lifestyle changes, economic consequences. The pandemic imposes to familiarize with concepts as prevention, vulnerability and resilience.<br><br>METHODS: We analysed and reviewed the most relevant papers in the MEDLINE database on syndemic, noncommunicable diseases, pandemic, climate changes, pollution, resilience, vulnerability, health costs, COVID-19.<br><br>RESULTS: We discuss that comprehensive strategies must face multifactorial consequences since the pandemic becomes syndemic due to interactions with noncommunicable diseases, climate changes and iniquities. The lockdown experience, on the other hand, demonstrates that it is rapidly possible to reverse epidemiologic trends and to reduce pollution. The worst outcome is evident in eight highly industrialized nations, where 12% of the world population experienced about one-third of all COVID-19-deaths worldwide. Thus, a great economic power has not been fully protective, and a change of policy is obviously needed to avoid irreversible consequences.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We are accumulating unhealthy populations living in unhealthy environments and generating unhealthy offspring. The winning policy should tackle structural inequities through a syndemic approach, to protect vulnerable populations from present and future harms.}, }
@article {pmid34551119, year = {2021}, author = {Mitchell, PH}, title = {Nursing's mandate in climate change.}, journal = {International nursing review}, volume = {68}, number = {3}, pages = {279-280}, doi = {10.1111/inr.12704}, pmid = {34551119}, issn = {1466-7657}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Social Justice ; }, abstract = {Science tells us that human-induced climate change is real and threatening health and well-being everywhere. Nurses have a key role as individuals and collectively to mitigate these effects. We are obligated to action, advocacy, and policy change at both a personal and professional level in this global emergency. This includes working to achieve climate justice and the United Nations' Sustainable Health Goals, which have a strong focus on climate action.}, }
@article {pmid34549847, year = {2021}, author = {Foong, LH and Huntley, R}, title = {Communicating about climate change - Who is listening, who isn't and why: Implications for medical professionals.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {57}, number = {11}, pages = {1826-1829}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.15717}, pmid = {34549847}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Community concern about climate change in the community in general is strong and getting stronger but greater action on climate change is contingent upon whether the public sees strong links between climate effects and personal and community wellbeing in the present as well as the future. Medical and health-care professions can be effective messengers about the impacts of climate given their trusted status and ability to draw connections between climate change and physical and mental health.}, }
@article {pmid34549661, year = {2022}, author = {Schmid-Petri, H and Bürger, M}, title = {The effect of misinformation and inoculation: Replication of an experiment on the effect of false experts in the context of climate change communication.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {152-167}, pmid = {34549661}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communication ; Humans ; }, abstract = {An important communication strategy of climate skeptics is the use of fake experts, who act as spokespersons, although they do not possess any expertise in the field. One promising approach to tackle the effect of misinformation is inoculation. Previous research focuses on the United States, and the comparably low effect sizes of previous research call for further examination and consolidation. This study aims to complement those findings with data for Germany and replicates and extends an experiment by Cook et al. with a 2 × 2 between-subjects design. Our study confirms the importance of pre-existing worldviews for climate-related attitudes. Regarding the effects of misinformation messages and most notably, the effects of inoculation messages we could not replicate the findings of Cook et al.: At least in our setting, the misinformation message and also inoculation preceding misinformation had hardly any effect on the climate-related attitudes under study.}, }
@article {pmid34549563, year = {2021}, author = {Michelozzi, P and De' Donato, F}, title = {[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: stopping climate change to save our planet].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {227-229}, doi = {10.19191/EP21.4.P227.076}, pmid = {34549563}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; *Planets ; }, }
@article {pmid34548926, year = {2021}, author = {Guo, L}, title = {Battle of the bees: will native or invasive bees fare better with climate change?.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {coab080}, pmid = {34548926}, issn = {2051-1434}, }
@article {pmid34548721, year = {2021}, author = {Wynes, S and Kotcher, J and Donner, SD}, title = {Can citizen pressure influence politicians' communication about climate change? Results from a field experiment.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {168}, number = {1-2}, pages = {6}, pmid = {34548721}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Urgent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions depend on governments implementing and enforcing rigorous climate policy. Individuals in democracies seeking to persuade government officials to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can take steps such as voting, protesting, and contacting officials directly, but it is unclear how effective each of these actions is in changing the behavior of elected officials. Here we take advantage of the public nature of social media to evaluate the actual efficacy of climate campaign emails using an original, real-world experiment where 335 Members of Canadian Parliament were asked by constituents to post a pro-climate message to their Twitter account. Only one Member of Parliament posted the exact text suggested by the campaign. After scraping and coding 18,776 tweets, we first find no evidence that a public health messaging frame is more effective than a standard environmental frame in eliciting pro-climate posts. Furthermore, we find only a marginally significant relationship between volume of constituent contact and increased pro-climate tweeting from Members of Parliament. Follow-up interviews with political staffers suggest that analog alternatives may be more effective than campaign emails in some cases. Interview findings also reveal that some offices receive low levels of constituent communication on climate change, indicating that increased pressure from constituents could still be consequential.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03215-9.}, }
@article {pmid34548720, year = {2021}, author = {Wells, R and Howarth, C and Brand-Correa, LI}, title = {Are citizen juries and assemblies on climate change driving democratic climate policymaking? An exploration of two case studies in the UK.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {168}, number = {1-2}, pages = {5}, pmid = {34548720}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {In light of increasing pressure to deliver climate action targets and the growing role of citizens in raising the importance of the issue, deliberative democratic processes (e.g. citizen juries and citizen assemblies) on climate change are increasingly being used to provide a voice to citizens in climate change decision-making. Through a comparative case study of two processes that ran in the UK in 2019 (the Leeds Climate Change Citizens' Jury and the Oxford Citizens' Assembly on Climate Change), this paper investigates how far citizen assemblies and juries are increasing citizen engagement on climate change and creating more citizen-centred climate policymaking. Interviews were conducted with policymakers, councillors, professional facilitators and others involved in running these processes to assess motivations for conducting these, their structure and the impact and influence they had. The findings suggest the impact of these processes is not uniform: they have an indirect impact on policy making by creating momentum around climate action and supporting the introduction of pre-planned or pre-existing policies rather than a direct impact by truly being citizen-centred policy making processes or conducive to new climate policy. We conclude with reflections on how these processes give elected representatives a public mandate on climate change, that they help to identify more nuanced and in-depth public opinions in a fair and informed way, yet it can be challenging to embed citizen juries and assemblies in wider democratic processes.}, }
@article {pmid34548673, year = {2021}, author = {Lovejoy, TE}, title = {Nature, COVID-19, disease prevention, and climate change.}, journal = {Biological conservation}, volume = {261}, number = {}, pages = {109213}, pmid = {34548673}, issn = {0006-3207}, abstract = {When COVID-19 arrived, usual human activity around the world paused or slowed, and nature responded to the opportunity. Even in major urban areas, people remarked on the clearer, crisper, star- brightened night skies. This issue's collection of interesting papers provides insights into ways the natural world responded, but it would seem worthwhile to take a step back and frame that phenomenon in its intellectual and epidemiological context.}, }
@article {pmid34548646, year = {2021}, author = {Flowers, CC}, title = {Hurricane Ida shows the one-two punch of poverty and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {597}, number = {7877}, pages = {449}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-02520-8}, pmid = {34548646}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {COVID-19/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*economics/mortality ; Cyclonic Storms/*economics/mortality ; Disasters/*economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Goals ; Humans ; Louisiana/epidemiology ; Neoplasms/epidemiology ; Politics ; *Poverty/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Racism/economics/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Sanitation ; *Social Justice/economics/trends ; Sustainable Development/economics/trends ; *Vulnerable Populations/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid34547948, year = {2021}, author = {Birch, M and van Bergen, L}, title = {The trust deficit: pandemic, disarmament, climate change and the securitization of health.}, journal = {Medicine, conflict, and survival}, volume = {37}, number = {3}, pages = {173-176}, doi = {10.1080/13623699.2021.1972528}, pmid = {34547948}, issn = {1362-3699}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Pandemics/prevention &amp; control ; Security Measures ; *Trust ; }, }
@article {pmid34545460, year = {2022}, author = {Basch, CH and Yalamanchili, B and Fera, J}, title = {#Climate Change on TikTok: A Content Analysis of Videos.}, journal = {Journal of community health}, volume = {47}, number = {1}, pages = {163-167}, pmid = {34545460}, issn = {1573-3610}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Emotions ; Humans ; Public Health ; *Social Media ; Video Recording ; }, abstract = {Current day youth have an important role in climate activism, as the decisions and policies made now will have long lasting impacts on the climate and sustainability. Climate change is becoming an increasing concern for younger generations. As such, the purpose of this study was to describe content related to climate change on TikTok. This study included 100 English-language videos related to climate change featured on TikTok. The hashtag #climatechange was chosen because it had the most views of any related hashtag at the time of the study. The number of views, comments, and likes were recorded for each video. Each video was also observed for the presence of predetermined content characteristics. The 100 videos sampled collectively received 205,551,200 views, 40, 203,400 likes, and 666,089 comments. Only eight of the 100 videos included information from a reputable source. Only three of the characteristics were featured in a majority (> 50) of the videos. These were, presents climate change as real (93), affected populations (76), and climate anxiety/frustration (57). Videos mentioning natural disasters garnered 63,453,100 (30.87%) views, 14,245,200 (35.43%) likes, and 236,493 (35.50%) comments. In all, 73 of the 100 videos mentioned at least one environmental impact. Videos including this theme earned 156,677,200 (76.22%) views, 32,000,700 (79.60%) likes, and 563,195 (84.55%) comments. Social media platforms such as TikTok are important tools for understanding popular opinion regarding public health issues such as global climate change. However, the presence of credible professionals is essential on platforms such as TikTok to increase the chances that messaging is as comprehensive as time allows, while also being scientifically sound.}, }
@article {pmid34543962, year = {2021}, author = {Mendoza-Ponce, A and Corona-Núñez, RO and Nava, LF and Estrada, F and Calderón-Bustamante, O and Martínez-Meyer, E and Carabias, J and Larralde-Corona, AH and Barrios, M and Pardo-Villegas, PD}, title = {Impacts of land management and climate change in a developing and socioenvironmental challenging transboundary region.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {300}, number = {}, pages = {113748}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113748}, pmid = {34543962}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; }, abstract = {Land-use/cover change is the major cause of terrestrial ecosystem degradation. However, its impacts will be exacerbated due to climate change and population growth, driving agricultural expansion because of higher demand of food and lower agricultural yields in some tropical areas. International strategies aimed to mitigate impacts of climate change and land use-cover change are challenging in developing regions. This study aims to evaluate alternatives to minimize the impacts of these threats under socioeconomic trajectories, in one of the biologically richest regions in Guatemala and Mexico. This study is located at the Usumacinta watershed, a transboundary region that shares a common history, with similar biophysical properties and economic constraints which have led to large land use/cover changes. To understand the impacts on deforestation and carbon emissions of different land-management practices, we developed three scenarios (1): business as usual (BAU), (2) a reducing emissions scenario aimed to reduce deforestation and degradation (REDD+), and (3) zero-deforestation from 2030 onwards based on the international commitments. Our results suggest that by 2050, natural land cover might reduce 22.3 and 12.2% of its extent under the BAU and REDD + scenarios, respectively in comparison with 2012. However, the zero-deforestation scenario shows that by 2050, it would be possible to avoid losing 22.4% of the forested watershed (1.7 million ha) and recover 5.9% (0.4 million hectares) of it. In terms of carbon sequestration, REDD + projects can reduce the carbon losses in natural vegetation, but a zero-deforestation policy can double the carbon sequestration produced by REDD + projects only. This study shows that to reduce the pressures on ecosystems, particularly in regions highly marginalized with significant migration, it is necessary to implement transboundary land-management policies that also integrate poverty alleviation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid34543791, year = {2022}, author = {Gonçalves, C and Honrado, JP and Cerejeira, J and Sousa, R and Fernandes, PM and Vaz, AS and Alves, M and Araújo, M and Carvalho-Santos, C and Fonseca, A and Fraga, H and Gonçalves, JF and Lomba, A and Pinto, E and Vicente, JR and Santos, JA}, title = {On the development of a regional climate change adaptation plan: Integrating model-assisted projections and stakeholders' perceptions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {805}, number = {}, pages = {150320}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150320}, pmid = {34543791}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have strong social-ecological implications, with global but especially regional and local challenges. To assess the climatic vulnerability of a given territory, it is necessary to evaluate its exposure to climate change and its adaptive capacity. This study describes the development of an Action Plan for Adapting to Climate Change in the Tâmega and Sousa Region, a mountainous inter-municipal community in the North of Portugal. The goals were to identify the main impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, and socioeconomic sectors, as well as to develop a plan, merging local and scientific knowledge through a transdisciplinary lens. This study describes an approach that combines modelling methods, applied in the different sectors, and participatory methods, based on the analysis of the perceptions of local actors. Results indicate that the target region will experience a generalized increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, which will negatively impact all studied social-ecological dimensions. Overall, local business and institutional agents perceive the primary and tourism sectors as the most vulnerable in the region. The described framework demonstrates the engagement process between relevant scientific experts and local practitioners, as well as how it is critical to understand the impacts of climate change and to support the co-design of an adaptation plan, which in turn can guide political and economic decision-making towards effective implementation of the plan. In addition, the difficulties and challenges encountered during this process are discussed to support future plans and strategies for local adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid34543498, year = {2021}, author = {Schickele, A and Guidetti, P and Giakoumi, S and Zenetos, A and Francour, P and Raybaud, V}, title = {Improving predictions of invasive fish ranges combining functional and ecological traits with environmental suitability under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {23}, pages = {6086-6102}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15896}, pmid = {34543498}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation/ ; //Provence-Alpes-C&#xf4;te-d'Azur (PACA) Region in partnership with the Comit&#xe9; R&#xe9;gional des P&#xea;ches Maritimes et des Elevages Marins (CRPMEM) de PACA/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fishes ; *Introduced Species ; Mediterranean Sea ; }, abstract = {Biological invasions represent one of the main threats to marine biodiversity. From a conservation perspective, especially in the context of increasing sea warming, it is critical to examine the suitability potential of geographical areas for the arrival of Range-Expanding Introduced and Native Species (REINS), and hence anticipate the risk of such species to become invasive in their new distribution areas. Here, we developed an empirical index, based on functional and bio-ecological traits, that estimates the Invasive Potential (IP; i.e. the potential success in transport, introduction and population establishment) for a set of 13 fishes that are expanding their distributional range into the Mediterranean Sea, the most invaded sea in the world. The IP index showed significant correlation with the observed spreading of REINS. For the six species characterized by the highest IP, we calculated contemporary and future projections of their Environmental Suitability Index (ESI). By using an ensemble modelling approach, we estimated the geographical areas that are likely to be the most impacted by REINS spreading under climate change. Our results demonstrated the importance of functional traits related to reproduction for determining high invasion potential. For most species, we found high contemporary ESI values in the South-eastern Mediterranean Sea and low to intermediate contemporary ESI values in the Adriatic Sea and North-western Mediterranean sector. Moreover, we highlighted a major potential future expansion of high ESI values, and thus REINS IP, towards the northern Mediterranean, especially in the northern Adriatic Sea. This potential future northward expansion highlights the risk associated with climate-induced impacts on ecosystem conservation and fish stock management throughout the entire Mediterranean Sea.}, }
@article {pmid34542108, year = {2021}, author = {Grace, D and Lee, HS and Smith, J}, title = {Introduction - Veterinary Services in a changing world: climate change and other external factors.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {371-382}, doi = {10.20506/rst.40.2.3230}, pmid = {34542108}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid34542106, year = {2021}, author = {Stephen, C and Soos, C}, title = {The implications of climate change for Veterinary Services.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {421-430}, doi = {10.20506/rst.40.2.3234}, pmid = {34542106}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Droughts ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Livestock ; }, abstract = {Climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is one of the most pressing issues facing society on a global scale. The growth of GHG emissions between 2000 and 2010 was higher than in each of the previous three decades, and each of the past four decades has been successively warmer than any preceding decades since 1850. Continued GHG emissions will cause further warming and changes in the climate system. Climate change affects livestock production in multiple ways, both directly and indirectly. Many of the impacts on the livestock sector result from increasing frequency and magnitude of weather and climate extremes such as droughts, flash floods, untimely rains, frost, hail and severe storms. This article describes some of the most vulnerable disaster communities in Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe and South America. It then describes the importance of meteorological information provided by national Meteorological and Hydrological Services to help Veterinary Services support sustainable management of livestock in vulnerable pastoral communities.}, }
@article {pmid34541671, year = {2021}, author = {Leung, A and Sage, RF}, title = {Digest: Between invasive species and a hot place: Plant evolution under climate change.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {75}, number = {12}, pages = {3214-3215}, doi = {10.1111/evo.14352}, pmid = {34541671}, issn = {1558-5646}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Introduced Species ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Will climate change lead to invasive species evolving faster than native or naturalized species? Gianoli and Molina-Montenegro showed that, under warming and drought, the evolution of photosynthetic capacity does not always favor invasive species. These data raise interesting questions for the study of evolution of invasive species under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34541525, year = {2021}, author = {Bailey, C and Farrell, A and Purty, T and Taylor, A and Disney, J}, title = {Development of Privacy Features on Anecdata.org, a Free Citizen Science Platform for Collecting Datasets for Climate Change and Related Projects.}, journal = {Frontiers in climate}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {34541525}, issn = {2624-9553}, support = {P20 GM103423/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; R25 GM129796/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {The Anecdata website and its corresponding mobile app provide unique features to meet the needs of a wide variety of diverse citizen science projects from across the world. The platform has been developed with the help of continuous feedback from community partners, project leaders, and website users and currently hosts more than 200 projects. Over 8,000 registered users have contributed more than 30,000 images and over 50,000 observations since the platform became open to the public in 2014. From its inception, one of the core tenets of Anecdata's mission has been to make data from citizen science projects freely accessible to project participants and the general public, and in the platform's first few years, it followed a completely open data access model. As the platform has grown, hosting ever more projects, we have found that this model does not meet all project needs, especially where endangered species, property access rights, participant safety in the field, and personal privacy are concerned. We first introduced features for data and user privacy as part of "All About Arsenic," a National Institutes of Health (NIH)/National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) Science Education Partnership Award (SEPA)-funded project at MDI Biological Laboratory, which engages middle and high school teachers and students from schools across Maine and New Hampshire in sampling their home well water for analysis of arsenic and other heavy metals. In order to host this project on Anecdata, we developed features for spatial privacy or "geoprivacy" to conceal the coordinates of samplers' homes, partial data redaction tools we call "private fields" to withhold certain sample registration questions from public datasets, and "participant anonymity" to conceal which user account uploaded an observation. We describe the impetus for the creation of these features, challenges we encountered, and our technical approach. While these features were originally developed for the purposes of a public health and science literacy project, they are now available to all project leaders setting up projects on Anecdata.org and have been adopted by a number of projects, including Mass Audubon's Eastern Meadowlark Survey, South Carolina Aquarium's SeaRise, and Coastal Signs of the Seasons (SOS) Monitoring projects.}, }
@article {pmid34541351, year = {2021}, author = {Okon, EM and Falana, BM and Solaja, SO and Yakubu, SO and Alabi, OO and Okikiola, BT and Awe, TE and Adesina, BT and Tokula, BE and Kipchumba, AK and Edeme, AB}, title = {Systematic review of climate change impact research in Nigeria: implication for sustainable development.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {e07941}, pmid = {34541351}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {There is evidence that Nigeria is already experiencing environmental challenges attributed to climate change (CC) and its impacts. This has clearly highlighted the need for knowledge-based strategies to help plan adequate mitigation and adaptation measures for the country. One of the basic requirements to ensure such strategies is the development of a database of national CC research. This will aid in the assessment of past and present scientific publications from which directions for future study can be mapped. The present study used standard, systematic, and bibliographic literature reviews to analyse the trend, focus, spatial variability, and effectiveness of published research on CC impacts in Nigeria. Four thematic areas of CC impact research were defined: Agriculture, Environment, Human and Multi-disciplinary study. A total of 701 articles were found to be relevant and the review shows that CC impacts and adaptations in the literature vary across research categories and locations. The period between 2011 (68 studies) and 2015 (80 studies) showed a tremendous rise in CC impact research with a peak in 2014 (84 studies). Studies in the agriculture category had the highest publications in 23 States of Nigeria. The review revealed three research gaps: (1) lack of research that investigated the magnitude of present and potential future impacts in the aquatic environment (2) little attention on CC impacts and adaptation in the Northern regions of Nigeria (3) absence of study investigating the effects of multiple variables of CC at the same time. The findings suggest that it would be useful to advance CC research in Nigeria beyond perceptive approaches to more quantitative ones. This is particularly important for highly vulnerable animals, crops, locations, and for better planning of adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid34540520, year = {2022}, author = {Lastra Landa, DE and Bueno, CVG}, title = {"Climate change might have caused our small harvest": indigenous vulnerability, livelihoods, and environmental changes in lowland and high jungle indigenous communities in Peru.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {216-231}, pmid = {34540520}, issn = {2190-6483}, abstract = {The purpose of this article is to analyze how indigenous livelihoods are challenged by the global phenomenon of climate change while paying particular attention to how historically shaped, non-climatic factors influence how climate change is experienced in the Peruvian Amazon. In this sense, we will address indigenous people's lived experiences of climate variations using a theoretical framework based on concepts of vulnerability. Methodologically, we draw on both a recent literature review and fieldwork conducted during 2015 and 2016 with two Kukama Kukamiria communities in Loreto (low jungle) and three Ashaninka communities in Junín (high jungle). After describing our theoretical framework and qualitative methods, we discuss the economic history of the addressed areas and show how non-climatic factors, such as colonialism, influence these communities' experiences. This context allows us to better understand indigenous people's experience of seasonal variations, precipitations and climatic events, its effect on their livelihoods, and their adaptive strategies in response to challenges imposed by climate unpredictability and broader transformations in their territories. Our conclusions are twofold: (a) addressing climate change must incorporate multiple temporal and spatial scales and (b) non-climatic factors are integral to understanding the role of climate change vulnerability of indigenous population.}, }
@article {pmid34539239, year = {2021}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Wall, T and Alves, F and Nagy, GJ and Fernández Carril, LR and Li, C and Mucova, S and Platje Joost, J and Rayman-Bacchus, L and Totin, E and Ayal, DY and Lütz, JM and Azeiteiro, UM and Vinuesa, AG and Minhas, A}, title = {The impacts of the early outset of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change research: Implications for policy-making.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; policy}, volume = {124}, number = {}, pages = {267-278}, pmid = {34539239}, issn = {1462-9011}, abstract = {Since January 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has dominated the media and exercises pressure on governments worldwide. Apart from its effects on economies, education systems and societies, the pandemic has also influenced climate change research. This paper examines the extent to which COVID-19 has influenced climate change research worldwide during the first wave at the beginning of 2020 and how it is perceived to exploit it in the future. This study utilised an international survey involving those dedicated to climate change science and management research from Academia, Government, NGOs, and international agencies in 83 countries. The analysis of responses encompasses four independent variables: Institutions, Regions, Scientific Areas, and the level of economic development represented by the Human Development Index (HDI). Results show that: (1) COVID-19 modified the way the surveyed researchers work, (2) there are indicators that COVID-19 has already influenced the direction of climate change and adaptation policy implementation, and (3) respondents perceived (explicitly concerning the COVID-19 lockdowns of March-April 2020), that the pandemic has drawn attention away from climate policy. COVID- 19 has influenced the agenda of climate change research for more than half of the respondents and is likely to continue in the future, suggesting that the impacts on their research will still be felt for many years. The paper concludes by outlining critical implications for policy-making.}, }
@article {pmid34538143, year = {2021}, author = {Morales-Castilla, I and Pappalardo, P and Farrell, MJ and Aguirre, AA and Huang, S and Gehman, AM and Dallas, T and Gravel, D and Davies, TJ}, title = {Forecasting parasite sharing under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {1837}, pages = {20200360}, pmid = {34538143}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Artiodactyla/*parasitology ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; *Models, Biological ; North America ; Parasitology/*methods ; Perissodactyla/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {Species are shifting their distributions in response to climate change. This geographic reshuffling may result in novel co-occurrences among species, which could lead to unseen biotic interactions, including the exchange of parasites between previously isolated hosts. Identifying potential new host-parasite interactions would improve forecasting of disease emergence and inform proactive disease surveillance. However, accurate predictions of future cross-species disease transmission have been hampered by the lack of a generalized approach and data availability. Here, we propose a framework to predict novel host-parasite interactions based on a combination of niche modelling of future host distributions and parasite sharing models. Using the North American ungulates as a proof of concept, we show this approach has high cross-validation accuracy in over 85% of modelled parasites and find that more than 34% of the host-parasite associations forecasted by our models have already been recorded in the literature. We discuss potential sources of uncertainty and bias that may affect our results and similar forecasting approaches, and propose pathways to generate increasingly accurate predictions. Our results indicate that forecasting parasite sharing in response to shifts in host geographic distributions allow for the identification of regions and taxa most susceptible to emergent pathogens under climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.}, }
@article {pmid34537948, year = {2021}, author = {Ruklani, S and Rubasinghe, SCK and Jayasuriya, G}, title = {A review of frameworks for using bryophytes as indicators of climate change with special emphasis on Sri Lankan bryoflora.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {43}, pages = {60425-60437}, pmid = {34537948}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {20-007//National Research Council Sri Lanka/ ; }, mesh = {*Bryophyta ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Phylogeny ; Sri Lanka ; }, abstract = {The tropical island of Sri Lanka, with a land area of 65,610 km[2] and 1340 km of coastline, is highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change, with detrimental effects on agriculture, water resources, human health, coastal zones, infrastructure, industry, and biodiversity. A general increase in temperature and precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and increase in weather-related natural disasters, such as floods and droughts, have been traced over the years. Bryophytes (liverworts, mosses, hornworts) occupy a pivotal position in the land plant evolution and form a unique part of the vegetation. Many taxa of bryophytes exhibit observable, distinct adaptations in response to changes in environmental conditions quickly. Bryophytes can be used to monitor climate change in two ways; (i) presence or absence in the ecosystem and (ii) changes in morphology and physiology that can be used for monitoring. Sri Lanka has a rich bryophyte flora consisting of 575 species of mosses, 338 species of liverworts, and 07 species of hornworts. It is estimated that 11% of mosses are endemic; there are no endemic thalloid liverworts or hornworts found in Sri Lanka, and the endemicity of leafy liverworts is yet to be investigated. The taxonomic status of endemic taxa and the biogeographic affinities of many taxa remain unexplored. Further, the potential use of bryophytes as indicators of climate change in Sri Lanka has not yet been investigated. This paper compiles the information on morphological and physiological responses of bryophytes to elevated temperature, increase in greenhouse gases, increased ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation, and fluctuations in humidity. In the light of this gathered global knowledge, possible species of bryophytes to be used in assessing and predicting climate change and developing a climate change model in Sri Lanka are proposed. Asian bryophytes, in general, have poorly been represented in climate change literature. We believe that this knowledge will form the foundation for future research focused on climate change mitigation in other tropical and Asian countries.}, }
@article {pmid34537689, year = {2022}, author = {Yin, G and Wang, G and Zhang, X and Wang, X and Hu, Q and Shrestha, S and Hao, F}, title = {Multi-scale assessment of water security under climate change in North China in the past two decades.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {805}, number = {}, pages = {150103}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150103}, pmid = {34537689}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; Water ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change is projected to affect the hydrological cycles in China, while the effects are expected to vary spatiotemporally. Understanding the variations in water security conditions and their sensitivity to climatic variables is crucial for assessing regional ecosystem responses to climate change. In the present study, we estimated the water yield capacity, an important indicator of water security in North China (NC), at a spatial resolution of 1 km during the last two decades based on the Budyko framework and quantified the sensitivity of water yield change to climate change among different vegetation types. The results showed that the performances of the Budyko framework were reliable both at the pixel scale and across large watersheds. The annual water yield in North China was estimated to be 7.61 ± 2.67 ∗ 10[10] m[3]/yr, with an average mean water yield (MWY) of 49.51 ± 17.49 mm/yr. The spatial pattern of mean water yield change (MWYC) exhibited high heterogeneity; 46% of the study region was dominated by an increasing trend, while 9.84% was statistically significant (P < 0.05). Compared with temperature, the water yield capacity was more sensitive to precipitation variation. A consistent trend of variation was found in cropland between water yield and precipitation, while negative sensitivity coefficients were found in natural vegetation types. The variation in sensitivity coefficients (Swyp) in natural vegetation showed that in regions with a decrease in precipitation, the variation in water yield capacity also decreased, while in regions with an increase in precipitation from 0 to 8 mm/yr, the water yield capacity first decreased and then increased with precipitation. Our findings suggest that grass and shrubs would be more beneficial to regional water security in North China's revegetation, while afforestation would provide protection for the regional environment from extreme rainfall events.}, }
@article {pmid34537496, year = {2021}, author = {Ergin, E and Altinel, B and Aktas, E}, title = {A mixed method study on global warming, climate change and the role of public health nurses from the perspective of nursing students.}, journal = {Nurse education today}, volume = {107}, number = {}, pages = {105144}, doi = {10.1016/j.nedt.2021.105144}, pmid = {34537496}, issn = {1532-2793}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate ; Global Warming ; Health Services ; Humans ; *Nurses, Public Health ; *Students, Nursing ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {AIM: This study aims to evaluate the knowledge and awareness of the nursing students taking the Public Health Nursing course about global warming, climate change, the impact on health and the role of the public health nurse.<br><br>DESIGN: The study is a mixed method study that includes descriptive data and focus group discussions on global warming, the effects of climate change and the role of the public health nurse.<br><br>METHODS: The data were collected from the nursing faculty of a university located in the Central Anatolia region, where agricultural lands are widespread and climate change effects are most commonly observed. The data were collected from 154 undergraduate senior nursing students between February 2020 and May 2020. Firstly, the students completed the Global Warming Questionnaire that includes 26 items about global warming, climate change, their effects and the role of the public health nurse. Secondly, some students (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;19) selected through the purposive sampling method participated in online focus group meetings.<br><br>RESULTS: Our study revealed that 87.7% of the students know the main cause of climate change. The mean scale scores of the students who watch documentaries on the environment, who participate in activities related to the environment, and who know that climate change, sustainable development and health services are closely related were found to be statistically significantly higher (p&#xa0;&#x2264;&#xa0;0.005). The views of the students on global warming and the environment were analyzed in focus group interviews according to five themes (global warming perception; the impact of global warming on health; methods of protection; roles of nurses; nursing education).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Global warming and climate change are sensitive and important issues that cannot be evaluated considering only knowledge level.<br><br>IMPACT: Global warming, climate change, their effects on health and the roles and responsibilities of nurses need to be included in the nursing curricula so that health professionals who can take measures against global warming, climate change and their health effects can be educated.}, }
@article {pmid34537076, year = {2021}, author = {Morgado, ME and Jiang, C and Zambrana, J and Upperman, CR and Mitchell, C and Boyle, M and Sapkota, AR and Sapkota, A}, title = {Climate change, extreme events, and increased risk of salmonellosis: foodborne diseases active surveillance network (FoodNet), 2004-2014.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {105}, pmid = {34537076}, issn = {1476-069X}, support = {P2C HD041041/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; UE1 EH001049/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; *Extreme Weather ; Female ; Foodborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Risk ; Salmonella Infections/*epidemiology ; United States ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Infections with nontyphoidal Salmonella cause an estimated 19,336 hospitalizations each year in the United States. Sources of infection can vary by state and include animal and plant-based foods, as well as environmental reservoirs. Several studies have recognized the importance of increased ambient temperature and precipitation in the spread and persistence of Salmonella in soil and food. However, the impact of extreme weather events on Salmonella infection rates among the most prevalent serovars, has not been fully evaluated across distinct U.S. regions.<br><br>METHODS: To address this knowledge gap, we obtained Salmonella case data for S. Enteriditis, S. Typhimurium, S. Newport, and S. Javiana (2004-2014; n = 32,951) from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), and weather data from the National Climatic Data Center (1960-2014). Extreme heat and precipitation events for the study period (2004-2014) were identified using location and calendar day specific 95[th] percentile thresholds derived using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989). Negative binomial generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between exposure to extreme events and salmonellosis rates.<br><br>RESULTS: We observed that extreme heat exposure was associated with increased rates of infection with S. Newport in Maryland (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR): 1.07, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.01, 1.14), and Tennessee (IRR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.09), both FoodNet sites with high densities of animal feeding operations (e.g., broiler chickens and cattle). Extreme precipitation events were also associated with increased rates of S. Javiana infections, by 22% in Connecticut (IRR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.35) and by 5% in Georgia (IRR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.08), respectively. In addition, there was an 11% (IRR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04-1.18) increased rate of S. Newport infections in Maryland associated with extreme precipitation events.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our study suggests a stronger association between extreme precipitation events, compared to extreme heat, and salmonellosis across multiple U.S. regions. In addition, the rates of infection with Salmonella serovars that persist in environmental or plant-based reservoirs, such as S. Javiana and S. Newport, appear to be of particular significance regarding increased heat and rainfall events.}, }
@article {pmid34536285, year = {2021}, author = {Bakken, S}, title = {Climate change, security, privacy, and data sharing: Important areas for advocacy and informatics solutions.}, journal = {Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA}, volume = {28}, number = {10}, pages = {2072-2073}, pmid = {34536285}, issn = {1527-974X}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Computer Security ; Confidentiality ; Informatics ; *Information Dissemination ; *Privacy ; }, }
@article {pmid34536253, year = {2021}, author = {Schimel, DS and Corley, JC}, title = {Climate change and western wildfires.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {e02452}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2452}, pmid = {34536253}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Fires ; Forests ; *Wildfires ; }, }
@article {pmid34531589, year = {2021}, author = {Chambers, T and Hales, S and Shaw, C and Baker, M and Ball, J and Cleghorn, C and Wilson, N}, title = {New Zealand's Climate Change Commission report: the critical need to address the missing health co-benefits of reducing emissions.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {134}, number = {1542}, pages = {109-118}, pmid = {34531589}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {COVID-19/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; New Zealand/epidemiology ; Pandemics/prevention &amp; control ; Public Health/*trends ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {The Climate Change Commission's draft report and recommendations provide a pathway towards achieving the New Zealand Government's commitment to net zero emissions by 2050. However, the Commission has not adequately considered the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation. In this viewpoint, we assess how the Commission has considered health co-benefits in the key response domains. Extrapolating UK evidence to the New Zealand context suggests climate change mitigation strategies that reduce air pollution, transition the population towards plant-based diets and increase physical activity via active transport could prevent thousands of deaths per year in coming decades. Substantial health co-benefits would also arise from improved housing, cleaner water, noise reductions, afforestation and more compact cities. The Commission's draft report only briefly mentions many of these health co-benefits, and some are completely absent. We recommend the Commission's final report: (i) use health co-benefits as an explicit frame; (ii) ensure the government's Treaty of Waitangi obligations are met in all the domains covered to maximise benefits for Māori health and wellbeing; (iii) build on the successful COVID-19 response that demonstrated rapid, science-informed and vigorous government action can address major global health threats; (iv) include both public health expertise and Māori health expertise among its commissioners; (v) explain how health co-benefits are likely to generate major cost-savings to the health system.}, }
@article {pmid34531418, year = {2021}, author = {Moon, TH and Chae, Y and Lee, DS and Kim, DH and Kim, HG}, title = {Analyzing climate change impacts on health, energy, water resources, and biodiversity sectors for effective climate change policy in South Korea.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {18512}, pmid = {34531418}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {This study analyzes how climate change affects the economy, society, and environment in South Korea. Then, the study explores the ways to strengthen capabilities that can alleviate climate change impacts. To find them, the study employs a system dynamics simulation method and builds a model with several sectors including the urban, rural, population, and social-environmental sectors. The study compares the size of climate change damages in rural and urban areas. The results with representative concentration path (RCP) 8.5 show that the size of climate change damage will continue to increase by 2050. The projected damages from the reduced industrial outputs in urban areas will be larger than that in rural areas. The results also show that the service sector will face stronger impacts from climate change than the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. However, the total size of damage in the rural areas will be bigger than that of the urban areas. It is because the size of reduced industrial outputs per capita in the rural areas is twice bigger than that of the urban areas. The climate change damage in the social and environmental sectors (including a loss of biodiversity and an increase in health costs) account for the largest part of the total damage. The study finally provides suggestions and policies that can improve the capabilities to reduce the climate change damages. One of the major suggestions of this study is that the increase in the climate change budget corresponding to the GDP growth can minimize the size of climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid34529970, year = {2022}, author = {Guzmán, P and Tarín-Carrasco, P and Morales-Suárez-Varela, M and Jiménez-Guerrero, P}, title = {Effects of air pollution on dementia over Europe for present and future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {204}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {112012}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.112012}, pmid = {34529970}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis/toxicity ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Dementia/chemically induced/epidemiology ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; }, abstract = {The scientific literature is scarce when referring to the influence of atmospheric pollutants on neurodegenerative diseases for present and future climate change scenarios. In this sense, this contribution evaluates the incidence of dementia (Alzheimer's disease, AD, and dementia from unspecified cause, DU) occurring in Europe associated with the exposure to air pollution (essentially NO2 and PM2.5) for the present climatic period (1991-2010) and for a future climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 2031-2050). The GEMM methodology has been applied to air pollution simulations using the chemistry/climate regional model WRF-Chem. Present population data were obtained from NASA's Center for Socioeconomic Data and Applications (SEDAC); while future population projections for the year 2050 were derived from the United Nations (UN) Department of Economic and Social Affairs-Population Dynamics. Overall, the estimated incidence rate (cases per year) of AD and DU associated with exposure to air pollution over Europe is 498,000 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 348,600-647,400] and 314,000 (95% CI 257,500-401,900), respectively. An important increase in the future incidence rate is projected (around 72% for both types of dementia) when considering the effect of climate change together with the foreseen changes in the future population, because of the expected aging of European population. The climate penalty (impacts of future climate change alone on air quality) has a limited effect on the total changes of dementia (approx. 0.5%), because the large increase in the incidence rate over southern Europe is offset by its decrease over more northern countries, favored by an improvement of air pollution caused by the projected enhancement of rainfall.}, }
@article {pmid34529873, year = {2021}, author = {Holland, OJ and Young, MA and Sherman, CDH and Tan, MH and Gorfine, H and Matthews, T and Miller, AD}, title = {Ocean warming threatens key trophic interactions supporting a commercial fishery in a climate change hotspot.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {24}, pages = {6498-6511}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15889}, pmid = {34529873}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Aquatic Organisms ; Australia ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Worldwide, rising ocean temperatures are causing declines and range shifts in marine species. The direct effects of climate change on the biology of marine organisms are often well documented; yet, knowledge on the indirect effects, particularly through trophic interactions, is largely lacking. We provide evidence of ocean warming decoupling critical trophic interactions supporting a commercially important mollusc in a climate change hotspot. Dietary assessments of the Australian blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) indicate primary dependency on a widespread macroalgal species (Phyllospora comosa) which we show to be in state of decline due to ocean warming, resulting in abalone biomass reductions. Niche models suggest further declines in P. comosa over the coming decades and ongoing risks to H. rubra. This study highlights the importance of studies from climate change hotspots and understanding the interplay between climate and trophic interactions when determining the likely response of marine species to environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid34529217, year = {2022}, author = {Wiesing, U}, title = {Climate change and the different roles of physicians: a critical response to "A Planetary Health Pledge for Health Professionals in the Anthropocene".}, journal = {Medicine, health care, and philosophy}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {161-164}, pmid = {34529217}, issn = {1572-8633}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Physicians ; }, abstract = {The article critically responds to "A Planetary Health Pledge for Health Professionals in the Anthropocene" which was published by Wabnitz et al. in The Lancet in November 2020. It focuses on the different roles and responsibilities of a physician. The pledge is criticised because it neglects the different roles, gives no answers in case of conflicting goals, and contains numerous inconsistencies. The relationship between the Planetary Health Pledge and the Declaration of Geneva is examined. It is argued that the Planetary Health Pledge should have supplemented the Declaration of Geneva instead of changing it.}, }
@article {pmid34526279, year = {2021}, author = {Dagdeviren, H and Elangovan, A and Parimalavalli, R}, title = {Climate change, monsoon failures and inequality of impacts in South India.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {299}, number = {}, pages = {113555}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113555}, pmid = {34526279}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Farms ; Humans ; India ; }, abstract = {This article examines the structural aspects of climate vulnerabilities in the context of monsoon failures. The paper is based on a unique household survey, conducted in Tamil Nadu, India. The study uses a rural differentiation framework to interrogate unequal vulnerabilities to monsoon failures, based on measures such as Gini coefficients and Lorenz curves of monetary losses. Results show that negative consequences of climate change in general, and monsoon failures in particular, intensify pre-existing socio-economic disparities. When the rural differentiation theory is applied in a broader sense, the analysis shows that landed and farming households have greater exposure and losses. When we move beyond these aggregate categories, the revelation is that households with pre-existing disadvantages such as marginal landholders, subsistence farmers and agricultural workers are more vulnerable.}, }
@article {pmid34525713, year = {2022}, author = {Birkmann, J and Jamshed, A and McMillan, JM and Feldmeyer, D and Totin, E and Solecki, W and Ibrahim, ZZ and Roberts, D and Kerr, RB and Poertner, HO and Pelling, M and Djalante, R and Garschagen, M and Leal Filho, W and Guha-Sapir, D and Alegría, A}, title = {Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {803}, number = {}, pages = {150065}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150065}, pmid = {34525713}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Floods ; Humans ; Sea Level Rise ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already.}, }
@article {pmid34525430, year = {2021}, author = {Ferretto, A and Brooker, R and Matthews, R and Smith, P}, title = {Climate change and drinking water from Scottish peatlands: Where increasing DOC is an issue?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {300}, number = {}, pages = {113688}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113688}, pmid = {34525430}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Drinking Water ; Scotland ; *Water Purification ; }, abstract = {Increasing levels of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have been detected in the last decades in water bodies of the Northern hemisphere, and climate change might fuel this rise. For drinking water reservoirs located in peatland catchments, already subjected to elevated amounts of DOC that needs to be removed, this might pose a further problem. Scotland is predicted to face warmer temperatures and a change in rainfall patterns, which will result in more frequent and severe summer droughts and in heavier winter precipitation. These conditions are not ideal for peatlands, which may undergo a drastic reduction in area. Using two bioclimatic envelope models (Blanket bog Tree model and Lindsay Modified model) that project blanket bog distribution in Scotland in the 2050s, we extracted the area of blanket bog that is at risk of loss. Assuming that part of the carbon stored in this area is likely to be lost, we calculated how much of it could be added to DOC in catchments that contain public drinking water reservoirs each year. This analysis is a first estimate of the risk for the provision of drinking water from peatlands in Scotland due to climate change. The aim is to identify the catchments that may face the highest consequences of future climates in terms of the concentration of DOC ([DOC]), where more sophisticated water treatments might be needed. Our results show a great variability among the catchments, with only a few being unaffected by this problem, whereas others could experience substantial seasonal increase in [DOC]. This highlights the necessity to frequently monitor DOC levels in the reservoirs located in catchments where the major problems could arise, and to take the necessary measures to reduce it. Given that peatland condition and vegetation cover play a fundamental role in influencing DOC losses, this study also offers an indication of where peatland restoration might be useful to counteract the projected DOC increase and bring the highest benefits in terms of safe drinking water provision.}, }
@article {pmid34524106, year = {2021}, author = {Bhawra, J and Skinner, K and Favel, D and Green, B and Coates, K and Katapally, TR}, title = {The Food Equity and Environmental Data Sovereignty (FEEDS) Project: Protocol for a Quasi-Experimental Study Evaluating a Digital Platform for Climate Change Preparedness.}, journal = {JMIR research protocols}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e31389}, pmid = {34524106}, issn = {1929-0748}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Despite having the tools at our disposal to enable an adequate food supply for all people, inequities in food acquisition, distribution, and most importantly, food sovereignty, worsen food insecurity. The detrimental impact of climate change on food systems and mental health is further exacerbated by a lack of food sovereignty. We urgently require innovative solutions to enable food sovereignty, minimize food insecurity, and address climate change-related mental distress (ie, solastalgia). Indigenous communities have a wealth of Traditional Knowledge for climate change adaptation and preparedness to strengthen food systems. Traditional Knowledge combined with Western methods can revolutionize ethical data collection, engagement, and knowledge mobilization.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The Food Equity and Environmental Data Sovereignty (FEEDS) Project takes a participatory action, citizen science approach for early detection and warning of climate change impacts on food sovereignty, food security, and solastalgia. The aim of this project is to develop and implement a sustainable digital platform that enables real-time decision-making to mitigate climate change-related impacts on food systems and mental well-being.<br><br>METHODS: Citizen science enables citizens to actively contribute to all aspects of the research process. The FEEDS Project is being implemented in five phases: participatory project planning, digital climate change platform customization, community-led evaluation, digital platform and project refinement, and integrated knowledge translation. The project is governed by a Citizen Scientist Advisory Council comprising Elders, Traditional Knowledge Keepers, key community decision makers, youth, and FEEDS Project researchers. The Council governs all phases of the project, including coconceptualizing a climate change platform, which consists of a smartphone app and a digital decision-making dashboard. Apart from capturing environmental and health-related big data (eg, weather, permafrost degradation, fire hazards, and human movement), the custom-built app uses artificial intelligence to engage and enable citizens to report on environmental hazards, changes in biodiversity or wildlife, and related food and mental health issues in their communities. The app provides citizens with valuable information to mitigate health-related risks and relays big data in real time to a digital dashboard.<br><br>RESULTS: This project is currently in phase 1, with the subarctic M&#xe9;tis jurisdiction of &#xce;le-&#xe0;-la-Crosse, Saskatchewan, Canada.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The FEEDS Project facilitates Indigenous Peoples' self-determination, governance, and data sovereignty. All citizen data are anonymous and encrypted, and communities have ownership, access, control, and possession of their data. The digital dashboard system provides decision makers with real-time data, thereby increasing the capacity to self-govern. The participatory action research approach, combined with digital citizen science, advances the cocreation of knowledge and multidisciplinary collaboration in the digital age. Given the urgency of climate change, leveraging technology provides communities with tools to respond to existing and emerging crises in a timely manner, as well as scientific evidence regarding the urgency of current health and environmental issues.<br><br>PRR1-10.2196/31389.}, }
@article {pmid34523842, year = {2021}, author = {Quarsie, J and van de Pas, R and Fanoy, E and van den Hazel, P}, title = {[The impact of climate change on health in the Netherlands: the latest insights].}, journal = {Nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde}, volume = {165}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {34523842}, issn = {1876-8784}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Allergens ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity ; Netherlands/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {This synthesis provides the latest insights into the impact of climate change in the Netherlands for which five separate health effects are particularly relevant. Climate change is associated with increased frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves. Major heat-related health risks include heat stroke, exacerbations of renal dysfunction due to dehydration and cardiovascular disease due to overheating. Climate change is associated with more hours of sunshine and more ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Heat and air pollution, both effects of climate change, lead to significant cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Climate change is associated with an increase in water, food and vector-related infectious diseases due to, among other things, an increased temperature, increased water recreation and an altered water quality. Another effect is an increase in allergies and respiratory complaints via the prolongation and intensification of the pollen season. Our conclusion is that climate change in the Netherlands mainly entails negative health effects.}, }
@article {pmid34523189, year = {2021}, author = {Nomaki, H and Rastelli, E and Ogawa, NO and Matsui, Y and Tsuchiya, M and Manea, E and Corinaldesi, C and Hirai, M and Ohkouchi, N and Danovaro, R and Nunoura, T and Amaro, T}, title = {In situ experimental evidences for responses of abyssal benthic biota to shifts in phytodetritus compositions linked to global climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {23}, pages = {6139-6155}, pmid = {34523189}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {24540504//JSPS KAKENHI/ ; JP16K00534//JSPS KAKENHI/ ; JP19K04048//JSPS KAKENHI/ ; 327488//Marie Curie Actions through the project CEFMED/ ; }, mesh = {Biota ; *Climate Change ; *Cyanobacteria ; Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Abyssal plains cover more than half of Earth's surface, and the main food source in these ecosystems is phytodetritus, mainly originating from primary producers in the euphotic zone of the ocean. Global climate change is influencing phytoplankton abundance, productivity, and distribution. Increasing importance of picoplankton over diatom as primary producers in surface oceans (especially projected for higher latitudes) is projected and hence altering the quantity of organic carbon supplied to the abyssal seafloor as phytodetritus, consequences of which remain largely unknown. Here, we investigated the in situ responses of abyssal biota from viruses to megafauna to different types of phytoplankton input (diatoms or cyanobacteria which were labeled with stable isotopes) at equatorial (oligotrophic) and temperate (eutrophic) benthic sites in the Pacific Ocean (1°N at 4277 m water depth and 39°N at 5260 m water depth, respectively). Our results show that meiofauna and macrofauna generally preferred diatoms as a food source and played a relatively larger role in the consumption of phytodetritus at higher latitudes (39°N). Contrarily, prokaryotes and viruses showed similar or even stronger responses to cyanobacterial than to diatom supply. Moreover, the response of prokaryotes and viruses was very rapid (within 1-2 days) at both 1°N and 39°N, with quickest responses reported in the case of cyanobacterial supply at higher latitudes. Overall, our results suggest that benthic deep-sea eukaryotes will be negatively affected by the predicted decrease in diatoms in surface oceans, especially at higher latitudes, where benthic prokaryotes and viruses will otherwise likely increase their quantitative role and organic carbon cycling rates. In turn, such changes can contribute to decrease carbon transfer from phytodetritus to higher trophic levels, with strong potential to affect oceanic food webs, their biodiversity and consequently carbon sequestration capacity at the global scale.}, }
@article {pmid34522363, year = {2021}, author = {Changjun, G and Yanli, T and Linshan, L and Bo, W and Yili, Z and Haibin, Y and Xilong, W and Zhuoga, Y and Binghua, Z and Bohao, C}, title = {Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {17}, pages = {12092-12113}, pmid = {34522363}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {AIM: Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of IAS. Predicting the suitable areas of IAS can prevent their further expansion. Ageratina adenophora is an invasive weed over 30 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential suitable areas of A. adenophora remain unclear along with its response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current and future potential suitable areas of Ageratina adenophora.<br><br>LOCATION: Global.<br><br>TAXA: Asteraceae A. adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King &amp; H.Rob. Commonly known as Crofton weed.<br><br>METHODS: Based on A. adenophora occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its suitable areas of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050 and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the potential suitable area distribution characteristics of this weed and the "ecospat" package in R to analyze its altitudinal distribution changes.<br><br>RESULTS: The area under the curve (AUC) value (>0.9) and true skill statistics (TSS) value (>0.8) indicated excelled model performance. Among environment factors, mean temperature of coldest quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable areas for A. adenophora invasion decreased under climate change scenarios, although regional increases were observed, including in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable areas of A. adenophora under climate change would expand in regions with higher elevation (3,000-3,500&#xa0;m).<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Mean temperature of coldest quarter was the most important variable influencing the potential suitable area of A. Adenophora. Under the background of a warming climate, the potential suitable area of A. adenophora will shrink globally but increase in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable area of A.&#xa0;adenophora would expand at higher elevation (3,000-3,500&#xa0;m) under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to climate change, and increasing human activities provide more opportunities for IAS invasion.}, }
@article {pmid34519355, year = {2021}, author = {Arietta, AZA and Skelly, DK}, title = {Rapid microgeographic evolution in response to climate change.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {75}, number = {11}, pages = {2930-2943}, doi = {10.1111/evo.14350}, pmid = {34519355}, issn = {1558-5646}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Environmental change is predicted to accelerate into the future and will exert strong selection pressure on biota. Although many species may be fated to extinction, others may survive through their capacity to evolve rapidly at highly localized (i.e., microgeographic) scales. Yet, even as new examples have been discovered, the limits to such evolutionary responses have not often been evaluated. One of the first examples of microgeographic variation involved pond populations of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica). Although separated by just tens to hundreds of meters, these populations exhibited countergradient variation in intrinsic embryonic development rates when reared in a common garden. We repeated this experiment 17 years (approximately six to nine generations) later and found that microgeographic variation persists in contemporary populations. Furthermore, we found that contemporary embryos have evolved to develop 14-19% faster than those in 2001. Structural equation models indicate that the predominant cause for this response is likely due to changes in climate over the intervening 17 years. Despite potential for rapid and fine-scale evolution, demographic declines in populations experiencing the greatest changes in climate and habitat imply a limit to the species' ability to mitigate extreme environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid34519006, year = {2022}, author = {Jin, K and Wang, F and Zong, Q and Qin, P and Liu, C and Wang, S}, title = {Spatiotemporal differences in climate change impacts on vegetation cover in China from 1982 to 2015.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {10263-10276}, pmid = {34519006}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {665/1120041//Foundation of High-level Talents of Qingdao Agricultural University/ ; 663/1120104//Foundation of High-level Talents of Qingdao Agricultural University/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forests ; Seasons ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on vegetation cover in different regions in China are not entirely clear because of the interference of non-climatic factors, such as human activity. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal differences in climate impacts qualitatively and quantitatively by applying trend, correlation, and multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses to the data of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and two climatic factors (air temperature and precipitation) during 1982-2015 in China. The MLR equation linking two climatic variables with NDVI was used to identify the NDVI trend caused by climate change. We demonstrated that the central and eastern regions of China, dominated by deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forests, experienced a rapid increase in NDVI from 1982 to 2015. The response of NDVI to variations in temperature and precipitation exhibited large spatiotemporal differences across China, which was closely related to climatic conditions and vegetation types. Overall, warming, particularly the sharp rise in spring, was the main climatic driving force behind China's NDVI increase, and precipitation also influenced the NDVI increase in temperate grassland and desert regions due to the relatively arid climate, particularly in summer. The contributions of climate change to the total NDVI trend (CC) showed a large spatiotemporal heterogeneity across China. Overall, only 45% of the pixels (with a resolution of 8 km) in the study area showed that the MLR equations between NDVI and two climatic factors were significant at the 0.05 significance level during the growing season (April-October), and the average CC of these pixels was 38%. Among the eight vegetation sub-regions of China, the temperate desert and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau alpine meadow regions generally exhibited relatively larger CCs than other vegetation sub-regions in different seasons. At a national scale, the regional average CC reached 64% during the growing season. These results at multiple scales can help to deeply understand the mechanisms of regional environmental variation and sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid34519004, year = {2022}, author = {Ji, S and Ren, S and Li, Y and Fang, J and Zhao, D and Liu, J}, title = {The response of net primary productivity to climate change and its impact on hydrology in a water-limited agricultural basin.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {10277-10290}, pmid = {34519004}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {32071523//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; ZR2017MC013//Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province, China/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Hydrology ; Models, Theoretical ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change has remarkably altered growing-season vegetation growth, but the impacts of vegetation variability on the regional hydrological cycle remain poorly understood. Exploring the relationships between climate change, vegetation dynamics, and hydrologic factors would contribute to the sustainable management of ecosystems. Here, we investigated the response of vegetation dynamics to climate change and its impact on hydrologic factors in a traditional agricultural basin with limited water resources in China, Nansi Lake Basin (NLB). To this end, CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model and the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model were applied to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and soil water in the growing season (April-October) from 2000 to 2016. Results showed that the mean growing-season NPP (NPPGS) exhibited an ascending trend at a rate of 2.93 g C/m[2]/year during the 17-year period. The intra-annual variation of NPPGS displayed two peaks in May and July, respectively. The first peak in May was accompanied by relative deficits in soil water, which might inhibit vegetation productivity. Precipitation was the principal climatic factor controlling NPPGS dynamics in the water-limited NLB. The positive influence of temperature on NPPGS was relatively weak, and even future warming could negatively affect ecosystem productivity in the south-central regions of the NLB. Furthermore, a strongly positive relationship between NPPGS and ET was detected, suggesting that increasing NPP in the future might stimulate the rise in ET and then exacerbate drought at the watershed scale. This study provides an integrated model for a comprehensive understanding of the interaction between vegetation, climate, and hydrological cycle, and highlights the importance of water-saving agriculture for future food security.}, }
@article {pmid34518797, year = {2021}, author = {Ebi, KL and Bowen, KJ and Calkins, J and Chen, M and Huq, S and Nalau, J and Palutikof, JP and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {Interactions between two existential threats: COVID-19 and climate change.}, journal = {Climate risk management}, volume = {34}, number = {}, pages = {100363}, pmid = {34518797}, issn = {2212-0963}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are complex existential threats, unpredictable in many ways and unprecedented in modern times. There are parallels between the scale and scope of their impacts and responses. Understanding shared drivers, coupled vulnerabilities, and criteria for effective responses will help societies worldwide prepare for the simultaneous threats of climate change and future pandemics. We summarize some shared characteristics of COVID-19 and climate change impacts and interventions and discuss key policy implications and recommendations.}, }
@article {pmid34518621, year = {2021}, author = {Chowdhury, MAW and Müller, J and Varela, S}, title = {Climate change and the increase of human population will threaten conservation of Asian cobras.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {18113}, pmid = {34518621}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Asia ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Elapidae ; Geography ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; *Population Density ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Asian cobras (genus Naja) are venomous snakes distributed from the Middle East to Southeast Asia. Because cobras often live near humans settlements, they are responsible for a large part of snakebite incidents and as such pose a challenge for public health systems. In the light of growing human populations, correctly mapping the present and future ranges of Asian cobras is therefore important for both biological conservation and public health management. Here, we mapped the potential climatic niches of ten Asian cobra species for both the present and the future, with the aim to quantify changes in climate and human population densities relative to their current and future ranges. Our analyses reveal that cobras that are adapted to dry climates and inhabit islands have narrow climatic niches, while those of mainland species with larger geographic ranges are much wider. We also found a higher degree of fragmentation of future cobra distributions; within the next 50 years, Asian cobras will lose an average of around 60% of their current suitable climatic range. In the near future, Naja mandalayensis, N. sputatrix, N. samarensis, and N. philippinensis are likely to have no accessible suitable climate space left. Besides, a further increase of human populations in this region may also exponentially accelerate the effects of anthropogenic impacts. Solutions for conservation may involve awareness and appropriate use of law to overcome the rate of habitat degradation and the increase of animal trade of Asian cobras, while promoting investment on health systems to avoid snakebite fatalities.}, }
@article {pmid34518595, year = {2021}, author = {Martinez, S and Bellworthy, J and Ferrier-Pagès, C and Mass, T}, title = {Selection of mesophotic habitats by Oculina patagonica in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea following global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {18134}, pmid = {34518595}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Anthozoa/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; Calcification, Physiologic ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Mediterranean Sea ; Photochemical Processes ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Globally, species are migrating in an attempt to track optimal isotherms as climate change increasingly warms existing habitats. Stony corals are severely threatened by anthropogenic warming, which has resulted in repeated mass bleaching and mortality events. Since corals are sessile as adults and with a relatively old age of sexual maturity, they are slow to latitudinally migrate, but corals may also migrate vertically to deeper, cooler reefs. Herein we describe vertical migration of the Mediterranean coral Oculina patagonica from less than 10 m depth to > 30 m. We suggest that this range shift is a response to rapidly warming sea surface temperatures on the Israeli Mediterranean coastline. In contrast to the vast latitudinal distance required to track temperature change, this species has migrated deeper where summer water temperatures are up to 2 °C cooler. Comparisons of physiology, morphology, trophic position, symbiont type, and photochemistry between deep and shallow conspecifics revealed only a few depth-specific differences. At this study site, shallow colonies typically inhabit low light environments (caves, crevices) and have a facultative relationship with photosymbionts. We suggest that this existing phenotype aided colonization of the mesophotic zone. This observation highlights the potential for other marine species to vertically migrate.}, }
@article {pmid34517321, year = {2022}, author = {Fotso-Nguemo, TC and Vondou, DA and Diallo, I and Diedhiou, A and Weber, T and Tanessong, RS and Nghonda, JP and Yepdo, ZD}, title = {Potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on heat and discomfort indices changes over Central Africa.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {804}, number = {}, pages = {150099}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150099}, pmid = {34517321}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Africa, Central ; Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; *Global Warming ; *Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology/etiology ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Investigating the effects of the increased global warming through the lens of the Paris agreements would be of particular importance for Central African countries, which are already experiencing multiple socio-political and socio-economic constraints, but are also subject to severe natural hazards that interact to limit their adaptive capacity and thus increase their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change. This study explores changes in heat stress and the proportion of population at risk of discomfort over Central Africa, based on an ensemble-mean of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that cover a 30-year period, under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C Global Warming Levels (GWLs). The heat index was computed according to Rothfusz's equation, while the discomfort index was obtained from Thom's formula. The results show that throughout the year but with a predominance from March to August, the spatial extent of both heat and discomfort categories is projected to gradually increase according to the considered GWLs (nearly threefold for an increasing warming thresholds from 1.5 to 3 °C). As these heat conditions become more frequent, they lead to the emergence of days with potentially dangerous heat-related risks, where almost everyone feels discomfort due to heat stress. It thus appears that the majority of populations living in countries located along the Atlantic coast and in the northern and central part of the study area are likely to be more vulnerable to certain health problems, which could have repercussions on the socio-economic development of the sub-region through decreased workers' productivity and increased cooling degree days. Overall, these heat-related risks are more extended and more frequent when the GWL reaches 2 °C and above.}, }
@article {pmid34516851, year = {2021}, author = {Jackson, ST}, title = {Transformational ecology and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {373}, number = {6559}, pages = {1085-1086}, doi = {10.1126/science.abj6777}, pmid = {34516851}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Management of imminent ecosystem shifts demands adaptive, translational approaches.}, }
@article {pmid34512597, year = {2021}, author = {Kumar, V and Sarma, VV and Thambugala, KM and Huang, JJ and Li, XY and Hao, GF}, title = {Ecology and Evolution of Marine Fungi With Their Adaptation to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {719000}, pmid = {34512597}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Climate change agitates interactions between organisms and the environment and forces them to adapt, migrate, get replaced by others, or extinct. Marine environments are extremely sensitive to climate change that influences their ecological functions and microbial community including fungi. Fungi from marine habitats are engaged and adapted to perform diverse ecological functions in marine environments. Several studies focus on how complex interactions with the surrounding environment affect fungal evolution and their adaptation. However, a review addressing the adaptation of marine fungi to climate change is still lacking. Here we have discussed the adaptations of fungi in the marine environment with an example of Hortaea werneckii and Aspergillus terreus which may help to reduce the risk of climate change impacts on marine environments and organisms. We address the ecology and evolution of marine fungi and the effects of climate change on them to explain the adaptation mechanism. A review of marine fungal adaptations will show widespread effects on evolutionary biology and the mechanism responsible for it.}, }
@article {pmid34512582, year = {2021}, author = {Knapp, D and Fernández Castro, B and Marty, D and Loher, E and Köster, O and Wüest, A and Posch, T}, title = {The Red Harmful Plague in Times of Climate Change: Blooms of the Cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens Triggered by Stratification Dynamics and Irradiance.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {705914}, pmid = {34512582}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Planktothrix rubescens is a harmful planktonic cyanobacterium, forming concentrated metalimnetic populations in deep oligo- and mesotrophic lakes, even after successful restoration. In Lake Zurich (Switzerland), P. rubescens emerged as a keystone species with annual mass developments since the 1970s. Its success was partly attributed to effects of lake warming, such as changes in thermal stratification and seasonal deep mixing. However, recent observations based on a biweekly monitoring campaign (2009-2020) revealed two massive breakdowns and striking seasonal oscillations of the population. Here, we disentangle positive from negative consequences of secular lake warming and annual variations in weather conditions on P. rubescens dynamics: (i) despite the high survival rates of overwintering populations (up to 25%) during three consecutive winters (2014-2016) of incomplete deep convective mixing, cyanobacterial regrowth during the following stratified season was moderate and not overshooting a distinct standing stock threshold. Moreover, we recorded a negative trend for annual population maxima and total population size, pointing to a potential nutrient limitation after a series of incomplete winter mixing. Thus, the predication of steadily increasing blooms of P. rubescens could not be confirmed for the last decade. (ii) The seasonal reestablishment of P. rubescens was strongly coupled with a timely formation of a stable metalimnion structure, where the first positive net growth in the following productive summer season was observed. The trigger for the vertical positioning of filaments within the metalimnion was irradiance and not maximal water column stability. Repetitive disruptions of the vernal metalimnion owing to unstable weather conditions, as in spring 2019, went in parallel with a massive breakdown of the standing stock and marginal regrowth during thermal stratification. (iii) Driven by light intensity, P. rubescens was entrained into the turbulent epilimnion in autumn, followed by a second peak in population growth. Thus, the typical bimodal growth pattern was still intact during the last decade. Our long-term study highlights the finely tuned interplay between climate-induced changes and variability of thermal stratification dynamics and physiological traits of P. rubescens, determining its survival in a mesotrophic temperate lake.}, }
@article {pmid34512442, year = {2021}, author = {Shah, M and Seraj, S and Pennebaker, JW}, title = {Climate Denial Fuels Climate Change Discussions More Than Local Climate-Related Disasters.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {682057}, pmid = {34512442}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Most scientists agree that climate change is the largest existential threat of our time. Despite the magnitude of the threat, surprisingly few climate-related discussions take place on social media. What factors drive online discussions about climate change? In this study, we examined the occurrence of Reddit discussions around three types of climate-related events: natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes, wildfires), political events (i.e., 2016 United States Presidential election), and policy events (i.e., United States' withdrawal from Paris Climate Agreement, release of IPCC report). The objective was to understand how different types of events influence collective action as measured by discussions of climate change. Six large US cities were selected based on the occurrence of at least one locally-relevant natural disaster since 2014. Posts (N = 4.4 million) from subreddits of the selected cities were collected to obtain a six-month period before and after local natural disasters as well as climate-related political and policy events (which applied equally to all cities). Climate change discussions increased significantly for all three types of events, with the highest discussion during the 2016 elections. Further, discussions returned to baseline levels within 2 months following natural disasters and policy events but continued at elevated rates for up to 4 months following the 2016 elections. The findings suggest that collective discussions on climate change are driven more by political leaders' controversial positions than life-threatening local natural disasters themselves. Implications for collective action are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid34509385, year = {2021}, author = {Jacobs, JW}, title = {The impact of climate change and emerging infectious diseases on the blood supply.}, journal = {Transfusion and apheresis science : official journal of the World Apheresis Association : official journal of the European Society for Haemapheresis}, volume = {60}, number = {6}, pages = {103272}, pmid = {34509385}, issn = {1473-0502}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Communicable Diseases/*blood ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34507988, year = {2021}, author = {Nisa, CF and Bélanger, JJ and Schumpe, BM and Sasin, EM}, title = {Secure human attachment can promote support for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {37}, pages = {}, pmid = {34507988}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Behavior/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Empathy/physiology ; Food ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Object Attachment ; Refuse Disposal/ethics/methods ; }, abstract = {Attachment theory is an ethological approach to the development of durable, affective ties between humans. We propose that secure attachment is crucial for understanding climate change mitigation, because the latter is inherently a communal phenomenon resulting from joint action and requiring collective behavioral change. Here, we show that priming attachment security increases acceptance (Study 1: n = 173) and perceived responsibility toward anthropogenic climate change (Study 2: n = 209) via increased empathy for others. Next, we demonstrate that priming attachment security, compared to a standard National Geographic video about climate change, increases monetary donations to a proenvironmental group in politically moderate and conservative individuals (Study 3: n = 196). Finally, through a preregistered field study conducted in the United Arab Emirates (Study 4: n = 143,558 food transactions), we show that, compared to a message related to carbon emissions, an attachment security-based message is associated with a reduction in food waste. Taken together, our work suggests that an avenue to promote climate change mitigation could be grounded in core ethological mechanisms associated with secure attachment.}, }
@article {pmid34506636, year = {2022}, author = {Hajek, OL and Knapp, AK}, title = {Shifting seasonal patterns of water availability: ecosystem responses to an unappreciated dimension of climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {233}, number = {1}, pages = {119-125}, doi = {10.1111/nph.17728}, pmid = {34506636}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Seasons ; Water ; }, abstract = {Seasonal patterns of water availability can differ dramatically among ecosystems, with well-known consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. Less appreciated is that climate change can shift the seasonality of water availability (e.g. to wetter springs, drier summers), resulting in both subtle and profound ecological impacts. Here we (1) review evidence that the seasonal availability of water is being altered in ecosystems worldwide, (2) explore several mechanisms potentially driving these changes, and (3) highlight the breadth of ecological consequences resulting from shifts in the seasonality of water availability. We conclude that seasonal patterns of water availability are changing globally, but in regionally specific ways requiring more rigorous and nuanced assessments of ecosystem vulnerability as well as the ecological consequences.}, }
@article {pmid34506547, year = {2021}, author = {Kural, E and Dellmuth, LM and Gustafsson, MT}, title = {International organizations and climate change adaptation: A new dataset for the social scientific study of adaptation, 1990-2017.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {e0257101}, pmid = {34506547}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Databases as Topic ; *Internationality ; *Social Sciences ; }, abstract = {This article introduces a new dataset on the climate change adaptation activities of international organizations (IOs). While climate change adaptation has been studied at the local level and in the context of major climate organizations, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, we provide a first quantitative dataset on non-environmental IOs that can be linked to different social scientific datasets relevant for adaptation. Our new dataset contains information on the governance activities of 30 IOs from 1990 to 2017. Based on this dataset, we introduce different types of adaptation-related activities and develop a quantitative measure of IOs' climate adaptation engagement. We map the adaptation engagement of the 30 IOs across organizations, across issue areas, and over time. This dataset can be used to compare adaptation activities across and within IOs, but also as an empirical foundation for the emerging research field of global adaptation governance, for which IO climate change adaptation activities are relevant.}, }
@article {pmid34505690, year = {2021}, author = {Jarvis, S}, title = {Changing course on climate change.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {189}, number = {5}, pages = {171}, doi = {10.1002/vetr.878}, pmid = {34505690}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid34505010, year = {2021}, author = {Gøtske, EK and Victoria, M}, title = {Future operation of hydropower in Europe under high renewable penetration and climate change.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {24}, number = {9}, pages = {102999}, pmid = {34505010}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {As large renewable capacities penetrate the European energy system and the climate faces significant alterations, the future operation of hydropower reservoirs might deviate from today. In this work, we first analyze the changes in hydropower operation required to balance a wind- and solar-dominated European energy system. Second, we apply runoff data obtained from combining five different global circulation models and two regional climate models to estimate future reservoir inflow at three CO2 emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). This enables us to address the climate model uncertainty reported in previous literature. Despite large interannual and intermodel variability, significant changes are measured in the climate model signal between today and future climate. Annual inflow decreases by 31% (20%) in Southern countries and increases by 21% (14%) in Northern countries for high (mid)-emission scenarios. Projections also show impacts on seasonal profiles and more frequent and prolonged droughts in Mediterranean countries.}, }
@article {pmid34504988, year = {2021}, author = {Desai, Z and Zhang, Y}, title = {Climate Change and Women's Health: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {5}, number = {9}, pages = {e2021GH000386}, pmid = {34504988}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Climate change is a significant global health threat that is, underpinned by the existing issue of gender inequality. A scoping review was conducted to better understand the relationship between climate change and women's health. We found a notably higher proportion of existing studies focused on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Most of the studies included were published after 2010, with predominantly qualitative study designs. Four key themes were identified, including women's exposure to climate change risks, the impacts on women's health, factors contributing to the vulnerability, and responding strategies in addressing climate change. The scoping review indicates that women's health is at higher risks due to the vulnerability to climate change, especially in LMICs. Meanwhile, it is beneficial to have insights from women in terms of adaptation and mitigation strategies to build stronger resilience. Mixed methods are strongly recommended to support evidence-based policy making in responding to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34504711, year = {2020}, author = {Pallarés, S and Sanchez-Hernandez, JC and Colado, R and Balart-García, P and Comas, J and Sánchez-Fernández, D}, title = {Beyond survival experiments: using biomarkers of oxidative stress and neurotoxicity to assess vulnerability of subterranean fauna to climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {coaa067}, pmid = {34504711}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Accurate assessments of species vulnerability to climate change need to consider the physiological capacity of organisms to deal with temperature changes and identify early signs of thermally induced stress. Oxidative stress biomarkers and acetylcholinesterase activity are useful proxies of stress at the cellular and nervous system level. Such responses are especially relevant for poor dispersal organisms with limited capacity for behavioural thermoregulation, like deep subterranean species. We combined experimental measurements of upper lethal thermal limits, acclimation capacity and biomarkers of oxidative stress and neurotoxicity to assess the impact of heat stress (20°C) at different exposure times (2 and 7 days) on the Iberian endemic subterranean beetle Parvospeonomus canyellesi. Survival response (7 days of exposure) was similar to that reported for other subterranean specialist beetles (high survival up to 20°C but no above 23°C). However, a low physiological plasticity (i.e. incapacity to increase heat tolerance via acclimation) and signs of impairment at the cellular and nervous system level were observed after 7 days of exposure at 20°C. Such sublethal effects were identified by significant differences in total antioxidant capacity, glutathione S-transferase activity, the ratio of reduced to oxidized forms of glutathione and acetylcholinesterase activity between the control (cave temperature) and 20°C treatment. At 2 days of exposure, most biomarker values indicated some degree of oxidative stress in both the control and high-temperature treatment, likely reflecting an initial altered physiological status associated to factors other than temperature. Considering these integrated responses and the predicted increase in temperature in its unique locality, P. canyellesi would have a narrower thermal safety margin to face climate change than that obtained considering only survival experiments. Our results highlight the importance of exploring thermally sensitive processes at different levels of biological organization to obtain more accurate estimates of the species capacity to face climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34501946, year = {2021}, author = {Maran, DA and Begotti, T}, title = {Media Exposure to Climate Change, Anxiety, and Efficacy Beliefs in a Sample of Italian University Students.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {34501946}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Anxiety/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Italy ; Students ; *Universities ; }, abstract = {The climate crisis poses a serious threat to the health and well-being of individuals. For many, climate change knowledge is derived from indirect exposure to information transmitted through the media. Such content can elicit a variety of emotional responses, including anger, sadness, despair, fear, and guilt. Worry and anxiety are especially common responses, usually referred to as "climate anxiety". The main objectives of this study were to analyze how exposure to climate change through the media relates to climate anxiety and individual and collective self-efficacy, and to evaluate the relationship between climate anxiety and efficacy beliefs. A total of 312 Italian university students (aged 18-26 years) participated in the research by filling out an anonymous questionnaire. Participants reported being exposed several times per week to information about climate change, especially from social media, newspapers, and television programs. Moreover, the results showed that the attention paid to information about climate change was not only positively related to climate anxiety, but also to individual and collective self-efficacy. Most notably, participants' efficacy beliefs were found to be positively related to climate anxiety. This somewhat controversial finding stresses that, in the context of pro-environmental behavior changes, a moderate level of anxiety could engender feelings of virtue, encouraging people to rethink actions with negative ecological impacts.}, }
@article {pmid34501794, year = {2021}, author = {Latkin, CA and Dayton, L and Lee, DI and Yi, G and Uzzi, M}, title = {Correlates of Levels of Willingness to Engage in Climate Change Actions in the United States.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {34501794}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {R01 DA040488/DA/NIDA NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Organizations ; *Politics ; United States ; }, abstract = {While the majority of the American public believe climate change is occurring and are worried, few are engaged in climate change action. In this study, we assessed factors associated with the level of willingness to engage in climate change actions using an online, longitudinal US study of adults. Climate change action outcomes included the level of willingness to post materials online, take political actions, talk with peers about climate change, and donate to or help an organization. Predictors included climate change attitudes, environmental attitudes, political ideology, political party affiliation, and demographic variables. Most (72%) of the 644 respondents only talked about climate change with peers a few times a year or less, though 65% were very or extremely worried about climate change. Many respondents indicated a willingness to do somewhat or a lot more, from 38% willing to talk to peers to 25% for willing to take political actions. In multinomial regression models, the Climate Change Concern scale was strongly and consistently associated with willingness to engage in climate change action. These findings indicate a need to both identify those who are willing to act and finding activities that fit with their interests and availability.}, }
@article {pmid34501538, year = {2021}, author = {Gao, W and Guo, Y and Jiang, F}, title = {Playing for a Resilient Future: A Serious Game Designed to Explore and Understand the Complexity of the Interaction among Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and Urban Development.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {34501538}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Urban Renewal ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Urban development and disaster risk are deeply linked, especially now when we are facing increasingly frequent climate change. Hence, knowledge of the potential trade-offs between urban development and disaster risk reduction (DRR) may have potential to build a resilient and sustainable future. The objectives of this study are (1) to present education for a sustainability (EfS) program and to evaluate its performance: a serious game of knowledge communication for the interactions among climate change, disaster risk, and urban development; (2) to explore factors that will influence the players' decision making in the trade-offs between urban development and DRR under an urbanization background through counterfactual scenarios constructed by a series of serious games. The Yudai Trench, once a critical component of the urban green infrastructure of ancient Guangzhou, has disappeared under rapid urban expansion, leaving the city exposed to environmental hazards caused by climate change. Is the disappearance of the Yudai Trench an inevitable event in the progress of urbanization? To answer this question, the study constructed counterfactual scenarios by recuring the historical progress through the same serious game. Gameplay involved the players' decision making with associated impacts on the urbanization progress and the DRR in diverse climate hazard scenarios. For this study, 107 undergraduates from related majors, who are also would-be policymakers, were selected as players. The methodology combined questionnaire survey and participant observation complemented by interviews. The t-test results indicated that undergraduates' knowledge levels had significant positive changes after the end of the serious game. Importantly, the results showed that the knowledge could potentially contribute to the players' decision-making process for DRR by assisting them in making pre-decision. Beside this knowledge, the results expanded the range of influencing factors and solutions reported by previous literature on DRR under an urbanization background against climate hazards by constructing counterfactual scenarios, e.g., higher economic levels and policy incentives. In this study, the serious game was evaluated as an innovative communication and the EfS method in counterfactual scenarios. These findings of the study provide a reference for future practice, policymaking, and decision making so as to help harness lessons learned from unrealized environmental hazards to support a more resilient future through informed policies and plans.}, }
@article {pmid34500275, year = {2022}, author = {Han, J and Zhang, A and Kang, Y and Han, J and Yang, B and Hussain, Q and Wang, X and Zhang, M and Khan, MA}, title = {Biochar promotes soil organic carbon sequestration and reduces net global warming potential in apple orchard: A two-year study in the Loess Plateau of China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {803}, number = {}, pages = {150035}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150035}, pmid = {34500275}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Carbon Sequestration ; Charcoal ; China ; Global Warming ; *Malus ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {The Loess Plateau is China's primary apple-growing area, and the orchard is a significant source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions due to high nitrogen fertilizer input. Thus, a two-year field study was carried out to investigate the effects of apple wood derived biochar on GHGs emissions during apple orchard production, including soil organic carbon sequestration (SOCSR) and net global warming potential (NGWP) assessments. There are four treatments in this study: 20 t ha[-1] biochar in a non-fertilized plot (B); no biochar in a fertilized plot (F); 20 t ha[-1] biochar in a fertilized plot (FB); no biochar in a non-fertilized plot (CK). Results showed that the combined application of biochar and fertilizer stimulated CO2 emissions by 9.25% and 8.39% than either biochar or fertilizer alone. Meanwhile, biochar in fertilized plot increased annual N2O emissions by 32.6% as compared to fertilized plot without biochar amendment. Compared with CK, biochar had no significant effect on GHG emissions in unfertilized plot. The N2O emission factor of FB and F were 0.91% and 0.45% respectively in 2017-2018 and they were both 0.34% in 2018-2019. Moreover, compared with CK, the FB and B treatments increased the SOCSR by 316.52% and 354.78%, while, decreased the NGWP by 368.93% and 480.91%, respectively. Thus, biochar application may help reduce the impact of apple production on climate change by sequestering more soil organic carbon and decreasing the NGWP.}, }
@article {pmid34499852, year = {2021}, author = {McLean, M and Mouillot, D and Maureaud, AA and Hattab, T and MacNeil, MA and Goberville, E and Lindegren, M and Engelhard, G and Pinsky, M and Auber, A}, title = {Disentangling tropicalization and deborealization in marine ecosystems under climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {31}, number = {21}, pages = {4817-4823.e5}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2021.08.034}, pmid = {34499852}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Global Warming ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {As climate change accelerates, species are shifting poleward and subtropical and tropical species are colonizing temperate environments.[1-3] A popular approach for characterizing such responses is the community temperature index (CTI), which tracks the mean thermal affinity of a community. Studies in marine,[4] freshwater,[5] and terrestrial[6] ecosystems have documented increasing CTI under global warming. However, most studies have only linked increasing CTI to increases in warm-affinity species. Here, using long-term monitoring of marine fishes across the Northern Hemisphere, we decomposed CTI changes into four underlying processes-tropicalization (increasing warm-affinity), deborealization (decreasing cold-affinity), borealization (increasing cold-affinity), and detropicalization (decreasing warm-affinity)-for which we examined spatial variability and drivers. CTI closely tracked changes in sea surface temperature, increasing in 72% of locations. However, 31% of these increases were primarily due to decreases in cold-affinity species, i.e., deborealization. Thus, increases in warm-affinity species were prevalent, but not ubiquitous. Tropicalization was stronger in areas that were initially warmer, experienced greater warming, or were deeper, while deborealization was stronger in areas that were closer to human population centers or that had higher community thermal diversity. When CTI (and temperature) increased, species that decreased were more likely to be living closer to their upper thermal limits or to be commercially fished. Additionally, warm-affinity species that increased had smaller body sizes than those that decreased. Our results show that CTI changes arise from a variety of underlying community responses that are linked to environmental conditions, human impacts, community structure, and species characteristics.}, }
@article {pmid34499795, year = {2022}, author = {Zgouridou, A and Tripidaki, E and Giantsis, IA and Theodorou, JA and Kalaitzidou, M and Raitsos, DE and Lattos, A and Mavropoulou, AM and Sofianos, S and Karagiannis, D and Chaligiannis, I and Anestis, A and Papadakis, N and Feidantsis, K and Mintza, D and Staikou, A and Michaelidis, B}, title = {The current situation and potential effects of climate change on the microbial load of marine bivalves of the Greek coastlines: an integrative review.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {1012-1034}, doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.15765}, pmid = {34499795}, issn = {1462-2920}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Greece ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Global warming affects the aquatic ecosystems, accelerating pathogenic microorganisms' and toxic microalgae's growth and spread in marine habitats, and in bivalve molluscs. New parasite invasions are directly linked to oceanic warming. Consumption of pathogen-infected molluscs impacts human health at different rates, depending, inter alia, on the bacteria taxa. It is therefore necessary to monitor microbiological and chemical contamination of food. Many global cases of poisoning from bivalve consumption can be traced back to Mediterranean regions. This article aims to examine the marine bivalve's infestation rate within the scope of climate change, as well as to evaluate the risk posed by climate change to bivalve welfare and public health. Biological and climatic data literature review was performed from international scientific sources, Greek authorities and State organizations. Focusing on Greek aquaculture and bivalve fisheries, high-risk index pathogenic parasites and microalgae were observed during summer months, particularly in Thermaikos Gulf. Considering the climate models that predict further temperature increases, it seems that marine organisms will be subjected in the long term to higher temperatures. Due to the positive linkage between temperature and microbial load, the marine areas most affected by this phenomenon are characterized as 'high risk' for consumer health.}, }
@article {pmid34499683, year = {2021}, author = {Zuza, EJ and Maseyk, K and Bhagwat, SA and de Sousa, K and Emmott, A and Rawes, W and Araya, YN}, title = {Climate suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia (Macadamia integrifolia) in Malawi using climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {e0257007}, pmid = {34499683}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Humans ; Macadamia/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; Malawi ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering suitable areas of crop species worldwide, with cascading effects on people reliant upon those crop species as food sources and for income generation. Macadamia is one of Malawi's most important and profitable crop species; however, climate change threatens its production. Thus, this study's objective is to quantitatively examine the potential impacts of climate change on the climate suitability for macadamia in Malawi. We utilized an ensemble model approach to predict the current and future (2050s) suitability of macadamia under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We achieved a good model fit in determining suitability classes for macadamia (AUC = 0.9). The climatic variables that strongly influence macadamia's climatic suitability in Malawi are suggested to be the precipitation of the driest month (29.1%) and isothermality (17.3%). Under current climatic conditions, 57% (53,925 km2) of Malawi is climatically suitable for macadamia. Future projections suggest that climate change will decrease the suitable areas for macadamia by 18% (17,015 km2) and 21.6% (20,414 km2) based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, with the distribution of suitability shifting northwards in the 2050s. The southern and central regions of the country will suffer the greatest losses (≥ 8%), while the northern region will be the least impacted (4%). We conclude that our study provides critical evidence that climate change will reduce the suitable areas for macadamia production in Malawi, depending on climate drivers. Therefore area-specific adaptation strategies are required to build resilience among producers.}, }
@article {pmid34498608, year = {2021}, author = {Villamizar-Gomez, A and Wang, HH and Peterson, MR and Grant, WE and Forstner, MRJ}, title = {Environmental determinants of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and the likelihood of further dispersion in the face of climate change in Texas, USA.}, journal = {Diseases of aquatic organisms}, volume = {146}, number = {}, pages = {29-39}, doi = {10.3354/dao03613}, pmid = {34498608}, issn = {0177-5103}, mesh = {Amphibians ; Animals ; Batrachochytrium ; *Chytridiomycota ; Climate Change ; Texas/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {One of the major drivers of amphibian population declines is Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). We sought to identify the major environmental drivers of Bd prevalence in Texas, USA, by drawing results from museum specimens. We sampled one of the largest museum collections in Texas, the Biodiversity Research and Teaching Collections at Texas A&amp;M University. Our sampling focused on the 9 amphibian species with the widest geographical distribution within the state, where we sub-sampled 30% of each species per decade from 1930 to present via skin swabs, totaling 1501 independent sampling events, and used quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to detect pathogen presence. We analyzed several geo-referenced variables describing climatic conditions to identify potential factors influencing the likelihood of presence of Bd using boosted regression trees. Our final model suggests the most influential variables are mean temperature of driest quarter, annual mean temperature, temperature annual range, and mean diurnal range. The most likely suitable range for Bd is currently found in the Blackland Prairie and Cross Timbers ecoregions. Results of our future (to the year 2040) projections suggest that Bd could expand its current distribution. Our model could play an important role when developing an integrated conservation plan through (1) focusing future field work on locations with a high likelihood of presence, (2) assisting in the choice of locations for restoration, and (3) developing future research plans including those necessary for projecting reactions to climate change. Our model also could integrate new presence data of Bd when they become available to enhance prediction precision.}, }
@article {pmid34496408, year = {2021}, author = {Koch, CA and Sharda, P and Patel, J and Gubbi, S and Bansal, R and Bartel, MJ}, title = {Climate Change and Obesity.}, journal = {Hormone and metabolic research = Hormon- und Stoffwechselforschung = Hormones et metabolisme}, volume = {53}, number = {9}, pages = {575-587}, pmid = {34496408}, issn = {1439-4286}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics/trends ; COVID-19/complications/epidemiology/pathology ; *Climate Change/history ; Comorbidity ; Endocrine Disruptors/toxicity ; Environment ; Environmental Exposure/history/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Gases/toxicity ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Obesity/epidemiology/*etiology/metabolism ; Pandemics ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Global warming and the rising prevalence of obesity are well described challenges of current mankind. Most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic arose as a new challenge. We here attempt to delineate their relationship with each other from our perspective. Global greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels have exponentially increased since 1950. The main contributors to such greenhouse gas emissions are manufacturing and construction, transport, residential, commercial, agriculture, and land use change and forestry, combined with an increasing global population growth from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.8 billion in 2020 along with rising obesity rates since the 1980s. The current Covid-19 pandemic has caused some decline in greenhouse gas emissions by limiting mobility globally via repetitive lockdowns. Following multiple lockdowns, there was further increase in obesity in wealthier populations, malnutrition from hunger in poor populations and death from severe infection with Covid-19 and its virus variants. There is a bidirectional relationship between adiposity and global warming. With rising atmospheric air temperatures, people typically will have less adaptive thermogenesis and become less physically active, while they are producing a higher carbon footprint. To reduce obesity rates, one should be willing to learn more about the environmental impact, how to minimize consumption of energy generating carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, and to reduce food waste. Diets lower in meat such as a Mediterranean diet, have been estimated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 72%, land use by 58%, and energy consumption by 52%.}, }
@article {pmid34495571, year = {2021}, author = {Streib, LC and Stone, JR and Lyon, EC and Quang, HH and Yeager, KM and Zimmerman, SRH and McGlue, MM}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change has altered lake state in the Sierra Nevada (California, USA).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {23}, pages = {6059-6070}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15843}, pmid = {34495571}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {California ; Climate Change ; *Diatoms ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Lakes ; }, abstract = {Climatic changes threaten freshwater resources and aquatic ecosystem health in the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), which has important consequences for millions of people and the world's fifth largest economy. However, the timing and magnitude of ecological changes driven by hydroclimate oscillations remain poorly understood in California's headwater region. Here, we develop a precisely dated, annually to decadally resolved lake sediment record of ecological change from the eastern Sierra Nevada that spans the last three millennia. Diatom paleoecology reveals a detailed history of abrupt limnologic transitions, best explained by modifications in water column stratification, mixing, and nutrient status in response to changing seasonality. Seasonally stratified conditions were registered during the Late Holocene Dry Period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly, illustrating the sensitivity of fossil diatoms to well-known periods of drought. Yet the most striking feature of the record is the uniqueness of ~1840-2016 CE: a period of singularly strong water column stratification, increased algal diversity, and reduced diatom productivity consistent with unprecedented "hot droughts." The data demonstrate that hot-dry conditions of the Industrial Era altered lake state to conditions unseen in the past ~3180 years, and suggest that regional trends identified by historical monitoring began far earlier than previously recognized. Our record illustrates the profound influence of anthropogenic climate warming on high-elevation lakes and the ecosystem services they provide in the Sierra Nevada, which hold implications for water quality and availability in California.}, }
@article {pmid34494246, year = {2021}, author = {Emeryk, AW and Sosnowski, T and Kupczyk, M and Śliwiński, P and Zajdel-Całkowska, J and Zielonka, TM and Mastalerz-Migas, A}, title = {Impact of inhalers used in the treatment of respiratory diseases on global warming.}, journal = {Advances in respiratory medicine}, volume = {89}, number = {4}, pages = {427-438}, doi = {10.5603/ARM.a2021.0092}, pmid = {34494246}, issn = {2543-6031}, mesh = {Administration, Inhalation ; Asthma/*drug therapy ; Bronchodilator Agents/*therapeutic use ; Dry Powder Inhalers/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Metered Dose Inhalers/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Poland ; }, abstract = {The term "carbon footprint" describes the emission of greenhouse gases into the environment as a result of human activities. The healthcare sector is responsible for 5-8% of the value of global greenhouse gas emissions, of which medical aerosols account for only 0.03% of the total emissions. The reduction of greenhouse gases, including those used for the production and use of medicinal products and medical devices, is part of the responsibilities that Poland and the respective countries should undertake in order to implement the assumptions of international law. At the level of medical law, this obligation correlates with the need to exercise due diligence in the process of providing health services, including the selection of low-emission medical products and devices (inhalers) and providing patients with information on how to handle used products and devices, with particular emphasis on those that imply greenhouse gas emissions. Pressurized metered dose inhalers (pMDI) containing the hydrofluoroalkane 134a demonstrate the largest carbon footprint, followed by a metered dose liquid inhaler and dry powder inhalers (DPI). The carbon footprint of DPI with a given drug is 13-32 times lower than it is in the case of the corresponding pMDI. Replacement of pMDI by DPI is one of the effective methods to reduce the carbon footprint of inhalers, and the replacement should be based on current medical knowledge. A recycling system for all types of inhalers must be urgently implemented.}, }
@article {pmid34493886, year = {2021}, author = {Marx, W and Haunschild, R and Bornmann, L}, title = {Heat waves: a hot topic in climate change research.}, journal = {Theoretical and applied climatology}, volume = {146}, number = {1-2}, pages = {781-800}, pmid = {34493886}, issn = {0177-798X}, abstract = {Research on heat waves (periods of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity) is a newly emerging research topic within the field of climate change research with high relevance for the whole of society. In this study, we analyzed the rapidly growing scientific literature dealing with heat waves. No summarizing overview has been published on this literature hitherto. We developed a suitable search query to retrieve the relevant literature covered by the Web of Science (WoS) as complete as possible and to exclude irrelevant literature (n = 8,011 papers). The time evolution of the publications shows that research dealing with heat waves is a highly dynamic research topic, doubling within about 5 years. An analysis of the thematic content reveals the most severe heat wave events within the recent decades (1995 and 2003), the cities and countries/regions affected (USA, Europe, and Australia), and the ecological and medical impacts (drought, urban heat islands, excess hospital admissions, and mortality). An alarming finding is that the limit for survivability may be reached at the end of the twenty-first century in many regions of the world due to the fatal combination of rising temperatures and humidity levels measured as "wet-bulb temperature" (WBT). Risk estimation and future strategies for adaptation to hot weather are major political issues. We identified 104 citation classics, which include fundamental early works of research on heat waves and more recent works (which are characterized by a relatively strong connection to climate change).}, }
@article {pmid34493406, year = {2022}, author = {Fuller, MG and Cavanaugh, N and Green, S and Duderstadt, K}, title = {Climate Change and State of the Science for Children's Health and Environmental Health Equity.}, journal = {Journal of pediatric health care : official publication of National Association of Pediatric Nurse Associates &amp; Practitioners}, volume = {36}, number = {1}, pages = {20-26}, doi = {10.1016/j.pedhc.2021.08.003}, pmid = {34493406}, issn = {1532-656X}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Natural Disasters ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is impacting the physical and mental health of children and families. This is a state of the science update regarding the impacts of climate change for pediatric-focused health care providers and advanced practice registered nurses.<br><br>METHOD: Using an equity lens, the authors reviewed and synthesized current literature regarding the adverse impacts of climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: The poor and communities of color are disproportionately impacted by climate change. Physical health impacts include increased vector and water-born infectious diseases, increases in asthma and respiratory infections, and undernutrition. Social disruptions lead to human trafficking. Climate change is associated with mental health concerns, including anxiety and posttraumatic stress after natural disasters.<br><br>DISCUSSION: As clinicians, pediatric-focused providers, and advanced practice registered nurses should use multipronged and interdisciplinary approaches to address or prevent the adverse impacts of climate change. Advocacy at all government levels is necessary to safeguard children and vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid34492957, year = {2021}, author = {Bokor, B and Santos, CS and Kostoláni, D and Machado, J and da Silva, MN and Carvalho, SMP and Vaculík, M and Vasconcelos, MW}, title = {Mitigation of climate change and environmental hazards in plants: Potential role of the beneficial metalloid silicon.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {416}, number = {}, pages = {126193}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.126193}, pmid = {34492957}, issn = {1873-3336}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Metalloids ; Plants ; *Silicon ; }, abstract = {In the last decades, the concentration of atmospheric CO2 and the average temperature have been increasing, and this trend is expected to become more severe in the near future. Additionally, environmental stresses including drought, salinity, UV-radiation, heavy metals, and toxic elements exposure represent a threat for ecosystems and agriculture. Climate and environmental changes negatively affect plant growth, biomass and yield production, and also enhance plant susceptibility to pests and diseases. Silicon (Si), as a beneficial element for plants, is involved in plant tolerance and/or resistance to various abiotic and biotic stresses. The beneficial role of Si has been shown in various plant species and its accumulation relies on the root's uptake capacity. However, Si uptake in plants depends on many biogeochemical factors that may be substantially altered in the future, affecting its functional role in plant protection. At present, it is not clear whether Si accumulation in plants will be positively or negatively affected by changing climate and environmental conditions. In this review, we focused on Si interaction with the most important factors of global change and environmental hazards in plants, discussing the potential role of its application as an alleviation strategy for climate and environmental hazards based on current knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid34492030, year = {2021}, author = {Gusmão, AC and Evangelista-Vale, JC and Pires-Oliveira, JC and Barnett, AA and da Silva, OD}, title = {New records and modelling the impacts of climate change on the black-tailed marmosets.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {e0256270}, pmid = {34492030}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Brazil ; Callitrichinae/*physiology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Climate change represents an unprecedented threat to global biodiversity and, for many species, gaps in our knowledge of their biology remain acute. Gaps in baseline knowledge, such as confirmed identifications (Linnean shortfalls) and adequate collections (Wallacean shortfalls), need to be minimized with new studies, since this is often critical for effective conservation. Despite the increase in scientific research on primates in the southwest of the Brazilian Amazon, little is known about the species Mico nigriceps (Ferrari &amp; Lopes, 1992) Primates, Platirryni. In the current study, we sought to reduce the extent of the Wallacean shortfall for M. nigriceps, understand whether climate change represents a threat to the distribution of the species, and identify priority areas for its conservation. Accordingly, we provide 121 new records in 14 locations, obtained directly from the field, and five from the literature. Using this, we carried out ecological niche modeling, to better understand how environmental suitability might limit the area occupied by the species. We then projected a distribution for 2070 with the SSP2-4.5 (more optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (more pessimistic) scenarios. Our data confirmed the geographic distribution of the species as being restricted to headwaters of the Ji-Paraná/Machado river, but with a 400 km extension to the south. Under the modeled climate change scenarios, the area suitable for the species declines by 21% under the most optimistic, and by 27% in the pessimistic, scenario across the projected 50-year period. Although we have expanded the area of known occurrence for this species, we point out that climate change threatens the stability of this newly-discovered population strongly, and that this danger is intensified by deforestation, fire and hunting. We recommend that further studies be carried out to confirm the presence of the species in adjacent areas, those indicated by generated models as being potential environmentally suitable. In addition, we recommend intensifying forest restoration in currently pastured areas, and protection of the areas forming the current and future habitat of this species through such measures as protected area creation.}, }
@article {pmid34491973, year = {2021}, author = {Nabeel, I and Caraballo-Arias, Y and Perkison, WB and McCarthy, RB and Saberi, P and Berenji, M and Goldman, RH and Laestadius, JG and Sokas, RK and Das, R and Senay, E and Wilkenfeld, M and Cook-Shimanek, M and , }, title = {Proposed Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies Related to Climate Change: Guidance for OEM Professionals.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {63}, number = {9}, pages = {e650-e656}, pmid = {34491973}, issn = {1536-5948}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Climate Change ; *Environmental Medicine ; Humans ; *Occupational Medicine ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an urgent challenge amplified by socioeconomic factors that demands thoughtful public health responses from OEM professionals. This guidance statement from the American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine focuses on the different strategies that these health professionals can implement to protect workers from health impacts associated with climate change hazards, foster workplace resilience in the face of rapidly changing environments, and take the necessary steps to mitigate the effects of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34491603, year = {2021}, author = {Wege, M and Salas, L and LaRue, M}, title = {Ice matters: Life-history strategies of two Antarctic seals dictate climate change eventualities in the Weddell Sea.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {23}, pages = {6252-6262}, pmid = {34491603}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Pew Charitable Trusts/ ; 1543311//National Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Caniformia ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Ice Cover ; *Seals, Earless ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are not uniform and ice-obligate species with dissimilar life-history characteristics will likely respond differently to their changing ecosystems. We use a unique data set of Weddell Leptonychotes weddellii and crabeater seals' (CESs) Lobodon carcinophaga breeding season distribution in the Weddell Sea, determined from satellite imagery. We contrast the theoretical climate impacts on both ice-obligate predators who differ in life-history characteristics: CESs are highly specialized Antarctic krill Euphausia superba predators and breed in the seasonal pack ice; Weddell seals (WESs) are generalist predators and breed on comparatively stable fast ice. We used presence-absence data and a suite of remotely sensed environmental variables to build habitat models. Each of the environmental predictors is multiplied by a 'climate change score' based on known responses to climate change to create a 'change importance product'. Results show CESs are more sensitive to climate change than WESs. Crabeater seals prefer to breed close to krill, and the compounding effects of changing sea ice concentrations and sea surface temperatures, the proximity to krill and abundance of stable breeding ice, can influence their post-breeding foraging success and ultimately their future breeding success. But in contrast to the Ross Sea, here WESs prefer to breed closer to larger colonies of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri). This suggests that the Weddell Sea may currently be prey-abundant, allowing the only two air-breathing Antarctic silverfish predators (Pleuragramma antarctica) (WESs and emperor penguins) to breed closer to each other. This is the first basin-scale, region-specific comparison of breeding season habitat in these two key Antarctic predators based on real-world data to compare climate change responses. This work shows that broad-brush, basin-scale approaches to understanding species-specific responses to climate change are not always appropriate, and regional models are needed-especially when designing marine protected areas.}, }
@article {pmid34491425, year = {2021}, author = {Barnes, DKA and Sands, CJ and Paulsen, ML and Moreno, B and Moreau, C and Held, C and Downey, R and Bax, N and Stark, JS and Zwerschke, N}, title = {Societal importance of Antarctic negative feedbacks on climate change: blue carbon gains from sea ice, ice shelf and glacier losses.}, journal = {Die Naturwissenschaften}, volume = {108}, number = {5}, pages = {43}, pmid = {34491425}, issn = {1432-1904}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Feedback ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Ice Cover ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Diminishing prospects for environmental preservation under climate change are intensifying efforts to boost capture, storage and sequestration (long-term burial) of carbon. However, as Earth's biological carbon sinks also shrink, remediation has become a key part of the narrative for terrestrial ecosystems. In contrast, blue carbon on polar continental shelves have stronger pathways to sequestration and have increased with climate-forced marine ice losses-becoming the largest known natural negative feedback on climate change. Here we explore the size and complex dynamics of blue carbon gains with spatiotemporal changes in sea ice (60-100 MtCyear[-1]), ice shelves (4-40 MtCyear[-1] = giant iceberg generation) and glacier retreat (< 1 MtCyear[-1]). Estimates suggest that, amongst these, reduced duration of seasonal sea ice is most important. Decreasing sea ice extent drives longer (not necessarily larger biomass) smaller cell-sized phytoplankton blooms, increasing growth of many primary consumers and benthic carbon storage-where sequestration chances are maximal. However, sea ice losses also create positive feedbacks in shallow waters through increased iceberg movement and scouring of benthos. Unlike loss of sea ice, which enhances existing sinks, ice shelf losses generate brand new carbon sinks both where giant icebergs were, and in their wake. These also generate small positive feedbacks from scouring, minimised by repeat scouring at biodiversity hotspots. Blue carbon change from glacier retreat has been least well quantified, and although emerging fjords are small areas, they have high storage-sequestration conversion efficiencies, whilst blue carbon in polar waters faces many diverse and complex stressors. The identity of these are known (e.g. fishing, warming, ocean acidification, non-indigenous species and plastic pollution) but not their magnitude of impact. In order to mediate multiple stressors, research should focus on wider verification of blue carbon gains, projecting future change, and the broader environmental and economic benefits to safeguard blue carbon ecosystems through law.}, }
@article {pmid34490433, year = {2021}, author = {Vione, D and Minero, C and Carena, L}, title = {Fluorophores in surface freshwaters: importance, likely structures, and possible impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {23}, number = {10}, pages = {1429-1442}, doi = {10.1039/d1em00273b}, pmid = {34490433}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Humic Substances/analysis ; Lakes ; Spectrometry, Fluorescence ; }, abstract = {Fluorescence spectroscopy is one of the most useful techniques currently available for the characterisation of organic matter in natural water samples, because it combines easy availability of instrumentation, high sensitivity and limited requirements for sample treatment. The main fluorophores that can be found in natural waters are usually proteins (and/or free amino acids) and humic substances (humic and fulvic acids). The identification of these fluorescent compounds in water samples helps to obtain information about, among others, biological activity in the water body, possible transport of organic matter from soil, and the phenomenon of photobleaching that decreases both the absorbance and (usually) the fluorescence of natural organic matter. Interestingly, all these phenomena can be affected by climate change, which could alter to different extents the ratio between aquagenic and pedogenic fluorophores. Several events induced by warming in natural waters (and especially lake water) could enhance algal growth, thereby also enhancing the production of aquagenic organic matter. Intense precipitation events could increase the export of pedogenic material to surface waters, while photobleaching would be enhanced in the epilimnion of lakes when summer stratification becomes longer and more stable because of higher temperatures. Interestingly, photobleaching affects humic substances to a higher extent compared to protein-like material, thus protein fluorescence signals could be more preserved in stratified waters.}, }
@article {pmid34489585, year = {2021}, author = {Else, H}, title = {Climate change implicated in Germany's deadly floods.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-02330-y}, pmid = {34489585}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid34489526, year = {2021}, author = {Zhu, Y and Yu, Q and Luo, Q and Zhang, H and Zhao, J and Ju, Z and Du, Y and Yang, Y}, title = {Impacts of climate change on suitability zonation for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, Northeast China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {13103}, pmid = {34489526}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Global climate change is causing notable shifts in the environmental suitability of the main regions involved in potato cultivation and has, thus, changed the production potential of potatoes. These shifts can be mapped at fine scales to better understand climate change within areas of potato cultivation and to find infrastructural- and breeding-based solutions. As a case study, we have identified and mapped the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in areas suitable for potato cultivation in Jilin Province, China. We identified a discontinuity in climate change trends between 1961 and 2018 based on data for Jilin Province, and analyzed the averages and linear trends for six important climatic parameters. We used the averages of these climatic parameters to establish climate models for the province and determined cultivation using a multi-criteria, decision-based model that integrates Analytical Hierarchy Process Weighted Principal Component Analysis (AHP-PCA) and Geographic Information System (GIS). We mapped the environmentally suitable areas for potato cultivation at a 3-km resolution based on the geo-climate model for each time period and analyzed differences between them. We found that "Most suitable" areas for potato cultivation were mainly distributed in the central area of Jilin Province, "Suitable" areas were located in the northwestern plains, and "Sub-suitable" areas were located in the eastern mountainous areas. In contrast, "Not suitable" areas occur mainly in the high-altitude areas in the east. The areas of "Most suitable" and "Suitable" areas for potato cultivation in Jilin Province were increasing, with increasing rates of 0.37 × 1,000 km[2] decade[-1] (R[2] = 0.58, P < 0.01) and 0.20 × 1,000 km[2] decade[-1] (R[2] = 0.28, P < 0.01), respectively, while the extent of "Sub-suitable" areas is decreasing, with a decreasing rate of 0.58 × 1,000 km[2] decade[-1] (R[2] = 0.53, P < 0.05). The area of "Not suitable" areas had undergone little change. "Most suitable" and "Suitable" areas for potato cultivation showed a trend towards northward expansion. Overall, our results suggest that global climate change has had a positive impact on potato cultivation in Jilin Province over the past 58 years.}, }
@article {pmid34489320, year = {2021}, author = {Merino, JG}, title = {Climate Change.}, journal = {Neurology}, volume = {97}, number = {14}, pages = {657}, doi = {10.1212/WNL.0000000000012692}, pmid = {34489320}, issn = {1526-632X}, }
@article {pmid34487445, year = {2021}, author = {Salas, RN and Ebi, KL}, title = {The Health Benefits of Urgent Upstream Action on Climate Change.}, journal = {Annals of internal medicine}, volume = {174}, number = {11}, pages = {1612-1613}, doi = {10.7326/M21-3347}, pmid = {34487445}, issn = {1539-3704}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34487339, year = {2021}, author = {Brockhaus, M and Di Gregorio, M and Djoudi, H and Moeliono, M and Pham, TT and Wong, GY}, title = {The forest frontier in the Global South: Climate change policies and the promise of development and equity.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {12}, pages = {2238-2255}, pmid = {34487339}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {14200149//Research Institute for Humanity and Nature/ ; ES/K006576/1//Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, University of Leeds/ ; ES/K00879X/1//Economic and Social Research Council/ ; 96964//Volkswagen Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forests ; Humans ; Policy ; Politics ; }, abstract = {Halting forest loss and achieving sustainable development in an equitable manner require state, non-state actors, and entire societies in the Global North and South to tackle deeply established patterns of inequality and power relations embedded in forest frontiers. Forest and climate governance in the Global South can provide an avenue for the transformational change needed-yet, does it? We analyse the politics and power in four cases of mitigation, adaptation, and development arenas. We use a political economy lens to explore the transformations taking place when climate policy meets specific forest frontiers in the Global South, where international, national and local institutions, interests, ideas, and information are at play. We argue that lasting and equitable outcomes will require a strong discursive shift within dominant institutions and among policy actors to redress policies that place responsibilities and burdens on local people in the Global South, while benefits from deforestation and maladaptation are taken elsewhere. What is missing is a shared transformational objective and priority to keep forests standing among all those involved from afar in the major forest frontiers in the tropics.}, }
@article {pmid34486228, year = {2021}, author = {Baumbusch, J and Blakey, E and Carapellotti, A and Dohmen, M and Kagan, SH and Melendez-Torres, GJ}, title = {This alarm is not a drill: We call gerontological nurses to act on climate change.}, journal = {International journal of older people nursing}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {e12421}, doi = {10.1111/opn.12421}, pmid = {34486228}, issn = {1748-3743}, mesh = {Aged ; Climate Change ; *Geriatric Nursing ; *Geriatrics ; Humans ; *Nurses ; }, }
@article {pmid34486057, year = {2021}, author = {Burnier, M and Fouque, D}, title = {Global warming applied to dialysis: facts and figures.}, journal = {Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association}, volume = {36}, number = {12}, pages = {2167-2169}, doi = {10.1093/ndt/gfab260}, pmid = {34486057}, issn = {1460-2385}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Renal Dialysis ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid34485747, year = {2021}, author = {Waaswa, A and Nkurumwa, AO and Kibe, AM and Kipkemoi, NJ}, title = {Communicating climate change adaptation strategies: climate-smart agriculture information dissemination pathways among smallholder potato farmers in Gilgil Sub-County, Kenya.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {8}, pages = {e07873}, pmid = {34485747}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Proven and sustainable practices like climate-smart agricultural practices (CSAPs) need to be prioritized and promoted for uptake especially by the farmers to achieve sustainable development. These are capable of contributing to the realization of sustainable development goals through averting food and nutritional insecurity, increasing and sustaining yields that translate into increased incomes and later reduced poverty. This is because CSAPs enable farmers to adapt and mitigate climate change effects. However, due to inappropriate communication of CSAPs to the farmers, to date, some farmers still see no escape route from the frightening effects of climate change and they are currently adopting a rather fatalistic attitude. This study investigated the information dissemination pathways used by different categories of smallholder potato farmers for and practice of CSAPs. It found a difference between information sources and practice of CSAPs at a 5% level of significance (χ2 = 100.12139, df = 2, p < 0.05, Cramer's V = 1.0), and a difference in the use of the three information dissemination pathways between men and women at a 5% level of significance (χ2 = 6.05949, df = 2, p < 0.05, Cramer's V = 0.17406). The three information dissemination pathways included media, neighbors and friends, and extension officers. Generally, farmers were aware and practiced the CSAPs investigated in this study except for irrigation with high awareness yet with low uptake percentage and potato seedlings and minitubers both with low awareness and practice respectively. This study recommended mainstreaming of CSAPs information.}, }
@article {pmid34483407, year = {2021}, author = {Sanford, M and Painter, J and Yasseri, T and Lorimer, J}, title = {Controversy around climate change reports: a case study of Twitter responses to the 2019 IPCC report on land.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {167}, number = {3-4}, pages = {59}, pmid = {34483407}, issn = {0165-0009}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 205212/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: In August 2019, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL), which generated extensive societal debate and interest in mainstream and social media. Using computational and conceptual text analysis, we examined more than 6,000 English-language posts on Twitter to establish the relative presence of different topics. Then, we assessed their levels of toxicity and sentiment polarity as an indication of contention and controversy. We find first that meat consumption and dietary options became one of the most discussed issues on Twitter in response to the IPCC report, even though it was a relatively minor element of the report; second, this new issue of controversy (meat and diet) had similar, high levels of toxicity to strongly contentious issues in previous IPCC reports (skepticism about climate science and the credibility of the IPCC). We suggest that this is in part a reflection of increasingly polarized narratives about meat and diet found in other areas of public discussion and of a movement away from criticism of climate science towards criticism of climate solutions. Finally, we discuss the possible implications of these findings for the work of the IPCC in anticipating responses to its reports and responding to them effectively.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03182-1.}, }
@article {pmid34482591, year = {2021}, author = {Bairos-Novak, KR and Hoogenboom, MO and van Oppen, MJH and Connolly, SR}, title = {Coral adaptation to climate change: Meta-analysis reveals high heritability across multiple traits.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {22}, pages = {5694-5710}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15829}, pmid = {34482591}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Animals ; *Anthozoa/genetics ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is a rapidly intensifying selection pressure on biodiversity across the globe and, particularly, on the world's coral reefs. The rate of adaptation to climate change is proportional to the amount of phenotypic variation that can be inherited by subsequent generations (i.e., narrow-sense heritability, h[2]). Thus, traits that have higher heritability (e.g., h[2] > 0.5) are likely to adapt to future conditions faster than traits with lower heritability (e.g., h[2] < 0.1). Here, we synthesize 95 heritability estimates across 19 species of reef-building corals. Our meta-analysis reveals low heritability (h[2] < 0.25) of gene expression metrics, intermediate heritability (h[2] = 0.25-0.50) of photochemistry, growth, and bleaching, and high heritability (h[2] > 0.50) for metrics related to survival and immune responses. Some of these values are higher than typically observed in other taxa, such as survival and growth, while others were more comparable, such as gene expression and photochemistry. There was no detectable effect of temperature on heritability, but narrow-sense heritability estimates were generally lower than broad-sense estimates, indicative of significant non-additive genetic variation across traits. Trait heritability also varied depending on coral life stage, with bleaching and growth in juveniles generally having lower heritability compared to bleaching and growth in larvae and adults. These differences may be the result of previous stabilizing selection on juveniles or may be due to constrained evolution resulting from genetic trade-offs or genetic correlations between growth and thermotolerance. While we find no evidence that heritability decreases under temperature stress, explicit tests of the heritability of thermal tolerance itself-such as coral thermal reaction norm shape-are lacking. Nevertheless, our findings overall reveal high trait heritability for the majority of coral traits, suggesting corals may have a greater potential to adapt to climate change than has been assumed in recent evolutionary models.}, }
@article {pmid34482460, year = {2022}, author = {Ozdemir, D}, title = {The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Asian countries: a heterogeneous panel data approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {8205-8217}, pmid = {34482460}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {While climate change is having serious impacts on agriculture and may require ongoing adaptation, short-run threats to global food security are also crucial for developing countries. We use dynamic and asymmetric panel autoregressive distributed lag estimators to investigate how the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity vary depending upon the short run and long run in Asia over the period of 1980-2016. The results confirmed that there is a long-run relationship between agricultural productivity and climate change variables; however, only CO2 emissions could be linked to agricultural productivity in the short run. Moreover, while the direction of this effect is positive for the short run, it turns into negative in the long run confirming that carbon fertilization in the atmosphere can to some extent have a positive effect on agricultural productivity.}, }
@article {pmid34482110, year = {2021}, author = {Mafi-Gholami, D and Pirasteh, S and Ellison, JC and Jaafari, A}, title = {Fuzzy-based vulnerability assessment of coupled social-ecological systems to multiple environmental hazards and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {299}, number = {}, pages = {113573}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113573}, pmid = {34482110}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Indian Ocean ; }, abstract = {Climate change and combining related parameters of environmental hazards have left a considerable challenge in assessing social-ecological vulnerability. Here we integrated a fuzzy-based approach in the vulnerability assessment of mangrove social-ecological systems combining environmental parameters, socio-economic, and vegetative components from exposure dimensions, sensitivity and adaptive capacity along the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman for the first time. This study aims to provide critical information for habitat-scale management strategies and adaptation plans by assessing the vulnerability of mangrove social-ecological systems. This study provides a methodology framework that consists of five steps. Step 1: We combined the fuzzy weighted maps of seven environmental hazards, including tidal range, maximum wind speeds, drought magnitude, maximum temperatures, extreme storm surge, sea-level rise, significant wave height, and social vulnerability. This map combination determined that the computed exposure index is from 1.07 to 4.32 across the study areas, with an increasing trend from the coasts of the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Step 2: We integrated the fuzzy weighted maps of four sensitivity variables, including area change, health change, seaward edge retreat, and production potential change. The findings show that the sensitivity index is from 1.40 to 2.64 across the study areas, increasing the trend from the Persian Gulf coast to the Gulf of Oman. Step 3: Besides, we combined the fuzzy weighted maps of three adaptive capacity variables, including the availability of migration areas, recruitment, and local communities' participation in restoration projects and education programs. The result showed that the index value across the study areas varies between 0.087 and 2.38, decreasing the trend from the Persian Gulf coast to the Gulf of Oman. Step 4: Implementing fuzzy hierarchical analysis process to determine the relative weight of variables corresponding to exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Step 5: The integration of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity and the vulnerability index maps in the study areas showed variation from 0.25 to 5.92, with the vulnerability of mangroves from the west coast of the Persian Gulf (Nayband) decreasing towards Khamir, then increasing to the eastern coasts of the Gulf of Oman (Jask and Gwadar). Overall, the results indicate the importance of the proposed approach to the vulnerability of mangroves at the habitat scale along a coastal area and across environmental gradients of climatic, maritime and socio-economic variables. This study validated the findings based on the ground truth measurements, and high-resolution satellite data incorporated the Consistency Rate (CR) in the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The overall accuracy of all classified remote sensing images and maps consistently exceeded 90%, and the CR of the 25 completed questionnaires was <0.1. Finally, this study indicates differences in vulnerability of various habitats, leading to focus conservation completion and rehabilitation and climate change adaptation planning to support the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)-13 implementation.}, }
@article {pmid34480869, year = {2021}, author = {Marques, R and Krüger, RF and Cunha, SK and Silveira, AS and Alves, DMCC and Rodrigues, GD and Peterson, AT and Jiménez-García, D}, title = {Climate change impacts on Anopheles (K.) cruzii in urban areas of Atlantic Forest of Brazil: Challenges for malaria diseases.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {224}, number = {}, pages = {106123}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2021.106123}, pmid = {34480869}, issn = {1873-6254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anopheles ; Brazil/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Humans ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; Mosquito Vectors ; }, abstract = {Around 27% of South Americans live in central and southern Brazil. Of 19,400 human malaria cases in Brazil in 2018, some were from the southern and southeastern states. High abundance of malaria vectors is generally positively associated with malaria incidence. Expanding geographic distributions of Anopheles vector mosquito species (e.g. A. cruzii) in the face of climate change processes would increase risk of such malaria transmission; such risk is of particular concern in regions that hold human population concentrations near present limits of vector species' geographic distributions. We modeled effects of likely climate changes on the distribution of A. cruzii, evaluating two scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions for 2050, as simulated in 21 general circulation models and two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2050. We tested 1305 candidate models, and chose among them based on statistical significance, predictive performance, and complexity. The models closely approximated the known geographic distribution of the species under current conditions. Under scenarios of future climate change, we noted increases in suitable area for the mosquito vector species in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states, including areas close to 30 densely populated cities. Under RCP 8.5, our models anticipate areal increases of >75% for this important malaria vector in the vicinity of 20 large Brazilian cities. We developed models that anticipate increased suitability for the mosquito species; around 50% of Brazilians reside in these areas, and ∼89% of foreign tourists visit coastal areas in this region. Under climate change thereefore, the risk and vulnerability of human populations to malaria transmission appears bound to increase.}, }
@article {pmid34478595, year = {2022}, author = {Franke, JA and Müller, C and Minoli, S and Elliott, J and Folberth, C and Gardner, C and Hank, T and Izaurralde, RC and Jägermeyr, J and Jones, CD and Liu, W and Olin, S and Pugh, TAM and Ruane, AC and Stephens, H and Zabel, F and Moyer, EJ}, title = {Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {167-181}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15868}, pmid = {34478595}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Farmers ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets." A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climate-related losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end of century warming using seven process-based models simulating five major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid34478590, year = {2021}, author = {Xu, X and Ouyang, X and Gu, Y and Cheng, K and Smith, P and Sun, J and Li, Y and Pan, G}, title = {Climate change may interact with nitrogen fertilizer management leading to different ammonia loss in China's croplands.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {24}, pages = {6525-6535}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15874}, pmid = {34478590}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {BB/N013484/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Ammonia/analysis ; China ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Fertilizers/analysis ; Humans ; Nitrogen/analysis ; }, abstract = {Despite research into the response of ammonia (NH3) volatilization in farmland to various meteorological factors, the potential impact of future climate change on NH3 volatilization is not fully understood. Based on a database consisting of 1063 observations across China, nonlinear NH3 models considering crop type, meteorological, soil and management variables were established via four machine learning methods, including support vector machine, multi-layer perceptron, gradient boosting machine and random forest (RF). The RF model had the highest R[2] of 0.76 and the lowest RMSE of 0.82 kg NH3 -N ha[-][1] , showing the best simulation capability. Results of model importance indicated that NH3 volatilization was mainly controlled by total input of N fertilizer, followed by meteorological factors, human managements and soil characteristics. The NH3 emissions of China's cereal production (paddy rice, wheat and maize) in 2018 was estimated to be 3.3 Mt NH3 -N. By 2050, NH3 volatilization will increase by 23.1-32.0% under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), and climate change will have the greatest impact on NH3 volatilization in the Yangtze river agro-region of China due to high warming effects. However, the potential increase in NH3 volatilization under future climate change can be mitigated by 26.1-47.5% through various N fertilizer management optimization options.}, }
@article {pmid34476822, year = {2022}, author = {Nadeau, KC and Agache, I and Jutel, M and Annesi Maesano, I and Akdis, M and Sampath, V and D'Amato, G and Cecchi, L and Traidl-Hoffmann, C and Akdis, CA}, title = {Climate change: A call to action for the United Nations.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {77}, number = {4}, pages = {1087-1090}, doi = {10.1111/all.15079}, pmid = {34476822}, issn = {1398-9995}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid34476707, year = {2022}, author = {Tang, SL and Song, YB and Zeng, B and Dong, M}, title = {Potential distribution of the extremely endangered species Ostrya rehderiana (Betulaceae) in China under future climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {5}, pages = {7782-7792}, pmid = {34476707}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2016YFC0503100//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 31670429//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 31400346//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Betulaceae ; Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, which may increase the extinction risk of rare species, particularly those like Ostrya rehderiana Chun (Betulaceae) with very few remaining extant wild individuals. We aimed to estimate the potential distribution of O. rehderiana under climate change and to analyze possible relevant climatic factors. Maximum entropy (Maxent) was employed to model the potential distribution of O. rehderiana under present and future climate scenarios. Suitable habitat areas in different periods and the main contributing climate factors were identified using species distribution models. The minimum temperature in winter and precipitation seasonality were the principal climatic factors influencing the establishment of O. rehderiana. The proportion of high potential distribution area in China was 3.91% and would further shrink significantly under changing climate, especially reduce by 97% under high radiative forcing. The extinction risk of O. rehderiana would still be extraordinarily high under future climate scenarios. The Tianmu and Luoxiao Mountains would be the only potential refugia for O. rehderiana in the future. Special conservation efforts are urgently required to rescue extremely endangered species as O. rehderiana. We propose priorities for the conservation region and suggestions for conservation management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid34476697, year = {2022}, author = {Khan, AA and Khan, SU and Ali, MAS and Javed, T and Khan, A and Luo, J}, title = {An impact of climate change and groundwater salinity on shadow price of water, farmers' revenue, and socioeconomic and environmental indicators in district Kohat-Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {5}, pages = {7352-7365}, pmid = {34476697}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Environmental Indicators ; *Farmers ; *Groundwater ; Humans ; Pakistan ; Salinity ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Globally, agricultural productivity is adversely impacted due to climatic changes as the temperatures rises and precipitation decreases, and especially in Pakistan, which ultimately enhanced groundwater salinity and harmed water quality in the country. However, the impacts of groundwater salinity and climate change on farmers' revenue have not been fully understood in Pakistan. Therefore, the focus of current research is the assessment of shadow price of water, farmers' revenue, and socioeconomic and environmental indicators affected by variations in groundwater salinity, precipitation, and temperature. The estimation of crop yield sensitivity to groundwater salinity, precipitation, and temperature and their prediction for 2030, 2040, and 2050 time periods was accomplished through the technique of General Maximum Entropy and Response-Yield function. Moreover, the assessment of groundwater quality and climate variable impacts on socioeconomic and environmental indicators was obtained through Target Motad-PMP model. In the end, the most suitable climate change scenario in the study area was established by applying a multi-criteria decision-making method. The results revealed that groundwater salinity and temperature expressed a significantly increasing trend with the Z values of 5.82 and 2.15, respectively. While the precipitation depicted a significantly decreasing trend (Z value = -3.37). The negative impact of climatic changes and groundwater salinity was revealed for revenue risk and shadow prices of water. The most negative impact on income risk and shadow prices is during 2050 horizon with a decrease by 11.4 and 19.4% respectively. The environmental index is the most important with a priority of 43.4% compared to the socio-economic indicators. The sub-index water use is also significant in the study area with a priority of 28.1%. A2 is the most appropriate climate scenario conferring to the TOPSIS ranking method. Therefore, the A2 scenario should be taken into account for the policy of adaptation to the climate change wonder in district Kohat.}, }
@article {pmid34476694, year = {2022}, author = {Gong, L and Liu, D and Jiang, L and Li, X and Lv, J}, title = {Distribution characteristics of climate potential productivity of soybean in frigid region and its response to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {5}, pages = {7452-7464}, pmid = {34476694}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Glycine max ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The scope of this study is to analyze the climatic potential productivity of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] and explore the impact of climate change on soybean in the frigid region in China by using daily climatic variables from 144 meteorological stations for the period 1971‒2019. The gradually descending model is used to estimate photosynthesis, light-temperature, and climatic potential productivity of soybean. The results show that climate potential productivity of soybean in the frigid region ranges from large to small: Liaoning > Jilin > Heilongjiang > East Four Leagues (four cities in eastern Inner Mongolia), with Heilongjiang and East Four Leagues showing a significant upward trend. Spatially, the climate potential productivity is larger on plains than that on mountains. The Northeast Plain and Sanjiang Plain are areas with high climate potential productivity. Changes in climatic factors have different impacts on the climate potential productivity of soybean. The influence of temperature changes on the climate potential productivity shows a positive effect, and climate warming compensates for the lack of heat in the frigid region. Furthermore, radiation and precipitation are the main climatic factors leading to spatial differences in the climate potential productivity of soybean in the frigid region. Radiation changes have a positive effect on soybean climate potential productivity in plain areas and a negative effect on the mountains. However, precipitation reduction negatively affects most of the frigid region, while it has a positive effect on the two plains of Heilongjiang. Precipitation responses the needs of soybean growth. Our findings recommend that a transition of soybean planting from the mountainous region to plain, that is, from low potential productivity areas to high potential productivity areas, could be an effective strategy for regional optimization for planting structure and rational utilization of irrigation technology.}, }
@article {pmid34475548, year = {2021}, author = {Bundell, S and Petrić Howe, N}, title = {Dead trees play an under-appreciated role in climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-02391-z}, pmid = {34475548}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid34475385, year = {2021}, author = {Dudney, J and Willing, CE and Das, AJ and Latimer, AM and Nesmith, JCB and Battles, JJ}, title = {Author Correction: Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {5326}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-25692-3}, pmid = {34475385}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid34473770, year = {2021}, author = {Zangiabadi, S and Zaremaivan, H and Brotons, L and Mostafavi, H and Ranjbar, H}, title = {Using climatic variables alone overestimate climate change impacts on predicting distribution of an endemic species.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {e0256918}, pmid = {34473770}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Area Under Curve ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Data Accuracy ; *Ecosystem ; Iran ; Linear Models ; Plant Dispersal/*physiology ; Plants, Medicinal/*physiology ; Principal Component Analysis ; Prunus/*physiology ; *Seasons ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Plant species distribution is constrained by both dynamic and static environmental variables. However, relative contribution of dynamic and static variables in determining species distributions is not clear and has far reaching implications for range change dynamics in a changing world. Prunus eburnea (Spach) Aitch. &amp; Hemsl. is an endemic and medicinal plant species of Iran. It has rendered itself as ecologically important for its functions and services and is currently in need of habitat conservation measures requiring investigation of future potential distribution range. We conducted sampling of 500 points that cover most of Iran plateau and recorded the P. eburnea presence and absence during the period 2015-2017. In this study, we evaluated impacts of using only climatic variables versus combined with topographic and edaphic variables on accuracy criteria and predictive ability of current and future habitat suitability of this species under climate change (CCSM4, RCP 2.6 in 2070) by generalized linear model and generalized boosted model. Models' performances were evaluated using area under the curve, sensitivity, specificity and the true skill statistic. Then, we evaluated here, driving environmental variables determining the distribution of P. eburnea by using principal component analysis and partitioning methods. Our results indicated that prediction with high accuracy of the spatial distribution of P. eburnea requires both climate information, as dynamic primary factors, but also detailed information on soil and topography variables, as static factors. The results emphasized that environmental variable grouping influenced the modelling prediction ability strongly and the use of only climate variables would exaggerate the predicted distribution range under climate change. Results supported using both dynamic and static variables improved accuracy of the modeling and provided more realistic prediction of species distribution under influence of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34473287, year = {2023}, author = {Sasai, F and Roncal-Jimenez, C and Rogers, K and Sato, Y and Brown, JM and Glaser, J and Garcia, G and Sanchez-Lozada, LG and Rodriguez-Iturbe, B and Dawson, JB and Sorensen, C and Hernando, AA and Gonzalez-Quiroz, M and Lanaspa, M and Newman, LS and Johnson, RJ}, title = {Climate change and nephrology.}, journal = {Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {41-48}, pmid = {34473287}, issn = {1460-2385}, support = {DK125351/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; //La Isla Network/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; Climate Change ; *Nephrology ; Dehydration/complications ; *Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/complications ; Kidney ; *Heat Stress Disorders/complications ; }, abstract = {Climate change should be of special concern for the nephrologist, as the kidney has a critical role in protecting the host from dehydration, but it is also a favorite target of heat stress and dehydration. Here we discuss how rising temperatures and extreme heat events may affect the kidney. The most severe presentation of heat stress is heat stroke, which can result in severe electrolyte disturbance and both acute and chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, lesser levels of heat stress also have multiple effects, including exacerbating kidney disease and precipitating cardiovascular events in subjects with established kidney disease. Heat stress can also increase the risk for kidney stones, cause multiple electrolyte abnormalities and induce both acute and chronic kidney disease. Recently there have been multiple epidemics of CKD of uncertain etiology in various regions of the world, including Mesoamerica, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand. There is increasing evidence that climate change and heat stress may play a contributory role in these conditions, although other causes, including toxins, could also be involved. As climate change worsens, the nephrologist should prepare for an increase in diseases associated with heat stress and dehydration.}, }
@article {pmid34471105, year = {2021}, author = {Benedetti, F and Vogt, M and Elizondo, UH and Righetti, D and Zimmermann, NE and Gruber, N}, title = {Major restructuring of marine plankton assemblages under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {5226}, pmid = {34471105}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; *Global Warming ; *Marine Biology ; Phytoplankton ; Plankton/*classification ; Temperature ; Zooplankton ; }, abstract = {Marine phytoplankton and zooplankton form the basis of the ocean's food-web, yet the impacts of climate change on their biodiversity are poorly understood. Here, we use an ensemble of species distribution models for a total of 336 phytoplankton and 524 zooplankton species to determine their present and future habitat suitability patterns. For the end of this century, under a high emission scenario, we find an overall increase in plankton species richness driven by ocean warming, and a poleward shift of the species' distributions at a median speed of 35 km/decade. Phytoplankton species richness is projected to increase by more than 16% over most regions except for the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, zooplankton richness is projected to slightly decline in the tropics, but to increase strongly in temperate to subpolar latitudes. In these latitudes, nearly 40% of the phytoplankton and zooplankton assemblages are replaced by poleward shifting species. This implies that climate change threatens the contribution of plankton communities to plankton-mediated ecosystem services such as biological carbon sequestration.}, }
@article {pmid34469020, year = {2021}, author = {Florko, KRN and Tai, TC and Cheung, WWL and Ferguson, SH and Sumaila, UR and Yurkowski, DJ and Auger-Méthé, M}, title = {Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {24}, number = {12}, pages = {2563-2575}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13866}, pmid = {34469020}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //NSERC Canada Graduate Scholarship-Doctoral/ ; //Leaders Fellowship, Northern Scientific Training Program, NSERC Discovery Program/ ; //Canada Research Chair Program/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Fishes ; Ice Cover ; *Seals, Earless ; }, abstract = {Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.}, }
@article {pmid34467519, year = {2021}, author = {Nelson, KN and O'Dean, E and Knapp, EE and Parker, AJ and Bisbing, SM}, title = {Persistent yet vulnerable: resurvey of an Abies ecotone reveals few differences but vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {102}, number = {12}, pages = {e03525}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.3525}, pmid = {34467519}, issn = {1939-9170}, mesh = {*Abies ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Seedlings ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change is shifting forest tree species distributions across elevational and latitudinal gradients, and these changes are often pronounced at ecotones where species meet their climatic bounds and are replaced by other species. Using an extensive ecotone composed of lower-montane white fir (Abies concolor var. lowiana) and upper-montane red fir (Abies magnifica var. magnifica) in the central Sierra Nevada range of California, USA, we (1) examined how the demographics of the ecotone have responded to recent climate using a field observational study and a historical dataset, (2) quantified climate drivers across species life stages using contemporary demographic data, and (3) tested the potential impacts of future climate on species-specific seedling survival and growth in a fully factorial growth chamber experiment that varied temperature, growing season length, and water availability. A re-examination of the ecotone midpoint after 35 yr suggested a reduction in A. concolor sapling and tree densities and a rise in A. magnifica proportional dominance between surveys. Seedling abundances across the ecotone indicated that A. magnifica tends to dominate the regeneration layer and currently forms an important component of the seedling community at elevations below those where A. magnifica saplings or trees begin to co-dominate stands. Observational and experimental assessments suggest that temperature and precipitation serve as important drivers, differentiating A. concolor vs. A. magnifica distributions, and are primary stressors at the seedling stage. Seedlings of both species were adversely affected by experimental climate treatments, although A. concolor exhibited greater survival and a more conservative growth strategy under extreme climatic stress than A. magnifica. Projections indicate that historical climate conditions will rise by an amount greater than the ecotone's current elevational extent by the end of the 21st century. Differential drivers of species abundances suggest that the projected climate will expand conditions that promote A. concolor abundance and impede A. magnifica abundance across the ecotone; however, disturbance activity and microclimatic conditions will also influence regeneration and overstory tree dynamics. Our study demonstrates the importance of quantifying species-specific responses to climate and indicates that widespread regeneration failure may be one possible consequence in which species exhibit strong sensitivity to projected climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid34465790, year = {2021}, author = {Deroubaix, A and Labuhn, I and Camredon, M and Gaubert, B and Monerie, PA and Popp, M and Ramarohetra, J and Ruprich-Robert, Y and Silvers, LG and Siour, G}, title = {Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {5197}, pmid = {34465790}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {The energy demand for heating and cooling buildings is changing with global warming. Using proxies of climate-driven energy demand based on the heating and cooling Degree-Days methodology applied to thirty global climate model simulations, we show that, over all continental areas, the climate-driven energy demand trends for heating and cooling were weak, changing by less than 10% from 1950 to 1990, but become stronger from 1990 to 2030, changing by more than 10%. With the multi-model mean, the increasing trends in cooling energy demand are more pronounced than the decreasing trends in heating. The changes in cooling, however, are highly variable depending on individual simulations, ranging from a few to several hundred percent in most of the densely populated mid-latitude areas. This work presents an example of the challenges that accompany future energy demand quantification as a result of the uncertainty in the projected climate.}, }
@article {pmid34465050, year = {2021}, author = {Ojo, TO and Adetoro, AA and Ogundeji, AA and Belle, JA}, title = {Quantifying the determinants of climate change adaptation strategies and farmers' access to credit in South Africa.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {792}, number = {}, pages = {148499}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148499}, pmid = {34465050}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Farms ; Humans ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {The damaging effects of climate change on agricultural productivity are on the increase. Relevant adaptation strategies are important to cope with climate change risks and sustain agricultural productivity. This study employed descriptive statistics, multivariate probit (MVP) model and endogenous switching regression model (ESRM), to analyze the data collected using a survey questionnaire from four provinces in South Africa. The study estimated the determining factors influencing the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies and credit access among smallholder farmers in the study areas. The empirical results of the multivariate probit model showed that location, access to extension, non-farm income, farming experience, crop and livestock production, susceptibility, agricultural training and access to credit variables influenced the smallholder decision to adopt climate change adaptation strategies. On the other hand, the ESRM showed that location, age, marital status, gender among others, influenced the decision to adopt climate change adaptation strategies. The variables such as location, education, drought experience affected the smallholder farmers' access to credit. Thus, to improve the adaptive capacity of farmers, stakeholders and government must cooperate and collaborate to improve the conditions under which farmers can gain access to climate change information and suitable agricultural credit as well as policy incentives to ensure overall sustainability of the agricultural sector.}, }
@article {pmid34464796, year = {2022}, author = {Mazière, C and Bodo, M and Perdrau, MA and Cravo-Laureau, C and Duran, R and Dupuy, C and Hubas, C}, title = {Climate change influences chlorophylls and bacteriochlorophylls metabolism in hypersaline microbial mat.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {802}, number = {}, pages = {149787}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149787}, pmid = {34464796}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Bacteriochlorophylls ; Chlorophyll ; Chlorophyll A ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to determine the effect of the climatic change on the phototrophic communities of hypersaline microbial mats. Ocean acidification and warming were simulated alone and together on microbial mats placed into mesocosms. As expected, the temperature in the warming treatments increased by 4 °C from the initial temperature. Surprisingly, no significance difference was observed between the water pH of the different treatments despite of a decrease of 0.4 unit pH in the water reserves of acidification treatments. The salinity increased on the warming treatments and the dissolved oxygen concentration increased and was higher on the acidification treatments. A total of 37 pigments were identified belonging to chlorophylls, carotenes and xanthophylls families. The higher abundance of unknown chlorophyll molecules called chlorophyll derivatives was observed in the acidification alone treatment with a decrease in chlorophyll a abundance. This change in pigmentary composition was accompanied by a higher production of bound extracellular carbohydrates but didn't affect the photosynthetic efficiency of the microbial mats. A careful analysis of the absorption properties of these molecules indicated that these chlorophyll derivatives were likely bacteriochlorophyll c contained in the chlorosomes of green anoxygenic phototroph bacteria. Two hypotheses can be drawn from these results: 1/ the phototrophic communities of the microbial mats were modified under acidification treatment leading to a higher relative abundance of green anoxygenic bacteria, or 2/ the highest availability of CO2 in the environment has led to a shift in the metabolism of green anoxygenic bacteria being more competitive than other phototrophs.}, }
@article {pmid34462847, year = {2021}, author = {Buttke, D and Wild, M and Monello, R and Schuurman, G and Hahn, M and Jackson, K}, title = {Managing Wildlife Disease Under Climate Change.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {406-410}, pmid = {34462847}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Animals ; *Animals, Wild ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid34462575, year = {2021}, author = {Xiong, W and Reynolds, MP and Crossa, J and Schulthess, U and Sonder, K and Montes, C and Addimando, N and Singh, RP and Ammar, K and Gerard, B and Payne, T}, title = {Increased ranking change in wheat breeding under climate change.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {1207-1212}, pmid = {34462575}, issn = {2055-0278}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; Edible Grain/*genetics ; *Gene-Environment Interaction ; Genetic Variation ; Genotype ; *Hot Temperature ; Phenotype ; Plant Breeding/*methods ; Triticum/*genetics ; }, abstract = {The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center develops and annually distributes elite wheat lines to public and private breeders worldwide. Trials have been created in multiple sites over many years to assess the lines' performance for use in breeding and release as varieties, and to provide iterative feedback on refining breeding strategies[1]. The collaborator test sites are experiencing climate change, with new implications for how wheat genotypes are bred and selected[2]. Using a standard quantitative genetic model to analyse four International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center global spring wheat trial datasets, we examine how genotype-environment interactions have changed over recent decades. Notably, crossover interactions-a critical indicator of changes in the ranking of cultivar performance in different environments-have increased over time. Climatic factors explained over 70% of the year-to-year variability in crossover interactions for yield. Yield responses of all lines in trial environments from 1980 to 2018 revealed that climate change has increased the ranking change in breeding targeted to favourable environments by ~15%, while it has maintained or reduced the ranking change in breeding targeted to heat and drought stress by up to 13%. Genetic improvement has generally increased crossover interactions, particularly for wheat targeted to high-yielding environments. However, the latest wheat germplasm developed under heat stress was better adapted and more stable, partly offsetting the increase in ranking changes under the warmer climate.}, }
@article {pmid34461594, year = {2021}, author = {Harth, NS}, title = {Affect, (group-based) emotions, and climate change action.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {140-144}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.07.018}, pmid = {34461594}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {Affect ; *Climate Change ; *Emotions ; Fear ; Guilt ; Humans ; }, abstract = {While there is little scientific doubt that the climate is actually changing, people are relatively averse to taking action. To better understand climate change (in-)action, I will summarize the recent literature that examines the affective and emotional processes associated with climate change. Currently, mainly two routes are discussed: first, the study of affective responses to risk perception and second, conceptualizing climate action as a collective phenomenon. Studies show that personal relevance and perceived importance of environmental issues increase risk perception and that collective environmental actions are driven by group-based emotions. However, instead of focusing mainly on negative affect and (group-based) emotions, such as 'eco guilt' or fear related to climate change, I conclude by suggesting a more optimistic and positive approach to establish new norms of climate-friendly lifestyles and policies.}, }
@article {pmid34461482, year = {2022}, author = {Sun, H and Wang, X and Fan, D and Sun, OJ}, title = {Contrasting vegetation response to climate change between two monsoon regions in Southwest China: The roles of climate condition and vegetation height.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {802}, number = {}, pages = {149643}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149643}, pmid = {34461482}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; }, abstract = {Southwest China is an important biodiversity hotspot in the world and is controlled by the Pacific and Indian Ocean monsoon in the east and west part respectively. However, how abiotic and biotic factors affect the response of vegetation to climate change in different monsoon regions is still not clear. Here we used the annual change rate of growing-season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI trend) during 1982-2015 to explore the vulnerability of vegetation (forests and shrubs) activity to climate change in southwest China. We examined NDVI trend in relation to: 1) climate change trends, i.e. annual change rate of water and energy availability, indicated by the Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), respectively; 2) climatic condition, i.e. mean PDSI and PET during 1982-2015; 3) vegetation height; 4) biome type; 5) monsoon region. The results showed that NDVI generally increased in the Pacific monsoon region, especially in the southern areas, probably because the vegetation under more productive climate were more resistant to climate change, and also because decreased temperature lead to lower evapotranspiration which alleviated the slight drought trend in this region. In contrast, NDVI generally decreased in the Indian Ocean monsoon region which showed more pronounced drought trend, especially in the tall subalpine and tropical forests of Southeast Tibetan Mountains, which supports the "hydraulic limitation hypothesis" that vegetation height interacted with climate change in affecting vegetation vulnerability. Our analysis highlighted the critical roles of different monsoon systems, climate condition and vegetation height in affecting ecosystem vulnerability. We suggest that the (sub)tropical forests in the Pacific monsoon region may have act as an important carbon sink during the past decades, while the tall forests in Southeast Tibetan mountains (a biodiversity center with high carbon stock) are highly vulnerable to climate change and should have priority in ecosystem protection.}, }
@article {pmid34458067, year = {2022}, author = {Park, J}, title = {How can we pay for it all? Understanding the global challenge of financing climate change and sustainable development solutions.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {91-99}, pmid = {34458067}, issn = {2190-6483}, abstract = {Despite the heightened attention to climate change and sustainable development initiatives by governments, civil society groups, and private companies in the USA and worldwide, the international community is confronted with a question that has existed since the 1992 Earth Summit: how can we pay for it all? To better understand this climate change and sustainable development goals (SDGs) funding dilemma, there needs to be greater clarity around four climate change investment and finance-related questions that are frequently absent or inadequately addressed in the academic and policy literature. Firstly, what are or should be the boundaries of climate change investment and finance when the problem of climate change becomes impossible to separate from biodiversity, land use management, and other dilemmas related to the broader SDGs? Secondly, how we should define and what constitutes "adequate" financial resources to address the climate change and SDGs dilemmas on the global level? Thirdly, why is it important to close the gap between climate change adaptation and mitigation funding levels? Finally, what role should the private sector and business actors play in terms of climate change investment and finance issues? In addition to achieving greater clarity around these four issue areas, I argue in this article that three questions are likely to shape the future success (or failure) of the global climate change investment and finance architecture. One, what is likely path of the United Nations as a global climate change/sustainability governance institution? Two, will the emerging Green New Deal model in the USA and in other countries actually materialize? Three, what is the future outlook for "market-fixing" sustainability-driven enterprises?}, }
@article {pmid34458027, year = {2021}, author = {Fu, J and Zhao, L and Liu, C and Sun, B}, title = {Estimating the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins with species distribution model.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e12001}, pmid = {34458027}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {As IUCN critically vulnerable species,the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) have attracted great public attention in recent years. The threats of human disturbance and environmental pollution to this population have been documented extensively. However, research on the sensitivity of this species to climate change is lacking. To understand the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Sousa chinensis, we developed a weighted ensemble model based on 82 occurrence records and six predictor variables (e.g., ocean depth, distance to shore, mean temperature, salinity, ice thickness, and current velocity). According to the true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), our ensemble model presented higher prediction precision than most of the single-algorithm models. It also indicated that ocean depth and distance to shore were the most important predictors in shaping the distribution patterns. The projections for the 2050s and 2100s from our ensemble model indicated a severe adverse impact of climate change on the Sousa chinensis habitat. Over 75% and 80% of the suitable habitat in the present day will be lost in all representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCPS) in the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. With the increased numbers of records of stranding and deaths of Sousa chinensis in recent years, strict management regulations and conservation plans are urgent to safeguard the current suitable habitats. Due to habitat contraction and poleward shift in the future, adaptive management strategies, including designing new reserves and adjusting the location and range of reserves according to the geographical distribution of Sousa chinensis, should be formulated to minimize the impacts of climate change on this species.}, }
@article {pmid34456999, year = {2021}, author = {Kaka, H and Opute, PA and Maboeta, MS}, title = {Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Toxicity of Pesticides towards Earthworms.}, journal = {Journal of toxicology}, volume = {2021}, number = {}, pages = {8527991}, pmid = {34456999}, issn = {1687-8191}, abstract = {This review examined one of the effects of climate change that has only recently received attention, i.e., climate change impacts on the distribution and toxicity of chemical contaminants in the environment. As ecosystem engineers, earthworms are potentially threatened by the increasing use of pesticides. Increases in temperature, precipitation regime changes, and related extreme climate events can potentially affect pesticide toxicity. This review of original research articles, reviews, and governmental and intergovernmental reports focused on the interactions between toxicants and environmental parameters. The latter included temperature, moisture, acidification, hypoxia, soil carbon cycle, and soil dynamics, as altered by climate change. Dynamic interactions between climate change and contaminants can be particularly problematic for organisms since organisms have an upper and lower physiological range, resulting in impacts on their acclimatization capacity. Climate change variables such as temperature and soil moisture also have an impact on acidification. An increase in temperature will impact precipitation which might impact soil pH. Also, an increase in precipitation can result in flooding which can reduce the population of earthworms by not giving juvenile earthworms enough time to develop into reproductive adults. As an independent stressor, hypoxia can affect soil organisms, alter bioavailability, and increase the toxicity of chemicals in some cases. Climate change variables, especially temperature and soil moisture, significantly affect the bioavailability of pesticides in the soil and the growth and reproduction of earthworm species.}, }
@article {pmid34456507, year = {2021}, author = {Hua, T and Zhao, W and Cherubini, F and Hu, X and Pereira, P}, title = {Sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau of China.}, journal = {Landscape ecology}, volume = {36}, number = {12}, pages = {3451-3471}, pmid = {34456507}, issn = {0921-2973}, abstract = {CONTEXT: Climate change has imposed tremendous impacts on ecosystem services. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts mainly focused on a basin or larger scale, or used limited time periods that largely ignore observations of long-term trends at a fine resolution, thereby affecting the recognition of climate change's effect on ecosystem services.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This study conducts a detailed and spatially explicit recognition of climate change's effect on ecosystem services and provides an intuitive map for decision-making and climate change adaptation planning.<br><br>METHODS: We used long-term time series of ecosystem service assessments and various future climate scenarios to quantify the sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.<br><br>RESULTS: Carbon sequestration (CS) and habitat quality experience significant growth, while water retention did not show any trend. Sensitivity patterns of these ecosystem services vary largely. For CS, more than half of the pixels showed a positive sensitivity to climate change, even though the degree of sensitivity is not high. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in the exposure of ecosystem services to future climate changes, and high levels of future climate change increase the intensity of exposure.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates the complex spatial association between ecosystem services and climatic drivers, and these findings can help optimize local response strategies in the context of global warming. For example, the existing protected areas have notable conservation gaps for disturbance of future climate change on ecosystem services, especially in the southeastern part of the study area.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-021-01320-9.}, }
@article {pmid34456401, year = {2021}, author = {Khan, MR and Munira, S}, title = {Climate change adaptation as a global public good: implications for financing.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {167}, number = {3-4}, pages = {50}, pmid = {34456401}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Beginning as an afterthought in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, adaptation as an agenda has come a long way since 1992. With no ambitious mitigation, recent years have witnessed an increasing frequency of extreme climate events, including cross-border or borderless climate risks. Accordingly, the Paris Agreement frames adaptation as a global goal and global responsibility. However, financing for adaptation continues to remain extremely poor, relative to the estimated needs, even though the regime has obligatory provisions for support by developed countries. Why is this so? Why should the majority of the countries, with an insignificant contribution to causing the problem, suffer from increasing climate impacts? How can adaptation finance be enhanced at scale? As a response to these queries, the paper substantiates three claims: (1) that poor funding can be attributed to the territorial framing under the regime that conceptualizes adaptation largely as a local or national public good and, hence, the inefficacy of market mechanisms, (2) that it makes conceptual and political sense to consider adaptation as a global public good, and (3) that such a reframing should make a difference in boosting adaptation finance. In a multi-polar world with different views on adaptation finance, multilateral agencies should lead in promoting the proposed framing.}, }
@article {pmid34456399, year = {2021}, author = {Chinn, S and Hart, PS}, title = {Effects of consensus messages and political ideology on climate change attitudes: inconsistent findings and the effect of a pretest.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {167}, number = {3-4}, pages = {47}, pmid = {34456399}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: There are inconsistent findings concerning the efficacy of consensus messages to persuade individuals to hold scientifically supported positions on climate change. In this experiment, we tested the impact of consensus messages on skeptics' climate beliefs and attitudes and investigated how the decision to pretest initial climate beliefs and attitudes prior to consensus message exposure may influence results. We found that although consensus messages led individuals to report higher scientific agreement estimates, total effects on key variables were likely an artifact of study design; consensus messages only affected climate attitudes and beliefs when they were measured both before and after message exposure. In the absence of a pretest, we did not observe significant total effects of consensus messages on climate outcomes. These results highlight the limitations of consensus messaging strategies at reducing political polarization and the importance of experimental designs that mimic real-world contexts.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03200-2.}, }
@article {pmid34456120, year = {2021}, author = {Jank, B and Rath, J}, title = {Emerging tropane alkaloid contaminations under climate change.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {1101-1103}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2021.08.001}, pmid = {34456120}, issn = {1878-4372}, mesh = {*Alkaloids/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Edible Grain ; Food Contamination/analysis ; Tropanes/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate-driven invasions of toxin-producing plants compromise human health, food safety, and food security. A recent poisoning that involved cereal products distributed by the World Food Programme revealed contamination with tropane alkaloids from seeds of invasive common thorn-apple. With continued global change, plant toxin contaminations could become a more widespread phenomenon.}, }
@article {pmid34455678, year = {2021}, author = {Upward, K and Saunders, V and Maple, M and Usher, K}, title = {Mental health, climate change, and bushfires: What's colonization got to do with it?.}, journal = {International journal of mental health nursing}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {1473-1475}, doi = {10.1111/inm.12927}, pmid = {34455678}, issn = {1447-0349}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid34454200, year = {2021}, author = {Marques, JF and Alves, MB and Silveira, CF and Amaral E Silva, A and Silva, TA and Dos Santos, VJ and Calijuri, ML}, title = {Fires dynamics in the Pantanal: Impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {299}, number = {}, pages = {113586}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113586}, pmid = {34454200}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Fires ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic activities responsible for modifying climatic regimes and land use and land cover (LULC) have been altering fire behavior even in regions with natural occurrences, such as the Pantanal. This biome was highlighted in 2020 due to the record number of fire foci and burned areas registered. Thus, this study aimed to understand how changes in LULC and climate affect the spatial, temporal and magnitude dynamics of fire foci. The Earth Trends Modeler (ETM) was used to identify trends in spatiotemporal bases of environmental and climatic variables. No trend was identified in the historical series of precipitation data. However, an increasing trend was observed for evapotranspiration, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature. For soil moisture, a decreasing trend was observed. The comparison between the mean of the historical series and the year 2020 showed that the variables precipitation, temperature, soil moisture and evapotranspiration had atypical behavior. Such behavior may have contributed to creating a drier environment with available combustible material, leading to a record number of burned areas, about three million hectares (248%) higher than the historical average. The 2020 fire foci data were used in two types of spatial statistical analyses: Grouping, showing that 76% of the registered fire foci were at high risk of fire and; Hot and Cold Spots, indicating high concentrations of Hot Spots in the northern region of the Pantanal, close to Cerrado and Amazon biomes agricultural frontier. The results of the Land Change Modeler (LCM) tool evidenced a strong transition potential from the natural vegetation to agriculture and pasture in the eastern region of the Pantanal, indicating that this could be, in the future, a region of high concentration of fire foci and possibly high risk of fire. This tool also allowed the prediction of a scenario for 2030 that showed that if measures for environmental protection and combating fires are not adopted, in this year, 20% of the Pantanal areas will be for agricultural and pasture use. Finally, the results suggest that the advance of agriculture in the Pantanal and changes in climatic and environmental variables boosted the increase in fire foci and burned areas in the year 2020.}, }
@article {pmid34454187, year = {2021}, author = {Voss, R and Lee, RP and Seidl, L and Keller, F and Fröhling, M}, title = {Global warming potential and economic performance of gasification-based chemical recycling and incineration pathways for residual municipal solid waste treatment in Germany.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {134}, number = {}, pages = {206-219}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2021.07.040}, pmid = {34454187}, issn = {1879-2456}, mesh = {Global Warming ; Incineration ; Recycling ; *Refuse Disposal ; Solid Waste/analysis ; *Waste Management ; }, abstract = {Chemical recycling could facilitate the transition from a linear to a circular carbon economy, where carbon-containing waste is channeled back into the production cycle as a chemical feedstock instead of being incinerated or landfilled. However, the predominant focus on technological aspects of chemical recycling for plastic waste narrows evaluations of its potential in contributing to such a transition. Moreover, it leads to significant controversy about its role in the waste hierarchy as a possible competitor to mechanical recycling. To address these gaps in the literature, this study assesses ecological and economic impacts associated with chemical recycling of residual municipal solid waste in Germany. Combining approaches of life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis, chemical recycling and conventional incineration-based treatment pathways are comparatively evaluated in terms of global warming potential and economic performance (i.e. fixed capital investment, net present value, dynamic payback period, and levelized cost of carbon abatement). Results indicate that compared to incineration-based conventional pathways, chemical recycling can contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in low-emission energy systems. However, the economic performance of chemical recycling is highly dependent on its scale of operation. Additionally, a price premium for recycling products as well as economic instruments for penalizing CO2 emissions are identified to play important roles in the economic performance of chemical recycling.}, }
@article {pmid34453592, year = {2022}, author = {Trnka, M and Bartošová, L and Grammatikopoulou, I and Havlík, P and Olesen, JE and Hlavinka, P and Marek, MV and Vačkářová, D and Skjelvåg, A and Žalud, Z}, title = {The Possibility of Consensus Regarding Climate Change Adaptation Policies in Agriculture and Forestry among Stakeholder Groups in the Czech Republic.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {69}, number = {1}, pages = {128-139}, pmid = {34453592}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; Consensus ; Czech Republic ; *Forestry ; Humans ; Policy ; }, abstract = {As ongoing research efforts contribute to elucidating the consequences of climate change as well as adaptation and mitigation options, aligning the current research knowledge with stakeholder opinions and perceptions remains critical for adopting effective climate change policies. This paper utilizes an interactive survey to (1) address the aforementioned gap in studies involving three groups of stakeholders and opinion makers and (2) perform a comparative primary study of the climate change assumptions, risk perceptions, policy preferences, observations, and knowledge of Czech farmers, governmental policy-makers and researchers. This study shows that the stakeholder groups agree that the climate is clearly changing, attribute this change mostly to man-made causes and expect the negative effects to either prevail or be unevenly geographically distributed. The large majority of all three groups consider unmitigated climate change a major threat even by 2050 and agree that preparing in advance is the best sectoral strategy. Importantly, while investment in adaptation measures is considered the most efficient tool for accelerating the implementation of adaptation measures, the CAP and EU rules (as valid in 2016) are believed to hinder such measures. The results of this study have ramifications for the wider region of Central Europe.}, }
@article {pmid34453442, year = {2021}, author = {Nolan, RH and Collins, L and Leigh, A and Ooi, MKJ and Curran, TJ and Fairman, TA and Resco de Dios, V and Bradstock, R}, title = {Limits to post-fire vegetation recovery under climate change.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {44}, number = {11}, pages = {3471-3489}, doi = {10.1111/pce.14176}, pmid = {34453442}, issn = {1365-3040}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Fires ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; }, abstract = {Record-breaking fire seasons in many regions across the globe raise important questions about plant community responses to shifting fire regimes (i.e., changing fire frequency, severity and seasonality). Here, we examine the impacts of climate-driven shifts in fire regimes on vegetation communities, and likely responses to fire coinciding with severe drought, heatwaves and/or insect outbreaks. We present scenario-based conceptual models on how overlapping disturbance events and shifting fire regimes interact differently to limit post-fire resprouting and recruitment capacity. We demonstrate that, although many communities will remain resilient to changing fire regimes in the short-term, longer-term changes to vegetation structure, demography and species composition are likely, with a range of subsequent effects on ecosystem function. Resprouting species are likely to be most resilient to changing fire regimes. However, even these species are susceptible if exposed to repeated short-interval fire in combination with other stressors. Post-fire recruitment is highly vulnerable to increased fire frequency, particularly as climatic limitations on propagule availability intensify. Prediction of community responses to fire under climate change will be greatly improved by addressing knowledge gaps on how overlapping disturbances and climate change-induced shifts in fire regime affect post-fire resprouting, recruitment, growth rates, and species-level adaptation capacity.}, }
@article {pmid34451785, year = {2021}, author = {Permann, C and Herburger, K and Felhofer, M and Gierlinger, N and Lewis, LA and Holzinger, A}, title = {Induction of Conjugation and Zygospore Cell Wall Characteristics in the Alpine Spirogyra mirabilis (Zygnematophyceae, Charophyta): Advantage under Climate Change Scenarios?.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {34451785}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {Y-728-B16//Austrian Science Fund/ ; Y 728/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; 00023089//Villum Fonden/ ; P 34181/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; P34181-B//Austrian Science Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Extreme environments, such as alpine habitats at high elevation, are increasingly exposed to man-made climate change. Zygnematophyceae thriving in these regions possess a special means of sexual reproduction, termed conjugation, leading to the formation of resistant zygospores. A field sample of Spirogyra with numerous conjugating stages was isolated and characterized by molecular phylogeny. We successfully induced sexual reproduction under laboratory conditions by a transfer to artificial pond water and increasing the light intensity to 184 µmol photons m[-2] s[-1]. This, however was only possible in early spring, suggesting that the isolated cultures had an internal rhythm. The reproductive morphology was characterized by light- and transmission electron microscopy, and the latter allowed the detection of distinctly oriented microfibrils in the exo- and endospore, and an electron-dense mesospore. Glycan microarray profiling showed that Spirogyra cell walls are rich in major pectic and hemicellulosic polysaccharides, and immuno-fluorescence allowed the detection of arabinogalactan proteins (AGPs) and xyloglucan in the zygospore cell walls. Confocal RAMAN spectroscopy detected complex aromatic compounds, similar in their spectral signature to that of Lycopodium spores. These data support the idea that sexual reproduction in Zygnematophyceae, the sister lineage to land plants, might have played an important role in the process of terrestrialization.}, }
@article {pmid34451669, year = {2021}, author = {Khalis, H and Sadiki, A and Jawhari, F and Mesrar, H and Azab, E and Gobouri, AA and Adnan, M and Bourhia, M}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation Cover in the Oued Lahdar Watershed. Northeastern Morocco.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {34451669}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Episodes of drought that Morocco experienced in the years 1984-1986, 1993-1995, and 1997-2000 had repercussions that were felt many years later and continue to pose serious problems for environmentalists, as some of the affected lands have become practically deserted. These problems acted on the socio-economic conditions and created severe constraints for the development of the country. This work was conducted to study and identify changes that occurred in vegetation cover in the Oued Lahdar watershed (Rif, Morocco) between 1984 and 2017 using Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Landsat TM 5, and Landsat OLI 8. The LST had significantly increased overall from 1984 to 2017, where it moved from a mean value of 29.4 °C in 1984 to 40.4 °C in 2007 and then reduced slightly to 37.9 °C in 2017. The vegetation cover index for the study area indicates that in 1984, fully vegetated areas represented 94.3% before deteriorating to 35.4% in 2007 and recovering in 2017 to 54.3%. While bare soil, which previously constituted 5.7%, reached a very high value of 64.6% in 2007 and then decreased to 47.7%. This study contributes towards society as it provides interesting data about the consequences of climate change in the area studied as well as potential protective strategies to protect vegetation cover.}, }
@article {pmid34451649, year = {2021}, author = {Hong, SH and Lee, YH and Lee, G and Lee, DH and Adhikari, P}, title = {Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Northward Range Expansion of Invasive Weeds in South Korea.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {34451649}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2018002270002//Ministry of Environment, Republic of Korea/ ; }, abstract = {Predicting the distribution of invasive weeds under climate change is important for the early identification of areas that are susceptible to invasion and for the adoption of the best preventive measures. Here, we predicted the habitat suitability of 16 invasive weeds in response to climate change and land cover changes in South Korea using a maximum entropy modeling approach. Based on the predictions of the model, climate change is likely to increase habitat suitability. Currently, the area of moderately suitable and highly suitable habitats is estimated to be 8877.46 km[2], and 990.29 km[2], respectively, and these areas are expected to increase up to 496.52% by 2050 and 1439.65% by 2070 under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 scenario across the country. Although habitat suitability was estimated to be highest in the southern regions (<36° latitude), the central and northern regions are also predicted to have substantial increases in suitable habitat areas. Our study revealed that climate change would exacerbate the threat of northward weed invasions by shifting the climatic barriers of invasive weeds from the southern region. Thus, it is essential to initiate control and management strategies in the southern region to prevent further invasions into new areas.}, }
@article {pmid34446799, year = {2021}, author = {Hlásny, T and Mokroš, M and Dobor, L and Merganičová, K and Lukac, M}, title = {Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {17242}, pmid = {34446799}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, although projected changes show remarkable geographical and temporal variability. Understanding this variability allows for the identification of regions where the present-day conservation objectives may be at risk or where opportunities for biodiversity conservation emerge. We use a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models to identify areas with significantly high and low climate stability persistent throughout the twenty-first century in Europe. We then confront our predictions with the land coverage of three prominent biodiversity conservation initiatives at two scales. The continental-scale assessment shows that areas with the least stable future climate in Europe are likely to occur at low and high latitudes, with the Iberian Peninsula and the Boreal zones identified as prominent areas of low climatic stability. A follow-up regional scale investigation shows that robust climatic refugia exist even within the highly exposed southern and northern macro-regions. About 23-31% of assessed biodiversity conservation sites in Europe coincide with areas of high future climate stability, we contend that these sites should be prioritised in the formulation of future conservation priorities as the stability of future climate is one of the key factors determining their conservation prospects. Although such focus on climate refugia cannot halt the ongoing biodiversity loss, along with measures such as resilience-based stewardship, it may improve the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34441646, year = {2021}, author = {Uyeh, DD and Asem-Hiablie, S and Park, T and Kim, K and Mikhaylov, A and Woo, S and Ha, Y}, title = {Could Japonica Rice Be an Alternative Variety for Increased Global Food Security and Climate Change Mitigation?.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {34441646}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {716001-7//Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, korea/ ; }, abstract = {The growing importance of rice globally over the past three decades is evident in its strategic place in many countries' food security planning policies. Still, its cultivation emits substantial greenhouse gases (GHGs). The Indica and Japonica sub-species of Oryza sativa L. are mainly grown, with Indica holding the largest market share. The awareness, economics, and acceptability of Japonica rice in a food-insecure Indica rice-consuming population were surveyed. The impact of parboiling on Japonica rice was studied and the factors which most impacted stickiness were investigated through sensory and statistical analyses. A comparison of the growing climate and greenhouse gas emissions of Japonica and Indica rice was carried out by reviewing previous studies. Survey results indicated that non-adhesiveness and pleasant aroma were the most preferred properties. Parboiling treatment altered Japonica rice's physical and chemical properties, introducing gelatinization of starch and reducing adhesiveness while retaining micronutrient concentrations. Regions with high food insecurity and high consumption of Indica rice were found to have suitable climatic conditions for growing Japonica rice. Adopting the higher-yielding, nutritious Japonica rice whose cultivation emits less GHG in these regions could help strengthen food security while reducing GHGs in global rice cultivation.}, }
@article {pmid34440013, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, H and Chen, Y and Zhang, L and Baskin, JM and Baskin, CC and Zhang, L and Liu, Y and Zhang, D and Zhang, Y}, title = {Is the Life History Flexibility of Cold Desert Annuals Broad Enough to Cope with Predicted Climate Change? The Case of Erodium oxyrhinchum in Central Asia.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {34440013}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {31971428, U2003214//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2018477//Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; Y933041//Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; LHL//High-level Talents Training Program of Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography/ ; }, abstract = {Interannual seasonal variability in precipitation may strongly affect the life history and growth of desert annual plants. We compared the effects of dry and wet springs and dry and wet autumns on growth and F2 seed dormancy of plants from spring (SG)- and autumn (AG)-germinated seeds of the cold desert annual Erodium oxyrhinchum. Vegetative and reproductive growth and F2 seed dormancy and germination were monitored from September 2016 to November 2020 in the sandy Gurbantunggut Desert in NW China in Central Asia. Dry autumns decreased the density of AG plants, and dry springs decreased the density of SG plants and growth of SG and AG plants. In dry springs, SG plants were more sensitive to precipitation than AG plants, while in wet springs SG and AG plants had similar responses to precipitation. During growth in both dry and wet springs, most morphological characters of SG and AG plants initially increased rapidly in size/number and then plateaued or decreased, except for SG plants in dry springs. In dry springs, most morphological characters of AG plants were larger or more numerous than those of SG plants, and they were larger/more numerous for SG plants in wet than in dry springs. The percentage biomass allocated to reproduction in SG plants was slightly higher in a wet than in a dry spring. A much higher proportion of dormant seeds was produced by AG plants in a wet spring than in a dry spring. Projected changes in precipitation due to climate change in NW China are not likely to have much of an effect on the biology of this common desert annual plant.}, }
@article {pmid34438859, year = {2021}, author = {Morgado, F and Santos, RMAL and Sampaio, D and de Lacerda, LD and Soares, AMVM and Vieira, HC and Abreu, S}, title = {Chronological Trends and Mercury Bioaccumulation in an Aquatic Semiarid Ecosystem under a Global Climate Change Scenario in the Northeastern Coast of Brazil.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {34438859}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Due to global warming, in the northeastern semiarid coastal regions of Brazil, regional and global drivers are responsible for decreasing continental runoff and increasing estuarine water residence time, which promotes a greater mobilization of bioavailable mercury (Hg) and allows increasing fluxes and/or bioavailability of this toxic trace element and an acceleration of biogeochemical transformation of Hg. In this work, an application of dendrochemistry analysis (annular tree rings analysis) was developed for the reconstruction of the historical pattern of mercury contamination in a contaminated area, quantifying chronological Hg contamination trends in a tropical semiarid ecosystem (Ceará River Estuary, northeastern coast of Brazil) through registration of mercury concentration on growth rings in specimens of Rhizophora mangle L. and using the assessment in sediments as a support for the comparison of profiles of contamination. The comparison with sediments from the same place lends credibility to this type of analysis, as well as the relationship to the historical profile of contamination in the region, when compared with local data about industries and ecological situation of sampling sites. In order to evaluate the consequences of the described increase in Hg bioavailability and bioaccumulation in aquatic biota, and to assess the biological significance of Hg concentrations in sediments to fish and wildlife, muscle and liver from a bioindicator fish species, S. testudineus, were also analyzed. The results of this work reinforce the indicators previously described in the semiarid NE region of Brazil, which showed that global climate change and some anthropogenic factors are key drivers of Hg exposure and biomagnification for wildlife and humans. Considering the Hg concentration present in the top layers of sediment (~20 cm around 15 to 20 years) with the outer layers in the tree ring cores and in the sediment's cores from Pacoti estuary and the Ceará estuary, overall the data indicate an increase in mercury in recent years in the Hg surface sediments, especially associated with the fine sediment fraction, mainly due to the increased capacity of small particles to adsorb Hg. There was revealed a positive and significant correlation (p < 0.05) between Hg trends in sediments and Hg trends in annular tree rings. This shared Hg pattern reflects local environmental conditions. The Hg concentration values in S. testudineus from both study areas are not restrictive to human consumption, being below the legislated European limit for Hg in foodstuffs. The results from S. testudineus muscles analysis suggest a significant and linear increase in Hg burden with increasing fish length, indicating that the specimens are accumulating Hg as they grow. The results from both rivers show an increase in BSAF with fish growth. The [Hg] liver/[Hg] muscles ratio >1, which indicates that the S. testudineus from both study areas are experiencing an increase in Hg bioavailability. Possible climate-induced shifts in these aquatic systems processes are inducing a greater mobilization of bioavailable Hg, which could allow an acceleration of the biogeochemical transformation of Hg.}, }
@article {pmid34438643, year = {2021}, author = {Kim, HW and Adhikari, P and Chang, MH and Seo, C}, title = {Potential Distribution of Amphibians with Different Habitat Characteristics in Response to Climate Change in South Korea.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {34438643}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {Amphibian species are highly vulnerable to climate change with significant species decline and extinction predicted worldwide. However, there are very limited studies on amphibians in South Korea. Here, we assessed the potential impacts of climate change on different habitat groups (wetland amphibians, Group 1; migrating amphibians, Group 2; and forest-dwelling amphibians, Group 3) under future climate change and land cover change in South Korea using a maximum entropy modelling approach. Our study revealed that all amphibians would suffer substantial loss of suitable habitats in the future, except Lithobates catesbeianus, Kaloula borealis, and Karsenia koreana. Similarly, species richness for Groups 2 and 3 will decline by 2030, 2050, and 2080. Currently, amphibian species are widely distributed across the country; however, in future, suitable habitats for amphibians would be concentrated along the Baekdudaegan Mountain Range and the southeastern region. Among the three groups, Group 3 amphibians are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change; therefore, immediate conservation action is needed to protect them. We expect this study could provide crucial baseline information required for the government to design climate change mitigation strategies for indigenous amphibians.}, }
@article {pmid34436967, year = {2021}, author = {David, AA}, title = {Climate Change and Shell-Boring Polychaetes (Annelida: Spionidae): Current State of Knowledge and the Need for More Experimental Research.}, journal = {The Biological bulletin}, volume = {241}, number = {1}, pages = {4-15}, doi = {10.1086/714989}, pmid = {34436967}, issn = {1939-8697}, mesh = {Animals ; *Annelida ; *Bivalvia ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Polychaeta ; }, abstract = {AbstractAnthropogenic climate change is considered to be one of the greatest threats facing marine biodiversity. The vast majority of experimental work investigating the effects of climate change stressors on marine organisms has focused on calcifying organisms, such as corals and molluscs, where cross-generational phenotypic changes can be easily quantified. Bivalves in particular have been the subject of numerous climate change studies, in part because of their economic value in the aquaculture industry and their important roles as ecosystem engineers. However, there has been little to no work investigating the effects of these stressors on the symbionts associated with these bivalves, specifically, their shell-boring polychaete parasites. This is important to understand because climate change may shift the synergistic relationship between parasite and host based on the individual responses of each. If such a shift favors proliferation of the polychaete, it may very well facilitate extinction of host bivalve populations. In this review I will (i) provide an overview of research completed thus far on the effects of climate change stressors on shell-boring polychaetes, (ii) discuss the technical challenges of studying these parasites in the laboratory, and (iii) propose a standardized framework for carrying out future in vitro and in vivo climate change experiments on shell-boring polychaetes.}, }
@article {pmid34436966, year = {2021}, author = {Kelly, MW and Griffiths, JS}, title = {Selection Experiments in the Sea: What Can Experimental Evolution Tell Us About How Marine Life Will Respond to Climate Change?.}, journal = {The Biological bulletin}, volume = {241}, number = {1}, pages = {30-42}, doi = {10.1086/715109}, pmid = {34436966}, issn = {1939-8697}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Phenotype ; Phytoplankton ; }, abstract = {AbstractRapid evolution may provide a buffer against extinction risk for some species threatened by climate change; however, the capacity to evolve rapidly enough to keep pace with changing environments is unknown for most taxa. The ecosystem-level consequences of climate adaptation are likely to be the largest in marine ecosystems, where short-lived phytoplankton with large effective population sizes make up the bulk of primary production. However, there are substantial challenges to predicting climate-driven evolution in marine systems, including multiple simultaneous axes of change and considerable heterogeneity in rates of change, as well as the biphasic life cycles of many marine metazoans, which expose different life stages to disparate sources of selection. A critical tool for addressing these challenges is experimental evolution, where populations of organisms are directly exposed to controlled sources of selection to test evolutionary responses. We review the use of experimental evolution to test the capacity to adapt to climate change stressors in marine species. The application of experimental evolution in this context has grown dramatically in the past decade, shedding light on the capacity for evolution, associated trade-offs, and the genetic architecture of stress-tolerance traits. Our goal is to highlight the utility of this approach for investigating potential responses to climate change and point a way forward for future studies.}, }
@article {pmid34434186, year = {2021}, author = {Yun, MS and Sun, J and Lovejoy, C and Lee, SH}, title = {Editorial: Microbial Response to a Rapidly Changing Marine Environment: Global Warming and Ocean Acidification.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {731732}, pmid = {34434186}, issn = {1664-302X}, }
@article {pmid34433951, year = {2021}, author = {}, title = {Control methane to slow global warming - fast.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {596}, number = {7873}, pages = {461}, pmid = {34433951}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Livestock ; Meat ; Methane/*analysis ; Oil and Gas Industry/*trends ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid34433554, year = {2021}, author = {Su, F and Fu, D and Yan, F and Xiao, H and Pan, T and Xiao, Y and Kang, L and Zhou, C and Meadows, M and Lyne, V and Wilson, JP and Zhao, N and Yang, X and Liu, G}, title = {Rapid greening response of China's 2020 spring vegetation to COVID-19 restrictions: Implications for climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {7}, number = {35}, pages = {}, pmid = {34433554}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The 2019 novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) negatively affected global public health and socioeconomic development. Lockdowns and travel restrictions to contain COVID-19 resulted in reduced human activity and decreased anthropogenic emissions. However, the secondary effects of these restrictions on the biophysical environment are uncertain. Using remotely sensed big data, we investigated how lockdowns and traffic restrictions affected China's spring vegetation in 2020. Our analyses show that travel decreased by 58% in the first 18 days following implementation of the restrictions across China. Subsequently, atmospheric optical clarity increased and radiation levels on the vegetation canopy were augmented. Furthermore, the spring of 2020 arrived 8.4 days earlier and vegetation 17.45% greener compared to 2015-2019. Reduced human activity resulting from COVID-19 restrictions contributed to a brighter, earlier, and greener 2020 spring season in China. This study shows that short-term changes in human activity can have a relatively rapid ecological impact at the regional scale.}, }
@article {pmid34432714, year = {2022}, author = {Sullivan, JK and Lowe, KE and Gordon, IO and Colbert, CY and Salas, RN and Bernstein, A and Utech, J and Natowicz, MR and Mehta, N and Isaacson, JH}, title = {Climate Change and Medical Education: An Integrative Model.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {97}, number = {2}, pages = {188-192}, pmid = {34432714}, issn = {1938-808X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Curriculum ; Education, Medical/*organization &amp; administration ; Models, Educational ; Schools, Medical/organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {Medical schools face a challenge when trying to include new topics, such as climate change and health (CCH), in their curricula because of competing demands from more traditional biomedical content. At the same time, an understanding of CCH topics is crucial for physicians as they have clear implications for clinical practice and health care delivery. Although some medical schools have begun to incorporate CCH into curricula, the inclusion usually lacks a comprehensive framework for content and implementation. The authors propose a model for integrating CCH into medical school curricula using a practical, multistakeholder approach designed to mitigate competition for time with existing content by weaving meaningful CCH examples into current curricular activities. After the authors identified stakeholders to include in their curricular development working group, this working group determined the goals and desired outcomes of the curriculum; aligned those outcomes with the school's framework of educational objectives, competencies, and milestones; and strove to integrate CCH goals into as many existing curricular settings as possible. This article includes an illustration of the proposed model for one of the curricular goals (understanding the impacts of climate change on communities), with examples from the CCH curriculum integration that began in the fall of 2020 at the Cleveland Clinic Lerner College of Medicine of Case Western Reserve University. The authors have found that this approach does minimize competition for time with existing content and allows mapping of content to existing curricular competencies and milestones, while encouraging a broad understanding of CCH in the context of individual patients, populations, and communities. This model for curricular integration can be applied to other topics such as social determinants of health, health equity, disability studies, and structural racism.}, }
@article {pmid34430087, year = {2021}, author = {Amiri, M and Peinkhofer, C and Othman, MH and De Vecchi, T and Nersesjan, V and Kondziella, D}, title = {Global warming and neurological practice: systematic review.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e11941}, pmid = {34430087}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change, including global warming, will cause poorer global health and rising numbers of environmental refugees. As neurological disorders account for a major share of morbidity and mortality worldwide, global warming is also destined to alter neurological practice; however, to what extent and by which mechanisms is unknown. We aimed to collect information about the effects of ambient temperatures and human migration on the epidemiology and clinical manifestations of neurological disorders.<br><br>METHODS: We searched PubMed and Scopus from 01/2000 to 12/2020 for human studies addressing the influence of ambient temperatures and human migration on Alzheimer's and non-Alzheimer's dementia, epilepsy, headache/migraine, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease, stroke, and tick-borne encephalitis (a model disease for neuroinfections). The protocol was pre-registered with PROSPERO (2020 CRD42020147543).<br><br>RESULTS: Ninety-three studies met inclusion criteria, 84 of which reported on ambient temperatures and nine on migration. Overall, most temperature studies suggested a relationship between increasing temperatures and higher mortality and/or morbidity, whereas results were more ambiguous for migration studies. However, we were unable to identify a single adequately designed study addressing how global warming and human migration will change neurological practice. Still, extracted data indicated multiple ways by which these aspects might alter neurological morbidity and mortality soon.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Significant heterogeneity exists across studies with respect to methodology, outcome measures, confounders and study design, including lack of data from low-income countries, but the evidence so far suggests that climate change will affect the practice of all major neurological disorders in the near future. Adequately designed studies to address this issue are urgently needed, requiring concerted efforts from the entire neurological community.}, }
@article {pmid34429491, year = {2021}, author = {Shrestha, S and Bae, DH and Hok, P and Ghimire, S and Pokhrel, Y}, title = {Future hydrology and hydrological extremes under climate change in Asian river basins.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {17089}, pmid = {34429491}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The diverse impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the spatiotemporal distribution of global freshwater are generally addressed through global scale studies, which suffer from uncertainties arising from coarse spatial resolution. Multi-catchment, regional studies provide fine-grained details of these impacts but remain less explored. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on the hydrology of 19 river basins from different geographical and climatic conditions in South and Southeast Asia. We find that these two regions will get warmer (1.5 to 7.8 °C) and wetter (- 3.4 to 46.2%) with the expected increment in river flow (- 18.5 to 109%) at the end of the twenty-first century under climate change. An increase in seasonal hydro-climatic extremes in South Asia and the rising intensity of hydro-climatic extremes during only one season in Southeast Asia illustrates high spatiotemporal variability in the impact of climate change and augments the importance of similar studies on a larger scale for broader understanding.}, }
@article {pmid34429405, year = {2021}, author = {Dudney, J and Willing, CE and Das, AJ and Latimer, AM and Nesmith, JCB and Battles, JJ}, title = {Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {5102}, pmid = {34429405}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Basidiomycota ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Forests ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; *Plant Diseases/microbiology ; Plants ; Prevalence ; *Ribes ; Water ; }, abstract = {Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4-6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8-7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0-1392.9) km[2] into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient-likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34428656, year = {2021}, author = {Zhou, Z and Cartwright, I}, title = {Using geochemistry to identify and quantify the sources, distribution, and fluxes of baseflow to an intermittent river impacted by climate change: The upper Wimmera River, southeast Australia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {801}, number = {}, pages = {149725}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149725}, pmid = {34428656}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Groundwater ; Rivers ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Documenting the distribution, sources and fluxes of baseflow discharge into rivers is important for their management and for maintaining ecosystem health. This study uses major ion geochemistry, [222]Rn, and [3]H to differentiate between the input of low-salinity near-river waters (bank storage and return waters and/or interflow) and regional groundwater in an intermittent river from southeast Australia that is undergoing long-term changes in flow resulting from climate change. Baseflow discharge calculated by [222]Rn mass balance was up to 1.3 m[3]/m/day in the high flow period in July 2019 and up to 0.1 m[3]/m/day at low flow conditions in November 2019. The distribution of [222]Rn activities implies higher baseflow fluxes in the upper and middle reaches that have relatively steep topography and higher hydraulic gradients. The lower reaches received less baseflow due to subdued topography and fine-grained sediments. The observation that Cl concentrations did not increase uniformly downstream, however, implies that much of the baseflow may comprise bank return flow or interflow. This conclusion is also consistent with water mass balance calculations and the observation that [3]H activities (1.85-3.00 TU) in the river were higher than in the groundwater (<0.45 TU). Intermittent streams are likely to be less well connected to regional groundwater, and thus near-river water stores will be more important in sustaining streamflow during dry periods than regional groundwater. These rivers and their ecosystems may be less susceptible to the impacts of groundwater extraction and the near-river waters will provide a buffer zone from potentially contaminated regional groundwater. However, these near river stores are vulnerable to short-term climate variability, and changes to flow regimes resulting from climate change may significantly impact water supplies and ecosystem health.}, }
@article {pmid34428654, year = {2021}, author = {Yang, Z and Zhang, Y and Xie, Z and Wang, J and Li, Z and Li, Y and Du, J and Sun, L}, title = {Potential influence of rapid climate change on elemental geochemistry distributions in lacustrine sediments-A case study at a high Arctic site in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {801}, number = {}, pages = {149784}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149784}, pmid = {34428654}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Geologic Sediments ; *Metals, Heavy/analysis ; Svalbard ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Metal contamination has become an increasingly severe environmental issue due to intense anthropogenic activities in recent decades. Many studies have reported a rapidly increasing trend of heavy metal contents in sedimentary records. In this study, two lacustrine sediment cores (LDL and YL) far away from scientific research stations were collected in Ny-Ålesund and analyzed for the vertical distributions of 17 elemental concentrations (Cu, Zn, Pb, Co, Ni, Cr, Sr, Ba, Mn, P, Ti, K2O, Na2O, CaO, MgO, Fe2O3, Al2O3), CIA and TOC contents. The results indicated that only the proxies Pb, P, CaO, TOC, and CIA showed an increasing trend in the upper 7 cm section of the sediment cores, while most of the elements' concentrations decreased towards the surface. The rapid increase of TOC contents is likely related to the climate warming over the past 200 years, which promotes the prosperity of vegetation and thus leads to more input of organic matter into the lakes. Moreover, a large number of seabirds live around the sampling position and the seabird guano contains high concentrations of P, which could be regarded as an important nutrient source for vegetation. Additionally, the rapid climate warming could accelerate the chemical weathering rates, and thus lead to increased CaO contents in the sediment profiles according to its geological background. Therefore, the concentrations of other elements are very likely diluted by the high contents of organic matter and CaO in the upper part of the sediment cores. It is noteworthy that the rapidly increasing trend of Pb contents are related to the gas-oil powered generators in Ny-Ålesund and long-range atmospheric transport from Europe. This study highlighted the nonnegligible influence of climate warming on the inorganic elemental geochemistry distributions in remote lakes.}, }
@article {pmid34428296, year = {2021}, author = {Godinho, MA and Murthy, S and Ali Mohammed, C}, title = {Fostering global health policy leadership through World Health Assembly simulations: debating climate change and health.}, journal = {Health promotion international}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {731-740}, doi = {10.1093/heapro/daaa087}, pmid = {34428296}, issn = {1460-2245}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Leadership ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {The South Asian region is predicted to be among the most severely affected by the health impacts of climate change and warrants regional health policy leadership to tackle the same. Model World Health Organization (WHO) simulations offer the academic opportunity to build this leadership. This study describes the conceptualization and conduct of the 'Manipal Model World Health Organization' 2018 debate simulation, where a multi-professional group of students at an Indian university deliberated approaches to address the regional health impacts of climate change in South Asia. We contextualized the Model WHO debate model for a multi-professional classroom. Multi-sectoral stakeholders were engaged to draw participants from health and non-health disciplines. Participants were trained in health research literacy, policy politics, bloc politics, writing and public speaking for Model WHO. Mock sessions provided training in navigating parliamentary procedures. The debate event consisted of 22 participants and a four-member panel from diverse academic disciplines who independently assessed the deliberations. All delegations demonstrated competent written and verbal contributions. Content analysis of resolutions reaffirmed international agreements and addressed the Climate Change Health Risk Framework, and objectives of the WHO Secretariat Action Plan. Besides presenting a stratified typology of academic health policy debate simulations in global, regional, and subnational contexts, we also propose a 'theory of change', illustrating how academic policy discourse platforms can nurture critical thinking, research/policy literacy and leadership skills. Such initiatives help build the health policy leadership required for addressing global health challenges such as climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34426328, year = {2021}, author = {Kiedrzyńska, E and Belka, K and Jarosiewicz, P and Kiedrzyński, M and Zalewski, M}, title = {The enhancement of valley water retentiveness in climate change conditions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {799}, number = {}, pages = {149427}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149427}, pmid = {34426328}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Hydrology ; Rivers ; Water ; }, abstract = {River system retentiveness must be enhanced to increase multidimensional environmental sustainability and thus ameliorate the effects of climate change and the occurrence of extreme hydrological events. The aim of the article is to demonstrate how ecohydrological Nature-Based Solutions can be combined with conventional infrastructure to improve WBSRCE benefits (Water, Biodiversity, ecosystem Services, Resilience, Culture, Education) by taking a holistic approach to multifunctional reservoir design. The paper proposes a new form of lateral reservoir, which is built without disturbing the meandering river and is supplied with good quality water through a monitoring and regulatory system; its design is based on thorough analysis of hydrological pulses and suspended matter and nutrients fluxes. The regulatory system also includes an innovative Sequential Sedimentation and Biofiltration System. Lateral reservoirs increase water retentiveness in the river valley by lifting ground water level and restoring surrounding wetlands, thus enhancing biodiversity, ecosystem services for society and the resilience of the river system to climate change. An integrative understanding of the interplay between hydrology and biocenosis can be used to enhance river system sustainability potential (WBSR) and harmonise societal needs with biosphere sustainability through culture and education (CE).}, }
@article {pmid34422141, year = {2021}, author = {Schlingmann, A and Graham, S and Benyei, P and Corbera, E and Sanesteban, IM and Marelle, A and Soleymani-Fard, R and Reyes-García, V}, title = {Global patterns of adaptation to climate change by Indigenous Peoples and local communities. A systematic review.}, journal = {Current opinion in environmental sustainability}, volume = {51}, number = {}, pages = {55-64}, pmid = {34422141}, issn = {1877-3435}, support = {771056/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Indigenous Peoples and local communities have implemented myriad responses to deal with and mitigate climate change impacts. However, little effort has been invested in compiling, aggregating, and systematizing such responses to assess global patterns in local adaptation. Drawing on a systematic review of 119 peer-reviewed publications with 1851 reported local responses to climate change impacts, we show that Indigenous Peoples and local communities across the world apply a diverse portfolio of activities to address climate change impacts. While many responses involve changes to natural resource based livelihoods, about one-third of responses involve other activities (e.g. networking, off-farm work). Globally, local responses to climate change impacts are more likely to be shaped by people's livelihood than by the climate zone where they live.}, }
@article {pmid34421709, year = {2021}, author = {Ottavi, S and Roussel, S and Syssau, A}, title = {The French Affective Images of Climate Change (FAICC): A Dataset With Relevance and Affective Ratings.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {650650}, pmid = {34421709}, issn = {1664-1078}, }
@article {pmid34421631, year = {2021}, author = {Dhimal, M and Bhandari, D and Dhimal, ML and Kafle, N and Pyakurel, P and Mahotra, N and Akhtar, S and Ismail, T and Dhiman, RC and Groneberg, DA and Shrestha, UB and Müller, R}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Health and Well-Being of People in Hindu Kush Himalayan Region: A Narrative Review.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {651189}, pmid = {34421631}, issn = {1664-042X}, abstract = {Climate change and variability affect virtually everyone and every region of the world but the effects are nowhere more prominent than in mountain regions and people living therein. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is a vast expanse encompassing 18% of the world's mountainous area. Sprawling over 4.3 million km[2], the HKH region occupies areas of eight countries namely Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar, and Pakistan. The HKH region is warming at a rate higher than the global average and precipitation has also increased significantly over the last 6 decades along with increased frequency and intensity of some extreme events. Changes in temperature and precipitation have affected and will like to affect the climate-dependent sectors such as hydrology, agriculture, biodiversity, and human health. This paper aims to document how climate change has impacted and will impact, health and well-being of the people in the HKH region and offers adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of climate change on health and well-being of the people. In the HKH region, climate change boosts infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), malnutrition, and injuries. Hence, climate change adaptation and mitigation measures are needed urgently to safeguard vulnerable populations residing in the HKH region.}, }
@article {pmid34421331, year = {2021}, author = {Groundstroem, F and Juhola, S}, title = {Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {29}, pmid = {34421331}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Increased use of bioenergy, driven by ambitious climate and energy policies, has led to an upsurge in international bioenergy trade. Simultaneously, it is evident that every node of the bioenergy supply chain, from cultivation of energy crops to production of electricity and heat, is vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, climate change assessments of bioenergy supply chains neither account for the global nature of the bioenergy market, nor the complexity and dynamic interconnectivity between and within different sub-systems in which the bioenergy supply chain is embedded, thereby neglecting potential compounding and cascading impacts of climate change. In this paper, systems thinking is utilised to develop an analytical framework to address this gap, and aided by causal loop diagrams, cascading impacts of climate change are identified for a case study concerning imports of wood pellets from the United States to the European Union. The findings illustrate how the complexity and interconnectivity of the wood pellet supply system predispose the supply chain to various cascading climate change impacts stemming from environmental, social, political and economic domains, and highlight the value of using system-based analysis tools for studying such complex and dynamic systems.}, }
@article {pmid34419906, year = {2021}, author = {Ullah, H and Fordham, DA and Nagelkerken, I}, title = {Climate change negates positive CO2 effects on marine species biomass and productivity by altering the strength and direction of trophic interactions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {801}, number = {}, pages = {149624}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149624}, pmid = {34419906}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {One of the biggest challenges in more accurately forecasting the effects of climate change on future food web dynamics relates to how climate change affects multi-trophic species interactions, particularly when multiple interacting stressors are considered. Using a dynamic food web model, we investigate the individual and combined effect of ocean warming and acidification on changes in trophic interaction strengths (both direct and indirect) and the consequent effects on biomass structure of food web functional groups. To do this, we mimicked a species-rich multi-trophic-level temperate shallow-water rocky reef food web and integrated empirical data from mesocosm experiments on altered species interactions under warming and acidification, into food-web models. We show that a low number of strong temperature-driven changes in direct trophic interactions (feeding and competition) will largely determine the magnitude of biomass change (either increase or decrease) of high-order consumers, with increasing consumer biomass suppressing that of prey species. Ocean acidification, in contrast, alters a large number of weak indirect interactions (e.g. cascading effects of increased or decreased abundances of other groups), enabling a large increase in consumer and prey biomass. The positive effects of ocean acidification are driven by boosted primary productivity, with energy flowing up to higher trophic levels. We show that warming is a much stronger driver of positive as well as negative modifications of species biomass compared to ocean acidification. Warming affects a much smaller number of existing trophic interactions, though, with direct consumer-resource effects being more important than indirect effects. We conclude that the functional role of consumers in future food webs will be largely regulated by alterations in the strength of direct trophic interactions under ocean warming, with ensuing effects on the biomass structure of marine food webs.}, }
@article {pmid34418448, year = {2022}, author = {Sun, J and Ye, C and Liu, M and Wang, Y and Chen, J and Wang, S and Lu, X and Liu, G and Xu, M and Li, R and Liu, S and Zhou, H and Du, Z and Peng, F and Tsunekawa, A and Tsubo, M}, title = {Response of net reduction rate in vegetation carbon uptake to climate change across a unique gradient zone on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {203}, number = {}, pages = {111894}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.111894}, pmid = {34418448}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Anthropogenic Effects ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Temperature ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has a variety of vegetation types that range from alpine tundra to tropic evergreen forest, which play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle and is extremely vulnerable to climate change. The vegetation C uptake is crucial to the ecosystem C sequestration. Moreover, net reduction in vegetation C uptake (NRVCU) will strongly affect the C balance of terrestrial ecosystem. Until now, there is limited knowledge on the recovery process of vegetation net C uptake and the spatial-temporal patterns of NRVCU after the disturbance that caused by climate change and human activities. Here, we used the MODIS-derived net primary production to characterize the spatial-temporal patterns of NRVCU. We further explored the influence factors of the net reduction rate in vegetation C uptake (NRRVCU) and recovery processes of vegetation net C uptake across a unique gradient zone on the TP. Results showed that the total net reduction amount of vegetation C uptake gradually decreased from 2000 to 2015 on the TP (Slope = -0.002, P < 0.05). Specifically, an increasing gradient zone of multi-year average of net reduction rate in vegetation carbon uptake (MYANRRVCU) from east to west was observed. In addition, we found that the recovery of vegetation net C uptake after the disturbance caused by climate change and anthropogenic disturbance in the gradient zone were primarily dominated by precipitation and temperature. The findings revealed that the effects of climate change on MYANRRVCU and vegetation net C uptake recovery differed significantly across geographical space and vegetation types. Our results highlight that the biogeographic characteristics of the TP should be considered for combating future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34418355, year = {2021}, author = {The Lancet Public Health, }, title = {Mitigating climate change must be a priority for public health.}, journal = {The Lancet. Public health}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {e620}, doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00190-0}, pmid = {34418355}, issn = {2468-2667}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Global Health ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Public Health ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid34417972, year = {2022}, author = {Abbas, S}, title = {Climate change and major crop production: evidence from Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {5406-5414}, pmid = {34417972}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Crop Production ; Crops, Agricultural ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {Climatic changes are posing serious threats to crop production and food insecurity across the globe. This study explores the dynamic relationship between changing annual temperature and production of major crops such as wheat, rice, bajra, jowar, maize, barley, gram, sugar cane, mastered oil, and cotton in Pakistan from 2000 to 2019 through an eclectic production model. The estimated result of panel econometric analysis revealed a significant negative effect of rising temperature on selected crop production in the long run with an insignificant impact in the short run. Among other explanatory variables, the area under cultivation and fertilizer input have significant positive effects in both the long run and the short run. Improved quality seeds revealed insignificant effects and urging authorities to enhance quality research to develop climate change resilient crops. This study urges Pakistan to improve agriculture technology along with adopting other greenhouse gas mitigation, such as forestation and clean energy, and water conservation policies.}, }
@article {pmid34416565, year = {2021}, author = {Aguilar-Domínguez, M and Moo-Llanes, DA and Sánchez-Montes, S and Becker, I and Feria-Arroyo, TP and de León, AP and Romero-Salas, D}, title = {Potential distribution of Amblyomma mixtum (Koch, 1844) in climate change scenarios in the Americas.}, journal = {Ticks and tick-borne diseases}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {101812}, doi = {10.1016/j.ttbdis.2021.101812}, pmid = {34416565}, issn = {1877-9603}, mesh = {Amblyomma/*physiology ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Central America ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; North America ; South America ; }, abstract = {Amblyomma mixtum is a Neotropical generalist tick of medical and veterinary importance which is widely distributed from United States of America to Ecuador. The aim of this study was to evaluate changes in the geographic projections of the ecological niche models of A. mixtum in climate change scenarios in America. We constructed a database of published scientific publications, personal collections, personal communications, and online databases. Ecological niche modelling was performed with 15 Bioclimatic variables using kuenm in R and was projected to three time periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Current and 2050) for America. Our model indicated a wide distribution for A. mixtum, with higher probability of occurrence along the Gulf of Mexico and occurring in a lesser proportion in the Pacific states, Central America, and the northern part of South America. The areas of new invasion are located mainly on the border of Mexico with Guatemala and Belize, some regions of Central America and Colombia. We conclude that the ecological niche modelling are effective tools to infer the potential distribution of A. mixtum in America, in addition to helping to propose future measures of epidemiological control and surveillance in the new potential areas of invasion.}, }
@article {pmid34415498, year = {2021}, author = {Guyer, A and van Doan, C and Maurer, C and Machado, RAR and Mateo, P and Steinauer, K and Kesner, L and Hoch, G and Kahmen, A and Erb, M and Robert, CAM}, title = {Climate Change Modulates Multitrophic Interactions Between Maize, A Root Herbivore, and Its Enemies.}, journal = {Journal of chemical ecology}, volume = {47}, number = {10-11}, pages = {889-906}, pmid = {34415498}, issn = {1573-1561}, support = {189071//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Food Chain ; Larva/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Strongyloidea/*physiology ; Zea mays/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {How climate change will modify belowground tritrophic interactions is poorly understood, despite their importance for agricultural productivity. Here, we manipulated the three major abiotic factors associated with climate change (atmospheric CO2, temperature, and soil moisture) and investigated their individual and joint effects on the interaction between maize, the banded cucumber beetle (Diabrotica balteata), and the entomopathogenic nematode (EPN) Heterorhabditis bacteriophora. Changes in individual abiotic parameters had a strong influence on plant biomass, leaf wilting, sugar concentrations, protein levels, and benzoxazinoid contents. Yet, when combined to simulate a predicted climate scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, RCP 8.5), their effects mostly counter-balanced each other. Only the sharp negative impact of drought on leaf wilting was not fully compensated. In both current and predicted scenarios, root damage resulted in increased leaf wilting, reduced root biomass, and reconfigured the plant sugar metabolism. Single climatic variables modulated the herbivore performance and survival in an additive manner, although slight interactions were also observed. Increased temperature and CO2 levels both enhanced the performance of the insect, but elevated temperature also decreased its survival. Elevated temperatures and CO2 further directly impeded the EPN infectivity potential, while lower moisture levels improved it through plant- and/or herbivore-mediated changes. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, temperature and CO2 showed interactive effects on EPN infectivity, which was overall decreased by 40%. We conclude that root pest problems may worsen with climate change due to increased herbivore performance and reduced top-down control by biological control agents.}, }
@article {pmid34413900, year = {2020}, author = {Woo, SHL and Liu, JC and Yue, X and Mickley, LJ and Bell, ML}, title = {Air pollution from wildfires and human health vulnerability in Alaskan communities under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {34413900}, issn = {1748-9326}, support = {R01 MD012769/MD/NIMHD NIH HHS/United States ; R21 ES021427/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Alaskan wildfires are becoming more frequent and severe, but very little is known regarding exposure to wildfire smoke, a risk factor for respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses. We estimated long-term, present-day and future exposure to wildfire-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) across Alaska for the general population and subpopulations to assess vulnerability using observed data for the present day (1997-2010), modelled estimates for the present day (1997-2001), and modelled estimates for the future (2047-2051). First, we assessed wildfire-PM2.5 exposure by estimating monthly-average wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels across 1997-2010 for 158 Alaskan census tracts, using atmospheric transport modelling based on observed area-burned data. Second, we estimated changes in future (2047-2051) wildfire-PM2.5 exposure compared to the present-day (1997-2001) by estimating the monthly-average wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels for 29 boroughs/census areas (county-equivalent areas), under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario from an ensemble of 13 climate models. Subpopulation risks for present and future exposure levels were estimated by summing area-weighted exposure levels utilizing the 2000 Census and State of Alaska's population projections. We assessed vulnerability by several subpopulation characteristics (e.g. race/ethnicity, urbanicity). Wildfire-PM2.5 exposure levels during 1997-2010 were highest in interior Alaska during July. Among subpopulations, average summer (June-August) exposure levels for urban dwellers and African-American/Blacks were highest at 9.1 μg m[-3] and 10 μg m[-3], respectively. Estimated wildfire-PM2.5 varied by Native American tribe, ranging from average summer levels of 2.4 μg m[-3] to 13 μg m[-3] for Tlingit-Haida and Alaskan Athabascan tribes, respectively. Estimates indicate that by the mid-21st century, under climate change, almost all of Alaska could be exposed to increases of 100% or more in levels of wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels. Exposure to wildfire-PM2.5 likely presents a substantial public health burden in the present day for Alaska communities, with different impacts by subpopulation. Under climate change, wildfire smoke could pose an even greater public health risks for most Alaskans.}, }
@article {pmid34412823, year = {2021}, author = {McDougle, L and , }, title = {The Journey to Health Parity: From Coronavirus to Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of the National Medical Association}, volume = {113}, number = {4}, pages = {366-367}, doi = {10.1016/j.jnma.2021.07.002}, pmid = {34412823}, issn = {1943-4693}, mesh = {COVID-19/*epidemiology/ethnology ; *Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Societies, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid34411797, year = {2021}, author = {Vijayan, A and Maina, JM and Lawson, R and Chang, HC and Beaumont, LJ and Davies, PJ}, title = {Land use planning to support climate change adaptation in threatened plant communities.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {298}, number = {}, pages = {113533}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113533}, pmid = {34411797}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; }, abstract = {Among the many causes of habitat loss, urbanization coupled with climate change has produced some of the greatest local extinction rates and has led to the loss of many native species. Managing native vegetation in a rapidly expanding urban setting requires land management strategies that are cognizant of these impacts and how species and communities may adapt to a future climate. Here, we demonstrate how identifying climate refugia for threatened vegetation communities in an urban matrix can be used to support management decisions by local government authorities under the dual pressures of urban expansion and climate change. This research was focused on a local government area in New South Wales, Australia, that is undergoing significant residential, commercial and agricultural expansion resulting in the transition of native forest to other more intensive land-uses. Our results indicate that the key drivers of change from native vegetation to urban and agriculture classes were population density and the proximity to urban areas. We found two of the most cleared vegetation community types are physically restricted to land owned or managed by council, suggesting their long-term ecological viability is uncertain under a warming climate. We propose that land use planning decisions must recognize the compounding spatial and temporal pressures of urban development, land clearing and climate change, and how current policy responses, such as biodiversity offsetting, can respond positively to habitat shifts in order to secure the longevity of important ecological communities.}, }
@article {pmid34407333, year = {2021}, author = {Salas, RN}, title = {Environmental Racism and Climate Change - Missed Diagnoses.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {385}, number = {11}, pages = {967-969}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp2109160}, pmid = {34407333}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Asthma/ethnology/*etiology ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Missed Diagnosis ; *Racism ; *Residence Characteristics ; }, }
@article {pmid34405888, year = {2021}, author = {Fritz, M and Koch, M and Johansson, H and Emilsson, K and Hildingsson, R and Khan, J}, title = {Habitus and climate change: Exploring support and resistance to sustainable welfare and social-ecological transformations in Sweden.}, journal = {The British journal of sociology}, volume = {72}, number = {4}, pages = {874-890}, doi = {10.1111/1468-4446.12887}, pmid = {34405888}, issn = {1468-4446}, support = {//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; //Federal Ministry of Education and Research Germany/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Social Environment ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {We explore peoples' dispositions and practices with regard to social-ecological transformations based on a sustainable welfare policy strategy in Sweden. We draw on Bourdieu's concept of habitus to highlight the relations between social positions, dispositions, and position-takings. Using data from an own survey, we identify habitus types and place these in the space of social positions. We apply principal component analysis to a large set of questions about social, ecological, and climate change related topics and identify eight underlying eco-social dispositions. These are used for cluster analyses that find typical constellations of eco-social dispositions within the Swedish population: variants of eco-social habitus. We find seven habitus types and describe their social characteristics, political preferences, and practices. Finally, the seven habitus are plotted onto the map of social positions, the Bourdieusian social space, highlighting their relations-proximities, tensions, and contestations-to each other. We find evidence that political struggles around social-ecological transformations reproduce existing social structures but are also connected to new "eco-social" divisions that appear between groups in similar positions. In the conclusion we discuss the implications for social-ecological transformations based on sustainable welfare.}, }
@article {pmid34403638, year = {2021}, author = {Kocsis, &#xc1;T and Reddin, CJ and Scotese, CR and Valdes, PJ and Kiessling, W}, title = {Increase in marine provinciality over the last 250 million years governed more by climate change than plate tectonics.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {288}, number = {1957}, pages = {20211342}, pmid = {34403638}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fossils ; }, abstract = {Amidst long-term fluctuations of the abiotic environment, the degree to which life organizes into distinct biogeographic provinces (provinciality) can reveal the fundamental drivers of global biodiversity. Our understanding of present-day biogeography implies that changes in the distribution of continents across climatic zones have predictable effects on habitat distribution, dispersal barriers and the evolution of provinciality. To assess marine provinciality through the Phanerozoic, here we (a) simulate provinces based on palaeogeographic reconstructions and global climate models and (b) contrast them with empirically derived provinces that we define using network analysis of fossil occurrences. Simulated and empirical patterns match reasonably well and consistently suggest a greater than 15% increase in provinciality since the Mesozoic era. Although both factors played a role, the simulations imply that the effect of the latitudinal temperature gradient has been twice as important in determining marine provinciality as continental configuration.}, }
@article {pmid34403318, year = {2021}, author = {Duffy, MA}, title = {Why We Should Preach to the Climate Change Choir: The Importance of Science Communication That Engages People Who Already Accept Climate Change.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {198}, number = {3}, pages = {433-436}, doi = {10.1086/715153}, pmid = {34403318}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communication ; Humans ; }, abstract = {AbstractClimate change is one of the most urgent issues facing society today, and scientists have an important opportunity to teach students and other audiences about climate change. With climate communication, it can be tempting to think that the primary goal should be to get more people to accept climate change, but true climate literacy requires not just an understanding of the reality of climate change but also acting on that understanding. Here, I argue that there is an important role for communicating about climate change with people who already accept that it is occurring. Such communication can help people improve their understanding, increasing their certainty regarding climate change and its drivers, and spur them to take action. Social science research has important insights regarding how to communicate in a way that encourages people to change behaviors, including aiming to increase personal and collective efficacy and helping people figure out how to meet key needs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change communicators should seek out audiences that already accept climate change, helping those individuals deepen their understanding and energizing and empowering these people to act.}, }
@article {pmid34402002, year = {2021}, author = {Abubakar, A and Ishak, MY and Makmom, AA}, title = {Impacts of and adaptation to climate change on the oil palm in Malaysia: a systematic review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {39}, pages = {54339-54361}, pmid = {34402002}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {TETF/UNIV/JIGAWA STAT/TSAS/2019//tetfund Nigeria/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Malaysia ; }, abstract = {The interaction and the interplay of climate change with oil palm production in the Southeast Asia region are of serious concern. This particularly applies in Malaysia due to its rank as the second largest palm oil producer in the world. The anthropogenic activities and the agroecological practices in oil palm plantation, including excessive use of fertilisers, bush fire due to land clearing, and cultivation on peatland, have exacerbated the effects of climate change featuring extreme events, drought, flooding, heatwave, as well as infestation of pest and diseases. These adverse impacts on oil palm production highlight the significance of deploying effective adaptation strategies. The study aims to examine the impact of climate change on oil palm production and identify the farmers' adaptation strategies to the impacts of climate change in Malaysia. This study was conducted a comprehensive review of the articles published from 2000 to 2021 in the contexts of climate change and oil palm production in Malaysia. The review shows that climate change has a range of impacts on the oil palm production in Malaysia. As a result, several adaptation options were identified, such as breeding of hybrid varieties that are tolerant and resistant to heat; sustainable management of soil; pit and tranches to enhance water management in plantation areas; minimal use of fertilisers, herbicides, and pesticides; zero burning; and minimum tillage. The reviewed studies recommended the following to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change: sustainable national policy on climate change, conservation of the existing carbon stock, effective management of tropical rainforest biodiversity, afforestation for carbon sequestration, and reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission.}, }
@article {pmid34400239, year = {2021}, author = {Chattopadhyay, B and Forcina, G and Garg, KM and Irestedt, M and Guerrini, M and Barbanera, F and Rheindt, FE}, title = {Novel genome reveals susceptibility of popular gamebird, the red-legged partridge (Alectoris rufa, Phasianidae), to climate change.}, journal = {Genomics}, volume = {113}, number = {5}, pages = {3430-3438}, doi = {10.1016/j.ygeno.2021.08.010}, pmid = {34400239}, issn = {1089-8646}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Galliformes/genetics ; Poultry ; }, abstract = {We produced a high-quality de novo genome assembly of the red-legged partridge A. rufa, the first reference genome of its genus, by utilising novel 10× Chromium technology. The estimated genome size was 1.19 Gb with an overall genome heterozygosity of 0.0022; no runs of homozygosity were observed. In total, 21,589 protein coding genes were identified and assigned to 16,772 orthologs. Of these, 201 emerged as unique to Alectoris and were enriched for positive regulation of epithelial cell migration, viral genome integration and maturation. Using PSMC analysis, we inferred a major demographic decline commencing ~140,000 years ago, consistent with forest expansion and reduction of open habitats during the Eemian interglacial. Present-day populations exhibit the historically lowest genetic diversity. Besides implications for management and conservation, this genome also promises key insights into the physiology of these birds with a view to improving poultry husbandry practices.}, }
@article {pmid34397226, year = {2021}, author = {Galfi, VM and Lucarini, V}, title = {Fingerprinting Heatwaves and Cold Spells and Assessing Their Response to Climate Change Using Large Deviation Theory.}, journal = {Physical review letters}, volume = {127}, number = {5}, pages = {058701}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevLett.127.058701}, pmid = {34397226}, issn = {1079-7114}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Ecosystem ; Hot Temperature ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Extreme events provide relevant insights into the dynamics of climate and their understanding is key for mitigating the impact of climate variability and climate change. By applying large deviation theory to a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we define the climatology of persistent heatwaves and cold spells in key target geographical regions by estimating the rate functions for the surface temperature, and we assess the impact of increasing CO_{2} concentration on such persistent anomalies. Hence, we can better quantify the increasing hazard due to heatwaves in a warmer climate. We show that two 2010 high impact events-summer Russian heatwave and winter Dzud in Mongolia-are associated with atmospheric patterns that are exceptional compared to the typical ones but typical compared to the climatology of extremes. Their dynamics is encoded in the natural variability of the climate. Finally, we propose and test an approximate formula for the return times of large and persistent temperature fluctuations from easily accessible statistical properties.}, }
@article {pmid34392584, year = {2021}, author = {Keyel, AC and Raghavendra, A and Ciota, AT and Elison Timm, O}, title = {West Nile virus is predicted to be more geographically widespread in New York State and Connecticut under future climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {21}, pages = {5430-5445}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15842}, pmid = {34392584}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Connecticut/epidemiology ; *Culicidae ; Humans ; New York/epidemiology ; United States ; *West Nile Fever/epidemiology ; *West Nile virus ; }, abstract = {The effects of climate change on infectious diseases are a topic of considerable interest and discussion. We studied West Nile virus (WNV) in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) using a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model climate change scenario, which allows us to examine the effects of climate change and variability on WNV risk at county level. We chose WNV because it is well studied, has caused over 50,000 reported human cases, and over 2200 deaths in the United States. The ecological impacts have been substantial (e.g., millions of avian deaths), and economic impacts include livestock deaths, morbidity, and healthcare-related expenses. We trained two Random Forest models with observational climate data and human cases to predict future levels of WNV based on future weather conditions. The Regional Model used present-day data from NY and CT, whereas the Analog Model was fit for states most closely matching the predicted future conditions in the region. Separately, we predicted changes to mosquito-based WNV risk using a trait-based thermal biology approach (Mosquito Model). The WRF model produced control simulations (present day) and pseudo-global warming simulations (future). The Regional and Analog Models predicted an overall increase in human cases of WNV under future warming. However, the Analog Model did not predict as strong of an increase in the number of human cases as the Regional Model, and predicted a decrease in cases in some counties that currently experience high numbers of WNV cases. The Mosquito Model also predicted a decrease in risk in current high-risk areas, with an overall reduction in the population-weighted relative risk (but an increase in area-weighted risk). The Mosquito Model supports the Analog Model as making more realistic predictions than the Regional Model. All three models predicted a geographic increase in WNV cases across NY and CT.}, }
@article {pmid34392574, year = {2021}, author = {Barnes, PW and Bornman, JF and Pandey, KK and Bernhard, GH and Bais, AF and Neale, RE and Robson, TM and Neale, PJ and Williamson, CE and Zepp, RG and Madronich, S and Wilson, SR and Andrady, AL and Heikkilä, AM and Robinson, SA}, title = {The success of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating interactive effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change on the environment.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {22}, pages = {5681-5683}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15841}, pmid = {34392574}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Ozone ; *Ozone Depletion ; Stratospheric Ozone ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {The Montreal Protocol and its Amendments have been highly effective in protecting the stratospheric ozone layer, preventing global increases in solar ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B; 280-315 nm) at Earth's surface, and reducing global warming. While ongoing and projected changes in UV-B radiation and climate still pose a threat to human health, food security, air and water quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and construction materials and fabrics, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a critical role in protecting Earth's inhabitants and ecosystems by addressing many of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.}, }
@article {pmid34392565, year = {2021}, author = {Mungmunpuntipantip, R and Wiwanitkit, V}, title = {End-stage heart failure patient, care provider, and climate change-driven natural disaster.}, journal = {Journal of cardiac surgery}, volume = {36}, number = {11}, pages = {4435}, doi = {10.1111/jocs.15921}, pmid = {34392565}, issn = {1540-8191}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Heart Failure/therapy ; Humans ; *Natural Disasters ; }, }
@article {pmid34390673, year = {2021}, author = {Rossa-Roccor, V and Giang, A and Kershaw, P}, title = {Framing climate change as a human health issue: enough to tip the scale in climate policy?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {8}, pages = {e553-e559}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00113-3}, pmid = {34390673}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Politics ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Almost four decades of climate science have not yet led to transformative policy change at the pace and scale required to confront the climate crisis. Colleagues in the planetary health community attribute much potential to framing climate change as human health issue in order to create greater impact on policy makers. In this Personal View, we discuss the promise and limitations of this approach by drawing on insights from political science and public policy with regards to the complexity of these contentious policy issues. We argue that we, as academics, have a moral obligation to embrace an active role in the knowledge-to-action (KTA) sphere and that we would be well advised to expand our KTA approach to include evidence-based strategies, such as lobbying or civil resistance. As scientists, we can no longer wait to embrace the realpolitik insights of political science to move our evidence into policy action.}, }
@article {pmid34386943, year = {2022}, author = {Callaghan, TV and Cazzolla Gatti, R and Phoenix, G}, title = {The need to understand the stability of arctic vegetation during rapid climate change: An assessment of imbalance in the literature.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {51}, number = {4}, pages = {1034-1044}, pmid = {34386943}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {In early studies, northern vegetation response to global warming recognised both increases in biomass/cover and shrinking of species' distributional ranges. Subsequent field measurements focussed on vegetation cover and biomass increases ("greening"), and more recently decreases ("browning"). However, satellite observations show that more than 50% of arctic vegetation has not changed significantly despite rapid warming. While absence of change in remote sensing data does not necessarily mean no ecological change on the ground, the significant proportion of the Arctic that appears to be stable in the face of considerable climate change points to a greater need to understand Arctic ecosystem stability. In this paper, we performed an extensive review of the available literature to seek balances or imbalances between research focussing on "greening", "browning" and "stability/no change". We find that greening studies dominate the literature though two relatively small areas of the Arctic are disproportionately represented for this main change process. Critically, there are too few studies anywhere investigating stability. We highlight the need to understand the mechanisms driving Arctic ecosystem stability, and the potential longer-term consequences of remaining stable in a rapidly changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid34385437, year = {2021}, author = {Aubry, TJ and Staunton-Sykes, J and Marshall, LR and Haywood, J and Abraham, NL and Schmidt, A}, title = {Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {4708}, pmid = {34385437}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {NE/T006897/1//RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; NE/S000887/1//RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; NE/T006897/1//RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/ ; }, abstract = {Explosive volcanic eruptions affect climate, but how climate change affects the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing remains unexplored. We combine an eruptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to show that the stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Nabro 2011) will be reduced by 75% in a high-end warming scenario compared to today, a consequence of future tropopause height rise and unchanged eruptive column height. In contrast, global-mean radiative forcing, stratospheric warming and surface cooling from infrequent large-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo 1991) will be exacerbated by 30%, 52 and 15% in the future, respectively. These changes are driven by an aerosol size decrease, mainly caused by the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and an increase in eruptive column height. Quantifying changes in both eruptive column dynamics and aerosol lifecycle is therefore key to assessing the climate response to future eruptions.}, }
@article {pmid34384794, year = {2021}, author = {Bernasconi, S and Levy, C and Cohen, R and Giardino, I and Pettoello-Mantovani, M and Somekh, E}, title = {Climate Change and Environmental Pollution Induced Risks on Children's Health: Are Pediatricians Prepared to Meet the Challenge?.}, journal = {The Journal of pediatrics}, volume = {238}, number = {}, pages = {346-347.e2}, doi = {10.1016/j.jpeds.2021.08.001}, pmid = {34384794}, issn = {1097-6833}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Pollution ; Humans ; *Pediatrics ; }, }
@article {pmid34382601, year = {2021}, author = {Galandiuk, S}, title = {Colorectal Surgeons and Climate Change? True, True and a Grain of Salt.}, journal = {Diseases of the colon and rectum}, volume = {64}, number = {10}, pages = {1159}, doi = {10.1097/DCR.0000000000002239}, pmid = {34382601}, issn = {1530-0358}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Colorectal Neoplasms ; Humans ; *Surgeons ; }, }
@article {pmid34382163, year = {2022}, author = {Bakirci, K and Kirtiloglu, Y}, title = {Effect of climate change to solar energy potential: a case study in the Eastern Anatolia Region of Turkey.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {2839-2852}, pmid = {34382163}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Gases ; *Solar Energy ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {Architects, hydrologists, agriculturists, and solar engineers require the data of solar radiation for solar technologies such as solar drying, cooking, heating, and building illuminations. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of climate change on the potential of solar energy in the Eastern Anatolia Region (EAR) of Turkey. The global warming problem caused by greenhouse gases is increasing due to the increase in the use of fossil origin fuels in our world, and climate change is coming out. In this content, the values of monthly sunshine duration and global solar radiation are provided by the Meteorological Service in Turkish for the EAR of Turkey in the periods between 1987 and 2010. Thus, in a period of 24 years, it is investigated how much change took place in meteorological data. These changes are examined in the two different periods. In conclusion, it is observed that important changes occur in some meteorological data. The highest decrease in the variation amount of yearly average global solar radiation is seen in Erzurum, while the highest increase is seen in Erzincan. The highest increase in the variation amount of yearly average sunshine duration is seen in Erzincan, while the highest decrease is seen in Bitlis. In addition, the statistical analysis (t-test) is made to determine whether the difference between two periods is statistically significant for a considered region.}, }
@article {pmid34380924, year = {2022}, author = {Duckworth, M and Hsu, S and Boehler-Tatman, M}, title = {Preparing the Next Generation of Health Professionals to Tackle Climate Change.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {97}, number = {8}, pages = {1105}, doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000004341}, pmid = {34380924}, issn = {1938-808X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34380261, year = {2021}, author = {Azmat, M and Ilyas, F and Sarwar, A and Huggel, C and Vaghefi, SA and Hui, T and Qamar, MU and Bilal, M and Ahmed, Z}, title = {Impacts of climate change on wheat phenology and yield in Indus Basin, Pakistan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {790}, number = {}, pages = {148221}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148221}, pmid = {34380261}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Pakistan ; Seasons ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Aim of this study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on phenology and yield of winter wheat in rainfed and irrigated regions of Pakistan by using integration of two well-known crop models including STICS and APSIM with CORDEX-SA regional climate models (RCMs). A number of different adaptation strategies based on early sowing (i.e. S1:10 and S2:20 days), irrigation (I1:15% and I2:30% additional water) and a combination of sowing and irrigation adaptations were examined to recover the potential losses that would occur due to climate change. The data for the wheat phenology, biomass (t/ha) at different stages and yield (t/ha) was obtained from several experiments at national research institutes in Pakistan under both rainfed and irrigated conditions. After calibration and validation of both crop models (STICS and APSIM), the current climate data were replaced with the CORDEX-SA RCM-projections for climate change impact analysis. A significant rising and declining trends were observed in temperature and precipitation patterns, respectively, for the selected study regions. Consequently, a substantial impact of climate change on wheat phenology (anthesis stage, maturity stage, growing length), biomass (t/ha) and yield (t/ha) was observed under scenario periods for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Additionally, the adaptation strategies on wheat for rainfed regions showed a substantial improvement in wheat biomass and yield simulated by STICS model particularly for sowing-2 under RCP4.5. Irrigated regions showed more improvement for irrigation-2 (I2) and combination of sowing-1 + irrigation-2 (S1 + I2) using the STICS model under both RCPs. Overall, it was observed that changes in crop phenology had a stronger impact in terms of crop yield for RCP8.5 as compare to RCP4.5. This study provides a valuable understanding and way forward for the better wheat management under changes in precipitation and temperature patterns. The study also discuss in detail, the adaptation strategies to cope with potential damage, over two different irrigation zones (rainfed and irrigated) in Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid34380249, year = {2021}, author = {Bhattacharyya, SS and Leite, FFGD and Adeyemi, MA and Sarker, AJ and Cambareri, GS and Faverin, C and Tieri, MP and Castillo-Zacarías, C and Melchor-Martínez, EM and Iqbal, HMN and Parra-Saldívar, R}, title = {A paradigm shift to CO2 sequestration to manage global warming - With the emphasis on developing countries.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {790}, number = {}, pages = {148169}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148169}, pmid = {34380249}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Carbon Sequestration ; Developing Countries ; *Global Warming ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Global land use changes that tend to satisfy the food needs of augmenting population is provoking agricultural soils to act as a carbon (C) source rather than sink. Agricultural management practices are crucial to offset the anthropogenic C emission; hence, Carbon sequestration (CS) in agriculture is a viable option for reversing this cycle, but it is based on hypotheses that must be questioned in order to contribute to the development of new agricultural techniques. This review summarizes a global perspective focusing on 5 developing countries (DC) (Bangladesh, Brazil, Argentina, Nigeria and Mexico) because of their importance on global C budget and on the agricultural sector as well as the impact produced by several global practices such as tillage, agroforestry systems, silvopasture, 4p1000 on CO2 sequestration. We also discussed about global policies regarding CS and tools available to measure CS. We found that among all practices agroforestry deemed to be the most promising approach and conversion from pasture to agroforestry will be favorable to both farmers and in changing climate, (e.g., agroforestry systems can generate 725 Euroeq C credit in EU) while some strategies (e.g. no-tillage) supposed to be less promising and over-hyped. In terms of conservative tillage (no-, reduced-, and minimal tillage systems), global and DC's land use increased. However, the impact of no-tillage is ambiguous since the beneficial impact is only limited to top soil (0-10 cm) as opposed to conventional mechanisms. Grasses, cereals and cover crops have higher potential of CS in their soils. While the 4p1000 initiative appears to be successful in certain areas, further research is needed to validate this possible mode of CS. Furthermore, for effective policy design and implementation to obtain more SOC stock, we strongly emphasize to include farmers globally as they are the one and only sustainable driver, hence, government and associated authorities should take initiatives (e.g., stimulus incentives, C credits) to form C market and promote C plantings. Otherwise, policy failure may occur. Moreover, to determine the true effect of these activities or regulations on CS, we must concurrently analyze SOC stock adjustments using models or direct measurements. Above all, SOC is the founding block of sustainable agriculture and inextricably linked with food security. Climate-smart managing of agriculture is very crucial for a massive SOC stock globally especially in DC's.}, }
@article {pmid34380212, year = {2021}, author = {Mikó, Z and Nemesházi, E and Ujhegyi, N and Verebélyi, V and Ujszegi, J and Kásler, A and Bertalan, R and Vili, N and Gál, Z and Hoffmann, OI and Hettyey, A and Bókony, V}, title = {Sex reversal and ontogeny under climate change and chemical pollution: are there interactions between the effects of elevated temperature and a xenoestrogen on early development in agile frogs?.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {285}, number = {}, pages = {117464}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2021.117464}, pmid = {34380212}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; Anura ; Climate Change ; *Endocrine Disruptors/toxicity ; Ethinyl Estradiol ; Female ; Male ; Temperature ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic environmental change poses a special threat to species in which genetic sex determination can be overwritten by the thermal and chemical environment. Endocrine disrupting chemicals as well as extreme temperatures can induce sex reversal in such species, with potentially wide-ranging consequences for fitness, demography, population viability and evolution. Despite accumulating evidence suggesting that chemical and thermal effects may interact in ecological contexts, little is known about their combined effects on sex reversal. Here we assessed the simultaneous effects of high temperature (female-to-male sex-reversing agent) and 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), a widespread xenoestrogen (male-to-female sex-reversing agent), on sexual development and fitness-related traits in agile frogs (Rana dalmatina). We exposed tadpoles to a six-days heat wave (30 °C) and/or an ecologically relevant concentration of EE2 (30 ng/L) in one of three consecutive larval periods, and diagnosed sex reversals two months after metamorphosis using species-specific markers for genetic sexing. We found that high temperature induced female-to-male sex reversal, decreased survival, delayed metamorphosis, decreased body mass at metamorphosis, and increased the proportion of animals that had no fat bodies, while EE2 had no effect on these traits. Simultaneous exposure to heat and EE2 had non-additive effects on juvenile body mass, which were dependent on treatment timing and further complicated by a negative effect of sex reversal on body mass. These results show that environmentally relevant exposure to EE2 does not diminish the female-to-male sex-reversing effects of high temperature. Instead, our findings on growth suggest that climate change and chemical pollution may have complex consequences for individual fitness and population persistence in species with environment-sensitive sex determination.}, }
@article {pmid34379231, year = {2021}, author = {Macfarlane, RA}, title = {Correction to: Wild Laboratories of Climate Change: Plants, Phenology, and Global Warming, 1955-1980.}, journal = {Journal of the history of biology}, volume = {54}, number = {2}, pages = {341-342}, doi = {10.1007/s10739-021-09648-3}, pmid = {34379231}, issn = {1573-0387}, }
@article {pmid34379207, year = {2021}, author = {Tarnian, F and Kumar, S and Azarnivand, H and Chahouki, MAZ and Mossivand, AM}, title = {Assessing the effects of climate change on the distribution of Daphne mucronata in Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {9}, pages = {562}, pmid = {34379207}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Daphne ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Iran ; }, abstract = {Zagros Mountains are like an island in the Middle East and they are subjected to changes in climate. Daphne mucronata Royle is an important medicinal plant species preserved in the high elevation regions in these mountains. Maxent species distribution model was used to integrate presence data (2413 points) and environmental variables to model the current and future potential distribution of D. mucronata in Iran. The most important variables were Bio19 with 50.5% contribution, followed by Bio8 and Bio2 with 30% and 11.4% contributions, respectively. The best Maxent model included seven variables, 4 feature types (linear, quadratic, product, and hinge), and had a test AUC value of 0.894. The current potential distribution indicated that 8% of Iran's drylands are suitable for growing D. mucronata and this area could decrease to 5.2% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5, and 3.1% under RCP 8.5 due to climate change. Our results suggest that D. mucronata may lose overall about 2.8% and 4.9% of its current distribution under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2050. There would be only 0.7 and 0.2% gains under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The species would locally disappear between 1500- and 2000-m elevation under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The establishment of some stations for monitoring the changes in transition zone or lost areas especially on the southeastern parts of Zagros Mountain can help in detecting changes in the future. Additionally, stable habitats may be good target areas for future conservation planning.}, }
@article {pmid34374325, year = {2022}, author = {Hossain, B and Shi, G and Ajiang, C and Sarker, MNI and Sohel, MS and Sun, Z and Hamza, A}, title = {Impact of climate change on human health: evidence from riverine island dwellers of Bangladesh.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {32}, number = {11}, pages = {2359-2375}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2021.1964447}, pmid = {34374325}, issn = {1369-1619}, mesh = {Bangladesh/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {This study aims to explore the impact of climate change on health, including local adaptation strategies. A mixed-method approach has been used in this study. The results reveal that increasing the frequency of flooding, severity of riverbank erosion and drought, and rising disease outbreak are the highest indicators of climate change perceived by riverine island (char) dwellers, which is similar to the observed data. It also uncovers, approximately all respondents encounter several health-related issues during different seasons where prevailing cold and cough with fever, skin diseases, and diarrhoea are the leading ailments. Several adaptation strategies are accommodated by char inhabitants in order to enhance resilience against the climate change health impacts, but the paucity of money, disrupted communication, lack of formal health-care centre are the most obstacles to the sustainability of adaptation. This research recommends that healthcare-associated project should be performed through proper monitoring for exterminating char dwellers' health issues.}, }
@article {pmid34374194, year = {2021}, author = {López-Caamal, A and Tovar-Sánchez, E}, title = {Comparing the population history of Neotropical annual species: The role of climate change and hybridization between Tithonia tubaeformis and T. rotundifolia (Asteraceae).}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {962-973}, doi = {10.1111/plb.13313}, pmid = {34374194}, issn = {1438-8677}, support = {35909//Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog&#xed;a/ ; 61275//Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog&#xed;a/ ; }, mesh = {*Asteraceae ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; Haplotypes ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; Tithonia ; }, abstract = {Historical climate changes and interspecific gene flow have played an important role in shaping the distribution and genetic diversity of the biota in the Neotropics. In this study, we explored the role of both the Pleistocene climate changes and hybridization on the contemporary geographic structure of two Neotropical weedy species: Tithonia tubaeformis and T. rotundifolia. Distribution shifts under past and current climate conditions were explored through ecological niche modelling (ENM). We then tested these hypotheses using chloroplast microsatellite (cpSSR) data in T. tubaeformis and compared the patterns deduced with those previously reported for T. rotundifolia using the same cpSSR loci. Lastly, we searched for shared haplotypes between species. Both species exhibited significant downwards altitudinal shifts during the last interglacial (LIG) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). For instance, T. rotundifolia showed large suitable habitat areas since the LIG at xeric conditions in western Mesoamerica. Tithonia tubaeformis showed a ~five-fold range contraction during the LIG compared to current climate conditions, followed by a range expansion in the LGM. Despite the large shared refugial areas predicted through ENM, we found a low number of shared haplotypes, suggesting a minor role of hybridization in shaping the geographic structure of these species. Our results provide additional patterns of the population history of the northern Neotropics during the Quaternary, and we suggest that weedy widespread species are a well-suited group for the study of the effects of historic climatic changes on the biota of this region.}, }
@article {pmid34373621, year = {2021}, author = {Aguirre-Liguori, JA and Ramírez-Barahona, S and Gaut, BS}, title = {The evolutionary genomics of species' responses to climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {10}, pages = {1350-1360}, pmid = {34373621}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Genomics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a threat to biodiversity. One way that this threat manifests is through pronounced shifts in the geographical range of species over time. To predict these shifts, researchers have primarily used species distribution models. However, these models are based on assumptions of niche conservatism and do not consider evolutionary processes, potentially limiting their accuracy and value. To incorporate evolution into the prediction of species' responses to climate change, researchers have turned to landscape genomic data and examined information about local genetic adaptation using climate models. Although this is an important advancement, this approach currently does not include other evolutionary processes-such as gene flow, population dispersal and genomic load-that are critical for predicting the fate of species across the landscape. Here, we briefly review the current practices for the use of species distribution models and for incorporating local adaptation. We next discuss the rationale and theory for considering additional processes, reviewing how they can be incorporated into studies of species' responses to climate change. We summarize with a conceptual framework of how manifold layers of information can be combined to predict the potential response of specific populations to climate change. We illustrate all of the topics using an exemplar dataset and provide the source code as potential tutorials. This Perspective is intended to be a step towards a more comprehensive integration of population genomics with climate change science.}, }
@article {pmid34373547, year = {2021}, author = {Speer, MS and Leslie, LM and MacNamara, S and Hartigan, J}, title = {From the 1990s climate change has decreased cool season catchment precipitation reducing river heights in Australia's southern Murray-Darling Basin.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {16136}, pmid = {34373547}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) is Australia's major agricultural region. The southern MDB receives most of its annual catchment runoff during the cool season (April-September). Focusing on the Murrumbidgee River measurements at Wagga Wagga and further downstream at Hay, cool season river heights are available year to year. The 27-year period April-September Hay and Wagga Wagga river heights exhibit decreases between 1965 and 1991 and 1992-2018 not matched by declining April-September catchment rainfall. However, permutation tests of means and variances of late autumn (April-May) dam catchment precipitation and net inflows, produced p-values indicating a highly significant decline since the early 1990s. Consequently, dry catchments in late autumn, even with average cool season rainfall, have reduced dam inflows and decreased river heights downstream from Wagga Wagga, before water extraction for irrigation. It is concluded that lower April-September mean river heights at Wagga Wagga and decreased river height variability at Hay, since the mid-1990s, are due to combined lower April-May catchment precipitation and increased mean temperatures. Machine learning attribute detection revealed the southern MDB drivers as the southern annular mode (SAM), inter-decadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and global sea-surface temperature (GlobalSST). Continued catchment drying and warming will drastically reduce future water availability.}, }
@article {pmid34373007, year = {2021}, author = {Johnson, SL}, title = {Who Wants a Seat at the Table for Dietary and Climate Change Strategies?.}, journal = {Journal of nutrition education and behavior}, volume = {53}, number = {8}, pages = {642}, doi = {10.1016/j.jneb.2021.06.013}, pmid = {34373007}, issn = {1878-2620}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Diet ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34371666, year = {2021}, author = {Freitas, TR and Santos, JA and Silva, AP and Fraga, H}, title = {Influence of Climate Change on Chestnut Trees: A Review.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {34371666}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {The chestnut tree (Castanea spp.) is an important resource worldwide. It is cultivated due to the high value of its fruits and wood. The evolution between Castanea biodiversity and humans has resulted in the spread of chestnut genetic diversity. In 2019, the chestnut tree area worldwide was approximately 596 × 10[3] ha for fruit production (Southern Europe, Southwestern United States of America, and Asia). In Europe 311 × 10[3] t were produced. Five genetic poles can be identified: three in Greece, the northwest coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the rest of the Mediterranean. Over the years, there have been some productivity changes, in part associated with climate change. Climate is considered one of the main drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem change. In the future, new challenges associated with climate change are expected, which could threaten this crop. It is essential to identify the impacts of climate change on chestnut trees, improving the current understanding of climate-tree interconnections. To deal with these projected changes adaptation strategies must be planned. This manuscript demonstrates the impacts of climate change on chestnut cultivation, reviewing the most recent studies on the subject. Furthermore, an analysis of possible adaptation strategies against the potentially negative impacts was studied.}, }
@article {pmid34371417, year = {2021}, author = {Bosch-Belmar, M and Giommi, C and Milisenda, G and Abbruzzo, A and Sarà, G}, title = {Integrating functional traits into correlative species distribution models to investigate the vulnerability of marine human activities to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {799}, number = {}, pages = {149351}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149351}, pmid = {34371417}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change and particularly warming are significantly impacting marine ecosystems and the services they provided. Temperature, as the main factor driving all biological processes, may influence ectotherms metabolism, thermal tolerance limits and distribution species patterns. The joining action of climate change and local stressors (including the increasing human marine use) may facilitate the spread of non-indigenous and native outbreak forming species, leading to associated economic consequences for marine coastal economies. Marine aquaculture is one among the most economic anthropogenic activities threatened by multiple stressors and in turn, by increasing hard artificial substrates at sea would facilitate the expansion of these problematic organisms and face negative consequences regarding facilities management and farmed organisms' welfare. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are considered powerful tools for forecasting the future occurrences and distributions of problematic species used to preventively aware stakeholders. In the current study, we propose the use of combined correlative SDMs and mechanistic models, based on individual thermal performance curve models calculated through non-linear least squares regression and Bayesian statistics (functional-SDM), as an ecological relevant tool to increase our ability to investigate the potential indirect effect of climate change on the distributions of harmful species for human activities at sea, taking aquaculture as a food productive example and the benthic cnidarian Pennaria disticha (one of the most pernicious fouling species in aquaculture) as model species. Our combined approach was able to improve the prediction ability of both mechanistic and correlative models to get more ecologically informed "whole" niche of the studied species. Incorporating the mechanistic links between the organisms' functional traits and their environments into SDMs through the use of a Bayesian functional-SDM approach would be a useful and reliable tool in early warning ecological systems, risk assessment and management actions focused on important economic activities and natural ecosystems conservation.}, }
@article {pmid34370449, year = {2021}, author = {AzariJafari, H and Xu, X and Gregory, J and Kirchain, R}, title = {Urban-Scale Evaluation of Cool Pavement Impacts on the Urban Heat Island Effect and Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {55}, number = {17}, pages = {11501-11510}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.1c00664}, pmid = {34370449}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; *Hot Temperature ; Prospective Studies ; }, abstract = {We implemented a context-sensitive and prospective framework to assess the global warming potential (GWP) impacts of cool pavement strategies on specific roads for different cities. The approach incorporates several interconnections among different elements of the built environment, such as buildings and urban road segments, as well as the transportation fleet, using specific building and pavement information from an urban area. We show that increasing pavement albedo lowers urban air temperatures but can adversely affect the building energy demand in the areas with high incident radiation exposure. The heating energy savings and the radiative forcing effect improve the GWP savings in cold and humid climate conditions. The total GWP savings intensity is sensitive to the city morphology and road traffic. The probabilistic results show that cool pavement strategies can offset 1.0-3.0% and 0.7-6.0% of the total GHG emissions of the U.S. cities Boston and Phoenix, respectively, for a 50-year analysis period. The worldwide range of savings can be as large as 5.0-44.7 Gt of CO2 eq. A paradigm shift in pavement strategy selection is required in most neighborhoods.}, }
@article {pmid34370202, year = {2022}, author = {Yang, J and Yang, K and Zhang, Y and Luo, Y and Shang, C}, title = {Maximum lake surface water temperatures changing characteristics under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {2547-2554}, pmid = {34370202}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {41761084//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; *Cyanobacteria ; Ecosystem ; *Lakes ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) plays an important role in the metabolism of aquatic organisms, and is also an important indicator in lake ecosystems which affects the ecology and biogeochemical processes of lakes. The current research mainly focuses on the long-term trends of LSWT and the impact of climate warming on LSWT. Researchers have not paid enough attention to the study of extreme changes in trend of LSWT. An ice-free lake in China called Dianchi Lake was selected as our research area. We carried out a quantitative analysis of and provided a discussion on the changes in the maximum lake surface water temperature (MLSWT) from 2001 to 2018 at two timescales (month and year) based on MODIS 11A2 composite product data and water temperature environment of cyanobacteria outbreaks. The results showed that the MLSWT of Dianchi Lake increased between 2001 and 2018 and continued to exceed the temperature threshold (17.6°C) for cyanobacterial outbreaks during some timeframes and that the duration of high temperatures also increased. This phenomenon will extend the suitable growth period of cyanobacteria and will have a complex and long-term impact on water quality, the lake ecological environment, and the growth of aquatic organisms.}, }
@article {pmid34369808, year = {2022}, author = {Hwong, AR and Kuhl, EA and Compton, WM and Benton, T and Grzenda, A and Doty, B and Thompson, L and Gogtay, N and Clarke, D and Alpert, J}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health: Implications for the Psychiatric Workforce.}, journal = {Psychiatric services (Washington, D.C.)}, volume = {73}, number = {5}, pages = {592-595}, doi = {10.1176/appi.ps.202100227}, pmid = {34369808}, issn = {1557-9700}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; Mental Health ; *Mental Health Services ; *Psychiatry/education ; Workforce ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major global public mental health crisis that is expected to increase the need for mental health services. Psychiatrists and other mental health care providers must address workforce needs through recruitment, training and education, prevention and intervention, public policy and advocacy, and direct efforts to reduce climate change. This column discusses concrete steps for the psychiatric workforce to take to prepare for growing mental health needs associated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34368290, year = {2021}, author = {Caroprese, M and Bradford, BJ and Rhoads, RP}, title = {Editorial: Impact of Climate Change on Immune Responses in Agricultural Animals.}, journal = {Frontiers in veterinary science}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {732203}, pmid = {34368290}, issn = {2297-1769}, }
@article {pmid34367899, year = {2021}, author = {Rublee, C and Bills, C and Theron, E and Brysiewicz, P and Singh, S and Muya, I and Smith, W and Akpevwe, OE and Ali, LA and Dauda, E and Calvello Hynes, E}, title = {Outcomes of a Climate Change Workshop at the 2020 African Conference on Emergency Medicine.}, journal = {African journal of emergency medicine : Revue africaine de la medecine d'urgence}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {372-377}, pmid = {34367899}, issn = {2211-4203}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: A changing climate will have demonstrable effects on health and healthcare systems, with specific and disproportionate effects on communities in Africa. Emergency care systems and providers have an opportunity to be at the forefront of efforts to combat the worst health effects from climate change. The 2020 African Conference on Emergency Medicine, under the auspices of the African Federation for Emergency Medicine, convened its first ever workshop on the topic of climate change and human health. Structured as a full day virtual course, the didactic sections were available for both live and asynchronous learning with more than 100 participants enrolled in the course. The workshop introduced the topic of the health effects of climate as they relate to emergency care in Africa and provided a forum to discuss ideas regarding the way forward. Lectures and focused discussions addressed three broad themes related to: health impacts, health care delivery, and advocacy. To our knowledge, this is the first workshop for health professionals to cover topics specific to emergency care, climate change, and health in Africa. The results of this workshop will help to guide future efforts aimed at advancing emergency care approaches in Africa with regard to medical education, research, and policy.<br><br>AFRICAN RELEVANCE: &#x2022;Climate-related extreme weather events are adversely affecting health and health care delivery in African countries.&#x2022;African organisations, cities, and nations have taken positive steps to adapt and build climate resilience.&#x2022;There are opportunities for emergency care professionals and scholars to continue to expand, and lead, climate and health education, research, and policy initiatives on the continent.}, }
@article {pmid34367602, year = {2021}, author = {Dunham, KD and Tucker, AM and Koons, DN and Abebe, A and Dobson, FS and Grand, JB}, title = {Demographic responses to climate change in a threatened Arctic species.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {15}, pages = {10627-10643}, pmid = {34367602}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture-mark-recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first-year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid34367588, year = {2021}, author = {Sutela, T and Vehanen, T and Jounela, P and Aroviita, J}, title = {Species-environment relationships of fish and map-based variables in small boreal streams: Linkages with climate change and bioassessment.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {15}, pages = {10457-10467}, pmid = {34367588}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Species-environment relationships were studied between the occurrence of 13 fish and lamprey species and 9 mainly map-based environmental variables of Finnish boreal small streams. A self-organizing map (SOM) analysis showed strong relationships between the fish species and environmental variables in a single model (explained variance 55.9%). Besides basic environmental variables such as altitude, catchment size, and mean temperature, land cover variables were also explored. A logistic regression analysis indicated that the occurrence probability of brown trout, Salmo trutta L., decreased with an increasing percentage of peatland ditch drainage in the upper catchment. Ninespine stickleback, Pungitius pungitius (L.), and three-spined stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus L., seemed to benefit from urban areas in the upper catchment. Discovered relationships between fish species occurrence and land-use attributes are encouraging for the development of fish-based bioassessment for small streams. The presented ordination of the fish species in the mean temperature gradient will help in predicting fish community responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34367565, year = {2021}, author = {Guo, K and Yuan, S and Wang, H and Zhong, J and Wu, Y and Chen, W and Hu, C and Chang, Q}, title = {Species distribution models for predicting the habitat suitability of Chinese fire-bellied newt Cynops orientalis under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {15}, pages = {10147-10154}, pmid = {34367565}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change influences species geographical distribution and diversity pattern. The Chinese fire-bellied newt (Cynops orientalis) is an endemic species distributed in East-central China, which has been classified as near-threatened species recently due to habitat destruction and degradation and illegal trade in the domestic and international pet markets. So far, little is known about the spatial distribution of the species. Based on bioclimatic data of the current and future climate projections, we modeled the change in suitable habitat for C. orientalis by ten algorithms, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. In this study, 46 records of C. orientalis from East China and 8 bioclimatic variables were used. Among the ten modeling algorithms, four (GAM, GBM, Maxent, and RF) were selected according to their predictive abilities. The current habitat suitability showed that C. orientalis had a relatively wide but fragmented distribution, and it encompassed 41,862 km[2]. The models suggested that precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio6) had the highest contribution to the model. This study revealed that C. orientalis is sensitive to climate change, which will lead to a large range shift. The projected spatial and temporal pattern of range shifts for C. orientalis should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for amphibians in East China.}, }
@article {pmid34366508, year = {2021}, author = {Lloyd, EA and Shepherd, TG}, title = {Climate change attribution and legal contexts: evidence and the role of storylines.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {167}, number = {3-4}, pages = {28}, pmid = {34366508}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {In a recent very influential court case, Juliana v. United States, climate scientist Kevin Trenberth used the "storyline" approach to extreme event attribution to argue that greenhouse warming had affected and will affect extreme events in their regions to such an extent that the plaintiffs already had been or will be harmed. The storyline approach to attribution is deterministic rather than probabilistic, taking certain factors as contingent and assessing the role of climate change conditional on those factors. The US Government's opposing expert witness argued that Trenberth had failed to make his case because "all his conclusions of the injuries to Plaintiffs suffer from the same failure to connect his conditional approach to Plaintiffs' local circumstances." The issue is whether it is possible to make statements about individual events based on general knowledge. A similar question is sometimes debated within the climate science community. We argue here that proceeding from the general to the specific is a process of deduction and is an entirely legitimate form of scientific reasoning. We further argue that it is well aligned with the concept of legal evidence, much more so than the more usual inductive form of scientific reasoning, which proceeds from the specific to the general. This has implications for how attribution science can be used to support climate change litigation. "The question is", said Alice, "whether you can make words mean different things." "The question is", said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master - that's all." (Lewis Carroll, Alice's Adventures in Wonderland).}, }
@article {pmid34365298, year = {2021}, author = {Sohn, YJ and Son, J and Jo, SY and Park, SY and Yoo, JI and Baritugo, KA and Na, JG and Choi, JI and Kim, HT and Joo, JC and Park, SJ}, title = {Chemoautotroph Cupriavidus necator as a potential game-changer for global warming and plastic waste problem: A review.}, journal = {Bioresource technology}, volume = {340}, number = {}, pages = {125693}, doi = {10.1016/j.biortech.2021.125693}, pmid = {34365298}, issn = {1873-2976}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Cupriavidus necator ; Global Warming ; Plastics ; *Polyhydroxyalkanoates ; }, abstract = {Cupriavidus necator, a versatile microorganism found in both soil and water, can have both heterotrophic and lithoautotrophic metabolisms depending on environmental conditions. C. necator has been extensively examined for producing Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs), the promising polyester alternatives to petroleum-based synthetic polymers because it has a superior ability for accumulating a considerable amount of PHAs from renewable resources. The development of metabolically engineered C. necator strains has led to their application for synthesizing biopolymers, biofuels and biochemicals such as ethanol, isobutanol and higher alcohols. Bio-based processes of recombinant C. necator have made much progress in production of these high-value products from biomass wastes, plastic wastes and even waste gases. In this review, we discuss the potential of C. necator as promising platform host strains that provide a great opportunity for developing a waste-based circular bioeconomy.}, }
@article {pmid34364244, year = {2021}, author = {Gao, J and Xu, C and Luo, N and Liu, X and Huang, S and Wang, P}, title = {Mitigating global warming potential while coordinating economic benefits by optimizing irrigation managements in maize production.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {298}, number = {}, pages = {113474}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113474}, pmid = {34364244}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; Agriculture ; China ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Soil ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {China is the second largest irrigated country in the world. Increasing irrigation intensity costs more water and energy, and produces more greenhouse gas (GHG). In the present study, the responses of maize economic and environmental benefits to different irrigation managements were analyzed in a 2-year field study. A purposely designed tube-study was conducted to explore mechanism underlying effects of irrigation managements in detail. Three treatments, rainfed (RF), flood irrigation (FI), and drip irrigation (DI) were included in the field. Five treatments, no irrigation, flood irrigation, irrigation in 0-30, 30-60, and 0-90 cm depth were conducted in the tube study. Compared to RF, grain yields of FI and DI significantly increased by 22.1 % and 35.7 %, respectively, the net ecosystem economic budget significantly increased by 34.2 % and 35.6 %, and carbon footprint decreased by 7.0 % and 12.7 % in the field study. The irrigation treatments in the tube study increased the global warming potential by 12.0-32.8 % and grain yield by 44.5-203.9 %, and reduced GHG intensity by 24.3-57.4 %, compared with no irrigation treatment. Water content at the top soil layer had the greatest impact on GHG emissions. In conclusion, the differences in grain yield and GHG emissions among irrigation managements are mainly due to the soil water content in space and time. Drip irrigation decreases GHG intensity by producing more grain yield due to the optimized soil water distribution in the root zone. Irrigation management with appropriate amount and frequency can increase economic benefit and reduce environmental cost in maize production.}, }
@article {pmid34363285, year = {2021}, author = {Rojo, J and Oteros, J and Picornell, A and Maya-Manzano, JM and Damialis, A and Zink, K and Werchan, M and Werchan, B and Smith, M and Menzel, A and Timpf, S and Traidl-Hoffmann, C and Bergmann, KC and Schmidt-Weber, CB and Buters, J}, title = {Effects of future climate change on birch abundance and their pollen load.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {22}, pages = {5934-5949}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15824}, pmid = {34363285}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Allergens ; *Betula ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Pollen ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on the structure and function of ecosystems will worsen public health issues like allergic diseases. Birch trees (Betula spp.) are important sources of aeroallergens in Central and Northern Europe. Birches are vulnerable to climate change as these trees are sensitive to increased temperatures and summer droughts. This study aims to examine the effect of climate change on airborne birch pollen concentrations in Central Europe using Bavaria in Southern Germany as a case study. Pollen data from 28 monitoring stations in Bavaria were used in this study, with time series of up 30 years long. An integrative approach was used to model airborne birch pollen concentrations taking into account drivers influencing birch tree abundance and birch pollen production and projections made according to different climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. Birch tree abundance is projected to decrease in parts of Bavaria at different rates, depending on the climate scenario, particularly in current centres of the species distribution. Climate change is expected to result in initial increases in pollen load but, due to the reduction in birch trees, the amount of airborne birch pollen will decrease at lower altitudes. Conversely, higher altitude areas will experience expansions in birch tree distribution and subsequent increases in airborne birch pollen in the future. Even considering restrictions for migration rates, increases in pollen load are likely in Southwestern areas, where positive trends have already been detected during the last three decades. Integrating models for the distribution and abundance of pollen sources and the drivers that control birch pollen production allowed us to model airborne birch pollen concentrations in the future. The magnitude of changes depends on location and climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid34362916, year = {2021}, author = {Åkesson, A and Curtsdotter, A and Eklöf, A and Ebenman, B and Norberg, J and Barabás, G}, title = {The importance of species interactions in eco-evolutionary community dynamics under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {4759}, pmid = {34362916}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Phenotype ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Eco-evolutionary dynamics are essential in shaping the biological response of communities to ongoing climate change. Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary framework which features more detailed species interactions, integrating evolution and dispersal. We include species interactions within and between trophic levels, and additionally, we incorporate the feature that species' interspecific competition might change due to increasing temperatures and affect the impact of climate change on ecological communities. Our modeling framework captures previously reported ecological responses to climate change, and also reveals two key results. First, interactions between trophic levels as well as temperature-dependent competition within a trophic level mitigate the negative impact of climate change on biodiversity, emphasizing the importance of understanding biotic interactions in shaping climate change impact. Second, our trait-based perspective reveals a strong positive relationship between the within-community variation in preferred temperatures and the capacity to respond to climate change. Temperature-dependent competition consistently results both in higher trait variation and more responsive communities to altered climatic conditions. Our study demonstrates the importance of species interactions in an eco-evolutionary setting, further expanding our knowledge of the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes.}, }
@article {pmid34360645, year = {2021}, author = {Shahinnia, F and Carrillo, N and Hajirezaei, MR}, title = {Engineering Climate-Change-Resilient Crops: New Tools and Approaches.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {22}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {34360645}, issn = {1422-0067}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; *Droughts ; Genetic Engineering ; *Plant Development ; Plant Proteins/*genetics ; Plants, Genetically Modified/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Environmental adversities, particularly drought and nutrient limitation, are among the major causes of crop losses worldwide. Due to the rapid increase of the world's population, there is an urgent need to combine knowledge of plant science with innovative applications in agriculture to protect plant growth and thus enhance crop yield. In recent decades, engineering strategies have been successfully developed with the aim to improve growth and stress tolerance in plants. Most strategies applied so far have relied on transgenic approaches and/or chemical treatments. However, to cope with rapid climate change and the need to secure sustainable agriculture and biomass production, innovative approaches need to be developed to effectively meet these challenges and demands. In this review, we summarize recent and advanced strategies that involve the use of plant-related cyanobacterial proteins, macro- and micronutrient management, nutrient-coated nanoparticles, and phytopathogenic organisms, all of which offer promise as protective resources to shield plants from climate challenges and to boost stress tolerance in crops.}, }
@article {pmid34360518, year = {2021}, author = {McDermott-Levy, R and Scolio, M and Shakya, KM and Moore, CH}, title = {Factors That Influence Climate Change-Related Mortality in the United States: An Integrative Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {34360518}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Disease Vectors ; Humans ; *Natural Disasters ; United States/epidemiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Global atmospheric warming leads to climate change that results in a cascade of events affecting human mortality directly and indirectly. The factors that influence climate change-related mortality within the peer-reviewed literature were examined using Whittemore and Knafl's framework for an integrative review. Ninety-eight articles were included in the review from three databases-PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus-with literature filtered by date, country, and keywords. Articles included in the review address human mortality related to climate change. The review yielded two broad themes in the literature that addressed the factors that influence climate change-related mortality. The broad themes are environmental changes, and social and demographic factors. The meteorological impacts of climate change yield a complex cascade of environmental and weather events that affect ambient temperatures, air quality, drought, wildfires, precipitation, and vector-, food-, and water-borne pathogens. The identified social and demographic factors were related to the social determinants of health. The environmental changes from climate change amplify the existing health determinants that influence mortality within the United States. Mortality data, national weather and natural disaster data, electronic medical records, and health care provider use of International Classification of Disease (ICD) 10 codes must be linked to identify climate change events to capture the full extent of climate change upon population health.}, }
@article {pmid34360159, year = {2021}, author = {Madrigano, J and Shih, RA and Izenberg, M and Fischbach, JR and Preston, BL}, title = {Science Policy to Advance a Climate Change and Health Research Agenda in the United States.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {34360159}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {R03 ES028418/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R03ES028418/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Policy ; *Public Health ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is thought to be one of the greatest public health threats of the 21st century and there has been a tremendous growth in the published literature describing the health implications of climate change over the last decade. Yet, there remain several critical knowledge gaps in this field. Closing these gaps is crucial to developing effective interventions to minimize the health risks from climate change. In this commentary, we discuss policy trends that have influenced the advancement of climate change and health research in the United States context. We then enumerate specific knowledge gaps that could be addressed by policies to advance scientific research. Finally, we describe tools and methods that have not yet been fully integrated into the field, but hold promise for advancing the science. Prioritizing this advancement offers the potential to improve public health-related policies on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34359461, year = {2021}, author = {Bindereif, SG and Rüll, F and Kolb, P and Köberle, L and Willms, H and Steidele, S and Schwarzinger, S and Gebauer, G}, title = {Impact of Global Climate Change on the European Barley Market Requires Novel Multi-Method Approaches to Preserve Crop Quality and Authenticity.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {34359461}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {2816502414//Bundesministerium f&#xfc;r Ern&#xe4;hrung und Landwirtschaft/ ; }, abstract = {Most recently in 2018 and 2019, large parts of Europe were affected by periods of massive drought. Resulting losses in cereal yield pose a major risk to the global supply of barley, as more than 60% of global production is based in Europe. Despite the arising price fluctuations on the cereal market, authenticity of the crop must be ensured, which includes correct declaration of harvest years. Here, we show a novel approach that allows such differentiation for spring barley samples, which takes advantage of the chemical changes caused by the extreme drought. Samples from 2018 were successfully differentiated from those of 2017 by analysis of changes in near-infrared spectra, enrichment in the isotope [13]C, and strong accumulation of the plant-physiological marker betaine. We demonstrate that through consideration of multiple modern analysis techniques, not only can fraudulent labelling be prevented, but indispensable knowledge on the drought tolerance of crops can be obtained.}, }
@article {pmid34358820, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, S and van den Berg, B}, title = {Neuroscience and climate change: How brain recordings can help us understand human responses to climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {126-132}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.06.023}, pmid = {34358820}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {Brain ; *Climate Change ; Electroencephalography ; Evoked Potentials ; Humans ; *Neurosciences ; }, abstract = {There is little published neuroscience research on the psychology of climate change. This review outlines how carefully designed experiments that measure key neural processes, linked to specific cognitive processes, can provide powerful tools to answer research questions in climate change psychology. We review relevant literature from social neuroscience that can be applicable to environmental research-the neural correlates of fairness and cooperation, altruistic behaviour and personal values-and discuss important factors when translating environmental psychology constructs to neuroscientific measurement. We provide a practical overview of how to implement environmental neuroscience using electroencephalography, summarising important event-related potential components and how they can be used to answer questions in climate change psychology. Challenges for the field include accurate attribution of findings, both within and between studies, the need for interdisciplinary collaboration, peer review and reporting processes.}, }
@article {pmid34358680, year = {2021}, author = {Fernando, A and Selvaraj, M and Ishitani, M and Nakashima, K and Shinozaki, K and Yamaguchi-Shinozaki, K}, title = {How utilizing the genes involved in drought tolerance could tackle the climate change-related food crisis?.}, journal = {Molecular plant}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {1601-1603}, doi = {10.1016/j.molp.2021.08.002}, pmid = {34358680}, issn = {1752-9867}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Food Supply ; Genes, Plant ; Oryza/*genetics/physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid34357355, year = {2021}, author = {Romero, H and Pott, DM and Vallarino, JG and Osorio, S}, title = {Metabolomics-Based Evaluation of Crop Quality Changes as a Consequence of Climate Change.}, journal = {Metabolites}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {34357355}, issn = {2218-1989}, support = {RTI2018-099797-B-100//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; UMA18-FEDERJA-179//Junta de Andaluc&#xed;a/ ; EMERGIA20_00309//Consejer&#xed;a de Econom&#xed;a, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad, Junta de Andaluc&#xed;a/ ; GoodBerry; grant number 679303//Horizon 2020/ ; BreedingValue; grant number 101000747//Horizon 2020/ ; BES-2013-062856//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; Plan Propio//University of M&#xe1;laga/ ; }, abstract = {Fruit composition determines the fruit quality and, consequently, consumer acceptance. As fruit quality can be modified by environmental conditions, it will be impacted by future alterations produced by global warming. Therefore, agricultural activities will be influenced by the changes in climatological conditions in cultivable areas, which could have a high socioeconomic impact if fruit production and quality decline. Currently, different stresses are being applied to several cultivated species to evaluate their impact on fruit metabolism and plant performance. With the use of metabolomic tools, these changes can be precisely measured, allowing us to determine changes in the patterns of individual compounds. As these changes depend on both the stress severity and the specific species involved and even on the specific cultivar, individual analysis must be conducted. To date, the most-studied crops have mainly been crops that are widely cultivated and have a high socioeconomic impact. In the near future, with the development of these metabolomic strategies, their implementation will be extended to other species, which will allow the adaptation of cultivation conditions and the development of varieties with high adaptability to climatological changes.}, }
@article {pmid34357024, year = {2021}, author = {Onley, IR and Moseby, KE and Austin, JJ}, title = {Genomic Approaches for Conservation Management in Australia under Climate Change.}, journal = {Life (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {34357024}, issn = {2075-1729}, support = {NA//Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship/ ; 2019-07//Nature Foundation South Australia Grand Start Grant/ ; NA//Biological Society South Australia/Nature Conservation Society of South Australia Conservation Biology Grant/ ; NA//Field Naturalists Society of South Australia Lirabenda Endowment Fund Research Grant/ ; }, abstract = {Conservation genetics has informed threatened species management for several decades. With the advent of advanced DNA sequencing technologies in recent years, it is now possible to monitor and manage threatened populations with even greater precision. Climate change presents a number of threats and challenges, but new genomics data and analytical approaches provide opportunities to identify critical evolutionary processes of relevance to genetic management under climate change. Here, we discuss the applications of such approaches for threatened species management in Australia in the context of climate change, identifying methods of facilitating viability and resilience in the face of extreme environmental stress. Using genomic approaches, conservation management practices such as translocation, targeted gene flow, and gene-editing can now be performed with the express intention of facilitating adaptation to current and projected climate change scenarios in vulnerable species, thus reducing extinction risk and ensuring the protection of our unique biodiversity for future generations. We discuss the current barriers to implementing conservation genomic projects and the efforts being made to overcome them, including communication between researchers and managers to improve the relevance and applicability of genomic studies. We present novel approaches for facilitating adaptive capacity and accelerating natural selection in species to encourage resilience in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34355109, year = {2021}, author = {Cromar, K and Howard, P and Vásquez, VN and Anthoff, D}, title = {Health Impacts of Climate Change as Contained in Economic Models Estimating the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {5}, number = {8}, pages = {e2021GH000405}, pmid = {34355109}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {The health impacts of climate change are substantial and represent a primary motivating factor to mitigate climate change. However, the health impacts in economic models that estimate the social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) have generally been made in isolation from health experts and have never been rigorously evaluated. Version 3.10 of the Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) model was used to estimate the health-based portion of current SC-CO2 estimates across low-, middle-, and high-income regions. In addition to the base model, three additional experiments assessed the sensitivity of these estimates to changes in the socio-economic assumptions in the model. Economic impacts from adverse health outcomes represent ∼8.7% of current SC-CO2 estimates. The majority of these health impacts (74%) were attributable to diarrhea mortality (from both low- and high-income regions) followed by diarrhea morbidity (12%) and malaria mortality (11%); no other health impact makes a meaningful contribution to SC-CO2 estimates in current economic models. The results of the socio-economic experiments show that the health-based portion of SC-CO2 estimates are highly sensitive to assumptions regarding income elasticity of health effects, income growth, and use of equity weights. Improving the health-based portion of SC-CO2 estimates could have substantial impacts on magnitude of the SC-CO2. Incorporating additional health impacts not previously included in estimates of SC-CO2 will be a critical component of model updates. This effort will be most successful through coordination between economists and health researchers and should focus on updating the form and function of concentration-response functions.}, }
@article {pmid34354022, year = {2021}, author = {Senay, E and Bernstein, A and Shephard, P and Salas, R and Rizzo, A and Sherman, JD and Richardson, L and Butts, G and Marwah, H and Solomon, C and Galvez, M and Thanik, E and Pezeshki, G and Zajac, L and Lee, A and Sheffield, P and Wright, R}, title = {Improving Patient Outcomes in the Dual Crises of Climate Change and COVID-19: Proceedings of the Third Annual Clinical Climate Change Meeting, January 8, 2021.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {63}, number = {11}, pages = {e813-e818}, pmid = {34354022}, issn = {1536-5948}, support = {R01 MD013310/MD/NIMHD NIH HHS/United States ; R24 ES028522/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES023515/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01TS000296/ACL/ACL HHS/United States ; K23 HL135349/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; UL1 TR001433/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 ES013744/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 ES030717/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 TS000296/TS/ATSDR CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Pandemics ; *Racism ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {The tremendous global toll of the COVID-19 pandemic does not fall equally on all populations. Indeed, this crisis has exerted more severe impacts on the most vulnerable communities, spotlighting the continued consequences of longstanding structural, social, and healthcare inequities. This disparity in COVID-19 parallels the unequal health consequences of climate change, whereby underlying inequities perpetuate adverse health outcomes disproportionately among vulnerable populations. As these two crises continue to unfold, there is an urgent need for healthcare practitioners to identify and implement solutions to mitigate adverse health outcomes, especially in the face of global crises. To support this need, the 2021 Clinical Climate Change Conference held a virtual meeting to discuss the implications of the convergence of the climate crisis and COVID-19, particularly for vulnerable patient populations and the clinicians who care for them. Presenters and panelists provided evidence-based solutions to help health professionals improve and adapt their practice to these evolving scenarios. Together, participants explored the community health system and national solutions to reduce the impacts of COVID-19 and the climate crisis, to promote community advocacy, and foster new partnerships between community and healthcare leaders to combat systemic racism and achieve a more just and equitable society.}, }
@article {pmid34351654, year = {2022}, author = {Patel, RR and Dickson, RJL}, title = {Could COVID-19 mark a turning point for global action on climate change?.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {33}, number = {2}, pages = {320-323}, pmid = {34351654}, issn = {2201-1617}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Health Status ; Humans ; }, abstract = {COVID-19 and climate change are both threats of immense proportions, however, the differing perception of climate change as far-off, projected and unpredictable, persists as a marked barrier to global action. COVID-19 is increasing awareness of the connection between human actions and environmental consequences. The current slowdown of fossil fuel use has given a glimpse of the quitter, cleaner and more caring world that effective climate change could also achieve. Decisions made in coming months can either "lock in" economic development patterns that will do permanent and escalating damage to the ecological systems, or, if wisely taken, can promote a healthier and greener world.}, }
@article {pmid34351488, year = {2022}, author = {Chaudhry, S and Sidhu, GPS}, title = {Climate change regulated abiotic stress mechanisms in plants: a comprehensive review.}, journal = {Plant cell reports}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {1-31}, pmid = {34351488}, issn = {1432-203X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; *Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is identified as a major threat to survival of natural ecosystems. Climate change is a dynamic, multifaceted system of alterations in environmental conditions that affect abiotic and biotic components of the world. It results in alteration in environmental conditions such as heat waves, intensity of rainfall, CO2 concentration and temperature that lead to rise in new pests, weeds and pathogens. Climate change is one of the major constraints limiting plant growth and development worldwide. It impairs growth, disturbs photosynthesis, and reduces physiological responses in plants. The variations in global climate have gained the attention of researchers worldwide, as these changes negatively affect the agriculture by reducing crop productivity and food security. With this background, this review focuses on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, drought and salinity on the morphology, physiology and biochemistry of plants. Furthermore, this paper outlines an overview on the reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and their impact on the biochemical and molecular status of plants with increased climatic variations. Also additionally, different tolerance strategies adopted by plants to combat environmental adversities have been discussed.}, }
@article {pmid34351372, year = {2022}, author = {Pfeilsticker, TR and Jones, RC and Steane, DA and Harrison, PA and Vaillancourt, RE and Potts, BM}, title = {Expansion of the rare Eucalyptus risdonii under climate change through hybridization with a closely related species despite hybrid inferiority.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {129}, number = {1}, pages = {1-14}, pmid = {34351372}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; Climate Change ; *Eucalyptus/genetics ; Hybridization, Genetic ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hybridization is increasingly recognized as an integral part of the dynamics of species range expansion and contraction. Thus, it is important to understand the reproductive barriers between co-occurring species. Extending previous studies that argued that the rare Eucalyptus risdonii was expanding into the range of the surrounding E. amygdalina by both seed and pollen dispersal, we here investigate the long-term fitness of both species and their hybrids and whether expansion is continuing.<br><br>METHODS: We assessed the survival of phenotypes representing a continuum between the two pure species in a natural hybrid swarm after 29 years, along with seedling recruitment. The performance of pure species as well as of artificial and natural hybrids was also assessed over 28 years in a common garden trial.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: In the hybrid zone, E. amygdalina adults showed greater mortality than E. risdonii, and the current seedling cohort is still dominated by E. risdonii phenotypes. Morphologically intermediate individuals appeared to be the least fit. Similar results were observed after growing artificial first-generation and natural hybrids alongside pure species families in a common garden trial. Here, the survival, reproduction, health and growth of the intermediate hybrids were significantly less than those of either pure species, consistent with hybrid inferiority, although this did not manifest until later reproductive ages. Among the variable progeny of natural intermediate hybrids, the most E. risdonii-like phenotypes were the most fit.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study contributes to the increasing number of reports of hybrid inferiority in Eucalyptus, suggesting that post-zygotic barriers contribute to the maintenance of species integrity even between closely related species. However, with fitness rapidly recovered following backcrossing, it is argued that hybridization can still be an important evolutionary process, in the present case appearing to contribute to the range expansion of the rare E. risdonii in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34347463, year = {2021}, author = {Rue, GP and McKnight, DM}, title = {Enhanced Rare Earth Element Mobilization in a Mountain Watershed of the Colorado Mineral Belt with Concomitant Detection in Aquatic Biota: Increasing Climate Change-Driven Degradation to Water Quality.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {55}, number = {21}, pages = {14378-14388}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.1c02958}, pmid = {34347463}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Biota ; Climate Change ; Colorado ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Metals, Rare Earth/analysis ; Minerals ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {In the western USA, one legacy of historic mining is drainage of acidic, metal-rich water generated by exposure to oxygen of sulfide minerals in mine workings, referred to as acid mine drainage (AMD). Streams receiving AMD and natural acid rock drainage (ARD) have a low pH, high dissolved metal concentrations, and extensive streambed oxide deposits. Recently, enhanced ARD generation in the Snake River watershed in the Rocky Mountains has been shown to be associated with warmer summer air temperatures, which has been attributed to expanding weathering fronts that promote oxidation due to earlier drying of shallow soils. In mountain watersheds where complex orogeny disseminated minerals throughout the landscape, weathering processes may also mobilize rare earth elements (REEs). We report that in the Snake River REEs are currently distributed in streams at concentrations ranging from 1 to 100 μg/L. Further, analysis of archived sample indicates that REE increases over time are also associated with increased summer air temperatures. In downstream reaches where the Snake River discharges into a water supply reservoir, colloidal and particulate metal oxides are abundant and sorptive processes may influence REE speciation. We also show that REEs accumulate in benthic invertebrates at concentrations comparable to toxic metals associated with ARD.}, }
@article {pmid34345986, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, JM and Borazon, EQ and Muñoz, KE}, title = {Critical problems associated with climate change: a systematic review and meta-analysis of Philippine fisheries research.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {36}, pages = {49425-49433}, pmid = {34345986}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; Philippines ; }, abstract = {This paper proposes to analyze the scientific production on climate change and fisheries in the Philippine context. This research theme was chosen considering the continuous increase in scientific studies related to climate change and fisheries and will therefore help in directing researchers on future directions for research to aid in addressing critical issues in the Philippine fisheries. A total of 69 search articles were extracted using the set criteria, indexed in Web of Science, and Scopus, covering the period from 1960 to 2020. After careful screening for eligibility, twenty-seven full-text articles were chosen for qualitative synthesis. Among the literature reviewed, research foci were categorized into four: impacts assessment (56% or 15 studies) followed by management (22% or 6 studies), adaptation (15% or 4 studies), and perception (7% or 2 studies), and main themes were categorized into four: resource management (59%), economy and livelihood (19%), governance and stakeholder participation (11%), and community marginalization (11%). This review contributes to the literature by identifying research potentials and suggesting a prescriptive approach to Philippine fisheries and climate change studies.}, }
@article {pmid34345659, year = {2021}, author = {Wilke, C}, title = {Climate Change Could Alter Undersea Chemical Communication.}, journal = {ACS central science}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {1091-1094}, doi = {10.1021/acscentsci.1c00819}, pmid = {34345659}, issn = {2374-7943}, }
@article {pmid34345158, year = {2021}, author = {Petersen, K and Kraus, D and Calanca, P and Semenov, MA and Butterbach-Bahl, K and Kiese, R}, title = {Dynamic simulation of management events for assessing impacts of climate change on pre-alpine grassland productivity.}, journal = {European journal of agronomy : the journal of the European Society for Agronomy}, volume = {128}, number = {}, pages = {None}, pmid = {34345158}, issn = {1161-0301}, abstract = {The productivity of permanent temperate cut grasslands is mainly driven by weather, soil characteristics, botanical composition and management. To adapt management to climate change, adjusting the cutting dates to reflect earlier onset of growth and expansion of the vegetation period is particularly important. Simulations of cut grassland productivity under climate change scenarios demands management settings to be dynamically derived from actual plant development rather than using static values derived from current management operations. This is even more important in the alpine region, where the predicted temperature increase is twice as high as compared to the global or Northern Hemispheric average. For this purpose, we developed a dynamic management module that provides timing of cutting and manuring events when running the biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. We derived the dynamic management rules from long-term harvest measurements and monitoring data collected at pre-alpine grassland sites located in S-Germany and belonging to the TERENO monitoring network. We applied the management module for simulations of two grassland sites covering the period 2011-2100 and driven by scenarios that reflect the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 and evaluated yield developments of different management regimes. The management module was able to represent timing of current management operations in high agreement with several years of field observations (r[2] > 0.88). Even more, the shift of the first cutting dates scaled to a +1 °C temperature increase simulated with the climate change scenarios (-9.1 to -17.1 days) compared well to the shift recorded by the German Weather Service (DWD) in the study area from 1991-2016 (-9.4 to -14.0 days). In total, the shift in cutting dates and expansion of the growing season resulted in 1-2 additional cuts per year until 2100. Thereby, climate change increased yields of up to 6 % and 15 % in the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios with highest increases mainly found for dynamically adapted grassland management going along with increasing fertilization rates. In contrast, no or only minor yield increases were associated with simulations restricted to fertilization rates of 170 kg N ha[-1] yr[-1] as required by national legislations. Our study also shows that yields significantly decreased in drought years, when soil moisture is limiting plant growth but due to comparable high precipitation and water holding capacity of soils, this was observed mainly in the RCP 8.5 scenario in the last decades of the century.}, }
@article {pmid34343428, year = {2021}, author = {Orlińska-Woźniak, P and Szalińska, E and Jakusik, E and Bojanowski, D and Wilk, P}, title = {Biomass Production Potential in a River under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {55}, number = {16}, pages = {11113-11124}, pmid = {34343428}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Phosphorus/analysis ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Excessive production of biomass, in times of intensification of agriculture and climate change, is again becoming one of the biggest environmental issues. Identification of sources and effects of this phenomenon in a river catchment in the space-time continuum has been supported by advanced environmental modules combined on a digital platform (Macromodel DNS/SWAT). This tool enabled the simulation of nutrient loads and chlorophyll "a" for the Nielba River catchment (central-western Poland) for the biomass production potential (defined here as a TN:TP ratio) analysis. Major differences have been observed between sections of the Nielba River with low biomass production in the upper part, controlled by TN:TP ratios over 65, and high chlorophyll "a" concentrations in the lower part, affected by biomass transport for the flow-through lakes. Under the long and short-term RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, this pattern will be emphasized. The obtained results showed that unfavorable biomass production potential will be maintained in the upper riverine sections due to a further increase in phosphorus loads induced by precipitation growth. Precipitation alone will increase biomass production, while precipitation combined with temperature can even enhance this production in the existing hot spots.}, }
@article {pmid34342929, year = {2021}, author = {Jenouvrier, S and Che-Castaldo, J and Wolf, S and Holland, M and Labrousse, S and LaRue, M and Wienecke, B and Fretwell, P and Barbraud, C and Greenwald, N and Stroeve, J and Trathan, PN}, title = {The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {20}, pages = {5008-5029}, pmid = {34342929}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Extinction, Biological ; Ice Cover ; *Spheniscidae ; }, abstract = {Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate-dependent meta-population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.}, }
@article {pmid34341937, year = {2022}, author = {Habibullah, MS and Din, BH and Tan, SH and Zahid, H}, title = {Impact of climate change on biodiversity loss: global evidence.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {1073-1086}, pmid = {34341937}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Endangered Species ; }, abstract = {The present study investigates the impact of climate change on biodiversity loss using global data consisting of 115 countries. In this study, we measure biodiversity loss using data on the total number of threatened species of amphibians, birds, fishes, mammals, mollusks, plants, and reptiles. The data were compiled from the Red List published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). For climate change variables, we have included temperature, precipitation, and the number of natural disaster occurrences. As for the control variable, we have considered governance indicator and the level of economic development. By employing ordinary least square with robust standard error and robust regression (M-estimation), our results suggest that all three climate change variables - temperature, precipitation, and the number of natural disasters occurrences - increase biodiversity loss. Higher economic development also impacted biodiversity loss positively. On the other hand, good governance such as the control of corruption, regulatory quality, and rule of law reduces biodiversity loss. Thus, practicing good governance, promoting conservation of the environment, and the control of greenhouse gasses would able to mitigate biodiversity loss.}, }
@article {pmid34339696, year = {2022}, author = {O'Brien, AM and Lins, TF and Yang, Y and Frederickson, ME and Sinton, D and Rochman, CM}, title = {Microplastics shift impacts of climate change on a plant-microbe mutualism: Temperature, CO2, and tire wear particles.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {203}, number = {}, pages = {111727}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.111727}, pmid = {34339696}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Anthropogenic Effects ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; *Microbiota ; *Microplastics ; Plastics ; Symbiosis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic stressors can affect individual species and alter species interactions. Moreover, species interactions or the presence of multiple stressors can modify the stressor effects, yet most work focuses on single stressors and single species. Plant-microbe interactions are a class of species interactions on which ecosystems and agricultural systems depend, yet may be affected by multiple global change stressors. Here, we use duckweed and microbes from its microbiome to model responses of interacting plants and microbes to multiple stressors: climate change and tire wear particles. Climate change is occurring globally, and microplastic tire wear particles from roads now reach many ecosystems. We paired perpendicular gradients of temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) treatments with factorial manipulation of leachate from tire wear particles and duckweed microbiomes. We found that tire leachate and warmer temperatures enhanced duckweed and microbial growth, but caused effects of microbes on duckweed to become negative. However, induced negative effects of microbes were less than additive with warming and leachate. Without tire leachate, we observed that higher CO2 and temperature induced positive correlations between duckweed and microbial growth, which can strengthen mutualisms. In contrast, with tire leachate, growth correlations were never positive, and shifted negative at lower CO2, again suggesting leachate disrupts this plant-microbiome mutualism. In summary, our results demonstrate that multiple interacting stressors can affect multiple interacting species, and that leachate from tire wear particles could potentially disrupt plant-microbe mutualisms.}, }
@article {pmid34339612, year = {2022}, author = {Van Lange, PAM and Rand, DG}, title = {Human Cooperation and the Crises of Climate Change, COVID-19, and Misinformation.}, journal = {Annual review of psychology}, volume = {73}, number = {}, pages = {379-402}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-psych-020821-110044}, pmid = {34339612}, issn = {1545-2085}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Communication ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {Contemporary society is facing many social dilemmas-including climate change, COVID-19, and misinformation-characterized by a conflict between short-term self-interest and longer-term collective interest. The climate crisis requires paying costs today to reduce climate-related harms and risks that we face in the future. The COVID-19 crisis requires the less vulnerable to pay costs to benefit the more vulnerable in the face of great uncertainty. The misinformation crisis requires investing effort to assess truth and abstain from spreading attractive falsehoods. Addressing these crises requires an understanding of human cooperation. To that end, we present (a) an overview of mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation, including mechanisms based on similarity and interaction; (b) a discussion of how reputation can incentivize cooperation via conditional cooperation and signaling; and (c) a review of social preferences that undergird the proximate psychology of cooperation, including positive regard for others, parochialism, and egalitarianism. We discuss the three focal crises facing our society through the lens of cooperation, emphasizing how cooperation research can inform our efforts to address them.}, }
@article {pmid34339088, year = {2021}, author = {Prichard, SJ and Hessburg, PF and Hagmann, RK and Povak, NA and Dobrowski, SZ and Hurteau, MD and Kane, VR and Keane, RE and Kobziar, LN and Kolden, CA and North, M and Parks, SA and Safford, HD and Stevens, JT and Yocom, LL and Churchill, DJ and Gray, RW and Huffman, DW and Lake, FK and Khatri-Chhetri, P}, title = {Adapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: 10 common questions.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {e02433}, pmid = {34339088}, issn = {1939-5582}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Fires ; Forests ; North America ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post-fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short-term risks and uncertainties, the long-term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.}, }
@article {pmid34339086, year = {2021}, author = {Hessburg, PF and Prichard, SJ and Hagmann, RK and Povak, NA and Lake, FK}, title = {Wildfire and climate change adaptation of western North American forests: a case for intentional management.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {e02432}, pmid = {34339086}, issn = {1939-5582}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Fires ; Forests ; North America ; Trees ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Forest landscapes across western North America (wNA) have experienced extensive changes over the last two centuries, while climatic warming has become a global reality over the last four decades. Resulting interactions between historical increases in forested area and density and recent rapid warming, increasing insect mortality, and wildfire burned areas, are now leading to substantial abrupt landscape alterations. These outcomes are forcing forest planners and managers to identify strategies that can modify future outcomes that are ecologically and/or socially undesirable. Past forest management, including widespread harvest of fire- and climate-tolerant large old trees and old forests, fire exclusion (both Indigenous and lightning ignitions), and highly effective wildfire suppression have contributed to the current state of wNA forests. These practices were successful at meeting short-term demands, but they match poorly to modern realities. Hagmann et al. review a century of observations and multi-scale, multi-proxy, research evidence that details widespread changes in forested landscapes and wildfire regimes since the influx of European colonists. Over the preceding 10 millennia, large areas of wNA were already settled and proactively managed with intentional burning by Indigenous tribes. Prichard et al. then review the research on management practices historically applied by Indigenous tribes and currently applied by some managers to intentionally manage forests for resilient conditions. They address 10 questions surrounding the application and relevance of these management practices. Here, we highlight the main findings of both papers and offer recommendations for management. We discuss progress paralysis that often occurs with strict adherence to the precautionary principle; offer insights for dealing with the common problem of irreducible uncertainty and suggestions for reframing management and policy direction; and identify key knowledge gaps and research needs.}, }
@article {pmid34338923, year = {2021}, author = {Macfarlane, RA}, title = {Wild Laboratories of Climate Change: Plants, Phenology, and Global Warming, 1955-1980.}, journal = {Journal of the history of biology}, volume = {54}, number = {2}, pages = {311-340}, pmid = {34338923}, issn = {1573-0387}, abstract = {Phenologists track the seasonal behavior of plants and animals in response to climatic change. During the second half of the twentieth century, phenologists developed a large-scale project to monitor the flowering time of the common lilac (Syringa vulgaris) across the United States. By the 1960s, this approach offered a potential plant-based indicator of anthropogenic climate change, a biological signal amidst the emerging narrative of increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As a tangible representation of changes in climate-warmer temperatures lead to earlier blooming-phenology proved highly legible to scientists, politicians, and laypeople. Yet, as phenology gained broader repute in the 1960s, both in agricultural stations and as a component program of the International Biological Program (IBP), it struggled to align itself epistemically with the regnant disciplinary assumptions of mid-century ecology. Operating in the hinterlands between laboratory and field, biology and meteorology, ecological theory and agronomy practice, phenologists challenged prevailing notions of the model organism and what it meant to study biology in the field. Rebranding the discipline as a component of ecosystem modeling, scientists successfully brought phenology within the purview of mainstream ecology. In so doing, however, they obscured its climate-relevant meteorological character and stymied the development of a biological narrative of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34337676, year = {2021}, author = {Kuang, YH and Fang, YF and Lin, SC and Tsai, SF and Yang, ZW and Li, CP and Huang, SH and Hechanova, SL and Jena, KK and Chuang, WP}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on the Resistance of Rice Near-Isogenic Lines with Resistance Genes Against Brown Planthopper.}, journal = {Rice (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {64}, pmid = {34337676}, issn = {1939-8425}, support = {107-2311-B-002-018-MY3//Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan/ ; NTU-109L7864//National Taiwan University/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impact of climate change on insect resistance genes is elusive. Hence, we investigated the responses of rice near-isogenic lines (NILs) that carry resistance genes against brown planthopper (BPH) under different environmental conditions.<br><br>RESULTS: We tested these NILs under three environmental settings (the atmospheric temperature with corresponding carbon dioxide at the ambient, year 2050 and year 2100) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change prediction. Comparing between different environments, two of nine NILs that carried a single BPH-resistant gene maintained their resistance under the environmental changes, whereas two of three NILs showed gene pyramiding with two maintained BPH resistance genes despite the environmental changes. In addition, two NILs (NIL-BPH17 and NIL-BPH20) were examined in their antibiosis and antixenosis effects under these environmental changes. BPH showed different responses to these two NILs, where the inhibitory effect of NIL-BPH17 on the BPH growth and development was unaffected, while NIL-BPH20 may have lost its resistance during the environmental changes.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that BPH resistance genes could be affected by climate change. NIL-BPH17 has a strong inhibitory effect on BPH feeding on phloem and would be unaffected by environmental changes, while NIL-BPH20 would lose its ability during the environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid34335387, year = {2021}, author = {Choudhary, G and Dutt, V}, title = {Experience in a Climate Simulator: Influence of Probability Function and Feedback on Decisions Against Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {674892}, pmid = {34335387}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Research indicates that people continue to exhibit "wait-and-see" preferences toward climate change, despite constant attempts to raise awareness about its cataclysmic effects. Experiencing climatic catastrophes via simulation tools has been found to affect the perception of people regarding climate change and promote pro-environmental behaviors. However, not much is known about how experiential feedback and the probability of climate change in a simulation influence the decisions of people. We developed a web-based tool called Interactive Climate Change Simulator (ICCS) to study the impact of different probabilities of climate change and the availability of feedback on the monetary actions (adaptation or mitigation) taken by individuals. A total of 160 participants from India voluntarily played ICCS across four between-subject conditions (N = 40 in each condition). The conditions differed based on the probability of climate change (low or high) and availability of feedback (absent or present). Participants made mitigation and adaptation decisions in ICCS over multiple years and faced monetary consequences of their decisions. There was a significant increase in mitigation actions against climate change when the feedback was present compared to when it was absent. The mitigation and adaptation investments against climate change were not significantly affected by the probability of climate change. The interaction between probability of climate consequences and availability of feedback was significant: In the presence of feedback, the high probability of climate change resulted in higher mitigation and adaptation investments against climate change. Overall, the experience gained in the ICCS tool helped alleviate peoples' "wait-and-see" preferences and increased the monetary investments to counter climate change. Simulation tools like ICCS have the potential to increase people's understanding of climatic disasters and can act as a useful aid for educationalists and policymakers.}, }
@article {pmid34334851, year = {2022}, author = {Wade, B and Griffiths, A}, title = {Exploring the Cognitive Foundations of Managerial (Climate) Change Decisions.}, journal = {Journal of business ethics : JBE}, volume = {181}, number = {1}, pages = {15-40}, pmid = {34334851}, issn = {0167-4544}, abstract = {Climate change is a complex, multilevel challenge with implications of failure unimaginable for current and future generations. However, despite the Paris Agreement supporting the imperative for action in an atmosphere of scientific consensus, organisations are failing to take the decisive action required. We argue that this lack of organisational action needs to be addressed by examining the cognitive foundations of managerial decisions on climate change and sustainability. A systematic review of research on cognition, sensemaking and managerial interpretation where it is linked to climate change or sustainability is presented within this article. The results detail a multilevel analysis highlighting key themes and the core concepts from the literature including factors shaping the cognitive process, to elucidate reasons for inaction and potential for promoting change. Through this research, an integrated model is presented demonstrating the interaction of factors, cognitive processes and outcomes. Based on this analysis, potential reasons for inaction are proposed and countered by three potential solutions linked to leadership, social norms and structural reform.}, }
@article {pmid34333747, year = {2022}, author = {Zhao, H and Wang, Z and Li, X and Chu, Z and Zhao, C and Zhao, F}, title = {Research on the evolution characteristics of future climate change in West Liao River Basin.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {509-517}, pmid = {34333747}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {41665007//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; HQ2020020//Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In order to explore the characteristics of climate change in the future in the West Liao River Basin under the background of future climate change, this study analyzed the changes of the annual average temperature, annual precipitation, and annual evapotranspiration from 2021 to 2060 in the West Liao River Basin under the scenarios of RCP4.5 (low emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) originated from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. The results show that (1) under the two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the annual average temperature in the West Liao River Basin is 7.67 °C and 8.12 °C, respectively, and the temperature shows an upward trend; the mutation years of RCP4.5 are more than those of RCP8.5; the annual average temperature of RCP4.5 is controlled by periods of 22 years and 29 years, while RCP8.5 has only one main period of 29 years; the contribution rates of the first eigenvector variance of EOF are 97.12% and 96.64%, respectively, and the change types are the same. The sensitive areas of variation are in the southwest and western regions respectively. (2) The annual precipitation in the West Liao River Basin under the two scenarios are 815.78mm and 798.64mm, with tendency rates of -20.51/mm/10a and 17.26/mm/10a; the mutation years in the West Liao River Basin under scenario RCP4.5 are mostly occurred in the 2030s and 2040s, while those under scenario RCP8.5 are mostly occurred in 2040s and 2050s; under scenario RCP4.5, the change is mainly controlled by shorter periods, while under scenario RCP8.5, the change is controlled by two main longer periods of 19 years and 28 years. Under the two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the cumulative contribution rates of the variance of the first three eigenvectors of the EOF in the West Liao River Basin are 42% and 90.23% respectively. The first eigenvector is consistent, and the second and third eigenvectors are the reverse type of South (East)-North (West). (3) The results show that the annual evapotranspiration in the West Liao River Basin under the scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is 597.79mm and 618.45mm, respectively, and the trend rates are 18.20/mm/10a and 4.48/mm/10a; under scenario RCP4.5, the change is controlled by periods of 23 years and 29 years, while under scenarios RCP8.5, the change is controlled by periods of 18 years and 28 years; the contribution rates of the first eigenvector variance of EOF are 91.05% and 89.51% respectively, and they are consistent distribution, and their sensitive areas are in the southeast and central regions respectively.}, }
@article {pmid34331647, year = {2022}, author = {Chauhan, D and Thiyaharajan, M and Pandey, A and Singh, N and Singh, V and Sen, S and Pandey, R}, title = {Climate change water vulnerability and adaptation mechanism in a Himalayan City, Nainital, India.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {29}, number = {57}, pages = {85904-85921}, pmid = {34331647}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {M-65022/3/2018 (NWM)//Ministry of Water Resources/ ; }, mesh = {Humans ; *Climate Change ; Cities ; *Water ; Water Supply ; Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Urban water management is a growing concern in India's rapidly urbanizing cities. Population growth and climatic variability are exuberating the impact on surface and underground water supply. Understanding the causes and the extent of water vulnerability is required for developing effective strategies for water insecurities. This study attempts to assess the water vulnerability across different wards of a touristic city of Himalaya-Nainital using IPCC approach considering the three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Seven indicators, mostly spatial, i.e. edaphic (aspect, elevation) and climatic (land surface temperature) besides some water infrastructural (distance to water distribution) and population, were considered for development of vulnerability index using Analytical Hierarchy Process for assigning weights. These indicators were simple to extract and easy to obtain and mostly available from secondary sources and were capable to account the variability at micro-level. Moreover, the current adaptation mechanisms for water security were also derived through conducting surveys by randomly selecting households across the wards. Staff House and Harinagar wards were the most vulnerable. The survey results that the adaptation mechanism should be managed at individual and organization level. Policy measures such as optimum use of water, grey water recycling, spring rejuvenation, rain water harvesting, and leakage proof infrastructure with intervention of new technologies, may be adopted and implemented for reducing the water vulnerability in the city along with the public participation. The appropriate measures for water vulnerability would further provide support for improving the facilities to the tourists in the city thereby improved economic opportunities to the locals.}, }
@article {pmid34331639, year = {2021}, author = {Chang, HS and Su, Q and Chen, YS}, title = {Establish an assessment framework for risk and investment under climate change from the perspective of climate justice.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {46}, pages = {66435-66447}, pmid = {34331639}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Investments ; *Social Justice ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {Under the threat of climate change, the issue of climate justice has gradually received international attention in recent years. Climate justice focuses on the unfair phenomena in various regions caused by climate change. At present, some countries are facing "double inequality," that is, the reverse and separate distribution of "natural hazard" and "social resilience" and that of "risk" and "responsible input." Therefore, this study constructed a research framework for evaluating climate justice. The framework reconstructed the indicator system and conducted verification analysis on the research issues of climate justice, including the spatial correlation between "natural hazard" and "social resilience" and that between "risk" and "responsible input," and uses the "bivariate local indicators of spatial association" method to detect the regional current situation and test the justice after government's resource investment. In this way, four-quadrant spatial characteristics were obtained (high-high, low-low, high-low, and low-high districts) to identify the areas with the characteristics of climate justice. This study used Taiwan as the research area. The results show that Taiwan currently has only 7 regions with "double inequality." Therefore, only a small part of the region has "double inequality." The results can be used as the basis for future government's resource input and the allocation of climate responsibility.}, }
@article {pmid34331105, year = {2021}, author = {Haynes, KR and Friedman, J and Stella, JC and Leopold, DJ}, title = {Assessing climate change tolerance and the niche breadth-range size hypothesis in rare and widespread alpine plants.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {196}, number = {4}, pages = {1233-1245}, pmid = {34331105}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {*Asteraceae ; *Climate Change ; Seedlings ; Seeds ; }, abstract = {Species range limits often reflect niche limits, especially for ranges constrained along elevational gradients. In this study, we used elevational transplant experiments to test niche breadth and functional trait plasticity in early life stages of narrow-range Nabalus boottii and broad-range N. trifoliolatus plants to assess their climate change vulnerability and the applicability of the niche breadth-range size hypothesis to explain their range size differences. We discovered that the earliest life stage (seed germination) was the most vulnerable and the two alpine taxa, N. boottii and N. trifoliolatus var. nanus, were unable to establish at the warm low elevation site, however non-alpine N. trifoliolatus established at all three elevations, including at the high elevation (beyond-range) site. Niche limits in seed emergence may therefore contribute to range size in these taxa. In contrast, when seedlings were planted we found substantial functional trait plasticity in later life stages (average 44% across ten traits) that was highly similar for all Nabalus taxa, suggesting that differences in plasticity do not generate niche differences or restrict range size in the focal taxa. While this substantial plasticity may help buffer populations faced by climate change, the inability of the alpine taxa to establish at lower elevation sites suggests that their populations may still decline due to decreased seed recruitment under ongoing climate change. We therefore recommend monitoring alpine Nabalus populations, particularly globally rare N. boottii.}, }
@article {pmid34330962, year = {2021}, author = {Barnard, PL and Dugan, JE and Page, HM and Wood, NJ and Hart, JAF and Cayan, DR and Erikson, LH and Hubbard, DM and Myers, MR and Melack, JM and Iacobellis, SF}, title = {Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {15560}, pmid = {34330962}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach "tipping points," at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.}, }
@article {pmid34330943, year = {2021}, author = {Yokohata, T and Iwahana, G and Sone, T and Saito, K and Ishizaki, NN and Kubo, T and Oguma, H and Uchida, M}, title = {Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {15518}, pmid = {34330943}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Permafrost is known to occur in high mountainous areas such as the Daisetsu Mountains in Japan, which are located at the southernmost limit of the permafrost distribution in the world. In this study, areas with climatic conditions suitable for sustaining permafrost in the Daisetsu Mountains are projected using bias-corrected and downscaled climate model outputs and statistical relationships between surface air temperatures and permafrost areas. Using freezing and thawing indices, the size of the area in the Daisetsu Mountains where climatic conditions were suitable for permafrost were estimated to be approximately 150 km[2] in 2010. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, this area is projected to decrease to about 30 km[2] by 2050 and it is projected to disappear by around 2070. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the area is projected to decrease to approximately 20 km[2] by 2100. The degradation of mountain permafrost could potentially affect the stability of trekking trails due to slope displacement, and it may also have deleterious effects on current alpine ecosystems. It is therefore important to accurately monitor changes in the mountain ecosystem environment and to implement measures to adapt to an environment that is projected to change significantly in the future.}, }
@article {pmid34328878, year = {2021}, author = {Wu, L and Ma, X and Dou, X and Zhu, J and Zhao, C}, title = {Impacts of climate change on vegetation phenology and net primary productivity in arid Central Asia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {796}, number = {}, pages = {149055}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149055}, pmid = {34328878}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Asia ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Vegetation is highly sensitive to climate changes in arid regions. The relationship between vegetation and climate changes can be effectively characterized by vegetation phenology. However, few studies have examined the vegetation phenology and productivity changes in arid Central Asia (ACA). The vegetation phenological information of ACA was extracted using MODIS NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, and the dynamics of vegetation phenological changes under spatiotemporal variations were quantitatively assessed. Moreover, the impacts of climate change on vegetation phenology and net primary productivity were analyzed by combining meteorological data with that of MODIS NPP (Net Primary Productivity) during the same period. The results demonstrated that the start of the season (SOS) of vegetation in the study was concentrated from mid-February to mid-April, while the end of the season (EOS) was concentrated from early October to mid-December. The length of growing season (LOS) ranged from 6 to 10 months. The SOS of vegetation was gradually postponed at a rate of 0.16 d·year[-1]. The EOS advanced at a rate of 0.69 d·year[-1]. The LOS was gradually shortened at a rate of 0.89 d·year[-1]. For each per 1000 m increase in elevation, the SOS of vegetation was postponed by 12.40 d; the EOS advanced by 0.40 d, and the LOS was shortened by 11.70 d. For the impacts of climate changes on vegetation phenology and NPP, the SOS of vegetation phenology negatively correlated with temperature but positively correlated with precipitation and NPP. The EOS and LOS positively correlated with temperature but negatively with precipitation and NPP. Results indicated that the SOS was not moved ahead but was delayed, while the EOS advanced rather than being postponed under climate change. These results can offer new insights on the phenological response to climate change in arid regions and on non-systematic changes in phenology under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid34326859, year = {2021}, author = {Rodrigues, MF and Cogni, R}, title = {Genomic Responses to Climate Change: Making the Most of the Drosophila Model.}, journal = {Frontiers in genetics}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {676218}, pmid = {34326859}, issn = {1664-8021}, abstract = {It is pressing to understand how animal populations evolve in response to climate change. We argue that new sequencing technologies and the use of historical samples are opening unprecedented opportunities to investigate genome-wide responses to changing environments. However, there are important challenges in interpreting the emerging findings. First, it is essential to differentiate genetic adaptation from phenotypic plasticity. Second, it is extremely difficult to map genotype, phenotype, and fitness. Third, neutral demographic processes and natural selection affect genetic variation in similar ways. We argue that Drosophila melanogaster, a classical model organism with decades of climate adaptation research, is uniquely suited to overcome most of these challenges. In the near future, long-term time series genome-wide datasets of D. melanogaster natural populations will provide exciting opportunities to study adaptation to recent climate change and will lay the groundwork for related research in non-model systems.}, }
@article {pmid34326411, year = {2021}, author = {Bento, VA and Ribeiro, AFS and Russo, A and Gouveia, CM and Cardoso, RM and Soares, PMM}, title = {The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {15484}, pmid = {34326411}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972-2000) and mid-of-century (2042-2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid34326219, year = {2021}, author = {Abrahms, B}, title = {Human-wildlife conflict under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {373}, number = {6554}, pages = {484-485}, doi = {10.1126/science.abj4216}, pmid = {34326219}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Animals, Wild ; *Climate Change ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; *Natural Resources ; }, }
@article {pmid34324706, year = {2021}, author = {Gianoli, E and Molina-Montenegro, MA}, title = {Evolution of physiological performance in invasive plants under climate change.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {75}, number = {12}, pages = {3181-3190}, doi = {10.1111/evo.14314}, pmid = {34324706}, issn = {1558-5646}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Introduced Species ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to promote biological invasions. Invasive species often undergo adaptive evolution, but whether invasive species show greater evolutionary potential than their native counterparts under climate change has rarely been evaluated. We conducted experimental evolution trials comparing the evolution of physiological performance (light-saturated photosynthetic rate, Amax) of coexisting and closely related (1) invasive-native species pairs from Arid, Alpine, and Antarctic ecosystems, and (2) an invasive-naturalized species pair from a Mediterranean ecosystem differing in invasiveness. Experiments were conducted over three generations and under four environments of temperature and water availability resembling typical and climate change conditions in each ecosystem. Amax increased across generations for most species. Invasive species from Arid, Alpine, and Antarctic ecosystems showed similar, greater, and lesser evolution of Amax than their native counterparts, respectively. The Mediterranean invasive species showed greater evolution of Amax than its naturalized congener. Similar patterns were observed in all four experimental environments for each ecosystem, suggesting that comparable responses may be expected under climate change scenarios. All study species showed a positive association between Amax and reproductive output. Results suggest that invasive plants and their native (or naturalized) counterparts would show similar evolutionary responses of physiological performance to global warming and drought.}, }
@article {pmid34323843, year = {2021}, author = {Sun, G and Sun, M and Du, L and Zhang, Z and Wang, Z and Zhang, G and Nie, S and Xu, H and Wang, H}, title = {Ecological rice-cropping systems mitigate global warming - A meta-analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {789}, number = {}, pages = {147900}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147900}, pmid = {34323843}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Ecological rice-cropping systems (ERSs) are prosperous rice ecosystems that have a profound influence on global greenhouse (GHG) effects. However, the high variation in research results requires an accurate evaluation of the ERS effects. In this study, three typical ERS modes, rice-crayfish, rice-duck, and rice-fish were selected, and a meta-analysis was conducted using the data of 34 studies to comprehensively evaluate the effects of ERSs on GHG emissions, the global warming potential (GWP), and GHG intensity (GHGI). The results showed that the ERSs reduced CH4 emissions significantly (-12.5%), but increased N2O emissions by 11.3% as compared with traditional rice-cropping systems (TRSs). Further, ERSs have slightly lower GWP, rice yield, and GHGI values (6.5%, 5.5%, and 5.6%, respectively) than TRSs. The rice-crayfish and rice-duck modes significantly alleviated the GWP by 18.0% and 11.1%, respectively, whereas the rice-fish mode enhanced the GWP by 20.8%. Moreover, the rice-duck mode significantly reduced the GHGI by 17.2%, while the ricecrayfish and rice-fish modes increased the GHGI by 9.7% and 8.8%, respectively. Further, the ERSs significantly changed the dissolved oxygen concentration in the flood water as well as the Eh, dissolved organic carbon, and ammonium nitrogen in the soil, wherein the effect sizes of the ERSs on the GHG emissions were significantly correlated with their respective increase. Considering the net ecosystem economic budget and CO2 emissions equivalent/output, ERSs were found to be effective "green technologies". Further, we found that the rice-duck ERS was a good ecological ricecropping system for global warming mitigation. Our study provided new ideas for sustainable agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid34322228, year = {2020}, author = {Khouri, C and Roustit, M and Cracowski, JL}, title = {Impact of global warming on Raynaud's phenomenon: a modelling study.}, journal = {F1000Research}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {829}, pmid = {34322228}, issn = {2046-1402}, mesh = {Cold Temperature ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Raynaud Disease/epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Background: Raynaud's phenomenon is induced by excessive vasoconstriction of the peripheral microcirculation in response to environmental factors, essentially cold, but also stress or emotions. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the impact of global warming on the worldwide prevalence and severity of Raynaud's phenomenon over the 21 [st] century. Method: We first estimated the correlation between average temperature and prevalence and severity of Raynaud's phenomenon. Then, we mapped the prevalence and the severity of Raynaud's phenomenon worldwide at Christmas 1999 using historical data and, using climate projections from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, we predicted the prevalence and severity of Raynaud's phenomenon at Christmas 2099 according to four greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. Results: The prevalence of Raynaud's phenomenon in the general population is expected to decrease by 0.5% per degree Celsius increase. Furthermore, patients are expected to suffer from one less attack per week for each increase of 2.5 degrees Celsius. Conclusions: Our study shows that global warming may have a significant impact on the prevalence and the severity of Raynaud's phenomenon over the 21 [st] century. However, as expected, this will greatly depend on the level of greenhouse-gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid34321727, year = {2021}, author = {Tripathi, V and Akhtar, R and Preetha, GS}, title = {Perceptions Regarding Climate Change and its Health Impact: Reflections from a Community-Based Study in India.}, journal = {Indian journal of community medicine : official publication of Indian Association of Preventive &amp; Social Medicine}, volume = {46}, number = {2}, pages = {206-209}, pmid = {34321727}, issn = {0970-0218}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the climate change discourse, a body of scholarship focusing on how people perceive climate change and its impact is increasing. However, in the Indian context, such scholarship is limited.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to describe the perceptions of people on climate change and its health impacts, which were captured as part of a larger study.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional study was conducted in randomly selected 983 households in four districts spread across Madhya Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect the data.<br><br>RESULTS: For 72% of respondents, the perception was not related to climate change per se. Their perceptions were contextual and were based on the anomalies which are observed in the immediate weather conditions. The health impacts of climate change were also not understood at the first place, but with probing 64% of respondents were able to report seasonal diseases.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Perceptions of the people regarding climate change are more linked to their own experiences with their local weather conditions rather than the overall concept. This also explains their lack of comprehension about the health impact of climate change, but a sound understanding of seasonal diseases.}, }
@article {pmid34318424, year = {2021}, author = {Shobande, OA and Asongu, SA}, title = {Financial development, human capital development and climate change in East and Southern Africa.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {46}, pages = {65655-65675}, pmid = {34318424}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Africa, Southern ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Economic Development ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Africa is currently experiencing both financial and human development challenges. While several continents have advocated for financial development in order to acquire environmentally friendly machinery that produces less emissions and ensures long-term sustainability, Africa is still lagging behind the rest of the world. Similarly, Africa's human development has remained stagnant, posing a serious threat to climate change if not addressed. Building on the underpinnings of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis on the nexus between economic growth and environmental pollution, this study contributes to empirical research seeking to promote environmental sustainability as follows. First, it investigates the link between financial development, human capital development and climate change in East and Southern Africa. Second, six advanced panel techniques are used, and they include (1) cross-sectional dependency (CD) tests; (2) combined panel unit root tests; (3) combined panel cointegration tests; (4) panel VAR/VEC Granger causality tests; and (5) combined variance decomposition analysis based on Cholesky and generalised weights. Our finding shows that financial and human capital developments are important in reducing CO2 emissions and promoting environmental sustainability in East and Southern Africa.}, }
@article {pmid34316429, year = {2021}, author = {Ristroph, EB}, title = {Navigating climate change adaptation assistance for communities: a case study of Newtok Village, Alaska.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {329-340}, pmid = {34316429}, issn = {2190-6483}, abstract = {Climate change is significantly impacting Alaska Native Villages (federally recognized tribes) as well as other rural and place-based communities that wish to continue their traditional lifeways. While many communities are looking to state and federal governments for assistance with climate change and other emergencies, there are limits to assistance under the current political and legal framework. This article discusses strategies for climate change adaptation that Alaska Native Villages and similarly situated communities may be able to take on their own. The article acknowledges the limits to these strategies and the gaps likely to remain in adaptation assistance. The article considers the Native Village of Newtok, Alaska, which is relocating to another site as an adaptation to climate change, as a case study in navigating adaptation assistance. While each community is different, several factors that have helped Newtok may benefit other communities: strong leadership; unified community vision and policy; a local coordinator serving as a continued point of contact; strong capacity for grantwriting; trusted, reasonably priced consultants; professional accounting services; and a housing policy to ensure fairness.}, }
@article {pmid34316325, year = {2021}, author = {Gorris, ME and Neumann, JE and Kinney, PL and Sheahan, M and Sarofim, MC}, title = {Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Weather, climate, and society (Print)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {107-123}, pmid = {34316325}, issn = {1948-8327}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000-15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were $400,000 per case, and the annual average total cost was $3.9 billion per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost $620,000 per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change-attributable damages in the United States.}, }
@article {pmid34315914, year = {2021}, author = {Bærum, KM and Finstad, AG and Ulvan, EM and Haugen, TO}, title = {Population consequences of climate change through effects on functional traits of lentic brown trout in the sub-Arctic.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {15246}, pmid = {34315914}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Reproduction ; Trout/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate-induced plasticity in functional traits has received recent attention due to the immense importance phenotypic variation plays in population level responses. Here, we explore the effect of different climate-change scenarios on lentic populations of a freshwater ectotherm, the brown trout (Salmo trutta L.), through climate effects on functional traits. We first parameterize models of climate variables on growth, spawning probability and fecundity. The models are utilized to inform a dynamic age-structured projection matrix, enabling long-term population viability projections under climate and population density variation. Ambient temperature and winter conditions had a substantial effect on population growth rate. In general, warmer summer temperatures resulted in faster growth rates for young fish but ended in smaller size at age as fish got older. Increasing summer temperatures also induced maturation at younger age and smaller size. In addition, we found effects of first-year growth on later growth trajectories for a fish, indicating that environmental conditions experienced the first year will also influence size at age later in life. At the population level, increasing temperatures average (up to 4 °C increase in areas with mean summer temperature at approximately 12 °C) resulted in a positive effect on population growth rate (i.e. smaller but more fish) during climate simulations including increasing and more variable temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid34313070, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, WP and Hu, YY and Li, ZH and Feng, XP and Li, DW}, title = {Predicting suitable distribution areas of Juniperus przewalskii in Qinghai Province under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {7}, pages = {2514-2524}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202107.030}, pmid = {34313070}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Altitude ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Juniperus ; }, abstract = {Juniperus przewalskii is important for water and soil conservation. It is one of the native tree species suitable for afforestation and greening in high-cold and arid areas of Qinghai Province. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of J. przewalskii in Qinghai Province under the climate change scenario will provide theoretical guidance for its management, introduction, and cultivation. In this study, the current potential distribution of J. przewalskii was simulated firstly based on 88 effective distributional records from field investigation and data collection via Maxent model and ArcGIS spatial analysis. We analyzed dominant factors affecting the potential distribution of J. przewa-lskii by Jackknife test and correlation coefficient. The distribution of J. przewalskii under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) with the climate model data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP6) were predicted for 2061-2080. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the Maxent model was greater than 0.92, suggesting a good predictive performance. Under current climatic condition, the suitable distribution area of J. przewalskii was mainly located in the eastern part of Qinghai Province, with the suitable area accounted for 11.2% of the total. The dominant factors affecting the distribution of J. przewalskii were altitude, annual precipitation, the minimum temperature of coldest month, and slope, with a cumulative contribution rate of 85.9%. The suitable areas of J. przewalskii altered under the three future climate scenarios. The suitable areas would shrink under the SSP245 scenario and expand under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios. The sui-table area of J. przewalskii would have the most obvious expansion under the SSP126 climate situation, with the expanding areas being mainly located in Zeku County, the north-central part of Henan Mongolian Autonomous County, and the southeast of Qilian County. Under three climatic scenarios, the suitable area of J. przewalskii would gradually migrate to high altitudes, but without clear altitudinal and longitudinal shifts.}, }
@article {pmid34312856, year = {2021}, author = {}, title = {Effects of global warming on sex ratios in fishes.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {98}, number = {6}, pages = {1495}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.14805}, pmid = {34312856}, issn = {1095-8649}, }
@article {pmid34312853, year = {2021}, author = {McKenzie, DJ and Geffroy, B and Farrell, AP}, title = {Effects of global warming on fishes and fisheries.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {98}, number = {6}, pages = {1489-1492}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.14762}, pmid = {34312853}, issn = {1095-8649}, }
@article {pmid34307900, year = {2020}, author = {Symonds, P and Milner, J and Mohajeri, N and Aplin, J and Hale, J and J Lloyd, S and Fremont, H and Younkin, S and Shrubsole, C and Robertson, L and Taylor, J and Zimmermann, N and Wilkinson, P and Davies, M}, title = {A tool for assessing the climate change mitigation and health impacts of environmental policies: the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT).}, journal = {Wellcome open research}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {269}, pmid = {34307900}, issn = {2398-502X}, abstract = {Background: A growing number of cities, including Greater London, have set ambitious targets, including detailed policies and implementation plans, to reach global goals on sustainability, health, and climate change. Here we present a tool for a rapid assessment of the magnitude of impact of specific policy initiatives to reach these targets. The decision-support tool simultaneously quantifies the environmental and health impacts of specified selected policies. Methods: The 'Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT)' tool was applied to Greater London. CRAFT quantifies the effects of ten environmental policies on changes in (1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, (2) exposures to environmental hazards, (3) travel-related physical activity, and (4) mortality (the number of attributable deaths avoided in one typical year). Publicly available data and epidemiological evidence were used to make rapid quantitative estimates of these effects based on proportional reductions in GHG emissions and environmental exposures from current baseline levels and to compute the mortality impacts. Results: The CRAFT tool estimates that, of roughly 50,000 annual deaths in Greater London, the modelled hazards (PM 2.5 (from indoor and outdoor sources), outdoor NO 2, indoor radon, cold, overheating) and low travel-related physical activity are responsible for approximately 10,000 premature environment-related deaths. Implementing the selected polices could reduce the annual mortality number by about 20% (~1,900 deaths) by 2050. The majority of these deaths (1,700) may be avoided through increased uptake in active travel. Thus, out of ten environmental policies, the 'active travel' policy provides the greatest health benefit. Also, implementing the ten policies results in a GHG reduction of around 90%. Conclusions: The CRAFT tool quantifies the effects of city policies on reducing GHG emissions, decreasing environmental health hazards, and improving public health. The tool has potential value for policy makers through providing quantitative estimates of health impacts to support and prioritise policy options.}, }
@article {pmid34309964, year = {2021}, author = {Ma, S and Liu, D and Tian, Y and Fu, C and Li, J and Ju, P and Sun, P and Ye, Z and Liu, Y and Watanabe, Y}, title = {Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {20}, pages = {5310-5328}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15815}, pmid = {34309964}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {41861134037//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41876177//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41930534//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2018YFD0900902//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; }, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; *Global Warming ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Natural systems can undergo critical transitions, leading to substantial socioeconomic and ecological outcomes. "Ecological resilience" has been proposed to describe the capacity of natural systems to absorb external perturbation and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks. However, the mere application of ecological resilience in theoretical research and the lack of quantitative approaches present considerable obstacles for predicting critical transitions and understanding their mechanisms. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) in the Northwestern Pacific are characterized by great biodiversity and productivity, as well as remarkable warming in recent decades. However, no information is available on the critical transitions and ecological resilience of LMEs in response to warming. Therefore, we applied an integrated resilience assessment framework to fisheries catch data from seven LMEs covering a wide range of regions, from tropical to subarctic, in the Northwestern Pacific to identify critical transitions, assess ecological resilience, and reconstruct folded stability landscapes, with a specific focus on the effects of warming. The results provide evidence of the occurrence of critical transitions, with fold bifurcation and hysteresis in response to increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the seven LMEs. In addition, these LMEs show similarities and synchronies in structure variations and critical transitions forced by warming. Both dramatic increases in SST and small fluctuations at the corresponding thresholds may trigger critical transitions. Ecological resilience decreases when approaching the tipping points and is repainted as the LMEs shift to alternative stable states with different resilient dynamics. Folded stability landscapes indicate that the responses of LMEs to warming are discontinuous, which may be caused by the reorganization of LMEs as their sensitivity to warming changes. Our study clarifies the nonlinear responses of LMEs to anthropogenic warming and provides examples of quantifying ecological resilience in empirical systems at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales.}, }
@article {pmid34309958, year = {2021}, author = {Pita, I and Mouillot, D and Moullec, F and Shin, YJ}, title = {Contrasted patterns in climate change risk for Mediterranean fisheries.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {22}, pages = {5920-5933}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15814}, pmid = {34309958}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Fishes ; Humans ; Mediterranean Sea ; }, abstract = {Climate change is rapidly becoming one of the biggest threats to marine life, and its impacts have the potential to strongly affect fisheries upon which millions of people rely. This is particularly crucial for the Mediterranean Sea, which is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, one of the world's most overfished regions, and where temperatures are rising 25% faster than in the rest of the ocean on average. In this study, we calculated a vulnerability index for 100 species that compose 95% of the Mediterranean catches, through a trait-based approach. The Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology was subsequently used to assess the risks due to climate change of Mediterranean fisheries. We found that the northern Mediterranean fisheries target more vulnerable species than their southern counterparts. However, when combining this catch-based vulnerability with a suite of socio-economic parameters, north African countries stand out as the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Indeed, considering countries' exposure of the fisheries sector and their vulnerability to climate change, a sharp contrast between northern and southern Mediterranean appears, with Egypt and Tunisia scoring the highest risk. By integrating a trait-based approach on targeted marine species with socio-economic features, our analysis helps to better understand the ramifications of climate change consequences on Mediterranean fisheries and highlights the regions that could potentially be particularly affected.}, }
@article {pmid34306668, year = {2021}, author = {Vecchi, M and Kossi Adakpo, L and Dunn, RR and Nichols, LM and Penick, CA and Sanders, NJ and Rebecchi, L and Guidetti, R}, title = {The toughest animals of the Earth versus global warming: Effects of long-term experimental warming on tardigrade community structure of a temperate deciduous forest.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {14}, pages = {9856-9863}, pmid = {34306668}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Understanding how different taxa respond to global warming is essential for predicting future changes and elaborating strategies to buffer them. Tardigrades are well known for their ability to survive environmental stressors, such as drying and freezing, by undergoing cryptobiosis and rapidly recovering their metabolic function after stressors cease. Determining the extent to which animals that undergo cryptobiosis are affected by environmental warming will help to understand the real magnitude climate change will have on these organisms. Here, we report on the responses of tardigrades within a five-year-long, field-based artificial warming experiment, which consisted of 12 open-top chambers heated to simulate the projected effects of global warming (ranging from 0 to 5.5°C above ambient temperature) in a temperate deciduous forest of North Carolina (USA). To elucidate the effects of warming on the tardigrade community inhabiting the soil litter, three community diversity indices (abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity) and the abundance of the three most abundant species (Diphascon pingue, Adropion scoticum, and Mesobiotus sp.) were determined. Their relationships with air temperature, soil moisture, and the interaction between air temperature and soil moisture were tested using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models. Despite observed negative effects of warming on other ground invertebrates in previous studies at this site, long-term warming did not affect the abundance, richness, or diversity of tardigrades in this experiment. These results are in line with previous experimental studies, indicating that tardigrades may not be directly affected by ongoing global warming, possibly due to their thermotolerance and cryptobiotic abilities to avoid negative effects of stressful temperatures, and the buffering effect on temperature of the soil litter substrate.}, }
@article {pmid34306628, year = {2021}, author = {Nottingham, S and Pelletier, TA}, title = {The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders' distribution.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {14}, pages = {9370-9384}, pmid = {34306628}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {AIM: Given that salamanders have experienced large shifts in their distributions over time, we determined how each species of Plethodon in the Pacific Northwest would respond to climate change. We incorporated several greenhouse scenarios both on a species-by-species basis, and also using phylogenetic groups, with the aim to determine the best course of action in managing land area to conserve diversity in this group.<br><br>LOCATION: Pacific Northwest of the United States (northern CA, OR, WA, ID, and MT).<br><br>MAJOR TAXA STUDIED: Western Plethodon salamanders.<br><br>METHODS: Species distribution models were estimated using MaxEnt for the current time period and for several future climate scenarios using bioclimatic data layers. We used several methods to quantify the change in habitat suitability over time from the models. We explored aspects of the climate layers to determine whether we can expect a concerted response to climate change due to similarity in ecological niche or independent responses that could be harder to manage.<br><br>RESULTS: The distribution of western Plethodon salamander species is strongly influenced by precipitation and less so by temperature. Species responses to climate change resulted in both increases and decreases in predicted suitable habitat, though most species ranges do not contract, especially when taken as a phylogenetic group.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: While some established habitats may become more or less climatically suitable, the overall distribution of species in this group is unlikely to be significantly affected. Clades of Plethodon species are unlikely to be in danger of extirpation despite the possibility that individual species may be threatened as a result of limited distributions. Grouping species into lineages with similar geographic ranges can be a viable method of determining conservation needs. More biotic and dispersal information is needed to determine the true impact that changes in climate will have on the distribution of Plethodon species.}, }
@article {pmid34305362, year = {2023}, author = {Reyes, MES and Carmen, BPB and Luminarias, MEP and Mangulabnan, SANB and Ogunbode, CA}, title = {An investigation into the relationship between climate change anxiety and mental health among Gen Z Filipinos.}, journal = {Current psychology (New Brunswick, N.J.)}, volume = {42}, number = {9}, pages = {7448-7456}, pmid = {34305362}, issn = {1046-1310}, abstract = {Climate change and mental health concerns are both defining issues of the generation of today. It has been established that the worsening climate causes many environmental disasters and physical health problems. However, its psychological impacts are still not well understood. Climate change has brought about an emerging psychological phenomenon termed 'climate anxiety' or 'eco-anxiety,' which has been described as a "chronic fear of environmental doom" (Clayton et al., 2017, p. 68) due to the impact of climate change. This predictive cross-sectional study investigated the link between climate change anxiety and mental health among 433 Filipinos. A total of 145 males and 288 females aged 18 to 26 completed the Climate Change Anxiety Scale and the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-38). Results show a significant relationship between climate change anxiety and mental health, with climate change anxiety predicting 13.5% of the overall Mental Health Index variance. Significantly, climate change anxiety was associated with the MHI-38's global scale of Psychological Distress but not with the global scale of Psychological Well-being. The findings are discussed concerning the broader context of research on the mental health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34303242, year = {2021}, author = {Resco de Dios, V and Hedo, J and Cunill Camprubí, &#xc0; and Thapa, P and Martínez Del Castillo, E and Martínez de Aragón, J and Bonet, JA and Balaguer-Romano, R and Díaz-Sierra, R and Yebra, M and Boer, MM}, title = {Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {797}, number = {}, pages = {149104}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149104}, pmid = {34303242}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fires ; Forests ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Fuel moisture limits the availability of fuel to wildfires in many forest areas worldwide, but the effects of climate change on moisture constraints remain largely unknown. Here we addressed how climate affects fuel moisture in pine stands from Catalonia, NE Spain, and the potential effects of increasing climate aridity on burned area in the Pyrenees, a mesic mountainous area where fire is currently rare. We first quantified variation in fuel moisture in six sites distributed across an altitudinal gradient where the long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation vary by 6-15 °C and 395-933 mm, respectively. We observed significant spatial variation in live (78-162%) and dead (10-15%) fuel moisture across sites. The pattern of variation was negatively linked (r = |0.6|-|0.9|) to increases in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and in the Aridity Index. Using seasonal fire records over 2006-2020, we observed that summer burned area in the Mediterranean forests of Northeast Spain and Southern France was strongly dependent on VPD (r = 0.93), the major driver (and predictor) of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) at our sites. Based on the difference between VPD thresholds associated with large wildfire seasons in the Mediterranean (3.6 kPa) and the maximum VPD observed in surrounding Pyrenean mountains (3.1 kPa), we quantified the "safety margin" for Pyrenean forests (difference between actual VPD and that associated with large wildfires) at 0.5 kPa. The effects of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) on burned area were not significant under current conditions, a situation that may change with projected increases in climate aridity. Overall, our results indicate that DFMC in currently fire-free areas in Europe, like the Pyrenees, with vast amounts of fuel in many forest stands, may reach critical dryness thresholds beyond the safety margin and experience large wildfires after only mild increases in VPD, although LFMC can modulate the response.}, }
@article {pmid34302947, year = {2022}, author = {McDonough, MM and Ferguson, AW and Dowler, RC and Gompper, ME and Maldonado, JE}, title = {Phylogenomic systematics of the spotted skunks (Carnivora, Mephitidae, Spilogale): Additional species diversity and Pleistocene climate change as a major driver of diversification.}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {167}, number = {}, pages = {107266}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2021.107266}, pmid = {34302947}, issn = {1095-9513}, mesh = {Animals ; *Carnivora/genetics ; Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Genetic Variation ; *Mephitidae/genetics ; Mexico ; Phylogeny ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {Four species of spotted skunks (Carnivora, Mephitidae, Spilogale) are currently recognized: Spilogale angustifrons, S. gracilis, S. putorius, and S. pygmaea. Understanding species boundaries within this group is critical for effective conservation given that regional populations or subspecies (e.g., S. p. interrupta) have experienced significant population declines. Further, there may be currently unrecognized diversity within this genus as some taxa (e.g., S. angustifrons) and geographic regions (e.g., Central America) never have been assessed using DNA sequence data. We analyzed species limits and diversification patterns in spotted skunks using multilocus nuclear (ultraconserved elements) and mitochondrial (whole mitogenomes and single gene analysis) data sets from broad geographic sampling representing all currently recognized species and subspecies. We found a high degree of genetic divergence among Spilogale that reflects seven distinct species and eight unique mitochondrial lineages. Initial divergence between S. pygmaea and all other Spilogale occurred in the Early Pliocene (~ 5.0 million years ago). Subsequent diversification of the remaining Spilogale into an "eastern" and a "western" lineage occurred during the Early Pleistocene (~1.5 million years ago). These two lineages experienced temporally coincident patterns of diversification at ~0.66 and ~0.35 million years ago into two and ultimately three distinct evolutionary units, respectively. Diversification was confined almost entirely within the Pleistocene during a timeframe characterized by alternating glacial-interglacial cycles, with the origin of this diversity occurring in northeastern Mexico and the southwestern United States of America. Mitochondrial-nuclear discordance was recovered across three lineages in geographic regions consistent with secondary contact, including a distinct mitochondrial lineage confined to the Sonoran Desert. Our results have direct consequences for conservation of threatened populations, or species, as well as for our understanding of the evolution of delayed implantation in this enigmatic group of small carnivores.}, }
@article {pmid34301875, year = {2021}, author = {Burke, A and Peros, MC and Wren, CD and Pausata, FSR and Riel-Salvatore, J and Moine, O and de Vernal, A and Kageyama, M and Boisard, S}, title = {The archaeology of climate change: The case for cultural diversity.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {30}, pages = {}, pmid = {34301875}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Anthropogenic Effects ; *Archaeology ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Cultural Diversity ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is currently driving environmental transformation on a scale and at a pace that exceeds historical records. This represents an undeniably serious challenge to existing social, political, and economic systems. Humans have successfully faced similar challenges in the past, however. The archaeological record and Earth archives offer rare opportunities to observe the complex interaction between environmental and human systems under different climate regimes and at different spatial and temporal scales. The archaeology of climate change offers opportunities to identify the factors that promoted human resilience in the past and apply the knowledge gained to the present, contributing a much-needed, long-term perspective to climate research. One of the strengths of the archaeological record is the cultural diversity it encompasses, which offers alternatives to the solutions proposed from within the Western agro-industrial complex, which might not be viable cross-culturally. While contemporary climate discourse focuses on the importance of biodiversity, we highlight the importance of cultural diversity as a source of resilience.}, }
@article {pmid34299033, year = {2021}, author = {Mustaffa, NIH and Latif, MT and Wurl, O}, title = {The Role of Extracellular Carbonic Anhydrase in Biogeochemical Cycling: Recent Advances and Climate Change Responses.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {22}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {34299033}, issn = {1422-0067}, support = {GA336408/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Carbonic Anhydrases/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Phytoplankton/*enzymology ; Seawater/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been predicted to influence the marine phytoplankton community and its carbon acquisition strategy. Extracellular carbonic anhydrase (eCA) is a zinc metalloenzyme that catalyses the relatively slow interconversion between HCO3[-] and CO2. Early results indicated that sub-nanomolar levels of eCA at the sea surface were sufficient to enhance the oceanic uptake rate of CO2 on a global scale by 15%, an addition of 0.37 Pg C year[-1]. Despite its central role in the marine carbon cycle, only in recent years have new analytical techniques allowed the first quantifications of eCA and its activity in the oceans. This opens up new research areas in the field of marine biogeochemistry and climate change. Light and suitable pH conditions, as well as growth stage, are crucial factors in eCA expression. Previous studies showed that phytoplankton eCA activity and concentrations are affected by environmental stressors such as ocean acidification and UV radiation as well as changing light conditions. For this reason, eCA is suggested as a biochemical indicator in biomonitoring programmes and could be used for future response prediction studies in changing oceans. This review aims to identify the current knowledge and gaps where new research efforts should be focused to better determine the potential feedback of phytoplankton via eCA in the marine carbon cycle in changing oceans.}, }
@article {pmid34296868, year = {2021}, author = {Andersen, MPS and Nielsen, OJ and Sherman, JD}, title = {The Global Warming Potentials for Anesthetic Gas Sevoflurane Need Significant Corrections.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {55}, number = {15}, pages = {10189-10191}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.1c02573}, pmid = {34296868}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Anesthetics, Inhalation ; Global Warming ; *Methyl Ethers ; Sevoflurane ; }, }
@article {pmid34296315, year = {2021}, author = {Kamenya, SN and Mikwa, EO and Song, B and Odeny, DA}, title = {Correction to: Genetics and breeding for climate change in Orphan crops.}, journal = {TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik}, volume = {134}, number = {10}, pages = {3491-3492}, doi = {10.1007/s00122-021-03904-0}, pmid = {34296315}, issn = {1432-2242}, }
@article {pmid34295866, year = {2021}, author = {Amnuaylojaroen, T and Parasin, N}, title = {The Association Between COVID-19, Air Pollution, and Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {662499}, pmid = {34295866}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {This mini-review aims to highlight both the positive and negative relationship between COVID-19 and air pollution and climate change based on current studies. Since, COVID-19 opened a bibliographic door to scientific production, so there was a limit to research at the moment. There were two sides to the relationship between COVID-19 and both air pollution and climate change. The associated with climate change, in particular, defines the relationship very loosely. Many studies have revealed a positive correlation between COVID-19 and each air pollutants, while some studies shown a negative correlation. There were a few studies that focused on the relationship between COVID-19 in terms of climate. Meanwhile, there were many studies explained the relationship with meteorological factors instead.}, }
@article {pmid34294719, year = {2021}, author = {Ribeiro, S and Limoges, A and Massé, G and Johansen, KL and Colgan, W and Weckström, K and Jackson, R and Georgiadis, E and Mikkelsen, N and Kuijpers, A and Olsen, J and Olsen, SM and Nissen, M and Andersen, TJ and Strunk, A and Wetterich, S and Syväranta, J and Henderson, ACG and Mackay, H and Taipale, S and Jeppesen, E and Larsen, NK and Crosta, X and Giraudeau, J and Wengrat, S and Nuttall, M and Grønnow, B and Mosbech, A and Davidson, TA}, title = {Vulnerability of the North Water ecosystem to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {4475}, pmid = {34294719}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {High Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihoods are tightly linked and exposed to climate change, yet assessing their sensitivity requires a long-term perspective. Here, we assess the vulnerability of the North Water polynya, a unique seaice ecosystem that sustains the world's northernmost Inuit communities and several keystone Arctic species. We reconstruct mid-to-late Holocene changes in sea ice, marine primary production, and little auk colony dynamics through multi-proxy analysis of marine and lake sediment cores. Our results suggest a productive ecosystem by 4400-4200 cal yrs b2k coincident with the arrival of the first humans in Greenland. Climate forcing during the late Holocene, leading to periods of polynya instability and marine productivity decline, is strikingly coeval with the human abandonment of Greenland from c. 2200-1200 cal yrs b2k. Our long-term perspective highlights the future decline of the North Water ecosystem, due to climate warming and changing sea-ice conditions, as an important climate change risk.}, }
@article {pmid34294541, year = {2021}, author = {Ayalon, L and Keating, N and Pillemer, K and Rabheru, K}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health of Older Persons: A Human Rights Imperative.}, journal = {The American journal of geriatric psychiatry : official journal of the American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {1038-1040}, doi = {10.1016/j.jagp.2021.06.015}, pmid = {34294541}, issn = {1545-7214}, mesh = {Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Climate Change ; Human Rights ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens the basic prerequisites for wellbeing, including clean air and water, food supply and the adequacy and security of shelter. Climate change is a powerful and ongoing presence in the lives of older persons, both creating and exacerbating vulnerabilities. The absence of a legally binding international instrument specifically protecting the human rights of older persons and minimal references to older persons in key international climate instruments attest to the lack of attention to and visibility of older persons in national and international law. There is a need to integrate the areas of older people and environmental sustainability to ensure that the rights of older people are preserved especially now, as the effects of the climate change crisis become more pronounced.}, }
@article {pmid34292654, year = {2021}, author = {Pilfold, NW and Richardson, ES and Ellis, J and Jenkins, E and Scandrett, WB and Hernández-Ortiz, A and Buhler, K and McGeachy, D and Al-Adhami, B and Konecsni, K and Lobanov, VA and Owen, MA and Rideout, B and Lunn, NJ}, title = {Long-term increases in pathogen seroprevalence in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) influenced by climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {19}, pages = {4481-4497}, pmid = {34292654}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Dogs ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Ice Cover ; Seroepidemiologic Studies ; *Ursidae ; }, abstract = {The influence of climate change on wildlife disease dynamics is a burgeoning conservation and human health issue, but few long-term studies empirically link climate to pathogen prevalence. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are vulnerable to the negative impacts of sea ice loss as a result of accelerated Arctic warming. While studies have associated changes in polar bear body condition, reproductive output, survival, and abundance to reductions in sea ice, no long-term studies have documented the impact of climate change on pathogen exposure. We examined 425 serum samples from 381 adult polar bears, collected in western Hudson Bay (WH), Canada, for antibodies to selected pathogens across three time periods: 1986-1989 (n = 157), 1995-1998 (n = 159) and 2015-2017 (n = 109). We ran serological assays for antibodies to seven pathogens: Toxoplasma gondii, Neospora caninum, Trichinella spp., Francisella tularensis, Bordetella bronchiseptica, canine morbillivirus (CDV) and canine parvovirus (CPV). Seroprevalence of zoonotic parasites (T. gondii, Trichinella spp.) and bacterial pathogens (F. tularensis, B. bronchiseptica) increased significantly between 1986-1989 and 1995-1998, ranging from +6.2% to +20.8%, with T. gondii continuing to increase into 2015-2017 (+25.8% overall). Seroprevalence of viral pathogens (CDV, CPV) and N. caninum did not change with time. Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence was higher following wetter summers, while seroprevalences of Trichinella spp. and B. bronchiseptica were positively correlated with hotter summers. Seroprevalence of antibodies to F. tularensis increased following years polar bears spent more days on land, and polar bears previously captured in human settlements were more likely to be seropositive for Trichinella spp. As the Arctic has warmed due to climate change, zoonotic pathogen exposure in WH polar bears has increased, driven by numerous altered ecosystem pathways.}, }
@article {pmid34289592, year = {2021}, author = {Adom, PK and Amoani, S}, title = {The role of climate adaptation readiness in economic growth and climate change relationship: An analysis of the output/income and productivity/institution channels.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {293}, number = {}, pages = {112923}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112923}, pmid = {34289592}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Africa ; *Climate Change ; *Economic Development ; Income ; }, abstract = {Although, climate change produces a wide range of effects, including output, institution, conflict, investment and etc., there is little knowledge on whether adapting to climate change could produce effects beyond the level of income to include other non-economic channels. This study examines whether the effect of climate change on economic growth and political stability (measure for productivity growth) depends on the level of climate adaptation readiness, using data from 44 African countries. We conducted several robustness checks to identify the relationship of interest. The result confirms that increases in temperature exert significant negative effect on economic growth and productivity growth, but these effects critically depend on the level of adaptation readiness. For countries with enhanced adaptation capacity, we find that it is possible for them to see a resurgence in their economic growth after a rise in temperature. However, for countries with low capacity to adapt, climate change might produce permanent damages on economic growth and productivity growth. Thus, in Africa, beyond the level of income, the quality of institution is another channel through which climate change could affect economic growth. Integrating climate adaptation into development agenda is critical, but they should be pro-poor in nature.}, }
@article {pmid34289527, year = {2021}, author = {Nyboer, EA and Lin, HY and Bennett, JR and Gabriel, J and Twardek, W and Chhor, AD and Daly, L and Dolson, S and Guitard, E and Holder, P and Mozzon, CM and Trahan, A and Zimmermann, D and Kesner-Reyes, K and Garilao, C and Kaschner, K and Cooke, SJ}, title = {Global assessment of marine and freshwater recreational fish reveals mismatch in climate change vulnerability and conservation effort.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {19}, pages = {4799-4824}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15768}, pmid = {34289527}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; *Fishes ; Fresh Water ; }, abstract = {Recreational fisheries contribute substantially to the sociocultural and economic well-being of coastal and riparian regions worldwide, but climate change threatens their sustainability. Fishery managers require information on how climate change will impact key recreational species; however, the absence of a global assessment hinders both directed and widespread conservation efforts. In this study, we present the first global climate change vulnerability assessment of recreationally targeted fish species from marine and freshwater environments (including diadromous fishes). We use climate change projections and data on species' physiological and ecological traits to quantify and map global climate vulnerability and analyze these patterns alongside the indices of socioeconomic value and conservation effort to determine where efforts are sufficient and where they might fall short. We found that over 20% of recreationally targeted fishes are vulnerable to climate change under a high emission scenario. Overall, marine fishes had the highest number of vulnerable species, concentrated in regions with sensitive habitat types (e.g., coral reefs). However, freshwater fishes had higher proportions of species at risk from climate change, with concentrations in northern Europe, Australia, and southern Africa. Mismatches in conservation effort and vulnerability were found within all regions and life-history groups. A key pattern was that current conservation effort focused primarily on marine fishes of high socioeconomic value rather than on the freshwater and diadromous fishes that were predicted to be proportionately more vulnerable. While several marine regions were notably lacking in protection (e.g., Caribbean Sea, Banda Sea), only 19% of vulnerable marine species were without conservation effort. By contrast, 72% of freshwater fishes and 33% of diadromous fishes had no measures in place, despite their high vulnerability and cultural value. The spatial and taxonomic analyses presented here provide guidance for the future conservation and management of recreational fisheries as climate change progresses.}, }
@article {pmid34289388, year = {2021}, author = {Maire, E and Graham, NAJ and MacNeil, MA and Lam, VWY and Robinson, JPW and Cheung, WWL and Hicks, CC}, title = {Micronutrient supply from global marine fisheries under climate change and overfishing.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {31}, number = {18}, pages = {4132-4138.e3}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2021.06.067}, pmid = {34289388}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Fishes ; Iron ; Micronutrients/analysis ; }, abstract = {Fish are rich in bioavailable micronutrients, such as zinc and iron, deficiencies of which are a global food security concern.[1,2] Global marine fisheries yields are threatened by climate change and overfishing,[3,4] yet understanding of how these stressors affect the nutrients available from fisheries is lacking.[5,6] Here, using global assessments of micronutrient content[2] and fisheries catch data,[7] we investigate how the vulnerability status of marine fish species[8,9] may translate into vulnerability of micronutrient availability at scales of both individual species and entire fishery assemblages for 157 countries. We further quantify the micronutrient evenness of catches to identify countries where interventions can optimize micronutrient supply. Our global analysis, including >800 marine fish species, reveals that, at a species level, micronutrient availability and vulnerability to both climate change and overfishing varies greatly, with tropical species displaying a positive co-tolerance, indicating greater persistence to both stressors at a community level.[10] Global fisheries catches had relatively low nutritional vulnerability to fishing. Catches with higher species richness tend to be nutrient dense and evenly distributed but are more vulnerable to climate change, with 40% of countries displaying high vulnerability. Countries with high prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake tend to have the most nutrient-dense catches, but these same fisheries are highly vulnerable to climate change, with relatively lower capacity to adapt.[11] Our analysis highlights the need to consolidate fisheries, climate, and food policies to secure the sustainable contribution of fish-derived micronutrients to food and nutrition security.}, }
@article {pmid34289013, year = {2022}, author = {Bush, D}, title = {Long-term research reveals potential role of hybrids in climate-change adaptation. A commentary on 'Expansion of the rare Eucalyptus risdonii under climate change through hybridisation with a closely related species despite hybrid inferiority'.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {129}, number = {1}, pages = {i-iii}, pmid = {34289013}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Climate Change ; *Eucalyptus/genetics ; Hybridization, Genetic ; }, abstract = {This article comments on: T. R. Pfeilsticker, R. C. Jones, D. A. Steane, P. A. Harrison, R. E. Vaillancourt and B. M. Potts, Expansion of the rare Eucalyptus risdonii under climate change through hybridization with a closely related species despite hybrid inferiority, Annals of Botany, Volume 129, Issue 1, 1 January 2022, Pages 1–14 https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcab103}, }
@article {pmid34283834, year = {2021}, author = {Fears, R and Abdullah, KAB and Canales-Holzeis, C and Caussy, D and Haines, A and Harper, SL and McNeil, JN and Mogwitz, J and Ter Meulen, V}, title = {Evidence-informed policy for tackling adverse climate change effects on health: Linking regional and global assessments of science to catalyse action.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {18}, number = {7}, pages = {e1003719}, pmid = {34283834}, issn = {1549-1676}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Floods ; Food Security ; *Health ; Humans ; *Policy Making ; Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Robin Fears and co-authors discuss evidence-informed regional and global policy responses to health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34282014, year = {2021}, author = {Yang, B and Qin, C and Bräuning, A and Osborn, TJ and Trouet, V and Ljungqvist, FC and Esper, J and Schneider, L and Grießinger, J and Büntgen, U and Rossi, S and Dong, G and Yan, M and Ning, L and Wang, J and Wang, X and Wang, S and Luterbacher, J and Cook, ER and Stenseth, NC}, title = {Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {30}, pages = {}, pmid = {34282014}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.}, }
@article {pmid34282010, year = {2021}, author = {Ceppi, P and Nowack, P}, title = {Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {30}, pages = {}, pmid = {34282010}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Global warming drives changes in Earth's cloud cover, which, in turn, may amplify or dampen climate change. This "cloud feedback" is the single most important cause of uncertainty in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)-the equilibrium global warming following a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Using data from Earth observations and climate model simulations, we here develop a statistical learning analysis of how clouds respond to changes in the environment. We show that global cloud feedback is dominated by the sensitivity of clouds to surface temperature and tropospheric stability. Considering changes in just these two factors, we are able to constrain global cloud feedback to 0.43 ± 0.35 W⋅m[-2]⋅K[-1] (90% confidence), implying a robustly amplifying effect of clouds on global warming and only a 0.5% chance of ECS below 2 K. We thus anticipate that our approach will enable tighter constraints on climate change projections, including its manifold socioeconomic and ecological impacts.}, }
@article {pmid34281624, year = {2021}, author = {Nazif-Munoz, JI and Martínez, P and Williams, A and Spengler, J}, title = {The risks of warm nights and wet days in the context of climate change: assessing road safety outcomes in Boston, USA and Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.}, journal = {Injury epidemiology}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {47}, pmid = {34281624}, issn = {2197-1714}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There remains a dearth of cross-city comparisons on the impact of climate change through extreme temperature and precipitation events on road safety. We examined trends in traffic fatalities, injuries and property damage associated with high temperatures and heavy rains in Boston (USA) and Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic).<br><br>METHODS: Official publicly available data on daily traffic outcomes and weather conditions during the warm season (May to September) were used for Boston (2002-2015) and Santo Domingo (2013-2017). Daily maximum temperatures and mean precipitations for each city were considered for classifying hot days, warm days, and warm nights, and wet, very wet, and extremely wet days. Time-series analyses were used to assess the relationship between temperature and precipitation and daily traffic outcomes, using a quasi-Poisson regression.<br><br>RESULTS: In Santo Domingo, the presence of a warm night increased traffic fatalities with a rate ratio (RR) of 1.31 (95% CI [confidence interval]: 1.00,1.71). In Boston, precipitation factors (particularly, extremely wet days) were associated with increments in traffic injuries (RR 1.25, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.32) and property damages (RR 1.42, 95% CI: 1.33, 1.51).<br><br>CONCLUSION: During the warm season, mixed associations between weather conditions and traffic outcomes were found across Santo Domingo and Boston. In Boston, increases in heavy precipitation events were associated with higher traffic injuries and property damage. As climate change-related heavy precipitation events are projected to increase in the USA, the associations found in this study should be of interest for road safety planning in a rapidly changing environment.}, }
@article {pmid34281132, year = {2021}, author = {Echevarría-Lucas, L and Senciales-González, JM and Medialdea-Hurtado, ME and Rodrigo-Comino, J}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Eye Diseases and Associated Economical Costs.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {34281132}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Eye Diseases/epidemiology ; Humans ; Spain/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change generates negative impacts on human health. However, little is known about specific impacts on eye diseases, especially in arid and semi-arid areas where increases in air temperatures are expected. Therefore, the main goals of this research are: (i) to highlight the association between common eye diseases and environmental factors; and (ii) to analyze, through the available literature, the health expenditure involved in combating these diseases and the savings from mitigating the environmental factors that aggravate them. Mixed methods were used to assess the cross-variables (environmental factors, eye diseases, health costs). Considering Southern Spain as an example, our results showed that areas with similar climatic conditions could increase eye diseases due to a sustained increase in temperatures and torrential rains, among other factors. We highlight that an increase in eye diseases in Southern Spain is conditioned by the effects of climate change by up to 36.5%; the economic burden of the main eye diseases, extrapolated to the rest of the country, would represent an annual burden of 0.7% of Spain's Gross Domestic Product. In conclusion, the increase in eye diseases has a strong economic and social impact that could be reduced with proper management of the effects of climate change. We propose a new concept: disease sink, defined as any climate change mitigation action which reduces the incidence or morbidity of disease.}, }
@article {pmid34281078, year = {2021}, author = {Paudel, B and Wang, Z and Zhang, Y and Rai, MK and Paul, PK}, title = {Climate Change and Its Impacts on Farmer's Livelihood in Different Physiographic Regions of the Trans-Boundary Koshi River Basin, Central Himalayas.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {34281078}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Farmers ; Humans ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on farmers' livelihoods has been observed in various forms at the local and regional scales. It is well known that the Himalayas region is affected by climate change, as reflected in the basic knowledge of farmers in the region. A questionnaire-based survey involving a total of 747 households was conducted to gather information on climate change and its impact, where the survey addressed four physiographic regions of the trans-boundary Koshi River Basin (KRB). Moreover, climatic data were used to calculate climatic trends between 1980 and 2018. The Mann-Kendall trend test was performed and the Sen's slope calculated to analyze the inter-annual climatic trends over time. The survey noted that, for the basin, there was an increase in temperature, climate-induced diseases of crops, an increase in the frequency of pests as well as drought and floods and a decrease in rainfall, all which are strong indicators of climate change. It was perceived that these indicators had adverse impacts on crop production (89.4%), human health (82.5%), livestock (68.7%) and vegetation (52.1%). The observed climatic trends for all the physiographic regions included an increasing temperature trend and a decreasing rainfall trend. The rate of change varied according to each region, hence strongly supporting the farmers' local knowledge of climate change. The highest increasing trend of temperature noted in the hill region at 0.0975 °C/a (p = 0.0002) and sharpest decreasing trend of rainfall in the mountain region by -10.424 mm/a (p = 0.016) between 1980 and 2018. Formulation of suitable adaptation strategies according to physiographic region can minimize the impact of climate change. New adaptation strategies proposed include the introduction of infrastructure for irrigation systems, the development of crop seeds that are more tolerant to drought, pests and disease tolerance, and the construction of local hospitals for the benefit of farming communities.}, }
@article {pmid34280857, year = {2021}, author = {Fooladi, M and Golmohammadi, MH and Safavi, HR and Singh, VP}, title = {Fusion-based framework for meteorological drought modeling using remotely sensed datasets under climate change scenarios: Resilience, vulnerability, and frequency analysis.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {297}, number = {}, pages = {113283}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113283}, pmid = {34280857}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Artificial Intelligence ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Meteorology ; Neural Networks, Computer ; }, abstract = {Severe drought events in recent decades and their catastrophic effects have called for drought prediction and monitoring needed for developing drought readiness plans and mitigation measures. This study used a fusion-based framework for meteorological drought modeling for the historical (1983-2016) and future (2020-2050) periods using remotely sensed datasets versus ground-based observations and climate change scenarios. To this aim, high-resolution remotely sensed precipitation datasets, including PERSIANN-CDR and CHIRPS (multi-source products), ERA5 (reanalysis datasets), and GPCC (gauge-interpolated datasets), were employed to estimate non-parametric SPI (nSPI) as a meteorological drought index against local observations. For more accurate drought evaluation, all stations were classified into different clusters using the K-means clustering algorithm based on ground-based nSPI. Then, four Individual Artificial Intelligence (IAI) models, including Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), were developed for drought modeling within each cluster. Finally, two advanced fusion-based methods, including Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE) as a linear weighted model and a nonlinear model called machine learning Random Forest (RF), combined results by IAI models using different remotely sensed datasets. The proposed framework was implemented to simulate each remotely sensed precipitation data for the future based on CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for drought projection. The efficiency of IAI and fusion models was evaluated using statistical error metrics, including the coefficient of determination (R[2]), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The proposed methodology was employed in the Gavkhooni basin of Iran, and results showed that the RF model with the lowest estimation error (RMSE of 0.391 and R[2] of 0.810) had performed well compared to all other models. Finally, the resilience, vulnerability, and frequency of probability metrics indicated that the 12-month time scale of drought affected the basin more severely than other time scales.}, }
@article {pmid34280794, year = {2021}, author = {Nolan, JM}, title = {Social norm interventions as a tool for pro-climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {120-125}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.06.001}, pmid = {34280794}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Policy ; *Social Norms ; }, abstract = {Social norms interventions (SNIs) are a robust and widely used tool for addressing climate change. SNIs targeting second-order climate beliefs can be used to correct normative misperceptions, close the partisan gap, and increase support for climate policy. They can also be harnessed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by targeting behaviors such as home energy conservation. A large body of current research supports the effectiveness of the SNI and provides guidance for how to optimize outreach and promote climate-relevant behaviors that are currently performed by only a minority of people.}, }
@article {pmid34280642, year = {2021}, author = {Fan, Z and Bai, X}, title = {Scenarios of potential vegetation distribution in the different gradient zones of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under future climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {796}, number = {}, pages = {148918}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148918}, pmid = {34280642}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {The spatial distribution of potential vegetation types in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau presents a significant vertical zonation. Explicating the vertical differences of potential vegetation distribution under future climate change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is an important issue for understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystem to climate change. Based on the observed climate data in 1981-2010 (T0), the scenario data of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 released by CMIP5 in 2011-2040 (T1), 2041-2070 (T2) and 2071-2100 (T3), and the digital elevation model (DEM) data, the Holdridge life zone (HLZ) model has been improved to simulate the scenarios of potential vegetation distribution in the different gradient zones of Qinghai-Tibet plateau. The shift model of mean center has been improved to calculate the shift direction and distance of mean center in the potential vegetation types. The ecological diversity index was introduced to compute the ecological diversity change of potential vegetation. The simulated results show that there are 17 potential vegetation types in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Wet tundra, high-cold moist forest and nival are the major potential vegetation types and cover 56.26% of the total area of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Under the three scenarios, the nival would have the largest decreased area that would be decreased by 3.340 × 10[4] km[2] per decade, and the high-cold wet forest would have the greatest increased area that would be increased by 3.340 × 10[4] km[2] on average per decade from T0 to T3. The potential vegetation types distributed in the alpine zone would show the fastest change ratio (11.32% per decade) and that in low mountain and other zone would show the slowest change ratio (7.54% per decade) on average. The ecological diversity and patch connectivity of potential vegetation would be decreased by 0.108% and 0.290% per decade on average from T0 to T3. In general, the potential vegetation types distributed in the high elevation area generally have a higher sensitivity to climate change in Qinghai-Tibet plateau in the future.}, }
@article {pmid34278034, year = {2021}, author = {Taye, MA}, title = {Agro-ecosystem sensitivity to climate change over the Ethiopian highlands in a watershed of Lake Tana sub-basin.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {e07454}, pmid = {34278034}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The study analyzed the level of agro-ecosystem sensitivity to climate change among the agro-climatic zones (ACZs) that are situated in the highlands of Lake Tana sub-basin. The analyses considered the actual land capability class (LCC in % considering soil texture, slope and elevation zone), crop diversity (count), length of growing period (LGP, month), and inter-annual variability of climate (mean annual rainfall-MARF in mm, mean monthly minimum temperature-MMMinT in ºC, and mean monthly maximum temperature-MMMaxT in ºC). For comparison purpose, it was essential to index/standardize the values of specified indicators. The proportion of arable land varied from 13.30% (in the Sub-Alpine) to 93.00% (in the Moist-Cold). The value of coefficient of variation showed the presence of variations of 7.85-11.21 (%), 7.21-10.34 (%), 16.37-39.61 (%) for MARF (mm), MMMaxT (ºC), and MMMinT (ºC), respectively across the ACZs. The inter-annual variability of both onset and offset time of rainy season was found to be in the range of 0.3-1.25 months. The LGP (month) was in the range of 3.25-6.25 across the ACZs; whereas crop diversity (count) ranged from 2-7. The production of red onion (allium cepa), oat (Avena sativa), local wheat (Triticum), and pea (Pisum sativum) was abandoned in the Sub-Alpine; whereas the production of linseed (Linmu usitatisimum), barley (Hordeum vulgare), and niger (Guizotia abyssinica) in the Moist-Cool. Yet, crops like maize and tef became the common crops in the Cold, possibly because of global warming. The indexed value of agro-ecosystem sensitivity to climate change ranged from 0.14-0.71. The level of agro-ecosystem sensitivity was higher towards the Sub-Alpine. The local development interventions to be made in the various ACZs need to be determined/prioritized considering the level of agro-ecosystem sensitivity.}, }
@article {pmid34278020, year = {2021}, author = {Mandal, S and Islam, MS and Biswas, MHA and Akter, S}, title = {Modeling the optimal mitigation of potential impact of climate change on coastal ecosystems.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {e07401}, pmid = {34278020}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Global warming is adversely affecting the earth's climate system due to rapid emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Consequently, the world's coastal ecosystems are rapidly approaching a dangerous situation. In this study, we formulate a mathematical model to assess the impact of rapid emissions of GHGs on climate change and coastal ecosystems. Furthermore, we develop a mitigation method involving two control strategies: coastal greenbelt and desulfurization. Here, greenbelt is considered in coastal areas to reduce the concentrations of GHGs by absorbing the environmental carbon dioxide (CO2), whereas desulfurization is considered in factories and industries to reduce GHG emissions by controlling the release of harmful sulfur compounds. The model and how it can control the situation are analytically verified. Numerical results of this study are confirmed by comparison with other studies that examine different scenarios. Results show that both control strategies can mitigate GHG concentrations, curtail global warming and to some extent manage climate change. The results further reveal that both control strategies are more effective than one control method. Overall, the results suggest that the concentrations of GHGs and the effects of climate change can be controlled by adopting sufficient coastal greenbelt and desulfurization techniques in various industries.}, }
@article {pmid34276492, year = {2021}, author = {Sambrook, K and Konstantinidis, E and Russell, S and Okan, Y}, title = {The Role of Personal Experience and Prior Beliefs in Shaping Climate Change Perceptions: A Narrative Review.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {669911}, pmid = {34276492}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Global climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and flooding. This is the primary way many individuals experience climate change, which has led researchers to investigate the influence of personal experience on climate change concern and action. However, existing evidence is still limited and in some cases contradictory. At the same time, behavioral decision research has highlighted the importance of pre-existing values and beliefs in shaping how individuals experience changes in environmental conditions. This is in line with theories of motivated reasoning, which suggest that people interpret and process information in a biased manner to maintain their prior beliefs. Yet, the evidence for directional motivated reasoning in the context of climate change beliefs has recently been questioned. In the current paper, we critically review the literature on the interrelationships between personal experience of local weather anomalies, extreme weather events and climate change beliefs. Overall, our review shows that there is some evidence that local warming can generate climate change concern, but the capacity for personal experience to promote action may rely upon the experience first being attributed to climate change. Rare extreme weather events will likely have limited impact on judgments and decisions unless they have occurred recently. However, even recent events may have limited impact among individuals who hold strong pre-existing beliefs rejecting the reality of climate change. We identify limitations of existing research and suggest directions for future work.}, }
@article {pmid34276245, year = {2022}, author = {Pickson, RB and Boateng, E}, title = {Climate change: a friend or foe to food security in Africa?.}, journal = {Environment, development and sustainability}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {4387-4412}, pmid = {34276245}, issn = {1573-2975}, abstract = {Extreme climate change is posing an increasing threat to human welfare across countries. Specifically, the devastating floods coupled with the looming spectre of drought are argued to explain cross-country differences in food security. While the debate continues and uncertainties about the precise influence of climate change on food security linger, the question of whether climate change plays a pivotal role in increased hunger and food insecurity across countries remains unanswered. This study presented new evidence of the role of climate change in Africa's food security. We utilised the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator to analyse climate change trends. We also employed the pooled mean group technique and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test to investigate the effect of climate change on food security in 15 African countries between 1970 and 2016. Our empirical findings revealed three things. First, rainfall plays a decisive role in Africa's food security when examined broadly. However, the significance of the effect of rainfall varied substantially across the 15 countries. Second, we find no robust impact of temperature on food security in the long run. However, the short-run results showed that extreme temperatures impede food security, with varying magnitudes across countries. Third, except for rainfall, a bidirectional causality exists between food security and temperature in Africa. Given the risks associated with rain-fed agriculture, we argue that African countries need to limit their dependence on rain-fed agriculture to boost food production.}, }
@article {pmid34275528, year = {2021}, author = {Kolbuk, ME and Gillespie, GL and Hilderbrand, L and Stone, EL}, title = {Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on Health and Health Care: The Role of the Emergency Nurse.}, journal = {Journal of emergency nursing}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {621-626}, doi = {10.1016/j.jen.2021.05.004}, pmid = {34275528}, issn = {1527-2966}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Facilities ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid34275522, year = {2021}, author = {Linstadt, H and Sorensen, C and Balbus, JM}, title = {Commentary on "A CLIMATE: A Tool for Assessment of Climate-Change-Related Health Consequences in the Emergency Department".}, journal = {Journal of emergency nursing}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {518-520}, doi = {10.1016/j.jen.2021.04.004}, pmid = {34275522}, issn = {1527-2966}, }
@article {pmid34273694, year = {2021}, author = {Sarmadi, M and Rahimi, S and Rezaiemanesh, MR and Yektay, S}, title = {Association between water and sanitation, air and emission pollution and climate change and neurological disease distribution: A study based on GBD data.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {285}, number = {}, pages = {131522}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.131522}, pmid = {34273694}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; Climate Change ; Global Burden of Disease ; Humans ; *Nervous System Diseases ; Sanitation ; Water ; }, abstract = {Along with the urbanization and industrialization of countries, the prevalence of chronic diseases has increased. There is ample evidence that ambient pollution can play a major role in these diseases. This study aimed to investigate the association between neurological disorders (NDs) and their subtypes with environmental factors. In this country-level study, we used the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rate (per 100,000 populations) of NDs and its subtypes that have been taken from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database in 2019. We used correlation and regression analysis to assess the association between variables. Also, multivariable regression analysis was performed to identify the most important variables in NDs distribution. Age-adjusted NDs incidence rate was significantly higher in developed countries compared to developing countries (11345.25 (95% CI: 11634.88-11055.62) and 9956.37 (95% CI: 10138.66-9774.08)). Association results indicated that the impact of water and sanitation could be more effective than air pollution on NDs. The increase in water and sanitation index levels was positively correlated with NDs incidence rate and prevalence (regression coefficient (b) = 38.011 (SE = 6.50) and b = 118.84 (SE = 20.64), p < 0.001, respectively) after adjusting socio-economic and demographic factors. Furthermore, the incidence of NDs was negatively correlated with the increase in air quality (b = -16.30 (SE = 7.25), p = 0.008). Water and sanitation and their related factors are plausible factors in the distribution of NDs, which may be linked to the potential role of air and water pollution, such as heavy metals and particle matters. These results can be used by politicians and municipal service planners for future planning.}, }
@article {pmid34267795, year = {2021}, author = {Scheelbeek, PFD and Dangour, AD and Jarmul, S and Turner, G and Sietsma, AJ and Minx, JC and Callaghan, M and Ajibade, I and Austin, SE and Biesbroek, R and Bowen, KJ and Chen, T and Davis, K and Ensor, T and Ford, JD and Galappaththi, EK and Joe, ET and Musah-Surugu, IJ and Alverio, GN and Schwerdtle, PN and Pokharel, P and Salubi, EA and Scarpa, G and Segnon, AC and Siña, M and Templeman, S and Xu, J and Zavaleta-Cortijo, C and Berrang-Ford, L}, title = {The effects on public health of climate change adaptation responses: a systematic review of evidence from low- and middle-income countries.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {16}, number = {7}, pages = {073001}, pmid = {34267795}, issn = {1748-9326}, abstract = {Climate change adaptation responses are being developed and delivered in many parts of the world in the absence of detailed knowledge of their effects on public health. Here we present the results of a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature reporting the effects on health of climate change adaptation responses in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The review used the 'Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative' database (comprising 1682 publications related to climate change adaptation responses) that was constructed through systematic literature searches in Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar (2013-2020). For this study, further screening was performed to identify studies from LMICs reporting the effects on human health of climate change adaptation responses. Studies were categorised by study design and data were extracted on geographic region, population under investigation, type of adaptation response and reported health effects. The review identified 99 studies (1117 reported outcomes), reporting evidence from 66 LMICs. Only two studies were ex ante formal evaluations of climate change adaptation responses. Papers reported adaptation responses related to flooding, rainfall, drought and extreme heat, predominantly through behaviour change, and infrastructural and technological improvements. Reported (direct and intermediate) health outcomes included reduction in infectious disease incidence, improved access to water/sanitation and improved food security. All-cause mortality was rarely reported, and no papers were identified reporting on maternal and child health. Reported maladaptations were predominantly related to widening of inequalities and unforeseen co-harms. Reporting and publication-bias seems likely with only 3.5% of all 1117 health outcomes reported to be negative. Our review identified some evidence that climate change adaptation responses may have benefits for human health but the overall paucity of evidence is concerning and represents a major missed opportunity for learning. There is an urgent need for greater focus on the funding, design, evaluation and standardised reporting of the effects on health of climate change adaptation responses to enable evidence-based policy action.}, }
@article {pmid34267424, year = {2021}, author = {Hayles, S and Al, T and Cornett, J and Harrison, A and Zhao, J}, title = {Growth rates for freshwater ferromanganese concretions indicate regional climate change in eastern Canada at the Northgrippian-Meghalayan boundary.}, journal = {The Holocene}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {1250-1263}, pmid = {34267424}, issn = {0959-6836}, abstract = {The existence of freshwater ferromanganese concretions has been known for decades, but we are not aware of a generally accepted explanation for their formation, and there has been little research into their potential use as records of Holocene climate and paleohydrology. A conceptual model is presented to describe the environmental and geochemical processes which result in the formation and growth of freshwater ferromanganese concretions. In order to evaluate their potential as historical geochemical records, a concretion from Magaguadavic Lake, New Brunswick, Canada is the focus of a detailed geochronological and geochemical investigation. The radiocarbon data provide a coherent growth curve and a maximum age for the concretion of 8448 ± 43 years, consistent with the establishment of Magaguadavic Lake as a stable post-glacial lacustrine system. The data suggest accretion rates of 1.5 and 3.4 mm per 1000 years during the Northgrippian and Meghalayan stages of the Holocene, respectively. The abrupt change in growth rate observed at the stage boundary may be an indicator of Holocene climate change. These features are consistent with inferences from previous research that warmer climate in the Northgrippian led to eutrophication in some lakes in eastern North America. The results confirm that freshwater Fe-Mn concretions may yield important information about past climatic and environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid34267385, year = {2020}, author = {Graham, F}, title = {Daily briefing: Arctic heat wave is 'unequivocal' evidence of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-02150-6}, pmid = {34267385}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid34267317, year = {2021}, author = {Baumbach, L and Warren, DL and Yousefpour, R and Hanewinkel, M}, title = {Climate change may induce connectivity loss and mountaintop extinction in Central American forests.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {869}, pmid = {34267317}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Central America ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *Ecosystem ; Forestry/methods/*statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Geography ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Plants/classification/*metabolism ; Population Dynamics ; Trees/classification/*metabolism ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The tropical forests of Central America serve a pivotal role as biodiversity hotspots and provide ecosystem services securing human livelihood. However, climate change is expected to affect the species composition of forest ecosystems, lead to forest type transitions and trigger irrecoverable losses of habitat and biodiversity. Here, we investigate potential impacts of climate change on the environmental suitability of main plant functional types (PFTs) across Central America. Using a large database of occurrence records and physiological data, we classify tree species into trait-based groups and project their suitability under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) with an ensemble of state-of-the-art correlative modelling methods. Our results forecast transitions from wet towards generalist or dry forest PFTs for large parts of the study region. Moreover, suitable area for wet-adapted PFTs is projected to latitudinally diverge and lose connectivity, while expected upslope shifts of montane species point to high risks of mountaintop extinction. These findings underline the urgent need to safeguard the connectivity of habitats through biological corridors and extend protected areas in the identified transition hotspots.}, }
@article {pmid34265618, year = {2021}, author = {Gurung, LJ and Miller, KK and Venn, S and Bryan, BA}, title = {Climate change adaptation for managing non-timber forest products in the Nepalese Himalaya.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {796}, number = {}, pages = {148853}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148853}, pmid = {34265618}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Family Characteristics ; *Forests ; Humans ; Income ; }, abstract = {Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) contribute to the well-being of mountain communities in many ways but their availability is being impacted by climate change. Policy and programs to enhance adaptation can alleviate these impacts, but to be effective they require an understanding of mountain community perceptions of climate change impacts on NTFPs and the perceived barriers to climate change adaptation. Here, we explored mountain communities' adaptation responses to the perceived impacts of climate change on NTFPs and people's barriers to adaptation using a structured questionnaire delivered as a field-based survey of 278 forest-dependent households from the Upper Madi Watershed of Nepal. We present a quantitative graphical exploration of the results to provide a simple overview of climate change impacts of NTFPs and local adaptation. The most common adaptation practices adopted by the mountain communities in the study area include the self-regulation of over-collection of NTFPs, alternative income generating activities, improved stoves, agroforestry, and sourcing alternative tools and materials. However, adaptation options to deal with increased invasive plant species and pest insect outbreaks appear to be challenging despite having the highest perceived impact on NTFPs. Adaptation practices are constrained by several factors such as the lack of predictability of extreme events and climate-related hazards, lack of technical knowledge, fatalistic beliefs and perceived lack of agency, and limited government support. Our results can inform policies and programs required for addressing the impacts of climate change on mountain communities in Nepal and other developing nations.}, }
@article {pmid34265126, year = {2021}, author = {García-Robledo, C and Baer, CS}, title = {Positive genetic covariance and limited thermal tolerance constrain tropical insect responses to global warming.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {34}, number = {9}, pages = {1432-1446}, doi = {10.1111/jeb.13905}, pmid = {34265126}, issn = {1420-9101}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Animals ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Insecta ; Temperature ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Tropical ectotherms are particularly vulnerable to global warming because their physiologies are assumed to be adapted to narrow temperature ranges. This study explores three mechanisms potentially constraining thermal adaptation to global warming in tropical insects: (a) Trade-offs in genotypic performance at different temperatures (the jack-of-all-trades hypothesis), (b) positive genetic covariance in performance, with some genotypes performing better than others at viable temperatures (the 'winner' and 'loser' genotypes hypothesis), or (c) limited genetic variation as the potential result of relaxed selection and the loss of genes associated with responses to extreme temperatures (the gene decay hypothesis). We estimated changes in growth and survival rates at multiple temperatures for three tropical rain forest insect herbivores (Cephaloleia rolled-leaf beetles, Chrysomelidae). We reared 2,746 individuals in a full sibling experimental design, at temperatures known to be experienced by this genus of beetles in nature (i.e. 10-35°C). Significant genetic covariance was positive for 16 traits, supporting the 'winner' and 'loser' genotypes hypothesis. Only two traits displayed negative cross-temperature performance correlations. We detected a substantial contribution of genetic variance in traits associated with size and mass (0%-44%), but low heritability in plastic traits such as development time (0%-6%) or survival (0%-4%). Lowland insect populations will most likely decline if current temperatures increase between 2 and 5°C. It is concerning that local adaption is already lagging behind current temperatures. The consequences of maintaining the current global warming trajectory would be devastating for tropical insects. However, if humans can limit or slow warming, many tropical ectotherms might persist in their current locations and potentially adapt to warmer temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid34262208, year = {2021}, author = {Gatti, LV and Basso, LS and Miller, JB and Gloor, M and Gatti Domingues, L and Cassol, HLG and Tejada, G and Aragão, LEOC and Nobre, C and Peters, W and Marani, L and Arai, E and Sanches, AH and Corrêa, SM and Anderson, L and Von Randow, C and Correia, CSC and Crispim, SP and Neves, RAL}, title = {Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {595}, number = {7867}, pages = {388-393}, pmid = {34262208}, issn = {1476-4687}, support = {/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Carbon Monoxide/analysis ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Forests ; Human Activities ; Photosynthesis ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Amazonia hosts the Earth's largest tropical forests and has been shown to be an important carbon sink over recent decades[1-3]. This carbon sink seems to be in decline, however, as a result of factors such as deforestation and climate change[1-3]. Here we investigate Amazonia's carbon budget and the main drivers responsible for its change into a carbon source. We performed 590 aircraft vertical profiling measurements of lower-tropospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide at four sites in Amazonia from 2010 to 2018[4]. We find that total carbon emissions are greater in eastern Amazonia than in the western part, mostly as a result of spatial differences in carbon-monoxide-derived fire emissions. Southeastern Amazonia, in particular, acts as a net carbon source (total carbon flux minus fire emissions) to the atmosphere. Over the past 40 years, eastern Amazonia has been subjected to more deforestation, warming and moisture stress than the western part, especially during the dry season, with the southeast experiencing the strongest trends[5-9]. We explore the effect of climate change and deforestation trends on carbon emissions at our study sites, and find that the intensification of the dry season and an increase in deforestation seem to promote ecosystem stress, increase in fire occurrence, and higher carbon emissions in the eastern Amazon. This is in line with recent studies that indicate an increase in tree mortality and a reduction in photosynthesis as a result of climatic changes across Amazonia[1,10].}, }
@article {pmid34261645, year = {2021}, author = {Van Houtan, KS and Tanaka, KR and Gagné, TO and Becker, SL}, title = {The geographic disparity of historical greenhouse emissions and projected climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {7}, number = {29}, pages = {}, pmid = {34261645}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {One challenge in climate change communication is that the causes and impacts of global warming are unrelated at local spatial scales. Using high-resolution datasets of historical anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and an ensemble of 21st century surface temperature projections, we developed a spatially explicit index of local climate disparity. This index identifies positive (low emissions, large temperature shifts) and negative disparity regions (high emissions, small temperature shifts), with global coverage. Across all climate change projections we analyzed, 99% of the earth's surface area has a positive index value. This result underscores that while emissions are geographically concentrated, warming is globally widespread. From our index, the regions of the greatest positive disparity appear concentrated in the polar arctic, Central Asia, and Africa with negative disparity regions in western Europe, Southeast Asia, and eastern North America. Straightforward illustrations of this complex relationship may inform on equity, enhance public understanding, and increase collective global action.}, }
@article {pmid34261223, year = {2021}, author = {Kopáček, J and Kaňa, J and Porcal, P and Stuchlík, E}, title = {Diverse effects of accelerating climate change on chemical recovery of alpine lakes from acidic deposition in soil-rich versus scree-rich catchments.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {284}, number = {}, pages = {117522}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2021.117522}, pmid = {34261223}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Lakes ; Reproducibility of Results ; Snow ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {The current recovery of mountain lakes from atmospheric acidification is increasingly affected (both accelerated and/or delayed) by climate change. We evaluated long-term trends in the ionic composition of 30 lakes situated in the alpine zone of the Tatra Mountains, and compared the rates of their recovery with model (MAGIC) simulations done 20 years ago for the 2003-2020 period. The observed recovery was faster than the model forecast, due to greater reductions in acidic deposition than projected. Trends in water composition were further modified by climate change. Rising temperatures increased the length of the growing season and retention of inorganic N and SO4[2-] more in soil-rich compared with soil-poor catchments. In contrast, elevated precipitation and an increase in rainfall intensity reduced water residence time in soils, and consequently reduced N retention, especially in soil-poor catchments. It is likely that increases in rainfall intensity and annual number of days without snow, along with air temperatures fluctuating around the freezing point elevated the physical erosion of rocks, especially in high-elevation, steep, and scree-rich areas where rocks are not thermally insulated and stabilized by soils. Weathering of exposed accessory calcite in the eroded granodiorite bedrock was a source of Ca[2+] and HCO3[-], while S-bearing minerals likely contributed to lake water SO4[2-] and partly mitigated its deposition-related decrease in scree-rich catchments. The extent of climate effects on changes in the water composition of alpine lakes recovering from acidic deposition thus depended on elevation and cover of soil and scree in catchments. Our results highlight the need for incorporating dominant climate-related process into existing process-based models to increase their reliability in predicting the future development of lake water composition.}, }
@article {pmid34260339, year = {2021}, author = {Beltrán, I and Perry, C and Degottex, F and Whiting, MJ}, title = {Behavioral Thermoregulation by Mothers Protects Offspring from Global Warming but at a Cost.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {94}, number = {5}, pages = {302-318}, doi = {10.1086/715976}, pmid = {34260339}, issn = {1537-5293}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation ; Female ; Global Warming ; Humans ; *Lizards ; Mothers ; *Physical Conditioning, Animal ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {AbstractThermal conditions during embryonic development affect offspring phenotype in ectotherms. Therefore, rising environmental temperatures can have important consequences for an individual's fitness. Nonetheless, females have some capacity to compensate for potential negative consequences that adverse developmental environments may have on their offspring. Recent studies show that oviparous reptiles exhibit behavioral plasticity in nest site selection, which can buffer their embryos against high incubation temperatures; however, much less is known about these responses in viviparous reptiles. We subjected pregnant viviparous skinks, Saiphos equalis, to current or projected midcentury (2050) temperatures to test (i) how elevated temperatures affect female thermoregulatory and foraging behavior; (ii) whether temperatures experienced by females during pregnancy negatively affect the morphology, performance, and behavior of hatchlings; and (iii) whether behavioral thermoregulation during pregnancy is costly to females. Females from the elevated temperature treatment compensated by going deeper belowground to seek cooler temperatures and eating less, and they consequently had a lower body mass relative to snout-to-vent length (condition estimator) compared with females from the current thermal treatment. The temperatures experienced by females in the elevated temperature treatment were high enough to affect foraging and locomotor performance but not the morphology and growth rate of hatchlings. By seeking cooler temperatures, mothers can mitigate some of the effects of high temperatures on their offspring (e.g., reduced body size and growth). However, this protective behavior of females may come at an energetic cost to them. This study adds to growing evidence of lizards' vulnerability to global warming, particularly during reproduction when females are already paying a substantial cost.}, }
@article {pmid34257937, year = {2021}, author = {Kärcher, O and Flörke, M and Markovic, D}, title = {Different life stage, different risks: Thermal performance across the life cycle of Salmo trutta and Salmo salar in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {13}, pages = {8941-8956}, pmid = {34257937}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Extending assessments of climate change-induced range shifts via correlative species distribution models by including species traits is crucial for conservation planning. However, comprehensive assessments of future distribution scenarios incorporating responses of biotic factors are poorly investigated. Therefore, the aim of our study was to extend the understanding about the combined usage of species traits data and species distribution models for different life stages and distribution scenarios. We combine global model predictions for the 2050s and thermal performances of Salmo trutta and Salmo salar under consideration of different life stages (adults, juveniles, eggs), timeframes (monthly, seasonally, yearly), and dispersal scenarios (no dispersal, free dispersal, restricted dispersal). We demonstrate that thermal performances of different life stages will either increase or decrease for certain time periods. Model predictions and thermal performances imply range declines and poleward shifts. Dispersal to suitable habitats will be an important factor mitigating warming effects; however, dams may block paths to areas linked to high performances. Our results emphasize enhanced inclusion of critical periods for species and proper dispersal solutions in conservation planning.}, }
@article {pmid34257508, year = {2021}, author = {Nordgren, A}, title = {Pessimism and Optimism in the Debate on Climate Change: A Critical Analysis.}, journal = {Journal of agricultural &amp; environmental ethics}, volume = {34}, number = {4}, pages = {22}, pmid = {34257508}, issn = {1187-7863}, abstract = {In the debate on climate change commentators often express pessimistic or optimistic views. We see this mainly in the media and popular literature, but also in various academic fields. The aim of this paper is to investigate different kinds of pessimistic and optimistic views put forward in this debate and suggest explanations of the diversity of views. The paper concludes that pessimism and optimism may concern, for example, climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process, mitigation of climate change or specific measures of mitigation. These aspects are important to distinguish, because a person can be pessimist concerning climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process and optimist concerning mitigation of climate change, and be pessimist concerning one specific mitigation measure and optimist concerning another. It is suggested that the diversity of pessimistic and optimistic views is due to the uncertainty of scientific climate models and the influence of evaluative and ideological assumptions.}, }
@article {pmid34257364, year = {2021}, author = {Rödder, D and Schmitt, T and Gros, P and Ulrich, W and Habel, JC}, title = {Climate change drives mountain butterflies towards the summits.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {14382}, pmid = {34257364}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Butterflies ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts biodiversity and is driving range shifts of species and populations across the globe. To understand the effects of climate warming on biota, long-term observations of the occurrence of species and detailed knowledge on their ecology and life-history is crucial. Mountain species particularly suffer under climate warming and often respond to environmental changes by altitudinal range shifts. We assessed long-term distribution trends of mountain butterflies across the eastern Alps and calculated species' specific annual range shifts based on field observations and species distribution models, counterbalancing the potential drawbacks of both approaches. We also compiled details on the ecology, behaviour and life-history, and the climate niche of each species assessed. We found that the highest altitudinal maxima were observed recently in the majority of cases, while the lowest altitudes of observations were recorded before 1980. Mobile and generalist species with a broad ecological amplitude tended to move uphill more than specialist and sedentary species. As main drivers we identified climatic conditions and topographic variables, such as insolation and solar irradiation. This study provides important evidence for responses of high mountain taxa to rapid climate change. Our study underlines the advantage of combining historical surveys and museum collection data with cutting-edge analyses.}, }
@article {pmid34256287, year = {2021}, author = {Lee, HH and Kim, SU and Han, HR and Hur, DY and Owens, VN and Kumar, S and Hong, CO}, title = {Mitigation of global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in arable soil with green manure as source of nitrogen.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {288}, number = {}, pages = {117724}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2021.117724}, pmid = {34256287}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Ecosystem ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Manure ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Soil ; }, abstract = {This study was conducted to determine the effect of different green manure treatments on net GWP and GHGI in upland soil. Barley (B), hairy vetch (HV), and a barley/hairy vetch mixture (BHV) were sown on an upland soil on November 4, 2017 and October 24, 2018. The aboveground biomass of these green manures was incorporated into soil on June 1, 2018 and May 8, 2019. In addition, a fallow treatment (F) was installed as the control. Maize was transplanted as the subsequent crop after incorporation of green manures. Green manuring significantly affected CO2 and N2O emission, but not CH4. Average cumulative soil respiration across years with HV and BHV were 37.0 Mg CO2 ha[-1] yr[-1] and 35.8 Mg CO2 ha[-1] yr[-1], respectively and significantly higher than those with under F and B (32.7 Mg CO2 ha[-1] yr[-1] and 33.0 Mg CO2 ha[-1] yr[-1], respectively). Cumulative N2O emissions across years with F and HV were 6.29 kg N2O ha[-1] yr[-1] and 5.44 kg N2O ha[-1] yr[-1], respectively and significantly higher than those with B and BHV (4.26 kg N2O ha[-1] yr[-1] and 4.42 kg N2O ha[-1] yr[-1], respectively). The net ecosystem carbon budget for HV (-0.5 Mg C ha[-1] yr[-1]) was the greatest among the treatments (F; -1.61 Mg C ha[-1] yr[-1], B; -3.98 Mg C ha[-1] yr[-1], and BHV; -0.91 Mg C ha[-1] yr[-1]) because of its high biomass yields and the yield of maize after incorporation of HV. There was no significant difference of GHGI among F, HV, and BHV. Incorporation of HV or BHV could reduce net CO2 emissions per unit of maize grain production as well as F.}, }
@article {pmid34253916, year = {2021}, author = {Graham, F}, title = {Daily briefing: How climate change boosted the Pacific Northwest heatwave.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-01918-8}, pmid = {34253916}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid34253791, year = {2021}, author = {Zhirnova, DF and Belokopytova, LV and Meko, DM and Babushkina, EA and Vaganov, EA}, title = {Climate change and tree growth in the Khakass-Minusinsk Depression (South Siberia) impacted by large water reservoirs.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {14266}, pmid = {34253791}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Regional and local climate change depends on continentality, orography, and human activities. In particular, local climate modification by water reservoirs can reach far from shore and downstream. Among the possible ecological consequences are shifts in plant performance. Tree-ring width of affected trees can potentially be used as proxies for reservoir impact. Correlation analysis and t-tests were applied to climatic data and tree-ring chronologies of Pinus sylvestris L. and Larix sibirica Ledeb. from moisture-deficit habitats in the intermontane Khakass-Minusinsk Depression, to assess modification of climate and tree growth by the Krasnoyarsk and Sayano-Shushenskoe Reservoirs on the Yenisei River. Abrupt significant cooling in May-August and warming in September-March occurred after the launch of the turbines in dams, more pronounced near the Sayano-Shushenskoe dam (up to - 0.5 °C in summer and to + 3.5 °C in winter) than near the Krasnoyarsk Reservoir headwaters (- 0.3 °C and + 1.4 °C). Significant lengthening of the warm season was also found for temperature thresholds 0-8 °C. Shifts of seasonality and intensity occurred in climatic responses of all tree-ring chronologies after development of water reservoirs. Patterns of these shifts, however, depended on species-specific sensitivity to climatic modification, distance from reservoirs, and physiographic regions. Mitigation of climate continentality and extremes by reservoirs appears to have offset possible negative effects of warming on tree growth.}, }
@article {pmid34253789, year = {2021}, author = {Taylor, W and Hart, I and Pan, C and Bayarsaikhan, J and Murdoch, J and Caspari, G and Klinge, M and Pearson, K and Bikhumar, U and Shnaider, S and Abdykanova, A and Bittner, P and Zahir, M and Jarman, N and Williams, M and Pettigrew, D and Petraglia, M and Lee, C and Dixon, EJ and Boivin, N}, title = {High altitude hunting, climate change, and pastoral resilience in eastern Eurasia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {14287}, pmid = {34253789}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The transition from hunting to herding transformed the cold, arid steppes of Mongolia and Eastern Eurasia into a key social and economic center of the ancient world, but a fragmentary archaeological record limits our understanding of the subsistence base for early pastoral societies in this key region. Organic material preserved in high mountain ice provides rare snapshots into the use of alpine and high altitude zones, which played a central role in the emergence of East Asian pastoralism. Here, we present the results of the first archaeological survey of melting ice margins in the Altai Mountains of western Mongolia, revealing a near-continuous record of more than 3500 years of human activity. Osteology, radiocarbon dating, and collagen fingerprinting analysis of wooden projectiles, animal bone, and other artifacts indicate that big-game hunting and exploitation of alpine ice played a significant role during the emergence of mobile pastoralism in the Altai, and remained a core element of pastoral adaptation into the modern era. Extensive ice melting and loss of wildlife in the study area over recent decades, driven by a warming climate, poaching, and poorly regulated hunting, presents an urgent threat to the future viability of herding lifeways and the archaeological record of hunting in montane zones.}, }
@article {pmid34253748, year = {2021}, author = {Akbar, S and Saritha, SK}, title = {Quantum inspired community detection for analysis of biodiversity change driven by land-use conversion and climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {14332}, pmid = {34253748}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Community detection remains little explored in the analysis of biodiversity change. The challenges linked with global biodiversity change have also multiplied manifold in the past few decades. Moreover, most studies concerning biodiversity change lack the quantitative treatment central to species distribution modeling. Empirical analysis of species distribution and abundance is thus integral to the study of biodiversity loss and biodiversity alterations. Community detection is therefore expected to efficiently model the topological aspect of biodiversity change driven by land-use conversion and climate change; given that it has already proven superior for diverse problems in the domain of social network analysis and subgroup discovery in complex systems. Thus, quantum inspired community detection is proposed as a novel technique to predict biodiversity change considering tiger population in eighteen states of India; leading to benchmarking of two novel datasets. Elements of land-use conversion and climate change are explored to design these datasets viz.-Landscape based distribution and Number of tiger reserves based distribution respectively; for predicting regions expected to maximize Tiger population growth. Furthermore, validation of the proposed framework on the said datasets is performed using standard community detection metrics like-Modularity, Normalized Mutual Information (NMI), Adjusted Rand Index (ARI), Degree distribution, Degree centrality and Edge-betweenness centrality. Quantum inspired community detection has also been successful in demonstrating an association between biodiversity change, land-use conversion and climate change; validated statistically by Pearson's correlation coefficient and p value test. Finally, modularity distribution based on parameter tuning establishes the superiority of the second dataset based on the number of Tiger reserves-in predicting regions maximizing Tiger population growth fostering species distribution and abundance; apart from scripting a stronger correlation of biodiversity change with land-use conversion.}, }
@article {pmid34252853, year = {2021}, author = {Drechsler, M and Gerling, C and Keuler, K and Leins, J and Sturm, A and Wätzold, F}, title = {A quantitative approach for the design of robust and cost-effective conservation policies under uncertain climate change: The case of grasshopper conservation in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {296}, number = {}, pages = {113201}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113201}, pmid = {34252853}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Germany ; *Grasshoppers ; Policy ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate is a major determinant of the world's distribution of biodiversity and species ranges are expected to shift as the climate changes. For conservation policies to be cost-effective in the long run these changes need to be taken into account. To some extent, policies can be adapted over time, but transaction costs, lock-in effects and path dependence limit the extent to which such adaptation is possible. Thus it is desirable that conservation policies be designed so that they are cost-effective in the long run even without future adaptations. Given that the future climate change is highly uncertain, the policies need to be robust to climatic uncertainty. In this paper we present an approach for the robustness analysis with regard to the cost-effectiveness of conservation policies in the face of uncertain climate change. The approach is applied to the conservation of a grasshopper species in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein. For the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of considered policies we develop a climate-ecological-economic model. We show that in the near future all considered policies have a similar level of robustness, while in the more distant future the policies differ substantially in their robustness and a trade-off emerges between the expected performance and robustness of a policy.}, }
@article {pmid34249221, year = {2021}, author = {Teyton, A and Abramson, DM}, title = {The Formation of Belief: An Examination of Factors That Influence Climate Change Belief Among Hurricane Katrina Survivors.}, journal = {Environmental justice (Print)}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {169-177}, doi = {10.1089/env.2020.0041}, pmid = {34249221}, issn = {1939-4071}, abstract = {Differences in population-level climate change beliefs have been identified, which are often attributable to coastline proximity, urban-rural classifications, race, ethnicity, political affiliation, gender, education, socioeconomic status, and age. This study assessed the impact of spatial, experiential, and demographic-related characteristics on climate change beliefs among a population of Hurricane Katrina survivors. Participants from the Gulf Coast Child and Family Health Study who answered climate change belief questions were included in this analysis. Race was found to be the most critical contributor to climate change belief, where the adjusted odds of white individuals believing in climate change were 0.2 times the odds of Black individuals believing in climate change (confidence interval: 0.1-0.4). Other sociodemographic factors, such as age, gender, income, and education, were not found to be significant. Several theoretical perspectives were considered to explain the variation in climate change beliefs, including social vulnerability, environmental deprivation, and political ideology. Future research as to why these racial differences exist should be conducted. By doing so, climate change communication, education, and mitigation and adaptation strategies may be improved.}, }
@article {pmid34249059, year = {2021}, author = {Fraga, H and Santos, JA}, title = {Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Chilling and Forcing for the Main Fresh Fruit Regions in Portugal.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {689121}, pmid = {34249059}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Air temperature plays a major role in the growth cycle of fruit trees. Chilling and forcing are two of the main mechanisms that drive temperate fruit development, namely dormancy and active plant development. Given the strong sensitivity of these crops to air temperature and the foreseeable warming under future climates, it becomes imperative to analyze climate change impacts for fruit trees. The fruit sector in Portugal has risen significantly over the last decades, gaining increasing importance both internally and through exports. The present research assesses the impacts of climate change on the chilling and forcing for economically relevant fruit trees in Portugal, namely apples, oranges, pears, and plums. To assess temperate fruit chilling and forcing conditions, the chilling portions (CP) and growing degree-hours (GDH) were computed over Portugal, for the recent-past (1989-2005) and future (2021-2080) periods, following two anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Future climate data were obtained from four regional-global climate model pairs to account for model uncertainties. Bias-correction methodologies were also applied. A spatial analysis over the main regions with PDO "Protected Denomination of Origin" or PDI "Protected Geographical Indication" of origin of each fruit tree was performed. Future projections show a clear decrease in chilling for all regions and fruit types in Portugal. Nonetheless, given the current chilling values in Portugal and the relative importance of chilling accumulation for each fruit type, these changes are more significant for certain varieties of apples than for other types of fruit. Regarding forcing, the future projections highlight an increase in its values throughout the different fruit tree regions in Portugal, which should lead to earlier phenological timings. These changes may bring limitations to some of the most important Portuguese temperate fruit regions. The planning of suitable adaptation measures against these threats is critical to control the risk of exposure to climate change, thus warranting the future sustainability of the Portuguese fruit sector, which is currently of foremost relevance to the national food security and economy.}, }
@article {pmid34247404, year = {2021}, author = {Breth-Petersen, M and Rychetnik, L and Barratt, AL and Zhang, Y}, title = {An Australian glossary to aid multisectoral research and collaborations to address health and climate change.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {215}, number = {4}, pages = {154-156.e1}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.51161}, pmid = {34247404}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Dictionaries as Topic ; Environmental Policy ; Health Equity ; Humans ; *Intersectoral Collaboration ; Sustainable Development ; }, }
@article {pmid34247353, year = {2021}, author = {Chen, L}, title = {Environmental cost of sustainable development and climate change: can SAARC shift some liability with renewable energy and efficiency?.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {47}, pages = {67137-67149}, pmid = {34247353}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; *Economic Development ; Renewable Energy ; *Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {Sustainable development holds the key not to resolve the problems every nation is facing these days but also for long-lasting effects. In the current era of digital age, each nation wants to achieve sustainable development for their future generations. In addition, environmental sustainability is an imperative module to achieve sustainable development. Hence, the present research work scrutinizes the energy efficiency, CO2 emission, and renewable energy on the sustainable development of SAARC countries through World Bank sample set from 1995 to 2019. The results infer that CO2 emissions, renewable energy, energy efficiency, GDP, and FDI show a strong correlation with sustainable development in SAARC counties. Furthermore, renewable energy and energy efficiency have been shown to be reliable instruments for reducing CO2 emissions and achieving sustainable development in SAARC countries. This research will help policymakers take preventative and constructive actions to achieve sustainable development by reducing CO2 emissions and uplifting the drivers of sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid34247086, year = {2021}, author = {Sousa, A and Alves, F and Arranz, P and Dinis, A and Fernandez, M and González García, L and Morales, M and Lettrich, M and Encarnação Coelho, R and Costa, H and Capela Lourenço, T and Azevedo, NMJ and Frazão Santos, C}, title = {Climate change vulnerability of cetaceans in Macaronesia: Insights from a trait-based assessment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {795}, number = {}, pages = {148652}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148652}, pmid = {34247086}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bottle-Nosed Dolphin ; Cetacea ; Climate Change ; Spain ; *Whales, Pilot ; }, abstract = {Over the last decades global warming has caused an increase in ocean temperature, acidification and oxygen loss which has led to changes in nutrient cycling and primary production affecting marine species at multiple trophic levels. While knowledge about the impacts of climate change in cetacean's species is still scarce, practitioners and policymakers need information about the species at risk to guide the implementation of conservation measures. To assess cetacean's vulnerability to climate change in the biogeographic region of Macaronesia, we adapted the Marine Mammal Climate Vulnerability Assessment (MMCVA) method and applied it to 21 species management units using an expert elicitation approach. Results showed that over half (62%) of the units assessed presented Very High (5 units) or High (8 units) vulnerability scores. Very High vulnerability scores were found in archipelago associated units of short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) and common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), namely in the Canary Islands and Madeira, as well as Risso's dolphins (Grampus griseus) in the Canary Islands. Overall, certainty scores ranged from Very High to Moderate for 67% of units. Over 50% of units showed a high potential for distribution, abundance and phenology changes as a response to climate change. With this study we target current and future information needs of conservation managers in the region, and guide research and monitoring efforts, while contributing to the improvement and validation of trait-based vulnerability approaches under a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid34247067, year = {2021}, author = {Alvarenga, DO and Rousk, K}, title = {Indirect effects of climate change inhibit N2 fixation associated with the feathermoss Hylocomium splendens in subarctic tundra.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {795}, number = {}, pages = {148676}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148676}, pmid = {34247067}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Cyanobacteria ; Ecosystem ; *Nitrogen Fixation ; Tundra ; }, abstract = {Mosses can be responsible for up to 100% of net primary production in arctic and subarctic tundra, and their associations with diazotrophic cyanobacteria have an important role in increasing nitrogen (N) availability in these pristine ecosystems. Predictions about the consequences of climate change in subarctic environments point to increased N mineralization in soil and higher litter deposition due to warming. It is not clear yet how these indirect climate change effects impact moss-cyanobacteria associations and N2 fixation. This work aimed to evaluate the effects of increased N and litter input on biological N2 fixation rates associated with the feathermoss Hylocomium splendens from a tundra heath. H. splendens samples were collected near Abisko, northern Sweden, from a field experiment with annual additions of ammonium chloride and dried birch litter and the combination of both for three years. Samples were analyzed for N2 fixation, cyanobacterial colonization, C and N content and pH. Despite the high N additions, no significant differences in moss N content were found. However, differences between treatments were observed in N2 fixation rates, cyanobacterial colonization and pH, with the combined ammonium+litter treatment causing a significant reduction in the number of branch-colonizing cyanobacteria and N2 fixation, and ammonium additions significantly lowering moss pH. A significant, positive relationship was found between N2 fixation rates, moss colonization by cyanobacteria and pH levels, showing a clear drop in N2 fixation rates at lower pH levels even if larger cyanobacterial populations were present. These results suggest that increased N availability and litter deposition resulting from climate change not only interferes with N2 fixation directly, but also acidifies moss microhabitats and reduces the abundance of associated cyanobacteria, which could eventually impact the N cycle in the Subarctic.}, }
@article {pmid34246141, year = {2021}, author = {Kolanowska, M and Michalska, E and Konowalik, K}, title = {The impact of global warming on the niches and pollinator availability of sexually deceptive orchid with a single pollen vector.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {795}, number = {}, pages = {148850}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148850}, pmid = {34246141}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Australia ; Flowers ; Global Warming ; *Orchidaceae ; Pollen ; *Pollination ; }, abstract = {Orchidaceae are among the most endangered plants in the world. Considering the sensitive nature of pollinator-plant relationship the most vulnerable are species which are dependent on a single pollen vector. In this paper the future distribution of suitable niches of Australian sexually deceptive orchid Leporella fimbriata and its pollinator (Myrmecia urens) was estimated using three machine learning algorithms. While the potential range of fringed hare orchid depending on modelling method will be larger or slightly reduced than currently observed, the ant will face significant loss of suitable niches. As a result of global warming the overlap of orchid and its only pollen vector will most probably decrease. The unavailability of pollen vector will lead to decreased reproductive success and as a result it will be a great threat for L. fimbriata existence.}, }
@article {pmid34245718, year = {2021}, author = {Lin, BB and Ossola, A and Alberti, M and Andersson, E and Bai, X and Dobbs, C and Elmqvist, T and Evans, KL and Frantzeskaki, N and Fuller, RA and Gaston, KJ and Haase, D and Jim, CY and Konijnendijk, C and Nagendra, H and Niemelä, J and McPhearson, T and Moomaw, WR and Parnell, S and Pataki, D and Ripple, WJ and Tan, PY}, title = {Integrating solutions to adapt cities for climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {7}, pages = {e479-e486}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00135-2}, pmid = {34245718}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Germany ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {Record climate extremes are reducing urban liveability, compounding inequality, and threatening infrastructure. Adaptation measures that integrate technological, nature-based, and social solutions can provide multiple co-benefits to address complex socioecological issues in cities while increasing resilience to potential impacts. However, there remain many challenges to developing and implementing integrated solutions. In this Viewpoint, we consider the value of integrating across the three solution sets, the challenges and potential enablers for integrating solution sets, and present examples of challenges and adopted solutions in three cities with different urban contexts and climates (Freiburg, Germany; Durban, South Africa; and Singapore). We conclude with a discussion of research directions and provide a road map to identify the actions that enable successful implementation of integrated climate solutions. We highlight the need for more systematic research that targets enabling environments for integration; achieving integrated solutions in different contexts to avoid maladaptation; simultaneously improving liveability, sustainability, and equality; and replicating via transfer and scale-up of local solutions. Cities in systematically disadvantaged countries (sometimes referred to as the Global South) are central to future urban development and must be prioritised. Helping decision makers and communities understand the potential opportunities associated with integrated solutions for climate change will encourage urgent and deliberate strides towards adapting cities to the dynamic climate reality.}, }
@article {pmid34245716, year = {2021}, author = {Dasgupta, S and van Maanen, N and Gosling, SN and Piontek, F and Otto, C and Schleussner, CF}, title = {Effects of climate change on combined labour productivity and supply: an empirical, multi-model study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {7}, pages = {e455-e465}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00170-4}, pmid = {34245716}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Efficiency ; Forecasting ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although effects on labour is one of the most tangible and attributable climate impact, our quantification of these effects is insufficient and based on weak methodologies. Partly, this gap is due to the inability to resolve different impact channels, such as changes in time allocation (labour supply) and slowdown of work (labour productivity). Explicitly resolving those in a multi-model inter-comparison framework can help to improve estimates of the effects of climate change on labour effectiveness.<br><br>METHODS: In this empirical, multi-model study, we used a large collection of micro-survey data aggregated to subnational regions across the world to estimate new, robust global and regional temperature and wet-bulb globe temperature exposure-response functions (ERFs) for labour supply. We then assessed the uncertainty in existing labour productivity response functions and derived an augmented mean function. Finally, we combined these two dimensions of labour into a single compound metric (effective labour effects). This combined measure allowed us to estimate the effect of future climate change on both the number of hours worked and on the productivity of workers during their working hours under 1&#xb7;5&#xb0;C, 2&#xb7;0&#xb0;C, and 3&#xb7;0&#xb0;C of global warming. We separately analysed low-exposure (indoors or outdoors in the shade) and high-exposure (outdoor in the sun) sectors.<br><br>FINDINGS: We found differentiated empirical regional and sectoral ERF's for labour supply. Current climate conditions already negatively affect labour effectiveness, particularly in tropical countries. Future climate change will reduce global total labour in the low-exposure sectors by 18 percentage points (range -48&#xb7;8 to 5&#xb7;3) under a scenario of 3&#xb7;0&#xb0;C warming (24&#xb7;8 percentage points in the high-exposure sectors). The reductions will be 25&#xb7;9 percentage points (-48&#xb7;8 to 2&#xb7;7) in Africa, 18&#xb7;6 percentage points (-33&#xb7;6 to 5&#xb7;3) in Asia, and 10&#xb7;4 percentage points (-35&#xb7;0 to 2&#xb7;6) in the Americas in the low-exposure sectors. These regional effects are projected to be substantially higher for labour outdoors in full sunlight compared with indoors (or outdoors in the shade) with the average reductions in total labour projected to be 32&#xb7;8 percentage points (-66&#xb7;3 to 1&#xb7;6) in Africa, 25&#xb7;0 percentage points (-66&#xb7;3 to 7&#xb7;0) in Asia, and 16&#xb7;7 percentage points (-45&#xb7;5 to 4&#xb7;4) in the Americas.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Both labour supply and productivity are projected to decrease under future climate change in most parts of the world, and particularly in tropical regions. Parts of sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, and southeast Asia are at highest risk under future warming scenarios. The heterogeneous regional response functions suggest that it is necessary to move away from one-size-fits-all response functions to investigate the climate effect on labour. Our findings imply income and distributional consequences in terms of increased inequality and poverty, especially in low-income countries, where the labour effects are projected to be high.<br><br>FUNDING: COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).}, }
@article {pmid34244062, year = {2021}, author = {Etzel, RA}, title = {Foreword: Climate change and children.}, journal = {Current problems in pediatric and adolescent health care}, volume = {51}, number = {6}, pages = {101026}, doi = {10.1016/j.cppeds.2021.101026}, pmid = {34244062}, issn = {1538-3199}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34244061, year = {2021}, author = {Philipsborn, RP and Cowenhoven, J and Bole, A and Balk, SJ and Bernstein, A}, title = {A pediatrician's guide to climate change-informed primary care.}, journal = {Current problems in pediatric and adolescent health care}, volume = {51}, number = {6}, pages = {101027}, doi = {10.1016/j.cppeds.2021.101027}, pmid = {34244061}, issn = {1538-3199}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; Pediatricians ; Primary Health Care ; }, abstract = {Despite the urgency of the climate crisis and mounting evidence linking climate change to child health harms, pediatricians do not routinely engage with climate change in the office. Each primary care visit offers opportunities to screen for and support children burdened with risks to health that are increasingly intense due to climate change. Routine promotion of healthy behaviors also aligns with some needed-and powerful-solutions to the climate crisis. For some patients, including those engaged in athletics, those with asthma and allergies, or those with complex healthcare needs, preparedness for environmental risks and disasters worsened by climate change is a critical component of disease prevention and management. For all patients, anticipatory guidance topics that are already mainstays of pediatric best practices are related closely to needed guidance to keep children safe and promote health in the setting of compounding risks due to climate change. By considering climate change in routine care, pediatricians will be updating practice to align with evidence-based literature and better serving patients. This article provides a framework for pediatricians to provide climate-informed primary care during the structure of pediatric well child and other visits.}, }
@article {pmid34244060, year = {2021}, author = {Uddin, R and Philipsborn, R and Smith, D and Mutic, A and Thompson, LM}, title = {A global child health perspective on climate change, migration and human rights.}, journal = {Current problems in pediatric and adolescent health care}, volume = {51}, number = {6}, pages = {101029}, doi = {10.1016/j.cppeds.2021.101029}, pmid = {34244060}, issn = {1538-3199}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Family ; Global Health ; Human Rights ; Humans ; Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Current indicators of anthropogenic climate change are foreboding and demand immediate collaborative action and policy change to reduce carbon emissions rapidly. Human and environmental effects of climate change are already widespread. Large-scale disruptive disasters and weather-related events have downstream and cascading effects on livelihoods, national economies, population health and global human rights. These effects create human displacement and migration crises with far-reaching implications for children. Displacement and migration, both within and across national borders, have sequelae for the physical and mental health of children. Young children are vulnerable-both physiologically and developmentally immature-and dependent on others for safety and resources. They also are least responsible for the climate crisis. Child health threats stemming from displacement and migration exemplify questions of social and intergenerational injustice inherent in the climate crisis. Pediatric health care providers are increasingly called upon to care for children and ensure access to care for children who have experienced displacement from climate change, even as dire predictions for the future are escalating climate adaptation efforts. Pediatric health care providers have a role in these efforts-to identify and advocate for those children most at risk from climate change and to bolster clinical care and education strategies to prevent harm to our patients and children. This paper provides a global perspective on climate change for pediatric providers, including how climate change reflects and reinforces colonial legacies that harm child health. We provide action steps for those providers who care for children who have been displaced in the U.S. and who advocate for children's health globally.}, }
@article {pmid34242339, year = {2021}, author = {Priestley, RK and Heine, Z and Milfont, TL}, title = {Public understanding of climate change-related sea-level rise.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {7}, pages = {e0254348}, pmid = {34242339}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Sea Level Rise ; }, abstract = {Sea-level rise resulting from climate change is impacting coasts around the planet. There is strong scientific consensus about the amount of sea-level rise to 2050 (0.24-0.32 m) and a range of projections to 2100, which vary depending on the approach used and the mitigation measures taken to reduce carbon emissions. Despite this strong scientific consensus regarding the reality of climate change-related sea-level rise, and the associated need to engage publics in adaptation and mitigation efforts, there is a lack of empirical evidence regarding people's understanding of the issue. Here we investigate public understanding of the amount, rate and causes of sea-level rise. Data from a representative sample of New Zealand adults showed a suprising tendency for the public to overestimate the scientifically plausible amount of sea-level rise by 2100 and to identify melting sea ice as its primary causal mechanism. These findings will be valuable for scientists communicating about sea-level rise, communicators seeking to engage publics on the issue of sea-level rise, and media reporting on sea-level rise.}, }
@article {pmid34239989, year = {2021}, author = {Morin, S and Samacoïts, R and François, H and Carmagnola, CM and Abegg, B and Demiroglu, OC and Pons, M and Soubeyroux, JM and Lafaysse, M and Franklin, S and Griffiths, G and Kite, D and Hoppler, AA and George, E and Buontempo, C and Almond, S and Dubois, G and Cauchy, A}, title = {Pan-European meteorological and snow indicators of climate change impact on ski tourism.}, journal = {Climate services}, volume = {22}, number = {}, pages = {100215}, pmid = {34239989}, issn = {2405-8807}, abstract = {Ski tourism plays a major socio-economic role in the snowy and mountainous areas of Europe such as the Alps, the Pyrenees, Nordic Europe, Eastern Europe, Anatolia, etc. Past and future climate change has an impact on the operating conditions of ski resorts, due to their reliance on natural snowfall and favorable conditions for snowmaking. However, there is currently a lack of assessment of past and future operating conditions of ski resorts at the pan-European scale in the context of climate change. The presented work aims at filling this gap, as part of the "European Tourism" Sectoral Information System (SIS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). The Mountain Tourism Meteorological and Snow Indicators (MTMSI) were co-designed with representatives of the ski tourism industry, including consulting companies. They were derived from statistically adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate projections (multiple GCM/RCM pairs for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using the UERRA 5.5 km resolution surface reanalysis as a reference, used as input to the snow cover model Crocus, with and without accounting for snow management (grooming, snowmaking). Results are generated for 100 m elevation bands for NUTS-3 geographical areas spanning all areas relevant to ski tourism in Europe. This article introduces the underpinning elements for the generation of this product, and illustrates results at the pan-European scale as well as for smaller scale case studies. A dedicated visualization app allows for easy navigation into the multiple dimensions of this dataset, thereby fulfilling the needs of a broad range of users.}, }
@article {pmid34239114, year = {2021}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change made North America's deadly heatwave 150 times more likely.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-01869-0}, pmid = {34239114}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid34238692, year = {2021}, author = {Gutschow, B and Gray, B and Ragavan, MI and Sheffield, PE and Philipsborn, RP and Jee, SH}, title = {The intersection of pediatrics, climate change, and structural racism: Ensuring health equity through climate justice.}, journal = {Current problems in pediatric and adolescent health care}, volume = {51}, number = {6}, pages = {101028}, doi = {10.1016/j.cppeds.2021.101028}, pmid = {34238692}, issn = {1538-3199}, mesh = {Child ; Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; Health Promotion ; Humans ; *Pediatrics ; *Racism ; Social Justice ; }, abstract = {Understanding and intervening at the intersection of climate change and child health disparities require pediatric providers to broaden their competency with structural determinants of health - even in the clinic. The environmental effects of climate change at the community level intersect in complex ways with structural racism and social influences of health. Climate injustice is further evident in policies and practices that disproportionately affect low-income communities and communities of color through exposure to harmful pollutants from industrial plants, heavy vehicular traffic, and flooding waterways, as well as to harm from degraded civic infrastructure such as leaking water lines and unsafe bridges. To support child health, pediatric providers must recognize the environmental health harms posed to children and multiplied by climate change as well as identify opportunities to center the voices of families and communities to dismantle these inequities. In this article, three case examples demonstrate the links between structural racism, climate change and child health. We then use a healing centered engagement approach to offer specific suggestions for how pediatric providers can actively promote health and resilience, advocate for patient needs, and contribute to efforts to change structural racism in existing practices and institutions.}, }
@article {pmid34238493, year = {2021}, author = {Bigi, M and Florin, &#xc9; and Remy, B and Verley, L and Pradel, A and Yaye, HS}, title = {[Fighting global warming in the operating room].}, journal = {Revue de l'infirmiere}, volume = {70}, number = {272}, pages = {28-29}, doi = {10.1016/j.revinf.2021.04.009}, pmid = {34238493}, issn = {1293-8505}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Operating Rooms ; Paris ; Recycling ; }, abstract = {At the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital group (AP-HP, Paris), the central operating room teams embarked, in 2017, on a project to reduce the ecological impact of the procedures performed there. The results are convincing: reduction of the carbon footprint of anesthetic gases, reduction of waste and improvement of its sorting, recycling of metals. The project has spread to the other operating rooms in the hospital group, with strong support from professionals.}, }
@article {pmid34235703, year = {2021}, author = {Wu, X and Sadiq, M and Chien, F and Ngo, QT and Nguyen, AT and Trinh, TT}, title = {Testing role of green financing on climate change mitigation: Evidences from G7 and E7 countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {47}, pages = {66736-66750}, pmid = {34235703}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Economic Development ; Energy-Generating Resources ; *Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {The study estimates the long-run dynamics of a cleaner environment in promoting the gross domestic product of E7 and G7 countries. The recent study intends to estimate the climate change mitigation factor for a cleaner environment with the GDP of E7 countries and G7 countries from 2010 to 2018. For long-run estimation, second-generation panel data techniques including augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillip-Peron technique and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) techniques are applied to draw the long-run inference. The results of the study are robust with VECM technique. The outcomes of the study revealed that climate change mitigation indicators significantly affect the GDP of G7 countries than that of E7 countries. The GDP of both E7 and G7 countries is found depleting due to less clean environment. However, green financing techniques helps to clean the environment and reinforce the confidence of policymakers on the elevation of green economic growth in G7 and E7 countries. Furthermore, study results shown that a 1% rise in green financing index improves the environmental quality by 0.375% in G7 countries, while it purifies 0.3920% environment in E7 countries. There is a need to reduce environmental pollution, shift energy generation sources towards alternative, innovative and green sources.The study also provides different policy implications for the stakeholders guiding to actively promote financial hedging for green financing. So that climate change and envoirnmental pollution reduction could be achieved effectively. The novelty of the study lies in study framework.}, }
@article {pmid34235625, year = {2021}, author = {Hussain, S and Ulhassan, Z and Brestic, M and Zivcak, M and Weijun Zhou,  and Allakhverdiev, SI and Yang, X and Safdar, ME and Yang, W and Liu, W}, title = {Photosynthesis research under climate change.}, journal = {Photosynthesis research}, volume = {150}, number = {1-3}, pages = {5-19}, pmid = {34235625}, issn = {1573-5079}, support = {31871570//national natural science foundation of china/ ; }, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Electron Transport ; Photosynthesis ; *Plant Leaves/metabolism ; Ribulose-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Increasing global population and climate change uncertainties have compelled increased photosynthetic efficiency and yields to ensure food security over the coming decades. Potentially, genetic manipulation and minimization of carbon or energy losses can be ideal to boost photosynthetic efficiency or crop productivity. Despite significant efforts, limited success has been achieved. There is a need for thorough improvement in key photosynthetic limiting factors, such as stomatal conductance, mesophyll conductance, biochemical capacity combined with Rubisco, the Calvin-Benson cycle, thylakoid membrane electron transport, nonphotochemical quenching, and carbon metabolism or fixation pathways. In addition, the mechanistic basis for the enhancement in photosynthetic adaptation to environmental variables such as light intensity, temperature and elevated CO2 requires further investigation. This review sheds light on strategies to improve plant photosynthesis by targeting these intrinsic photosynthetic limitations and external environmental factors.}, }
@article {pmid34235500, year = {2021}, author = {Tsagkaris, C and Moysidis, DV and Papazoglou, AS and Louka, AM and Kalaitzidis, K and Ahmad, S and Essar, MY}, title = {Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater raises public awareness of the effects of climate change on human health: The experience from Thessaloniki, Greece.}, journal = {The journal of climate change and health}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {100018}, pmid = {34235500}, issn = {2667-2782}, }
@article {pmid34232962, year = {2021}, author = {Beiser-McGrath, LF and Bernauer, T}, title = {Current surveys may underestimate climate change skepticism evidence from list experiments in Germany and the USA.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {7}, pages = {e0251034}, pmid = {34232962}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Germany ; Politics ; *Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {Strong public support is a prerequisite for ambitious and thus costly climate change mitigation policy, and strong public concern over climate change is a prerequisite for policy support. Why, then, do most public opinion surveys indicate rather high levels of concern and rather strong policy support, while de facto mitigation efforts in most countries remain far from ambitious? One possibility is that survey measures for public concern fail to fully reveal the true attitudes of citizens due to social desirability bias. In this paper, we implemented list-experiments in representative surveys in Germany and the United States (N = 3620 and 3640 respectively) to assess such potential bias. We find evidence that people systematically misreport, that is, understate their disbelief in human caused climate change. This misreporting is particularly strong amongst politically relevant subgroups. Individuals in the top 20% of the income distribution in the United States and supporters of conservative parties in Germany exhibit significantly higher climate change skepticism according to the list experiment, relative to conventional measures. While this does not definitively mean that climate skepticism is a widespread phenomenon in these countries, it does suggest that future research should reconsider how climate change concern is measured, and what subgroups of the population are more susceptible to misreporting and why. Our findings imply that public support for ambitious climate policy may be weaker than existing survey research suggests.}, }
@article {pmid34231907, year = {2021}, author = {Grevatt, WK}, title = {The archetype of the apocalypse. Analysing the pandemics of racism, COVID-19 and climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of analytical psychology}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {729-749}, pmid = {34231907}, issn = {1468-5922}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Enslavement ; *Homicide ; Humans ; Police ; *Political Activism ; *Psychoanalytic Theory ; *Racism ; United States ; }, abstract = {What we are witnessing in the present time in human history, in the 2020's, is a vortex of intersecting pandemics - jolting revelations that are unfolding with a terrific energy and force - so much so that we cannot ignore them or escape them. These include the world-wide pandemics of racism, COVID-19 and climate change. This paper argues that all of these swirling pandemics are manifestations of the archetype of the apocalypse, which is constellating now in a very powerful way. Any one of these phenomena could swallow humanity whole as a species. Together they represent a seemingly overwhelming challenge for us to meet over the next century of life on earth. If humanity cannot meet the challenge of these combined negative forces, it could simply perish. A multi-layered intersecting set of challenges such as this has never yet occurred in human history. We must therefore be very alert to what is going on, and as to how we can consciously mediate these threats, both individually and collectively. It also presents an unprecedented opportunity for humanity to evolve and grow psychologically both individually and collectively, nationally and globally.}, }
@article {pmid34231143, year = {2021}, author = {ElSaied, A and Farouk, H and Elhady, M and Almarid, ZD and Hashim, AM}, title = {Environmental monitoring of anthropogenic impacts and climate change: a case study from the national network of roads in Egypt.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {44}, pages = {63391-63411}, pmid = {34231143}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Egypt ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Economic development and land use/land cover (LULC) changes are deeply connected. Egypt has started the National Road Project to add 7000 km new roads to the 23.500 km existing network. The present study aimed at assessing anthropogenic impacts of the establishment and development of one of the newly developed arterial roads (Wadi Al-Natroun Al-Alamin road) on the LULC of surrounding region in relation to climate change during the period from 1986 to 2019. Using RS (remote sensing) techniques and four satellite images from 1986, 1999, 2011, and 2019, five classes were identified (vegetation, urban, water, agriculturally affected soils, and bare soils). The study area was divided based on different human activities into six areas of interest (AOIs). Results showed that massive changes have occurred during the 33-year period along the six AOIs and the five identified classes. Four climatic variables (annual mean temperature, maximum temperature of the warmest month, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month) have been used to investigate climatic conditions of the study area in 1986 and 2018 and link it to the continuous development in the study area. Results showed an average increase of 2°C in annual temperature and maximum temperature of the hottest month. In contrary, a significant decrease in the annual precipitation and precipitation of the wettest month has been documented. Statistical analysis results showed significant correlations between climatic conditions and economic development along the study area. Climate change and human development stress on both natural and artificial ecosystems of the study area have been discussed, and recommended measures for sustainable development and natural resources perseveration have been provided.}, }
@article {pmid34230848, year = {2021}, author = {Chipfupa, U and Tagwi, A and Wale, E}, title = {Psychological capital and climate change adaptation: Empirical evidence from smallholder farmers in South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1061}, pmid = {34230848}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {There are calls for better empirical models to inform climate change adaptation in smallholder agriculture. Hitherto adaptation studies have failed to comprehensively integrate non-cognitive behavioural factors (e.g. psychological capital), and there is also no common framework for measuring non-cognitive abilities of smallholder farmers. Hence, this study is the first attempt to assess how psychological capital affects climate change adaptation amongst smallholder farmers. The study estimated the multivariate probit regression model using data collected from 328 smallholder farmers in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. The results show an association between some psychological capital indicators and smallholder adaptation decisions. Social networks, having multiple farming objectives, access to credit and the type of farmer (irrigators vs. non-irrigators) were also significant in determining smallholders' adaptation decisions. In conclusion, the study recommends the need for practical ways for enhancing smallholders' endowment with key non-cognitive abilities. There is also a need for researchers to develop a comprehensive framework for assessing non-cognitive factors critical for climate change adaptation. This will improve the use of positive psychology theories to advance the literature on climate change adaptation. Support should also be provided to communities facing higher risks of climate change adaptation. More focus should also be given to improve smallholder farmers' ability to adapt, including access to affordable credit. The role of social networks in information sharing remains critical, and hence their promotion should be prioritised. The findings on multiple objectives in farming were unique to climate change adaptation research, and hence the indicator should be considered in future similar studies.}, }
@article {pmid34230847, year = {2021}, author = {Becker, P and Hagelsteen, M and Abrahamsson, M}, title = {'Too many mice make no lining for their nest' - Reasons and effects of parallel governmental structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1041}, pmid = {34230847}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Many African countries face escalating challenges of increasing disaster risk and anticipated impacts of climate change. Although disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) are tightly linked and comprising virtually identical practices in vulnerable countries in Southern Africa, research has identified parallel governance structures across the region. This study applied comparative case study research, based on 27 semi-structured interviews, to investigate the reasons for and effects of such parallel structures for DRR and CCA in Botswana, Mozambique, the Seychelles, Tanzania and Zambia. It revealed overwhelmingly negative effects in terms of unclear mandates and leadership, uncoordinated efforts, duplication of efforts, suboptimal use of resources and competition over resources and control. The study identified both external reasons for the parallel structures, in terms of global or international initiatives or incentives, and internal reasons, with regard to the history and quality of the governance structures. Although the identified negative effects are common to a range of complex nexuses, there is a clear distinction with the DRR-CCA nexus comprising virtually indistinguishable practices in Southern Africa. There is, as such, no practical reason for keeping them apart. The parallel structures for DRR and CCA are instead the result of pervasive institutionalisation across the region, driven by coercive, mimetic and normative pressures coming from both within and abroad. Although much point to the difficulties of changing the studied institutional arrangements, these parallel structures for DRR and CCA must be addressed if the populations in Southern Africa are to enjoy safety and sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid34230752, year = {2021}, author = {Limburg, KE and Daverat, F}, title = {COVID, Climate Change, and Professional Travel: Reflections by Fisheries Scientists During the Pandemic.}, journal = {Fisheries}, volume = {46}, number = {9}, pages = {442-444}, pmid = {34230752}, issn = {0363-2415}, }
@article {pmid34230528, year = {2021}, author = {Gómez Murciano, M and Liu, Y and Ünal, V and Sánchez LIzaso, JL}, title = {Comparative analysis of the social vulnerability assessment to climate change applied to fisheries from Spain and Turkey.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {13949}, pmid = {34230528}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The aim of this study is to assess the climate effects on fisheries from a bottom-up approach based on fishers' fishing experience, knowledge, and perceptions. To perform this task, a social vulnerability assessment was conducted in two different fishing areas: one in Spain and the other one in Turkey. The vulnerability was measured using the collected data and information through a structured questionnaire, and surveys were carried out among fishers in the Castelló (Spain) and the Aegean Sea (Turkey) between 2018 and 2019. Overall, the results indicated that the two studied regions have a moderate to high vulnerability and that the Aegean Sea was slightly more vulnerable than Castelló. It was also found that storms and temperature are the main climatic stressors that affect the fishing sector, and the economic indicators such as revenue from fishing in both regions showed high degrees of sensitivity. To reduce the vulnerability to climate change, adaptive measures should be implemented while taking into consideration the specific socio-economic and institutional characteristics of each region. In conclusion, the effects of climate change on the fishing sector and their social vulnerability are diverse. Consequently, there is no single climate measure that can minimize the vulnerability of fishing sectors in different regions.}, }
@article {pmid34229138, year = {2021}, author = {Chaudhary, VP and Chandra, R and Chaudhary, R and Bhattacharyya, R}, title = {Global warming potential and energy dynamics of conservation tillage practices for different rabi crops in the Indo-Gangetic Plains.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {296}, number = {}, pages = {113182}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113182}, pmid = {34229138}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Global Warming ; *Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Soil ; }, abstract = {A field experiment was conducted during 2007-2019 under various rabi (winter) crops (viz., wheat, maize, barley and mustard) on a Vertisol in sub-tropical Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) with different tillage systems to assess energy indices, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and carbon sustainability index in assured irrigated fields. The tillage systems were: no tillage sown by a zero till drill (NT), no tillage with retention of previous crop residues at 6 t ha[-1] and sowing by a happy turbo seeder (HT), and conventional tillage (CT) where sowing was performed by a multi-crop zero till drill after twice harrowing + twice tilling + once rotavator operations. Significantly higher input energy was observed in wheat followed by maize, barley and mustard. Among tillage systems, CT plots consumed higher input energy that was about 20, 21 to 22, 25 to 26 and 20-22% higher than HT and NT in wheat, maize, barley and mustard, respectively. However, output energy and energy use efficiency were highest in HT. The total GHG emission (kg CO2 equivalent ha[-1]) was highest in wheat (2,351) followed by maize (2,274), barley (1,859) and mustard (1,652). Among tillage systems, CT produced about 31-34%, 33-34%, 37-40% and 28-30% higher GHG emission than HT and NT under wheat, maize, barley and mustard, respectively. The CT plots had lower carbon sustainability index and carbon efficiency than ZT and HT in all crops. In short, HT recorded significantly higher energy use efficiency and lower global warming potential (GWP) than CT in all crops. Thus, HT could be a promising agro-technique for production of rabi crops in the IGP. Among rabi crops, barley production was energy efficient and had less GWP. In rabi crop production, the highest energy sources was mineral fertilizer use (25-49%) and second highest source was irrigation water (14-44%). These can be substituted with use of the organic sources of fertilizers and application of solar and wind power in irrigation, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid34228873, year = {2021}, author = {Richon, C and Tagliabue, A}, title = {Biogeochemical feedbacks associated with the response of micronutrient recycling by zooplankton to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {19}, pages = {4758-4770}, pmid = {34228873}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Feedback ; Micronutrients ; *Zooplankton ; }, abstract = {Recycling by zooplankton has emerged as an important process driving the cycling of essential micronutrients in the upper ocean. Resupply of nutrients by upper ocean recycling is itself controlled by multiple biotic and abiotic factors. Although the response of these drivers to climate change will shape future recycling rates and their stoichiometry, their magnitude and variability are unaddressed by climate change projections, which means potentially important feedbacks on surface biogeochemistry are neglected. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change under the high emissions RCP8.5 scenario on the recycling of the essential micronutrients Fe, Zn, Cu, Co and Mn and quantify the regional control by zooplankton food quality, prey quantity, sea surface temperature and zooplankton biomass. A statistical assessment of our model results reveals that the variability in recycling fluxes across all micronutrients is mainly driven by the variability of zooplankton and prey biomass. In contrast, the variability in micronutrient recycling stoichiometry and its response to climate change are more complex and is regulated by zooplankton food quality and prey quantity. Regionally, the relative influence of each driver on recycling changes in our model by the end of the 21st century. Temperature becomes an important driving factor in the polar regions while the expansion of oligotrophic regions leads to the importance of food quality increase for low and mid-latitudes. These responses lead to novel feedbacks that can amplify the response of surface ocean biogeochemistry and alter nutrient deficiency regimes.}, }
@article {pmid34228253, year = {2022}, author = {Sipari, S and Khalil, H and Magnusson, M and Evander, M and Hörnfeldt, B and Ecke, F}, title = {Climate change accelerates winter transmission of a zoonotic pathogen.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {51}, number = {3}, pages = {508-517}, pmid = {34228253}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {2017-00578//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; 2017-00867//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Arvicolinae ; Climate Change ; *Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome ; Humans ; *Puumala virus ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Many zoonotic diseases are weather sensitive, raising concern how their distribution and outbreaks will be affected by climate change. At northern high latitudes, the effect of global warming on especially winter conditions is strong. By using long term monitoring data (1980-1986 and 2003-2013) from Northern Europe on temperature, precipitation, an endemic zoonotic pathogen (Puumala orthohantavirus, PUUV) and its reservoir host (the bank vole, Myodes glareolus), we show that early winters have become increasingly wet, with a knock-on effect on pathogen transmission in its reservoir host population. Further, our study is the first to show a climate change effect on an endemic northern zoonosis, that is not induced by increased host abundance or distribution, demonstrating that climate change can also alter transmission intensity within host populations. Our results suggest that rainy early winters accelerate PUUV transmission in bank voles in winter, likely increasing the human zoonotic risk in the North.}, }
@article {pmid34221190, year = {2021}, author = {Al Dirani, A and Abebe, GK and Bahn, RA and Martiniello, G and Bashour, I}, title = {Exploring climate change adaptation practices and household food security in the Middle Eastern context: a case of small family farms in Central Bekaa, Lebanon.}, journal = {Food security}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {1029-1047}, pmid = {34221190}, issn = {1876-4517}, abstract = {Agriculture is the most natural resource-intensive and climate-sensitive sector. This study examines the perceptions and attitudes of small family farmers toward climate change and identifies adaptation strategies supporting household food security in the Middle Eastern context, Lebanon. The study uses cross-sectional, primary data of households that own small family farms in the Central Bekaa region. The results show that the majority of the households believe that climate change is occurring, has adverse impacts on livelihoods, and is attributable to human factors. They perceived an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall patterns over the last 20 years. In response, the households used multiple agricultural practices to adapt to climate change. Based on the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) scores, only 7.5% of the households were food secure, while 89% were mild to moderately food insecure. Generally, the households had modest access to nutritious diets. All the households used two or more environmentally sustainable agricultural practices. However, the use of multiple environmentally sustainable practices did not correlate with improved food security. This latter result may be due to the limited knowledge of the farmers about trade-offs between various climate change adaptation measures. The findings suggest the need to refocus research from the question of whether small family farmers are willing to adopt (or not) climate change adaptation practices to identifying those practices that are capable of balancing economic, social, and environmental goals in a specific context.}, }
@article {pmid34221128, year = {2021}, author = {Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Scovronick, N and Sera, F and Royé, D and Schneider, R and Tobias, A and Astrom, C and Guo, Y and Honda, Y and Hondula, DM and Abrutzky, R and Tong, S and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M and Saldiva, PHN and Lavigne, E and Correa, PM and Ortega, NV and Kan, H and Osorio, S and Kyselý, J and Urban, A and Orru, H and Indermitte, E and Jaakkola, JJK and Ryti, N and Pascal, M and Schneider, A and Katsouyanni, K and Samoli, E and Mayvaneh, F and Entezari, A and Goodman, P and Zeka, A and Michelozzi, P and de'Donato, F and Hashizume, M and Alahmad, B and Diaz, MH and De La Cruz Valencia, C and Overcenco, A and Houthuijs, D and Ameling, C and Rao, S and Ruscio, FD and Carrasco-Escobar, G and Seposo, X and Silva, S and Madureira, J and Holobaca, IH and Fratianni, S and Acquaotta, F and Kim, H and Lee, W and Iniguez, C and Forsberg, B and Ragettli, MS and Guo, YLL and Chen, BY and Li, S and Armstrong, B and Aleman, A and Zanobetti, A and Schwartz, J and Dang, TN and Dung, DV and Gillett, N and Haines, A and Mengel, M and Huber, V and Gasparrini, A}, title = {The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {492-500}, pmid = {34221128}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {MR/R013349/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; MR/S019669/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; P30 ES019776/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34220614, year = {2021}, author = {Gordon, DS}, title = {Extrinsic and Existential Mortality Risk in Reproductive Decision-Making: Examining the Effects of COVID-19 Experience and Climate Change Beliefs.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {644600}, pmid = {34220614}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {While the COVID-19 pandemic has presented an immediate risk to human life around the world, climate change poses an arguably greater-although less immediate-threat to our species' survival. Within the framework of life-history theory (LHT), this pre-registered study investigated whether extrinsic risk (i.e., external factors that pose a risk to an individual's life, e.g., COVID-19) and existential risk (i.e., risks with outcomes that threaten the existence of humans as a species, e.g., climate change) had similar or different relationships with reproductive decision-making. A UK representative sample of 325 participants between 18 and 35 years of age was asked to indicate their ideal number of children, ideal age to start having children, and whether their desire for a child had recently changed. Participants were asked about their experiences of COVID-19 and given a series of scales with which to assess their beliefs about climate change. In support of LHT, the study found evidence that knowing people who had been hospitalized with or died of COVID-19 was associated with a greater ideal number of children. Conversely, there was no clear evidence of a relationship between climate change beliefs and reproductive decision-making. The repercussions for understanding how we interpret and respond to different forms of mortality risk are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid34218144, year = {2021}, author = {Gómez Martín, E and Máñez Costa, M and Egerer, S and Schneider, UA}, title = {Assessing the long-term effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions under different climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {794}, number = {}, pages = {148515}, pmid = {34218144}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Floods ; }, abstract = {Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) have been gaining importance in many European cities to reduce floods' impacts. However, evidence of their effectiveness in reducing the impacts of droughts in rural areas are scarce. Besides, ignoring future climate conditions or the specific socio-economic context in which NBS is applied could decrease their long-term effectiveness. This study aims to stress the importance of developing scientifically-based and customised information on climate change impacts as a precondition for designing and implementing NBS. For that, a System Dynamic model was developed to analyse and understand the dynamic behaviour of NBS responding to different scenarios of climate change and socio-economic contexts. This article recognises the proactive involvement at all societal levels as an essential component to enhance and maintain ecosystem resilience and, therefore, NBS[1]effectiveness. Thus, participatory modelling activities were carried out to engage stakeholders in the model development process to obtain relevant bottom-up information and organise stakeholders' collective knowledge in a graphical structure that captures the system's main dynamics. The Medina del Campo Groundwater Body was used as a frame for the analysis. The study results highlight the need for developing scientifically-based and customised information on the impacts of climate change on NBS as an essential precondition to maintain their long-term effectiveness.}, }
@article {pmid34217397, year = {2021}, author = {Morfeld, P and Erren, TC}, title = {Countdown on health and climate change: too important for methodological errors.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {398}, number = {10294}, pages = {26}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00884-9}, pmid = {34217397}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Health Policy ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34217396, year = {2021}, author = {Kiesewetter, G and Amann, M and Milner, J and Liu, Z and Romanello, M}, title = {Countdown on health and climate change: too important for methodological errors - Authors' reply.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {398}, number = {10294}, pages = {26}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00878-3}, pmid = {34217396}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Health Policy ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34217341, year = {2021}, author = {Milán-García, J and Caparrós-Martínez, JL and Rueda-López, N and de Pablo Valenciano, J}, title = {Climate change-induced migration: a bibliometric review.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {74}, pmid = {34217341}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {*Bibliometrics ; China ; *Climate Change ; Efficiency ; Humans ; Publications ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This paper has reviewed the international research on the terms "climate change" and "human migration" from 1999 to 2019. To this end, a bibliometric and a cluster analysis by fractional accounting have been carried out using two of the most important databases: Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus. The research found and studied 140 documents from WoS Core Collection and 193 from Scopus.<br><br>RESULTS: The results show a continual increase in the number of articles published and citations received during the whole period studied. The U.S., U.K., Germany and China have been shown to be the most productive countries and there is a predominance of North American organizations supporting and fostering research on these topics.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The main contribution of this article is the analysis of new tendencies. The trend shows a transition from concepts such as vulnerability, climate change, land degradation, refugees and security to others such as concepts such as international migration, climate justice, sustainability, human rights and disaster risk reduction. Future research in this field should address the comparison of results from research focused on human beings to a focus on other living beings.}, }
@article {pmid34217072, year = {2021}, author = {Nicaretta, JE and Zapa, DMB and Couto, LFM and Heller, LM and Cavalcante, ASA and Cruvinel, LB and Melo Júnior, RD and Ferreira, LL and Nascimento, RMD and Soares, VE and Borges, LMF and Monteiro, CMO and Lopes, WDZ}, title = {Rhipicephalus microplus seasonal dynamic in a Cerrado biome, Brazil: An update data considering the global warming.}, journal = {Veterinary parasitology}, volume = {296}, number = {}, pages = {109506}, doi = {10.1016/j.vetpar.2021.109506}, pmid = {34217072}, issn = {1873-2550}, mesh = {Animals ; Brazil/epidemiology ; Cattle ; *Cattle Diseases/epidemiology ; Ecosystem ; Female ; *Global Warming ; *Rhipicephalus ; *Seasons ; *Tick Infestations/epidemiology/veterinary ; }, abstract = {The present study evaluated over two years the seasonal dynamics of Rhipicephalus microplus in a Cerrado biome of midwestern Brazil (Goiânia, Goiás) and correlated the current climatic conditions (environmental temperature, insolation, rainfall, relative humitidy and saturation deficit of the atmosphere) of this site with 30 years ago. In addition, the data collected in the present research were compared with climatic conditions data and R. microplus population dynamics conducted by our group in other regions (Formiga, Minas Gerais and Jaboticabal, São Paulo) within the same biome. For the parasitic phase dynamics, R. microplus females (4.5-8.0 mm) counts were performed on tick natural infested cows kept in Panicum maximum paddocks. To verify the larvae dynamics on pasture the flannel dragg technique on natural infested pasture was performed, and the height of the grass was measured. Five peaks of engorged R. microplus females on animals and larvae infestations on pastures were observed. Being three and two peaks during the rainy and dry season of the year, respectively. Insolation (r = 0.8758; P = 0.00009; R[2] = 0.7670), rainfall (r = -0.8572; P = 0.0002; R[2] = 0.7348), maximum environmental temperature in summer (r = 0.9999; P < 0.0087; R[2] = 0.9988) and the saturation deficit of the atmosphere in autumn (r = -0.9789; P = 0.0211; R[2] = 0.9582) influenced the seasonal dynamics of R. microplus larvae on pastures. While the forage height did not influence the number of larvae found on pasture (r = 0.1545; P = 0.7682; R[2] = 0.0239). The comparison between the climatic data of the last 30 years with the current climatological data (2012 to 2019) in the state of Goiás, and the comparison with R. microplus population dynamics from other two locations in the same biome indicated that the increase of the environmental temperature due to the global warming possibly is a determining factor which increase the number of one or up two tick annual peaks. In addition, this climatic variable was responsible for increase the population density of ticks on pastures and animals observed in July/winter of the present study, in comparison to other regions with the same biome, as discussed in this work.}, }
@article {pmid34216512, year = {2021}, author = {Alnajar, A and Bud Frazier, OH and Elgalad, A and Smith, PA and Shultz, JM}, title = {Preparing end-stage heart failure patients and care providers in the era of climate change-driven hurricanes.}, journal = {Journal of cardiac surgery}, volume = {36}, number = {10}, pages = {3491-3493}, doi = {10.1111/jocs.15784}, pmid = {34216512}, issn = {1540-8191}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; *Heart Failure/therapy ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Patients with end-stage congestive heart failure are at elevated risk for harm when extreme storms threaten and strike their communities. Individuals with compromised heart function require customized hurricane protection and preparedness approaches. We provide mitigation strategies for providers and their teams, as well as the patients themselves to ensure their safety and uninterrupted access to healthcare resources and quality care during hurricane impact and in the aftermath.}, }
@article {pmid34212619, year = {2021}, author = {Sun, QQ and Liu, C and Zheng, BJ}, title = {[Vegetation cover change and its response to climate change on the Loess Plateau, Northwest China based on ICEEMDAN method].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {2129-2137}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202106.011}, pmid = {34212619}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The long-term series of geographic data and remote sensing data contain noise and perio-dic fluctuation. We used the improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) to decompose the data of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, and temperature from 1982 to 2015 on per-pixels in the Loess Pla-teau to obtain residuals. Using the residual with less noise and periodic fluctuations, we examined the changes of NDVI and the relationship between NDVI and climatic factors. The results showed that the spatial change trend of NDVI was mainly increasing from 1982 to 2015 in the Loess Plateau. The significance of the change trend of residual NDVI (95.9%) was greater than the original NDVI (72.3%), with spatial variations. Temperature and precipitation could largely explain the changes in vegetation coverage. The proportions of areas with extremely significant positive and negative correlations between temperature and NDVI on the Loess Plateau were 83.7% and 13.9%, respectively, while that between precipitation and NDVI were 54.4% and 37.2%, respectively. There were obvious spatial variations in the responses of vegetation to climate change on the Loess Plateau. Different climatic factors had different effects on different types of vegetation. In general, temperature had stronger correlation with different vegetation than precipitation. Therefore, temperature was the main driving factor for the changes of vegetation cover in the Loess Plateau.}, }
@article {pmid34211421, year = {2021}, author = {Gaytan Camarillo, M and Ferguson, E and Ljevar, V and Spence, A}, title = {Big Changes Start With Small Talk: Twitter and Climate Change in Times of Coronavirus Pandemic.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {661395}, pmid = {34211421}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Behavioural scientists have been studying public perceptions to understand how and why people behave the way they do towards climate change. In recent times, enormous changes to behaviour and people's interactions have been brought about by the worldwide coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, unexpectedly and indefinitely; some of which have environmental implications (e.g., travelling less). An innovative way to analyse public perceptions and behaviour is with the use of social media to understand the discourse around climate change. This paper focuses on assessing changes in social media discourse around actions for climate change mitigation over time during the global pandemic. Twitter data were collected at three different points during the pandemic: February (time 1), June (time 2), and October 2020 (time 3). By using machine learning techniques, including recurrent neural networks (RNN) and unsupervised learning Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modelling, we identified tweets mentioning actions to mitigate climate change. The findings identified topics related to "government actions," "environmental behaviours," "sustainable production," and "awareness," among others. We found an increase in tweets identified as "action tweets" relating to climate change for time 2 and time 3 compared with time 1. In addition, we found that the topic of energy seemed to be of relevance within the public's perceptions of actions for climate change mitigation; this did not seem to change over time. We found that the topic of "government actions" was present across all time points and may have been influenced by political events at time 1, and by COVID-19 discourse at times 2 and 3. Moreover, topic changes over time within Twitter indicated a pattern that may have reflected restrictions on mobility as these tended to focus on individual and private sphere behaviours rather than group and public sphere behaviours. Changes in topic patterns may also reflect an increase in salience of certain behaviours (e.g., shopping), which may have received increased attention due to lockdown restrictions. Considering restrictions and adaptability challenges people face in times of a global pandemic may help to identify how to support sustainable behaviour change and the likely persistence of these changes.}, }
@article {pmid34208930, year = {2021}, author = {Wolters, EA and Steel, BS}, title = {Environmental Efficacy, Climate Change Beliefs, Ideology, and Public Water Policy Preferences.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {34208930}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Policy ; Oregon ; Public Policy ; Washington ; *Water ; }, abstract = {Water is an unpredictable and often overallocated resource in the American West, one that strains policy makers to come up with viable, and politically acceptable policies to mitigate water management concerns. While large federal reclamation projects once dominated western water management and provided ample water for large scale agricultural development as well as the urbanization of the West, water engineering alone is no longer sufficient or, in some cases, a politically acceptable policy option. As demand for water in the West increases with an ever-growing population, climate change is presenting a more challenging and potentially untenable, reality of even longer periods of drought and insufficient water quantity. The complexity of managing water resources under climate change conditions will require multifaceted and publicly acceptable strategies. This paper therefore examines water policy preferences of residents in four western states: Washington, Oregon, California, and Idaho. Using a public survey conducted in these states in 2019, we examine preferences pertaining to infrastructural, education, incentives and regulation specifically examining levels of support for varying policies based on climate change and environmental efficacy beliefs as well as geography, demographic variables, and political ideology. Results show support for all water policies surveyed, with the exception of charging higher rates for water during the hottest part of summer. The most preferred water policies pertained to tax incentives. Some variation of support exists based on gender, education, environmental values, efficacy, state residency and belief in anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34208410, year = {2021}, author = {Goicoechea, N and Jiménez, L and Prieto, E and Gogorcena, Y and Pascual, I and Irigoyen, JJ and Antolín, MC}, title = {Assessment of Nutritional and Quality Properties of Leaves and Musts in Three Local Spanish Grapevine Varieties Undergoing Controlled Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {34208410}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2018//Fundaci&#xf3;n Universitaria de Navarra/ ; AGL2017-83358-R//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; AEI/FEDER, UE//European Regional Development Fund/ ; Group A09-20R//ARAG&#xd3;N GOVERNMENT/ ; }, abstract = {The market demand together with the need for alternatives to withstand climate change led to the recovery of autochthonous grapevine varieties. Under climate change, the summer pruning of vineyards may lead to an increase of vegetative residuals of nutritional and medicinal interest. The objectives of our study were (1) to evaluate the nutritional properties of the leaves of three local Spanish grapevines (Tinto Velasco, TV, Pasera, PAS, and Ambrosina, AMB) when grown under climate change conditions, and (2) to test the potentiality of these grapevines as suitable candidates to be cultivated under climate change scenarios based on the quality of their must. Experimental assays were performed with fruit-bearing cuttings grown in temperature gradient greenhouses that simulate rising CO2 (700 μmol mol[-][1]) and warming (ambient temperature +4 °C), either acting alone or in combination. TV and AMB were the most and the least affected by air temperature and CO2 concentration, respectively. The interaction of elevated CO2 with high temperature induced the accumulation of proteins and phenolic compounds in leaves of TV, thus enhancing their nutritional properties. In PAS, the negative effect of high temperature on protein contents was compensated for by elevated CO2. Warming was the most threatening scenario for maintaining the must quality in the three varieties, but elevated CO2 exerted a beneficial effect when acting alone and compensated for the negative effects of high temperatures. While TV may be a candidate to be cultivated in not very warm areas (higher altitudes or colder latitudes), PAS behaved as the most stable genotype under different environmental scenarios, making it the most versatile candidate for cultivation in areas affected by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34208381, year = {2021}, author = {Blyth, C and Christmas, MJ and Bickerton, DC and Breed, MF and Foster, NR and Guerin, GR and Mason, ARG and Lowe, AJ}, title = {Genomic, Habitat, and Leaf Shape Analyses Reveal a Possible Cryptic Species and Vulnerability to Climate Change in a Threatened Daisy.}, journal = {Life (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {34208381}, issn = {2075-1729}, support = {n/a//Australian Government's 'Threatened Species Recovery Fund' (2016-17)/ ; n/a//Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment/ ; }, abstract = {Olearia pannosa is a plant species listed as vulnerable in Australia. Two subspecies are currently recognised (O. pannosa subsp. pannosa (silver daisy) and O. pannosa subsp. cardiophylla (velvet daisy)), which have overlapping ranges but distinct leaf shape. Remnant populations face threats from habitat fragmentation and climate change. We analysed range-wide genomic data and leaf shape variation to assess population diversity and divergence and to inform conservation management strategies. We detected three distinct genetic groupings and a likely cryptic species. Samples identified as O. pannosa subsp. cardiophylla from the Flinders Ranges in South Australia were genetically distinct from all other samples and likely form a separate, range-restricted species. Remaining samples formed two genetic clusters, which aligned with leaf shape differences but not fully with current subspecies classifications. Levels of genetic diversity and inbreeding differed between the three genetic groups, suggesting each requires a separate management strategy. Additionally, we tested for associations between genetic and environmental variation and carried out habitat suitability modelling for O. pannosa subsp. pannosa populations. We found mean annual maximum temperature explained a significant proportion of genomic variance. Habitat suitability modelling identified mean summer maximum temperature, precipitation seasonality and mean annual rainfall as constraints on the distribution of O. pannosa subsp. pannosa, highlighting increasing aridity as a threat for populations located near suitability thresholds. Our results suggest maximum temperature is an important agent of selection on O. pannosa subsp. pannosa and should be considered in conservation strategies. We recommend taxonomic revision of O. pannosa and provide conservation management recommendations.}, }
@article {pmid34208203, year = {2021}, author = {Pasquier, G and Feilhes, C and Dufourcq, T and Geffroy, O}, title = {Potential Contribution of Climate Change to the Protein Haze of White Wines from the French Southwest Region.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {34208203}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {The aim of this study was to evaluate the role played by climatic conditions during grape ripening in the protein instability of white wines produced in the French southwest region. For this purpose, basic wine analyses were carried out on 268 musts and the corresponding wines, all produced during the 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 vintages, with distinctive climatic conditions. Qualitative and quantitative variables were correlated with levels of protein haze determined by heat test (80 °C/2 h) in the wines using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), principal component analysis (PCA), and classification and regression trees (CART). Our results show that the climatic change, with the increase in temperatures, and the decrease in precipitation during the grape ripening phase, tends to enhance the risk of protein instability in wines. Indeed, the values of pH, titratable acidity, and malic acid concentrations of the musts, which are good indicators of the conditions in which the grapes ripened and of the level of ripeness of the grapes, were also the variables that correlated best with the protein haze. By measuring these parameters at harvest before alcoholic fermentation, it may be possible to predict the risk of protein haze, and thus early and precisely adapt the stabilization treatment to be applied.}, }
@article {pmid34207979, year = {2021}, author = {Scheerens, C and Bekaert, E and Ray, S and Essuman, A and Mash, B and Decat, P and De Sutter, A and Van Damme, P and Vanhove, W and Lietaer, S and De Maeseneer, J and Madzimbamuto, F and Ruyssen, I}, title = {Family Physician Perceptions of Climate Change, Migration, Health, and Healthcare in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Exploratory Study.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {34207979}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Humans ; Perception ; *Physicians, Family ; Uganda ; }, abstract = {Although family physicians (FPs) are community-oriented primary care generalists and should be the entry point for the population's interaction with the health system, they are underrepresented in research on the climate change, migration, and health(care) nexus (hereafter referred to as the nexus). Similarly, FPs can provide valuable insights into building capacity through integrating health-determining sectors for climate-resilient and migration-inclusive health systems, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Here, we explore FPs' perceptions on the nexus in SSA and on intersectoral capacity building. Three focus groups conducted during the 2019 WONCA-Africa conference in Uganda were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using an inductive thematic approach. Participants' perceived interactions related to (1) migration and climate change, (2) migration for better health and healthcare, (3) health impacts of climate change and the role of healthcare, and (4) health impacts of migration and the role of healthcare were studied. We coined these complex and reinforcing interactions as continuous feedback loops intertwined with socio-economic, institutional, and demographic context. Participants identified five intersectoral capacity-building opportunities on micro, meso, macro, and supra (international) levels: multi-dimensional and multi-layered governance structures; improving FP training and primary healthcare working conditions; health advocacy in primary healthcare; collaboration between the health sector and civil society; and more responsibilities for high-income countries. This exploratory study presents a unique and novel perspective on the nexus in SSA which contributes to interdisciplinary research agendas and FP policy responses on national, regional, and global levels.}, }
@article {pmid34206797, year = {2021}, author = {Belsey-Priebe, M and Lyons, D and Buonocore, JJ}, title = {COVID-19's Impact on American Women's Food Insecurity Foreshadows Vulnerabilities to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {34206797}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Female ; Food Insecurity ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; United States ; }, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc on human lives and the global economy, laying bare existing inequities, and galvanizing large numbers to call for change. Women are feeling the effects of this crisis more than others. This paper explores the pre-COVID relationships and amplified negative feedback loops between American women's economic insecurity, lack of safety, and food insecurity. We then examine how COVID-19 is interacting with these intersecting risks and demonstrate how climate change will likely similarly intensify these feedback loops. The COVID-19 pandemic may be revealing vulnerabilities that societies will face in the wake of an increasingly warming world. It is also an opportunity to build resilience, inclusiveness, and equity into our future, and can help inform how to include gender equity in both COVID-19 and climate recovery policies. Finally, we identify possible strategies to build resilience, specifically highlighting that gendered economic empowerment may create a buffer against environmental health hazards and discuss how these strategies could be integrated into a women-centered Green New Deal.}, }
@article {pmid34202431, year = {2021}, author = {Panepinto, D and Riggio, VA and Zanetti, M}, title = {Analysis of the Emergent Climate Change Mitigation Technologies.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {34202431}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Paris ; }, abstract = {A climate change mitigation refers to efforts to reduce or prevent emission of greenhouse gases. Mitigation can mean using new technologies and renewable energies, making older equipment more energy efficient, or changing management practices or consumer behavior. The mitigation technologies are able to reduce or absorb the greenhouse gases (GHG) and, in particular, the CO2 present in the atmosphere. The CO2 is a persistent atmospheric gas. It seems increasingly likely that concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will overshoot the 450 ppm CO2 target, widely seen as the upper limit of concentrations consistent with limiting the increase in global mean temperature from pre-industrial levels to around 2 °C. In order to stay well below to the 2 °C temperature thus compared to the pre-industrial level as required to the Paris Agreement it is necessary that in the future we will obtain a low (or better zero) emissions and it is also necessary that we will absorb a quantity of CO2 from the atmosphere, by 2070, equal to 10 Gt/y. In order to obtain this last point, so in order to absorb an amount of CO2 equal to about 10 Gt/y, it is necessary the implementation of the negative emission technologies. The negative emission technologies are technologies able to absorb the CO2 from the atmosphere. The aim of this work is to perform a detailed overview of the main mitigation technologies possibilities currently developed and, in particular, an analysis of an emergent negative emission technology: the microalgae massive cultivation for CO2 biofixation.}, }
@article {pmid34200489, year = {2021}, author = {Kocięcka, J and Liberacki, D}, title = {The Potential of Using Chitosan on Cereal Crops in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {34200489}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {This review presents the main findings from measurements carried out on cereals using chitosan, its derivatives, and nanoparticles. Research into the use of chitosan in agriculture is growing in popularity. Since 2000, 188 original scientific articles indexed in Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar databases have been published on this topic. These have focused mainly on wheat (34.3%), maize (26.3%), and rice (24.2%). It was shown that research on other cereals such as millets and sorghum is scarce and should be expanded to better understand the impact of chitosan use. This review demonstrates that this chitosan is highly effective against the most dangerous diseases and pathogens for cereals. Furthermore, it also contributes to improving yield and chlorophyll content, as well as some plant growth parameters. Additionally, it induces excellent resistance to drought, salt, and low temperature stress and reduces their negative impact on cereals. However, further studies are needed to demonstrate the full field efficacy of chitosan.}, }
@article {pmid34198870, year = {2021}, author = {Lenzer, B and Hoffmann, C and Hoffmann, P and Müller-Werdan, U and Rupprecht, M and Witt, C and Herzig, C and Liebers, U}, title = {A Qualitative Study on Concerns, Needs, and Expectations of Hospital Patients Related to Climate Change: Arguments for a Patient-Centered Adaptation.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34198870}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Hospitals ; Humans ; *Inpatients ; Motivation ; Patient-Centered Care ; }, abstract = {This study explores the concerns, needs, and expectations of inpatients with the goal to develop a patient-centered climate change adaptation agenda for hospitals. Statements of patients from geriatrics, internal medicine, psychiatry, and surgery (N = 25) of a German tertiary care hospital were analyzed using semi-structured interviews and the framework method. Areas of future adaptation were elaborated in joint discussions with transdisciplinary experts. Concerns included the foresight of severe health problems. The requested adaptations comprised the change to a patient-centered care, infrastructural improvements including air conditioning, and adjustments of the workflows. Guidelines for the behavior of patients and medical services appropriate for the climatic conditions were demanded. The patient-centered agenda for adaptation includes the steps of partnering with patients, reinforcing heat mitigation, better education for patients and medical staff, and adjusting work processes. This is the first study demonstrating that hospital patients are gravely concerned and expect adjustments according to climate change. Since heat is seen as a major risk by interviewees, the fast implementation of published recommendations is crucial. By synthesizing inpatients' expectations with scientific recommendations, we encourage patient-centered climate change adaptation. This can be the start for further collaboration with patients to create climate change resilient hospitals.}, }
@article {pmid34198174, year = {2021}, author = {Dixit, A and Sahany, S and Kulkarni, AV}, title = {Glacial changes over the Himalayan Beas basin under global warming.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {295}, number = {}, pages = {113101}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113101}, pmid = {34198174}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {We simulated and analyzed the glacier dynamics over the Beas basin (situated in the north-western Himalayas) for the present (1980-2015) and future climates (2006-2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 global warming scenarios. We first calibrated the Open Global Glacier Model over the study region and then conducted simulations for the present (forced by ERA-Interim) and future (forced by CMIP5 models) climates. For the present climate, the model simulations show that 50% of the total glacier volume (compared to 1980) is lost by 2011, with glacier area and volume showing a significantly decreasing trend, with higher fluctuations in the glacial area during recent decades. Future projections suggest 75% loss by 2040 ± 2.5 years and ~90% loss by 2094 ± 3.5 years under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5, 75% loss is expected to occur by 2040 ± 3 years and ~90% loss by 2084 ± 8 years. Ensemble mean of the near-surface air temperature (both monthly mean and annual mean) shows a significantly increasing trend under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the entire 21[st] century. Ensemble mean of the total monthly precipitation shows no trend under RCP4.5, however, it shows a decreasing trend for months ODJFMA and an increasing trend for months JJ under RCP8.5. An increase in JJ precipitation does not increase glacier mass since this region does not receive snowfall during these months. Under RCP4.5, snowfall does not show any significant trend during NDJF, however, it shows a decreasing trend during October and March. Under RCP8.5, snowfall shows a significant decreasing trend for October through March. Overall, we find similar melting rates under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 until ~2050, but the latter shows a higher rate afterward.}, }
@article {pmid34198158, year = {2021}, author = {Anåker, A and Spante, M and Elf, M}, title = {Nursing students' perception of climate change and sustainability actions - A mismatched discourse: A qualitative, descriptive exploratory study.}, journal = {Nurse education today}, volume = {105}, number = {}, pages = {105028}, doi = {10.1016/j.nedt.2021.105028}, pmid = {34198158}, issn = {1532-2793}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Curriculum ; *Education, Nursing ; *Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate ; Humans ; Perception ; Qualitative Research ; *Students, Nursing ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is described as the biggest global challenge for human health in the upcoming decade. Nurses play a central role in mitigating the effect of climate change on the healthcare sector and adapting to the phenomenon. Therefore, nursing students must be prepared for a new professional role keeping climate change in mind; consequently, it is important to study students' perceptions of climate change and sustainability.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To explore nursing students' perceptions of climate change and sustainability and examine how they perceive their role as nursing students in working towards a more sustainable development within the healthcare sector.<br><br>DESIGN: It is a qualitative, descriptive exploratory study.<br><br>SETTINGS: A nursing program at a university in central Sweden.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: Nursing students.<br><br>METHODS: Individual in-depth interviews and one group interview were conducted for the study.<br><br>RESULTS: The main findings revealed that students saw themselves living in a mismatched discourse. They perceived the future of humanity as gloomy but thought that sustainability is the society's joint obligation to achieve the right to a good life for all people equally.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Nursing students perceived themselves as important actors in the work of climate change and sustainability. Thus, nursing education needs to integrate the impact of climate change on healthcare and promote sustainability into the curriculum for preparing students to take responsibility for sustainability in society.}, }
@article {pmid34197511, year = {2021}, author = {Ferraro, PJ and Fooks, J and Iovanna, R and Kecinski, M and Larson, J and Meiselman, BS and Messer, KD and Wilson, M}, title = {Conservation outreach that acknowledges human contributions to climate change does not inhibit action by U.S. farmers: Evidence from a large randomized controlled trial embedded in a federal program on soil health.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {7}, pages = {e0253872}, pmid = {34197511}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Crop Production/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Farmers/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic ; *Soil ; Surveys and Questionnaires/statistics &amp; numerical data ; United States ; United States Department of Agriculture/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Technologies and practices that reduce the environmental impacts of US agriculture are well documented. Less is known about how best to encourage their adoption. We report on the results of a large randomized controlled trial conducted with nearly 10,000 agricultural producers in the United States. The experiment was embedded in US Department of Agriculture outreach efforts to improve soil conservation practices. USDA varied the content of mailings to test two sets of competing theories about outreach to agricultural producers. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find no evidence that acknowledging the link between climate change and agricultural production discourages conservation action. Furthermore, we find that producers who were invited to a webinar were less likely to take any action to learn more about conservation practices than producers who were not told about the webinar, a result that runs counter to the popular wisdom that offering more options leads to more action.}, }
@article {pmid34191810, year = {2021}, author = {Bessone, M and Booto, L and Santos, AR and Kühl, HS and Fruth, B}, title = {No time to rest: How the effects of climate change on nest decay threaten the conservation of apes in the wild.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {e0252527}, pmid = {34191810}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Hominidae/*physiology ; Nesting Behavior/physiology ; Pan paniscus/physiology ; Pan troglodytes/physiology ; }, abstract = {Since 1994, IUCN Red List assessments apply globally acknowledged standards to assess species distribution, abundance and trends. The extinction risk of a species has a major impact on conservation science and international funding mechanisms. Great ape species are listed as Endangered or Critically Endangered. Their populations are often assessed using their unique habit of constructing sleeping platforms, called nests. As nests rather than apes are counted, it is necessary to know the time it takes for nests to disappear to convert nest counts into ape numbers. However, nest decomposition is highly variable across sites and time and the factors involved are poorly understood. Here, we used 1,511 bonobo (Pan paniscus) nests and 15 years of climatic data (2003-2018) from the research site LuiKotale, Democratic Republic of the Congo, to investigate the effects of climate change and behavioural factors on nest decay time, using a Bayesian gamma survival model. We also tested the logistic regression method, a recommended time-efficient option for estimating nest decay time. Our climatic data showed a decreasing trend in precipitation across the 15 years of study. We found bonobo nests to have longer decay times in recent years. While the number of storms was the main factor driving nest decay time, nest construction type and tree species used were also important. We also found evidence for bonobo nesting behaviour being adapted to climatic conditions, namely strengthening the nest structure in response to unpredictable, harsh precipitation. By highlighting methodological caveats, we show that logistic regression is effective in estimating nest decay time under certain conditions. Our study reveals the impact of climate change on nest decay time in a tropical remote area. Failure to account for these changes would invalidate biomonitoring estimates of global significance, and subsequently jeopardize the conservation of great apes in the wild.}, }
@article {pmid34190841, year = {2021}, author = {Angulo, MB and Via DO Pico, G and Dematteis, M}, title = {Impact of climate change on the current and future distribution of threatened species of the genus Lessingianthus (Vernonieae: Asteraceae) from the Brazilian Cerrado.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {93}, number = {2}, pages = {e20190796}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202120190796}, pmid = {34190841}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {Animals ; *Asteraceae ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; }, abstract = {Climate change has already altered global biodiversity, causing the migration of species and changes in habitat distribution. To implement a sustainable conservation strategy, it is necessary to understand the impacts of climate change on species. Lessingianthus is a South American genus that includes numerous endangered species, some of which grow in the Brazilian Cerrado, a Neotropical savanna considered a world's biodiversity hotspot. However, the impact of global climate change on these species has still not been estimated. We evaluate the effect of climate change on the habitat of 10 threatened Lessingianthus species and on their potential distribution, and assess the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs) using ecological niche models. Based on the maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent), we first modeled the potential distribution of these species under current climatic conditions and then projected the distribution for two future scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and two time periods (2050 and 2070). We predicted current habitat suitability and identified suitable bioclimatic variables for these species. Our findings suggest that the area comprising the south and southeast of Cerrado is irreplaceable and the most biotically stable region for these endangered species; therefore, it should be considered a conservation priority area.}, }
@article {pmid34189797, year = {2021}, author = {Palmquist, KA and Schlaepfer, DR and Renne, RR and Torbit, SC and Doherty, KE and Remington, TE and Watson, G and Bradford, JB and Lauenroth, WK}, title = {Divergent climate change effects on widespread dryland plant communities driven by climatic and ecohydrological gradients.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {20}, pages = {5169-5185}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15776}, pmid = {34189797}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Artemisia ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Plant community response to climate change will be influenced by individual plant responses that emerge from competition for limiting resources that fluctuate through time and vary across space. Projecting these responses requires an approach that integrates environmental conditions and species interactions that result from future climatic variability. Dryland plant communities are being substantially affected by climate change because their structure and function are closely tied to precipitation and temperature, yet impacts vary substantially due to environmental heterogeneity, especially in topographically complex regions. Here, we quantified the effects of climate change on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities that span 76 million ha in the western United States. We used an individual-based plant simulation model that represents intra- and inter-specific competition for water availability, which is represented by a process-based soil water balance model. For dominant plant functional types, we quantified changes in biomass and characterized agreement among 52 future climate scenarios. We then used a multivariate matching algorithm to generate fine-scale interpolated surfaces of functional type biomass for our study area. Results suggest geographically divergent responses of big sagebrush to climate change (changes in biomass of -20% to +27%), declines in perennial C3 grass and perennial forb biomass in most sites, and widespread, consistent, and sometimes large increases in perennial C4 grasses. The largest declines in big sagebrush, perennial C3 grass and perennial forb biomass were simulated in warm, dry sites. In contrast, we simulated no change or increases in functional type biomass in cold, moist sites. There was high agreement among climate scenarios on climate change impacts to functional type biomass, except for big sagebrush. Collectively, these results suggest divergent responses to warming in moisture-limited versus temperature-limited sites and potential shifts in the relative importance of some of the dominant functional types that result from competition for limiting resources.}, }
@article {pmid34188878, year = {2021}, author = {Crowell, HL and King, KC and Whelan, JM and Harmel, MV and Garcia, G and Gonzales, SG and Maier, PH and Neldner, H and Nhu, T and Nolan, JT and Taylor, EN}, title = {Thermal ecology and baseline energetic requirements of a large-bodied ectotherm suggest resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {8170-8182}, pmid = {34188878}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Most studies on how rising temperatures will impact terrestrial ectotherms have focused on single populations or multiple sympatric species. Addressing the thermal and energetic implications of climatic variation on multiple allopatric populations of a species will help us better understand how a species may be impacted by altered climates.We used eight years of thermal and behavioral data collected from four populations of Pacific rattlesnakes (Crotalus oreganus) living in climatically distinct habitat types (inland and coastal) to determine the field-active and laboratory-preferred body temperatures, thermoregulatory metrics, and maintenance energetic requirements of snakes from each population.Physical models showed that thermal quality was best at coastal sites, but inland snakes thermoregulated more accurately despite being in more thermally constrained environments. Projected increases of 1 and 2°C in ambient temperature result in an increase in overall thermal quality at both coastal and inland sites.Population differences in modeled standard metabolic rate estimates were driven by body size and not field-active body temperature, with inland snakes requiring 1.6× more food annually than coastal snakes.All snakes thermoregulated with high accuracy, suggesting that small increases in ambient temperature are unlikely to impact the maintenance energetic requirements of individual snakes and that some species of large-bodied reptiles may be robust to modest thermal perturbations under conservative climate change predictions. .}, }
@article {pmid34188838, year = {2021}, author = {Kolari, THM and Korpelainen, P and Kumpula, T and Tahvanainen, T}, title = {Accelerated vegetation succession but no hydrological change in a boreal fen during 20 years of recent climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {7602-7621}, pmid = {34188838}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Northern mires (fens and bogs) have significant climate feedbacks and contribute to biodiversity, providing habitats to specialized biota. Many studies have found drying and degradation of bogs in response to climate change, while northern fens have received less attention. Rich fens are particularly important to biodiversity, but subject to global climate change, fen ecosystems may change via direct response of vegetation or indirectly by hydrological changes. With repeated sampling over the past 20 years, we aim to reveal trends in hydrology and vegetation in a pristine boreal fen with gradient from rich to poor fen and bog vegetation. We resampled 203 semi-permanent plots and compared water-table depth (WTD), pH, concentrations of mineral elements, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), plant species occurrences, community structure, and vegetation types between 1998 and 2018. In the study area, the annual mean temperature rose by 1.0°C and precipitation by 46 mm, in 20-year periods prior to sampling occasions. We found that wet fen vegetation decreased, while bog and poor fen vegetation increased significantly. This reflected a trend of increasing abundance of common, generalist hummock species at the expense of fen specialist species. Changes were the most pronounced in high pH plots, where Sphagnum mosses had significantly increased in plot frequency, cover, and species richness. Changes of water chemistry were mainly insignificant in concentration levels and spatial patterns. Although indications toward drier conditions were found in vegetation, WTD had not consistently increased, instead, our results revealed complex dynamics of WTD as depending on vegetation changes. Overall, we found significant trend in vegetation, conforming to common succession pattern from rich to poor fen and bog vegetation. Our results suggest that responses intrinsic to vegetation, such as increased productivity or altered species interactions, may be more significant than indirect effects via local hydrology to the ecosystem response to climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid34185849, year = {2021}, author = {Duchenne-Moutien, RA and Neetoo, H}, title = {Climate Change and Emerging Food Safety Issues: A Review.}, journal = {Journal of food protection}, volume = {84}, number = {11}, pages = {1884-1897}, doi = {10.4315/JFP-21-141}, pmid = {34185849}, issn = {1944-9097}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Food Safety ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Weather ; }, abstract = {ABSTRACT: Throughout the past decades, climate change has been one of the most complex global issues. Characterized by worldwide alterations in weather patterns, along with a concomitant increase in the temperature of the Earth, climate change will undoubtedly have significant effects on food security and food safety. Climate change engenders climate variability: significant variations in weather variables and their frequency. Both climate variability and climate change are thought to threaten the safety of the food supply chain through different pathways. One such pathway is the ability to exacerbate foodborne diseases by influencing the occurrence, persistence, virulence and, in some cases, toxicity of certain groups of disease-causing microorganisms. Food safety can also be compromised by various chemical hazards, such as pesticides, mycotoxins, and heavy metals. With changes in weather patterns, such as lower rainfall, higher air temperature, and higher frequency of extreme weather events among others, this translates to emerging food safety concerns. These include the shortage of safe water for irrigation of agricultural produce, greater use of pesticides due to pest resistance, increased difficulty in achieving a well-controlled cold chain resulting in temperature abuse, or the occurrence of flash floods, which cause runoff of chemical contaminants in natural water courses. Together, these can result in foodborne infection, intoxication, antimicrobial resistance, and long-term bioaccumulation of chemicals and heavy metals in the human body. Furthermore, severe climate variability can result in extreme weather events and natural calamities, which directly or indirectly impair food safety. This review discusses the causes and impacts of climate change and variability on existing and emerging food safety risks and also considers mitigation and adaptation strategies to address the global warming and climate change problem.}, }
@article {pmid34184342, year = {2021}, author = {Dorey, JB and Groom, SVC and Velasco-Castrillón, A and Stevens, MI and Lee, MSY and Schwarz, MP}, title = {Holocene population expansion of a tropical bee coincides with early human colonization of Fiji rather than climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {16}, pages = {4005-4022}, doi = {10.1111/mec.16034}, pmid = {34184342}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bees/genetics ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Fiji ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Phylogeny ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {There is substantial debate about the relative roles of climate change and human activities on biodiversity and species demographies over the Holocene. In some cases, these two factors can be resolved using fossil data, but for many taxa such data are not available. Inferring historical demographies of taxa has become common, but the methodologies are mostly recent and their shortcomings often unexplored. The bee genus Homalictus is developing into a tractable model system for understanding how native bee populations in tropical islands have responded to past climate change. We greatly expand on previous studies using sequences of the mitochondrial gene COI from 474 specimens and between 171 and 3928 autosomal (DArTSeq) single nucleotide polymorphism loci from 19 specimens of the native Fijian bee, Homalictus fijiensis, to explore its historical demography using coalescent and mismatch analyses. We ask whether past changes in demography were human- or climate-driven, while considering analytical assumptions. We show that inferred changes in population sizes are too recent to be explained by past climate change. Instead we find that a dramatic increase in population size for the main island of Viti Levu coincides with increasing occupation by humans and their modification of the environment. We found no corresponding change in bee population size for another major island, Kadavu, where human populations and agricultural activities have been historically very low. Our analyses indicate that molecular approaches can be used to disentangle the impacts of humans and climate change on a major tropical pollinator and that stringent analytical approaches are required for reliable interpretation of results.}, }
@article {pmid34181668, year = {2021}, author = {Mahapatra, B and Walia, M and Rao, CAR and Raju, BMK and Saggurti, N}, title = {Vulnerability of agriculture to climate change increases the risk of child malnutrition: Evidence from a large-scale observational study in India.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {e0253637}, pmid = {34181668}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Child ; Child Nutrition Disorders/*epidemiology ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; Infant ; Male ; Malnutrition/*epidemiology ; *Nutritional Status ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The impact of climate change on agriculture and food security has been examined quite thoroughly by researchers globally as well as in India. While existing studies provide evidence on how climate variability affects the food security and nutrition, research examining the extent of effect vulnerability of agriculture to climate change can have on nutrition in India are scarce. This study examined a) the association between the degree of vulnerability in agriculture to climate change and child nutrition at the micro-level b) spatial effect of climate vulnerability on child nutrition, and c) the geographical hotspots of both vulnerability in agriculture to climate change and child malnutrition.<br><br>METHODS: The study used an index on vulnerability of agriculture to climate change and linked it to child malnutrition indicators (stunting, wasting, underweight and anaemia) from the National Family Health Survey 4 (2015-16). Mixed-effect and spatial autoregressive models were fitted to assess the direction and strength of the relationship between vulnerability and child malnutrition at macro and micro level. Spatial analyses examined the within-district and across-district spill-over effects of climate change vulnerability on child malnutrition.<br><br>RESULTS: Both mixed-effect and spatial autoregressive models found that the degree of vulnerability was positively associated with malnutrition among children. Children residing in districts with a very high degree of vulnerability were more like to have malnutrition than those residing in districts with very low vulnerability. The analyses found that the odds of a child suffering from stunting increased by 32%, wasting by 42%, underweight by 45%, and anaemia by 63% if the child belonged to a district categorised as very highly vulnerable when compared to those categorised as very low. The spatial analysis also suggested a high level of clustering in the spatial distribution of vulnerability and malnutrition. Hotspots of child malnutrition and degree of vulnerability were mostly found to be clustered around western-central part of India.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Study highlights the consequences that vulnerability of agriculture to climate change can have on child nutrition. Strategies should be developed to mitigate the effect of climate change on areas where there is a clustering of vulnerability and child malnutrition.}, }
@article {pmid34181282, year = {2021}, author = {Hazel, A and Meeks, G and Bharti, N and Jakurama, J and Matundu, J and Jones, JH}, title = {Opportunities and constraints in women's resource security amid climate change: A case study of arid-living Namibian agro-pastoralists.}, journal = {American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {e23633}, doi = {10.1002/ajhb.23633}, pmid = {34181282}, issn = {1520-6300}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Desert Climate ; Developing Countries/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Life Style ; Namibia ; Resource Allocation/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Women ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: We describe the composition and variation of women's resource strategies in an arid-living Southern African agro-pastoralist society to gain insights into adaptation to climate-change-induced increased aridity.<br><br>METHODS: Using cross-sectional data from 210 women collected in 2009 across 28 agro-pastoralist villages in Kaokoveld Namibia, we conducted principal-component (PC) analysis of resource variables and constructed profiles of resource strategies from the major PCs. Next, we explored associations between key resource strategies and demographic measures and fitness proxies.<br><br>RESULTS: The first two PCs accounted for 43% of women's overall resource variation. PC1 reflects women's ability to access market resources via livestock trading, while PC2 captured women's direct food access. We found that market strategies were more common among married women and less common among women who have experienced child mortality. Women with higher subsistence security were more likely to be from the OvaHimba tribe and had a higher risk of gonorrhea exposure. We also qualitatively explored drought-induced pressure on women's livestock. Finally, we show that sexual networks were attenuated during drought, indicating strain on social support.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight how agro-pastoralist women manage critical resources in unpredictable environments, and how resource strategies distribute among the women in our study. Goats as a commodity to obtain critical resources suggests that some women have flexibility during drought when gardens fail and cattle die. However, increased aridity and drought may eventually overwhelm husbandry practices in this region.}, }
@article {pmid34179861, year = {2021}, author = {Ma, R and Du, P and Li, T}, title = {Climate change, environmental factors, and COVID-19: Current evidence and urgent actions.}, journal = {Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))}, volume = {2}, number = {3}, pages = {100138}, pmid = {34179861}, issn = {2666-6758}, }
@article {pmid34178449, year = {2021}, author = {Kindt, R}, title = {AlleleShift: an R package to predict and visualize population-level changes in allele frequencies in response to climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e11534}, pmid = {34178449}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: At any particular location, frequencies of alleles that are associated with adaptive traits are expected to change in future climates through local adaption and migration, including assisted migration (human-implemented when climate change is more rapid than natural migration rates). Making the assumption that the baseline frequencies of alleles across environmental gradients can act as a predictor of patterns in changed climates (typically future but possibly paleo-climates), a methodology is provided by AlleleShift of predicting changes in allele frequencies at the population level.<br><br>METHODS: The prediction procedure involves a first calibration and prediction step through redundancy analysis (RDA), and a second calibration and prediction step through a generalized additive model (GAM) with a binomial family. As such, the procedure is fundamentally different to an alternative approach recently proposed to predict changes in allele frequencies from canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). The RDA step is based on the Euclidean distance that is also the typical distance used in Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA). Because the RDA step or CCA approach sometimes predict negative allele frequencies, the GAM step ensures that allele frequencies are in the range of 0 to 1.<br><br>RESULTS: AlleleShift provides data sets with predicted frequencies and several visualization methods to depict the predicted shifts in allele frequencies from baseline to changed climates. These visualizations include 'dot plot' graphics (function shift.dot.ggplot), pie diagrams (shift.pie.ggplot), moon diagrams (shift.moon.ggplot), 'waffle' diagrams (shift.waffle.ggplot) and smoothed surface diagrams of allele frequencies of baseline or future patterns in geographical space (shift.surf.ggplot). As these visualizations were generated through the ggplot2 package, methods of generating animations for a climate change time series are straightforward, as shown in the documentation of AlleleShift and in the supplemental videos.<br><br>AVAILABILITY: AlleleShift is available as an open-source R package from https://cran.r-project.org/package=AlleleShift and https://github.com/RoelandKindt/AlleleShift. Genetic input data is expected to be in the adegenet::genpop format, which can be generated from the adegenet::genind format. Climate data is available from various resources such as WorldClim and Envirem.}, }
@article {pmid34178096, year = {2021}, author = {Allen, M and Tanaka, K and Macey, A and Cain, M and Jenkins, S and Lynch, J and Smith, M}, title = {Ensuring that offsets and other internationally transferred mitigation outcomes contribute effectively to limiting global warming.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {16}, number = {7}, pages = {074009}, pmid = {34178096}, issn = {1748-9326}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 205212/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Ensuring the environmental integrity of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes, whether through offset arrangements, a market mechanism or non-market approaches, is a priority for the implementation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Any conventional transferred mitigation outcome, such as an offset agreement, that involves exchanging greenhouse gases with different lifetimes can increase global warming on some timescales. We show that a simple 'do no harm' principle regarding the choice of metrics to use in such transactions can be used to guard against this, noting that it may also be applicable in other contexts such as voluntary and compliance carbon markets. We also show that both approximate and exact 'warming equivalent' exchanges are possible, but present challenges of implementation in any conventional market. Warming-equivalent emissions may, however, be useful in formulating warming budgets in a two-basket approach to mitigation and in reporting contributions to warming in the context of the global stocktake.}, }
@article {pmid34175465, year = {2021}, author = {McCain, CM and Garfinkel, CF}, title = {Climate change and elevational range shifts in insects.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {47}, number = {}, pages = {111-118}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2021.06.003}, pmid = {34175465}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Insecta ; }, abstract = {On mountains, unique in their steep and rapid climatic gradients, many insects are shifting their elevational range limits to track recent temperature change. In a review of the range shift literature to date, most of the 1478 montane insect populations tested so far are shifting to higher elevations, but there is conspicuous variation in the responses. We discuss the impact of study methodology as well as potential abiotic and biotic factors that may underlie this variation in climate change response. We encourage more empirical studies spanning greater insect biodiversity and directly testing how variation in species' traits, biogeography, and abiotic-biotic context shapes variation in range shift responses.}, }
@article {pmid34174866, year = {2021}, author = {Savage, A and Bambrick, H and McIver, L and Gallegos, D}, title = {Climate change and socioeconomic determinants are structural constraints to agency in diet-related non-communicable disease prevention in Vanuatu: a qualitative study.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {1231}, pmid = {34174866}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Diet ; Humans ; Income ; *Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Pacific Islands ; Qualitative Research ; Vanuatu ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Pacific Island countries, many of which are low- and middle-income countries, have some of the highest rates of diet-related non-communicable diseases (DR-NCDs) globally. These countries also face some of the earliest and most significant impacts of climate change. Several pathways between climate change and DR-NCDs have been described in the literature; however, the scope is broad and lacks context specificity. This paper uses a case study of one Pacific Island country, Vanuatu, to investigate links between climate change and DR-NCDs.<br><br>METHODS: An ethnographic qualitative research approach was used to share the lived experiences of community participants and to explore and contrast these with the perspectives of key informants at the national level. Data collection comprised thirty-two semi-structured interviews and community fieldwork in two villages using a mix of methods, including group workshops, informal conversations, and observations. Reflexive thematic analysis was conducted on both data sets.<br><br>RESULTS: This study found that DR-NCDs are a prominent health concern for ni-Vanuatu people and that structural determinants, including climate change, are the main driving forces for increased DR-NCD risk in the country. However, there was a lack of understanding of the links between climate change and DR-NCDs both at the community and national levels. Structural factors, such as social determinants and climate change, constrained individual and community agency in making optimal food and health choices and promoted the nutrition transition in Vanuatu. Despite the critical role of social determinants and climate change in driving DR-NCD risk, the responsibility for prevention and treatment was considered to rest mainly with the individual. A systems approach is advocated to grasp the complexity and interrelatedness of the causes of DR-NCD risk.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The interaction of structural determinants creates food and health environments that amplify the risk, burden, and consequences of DR-NCDs. It is recommended that the DR-NCD narrative in Vanuatu be re-framed with an emphasis on the range of structural determinants of DR-NCD risk. This will serve to enhance individual and collective agency to not only make healthy food and other behavioural choices but also to exercise agency to transform the structures in a culturally appropriate way.}, }
@article {pmid34174604, year = {2021}, author = {Baig, MA and Zaman, Q and Baig, SA and Qasim, M and Khalil, U and Khan, SA and Ismail, M and Muhammad, S and Ali, S}, title = {Regression analysis of hydro-meteorological variables for climate change prediction: A case study of Chitral Basin, Hindukush region.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {793}, number = {}, pages = {148595}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148595}, pmid = {34174604}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Meteorology ; Regression Analysis ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In the present study, hydro-meteorological variables of Chitral Basin in Hindukush region of Pakistan were studied to predict the changes in climatic components such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and river flow based on observed data from 1990 to 2019. Uncertainties in climate change projection were studied using various statistical methods, such as trend variability analysis via stationarity test and validation of regression assumptions prior to fitting of regression estimates. Also, multiple regression models were estimated for each hydro-meteorological variables for the given 30 years of observed data. Results demonstrated that temperature and, precipitation were inversely related with one another. It was observed from the regression model that temperature is decreases by 0.309 °C on the average increases in precipitation by one unit. Temperature also decreases for the increase in humidity by average 0.086 °C. Since, precipitation is negatively related with temperature, thus for increases in temperature the annual precipitation decreases by 0.278 mm annually. Humidity on the other hand, increases by 0.207% by increasing in precipitation and the temperature that causes humidity to decrease by 0.99%. Thus, it demonstrated that the flow in Chitral river increases due to precipitation by 0.306 m[3]/s for the change in precipitation by one unit. Findings from the present study negated the general perceptions that flow in the Chitral river has increased due to recession of glaciers with increase in the intensity of temperature.}, }
@article {pmid34173531, year = {2020}, author = {Schweizer, VJ and Ebi, KL and van Vuuren, DP and Jacoby, HD and Riahi, K and Strefler, J and Takahashi, K and van Ruijven, BJ and Weyant, JP}, title = {Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal.}, journal = {One earth (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {166-172}, pmid = {34173531}, issn = {2590-3322}, abstract = {To halt climate change this century, we must reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities to net zero. Any emission sources, such as in the energy or land-use sectors, must be balanced by natural or technological carbon sinks that facilitate CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. Projections of demand for large-scale CDR are based on an integrated scenario framework for emission scenarios composed of emission profiles as well as alternative socio-economic development trends and social values consistent with them. The framework, however, was developed years before systematic reviews of CDR entered the literature. This primer provides an overview of the purposes of scenarios in climate-change research and how they are used. It also introduces the integrated scenario framework and why it came about. CDR studies using the scenario framework, as well as its limitations, are discussed. Possible future developments for the scenario framework are highlighted, especially in relation to CDR.}, }
@article {pmid34173520, year = {2020}, author = {Jamieson, D and Jacquet, J}, title = {The US Response to COVID-19 and Climate Change Endangers the Country and the World.}, journal = {One earth (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {2}, number = {6}, pages = {503-505}, pmid = {34173520}, issn = {2590-3322}, abstract = {Climate change and pandemics require cooperative, integrated responses that in turn require planning, coordination, and the mobilization of expertise. US failures in these domains have compromised the world's ability to cope with both problems. At a minimum, the US needs to re-engage with the Paris Agreement and support the World Health Organization.}, }
@article {pmid34173251, year = {2021}, author = {Estrada, F and Botzen, WJW}, title = {Economic impacts and risks of climate change under failure and success of the Paris Agreement.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1504}, number = {1}, pages = {95-115}, pmid = {34173251}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {IC-2017-068//United Nations Development Programme (M&#xe9;xico) and the National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change/ ; IN110718//UNAM-DGAPA/ ; 776479//European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; *Economics ; Environmental Policy ; Geography ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Paris ; *Risk Assessment ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) represent the world's first effort toward the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global temperature increase well below 2 °C and pursuing 1.5 °C. Little is known about how much the proposed mitigation efforts can reduce the risks and economic damages from unabated climate change and about the consequences if key emitters drop the Paris Agreement. Here, we use CLIMRISK, an integrated assessment model designed to support climate policy at the global, national, and subnational scales where mitigation and adaptation policy decisions are made. We characterize the consequences of unabated climate change and the benefits of current climate policy proposals by means of probabilistic estimates of the economic damages of climate change and uni- and multivariate dynamic climate risk indices at a detailed spatial resolution. The results presented reveal that the economic costs and risks are highly unequally distributed between and within countries and larger than previously estimated when warming in urban areas and temporal persistence of impacts are accounted for. Costs and risks can be significantly limited by strict implementation of NDCs, but increase noticeably under noncompliance by large emitters, like the United States.}, }
@article {pmid34170993, year = {2020}, author = {Bonar, SA}, title = {Coronavirus, Climate Change, and a Bit of Hope.}, journal = {Fisheries}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {223-224}, pmid = {34170993}, issn = {0363-2415}, }
@article {pmid34168627, year = {2021}, author = {Calero Preciado, C and Boxall, J and Soria-Carrasco, V and Martínez, S and Douterelo, I}, title = {Implications of Climate Change: How Does Increased Water Temperature Influence Biofilm and Water Quality of Chlorinated Drinking Water Distribution Systems?.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {658927}, pmid = {34168627}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Temperature variation can promote physico-chemical and microbial changes in the water transported through distribution systems and influence the dynamics of biofilms attached to pipes, thus contributing to the release of pathogens into the bulk drinking water. An experimental real-scale chlorinated DWDS was used to study the effect of increasing temperature from 16 to 24°C on specific pathogens, bacterial-fungal communities (biofilm and water samples) and determine the risk of material accumulation and mobilisation from the pipes into the bulk water. Biofilm was developed for 30 days at both temperatures in the pipe walls, and after this growth phase, a flushing was performed applying 4 gradual steps by increasing the shear stress. The fungal-bacterial community characterised by Illumina MiSeq sequencing, and specific pathogens were studied using qPCR: Mycobacterium spp., Mycobacterium avium complex, Acanthamoeba spp., Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Legionella pneumophilia, and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia. Sequencing data showed that temperature variation significantly modified the structure of biofilm microbial communities from the early stages of biofilm development. Regarding bacteria, Pseudomonas increased its relative abundance in biofilms developed at 24°C, while fungal communities showed loss of diversity and richness, and the increase in dominance of Fusarium genus. After the mobilisation phase, Pseudomonas continued being the most abundant genus at 24°C, followed by Sphingobium and Sphingomonas. For biofilm fungal communities after the mobilisation phase, Helotiales incertae sedis and Fusarium were the most abundant taxa. Results from qPCR showed a higher relative abundance of Mycobacterium spp. on day 30 and M. avium complex throughout the growth phase within the biofilms at higher temperatures. The temperature impacts were not only microbial, with physical mobilisation showing higher discolouration response and metals release due to the increased temperature. While material accumulation was accelerated by temperature, it was not preferentially to either stronger or weaker biofilm layers, as turbidity results during the flushing steps showed. This research yields new understanding on microbial challenges that chlorinated DWDS will undergo as global temperature rises, this information is needed in order to protect drinking water quality and safety while travelling through distribution systems.}, }
@article {pmid34164161, year = {2021}, author = {Barnsley, JE and Chandrakumar, C and Gonzalez-Fischer, C and Eme, PE and Bourke, BEP and Smith, NW and Dave, LA and McNabb, WC and Clark, H and Frame, DJ and Lynch, J and Roche, JR}, title = {Lifetime climate impacts of diet transitions: a novel climate change accounting perspective.}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {5568}, pmid = {34164161}, issn = {2071-1050}, support = {205212/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Dietary transitions, such as eliminating meat consumption, have been proposed as one way to reduce the climate impact of the global and regional food systems. However, it should be ensured that replacement diets are indeed nutritious and that climate benefits are accurately accounted for. This study uses New Zealand food consumption as a case study for exploring the cumulative climate impact of adopting the national dietary guidelines and the substitution of meat from hypothetical diets. The new GWP* metric is used as it was designed to better reflect the climate impacts of the release of methane than the de facto standard 100-year Global Warming Potential metric (GWP100). A transition at age 25 to the hypothetical dietary guideline diet reduces cumulative warming associated with diet by 7 to 9% at the 100[th] year compared with consuming the average New Zealand diet. The reduction in diet-related cumulative warming from the transition to a hypothetical meat-substituted diet varied between 12 and 15%. This is equivalent to reducing an average individual's lifetime warming contribution by 2 to 4%. General improvements are achieved for nutrient intakes by adopting the dietary guidelines compared with the average New Zealand diet; however, the substitution of meat items results in characteristic nutrient differences, and these differences must be considered alongside changes in emission profiles.}, }
@article {pmid34163539, year = {2021}, author = {Mamalakis, A and Randerson, JT and Yu, JY and Pritchard, MS and Magnusdottir, G and Smyth, P and Levine, PA and Yu, S and Foufoula-Georgiou, E}, title = {Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rainbelt in response to climate change.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {143-151}, pmid = {34163539}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {80NSSC19K0684/ImNASA/Intramural NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {Future changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ; a narrow band of heavy precipitation in the tropics) with climate change could affect the livelihood and food security of billions of people. Although models predict a future narrowing of the ITCZ, uncertainties remain large regarding its future position, with most past work focusing on zonal-mean shifts. Here we use projections from 27 state-of-the-art (CMIP6) climate models and document a robust zonally-varying ITCZ response to the SSP3-7.0 scenario by 2100, with a northward shift over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean, and a southward shift in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The zonally-varying response is consistent with changes in the divergent atmospheric energy transport, and sector-mean shifts of the energy flux equator. Our analysis provides insight about mechanisms influencing the future position of the tropical rainbelt, and may allow for more robust projections of climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid34162857, year = {2021}, author = {von der Gathen, P and Kivi, R and Wohltmann, I and Salawitch, RJ and Rex, M}, title = {Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {3886}, pmid = {34162857}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Chemical loss of Arctic ozone due to anthropogenic halogens is driven by temperature, with more loss occurring during cold winters favourable for formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). We show that a positive, statistically significant rise in the local maxima of PSC formation potential (PFP[LM]) for cold winters is apparent in meteorological data collected over the past half century. Output from numerous General Circulation Models (GCMs) also exhibits positive trends in PFP[LM] over 1950 to 2100, with highest values occurring at end of century, for simulations driven by a large rise in the radiative forcing of climate from greenhouse gases (GHGs). We combine projections of stratospheric halogen loading and humidity with GCM-based forecasts of temperature to suggest that conditions favourable for large, seasonal loss of Arctic column O3 could persist or even worsen until the end of this century, if future abundances of GHGs continue to steeply rise.}, }
@article {pmid34160050, year = {2021}, author = {Vicenzi, N and Bacigalupe, LD and Laspiur, A and Ibargüengoytía, N and Sassi, PL}, title = {Could plasticity mediate highlands lizards' resilience to climate change? A case study of the leopard iguana (Diplolaemus leopardinus) in Central Andes of Argentina.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {224}, number = {14}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.242647}, pmid = {34160050}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Argentina ; Climate Change ; *Iguanas ; *Lizards ; *Panthera ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The predicted rise of global temperatures is of major concern for ectotherms because of its direct impact on their behavior and physiology. As physiological performance mediates a species' resilience to warming exposure, physiological plasticity could greatly reduce the susceptibility to climate change. We studied the degree to which Diplolaemus leopardinus lizards are able to adjust behavioral and physiological traits in response to short periods of temperature change. We used a split cross design to measure the acclimation response of preferred body temperature (Tp), and the thermal performance curve of resting metabolic rate (RMR) and evaporative water loss (EWL). Our results showed that plasticity differs among traits: whereas Tp and EWL showed lower values in warm conditions, the body temperature at which RMR was highest increased. Moreover, RMR was affected by thermal history, showing a large increase in response to cold exposure in the group initially acclimated to warm temperatures. The reduction of EWL and the increase in optimal temperature will give lizards the potential to partially mitigate the impact of rising temperatures in the energy cost and water balance. However, the decrease in Tp and the sensitivity to the warm thermal history of RMR could be detrimental to the energy net gain, increasing the species' vulnerability, especially considering the increase of heat waves predicted for the next 50 years. The integration of acclimation responses in behavioral and physiological traits provides a better understanding of the range of possible responses of lizards to cope with the upcoming climatic and environmental modifications expected as a result of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34159073, year = {2021}, author = {Harries, AD and Martinez, L and Chakaya, JM}, title = {Reply to: Climate change and TB: the soil and seed conceptual framework.}, journal = {Public health action}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {109}, pmid = {34159073}, issn = {2220-8372}, }
@article {pmid34159072, year = {2021}, author = {Sinha, P and Carwile, ME and Cintron, C and de Perez, EC and Hochberg, NS}, title = {Climate change and TB: the soil and seed conceptual framework.}, journal = {Public health action}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {108}, pmid = {34159072}, issn = {2220-8372}, }
@article {pmid34158800, year = {2021}, author = {Taylor, S}, title = {The Vulnerability of Health Infrastructure to the Impacts of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in Small Island Countries in the South Pacific.}, journal = {Health services insights}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {11786329211020857}, pmid = {34158800}, issn = {1178-6329}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change and related sea level rise will have a range of impacts on populations, particularly in the low lying Pacific island countries (PICs). One of these impacts will be on the health and well-being of people in these nations. In such cases, access to medical facilities is important. This research looks at the medical facilities currently located on 14 PICs and how climate change related impacts such as sea level rise may affect these facilities. The medical infrastructure in each country were located using information from a range of sources such as Ministry of Health (MoH) websites, World Health Organization, Doctors Assisting in South Pacific Islands (DAISI), Commonwealth Health Online, and Google Maps. A spatial analysis was undertaken to identify medical infrastructure located within 4 zones from the coastline of each country: 0 to 50 m, 50 to 100 m, 100 to 200 m, and 200 to 500 m. The findings indicate that 62% of all assessed medical facilities in the 14 PICs are located within 500 m of the coast. The low-lying coral atoll countries of Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Tokelau, and Tuvalu will be highly affected as all medical facilities in these countries fall within 500 m of the coast. The results provide a baseline analysis of the threats posed by sea-level rise to existing critical medical infrastructure in the 14 PICs and could be useful for adaptive planning. These countries have limited financial and technical resources which will make adaptation challenging.}, }
@article {pmid34158494, year = {2021}, author = {Forster, EJ and Healey, JR and Dymond, C and Styles, D}, title = {Commercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {3831}, pmid = {34158494}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Afforestation is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy but the efficacy of commercial forestry is disputed. Here, we calculate the potential GHG mitigation of a UK national planting strategy of 30,000 ha yr[-1] from 2020 to 2050, using dynamic life cycle assessment. What-if scenarios vary: conifer-broadleaf composition, harvesting, product breakouts, and decarbonisation of substituted energy and materials, to estimate 100-year GHG mitigation. Here we find forest growth rate is the most important determinant of cumulative mitigation by 2120, irrespective of whether trees are harvested. A national planting strategy of commercial forest could mitigate 1.64 Pg CO2e by 2120 (cumulative), compared with 0.54-1.72 Pg CO2e for planting only conservation forests, depending on species composition. Even after heavy discounting of future product substitution credits based on industrial decarbonisation projections, GHG mitigation from harvested stands typically surpasses unharvested stands. Commercial afforestation can deliver effective GHG mitigation that is robust to future decarbonisation pathways and wood uses.}, }
@article {pmid34157201, year = {2021}, author = {Salimi, S and Berggren, M and Scholz, M}, title = {Response of the peatland carbon dioxide sink function to future climate change scenarios and water level management.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {20}, pages = {5154-5168}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15753}, pmid = {34157201}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Water ; }, abstract = {Stress factors such as climate change and drought may switch the role of temperate peatlands from carbon dioxide (CO2) sinks to sources, leading to positive feedback to global climate change. Water level management has been regarded as an important climate change mitigation strategy as it can sustain the natural net CO2 sink function of a peatland. Little is known about how resilient peatlands are in the face of future climate change scenarios, as well as how effectively water level management can sustain the CO2 sink function to mitigate global warming. The authors assess the effect of climate change on CO2 exchange of south Swedish temperate peatlands, which were either unmanaged or subject to water level regulation. Climate chamber simulations were conducted using experimental peatland mesocosms exposed to current and future representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). The results showed that all managed and unmanaged systems under future climate scenarios could serve as CO2 sinks throughout the experimental period. However, the 2018 extreme drought caused the unmanaged mesocosms under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 switch from a net CO2 sink to a source during summer. Surprisingly, the unmanaged mesocosms under RCP 2.6 benefited from the warmer climate, and served as the best sink among the other unmanaged systems. Water level management had the greatest effect on the CO2 sink function under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, which improved their CO2 sink capability up to six and two times, respectively. Under the current climate scenario, water level management had a negative effect on the CO2 sink function, and it had almost no effect under RCP 2.6. Therefore, the researchers conclude that water level management is necessary for RCP 8.5, beneficial for RCP 4.5 and unimportant for RCP 2.6 and the current climate.}, }
@article {pmid34156617, year = {2021}, author = {Jan, I and Ashfaq, M and Chandio, AA}, title = {Impacts of climate change on yield of cereal crops in northern climatic region of Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {42}, pages = {60235-60245}, pmid = {34156617}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {063-141191-Ss3-063//Higher Education Commision, Pakistan/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Edible Grain ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {This study investigates the impacts of climate change on yield of selected cereal crops (wheat and maize) in the northern climatic region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province of Pakistan for the period 1986-2015. The first-generation unit root tests such as the Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC), augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF)-Fisher, and the second-generation unit root tests such as cross-sectional augmented Im-Pesaran-Shin (CIPS) and cross-sectional ADF (CADF) are used to check stationarity of the series. The cointegration among the variables is discovered via Pedroni test and Westerlund method. The long- and short-run impacts of climatic variables (average precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) on yield of wheat and maize crops are assessed through the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The empirical findings reveal that average precipitation has a significantly positive impact on yield of both crops in long- as well as short-run. The results further reveal that the effect of average minimum temperature on both crops is insignificant in long-run. However, the short-run effect of average minimum temperature is significantly positive on yield of maize crop but insignificant on yield of wheat crop. In long-run, an increase in average maximum temperature negatively affects crop yield. In short-run, however, it positively affects the yield of wheat and maize crops. The study recommends that increase in area under cultivation, development of advanced irrigation system, and farmers' access to metrological information will help in lowering the drastic impacts of climate change on crop productivity.}, }
@article {pmid34156389, year = {2021}, author = {Schenk, EC and Potter, TM and Cook, C and Huffling, K and Rosa, WE}, title = {Nurses Promoting Inclusive, Safe, Resilient, and Sustainable Cities and Communities: Taking Action on COVID-19, Systemic Racism, and Climate Change.}, journal = {The American journal of nursing}, volume = {121}, number = {7}, pages = {66-69}, pmid = {34156389}, issn = {1538-7488}, support = {P30 CA008748/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; T32 CA009461/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; Public Health ; *Racism ; *Resilience, Psychological ; *Sustainable Development ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {This article is one in a series in which contributing authors discuss how the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are linked to everyday clinical issues; national public health emergencies; and other nursing issues, such as leadership, shared governance, and advocacy. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, a 15-year plan of action to achieve the goals, was unanimously adopted by all UN member states in September 2015 and took effect on January 1, 2016. The Agenda consists of 17 SDGs addressing social, economic, and environmental determinants of health and 169 associated targets focused on five themes: people, planet, peace, prosperity, and partnership. The SDGs build on the work of the UN Millennium Development Goals, which were in effect from 2000 to 2015. The current article highlights SDG 11-making "cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable."}, }
@article {pmid34155425, year = {2021}, author = {Garg, KM and Chattopadhyay, B}, title = {Gene Flow in Volant Vertebrates: Species Biology, Ecology and Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of the Indian Institute of Science}, volume = {101}, number = {2}, pages = {165-176}, pmid = {34155425}, issn = {0970-4140}, abstract = {Gene flow, the exchange of genetic material between populations is an important biological process, which shapes and maintains biodiversity. The successful movement of individuals between populations depends on multiple factors determined by species biology and the environment. One of the most important factors regulating gene flow is the ability to move, and flight allows individuals to easily move across geographical barriers. Volant vertebrates are found on some of the remotest islands and contribute significantly to the biodiversity and ecosystem. The availability of next-generation sequencing data for non-model animals has substantially improved our understanding of gene flow and its consequences, allowing us to look at fine-scale patterns. However, most of our understanding regarding gene flow comes from the temperate regions and the Neotropics. The lack of studies from species-rich Asia is striking. In this review, we outline the importance of gene flow and the factors affecting gene flow, especially for volant vertebrates. We especially discuss research studies from tropical biomes of South and Southeast Asia, highlight the lacuna in literature and provide an outline for future studies in this species-rich region.}, }
@article {pmid34153759, year = {2021}, author = {Kyprioti, A and Almpanidou, V and Chatzimentor, A and Katsanevakis, S and Mazaris, AD}, title = {Is the current Mediterranean network of marine protected areas resilient to climate change?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {792}, number = {}, pages = {148397}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148397}, pmid = {34153759}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Rising ocean temperature impacts the functionality and structure of ecosystems, further triggering the redistribution of biodiversity. Still, the magnitude and anticipated impacts of ocean warming are not expected to be uniform across marine space. Here, we developed a two-fold index-based approach to provide an integrated climatic vulnerability assessment of the marine surfaces which are enclosed within protected areas in the Mediterranean Sea. We first built a climatic stability index, based on metrics of analog-based velocity of climate change over a 120-year period (1950-2069), to assess patterns of climate dynamics within the marine protected surfaces. To provide a vulnerability ranking of protected surfaces under climate change, we combined this climate-related index with an index of community stability, reflecting the projected distribution shifts of 71 species of high conservation value. Our analyses revealed a highly heterogeneous and dynamic climatic space, with increasing but spatially inconsistent patterns of climate change velocities over successive 30-year periods. We found that about 62% of the protected marine surface might be subjected to low/very low climatic stability. About 70% of the protected waters were also found to be of limited community stability. Thus, protected surfaces across the Mediterranean basin were characterized by high vulnerability under changing climatic conditions, while only 5.7% of them exhibited high and very high stability based on both indices. Our findings suggest that combining information on climate change dynamics and biotic stability could offer spatially explicit insights which cannot be obtained based simply on the ecological dimensions of conservation planning.}, }
@article {pmid34153751, year = {2021}, author = {Mohanty, MP and Simonovic, SP}, title = {Changes in floodplain regimes over Canada due to climate change impacts: Observations from CMIP6 models.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {792}, number = {}, pages = {148323}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148323}, pmid = {34153751}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; *Floods ; Forecasting ; Probability ; }, abstract = {With the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), water experts and flood modellers are curious to explore the efficacy of the new and upgraded climate models in representing flood inundation dynamics and how they will be impacted in the future by climate change. In this study, for the first time, we consider the latest group of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 to examine the probable changes in floodplain regimes over Canada. A set of 17 GCMs from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 4.5 (medium forcing) and 8.5 (high end forcing) common to historical (1980 to 2019), near-future (2021 to 2060), and far-future (2061 to 2100) time-periods are selected. A comprehensive framework consisting of hydrodynamic flood modelling, and statistical experiments are put forward to derive high-resolution Canada-wide floodplain maps for 100 and 200-yr return periods. The changes in floodplain regimes for the future periods are analyzed over drainage basin scale in terms of (i) changes in flood inundation extents, (ii) changes in flood hazards (high and very-high classes), and (iii) changes in flood frequency. Our results show a significant rise (>30%) in flood inundation extents in the future periods; particularly intense over western and eastern regions. The flood hazards are expected to cover ~16% more geographical area of Canada. We also find that large areas in northern and western Canada and a few spots in the eastern parts of Canada will be getting flooded more frequently compared to the historical period. The observations derived from this study are vital for enhancing flood preparedness, optimal land-use planning, and refurbishing both structural and non-structural flood control options for improved resilience. The study instills new knowledge on revamping the existing flood management approaches and adaptation strategies for future protection.}, }
@article {pmid34151036, year = {2021}, author = {Danso-Abbeam, G and Ojo, TO and Baiyegunhi, LJS and Ogundeji, AA}, title = {Climate change adaptation strategies by smallholder farmers in Nigeria: does non-farm employment play any role?.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {6}, pages = {e07162}, pmid = {34151036}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Non-farm employment in agrarian communities in developing countries has received a lot of attention. However, its role in implementing climate change adaptation strategies is rarely discussed. This study employs a cross-sectional data to examine whether rural households in Southwest Nigeria are increasing the extent of climate change adaptation practices through their participation in non-farm employment. To account for selectivity bias, the study used endogenous treatment effect for count data model (precisely Poisson) augmented with the inverse probability-weighted-regression-adjustment (IPWRA) estimator. Both estimators found that rural non-farm jobs increase smallholder farmers' adaptive capacities and that participants would have used less adaptation techniques if they had not participated in non-farm work. Efforts to boost rural development must provide more employment opportunities for farmers, particularly during the off-cropping time. This will help farmers improve their ability to adopt more climate change adaptation strategies and, consequently increase farm productivity.}, }
@article {pmid34150311, year = {2021}, author = {Putelat, T and Whitmore, AP and Senapati, N and Semenov, MA}, title = {Local impacts of climate change on winter wheat in Great Britain.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {201669}, pmid = {34150311}, issn = {2054-5703}, support = {BBS/E/C/000I0330/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Under future CMIP5 climate change scenarios for 2050, an increase in wheat yield of about 10% is predicted in Great Britain (GB) as a result of the combined effect of CO2 fertilization and a shift in phenology. Compared to the present day, crops escape increases in the climate impacts of drought and heat stresses on grain yield by developing before these stresses can occur. In the future, yield losses from water stress over a growing season will remain about the same across Great Britain with losses reaching around 20% of potential yield, while losses from drought around flowering will decrease and account for about 9% of water limited yield. Yield losses from heat stress around flowering will remain negligible in the future. These conclusions are drawn from a modelling study based on the response of the Sirius wheat simulation model to local-scale 2050-climate scenarios derived from 19 Global Climate Models from the CMIP5 ensemble at 25 locations representing current or potential wheat-growing areas in GB. However, depending on susceptibility to water stress, substantial interannual yield variation between locations is predicted, in some cases suggesting low wheat yield stability. For this reason, local-scale studies should be performed to evaluate uncertainties in yield prediction related to future weather patterns.}, }
@article {pmid34149865, year = {2021}, author = {Kelman, I and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Rose-Clarke, K and Prost, A and Ronneberg, E and Wheeler, N and Watts, N}, title = {A review of mental health and wellbeing under climate change in small island developing states (SIDS).}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {033007}, pmid = {34149865}, issn = {1748-9326}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, abstract = {Small island developing states (SIDS) are often at the forefront of climate change impacts, including those related to health, but information on mental health and wellbeing is typically underreported. To help address this research lacuna, this paper reviews research about mental health and wellbeing under climate change in SIDS. Due to major differences in the literature's methodologies, results, and analyses, the method is an overview and qualitative evidence synthesis of peer-reviewed publications. The findings show that mental health and wellbeing in the context of climate change have yet to feature prominently and systematically in research covering SIDS. It seems likely that major adverse mental health and wellbeing impacts linked to climate change impacts will affect SIDS peoples. Similar outcomes might also emerge when discussing climate change related situations, scenarios, and responses, irrespective of what has actually happened thus far due to climate change. In the context of inadequate health systems and stigmatisation of mental health diagnoses and treatments, as tends to occur globally, climate change narratives might present an opening for conversations about addressing mental health and wellbeing issues for SIDS.}, }
@article {pmid34147289, year = {2021}, author = {Woods, HA and Pincebourde, S and Dillon, ME and Terblanche, JS}, title = {Extended phenotypes: buffers or amplifiers of climate change?.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {36}, number = {10}, pages = {889-898}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2021.05.010}, pmid = {34147289}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Microclimate ; Phenotype ; }, abstract = {Historic approaches to understanding biological responses to climate change have viewed climate as something external that happens to organisms. Organisms, however, at least partially influence their own climate experience by moving within local mosaics of microclimates. Such behaviors are increasingly being incorporated into models of species distributions and climate sensitivity. Less attention has focused on how organisms alter microclimates via extended phenotypes: phenotypes that extend beyond the organismal surface, including structures that are induced or built. We argue that predicting the consequences of climate change for organismal performance and fitness will depend on understanding the expression and consequences of extended phenotypes, the microclimatic niches they generate, and the power of plasticity and evolution to shape those niches.}, }
@article {pmid34145907, year = {2021}, author = {Osgood, GJ and White, ER and Baum, JK}, title = {Effects of climate-change-driven gradual and acute temperature changes on shark and ray species.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {11}, pages = {2547-2559}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13560}, pmid = {34145907}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Oceans and Seas ; *Sharks ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering distributions and abundances of marine species through both gradual and acute changes in temperature and productivity. Due to their high mobility and metabolic rates, elasmobranchs (sharks and rays) are likely to redistribute across latitudes and depths as they thermoregulate, but little is known about their responses to these climatic changes, which could vary widely across this diverse group of species. Here, we assessed how species with differing mobility and ecology responded to gradual changes in daily sea surface temperature (SST) and acute temperature anomalies, caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), at Cocos Island, Costa Rica, the site of multiple marine heatwaves. We used generalized linear mixed models to analyse 34,342 records of relative abundance or frequency of occurrence for seven shark and ray species collected in 27 years (1993-2019) by a dive company. We compared effect sizes for SST and the Oceanic Niño Index across the different species, which vary widely in body size and mobility. Large, mobile species responded strongly but inconsistently to temperature. For scalloped hammerhead sharks Sphyrna lewini, a 1℃ rise in SST reduced counts by over 14%, and dropped the occurrence of their large schools by almost one-fifth (19.4%). Mobula ray occurrence also declined substantially with a few degrees rise in SST, whereas tiger shark Galeocerdo cuvier occurrence sharply increased. These species also had divergent responses to the ENSO: S. lewini and G. cuvier were sighted with greater frequency during La Niña events, and their abundance dropped considerably during El Niño events-over a twofold decline between a strong La Niña and strong El Niño for S. lewini. In contrast, Mobula rays showed little response to ENSO. The smaller and sedentary Triaenodon obesus exhibited the weakest response of all species to both SST and the ENSO, reflecting its lower metabolic rates and mobility. Climate change will continue to impact elasmobranchs, even for smaller and more localized species, with the potential to impact the effectiveness of marine protected areas (MPAs). Our results compel further work on the diversity of elasmobranch responses to environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid34143727, year = {2021}, author = {García-Robledo, C and Baer, CS}, title = {Demographic Attritions, Elevational Refugia, and the Resilience of Insect Populations to Projected Global Warming.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {198}, number = {1}, pages = {113-127}, doi = {10.1086/714525}, pmid = {34143727}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Demography ; *Global Warming ; Insecta ; *Refugium ; }, abstract = {AbstractTropical mountains might protect species from global warming by facilitating biotic migrations upslope. Current predictions of tropical biotic responses to global warming are based on correlations between species elevational distributions and temperatures. Because biotic attritions, range shifts, and mountaintop extinctions result from complex demographic processes, predictive models must be based on mechanistic associations between temperature and fitness. Our study combines long-term temperature records with experimental demography to determine the contribution of local adaptation to organismal resilience in a warming world. On the Barva volcano in Costa Rica, Cephaloleia belti (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) displays high-elevation (960-2,100 m asl) and low-elevation (50-960 m asl) mitochondrial haplotypes. We reared haplotype cohorts at temperatures prevalent along the elevational gradient (i.e., 10°-30°C). Based on ambient temperatures recorded every half hour for 4 years, we projected average instantaneous population growth rates ([Formula: see text]) at current and future temperatures (i.e., +1° to 6°C) for each beetle haplotype. Haplotypes are adapted to local temperatures, but with a temperature increase beyond 2°C, both haplotypes will face lower-elevation demographic attritions and extinctions. Upper distribution limits serve as potential elevational refugia from global warming. This study shows how species resilience to global warming emerges from complex fitness responses of locally adapted phenotypes facing novel environments.}, }
@article {pmid34143311, year = {2021}, author = {Rather, ZA and Ahmad, R and Dar, AR and Dar, TUH and Khuroo, AA}, title = {Predicting shifts in distribution range and niche breadth of plant species in contrasting arid environments under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {7}, pages = {427}, pmid = {34143311}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Africa ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; }, abstract = {Arid environments face extreme risk from contemporary climate change; therefore, predicting the shifts in species distribution range and niche breadth in these environments assumes urgent research priority. Here we report the potential distribution and predict future distribution range of two model plant species typically representing contrasting environments across Asia and Africa: hot-arid Ephedra foliata and cold-arid E. gerardiana. We adopted a comparative modelling approach and used occurrence points from extensive field surveys, supplemented with herbaria records and publicly available distribution data. Our study reveals that currently an area of 8.797334 × 10[6] km[2] (8.8%) is potentially suitable for E. foliata and nearly half 4.759326 × 10[6] km[2] (4.8%) for E. gerardiana. Under future climate change scenarios, distribution range of E. foliata is predicted to expand but contract in E. gerardiana. Similarly, E. foliata showed broader niche breadth which is predicted to increase under B1 (0.097-0.125) and B2 (0.878-0.930) climatic change scenarios. In contrast, E. gerardiana had narrower niche breadth and expected to further decrease under B1 (0.081-0.078) and B2 (0.878-0.854). The most influential bioclimatic variable governing the potential distribution and niche breadth of E. foliata was the precipitation of warmest quarter, whereas that of E. gerardiana was temperature seasonality. The results from our study can help in developing potential indicator plant species for assessment and monitoring of distribution range shifts in response to changing climate in the arid environments.}, }
@article {pmid34141270, year = {2021}, author = {McGowan, MM and Perlut, NG and Strong, AM}, title = {Agriculture is adapting to phenological shifts caused by climate change, but grassland songbirds are not.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {6993-7002}, pmid = {34141270}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Migratory birds time their migration based on cues that signal resource availability for reproduction. However, with climate change, the timing of seasonal events may shift, potentially inhibiting the ability of some species to use them as accurate cues for migration. We studied the relationship between phenological shifts and reproduction by long- and short-distance migratory songbirds-Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) and Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis). Our study population breeds in hayfields and pastures in Vermont, USA, where farmers are also changing management activities in response to climate change. From 2002 to 2019, we monitored nest initiation dates to quantify correlations with environmental factors and the timing of nest initiation. We collected historical and projected precipitation and temperature data for the breeding grounds, and their respective wintering and stopover sites, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We predicted that winter conditions experienced by the short-distance migrant, the Savannah Sparrow, but not the long-distance migrant, the Bobolink, would explain the timing and success of nesting, however that this timing would be misaligned with changes in agricultural practices by hay farmers. Nest initiation dates did not show significant directional change for either species, but did vary among years. Interannual variation in Savannah Sparrow nest initiation dates was best explained by the interaction between precipitation on the breeding grounds and average wintering site (Wilmington, North Carolina). For Bobolinks, interannual variation in nest initiation dates was best explained by the interaction between breeding ground precipitation and average temperature in their fall stopover site (Barquisimieto, Venezuela). However, first haying dates in Vermont advanced by ~10 days over 18 years. These results suggest that the conflict between the timing of hay harvests and grassland songbird reproduction will increase, further threatening population processes for these species, as early harvests notably decrease annual productivity.}, }
@article {pmid34141214, year = {2021}, author = {Vega, ML and Fransson, T and Kullberg, C}, title = {The effects of four decades of climate change on the breeding ecology of an avian sentinel species across a 1,500-km latitudinal gradient are stronger at high latitudes.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {6233-6247}, pmid = {34141214}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global warming affects breeding phenology of birds differentially with latitude, but there is contrasting evidence about how the changing climate influences the breeding of migrating songbirds at their northern breeding range. We investigate the effect of climate warming on breeding time and breeding success of European pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca in Sweden during a period of 36 years using nest reports from bird ringing. To account for the latitudinal variation, we divided Sweden into three latitudinal bands (northern, intermediate, and southern). We applied a sliding window approach to find the most influential period and environment characteristics (temperature, vegetation greenness, and precipitation), using linear mixed models and model averaging. Our results show a long-term advancement of breeding time related to increasing spring temperature and vegetation greenness during a period before hatching. Northern breeders revealed a larger advancement over the years (8.3 days) compared with southern breeders (3.6 days). We observed a relatively stronger effect of temperature and greenness on breeding time in the north. Furthermore, northern birds showed an increase in breeding success over time, while birds breeding at southern and intermediate latitudes showed reduced breeding success in years with higher prehatching temperatures. Our findings with stronger environment effects on breeding time advancement in the north suggest that pied flycatchers are more responsive to weather cues at higher latitudes. Breeding time adjustment and, potentially, low competition help explain the higher long-term success observed in the north. Reduced breeding success at more southerly latitudes suggests an inability to match breeding time to very early and warm springs, a fate that with continued climate change could also be expected for pied flycatchers and other long-distance migrants at their very northern breeding range.}, }
@article {pmid34141183, year = {2021}, author = {Sauer, KA and Capps, DK and Jackson, DF and Capps, KA}, title = {Six minutes to promote change: People, not facts, alter students' perceptions on climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {5790-5802}, pmid = {34141183}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change threatens the structure and function of ecosystems throughout the globe, but many people are still skeptical of its existence. Traditional "knowledge deficit model" thinking has suggested that providing the public with more facts about climate change will assuage skepticism. However, presenting evidence contrary to prior beliefs can have the opposite effect and result in a strengthening of previously held beliefs, a phenomenon known as biased assimilation or a backfire effect. Given this, strategies for effectively communicating about socioscientific issues that are politically controversial need to be thoroughly investigated. We randomly assigned 184 undergraduates from an environmental science class to one of three experimental conditions in which we exposed them to short videos that employed different messaging strategies: (a) an engaging science lecture, (b) consensus messaging, and (c) elite cues. We measured changes in student perceptions of climate change across five constructs (content knowledge, acceptance of scientific consensus, perceived risk, support for action, and climate identity) before and after viewing videos. Consensus messaging outperformed the other two conditions in increasing student acceptance of the scientific consensus, perceived risk of climate change, and climate identity, suggesting this may be an effective strategy for communicating the gravity of anthropogenic climate change. Elite cues outperformed the engaging science lecture condition in increasing student support for action on climate, with politically conservative students driving this relationship, suggesting that the messenger is more important than the message if changing opinions about the necessity of action on climate change is the desired outcome. Relative to the other conditions, the engaging science lecture did not support change in students' perceptions on climate, but appealing to student respect for authority produced positive results. Notably, we observed no decline in students' acceptance of climate science, indicating that none of the conditions induced a backfire effect.}, }
@article {pmid34140579, year = {2021}, author = {Paudel, B and Chu, T and Chen, M and Sampath, V and Prunicki, M and Nadeau, KC}, title = {Increased duration of pollen and mold exposure are linked to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {12816}, pmid = {34140579}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Allergens/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Confidence Intervals ; Fungi/*physiology ; Multivariate Analysis ; Pollen/*physiology ; Seasons ; Spores, Fungal/physiology ; }, abstract = {Pollen and molds are environmental allergens that are affected by climate change. As pollen and molds exhibit geographical variations, we sought to understand the impact of climate change (temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2), precipitation, smoke exposure) on common pollen and molds in the San Francisco Bay Area, one of the largest urban areas in the United States. When using time-series regression models between 2002 and 2019, the annual average number of weeks with pollen concentrations higher than zero increased over time. For tree pollens, the average increase in this duration was 0.47 weeks and 0.51 weeks for mold spores. Associations between mold, pollen and meteorological data (e.g., precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2, and area covered by wildfire smoke) were analyzed using the autoregressive integrated moving average model. We found that peak concentrations of weed and tree pollens were positively associated with temperature (p < 0.05 at lag 0-1, 0-4, and 0-12 weeks) and precipitation (p < 0.05 at lag 0-4, 0-12, and 0-24 weeks) changes, respectively. We did not find clear associations between pollen concentrations and CO2 levels or wildfire smoke exposure. This study's findings suggest that spore and pollen activities are related to changes in observed climate change variables.}, }
@article {pmid34138898, year = {2021}, author = {Obembe, OS and Hendricks, NP and Tack, J}, title = {Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {e0252067}, pmid = {34138898}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; United States ; }, abstract = {An increase in global average surface temperature over the 21st century will affect food production. There is still uncertainty if the source of the production losses caused by climate change could be driven either by lower yield or reduced area harvested. We use county-level production data on winter wheat coupled with fine-scale weather outcomes between 1981-2007 to examine the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in Kansas. We decompose the total impact of weather variables through both the yield and harvested acreage channels. We find that an insignificant portion-both in terms of magnitude and statistical significance-of the production losses are due to reduced harvested acres (i.e., crop abandonment). The proportion harvested only account for 14.88% and 21.71% of the total damages under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 and neither effect is statistically significant. An implication of this result implies that studies that only examine climate impacts on harvested yields are not significantly underestimating the climate change impacts on production.}, }
@article {pmid34137705, year = {2021}, author = {Gorla, DE}, title = {[Climate change and vector-borne diseases in Argentina].}, journal = {Medicina}, volume = {81}, number = {3}, pages = {432-437}, pmid = {34137705}, issn = {1669-9106}, mesh = {Argentina/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors ; Humans ; Public Health ; *Vector Borne Diseases ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) continue to pose a challenge to the efforts of public health agencies by increasing their impact on the health of the affected communities. The common feature of VBDs is that the only way of preventing them is by avoiding the contact between vectors and humans. There are no vaccines, and they will not be available shortly as tools for prevention and control in Argentina. Although dengue outbreaks attracted the attention of mass media from 2009, other VBDs have been affecting public health in Argentina for many decades, as Chagas disease and leishmaniasis. Over these, and others that could potentially settle in the national territory (West Nile, Lyme, etc.), there are repeated mass media claims and political declarations justifying their increase because of climate changes. The argument asserts that the "tropicalization" of the climate in temperate regions promotes the installation of VBDs in areas previously unfavorable for them. Although much evidence exists showing that the climate is changing, there is very little evidence that the climate is the main factor promoting the increase of VBDs. In this article, the influence of the so-called climate change on the situation of disease vectors in Argentina (with emphasis on triatomines) and vector control activities implemented by governmental public health agencies are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid34135324, year = {2021}, author = {Bellomo, K and Angeloni, M and Corti, S and von Hardenberg, J}, title = {Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {3659}, pmid = {34135324}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {641816//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 820970//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 641816//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 820970//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 641816//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 820970//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 641816//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; 820970//EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)/ ; }, abstract = {In climate model simulations of future climate change, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to decline. However, the impacts of this decline, relative to other changes, remain to be identified. Here we address this problem by analyzing 30 idealized abrupt-4xCO2 climate model simulations. We find that in models with larger AMOC decline, there is a minimum warming in the North Atlantic, a southward displacement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, and a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet. The changes in the models with smaller AMOC decline are drastically different: there is a relatively larger warming in the North Atlantic, the precipitation response exhibits a wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier pattern, and there are smaller displacements of the mid-latitude jet. Our study indicates that the AMOC is a major source of inter-model uncertainty, and continued observational efforts are needed to constrain the AMOC response in future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34134914, year = {2022}, author = {Buser, JM and Lake, K and Ginier, E}, title = {Environmental Risk Factors for Childhood Cancer in an Era of Global Climate Change: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {Journal of pediatric health care : official publication of National Association of Pediatric Nurse Associates &amp; Practitioners}, volume = {36}, number = {1}, pages = {46-56}, doi = {10.1016/j.pedhc.2021.05.005}, pmid = {34134914}, issn = {1532-656X}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Neoplasms/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Contemporary research about environmental risk factors in an era of global climate change to inform childhood cancer prevention efforts is disjointed. Planetary pediatric providers need to establish a better understanding of how the postnatal environment influences childhood cancer. Authors conducted a scoping review of recent scientific literature with the aim of understanding the environmental risk factors for childhood cancer.<br><br>METHOD: Ovid Medline, CINAHL, and Scopus databases were searched with results limited to the English language with publication years 2010-2021. Two independent reviewers screened 771 abstracts and excluded 659 abstracts and 65 full-text articles on the basis of predefinedcriteria.<br><br>RESULTS: The scoping review identified 47 studies about environmental risk factors for childhood cancer with mixed results and limited consensus in four main categories, including air pollution, chemical exposures, radiation, and residential location.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Research by collaborative international groups of planetary health researchers about environmental risk factors is needed to inform global health policy for childhood cancer prevention efforts.}, }
@article {pmid34132629, year = {2021}, author = {Stevens, LE and Maycock, TK and Stewart, BC}, title = {Climate change in the human environment: Indicators and impacts from the Fourth National Climate Assessment.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {71}, number = {10}, pages = {1210-1233}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2021.1942321}, pmid = {34132629}, issn = {2162-2906}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; United States ; }, abstract = {The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) is the most comprehensive report to date assessing climate change science, impacts, risks, and adaptation in the United States. The 1,500 page report covers a breadth of topics, ranging from foundational physical science to climate change response options. Here we present information on indicators and impacts of climate change in the human environment featured in NCA4 Volume II, focusing on: air quality, forest disturbance and wildfire, energy systems, and water resources. Observations, trends, and impacts of these aspects of our changing climate will be discussed, along with implications for the future. Implications: People of the United States are already being affected by our changing climate. Information on observed changes and impacts that affect human welfare and society, along with projections for the future, is highly valuable for informing decision-makers, including utility managers, emergency planners, and other stakeholders, about climate risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation options.}, }
@article {pmid34132283, year = {2021}, author = {Ukhurebor, KE and Singh, KR and Nayak, V and Uk-Eghonghon, G}, title = {Influence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: a review from the climate change perspective.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {1060-1078}, doi = {10.1039/d1em00154j}, pmid = {34132283}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {Ever since the global outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) in the early part of 2020, there is no doubt that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has placed great tension globally and has affected almost all aspects of human endeavors. There are presently several research studies on the atmospheric environmental and economic effects of this dreaded virus. Supposedly, the responses ought to have also present innovations that would advance scientific research to mitigate its impacts since most of the ensuing consequences impact the atmospheric climatic conditions. Even when it appears that economic events would possibly return in no time, the circumstances will change. Specifically, from the existing literature, it appears that not much has been done to study the influence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on climate change. Hence, this present review article will explore the possible connection between the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and climate change. The utilization of various scientific domains for climate change studies during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and exploring the positive influences of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and measures to avoid the negative impacts on climate change owing to SARS-CoV-2 have also been discussed.}, }
@article {pmid34132196, year = {2021}, author = {Pfenninger, M and Reuss, F and Kiebler, A and Schönnenbeck, P and Caliendo, C and Gerber, S and Cocchiararo, B and Reuter, S and Blüthgen, N and Mody, K and Mishra, B and Bálint, M and Thines, M and Feldmeyer, B}, title = {Genomic basis for drought resistance in European beech forests threatened by climate change.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {34132196}, issn = {2050-084X}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*genetics ; *Droughts ; Fagus/*genetics ; Genome, Plant/*genetics ; Genome-Wide Association Study ; Phenotype ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide/genetics ; }, abstract = {In the course of global climate change, Central Europe is experiencing more frequent and prolonged periods of drought. The drought years 2018 and 2019 affected European beeches (Fagus sylvatica L.) differently: even in the same stand, drought-damaged trees neighboured healthy trees, suggesting that the genotype rather than the environment was responsible for this conspicuous pattern. We used this natural experiment to study the genomic basis of drought resistance with Pool-GWAS. Contrasting the extreme phenotypes identified 106 significantly associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) throughout the genome. Most annotated genes with associated SNPs (>70%) were previously implicated in the drought reaction of plants. Non-synonymous substitutions led either to a functional amino acid exchange or premature termination. An SNP assay with 70 loci allowed predicting drought phenotype in 98.6% of a validation sample of 92 trees. Drought resistance in European beech is a moderately polygenic trait that should respond well to natural selection, selective management, and breeding.}, }
@article {pmid34128774, year = {2021}, author = {Robinson, WA}, title = {Climate change and extreme weather: A review focusing on the continental United States.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {71}, number = {10}, pages = {1186-1209}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2021.1942319}, pmid = {34128774}, issn = {2162-2906}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Extreme Weather ; Forecasting ; Humans ; United States ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are warming the Earth. It is likely that the greatest impacts of climate change on human and natural systems will come from increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather and climate events. Some increases in such extremes are already being detected, and this trend is projected to continue as Earth warms. Here we review the overarching climate drivers of increases in extreme weather and address the context in which extremes occur and the challenges of projecting future changes. The observational evidence for climate-driven increases in extremes and the implications of model projections are reviewed for heat and drought and several types of storms: tropical cyclones, midlatitude storms, and severe local weather, focusing on those changes most relevant to the continental United States. We emphasize the overall observed and modeled trends in extreme weather in which we have the greatest confidence, because they are consistent with our fundamental understanding of weather and climate. Despite remaining uncertainty about many details, especially in model-based projections, the signal of increasing extremes is sufficiently clear that it demands a robust human response, in limiting future emissions of greenhouse gases and in making our human systems more resilient to further changes that are inevitable as Earth continues to warm.Implications: By placing observed and projected changes in extreme weather in the context of our fundamental understanding of physics and statistics, this review makes it clear that these are significant and impactful changes that demand a robust human response.}, }
@article {pmid34126492, year = {2021}, author = {Abirami, B and Radhakrishnan, M and Kumaran, S and Wilson, A}, title = {Impacts of global warming on marine microbial communities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {791}, number = {}, pages = {147905}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147905}, pmid = {34126492}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; *Microbiota ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming in ocean ecosystems alters temperature, acidification, oxygen content, circulation, stratification, and nutrient inputs. Microorganisms play a dominant role in global biogeochemical cycles crucial for a planet's sustainability. Since microbial communities are highly dependent on the temperature factor, fluctuations in the same will lead to adverse effects on the microbial community organization. Throughout the Ocean, increase in evaporation rates causes the surface mixed layer to become shallower. This intensified stratification inhibits vertical transport of nutrient supplies. Such density driven processes will decrease oxygen solubility in surface waters leading to significant decrease of oxygen from future Ocean. Metabolism and diversity of microbes along with ocean biogeochemistry will be at great risk due to global warming and its related effects. As a response to the changes in temperature, alteration in the distribution of phytoplankta communities is observed all over the planet, creating changes in the primary production of the ocean causing massive impact on the biosphere. Marine microbial communities try to adapt to the changing ocean environmental conditions by responding with biogeographic range shifts, community structure modifications, and adaptive evolution. Persistence of this climate change on ocean ecosystems, in future, will pose serious threat to the metabolism and distribution of marine microbes leading to fluctuations in the biogeochemical cycles thereby affecting the overall ecosystem functioning. Genomics plays an important role in marine microbial research by providing tools to study the association between environment and organisms. The ecological and genomic perspectives of marine microbes are being investigated to design effective models to understand their physiology and evolution in a changing ocean. Mesocosm/microcosm experimental studies and field studies are in the need of the hour to evaluate the impact of climate shifts on microbial genesis.}, }
@article {pmid34126048, year = {2021}, author = {Bongioanni, P and Del Carratore, R and Corbianco, S and Diana, A and Cavallini, G and Masciandaro, SM and Dini, M and Buizza, R}, title = {Climate change and neurodegenerative diseases.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {201}, number = {}, pages = {111511}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.111511}, pmid = {34126048}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Neurodegenerative Diseases/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The climate change induced global warming, and in particular the increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, have been linked to health problems. Among them, scientific works have been reporting an increased incidence of neurological diseases, encompassing also neurodegenerative ones, such as Dementia of Alzheimer's type, Parkinson's Disease, and Motor Neuron Diseases. Although the increase in prevalence of neurodegenerative diseases is well documented by literature reports, the link between global warming and the enhanced prevalence of such diseases remains elusive. This is the main theme of our work, which aims to examine the connection between high temperature exposure and neurodegenerative diseases. Firstly, we evaluate the influence of high temperatures exposure on the pathophysiology of these disorders. Secondly, we discuss its effects on the thermoregulation, already compromised in affected patients, and its interference with processes of excitotoxicity, oxidative stress and neuroinflammation, all of them related with neurodegeneration. Finally, we investigate chronic versus acute stressors on body warming, and put forward a possible interpretation of the beneficial or detrimental effects on the brain, which is responsible for the incidence or progression of neurological disorders.}, }
@article {pmid34125387, year = {2021}, author = {Ehsanullah, S and Tran, QH and Sadiq, M and Bashir, S and Mohsin, M and Iram, R}, title = {How energy insecurity leads to energy poverty? Do environmental consideration and climate change concerns matters.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {39}, pages = {55041-55052}, pmid = {34125387}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Economic Development ; *Energy-Generating Resources ; France ; *Poverty ; }, abstract = {The aim of the study is to estimate the nexus between energy insecurity and energy poverty with the role of climate change and other environmental concerns. We used DEA like WP methods and properties of MCDA, a most common form of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to estimate the nexus between constructs. This paper presents a measurement and analysis of G7 countries' energy, economic, social, and environmental performance associated with energy poverty indexes. The study used the multiple, comprehensive, and relevant set of indicators, including energy economics and environmental consideration of energy poverty. The net energy consumption of al G7 economies is equal to 34 percent of the entire world along with the net estimate GDP score of around 50 percent. Using DEA modelling and estimation technique, our research presented valuable insights for readers, theorists and policy makers on energy, environment, energy poverty and climate change mitigation. For this reasons, all these indicators combined in a mathematical composite indicator to measure energy, economic, social, and environmental performance index (EPI). Results show that Canada has the highest EPII score, which shows that Canada's capacity to deal with energy self-sufficiency, economic development, and environmental performance is greater than the other G7 countries. France and Italy rank second and third. Japan comes next with 0.50 EPI scores, while the USA has the lowest average EPI score environment vulnerable even though have higher economic development among the G7 group countries. We suggest a policy framework to strengthen the subject matter of the study.}, }
@article {pmid34125055, year = {2021}, author = {Ranadive, N and Desai, J and Sathish, LM and Knowlton, K and Dutta, P and Ganguly, P and Tiwari, A and Jaiswal, A and Shah, T and Solanki, B and Mavalankar, D and Hess, JJ}, title = {Climate Change Adaptation: Prehospital Data Facilitate the Detection of Acute Heat Illness in India.}, journal = {The western journal of emergency medicine}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {739-749}, pmid = {34125055}, issn = {1936-9018}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Adult ; Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Early Diagnosis ; Early Medical Intervention ; Emergency Medical Services/*methods ; Female ; *Heat Stress Disorders/diagnosis/epidemiology/etiology/therapy ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; Male ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Extreme heat is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, and the incidence of acute heat illness (AHI) will likely increase secondary to anthropogenic climate change. Prompt diagnosis and treatment of AHI are critical; however, relevant diagnostic and surveillance tools have received little attention. In this exploratory cross-sectional and diagnostic accuracy study, we evaluated three tools for use in the prehospital setting: 1) case definitions; 2) portable loggers to measure on-scene heat exposure; and 3) prevalence data for potential AHI risk factors.<br><br>METHODS: We enrolled 480 patients who presented to emergency medical services with chief complaints consistent with AHI in Ahmedabad, India, from April-June 2016 in a cross-sectional study. We evaluated AHI case definition test characteristics in reference to trained prehospital provider impressions, compared on-scene heat index measured by portable loggers to weather station measurements, and identified AHI behavioral and environmental risk factors using logistic regression.<br><br>RESULTS: The case definition for heat exhaustion was 23.8% (12.1-39.5%) sensitive and 93.6% (90.9-95.7%) specific. The positive and negative predictive values were 33.5% (20.8-49.0%) and 90.1% (88.5-91.5%), respectively. Mean scene heat index was 6.7&#xb0;C higher than the mean station heat index (P < 0.001), and station data systematically underestimated heat exposure, particularly for AHI cases. Heat exhaustion cases were associated with on-scene heat index &#x2265; 49&#xb0;C (odds ratio [OR] 2.66 [1.13-6.25], P = 0.025) and a history of recent exertion (OR 3.66 [1.30-10.29], P = 0.014), while on-scene air conditioning was protective (OR 0.29 [0.10-0.85], P = 0.024).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Systematic collection of prehospital data including recent activity history and presence of air conditioning can facilitate early AHI detection, timely intervention, and surveillance. Scene temperature data can be reliably collected and improve heat exposure and AHI risk assessment. Such data may be important elements of surveillance, clinical practice, and climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid34124664, year = {2021}, author = {Morrison, SA and Périard, JD and De Boever, P and Daanen, HAM}, title = {Editorial: The Effects of Climate Change and Environmental Factors on Exercising Children and Youth.}, journal = {Frontiers in sports and active living}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {690171}, pmid = {34124664}, issn = {2624-9367}, }
@article {pmid34121167, year = {2021}, author = {Mansuroğlu, S and Dağ, V and Kalaycı Önaç, A}, title = {Attitudes of people toward climate change regarding the bioclimatic comfort level in tourism cities; evidence from Antalya, Turkey.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {7}, pages = {420}, pmid = {34121167}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Attitude ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; *Tourism ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {In addition to several negative environmental effects, climate change, which reduces bioclimatic comfort levels especially in urban areas, also has economic implications, especially in cities where the economic structure is tourism-oriented. Considering most of the tourism practices are based on outdoor activities in cities such as Antalya, it is of great importance to determine bioclimatic comfort level as well as the attitudes of people toward climate change who live in those conditions to be able to take proper precautions in terms of tourism and urban planning. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to reveal the bioclimatic comfort conditions of Antalya city center, and a comprehensive questionnaire was conducted with the people living in the area questioning the opinions on reasons and consequences of climate change, perceivable effects of climate change in Antalya, and suggestions to prevent or reduce the adverse effects. The areas with appropriate bioclimatic comfort conditions were determined and mapped via geographical information systems using temperature and relative humidity data of the years between 1960 and 2018. The data gathered via questionnaires were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis, regression, correlation, and structural equation modelling via SPSS and AMOS software. According to the results, it was determined that in some parts of city center the bioclimatic comfort conditions decreased to levels that could reach harmful dimensions for human health and the analysis of the questionnaires revealed that people living in that area state that the effects of climate change are perceivable as the precipitation seasons have become irregular. According to the participants, it was determined that a 1-unit increase in environmental measures causes a decrease of 0.136 units in disasters (R[2] = 1.1%). In comparison, 1-unit increase of Administrative Precautions will cause 0.030 units decrease in effects of climate change on vital needs (R[2] = 1.4%). These analysis results show that the respondents expect the disaster scenarios to decrease when environmental measures are increased.}, }
@article {pmid34119988, year = {2021}, author = {Ge, J and Lin, B}, title = {Impact of public support and government's policy on climate change in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {294}, number = {}, pages = {112983}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112983}, pmid = {34119988}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Child ; China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Government ; Humans ; Policy ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global environmental issue that would damage the natural and biological systems. Although there are many controversies about climate change, the temperature rise has become more and more obvious in the world since the 1990s. It is worthwhile to understand whether the public supports the government's policy on climate change and how public support affects climate change. A case study of the first-tier cities in China is done to explore these questions through questionnaire surveys. 3468 valid questionnaires from four first-tier cities in China were screened out are used for individual behavior analysis. The results show that the respondents' perceptions towards climate change in China are laxer than those in other countries, meanwhile, they hope that the government would respond to climate change actively. The influencing factors mainly include the demographic characteristics and their perception of climate change. Demographic characteristics are about gender, income, marital status, age, and whether they have children. Moreover, respondents' perception of climate change has a significant impact on their attitudes towards the government's policies for mitigating climate change. The conclusions are drawn based on the comparative analysis of the survey results and suggestions are put forward for making climate change policies.}, }
@article {pmid34119983, year = {2021}, author = {Piquet, JC and Warren, DL and Saavedra Bolaños, JF and Sánchez Rivero, JM and Gallo-Barneto, R and Cabrera-Pérez, M&#xc1; and Fisher, RN and Fisher, SR and Rochester, CJ and Hinds, B and Nogales, M and López-Darias, M}, title = {Could climate change benefit invasive snakes? Modelling the potential distribution of the California Kingsnake in the Canary Islands.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {294}, number = {}, pages = {112917}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112917}, pmid = {34119983}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; California ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Islands ; Snakes ; Spain ; }, abstract = {The interaction between climate change and biological invasions is a global conservation challenge with major consequences for invasive species management. However, our understanding of this interaction has substantial knowledge gaps; this is particularly relevant for invasive snakes on islands because they can be a serious threat to island ecosystems. Here we evaluated the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of invasive snakes on islands, using the invasion of the California kingsnake (Lampropeltis californiae) in Gran Canaria. We analysed the potential distribution of L. californiae under current and future climatic conditions in the Canary Islands, with the underlying hypothesis that the archipelago might be suitable for the species under these climate scenarios. Our results indicate that the Canary Islands are currently highly suitable for the invasive snake, with increased suitability under the climate change scenarios tested here. This study supports the idea that invasive reptiles represent a substantial threat to near-tropical regions, and builds on previous studies suggesting that the menace of invasive reptiles may persist or even be exacerbated by climate change. We suggest future research should continue to fill the knowledge gap regarding invasive reptiles, in particular snakes, to clarify their potential future impacts on global biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid34119962, year = {2021}, author = {Flores, F and Marques, JA and Uthicke, S and Fisher, R and Patel, F and Kaserzon, S and Negri, AP}, title = {Combined effects of climate change and the herbicide diuron on the coral Acropora millepora.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {169}, number = {}, pages = {112582}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112582}, pmid = {34119962}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Diuron/toxicity ; *Herbicides/toxicity ; }, abstract = {The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is threatened by climate change and local pressures, including contaminants in nearshore habitats. This study investigated the combined effects of a GBR-relevant contaminant, the herbicide diuron, under current and two future climate scenarios on the coral Acropora millepora. All physiological responses tested (effective quantum yield (ΔF/Fm'), photosynthesis, calcification rate) were negatively affected with increasing concentrations of diuron. Interactive effects between diuron and climate were observed for all responses; however, climate had no significant effect on ΔF/Fm' or calcification rates. Photosynthesis was negatively affected as the climate scenarios were adjusted from ambient (28.1 °C, pCO2 = 397 ppm) to RCP8.5 2050 (29.1 °C, pCO2 = 680 ppm) and 2100 (30.2 °C, pCO2 = 858 ppm) with EC50 values declining from 19.4 to 10.6 and 2.6 μg L[-1] diuron in turn. These results highlight the likelihood that water quality guideline values may need to be adjusted as the climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid34119047, year = {2021}, author = {Ji, Y and Gao, K}, title = {Effects of climate change factors on marine macroalgae: A review.}, journal = {Advances in marine biology}, volume = {88}, number = {}, pages = {91-136}, doi = {10.1016/bs.amb.2020.11.001}, pmid = {34119047}, issn = {2162-5875}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Photosynthesis ; Seawater ; *Seaweed ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Marine macroalgae, the main primary producers in coastal waters, play important roles in the fishery industry and global carbon cycles. With progressive ocean global changes, however, they are increasingly exposed to enhanced levels of multiple environmental drivers, such as ocean acidification, warming, heatwaves, UV radiation and deoxygenation. While most macroalgae have developed physiological strategies against variations of these drivers, their eco-physiological responses to each or combinations of the drivers differ spatiotemporally and species-specifically. Many freshwater macroalgae are tolerant of pH drop and its diel fluctuations and capable of acclimating to changes in carbonate chemistry. However, calcifying species, such as coralline algae, are very sensitive to acidification of seawater, which reduces their calcification, and additionally, temperature rise and UV further decrease their physiological performance. Except for these calcifying species, both economically important and harmful macroalgae can benefit from elevated CO2 concentrations and moderate temperature rise, which might be responsible for increasing events of harmful macroalgal blooms including green macroalgal blooms caused by Ulva spp. and golden tides caused by Sargassum spp. Upper intertidal macroalgae, especially those tolerant of dehydration during low tide, increase their photosynthesis under elevated CO2 concentrations during the initial dehydration period, however, these species might be endangered by heatwaves, which can expose them to high temperature levels above their thermal windows' upper limit. On the other hand, since macroalgae are distributed in shallow waters, they are inevitably exposed to solar UV radiation. The effects of UV radiation, depending on weather conditions and species, can be harmful as well as beneficial to many species. Moderate levels of UV-A (315-400nm) can enhance photosynthesis of green, brown and red algae, while UV-B (280-315nm) mainly show inhibitory impacts. Although little has been documented on the combined effects of elevated CO2, temperature or heatwaves with UV radiation, exposures to heatwaves during midday under high levels of UV radiation can be detrimental to most species, especially to their microscopic stages which are less tolerant of climate change induced stress. In parallel, reduced availability of dissolved O2 in coastal water along with eutrophication might favour the macroalgae's carboxylation process by suppressing their oxygenation or photorespiration. In this review, we analyse effects of climate change-relevant drivers individually and/or jointly on different macroalgal groups and different life cycle stages based on the literatures surveyed, and provide perspectives for future studies.}, }
@article {pmid34118096, year = {2021}, author = {Maebe, K and Hart, AF and Marshall, L and Vandamme, P and Vereecken, NJ and Michez, D and Smagghe, G}, title = {Bumblebee resilience to climate change, through plastic and adaptive responses.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {18}, pages = {4223-4237}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15751}, pmid = {34118096}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {3094785//Research Foundation of Flanders - FWO/ ; G042618N//Research Foundation of Flanders - FWO/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Bees ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Pollination ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Bumblebees are ubiquitous, cold-adapted eusocial bees found worldwide from subarctic to tropical regions of the world. They are key pollinators in most temperate and boreal ecosystems, and both wild and managed populations are significant contributors to agricultural pollination services. Despite their broad ecological niche at the genus level, bumblebee species are threatened by climate change, particularly by rising average temperatures, intensifying seasonality and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. While some temperature extremes may be offset at the individual or colony level through temperature regulation, most bumblebees are expected to exhibit specific plastic responses, selection in various key traits, and/or range contractions under even the mildest climate change. In this review, we provide an in-depth and up-to-date review on the various ways by which bumblebees overcome the threats associated with current and future global change. We use examples relevant to the fields of bumblebee physiology, morphology, behaviour, phenology, and dispersal to illustrate and discuss the contours of this new theoretical framework. Furthermore, we speculate on the extent to which adaptive responses to climate change may be influenced by bumblebees' capacity to disperse and track suitable climate conditions. Closing the knowledge gap and improving our understanding of bumblebees' adaptability or avoidance behaviour to different climatic circumstances will be necessary to improve current species climate response models. These models are essential to make correct predictions of species vulnerability in the face of future climate change and human-induced environmental changes to unfold appropriate future conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid34112040, year = {2022}, author = {van Swol, LM and Bloomfield, EF and Chang, CT and Willes, S}, title = {Fostering climate change consensus: The role of intimacy in group discussions.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {103-118}, doi = {10.1177/09636625211020661}, pmid = {34112040}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Emotions ; Humans ; *Interpersonal Relations ; Self Disclosure ; Sexual Partners/psychology ; }, abstract = {This study examined if creating intimacy in a group discussion is more effective toward reaching consensus about climate change than a focus on information. Participants were randomly assigned to either a group that spent the first part of an online discussion engaging in self-disclosure and focusing on shared values (intimacy condition) or discussing information from an article about climate change (information condition). Afterward, all groups were given the same instructions to try to come to group consensus on their opinions about climate change. Participants in the intimacy condition had higher ratings of social cohesion, group attraction, task interdependence, and collective engagement and lower ratings of ostracism than the information condition. Intimacy groups were more likely to reach consensus, with ostracism and the emotional tone of discussion mediating this effect. Participants were more likely to change their opinion to reflect that climate change is real in the intimacy than information condition.}, }
@article {pmid34111792, year = {2021}, author = {Fan, M and Xu, J and Chen, Y and Li, W}, title = {Modeling streamflow driven by climate change in data-scarce mountainous basins.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {790}, number = {}, pages = {148256}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148256}, pmid = {34111792}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Hydrology ; Neural Networks, Computer ; Rivers ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on the water environment have aroused widespread concern. With global warming, mountainous basins are facing serious water supply situations. However, there are limited meteorological stations on mountains, which thus creates a challenge in terms of accurate simulation of streamflow and water resources. To solve this problem, this study developed a method to model streamflow in data-scarce mountainous basins. Selecting the two head waters originating in the Tienshan mountains, Aksu and Kaidu Rivers, we firstly reconstructed precipitation and temperature dynamics based on Earth system data products, and then integrated the radial basis function artificial neural network and complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise to model streamflow. Comparison with the observed streamflow according to hydrological stations indicated that the proposed approach was highly accurate. The modeling results showed that the El-Niño Southern Oscillation, temperature, precipitation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation are the main factors driving streamflow, and the streamflow decreased in both the Aksu River and Kaidu River between 2000 and 2017.}, }
@article {pmid34111789, year = {2021}, author = {Des, M and Fernández-Nóvoa, D and deCastro, M and Gómez-Gesteira, JL and Sousa, MC and Gómez-Gesteira, M}, title = {Modeling salinity drop in estuarine areas under extreme precipitation events within a context of climate change: Effect on bivalve mortality in Galician Rías Baixas.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {790}, number = {}, pages = {148147}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148147}, pmid = {34111789}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; *Climate Change ; Fresh Water ; Rivers ; Salinity ; }, abstract = {The mortality of infaunal bivalves (Venerupis corrugata, Cerastoderma edule, Ruditapes decussatus and Ruditapes philippinarum) due to a drop in salinity caused by extreme precipitation events in estuarine areas has been analyzed within a context of climate change. The Rías Baixas (NW Iberian Peninsula) were selected as a representative area of the estuarine environments where bivalve gathering is performed. Bivalve mortality under extreme precipitation events was analyzed both for historical (1990-2019) and future (2070-2099) periods. Precipitation data were retrieved from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and were converted into river discharges using the HEC-HMS hydrological model. The calculated river discharges were introduced into the Delft3D hydrodynamic model and simulations were performed in order to calculate transport conditions in the Rías Baixas. Salinity data were analyzed to estimate the mortality of the species due to salinity drops. In general, future conditions of moderate and severe mortality may be worse than historically observed, being more intense and covering larger areas. This is mainly observed under neap tides due to less dilution of freshwater plumes when compared with spring tides. Although all the Rías Baixas may be potentially affected, the impact will differ for each ria, being Arousa, where the highest discharges occur, the most affected. The differences among rias, especially those with a similar discharge pattern as Pontevedra and Vigo, suggest that bathymetric features also play a key role in the extent of the area affected by mortality.}, }
@article {pmid34111246, year = {2021}, author = {Lodeyro, AF and Krapp, AR and Carrillo, N}, title = {Photosynthesis and chloroplast redox signaling in the age of global warming: stress tolerance, acclimation, and developmental plasticity.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {72}, number = {16}, pages = {5919-5937}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erab270}, pmid = {34111246}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Chloroplasts/metabolism ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Global Warming ; Oxidation-Reduction ; Photosynthesis ; }, abstract = {Contemporary climate change is characterized by the increased intensity and frequency of environmental stress events such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves, which have a debilitating impact on photosynthesis and growth, compromising the production of food, feed, and biofuels for an expanding population. The need to increase crop productivity in the context of global warming has fueled attempts to improve several key plant features such as photosynthetic performance, assimilate partitioning, and tolerance to environmental stresses. Chloroplast redox metabolism, including photosynthetic electron transport and CO2 reductive assimilation, are primary targets of most stress conditions, leading to excessive excitation pressure, photodamage, and propagation of reactive oxygen species. Alterations in chloroplast redox poise, in turn, provide signals that exit the plastid and modulate plant responses to the environmental conditions. Understanding the molecular mechanisms involved in these processes could provide novel tools to increase crop yield in suboptimal environments. We describe herein various interventions into chloroplast redox networks that resulted in increased tolerance to multiple sources of environmental stress. They included manipulation of endogenous components and introduction of electron carriers from other organisms, which affected not only stress endurance but also leaf size and longevity. The resulting scenario indicates that chloroplast redox pathways have an important impact on plant growth, development, and defense that goes beyond their roles in primary metabolism. Manipulation of these processes provides additional strategies for the design of crops with improved performance under destabilized climate conditions as foreseen for the future.}, }
@article {pmid34111202, year = {2021}, author = {Cameron, L and Rocque, R and Penner, K and Mauro, I}, title = {Evidence-based communication on climate change and health: Testing videos, text, and maps on climate change and Lyme disease in Manitoba, Canada.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {e0252952}, pmid = {34111202}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Evidence-Based Medicine ; Focus Groups ; Geographic Mapping ; Health Promotion/*methods ; Humans ; Lyme Disease/*epidemiology ; Manitoba ; Public Health ; Text Messaging ; Video Recording ; }, abstract = {Given the climate crisis and its cumulative impacts on public health, effective communication strategies that engage the public in adaptation and mitigation are critical. Many have argued that a health frame increases engagement, as do visual methodologies including online and interactive platforms, yet to date there has been limited research on audience responses to health messaging using visual interventions. This study explores public attitudes regarding communication tools focused on climate change and climate-affected Lyme disease through six focus groups (n = 61) in rural and urban southern Manitoba, Canada. The results add to the growing evidence of the efficacy of visual and storytelling methods in climate communications and argues for a continuum of mediums: moving from video, text, to maps. Findings underscore the importance of tailoring both communication messages and mediums to increase uptake of adaptive health and environmental behaviours, for some audiences bridging health and climate change while for others strategically decoupling them.}, }
@article {pmid34109875, year = {2022}, author = {Rankoana, SA}, title = {Climate change impacts on indigenous health promotion: the case study of Dikgale community in Limpopo Province, South Africa.}, journal = {Global health promotion}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {58-64}, doi = {10.1177/17579759211015183}, pmid = {34109875}, issn = {1757-9767}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Health Promotion ; Humans ; South Africa ; Water ; }, abstract = {The most important determinants of indigenous health promotion are availability and accessibility of water, food and traditional medicine. It is for this reason that the 1986 Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion proposed the inclusion of food, water and ecosystems in any health promotion strategies. The present study describes the extent to which climate change in the form of rainfall scarcity and increased temperatures impacts the availability and accessibility of quality water, food and traditional medicine as basic determinants of indigenous health promotion. In-depth interviews were conducted with 240 participants purposely selected from Dikgale community in Limpopo Province, South Africa. The study results show that availability and accessibility of water, food and traditional medicine are negatively impacted by increased temperature and scarcity of rainfall. These resources are scarcely encountered, and where they exist, they are of poor quality. However, community members resorted to modern technological practices such as sourcing water from the municipal water reticulation system, buying foodstuffs from retail outlets and immunization against disease via modern health care facilities. It can be deduced from the study that the prerequisites of indigenous health promotion are climate-sensitive. They become available and accessible under favourable climate conditions, and are scarce under unfavourable climate conditions, a situation that compromises the practice of indigenous health promotion.}, }
@article {pmid34109000, year = {2022}, author = {Hochachka, G}, title = {Finding shared meaning in the Anthropocene: engaging diverse perspectives on climate change.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {519-539}, pmid = {34109000}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {The scientific evidence of climate change has never been clearer and more convergent, and calls for transformations to sustainability have never been greater. Yet, perspectives and social opinions about it remain fractured, and collaborative action is faltering. Climate policy seeks to forge a singular sense of climate change, dominated by an 'information deficit model' that focuses on transferring climate science to the lay public. Critics argue that this leaves out certain perspectives, including the plurality of meanings uncovered through participatory approaches. However, questions remain about how these approaches can better account for nuances in the psychological complexity of climate change, without getting stuck in the cul-de-sacs of epistemological relativism and post-truth politics. In this paper, I explore an approach through which we might find shared meaning at the interface of individual and collective views about climate change. I first present a conceptual framework that describes five psychological reasons why climate change challenges individual and collective meaning-making, and also provides a way to understand how meaning is organized within that. I then use this framework to inform the use of photo voice as a transformative (action-research) method, examining its ability to overcome some of the meaning-making challenges specific to climate change. I discuss how participants from a coffee cooperative in Guatemala reflected first on their own climate meanings and then engaged in a meaning-making process with other actors in the coffee value chain. Findings suggest a psychosocial approach to climate engagement-one that engages both subjectively and intersubjectively on the complexities unique to climate change-is helpful in acknowledging an ontological pluralism of 'climate changes' amongst individuals, while also supporting a nexus-agreement collectively. This may in turn contribute to a more effective and ethical process of transformation.}, }
@article {pmid34108165, year = {2021}, author = {Rocque, RJ and Beaudoin, C and Ndjaboue, R and Cameron, L and Poirier-Bergeron, L and Poulin-Rheault, RA and Fallon, C and Tricco, AC and Witteman, HO}, title = {Health effects of climate change: an overview of systematic reviews.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {e046333}, pmid = {34108165}, issn = {2044-6055}, support = {FDN-148426/CAPMC/CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop a systematic synthesis of systematic reviews of health impacts of climate change, by synthesising studies' characteristics, climate impacts, health outcomes and key findings.<br><br>DESIGN: We conducted an overview of systematic reviews of health impacts of climate change. We registered our review in PROSPERO (CRD42019145972). No ethical approval was required since we used secondary data. Additional data are not available.<br><br>DATA SOURCES: On 22 June 2019, we searched Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Embase, Cochrane and Web of Science.<br><br>ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included systematic reviews that explored at least one health impact of climate change.<br><br>DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We organised systematic reviews according to their key characteristics, including geographical regions, year of publication and authors' affiliations. We mapped the climate effects and health outcomes being studied and synthesised major findings. We used a modified version of A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews-2 (AMSTAR-2) to assess the quality of studies.<br><br>RESULTS: We included 94 systematic reviews. Most were published after 2015 and approximately one-fifth contained meta-analyses. Reviews synthesised evidence about five categories of climate impacts; the two most common were meteorological and extreme weather events. Reviews covered 10 health outcome categories; the 3 most common were (1) infectious diseases, (2) mortality and (3) respiratory, cardiovascular or neurological outcomes. Most reviews suggested a deleterious impact of climate change on multiple adverse health outcomes, although the majority also called for more research.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Most systematic reviews suggest that climate change is associated with worse human health. This study provides a comprehensive higher order summary of research on health impacts of climate change. Study limitations include possible missed relevant reviews, no meta-meta-analyses, and no assessment of overlap. Future research could explore the potential explanations between these associations to propose adaptation and mitigation strategies and could include broader sociopsychological health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34106494, year = {2021}, author = {McManus, LC and Forrest, DL and Tekwa, EW and Schindler, DE and Colton, MA and Webster, MM and Essington, TE and Palumbi, SR and Mumby, PJ and Pinsky, ML}, title = {Evolution and connectivity influence the persistence and recovery of coral reefs under climate change in the Caribbean, Southwest Pacific, and Coral Triangle.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {18}, pages = {4307-4321}, pmid = {34106494}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {GBMF4910//Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation/ ; GBMF5502//Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation/ ; PGA-CORAL-042017//Nature Conservancy/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Corals are experiencing unprecedented decline from climate change-induced mass bleaching events. Dispersal not only contributes to coral reef persistence through demographic rescue but can also hinder or facilitate evolutionary adaptation. Locations of reefs that are likely to survive future warming therefore remain largely unknown, particularly within the context of both ecological and evolutionary processes across complex seascapes that differ in temperature range, strength of connectivity, network size, and other characteristics. Here, we used eco-evolutionary simulations to examine coral adaptation to warming across reef networks in the Caribbean, the Southwest Pacific, and the Coral Triangle. We assessed the factors associated with coral persistence in multiple reef systems to understand which results are general and which are sensitive to particular geographic contexts. We found that evolution can be critical in preventing extinction and facilitating the long-term recovery of coral communities in all regions. Furthermore, the strength of immigration to a reef (destination strength) and current sea surface temperature robustly predicted reef persistence across all reef networks and across temperature projections. However, we found higher initial coral cover, slower recovery, and more evolutionary lag in the Coral Triangle, which has a greater number of reefs and more larval settlement than the other regions. We also found the lowest projected future coral cover in the Caribbean. These findings suggest that coral reef persistence depends on ecology, evolution, and habitat network characteristics, and that, under an emissions stabilization scenario (RCP 4.5), recovery may be possible over multiple centuries.}, }
@article {pmid34105645, year = {2021}, author = {Kazmi, FA and Shafique, F and Hassan, MU and Khalid, S and Ali, N and Akbar, N and Batool, K and Khalid, M and Khawaja, S}, title = {Ecological impacts of climate change on the snow leopard (Panthera unica) in South Asia.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {82}, number = {}, pages = {e240219}, doi = {10.1590/1519-6984.240219}, pmid = {34105645}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {Animals ; Asia ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Felidae ; *Panthera ; }, abstract = {Snow leopard (Panthera unica) is a felid which lives in the highly rugged areas of alpine regions in different mountain ranges of South and Central Asia. This solitary animal needs large spaces for its ranges but due to climate change and relatively faster rate of global warming in South Asian mountain ranges, its habitat is going to shrink and fragment by tree-line shifts and change in hydrology of the area. Vegetative modification of montane flora and competition with domestic goats will create its prey's population to decline along with a chance of a direct conflict and competition with the common leopard. Common leopard being more adaptable, grouped, and larger in size can be a significant stressor for a smaller and solitary snow leopard. Habitat would shrink, and snow leopard can possibly move upslope or northward to central Asian ranges and their predicted migratory patterns are unknown.}, }
@article {pmid34103183, year = {2021}, author = {Rodriguez-Delgado, C and Bergillos, RJ and Medina-Lopez, E}, title = {Corrigendum to "Wave energy assessment under climate change through artificial intelligence" [Sci. Total Environ. 760 (2021) 144039].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {789}, number = {}, pages = {147963}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147963}, pmid = {34103183}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid34103120, year = {2021}, author = {Krzanowski, J}, title = {The need for biodiversity champions in psychiatry: the entwined crises of climate change and ecological collapse.}, journal = {BJPsych bulletin}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {238-243}, pmid = {34103120}, issn = {2056-4694}, abstract = {The past 20 years have seen the disappearance and degradation of biodiversity on earth at unprecedented rates. This phenomenon shares similar drivers to those behind climate change yet requires its own solutions. The twin catastrophes of climate change and biodiversity loss demonstrate how our health is bound up in the vitality of this planet. There has been an increasing effort on the part of healthcare professionals to appreciate this relationship, as evidenced by the growing influence of planetary health as a discipline. However, the health impacts of biodiversity loss have been less focused on than those brought on by climate change. Psychiatry's appreciation of the interface between environments and our health, alongside the evidence for the connection between nature and mental health specifically, prompt psychiatrists to ensure that the institution of healthcare throws its influence equally behind solutions to climate change as well as biodiversity loss.}, }
@article {pmid34102565, year = {2021}, author = {Habib, R and White, K and Hardisty, DJ and Zhao, J}, title = {Shifting consumer behavior to address climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {108-113}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.04.007}, pmid = {34102565}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Consumer Behavior ; Female ; Food ; Guilt ; Humans ; Male ; *Refuse Disposal ; }, abstract = {We review recent articles on how to change consumer behavior in ways that improve climate impacts, with a special focus on those articles using experimental interventions and measuring actual behaviors. We organize the findings using the SHIFT framework to categorize behavior change strategies based on five psychological factors: Social influence (e.g. communicating that others are changing to plant-based diets doubled meatless lunch orders), Habit (e.g. consumer collaboration to establish new, value-based practices helped to reduce food waste), Individual self (e.g. when women made up half of the group, 51% more trees were conserved), Feelings and cognition (e.g. anticipated guilt reduced choice of unethical attributes in made-to-order products), and Tangibility (e.g. concrete representations of the future of recycled products improved recycling behavior).}, }
@article {pmid34102446, year = {2021}, author = {Jódar, J and Herms, I and Lambán, LJ and Martos-Rosillo, S and Herrera-Lameli, C and Urrutia, J and Soler, A and Custodio, E}, title = {Isotopic content in high mountain karst aquifers as a proxy for climate change impact in Mediterranean zones: The Port del Comte karst aquifer (SE Pyrenees, Catalonia, Spain).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {790}, number = {}, pages = {148036}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148036}, pmid = {34102446}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Groundwater ; Hydrology ; Spain ; }, abstract = {The objective of this work is to characterize the impact of climate change in the karst aquifer of the Port del Comte Massif (PCM). Six regional climate models (RCMs) from CLYM'PY Project are used to analyse the magnitude and trends of changes on precipitation and temperature (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) and how these changes propagate through the hydrogeological system as groundwater resources availability and the associated water isotopic content. The study uses the RCMs climate change forcings as input data to a combination of (1) a semi-distributed hydrological model for simulating the hydrodynamical response of the aquifer, and (2) a lumped parameter model for simulating the isotopic content in groundwater at the outlet of the aquifer. A mean decrease of 2.6% and 1.9% in yearly precipitation and a mean increase of 1.9 and 3.1 °C in average temperature is expected in PCM at the end of the 21st century in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. This climate signal entering the hydrogeological system results in a mean decrease in recharge of 3.9% and 0.5% from rainfall and of 59.3% and 76.1% from snowmelt, and a decrease of 7.6% and 4.5% in total system discharge, but also generates an isotopic enrichment in groundwater discharge (δ[18]OGW) of 0.50‰ and 0.84‰, respectively. Moreover, from a long-term (2010-2100) perspective, the mean trend in δ[18]OGW is 0.7‰/100 yr and 1.2‰/100 yr for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, resulting in easily measurable annual lapse rates with the current analytical methods.}, }
@article {pmid34101949, year = {2021}, author = {Zahoor, B and Liu, X and Ahmad, B and Kumar, L and Songer, M}, title = {Impact of climate change on Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) and its autumn diet in the northern highlands of Pakistan.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {18}, pages = {4294-4306}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15743}, pmid = {34101949}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {27847-1//Rufford Small Grant/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Diet ; Humans ; Pakistan ; Seasons ; *Ursidae ; }, abstract = {Approximately 20%-30% of plant and animal species are at risk of extinction by the end of the 21st century owing to climate change. Range shifts and range contractions in plant species will dramatically affect the distribution of animals relying on them for food and shelter. The negative impacts of climate change on forested landscapes of the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition and distribution. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus), a forest-dwelling species, primarily depends on plants for foraging, and is assumed to be affected by climate change in NHP. Scat analyses and indigenous knowledge from Machiara National Park revealed the maximum consumption of Quercus species (natural food) and Zea mays (human grown food) by the Asiatic black bear in autumn season. We collected the occurrence data of the Asiatic black bear and its commonly used food (three Quercus spp.) in the NHP. We used the MaxEnt model to simulate current and future (in 2050 and 2070) distribution of the species under RCP4.5 (medium carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (extreme carbon emission scenario). The results predict range reduction and extreme fragmentation in the habitats of all the Quercus spp. Besides, a dramatic decrease in the suitable (SH) and very highly suitable (HSH) habitats was predicted in the future. Range shift and range reduction of Quercus spp. may interrupt the denning chronology of Asiatic black bears, escalate the human-black bear conflicts and local extirpation of the species. Given the extent and magnitude of climate change, it will likely not be enough to focus solely on the conservation of the Asiatic black bear. We need more dynamic planning aiming at mitigating the effect of climate change in forested landscapes including the Quercus forests.}, }
@article {pmid34101938, year = {2021}, author = {Rosbakh, S and Hartig, F and Sandanov, DV and Bukharova, EV and Miller, TK and Primack, RB}, title = {Siberian plants shift their phenology in response to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {18}, pages = {4435-4448}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15744}, pmid = {34101938}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//BayHost/ ; 23/2019//Russian Geographic Society/ ; 121030900138-8//Russian Federal Budget/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Plant Leaves ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Siberia has undergone dramatic climatic changes due to global warming in recent decades. Yet, the ecological responses to these climatic changes are still poorly understood due to a lack of data. Here, we use a unique data set from the Russian 'Chronicles of Nature' network to analyse the long-term (1976-2018) phenological shifts in leaf out, flowering, fruiting and senescence of 67 common Siberian plant species. We find that Siberian boreal forest plants advanced their early season (leaf out and flowering) and mid-season (fruiting) phenology by -2.2, -0.7 and -1.6 days/decade, and delayed the onset of senescence by 1.6 days/decade during this period. These mean values, however, are subject to substantial intraspecific variability, which is partly explained by the plants' growth forms. Trees and shrubs advanced leaf out and flowering (-3.1 and -3.3. days/decade) faster than herbs (-1 day/decade), presumably due to the more direct exposure of leaf and flower buds to ambient air for the woody vegetation. For senescence, we detected a reverse pattern: stronger delays in herbs (2.1 days/decade) than in woody plants (1.0-1.2 days/decade), presumably due to the stronger effects of autumn frosts on the leaves of herbs. Interestingly, the timing of fruiting in all four growth forms advanced at similar paces, from 1.4 days/decade in shrubs to 1.7 days/decade in trees and herbs. Our findings point to a strong, yet heterogeneous, response of Siberian plant phenology to recent global warming. Furthermore, the results highlight that species- and growth form-specific differences among study species could be used to identify plants particularly at risk of decline due to their low adaptive capacity or a loss of synchronization with important interaction partners.}, }
@article {pmid34101041, year = {2021}, author = {Thapa, S and Li, H and Li, B and Fu, D and Shi, X and Yabo, S and Lu, L and Qi, H and Zhang, W}, title = {Impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in a Himalayan basin, Nepal.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {7}, pages = {393}, pmid = {34101041}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Nepal ; Rivers ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) is one of the major sources of fresh water on Earth and is currently under serious threat of climate change. This study investigates the future water availability in the Langtang basin, Central Himalayas, Nepal under climate change scenarios using state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques. The daily snow area for the region was derived from MODIS images. The outputs of climate models were used to project the temperature and precipitation until 2100. Three ML models, including Gated recurrent unit (GRU), Long short-term memory (LSTM), and Recurrent neural network (RNN), were developed for snowmelt runoff prediction, and their performance was compared based on statistical indicators. The result suggests that the mean temperature of the basin could rise by 4.98 °C by the end of the century. The annual average precipitation in the basin is likely to increase in the future, especially due to high monsoon rainfall, but winter precipitation could decline. The annual river discharge is projected to upsurge significantly due to increased precipitation and snowmelt, and no shift in hydrograph is expected in the future. Among three ML models, the LSTM model performed better than GRU and RNN models. In summary, this study depicts severe future climate change in the region and quantifies its effect on river discharge. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the suitability of the LSTM model in streamflow prediction in the data-scarce HKH region. The outcomes of this study will be useful for water resource managers and planners in developing strategies to harness the positive impacts and offset the negative effects of climate change in the basin.}, }
@article {pmid34099993, year = {2021}, author = {Moretti, K}, title = {An Education Imperative: Integrating Climate Change Into the Emergency Medicine Curriculum.}, journal = {AEM education and training}, volume = {5}, number = {3}, pages = {e10546}, pmid = {34099993}, issn = {2472-5390}, }
@article {pmid34098275, year = {2021}, author = {Estrela-Segrelles, C and Gómez-Martinez, G and Pérez-Martín, M&#xc1;}, title = {Risk assessment of climate change impacts on Mediterranean coastal wetlands. Application in Júcar River Basin District (Spain).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {790}, number = {}, pages = {148032}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148032}, pmid = {34098275}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Risk Assessment ; Rivers ; Spain ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Sea level rise (SLR) produced by climate change affects severely coastal ecosystems which are currently being impacted by sea level rise in many parts of the world. In relation with coastal wetlands, the most relevant induced effect will occur on water and soil's salt content, especially in areas below sea level. This could lead into a reduction of habitat for the wetlands' biota. In this context, this research assesses the SLR related risk in the Júcar River Basin District (JRBD). Hazard, exposure, impact, vulnerability, and risk maps have been elaborated. The design and application of measures is prioritized in those areas classified as Very High risk with the aim of improving coastal ecosystems' climate change adaptation. In Western Mediterranean coast, average sea level (ASL) will rise 0.16 m (2026-2045) and 0.79 m (2081-2100) referred to the reference period (1986-2005). High-end scenarios indicate that ASL will rise 1.35 m-1.92 m (2081-2100). The risk analysis results show that 90% of JRBD area affected by SLR, corresponds to coastal wetlands. Half of the affected area belongs to L'Albufera de Valencia wetland with 32.44 km[2] below sea level, which represents a water volume of 42.64 hm[3] (2026-2045) and a surface between 72.53 and 138.96 km[2] representing from 118.36 to 289.70 hm[3] (2081-2100). In the case of L'Albufera de Valencia the impact will be throughout the 21st century, the average rate of SLR will leap from 4 to 11 cm per decade, therefore MSL will reach the current wetland levels by 2040-2045. This makes necessary to modify the lake's management rules, which will lead to an increase of 40 hm3 in water storage and a reduction in water's renewal time compared to current rates (from 15 to 5 times a year).}, }
@article {pmid34092934, year = {2021}, author = {Mabon, L and Shih, WY}, title = {Urban greenspace as a climate change adaptation strategy for subtropical Asian cities: A comparative study across cities in three countries.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {68}, number = {}, pages = {102248}, pmid = {34092934}, issn = {0959-3780}, abstract = {Interest in nature-based approaches for climate change adaptation in cities is growing. Whilst there is a growing field of scholarship in a European and North America setting, research on the policy and governance of urban greenspace for climate adaptation in subtropical Asia is limited. Given the different development patterns, environmental characteristics and governance arrangements in subtropical cities, plus their comparatively large population and high climate risk, this is a significant knowledge gap. In response, this paper evaluates competences - skill sets, capabilities, and supporting policy and legislation - to enact adaptation through greenspace across different governance contexts; and assesses how international rhetoric on nature-based adaptation becomes localised to subtropical Asian city settings. We conduct interviews with stakeholders, plus review of relevant policy and city-specific research, for three cities with different governance and development contexts: Hanoi (Vietnam); Taipei (Taiwan); and Fukuoka (Japan). Across all three cases, we find that institutional structures and processes for connecting different remits and knowledge systems are a bigger challenge than a lack of appropriate policy or individuals with the required technical knowledge. However, opportunities for civil society participation and consideration of justice issues vary between the cities according to the socio-political context. These findings illustrate the value of individuals and organisations able to work across institutional boundaries in linking greenspace and adaptation agendas for subtropical Asian cities; and the importance of competence in collaboration with developers and civil society so that the rapid development or regeneration seen in subtropical Asian contexts does not tend towards green climate gentrification. More broadly, our findings show that the diverse nature of subtropical Asian cities means the role of greenspace in climate adaptation is likely to be context-specific, and thus that caution must be exercised against uncritically importing best practices from exemplar cases elsewhere.}, }
@article {pmid34088386, year = {2021}, author = {Cabrera López, C and Urrutia Landa, I and Jiménez-Ruiz, CA}, title = {Climate change: SEPAR's responsibilities.}, journal = {Archivos de bronconeumologia}, volume = {57}, number = {6}, pages = {381-382}, doi = {10.1016/j.arbr.2021.04.007}, pmid = {34088386}, issn = {2173-5751}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid34088165, year = {2021}, author = {Gautier, E and Dépret, T and Cavero, J and Costard, F and Virmoux, C and Fedorov, A and Konstantinov, P and Jammet, M and Brunstein, D}, title = {Fifty-year dynamics of the Lena River islands (Russia): Spatio-temporal pattern of large periglacial anabranching river and influence of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {783}, number = {}, pages = {147020}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147020}, pmid = {34088165}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Lena, a large river that drains the northern coldest region of the Northern Hemisphere, is deeply influenced by the continuous permafrost and degradation of the frozen ground has been shown to be the main cause of the marked increase in water discharge. The first objective of this study conducted on the middle Lena was to analyze the island dynamics for the last 50 years (1967 to 2017). Several morphological parameters were surveyed using a GIS on seven series of aerial photographs and satellite images of a 100 km-long reach: island size, eroded and deposited areas, position and morphology of the islands. This approach enabled the identification of evolutionary models. Our second objective was to evaluate the potential impact of ongoing climate change. We analyzed morphological parameters with respect to two main factors: efficient discharge (bar-full, bankfull and flood discharges) and water temperature. A potential erosion index (PEI) was calculated by coupling the duration of discharge exceeding the bar-full level and water temperature. The results identified several morphological changes that occurred at the end of the 20th century: an increase in the number of islands, greater eroded surfaces and accelerated migration of islands. Comparing the dynamics of islands with and without permafrost is a good indicator of their sensitivity to climate change. A major change was observed concerning the erosion and migration of islands with and without permafrost. This evolution seems to be linked both with the duration of the discharge that exceeds the bar-full level and with the number of flood peaks. The water temperature in May and August have a major influence on permafrost islands that become increasingly destabilized. Thus, as large rivers are assumed to slowly react to climate change, the recent changes in the Lena River prove that the global change deeply impacts periglacial rivers.}, }
@article {pmid34088119, year = {2021}, author = {Stankovic, M and Ambo-Rappe, R and Carly, F and Dangan-Galon, F and Fortes, MD and Hossain, MS and Kiswara, W and Van Luong, C and Minh-Thu, P and Mishra, AK and Noiraksar, T and Nurdin, N and Panyawai, J and Rattanachot, E and Rozaimi, M and Soe Htun, U and Prathep, A}, title = {Quantification of blue carbon in seagrass ecosystems of Southeast Asia and their potential for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {783}, number = {}, pages = {146858}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146858}, pmid = {34088119}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern ; Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geologic Sediments ; India ; Philippines ; }, abstract = {Seagrasses have the ability to contribute towards climate change mitigation, through large organic carbon (Corg) sinks within their ecosystems. Although the importance of blue carbon within these ecosystems has been addressed in some countries of Southeast Asia, the regional and national inventories with the application of nature-based solutions are lacking. In this study, we aim to estimate national coastal blue carbon stocks in the seagrass ecosystems in the countries of Southeast Asia including the Andaman and Nicobar Islands of India. This study further assesses the potential of conservation and restoration practices and highlights the seagrass meadows as nature-based solution for climate change mitigation. The average value of the total carbon storage within seagrass meadows of this region is 121.95 ± 76.11 Mg ha[-1] (average ± SD) and the total Corg stock of the seagrass meadows of this region was 429.11 ± 111.88 Tg, with the highest Corg stock in the Philippines (78%). The seagrass meadows of this region have the capacity to accumulate 5.85-6.80 Tg C year[-1], which accounts for $214.6-249.4 million USD. Under the current rate of decline of 2.82%, the seagrass meadows are emitting 1.65-2.08 Tg of CO2 year[-1] and the economic value of these losses accounts for $21.42-24.96 million USD. The potential of the seagrass meadows to the offset current CO2 emissions varies across the region, with the highest contribution to offset is in the seagrass meadows of the Philippines (11.71%). Current national policies and commitments of nationally determined contributions do not include blue carbon ecosystems as climate mitigation measures, even though these ecosystems can contribute up to 7.03% of the countries' reduction goal of CO2 emissions by 2030. The results of this study highlight and promote the potential of the southeast Asian seagrass meadows to national and international agencies as a practical scheme for nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid34087647, year = {2021}, author = {Gourevitch, JD and Koliba, C and Rizzo, DM and Zia, A and Ricketts, TH}, title = {Quantifying the social benefits and costs of reducing phosphorus pollution under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {293}, number = {}, pages = {112838}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112838}, pmid = {34087647}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Humans ; Lakes ; *Phosphorus/analysis ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Excess phosphorus loading to waterbodies has led to increasing frequency and severity of harmful algal blooms, negatively impacting economic activity and human health. While interventions to improve water quality can create large societal benefits, these investments are costly and the value of benefits is often unknown. Understanding the social and economic impacts of reduced phosphorus loading is critical for developing effective land use policies and for generating public and political support for these initiatives. Here, we quantify the social benefits and costs of improving water quality in Lake Champlain under a range of phosphorus reduction and climate change scenarios between 2016 and 2050. We use statistical models to link water quality outputs from an established integrated assessment model with three categories of benefits: tourism expenditures, property sales, and avoided human health impacts. We estimate the costs of reducing phosphorus loading using data reported by the State of Vermont. We find that under the most aggressive phosphorus reduction scenario, the total benefits of improved water quality are $55 to $60 million between 2016 and 2050. Over this 35 year time horizon, the combined benefits do not outweigh the costs under any scenario. If the time horizon is extended to 2100 or beyond, however, the benefits may exceed the costs if the applied discount rate is less than 3%. Importantly, we almost certainly underestimate the value of clean water, due to the omission of other types of benefits. Despite this uncertainty, our study provides a tractable framework for disentangling the complex relationships between water quality and human well-being, and illuminates the value of reductions in phosphorus loading to society.}, }
@article {pmid34087643, year = {2021}, author = {Iglesias, A and Garrote, L and Bardají, I and Santillán, D and Esteve, P}, title = {Looking into individual choices and local realities to define adaptation options to drought and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {293}, number = {}, pages = {112861}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112861}, pmid = {34087643}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Africa, Northern ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Europe ; Humans ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Climate change adaptation choices defined by local communities reflect individual risk perception and contextual factors. This study examines how local contextual environmental factors contribute to individual choices for adapting to water scarcity in three locations in central Spain. The study evaluates citizens' choices by audience segmentation and explore the role of geographical location in segments' engagement with adaptation and adaptation measure preference. The results of the analysis of the effect of local experience support the findings of other studies that suggest that local experience is linked to risk perception but does not necessarily drive adaptive behaviour. The results suggest that respondents from most degraded areas show a higher local risk perception, but do not show homogeneous commitment to adaptation. The results also indicate differences over adaptation measure preferences across locations. Respondents of less degraded areas have a lower risk perception and show individualistic responses as compared to respondents in water stressed communities. These results highlight the relevance of local experience-driven risk perception in support to adaptation actions. Spain exemplifies many countries in southern Europe and North Africa, where drought is already a challenge to society and it is affecting an increasing number of people.}, }
@article {pmid34086781, year = {2021}, author = {Begum, A and Hamid, SA}, title = {Impoverishment impact of out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in rural Bangladesh: Do the regions facing different climate change risks matter?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {e0252706}, pmid = {34086781}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; Catastrophic Illness ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Financing, Personal ; *Health Expenditures ; Humans ; Rural Population ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Out-of-pocket (OOP) payments for healthcare severely affect the current consumption, future health and earnings capacity of poor/underprivileged households and hence it is crucial for priority setting. This study assesses the variation in overall as well as disease-specific impoverishment impact of OOP payments between the regions experiencing different climate change risks, defined as high disaster-prone (HDP) areas and low-disaster-prone (LDP) areas, in Bangladesh.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: This paper estimated three poverty measures, such as poverty headcount, poverty intensity and normalized poverty gap for all ailments, catastrophic events, diseases types (communicable, non-communicable (NCDs), and accident and injury), illness conditions (acute and chronic) and hospitalization using 3,791 randomly selected rural households (1,203 from HDP and 2,588 from LDP areas) across the regions. Cost of basic need approach was used for estimating poverty line expenditure.<br><br>RESULTS: About 13 percent households annually fall into poverty due to OOP outlays for healthcare. Despite having significantly (p-value&#x2264;0.01) less OOP payments (HDP areas: BDT 5,117; LDP areas: BDT5,811) the impoverishment impact of OOP payments for healthcare in HDP areas (16.5%) has substantially higher than LDP areas (11.3%). Population in HDP areas, especially char (river island; 19.55 percent) and haor (water submerged; 16.80 percent) are more susceptible to any level of OOP payments due to low level of earnings. Catastrophic healthcare expenditure (61.79%) and NCDs (14.29 percent) are exacerbating the poverty level in Bangladesh. Both absolute and relative average poverty gap are more widen in HDP than LDP areas due to catastrophic OOP outlays for healthcare.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The impoverishment effect due to OOP payments for healthcare in both HDP and LDP areas are high, especially for NCDs and catastrophic healthcare expenditure. However, the situation is bit worse in HDP areas. Preventing the escalation of NCDs as well as catastrophic expenditure and hence reducing the level of impoverishment thereof call for restricting tobacco use, increasing physical activity, encouraging to intake healthy diets, ensuring food safety, controlling air pollution, and improving mental health. Moreover, government should give more emphasis, especially in the HDP areas, on making community clinics more functional through providing screening equipment and training to the Community Health Care Providers for early detection of NCDs, and ensuring availability of medicine all the time. Note that other than community clinics, there is little option for providing healthcare in HDP areas due to poor functionality of public facilities as well as lack of private facilities in HDP areas.}, }
@article {pmid34082213, year = {2021}, author = {Tabucanon, AS and Kurisu, K and Hanaki, K}, title = {Assessment and mitigation of tangible flood damages driven by climate change in a tropical city: Hat Yai Municipality, southern Thailand.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {789}, number = {}, pages = {147983}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147983}, pmid = {34082213}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Floods ; Humans ; Hydrology ; Thailand ; }, abstract = {Climate change-induced floods in tropical urban areas have presented a serious global challenge because of failed conventional stormwater management practices. This research aims to develop a comprehensive methodological framework for flood damage estimation and mitigation, particularly in a tropical urban city. In this study, interdisciplinary fields were integrated through statistical downscaling, hydrologic-hydraulic modeling, and the development of flood damage curves. Relationships between tangible flood damage and flood-borne outbreak with flood depths were elucidated to predict future damage. Various flood mitigation strategies were evaluated. Herein, Hat Yai Municipality in Southern Thailand was selected as the study area. The flood simulation was conducted for 2010 and the highest flood damage sensitivity was exhibited by non-commercial buildings due to significant commercial stock damage, which was followed by that observed for detached houses. There was a strong linear relationship between the number of patients infected with leptospirosis and flood depth (R[2] = 0.85). For climate change studies, flood maps for storms with 20-, 50-, and 100-year return periods under the A2/RCP8.5 scenario were generated using hydrological-hydraulic 1D/2D model; these maps were applied with the developed flood damage curves for damage estimation. It was found that reducing flood damage by implementing agroforestry and expanding the main bypass channel provides comparable damage reductions of -25.5% and - 27.5%, respectively, under the worst-case scenario of a 100-year return period in 2040-2059. Therefore, to deal with uncertain climate change situations, the incorporation of structural and non-structural measures is recommended. Such a combination when coupled with an eight-hour flood awareness time can result in a damage reduction of -59.9%. A flood warning system was in high demand by residents in the area; however, damage reduction from this measure alone was not high (approximately -17.0%) when compared to that obtained with other measures; consequently, additional measures were needed.}, }
@article {pmid34079159, year = {2021}, author = {Hristov, J and Barreiro-Hurle, J and Salputra, G and Blanco, M and Witzke, P}, title = {Reuse of treated water in European agriculture: Potential to address water scarcity under climate change.}, journal = {Agricultural water management}, volume = {251}, number = {}, pages = {106872}, pmid = {34079159}, issn = {0378-3774}, abstract = {The use of reclaimed or treated water from urban wastewater treatment plants for irrigation has been proposed as an alternative water source to address water scarcity issues in Europe. In this paper using agro-economic modelling, we analyse if treated water available for agriculture has the potential to reduce freshwater abstraction and, consequently, water stress. Implementing exogenous treated water quantities as an additional water supply at NUTS 2 level in the CAPRI model, we found that treated water reuse is a possible alternative supply source to address water shortages with a very negligible effect on farmers' income and food production in the EU. However, the actual water reuse and water stress reduction is very limited due to high costs. Even climate change effects on water availability and precipitation failed to induce higher use. The one-size-fits-all approach modelled via a flat rate water price only encourages the reuse of treated water in a limited number of EU member states. Thus, in order to maximise the potential of reused water to address water scarcity, different rates should be used so as to ensure higher treated water volumes at lower costs.}, }
@article {pmid34079000, year = {2021}, author = {Laspiur, A and Santos, JC and Medina, SM and Pizarro, JE and Sanabria, EA and Sinervo, B and Ibargüengoytía, NR}, title = {Vulnerability to climate change of a microendemic lizard species from the central Andes.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {11653}, pmid = {34079000}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Argentina ; Body Temperature ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Female ; Hot Temperature ; Lizards/*physiology ; Male ; }, abstract = {Given the rapid loss of biodiversity as consequence of climate change, greater knowledge of ecophysiological and natural history traits are crucial to determine which environmental factors induce stress and drive the decline of threatened species. Liolaemus montanezi (Liolaemidae), a xeric-adapted lizard occurring only in a small geographic range in west-central Argentina, constitutes an excellent model for studies on the threats of climate change on such microendemic species. We describe field data on activity patterns, use of microhabitat, behavioral thermoregulation, and physiology to produce species distribution models (SDMs) based on climate and ecophysiological data. Liolaemus montanezi inhabits a thermally harsh environment which remarkably impacts their activity and thermoregulation. The species shows a daily bimodal pattern of activity and mostly occupies shaded microenvironments. Although the individuals thermoregulate at body temperatures below their thermal preference they avoid high-temperature microenvironments probably to avoid overheating. The population currently persists because of the important role of the habitat physiognomy and not because of niche tracking, seemingly prevented by major rivers that form boundaries of their geographic range. We found evidence of habitat opportunities in the current range and adjacent areas that will likely remain suitable to the year 2070, reinforcing the relevance of the river floodplain for the species' avoidance of extinction.}, }
@article {pmid34078738, year = {2021}, author = {}, title = {Dynamic WHO dashboard for island states highlights barriers and progress on climate change and health.}, journal = {Saudi medical journal}, volume = {42}, number = {6}, pages = {702-703}, pmid = {34078738}, issn = {1658-3175}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid34074065, year = {2021}, author = {Ben Mariem, S and Soba, D and Zhou, B and Loladze, I and Morales, F and Aranjuelo, I}, title = {Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Grain Quality of C3 Cereals: A Meta-Analysis of [CO2], Temperature, and Drought Effects.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {34074065}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {PCIN-2017-007//Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; PID2019-110445RB-I00//Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ ; }, abstract = {Cereal yield and grain quality may be impaired by environmental factors associated with climate change. Major factors, including elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]), elevated temperature, and drought stress, have been identified as affecting C3 crop production and quality. A meta-analysis of existing literature was performed to study the impact of these three environmental factors on the yield and nutritional traits of C3 cereals. Elevated [CO2] stimulates grain production (through larger grain numbers) and starch accumulation but negatively affects nutritional traits such as protein and mineral content. In contrast to [CO2], increased temperature and drought cause significant grain yield loss, with stronger effects observed from the latter. Elevated temperature decreases grain yield by decreasing the thousand grain weight (TGW). Nutritional quality is also negatively influenced by the changing climate, which will impact human health. Similar to drought, heat stress decreases starch content but increases grain protein and mineral concentrations. Despite the positive effect of elevated [CO2], increases to grain yield seem to be counterbalanced by heat and drought stress. Regarding grain nutritional value and within the three environmental factors, the increase in [CO2] is possibly the more detrimental to face because it will affect cereal quality independently of the region.}, }
@article {pmid34073520, year = {2021}, author = {Pepi, M and Focardi, S}, title = {Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria in Aquaculture and Climate Change: A Challenge for Health in the Mediterranean Area.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34073520}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology ; Aquaculture ; Bacteria/genetics ; Climate Change ; *Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; Humans ; Mediterranean Sea ; }, abstract = {Aquaculture is the productive activity that will play a crucial role in the challenges of the millennium, such as the need for proteins that support humans and the respect for the environment. Aquaculture is an important economic activity in the Mediterranean basin. A great impact is presented, however, by aquaculture practices as they involve the use of antibiotics for treatment and prophylaxis. As a consequence of the use of antibiotics in aquaculture, antibiotic resistance is induced in the surrounding bacteria in the column water, sediment, and fish-associated bacterial strains. Through horizontal gene transfer, bacteria can diffuse antibiotic-resistance genes and mobile resistance genes further spreading genetic determinants. Once triggered, antibiotic resistance easily spreads among aquatic microbial communities and, from there, can reach human pathogenic bacteria, making vain the use of antibiotics for human health. Climate change claims a significant role in this context, as rising temperatures can affect cell physiology in bacteria in the same way as antibiotics, causing antibiotic resistance to begin with. The Mediterranean Sea represents a 'hot spot' in terms of climate change and aspects of antibiotic resistance in aquaculture in this area can be significantly amplified, thus increasing threats to human health. Practices must be adopted to counteract negative impacts on human health, with a reduction in the use of antibiotics as a pivotal point. In the meantime, it is necessary to act against climate change by reducing anthropogenic impacts, for example by reducing CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. The One Health type approach, which involves the intervention of different skills, such as veterinary, ecology, and medicine in compliance with the principles of sustainability, is necessary and strongly recommended to face these important challenges for human and animal health, and for environmental safety in the Mediterranean area.}, }
@article {pmid34072447, year = {2021}, author = {Zenda, T and Liu, S and Dong, A and Duan, H}, title = {Advances in Cereal Crop Genomics for Resilience under Climate Change.}, journal = {Life (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {34072447}, issn = {2075-1729}, support = {32071936//National Natural Science Foundation of China (Function and Molecular Mechanism of ZMDNAJ Regulating Drought Resistance in Maize)/ ; }, abstract = {Adapting to climate change, providing sufficient human food and nutritional needs, and securing sufficient energy supplies will call for a radical transformation from the current conventional adaptation approaches to more broad-based and transformative alternatives. This entails diversifying the agricultural system and boosting productivity of major cereal crops through development of climate-resilient cultivars that can sustainably maintain higher yields under climate change conditions, expanding our focus to crop wild relatives, and better exploitation of underutilized crop species. This is facilitated by the recent developments in plant genomics, such as advances in genome sequencing, assembly, and annotation, as well as gene editing technologies, which have increased the availability of high-quality reference genomes for various model and non-model plant species. This has necessitated genomics-assisted breeding of crops, including underutilized species, consequently broadening genetic variation of the available germplasm; improving the discovery of novel alleles controlling important agronomic traits; and enhancing creation of new crop cultivars with improved tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses and superior nutritive quality. Here, therefore, we summarize these recent developments in plant genomics and their application, with particular reference to cereal crops (including underutilized species). Particularly, we discuss genome sequencing approaches, quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping and genome-wide association (GWAS) studies, directed mutagenesis, plant non-coding RNAs, precise gene editing technologies such as CRISPR-Cas9, and complementation of crop genotyping by crop phenotyping. We then conclude by providing an outlook that, as we step into the future, high-throughput phenotyping, pan-genomics, transposable elements analysis, and machine learning hold much promise for crop improvements related to climate resilience and nutritional superiority.}, }
@article {pmid34071641, year = {2021}, author = {Bezgrebelna, M and McKenzie, K and Wells, S and Ravindran, A and Kral, M and Christensen, J and Stergiopoulos, V and Gaetz, S and Kidd, SA}, title = {Climate Change, Weather, Housing Precarity, and Homelessness: A Systematic Review of Reviews.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {34071641}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Ill-Housed Persons ; *Housing ; Humans ; Mental Health ; Review Literature as Topic ; Weather ; }, abstract = {This systematic review of reviews was conducted to examine housing precarity and homelessness in relation to climate change and weather extremes internationally. In a thematic analysis of 15 reviews (5 systematic and 10 non-systematic), the following themes emerged: risk factors for homelessness/housing precarity, temperature extremes, health concerns, structural factors, natural disasters, and housing. First, an increased risk of homelessness has been found for people who are vulnerably housed and populations in lower socio-economic positions due to energy insecurity and climate change-induced natural hazards. Second, homeless/vulnerably-housed populations are disproportionately exposed to climatic events (temperature extremes and natural disasters). Third, the physical and mental health of homeless/vulnerably-housed populations is projected to be impacted by weather extremes and climate change. Fourth, while green infrastructure may have positive effects for homeless/vulnerably-housed populations, housing remains a major concern in urban environments. Finally, structural changes must be implemented. Recommendations for addressing the impact of climate change on homelessness and housing precarity were generated, including interventions focusing on homelessness/housing precarity and reducing the effects of weather extremes, improved housing and urban planning, and further research on homelessness/housing precarity and climate change. To further enhance the impact of these initiatives, we suggest employing the Human Rights-Based Approach (HRBA).}, }
@article {pmid34071166, year = {2021}, author = {Baazeem, A and Rodriguez, A and Medina, A and Magan, N}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change Interacting Abiotic Factors on Growth, aflD and aflR Gene Expression and Aflatoxin B1 Production by Aspergillus flavus Strains In Vitro and on Pistachio Nuts.}, journal = {Toxins}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {34071166}, issn = {2072-6651}, mesh = {Aflatoxin B1/*biosynthesis ; Aspergillus flavus/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; DNA-Binding Proteins/*genetics ; Fungal Proteins/*genetics ; Gene Expression ; Pistacia/*microbiology ; Transcription Factors/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Pistachio nuts are an important economic tree nut crop which is used directly or processed for many food-related activities. They can become colonized by mycotoxigenic spoilage fungi, especially Aspergillus flavus, mainly resulting in contamination with aflatoxins (AFs), especially aflatoxin B1 (AFB1). The prevailing climate in which these crops are grown changes as temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels increase, and episodes of extreme wet/dry cycles occur due to human industrial activity. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of interacting Climate Change (CC)-related abiotic factors of temperature (35 vs. 37 °C), CO2 (400 vs. 1000 ppm), and water stress (0.98-0.93 water activity, aw) on (a) growth (b) aflD and aflR biosynthetic gene expression and (c) AFB1 production by two strains A. flavus (AB3, AB10) in vitro on milled pistachio-based media and when colonizing layers of shelled raw pistachio nuts. The A. flavus strains were resilient in terms of growth on pistachio-based media and the colonisation of pistachio nuts with no significant difference when exposed to the interacting three-way climate-related abiotic factors. However, in vitro studies showed that AFB1 production was significantly stimulated (p < 0.05), especially when exposed to 1000 ppm CO2 at 0.98-0.95 aw and 35 °C, and sometimes in the 37 °C treatment group at 0.98 aw. The relative expression of the structural aflD gene involved in AFB1 biosynthesis was decreased or only slightly increased, relative to the control conditions at elevated CO, regardless of the aw level examined. For the regulatory aflR gene expression, there was a significant (p < 0.05) increase in 1000 ppm CO2 and 37 °C for both strains, especially at 0.95 aw. The in situ colonization of pistachio nuts resulted in a significant (p < 0.05) stimulation of AFB1 production at 35 °C and 1000 ppm CO2 for both strains, especially at 0.98 aw. At 37 °C, AFB1 production was either decreased, in strain AB3, or remained similar, as in strain AB10, when exposed to 1000 ppm CO2. This suggests that CC factors may have a differential effect, depending on the interacting conditions of temperature, exposure to CO2 and the level of water stress on AFB1 production.}, }
@article {pmid34068688, year = {2021}, author = {Ligsay, A and Telle, O and Paul, R}, title = {Challenges to Mitigating the Urban Health Burden of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {34068688}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Islands ; Urban Health ; *Vector Borne Diseases ; }, abstract = {Cities worldwide are facing ever-increasing pressure to develop mitigation strategies for all sectors to deal with the impacts of climate change. Cities are expected to house 70% of the world's population by 2050, and developing related resilient health systems is a significant challenge. Because of their physical nature, cities' surface temperatures are often substantially higher than that of the surrounding rural areas, generating the so-called Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Whilst considerable emphasis has been placed on strategies to mitigate against the UHI-associated negative health effects of heat and pollution in cities, mosquito-borne diseases have largely been ignored. However, the World Health Organization estimates that one of the main consequences of global warming will be an increased burden of mosquito-borne diseases, many of which have an urban facet to their epidemiology and thus the global population exposed to these pathogens will steadily increase. Current health mitigation strategies for heat and pollution, for example, may, however, be detrimental for mosquito-borne diseases. Implementation of multi-sectoral strategies that can benefit many sectors (such as water, labor, and health) do exist or can be envisaged and would enable optimal use of the meagre resources available. Discussion among multi-sectoral stakeholders should be actively encouraged.}, }
@article {pmid34067050, year = {2021}, author = {Sorgho, R and Jungmann, M and Souares, A and Danquah, I and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Climate Change, Health Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Burkina Faso: A Qualitative Study on the Perceptions of National Policymakers.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {34067050}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Burkina Faso ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Humans ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) constitutes one of the greatest threats to human health, and requires political awareness for effective and efficient adaptation planning. This study identified the perceptions of climate change and health adaptation (CC&amp;H) among relevant stakeholders, decision-makers, and policymakers (SDPs) in Burkina Faso (BF) by determining their perceptions of CC, of related health risks and vulnerabilities, and of CC impacts on agriculture and food security. We carried out 35 semi-structured, qualitative in-depth interviews with SDPs, representing national governmental institutions, international organizations, and civil society organizations. The interviews were analyzed using content analysis. SDPs shared similar perceptions of CC and concurred with three ideas (1) CC is a real and lived experience in BF; (2) the population is aware of climatic changes in their environment; (3) CC is intertwined with the agricultural and economic development of the country. SDPs identified biodiversity loss, floods, droughts, and extreme heat as posing the highest risk to health. They elaborated five exposure pathways that are and will be affected by CC: water quality and quantity, heat stress, food supply and safety, vector borne diseases, and air quality. In conclusion, SDPs in Burkina Faso are highly aware of CC hazards, relevant health exposure pathways, and their corresponding health outcomes. Mental health and the interplay between social factors and complex health risks constitute perception gaps. SDPs perceived CC&amp;H risks and vulnerabilities align with current evidence.}, }
@article {pmid34066138, year = {2021}, author = {Skendžić, S and Zovko, M and Živković, IP and Lešić, V and Lemić, D}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Insect Pests.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {34066138}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {Climate change and global warming are of great concern to agriculture worldwide and are among the most discussed issues in today's society. Climate parameters such as increased temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and changing precipitation patterns have significant impacts on agricultural production and on agricultural insect pests. Changes in climate can affect insect pests in several ways. They can result in an expansion of their geographic distribution, increased survival during overwintering, increased number of generations, altered synchrony between plants and pests, altered interspecific interaction, increased risk of invasion by migratory pests, increased incidence of insect-transmitted plant diseases, and reduced effectiveness of biological control, especially natural enemies. As a result, there is a serious risk of crop economic losses, as well as a challenge to human food security. As a major driver of pest population dynamics, climate change will require adaptive management strategies to deal with the changing status of pests. Several priorities can be identified for future research on the effects of climatic changes on agricultural insect pests. These include modified integrated pest management tactics, monitoring climate and pest populations, and the use of modelling prediction tools.}, }
@article {pmid34065667, year = {2021}, author = {Cane, J}, title = {Global Warming, Advancing Bloom and Evidence for Pollinator Plasticity from Long-Term Bee Emergence Monitoring.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {34065667}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {Global warming is extending growing seasons in temperate zones, yielding earlier wildflower blooms. Short-term field experiments with non-social bees showed that adult emergence is responsive to nest substrate temperatures. Nonetheless, some posit that global warming will decouple bee flight and host bloom periods, leading to pollination shortfalls and bee declines. Resolving these competing scenarios requires evidence for bees' natural plasticity in their annual emergence schedules. This study reports direct observations spanning 12-24 years for annual variation in the earliest nesting or foraging activities by 1-4 populations of four native ground-nesting bees: Andrena fulva (Andrenidae), Halictus rubicundus (Halictidae), Habropoda laboriosa and Eucera (Peponapis) pruinosa (Apidae). Calendar dates of earliest annual bee activity ranged across 25 to 45 days, approximating reported multi-decadal ranges for published wildflower bloom dates. Within a given year, the bee H. rubicundus emerged in close synchrony at multiple local aggregations, explicable if meteorological factors cue emergence. Emergence dates were relatable to thermal cues, such as degree day accumulation, soil temperature at nesting depth, and the first pulse of warm spring air temperatures. Similar seasonal flexibilities in bee emergence and wildflower bloom schedules bodes well for bees and bloom to generally retain synchrony despite a warming climate. Future monitoring studies can benefit from several simple methodological improvements.}, }
@article {pmid34065368, year = {2021}, author = {Cortés, AJ and López-Hernández, F}, title = {Harnessing Crop Wild Diversity for Climate Change Adaptation.}, journal = {Genes}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {34065368}, issn = {2073-4425}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*genetics ; Machine Learning ; Plant Breeding/*methods ; *Polymorphism, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Warming and drought are reducing global crop production with a potential to substantially worsen global malnutrition. As with the green revolution in the last century, plant genetics may offer concrete opportunities to increase yield and crop adaptability. However, the rate at which the threat is happening requires powering new strategies in order to meet the global food demand. In this review, we highlight major recent 'big data' developments from both empirical and theoretical genomics that may speed up the identification, conservation, and breeding of exotic and elite crop varieties with the potential to feed humans. We first emphasize the major bottlenecks to capture and utilize novel sources of variation in abiotic stress (i.e., heat and drought) tolerance. We argue that adaptation of crop wild relatives to dry environments could be informative on how plant phenotypes may react to a drier climate because natural selection has already tested more options than humans ever will. Because isolated pockets of cryptic diversity may still persist in remote semi-arid regions, we encourage new habitat-based population-guided collections for genebanks. We continue discussing how to systematically study abiotic stress tolerance in these crop collections of wild and landraces using geo-referencing and extensive environmental data. By uncovering the genes that underlie the tolerance adaptive trait, natural variation has the potential to be introgressed into elite cultivars. However, unlocking adaptive genetic variation hidden in related wild species and early landraces remains a major challenge for complex traits that, as abiotic stress tolerance, are polygenic (i.e., regulated by many low-effect genes). Therefore, we finish prospecting modern analytical approaches that will serve to overcome this issue. Concretely, genomic prediction, machine learning, and multi-trait gene editing, all offer innovative alternatives to speed up more accurate pre- and breeding efforts toward the increase in crop adaptability and yield, while matching future global food demands in the face of increased heat and drought. In order for these 'big data' approaches to succeed, we advocate for a trans-disciplinary approach with open-source data and long-term funding. The recent developments and perspectives discussed throughout this review ultimately aim to contribute to increased crop adaptability and yield in the face of heat waves and drought events.}, }
@article {pmid34063305, year = {2021}, author = {Sirgedaitė-Šėžienė, V and Marčiulynas, A and Baliuckas, V}, title = {Effect of Extracts from Dominant Forest Floor Species of Clear-Cuts on the Regeneration and Initial Growth of Pinus sylvestris L. with Respect to Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {34063305}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {No 09.3.3 - LMT - K - 712//European Social Fund "Development of Competences of Scientists, other Researchers and Students through Practical Research Activities"/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change influences the ecological environment and affects the recruitment of plants, in addition to population dynamics, including Scots pine regeneration processes. Therefore, the impact of cover-dominant species extracts on the germination of pine seeds and morpho-physiological traits of seedling under different environmental conditions was evaluated. Increasing temperature reinforces the plant-donor allelochemical effect, reduces Scots pine seed germination, and inhibits seedling morpho-physiological parameters. Conditions unfavourable for the seed germination rate were observed in response to the effect of aqueous extracts of 2-year-old Vaccinium vitis-ideae and 1-year-old Calluna vulgaris under changing environmental conditions.&amp;nbsp;The lowest radicle length and hypocotyl growth were observed in response to the effect of 1-year-old C. vulgaris and 2-year-old Rumex acetosella under increasing temperature (+4 °C) conditions. The chlorophyll a + b concentration in control seedlings strongly decreased from 0.76 to 0.66 mg g[-1] (due to current environmental and&amp;nbsp;changing environmental conditions). These factors may reduce the resistance of Scots pine to the effects of dominant species and affect the migration of Scots pine habitats to more favourable environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid34062859, year = {2021}, author = {Iqbal, N and Manalil, S and Chauhan, BS and Adkins, S}, title = {Effect of Different Climate Change Variables on the Ecology and Management of Sesbania cannabina through Glyphosate.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {34062859}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {An elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and frequent droughts are two anticipated climate change scenarios in which certain invasive weeds may develop competitive advantages over crops and adversely impact productivity and herbicide efficacy. Hence, a study was conducted to explore the effect of different climatic scenarios on the growth and management of Sesbania cannabina (Retz.) Pers with glyphosate. The variables investigated were two CO2 concentrations (400 and 700 ppm), two soil moisture levels (100% and 50% of field capacity (FC)), and three glyphosate rates (0 (control), 517 (50% of recommended rate), and 1034 g ae ha[-1] (recommended rate)). CO2 concentrations and soil moisture levels had different effects on the growth and management of S. cannabina. Overall, 100% FC and elevated [CO2] of 700 ppm recorded the maximum plant height (38 cm), leaves per plant (20), growth index (60), chlorophyll content (SPAD value 37), and dry biomass (3 g) in comparison with ambient [CO2] of 400 ppm and 50% FC treatment. The recommended glyphosate application gave 100% weed biomass reduction; however, efficacy was reduced (63%) when applied at 50% of the recommended rate under elevated [CO2] of 700 ppm and 50% FC conditions.}, }
@article {pmid34061709, year = {2022}, author = {Tome, J and Richmond, HL and Rahman, M and Karmacharya, D and Schwind, JS}, title = {Climate change and health vulnerability in Nepal: A systematic review of the literature since 2010.}, journal = {Global public health}, volume = {17}, number = {7}, pages = {1406-1419}, doi = {10.1080/17441692.2021.1924824}, pmid = {34061709}, issn = {1744-1706}, mesh = {Aged ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Female ; *Floods ; Humans ; Male ; Nepal ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {The Nepali population is among those most vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. We conducted a systematic literature review to document the health effects of climate change in Nepal and identify knowledge gaps by examining vulnerability categories related to health. Three databases were searched for journal articles that addressed health and vulnerability related to climate change in Nepal from 2010 onwards. Of the 1063 articles identified, 37 were eligible for inclusion. The findings suggested the health of the population was affected mostly by food insecurity, floods, droughts, and reduced water levels. Studies revealed both morbidity and mortality increased due to climate change, with the most impacted populations being women, children, and the elderly. At greatest risk for impacts from climate change were those from poor and marginal populations, especially impoverished women. The public health sector, healthcare, and potable water sources were some of the least mentioned vulnerability subcategories, indicating more research is needed to better understand their adaptation capacities. We propose that identifying vulnerabilities and areas of limited research are critical steps in the prioritization of health policy and interventions for the most vulnerable populations in Nepal.}, }
@article {pmid34060175, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, J and Zou, HX and Bachelot, B and Dong, T and Zhu, Z and Liao, Y and Plenković-Moraj, A and Wu, Y}, title = {Predicting the responses of subalpine forest landscape dynamics to climate change on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {18}, pages = {4352-4366}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15727}, pmid = {34060175}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {5132202020000046//Jiuzhaigou Post-Disaster Restoration and Reconstruction Program/ ; 2020YFE0203200//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; //Rice University/ ; }, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Subalpine vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau is globally one of the most sensitive to climate change. However, the potential landscape-scale effects of climate change on subalpine forest dynamics remain largely unexplored. Here, we used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II) to simulate forest dynamics under future climate change in Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in the eastern subalpine region of the Tibetan Plateau. We examined changes in the composition, distribution and aboveground biomass of cold temperate coniferous forests, temperate coniferous forests, deciduous broad-leaved forests and redwood forest under four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the current climate) from 2016 to 2096. Our model predicts that by 2096, (i) cold temperate coniferous forests will expand and increase by 7.92%, 8.18%, 8.65% and 7.02% under current climate, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively; (ii) distribution of forests as a whole shows upward elevational range shift, especially under RCP8.5 scenario and (iii) total aboveground biomass slowly increases at first and then decreases to 12%-16% of current distribution under RCPs. These results show that climate change can be expected to significantly influence forest composition, distribution and aboveground biomass in the subalpine forests of eastern Tibetan Plateau. This study is the first to simulate forest dynamics at the landscape scale in subalpine areas of the Tibetan Plateau, which provides an important step in developing more effective strategies of forest management for expected climate change, not only in China but also around the world.}, }
@article {pmid34059175, year = {2021}, author = {Tong, SL and Olsen, J and Kinney, PL}, title = {Climate Change and Temperature-related Mortality: Implications for Health-related Climate Policy.}, journal = {Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {379-386}, doi = {10.3967/bes2021.050}, pmid = {34059175}, issn = {2214-0190}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Mortality ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid34058454, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, Y and Zhang, J and Pan, T and Ge, Q}, title = {Assessing the adaptability of maize phenology to climate change: The role of anthropogenic-management practices.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {293}, number = {}, pages = {112874}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112874}, pmid = {34058454}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Phenology has been regarded as an essential bio-indicator of climate change widely. Quantifying the crop phenological changes caused by climate change and anthropogenic-management practices can help formulate effective climate change adaptation strategies. In this study, the effects of climate change and anthropogenic-management practices on maize phenology (spring, summer, and intercropping maize) in China were distinguished based on historical meteorological and phenological data (1981-2010) of 114 stations using the first-order difference regression method. Our results show: (1) The vegetative growing period of spring and intercropping maize was extended, whereas that of summer maize was shortened. The reproductive growing periods of spring, summer, and intercropping maize were extended. (2) Isolated impacts of climate change shortened the vegetative growing period of spring maize, summer maize, and intercropping maize by 0.19, 1.06, and 3.12 d decade[-1], respectively, while the reproductive growing period was extended by 0.19, 0.74, and 3.47 d decade[-1], respectively. (3) The contribution of temperature to maize phenology was greater in the northwest inland maize zone and north spring maize zone than in other regions, whereas the contribution of sunshine hours was higher in Huang-Huai Plain intercropping maize zone and the southwest mountain hills maize zone. (4) The effects of anthropogenic-management practices on maize phenological stages such as sowing, emergence, and maturity were generally greater than that of climate change, which has delayed the phenological stages of summer and intercropping maize and extended the growing period of spring maize. The focus should be paid to the emergence, jointing, and milky stages to increase the water use efficiency in the northwest inland maize zone. The findings provide a scientific basis for improving the adaptability of agricultural systems in climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34056827, year = {2021}, author = {Hill, GM and Kawahara, AY and Daniels, JC and Bateman, CC and Scheffers, BR}, title = {Climate change effects on animal ecology: butterflies and moths as a case study.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {96}, number = {5}, pages = {2113-2126}, pmid = {34056827}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Butterflies ; Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; *Moths ; }, abstract = {Butterflies and moths (Lepidoptera) are one of the most studied, diverse, and widespread animal groups, making them an ideal model for climate change research. They are a particularly informative model for studying the effects of climate change on species ecology because they are ectotherms that thermoregulate with a suite of physiological, behavioural, and phenotypic traits. While some species have been negatively impacted by climatic disturbances, others have prospered, largely in accordance with their diversity in life-history traits. Here we take advantage of a large repertoire of studies on butterflies and moths to provide a review of the many ways in which climate change is impacting insects, animals, and ecosystems. By studying these climate-based impacts on ecological processes of Lepidoptera, we propose appropriate strategies for species conservation and habitat management broadly across animals.}, }
@article {pmid34056573, year = {2021}, author = {Kummu, M and Heino, M and Taka, M and Varis, O and Viviroli, D}, title = {Climate change risks pushing one-third of global food production outside the safe climatic space.}, journal = {One earth (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {720-729}, pmid = {34056573}, issn = {2590-3322}, abstract = {Food production on our planet is dominantly based on agricultural practices developed during stable Holocene climatic conditions. Although it is widely accepted that climate change perturbs these conditions, no systematic understanding exists on where and how the major risks for entering unprecedented conditions may occur. Here, we address this gap by introducing the concept of safe climatic space (SCS), which incorporates the decisive climatic factors of agricultural production: precipitation, temperature, and aridity. We show that a rapid and unhalted growth of greenhouse gas emissions (SSP5-8.5) could force 31% of the global food crop and 34% of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081-2100. The most vulnerable areas are South and Southeast Asia and Africa's Sudano-Sahelian Zone, which have low resilience to cope with these changes. Our results underpin the importance of committing to a low-emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction.}, }
@article {pmid34056061, year = {2021}, author = {Nyahunda, L and Chibvura, S and Tirivangasi, HM}, title = {Social Work Practice: Accounting for Double Injustices Experienced by Women Under the Confluence of Covid-19 Pandemic and Climate Change Impacts in Nyanga, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Journal of human rights and social work}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {213-224}, pmid = {34056061}, issn = {2365-1792}, abstract = {In this paper, the researchers argue that the repercussions of the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic are taking a toll on rural women, not as a new phenomenon, but as an amplifier for their historical calamities dovetailed by climate change. The declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic by the World Health Organisation ignited widespread pronouncements of national state of disasters in various countries around the globe including Zimbabwe. Subsequently, like other countries, Zimbabwe followed the precautionary measures outlined by the WHO and pronounced its national lockdown to curtail the transmission of the virus. This paper intends to demonstrate how convergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change impacts serves as a double injustice for rural women in Nyanga communities, Zimbabwe. The study was qualitative in nature guided by the descriptive research design. Twenty participants comprising rural women and social workers were selected using purposive and convenience sampling techniques. Data were collected using focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The Thematic Content Analysis was followed to analyse the data from which the findings were derived. This study established that the COVID-19 pandemic is enhancing the catastrophic implications created by climate change on rural women whose food security systems are shattered, livelihood strategies maimed, caregiving roles burgeoning, and access to healthcare systems compromised. This daunting double impact is aggravated by gender inequalities, social exclusion and patriarchal dominance. The centrality of social justice to social work connotes that the profession has a tendentious responsibility to stand in the gap and liberate women from the jaws of these double catastrophes (climate change and COVID-19).}, }
@article {pmid34052620, year = {2021}, author = {Mackay, CML and Schmitt, MT and Lutz, AE and Mendel, J}, title = {Recent developments in the social identity approach to the psychology of climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {95-101}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.04.009}, pmid = {34052620}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Emotions ; Humans ; Social Change ; *Social Identification ; }, abstract = {We review recent literature on the social psychology of climate change, focusing on the application of social identity theory and self-categorization theory. These two theories, together forming the social identity approach, point to ways in which collective identities influence responses to climate change. Recent research demonstrates that collective identities influence attitudes, beliefs and behavior relevant to climate change, and they do this through processes such as group norms and social influence, collective efficacy, and collective emotions. The SIA suggests that, in general, people are motivated to protect the identity and status of their ingroups. Indeed, recent studies find that groups who are of higher status, and thus have more to gain from protecting the status quo, tend to be less concerned about addressing climate change than lower status groups, who are more likely to be harmed by climate change. However, individuals from both high and low status groups will be more likely to work towards pro-environmental social change when they perceive current social systems that perpetuate climate change as illegitimate and when they can imagine cognitive alternatives to the status quo, where humans have a more sustainable relationship with nature.}, }
@article {pmid34052619, year = {2021}, author = {Douglas, BD and Brauer, M}, title = {Gamification to prevent climate change: a review of games and apps for sustainability.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {89-94}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.04.008}, pmid = {34052619}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Gamification ; Humans ; *Mobile Applications ; *Video Games ; }, abstract = {Gamification, the application of game design principles to a nongaming context, has been used to promote pro-environmental behaviors. Such principles have been implemented in board games, team competitions, electronic games, smartphone apps, and in apps that researchers developed primarily to collect data. We review the games and apps that have been evaluated in empirical research in the last 5 years and provide a list of apps and games that have yet to be tested. Gamification has been used for sustainability education, energy reduction, transportation, air quality, waste management, and water conservation. Although we do not know yet why certain games and apps are more effective than others, gamification appears to be a promising avenue for preventing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34049266, year = {2021}, author = {Guo, H and Zhao, Y and Damgaard, A and Wang, Q and Wang, H and Christensen, TH and Lu, W}, title = {Quantifying global warming potential of alternative biorefinery systems for producing fuels from Chinese food waste.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {130}, number = {}, pages = {38-47}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2021.05.004}, pmid = {34049266}, issn = {1879-2456}, mesh = {Biofuels ; China ; Food ; *Global Warming ; *Refuse Disposal ; }, abstract = {Biorefining of Chinese food waste (FW) into transport fuels was assessed in terms of amount of fuel produced and over all Global Warming Potential (GWP) for six different scenarios including biogas, biomethane, bioethanol and biodiesel in different combinations. The life-cycle perspective used included GWP aspects of material and energy use, emissions during biorefining and management of residues, as well as substitution of fossil fuels according to the energy content of biofuels. All of the six FW biorefineries revealed savings in GWP ranging from -19 to -138 kg CO2 eqv. per ton of wet FW. Compared to the reference scenario with only anaerobic digestion (S0), introducing biogas upgrading to biomethane (S1) improved the GWP by 37%; while producing bioethanol prior to anaerobic digestion (S2) decreased the savings in GWP. Introducing biodiesel prior to anaerobic digestion (S3) revealed around 60% improvement in GWP, while combining biodiesel and biomethane gave the largest improvement in GWP, 84% compared to the reference scenario, and the most fuels (around 2400 MJ in terms of 30 kg biodiesel and 35 kg biomethane per ton of wet FW). A sensitivity analysis revealed that the electricity production based on the biogas was an important parameter and appears in all refineries, while the results was less sensitive to the production of biodiesel and biomethane. The residue management contributed also to the GWP, but did not vary much among the biorefinery scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid34045474, year = {2021}, author = {Sun, J and Im, P and Bae, Y and Munk, J and Kuruganti, T and Fricke, B}, title = {Dataset of low global warming potential refrigerant refrigeration system for fault detection and diagnostics.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {144}, pmid = {34045474}, issn = {2052-4463}, abstract = {HVAC and refrigeration system fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) has attracted extensive studies for decades; however, FDD of supermarket refrigeration systems has not gained significant attention. Supermarkets consume around 50 kWh/ft[2] of electricity annually. The biggest consumer of energy in a supermarket is its refrigeration system, which accounts for 40%-60% of its total electricity usage and is equivalent to about 2%-3% of the total energy consumed by commercial buildings in the United States. Also, the supermarket refrigeration system is one of the biggest consumers of refrigerants. Reducing refrigerant usage or using environmentally friendly alternatives can result in significant climate benefits. A challenge is the lack of publicly available data sets to benchmark the system performance and record the faulted performance. This paper identifies common faults of supermarket refrigeration systems and conducts an experimental study to collect the faulted performance data and analyze these faults. This work provides a foundation for future research on the development of FDD methods and field automated FDD implementation.}, }
@article {pmid34038456, year = {2021}, author = {Gregersen, T and Doran, R and Böhm, G and Poortinga, W}, title = {Outcome expectancies moderate the association between worry about climate change and personal energy-saving behaviors.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {e0252105}, pmid = {34038456}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {This paper explores whether efficacy beliefs can alter the relationship between worry about climate change and personal energy-saving behaviors, controlling for climate change beliefs and socio-demographics. For this purpose, we used data from 23 countries that participated in the European Social Survey Round 8 (N = 44 387). Worry about climate change, personal efficacy, personal outcome expectancy, and collective outcome expectancy were each associated with personal energy-saving behaviors concerning either energy curtailment or energy efficiency. The results further show that outcome expectancies moderate the association between worry about climate change and both types of energy behaviors. Worry was more strongly related to energy curtailment behaviors among those with high levels of personal and collective outcome expectancy. A similar pattern was found for energy efficiency behaviors, which were more strongly predicted by worry about climate change when combined with high levels of collective outcome expectancy. These findings are relevant for climate change communication, especially informational campaigns aiming to lower overall household energy use.}, }
@article {pmid34037588, year = {2021}, author = {Passaretti, B}, title = {[Prevention for man, rehabilitation for the planet - a call to action for physicians. Two rules of individual prevention - eat less red meat and do more physical activity - should be enough to effectively counteract climate change].}, journal = {Giornale italiano di cardiologia (2006)}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {452-455}, doi = {10.1714/3612.35928}, pmid = {34037588}, issn = {1972-6481}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Exercise ; Humans ; Male ; *Physicians ; Planets ; *Red Meat ; }, }
@article {pmid34034529, year = {2021}, author = {Ewing, DA and Purse, BV and Cobbold, CA and White, SM}, title = {A novel approach for predicting risk of vector-borne disease establishment in marginal temperate environments under climate change: West Nile virus in the UK.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society, Interface}, volume = {18}, number = {178}, pages = {20210049}, pmid = {34034529}, issn = {1742-5662}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Europe ; Humans ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; *Vector Borne Diseases ; *West Nile Fever/epidemiology ; *West Nile virus ; *Zika Virus ; *Zika Virus Infection ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases (VBDs), such as dengue, Zika, West Nile virus (WNV) and tick-borne encephalitis, account for substantial human morbidity worldwide and have expanded their range into temperate regions in recent decades. Climate change has been proposed as a likely driver of past and future expansion, however, the complex ecology of host and vector populations and their interactions with each other, environmental variables and land-use changes makes understanding the likely impacts of climate change on VBDs challenging. We present an environmentally driven, stage-structured, host-vector mathematical modelling framework to address this challenge. We apply our framework to predict the risk of WNV outbreaks in current and future UK climates. WNV is a mosquito-borne arbovirus which has expanded its range in mainland Europe in recent years. We predict that, while risks will remain low in the coming two to three decades, the risk of WNV outbreaks in the UK will increase with projected temperature rises and outbreaks appear plausible in the latter half of this century. This risk will increase substantially if increased temperatures lead to increases in the length of the mosquito biting season or if European strains show higher replication at lower temperatures than North American strains.}, }
@article {pmid34034522, year = {2021}, author = {Feit, B and Blüthgen, N and Daouti, E and Straub, C and Traugott, M and Jonsson, M}, title = {Landscape complexity promotes resilience of biological pest control to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {288}, number = {1951}, pages = {20210547}, pmid = {34034522}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Pest Control, Biological ; }, abstract = {Increased climate variability as a result of anthropogenic climate change can threaten the functioning of ecosystem services. However, diverse responses to climate change among species (response diversity) can provide ecosystems with resilience to this growing threat. Measuring and managing response diversity and resilience to global change are key ecological challenges. Here, we develop a novel index of climate resilience of ecosystem services, exemplified by the thermal resilience of predator communities providing biological pest control. Field assays revealed substantial differences in the temperature-dependent activity of predator species and indices of thermal resilience varied among predator communities occupying different fields. Predator assemblages with higher thermal resilience provided more stable pest control in microcosms where the temperature was experimentally varied, confirming that the index of thermal resilience developed here is linked to predator function. Importantly, complex landscapes containing a high number of non-crop habitat patches were more likely to contain predator communities with high thermal resilience. Thus, the conservation and restoration of non-crop habitats in agricultural landscapes-practices known to strengthen natural pest suppression under current conditions-will also confer resilience in ecosystem service provisioning to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34033945, year = {2021}, author = {Wu, X and Niklas, KJ and Sun, S}, title = {Climate change affects detritus decomposition rates by modifying arthropod performance and species interactions.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {47}, number = {}, pages = {62-66}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2021.05.002}, pmid = {34033945}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Arthropods ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change can indirectly affect ecosystem functions including detritus decomposition by modifying physiological traits, feeding behavior, and species interactions (including consumptive and non-consumptive top-down cascading effects) of decomposing arthropods. It is known that the effect of climate change on decomposition can be negative, neutral, or positive, and that it is highly context-dependent, depending on detritus quality, species identity, species interactions, and ecosystem type. Thus, ongoing climate change will undoubtedly influence the effects of arthropods on decomposition rates. More comprehensive studies are urgently needed to elucidate the effect of climate change on arthropod-detritus decomposers, particularly in the context of the decomposition of animal droppings and carrion.}, }
@article {pmid34032370, year = {2021}, author = {Marchioro, CA and Krechemer, FS}, title = {Prevention is better than cure: Integrating habitat suitability and invasion threat to assess global biological invasion risk by insect pests under climate change.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {77}, number = {10}, pages = {4510-4520}, doi = {10.1002/ps.6486}, pmid = {34032370}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {408606/2018-5//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Coleoptera ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Introduced Species ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Invasive alien species cause substantial impacts on ecosystem, economy, and public health. Therefore, identifying areas at risk of invasion and establishment is essential for the development and implementation of preventive measures. In this study, we integrated information on species habitat suitability, location of airports and ports, and invasion threat maps to assess global invasion risk under climate change using the cucurbit beetle, Diabrotica speciosa (Germar, 1824), as a model organism.<br><br>RESULTS: Suitable and optimal habitats for D. speciosa were estimated in several regions beyond its native range and comprised all continents. A decrease in the extent of suitable and optimal habitats for D. speciosa was predicted in different climate change scenarios, resulting in a reduction in invasion risk in most regions. However, regions such as western Europe and isolated areas in southern Asia and Oceania were predicted to face an increase in invasion risk under climate change. Invasion pathways via airports and ports were identified in all continents.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our findings can be used in the development of phytosanitary measures against D. speciosa in high-risk areas. Furthermore, the approach used in this study provides a framework for estimating the global risk of invasion by insect pests and other terrestrial organisms in different climate change scenarios. This information can be used by policy makers to develop preventive measures against species with potential to invade and spread in regions beyond their native range. &#xa9; 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid34030379, year = {2021}, author = {Pino-Cortés, E and Díaz-Robles, LA and Cubillos, F and Cereceda-Balic, F and Santander, R and Fu, JS and Carrasco, S and Acosta, J}, title = {The black carbon dispersion in the Southern Hemisphere and its transport and fate to Antarctica, an Anthropocene evidence for climate change policies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {778}, number = {}, pages = {146242}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146242}, pmid = {34030379}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Black carbon (BC) has been measured in Antarctica's air, and its global warming effect can potentially speed up the ice melting in the most solid water reservoir of the planet. However, the primary responsible sources are not well evidenced in this region. The dispersion of black carbon emissions from the Southern Hemisphere was conducting using atmospheric chemical transport model and we compared the results with satellite registries from March 1st to April 30th in 2014. The emission inventory considered the anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions from global datasets. The largest and most populated cities in Southern Hemisphere showed the higher emission of BC. As a result, the average daily concentrations of atmospheric BC were around 4 ng/m[3] in most regions of Antarctica according to its pristine characteristics. We analyzed fifteen relevant sites in coastal zones of Antartica and some peaks registered by the satellite records were not replicated by model outputs and it was mainly associated with the lack of emissions. Finally, we made simulations in the same period without biomass burning emissions and we observed decreased concentrations of BC in the range of 20-50%. As a result, we show that the black carbon transportation from the continental land to the polar region took place in 17-24 days during the Austral summer and the biomass burning emissions were the primary source. Black Carbon deposition in Antarctica is not permanent, but the uncontrolled emissions from Southern Hemisphere can increase its transportation to the white continent and make its accumulation during the period when the weak polar vortex occurs.}, }
@article {pmid34030328, year = {2021}, author = {Andrade-Linares, DR and Zistl-Schlingmann, M and Foesel, B and Dannenmann, M and Schulz, S and Schloter, M}, title = {Short term effects of climate change and intensification of management on the abundance of microbes driving nitrogen turnover in montane grassland soils.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {780}, number = {}, pages = {146672}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146672}, pmid = {34030328}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Europe ; Germany ; Grassland ; *Nitrogen/analysis ; *Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Montane grasslands in Europe are exposed to increasing temperatures twice as fast as the global average. Changes in climatic conditions are possibly accompanied by an increase in land use intensity, caused by a prolongation of the vegetation period and the need to improve productivity. Therefore, the investigation of combined effects of climate change and land use intensity is needed to further implement agricultural management strategies. Here we present results from a study performed in the pre-alpine region of southern Germany, where intact plant-soil mesocosms from grasslands, were translocated along an altitudinal gradient, resulting in an increase in soil temperature (moderate treatment: +0.5 K; strong treatment: +1.9 K warming) during the experimental period. Additionally, we applied an extensive or intensive agricultural management (two vs. five times of mowing and slurry application) on the transplanted mesocosms. After an exposure of one year, we measured plant growth and soil properties and quantified abundances of soil microorganisms catalyzing key steps in the nitrogen (N) cycle. Our data indicate, significant interactions between climate change and management. For example, microbial biomass was significantly reduced (-47.7% and -49.8% for Cmic and Nmic respectively), which was further accompanied by lower abundances of N2-fixing bacteria (up to -89,3%), as well as ammonia oxidizing bacteria (-81.4%) under intensive management, whereas N-mineralizing bacteria increased in abundance (up to +139.8%) under extensive management. Surprisingly, the abundances of denitrifying bacteria as well as mean N2O emissions were not affected by the treatments. Overall, our data suggest pronounced shifts in the abundance of microbes driving the N cycle in soil as a result of combined climate change and land use intensification already after a short simulation period of one year.}, }
@article {pmid34030320, year = {2021}, author = {Oliveira, GC and Arruda, DM and Fernandes Filho, EI and Veloso, GV and Francelino, MR and Schaefer, CEGR}, title = {Soil predictors are crucial for modelling vegetation distribution and its responses to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {780}, number = {}, pages = {146680}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146680}, pmid = {34030320}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Bioclimatic envelope models have been extensively used to predict the vegetation dynamics in response to climate changes. However, they are prone to the uncertainties arising from General Circulation Models (GCMs), classification algorithms and predictors, with low-resolution results and little detail at the regional level. Novel research has focused on the improvement of these models through a combination of climate and soil predictors to enhance ecological consistency. In this framework, we aimed to apply a joint edaphoclimatic envelope to predict the current and future vegetation distribution in the semiarid region of Brazil, which encompasses several classes of vegetation in response to the significant environmental heterogeneity. We employed a variety of machine learning algorithms and GCMs under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), in 1 km resolution. The combination of climate and soil predictors resulted in higher detail at landscape-scale and better distinction of vegetations with overlapping climatic niches. In forecasts, soil predictors imposed a buffer effect on vegetation dynamics as they reduced shifts driven solely by climatic drift. Our results with the edaphoclimatic approach pointed to an expansion of the dry Caatinga vegetation, ranging from an average of 16% to 24% on RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The shift in environmental suitability from forest to open and dry vegetation implies a major loss to biodiversity, as well as compromising the provision of ecosystem services important for maintaining the economy and livelihoods of the world's largest semiarid population. Predicting the most susceptible regions to future climate change is the first step in developing strategies to mitigate impacts in these areas.}, }
@article {pmid34029138, year = {2021}, author = {Chang, AY and Barry, M and Harrington, RA}, title = {The Need to Expand the Framework of Environmental Determinants of Cardiovascular Health From Climate Change to Planetary Health: Trial by Wildfire.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {143}, number = {21}, pages = {2029-2031}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.120.051892}, pmid = {34029138}, issn = {1524-4539}, mesh = {Cardiovascular System/*physiopathology ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Humans ; Wildfires/*mortality ; }, }
@article {pmid34028791, year = {2021}, author = {Barbour, MA and Gibert, JP}, title = {Genetic and plastic rewiring of food webs under climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {8}, pages = {1814-1830}, pmid = {34028791}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Food Chain ; Plastics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering ecological and evolutionary processes across biological scales. These simultaneous effects of climate change pose a major challenge for predicting the future state of populations, communities and ecosystems. This challenge is further exacerbated by the current lack of integration of research focused on these different scales. We propose that integrating the fields of quantitative genetics and food web ecology will reveal new insights on how climate change may reorganize biodiversity across levels of organization. This is because quantitative genetics links the genotypes of individuals to population-level phenotypic variation due to genetic (G), environmental (E) and gene-by-environment (G × E) factors. Food web ecology, on the other hand, links population-level phenotypes to the structure and dynamics of communities and ecosystems. We synthesize data and theory across these fields and find evidence that genetic (G) and plastic (E and G × E) phenotypic variation within populations will change in magnitude under new climates in predictable ways. We then show how changes in these sources of phenotypic variation can rewire food webs by altering the number and strength of species interactions, with consequences for ecosystem resilience. We also find evidence suggesting there are predictable asymmetries in genetic and plastic trait variation across trophic levels, which set the pace for phenotypic change and food web responses to climate change. Advances in genomics now make it possible to partition G, E and G × E phenotypic variation in natural populations, allowing tests of the hypotheses we propose. By synthesizing advances in quantitative genetics and food web ecology, we provide testable predictions for how the structure and dynamics of biodiversity will respond to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34027006, year = {2021}, author = {Talukder, B and van Loon, GW and Hipel, KW and Chiotha, S and Orbinski, J}, title = {Health impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers.}, journal = {One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {100258}, pmid = {34027006}, issn = {2352-7714}, abstract = {The health of smallholder farmers is crucial for ensuring food and nutritional security for two billion people. However, their health is in jeopardy for several reasons including challenges from climate change impacts. Using a narrative literature review supported by field observations and informal interviews with key informants in India, Bangladesh and Malawi, this paper identifies and discusses the health impacts of climate change under four categories: (i) communicable diseases, (ii) non-communicable diseases, (iii) mental health, and (iv) occupational health, safety and other health issues. The health impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers will hamper the realization of many of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, and a series of recommendations are made to regional and country governments to address the increasing health impacts of accelerating climate change among smallholder farmers.}, }
@article {pmid34026003, year = {2021}, author = {Canning, AD and Waltham, NJ}, title = {Ecological impact assessment of climate change and habitat loss on wetland vertebrate assemblages of the Great Barrier Reef catchment and the influence of survey bias.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {5244-5254}, pmid = {34026003}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Wetlands are among the most vulnerable ecosystems, stressed by habitat loss and degradation from expanding and intensifying agricultural and urban areas. Climate change will exacerbate the impacts of habitat loss by altering temperature and rainfall patterns. Wetlands within Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchment are not different, stressed by extensive cropping, urban expansion, and alteration for grazing. Understanding how stressors affect wildlife is essential for the effective management of biodiversity values and minimizing unintended consequences when trading off the multiple values wetlands support. Impact assessment is difficult, often relying on an aggregation of ad hoc observations that are spatially biased toward easily accessible areas, rather than systematic and randomized surveys. Using a large aggregate database of ad hoc observations, this study aimed to examine the influence of urban proximity on machine-learning models predicting taxonomic richness and assemblage turnover, relative to other habitat, landscape, and climate variables, for vertebrates dwelling in the wetlands of the GBR catchment. The distance from the nearest city was, by substantial margins, the most influential factor in predicting the richness and assemblage turnover of all vertebrate groups, except fish. Richness and assemblage turnover was predicted to be greatest nearest the main urban centers. The extent of various wetland habitats was highly influential in predicting the richness of all groups, while climate (predominately the rainfall in the wettest quarter) was highly influential in predicting assemblage turnover for all groups. Bias of survey records toward urban centers strongly influenced our ability to model wetland-affiliated vertebrates and may obscure our understanding of how vertebrates respond to habitat loss and climate change. This reinforces the need for randomized and systematic surveys to supplement existing ad hoc surveys. We urge modelers in other jurisdictions to better portray the potential influence of survey biases when modeling species distributions.}, }
@article {pmid34025991, year = {2021}, author = {Reyne, M and McGowan, NE and Flanagan, J and Nolan, P and Aubry, A and Emmerson, M and Marnell, F and Reid, N}, title = {Will predicted positive effects of climate change be enough to reverse declines of the regionally Endangered Natterjack toad in Ireland?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {5049-5064}, pmid = {34025991}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The global amphibian crisis is driven by a range of stressors including disease, habitat loss, and environmental contamination. The role of climate change remains poorly studied and is likely to influence environmental suitability, ranges, reproduction, and phenology. This study aimed to characterize the bioclimatic-habitat niche space of the Natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita) throughout its European range and to assess the impact of climate on the toad's environmental suitability and breeding behavior in Ireland, where declines in recent decades have resulted in it being regionally Red-Listed as Endangered. To address these questions, we first identified which climate variables best predict the current bioclimatic niche, fecundity (number of eggs deposit), and phenology. We then used future climate projections for two time periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to predict how the species range, fecundity, and phenology would change. The European range of the species was found to be limited by winter temperatures while its bioclimatic niche varied markedly throughout its range. Species distribution models suggested projected climate change will increase environmental suitability for the species throughout its range, including Ireland, but most notably in Scandinavia and the Baltic. Fecundity in Ireland was greatest during the cool temperatures of spring and after wet winters associated with ephemeral breeding pool availability. Warm, dry summers in the preceding year influenced fecundity the following spring indicative of carryover effects. Initiation of spawning was driven by spring temperatures, not rainfall. Projections suggested future climate change may increase fecundity in Ireland while spawning may commence earlier throughout the 21st century especially under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5). Despite recent range contraction and population declines due to habitat deterioration, the Natterjack toad, if subject to a suitable species conservation strategy, has the potential to be a climate change winner, notwithstanding unpredictable habitat and land-use change, sea-level rise inducing coastal erosion, changes in invertebrate prey abundance, and disease.}, }
@article {pmid34025764, year = {2021}, author = {Smith, TB and Fuller, TL and Zhen, Y and Zaunbrecher, V and Thomassen, HA and Njabo, K and Anthony, NM and Gonder, MK and Buermann, W and Larison, B and Ruegg, K and Harrigan, RJ}, title = {Genomic vulnerability and socio-economic threats under climate change in an African rainforest bird.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {1239-1247}, pmid = {34025764}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Preserving biodiversity under rapidly changing climate conditions is challenging. One approach for estimating impacts and their magnitude is to model current relationships between genomic and environmental data and then to forecast those relationships under future climate scenarios. In this way, understanding future genomic and environmental relationships can help guide management decisions, such as where to establish new protected areas where populations might be buffered from high temperatures or major changes in rainfall. However, climate warming is only one of many anthropogenic threats one must consider in rapidly developing parts of the world. In Central Africa, deforestation, mining, and infrastructure development are accelerating population declines of rainforest species. Here we investigate multiple anthropogenic threats in a Central African rainforest songbird, the little greenbul (Andropadus virens). We examine current climate and genomic variation in order to explore the association between genome and environment under future climate conditions. Specifically, we estimate Genomic Vulnerability, defined as the mismatch between current and predicted future genomic variation based on genotype-environment relationships modeled across contemporary populations. We do so while considering other anthropogenic impacts. We find that coastal and central Cameroon populations will require the greatest shifts in adaptive genomic variation, because both climate and land use in these areas are predicted to change dramatically. In contrast, in the more northern forest-savanna ecotones, genomic shifts required to keep pace with climate will be more moderate, and other anthropogenic impacts are expected to be comparatively low in magnitude. While an analysis of diverse taxa will be necessary for making comprehensive conservation decisions, the species-specific results presented illustrate how evolutionary genomics and other anthropogenic threats may be mapped and used to inform mitigation efforts. To this end, we present an integrated conceptual model demonstrating how the approach for a single species can be expanded to many taxonomically diverse species.}, }
@article {pmid34024327, year = {2021}, author = {Hackley, DM}, title = {Climate Change and Oral Health.}, journal = {International dental journal}, volume = {71}, number = {3}, pages = {173-177}, pmid = {34024327}, issn = {1875-595X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Oral Health ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid34023610, year = {2021}, author = {Collados-Lara, AJ and Pardo-Igúzquiza, E and Pulido-Velazquez, D}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change - and its uncertainty - on snow cover areas by using cellular automata models and stochastic weather generators.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {788}, number = {}, pages = {147776}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147776}, pmid = {34023610}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change will modify the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources in the future. Snow availability in alpine systems plays an important role for water dependent ecosystems, water demand supply, tourism, and hydropower. The assessment of the impact of climate change (and its uncertainty) on snow is a key subject in determining suitable adaptation strategies in these systems. In this paper, we propose a new methodology for assessing the impact of climate change on snow cover areas (SCAs). We have developed the Monte Carlo method analysis to combine several approaches to generate multiple input series and propagate them within a previously calibrated SCA cellular automata model. This generates potential future local scenarios from regional climate models. These scenarios are used to generate multiple series by using a stochastic weather generator. The methodology also includes an approach to correct the outputs bias of the stochastic weather generators when it is needed. Finally, the historical and the corrected multiple future weather series are used to simulate the impact on the SCA by using a cellular automata model. It is a novel approach that allows us to quantify the impact and uncertainty of climate change on the SCA. The methodology has been applied to the Sierra Nevada (southern Spain), which is the most southern alpine mountain range in Europe. In the horizon 2071-2100, under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, we estimate mean reductions of SCA that will move from 42 to 66% from December to February. The reductions are higher for the rest of the year (from March to May reductions of between 47 and 95% and from September to November reductions of between 54 and 100%). These SCA changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of snow of around 400 m.}, }
@article {pmid34023599, year = {2021}, author = {Aliyari, F and Bailey, RT and Arabi, M}, title = {Appraising climate change impacts on future water resources and agricultural productivity in agro-urban river basins.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {788}, number = {}, pages = {147717}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147717}, pmid = {34023599}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change can have an adverse effect on agricultural productivity and water availability in semi-arid regions, as changes in surface water availability lead to groundwater depletion and resultant losses in crop yield. These inter-relationships necessitate an integrated management approach for surface water, groundwater, and crop yield as a holistic system. This study quantifies the future availability of surface water and groundwater and associated crop production in a large semi-arid agro-urban river basin in which agricultural irrigation is a leader consumer of water. The region of study is the South Platte River Basin (72,000 km[2]), Colorado, USA. The coupled SWAT-MODFLOW modeling code is used as the hydrologic simulator and forced with five different CMIP5 climate models downscaled by Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), each for two climate scenarios, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for 1980-2100. The hydrologic model accounts for surface runoff, soil lateral flow, groundwater flow, groundwater-surface water interactions, irrigation from surface water and groundwater, and crop yield on a per-field basis. In all climate models and emission scenarios, an increase of 3 to 5 °C in annual average temperature is projected. Whereas, variation in the projected precipitation depends on topography and distances from mountains. Based on the results of this study, the worst-case climate model in the basin is IPSL-CM5A-MR-8.5. Under this climate scenario, for a 1 °C increase in temperature and the 1.3% reduction in annual precipitation, the basin will experience an 8.5% decrease in stream discharge, 2-5% decline in groundwater storage, and 11% reduction in crop yield. These results indicate the significant effect of climate change on water and food resources of a large river basin, pointing to the need for immediate implementation of conservation practices.}, }
@article {pmid34022079, year = {2021}, author = {Hu, ZM and Zhang, QS and Zhang, J and Kass, JM and Mammola, S and Fresia, P and Draisma, SGA and Assis, J and Jueterbock, A and Yokota, M and Zhang, Z}, title = {Intraspecific genetic variation matters when predicting seagrass distribution under climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {15}, pages = {3840-3855}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15996}, pmid = {34022079}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Gene Pool ; Genetic Variation ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Seagrasses play a vital role in structuring coastal marine ecosystems, but their distributional range and genetic diversity have declined rapidly in recent decades. To improve conservation of seagrass species, it is important to predict how climate change may impact their ranges. Such predictions are typically made with correlative species distribution models (SDMs), which can estimate a species' potential distribution under present and future climatic scenarios given species' presence data and climatic predictor variables. However, these models are typically constructed with species-level data, and thus ignore intraspecific genetic variability, which can give rise to populations with adaptations to heterogeneous climatic conditions. Here, we explore the link between intraspecific adaptation and niche differentiation in Thalassia hemprichii, a seagrass broadly distributed in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean and a crucial provider of habitat for numerous marine species. By retrieving and re-analysing microsatellite data from previous studies, we delimited two distinct phylogeographical lineages within the nominal species and found an intermediate level of differentiation in their multidimensional environmental niches, suggesting the possibility for local adaptation. We then compared projections of the species' habitat suitability under climate change scenarios using species-level and lineage-level SDMs. In the Central Tropical Indo-Pacific region, models for both levels predicted considerable range contraction in the future, but the lineage-level models predicted more severe habitat loss. Importantly, the two modelling approaches predicted opposite patterns of habitat change in the Western Tropical Indo-Pacific region. Our results highlight the necessity of conserving distinct populations and genetic pools to avoid regional extinction due to climate change and have important implications for guiding future management of seagrasses.}, }
@article {pmid34018645, year = {2021}, author = {Vranken, S and Wernberg, T and Scheben, A and Severn-Ellis, AA and Batley, J and Bayer, PE and Edwards, D and Wheeler, D and Coleman, MA}, title = {Genotype-Environment mismatch of kelp forests under climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {15}, pages = {3730-3746}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15993}, pmid = {34018645}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Genotype ; *Kelp/genetics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly impacting ecosystems globally. Understanding adaptive genetic diversity and whether it will keep pace with projected climatic change is necessary to assess species' vulnerability and design efficient mitigation strategies such as assisted adaptation. Kelp forests are the foundations of temperate reefs globally but are declining in many regions due to climate stress. A lack of knowledge of kelp's adaptive genetic diversity hinders assessment of vulnerability under extant and future climates. Using 4245 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we characterized patterns of neutral and putative adaptive genetic diversity for the dominant kelp in the southern hemisphere (Ecklonia radiata) from ~1000 km of coastline off Western Australia. Strong population structure and isolation-by-distance was underpinned by significant signatures of selection related to temperature and light. Gradient forest analysis of temperature-linked SNPs under selection revealed a strong association with mean annual temperature range, suggesting adaptation to local thermal environments. Critically, modelling revealed that predicted climate-mediated temperature changes will probably result in high genomic vulnerability via a mismatch between current and future predicted genotype-environment relationships such that kelp forests off Western Australia will need to significantly adapt to keep pace with projected climate change. Proactive management techniques such as assisted adaptation to boost resilience may be required to secure the future of these kelp forests and the immense ecological and economic values they support.}, }
@article {pmid34016477, year = {2021}, author = {Beltrán, I and Herculano-Houzel, S and Sinervo, B and Whiting, MJ}, title = {Are ectotherm brains vulnerable to global warming?.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {36}, number = {8}, pages = {691-699}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2021.04.009}, pmid = {34016477}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Brain ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Elevated temperatures during development affect a wide range of traits in ectotherms. Less well understood is the impact of global warming on brain development, which has only rarely been studied experimentally. Here, we evaluate current progress in the field and search for common response patterns among ectotherm groups. Evidence suggests that temperature may have a positive effect on neuronal activity and growth in developing brains, but only up to a threshold, above which temperature is detrimental to neuron development. These responses appear to be taxon dependent but this assumption may be due to a paucity of data for some taxonomic groups. We provide a framework with which to advance this highly promising field in the future.}, }
@article {pmid34016363, year = {2021}, author = {Sampaio, F and Krechemer, FS and Marchioro, CA}, title = {The hotter the better? Climate change and voltinism of Spodoptera eridania estimated with different methods.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {98}, number = {}, pages = {102946}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2021.102946}, pmid = {34016363}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Animals ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Models, Theoretical ; *Reproduction ; Spodoptera/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Substantial increases in global temperature are projected for the coming decades due to climate change. Considering that temperature has a strong influence on insect voltinism (i.e., number of generations per year), climate change may affect the population growth of insects, with potential consequences for food production. The southern armyworm, Spodoptera eridania, is a multivoltine species native to the American tropics that causes severe damage to several crops. In this context, this study evaluated the impacts of climate change on the voltinism of S. eridania in southern Brazil. Current and future daily temperature data were combined with non-linear and degree-day models to estimate the voltinism of this pest. Under current climate conditions, the voltinism of S. eridania ranged from 2.9 to 9.2 generations, with fewer cohorts in colder regions and more in warmer ones. A higher number of generations was predicted for the future climate scenarios evaluated, reaching up to 12.1 annual generations in certain regions by 2070. Most of the variation in voltinism was explained by location (87.7%) and by the interaction between location and mathematical model (3.0%). The degree-day model estimated an increase in the number of generations in the entire study area, while the non-linear model predicted a decrease in voltinism in the warmer regions under future climate change scenarios. Given these differences between the predictions provided by degree-day and non-linear models, the selection of the best method to be used in climate change studies should be carried out carefully, considering how species respond to temperature. A considerable increase in the number of generations of S. eridania was projected for most of the study area under the climate change scenarios evaluated, suggesting a possible rise in pest incidence levels in the coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid34015294, year = {2021}, author = {Kouis, P and Psistaki, K and Giallouros, G and Michanikou, A and Kakkoura, MG and Stylianou, KS and Papatheodorou, SI and Paschalidou, A&#x39a;}, title = {Heat-related mortality under climate change and the impact of adaptation through air conditioning: A case study from Thessaloniki, Greece.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {199}, number = {}, pages = {111285}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.111285}, pmid = {34015294}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Air Conditioning ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Greece/epidemiology ; *Hot Temperature ; Mortality ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to increase heat-related mortality across the world. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) studies are used to quantify the impact of higher temperatures, taking into account the effect of population adaptation. Although air-conditioning (AC) is one of the main drivers of technological adaptation to heat, the health impacts associated with AC-induced air pollution have not been examined in detail. This study uses the city of Thessaloniki, Greece as a case study and aims to estimate the future heat-related mortality, the residential cooling demand, and the adaptation trade-off between averted heat-related and increased air pollution cardiorespiratory mortality. Using temperature and population projections under different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CIMP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs), a HIA model was developed for the future heat and air pollution cardiorespiratory mortality. Counterfactual scenarios of either black carbon (BC) or natural gas (NG) being the fuel source for electricity generation were included in the HIA. The results indicate that the heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality in Thessaloniki will increase and the excess of annual heat-related deaths in 2080-2099 will range from 2.4 (95% CI: 0.0-20.9) under SSP1-2.6 to 433.7 (95% CI: 66.9-1070) under SSP5-8.5. Population adaptation will attenuate the heat-related mortality, although the latter may be counterbalanced by the higher air pollution-related mortality due to increased AC, especially under moderate SSP scenarios and coal-fired power plants. Future studies examining the health effects of warmer temperatures need to account for the impact of both adaptation and increased penetration and use of AC.}, }
@article {pmid34015040, year = {2021}, author = {de Moraes, KF and Santos, MPD and Gonçalves, GSR and de Oliveira, GL and Gomes, LB and Lima, MGM}, title = {Correction: Climate change and bird extinctions in the Amazon.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {e0252260}, pmid = {34015040}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236103.].}, }
@article {pmid34013962, year = {2021}, author = {Sulser, TB and Beach, RH and Wiebe, KD and Dunston, S and Fukagawa, NK}, title = {Disability-adjusted life years due to chronic and hidden hunger under food system evolution with climate change and adaptation to 2050.}, journal = {The American journal of clinical nutrition}, volume = {114}, number = {2}, pages = {550-563}, pmid = {34013962}, issn = {1938-3207}, support = {205212/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; /WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics ; *Climate Change ; Disabled Persons ; Food Supply/*economics ; Global Health ; Humans ; Life Expectancy ; Malnutrition ; Micronutrients/deficiency ; Models, Theoretical ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change presents an increasing challenge for food-nutrition security. Nutrition metrics calculated from quantitative food system projections can help focus policy actions.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To estimate future chronic and hidden hunger disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)-due to protein-energy undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, respectively-using food systems projections to evaluate the potential impact of climate change and agricultural sector investment for adaptation.<br><br>METHODS: We use a novel combination of a chronic and hidden hunger DALY estimation procedure and food system projections from quantitative foresight modeling to assess DALYs under alternative agricultural sector scenarios to midcentury.<br><br>RESULTS: Total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs are projected to increase globally out to 2050-by over 30 million compared with 2010-even without climate change. Climate change increases total DALY change between 2010 and 2050 by nearly 10% compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show promise for offsetting these impacts. With investments, DALY incidence due to chronic and hidden hunger is projected to decrease globally in 2050 by 0.24 and 0.56 per 1000 capita, respectively. Total global DALYs will still rise because projected population growth will outpace the rate reduction, especially in Africa south of the Sahara. However, projections also show important regional reductions in total DALYs due to chronic (13.9 million in South Asia, 4.3 million in East Asia and the Pacific) and hidden hunger (7.5 million in East Asia and the Pacific) with investments.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Food system projections to 2050 show a decreasing DALY incidence from both chronic and hidden hunger. Population growth is projected to outpace these improvements and lead to increasing total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs globally, concentrated in Africa south of the Sahara. Climate change increases per-capita chronic and hidden hunger DALY incidence compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show the potential to offset the climate impact on DALYs.}, }
@article {pmid34011226, year = {2022}, author = {Colbert, CY and French, JC and Brateanu, A and Pacheco, SE and Khatri, SB and Sapatnekar, S and Vacharathit, V and Pien, LC and Prelosky-Leeson, A and LaRocque, R and Mark, B and Salas, RN}, title = {An Examination of the Intersection of Climate Change, the Physician Specialty Workforce, and Graduate Medical Education in the U.S.}, journal = {Teaching and learning in medicine}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {329-340}, doi = {10.1080/10401334.2021.1913417}, pmid = {34011226}, issn = {1532-8015}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Education, Medical, Graduate ; Humans ; *Internship and Residency ; *Medicine ; *Physicians ; United States ; Workforce ; }, abstract = {Issue: As U.S. healthcare systems plan for future physician workforce needs, the systemic impacts of climate change, a worldwide environmental and health crisis, have not been factored in. The current focus on increasing the number of trained physicians and optimizing efficiencies in healthcare delivery may be insufficient. Graduate medical education (GME) priorities and training should be considered in order to prepare a climate-educated physician workforce. Evidence: We used a holistic lens to explore the available literature regarding the intersection of future physician workforce needs, GME program priorities, and resident education within the larger context of climate change. Our interinstitutional, transdisciplinary team brought perspectives from their own fields, including climate science, climate and health research, and medical education to provide recommendations for building a climate-educated physician workforce. Implications: Acknowledging and preparing for the effects of climate change on the physician workforce will require identification of workforce gaps, changes to GME program priorities, and education of trainees on the health and societal impacts of climate change. Alignment of GME training with workforce considerations and climate action and adaptation initiatives will be critical in ensuring the U.S. has a climate-educated physician workforce capable of addressing health and healthcare system challenges. This article offers a number of recommendations for physician workforce priorities, resident education, and system-level changes to better prepare for the health and health system impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid34010514, year = {2021}, author = {Campbell, CS and Adams, CE and Bean, CW and Pilakouta, N and Parsons, KJ}, title = {Evolvability under climate change: Bone development and shape plasticity are heritable and correspond with performance in Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus).}, journal = {Evolution &amp; development}, volume = {23}, number = {4}, pages = {333-350}, doi = {10.1111/ede.12379}, pmid = {34010514}, issn = {1525-142X}, mesh = {Animals ; Bone Development ; *Climate Change ; Phenotype ; Temperature ; *Trout/genetics ; }, abstract = {Environmental conditions can impact the development of phenotypes and in turn the performance of individuals. Climate change, therefore, provides a pressing need to extend our understanding of how temperature will influence phenotypic variation. To address this, we assessed the impact of increased temperatures on ecologically significant phenotypic traits in Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus). We raised Arctic charr at 5°C and 9°C to simulate a predicted climate change scenario and examined temperature-induced variation in ossification, bone metabolism, skeletal morphology, and escape response. Fish reared at 9°C exhibited less cartilage and bone development at the same developmental stage, but also higher bone metabolism in localized regions. The higher temperature treatment also resulted in significant differences in craniofacial morphology, changes in the degree of variation, and fewer vertebrae. Both temperature regime and vertebral number affected escape response performance, with higher temperature leading to decreased latency. These findings demonstrate that climate change has the potential to impact development through multiple routes with the potential for plasticity and the release of cryptic genetic variation to have strong impacts on function through ecological performance and survival.}, }
@article {pmid34006886, year = {2021}, author = {Strauss, BH and Orton, PM and Bittermann, K and Buchanan, MK and Gilford, DM and Kopp, RE and Kulp, S and Massey, C and Moel, H and Vinogradov, S}, title = {Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {2720}, pmid = {34006886}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {80NSSC18K0698/ImNASA/Intramural NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {In 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B-$14.0B, 5th-95th percentiles) of Sandy's damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40-131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.}, }
@article {pmid34006840, year = {2021}, author = {Karatayev, VA and Vasconcelos, VV and Lafuite, AS and Levin, SA and Bauch, CT and Anand, M}, title = {A well-timed shift from local to global agreements accelerates climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {2908}, pmid = {34006840}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Recent attempts at cooperating on climate change mitigation highlight the limited efficacy of large-scale negotiations, when commitment to mitigation is costly and initially rare. Deepening existing voluntary mitigation pledges could require more stringent, legally-binding agreements that currently remain untenable at the global scale. Building-blocks approaches promise greater success by localizing agreements to regions or few-nation summits, but risk slowing mitigation adoption globally. Here, we show that a well-timed policy shift from local to global legally-binding agreements can dramatically accelerate mitigation compared to using only local, only global, or both agreement types simultaneously. This highlights the scale-specific roles of mitigation incentives: local agreements promote and sustain mitigation commitments in early-adopting groups, after which global agreements rapidly draw in late-adopting groups. We conclude that focusing negotiations on local legally-binding agreements and, as these become common, a renewed pursuit of stringent, legally-binding world-wide agreements could best overcome many current challenges facing climate mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid33997544, year = {2021}, author = {Wan, JN and Mbari, NJ and Wang, SW and Liu, B and Mwangi, BN and Rasoarahona, JRE and Xin, HP and Zhou, YD and Wang, QF}, title = {Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of six endemic baobab species in Madagascar.}, journal = {Plant diversity}, volume = {43}, number = {2}, pages = {117-124}, pmid = {33997544}, issn = {2468-2659}, abstract = {Madagascar, a globally renowned biodiversity hotspot characterized by high rates of endemism, is one of the few remaining refugia for many plants and animal species. However, global climate change has greatly affected the natural ecosystem and endemic species living in Madagascar, and will likely continue to influence species distribution in the future. Madagascar is home to six endemic baobab (Adansonia spp., Bombacoideae [Malvaceae]) species (Adansonia grandidieri, A. suarezensis, A. madagascariensis, A. perrieri, A. rubrostipa, A. za), which are remarkable and endangered plants. This study aimed to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for each baobab species endemic to Madagascar and determine the effect that climate change will have on suitable baobab habitat by the years 2050 and 2070. The distribution was modeled using MaxEnt based on locality information of 245 occurrence sites of six species from both online database and our own field work. A total of seven climatic variables were used for the modeling process. The present distribution of all six Madagascar's baobabs was largely influenced by temperature-related factors. Although both expansion and contraction of suitable habitat are predicted for all species, loss of original suitable habitat is predicted to be extensive. For the most widespread Madagascar baobab, A. za, more than 40% of its original habitat is predicted to be lost because of climate change. Based on these findings, we recommend that areas predicted to contract in response to climate change should be designated key protection regions for baobab conservation.}, }
@article {pmid33997371, year = {2021}, author = {Asfaw, A and Bantider, A and Simane, B and Hassen, A}, title = {Smallholder farmers' livelihood vulnerability to climate change-induced hazards: agroecology-based comparative analysis in Northcentral Ethiopia (Woleka Sub-basin).}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {e06761}, pmid = {33997371}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Due to its climate-sensitive agricultural system and low adaptive capacity of the subsistence farmers, Ethiopia is cited among the countries experiencing frequent drought and highly vulnerable to climate change associated impacts. Micro level vulnerability assessment, in the context of a changing climate, has a paramount significance in designing policies addressing climate change induced effects. Assessing vulnerability to climate change is important for defining the risks posed by the change and it provides a starting point for the determination of effective means of promoting remedial actions to minimize impacts by supporting coping strategies and facilitating adaptation options targeted at specific context.<br><br>METHODS: We employed cross-sectional survey research design has to examine the extent of livelihood vulnerability of 384 randomly selected smallholder farmers from three agroecologies which was supplemented by interviews. Livelihood vulnerability index, using integrated indicator approaches and principal component analysis, has been used. Chi-square test, F-test and t-test were used to examine association and mean differences among three agroecologies and between cropping types in terms of different attributes.<br><br>FINDINGS: Overall, smallholder farmers living in kolla agroecology were found to be the most vulnerable to climate change induced hazards followed by dega. In terms of type of cropping season, belg dominated areas were relatively more vulnerable than those residing in meher dominated areas. Different biophysical and socio-economic attributes contributed their own role both for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity differences among smallholder farmers farming in different agroecologies and different types of cropping seasons.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We recommend that interventions undertaken to lessen the impact of climate change should be targeted to the factors which contribute to high extent of sensitivity and for those which could enhance the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers. Specifically, we suggest that resilience-building adaptation interventions like expansion of small-scale irrigation, accessing of microfinance service, early warning and timely information, extension support, non-farm sources of income, training and skill development, expansion of infrastructure have to be promoted thereby increase the adaptive capacity of subsistence rainfed-dependent farmers to withstand the vagaries of the climate variability risk. Moreover, disparities in the same agroecology have to be addressed properly in livelihood vulnerability discourse.}, }
@article {pmid33996379, year = {2021}, author = {Carter, JM and Koman, PD and Cameron, L and Ferguson, A and Jacuzzo, P and Duvall, J}, title = {Assessing perceptions and priorities for health impacts of climate change within local Michigan health departments.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {595-609}, pmid = {33996379}, issn = {2190-6483}, support = {P30 ES017885/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change affects Michigan's public health in several primary ways, including increased incidences of vector-borne, waterborne, heat-related, and respiratory illness. Because local health departments (LHDs) play a central role in surveillance and preventative health services, they are among the first institutions to contend with the local impacts of climate change. To assess current perceptions among Michigan public health officials, an online survey was conducted in partnership with the Michigan Association for Local Public Health (MALPH). Most of the Michigan respondents (62%, n = 34) agreed that their jurisdictions have experienced climate change in the last 20 years, and 77% agreed that climate change will impact their jurisdictions in the coming 20 years. However, only 35% (n = 34) of Michigan officials agreed that climate change is a priority in their departments. About one quarter (25%, n = 34) of Michigan LHD respondents did not know about the level of expertise of either the state and federal agencies, responsible for assisting them with information and programs related to climate change and health. Uncertainty regarding the resources available to them may hinder LHDs from developing necessary preparedness, so meeting this need could bolster the public health response to climate change.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13412-021-00679-0.}, }
@article {pmid33995456, year = {2021}, author = {Chavardès, RD and Gennaretti, F and Grondin, P and Cavard, X and Morin, H and Bergeron, Y}, title = {Role of Mixed-Species Stands in Attenuating the Vulnerability of Boreal Forests to Climate Change and Insect Epidemics.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {658880}, pmid = {33995456}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {We investigated whether stand species mixture can attenuate the vulnerability of eastern Canada's boreal forests to climate change and insect epidemics. For this, we focused on two dominant boreal species, black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), in stands dominated by black spruce or trembling aspen ("pure stands"), and mixed stands (M) composed of both species within a 36 km[2] study area in the Nord-du-Québec region. For each species in each stand composition type, we tested climate-growth relations and assessed the impacts on growth by recorded insect epidemics of a black spruce defoliator, the spruce budworm (SBW) [Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)], and a trembling aspen defoliator, the forest tent caterpillar (FTC; Malacosoma disstria Hübn.). We implemented linear models in a Bayesian framework to explain baseline and long-term trends in tree growth for each species according to stand composition type and to differentiate the influences of climate and insect epidemics on tree growth. Overall, we found climate vulnerability was lower for black spruce in mixed stands than in pure stands, while trembling aspen was less sensitive to climate than spruce, and aspen did not present differences in responses based on stand mixture. We did not find any reduction of vulnerability for mixed stands to insect epidemics in the host species, but the non-host species in mixed stands could respond positively to epidemics affecting the host species, thus contributing to stabilize ecosystem-scale growth over time. Our findings partially support boreal forest management strategies including stand species mixture to foster forests that are resilient to climate change and insect epidemics.}, }
@article {pmid33995428, year = {2021}, author = {Matallana-Ramirez, LP and Whetten, RW and Sanchez, GM and Payn, KG}, title = {Breeding for Climate Change Resilience: A Case Study of Loblolly Pine (Pinus taeda L.) in North America.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {606908}, pmid = {33995428}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Earth's atmosphere is warming and the effects of climate change are becoming evident. A key observation is that both the average levels and the variability of temperature and precipitation are changing. Information and data from new technologies are developing in parallel to provide multidisciplinary opportunities to address and overcome the consequences of these changes in forest ecosystems. Changes in temperature and water availability impose multidimensional environmental constraints that trigger changes from the molecular to the forest stand level. These can represent a threat for the normal development of the tree from early seedling recruitment to adulthood both through direct mortality, and by increasing susceptibility to pathogens, insect attack, and fire damage. This review summarizes the strengths and shortcomings of previous work in the areas of genetic variation related to cold and drought stress in forest species with particular emphasis on loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.), the most-planted tree species in North America. We describe and discuss the implementation of management and breeding strategies to increase resilience and adaptation, and discuss how new technologies in the areas of engineering and genomics are shaping the future of phenotype-genotype studies. Lessons learned from the study of species important in intensively-managed forest ecosystems may also prove to be of value in helping less-intensively managed forest ecosystems adapt to climate change, thereby increasing the sustainability and resilience of forestlands for the future.}, }
@article {pmid33992934, year = {2021}, author = {Brick, C and Bosshard, A and Whitmarsh, L}, title = {Motivation and climate change: A review.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {82-88}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.04.001}, pmid = {33992934}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Environmentalism ; Humans ; *Motivation ; }, abstract = {This paper reviews motivations people experience about climate change and integrates recent findings into the BUCkET model of core social goals. We argue that environmentalism is not the main cause of thoughts or behaviors about climate change. Rather, the evolved social needs for Belongingness, Understanding, Control, self-Enhancement, and Trust are more practical intervention targets than the attempt to create environmentalist beliefs or identities. We used database searches to identify the key research areas on motivation and climate change and synthesized articles into the BUCkET model. This reveals some limiting assumptions of previous approaches and suggests the effectiveness of targeting existing motives rather than fostering new values or worldviews.}, }
@article {pmid33991862, year = {2021}, author = {Whitmarsh, L and Poortinga, W and Capstick, S}, title = {Behaviour change to address climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {76-81}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.04.002}, pmid = {33991862}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Habits ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Addressing climate change requires profound behaviour change, not only in consumer action, but also in action as members of communities and organisations, and as citizens who can influence policies. However, while many behavioural models exist to explain and predict mitigation and adaptation behaviours, we argue that their utility in establishing meaningful change is limited due to their being too reductive, individualistic, linear, deliberative and blind to environmental impact. This has led to a focus on suboptimal intervention strategies, particularly informational approaches. Addressing the climate crisis requires a focus on high-impact behaviours and high-emitting groups; interdisciplinary interventions that address the multiple drivers, barriers and contexts of behaviour; and timing to ensure interventions are targeted to moments of change when habits are weaker.}, }
@article {pmid33991206, year = {2021}, author = {Perry, EE and Xiao, X and Nettles, JM and Iretskaia, TA and Manning, RE}, title = {Park Visitors' Place Attachment and Climate Change-related Displacement: Potential Shifts in Who, Where, and When.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {68}, number = {1}, pages = {73-86}, pmid = {33991206}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Parks, Recreational ; *Recreation ; Seasons ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Visitation to parks will change with increasing climate changes. We examined how place attachment may influence different types of climate-induced displacement at both the park and park system level. Previous research suggests that visitors who have greater place attachment to parks within a system may be more likely to tolerate changed environmental conditions before they are displaced from the system entirely or change their choice of park or time of visit within it. Our study, based on the Vermont State Parks system (U.S.), used an on-site visitor questionnaire to examine potential system, spatial, and temporal displacements resulting from ranges of five regionally specific probable manifestations of climate change. As hypothesized, we found that those with lower place attachment were more likely to be displaced. Specifically, these visitors would be more likely to shift their visitation to more southern and lower elevation parks to avoid increased rainfall, earlier/later in the season to avoid higher day or night time temperatures, and out of the park system entirely with more days above 90 F or biting insects. Our approach to examining climate change, place attachment, and displacement has relevance for considering how these three areas impact tourism and visitor use management, as well as utility for managers of these destinations.}, }
@article {pmid33989146, year = {2021}, author = {Block, S and Levine, JM}, title = {How Dispersal Evolution and Local Adaptation Affect the Range Dynamics of Species Lagging Behind Climate Change.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {197}, number = {6}, pages = {E173-E187}, doi = {10.1086/714130}, pmid = {33989146}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {AbstractAs climate changes, species' ability to spatially track suitable climate depends on their spread velocity, a function of their population growth and dispersal capacity. When climate changes faster than species can spread, the climate experienced at species' expanding range edges may ameliorate as conditions become increasingly similar to those of the range core. When this boosts species' growth rates, their spread accelerates. Here, we use simulations of a spreading population with an annual life history to explore how climatic amelioration interacts with dispersal evolution and local adaptation to determine the dynamics of spread. We found that depending on the timing of dispersal evolution, spread velocity can show contrasting trajectories, sometimes transiently exceeding the climate velocity before decelerating. Climatic amelioration can also accelerate the spread of populations composed of genotypes best adapted to local climatic conditions, but the exact dynamics depends on the pattern of climatic adaptation. We conclude that failing to account for demographic variation across climatic gradients can lead to erroneous conclusions about species' capacity to spatially track suitable climate.}, }
@article {pmid33988844, year = {2021}, author = {Kumar, P and Sahu, NC and Kumar, S and Ansari, MA}, title = {Impact of climate change on cereal production: evidence from lower-middle-income countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {37}, pages = {51597-51611}, pmid = {33988844}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; *Economic Development ; Edible Grain ; Humans ; }, abstract = {This study empirically examines the impact of climate change on cereal production in selected lower-middle-income countries with a balanced panel dataset spanning 1971-2016. The study uses average annual temperature and rainfall to measure climate change. Besides this, CO2 emissions, cultivated land under cereal production, and rural population are used as the control variables. Second-generation unit root tests, i.e., CIPS and CADF, are used to test the stationarity of the variables. Feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) models are used to achieve the objective. Pedroni cointegration test confirms the presence of cointegration between cereal production and climate change variables. The findings show that a rise in the temperature reduces cereal production in lower-middle-income countries. In contrast, rainfall and CO2 emissions have a positive effect on cereal production. For robustness purpose, the Driscoll-Kraay standard regression and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models have also found similar results. Dumitrescu-Hurlin test has found the bidirectional causality of cereal production with temperature and CO2 emissions. Also, unidirectional causality is running from rainfall and rural population to cereal production. The adverse effects of temperature on cereal production are likely to pose severe implications for food security. The paper recommends that governments of the sample countries should research and develop heat-resistant varieties of cereal crops to cope with the adverse effects of temperature on cereal production and ensure food security.}, }
@article {pmid33988826, year = {2021}, author = {Patz, JA and Siri, JG}, title = {Toward Urban Planetary Health Solutions to Climate Change and Other Modern Crises.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {98}, number = {3}, pages = {311-314}, pmid = {33988826}, issn = {1468-2869}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Urban Health ; }, }
@article {pmid33987728, year = {2021}, author = {Chandio, AA and Gokmenoglu, KK and Ahmad, F}, title = {Addressing the long- and short-run effects of climate change on major food crops production in Turkey.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {37}, pages = {51657-51673}, pmid = {33987728}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Economic Development ; Humans ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {This study assessed the long-run (LR) and short-run (SR) impacts of climatic and non-climatic factors, i.e., CO2 emissions (CO2e), average level of temperature (ALT), average level of precipitation (ALP), area harvested of wheat and rice crops (AHW and (AHR), domestic credit (DCR), and agricultural labor (ALB) on wheat and rice production (WP and RP) in Turkey by using annual time series data ranging from 1980 to 2016 and by employing several econometric techniques. The autoregressive distributed lag-bounds (ARDL) approach and the Johansen and Juselius cointegration (JJC) test confirmed a valid long-term connection among underlying variables. The estimation results from the ARDL model reveal that climatic factors such as CO2 emissions and temperature adversely affected wheat production in the long run as well as in the short run, whereas precipitation positively improved wheat production in both periods. Further results indicate that non-climatic factors like area harvested of wheat and domestic credit positively and significantly enhanced wheat production in the long run and short run. Similarly, CO2 emissions also adversely affected rice production in both periods, while temperature and precipitation positively contributed towards rice production in both cases. In addition, area harvested of rice positively and significantly boosted rice production in the long run as well as in the short run, while domestic credit negatively influenced rice production in the long run but in the short run positively improved rice production. Additionally, the outcomes of the VECM Granger Causality for both rice and wheat production confirm that both climatic and non-climatic variables have a strong influence on the production of both crops. This study found that climate change has a deleterious influence on both wheat and rice production; therefore, the study suggests that temperature-resistant varieties of both crops should be developed and introduced by agricultural research institutions. In addition to this, up-to-date information is more needed related to climate change, and in the farming communities, it should be provided by agricultural extension workers.}, }
@article {pmid33986305, year = {2021}, author = {Huntley, J and Aubert, M and Oktaviana, AA and Lebe, R and Hakim, B and Burhan, B and Aksa, LM and Geria, IM and Ramli, M and Siagian, L and Brand, HEA and Brumm, A}, title = {The effects of climate change on the Pleistocene rock art of Sulawesi.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {9833}, pmid = {33986305}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The equatorial tropics house some of the earliest rock art yet known, and it is weathering at an alarming rate. Here we present evidence for haloclasty (salt crystallisation) from Pleistocene-aged rock art panels at 11 sites in the Maros-Pangkep limestone karsts of southern Sulawesi. We show how quickly rock art panels have degraded in recent decades, contending that climate-catalysed salt efflorescence is responsible for increasing exfoliation of the limestone cave surfaces that house the ~ 45 to 20-thousand-year-old paintings. These artworks are located in the world's most atmospherically dynamic region, the Australasian monsoon domain. The rising frequency and severity of El Niño-induced droughts from anthropogenic climate change (that is, higher ambient temperatures and more consecutive dry days), combined with seasonal moisture injected via monsoonal rains retained as standing water in the rice fields and aquaculture ponds of the region, increasingly provide ideal conditions for evaporation and haloclasty, accelerating rock art deterioration.}, }
@article {pmid33986228, year = {2021}, author = {Alessio, HM and Bassett, DR and Bopp, MJ and Parr, BB and Patch, GS and Rankin, JW and Rojas-Rueda, D and Roti, MW and Wojcik, JR}, title = {Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Physical Inactivity: Is Active Transportation Part of the Solution?.}, journal = {Medicine and science in sports and exercise}, volume = {53}, number = {6}, pages = {1170-1178}, pmid = {33986228}, issn = {1530-0315}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Bicycling ; Cardiorespiratory Fitness ; Exercise ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; *Sedentary Behavior ; *Transportation ; United States ; Walking ; }, abstract = {Active transportation is defined as self-propelled, human-powered transportation modes, such as walking and bicycling. In this article, we review the evidence that reliance on gasoline-powered transportation is contributing to global climate change, air pollution, and physical inactivity and that this is harmful to human health. Global climate change poses a major threat to human health and in the future could offset the health gains achieved over the last 100 yr. Based on hundreds of scientific studies, there is strong evidence that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to global climate change. Climate change is associated with increased severity of storms, flooding, rising sea levels, hotter climates, and drought, all leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Along with increases in atmospheric CO2, other pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and particulate matter (e.g., PM2.5) are released by combustion engines and industry, which can lead to pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases. Also, as car ownership and vehicle miles traveled have increased, the shift toward motorized transport has contributed to physical inactivity. Each of these global challenges has resulted in, or is projected to result in, millions of premature deaths each year. One of the ways that nations can mitigate the health consequences of climate change, air pollution, and chronic diseases is through the use of active transportation. Research indicates that populations that rely heavily on active transportation enjoy better health and increased longevity. In summary, active transportation has tremendous potential to simultaneously address three global public health challenges of the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid33985798, year = {2021}, author = {Patel, SH and Gallo, K and Becker, R and Borin, J and Loeb, S}, title = {Climate Change Impact of Virtual Urology Meetings.}, journal = {European urology}, volume = {80}, number = {1}, pages = {121-122}, doi = {10.1016/j.eururo.2021.04.033}, pmid = {33985798}, issn = {1873-7560}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Societies, Medical ; *Urology ; }, }
@article {pmid33984584, year = {2021}, author = {Abily, M and Vicenç, A and Gernjak, W and Rodríguez-Roda, I and Poch, M and Corominas, L}, title = {Climate change impact on EU rivers' dilution capacity and ecological status.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {199}, number = {}, pages = {117166}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2021.117166}, pmid = {33984584}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Europe ; *Rivers ; *Water Purification ; }, abstract = {Impacts from urban wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) to receiving riverine surface water bodies (SWBs) depend on the load of contaminants discharged, as well as on their dilution capacity. Yet, climate change impacts on such dilution capacity and ultimately on the SWBs ecological status remain unclear. Here, we assess SWBs dilution capacity across the European continent to identify most vulnerable areas using information from centralized European databases. SWBs´ future dilution factor values are estimated based on representative concentration pathway scenarios impacts on rivers flow, and likely changes in European SWBs´ ecological status foretold. Results show that dilution factor in Europe increases by 5.4% in average. Yet, climate change effects are found to lead to a consistent dilution factor decrease for 11% of the 40074 European SWBs receiving WWTP discharge for the early century. This share reaches 17% for the midcentury period. We estimate that up to 42% of the SWBs receiving WWTP discharges and currently reaching a good ecological status show a 0.7 probability to have their ecological status downgraded due to climate change. Sites more vulnerable are located in the Mediterranean countries. Our findings highlight that climate change mitigation is essential for maintaining good ecological status in European SWBs.}, }
@article {pmid33984550, year = {2021}, author = {Anderson, AB and Assis, J and Batista, MB and Serrão, EA and Guabiroba, HC and Delfino, SDT and Pinheiro, HT and Pimentel, CR and Gomes, LEO and Vilar, CC and Bernardino, AF and Horta, P and Ghisolfi, RD and Joyeux, JC}, title = {Global warming assessment suggests the endemic Brazilian kelp beds to be an endangered ecosystem.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {168}, number = {}, pages = {105307}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105307}, pmid = {33984550}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Brazil ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Global Warming ; *Kelp ; }, abstract = {Kelps are canopy-forming brown seaweed sustaining critical ecosystem services in coastal habitats, including shelter, nursery grounds, and providing food resources to a myriad of associated species. This study modeled the fundamental niche of Laminaria abyssalis along the Brazilian continental margin, an endemic species of the South Atlantic, to anticipate potential distributional range shifts under two contrasting scenarios of future environmental changes (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The model for fundamental niche predictions considering the "present scenario" has shown a wider potential area than the realized niche (i.e., the area where the species actually occurs) along the Brazilian coast. In both future scenarios, the models have shown niche erosion on the northern portion of the Brazilian coast and niche gains towards the south. In both scenarios, L. abyssalis populations tend to shift to deeper regions of the reef. The restricted range of occurrence (33,000 km[2]), intense anthropic activities along these beds (e.g., trawling fisheries, oil/gas mining, or removal for agricultural purposes) acting synergically with global warming, may drive this ecosystem to collapse faster than kelp species' ability to adapt. We propose to classify L. abyssalis as Endangered - (EN) under IUCN criteria, and highlight that long-term monitoring of kelp beds is an urgent need to develop effective conservation initiatives to protect such rare and invaluable ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid33981877, year = {2021}, author = {Nyang'au, JO and Mohamed, JH and Mango, N and Makate, C and Wangeci, AN}, title = {Smallholder farmers' perception of climate change and adoption of climate smart agriculture practices in Masaba South Sub-county, Kisii, Kenya.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {e06789}, pmid = {33981877}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Many countries experience the negative impacts of climate change especially in the decline of agricultural productivity leading to decreased national and household food security. This study assessed smallholder farmers' perception of climate variability and change and their adaptation strategies in Masaba South Sub-County, Kisii County, Kenya. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to collect data from 196 smallholder farmers. Additionally, focused group discussions and key informant interviews were used. The study revealed that most farmers perceived climate changes. 88.3% of the respondents noted a decrease in rainfall, 79.1% reported poor rainfall distribution, 88.3% perceived a late onset of rainfall while 76.6% perceived an increase in temperature. The farmers' perception mirrored the actual climatic data trends for the area obtained from the meteorological department. The major climate-smart agriculture practices adopted by farmers in the area included; diversification of crops, change of planting time and crop rotation/mixed cropping. The adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices significantly correlated with the household size, monthly income, access to credit and farmers' perception of climate change. The study recommends the incorporation and prioritization of climate change in the county and government development agenda as a means of enhancing the uptake of climate-smart agricultural practices.}, }
@article {pmid33981495, year = {2021}, author = {Bellquist, L and Saccomanno, V and Semmens, BX and Gleason, M and Wilson, J}, title = {The rise in climate change-induced federal fishery disasters in the United States.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e11186}, pmid = {33981495}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Commercial, recreational, and indigenous fisheries are critical to coastal economies and communities in the United States. For over three decades, the federal government has formally recognized the impact of fishery disasters via federal declarations. Despite these impacts, national syntheses of the dynamics, impacts, and causes of fishery disasters are lacking. We developed a nationwide Federal Fishery Disaster database using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) fishery disaster declarations and fishery revenue data. From 1989-2020, there were 71 federally approved fishery disasters (eleven are pending), which spanned every federal fisheries management region and coastal state in the country. To date, we estimate fishery disasters resulted in $2B (2019 USD) in Congressional allocations, and an additional, conservative estimate of $3.2B (2019 USD) in direct revenue loss. Despite this scale of impact, the disaster assistance process is largely ad hoc and lacks sufficient detail to properly assess allocation fairness and benefit. Nonetheless, fishery disasters increased in frequency over time, and the causes of disasters included a broad range of anthropogenic and environmental factors, with a recent shift to disasters now almost exclusively caused by extreme environmental events (e.g., marine heatwaves, hurricanes, and harmful algal blooms). Nationwide, 84.5% of fishery disasters were either partially or entirely attributed to extreme environmental events. As climate change drives higher rates of such extreme events, and as natural disaster assistance requests reach an all-time high, the federal system for fisheries disaster declaration and mitigation must evolve in order to effectively protect both fisheries sustainability and societal benefit.}, }
@article {pmid33977598, year = {2021}, author = {Lee, BR and Ibáñez, I}, title = {Improved phenological escape can help temperate tree seedlings maintain demographic performance under climate change conditions.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {16}, pages = {3883-3897}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15678}, pmid = {33977598}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Acer ; Climate Change ; Demography ; Plant Leaves ; Seasons ; Seedlings ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Phenological escape, a strategy that deciduous understory plants use to access direct light in spring by leafing out before the canopy closes, plays an important role in shaping the recruitment of temperate tree seedlings. Previous studies have investigated how climate change will alter these dynamics for herbaceous species, but there is a knowledge gap related to how woody species such as tree seedlings will be affected. Here, we modeled temperate tree seedling leaf-out phenology and canopy close phenology in response to environmental drivers and used climate change projections to forecast changes to the duration of spring phenological escape. We then used these predictions to estimate changes in annual carbon assimilation while accounting for reduced carbon assimilation rates associated with hotter and drier summers. Lastly, we applied these estimates to previously published models of seedling growth and survival to investigate the net effect on seedling demographic performance. Our models predict that temperate tree seedlings will experience improved phenological escape and, therefore, increased spring carbon assimilation under climate change conditions. However, increased summer respiration costs will offset the gains in spring under extreme climate change leading to a net loss in annual carbon assimilation and demographic performance. Furthermore, we found that annual carbon assimilation predictions depend strongly on the species of nearby canopy tree that seedlings were planted near, with all seedlings projected to assimilate less carbon (and therefore experience worse demographic performance) when planted near Quercus rubra canopy trees as opposed to Acer saccharum canopy trees. We conclude that changes to spring phenological escape will have important effects on how tree seedling recruitment is affected by climate change, with the magnitude of these effects dependent upon climate change severity and biological interactions with neighboring adults. Thus, future studies of temperate forest recruitment should account for phenological escape dynamics in their models.}, }
@article {pmid33976904, year = {2021}, author = {Ismail, Z and Go, YI}, title = {Fog-to-Water for Water Scarcity in Climate-Change Hazards Hotspots: Pilot Study in Southeast Asia.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {2000036}, pmid = {33976904}, issn = {2056-6646}, abstract = {Water is indispensable for human survival. Freshwater scarcity and unsustainable water are the main growing concerns in the world. It is estimated that about 800 million people worldwide do not have basic access to drinking water and about 2.2 billion people do not have access to safe water supply. Southeast Asia is most likely to experience water scarcity and water demand as a result of climate change. Climate change and the increasing water demand that eventually contribute to water scarcity are focused upon here. For Southeast Asia to adapt to the adverse consequences of global climate change and the growing concern of environmental water demand, fog water harvesting is considered as the most promising method to overcome water scarcity or drought. Fog water collection technique is a passive, low maintenance, and sustainable option that can supply fresh drinking water to communities where fog is a common phenomenon. Fog water harvesting system involves the use of mesh nets to collect water as fog passes through them. Only minimal cost is required for the operation and maintenance. In conclusion, fog water harvesting seems to be a promising method that can be implemented to overcome water scarcity and water demand in Southeast Asia.}, }
@article {pmid33976853, year = {2021}, author = {Sritharan, MS and Hemmings, FA and Moles, AT}, title = {Few changes in native Australian alpine plant morphology, despite substantial local climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {4854-4865}, pmid = {33976853}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Rapid evolution is likely to be an important mechanism allowing native species to adapt to changed environmental conditions. Many Northern Hemisphere species have undergone substantial recent changes in phenology and morphology. However, we have little information about how native species in the Southern Hemisphere are responding to climate change. We used herbarium specimens from 21 native alpine plant species in Kosciuszko National Park, Australia, to make over 1,500 measurements of plant size, leaf thickness, leaf mass per area, leaf shape, and leaf size across the last 126 years. Only two out of 21 species (9%) showed significant changes in any of the measured traits. The number of changes we observed was not significantly different to what we would expect by chance alone, based on the number of analyses performed. This lack of change is not attributable to methodology-an earlier study using the same methods found significant changes in 70% of species introduced to southeast Australia. Australia's native alpine plants do not appear to be adapting to changed conditions, and because of the low elevation of Australia's mountains, they do not have much scope for uphill migration. Thus, our findings suggest that Australia's native alpine plants are at even greater risk in the face of future climate change than was previously understood.}, }
@article {pmid33976526, year = {2021}, author = {Eliseev, DO and Naumova, YV}, title = {Simulation of Transit Transportation along the Northern Sea Route under Climate Change.}, journal = {Studies on Russian economic development}, volume = {32}, number = {2}, pages = {160-168}, pmid = {33976526}, issn = {1075-7007}, abstract = {The article examines the problems and development prospects for the international transit of goods along the NSR. The existing restrictions on increasing freight traffic up to 80 million tons per year declared in program documents are identified. An option for its enhancement based on the domestic fleet of Arctic cargo ships is proposed. The article summarizes the main shortcomings of earlier studies assessing the transit capabilities of the NSR. A model for assessing the optimal number of ships for the transportation of goods is proposed taking into account climatic, physical-geographical, technological, and temporal constraints and risks. Within the framework of the model, the cost of goods transportation was estimated for implementing two scenarios of transit traffic.}, }
@article {pmid33975220, year = {2021}, author = {González, CP and Edding, M and Tala, F and Torres, R and Manríquez, PH}, title = {Exposure time modulates the effects of climate change-related stressors on fertile sporophytes and early-life stage performance of a habitat-forming kelp species.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {286}, number = {}, pages = {117224}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2021.117224}, pmid = {33975220}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Kelp ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding the impact of increases in pCO2 (OA) and extreme changes in temperature on marine organisms is critical to predicting how they will cope with climate change. We evaluated the effects of OA as well as warming and cooling trend temperature on early reproductive traits of Lessonia trabeculata, a bio-engineer kelp species. Sori discs were maintained for an exposure time (ET) of 3 (T3) and 7 (T7) days to one of two contrasting pCO2 levels (450 and 1100 μatm). In addition, at each pCO2 level, they were subjected to three temperature treatments: 15 °C (control), 10 °C (cool) and 19 °C (warm). Subsequently, we compared sorus photosynthetic performance (Fv/Fm), the number of meiospores released (MR) and their germination rate (GR) after 48 h of settlement, with values obtained from sori discs not exposed (DNE) to the treatments. The Fv/Fm measured for DNE was lower than at T3 and T7 at 10 and 15 °C but not at 19 °C. Regardless of temperature, we found no significant differences between MR measured at T0 and T3. MR at T7 was significantly lower at 19 °C than at 10 and 15 °C. We found only a significant reduction in MR in response to elevated pCO2 at T3. The GR of meiospores released by DNE and then maintained for 48 h to 19 °C decreased significantly by ~33% when compared with those maintained for the same time at 10 and 15 °C. A similar, but more drastic reduction (~54%) in the GR was found in meiospores released by sori discs exposed for T3 and maintained for 48 h to 19 °C. We suggest that OA and warming trend will threaten the early establishment of this species with further consequences for the functioning of the associated ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid33974203, year = {2021}, author = {Hou, Y and Wang, Q}, title = {A bibliometric study about energy, environment, and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {26}, pages = {34187-34199}, pmid = {33974203}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Bibliometrics ; China ; *Climate Change ; Publications ; United Kingdom ; United States ; }, abstract = {Using the extended science citation index database (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) databases, this paper analyzed the characteristics of publications, research foundations, research hotspots, and the evolutionary tracks of studies in the field of energy, environment, and climate change from 1990 to 2019 using a bibliometric method. This method is useful because it involves the quantitative analysis of large amounts of literature, using mathematical and statistical method. The results showed that the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), and China were the countries with the most published papers in the field. The US plays a key role in the cooperation between international institutions. An assessment conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) created the standard scientific reference for the research on climate change and its consequences. From 2006 to 2016, a large number of co-cited papers laid a solid foundation for research in the field. During this period, the research focused on the impact of climate change on the ecological environment, began to propose different countermeasures, and formed a set of mature research methods. From 2017 to 2019, there was an acceleration in the growth rate of the number of published articles. Strategies to address climate change, including renewable energy and energy transition, were the focus during this phase. Future studies are expected to focus on climate change mitigation strategies and energy policies. The findings provide a reference for researchers and can help policy makers balance economic development with environmental protection.}, }
@article {pmid33974125, year = {2021}, author = {Du, J and He, Z and Chen, L and Lin, P and Zhu, X and Tian, Q}, title = {Impact of climate change on alpine plant community in Qilian Mountains of China.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {65}, number = {11}, pages = {1849-1858}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-021-02141-w}, pmid = {33974125}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {Y751E81001//the Foundation for Excellent Youth Scholars of "Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources", Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plants ; }, abstract = {There is growing evidence that mountains are experiencing some of the highest rates of climate warming, but assessment of the ecological impacts of climate change is often limited due to a lack of long-term monitoring data for comparative study in many ecosystems. In this study, we present an empirical work for assessing ecological responses with botanical legacy data in the Qilian Mountains of China. Plot-scale and transect-wide survey was conducted for alpine shrub communities along an elevational gradient 20 years ago. Recently, we resampled the permanent plots to investigate how the community changes may be linked to climatic variability. We found no significant temporal shifts in species richness; but the community structure underwent substantial changes, as indicated by visible shifts in the relative density of dominant shrub species and the frequency of occurrence of understory herbaceous species. This reshuffling of plant community composition reflected a series of complex responses to climate change. Specifically, wet-demanding species have become more frequent due to the recently enhanced precipitation, while the replacement of some low-statured plants with different requirements for light was indirectly regulated by climate warming via reshaping the altitudinal patterns of dominant shrubs. Climate-mediated shifts in shrub species distribution altered the expected evolutional trajectory of alpine community, which increased the complexity and nonlinearity of the responses of the communities at different altitudes to climatic variability. Our results suggested that in-depth knowledge of indirect effects can facilitate to lessen the uncertainty in predicting future community dynamics in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid33972839, year = {2021}, author = {Yan, C and Tian, H and Wan, X and He, J and Ren, G and Büntgen, U and Stenseth, NC and Zhang, Z}, title = {Climate change affected the spatio-temporal occurrence of disasters in China over the past five centuries.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {200731}, pmid = {33972839}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Climate change may contribute to the spatio-temporal occurrence of disasters. Long-term studies of either homogeneous or heterogeneous responses of historical disasters to climate change are, however, limited by the quality and quantity of the available proxy data. Here we reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of five types of disasters in China during the period AD 1368-1911. Our analyses of these time series reveal that warmer temperatures decreased the occurrence of disasters in the monsoon-affected parts of central-east China, but it increased the frequency and intensity of disasters along the boundary of arid and humid conditions in parts of southwest and northeast China, probably driven by the interplay among monsoon, westerlies, polar vortex and variation of temperature. Moreover, we show that drought and flood events had cascading effects on the occurrences of locust outbreaks, famine and human epidemics. Our findings suggest that climate can contribute to the spatio-temporal occurrence of disasters, and therefore may contribute to an improvement of China's regional to national risk management of future climate and environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid33972120, year = {2021}, author = {Youngentob, KN and Lindenmayer, DB and Marsh, KJ and Krockenberger, AK and Foley, WJ}, title = {Food intake: an overlooked driver of climate change casualties?.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {36}, number = {8}, pages = {676-678}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2021.04.003}, pmid = {33972120}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate Change ; Eating ; *Hot Temperature ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Reduced voluntary food intake is a common response of endotherms to warmer temperatures. However, the implications of this are rarely considered for wild animals exposed to higher temperatures caused by climate change. We provide a conceptual model to demonstrate the potential consequences of elevated temperatures on food intake and survival.}, }
@article {pmid33971581, year = {2021}, author = {van der Walt, KA and Porri, F and Potts, WM and Duncan, MI and James, NC}, title = {Thermal tolerance, safety margins and vulnerability of coastal species: Projected impact of climate change induced cold water variability in a temperate African region.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {169}, number = {}, pages = {105346}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105346}, pmid = {33971581}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; South Africa ; Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic induced climate change is predicted to increase the thermal variability in coastal waters, which can have strong physiological effects on individuals and populations of marine ectotherms. The magnitude and direction of these thermal effects varies depending on species, life stage, biogeography, habitat and season. This study aimed to compare the thermal tolerance of a range of juvenile fish and adult macro-invertebrates from intertidal and estuarine habitats in a warm-temperate, thermally variable region on the south-east coast of South Africa. Seasonal variability in thermal tolerance was compared between species, taxonomic groups, biogeographical distribution and habitat affinity and related to existing and projected water temperature data to gauge the local vulnerability of each species. Critical thermal maximum (CTmax), critical thermal minimum (CTmin), thermal breadths and scopes, and the thermal safety margins of each species were quantified. The greatest differences in thermal tolerance patterns were based on taxonomy, with macro-invertebrates having broader thermal tolerance compared to fish, with the exception of the Cape sea urchin, in both summer and winter. Relatively narrow lower breadths in tolerance and safety margin values for transient juvenile sub-tropical and temperate fish species from the intertidal rocky low-shore habitat were observed in both summer and winter. This indicates that these fish species and the Cape sea urchin may be more vulnerable to projected increases in cold temperature (upwelling in summer) than warm temperature variability in this warm-temperate region if they are unable to seek thermal habitat refuge.}, }
@article {pmid33971021, year = {2022}, author = {Dayrit, JF and Sugiharto, A and Coates, SJ and Lucero-Prisno, DE and Davis, MDD and Andersen, LK}, title = {Climate change, human migration, and skin disease: is there a link?.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {61}, number = {2}, pages = {127-138}, pmid = {33971021}, issn = {1365-4632}, support = {D43 TW009343/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; /CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; //University of California Global Health Institute/ ; D43TW009343//Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases ; Human Migration ; Humans ; *Skin Diseases ; *Transients and Migrants ; }, abstract = {Climate change, exemplified by higher average global temperatures resulting in more frequent extreme weather events, has the potential to significantly impact human migration patterns and health. The consequences of environmental catastrophes further destabilize regions with pre-existing states of conflict due to social, political, and/or economic unrest. Migrants may carry diseases from their place of origin to their destinations and once there may be susceptible to diseases in which they had not been previously exposed to. Skin diseases are among the most commonly observed health conditions observed in migrant populations. To improve awareness among dermatologists of the burden of skin diseases among migrants, the group searched the English language scientific literature to identify articles linking climate change, migration, and skin disease. Skin diseases associated with human migration fall into three major categories: (i) communicable diseases, (ii) noncommunicable diseases, and (iii) environmentally mediated diseases. Adopting comprehensive global strategies to improve the health of migrants requires urgent attention.}, }
@article {pmid33969880, year = {2021}, author = {Chen, J and Liu, Y and Zhou, W and Zhang, J and Pan, T}, title = {Effects of climate change and crop management on changes in rice phenology in China from 1981 to 2010.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {101}, number = {15}, pages = {6311-6319}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.11300}, pmid = {33969880}, issn = {1097-0010}, support = {QYZDB-SSW-DQC005//Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; Y202016//Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 2017RC101//Program for "Kezhen" Excellent Talents in Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 2018YFA0606102//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Crop Production/trends ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Crop phenology change is co-determined by climate change and adaptation strategies, such as crop management, but their combined and isolated impacts on rice phenology are still unclear. Quantifying the impacts and identifying the main contributors are critical to food security under climate change. Thus we distinguished and quantified the relative contribution of climate change and crop management to rice (Oryza sativa L.) phenological changes in China from 1981 to 2010, using a first-difference multivariate regression method.<br><br>RESULTS: Rice phenology has changed over the past 30&#x2009;years in China. The mean length of the phenological stage from emergence to transplanting was shortened, whereas the mean length of the stage from transplanting to heading, from heading to maturity, was prolonged. The relative contribution of crop management was greater than that of climate change for single and late rice, which took up over 90% of the total change in certain phenology stages. Among the climatic factors, temperature was the dominant contributor, which accounted for more than 50% of the change in rice phenology. The stage from transplanting to heading of early rice and late rice had strongly negative sensitivities to increasing temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Crop management has offset the adverse effects of climate change on single and early rice phenology in China over the past 30&#x2009;years to some extent, while further adaptation measures such as adjusting sowing date, shifting rice varieties, applying nitrogen fertilizer and irrigation should be applied to late rice in southern China, especially in a warmer future. &#xa9; 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid33968109, year = {2021}, author = {Tang, X and Yuan, Y and Li, X and Zhang, J}, title = {Maximum Entropy Modeling to Predict the Impact of Climate Change on Pine Wilt Disease in China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {652500}, pmid = {33968109}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Pine wilt disease is a devastating forest disease caused by the pinewood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which has been listed as the object of quarantine in China. Climate change influences species and may exacerbate the risk of forest diseases, such as the pine wilt disease. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used in this study to identify the current and potential distribution and habitat suitability of three pine species and B. xylophilus in China. Further, the potential distribution was modeled using the current (1970-2000) and the projected (2050 and 2070) climate data based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), and fairly robust prediction results were obtained. Our model identified that the area south of the Yangtze River in China was the most severely affected place by pine wilt disease, and the eastern foothills of the Tibetan Plateau acted as a geographical barrier to pest distribution. Bioclimatic variables related to temperature influenced pine trees' distribution, while those related to precipitation affected B. xylophilus's distribution. In the future, the suitable area of B. xylophilus will continue to increase; the shifts in the center of gravity of the suitable habitats of the three pine species and B. xylophilus will be different under climate change. The area ideal for pine trees will migrate slightly northward under RCP 8.5. The pine species will continue to face B. xylophilus threat in 2050 and 2070 under the two distinct climate change scenarios. Therefore, we should plan appropriate measures to prevent its expansion. Predicting the distribution of pine species and the impact of climate change on forest diseases is critical for controlling the pests according to local conditions. Thus, the MaxEnt model proposed in this study can be potentially used to forecast the species distribution and disease risks and provide guidance for the timely prevention and management of B. xylophilus.}, }
@article {pmid33968094, year = {2021}, author = {Ausseil, AE and Law, RM and Parker, AK and Teixeira, EI and Sood, A}, title = {Projected Wine Grape Cultivar Shifts Due to Climate Change in New Zealand.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {618039}, pmid = {33968094}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change has already been affecting the regional suitability of grapevines with significant advances in phenology being observed globally in the last few decades. This has significant implications for New Zealand, where the wine industry represents a major share of the horticultural industry revenue. We modeled key crop phenological stages to better understand temporal and spatial shifts in three important regions of New Zealand (Marlborough, Hawke's Bay, Central Otago) for three dominant cultivars (Merlot, Pinot noir, and Sauvignon blanc) and one potential new and later ripening cultivar (Grenache). Simulations show an overall advance in flowering, véraison, and sugar ripeness by mid-century with more pronounced advance by the end of the century. Results show the magnitude of changes depends on the combination of greenhouse gas emission pathway, grape cultivar, and region. By mid-century, in the Marlborough region for instance, the four cultivars would flower 3 to 7 days earlier and reach sugar ripeness 7 to 15 days earlier depending on the greenhouse gas emission pathway. For growers to maintain the same timing of key phenological stages would require shifting planting of cultivars to more Southern parts of the country or implement adaptation strategies. Results also show the compression of time between flowering and véraison for all three dominant cultivars is due to a proportionally greater advance in véraison, particularly for Merlot in the Hawke's Bay and Pinot noir in Central Otago. Cross-regional analysis also raises the likelihood of the different regional cultivars ripening within a smaller window of time, complicating harvesting schedules across the country. However, considering New Zealand primarily accommodates cool climate viticulture cultivars, our results suggest that late ripening cultivars or extended ripening window in cooler regions may be advantageous in the face of climate change. These insights can inform New Zealand winegrowers with climate change adaptation options for their cultivar choices.}, }
@article {pmid33964233, year = {2021}, author = {Drummond, A and Hall, LC and Palmer, MA and Hughes, J and Sauer, JD}, title = {Cultural tightness does not predict action on the collective threat of climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {e251-e252}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00055-3}, pmid = {33964233}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, }
@article {pmid33963332, year = {2021}, author = {Witze, A}, title = {NASA reboots its role in fighting climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {593}, number = {7859}, pages = {324-325}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-01230-5}, pmid = {33963332}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Budgets ; Earth Sciences/economics/*organization &amp; administration/*trends ; Environmental Science/economics/*trends ; Global Warming/economics/*prevention &amp; control ; Ice Cover/chemistry ; Politics ; Rain ; Research/economics/*organization &amp; administration/trends ; Spacecraft ; United States ; United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration/economics/*organization &amp; administration ; Water Movements ; Water Resources/supply &amp; distribution ; }, }
@article {pmid33963266, year = {2021}, author = {Bhowmick, M and Mishra, SK and Kravitz, B and Sahany, S and Salunke, P}, title = {Response of the Indian summer monsoon to global warming, solar geoengineering and its termination.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {9791}, pmid = {33963266}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The response of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) to global warming, solar geoengineering and its termination is examined using the multi-model mean of seven global climate model simulations from G2 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. Under the global warming scenario, land-ocean temperature contrasts and low-level monsoon circulation progressively strengthen accompanied by enhanced precipitation over the Indian subcontinent. Notably, in the solar geoengineered scenario, marginal surface cooling is projected over the majority of the ISM region, and there is strengthening of both upper and lower level circulation. However, preferential precipitation near Western Ghats leads to dry bias over majority of Indian land. Upon the termination of the geoengineering, the climatic conditions-temperature, precipitation, winds and moisture would abruptly change to what it would have been under the global warming scenario. Thus, this may be important to note that such changes may need attention for the future mitigation and adaptation purposes if solar geoengineering is required to implement in future.}, }
@article {pmid33961824, year = {2021}, author = {Harper, SL and Cunsolo, A and Babujee, A and Coggins, S and De Jongh, E and Rusnak, T and Wright, CJ and Domínguez Aguilar, M}, title = {Trends and gaps in climate change and health research in North America.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {199}, number = {}, pages = {111205}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.111205}, pmid = {33961824}, issn = {1096-0953}, support = {//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Mexico ; North America ; }, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (2014) assessed the state of climate change and health knowledge, globally through the Human Health: Impacts, Adaptation, and Co-Benefits Chapter and regionally through chapters, such as the North America Chapter. With IPCC's 6th Assessment Report scheduled to be released in 2021-22, we asked: how has climate change and health research in North America advanced since the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report in 2014? Specifically, we systematically identified and examined trends in the extent, range, and nature of climate-health research conducted in North America. We used a scoping review methodology to systematically identify literature and map publication trends. A search string was used to search five academic databases. Two independent reviewers first screened titles and abstracts, and then the full texts of articles for relevance. Research articles and reviews using systematic methods published since 2013 were eligible for inclusion, and no language restrictions were applied. To be included, articles had to measure and link climatic variables or hazards to health outcomes in North America. Relevant articles were analysed using descriptive statistics to explore publication trends. The number of climate-health articles has significantly increased since the last IPCC Assessment Report. Published research about climate change impacts, heat-related mortality and morbidity, and respiratory illness taking place in urban centres and in the USA continue to dominate the North American climate-health literature, reflected by the high proportion of articles published. Important research gaps on previously neglected climate-sensitive health outcomes, however, are beginning to be filled, including climate change impacts on mental health, nutrition, and foodborne disease. We also observed progress in research that included future projections of climate-health risks; however, projection research is still relatively nascent and under-studied for many climate-sensitive health outcomes in North America, and would benefit from considering social and demographic variables in models. Important research disparities in geographical coverage were noted, including research gaps in Canada and Mexico, and in rural and remote regions. Overall, these publication trends suggest an improved understanding of exposure-response relationships and future projections of climate-health risks for many climate-sensitive health outcomes in North America, which is promising and provides an evidence-base to inform the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. Despite these advancements and considering the urgent policy and practice implications, more research is needed to deepen our understanding of climate-sensitive health outcomes, as well as examine new arising issues that have limited evidence-bases. In particular, transdisciplinary and cross-sector research, that includes the social sciences, examining current and future climate-health adaptation, mitigation, and the adaptation-mitigation nexus should become a top priority for research, given the urgent need for this evidence to inform climate change policies, actions, and interventions.}, }
@article {pmid33961684, year = {2021}, author = {Lima, DF and Mello, JHF and Lopes, IT and Forzza, RC and Goldenberg, R and Freitas, L}, title = {Phenological responses to climate change based on a hundred years of herbarium collections of tropical Melastomataceae.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {e0251360}, pmid = {33961684}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Flowers ; Fruit ; *Melastomataceae ; Reproduction ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Changes in phenological events have been vastly documented in face of recent global climate change. These studies are concentrated on temperate plants, and the responses of tropical species are still little understood, likely due to the lack of long-term phenological records in the tropics. In this case, the use of herbarium specimens to gather phenological data over long periods and wide geographic areas has emerged as a powerful tool. Here, we used four Melastomataceae species endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest to evaluate phenological patterns and alterations as responses to recent climate changes. Phenological data were gathered from Reflora Virtual Herbarium specimens collected between 1920 and 2018, and analyzed with circular statistics applied to the intervals 1920-1979, 1980-1999, and 2000-2018. The effects of temperature range, average temperature, precipitation, and photoperiod on flowering and fruiting of each species were tested using multiple linear regressions. Through circular statistics, we detected changes, mostly delays, in the flowering of Miconia quinquedentata, Pleroma clavatum and P. trichopodum, and in the fruiting of M. acutiflora, P. clavatum and P. trichopodum. We also found that flowering and fruiting occurrence were related to local climatic conditions from months prior to the collections. We found marked phenological variations over the decades and also that these variations are associated to global climate change, adding up to the large body of evidence from higher latitudes. Our results also support herbarium collections as an important source for long-term tropical phenological studies. The lack of consistent patterns of responses among the four species (e.g. fruiting delayed two months in P. clavatum and advanced one month in M. acutiflora) suggests that climate change has unequal effects across tropical forests. This highlights the urgent need for further research to understand and forecast the ecological implications of these changes in global ecosystems processes.}, }
@article {pmid33959405, year = {2021}, author = {Nyahunda, L and Tirivangasi, HM}, title = {Harnessing of Social Capital as a Determinant for Climate Change Adaptation in Mazungunye Communal Lands in Bikita, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Scientifica}, volume = {2021}, number = {}, pages = {8416410}, pmid = {33959405}, issn = {2090-908X}, abstract = {The livelihoods of rural people have been plagued by the precarious impacts of climate change-related disasters manifesting through floods, heat waves, droughts, cyclones, and erratic temperatures. However, they have not remained passive victims to these impacts. In light of this, rural people are on record of employing a plethora of adaptation strategies to cushion their livelihoods from climate change impacts. In this vew, the role of social capital as a determinant of climate change adaptation is underexplored. Little attention has been paid to how social capital fostered through trust and cooperation amongst rural households and communities is essential for climate change adaptation. This study explored how people in Mazungunye communal lands are embracing social capital to adapt to climate change impacts. The researchers adopted a qualitative research approach guided by the descriptive research design. The population of the study was gathered through simple random and purposive sampling techniques. Accordingly, the population sample consisted of 25 research participants drawn from members of the community following the simple random and purposive sampling techniques. In-depth individual interviews and focus group discussions were used to collect data. Data were analysed through the Thematic Content Analysis. This study established that different forms of social capital are being embraced by the community members to withstand the effects of climate change. These include village savings clubs (fushai), chief's granary (Zunde raMambo), collective field work (nhimbe), and destocking of livestock (kuronzera) strategies. These strategies illustrate community reliance on indigenous knowledge adaptation strategies as a community response to impacts of climate change on their livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid33957417, year = {2021}, author = {Rinkevich, B}, title = {Augmenting coral adaptation to climate change via coral gardening (the nursery phase).}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {291}, number = {}, pages = {112727}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112727}, pmid = {33957417}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Gardening ; }, abstract = {Unceasing climate change and anthropogenic impacts on coral reefs worldwide lead the needs for augmenting adaptive potential of corals. Currently, the most successful approach for restoring degraded reefs is 'coral gardening', where corals are farmed in underwater nurseries, then outplanted to damaged reefs. Dealing with enhanced coral adaptation, the 'coral gardening' approach is conceptually structured here within a hierarchical list of five encircling tiers that include all restoration activities, focusing on the nursery phase. Each tier encompasses all the activities performed in the levels below it hierarchically. The first is the 'coral mariculture' tier, followed by the 'ecological engineering' tier. The third is the adaptation-based reef restoration (ABRR) tier, preceding the fourth ('ecosystem seascape') and the fifth ('ecosystem services') tiers. The ABRR tier is further conceptualized and its constituent five classes (phenotypic plasticity, assisted migration, epigenetics, coral chimerism, holobiont modification) are detailed. It is concluded that the nursery phase of the 'gardening' tenet may further serve as a platform to enhance the adaptation capacities of corals to climate change through the five ABBR classes. Employing the 'gardening' tiers in reef restoration without considering ABRR will scarcely be able to meet global targets for healthy reef ecosystems in the future.}, }
@article {pmid33953414, year = {2021}, author = {Viglione, G}, title = {Fevers are plaguing the oceans - and climate change is making them worse.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {593}, number = {7857}, pages = {26-28}, pmid = {33953414}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; Atmospheric Pressure ; Brazil ; Climate Change/mortality/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate Models ; *Ecosystem ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Food Chain ; Food Supply ; Forecasting ; Kelp ; *Oceans and Seas ; Seafood ; Western Australia ; }, }
@article {pmid33947498, year = {2021}, author = {Monsell, A and Krzanowski, J and Page, L and Cuthbert, S and Harvey, G}, title = {What mental health professionals and organisations should do to address climate change.}, journal = {BJPsych bulletin}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {215-221}, pmid = {33947498}, issn = {2056-4694}, abstract = {AIMS AND METHOD: The climate change emergency is also a mental healthcare emergency. We seek to provide a framework for what mental health professionals and organisations should do to make their practice more sustainable.<br><br>RESULTS: There are ethical, legal and organisational imperatives to make mental healthcare more sustainable. Mental healthcare must be refocused with an emphasis on prevention, building social capital and community resilience. Patients must be empowered to manage their own mental health. Efficiencies should be found within the system. Low-carbon ways to deliver care must be found, measured and improved upon. Greater adaptability needs to be built into the system to mitigate the impact of climate change. Sustainability should be integrated into training programmes, and good examples of practice shared and celebrated.<br><br>CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Mental health organisations and individuals must act now to prevent and adapt for the climate and ecological emergency. Sustainable practice is also good practice.}, }
@article {pmid34494755, year = {2020}, author = {Yu, L and Wu, ZT and DU, ZQ and Zhang, H and Liu, Y}, title = {[Quantitative analysis of the effects of human activities on vegetation in the Beijing-Tianjin sandstorm source region under the climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {2007-2014}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202006.005}, pmid = {34494755}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Beijing ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {It is of great practical significance for regional ecological management to understand the quantitative impacts of human activities on vegetation under climate change. Based on GIMMS NDVI3g data, meteorological data (temperature, precipitation) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), we used correlation analysis and trend analysis to examine the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation and its driving factors in different periods from 1982 to 2014 in the Beijing-Tianjin sandstorm source region. Regression analysis and residual analysis were used to quantify the impacts of human activities on vegetation changes in different sub-regions. The results showed that from 1982 to 2014, the degradation status in 77.1% of degraded vegetation was significantly improved and 64.1% of vegetation had an increasing trend in the study area, with mean annual NDVI decreasing from southeast to northwest. Vegetation coverage increased in 74.5% of the areas after the implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin sandstorm source control project, with mountains in northern Shanxi showing the most obvious increases. Among all the climate factors, rainfall had the strongest correlation with vegetation change. Human activities, such as ecological engineering, played an active role in most areas, especially in mountains of northern Shanxi, where the contribution of human activities reached 94.9%.}, }
@article {pmid34222767, year = {2021}, author = {Carrasco-Torrontegui, A and Gallegos-Riofrío, CA and Delgado-Espinoza, F and Swanson, M}, title = {Climate Change, Food Sovereignty, and Ancestral Farming Technologies in the Andes.}, journal = {Current developments in nutrition}, volume = {5}, number = {Suppl 4}, pages = {54-60}, pmid = {34222767}, issn = {2475-2991}, abstract = {Indigenous people are among the populations most vulnerable to climate change. However, indigenous societies' potential contributions to addressing climate change and related issues of food security are vast but poorly recognized. The objective of this report is to inform the nutrition and public health communities about the potential contributions of ancient Andean technologies to address these contemporary challenges. Our research examines these ancient farming technologies within the frame of climate change and dietary potential. Specifically, we focus on 4 technologies derived from 3 case studies from Ecuador. These technologies were analyzed using evidence mainly of adaptation to climate change in indigenous-based agriculture. Our examination of these technologies suggests they could be effective mechanisms for adapting to climate change and protecting food sovereignty. Thus, although highly vulnerable to climate change, indigenous peoples in the Andes should also be seen as "agents of change."}, }
@article {pmid34692072, year = {2020}, author = {Duan, Q and Duan, A}, title = {The energy and water cycles under climate change.}, journal = {National science review}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {553-557}, doi = {10.1093/nsr/nwaa003}, pmid = {34692072}, issn = {2053-714X}, abstract = {Energy and water cycles have been a hot research topic in the global scientific community. The global climate change observed over the last century is having a profound impact on global and regional energy and water cycles, leading to more frequent extreme climatic events and affecting water security, ecosystem and socioeconomic development around the world. The impact is especially obvious over the highland regions such as the Tibetan Plateau. Here we have an interview with one of world's most renowned experts in hydroclimatology, Professor Soroosh Sorooshian from the University of California at Irvine, to share his insights on the subject of energy and water cycles.}, }
@article {pmid34317707, year = {2020}, author = {Smith, CR}, title = {Commentary: Robotic surgery increases global warming.}, journal = {JTCVS techniques}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {43}, pmid = {34317707}, issn = {2666-2507}, }
@article {pmid33952103, year = {2019}, author = {Zeavin, L}, title = {Climate change panel report.}, journal = {The International journal of psycho-analysis}, volume = {100}, number = {5}, pages = {1015-1017}, doi = {10.1080/00207578.2019.1681749}, pmid = {33952103}, issn = {1745-8315}, }
@article {pmid34532280, year = {2019}, author = {Bell, SA and Czerwinski, M and Horowitz, J and Iwashyna, TJ and Sarfaty, M}, title = {Climate change and health beliefs, knowledge, and educational needs among disaster providers.}, journal = {International journal of public health research}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {1127-1134}, pmid = {34532280}, issn = {2232-0253}, support = {K23 AG059890/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change has been called the greatest public health threat of our time. Increasing morbidity and mortality is expected to continue as climate-associated disasters become more prevalent. Disaster health professionals are on the front lines of addressing these health sequalae, making the need to assess their knowledge of climate change and health and their perceived need for a policy response critically important.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to examine the knowledge, opinions, and educational needs of disaster health providers surrounding climate change and health.<br><br>METHODS: A web-based questionnaire assessing disaster health professionals' attitudes and knowledge on the health effects of climate change and associated policy recommendations was administered to a sample of disaster health professionals.<br><br>RESULTS: Among the study's 150 participants, 95% responded affirmatively that climate change exists and is largely caused by humans. Two-thirds (67%) indicated climate change affects their patient's health and 93% indicated climate change will continue to affect patients in the future. Respondents also believed climate change will impact vulnerable populations such as children under four years old (75%), the elderly (72%) and those living in poverty (71%). Three-quarters (76%) indicated educating patients about climate change and its association with health outcomes should be integrated into health professions education.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Disaster health professionals need access to education on climate-change related health impacts, materials for patients and relevant policy information. This research provides evidence from front-line disaster and emergency health professionals that can inform policy on climate change and health.}, }
@article {pmid34466943, year = {2017}, author = {Greenglass, A}, title = {Climate Change and Population Health.}, journal = {Delaware journal of public health}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {60-66}, pmid = {34466943}, issn = {2639-6378}, }
@article {pmid34466942, year = {2017}, author = {Meredith, WH and Eppes, SC}, title = {Climate Change:: Vector-Borne Diseases and Their Control; Mosquitoes and Ticks.}, journal = {Delaware journal of public health}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {52-57}, doi = {10.32481/djph.2017.10.009}, pmid = {34466942}, issn = {2639-6378}, }
@article {pmid34466941, year = {2017}, author = {Gost, A and Hess-Mutinda, R and Mitchell, C and Sapkota, A}, title = {Climate and Health in Maryland:: The Maryland Climate Change Health Adaptation Program.}, journal = {Delaware journal of public health}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {44-50}, pmid = {34466941}, issn = {2639-6378}, abstract = {Maryland's response to climate change has included creation of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change in 2007, and initiatives across many State agencies. The Commission coordinates these initiatives through the State Climate Action Plan. The Maryland Department of Health has partnered with the School of Public Health at the University of Maryland College Park to develop the 2016 Climate and Health Profile report, which estimates the health impacts of climate change in Maryland. Using historical health data and climate model projections, the report found that climate change will have a disproportionate impact on certain populations across the state. For example, extreme heat and extreme precipitation events during summer months increased the risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland by 22% and 11% respectively. But the extreme heat related risk for asthma hospitalization was more pronounced among non-Hispanic whites (33%) than non-Hispanic blacks (20%). Based on these findings, the Department and School have begun to engage with community organizations and various stakeholders to develop interventions and adaptations aimed at increasing resilience and mitigating some of the health impacts. Through these partnerships and projects, Maryland is using health data, climate projections, and the State Climate Action Plan to assist local communities and regional partners in climate adaptation activities.}, }
@article {pmid34466939, year = {2017}, author = {Duffy, PB}, title = {Climate Change and Health.}, journal = {Delaware journal of public health}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {24-25}, pmid = {34466939}, issn = {2639-6378}, }
@article {pmid34466937, year = {2017}, author = {Brodie, JF and Archer, CL and Rauscher, SA}, title = {Ozone pollution in Delaware:: How does climate change influence ozone-related health?.}, journal = {Delaware journal of public health}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {6-11}, pmid = {34466937}, issn = {2639-6378}, abstract = {Ozone is the only pollutant that exceeds national and state standards in Delaware. Using observations and two different climate models, the number of high-ozone days (days exceeding 70 ppb based on the 8-hour average in Delaware) is investigated for the late 20th and early to mid-21st centuries using a synoptic typing methodology, which relates surface conditions conducive to high-ozone events to atmospheric circulation. High-ozone days are associated with the absence of precipitation and southwesterly to west-northwesterly flow over Delaware, which tend to bring higher daily mean temperatures (exceeding 25.5°C). Models underestimate the number of observed high-ozone days in the 20th century, because the models do not include the effects of ozone regulation, which has decreased the number of ozone days. Meanwhile, higher concentrations of greenhouse gases and the resulting higher temperatures favor increased ozone days, an effect that is captured by the models. As temperatures continue to rise in the 21st century, climate projections indicate that high-ozone conditions will occur more frequently. By mid-century, the number of high-ozone days is projected to increase by about an extra day every two years, which is faster than it was in the previous 30 years. Thus global warming cancels out a quarter of the progress made in improving air quality in the state of Delaware, meaning that the air quality in mid-century is expected to be the same as it was around 2006. In a warming world, air quality standards will need to stricter to maintain or reduce the number of high-ozone events in Delaware.}, }
@article {pmid34483635, year = {2017}, author = {bunten, DM and Kahn, ME}, title = {Optimal real estate capital durability and localized climate change disaster risk.}, journal = {Journal of housing economics}, volume = {36}, number = {}, pages = {1-7}, pmid = {34483635}, issn = {1051-1377}, support = {P2C HD041022/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; T32 HD007545/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {The durability of the real estate capital stock could hinder climate change adaptation because past construction anchors the population in beautiful and productive but increasingly-risky coastal areas. However, coastal developers anticipate that their assets face increasing risk and this creates an incentive to seek adaptation strategies. This paper models climate change as a joint process of (1) increasingly destructive storms and (2) a risk of sea-level rise that submerges coastal property. We study how forward-looking developers and real estate investors respond to the new risks along a number of dimensions including their choices of location, capital durability, capital mobility (modular real estate), and maintenance of existing properties. The net effect of such investments is a more resilient urban population.}, }
@article {pmid34123482, year = {2017}, author = {Gruenberg, K and Apollonio, D and MacDougall, C and Brock, T}, title = {Sustainable Pharmacy: Piloting a Session on Pharmaceuticals, Climate Change, and Sustainability within a U.S. Pharmacy Curriculum.}, journal = {Innovations in pharmacy}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {34123482}, issn = {2155-0417}, support = {P60 MD006902/MD/NIMHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To design and assess an innovative session for pharmacy students that addresses the role of pharmaceuticals with climate change and sustainability.<br><br>INNOVATION: One hundred and sixteen third-year students at the University of California, San Francisco School of Pharmacy participated during their required Health Policy course. This 3-hour session included guided pre-course activities, an interactive lecture, a panel of healthcare professionals discussing complex decision-making and small group case-based learning. Curricular assessment was conducted through pre-/post-test measures of knowledge acquisition, student evaluations, and course projects.<br><br>CRITICAL ANALYSIS: One hundred and two students (response rate 88%) completed the pre-test and 115 students (response rate 99%) completed the post-test assessment. We identified a significant increase in the proportion of correct answers on post-test questions addressing drug disposal legislation (75% pre-test vs 91% post-test, p=0.002) and the predicted effects of climate change on health (55% pre-test vs 90% post-test, p < 0.001). The session was also well received; average student evaluation scores were above 4 in all areas of course evaluation (where 5=ideal). In addition, 17% of student groups (relative to 0% in 2015) proposed a sustainability-related policy as their final coursework project.<br><br>NEXT STEPS: The development and implementation of this brief session resulted in knowledge gain and favorable student response. This project is feasible for other Schools of Pharmacy to adapt and implement.}, }
@article {pmid34588945, year = {2016}, author = {Price, JC and Wright, L and Fant, C and Strzepek, KM}, title = {Calibrated methodology for assessing climate change adaptation costs for urban drainage systems.}, journal = {Urban water journal}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {34588945}, issn = {1744-9006}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Changes in precipitation patterns associated with climate change may pose significant challenges for storm water management systems across the U.S. In particular, adapting these systems to more intense rainfall events will require significant investment, though no method currently exists for estimating the costs of these investments on a national scale. To support assessment of these costs at the national level, this paper presents a reduced-form approach for estimating changes in normalized flood depth (the volume of node flooding normalized by the area of the catchment) and the associated costs of flood prevention. This reduced form approach is calibrated to results generated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for city-wide or neighborhood-level catchments in seven cities across the U.S. Estimates derived from this approach represent a reasonable approximation of storm water management adaptation costs and exhibit no systematic bias relative to results derived from SWMM.}, }
@article {pmid34136496, year = {2014}, author = {Kim, YM and Kim, S and Liu, Y}, title = {The impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in six major cities, South Korea, under representative concentration pathways (RCPs).}, journal = {Frontiers in environmental science}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {3}, pmid = {34136496}, issn = {2296-665X}, support = {U01 EH000405/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: We aimed to quantify the excess mortality associated with increased temperature due to climate change in six major Korean cities under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) which are new emission scenarios designed for the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).<br><br>METHODS: We first examined the association between daily mean temperature and mortality in each during the summertime (June to September) from 2001 to 2008. This was done using a generalized linear Poisson model with adjustment for a long-term time trend, relative humidity, air pollutants, and day of the week. We then computed heat-related mortality attributable to future climate change using estimated mortality risks, projected future populations, and temperature increments for both future years 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We considered effects from added days with high temperatures over thresholds and shifted effects from high to higher temperature.<br><br>RESULTS: Estimated excess all-cause mortalities for six cities in Korea ranged from 500 (95% CI: 313-703) for 2041-2070 to 2,320 (95% CI: 1430-3281) deaths per year for 2071-2100 under two RCPs. Excess cardiovascular mortality was estimated to range from 192 (95% CI: 41-351) to 896 (95% CI: 185-1694) deaths per year, covering about 38.5% of all-cause excess mortality. Increased rates of heat-related mortality were higher in cities located at relatively lower latitude than cities with higher latitude. Estimated excess mortality under RCP 8.5, a fossil fuel-intensive emission scenario, was more than twice as high compared with RCP 4.5, low to medium emission scenario.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Excess mortality due to climate change is expected to be profound in the future showing spatial variation. Efforts to mitigate climate change can cause substantial health benefits via reducing heat-related mortality.}, }
@article {pmid34135946, year = {2013}, author = {Gao, Y and Fu, JS and Drake, JB and Lamarque, JF and Liu, Y}, title = {The impact of emission and climate change on ozone in the United States under representative concentration pathways (RCPs).}, journal = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics}, volume = {13}, number = {18}, pages = {9607-9621}, pmid = {34135946}, issn = {1680-7316}, support = {U01 EH000405/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Dynamical downscaling was applied in this study to link the global climate-chemistry model Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-Chem) with the regional models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the climate impact on ozone concentrations in the 2050s. From the CAM-Chem global simulation results, ozone concentrations in the lower to mid-troposphere (surface to ~300 hPa), from mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, decreases by the end of the 2050s (2057-2059) in RCP 4.5 compared to present (2001-2004), with the largest decrease of 4-10 ppbv occurring in the summer and the fall; and an increase as high as 10 ppbv in RCP 8.5 resulting from the increased methane emissions. From the regional model CMAQ simulation results, under the RCP 4.5 scenario (2057-2059), in the summer when photochemical reactions are the most active, the large ozone precursor emissions reduction leads to the greatest decrease of downscaled surface ozone concentrations compared to present (2001-2004), ranging from 6 to 10 ppbv. However, a few major cities show ozone increases of 3 to 7 ppbv due to weakened NO titration. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, in winter, downscaled ozone concentrations increase across nearly the entire continental US in winter, ranging from 3 to 10 ppbv due to increased methane emissions. More intense heat waves are projected to occur by the end of the 2050s in RCP 8.5, leading to a 0.3 ppbv to 2.0 ppbv increase (statistically significant except in the Southeast) of the mean maximum daily 8 h daily average (MDA8) ozone in nine climate regions in the US. Moreover, the upper 95% limit of MDA8 increase reaches 0.4 ppbv to 1.5 ppbv in RCP 4.5 and 0.6 ppbv to 3.2 ppbv in RCP 8.5. The magnitude differences of increase between RCP 4.5 and 8.5 also reflect that the increase of methane emissions may favor or strengthen the effect of heat waves.}, }
@article {pmid34517682, year = {2005}, author = {Jump, AS and Peñuelas, J}, title = {Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {1010-1020}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00796.x}, pmid = {34517682}, issn = {1461-0248}, abstract = {Climate is a potent selective force in natural populations, yet the importance of adaptation in the response of plant species to past climate change has been questioned. As many species are unlikely to migrate fast enough to track the rapidly changing climate of the future, adaptation must play an increasingly important role in their response. In this paper we review recent work that has documented climate-related genetic diversity within populations or on the microgeographical scale. We then describe studies that have looked at the potential evolutionary responses of plant populations to future climate change. We argue that in fragmented landscapes, rapid climate change has the potential to overwhelm the capacity for adaptation in many plant populations and dramatically alter their genetic composition. The consequences are likely to include unpredictable changes in the presence and abundance of species within communities and a reduction in their ability to resist and recover from further environmental perturbations, such as pest and disease outbreaks and extreme climatic events. Overall, a range-wide increase in extinction risk is likely to result. We call for further research into understanding the causes and consequences of the maintenance and loss of climate-related genetic diversity within populations.}, }
@article {pmid33946714, year = {2021}, author = {Miyayo, SF and Owili, PO and Muga, MA and Lin, TH}, title = {Analysis of Pneumonia Occurrence in Relation to Climate Change in Tanga, Tanzania.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {33946714}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Humidity ; *Pneumonia/epidemiology ; Tanzania/epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In 2018, 70% of global fatalities due to pneumonia occurred in about fifteen countries, with Tanzania being among the top eight countries contributing to these deaths. Environmental and individual factors contributing to these deaths may be multifaceted, but they have not yet been explored in Tanzania. Therefore, in this study, we explore the association between climate change and the occurrence of pneumonia in the Tanga Region, Tanzania. A time series study design was employed using meteorological and health data of the Tanga Region collected from January 2016 to December 2018 from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority and Health Management Information System, respectively. The generalized negative binomial regression technique was used to explore the associations between climate indicators (i.e., precipitation, humidity, and temperature) and the occurrence of pneumonia. There were trend differences in climate indicators and the occurrence of pneumonia between the Tanga and Handeni districts. We found a positive association between humidity and increased rates of non-severe pneumonia (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.01-1.02; p ≤ 0.05) and severe pneumonia (IRR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01-1.03; p ≤ 0.05). There was also a significant association between cold temperatures and the rate of severe pneumonia in Tanga (IRR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.11-1.33; p ≤ 0.001). Other factors that were associated with pneumonia included age and district of residence. We found a positive relationship between humidity, temperature, and incidence of pneumonia in the Tanga Region. Policies focusing on prevention and control, as well as promotion strategies relating to climate change-related health effects should be developed and implemented.}, }
@article {pmid33946189, year = {2021}, author = {Narayan, E and Barreto, M and Hantzopoulou, GC and Tilbrook, A}, title = {A Retrospective Literature Evaluation of the Integration of Stress Physiology Indices, Animal Welfare and Climate Change Assessment of Livestock.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {33946189}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {In this retrospective study, we conducted a desktop-based analysis of published literature using the ScienceDirect™ search engine to determine the proportion of livestock research within the last 7 years (2015-2021) that have applied animal welfare assessment combining objective measures of physiological stress and evaluation of climate change factors in order to provide an account of livestock productivity. From the search results, 563 published articles were reviewed. We found that the majority of the literature had discussed animal production outcomes (n = 491) and animal welfare (n = 453) either individually or in conjunction with another topic. The most popular occurrence was the combination of animal welfare assessment, objective measures of stress physiology and production outcomes discussed collectively (n = 218). We found that only 125 articles had discussed the impact of climate change (22.20%) on livestock production and/or vice versa. Furthermore, only 9.4% (n = 53) of articles had discussed all four factors and published research was skewed towards the dairy sector. Overall, this retrospective paper highlights that although research into animal welfare assessment, objective measures of stress and climate change has been applied across livestock production systems (monogastrics and ruminants), there remains a shortfall of investigation on how these key factors interact to influence livestock production. Furthermore, emerging technologies that can boost the quantitative evaluation of animal welfare are needed for both intensive and extensive production systems.}, }
@article {pmid33946016, year = {2021}, author = {Kurz, T and Prosser, AMB}, title = {Understanding the social dynamics of climate change through analyses of discourse.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {71-75}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.03.010}, pmid = {33946016}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Language ; *Psychology, Social ; }, abstract = {Analyses of discourse surrounding climate change is a vital, but understudied, area of environmental and social psychology. Discursive and narrative approaches, with roots in other social sciences but increasingly attracting the attention of psychologists, explore how social actions are justified, legitimised and normalised through talk and text. Such approaches explore language produced by actors at a variety of levels, from the individual (micro) level, to the societal and political (macro) level. In this review, we aim to draw psychologists' attention to recent discursive and narrative work on the topic of climate change. We summarise the importance of discursive methodologies for understanding and problematising the social dynamics of climate change at macro and micro levels and highlight their implications for intervention.}, }
@article {pmid33945219, year = {2021}, author = {Cogliati, M}, title = {Global warming impact on the expansion of fundamental niche of Cryptococcus gattii VGI in Europe.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology reports}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {375-383}, pmid = {33945219}, issn = {1758-2229}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Cryptococcosis/epidemiology/microbiology ; *Cryptococcus gattii/genetics ; Europe ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {In the present study, we analysed how geographical distribution of the fungal pathogen Cryptococcus gattii VGI in Europe and Mediterranean area has evolved in the last four decades based on the climatic changes, and we tried to predict the scenario for the next decade. Niche modelling by Maxent analysis showed that recent climate changes have significantly affected the distribution of the fungus revealing a gradual expansion of the fundamental niche from 1980 to 2009 followed by an impressive increase in the last decade (2010-2019) during which the environmental surface suitable for the fungal survival was more than doubled. In the next decade, our model predicted an increase in the area of distribution of C. gattii VGI from the coasts of the Mediterranean basin towards the more internal sub-continental areas. On the basis of these predictions, an increase of cases of cryptococcosis due to C. gattii VGI is expected in the next decade and a constant monitoring of the epidemiology of this fungal pathogen represents a crucial strategy to detect the onset of future outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid33940721, year = {2021}, author = {Marazziti, D and Cianconi, P and Mucci, F and Foresi, L and Chiarantini, I and Della Vecchia, A}, title = {Climate change, environment pollution, COVID-19 pandemic and mental health.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {773}, number = {}, pages = {145182}, pmid = {33940721}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Aged ; *COVID-19 ; Child ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Mental Health ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {Converging data would indicate the existence of possible relationships between climate change, environmental pollution and epidemics/pandemics, such as the current one due to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Each of these phenomena has been supposed to provoke detrimental effects on mental health. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to review the available scientific literature on these variables in order to suggest and comment on their eventual synergistic effects on mental health. The available literature report that climate change, air pollution and COVID-19 pandemic might influence mental health, with disturbances ranging from mild negative emotional responses to full-blown psychiatric conditions, specifically, anxiety and depression, stress/trauma-related disorders, and substance abuse. The most vulnerable groups include elderly, children, women, people with pre-existing health problems especially mental illnesses, subjects taking some types of medication including psychotropic drugs, individuals with low socio-economic status, and immigrants. It is evident that COVID-19 pandemic uncovers all the fragility and weakness of our ecosystem, and inability to protect ourselves from pollutants. Again, it underlines our faults and neglect towards disasters deriving from climate change or pollution, or the consequences of human activities irrespective of natural habitats and constantly increasing the probability of spillover of viruses from animals to humans. In conclusion, the psychological/psychiatric consequences of COVID-19 pandemic, that currently seem unavoidable, represent a sharp cue of our misconception and indifference towards the links between our behaviour and their influence on the "health" of our planet and of ourselves. It is time to move towards a deeper understanding of these relationships, not only for our survival, but for the maintenance of that balance among man, animals and environment at the basis of life in earth, otherwise there will be no future.}, }
@article {pmid33937914, year = {2021}, author = {Rieckmann, M and Hoff, H and Bokop, K}, title = {Effective Community-Academic Partnerships on Climate Change Adaption and Mitigation: Results of a European Delphi Study.}, journal = {Sustainability and climate change}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {76-83}, pmid = {33937914}, issn = {2692-2932}, abstract = {The effects of anthropogenic climate change have become increasingly prevalent. There is thus a need both to prevent climate change or soften its effects (mitigation) and to address and deal with effects that are already occurring (adaptation). To facilitate climate action in a creative way, new forms of collaboration are needed, which will lead to increased transformative potential for individuals, for the economy, and for society as a whole. Against this background, community-academic partnerships can serve as an innovative format for collaboration. However, to ensure that these partnerships develop to their full potential, they must be designed in such a way that all involved can participate effectively. Consequently, the question arises of what the success factors and conditions for effective practices are for community-academic partnerships focusing on climate change adaptation and/or mitigation. To answer this question, a Delphi study was conducted with a panel of experts on cocreation processes and climate change adaptation and/or mitigation under the auspices of the European project TeRRIFICA. The results of the study show how community-academic partnerships should be structured and designed to ensure that all stakeholders are involved in the entire process and that positive contributions to climate change adaptation and mitigation can be made. Overall, the results confirm existing findings on success factors for community-academic partnerships, but the relevance of hands-on activities and supportive tools is emphasized much more clearly than in the existing literature.}, }
@article {pmid33934308, year = {2021}, author = {Usman, M and Husnain, M and Riaz, A and Riaz, A and Ali, Y}, title = {Climate change during the COVID-19 outbreak: scoping future perspectives.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {35}, pages = {49302-49313}, pmid = {33934308}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; *COVID-19 ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {Neither war nor recession or any kind of prior disaster has been considered a prelude to the looming threat of climate change over the past era as coronavirus (hereafter COVID-19) has in only a few months. Although numerous studies have already been published on this topic, there has not been compelling evidence critically assessing the impact of COVID-19 by and on climate change. The present study fills this gap by taking a more holistic approach to elaborate factors, e.g., natural and anthropogenic factors, ocean submesoscales, radiative forces, and greenhouse gas/CO2 emissions, that may affect climate change in a more prevalent and pronounced manner. Based on the statistical data collected from the NASA Earth Observatory, the European Space Agency, and the Global Carbon Project, the findings of this study reveal that the climate/environment has improved during COVID-19, including better environmental quality and water quality with low carbon emissions and sound pollution. In the lockdown during the epidemic, the emissions of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) significantly decreased because of the lower usage of transportation, decreased electricity demand, and halted industrial activities. The policy implications of this study suggested that keeping the climate healthy even in the post-COVID-19 era is a serious concern that needs to be addressed by investing in clean and green projects, ensuring green energy evolution, dealing with a large volume of medical waste, building health-ensuring and livable societies, and halting the funding of pollution. For governmental and regulatory bodies, these factors will provide a strong foundation to build safer, healthier, and environmentally friendly societies for generations to come.}, }
@article {pmid33933897, year = {2021}, author = {Kibria, G and Nugegoda, D and Rose, G and Haroon, AKY}, title = {Climate change impacts on pollutants mobilization and interactive effects of climate change and pollutants on toxicity and bioaccumulation of pollutants in estuarine and marine biota and linkage to seafood security.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {167}, number = {}, pages = {112364}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112364}, pmid = {33933897}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Bioaccumulation ; Biota ; Climate Change ; *Environmental Pollutants ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seafood ; Seawater ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical ; }, abstract = {This article provides an overview of the impacts of climate change stressors (temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, and hypoxia) on estuarine and marine biota (algae, crustaceans, molluscs, corals, and fish). It also assessed possible/likely interactive impacts (combined impacts of climate change stressors and pollutants) on pollutants mobilization, pollutants toxicity (effects on growth, reproduction, mortality) and pollutants bioaccumulation in estuarine and marine biota. An increase in temperature and extreme events may enhance the release, degradation, transportation, and mobilization of both hydrophobic and hydrophilic pollutants in the estuarine and marine environments. Based on the available pollutants' toxicity trend data and information it reveals that the toxicity of several high-risk pollutants may increase with increasing levels of climate change stressors. It is likely that the interactive effects of climate change and pollutants may enhance the bioaccumulation of pollutants in seafood organisms. There is a paucity of literature relating to realistic interactive effects of climate change and pollutants. Therefore, future research should be directed towards the combined effects of climate change stressors and pollutants on estuarine and marine bota. A sustainable solution for pollution control caused by both greenhouse gas emissions (that cause climate change) and chemical pollutants would be required to safeguard the estuarine and marine biota.}, }
@article {pmid33931440, year = {2021}, author = {Fiorella, KJ and Bageant, ER and Schwartz, NB and Thilsted, SH and Barrett, CB}, title = {Fishers' response to temperature change reveals the importance of integrating human behavior in climate change analysis.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {7}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {33931440}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Climate change will reshape ecological dynamics. Yet, how temperature increases alter the behavior and resource use of people reliant on natural resources remains underexplored. Consequent behavior shifts have the potential to mitigate or accelerate climate impacts on livelihoods and food security. Particularly within the small-scale inland fisheries that support approximately 10% of the global population, temperature changes likely affect both fish and fishers. To analyze how changing temperatures alter households' fishing behavior, we examined fishing effort and fish catch in a major inland fishery. We used longitudinal observational data from households in Cambodia, which has the highest per-capita consumption of inland fish in the world. Higher temperatures caused households to reduce their participation in fishing but had limited net effects on fish catch. Incorporating human behavioral responses to changing environmental conditions will be fundamental to determining how climate change affects rural livelihoods, food production, and food access.}, }
@article {pmid33930832, year = {2021}, author = {Markowitz, DM and Bailenson, JN}, title = {Virtual reality and the psychology of climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {60-65}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.03.009}, pmid = {33930832}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Educational Status ; Humans ; *Virtual Reality ; }, abstract = {Researchers and practitioners have used virtual reality (VR) as a tool to understand attitudes and behaviors around climate change for decades. As VR has become more immersive, mainstream, and commercially available, it has also become a medium for education about climate issues, a way to indirectly expose users to novel stimuli, and a tool to tell stories about antienvironmental activity. This review explicates the relationship between VR and climate change from a psychological perspective and offers recommendations to make virtual experiences engaging, available, and impactful for users. Climate change is perhaps the most urgent global issue of our lifetime with irreversible consequences. It therefore requires innovative experiential approaches to teach its effects and modify attitudes in support of proenvironmental actions.}, }
@article {pmid33927295, year = {2021}, author = {Baul, TK and Peuly, TA and Nandi, R and Schmidt, LH and Karmakar, S}, title = {Carbon stocks of homestead forests have a mitigation potential to climate change in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {9254}, pmid = {33927295}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A total of 176 homestead forests at three altitudes in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, Bangladesh were randomly surveyed to estimate carbon (C) stocks and how stand structure affects the biomass C. All woody vegetations were measured, and litter and soil (0-30 cm depth) were sampled. The tree biomass C stock in the top two altitude forests was up to 37-48% higher than in low altitude, owing to significantly higher tree density and species diversity. An increase in species diversity index by one unit increased the biomass stock by 23 Mg C ha[-1]. The C stock of litterfall in low altitude forests was 22-28% higher than in the top two altitude due to the deposition of litters downslope and deliberate use of mulch for soil improvement and conservation, resulting in up to 5% higher total soil C. The topsoil C was 10-25% higher than the deeper soil, depending on the altitude. The forest stored 89 Mg C ha[-1], indicating a potential for C sequestration in trees outside forest. This study would help policymakers to strengthen the recognition of small-scale forests for mitigation in REDD + (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks) and support owners through C credits from sustainably managed forests.}, }
@article {pmid33927002, year = {2021}, author = {Vineis, P and Beagley, J and Bisceglia, L and Carra, L and Cingolani, R and Forastiere, F and Musco, F and Romanello, M and Saracci, R}, title = {Strategy for primary prevention of non-communicable diseases (NCD) and mitigation of climate change in Italy.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and community health}, volume = {75}, number = {9}, pages = {917-924}, pmid = {33927002}, issn = {1470-2738}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; *Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Pediatric Obesity ; Primary Prevention ; }, abstract = {This paper derives from a document commissioned in 2019 by the Italian Minister of Health, and outlines a general strategy for primary prevention of non-communicable diseases in Italy, with a special focus on cobenefits of climate change mitigation. Given that action against climate change is primarily taken via energy choices, limiting the use of fossil fuels and promoting renewable sources, an effective strategy is one in which interventions are designed to prevent diseases and jointly mitigate climate change, the so-called cobenefits. For policies capable of producing relevant co-benefits we focus on three categories of interventions, urban planning, diet and transport that are of special importance. For example, policies promoting active transport (cycling, walking) have the triple effect of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, preventing diseases related to atmospheric pollution, and increasing physical activity, thus preventing obesity and diabetes.In particular, we propose that for 2025 the following goals are achieved: reduce the prevalence of smokers by 30%, with particular emphasis on young people; reduce the prevalence of childhood obesity by 20%; reduce the proportion of calories obtained from ultraprocessed foods by 20%; reduce the consumption of alcohol by 10%; reduce the consumption of salt by 30%; reduce the consumption of sugary drinks by 20%; reduce the average consumption of meat by 20%; increase the weekly hours of exercise by 10%. The aim is to complement individual health promotion with structural policies (such as urban planning, taxation and incentives) which render the former more effective and result in a reduction in inequality. We strongly encourage the inclusion of primary prevention in all policies, in light of the described cobenefits. Italy's role as the cohost of the 2020 (now 2021) UN climate negotiations (COP26) presents the opportunity for international leadership in addressing health as an integral component of the response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33926579, year = {2021}, author = {Zisis, E and Hakimi, S and Lee, EY}, title = {Climate change, 24-hour movement behaviors, and health: a mini umbrella review.}, journal = {Global health research and policy}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {15}, pmid = {33926579}, issn = {2397-0642}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Exercise ; Humans ; *Sedentary Behavior ; *Sleep ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The worsening climate change and alarming prevalence of communicable and non-communicable diseases continue to threat human life and existence. Accumulating evidence suggests that favorable patterns of 24-h movement behaviors, high physical activity, low sedentary behavior, and adequate sleep, may positively contribute to achieving dual benefits of climate change mitigation and disease prevention. The purposes of this mini umbrella review were to summarize the most up-to-date, high-level evidence exploring the relationships between climate change, 24-h movement behaviors, and health and elaborate on the mechanisms linking the three variables of interest.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic search of electronic databases was performed in PubMed and Google Scholar during March-October 2020. Inclusion criteria were: (1) systematic review; (2) reviewed relationships between climate change and movement behaviors and/or health in any directions; (3) written in English; (4) published in 2010-2020. Narrative synthesis was conducted to highlight the main relationships observed and address the current state of knowledge and priorities for future research. In order to illustrate the potential mechanisms between climate change, movement behaviors, and health, the main results from included systematic reviews were summarized and a conceptual framework was developed for future research.<br><br>RESULTS: Based on the evidence from eight systematic reviews published in the past decade, multi-directional (i.e., uni-, bi-, or U-shaped) links were observed between climate change and varying human health outcomes. However, little is understood about the association between climate change and 24-h movement behaviors. Two reviews suggested the negative impact of climate change on sleep and bi-directional relationships between climate change and physical activity/sport. One review included two studies suggesting the unfavorable impact of climate change on sedentary behavior; however, the evidence was limited. Finally, no reviews examined the mechanisms by which climate change, movement behaviors, and health impact one another. Based on the findings of this mini umbrella review, a conceptual framework is proposed that could guide future work to unpack mechanisms between climate change, movement behaviors, and health.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This mini umbrella review highlights the importance of better understanding the mechanisms between climate change, movement behaviors, and health in developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to climate change, while paying close attention to vulnerable countries/communities/population groups.}, }
@article {pmid33925753, year = {2021}, author = {Opoku, SK and Leal Filho, W and Hubert, F and Adejumo, O}, title = {Climate Change and Health Preparedness in Africa: Analysing Trends in Six African Countries.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {33925753}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Ethiopia ; Ghana ; Humans ; Kenya ; Namibia ; Nigeria ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global problem, which affects the various geographical regions at different levels. It is also associated with a wide range of human health problems, which pose a burden to health systems, especially in regions such as Africa. Indeed, across the African continent public health systems are under severe pressure, partly due to their fragile socioeconomic conditions. This paper reports on a cross-sectional study in six African countries (Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Namibia, Ethiopia, and Kenya) aimed at assessing their vulnerabilities to climate change, focusing on its impacts on human health. The study evaluated the levels of information, knowledge, and perceptions of public health professionals. It also examined the health systems' preparedness to cope with these health hazards, the available resources, and those needed to build resilience to the country's vulnerable population, as perceived by health professionals. The results revealed that 63.1% of the total respondents reported that climate change had been extensively experienced in the past years, while 32% claimed that the sampled countries had experienced them to some extent. Nigerian respondents recorded the highest levels (67.7%), followed by Kenya with 66.6%. South Africa had the lowest level of impact as perceived by the respondents (50.0%) when compared with the other sampled countries. All respondents from Ghana and Namibia reported that health problems caused by climate change are common in the two countries. As perceived by the health professionals, the inadequate resources reiterate the need for infrastructural resources, medical equipment, emergency response resources, and technical support. The study's recommendations include the need to improve current policies at all levels (i.e., national, regional, and local) on climate change and public health and to strengthen health professionals' skills. Improving the basic knowledge of health institutions to better respond to a changing climate is also recommended. The study provides valuable insights which may be helpful to other nations in Sub-Saharan Africa.}, }
@article {pmid33924706, year = {2021}, author = {Ji, W and Gao, G and Wei, J}, title = {Potential Global Distribution of Daktulosphaira vitifoliae under Climate Change Based on MaxEnt.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {33924706}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {2020-065//Shanxi Scholarship Council of China/ ; 2020KJ037//Cultivate Science and Technology Research Excellence Programs of Higher Education Institutions in Shanxi/ ; }, abstract = {Grape phylloxera, Daktulosphaira vitifoliae, is a small, invasive, sap-sucking pest that is widely present in most viticulture regions all over the world. It is originally from North America and feeds on grapevine roots and leaves. In the current study, the potential distribution area of the leaf-feeding population was investigated with MaxEnt based on population occurrence data under different environmental variables. Results suggested that under current climatic conditions, Europe, East and North China, Japan, the Eastern USA, Uruguay, and the Southeast of South America are highly suitable areas for the occurrence of phylloxera leaf populations. The results showed that isothermality and precipitation of coldest quarter were major factors which contribute more than 60% of the model under current climate conditions. Our results provide important information for governmental decision makers and famers to develop control and management strategies against D. vitifoliae, and can also be used as a reference for studies on other invasive pest.}, }
@article {pmid33924661, year = {2021}, author = {Pakharkova, N and Kazantseva, A and Sharafutdinov, R and Borisova, I and Gavrikov, V}, title = {Two-Species Forests at the Treeline of Siberian Mountains: An Ecophysiological Perspective under Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {33924661}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {19-05-00091//Russian Foundation for Basic Research/ ; }, abstract = {In an underexplored region of the East Sayan mountains, ecophysiological traits of two conifers, Pinus sibirica Du Tour and Abies sibírica Ledeb., have been studied. The goal was to predict which of the species co-dominating the same habitat is more vulnerable under prospective climate change. Along a transect from the treeline to the floodplain, photosynthetic pigment content and electron-transport rate (ETR) were measured in needles of neighboring trees of the species. From 570 to 1240 m a.s.l., P. sibirica does not suffer from stress factors during the growing season, while A. sibirica does. The latter is reflected in a decrease of pigment content and ETR with the increase of altitude. A stronger climate-change trend (probably to more dry and warm conditions) will likely favor the shift of P. sibirica upper in altitudes, and only under the pine shelter might the fir survive the changes.}, }
@article {pmid33924259, year = {2021}, author = {Jaskuła, R and Kolanowska, M and Michalski, M and Schwerk, A}, title = {From Phenology and Habitat Preferences to Climate Change: Importance of Citizen Science in Studying Insect Ecology in the Continental Scale with American Red Flat Bark Beetle, Cucujus clavipes, as a Model Species.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {33924259}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {The American red flat bark beetle, Cucujus clavipes, is a wide distributed saproxylic species divided into two subspecies: ssp. clavipes restricted to eastern regions of North America and ssp. puniceus occurring only in western regions of this continent. Unique morphological features, including body shape and body coloration, make this species easy to recognize even for amateurs. Surprisingly, except some studies focused on physiological adaptations of the species, the ecology of C. clavipes was almost unstudied. Based on over 500 records collected by citizen scientists and deposited in the iNaturalist data base, we studied phenological activity of adult beetles, habitat preferences and impact of future climate change for both subspecies separately. The results clearly show that spp. clavipes and ssp. puniceus can be characterized by differences in phenology and macrohabitat preferences, and their ranges do not overlap at any point. Spp. clavipes is found as more opportunistic taxon occurring in different forests as well as in urban and agricultural areas with tree vegetation always in elevations below 500 m, while elevational distribution of ssp. puniceus covers areas up to 2300 m, and the beetle was observed mainly in forested areas. Moreover, we expect that climate warming will have negative influence on both subspecies with the possible loss of proper niches at level even up to 47-70% of their actual ranges during next few decades. As the species is actually recognized as unthreatened and always co-occurs with many other species, we suggest, because of its expected future habitat loss, to pay more attention to conservationists for possible negative changes in saproxylic insects and/or forest fauna in North America. In addition, as our results clearly show that both subspecies of C. clavipes differ ecologically, which strongly supports earlier significant morphological and physiological differences noted between them, we suggest that their taxonomical status should be verified by molecular data, because very probably they represent separate species.}, }
@article {pmid33924246, year = {2021}, author = {Leggieri, MC and Toscano, P and Battilani, P}, title = {Predicted Aflatoxin B1 Increase in Europe Due to Climate Change: Actions and Reactions at Global Level.}, journal = {Toxins}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {33924246}, issn = {2072-6651}, mesh = {Aflatoxin B1/*analysis ; Animal Feed/microbiology ; Animals ; Aspergillus flavus/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Food Microbiology ; Food Supply ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Zea mays/growth &amp; development/*microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is predicted to increase the risk of aflatoxin (AF) contamination in maize, as highlighted by a project supported by EFSA in 2009. We performed a comprehensive literature search using the Scopus search engine to extract peer-reviewed studies citing this study. A total of 224 papers were identified after step I filtering (187 + 37), while step II filtering identified 25 of these papers for quantitative analysis. The unselected papers (199) were categorized as "actions" because they provided a sounding board for the expected impact of CC on AFB1 contamination, without adding new data on the topic. The remaining papers were considered as "reactions" of the scientific community because they went a step further in their data and ideas. Interesting statements taken from the "reactions" could be summarized with the following keywords: Chain and multi-actor approach, intersectoral and multidisciplinary, resilience, human and animal health, and global vision. In addition, fields meriting increased research efforts were summarized as the improvement of predictive modeling; extension to different crops and geographic areas; and the impact of CC on fungi and mycotoxin co-occurrence, both in crops and their value chains, up to consumers.}, }
@article {pmid33923588, year = {2021}, author = {Dos Santos, DG and Coelho, CCS and Ferreira, ABR and Freitas-Silva, O}, title = {Brazilian Coffee Production and the Future Microbiome and Mycotoxin Profile Considering the Climate Change Scenario.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {33923588}, issn = {2076-2607}, support = {311936/2018-0//CNPq/ ; E-26.202.749/2018; E-26/202.187/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro/ ; }, abstract = {Brazil holds a series of favorable climatic conditions for agricultural production including the hours and intensity of sunlight, the availability of agricultural land and water resources, as well as diverse climates, soils and biomes. Amidst such diversity, Brazilian coffee producers have obtained various standards of qualities and aromas, between the arabica and robusta species, which each present a wide variety of lineages. However, temperatures in coffee producing municipalities in Brazil have increased by about 0.25 °C per decade and annual precipitation has decreased. Therefore, the agricultural sector may face serious challenges in the upcoming decades due to crop sensitivity to water shortages and thermal stress. Furthermore, higher temperatures may reduce the quality of the culture and increase pressure from pests and diseases, reducing worldwide agricultural production. The impacts of climate change directly affect the coffee microbiota. Within the climate change scenario, aflatoxins, which are more toxic than OTA, may become dominant, promoting greater food insecurity surrounding coffee production. Thus, closer attention on the part of authorities is fundamental to stimulate replacement of areas that are apt for coffee production, in line with changes in climate zoning, in order to avoid scarcity of coffee in the world market.}, }
@article {pmid33922573, year = {2021}, author = {Charlson, F and Ali, S and Benmarhnia, T and Pearl, M and Massazza, A and Augustinavicius, J and Scott, JG}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {33922573}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Floods ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is negatively impacting the mental health of populations. This scoping review aims to assess the available literature related to climate change and mental health across the World Health Organisation's (WHO) five global research priorities for protecting human health from climate change. We conducted a scoping review to identify original research studies related to mental health and climate change using online academic databases. We assessed the quality of studies where appropriate assessment tools were available. We identified 120 original studies published between 2001 and 2020. Most studies were quantitative (n = 67), cross-sectional (n = 42), conducted in high-income countries (n = 87), and concerned with the first of the WHO global research priorities-assessing the mental health risks associated with climate change (n = 101). Several climate-related exposures, including heat, humidity, rainfall, drought, wildfires, and floods were associated with psychological distress, worsened mental health, and higher mortality among people with pre-existing mental health conditions, increased psychiatric hospitalisations, and heightened suicide rates. Few studies (n = 19) addressed the other four global research priorities of protecting health from climate change (effective interventions (n = 8); mitigation and adaptation (n = 7); improving decision-support (n = 3); and cost estimations (n = 1)). While climate change and mental health represents a rapidly growing area of research, it needs to accelerate and broaden in scope to respond with evidence-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid33921966, year = {2021}, author = {Santos-Guzman, J and Gonzalez-Salazar, F and Martínez-Ozuna, G and Jimenez, V and Luviano, A and Palazuelos, D and Fernandez-Flores, RI and Manzano-Camarillo, M and Picazzo-Palencia, E and Gasca-Sanchez, F and Mejia-Velazquez, GM}, title = {Epidemiologic Impacts in Acute Infectious Disease Associated with Catastrophic Climate Events Related to Global Warming in the Northeast of Mexico.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {33921966}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; Floods ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Mexico/epidemiology ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Rising global temperatures and seawater temperatures have led to an increase in extreme weather patterns leading to droughts and floods. These natural phenomena, in turn, affect the supply of drinking water in some communities, which causes an increase in the prevalence of diseases related to the supply of drinking water. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the effects of global warming on human health in the population of Monterrey, Mexico after Hurricane Alex. We interpolated data using statistical downscaling of climate projection data for 2050 and 2080 and correlated it with disease occurrence. We found a remarkable rise in the incidence of transmissible infectious disease symptoms. Gastrointestinal symptoms predominated and were associated with drinking of contaminated water like tap water or water from communal mobile water tanks, probably because of the contamination of clean water, the disruption of water sanitation, and the inability to maintain home hygiene practices.}, }
@article {pmid33921529, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, C and Van der Fels-Klerx, HJ}, title = {Quantitative Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Mycotoxins in Cereals: A Review.}, journal = {Toxins}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {33921529}, issn = {2072-6651}, support = {KB-34-003-1C//Netherlands Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality/ ; }, mesh = {Animal Feed/*microbiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Edible Grain/growth &amp; development/*microbiology ; Food Chain ; *Food Microbiology ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Mycotoxins/*analysis ; Risk Assessment ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Our climate is projected to change gradually over time. Mycotoxin occurrence in cereal grains is both directly and indirectly related to local weather and to climate changes. Direct routes are via the effects of precipitation, relative humidity, and temperatures on both fungal infection of the grain and mycotoxin formation. Indirect routes are via the effects of the wind dispersal of spores, insect attacks, and shifts in cereal grain phenology. This review aimed to investigate available modeling studies for climate change impacts on mycotoxins in cereal grains, and to identify how they can be used to safeguard food safety with future climate change. Using a systematic review approach, in total, 53 relevant papers from the period of 2005-2020 were retrieved. Only six of them focused on quantitative modeling of climate change impacts on mycotoxins, all in pre-harvest cereal grains. Although regional differences exist, the model results generally show an increase in mycotoxins in a changing climate. The models do not give an indication on how to adapt to climate change impacts. If available models were linked with land use and crop models, scenario analyses could be used for analyzing adaptation strategies to avoid high mycotoxin presence in cereal grains and to safeguard the safety of our feed and food.}, }
@article {pmid33920863, year = {2021}, author = {Otieno, FT and Gachohi, J and Gikuma-Njuru, P and Kariuki, P and Oyas, H and Canfield, SA and Bett, B and Njenga, MK and Blackburn, JK}, title = {Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {33920863}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Anthrax/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Kenya/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011-2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017-2018), and active surveillance (2019-2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km[2], RCP 4.5, 40,012 km[2], and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km[2]. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.}, }
@article {pmid33920862, year = {2021}, author = {Yu, H and Holopainen, JK and Kivimäenpää, M and Virtanen, A and Blande, JD}, title = {Potential of Climate Change and Herbivory to Affect the Release and Atmospheric Reactions of BVOCs from Boreal and Subarctic Forests.}, journal = {Molecules (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {26}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {33920862}, issn = {1420-3049}, support = {309425//Academy of Finland/ ; Scholarship to Hao Yu//University of Eastern Finland/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Herbivory ; Stress, Physiological/physiology ; Volatile Organic Compounds/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Compared to most other forest ecosystems, circumpolar boreal and subarctic forests have few tree species, and are prone to mass outbreaks of herbivorous insects. A short growing season with long days allows rapid plant growth, which will be stimulated by predicted warming of polar areas. Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) from soil and vegetation could be substantial on sunny and warm days and biotic stress may accelerate emission rates. In the atmosphere, BVOCs are involved in various gas-phase chemical reactions within and above forest canopies. Importantly, the oxidation of BVOCs leads to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. SOA particles scatter and absorb solar radiation and grow to form cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and participate in cloud formation. Through BVOC and moisture release and SOA formation and condensation processes, vegetation has the capacity to affect the abiotic environment at the ecosystem scale. Recent BVOC literature indicates that both temperature and herbivory have a major impact on BVOC emissions released by woody species. Boreal conifer forest is the largest terrestrial biome and could be one of the largest sources of biogenic mono- and sesquiterpene emissions due to the capacity of conifer trees to store terpene-rich resins in resin canals above and belowground. Elevated temperature promotes increased diffusion of BVOCs from resin stores. Moreover, insect damage can break resin canals in needles, bark, and xylem and cause distinctive bursts of BVOCs during outbreaks. In the subarctic, mountain birch forests have cyclic outbreaks of Geometrid moths. During outbreaks, trees are often completely defoliated leading to an absence of BVOC-emitting foliage. However, in the years following an outbreak there is extended shoot growth, a greater number of leaves, and greater density of glandular trichomes that store BVOCs. This can lead to a delayed chemical defense response resulting in the highest BVOC emission rates from subarctic forest in the 1-3 years after an insect outbreak. Climate change is expected to increase insect outbreaks at high latitudes due to warmer seasons and arrivals of invasive herbivore species. Increased BVOC emission will affect tropospheric ozone (O3) formation and O3 induced oxidation of BVOCs. Herbivore-induced BVOC emissions from deciduous and coniferous trees are also likely to increase the formation rate of SOA and further growth of the particles in the atmosphere. Field experiments measuring the BVOC emission rates, SOA formation rate and particle concentrations within and above the herbivore attacked forest stands are still urgently needed.}, }
@article {pmid33920507, year = {2021}, author = {Wright, CY and Moore, CE and Chersich, M and Hester, R and Nayna Schwerdtle, P and Mbayo, GK and Akong, CN and Butler, CD}, title = {A Transdisciplinary Approach to Address Climate Change Adaptation for Human Health and Well-Being in Africa.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {33920507}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Africa ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {The health sector response to dealing with the impacts of climate change on human health, whether mitigative or adaptive, is influenced by multiple factors and necessitates creative approaches drawing on resources across multiple sectors. This short communication presents the context in which adaptation to protect human health has been addressed to date and argues for a holistic, transdisciplinary, multisectoral and systems approach going forward. Such a novel health-climate approach requires broad thinking regarding geographies, ecologies and socio-economic policies, and demands that one prioritises services for vulnerable populations at higher risk. Actions to engage more sectors and systems in comprehensive health-climate governance are identified. Much like the World Health Organization's 'Health in All Policies' approach, one should think health governance and climate change together in a transnational framework as a matter not only of health promotion and disease prevention, but of population security. In an African context, there is a need for continued cross-border efforts, through partnerships, blending climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction, and long-term international financing, to contribute towards meeting sustainable development imperatives.}, }
@article {pmid33919038, year = {2021}, author = {Yan, M and Xue, M and Zhang, L and Tian, X and Chen, B and Dong, Y}, title = {A Decade's Change in Vegetation Productivity and Its Response to Climate Change over Northeast China.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {33919038}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {41901364//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41871279//the National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {In this study, we simulated vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) using the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) between 2003 and 2012 over Northeast China, a region that is significantly affected by climate change. The NPP was then validated against the measurements that were calculated from tree ring data, with a determination coefficient (R[2]) = 0.84 and the root mean square error (RMSE) = 42.73 gC/m[2]·a. Overall, the NPP showed an increasing trend over Northeast China, with the average rate being 4.48 gC/m[2]·a. Subsequently, partial correlation and lag analysis were conducted between the NPP and climatic factors. The partial correlation analysis suggested that temperature was the predominant factor that accounted for changes in the forest NPP. Solar radiation was the main factor that affected the forest NPP, and the grass NPP was the most closely associated with precipitation. The relative humidity substantially affected the annual variability of the shrub and crop NPPs. The lag time of the NPP related to precipitation increased with the vegetation growth, and it was found that the lag period of the forest was longer than that of grass and crops, whereas the cumulative lag month of the forest was shorter. This comprehensive analysis of the response of the vegetation NPP to climate change can provide scientific references for the managing departments that oversee relevant resources.}, }
@article {pmid33915462, year = {2021}, author = {Palomo-Vélez, G and van Vugt, M}, title = {The evolutionary psychology of climate change behaviors: Insights and applications.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {54-59}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.03.006}, pmid = {33915462}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Motivation ; Problem Solving ; Social Behavior ; }, abstract = {We examine climate-related activities through an evolutionary psychology lens, zooming in on factors that motivate or discourage people to behave sustainably to mitigate climate change. Complementing current knowledge, we discuss five core ancestral psychological motivations that shape people's environmental decisions in fundamental ways. We review recent studies that explore how evolved psychological mechanisms related to self-interest, status, sensing, discounting tendencies, and social imitation can be used to promote proenvironmental behavior. We discuss the potential strengths and limitations of evolutionary-based behavioral interventions and briefly reflect on outstanding research questions that can further the integration of evolutionary approaches into mainstream environmental psychology.}, }
@article {pmid33915087, year = {2021}, author = {Wu, Y and Wen, B and Li, S and Guo, Y}, title = {Sand and dust storms in Asia: a call for global cooperation on climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {6}, pages = {e329-e330}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00082-6}, pmid = {33915087}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; Asia ; Climate Change ; Dust/analysis ; *Sand ; }, }
@article {pmid33914854, year = {2021}, author = {Nnadi, NE and Carter, DA}, title = {Climate change and the emergence of fungal pathogens.}, journal = {PLoS pathogens}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {e1009503}, pmid = {33914854}, issn = {1553-7374}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*microbiology ; Environment ; Fungi/*pathogenicity ; Humans ; Mycoses/*microbiology ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; Plants/*microbiology ; Virulence ; }, }
@article {pmid33914168, year = {2021}, author = {Jiao, L and Xue, R and Qi, C and Chen, K and Liu, X}, title = {Comparison of the responses of radial growth to climate change for two dominant coniferous tree species in the eastern Qilian Mountains, northwestern China.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {65}, number = {11}, pages = {1823-1836}, pmid = {33914168}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {41861006//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2020-KF-04//State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology/ ; NWNU-LKQN2019-4//Research Ability Promotion Program for Young Teachers of Northwest Normal University/ ; }, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Picea ; *Tracheophyta ; }, abstract = {The temperature in northwestern China has increased significantly since the 1990s. However, the responses of mountainous forests to warming have not been extensively examined. We collected tree rings of two dominant coniferous species of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) and Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) in the eastern part of the Qilian Mountains, and analyzed the differences in the response dynamic of the radial growth of two species to climate change. The results showed that (1) the annual radial growth of Qinghai spruce was mainly restricted by the minimum temperature in July and October, and the growth of Chinese pine was mainly restricted by the mean temperature in September of the previous year, January, and July and the maximum temperature in March, May, and July. In particular, Qinghai spruce increased its sensitivity to total precipitation in the growing seasons in March, May, and July after the temperature abruptly increased. (2) In comparison to Qinghai spruce, Chinese pine showed a consistent response to the main climatic factors and was more severely affected by drought stress. Qinghai spruce had divergent responses to mean temperatures in March and May and minimum temperatures in April and June. (3) The growth of Qinghai spruce increased with a significant fluctuation at the end of the twentieth century, while the growth of Chinese pine first showed an increase and then a significant decreasing trend. At present, the increase in temperature has adversely affected the growth of Chinese pine in the eastern Qilian Mountains and promoted the growth of Qinghai spruce. However, a continuous temperature increase could negatively affect the growth of Qinghai spruce because of the increasing probability of drought stress. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the growth dynamics of Qinghai spruce, especially with the different water supply and demand, and to the effects of drought on Chinese pine in forest ecosystems in arid and semiarid areas.}, }
@article {pmid33912070, year = {2021}, author = {Strapazzon, G and Schweizer, J and Chiambretti, I and Brodmann Maeder, M and Brugger, H and Zafren, K}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Avalanche Accidents and Survival.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {639433}, pmid = {33912070}, issn = {1664-042X}, abstract = {Avalanches are major natural hazards in snow-covered mountains, threatening people and infrastructure. With ongoing climate change, the frequency and types of snow avalanches may change, affecting the rates of avalanche burial and survival. With a wetter and warmer snow climate, consequences of burial may become more severe. In this review, we assess the potential effects of climate change on the frequency and characteristics of avalanches. We then discuss how these changes might affect the survival rates of subjects buried by avalanches and might influence the responses of search and rescue (SAR) teams and health care providers. While climate change is inevitable, the effects on avalanches remain elusive. The frequency of human triggered avalanches may not change, because this depends largely on the number and behavior of winter recreationists. Blunt trauma and secondary injuries will likely become more frequent as terrain roughness is expected to rise and snow cover to become thinner. Higher snow densities in avalanche debris will likely interfere with the respiration of completely buried victims. Asphyxia and trauma, as causes of avalanche death, may increase. It is unlikely that SAR and health care providers involved in avalanche rescue will have to change their strategies in areas where they are already established. The effects of climate change might foster the expansion of mitigation strategies and the establishment of mountain rescue services in areas subject to increased avalanche hazards caused by changes in snow cover and land use.}, }
@article {pmid33911951, year = {2021}, author = {Karar, H and Bashir, MA and Basit, A and Atta, S and Anjum, AA and Bakhsh, A and Hussain, A and Hameed, A and Wang, Y and Alajmi, RA and Metwally, DM and Imran, M}, title = {Effect of host plant on cornucopia of mango fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) and their triumphant management in context of climate change.}, journal = {Saudi journal of biological sciences}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {2366-2373}, doi = {10.1016/j.sjbs.2021.01.033}, pmid = {33911951}, issn = {1319-562X}, abstract = {A study was performed to assess the preference of fourteen mango cultivars for fruit flies and their management by bagging. So the choice of Tephritid flies to mango cultivars during fruiting phase is crucial. Fourteen different cultivars of mango viz., 'Dusehri', 'Malda', 'Langra' early cultivars, 'Chaunsa', 'Fajri Klan', 'Sensation' medium whereas 'Sanglakhi', 'Retaul-12', 'Mehmood Khan', 'Tukhmi', 'Kala Chaunsa', 'Chitta Chaunsa', 'Dai Wala' and 'Sobey De Ting' late cultivars were assessed for their suitability for fruit flies. The results indicate that the population density of fruit flies was higher on late cultivars like 'Sanglakhi' (20.61 percent), 'Mehmood Khan' (20.22 percent) and 'Reutal-12' (19.92 percent) were proved to be highly susceptible to fruit flies. Among these the cultivar 'Reutal-12' was selected being commercial and future cultivar for the management of fruit flies through bagging. The results reported that the attack of tephritid fruit flies and other insect pests were zero in bagged fruits as compared with control. It was further recorded that the bagged fruits has maximum average fruit weight i.e. 203.50 and 197.83 g per fruit was noted in those treatments where butter paper bag and brown paper bag was wrapped with better coloration as compared with un-bagged fruit with 159.5 g per fruit. Similarly, on an average fruit length were more i.e. 90.17, 91.33 mm in bagged fruit and 85.33 in un-bagged fruits. Furthermore, bagged fruits have zero incidence of disease with reduced fruit crack, fruit sunburn, mechanical damage, bird damage, fruit blemished and agrochemical residues on the fruit. So, it is concluded that the special attention should be given on 'Reutal-12' for the management of fruit flies when devising an IPM program for the control of fruit flies. Further, bagging has proved to be the good agricultural practices for the production of quality mango.}, }
@article {pmid33911920, year = {2021}, author = {Nasser, M and Okely, M and Nasif, O and Alharbi, S and GadAllah, S and Al-Obaid, S and Enan, R and Bala, M and Al-Ashaal, S}, title = {Spatio-temporal analysis of Egyptian flower mantis Blepharopsis mendica (order: mantodea), with notes of its future status under climate change.}, journal = {Saudi journal of biological sciences}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {2049-2055}, pmid = {33911920}, issn = {1319-562X}, abstract = {Egyptian flower mantis Blepharopsis mendica (Order: Mantodea) is a widespread mantis species throughout the southwest Palearctic region. The ecological and geographical distribution of such interesting species is rarely known. So, through this work, habitat suitability models for its distribution through Egyptian territory were created using MaxEnt software from 90 occurrence records. One topographic (altitude) and eleven bioclimatic variables influencing the species distribution were selected to generate the models. The predicted distribution in Egypt was focused on the Delta, South Sinai, the north-eastern part of the country, and some areas in the west including Siwa Oasis. Temporal analysis between the two periods (1900-1961) and (1961-2017) show current reduction of this species distribution through Delta and its surrounding areas, may be due to urbanization. On the other hand, it increases in newly protected areas of South Sinai. Under the future climate change scenario, the MaxEnt model predicted the habitat gains for B. mendica in RCP 2.6 for 2070 and loss of habitat in RCP 8.5 for the same year. Our results can be used as a basis for conserving this species not only in Egypt, but also throughout the whole of its range, also, it show how the using of geo-information could help in studying animal ecology.}, }
@article {pmid33911088, year = {2021}, author = {Henna, K and Saifudeen, A and Mani, M}, title = {Resilience of vernacular and modernising dwellings in three climatic zones to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {9172}, pmid = {33911088}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change impacts buildings in multiple ways, including extreme weather events and thermal stresses. Rural India comprising 65% of the population is characterised by vernacular dwellings evolved over time to passively regulate and maintain comfortable indoors. Increasing modernization in rural habitations (transitions) evident from the ingress of modern materials and electro-mechanical appliances undermines the ability of building envelopes to passively regulate and maintain comfortable indoors. While such trends are deemed good for the economy, their underlying implications in terms of climate change have not been adequately examined. The current study evaluates the climate-resilience of vernacular dwellings and those undergoing transitions in response to three climate-change scenarios, viz, A1B (rapid economic growth fuelled by balanced use of energy sources), A2 (regionally sensitive economic development) and B1 (structured economic growth and adoption of clean and resource efficient technologies). The study examines dwellings characteristic to three rural settlements representing three major climate zones in India and involves both real-time monitoring and simulation-based investigation. The study is novel in investigating the impact of climate change on indoor thermal comfort in rural dwellings, adopting vernacular and modern materials. The study revealed higher resilience of vernacular dwellings in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33910112, year = {2021}, author = {Van Lange, PAM and Huckelba, AL}, title = {Psychological distance: How to make climate change less abstract and closer to the self.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {49-53}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.03.011}, pmid = {33910112}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Psychological Distance ; }, abstract = {Scientists have been warning the world of the threatening consequences of climate change for decades. Yet, only a few countries have made climate change mitigation a priority. One of the chief issues regarding climate change is its abstractness: consequences for the collective in the long-term are much more abstract than consequences for the self in the here-and-now. To combat climate change, individuals, communities, and governments must work together to reduce the psychological distance of climate change and designate the future of the planet as the prime concern.}, }
@article {pmid33909871, year = {2021}, author = {Palmeiro-Silva, YK and Ferrada, MT and Flores, JR and Cruz, ISS}, title = {Climate change and environmental health in undergraduate health degrees in Latin America.}, journal = {Revista de saude publica}, volume = {55}, number = {}, pages = {17}, pmid = {33909871}, issn = {1518-8787}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; Latin America ; *Universities ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Analyze the incorporation of climate change and environmental health courses in the curriculum grids of Medicine, Nursing, Nutrition and Clinical Psychology undergraduate courses in Latin American universities.<br><br>METHODS: Descriptive and cross-sectional document review. Curriculum grids of the top ten Latin American universities were analyzed according to the rankings of QS Latin American University 2020, Times Higher Education World University 2020 and Academic Ranking of World Universities 2019. The presence of courses related to climate change and environmental health was sought in each curriculum grid.<br><br>RESULTS: 104 of the 161 universities included in the study offered Medicine courses, 93 Nursing courses, 77 Nutrition courses and 118 Clinical Psychology courses. Most of the curriculum grids incorporated courses in public health and/or epidemiology (more than 70%); however, between 22% and 41% included courses on environmental health, and only one curriculum grid had a course on climate change in Medicine and Nursing (1%).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Courses on climate change and environmental health have been scarcely introduced in the curriculum grids of the health field in Latin American universities. This could weaken the important role that health professionals play in providing health care to the population.}, }
@article {pmid33909535, year = {2021}, author = {Sheehan, MC}, title = {Climate Change and Human Well-Being in the 2020s: Lessons From 2020.}, journal = {International journal of health services : planning, administration, evaluation}, volume = {51}, number = {3}, pages = {281-286}, doi = {10.1177/00207314211012155}, pmid = {33909535}, issn = {1541-4469}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/organization &amp; administration ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Behind the coronavirus headlines the year 2020 set multiple extreme weather records, including unprecedented wildfires in Australia and California, massive flooding in China, and back-to-back hurricanes in Central America. The impacts on the well-being of local populations have been devastating. We reviewed these extreme weather events, together with the year's newly published climate and health science reports, and identified three important themes for building health resilience in the decade ahead: (1) preparing for greater magnitude and intensity of climate hazards, extreme events, and population health impacts; (2) better anticipating cascading and compound impacts on population well-being, particularly for the most vulnerable; and (3) identifying appropriate, effective preparedness tools and strategies. While decarbonizing the economy is the urgent goal to protect both human and planetary health from a changing climate, 2020 demonstrates that recognizing the likely magnitude and complexity of future extreme weather events, and preparing local public health agencies and communities with the knowledge and tools to respond to them, will be essential in this critical decade.}, }
@article {pmid33908168, year = {2021}, author = {Vitasse, Y and Ursenbacher, S and Klein, G and Bohnenstengel, T and Chittaro, Y and Delestrade, A and Monnerat, C and Rebetez, M and Rixen, C and Strebel, N and Schmidt, BR and Wipf, S and Wohlgemuth, T and Yoccoz, NG and Lenoir, J}, title = {Phenological and elevational shifts of plants, animals and fungi under climate change in the European Alps.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {96}, number = {5}, pages = {1816-1835}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12727}, pmid = {33908168}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Butterflies ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fungi ; *Odonata ; Plants ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Mountain areas are biodiversity hotspots and provide a multitude of ecosystem services of irreplaceable socio-economic value. In the European Alps, air temperature has increased at a rate of about 0.36°C decade[-1] since 1970, leading to glacier retreat and significant snowpack reduction. Due to these rapid environmental changes, this mountainous region is undergoing marked changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution of animals, plants and fungi. Long-term monitoring in the European Alps offers an excellent natural laboratory to synthetize climate-related changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution for a large array of taxonomic groups. This review assesses the climatic changes that have occurred across the European Alps during recent decades, spring phenological changes and upslope shifts of plants, animals and fungi from evidence in published papers and previously unpublished data. Our review provides evidence that spring phenology has been shifting earlier during the past four decades and distribution ranges show an upwards trend for most of the taxonomic groups for which there are sufficient data. The first observed activity of reptiles and terrestrial insects (e.g. butterflies) in spring has shifted significantly earlier, at an average rate of -5.7 and -6.0 days decade[-1] , respectively. By contrast, the first observed spring activity of semi-aquatic insects (e.g. dragonflies and damselflies) and amphibians, as well as the singing activity or laying dates of resident birds, show smaller non-significant trends ranging from -1.0 to +1.3 days decade[-1] . Leaf-out and flowering of woody and herbaceous plants showed intermediate trends with mean values of -2.4 and -2.8 days decade[-1] , respectively. Regarding species distribution, plants, animals and fungi (N = 2133 species) shifted the elevation of maximum abundance (optimum elevation) upslope at a similar pace (on average between +18 and +25 m decade[-1]) but with substantial differences among taxa. For example, the optimum elevation shifted upward by +36.2 m decade[-1] for terrestrial insects and +32.7 m decade[-1] for woody plants, whereas it was estimated to range between -1.0 and +11 m decade[-1] for semi-aquatic insects, ferns, birds and wood-decaying fungi. The upper range limit (leading edge) of most species also shifted upslope with a rate clearly higher for animals (from +47 to +91 m decade[-1]) than for plants (from +17 to +40 m decade[-1]), except for semi-aquatic insects (-4.7 m decade[-1]). Although regional land-use changes could partly explain some trends, the consistent upward shift found in almost all taxa all over the Alps is likely reflecting the strong warming and the receding of snow cover that has taken place across the European Alps over recent decades. However, with the possible exception of terrestrial insects, the upward shift of organisms seems currently too slow to track the pace of isotherm shifts induced by climate warming, estimated at about +62 to +71 m decade[-1] since 1970. In the light of these results, species interactions are likely to change over multiple trophic levels through phenological and spatial mismatches. This nascent research field deserves greater attention to allow us to anticipate structural and functional changes better at the ecosystem level.}, }
@article {pmid33903650, year = {2021}, author = {Tofa, AI and Kamara, AY and Babaji, BA and Akinseye, FM and Bebeley, JF}, title = {Assessing the use of a drought-tolerant variety as adaptation strategy for maize production under climate change in the savannas of Nigeria.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {8983}, pmid = {33903650}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Decision Support System for Agricultural Technology Transfer (DSSAT) was used to quantify the impact of climate change on maize yield and the potential benefits of the use of drought-tolerant maize variety over non-drought tolerant variety in savanna ecological zones of Nigeria. Projections of maize yields were estimated for three locations representing different agro-climatic zones and soil conditions, in the mid-century (2040-2069) and end-century (2070-2099) under representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) against the baseline period (1980-2009). Relative to the baseline period, the ensemble Global Circulation Models (GCMs) predicted significant increase in minimum and maximum temperatures and seasonal rainfall across the sites. In the mid-century, ensemble GCMs predicted temperatures increase between 1.7-2.4 °C for RCP4.5 and 2.2-2.9 °C for RCP8.5. By end-century, the temperature increases between 2.2-3.0 °C under RCP4.5 and 3.9-5.0 °C under RCP8.5. Predicted seasonal rainfall increase between 1.2-7% for RCP4.5 and 0.03-10.6% for RCP8.5 in the mid-century. By end of century, rainfall is expected to increase between 2-6.7% for RCP4.5 and 3.3-20.1% for RCP8.5. The DSSAT model predictions indicated a negative impact on maize yield in all the selected sites, but the degree of the impact varies with variety and location. In the mid-century, the results showed that the yield of the non-drought tolerant maize variety, SAMMAZ-16 will decline by 13-19% under RCP4.5 and 19-28% under RCP8.5. The projection by end-century indicates a decline in yield by 18-26% under RCP4.5 and 38-47% under RCP8.5. The yield of the drought-tolerant variety is projected to decline by 9-18% for RCP4.5 and 14-25% for RCP8.5 in the mid-century and 13-23% under RCP4.5 and 32-43% under RCP8.5 by the end-century. The higher temperatures by both emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were primarily shown to cause more yield losses for non-drought-tolerant variety than that of the drought-tolerant variety. There will be 1-6% less reduction in yield when drought-tolerant variety is used. However, the higher yield reductions in the range of - 13 to - 43% predicted for the drought-tolerant variety by the end of the century across the study areas highlighted the need to modify the maize breeding scheme to combine both tolerances to drought and heat stresses in the agro-ecological zones of northern Nigeria.}, }
@article {pmid33903233, year = {2021}, author = {Antell, GT and Fenton, IS and Valdes, PJ and Saupe, EE}, title = {Thermal niches of planktonic foraminifera are static throughout glacial-interglacial climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {33903233}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; *Biological Evolution ; Climate Change ; *Climate Models ; Ecosystem ; Foraminifera/genetics/*physiology ; Fossils ; Humans ; Plankton/*physiology ; Seawater/microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Abiotic niche lability reduces extinction risk by allowing species to adapt to changing environmental conditions in situ. In contrast, species with static niches must keep pace with the velocity of climate change as they track suitable habitat. The rate and frequency of niche lability have been studied on human timescales (months to decades) and geological timescales (millions of years), but lability on intermediate timescales (millennia) remains largely uninvestigated. Here, we quantified abiotic niche lability at 8-ka resolution across the last 700 ka of glacial-interglacial climate fluctuations, using the exceptionally well-known fossil record of planktonic foraminifera coupled with Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model reconstructions of paleoclimate. We tracked foraminiferal niches through time along the univariate axis of mean annual temperature, measured both at the sea surface and at species' depth habitats. Species' temperature preferences were uncoupled from the global temperature regime, undermining a hypothesis of local adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, intraspecific niches were equally similar through time, regardless of climate change magnitude on short timescales (8 ka) and across contrasts of glacial and interglacial extremes. Evolutionary trait models fitted to time series of occupied temperature values supported widespread niche stasis above randomly wandering or directional change. Ecotype explained little variation in species-level differences in niche lability after accounting for evolutionary relatedness. Together, these results suggest that warming and ocean acidification over the next hundreds to thousands of years could redistribute and reduce populations of foraminifera and other calcifying plankton, which are primary components of marine food webs and biogeochemical cycles.}, }
@article {pmid33901443, year = {2021}, author = {Haque, MM and Biswas, JC}, title = {Emission factors and global warming potential as influenced by fertilizer management for the cultivation of rice under varied growing seasons.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {197}, number = {}, pages = {111156}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.111156}, pmid = {33901443}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Fertilizers ; Global Warming ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide ; *Oryza ; Seasons ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from paddy fields are intensified during rice production, and are generally reported based on single or double cropping. It needs to be known how emission factors, GHG emission patterns, and global warming potential are affected by growing three rice crops yearly under the principle of integrated plant nutrient system fertilization (IPNSF). Cowdung and vermicompost were used as IPNSF and compared with commercial fertilization alone. A static close chamber technique was used to measure GHG emissions. The peak periods of CH4 emissions were 20-37, 22-42, and 19-38 days after transplanting during dry, wet, and premonsoon seasons, respectively. The use of cow dung significantly enhanced total N2O, CH4, and CO2 fluxes by 5-10%, 15-23%, and 9-20%, respectively, compared to vermicompost. CH4 emissions for each kg grain production were 39-80, 45-63, and 43-57 gm in the dry, premonsoon, and wet seasons, respectively. Vermicompost significantly reduced CH4, CO2, and N2O fluxes by 13-19%, 17-21%, and 4-9%, respectively, along with a reduction in GHG emission factors by 8-17% and global warming potential by 13-17% compared to cow dung. Moreover, vermicompost and cow dung significantly improved rice grain yields in all three growing seasons compared to commercial fertilizer alone. In conclusion, the use of vermicompost as an IPNSF could be a viable technique for improving grain yield and for reducing GHG emissions from paddy fields during year-round rice cultivation.}, }
@article {pmid33898829, year = {2021}, author = {Alvi, S and Roson, R and Sartori, M and Jamil, F}, title = {An integrated assessment model for food security under climate change for South Asia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {e06707}, pmid = {33898829}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The present study develops an integrated assessment model (IAM) for food security under climate change for South Asia. For IAM, initially, an econometric model is estimated that identifies the impact of climate change on crop yields, using the historical relationships between temperature, precipitation, and the production of cereals. Subsequently, future projections have been collected for temperature and precipitation from climate models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the previous econometric model is applied to obtain the implied future cereal yields changes. Then, the yield variations are fed into a multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, calibrated to the GTAP 9 database, taking the form of decreases in factor-augmenting productivity of the grains sector. Further, the present study evaluates the effects of climate change on an individual South Asian country. The results indicate that change in climate decreases food production, increases food prices, decreases food consumption, and thus affects the welfare. Trade and fiscal policy responses are investigated to combat the problem of food security. It is revealed that these two policies fail to compensate climate change damage in all the selected South Asian countries.}, }
@article {pmid33897807, year = {2020}, author = {Jarmul, S and Dangour, AD and Green, R and Liew, Z and Haines, A and Scheelbeek, PF}, title = {Climate change mitigation through dietary change: a systematic review of empirical and modelling studies on the environmental footprints and health effects of 'sustainable diets'.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {123014}, pmid = {33897807}, issn = {1748-9326}, support = {205200/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The adoption of healthy diets with low environmental impact has been widely promoted as an important climate change mitigation strategy. Typically, these diets are high in plant-sourced and low in animal-sourced and processed foods. Despite the fact that their environmental impacts vary, they are often referred to as 'sustainable diets'. Here we systematically review the available published evidence on the effect of 'sustainable diets' on environmental footprints and human health. Eight databases (OvidSP-Medline, OvidSP-Embase, EBSCO-GreenFILE, Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus, OvidSP-CAB-Abstracts, OvidSP-AGRIS, and OvidSP-Global Health) were searched to identify literature (published 1999-2019) reporting health effects and environmental footprints of 'sustainable diets'. Available evidence was mapped and pooled analysis was conducted by unique combinations of diet pattern, health and environmental outcome. Eighteen studies (412 measurements) met our inclusion criteria, distinguishing twelve non-mutually exclusive sustainable diet patterns, six environmental outcomes, and seven health outcomes. In 87% of measurements (n = 151) positive health outcomes were reported from 'sustainable diets' (average relative health improvement: 4.09% [95% CI -0.10-8.29]) when comparing 'sustainable diets' to current/baseline consumption patterns. Greenhouse gas emissions associated with 'sustainable diets' were on average 25.8%[95%CI -27.0 to -14.6] lower than current/baseline consumption patterns, with vegan diets reporting the largest reduction in GHG-emissions (-70.3% [95% CI: -90.2 to -50.4]), however, water use was frequently reported to be higher than current/baseline diets. Multiple benefits for both health and the environment were reported in the majority (n = 315[76%]) of measurements. We identified consistent evidence of both positive health effects and reduced environmental footprints accruing from 'sustainable diets'. The notable exception of increased water use associated with 'sustainable diets' identifies that co-benefits are not universal and some trade-offs are likely. When carefully designed, evidence-based, and adapted to contextual factors, dietary change could play a pivotal role in climate change mitigation, sustainable food systems, and future population health.}, }
@article {pmid33896082, year = {2021}, author = {Singer, MC and Parmesan, C}, title = {Colonizations cause diversification of host preferences: A mechanism explaining increased generalization at range boundaries expanding under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {15}, pages = {3505-3518}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15656}, pmid = {33896082}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Butterflies ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; }, abstract = {As species' poleward range limits expand under climate change, generalists are expected to be better colonists than specialists, extending their ranges faster. This effect of specialization on range shifts has been shown, but so has the reverse cause-effect: in a global meta-analysis of butterfly diets, it was range expansions themselves that caused increases in population-level diet breadth. What could drive this unexpected process? We provide a novel behavioral mechanism by showing that, in a butterfly with extensive ecotypic variation, Edith's checkerspot, diet breadths increased after colonization events as diversification of individual host preferences pulled novel hosts into population diets. Subsequently, populations that persisted reverted toward monophagy. We draw together three lines of evidence from long-term studies of 15 independently evolving populations. First, direct observations showed a significant increase in specialization across decades: in recent censuses, eight populations used fewer host genera than in the 1980s while none used more. Second, behavioral preference-testing experiments showed that extinctions and recolonizations at two sites were followed, at first by diversification of heritable preference ranks and increases in diet breadth, and subsequently by homogenization of preferences and contractions of diet breadth. Third, we found a significant negative association in the 1980s between population-level diet breadth and genetic diversity. Populations with fewer mtDNA haplotypes had broader diets, extending to 3-4 host genera, while those with higher haplotype diversity were more specialized. We infer that diet breadth had increased in younger, recently colonized populations. Preference diversification after colonization events, whether caused by (cryptic) host shifts or by release of cryptic genetic variation after population bottlenecks, provides a mechanism for known effects of range shifts on diet specialization. Our results explain how colonizations at expanding range margins have increased population-level diet breadths, and predict that increasing specialization should accompany population persistence as current range edges become range interiors.}, }
@article {pmid33895511, year = {2021}, author = {Žydelis, R and Weihermüller, L and Herbst, M}, title = {Future climate change will accelerate maize phenological development and increase yield in the Nemoral climate.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {784}, number = {}, pages = {147175}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147175}, pmid = {33895511}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Lithuania ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Climate change will bring warmer and wetter conditions and more frequent extreme events in the Nemoral climate zone. These changes are expected to affect maize growth and yields. In this study, we applied the AgroC model to assess climate change impact on changes in growing environmental conditions, growing season length, yield and potential yield losses due to multiple abiotic stresses. The model was calibrated and validated using data from dedicated field experiments conducted in Lithuania during four meteorologically contrasting years (2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019). We simulated the climate impacts on rainfed maize for long-term future climate conditions from 2020 to 2100 under the RCP2.6 (low), RCP4.5 (medium) and RCP8.5 (high) emission scenarios. As a result, we found that air temperature, sum of growing degree days and amount of precipitation during the growing season of maize will increase, especially under medium and higher emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), with significantly positive effect on yields. The simulation results showed that average maize grain yield will increase under RCP2.6 by 69 kg ha[-1] per decade, under RCP4.5 by 197 kg ha[-1] per decade and under RCP8.5 by 304 kg ha[-1] per decade. The future potential maize yield reveals a progressive increase with a surplus of +10.2% under RCP4.5 and +14.4% under RCP8.5, while under RCP2.6 the increase of potential yield during the same period will be statistically not significant. The yield gap under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 will fluctuate within a rather narrow range and under RCP8.5, it will decrease.}, }
@article {pmid33895507, year = {2021}, author = {Schneiderbauer, S and Fontanella Pisa, P and Delves, JL and Pedoth, L and Rufat, S and Erschbamer, M and Thaler, T and Carnelli, F and Granados-Chahin, S}, title = {Risk perception of climate change and natural hazards in global mountain regions: A critical review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {784}, number = {}, pages = {146957}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146957}, pmid = {33895507}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Mountains are highly sensitive to climate change. Their elevated areas provide essential ecosystem services both for the surrounding mountainous regions and particularly for adjacent lowlands. Impacts of a warmer climate affect these services and have negative consequences on the supply of water, on biodiversity and on protection from natural hazards. Mountain social-ecological systems are affected by these changes, which also influence communities' risk perception and responses to changing climate conditions. Therefore, to understand individual and societal responses to climate change in mountain areas, aspects and drivers of risk perception need to be scrutinised. This article presents the findings of a literature review of recent English language publications on risk perception in connection to climate change and related natural hazards in mountain regions worldwide. Studies were selected from recorded entries in JSTOR, Science Direct, Scopus and Web of Science covering the period 2000-2019 and analysed in two steps (structured exploratory analysis, n = 249 and in-depth analysis, n = 72) with respect to the studies' research question, methodology, geographical scope and risk perception drivers. The review reveals that socio-demographic factors, like gender, age and personal experiences, have a crucial impact on individual risk perception. Some of the less tangible but nevertheless decisive factors are important in mountain regions such as place attachment and socio-cultural practices. In conclusion, there is however little information in the literature which addresses the specific situation of risk perception in mountain areas and its influence on communities' responses to environmental changes. Further, we observed a strong gap concerning the integration of indigenous knowledge in risk perception research. Many studies overlook or oversimplify local knowledge and the cultural dimensions of risk perception. Based on these results, the paper identifies several gaps in research and knowledge which may influence the design of climate risk management strategies as well as on their successful implementation.}, }
@article {pmid33894612, year = {2021}, author = {Willibald, F and Kotlarski, S and Ebner, PP and Bavay, M and Marty, C and Trentini, FV and Ludwig, R and Grêt-Regamey, A}, title = {Vulnerability of ski tourism towards internal climate variability and climate change in the Swiss Alps.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {784}, number = {}, pages = {147054}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147054}, pmid = {33894612}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Increasing temperatures and snow scarcity pose a serious threat to ski tourism. While the impacts of climate change on ski tourism have been elaborated extensively, little is known so far on the vulnerability of winter tourism towards both internal climate variability and climate change. We use a 50-member single model large ensemble from a regional climate model to drive the physically-based snowpack model SNOWPACK for eight stations across the Swiss Alps to model daily snow depth, incorporating both natural snow conditions and including technical snow production. We make a probabilistic assessment of the vulnerability of ski tourism towards internal climate variability in a future climate by analyzing selected tourism-related snow indicators and find significant overall decrease in snow reliability in the future. Further, we show how the sensitivity towards internal climate variability differs among different tourism-related snow indicators and find that certain indicators are more vulnerable to internal climate variability than others. We show that technical snow production is an appropriate adaptation strategy to tackle risks from climate change and internal climate variability. While technical snow production can drastically reduce uncertainties related to internal climate variability, in low elevations, the technique reaches its limits to counteract global warming by the mid of the century.}, }
@article {pmid33894555, year = {2021}, author = {Pascal, M and Lagarrigue, R and Laaidi, K and Boulanger, G and Denys, S}, title = {Have health inequities, the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change led to the deadliest heatwave in France since 2003?.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {194}, number = {}, pages = {143-145}, pmid = {33894555}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {Aged ; COVID-19/*mortality ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; France/epidemiology ; Healthcare Disparities ; Hospital Mortality ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Infrared Rays ; Middle Aged ; Morbidity ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Between 2015 and 2019, 5700 excess deaths were observed during heatwaves in France. The summer of 2020 combined exceptionally high temperatures with the COVID-19 pandemic. The associated health impacts of this unique situation are described in this study.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: This is an observational study based on indicators of the French heat prevention plan.<br><br>METHODS: Mortality and morbidity data during heatwaves were compared between 2020 and previous years, alongside COVID-19 in-hospital mortality.<br><br>RESULTS: In total, 1921 additional deaths (+18.2%) were observed during the 2020 heatwaves, which is the largest number of deaths observed since 2003. Less than 100 deaths were attributed to COVID-19 during the heatwaves of 2020.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Exceptionally high temperatures driven by climate change, combined with health inequities exacerbated by the COVID-19 outbreak, may have increased vulnerability to heat in 2020.}, }
@article {pmid33893380, year = {2021}, author = {Patel, SH and Winton, MV and Hatch, JM and Haas, HL and Saba, VS and Fay, G and Smolowitz, RJ}, title = {Projected shifts in loggerhead sea turtle thermal habitat in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean due to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {8850}, pmid = {33893380}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; *Turtles ; }, abstract = {It is well established that sea turtles are vulnerable to atmospheric and oceanographic shifts associated with climate change. However, few studies have formally projected how their seasonal marine habitat may shift in response to warming ocean temperatures. Here we used a high-resolution global climate model and a large satellite tagging dataset to project changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for loggerheads along the northeastern continental shelf of the United States. Between 2009 and 2018, we deployed 196 satellite tags on loggerheads within the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) of the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf region, a seasonal foraging area. Tag location data combined with depth and remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) were used to characterize the species' current thermal range in the MAB. The best-fitting model indicated that the habitat envelope for tagged loggerheads consisted of SST ranging from 11.0° to 29.7 °C and depths between 0 and 105.0 m. The calculated core bathythermal range consisted of SSTs between 15.0° and 28.0 °C and depths between 8.0 and 92.0 m, with the highest probability of presence occurred in regions with SST between 17.7° and 25.3 °C and at depths between 26.1 and 74.2 m. This model was then forced by a high-resolution global climate model under a doubling of atmospheric CO2 to project loggerhead probability of presence over the next 80 years. Our results suggest that loggerhead thermal habitat and seasonal duration will likely increase in northern regions of the NW Atlantic shelf. This change in spatiotemporal range for sea turtles in a region of high anthropogenic use may prompt adjustments to the localized protected species conservation measures.}, }
@article {pmid33893318, year = {2021}, author = {Bauersachs, T and Russell, JM and Evans, TW and Schwalb, A and Schwark, L}, title = {A heterocyte glycolipid-based calibration to reconstruct past continental climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {2406}, pmid = {33893318}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Calibration ; *Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/cytology/*metabolism ; Fresh Water/*microbiology ; Geography ; Geologic Sediments/microbiology ; Glycolipids/*metabolism ; Lakes/*microbiology ; Tanzania ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding Earth's response to climate forcing in the geological past is essential to reliably predict future climate change. The reconstruction of continental climates, however, is hampered by the scarcity of universally applicable temperature proxies. Here, we show that heterocyte glycolipids (HGs) of diazotrophic heterocytous cyanobacteria occur ubiquitously in equatorial East African lakes as well as polar to tropical freshwater environments. The relative abundance of HG26 diols and keto-ols, quantified by the heterocyte diol index (HDI26), is significantly correlated with surface water temperature (SWT). The first application of the HDI26 to a ~37,000 year-long sediment record from Lake Tanganyika provides evidence for a ~4.1 °C warming in tropical East Africa from the last glacial to the beginning of the industrial period. Given the worldwide distribution of HGs in lake sediments, the HDI26 may allow reconstructing SWT variations in polar to tropical freshwater environments and thereby quantifying past continental climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33892805, year = {2021}, author = {Abbasi, H}, title = {The effect of climate change on depression in urban areas of western Iran.}, journal = {BMC research notes}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {155}, pmid = {33892805}, issn = {1756-0500}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Depression/epidemiology ; Humans ; Iran/epidemiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Human is accustomed to climatic conditions of the environment where they are born and live throughout their lifetime. The aim of this study is to examine mood swings and depression caused by sudden climate changes that have not yet given the humans a chance to adapt.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results showed that depression could be affected by climate change and as a result, the behavior of climatic elements and trends has damaged mental health in the western regions of Iran. By investigating the trends and changes of climatic time series and their relationship with the rate of depression in urban areas of western Iran, it can be said that climate change is probably a mental health challenge for urban populations. Climate change is an important and worrying issue that makes the life difficult. Rapid climate changes in western Iran including rising air temperature, changes in precipitation, its regime, changes cloudiness and the amount of sunlight have a negative effects on health. The results showed that type of increasing or decreasing trend, as well as different climatic elements in various seasons did not have the same effect on the rate of depression in the studied areas.}, }
@article {pmid33891669, year = {2021}, author = {Cann, TJB and Weaver, IS and Williams, HTP}, title = {Ideological biases in social sharing of online information about climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {4}, pages = {e0250656}, pmid = {33891669}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Information Dissemination ; *Social Media ; Social Network Analysis ; }, abstract = {Exposure to media content is an important component of opinion formation around climate change. Online social media such as Twitter, the focus of this study, provide an avenue to study public engagement and digital media dissemination related to climate change. Sharing a link to an online article is an indicator of media engagement. Aggregated link-sharing forms a network structure which maps collective media engagement by the user population. Here we construct bipartite networks linking Twitter users to the web pages they shared, using a dataset of approximately 5.3 million English-language tweets by almost 2 million users during an eventful seven-week period centred on the announcement of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change. Community detection indicates that the observed information-sharing network can be partitioned into two weakly connected components, representing subsets of articles shared by a group of users. We characterise these partitions through analysis of web domains and text content from shared articles, finding them to be broadly described as a left-wing/environmentalist group and a right-wing/climate sceptic group. Correlation analysis shows a striking positive association between left/right political ideology and environmentalist/sceptic climate ideology respectively. Looking at information-sharing over time, there is considerable turnover in the engaged user population and the articles that are shared, but the web domain sources and polarised network structure are relatively persistent. This study provides evidence that online sharing of news media content related to climate change is both polarised and politicised, with implications for opinion dynamics and public debate around this important societal challenge.}, }
@article {pmid33890323, year = {2021}, author = {Primack, RB and Ellwood, ER and Gallinat, AS and Miller-Rushing, AJ}, title = {The growing and vital role of botanical gardens in climate change research.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {231}, number = {3}, pages = {917-932}, doi = {10.1111/nph.17410}, pmid = {33890323}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Phylogeny ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Botanical gardens make unique contributions to climate change research, conservation, and public engagement. They host unique resources, including diverse collections of plant species growing in natural conditions, historical records, and expert staff, and attract large numbers of visitors and volunteers. Networks of botanical gardens spanning biomes and continents can expand the value of these resources. Over the past decade, research at botanical gardens has advanced our understanding of climate change impacts on plant phenology, physiology, anatomy, and conservation. For example, researchers have utilized botanical garden networks to assess anatomical and functional traits associated with phenological responses to climate change. New methods have enhanced the pace and impact of this research, including phylogenetic and comparative methods, and online databases of herbarium specimens and photographs that allow studies to expand geographically, temporally, and taxonomically in scope. Botanical gardens have grown their community and citizen science programs, informing the public about climate change and monitoring plants more intensively than is possible with garden staff alone. Despite these advances, botanical gardens are still underutilized in climate change research. To address this, we review recent progress and describe promising future directions for research and public engagement at botanical gardens.}, }
@article {pmid33890212, year = {2021}, author = {Guo, H and Nie, X and Shu, T and Li, X and Bai, B}, title = {Global warming potential of typical rural domestic waste treatment modes in China: a case study in Ankang.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {34}, pages = {47149-47161}, pmid = {33890212}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2019YFC1906000//Key Technologies Research and Development Program/ ; }, mesh = {China ; Global Warming ; *Refuse Disposal ; Solid Waste/analysis ; Waste Disposal Facilities ; *Waste Management ; }, abstract = {The global problem of domestic waste management increases with rapid population growth and with economic and urban development. In developing countries, treatment of rural domestic waste (RDW) is distinguished from urban waste. Quantitative assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from RDW disposal treatment is needed to achieve carbon neutrality. Reliable global warming potential (GWP) assessments of RDW are not differentiated in the widely accepted "urban-rural integration" centralized disposal model. We considered five different scenarios for RDW management. Scenario 1 (S1), unsanitary landfill (open-air dump); scenario 2 (S2), sanitary landfill; scenario 3 (S3), incineration; scenario 4 (S4), biological + incineration; and scenario 5 (S5), classification + composting + sanitary landfill + recycling. Life cycle assessment was used for GWP, and sensitivity analysis was calculated to point out the sensitive parameter. We found that the mean GWP ranged from 5.14 × 10[4] to 2.31 × 10[5] kg CO2-equivalents. Pollution from untreated RDW with landfill gas emissions led to large contributions under all scenarios. The collection and transportation ratio was sensitive to all scenarios, and we found that, if the recyclable materials separated at source were not used efficiently, the impact on GWP would be greater than under the unclassified waste scenarios. A "new urban-rural integration" mode (S5) that included household classification, village collection, town transfer, and county and urban disposal was introduced for RDW management. These quantitative results have a great potential for promoting effective RDW management in China and other developing countries.}, }
@article {pmid33889688, year = {2021}, author = {da Cunha, C and Lioubimtseva, E}, title = {Metadata for climate change adaptation plans of small and mid-size French and American cities.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {36}, number = {}, pages = {106981}, pmid = {33889688}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {The present dataset consists of metadata for 36 examples of publicly available multi-issue climate change adaptation plans of small and mid-size urban communities in France and the United States. Compiled by Lioubimtseva and da Cunha [1] as a pilot sample for a comprehensive monitoring and evaluation system developed by the authors, the complete dataset comprises assessment results based on 24 criteria of the plans' structure, content, and development process. To protect information about quality scores of individual planning documents, this published part of our dataset is limited to the essential information about the cities' profiles and their adaptation plans, with plan assessment results presented in Boolean format instead of actual rating scores, and the highlights of the strong points of each plan (instead of the actual quantitative scores generated in our study). The purpose of this dataset is to provide users with references to examples of strong points of the first generation climate adaptation plans developed between 2007 and 2017 in both countries.}, }
@article {pmid33888847, year = {2021}, author = {Mali, SS and Shirsath, PB and Islam, A}, title = {A high-resolution assessment of climate change impact on water footprints of cereal production in India.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {8715}, pmid = {33888847}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Water footprint (WF), a comprehensive indicator of water resources appropriation, has evolved as an efficient tool to improve the management and sustainability of water resources. This study quantifies the blue and green WF of major cereals crops in India using high resolution soil and climatic datasets. A comprehensive modelling framework, consisting of Evapotranspiration based Irrigation Requirement (ETIR) tool, was developed for WF assessment. For assessing climate change impact on WF, multi-model ensemble climate change scenarios were generated using the hybrid-delta ensemble method for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 and future period of 2030s and 2050s. The total WF of the cereal crops are projected to change in the range of - 3.2 to 6.3% under different RCPs in future periods. Although, the national level green and blue WF is projected to change marginally, distinct trends were observed for Kharif (rainy season-June to September) and rabi (winter season-October to February) crops. The blue WF of paddy is likely to decrease by 9.6%, while for wheat it may increase by 4.4% under RCP4.5 during 2050s. The green WF of rabi crops viz. wheat and maize is likely to increase in the range of 20.0 to 24.1% and 9.9 to 16.2%, respectively. This study provides insights into the influences of climate change on future water footprints of crop production and puts forth regional strategies for future water resource management. In view of future variability in the WFs, a water footprint-based optimization for relocation of crop cultivation areas with the aim of minimising the blue water use would be possible management alternative.}, }
@article {pmid33887697, year = {2021}, author = {Christensen, TH and Bisinella, V}, title = {Climate change impacts of introducing carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) in waste incineration.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {126}, number = {}, pages = {754-770}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2021.03.046}, pmid = {33887697}, issn = {1879-2456}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Incineration ; Methane ; Solid Waste/analysis ; }, abstract = {Amending municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) with carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) can simultaneously lower the climate change impacts of incineration and supply carbon for a range of uses. However, life cycle assessment (LCA) shows that technology choices and the benefits of CCU applied to MSWI depend on the energy system in which the MSWI operates throughout its lifetime, and on the markets for the CCU products. Carbon capture reduces up to 50% of the energy recovery of MSWI. We assessed different energy system scenarios, ranging from fossil- to non-fossil based. Direct utilisation of the captured CO2 is beneficial only on a local basis when substituting fossil-based CO2 (-700 kg CO2-eq/tonne waste), with benefits similar to carbon capture and storage. Hydrogenation of CO2 with the purpose of producing feedstock chemicals or fuels such as methane, methanol, dimethyl ether (DME) and formic acid provides much higher benefits (-2000 kg CO2-eq/tonne waste), but only in non-fossil-based energy systems, due to the dramatically high consumption of electricity (more than 6000 kWh/tonne waste). Use as feedstock chemicals provides more benefits than use as fuels, and CCU solutions focusing on methanol and DME are the most promising technologies. Although built on scarce and early-development data, the analysis highlights current crucial issues, at both the technological and system levels, for the future introduction of CCU in MSWI.}, }
@article {pmid33887107, year = {2021}, author = {Apitz, SE}, title = {Science in Service of Society: COVID-19, Climate Change, and the Future.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {495-497}, pmid = {33887107}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, }
@article {pmid33886438, year = {2021}, author = {Bugaj, TJ and Heilborn, M and Terhoeven, V and Kaisinger, S and Nagy, E and Friederich, HC and Nikendei, C}, title = {What do Final Year Medical Students in Germany know and think about Climate Change? - The ClimAttitude Study.}, journal = {Medical education online}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {1917037}, pmid = {33886438}, issn = {1087-2981}, mesh = {Adult ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Germany ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Male ; Students, Medical/*psychology ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is adversely affecting human health and will become far more dangerous in the future, if no substantial measures are taken. Young people in particular are taking an energetic stand for CC awareness. Some CC experts argue that medical doctors are especially well positioned to inform about the impact of CC on public health, as it is well established that they are among the most trusted members of society. However, medical doctors seem to be unsure of their role in addressing CC. This study aimed to investigate future doctors´, i.e., final year medical students´ (FYMS), attitudes towards CC and their personal role in CC education and health care. A questionnaire was developed to examine (1) the expected consequences of CC for FYMS, (2) their perceived individual responsibility, and their attitudes towards an additional (3) professional responsibility. To examine the climate-questionnaire's component correlations, we ran a factor analysis using oblique (promax) rotation and conducted a one-way ANOVA with repeated measures to compare the mean scores of the factors. Data are presented as mean ± SD or percentage, as appropriate. n = 65 FYMS (response rate: 87%) were participating and all of them completed the questionnaire. Items of the factor professional responsibility showed the lowest level of agreement (47.2 ± 21.2), while the 2 other factors showed higher levels of agreement (expected consequences (75.6 ± 18.4), individual responsibility (75.1 ± 20.6). Future doctors at Heidelberg University Hospital are well-informed about the expected health consequences of CC. They recognize human contributions to CC and make personal decisions to mitigate the impact. However, the opinion that they have a professional responsibility as physicians to patients or society in regard to CC is weaker. Specific teaching could help to change the way future doctors see their role and responsibility in tackling CC.}, }
@article {pmid33883708, year = {2021}, author = {Pfeifer, M and Shirima, DD}, title = {African forest maps reveal areas vulnerable to the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {593}, number = {7857}, pages = {42-43}, pmid = {33883708}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Forests ; }, }
@article {pmid33881451, year = {2021}, author = {Kizer, KW}, title = {Wildfire Smoke Pollution, Climate Change, and Skin Disease.}, journal = {JAMA dermatology}, volume = {157}, number = {6}, pages = {639-640}, doi = {10.1001/jamadermatol.2021.0026}, pmid = {33881451}, issn = {2168-6084}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; *Skin Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; Smoke/adverse effects ; *Wildfires ; }, }
@article {pmid33878924, year = {2021}, author = {Caves, EM and Johnsen, S}, title = {The sensory impacts of climate change: bathymetric shifts and visually mediated interactions in aquatic species.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {288}, number = {1949}, pages = {20210396}, pmid = {33878924}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Visual perception is, in part, a function of the ambient illumination spectrum. In aquatic environments, illumination depends upon the water's optical properties and depth, both of which can change due to anthropogenic impacts: turbidity is increasing in many aquatic habitats, and many species have shifted deeper in response to warming surface waters (known as bathymetric shifts). Although increasing turbidity and bathymetric shifts can result in similarly large changes to a species' optical environment, no studies have yet examined the impact of the latter on visually mediated interactions. Here, we examine a potential link between climate change and visual perception, with a focus on colour. We discuss (i) what is known about bathymetric shifts; (ii) how the impacts of bathymetric shifts on visual interactions may be distributed across species; (iii) which interactions might be affected; and (iv) the ways that animals have to respond to these changes. As warming continues and temperature fluctuations grow more extreme, many species may move into even deeper waters. There is thus a need for studies that examine how such shifts can affect an organism's visual world, interfere with behaviour, and impact fitness, population dynamics, and community structure.}, }
@article {pmid33876891, year = {2022}, author = {Charrahy, Z and Yaghoobi-Ershadi, MR and Shirzadi, MR and Akhavan, AA and Rassi, Y and Hosseini, SZ and Webb, NJ and Haque, U and Bozorg Omid, F and Hanafi-Bojd, AA}, title = {Climate change and its effect on the vulnerability to zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran.}, journal = {Transboundary and emerging diseases}, volume = {69}, number = {3}, pages = {1506-1520}, doi = {10.1111/tbed.14115}, pmid = {33876891}, issn = {1865-1682}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors ; Humans ; Iran/epidemiology ; *Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/epidemiology/veterinary ; Zoonoses/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is an important vector-borne disease with an incidence of 15.8 cases per 100,000 people in Iran in 2019. Despite all efforts to control the disease, ZCL has expanded into new areas during the last decades. The aim of this study was to predict the best ecological niches for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL under climate change scenarios in Iran. Several online scientific databases were searched. In this study, various scientific sources (Google Scholar, PubMed, SID, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Irandoc, Magiran) were searched. The inclusion criteria for this study included all records with spatial information about vectors and reservoirs of ZCL which were published between 1980 and 2019. The bioclimatic data were downloaded from online databases. MaxEnt model was used to predict the ecological niches for each species under two climate change scenarios in two periods: the 2030s and 2050s. The results obtained from the model were analysed in ArcMap to find the vulnerability of different provinces for the establishment of ZCL foci. The area under the curve (AUC) for all models was >0.8, which suggests the models are able to make an accurate prediction. The distribution of all studied species in different climatic conditions showed changes. The variables affecting each of the studied species are introduced in the article. The predicted maps show that by 2050 there will be more suitable areas for the co-occurrence of vector and reservoir(s) of ZCL in Iran compared to the current climate condition and RCP2.6 scenario. An area in the northwest of Iran is predicted to have suitable environmental conditions for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL, although the disease has not yet been reported in this area. These areas should be considered for field studies to confirm these results and to prevent the establishment of new ZCL foci in Iran.}, }
@article {pmid33876750, year = {2021}, author = {Chaudhary, C and Richardson, AJ and Schoeman, DS and Costello, MJ}, title = {Global warming is causing a more pronounced dip in marine species richness around the equator.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {33876750}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; *Biodiversity ; Biomass ; *Global Warming ; }, abstract = {The latitudinal gradient in species richness, with more species in the tropics and richness declining with latitude, is widely known and has been assumed to be stable over recent centuries. We analyzed data on 48,661 marine animal species since 1955, accounting for sampling variation, to assess whether the global latitudinal gradient in species richness is being impacted by climate change. We confirm recent studies that show a slight dip in species richness at the equator. Moreover, richness across latitudinal bands was sensitive to temperature, reaching a plateau or declining above a mean annual sea surface temperature of 20 °C for most taxa. In response, since the 1970s, species richness has declined at the equator relative to an increase at midlatitudes and has shifted north in the northern hemisphere, particularly among pelagic species. This pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that climate change is impacting the latitudinal gradient in marine biodiversity at a global scale. The intensification of the dip in species richness at the equator, especially for pelagic species, suggests that it is already too warm there for some species to survive.}, }
@article {pmid33875656, year = {2021}, author = {Woolway, RI and Sharma, S and Weyhenmeyer, GA and Debolskiy, A and Golub, M and Mercado-Bettín, D and Perroud, M and Stepanenko, V and Tan, Z and Grant, L and Ladwig, R and Mesman, J and Moore, TN and Shatwell, T and Vanderkelen, I and Austin, JA and DeGasperi, CL and Dokulil, M and La Fuente, S and Mackay, EB and Schladow, SG and Watanabe, S and Marcé, R and Pierson, DC and Thiery, W and Jennings, E}, title = {Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {2318}, pmid = {33875656}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.}, }
@article {pmid33872894, year = {2021}, author = {D'Alò, F and Odriozola, I and Baldrian, P and Zucconi, L and Ripa, C and Cannone, N and Malfasi, F and Brancaleoni, L and Onofri, S}, title = {Microbial activity in alpine soils under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {783}, number = {}, pages = {147012}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147012}, pmid = {33872894}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Italy ; *Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Soil enzymatic activity was assessed in the Stelvio Pass area (Italian Central Alps) aiming to define the possible effects of climate change on microbial functioning. Two sites at two different elevations were chosen, a subalpine (2239 m) and an alpine belt (2604-2624 m), with mean annual air temperature differing by almost 3 °C, coherent with the worst future warming scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2100. The lower altitude site may represent a proxy of the potential future situation at higher altitude after the upward shift of subalpine vegetation due to climate change. Additionally, hexagonal open top chambers (OTCs) were installed at the upper site, to passively increase by about 2 °C the summer inner temperature to simulate short term effects of warming before the vegetation shift takes place. Soil physicochemical properties and the bacterial and fungal abundances of the above samples were also considered. The subalpine soils showed a higher microbial activity, especially for hydrolytic enzymes, higher carbon, ammonium and hydrogen (p < 0.001) contents, and a slightly higher PO4 content (p < 0.05) than alpine soils. Bacterial abundance was higher than fungal abundance, both for alpine and subalpine soils. On the other hand, the short term effect, which increased the mean soil temperature during the peak of the growing season in the OTC, showed to induce scarcely significant differences for edaphic parameters and microbial biomass content among the warmed and control plots. Using the manipulative warming experiments, we demonstrated that warming is able to change the enzyme activity starting from colder and higher altitude sites, known to be more vulnerable to the rising temperatures associated with climate change. Although five-years of experimental warming does not allow us to make bold conclusions, it appeared that warming-induced upwards vegetation shift might induce more substantial changes in enzymatic activities than the short-term effects, in the present vegetation context.}, }
@article {pmid33871032, year = {2021}, author = {Protopopova, A and Ly, LH and Eagan, BH and Brown, KM}, title = {Climate Change and Companion Animals: Identifying Links and Opportunities for Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {61}, number = {1}, pages = {166-181}, pmid = {33871032}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Recent natural disasters and weather extremes are a stark reminder that we live in a climate crisis. Climate scientists and policymakers have asked each discipline to anticipate and create mitigation and adaptation plans in preparation for a worsening future. Companion animals both impact and are impacted by the changing climate through their intrinsically linked relationships to human society. In this theoretical paper, we argue that companion animal scientists are well-suited to address climate change issues. We identify several anticipated climate change outcomes, such as an increase in extreme weather events, human migration, disasters, and an increase in human inequity, and connect these outcomes to identified or hypothesized impacts on companion animals and the human-animal bond. We suggest opportunities to reduce climate change impacts on companion animals that include alterations to owner caretaking behaviors and breeding practices, and education of owners and governments on zoonosis and disaster preparedness. Furthermore, building climate resilience through decreasing inequity in companion animal fields is paramount; and we propose that a starting place can be in animal sheltering and other support services. We also summarize how companion animals and owners' caretaking behaviors are impacting climate change through the use of finite natural resources as well as pollution and carbon emissions. We propose that replacement, reduction, and refinement, that guide laboratory animal research, can also be useful to mitigate the effects of companion animals on the environment. We suggest criteria for successful mitigation and adaptation plans to include equitability, sustainability, respect for animals, and measurability. Finally, we end on a call to all companion animal professionals to actively consider their role in mitigating the impact of companion animals on the climate and preparing for the fallout of climate change in their communities.}, }
@article {pmid33870091, year = {2021}, author = {Maviza, A and Ahmed, F}, title = {Climate change/variability and hydrological modelling studies in Zimbabwe: a review of progress and knowledge gaps.}, journal = {SN applied sciences}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {549}, pmid = {33870091}, issn = {2523-3971}, abstract = {This paper reviews developments in climate science and hydrological modelling studies in Zimbabwe over the past 29 years in an effort to expose knowledge gaps within this research domain. We initially give a global and regional overview and then follow a systematic thematic approach in reviewing specifically online published, peer-reviewed journal articles on climate change/variability and hydrological modelling in Zimbabwe. The state and progress towards advanced integrated climate and hydrological modelling research are assessed, tracking benchmarks in the research methodologies (tools and techniques) used therein including geographic information systems and remote sensing. We present descriptive summaries of key findings, highlighting the main study themes (categories) and general conclusions arising from these studies while examining their implications for future climate and hydrological modelling research in Zimbabwe. Challenges associated with climate and hydrological modelling research in Zimbabwe are also briefly discussed and the main knowledge gaps in terms of research scope and methodologies employed in the reviewed studies also exposed. We conclude by presenting plausible potential areas of focus in updating and advancing scientific knowledge to better understand the climate-land use-hydrology nexus in Zimbabwe. While this paper is primarily relevant for researchers, the general findings are also important for policy-makers since it exposes potential areas for policy intervention or agenda setting in as far as climate and hydrology science research is concerned so as to effectively address pertinent questions in this domain in Zimbabwe.}, }
@article {pmid33869854, year = {2021}, author = {Marzouk, OA}, title = {Assessment of global warming in Al Buraimi, sultanate of Oman based on statistical analysis of NASA POWER data over 39 years, and testing the reliability of NASA POWER against meteorological measurements.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {e06625}, pmid = {33869854}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {We performed a number of statistical analysis methods on the historical data for the air temperature at 2 m above the ground and its range, as reported by the database of NASA known as POWER, which stands for Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources. The point of analysis is the University of Buraimi, located in Al Buraimi Governate, in the Northwest of the Sultanate of Oman, near its border with United Arab Emirates (UAE). The data is in the form of a value per day, for every day in the year. The data analyzed span the period from January 3[rd], 1981 (earliest day available) to December 31[st], 2019 (latest end-of-year available). The statistical analysis methods include: simple linear regression, F-test: two-sample for variances, analysis of variance (ANOVA): single factor, and t-test: two-sample assuming equal variances (pooled). The results show that the mean of the local 2-meter air temperature is increasing at a rate of about 0.039 °C per year, starting from an estimated value of 27.4 °C in 1980. For the standard deviation of the 2-meter air temperature, and the mean and standard deviation of its range; although a linear regression analysis suggests a decline over time, the regression coefficient is not significant. On the other hand, the analysis of variance for the 9 years 1981, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2019 suggests existence of statistical difference among them collectively, for the 2-meter air temperature and its range. In the second part of this work, NASA POWER data for the air temperature at 2 m above the ground, the atmospheric pressure, the relative humidity at 2 m above the ground, and the daily precipitation were compared with recorded sensor measurements at Manah meteorological station, located in Al Dakhiliyah Governate, in the Northeast of the Sultanate of Oman over all days of years 2011, 2012, 2015, and 2016. The statistical analysis and visual inspection suggest that NASA POWER data are reliable for the 2-meter air temperature, while showing about 2.1 kPa constant shift (underestimation) for the atmospheric pressure. The data show mild inaccuracy for the 2-meter relative humidity, but are largely unreliable for the precipitation, with significantly exaggerated values compared to real recordings.}, }
@article {pmid33868514, year = {2021}, author = {Roy, C}, title = {The pharmacist's role in climate change: A call to action.}, journal = {Canadian pharmacists journal : CPJ = Revue des pharmaciens du Canada : RPC}, volume = {154}, number = {2}, pages = {74-75}, pmid = {33868514}, issn = {1715-1635}, }
@article {pmid33868349, year = {2021}, author = {Amari, K and Huang, C and Heinlein, M}, title = {Potential Impact of Global Warming on Virus Propagation in Infected Plants and Agricultural Productivity.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {649768}, pmid = {33868349}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The increasing pace of global warming and climate instability will challenge the management of pests and diseases of cultivated plants. Several reports have shown that increases in environmental temperature can enhance the cell-to-cell and systemic propagation of viruses within their infected hosts. These observations suggest that earlier and longer periods of warmer weather may cause important changes in the interaction between viruses and their host's plants, thus posing risks of new viral diseases and outbreaks in agriculture and the wild. As viruses target plasmodesmata (PD) for cell-to-cell spread, these cell wall pores may play yet unknown roles in the temperature-sensitive regulation of intercellular communication and virus infection. Understanding the temperature-sensitive mechanisms in plant-virus interactions will provide important knowledge for protecting crops against diseases in a warmer climate.}, }
@article {pmid33867603, year = {2020}, author = {Wilbanks, T and Zimmerman, R and Julius, S and Kirshen, P and Smith, J and Moss, R and Solecki, W and Ruth, M and Conrad, S and Fernandez, S and Matthews, M and Savonis, M and Scarlett, L and Schwartz, H and Toole, L}, title = {Toward indicators of the performance of US Infrastructures under climate change risks.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {163}, number = {}, pages = {1795-1813}, pmid = {33867603}, issn = {0165-0009}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Built infrastructures are increasingly disrupted by climate-related extreme events. Being able to monitor what climate change implies for US infrastructures is of considerable importance to all levels of decision-makers. A capacity to develop cross-cutting, widely applicable indicators for more than a dozen different kinds of infrastructure, however, is severely limited at present. The development of such indicators must be considered an ongoing activity that will require expansion and refinement. A number of recent consensus reports suggest four priorities for indicators that portray the impacts of climate change, climate-related extreme events, and other driving forces on infrastructure. These are changes in the reliability of infrastructure services and the implications for costs; changes in the resilience of infrastructures to climate and other stresses; impacts due to the interdependencies of infrastructures; and ongoing adaptation in infrastructures.}, }
@article {pmid33866934, year = {2021}, author = {Farashi, A and Karimian, Z}, title = {Assessing climate change risks to the geographical distribution of grass species.}, journal = {Plant signaling &amp; behavior}, volume = {16}, number = {7}, pages = {1913311}, pmid = {33866934}, issn = {1559-2324}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Climate Models ; Iran ; Phylogeography ; *Plant Dispersal ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {There is extensive evidence showing the impact of climate change on the biology and biogeography of species. Adopting drought-tolerant plants to conserve water is a potential adaptation to reduce the consequences of climate change. Accordingly, it was hypothesized that climate change would not affect potential distributions of drought-tolerant species. Here, this hypothesis was tested to model the potential distribution of three drought-resistant plant. Here, the potential distribution of Agropyron cristatum, Agropyron desertorum, and Festuca arundinacea was studied in Iran under current and future climate conditions, using 10 species distribution models. Sixty-two climate change scenarios (19 global climate models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)) were used to model the potential distribution of the three plants in Iran in the future. The three species have different responses to predicted climate change due to species-environment interactions, species morphological and physiological advancement. The three species showed different responses to predicted climate change due to species-environment interactions. Festuca arundinacea and Agropyron cristatum will, respectively, experience the most and least severe decline in suitable habitats in the next 50 years. This result is because decreased annual precipitation caused an increase in habitat suitability for A. cristatum, while the same variable had the opposite effect for A. desertorum and F. arundinacea. On the other hand, F. arundinacea grows on moist soils that decreased annual precipitation caused a decrease in habitat suitability. Also, our results have clearly shown that plant species drought-stress tolerant are not immune to climate change and their current distributions undergo significant changes as a result of the changing of climate.}, }
@article {pmid33866811, year = {2021}, author = {McGuigan, K and Hoffmann, AA and Sgrò, CM}, title = {How is epigenetics predicted to contribute to climate change adaptation? What evidence do we need?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {1826}, pages = {20200119}, pmid = {33866811}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*genetics ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Epigenesis, Genetic ; *Genetic Fitness ; }, abstract = {Transgenerational effects that are interpreted in terms of epigenetics have become an important research focus at a time when rapid environmental changes are occurring. These effects are usually interpreted as enhancing fitness extremely rapidly, without depending on the slower process of natural selection changing DNA-encoded (fixed) genetic variants in populations. Supporting evidence comes from a variety of sources, including environmental associations with epialleles, cross-generation responses of clonal material exposed to different environmental conditions, and altered patterns of methylation or frequency changes in epialleles across time. Transgenerational environmental effects have been postulated to be larger than those associated with DNA-encoded genetic changes, based on (for instance) stronger associations between epialleles and environmental conditions. Yet environmental associations for fixed genetic differences may always be weak under polygenic models where multiple combinations of alleles can lead to the same evolutionary outcome. The ultimate currency of adaptation is fitness, and few transgenerational studies have robustly determined fitness effects, particularly when compared to fixed genetic variants. Not all transgenerational modifications triggered by climate change will increase fitness: stressful conditions often trigger negative fitness effects across generations that can eliminate benefits. Epigenetic responses and other transgenerational effects will undoubtedly play a role in climate change adaptation, but further, well-designed, studies are required to test their importance relative to DNA-encoded changes. This article is part of the theme issue 'How does epigenetics influence the course of evolution?'}, }
@article {pmid33866229, year = {2021}, author = {Suh, SM and Chapman, DA and Lickel, B}, title = {The role of psychological research in understanding and responding to links between climate change and conflict.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {43-48}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.02.003}, pmid = {33866229}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Violence ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on social conflict and violence is of increasing concern. The significant risk that climate change poses for human conflict has driven scholars to investigate the processes underlying the relationship. Although climate change may not directly cause conflict, heat waves and extreme weather events could amplify interpersonal violence, and climate change consequences (i.e. economic deprivation and migration) could also intensify intergroup conflict. However, psychological research is weakly integrated with this literature, and interdisciplinary efforts are needed to uncover the underpinnings of the relationship between climate change and conflict. In particular, psychological research on intergroup threat, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and culture can provide valuable insights into understanding and responding to climate-induced conflict.}, }
@article {pmid33866165, year = {2021}, author = {Zu, K and Wang, Z and Zhu, X and Lenoir, J and Shrestha, N and Lyu, T and Luo, A and Li, Y and Ji, C and Peng, S and Meng, J and Zhou, J}, title = {Upward shift and elevational range contractions of subtropical mountain plants in response to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {783}, number = {}, pages = {146896}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146896}, pmid = {33866165}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Elevational range shifts of mountain species in response to climate change have profound impact on mountain biodiversity. However, current evidence indicates great controversies in the direction and magnitude of elevational range shifts across species and regions. Here, using historical and recent occurrence records of 83 plant species in a subtropical mountain, Mt. Gongga (Sichuan, China), we evaluated changes in species elevation centroids and limits (upper and lower) along elevational gradients, and explored the determinants of elevational changes. We found that 63.9% of the species shifted their elevation centroids upward, while 22.9% shifted downward. The changes in centroid elevations and range size were more strongly correlated with changes in lower than upper limits of species elevational ranges. The magnitude of centroid elevation shifts was larger than predicted by climate warming and precipitation changes. Our results show complex changes in species elevational distributions and range sizes in Mt. Gongga, and that climate change, species traits and climate adaptation of species all influenced their elevational movement. As Mt. Gongga is one of the global biodiversity hotspots, and contains many threatened plant species, these findings provide support to future conservation planning.}, }
@article {pmid33865641, year = {2021}, author = {Schradin, C}, title = {Corona, Climate Change, and Evolved Human Behavior.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {36}, number = {7}, pages = {569-572}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2021.03.010}, pmid = {33865641}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Most scientists agree that we have to restrict climate change, but there is much frustration that we are failing. The Corona Crisis exemplifies how human behavior is constrained by its evolution, cognition, and resource availability, explaining why we do not act to avoid climate change for the benefit of future generations.}, }
@article {pmid33863431, year = {2021}, author = {Kumar, M and Ratwan, P and Dahiya, SP and Nehra, AK}, title = {Climate change and heat stress: Impact on production, reproduction and growth performance of poultry and its mitigation using genetic strategies.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {97}, number = {}, pages = {102867}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2021.102867}, pmid = {33863431}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Animals ; Breeding/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Heat Stress Disorders/genetics/prevention &amp; control ; *Heat-Shock Response/genetics ; *Poultry/genetics/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Poultry Diseases/genetics/prevention &amp; control ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Heat stress is an important environmental determinant which adversely affects the performance of poultry worldwide. The present communication reviews the impact of heat stress on production, reproduction and growth performance of poultry, and its alleviation using genetic strategies. The adverse effects of high environmental temperature on poultry include decrease in growth rate, body weight, egg production, egg weight, egg quality, meat quality, semen quality, fertility and hatchability, which cause vast financial losses to the poultry industry. High ambient temperature has an antagonistic effect on performance traits of the poultry. Thus, selection of birds for high performance has increased their susceptibility to heat stress. Additionally, heat burden during transportation of birds from one place to another leads to reduced meat quality, increased mortality and welfare issues. Molecular markers are being explored nowadays to recognize the potential candidate genes related to production, reproduction and growth traits for selecting poultry birds to enhance thermo-tolerance and resistance against diseases. In conclusion, there is a critical need of formulating selection strategies based on genetic markers and exploring more genes in addition to HSP25, 70, 90, H1, RB1CC, BAG3, PDK, ID1, Na, F, dw and K responsible for thermoregulation, to improve the overall performance of poultry along with their ability to tolerate heat stress conditions.}, }
@article {pmid33863427, year = {2021}, author = {Taylor, NAS and Lee, JY and Kim, S and Notley, SR}, title = {Physiological interactions with personal-protective clothing, physically demanding work and global warming: An Asia-Pacific perspective.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {97}, number = {}, pages = {102858}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2021.102858}, pmid = {33863427}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Asia ; *Global Warming ; *Heat-Shock Response ; Humans ; *Occupational Stress ; *Protective Clothing ; }, abstract = {The Asia-Pacific contains over half of the world's population, 21 countries have a Gross Domestic Product <25% of the world's largest economy, many countries have tropical climates and all suffer the impact of global warming. That 'perfect storm' exacerbates the risk of occupational heat illness, yet first responders must perform physically demanding work wearing personal-protective clothing and equipment. Unfortunately, the Eurocentric emphasis of past research has sometimes reduced its applicability to other ethnic groups. To redress that imbalance, relevant contemporary research has been reviewed, to which has been added information applicable to people of Asian, Melanesian and Polynesian ancestry. An epidemiological triad is used to identify the causal agents and host factors of work intolerance within hot-humid climates, commencing with the size dependency of resting metabolism and heat production accompanying load carriage, followed by a progression from the impact of single-layered clothing through to encapsulating ensembles. A morphological hypothesis is presented to account for inter-individual differences in heat production and heat loss, which seems to explain apparent ethnic- and gender-related differences in thermoregulation, at least within thermally compensable states. The mechanisms underlying work intolerance, cardiovascular insufficiency and heat illness are reviewed, along with epidemiological data from the Asia-Pacific. Finally, evidence-based preventative and treatment strategies are presented and updated concerning moisture-management fabrics and barriers, dehydration, pre- and post-exercise cooling, and heat adaptation. An extensive reference list is provided, with >25 recommendations enabling physiologists, occupational health specialists, policy makers, purchasing officers and manufacturers to rapidly extract interpretative outcomes pertinent to the Asia-Pacific.}, }
@article {pmid33861505, year = {2021}, author = {Zwerschke, N and Morley, SA and Peck, LS and Barnes, DKA}, title = {Can Antarctica's shallow zoobenthos 'bounce back' from iceberg scouring impacts driven by climate change?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {13}, pages = {3157-3165}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15617}, pmid = {33861505}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Ice Cover ; }, abstract = {All coastal systems experience disturbances and many across the planet are under unprecedented threat from an intensification of a variety of stressors. The West Antarctic Peninsula is a hotspot of physical climate change and has experienced a dramatic loss of sea-ice and glaciers in recent years. Among other things, sea-ice immobilizes icebergs, reducing collisions between icebergs and the seabed, thus decreasing ice-scouring. Ice disturbance drives patchiness in successional stages across seabed assemblages in Antarctica's shallows, making this an ideal system to understand the ecosystem resilience to increasing disturbance with climate change. We monitored a shallow benthic ecosystem before, during and after a 3-year pulse of catastrophic ice-scouring events and show that such systems can return, or bounce back, to previous states within 10 years. Our long-term data series show that recovery can happen more rapidly than expected, when disturbances abate, even in highly sensitive cold, polar environments.}, }
@article {pmid33858105, year = {2021}, author = {Nam, KJ and Li, Q and Heo, SK and Tariq, S and Loy-Benitez, J and Woo, TY and Yoo, CK}, title = {Inter-regional multimedia fate analysis of PAHs and potential risk assessment by integrating deep learning and climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {411}, number = {}, pages = {125149}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.125149}, pmid = {33858105}, issn = {1873-3336}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; *Deep Learning ; Environmental Monitoring ; Multimedia ; *Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/analysis/toxicity ; Republic of Korea ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are hazardous compounds associated with respiratory disease and lung cancer. Increasing fossil fuel consumption, which causes climate change, has accelerated the emissions of PAHs. However, potential risks by PAHs have not been predicted for Korea, and appropriate PAH regulations under climate change have yet to be developed. This study assesses the potential risks posed by PAHs using climate change scenarios based on deep learning, and a multimedia fugacity model was employed to describe the future fate of PAHs. The multimedia fugacity model describes the dynamics of sixteen PAHs by reflecting inter-regional meteorological transportation. A deep neural network predicts future environmental and economic conditions, and the potential risks posed by PAHs, in the year 2050, using a prediction model and climate change scenarios. The assessment indicates that cancer risks would increase by more than 50%, exceeding the lower risk threshold in the southern and western regions. A mix of strategies for developing PAH regulatory policies highlighted the necessity of increasing PAHs monitoring stations and controlling fossil fuel usage based on the domestic and global conditions under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid33857460, year = {2021}, author = {Middleton, J and Cunsolo, A and Pollock, N and Jones-Bitton, A and Wood, M and Shiwak, I and Flowers, C and Harper, SL}, title = {Temperature and place associations with Inuit mental health in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {198}, number = {}, pages = {111166}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.111166}, pmid = {33857460}, issn = {1096-0953}, support = {/CAPMC/CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Inuit ; *Mental Health ; Newfoundland and Labrador ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has important implications for mental health globally. Yet, few studies have quantified the magnitude and direction of associations between weather and mental health-related factors, or assessed the geographical distribution of associations, particularly in areas experiencing rapid climatic change. This study examined the associations between air temperature variables and mental health-related community clinic visits across Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada, and the place-specific attributes of these associations.<br><br>METHODS: Daily de-identified community clinic visit data were collected from the provincial electronic health recording system and linked to historical weather data (2012-2018). A multilevel, multivariable negative binomial regression model was fit to investigate associations between temperature variables and mental health-related community clinic visits across the region, adjusting for seasonality as a fixed effect and community as a random effect. A multivariable negative binomial model was then fit for each Nunatsiavut community, adjusting for seasonality.<br><br>RESULTS: Mental health-related visits contributed to 2.4% of all 228,104 visit types across the study period; this proportion ranged from 0.6% to 11.3% based on community and year. Regionally, the incidence rate of mental health-related community clinic visits was greater after two weeks of warm average (i.e. above -5&#x1d52;C) temperatures compared to temperatures below -5&#x1d52;C (IRR-5&#x2264;5&#x1d52;C&#xa0;=&#xa0;1.47, 95% CI&#xa0;=&#xa0;1.21-1.78; IRR6&#x2264;15&#x1d52;C&#xa0;=&#xa0;2.24, 95% CI&#xa0;=&#xa0;1.66-3.03; IRR>15&#x1d52;C&#xa0;=&#xa0;1.73, 95% CI&#xa0;=&#xa0;1.02-2.94), and the incidence rate of mental health-related clinic visits was lower when the number of consecutive days within -5 to 5&#x1d52;C ranges (i.e. temperatures considered to be critical to land use) increased (IRR&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.96; 95% CI&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.94-0.99), adjusting for seasonal and community effects. Community-specific models, however, revealed that no two communities had the same association between meteorological conditions and the incidence rate of daily mental health-related visits.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Regionally, longer periods of warm temperatures may burden existing healthcare resources and shorter periods of temperatures critical to land use (i.e. -5 to 5&#x1d52;C) may present enjoyable or opportunistic conditions to access community and land-based resources. The heterogeneity found in temperature and mental health-related clinic visits associations across Nunatsiavut communities demonstrates that place quantitatively matters in the context of Inuit mental health and climate change. This evidence underscores the importance of place-based approaches to health policy, planning, adaptation, and research related to climate change, particularly in circumpolar regions such as Nunatsiavut where the rate of warming is one of the fastest on the planet.}, }
@article {pmid33857438, year = {2021}, author = {Kidd, SA and Hajat, S and Bezgrebelna, M and McKenzie, K and , }, title = {The climate change-homelessness nexus.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {397}, number = {10286}, pages = {1693-1694}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00834-5}, pmid = {33857438}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; COVID-19/diagnosis/epidemiology/*psychology/virology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Decision Making/ethics ; Environment ; Extreme Cold ; Extreme Heat ; Female ; Health Services Accessibility/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ill-Housed Persons/*psychology ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2/genetics ; }, }
@article {pmid33855729, year = {2021}, author = {Scafuto, F}, title = {Individual and social-psychological factors to explain climate change efficacy: The role of mindfulness, sense of global community, and egalitarianism.}, journal = {Journal of community psychology}, volume = {49}, number = {6}, pages = {2003-2022}, doi = {10.1002/jcop.22576}, pmid = {33855729}, issn = {1520-6629}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mindfulness ; Students ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Universities ; }, abstract = {This article focused on the study of individual and social-psychological determinants of a sense of efficacy on climate change mitigation. A correlational study investigated the predictive role of mindfulness, egalitarianism, risk concern, knowledge, and psychological sense of global community (PSGC). An online survey was administrated to US College students (N = 277). The main predictors of climate change response efficacy (CCRE) were PSGC and egalitarianism, followed by risk concern and climate knowledge. Among the facets of mindfulness, observing, and describing were the only ones associated with CCRE. The results found that mindfulness observing predicted response efficacy both directly and through the mediation of risk concern and sense of global community. Conversely, egalitarianism was not a significant mediator. Community psychologists should promote a sense of belonging to all humanity, and a more egalitarian view of the world, beyond risk concern, to increase climate efficacy. Training the skill of mindfulness observing could be a way to produce a sense of global community and affect climate change efficacy.}, }
@article {pmid33855031, year = {2021}, author = {Canfield, KN and Mulvaney, K and Merrill, N}, title = {Messaging on Slow Impacts: Applying Lessons Learned from Climate Change Communication to Catalyze and Improve Marine Nutrient Communication.}, journal = {Frontiers in environmental science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {33855031}, issn = {2296-665X}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Building publics' understanding about human-environmental causes and impacts of nutrient pollution is difficult due to the diverse sources and, at times, extended timescales of increasing inputs, consequences to ecosystems, and recovery after remediation. Communicating environmental problems with "slow impacts" has long been a challenge for scientists, public health officials, and science communicators, as the time delay for subsequent consequences to become evident dilutes the sense of urgency to act. Fortunately, scientific research and practice in the field of climate change communication has begun to identify best practices to address these challenges. Climate change demonstrates a delay between environmental stressor and impact, and recommended practices for climate change communication illustrate how to explain and motivate action around this complex environmental problem. Climate change communication research provides scientific understanding of how people evaluate risk and scientific information about climate change. We used a qualitative coding approach to review the science communication and climate change communication literature to identify approaches that could be used for nutrients and how they could be applied. Recognizing the differences between climate change and impacts of nutrient pollution, we also explore how environmental problems with delayed impacts demand nuanced strategies for effective communication and public engagement. Applying generalizable approaches to successfully communicate the slow impacts related to nutrient pollution across geographic contexts will help build publics' understanding and urgency to act on comprehensive management of nutrient pollution, thereby increasing protection of coastal and marine environments.}, }
@article {pmid33854171, year = {2021}, author = {Tan, Q and Liu, Y and Dai, L and Pan, T}, title = {Shortened key growth periods of soybean observed in China under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {8197}, pmid = {33854171}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Glycine max/*growth &amp; development ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Phenology is an important indicator of global climate change. Revealing the spatiotemporal characteristics of crop phenology is vital for ameliorating the adverse effects of climate change and guiding regional agricultural production. This study evaluated the spatiotemporal variability of soybean's phenological stages and key growth periods, and assessed their sensitivity to key climatic factors, utilizing a long-term dataset (1992-2018) of soybean phenology and associated meteorological data collected at 51 stations across China. The results showed that (1) during the soybean growing seasons from 1992 to 2018, the average temperature (0.34 ± 0.09 ℃ decade[-1]) and cumulative precipitation (6.66 ± 0.93 mm decade[-1]) increased, but cumulative sunshine hours (- 33.98 ± 1.05 h decade[-1]) decreased. (2) On a national scale, dates of sowing, emergence, trifoliate, anthesis, and podding of soybean were delayed, while the maturity date showed an advancing trend. The vegetative growth period (- 0.52 ± 0.24 days decade[-1]) and whole growth period (- 1.32 ± 0.30 days decade[-1]) of soybean were shortened, but the reproductive growth period (0.05 ± 0.26 days decade[-1]) was slightly extended. Trends in soybean phenological stages and key growth periods diverged in regions. Soybean phenological stages were delayed in Huang-Huai-Hai soybean zone, whereas advanced in southern soybean zone. Moreover, the key growth periods were greatly shortened in northern soybean zone. (3) In general, the sensitivity of soybean key growth periods to temperature was negative, whereas those to precipitation and sunshine hours differed among regions. In particular, most phenological stages were negatively sensitive to sunshine hours. Our results will provide scientific support for decision-making in agricultural production practices.}, }
@article {pmid33854166, year = {2021}, author = {Chemura, A and Mudereri, BT and Yalew, AW and Gornott, C}, title = {Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {8097}, pmid = {33854166}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicities that depend on local microclimatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five premium specialty coffees in Ethiopia. We implement an ensemble model of three machine learning algorithms to predict current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) suitability for each specialty coffee under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the importance of variables determining coffee suitability in the combined model is different from those for specialty coffees despite the climatic factors remaining more important in determining suitability than topographic and soil variables. Our model predicts that 27% of the country is generally suitable for coffee, and of this area, only up to 30% is suitable for specialty coffees. The impact modelling showed that the combined model projects a net gain in coffee production suitability under climate change in general but losses in five out of the six modelled specialty coffee growing areas. We conclude that depending on drivers of suitability and projected impacts, climate change will significantly affect the Ethiopian speciality coffee sector and area-specific adaptation measures are required to build resilience.}, }
@article {pmid33853699, year = {2021}, author = {Romeu, D}, title = {Is climate change a mental health crisis?.}, journal = {BJPsych bulletin}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {243-245}, pmid = {33853699}, issn = {2056-4694}, abstract = {The Earth's climate is in a complex state of change as a result of human activity. The interface between climate change and physical health has received significant attention, but its effects on mental health and illness are less understood. This article provides an insight into the psychiatric sequelae of climate change, suggests strategies that psychiatrists can use to take action, and argues that it is their responsibility to do so.}, }
@article {pmid33852186, year = {2021}, author = {Carroll, C and Ray, JC}, title = {Maximizing the effectiveness of national commitments to protected area expansion for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem carbon under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {15}, pages = {3395-3414}, pmid = {33852186}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Canada ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Northwestern United States ; Paris ; }, abstract = {Global commitments to protected area expansion should prioritize opportunities to protect climate refugia and ecosystems which store high levels of irrecoverable carbon, as key components of an effective response to biodiversity loss and climate change. The United States and Canada are responsible for one-sixth of global greenhouse gas emissions but hold extensive natural ecosystems that store globally significant above- and below-ground carbon. Canada has initiated a process of protected area network expansion in concert with efforts at reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, and acknowledged nature-based solutions as a key aspect of climate change mitigation. The US, although not a party to global biodiversity conventions, has recently committed to protecting 30% of its extent by 2030 and achieving the UNFCCC Paris Agreement's mitigation targets. The opportunities afforded by these dual biodiversity conservation and climate commitments require coordinated national and regional policies to ensure that new protected areas maximize biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation opportunities. We address how global commitments can best inform national policy initiatives which build on existing agency mandates for regional planning and species conservation. Previous analyses of global conservation priorities under climate change have been tenuously linked to policy contexts of individual nations and have lacked information on refugia due to limitations of globally available datasets. Comparison and synthesis of predictions from a range of recently developed refugia metrics allow such data to inform planning despite substantial uncertainty arising from contrasting model assumptions and inputs. A case study for endangered species planning for old-forest-associated species in the US Pacific Northwest demonstrates how regional planning can be nested hierarchically within national biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation strategies which integrate refugia, connectivity, and ecosystem carbon metrics to holistically evaluate the role of different land designations and where carbon mitigation and protection of biodiversity's resilience to climate change can be aligned.}, }
@article {pmid33851296, year = {2021}, author = {Bai, L and Tian, J and Peng, Y and Huang, Y and He, X and Bai, X and Bai, T}, title = {Effects of climate change on ecosystem services and their components in southern hills and northern grasslands in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {33}, pages = {44916-44935}, pmid = {33851296}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2017YFC0505606//The National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, mesh = {Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Grassland ; }, abstract = {We investigated the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem services and their components in two distinct ecosystems: the northern grasslands and southern hills in China. The effects of minimum, average, and maximum temperature, and precipitation at monthly, seasonal, and yearly scales on ecosystem services and their components were studied through stepwise multiple regression analysis. The results showed that in the northern grasslands, an increase in the total ecosystem services value (ESV) was mainly attributed to soil conservation, biodiversity, hydrological regulation, and aesthetic landscape. In the southern hills, an increase in total ESV in each region was mainly attributed to climate regulation, environmental purification, biodiversity, and aesthetic landscape. There were strong correlations between ESVs and fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. In the northern grasslands, temperature was the main driving factor of the values from 11 categories of ecosystem services in Anxi, Tumuji, and Xilingol. However, in West Ordos, precipitation negatively affected the change in ESVs. In the southern hills, ESVs were governed by both precipitation and temperature in Huaying. Precipitation variables were an important factor affecting the ESVs in Cili. There was a stronger correlation between temperature and the majority of ESVs in Danjiangkou, Chongyi, and Lechang than precipitation. This paper provides a basis for a better understanding of the impact of climate change on different ecosystem services, and helps to enhance ESV under climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid33850264, year = {2021}, author = {Karniski, C}, title = {Climate change weakens the tie between weather and mast seeding.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {479}, pmid = {33850264}, issn = {2399-3642}, abstract = {Climate change has been shown to affect the interannual variation and synchrony among individuals in seed production of masting trees, yet the proximate mechanisms driving these patterns remain unclear. A recent study by Michał Bogdziewicz and colleagues shows that the relationship between weather cues and seed initiation weakens in European beech as warming increases, resulting in progressive asynchrony of seed maturation. This study emphasizes the vulnerability of the relationship between environmental cues and forest reproduction to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33849323, year = {2021}, author = {Hamann, E and Wadgymar, SM and Anderson, JT}, title = {Costs of reproduction under experimental climate change across elevations in the perennial forb Boechera stricta.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {288}, number = {1948}, pages = {20203134}, pmid = {33849323}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Brassicaceae ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Snow ; }, abstract = {Investment in current reproduction can reduce future fitness by depleting resources needed for maintenance, particularly under environmental stress. These trade-offs influence life-history evolution. We tested whether climate change alters the future-fitness costs of current reproduction in a large-scale field experiment of Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae). Over 6 years, we simulated climate change along an elevational gradient in the Rocky Mountains through snow removal, which accelerates snowmelt and reduces soil water availability. Costs of reproduction were greatest in arid, lower elevations, where high initial reproductive effort depressed future fitness. At mid-elevations, initial reproduction augmented subsequent fitness in benign conditions, but pronounced costs emerged under snow removal. At high elevation, snow removal dampened costs of reproduction by prolonging the growing season. In most scenarios, failed reproduction in response to resource limitation depressed lifetime fecundity. Indeed, fruit abortion only benefited high-fitness individuals under benign conditions. We propose that climate change could shift life-history trade-offs in an environment-dependent fashion, possibly favouring early reproduction and short lifespans in stressful conditions.}, }
@article {pmid33848869, year = {2021}, author = {Bertucci, JI and Bellas, J}, title = {Combined effect of microplastics and global warming factors on early growth and development of the sea urchin (Paracentrotus lividus).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {782}, number = {}, pages = {146888}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146888}, pmid = {33848869}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Larva ; Microplastics ; *Paracentrotus ; Plastics ; Sea Urchins ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {The aim of this work was to estimate the potential risk of the combined effect of global change factors (acidification, temperature increase) and microplastic (MP) pollution on the growth and development of the sea urchin P. lividus. Embryo-larval bioassays were conducted to determine growth and morphology after 48 h of incubation with MP (1000 and 3000 particles/mL); with filtered sea water at pH = 7.6; and with their combinations. A second experiment was conducted to study the effect of pH and MP in combination with a temperature increase of 4 °C compared to control (20 °C). We found that the inhibition of growth in embryos reared at pH = 7.6 was around 75%. Larvae incubated at 3000 MP particles/mL showed a 20% decrease in growth compared to controls. The exposure to MP also induced an increase in the postoral arm separation or rounded vertices. The combined exposure to a pH 7.6 and MP caused a significant decrease of larval growth compared to control, to MP and to pH 7.6 treatments. Morphological alterations were observed in these treatments, including the development of only two arms. Increasing the temperature resulted in an increased growth in control, in pH 7.6 and pH 7.6 + MP3000 treatments, but the relative stomach volume decreased. However, when growth parameters were expressed per Degree-Days the lower growth provoked by the thermal stress was evidenced in all treatments. In this work we demonstrated that MP could aggravate the effect of a decreased pH and that an increase in water temperature generated an additional stress on P. lividus larvae, manifested in a lower growth and an altered development. Therefore, the combined stress caused by ocean warming, ocean acidification, and microplastic pollution, could threaten sea urchin populations leading to a potential impact on coastal ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid33847256, year = {2021}, author = {Borg, FH and Greibe Andersen, J and Karekezi, C and Yonga, G and Furu, P and Kallestrup, P and Kraef, C}, title = {Climate change and health in urban informal settlements in low- and middle-income countries - a scoping review of health impacts and adaptation strategies.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1908064}, pmid = {33847256}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Africa ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases ; Developing Countries ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Background: Climate change affects human health with those with the least resources being most vulnerable. However, little is known about the impact of climate change on human health and effective adaptation methods in informal settlements in low- and middle-income countries.Objective: The objective of this scoping review was to identify, characterize, and summarize research evidence on the impact of climate change on human health in informal settlements and the available adaptation methods and interventions.Method: A scoping review was conducted using the Arksey and O'Malley framework. The four bibliographic databases PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and the Cochrane library were searched. Eligibility criteria were all types of peer-reviewed publications reporting on climate change or related extreme weather events (as defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), informal settlements (as defined by UN-Habitat), low- and middle-income countries (as defined by the World Bank) and immediate human health impacts. Review selection and characterization were performed by two independent reviewers using a predefined form.Results: Out of 1197 studies initially identified, 15 articles were retained. We found nine original research articles, and six reviews, commentaries, and editorials. The articles were reporting on the exposures flooding, temperature changes and perceptions of climate change with health outcomes broadly categorized as mental health, communicable diseases, and non-communicable diseases. Six studies had a geographical focus on Asia, four on Africa, and one on South America, the remaining four articles had no geographical focus. One article investigated an adaptation method for heat exposure. Serval other adaptation methods were proposed, though they were not investigated by the articles in this review.Conclusion: There is a paucity of original research and solid study designs. Further studies are needed to improve the understanding of the impact, the most effective adaptation methods and to inform policy making.}, }
@article {pmid33846354, year = {2021}, author = {Lobeto, H and Menendez, M and Losada, IJ}, title = {Future behavior of wind wave extremes due to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {7869}, pmid = {33846354}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {FPU17/06203//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; RYC-2014-6469//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/ ; EXCEED RTI2018-096449-B-I00//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; EXCEED RTI2018-096449-B-I00//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; ECLISEA 690462//ERA4CS/ERA-NET co-funded by the European Union/ ; ECLISEA 690462//ERA4CS/ERA-NET co-funded by the European Union/ ; }, abstract = {Extreme waves will undergo changes in the future when exposed to different climate change scenarios. These changes are evaluated through the analysis of significant wave height (Hs) return values and are also compared with annual mean Hs projections. Hourly time series are analyzed through a seven-member ensemble of wave climate simulations and changes are estimated in Hs for return periods from 5 to 100 years by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Despite the underlying uncertainty that characterizes extremes, we obtain robust changes in extreme Hs over more than approximately 25% of the ocean surface. The results obtained conclude that increases cover wider areas and are larger in magnitude than decreases for higher return periods. The Southern Ocean is the region where the most robust increase in extreme Hs is projected, showing local increases of over 2 m regardless the analyzed return period under RCP8.5 scenario. On the contrary, the tropical north Pacific shows the most robust decrease in extreme Hs, with local decreases of over 1.5 m. Relevant divergences are found in several ocean regions between the projected behavior of mean and extreme wave conditions. For example, an increase in Hs return values and a decrease in annual mean Hs is found in the SE Indian, NW Atlantic and NE Pacific. Therefore, an extrapolation of the expected change in mean wave conditions to extremes in regions presenting such divergences should be adopted with caution, since it may lead to misinterpretation when used for the design of marine structures or in the evaluation of coastal flooding and erosion.}, }
@article {pmid33842833, year = {2020}, author = {Ogega, OM and Alobo, M}, title = {Impact of 1.5 [o]C and 2 [o]C global warming scenarios on malaria transmission in East Africa.}, journal = {AAS open research}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {22}, pmid = {33842833}, issn = {2515-9321}, abstract = {Background: Malaria remains a global challenge with approximately 228 million cases and 405,000 malaria-related deaths reported in 2018 alone; 93% of which were in sub-Saharan Africa. Aware of the critical role than environmental factors play in malaria transmission, this study aimed at assessing the relationship between precipitation, temperature, and clinical malaria cases in East Africa and how the relationship may change under 1.5 [o]C and 2.0 [o]C global warming levels (hereinafter GWL1.5 and GWL2.0, respectively). Methods: A correlation analysis was done to establish the current relationship between annual precipitation, mean temperature, and clinical malaria cases. Differences between annual precipitation and mean temperature value projections for periods 2008-2037 and 2023-2052 (corresponding to GWL1.5 and GWL2.0, respectively), relative to the control period (1977-2005), were computed to determine how malaria transmission may change under the two global warming scenarios. Results: A predominantly positive/negative correlation between clinical malaria cases and temperature/precipitation was observed. Relative to the control period, no major significant changes in precipitation were shown in both warming scenarios. However, an increase in temperature of between 0.5 [o]C and 1.5 [o]C and 1.0 [o]C to 2.0 [o]C under GWL1.5 and GWL2.0, respectively, was recorded. Hence, more areas in East Africa are likely to be exposed to temperature thresholds favourable for increased malaria vector abundance and, hence, potentially intensify malaria transmission in the region. Conclusions: GWL1.5 and GWL2.0 scenarios are likely to intensify malaria transmission in East Africa. Ongoing interventions should, therefore, be intensified to sustain the gains made towards malaria elimination in East Africa in a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid33844772, year = {2020}, author = {Palmeiro-Silva, YK and Cifuentes, LA and Cortés, S and Olivares, M and Silva, I}, title = {[The threat of climate change on population health and the urgent need to act].}, journal = {Revista medica de Chile}, volume = {148}, number = {11}, pages = {1652-1658}, doi = {10.4067/S0034-98872020001101652}, pmid = {33844772}, issn = {0717-6163}, mesh = {Chile ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Particulate Matter ; *Population Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is associated with negative health outcomes, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. This article analyses the threat of climate change on population health and the urgent need to implement measures to avoid this damage. Heat vulnerability, heatwave exposures, and wildfire exposure to forest fires have increased in Chile. In 2018, the annual mean concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exceeded the safe level proposed by the World Health Organization, increasing the risk of negative health outcomes. Thus, multidisciplinary and intersectoral mitigation and adaptation policies are needed. Among other elements, mental health impacts of climate change, health education provided by health workers to reduce negative health impacts of climate change, greater engagement of academia to generate evidence useful for policy-making processes and a better articulation between central and local governments should be considered. Finally, achieving a healthy population should be the aim of all these policies and efforts.}, }
@article {pmid33840020, year = {2021}, author = {Faisal, M and Chunping, X and Abbas, A and Raza, MH and Akhtar, S and Ajmal, MA and Ali, A}, title = {Do risk perceptions and constraints influence the adoption of climate change practices among small livestock herders in Punjab, Pakistan?.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {32}, pages = {43777-43791}, pmid = {33840020}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2662019FW018//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Livestock ; Pakistan ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Climate change is severely damaging the agricultural system of many food producing regions worldwide. Small/subsistent livestock herders are the most vulnerable and less resilient group towards climatic disasters within South Asian region including Pakistan. The adoption of climate-smart practices would be beneficial for small livestock herders because of its potential to ensure food security, improve income, and sustain development simultaneously. The purpose of this paper is to investigate factors influencing small livestock herders' adaptation decisions towards changing climate by conducting field-based research. We intend to understand how institutional factors, risk perceptions, adaptations, and personal constraints affect the adaptation decisions related to climate change mitigation and choice of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a primary data set of 405 small livestock herders from Punjab, Pakistan was used. The regression results of empirical models reveal the probability of adopting specific climate change strategies. The study results showed that zero adaptation (non-adoption) to climate change is higher when there is low literacy rate, less experience, nuclear family system, lack of institutional services, and low level of risk perception about climate change. The marginal outcome showed that the livestock herders with positive risk perception and access to the institutional services do participate more frequently in a higher number of adaptations options for economic and ecological benefits. Therefore, it is suggested that government and other development actors should strengthen institutions for trust building among local community groups and to reduce individuals' risks. Moreover, effective insurance schemes could facilitate small livestock herders to keep less but more productive livestock. The study recommends building viable and potential weather index insurance schemes which will result meaningful marginal scale benefits for smallholders. Finally, the results of major constraints suggest that it is necessary to provide awareness of climatic vulnerabilities, timely information delivery, and adequate financial facilities to offset resource constraints of livestock herders in order to adopt sustainable strategies at their farms.}, }
@article {pmid33839610, year = {2021}, author = {Islam, MM and Afrin, S and Tarek, MH and Rahman, MM}, title = {Reliability and financial feasibility assessment of a community rainwater harvesting system considering precipitation variability due to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {289}, number = {}, pages = {112507}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112507}, pmid = {33839610}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Feasibility Studies ; *Rain ; Reproducibility of Results ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This study proposes a community rainwater harvesting (RWH) system as an alternative water supply solution for Paikgacha, a water-scarce coastal urban area in Bangladesh. Although individual household-based RWH systems have been implemented in many areas in Bangladesh, to date, no study has been conducted designing a community RWH system and assessing its reliability and financial feasibility. This study employs historical observed and available climate model predicted future rainfall data into stormwater management model (SWMM) for rainfall-runoff simulation of the community RWH, and compares SWMM's performance with rational formula based estimation. We then calculate volumetric and time reliability of the proposed system and assess its financial viability. We observe good agreement in reliability curves generated by SWMM and rational formula-based model. Under the historical rainfall scenario, our proposed community RWH shows up to 99% reliability for 100 L per day household demand, given that proper community size and storage tank size are chosen. Predicted rainfall pattern of 2041-2070 period shows similar reliability-tank size relation to that of historical observed rainfall; however, predicted high precipitation intensity during 2021-2040 and 2071-2100 seem to assist the system in attaining higher reliability. Cost-benefit analysis indicates the financial viability of the proposed system. Finally, we develop a nomograph incorporating interactive factors of RWH, which would ease decision making by the policymakers regarding the implementation of community RWH.}, }
@article {pmid33838729, year = {2021}, author = {Pendrey, CG and Quilty, S and Gruen, RL and Weeramanthri, T and Lucas, RM}, title = {Is climate change exacerbating health-care workforce shortages for underserved populations?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {e183-e184}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00028-0}, pmid = {33838729}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Medically Underserved Area ; *Vulnerable Populations ; Workforce ; }, }
@article {pmid33838727, year = {2021}, author = {Paterson, P and Clarke, RM}, title = {Climate change risk communication: a vaccine hesitancy perspective.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {e179-e180}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00027-9}, pmid = {33838727}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; *Vaccines ; }, }
@article {pmid33838130, year = {2021}, author = {Kotcher, J and Maibach, E and Miller, J and Campbell, E and Alqodmani, L and Maiero, M and Wyns, A}, title = {Views of health professionals on climate change and health: a multinational survey study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {e316-e323}, pmid = {33838130}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change arguably represents one of the greatest global health threats of our time. Health professionals can advocate for global efforts to reduce emissions and protect people from climate change; however, evidence of their willingness to do so remains scarce. In this Viewpoint, we report findings from a large, multinational survey of health professionals (n=4654) that examined their views of climate change as a human health issue. Consistent with previous research, participants in this survey largely understood that climate change is happening and is caused by humans, viewed climate change as an important and growing cause of health harm in their country, and felt a responsibility to educate the public and policymakers about the problem. Despite their high levels of commitment to engaging in education and advocacy on the issue, many survey participants indicated that a range of personal, professional, and societal barriers impede them from doing so, with time constraints being the most widely reported barrier. However, participants say various resources-continuing professional education, communication training, patient education materials, policy statements, action alerts, and guidance on how to make health-care workplaces sustainable-can help to address those barriers. We offer recommendations on how to strengthen and support health professional education and advocacy activities to address the human health challenges of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33837599, year = {2021}, author = {Timoner, P and Fasel, M and Ashraf Vaghefi, SS and Marle, P and Castella, E and Moser, F and Lehmann, A}, title = {Impacts of climate change on aquatic insects in temperate alpine regions: Complementary modeling approaches applied to Swiss rivers.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {15}, pages = {3565-3581}, pmid = {33837599}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {315230_173206/SNSF_/Swiss National Science Foundation/Switzerland ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Insecta ; *Rivers ; Switzerland ; }, abstract = {Freshwater biodiversity loss is a major concern, and global warming is already playing a significant role in species extinctions. Our main goal was to predict climate change impacts on aquatic insect species distribution and richness in Swiss running waters according to two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), using different modeling approaches, that is, species distribution models (SDMs), stacked-SDMs (S-SDMs) and a macroecological model (MEM). We analyzed 10,808 reaches, used as spatial units for model predictions, for a total river network length of 20,610 km. Results were assessed at both the countrywide and the biogeographic regional scales. We used incidence data of 41 species of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) from 259 sites distributed across Switzerland. We integrated a coupled model for hydrology and glacier retreat to simulate monthly time-step discharge from which we derived hydrological variables. These, along with thermal, land-cover, topographic and spatially explicit data, served as predictors for our ecological models. Predictions of occurrence probabilities and EPT richness were compared among the different regions, periods and scenarios. A Shiny web application was developed to interactively explore all the models' details, to ensure transparency and promote the sharing of information. MEM and S-SDMs approaches consistently showed that overall, climate change is likely to reduce EPT richness. Decrease could be around 10% in the least conservative scenario, depending on the region. Global warming was shown to represent a threat to species from high elevation, but in terms of species richness, running waters from lowlands and medium elevation seemed more vulnerable. Finally, our results suggested that the effects of anthropogenic activities could overweight natural factors in shaping the future of river biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid33837191, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, W and Chakraborty, TC and Xiao, W and Lee, X}, title = {Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {2115}, pmid = {33837191}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate models generally predict higher precipitation in a future warmer climate. Whether the precipitation intensification occurred in response to historical warming continues to be a subject of debate. Here, using observations of the ocean surface energy balance as a hydrological constraint, we find that historical warming intensified precipitation at a rate of 0.68 ± 0.51% K[-1], which is slightly higher than the multi-model mean calculation for the historical climate (0.38 ± 1.18% K[-1]). The reduction in ocean surface albedo associated with melting of sea ice is a positive contributor to the precipitation temperature sensitivity. On the other hand, the observed increase in ocean heat storage weakens the historical precipitation. In this surface energy balance framework, the incident shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the ocean heat storage exert a dominant control on the precipitation temperature sensitivity, explaining 91% of the inter-model spread and the spread across climate scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report.}, }
@article {pmid33836376, year = {2021}, author = {Zhu, D and Zhou, Q and Liu, M and Bi, J}, title = {Non-optimum temperature-related mortality burden in China: Addressing the dual influences of climate change and urban heat islands.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {782}, number = {}, pages = {146760}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146760}, pmid = {33836376}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Beijing ; China/epidemiology ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Islands ; Mortality ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Under the dual effects of climate change and urban heat islands (UHI), non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens are complex and uncertain, and are rarely discussed in China. In this study, by applying city-specific exposure-response functions to multiple temperature and population projections under different climate and urbanization scenarios, we comprehensively assessed the non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens in China from 2000 to 2050. Our results showed that temperature-related deaths will decrease from 1.19 million in 2010 to 1.08-1.17 million in 2050, with the exception of the most populous scenario. Excess deaths attributable to non-optimal temperatures under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) were 2.35% greater than those under RCP4.5. This indicates that the surge in heat-related deaths caused by climate change will be offset by the reduction in cold-related deaths. As the climate changes, high-risk areas will be confronted with more severe health challenges, which requires health protection resource relocation strategies. Simultaneously, the net effects of UHIs are beneficial in the historical periods, preventing 3493 (95% CI: 22-6964) deaths in 2000. But UHIs will cause an additional 6951 (95% CI: -17,637-31,539, SSP4-RCP4.5) to 17,041 (95% CI: -10,516-44,598, SSP5-RCP8.5) deaths in 2050. The heavier health burden in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 indicates that a warmer climate aggravates the negative effects of UHIs. Considering the synergistic behavior of climate change and UHIs, UHI mitigation strategies should not be developed without considering climate change. Moreover, the mortality burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with heavy burdens concentrated in the hotspots including Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing City Group, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Shandong, and Henan. These hotspots should be priority areas for the allocation of the national medical resources to provide effective public health interventions.}, }
@article {pmid33835952, year = {2021}, author = {Sheu, JC and Torres, MIM and Gordon, MR and Nguyen, PT and Coverdale, JH}, title = {Potential Impact of Climate Change on Human Trafficking: A Narrative Review.}, journal = {The Journal of nervous and mental disease}, volume = {209}, number = {5}, pages = {324-329}, doi = {10.1097/NMD.0000000000001312}, pmid = {33835952}, issn = {1539-736X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disasters/economics ; Human Trafficking/*psychology ; Humans ; Poverty ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a threat to the public health with wide-reaching impacts that are becoming more studied and recognized. An aspect of climate change that has not yet gained adequate scholarly attention is its potential impact on human trafficking. We review the potential impact of climate change on risk factors to human trafficking including poverty, gender inequality, political instability, migration or forced displacement, and weather disasters. We conclude that climate change is a crucially important consideration in understanding the complex and multifactorial risks for human trafficking. These findings add to the priority for health professionals to embrace efforts to prevent and to mitigate the effects of climate change and to take account of these risk factors in screening and identifying trafficked persons.}, }
@article {pmid33834420, year = {2021}, author = {Penaskovic, KM and Goldenberg, MN and Gerkin, JS}, title = {Telepsychiatry: a Potential Force Against Climate Change.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {45}, number = {3}, pages = {403-404}, pmid = {33834420}, issn = {1545-7230}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Psychiatry ; *Telemedicine ; }, }
@article {pmid33833264, year = {2021}, author = {Khelifa, R and Mahdjoub, H and Baaloudj, A and Cannings, RA and Samways, MJ}, title = {Effects of both climate change and human water demand on a highly threatened damselfly.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {7725}, pmid = {33833264}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {While climate change severely affects some aquatic ecosystems, it may also interact with anthropogenic factors and exacerbate their impact. In dry climates, dams can cause hydrological drought during dry periods following a great reduction in dam water discharge. However, impact of these severe hydrological droughts on lotic fauna is poorly documented, despite climate change expected to increase drought duration and intensity. We document here how dam water discharge was affected by climate variability during 2011-2018 in a highly modified watershed in northeastern Algeria, and how an endemic endangered lotic damselfly, Calopteryx exul Selys, 1853 (Odonata: Calopterygidae), responded to hydrological drought episodes. Analysis was based on a compilation of data on climate (temperature, precipitation, and drought index), water dam management (water depth and discharge volume and frequency), survey data on C. exul occurrence, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) of adults. The study period was characterized by a severe drought between 2014 and 2017, which led to a lowering of dam water depth and reduction of discharge into the river, with associated changes in water chemistry, particularly during 2017 and 2018. These events could have led to the extirpation of several populations of C. exul in the Seybouse River (Algeria). CMR surveys showed that the species was sensitive to water depth fluctuations, avoiding low and high water levels (drought and flooding). The study shows that climate change interacts with human water requirements and affects river flow regimes, water chemistry and aquatic fauna. As drought events are likely to increase in the future, the current study highlights the need for urgent new management plans for lotic habitats to maintain this species and possible others.}, }
@article {pmid33829828, year = {2021}, author = {Joslyn, S and Demnitz, R}, title = {Explaining how long CO2 stays in the atmosphere: Does it change attitudes toward climate change?.}, journal = {Journal of experimental psychology. Applied}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {473-484}, doi = {10.1037/xap0000347}, pmid = {33829828}, issn = {1939-2192}, support = {//National Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Attitude ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Uncertainty ; United States ; }, abstract = {Despite overwhelming scientific consensus about climate change, the majority of Americans are not very worried about it. This may be due in part to insufficient understanding of the urgency and seriousness, which may be related among some, to distrust of the scientific community. We test these hypotheses in an experimental study using a broadly nationally representative sample. An explanation of the delay between the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and cessation of global warming was compared to two control groups, one with basic climate change information and another with no information. Participants also received climate predictions that either included or excluded uncertainty estimates for a 3 × 2 complete factorial design. Results suggest that the delay explanation increased participants understanding of this issue and reduced their agreement with a wait-and-see strategy, especially among conservatives. Moreover, uncertainty estimates increased trust in climate predictions and ratings of climate scientists' expertise and understanding. Uncertainty estimates also increased concern about climate change and the perception of scientific consensus. Although in some cases small, these positive effects were seen across political ideology groups. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).}, }
@article {pmid33829658, year = {2021}, author = {Akanbi, RT and Davis, N and Ndarana, T}, title = {Assessing South Africa's institutional adaptive capacity to maize production in the context of climate change: Integration of a socioeconomic development dimension.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {1056-1069}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4422}, pmid = {33829658}, issn = {1551-3793}, support = {Grant number 121364//South African Agency for Science and Technology Advancement/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Socioeconomic Factors ; South Africa ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {The deployment of adaptation plans to limit the threat of climate change often hinges on the capacity of various national and local institutions. An observed decline in South Africa's maize production over the last few decades has raised questions about the capacity of institutions responsible for providing climate change-related adaptive support to maize farmers in the country. This study assessed the adaptive capacity of management institutions in South Africa supporting maize producers, using a combination of literature review, document analysis, and in-depth interviews applied in the adaptive capacity wheel (ACW) assessment tool. On the basis of the results obtained from this analysis, the adaptive capacity of South African institutions responsible for climate change response processes was scored as medium. Findings from the research suggest that the advances made to date in South Africa in terms of climate change-related policy development, resource allocation, and capacity development could be inadequate, given the extent of identified institutional weaknesses, capacity constraints, knowledge, and information limitations. The study concludes that an inability to address current institutional limitations, considering the threats associated with climate change, may result in intensified social and economic challenges in the maize production sector. The study recommends the consistent revision and capacitation of these institutions to enable them to provide the type of support that will ensure effective adaptive responses for farmers involved in maize production in the country. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:1056-1069. © 2021 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid33829521, year = {2021}, author = {Catania, F and Baedke, J and Fábregas-Tejeda, A and Nieves Delgado, A and Vitali, V and Long, LAN}, title = {Global climate change, diet, and the complex relationship between human host and microbiome: Towards an integrated picture.}, journal = {BioEssays : news and reviews in molecular, cellular and developmental biology}, volume = {43}, number = {6}, pages = {e2100049}, doi = {10.1002/bies.202100049}, pmid = {33829521}, issn = {1521-1878}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Diet ; Dysbiosis ; Humans ; *Life History Traits ; *Microbiota ; }, abstract = {Dietary changes can alter the human microbiome with potential detrimental consequences for health. Given that environment, health, and evolution are interconnected, we ask: Could diet-driven microbiome perturbations have consequences that extend beyond their immediate impact on human health? We address this question in the context of the urgent health challenges posed by global climate change. Drawing on recent studies, we propose that not only can diet-driven microbiome changes lead to dysbiosis, they can also shape life-history traits and fuel human evolution. We posit that dietary shifts prompt mismatched microbiome-host genetics configurations that modulate human longevity and reproductive success. These mismatches can also induce a heritable intra-holobiont stress response, which encourages the holobiont to re-establish equilibrium within the changed nutritional environment. Thus, while mismatches between climate change-related genetic and epigenetic configurations within the holobiont increase the risk and severity of diseases, they may also affect life-history traits and facilitate adaptive responses. These propositions form a framework that can help systematize and address climate-related dietary challenges for policy and health interventions.}, }
@article {pmid33828576, year = {2021}, author = {Rienth, M and Vigneron, N and Darriet, P and Sweetman, C and Burbidge, C and Bonghi, C and Walker, RP and Famiani, F and Castellarin, SD}, title = {Grape Berry Secondary Metabolites and Their Modulation by Abiotic Factors in a Climate Change Scenario-A Review.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {643258}, pmid = {33828576}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Temperature, water, solar radiation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration are the main abiotic factors that are changing in the course of global warming. These abiotic factors govern the synthesis and degradation of primary (sugars, amino acids, organic acids, etc.) and secondary (phenolic and volatile flavor compounds and their precursors) metabolites directly, via the regulation of their biosynthetic pathways, or indirectly, via their effects on vine physiology and phenology. Several hundred secondary metabolites have been identified in the grape berry. Their biosynthesis and degradation have been characterized and have been shown to occur during different developmental stages of the berry. The understanding of how the different abiotic factors modulate secondary metabolism and thus berry quality is of crucial importance for breeders and growers to develop plant material and viticultural practices to maintain high-quality fruit and wine production in the context of global warming. Here, we review the main secondary metabolites of the grape berry, their biosynthesis, and how their accumulation and degradation is influenced by abiotic factors. The first part of the review provides an update on structure, biosynthesis, and degradation of phenolic compounds (flavonoids and non-flavonoids) and major aroma compounds (terpenes, thiols, methoxypyrazines, and C13 norisoprenoids). The second part gives an update on the influence of abiotic factors, such as water availability, temperature, radiation, and CO2 concentration, on berry secondary metabolism. At the end of the paper, we raise some critical questions regarding intracluster berry heterogeneity and dilution effects and how the sampling strategy can impact the outcome of studies on the grapevine berry response to abiotic factors.}, }
@article {pmid33828110, year = {2021}, author = {Bright Ross, JG and Peters, W and Ossi, F and Moorcroft, PR and Cordano, E and Eccel, E and Bianchini, F and Ramanzin, M and Cagnacci, F}, title = {Climate change and anthropogenic food manipulation interact in shifting the distribution of a large herbivore at its altitudinal range limit.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {7600}, pmid = {33828110}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animal Migration/physiology ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Deer/physiology/*psychology ; Demography/trends ; Ecosystem ; Feeding Behavior/*physiology/psychology ; Food ; Herbivory/physiology ; Seasons ; Snow ; Tundra ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Ungulates in alpine ecosystems are constrained by winter harshness through resource limitation and direct mortality from weather extremes. However, little empirical evidence has definitively established how current climate change and other anthropogenic modifications of resource availability affect ungulate winter distribution, especially at their range limits. Here, we used a combination of historical (1997-2002) and contemporary (2012-2015) Eurasian roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) relocation datasets that span changes in snowpack characteristics and two levels of supplemental feeding to compare and forecast probability of space use at the species' altitudinal range limit. Scarcer snow cover in the contemporary period interacted with the augmented feeding site distribution to increase the elevation of winter range limits, and we predict this trend will continue under climate change. Moreover, roe deer have shifted from historically using feeding sites primarily under deep snow conditions to contemporarily using them under a wider range of snow conditions as their availability has increased. Combined with scarcer snow cover during December, January, and April, this trend has reduced inter-annual variability in space use patterns in these months. These spatial responses to climate- and artificial resource-provisioning shifts evidence the importance of these changing factors in shaping large herbivore spatial distribution and, consequently, ecosystem dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid33827813, year = {2021}, author = {Taheri, S and Naimi, B and Rahbek, C and Araújo, MB}, title = {Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {7}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {33827813}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Studies have documented climate change-induced shifts in species distributions but uncertainties associated with data and methods are typically unexplored. We reviewed 240 reports of climate-related species-range shifts and classified them based on three criteria. We ask whether observed distributional shifts are compared against random expectations, whether multicausal factors are examined on equal footing, and whether studies provide sufficient documentation to enable replication. We found that only ~12.1% of studies compare distributional shifts across multiple directions, ~1.6% distinguish observed patterns from random expectations, and ~19.66% examine multicausal factors. Last, ~75.5% of studies report sufficient data and results to allow replication. We show that despite gradual improvements over time, there is scope for raising standards in data and methods within reports of climate-change induced shifts in species distribution. Accurate reporting is important because policy responses depend on them. Flawed assessments can fuel criticism and divert scarce resources for biodiversity to competing priorities.}, }
@article {pmid33825679, year = {2021}, author = {Jack, A and Panchal, R}, title = {Soaring seas, forest fires and deadly drought: climate change conspiracies and mental health.}, journal = {BJPsych bulletin}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {210-215}, pmid = {33825679}, issn = {2056-4694}, abstract = {There is scientific consensus that anthropogenic climate change is real and that it provides an existential threat to humanity and the planet. In this article, we focus on climate change conspiracy theories and the impact of such beliefs on mental health. We discuss the psychiatric disorders that might be relevant to conspiracy belief endorsement and we present the underlying psychological mechanisms. We note that there is little to no literature to associate beliefs about climate change with serious mental health conditions. However, we anticipate that such beliefs may manifest pathologically in psychiatric presentations as climate change becomes increasingly at the forefront of the global agenda.}, }
@article {pmid33825186, year = {2021}, author = {Paniw, M and James, TD and Ruth Archer, C and Römer, G and Levin, S and Compagnoni, A and Che-Castaldo, J and Bennett, JM and Mooney, A and Childs, DZ and Ozgul, A and Jones, OR and Burns, JH and Beckerman, AP and Patwary, A and Sanchez-Gassen, N and Knight, TM and Salguero-Gómez, R}, title = {The myriad of complex demographic responses of terrestrial mammals to climate change and gaps of knowledge: A global analysis.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {6}, pages = {1398-1407}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13467}, pmid = {33825186}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Mammals ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Approximately 25% of mammals are currently threatened with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change. Species persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction), and hence, population dynamics. Thus, to quantify which species and regions on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how different demographic rates respond to climate is urgently needed. Here, we perform a systematic review of literature on demographic responses to climate, focusing on terrestrial mammals, for which extensive demographic data are available. To assess the full spectrum of responses, we synthesize information from studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We find only 106 such studies, corresponding to 87 mammal species. These 87 species constitute <1% of all terrestrial mammals. Our synthesis reveals a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognized as most vulnerable to climate change. Surprisingly, for most mammals and regions sensitive to climate change, holistic demographic responses to climate remain unknown. At the same time, we reveal that filling this knowledge gap is critical as the effects of climate change will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others, often depending on the specific environmental context, complicating simple projections of population fates. Assessments of population viability under climate change are in critical need to gather data that account for multiple demographic responses, and coordinated actions to assess demography holistically should be prioritized for mammals and other taxa.}, }
@article {pmid33824703, year = {2021}, author = {Destaw, F and Fenta, MM}, title = {Climate change adaptation strategies and their predictors amongst rural farmers in Ambassel district, Northern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {974}, pmid = {33824703}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The present study was conducted in Ambassel district of Northern Ethiopia to understand adaptation strategies employed by rural farmers to the adverse effects of climate change and variability and factors that determine their adaptation decisions. The study was based on multistage sampling techniques to select the study villages and sampled households (HHs). Data were collected through HH survey, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The collected data were analysed by using descriptive statistics and multinomial logit (MNL) model. The results revealed that in response to the effects of climate variability and change, the adaptation strategies deployed by farmers included terracing as soil and water conservation strategy, changing planting date, fertiliser application, crop diversification with improved variety, income diversification and livestock diversification. The result from MNL analysis showed that age, family size, educational level, farm size, income, livestock holding, access to extension, distance to market, access to climate information and agroecological zones were amongst the factors that had a significant influence on farmers' choice of adaptation strategies. The basic barriers to climate change adaptation were lack of finance, shortage of land, inadequate climate information, lack of skill and shortage of labour. Therefore, strengthening interventions that enhance income generating activities and access to climate information should be an integral part of climate change adaptation strategies. Moreover, providing early maturing and high-value crop varieties that are more suited to the local environment is also crucial.}, }
@article {pmid33824516, year = {2021}, author = {Dibley, A and Wetzer, T and Hepburn, C}, title = {National COVID debts: climate change imperils countries' ability to repay.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {592}, number = {7853}, pages = {184-187}, pmid = {33824516}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {COVID-19/*economics/epidemiology ; Developed Countries/economics ; Developing Countries/*economics ; Environmental Policy/economics/*trends ; *External Debt ; Federal Government ; Fossil Fuels/economics/supply &amp; distribution ; Global Warming/*economics/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Gross Domestic Product/trends ; Humans ; Investments/*economics ; Pandemics/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Poverty/economics ; Private Sector/economics ; Renewable Energy/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Risk Assessment ; *Risk Management ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid33823412, year = {2021}, author = {Arunrat, N and Sereenonchai, S and Wang, C}, title = {Carbon footprint and predicting the impact of climate change on carbon sequestration ecosystem services of organic rice farming and conventional rice farming: A case study in Phichit province, Thailand.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {289}, number = {}, pages = {112458}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112458}, pmid = {33823412}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Footprint ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Oryza ; Soil ; Thailand ; }, abstract = {Organic rice farming is a sustainable rice cultivation system that eliminates chemical inputs and has the potential to reduce environmental impacts. This study aims to: 1) evaluate and compare the carbon footprint intensity and the value of carbon sequestration ecosystem services (VCSES) between organic rice farming (OF) and conventional rice farming (CF) and 2) estimate the impact of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC), rice yield, and VCSES of two farming types in Phichit province, Thailand. The results showed that the carbon footprint intensity in OF and CF were significantly different with -0.13 and 0.82 kg CO2eq kg[-1] rice yield, respectively. The differences in SOC stocks (ΔSOCS) were more significant in OF with the increase of 1107.6 kg C ha[-1] year[-1] (4061.2 kg CO2eq ha[-1] year[-1]), while the ΔSOCS value in CF was 625 kg C ha[-1] year[-1] (2291.7 kg CO2eq ha[-1] year[-1]). The VCSES in OF (541,196 US$ ha[-1] year[-1]) was nearly two times higher than in CF (305,388 US$ ha[-1] year[-1]). Under future climate change, rice yields of both farming types are expected to increase under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP6.0, and it will decline under RCP8.5. The SOC and VCSES values are predicted to increase, except under RCP8.5. The dramatic declines can be found from the near future (2020-2039) to the very far future (2080-2099) period. Our finding indicates that even though climate change will have negative effects on SOC and VCSES, the OF will have less impact compared with CF.}, }
@article {pmid33823411, year = {2021}, author = {Pietrapertosa, F and Salvia, M and De Gregorio Hurtado, S and Geneletti, D and D'Alonzo, V and Reckien, D}, title = {Multi-level climate change planning: An analysis of the Italian case.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {289}, number = {}, pages = {112469}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112469}, pmid = {33823411}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Government ; Italy ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {As recognized by the Paris Climate Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), local and subnational regions are crucial actors to achieve international mitigation and adaptation commitments. Scientific literature and empirical evidence point at multi-level climate governance as a crucial factor to engage subnational levels in the achievement of national and international objectives. This work focuses on the multi-level climate governance arrangements in Italy to investigate how Italian regions/provinces/cities are contributing to the achievement of national commitments. To this purpose, the paper undertakes a review of the climate policies of different tiers of government adopted to date and of the interrelationships among them. The results of the analysis show that the effective coordination between the different government levels should be strengthened to further incentivize and support initiatives at the local level. Results also show the relevant role played by international regional and city climate networks in boosting local and regional climate planning in Italy.}, }
@article {pmid33821147, year = {2021}, author = {Kluczkovski, A and Lait, R and Martins, CA and Reynolds, C and Smith, P and Woffenden, Z and Lynch, J and Frankowska, A and Harris, F and Johnson, D and Halford, JCG and Cook, J and Tereza da Silva, J and Schmidt Rivera, X and Huppert, JL and Lord, M and Mclaughlin, J and Bridle, S}, title = {Learning in lockdown: Using the COVID-19 crisis to teach children about food and climate change.}, journal = {Nutrition bulletin}, volume = {46}, number = {2}, pages = {206-215}, pmid = {33821147}, issn = {1471-9827}, abstract = {Food systems are significant sources of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Since emission intensity varies greatly between different foods, changing food choices towards those with lower GHGE could make an important contribution to mitigating climate change. Public engagement events offer an opportunity to communicate these multifaceted issues and raise awareness about the climate change impact of food choices. An interdisciplinary team of researchers was preparing food and climate change educational activities for summer 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown disrupted these plans. In this paper, we report on shifting these events online over the month of June 2020. We discuss what we did and the reception to our online programme. We then reflect on and highlight issues that arose. These relate to: (1) the power dynamics of children, diet and climate change; (2) mental health, diet and COVID-19; (3) engaging the wider science, agriculture and food communities; (4) the benefits of being unfunded and the homemade nature of this programme; (5) the food system, STEAM (science, technology, engineering, arts and mathematics) and diversity; and (6) how our work fits into our ongoing journey of food and climate change education.}, }
@article {pmid33821105, year = {2021}, author = {Von Storch, L and Ley, L and Sun, J}, title = {New climate change activism: before and after the Covid-19 pandemic.}, journal = {Social anthropology : the journal of the European Association of Social Anthropologists = Anthropologie sociale}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {205-209}, pmid = {33821105}, issn = {1469-8676}, }
@article {pmid33818693, year = {2021}, author = {Berberoglu, S and Donmez, C and Cilek, A}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts on regional net primary productivity in Turkey.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {5}, pages = {242}, pmid = {33818693}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {110Y338//T&#xfc;rkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Ara&#x15f;tirma Kurumu/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {This study projects and models the terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) considering the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios of Turkey using remote-sensing-based biogeochemical modelling techniques. Changes in annual NPP between 2000-2010 and 2070-2080 were projected with the biogeochemical ecosystem model NASA-Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA). A multi-temporal data set, including 16-day MODIS composites with a spatial resolution of 250 m, was used within the CASA model. The 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC presented several scenarios for RCPs named RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 that laid the foundation for the future climate projections. The futuristic NPP modelling was based on the assumptions of maintaining CO2 level in the range of 421 to 936 ppm and a rise in temperature from 1.1 to 2.6 °C. The NPP in Turkey averaged 1232 g C m[2] year[-1] as per the model results. Considering 2000-2010 as the baseline period, the NPP was modelled within the range of 9.6 and 316 g C m[2] year[-1]. Modelled average NPP was 1332.4 g C m[2] year[-1] per year between 2061 and 2080. The forest productivity was also estimated to be increased up to 113 g C m[-2] year[-1] under the climate change scenarios. However, there were minor differences in the projected average NPP under the baseline period covering years from 2000 to 2080 from those under RCPs. It appeared that variation in temperature and precipitation as a result of climate change affected the terrestrial NPP. The regional environmental and socio-economic consequences of climate change on diverse landscapes such as Turkey were properly modelled and analysed to understand the spatial variation of climate change impacts on vegetation. Changes in NPP imply that forests in Turkey could be carbon sinks in the future as their current potential that would profile Turkey's climate mitigation. This is one of the pioneering studies to estimate the future changes of regional NPP in Turkey by integrating various spatial inputs and a biogeochemical model.}, }
@article {pmid33813299, year = {2021}, author = {West, TAP and Salekin, S and Melia, N and Wakelin, SJ and Yao, RT and Meason, D}, title = {Diversification of forestry portfolios for climate change and market risk mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {289}, number = {}, pages = {112482}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112482}, pmid = {33813299}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Forestry ; Forests ; New Zealand ; *Pinus ; }, abstract = {Investments in forestry are long-term and thus subject to numerous sources of risk. In addition to the volatility from markets, forestry investments are directly exposed to future impacts from climate change. We examined how diversification of forest management regimes can mitigate the expected risks associated with forestry activities in New Zealand based on an application of Modern Portfolio Theory. Uncertainties in the responses of Pinus radiata (D. Don) productivity to climate change, from 2050 to 2090, were simulated with 3-PG, a process-based forest growth model, based on future climate scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Future timber market scenarios were based on RCP-specific projections from the Global Timber Model and historical log grade prices. Outputs from 3-PG and the market scenarios were combined to compute annualized forestry returns for four P. radiata regimes for 2050-2090. This information was then used to construct optimal forestry portfolios that minimize investment risk for a given target return under different RCPs, forest productivity and market scenarios. While current P. radiata regimes in New Zealand are largely homogenous, our results suggest that regime diversification can mitigate future risks imposed by climate change and market uncertainty. Nevertheless, optimal portfolio compositions varied substantially across our range of scenarios and portfolio objectives. The application of this framework can help forest managers to better account for future risks in their management decisions.}, }
@article {pmid33812115, year = {2021}, author = {Ma, X and Zhu, J and Yan, W and Zhao, C}, title = {Projections of desertification trends in Central Asia under global warming scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {781}, number = {}, pages = {146777}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146777}, pmid = {33812115}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Central Asia (CA) is a core area of global desertification, but the effect of the intensifying "global greening" policy on the desertification process under global warming scenarios in CA remains unclear. Based on multi-source remote sensing data and Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) 2b climate data, this study investigated desertification in CA using actual evapotranspiration (ETa), temperature and precipitation as driving factors. Coupling with the CA-Markov model, the inversion method of desertification was improved, and the evolution normal form of desertification in CA was proposed. Finally, spatio-temporal variations of desertification in CA were quantified. The results indicate that temperature, precipitation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in CA increased during the historical period (1980-2015), with sudden changes in 1994. In contrast, although ETa exhibited fluctuating increases (7.41 mm/10 yr) during this period, no sudden changes were observed in 1994. In the future (2006-2099), the climate of CA will become warmer and wetter. With reference to 1980-2005, precipitation under global warming of 2.0 °C (GW2.0) will be higher than that under global warming of 1.5 °C (GW1.5) by 10.3 mm, and ETa will increase by 20.88 mm and 27.54 mm under GW1.5 and GW2.0, respectively. Although the area of desert lands has decreased (5.94 × 10[4] km[2]/10 yr), the area of potential desert lands has increased (0.17 × 10[4] km[2]/10 yr). With global warming, this situation will continue to intensify, mainly in Xinjiang of China, and Kazakhstan. The Aral Sea plays an important role in the desertification of CA. The potential increase in desert land under GW2.0 is equivalent to the current water area of the Aral Sea. The findings could provide policy support for combating desertification in CA and promoting the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.}, }
@article {pmid33807736, year = {2021}, author = {Alkishe, A and Raghavan, RK and Peterson, AT}, title = {Likely Geographic Distributional Shifts among Medically Important Tick Species and Tick-Associated Diseases under Climate Change in North America: A Review.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {33807736}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {IIA-1920946//National Science Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Ticks rank high among arthropod vectors in terms of numbers of infectious agents that they transmit to humans, including Lyme disease, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Colorado tick fever, human monocytic ehrlichiosis, tularemia, and human granulocytic anaplasmosis. Increasing temperature is suspected to affect tick biting rates and pathogen developmental rates, thereby potentially increasing risk for disease incidence. Tick distributions respond to climate change, but how their geographic ranges will shift in future decades and how those shifts may translate into changes in disease incidence remain unclear. In this study, we have assembled correlative ecological niche models for eight tick species of medical or veterinary importance in North America (Ixodes scapularis, I. pacificus, I. cookei, Dermacentor variabilis, D. andersoni, Amblyomma americanum, A. maculatum, and Rhipicephalus sanguineus), assessing the distributional potential of each under both present and future climatic conditions. Our goal was to assess whether and how species' distributions will likely shift in coming decades in response to climate change. We interpret these patterns in terms of likely implications for tick-associated diseases in North America.}, }
@article {pmid33806758, year = {2021}, author = {Yamori, K and Goltz, JD}, title = {Disasters without Borders: The Coronavirus Pandemic, Global Climate Change and the Ascendancy of Gradual Onset Disasters.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {33806758}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Coronavirus ; *Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; Droughts ; Humans ; Pandemics ; }, abstract = {Throughout much of its history, the sociological study of human communities in disaster has been based on events that occur rapidly, are limited in geographic scope, and their management understood as phased stages of response, recovery, mitigation and preparedness. More recent literature has questioned these concepts, arguing that gradual-onset phenomena like droughts, famines and epidemics merit consideration as disasters and that their exclusion has negative consequences for the communities impacted, public policy in terms of urgency and visibility and for the discipline itself as the analytical tools of sociological research are not brought to bear on these events. We agree that gradual-onset disasters merit greater attention from social scientists and in this paper have addressed the two most significant ongoing disasters that are gradual in onset, global in scope and have caused profound impacts on lives, livelihoods, communities and the governments that must cope with their effects. These disasters are the coronavirus pandemic and global climate change both of which include dimensions that challenge the prevailing definition of disaster. We begin with an examination of the foundational work in the sociological study of a disaster that established a conceptual framework based solely on rapidly occurring disasters. Our focus is on several components of the existing framework for defining and studying disasters, which we term "borders." These borders are temporal, spatial, phasing and positioning, which, in our view, must be reexamined, and to some degree expanded or redefined to accommodate the full range of disasters to which our globalized world is vulnerable. To do so will expand or redefine these borders to incorporate and promote an understanding of significant risks associated with disaster agents that are gradual and potentially catastrophic, global in scope and require international cooperation to manage.}, }
@article {pmid33806462, year = {2021}, author = {Delpla, I and Diallo, TA and Keeling, M and Bellefleur, O}, title = {Tools and Methods to Include Health in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies and Policies: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {33806462}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change represents a serious threat to the health and well-being of populations. Today, many countries, regions, and cities around the world are implementing policies and strategies to adapt to climate change and mitigate its effects. A scoping review was performed to identify tools and methods that help integrate health into climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and strategies. The literature search includes scientific and grey literature. The scientific literature was conducted using PubMed, Elsevier Embase, and Web of Science databases. A grey literature web search was performed to complement the results. A total of 35 studies (28 from the scientific literature and 7 from the grey literature) were finally included. A large majority of research articles (24/28) and almost all reports (6/7) from the grey literature were published after 2010. Results show that the tools that were found most frequently are the nested models (12/35), health impact assessment (6/35), vulnerability and adaptation assessment (3/35), conceptual frameworks (3/35), and mixed methods (3/35). This review shows an increasing interest in the topic of developing tools to better manage health issues in adaptation and mitigation strategies, with a recent increase in the number of publications. Additional analyses of tools' effectiveness should be conducted in further studies.}, }
@article {pmid33804669, year = {2021}, author = {Dupraz, J and Burnand, B}, title = {Role of Health Professionals Regarding the Impact of Climate Change on Health-An Exploratory Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {33804669}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; Negotiating ; }, abstract = {Health professionals are increasingly urged to act to protect individuals and populations against the negative effects of climate and environment change on health. However, the amount of evidence supporting initiatives to that end is unknown. We explored the literature examining the awareness, preparedness, and role of healthcare professionals to inform about the impact of climate change on health on the one hand, and literature about the effectiveness of interventions mediated by health professionals aiming at reducing the environmental impact of human activities on the other hand. We included 137 articles published between 2000 and 2020, mostly in general medical and nursing journals. The typical article was a perspective, commentary, or other special article aimed at alerting readers about the impact of climate and environment change on health. We identified 22 studies, of which only two reported interventions. Despite increasing efforts of health professionals to address climate and environment change and related health risks, health literature supporting such efforts remains scarce, and studies assessing the effectiveness of interventions are lacking. We need appropriate evidence to indicate which interventions should be prioritized, considering that the association of health issues with climate and environment change could constitute an effective lever for change.}, }
@article {pmid33803956, year = {2021}, author = {Kong, F and Sun, S}, title = {Better Understanding Insurance Mechanism in Dealing with Climate Change Risk, with Special Reference to China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {33803956}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Insurance ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change risk has become an important challenge for global sustainable development. The insurance industry can play an important role in coping with the increasingly severe climate change risk. This paper first describes the increasing climate change risk and the difficulties of the insurance mechanism in dealing with it. Then this paper summarizes the international practice of using the insurance mechanism to deal with climate change risk from ten different aspects. Based on the summary of the role of the insurance mechanism in dealing with this risk in developing countries, this paper puts forward the main application areas for climate change risk insurance and discusses the policy implications of developing climate change risk insurance in China.}, }
@article {pmid33803377, year = {2021}, author = {Li, C and Li, Z and Yang, M and Ma, B and Wang, B}, title = {Grid-Scale Impact of Climate Change and Human Influence on Soil Erosion within East African Highlands (Kagera Basin).}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {33803377}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Rwanda ; Soil ; Soil Erosion ; Tanzania ; }, abstract = {Under global climate change and pressure from human activities, soil erosion is becoming a major concern in the quest for regional sustainable development in the Kagera basin (KB). However, few studies in this region have comprehensively considered the impact of climate change and human influence on soil erosion, and the associated processes are unclear. Based on the premise of quantifying climate change, human influence, and soil erosion, this study undertook a neighborhood analysis as the theoretical support, for a grey relation analysis which was conducted to realize the qualitative assessment of the influence of climate change and human activities on soil erosion. The results show that 90.32% of the KB saw climate change as having a greater influence on soil erosion than human influence, with the remaining area 9.68% seeing human influence having a greater impact than climate change, mainly as a result of the effect of rangeland and farmland. The average soil erosion rate of the KB shows a very low level (10.54 t ha[-1] yr[-1]), with rangeland and farmland being the main land use/land cover (LULC) types that see soil loss, followed by forest, wetland, and built-up areas. The climate change trends of the KB show the most dramatic changes in the northeast and southwest, gradually decreasing towards the line crossing from the Birunga National Park (Rwanda) to the Keza district (Tanzania). The human influence intensity (HII) shows a high level in the KB (21.93), where it is higher in the west and lower in the east of the basin.}, }
@article {pmid33802715, year = {2021}, author = {Buist, Y and Bekker, M and Vaandrager, L and Koelen, M}, title = {Understanding Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change: An Explorative Study on the Development of Adaptation Strategies Relating to the Oak Processionary Moth in The Netherlands.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {33802715}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Moths ; Netherlands ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Understanding of public health adaptation (PHA) to climate change and implementation is limited. This study therefore focuses on one specific PHA issue: adaptation to the oak processionary moth (OPM). The aim is to examine the development of OPM adaptation in order to offer a problem description of the complexities involved in OPM adaptation. In this explorative case study, we investigate adaptation strategies based on semi-structured interviews with 26 actors involved in OPM adaptation in The Netherlands. The results indicate that the context of OPM adaptation is relatively complex, given the involvement of many interdependent actors. OPM adaptation was developed with limited knowledge and strategies were based on ad hoc approaches in which there was ambiguity about tasks and expertise. In addition, different actors have different perceptions and values concerning health, sustainability, risks and responsibilities influencing decision-making processes, while also posing a challenge to collaboration and the development of a coordinated approach. The generation of knowledge and its translation into practical strategies calls for interdisciplinary cooperation in knowledge development. PHA adaptation involves more than technical and organisational solutions alone. It also entails the development of a shared problem perception and solution space in which citizens are also engaged.}, }
@article {pmid33802347, year = {2021}, author = {Bikomeye, JC and Rublee, CS and Beyer, KMM}, title = {Positive Externalities of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Human Health: A Review and Conceptual Framework for Public Health Research.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {33802347}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Public Health ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is adversely impacting people and contributing to suffering and increased costs from climate-related diseases and injuries. In responding to this urgent and growing public health crisis, mitigation strategies are in place to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) while adaptation strategies exist to reduce and/or alleviate the adverse effects of climate change by increasing systems' resilience to future impacts. While these strategies have numerous positive benefits on climate change itself, they also often have other positive externalities or health co-benefits. This knowledge can be harnessed to promote and improve global public health, particularly for the most vulnerable populations. Previous conceptual models in mitigation and adaptation studies such as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) considered health in the thinking, but health outcomes were not their primary intention. Additionally, existing guidance documents such as the World Health Organization (WHO) Guidance for Climate Resilient and Environmentally Sustainable Health Care Facilities is designed primarily for public health professionals or healthcare managers in hospital settings with a primary focus on resilience. However, a detailed cross sectoral and multidisciplinary conceptual framework, which links mitigation and adaptation strategies with health outcomes as a primary end point, has not yet been developed to guide research in this area. In this paper, we briefly summarize the burden of climate change on global public health, describe important mitigation and adaptation strategies, and present key health benefits by giving context specific examples from high, middle, and low-income settings. We then provide a conceptual framework to inform future global public health research and preparedness across sectors and disciplines and outline key stakeholders recommendations in promoting climate resilient systems and advancing health equity.}, }
@article {pmid33802148, year = {2021}, author = {Delgado-Ospina, J and Molina-Hernández, JB and Chaves-López, C and Romanazzi, G and Paparella, A}, title = {The Role of Fungi in the Cocoa Production Chain and the Challenge of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {33802148}, issn = {2309-608X}, support = {C. 808-2018. Agreement 240-2019. Number 123280864259.//Colciencias, Patrimonio Aut&#xf3;nomo Fondo Nacional de Financiamiento para la Ciencia, la Tecnolog&#xed;a y la Innovaci&#xf3;n Francisco Jos&#xe9; de Caldas/ ; }, abstract = {The role of fungi in cocoa crops is mainly associated with plant diseases and contamination of harvest with unwanted metabolites such as mycotoxins that can reach the final consumer. However, in recent years there has been interest in discovering other existing interactions in the environment that may be beneficial, such as antagonism, commensalism, and the production of specific enzymes, among others. Scope and approach: This review summarizes the different fungi species involved in cocoa production and the cocoa supply chain. In particular, it examines the presence of fungal species during cultivation, harvest, fermentation, drying, and storage, emphasizing the factors that possibly influence their prevalence in the different stages of production and the health risks associated with the production of mycotoxins in the light of recent literature. Key findings and conclusion: Fungi associated with the cocoa production chain have many different roles. They have evolved in a varied range of ecosystems in close association with plants and various habitats, affecting nearly all the cocoa chain steps. Reports of the isolation of 60 genera of fungi were found, of which only 19 were involved in several stages. Although endophytic fungi can help control some diseases caused by pathogenic fungi, climate change, with increased rain and temperatures, together with intensified exchanges, can favour most of these fungal infections, and the presence of highly aggressive new fungal genotypes increasing the concern of mycotoxin production. For this reason, mitigation strategies need to be determined to prevent the spread of disease-causing fungi and preserve beneficial ones.}, }
@article {pmid33800740, year = {2021}, author = {Vercelli, M and Novelli, S and Ferrazzi, P and Lentini, G and Ferracini, C}, title = {A Qualitative Analysis of Beekeepers' Perceptions and Farm Management Adaptations to the Impact of Climate Change on Honey Bees.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {33800740}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {(1) Background: Bees are the primary animal pollinators in most ecosystems, and honey bees (Apis mellifera L.) are important providers of pollination ecosystem services and products. Climate change is one of the major threats for honey bees. (2) Objectives and methods: Qualitative research using focus group discussions was carried out in northwestern Italy, to investigate the beekeepers' perceptions of climate change effects, the relevant management adaptations, and the main issues affecting the sector. (3) Results: Beekeepers reported several consequences related to severe weather events (weakening or loss of colonies; scarcity of nectar, pollen, and honeydew; decrease or lack of honey and other bee products; greater infestation by varroa; decline in pollination), making it necessary to provide supplemental sugar feeding, intensive transhumance, more effective and sustainable techniques for varroa control, and increased production of nuclei. A strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis was completed, displaying the factors able to strengthen or weaken the resilience of the beekeeping sector to climate change. (4) Conclusions: Thanks to their strong motivation and collaborative attitude, beekeepers succeed in adopting farm and bee hive adaptation strategies that are able to limit the climatic adverse effects. However, these findings highlight how the institutional and financial support for the beekeeping sector should be strengthened and better targeted.}, }
@article {pmid33800231, year = {2021}, author = {Lee, CM and Lee, DS and Kwon, TS and Athar, M and Park, YS}, title = {Predicting the Global Distribution of Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) under Climate Change Using the MaxEnt Model.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {33800231}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {FTIS 2017042A00-1823-CA01//Korea Forest Service (Korea Forestry Promotion Institute)/ ; }, abstract = {The tropical fire ant Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is a serious invasive species that causes a decline in agricultural production, damages infrastructure, and harms human health. This study was aimed to develop a model using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to predict the current and future distribution of S. geminata on a global scale for effective monitoring and management. In total, 669 occurrence sites of S. geminata and six bioclimatic variables of current and future climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2100 were used for the modeling. The annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the driest quarter were the key influential factors for determining the distribution of S. geminata. Although the potential global distribution area of S. geminata is predicted to decrease slightly under global warming, the distribution of favorable habitats is predicted to expand to high latitudes under climate scenarios. In addition, some countries in America and East Asia, such as Brazil, China, South Korea, the USA, and Uruguay, are predicted to be threatened by S. geminata invasion under future climate change. These findings can facilitate the proactive management of S. geminata through monitoring, surveillance, and quarantine measures.}, }
@article {pmid33799984, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, Y and Yan, J and Cheng, X and He, X}, title = {Wetland Changes and Their Relation to Climate Change in the Pumqu Basin, Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {33799984}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Rivers ; Tibet ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Wetland ecosystems play one of the most crucial roles in the world. Wetlands have the functions of ecological water storage, water supply, and climate regulation, which plays an indispensable role in global environmental security. The Pumqu River Basin (PRB) is located in an area with extremely vulnerable ecological environment, where climate change is obvious. Understanding wetland distribution, changes and causes in the PRB are of great importance to the rational management and protection of wetlands. Using the Landsat series satellite images, wetlands of this area in 2000, 2010, and 2018 were extracted. The results showed that (1) there were obvious regional differences in wetland types and their distribution patterns in the basin. Wetlands were mainly distributed in areas with slopes less than 12° and at elevations between 4000 m and 5500 m. (2) During the past 20 years, the wetland area in the basin decreased, and the changing trend of wetlands was different. Palustrine wetlands decreased tremendously, riverine and lacustrine wetlands first decreased and then increased, while floodplain wetlands first increased and then decreased. Palustrine wetlands were reclaimed to cultivated land, but the proportion of reclamation is small. (3) Climate dominated wetland changes in the PRB. The changes in riverine and lacustrine wetlands were mainly affected by the warm-season average temperature, the change in palustrine wetlands was mainly related to the annual precipitation and the warm-season average temperature, and the change in floodplain wetlands was related to the warm-season precipitation. To achieve sustainable development, the government plays a guiding role and actively formulates and implements wetland protection policies, such as restricting or prohibiting grazing on wetlands, which play an important role in wetland protection and restoration.}, }
@article {pmid33797836, year = {2021}, author = {Hermoso, V and Regos, A and Morán-Ordóñez, A and Duane, A and Brotons, L}, title = {Tree planting: A double-edged sword to fight climate change in an era of megafires.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {13}, pages = {3001-3003}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15625}, pmid = {33797836}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Europe ; Forests ; Humans ; *Trees ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Climate regulation strategies based on forest restoration could pose an increase in fire risk, especially under drier and warmer conditions over large regions of Europe, impacting climate, the environment and human health. Climate-smarter options, such as wetlands restoration or recovery of grassland, that provide similar benefits for climate but also develop less flammable landscape is a more suitable option for these regions in Europe and elsewhere facing similar challenges.}, }
@article {pmid33796246, year = {2021}, author = {Pappo, E and Wilson, C and Flory, SL}, title = {Hybrid coffee cultivars may enhance agroecosystem resilience to climate change.}, journal = {AoB PLANTS}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {plab010}, pmid = {33796246}, issn = {2041-2851}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns that will be detrimental for global agriculture. Developing comprehensive strategies for building climate resilient agroecosystems is critical for maintaining future crop production. Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is highly sensitive to the quantity and timing of precipitation, so alterations in precipitation patterns that are predicted under climate change are likely to be a major challenge for maintaining coffee agroecosystems. We assessed cultivar selection as a potential component of more resilient coffee agroecosystems by evaluating water stress responses among five Arabica coffee cultivars (clonal hybrids H10 and H1 and seedling lines Catuai 44, Catuai, and Villa Sarchi) using a precipitation reduction experiment in the highlands of Tarrazú, Costa Rica. During the first harvest (eighteen months after planting), plants under the rainout treatment had 211 % greater total fruit weight and over 50 % greater biomass than under the control treatment, potentially due to protection from unusually high rainfall during this period of our experiment. At the second harvest (30 months after planting), after a year of more typical rainfall, plants under rainout still produced 66 % more fruit by weight than under control. The magnitude of the responses varied among cultivars where, at the first harvest, H10 and H1 had approximately 92 % and 81 % greater fruit production and 18 % and 22 % greater biomass, respectively, and at the second harvest H10 had 60 % more fruit production than the overall average. Thus, our findings suggest that the hybrid lines H10 and H1 are more resilient than the other cultivars to the stress of high soil moisture. Overall, our results indicate that stress due to higher than average rainfall could impair coffee plant growth and production, and that cultivar selection is likely to be an important tool for maintaining the viability of coffee production, and the resilience of global agroecosystems more generally, under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33793039, year = {2021}, author = {Petherick, AS and Reuther, JD and Shirar, SJ and Anderson, SL and DeSantis, LRG}, title = {Dietary ecology of Alaskan polar bears (Ursus maritimus) through time and in response to Arctic climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {13}, pages = {3109-3119}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15573}, pmid = {33793039}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Alaska ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Diet ; Ecosystem ; Ice Cover ; *Ursidae ; }, abstract = {Arctic climate change poses serious threats to polar bears (Ursus maritimus) as reduced sea ice makes seal prey inaccessible and marine ecosystems undergo bottom-up reorganization. Polar bears' elongated skulls and reduced molar dentition, as compared to their sister species the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos), are adaptations associated with hunting seals on sea ice and a soft, lipid-rich diet of blubber and meat. With significant declines in sea ice, it is unclear if and how polar bears may be altering their diets. Clarifying polar bear dietary responses to changing climates, both today and in the past, is critical to proper conservation and management of this apex predator. This is particularly important when a dietary strategy may be maladaptive. Here, we test the hypothesis that hard-food consumption (i.e., less preferred foods including bone), inferred from dental microwear texture analysis, increased with Arctic warming. We find that polar bears demonstrate a conserved absence of hard-object feeding in Alaska through time (including approximately 1000 years ago), until the 21st century, consistent with a highly conserved and specialized diet of soft blubber and flesh. Notably, our results also suggest that some 21st-century polar bears may be consuming harder foods (e.g., increased carcass utilization, terrestrial foods including garbage), despite having skulls and metabolisms poorly suited for such a diet. Prior to the 21st century, only polar bears with larger mandibles demonstrated increased hard-object feeding, though to a much lower degree than closely related grizzly bears which regularly consume mechanically challenging foods. Polar bears, being morphologically specialized, have biomechanical constraints which may limit their ability to consume mechanically challenging diets, with dietary shifts occurring only under the most extreme scenarios. Collectively, the highly specialized diets and cranial morphology of polar bears may severely limit their ability to adapt to a warming Arctic.}, }
@article {pmid33790289, year = {2021}, author = {Naughten, KA and De Rydt, J and Rosier, SHR and Jenkins, A and Holland, PR and Ridley, JK}, title = {Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1991}, pmid = {33790289}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty as to how easily it could occur. Here, we show, using a coupled ice sheet-ocean model forced by climate change scenarios, that any increase in ice shelf melting is likely to be preceded by an extended period of reduced melting. Climate change weakens the circulation beneath the ice shelf, leading to colder water and reduced melting. Warm water begins to intrude into the cavity when global mean surface temperatures rise by approximately 7 °C above pre-industrial, which is unlikely to occur this century. However, this result should not be considered evidence that the region is unconditionally stable. Unless global temperatures plateau, increased melting will eventually prevail.}, }
@article {pmid33790012, year = {2021}, author = {Benati, G and Guerriero, C}, title = {Climate change and state evolution.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {33790012}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Despite the vast evidence on the short-run effects of adverse climate shocks on the economy, our understanding of their long-run impact on institutions is limited. To tackle such a key issue, a vast body of research has focused on ancient societies because of the limited complexity of their economies and their unparalleled experience with environmental and institutional change. Notably, the "collapse archaeology" literature has reported countless correlations consistent with the mantra that severe droughts are bound to trigger institutional crises. This conclusion, however, has been recently challenged by a stream of papers that, building on more detailed data on Bronze Age Mesopotamia and a more credible theory-based empirical strategy, have yielded the following two results. First, severe droughts pushed the elites to grant strong political and property rights to the nonelites to convince them that a sufficient part of the returns on joint investments would be shared via public good provision and, thus, to cooperate and accumulate a culture of cooperation. Second, a more favorable climate allowed the elites to elicit cooperation under less inclusive political regimes as well as a weaker culture of cooperation and, possibly, incomplete property rights. These patterns emphasize the importance of considering the asymmetric effect of droughts and, more generally, combining natural and social sciences for the evaluation of climate-related policies.}, }
@article {pmid33785976, year = {2021}, author = {van Dalen, HP and Henkens, K}, title = {Population and Climate Change: Consensus and Dissensus among Demographers.}, journal = {European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie}, volume = {37}, number = {3}, pages = {551-567}, pmid = {33785976}, issn = {0168-6577}, abstract = {What role does population play in thinking about the problem of climate change and some of its solutions? In a survey conducted between February and April 2020, we asked European demographers to state their views on the relationship between climate change and population developments, and asked them to rate their concern about climate change and other socio-demographic issues. We found that climate change is at the top of the list of demographers' concerns, but that their sense of urgency with respect to taking action to redress global warming is not matched by their belief that population policy can make a crucial difference in reducing CO2 emissions: demographers are highly divided on the question whether the global population size should be reduced to lower CO2 emissions, as well as on the question whether family planning is an effective policy instrument.}, }
@article {pmid33785915, year = {2021}, author = {Müller, T}, title = {People of faith are allies to stall climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {592}, number = {7852}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-00808-3}, pmid = {33785915}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Child ; *Cooperative Behavior ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Leadership ; *Religion and Science ; Research Personnel ; Social Problems/prevention &amp; control/psychology ; Sustainable Development/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid33784307, year = {2021}, author = {Neate-Clegg, MHC and Stuart, SN and Mtui, D and Şekercioğlu, &#xc7;H and Newmark, WD}, title = {Afrotropical montane birds experience upslope shifts and range contractions along a fragmented elevational gradient in response to global warming.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {e0248712}, pmid = {33784307}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Altitude ; *Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Forests ; *Global Warming ; Tanzania ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Global warming is predicted to result in upslope shifts in the elevational ranges of bird species in montane habitats. Yet few studies have examined changes over time in the elevational distribution of species along fragmented gradients in response to global warming. Here, we report on a resurvey of an understory bird community in the Usambara Mountains in Tanzania, along a forested elevational gradient that has been fragmented over the last 200 years. In 2019, we resurveyed seven sites, ranging in elevation from 360 m to 2110 m, that were originally surveyed between 1979 and 1981. We calculated differences in mean elevation and lower and upper range limits for 29 species between the two time periods and corrected for possible differences in elevation due to chance. Over four decades, we documented a significant mean upslope shift across species of 93 m. This shift was smaller than the 125 m expected shift due to local climate warming. Of the 29 focal species, 19 shifted upslope, eight downslope, and two remained unchanged. Mean upslope shifts in species were driven largely by contracting lower range limits which moved significantly upslope on average across species by 183 m, while upper range limits shifted non-significantly upslope by 72 m, leading to a mean range contraction of 114 m across species. Community composition of understory bird species also shifted over time, with current communities resembling communities found historically at lower elevations. Past forest fragmentation in combination with the limited gap-crossing ability of many tropical understory bird species are very likely important contributory factors to the observed asymmetrical shifts in lower and upper elevational range limits. Re-establishing forested linkages among the largest and closest forest fragments in the Eastern Arc Mountains are critical to permitting species to shift upslope and to reduce further elevational range contractions over time.}, }
@article {pmid33782824, year = {2021}, author = {Mele, M and Gurrieri, AR and Morelli, G and Magazzino, C}, title = {Nature and climate change effects on economic growth: an LSTM experiment on renewable energy resources.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {30}, pages = {41127-41134}, pmid = {33782824}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; *Economic Development ; Humans ; RNA, Viral ; Renewable Energy ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {Global energy demand increases overtime, especially in emerging market economies, producing potential negative environmental impacts, particularly on the long term, on nature and climate changes. Promoting renewables is a robust policy action in world energy-based economies. This study examines if an increase in renewables production has a positive effect on the Brazilian economy, partially offsetting the SARS-CoV2 outbreak recession. Using data on Brazilian economy, we test the contribution of renewables on the economy via a ML architecture (through a LSTM model). Empirical findings show that an ever-greater use of renewables may sustain the economic growth recovery, generating a better performing GDP acceleration vs. other energy variables.}, }
@article {pmid33782787, year = {2021}, author = {Jayasinghe, SL and Kumar, L and Kaliyadasa, E}, title = {The future of high-quality Ceylon tea seems bleak in the face of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {65}, number = {10}, pages = {1629-1646}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-021-02118-9}, pmid = {33782787}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Camellia sinensis ; Climate Change ; Plant Leaves ; Sri Lanka ; Tea ; }, abstract = {Understanding the interactive effects and relationships between biochemical elements of tea leaves and the related factors, particularly climatic, cultivar, and geographic, is key for high-quality Ceylon tea production. The objectives of this study were to (1) investigate the effects of season × cultivar × agro-ecological regions (AERs) on the four tested biochemicals in fresh tea leaves, total polyphenol content (TPC), free sugar, protein, and theanine; (2) determine the relationships between, and develop a model to estimate, the biochemicals and their related factors; and (3) project the potential concentrations and distributions of four tested biochemicals in tea leaves with respect to the current and future climate. This study primarily uses inferential statistics via the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), cross-validation using R software, and the inverse distance weighting (IDW) approach in ArcGIS. The results demonstrate that the season, cultivar (Ceylon tea cultivars of TRI 2025 and TRI 4053), and AER and their interactions on biochemicals have significant effects (p < 0.05). The models derived in the regression analysis demonstrate the strong relationships between the independent variables and the biochemicals, with multiple correlation coefficients (R) around 0.8 and coefficient of determination (R[2]) around 0.6. The low standard deviation of error of prediction (SDEP < 0.1) and the high correlation coefficient of leave-one-out cross-validation (Q[2]) for all four biochemicals ranged from 0.56 to 0.61, which signifies the predictive ability of the models. The future projections show a considerable increase in the thresholds of all tested biochemicals. The distribution category with 'very high' concentrations of TPC and theanine is predicted to increase in the future by averages of 10% and 14%, respectively, while reducing the classes of protein and free sugar by 14% and 12%, respectively. Overall, the changing concentrations of the thresholds of relevant biochemicals and their distribution will negatively affect the final quality of tea, and these variations indicate that climate change has started to diminish Ceylon tea quality.}, }
@article {pmid33782450, year = {2021}, author = {Mainuddin, M and Karim, F and Gaydon, DS and Kirby, JM}, title = {Impact of climate change and management strategies on water and salt balance of the polders and islands in the Ganges delta.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {7041}, pmid = {33782450}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Enhancing crop production, particularly by growing a crop in the typically-fallow dry season is a key strategy for alleviating poverty in the Ganges delta region. We used a polder water and salt balance model to examine the impact of several crop management, salt management and climate change scenarios on salinity and crop evapotranspiration at Dacope and Amtali in Bangladesh and Gosaba in India. A key (and unsurprising) finding is that salt management is very important, particularly at the two drier sites, Dacope and Gosaba. Good salt management lowers salinity in the shallow groundwater, soil and water storage ponds, and leads to more irrigation. Climate change is projected to alter rainfall, and this in turn leads to modelled increases or decreases in runoff from the polders, and thence affect salt concentrations in the soil and ponds and canals. Thus, the main impacts of climate change are through the indirect impacts on salt concentrations, rather than the direct impacts of the amount of water supplied as rainfall. Management practices to remove salt from polders are therefore likely to be effective in combatting the impacts of projected climate change particularly at Dacope and Gosaba.}, }
@article {pmid33781300, year = {2021}, author = {Borevitz, J}, title = {Utilizing genomics to understand and respond to global climate change.}, journal = {Genome biology}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {91}, doi = {10.1186/s13059-021-02317-y}, pmid = {33781300}, issn = {1474-760X}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Genomics/methods ; }, }
@article {pmid33781235, year = {2021}, author = {Cameron, L and Rocque, R and Penner, K and Mauro, I}, title = {Public perceptions of Lyme disease and climate change in southern Manitoba, Canada: making a case for strategic decoupling of climate and health messages.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {617}, pmid = {33781235}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {1819-HQ-000156//Public Health Agency of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Canada/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Lyme Disease/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Manitoba/epidemiology ; Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Despite scientific evidence that climate change has profound and far reaching implications for public health, translating this knowledge in a manner that supports citizen engagement, applied decision-making, and behavioural change can be challenging. This is especially true for complex vector-borne zoonotic diseases such as Lyme disease, a tick-borne disease which is increasing in range and impact across Canada and internationally in large part due to climate change. This exploratory research aims to better understand public risk perceptions of climate change and Lyme disease in order to increase engagement and motivate behavioural change.<br><br>METHODS: A focus group study involving 61 participants was conducted in three communities in the Canadian Prairie province of Manitoba in 2019. Focus groups were segmented by urban, rural, and urban-rural geographies, and between participants with high and low levels of self-reported concern regarding climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: Findings indicate a broad range of knowledge and risk perceptions on both climate change and Lyme disease, which seem to reflect the controversy and complexity of both issues in the larger public discourse. Participants in high climate concern groups were found to have greater climate change knowledge, higher perception of risk, and less skepticism than those in low concern groups. Participants outside of the urban centre were found to have more familiarity with ticks, Lyme disease, and preventative behaviours, identifying differential sources of resilience and vulnerability. Risk perceptions of climate change and Lyme disease were found to vary independently rather than correlate, meaning that high climate change risk perception did not necessarily indicate high Lyme disease risk perception and vice versa.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This research contributes to the growing literature framing climate change as a public health issue, and suggests that in certain cases climate and health messages might be framed in a way that strategically decouples the issue when addressing climate skeptical audiences. A model showing the potential relationship between Lyme disease and climate change perceptions is proposed, and implications for engagement on climate change health impacts are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid33777720, year = {2021}, author = {Harries, AD and Martinez, L and Chakaya, JM}, title = {Tackling climate change: measuring the carbon footprint of preventing, diagnosing and treating TB.}, journal = {Public health action}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {40}, pmid = {33777720}, issn = {2220-8372}, }
@article {pmid33777514, year = {2021}, author = {Moroz, M and Jackson, ISC and Ramirez, D and Kemp, ME}, title = {Divergent morphological responses to millennia of climate change in two species of bats from Hall's Cave, Texas, USA.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {e10856}, pmid = {33777514}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {How species will respond to ongoing and future climate change is one of the most important questions facing biodiversity scientists today. The fossil record provides unparalleled insight into past ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change, but the resource remains virtually untapped for many organisms. We use geometric morphometrics and a 25,000 year fossil record to quantify changes in body size and mandible shape through time and across climate regimes for two bat species present in Quaternary paleontological deposits of central Texas: Myotis velifer, a bat distributed throughout the Southwestern US and Mexico that is still found in central Texas today, and Eptesicus fuscus, a bat widely distributed throughout North America that has been extirpated in central Texas. Because of ecogeographic rules like Bergmann's rule, which posits that endotherms are larger in colder environments, we hypothesized that both species were larger during cooler time intervals. Additionally, we hypothesized that both species would show variation in dental morphology across the studied sequence as a response to climate change. While we found a decrease in centroid size-a proxy for --body size-through time for both species, we could not establish a clear relationship between centroid size and temperature alone. However, we did find that specimens from drier environments were significantly larger than those from wetter ones. Furthermore, we found significant dental shape variation between environments reflecting different temperature levels for both species. Yet only M. velifer exhibited significant variation between environments of varying precipitation levels. This result was surprising because present-day populations of E. fuscus are highly variable across both temperature and precipitation gradients. We determined that the morphological change experienced by M. velifer through time, and between warmer and cooler temperatures, was associated with the coronoid process, condylar process, and the mandibular symphysis. These parts play a pivotal role in bite force, so changes in these features might relate to changes in diet. We show that long-term datasets derived from fossil material provide invaluable insight not only into the validity of ecogeographic rules, but also into the adaptive capacities of extant taxa when faced with environmental changes. Our results highlight diverging responses to a variety of climate factors that are relevant to consider in biodiversity research given ongoing global change.}, }
@article {pmid33776958, year = {2021}, author = {Geml, J and Morgado, LN and Semenova-Nelsen, TA}, title = {Tundra Type Drives Distinct Trajectories of Functional and Taxonomic Composition of Arctic Fungal Communities in Response to Climate Change - Results From Long-Term Experimental Summer Warming and Increased Snow Depth.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {628746}, pmid = {33776958}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {The arctic tundra is undergoing climate-driven changes and there are serious concerns related to the future of arctic biodiversity and altered ecological processes under possible climate change scenarios. Arctic land surface temperatures and precipitation are predicted to increase further, likely causing major transformation in terrestrial ecosystems. As a response to increasing temperatures, shifts in vegetation and soil fungal communities have already been observed. Little is known, however, how long-term experimental warming coupled with increased snow depth influence the trajectories of soil fungal communities in different tundra types. We compared edaphic variables and fungal community composition in experimental plots simulating the expected increase in summer warming and winter snow depth, based on DNA metabarcoding data. Fungal communities in the sampled dry and moist acidic tundra communities differed greatly, with tundra type explaining ca. one-third of compositional variation. Furthermore, dry and moist tundra appear to have different trajectories in response to climate change. Specifically, while both warming and increased snow depth had significant effects on fungal community composition and edaphic variables in dry tundra, the effect of increased snow was greater. However, in moist tundra, fungal communities mainly were affected by summer warming, while increased snow depth had a smaller effect and only on some functional groups. In dry tundra, microorganisms generally are limited by moisture in the summer and extremely low temperatures in winter, which is in agreement with the stronger effect of increased snow depth relative to warming. On the contrary, moist tundra soils generally are saturated with water, remain cold year-round and show relatively small seasonal fluctuations in temperature. The greater observed effect of warming on fungi in moist tundra may be explained by the narrower temperature optimum compared to those in dry tundra.}, }
@article {pmid33773840, year = {2021}, author = {Cabrera López, C and Urrutia Landa, I and Jiménez-Ruiz, CA}, title = {SEPAR's Year: Air Quality. SEPAR Statement on Climate Change.}, journal = {Archivos de bronconeumologia}, volume = {57}, number = {5}, pages = {313-314}, doi = {10.1016/j.arbres.2021.03.003}, pmid = {33773840}, issn = {2173-5751}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid33773210, year = {2021}, author = {Montoya, M and Vallejo, A and Corrochano-Monsalve, M and Aguilera, E and Sanz-Cobena, A and Ginés, C and González-Murua, C and Álvarez, JM and Guardia, G}, title = {Mitigation of yield-scaled nitrous oxide emissions and global warming potential in an oilseed rape crop through N source management.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {288}, number = {}, pages = {112304}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112304}, pmid = {33773210}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Brassica napus ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Global Warming ; *Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Enhanced-efficiency nitrogen (N) fertilizers, such as those containing nitrification or urease inhibitors, can mitigate the carbon (C) footprint linked to the production of bioenergy crops through a reduction in direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and indirect N2O losses. These indirect emissions are derived from ammonia (NH3) volatilization, which also have important environmental and health implications. The evaluation of the global warming potential (GWP) of different N sources using site-specific data of yield and direct and indirect emissions is needed for oilseed rape under rainfed semi-arid conditions, especially when meteorological variability is taken into account. Using urea as a N source, the N2O mitigation efficacy of the urease inhibitor N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT) alone or combined with the nitrification inhibitor 2-(3,4-dimethyl-1H-pyrazol-1-yl) succinic acid isomeric mixture (DMPSA) was evaluated under field conditions in a rainfed oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) crop. Two additional N sources from calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN), with and without DMPSA, were included. The GWP of the treatments was estimated considering the emissions from inputs, operations and other direct and indirect emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as methane (CH4) and the volatilization of NH3. We also measured the abundance of key genes involved in nitrification and denitrification to improve the understanding of N2O emissions on a biochemical basis under the conditions of our study. The results show that due to the intense rainfall after fertilization and a rewetting event, N2O losses from fertilizers without inhibitors were greater than those previously reported under Mediterranean conditions, while NH3 losses were low and not affected by the urease inhibitor. The cumulative N2O emissions (which were greatly influenced by a rewetting peak three months after fertilization) from the urea fertilization were significantly higher than those from CAN. The presence of NBPT significantly reduced N2O losses by an average of 71%, with respect to urea. The use of DMPSA with CAN resulted in an abatement of N2O emissions (by 57%) and a significant increase in oil yield in comparison with CAN alone. All inhibitor-based treatments were effective in abating N2O emissions during the rewetting peak. The abundances of the nitrifier and denitrifier communities, especially ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB), significantly decreased relative to the urea or CAN treatments as inhibitors were applied. Under the conditions of our study, the sustainability of a bioenergy crop such as oilseed rape can be improved by using inhibitors because they mitigated N2O emissions and/or enhanced the oil yield.}, }
@article {pmid33772674, year = {2020}, author = {Weinstein, P and Daszak, P}, title = {Failing Efforts to Mitigate Climate Change are a Futile Band-Aid that will not Stop Other Elephants Filling the Room.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {421-423}, pmid = {33772674}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid33771862, year = {2021}, author = {Kurganskiy, A and Creer, S and de Vere, N and Griffith, GW and Osborne, NJ and Wheeler, BW and McInnes, RN and Clewlow, Y and Barber, A and Brennan, GL and Hanlon, HM and Hegarty, M and Potter, C and Rowney, F and Adams-Groom, B and Petch, GM and Pashley, CH and Satchwell, J and de Weger, LA and Rasmussen, K and Oliver, G and Sindt, C and Bruffaerts, N and ,  and Skjøth, CA}, title = {Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {7}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {33771862}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.}, }
@article {pmid33771163, year = {2021}, author = {Luo, Z and Wang, X and Yang, S and Cheng, X and Liu, Y and Hu, J}, title = {Combining the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change for an East Asian endemic frog.}, journal = {Frontiers in zoology}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {14}, pmid = {33771163}, issn = {1742-9994}, support = {32071497//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 32071544//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 31770568//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 31770427//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2013FY111500//Technology Basic Work Program/ ; //'Light of West China' Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Understanding the impacts of past and contemporary climate change on biodiversity is critical for effective conservation. Amphibians have weak dispersal abilities, putting them at risk of habitat fragmentation and loss. Both climate change and anthropogenic disturbances exacerbate these risks, increasing the likelihood of additional amphibian extinctions in the near future. The giant spiny frog (Quasipaa spinosa), an endemic species to East Asia, has faced a dramatic population decline over the last few decades. Using the giant spiny frog as an indicator to explore how past and future climate changes affect landscape connectivity, we characterized the shifts in the suitable habitat and habitat connectivity of the frog.<br><br>RESULTS: We found a clear northward shift and a reduction in the extent of suitable habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum for giant spiny frogs; since that time, there has been an expansion of the available habitat. Our modelling showed that "overwarm" climatic conditions would most likely cause a decrease in the available habitat and an increase in the magnitude of population fragmentation in the future. We found that the habitat connectivity of the studied frogs will decrease by 50-75% under future climate change. Our results strengthen the notion that the mountains in southern China and the Sino-Vietnamese transboundary regions can act as critical refugia and priority areas of conservation planning going forward.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Given that amphibians are highly sensitive to environmental changes, our findings highlight that the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change can be critical considerations in future conservation measures for species with weak dispersal abilities and should not be neglected, as they all too often are.}, }
@article {pmid33770871, year = {2021}, author = {Khalili, P and Masud, B and Qian, B and Mezbahuddin, S and Dyck, M and Faramarzi, M}, title = {Non-stationary response of rain-fed spring wheat yield to future climate change in northern latitudes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {772}, number = {}, pages = {145474}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145474}, pmid = {33770871}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The non-stationary response of crop growth to changes in hydro-climatic variables makes yield projection uncertain and the design and implementation of adaptation strategies debatable. This study simulated the time-varying behavior of the underlying cause-and-effect mechanisms affecting spring wheat yield (SWY) under various climate change and nitrogen (N) application scenarios in the Red Deer River basin in agricultural lands of the western Canadian Prairies. A calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool and Analysis of Variance decomposition methods were utilized to assess the contribution of crop growth parameters, Global Climate Models, Representative Concentration Pathways, and downscaling techniques to the total SWY variance for the 2040-2064 period. The results showed that the cause-and-effect mechanisms, driving crop yield, shifted from water stress (W-stress) dominated (27 days of W-stress days) during the historical period to nitrogen stress (N-stress) dominated (27 to 35 N-stress days) in the future period. It was shown that while higher precipitation, warmer weather, and early snowmelts, along with elevated CO2 may favor SWY in cold regions in the future (up to 50% more yields in some sub-basins), the yield potentials may be limited by N-stress (only up to 0.7% yield increase in some sub-basins). The N-stress might be partially related to the N deficiency in the soil, which can be compensated by N fertilizer application. However, inadequate N uptake due to limited evapotranspiration under elevated atmospheric CO2 might pose restrictions to SWY potentials even in the least N deficient regions. This study uncovers important information on the understanding of spatiotemporal variability of hydrogeochemical processes driving crop yields and the non-stationary response of yields to changing climate. The results also underscore spatiotemporal variability of N-stress due to N deficiency in the soil or N uptake by crops, both of which may restrain SWY by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the future.}, }
@article {pmid33768183, year = {2021}, author = {Mihiretu, A and Okoyo, EN and Lemma, T}, title = {Causes, indicators and impacts of climate change: understanding the public discourse in Goat based agro-pastoral livelihood zone, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {e06529}, pmid = {33768183}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study assessed the perceived causes, indicators and impacts of climate change by disaggregating farmers in to adaptor and non-adaptor groups in Goat based agro-pastoral livelihood zone of Ethiopia. The collected quantitative and qualitative data were analysed in descriptive statistics, linear regression, anomaly index, Likert rating scale and conceptual narrations. The findings demonstrated that an increasing temperature and a decreasing rainfall trends were perceived by farmers across the study decades. Higher deforestation rate, rash natural resource exploitation, poor soil and water management rehearses and alarming population growth in descending order were identified as climate change causes. Livestock and crop yield decline, livestock/human diseases epidemics and death, as well as recurrent conflicts due to grazing land were its associated impacts. The status and nature of climate change causes, indicators and impacts were however significantly diverse within similar awareness groups. To mitigate its adverse impacts, the farmers were thus applied livestock, crop and non-agriculture related adaptation strategies. Shortage of finance and eligible household labor combined with the absence of climate related information, training and extension services were hindered farmers to take any measure to the climate change. Therefore, to encourage the farmers' responsiveness, the finding underlines the importance of supplying applicable as well as legitimate natural resource exploitation system, followed by access to climate related information, awareness rising trainings, credit and input delivery services at local and community level.}, }
@article {pmid33767753, year = {2021}, author = {Razgour, O and Kasso, M and Santos, H and Juste, J}, title = {Up in the air: Threats to Afromontane biodiversity from climate change and habitat loss revealed by genetic monitoring of the Ethiopian Highlands bat.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {794-806}, pmid = {33767753}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {While climate change is recognized as a major future threat to biodiversity, most species are currently threatened by extensive human-induced habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation. Tropical high-altitude alpine and montane forest ecosystems and their biodiversity are particularly sensitive to temperature increases under climate change, but they are also subject to accelerated pressures from land conversion and degradation due to a growing human population. We studied the combined effects of anthropogenic land-use change, past and future climate changes and mountain range isolation on the endemic Ethiopian Highlands long-eared bat, Plecotus balensis, an understudied bat that is restricted to the remnant natural high-altitude Afroalpine and Afromontane habitats. We integrated ecological niche modelling, landscape genetics and model-based inference to assess the genetic, geographic and demographic impacts of past and recent environmental changes. We show that mountain range isolation and historic climates shaped population structure and patterns of genetic variation, but recent anthropogenic land-use change and habitat degradation are associated with a severe population decline and loss of genetic diversity. Models predict that the suitable niche of this bat has been progressively shrinking since the last glaciation period. This study highlights threats to Afroalpine and Afromontane biodiversity, squeezed to higher altitudes under climate change while losing genetic diversity and suffering population declines due to anthropogenic land-use change. We conclude that the conservation of tropical montane biodiversity requires a holistic approach, using genetic, ecological and geographic information to understand the effects of environmental changes across temporal scales and simultaneously addressing the impacts of multiple threats.}, }
@article {pmid33766570, year = {2021}, author = {Lubinda, J and Haque, U and Bi, Y and Shad, MY and Keellings, D and Hamainza, B and Moore, AJ}, title = {Climate change and the dynamics of age-related malaria incidence in Southern Africa.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {197}, number = {}, pages = {111017}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.111017}, pmid = {33766570}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Africa, Southern ; Aged ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Incidence ; *Insecticides ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; Mosquito Control ; Zambia ; }, abstract = {In the last decade, many malaria-endemic countries, like Zambia, have achieved significant reductions in malaria incidence among children <5 years old but face ongoing challenges in achieving similar progress against malaria in older age groups. In parts of Zambia, changing climatic and environmental factors are among those suspectedly behind high malaria incidence. Changes and variations in these factors potentially interfere with intervention program effectiveness and alter the distribution and incidence patterns of malaria differentially between young children and the rest of the population. We used parametric and non-parametric statistics to model the effects of climatic and socio-demographic variables on age-specific malaria incidence vis-à-vis control interventions. Linear regressions, mixed models, and Mann-Kendall tests were implemented to explore trends, changes in trends, and regress malaria incidence against environmental and intervention variables. Our study shows that while climate parameters affect the whole population, their impacts are felt most by people aged ≥5 years. Climate variables influenced malaria substantially more than mosquito nets and indoor residual spraying interventions. We establish that climate parameters negatively impact malaria control efforts by exacerbating the transmission conditions via more conducive temperature and rainfall environments, which are augmented by cultural and socioeconomic exposure mechanisms. We argue that an intensified communications and education intervention strategy for behavioural change specifically targeted at ≥5 aged population where incidence rates are increasing, is urgently required and call for further malaria stratification among the ≥5 age groups in the routine collection, analysis and reporting of malaria mortality and incidence data.}, }
@article {pmid33765468, year = {2021}, author = {Rodrigues, M and Rosa, A and Cravo, A and Jacob, J and Fortunato, AB}, title = {Effects of climate change and anthropogenic pressures in the water quality of a coastal lagoon (Ria Formosa, Portugal).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {780}, number = {}, pages = {146311}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146311}, pmid = {33765468}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding how climatic and anthropogenic drivers will influence coastal lagoons is fundamental to guarantee their preservation and sustainability. The Ria Formosa (coastal lagoon, South coast of Portugal) is a very important ecosystem that supports diverse economic activities in the region. The 3D coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model SCHISM was validated and used to assess the influence of climate change and anthropogenic pressures on the water quality of the Ria Formosa. Five scenarios were simulated: reference scenario (S0), mean sea level rise (SLR) of 0.5 m (S1), increase of the air temperature of 1.68 °C (S2), increase of the outflow from the wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) by 50% (S3) and a combined scenario (S4). Results suggest that SLR of 0.5 m promotes an increase of 0.5-3 in the salinity near the area of influence of the WWTP. SLR decreases the inorganic nutrient concentrations in these areas by about 40-60%, due to an increase of the dilution. In contrast, the increase of the outflow from the WWTP by 50% increases the nutrients concentrations by about 20-40%. The increase of the air temperature alone by 1.68 °C increases the water temperature by 0-1 °C. The combined scenario suggests antagonist effects in the nutrient concentrations. Overall, the trophic index (TRIX) of the lagoon calculated for the scenarios exhibits only minor differences relative to the reference scenario, except in some areas near the WWTP discharges. In these areas, TRIX tends to increase with the increase of the outflow from the WWTP in scenario S3. These results provide further insight into the response of coastal lagoons, and the Ria Formosa in particular, to future changes and contribute to support their management.}, }
@article {pmid33763834, year = {2021}, author = {Jiang, H and Yu, Y and Chen, MM and Huang, W}, title = {The climate change vulnerability of China: spatial evolution and driving factors.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {29}, pages = {39757-39768}, pmid = {33763834}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Spatial Analysis ; }, abstract = {To cope with climate change, it is of great importance to describe the temporal and spatial evolution of climate change vulnerability and its driving factors. Therefore, this paper establishes a comprehensive index of vulnerability to climate change based on the vulnerability scoring diagram (VSD) framework. Moran's I index is used to study the spatial evolution characteristics of vulnerability, and spatial regression analysis is used to explore the factors influencing the spatial distribution of vulnerability. The results show that (1) the climate change vulnerability of China has decreased over time, and the sensitivity state is relatively stable; however, the annual change in exposure and adaptive capacity is significant. (2) The western region of China is more vulnerable than the eastern region, and the most vulnerable provinces are Guizhou and Gansu. (3) The regional vulnerability is generally in a significant spatial agglomeration state. (4) Finally, the driving factors of the spatial distribution of climate change vulnerability include forest coverage, the urban-rural income gap and information technology. These recommendations provide detailed discussions and scientific information for mitigating global warming and formulating long-term emission reduction targets, thereby optimizing resource allocation and providing spatial governance directions for the formulation of adaptation policies.}, }
@article {pmid33763833, year = {2021}, author = {Bandh, SA and Shafi, S and Peerzada, M and Rehman, T and Bashir, S and Wani, SA and Dar, R}, title = {Multidimensional analysis of global climate change: a review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {20}, pages = {24872-24888}, pmid = {33763833}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fossil Fuels ; Humans ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Even though climate change involves much more than warming, it is the name given to a set of physical phenomena. It is a long-term change in weather patterns that characterises different regions of the world. The warming effect in the earth's atmosphere has dramatically increased through the influence of some heat-taping gases emitted by various human activities, especially fossil fuel burning. The more the input of such gases, the more will be the warming effect in the coming times. Global climate change is already visible in various parts of the larger ecosystems like forests, fisheries, biodiversity, and agriculture; however, it is now also influencing the supply of freshwater, human health, and well-being. This paper reviews climate change drivers, its global scenario, major global events, and assessing climate change impacts. The most daunting problem of economic and ecological risks, along with the threats to humanity, is also discussed. The paper further reviews the species' vulnerability to climate change and the heat waves and human migration vis-à-vis climate change. Climate change politics and coverage of climate change episodes in mass media is the special focus of this review that concludes with a few mitigation measures.}, }
@article {pmid33762871, year = {2021}, author = {Uga, Y}, title = {Challenges to design-oriented breeding of root system architecture adapted to climate change.}, journal = {Breeding science}, volume = {71}, number = {1}, pages = {3-12}, pmid = {33762871}, issn = {1344-7610}, abstract = {Roots are essential organs for capturing water and nutrients from the soil. In particular, root system architecture (RSA) determines the extent of the region of the soil where water and nutrients can be gathered. As global climate change accelerates, it will be important to improve belowground plant parts, as well as aboveground ones, because roots are front-line organs in the response to abiotic stresses such as drought, flooding, and salinity stress. However, using conventional breeding based on phenotypic selection, it is difficult to select breeding lines possessing promising RSAs to adapted to abiotic stress because roots remain hidden underground. Therefore, new breeding strategies that do not require phenotypic selection are necessary. Recent advances in molecular biology and biotechnology can be applied to the design-oriented breeding of RSA without phenotypic selection. Here I summarize recent progress in RSA ideotypes as "design" and RSA-related gene resources as "materials" that will be needed in leveraging these technologies for the RSA breeding. I also highlight the future challenges to design-oriented breeding of RSA and explore solutions to these challenges.}, }
@article {pmid33762769, year = {2021}, author = {Degroot, D and Anchukaitis, K and Bauch, M and Burnham, J and Carnegy, F and Cui, J and de Luna, K and Guzowski, P and Hambrecht, G and Huhtamaa, H and Izdebski, A and Kleemann, K and Moesswilde, E and Neupane, N and Newfield, T and Pei, Q and Xoplaki, E and Zappia, N}, title = {Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {591}, number = {7851}, pages = {539-550}, pmid = {33762769}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Civilization/history ; Climate Change/economics/history/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Droughts ; Energy-Generating Resources ; History, 15th Century ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; History, Ancient ; History, Medieval ; Human Migration ; Humans ; Politics ; Rain ; *Research/trends ; *Social Change/history ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {A large scholarship currently holds that before the onset of anthropogenic global warming, natural climatic changes long provoked subsistence crises and, occasionally, civilizational collapses among human societies. This scholarship, which we term the 'history of climate and society' (HCS), is pursued by researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, historians, linguists and palaeoclimatologists. We argue that, despite the wide interest in HCS, the field suffers from numerous biases, and often does not account for the local effects and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of past climate changes or the challenges of interpreting historical sources. Here we propose an interdisciplinary framework for uncovering climate-society interactions that emphasizes the mechanics by which climate change has influenced human history, and the uncertainties inherent in discerning that influence across different spatiotemporal scales. Although we acknowledge that climate change has sometimes had destructive effects on past societies, the application of our framework to numerous case studies uncovers five pathways by which populations survived-and often thrived-in the face of climatic pressures.}, }
@article {pmid33760848, year = {2021}, author = {Bryson, JM and Patterson, K and Berrang-Ford, L and Lwasa, S and Namanya, DB and Twesigomwe, S and Kesande, C and Ford, JD and ,  and Harper, SL}, title = {Seasonality, climate change, and food security during pregnancy among indigenous and non-indigenous women in rural Uganda: Implications for maternal-infant health.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {e0247198}, pmid = {33760848}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Female ; Focus Groups ; Food Security/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Indigenous Peoples/psychology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Infant ; Infant Health ; Malnutrition ; Maternal Health ; Mothers ; Pregnancy/*physiology/psychology ; Rural Population ; Seasons ; Uganda/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to decrease food security globally. Many Indigenous communities have heightened sensitivity to climate change and food insecurity for multifactorial reasons including close relationships with the local environment and socioeconomic inequities which increase exposures and challenge adaptation to climate change. Pregnant women have additional sensitivity to food insecurity, as antenatal undernutrition is linked with poor maternal-infant health. This study examined pathways through which climate change influenced food security during pregnancy among Indigenous and non-Indigenous women in rural Uganda. Specific objectives were to characterize: 1) sensitivities to climate-associated declines in food security for pregnant Indigenous women; 2) women's perceptions of climate impacts on food security during pregnancy; and 3) changes in food security and maternal-infant health over time, as observed by women.<br><br>METHODS: Using a community-based research approach, we conducted eight focus group discussions-four in Indigenous Batwa communities and four in non-Indigenous communities-in Kanungu District, Uganda, on the subject of climate and food security during pregnancy. Thirty-six women with &#x2265;1 pregnancy participated. Data were analysed using a constant comparative method and thematic analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Women indicated that food insecurity was common during pregnancy and had a bidirectional relationship with antenatal health issues. Food security was thought to be decreasing due to weather changes including extended droughts and unpredictable seasons harming agriculture. Women linked food insecurity with declines in maternal-infant health over time, despite improved antenatal healthcare. While all communities described food security struggles, the challenges Indigenous women identified and described were more severe.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Programs promoting women's adaptive capacity to climate change are required to improve food security for pregnant women and maternal-infant health. These interventions are particularly needed in Indigenous communities, which often face underlying health inequities. However, resiliency among mothers was strong and, with supports, they can reduce food security challenges in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid33759737, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, S and Braithwaite, I and Bhavsar, V and Das-Munshi, J}, title = {Unequal effects of climate change and pre-existing inequalities on the mental health of global populations.}, journal = {BJPsych bulletin}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {230-234}, pmid = {33759737}, issn = {2056-4694}, abstract = {Climate change is already having unequal effects on the mental health of individuals and communities and will increasingly compound pre-existing mental health inequalities globally. Psychiatrists have a vital part to play in improving both awareness and scientific understanding of structural mechanisms that perpetuate these inequalities, and in responding to global calls for action to promote climate justice and resilience, which are central foundations for good mental and physical health.}, }
@article {pmid33759302, year = {2021}, author = {Storkey, J and Mead, A and Addy, J and MacDonald, AJ}, title = {Agricultural intensification and climate change have increased the threat from weeds.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {11}, pages = {2416-2425}, pmid = {33759302}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {727321//European Union H2020/ ; BBS/E/C/000I0320/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BBS/E/C/000J0300/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Herbicide Resistance ; Plant Weeds ; *Weed Control ; }, abstract = {Weeds represent a significant threat to crop yields and global food security. We analysed data on weed competition from the world's longest running agricultural experiment to ask whether potential yield losses from weeds have increased in response to management and environmental change since the advent of the Green Revolution in the 1960s. On plots where inorganic nitrogen fertiliser has been applied, potential yield losses from weeds have consistently increased since 1969. This was explained by a warming climate, measured as air temperature averaged over the growing season for the weeds, and a shift towards shorter crop cultivars. Weeds also reduced yield proportionally more on plots with higher rates of nitrogen which had higher yields when weeds were controlled; the relative benefit of herbicides was, therefore, proportional to potential crop yield. Reducing yield losses from weed competition is increasingly challenging because of the evolution of herbicide resistance. Our results demonstrate that weeds now represent a greater inherent threat to crop production than before the advent of herbicides and integrated, sustainable solutions to weed management are urgently needed to protect the high yield potential of modern crop genotypes.}, }
@article {pmid33754543, year = {2021}, author = {Lin, SZ and Ge, QS and Wang, HJ}, title = {Spatiotemporal variations in leaf-out phenology of typical European tree species and their responses to climate change.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {3}, pages = {788-798}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202103.019}, pmid = {33754543}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Plant Leaves ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Over the past decades, global warming significantly affected the spring phenology of plants. Many studies have reported the temporal and spatial patterns of spring phenological changes in China, but relatively less is known for that in Europe, which is also located in the temperate area of the Northern Hemisphere. To facilitate the regional comparison of phenological change and understand its response to climate change, we used the data of first leaf date (FLD) in Europe (1980-2014) and the corresponding meteorological data to examine the spatiotemporal variations in leaf-out phenology of four typical tree species (Aesculus hippocastanum, Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica, and Quercus robur), and to identify the major climatic factors driving such variations. The results showed that the FLD of the four species in the study area advanced by 3.3-7.5 d·10 a[-1] during 1980-2014. The FLD was delayed at a rate of 2.03-3.19 d per degree of latitude from south to north, of 0.19-0.80 d per degree of longitude from west to East (except for Fagus sylvatica), of 2.25-3.44 d·100 m[-1] from low to high elevation. The advances in the FLD were mainly attributed to the increases of temperature in spring and the increases of precipitation in spring and winter. The rise of temperature in autumn and winter would delay FLD.}, }
@article {pmid33752667, year = {2021}, author = {Yu, J and Castellani, K and Forysinski, K and Gustafson, P and Lu, J and Peterson, E and Tran, M and Yao, A and Zhao, J and Brauer, M}, title = {Geospatial indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to assess neighbourhood variation in vulnerability to climate change-related health hazards.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {31}, pmid = {33752667}, issn = {1476-069X}, support = {209376/Z/17/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; British Columbia ; *Climate Change ; Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Floods ; Hospitalization/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Ozone/*adverse effects ; Residence Characteristics ; Risk Factors ; *Smoke ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although the frequency and magnitude of climate change-related health hazards (CCRHHs) are likely to increase, the population vulnerabilities and corresponding health impacts are dependent on a community's exposures, pre-existing sensitivities, and adaptive capacities in response to a hazard's impact. To evaluate spatial variability in relative vulnerability, we: 1) identified climate change-related risk factors at the dissemination area level; 2) created actionable health vulnerability index scores to map community risks to extreme heat, flooding, wildfire smoke, and ground-level ozone; and 3) spatially evaluated vulnerability patterns and priority areas of action to address inequity.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify the determinants of health hazards among populations impacted by CCRHHs. Identified determinants were then grouped into categories of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity and aligned with available data. Data were aggregated to 4188 Census dissemination areas within two health authorities in British Columbia, Canada. A two-step principal component analysis (PCA) was then used to select and weight variables for each relative vulnerability score. In addition to an overall vulnerability score, exposure, adaptive capacity, and sensitivity sub-scores were computed for each hazard. Scores were then categorised into quintiles and mapped.<br><br>RESULTS: Two hundred eighty-one epidemiological papers met the study criteria and were used to identify 36 determinant indicators that were operationalized across all hazards. For each hazard, 3 to 5 principal components explaining 72 to 94% of the total variance were retained. Sensitivity was weighted much higher for extreme heat, wildfire smoke and ground-level ozone, and adaptive capacity was highly weighted for flooding vulnerability. There was overall varied contribution of adaptive capacity (16-49%) across all hazards. Distinct spatial patterns were observed - for example, although patterns varied by hazard, vulnerability was generally higher in more deprived and more outlying neighbourhoods of the study region.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The creation of hazard and category-specific vulnerability indices (exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity sub-scores) supports evidence-based approaches to prioritize public health responses to climate-related hazards and to reduce inequity by assessing relative differences in vulnerability along with absolute impacts. Future studies can build upon this methodology to further understand the spatial variation in vulnerability and to identify and prioritise actionable areas for adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid33751382, year = {2021}, author = {Go, YH and Lau, LS and Ng, CF and Yiew, TH}, title = {Obesity Kuznets curve hypothesis and global warming: a robust estimation under cross-section dependence.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {45}, pages = {63968-63976}, pmid = {33751382}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; Economic Development ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Obesity ; *Substance-Related Disorders ; }, abstract = {Obesity is a worldwide concern as it leads to adverse effects on human health. This study uses a panel of 165 countries and annual data from 2000 to 2014 to examine the obesity Kuznets curve (OKC) hypothesis. By using tests and estimators that are robust to cross-section dependence (CSD), our results support the OKC hypothesis. This indicates that obesity increases at the initial stage of economic development and eventually would decrease once the threshold is reached. In addition, we find that the role of global warming on obesity is not significant. Food production is found to be a contributing factor to obesity. Besides, one-way and two-way causalities are identified between the variables. This study provides important insights particularly about the relationship between (i) economic growth and obesity and (ii) environmental degradation and obesity. Implication of the results and policy recommendations are also provided to policymakers and health personnel in finding solutions to the obesity epidemic around the world.}, }
@article {pmid33750192, year = {2021}, author = {Pascual, F}, title = {CO2 and Lung Function: An in Vivo Exploration of Potential Climate Change Implications.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {129}, number = {3}, pages = {34002}, pmid = {33750192}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Lung ; }, }
@article {pmid33750013, year = {2021}, author = {Duchenne, F and Martin, G and Porcher, E}, title = {European plants lagging behind climate change pay a climatic debt in the North, but are favoured in the South.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {1178-1186}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13730}, pmid = {33750013}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {SJ 3-17//Minist&#xe8;re de l'&#xc9;cologie, du D&#xe9;veloppement Durable et de l'&#xc9;nergie/ ; Yapludsaison//Universit&#xe9; Pierre et Marie Curie/ ; 44779VJ//PHC ALLIANCE/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plants ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {For many species, climate change leads to range shifts that are detectable, but often insufficient to track historical climatic conditions. These lags of species range shifts behind climatic conditions are often coined "climatic debts", but the demographic costs entailed by the word "debt" have not been demonstrated. Here, we used opportunistic distribution data for c. 4000 European plant species to estimate the temporal shifts in climatic conditions experienced by these species and their occupancy trends, over the last 65 years. The resulting negative relationship observed between these two variables provides the first piece of evidence that European plants are already paying a climatic debt in Alpine, Atlantic and Boreal regions. In contrast, plants appear to benefit from a surprising "climatic bonus" in the Mediterranean. We also find that among multiple pressures faced by plants, climate change is now on par with other known drivers of occupancy trends, including eutrophication and urbanisation.}, }
@article {pmid33749964, year = {2021}, author = {Crossley, MS and Smith, OM and Berry, LL and Phillips-Cosio, R and Glassberg, J and Holman, KM and Holmquest, JG and Meier, AR and Varriano, SA and McClung, MR and Moran, MD and Snyder, WE}, title = {Recent climate change is creating hotspots of butterfly increase and decline across North America.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {12}, pages = {2702-2714}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15582}, pmid = {33749964}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2015-51300-24155//USDA-NIFA-OREI/ ; 2019-51106-30188//USDA-NIFA-ORG/ ; 1742301//NSF-S-STEM/ ; 2015-51181-24292//USDA-NIFA-SCRI/ ; 2019-67012-29711//USDA-NIFA/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Butterflies ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; North America ; }, abstract = {Some insect populations are experiencing dramatic declines, endangering the crucial ecosystem services they provide. Yet, other populations appear robust, highlighting the need to better define patterns and underlying drivers of recent change in insect numbers. We examined abundance and biodiversity trends for North American butterflies using a unique citizen-science dataset that has recorded observations of over 8 million butterflies across 456 species, 503 sites, nine ecoregions, and 26 years. Butterflies are a biodiverse group of pollinators, herbivores, and prey, making them useful bellwethers of environmental change. We found great heterogeneity in butterfly species' abundance trends, aggregating near zero, but with a tendency toward decline. There was strong spatial clustering, however, into regions of increase, decrease, or relative stasis. Recent precipitation and temperature appeared to largely drive these patterns, with butterflies generally declining at increasingly dry and hot sites but increasing at relatively wet or cool sites. In contrast, landscape and butterfly trait predictors had little influence, though abundance trends were slightly more positive around urban areas. Consistent with varying responses by different species, no overall directional change in butterfly species richness or evenness was detected. Overall, a mosaic of butterfly decay and rebound hotspots appeared to largely reflect geographic variability in climate drivers. Ongoing controversy about insect declines might dissipate with a shift in focus to the causes of heterogeneous responses among taxa and sites, with climate change emerging as a key suspect when pollinator communities are broadly impacted.}, }
@article {pmid33748359, year = {2021}, author = {Noël, T and Loukos, H and Defrance, D and Vrac, M and Levavasseur, G}, title = {A high-resolution downscaled CMIP5 projections dataset of essential surface climate variables over the globe coherent with the ERA5 reanalysis for climate change impact assessments.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {106900}, pmid = {33748359}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {A high-resolution climate projections dataset is obtained by statistically downscaling climate projections from the CMIP5 experiment using the ERA5 reanalysis from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. This global dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.25°x 0.25°, comprises 21 climate models and includes 5 surface daily variables at monthly resolution: air temperature (mean, minimum, and maximum), precipitation, and mean near-surface wind speed. Two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are available: one with mitigation policy (RCP4.5) and one without mitigation (RCP8.5). The downscaling method is a Quantile Mapping method (QM) called the Cumulative Distribution Function transform (CDF-t) method that was first used for wind values and is now referenced in dozens of peer-reviewed publications. The data processing includes quality control of metadata according to the climate modeling community standards and value checking for outlier detection.}, }
@article {pmid33745784, year = {2021}, author = {Zandalinas, SI and Fritschi, FB and Mittler, R}, title = {Global Warming, Climate Change, and Environmental Pollution: Recipe for a Multifactorial Stress Combination Disaster.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, pages = {588-599}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2021.02.011}, pmid = {33745784}, issn = {1878-4372}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Environmental Pollution ; Global Warming ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Global warming, climate change, and environmental pollution present plants with unique combinations of different abiotic and biotic stresses. Although much is known about how plants acclimate to each of these individual stresses, little is known about how they respond to a combination of many of these stress factors occurring together, namely a multifactorial stress combination. Recent studies revealed that increasing the number of different co-occurring multifactorial stress factors causes a severe decline in plant growth and survival, as well as in the microbiome biodiversity that plants depend upon. This effect should serve as a dire warning to our society and prompt us to decisively act to reduce pollutants, fight global warming, and augment the tolerance of crops to multifactorial stress combinations.}, }
@article {pmid33745056, year = {2021}, author = {Shaffril, HAM and Samah, AA and Samsuddin, SF}, title = {Guidelines for developing a systematic literature review for studies related to climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {18}, pages = {22265-22277}, pmid = {33745056}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Systematic Reviews as Topic ; }, abstract = {This study proposes a set of GuFSyADD guidelines on steps for developing suggestions that enhance of its rigor in systematic literature review (SLR) for studies related to climate change adaptation. The prescribed guidelines are based on the following six steps, (1) guided by review of protocol/publication standard/established guidelines/related published articles, (2) formulation of review questions, (3) systematic searching strategies, (4) appraisal of quality, (5) data extraction and analysis, and (6) data demonstration. Essentially, this set of proposed guidelines enables researchers to develop an SLR pertaining to climate change adaptation in an organised, transparent, and replicable manner.}, }
@article {pmid33744784, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, AT and Li, J and Wang, Q and Fang, B and Yuan, GL and Duan, XC}, title = {Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sedimentary cores of Tibetan Plateau: Influence of global warming on cold trapping.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {278}, number = {}, pages = {116916}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2021.116916}, pmid = {33744784}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Environmental Monitoring ; Geologic Sediments ; Global Warming ; Lakes ; *Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/analysis ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Cold condensation is an important pathway for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) depositing at remote alpine lakes after long-range atmospheric transportation. However, in the context of global warming, the obvious temperature rise in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) might have an impact on the air deposition of PAHs by controlling the extent of cold condensation. To investigate the influence of rising temperatures on the atmospheric deposition of PAHs, two dated sedimentary cores from Pumoyum Co Lake (PC) and Selin Co Lake (SC) were collected, respectively and concentrations of 16 individual PAHs were measured. In both PC and SC, the total concentration of 16 PAHs presented relatively lower levels in four historical periods of "hot anomaly" including 1973-1975, 1988-1989, 1998-1999, and 2006-2007. This indicated that the hot temperatures might restrict the atmospheric deposition of PAHs. Besides, the results of the principal component analysis did discriminate those "hot anomalies". As the temperature kept increasing in TP, for low molecular weight PAHs and high molecular weight PAHs, the influence of rising temperatures on the cold condensation was different. Therefore, it was identified that the effect of global warming on the environmental fate of POPs cannot be neglected, especially in alpine regions like TP.}, }
@article {pmid33744496, year = {2021}, author = {Zhong, C and Liu, Y and Xu, X and Yang, B and Aamer, M and Zhang, P and Huang, G}, title = {Paddy-upland rotation with Chinese milk vetch incorporation reduced the global warming potential and greenhouse gas emissions intensity of double rice cropping system.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {276}, number = {}, pages = {116696}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2021.116696}, pmid = {33744496}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Astragalus Plant ; China ; Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Oryza ; Rotation ; Soil ; }, abstract = {It is a common practice to maintain soil fertility based on the paddy-upland rotation with green manure in the subtropical region of China. However, rare studies are known about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the paddy-upland rotation with green manure incorporation. Therefore, we conducted a field experiment of two years to compared with the effect of two kinds of green manure (CV: Chinese milk vetch and OR: Oilseed rape), and two kinds of cropping system (DR: double rice system and PR: paddy-upland rotation) on greenhouse gases emissions. We have found that the annual accumulation of CH4 of Chinese milk vetch-rice-sweet potato || soybean was significantly reduced by 32.95%∼63.22% compared with other treatments, mainly because Chinese milk vetch reduced the abundance of methanogens by reducing soil C/N ratio. Meanwhile increasing soil permeability resulting from paddy-upland rotation also reduced soil CH4 emission. However, The annual accumulation of N2O of Chinese milk vetch-rice-sweet potato || soybean was increased by 17.39%∼870.11% compared with other treatments, mainly attributed to paddy-upland rotation decreased soil pH and nosZ abundance and increased nirK and nirS, thus enhancing N2O emission, meanwhile the Chinese milk vetch incorporation and its interaction with the paddy-upland rotation has greatly enhanced the contents of NO3[-]-N and abundance of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA). The area-scaled global warming potential (GWP) and the biomass-scaled greenhouse gas emissions intensity (GHGI) of Chinese milk vetch-rice-sweet potato || soybean was reduced by 19.01%∼50.69% and 5.38%∼35.77% respectively. Thereby, the Chinese milk vetch-rice-sweet potato || soybean cropping system was suitable for agricultural sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid33742490, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, Y and Yao, Z and Zhan, Y and Zheng, X and Zhou, M and Yan, G and Wang, L and Werner, C and Butterbach-Bahl, K}, title = {Potential benefits of liming to acid soils on climate change mitigation and food security.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {12}, pages = {2807-2821}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15607}, pmid = {33742490}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {41977282//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41675144//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41807327//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; ZDBS-LY-DQCOO7//Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; Calcium Compounds ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Food Security ; Humans ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Oxides ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Globally, about 50% of all arable soils are classified as acidic. As crop and plant growth are significantly hampered under acidic soil conditions, many farmers, but increasingly as well forest managers, apply lime to raise the soil pH. Besides its direct effect on soil pH, liming also affects soil C and nutrient cycles and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. In this meta-analysis, we reviewed 1570 observations reported in 121 field-based studies worldwide, to assess liming effects on soil GHG fluxes and plant productivity. We found that liming significantly increases crop yield by 36.3%. Also, soil organic C (SOC) stocks were found to increase by 4.51% annually, though soil respiration is stimulated too (7.57%). Moreover, liming was found to reduce soil N2 O emission by 21.3%, yield-scaled N2 O emission by 21.5%, and CH4 emission and yield-scaled CH4 emission from rice paddies by 19.0% and 12.4%, respectively. Assuming that all acid agricultural soils are limed periodically, liming results in a total GHG balance benefit of 633-749 Tg CO2 -eq year[-1] due to reductions in soil N2 O emissions (0.60-0.67 Tg N2 O-N year[-1]) and paddy soil CH4 emissions (1.75-2.21 Tg CH4 year[-1]) and increases in SOC stocks (65.7-110 Tg C year[-1]). However, this comes at the cost of an additional CO2 release (c. 624-656 Tg CO2 year[-1]) deriving from lime mining, transport and application, and lime dissolution, so that the overall GHG balance is likely neutral. Nevertheless, liming of acid agricultural soils will increase yields by at least 6.64 × 10[8] Mg year[-1] , covering the food supply of 876 million people. Overall, our study shows for the first time that a general strategy of liming of acid agricultural soils is likely to result in an increasing sustainability of global agricultural production, indicating the potential benefit of liming acid soils for climate change mitigation and food security.}, }
@article {pmid33741981, year = {2021}, author = {Heinrich, VHA and Dalagnol, R and Cassol, HLG and Rosan, TM and de Almeida, CT and Silva Junior, CHL and Campanharo, WA and House, JI and Sitch, S and Hales, TC and Adami, M and Anderson, LO and Aragão, LEOC}, title = {Large carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1785}, pmid = {33741981}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Biomass ; Brazil ; Carbon/*metabolism ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Fires ; Forestry ; *Forests ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; Satellite Imagery/methods ; Trees/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Tropical secondary forests sequester carbon up to 20 times faster than old-growth forests. This rate does not capture spatial regrowth patterns due to environmental and disturbance drivers. Here we quantify the influence of such drivers on the rate and spatial patterns of regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon using satellite data. Carbon sequestration rates of young secondary forests (<20 years) in the west are ~60% higher (3.0 ± 1.0 Mg C ha[-1] yr[-1]) compared to those in the east (1.3 ± 0.3 Mg C ha[-1] yr[-1]). Disturbances reduce regrowth rates by 8-55%. The 2017 secondary forest carbon stock, of 294 Tg C, could be 8% higher by avoiding fires and repeated deforestation. Maintaining the 2017 secondary forest area has the potential to accumulate ~19.0 Tg C yr[-1] until 2030, contributing ~5.5% to Brazil's 2030 net emissions reduction target. Implementing legal mechanisms to protect and expand secondary forests whilst supporting old-growth conservation is, therefore, key to realising their potential as a nature-based climate solution.}, }
@article {pmid33740729, year = {2021}, author = {Stentoft, PA and Munk-Nielsen, T and Møller, JK and Madsen, H and Valverde-Pérez, B and Mikkelsen, PS and Vezzaro, L}, title = {Prioritize effluent quality, operational costs or global warming? - Using predictive control of wastewater aeration for flexible management of objectives in WRRFs.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {196}, number = {}, pages = {116960}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2021.116960}, pmid = {33740729}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Global Warming ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Waste Disposal, Fluid ; *Wastewater ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {This study presents a general model predictive control (MPC) algorithm for optimizing wastewater aeration in Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRF) under different management objectives. The flexibility of the MPC is demonstrated by controlling a WRRF under four management objectives, aiming at minimizing: (A) effluent concentrations, (B) electricity consumption, (C) total operations costs (sum electricity costs and discharge effluent tax) or (D) global warming potential (direct and indirect nitrous oxide emissions, and indirect from electricity production) . The MPC is tested with data from the alternating WRRF in Nørre Snede (Denmark) and from the Danish electricity grid. Results showed how the four control objectives resulted in important differences in aeration patterns and in the concentration dynamics over a day. Controls B and C showed similarities when looking at total costs, while similarities in global warming potential for controls A and D suggest that improving effluent quality also reduced greenhouse gasses emissions. The MPC flexibility in handling different objectives is shown by using a combined objective function, optimizing both cost and greenhouse emissions. This shows the trade-off between the two objectives, enabling the calculation of marginal costs and thus allowing WRRF operators to carefully evaluate prioritization of management objectives. The long-term MPC performance is evaluated over 51 days covering seasonal and inter-weekly variations. On a daily basis, control A was 9-30% cheaper on average compared to controls A, D and to the current rule-based control. Similarly, control D resulted on average in 35-43% lower greenhouse gasses daily emission compared to the other controls. Difference between control performance increased for days with greater inter-diurnal variations in electricity price or greenhouse emissions from electricity production, i.e. when MPC has greater possibilities for exploiting input variations. The flexibility of the proposed MPC can easily accommodate for additional control objectives, allowing WRRF operators to quickly adapt the plant operation to new management objectives and to face new performance requirements.}, }
@article {pmid33740448, year = {2021}, author = {Hoffmann, AA and Weeks, AR and Sgrò, CM}, title = {Opportunities and challenges in assessing climate change vulnerability through genomics.}, journal = {Cell}, volume = {184}, number = {6}, pages = {1420-1425}, doi = {10.1016/j.cell.2021.02.006}, pmid = {33740448}, issn = {1097-4172}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Gene-Environment Interaction ; *Genomics ; Humans ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, abstract = {By investigating how past selection has affected allele frequencies across space, genomic tools are providing new insights into adaptive evolutionary processes. Now researchers are considering how this genomic information can be used to predict the future vulnerability of species under climate change. Genomic vulnerability assessments show promise, but challenges remain.}, }
@article {pmid33738587, year = {2021}, author = {Chaturvedi, S and Dwivedi, S}, title = {Understanding the effect of climate change in the distribution and intensity of malaria transmission over India using a dynamical malaria model.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {65}, number = {7}, pages = {1161-1175}, pmid = {33738587}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; *Malaria/epidemiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Efforts have been made to quantify the spatio-temporal malaria transmission intensity over India using the dynamical malaria model, namely, Vector-borne Disease Community Model of International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste (VECTRI). The likely effect of climate change in the variability of malaria transmission intensity over different parts of India is also investigated. The Historical data and future projection scenarios of the rainfall and temperature derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model output are used for this purpose. The Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) and Vector are taken as quantifiers of malaria transmission intensity. It is shown that the maximum number of malaria cases over India occur during the Sept-Oct months, whereas the minimum during the Feb-Apr months. The malaria transmission intensity as well as length of transmission season over India is likely to increase in the future climate as a result of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid33738188, year = {2021}, author = {Godde, CM and Mason-D'Croz, D and Mayberry, DE and Thornton, PK and Herrero, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the livestock food supply chain; a review of the evidence.}, journal = {Global food security}, volume = {28}, number = {}, pages = {100488}, pmid = {33738188}, issn = {2211-9124}, abstract = {The potential impacts of climate change on current livestock systems worldwide are a major concern, and yet the topic is covered to a limited extent in global reports such as the ones produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this article, we review the risk of climate-related impacts along the land-based livestock food supply chain. Although a quantification of the net impacts of climate change on the livestock sector is beyond the reach of our current understanding, there is strong evidence that there will be impacts throughout the supply chain, from farm production to processing operations, storage, transport, retailing and human consumption. The risks of climate-related impacts are highly context-specific but expected to be higher in environments that are already hot and have limited socio-economic and institutional resources for adaptation. Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems to climatic changes over time. Consequently, adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures, including those with low probability but large consequences.}, }
@article {pmid33736413, year = {2021}, author = {Simmons, AT and Cowie, AL and Waters, CM}, title = {Pyrolysis of invasive woody vegetation for energy and biochar has climate change mitigation potential.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {770}, number = {}, pages = {145278}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145278}, pmid = {33736413}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Australia ; Charcoal ; *Climate Change ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Pyrolysis ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Woody plant encroachment in agricultural areas reduces agricultural production and is a recognised land degradation problem of global significance. Invasive native scrub (INS) is woody vegetation that invades southern Australian rangelands and is commonly cleared to return land to agricultural production. Clearing of INS emits carbon to the atmosphere, and the retention of INS by landholders for the purpose of avoiding carbon emissions has been incentivized in Australia as an emission reduction strategy. Retaining INS, however, means land remains relatively unproductive because INS negatively impacts livestock production. This desktop study examined whether clearing INS to return an area to production, and pyrolysing residues to produce biochar, has the potential to provide climate change mitigation (the "pyrolysis scenario"). The syngas produced via pyrolysis was assumed to be used to generate electricity that was fed into the electricity grid and avoided the production of electricity from existing sources. In addition, the biochar was assumed to be applied to soils used for wheat production, giving mitigation benefits from reduced N2O emissions from fertiliser use and reduction in the use of lime to ameliorate soil acidity. Relative to clearing INS and burning residues in-situ, the pyrolysis scenario resulted in a reduction in radiative forcing of 1.28 × 10[-4] W m[2] ha[-1] of INS managed, 25 years after clearing, and was greater than the reduction of 1.06 × 10[-4] W m[2] ha[-1] that occurred when INS was retained. The greatest contribution to the climate change mitigation provided by the pyrolysis scenario came from avoided emissions from grid electricity production, while avoided N2O and lime emissions made a relatively minor contribution towards mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid33736187, year = {2021}, author = {Teixeira, E and Kersebaum, KC and Ausseil, AG and Cichota, R and Guo, J and Johnstone, P and George, M and Liu, J and Malcolm, B and Khaembah, E and Meiyalaghan, S and Richards, K and Zyskowski, R and Michel, A and Sood, A and Tait, A and Ewert, F}, title = {Understanding spatial and temporal variability of N leaching reduction by winter cover crops under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {771}, number = {}, pages = {144770}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144770}, pmid = {33736187}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; New Zealand ; Nitrogen ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Winter cover crops are sown in between main spring crops (e.g. cash and forage crops) to provide a range of benefits, including the reduction of nitrogen (N) leaching losses to groundwater. However, the extent by which winter cover crops will remain effective under future climate change is unclear. We assess variability and uncertainty of climate change effects on the reduction of N leaching by winter oat cover crops. Field data were collected to quantify ranges of cover crop above-ground biomass (7 to 10 t DM/ha) and N uptake (70 to 180 kg N/ha) under contrasting initial soil conditions. The data were also used to evaluate the APSIM-NextGen model (R[2] from 62 to 96% and RMSEr from 7 to 50%), which was then applied to simulate cover crop and fallow conditions across four key agricultural locations in New Zealand, under baseline and future climate scenarios. Cover crops reduced N leaching risks for all location/scenario combinations but with large variability in space and time (e.g. 21 to 47% of fallow) depending on the climate change scenario. For instance, end-of-century estimates for northern (warmer) locations mostly showed non-significant effects of climate change on cover crop effectiveness and N leaching. In contrast for southern (colder) locations, there was a systematic increase in N leaching risks with climate change intensity despite a concomitant, but less than proportional, increase in cover crop effectiveness (up to ~5% of baseline) due to higher winter yields and N uptake. This implies that climate change may not only modify the geography of N leaching hotspots, but also the extent by which cover crops can locally reduce pollution risks, in some cases requiring complementary adaptive measures. The patchy- and threshold-nature of leaching events indicates that fine spatio-temporal resolutions are better suited to evaluate cover crop effectiveness under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33736174, year = {2021}, author = {Kourtis, IM and Tsihrintzis, VA}, title = {Adaptation of urban drainage networks to climate change: A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {771}, number = {}, pages = {145431}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145431}, pmid = {33736174}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The present work reviews the main challenges regarding adaptation of urban drainage networks to climate change by comparing 32 case studies from 29 articles, published between 2003 and 2020. The aim is to: (i) identify the state-of-the-art scientific approaches of adaptation of urban drainage networks to climate change; (ii) assess whether or not these approaches incorporated monetization of the adaptation practices and the associated costs/benefits; and (iii) define a novel approach (Blueprint) for the future development and assessment of urban drainage network adaptation to climate change and other drivers. First, the motivation is provided that makes urban drainage adaptation a globally relevant issue. Second, the main impacts of climate change on precipitation, flooding and urban drainage systems are discussed. Then, current practices are described. Finally, a blueprint for an integrated urban adaptation framework to climate change and other drivers is proposed. Our research indicated that future quantity and quality of urban runoff is not widely addressed in the scientific literature. The Storm Water Management Model is the most widely used software in modeling adaptation options. Solutions such as plans of maintenance and rehabilitation, public awareness, flood forecasting and warning, mobility measures and insurance measures are not widely reflected in the literature. Uncertainties of climate projections and bias correction methods are still significant, and uncertainties of socio-economic scenarios, hydrologic and hydrodynamic models, and adaptation options are not fully addressed. Finally, environmental cost and benefits associated with the ecosystem services provided by the adaptation options are not fully addressed.}, }
@article {pmid33735656, year = {2021}, author = {Leal Filho, W and Azeiteiro, UM and Balogun, AL and Setti, AFF and Mucova, SAR and Ayal, D and Totin, E and Lydia, AM and Kalaba, FK and Oguge, NO}, title = {The influence of ecosystems services depletion to climate change adaptation efforts in Africa.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {779}, number = {}, pages = {146414}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146414}, pmid = {33735656}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the major challenges societies round the world face at present. Apart from efforts to achieve a reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases so as to mitigate the problem, there is a perceived need for adaptation initiatives urgently. Ecosystems are known to play an important role in climate change adaptation processes, since some of the services they provide, may reduce the impacts of extreme events and disturbance, such as wildfires, floods, and droughts. This role is especially important in regions vulnerable to climate change such as the African continent, whose adaptation capacity is limited by many geographic and socio-economic constraints. In Africa, interventions aimed at enhancing ecosystem services may play a key role in supporting climate change adaptation efforts. In order to shed some light on this aspect, this paper reviews the role of ecosystems services and investigates how they are being influenced by climate change in Africa. It contains a set of case studies from a sample of African countries, which serve the purpose to demonstrate the damages incurred, and how such damages disrupt ecosystem services. Based on the data gathered, some measures which may assist in fostering the cause of ecosystems services are listed, so as to cater for a better protection of some of the endangered Africa ecosystems, and the services they provide.}, }
@article {pmid33735467, year = {2021}, author = {Tseng, ZJ}, title = {Polar bear diet in the face of Arctic climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {13}, pages = {3004-3005}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15599}, pmid = {33735467}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Diet ; Ice Cover ; *Ursidae ; }, }
@article {pmid33730556, year = {2021}, author = {Ani, CJ and Robson, B}, title = {Responses of marine ecosystems to climate change impacts and their treatment in biogeochemical ecosystem models.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {166}, number = {}, pages = {112223}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112223}, pmid = {33730556}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, abstract = {To predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and the effectiveness of intervention and mitigation strategies, we need reliable marine ecosystem response models such as biogeochemical models that reproduce climate change effects. We reviewed marine ecosystem parameters and processes that are modified by climate change and examined their representations in biogeochemical ecosystem models. The interactions among important aspects of marine ecosystem modelling are not often considered due to complexity: these include the use of multiple IPCC scenarios, ensemble modelling approach, independent calibration datasets, the consideration of changes in cloud cover, ocean currents, wind speed, sea-level rise, storm frequency, storm intensity, and the incorporation of species adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Including our recommendations in future marine modelling studies could help improve the accuracy and reliability of model predictions of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid33730192, year = {2021}, author = {Waheed, A and Bernward Fischer, T and Khan, MI}, title = {Climate Change Policy Coherence across Policies, Plans, and Strategies in Pakistan-Implications for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Plan.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {67}, number = {5}, pages = {793-810}, pmid = {33730192}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Pakistan ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate Change (CC) adaptation and mitigation policy coherence (PC) across sectors is essential to effectively address CC challenges and support synergies. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to CC. In this paper, the extent to which Pakistan's national and provincial water, agriculture, and energy sector policies, development plans and strategies are aligned in a CC policy coherent manner is established. In this context, a qualitative content document analysis with associated scoring is used to assess government documents. Furthermore, implications of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Initiative (CPEC; 2017-2030), the biggest infrastructure investment program ever in Pakistan, are discussed. An important result is that sectoral policies are found to have different degrees of PC. Better coherence is found at federal than at provincial levels. Furthermore, CC policies are found to be more coherently addressed in water and agriculture policies than in energy policies. It is suggested that to achieve higher levels of CC PC, federal and provincial governments should establish mechanisms of intergovernmental consultation for policy-making and cross-sectoral planning, especially in the energy sector. Our findings can help the Government of Pakistan to transform CPEC into a model green Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region. In this context, there are important implications with regards to e.g., reducing coal-based energy projects and environmentally damaging infrastructure activities in sensitive ecosystems. With this paper, the authors want to raise awareness of the key importance of CC PC, particular in context of the BRI. Many countries participating in the initiative have carbon reduction targets in place.}, }
@article {pmid33729215, year = {2021}, author = {Álvarez-Miño, L and Taboada-Montoya, R}, title = {[Effects of climate change on Public Health 2015-2020. A systematic review.].}, journal = {Revista espanola de salud publica}, volume = {95}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {33729215}, issn = {2173-9110}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Spain ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic climate change is a phenomenon that is becoming increasingly important in many areas such as economics and politics, but it also has great scientific relevance due to the important effects it has on people's health, the relationship between climate change and Health has caused an increase in the production of scientific knowledge about this topic and therefore the objective of this article was to provide an updated review of the open access scientific evidence, in the last five years, related to the effects of anthropogenic climate change in Public Health.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic review was conducted, in Spanish and English, in four non-subscription databases; using online thesaurus terms, the inclusion and exclusion criteria, an evaluation with the STROBE checklist were applied.<br><br>RESULTS: Finally, 18 publications were analyzed. These showed: the relationship between extreme events, such as heat and cold waves, with the increase in mortality from various causes, especially from heart attacks; the alteration of the rainy and drought periods as a determinant of various infectious diseases; air pollution from emissions derived from the use of fossil fuels with the reduction of 2.9 years in world life expectancy. In addition, other authors reported predictions from climate alterations in health risks; and perceptions of the population, and decision-makers about the impacts of climate change on Public Health.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The studies, regardless of the region or country, showing the relationships and impacts, local and global, of climatic variations on the health of populations.}, }
@article {pmid33728823, year = {2021}, author = {Gómez-Gras, D and Linares, C and Dornelas, M and Madin, JS and Brambilla, V and Ledoux, JB and López-Sendino, P and Bensoussan, N and Garrabou, J}, title = {Climate change transforms the functional identity of Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {1038-1051}, pmid = {33728823}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {ICREA Academia 2019//Instituci&#xf3; Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avan&#xe7;ats/ ; FPU15/05457//Ministerio de Educaci&#xf3;n, Cultura y Deporte/ ; CEX2019-000928-S//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades: Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence' accreditation/ ; MIMOSA/1983//Prince Albert II de Monaco Foundation/ ; Projects MPA-Adapt (1MED15_3.2_M2_337)//INTERREG MED PROGRAMME/ ; MPA-Engage (5216 | 5MED18_3.2_M23_007)//INTERREG MED PROGRAMME/ ; 2017SGR1521//Ag&#xe8;ncia de Gesti&#xf3; d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca/ ; #60501//John Templeton Foundation/ ; //Total foundation/ ; UIDB/04423/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; UIDP/04423/2020//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; HEATMED project (RTI2018-095346-B-I00)//MCIU/AEI/FEDER, UE/ ; MERCES/689518//H2020 European Research Council/ ; FutureMARES/SEP-210597628//H2020 European Research Council/ ; //Agence Nationale pour la Recherche (ANR)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Quantifying changes in functional community structure driven by disturbance is critical to anticipate potential shifts in ecosystem functioning. However, how marine heatwaves (MHWs) affect the functional structure of temperate coral-dominated communities is poorly understood. Here, we used five long-term (> 10 years) records of Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages in a multi-taxa, trait-based analysis to investigate MHW-driven changes in functional structure. We show that, despite stability in functional richness (i.e. the range of species functional traits), MHW-impacted assemblages experienced long-term directional changes in functional identity (i.e. their dominant trait values). Declining traits included large sizes, long lifespans, arborescent morphologies, filter-feeding strategies or calcified skeletons. These traits, which were mostly supported by few sensitive and irreplaceable species from a single functional group (habitat-forming octocorals), disproportionally influence certain ecosystem functions (e.g. 3D-habitat provision). Hence, MHWs are leading to assemblages that are deficient in key functional traits, with likely consequences for the ecosystem functioning.}, }
@article {pmid33728507, year = {2021}, author = {Maharjan, B and Gopali, RS and Zhang, Y}, title = {A scoping review on climate change and tuberculosis.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {65}, number = {10}, pages = {1579-1595}, pmid = {33728507}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Public Health ; *Tuberculosis/epidemiology ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global public health challenge. The changes in climatic factors affect the pattern and burden of tuberculosis, which is a worldwide public health problem affecting low and middle-income countries. However, the evidence related to the impact of climate change on tuberculosis is few and far between. This study is a scoping review following a five-stage version of Arksey and O'Malley's method. We searched the literature using the keywords and their combination in Google scholar, and PubMed. Climate change affects tuberculosis through diverse pathways: changes in climatic factors like temperature, humidity, and precipitation influence host response through alterations in vitamin D distribution, ultraviolet radiation, malnutrition, and other risk factors. The rise in extreme climatic events induces population displacement resulting in a greater number of vulnerable and risk populations of tuberculosis. It creates a conducive environment of tuberculosis transmission and development of active tuberculosis and disrupts tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment services. Therefore, it stands to reasons that climate change affects tuberculosis, particularly in highly vulnerable countries and areas. However, further studies and novel methodologies are required to address such a complex relationship and better understand the occurrence of tuberculosis attributable to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33727350, year = {2021}, author = {Casadevall, A and Kontoyiannis, DP and Robert, V}, title = {Environmental Candida auris and the Global Warming Emergence Hypothesis.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {33727350}, issn = {2150-7511}, support = {R01 AI052733/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; AI15207/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01 HL059842/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Candida/genetics ; *Candidiasis ; Global Warming ; Humans ; India ; Islands ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Global warming was proposed to be a contributing cause for the nearly simultaneous emergence of different clades of Candida auris as a nosocomial pathogen in different continents. The global warming emergence hypothesis posits that C. auris existed in the environment prior to its clinical recognition and became pathogenic for humans because of thermal adaptation in response to climate change. The isolation of C. auris from two sites in the remote Andaman Islands establishes it as an environmental organism, a necessary condition for the hypothesis. The observation that one environmental isolate grew slower at mammalian temperatures than clinical strains is consistent with the notion that their ancestor recently adapted to higher temperatures. The knowledge that C. auris can be recovered from the environment should prompt additional searches to define its ecological niches, and the analysis of future environmental isolates will provide evidence for validating or refuting the global warming emergence hypothesis.}, }
@article {pmid33725415, year = {2021}, author = {De Frenne, P and Lenoir, J and Luoto, M and Scheffers, BR and Zellweger, F and Aalto, J and Ashcroft, MB and Christiansen, DM and Decocq, G and De Pauw, K and Govaert, S and Greiser, C and Gril, E and Hampe, A and Jucker, T and Klinges, DH and Koelemeijer, IA and Lembrechts, JJ and Marrec, R and Meeussen, C and Ogée, J and Tyystjärvi, V and Vangansbeke, P and Hylander, K}, title = {Forest microclimates and climate change: Importance, drivers and future research agenda.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {11}, pages = {2279-2297}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15569}, pmid = {33725415}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//University of Wollongong/ ; NE/S01537X/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; ANR-19-CE32-0005-01//Agence National de la recherche/ ; ANR-10-LABX-45//Agence National de la recherche/ ; //National Science Foundation US/ ; 193645//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung/ ; ASP 035-19//Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; G0H1517N//Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; 12P1819N//Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; W001919N//Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; 337552//Academy of Finland/ ; //Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University/ ; 757833//H2020 European Research Council/ ; 2014-530//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; 2018- 588 2829//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; //Oscar and Lili Lamm Memorial Foundation/ ; BiodivERsA3-2015-58//EU ERA-NET BiodivERsA/ ; }, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Microclimate ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Forest microclimates contrast strongly with the climate outside forests. To fully understand and better predict how forests' biodiversity and functions relate to climate and climate change, microclimates need to be integrated into ecological research. Despite the potentially broad impact of microclimates on the response of forest ecosystems to global change, our understanding of how microclimates within and below tree canopies modulate biotic responses to global change at the species, community and ecosystem level is still limited. Here, we review how spatial and temporal variation in forest microclimates result from an interplay of forest features, local water balance, topography and landscape composition. We first stress and exemplify the importance of considering forest microclimates to understand variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions across forest landscapes. Next, we explain how macroclimate warming (of the free atmosphere) can affect microclimates, and vice versa, via interactions with land-use changes across different biomes. Finally, we perform a priority ranking of future research avenues at the interface of microclimate ecology and global change biology, with a specific focus on three key themes: (1) disentangling the abiotic and biotic drivers and feedbacks of forest microclimates; (2) global and regional mapping and predictions of forest microclimates; and (3) the impacts of microclimate on forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of climate change. The availability of microclimatic data will significantly increase in the coming decades, characterizing climate variability at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales relevant to biological processes in forests. This will revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics, drivers and implications of forest microclimates on biodiversity and ecological functions, and the impacts of global changes. In order to support the sustainable use of forests and to secure their biodiversity and ecosystem services for future generations, microclimates cannot be ignored.}, }
@article {pmid33723261, year = {2021}, author = {Barbarossa, V and Bosmans, J and Wanders, N and King, H and Bierkens, MFP and Huijbregts, MAJ and Schipper, AM}, title = {Threats of global warming to the world's freshwater fishes.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1701}, pmid = {33723261}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; *Fishes ; *Fresh Water ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Models, Biological ; Phylogeny ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to global biodiversity, but freshwater fishes have been largely ignored in climate change assessments. Here, we assess threats of future flow and water temperature extremes to ~11,500 riverine fish species. In a 3.2 °C warmer world (no further emission cuts after current governments' pledges for 2030), 36% of the species have over half of their present-day geographic range exposed to climatic extremes beyond current levels. Threats are largest in tropical and sub-arid regions and increases in maximum water temperature are more threatening than changes in flow extremes. In comparison, 9% of the species are projected to have more than half of their present-day geographic range threatened in a 2 °C warmer world, which further reduces to 4% of the species if warming is limited to 1.5 °C. Our results highlight the need to intensify (inter)national commitments to limit global warming if freshwater biodiversity is to be safeguarded.}, }
@article {pmid33722402, year = {2022}, author = {Mercuriali, L and Oliveras, L and Marí, M and Gómez, A and Montalvo, T and García-Rodríguez, A and Pérez, G and Villalbí, JR and , }, title = {[A public health surveillance system applied to climate change for cities].}, journal = {Gaceta sanitaria}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {283-286}, doi = {10.1016/j.gaceta.2021.01.003}, pmid = {33722402}, issn = {1578-1283}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Public Health ; *Public Health Surveillance ; }, abstract = {This paper makes a first proposal for a public health surveillance system for climate change in cities, and describes the process that led to its definition. After several years of monitoring different aspects related to climate change and its impact, the public health services of Barcelona made a preliminary proposal and gathered a working group of experts to discuss and review it. Four categories of components were defined: climate data, health impacts of climate change and its determinants, contributions of the city to mitigation (especially those with health co-benefits), and actions to reduce vulnerability to extreme events. They were broken in twelve components, with indicators for each. The proposal was further refined with subsequent reviews, and is being used by the city public health services involved in this field.}, }
@article {pmid33721580, year = {2021}, author = {Bolderdijk, JW and Jans, L}, title = {Minority influence in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {25-30}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.02.005}, pmid = {33721580}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Minority Groups ; Social Change ; }, abstract = {While the majority of people care about environmental quality, they keep engaging in carbon-intensive practices that exacerbate climate change. Can we expect humans to collectively change by themselves, from the bottom up? Social change is often initiated by minorities - individuals who challenge the status quo. The dominant literature paints a rather pessimistic picture about the ability of minorities to instigate change in the environmental domain: environmental activists, vegans, and other minority members often elicit social sanctions, thereby ironically reinforcing the majority's commitment to current, environmentally harmful norms. Recent findings, however, point towards more optimism: pro-environmental minorities can pave the way towards 'tipping points' and spontaneous social change. Policymakers can speed up this process by offering top-down support for minorities - by giving them 'voice'.}, }
@article {pmid33721243, year = {2021}, author = {Neale, RE and Barnes, PW and Robson, TM and Neale, PJ and Williamson, CE and Zepp, RG and Wilson, SR and Madronich, S and Andrady, AL and Heikkilä, AM and Bernhard, GH and Bais, AF and Aucamp, PJ and Banaszak, AT and Bornman, JF and Bruckman, LS and Byrne, SN and Foereid, B and Häder, DP and Hollestein, LM and Hou, WC and Hylander, S and Jansen, MAK and Klekociuk, AR and Liley, JB and Longstreth, J and Lucas, RM and Martinez-Abaigar, J and McNeill, K and Olsen, CM and Pandey, KK and Rhodes, LE and Robinson, SA and Rose, KC and Schikowski, T and Solomon, KR and Sulzberger, B and Ukpebor, JE and Wang, QW and Wängberg, S&#xc5; and White, CC and Yazar, S and Young, AR and Young, PJ and Zhu, L and Zhu, M}, title = {Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2020.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {1-67}, pmid = {33721243}, issn = {1474-9092}, abstract = {This assessment by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) provides the latest scientific update since our most recent comprehensive assessment (Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences, 2019, 18, 595-828). The interactive effects between the stratospheric ozone layer, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and climate change are presented within the framework of the Montreal Protocol and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We address how these global environmental changes affect the atmosphere and air quality; human health; terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; biogeochemical cycles; and materials used in outdoor construction, solar energy technologies, and fabrics. In many cases, there is a growing influence from changes in seasonality and extreme events due to climate change. Additionally, we assess the transmission and environmental effects of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, in the context of linkages with solar UV radiation and the Montreal Protocol.}, }
@article {pmid33718550, year = {2021}, author = {Kreft, CS and Angst, M and Huber, R and Finger, R}, title = {Social network data of Swiss farmers related to agricultural climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {106898}, pmid = {33718550}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {We present social network data of Swiss farmers, focusing on exchange and advice relations regarding agricultural climate change mitigation. The data were generated via face-to-face interviews in 2019 using the survey software Network Canvas (https://networkcanvas.com). We interviewed 50 farmers, with 25 of these participating in a regional climate protection initiative in Switzerland as well as 25 farmers located in the same region who did not participate in the initiative. Farmers were asked to indicate the persons with whom they regularly exchanged on topics related to climate change and mitigation in agriculture. The farmers assessed the type and strength of their relationships and were asked to rate the knowledge of their contacts regarding climate change mitigation. We also collected data on the perceived influence of farmers and other persons on farming decisions. Information on farmers' adoption of climate change mitigation measures and behavioural characteristics was collected in a previous online survey. Farm characteristics were obtained from census data.}, }
@article {pmid33718477, year = {2021}, author = {Lee, KW and Michiels, J and Choi, YH}, title = {Editorial: Impact of Climate Change on Poultry Metabolism.}, journal = {Frontiers in veterinary science}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {654678}, doi = {10.3389/fvets.2021.654678}, pmid = {33718477}, issn = {2297-1769}, }
@article {pmid33717459, year = {2021}, author = {Martin, Y and Titeux, N and Van Dyck, H}, title = {Range expansion, habitat use, and choosiness in a butterfly under climate change: Marginality and tolerance of oviposition site selection.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {2336-2345}, pmid = {33717459}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Poleward range shifts under climate change involve the colonization of new sites and hence the foundation of new populations at the expanding edge. We studied oviposition site selection in a butterfly under range expansion (Lycaena dispar), a key process for the establishment of new populations. We described and compared the microhabitats used by the species for egg laying with those available across the study sites both in edge and in core populations. We carried out an ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) to estimate (1) the variety of microhabitats used by the butterfly for egg laying (tolerance) and (2) the extent to which these selected microhabitats deviated from those available (marginality). Microhabitat availability was similar in edge and core populations. Ambient temperature recorded at the site level above the vegetation was on average lower at core populations. In contrast with what is often assumed, edge populations did not have narrower microhabitat use compared to core populations. Females in edge populations even showed a higher degree of generalism: They laid eggs under a wider range of microhabitats. We suggest that this pattern could be related to an overrepresentation of fast deciding personalities in edge populations. We also showed that the thermal time window for active female behavior was reduced in edge populations, which could significantly decrease the time budget for oviposition and decrease the threshold of acceptance during microhabitat selection for oviposition in recently established populations.}, }
@article {pmid33716364, year = {2021}, author = {Kim, B and Kay, DL and Schuldt, JP}, title = {Will I have to move because of climate change? Perceived likelihood of weather- or climate-related relocation among the US public.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {165}, number = {1}, pages = {9}, pmid = {33716364}, issn = {0165-0009}, }
@article {pmid33715918, year = {2021}, author = {Coleman, MA and Wernberg, T}, title = {A Glass Half Full: Solutions-Oriented Management under Climate Change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {36}, number = {5}, pages = {385-386}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2021.02.009}, pmid = {33715918}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid33715023, year = {2021}, author = {Miedaner, T and Juroszek, P}, title = {Climate change will influence disease resistance breeding in wheat in Northwestern Europe.}, journal = {TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik}, volume = {134}, number = {6}, pages = {1771-1785}, pmid = {33715023}, issn = {1432-2242}, support = {281B202116//Bundesanstalt f&#xfc;r Landwirtschaft und Ern&#xe4;hrung/ ; 281B202616//Bundesanstalt f&#xfc;r Landwirtschaft und Ern&#xe4;hrung (DE)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disease Resistance/*genetics ; Droughts ; Edible Grain/genetics/microbiology ; Europe ; Fusarium ; Hot Temperature ; Plant Breeding ; Plant Diseases/*genetics/microbiology ; Quantitative Trait Loci ; Stress, Physiological ; Triticum/*genetics/microbiology ; }, abstract = {Wheat productivity is threatened by global climate change. In several parts of NW Europe it will get warmer and dryer during the main crop growing period. The resulting likely lower realized on-farm crop yields must be kept by breeding for resistance against already existing and emerging diseases among other measures. Multi-disease resistance will get especially crucial. In this review, we focus on disease resistance breeding approaches in wheat, especially related to rust diseases and Fusarium head blight, because simulation studies of potential future disease risk have shown that these diseases will be increasingly relevant in the future. The long-term changes in disease occurrence must inevitably lead to adjustments of future resistance breeding strategies, whereby stability and durability of disease resistance under heat and water stress will be important in the future. In general, it would be important to focus on non-temperature sensitive resistance genes/QTLs. To conclude, research on the effects of heat and drought stress on disease resistance reactions must be given special attention in the future.}, }
@article {pmid33714806, year = {2021}, author = {Bidarmaghz, A and Choudhary, R and Narsilio, G and Soga, K}, title = {Impacts of underground climate change on urban geothermal potential: Lessons learnt from a case study in London.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {778}, number = {}, pages = {146196}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146196}, pmid = {33714806}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {While urban underground is being increasingly used for various purposes, two concerns should be addressed with respect to the urban underground climate change: i) how much energy has been stored in urban subsurface due to the heat rejection from underground heated spaces (such as tunnels and basements) and ii) how much of the thermal demand of a city or district can be supplied by harvesting this accumulative thermal energy in the ground. However, our understanding of the temperature rise in the ground and of the geothermal potential of urban subsurface is still limited. This paper quantifies the geothermal potential for a 12 km[2] densely populated borough in central London by considering the spatio-temporal temperature variation in the ground owing to continuous rejection of heat into the ground, coupled with the effect of geothermal extraction capacity. A large-scale transient semi-3D geothermal subsurface model of the site is developed, and the thermal interaction between underground heated spaces, geothermal energy extraction systems and the ground and groundwater are simulated. The concurrent heat rejection and extraction processes in the subsurface are computed so that the most influencing parameters of the subsurface on its geothermal potential are identified. Results show that up to 50% of the borough's total heat demand can be supplied via geothermal installations leading to around 33% reduction in CO2 emission. The geothermal extraction efficiency in sand and gravel primarily depends on the ground conditions such as the thickness of the permeable layer and the groundwater flow regime. In impermeable ground such as clay, however, the underground built environment such as heated spaces have shown to have a significant impact on improving the geothermal extraction efficiency.}, }
@article {pmid33713709, year = {2021}, author = {Silveira, IH and Cortes, TR and de Oliveira, BFA and Junger, WL}, title = {Projections of excess cardiovascular mortality related to temperature under different climate change scenarios and regionalized climate model simulations in Brazilian cities.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {197}, number = {}, pages = {110995}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.110995}, pmid = {33713709}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Brazil/epidemiology ; *Cardiovascular Diseases ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mortality ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for more information about the climate change impact on health in order to strengthen the commitment to tackle climate change. However, few studies have quantified the health impact of climate change in Brazil and in the Latin America region. In this paper, we projected the impacts of temperature on cardiovascular (CVD) mortality according to two climate change scenarios and two regionalized climate model simulations in Brazilian cities.<br><br>METHODS: We estimated the temperature-CVD mortality relationship in 21 Brazilian cities, using distributed lag non-linear models in a two-stage time-series analysis. We combined the observed exposure-response functions with the daily temperature projected under two representative concentration pathways (RCP), RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, and two regionalized climate model simulations, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5.<br><br>RESULTS: We observed a trend of reduction in mortality related to low temperatures and a trend of increase in mortality related to high temperatures, according to all the investigated models and scenarios. In most places, the increase in mortality related to high temperatures outweighed the reduction in mortality related to low temperatures, causing a net increase in the excess temperature-related mortality. These trends were steeper according to the higher emission scenario, RCP8.5, and to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model. According to RCP8.5, our projections suggested that the temperature-related mortality fractions in 2090-99 compared to 2010-2019 would increase by 8.6% and 1.7%, under Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5, respectively. According to RCP4.5, these values would be 0.7% and -0.6%.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: For the same climate model, we observed a greater increase trend in temperature-CVD mortality according to RCP8.5, highlighting a greater health impact associated with the higher emission scenario. Our results may be useful to support public policies and strategies for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, particularly in the health sector.}, }
@article {pmid33713617, year = {2021}, author = {Helldén, D and Andersson, C and Nilsson, M and Ebi, KL and Friberg, P and Alfvén, T}, title = {Climate change and child health: a scoping review and an expanded conceptual framework.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {3}, pages = {e164-e175}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30274-6}, pmid = {33713617}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/transmission ; Environmental Exposure ; Food Insecurity ; Humans ; Mental Health ; Risk ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change can have detrimental effects on child health and wellbeing. Despite the imperative for a fuller understanding of how climate change affects child health and wellbeing, a systematic approach and focus solely on children (aged <18 years) has been lacking. In this Scoping Review, we did a literature search on the impacts of climate change on child health from January, 2000, to June, 2019. The included studies explicitly linked an alteration of an exposure to a risk factor for child health to climate change or climate variability. In total, 2970 original articles, reviews, and other documents were identified, of which 371 were analysed. Employing an expanded framework, our analysis showed that the effects of climate change on child health act through direct and indirect pathways, with implications for determinants of child health as well as morbidity and mortality from a range of diseases. This understanding can be further enhanced by using a broader range of research methods, studying overlooked populations and geographical regions, investigating the costs and benefits of mitigation and adaptation for child health, and considering the position of climate change and child health within the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Present and future generations of children bear and will continue to bear an unacceptably high disease burden from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33712899, year = {2021}, author = {Nassery, HR and Zeydalinejad, N and Alijani, F and Shakiba, A}, title = {A proposed modelling towards the potential impacts of climate change on a semi-arid, small-scaled aquifer: a case study of Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {4}, pages = {182}, pmid = {33712899}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Groundwater ; Humans ; Iran ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Several studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on the alluvial aquifers; however, no research has been carried out on a small-scale aquifer without any human influences and pumping wells. The object of this study is to assess the response of such an aquifer to the climate change to observe if it can preserve its storage or not. Pali aquifer, southwest Iran, is solely discharged by Taraz-Harkesh stream and geological formations. On the other hand, it is recharged by precipitation and geological formations. The Taraz-Harkesh stream's discharge rates and the Pali aquifer's groundwater level were simulated by IHACRES and MODFLOW, respectively, in the base (1961-1990) and future (2021-2050) time periods under two Representative Concentration Pathways, i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The outputs of IHACRES were regarded as the input of MODFLOW. The groundwater model was calibrated in the steady-state for the hydrological year 2007 and in the unsteady-state for the time period 2008-2014 with annual time steps. Further, the groundwater model was verified for the time period 2015-2018. The statistical criteria maintained the groundwater model's ability, consequently measuring the root mean square error to be 0.69, 0.85, and 1.18 m for the steady calibration, unsteady calibration and verification of the groundwater model, respectively. Results indicate that the stream's discharge rates would decrease in the future time period, especially under RCP8.5. Nevertheless, the groundwater level would not fluctuate considerably. Indeed, the groundwater resources, even a semi-arid, small-scaled aquifer, may be considered as the water supplying systems under the future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33710106, year = {2021}, author = {Senay, E and Gore, K and Sherman, J and Patel, S and Ziska, L and Lucchini, R and DeFelice, N and Just, A and Nabeel, I and Thanik, E and Sheffield, P and Rizzo, A and Wright, R}, title = {Coming Together for Climate and Health: Proceedings of the Second Annual Clinical Climate Change Meeting, January 24, 2020.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {63}, number = {5}, pages = {e308-e313}, pmid = {33710106}, issn = {1536-5948}, support = {P30 ES023515/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change is imposing increasingly severe impacts on public health. Addressing these impacts requires heightened awareness of climate-driven health conditions and appropriate clinical practices to manage these conditions. Within this context, the 2[nd] Annual Clinical Climate Change Conference, held January 24, 2020 at the New York Academy of Medicine, brought together more than 150 allied health practitioners from across the United States for a one-day conference showcasing the state of the science on the climate and health. Eight platform presentations—including a keynote address from Karenna Gore of the Center for Earth Ethics at Union Theological Seminary—covered a range of environmentally induced, climate-related disease areas as well as topics related to environmental justice. Additionally, key workshops engaged participants in the clinical management of climate-related health conditions. Communicating the existing evidence base for climate change-driven impacts on human health is crucial for preparing practitioners to identify and address these impacts. Further partnership between researchers and practitioners to extend and disseminate this evidence base will yield important advancements toward protecting patients and improving health outcomes in an era of climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid33709612, year = {2021}, author = {Baggesen, N and Li, T and Seco, R and Holst, T and Michelsen, A and Rinnan, R}, title = {Phenological stage of tundra vegetation controls bidirectional exchange of BVOCs in a climate change experiment on a subarctic heath.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {12}, pages = {2928-2944}, pmid = {33709612}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DFF-4181-00141//Det Frie Forskningsr&#xe5;d/ ; DNRF100//Danmarks Grundforskningsfond/ ; 771012/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Sweden ; Tundra ; *Volatile Organic Compounds ; }, abstract = {Traditionally, biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions are often considered a unidirectional flux, from the ecosystem to the atmosphere, but recent studies clearly show the potential for bidirectional exchange. Here we aimed to investigate how warming and leaf litter addition affect the bidirectional exchange (flux) of BVOCs in a long-term field experiment in the Subarctic. We also assessed changes in net BVOC fluxes in relation to the time of day and the influence of different plant phenological stages. The study was conducted in a full factorial experiment with open top chamber warming and annual litter addition treatments in a tundra heath in Abisko, Northern Sweden. After 18 years of treatments, ecosystem-level net BVOC fluxes were measured in the experimental plots using proton-transfer-reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometry (PTR-ToF-MS). The warming treatment increased monoterpene and isoprene emissions by ≈50%. Increasing temperature, due to diurnal variations, can both increase BVOC emission and simultaneously, increase ecosystem uptake. For any given treatment, monoterpene, isoprene, and acetone emissions also increased with increasing ambient air temperatures caused by diurnal variability. Acetaldehyde, methanol, and sesquiterpenes decreased likely due to a deposition flux. For litter addition, only a significant indirect effect on isoprene and monoterpene fluxes (decrease by ~50%-75%) was observed. Litter addition may change soil moisture conditions, leading to changes in plant species composition and biomass, which could subsequently result in changes to BVOC emission compositions. Phenological stages significantly affected fluxes of methanol, isoprene and monoterpenes. We suggest that plant phenological stages differ in impacts on BVOC net emissions, but ambient air temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) also interact and influence BVOC net emissions differently. Our results may also suggest that BVOC fluxes are not only a response to changes in temperature and light intensity, as the circadian clock also affects emission rates.}, }
@article {pmid33707660, year = {2021}, author = {Sunstein, CR}, title = {Green defaults can combat climate change.}, journal = {Nature human behaviour}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {548-549}, pmid = {33707660}, issn = {2397-3374}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33707264, year = {2021}, author = {Gudmundsson, L and Boulange, J and Do, HX and Gosling, SN and Grillakis, MG and Koutroulis, AG and Leonard, M and Liu, J and Müller Schmied, H and Papadimitriou, L and Pokhrel, Y and Seneviratne, SI and Satoh, Y and Thiery, W and Westra, S and Zhang, X and Zhao, F}, title = {Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {371}, number = {6534}, pages = {1159-1162}, doi = {10.1126/science.aba3996}, pmid = {33707264}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patterns, where some regions are drying and others are wetting consistently across low, mean, and high flows. Trends computed from state-of-the-art model simulations are consistent with the observations only if radiative forcing that accounts for anthropogenic climate change is considered. Simulated effects of water and land management do not suffice to reproduce the observed trend pattern. Thus, the analysis provides clear evidence for the role of externally forced climate change as a causal driver of recent trends in mean and extreme river flow at the global scale.}, }
@article {pmid33706494, year = {2020}, author = {Pecoraro, L and Dalle Carbonare, L and De Franceschi, L and Piacentini, G and Pietrobelli, A}, title = {[Climate change, air pollution, and increase of respiratory allergies: just a coincidence or something more?].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {44}, number = {5-6}, pages = {405-409}, doi = {10.19191/EP20.5-6.P405.017}, pmid = {33706494}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Allergens ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/etiology ; Italy/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {It is well known that the prevalence of respiratory allergies has increased over time. At the same time, climate change has become part of our everyday life. The resulting question is whether this 'allergic epidemic' is linked to this aspect. It is assumed that the causes of the increase of respiratory allergies are mainly related to environmental factors and lifestyle: first, the improvement of social and health conditions and related hygiene hypothesis; secondly, lifestyle change and anthropogenic activities, which have caused an alteration in the balance normally existing between soil, water, and atmosphere, giving rise to the phenomena of climate change. In fact, it has been demonstrated that they can influence beginning, duration, and intensity of the pollen season, as well as the allergenicity of pollen. The consequence is both an increase in frequency and intensity of allergic symptomatology in subjects previously affected by allergy, and a promotion of the sensitization of the airways to allergens present in the atmosphere in predisposed subjects. Several intervention strategies aiming to mitigate climate change and reduce anthropogenic emissions and, consequently, respiratory allergies are possible and can be implemented on an individual and social level. It follows that the allergist cannot solve the problem of the progressive increase of respiratory allergies on his own. Anyway, his role can have both clinical and educational purposes with a special commitment to reduce health impact due to environmental risk factors. KEYWORDS: respiratory allergies; allergenic potential of pollen; climate change; pollution.}, }
@article {pmid33706090, year = {2021}, author = {Tirpak, RA and Hathaway, JM and Khojandi, A and Weathers, M and Epps, TH}, title = {Building resiliency to climate change uncertainty through bioretention design modifications.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {287}, number = {}, pages = {112300}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112300}, pmid = {33706090}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Hydrology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Tennessee ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate stationarity is a traditional assumption in the design of the urban drainage network, including green infrastructure practices such as bioretention cells. Predicted deviations from historic climate trends associated with global climate change introduce uncertainty in the ability of these systems to maintain service levels in the future. Climate change projections are made using output from coarse-scale general circulation models (GCMs), which can then be downscaled using regional climate models (RCMs) to provide predictions at a finer spatial resolution. However, all models contain sources of error and uncertainty, and predicted changes in future climate can be contradictory between models, requiring an approach that considers multiple projections. The performance of bioretention cells were modeled using USEPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to determine how design modifications could add resilience to these systems under future climate conditions projected for Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. Ten downscaled climate projections were acquired from the North American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment program, and model bias was corrected using Kernel Density Distribution Mapping (KDDM). Bias-corrected climate projections were used to assess bioretention hydrologic function in future climate conditions. Several scenarios were evaluated using a probabilistic approach to determine the confidence with which design modifications could be implemented to maintain historic performance for both new and existing (retrofitted) bioretention cells. The largest deviations from current design (i.e., concurrently increasing ponding depths, thickness of media layer, media conductivity rates, and bioretention surface areas by 307%, 200%, 200%, and 300%, respectively, beyond current standards) resulted in the greatest improvements on historic performance with respect to annual volumes of infiltration and surface overflow, with all ten future climate scenarios across various soil types yielding increased infiltration and decreased surface overflow compared to historic conditions. However, lower performance was observed for more conservative design modifications; on average, between 13-82% and 77-100% of models fell below historic annual volumes of infiltration and surface overflow, respectively, when ponding zone depth, media layer thickness, and media conductivity were increased alone. Findings demonstrate that increasing bioretention surface area relative to the contributing catchment provides the greatest overall return on historic performance under future climate conditions and should be prioritized in locations with low in situ soil drainage rates. This study highlights the importance of considering local site conditions and management objectives when incorporating resiliency to climate change uncertainty into bioretention designs.}, }
@article {pmid33706089, year = {2021}, author = {Karimi, T and Stöckle, CO and Higgins, SS and Nelson, RL}, title = {Impact of climate change on greenhouse gas emissions and water balance in a dryland-cropping region with variable precipitation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {287}, number = {}, pages = {112301}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112301}, pmid = {33706089}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon ; Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Northwestern United States ; Soil ; Water ; }, abstract = {Wheat covers a significant fraction of the US Pacific Northwest (PNW) dryland agriculture. Past studies have suggested that management practices can differentially affect productivity and emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) across the different agro-ecological Zones (AEZs) in PNW. In this study we used CropSyst, a biophysically-based cropping systems model that simulates crop processes and water and nitrogen cycles, with the purpose of evaluating relevant scenarios and contributing analyses to inform adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed at reducing and managing the risks of climate change. We compared the baseline historical period of 1980-2010 with three future periods: 2015-2045 (2030s), 2035-2065 (2050s), and 2055-2085 (2070s). The uncertainty of the future climate was captured using 12 general circulation models (GCMs) forced with two representative carbon dioxide concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The study region was divided into three AEZs: crop-fallow (CF), continuous cropping to fallow transition (CCF), and continuous cropping (CC). The results indicated that areas with higher precipitation, N fertilization, and mineralization produced more N2O emissions during both baseline and future periods. The average annual N2O emission during the baseline period was between 1.8 and 4.1 kg ha[-1] depending on AEZ. The overall N2O emission showed decreasing future trends from 2030s to 2070s which resulted from a higher proportion of N used by crops. From 2015 to 2085 under RCP 4.5, the average N2O emission was between 1.8 and 4.4 kg ha[-1] year[-1]. They are slightly higher under RCP 8.5 since it is a warmer scenario. The soil organic carbon (SOC) content decreased during the baseline period while SOC did not reach equilibrium with the cropping systems considered in the study. SOC decreased during the future periods as well, with rate of change ranging from -146 to -352 kg ha[-1]year[-1] depending on AEZ and RCP. Warming increased SOC oxidation in future scenarios, but after an initial increase of SOC losses during the 2030s period, the rate of SOC losses decreased in the 2050s, and more so in the 2070s as SOC and carbon input reached equilibrium with losses. Higher carbon input resulted from higher biomass production under elevated CO2 scenarios. The total GHG emissions were 1.95, 3.16 and 4.84 Mg CO2-equivalent ha[-1]year[-1] under RCP 4.5, and 1.99, 3.43 and 5.49 Mg CO2-equivalent ha[-1]year[-1] under RCP 8.5 during 2070s in CF, CCF and CC respectively, with N2O accounting for about 81% of total GHG emissions.}, }
@article {pmid33705771, year = {2021}, author = {Liang, D and Lee, WC and Liao, J and Lawrence, J and Wolfson, JM and Ebelt, ST and Kang, CM and Koutrakis, P and Sarnat, JA}, title = {Estimating climate change-related impacts on outdoor air pollution infiltration.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {196}, number = {}, pages = {110923}, pmid = {33705771}, issn = {1096-0953}, support = {P30 ES019776/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; *Air Pollution, Indoor/analysis ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Particle Size ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Rising temperatures due to climate change are expected to impact human adaptive response, including changes to home cooling and ventilation patterns. These changes may affect air pollution exposures via alteration in residential air exchange rates, affecting indoor infiltration of outdoor particles. We conducted a field study examining associations between particle infiltration and temperature to inform future studies of air pollution health effects.<br><br>METHODS: We measured indoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Atlanta in 60 homes (810 sampling-days). Indoor-outdoor sulfur ratios were used to estimate particle infiltration, using central site outdoor sulfur concentrations. Linear and mixed-effects models were used to examine particle infiltration ratio-temperature relationships, based on which we incorporated projected meteorological values (Representative Concentration Pathways intermediate scenario RCP 4.5) to estimate particle infiltration ratios in 20-year future (2046-2065) and past (1981-2000) scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: The mean particle infiltration ratio in Atlanta was 0.70&#xa0;&#xb1;&#xa0;0.30, with a 0.21 lower ratio in summer compared to transition seasons (spring, fall). Particle infiltration ratios were 0.19 lower in houses using heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems compared to those not using HVAC. We observed significant associations between particle infiltration ratios and both linear and quadratic models of ambient temperature for homes using natural ventilation and those using HVAC. Future temperature was projected to increase by 2.1&#xa0;&#xb0;C in Atlanta, which corresponds to an increase of 0.023 (3.9%) in particle infiltration ratios during cooler months and a decrease of 0.037 (6.2%) during warmer months.<br><br>DISCUSSION: We estimated notable changes in particle infiltration ratio in Atlanta for different 20-year periods, with differential seasonal patterns. Moreover, when stratified by HVAC usage, increases in future ambient temperature due to climate change were projected to enhance seasonal differences in PM2.5 infiltration in Atlanta. These analyses can help minimize exposure misclassification in epidemiologic studies of PM2.5, and provide a better understanding of the potential influence of climate change on PM2.5 health effects.}, }
@article {pmid33704844, year = {2021}, author = {Rudd, JA}, title = {From Climate Change Ignorant to Climate Change Educator.}, journal = {Chemistry (Weinheim an der Bergstrasse, Germany)}, volume = {27}, number = {20}, pages = {6107-6111}, doi = {10.1002/chem.202004414}, pmid = {33704844}, issn = {1521-3765}, abstract = {What happens when you teach someone about the effects of climate change? Dr Jennifer Rudd shares her reaction to hearing that the world could be on track for 4 °C of global heating in her lifetime and describes how she has made dramatic changes to her home life, her career and her lifestyle, and launched a new climate change education programme called You and CO2 .}, }
@article {pmid33694308, year = {2021}, author = {Fourcade, Y and WallisDeVries, MF and Kuussaari, M and van Swaay, CAM and Heliölä, J and Öckinger, E}, title = {Habitat amount and distribution modify community dynamics under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {950-957}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13691}, pmid = {33694308}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {2016-00667//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; 942-2015-988//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Butterflies ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Habitat fragmentation may present a major impediment to species range shifts caused by climate change, but how it affects local community dynamics in a changing climate has so far not been adequately investigated empirically. Using long-term monitoring data of butterfly assemblages, we tested the effects of the amount and distribution of semi-natural habitat (SNH), moderated by species traits, on climate-driven species turnover. We found that spatially dispersed SNH favoured the colonisation of warm-adapted and mobile species. In contrast, extinction risk of cold-adapted species increased in dispersed (as opposed to aggregated) habitats and when the amount of SNH was low. Strengthening habitat networks by maintaining or creating stepping-stone patches could thus allow warm-adapted species to expand their range, while increasing the area of natural habitat and its spatial cohesion may be important to aid the local persistence of species threatened by a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid33693895, year = {2021}, author = {Ossebaard, HC and Lachman, P}, title = {Climate change, environmental sustainability and health care quality.}, journal = {International journal for quality in health care : journal of the International Society for Quality in Health Care}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33693895}, issn = {1464-3677}, mesh = {COVID-19/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Health Promotion/organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Internationality ; Pandemics ; Quality of Health Care/*organization &amp; administration ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {The challenges for health care continue to grow and in the 21st century healthcare policymakers and providers will need to respond to the developing impact of global warming and the environmental impact of healthcare service delivery. This cannot be viewed apart from the current Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, which is likely to be linked to the climate crisis.}, }
@article {pmid33692343, year = {2021}, author = {Rodó, X and Martinez, PP and Siraj, A and Pascual, M}, title = {Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1555}, pmid = {33692343}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Incidence ; Malaria/*epidemiology ; Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology ; Plasmodium falciparum/pathogenicity ; Plasmodium vivax/pathogenicity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {A counterargument to the importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been that regions where an effect of warmer temperatures is expected, have experienced a marked decrease in seasonal epidemic size since the turn of the new century. This decline has been observed in the densely populated highlands of East Africa at the center of the earlier debate on causes of the pronounced increase in epidemic size from the 1970s to the 1990s. The turnaround of the incidence trend around 2000 is documented here with an extensive temporal record for malaria cases for both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in an Ethiopian highland. With statistical analyses and a process-based transmission model, we show that this decline was driven by the transient slowdown in global warming and associated changes in climate variability, especially ENSO. Decadal changes in temperature and concurrent climate variability facilitated rather than opposed the effect of interventions.}, }
@article {pmid33689948, year = {2021}, author = {Ding, Y and Li, L and Wania, F and Huang, H and Zhang, Y and Peng, B and Chen, Y and Qi, S}, title = {Do dissipation and transformation of γ-HCH and p,p'-DDT in soil respond to a proxy for climate change? Insights from a field study on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {278}, number = {}, pages = {116824}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2021.116824}, pmid = {33689948}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Climate Change ; DDT/analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hexachlorocyclohexane/analysis ; *Hydrocarbons, Chlorinated/analysis ; *Pesticides/analysis ; Soil ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {While the influence of climate change on the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is becoming a topic of global concern, it has yet to be demonstrated how POPs and their transformation products in soil respond to a changing climate at the local scale. We conducted a year-long field experiment with spiked soils to investigate the impact of climate on the dissipation of γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (γ-HCH) and p,p'-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (p,p'-DDT) as well as the formation of their products. Four sites along an elevational gradient on the eastern Tibetan Plateau were selected to represent four scenarios ranging from a dry and cold to a warm and humid climate. Based on the measured concentrations of the two pesticides and their transformation products, we calculated the dissipation rates of γ-HCH and p,p'-DDT in soil using two biphasic kinetic models, and the formation rates of transformation products using a mid-point rectangular approximation method. The spiked γ-HCH generally showed the expected decrease in dissipation from soils with increasing altitudes, and therefore decreasing temperature and precipitation, whereas dissipation of p,p'-DDT was influenced more by photolysis and sequestration in soil. The formation rates of the primary products of γ-HCH (i.e. γ-HCH→PeCCH and γ-HCH→TeCCH) and p,p'-DDT (i.e. p,p'-DDT→p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT→p,p'-DDD) indicate that a warmer and wetter climate favors dechloroelimination (anaerobic biodegradation) over dehydrochlorination (aerobic biodegradation). The significantly longer dissipation half-lives of γ-HCH at the coldest site suggests that the fate of POPs in frozen regions (e.g. polar regions) needs more attention. Overall, the fate of more volatile chemicals (e.g. γ-HCH) might be more responsive to the climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33689425, year = {2021}, author = {Moulton, AD}, title = {Congress and Health Advocates Can Build a Climate Change-Adapted Health Sector.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {111}, number = {4}, pages = {568-570}, pmid = {33689425}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Gases/*adverse effects ; *Health Equity ; Humans ; *Politics ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid33689410, year = {2021}, author = {Frumkin, H}, title = {Health Care Waste and Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {111}, number = {4}, pages = {e15}, pmid = {33689410}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Health Facilities ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33689139, year = {2021}, author = {Bernard, P and Chevance, G and Kingsbury, C and Baillot, A and Romain, AJ and Molinier, V and Gadais, T and Dancause, KN}, title = {Climate Change, Physical Activity and Sport: A Systematic Review.}, journal = {Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.)}, volume = {51}, number = {5}, pages = {1041-1059}, pmid = {33689139}, issn = {1179-2035}, mesh = {Aged ; *Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Exercise ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change impacts are associated with dramatic consequences for human health and threaten physical activity (PA) behaviors.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The aims of this systematic review were to present the potential bidirectional associations between climate change impacts and PA behaviors in humans and to propose a synthesis of the literature through a conceptual model of climate change and PA.<br><br>METHODS: Studies published before October 2020 were identified through database searches in PubMed, PsycARTICLES, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, GreenFILE, GeoRef, Scopus, JSTOR and Transportation Research Information Services. Studies examining the associations between PA domains and climate change (e.g., natural disasters, air pollution, and carbon footprint) were included.<br><br>RESULTS: A narrative synthesis was performed and the 74 identified articles were classified into 6 topics: air pollution and PA, extreme weather conditions and PA, greenhouse gas emissions and PA, carbon footprint among sport participants, natural disasters and PA and the future of PA and sport practices in a changing world. Then, a conceptual model was proposed to identify the multidimensional associations between climate change and PA as well as sport practices. Results indicated a consistent negative effect of air pollution, extreme temperatures and natural disasters on PA levels. This PA reduction is more severe in adults with chronic diseases, higher body mass index and the elderly. Sport and PA communities can play an important mitigating role in post-natural disaster contexts. However, transport related to sport practices is also a source of greenhouse gas emissions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change impacts affect PA at a worldwide scale. PA is observed to play both a mitigation and an amplification role in climate changes.<br><br>TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PROSPERO CRD42019128314.}, }
@article {pmid33688373, year = {2021}, author = {Kristiansen, S and Painter, J and Shea, M}, title = {Animal Agriculture and Climate Change in the US and UK Elite Media: Volume, Responsibilities, Causes and Solutions.}, journal = {Environmental communication}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {153-172}, pmid = {33688373}, issn = {1752-4040}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 205212/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 205212/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Animal agriculture is a major producer of greenhouse gas emissions, equivalent to 14.5% of global emissions, which is approximately the same size as the transportation sector. Global meat consumption is projected to grow, which will increase animal agriculture's negative impact on the environment. Public awareness of the link between animal food consumption and climate change is low; this may be one of many obstacles to more effective interventions to reduce meat consumption in Western diets, which has been proposed by many research institutions. This study analyzes how much attention the UK and US elite media paid to animal agriculture's role in climate change, and the roles and responsibilities of various parties in addressing the problem, from 2006 to 2018. The results of the quantitative media content analysis show that during that period, volume of coverage remained low, and that when the issue was covered, consumer responsibility was mentioned more than that of governments or largescale livestock farms. In similar fashion, a range of options around personal dietary change was far more prominent in the media discussion of solutions than government policies, reforming agricultural practices or holding major animal food companies accountable for their emissions.}, }
@article {pmid33687945, year = {2021}, author = {Li, Y and Cao, K and Li, N and Zhu, G and Fang, W and Chen, C and Wang, X and Guo, J and Wang, Q and Ding, T and Wang, J and Guan, L and Wang, J and Liu, K and Guo, W and Arús, P and Huang, S and Fei, Z and Wang, L}, title = {Genomic analyses provide insights into peach local adaptation and responses to climate change.}, journal = {Genome research}, volume = {31}, number = {4}, pages = {592-606}, pmid = {33687945}, issn = {1549-5469}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; Genome, Plant/*genetics ; *Genomics ; Prunus persica/*genetics ; }, abstract = {The environment has constantly shaped plant genomes, but the genetic bases underlying how plants adapt to environmental influences remain largely unknown. We constructed a high-density genomic variation map of 263 geographically representative peach landraces and wild relatives. A combination of whole-genome selection scans and genome-wide environmental association studies (GWEAS) was performed to reveal the genomic bases of peach adaptation to diverse climates. A total of 2092 selective sweeps that underlie local adaptation to both mild and extreme climates were identified, including 339 sweeps conferring genomic pattern of adaptation to high altitudes. Using genome-wide environmental association studies (GWEAS), a total of 2755 genomic loci strongly associated with 51 specific environmental variables were detected. The molecular mechanism underlying adaptive evolution of high drought, strong UVB, cold hardiness, sugar content, flesh color, and bloom date were revealed. Finally, based on 30 yr of observation, a candidate gene associated with bloom date advance, representing peach responses to global warming, was identified. Collectively, our study provides insights into molecular bases of how environments have shaped peach genomes by natural selection and adds candidate genes for future studies on evolutionary genetics, adaptation to climate changes, and breeding.}, }
@article {pmid33686321, year = {2021}, author = {Pamukcu-Albers, P and Ugolini, F and La Rosa, D and Grădinaru, SR and Azevedo, JC and Wu, J}, title = {Building green infrastructure to enhance urban resilience to climate change and pandemics.}, journal = {Landscape ecology}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {665-673}, pmid = {33686321}, issn = {0921-2973}, }
@article {pmid33686076, year = {2021}, author = {Stenzel, F and Greve, P and Lucht, W and Tramberend, S and Wada, Y and Gerten, D}, title = {Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1512}, pmid = {33686076}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Biomass ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Dehydration ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Plants ; Water ; }, abstract = {Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered an important negative emissions (NEs) technology, but might involve substantial irrigation on biomass plantations. Potential water stress resulting from the additional withdrawals warrants evaluation against the avoided climate change impact. Here we quantitatively assess potential side effects of BECCS with respect to water stress by disentangling the associated drivers (irrigated biomass plantations, climate, land use patterns) using comprehensive global model simulations. By considering a widespread use of irrigated biomass plantations, global warming by the end of the 21st century could be limited to 1.5 °C compared to a climate change scenario with 3 °C. However, our results suggest that both the global area and population living under severe water stress in the BECCS scenario would double compared to today and even exceed the impact of climate change. Such side effects of achieving substantial NEs would come as an extra pressure in an already water-stressed world and could only be avoided if sustainable water management were implemented globally.}, }
@article {pmid33685297, year = {2022}, author = {Trájer, AJ}, title = {The alteration of the suitability patterns of Leishmania infantum due to climate change in Iran.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {32}, number = {7}, pages = {1567-1580}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2021.1897535}, pmid = {33685297}, issn = {1369-1619}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; Humans ; Iran/epidemiology ; *Leishmania infantum ; *Leishmaniasis, Visceral/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Leishmaniasis is the most important parasitic infection in Iran. The aim of this study was to model the changing suitability patterns of Leishmania infantum, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis for the 21[st] century in the country. Temperature, precipitation, and aridity-nature distribution limiting bioclimatic variables were involved in the ecological modelling. The altitudinal trends were considered by using 100 m bars. In Iran, the topographical patterns strongly impact the changing patterns of the suitability of L. infantum due to climate change. In general, climate change will decrease the parasite's suitability in the areas at low altitudes and increase in the middle and higher elevation regions. Increasing values are mainly predicted in the West, the decreasing suitability values in the East part of Iran. The altitudinal shifts and the reduced spatial distribution of L. infantum in the arid regions of East and Central Iran were modelled.}, }
@article {pmid33684753, year = {2021}, author = {Guerra-Coss, FA and Badano, EI and Cedillo-Rodríguez, IE and Ramírez-Albores, JE and Flores, J and Barragán-Torres, F and Flores-Cano, JA}, title = {Modelling and validation of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants on climate change scenarios: An approach from the regeneration niche.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {777}, number = {}, pages = {146007}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146007}, pmid = {33684753}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Entropy ; Introduced Species ; Mexico ; }, abstract = {The regeneration niche concept states that plant species only occur in habitats where the environmental conditions allow their recruitment. This study focuses on this concept and proposes a novel approach for modelling and experimentally validating the distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants under the current and future climate. The biological invasion of the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle) in Mexico is used as practical example. The values of eight bioclimatic variables associated to sites in which young, naturally established seedlings and saplings were detected were used to model the current distribution of recruitment habitats. A machine-learning algorithm of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to calibrate the model and its output indicated the distribution of occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees in Mexico under the current climate. This model was projected on climate change scenarios predicted for the middle of this century, which indicated that the cover of suitable recruitment habitats for this invasive species will shrink. To validate these predictions, field experiments were performed at three sites where the model predicted reduced occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees. In these experiments, emergence and survival rates of peppertree seedlings were assessed under the current climate and under simulated climate change conditions. As seedling emergence and survival rates were lower under simulated climate change conditions, the experiments validated the model predictions. These results supported our proposal, which combines modelling and experimental approaches to make accurate and valid predictions about the distribution of suitable recruitment habitats for invasive plants in a warmer and drier world.}, }
@article {pmid33684412, year = {2021}, author = {Wright, CY and Kapwata, T and du Preez, DJ and Wernecke, B and Garland, RM and Nkosi, V and Landman, WA and Dyson, L and Norval, M}, title = {Major climate change-induced risks to human health in South Africa.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {196}, number = {}, pages = {110973}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.110973}, pmid = {33684412}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; South Africa/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {There are many climatic changes facing South Africa which already have, or are projected to have, a detrimental impact on human health. Here the risks to health due to several alterations in the climate of South Africa are considered in turn. These include an increase in ambient temperature, causing, for example, a significant rise in morbidity and mortality; heavy rainfall leading to changes in the prevalence and occurrence of vector-borne diseases; drought-associated malnutrition; and exposure to dust storms and air pollution leading to the potential exacerbation of respiratory diseases. Existing initiatives and strategies to prevent or reduce these adverse health impacts are outlined, together with suggestions of what might be required in the future to safeguard the health of the nation. Potential roles for the health and non-health sectors as well as preparedness and capacity development with respect to climate change and health adaptation are considered.}, }
@article {pmid33681498, year = {2021}, author = {Naderi Beni, A and Marriner, N and Sharifi, A and Azizpour, J and Kabiri, K and Djamali, M and Kirman, A}, title = {Climate change: A driver of future conflicts in the Persian Gulf Region?.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {e06288}, pmid = {33681498}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Ongoing global change and its direct environmental impacts, in addition to securing economic transition to the post-oil era, could trigger complex socio-economic and political crises in oil-dependent economies of the Persian Gulf Region (PGR). To evaluate the role of climate change and related policies in degrading the environment and its socio-economic impacts in the PGR, we have used a variety of available global datasets and published data. The results show that the countries of the PGR pursue some types of socio-economic reforms to alleviate the impacts of climate change. However, it seems that these attempts are not compatible with the environment's capacity. The main problem stems from the fact that political differences between the PGR nations prevent them from managing the Persian Gulf environment as an integrated natural system and consequently they have to limit their efforts within their borders, regardless of what happens in other parts of the system. The shift to alternative revenue sources by the countries needs socioeconomic preparedness while there are environmental obstacles, political tensions and geopolitical rivalries. Unless there is a cooperative approach to mitigate the effects of climate change, accompanied by a reorientation of PGR economies, the situation is likely to worsen rather than improve. To address the challenges of climate change, integrated regional collaborations are needed. Collective action, such as more investment in regional research and development and education, is required if the PGR is to successfully transition from a commodity-based to a knowledge-based economy.}, }
@article {pmid33680747, year = {2021}, author = {Pathak, A and van Beynen, PE and Akiwumi, FA and Lindeman, KC}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the tourism sector of a Small Island Developing State: A case study for the Bahamas.}, journal = {Environmental development}, volume = {37}, number = {}, pages = {100556}, pmid = {33680747}, issn = {2211-4653}, abstract = {This study examines the direct and indirect impacts of climate change to the tourism sector on the islands of New Providence and adjacent Paradise Island in the Bahamas. The assessment was carried out by conducting a geospatial analysis of tourism establishments at risk using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). We combined the geospatial analysis with publicly available databases to assess the integrated climate-related impacts pertaining to a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) economy. Our study estimated that many tourism properties currently lie in a storm surge zone and the extent of properties at risk increases with a future scenario of a 1 m rise in sea level. While sea level rise (SLR) by itself only threatens a small number of properties, when combined with weak (Category 1), moderate (Category 3) and strong (Category 5) storms the resulting coastal flooding impacts 34%, 69%, and 83% of the tourism infrastructure (hotels and resorts), respectively. In addition to flooding, properties are also susceptible to coastal erosion with 28% of the total hotels and resorts on the two islands being situated within 0-50 m and 60% of the tourism infrastructure within 0-100 m of the coastline. Considering the economic importance of the sector, the potential impacts on the tourism infrastructure will cause significant losses in revenue and employment for the two islands. Furthermore, the majority of the tourism on these islands is beach-based and visitor expenditures will decline due to their vulnerability. These losses will have far-reaching social-economic consequences for the Bahamas. Our findings reveal a need for integrated coastal zone management that incorporates tourism management strategies with adaptation measures to deal with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33677297, year = {2021}, author = {Zheng, X and Guo, K and Luo, H and Pan, X and Hertwich, E and Jin, L and Wang, C}, title = {Individualism and nationally determined contributions to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {777}, number = {}, pages = {146076}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146076}, pmid = {33677297}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Ratcheting up the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve the Paris Agreement goals requires a better understanding of the enablers and barriers behind NDC formulation. However, existing quantitative analyses on the drivers of NDCs from an anthropological perspective are elusive. This study proposes both a conceptual framework and empirical analysis of how cultural values link with the pledged NDCs. The findings show that individualism (IDV) is a significant and robust predictor for the mitigation levels of NDCs, after controlling for affluence level, renewable energy proportion, democracy and other socioeconomic factors. For every 10-point increase in the IDV score (say from the score of Canada to Australia or from the score of Vietnam to Mexico), the committed per-capita emission in 2030 relative to 1990 levels decrease by 14%-22%. However, such a correlation is absent when assessing the mitigation ambitions using various fair benchmarks. This study underscores the necessity of considering more cultural context and nuances in tackling common climate problems, and advocates for developing tailored climate communication strategies to enhance the NDCs.}, }
@article {pmid33676217, year = {2021}, author = {Maynou, F and Costa, S and Freitas, R and Solé, M}, title = {Effects of triclosan exposure on the energy budget of Ruditapes philippinarum and R. decussatus under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {777}, number = {}, pages = {146068}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146068}, pmid = {33676217}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; Climate Change ; Seafood ; Shellfish ; *Triclosan/toxicity ; }, abstract = {We built a simulation model based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEB) to assess the growth and reproductive potential of the native European clam Ruditapes decussatus and the introduced Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum under current temperature and pH conditions in a Portuguese estuary and under those forecasted for the end of the 21st c. The climate change scenario RCP8.5 predicts temperature increase of 3 °C and a pH decrease of 0.4 units. The model was run under additional conditions of exposure to the emerging contaminant triclosan (TCS) and in the absence of this compound. The parameters of the DEB model were calibrated with the results of laboratory experiments complemented with data from the literature available for these two important commercial shellfish resources. For each species and experimental condition (eight combinations), we used data from the experiments to produce estimates for the key parameters controlling food intake flux, assimilation flux, somatic maintenance flux and energy at the initial simulation time. The results showed that the growth and reproductive potential of both species would be compromised under future climate conditions, but the effect of TCS exposure had a higher impact on the energy budget than forecasted temperature and pH variations. The egg production of R. philippinarum was projected to suffer a more marked reduction with exposure to TCS, regardless of the climatic factor, while the native R. decussatus appeared more resilient to environmental causes of stress. The results suggest a likely decrease in the rates of expansion of the introduced R. philippinarum in European waters, and negative effects on fisheries and aquaculture production of exposure to emerging contaminants (e.g., TCS) and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33675435, year = {2021}, author = {Baruah, P and Handique, G}, title = {Perception of climate change and adaptation strategies in tea plantations of Assam, India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {193}, number = {4}, pages = {165}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-021-08937-y}, pmid = {33675435}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; India ; Perception ; Tea ; }, abstract = {There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect tea cultivation. It will be one of the challenging issues, particularly for the tea plantations of Assam, India. Based on a questionnaire survey carried out in four major tea-growing regions of Assam, viz., Upper Assam, South Bank, North Bank and Cachar, the study analyses tea growers' awareness of climate change, its impact on tea, adaptive approaches undertaken and future strategies. Majority of respondents were aware of climate change and its effect on tea production. Tea growers attributed prolong drought, excessive precipitation within a short period, temperature extremes, increase in insect and disease infestation, the emergence of new insect pest species, increased weed infestation and wind velocity as underlying effects of climate change. Results also specified that tea growers had a positive approach towards adaptive management strategies to mitigate climate change. Adaptive measures executed to combat climate change included rainwater harvesting, irrigation, afforestation, biodiversity conservation, soil mulching and creation of wind barriers. As future management strategies, tea growers have opted to gradually replace synthetic fertilisers with organic manures and pesticides, construct anti-erosion measures along riversides and embankments, generate awareness programs among the workers and other residents on conserving biodiversity, generate clean energy for tea production and cultivate climate tolerant/resistant cultivars. The present study will be helpful to make more informed future strategies regarding best practices for tea cultivation under a changing climate for tea-growing regions all over the world.}, }
@article {pmid33674931, year = {2021}, author = {Foster, J and Smallcombe, JW and Hodder, S and Jay, O and Flouris, AD and Nybo, L and Havenith, G}, title = {An advanced empirical model for quantifying the impact of heat and climate change on human physical work capacity.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {65}, number = {7}, pages = {1215-1229}, pmid = {33674931}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {668786//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Heat Stress Disorders ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Humidity ; *Occupational Exposure ; }, abstract = {Occupational heat stress directly hampers physical work capacity (PWC), with large economic consequences for industries and regions vulnerable to global warming. Accurately quantifying PWC is essential for forecasting impacts of different climate change scenarios, but the current state of knowledge is limited, leading to potential underestimations in mild heat, and overestimations in extreme heat. We therefore developed advanced empirical equations for PWC based on 338 work sessions in climatic chambers (low air movement, no solar radiation) spanning mild to extreme heat stress. Equations for PWC are available based on air temperature and humidity, for a suite of heat stress assessment metrics, and mean skin temperature. Our models are highly sensitive to mild heat and to our knowledge are the first to include empirical data across the full range of warm and hot environments possible with future climate change across the world. Using wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as an example, we noted 10% reductions in PWC at mild heat stress (WBGT = 18°C) and reductions of 78% in the most extreme conditions (WBGT = 40°C). Of the different heat stress indices available, the heat index was the best predictor of group level PWC (R[2] = 0.96) but can only be applied in shaded conditions. The skin temperature, but not internal/core temperature, was a strong predictor of PWC (R[2] = 0.88), thermal sensation (R[2] = 0.84), and thermal comfort (R[2] = 0.73). The models presented apply to occupational workloads and can be used in climate projection models to predict economic and social consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33672845, year = {2021}, author = {Bravo-Cadena, J and Pavón, NP and Balvanera, P and Sánchez-Rojas, G and Razo-Zarate, R}, title = {Water Availability-Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {33672845}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Mexico ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change scenarios show that water availability could be decreasing in the near future, adding to the increasing problem of the growing water demands in socioeconomic sectors. The aim of this work was to generate a geographically explicit water balance concerning availability vs. demand in an overpopulated region of Mexico. Water balance and water deficit models were made for three periods of time: 1970-2000, and two future periods of time (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). Three global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.6 and RCP 8.5). Water demand for socioeconomic sectors was calculated through the water footprint. Water availability was 197,644.58 hm[3]/year, while that the water demand was 59,187 hm[3]/year. The socioeconomic sectors with the highest demand were domestic services (48%), agriculture (27%), livestock agriculture (20%), and timber production (5%). The highest water availability areas were not the same as those with the highest demand and vice versa. However, 39% of municipalities had a higher water demand than its availability. A significant reduction in water availability was identified, considering an interval of -15% to 40%. This variation depends on climate models, scenarios, and period of time. Areas with overpopulated cities in the region would have higher pressure on water availability. These results could be used in the implementation of public policies by focusing on adaptation strategies to reduce water deficit in the immediate future.}, }
@article {pmid33671912, year = {2021}, author = {Nishiura, H and Mimura, N}, title = {Research Agenda of Climate Change during and after the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic.}, journal = {Journal of clinical medicine}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {33671912}, issn = {2077-0383}, support = {JPMEERF20S11804//Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency/ ; 19HA1003, 20CA2024, and 20HA2007//Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare/ ; JP19fk0108104 and JP20fk0108140//Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development/ ; 17H04701//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/ ; JPMJCR1413//Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology/ ; }, abstract = {The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spread worldwide during the first few months of 2020 [...].}, }
@article {pmid33671205, year = {2021}, author = {Miner, KR and Mayewski, PA and Hubbard, M and Broad, K and Clifford, H and Napper, I and Gajurel, A and Jaskolski, C and Li, W and Potocki, M and Priscu, J}, title = {A Perspective of the Cumulative Risks from Climate Change on Mt. Everest: Findings from the 2019 Expedition.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {33671205}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Altitude ; Climate Change ; *Expeditions ; Humans ; Ice Cover ; *Mountaineering ; }, abstract = {In 2019, the National Geographic and Rolex Perpetual Planet Everest expedition successfully retrieved the greatest diversity of scientific data ever from the mountain. The confluence of geologic, hydrologic, chemical and microbial hazards emergent as climate change increases glacier melt is significant. We review the findings of increased opportunity for landslides, water pollution, human waste contamination and earthquake events. Further monitoring and policy are needed to ensure the safety of residents, future climbers, and trekkers in the Mt. Everest watershed.}, }
@article {pmid33670998, year = {2021}, author = {Ruheili, AMA and Boluwade, A and Subhi, AMA}, title = {Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Lime (16srii-B) and Alfalfa (16srii-D) Phytoplasma Disease Using MaxEnt.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {33670998}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Witches' broom disease has led to major losses in lime and alfalfa production in Oman. This paper identifies bioclimatic variables that contribute to the prediction of distribution of witches' broom disease in current and future climatic scenarios. It also explores the expansion, reduction, or shift in the climatic niche of the distribution of the disease across the different geographical areas of the entire country (309,501 km[2]). The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and geographical information system were used to investigate the potential suitability of habitats for the phytoplasma disease. This study used current (1970-2000) and future projected climatic scenarios (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to model the distribution of phytoplasma for lime trees and alfalfa in Oman. Bioclimatic variables were downloaded from WorldClim with ± 60 occurrence points for lime trees and alfalfa. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the model's performance. Quantitatively, the results showed that the mean of the AUC values for lime (16SrII-B) and alfalfa (16SrII-D) future distribution for the periods of 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100 were rated as "excellent", with the values for the specified time periods being 0.859, 0.900, 0.931, and 0.913 for 16SrII-B; and 0.826, 0.837, 08.58, and 0.894 for 16SrII-D respectively. In addition, this study identified the hotspots and proportions of the areas that are vulnerable under the projected climate-change scenarios. The area of current (2021-2040) highly suitable distribution within the entire country for 16SrII-D was 19474.2 km[2] (7.1%), while for 16SrII-B, an area of 8835 km[2] (3.2%) was also highly suitable for the disease distribution. The proportions of these suitable areas are very significant from the available arable land standpoint. Therefore, the results from this study will be of immense benefit and will also bring significant contributions in mapping the areas of witches' broom diseases in Oman. The results will equally aid the development of new strategies and the formulation of agricultural policies and practices in controlling the spread of the disease across Oman.}, }
@article {pmid33667772, year = {2021}, author = {Lu, J and Lu, H and Brusseau, ML and He, L and Gorlier, A and Yao, T and Tian, P and Feng, S and Yu, Q and Nie, Q and Yang, Y and Yin, C and Tang, M and Feng, W and Xue, Y and Yin, F}, title = {Interaction of climate change, potentially toxic elements (PTEs), and topography on plant diversity and ecosystem functions in a high-altitude mountainous region of the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {275}, number = {}, pages = {130099}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.130099}, pmid = {33667772}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Altitude ; Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Potentially toxic elements (PTEs) generated from mining activities have affected ecological diversity and ecosystem functions around the world. Accurately assessing the long-term effects of PTEs is critical to classifying recoverable areas and proposing management strategies. Mining activities that shape geographical patterns of biodiversity in individual regions are increasingly understood, but the complex interactions on broad scales and in changing environments are still unclear. In this study, we developed a series of empirical models that simulate the changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions in mine-affected regions along elevation gradients (1500-3600 m a.s.l) in the metal-rich Qilian Mountains (∼800 km) on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (China). Our results confirmed the crucial role of PTEs dispersal, topography, and climatic heterogeneity in the diversification of plant community composition. On average, 54% of the changes in ecosystem functions were explained by the interactions among topography, climate, and PTEs. However, merely 30% of the changes were correlated with a single driver. The changes in species composition (explained variables = 94.8%) in the PTE-polluted habitats located in the warm and humid low-elevation deserts and grasslands were greater than those occurring in the dry alpine deserts and grasslands. The ecosystem functions (soil characteristics, nutrient migration, and plant biomass) experienced greater changes in the humid low-elevation grasslands and alpine deserts. Our results suggest that the processes driven by climate or other factors can result in high-altitude PTE-affected habitat facing greater threats.}, }
@article {pmid33665418, year = {2021}, author = {Adeagbo, OA and Ojo, TO and Adetoro, AA}, title = {Understanding the determinants of climate change adaptation strategies among smallholder maize farmers in South-west, Nigeria.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {e06231}, pmid = {33665418}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate is one of the most important factors in agricultural productivity, which could directly or indirectly influence productivity since the climate is linked to physiological processes. It is, therefore, essential to understanding the various strategies used by farmers to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change and the factors that influence maize farmers' adoption and intensity of climate change adaptation strategies among smallholder maize farmers in South-west Nigeria. In all, a sample of three hundred and thirty (311) smallholder maize farmers were interviewed. A double-hurdle count data model was employed to estimate the factors influencing farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies while accounting for selection bias with the plugging of inverse mill ratio (IMR) as a regressor. Significant variables such as household size, depreciation ratio, frequency of extension visits, access to extension, and non-farm income were factors influencing the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies among maize farmers. Age of the respondent, age square, household size, farm-based organization (FBO), non-farm income, climate information, access to credit, farmers residing in Osun State (location_Osun), distance to market significantly influenced the intensity of climate change adaptation strategies. This study, therefore, concluded that farm-level policy efforts that aim to improve rural development should focus on farmers' membership in FBO, increase the visits of extension agents, encourage non-farm income and access to climate change information, particularly during the off-cropping season. Policies and investment strategies of the government should be geared towards supporting improved extension service, providing on-farm demonstration training, and disseminating information about climate change adaptation strategies, particularly for smallholder farmers in Nigeria.}, }
@article {pmid33664441, year = {2020}, author = {Graham, F}, title = {Daily briefing: Climate change made Australian fires at least 30% more likely.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00665-6}, pmid = {33664441}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid33661834, year = {2021}, author = {Roberts, LW}, title = {Climate Change, Human Health, and Academic Medicine.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {96}, number = {3}, pages = {315-316}, doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000003900}, pmid = {33661834}, issn = {1938-808X}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*analysis ; Awareness ; Carbon Dioxide/*adverse effects ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Humans ; Journalism, Medical/standards ; Peer Review, Health Care ; }, }
@article {pmid33660878, year = {2021}, author = {Zylstra, ER and Zipkin, EF}, title = {Accounting for sources of uncertainty when forecasting population responses to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {3}, pages = {558-561}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13443}, pmid = {33660878}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Population Dynamics ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {In Focus: Jaatinen, K., Westerbom, M., Norkko, A., Mustonen, O., &amp; Koons, D. N. (2021). Detrimental impacts of climate change may be exacerbated by density-dependent population regulation in blue mussels. Journal of Animal Ecology, 90, 562-573, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13377. Conservation strategies for threatened species are increasingly dependent on forecasts of population responses to climate change. For such forecasts to be accurate, they must account for multiple sources of uncertainty, including those associated with projections of future climate scenarios and those associated with the models used to describe population dynamics. While many population forecasts incorporate parameter uncertainty in abiotic effects and process variance related to unexplained temporal variation, most forecasts overlook the importance of evaluating uncertainty in the structure of the population model itself. By accounting for structural uncertainties in a model of population growth for blue mussels, Jaatinen et al. (2021) demonstrated that density-dependent processes are likely to exacerbate adverse effects of climate change and reduce population viability of this keystone species. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating structural unknowns in population forecasts and the value of approaches that account for multiple sources of climate and model uncertainties. Forecasts that capture a range of possible population trajectories under climate change will help ensure efficient allocation of limited conservation resources.}, }
@article {pmid33660177, year = {2021}, author = {Khan, U and Zhang, Y}, title = {RETRACTED ARTICLE: The global inequalities and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {16}, pages = {19543}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-12333-3}, pmid = {33660177}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid33659529, year = {2020}, author = {Leonard, LT and Wilmer, C and Steltzer, H and Williams, KH and Sharp, JO}, title = {Accelerated Snowmelt Protocol to Simulate Climate Change Induced Impacts on Snowpack Dependent Ecosystems.}, journal = {Bio-protocol}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e3557}, pmid = {33659529}, issn = {2331-8325}, abstract = {Field studies that simulate the effects of climate change are important for a predictive understanding of ecosystem responses to a changing environment. Among many concerns, regional warming can result in advanced timing of spring snowmelt in snowpack dependent ecosystems, which could lead to longer snow-free periods and drier summer soils. Past studies investigating these impacts of climate change have manipulated snowmelt with a variety of techniques that include manual snowpack alteration with a shovel, infrared radiation, black sand and fabric covers. Within these studies however, sufficient documentation of methods is limited, which can make experimental reproduction difficult. Here, we outline a detailed plot-scale protocol that utilizes a permeable black geotextile fabric deployed on top of an isothermal spring snowpack to induce advanced snowmelt. The method offers a reliable and cost-effective approach to induce snowmelt by passively increasing solar radiation absorption at the snow surface. In addition, control configurations with no snowpack manipulation are paired adjacent to the induced snowmelt plot for experimental comparison. Past and ongoing deployments in Colorado subalpine ecosystems indicate that this approach can accelerate snowmelt by 14-23 days, effectively mimicking snowmelt timing at lower elevations. This protocol can be applied to a variety of studies to understand the hydrological, ecological, and geochemical impacts of regional warming in snowpack dependent ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid33657137, year = {2021}, author = {Louthan, AM and Morris, W}, title = {Climate change impacts on population growth across a species' range differ due to nonlinear responses of populations to climate and variation in rates of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {e0247290}, pmid = {33657137}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Alaska ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; Primulaceae/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Impacts of climate change can differ substantially across species' geographic ranges, and impacts on a given population can be difficult to predict accurately. A commonly used approximation for the impacts of climate change on the population growth rate is the product of local changes in each climate variable (which may differ among populations) and the sensitivity (the derivative of the population growth rate with respect to that climate variable), summed across climate variables. However, this approximation may not be accurate for predicting changes in population growth rate across geographic ranges, because the sensitivities to climate variables or the rate of climate change may differ among populations. In addition, while this approximation assumes a linear response of population growth rate to climate, population growth rate is typically a nonlinear function of climate variables. Here, we use climate-driven integral projection models combined with projections of future climate to predict changes in population growth rate from 2008 to 2099 for an uncommon alpine plant species, Douglasia alaskana, in a rapidly warming location, southcentral Alaska USA. We dissect the causes of among-population variation in climate change impacts, including magnitude of climate change in each population and nonlinearities in population response to climate change. We show that much of the variation in climate change impacts across D. alaskana's range arises from nonlinearities in population response to climate. Our results highlight the critical role of nonlinear responses to climate change impacts, suggesting that current responses to increases in temperature or changes in precipitation may not continue indefinitely under continued changes in climate. Further, our results suggest the degree of nonlinearity in climate responses and the shape of responses (e.g., convex or concave) can differ substantially across populations, such that populations may differ dramatically in responses to future climate even when their current responses are quite similar.}, }
@article {pmid33656253, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, CJ and Wang, R and Yu, CM and Dang, XP and Sun, WG and Li, QF and Wang, XT and Wan, JZ}, title = {Risk assessment of insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under climate change.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {77}, number = {7}, pages = {3165-3178}, doi = {10.1002/ps.6354}, pmid = {33656253}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {31800449//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 31800464//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Insecta ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Growth in insect pest populations poses a significant threat to ecosystem functions and services, societal development, and food security in alpine regions under climate change. Risk assessments are important prioritization tools for pest management, which must be used to study insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under global warming. We used species distribution modeling to simulate the current and future distribution probabilities of 58 insect pest species in the Qinghai Province, China, based on a comprehensive field investigation. Subsequently, general linear modeling was used to explore the relationship between the distribution probability of these species and the damage caused by them. Finally, we assessed the ecological risk of insect pest expansion across different alpine ecosystems under climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change could increase the distribution probabilities of insect pest species across different alpine ecosystems. However, the presence of insect pest species may not correspond to the damage occurrence in alpine ecosystems based on percent leaf loss, amount of stunting, and seedling death of their host species. Significant positive relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence were found for several of the examined insect pest species. Insect pest expansion is likely to increase extensively in alpine ecosystems under increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emission scenarios.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence should be considered in species distribution modeling for risk assessment of insect pest expansion under climate change. Our study could improve the effectiveness of risk assessment of insect pest expansion under changing climate conditions. &#xa9; 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid33655479, year = {2021}, author = {Kong, F and Tang, L and He, H and Yang, F and Tao, J and Wang, W}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on the distribution of Osmanthus fragrans using Maxent.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {26}, pages = {34655-34663}, pmid = {33655479}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {[2018]TG08//the Forestry Science and Technology Promotion and Demonstration Fund of Central Finance/ ; JATS[2019]448//the Construction of Jiangsu Modern Agricultural Industry Technology System/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Oleaceae ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {Models that evaluate the potential geographic distribution of species can be used with a variety of important applications in conservation biology. Osmanthus fragrans has high ornamental, culinary, and medicinal value, and is widely used in landscaping. However, its preferred habitat and the environmental factors that determine its distribution remain largely unknown; the environmental factors that shape its suitability also require analysis. Based on 89 occurrence records and 30 environmental variables, this study constructed Maxent models for current as well as future appropriate habitats for O. fragrans. The results indicate that UV-B seasonality (19.1%), precipitation seasonality (18.8%), annual temperature range (13.1%), and mean diurnal temperature range (12.5%) were the most important factors used for interpreting the environmental demands for this species. Highly appropriate habitats for O. fragrans were mainly distributed in southwestern Jiangsu, southern Anhui, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, northern Guangdong, Guangxi, southern Hunan, southern Hubei, Sichuan, and Taiwan. Under climate change scenarios, the spatial extent of the area of suitable distribution will decrease, and the distribution center of O. fragrans will shift to the southwest. The results of this study will help land managers to avoid blindly introducing this species into inappropriate habitat while improving O. fragrans yield and quality.}, }
@article {pmid33653138, year = {2021}, author = {Sullivan, CN and Koski, MH}, title = {The effects of climate change on floral anthocyanin polymorphisms.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {288}, number = {1946}, pages = {20202693}, pmid = {33653138}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthocyanins ; *Climate Change ; Flowers ; Pigmentation ; Pollination ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Pigmentation affords resistance to abiotic stressors, and thus can respond adaptively or plastically to drought and extreme temperatures associated with global change. Plants frequently display variability in flower coloration that is underlain by anthocyanin pigmentation. While anthocyanin polymorphisms impact plant-animal interactions, they also impact reproductive performance under abiotic stress. We used descriptions of flower colour from over 1900 herbarium records representing 12 North American species spanning 124 years to test whether anthocyanin-based flower colour has responded to global change. Based on demonstrated abiotic associations with performance of anthocyanin colour morphs, we predicted pigmentation would increase in species experiencing increased aridity, but decline in those experiencing larger increases in temperature. We found that the frequency of reports of pigmented morphs increased temporally in some taxa but displayed subtle declines in others. Pigmentation was negatively associated with temperature and positively associated with vapour pressure deficit (a metric of aridity) across taxa. Species experiencing larger temperature increases over time displayed reductions in pigmentation, while those experiencing increases in aridity displayed increases in pigmentation. Change in anthocyanin-based floral colour was thus linked with climatic change. Altered flower coloration has the strong potential to impact plant-animal interactions and overall plant reproductive performance.}, }
@article {pmid33651772, year = {2021}, author = {MacMillan, A}, title = {The Climate Change Act will now shape the nation's health: an assessment of the first policy recommendations to reach our zero carbon target.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {134}, number = {1530}, pages = {8-11}, pmid = {33651772}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint/*standards ; *Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; New Zealand ; }, }
@article {pmid33650350, year = {2021}, author = {Li, H and Hong, Y and Deng, GR and Wu, RH and Zhang, HY and Zhao, JJ and Guo, XY}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human activities on net primary productivity of grasslands in Inner Mongolia, China during 1982-2015.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {2}, pages = {415-424}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202102.002}, pmid = {33650350}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Grassland ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {We analyzed the impacts of climate change and human activities on the net primary productivity of grasslands in Inner Mongolia during 1982-2015. The results showed that the growth rates of actual net primary productivity (ANPP) were 1.08 and 1.36 g C · m[-2] · a[-1] in 1982-1998 and 1999-2015, respectively. Such changes were largely due to restoration, with restoration implementing in 81.6% and 76.3% of the total study area in 1982-1998 and 1999-2015, respectively. The area of degraded grasslands tends to increase. The effects of climate change and human activity varied across different types of grassland. Climate change was the main contributor to grassland restoration over the two periods, with the contribution rates being 79.3% and 94.1%, respectively. The ANPP was positively correlated with precipitation but not with temperature, indicating that precipitation was the main climate factor influencing grassland restoration. Human activities contributed most to grassland degradation over the two periods, with the contribute rate being 83.3% and 87.8%, respectively. Our results suggested that the climate change was the dominant contributor to grassland restoration, while human activities, such as increase in livestock numbers, cultivation and afforestation, accelerated grassland degradation.}, }
@article {pmid33650070, year = {2021}, author = {Chen, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on sensitive marine and extreme terrestrial ecosystems: Recent progresses and future challenges : This article belongs to Ambio's 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Climate change impact.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {6}, pages = {1141-1144}, pmid = {33650070}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {2019-03954//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det/ ; }, mesh = {Anniversaries and Special Events ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest global threat to ecosystems on the Earth. Previous studies assessed the impacts of climate change on sensitive tropical coral reefs, extreme environments in European Alps and the Arctic with a focus on snow and permafrost. This article reflects on the past developments and future challenges for scientific research and policy response relating to these topics from a peer's perspective. This leads to the identification of several warning signs for potentially dangerous developments in these sensitive system and extreme environments as well as opportunities for research and policy in the future. While urgent actions are required to limit global warming, science-based policy can provide needed guidance.}, }
@article {pmid33650069, year = {2021}, author = {Bjorkman, AD and Wulff, A}, title = {A reflection on four impactful Ambio papers: The biotic perspective : This article belongs to Ambio's 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Climate change impacts.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {6}, pages = {1145-1149}, pmid = {33650069}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Climate change represents one of the most pressing societal and scientific challenges of our time. While much of the current research on climate change focuses on future prediction, some of the strongest signals of warming can already be seen in Arctic and alpine areas, where temperatures are rising faster than the global average, and in the oceans, where the combination of rising temperatures and acidification due to increased CO2 concentrations has had catastrophic consequences for sensitive marine organisms inhabiting coral reefs. The scientific papers highlighted as part of this anniversary issue represent some of the most impactful advances in our understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we reflect on the legacy of these papers from the biotic perspective.}, }
@article {pmid33650068, year = {2021}, author = {Wulff, A}, title = {At the frontier of climate change: Red alert from the European Alps, the Arctic and coral reefs : This article belongs to Ambio's 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Climate change impacts.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {6}, pages = {1123-1129}, pmid = {33650068}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Animals ; Anniversaries and Special Events ; *Anthozoa ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Environmental Monitoring ; }, }
@article {pmid33650067, year = {2021}, author = {Haeberli, W and Beniston, M}, title = {Icy mountains in a warming world: Revisiting science from the end of the 1990s in the early 2020s : This article belongs to Ambio's 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Climate change impacts.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {6}, pages = {1130-1132}, pmid = {33650067}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Anniversaries and Special Events ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; }, }
@article {pmid33650066, year = {2021}, author = {Goreau, TJF and Hayes, RL}, title = {Global warming triggers coral reef bleaching tipping point : This article belongs to Ambio's 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Climate change impacts.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {6}, pages = {1137-1140}, pmid = {33650066}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Animals ; Anniversaries and Special Events ; *Anthozoa ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Environmental Monitoring ; Global Warming ; }, }
@article {pmid33650065, year = {2021}, author = {Callaghan, TV and Johansson, M}, title = {The rise of the Arctic: Intergenerational personal perspectives : This article belongs to Ambio's 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Climate change impacts.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {6}, pages = {1133-1136}, pmid = {33650065}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Anniversaries and Special Events ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; }, }
@article {pmid33650057, year = {2021}, author = {Ergun, SJ and Khan, MU and Rivas, MF}, title = {Factors affecting climate change concern in Pakistan: are there rural/urban differences?.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {26}, pages = {34553-34569}, pmid = {33650057}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Pakistan ; *Rural Population ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Urban Population ; }, abstract = {There is a growing interest in studying the determinants of climate change concern, but there are few studies conducted on developing countries like Pakistan. This study has three objectives. Firstly, to find whether there are differences in climate change concern levels between Pakistani citizens residing in rural and urban areas. Secondly, whether climate change concern is influenced by the same or different factors in rural and urban areas. Finally, whether the religious denomination one adheres to plays a role. The 2015 database provided by Pew Research Center, a representative sample of the Pakistani population, is used, and ordered logit models are run by including the independent variables in steps. The main finding is that the place of residency matters: rural residents show higher levels of concern than their urban counterparts. Climate change concern is influenced in both areas of residence by the gender of the respondent: females are more concerned than males. Nonetheless, there are differences in other determinants of climate change concern in rural and urban areas, for example, the education level, which affects mainly rural citizens. The religious denomination affects the concern of rural residents: Sunni Muslims show higher levels of climate change concern than Shi'a Muslims. Recommendations include the implementation of policies aiming to increase the education level in rural areas and the incorporation of courses and curricular or extra-curricular activities that would promote more concern among high school students.}, }
@article {pmid33649906, year = {2021}, author = {Milner, J and Davies, M and Haines, A and Huxley, R and Michie, S and Robertson, L and Siri, J and Wilkinson, P}, title = {Emerging from COVID-19: Lessons for Action on Climate Change and Health in Cities.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {98}, number = {3}, pages = {433-437}, pmid = {33649906}, issn = {1468-2869}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 209387/Z/17/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Public Health ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, }
@article {pmid33649482, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, Y and Liu, LY and Liu, Y and Zhang, M and An, CB}, title = {Response of altitudinal vegetation belts of the Tianshan Mountains in northwestern China to climate change during 1989-2015.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {4870}, pmid = {33649482}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Within the mountain altitudinal vegetation belts, the shift of forest tree lines and subalpine steppe belts to high altitudes constitutes an obvious response to global climate change. However, whether or not similar changes occur in steppe belts (low altitude) and nival belts in different areas within mountain systems remain undetermined. It is also unknown if these, responses to climate change are consistent. Here, using Landsat remote sensing images from 1989 to 2015, we obtained the spatial distribution of altitudinal vegetation belts in different periods of the Tianshan Mountains in Northwestern China. We suggest that the responses from different altitudinal vegetation belts to global climate change are different. The changes in the vegetation belts at low altitudes are spatially different. In high-altitude regions (higher than the forest belts), however, the trend of different altitudinal belts is consistent. Specifically, we focused on analyses of the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on the nival belts, desert steppe belts, and montane steppe belts. The results demonstrated that the temperature in the study area exhibited an increasing trend, and is the main factor of altitudinal vegetation belts change in the Tianshan Mountains. In the context of a significant increase in temperature, the upper limit of the montane steppe in the eastern and central parts will shift to lower altitudes, which may limit the development of local animal husbandry. The montane steppe in the west, however, exhibits the opposite trend, which may augment the carrying capacity of pastures and promote the development of local animal husbandry. The lower limit of the nival belt will further increase in all studied areas, which may lead to an increase in surface runoff in the central and western regions.}, }
@article {pmid33648761, year = {2021}, author = {Charlier, J and Morgan, ER and Kyriazakis, I}, title = {Quantifying the Interrelationship between Livestock Infections and Climate Change: Response to Ezenwa et al.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {36}, number = {7}, pages = {576-577}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2021.02.003}, pmid = {33648761}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Livestock ; }, }
@article {pmid33646545, year = {2021}, author = {Ben Nasr, J and Chaar, H and Bouchiba, F and Zaibet, L}, title = {Assessing and building climate change resilience of farming systems in Tunisian semi-arid areas.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {34}, pages = {46797-46808}, pmid = {33646545}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Farms ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The agricultural sector plays a strategic role in the Tunisian economy, particularly in rural areas. Resilience and adaptation to climate change are the main challenges facing this sector. This paper aims to analyze climate change resilience of agricultural production systems in Tunisian semi-arid areas and to propose options for policy interventions. A path Structural Equation Model (SEM) was used to predict the resilience of these systems using the partial least squares method (PLS). Results show that farming systems in Tunisian semi-arid areas remain threatened against negative impact of climate change since 80% of farms in the sample have shown low resilience levels. The most important determinants of agricultural systems' resilience are farmers' income and access to food, adaptive capacity, and access to productive and non-productive assets. Results indicate also that integrated systems, income diversification, along with cooperation and collective action are the key options to enhance resilience of rural households and farming systems. It is recommended to raise awareness of stakeholders and decision-makers about climate change challenges and to develop integrated approaches to better engaging with local stakeholders and institutions in adaptation programs and strategies development.}, }
@article {pmid33644695, year = {2021}, author = {Lynch, J and Cain, M and Frame, D and Pierrehumbert, R}, title = {Agriculture's Contribution to Climate Change and Role in Mitigation Is Distinct From Predominantly Fossil CO2-Emitting Sectors.}, journal = {Frontiers in sustainable food systems}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {518039}, pmid = {33644695}, issn = {2571-581X}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 205212/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Agriculture is a significant contributor to anthropogenic global warming, and reducing agricultural emissions-largely methane and nitrous oxide-could play a significant role in climate change mitigation. However, there are important differences between carbon dioxide (CO2), which is a stock pollutant, and methane (CH4), which is predominantly a flow pollutant. These dynamics mean that conventional reporting of aggregated CO2-equivalent emission rates is highly ambiguous and does not straightforwardly reflect historical or anticipated contributions to global temperature change. As a result, the roles and responsibilities of different sectors emitting different gases are similarly obscured by the common means of communicating emission reduction scenarios using CO2-equivalence. We argue for a shift in how we report agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and think about their mitigation to better reflect the distinct roles of different greenhouse gases. Policy-makers, stakeholders, and society at large should also be reminded that the role of agriculture in climate mitigation is a much broader topic than climate science alone can inform, including considerations of economic and technical feasibility, preferences for food supply and land-use, and notions of fairness and justice. A more nuanced perspective on the impacts of different emissions could aid these conversations.}, }
@article {pmid33643652, year = {2021}, author = {Burnham, JP}, title = {Climate change and antibiotic resistance: a deadly combination.}, journal = {Therapeutic advances in infectious disease}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {2049936121991374}, pmid = {33643652}, issn = {2049-9361}, abstract = {Climate change is driven primarily by humanity's use of fossil fuels and the resultant greenhouse gases from their combustion. The effects of climate change on human health are myriad and becomingly increasingly severe as the pace of climate change accelerates. One relatively underreported intersection between health and climate change is that of infections, particularly antibiotic-resistant infections. In this perspective review, the aspects of climate change that have already, will, and could possibly impact the proliferation and dissemination of antibiotic resistance are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid33643361, year = {2021}, author = {Gomès, &#xc9; and Maillot, P and Duchêne, &#xc9;}, title = {Molecular Tools for Adapting Viticulture to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {633846}, pmid = {33643361}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Adaptation of viticulture to climate change includes exploration of new geographical areas, new training systems, new management practices, or new varieties, both for rootstocks and scions. Molecular tools can be defined as molecular approaches used to study DNAs, RNAs, and proteins in all living organisms. We present here the current knowledge about molecular tools and their potential usefulness in three aspects of grapevine adaptation to the ongoing climate change. (i) Molecular tools for understanding grapevine response to environmental stresses. A fine description of the regulation of gene expression is a powerful tool to understand the physiological mechanisms set up by the grapevine to respond to abiotic stress such as high temperatures or drought. The current knowledge on gene expression is continuously evolving with increasing evidence of the role of alternative splicing, small RNAs, long non-coding RNAs, DNA methylation, or chromatin activity. (ii) Genetics and genomics of grapevine stress tolerance. The description of the grapevine genome is more and more precise. The genetic variations among genotypes are now revealed with new technologies with the sequencing of very long DNA molecules. High throughput technologies for DNA sequencing also allow now the genetic characterization at the same time of hundreds of genotypes for thousands of points in the genome, which provides unprecedented datasets for genotype-phenotype associations studies. We review the current knowledge on the genetic determinism of traits for the adaptation to climate change. We focus on quantitative trait loci and molecular markers available for developmental stages, tolerance to water stress/water use efficiency, sugar content, acidity, and secondary metabolism of the berries. (iii) Controlling the genome and its expression to allow breeding of better-adapted genotypes. High-density DNA genotyping can be used to select genotypes with specific interesting alleles but genomic selection is also a powerful method able to take into account the genetic information along the whole genome to predict a phenotype. Modern technologies are also able to generate mutations that are possibly interesting for generating new phenotypes but the most promising one is the direct editing of the genome at a precise location.}, }
@article {pmid33643337, year = {2020}, author = {Li, N and Euring, D and Cha, JY and Lin, Z and Lu, M and Huang, LJ and Kim, WY}, title = {Plant Hormone-Mediated Regulation of Heat Tolerance in Response to Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {627969}, pmid = {33643337}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Agriculture is largely dependent on climate and is highly vulnerable to climate change. The global mean surface temperatures are increasing due to global climate change. Temperature beyond the physiological optimum for growth induces heat stress in plants causing detrimental and irreversible damage to plant development, growth, as well as productivity. Plants have evolved adaptive mechanisms in response to heat stress. The classical plant hormones, such as auxin, abscisic acid (ABA), brassinosteroids (BRs), cytokinin (CK), salicylic acid (SA), jasmonate (JA), and ethylene (ET), integrate environmental stimuli and endogenous signals to regulate plant defensive response to various abiotic stresses, including heat. Exogenous applications of those hormones prior or parallel to heat stress render plants more thermotolerant. In this review, we summarized the recent progress and current understanding of the roles of those phytohormones in defending plants against heat stress and the underlying signal transduction pathways. We also discussed the implication of the basic knowledge of hormone-regulated plant heat responsive mechanism to develop heat-resilient plants as an effective and efficient way to cope with global warming.}, }
@article {pmid33642656, year = {2021}, author = {Cameron, L and Courchene, D and Ijaz, S and Mauro, I}, title = {'A change of heart': Indigenous perspectives from the Onjisay Aki Summit on climate change.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {164}, number = {3}, pages = {43}, pmid = {33642656}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: In June 2017, the Turtle Lodge Indigenous knowledge centre convened the Onjisay Aki International Climate Summit, an unparalleled opportunity for cross-cultural dialogue on climate change with environmental leaders and Indigenous Knowledge Keepers from 14 Nations around the world. In collaboration with Turtle Lodge, the Prairie Climate Centre was invited to support the documentation and communication of knowledge shared at the Summit. This process of Indigenous-led community-based research took an inter-epistemological approach, using roundtable discussions within a ceremonial context and collaborative written and video methods. The Summit brought forward an understanding of climate change as a symptom of a much larger problem with how colonialism has altered the human condition. The Knowledge Keepers suggested that, in order to effectively address climate change, humanity needs a shift in values and behaviours that ground our collective existence in a balanced relationship with the natural world and its laws. They emphasized that their diverse knowledges and traditions can provide inspiration and guidance for this cultural shift. This underscores the need for a new approach to engaging with Indigenous knowledge in climate research, which acknowledges it not only as a source of environmental observations, but a wealth of values, philosophies, and worldviews which can inform and guide action and research more broadly. In this light, Onjisay Aki makes significant contributions to the literature on Indigenous knowledge on climate change in Canada and internationally, as well as the ways in which this knowledge is gathered, documented, and shared through the leadership of the Knowledge Keepers.<br><br>SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03000-8.}, }
@article {pmid33641469, year = {2021}, author = {Orr, HG and Ekström, M and Charlton, MB and Peat, KL and Fowler, HJ}, title = {Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision-makers' perspective.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {379}, number = {2195}, pages = {20200219}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2020.0219}, pmid = {33641469}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {The UK Climate Change Act requires the Environment Agency to report the risks it faces from climate change and actions taken to address these. Derived information from projections is critical to understanding likely impacts in water management. In 2019, the UK published an ensemble of high-resolution model simulations. The UKCP Local (2.2 km) projections can resolve smaller scale physical processes that determine rainfall and other variables at subdaily time-scales with the potential to provide new insights into extreme events, storm runoff and drainage management. However, simulations also need to inform adaptation. The challenge ahead is to identify and provide derived products without the need for further analysis by decision-makers. These include a wider evaluation of uncertainty, narratives about rainfall change across the projections and bias-corrected datasets. Future flood maps, peak rainfall estimates, uplift factors and future design storm profiles also need detailed guidance to support their use. Central government support is justified in the provision of up-to-date impacts information to inform flood risk management, given the large risks and exposure of all sectors. The further development of projections would benefit from greater focus and earlier scoping with industry representatives, operational tool developers and end users. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.}, }
@article {pmid33641464, year = {2021}, author = {Fowler, HJ and Ali, H and Allan, RP and Ban, N and Barbero, R and Berg, P and Blenkinsop, S and Cabi, NS and Chan, S and Dale, M and Dunn, RJH and Ekström, M and Evans, JP and Fosser, G and Golding, B and Guerreiro, SB and Hegerl, GC and Kahraman, A and Kendon, EJ and Lenderink, G and Lewis, E and Li, X and O'Gorman, PA and Orr, HG and Peat, KL and Prein, AF and Pritchard, D and Schär, C and Sharma, A and Stott, PA and Villalobos-Herrera, R and Villarini, G and Wasko, C and Wehner, MF and Westra, S and Whitford, A}, title = {Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {379}, number = {2195}, pages = {20190542}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2019.0542}, pmid = {33641464}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate (6-7% K[-1]), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.}, }
@article {pmid33641461, year = {2021}, author = {Wasko, C}, title = {Review: Can temperature be used to inform changes to flood extremes with global warming?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {379}, number = {2195}, pages = {20190551}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2019.0551}, pmid = {33641461}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {As climate change alters flood risk, there is a need to project changes in flooding for water resource management, infrastructure design and planning. The use of observed temperature relationships for informing changes in hydrologic extremes takes many forms, from simple proportional change approaches to conditioning stochastic rainfall generation on observed temperatures. Although generally focused on understanding changes to precipitation, there is an implied transfer of information gained from precipitation-temperature sensitivities to flooding as extreme precipitation is often responsible for flooding. While reviews of precipitation-temperature sensitivities and the non-stationarity of flooding exist, little attention has been given to the intersection of these two topics. Models which use temperature as a covariate to assess the non-stationarity of extreme precipitation outperform both stationary models and those using a temporal trend as a covariate. But care must be taken when projecting changes in flooding on the basis on precipitation-temperature sensitivities, as antecedent conditions modify the runoff response. Although good agreement is found between peak flow-temperature sensitivities and historical trends across Australia, there remains little evaluation of flood projections using temperature sensitivities globally. Significant work needs to be done before the use of temperature as a covariate for flood projection can be adopted with confidence. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.}, }
@article {pmid33641459, year = {2021}, author = {Wasko, C and Westra, S and Nathan, R and Orr, HG and Villarini, G and Villalobos Herrera, R and Fowler, HJ}, title = {Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {379}, number = {2195}, pages = {20190548}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2019.0548}, pmid = {33641459}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {Research into potential implications of climate change on flood hazard has made significant progress over the past decade, yet efforts to translate this research into practical guidance for flood estimation remain in their infancy. In this commentary, we address the question: how best can practical flood guidance be modified to incorporate the additional uncertainty due to climate change? We begin by summarizing the physical causes of changes in flooding and then discuss common methods of design flood estimation in the context of uncertainty. We find that although climate science operates across aleatory, epistemic and deep uncertainty, engineering practitioners generally only address aleatory uncertainty associated with natural variability through standards-based approaches. A review of existing literature and flood guidance reveals that although research efforts in hydrology do not always reflect the methods used in flood estimation, significant progress has been made with many jurisdictions around the world now incorporating climate change in their flood guidance. We conclude that the deep uncertainty that climate change brings signals a need to shift towards more flexible design and planning approaches, and future research effort should focus on providing information that supports the range of flood estimation methods used in practice. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.}, }
@article {pmid33640546, year = {2021}, author = {Paul, N and Novais, SC and Silva, CSE and Mendes, S and Kunzmann, A and Lemos, MFL}, title = {Global warming overrides physiological anti-predatory mechanisms in intertidal rock pool fish Gobius paganellus.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {776}, number = {}, pages = {145736}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145736}, pmid = {33640546}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Fishes ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Oxidative Stress ; *Perciformes ; *Predatory Behavior ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {In nature, a multitude of factors influences the fitness of an organism at a given time, which makes single stressor assessments far from ecologically relevant scenarios. This study focused on the effects of water temperature and predation stress on the metabolism and body mass gain of a common intertidal rock pool fish, Gobius paganellus, addressing the following hypotheses: (1) the energy metabolism of G. paganellus under predation stress is reduced; (2) G. paganellus shows thermal compensation under heat stress; and (3) thermal stress is the dominant stressor that may override predation stress responses. Individuals were exposed to simulated predation stress and temperature increase from 20 °C to 29 °C, and both stressors combined. Physiological effects were addressed using biochemical biomarkers related with energy metabolism (isocitrate dehydrogenase, lactate dehydrogenase, energy available, energy consumption rates), oxidative stress (superoxide dismutase, catalase, DNA damage, lipid peroxidation), and biotransformation (glutathione-S-transferase). The results of this study revealed that predation stress reduced the cellular metabolism of G. paganellus, and enhanced storage of protein reserves. As hypothesized, hyperthermia decreased the aerobic mitochondrial metabolism, indicating thermal compensation mechanisms to resist against unfavourable temperatures. Hyperthermia was the dominant stressor overriding the physiological responses to predation stress. Both stressors combined might further have synergistically activated detoxification pathways, even though not strong enough to counteract lipid peroxidation and DNA damage completely. The synergistic effect of combined thermal and predation stress thus may not only increase the risk of being preyed upon, but also may indicate extra energy trade-off for the basal metabolism, which in turn may have ecologically relevant consequences for general body functions such as somatic growth and reproduction. The present findings clearly underline the ecological importance of multi-stressor assessments to provide a better and holistic picture of physiological responses towards more realistic evaluations of climate change consequences for intertidal populations.}, }
@article {pmid33639464, year = {2021}, author = {Manríquez, PH and Jara, ME and González, CP and Seguel, ME and Domenici, P and Watson, SA and Anguita, C and Duarte, C and Brokordt, K}, title = {The combined effects of climate change stressors and predatory cues on a mussel species.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {776}, number = {}, pages = {145916}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145916}, pmid = {33639464}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Cues ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Predatory Behavior ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {In order to make adequate projections on the consequences of climate change stressors on marine organisms, it is important to know how impacts of these stressors are affected by the presence of other species. Here we assessed the direct effects of ocean warming (OW) and acidification (OA) along with non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of a predatory crab and/or a predatory snail on the habitat-forming mussel Perumytilus purpuratus. Mussels were exposed for 10-14 weeks to contrasting pCO2 (500 and 1400 μatm) and temperature (15 and 20 °C) levels, in the presence/absence of cues from one or two predator species. We compared mussel traits at sub-organismal (nutritional status, metabolic capacity-ATP production-, cell stress condition via HSP70 expression) and organismal (survival, oxygen consumption, growth, byssus biogenesis, clearance rates, aggregation) levels. OA increased the mussels' oxygen consumption; and OA combined with OW increased ATP demand and the use of carbohydrate reserves. Mussels at present-day pCO2 levels had the highest protein content. Under OW the predatory snail cues induced the highest cell stress condition on the mussels. Temperature, predator cues and the interaction between them affected mussel growth. Mussels grew larger at the control temperature (15 °C) when crab and snail cues were present. Mussel wet mass and calcification were affected by predator cues; with highest values recorded in crab cue presence (isolated or combined with snail cues). In the absence of predator cues in the trails, byssus biogenesis was affected by OA, OW and the OA × OW and OA × predator cues interactions. At present-day pCO2 levels, more byssus was recorded with snail than with crab cues. Clearance rates were affected by temperature, pCO2 and the interaction between them. The investigated stressors had no effects on mussel aggregation. We conclude that OA, OW and the NCEs may lead to neutral, positive or negative consequences for mussels.}, }
@article {pmid33639447, year = {2021}, author = {Nyantakyi-Frimpong, H}, title = {Climate change, women's workload in smallholder agriculture, and embodied political ecologies of undernutrition in northern Ghana.}, journal = {Health &amp; place}, volume = {68}, number = {}, pages = {102536}, doi = {10.1016/j.healthplace.2021.102536}, pmid = {33639447}, issn = {1873-2054}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Ghana/epidemiology ; Humans ; Infant ; *Malnutrition/epidemiology ; Workload ; }, abstract = {The burden of child undernutrition across Africa remains extraordinarily high. Among children under age five, chronic and acute undernutrition is responsible for more ill-health than any other cause. While climate change exacerbates the multiple burdens of undernutrition, we know very little about the embodied effects on women's workload in agriculture and implications for feeding practices, especially for infants whose nutrition depends on mothers' time. In this article, political ecologies of health, with its nested, place-based analysis, is used as a framework to address this knowledge gap. The study took place in Ghana's Upper West Region, a semi-arid and resource-poor setting with higher undernutrition rates. In-depth interviews were conducted with smallholder farmers (n = 33) whose infants have sub-optimal growth, and key informants (n = 7) with expertise in nutrition and health. Findings from the study demonstrate how climate change puts pressure on women's productive time, leading to poor child feeding practices and undernutrition. Ultimately, the article argues that there are hidden impacts of climate change on undernutrition. Global undernutrition interventions should therefore move beyond biomedical solutions to address these hidden impacts, some of which are social, gendered, and structural in nature.}, }
@article {pmid33637108, year = {2021}, author = {Delahoy, MJ and Cárcamo, C and Huerta, A and Lavado, W and Escajadillo, Y and Ordoñez, L and Vasquez, V and Lopman, B and Clasen, T and Gonzales, GF and Steenland, K and Levy, K}, title = {Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005-2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {22}, pmid = {33637108}, issn = {1476-069X}, support = {K01 AI103544/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; U01 TW010107/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; U2R TW010114/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Diarrhea/*epidemiology ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Humans ; Infant ; Peru/epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global temperatures are projected to rise by ≥2 °C by the end of the century, with expected impacts on infectious disease incidence. Establishing the historic relationship between temperature and childhood diarrhea is important to inform future vulnerability under projected climate change scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: We compiled a national dataset from Peruvian government data sources, including weekly diarrhea surveillance records, annual administered doses of rotavirus vaccination, annual piped water access estimates, and daily temperature estimates. We used generalized estimating equations to quantify the association between ambient temperature and childhood (<&#x2009;5&#x2009;years) weekly reported clinic visits for diarrhea from 2005 to 2015 in 194 of 195 Peruvian provinces. We estimated the combined effect of the mean daily high temperature lagged 1, 2, and 3 weeks, in the eras before (2005-2009) and after (2010-2015) widespread rotavirus vaccination in Peru and examined the influence of varying levels of piped water access.<br><br>RESULTS: Nationally, an increase of 1&#x2009;&#xb0;C in the temperature across the three prior weeks was associated with a 3.8% higher rate of childhood clinic visits for diarrhea [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.04]. Controlling for temperature, there was a significantly higher incidence rate of childhood diarrhea clinic visits during moderate/strong El Ni&#xf1;o events (IRR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04) and during the dry season (IRR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.03). Nationally, there was no evidence that the association between temperature and the childhood diarrhea rate changed between the pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine eras, or that higher levels of access to piped water mitigated the effects of temperature on the childhood diarrhea rate.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Higher temperatures and intensifying El Ni&#xf1;o events that may result from climate change could increase clinic visits for childhood diarrhea in Peru. Findings underscore the importance of considering climate in assessments of childhood diarrhea in Peru and globally, and can inform regional vulnerability assessments and mitigation planning efforts.}, }
@article {pmid33636523, year = {2021}, author = {Hahn, ER}, title = {The developmental roots of environmental stewardship: Childhood and the climate change crisis.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {19-24}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.01.006}, pmid = {33636523}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Morals ; }, abstract = {Childhood presents heightened vulnerabilities and unique opportunities in the context of climate change. Even very young children view the environment as a moral concern. Furthermore, early life experiences can lay the groundwork for a lifetime of environmental stewardship. Exposure to nature and parental eco-friendly behaviors are each predictive of children's commitment to environmental engagement later in life. However, these early inclinations give way to decreasing environmental concern in adolescence. Research is beginning to shift from a framework that emphasizes children's status as victims of the climate change crisis to one that instead underscores their role as agents of change.}, }
@article {pmid33636522, year = {2021}, author = {Adams, M}, title = {Critical psychologies and climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {13-18}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.01.007}, pmid = {33636522}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {This article is a review of recent contributions in critical psychology and its close cousins, critical social psychology, critical community psychology and liberation psychology, to understand human response to climate change. It contrasts critical psychology with mainstream psychology in general terms, before introducing a critical psychological perspective on climate change. Central to this perspective is a critique of the framing of individual behaviour change as the problem and solution to climate change in mainstream psychology and a related emphasis on identifying 'barriers' to proenvironmental behaviour. This framework is argued to be reductive, obscuring or downplaying the influence of a range of factors in shaping predominant responses to climate change to date, including social context, discourse, power and affect. Currently, critical psychologies set out to study the relative contribution of these factors to (in)action on climate change. A related concern is how the psychological and emotional impacts of climate change impact unevenly on communities and individuals, depending on place-based, economic, geographic and cultural differences, and give rise to experiences of injustice, inequality and disempowerment. Critical psychology does not assume these to be overriding or inevitable psychological and social responses, however. Critical psychologies also undertake research and inform interventions that highlight the role of collective understanding, activism, empowerment and resistance as the necessary foundations of a genuine shift towards sustainable societies.}, }
@article {pmid33635203, year = {2021}, author = {Ngo, NT}, title = {Climate Change and Health Equity.}, journal = {AMA journal of ethics}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {E201-203}, doi = {10.1001/amajethics.2021.201}, pmid = {33635203}, issn = {2376-6980}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; Health Services Accessibility ; Healthcare Disparities ; Humans ; Income ; }, abstract = {Physical environment, income, and access to education and food are all health determinants that situate whether, when, and to what extent patients or their communities have equitable access to wellness and health care services. Because climate change will likely exacerbate national and international health inequity, this comic considers our future.}, }
@article {pmid33628429, year = {2020}, author = {Abu-Omar, K and Gelius, P and Messing, S}, title = {Physical activity promotion in the age of climate change.}, journal = {F1000Research}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {349}, pmid = {33628429}, issn = {2046-1402}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Exercise ; Global Health ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The importance of the global climate crisis requires linking physical activity promotion and climate action. This article provides a first overview of interconnections between physical activity promotion and climate action, potential synergies and discrepancies, aiming to stimulate further discussion about this topic. The analysis is based on the World Health Organization's Global Action Plan on Physical Activity 2018-2030 (GAPPA). The GAPPA covers five perspectives that are of particular relevance with respect to potential links with climate policy: (1) Infrastructures supporting active transport, (2) green spaces and recreational/exercise facilities, (3) exercise programs, (4) mass communication campaigns and mass participation events and (5) training of professionals. Our analysis demonstrates a considerable alignment between strategies for physical activity promotion and efforts for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. However, in some of the areas, this alignment could still be improved. Additionally, more climate-conscious policies, research and surveillance need to be developed in the field of physical activity promotion.}, }
@article {pmid33630399, year = {2021}, author = {Huber, N and Bugmann, H and Cailleret, M and Bircher, N and Lafond, V}, title = {Stand-scale climate change impacts on forests over large areas: transient responses and projection uncertainties.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {31}, number = {4}, pages = {e02313}, pmid = {33630399}, issn = {1939-5582}, support = {//Swiss Federal Office for the Environment FOEN/ ; C14.0046//Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation SERI/ ; 140968/SNSF_/Swiss National Science Foundation/Switzerland ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Trees ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The increasing impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems have triggered multiple model-based impact assessments for the future, which typically focused either on a small number of stand-scale case studies or on large scale analyses (i.e., continental to global). Therefore, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the local impacts over large areas (i.e., regions to countries), which is particularly problematic for forest management. We provide a comprehensive, high-resolution assessment of the climate change sensitivity of managed Swiss forests (~10,000 km[2]), which cover a wide range of environmental conditions. We used a dynamic vegetation model to project the development of typical forest stands derived from a stratification of the Third National Forest Inventory until the end of the 22nd century. Two types of simulations were conducted: one limited to using the extant local species, the other enabling immigration of potentially more climate-adapted species. Moreover, to assess the robustness of our projections, we quantified and decomposed the uncertainty in model projections resulting from the following sources: (1) climate change scenarios, (2) local site conditions, and (3) the dynamic vegetation model itself (i.e., represented by a set of model versions), an aspect hitherto rarely taken into account. The simulations showed substantial changes in basal area and species composition, with dissimilar sensitivity to climate change across and within elevation zones. Higher-elevation stands generally profited from increased temperature, but soil conditions strongly modulated this response. Low-elevation stands were increasingly subject to drought, with strong negative impacts on forest growth. Furthermore, current stand structure had a strong effect on the simulated response. The admixture of drought-tolerant species was found advisable across all elevations to mitigate future adverse climate-induced effects. The largest uncertainty in model projections was associated with climate change scenarios. Uncertainty induced by the model version was generally largest where overall simulated climate change impacts were small, thus corroborating the utility of the model for making projections into the future. Yet, the large influence of both site conditions and the model version on some of the projections indicates that uncertainty sources other than climate change scenarios need to be considered in climate change impact assessments.}, }
@article {pmid33630267, year = {2021}, author = {Lavrillier, A and Gabyshev, S}, title = {An Indigenous science of the climate change impacts on landscape topography in Siberia.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {11}, pages = {1910-1925}, pmid = {33630267}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {ANR-12-SENV-005//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; 1127//French Polar Institute IPEV/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Indigenous Peoples ; *Reindeer ; Siberia ; Snow ; }, abstract = {As with many Indigenous Peoples, the Siberian Evenki nomadic reindeer herders and hunters have observed increasing consequences of climate change on the cryosphere and biodiversity. Since 2017, they have observed previously unthinkable changes in topography. Based exclusively on an Evenki Indigenous Ecological Knowledge system-social anthropology coproduction and community-based continuous observation from 2013, this paper analyses what a Subarctic People observes, knows, does not know, hypothesizes, and models (collectively or individually) about climate change impacts on Indigenous landscape types typical for local river systems. These landscapes are crucial tools for traditional activities. To the nomads, the landscape changes emerge from general anomalies: competition from new plant species; atmosphere-ground-vegetation interactions; icing blisters decrease; rising receding river water interactions; the formation of new soil, ice, and snow types; increasing ground, air, and water temperatures; and the (non)circulation of harsh air throughout the snowpack. We demonstrate the science-like structure and value of Indigenous typologies and hypotheses.}, }
@article {pmid33629785, year = {2021}, author = {Pontzer, H}, title = {Hotter and sicker: External energy expenditure and the tangled evolutionary roots of anthropogenic climate change and chronic disease.}, journal = {American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {e23579}, doi = {10.1002/ajhb.23579}, pmid = {33629785}, issn = {1520-6300}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Chronic Disease/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Fossil Fuels/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Industrial Development/*trends ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The dual crises of climate change and chronic, or non-communicable, disease (NCD) have emerged worldwide as the global economy has industrialized over the past two centuries.<br><br>AIMS: In this synthesis I examine humans' dependence on external (non-metabolic) energy expenditure (e.g., fire, fossil fuels) as a common, root cause in these modern crises.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using fossil, archeological, and historical evidence I show that the human lineage has been dependent on external energy sources since the control of fire in the Paleolithic. This reliance has grown with the development of agriculture, the use of wind- and water-power, and the most recently with industrialization and the transition to fossil fuels. To place industrialization in context I develop a Rule of 50, whereby individuals in industrialized economies consume roughly 50-times more external energy and manufacture roughly 50-times more material than do hunter-gatherers.<br><br>RESULTS: Industrialization and mechanization, powered by fossil fuels, have promoted centralization and processing in food production, reduced physical activity, and increased air pollution (including greenhouse gas emissions). These developments have led in turn to NCD and climate change.<br><br>DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Climate change and NCD are connected both to one another and to our species' deep evolutionary dependence on external energy. Transitioning to carbon-free energy is essential to reduce the existential risks of climate change, but will likely have only modest effects on NCD. With the impending exhaustion of oil, coal, and natural gas reserves, developing replacements for fossil fuels is also critical to maintaining our species' external energy portfolio.}, }
@article {pmid33628400, year = {2020}, author = {Moore, C and Morley, JW and Morrison, B and Kolian, M and Horsch, E and FrÖlicher, T and Pinsky, ML and Griffis, R}, title = {ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES.}, journal = {Climate change economics}, volume = {N/A}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {33628400}, issn = {2010-0086}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Observational evidence shows marine species are shifting their geographic distribution in response to warming ocean temperatures. These shifts have implications for the US fisheries and seafood consumers. The analysis presented here employs a two-stage inverse demand model to estimate the consumer welfare impacts of projected increases or decreases in commercial landings for 16 US fisheries from 2021 to 2100, based on the predicted changes in thermally available habitat. The fisheries analyzed together account for 56% of the current US commercial fishing revenues. The analysis compares welfare impacts under two climate scenarios: a high emissions case that assumes limited efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas and a low emissions case that assumes more stringent mitigation. The present value of consumer surplus impacts when discounted at 3% is a net loss of $2.1 billion (2018 US$) in the low emissions case and $4.2 billion in the high emissions scenario. Projected annual losses reach $278-901 million by 2100.}, }
@article {pmid33627718, year = {2021}, author = {Di Nuzzo, L and Vallese, C and Benesperi, R and Giordani, P and Chiarucci, A and Di Cecco, V and Di Martino, L and Di Musciano, M and Gheza, G and Lelli, C and Spitale, D and Nascimbene, J}, title = {Contrasting multitaxon responses to climate change in Mediterranean mountains.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {4438}, pmid = {33627718}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {We explored the influence of climatic factors on diversity patterns of multiple taxa (lichens, bryophytes, and vascular plants) along a steep elevational gradient to predict communities' dynamics under future climate change scenarios in Mediterranean regions. We analysed (1) species richness patterns in terms of heat-adapted, intermediate, and cold-adapted species; (2) pairwise beta-diversity patterns, also accounting for its two different components, species replacement and richness difference; (3) the influence of climatic variables on species functional traits. Species richness is influenced by different factors between three taxonomic groups, while beta diversity differs mainly between plants and cryptogams. Functional traits are influenced by different factors in each taxonomic group. On the basis of our observations, poikilohydric cryptogams could be more impacted by climate change than vascular plants. However, contrasting species-climate and traits-climate relationships were also found between lichens and bryophytes suggesting that each group may be sensitive to different components of climate change. Our study supports the usefulness of a multi-taxon approach coupled with a species traits analysis to better unravel the response of terrestrial communities to climate change. This would be especially relevant for lichens and bryophytes, whose response to climate change is still poorly explored.}, }
@article {pmid33627656, year = {2021}, author = {Koh, LP and Zeng, Y and Sarira, TV and Siman, K}, title = {Carbon prospecting in tropical forests for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1271}, pmid = {33627656}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Carbon finance projects that protect tropical forests could support both nature conservation and climate change mitigation goals. Global demand for nature-based carbon credits is outpacing their supply, due partly to gaps in knowledge needed to inform and prioritize investment decisions. Here, we show that at current carbon market prices the protection of tropical forests can generate investible carbon amounting to 1.8 (±1.1) GtCO2e yr[-1] globally. We further show that financially viable carbon projects could generate return-on-investment amounting to $46.0b y[-1] in net present value (Asia-Pacific: $24.6b y[-1]; Americas: $19.1b y[-1]; Africa: $2.4b y[-1]). However, we also find that ~80% (1.24 billion ha) of forest carbon sites would be financially unviable for failing to break even over the project lifetime. From a conservation perspective, unless carbon prices increase in the future, it is imperative to implement other conservation interventions, in addition to carbon finance, to safeguard carbon stocks and biodiversity in vulnerable forests.}, }
@article {pmid33627469, year = {2021}, author = {Lefevre, S and Wang, T and McKenzie, DJ}, title = {The role of mechanistic physiology in investigating impacts of global warming on fishes.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {224}, number = {Pt Suppl 1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.238840}, pmid = {33627469}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Climate Change ; *Fishes ; *Global Warming ; Oxygen ; Oxygen Consumption ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Warming of aquatic environments as a result of climate change is already having measurable impacts on fishes, manifested as changes in phenology, range shifts and reductions in body size. Understanding the physiological mechanisms underlying these seemingly universal patterns is crucial if we are to reliably predict the fate of fish populations with future warming. This includes an understanding of mechanisms for acute thermal tolerance, as extreme heatwaves may be a major driver of observed effects. The hypothesis of gill oxygen limitation (GOL) is claimed to explain asymptotic fish growth, and why some fish species are decreasing in size with warming; but its underlying assumptions conflict with established knowledge and direct mechanistic evidence is lacking. The hypothesis of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) has stimulated a wave of research into the role of oxygen supply capacity and thermal performance curves for aerobic scope, but results vary greatly between species, indicating that it is unlikely to be a universal mechanism. As thermal performance curves remain important for incorporating physiological tolerance into models, we discuss potentially fruitful alternatives to aerobic scope, notably specific dynamic action and growth rate. We consider the limitations of estimating acute thermal tolerance by a single rapid measure whose mechanism of action is not known. We emphasise the continued importance of experimental physiology, particularly in advancing our understanding of underlying mechanisms, but also the challenge of making this knowledge relevant to the more complex reality.}, }
@article {pmid33627468, year = {2021}, author = {Le Lann, C and van Baaren, J and Visser, B}, title = {Dealing with predictable and unpredictable temperatures in a climate change context: the case of parasitoids and their hosts.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {224}, number = {Pt Suppl 1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.238626}, pmid = {33627468}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Food Chain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Earth's climate is changing at a rapid pace. To survive in increasingly fluctuating and unpredictable environments, species can either migrate or evolve through rapid local adaptation, plasticity and/or bet-hedging. For small ectotherm insects, like parasitoids and their hosts, phenotypic plasticity and bet-hedging could be critical strategies for population and species persistence in response to immediate, intense and unpredictable temperature changes. Here, we focus on studies evaluating phenotypic responses to variable predictable thermal conditions (for which phenotypic plasticity is favoured) and unpredictable thermal environments (for which bet-hedging is favoured), both within and between host and parasitoid generations. We then address the effects of fluctuating temperatures on host-parasitoid interactions, potential cascading effects on the food web, as well as biological control services. We conclude our review by proposing a road map for designing experiments to assess if plasticity and bet-hedging can be adaptive strategies, and to disentangle how fluctuating temperatures can affect the evolution of these two strategies in parasitoids and their hosts.}, }
@article {pmid33627466, year = {2021}, author = {Hof, C}, title = {Towards more integration of physiology, dispersal and land-use change to understand the responses of species to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {224}, number = {Pt Suppl 1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.238352}, pmid = {33627466}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {The accelerating biodiversity crisis, for which climate change has become an important driver, urges the scientific community for answers to the question of whether and how species are capable of responding successfully to rapidly changing climatic conditions. For a better understanding and more realistic predictions of species' and biodiversity responses, the consideration of extrinsic (i.e. environment-related) and intrinsic (i.e. organism-related) factors is important, among which four appear to be particularly crucial: climate change and land-use change, as extrinsic factors, as well as physiology and dispersal capacity, as intrinsic factors. Here, I argue that these four factors should be considered in an integrative way, but that the scientific community has not yet been very successful in doing so. A quantitative literature review revealed a generally low level of integration within global change biology, with a pronounced gap especially between the field of physiology and other (sub)disciplines. After a discussion of potential reasons for this unfortunate lack of integration, some of which may relate to key deficits e.g. in the reward and incentive systems of academia, I suggest a few ideas that might help to overcome some of the barriers between separated research communities. Furthermore, I list several examples for promising research along the integration frontier, after which I outline some research questions that could become relevant if one is to push the boundary of integration among disciplines, of data and methods, and across scales even further - for a better understanding and more reliable predictions of species and biodiversity in a world of global change.}, }
@article {pmid33627465, year = {2021}, author = {Fuller, A and Mitchell, D and Maloney, SK and Hetem, RS and Fonsêca, VFC and Meyer, LCR and van de Ven, TMFN and Snelling, EP}, title = {How dryland mammals will respond to climate change: the effects of body size, heat load and a lack of food and water.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {224}, number = {Pt Suppl 1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.238113}, pmid = {33627465}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mammals ; Water ; }, abstract = {Mammals in drylands are facing not only increasing heat loads but also reduced water and food availability as a result of climate change. Insufficient water results in suppression of evaporative cooling and therefore increases in body core temperature on hot days, while lack of food reduces the capacity to maintain body core temperature on cold nights. Both food and water shortage will narrow the prescriptive zone, the ambient temperature range over which body core temperature is held relatively constant, which will lead to increased risk of physiological malfunction and death. Behavioural modifications, such as shifting activity between night and day or seeking thermally buffered microclimates, may allow individuals to remain within the prescriptive zone, but can incur costs, such as reduced foraging or increased competition or predation, with consequences for fitness. Body size will play a major role in predicting response patterns, but identifying all the factors that will contribute to how well dryland mammals facing water and food shortage will cope with increasing heat loads requires a better understanding of the sensitivities and responses of mammals exposed to the direct and indirect effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33627463, year = {2021}, author = {Carter, AL and Janzen, FJ}, title = {Predicting the effects of climate change on incubation in reptiles: methodological advances and new directions.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {224}, number = {Pt Suppl 1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33627463}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Reptiles ; *Sex Determination Processes ; Sex Ratio ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The unprecedented advancement of global climate change is affecting thermal conditions across spatial and temporal scales. Reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) are uniquely vulnerable to even fine-scale variation in incubation conditions and are a model system for investigating the impacts of shifting temperatures on key physiological and life-history traits. The ways in which current and predicted future climatic conditions translate from macro- to ultra-fine scale temperature traces in subterranean nests is insufficiently understood. Reliably predicting the ways in which fine-scale, daily and seasonally fluctuating nest temperatures influence embryonic development and offspring phenotypes is a goal that remains constrained by many of the same logistical challenges that have persisted throughout more than four decades of research on TSD. However, recent advances in microclimate and developmental modeling should allow us to move farther away from relatively coarse metrics with limited predictive capacity and towards a fully mechanistic model of TSD that can predict incubation conditions and phenotypic outcomes for a variety of reptile species across space and time and for any climate scenario.}, }
@article {pmid33627462, year = {2021}, author = {Diamond, SE and Martin, RA}, title = {Physiological adaptation to cities as a proxy to forecast global-scale responses to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {224}, number = {Pt Suppl 1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.229336}, pmid = {33627462}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Islands ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Cities are emerging as a new venue to overcome the challenges of obtaining data on compensatory responses to climatic warming through phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary change. In this Review, we highlight how cities can be used to explore physiological trait responses to experimental warming, and also how cities can be used as human-made space-for-time substitutions. We assessed the current literature and found evidence for significant plasticity and evolution in thermal tolerance trait responses to urban heat islands. For those studies that reported both plastic and evolved components of thermal tolerance, we found evidence that both mechanisms contributed to phenotypic shifts in thermal tolerance, rather than plastic responses precluding or limiting evolved responses. Interestingly though, for a broader range of studies, we found that the magnitude of evolved shifts in thermal tolerance was not significantly different from the magnitude of shift in those studies that only reported phenotypic results, which could be a product of evolution, plasticity, or both. Regardless, the magnitude of shifts in urban thermal tolerance phenotypes was comparable to more traditional space-for-time substitutions across latitudinal and altitudinal clines in environmental temperature. We conclude by considering how urban-derived estimates of plasticity and evolution of thermal tolerance traits can be used to improve forecasting methods, including macrophysiological models and species distribution modelling approaches. Finally, we consider areas for further exploration including sub-lethal performance traits and thermal performance curves, assessing the adaptive nature of trait shifts, and taking full advantage of the environmental thermal variation that cities generate.}, }
@article {pmid33627273, year = {2021}, author = {Vargas-Chacoff, L and Martínez, D and Oyarzún-Salazar, R and Paschke, K and Navarro, JM}, title = {The osmotic response capacity of the Antarctic fish Harpagifer antarcticus is insufficient to cope with projected temperature and salinity under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {96}, number = {}, pages = {102835}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2021.102835}, pmid = {33627273}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fish Proteins/physiology ; Gills/physiology ; Intestines/physiology ; Kidney/physiology ; Membrane Transport Proteins/physiology ; Osmolar Concentration ; *Osmoregulation ; Perciformes/*physiology ; *Salinity ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Over the last decades, climate change has intensified. Temperatures have increased and seawater has become "fresher" in Antarctica, affecting fish such as Harpagifer antarcticus. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate changes in the osmoregulatory response of the Antarctic notothenioid fish Harpagifer antarcticus and evaluate how it will cope with the future climate change and environmental conditions in the Antarctic, and in the hypothetical case that its geographical distribution will be extended to the Magellanes region. The present study was undertaken to determine the interaction between temperature and salinity tolerance (2 °C and 33 psu as the control group, the experimental groups were 5, 8, and 11 °C and 28 and 23 psu) and their effect on the osmoregulatory status of H. antarcticus. We evaluated changes in gill-kidney-intestine NKA activity, gene expression of NKAα, NKCC, CFTR, Aquaporins 1 and 8 in the same tissues, muscle water percentage, and plasma osmolality to evaluate osmoregulatory responses. Plasma osmolality decreased with high temperature, also the gill-kidney-intestine NKA activity, gene expression of NKA α, NKCC, CFTR, Aquaporins 1, and 8 were modified by temperature and salinity. We demonstrated that H. antarcticus can not live in the Magallanes region, due to its incapacity to put up with temperatures over 5 °C and with over 8 °C being catastrophic.}, }
@article {pmid33626061, year = {2021}, author = {Walker, SJ and Meijer, HJM}, title = {Size variation in mid-Holocene North Atlantic Puffins indicates a dynamic response to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {e0246888}, pmid = {33626061}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; Charadriiformes/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Global Warming ; Male ; Scandinavian and Nordic Countries ; }, abstract = {Seabirds are one of the most at-risk groups, with many species in decline. In Scandinavia, seabirds are at a heightened risk of extinction due to accelerated global warming. Norway is home to significant portion of the European Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations, but Norwegian populations have declined significantly during the last decades. In this paper we use biometric data from modern and archaeological F. arctica specimens to investigate patterns in body size variation over time of this iconic species. We aimed to set out a baseline for our archaeological comparison by firstly investigating whether modern subspecies of F. arctica are reflected in the osteological characters and are enough to distinguish subspecies from the bones alone. We then investigated if archaeological remains of F. arctica differ in size from the modern subspecies. Our results show that the subspecies Fratercula arctica naumanni was distinctly larger than the other subspecies. However, Fratercula arctica arctica and Fratercula arctica grabae were difficult to separate based on size. This generally supports ornithological observations. Post-Medieval F. arctica bones from Måsøy were similar to modern F. a. arctica populations. The mid-Holocene remains from Dollsteinhola overlaps with the modern size ranges of F. a. arctica and F. a. grabae but are generally shorter and more robust. Dollsteinhola is located close to the borders of the modern breeding ranges of both F. a. arctica and F. a. grabae. We consider it therefore likely that given the mid-Holocene climatic oscillations, breeding ranges of the two subspecies shifted north or south accordingly. However, this does not explain the different proportions of the Dollsteinhola specimens. Our data provide the first evidence for shifting distributions in ancient Atlantic Puffins and represent the first osteological analysis of Fratercula arctica subspecies.}, }
@article {pmid33626042, year = {2021}, author = {Abbas, S and Nichol, JE and Wong, MS}, title = {Trends in vegetation productivity related to climate change in China's Pearl River Delta.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {e0245467}, pmid = {33626042}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Plants ; *Rivers ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change will be a powerful stressor on ecosystems and biodiversity in the second half of the 21st century. In this study, we used the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to examine a 34-year trend along with the response of vegetation to climate indicators surrounding the world's largest megacity: the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China. An overall increasing trend is observed in vegetation productivity metrics over the study period 1982 to 2015. Increase in winter productivity in both natural ecosystems and croplands is more related to increasing temperatures (r = 0.5-0.78), than to changes in rainfall. For growing season productivity, negative correlations with temperature were observed in cropland regions, and some forests in the northern part of PRD region, suggesting high-temperature stress on crop production and forest vegetation. However, increased winter and spring temperatures provide higher opportunities for cropping in winter. During the decade 1995-2004, vegetation productivity metrics showed a reversal in the upward trend. The geographical and biological complexity of the region under significant climatic and development impacts suggests causative factors would be synergistic. These include our observed decrease in sunshine hours, increasing cloud cover associated with atmospheric aerosols from industrial and urban development, direct pollution effects on plant growth, and exceedance of high temperature growth thresholds.}, }
@article {pmid33625965, year = {2021}, author = {Wollrab, S and Izmest'yeva Любовь Р Изместьева, L and Hampton, SE and Silow Евгений А Зилов, EA and Litchman, E and Klausmeier, CA}, title = {Climate Change-Driven Regime Shifts in a Planktonic Food Web.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {197}, number = {3}, pages = {281-295}, doi = {10.1086/712813}, pmid = {33625965}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; *Ice Cover ; *Models, Biological ; *Plankton ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {AbstractPredicting how food webs will respond to global environmental change is difficult because of the complex interplay between the abiotic forcing and biotic interactions. Mechanistic models of species interactions in seasonal environments can help understand the effects of global change in different ecosystems. Seasonally ice-covered lakes are warming faster than many other ecosystems and undergoing pronounced food web changes, making the need to forecast those changes especially urgent. Using a seasonally forced food web model with a generalist zooplankton grazer and competing cold-adapted winter and warm-adapted summer phytoplankton, we show that with declining ice cover, the food web moves through different dynamic regimes, from annual to biennial cycles, with decreasing and then disappearing winter phytoplankton blooms and a shift of maximum biomass to summer season. Interestingly, when predator-prey interactions were not included, a declining ice cover did not cause regime shifts, suggesting that both are needed for regime transitions. A cluster analysis of long-term data from Lake Baikal, Siberia, supports the model results, revealing a change from regularly occurring winter blooms of endemic diatoms to less frequent winter bloom years with decreasing ice cover. Together, the results show that even gradual environmental change, such as declining ice cover duration, may cause discontinuous or abrupt transitions between dynamic regimes in food webs.}, }
@article {pmid33621880, year = {2021}, author = {Fuentes-Santos, I and Labarta, U and Fernández-Reiriz, MJ and Kay, S and Hjøllo, SS and Alvarez-Salgado, XA}, title = {Modeling the impact of climate change on mussel aquaculture in a coastal upwelling system: A critical assessment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {775}, number = {}, pages = {145020}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145020}, pmid = {33621880}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture ; *Bivalvia ; Climate Change ; *Mytilus ; Seafood ; }, abstract = {Forecasting of climate change impacts on marine aquaculture production has become a major research task, which requires taking into account the biases and uncertainties arising from ocean climate models in coastal areas, as well as considering culture management strategies. Focusing on the suspended mussel culture in the NW Iberian coastal upwelling system, we simulated current and future mussel growth by means of a multistructural net production Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model. We considered two scenarios and three ocean climate models to account for climate uncertainty, and applied a bias correction to the climate models in coastal areas. Our results show that the predicted impact of climate change on mussel growth is low compared with the role of the seeding time. However, the response of mussels varied across climate models, ranging from a minor growth decline to a moderate growth increase. Therefore, this work confirms that an accurate forecasting of climate change impacts on shellfish aquaculture should take into account the variability linked to both management strategies and climate uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid33619353, year = {2021}, author = {Broadbent, AAD and Snell, HSK and Michas, A and Pritchard, WJ and Newbold, L and Cordero, I and Goodall, T and Schallhart, N and Kaufmann, R and Griffiths, RI and Schloter, M and Bahn, M and Bardgett, RD}, title = {Climate change alters temporal dynamics of alpine soil microbial functioning and biogeochemical cycling via earlier snowmelt.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {2264-2275}, pmid = {33619353}, issn = {1751-7370}, support = {BB/S010661/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Seasons ; Snow ; *Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Soil microbial communities regulate global biogeochemical cycles and respond rapidly to changing environmental conditions. However, understanding how soil microbial communities respond to climate change, and how this influences biogeochemical cycles, remains a major challenge. This is especially pertinent in alpine regions where climate change is taking place at double the rate of the global average, with large reductions in snow cover and earlier spring snowmelt expected as a consequence. Here, we show that spring snowmelt triggers an abrupt transition in the composition of soil microbial communities of alpine grassland that is closely linked to shifts in soil microbial functioning and biogeochemical pools and fluxes. Further, by experimentally manipulating snow cover we show that this abrupt seasonal transition in wide-ranging microbial and biogeochemical soil properties is advanced by earlier snowmelt. Preceding winter conditions did not change the processes that take place during snowmelt. Our findings emphasise the importance of seasonal dynamics for soil microbial communities and the biogeochemical cycles that they regulate. Moreover, our findings suggest that earlier spring snowmelt due to climate change will have far reaching consequences for microbial communities and nutrient cycling in these globally widespread alpine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid33618305, year = {2021}, author = {Vasiliev, D and Greenwood, S}, title = {The role of climate change in pollinator decline across the Northern Hemisphere is underestimated.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {775}, number = {}, pages = {145788}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145788}, pmid = {33618305}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Pollination ; }, abstract = {Pollinator biodiversity loss occurs at unprecedented rates globally, with particularly sharp declines documented in the North Temperate Zone. There is currently no consensus on the main drivers of the decline. Although climate change is expected to drive biodiversity loss in the future, current warming is often suggested to have positive impacts on pollinator assemblages in higher latitudes. Consequently, pollinator conservation initiatives in Europe and the USA tend to lack climate adaptation initiatives, an omission of which may be risky if climate change has significant negative impacts on pollinators. To gain an understanding of the impacts of climate change on pollinator biodiversity in the Northern Hemisphere, we conducted a literature review on genetic, species and community level diversity. Our findings suggest that global heating most likely causes homogenization of pollinator assemblages at all levels of pollinator biodiversity, making them less resilient to future stochasticity. Aspects of biodiversity that are rarely measured (e.g. genetic diversity, β-diversity, species evenness) tend to be most affected, while some dimensions of climate change, such as fluctuations in winter weather conditions, changes in the length of the vegetational season and increased frequency of extreme weather events, that seldom receive attention in empirical studies, tend to be particularly detrimental to pollinators. Negative effects of global heating on pollinator biodiversity are most likely exacerbated by homogenous and fragmented landscapes, widespread across Europe and the US, which limit opportunities for range-shifts and reduce micro-climatic buffering. This suggests the need for conservation initiatives to focus on increasing landscape connectivity and heterogeneity at multiple spatial scales.}, }
@article {pmid33617068, year = {2021}, author = {Shamji, MH and Boyle, RJ}, title = {What does climate change mean for people with pollen allergy?.}, journal = {Clinical and experimental allergy : journal of the British Society for Allergy and Clinical Immunology}, volume = {51}, number = {2}, pages = {202-205}, doi = {10.1111/cea.13826}, pmid = {33617068}, issn = {1365-2222}, mesh = {Airway Remodeling/physiology ; Asthma/*epidemiology/genetics/immunology/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Cross Reactions/immunology ; Humans ; Rhinitis, Allergic/immunology/*physiopathology ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*epidemiology/immunology ; }, }
@article {pmid33611067, year = {2021}, author = {Salimi, S and Almuktar, SAAAN and Scholz, M}, title = {Impact of climate change on wetland ecosystems: A critical review of experimental wetlands.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {286}, number = {}, pages = {112160}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112160}, pmid = {33611067}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Hydrology ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Climate change is identified as a major threat to wetlands. Altered hydrology and rising temperature can change the biogeochemistry and function of a wetland to the degree that some important services might be turned into disservices. This means that they will, for example, no longer provide a water purification service and adversely they may start to decompose and release nutrients to the surface water. Moreover, a higher rate of decomposition than primary production (photosynthesis) may lead to a shift of their function from being a sink of carbon to a source. This review paper assesses the potential response of natural wetlands (peatlands) and constructed wetlands to climate change in terms of gas emission and nutrients release. In addition, the impact of key climatic factors such as temperature and water availability on wetlands has been reviewed. The authors identified the methodological gaps and weaknesses in the literature and then introduced a new framework for conducting a comprehensive mesocosm experiment to address the existing gaps in literature to support future climate change research on wetland ecosystems. In the future, higher temperatures resulting in drought might shift the role of both constructed wetland and peatland from a sink to a source of carbon. However, higher temperatures accompanied by more precipitation can promote photosynthesis to a degree that might exceed the respiration and maintain the carbon sink role of the wetland. There might be a critical water level at which the wetland can preserve most of its services. In order to find that level, a study of the key factors of climate change and their interactions using an appropriate experimental method is necessary. Some contradictory results of past experiments can be associated with different methodologies, designs, time periods, climates, and natural variability. Hence a long-term simulation of climate change for wetlands according to the proposed framework is recommended. This framework provides relatively more accurate and realistic simulations, valid comparative results, comprehensive understanding and supports coordination between researchers. This can help to find a sustainable management strategy for wetlands to be resilient to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33609913, year = {2021}, author = {van der Linden, S}, title = {The Gateway Belief Model (GBM): A review and research agenda for communicating the scientific consensus on climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {7-12}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.01.005}, pmid = {33609913}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Consensus ; Cues ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Empirical research on the Gateway Belief Model (GBM) has flourished in recent years. The model offers a dual-process account of how attitude change happens in response to normative cues about scientific agreement. A plethora of correlational and experimental evidence has emerged documenting the positive direct and indirect effects of communicating the scientific consensus on global warming. I review recent scholarship and argue that the next generation of research on the GBM should focus on better justifying the inclusion of moderators on both a theoretical and empirical level, explicitly manipulate motivations to process the consensus message, model how consensus cues operate in competitive information networks and test the model in field settings using causal chain experiments.}, }
@article {pmid33609326, year = {2021}, author = {Abendroth, LJ and Miguez, FE and Castellano, MJ and Carter, PR and Messina, CD and Dixon, PM and Hatfield, JL}, title = {Lengthening of maize maturity time is not a widespread climate change adaptation strategy in the US Midwest.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {11}, pages = {2426-2440}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15565}, pmid = {33609326}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2011-68002-30190//USDA-NIFA/ ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Edible Grain ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Increasing temperatures in the US Midwest are projected to reduce maize yields because warmer temperatures hasten reproductive development and, as a result, shorten the grain fill period. However, there is widespread expectation that farmers will mitigate projected yield losses by planting longer season hybrids that lengthen the grain fill period. Here, we ask: (a) how current hybrid maturity length relates to thermal availability of the local climate, and (b) if farmers are shifting to longer season hybrids in response to a warming climate. To address these questions, we used county-level Pioneer brand hybrid sales (Corteva Agriscience) across 17 years and 650 counties in 10 Midwest states (IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, MO, ND, OH, SD, and WI). Northern counties were shown to select hybrid maturities with growing degree day (GDD°C) requirements more closely related to the environmentally available GDD compared to central and southern counties. This measure, termed "thermal overlap," ranged from complete 106% in northern counties to a mere 63% in southern counties. The relationship between thermal overlap and latitude was fit using split-line regression and a breakpoint of 42.8°N was identified. Over the 17-years, hybrid maturities shortened across the majority of the Midwest with only a minority of counties lengthening in select northern and southern areas. The annual change in maturity ranged from -5.4 to 4.1 GDD year[-1] with a median of -0.9 GDD year[-1] . The shortening of hybrid maturity contrasts with widespread expectations of hybrid maturity aligning with magnitude of warming. Factors other than thermal availability appear to more strongly impact farmer decision-making such as the benefit of shorter maturity hybrids on grain drying costs, direct delivery to ethanol biorefineries, field operability, labor constraints, and crop genetics availability. Prediction of hybrid choice under future climate scenarios must include climatic factors, physiological-genetic attributes, socio-economic, and operational constraints.}, }
@article {pmid33608652, year = {2021}, author = {Chano, V and Domínguez-Flores, T and Hidalgo-Galvez, MD and Rodríguez-Calcerrada, J and Pérez-Ramos, IM}, title = {Epigenetic responses of hare barley (Hordeum murinum subsp. leporinum) to climate change: an experimental, trait-based approach.}, journal = {Heredity}, volume = {126}, number = {5}, pages = {748-762}, pmid = {33608652}, issn = {1365-2540}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Epigenesis, Genetic ; *Hares ; *Hordeum/genetics ; }, abstract = {The impact of reduced rainfall and increased temperatures forecasted by climate change models on plant communities will depend on the capacity of plant species to acclimate and adapt to new environmental conditions. The acclimation process is mainly driven by epigenetic regulation, including structural and chemical modifications on the genome that do not affect the nucleotide sequence. In plants, one of the best-known epigenetic mechanisms is cytosine-methylation. We evaluated the impact of 30% reduced rainfall (hereafter "drought" treatment; D), 3 °C increased air temperature ("warming"; W), and the combination of D and W (WD) on the phenotypic and epigenetic variability of Hordeum murinum subsp. leporinum L., a grass species of high relevance in Mediterranean agroforestry systems. A full factorial experiment was set up in a savannah-like ecosystem located in southwestern Spain. H. murinum exhibited a large phenotypic plasticity in response to climatic conditions. Plants subjected to warmer conditions (i.e., W and WD treatments) flowered earlier, and those subjected to combined stress (WD) showed a higher investment in leaf area per unit of leaf mass (i.e., higher SLA) and produced heavier seeds. Our results also indicated that both the level and patterns of methylation varied substantially with the climatic treatments, with the combination of D and W inducing a clearly different epigenetic response compared to that promoted by D and W separately. The main conclusion achieved in this work suggests a potential role of epigenetic regulation of gene expression for the maintenance of homoeostasis and functional stability under future climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid33606836, year = {2021}, author = {Klöckner, CA and Sommer, LK}, title = {Visual art inspired by climate change-An analysis of audience reactions to 37 artworks presented during 21st UN climate summit in Paris.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {e0247331}, pmid = {33606836}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; Art ; Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Emotions ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Psychological ; Multilevel Analysis ; Paris ; Photic Stimulation/*methods ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Visual Perception ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {This paper suggests and tests a psychological model of environmental art perception and subsequent support for climate change policies. The model is based on findings from art perception and environmental psychology, which indicate that the response of the viewer to the artwork is (1) first an emotional reaction, which can be positive and/or negative. The emotional activation leads to (2) evaluation of the perceived quality of the artwork. This forms the first impression of the artwork the viewer gets, which then triggers (3) reflections on the artwork that are finally related to support for climate policies. The model test uses data collected at the ArtCOP21 that accompanied the 21st UN climate summit in Paris. At 37 connected events, the research team collected 883 audience responses with a brief quantitative paper-pencil questionnaire. The data were analyzed using a multilevel-structural equation modeling approach. Results support the suggested theoretical model. Moreover, the effect of reflections on the artwork on support for climate policies is moderated by environmental attitudes, meaning the lower the environmental attitudes, the higher the effect of reflections on policy support. Finally, artwork features like color, size, displaying something personal, etc., could be identified that had a significant relation to differences on the artwork level regarding the first impression of the artwork and the reflections elicited. The study shows that being confronted with climate change-related artwork relates at least in the short run to increased climate policy support, which is mostly channeled through an emotional activation with following cognitive processing. Features of the artwork relate to how strongly and which emotions are activated.}, }
@article {pmid33606798, year = {2021}, author = {Qin, M and Zhang, Y and Wan, S and Yue, Y and Cheng, Y and Zhang, B}, title = {Impact of climate change on "evaporation paradox" in province of Jiangsu in southeastern China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {e0247278}, pmid = {33606798}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Meteorological Concepts ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {Contrary to the common expectation that the reference evapotranspiration (ETo), which is an indicator of the atmospheric evaporation capability, increases in warming climate, the decline of the ETo has been reported worldwide, and this contradiction between the expected increasing ETo and the observed decreasing one is now termed the "evaporation paradox". Based on the updated meteorological data (1960-2019), we separately detected the spatiotemporal characteristics and the causes of the "evaporation paradox" in three subregions, namely Huaibei, Jianghuai, and Sunan, and throughout the entire province of Jiangsu in southeastern China. Different from the reported continuous unidirectional variations in the ETo, in the province of Jiangsu, it generally showed a decreasing trend before 1990 but followed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019, which led to the different characteristics of the "evaporation paradox" in the periods from 1960 to 1989, from 1990 to 2019, and from 1960 to 2019. In the first 30 years, the reduction of the wind speed (WS) was the main reason for the decreased ETo, which consequently gave rise to the "evaporation paradox" in spring and winter in the Huaibei region and only in winter in the two other subregions and throughout the entire province. We noticed that the "evaporation paradox" in spring in the Sunan region was expressed by the decreased daily mean air temperature (Tmean) and the increased ETo which was chiefly induced by the decreased relative humidity (RH) and the increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD). After 1990, the decreased WS also dominated the decreased ETo and resulted in the "evaporation paradox" in winter in the Jianghuai region. Furthermore, the decreased sunshine hour (SH) was the main factor influencing the decreased ETo, thereby inducing the "evaporation paradox" in summer and autumn in the Jianghuai region and only in autumn in the Huaibei region and throughout the whole province from 1990 to 2019. In the whole study period from 1960 to 2019, the decreased SH was also found to be responsible for the decreased ETo and for the "evaporation paradox" in summer in all the subregions and throughout the whole province. However, regarding the "evaporation paradox" in autumn, in winter, and in the entire year in the Huaibei region and throughout the whole province, the observed decreased ETo was largely due to the reduced WS from 1960 to 2019. In summary, in addition to the air temperature, the ETo has shifted due to the other meteorological variables (especially the WS, the SH, and the VPD) and shaped the unique spatiotemporal characteristics of the "evaporation paradox" in the province of Jiangsu in southeastern China. Moreover, future studies and simulations addressing the regional climate change and hydrological cycles should take account of the changeable key meteorological variables in different subregions and seasons of the province of Jiangsu.}, }
@article {pmid33606718, year = {2021}, author = {Duplisea, DE and Roux, MJ and Hunter, KL and Rice, J}, title = {Fish harvesting advice under climate change: A risk-equivalent empirical approach.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {e0239503}, pmid = {33606718}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture/*methods/trends ; Canada ; Climate Change/economics ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Fishes ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Sustainable Development/economics/trends ; }, abstract = {The rate of climate change (CC) has accelerated to the point where it now affects the mid- to long-term sustainability of fishing strategies. Therefore, it is important to consider practical and effective ways to incorporate CC into fisheries advice so that the advice can be considered conditioned to CC. We developed a model to characterise the empirical relationship between a variable affected by climate and fish production. We then used model projections as a foundation for a risk analysis of CC effects on harvesting of Greenland halibut Reinhardtius hippoglossoides in the Gulf of St Lawrence, Canada. The risk-based approach quantified a) the relative change in risk of a status quo fishing strategy under various CC scenarios, and b) the change in fishery exploitation rates required to achieve a management objective over a specified time period at a level of risk considered acceptable (risk equivalent fishery exploitation advice). This empirical approach can be used to develop risk-based advice for any other external variable that affects stock production in addition to climate-related variables and it can be applied in most situations where there is an index of stock biomass and fisheries catch. Shifting the focus from process-based understanding of the responses of fish stocks to CC to quantification of how CC-contributed uncertainty can alter the risks associated with different fishing strategies and/or management options, can ensure timely delivery of robust scientific advice for fisheries under non-stationary environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid33603246, year = {2021}, author = {Cai, W and Ng, B and Geng, T and Wu, L and Santoso, A and McPhaden, MJ}, title = {Addendum: Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {591}, number = {7849}, pages = {E14-E15}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-021-03261-4}, pmid = {33603246}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid33603119, year = {2021}, author = {Crozier, LG and Burke, BJ and Chasco, BE and Widener, DL and Zabel, RW}, title = {Climate change threatens Chinook salmon throughout their life cycle.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {222}, pmid = {33603119}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Databases, Factual ; *Endangered Species ; *Life Cycle Stages ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Salmon/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Widespread declines in Atlantic and Pacific salmon (Salmo salar and Oncorhynchus spp.) have tracked recent climate changes, but managers still lack quantitative projections of the viability of any individual population in response to future climate change. To address this gap, we assembled a vast database of survival and other data for eight wild populations of threatened Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). For each population, we evaluated climate impacts at all life stages and modeled future trajectories forced by global climate model projections. Populations rapidly declined in response to increasing sea surface temperatures and other factors across diverse model assumptions and climate scenarios. Strong density dependence limited the number of salmon that survived early life stages, suggesting a potentially efficacious target for conservation effort. Other solutions require a better understanding of the factors that limit survival at sea. We conclude that dramatic increases in smolt survival are needed to overcome the negative impacts of climate change for this threatened species.}, }
@article {pmid33600768, year = {2021}, author = {Zeng, Y and Friess, DA and Sarira, TV and Siman, K and Koh, LP}, title = {Global potential and limits of mangrove blue carbon for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {1737-1743.e3}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2021.01.070}, pmid = {33600768}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Despite the outsized role of mangrove forests in sustaining biodiversity, ecosystem function, and local livelihoods, the protection of these vital habitats through blue carbon financing has been limited.[1][,][2] Here, we quantify the extent of this missed conservation and financial opportunity, showing that the protection of ∼20% of the world's mangrove forests (2.6 Mha) can be funded through carbon financing. Of these investible areas, 1.1-1.3 Mha can be financially sustainable over a 30-year time frame based on carbon prices of US$5-9.4 t[-1]CO2e. This contributes up to 29.8 MtCO2e year[-1] and yields a return on investment of ∼US$3.7 billion per year. Our results point toward a disproportionately large potential of blue carbon finance that can be leveraged to meet national-level climate mitigation goals, particularly if combined with other conservation interventions that further safeguard carbon stocks and biodiversity in these irreplaceable forests. Robust information on return on investment highlights the potential for currently underutilized tropical coastal carbon credit projects.}, }
@article {pmid33599930, year = {2021}, author = {Ganji, F and Nasseri, M}, title = {System dynamics approaches to assess the impacts of climate change on surface water quality and quantity: case study of Karoun River, Iran.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {24}, pages = {31327-31339}, pmid = {33599930}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Iran ; *Rivers ; *Water Quality ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The aim of this research is to gain a better understanding of the effects of climate change with a comprehensive and dynamic perspective. Therefore, by using the System Dynamics (SD) approach to simulate the effects of climate change on the quality and quantity of the Karoun River and regarding the water supply and demand systems in the region and their feedback relations, a model was developed in Vensim. CGCM3 outputs under A2, B1, and A1B emission scenarios have been used to investigate the effects of climate change on both the quality/quantity of the water resources system. Also, to determine the effects of climate change on agricultural demand, the water requirement of selected crops for the next period (2015-2050) has been calculated via CROPWAT model. The results show that the maximum and minimum temperature and evaporation will increase. The results of the developed SD model show that if the current development process continues under all three climate change scenarios, the system will be able to meet the domestic, industrial, and environmental demand. However, the supply of agricultural demand will be deficient. Also, the average EC value in Ahvaz station under three emission scenarios has increased more than 21%, compared to the 15-year average. The average pH value did not change much. Then, several proposed management scenarios were evaluated to improve system performance. The results show that the scenario of optimal operation of upstream dams has the best performance. However, due to the unrealistic growing trend, despite applying this scenario, the development of the agricultural sector will fail down after a few years. Therefore, to reach a long-term solution to the problem of water shortage, the growth trend of this sector for the next period should be reviewed in light of the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33596265, year = {2021}, author = {Toriyama, J and Hashimoto, S and Osone, Y and Yamashita, N and Tsurita, T and Shimizu, T and Saitoh, TM and Sawano, S and Lehtonen, A and Ishizuka, S}, title = {Estimating spatial variation in the effects of climate change on the net primary production of Japanese cedar plantations based on modeled carbon dynamics.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {e0247165}, pmid = {33596265}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Carbon/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Cryptomeria/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; Japan ; }, abstract = {Spatiotemporal prediction of the response of planted forests to a changing climate is increasingly important for the sustainable management of forest ecosystems. In this study, we present a methodology for estimating spatially varying productivity in a planted forest and changes in productivity with a changing climate in Japan, with a focus on Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) as a representative tree species of this region. The process-based model Biome-BGC was parameterized using a plant trait database for Japanese cedar and a Bayesian optimization scheme. To compare productivity under historical (1996-2000) and future (2096-2100) climatic conditions, the climate scenarios of two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) were used in five global climate models (GCMs) with approximately 1-km resolution. The seasonality of modeled fluxes, namely gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange, and soil respiration, improved after two steps of parameterization. The estimated net primary production (NPP) of stands aged 36-40 years under the historical climatic conditions of the five GCMs was 0.77 ± 0.10 kgC m-2 year-1 (mean ± standard deviation), in accordance with the geographical distribution of forest NPP estimated in previous studies. Under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the mean NPP of the five GCMs increased by 0.04 ± 0.07 and 0.14 ± 0.11 kgC m-2 year-1, respectively. The increases in annual NPP were small in the southwestern region because of the decreases in summer NPP and the small increases in winter NPP under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, Japanese cedar was at risk in the southwestern region, in accordance with previous studies, and monitoring and silvicultural practices should be modified accordingly.}, }
@article {pmid33595918, year = {2021}, author = {Martínez-López, O and Koch, JB and Martínez-Morales, MA and Navarrete-Gutiérrez, D and Enríquez, E and Vandame, R}, title = {Reduction in the potential distribution of bumble bees (Apidae: Bombus) in Mesoamerica under different climate change scenarios: Conservation implications.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {9}, pages = {1772-1787}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15559}, pmid = {33595918}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellowship/ ; 470477//Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog&#xed;a/ ; 291333//Secretar&#xed;a de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnolog&#xed;a/ ; JE016//Comisi&#xf3;n Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad/ ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Bees ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; }, abstract = {Bumble bees are an ecologically and economically important group of pollinating insects worldwide. Global climate change is predicted to affect bumble bee ecology including habitat suitability and geographic distribution. Our study aims to estimate the impact of projected climate change on 18 Mesoamerican bumble bee species. We used ecological niche modeling (ENM) using current and future climate emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathway 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and models (CCSM4, HadGEM2-AO, and MIROC-ESM-CHEM). Regardless of the scenario and model applied, our results suggest that all bumble bee species are predicted to undergo a reduction in their potential distribution and habitat suitability due to projected climate change. ENMs based on low emission scenarios predict a distribution loss ranging from 7% to 67% depending on the species for the year 2050. Furthermore, we discovered that the reduction of bumble bee geographic range shape will be more evident at the margins of their distribution. The reduction of suitable habitat is predicted to be accompanied by a 100-500 m upslope change in altitude and 1-581 km shift away from the current geographic centroid of a species' distribution. On average, protected natural areas in Mesoamerica cover ~14% of each species' current potential distribution, and this proportion is predicted to increase to ~23% in the high emission climate change scenarios. Our models predict that climate change will reduce Mesoamerican bumble bee habitat suitability, especially for rare species, by reducing their potential distribution ranges and suitability. The small proportion of current and future potential distribution falling in protected natural areas suggests that such areas will likely have marginal contribution to bumble bee habitat conservation. Our results have the capacity to inform stakeholders in designing effective landscape management for bumble bees, which may include developing restoration plans for montane pine oak forests habitats and native flowering plants.}, }
@article {pmid33594145, year = {2021}, author = {Schickele, A and Francour, P and Raybaud, V}, title = {European cephalopods distribution under climate-change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3930}, pmid = {33594145}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {In a context of increasing anthropogenic pressure, projecting species potential distributional shifts is of major importance for the sustainable exploitation of marine species. Despite their major economical (i.e. important fisheries) and ecological (i.e. central position in food-webs) importance, cephalopods literature rarely addresses an explicit understanding of their current distribution and the potential effect that climate change may induce in the following decades. In this study, we focus on three largely harvested and common cephalopod species in Europe: Octopus vulgaris, Sepia officinalis and Loligo vulgaris. Using a recently improved species ensemble modelling framework coupled with five atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, we modelled their contemporary and potential future distributional range over the twenty-first century. Independently of global warming scenarios, we observed a decreasing in the suitability of environmental conditions in the Mediterranean Sea and the Bay of Biscay. Conversely, we projected a rapidly increasing environmental suitability in the North, Norwegian and Baltic Seas for all species. This study is a first broad scale assessment and identification of the geographical areas, fisheries and ecosystems impacted by climate-induced changes in cephalopods distributional range.}, }
@article {pmid33594112, year = {2021}, author = {Verschuur, J and Li, S and Wolski, P and Otto, FEL}, title = {Climate change as a driver of food insecurity in the 2007 Lesotho-South Africa drought.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3852}, pmid = {33594112}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate-induced food production shocks, like droughts, can cause food shortages and price spikes, leading to food insecurity. In 2007, a synchronous crop failure in Lesotho and South Africa-Lesotho's sole trading partner-led to a period of severe food insecurity in Lesotho. Here, we use extreme event attribution to assess the role of climate change in exacerbating this drought, going on to evaluate sensitivity of synchronous crop failures to climate change and its implications for food security in Lesotho. Climate change was found to be a critical driver that led to the 2007 crisis in Lesotho, aggravating an ongoing decline in food production in the country. We show how a fragile agricultural system in combination with a large trade-dependency on a climatically connected trading partner can lead to a nonlinear response to climate change, which is essential information for building a climate-resilient food-supply system now and in the future.}, }
@article {pmid33594059, year = {2021}, author = {Stewart, M and Carleton, WC and Groucutt, HS}, title = {Climate change, not human population growth, correlates with Late Quaternary megafauna declines in North America.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {965}, pmid = {33594059}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Archaeology ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; Geography ; Humans ; Mammoths/physiology ; Mastodons/physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; North America ; Oxygen Isotopes ; *Population Growth ; Regression Analysis ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The disappearance of many North American megafauna at the end of the Pleistocene is a contentious topic. While the proposed causes for megafaunal extinction are varied, most researchers fall into three broad camps emphasizing human overhunting, climate change, or some combination of the two. Understanding the cause of megafaunal extinctions requires the analysis of through-time relationships between climate change and megafauna and human population dynamics. To do so, many researchers have used summed probability density functions (SPDFs) as a proxy for through-time fluctuations in human and megafauna population sizes. SPDFs, however, conflate process variation with the chronological uncertainty inherent in radiocarbon dates. Recently, a new Bayesian regression technique was developed that overcomes this problem-Radiocarbon-dated Event-Count (REC) Modelling. Here we employ REC models to test whether declines in North American megafauna species could be best explained by climate changes, increases in human population densities, or both, using the largest available database of megafauna and human radiocarbon dates. Our results suggest that there is currently no evidence for a persistent through-time relationship between human and megafauna population levels in North America. There is, however, evidence that decreases in global temperature correlated with megafauna population declines.}, }
@article {pmid33593164, year = {2021}, author = {Moreno-Tarín, S and Pina, T and Domínguez, M}, title = {Worlds apart, drawn together: Bears, penguins and biodiversity in climate change cartoons.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {384-399}, doi = {10.1177/0963662521992508}, pmid = {33593164}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {This study shows how cartoonists use iconic and stereotypical animals in their works to reflect society's knowledge about the effects of climate change. Studying 1022 climate change cartoons including depictions of animals, we noticed that there is very little biodiversity depicted in cartoons. Cartoonists generally avoid using animals indigenous to their own countries; this point is especially true regarding the low presence of insects and other invertebrates. This text also encourages cartoonists to adhere to some recommendations to improve climate change communication. These guidelines are (1) using indigenous wildlife, (2) depicting invertebrate wildlife, (3) improving their knowledge about the biogeographical distribution of each species to avoid spreading misconceptions and (4) developing climate change communication from a positive point of view, appealing to potential improvements against the climate crisis, both for humans and for the rest of the species.}, }
@article {pmid33592481, year = {2021}, author = {Wondmagegn, BY and Xiang, J and Dear, K and Williams, S and Hansen, A and Pisaniello, D and Nitschke, M and Nairn, J and Scalley, B and Xiao, A and Jian, L and Tong, M and Bambrick, H and Karnon, J and Bi, P}, title = {Increasing impacts of temperature on hospital admissions, length of stay, and related healthcare costs in the context of climate change in Adelaide, South Australia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {773}, number = {}, pages = {145656}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145656}, pmid = {33592481}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Aged ; *Climate Change ; Health Care Costs ; Hospitals ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Length of Stay ; South Australia ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: A growing number of studies have investigated the effect of increasing temperatures on morbidity and health service use. However, there is a lack of studies investigating the temperature-attributable cost burden.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This study examines the relationship of daily mean temperature with hospital admissions, length of hospital stay (LoS), and costs; and estimates the baseline temperature-attributable hospital admissions, and costs and in relation to warmer climate scenarios in Adelaide, South Australia.<br><br>METHOD: A daily time series analysis using distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) was used to explore exposure-response relationships and to estimate the aggregated burden of hospital admissions for conditions associated with temperatures (i.e. renal diseases, mental health, diabetes, ischaemic heart diseases and heat-related illnesses) as well as the associated LoS and costs, for the baseline period (2010-2015) and different future climate scenarios in Adelaide, South Australia.<br><br>RESULTS: During the six-year baseline period, the overall temperature-attributable hospital admissions, LoS, and associated costs were estimated to be 3915 cases (95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 235, 7295), 99,766&#xa0;days (95% eCI: 14,484, 168,457), and AU$159 million (95% eCI: 18.8, 269.0), respectively. A climate scenario consistent with RCP8.5 emissions, and including projected demographic change, is estimated to lead to increases in heat-attributable hospital admissions, LoS, and costs of 2.2% (95% eCI: 0.5, 3.9), 8.4% (95% eCI: 1.1, 14.3), and 7.7% (95% eCI: 0.3, 13.3), respectively by mid-century.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is already a substantial temperature-attributable impact on hospital admissions, LoS, and costs which are estimated to increase due to climate change and an increasing aged population. Unless effective climate and public health interventions are put into action, the costs of treating temperature-related admissions will be high.}, }
@article {pmid33589602, year = {2021}, author = {Yang, J and Zhou, M and Ren, Z and Li, M and Wang, B and Liu, L and Ou, CQ and Yin, P and Sun, J and Tong, S and Wang, H and Zhang, C and Wang, J and Guo, Y and Liu, Q}, title = {Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1039}, pmid = {33589602}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology/*mortality ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; China/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Computer Simulation ; Educational Status ; Female ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Lung Diseases/epidemiology/*mortality ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Models, Statistical ; Public Health/*trends ; Survival Analysis ; }, abstract = {Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2-3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4-4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5-9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0-1.2%) and 3.6% (-0.5-7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33588159, year = {2021}, author = {Hafezi, M and Stewart, RA and Sahin, O and Giffin, AL and Mackey, B}, title = {Evaluating coral reef ecosystem services outcomes from climate change adaptation strategies using integrative system dynamics.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {285}, number = {}, pages = {112082}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112082}, pmid = {33588159}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Bayes Theorem ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Coral reef ecosystems provide a broad spectrum of essential ecological, economic and cultural services for Small Island Developing State (SIDS) communities. However, coral reef communities are increasingly threatened by the adverse impacts of human activities at both global and local scales. This study aims to develop an integrated dynamic assessment framework to evaluate coral reef conditions under different adaptation and climate change scenarios, and their consequential economic impacts in the small island community of Port Resolution on Tanna Island in Vanuatu. Our assessment framework follows a sequential multilayered modelling approach that uses System Dynamics (SD) coupled with Bayesian Network (BN) modelling to deal with the complexity and dynamicity of socioeconomic and environmental systems, and impacts from trans-discipline variables. The BN incorporated existing data and expert knowledge to project the future conditions of coral reefs under different scenario settings, and to parametrise and quantify the SD model where the existing data and information was insufficient. The SD was then used to simulate the dynamic relationship between coral reef condition and the economic benefits derived from its ecosystem services under different climate change (i.e. RCPs) and management scenarios through to 2070. Our findings show that sustainable community-based conservation management strategies are key to preserving the flow of coral reef ecosystem services under RCP 2.6 and 6.0. Importantly, we demonstrate that the implementation of an integrated portfolio of management strategies better protects ecosystem services provided by coral reefs and maximises the total economic benefits achieved over the long-term despite a temporary and short-term economic loss due to high initial capital investments and income reduction due to fishing and tourism restrictions.}, }
@article {pmid33586971, year = {2021}, author = {Amasawa, E and Yamanishi, T and Nakatani, J and Hirao, M and Sato, S}, title = {Climate Change Implications of Bio-Based and Marine-Biodegradable Plastic: Evidence from Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyhexanoate).}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {55}, number = {5}, pages = {3380-3388}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.0c06612}, pmid = {33586971}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {3-Hydroxybutyric Acid ; *Biodegradable Plastics ; Caproates ; Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Waste Management ; }, abstract = {Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyhexanoate), PHBH or PHBHHx, is a novel bio-based polymer that is biodegradable in both soil and marine environments. While bio-based and biodegradability are often celebrated features to mitigate environmental problems of plastics, their life cycle environmental impacts contain uncertainties that are yet to be fully understood. To develop effective introduction schemes for PHBH, this study assessed the life cycle climate change implications of PHBH. We computed the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and fossil resource consumption of produce bags and spoons composed of PHBH and their fossil-based alternatives based on industrial-scale data. The products were assessed against 10 end-of-life scenarios for commercial plastics. As a result, the cradle-to-gate GHG of PHBH ranged between 0.32 and 16.5 kgCO2e/kg-PHBH depending on the land-use change assumed for the biomass production. The product-based comparative analysis presented that PHBH spoons have lower cradle-to-grave GHG emissions over their fossil-based alternatives but not with produce bags because PHBH spoons have a smaller GHG per functional unit than that of its fossil counterpart. The end-of-life scenario analysis conveyed that PHBH should be introduced to a region with a plastic waste management system that avoids methane generation and facilitates energy recovery.}, }
@article {pmid33586512, year = {2021}, author = {Dadhich, JP and Smith, JP and Iellamo, A and Suleiman, A}, title = {Climate Change and Infant Nutrition: Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Milk Formula Sold in Selected Asia Pacific Countries.}, journal = {Journal of human lactation : official journal of International Lactation Consultant Association}, volume = {37}, number = {2}, pages = {314-322}, doi = {10.1177/0890334421994769}, pmid = {33586512}, issn = {1552-5732}, mesh = {Animals ; Breast Feeding ; Carbon Footprint ; Climate Change ; Female ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Infant ; Milk ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There is growing recognition that current food systems and policies are environmentally unsustainable. There is an identified need to integrate sustainability objectives into national food policy and dietary recommendations.<br><br>RESEARCH AIMS: To (1) describe exploratory estimates of greenhouse gas emission factors for all infant and young child milk formula products and (2) estimate national greenhouse gas emission association with commercial milk formulas sold in selected countries in the Asia Pacific region.<br><br>METHOD: We used a secondary data analysis descriptive design incorporating a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) concepts and methodology to estimate kg CO2 eq. emissions per kg of milk formula, using greenhouse gas emission factors for milk powder, vegetable oils, and sugars identified from a literature review. Proportions of ingredients were calculated using FAO Codex Alimentarius guidance on milk formula products. Estimates were calculated for production and processing of individual ingredients from cradle to factory gate. Annual retail sales data for 2012-2017 was sourced from Euromonitor International for six purposively selected countries; Australia, South Korea, China, Malaysia, India, Philippines.<br><br>RESULTS: Annual emissions for milk formula products ranged from 3.95-4.04 kg CO2 eq. Milk formula sold in the six countries in 2012 contributed 2,893,030 tons CO2 eq. to global greenhouse gas emissions. Aggregate emissions were highest for products (e.g., toddler formula), which dominated sales growth. Projected 2017 emissions for milk formula retailed in China alone were 4,219,052 tons CO2 eq.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Policies, programs and investments to shift infant and young child diets towards less manufactured milk formula and more breastfeeding are "Triple Duty Actions" that help improve dietary quality and population health and improve the sustainability of the global food system.}, }
@article {pmid33586110, year = {2021}, author = {Sarkar, UK and Roy, K and Karnatak, G and Naskar, M and Puthiyottil, M and Baksi, S and Lianthuamluaia, L and Kumari, S and Ghosh, BD and Das, BK}, title = {Reproductive environment of the decreasing Indian river shad in Asian inland waters: disentangling the climate change and indiscriminative fishing threats.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {23}, pages = {30207-30218}, pmid = {33586110}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {NICRA//Indian Council of Agricultural Research/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Female ; Fisheries ; Humans ; India ; Reproduction ; *Rivers ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The regional climate has significantly warmed with erratically declining annual rainfall and intensified downpour within a narrower span of monsoon months, which led to an increased trophic state (≈algae) in most inland waters. Freshwater clupeids vitally control the aquatic food chain by grazing on algae. Despite increasing food availability, IUCN Red List® revealed 16 freshwater clupeids with a decreasing population trend. We investigated one such species' reproductive dependencies, Gudusia chapra (Indian river shad), in the lower Gangetic drainage (India) under a mixed context of climate change and overfishing. Monthly rainfall (≥ 60-100 mm) and water temperature (≥ 31-32 °C) are key breeding cues for females. The regional climate seems inclined to fulfill these through the significant part of the breeding season, and indeed the species has maintained consistent breeding phenology over 20 years. Other breeding thresholds relevant to fishing include size at first maturity (≥ 6.8 cm; reduced by ~ 25-36%) and pre-spawning girth (Girthspawn50 ≥ 7 cm; first record). Girthspawn50 is a proxy of the minimum mesh size requirement of fishing nets to allow safe passage of "gravid" females (+ 22% bulged abdomen) and breed. The operational fishing nets (3-10 cm mesh) probably have been indulged in indiscriminative fishing of gravid females for generations. Under a favorably changing climate and food availability, existing evidence suggests a fishery-induced evolution in regional females (to circumvent such mesh sizes) through earlier maturation/puberty at smaller sizes. It could be an early warning sign of population collapse (smaller females → lessening fecundity → fewer offspring). Overfishing seemed to be a bigger threat than climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33584833, year = {2020}, author = {Anderson, J and Song, BH}, title = {Plant adaptation to climate change - Where are we?.}, journal = {Journal of systematics and evolution}, volume = {58}, number = {5}, pages = {533-545}, pmid = {33584833}, issn = {1674-4918}, support = {R15 GM122029/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses critical challenges for population persistence in natural communities, agriculture and environmental sustainability, and food security. In this review, we discuss recent progress in climatic adaptation in plants. We evaluate whether climate change exerts novel selection and disrupts local adaptation, whether gene flow can facilitate adaptive responses to climate change, and if adaptive phenotypic plasticity could sustain populations in the short term. Furthermore, we discuss how climate change influences species interactions. Through a more in-depth understanding of these eco-evolutionary dynamics, we will increase our capacity to predict the adaptive potential of plants under climate change. In addition, we review studies that dissect the genetic basis of plant adaptation to climate change. Finally, we highlight key research gaps, ranging from validating gene function, to elucidating molecular mechanisms, expanding research systems from model species to other natural species, testing the fitness consequences of alleles in natural environments, and designing multifactorial studies that more closely reflect the complex and interactive effects of multiple climate change factors. By leveraging interdisciplinary tools (e.g., cutting-edge omics toolkits, novel ecological strategies, newly-developed genome editing technology), researchers can more accurately predict the probability that species can persist through this rapid and intense period of environmental change, as well as cultivate crops to withstand climate change, and conserve biodiversity in natural systems.}, }
@article {pmid33584457, year = {2020}, author = {Li, LMW and Mei, D and Li, WQ and Ito, K}, title = {Dialectical Versus Linear Thinking Shapes People's Anticipation of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {623591}, pmid = {33584457}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Dialectical thinking refers to a constellation of beliefs that consist of expectation of change, tolerance of contradiction, and holism. The current research explored whether dialectical thinking would affect people's anticipation of climate change, which has been propagated globally. Study 1 compared the responses between Chinese participants, representing people from cultures that promote dialectical thinking, and North American participants, representing people from cultures that promote linear thinking. The results showed that Chinese participants demonstrated a stronger non-linear pattern regarding the anticipation of climate change as compared with American participants, in which Chinese participants were more likely to anticipate a stable trend but less likely to anticipate an increasing trend for global warming. Study 2 with a manipulation of dialectical and linear thinking was conducted and provided some generally supportive evidence for the causal relation between dialectical beliefs and the anticipation of climate change. Implications for cross-cultural environmental research and international climate change education programs were discussed.}, }
@article {pmid33583096, year = {2021}, author = {Bonachela, JA and Burrows, MT and Pinsky, ML}, title = {Shape of species climate response curves affects community response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {708-718}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13688}, pmid = {33583096}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {OCE-1426891//Division of Ocean Sciences/ ; DEB-1616821//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fishes ; Plankton ; }, abstract = {Understanding how community composition is reshaped by changing climate is important for interpreting and predicting patterns of community assembly through time or across space. Community composition often does not perfectly correspond to expectations from current environmental conditions, leading to community-climate mismatches. Here, we combine data analysis and theory development to explore how species climate response curves affect the community response to climate change. We show that strong mismatches between community and climate can appear in the absence of demographic delays or limited species pools. Communities simulated using species response curves showed temporal changes of similar magnitude to those observed in natural communities of fishes and plankton, suggesting no overall delays in community change despite substantial unexplained variation from community assembly and other processes. Our approach can be considered as a null model that will be important to use when interpreting observed community responses to climate change and variability.}, }
@article {pmid33582962, year = {2021}, author = {Ogundari, K and Onyeaghala, R}, title = {The effects of climate change on African agricultural productivity growth revisited.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {23}, pages = {30035-30045}, pmid = {33582962}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Efficiency ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This paper analyzes the effects of climate change on African agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth and test whether agricultural TFP levels are converging in the region. The study uses cross-country balanced panel data covering 35 countries from 1981 to 2010 and a technological catching-up model based on the Ricardian analysis estimated by Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) regression. Historical country-wide rainfall and temperature are climate factors included in the model. Education, capital intensity, and arable land equipped with irrigation are other potential confounding variables in the regression. The empirical results show that levels of African agricultural TFP are converging over time, though the rate of convergence appears relatively slow in the region. We also find that rain significantly increases agricultural TFP growth, but temperature does not affect the study's African agricultural TFP growth. Other results show that education, capital intensity, and arable land equipped with irrigation significantly increased agricultural TFP growth.}, }
@article {pmid33582337, year = {2021}, author = {Ge, W and Deng, L and Wang, F and Han, J}, title = {Quantifying the contributions of human activities and climate change to vegetation net primary productivity dynamics in China from 2001 to 2016.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {773}, number = {}, pages = {145648}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145648}, pmid = {33582337}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Vegetation is an important component of the terrestrial ecosystem, driven by climate change and human activities. Quantifying the relative contributions of climate change and anthropogenic activities to vegetation dynamics are essential to cope with global climate change. In this paper, the relative contributions of anthropogenic activities and climate change to net primary productivity (NPP) in China were analyzed by a two-step methodology based on the residual trend analysis (RESTREND). Firstly, the unaltered natural vegetation only affected by climate change (Vclimate) and the vegetation affected by climate change and human activities (Vclimate+human) were separated by the multi-temporal land use land cover (LULC) data. Secondly, RESTREND was applied to NPP of Vclimate and Vclimate+human, respectively, to calculate contributions of climatic factors and human activities to vegetation growth. Results revealed that NPP exhibited a significant increase with 3.13 g C m[-2] yr[-1] from 2001 to 2016 in China. Climate change and human activities both made favorable impacts on vegetation growth during the study period. Besides, with the separation of Vclimate and Vclimate+human, contributions of climatic factors to vegetation changes increased from 1.57 to 1.88 g C m[-2] yr[-1], with the proportion of 60.06%. While contributions of human activities to NPP decreased from 1.56 to 1.25 g C m[-2] yr[-1], with the proportion of 39.94%. Moreover, the average contributions of precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, and other climatic factors to NPP over the entire country were 0.72, 0.24, 0.61, and 0.31 g C m[-2] yr[-1]. Precipitation played a decisive role in vegetation changes in arid and semi-arid regions, temperature was the dominant factor for alpine vegetation dynamics, and solar radiation was beneficial to vegetation growth in most areas of China.}, }
@article {pmid33581089, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, YR and Li, YP and Yang, X and Huang, GH and Li, YF}, title = {Development of an integrated multivariate trend-frequency analysis method: Spatial-temporal characteristics of climate extremes under global warming for Central Asia.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {195}, number = {}, pages = {110859}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.110859}, pmid = {33581089}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Asia ; Climate ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Temperature and precipitation are the two most critical climate variables and their extreme states have more severe impacts than average states on both human society and natural ecosystem. In this study, an integrated multivariate trend-frequency analysis (IMTFA) approach is developed for the risk assessment of climate extremes under the global warming. Through incorporating multiple time series analysis techniques (i.e., M-K test, Sen's slope estimator and Pettitt test) and copula function into a general framework, IMTFA is capable not only of analyzing the temporal trends and change points of extreme temperatures and precipitations, but also of quantifying their univariate and multivariate risks. IMTFA is applied to the Central Asia with considering a long-term (1881-2018) observation data. Our findings are: (i) significant wetting and warming trends were occurred in the Central Asia over past one hundred years, where 42.5%, 59.4% and 79.2% stations have change points for extreme precipitations, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively; (ii) the occurrences of extreme climate events show obviously spatial heterogeneity, where the highest risks of meteorological drought, flood and frost events are occurred in the southwest, southeast and northeast regions, respectively; (iii) global warming significantly affects the intensities and frequencies of extreme precipitations and temperatures, and their univariate and multivariate risks are intensified in the most regions of Central Asia. The above findings can provide more valuable information for risk assessment and disaster adaptation of climate extremes in Central Asia.}, }
@article {pmid33581071, year = {2021}, author = {Dasandi, N and Graham, H and Lampard, P and Jankin Mikhaylov, S}, title = {Engagement with health in national climate change commitments under the Paris Agreement: a global mixed-methods analysis of the nationally determined contributions.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {e93-e101}, pmid = {33581071}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; *Environmental Policy ; Gross Domestic Product ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Natural Language Processing ; *Population Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Instituted under the Paris Agreement, nationally determined contributions (NDCs) outline countries' plans for mitigating and adapting to climate change. They are the primary policy instrument for protecting people's health in the face of rising global temperatures. However, evidence on engagement with health in the NDCs is scarce. In this study, we aimed to examine how public health is incorporated in the NDCs, and how different patterns of engagement might be related to broader inequalities and tensions in global climate politics.<br><br>METHODS: We analysed the NDCs in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change registry submitted by 185 countries. Using content analysis and natural language processing (NLP) methods, we developed measures of health engagement. Multivariate regression analyses examined whether country-level factors (eg, population size, gross domestic product [GDP], and climate-related exposures) were associated with greater health engagement. Using NLP methods, we compared health engagement with other climate-related challenges (ie, economy, energy, and agriculture) and examined broader differences in the keyword terms used in countries with high and low health engagement in their NDCs.<br><br>FINDINGS: Countries that did not mention health in their NDCs were clustered in high-income countries, whereas greater health engagement was concentrated in low-income and middle-income countries. Having a low GDP per capita and being a small island developing state were associated with higher levels of health engagement. In addition, higher levels of population exposure to temperature change and ambient air pollution were associated with more health coverage included in a country's NDC. Variation in health engagement was greater than for other climate-related issues and reflected wider differences in countries' approaches to the NDCs.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: A focus on health in the NDCs follows broader patterns of global inequalities. Poorer and climate-vulnerable countries that contribute least to climate change are more likely to engage with health in their NDCs, while richer countries focus on non-health sectors in their NDCs, such as energy and the economy.<br><br>FUNDING: This work was in part funded through an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust and supported by The Economic and Social Research Council.}, }
@article {pmid33581070, year = {2021}, author = {Tennison, I and Roschnik, S and Ashby, B and Boyd, R and Hamilton, I and Oreszczyn, T and Owen, A and Romanello, M and Ruyssevelt, P and Sherman, JD and Smith, AZP and Steele, K and Watts, N and Eckelman, MJ}, title = {Health care's response to climate change: a carbon footprint assessment of the NHS in England.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {e84-e92}, pmid = {33581070}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {UL1 TR001863/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; 209734/Z/17/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Carbon Footprint/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; England ; Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Health Care Sector ; Humans ; State Medicine/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Transportation ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change threatens to undermine the past 50 years of gains in public health. In response, the National Health Service (NHS) in England has been working since 2008 to quantify and reduce its carbon footprint. This Article presents the latest update to its greenhouse gas accounting, identifying interventions for mitigation efforts and describing an approach applicable to other health systems across the world.<br><br>METHODS: A hybrid model was used to quantify emissions within Scopes 1, 2, and 3 of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, as well as patient and visitor travel emissions, from 1990 to 2019. This approach complements the broad coverage of top-down economic modelling with the high accuracy of bottom-up data wherever available. Available data were backcasted or forecasted to cover all years. To enable the identification of measures to reduce carbon emissions, results were disaggregated by organisation type.<br><br>FINDINGS: In 2019, the health service's emissions totalled 25 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, a reduction of 26% since 1990, and a decrease of 64% in the emissions per inpatient finished admission episode. Of the 2019 footprint, 62% came from the supply chain, 24% from the direct delivery of care, 10% from staff commute and patient and visitor travel, and 4% from private health and care services commissioned by the NHS.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: This work represents the longest and most comprehensive accounting of national health-care emissions globally, and underscores the importance of incorporating bottom-up data to improve the accuracy of top-down modelling and enabling detailed monitoring of progress as health systems act to reduce emissions.<br><br>FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.}, }
@article {pmid33580644, year = {2020}, author = {Jegasothy, R and Sengupta, P and Dutta, S and Jeganathan, R}, title = {Climate change and declining fertility rate in Malaysia: the possible connexions.}, journal = {Journal of basic and clinical physiology and pharmacology}, volume = {32}, number = {5}, pages = {911-924}, doi = {10.1515/jbcpp-2020-0236}, pmid = {33580644}, issn = {2191-0286}, mesh = {*Birth Rate ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Developing Countries ; Fertility ; Humans ; Malaysia/epidemiology ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an incessant global phenomenon and has turned contentious in the present century. Malaysia, a developing Asian country, has also undergone significant vicissitudes in climate, which has been projected with significant deviations in forthcoming decades. As per the available studies, climate changes may impact on the fertility, either via direct effects on the gonadal functions and neuroendocrine regulations or via several indirect effects on health, socioeconomic status, demeaning the quality of food and water. Malaysia is already observing a declining trend in the Total fertility rate (TFR) over the past few decades and is currently recorded below the replacement level of 2.1 which is insufficient to replace the present population. Moreover, climate changes reportedly play a role in the emergence and cessation of various infectious diseases. Besides its immediate effects, the long-term effects on health and fertility await to be unveiled. Despite the huge magnitude of the repercussion of climate changes in Malaysia, research that can explain the exact cause of the present reduction in fertility parameters in Malaysia or any measures to preserve the national population is surprisingly very scarce. Thus, the present review aims to elucidate the possible missing links by which climate changes are impairing fertility status in Malaysia.}, }
@article {pmid33578223, year = {2021}, author = {Gulcebi, MI and Bartolini, E and Lee, O and Lisgaras, CP and Onat, F and Mifsud, J and Striano, P and Vezzani, A and Hildebrand, MS and Jimenez-Jimenez, D and Junck, L and Lewis-Smith, D and Scheffer, IE and Thijs, RD and Zuberi, SM and Blenkinsop, S and Fowler, HJ and Foley, A and ,  and Sisodiya, SM}, title = {Climate change and epilepsy: Insights from clinical and basic science studies.}, journal = {Epilepsy &amp; behavior : E&amp;B}, volume = {116}, number = {}, pages = {107791}, pmid = {33578223}, issn = {1525-5069}, mesh = {Animals ; COVID-19/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Death, Sudden ; Epilepsy/*epidemiology/therapy ; Global Health/*trends ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Humidity/adverse effects ; Public Health/*trends ; Sleep Deprivation/epidemiology/therapy ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change is with us. As professionals who place value on evidence-based practice, climate change is something we cannot ignore. The current pandemic of the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has demonstrated how global crises can arise suddenly and have a significant impact on public health. Global warming, a chronic process punctuated by acute episodes of extreme weather events, is an insidious global health crisis needing at least as much attention. Many neurological diseases are complex chronic conditions influenced at many levels by changes in the environment. This review aimed to collate and evaluate reports from clinical and basic science about the relationship between climate change and epilepsy. The keywords climate change, seasonal variation, temperature, humidity, thermoregulation, biorhythm, gene, circadian rhythm, heat, and weather were used to search the published evidence. A number of climatic variables are associated with increased seizure frequency in people with epilepsy. Climate change-induced increase in seizure precipitants such as fevers, stress, and sleep deprivation (e.g. as a result of more frequent extreme weather events) or vector-borne infections may trigger or exacerbate seizures, lead to deterioration of seizure control, and affect neurological, cerebrovascular, or cardiovascular comorbidities and risk of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy. Risks are likely to be modified by many factors, ranging from individual genetic variation and temperature-dependent channel function, to housing quality and global supply chains. According to the results of the limited number of experimental studies with animal models of seizures or epilepsy, different seizure types appear to have distinct susceptibility to seasonal influences. Increased body temperature, whether in the context of fever or not, has a critical role in seizure threshold and seizure-related brain damage. Links between climate change and epilepsy are likely to be multifactorial, complex, and often indirect, which makes predictions difficult. We need more data on possible climate-driven altered risks for seizures, epilepsy, and epileptogenesis, to identify underlying mechanisms at systems, cellular, and molecular levels for better understanding of the impact of climate change on epilepsy. Further focussed data would help us to develop evidence for mitigation methods to do more to protect people with epilepsy from the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33577303, year = {2021}, author = {Tu, Q and Parvatker, A and Garedew, M and Harris, C and Eckelman, M and Zimmerman, JB and Anastas, PT and Lam, CH}, title = {Electrocatalysis for Chemical and Fuel Production: Investigating Climate Change Mitigation Potential and Economic Feasibility.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {55}, number = {5}, pages = {3240-3249}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.0c07309}, pmid = {33577303}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Biofuels ; Catalysis ; *Climate Change ; Feasibility Studies ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {The manufacture of goods from oil, coal, or gas to everyday consumer products comprises in more or less all cases at least one catalytic step. Compared to conventional hydrothermal catalysis, electrocatalysis possesses the advantage of mild operational conditions and high selectivity, yet the potential energy savings and climate change mitigation have rarely been assessed. This study conducted a life cycle assessment (LCA) for the electrocatalytic oxidation of crude glycerol to produce lactic acid, one of the most common platform chemicals. The LCA results demonstrated a 31% reduction in global warming potential (GWP) compared to the benchmark (bio- and chemocatalytic) processes. Additionally, electrocatalysis yielded a synergetic potential to mitigate climate change depending on the scenario. For example, electrocatalysis combined with a low-carbon-intensity grid can reduce GWP by 57% if the process yields lactic acid and lignocellulosic biofuel as compared to a conventional fossil-based system with functionally equivalent products. This illustrates the potential of electrocatalysis as an important contributor to climate change mitigation across multiple industries. A technoeconomic analysis (TEA) for electrocatalytic lactic acid production indicated considerable challenges in economic feasibility due to the significant upfront capital cost. This challenge could be largely addressed by enabling dual redox processing to produce separate streams of renewable chemicals and biofuels simultaneously.}, }
@article {pmid33575382, year = {2020}, author = {Farrokhi, M and Khankeh, HR and Amanat, N and Kamali, M and Fathi, M}, title = {Psychological aspects of climate change risk perception: A content analysis in Iranian context.}, journal = {Journal of education and health promotion}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {346}, pmid = {33575382}, issn = {2277-9531}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Risk perception is an important predictor to mitigate climate change effects which can produce mental health consequences such as anxiety and depression. For developing policies of climate risk adaptation, awareness of public attitudes, beliefs, and perception is essential. At this study, researchers tried to focus on the often "unseen" psychological aspects of climate change.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: A qualitative approach was done with a consistent content analysis method. The study consisted of 33 participants including ordinary people and experts in disasters and climate change. Purposeful sampling was adopted until data saturation. The data collection was performed through in-depth and semi-structured interviews. All interviews were transcribed after listening again and again and reading several times to catch an overall understanding of the interviews.<br><br>RESULTS: The main theme of the study was "Complexity nature of climate change risk perception" and related categories including "the Mental health dimension," "the Cognitive dimension" and "Interaction of imposed components." The structure of the research community strongly reflected effects of cultural and religious factors in all aspects of community life. Participants' life experiences of extreme events were associated to their perception of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Risk perception is multifactorial and complicate and should clearly be understood to improve community participation to manage climate change-related risks. We propose that authorities and related managers should pay attention to it as a priority. This may assist in developing research on public mental health practices.}, }
@article {pmid33574801, year = {2020}, author = {Newsham, KK and Davey, ML and Hopkins, DW and Dennis, PG}, title = {Regional Diversity of Maritime Antarctic Soil Fungi and Predicted Responses of Guilds and Growth Forms to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {615659}, pmid = {33574801}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {We report a metabarcoding study documenting the fungal taxa in 29 barren fellfield soils sampled from along a 1,650 km transect encompassing almost the entire maritime Antarctic (60-72°S) and the environmental factors structuring the richness, relative abundance, and taxonomic composition of three guilds and growth forms. The richness of the lichenised fungal guild, which accounted for 19% of the total fungal community, was positively associated with mean annual surface air temperature (MASAT), with an increase of 1.7 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) of lichenised fungi per degree Celsius rise in air temperature. Soil Mn concentration, MASAT, C:N ratio, and pH value determined the taxonomic composition of the lichenised guild, and the relative abundance of the guild was best predicted by soil Mn concentration. There was a 3% decrease in the relative abundance of the saprotrophic fungal guild in the total community for each degree Celsius rise in air temperature, and the OTU richness of the guild, which accounted for 39% of the community, was negatively associated with Mn concentration. The taxonomic composition of the saprotrophic guild varied with MASAT, pH value, and Mn, NH4 [+]-N, and SO4 [2-] concentrations. The richness of the yeast community, which comprised 3% of the total fungal community, was positively associated with soil K concentration, with its composition being determined by C:N ratio. In contrast with a similar study in the Arctic, the relative abundance and richness of lichenised fungi declined between 60°S and 69°S, with those of saprotrophic Agaricales also declining sharply in soils beyond 63°S. Basidiomycota, which accounted for 4% of reads, were much less frequent than in vegetated soils at lower latitudes, with the Ascomycota (70% of reads) being the dominant phylum. We conclude that the richness, relative abundance, and taxonomic composition of guilds and growth forms of maritime Antarctic soil fungi are influenced by air temperature and edaphic factors, with implications for the soils of the region as its climate changes during the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid33572636, year = {2021}, author = {Akello, J and Ortega-Beltran, A and Katati, B and Atehnkeng, J and Augusto, J and Mwila, CM and Mahuku, G and Chikoye, D and Bandyopadhyay, R}, title = {Prevalence of Aflatoxin- and Fumonisin-Producing Fungi Associated with Cereal Crops Grown in Zimbabwe and Their Associated Risks in a Climate Change Scenario.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {33572636}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {OPP1007117//Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {In most sub-Saharan African countries, staple cereal grains harbor many fungi and some produce mycotoxins that negatively impact health and trade. Maize and three small grain cereals (sorghum, pearl millet, and finger millet) produced by smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe during 2016 and 2017 were examined for fungal community structure, and total aflatoxin (AF) and fumonisin (FM) content. A total of 800 maize and 180 small grain samples were collected at harvest and during storage from four agroecological zones. Fusarium spp. dominated the fungi associated with maize. Across crops, Aspergillusflavus constituted the main Aspergillus spp. Small grain cereals were less susceptible to both AF and FM. AF (52%) and FM (89%) prevalence was higher in maize than in small grains (13-25% for AF and 0-32% for FM). Less than 2% of small grain samples exceeded the EU regulatory limit for AF (4 µg/kg), while <10% exceeded the EU regulatory limit for FM (1000 µg/kg). For maize, 28% and 54% of samples exceeded AF and FM Codex guidance limits, respectively. Higher AF contamination occurred in the drier and hotter areas while more FM occurred in the wetter year. AF exposure risk assessment revealed that small grain consumption posed low health risks (≤0.02 liver cancer cases/100,000 persons/year) while maize consumption potentially caused higher liver cancer rates of up to 9.2 cases/100,000 persons/year depending on the locality. Additionally, FM hazard quotients from maize consumption among children and adults were high in both years, but more so in a wet year than a dry year. Adoption of AF and FM management practices throughout the maize value chain coupled with policies supporting dietary diversification are needed to protect maize consumers in Zimbabwe from AF- and FM-associated health effects. The higher risk of health burden from diseases associated with elevated concentration of mycotoxins in preferred maize during climate change events can be relieved by increased consumption of small grains.}, }
@article {pmid33571284, year = {2021}, author = {Lloyd, SJ and Chalabi, Z}, title = {Climate change, hunger and rural health through the lens of farming styles: An agent-based model to assess the potential role of peasant farming.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {e0246788}, pmid = {33571284}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Farms ; Food Supply ; Humans ; *Hunger ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Rural Health ; }, abstract = {Undernutrition is a major contributor to the global-burden of disease, and global-level health impact models suggest that climate change-mediated reductions in food quantity and quality will negatively affect it. These models, however, capture just some of the processes that will shape future nutrition. We adopt an alternative standpoint, developing an agent-based model in which producer-consumer smallholders practice different 'styles of farming' in the global food system. The model represents a hypothetical rural community in which 'orphan' (subsistence) farmers may develop by adopting an 'entrepreneurial' style (highly market-dependent) or by maintaining a 'peasant' style (agroecology). We take a first look at the question: how might patterns of farming styles-under various style preference, climate, policy, and price transmission scenarios-impact on hunger and health-supporting conditions (incomes, work, inequality, 'real land productivity') in rural areas? imulations without climate change or agricultural policy found that style preference patterns influence production, food price, and incomes, and there were trade-offs between them. For instance, entrepreneurial-oriented futures had the highest production and lowest prices but were simultaneously those in which farms tended towards crisis. Simulations with climate change and agricultural policy found that peasant-orientated agroecology futures had the highest production, prices equal to or lower than those under entrepreneurial-oriented futures, and better supported rural health. There were, however, contradictory effects on nutrition, with benefits and harms for different groups. Collectively the findings suggest that when attempting to understand how climate change may impact on future nutrition and health, patterns of farming styles-along with the fates of the households that practice them-matter. These issues, including the potential role of peasant farming, have been neglected in previous global-level climate-nutrition modelling but go to the heart of current debates on the future of farming: thus, they should be given more prominence in future work.}, }
@article {pmid33571190, year = {2021}, author = {Nnko, HJ and Gwakisa, PS and Ngonyoka, A and Sindato, C and Estes, AB}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on geographical distribution of three primary vectors of African Trypanosomiasis in Tanzania's Maasai Steppe: G. m. morsitans, G. pallidipes and G. swynnertoni.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {e0009081}, pmid = {33571190}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/parasitology/*physiology ; Livestock/parasitology/physiology ; Seasons ; Tanzania/epidemiology ; Trypanosoma ; Trypanosomiasis, African/epidemiology/*parasitology ; Tsetse Flies/parasitology/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In the Maasai Steppe, public health and economy are threatened by African Trypanosomiasis, a debilitating and fatal disease to livestock (African Animal Trypanosomiasis -AAT) and humans (Human African Trypanosomiasis-HAT), if not treated. The tsetse fly is the primary vector for both HAT and AAT and climate is an important predictor of their occurrence and the parasites they carry. While understanding tsetse fly distribution is essential for informing vector and disease control strategies, existing distribution maps are old and were based on coarse spatial resolution data, consequently, inaccurately representing vector and disease dynamics necessary to design and implement fit-for-purpose mitigation strategies. Also, the assertion that climate change is altering tsetse fly distribution in Tanzania lacks empirical evidence. Despite tsetse flies posing public health risks and economic hardship, no study has modelled their distributions at a scale needed for local planning. This study used MaxEnt species distribution modelling (SDM) and ecological niche modeling tools to predict potential distribution of three tsetse fly species in Tanzania's Maasai Steppe from current climate information, and project their distributions to midcentury climatic conditions under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenarios. Current climate results predicted that G. m. morsitans, G. pallidipes and G swynnertoni cover 19,225 km2, 7,113 km2 and 32,335 km2 and future prediction indicated that by the year 2050, the habitable area may decrease by up to 23.13%, 12.9% and 22.8% of current habitable area, respectively. This information can serve as a useful predictor of potential HAT and AAT hotspots and inform surveillance strategies. Distribution maps generated by this study can be useful in guiding tsetse fly control managers, and health, livestock and wildlife officers when setting surveys and surveillance programs. The maps can also inform protected area managers of potential encroachment into the protected areas (PAs) due to shrinkage of tsetse fly habitats outside PAs.}, }
@article {pmid33570773, year = {2021}, author = {Roos, N and Kovats, S and Hajat, S and Filippi, V and Chersich, M and Luchters, S and Scorgie, F and Nakstad, B and Stephansson, O and , }, title = {Maternal and newborn health risks of climate change: A call for awareness and global action.}, journal = {Acta obstetricia et gynecologica Scandinavica}, volume = {100}, number = {4}, pages = {566-570}, doi = {10.1111/aogs.14124}, pmid = {33570773}, issn = {1600-0412}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Infant Health ; Infant, Newborn ; *Maternal Health ; Pregnancy ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change represents one of the largest global health threats of the 21st century with immediate and long-term consequences for the most vulnerable populations, especially in the poorest countries with the least capacity to adapt to climate change. Pregnant women and newborns are increasingly being recognized as vulnerable populations in the context of climate change. The effects can be direct or indirect through heat stress, extreme weather events and air pollution, potentially impacting both the immediate and long-term health of pregnant women and newborns through a broad range of mechanisms. In 2008, the World Health Organization passed a resolution during the 61st World Health Assembly, recognizing the need for research to identify strategies and health-system strengthening to mitigate the effects of climate change on health. Climate adaptation plans need to consider vulnerable populations such as pregnant women and neonates and a broad multisectoral approach to improve overall resilience of societies.}, }
@article {pmid33570448, year = {2021}, author = {Dash, SP and Dipankar, P and Burange, PS and Rouse, BT and Sarangi, PP}, title = {Climate change: how it impacts the emergence, transmission, resistance and consequences of viral infections in animals and plants.}, journal = {Critical reviews in microbiology}, volume = {47}, number = {3}, pages = {307-322}, doi = {10.1080/1040841X.2021.1879006}, pmid = {33570448}, issn = {1549-7828}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/virology ; COVID-19/complications/etiology/immunology/*transmission ; Chiroptera/virology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/complications/etiology/immunology/*transmission ; Crops, Agricultural/virology ; Disease Reservoirs/virology ; Disease Vectors/classification ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Humidity ; Plant Diseases/immunology/*virology ; Primate Diseases/transmission/virology ; Primates ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Virus Diseases/complications/etiology/immunology/*transmission ; }, abstract = {The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has made us wonder what led to its occurrence and what can be done to avoid such events in the future. As we document, one changing circumstance that is resulting in the emergence and changing the expression of viral diseases in both plants and animals is climate change. Of note, the rapidly changing environment and weather conditions such as excessive flooding, droughts, and forest fires have raised concerns about the global ecosystem's security, sustainability, and balance. In this review, we discuss the main consequences of climate change and link these to how they impact the appearance of new viral pathogens, how they may facilitate transmission between usual and novel hosts, and how they may also affect the host's ability to manage the infection. We emphasize how changes in temperature and humidity and other events associated with climate change influence the reservoirs of viral infections, their transmission by insects and other intermediates, their survival outside the host as well the success of infection in plants and animals. We conclude that climate change has mainly detrimental consequences for the emergence, transmission, and outcome of viral infections and plead the case for halting and hopefully reversing this dangerous event.}, }
@article {pmid33570171, year = {2021}, author = {Bowden, V and Nyberg, D and Wright, C}, title = {"I don't think anybody really knows": Constructing reflexive ignorance in climate change adaptation.}, journal = {The British journal of sociology}, volume = {72}, number = {2}, pages = {397-411}, doi = {10.1111/1468-4446.12818}, pmid = {33570171}, issn = {1468-4446}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Policy ; }, abstract = {Responding to the existential threat of climate change is often seen as requiring greater reflexivity. Imbued with notions of resilience and reflection, reflexivity is assumed to contribute to pro-environmental change. However, as the need to manage climate impacts becomes more immediate, political struggles over climate adaptation have become increasingly apparent. These impacts occur most often within local communities, in the context of competing economic interests and differing interpretations of climate science. Thus while it is increasingly difficult to deny climate change, conflicting priorities can lead to ignorance. In these circumstances, how communities build and share knowledge, and negotiate responses is central. Based on a study of a vulnerable region in Australia, we identify three processes through which the local community mobilized to disrupt local climate change adaptation. These included emphasizing uncertainty about the science of climate change, encouraging fear about property prices, and repositioning property owners as victims of climate adaptation policy. We argue that this response to climate adaptation constitutes the production of reflexive ignorance, which reinforces skepticism around scientific authority and defends particular economic interests.}, }
@article {pmid33569174, year = {2021}, author = {Lassoued, J and Padín, XA and Comeau, LA and Bejaoui, N and Pérez, FF and Babarro, JMF}, title = {The Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis: responses to climate change scenarios as a function of the original habitat.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {coaa114}, pmid = {33569174}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {The impact of simulated seawater acidification and warming conditions on specimens of the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis locally adapted to very distinct, widely separated sites in the Mediterranean Sea (Tunisia) and Atlantic Sea (Galicia, NW Spain) was evaluated in relation to key behavioural and eco-physiological parameters. Over the 2-month exposure to the experimental conditions, mussels were fed optimally to ensure that there are no synergistic interactions between climate change drivers and energetic status of the individuals. In general, regardless of origin (Atlantic or Mediterranean), the mussels were rather resilient to acidification for most of the parameters considered and they were able to grow in strongly acidified seawater through an increased feeding activity. However, shell strength decreased (40%) consistently in both mussel populations held in moderately and highly acidified seawater. The observed reduction in shell strength was not explained by slight alterations in organic matter, shell thickness or aragonite:calcite ratio. The combined effects of high acidification and warming on the key response of byssus strength caused a strong decline in mussel performance, although only in Galician mussels, in which the valve opening time decreased sharply as well as condition index (soft tissue state) and shell growth. By contrast, the observed negative effect of highly acidified scenario on the strength of Tunisian mussel shells was (partly but not totally) counterbalanced by the higher seawater temperature. Eco-physiological and behavioural interactions in mussels in relation to climate change are complex, and future scenarios for the ecology of the species and also the feasibility of cultivating them in Atlantic and Mediterranean zones are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid33568289, year = {2021}, author = {Hamann, E and Denney, D and Day, S and Lombardi, E and Jameel, MI and MacTavish, R and Anderson, JT}, title = {Review: Plant eco-evolutionary responses to climate change: Emerging directions.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {304}, number = {}, pages = {110737}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2020.110737}, pmid = {33568289}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Plant Physiological Phenomena/genetics ; Plants/*genetics ; Pollination ; }, abstract = {Contemporary climate change is exposing plant populations to novel combinations of temperatures, drought stress, [CO2] and other abiotic and biotic conditions. These changes are rapidly disrupting the evolutionary dynamics of plants. Despite the multifactorial nature of climate change, most studies typically manipulate only one climatic factor. In this opinion piece, we explore how climate change factors interact with each other and with biotic pressures to alter evolutionary processes. We evaluate the ramifications of climate change across life history stages,and examine how mating system variation influences population persistence under rapid environmental change. Furthermore, we discuss how spatial and temporal mismatches between plants and their mutualists and antagonists could affect adaptive responses to climate change. For example, plant-virus interactions vary from highly pathogenic to mildly facilitative, and are partly mediated by temperature, moisture availability and [CO2]. Will host plants exposed to novel, stressful abiotic conditions be more susceptible to viral pathogens? Finally, we propose novel experimental approaches that could illuminate how plants will cope with unprecedented global change, such as resurrection studies combined with experimental evolution, genomics or epigenetics.}, }
@article {pmid33567963, year = {2021}, author = {Su, Y and Hu, J}, title = {How did the top two greenhouse gas emitters depict climate change? A comparative analysis of the Chinese and US media.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {881-897}, doi = {10.1177/0963662521990846}, pmid = {33567963}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; United States ; }, abstract = {China and the United States are the world's top two greenhouse gas emitters. However, little is known as to the amount of attention the media in both countries have paid to the issue of climate change, and the ways in which their media framed the issue. To address both queries, this study analyzed the climate change coverage (N = 9,001) of the Chinese and US media, using a computational approach. Results revealed overall increases of attention to climate change in both countries' media from 2016 through 2019, whereas the Chinese witnessed a more evident increase after 2018. Moreover, the media in both countries tended to foster a sense of responsibilities rather than confining the issue to an episodic level. Furthermore, the US media highlighted political conflict and the catastrophic consequences of climate change, whereas the Chinese media highlighted public accountability and governance, as well as economic development and competitiveness.}, }
@article {pmid33566292, year = {2021}, author = {Khan, I and Lei, H and Shah, AA and Khan, I and Muhammad, I}, title = {Climate change impact assessment, flood management, and mitigation strategies in Pakistan for sustainable future.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {23}, pages = {29720-29731}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-021-12801-4}, pmid = {33566292}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Disasters ; *Floods ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {In recent years, flooding has not only disrupted social growth but has also hampered economic development. In many nations, this global epidemic has affected lives, property, and financial damage. Pakistan has experienced many floods in the past several years. Due to economic, social, and climate change, Pakistan is at risk of flooding. In order to overcome this problem, the institutions of the country have taken various measures. However, these measures are not sufficient enough to ensure the safety of communities and areas that are prone to disasters with a rapid onset. Hence, it is imperative to forecast future flood-related risks and take necessary measures to mitigate the adverse impacts and losses caused by floods. This article is aimed at exploring floods in Pakistan, analyze the adverse effects of floods on humans and the environment, and propose possible sustainable options for the future. The aqueduct flood analyzer software was used to examine the impact of floods on gross domestic product (GDP), urban damage, and people livelihood, with several years of flood protection plans. To adequately assess the future changes, various flood protection levels and three scenarios for each level of protection were employed, which represent the socio-economic and climate change. The findings revealed that if there is no flood protection, a 2-year flood has a 50% probability of flood occurrence in any given area and may cause no significant impact on GDP, population, and urban damage. Similarly, the probability of a flood occurrence in a five-year flood is 20%, which may cause the country's GDP about $20.4 billion, with 8.4 million population at risk and $1.4 billion urban damage. Furthermore, a 10-year flood has a 10% probability of flood occurrence and may affect the national GDP by $28.9 billion, with 11.9 million affected population and $2.4 billion urban damage in Pakistan. The government of Pakistan should devise appropriate climate change policies, improve disaster preparedness, build new dams, and update relevant departments to mitigate the adverse effects of flooding.}, }
@article {pmid33564324, year = {2020}, author = {Janssens, C and Havlík, P and Krisztin, T and Baker, J and Frank, S and Hasegawa, T and Leclère, D and Ohrel, S and Ragnauth, S and Schmid, E and Valin, H and Van Lipzig, N and Maertens, M}, title = {Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {829-835}, pmid = {33564324}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {International trade enables us to exploit regional differences in climate change impacts and is increasingly regarded as a potential adaptation mechanism. Here, we focus on hunger reduction through international trade under alternative trade scenarios for a wide range of climate futures. Under the current level of trade integration, climate change would lead to up to 55 million people who are undernourished in 2050. Without adaptation through trade, the impacts of global climate change would increase to 73 million people who are undernourished (+33%). Reduction in tariffs as well as institutional and infrastructural barriers would decrease the negative impact to 20 million (-64%) people. We assess the adaptation effect of trade and climate-induced specialization patterns. The adaptation effect is strongest for hunger-affected import-dependent regions. However, in hunger-affected export-oriented regions, partial trade integration can lead to increased exports at the expense of domestic food availability. Although trade integration is a key component of adaptation, it needs sensitive implementation to benefit all regions.}, }
@article {pmid33563369, year = {2021}, author = {Jalaludin, B and Morgan, GG}, title = {What does climate change have to do with bushfires?.}, journal = {Australian health review : a publication of the Australian Hospital Association}, volume = {45}, number = {1}, pages = {4-6}, doi = {10.1071/AHv45n1_ED3}, pmid = {33563369}, issn = {1449-8944}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fires/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; }, abstract = {A warming climate is increasing the duration of fire seasons and the risk of more extensive and intense bushfires. The Black Summer bushfires that occurred in Australia from September 2019 to early February 2020 were unprecedented in their scale and intensity. The fires led to loss of lives and homes, and widespread destruction of flora, fauna and ecosystems. Dense smoke from these catastrophic fires blanketed major cities and towns for weeks. A Commonwealth Royal Commission and two state inquiries provided recommendations for reducing the risk of future bushfires and for better disaster management processes to support the preparedness, relief, response and recovery to such megafires. While strategies to reduce the risk of bushfires and the damage to our biota and ecosystems are necessary and important, there is also an urgent need for mitigation strategies to reduce or prevent emission of greenhouse gases. If we are to minimise the planetary effects of a warming climate, we need to limit global warming to well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels and to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. This requires transformative thinking and action by our political leaders that builds on the Australian public and industry's willingness to play their part.}, }
@article {pmid33563368, year = {2021}, author = {Vardoulakis, S}, title = {Reflections on climate change and the Australian health system.}, journal = {Australian health review : a publication of the Australian Hospital Association}, volume = {45}, number = {1}, pages = {2-3}, doi = {10.1071/AHv45n1_ED2}, pmid = {33563368}, issn = {1449-8944}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Government Programs ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33562700, year = {2021}, author = {Pedersen, KM and Busch Isaksen, TM and Baker, MG and Seixas, N and Errett, NA}, title = {Climate Change Impacts and Workforce Development Needs in Federal Region X: A Qualitative Study of Occupational Health and Safety Professionals' Perceptions.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {33562700}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {P30 ES007033/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T42 OH008433/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Occupational Health ; Perception ; Qualitative Research ; Workforce ; Workplace ; }, abstract = {Climate change is considered one of the top health threats in the United States. This research sought to (1) to understand the perceptions of occupational health and safety (OHS) professionals regarding the impacts of climate-related hazards on OHS in Region X, and (2) to explore the ideas of these OHS professionals regarding the content of future training programs that would better prepare OHS professionals to identify and mitigate climate-related hazards in Region X. Key informant (KI) interviews with 17 OHS professionals familiar with the climate-related hazards and impacts to OHS in Region X were coded and thematically analyzed. Climate hazards, social and economic impacts from climate-related hazards, and sector-specific worker and workplace impacts from climate-related hazards were described as having interacting relationships that influenced worker health and safety impacts. KIs further described how workplace controls could be used to mitigate OHS impacts of climate-related hazards, and how training of the OHS workforce could influence the ability to successfully implement such controls. Our findings suggest that OHS impacts are sector-specific, influenced by social and economic factors, and can be mitigated through workplace controls designed and implemented by a trained OHS workforce. The findings from this work should inform future educational and training programming and additional research and translation activities in the region, while our approach can inform other regions as they develop regionally specific OHS climate change training and programming.}, }
@article {pmid33561446, year = {2021}, author = {Davis, C and Murphy, AK and Bambrick, H and Devine, GJ and Frentiu, FD and Yakob, L and Huang, X and Li, Z and Yang, W and Williams, G and Hu, W}, title = {A regional suitable conditions index to forecast the impact of climate change on dengue vectorial capacity.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {195}, number = {}, pages = {110849}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.110849}, pmid = {33561446}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Aedes ; Animals ; Australia ; China ; Climate Change ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; Humans ; Indonesia/epidemiology ; Mosquito Vectors ; Thailand ; Vietnam ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of dengue virus, and their geographic distributions are predicted to expand further with economic development, and in response to climate change. We aimed to estimate the impact of future climate change on dengue transmission through the development of a Suitable Conditions Index (SCI), based on climatic variables known to support vectorial capacity. We calculated the SCI based on various climate change scenarios for six countries in the Asia-Pacific region (Australia, China, Indonesia, The Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam).<br><br>METHODS: Monthly raster climate data (temperature and precipitation) were collected for the period January 2005 to December 2018 along with projected climate estimates for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4&#xb7;5, 6&#xb7;0 and 8&#xb7;5 emissions scenarios. We defined suitable temperature ranges for dengue transmission of between 17&#xb7;05-34&#xb7;61&#xa0;&#xb0;C for Ae. aegypti and 15&#xb7;84-31&#xb7;51&#xa0;&#xb0;C for Ae. albopictus and then developed a historical and predicted SCI based on weather variability to measure the expected geographic limits of dengue vectorial capacity. Historical and projected SCI values were compared through difference maps for the six countries.<br><br>FINDINGS: Comparing different emission scenarios across all countries, we found that most South East Asian countries showed either a stable pattern of high suitability, or a potential decline in suitability for both vectors from 2030 to 2070, with a declining pattern particularly evident for Ae. albopictus. Temperate areas of both China and Australia showed a less stable pattern, with both moderate increases and decreases in suitability for each vector in different regions between 2030 and 2070.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: The SCI will be a useful index for forecasting potential dengue risk distributions in response to climate change, and independently of the effects of human activity. When considered alongside additional correlates of infection such as human population density and socioeconomic development indicators, the SCI could be used to develop an early warning system for dengue transmission.}, }
@article {pmid33558621, year = {2021}, author = {Kapitza, S and Van Ha, P and Kompas, T and Golding, N and Cadenhead, NCR and Bal, P and Wintle, BA}, title = {Assessing biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change on regional avian biodiversity.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3304}, pmid = {33558621}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical variables that drive species' geographic distributions and indirectly through socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global consumption, production and climate. To date, no detailed analyses have been produced that assess the relative importance of, or interaction between, these direct and indirect climate change impacts on biodiversity at large scales. Here, we apply a new integrated modelling framework to quantify the relative influence of biophysical and socio-economically mediated impacts on avian species in Vietnam and Australia and we find that socio-economically mediated impacts on suitable ranges are largely outweighed by biophysical impacts. However, by translating economic futures and shocks into spatially explicit predictions of biodiversity change, we now have the power to analyse in a consistent way outcomes for nature and people of any change to policy, regulation, trading conditions or consumption trend at any scale from sub-national to global.}, }
@article {pmid33558563, year = {2021}, author = {Zografou, K and Swartz, MT and Adamidis, GC and Tilden, VP and McKinney, EN and Sewall, BJ}, title = {Species traits affect phenological responses to climate change in a butterfly community.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3283}, pmid = {33558563}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Pennsylvania ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Diverse taxa have undergone phenological shifts in response to anthropogenic climate change. While such shifts generally follow predicted patterns, they are not uniform, and interspecific variation may have important ecological consequences. We evaluated relationships among species' phenological shifts (mean flight date, duration of flight period), ecological traits (larval trophic specialization, larval diet composition, voltinism), and population trends in a butterfly community in Pennsylvania, USA, where the summer growing season has become warmer, wetter, and longer. Data were collected over 7-19 years from 18 species or species groups, including the extremely rare eastern regal fritillary Speyeria idalia idalia. Both the direction and magnitude of phenological change over time was linked to species traits. Polyphagous species advanced and prolonged the duration of their flight period while oligophagous species delayed and shortened theirs. Herb feeders advanced their flight periods while woody feeders delayed theirs. Multivoltine species consistently prolonged flight periods in response to warmer temperatures, while univoltine species were less consistent. Butterflies that shifted to longer flight durations, and those that had polyphagous diets and multivoltine reproductive strategies tended to decline in population. Our results suggest species' traits shape butterfly phenological responses to climate change, and are linked to important community impacts.}, }
@article {pmid33558232, year = {2021}, author = {Anderegg, WRL and Abatzoglou, JT and Anderegg, LDL and Bielory, L and Kinney, PL and Ziska, L}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {33558232}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Air Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; North America ; Plants ; Pollen/*physiology ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*epidemiology ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Airborne pollen has major respiratory health impacts and anthropogenic climate change may increase pollen concentrations and extend pollen seasons. While greenhouse and field studies indicate that pollen concentrations are correlated with temperature, a formal detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in continental pollen seasons is urgently needed. Here, we use long-term pollen data from 60 North American stations from 1990 to 2018, spanning 821 site-years of data, and Earth system model simulations to quantify the role of human-caused climate change in continental patterns in pollen concentrations. We find widespread advances and lengthening of pollen seasons (+20 d) and increases in pollen concentrations (+21%) across North America, which are strongly coupled to observed warming. Human forcing of the climate system contributed ∼50% (interquartile range: 19-84%) of the trend in pollen seasons and ∼8% (4-14%) of the trend in pollen concentrations. Our results reveal that anthropogenic climate change has already exacerbated pollen seasons in the past three decades with attendant deleterious effects on respiratory health.}, }
@article {pmid33558229, year = {2021}, author = {Titley, MA and Butchart, SHM and Jones, VR and Whittingham, MJ and Willis, SG}, title = {Global inequities and political borders challenge nature conservation under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {33558229}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; Endangered Species/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect ; Mammals ; *Political Systems ; }, abstract = {Underlying sociopolitical factors have emerged as important determinants of wildlife population trends and the effectiveness of conservation action. Despite mounting research into the impacts of climate change on nature, there has been little consideration of the human context in which these impacts occur, particularly at the global scale. We investigate this in two ways. First, by modeling the climatic niches of terrestrial mammals and birds globally, we show that projected species loss under climate change is greatest in countries with weaker governance and lower Gross Domestic Product, with loss of mammal species projected to be greater in countries with lower CO2 emissions. Therefore, climate change impacts on species may be disproportionately significant in countries with lower capacity for effective conservation and lower greenhouse gas emissions, raising important questions of international justice. Second, we consider the redistribution of species in the context of political boundaries since the global importance of transboundary conservation under climate change is poorly understood. Under a high-emissions scenario, we find that 35% of mammals and 29% of birds are projected to have over half of their 2070 climatic niche in countries in which they are not currently found. We map these transboundary range shifts globally, identifying borders across which international coordination might most benefit conservation and where physical border barriers, such as walls and fences, may be an overlooked obstacle to climate adaptation. Our work highlights the importance of sociopolitical context and the utility of a supranational perspective for 21st century nature conservation.}, }
@article {pmid33558040, year = {2021}, author = {Beyer, RM and Manica, A and Mora, C}, title = {Shifts in global bat diversity suggest a possible role of climate change in the emergence of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {767}, number = {}, pages = {145413}, pmid = {33558040}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *COVID-19 ; China/epidemiology ; *Chiroptera ; Climate Change ; Evolution, Molecular ; Genome, Viral ; Humans ; Laos ; Myanmar ; Phylogeny ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {Bats are the likely zoonotic origin of several coronaviruses (CoVs) that infect humans, including SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, both of which have caused large-scale epidemics. The number of CoVs present in an area is strongly correlated with local bat species richness, which in turn is affected by climatic conditions that drive the geographical distributions of species. Here we show that the southern Chinese Yunnan province and neighbouring regions in Myanmar and Laos form a global hotspot of climate change-driven increase in bat richness. This region coincides with the likely spatial origin of bat-borne ancestors of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2. Accounting for an estimated increase in the order of 100 bat-borne CoVs across the region, climate change may have played a key role in the evolution or transmission of the two SARS CoVs.}, }
@article {pmid33557397, year = {2021}, author = {Silveira, S and Kornbluh, M and Withers, MC and Grennan, G and Ramanathan, V and Mishra, J}, title = {Chronic Mental Health Sequelae of Climate Change Extremes: A Case Study of the Deadliest Californian Wildfire.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {33557397}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Child ; Climate Change ; *Depressive Disorder, Major/epidemiology/etiology ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Mental Health ; *Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/epidemiology ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Introduction. Weather-related disasters, such as wildfires exacerbated by a rise in global temperatures, need to be better studied in terms of their mental health impacts. This study focuses on the mental health sequelae of the deadliest wildfire in California to date, the Camp Fire of 2018. Methods. We investigated a sample of 725 California residents with different degrees of disaster exposure and measured mental health using clinically validated scales for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), major depressive disorder (MDD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Data were collected at a chronic time-point, six months post-wildfire. We used multiple regression analyses to predict the mental health outcomes based on self-reported fire exposure. Additionally, we included vulnerability and resilience factors in hierarchical regression analyses. Results. Our primary finding is that direct exposure to large scale fires significantly increased the risk for mental health disorders, particularly for PTSD and depression. Additionally, the inclusion of vulnerability and resilience factors in the hierarchical regression analyses led to the significantly improved prediction of all mental health outcomes. Childhood trauma and sleep disturbances exacerbated mental health symptoms. Notably, self-reported resilience had a positive effect on mental health, and mindfulness was associated with significantly lower depression and anxiety symptoms. Conclusion. Overall, our study demonstrated that climate-related extreme events, such as wildfires, can have severe mental illness sequelae. Moreover, we found that pre-existing stressful life events, resilient personality traits and lifestyle factors can play an important role in the prevalence of psychopathology after such disasters. Unchecked climate change projected for the latter half of this century may severely impact the mental wellbeing of the global population, and we must find ways to foster individual resiliency.}, }
@article {pmid33556773, year = {2021}, author = {Asakura, A}, title = {Crustaceans in changing climate: Global warming and invasion of tropical land hermit crabs (Crustacea: Decapoda: Anomura: Coenobitidae) into temperate area in Japan.}, journal = {Zoology (Jena, Germany)}, volume = {145}, number = {}, pages = {125893}, doi = {10.1016/j.zool.2021.125893}, pmid = {33556773}, issn = {1873-2720}, mesh = {Animals ; Anomura/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Introduced Species ; Japan ; }, abstract = {There is currently a strong scientific consensus that recent global change of climate, including the global warming, seriously damage ecosystems of both lands and oceans. Here, I review recent drastic northern expansion of distribution of tropical land hermit crabs (Coenobita) into temperate Japan. Seto Marine Biological Laboratory of Kyoto University has a long history (97 years) and has been conducting various programs of long-term monitoring survey on coastal biota. A part of the results is also introduced here. Seventeen species of land hermit crabs are known from tropical regions worldwide, and seven species are known in Japan, which are mainly distributed in tropical region of Japan. Recent intensive studies on coastal areas of Japan have shown that many juveniles and small individuals of land hermit crabs are found during warm season in temperate regions. The finding of the species that were identified by DNA analysis as Coenobita rugosus and C. purpureus might be an indication for the global warming effect. Further, I here introduce the model of northern limit of distribution proposed by Gorodkov (1986) which explains change of detailed structure of population toward the limit of distribution. Moreover, I here propose the model of stages of adaptation of tropical species to temperate zone through ecological and evolutional times. These two models are useful and helpful to understand the things happen in populations in the limit of distribution and, therefore, useful for conservation of species and biological communities.}, }
@article {pmid33556188, year = {2021}, author = {Jobe, JGD and Gedan, K}, title = {Species-specific responses of a marsh-forest ecotone plant community responding to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {102}, number = {4}, pages = {e03296}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.3296}, pmid = {33556188}, issn = {1939-9170}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Poaceae ; Salinity ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Ecotones are responsive to environmental change and pave a path for succession as they move across the landscape. We investigated the biotic and abiotic filters to species establishment on opposite ends of a tidal marsh-forest ecotone that is moving inland in response to sea level rise. We transplanted four plant species common to the ecotone to the leading or trailing edge of the migrating ecotone, with and without caging to protect them from ungulate herbivores. We found that species exhibited an individualistic response to abiotic and biotic pressures in this ecotone; three species performed better at the leading edge of the ecotone in the coastal forest, whereas one performed better at the trailing edge in the marsh. Specifically, grass species Phragmites australis and Panicum virgatum grew more in the low light and low salinity conditions of the leading edge of the ecotone (forest), whereas the shrub Iva frutescens grew better in the high light, high salinity conditions of the trailing edge of the ecotone (marsh). Furthermore, of the four species, only P. australis was affected by the biotic pressure of herbivory by an introduced ungulate, Cervus nippon, which greatly reduced its biomass and survival at the leading edge (forest). P. australis is an aggressive invasive species and has been observed to dominate in the wake of migrating marsh-forest ecotones. Our findings detail the role of lower salinity stress to promote and herbivory pressure to inhibit the establishment of P. australis during shifts of this ecotone, and also highlight an interaction between two nonnative species, P. australis and C. nippon. Understanding migration of the marsh-forest ecotone and the factors controlling P. australis establishment are critical for marsh conservation in the face of sea level rise. More generally, our findings support the conclusion that the abiotic and biotic filters of a migrating ecotone shape the resulting community.}, }
@article {pmid33555561, year = {2021}, author = {Moo-Llanes, DA}, title = {Inferring Distributional Shifts of Asian Giant Hornet Vespa mandarinia Smith in Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Neotropical entomology}, volume = {50}, number = {4}, pages = {673-676}, pmid = {33555561}, issn = {1678-8052}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Central America ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; North America ; South America ; *Wasps ; }, abstract = {Vespa mandarinia Smith is a species with native distribution in Asia and with the potential distribution of invasion in the Americas. We use ecological niche models to be able to predict their potential distribution in Asia and their projection in the Americas using KUENM in R in climate change scenarios. The ecological niche of V. mandarinia is potentially distributed in Asia and is expected with invasion potential in the east coast of USA, part of the México, Central America, and South America, while for 2050 it is projected with dispersion in North and Central of USA and rest of the Americas. The realized niche expanded in the Americas. Ecological niche modeling helps us infer the distribution of this species in Asia and its possible establishment of invasion in the USA, México, Central America, and South America.}, }
@article {pmid33555405, year = {2021}, author = {C R Ferreira, N and H Miranda, J and Cooke, R}, title = {Climate change and extreme events on drainage systems: numerical simulation of soil water in corn crops in Illinois (USA).}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {65}, number = {7}, pages = {1001-1013}, pmid = {33555405}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Illinois ; *Soil ; Water ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {The influence of climate conditions in the agricultural environment is important in evapotranspiration, water availability for plants and roots, and other processes. This research focuses on two aspects: (1) the effects of climate change on the occurrence of extreme events that may affect agricultural processes in a region in Illinois (USA), and (2) the effects of climate change on the soil water dynamics in a corn crop. Different climate scenarios developed by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, using a climate model with medium resolution-IPSL(CM5MR), provided input to simulate soil water dynamics in two fields with different drainage system layouts. The Hydrus model simulated surface flux and runoff. Results indicate that the variation of precipitation and temperature in the future may increase extreme events, representing a risk for agriculture. Hydrus simulations indicate different results accordingly to the drainage layout, suggesting that it may be necessary to make adjustments in drainage systems in the future. In general, surface flux and runoff will increase over time, and these changes are more related to extreme events than average values. Extreme event indices show vulnerability in agriculture and will be reflected in changes in the soil water dynamics, and may increase the climatic risk of corn production.}, }
@article {pmid33554089, year = {2021}, author = {}, title = {Climate change and COVID-19: global challenges and opportunities.}, journal = {EClinicalMedicine}, volume = {31}, number = {}, pages = {100738}, doi = {10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.100738}, pmid = {33554089}, issn = {2589-5370}, }
@article {pmid33551508, year = {2021}, author = {Cole, J and Dodds, K}, title = {Unhealthy geopolitics: can the response to COVID-19 reform climate change policy?.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {99}, number = {2}, pages = {148-154}, pmid = {33551508}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Pandemics ; Policy ; *Politics ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {The geopolitics of pandemics and climate change intersect. Both are complex and urgent problems that demand collective action in the light of their global and trans-boundary scope. In this article we use a geopolitical framework to examine some of the tensions and contradictions in global governance and cooperation that are revealed by the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We argue that the pandemic provides an early warning of the dangers inherent in weakened international cooperation. The world's states, with their distinct national territories, are reacting individually rather than collectively to the COVID-19 pandemic. Many countries have introduced extraordinary measures that have closed, rather than opened up, international partnership and cooperation. Border closures, restrictions on social mixing, domestic purchase of public health supplies and subsidies for local industry and commerce may offer solutions at the national level but they do not address the global strategic issues. For the poorest countries of the world, pandemics join a list of other challenges that are exacerbated by pressures of scarce resources, population density and climate disruption. COVID-19's disproportionate impact on those living with environmental stresses, such as poor air quality, should guide more holistic approaches to the geopolitical intersection of public health and climate change. By discussing unhealthy geopolitics, we highlight the urgent need for a coordinated global response to addressing challenges that cannot be approached unilaterally.}, }
@article {pmid33551504, year = {2021}, author = {Dasandi, N and Graham, H and Lampard, P and Jankin Mikhaylov, S}, title = {Intergovernmental engagement on health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {99}, number = {2}, pages = {102-111B}, pmid = {33551504}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Fossil Fuels ; Gross Domestic Product ; *Healthy Lifestyle ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant Mortality ; *Life Expectancy ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To examine countries' engagement with the health impacts of climate change in their formal statements to intergovernmental organizations, and the factors driving engagement.<br><br>METHODS: We obtained the texts of countries' annual statements in United Nations (UN) general debates from 2000 to 2019 and their nationally determined contributions at the Paris Agreement in 2016. To measure countries' engagement, we used a keyword-in-context text search with relevant search terms to count the total number of references to the relationship of health to climate change. We used a machine learning model (random forest predictions) to identify the most important country-level predictors of engagement. The predictors included political and economic factors, health outcomes, climate change-related variables and membership of political negotiating groups in the UN.<br><br>FINDINGS: For both UN general debate statements and nationally determined contributions, low- and middle-income countries discussed the health impacts of climate change much more than did high-income countries. The most important predictors of engagement were health outcomes (infant mortality, maternal deaths, life expectancy), countries' income levels (gross domestic product per capita), and fossil fuel consumption. Membership of political negotiating groups (such as the Group of 77 and Small Island Developing States) was a less important predictor.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our analysis indicated a higher engagement in countries that carry the heaviest climate-related health burdens, but lack necessary resources to address the impacts of climate change. These countries are shouldering responsibility for reminding the global community of the implications of climate change for people's health.}, }
@article {pmid33549623, year = {2021}, author = {Bhat, SA and Bashir, O and Bilal, M and Ishaq, A and Din Dar, MU and Kumar, R and Bhat, RA and Sher, F}, title = {Impact of COVID-related lockdowns on environmental and climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {195}, number = {}, pages = {110839}, pmid = {33549623}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Brazil ; *COVID-19 ; China ; Cities ; Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control ; Environmental Monitoring ; France ; Humans ; India ; Italy ; Pandemics ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Spain ; }, abstract = {The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a major challenge from human health perspective. The alarming exponential increase in the transmission and fatality rates related to this disease has brought the world to a halt so as to cope up with its stern consequences. This has led to the imposition of lockdown across the globe to prevent the further spread of this disease. This lock down brought about drastic impacts at social and economic fronts. However, it also posed some positive impacts on environment as well particularly in the context of air quality due to reduction in concentrations of particulate matter (PM), NO2 and CO across the major cities of the globe as indicated by several research organizations. In China, Italy, France and Spain, there were about 20-30% reduction in NO2 emission while in USA 30% reduction in NO2 emission were observed. Compared to previous year, there was 11.4% improvement in the air quality in China. Drastic reductions in NO (-77.3%), NO2 (-54.3%) and CO (-64.8%) (negative sign indicating a decline) concentrations were observed in Brazil during partial lockdown compared to the five year monthly mean. In India there were about -51.84, -53.11, -17.97, -52.68, -30.35, 0.78 and -12.33% reduction in the concentration of PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, O3 and NH3 respectively. This article highlights the impact of lockdown on the environment and also discusses the pre and post lockdown air pollution scenario across major cities of the world. Several aspect of environment such as air, water, noise pollution and waste management during, pre and post lockdown scenario were studied and evaluated comprehensively. This research would therefore serve as a guide to environmentalist, administrators and frontline warriors for fighting our the way to beat this deadly disease and minimize its long term implications on health and environment.}, }
@article {pmid33548706, year = {2021}, author = {Leung, JYS and Russell, BD and Coleman, MA and Kelaher, BP and Connell, SD}, title = {Long-term thermal acclimation drives adaptive physiological adjustments of a marine gastropod to reduce sensitivity to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {771}, number = {}, pages = {145208}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145208}, pmid = {33548706}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Gastropoda ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Ocean warming is predicted to challenge the persistence of a variety of marine organisms, especially when combined with ocean acidification. While temperature affects virtually all physiological processes, the extent to which thermal history mediates the adaptive capacity of marine organisms to climate change has been largely overlooked. Using populations of a marine gastropod (Turbo undulatus) with different thermal histories (cool vs. warm), we compared their physiological adjustments following exposure (8-week) to ocean acidification and warming. Compared to cool-acclimated counterparts, we found that warm-acclimated individuals had a higher thermal threshold (i.e. increased CTmax by 2 °C), which was unaffected by the exposure to ocean acidification and warming. Thermal history also strongly mediated physiological effects, where warm-acclimated individuals adjusted to warming by conserving energy, suggested by lower respiration and ingestion rates, energy budget (i.e. scope for growth) and O:N ratio. After exposure to warming, warm-acclimated individuals had higher metabolic rates and greater energy budget due to boosted ingestion rates, but such compensatory feeding disappeared when combined with ocean acidification. Overall, we suggest that thermal history can be a critical mediator of physiological performance under future climatic conditions. Given the relatively gradual rate of global warming, marine organisms may be better able to adaptively adjust their physiology to future climate than what short-term experiments currently convey.}, }
@article {pmid33545433, year = {2021}, author = {Menzel, F and Feldmeyer, B}, title = {How does climate change affect social insects?.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {46}, number = {}, pages = {10-15}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2021.01.005}, pmid = {33545433}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Insecta ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity, already causing sharp declines of populations and species. In some social insect species we already see advanced phenologies, changes in distribution ranges, and changes in abundance Rafferty (2017) and Diamond et al. (2017). Physiologically, social insects are no different from solitary insects, but they possess a number of characteristics that distinguish their response to climate change. Here, we examine these traits, which might enable them to cope better with climate change than solitary insects, but only in the short term. In addition, we discuss how climate change will alter biotic interactions and ecosystem functions, and how it will affect invasive social insects.}, }
@article {pmid33542137, year = {2021}, author = {Riddell, EA and Iknayan, KJ and Hargrove, L and Tremor, S and Patton, JL and Ramirez, R and Wolf, BO and Beissinger, SR}, title = {Exposure to climate change drives stability or collapse of desert mammal and bird communities.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {371}, number = {6529}, pages = {633-636}, doi = {10.1126/science.abd4605}, pmid = {33542137}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Extreme Heat ; *Mammals ; }, abstract = {High exposure to warming from climate change is expected to threaten biodiversity by pushing many species toward extinction. Such exposure is often assessed for all taxa at a location from climate projections, yet species have diverse strategies for buffering against temperature extremes. We compared changes in species occupancy and site-level richness of small mammal and bird communities in protected areas of the Mojave Desert using surveys spanning a century. Small mammal communities remained remarkably stable, whereas birds declined markedly in response to warming and drying. Simulations of heat flux identified different exposure to warming for birds and mammals, which we attribute to microhabitat use. Estimates from climate projections are unlikely to accurately reflect species' exposure without accounting for the effects of microhabitat buffering on heat flux.}, }
@article {pmid33541862, year = {2021}, author = {Iacobucci, G}, title = {Millions face potential health risks from climate change in UK, report warns.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {372}, number = {}, pages = {n342}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.n342}, pmid = {33541862}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid33540199, year = {2021}, author = {Flanagan, A and Priyadarshini, A}, title = {A study of consumer behaviour towards food-waste in Ireland: Attitudes, quantities and global warming potentials.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {284}, number = {}, pages = {112046}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112046}, pmid = {33540199}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Consumer Behavior ; Female ; Food ; Global Warming ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Ireland ; Male ; *Refuse Disposal ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to investigate consumer behaviour towards food waste in Ireland by analysing their attitudes and quantities of food waste generated. Global warming potential of the food waste generated weekly is then assessed. A total of 2115 participants from all over the Republic of Ireland contributed to the survey (of which 2062 were included in this research). Using factor and cluster analysis, two clusters of consumers were formed based on their attitudes towards food waste, and it was found that 62.56% of the sample were 'uncaring' consumers and 37.44% were 'caring' consumers. The uncaring consumers consisted of more young males and were relatively unphased by food waste and take minimal precautions to reduce food waste at all stages of consumption. In contrast, caring consumers consisted of older and female consumers and were deeply disturbed by food waste, taking all precautions to reduce food waste at every stage of consumption. Regarding food waste quantities, uncaring consumers produced on average, 0.74 kg of food waste weekly, accounting for 2.74 kg of CO2 equivalent in global warming potential, whereas caring consumers produced only half this amount. Our results thus suggest that consumers attitudes towards food waste directly impact the food waste quantities they generate and consequently the global warming effects. However, in Ireland all consumer groups can benefit from more information about food waste and our study contributes by providing information that can inform strategic communication campaigns at policy or organisational level, to educates consumers about food waste and how they are contributing to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid33539746, year = {2021}, author = {Hiatt, RA and Beyeler, N}, title = {Cancer and climate change: the environmental impact of cancer care - Authors' reply.}, journal = {The Lancet. Oncology}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {e39}, doi = {10.1016/S1470-2045(21)00020-6}, pmid = {33539746}, issn = {1474-5488}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; *Neoplasms/epidemiology/therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid33539745, year = {2021}, author = {Briggs, S and Cavet, J and Lamb, C and Lightowlers, S}, title = {Cancer and climate change: the environmental impact of cancer care.}, journal = {The Lancet. Oncology}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {e38}, doi = {10.1016/S1470-2045(20)30740-3}, pmid = {33539745}, issn = {1474-5488}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; *Neoplasms/epidemiology/therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid33538139, year = {2021}, author = {Carballo, D and Carballo, S and Martin, PY}, title = {[Climate change and clinical implications].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {17}, number = {724}, pages = {258-262}, pmid = {33538139}, issn = {1660-9379}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Stroke ; }, abstract = {Climate change and global warming present major clinical challenges. We focus on cardiovascular and renal clinical consequences. The physiological adaptations and physiopathological effects are described, especially in vulnerable populations. The clinical consequences during heat waves, are mainly cardiovascular with stroke, acute ischemic heart disease and sudden death increased by up to 40%. Likewise, episodes of acute renal failure, electrolyte disturbances and kidney stones disease increase. The chronic consequences should not be overlooked, as the risk of heart failure also increases in high ambient temperature regions and there is also some evidence of an increase in chronic kidney disease in tropical zones. Physicians must be aware of these consequences as they will be involved in their management in the future.}, }
@article {pmid33537402, year = {2021}, author = {Norton, BB and Norton, SA}, title = {Lionfish envenomation in Caribbean and Atlantic waters: Climate change and invasive species.}, journal = {International journal of women's dermatology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {120-123}, pmid = {33537402}, issn = {2352-6475}, abstract = {The concept of emerging diseases is well understood; however, the concept of emerging injuries is not. We describe the introduction of two species of lionfish, native to the Indian and Pacific Oceans, into the warm shallow coastal waters of the Western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Lionfish thrive in the same coastal waters that attract recreational swimmers, snorkelers, and divers. Because lionfish have ornate colors, people often swim close to have a better look. Lionfish have venomous spines and, in a defensive reaction, frequently envenomate curious humans. The fish are voracious predators and disrupt the coral ecosystems of the Atlantic. Furthermore, their range is spreading through a combination of lack of natural predators and the expansion of hospitable warm waters into higher latitudes as part of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33537400, year = {2021}, author = {Fathy, R and Nelson, CA and Barbieri, JS}, title = {Combating climate change in the clinic: Cost-effective strategies to decrease the carbon footprint of outpatient dermatologic practice.}, journal = {International journal of women's dermatology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {107-111}, pmid = {33537400}, issn = {2352-6475}, support = {UL1 TR001863/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {There have been numerous studies highlighting the negative impact that climate change has already had and is expected to continue to have on patients and their health. Notably, the health care industry has been identified as a major contributor to the global carbon footprint, highlighting a major opportunity for practitioners to intervene. However, the large majority of the literature on strategies to reduce health care's contribution to climate change focuses solely on the inpatient setting. We review a variety of strategies for clinicians in the outpatient setting to adjust their practices to combat climate change. Summarizing the best evidence from other industries and translating recommendations from the literature on inpatient practice, we identify a wide range of opportunities for intervention, many of which are easy to implement and cost-effective. These general strategies to reduce both the carbon footprint and monthly operating costs of an outpatient clinic should be of interest to any practicing physician, both dermatologists and nondermatologists.}, }
@article {pmid33537399, year = {2021}, author = {Kwak, R and Kamal, K and Charrow, A and Khalifian, S}, title = {Mass migration and climate change: Dermatologic manifestations.}, journal = {International journal of women's dermatology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {98-106}, pmid = {33537399}, issn = {2352-6475}, abstract = {Major changes in climate resulting in mass migrations have unique dermatologic implications for global vulnerable populations. Dermatologic manifestations commonly accompany the infectious and communicable diseases that proliferate in the settings of confinement, crowding, and limited sanitation associated with mass migration. Ectoparasitic infestations abound in refugee camps, and poor nutrition, hygiene, and compromised immunity put refugees at an increased risk for more dangerous infectious diseases carried by these ectoparasites. Climate change also profoundly affects the worldwide distribution of various vector-borne illnesses, thereby leading to the emergence of various communicable diseases in previously nonendemic areas. Natural disasters not only disrupt important lifesaving treatments, but also challenge various infectious disease control measures that are critical in preventing rapid transmission of highly infectious diseases. This article reviews the infectious diseases commonly found in these scenarios and provides an in-depth discussion of important implications for the dermatologist.}, }
@article {pmid33537397, year = {2021}, author = {Schachtel, A and Dyer, JA and Boos, MD}, title = {Climate change and pediatric skin health.}, journal = {International journal of women's dermatology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {85-90}, pmid = {33537397}, issn = {2352-6475}, abstract = {Children are known to disproportionately bear the health impacts of climate change, particularly children living in impoverished areas. Owing to their developing physiology and immature metabolism, distinct exposure behaviors, and reliance on adults for care and protection, children are uniquely susceptible to the adverse effects of our warming planet. Herein, we summarize the known impacts of climate change on pediatric skin health, including its effects on atopic dermatitis, vector-borne and other infectious diseases, nutritional deficiencies, and psychodermatoses.}, }
@article {pmid33537396, year = {2021}, author = {Williams, ML}, title = {Global warming, heat-related illnesses, and the dermatologist.}, journal = {International journal of women's dermatology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {70-84}, pmid = {33537396}, issn = {2352-6475}, abstract = {Global warming, provoked by the greenhouse effect of high levels of atmospheric gases (most notably carbon dioxide and methane), directly threatens human health and survival. Individuals vary in their capacity to tolerate episodes of extreme heat. Because skin is the organ tasked with heat dissipation, it is important for dermatologists to be versed in the physiology of cutaneous heat dissipation and cognizant of clinical settings in which the skin's thermoregulatory responses may be impaired. When the external temperature is lower than that of the skin, the skin releases internal heat through direct thermal exchange with the environment, a process that is aided by an expansion of cutaneous blood flow and eccrine sweating. Cooling through the evaporation of sweat is effective even when the external temperature exceeds that of skin. Many factors, including environmental and physiological (e.g., age and sex), and pathological (e.g., preexisting illnesses, disorders of eccrine function, and medications) considerations, affect the skin's capacity to thermoregulate. Identification of individuals at increased risk for heat-related morbidity and mortality will become increasingly important in the care of patients.}, }
@article {pmid33537393, year = {2021}, author = {Parker, ER}, title = {The influence of climate change on skin cancer incidence - A review of the evidence.}, journal = {International journal of women's dermatology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {17-27}, pmid = {33537393}, issn = {2352-6475}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is broadly affecting human health, with grave concern that continued warming of the earth's atmosphere will result is serious harm. Since the mid-20th century, skin cancer incidence rates have risen at an alarming rate worldwide.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This review examines the relationship between climate change and cutaneous carcinogenesis.<br><br>METHODS: A literature review used the National Institutes of Health databases (PubMed and Medline), the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and International Agency for Research on Cancer registries, and published reports by federal and international agencies and consortia, including the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United Nations Environment Programme, World Health Organization, and World Meteorological Organization.<br><br>RESULTS: Skin cancer risk is determined by multiple factors, with exposure to ultraviolet radiation being the most important. Strong circumstantial evidence supports the hypothesis that factors related to climate change, including stratospheric ozone depletion, global warming, and ambient air pollution, have likely contributed to the increasing incidence of cutaneous malignancy globally and will continue to impose a negative on influence skin cancer incidence for many decades to come.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Because much of the data are based on animal studies and computer simulations, establishing a direct and definitive link remains challenging. More epidemiologic studies are needed to prove causality in skin cancer, but the evidence for overall harm to human health as a direct result of climate change is clear. Global action to mitigate these negative impacts to humans and the environment is imperative.}, }
@article {pmid33537392, year = {2021}, author = {Rosenbach, M and Williams, M}, title = {Climate change &amp; dermatology - a special issue for a special topic.}, journal = {International journal of women's dermatology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijwd.2020.12.001}, pmid = {33537392}, issn = {2352-6475}, }
@article {pmid33537357, year = {2020}, author = {Deluty, SB and Scott, DM and Waugh, SC and Martin, VK and McCaw, KA and Rupert, JR and Webb, TL and Baumgarn, SA and Carpenter, MJ and Duncan, CG}, title = {Client Choice May Provide an Economic Incentive for Veterinary Practices to Invest in Sustainable Infrastructure and Climate Change Education.}, journal = {Frontiers in veterinary science}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {622199}, pmid = {33537357}, issn = {2297-1769}, abstract = {Objective: To assess how pet owners perceive the role of veterinary medicine in addressing climate change and animal health and determine if there is a client-driven economic incentive to establish sustainable veterinary business practices. Sample: 1,044 dog and/or cat owners residing in the United States who had used veterinary services within the last 3 years. Procedures: An online Amazon mTurk survey about climate change and the perceived effects on client-owned dogs and cats was distributed to pet owners. Results: Most respondents believe climate change is occurring, and two-thirds of pet owners would value knowing their veterinarian received training on the animal health impacts of climate change. Over half of the respondents would pay more for veterinary services at a clinic with a reduced environmental impact. Additionally, clients would value some form of sustainability certification to aid in identification of such practices. Demographic influences found to be statistically significant included age, political ideology and where one resides (i.e., urban, suburban, or rural) whereas gender and income level, were not found to be significant. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance: Our data suggest there is an economic incentive for veterinary professionals to be knowledgeable about the health impacts of climate change and to implement and market sustainable practice initiatives. Prioritizing sustainable practice initiatives and climate change education in veterinary practices has the potential to mutually benefit both practitioner and client through shared patient health and financial incentives.}, }
@article {pmid33537182, year = {2021}, author = {Kondo, K and Mabon, L and Bi, Y and Chen, Y and Hayabuchi, Y}, title = {Balancing conflicting mitigation and adaptation behaviours of urban residents under climate change and the urban heat island effect.}, journal = {Sustainable cities and society}, volume = {65}, number = {}, pages = {102585}, pmid = {33537182}, issn = {2210-6715}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Under a warming climate and urban heat island effects, cooling behaviours are increasingly important for city dwellers. Cooling actions, especially air conditioning, receive increasing scrutiny in social science, as does engagement and communication on behaviours spanning adaptation and mitigation. In response, this paper evaluates the relation between residents' adaptation and mitigation behaviours around cooling in Fukuoka, Japan, and draws lessons for communication on encouraging adaptation and mitigation actions. A survey distributed to residents in six areas of Fukuoka, Japan, assessed perceptions of global warming and urban heat island effects, frequency of mitigation and adaptation behaviours, use of air conditioning, electricity bills and evaluation of green spaces. We observe a difference between respondents using air conditioning with an energy-saving (i.e. mitigation) focus, versus those using air conditioning with an adaptation (i.e. cooling) focus. We also note residents emphasising mitigation behaviours may use shade in parks or cooling centres as alternative cooling strategies, but that awareness of effective air conditioning use may be lacking. Our findings build on existing literature by reinforcing - in a subtropical context - the need to reconsider practices around air conditioner use; and illustrate the value of a breadth of messages to promote joint mitigation and adaptation actions.}, }
@article {pmid33536581, year = {2021}, author = {Bueno-Pardo, J and Nobre, D and Monteiro, JN and Sousa, PM and Costa, EFS and Baptista, V and Ovelheiro, A and Vieira, VMNCS and Chícharo, L and Gaspar, M and Erzini, K and Kay, S and Queiroga, H and Teodósio, MA and Leitão, F}, title = {Climate change vulnerability assessment of the main marine commercial fish and invertebrates of Portugal.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2958}, pmid = {33536581}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {This is the first attempt to apply an expert-based ecological vulnerability assessment of the effects of climate change on the main marine resources of Portugal. The vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and expected directional effects of 74 species of fish and invertebrates of commercial interest is estimated based on criteria related to their life-history and level of conservation or exploitation. This analysis is performed separately for three regions of Portugal and two scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). To do that, the fourth assessment report IPCC framework for vulnerability assessments was coupled to the outputs of a physical-biogeochemical model allowing to weight the exposure of the species by the expected variability of the environmental variables in the future. The highest vulnerabilities were found for some migratory and elasmobranch species, although overall vulnerability scores were low probably due to the high adaptive capacity of species from temperate ecosystems. Among regions, the highest average vulnerability was estimated for the species in the Central region while higher vulnerabilities were identified under climate change scenario RCP 8.5 in the three regions, due to higher expected climatic variability. This work establishes the basis for the assessment of the vulnerability of the human activities relying on marine resources in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33536485, year = {2021}, author = {Alves, TM and Kokinou, E and Ekström, M and Nikolaidis, A and Georgiou, GC and Miliou, A}, title = {Scientific, societal and pedagogical approaches to tackle the impact of climate change on marine pollution.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2927}, pmid = {33536485}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {2017-1-EL01-KA201-036241//ERASMUS/ ; }, abstract = {Marine pollution impacts coastal nations around the world, and more so: (a) in confined maritime areas with significant marine traffic, (b) where exploitation of natural and mineral resources is taking place, or (c) in regions witnessing pressure from tourism, local population growth, and industry. In this work, Digital Elevation Models, hydrographic, and climatic data are used together with computer simulations to understand the control of climate change on marine pollution. The results show that different climate change signals can potentially alter the flow and concentration of pollution in the European Seas, when compared to the present day. Ultimately, this work identifies the main sources of marine pollution as: (1) rivers and streams near cities and industrialised areas, (2) coastal areas experiencing sudden demographic pressures, (3) offshore shipping lanes in which oil and other marine debris are released, and (4) areas of rugged seafloor where industrial fishing takes place. This paper finishes by describing new educational material prepared to teach school children around the world. It explains why how a new training curriculum and e-game developed by Sea4All can be crucial in future Environmental Education and Education for a Sustainable Development.}, }
@article {pmid33536480, year = {2021}, author = {Bégin, PN and Tanabe, Y and Rautio, M and Wauthy, M and Laurion, I and Uchida, M and Culley, AI and Vincent, WF}, title = {Water column gradients beneath the summer ice of a High Arctic freshwater lake as indicators of sensitivity to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2868}, pmid = {33536480}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Ice cover persists throughout summer over many lakes at extreme polar latitudes but is likely to become increasingly rare with ongoing climate change. Here we addressed the question of how summer ice-cover affects the underlying water column of Ward Hunt Lake, a freshwater lake in the Canadian High Arctic, with attention to its vertical gradients in limnological properties that would be disrupted by ice loss. Profiling in the deepest part of the lake under thick mid-summer ice revealed a high degree of vertical structure, with gradients in temperature, conductivity and dissolved gases. Dissolved oxygen, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane rose with depth to concentrations well above air-equilibrium, with oxygen values at > 150% saturation in a mid-water column layer of potential convective mixing. Fatty acid signatures of the seston also varied with depth. Benthic microbial mats were the dominant phototrophs, growing under a dim green light regime controlled by the ice cover, water itself and weakly colored dissolved organic matter that was mostly autochthonous in origin. In this and other polar lakes, future loss of mid-summer ice will completely change many water column properties and benthic light conditions, resulting in a markedly different ecosystem regime.}, }
@article {pmid33534806, year = {2021}, author = {Fletcher, J and Higham, J and Longnecker, N}, title = {Climate change risk perception in the USA and alignment with sustainable travel behaviours.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {e0244545}, pmid = {33534806}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Imagination ; *Optimism ; *Perception ; Risk Assessment ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Travel ; United States ; }, abstract = {In an online survey of 1071 Americans conducted in October 2016, we found technological optimism, environmental beliefs, and gender to be better predictors of climate change concern than respondents' perceived ability to visualize the year 2050 and their future optimism. An important finding from this study is that in October 2016, just before the 2016 Presidential election, 74% of responding Americans were concerned about climate change. Climate change ranked as their second most serious global threat (behind terrorism). However, when asked to describe travel in the year 2050 only 29% of participants discussed lower carbon options, suggesting that actively envisioning a sustainable future was less prevalent than climate change concern. Enabling expectations and active anticipation of a low carbon future may help facilitate mitigation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid33530515, year = {2021}, author = {Kim, M and Lee, S and Lee, H and Lee, S}, title = {Phenological Response in the Trophic Levels to Climate Change in Korea.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {33530515}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; *Butterflies ; *Climate Change ; Republic of Korea ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The response of the phenological events of individual species to climate change is not isolated, but is connected through interaction with other species at the same or adjacent trophic level. Using long-term phenological data observed since 1976 in Korea, whose temperature has risen more steeply than the average global temperature, this study conducted phenological analysis (differ-ences in the phenology of groups, differences in phenological shifts due to climate change, differ-ences in phenological sensitivity to climate by groups, and the change of phenological day differ-ences among interacting groups). The phenological shift of the producer group (plants) was found to be negative in all researched species, which means that it blooms quickly over the years. The regression slope of consumers (primary consumers and secondary consumers) was generally posi-tive which means that the phenological events of these species tended to be later during the study period. The inter-regional deviation of phenological events was not large for any plant except for plum tree and Black locust. In addition, regional variations in high trophic levels of secondary consumers tended to be greater than that of producers and primary consumers. Among the studied species, plum was the most sensitive to temperature, and when the temperature rose by 1 °C, the flowering time of plum decreased by 7.20 days. As a result of checking the day differences in the phenological events of the interacting species, the phenological events of species were reversed, and butterflies have appeared earlier than plum, Korean forsythia, and Korean rosebay since 1990. Using long-term data from Korea, this study investigated differences in phenological reactions among trophic groups. There is a possibility of a phenological mismatch between trophic groups in the future if global warming continues due to differences in sensitivity to climate and phenological shifts between trophic levels.}, }
@article {pmid33529976, year = {2021}, author = {Martino, C and Byrne, M and Roccheri, MC and Chiarelli, R}, title = {Interactive effects of increased temperature and gadolinium pollution in Paracentrotus lividus sea urchin embryos: a climate change perspective.}, journal = {Aquatic toxicology (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {232}, number = {}, pages = {105750}, doi = {10.1016/j.aquatox.2021.105750}, pmid = {33529976}, issn = {1879-1514}, abstract = {Gradual ocean warming and marine heatwaves represent major threats for marine organisms already facing other anthropogenic-derived hazards, such as chemical contamination in coastal areas. In this study, the combined effects of thermal stress and exposure to gadolinium (Gd), a metal used as a contrasting agent in medical imaging which enters the aquatic environment, were investigated in the embryos and larvae of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. Embryos were exposed to six treatments of three temperatures (18 °C, 21 °C, 24 °C) and two Gd concentrations (control: 0 μM; treated: 20 μM). With respect to developmental progression, increased temperature accelerated development and achievement of the larval stage, while Gd-exposed embryos at the control temperature (18 °C) showed a general delay in development at 24 h post-fertilization (hpf), and a stunting effect and impaired skeleton growth at 48 hpf. Elevated temperatures at near-future projections (+3 °C, 21 °C) reduced the negative effects of Gd on development with a lower percentage of abnormality and improved skeleton growth. Combined extreme warming at present-day marine heatwave conditions (+6 °C, 24 °C) and Gd treatment resulted in a lower proportion of embryos reaching the advanced larval stages compared to the 21 °C + Gd. At the molecular level, western blot analysis showed that Gd was the main driver for the induction of heat shock protein (HSP60, HSP70) expression. At 48 hpf, temperature increase was the main driver for activation of additional cellular stress response strategies such as autophagy and apoptosis. Combined treatments showed the induction of HSP60 at 24 hpf and autophagic and apoptotic processes at 48 hpf. Treatments having low levels of HSPs expression showed high levels of apoptosis, and vice versa, clearly demonstrating the antagonistic effects of HSPs expression and apoptosis. Detection of fragmented DNA in apoptotic nuclei showed selective apoptosis, likely in extremely damaged cells. Our results indicate that the negative effects of Gd-exposure on P. lividus larval development and biomineralization will be mitigated by a near-future ocean warming, up to a thermotolerance threshold when negative synergistic effects were evident. Our data highlight the use of biomarkers as sensitive tools to detect environmental impacts as well as the need for a better understanding of the interactions between the multiple stressors faced by marine species in coastal environments.}, }
@article {pmid33526808, year = {2021}, author = {Hn Palma, J and Hakamada, R and Moreira, GG and Nobre, S and Rodriguez, LCE}, title = {Using 3PG to assess climate change impacts on management plan optimization of Eucalyptus plantations. A case study in Southern Brazil.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2708}, pmid = {33526808}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Eucalyptus plantations around the world have been largely used by the paper industry. Optimizing the management of resources is a common practice in this highly competitive industry and new forest growth models may help to understand the impact of climate change on the decisions of the optimization processes. Current optimized management plans use empirical equations to predict future forest stands growth, and it is currently impractical to replace these empirical equations with physiological models due to data input requirements. In this paper, we present a different approach, by first carrying out a preliminary assessment with the process-based physiological model 3PG to evaluate the growth of Eucalyptus stands under climate change predictions. The information supplied by 3PG was then injected as a modifier in the projected yield that feeds the management plan optimizer allowing the interpretation of climate change impacts on the management plan. Modelling results show that although a general increase of rain with climate change is predicted, the distribution throughout the year will not favor the tree growth. On the contrary, rain will increase when it is less needed (summer) and decrease when it is most needed (winter), decreasing forest stand productivity between 3 and 5%, depending on the region and soil. Evaluation of the current optimized plan that kept constant the relation between wood price/cellulose ton shows a variation in different strategic management options and an overall increase of costs in owned areas between 2 and 4%, and a decrease of cumulated net present value, initially at 15% with later stabilization at 6-8%. This is a basic comparison to observe climate change effects; nevertheless, it provides insights into how the entire decision-making process may change due to a reduction in biomass production under future climate scenarios. This work demonstrates the use of physiological models to extract information that could be merged with existing and already implemented empirical models. The methodology may also be considered a preliminary alternative to the complete replacement of empirical models by physiological models. Our approach allows some insight into forest responses to different future climate conditions, something which empirical models are not designed for.}, }
@article {pmid33523461, year = {2021}, author = {Van Gemert, TE and Moses, RG and Lambert, K}, title = {The potential effects of climate change on the prevalence of gestational diabetes are less apparent with different diagnostic criteria.}, journal = {The Australian &amp; New Zealand journal of obstetrics &amp; gynaecology}, volume = {61}, number = {1}, pages = {E3-E4}, doi = {10.1111/ajo.13239}, pmid = {33523461}, issn = {1479-828X}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Diabetes, Gestational/diagnosis/epidemiology ; Female ; Glucose Tolerance Test ; Humans ; Pregnancy ; Pregnancy Outcome ; Prevalence ; }, }
@article {pmid33522674, year = {2021}, author = {Hall, NL and Barnes, S and Canuto, C and Nona, F and Redmond, AM}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases in Australia's Torres Strait Islands.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {45}, number = {2}, pages = {122-128}, doi = {10.1111/1753-6405.13073}, pmid = {33522674}, issn = {1753-6405}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases ; *Health Services, Indigenous ; Humans ; Islands ; Longitudinal Studies ; Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander/*psychology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This research seeks to identify climate-sensitive infectious diseases of concern with a present and future likelihood of increased occurrence in the geographically vulnerable Torres Strait Islands, Australia. The objective is to contribute evidence to the need for adequate climate change responses.<br><br>METHODS: Case data of infectious diseases with proven, potential and speculative climate sensitivity were compiled.<br><br>RESULTS: Five climate-sensitive diseases in the Torres Strait and Cape York region were identified as of concern: tuberculosis, dengue, Ross River virus, melioidosis and nontuberculous mycobacterial infection. The region constitutes 0.52% of Queensland's population but has a disproportionately high proportion of the state's cases: 20.4% of melioidosis, 2.4% of tuberculosis and 2.1% of dengue.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The Indigenous Torres Strait Islander peoples intend to remain living on their traditional country long-term, yet climate change brings risks of both direct and indirect human health impacts. Implications for public health: Climate-sensitive infections pose a disproportionate burden and ongoing risk to Torres Strait Islander peoples. Addressing the causes of climate change is the responsibility of various agencies in parallel with direct action to minimise or prevent infections. All efforts should privilege Torres Strait Islander peoples' voices to self-determine response actions.}, }
@article {pmid33522607, year = {2021}, author = {Tripathi, RK and Wilkins, O}, title = {Single cell gene regulatory networks in plants: Opportunities for enhancing climate change stress resilience.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {44}, number = {7}, pages = {2006-2017}, pmid = {33522607}, issn = {1365-3040}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Gene Editing ; *Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; *Gene Regulatory Networks ; Genome, Plant ; Hot Temperature ; Plant Cells/*physiology ; Single-Cell Analysis/*methods ; Stress, Physiological/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Global warming poses major challenges for plant survival and agricultural productivity. Thus, efforts to enhance stress resilience in plants are key strategies for protecting food security. Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) are a critical mechanism conferring stress resilience. Until recently, predicting GRNs of the individual cells that make up plants and other multicellular organisms was impeded by aggregate population scale measurements of transcriptome and other genome-scale features. With the advancement of high-throughput single cell RNA-seq and other single cell assays, learning GRNs for individual cells is now possible, in principle. In this article, we report on recent advances in experimental and analytical methodologies for single cell sequencing assays especially as they have been applied to the study of plants. We highlight recent advances and ongoing challenges for scGRN prediction, and finally, we highlight the opportunity to use scGRN discovery for studying and ultimately enhancing abiotic stress resilience in plants.}, }
@article {pmid33522071, year = {2021}, author = {Seddon, N and Smith, A and Smith, P and Key, I and Chausson, A and Girardin, C and House, J and Srivastava, S and Turner, B}, title = {Getting the message right on nature-based solutions to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {1518-1546}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15513}, pmid = {33522071}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Forestry ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Nature-based solutions (NbS)-solutions to societal challenges that involve working with nature-have recently gained popularity as an integrated approach that can address climate change and biodiversity loss, while supporting sustainable development. Although well-designed NbS can deliver multiple benefits for people and nature, much of the recent limelight has been on tree planting for carbon sequestration. There are serious concerns that this is distracting from the need to rapidly phase out use of fossil fuels and protect existing intact ecosystems. There are also concerns that the expansion of forestry framed as a climate change mitigation solution is coming at the cost of carbon rich and biodiverse native ecosystems and local resource rights. Here, we discuss the promise and pitfalls of the NbS framing and its current political traction, and we present recommendations on how to get the message right. We urge policymakers, practitioners and researchers to consider the synergies and trade-offs associated with NbS and to follow four guiding principles to enable NbS to provide sustainable benefits to society: (1) NbS are not a substitute for the rapid phase out of fossil fuels; (2) NbS involve a wide range of ecosystems on land and in the sea, not just forests; (3) NbS are implemented with the full engagement and consent of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in a way that respects their cultural and ecological rights; and (4) NbS should be explicitly designed to provide measurable benefits for biodiversity. Only by following these guidelines will we design robust and resilient NbS that address the urgent challenges of climate change and biodiversity loss, sustaining nature and people together, now and into the future.}, }
@article {pmid33521994, year = {2021}, author = {Zang, SM and Benjenk, I and Breakey, S and Pusey-Reid, E and Nicholas, PK}, title = {The intersection of climate change with the era of COVID-19.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {38}, number = {2}, pages = {321-335}, pmid = {33521994}, issn = {1525-1446}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Nurse's Role ; Public Health Nursing ; }, abstract = {The purpose of this integrative review is to examine recent literature on the intersection of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 novel coronavirus) and climate change that will lead to a greater understanding of the complexities of the urgent pandemic linked with the emerging climate crisis. A literature search for peer-reviewed, English language, literature published since the pandemic emerged was conducted using Cumulated Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PubMed, and the Cochrane Library. The final sample yielded a total of 22 commentaries, editorials, discussion papers, and a research study that explicitly addressed the intersection of COVID-19 and climate change. Sixty articles emerged in the initial review of the intersection of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change with the final yield of 22 articles deemed valid for inclusion after full text review. With the emergence of COVID-19 and scholarly discourse that addresses the intersection of the pandemic with climate change, key issues emerged that intersect with policy /advocacy, social justice, and nursing's public health role in clinical practice, education, policy/advocacy, and research/scholarship. Five themes that emerged included the role of public health in COVID-19 and climate change efforts; global approach addressing human-environment issues; intersection of COVID-19 and climate change from a community and global perspective; impacts of COVID-19, climate change and the environment and professional associations and specialty organizations' views and responsibilities with a lens on COVID-19 and climate change. Despite the importance of addressing racial inequities as well as systemic and structural racism that impacts those most affected by climate change and pandemics such as COVID-19, no literature addressed this topic. Public health nursing has a critical role in addressing climate change and the pandemic response to COVID 19 in the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid33521518, year = {2020}, author = {Bradfield, J and Trigueiro, H and Ray, S}, title = {Is global dietary change an effective strategy to curb climate change?.}, journal = {BMJ nutrition, prevention &amp; health}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {121-122}, pmid = {33521518}, issn = {2516-5542}, }
@article {pmid33521019, year = {2020}, author = {Tak, YJ and Shin, DK and Kim, AH and Kim, JI and Lee, YL and Ko, HC and Kim, YW and Lee, SY}, title = {Effect of Collagen Tripeptide and Adjusting for Climate Change on Skin Hydration in Middle-Aged Women: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial.}, journal = {Frontiers in medicine}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {608903}, pmid = {33521019}, issn = {2296-858X}, abstract = {Introduction: Although collagen is widely used in various forms as a functional ingredient in skin care products, the effect of oral supplementation of collagen tripeptides (CTPs) on human skin is unclear. Moreover, the majority of the positive outcomes of CTP reported so far have not considered the effect of weather conditions. Therefore, we tested the effect of CTP and adjusting for climate change on skin properties in middle-aged women. Materials and Methods: A randomized controlled trial was conducted with 84 women between 40 and 60 years of age. Participants were randomized to receive placebo or 1,000 mg CTP daily for 12 weeks. CTP was prepared from the skin of Nile Tilapia by the digestion method using collagenase from non-pathogenic bacteria of the genus Bacillus. Skin hydration, wrinkling, and elasticity were assessed at baseline and after 6 and 12 weeks with adjustments for temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet A exposure during the evaluation time using weather data from the regional meteorological office. Results: Of the 82 participants, 74 completed the trial without adverse effects. Compared with the control group, trans-epidermal water loss was reduced more in the CTP group after 12 weeks (P < 0.05). At 12 weeks, even after adjustment for humidity, temperature, and UVA in the region, the difference of the two groups in TEWL remained statistically significant (adjusted for humidity and temperature, P = 0.024; adjusted for UVA, P = 0.032; adjusted for temperature, high temperature, and ultraviolet A, P = 0.031). In terms of skin hydration, more improvement was evident in the CTP group than in the control group. In the subgroup analysis, subjects under 50 years of age showed a significant improvement in total score and moisture in the subjective skin improvement questionnaire after taking CTP for 12 weeks. Application of CTP was well-tolerated, and no notable adverse effect was reported from both groups. Discussion: Our findings suggest that oral ingestion of CTP from the Skin of Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) is well-tolerated and helps reduce water loss in in middle-aged women. Clinical Trial Registration: www.clinicaltrials.gov/, Identifier: NCT03505684.}, }
@article {pmid33520173, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, WT and Guo, WY and Jarvie, S and Svenning, JC}, title = {The fate of Meconopsis species in the Tibeto-Himalayan region under future climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {887-899}, pmid = {33520173}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {High-mountain areas such as the Tibeto-Himalayan region (THR) host cold-adapted biota expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic climate change. Meconopsis is a representative endangered genus confined to alpine meadow or subnival habitats in the THR. We used climate-niche factor analysis to study the vulnerability of ten Meconopsis species to climate change, comparing current climate (representative of 1960-1990) to future climate scenarios (2070: average 2061-2080). For these ten Meconopsis species, we then identified potential future climate refugia and determined optimal routes for each species to disperse to the proposed refugia. Our results indicate that for the ten Meconopsis species, the regions with low vulnerability to climate change in the THR are the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains (HDM), the eastern Himalayas, and the West Qinling Mountain (WQL), and can be considered potential future climate refugia. Under future climate change, we found for the ten Meconopsis species potential dispersal routes to three of the four identified refugia: the HDM, the eastern Himalayas, and the WQL. Our results suggest that past refugia on the THR will also be the future climate refugia for the ten Meconopsis species, and these species may potentially persist in multiple future climate refugia, likely reducing risks from climate change. Furthermore, climate change may affect the threat ranking of Red Listed Species for Meconopsis species, as Least Concern species were estimated to become more vulnerable to climate change than the only Near Threatened species.}, }
@article {pmid33519921, year = {2020}, author = {Matos, M and Simões, P and Fragata, I and Quina, AS and Kristensen, TN and Santos, M}, title = {Editorial: Coping With Climate Change: A Genomic Perspective on Thermal Adaptation.}, journal = {Frontiers in genetics}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {619441}, pmid = {33519921}, issn = {1664-8021}, }
@article {pmid33519859, year = {2020}, author = {Naulleau, A and Gary, C and Prévot, L and Hossard, L}, title = {Evaluating Strategies for Adaptation to Climate Change in Grapevine Production-A Systematic Review.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {607859}, pmid = {33519859}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {In many areas of the world, maintaining grapevine production will require adaptation to climate change. While rigorous evaluations of adaptation strategies provide decision makers with valuable insights, those that are published often overlook major constraints, ignore local adaptive capacity, and suffer from a compartmentalization of disciplines and scales. The objective of our study was to identify current knowledge of evaluation methods and their limitations, reported in the literature. We reviewed 111 papers that evaluate adaptation strategies in the main vineyards worldwide. Evaluation approaches are analyzed through key features (e.g., climate data sources, methodology, evaluation criteria) to discuss their ability to address climate change issues, and to identify promising outcomes for climate change adaptations. We highlight the fact that combining adaptation levers in the short and long term (location, vine training, irrigation, soil, and canopy management, etc.) enables local compromises to be reached between future water availability and grapevine productivity. The main findings of the paper are three-fold: (1) the evaluation of a combination of adaptation strategies provides better solutions for adapting to climate change; (2) multi-scale studies allow local constraints and opportunities to be considered; and (3) only a small number of studies have developed multi-scale and multi-lever approaches to quantify feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation. In addition, we found that climate data sources were not systematically clearly presented, and that climate uncertainty was hardly accounted for. Moreover, only a small number of studies have assessed the economic impacts of adaptation, especially at farm scale. We conclude that the development of methodologies to evaluate adaptation strategies, considering both complementary adaptations and scales, is essential if relevant information is to be provided to the decision-makers of the wine industry.}, }
@article {pmid33519036, year = {2021}, author = {Zhao, X and You, F}, title = {Waste respirator processing system for public health protection and climate change mitigation under COVID-19 pandemic: Novel process design and energy, environmental, and techno-economic perspectives.}, journal = {Applied energy}, volume = {283}, number = {}, pages = {116129}, pmid = {33519036}, issn = {0306-2619}, abstract = {The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic leads to a surge on consumption of respirators. This study proposes a novel and effective waste respirator processing system for protecting public health and mitigating climate change. Respirator sterilization and pre-processing technologies are included in the system to resist viral infection and facilitate unit processes for respirator pyrolysis, product separation, and downstream processing for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. We evaluate the system's environmental performance through high-fidelity process simulations and detailed life cycle assessment. Techno-economic analysis results show that the payback time of the waste respirator processing system is seven years with an internal rate of return of 21.5%. The tipping fee and discount rate are the most influential economic factors. Moreover, the unit life cycle GHG emissions from the waste respirator processing system are 12.93 kg CO2-eq per thousand waste respirators treated, which reduces GHG emissions by 59.08% compared to incineration-based system so as to mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33518296, year = {2021}, author = {Gouvêa, LP and Assis, J and Gurgel, CFD and Serrão, EA and Silveira, TCL and Santos, R and Duarte, CM and Peres, LMC and Carvalho, VF and Batista, M and Bastos, E and Sissini, MN and Horta, PA}, title = {Corrigendum to "Golden carbon of Sargassum forests revealed as an opportunity for climate change mitigation" [Sci. Total Environ., 729 (2020) Start page - End page/ 138745].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {765}, number = {}, pages = {144696}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144696}, pmid = {33518296}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid33518201, year = {2021}, author = {Cervini, C and Verheecke-Vaessen, C and Ferrara, M and García-Cela, E and Magistà, D and Medina, A and Gallo, A and Magan, N and Perrone, G}, title = {Interacting climate change factors (CO2 and temperature cycles) effects on growth, secondary metabolite gene expression and phenotypic ochratoxin A production by Aspergillus carbonarius strains on a grape-based matrix.}, journal = {Fungal biology}, volume = {125}, number = {2}, pages = {115-122}, doi = {10.1016/j.funbio.2019.11.001}, pmid = {33518201}, issn = {1878-6146}, mesh = {*Aspergillus/genetics/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Gene Expression ; Italy ; *Ochratoxins/metabolism ; Temperature ; *Vitis/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Little is known on the impact that climate change (CC) may have on Aspergillus carbonarius and Ochratoxin A (OTA) contamination of grapes, especially in the Mediterranean region where in CC scenarios temperature are expected to increase by +2-5 °C and CO2 from 400 to 800/1200 ppm. This study examined the effect of (i) current and increased temperature in the alternating 11.5 h dark/12.5 h light cycle (15-28 °C vs 18-34 °C), representative of the North Apulia area, South Italy and (ii) existing and predicted CO2 concentrations (400 vs 1000 ppm), on growth, expression of biosynthetic genes (AcOTApks, AcOTAnrps, AcOTAhal, AcOTAp450, AcOTAbZIP) and regulatory genes of Velvet complex (laeA/veA/velB, "velvet complex") involved in OTA biosynthesis and OTA phenotypic production by three strains of A. carbonarius. The experiments made on a grape-based matrix showed that elevated CO2 resulted in a general stimulation of growth and OTA production. These results were also supported by the up-regulation of both structural and regulatory genes involved in the OTA biosynthesis. Our work has shown for the first time that elevated CO2 concentration in the Mediterranean region may result in an increased risk of OTA contamination in the wine production chain.}, }
@article {pmid33517008, year = {2021}, author = {Feng, X and Qiu, H and Pan, J and Tang, J}, title = {The impact of climate change on livestock production in pastoral areas of China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {770}, number = {}, pages = {144838}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144838}, pmid = {33517008}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study assesses the impacts of climate change on net livestock revenue, grazing intensity, and net revenue per livestock, based on a panel dataset of 959 herder households from 18 counties in three major pastoral provinces in China. The Ricardian model and the Hsiao two-step method are applied to quantify the impacts on household-level livestock production made by long-term changes of temperature and precipitation and short-term occurrence of natural disasters. The results indicate that long-term temperature leads to decreased net livestock revenue and net revenue per livestock, whereas long-term precipitation improves revenue per livestock. Next, both long-term annual temperature and precipitation result in an increase of grazing intensity. A further analysis based on the simulation of future climate change predicts that the future increase in temperature will have a negative influence on both net revenue and net revenue per livestock, while the precipitation increment will have a positive effect on livestock production.}, }
@article {pmid33515149, year = {2021}, author = {Shahzad, A and Ullah, S and Dar, AA and Sardar, MF and Mehmood, T and Tufail, MA and Shakoor, A and Haris, M}, title = {Nexus on climate change: agriculture and possible solution to cope future climate change stresses.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {12}, pages = {14211-14232}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-021-12649-8}, pmid = {33515149}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Plant Breeding ; Soil ; }, abstract = {The changing climate scenarios harshen the biotic stresses including boosting up the population of insect/pest and disease, uplifting weed growth, declining soil beneficial microbes, threaten pollinator, and boosting up abiotic stresses including harsh drought/waterlogging, extremisms in temperature, salinity/alkalinity, abrupt rainfall pattern)) and ulitamtely affect the plant in multiple ways. This nexus review paper will cover four significant points viz (1) the possible impacts of climate change; as the world already facing the problem of food security, in such crucial period, climatic change severely affects all four dimensions of food security (from production to consumption) and will lead to malnutrition/malnourishment faced by low-income peoples. (2) How some major crops (wheat, cotton, rice, maize, and sugarcane) are affected by stress and their consequent loss. (3) How to develop a strategic work to limit crucial factors, like their significant role in climate-smart breeding, developing resilience to stresses, and idiotypic breeding. Additionally, there is an essence of improving food security, as much of our food is wasted before consumption for instance post-harvest losses. (4) Role of biotechnology and genetic engineering in adaptive introgression of the gene or developing plant transgenic against pests. As millions of dollars are invested in innovation and research to cope with future climate change stresses on a plant, hence community base adaptation of innovation is also considered an important factor in crop improvements. Because of such crucial predictions about the future impacts of climate change on agriculture, we must adopt measures to evolve crop.}, }
@article {pmid33514877, year = {2021}, author = {Velasco, JA and Estrada, F and Calderón-Bustamante, O and Swingedouw, D and Ureta, C and Gay, C and Defrance, D}, title = {Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {141}, pmid = {33514877}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {Amphibians/classification/*physiology ; Animals ; Computer Simulation ; Databases, Factual ; *Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Environmental Monitoring ; Extinction, Biological ; *Global Warming ; Ice ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Density ; *Temperature ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems' health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid33513518, year = {2021}, author = {Cao, D and Zhang, J and Xun, L and Yang, S and Wang, J and Yao, F}, title = {Spatiotemporal variations of global terrestrial vegetation climate potential productivity under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {770}, number = {}, pages = {145320}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145320}, pmid = {33513518}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Evaluating the climate potential productivity (CPP) of terrestrial vegetation is crucial to ascertain the threshold of vegetation productivity, to maximize the utilization of regional climate resources, and to fully display the productivity application level. In this study, the maximum net primary productivity (NPPmax) representing the highest possible productivity of vegetation was calculated using the FLUXNET maximum gross primary productivity (GPPmax) from 177 flux towers. The relationships between NPPmax and a set of climate variables were established using the classification and regression tree (CART) modeling framework. The CART algorithm was used to upscale the CPP to the global scale under the current climate baseline (1980-2018) and future climate scenarios. The spatiotemporal variations in CPP over the globe were analyzed and the impacts of climate factors on it were assessed. The results indicate that global CPPs range from 0 to 2000 g C/m[2]. The tropical rainforest area is the region with the highest CPP, whereas the lowest CPP occurs in arid/semiarid areas. These two regions were identified as the areas with the largest CPP reductions in the future. The findings reveal that CPP shows signs of productivity saturation and that future climate is not conducive to the increases in vegetation productivity in these regions. The increases in average annual temperature, minimum temperature, and solar radiation are beneficial to CPP increase in most parts of the globe under climate change. However, the negative contribution of maximum temperature increase and precipitation reduction to CPP is higher than the positive contribution of the above three rising factors to CPP in tropical and arid/semiarid areas. Our study is important to aid in creating targeted policies for future sustainable development, resource allocation, and vegetation management.}, }
@article {pmid33509499, year = {2021}, author = {Gutiérrez-Gamboa, G and Zheng, W and Martínez de Toda, F}, title = {Current viticultural techniques to mitigate the effects of global warming on grape and wine quality: A comprehensive review.}, journal = {Food research international (Ottawa, Ont.)}, volume = {139}, number = {}, pages = {109946}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodres.2020.109946}, pmid = {33509499}, issn = {1873-7145}, mesh = {*Agriculture/methods/trends ; Anthocyanins/analysis ; Fruit/chemistry ; Global Warming ; *Vitis ; *Wine/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate is the main factor affecting grape and wine quality in Mediterranean viticulture. Global warming provokes an increase in the accumulation of soluble solids in grapes, together with a lower content of anthocyanins and acidity. This result in stuck and sluggish fermentations causing economic losses in the winery. Climate adaptation strategies are essential to minimize the detrimental effects of global warming on grape and wine quality. This review summarized the effect of viticultural techniques to delay grapevine ripening with emphasis on canopy management and we overviewed the effects of high temperatures on grape and wine quality. Some viticultural techniques such as severe shoot trimming, minimal pruning, late winter pruning and apical leaf removal may delay grapevine ripening close to 15 days. Forcing regrowth is the most interesting technique since it allows to delay grape ripening at least of two months which can be essential in warm grapevine production areas.}, }
@article {pmid33509384, year = {2021}, author = {The Lancet Digital Health, }, title = {Technology: the nexus of climate change and COVID-19?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Digital health}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {e67}, doi = {10.1016/S2589-7500(21)00007-8}, pmid = {33509384}, issn = {2589-7500}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; *COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Inventions ; }, }
@article {pmid33508870, year = {2021}, author = {Naidu, DGT and Bagchi, S}, title = {Greening of the earth does not compensate for rising soil heterotrophic respiration under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {10}, pages = {2029-2038}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15531}, pmid = {33508870}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//DBT-IISc partnership/ ; //Ministry of Human Resource Development/ ; //STC-IISc/ ; //DST-FIST/ ; //DST-SERB/ ; }, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Respiration ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Stability of the soil carbon (C) pool under decadal scale variability in temperature and precipitation is an important source of uncertainty in our understanding of land-atmosphere climate feedbacks. This depends on how two opposing C-fluxes-influx from net primary production (NPP) and efflux from heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh)-respond to covariation in temperature and precipitation. There is scant evidence to judge whether field experiments which manipulate both temperature and precipitation align with Earth System Models, or not. As a result, even though the world is generally greening, whether the resultant gains in NPP can offset climate change impacts on Rh , where, and by how much, remains uncertain. Here, we use decadal-scale global time-series datasets on NPP, Rh , temperature, and precipitation to estimate the two opposing C-fluxes and address whether one can outpace the other. We implement machine-learning tools on recent (2001-2019) and near-future climate scenarios (2020-2040) to assess the response of both C-fluxes to temperature and precipitation variation. We find that changes in C-influx may not compensate for C-efflux, particularly in wetter and warmer conditions. Soil-C loss can occur in both tropics and at high latitudes since C-influx from NPP can fall behind C-efflux from Rh . Precipitation emerges as the key determinant of soil-C vulnerability in a warmer world, implying that hotspots for soil-C loss/gain can shift rapidly and highlighting that soil-C is vulnerable to climate change despite widespread greening of the world. The direction of covariation between change in temperature and precipitation, rather than their magnitude, can help conceptualize highly variable patterns in C-fluxes to guide soil-C stewardship.}, }
@article {pmid33508094, year = {2021}, author = {Tidman, R and Abela-Ridder, B and de Castañeda, RR}, title = {The impact of climate change on neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review.}, journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene}, volume = {115}, number = {2}, pages = {147-168}, pmid = {33508094}, issn = {1878-3503}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors ; Humans ; Neglected Diseases/epidemiology ; Public Health ; Tropical Climate ; *Tropical Medicine ; }, abstract = {Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a diverse group of diseases that continue to affect >1 billion people, with these diseases disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations and territories. Climate change is having an increasing impact on public health in tropical and subtropical areas and across the world and can affect disease distribution and transmission in potentially diverse ways. Improving our understanding of how climate change influences NTDs can help identify populations at risk to include in future public health interventions. Articles were identified by searching electronic databases for reports of climate change and NTDs between 1 January 2010 and 1 March 2020. Climate change may influence the emergence and re-emergence of multiple NTDs, particularly those that involve a vector or intermediate host for transmission. Although specific predictions are conflicting depending on the geographic area, the type of NTD and associated vectors and hosts, it is anticipated that multiple NTDs will have changes in their transmission period and geographic range and will likely encroach on regions and populations that have been previously unaffected. There is a need for improved surveillance and monitoring to identify areas of NTD incursion and emergence and include these in future public health interventions.}, }
@article {pmid33507505, year = {2021}, author = {Jamil, I and Jun, W and Mughal, B and Raza, MH and Imran, MA and Waheed, A}, title = {Does the adaptation of climate-smart agricultural practices increase farmers' resilience to climate change?.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {21}, pages = {27238-27249}, pmid = {33507505}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {71673216//National Science Foundation of People's Republic of China/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {Traditional agricultural practices, extensive use of inputs, and abrupt changes in climate have been of great concern to agriculture production around the world, especially in developing countries. Therefore, it is very vital to adopt and expand Climate-Smart agricultural (CSA) practices. By the cross-sectional data of 350 cotton farmers from major cotton-growing districts of Punjab Pakistan, adoption of CSA practices such as irrigation and soil and crop management practices is evaluated, and factors which affect farmer adoption decision and its impact on poverty, income, and yield are estimated by using logistic regression and propensity score matching (PSM) respectively. The results found that education, access to credit, tubewell ownership, farming experience, and access to extension services positively influenced farmers' adoption behavior. Further, PSM results revealed that adoption of CSA practices is economical, financially, environmentally desirable, and pro-poor. According to these findings, ultimately adoption would help in reducing the negative impact of climate change on the cotton crop by ensuring profits, removing the barriers in the adoption, disseminating the information about CSA, and strictly enforcing the regulations for CSA.}, }
@article {pmid33503036, year = {2021}, author = {Rodríguez-Cruz, LA and Niles, MT}, title = {Awareness of climate change's impacts and motivation to adapt are not enough to drive action: A look of Puerto Rican farmers after Hurricane Maria.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {e0244512}, pmid = {33503036}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Adult ; Aged ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; Farmers/*psychology ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Models, Theoretical ; Motivation ; Puerto Rico ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Understanding how perceptions around motivation, capacity, and climate change's impacts relate to the adoption of adaptation practices in light of experiences with extreme weather events is important in assessing farmers' adaptive capacity. However, very little of this work has occurred in islands, which may have different vulnerabilities and capacities for adaptation. Data of surveyed farmers throughout Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria (n = 405, 87% response rate) were used in a structural equation model to explore the extent to which their adoption of agricultural practices and management strategies was driven by perceptions of motivation, vulnerability, and capacity as a function of their psychological distance of climate change. Our results show that half of farmers did not adopt any practice or strategy, even though the majority perceived themselves capable and motivated to adapt to climate change, and understood their farms to be vulnerable to future extreme events. Furthermore, adoption was neither linked to these adaptation perceptions, nor to their psychological distance of climate change, which we found to be both near and far. Puerto Rican farmers' showed a broad awareness of climate change's impacts both locally and globally in different dimensions (temporal, spatial, and social), and climate distance was not linked to reported damages from Hurricane Maria or to previous extreme weather events. These results suggest that we may be reaching a tipping point for extreme events as a driver for climate belief and action, especially in places where there is a high level of climate change awareness and continued experience of compounded impacts. Further, high perceived capacity and motivation are not linked to actual adaptation behaviors, suggesting that broadening adaptation analyses beyond individual perceptions and capacities as drivers of climate adaptation may give us a better understanding of the determinants to strengthen farmers' adaptive capacity.}, }
@article {pmid33502683, year = {2021}, author = {Prado-Cabrero, A and Nolan, JM}, title = {Omega-3 nutraceuticals, climate change and threats to the environment: The cases of Antarctic krill and Calanus finmarchicus.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {6}, pages = {1184-1199}, pmid = {33502683}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {CF20160426//Enterprise Ireland/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Dietary Supplements ; Ecosystem ; *Euphausiacea ; Humans ; Norway ; }, abstract = {The nutraceutical market for EPA (eicosapentaenoic acid) and DHA (docosahexaenoic acid) is promoting fishing for Euphasia superba (Antarctic krill) in the Southern Ocean and Calanus finmarchicus in Norwegian waters. This industry argues that these species are underexploited, but they are essential in their ecosystems, and climate change is altering their geographical distribution. In this perspective, we advocate the cessation of fishing for these species to produce nutraceuticals with EPA and DHA. We argue that this is possible because, contrary to what this industry promotes, the benefits of these fatty acids only seem significant to specific population groups, and not for the general population. Next, we explain that this is desirable because there is evidence that these fisheries may interact with the impact of climate change. Greener sources of EPA and DHA are already available on the market, and their reasonable use would ease pressure on the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid33497266, year = {2021}, author = {Binns, CW and Lee, MK and Maycock, B and Torheim, LE and Nanishi, K and Duong, DTT}, title = {Climate Change, Food Supply, and Dietary Guidelines.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {233-255}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-012420-105044}, pmid = {33497266}, issn = {1545-2093}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Nutrition Policy ; }, abstract = {Food production is affected by climate change, and, in turn, food production is responsible for 20-30% of greenhouse gases. The food system must increase output as the population increases and must meet nutrition and health needs while simultaneously assisting in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Good nutrition is important for combatting infection, reducing child mortality, and controlling obesity and chronic disease throughout the life course. Dietary guidelines provide advice for a healthy diet, and the main principles are now well established and compatible with sustainable development. Climate change will have a significant effect on food supply; however, with political commitment and substantial investment, projected improvements will be sufficient to provide food for the healthy diets needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Some changes will need to be made to food production, nutrient content will need monitoring, and more equitable distribution is required to meet the dietary guidelines. Increased breastfeeding rates will improve infant and adult health while helping to reduce greenhouse gases.}, }
@article {pmid33497216, year = {2021}, author = {Ralston Fonseca, F and Craig, M and Jaramillo, P and Bergés, M and Severnini, E and Loew, A and Zhai, H and Cheng, Y and Nijssen, B and Voisin, N and Yearsley, J}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {2522-2531}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.0c06547}, pmid = {33497216}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Electricity ; Southeastern United States ; Temperature ; United States ; Water ; }, abstract = {The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multimodel framework to analyze how compounding risks of climate-change impacts on demand and supply affect long-term planning decisions in the power system. In the southeast U.S., we found that compounding climate-change impacts could result in a 35% increase in installed capacity by 2050 relative to the reference case. Participation of renewables, particularly solar, in the fleet increased, driven mostly by the expected increase in summertime peak demand. Such capacity requirements would increase investment costs by approximately 31 billion (USD 2015) over the next 30 years, compared to the reference case. These changes in investment decisions align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.}, }
@article {pmid33496011, year = {2021}, author = {Lehikoinen, A and Lindström, &#xc5; and Santangeli, A and Sirkiä, PM and Brotons, L and Devictor, V and Elts, J and Foppen, RPB and Heldbjerg, H and Herrando, S and Herremans, M and Hudson, MR and Jiguet, F and Johnston, A and Lorrilliere, R and Marjakangas, EL and Michel, NL and Moshøj, CM and Nellis, R and Paquet, JY and Smith, AC and Szép, T and van Turnhout, C}, title = {Wintering bird communities are tracking climate change faster than breeding communities.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {5}, pages = {1085-1095}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13433}, pmid = {33496011}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; North America ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is driving species' distributions towards the poles and mountain tops during both non-breeding and breeding seasons, leading to changes in the composition of natural communities. However, the degree of season differences in climate-driven community shifts has not been thoroughly investigated at large spatial scales. We compared the rates of change in the community composition during both winter (non-breeding season) and summer (breeding) and their relation to temperature changes. Based on continental-scale data from Europe and North America, we examined changes in bird community composition using the community temperature index (CTI) approach and compared the changes with observed regional temperature changes during 1980-2016. CTI increased faster in winter than in summer. This seasonal discrepancy is probably because individuals are less site-faithful in winter, and can more readily shift their wintering sites in response to weather in comparison to the breeding season. Regional long-term changes in community composition were positively associated with regional temperature changes during both seasons, but the pattern was only significant during summer due to high annual variability in winter communities. Annual changes in community composition were positively associated with the annual temperature changes during both seasons. Our results were broadly consistent across continents, suggesting some climate-driven restructuring in both European and North American avian communities. Because community composition has changed much faster during the winter than during the breeding season, it is important to increase our knowledge about climate-driven impacts during the less-studied non-breeding season.}, }
@article {pmid33495891, year = {2021}, author = {Fuentes, E and Prieto, B}, title = {Recovery Capacity of Subaerial Biofilms Grown on Granite Buildings Subjected to Simulated Drought in a Climate Change Context.}, journal = {Microbial ecology}, volume = {82}, number = {3}, pages = {761-769}, pmid = {33495891}, issn = {1432-184X}, support = {BES-2017-079927//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; CGL2016-79778-R//Agencia Estatal de Investigaci&#xf3;n/ ; CGL2016-79778-R//European Regional Development Fund/ ; }, mesh = {Biofilms ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Extracellular Polymeric Substance Matrix ; Silicon Dioxide ; }, abstract = {Variations in environmental conditions in the context of climate change are expected to affect biofilm-associated organisms on granite heritage buildings. The number and duration of drought periods should be considered, as these factors will affect the availability of water for the microorganisms. In this study, mature biofilms were exposed to various drying-rewetting cycles, and the effects of water stress on the SAB and their resilience were evaluated in terms of the variation in microbial composition, extracellular polymeric substance production, and photosynthetic efficiency. The structure of the biofilm changed after exposure to drought, becoming more heterogeneous and with an increase in the carbohydrate to protein ratio, especially after the second day of total drought. YMAX and YEF parameters proved to be the most informative, showing that the photosynthetic efficiency and recovery capacity were inversely related to the duration of the drought period. Furthermore, cyanobacteria resisted drought better than algae, giving rise to a decrease in the algae to cyanobacteria ratio.}, }
@article {pmid33487144, year = {2021}, author = {Fenske, RA and Pinkerton, KE}, title = {Climate Change and the Amplification of Agricultural Worker Health Risks.}, journal = {Journal of agromedicine}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {15-17}, doi = {10.1080/1059924X.2021.1849211}, pmid = {33487144}, issn = {1545-0813}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33486565, year = {2021}, author = {Kamenya, SN and Mikwa, EO and Song, B and Odeny, DA}, title = {Genetics and breeding for climate change in Orphan crops.}, journal = {TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik}, volume = {134}, number = {6}, pages = {1787-1815}, pmid = {33486565}, issn = {1432-2242}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*genetics ; Gene Editing ; Genes, Plant ; Genomics ; *Plant Breeding ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Climate change is rapidly changing how we live, what we eat and produce, the crops we breed and the target traits. Previously underutilized orphan crops that are climate resilient are receiving much attention from the crops research community, as they are often the only crops left in the field after periods of extreme weather conditions. There are several orphan crops with incredible resilience to biotic and abiotic stresses. Some are nutritious, while others provide good sources of biofuel, medicine and other industrial raw materials. Despite these benefits, orphan crops are still lacking in important genetic and genomic resources that could be used to fast track their improvement and make their production profitable. Progress has been made in generating draft genomes of at least 28 orphan crops over the last decade, thanks to the reducing cost of sequencing. The implementation of a structured breeding program that takes advantage of additional modern crop improvement tools such as genomic selection, speed breeding, genome editing, high throughput phenotyping and breeding digitization would make rapid improvement of these orphan crops possible, but would require coordinated research investment. Other production challenges such as lack of adequate germplasm conservation, poor/non-existent seed systems and agricultural extension services, as well as poor marketing channels will also need to be improved if orphan crops were to be profitable. We review the importance of breeding orphan crops under the increasing effects of climate change, highlight existing gaps that need to be addressed and share some lessons to be learned from major crops.}, }
@article {pmid33486176, year = {2021}, author = {Peng, J and Jiang, H and Liu, Q and Green, SM and Quine, TA and Liu, H and Qiu, S and Liu, Y and Meersmans, J}, title = {Human activity vs. climate change: Distinguishing dominant drivers on LAI dynamics in karst region of southwest China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {769}, number = {}, pages = {144297}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144297}, pmid = {33486176}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation is of great significance to the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems. However, most studies focused on the overall impact over a period and rarely examined the time-lag effect of vegetation's response to climatic factors when exploring the driving mechanisms of vegetation dynamics. In this study, we identified key areas driven by either positive or negative human activities and climate change. Taking the three karst provinces of southwest China as the case study area, a Leaf Area Index (LAI)-climate model was constructed by quantifying the time-lag effect. Then the associated residual threshold was calculated to identify the vegetation change areas dominated by human activities and climate change. The results showed that, during the implementation period of ecological restoration projects from 1999 to 2015, positive impact areas of human activities were mainly distributed among the implementation areas of ecological restoration projects, accounting for 5.61% of the total area. For another, the negative impact areas were mainly distributed across the mountainous area of Yunnan Province, accounting for 1.30% of the total area. Karst landform had the greatest influence on the areas dominated by positive human activities, whereas both topography and karst landform significantly affected the areas dominated by negative human activities. Urban development level had the greatest impact on the areas dominated by climate change. The outcomes of this study provided scientific supports for the sustainable development of ecological restoration projects in China's karst region.}, }
@article {pmid33485019, year = {2021}, author = {Scanes, E and Parker, LM and Seymour, JR and Siboni, N and King, WL and Danckert, NP and Wegner, KM and Dove, MC and O'Connor, WA and Ross, PM}, title = {Climate change alters the haemolymph microbiome of oysters.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {164}, number = {}, pages = {111991}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.111991}, pmid = {33485019}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Microbiota ; *Ostreidae/genetics ; RNA, Ribosomal, 16S ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {The wellbeing of marine organisms is connected to their microbiome. Oysters are a vital food source and provide ecological services, yet little is known about how climate change such as ocean acidification and warming will affect their microbiome. We exposed the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata, to orthogonal combinations of temperature (24, 28 °C) and pCO2 (400 and 1000 μatm) for eight weeks and used amplicon sequencing of the 16S rRNA (V3-V4) gene to characterise the bacterial community in haemolymph. Overall, elevated pCO2 and temperature interacted to alter the microbiome of oysters, with a clear partitioning of treatments in CAP ordinations. Elevated pCO2 was the strongest driver of species diversity and richness and elevated temperature also increased species richness. Climate change, both ocean acidification and warming, will alter the microbiome of S. glomerata which may increase the susceptibility of oysters to disease.}, }
@article {pmid33484456, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, Y and Yu, Q and Li, J}, title = {Bioenergy research under climate change: a bibliometric analysis from a country perspective.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {21}, pages = {26427-26440}, pmid = {33484456}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {161461KYSB20170013//Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Bibliometrics ; Brazil ; China ; *Climate Change ; Germany ; India ; }, abstract = {Development of bioenergy will be a key component for meeting increasing energy demands while mitigating global warming. With the intent of identifying current topics of major interest and development of research directions in the field of bioenergy under climate change, we conducted a bibliometric analysis and network analysis from a country perspective based on 3050 articles published since 1999 derived from the Scopus database. The results indicated that USA, UK, and Germany led other countries in terms of number of publications (1006, 366, and 280 articles, respectively) and h-index (greater than 50) in this research area. The USA has also produced a large number of articles in highly respected journals. Compared with developed countries, some developing countries (e.g., China, India, and Brazil) have a larger proportion of publications which are cited less than 10 times and researchers who have academic age of 1 year. The number of publications dealing with some of these research topics coming from developing countries has lagged behind the number of similar publications coming from developed countries. In spite of this, research on sustainable energy systems is still needed for developing countries to further establish feasible systems that can effectively promote global economic development and strengthen climate change mitigation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid33481598, year = {2021}, author = {Gierczak, T and Bernard, F and Papanastasiou, DK and Burkholder, JB}, title = {Atmospheric Chemistry of c-C5HF7 and c-C5F8: Temperature-Dependent OH Reaction Rate Coefficients, Degradation Products, Infrared Spectra, and Global Warming Potentials.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {125}, number = {4}, pages = {1050-1061}, doi = {10.1021/acs.jpca.0c10561}, pmid = {33481598}, issn = {1520-5215}, abstract = {c-C5HF7 (1H-heptafluorocyclopentene) and c-C5F8 (perfluorocyclopentene) are potent greenhouse gases presently used as replacement compounds in Si etching. A thorough understanding of their potential impact on climate and air quality necessitates studies of their atmospheric reactivity, radiative properties, and atmospheric degradation pathways. The predominant atmospheric removal process for these compounds is expected to be via reaction with the OH radical. In this study, rate coefficients, k, for the gas-phase reaction of the OH radical with c-C5HF7 and c-C5F8 were measured over a range of temperatures (242-370 K) and pressures (50-100 Torr, He) using a pulsed laser photolysis-laser-induced fluorescence technique. In addition, a complementary relative rate technique, employing multiple reference compounds, was used to study the reactions between 273 and 372 K at 100 Torr (He) total pressure. Reaction rate coefficients were found to be independent of pressure over this range of conditions with k1(296 K) = (4.59 ± 0.10) × 10[-14] cm[3] molecule[-1] s[-1] and k1(T) = (4.00 ± 0.40) × 10[-13] exp(-(631 ± 30)/T) cm[3] molecule[-1] s[-1] for c-C5HF7 and k2(296 K) = (4.90 ± 0.14) × 10[-14] cm[3] molecule[-1] s[-1] and k2(T) = (3.59 ± 0.4) × 10[-13] exp(-(591 ± 25)/T) cm[3] molecule[-1] s[-1] for c-C5F8. Stable end-products were measured following the OH radical-initiated degradation of c-C5HF7 and c-C5F8 in the presence of O2. F(O)CCF2CF2CF2CH(O), CF2O, and CO2 were observed as the major end-products in the oxidation of c-C5HF7 with molar yields of 0.64, 1.27, and 0.53, respectively. For c-C5F8, F(O)CCF2CF2CF2CF(O), CF2O, and CO2 were observed with molar yields of 0.66, 0.63, and 0.43, respectively. The total carbon mass balance in both systems was 1.0 ± 0.15. The high yield of a C5-dicarbonyl end-product is consistent with a ring opening at the carbon-carbon double bond site for both c-C5HF7 and c-C5F8. A comparison of the present kinetic and degradation product results with previously published studies is presented. A rate coefficient upper limit for the gas-phase reaction of O3 with c-C5HF7 and c-C5F8 of 1 × 10[-21] cm[3] molecule[-1] s[-1] was measured as part of this work. Atmospheric lifetimes for c-C5HF7 and c-C5F8 are estimated to be 252 and 236 days, respectively. Infrared absorption spectra of c-C5HF7 and c-C5F8 were also measured and found to agree, to within 5%, with results from previous studies. The well-mixed and lifetime adjusted radiative efficiencies (RE, W m[-2] ppb[-1]) and 100 year time horizon global warming potential (GWP) for c-C5HF7 are 0.35, 0.24, and 46.7 and for c-C5F8 are 0.38, 0.25, and 46.2, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid33480391, year = {2020}, author = {Martorell, M and Ulloa, N and González, ME and Martínez-Sanguinetti, MA and Celis-Morales, C}, title = {[Obesity, malnutrition and climate change: a sindemia that Chile will have to face].}, journal = {Revista medica de Chile}, volume = {148}, number = {6}, pages = {882-884}, doi = {10.4067/S0034-98872020000600882}, pmid = {33480391}, issn = {0717-6163}, mesh = {Chile/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Malnutrition/epidemiology ; Obesity/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid33477312, year = {2021}, author = {Dakhil, MA and Halmy, MWA and Hassan, WA and El-Keblawy, A and Pan, K and Abdelaal, M}, title = {Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33477312}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {the Fast-track Research Funding Program//Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman University/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperus pingii var. pingii, J. tibetica, and J. komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16-56.1% and 20.4-38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models' applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.}, }
@article {pmid33477283, year = {2021}, author = {Pizzulli, VA and Telesca, V and Covatariu, G}, title = {Analysis of Correlation between Climate Change and Human Health Based on a Machine Learning Approach.}, journal = {Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33477283}, issn = {2227-9032}, abstract = {Climate change increasingly affects every aspect of human life. Recent studies report a close correlation with human health and it is estimated that global death rates will increase by 73 per 100,000 by 2100 due to changes in temperature. In this context, the present work aims to study the correlation between climate change and human health, on a global scale, using artificial intelligence techniques. Starting from previous studies on a smaller scale, that represent climate change and which at the same time can be linked to human health, four factors were chosen. Four causes of mortality, strongly correlated with the environment and climatic variability, were subsequently selected. Various analyses were carried out, using neural networks and machine learning to find a correlation between mortality due to certain diseases and the leading causes of climate change. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic climate change is strongly correlated with human health; some diseases are mainly related to risk factors while others require a more significant number of variables to derive a correlation. In addition, a forecast of victims related to climate change was formulated. The predicted scenario confirms that a prevalently increasing trend in climate change factors corresponds to an increase in victims.}, }
@article {pmid33474999, year = {2021}, author = {Lester, D}, title = {The Environment and Suicide - Why Suicidologists Should Support Climate Change Policies.}, journal = {Crisis}, volume = {42}, number = {2}, pages = {89-91}, doi = {10.1027/0227-5910/a000752}, pmid = {33474999}, issn = {2151-2396}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Public Health ; *Suicide Prevention ; }, }
@article {pmid33473224, year = {2021}, author = {Woolway, RI and Jennings, E and Shatwell, T and Golub, M and Pierson, DC and Maberly, SC}, title = {Lake heatwaves under climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {589}, number = {7842}, pages = {402-407}, pmid = {33473224}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; *Ecosystem ; *Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Geographic Mapping ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Lakes ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Lake ecosystems, and the organisms that live within them, are vulnerable to temperature change[1-5], including the increased occurrence of thermal extremes[6]. However, very little is known about lake heatwaves-periods of extreme warm lake surface water temperature-and how they may change under global warming. Here we use satellite observations and a numerical model to investigate changes in lake heatwaves for hundreds of lakes worldwide from 1901 to 2099. We show that lake heatwaves will become hotter and longer by the end of the twenty-first century. For the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5), the average intensity of lake heatwaves, defined relative to the historical period (1970 to 1999), will increase from 3.7 ± 0.1 to 5.4 ± 0.8 degrees Celsius and their average duration will increase dramatically from 7.7 ± 0.4 to 95.5 ± 35.3 days. In the low-greenhouse-gas-emission RCP 2.6 scenario, heatwave intensity and duration will increase to 4.0 ± 0.2 degrees Celsius and 27.0 ± 7.6 days, respectively. Surface heatwaves are longer-lasting but less intense in deeper lakes (up to 60 metres deep) than in shallower lakes during both historic and future periods. As lakes warm during the twenty-first century[7,8], their heatwaves will begin to extend across multiple seasons, with some lakes reaching a permanent heatwave state. Lake heatwaves are likely to exacerbate the adverse effects of long-term warming in lakes and exert widespread influence on their physical structure and chemical properties. Lake heatwaves could alter species composition by pushing aquatic species and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience. This in turn could threaten lake biodiversity[9] and the key ecological and economic benefits that lakes provide to society.}, }
@article {pmid33472279, year = {2021}, author = {Steynor, A and Pasquini, L and Thatcher, A and Hewitson, B}, title = {Understanding the Links Between Climate Change Risk Perceptions and the Action Response to Inform Climate Services Interventions.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {41}, number = {10}, pages = {1873-1889}, pmid = {33472279}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Africa, Eastern ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Perception ; *Risk ; }, abstract = {Understanding what motivates people to act on climate change provides an opportunity to design more effective interventions, in particular, climate services interventions, by aligning them with factors that strongly influence action. Climate change risk perceptions have been shown to underlie action on climate change. Therefore, this study performs exploratory research to understand how various determinants of risk perceptions contribute and interact to influence climate change risk perceptions and professional action on climate change in East Africa, in order to inform the context-specific design of climate services. Using data collected through a region-wide survey, a model to risk perceptions and professional action was constructed through structural equation modeling. The model elucidates the cascading effects of variables such as age, gender, education, and personal values on action. In particular, it highlights a split in motivating factors among individuals with higher levels of self-enhancing values versus those with higher levels of self-transcending values. The model also highlights the prominent role that experience of extreme weather events, psychological proximity of climate change, climate change risk perceptions, and social norms play in motivating action. The model, therefore, offers a framework for prioritizing the various factors that motivate people to take adaptation action, which, in turn, provides a basis for informing climate services development going forward.}, }
@article {pmid33467905, year = {2021}, author = {Meléndez-Martínez, AJ and Böhm, V and Borge, GIA and Cano, MP and Fikselová, M and Gruskiene, R and Lavelli, V and Loizzo, MR and Mandić, AI and Brahm, PM and Mišan, A&#x10c; and Pintea, AM and Sereikaitė, J and Vargas-Murga, L and Vlaisavljević, SS and Vulić, JJ and O'Brien, NM}, title = {Carotenoids: Considerations for Their Use in Functional Foods, Nutraceuticals, Nutricosmetics, Supplements, Botanicals, and Novel Foods in the Context of Sustainability, Circular Economy, and Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of food science and technology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {433-460}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-food-062220-013218}, pmid = {33467905}, issn = {1941-1421}, mesh = {*Carotenoids ; Climate Change ; Dietary Supplements ; *Functional Food/analysis ; }, abstract = {Carotenoids are versatile isoprenoids that are important in food quality and health promotion. There is a need to establish recommended dietary intakes/nutritional reference values for carotenoids. Research on carotenoids in agro-food and health is being propelled by the two multidisciplinary international networks, the Ibero-American Network for the Study of Carotenoids as Functional Foods Ingredients (IBERCAROT; http://www.cyted.org) and the European Network to Advance Carotenoid Research and Applications in Agro-Food and Health (EUROCAROTEN; http://www.eurocaroten.eu). In this review, considerations for their safe and sustainable use in products mostly intended for health promotion are provided. Specifically, information about sources, intakes, and factors affecting bioavailability is summarized. Furthermore, their health-promoting actions and importance in public health in relation to the contribution of reducing the risk of diverse ailments are synthesized. Definitions and regulatory and safety information for carotenoid-containing products are provided. Lastly, recent trends in research in the context of sustainable healthy diets are summarized.}, }
@article {pmid33466600, year = {2021}, author = {Wei, L and Ma, F and Du, C}, title = {Application of FTIR-PAS in Rapid Assessment of Rice Quality under Climate Change Conditions.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33466600}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {BE2017388//the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province China/ ; KFJ-STS-QYZX-046//the "STS" project from Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Fourier transform infrared photoacoustic spectroscopy (FTIR-PAS), versus attenuated total reflectance spectroscopy (FTIR-ATR) and diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRIFT), was firstly applied in quick assessment of rice quality in response to rising CO2/temperature instead of conventional time-consuming chemical methods. The influences of elevated CO2 and higher temperature were identified using FTIR-PAS spectra by principal component analysis (PCA). Variations in the rice functional groups are crucial indicators for rice identification, and the ratio of the intensities of two selected spectral bands was used for correlation analysis with starch, protein, and lipid content, and the ratios all showed a positive linear correlation (R [2] = 0.9103, R [2] = 0.9580, and R [2] = 0.9246, respectively). Subsequently, changes in nutritional components under future environmental conditions that encompass higher CO2 and temperature were evaluated, which demonstrated the potential of FTIR-PAS to detect the responses of rice to climate change, providing a valuable technique for agricultural production and food security.}, }
@article {pmid33465296, year = {2021}, author = {Hittle, KA and Kwon, ES and Coughlin, DJ}, title = {Climate change and anadromous fish: How does thermal acclimation affect the mechanics of the myotomal muscle of the Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar?.}, journal = {Journal of experimental zoology. Part A, Ecological and integrative physiology}, volume = {335}, number = {3}, pages = {311-318}, doi = {10.1002/jez.2443}, pmid = {33465296}, issn = {2471-5646}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Muscle, Skeletal/*physiology ; Salmo salar/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In response to accelerated temperature shifts due to climate change, the survival of many species will require forms of thermal acclimation to their changing environment. We were interested in how climate change will impact a commercially and recreationally important species of fish, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). As climate change alters the thermal environment of their natal streams, we asked how their muscle function will be altered by extended exposure to both warm and cold temperatures. We performed a thermal acclimation study of S. salar muscle mechanics of both fast-twitch, or white, and slow-twitch, or red, myotomal muscle bundles to investigate how temperature acclimated Atlantic salmon would respond across a range of different temperatures. Isometric contraction properties, maximum shortening velocity, and oscillatory power output were measured and compared amongst three groups of salmon-warm acclimated (20°C), cold-acclimated (2°C), and those at their rearing temperature (12°C). The Atlantic salmon showed limited thermal acclimation in their contraction kinetics, and some of the shifts in contractile properties that were observed would not be predicted to mitigate the impact of a warming environment. For instance, the maximum shortening velocity at a common test temperature was higher in the warm acclimated group and lower in the cold-acclimated group. In addition, critical swimming speed did not vary with temperature of acclimation when tested at a common temperature (12°C). Our results suggest that Atlantic salmon populations will continue to struggle in response to a warming environment.}, }
@article {pmid33462680, year = {2021}, author = {Samaddar, S and Oteng-Ababio, M and Dayour, F and Ayaribila, A and Obeng, FK and Ziem, R and Yokomatsu, M}, title = {Successful Community Participation in Climate Change Adaptation Programs: on Whose Terms?.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {67}, number = {4}, pages = {747-762}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01421-2}, pmid = {33462680}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Community Participation ; Ghana ; Humans ; Organizations ; }, abstract = {Community participation in climate change adaptation (CCA) programs has been advocated for long, but its implementation remains uncertain. There is also very little understanding and consensus on how and to what extent local communities can and should be involved in these projects. Arguably, both the concept and practice of community participation remain equivocal and contentious due to a lack of systematic effort to define the participatory framework in CCA. While the framework for community participation can be adopted from other planning and management discourses, yet they are typically expert-driven. The local communities hardly play a role in designing the framework. This study, therefore, took an alternative approach to define the meaning and implication of community participation from local communities' perspectives. To this end, we used the grounded theory qualitative research methods to survey 50 respondents across five rural communities in climate change impacted Northern Ghana. To evaluate the communities' meaningful participation in the adaptation projects, respondents suggested three critical parameters-First, community participation in a CCA project can be considered successful if the project contributes towards the livelihood security of the community. Second, the project outcome should be tangible. Third, the project should enhance the community's skills and training such that the community can run a similar project in the future without much dependence on external agencies. This study provides an alternative methodological insight on how to design and operationalize meaningful community participation in CCA that will have universal application irrespective of the geographical and socio-cultural boundaries.}, }
@article {pmid33462487, year = {2021}, author = {Mathes, GH and van Dijk, J and Kiessling, W and Steinbauer, MJ}, title = {Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {3}, pages = {304-310}, pmid = {33462487}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; Mammals ; Reptiles ; }, abstract = {Assessing extinction risk from climate drivers is a major goal of conservation science. Few studies, however, include a long-term perspective of climate change. Without explicit integration, such long-term temperature trends and their interactions with short-term climate change may be so dominant that they blur or even reverse the apparent direct relationship between climate change and extinction. Here we evaluate how observed genus-level extinctions of arthropods, bivalves, cnidarians, echinoderms, foraminifera, gastropods, mammals and reptiles in the geological past can be predicted from the interaction of long-term temperature trends with short-term climate change. We compare synergistic palaeoclimate interaction (a short-term change on top of a long-term trend in the same direction) to antagonistic palaeoclimate interaction such as long-term cooling followed by short-term warming. Synergistic palaeoclimate interaction increases extinction risk by up to 40%. The memory of palaeoclimate interaction including the climate history experienced by ancestral lineages can be up to 60 Myr long. The effect size of palaeoclimate interaction is similar to other key factors such as geographic range, abundance or clade membership. Insights arising from this previously unknown driver of extinction risk might attenuate recent predictions of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss.}, }
@article {pmid33462241, year = {2021}, author = {Boulange, J and Hanasaki, N and Yamazaki, D and Pokhrel, Y}, title = {Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {417}, pmid = {33462241}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Globally, flood risk is projected to increase in the future due to climate change and population growth. Here, we quantify the role of dams in flood mitigation, previously unaccounted for in global flood studies, by simulating the floodplain dynamics and flow regulation by dams. We show that, ignoring flow regulation by dams, the average number of people exposed to flooding below dams amount to 9.1 and 15.3 million per year, by the end of the 21[st] century (holding population constant), for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 6.0, respectively. Accounting for dams reduces the number of people exposed to floods by 20.6 and 12.9% (for RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, respectively). While environmental problems caused by dams warrant further investigations, our results indicate that consideration of dams significantly affect the estimation of future population exposure to flood, emphasizing the need to integrate them in model-based impact analysis of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33461817, year = {2021}, author = {Temino-Boes, R and García-Bartual, R and Romero, I and Romero-Lopez, R}, title = {Future trends of dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations in Northwestern Mediterranean coastal waters under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {282}, number = {}, pages = {111739}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111739}, pmid = {33461817}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Mediterranean Region ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Phytoplankton ; }, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems are amongst the most vulnerable to climate change, due to their location at the land-sea interface. In coastal waters, the nitrogen cycle can be significantly altered by rising temperatures and other factors derived from climate change, affecting phytoplankton and higher trophic levels. This research analyzes the effect of meteorological variables on dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) species in coastal inshore waters of a Northwestern Mediterranean region under climate change. We built simple mathematical schemes based on artificial neural networks (ANN), trained with field data. Then, we used regional climatic projections for the Spanish Mediterranean coast to provide inputs to the trained ANNs, and thus, allowing the estimation of future DIN trends throughout the 21st century. The results obtained indicate that nitrite and nitrate concentrations are expected to decrease mainly due to rising temperatures and decreasing continental inputs. Major changes are projected for the winter season, driven by a rise in minimum temperatures which decrease the nitrite and nitrate peaks observed at low temperatures. Ammonium concentrations are not expected to undergo a significant annual trend but may either increase or decrease during some months. These results entail a preliminary simplified approach to estimate the impact of meteorological changes on DIN concentrations in coastal waters under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33456591, year = {2020}, author = {Raducu, R and Soare, C and Chichirez, CM and Purcarea, MR}, title = {Climate Change and Social Campaigns.}, journal = {Journal of medicine and life}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {454-457}, pmid = {33456591}, issn = {1844-3117}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Social Marketing ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on humanity and nature is increasingly evident. The atmosphere and oceans have warmed, leading to rising sea levels, a sharp drop in Arctic sea ice, floods, heatwaves, and fires. Calls to action are getting stronger. Concerns about climate change have become a full social movement, stimulating climate activism from the bottom up to the world, especially among young people. Campaigns are initiated by governments and international organizations, scientists and scientific institutions, organizations, groups, and people in civil society, public intellectuals and political, religious leaders, people of culture and entertainment. These campaigns generally aim to inform, raise awareness and shape public understanding about the science, problems, and policy of climate change, with the hope that, first of all, people will change their attitudes and behavior, and secondly, will mobilize to put pressure on policymakers for effective climate policies.}, }
@article {pmid33454493, year = {2021}, author = {Ortmeyer, F and Mas-Pla, J and Wohnlich, S and Banning, A}, title = {Forecasting nitrate evolution in an alluvial aquifer under distinct environmental and climate change scenarios (Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {768}, number = {}, pages = {144463}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144463}, pmid = {33454493}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {When investigating future nitrate (NO3[-]) concentrations in groundwater, climate change has a major role as it determines the future water budget and, in turn, the conditions in the aquifer which will finally have a decisive effect on NO3[-] concentrations. In this study, the different effects on water balance and NO3[-] concentration under three projected climate scenarios - RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 - are analysed in a water protection area in the Lower Rhine Embayment in Germany. Recharge values were calculated from downscaled precipitation and temperature data for the 21st century in a water budget that considers land use in the evapotranspiration term. Nitrate concentration evolution is estimated using recharge and expected fertilization rates with a lumped-parameter model. In order to be able to map the NO3[-] concentration, the investigation area is divided into 1000 × 1000 m cells. Each cell is assigned a specific NO3[-] input and a NO3[-] degradation capacity. Results show significant variations in NO3[-] development projected with the different climate scenarios due to different temperatures and consequently actual ET, and precipitation. Nevertheless, nitrate concentrations clearly increase in all projections. The total NO3[-] mass increases most strongly with RCP 8.5 until 2099 (by 89% compared to 2020) and least with RCP 4.5 (by 50%). Further projections show a 20% reduction in agricultural NO3[-] input can reduce NO3[-] concentrations, but insufficiently to comply with drinking water guidelines in all regions and aquifers. The model indicates that NO3[-] input loads should be defined according to future recharge variations governed by climate change. Consequently, a time-varying fertilization rate specific for each region, with their own turnover time and degradation rate, must be estimated to meet pollution environmental goals.}, }
@article {pmid33454467, year = {2021}, author = {Brunner, CA and Uthicke, S and Ricardo, GF and Hoogenboom, MO and Negri, AP}, title = {Climate change doubles sedimentation-induced coral recruit mortality.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {768}, number = {}, pages = {143897}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143897}, pmid = {33454467}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Environmental Monitoring ; Geologic Sediments ; *Water Pollutants/analysis ; }, abstract = {Coral reef replenishment is threatened by global climate change and local water-quality degradation, including smothering of coral recruits by sediments generated by anthropogenic activities. Here we show that the ability of Acropora millepora recruits to remove sediments diminishes under future climate conditions, leading to increased mortality. Recruits raised under future climate scenarios for fourteen weeks (highest treatment: +1.2 °C, pCO2: 950 ppm) showed twofold higher mortality following repeated sediment deposition (50% lethal sediment concentration LC50: 14-24 mg cm[-2]) compared to recruits raised under current climate conditions (LC50: 37-51 mg cm[-2]), depending on recruit age at the time of sedimentation. Older and larger recruits were more resistant to sedimentation and only ten-week-old recruits grown under current climate conditions survived sediment loads possible during dredging operations. This demonstrates that water-quality guidelines for managing sediment concentrations will need to be climate-adjusted to protect future coral recruitment.}, }
@article {pmid33454464, year = {2021}, author = {Dahri, ZH and Ludwig, F and Moors, E and Ahmad, S and Ahmad, B and Ahmad, S and Riaz, M and Kabat, P}, title = {Climate change and hydrological regime of the high-altitude Indus basin under extreme climate scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {768}, number = {}, pages = {144467}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144467}, pmid = {33454464}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is recognized as one of the greatest challenges of 21st century. This study investigated climate and hydrological regimes of the high-altitude Indus basin for the historical period and extreme scenarios of future climate during 21st century. Improved datasets of precipitation and temperature were developed and forced to a fully-distributed physically-based energy-balance Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to simulate the water balance at regional and sub-basin scale. Relative to historical baseline, the results revealed highly contrasting signals of climate and hydrological regime changes. Against an increase of 0.6 °C during the last 40 years, the median annual air temperature is projected to increase further between 0.8 and 5.7 °C by the end of 21st century. Similarly, a decline of 11.9% in annual precipitation is recorded, but future projections are highly conflicting and spatially variable. The Karakoram region is anticipated to receive more precipitation, while SW-Hindukush and parts of W-Himalayan region may experience decline in precipitation. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate version-5 (MIROC5) generally shows increases, while Max Planck Institute Earth System Model at base resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) indicates decreases in precipitation and river inflows under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Indus-Tarbela inflows are more likely to increase compared to Kabul, Jhelum and Chenab river inflows. Substantial increase in the magnitudes of peak flows and one-month earlier attainment is projected for all river gauges. High flows are anticipated to increase under most scenarios, while low flows may decrease for MPI-ESM-LR in Jhelum, Chenab and Kabul river basins. Hence, hydrological extremes are likely to be intensified. Critical modifications in the strategies and action plans for hydropower generation, construction and operation of storage reservoirs, irrigation withdrawals, flood control and drought management will be required to optimally manage water resources in the basin.}, }
@article {pmid33454041, year = {2021}, author = {Lara-Reséndiz, RA and Galina-Tessaro, P and Sinervo, B and Miles, DB and Valdez-Villavicencio, JH and Valle-Jiménez, FI and Méndez-de La Cruz, FR}, title = {How will climate change impact fossorial lizard species? Two examples in the Baja California Peninsula.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {95}, number = {}, pages = {102811}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2020.102811}, pmid = {33454041}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Body Temperature ; California ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Lizards/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Global climate change and the associated erosion of habitat suitability are pervasive threats to biodiversity. It is critical to identify specific stressors to assess a species vulnerability to extinction, especially in species with distinctive natural histories. Here, we present a combination of field, laboratory, and modeling approaches to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on two endemic, fossorial lizards species (Anniella geronimensis and Bipes biporus) from Baja California, Mexico. We also include soil type in our models to refine the suitable areas using our mechanistic models. Results suggest that both species are at high risk of extinction by global climate change based on the thermal habitat suitability. The forecast for species persistence is most grave under the RCP8.5 scenario. On the one hand, suitable habitat for A. geronimensis diminishes at its southern distribution, but potential suitable expands towards the north. On the other hand, the suitable habitat for B. biporus will contract significantly with a concomitant reduction in its potential distribution. Because both species have low mobility and are restricted to low elevation, the potential for elevational and latitudinal dispersal to mitigate extinction risk along the Baja California Peninsula is unlikely. In addition each species has specialized thermal requirements (i.e., stenothermic) and soil type preferences to which they are adapted. Our ecophysiological models in combination with the type of soil are fundamental in developing conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid33452659, year = {2021}, author = {Lieber, M and Chin-Hong, P and Whittle, HJ and Hogg, R and Weiser, SD}, title = {The Synergistic Relationship Between Climate Change and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic: A Conceptual Framework.}, journal = {AIDS and behavior}, volume = {25}, number = {7}, pages = {2266-2277}, pmid = {33452659}, issn = {1573-3254}, support = {K24 AI134326/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology ; Africa South of the Sahara ; Climate Change ; *Epidemics ; *HIV Infections/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change and HIV/AIDS represent two of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. However, limitations in understanding the complex relationship between these syndemics continue to constrain advancements in the prevention and management of HIV/AIDS in the context of a rapidly changing climate. Here, we present a conceptual framework that identifies four pathways linking climate change with HIV/AIDS transmission and health outcomes: increased food insecurity, increased prevalence of other infectious diseases, increased human migration, and erosion of public health infrastructure. This framework is based on an in-depth literature review in PubMed and Google Scholar from June 6 to June 27, 2019. The pathways linking climate change with HIV transmission and health outcomes are complex with multiple interacting factors. Food insecurity emerged as a particularly important mediator by driving sexual risk-taking behaviours and migration, as well as by increasing susceptibility to infections that are common among people living with HIV (PLWHIV). Future interventions should focus on decreasing carbon dioxide emissions globally and increasing education and investment in adaptation strategies, particularly in those areas of sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia heavily impacted by both HIV and climate change. Environmentally sustainable interventions such as urban gardening and investing in sustainable agriculture technologies also have significant health co-benefits that may help PLWHIV adapt to the environmental consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33450977, year = {2021}, author = {Rautio, A and Kukarenko, N and Nilsson, LM and Evengard, B}, title = {Climate Change in the Arctic-The Need for a Broader Gender Perspective in Data Collection.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {33450977}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Data Collection ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Russia ; Sex Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change in the Arctic affects both environmental, animal, and human health, as well as human wellbeing and societal development. Women and men, and girls and boys are affected differently. Sex-disaggregated data collection is increasingly carried out as a routine in human health research and in healthcare analysis. This study involved a literature review and used a case study design to analyze gender differences in the roles and responsibilities of men and women residing in the Arctic. The theoretical background for gender-analysis is here described together with examples from the Russian Arctic and a literature search. We conclude that a broader gender-analysis of sex-disaggregated data followed by actions is a question of human rights and also of economic benefits for societies at large and of the quality of services as in the health care.}, }
@article {pmid33450884, year = {2021}, author = {Moyo, M and Nsahlai, I}, title = {Consequences of Increases in Ambient Temperature and Effect of Climate Type on Digestibility of Forages by Ruminants: A Meta-Analysis in Relation to Global Warming.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33450884}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {112905//National Research Council, South Africa/ ; }, abstract = {This meta-analysis evaluated the effects of ruminant feeding type, ambient temperature (AT), and climatic region on the rumen digestibility of feeds. A dataset on nylon bag degradability parameters bearing the chemical composition of roughages, grains, leaves, stems, fruits, concentrates and diets given to animals, climate type, and AT were compiled. Data were analysed using mixed model regression and simple linear regression methodologies. Negative correlations between AT and degradability parameters were observed. Potential degradability (PD) and slowly degradable fraction ('b') were higher for concentrates and mixed diets compared to roughages. Intermediate feeders had slower rates of degradation ('c') compared to grazers. Potential degradability was highest for studies carried out in cold and temperate climates compared to tropical and arid climates. A 1 °C increase in AT decreased PD by 0.39% (roughages), 0.76% (concentrates), and 2.41% (mixed diets), with an overall decrease of 0.55% for all feed types. The "b" fraction decreased by 0.1% (roughages), 1.1% (concentrates), 2.27% (mixed diets), and 0.35% (all feed types) for every 1 °C increase in AT. Increasing AT by 1 °C increased the neutral detergent fibre content of feeds by 0.4%. In conclusion, increases in AT increased the neutral detergent fibre content of feeds, lowering PD, "b", and "c" of dry matter in the rumen.}, }
@article {pmid33450592, year = {2021}, author = {Tariku, TB and Gan, KE and Tan, X and Gan, TY and Shi, H and Tilmant, A}, title = {Global warming impact to River Basin of Blue Nile and the optimum operation of its multi-reservoir system for hydropower production and irrigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {767}, number = {}, pages = {144863}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144863}, pmid = {33450592}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The water resource of the Blue Nile River basin (BNRB) has been under pressure due to growing demands from many users, and the climate change impact. Potential impact of climate change for the maximum, median and minimum projected changes in the simulated streamflow of BNRB by a hydrologic model, VIC, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, of 4 GCMs (global climate models) downscaled dynamically by a regional climate model, WRF (Weather Research Forecasting) using a one-domain framework that covers the entire NRB for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. These projected changes in streamflow were used to assess its future water allocations using a stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) algorithm and a hydro-economic model to optimize hydropower production and irrigated agriculture. Overall, it seems the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir will likely not operate at full storage level because the streamflow of BNRB is assumed to be regulated by three upstream reservoirs. The outflow from the reservoir of GERD or BNRB's annual flow at Khartoum is projected to increase under maximum, but is expected to decrease under minimum and median projected changes in streamflow for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, respectively. Given the annual net benefit obtained from hydropower production and irrigated agriculture of the reservoir is projected to increase (decrease) under the maximum (median and minimum) projected changes in streamflow, the potential climate change impact should be considered in designing and developing the future water resources of BNRB.}, }
@article {pmid33448074, year = {2021}, author = {Marolla, F and Henden, JA and Fuglei, E and Pedersen, &#xc5;&#xd8; and Itkin, M and Ims, RA}, title = {Iterative model predictions for wildlife populations impacted by rapid climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {1547-1559}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15518}, pmid = {33448074}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Svalbard ; }, abstract = {To improve understanding and management of the consequences of current rapid environmental change, ecologists advocate using long-term monitoring data series to generate iterative near-term predictions of ecosystem responses. This approach allows scientific evidence to increase rapidly and management strategies to be tailored simultaneously. Iterative near-term forecasting may therefore be particularly useful for adaptive monitoring of ecosystems subjected to rapid climate change. Here, we show how to implement near-term forecasting in the case of a harvested population of rock ptarmigan in high-arctic Svalbard, a region subjected to the largest and most rapid climate change on Earth. We fitted state-space models to ptarmigan counts from point transect distance sampling during 2005-2019 and developed two types of predictions: (1) explanatory predictions to quantify the effect of potential drivers of ptarmigan population dynamics, and (2) anticipatory predictions to assess the ability of candidate models of increasing complexity to forecast next-year population density. Based on the explanatory predictions, we found that a recent increasing trend in the Svalbard rock ptarmigan population can be attributed to major changes in winter climate. Currently, a strong positive effect of increasing average winter temperature on ptarmigan population growth outweighs the negative impacts of other manifestations of climate change such as rain-on-snow events. Moreover, the ptarmigan population may compensate for current harvest levels. Based on the anticipatory predictions, the near-term forecasting ability of the models improved nonlinearly with the length of the time series, but yielded good forecasts even based on a short time series. The inclusion of ecological predictors improved forecasts of sharp changes in next-year population density, demonstrating the value of ecosystem-based monitoring. Overall, our study illustrates the power of integrating near-term forecasting in monitoring systems to aid understanding and management of wildlife populations exposed to rapid climate change. We provide recommendations for how to improve this approach.}, }
@article {pmid33447043, year = {2020}, author = {Reed, T and Mason, LR and Ekenga, CC}, title = {Adapting to Climate Change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: Exploring Stakeholder Perspectives on River System Management and Flood Risk Reduction.}, journal = {Environmental health insights}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1178630220984153}, pmid = {33447043}, issn = {1178-6302}, abstract = {In the Midwestern United States (US), river flooding is a climate change-related hazard that poses a significant threat to health, well-being and economic stability. The 2019 Midwest floods led to major flooding at every monitoring site along the Mississippi River, set record water levels at 42 sites, and resulted in an estimated $6.2 billion in infrastructure damage and recovery costs. Although the risks associated with increasing flooding in the Midwestern US have been well recognized, less is known about the adaptation challenges and opportunities in the region, particularly in the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This exploratory study examined stakeholder perspectives on river system management, flood risk reduction, and adaptation planning in the Upper Mississippi River Basin. We conducted in-depth interviews with flood management stakeholders between August and October 2019. Interview data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Five themes emerged from the interviews: (1) River flooding in the Midwestern US is a different experience than US coastal flooding; (2) River flooding in the Midwestern US is a regional experience that requires a regional response; (3) Local actors face constrained resources for flood risk protection and recovery; (4) Differentiated responsibility across levels of governments makes recovery and response difficult to navigate; and (5) Competing stakeholder goals challenge cooperative flood hazard management. Overall, these results suggest that locally focused adaptation efforts, while perhaps appropriate for coastal communities or more urban contexts, are suboptimal strategies for communities in the flood-prone river basins of the Midwestern US. Instead, structures and support for regional collaboration should be considered and pursued.}, }
@article {pmid33446689, year = {2021}, author = {Urvois, T and Auger-Rozenberg, MA and Roques, A and Rossi, JP and Kerdelhue, C}, title = {Climate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading Xylosandrus ambrosia beetles.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1339}, pmid = {33446689}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/classification/*physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Introduced Species ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Xylosandrus compactus and X. crassiusculus are two polyphagous ambrosia beetles originating from Asia and invasive in circumtropical regions worldwide. Both species were recently reported in Italy and further invaded several other European countries in the following years. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate the suitable areas worldwide for both species under the current climate. We also made future projections for years 2050 and 2070 using 11 different General Circulation Models, for 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Our analyses showed that X. compactus has not been reported in all potentially suitable areas yet. Its current distribution in Europe is localised, whereas our results predicted that most of the periphery of the Mediterranean Sea and most of the Atlantic coast of France could be suitable. Outside Europe, our results also predicted Central America, all islands in Southeast Asia and some Oceanian coasts as suitable. Even though our results when modelling its potential distribution under future climates were more variable, the models predicted an increase in suitability poleward and more uncertainty in the circumtropical regions. For X. crassiusculus, the same method only yielded poor results, and the models thus could not be used for predictions. We discuss here these results and propose advice about risk prevention and invasion management of both species.}, }
@article {pmid33444865, year = {2021}, author = {Negev, M and Dahdal, Y and Khreis, H and Hochman, A and Shaheen, M and Jaghbir, MTA and Alpert, P and Levine, H and Davidovitch, N}, title = {Regional lessons from the COVID-19 outbreak in the Middle East: From infectious diseases to climate change adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {768}, number = {}, pages = {144434}, pmid = {33444865}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Israel/epidemiology ; Jordan/epidemiology ; Middle East/epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {Global health threats including epidemics and climate change, know no political borders and require regional collaboration if they are to be dealt with effectively. This paper starts with a review of the COVID-19 outbreak in Israel, Palestine and Jordan, in the context of the regional health systems, demography and politics. We suggest that Israel and Palestine function as one epidemiological unit, due to extensive border crossing of inhabitants and tourists, resulting in cross-border infections and potential for outbreaks' transmission. Indeed, there is a correlation between the numbers of confirmed cases with a 2-3 weeks lag. In contrast, Jordan has the ability to seal its borders and better contain the spread of the virus. We then discuss comparative public health aspects in relation to the management of COVID-19 and long term adaptation to climate change. We suggest that lessons from the current crisis can inform regional adaptation to climate change. There is an urgent need for better health surveillance, data sharing across borders, and more resilient health systems that are prepared and equipped for emergencies. Another essential and currently missing prerequisite is close cooperation within and across countries amidst political conflict, in order to protect the public health of all inhabitants of the region.}, }
@article {pmid33444127, year = {2021}, author = {Luccioni, A and Schmidt, V and Vardanyan, V and Bengio, Y and Rhyne, TM}, title = {Using Artificial Intelligence to Visualize the Impacts of Climate Change.}, journal = {IEEE computer graphics and applications}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {8-14}, doi = {10.1109/MCG.2020.3025425}, pmid = {33444127}, issn = {1558-1756}, abstract = {Public awareness and concern about climate change often do not match the magnitude of its threat to humans and our environment. One reason for this disagreement is that it is difficult to mentally simulate the effects of a process as complex as climate change and to have a concrete representation of the impact that our individual actions will have on our own future, especially if the consequences are long term and abstract. To overcome these challenges, we propose to use cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) approaches to develop an interactive personalized visualization tool, the AI climate impact visualizer. It will allow a user to enter an address-be it their house, their school, or their workplace--and it will provide them with an AI-imagined possible visualization of the future of this location in 2050 following the detrimental effects of climate change such as floods, storms, and wildfires. This image will be accompanied by accessible information regarding the science behind climate change, i.e., why extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and what kinds of changes are happening on a local and global scale.}, }
@article {pmid33439053, year = {2021}, author = {Larcombe, AN and Papini, MG and Chivers, EK and Berry, LJ and Lucas, RM and Wyrwoll, CS}, title = {Mouse Lung Structure and Function after Long-Term Exposure to an Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Level Predicted by Climate Change Modeling.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {129}, number = {1}, pages = {17001}, pmid = {33439053}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide/toxicity ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; *Lung/anatomy &amp; histology/drug effects/physiology ; Pregnancy ; Respiratory Physiological Phenomena/drug effects ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change models predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide [CO2] levels will be between 700 and 900 ppm within the next 80 y. Despite this, the direct physiological effects of exposure to slightly elevated atmospheric CO2 (as compared with ∼410 ppm experienced today), especially when exposures extend from preconception to adulthood, have not been thoroughly studied.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: In this study we aimed to assess the respiratory structure and function effects of long-term exposure to 890&#x2009;ppm CO2 from preconception to adulthood using a mouse model.<br><br>METHODS: We exposed mice to CO2 (&#x223c;890&#x2009;ppm) from prepregnancy, through the in utero and early life periods, until 3 months of age, at which point we assessed respiratory function using the forced oscillation technique, and lung structure.<br><br>RESULTS: CO2 exposure resulted in a range of respiratory impairments, particularly in female mice, including higher tissue elastance, longer chord length, and lower lung compliance. Importantly, we also assessed the lung function of the dams that gave birth to our experimental subjects. Even though these mice had been exposed to the same level of increased CO2 for a similar amount of time (&#x223c;8wk), we measured no impairments in lung function. This suggests that the early life period, when lungs are undergoing rapid growth and development, is particularly sensitive to CO2.<br><br>DISCUSSION: To the best of our knowledge, this study, for the first time, shows that long-term exposure to environmentally relevant levels of CO2 can impact respiratory function in the mouse. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7305.}, }
@article {pmid33437868, year = {2021}, author = {Ramkumar, J and Rosencranz, H and Herzog, L}, title = {Asthma Exacerbation Triggered by Wildfire: A Standardized Patient Case to Integrate Climate Change Into Medical Curricula.}, journal = {MedEdPORTAL : the journal of teaching and learning resources}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {11063}, pmid = {33437868}, issn = {2374-8265}, mesh = {*Asthma ; Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Humans ; Internal Medicine ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change presents unprecedented health threats. It is imperative that medical trainees understand the implications of climate change/planetary health on the physical and mental health and well-being of their patients. Medical professionals generally are not trained to consider climate change impacts in patient encounters. Hence, there is a need to train climate-aware providers who will be at the forefront of patient care in managing these current and emerging health impacts.<br><br>METHODS: We created a standardized patient (SP) case enhanced with details of risks and health impacts due to exposure to wildfire smoke. This session was deployed to 11 internal medicine clerkship students as part of a standard OSCE already included in our curriculum to evaluate core clinical and communication skills. Two cohorts, a group activity, and a one-on-one encounter were deployed and followed with a faculty debrief and learner assessments.<br><br>RESULTS: Students had increased awareness and knowledge of health impacts of climate change and potential actions for adaptation and mitigation. The improvements were statistically significant for the one-on-one cohort (p = .006). Postsimulation comments were favorable; students were more inclined to consider health impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities exacerbated by climate change.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Students had an increased recognition of climate change as a force impacting their patients' health which should be considered in patient care. This format allowed retention of well established curricular content, but also the inclusion of other crucial emerging issues that will impact public health locally and globally and foster the development of climate-aware health care providers.}, }
@article {pmid33436862, year = {2021}, author = {Lubinda, J and Haque, U and Bi, Y and Hamainza, B and Moore, AJ}, title = {Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {751}, pmid = {33436862}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Incidence ; Malaria/*epidemiology/parasitology/*transmission ; Models, Statistical ; Plasmodium/*isolation &amp; purification ; *Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Zambia/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence using Bayesian spatio-temporal, and negative binomial mixed regression models. We introduced the diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an alternative environmental measure to the widely used mean temperature. We found substantial sub-national near-term variations and significant associations with malaria incidence-trends. Significant spatio-temporal shifts in DTR/environmental predictors influenced malaria incidence-rates, even in areas with declining trends. We highlight the impact of seasonally sensitive DTR, especially in the first two quarters of the year and demonstrate how substantial investment in intervention programmes is negatively impacted by near-term climate change, most notably since 2010. We argue for targeted seasonally-sensitive malaria chemoprevention programmes.}, }
@article {pmid33436721, year = {2021}, author = {Jiang, R and He, W and He, L and Yang, JY and Qian, B and Zhou, W and He, P}, title = {Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {810}, pmid = {33436721}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Decision Support Techniques ; Nitrogen/*chemistry ; Seasons ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Maize (Zea mays L.) production in Northeast China is vulnerable to climate change. Thus, exploring future adaptation measures for maize is crucial to developing sustainable agriculture to ensure food security. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of climate change on maize yield and partial factor productivity of nitrogen (PFPN) and explore potential adaptation strategies in Northeast China. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model was calibrated and validated using the measurements from nine maize experiments. DSSAT performed well in simulating maize yield, biomass and N uptake for both calibration and validation periods (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) < 10%, -5% < normalized average relative error (nARE) < 5% and index of agreement (d) > 0.8). Compared to the baseline (1980-2010), the average maize yields and PFPN would decrease by 7.6-32.1% and 3.6-14.0 kg N kg[-1] respectively under future climate scenarios (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) without adaptation. Optimizing N application rate and timing, establishing rotation system with legumes, adjusting planting dates and breeding long-season cultivars could be effective adaptation strategies to climate change. This study demonstrated that optimizing agronomic crop management practices would assist to make policy development on mitigating the negative impacts of future climate change on maize production.}, }
@article {pmid33435348, year = {2021}, author = {Stewart, AE}, title = {Psychometric Properties of the Climate Change Worry Scale.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {33435348}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Anxiety ; Anxiety Disorders ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Psychometrics ; Reproducibility of Results ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change worry involves primarily verbal-linguistic thoughts about the changes that may occur in the climate system and the possible effects of these changes. Such worry is one of several possible psychological responses (e.g., fear, anxiety, depression, and trauma) to climate change. Within this article, the psychometric development of the ten-item Climate Change Worry Scale (CCWS) is detailed in three studies. The scale was developed to assess proximal worry about climate change rather than social or global impacts. Study 1 provided evidence that the CCWS items were internally consistent, constituted a single factor, and that the facture structure of the items was invariant for men and women. The results from Study 1 also indicated a good fit with a Rasch model of the items. Study 2 affirmed the internal consistency of the CCWS items and indicated that peoples' responses to the measure were temporally stable over a two-week test-retest interval (r = 0.91). Study 3 provided support for the convergent and divergent validity of the CCWS through its pattern of correlations with several established clinical and weather-related measures. The limitations of the studies and the possible uses of the CCWS were discussed. The current work represents a starting point.}, }
@article {pmid33434842, year = {2021}, author = {Shi, L and Zhang, J and Yao, F and Zhang, D and Guo, H}, title = {Drivers to dust emissions over dust belt from 1980 to 2018 and their variation in two global warming phases.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {767}, number = {}, pages = {144860}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144860}, pmid = {33434842}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Dust storms are one of the major disasters in arid and semi-arid regions. Understanding the impact factors is crucial for early warning and disaster mitigation. Many factors have been affecting the spatiotemporal patterns of dust storms. However, the relative importance of those factors to dust emissions in recent 40 years over the whole dust belt has not been well documented. This study explored the relative importance of those factors to the interannual variation in dust emissions over the whole dust belt. The difference in the primary contributors over two global warming phases was compared to investigate the association of dust emission trend with global warming. The results indicated that the wind regimes, such as the nocturnal low-level jet, were key factors to the wintertime dust emissions over the Sahel. The springtime dust storms related to cold air and cyclones primarily occurred in the southern coast of the Mediterranean and northwestern China. The cold high and heat low were typical mechanisms for the summertime dust emissions, which frequently formed in western North Africa, the Middle East, and northwestern Indian subcontinent. Whereas the land cover and drought conditions play significant roles in the relatively wetter regions, i.e., the southern coast of the Mediterranean, the Ustyurt Plateau, the northwest coast of Indian Ocean, the Thar desert and the Taklimakan desert. The wintertime global warming coincided well with the decreasing trend of dust emissions over the dust sources inland with a more significant effect seen in Asia. The positive anomalies of summertime dust emissions were primarily found over the dust sources in the low-lying coastal areas on the foot of high mountains. Understanding the relative importance of those drivers to dust emission trends and their variation under different warming periods can improve the prediction of dust storm evolutions and mitigate their impacts under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33434424, year = {2020}, author = {Kim, S and Kim, SY and Oh, J and Chae, Y and Park, J and Kim, D and Kim, YM}, title = {Effects of the 2018 heat wave on health in the elderly: implications for adaptation strategies to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental analysis, health and toxicology}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {e2020024-0}, pmid = {33434424}, issn = {2671-9525}, abstract = {There has been growing concern over the effects of heat waves on health. However, the effects of heat waves on the health of individuals in vulnerable groups have rarely been examined. We aimed to investigate the acute health effects of heat waves in elderly individuals living in rural areas and to survey their adaptation capacity. Repeated measurements of body temperature (BT), blood pressure, sleep disturbance, and indoor temperature were conducted up to six times for each of 104 elderly individuals living in rural areas of South Korea during the 2018 heat wave. Changes in BT, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) according to variations in indoor and outdoor temperature were analyzed using linear mixed effect models controlling for age, sex, smoking, and drug use. We also surveyed heat wave adaptation capacity, heat wave shelters, and self-reported health problems. The average indoor temperature measured during the study period was 30.5°C (range: 22.9-38.3°C) and that of ambient temperature was 30.6°C (range: 24.6-36.3°C). BT significantly increased with indoor and outdoor temperatures. The effect on BT was greater in elderly women and the elderly with hypertension. DBP generally decreased with increasing indoor temperature, though the correlation was only statistically significant among the elderly with hypertension. Only 22 (21.2%) individuals used air conditioners during the heat wave. Most did not use an air conditioner mainly to avoid high electricity costs. Of the participants, 58.7% reported experiencing sleep disturbance, which was the most frequent self-reported health problem. Elderly individuals living in rural areas are directly exposed to high temperatures during heat waves, and their vital signs are sensitive to increases in indoor temperature due to poor adaptation capacity. Well-designed strategies for alleviating health-related stress during heat waves are necessary.}, }
@article {pmid33432023, year = {2021}, author = {Pang, SEH and De Alban, JDT and Webb, EL}, title = {Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {276}, pmid = {33432023}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Philippines ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Southeast Asian forests are dominated by the tree family Dipterocarpaceae, whose abundance and diversity are key to maintaining the structure and function of tropical forests. Like most biodiversity, dipterocarps are threatened by deforestation and climate change, so it is crucial to understand the potential impacts of these threats on current and future dipterocarp distributions. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) for 19 species of dipterocarps in the Philippines, which were projected onto current and two 2070 representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Current land cover was incorporated as a post-hoc correction to restrict projections onto intact habitats. Land cover correction alone reduced current species distributions by a median 67%, and within protected areas by 37%. After land cover correction, climate change reduced distributions by a median 16% (RCP 4.5) and 27% (RCP 8.5) at the national level, with similar losses in protected areas. There was a detectable upward elevation shift of species distributions, consisting of suitable habitat losses below 300 m and gains above 600 m. Species-rich stable areas of continued habitat suitability (i.e., climate macrorefugia) fell largely outside current delineations of protected areas, indicating a need to improve protected area planning. This study highlights how SDMs can provide projections that can inform protected area planning in the tropics.}, }
@article {pmid33431570, year = {2021}, author = {Høye, TT and Loboda, S and Koltz, AM and Gillespie, MAK and Bowden, JJ and Schmidt, NM}, title = {Nonlinear trends in abundance and diversity and complex responses to climate change in Arctic arthropods.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {33431570}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Arthropods ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Time series data on arthropod populations are critical for understanding the magnitude, direction, and drivers of change. However, most arthropod monitoring programs are short-lived and restricted in taxonomic resolution. Monitoring data from the Arctic are especially underrepresented, yet critical to uncovering and understanding some of the earliest biological responses to rapid environmental change. Clear imprints of climate on the behavior and life history of some Arctic arthropods have been demonstrated, but a synthesis of population-level abundance changes across taxa is lacking. We utilized 24 y of abundance data from Zackenberg in High-Arctic Greenland to assess trends in abundance and diversity and identify potential climatic drivers of abundance changes. Unlike findings from temperate systems, we found a nonlinear pattern, with total arthropod abundance gradually declining during 1996 to 2014, followed by a sharp increase. Family-level diversity showed the opposite pattern, suggesting increasing dominance of a small number of taxa. Total abundance masked more complicated trajectories of family-level abundance, which also frequently varied among habitats. Contrary to expectation in this extreme polar environment, winter and fall conditions and positive density-dependent feedbacks were more common determinants of arthropod dynamics than summer temperature. Together, these data highlight the complexity of characterizing climate change responses even in relatively simple Arctic food webs. Our results underscore the need for data reporting beyond overall trends in biomass or abundance and for including basic research on life history and ecology to achieve a more nuanced understanding of the sensitivity of Arctic and other arthropods to global changes.}, }
@article {pmid33431564, year = {2021}, author = {Raven, PH and Wagner, DL}, title = {Agricultural intensification and climate change are rapidly decreasing insect biodiversity.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {33431564}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/*history ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; History, 15th Century ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; History, Ancient ; History, Medieval ; Humans ; *Insecta ; }, abstract = {Major declines in insect biomass and diversity, reviewed here, have become obvious and well documented since the end of World War II. Here, we conclude that the spread and intensification of agriculture during the past half century is directly related to these losses. In addition, many areas, including tropical mountains, are suffering serious losses because of climate change as well. Crops currently occupy about 11% of the world's land surface, with active grazing taking place over an additional 30%. The industrialization of agriculture during the second half of the 20th century involved farming on greatly expanded scales, monoculturing, the application of increasing amounts of pesticides and fertilizers, and the elimination of interspersed hedgerows and other wildlife habitat fragments, all practices that are destructive to insect and other biodiversity in and near the fields. Some of the insects that we are destroying, including pollinators and predators of crop pests, are directly beneficial to the crops. In the tropics generally, natural vegetation is being destroyed rapidly and often replaced with export crops such as oil palm and soybeans. To mitigate the effects of the Sixth Mass Extinction event that we have caused and are experiencing now, the following will be necessary: a stable (and almost certainly lower) human population, sustainable levels of consumption, and social justice that empowers the less wealthy people and nations of the world, where the vast majority of us live, will be necessary.}, }
@article {pmid33431560, year = {2021}, author = {Halsch, CA and Shapiro, AM and Fordyce, JA and Nice, CC and Thorne, JH and Waetjen, DP and Forister, ML}, title = {Insects and recent climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {33431560}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Butterflies ; California ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Insects have diversified through more than 450 million y of Earth's changeable climate, yet rapidly shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation now pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here, we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared with changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions. We also consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.}, }
@article {pmid33429921, year = {2021}, author = {Agudelo, A and Carvajal, M and Martinez-Ballesta, MDC}, title = {Halophytes of the Mediterranean Basin-Underutilized Species with the Potential to Be Nutritious Crops in the Scenario of the Climate Change.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33429921}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {RTC-2015-3536-2//Ministerio de Agricultura y Pesca, Alimentaci&#xf3;n y Medio Ambiente/ ; }, abstract = {Halophyte plants are adapted to saline environments and represent a novel type of crops given their possible uses at both culinary and industrial levels. In this work, the nutritional quality of different Mediterranean halophyte species, Atriplex halimus, Salicornia fruticosa, and Cakile maritima, was evaluated under conditions of high salinity. For this, plants were grown at different NaCl concentrations (0, 100, 200, and 300 mM) and the contents of proteins, total lipids, polyphenols, and mineral elements were analyzed as well as growth. Of the three species, C. maritima was the most sensitive to salt stress and therefore showed the highest phenolic compounds content. By contrast, whereas salinity increased the amounts of proteins and phenolics with respect to the control in A. halimus and S. fruticosa, it decreased them in C. maritima. Plants of A. halimus accumulated higher amounts of Na[+] in their leaves, but the level of this ion, considering human consumption, was below that of other culinary halophyte species. In conclusion, all the results indicate that these three halophyte species grown at high salt levels represent optimal crops for-new foodstuff-production as green salt or spice due to their nutritional potential.}, }
@article {pmid33429281, year = {2021}, author = {Zhao, W and Yu, X and Jiao, C and Xu, C and Liu, Y and Wu, G}, title = {Increased association between climate change and vegetation index variation promotes the coupling of dominant factors and vegetation growth.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {767}, number = {}, pages = {144669}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144669}, pmid = {33429281}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Vegetation productivity dynamics are closely related to climate change, and water availability determines vegetation growth in water-limited ecosystems. Nevertheless, how changes in the interactions between climatic factors and vegetation activity variation regulate the relationship between their trends remains unclear. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is an effective proxy of vegetation growth. First, we investigated the NDVI trends, and the results revealed a vegetation activity with weaker greening and greater spatial heterogeneity after an obvious land-cover breakpoint in 1999 compared with that before 1999 in northwest China. Notably, the Loess Plateau greatly led the greenness trends, but the Tibet Plateau showed mean browning after 1999, which implied that the coupling of climate change and vegetation trends varied with spatio-temporal changes. Subsequently, using the Geographical Detector Method (GDM), we quantified and compared the association between climate change and the interannual variability of NDVI in the two stages. Vegetation productivity variation is more closely related to changes in climatic factors after 1999 compared with that before 1999. Precipitation (PPT) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) are the primary constraints to vegetation growth in both stages. Patterns in NDVI trend increases are consistent with those of increased PPT and decreased VPD and vice versa after 1999. However, the same patterns were not observed before 1999 because of the weak association between climate change and NDVI variation. This implicated a great significance of the association between climate change and changes in vegetation activity for the prediction of potential carbon sequestration due to the shift of dominant factors and their trends under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33428910, year = {2021}, author = {Musacchio, A and Andrade, L and O'Neill, E and Re, V and O'Dwyer, J and Hynds, PD}, title = {Planning for the health impacts of climate change: Flooding, private groundwater contamination and waterborne infection - A cross-sectional study of risk perception, experience and behaviours in the Republic of Ireland.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {194}, number = {}, pages = {110707}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2021.110707}, pmid = {33428910}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Floods ; *Groundwater ; Humans ; Ireland ; Perception ; Water Supply ; *Waterborne Diseases ; }, abstract = {The frequency and severity of flooding events will increase over the coming decades due to global climate change. While close attention has typically been paid to infrastructural and environmental outcomes of flood events, the potential adverse human health consequences associated with post-event consumption from private groundwater sources have received minimal attention, leading to a poor understanding of private well users' preparedness and the drivers of positive behavioural adoption. The current study sought to quantify the capacity of private well users to cope with flood-triggered contamination risks and identify the social psychological determinants of proactive attitudes in the Republic of Ireland, using a cross-sectional questionnaire incorporating two distinct models of health behaviour, the Health Belief Model and Risk-Attitude-Norms-Ability-Self Regulation model. Adoption of healthy behaviours prior to flooding was evaluated with respect to respondents' risk exposure, risk experience and risk perception, in addition to systematic supply stewardship under normal conditions. Associations between adoption of protective behaviours and perception, experience and socio-demographic factors were evaluated through multinomial and multiple logistic regressions, while a multi-model inferential approach was employed with the predictors of health behaviour models. Findings suggest that floods are not considered likely to occur, nor were respondents worried about their occurrence, with 72.5% of respondents who reported previous flooding experience failing to adopt protective actions. Prior experience of well water contamination increased adoption of proactive attitudes when flooding occurred (+47%), with a failure to adopt healthy behaviours higher among rural non-agricultural residents (136%). Low levels of preparedness to deal with flood-related contamination risks are a side-effect of the general lack of appropriate well stewardship under normal conditions; just 10.1% of respondents adopted both water treatment and frequent testing, in concurrence with limited risk perception and poor awareness of the nexus between risk factors (e.g. floods, contamination sources) and groundwater quality. Perceived risk, personal norms and social norms were the best predictors of protective behaviour adoption and should be considered when developing future awareness campaigns.}, }
@article {pmid33428789, year = {2021}, author = {Lauringson, M and Nousiainen, I and Kahar, S and Burimski, O and Gross, R and Kaart, T and Vasemägi, A}, title = {Climate change-driven disease in sympatric hosts: Temporal dynamics of parasite burden and proliferative kidney disease in wild brown trout and Atlantic salmon.}, journal = {Journal of fish diseases}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {689-699}, doi = {10.1111/jfd.13330}, pmid = {33428789}, issn = {1365-2761}, support = {IUT8-2//Estonian Ministry of Education and Research/ ; PRG852//Eesti Teadusagentuur/ ; 266321//Academy of Finland/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fish Diseases/*parasitology ; Kidney Diseases/parasitology/*veterinary ; Myxozoa/*physiology ; Parasitic Diseases, Animal/*parasitology ; *Salmo salar ; Sympatry ; Time Factors ; *Trout ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is altering the abundance and spread of various parasites, which has important consequences not only for host-parasite interactions but also for the relationships between different host species. Here, we focus on the myxozoan endoparasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae that causes temperature-dependent proliferative kidney disease (PKD) in salmonids. We characterized the temporal changes in the parasite load and the severity of PKD signs (renal hyperplasia, haematocrit) in two sympatric populations of wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). We found that both the parasite load and disease signs vary considerably between individuals, species, rivers and sampling periods. We showed that Atlantic salmon was able to slow down the initial parasite proliferation rate and subsequently tolerate high parasite burden without obvious disease signs. In contrast, the initial parasite proliferation rate was much higher in brown trout, which was followed by the development of severe PKD signs. Thus, the speed of parasite proliferation, rather than the absolute number of the parasites in the host kidney, may play an important role in interspecific variation in PKD susceptibility. To conclude, this study illustrates the usefulness of temporal perspective for understanding host defence mechanisms and climate change-mediated impacts in the wild.}, }
@article {pmid33428648, year = {2021}, author = {Lawrence, D and Palmisano, A and de Gruchy, MW}, title = {Collapse and continuity: A multi-proxy reconstruction of settlement organization and population trajectories in the Northern Fertile Crescent during the 4.2kya Rapid Climate Change event.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {e0244871}, pmid = {33428648}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Cities ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Population Dynamics ; Spatial Analysis ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The rise and fall of ancient societies have been attributed to rapid climate change events. One of the most discussed of these is the 4.2kya event, a period of increased aridity and cooling posited as the cause of societal changes across the globe, including the collapse of the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia. Studies seeking to correlate social and climatic changes around the 4.2kya event have tended to focus either on highly localized analyses of specific sites or surveys or more synthetic overviews at pan-continental scales, and temporally on the event and its aftermath. Here we take an empirical approach at a large spatial scale to investigate trends in population and settlement organization across the entirety of Northern Fertile Crescent (Northern Mesopotamia and the Northern Levant) from 6,000 to 3,000 cal BP. We use Summed Probability Distributions of radiocarbon dates and data from eighteen archaeological surveys as proxies for population, and a dataset of all settlements over ten hectares in size as a proxy for the degree of urbanization. The goal is to examine the spatial and temporal impact of the 4.2kya event and to contextualize it within longer term patterns of settlement. We find that negative trends are visible during the event horizon in all three proxies. However, these occur against a long-term trend of increased population and urbanization supported through unsustainable overshoot and the exploitation of a drier zone with increased risk of crop failure. We argue that the 4.2kya event occurred during a period of unprecedented urban and rural growth which may have been unsustainable even without an exogenous climate forcing.}, }
@article {pmid33427946, year = {2021}, author = {Anderson, V and Leung, ACW and Mehdipoor, H and Jänicke, B and Milošević, D and Oliveira, A and Manavvi, S and Kabano, P and Dzyuban, Y and Aguilar, R and Agan, PN and Kunda, JJ and Garcia-Chapeton, G and de França Carvalho Fonsêca, V and Nascimento, ST and Zurita-Milla, R}, title = {Technological opportunities for sensing of the health effects of weather and climate change: a state-of-the-art-review.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {65}, number = {6}, pages = {779-803}, pmid = {33427946}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Meteorology ; Plants ; Technology ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Sensing and measuring meteorological and physiological parameters of humans, animals, and plants are necessary to understand the complex interactions that occur between atmospheric processes and the health of the living organisms. Advanced sensing technologies have provided both meteorological and biological data across increasingly vast spatial, spectral, temporal, and thematic scales. Information and communication technologies have reduced barriers to data dissemination, enabling the circulation of information across different jurisdictions and disciplines. Due to the advancement and rapid dissemination of these technologies, a review of the opportunities for sensing the health effects of weather and climate change is necessary. This paper provides such an overview by focusing on existing and emerging technologies and their opportunities and challenges for studying the health effects of weather and climate change on humans, animals, and plants.}, }
@article {pmid33426012, year = {2020}, author = {Shrestha, S and Barratt, A and Fox, NJ and Vosough Ahmadi, B and Hutchings, MR}, title = {Financial Impacts of Liver Fluke on Livestock Farms Under Climate Change-A Farm Level Assessment.}, journal = {Frontiers in veterinary science}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {564795}, pmid = {33426012}, issn = {2297-1769}, abstract = {Liver fluke infection (fascioliasis) is a parasitic disease which affects the health and welfare of ruminants. It is a concern for the livestock industry and is considered as a growing threat to the industry because changing climatic conditions are projected to be more favorable to increased frequency and intensity of liver fluke outbreaks. Recent reports highlighted that the incidence and geographic range of liver fluke has increased in the UK over the last decade and estimated to increase the average risk of liver fluke in the UK due to increasing temperature and rainfall. This paper explores financial impacts of the disease with and without climate change effects on Scottish livestock farms using a farm-level economic model. The model is based on farming system analysis and uses linear programming technique to maximize farm net profit within farm resources. Farm level data from a sample of 160 Scottish livestock farms is used under a no disease baseline scenario and two disease scenarios (with and without climate change). These two disease scenarios are compared with the baseline scenario to estimate the financial impact of the disease at farm levels. The results suggest a 12% reduction in net profit on an average dairy farm compared to 6% reduction on an average beef farm under standard disease conditions. The losses increase by 2-fold on a dairy farm and 6-fold on a beef farm when climate change effects are included with disease conditions on farms. There is a large variability within farm groups with profitable farms incurring relatively lesser economic losses than non-profitable farms. There is a substantial increase in number of vulnerable farms both in dairy (+20%) and beef farms (+27%) under the disease alongside climate change conditions.}, }
@article {pmid33424494, year = {2020}, author = {Morelli, TL and Barrows, CW and Ramirez, AR and Cartwright, JM and Ackerly, DD and Eaves, TD and Ebersole, JL and Krawchuk, MA and Letcher, BH and Mahalovich, MF and Meigs, GW and Michalak, JL and Millar, CI and Quiñones, RM and Stralberg, D and Thorne, JH}, title = {Climate-change refugia: biodiversity in the slow lane.}, journal = {Frontiers in ecology and the environment}, volume = {18}, number = {5}, pages = {228-234}, pmid = {33424494}, issn = {1540-9295}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate-change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate-change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long-term, network-based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as "slow lanes" rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.}, }
@article {pmid33423843, year = {2021}, author = {Singh, RK and Singh, A and Zander, KK and Mathew, S and Kumar, A}, title = {Measuring successful processes of knowledge co-production for managing climate change and associated environmental stressors: Adaptation policies and practices to support Indian farmers.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {282}, number = {}, pages = {111679}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111679}, pmid = {33423843}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Humans ; India ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Poor access to external resources, and a lack of affordable technologies compatible with socio-economic and ecological settings of rural livelihoods lead to high vulnerability of subsistence farmers to climate change and associated environmental stressors. Traditional knowledge (TK) plays a pivotal role in improving the adaptive capacity of such farmers to cope with these stressors. In India, most of the policies aiming to improve farmers' adaptive capacity are based on a top-down approach and barely consider farmers' TK. Policies can be made more inclusive by mainstreaming stakeholders' perspectives, an approach termed as knowledge co-production. Our study uses a knowledge co-production framework to (i) assess the current state of emphasis on TK and knowledge co-production processes in Indian policies on agricultural adaptation to climate change and associated environmental stressors, (ii) understand the status of TK-led knowledge co-production at the practice level, and (iii) assess the successes and gaps in incorporating TK in agricultural adaptation at the policy and practice levels to manage these stressors. Based on a systematic literature review, we found that despite emphasis on integration of TK, no Indian policy was successful in terms of stakeholder participation and in covering various dimensions of knowledge co-production. Most of the policies covered either two (knowledge gathering and application) or three (gathering, integration and application) dimensions. The term TK was also not clearly defined and it was unclear how to mainstream it into the process for successful outcomes. Co-production process was adjudged to be fairly successful at the practice level in some of the sectors (e.g., management of soil and water resources) where most of the dimensions were covered and stakeholders participated in various steps of co-production. There were significant differences in the success of co-production within (e.g., crop varieties) and between (e.g., crop and natural resource management) the sectors. We found a considerable gap at policy and practice levels on success of knowledge co-production. Insights from the study could help policy-makers to improve policies for the agricultural sector to better adapt to climate change and associated environmental stressors through the recognition and integration of farmers' TK.}, }
@article {pmid33421251, year = {2021}, author = {Ellis, CJ and Eaton, S}, title = {Microclimates hold the key to spatial forest planning under climate change: Cyanolichens in temperate rainforest.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {9}, pages = {1915-1926}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15514}, pmid = {33421251}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Esm&#xe9;e Fairbairn Foundation/ ; //Scottish Government/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Microclimate ; *Rainforest ; Scotland ; Trees ; }, abstract = {There is deepening interest in how microclimatic refugia can reduce species threat, if suitable climatic conditions are maintained locally, despite global climate change. Microclimates are a particularly important consideration in topographically heterogeneous landscapes, while in some habitats, such as forests and woodlands, microclimates are also extremely labile and affected by management practices that could consequently be used to offset climate change impact. This study explored a conservation priority guild-cyanolichen epiphytes in temperate rainforest-quantifying the niche response to macroclimate, and landscape or woodland stand structures that determine the microclimate. Based on epiphyte survey in a core region of European temperate rainforest (western Scotland), a 'random forest' machine-learning model confirmed a strong cyanolichen response to summer dryness, as well as the effects of distance to running water, topographic heatload and tree species identity, which modify the local moisture regime and/or lichen growth rates. By quantifying this response to macroclimate, landscape and stand structures, it was possible to estimate an extent to which woodland may be expanded in the future, to offset a negative effect of increasing summer dryness projected through to the 2080s. Using current policy as a yardstick, sufficient woodland expansion could be delivered relatively quickly for median impacted sites, but with times to woodland delivery extending over 10, 20 and 25 years for sites at the 75th, 90th and 95th percentiles of cyanolichen decline. Furthermore, the extent of new woodland required, and delivery times, increase almost threefold on average, as new woodland becomes distributed over wider riparian zones. These contrasting implications emphasize an urgent need for afforestation that achieves targeted spatial planning responsive to microclimates as refugia.}, }
@article {pmid33421152, year = {2021}, author = {Ettinger, AK and Buonaiuto, DM and Chamberlain, CJ and Morales-Castilla, I and Wolkovich, EM}, title = {Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {230}, number = {2}, pages = {462-474}, doi = {10.1111/nph.17172}, pmid = {33421152}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Photoperiod ; Plants ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change causes both temporal (e.g. advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.g. range expansion poleward) species shifts, which affect the photoperiod experienced at critical developmental stages ('experienced photoperiod'). As photoperiod is a common trigger of seasonal biological responses - affecting woody plant spring phenology in 87% of reviewed studies that manipulated photoperiod - shifts in experienced photoperiod may have important implications for future plant distributions and fitness. However, photoperiod has not been a focus of climate change forecasting to date, especially for early-season ('spring') events, often assumed to be driven by temperature. Synthesizing published studies, we find that impacts on experienced photoperiod from temporal shifts could be orders of magnitude larger than from spatial shifts (1.6 h of change for expected temporal vs 1 min for latitudinal shifts). Incorporating these effects into forecasts is possible by leveraging existing experimental data; we show that results from growth chamber experiments on woody plants often have data relevant for climate change impacts, and suggest that shifts in experienced photoperiod may increasingly constrain responses to additional warming. Further, combining modeling approaches and empirical work on when, where and how much photoperiod affects phenology could rapidly advance our understanding and predictions of future spatio-temporal shifts from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33420514, year = {2021}, author = {Massel, K and Lam, Y and Wong, ACS and Hickey, LT and Borrell, AK and Godwin, ID}, title = {Hotter, drier, CRISPR: the latest edit on climate change.}, journal = {TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik}, volume = {134}, number = {6}, pages = {1691-1709}, pmid = {33420514}, issn = {1432-2242}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *CRISPR-Cas Systems ; *Climate Change ; Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats ; Crops, Agricultural/*genetics ; Edible Grain/*genetics ; *Gene Editing ; Hot Temperature ; Phenotype ; Plant Breeding ; }, abstract = {Integrating CRISPR/Cas9 genome editing into modern breeding programs for crop improvement in cereals. Global climate trends in many agricultural regions have been rapidly changing over the past decades, and major advances in global food systems are required to ensure food security in the face of these emerging challenges. With increasing climate instability due to warmer temperatures and rising CO2 levels, the productivity of global agriculture will continue to be negatively impacted. To combat these growing concerns, creative approaches will be required, utilising all the tools available to produce more robust and tolerant crops with increased quality and yields under more extreme conditions. The integration of genome editing and transgenics into current breeding strategies is one promising solution to accelerate genetic gains through targeted genetic modifications, producing crops that can overcome the shifting climate realities. This review focuses on how revolutionary genome editing tools can be directly implemented into breeding programs for cereal crop improvement to rapidly counteract many of the issues affecting agriculture production in the years to come.}, }
@article {pmid33419580, year = {2021}, author = {Weinert, M and Mathis, M and Kröncke, I and Pohlmann, T and Reiss, H}, title = {Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {163}, number = {}, pages = {105230}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105230}, pmid = {33419580}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; North Sea ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global threat for marine ecosystems, their biodiversity and consequently ecosystem services. In the marine realm, marine protected areas (MPAs) were designated to counteract regional pressures, but they might be ineffective to protect vulnerable species and habitats, if their distribution is affected by global climate change. We used six Species Distribution Models (GLM, MARS, FDA, RF, GBM, MAXENT) to project changes in the distribution of eight benthic indicator and key species under climate change in the North Sea MPAs for 2050 and 2099. The projected distribution area of most species will be stable or even increase within the MPAs between 2001 and 2050. Thereafter, the distribution area decreased, especially within MPAs in the central North Sea by 2099, and some key species even disappeared from the MPAs. Consequently, the monitoring and protection of benthic species might not be possible within static MPA borders under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33417823, year = {2021}, author = {Gilbert, L}, title = {The Impacts of Climate Change on Ticks and Tick-Borne Disease Risk.}, journal = {Annual review of entomology}, volume = {66}, number = {}, pages = {373-388}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-ento-052720-094533}, pmid = {33417823}, issn = {1545-4487}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Tick-Borne Diseases ; *Ticks ; }, abstract = {Ticks exist on all continents and carry more zoonotic pathogens than any other type of vector. Ticks spend most of their lives in the external environment away from the host and are thus expected to be affected by changes in climate. Most empirical and theoretical studies demonstrate or predict range shifts or increases in ticks and tick-borne diseases, but there can be a lot of heterogeneity in such predictions. Tick-borne disease systems are complex, and determining whether changes are due to climate change or other drivers can be difficult. Modeling studies can help tease apart and understand the roles of different drivers of change. Predictive models can also be invaluable in projecting changes according to different climate change scenarios. However, validating these models remains challenging, and estimating uncertainty in predictions is essential. Another focus for future research should be assessing the resilience of ticks and tick-borne pathogens to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33417433, year = {2021}, author = {Pfadt-Trilling, AR and Volk, TA and Fortier, MP}, title = {Climate Change Impacts of Electricity Generated at a Waste-to-Energy Facility.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, pages = {1436-1445}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.0c03477}, pmid = {33417433}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Electricity ; *Refuse Disposal ; Solid Waste/analysis ; Waste Disposal Facilities ; }, abstract = {Waste-to-energy (WTE) facilities combust both biogenic and nonbiogenic materials comprising municipal solid waste (MSW) in addition to managing waste, leading to a lack of clarity on the life cycle climate change impact (LCCCI) as an electricity generator. In order to investigate the LCCCI of this resource, a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) of a WTE facility in Jamesville, NY, was performed utilizing system expansion to account for avoided landfilling emissions, additional metals recycling, and the loss of potential electricity generation from landfill gas. The LCCCI of electricity from this WTE facility ranges from 0.664 to 0.951 kg CO2eq/kWh before system expansion, which reduced the impact to -0.280 to 0.593 kg CO2eq/kWh when accounting for avoided waste management emissions. Combustion is the leading contributor of GHG emissions from cradle-to-gate, and sensitivity analysis indicates that the nonbiogenic fraction of the waste most significantly influences the LCCCI before including cobenefits. The fraction of methane from landfills that is not captured is the most influential variable under system expansion. Before system expansion, the LCCCI of this system is comparable to that of electricity from fossil fuels. With system expansion, the LCCCI ranges from below that of renewable energy to comparable to natural gas based electricity. These results disagree with claims in the reviewed literature that WTE can avoid GHG emissions overall, although avoided emissions reduce the magnitude of its impact.}, }
@article {pmid33412359, year = {2021}, author = {Kc, S and Shrestha, S and Ninsawat, S and Chonwattana, S}, title = {Predicting flood events in Kathmandu Metropolitan City under climate change and urbanisation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {281}, number = {}, pages = {111894}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111894}, pmid = {33412359}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Floods ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Urbanisation and climate change collectively impose the threat of urban flood. The impervious transformation and changes in local climatic conditions increase the risk of frequent pluvial flooding in Kathmandu. Therefore, this study aims to assess the integrated impact of urbanisation and climate change on pluvial flooding in Kathmandu Metropolitan City, using the Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model. The future daily rainfall from three Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the observed daily data has been disaggregated to hourly series using temporal rainfall disaggregation. The result shows that the combined impact on pluvial flood is likely to intensify with relatively more contribution from climate change. The CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM under the RCP 4.5 scenario projects the maximum increase (60-90%) in flood volume for current (75%) and extreme (90%) imperviousness, under a 2-year and 20-year return period (RP) with the extent of the flood area increasing more than the depth. For a 2-year RP, areas with a depth of 0.10-0.25 m are likely to expand while those from 0.25 to 0.40 m in depth are projected to have more velocity, and these trends are expected to be magnified for higher RPs. The study shows that even though urbanisation contributes less to urban pluvial flood, it can be a catalyst for exaggerating other factors and implementing management measures. For instance, the application of small-scale rainwater harvesting, and overflow storage reduced the runoff, thereby reducing the flood volume by 20-35%. Furthermore, the findings highlight the need for planning management strategies such as evaluation and upgrading of conventional drainage systems with low impact measures (rainwater harvesting and green roofs); technical and financial assistance to urban dwellers in adopting the management measures or a combination of them based on the location, requirements, and availability of information and resources to reduce the effects of pluvial flood in Kathmandu.}, }
@article {pmid33411304, year = {2021}, author = {Ali, S and Haixing, Z and Qi, M and Liang, S and Ning, J and Jia, Q and Hou, F}, title = {Monitoring drought events and vegetation dynamics in relation to climate change over mainland China from 1983 to 2016.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {17}, pages = {21910-21925}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-12146-4}, pmid = {33411304}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Environmental Monitoring ; Retrospective Studies ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Due to the present drought events and dynamics of vegetation, the circumstances in mainland China could become even more serious. Therefore, we study the impact of drought on vegetation trends in mainland China, with the aim of discovering the temporal and spatial differences in vegetation dynamics caused by seasonal drought. Our method is based on the use of data from the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1983 to 2016 and temperature and precipitation data from Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA's MERRA). Due to the sparse vegetation and low drought, NDVI is the most useful for describing drought conditions in mainland China. The NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, VCI, TVDI, and NAP from April to October increased rapidly, while the NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, NAP, TVDI, and VCI are stable every month in September, improve again in October, and then show in December a downward trend. The NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, NAP, TVDI, and VCI monthly values indicate that mainland China suffered from severe drought in 1984 and 1993, which lasted until 2007, which were the most drought years. For monitoring drought in mainland China, the NDVI, TVDI, NAP, VCI, and NVSWI values were selected as a tool for reporting drought events during different growing seasons. The seasonal values of TVDI, NDVI, NAP, NVSWI, and VCI confirmed that mainland China suffered from severe drought in 1984, 1993, and 2007 and led the durations of severe drought. Spatial correlation is generated between NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, NAP, TVDI, and VCI. The correlation between NDVI, TCI, VHI, NAP, and VCI showed a significantly positive correlation while significantly negative correlation between NVSWI and TVDI, TVDI and VHI, which showed a good indication for the assessment of drought, especially for the agricultural regions of mainland China. This shows that the positive sign to support NAP, NVSWI, and TVDI is a good monitoring of the drought indices. During the summer, it appears that compared to the southeastern part of mainland China, drought is more likely to occur in the northwestern areas. There is no doubt that these drought indices are comprehensive indicators of monitoring drought events in mainland China.}, }
@article {pmid33410486, year = {2021}, author = {Nigg, C and Nigg, CR}, title = {It's more than climate change and active transport-physical activity's role in sustainable behavior.}, journal = {Translational behavioral medicine}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {945-953}, doi = {10.1093/tbm/ibaa129}, pmid = {33410486}, issn = {1613-9860}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Exercise ; Humans ; Motivation ; *Sustainable Development ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Considering the interdependence of human's and nature's health within the planetary health concept, we evaluated how physical activity (PA) can be conceptualized as sustainable behavior (SuB) and how PA relates to other types of SuBs within the United Nations' sustainable development goal (SDG) framework. Regarding social SDGs, PA contributes to improving malnutrition (SDG 2), health behaviors (SDG 3), education (SDG 4), reducing inequalities (SDG 10), sustainable cities (SDG 12), and peace (SDG 16). For ecological SDGs, PA contributes to sustainable consumption (SDG 11) and combating climate change (SDG 13). Therefore, PA is more than a health behavior, it contributes to planetary health and sustainable development. However, caution is warranted as PA also has the potential to contribute and reinforce unsustainability. Thus, PA as a SuB requires an own research agenda, investigating (a) PA as social and ecological SuB, (b) sustainable PA promotion, (c) sustainable PA measurement, (d) common underlying constructs of PA and SuB, and (e) technology's role to assess and promote PA and SuB.}, }
@article {pmid33410153, year = {2020}, author = {Pareek, A and Joshi, R and Gupta, KJ and Singla-Pareek, SL and Foyer, C}, title = {Sensing and signalling in plant stress responses: ensuring sustainable food security in an era of climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {228}, number = {3}, pages = {823-827}, doi = {10.1111/nph.16893}, pmid = {33410153}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Biological Phenomena ; *Climate Change ; Food Security ; Food Supply ; Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid33410024, year = {2021}, author = {Warsame, AA and Sheik-Ali, IA and Ali, AO and Sarkodie, SA}, title = {Climate change and crop production nexus in Somalia: an empirical evidence from ARDL technique.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {16}, pages = {19838-19850}, pmid = {33410024}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production ; Economic Development ; Somalia ; }, abstract = {The purpose of this research examination is to ascertain the effect of climate change, measured rainfall, temperature, and CO2, on crop production by using data spanning from 1985 to 2016 in Somalia. ARDL bounds testing approach and Granger causality were employed to model the long-run and short-run cointegrations and the causality directions respectively of the scrutinized variables. The empirical results of the study found a long cointegration between the variables. It revealed that rainfall improves crop production in the long-run but hampers in the short-run, whereas temperature has adverse effect on crop production both in the long and short runs. But carbon dioxide emissions do not have any significant effect on crop production. Among other determinants, agriculture labour and land under cereal cultivation have a negative and positive impact on crop productivity in the long-run, respectively. In contrast, unidirectional causality is observed from agriculture and land under cereal cultivation to temperature, while another unidirectional causality is established from carbon dioxide emission to land under cereal cultivation. Hence, the policymakers should formulate coherent adaptation measures and mitigation policies to tackle the already felt effect of the changing climate on the agriculture sector to rebuild resilient and sustainable agriculture production in Somalia.}, }
@article {pmid33410023, year = {2021}, author = {Balsara, S and Jain, PK and Ramesh, A}, title = {An integrated methodology to overcome barriers to climate change mitigation strategies: a case of the cement industry in India.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {16}, pages = {20451-20475}, pmid = {33410023}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Construction Materials ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Humans ; India ; Industry ; }, abstract = {Cement is a basic requirement of today's society and is the only thing that humans consume more volume than water, but cement manufacturing is the most energy- and emission-intensive process. Hence, the cement industry is currently under pressure to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Climate change mitigation strategies implemented in the industry leads to GHGs reduction, climate risks, pollutants, and another adverse impact on the environment. In order to implement climate change mitigation strategies in the cement industry, a careful analysis of barriers that hinder the emission reduction must be taken. However, most existing research on the barriers to mitigation measures is focused on developed countries. Among the most important emerging economies, India, the second-largest producer and consumer of cement, faces challenges to implement emission reduction measures. To bridge this gap, this paper identifies and evaluates the barriers and solutions to overcome these barriers in the context of India. This study employs a three-phase methodology based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to identify barriers and solutions to overcome these barriers to climate change mitigation strategies adoption in Indian cement industry. Fuzzy AHP is employed to prioritize these barriers, and to rank solutions of these barriers, Fuzzy TOPSIS is employed. Ten Indian cement manufacturing industry is taken to illustrate the proposed three-phase methodology. Finally, the result of the analysis offers an effective decision support tool to the Indian cement industry to eliminate and overcome barriers to mitigation strategies adoption and build their green image in the market.}, }
@article {pmid33410008, year = {2021}, author = {Paterson, RRM}, title = {Longitudinal trends of future climate change and oil palm growth: empirical evidence for tropical Africa.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {17}, pages = {21193-21203}, pmid = {33410008}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Arecaceae ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Nigeria ; Palm Oil ; Tropical Climate ; Uganda ; }, abstract = {Palms are highly significant tropical plants. Oil palms produce palm oil, the basic commodity of a highly important industry. Climate change from greenhouse gasses is likely to decrease the ability of palms to survive, irrespective of them providing ecosystem services to communities. Little information about species survival in tropical regions under climate change is available and data on species migration under climate change is important. Palms are particularly significant in Africa: a palm oil industry already exists with Nigeria being the largest producer. Previous work using CLIMEX modelling indicated that Africa will have reduced suitable climate for oil palm in Africa. The current paper employs this modelling to assess how suitable climate for growing oil palm changed in Africa from current time to 2100. An increasing trend in suitable climate from west to east was observed indicating that refuges could be obtained along the African tropical belt. Most countries had reduced suitable climates but others had increased, with Uganda being particularly high. There may be a case for developing future oil palm plantations towards the east of Africa. The information may be usefully applied to other palms. However, it is crucial that any developments will fully adhere to environmental regulations. Future climate change will have severe consequences to oil palm cultivation but there may be scope for eastwards mitigation in Africa.}, }
@article {pmid33409646, year = {2021}, author = {Kwembeya, EG}, title = {Tracking biological footprints of climate change using flowering phenology of the geophytes: Pancratium tenuifolium and Scadoxus multiflorus.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {65}, number = {4}, pages = {577-586}, pmid = {33409646}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Flowers ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Drought-adapted geophytes are responding to the effects of climate change in arid and semi-arid environments. In this study, herbarium and historical rainfall data were used to examine the impact of rainfall changes on flowering trends of Pancratium tenuifolium Hochst. ex A.Rich and Scadoxus multiflorus (Martyn) Raf. subsp. multiflorus. Flowering was delayed by approximately 7 days per decade for P. tenuifolium during the period 1930 to 2018 and by approximately 14 days per decade for S. multiflorus subsp. multiflorus during the period 1924 to 2008. Scadoxus multiflorus subsp. multiflorus delayed the day of flowering by approximately 0.3 days per millimetre increase of rainfall, with Pancratium tenuifolium showing a non-significant response to summer rainfall during the same period. Overall, a linear mixed-effects model revealed that the day of flowering was delayed by approximately 8 days per degree rise in latitude and advanced by approximately 9 days per degree rise in longitude. Additionally, summer rainfall had significant effects on the day of flowering with a 1-mm increase in summer rainfall delaying the day of flowering by approximately 0.16 days. These changes in flowering times may ultimately alter the distribution of geophytes in Namibia.}, }
@article {pmid33406378, year = {2021}, author = {Ebi, KL and Vanos, J and Baldwin, JW and Bell, JE and Hondula, DM and Errett, NA and Hayes, K and Reid, CE and Saha, S and Spector, J and Berry, P}, title = {Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Population Health and Health System Implications.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {293-315}, pmid = {33406378}, issn = {1545-2093}, support = {P2C HD066613/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES007033/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care/*organization &amp; administration ; *Extreme Weather ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Population Health ; }, abstract = {Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, cyclones, and floods, are an expression of climate variability. These events and events influenced by climate change, such as wildfires, continue to cause significant human morbidity and mortality and adversely affect mental health and well-being. Although adverse health impacts from extreme events declined over the past few decades, climate change and more people moving into harm's way could alter this trend. Long-term changes to Earth's energy balance are increasing the frequency and intensity of many extreme events and the probability of compound events, with trends projected to accelerate under certain greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While most of these events cannot be completely avoided, many of the health risks could be prevented through building climate-resilient health systems with improved risk reduction, preparation, response, and recovery. Conducting vulnerability and adaptation assessments and developing health system adaptation plans can identify priority actions to effectively reduce risks, such as disaster risk management and more resilient infrastructure. The risks are urgent, so action is needed now.}, }
@article {pmid33405158, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, H and Ali, S and Ma, Q and Sun, L and Jiang, N and Jia, Q and Hou, F}, title = {Remote sensing strategies to characterization of drought, vegetation dynamics in relation to climate change from 1983 to 2016 in Tibet and Xinjiang Province, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {17}, pages = {21085-21100}, pmid = {33405158}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Seasons ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Due to various land cover changes, vegetation dynamics, and climate, drought is the most complex climate-related disaster problem in Tibet and Xinjiang, China. The purpose of the present study is to analyze the performance of the AVHRR Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the temporal and spatial differences of seasonal vegetation dynamics by correlating the results with rainfall and temperature data of NASA's MERRA to examine the vegetation dynamics and droughts in Tibet and the Xinjiang Province of China. Our method is based on the use of AVHRR NDVI data and NASA MERRA temperature and precipitation during 1983-2016. Due to the dryness and low vegetation, NDVI is more useful to describe the drought conditions in Tibet and Xinjiang of China. The NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, VCI, TVDI, and NAP from April to October increased rapidly. While the NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, NAP, TVDI, and VCI are stable every month in September, again improve in October, and then confirm downward trend in December. The NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, NAP, VCI, and TVDI monthly values indicate that Tibet and Xinjiang province of China suffered from severe drought in 2006, 2008, and 2012 which were the most drought years. For monitoring drought in Tibet and Xinjiang province of China, the NDVI, TVDI, NAP, VCI, and NVSWI values were selected as a tool for reporting drought events during different growing seasons. Seasonal values of TVDI, NDVI, NAP, NVSWI, and VCI confirmed that Tibet and Xinjiang province of China suffered from severe drought in 2006, 2008, and 2012 and led the durations of severe drought. The correlation between NDVI, TCI, VHI, NAP, TVDI, and VCI showed a significantly positive correlation, while the significantly negative correlation between NVSWI and NDVI showed a good indication for the assessment of drought, especially for the agricultural regions of Tibet and Xinjiang province of China. This shows that the positive sign to support NAP, NVSWI, and TVDI is good monitoring of the drought indexes in Tibet and the Xinjiang province of China.}, }
@article {pmid33404344, year = {2020}, author = {Ferguson, K}, title = {The Health Reframing of Climate Change and the Poverty of Narrow Bioethics.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {705-717}, doi = {10.1177/1073110520979381}, pmid = {33404344}, issn = {1748-720X}, mesh = {*Bioethics ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Health/*ethics ; *Ethical Analysis ; *Ethics, Research ; Humans ; }, abstract = {We must resist thoroughly reframing climate change as a health issue. For human health-centric ethical frameworks omit dimensions of value that we must duly consider. We need a new, an environmental, research ethic, one that we can use to more completely and impartially evaluate proposed research on mitigation and adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid33404343, year = {2020}, author = {Ganesh, C and Schmeltz, M and Smith, J}, title = {Introduction Climate Change and the Legal, Ethical, and Health Issues Facing Healthcare and Public Health Systems.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {636-642}, doi = {10.1177/1073110520979370}, pmid = {33404343}, issn = {1748-720X}, mesh = {COVID-19/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care/*standards ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Natural Disasters ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid33404333, year = {2020}, author = {Johnson, WG}, title = {Using Precision Public Health to Manage Climate Change: Opportunities, Challenges, and Health Justice.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {681-693}, doi = {10.1177/1073110520979374}, pmid = {33404333}, issn = {1748-720X}, mesh = {*Big Data ; *Climate Change ; Data Analysis ; Data Collection ; Data Science/methods ; Health Equity ; Healthcare Disparities ; Humans ; Precision Medicine/methods ; *Public Health ; Social Determinants of Health ; *Social Justice ; }, abstract = {Amid public health concerns over climate change, "precision public health" (PPH) is emerging in next generation approaches to practice. These novel methods promise to augment public health operations by using ever larger and more robust health datasets combined with new tools for collecting and analyzing data. Precision strategies to protecting the public health could more effectively or efficiently address the systemic threats of climate change, but may also propagate or exacerbate health disparities for the populations most vulnerable in a changing climate. How PPH interventions collect and aggregate data, decide what to measure, and analyze data pose potential issues around privacy, neglecting social determinants of health, and introducing algorithmic bias into climate responses. Adopting a health justice framework, guided by broader social and climate justice tenets, can reveal principles and policy actions which may guide more responsible implementation of PPH in climate responses.}, }
@article {pmid33404331, year = {2020}, author = {Krueger, J and Lawton, B}, title = {The Natural Environment as an Object of Public Health Law: Addressing Health Outcomes of Climate Change through Intersections with Environmental and Agricultural Law.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {664-680}, doi = {10.1177/1073110520979373}, pmid = {33404331}, issn = {1748-720X}, mesh = {Agriculture/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Air ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Parks, Recreational ; Primary Prevention ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Soil ; United States ; Water ; }, abstract = {The power to change the natural environment has received relatively little attention in public health law, yet is a core concern within environmental and agricultural law. Examples from environmental and agricultural law may inform efforts to change the natural environment in order to reduce the health impacts of climate change. Public health lawyers who attend to the natural environment may succeed in elevating health concerns within the environmental and agricultural law spheres, while gaining new tools for their public health law toolbox.}, }
@article {pmid33404328, year = {2020}, author = {Halabi, SF}, title = {Adaptation of Animal and Human Health Surveillance Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases Accompanying Climate Change.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {694-704}, doi = {10.1177/1073110520979375}, pmid = {33404328}, issn = {1748-720X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Disease Vectors ; Government Agencies/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Government Regulation ; Humans ; Population Surveillance/methods ; Public Health Surveillance/*methods ; United States/epidemiology ; Vector Borne Diseases/*epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is causing temperature rise in temperate zones resulting in climate conditions more similar to subtropical zones. As a result, rising temperatures increase the range of disease-carrying insects to new areas outside of subtropical zones, and increased precipitation causes flooding that is more hospitable for vector breeding. State governments, the federal government, and governmental agencies, like the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of USDA and the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, lack a coordinated plan for vector-borne disease accompanying climate change. APHIS focuses its surveillance primarily on the effect of illness on agricultural production, while NNDSS focuses on the emergence of pathogens affecting human health. This article provides an analysis of the current framework of surveillance of, and response to, vector-borne infectious diseases, the impacts of climate change on the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases, and recommends changes to federal law to address these threats.}, }
@article {pmid33404108, year = {2021}, author = {Golshan, T and Lande, S and Nickfardjam, K and Cohensedgh, S and Roitblat, Y and Nehuliaieva, L and Khabie, D and Stillman, R and Volynsky-Lauson, A and Mametov, K and Shterenshis, M}, title = {Thermal Comfort in School Classes in the Era of Global Warming: A Prospective Multicenter Study.}, journal = {The Journal of school health}, volume = {91}, number = {2}, pages = {146-154}, doi = {10.1111/josh.12986}, pmid = {33404108}, issn = {1746-1561}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Prospective Studies ; *Schools ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: We investigated adolescents' feelings of thermal comfort during the educational process in various geographical locations far apart and present recommendations for the adjustment of the thermal environment in schools.<br><br>METHODS: The prospective international multicenter study took place in 8 locations on different continents. The survey in the form of a questionnaire was carried out among 2800 healthy high school students. The study was divided into "cold season survey," "warm-season survey," and heat wave survey.<br><br>RESULTS: The statistically significant difference between the "cold season survey" score of 4.04 (discomfort) and "warm-season survey" score of 3.47 (slight discomfort) (p&#xa0;=&#xa0;.04) indicates that students feel more thermal discomfort during winter months in all 8 locations. The heat wave survey score was 4.53 (discomfort). During the cold season, 29.24% of high school students felt themselves in full thermal comfort and 76.48% of the students felt themselves relatively comfortable (slightly cool-comfortable-slightly warm).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Even during the ongoing process of climate change, the cold season discomfort remains the main problem for students in classes. This tendency is present in different continents as a universal problem. We recommend keeping an entrance hall and classroom temperatures at different levels and to advise students about proper clothing.}, }
@article {pmid33403640, year = {2021}, author = {Gorji, S and Gorji, A}, title = {COVID-19 pandemic: the possible influence of the long-term ignorance about climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {13}, pages = {15575-15579}, pmid = {33403640}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {In addressing the current COVID-19 pandemic and evaluating the measures taken by global leaders so far, it is crucial to trace back the circumstances influencing the emergence of the crisis that the world is presently facing. Could it be that the failure to act in a timely manner dates way back to when first concerns about climate change and its inevitable threat to human health came up? Multiple lines of evidence suggest that the large-scale and rapid environmental changes in the last few decades may be implicated in the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic by increasing the potential risk of the occurrence and the spread of zoonotic diseases, worsening food security, and weakening the human immune system. As we are facing progressive climatic change, a failure to act accordingly could inevitably lead to further, more frequent confrontations with newly emerging diseases.}, }
@article {pmid33401774, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, H and Jacquemyn, H and He, X and Chen, W and Huang, Y and Yu, S and Lu, Y and Zhang, Y}, title = {The Impact of Human Pressure and Climate Change on the Habitat Availability and Protection of Cypripedium (Orchidaceae) in Northeast China.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33401774}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Human pressure on the environment and climate change are two important factors contributing to species decline and overall loss of biodiversity. Orchids may be particularly vulnerable to human-induced losses of habitat and the pervasive impact of global climate change. In this study, we simulated the extent of the suitable habitat of three species of the terrestrial orchid genus Cypripedium in northeast China and assessed the impact of human pressure and climate change on the future distribution of these species. Cypripedium represents a genus of long-lived terrestrial orchids that contains several species with great ornamental value. Severe habitat destruction and overcollection have led to major population declines in recent decades. Our results showed that at present the most suitable habitats of the three species can be found in Da Xing'an Ling, Xiao Xing'an Ling and in the Changbai Mountains. Human activity was predicted to have the largest impact on species distributions in the Changbai Mountains. In addition, climate change was predicted to lead to a shift in distribution towards higher elevations and to an increased fragmentation of suitable habitats of the three investigated Cypripedium species in the study area. These results will be valuable for decision makers to identify areas that are likely to maintain viable Cypripedium populations in the future and to develop conservation strategies to protect the remaining populations of these enigmatic orchid species.}, }
@article {pmid33401063, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, S and Xing, J and Westervelt, DM and Liu, S and Ding, D and Fiore, AM and Kinney, PL and Zhang, Y and He, MZ and Zhang, H and Sahu, SK and Zhang, F and Zhao, B and Wang, S}, title = {Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {765}, number = {}, pages = {144338}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144338}, pmid = {33401063}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 μg m[-3] in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 μg m[-3] with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions are key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33397814, year = {2021}, author = {Evensen, D and Whitmarsh, L and Bartie, P and Devine-Wright, P and Dickie, J and Varley, A and Ryder, S and Mayer, A}, title = {Effect of "finite pool of worry" and COVID-19 on UK climate change perceptions.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {118}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2018936118}, pmid = {33397814}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {COVID-19/*epidemiology/*psychology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; *Pandemics ; *Perception ; *SARS-CoV-2 ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Research reveals that a "finite pool of worry" constrains concern about and action on climate change. Nevertheless, a longitudinal panel survey of 1,858 UK residents, surveyed in April 2019 and June 2020, reveals little evidence for diminishing climate change concern during the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, the sample identifies climate change as a bigger threat than COVID-19. The findings suggest climate change has become an intransigent concern within UK public consciousness.}, }
@article {pmid33396640, year = {2020}, author = {Salinas-Ramos, VB and Agnelli, P and Bosso, L and Ancillotto, L and Sánchez-Cordero, V and Russo, D}, title = {Body Size Variation in Italian Lesser Horseshoe Bats Rhinolophus hipposideros over 147 Years: Exploring the Effects of Climate Change, Urbanization and Geography.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33396640}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Body size in animals commonly shows geographic and temporal variations that may depend upon several environmental drivers, including climatic conditions, productivity, geography and species interactions. The topic of body size trends across time has gained momentum in recent years since this has been proposed as a third universal response to climate change along with changes in distribution and phenology. However, disentangling the genuine effects of climate change from those of other environmental factors is often far from trivial. In this study, we tested a set of hypotheses concerning body size variation across time and space in Italian populations of a rhinolophid bat, the lesser horseshoe bat Rhinolophus hipposideros. We examined forearm length (FAL) and cranial linear traits in a unique historical collection of this species covering years from 1869 to 2016, representing, to the best of our knowledge, the longest time series ever considered in a morphological assessment of a bat species. No temporal changes occurred, rejecting the hypotheses that body size varied in response to climate change or urbanization (light pollution). We found that FAL increased with latitude following a Bergmann's rule trend, whereas the width of upper incisors, likely a diet-related trait, showed an opposite pattern which awaits explanation. We also confirmed that FAL is sexually dimorphic in this species and ruled out that insularity has any detectable effect on the linear traits we considered. This suggests that positive responses of body size to latitude do not mean per se that concurring temporal responses to climate change are also expected. Further investigations should explore the occurrence of these patterns over larger spatial scales and more species in order to detect the existence of general patterns across time and space.}, }
@article {pmid33396405, year = {2020}, author = {Antolín, MC and Toledo, M and Pascual, I and Irigoyen, JJ and Goicoechea, N}, title = {The Exploitation of Local Vitis vinifera L. Biodiversity as a Valuable Tool to Cope with Climate Change Maintaining Berry Quality.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33396405}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2018-14//Universidad de Navarra/ ; }, abstract = {(1) Background: The associated increase in global mean surface temperature together with raised atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is exerting a profound influence on grapevine development (phenology) and grape quality. The exploitation of the local genetic diversity based on the recovery of ancient varieties has been proposed as an interesting option to cope with climate change and maintaining grape quality. Therefore, this research aimed to characterize the potential fruit quality of genotypes from seven local old grapevine varieties grown under climate change conditions. (2) Methods: The study was carried out on fruit-bearing cuttings (one cluster per plant) that were grown in pots in temperature gradient greenhouses (TGG). Two treatments were applied from fruit set to maturity: (1) ambient CO2 (400 ppm) and temperature (T) (ACAT) and (2) elevated CO2 (700 ppm) and temperature (T + 4 °C) (ECET). (3) Results: Results showed that some of the old genotypes tested remained quite stable during the climate change conditions in terms of fruit quality (mainly, total soluble solids and phenolic content) and of must antioxidant properties. (4) Conclusion: This research underlines the usefulness of exploiting local grapevine diversity to cope with climate change successfully, although further studies under field conditions and with whole plants are needed before extrapolating the results to the vineyard.}, }
@article {pmid33394750, year = {2021}, author = {Joshi, M and Caceres, J and Ko, S and Epps, SM and Bartter, T}, title = {Unprecedented: the toxic synergism of Covid-19 and climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in pulmonary medicine}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {66-72}, pmid = {33394750}, issn = {1531-6971}, mesh = {COVID-19/*complications ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review and compare the constellations of causes and consequences of the two current pandemics, Covid-19 and climate change.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: There has been a transient counterbalancing, in which the response to Covid-19 has briefly mitigated pollution and greenhouse gasses. This divergence belies multiple commonalities of cause and effect.<br><br>SUMMARY: The convergence of these two pandemics is unprecedented. Although at first glance, they appear to be completely unrelated, they share striking commonalities. Both are caused by human behaviors, and some of those behaviors contribute to both pandemics at the same time. Both illustrate the fact that isolation is not an option; these are global issues that inescapably affect all persons and all nations. Both incur prodigious current and anticipated costs. Both have similar societal impacts, and disproportionately harm those with lesser resources, widening the gap between the 'haves and the have-nots.' One can only hope that the devastation caused by these unprecedented pandemics will lead to increased awareness of how human beings have helped to create them and how our responses can and will shape our future.}, }
@article {pmid33393999, year = {2021}, author = {Kinney, PL}, title = {How Can We Solve Our Air Quality Problem in the Face of Climate Change?.}, journal = {JAMA network open}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {e2035010}, doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.35010}, pmid = {33393999}, issn = {2574-3805}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33392137, year = {2020}, author = {Frühauf, A and Niedermeier, M and Kopp, M}, title = {Intention to Engage in Winter Sport in Climate Change Affected Environments.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {598297}, pmid = {33392137}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {Attitude ; Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Humans ; *Intention ; *Sports ; }, abstract = {Exercise, including winter sport activities, shows positive effects on physical and mental health, with additional benefits when participating in natural environments. Winter sport activities are particularly vulnerable to climate change, since global warming will decrease the duration and amount of snow. In the context of climate change in alpine environments, little is known on the determinants of winter sport behavior. Thus, the following study primarily aimed at comparing the effect of being exposed to a climate change affected scenario (CCA) or to a climate change unaffected scenario (CCU) on the intention to engage in recreational winter sport activities. Secondly, we aimed to analyze the role of anticipated affective responses during exercising based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). An experimental cross-sectional web-based study design was used. Participants were randomly allocated to pictures of either CCA or CCU. TPB variables and affective responses with regard to the displayed scenarios were assessed. Statistical analyses included Mann-Whitney-U Tests, linear regression, and mediation analyses. Significant group differences were seen in all TPB variables, p < 0.038; -0.13 < r < -0.30, as well as in affective responses, p < 0.001; -0.24 < r < -0.85. Lower intention to engage in winter sport activities and lower anticipated affective valence during exercising was found in CCA compared to CCU. Attitude toward winter sport was significantly positively associated with intention to engage in winter sport, beta = 0.66, p < 0.001. The effect of group allocation on attitude was mediated by anticipated affective valence, indirect effect = 0.37, p < 0.001. Intention to engage in recreational winter sport activities was lower in participants exposed to the climate change affected winter sport scenario. Since affective valence seems to influence attitude and consequently intention to exercise, the role of non-cognitive variables with regard to climate change related exposure should be considered in future studies. Therefore, winter sport resorts may consider altered winter sport behaviors due to the consequences of climate change as well as the importance of providing an optimal framework to enhance affective valence of their guests in order to mitigate potential changes in winter sports behavior.}, }
@article {pmid33391707, year = {2020}, author = {Vtipil, EE and Sheth, SN}, title = {A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of phenology in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {24}, pages = {14165-14177}, pmid = {33391707}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: As global climate change alters drought regimes, rapid evolution of traits that facilitate adaptation to drought can rescue populations in decline. The evolution of phenological advancement can allow plant populations to escape drought, but evolutionary responses in phenology can vary across a species' range due to differences in drought intensity and standing genetic variation.<br><br>METHODS: Mimulus cardinalis, a perennial herb spanning a broad climatic gradient, recently experienced a period of record drought. Here, we used a resurrection study comparing flowering time and stem height at first flower of pre-drought ancestors and post-drought descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations in a common environment to examine the evolution of drought escape across the latitudinal range.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Contrary to the hypothesis of the evolution of advanced phenology in response to recent drought, flowering time did not advance between ancestors and descendants in any population, though storage condition and maternal effects could have impacted these results. Stem height was positively correlated with flowering time, such that plants that flowered earlier were shorter at first flower. This correlation could constrain the evolution of earlier flowering time if selection favors flowering early at a large size.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that rapid evolution of phenology will not rescue these populations from recent climate change. Future work is needed to examine the potential for the evolution of alternative drought strategies and phenotypic plasticity to buffer M.&#xa0;cardinalis populations from changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid33391310, year = {2020}, author = {Carvalho, L and Gonçalves, E and Amâncio, S and Martins, A}, title = {Selecting Aragonez Genotypes Able to Outplay Climate Change-Driven Abiotic Stress.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {599230}, pmid = {33391310}, issn = {1664-462X}, support = {Z01 CT000024/ImNIH/Intramural NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {High temperatures and extreme drought are increasingly more frequent in Portugal, which represents a strong threat to viticulture in certain regions of the country. These multifactorial abiotic stresses are threatening viticultural areas worldwide, and the problem can hardly be overcome only by changing cultural practices. This scenario has raised a major challenge for plant scientists to find ways to adapt existing varieties to the new conditions without loss of their characteristic flavors, yield, and associated varietal character of wines. Aragonez (syn. Tempranillo) is one such variety, widely cultivated in Portugal and Spain, with specific characteristics associated with terroir. In this context, insight into intravarietal variability to enable its exploitation for selection becomes an important tool to mitigate the effect of multifactorial stresses driven by climate changes. The present work describes an innovative selection approach: selection for abiotic stress tolerance, measured by the leaf temperature of clones under environmental conditions of drought and extreme heat. This evaluation was complemented with values of yield and quality characteristics of the must (pH, acidity, °Brix, and anthocyanins). The application of this methodology was done in an experimental population of 255 clones of Tempranillo for 3 years. The genotypes were then ranked according to their level of tolerance to abiotic stress without loss of yield/quality. To understand the differences at the transcription level that could account for such variability, several of the most tolerant and most sensitive genotypes were analyzed for key genes using reverse transcriptase-quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The results enabled the selection of a group of genotypes with increased tolerance to stress, in relation to the average of the variety, which maintained the typical must quality of Aragonez. In parallel, several transcripts previously acknowledged as markers for abiotic stress tolerance were identified in several clones and are possible targets for plant breeding and genetic modification and/or to develop screening procedures to select genotypes better adapted to the abiotic stress driven by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33391083, year = {2020}, author = {Löfström, E and Klöckner, CA and Nesvold, IH}, title = {Nature in Your Face - Disruptive Climate Change Communication and Eco-Visualization as Part of a Garden-Based Learning Approach Involving Primary School Children and Teachers in Co-creating the Future.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {568068}, pmid = {33391083}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {The paper describes an innovative structured workshop methodology in garden-based-learning (GBL) called "Nature in Your Face" (NiYF) aimed at provoking a change in citizens behavior and engagement as a consequence of the emotional activation in response to disruptive artistic messages. The methodology challenges the assumption that the change needed to meet the carbon targets can be reached with incremental, non-invasive behavior engineering techniques such as nudging or gamification. Instead, it explores the potential of disruptive communication to push citizens out of their comfort zones and into creative modes of re-creating futures. This is done by confronting us with consequences of consumption by means of art and eco-visualizations. The aim being to achieve awareness, mental flexibility, and spurring debate. Thus, we invite them to react - and act upon these reactions by communicating their feelings or thoughts. This is used as an entrance point for broader and/or deeper engagement in a structured three-step methodology; (1) Framing: A disruptive element is introduced into the local environment. This triggers an emotional reaction, which then is taken up in a process of framing the problem and working with solutions. (2) Twisting: in a guided process, the initial energy from the emotional confrontation is twisted into a creative exploration of innovative solutions, from the perspective of the children. (3) Using: The last stage is using the developed solutions in the local social system (or refining them further). The methodology is being applied in cooperation with a primary school, and is iteratively adjusted and evaluated in a formative, action-research based approach scenario. NiYF is to stimulate societal engagement through deliberately confronting stakeholders with unexpected and potentially upsetting appearances of nature, climate effects, or carbon-neutral lifestyle scenarios. We have verified the practical usefulness and potential of the methodology and found that NiYF triggers societal engagement and transition, negotiating responsibilities and unlocking action potentials. We also found that eco-anxiety, denial, self-efficacy and cognitive dissonance form children's understanding of plastic. The project marks a paradigm shift from creating knowledge to using knowledge to create action, and a focus on learning from evaluating and adapting the approach in the field.}, }
@article {pmid33390178, year = {2021}, author = {Harper, SL and Cunsolo, A and Babujee, A and Coggins, S and Aguilar, MD and Wright, CJ}, title = {Climate change and health in North America: literature review protocol.}, journal = {Systematic reviews}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3}, pmid = {33390178}, issn = {2046-4053}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Humans ; North America ; Organizations ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a defining issue and grand challenge for the health sector in North America. Synthesizing evidence on climate change impacts, climate-health adaptation, and climate-health mitigation is crucial for health practitioners and decision-makers to effectively understand, prepare for, and respond to climate change impacts on human health. This protocol paper outlines our process to systematically conduct a literature review to investigate the climate-health evidence base in North America.<br><br>METHODS: A search string will be used to search CINAHL&#xae;, Web of Science&#x2122;, Scopus&#xae;, Embase&#xae; via Ovid, and MEDLINE&#xae; via Ovid aggregator databases. Articles will be screened using inclusion/exclusion criteria by two independent reviewers. First, the inclusion/exclusion criteria will be applied to article titles and abstracts, and then to the full articles. Included articles will be analyzed using quantitative and qualitative methods.<br><br>DISCUSSION: This protocol describes review methods that will be used to systematically and transparently create a database of articles published in academic journals that examine climate-health in North America.}, }
@article {pmid33389625, year = {2021}, author = {Clayton, S}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {1-6}, pmid = {33389625}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Anxiety ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Mental Health ; *Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic ; Weather ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This essay reviews evidence for the current and potential effects of climate change on mental health.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: A growing body of research demonstrates not only that the extreme weather events associated with a changing climate can impair mental health, in particular leading to increases in depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, but also that more gradual changes in climatic conditions, such as rising temperatures and reduced air quality, are also harmful to mental health. In addition, there is increasing evidence that a significant proportion of people might be experiencing a harmful level of anxiety associated with their perception of climate change. Mental health impacts of climate change have the potential to affect a significant proportion of the population. More research is needed to document the extent of these impacts as well as the best options for mitigating and treating them.}, }
@article {pmid33388675, year = {2021}, author = {Islam Bhuiyan, MS and Rahman, A and Kim, GW and Das, S and Kim, PJ}, title = {Eco-friendly yield-scaled global warming potential assists to determine the right rate of nitrogen in rice system: A systematic literature review.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {271}, number = {}, pages = {116386}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2020.116386}, pmid = {33388675}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Global Warming ; Methane ; Nitrogen ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Oryza ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Rice paddies are one of the largest greenhouse gases (GHGs) facilitators that are predominantly regulated by nitrogen (N) fertilization. Optimization of N uses based on the yield has been tried a long since, however, the improvement of the state-of-the-art technologies and the stiffness of global warming need to readjust N rate. Albeit, few individual studies started to, herein attempted as a systematic review to generalize the optimal N rate that minimizes global warming potential (GWP) concurrently provides sufficient yield in the rice system. To satisfy mounted food demand with inadequate land &amp; less environmental impact, GHGs emissions are increasingly evaluated as yield-scaled basis. This systematic review (20 published studies consisting of 21 study sites and 190 observations) aimed to test the hypothesis that the lowest yield-scaled GWP would provide the minimum GWP of CH4 and N2O emissions from rice system at near optimal yields. Results revealed that there was a strong polynomial quadratic relationship between CH4 emissions and N rate and strong positive correlation between N2O emissions and N rate. Compared to control the low N dose emitted less (23%) CH4 whereas high N dose emitted higher (63%) CH4 emission. The highest N2O emission observed at moderated N level. In total GWP, about 96% and 4%, GHG was emitted as CH4 and N2O, respectively. The mean GWP of CH4 and N2O emissions from rice was 5758 kg CO2 eq ha[-1]. The least yield-scaled GWP (0.7565 (kg CO2 eq. ha[-1])) was recorded at 190 kg N ha[-1] that provided the near utmost yield. This dose could be a suitable dose in midseason drainage managed rice systems especially in tropical and subtropical climatic conditions. This yield-scaled GWP supports the concept of win-win for food security and environmental aspects through balancing between viable rice productivity and maintaining convincing greenhouse gases.}, }
@article {pmid33385922, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, Y and Wu, T and Arkema, KK and Han, B and Lu, F and Ruckelshaus, M and Ouyang, Z}, title = {Coastal vulnerability to climate change in China's Bohai Economic Rim.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {147}, number = {}, pages = {106359}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2020.106359}, pmid = {33385922}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change and human activities exert a wide range of stressors on urban coastal areas. Synthetical assessment of coastal vulnerability is crucial for effective interventions and long-term planning. However, there have been few studies based on integrative analyses of ecological and physical characteristics and socioeconomic conditions in urban coastal areas. This study developed a holistic framework for assessing coastal vulnerability from three dimensions - biophysical exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity - and applied it to the coast of Bohai Economic Rim, an extensive and important development zone in China. A composite vulnerability index (CVI) was developed for every 1 km[2] segment of the total 5627 km coastline and the areas that most prone to coastal hazards were identified by mapping the distribution patterns of the CVIs in the present and under future climate change scenarios. The CVIs show a spatial heterogeneity, with higher values concentrated along the southwestern and northeastern coasts and lower values concentrated along the southern coasts. Currently, 20% of the coastlines with approximately 350,000 people are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards. With sea-level rises under the future scenarios of the year 2100, more coastlines will be highly vulnerable, and the amount of highly-threatened population was estimated to increase by 13-24%. Among the coastal cities, Dongying was categorized as having the highest vulnerability, mainly due to poor transportation and medical services and low GDP per capita, which contribute to low adaptive capacity. Our results can benefit decision-makers by highlighting prioritized areas and identifying the most important determinants of priority, facilitating location-specific interventions for climate-change adaptation and sustainable coastal management.}, }
@article {pmid33385642, year = {2021}, author = {Hsiao, SC and Chiang, WS and Jang, JH and Wu, HL and Lu, WS and Chen, WB and Wu, YT}, title = {Flood risk influenced by the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall under climate change for low-lying coastal areas.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {764}, number = {}, pages = {144439}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144439}, pmid = {33385642}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Under climate change, compound flooding has resulted in severe disasters in coastal areas around the world. In this study, an integrated framework is proposed to determine the range of compound flood risk without the requirement of joint probability analysis between storm surge and rainfall. In the framework, the flood risks are analyzed under four extreme scenarios with/without the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall in the past and the future. From the end of the 20th century to the middle of the 21st century, the worst scenario shows that the flood area significantly increases by 92% for the low-lying coastal areas in southwest Taiwan under the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall if they are fully correlated. In the most optimistic scenario, the flood area slightly increases by 15% without compound effect (only storm surge is considered). To coastal flooding, the synchronization of storm surge and rainfall contributes much more than the climate-induced amplification of individual factors. When storm surge and rainfall happen at the same time, the extent and duration of flooding increase simultaneously under the influence of pluvial and surge-induced flooding. Risk analysis shows an obvious increase of risk level for villages originally at low risks, which require integrated countermeasures against the consequence brought by compound flooding in the future. The framework can be applied in other low-lying coastal areas to quantify the potential impacts on human and environment caused by compound flooding under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33380263, year = {2021}, author = {Coen, S and Meredith, J and Woods, R and Fernandez, A}, title = {Talk like an expert: The construction of expertise in news comments concerning climate change.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {400-416}, pmid = {33380263}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, abstract = {This article explores how readers of UK newspapers construct expertise around climate change. It draws on 300 online readers' comments on news items in The Guardian, Daily Mail and The Telegraph, concerning the release of the International Panel on Climate Change report calling for immediate action on climate change. Comments were analysed using discursive psychology. We identified a series of discursive strategies that commenters adopted to present themselves as experts in their commentary. The (mostly indirect) use of category entitlements (implicitly claiming themselves as expert) and the presentation of one's argument as factual (based on direct or indirect technical knowledge or common sense) emerged as common ways in which readers made claims to expertise, both among the supporters and among the sceptics of climate change science. Our findings indicate that expertise is a fluid concept, constructed in diverse ways, with important implications for public engagement with climate change science.}, }
@article {pmid33376738, year = {2020}, author = {Odonkor, ST and Sallar, AM}, title = {An Assessment of Public Knowledge and Potential Health Impacts of Global Warming in Ghana.}, journal = {BioMed research international}, volume = {2020}, number = {}, pages = {7804692}, pmid = {33376738}, issn = {2314-6141}, mesh = {Adult ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Fossil Fuels ; Ghana ; *Global Warming ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Literacy ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Global warming is a serious threat to human existence. The relatively higher level of global warming in recent times poses higher health risks to humans, both directly and indirectly. The aim of the study was to investigate public knowledge of global warming and its effects on human health. A nationally representative survey of Ghanaian adults (N = 1130) was conducted from November 1, 2018 to February 28, 2019. Results show that 84.4% of the respondents understood the meaning of global warming. Respondents' perceived causes of global warming include natural processes, deforestation, act of the gods, burning of fossil fuel, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from vehicles and industries. The majority of the respondents (83.4%) indicated that global warming has an impact on human health, while 8.5% indicated that it does not. Majority (78.6%) of the respondents are willing to support efforts to reduce the intensity of global warming. Television (19.1%) and social media (18.6%) were the leading preferred methods for receipt of global warming information. These findings provide useful insights for policy directions. The Government of Ghana and other stakeholders in health should develop a communication strategy to increase and sustain publicity and education of the citizenry on global warming.}, }
@article {pmid33376227, year = {2020}, author = {}, title = {Correction for Vandvik et al., Biotic rescaling reveals importance of species interactions for variation in biodiversity responses to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {52}, pages = {33720}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2023559117}, pmid = {33376227}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid33375332, year = {2020}, author = {Zinyemba, C and Archer, E and Rother, HA}, title = {Climate Change, Pesticides and Health: Considering the Risks and Opportunities of Adaptation for Zimbabwean Smallholder Cotton Growers.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33375332}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Gossypium ; Humans ; *Occupational Exposure ; Occupational Health ; *Pesticides/toxicity ; Zimbabwe ; }, abstract = {There is potential for increased pesticide-related adverse health outcomes in the agricultural sector linked to adaptive increases in pesticide use necessitated, in part, by climate change-related increases in pest populations. To understand the role of adaptation practices in pesticide use and health risks, this study assessed Zimbabwean smallholder cotton farmers' adaptive responses linked to their climate change perceptions. In depth interviews were conducted with 50 farmers who had been growing cotton for at least 30 years. The study identified farmers' adaptation practices that increased their pesticide use, as well as those that presented opportunities for reducing pesticide use through non-pesticide-dependent adaptation pathways. The findings show that due to perceived climate change impacts, such as a shorter growing season, farmers were adopting a range of adaptive practices. These included changes in pest management practices, such as increasing pesticide spraying frequencies due to keeping ratoon crops, which were increasing farmers' overall pesticide use. Such incremental adaptive practices are potentially maladaptive, as they may increase farmers' pesticide-related health risks. Other practices, however, such as reducing cotton acreage and diversifying crops, resulting in transformational adaptation, suggest the existence of opportunities for decreasing overall pesticide use or totally eliminating pesticides from the farming system.}, }
@article {pmid33374644, year = {2020}, author = {Li, Y and Wang, W and Wang, Y and Xin, Y and He, T and Zhao, G}, title = {A Review of Studies Involving the Effects of Climate Change on the Energy Consumption for Building Heating and Cooling.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33374644}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Air Conditioning ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Energy-Generating Resources ; *Heating ; }, abstract = {The world is faced with significant climate change, rapid urbanization, massive energy consumption, and tremendous pressure to reduce greenhouse gases. Building heating and cooling is one primary source of energy consumption and anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. First, this review presents previous studies that estimate the specific amount of climate change impact on building heating and cooling energy consumption, using the statistical method, physical model method, comprehensive assessment model method, and the combination method of statistical and physical model methods. Then, because the heating and cooling degree days indices can simply and reliably indicate the effects of climate on building heating and cooling energy consumption, previous studies were reviewed from the aspects of heating and cooling degree days indices, regional spatial-temporal variations in degree days and related indices, influencing factors of the spatial distributions of degree days, and the impacts of urbanization on degree days. Finally, several potential key issues or research directions were presented according to the research gaps or fields that need to be studied further in the future, such as developing methods to simply and accurately estimate the specified amounts of climate change impact on building cooling and heating energy consumption; using more effective methods to analyze the daytime, nighttime, and all-day spatial-temporal changes in different seasons in the past and future under various environment contexts by considering not only the air temperature but also the relative humidity, solar radiation, population, etc., and further exploring the corresponding more kinds of driving forces, including the various remotely sensed indices, albedo, nighttime light intensity, etc.; estimating the daytime, nighttime, and all-day impacts of urbanization on heating degree days (HDDs), cooling degree days (CDDs), and their sum (HDDs + CDDs) for vast cities in different environmental contexts at the station site, city, regional and global scales; producing and sharing of the related datasets; and analyzing the subsequent effects induced by climate change on the energy consumption for building heating and cooling, etc.}, }
@article {pmid33374455, year = {2020}, author = {Trigo, C and Castelló, ML and Ortolá, MD and García-Mares, FJ and Desamparados Soriano, M}, title = {Moringa oleifera: An Unknown Crop in Developed Countries with Great Potential for Industry and Adapted to Climate Change.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33374455}, issn = {2304-8158}, support = {AGCOOP_A/2018/026 AVFGA//Generalitat Valenciana/ ; }, abstract = {Moringa oleifera is originally a tropical crop with a fast development, little known in developed countries but cultivated since ancient times. It can adapt to regions affected by climate change, such as the Mediterranean basin, since it is a crop with a great resistance to high temperatures. In this study an in-depth bibliographical review was carried out by consulting different databases (Science Direct, FSTA, Scielo, Riunet, and Google Scholar) in order to find published scientific studies on the characteristics of this crop and its agronomic requirements. According to the information found, all parts of the Moringa oleifera, namely the leaves, pods, seeds, roots and flowers, can be used in different industrial sectors such as pharmaceutical, cosmetic, human food, animal feed, and water treatment since they have a nutritional profile rich in high biological value proteins, vitamins A and C, antioxidants, omega-3 fatty acids and minerals: calcium, iron, potassium, and phosphorous.}, }
@article {pmid33373749, year = {2021}, author = {Parker, L and Pathak, T and Ostoja, S}, title = {Climate change reduces frost exposure for high-value California orchard crops.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {762}, number = {}, pages = {143971}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143971}, pmid = {33373749}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Frost exposure is a particular challenge for cultivating perennial crops, whose adaptive capacity to weather and climate impacts is limited. Irrigation is a common means of mitigating damage, but draws on limited water resources, is costly, and energy intensive. Here we examined the projected impact of climate change on the incidence of frost temperatures during the coldest winters, defined by the 98th percentile of cool season (November-April) frost hours, under both early- and mid-21st century time periods, as compared to contemporary conditions, across a range of threshold temperatures. We focused on three high-value perennial orchard crops - almonds, avocados, and oranges - to assess the effects of climate change on the incidence of temperatures below crop-specific threshold temperatures and for crop-specific critical development phases, and what these temporal changes in frost exposure may mean for the water and energy requirements for mitigating damages. Across time periods and temperature thresholds, frost exposure declines in California's agricultural regions, with an average of reduction in frost exposure of 63% by the mid-21st century. The majority of almond and orange acreage saw 50-75% reductions in frost exposure by mid-century, while avocado acreage experienced >75% fewer frost hours. This yielded attendant reductions in water use and energy costs, and growers in the highest acreage counties may save more than 50,000 acre feet of water and $4.2 million in electricity costs for water pumping per year, collectively. Although climate change is projected to increase growing season crop water demands, pest pressures, and have an overall net-negative impact on agriculture, the potential reduction in frost exposure and the accompanying water and energy costs to mitigate frost damages may allow growers to reprioritize some of their long-term decisions around farm management.}, }
@article {pmid33372821, year = {2020}, author = {Nicole, W}, title = {Toward Better Estimates of the Cost of Climate Change Mitigation: Guidelines for Studying Potential Health Benefits.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {128}, number = {12}, pages = {124003}, pmid = {33372821}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Climate Change ; Research ; }, }
@article {pmid33370882, year = {2020}, author = {Omer, A and Elagib, NA and Zhuguo, M and Saleem, F and Mohammed, A}, title = {Water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin under future climate change and human activities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {749}, number = {}, pages = {141446}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141446}, pmid = {33370882}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Under global climate change and pressure from human activities, water scarcity is becoming a major concern in the quest for regional sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). This study integrates scenarios of climate change and human activities under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a watershed-scale hydrological model, and uses the Water Use-to-Availability Ratio (WUAR) to study future water scarcity over six sub-catchments in the YRB. It further investigates the relationship between the future water scarcity and hydroclimatic and anthropogenic drivers. The results suggest that the average WUAR under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 will likely exceed the water scarcity threshold (WUAR >20%) and will reach up to 39.9 and 44.7%, respectively. The average WUAR for the upstream and downstream sub-catchments will likely range from 23.8 to 51.6% under RCP4.5 and from 25.5% to 73.8% under RCP8.5, indicating moderate to severe and moderate to extreme water scarcity, respectively. Future WUAR correlates negatively (r-value = -0.85) with the streamflow drought index (SDI) in the upstream sub-catchments, i.e., hydrological drought will likely intensify water scarcity. Conversely, WUAR and SDI would be positively correlated (r-value = +0.70) in the downstream sub-catchments, i.e., water scarcity will become severer despite decreasing severity of hydrological drought. Under climate change, water scarcity in these sub-catchments will exhibit high dependency (Kendall τ correlation coefficient = 0.84) on water-use patterns than on water availability. The regression analysis indicates that the WUAR will increase significantly (p < 0.05) with projected woodland, cropland, and buildup areas under RCP4.5. This relationship will become even more significant (p < 0.01) under RCP8.5. This study provides insights into the potential drivers of future water scarcity in the YRB, which is likely to confront water supply crises. The study should help policymaking towards attaining sustainable water management in the basin.}, }
@article {pmid33363250, year = {2021}, author = {Yuen, KY and Fraser, NS and Henning, J and Halpin, K and Gibson, JS and Betzien, L and Stewart, AJ}, title = {Hendra virus: Epidemiology dynamics in relation to climate change, diagnostic tests and control measures.}, journal = {One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {100207}, pmid = {33363250}, issn = {2352-7714}, abstract = {Hendra virus (HeV) continues to pose a serious public health concern as spillover events occur sporadically. Terminally ill horses can exhibit a range of clinical signs including frothy nasal discharge, ataxia or forebrain signs. Early signs, if detected, can include depression, inappetence, colic or mild respiratory signs. All unvaccinated ill horses in areas where flying foxes exist, may potentially be infected with HeV, posing a significant risk to the veterinary community. Equivac® HeV vaccine has been fully registered in Australia since 2015 (and under an Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority special permit since 2012) for immunization of horses against HeV and is the most effective and direct solution to prevent disease transmission to horses and protect humans. No HeV vaccinated horse has tested positive for HeV infection. There is no registered vaccine to prevent, or therapeutics to treat, HeV infection in humans. Previous equine HeV outbreaks tended to cluster in winter overlapping with the foaling season (August to December), when veterinarians and horse owners have frequent close contact with horses and their bodily fluids, increasing the chance of zoonotic disease transmission. The most southerly case was detected in 2019 in the Upper Hunter region in New South Wales, which is Australia's Thoroughbred horse breeding capital. Future spillover events are predicted to move further south and inland in Queensland and New South Wales, aligning with the moving distribution of the main reservoir hosts. Here we (1) review HeV epidemiology and climate change predicted infection dynamics, (2) present a biosecurity protocol for veterinary clinics and hospitals to adopt, and (3) describe diagnostic tests currently available and those under development. Major knowledge and research gaps have been identified, including evaluation of vaccine efficacy in foals to assess current vaccination protocol recommendations.}, }
@article {pmid33362824, year = {2020}, author = {Tomás, D and Coelho, LP and Rodrigues, JC and Viegas, W and Silva, M}, title = {Assessment of Four Portuguese Wheat Landrace Diversity to Cope With Global Warming.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {594977}, pmid = {33362824}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Wheat is a dietary staple consumed worldwide strongly responsible for proteins and carbohydrate population intake. However, wheat production and quality will scarcely fulfill forward demands, which are compounded by high-temperature (HT) events as heatwaves, increasingly common in Portugal. Thus, landraces assume crucial importance as potential reservoirs of useful traits for wheat breeding and may be pre-adapted to extreme environmental conditions. This work evaluates four Portuguese landrace yield and grain composition through attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy, particularly protein content, and their responses to HT treatment mimicking a heatwave. Landraces showed distinct yield traits, especially plant height and first spike grain number, and a similar pattern in FTIR spectra, although revealing differences in grain components' proportions. Comparison between spectra band intensity indicates that Ardito has the highest protein-related peaks, contrary to Magueija, which appears to be the landrace with higher lipid content. In plants submitted to 1 week of HT treatment 10 days after anthesis, the first spike grain size and weight were markedly reduced in all landraces. Additionally, it was observed that a general increase in grain protein content in the four landraces, being the increment observed in Ardito and Grécia, is statistically significant. The comparative assessment of control and HT average FTIR spectra denoted also the occurrence of alterations in grain polysaccharide composition. An integrated assessment of the evaluations performed revealed that Ardito and Magueija landraces presented diverse yield-related characteristics and distinct responses to cope with HT. In fact, the former landrace revealed considerable grain yield diminution along with an increase in grain protein proportion after HT, while the latter showed a significant increase in spikes and grain number, with grain quality detriment. These results reinforce the relevance of scrutinizing old genotype diversity seeking for useful characteristics, particularly considering HT impact on grain production and quality.}, }
@article {pmid33362365, year = {2020}, author = {Calliari, E and Serdeczny, O and Vanhala, L}, title = {Making sense of the politics in the climate change loss &amp; damage debate.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {64}, number = {}, pages = {102133}, pmid = {33362365}, issn = {0959-3780}, abstract = {The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (L&amp;D) associated with Climate Change Impacts (WIM) was established in 2013 to advance i) knowledge generation; ii) coordination and iii) support to address losses and damages under the UNFCCC. So far, the work undertaken by the WIM Executive Committee (ExCom) has focused on enhancing understanding and awareness of the issue and promoting collaboration with relevant stakeholders. Delivering on the WIM's third function on action and support has lagged behind, and 'the political' nature of L&amp;D has often been blamed for this. Key terrains of contention among Parties have included the positioning of L&amp;D governance vis-à-vis the adaptation space and struggles around state liability and compensation. As a way to facilitate discussion on implementation options, recent research has suggested de-politicising aspects of the L&amp;D debate; yet we have very little insight into how the politics are understood within the realm of international L&amp;D governance. This paper brings an analysis of 'the political' into the picture by identifying the complex and underlying issues that fuel contention within UNFCCC L&amp;D negotiations. It gives centre stage to the way different framings of norms and material interests affect the debate, and challenges the tendency in current L&amp;D literature to overlook the socio-historical and political underpinnings of this area of policy-making. We employ a qualitative multi-methods research design which draws on content analysis of 138 official Parties' submissions and statements, 14 elite interviews with key current and former L&amp;D negotiators and is built on a foundation of 3 years of participant observation at COPs and WIM meetings. We approach this data with a political ethnographic sensibility that seeks to explore how meanings are constructed within and across different sources of data. Our empirical results show that, rather than being a monolithic dispute, L&amp;D catalyses different yet intertwined unresolved discussions. We identify five areas of contention, including continued disputes around compensation; conflicts on the legitimacy of L&amp;D as a third pillar of climate action; tensions between the technical and political dimension of the debate; debates over accountability for losses and damages incurred; and the connection of L&amp;D with other unresolved issues under the Convention.}, }
@article {pmid33362279, year = {2020}, author = {Lu, Y and Xu, P and Li, Q and Wang, Y and Wu, C}, title = {Planning priority conservation areas for biodiversity under climate change in topographically complex areas: A case study in Sichuan province, China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {e0243425}, pmid = {33362279}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; *Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Identifying priority conservation areas plays a significant role in conserving biodiversity under climate change, but uncertainties create challenges for conservation planning. To reduce uncertainties in the conservation planning framework, we developed an adaptation index to assess the effect of topographic complexity on species adaptation to climate change, which was incorporated into the conservation framework as conservation costs. Meanwhile, the species distributions were predicted by the Maxent model, and the priority conservation areas were optimized during different periods in Sichuan province by the Marxan model. Our results showed that the effect of topographic complexity was critical for species adaptation, but the adaptation index decreased with the temperature increase. Based on the conservation targets and costs, the distributions of priority conservation areas were mainly concentrated in mountainous areas around the Sichuan Basin where may be robust to the adaptation to climate change. In the future, the distributions of priority conservation areas had no evident changes, accounting for about 26% and 28% of the study areas. Moreover, most species habitats could be conserved in terms of conservation targets in these priority conservation areas. Therefore, our approach could achieve biodiversity conservation goals and be highly practical. More importantly, quantifying the effect of topography also is critical for options for planning conservation areas in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33362217, year = {2020}, author = {Belovsky, GE and Slade, JB}, title = {Climate change and primary production: Forty years in a bunchgrass prairie.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {e0243496}, pmid = {33362217}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Grassland ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Over the past 109 years, a Montana intermountain bunchgrass prairie annually became warmer (0.7°C) and drier (27%). The temperature and precipitation trends continued since 1978, as we studied nitrogen availability, annual aboveground primary production (ANPP), plant phenology and species composition. Given the annual increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, ANPP might be expected to decline; however, it increased by 110%, as the period of greatest production (late-May-June) became wetter and cooler, counter to the annual pattern, and this was strongest at lower elevations. Grass production increased by 251%, while dicot production declined by 65%, which increased grass relative abundance by 54%. Summer temperatures increased 12.5% which increased plant senescence by 119% and decreased fall plant regrowth by 68%. More intense summer senescence changed plant species composition in favor of more drought tolerant species. The greater ANPP and summer senescence may increase susceptibility for fire, but fire tolerance of the plant species composition did not change. Invasive plant species increased 108% over the study with annual grasses accounting for >50% of this increase, which further increased summer plant senescence. Therefore, seasonal climate changes at a smaller geographical scale (local), rather than average annual climate changes over a larger geographical scale (regional), may better reflect plant community responses, and this makes ecological forecasting of climate change more difficult.}, }
@article {pmid33360640, year = {2021}, author = {Liberman, R and Fine, M and Benayahu, Y}, title = {Simulated climate change scenarios impact the reproduction and early life stages of a soft coral.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {163}, number = {}, pages = {105215}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105215}, pmid = {33360640}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Indian Ocean ; Reproduction ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Coral reefs are threatened worldwide by global climate change, manifested in anthropogenic ocean warming and acidification. Despite the importance of coral sexual reproduction for the continuity of coral reefs, our understanding of the extent of the impact of climate change on coral sexual reproduction, particularly on coral reproductive phenology and early life stages, is limited. Here, we experimentally examined the effects of predicted end-of-the-century seawater conditions on the sexual reproduction and photosynthetic capacity of a Red-Sea zooxanthellate octocoral, Rhytisma fulvum. Sexually mature colonies were exposed to ambient temperature and pH conditions and to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) conditions (4.5 and 8.5), five weeks prior to their expected surface-brooding event. The reproductive phenology of the colonies under the simulated seawater conditions was compared to that on the natural reef. In addition, subsequent planulae development and their metamorphosis into primary polyps under the same RCP conditions as their parent colonies were monitored in a running seawater system. The results reveal that both RCP conditions led to a change in the timing of onset of the surface-brooding event and its synchronicity. In contrast, the surface-brooding event under ambient conditions co-occurred with that of the in-situ reef colonies and maintained its synchrony. Similarly, planula survival and polyp metamorphosis rate were significantly reduced under both RCP conditions compared to propagules reared under ambient conditions. In addition, the photosynthetic capacity of the parent colonies under both RCPs showed a reduction relative to that under the ambient conditions in the experiment, suggesting a reduction in carbon fixation during the late stages of gametogenesis. While our findings indicate that octocoral reproductive phenology is affected by environmental changes, further work is required in order to elucidate the long-term implications for the R. fulvum population in the northern Red Sea.}, }
@article {pmid33360312, year = {2021}, author = {Pergent-Martini, C and Pergent, G and Monnier, B and Boudouresque, CF and Mori, C and Valette-Sansevin, A}, title = {Contribution of Posidonia oceanica meadows in the context of climate change mitigation in the Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {165}, number = {}, pages = {105236}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105236}, pmid = {33360312}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {*Alismatales ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; France ; Mediterranean Sea ; }, abstract = {Coastal marine vegetation has been recently highlighted for its highly efficient carbon storage capacity. Among the sixty-four species of seagrass, Posidonia oceanica, a Mediterranean endemic species, appears to be the most effective in carbon fixation and storage. Based on new data from the study of one of the largest P. oceanica meadows in the Mediterranean Sea (100 km of coastline, 20 425 ha), and a synthesis of available data from the whole of the Mediterranean basin, the aim of this work is to evaluate the amount of carbon fixed each year by P. oceanica and sequestered in the matte, in relation with the mitigation of the impact of climate change (carbon sink). The mean total carbon fixation (blades, sheaths and rhizomes) per year varies between 33.5 and 426.6 g C.m[-2] and the mean carbon sequestration (long-term sink in the matte), corresponding to the sheath and rhizome tissues, varies between 7.7 and 84.4 g C.m[-2], with a clear decreasing trend according to depth because of the meadow density decrease. The synthesis of a hundred measurements made throughout the Mediterranean Sea and at depths between 0.5 and 32.0 m provides a basis for estimating the average annual carbon fixation and sequestration rate throughout the Mediterranean basin. The fixation of the blades is estimated at 1 024 t C.ha[-1].yr[-1], that of the sheaths at 220 t C ha[-1].yr[-1] and that of the rhizomes at 58 t C ha[-1].yr[-1]; i.e. a total fixation rate of 1 302 t C ha[-1].yr[-1] and sequestration rate (dead sheaths and rhizomes) of 278 t C ha[-1].yr[-1]. This annual carbon fixation represents only 0.61% on average of CO2 emissions/releases for all Mediterranean countries but in the large Mediterranean islands this fixation is on average 3.1% and can reach almost 14.4% for Corsica. Moreover, the major advantage of the P. oceanica meadow lies in its capacity to store carbon from annual carbon sequestration for centuries to millennia and can be compared to several terrestrial ecosystems considered to be efficient in carbon storage (peatlands).}, }
@article {pmid33360235, year = {2021}, author = {Hernández Ruiz, L and Ekumah, B and Asiedu, DA and Albani, G and Acheampong, E and Jónasdóttir, SH and Koski, M and Nielsen, TG}, title = {Climate change and oil pollution: A dangerous cocktail for tropical zooplankton.}, journal = {Aquatic toxicology (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {231}, number = {}, pages = {105718}, doi = {10.1016/j.aquatox.2020.105718}, pmid = {33360235}, issn = {1879-1514}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Copepoda/drug effects/physiology ; Feces ; Female ; Humans ; Petroleum Pollution/*analysis ; Pyrenes/toxicity ; Reproduction/drug effects ; Survival Analysis ; *Tropical Climate ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity ; Zooplankton/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change and oil pollution pose a major threat to tropical marine ecosystems and to the coastal communities relying on their resources. The Gulf of Guinea is severely affected by multiple human induced stressors, but the potential impacts of these on marine productivity remain unknown. We investigated the combined effects of heatwaves (climate stressor) and the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon pyrene (proxy for oil) on the copepod Centropages velificatus. We quantified survival, reproduction and fecal pellet production of females exposed to concentrations of 0, 10, 100 and 100+ nM (saturated) pyrene under simulated heatwaves of different thermal intensity (+3 °C and +5 °C above control treatment temperature). Thermal stress due to both moderate and intensive heatwaves resulted in reduced survival and egg production. The negative effects of pyrene were only measurable at the high pyrene concentrations. However, thermal stress increased the sensitivity of C. velificatus to pyrene, indicating a synergistic interaction between the two stressors. We document that the interaction of multiple stressors can result in cumulative impacts that are stronger than expected based on single stressor studies. Further research is urgently needed to evaluate the combined impact of climatic and anthropogenic stressors on the productivity of coastal ecosystems, particularly in the tropical areas.}, }
@article {pmid33357845, year = {2021}, author = {Schenker, U and Chardot, J and Missoum, K and Vishtal, A and Bras, J}, title = {Short communication on the role of cellulosic fiber-based packaging in reduction of climate change impacts.}, journal = {Carbohydrate polymers}, volume = {254}, number = {}, pages = {117248}, doi = {10.1016/j.carbpol.2020.117248}, pmid = {33357845}, issn = {1879-1344}, mesh = {Cellulose/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; *Food Packaging/methods/trends ; Food Technology ; Plastics ; Recycling ; }, abstract = {This short communication describes the climate change impacts of using cellulose, and more precisely cellulosic fiber-based materials, in food packaging, representing current and emerging industrial state of the art technology, without specific reference to current scientific advances. First, the different types of cellulosic fiber-based packaging materials, which can be used to replace fossil-based packaging materials, are presented for flexible and rigid applications. The focus is on technological solutions with packaging properties that enable the protection of commonly sold food products. The manufacturing processes associated with these cellulosic fiber-based materials is described and the environmental impact assessment of 4 selected case studies presented: stand-up pouches, flexible flow wraps, frozen or chilled food trays, and molded pulp lids. A simplified eco-design Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was then performed to compare each solution with its fossil-based counterpart. Differences and similarities between the various cellulosic solutions have been identified. Furthermore, the assessment confirms that cellulosic fiber-based materials have reduced environmental impacts as compared to fossil-based counterparts, if a similar packaging weight is obtained. Indeed, all impacts of plastics are between 3 and 5 kg CO2eq/kg, while all impacts of cellulosic fiber-based materials are below 1.5 kg CO2eq/kg.}, }
@article {pmid33357509, year = {2021}, author = {Talley, NJ and Stanley, F and Lucas, T and Horton, R}, title = {Health and climate change MJA-Lancet Countdown report: Australia gets another failing grade in 2020 but shows signs of progress.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {397}, number = {10287}, pages = {e12-e14}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32632-5}, pmid = {33357509}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33357123, year = {2021}, author = {Khan, MMH and Havukainen, J and Horttanainen, M}, title = {Impact of utilizing solid recovered fuel on the global warming potential of cement production and waste management system: A life cycle assessment approach.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {561-572}, pmid = {33357123}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Animals ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Incineration ; Life Cycle Stages ; *Refuse Disposal ; Solid Waste ; *Waste Management ; }, abstract = {Cement production is responsible for a significant share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A potential option to reduce the cement production emissions is to use alternative fuels which can have also an impact on emissions from the waste management sector. This work investigates the change in global warming potential (GWP) of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) production and affected waste management systems when conventional fuels are partially replaced by solid recovered fuel (SRF) made from commercial and industrial waste (C&amp;IW). A life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted with a functional unit of 1 metric tonne of OPC production and treatment of 194 kg of C&amp;IW. Data from an existing cement plant have been used, where the share of SRF from total fuel energy demand increased from 0% to 53% between 2007 and 2016. Four scenarios were established with varying waste treatment methods and SRF share in the thermal energy mix of cement production. It was found that GHG emissions decreased by 20% from 1036 kg carbon dioxide (CO2), eq. (functional unit)-1 in Scenario 1 to 832 kg CO2, eq. (functional unit)-1 in Scenario 3. Furthermore, it is possible to reach a reduction of 30% to 725 kg CO2, eq. (functional unit)-1 in Scenario by increasing the share of SRF to 80%. In conclusion, significant GHG emissions reduction can be achieved by utilizing SRF in cement production. Especially in the middle-income and low-income countries where waste is dumped to the open landfills, emissions could be reduced without huge investments to waste incineration plants.}, }
@article {pmid33355475, year = {2021}, author = {Lewandowsky, S}, title = {Climate Change Disinformation and How to Combat It.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {1-21}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-090419-102409}, pmid = {33355475}, issn = {1545-2093}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communication ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change presents a challenge at multiple levels: It challenges our cognitive abilities because the effect of the accumulation of emissions is difficult to understand. Climate change also challenges many people's worldview because any climate mitigation regime will have economic and political implications that are incompatible with libertarian ideals of unregulated free markets. These political implications have created an environment of rhetorical adversity in which disinformation abounds, thus compounding the challenges for climate communicators. The existing literature on how to communicate climate change and dispel misinformation converges on several conclusions: First, providing information about climate change, in particular explanations of why it occurs, can enhance people's acceptance of science. Second, highlighting the scientific consensus can be an effective means to counter misinformation and raise public acceptance. Third, culturally aligned messages and messengers are more likely to be successful. Finally, climate misinformation is best defanged, through a process known as inoculation, before it is encountered, although debunking techniques can also be successful.}, }
@article {pmid33353497, year = {2021}, author = {Kay, N and Gaymard, S}, title = {Climate change in the Cameroonian press: An analysis of its representations.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {417-433}, doi = {10.1177/0963662520976013}, pmid = {33353497}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Cameroon ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; *Politics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global environmental issue and its outcome will affect societies around the world. In recent years, we have seen a growing literature on media coverage of climate change, but, to date, no study has assessed the situation in Cameroon, although it is considered to be one of the world's most affected and vulnerable regions. This study attempted to address this deficit by analysing how climate change is represented in the Cameroonian media. A similarity analysis was performed on three newspapers published in 2013-2016. Results showed that climate coverage focused on politics and international involvement. It seems disconnected from local realities, potentially opening up a spatial and social psychological distance. The relationship between the representation of climate change and that of poverty is an area for further exploration.}, }
@article {pmid33352933, year = {2020}, author = {Barik, S}, title = {Evolution of Protein Structure and Stability in Global Warming.}, journal = {International journal of molecular sciences}, volume = {21}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {33352933}, issn = {1422-0067}, mesh = {Amino Acid Sequence ; Amino Acids/chemistry ; *Biological Evolution ; *Global Warming ; Mutation ; *Protein Conformation ; Protein Stability ; Proteins/*chemistry ; Structure-Activity Relationship ; }, abstract = {This review focuses on the molecular signatures of protein structures in relation to evolution and survival in global warming. It is based on the premise that the power of evolutionary selection may lead to thermotolerant organisms that will repopulate the planet and continue life in general, but perhaps with different kinds of flora and fauna. Our focus is on molecular mechanisms, whereby known examples of thermoresistance and their physicochemical characteristics were noted. A comparison of interactions of diverse residues in proteins from thermophilic and mesophilic organisms, as well as reverse genetic studies, revealed a set of imprecise molecular signatures that pointed to major roles of hydrophobicity, solvent accessibility, disulfide bonds, hydrogen bonds, ionic and π-electron interactions, and an overall condensed packing of the higher-order structure, especially in the hydrophobic regions. Regardless of mutations, specialized protein chaperones may play a cardinal role. In evolutionary terms, thermoresistance to global warming will likely occur in stepwise mutational changes, conforming to the molecular signatures, such that each "intermediate" fits a temporary niche through punctuated equilibrium, while maintaining protein functionality. Finally, the population response of different species to global warming may vary substantially, and, as such, some may evolve while others will undergo catastrophic mass extinction.}, }
@article {pmid33348488, year = {2021}, author = {Szalińska, E and Zemełka, G and Kryłów, M and Orlińska-Woźniak, P and Jakusik, E and Wilk, P}, title = {Climate change impacts on contaminant loads delivered with sediment yields from different land use types in a Carpathian basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {755}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {142898}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142898}, pmid = {33348488}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Soil runoff and sediment transport are considered as an important vector for particle-bound contaminant transfer from source to receiving waters. Under changing climate conditions and rapid basin development, identification of sediment origins is critical for planning further action to reduce erosion effects, and further pollution to surface waters. The goal of this study was to distinguish sediment sources in a Carpathian basin (Wolnica River, southern Poland) and to perform source-oriented contaminant load estimations. Sediment yields (SYLD) and land use specific sediment yields (LUSY) were modeled with the use of the Macromodel DNS/SWAT (Discharge-Nutrients-Sea/Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Sorting of sediment sources was performed by the fingerprinting method using variability of the geochemical composition of soils (Pb, Zn, Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni, Fe, Hg, total N and P, Σ16 PAHs, and 137Cs) of four land use (LU) types: arable lands (A), grasslands (G), residential areas (R), and forests (F). Statistical analysis revealed six metals (Pb, Zn, Cd, Cu, Ni, and Hg) as fingerprint properties providing the best source discrimination in this basin. The contribution of particular land use origin assessed with the use of the mixing model varied in the range of 20-30%. Finally, estimation of land use specific contaminant loads in suspended sediments was performed as a result of a modeling and sediment fingerprinting combination. The final estimates revealed yearly LUSY values varying between 716 t/y for A, 12 t/y for F, and metal loads from 31 kg/y for Zn to values below 100 g/y for Cd and Hg. Long-term predictions (2046-2055) of the metal loads revealed an increase by 75% under the combined RCP 8.5 climate change and land use scenarios. These findings are of great value for land management in the Carpathian basins, especially with regards to the predicted increase of forest cover which significantly alters contaminant signals conveyed through the system.}, }
@article {pmid33348270, year = {2021}, author = {Fischer, H and Said, N}, title = {Importance of domain-specific metacognition for explaining beliefs about politicized science: The case of climate change.}, journal = {Cognition}, volume = {208}, number = {}, pages = {104545}, doi = {10.1016/j.cognition.2020.104545}, pmid = {33348270}, issn = {1873-7838}, mesh = {Attitude ; Bayes Theorem ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Metacognition ; }, abstract = {One of the oldest debates in psychological research into politicized science such as nanotechnology, vaccination, or climate change centers around the role of knowledge. Does increased knowledge of the science affect beliefs about it? While research has traditionally focused on the role of object-level knowledge, here we highlight the importance of meta-knowledge: How much people believe they know about the science. Specifically, we demonstrate the importance of meta-knowledge (measured as confidence in knowledge) for explaining beliefs about science with one of the most contested examples: climate change. For a national Germany sample (N = 509), frequentist and Bayesian analyses demonstrated that climate change meta-knowledge was predictive of climate change beliefs, above and beyond object-level climate change knowledge. These results held for both the belief that climate change is risky, and the belief that climate change is anthropogenic, and when controlling for political attitude, and demographic variables. Furthermore, for a second national German sample (N = 588), confidence in climate change knowledge was a stronger predictor of climate change beliefs compared to confidence in other-domain (biological and physical) science knowledge, suggesting that outside of the respective domain, metacognitive confidence did not explain beliefs. These results highlight the relevance of domain-specific metacognition for explaining beliefs about the contested science of climate change. By demonstrating the relevance of metacognitive, rather than solely object-level thought, these results add to our understanding of the cognitive mechanisms involved in the formation of beliefs about politicized science.}, }
@article {pmid33348157, year = {2021}, author = {Li, X and Zhang, K and Gu, P and Feng, H and Yin, Y and Chen, W and Cheng, B}, title = {Changes in precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960-2019 and the association with global warming, ENSO, and local effects.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {760}, number = {}, pages = {144244}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144244}, pmid = {33348157}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Extreme precipitation events can pose great risks to natural ecosystems and human society. Investigating past changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of such events and understanding the possible driving factors are critical for reliable projections of future changes and for informing adaptation strategies planning. Here we analyze trends in a complete list of extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) during the period of 1960-2019. Also, we examine the possible influences of global warming, ENSO, and local effects on the spatiotemporal variability of the EPIs. Our results show that average and extreme precipitation intensities, and the frequency of extreme heavy precipitation in the YRB have significantly increased, while precipitation frequency and maximum duration of wet spells have significantly decreased. A regional difference in trend occurrence and magnitude is also observed, showing the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over the Middle and Lower reaches are more likely to increase and increase faster, compared with those of the Upper reach of the YRB. Furthermore, our correlation analysis shows global warming, ENSO, and local effects all are significant driving factors that control the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation extremes over the YRB. Global warming tends to enhance the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes. The La Niña phase of ENSO often corresponds to an increase of frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in the current year, but a decrease of frequency and intensity in the coming year. Local warming mainly exerts a reducing effect on precipitation extremes, which is likely a response to the significant decrease of relative humidity in the YRB. Our findings highlight the need for a systematic approach to examine global, regional, and local drivers of trends in precipitation extremes in the YRB, and contribute to the understanding of precipitation changes in this region.}, }
@article {pmid33347685, year = {2021}, author = {McGinty, N and Barton, AD and Record, NR and Finkel, ZV and Johns, DG and Stock, CA and Irwin, AJ}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change impacts on copepod trait biogeography.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {7}, pages = {1431-1442}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15499}, pmid = {33347685}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {549935//Simons Collaboration on Computational Biogeochemical Modeling of Marine Ecosystems/ ; //Simons Foundation/ ; NNX16AG59G/NASA/NASA/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Copepoda ; Ecosystem ; Greenland ; Temperature ; Zooplankton ; }, abstract = {Copepods are among the most abundant marine metazoans and form a key link between marine primary producers, higher trophic levels, and carbon sequestration pathways. Climate change is projected to change surface ocean temperature by up to 4°C in the North Atlantic with many associated changes including slowing of the overturning circulation, areas of regional freshening, and increased salinity and reductions in nutrients available in the euphotic zone over the next century. These changes will lead to a restructuring of phytoplankton and zooplankton communities with cascading effects throughout the food web. Here we employ observations of copepods, projected changes in ocean climate, and species distribution models to show how climate change may affect the distribution of copepod species in the North Atlantic. On average species move northeast at a rate of 14.1 km decade[-1] . Species turnover in copepod communities will range from 5% to 75% with the highest turnover rates concentrated in regions of pronounced temperature increase and decrease. The changes in species range vary according to copepod traits with the largest effects found to occur in the cooling, freshening area in the subpolar North Atlantic south of Greenland and in an area of significant warming along the Scotian shelf. Large diapausing copepods (>2.5 mm) which are higher in lipids and a crucial food source for whales, may have an advantage in the cooling waters due to their life-history strategy that facilitates their survival in the arctic environment. Carnivorous copepods show a basin wide increase in species richness and show significant habitat area increases when their distribution moves poleward while herbivores see significant habitat area losses. The trait-specific effects highlight the complex consequences of climate change for the marine food web.}, }
@article {pmid33347561, year = {2021}, author = {Marten, R and Yangchen, S and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Prats, EV and Neira, MP and Ghaffar, A}, title = {Climate change: an urgent priority for health policy and systems research.}, journal = {Health policy and planning}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {218-220}, pmid = {33347561}, issn = {1460-2237}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33346353, year = {2021}, author = {Vineis, P and Butler, A}, title = {Commentary: Climate change and health: the importance of experiments.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {50}, number = {3}, pages = {929-930}, doi = {10.1093/ije/dyaa261}, pmid = {33346353}, issn = {1464-3685}, support = {MR/S019669/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33341957, year = {2021}, author = {Talley, NJ and Stanley, FJ and Lucas, T and Horton, RC}, title = {Health and climate change MJA-Lancet Countdown report: Australia gets another failing grade in 2020 but shows signs of progress.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {214}, number = {2}, pages = {75-76}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.50895}, pmid = {33341957}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Public Health ; *Wildfires ; }, }
@article {pmid33341471, year = {2021}, author = {Wu, C and Chen, D and Shen, J and Sun, X and Zhang, S}, title = {Estimating the distribution and productivity characters of Larix kaempferi in response to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {280}, number = {}, pages = {111633}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111633}, pmid = {33341471}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Asia ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Larix ; North America ; }, abstract = {Understanding the distribution, net primary productivity (NPP) and environmental constraints of Larix kaempferi is crucial to predict how global climate change will affect its growth and future dynamics. We simulated future changes in the globally suitable distribution patterns and the NPP dynamics under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using MaxEnt and Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth (3-PG) models. The results showed that suitable distribution areas for Larix kaempferi were concentrated in Europe and Asia, followed by North America, under current climate conditions. Globally, about 33.75% of the suitable area was in China. Suitable areas decreased and shifted northward in Asia, Europe and China in the RCP scenarios. Larix kaempferi could adapt or move to higher latitudes/altitudes to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The NPP of Larix kaempferi in China was 241.85-863.57 g m[-2] a[-1] simulated by the 3-PG model after local parameterization, which was consistent with the measured NPP. Changes in NPP were predicted in future climates. When the correlations between climate factors and NPP were examined, under the more optimistic scenarios, NPP would increase significantly. The key parameters of the 3-PG model were the optimal temperature for growth, forest age, and the number of days of lost productivity in each frost period. Therefore, climate change has a quantitative and significant impact on the distribution and productivity of L. kaempferi, which was estimated successfully with the two modeling approaches. Our results will contribute to the improved cultivation, environment and management of L. kaempferi and potentially of other deciduous gymnosperms.}, }
@article {pmid33340906, year = {2021}, author = {Ademollo, N and Spataro, F and Rauseo, J and Pescatore, T and Fattorini, N and Valsecchi, S and Polesello, S and Patrolecco, L}, title = {Occurrence, distribution and pollution pattern of legacy and emerging organic pollutants in surface water of the Kongsfjorden (Svalbard, Norway): Environmental contamination, seasonal trend and climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {163}, number = {}, pages = {111900}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111900}, pmid = {33340906}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Chromatography, Liquid ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Environmental Pollutants ; Norway ; *Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/analysis ; Seasons ; Svalbard ; Tandem Mass Spectrometry ; Water ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {This work aimed to investigate the contamination pattern in Kongsfjorden marine environment (Svalbard, 79°N 12°E) and to disentangle primary and secondary emissions. Surface seawater, sampled in two seasons, was analysed by GC-MS and LC-MS/MS to detect polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), nonylphenols (NPs), bisphenol A (BPA) and perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs). In summer, average ΣPAHs, BPA, ΣNPs, ΣPFASs and ΣPCBs concentrations were 17.3 ± 11.1 ng/L, 0.9 ± 0.3 ng/L, 10.0 ± 6.9 ng/L, 0.4 ± 0.7 ng/L and 1.8 ± 1.3 pg/L, respectively; while in winter, they were 13.6 ± 10.1 ng/L, 0.5 ± 0.2 ng/L, 6.8 ± 3.3 ng/L, <LOD and 0.6 ± 0.4 pg/L, respectively. The application of generalized linear models (GLMs) highlighted that: PFAS pattern agrees their predominant long-range hydrospheric transport; the additive effect of the distance to glacier and harbour affected PAH, NP and BPA distributions; the additive effect of season and distance from the glacier, but not their interaction, influenced PCBs distribution, indicating melting glaciers as potential secondary POP sources.}, }
@article {pmid33340741, year = {2021}, author = {Rodriguez-Delgado, C and Bergillos, RJ}, title = {Wave energy assessment under climate change through artificial intelligence.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {760}, number = {}, pages = {144039}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144039}, pmid = {33340741}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The implementation of renewable energies is among the main challenges that we are confronting in the present situation of climate change. In this work, an artificial neural network (ANN) is optimized and used to assess the wave energy resource available to a wave farm over its service life. We select as case study a stretch of coastline in southern Spain. Different ANN architectures and training algorithms are tested for a dataset in deep water composed by: three values of significant wave height, four values of peak period, two values of incoming wave direction, three astronomical tide values, three storm surge values and three values of sea level rise induced by climate change. These deep-water sea states were propagated using a numerical model (Delft3D-Wave) and results were obtained at 176 locations. Thus, more than 114,000 data were used to train and test the ANNs. Once validated, the ANN was used to assess the cumulative wave energy at 704 locations during a 25-year period for three scenarios of rise in sea level according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports: present situation, pessimistic IPCC projection and optimistic IPCC projection. According to the results, the cumulative wave energy in the case study increases with increasing water depths. The greatest values of cumulative wave energy are reached at great depths off a shoreline horn and a port. Importantly, the rise in sea level will induce an increase in the wave energy resource. The ANN developed in this work allows the quantification of wave energy over long-term periods, reducing the computational cost, as well as the choice of the best locations for wave farms considering the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33337302, year = {2020}, author = {Morris, K}, title = {Making Practical Progress on Climate Change in Healthcare: Seizing Opportunities.}, journal = {HealthcarePapers}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {41-46}, doi = {10.12927/hcpap.2020.26374}, pmid = {33337302}, issn = {1929-6339}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Government ; Government Programs ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change concerns have gained traction with many Canadians and impacted their individual choices. However, as a country, we have repeatedly failed to meet international emission-reduction targets. Setting an ambitious goal of net zero in healthcare may continue the discouraging pattern of missing the mark. This commentary proposes a new approach - identifying practical solutions and measuring their beneficial impact for both health and the environment. A few options are suggested, some likely to benefit from near-term government investments. Making tangible progress where opportunities present themselves will create positive health and environmental benefits and a solid foundation for future achievements.}, }
@article {pmid33336788, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, Y and Zhang, L and Yin, X and Zou, X and Chen, F}, title = {Influence of climate change and mechanized harvesting on maize (Zea mays L.) planting and northern limits in northeast China.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {101}, number = {9}, pages = {3889-3897}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.11027}, pmid = {33336788}, issn = {1097-0010}, support = {2016YFD0300201//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture/instrumentation/*methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Seeds/chemistry/growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Zea mays/chemistry/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Northeast China is one of the most important maize producing areas in China. Due to limitations on crop growth resulting from temperature, whether this area can realize mechanical kernel harvesting maize (MKHM) will directly affect the stable development of maize in the region. The effects of climate change on the northern limits of early maturing MKHM were also analyzed in the study.<br><br>RESULTS: The mean temperature during the maize growth period increased at a rate of 0.22&#x2009;&#xb0;C/10a from 1960 to 2018. The average growth periods for early, middle- and late-maturing common harvest maize (CHM) were 123, 135, and 140&#x2009;days, respectively, and the accumulated temperature above 10&#xa0;&#xb0;C (AAT10) was 2400&#x2009;&#xb0;C, 2800&#x2009;&#xb0;C, and 3100&#x2009;&#xb0;C. The early maturing MKHM growth period was about 20&#x2009;days longer than that of early maturing CHM, and thus the AAT10 of the MKHM was 2700&#x2009;&#xb0;C. From 2000-2018, the northern limits for the early maturing CHM maize planting were located from south of Nenjiang and Wudalianchi (47&#xb0; 98' N-49&#xb0; 74' N), while the northern limits for the early maturing MKHM maize were located in south Keshan, Nehe, and Hailun (46&#xb0; 32' N-48&#xb0; 70' N), which was about 148&#x2009;km southward compared to the northern limits of the early maturing CHM maize.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study not only confirmed the northern limits of early maturing MKHM maize but also indicated that the development of MKHM offsets the influences of climate change on the northern limits of maize planting. This is very important for the sustainable development of maize in the region. &#xa9; 2020 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid33336401, year = {2021}, author = {Everingham, SE and Offord, CA and Sabot, MEB and Moles, AT}, title = {Time-traveling seeds reveal that plant regeneration and growth traits are responding to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {102}, number = {3}, pages = {e03272}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.3272}, pmid = {33336401}, issn = {1939-9170}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Germination ; Seedlings ; Seeds ; }, abstract = {Studies assessing the biological impacts of climate change typically rely on long-term, historic data to measure trait responses to climate through time. Here, we overcame the problem of absent historical data by using resurrected seeds to capture historic plant-trait data for a number of plant regeneration and growth traits. We collected seed and seedling trait measurements from resurrected historic seeds and compared these with modern seed and seedling traits collected from the same species in the same geographic location. We found a total of 43 species from southeastern Australia for which modern/historic seed pairs could be located. These species were located in a range of regions that have undergone different amounts of climate change across a range of temperature, precipitation, and extreme measures of climate. There was a correlation between the amount of change in climate metrics, and the amount of change in plant traits. Using stepwise model selection, we found that for all regeneration and growth trait changes (except change in stem density), the most accurate model selected at least two measures of climate change. Changes in extreme measures of climate, such as heat-wave duration and changes in climate variability, were more strongly related to changes in regeneration and growth traits than changes in mean climate metrics. Across our species, for every 5% increase in temperature variability, there was a threefold increase in the probability of seed viability and seed germination success. An increase of 1 d in the maximum duration of dry spells through time led to a 1.5-fold decrease in seed viability and seeds became 30% flatter/thinner. Regions where the maximum heat-wave duration had increased by 10 d saw a 1.35-cm decrease in seedling height and a 1.04-g decrease in seedling biomass. Rapid responses in plant traits to changes in climate may be possible; however, it is not clear whether these changes will be fast enough for plants to keep pace with future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33335062, year = {2020}, author = {Descombes, P and Pitteloud, C and Glauser, G and Defossez, E and Kergunteuil, A and Allard, PM and Rasmann, S and Pellissier, L}, title = {Novel trophic interactions under climate change promote alpine plant coexistence.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {370}, number = {6523}, pages = {1469-1473}, doi = {10.1126/science.abd7015}, pmid = {33335062}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Grassland ; *Herbivory ; Introduced Species ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Herbivory and plant defenses exhibit a coupled decline along elevation gradients. However, the current ecological equilibrium could be disrupted under climate change, with a faster upward range shift of animals than plants. Here, we experimentally simulated this upward herbivore range shift by translocating low-elevation herbivore insects to alpine grasslands. We report that the introduction of novel herbivores and increased herbivory disrupted the vertical functional organization of the plant canopy. By feeding preferentially on alpine plants with functional traits matching their low-elevation host plants, herbivores reduced the biomass of dominant alpine plant species and favored encroachment of herbivore-resistant small-stature plant species, inflating species richness. Supplementing a direct effect of temperature, novel biotic interactions represent a neglected but major driver of ecosystem modifications under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33331061, year = {2020}, author = {Bernard, AB and Marshall, AJ}, title = {Assessing the state of knowledge of contemporary climate change and primates.}, journal = {Evolutionary anthropology}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {317-331}, doi = {10.1002/evan.21874}, pmid = {33331061}, issn = {1520-6505}, support = {//University of Michigan/ ; //Rackham Graduate School/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Anthropology, Physical ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Primates/*physiology ; *Research Design ; }, abstract = {In recent years, interest in understanding the effects of climate change on species and ecological systems has sharply increased. We quantify and contextualize the current state of knowledge about the effects of contemporary climate change on non-human primates, a taxon of great ecological and anthropological significance. Specifically, we report findings from a systematic literature search designed to assess the allocation of research effort on primates and climate change and consider how the current distribution of knowledge may be influencing our understanding of the topic. We reveal significant phylogenetic and geographic gaps in our knowledge, which is strongly biased towards lemurs, apes, and a relatively small subset of primate range countries. We show that few analyses investigate changes in primate foods relative to changes in primates themselves or their habitats, and observe that few longitudinal datasets are of sufficient duration to detect effects on the generational scale. We end by identifying areas of research inquiry that would advance our theoretical understanding of primate ecology, evolution, and adaptability, and meaningfully contribute to primate conservation.}, }
@article {pmid33330979, year = {2021}, author = {Iira, T and Ruth, ML and Hannele, T and Jouni, J and Lauri, K}, title = {Finnish nurses' perceptions of the health impacts of climate change and their preparation to address those impacts.}, journal = {Nursing forum}, volume = {56}, number = {2}, pages = {365-371}, doi = {10.1111/nuf.12540}, pmid = {33330979}, issn = {1744-6198}, mesh = {Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Finland ; Humans ; *Nurses ; Perception ; Qualitative Research ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has a direct and indirect impact on human health that include health impacts from rising temperatures and poor air quality. This challenges the health sector in many ways. Nurses should be aware of these health effects and the patients who are particularly vulnerable to the health impacts caused by climate change.<br><br>PURPOSE: The objective of the study was to identify the health issues that Finnish registered nurses associate with climate change and to determine nurses' perception of their preparation to address the health impacts of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: A qualitative descriptive study was conducted through semi-structured focus group interviews.<br><br>RESULTS: Nurses reported observing changes in health of their patient populations. The nurses attributed some changes in their patients' health to climate change. Interviewed nurses felt that climate change was not adequately addressed in their basic nursing education and in staff development.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: It is important to include climate change and its impact on human health in the nurses' curriculum and in continuing education for practicing nurses.}, }
@article {pmid33329660, year = {2020}, author = {Han, W and Ahmed, S and Wei, C and Orians, CM and Landi, M}, title = {Editorial: Responses of Tea Plants to Climate Change: From Molecules to Ecosystems.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {594317}, pmid = {33329660}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid33329621, year = {2020}, author = {Frei, ER and Schnell, L and Vitasse, Y and Wohlgemuth, T and Moser, B}, title = {Assessing the Effectiveness of in-situ Active Warming Combined With Open Top Chambers to Study Plant Responses to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {539584}, pmid = {33329621}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Temperature manipulation experiments are an effective way for testing plant responses to future climate conditions, especially for predicting shifts in plant phenological events. While passive warming techniques are widely used to elevate temperature in low stature plant communities, active warming has been applied less frequently due to the associated resource requirements. In forest ecosystems, however, active warming is crucial to simulate projected air temperature rises of 3-5 K, especially at the warm (i.e., southern and low elevation) range edges of tree species. Moreover, the warming treatment should be applied to the complete height of the experimental plants, e.g., regenerating trees in the understory. Here, we combined open top chambers (OTCs) with active heat sources, an electric heater (OTC-EH) and warming cables (OTC-WC), and tested the effectiveness of these set-ups to maintain constant temperature differences compared to ambient temperature across 18 m[2] plots. This chamber size is needed to grow tree saplings in mixture in forest gaps for 3 to 10 years. With passive warming only, an average temperature increase of approx. 0.4 K as compared to ambient conditions was achieved depending on time of the day and weather conditions. In the actively warmed chambers, average warming exceeded ambient temperatures by 2.5 to 2.8 K and was less variable over time. However, active warming also reduced air humidity by about 15%. These results underline the need to complement passive warming with active warming in order to achieve constant temperature differences appropriate for climate change simulations under all weather conditions in large OTCs. Since we observed considerable horizontal and vertical temperature variation within OTCs with temperature differences of up to 16.9 K, it is essential to measure and report within-plot temperature distribution as well as temporal temperature variation. If temperature distributions within large OTCs are well characterized, they may be incorporated in the experimental design helping to identify non-linear or threshold responses to warming.}, }
@article {pmid33329207, year = {2020}, author = {Maiella, R and La Malva, P and Marchetti, D and Pomarico, E and Di Crosta, A and Palumbo, R and Cetara, L and Di Domenico, A and Verrocchio, MC}, title = {The Psychological Distance and Climate Change: A Systematic Review on the Mitigation and Adaptation Behaviors.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {568899}, pmid = {33329207}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Background and Objective: Currently, climate change represents an existential, physical, and psychological threat. Therefore, mitigation and adaptation actions and measures have become increasingly necessary to preserve individual and collective well-being. The psychological distance is one of the main psychological constructs that explains the most concrete or abstract perception of the objects and events surrounding people. The psychological distance is a multidimensional construct, and in accordance with the construal level theory (CLT), temporal, hypothetical, spatial, and social distance are considered the most critical dimensions. This systematic review aims to provide an update of the literature on the role of psychological distance in the commitment to engagement mitigation and adaptation attitudes toward climate change. Method: The review was carried out following PRISMA guidelines and a systematic search was performed on PubMed, Psycinfo, Web of Science, Cochrane, and Scopus databases. Results: Nineteen articles have been identified as being eligible for the final synthesis. Results showed, in general, that individuals have a higher propensity to perform pro-environmental and resilient behaviors against climate change when it is perceived as more proximal and concrete within the construct of psychological distance. However, not all studies show this result. Some studies showed that, despite people considering climate changes as real and tangible, they do not perform mitigation and adaptation behaviors. Other studies showed that people implement these behaviors despite perceiving climate changes as distal and abstract. Conclusions: The current literature shows the existence of a relation among psychological distance and pro-environmental and resilient behaviors applied to climate change. For a deeper understanding of the conflicting results that emerged, more studies are necessary to explore the possible presence of further psychological variables involved in the relation within psychological distance, mitigation, and adaptation in environmental contexts.}, }
@article {pmid33328541, year = {2020}, author = {Diodato, N and Ljungqvist, FC and Bellocchi, G}, title = {Fingerprint of climate change in precipitation aggressiveness across the central Mediterranean (Italian) area.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {22062}, pmid = {33328541}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Rainfall erosivity and its derivative, erosivity density (ED, i.e., the erosivity per unit of rain), is a main driver of considerable environmental damages and economic losses worldwide. This study is the first to investigate the interannual variability, and return periods, of both rainfall erosivity and ED over the Mediterranean for the period 1680-2019. By capturing the relationship between seasonal rainfall, its variability, and recorded hydrological extremes in documentary data consistent with a sample (1981-2015) of detailed Revised Universal Soil Loss Erosion-based data, we show a noticeable decreasing trend of rainfall erosivity since about 1838. However, the 30-year return period of ED values indicates a positive long-term trend, in tandem with the resurgence of very wet days (> 95th percentile) and the erosive activity of rains during the past two decades. A possible fingerprint of recent warming is the occurrence of prolonged wet spells in apparently more erratic and unexpected ways.}, }
@article {pmid33327757, year = {2021}, author = {Constible, J and Knowlton, K}, title = {How Can U.S. Employers Keep Workers Safe From the Health Harms of Climate Change?.}, journal = {American journal of health promotion : AJHP}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {143-146}, doi = {10.1177/0890117120970334b}, pmid = {33327757}, issn = {2168-6602}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Benefit Plans, Employee ; Humans ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid33327756, year = {2021}, author = {Johnson, SS}, title = {Climate Change &amp; Well-Being: The Role for Health Promotion Professionals.}, journal = {American journal of health promotion : AJHP}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {140-143}, doi = {10.1177/0890117120970334a}, pmid = {33327756}, issn = {2168-6602}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Personnel ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33327755, year = {2021}, author = {Johnson, SS and Constible, J and Knowlton, K and Gifford, B and Roberts, JD and Ada, MSD and Jette, SL}, title = {Knowing Well, Being Well: well-being born of understanding: Climate Change &amp; Well-Being: The Role for Health Promotion Professionals.}, journal = {American journal of health promotion : AJHP}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {140-152}, doi = {10.1177/0890117120970334}, pmid = {33327755}, issn = {2168-6602}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Personnel ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33327439, year = {2020}, author = {Nayna Schwerdtle, P and Stockemer, J and Bowen, KJ and Sauerborn, R and McMichael, C and Danquah, I}, title = {A Meta-Synthesis of Policy Recommendations Regarding Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {33327439}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care/standards/trends ; *Emigration and Immigration/trends ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Policy ; }, abstract = {Changing mobility patterns combined with changes in the climate present challenges and opportunities for global health, requiring effective, relevant, and humane policy responses. This study used data from a systematic literature review that examined the intersection between climate change, migration, and health. The study aimed to synthesize policy recommendations in the peer-reviewed literature, regarding this type of environmental migration with respect to health, to strengthen the evidence-base. Systematic searches were conducted in four academic databases (PubMed, Ovid Medline, Global Health and Scopus) and Google Scholar for empirical studies published between 1990-2020 that used any study design to investigate migration and health in the context of climate change. Studies underwent a two-stage protocol-based screening process and eligible studies were appraised for quality using a standardized mixed-methods tool. From the initial 2425 hits, 68 articles were appraised for quality and included in the synthesis. Among the policy recommendations, six themes were discernible: (1) avoid the universal promotion of migration as an adaptive response to climate risk; (2) preserve cultural and social ties of mobile populations; (3) enable the participation of migrants in decision-making in sites of relocation and resettlement; (4) strengthen health systems and reduce barriers for migrant access to health care; (5) support and promote optimization of social determinants of migrant health; (6) integrate health into loss and damage assessments related to climate change, and consider immobile and trapped populations. The results call for transformative policies that support the health and wellbeing of people engaging in or affected by mobility responses, including those whose migration decisions and experiences are influenced by climate change, and to establish and develop inclusive migrant healthcare.}, }
@article {pmid33326289, year = {2021}, author = {Schmeltz, MT}, title = {Climate Change Is Already Exacerbating Current Social Inequities.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {111}, number = {1}, pages = {10-11}, pmid = {33326289}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33324600, year = {2020}, author = {Chalabi, Z and Foss, AM}, title = {Catastrophic Health Impacts of Spiraling Climate Change: How Certain Can We Be About Their Magnitudes?.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {584721}, pmid = {33324600}, issn = {2296-2565}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Recently, there has been a strong interest in the climate emergency and the human health impacts of climate change. Although estimates have been quoted, the modeling methods used have either been simplistic or opaque, making it difficult for policy makers to have confidence in these estimates. Providing central estimates of health impacts, without any quantification of their uncertainty, is deficient because such an approach does not acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in extreme environmental exposures associated with spiraling climate change and related health impacts. Furthermore, presenting only the uncertainty bounds around central estimates, without information on how the uncertainty in each of the model parameters and assumptions contribute to the total uncertainty, is insufficient because this approach hides those parameters and assumptions which contribute most to the total uncertainty. We propose a framework for calculating the catastrophic human health impacts of spiraling climate change and the associated uncertainties. Our framework comprises three building blocks: (A) a climate model to simulate the environmental exposure extremes of spiraling climate change; (B) a health impact model which estimates the health burdens of the extremes of environmental exposures; and (C) an analytical mathematical method which characterizes the uncertainty in (A) and (B), propagates the uncertainty in-between and through these models, and attributes the proportion of uncertainty in the health outcomes to model assumptions and parameter values. Once applied, our framework can be of significant value to policy makers because it handles uncertainty transparently while taking into account the complex interactions between climate and human health.}, }
@article {pmid33322879, year = {2020}, author = {Skagen, KM and Aasheim, ET}, title = {[Health personnel must combat global warming].}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {140}, number = {18}, pages = {}, doi = {10.4045/tidsskr.20.0857}, pmid = {33322879}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Military Personnel ; }, }
@article {pmid33322341, year = {2020}, author = {Venios, X and Korkas, E and Nisiotou, A and Banilas, G}, title = {Grapevine Responses to Heat Stress and Global Warming.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {33322341}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {The potential effects of the forthcoming climate change include the rising of the average annual temperature and the accumulation of extreme weather events, like frequent and severe heatwaves, a phenomenon known as global warming. Temperature is an important environmental factor affecting almost all aspects of growth and development in plants. The grapevine (Vitis spp.) is quite sensitive to extreme temperatures. Over the current century, temperatures are projected to continue rising with negative impacts on viticulture. These consequences range from short-term effects on wine quality to long-term issues such as the suitability of certain varieties and the sustainability of viticulture in traditional wine regions. Many viticultural zones, particularly in Mediterranean climate regions, may not be suitable for growing winegrapes in the near future unless we develop heat-stress-adapted genotypes or identify and exploit stress-tolerant germplasm. Grapevines, like other plants, have developed strategies to maintain homeostasis and cope with high-temperature stress. These mechanisms include physiological adaptations and activation of signaling pathways and gene regulatory networks governing heat stress response and acquisition of thermotolerance. Here, we review the major impacts of global warming on grape phenology and viticulture and focus on the physiological and molecular responses of the grapevine to heat stress.}, }
@article {pmid33321896, year = {2020}, author = {Huang, C and Li, N and Zhang, Z and Liu, Y and Chen, X and Wang, F and Chen, Q}, title = {What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {33321896}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Agriculture/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; China ; *Climate Change ; Consensus ; *Crops, Agricultural ; }, abstract = {Many studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on crop yield in China, while results have varied due to uncertain factors. This study has drawn a highly consistent consensus from the scientific evidence based on numerous existing studies. By a highly rational systematic review methodology, we obtained 737 result samples with the theme of climate change affecting China's crop yields. Then, we used likelihood scale and trend analysis methods to quantify the consensus level and uncertainty interval of these samples. The results showed that: (i) The crop yield decrease in the second half of the 21st century will be greater than 5% of that in the first half. (ii) The crop most affected by climate change will be maize, with the decreased value exceeding -25% at the end of this century, followed by rice and wheat exceeding -10% and -5%. (iii) The positive impact of CO2 on crop yield will change by nearly 10%. Our conclusions clarify the consensus of the impact of future climate change on China's crop yield, and this study helps exclude the differences and examine the policies and actions that China has taken and should take in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33318195, year = {2020}, author = {Morgan, R and Finnøen, MH and Jensen, H and Pélabon, C and Jutfelt, F}, title = {Low potential for evolutionary rescue from climate change in a tropical fish.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {52}, pages = {33365-33372}, pmid = {33318195}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Acclimatization/physiology ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; *Tropical Climate ; Zebrafish/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasing global temperatures and intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme heat waves. How organisms will cope with these changes depends on their inherent thermal tolerance, acclimation capacity, and ability for evolutionary adaptation. Yet, the potential for adaptation of upper thermal tolerance in vertebrates is largely unknown. We artificially selected offspring from wild-caught zebrafish (Danio rerio) to increase (Up-selected) or decrease (Down-selected) upper thermal tolerance over six generations. Selection to increase upper thermal tolerance was also performed on warm-acclimated fish to test whether plasticity in the form of inducible warm tolerance also evolved. Upper thermal tolerance responded to selection in the predicted directions. However, compared to the control lines, the response was stronger in the Down-selected than in the Up-selected lines in which evolution toward higher upper thermal tolerance was slow (0.04 ± 0.008 °C per generation). Furthermore, the scope for plasticity resulting from warm acclimation decreased in the Up-selected lines. These results suggest the existence of a hard limit in upper thermal tolerance. Considering the rate at which global temperatures are increasing, the observed rates of adaptation and the possible hard limit in upper thermal tolerance suggest a low potential for evolutionary rescue in tropical fish living at the edge of their thermal limits.}, }
@article {pmid33317777, year = {2021}, author = {Abdelmohsen, S and Verheecke-Vaessen, C and Garcia-Cela, E and Medina, A and Magan, N}, title = {Dynamics of solute/matric stress interactions with climate change abiotic factors on growth, gene expression and ochratoxin A production by Penicillium verrucosum on a wheat-based matrix.}, journal = {Fungal biology}, volume = {125}, number = {1}, pages = {62-68}, doi = {10.1016/j.funbio.2020.10.005}, pmid = {33317777}, issn = {1878-6146}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Gene Expression Regulation, Fungal/physiology ; *Ochratoxins/analysis/biosynthesis ; *Penicillium/chemistry/genetics/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Triticum/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Penicillium verrucosum contaminates temperate cereals with ochratoxin A (OTA) during harvesting and storage. We examined the effect of temperature (25 vs 30 [o]C), CO2 (400 vs 1000 ppm) and matric/solute stress (-2.8 vs -7.0 MPa) on (i) growth, (ii) key OTA biosynthetic genes and (iii) OTA production on a milled wheat substrate. Growth was generally faster under matric than solute stress at 25 [o]C, regardless of CO2 concentrations. At 30 [o]C, growth of P. verrucosum was significantly reduced under solute stress in both CO2 treatments, with no growth observed at -2.8 MPa (=0.98 water activity, aw) and 1000 ppm CO2. Overall, growth patterns under solute stress was slower in elevated CO2 than under matric stress when compared with existing conditions. The otapksPV gene expression was increased under elevated CO2 levels in matric stress treatments. There was fewer effects on the otanrpsPV biosynthetic gene. This pattern was paralleled with the production of OTA under these conditions. This suggest that P. verrucosum is able to actively grow and survive in both soil and on crop debris under three way interacting climate-related abiotic factors. This resilience suggests that they would still be able to pose an OTA contamination risk in temperate cereals post-harvest.}, }
@article {pmid33316607, year = {2021}, author = {Pack, KE and Rius, M and Mieszkowska, N}, title = {Long-term environmental tolerance of the non-indigenous Pacific oyster to expected contemporary climate change conditions.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {164}, number = {}, pages = {105226}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105226}, pmid = {33316607}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Crassostrea ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Salinity ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {The current global redistribution of biota is often attributed to two main drivers: contemporary climate change (CCC) and non-indigenous species (NIS). Despite evidence of synergetic effects, however, studies assessing long-term effects of CCC conditions on NIS fitness remain rare. We examined the interactive effects of warming, ocean acidification and reduced salinity on the globally distributed marine NIS Magallana gigas (Pacific oyster) over a ten-month period. Growth, clearance and oxygen consumption rates were measured monthly to assess individual fitness. Lower salinity had a significant, permanent effect on M. gigas, reducing and increasing clearance and oxygen consumption rates, respectively. Neither predicted increases in seawater temperature nor reduced pH had a long-term physiological effect, indicating conditions predicted for 2100 will not affect adult physiology and survival. These results suggest that M. gigas will remain a globally successful NIS and predicted CCC will continue to facilitate their competitive dominance in the near future.}, }
@article {pmid33315471, year = {2021}, author = {Senay, E and Sarfaty, M and Rice, MB}, title = {Strategies for Clinical Discussions About Climate Change.}, journal = {Annals of internal medicine}, volume = {174}, number = {3}, pages = {417-418}, pmid = {33315471}, issn = {1539-3704}, mesh = {COVID-19/epidemiology/etiology ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; Humans ; *Physician-Patient Relations ; }, abstract = {This commentary links the climate crisis with the pandemic in how both are the subject of campaigns to doubt the science. The authors discuss how clinicians have a clear role to play in countering misinformation.}, }
@article {pmid33314177, year = {2021}, author = {Concostrina-Zubiri, L and Valencia, E and Ochoa, V and Gozalo, B and Mendoza, BJ and Maestre, FT}, title = {Species-specific effects of biocrust-forming lichens on soil properties under simulated climate change are driven by functional traits.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {230}, number = {1}, pages = {101-115}, doi = {10.1111/nph.17143}, pmid = {33314177}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Ascomycota ; *Bryophyta ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Lichens ; Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Biocrusts are key drivers of ecosystem functioning in drylands, yet our understanding of how climate change will affect the chemistry of biocrust-forming species and their impacts on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling is still very limited. Using a manipulative experiment conducted with common biocrust-forming lichens with distinct morphology and chemistry (Buellia zoharyi, Diploschistes diacapsis, Psora decipiens and Squamarina lentigera), we evaluated changes in lichen total and isotopic C and N and several soil C and N variables after 50 months of simulated warming and rainfall reduction. Climate change treatments reduced δ[13] C and the C : N ratio in B. zoharyi, and increased δ[15] N in S. lentigera. Lichens had species-specific effects on soil dissolved organic N (DON), NH4+ , β-glucosidase and acid phosphatase activity regardless of climate change treatments, while these treatments changed how lichens affected several soil properties regardless of biocrust species. Changes in thallus δ[13] C, N and C : N drove species-specific effects on dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), NH4+ , β-glucosidase and acid phosphatase activity. Our findings indicate that warmer and drier conditions will alter the chemistry of biocrust-forming lichens, affecting soil nutrient cycling, and emphasize their key role as modulators of climate change impacts in dryland soils.}, }
@article {pmid33314119, year = {2021}, author = {Yacine, Y and Allhoff, KT and Weinbach, A and Loeuille, N}, title = {Collapse and rescue of evolutionary food webs under global warming.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {3}, pages = {710-722}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13405}, pmid = {33314119}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Ecosystem ; *Food Chain ; Global Warming ; }, abstract = {Global warming is severely impacting ecosystems and threatening ecosystem services as well as human well-being. While some species face extinction risk, several studies suggest the possibility that fast evolution may allow species to adapt and survive in spite of environmental changes. We assess how such evolutionary rescue extends to multitrophic communities and whether evolution systematically preserves biodiversity under global warming. More precisely, we expose simulated trophic networks of co-evolving consumers to warming under different evolutionary scenarios, which allows us to assess the effect of evolution on diversity maintenance. We also investigate how the evolution of body mass and feeding preference affects coexistence within a simplified consumer-resource module. Our simulations predict that the long-term diversity loss triggered by warming is considerably higher in scenarios where evolution is slowed down or switched off completely, indicating that eco-evolutionary feedback indeed helps to preserve biodiversity. However, even with fast evolution, food webs still experience vast disruptions in their structure and functioning. Reversing warming may thus not be sufficient to restore previous structures. Our findings highlight how the interaction between evolutionary rescue and changes in trophic structures constrains ecosystem responses to warming with important implications for conservation and management policies.}, }
@article {pmid33313437, year = {2020}, author = {Van Huynh, C and Phuong Le, QN and Hong Nguyen, MT and Tran, PT and Nguyen, TQ and Pham, TG and Khanh Nguyen, LH and Dieu Nguyen, LT and Trinh, HN}, title = {Indigenous knowledge in relation to climate change: adaptation practices used by the Xo Dang people of central Vietnam.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {e05656}, pmid = {33313437}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Even though indigenous knowledge (IK) is considered as one of the most effective strategies in response to climate change issues, this form is not being sufficiently integrated into the climate change planning and policy at both local and national levels in Vietnam. This study investigates the role of the traditional agricultural practices of the Xo Dang ethnic minority groups in Central Vietnam and provides insights into the factors that influence farmers to adopt these practices in response to climate change. Primary data was obtained through three focus group discussions and 87 household surveys involving the Xo Dang people through face-to-face semi-structured interviews in the Tra Doc commune, Bac Tra My district, Quang Nam province, Central Vietnam. The binary logistic regression model was used to examine the factors which have influenced the choices made by this community in response to climate change. The results showed that Xo Dang people were highly aware of climate change risks and had, in response, employed their current adaptation practices. The major adaptation strategies implemented by the Xo Dang people included the use of flora and fauna indicators, native plant varieties, the adjustment of planting calendars, irrigation practices, and the application of intercropping. The results indicated that the living years, their monthly farm incomes, and farmer's perceptions of ongoing climate change effects on their environment were the factors that significantly affected farmers' adaptation decisions. Understanding indigenous knowledge plays a fundamental role in the processes of deciding the appropriate adaptation techniques more effectively and making use of human resources. Therefore, policy makers should pay much attention to indigenous knowledge to combat climate change in future national policies and projects.}, }
@article {pmid33312582, year = {2020}, author = {Yazdanpanah Dero, Q and Yari, E and Charrahy, Z}, title = {Global warming, environmental security and its geo-economic dimensions case study: Caspian Sea level changes on the balance of transit channels.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health science &amp; engineering}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {541-557}, pmid = {33312582}, issn = {2052-336X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global warming and climate change are considered as important environmental problems. Environmental security is more pronounced with regard to the Caspian Sea. Due to the geopolitical and geo-economic dimensions on the one hand, and its unique characteristics on the other, this large lake is considerably fragile against environmental challenges. In fact, the innate isolation of the Caspian Sea makes its conditions with regard to global warming unique. Using a descriptive-analytical method and library and valid article references, this study seeks to answer the question: "what are the effects of global warming on environmental security and what challenges does it pose to the Caspian Sea from the geo-economic point of view?"<br><br>METHODS: And Also maps and charts related to the research topic were collected and plotted in the GIS. In the next step, using a descriptive-analytical method based on geopolitical perspectives, especially environmental geopolitical studies and internet searches, we analyze the spatial effects of this universal phenomenon in the context of environmental geopolitical systems.<br><br>RESULTS: The findings indicate that global warming will pose a large spectrum of challenges and problems to the Caspian Sea from the destruction of its ecosystems to the complete transformation of its nature. This research has studied global warming and its effects on the sea level changes of the Caspian Sea and particularly the level of water in the transit channels of the Caspian Sea from the geo-economic point of view.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results show that fluctuations in the water level of the Caspian Sea, in addition to environmental challenges, narrow the balance of its transit channels and threaten the geo-economics and environmental security of the Caspian Sea.}, }
@article {pmid33312573, year = {2020}, author = {Nassiri, P and Monazzam, MR and Golbabaei, F and Farhang Dehghan, S and Shamsipour, A and Ghanadzadeh, MJ and Asghari, M}, title = {Modeling heat stress changes based on wet-bulb globe temperature in respect to global warming.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health science &amp; engineering}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {441-450}, pmid = {33312573}, issn = {2052-336X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This ecological study aims to model the trend of changes in exposure of outdoor workers to heat stress in outdoors in the coming decades with the use of the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), Hadley Coupled Atmosphere- Ocean General Circulation Model, version 3 (HADCM3), and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) in Tehran, Iran, considering the climate change and the global warming.<br><br>METHODS: The hourly values of environmental parameters including minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and radiation related to Prakash , Shahriar and Damavand cities were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of Iran. These data were recorded during 1965 to 2015. The climate modeling was done for 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099.<br><br>RESULTS: The minimum and maximum air temperatures in the different months of the year in the three studied cities show an increasing trend. Our finding shows that the WBGT will be increased by 2099. In Pakdasht, this index will be close to the danger zone in the coming years, especially in 2080-2099.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: All the results obtained indicate an increase in risk of heat stress in outdoor workplaces, given the global warming.}, }
@article {pmid33308177, year = {2020}, author = {Ephraim, RKD and Asamoah, CA and Abaka-Yawson, A and Kwadzokpui, PK and Adusei, S}, title = {Climate change causes changes in biochemical markers of kidney disease.}, journal = {BMC nephrology}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {542}, pmid = {33308177}, issn = {1471-2369}, mesh = {Adult ; *Blood Pressure ; Body Mass Index ; *Climate Change ; Creatinine/*blood ; Female ; Ghana/epidemiology ; *Glomerular Filtration Rate ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Obesity/epidemiology ; Overweight/*epidemiology ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/*blood ; *Seasons ; Urea/*blood ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a significant threat to the health of the Ghanaian people. Evidence abounds in Ghana that temperatures in all the ecological zones are rising, whereas rainfall levels have been generally reducing and patterns are increasingly becoming erratic. The study estimated the impact of climate variation between seasons on biochemical markers of kidney disease.<br><br>METHODS: This study conveniently recruited 50 apparently healthy peasant farmers and hawkers at Wa in the Upper West Region of Ghana. A pre-study screening for hepatitis A and C, Diabetes mellitus, hypertension was done. Serum creatinine and urea levels were analyzed to rule out kidney preexisting kidney disease. Baseline data was collected by estimating urea, creatinine, sodium, potassium, eGFR (estimated glomerular filtration rate) as well as for hemoglobin (Hb) and hematocrit (Hct) concentrations. Anthropometric data such as height, weight and blood pressure were measured by trained personnel. The study participants were closely followed and alerted deep in the dry season for the second sampling (urea, creatinine, hemoglobin, hematocrit, blood pressure, anthropometry).<br><br>RESULTS: This study recruited more males (58.82%) than females (41.15%), majority (52.92%) of which were aged 25-29&#x2009;years with the youngest being 22&#x2009;years and the eldest being 35&#x2009;years. The study found body mass index (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001), systolic blood pressure (p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.019), creatinine (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001), urea (p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.013) and eGFR (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001) to be significantly influenced by climate change. Stage 1 hypertension was predominant among the study participants during the dry season, 8 (15.69%) than was observed during the rainy season, 4 (7.84%) nonetheless the number of participants with normal BMI rose from 49.02% in the rainy season to 62.75% during the dry reason. Additionally, the study observed that the impact of climate change on systolic blood pressure and urea varied based on age and sex.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study revealed that climatic changes cause variations in various biochemical parameters used to assess kidney function. Public health education on climatic changes and its implication including precautionary measures should be done among inhabitants of Wa and its environs to reduce its effect. Additionally, appropriate dietary patterns should also be advised to avoid the development of non-communicable diseases such as hypertension and obesity that are known principal causes of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD).}, }
@article {pmid33306704, year = {2020}, author = {Narita, D and Sato, I and Ogawada, D and Matsumura, A}, title = {Integrating economic measures of adaptation effectiveness into climate change interventions: A case study of irrigation development in Mwea, Kenya.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {e0243779}, pmid = {33306704}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Hydrology ; Kenya ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {As climate change adaptation is becoming a recognized policy issue, the need is growing for quantitative economic evaluation of adaptation-related public investment, particularly in the context of climate finance. Funds are meant to be allocated not to any types of beneficial investments with or without climate change but to projects regarded as effective for climate change adaptation based on some metrics. But attempts at such project-specific evaluation of adaptation effects are few, in part because such assessments require an integration of various types of simulation analyses. Against this background, we conduct a case study of a Kenyan irrigation development project using a combination of downscaled climate data, runoff simulations, yield forecasting, and local socioeconomic projections to examine the effects of interventions specifically attributable to climate change adaptation, i.e., how much irrigation development can reduce the negative effects of climate change in the future. The results show that despite the uncertainties in precipitation trends, increased temperatures due to climate change have a general tendency to reduce rice yields, and that irrigation development will mitigate income impacts from the yield loss-for example, for the median scenario, the household income loss of 6% in 2050 due to climate change without irrigation development is flipped to become positive with the project. This means that the irrigation development project will likely be effective as a means for climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid33305179, year = {2020}, author = {Ceccarelli, S and Grando, S}, title = {Evolutionary Plant Breeding as a Response to the Complexity of Climate Change.}, journal = {iScience}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {101815}, pmid = {33305179}, issn = {2589-0042}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the processes that have already overstepped the safe planetary boundaries, together with the rate of biodiversity loss and human interference with the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. The three processes are related to agriculture and, as such, to both food safety and food security, and ultimately to human health. Adaptation to climate change is a difficult breeding objective because of its complexity, its unpredictability, and its location specificity. However, one strategy exists, which is based on a more dynamic use of agrobiodiversity in agriculture through the cultivation of evolutionary populations. In this review, we show how the translation into agricultural practice of nearly 100 years of research on evolutionary populations and mixtures is able to address the complexity of climate change while stabilizing yield, decreasing the use of most agrochemicals, thus reducing emissions and producing healthy food.}, }
@article {pmid33304531, year = {2020}, author = {Breslin, PB and Wojciechowski, MF and Albuquerque, F}, title = {Projected climate change threatens significant range contraction of Cochemiea halei (Cactaceae), an island endemic, serpentine-adapted plant species at risk of extinction.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {23}, pages = {13211-13224}, pmid = {33304531}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {AIM: Threats faced by narrowly distributed endemic plant species in the face of the Earth's sixth mass extinction and climate change exposure are especially severe for taxa on islands. We investigated the current and projected distribution and range changes of Cochemiea halei, an endemic island cactus. This taxon is of conservation concern, currently listed as vulnerable on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List and as a species of special concern under Mexican federal law. The goals of this study are to (a) identify the correlations between climate variables and current suitable habitat for C. halei; (b) determine whether the species is a serpentine endemic or has a facultative relationship with ultramafic soils; and (c) predict range changes of the species based on climate change scenarios.<br><br>LOCATION: The island archipelago in Bah&#xed;a Magdalena on the Pacific coast, Baja California Sur, Mexico.<br><br>METHODS: We used temperature and precipitation variables at 30-arc second resolution and soil type, employing multiple species distribution modeling methods, to identify important climate and soil conditions driving current habitat suitability. The best model of current suitability is used to predict possible effects of four climate change scenarios based on best-case to worst-case representative concentration pathways, with projected climate data from two general circulation models, over two time periods.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of the species is found to be strongly correlated with ultramafic soils. The most important climate predictor for habitat suitability is annual temperature range. The species is predicted to undergo range contractions from 21% to 53%, depending on the severity and duration of exposure to climate change. The broader implications for a wide range of narrowly adapted, threatened, and endemic plant species indicate an urgent need for threat assessment based on habitat suitability and climate change modeling.}, }
@article {pmid33304502, year = {2020}, author = {Schneider, D and Ramos, AG and Córdoba-Aguilar, A}, title = {Multigenerational experimental simulation of climate change on an economically important insect pest.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {23}, pages = {12893-12909}, pmid = {33304502}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Long-term multigenerational experimental simulations of climate change on insect pests of economically and socially important crops are crucial to anticipate challenges for feeding humanity in the not-so-far future. Mexican bean weevil Zabrotes subfasciatus, is a worldwide pest that attacks the common bean Phaseolus vulgaris seeds, in crops and storage. We designed a long term (i.e., over 10 generations), experimental simulation of climate change by increasing temperature and CO2 air concentration in controlled conditions according to model predictions for 2100. Higher temperature and CO2 concentrations favored pest's egg-to-adult development survival, even at high female fecundity. It also induced a reduction of fat storage and increase of protein content but did not alter body size. After 10 generations of simulation, genetic adaptation was detected for total lipid content only, however, other traits showed signs of such process. Future experimental designs and methods similar to ours, are key for studying long-term effects of climate change through multigenerational experimental designs.}, }
@article {pmid33304358, year = {2020}, author = {Beca-Carretero, P and Teichberg, M and Winters, G and Procaccini, G and Reuter, H}, title = {Projected Rapid Habitat Expansion of Tropical Seagrass Species in the Mediterranean Sea as Climate Change Progresses.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {555376}, pmid = {33304358}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {During the last 150 years, the tropical seagrass species Halophila stipulacea has established itself in the southern and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea. More recently (2018), Halophila decipiens was observed for the first time in the eastern Mediterranean, and was described as the second non-native seagrass species in the Mediterranean Sea. We implemented a species distribution model (SDM) approach to (1) hindcast the habitat suitability of H. stipulacea over the last 100 years in the Mediterranean basin, and (2) to model the increase in the potential habitat suitability of H. stipulacea and H. decipiens during the current century under two very different climate scenarios, RCP 2.6 (lowest carbon emission scenario) and RCP 8.5 (highest carbon emission scenario). In addition, a principal component analysis (PCA) and k-means cluster based on temperature and salinity drivers were applied to visualize the distance and relatedness between the native and invasive H. stipulacea and H. decipiens populations. Results from this PCA suggest that the H. stipulacea populations of the Mediterranean and Red Sea are likely to be similar. In contrast, H. decipiens from the Mediterranean is more related to the Atlantic populations rather than to the Red Sea populations. The hindcast model suggests that the expansion of H. stipulacea was related to the increases in seawater temperatures in the Mediterranean over the last 100 years. The SDMs predict that more suitable habitat will become available for both tropical species during this century. The habitat suitability for H. stipulacea will keep expanding westward and northward as the Mediterranean continues to become saltier and warmer. In comparison, the SDMs built for H. decipiens forecast a restricted habitat suitability in the south-eastern Mediterranean Sea at the present environmental conditions and predicts a progressive expansion with a potential increase in habitat suitability along 85% of the Mediterranean coastline. The predicted rapid expansion of non-native seagrass species could alter the Mediterranean's seagrass community and may entail massive impacts on associated ecosystem functions and services, impacts that have severe socio-economic consequences.}, }
@article {pmid33303198, year = {2021}, author = {Minaudo, C and Abonyi, A and Leitão, M and Lançon, AM and Floury, M and Descy, JP and Moatar, F}, title = {Long-term impacts of nutrient control, climate change, and invasive clams on phytoplankton and cyanobacteria biomass in a large temperate river.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {756}, number = {}, pages = {144074}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144074}, pmid = {33303198}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Conditioning ; Animals ; Biomass ; *Bivalvia ; Climate Change ; *Cyanobacteria ; Europe ; Eutrophication ; France ; Humans ; Lakes ; North America ; Nutrients ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Phytoplankton ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Recent studies suggest that climate change, with warmer water temperatures and lower and longer low flows, may enhance harmful planktic cyanobacterial growth in lakes and large rivers. Concomitantly, controlling nutrient loadings has proven effective in reducing phytoplankton biomass especially in North America and Western Europe. In addition, the impact of invasive benthic filter-feeder species such as Corbicula on phytoplankton has largely been overlooked in large rivers, leading to even more uncertainty in predicting future trajectories in river water quality. To investigate how nutrient control, climate change and invasion of benthic filter-feeders may affect phytoplankton biomass and composition, we assembled a large database on the entire water course of the River Loire (France) over three decades (1991-2019). We focus on cyanobacteria to provide an in-depth analysis of the 30-year trend and insights on future possible trajectories. Since 1991, total phytoplankton and cyanobacteria biomasses have decreased 10-fold despite warmer water temperature (+0.23 °C·decade[-1]) and lower summer flow (-0.25 L·s[-1]·km[-2]·decade[-1]). In the long-term, the contribution of planktic cyanobacteria to total biomass was on average 2.8%. The main factors driving total phytoplankton and cyanobacteria biomasses were total phosphorus (4-fold decrease), the abundance of Corbicula clams (from absence before 1998 to 250-1250 individuals·m[-2] after 2010), the duration of summer low flows and the intensity of summer heatwaves. The River Loire constitutes an example in Europe of how nutrient control can be an efficient mitigation strategy, counteracting already visible effects of climate change on the thermal regime and flow pattern of the river. This may hold true under future conditions, but further work is needed to account for the climate trajectory, land and water use scenarios, the risk of enhanced benthic biofilm and macrophyte proliferation, together with the spread of invasive filter-feeding bivalves.}, }
@article {pmid33302062, year = {2021}, author = {Richards, R and Meynecke, JO and Sahin, O}, title = {Addressing dynamic uncertainty in the whale-watching industry under climate change and system shocks.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {756}, number = {}, pages = {143889}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143889}, pmid = {33302062}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *COVID-19 ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Whale-watching is a global tourism industry whose annual revenue exceeds two billion dollars. Australia is a key player in this industry, especially on the east and west coast where humpback whales migrate each year between their breeding and feeding grounds. However, the global whale-watching industry faces uncertainty from changing whale migration patterns, with whales progressively 'arriving' at the traditional whale-watching areas earlier than in previous years/decades. If the whale-watching industry cannot evolve with these changing dynamics then the arrival of the whales might be missed resulting in a potential loss of revenue. This social-ecological issue has suddenly been exacerbated by the disruption to tourism caused by the global pandemic COVID-19. In this study, we use a systems modelling framework, which combines qualitative and quantitative processes, to evaluate the social-ecological system behaviour of the whale-watching industry. We apply this systems approach to the Gold Coast, one of Australia's premier tourist destinations and home to a vibrant whale-watching industry. The outcome of this systems assessment is that the efficacy of the whale-watching industry is affected through determinants of both supply (ability to respond to changes in whale behaviour) and demand (attractiveness of whale-watching). Furthermore, the recovery time of all tourism after COVID-19 will take years if not decades.}, }
@article {pmid33302039, year = {2021}, author = {Allen, J and Gross, EM and Courcoul, C and Bouletreau, S and Compin, A and Elger, A and Ferriol, J and Hilt, S and Jassey, VEJ and Laviale, M and Polst, BH and Schmitt-Jansen, M and Stibor, H and Vijayaraj, V and Leflaive, J}, title = {Disentangling the direct and indirect effects of agricultural runoff on freshwater ecosystems subject to global warming: A microcosm study.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {190}, number = {}, pages = {116713}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2020.116713}, pmid = {33302039}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Lakes ; Phytoplankton ; }, abstract = {Aquatic ecosystems are exposed to multiple stressors such as agricultural run-off (ARO) and climate-change related increase of temperature. We aimed to determine how ARO and the frequency of its input can affect shallow lake ecosystems through direct and indirect effects on primary producers and primary consumers, and whether warming can mitigate or reinforce the impact of ARO. We performed a set of microcosm experiments simulating ARO using a cocktail of three organic pesticides (terbuthylazine, tebuconazole, pirimicarb), copper and nitrate. Two experiments were performed to determine the direct effect of ARO on primary producers (submerged macrophytes, periphyton and phytoplankton) and on the grazing snail Lymnaea stagnalis, respectively. Three different ARO concentrations added as single doses or as multiple pulses at two different temperatures (22°C and 26°C) were applied. In a third experiment, primary producers and consumers were exposed together to allow trophic interactions. When functional groups were exposed alone, ARO had a direct positive effect on phytoplankton and a strong negative effect on L. stagnalis. When exposed together, primary producer responses were contrasting, as the negative effect of ARO on grazers led to an indirect positive effect on periphyton. Periphyton in turn exerted a strong control on phytoplankton, leading to an indirect negative effect of ARO on phytoplankton. Macrophytes showed little response to the stressors. Multiple pulse exposure increased the effect of ARO on L. stagnalis and periphyton when compared with the same quantity of ARO added as a single dose. The increase in temperature had only limited effects. Our results highlight the importance of indirect effects of stressors, here mediated by grazers and periphyton, and the frequency of the ARO input in aquatic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid33300726, year = {2020}, author = {Lu, K and He, YM and Mao, W and DU, ZY and Wang, LJ and Liu, GM and Feng, WJ and Duan, YZ}, title = {[Potential geographical distribution and changes of Artemisia ordosica in China under future climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {31}, number = {11}, pages = {3758-3766}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202011.017}, pmid = {33300726}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Artemisia ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Artemisia ordosica is a forerunner species of wind-break and sand-fixation in desert steppe in China, which plays an important role in ecosystem restoration and reconstruction. How-ever, it could influence human health. Based on 89 valid data of current distribution of A. ordosica in China and 19 typical climatic factors, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution of A. ordosica in China under current and two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2050s and 2070s). The SDM toolbox of ArcGIS software was used to analyze the potential distribution range of A. ordosica and its changes in China. The importance of key climatic factors was evaluated by comprehensive contribution rate, Jackknife method, and response curve of environmental variables. The accuracy of model was tested and evaluated by area under the curve (AUC) of the test subject working characteristic (ROC). The results showed that the MaxEnt model worked well (AUC=0.980). which predicted that A. ordosica was mainly concentrated in and around Mu Us Sandy Land, consistent with the current actual distribution range. The distribution area of A. ordosica of potential high fitness under the future two scenarios decreased by 5.2%-26.8%, which was negatively affected by future climate change. Seasonal variation of temperature, mean precipitation in the coldest season, and mean annual temperature had the greatest impact. The core area of future potential distribution of A. ordosica in China was located in Mu Us Sandy Land, with a tendency for spreading to northeast (Jilin, Heilongjiang, Liaoning and some parts of Hebei).}, }
@article {pmid33299383, year = {2020}, author = {Odonkor, ST and Dei, EN and Sallar, AM}, title = {Knowledge, Attitude, and Adaptation to Climate Change in Ghana.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {2020}, number = {}, pages = {3167317}, pmid = {33299383}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Ghana/epidemiology ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a serious challenge to human existence. It threatens efforts towards the attainment of sustainable development goals and aggravates conditions that lead to health inequities and inequalities for vulnerable populations. The study aimed to investigate knowledge and adaptation to climate change among people in Ghana. A nationally representative survey of Ghanaian adults (N = 674) was conducted from August 1, 2019, to December 31, 2019. Results showed that 43.9% of the respondents understood the meaning of climate change. Respondents perceived the causes of climate change to include burning of fossil fuel, deforestation, natural events such as ocean currents, carbon emission from vehicles and industries, agricultural emissions of nitrous oxide from fertilizers, and an act of God. About 53.1% and 41% of the male and female respondents, respectively, had an encounter with climate change-induced natural disasters. About two out of five respondents (43%) were either afraid or confused about climate change. Distilled or maintained public drainage from waste (30.2%) and clearing drains (25.6%) was the leading adaptation strategies towards climate change-induced natural disasters. Training (30.1%), national radio (27.7%), and television (19.1%) were the preferred leading methods for receipt of global warming information. These findings provide useful insights for policy directions. The government of Ghana and other stakeholders should develop a communication strategy to increase and sustain publicity and education on climate change to the citizenry.}, }
@article {pmid33298389, year = {2021}, author = {Mukhopadhyay, R and Sarkar, B and Jat, HS and Sharma, PC and Bolan, NS}, title = {Soil salinity under climate change: Challenges for sustainable agriculture and food security.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {280}, number = {}, pages = {111736}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111736}, pmid = {33298389}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Food Security ; Food Supply ; Salinity ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Soil salinity is one of the major and widespread challenges in the recent era that hinders global food security and environmental sustainability. Worsening the situation, the harmful impacts of climate change accelerate the development of soil salinity, potentially spreading the problem in the near future to currently unaffected regions. This paper aims to synthesise information from published literature about the extent, development mechanisms, and current mitigation strategies for tackling soil salinity, highlighting the opportunities and challenges under climate change situations. Mitigation approaches such as application of amendments, cultivation of tolerant genotypes, suitable irrigation, drainage and land use strategies, conservation agriculture, phytoremediation, and bioremediation techniques have successfully tackled the soil salinity issue, and offered associated benefits of soil carbon sequestration, and conservation and recycling of natural resources. These management practices further improve the socio-economic conditions of the rural farming community in salt-affected areas. We also discuss emerging reclamation strategies such as saline aquaculture integrated with sub surface drainage, tolerant microorganisms integrated with tolerant plant genotypes, integrated agro-farming systems that warrant future research attention to restore the agricultural sustainability and global food security under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid33295684, year = {2021}, author = {Felton, AJ and Knapp, AK and Smith, MD}, title = {Precipitation-productivity relationships and the duration of precipitation anomalies: An underappreciated dimension of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {6}, pages = {1127-1140}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15480}, pmid = {33295684}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DEB-1354732//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; 2018-68002-27923//U.S. Department of Agriculture/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; }, abstract = {In terrestrial ecosystems, climate change forecasts of increased frequencies and magnitudes of wet and dry precipitation anomalies are expected to shift precipitation-net primary productivity (PPT-NPP) relationships from linear to nonlinear. Less understood, however, is how future changes in the duration of PPT anomalies will alter PPT-NPP relationships. A review of the literature shows strong potential for the duration of wet and dry PPT anomalies to impact NPP and to interact with the magnitude of anomalies. Within semi-arid and mesic grassland ecosystems, PPT gradient experiments indicate that short-duration (1 year) PPT anomalies are often insufficient to drive nonlinear aboveground NPP responses. But long-term studies, within desert to forest ecosystems, demonstrate how multi-year PPT anomalies may result in increasing impacts on NPP through time, and thus alter PPT-NPP relationships. We present a conceptual model detailing how NPP responses to PPT anomalies may amplify with the duration of an event, how responses may vary in xeric vs. mesic ecosystems, and how these differences are most likely due to demographic mechanisms. Experiments that can unravel the independent and interactive impacts of the magnitude and duration of wet and dry PPT anomalies are needed, with multi-site long-term PPT gradient experiments particularly well-suited for this task.}, }
@article {pmid33293562, year = {2020}, author = {Román, M and Román, S and Vázquez, E and Troncoso, J and Olabarria, C}, title = {Heatwaves during low tide are critical for the physiological performance of intertidal macroalgae under global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {21408}, pmid = {33293562}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Chlorophyta/*physiology ; Global Warming ; Portugal ; Sargassum/*physiology ; Seaweed/*physiology ; Spain ; }, abstract = {The abundance and distribution of intertidal canopy-forming macroalgae are threatened by the increase in sea surface temperature and in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves caused by global warming. This study evaluated the physiological response of predominant intertidal macroalgae in the NW Iberian Peninsula (Bifurcaria bifurcata, Cystoseira tamariscifolia and Codium tomentosum) to increased seawater temperature during immersion and increased air temperatures during consecutive emersion cycles. We combined field mensuration and laboratory experiments in which we measured mortality, growth, maximum quantum yield and C:N content of the macroalgae. Air temperature was a critical factor in determining physiological responses and survivorship of all species, whereas high seawater temperature had sublethal effects. Cystoseira tamariscifolia suffered the greatest decreases in Fv/Fm, growth and the highest mortality under higher air temperatures, whereas C. tomentosum was the most resistant and resilient species. Two consecutive cycles of emersion under atmospheric heatwaves caused cumulative stress in all three macroalgae, affecting the physiological performance and increasing the mortality. The potential expansion of the warm-temperate species B. bifurcata, C. tamariscifolia and C. tomentosum in the NW Iberian Peninsula in response to increasing seawater temperature may be affected by the impact of increased air temperature, especially in a region where the incidence of atmospheric heatwaves is expected to increase.}, }
@article {pmid33293093, year = {2021}, author = {Vila-Traver, J and Aguilera, E and Infante-Amate, J and González de Molina, M}, title = {Climate change and industrialization as the main drivers of Spanish agriculture water stress.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {760}, number = {}, pages = {143399}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143399}, pmid = {33293093}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In recent decades, there has been growing concern regarding worsening global climate conditions for agricultural production, especially in Mediterranean climate and other semi-arid areas where the scarcity of water is a major problem. The objective of the study was to estimate the long-term evolution (in Spain, over 1922-2016) of the decoupling between crop's water requirements and the green water available, and to analyze the causes of the changes. The FA0-56 methodology was followed to estimate the green water, blue water and water stress of crops, via an explicit territorial distribution, using 0.5[o] grid cells. We propose a new indicator called Violet Water. This indicator groups together the water stress of the rainfed croplands and the blue water of the irrigated croplands, representing the components of this decoupling. Our results show that crops´ water requirements increased by 21% and violet water by 30% over the study period. The decomposition analysis used to study the drivers of these changes suggests that increasing reference evapotranspiration, caused by global warming, was the major driver triggering the growth of crop water requirements. Meanwhile, the changes in violet water values were mainly driven by the coupling of the cropland's spatiotemporal structure and climate change. The sensitivity analysis performed showed that the increasing trends in water stress, blue water and violet water were consistent for almost all the tested scenarios, but significant differences on the scale aroused depending on the climate data used (climate normal or each year climate) and specially on the geographical and historical Kc adjustment (crop-fixed Kc versus adjusted Kc). This highlights the importance of considering simultaneously the effect of the different factors, but also the need for refining this type of adjustment in future research.}, }
@article {pmid33292990, year = {2020}, author = {Srinivasa Rao, M and Rama Rao, CA and Sreelakshmi, P and Islam, A and Subba Rao, AVM and Ravindra Chary, G and Bhaskar, S}, title = {Pest scenario of Spodoptera litura (Fab.) on groundnut under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) based climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {94}, number = {}, pages = {102749}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2020.102749}, pmid = {33292990}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Animals ; Arachis/*parasitology ; *Climate Change ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; *Models, Theoretical ; Spodoptera/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Multi-model ensemble of Maximum (Tmax) and Minimum (Tmin) temperature data of four Representative Concentration Pathways viz., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models were generated for ten major groundnut growing locations of the India to predict the number of generations of Spodoptera litura (Fab.) using Growing Degree Days approach during three future climate viz., Near (NF), Distant (DF) and Very Distant (VDF) periods and were compared over 1976-2005 baseline period (BL). Projections indicate significant increase in Tmax (0.7-4.7 °C) and Tmin (0.7-5.1 °C) in NF, DF and VDF periods under the four RCP scenarios at the ten groundnut growing locations. Higher percent increase of the number of generations of S. litura was predicted to occur in VDF (6-38%) over baseline, followed by DF (5-22%) and NF (4-9%) periods with reduction of generation time (5-26%) across the four RCP scenarios. Reduction of crop duration was higher (12-22 days) in long duration groundnut than in medium and short duration groundnut. Decrease in crop duration was higher in VDF (12.1-20.8 days) than DF (8.26-13.15 days) and NF (4.46-6.15 days) climate change periods under RCP 8.5 scenario. Increase in number of generations of S. litura was predicted even with altered crop duration of groundnut. Among locations, more number of generations of S. litura with reduced generation time are likely at Vridhachalam and Tirupathi locations. Geographical location (74-77%) and climate period (15-19%), together explained over 90 percent of the total variation in the number of generations and generation time of S. litura. These findings suggest that the incidence of S. litura on groundnut could be higher in future.}, }
@article {pmid33291709, year = {2020}, author = {Jones, R and Macmillan, A and Reid, P}, title = {Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Co-Impacts on Indigenous Health: A Scoping Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {33291709}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Services, Indigenous ; Humans ; Indigenous Peoples ; *Population Groups ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change mitigation policies can either facilitate or hinder progress towards health equity, and can have particular implications for Indigenous health. We sought to summarize current knowledge about the potential impacts (co-benefits and co-harms) of climate mitigation policies and interventions on Indigenous health. Using a Kaupapa Māori theoretical positioning, we adapted a validated search strategy to identify studies for this scoping review. Our review included empirical and modeling studies that examined a range of climate change mitigation measures, with health-related outcomes analyzed by ethnicity or socioeconomic status. Data were extracted from published reports and summarized. We identified 36 studies that examined a diverse set of policy instruments, with the majority located in high-income countries. Most studies employed conventional Western research methodologies, and few examined potential impacts of particular relevance to Indigenous peoples. The existing body of knowledge is limited in the extent to which it can provide definitive evidence about co-benefits and co-harms for Indigenous health, with impacts highly dependent on individual policy characteristics and contextual factors. Improving the quality of evidence will require research partnerships with Indigenous communities and study designs that centralize Indigenous knowledges, values, realities and priorities.}, }
@article {pmid33290701, year = {2020}, author = {Delhey, K and Dale, J and Valcu, M and Kempenaers, B}, title = {Why climate change should generally lead to lighter coloured animals.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {30}, number = {23}, pages = {R1406-R1407}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2020.10.070}, pmid = {33290701}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; }, abstract = {How species will adapt to future climate change is a key question in modern biology. One way to predict such adaptation is to draw from our knowledge of current spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. These are often summarised by different ecogeographical rules that describe how environmental gradients predict geographic variation in form and function. A recent review in Current Biology [1] synthesises how ecogeographical rules can lead to predictions about future responses to climate change in terms of appendage size, physiology, life-history traits, distribution and colour. Based on Gloger's rule, which predicts darker coloured animals in warm and wet environments, Tian and Benton [1] suggest that animals will become darker with global warming. Although the authors mention that uncertainties in the way this ecogeographical rule is interpreted make predictions difficult [1], here we argue that the opposite scenario is more likely - that selection will favour animals with lighter colours.}, }
@article {pmid33288980, year = {2021}, author = {Morales-Molino, C and Steffen, M and Samartin, S and van Leeuwen, JFN and Hürlimann, D and Vescovi, E and Tinner, W}, title = {Long-Term Responses of Mediterranean Mountain Forests to Climate Change, Fire and Human Activities in the Northern Apennines (Italy).}, journal = {Ecosystems (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {1361-1377}, pmid = {33288980}, issn = {1432-9840}, abstract = {Fagus sylvatica (beech) dominates the montane forests of the Apennines and builds old-growth high-conservation value stands. However, recent severe drought-induced diebacks raise concern on the future persistence of these forests and of Southern European mesophilous woodlands overall, growing at their dry edge. To explore the history of Apennine beech-dominated forests, we draw on the multiproxy paleoecological record from Lago Verdarolo, which includes a robust vegetation-independent temperature reconstruction. Numerical techniques are used to investigate the drivers of long-term Mediterranean mountain forest dynamics. Specifically, we focus on disentangling the ecological factors that caused the shift from high-diversity mixed forests to beech-dominated stands and on assessing the occurrence of legacy effects on present-day forests. Abrupt climate change largely drove vegetation dynamics during the Late Glacial and Early Holocene. Species-rich mixed Abies alba (silver fir) forests dominated about 10,500-5500 years ago, under rather dry and warmer-than-today conditions (+ 1-2 °C) and limited fire occurrence. Cooler and moister summers and increasing fire activity caused declines in several fire-sensitive temperate deciduous trees (for example, Ulmus, Tilia, Fraxinus) and favored the establishment of fir-beech forests around 5500 years ago. Further enhancement of fire activity and farming around 2000 years ago led to local Abies alba extinction and forest impoverishment. We conclude that the currently widespread monospecific Apennine beech forests are the result of multi-millennial land-use intensification superimposed on Late Holocene cooling and moistening. Given their higher drought-tolerance compared to beech stands, reviving ancient species-rich mixed fir forests represents a feasible and 'tested' possibility to adapt forests to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33288709, year = {2020}, author = {Arneth, A and Shin, YJ and Leadley, P and Rondinini, C and Bukvareva, E and Kolb, M and Midgley, GF and Oberdorff, T and Palomo, I and Saito, O}, title = {Post-2020 biodiversity targets need to embrace climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {49}, pages = {30882-30891}, pmid = {33288709}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Feedback ; }, abstract = {Recent assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) have highlighted the risks to humanity arising from the unsustainable use of natural resources. Thus far, land, freshwater, and ocean exploitation have been the chief causes of biodiversity loss. Climate change is projected to be a rapidly increasing additional driver for biodiversity loss. Since climate change and biodiversity loss impact human societies everywhere, bold solutions are required that integrate environmental and societal objectives. As yet, most existing international biodiversity targets have overlooked climate change impacts. At the same time, climate change mitigation measures themselves may harm biodiversity directly. The Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 framework offers the important opportunity to address the interactions between climate change and biodiversity and revise biodiversity targets accordingly by better aligning these with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. We identify the considerable number of existing and proposed post-2020 biodiversity targets that risk being severely compromised due to climate change, even if other barriers to their achievement were removed. Our analysis suggests that the next set of biodiversity targets explicitly addresses climate change-related risks since many aspirational goals will not be feasible under even lower-end projections of future warming. Adopting more flexible and dynamic approaches to conservation, rather than static goals, would allow us to respond flexibly to changes in habitats, genetic resources, species composition, and ecosystem functioning and leverage biodiversity's capacity to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid33288265, year = {2021}, author = {Baker, NJ and Pilotto, F and Jourdan, J and Beudert, B and Haase, P}, title = {Recovery from air pollution and subsequent acidification masks the effects of climate change on a freshwater macroinvertebrate community.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {758}, number = {}, pages = {143685}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143685}, pmid = {33288265}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; Germany ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Invertebrates ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Freshwater ecosystems are dynamic, complex systems with a multitude of physical and ecological processes and stressors which drive fluctuations on the community-level. Disentangling the effects of different processes and stressors is challenging due to their interconnected nature. However, as protected areas (i.e. national parks) are less anthropogenically impacted, they are ideal for investigating single stressors. We focus on the Bavarian Forest National Park, a Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site in Germany, where the major stressors are climate warming, air pollution (i.e. acidification) and bark beetle infestations. We investigated the effects of these stressors on freshwater macroinvertebrates using comprehensive long-term (1983-2014) datasets comprising high-resolution macroinvertebrate and physico-chemical data from a near-natural stream. Macroinvertebrate communities have undergone substantial changes over the past 32 years, highlighted by increases in overall community abundance (+173%) and richness (+51.6%) as well as taxonomic restructuring driven by a disproportional increase of dipterans. Prior to the year 2000, regression analyses revealed a decline in sulphate deposition and subsequent recovery from historical acidification as potential drivers of the increases in abundance and richness rather than to increases in water temperature (1.5 °C overall increase). Post 2000, however, alterations to nutrient cycling caused by bark beetle infestations coupled with warming temperatures were correlated to taxonomic restructuring and disproportional increases of dipterans at the expense of sensitive taxa such as plecopterans and trichopterans. Our results highlight the challenges when investigating the effects of climate change within a multi-stressor context. Even in conservation areas, recovery from previous disturbance might mask the effects of ongoing disturbances like climate change. Overall, we observed strong community restructuring, demonstrating that stenothermal headwater communities face additional stress due to emerging competition with tolerant taxa. Conservation efforts should consider the temporal variability of communities and their recovery from disturbances to adequately identify species vulnerable to local or widespread extinction.}, }
@article {pmid33287137, year = {2020}, author = {Feliciano, RJ and Boué, G and Membré, JM}, title = {Overview of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Microbial Safety of the Dairy Industry.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {33287137}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to affect many different sectors across the food supply chain. The current review paper presents an overview of the effects of climate change on the microbial safety of the dairy supply chain and suggest potential mitigation strategies to limit the impact. Raw milk, the common raw material of dairy products, is vulnerable to climate change, influenced by changes in average temperature and amount of precipitation. This would induce changes in the microbial profile and heat stress in lactating cows, increasing susceptibility to microbial infection and higher levels of microbial contamination. Moreover, climate change affects the entire dairy supply chain and necessitates adaptation of all the current food safety management programs. In particular, the review of current prerequisite programs might be needed as well as revisiting the current microbial specifications of the receiving dairy products and the introduction of new pretreatments with stringent processing regimes. The effects on microbial changes during distribution and consumer handling also would need to be quantified through the use of predictive models. The development of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) models, considering the whole farm-to-fork chain to evaluate risk mitigation strategies, will be a key step to prioritize actions towards a climate change-resilient dairy industry.}, }
@article {pmid33286362, year = {2020}, author = {Lozano, A and Cabrera, P and Blanco-Marigorta, AM}, title = {Non-Linear Regression Modelling to Estimate the Global Warming Potential of a Newspaper.}, journal = {Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {33286362}, issn = {1099-4300}, support = {INTERREG MAC 2014-2020 programme, ENERMAC project (MAC2/1.1a/117)//European Regional Development Fund/ ; }, abstract = {Technological innovations are not enough by themselves to achieve social and environmental sustainability in companies. Sustainable development aims to determine the environmental impact of a product and the hidden price of products and services through the concept of radical transparency. This means that companies should show and disclose the impact on the environment of any good or service. This way, the consumer can choose in a transparent manner, not only for the price. The use of the eco-label as a European eco-label, which bases its criteria on life cycle assessment, could provide an indicator of corporate social responsibility for a given product. However, it does not give a full guarantee that the product was obtained in a sustainable manner. The aim of this work is to provide a way of calculating the value of the environmental impacts of an industrial product, under different operating conditions, so that each company can provide detailed information on the impacts of its products, information that can form part of its "green product sheet". As a case study, the daily production of a newspaper, printed by coldset, has been chosen. Each process involved in production was configured with raw material and energy consumption information from production plants, manufacturer data and existing databases. Four non-linear regression models have been trained to estimate the impact of a newspaper's circulation from five input variables (pages, grammage, height, paper type, and print run) with 5508 data samples each. These non-linear regression models were trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt nonlinear least squares algorithm. The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) obtained by all the non-linear regression models tested were less than 5%. Through the proposed correlations, it is possible to obtain a score that reports on the impact of the product for different operating conditions and several types of raw materials. Ecolabelling can be further developed by incorporating a scoring system for the impact caused by the product or process, using a standardised impact methodology.}, }
@article {pmid33286107, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, Y and Feng, Y and Zhang, F and Yang, F and Wang, L}, title = {Assessing and Predicting the Water Resources Vulnerability under Various Climate-Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, China.}, journal = {Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {33286107}, issn = {1099-4300}, support = {71403122//National Natural Foundation for young scholar/ ; BK20140980//Natural Foundation of Jiangsu Province for young scholar/ ; 14YJC630018//Humanities and Social Science Foundation of Chinese Ministry of Education for young scholar/ ; }, abstract = {The Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin plays an important strategic role in China's economic development, but severe water resources problems restrict the development of the three basins. Most of the existing research is focused on the trends of single hydrological and meteorological indicators. However, there is a lack of research on the cause analysis and scenario prediction of water resources vulnerability (WRV) in the three basins, which is the very important foundation for the management of water resources. First of all, based on the analysis of the causes of water resources vulnerability, this article set up the evaluation index system of water resource vulnerability from three aspects: water quantity, water quality and disaster. Then, we use the Improved Blind Deletion Rough Set (IBDRS) method to reduce the dimension of the index system, and we reduce the original 24 indexes to 12 evaluation indexes. Third, by comparing the accuracy of random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) models, we use the RF model with high fitting accuracy as the evaluation and prediction model. Finally, we use 12 evaluation indexes and an RF model to analyze the trend and causes of water resources vulnerability in three basins during 2000-2015, and further predict the scenarios in 2020 and 2030. The results show that the vulnerability level of water resources in the three basins has been improved during 2000-2015, and the three river basins should follow the development of scenario 1 to ensure the safety of water resources. The research proved that the combination of IBDRS and an RF model is a very effective method to evaluate and forecast the vulnerability of water resources in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin.}, }
@article {pmid33284705, year = {2020}, author = {Ebi, KL and Hess, JJ}, title = {Health Risks Due To Climate Change: Inequity In Causes And Consequences.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {39}, number = {12}, pages = {2056-2062}, doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2020.01125}, pmid = {33284705}, issn = {1544-5208}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change has altered global to local weather patterns and increased sea levels, and it will continue to do so. Average temperatures, precipitation amounts, and other variables such as humidity levels are all rising. In addition, weather variability is increasing, causing, for example, a greater number of heat waves, many of which are more intense and last longer, and more floods and droughts. These changes are collectively increasing the number of injuries, illnesses, and deaths from a wide range of climate-sensitive health outcomes. Future health risks will be determined not just by the hazards created by a changing climate but also by the sensitivity of individuals and communities exposed to these hazards and the capacity of health systems to prepare for and effectively manage the attendant risks. These risks include deaths and injuries from extreme events (for example, heat waves, storms, and floods), infectious diseases (including food-, water-, and vectorborne illnesses), and food and water insecurity. These risks are unevenly distributed and both create new inequities and exacerbate those that already exist. Most of these risks are projected to increase with each additional unit of warming. Using an equity lens to move beyond incremental to transformational resilience would reduce vulnerability and improve sustainability for all, but substantial additional funding is required for proactive and effective actions by the health system.}, }
@article {pmid33284704, year = {2020}, author = {Ebi, KL and Åström, C and Boyer, CJ and Harrington, LJ and Hess, JJ and Honda, Y and Kazura, E and Stuart-Smith, RF and Otto, FEL}, title = {Using Detection And Attribution To Quantify How Climate Change Is Affecting Health.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {39}, number = {12}, pages = {2168-2174}, doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2020.01004}, pmid = {33284704}, issn = {1544-5208}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Europe ; Humans ; Japan ; Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {The question of whether, how, and to what extent climate change is affecting health is central to many climate and health studies. We describe a set of formal methods, termed detection and attribution, used by climatologists to determine whether a climate trend or extreme event has changed and to estimate the extent to which climate change influenced that change. We discuss events where changing weather patterns were attributed to climate change and extend these analyses to include health impacts from heat waves in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and Japan, and we show how such impact attribution could be applied to melting ice roads in the Arctic. Documenting the causal chain from emissions of greenhouse gases to observed human health outcomes is important input into risk assessments that prioritize health system preparedness and response interventions and into financial investments and communication about potential risk to policy makers and to the public.}, }
@article {pmid33284701, year = {2020}, author = {Schramm, PJ and Al Janabi, AL and Campbell, LW and Donatuto, JL and Gaughen, SC}, title = {How Indigenous Communities Are Adapting To Climate Change: Insights From The Climate-Ready Tribes Initiative.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {39}, number = {12}, pages = {2153-2159}, pmid = {33284701}, issn = {1544-5208}, support = {CC999999/ImCDC/Intramural CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. ; *Climate Change ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Indians, North American ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change directly threatens human health, with substantial impacts on Indigenous peoples, who are uniquely vulnerable as climate-related events affect their practices, lifeways, self-determination, and physical and cultural health. At the same time, Indigenous communities are leading the way in innovative health-related climate change adaptation work, using traditional knowledges and novel approaches. In 2016 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Indian Health Board created the Climate-Ready Tribes Initiative to support these efforts. The initiative has funded tribes, shared information nationally, and supported a learning cohort, resulting in pioneering work to protect health from climate hazards. We describe how two tribes-the Pala Band of Mission Indians and the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community-implemented their Climate-Ready Tribes Initiative projects, and we provide recommendations for making climate and health policy more effective for tribes. Lessons learned from the Climate-Ready Tribes Initiative can inform climate and health policy and practice nationwide.}, }
@article {pmid33284700, year = {2020}, author = {Limaye, VS and Max, W and Constible, J and Knowlton, K}, title = {Estimating The Costs Of Inaction And The Economic Benefits Of Addressing The Health Harms Of Climate Change.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {39}, number = {12}, pages = {2098-2104}, doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2020.01109}, pmid = {33284700}, issn = {1544-5208}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Humans ; }, abstract = {National and international assessments have drawn attention to the substantial economic risks of climate change. The costs of climate-sensitive health outcomes responsive to meteorological or seasonal patterns are among the least studied of those risks. In this article we describe how cost valuation analyses that relate climate-sensitive health outcomes to damages in economic terms can illuminate the costs of inaction on the climate crisis and the economic savings of addressing this problem. We identify major challenges to expanding the application of climate-health valuation research and suggest solutions to overcome these obstacles to better characterize the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes and health disparities. The projected health and economic harms of climate-sensitive risks could be enormous if climate change continues to accelerate and communities are not prepared to reduce or prevent their impact. Expanded valuation of climate-sensitive health outcomes can inform policies that slow climate change and promote stronger investments in health-protective climate change adaptation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid33284699, year = {2020}, author = {Torbay, R}, title = {Climate Change Is Our Reality; Now Is The Time To Solve It.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {39}, number = {12}, pages = {2216}, doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2020.01903}, pmid = {33284699}, issn = {1544-5208}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33284698, year = {2020}, author = {Marill, MC}, title = {Pressured By Students, Medical Schools Grapple With Climate Change.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {39}, number = {12}, pages = {2050-2055}, doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2020.01948}, pmid = {33284698}, issn = {1544-5208}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Florida ; Humans ; Schools ; Schools, Medical ; *Students, Medical ; }, abstract = {In Miami, Florida, aspiring clinicians apply lessons learned while reaching out to the region's most vulnerable communities.}, }
@article {pmid33284696, year = {2020}, author = {}, title = {Climate Change And Health: Recently Funded Projects.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {39}, number = {12}, pages = {2209-2210}, doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2020.02046}, pmid = {33284696}, issn = {1544-5208}, }
@article {pmid33281250, year = {2020}, author = {Nash, N and Whitmarsh, L and Capstick, S and Gouveia, V and de Carvalho Rodrigues Araújo, R and Dos Santos, M and Palakatsela, R and Liu, Y and Harder, MK and Wang, X}, title = {Local climate change cultures: climate-relevant discursive practices in three emerging economies.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {163}, number = {1}, pages = {63-82}, pmid = {33281250}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {In recent decades, greater acknowledgement has been given to climate change as a cultural phenomenon. This paper takes a cultural lens to the topic of climate change, in which climate-relevant understandings are grounded in wider cultural, political and material contexts. We approach climate-relevant accounts at the level of the everyday, understood as a theoretically problematic and politically contested space This is in contrast to simply being the backdrop to mundane, repetitive actions contributing to environmental degradation and the site of mitigative actions. Taking discourse as a form of practice in which fragments of cultural knowledge are drawn on to construct our environmental problems, we investigate citizens' accounts of climate-relevant issues in three culturally diverse emerging economies: Brazil, South Africa and China. These settings are important because greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are predicted to significantly increase in these countries in the future. We conducted semi-structured interviews with a range of citizens in each country using a narrative approach to contextualise climate-relevant issues as part of people's lifestyle narratives. Participants overwhelmingly framed their accounts in the context of locally-salient issues, and few accounts explicitly referred to the phenomenon of climate change. Instead, elements of climate changes were conflated with other environmental issues and related to a wide range of cultural assumptions that influenced understandings and implied particular ways of responding to environmental problems. We conclude that climate change scholars should address locally relevant understandings and develop dialogues that can wider meanings that construct climate-relevant issues in vernacular ways at the local level.}, }
@article {pmid33280889, year = {2021}, author = {Nicholas, PK and Breakey, S and McKinnon, S and Eddy, EZ and Fanuele, J and Starodub, R}, title = {A CLIMATE: A Tool for Assessment of Climate-Change-Related Health Consequences in the Emergency Department.}, journal = {Journal of emergency nursing}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {532-542.e1}, doi = {10.1016/j.jen.2020.10.002}, pmid = {33280889}, issn = {1527-2966}, mesh = {*Civil Defense ; Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Emergency Service, Hospital ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an urgent public health problem that has looming implications and associated deleterious health consequences. The intersection of climate change and health has broad implications for health professionals in a variety of settings but especially for ED settings. Climate change is already affecting human health and health systems-which includes impacts on ED care. Disaster response and emergency preparedness are critically important public health interventions in our climate-changing world, and the contributions of emergency nurses are essential. Disaster preparedness, environmental emergency response, and health emergency management are important elements of emergency nursing and are explicated in Sheehy's Emergency Nursing Principles and Practices, 7th Edition. The purpose of this article is to present an overview of a clinical tool and mnemonic, A CLIMATE, developed by the authors with application to a case review. It is imperative that the nursing profession-particularly emergency clinicians-address the intersection of climate and health to engage in the assessment, intervention, management, evaluation, education, and referral of those who present to emergency departments with potential climate-related health impacts.}, }
@article {pmid33280878, year = {2021}, author = {Cui, F and Wang, B and Zhang, Q and Tang, H and De Maeyer, P and Hamdi, R and Dai, L}, title = {Climate change versus land-use change-What affects the ecosystem services more in the forest-steppe ecotone?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {759}, number = {}, pages = {143525}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143525}, pmid = {33280878}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Ecosystem services (ESs), which play an important role in the balance of the natural ecosystem and social-economic development, are suffering from degradation caused by human activities and climate change. However, the manner in which the ESs respond to the land use/cover changes (LUCCs) and the climatic factors respectively remain elusive, especially in the forest-steppe ecotone, which is highly sensitive to climate change and anthroponotic activities. Based on the remote sensing data and in situ meteorological data, we comprehensively modeled and compared 4 key ESs changes caused by 3 LUCC types, land-use change fraction, and climate changes through two simple comparative experiments. Our results showed that: the Grain for the Green Project improved the mean soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and water yield but reduced the sand fixation. The cropland expansion had a positive influence on the water yield and sand fixation, but it induced a decline in soil conservation and carbon sequestration. The urbanization very likely increased the water yield and decreased soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and sand fixation. The unequal change fractions of the same land-use conversion may affect the ESs differently. The ESs changes have different responses to climate change in different landscapes due to the ecological process. The water yield could be well explained by the temperature, precipitation, radiation, and wind speed. Climate change had a stronger effect on the water yield and carbon sequestration than the land use/cover changes but sand fixation and soil conservation were more likely to be affected by LUCCs. The impact of three types of land-use changes and climate change on the ecosystem services should be considered when formulating land-use policies. This paper might aid the decision-makers in achieving ESs sustainable management and develop land-use strategies in the forest-steppe ecotone.}, }
@article {pmid33280131, year = {2021}, author = {Tedla, B and Dang, QL and Inoue, S}, title = {Longer photoperiods negate the CO2 stimulation of photosynthesis in Betula papyrifera Marsh: Implications to climate change-induced migration.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {172}, number = {1}, pages = {106-115}, doi = {10.1111/ppl.13298}, pmid = {33280131}, issn = {1399-3054}, support = {203198-2013-RGPIN//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //Lakehead University/ ; //NSERC/ ; }, mesh = {*Betula ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; Photoperiod ; Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {In response to global warming, trees are expected to shift their distribution ranges to higher latitudes. The range shift will expose them to novel environmental conditions, such as new photoperiod regimes. These factors can interact with rising atmospheric CO2 ([CO2 ]) to affect trees' physiology and growth. This study simulated future environmental conditions to investigate photosynthetic responses to changes in photoperiod regimes (seed origin [48°N], 52, 55, and 58°N) and [CO2 ] (ambient 400 vs. elevated 1000 μmol mol[-1]) in white birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.) seedlings. Our results show that elevated [CO2 ] stimulated leaf photosynthesis (Pn) at the two lower latitudes (48 and 52°N). However, this stimulation by elevated [CO2 ] was lost in the two higher latitudes (55 and 58°N). Elevated [CO2 ] led to the downregulation of maximum Rubisco activity (Vcmax) for the two higher latitudes, and maximum electron transport rate (Jmax) and triose phosphate utilization (TPU) at 58°N, while it enhanced Jmax and TPU for the two lower latitudes. Increased instantaneous water-use efficiency (IWUE) for the two lower latitudes was primarily attributed to the CO2 stimulation of Pn while the higher IWUE under the photoperiod regimes of 55 and 58°N latitudes was explained by reduced water loss. Photoperiod effects varied with [CO2 ]: Pn increased at the photoperiod regimes of 55 and 58°N in ambient [CO2 ] while it tended to decline under these photoperiods in elevated [CO2 ]. Our study suggests that the photosynthesis of white birch will likely respond negatively to northward migration or seed transfer in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33278369, year = {2020}, author = {Blakstad, MM and Smith, ER}, title = {Climate change worsens global inequity in maternal nutrition.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {12}, pages = {e547-e548}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30246-1}, pmid = {33278369}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Air Pollution ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology ; Female ; Food Insecurity ; *Healthcare Disparities ; Humans ; Malnutrition/epidemiology ; *Maternal Nutritional Physiological Phenomena ; Pregnancy ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid33278353, year = {2021}, author = {Watts, N and Amann, M and Arnell, N and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Beagley, J and Belesova, K and Boykoff, M and Byass, P and Cai, W and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Capstick, S and Chambers, J and Coleman, S and Dalin, C and Daly, M and Dasandi, N and Dasgupta, S and Davies, M and Di Napoli, C and Dominguez-Salas, P and Drummond, P and Dubrow, R and Ebi, KL and Eckelman, M and Ekins, P and Escobar, LE and Georgeson, L and Golder, S and Grace, D and Graham, H and Haggar, P and Hamilton, I and Hartinger, S and Hess, J and Hsu, SC and Hughes, N and Jankin Mikhaylov, S and Jimenez, MP and Kelman, I and Kennard, H and Kiesewetter, G and Kinney, PL and Kjellstrom, T and Kniveton, D and Lampard, P and Lemke, B and Liu, Y and Liu, Z and Lott, M and Lowe, R and Martinez-Urtaza, J and Maslin, M and McAllister, L and McGushin, A and McMichael, C and Milner, J and Moradi-Lakeh, M and Morrissey, K and Munzert, S and Murray, KA and Neville, T and Nilsson, M and Sewe, MO and Oreszczyn, T and Otto, M and Owfi, F and Pearman, O and Pencheon, D and Quinn, R and Rabbaniha, M and Robinson, E and Rocklöv, J and Romanello, M and Semenza, JC and Sherman, J and Shi, L and Springmann, M and Tabatabaei, M and Taylor, J and Triñanes, J and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Vu, B and Wilkinson, P and Winning, M and Gong, P and Montgomery, H and Costello, A}, title = {The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {397}, number = {10269}, pages = {129-170}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32290-X}, pmid = {33278353}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {1K99AG066949-01/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; 209387/Z/17/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 205212/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 209734/Z/17/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; MR/R015600/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/trends ; *Extreme Weather ; *Global Health ; Health Policy ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {For the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.}, }
@article {pmid33278345, year = {2021}, author = {Cai, W and Zhang, C and Suen, HP and Ai, S and Bai, Y and Bao, J and Chen, B and Cheng, L and Cui, X and Dai, H and Di, Q and Dong, W and Dou, D and Fan, W and Fan, X and Gao, T and Geng, Y and Guan, D and Guo, Y and Hu, Y and Hua, J and Huang, C and Huang, H and Huang, J and Jiang, T and Jiao, K and Kiesewetter, G and Klimont, Z and Lampard, P and Li, C and Li, Q and Li, R and Li, T and Lin, B and Lin, H and Liu, H and Liu, Q and Liu, X and Liu, Y and Liu, Z and Liu, Z and Liu, Z and Lou, S and Lu, C and Luo, Y and Ma, W and McGushin, A and Niu, Y and Ren, C and Ren, Z and Ruan, Z and Schöpp, W and Su, J and Tu, Y and Wang, J and Wang, Q and Wang, Y and Wang, Y and Watts, N and Xiao, C and Xie, Y and Xiong, H and Xu, M and Xu, B and Xu, L and Yang, J and Yang, L and Yu, L and Yue, Y and Zhang, S and Zhang, Z and Zhao, J and Zhao, L and Zhao, M and Zhao, Z and Zhou, J and Gong, P}, title = {The 2020 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Public health}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {e64-e81}, pmid = {33278345}, issn = {2468-2667}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33277535, year = {2020}, author = {Čejka, T and Trnka, M and Krusic, PJ and Stobbe, U and Oliach, D and Václavík, T and Tegel, W and Büntgen, U}, title = {Predicted climate change will increase the truffle cultivation potential in central Europe.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {21281}, pmid = {33277535}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change affects the distribution of many species, including Burgundy and Périgord truffles in central and southern Europe, respectively. The cultivation potential of these high-prized cash crops under future warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Here we perform a literature review to define the ecological requirements for the growth of both truffle species. This information is used to develop niche models, and to estimate their cultivation potential in the Czech Republic under current (2020) and future (2050) climate conditions. The Burgundy truffle is already highly suitable for cultivation on ~ 14% of agricultural land in the Czech Republic (8486 km[2]), whereas only ~ 8% of the warmest part of southern Moravia are currently characterised by a low suitability for Périgord truffles (6418 km[2]). Though rising temperatures under RCP8.5 will reduce the highly suitable cultivation areas by 7%, the 250 km[2] (3%) expansion under low-emission scenarios will stimulate Burgundy truffles to benefit from future warming. Doubling the moderate and expanding the highly suitable land by 352 km[2] in 2050, the overall cultivation potential for Périgord truffles will rise substantially. Our findings suggest that Burgundy and Périgord truffles could become important high-value crops for many regions in central Europe with alkaline soils. Although associated with uncertainty, long-term investments in truffle cultivation could generate a wide range of ecological and economic benefits.}, }
@article {pmid33271139, year = {2021}, author = {Piotrowska-Weryszko, K and Weryszko-Chmielewska, E and Sulborska, A and Konarska, A and Dmitruk, M and Kaszewski, BM}, title = {Amaranthaceae pollen grains as indicator of climate change in Lublin (Poland).}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {193}, number = {}, pages = {110542}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.110542}, pmid = {33271139}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Allergens ; *Amaranthaceae ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Poland ; Pollen ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Previous studies have demonstrated that plants are a very good indicator of global environmental variations. The responses of many plant species to climate change are confirmed by aerobiological research. This paper presents an analysis of many parameters of pollen seasons in the Amaranthaceae family based on measurements of pollen concentrations in atmospheric air. Pollen samples were collected with the volumetric method at a sampling site in Lublin (Poland) in 2001-2019. The obtained data were verified using statistical analyses. Moreover, the presence of pollenkitt on the pollen grain surface was examined in fresh anthers using scanning electron and light microscopes, since there are some difficulties in identification of Amaranthaceae pollen grains deposited on microscopic slides in aerobiological analysis. The pollen season in Amaranthaceae began on average on June 23 and ended on October 5, i.e. it lasted 105 days. The peak value and annual pollen sum were characterized by the highest variability in the study years in comparison with other season characteristics. The annual pollen sum was in the range from 183 to 725. Maximum concentrations were most often recorded in the second half of August, which is associated with the greatest risk of development of pollen allergy symptoms in sensitive subjects during this period. The results obtained in the 19-year study revealed that the pollen seasons began 14 days earlier. Similarly, the end of the season was accelerated by 24 days. The response of these plants to climate change also include the reduced pollen production by representatives of this family, which was manifested by a decrease in the annual sum of daily airborne pollen concentrations, on average by 35%, and a reduction in the maximum pollen concentration, on average by more than 60%. We found that temperature in May and June had an effect on pollen release, and relative air humidity in May influenced pollen concentrations. We noted significant similarities in the pollen release rate during the last 8 years of the study. The scanning electron microscopy examinations showed that the pollen grain surface in the representative of this family was covered completely or partially with pollenkitt. Hence, the apertures characteristic for pollen in this family were poorly visible. The presence of pollenkitt on the surface of these polyaperturate pollen grains may play an important role in preventing water loss during pollen migration in the air. Our research has demonstrated the response of plants flowering in summer to climate change. The results not only have practical importance for public health in the aspect of allergy risk but can also help to assess environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid33269393, year = {2020}, author = {Yan Yam, EL}, title = {Climate change and the origin of SARS-CoV-2.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {33269393}, issn = {1708-8305}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *COVID-19/epidemiology/virology ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; *Population Dynamics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; *Travel ; *Travel Medicine/methods/trends ; }, abstract = {The origin of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the coronavirus that is still ravaging across the world almost a year after the first reported case, has been told in various ways—from the wildlife trade at the Wuhan wet market to the covert operations in laboratories. How does climate change fit in the narratives?}, }
@article {pmid33265971, year = {2020}, author = {Sorgho, R and Quiñonez, CAM and Louis, VR and Winkler, V and Dambach, P and Sauerborn, R and Horstick, O}, title = {Climate Change Policies in 16 West African Countries: A Systematic Review of Adaptation with a Focus on Agriculture, Food Security, and Nutrition.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {33265971}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Africa ; Africa, Western ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Food Security ; Food Supply ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change strongly impacts the agricultural sector in West Africa, threatening food security and nutrition, particularly for populations with the least adaptive capacity. Little is known about national climate change policies in the region. This systematic review identifies and analyses climate change policy documents in all 16 West African countries: (1) What are the existing climate change adaptation policies publicly available? (2) Which topics are addressed? (3) How are agriculture and food security framed and addressed? Following PRISMA guidelines, PubMed and Google scholar as key databases were searched with an extensive grey literature search. Keywords for searches were combinations of "Africa", "Climate Change", and "National Policy/Plan/Strategy/Guideline". Fifteen countries have at least one national policy document on climate change in the frame of our study. Nineteen policy documents covered seven key sectors (energy, agriculture, water resources, health, forestry, infrastructure, and education), and eight thematic areas (community resilience, disaster risk management, institutional development, industry development, research and development, policy making, economic investment, and partnerships/collaboration). At the intersection of these sectors/areas, effects of changing climate on countries/populations were evaluated and described. Climate change adaptation strategies emerged including development of local risk/disaster plans, micro-financing and insurance schemes (public or private), green energy, and development of community groups/farmers organizations. No clear trend emerged when analysing the adaptation options, however, climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector was almost always included. Analysing agriculture, nutrition, and food security, seven agricultural challenges were identified: The small scale of West African farming, information gaps, missing infrastructure, poor financing, weak farmer/community organizations, a shifting agricultural calendar, and deteriorating environmental ecology. They reflect barriers to adaptation especially for small-scale subsistence farmers with increased climate change vulnerabilities. The study has shown that most West African countries have climate change policies. Nevertheless, key questions remain unanswered, and demand for further research, e.g., on evaluating the implementation in the respective countries, persists.}, }
@article {pmid33264812, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, Y and Beggs, PJ and McGushin, A and Bambrick, H and Trueck, S and Hanigan, IC and Morgan, GG and Berry, HL and Linnenluecke, MK and Johnston, FH and Capon, AG and Watts, N}, title = {The 2020 special report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: lessons learnt from Australia's "Black Summer".}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {213}, number = {11}, pages = {490-492.e10}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.50869}, pmid = {33264812}, issn = {1326-5377}, support = {//Emory University/International ; //University College London/International ; //Macquarie University/International ; }, mesh = {Australia ; *COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Particulate Matter ; *Public Health ; SARS-CoV-2 ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change was established in 2017, and produced its first Australian national assessment in 2018 and its first annual update in 2019. It examines indicators across five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In the wake of the unprecedented and catastrophic 2019-20 Australian bushfire season, in this special report we present the 2020 update, with a focus on the relationship between health, climate change and bushfires, highlighting indicators that explore these linkages. In an environment of continuing increases in summer maximum temperatures and heatwave intensity, substantial increases in both fire risk and population exposure to bushfires are having an impact on Australia's health and economy. As a result of the "Black Summer" bushfires, the monthly airborne particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) concentrations in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory in December 2019 were the highest of any month in any state or territory over the period 2000-2019 at 26.0 μg/m[3] and 71.6 μg/m[3] respectively, and insured economic losses were $2.2 billion. We also found growing awareness of and engagement with the links between health and climate change, with a 50% increase in scientific publications and a doubling of newspaper articles on the topic in Australia in 2019 compared with 2018. However, despite clear and present need, Australia still lacks a nationwide adaptation plan for health. As Australia recovers from the compounded effects of the bushfires and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the health profession has a pivotal role to play. It is uniquely suited to integrate the response to these short term threats with the longer term public health implications of climate change, and to argue for the economic recovery from COVID-19 to align with and strengthen Australia's commitments under the Paris Agreement.}, }
@article {pmid33263753, year = {2021}, author = {Aracena, S and Barboza, M and Zamora, V and Salaverry, O and Montag, D}, title = {Health system adaptation to climate change: a Peruvian case study.}, journal = {Health policy and planning}, volume = {36}, number = {1}, pages = {45-83}, doi = {10.1093/heapol/czaa072}, pmid = {33263753}, issn = {1460-2237}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Government Programs ; Humans ; Peru ; Policy Making ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Despite mitigation attempts, the trajectory of climate change remains on an accelerated path, with devastating health impacts. As a response to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change call for National Adaptation Plans, Peru has developed a national and decentralized regional adaptation plans. The purpose of this article is to understand the role and priority status of health within the adaptation planning and process. Peru was used as a case study to analyse the policy process in the creation of adaptation plans, encompassing the need to address climate change impacts on health with a particular focus on marginalized people. An actor, content and context policy analyses were conducted to analyse 17 out of 25 regional adaptation plans, which are available. The national adaptation plans (2002, 2015) do not include health as a priority or health adaptation strategies. In a decentralized health care system, regional plans demonstrate an increased improvement of complexity, systematization and structure over time (2009-17). In general, health has not been identified as a priority but as another area of impact. There is no cohesiveness between plans in format, content, planning and execution and only a limited consideration for marginalized populations. In conclusion, the regional departments of Peru stand on unequal footing regarding adapting the health sector to climate change. Findings in the strategies call into question how mitigation and adaption to climate change may be achieved. The lack of local research on health impacts due to climate change and a particular focus on marginalized people creates a policy vacuum. The Peruvian case study resembles global challenges to put health in the centre of national and regional adaptation plans. In-depth cross-country analysis is still missing but urgently needed to learn from other experiences.}, }
@article {pmid33262808, year = {2020}, author = {O'Neill, BC and Carter, TR and Ebi, K and Harrison, PA and Kemp-Benedict, E and Kok, K and Kriegler, E and Preston, BL and Riahi, K and Sillmann, J and van Ruijven, BJ and van Vuuren, D and Carlisle, D and Conde, C and Fuglestvedt, J and Green, C and Hasegawa, T and Leininger, J and Monteith, S and Pichs-Madruga, R}, title = {Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {1074-1084}, pmid = {33262808}, issn = {1758-678X}, abstract = {Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.}, }
@article {pmid33262324, year = {2020}, author = {Austin, KG and Baker, JS and Sohngen, BL and Wade, CM and Daigneault, A and Ohrel, SB and Ragnauth, S and Bean, A}, title = {The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world's forests to mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {5946}, pmid = {33262324}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across 16 regions for carbon price scenarios of $5-$100/tCO2. We project 0.6-6.0 GtCO2 yr[-1] in global mitigation by 2055 at costs of 2-393 billion USD yr[-1], with avoided tropical deforestation comprising 30-54% of total mitigation. Higher prices incentivize larger mitigation proportions via rotation and forest management activities in temperate and boreal biomes. Forest area increases 415-875 Mha relative to the baseline by 2055 at prices $35-$100/tCO2, with intensive plantations comprising <7% of this increase. Mitigation costs borne by private land managers comprise less than one-quarter of total costs. For forests to contribute ~10% of mitigation needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, carbon prices will need to reach $281/tCO2 in 2055.}, }
@article {pmid33261873, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, L and Gałka, M and Kumar, A and Liu, M and Knorr, KH and Yu, ZG}, title = {Plant succession and geochemical indices in immature peatlands in the Changbai Mountains, northeastern region of China: Implications for climate change and peatland development.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {773}, number = {}, pages = {143776}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143776}, pmid = {33261873}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Plants ; Soil ; *Sphagnopsida ; }, abstract = {Peatlands cover a small portion of the Earth's land surface but hold ~30% of soil carbon (C) globally. However, few studies have focused on the early stage of peatland development, which is a key stage in the initial C sink function of peatlands. An immature peatland is vulnerable to changes in environmental conditions, e.g., temperature and water conditions, as the peat accumulation process can be easily interrupted by such changes. It is important to understand how immature peatlands develop, what conditions are beneficial to this process, and the present status of these important peatlands. Plant macrofossil analysis and geochemical characteristics of peat were used to determine the plant succession and the degree of decomposition at two peatlands developing in the Changbai Mountain region of northeastern China. The results show that during the entire plant community succession, plants in the two studied peatlands are mainly characterized by sedges (Cyperaceae) and mosses (mainly Sphagnum). Plant macrofossil analysis reveals a wetter trend in the Yuan Lake (YL) peatland in the most upper part of peat layer, which provides favorable conditions for peat accumulation and peatland development. The C/N ratios of core Chi Lake (CL) show a steady peat decomposition and accumulation process in the CL peatland. Additionally, there was a clear impact of presence of Sphagnum on the variations in the C/N ratio. In the YL peatland, macro-charcoal pieces indicated that fire events during dry hydrological conditions had great effects on biogeochemical processes within the peatland, affecting peat decomposition and the succession of the local plant community. An increase in major and trace elements suggests only weak disturbance due to the considerable distance to human settlements. This study determines the characteristics of pristine mountainous peatlands and highlights the importance of understanding the regular plant community in the early stage of peatland formation, as well as its potential effects on C sinks.}, }
@article {pmid33258529, year = {2021}, author = {Sherratt, S}, title = {What are the implications of climate change for speech and language therapists?.}, journal = {International journal of language &amp; communication disorders}, volume = {56}, number = {1}, pages = {215-227}, doi = {10.1111/1460-6984.12587}, pmid = {33258529}, issn = {1460-6984}, mesh = {Aged ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Language Therapy ; *Speech ; Speech Therapy ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The emerging global issue of climate change has large-scale effects on health and well-being, including communication disorders. The broad range of the speech and language therapy profession's scope of practice incorporates prevention, advocacy and equality in service delivery. These act as a springboard for involvement in climate change and health.<br><br>AIMS: This is an appeal to speech and language therapists (SLTs) to focus and take action on this issue and its considerable effects on communication and swallowing disorders.<br><br>METHODS &amp; PROCEDURES: This article discusses the importance of taking a public health position on prevention and equality of services to manage environmental determinants of communication and swallowing disorders. It also describes the extent to which climate change affects these disorders and exacerbates the inequality of healthcare services in low- and middle-income countries.<br><br>MAIN CONTRIBUTION: Five strategies are provided for action on fulfilling therapists' roles in reducing the incidence, development and exacerbation of climate-related communication and swallowing disorders, as well as the role of SLTs in acting as advocates. The case is made for expanding the scope of services to focus on prevention and service equality so as to best meet the needs of the wider community.<br><br>Despite other challenges currently facing SLTs, climate change and its increasing effects on communication disorders and dysphagia is difficult to ignore. SLTs owe it to their clients, the wider community, low- and middle-income countries, the economy, and the future to take action. What this paper adds What is already known on the subject Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that climate change is extremely likely to be due to human activities. The global effects will be higher temperatures, changes in precipitation, more droughts and heatwaves, stronger and more intense hurricanes, and a rising sea level which directly threaten the health of entire populations. Other health professions are beginning to take climate change into account in training and practice. What this paper adds to existing knowledge Many disorders of communication and swallowing are caused or exacerbated by the effects of climate change. Increasing temperatures, extremes of precipitation, population displacement and air pollution contribute to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events, respiratory disease, malnutrition, premature birth, air- and water-borne diseases, and mental illness. These may affect the communication and swallowing abilities across the lifespan, but particularly those of children and older adults. What are the potential or actual clinical implications of this work? SLTs' roles in prevention, advocacy and education act as a starting point for involvement in climate change and health. Three practical strategies for action include educating SLTs and other health professionals on climate change and its effects on communication and swallowing, promoting awareness with clients and their families, and gathering and disseminating reliable data.}, }
@article {pmid33257439, year = {2021}, author = {da Silva, CRB and Beaman, JE and Dorey, JB and Barker, SJ and Congedi, NC and Elmer, MC and Galvin, S and Tuiwawa, M and Stevens, MI and Alton, LA and Schwarz, MP and Kellermann, V}, title = {Climate change and invasive species: a physiological performance comparison of invasive and endemic bees in Fiji.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {224}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.230326}, pmid = {33257439}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Fiji ; *Introduced Species ; Islands ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change and invasive species are two of the greatest threats to biodiversity, affecting the survival, fitness and distribution of many species around the globe. Invasive species are often expected to have broad thermal tolerance, be highly plastic, or have high adaptive potential when faced with novel environments. Tropical island ectotherms are expected to be vulnerable to climate change as they often have narrow thermal tolerance and limited plasticity. In Fiji, only one species of endemic bee, Homalictus fijiensis, is commonly found in the lowland regions, but two invasive bee species, Braunsapis puangensis and Ceratina dentipes, have recently been introduced into Fiji. These introduced species pollinate invasive plants and might compete with H. fijiensis and other native pollinators for resources. To test whether certain performance traits promote invasiveness of some species, and to determine which species are the most vulnerable to climate change, we compared the thermal tolerance, desiccation resistance, metabolic rate and seasonal performance adjustments of endemic and invasive bees in Fiji. The two invasive species tended to be more resistant to thermal and desiccation stress than H. fijiensis, while H. fijiensis had greater capacity to adjust their CTmax with season, and H. fijiensis females tended to have higher metabolic rates than B. puangensis females. These findings provide mixed support for current hypotheses for the functional basis of the success of invasive species; however, we expect the invasive bees in Fiji to be more resilient to climate change because of their increased thermal tolerance and desiccation resistance.}, }
@article {pmid33256425, year = {2020}, author = {Boyd, CP and Parr, H}, title = {Climate change and rural mental health: a social geographic perspective.}, journal = {Rural and remote health}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {6337}, doi = {10.22605/RRH6337}, pmid = {33256425}, issn = {1445-6354}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Rural Health ; Rural Population ; }, abstract = {CONTEXT: The objective of this commentary is to suggest ways in which current and future research on climate change and rural mental health can be enhanced by social geographic perspectives. As the effects of climate change escalate, the mental health of rural and remote communities will be placed at increasing risk. As such, it is imperative that academics and practitioners recognise the value of multidisciplinary approaches to tackling this issue.<br><br>ISSUES: As social geographers, the authors of this commentary outline concepts from their field that they find helpful in understanding the relationship between people and places, and how these relations give rise to emotions that are responsive to environmental conditions.<br><br>LESSONS LEARNED: Ultimately, the authors would like to prompt a re-thinking of 'social' as a category, which is usually confined to interpersonal interactions between humans and suggest a broadening of the concept to include both human and non-human worlds.}, }
@article {pmid33254882, year = {2021}, author = {Vogiatzis, K and Kassomenos, P and Gerolymatou, G and Valamvanos, P and Anamaterou, E}, title = {Climate Change Adaptation Studies as a tool to ensure airport's sustainability: The case of Athens International Airport (A.I.A.).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {754}, number = {}, pages = {142153}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142153}, pmid = {33254882}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {A.I.A (Athens International Airport) is the first major transportation infrastructure in Greece. Environmental protection is a priority and AIA is committed to protect the environment and preventing or lessening negative impacts, through a comprehensive Environmental Policy and Procedures. The scope of this article is to perform a comprehensive risk assessment of climate-related risks to the direct and indirect operations of Athens International Airport and to its assets. To achieve that, we proceeded to collect and analyse the historical climate data as well as the future climate scenarios for the region in which the airport operates. Ιn addition, we prepared a questionnaire on the climatic conditions at the airport and the protection measures already in place. The questionnaire was shared with employees in key-positions, as well as to third parties. A round of interviews was held, with important conclusions to be drawn. Finally, we come up with a list of risks assessments, related to climate change, for the airport and some actions to be implemented in the next period.}, }
@article {pmid33254201, year = {2020}, author = {Duns, G}, title = {Editorial: Responding to health emergencies - COVID-19, climate change and the importance of primary healthcare.}, journal = {Australian journal of general practice}, volume = {49}, number = {12}, pages = {773}, doi = {10.31128/AJGP-12-20-1234e}, pmid = {33254201}, issn = {2208-7958}, mesh = {COVID-19/psychology/*therapy ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Primary Health Care/*methods/standards/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid33251630, year = {2020}, author = {Moshelion, M}, title = {The dichotomy of yield and drought resistance: Translation challenges from basic research to crop adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {21}, number = {12}, pages = {e51598}, pmid = {33251630}, issn = {1469-3178}, support = {2436/18//Israel Science Foundation (ISF)/ ; 876/16//Israel Science Foundation (ISF)/ ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics ; *Droughts ; Humans ; Research ; }, abstract = {Global climate change and the increasing human population require crop varieties with higher yield and draught resistance. But meeting both goals is not an easy task for breeders and plant science.}, }
@article {pmid33250605, year = {2020}, author = {Danilov-Danil'yan, VI and Kattsov, VM and Porfiriev, BN}, title = {The Problem of Climate Change: The Field of Convergence and Interaction between Natural Sciences and the Sociohumanities.}, journal = {Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences}, volume = {90}, number = {5}, pages = {577-587}, pmid = {33250605}, issn = {1555-6492}, abstract = {The relationship and interaction between natural science and sociohumanities knowledge and methods of studying global and regional climate changes and their socioeconomic consequences are analyzed. It is argued that the methodological and instrumental basis of the interaction above involve risk theory and modeling. The key results include a comprehensive assessment and forecast of climatic risks of socioeconomic development, which make up the basis of the development of effective strategies for sustainable long-term development. Ephasized is the counterproductiveness of a straightforward approach to the climate change problem which implies as the main goal of sustainable development the radical reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The necessity and effectiveness of a systematic approach that provides for the priority of institutional, structural, and technological transformations in society and the economy are emphasized. An important result of these transformations should involve the reduction of anthropogenic impact on the environment, including its climate formation factors, and adaptation to its climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33250260, year = {2021}, author = {Yang, L and Feng, Q and Adamowski, JF and Alizadeh, MR and Yin, Z and Wen, X and Zhu, M}, title = {The role of climate change and vegetation greening on the variation of terrestrial evapotranspiration in northwest China's Qilian Mountains.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {759}, number = {}, pages = {143532}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143532}, pmid = {33250260}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Water ; }, abstract = {Terrestrial evapotranspiration (ETa) reflects the complex interactions of climate, vegetation, soil and terrain and is a critical component in water and energy cycles. However, the manner in which climate change and vegetation greening influence ETa remains poorly understood, especially in alpine regions. Drawing on the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) ETa data, the interannual variability of ETa and its ties to precipitation (P), potential evaporation (ETp) and vegetation (NDVI) were analysed. The Budyko framework was implemented over the period of 1982 to 2015 to quantify the response of ETa to climate change's direct (P and ETp) and indirect (NDVI) impacts. The ETa, P, ETp and NDVI all showed significant increasing trends from 1981 to 2015 with rates of 1.52 mm yr[-1], 3.18 mm yr[-1], 0.89 mm yr[-1] and 4.0 × 10[-4] yr[-1], respectively. At the regional level, the positive contribution of increases in P and NDVI offset the negative contribution of ETp to the change in ETa (∆ETa). The positive ∆ETa between 1982 and 2001 was strongly linked with the concomitant increase in NDVI. Increases in vegetation contributing to a positive ∆ETa differed among landscape types: for shrub, meadow and steppe they occurred during both periods, for alpine vegetation between 1982 and 2001, and for desert between 2002 and 2015. Climate change directly contributed to a rise in ETa, with P as the dominant factor affecting forested lands during both periods, and alpine vegetation between 2002 and 2015. Moreover, ETp was a dominant factor for the desert between 1982 and 2001, where the variation of P was not significant. The contributions of factors having an impact on ∆ETa are modulated by both the sensitivity of impact factors acting on ETa as well as the magnitudes of factor changes. The greening of vegetation can influence ETa by increasing vegetation transpiration and rainfall interception in forest, brush and meadow landscapes. These findings can help in developing a better understanding of the interaction of ecosystems and hydrology in alpine regions.}, }
@article {pmid33248784, year = {2021}, author = {Fang, Y and Zhang, X and Wei, H and Wang, D and Chen, R and Wang, L and Gu, W}, title = {Predicting the invasive trend of exotic plants in China based on the ensemble model under climate change: A case for three invasive plants of Asteraceae.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {756}, number = {}, pages = {143841}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143841}, pmid = {33248784}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Asteraceae ; China ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Introduced Species ; *Mikania ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Ageratina adenophora, Eupatorium odoratum, and Mikania micrantha are three highly destructive invasive plants of Compositae in China. Through the screening of SDMs, random forest (RF), gradient boosting model (GBM), artificial neural network (ANN), and flexible discriminant analysis (FDA) with TSS greater than 0.8 are selected to construct a high-precision ensemble model (EM) as the prediction model. We use specimen sites and environmental variables containing climate, soil, terrain, and human activities to simulate and predict the invasion trend of three invasive weeds in China in current, the 2050s, and the 2070s. Results indicate that the highly invasive risk area of three exotic plants is mostly distributed along the river in the provinces south of 30° N. In the future scenario, the three exotic plants obviously invade northwards Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Jiangxi and Fujian. Climate is the most important variable that affects the spread of three kinds of alien plant invasions. Temperature and precipitation variables have a similar effect on A. adenophora and E. odoratum, while M. micrantha is more sensitive to temperature. It has been reported that Ipomoea batatas and Vitex negundo can prevent the invasion of three invasive plants. Hence, we also simulate the suitable planting areas for I. batatas and V. negundo. The results show that I. batatas and V. negundo are suitable to be planted in the areas where the three weeds show invasion tendency. In the paper, predicting invasion trends of exotic plants and simulating the planting suitability of crops that can block invasion, to provide a practical significance reference and suggestion for the management, prevention, and control of the invasion of exotic plants in China.}, }
@article {pmid33248345, year = {2021}, author = {Mezzelani, M and Nardi, A and Bernardini, I and Milan, M and Peruzza, L and d'Errico, G and Fattorini, D and Gorbi, S and Patarnello, T and Regoli, F}, title = {Environmental pharmaceuticals and climate change: The case study of carbamazepine in M. galloprovincialis under ocean acidification scenario.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {146}, number = {}, pages = {106269}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2020.106269}, pmid = {33248345}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomarkers/metabolism ; Carbamazepine/toxicity ; Climate Change ; Homeostasis ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Mytilus/metabolism ; Oxidative Stress ; *Pharmaceutical Preparations ; Seawater ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis/toxicity ; }, abstract = {Contaminants of emerging concern and ocean changes are key environmental stressors for marine species with possibly synergistic, but still unexplored, deleterious effects. In the present study the influence of a simulated ocean acidification scenario (pH = 7.6) was investigated on metabolism and sub-lethal effects of carbamazepine, CBZ (1 µg/L), chosen as one of the most widely diffused pharmaceuticals in marine organisms. A multidisciplinary approach was applied on mussels, M. galloprovincialis, integrating measurement of drug bioaccumulation with changes in the whole transcriptome, responsiveness of various biochemical and cellular biomarkers including immunological parameters, lipid and oxidative metabolism, onset of genotoxic effects. Chemical analyses revealed a limited influence of hypercapnia on accumulation and excretion of CBZ, while a complex network of biological responses was observed in gene expression profile and functional changes at cellular level. The modulation of gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) pathway suggested similarities with the Mechanism of Action known for vertebrates: immune responses, cellular homeostasis and oxidative system represented the processes targeted by combined stressors. The overall elaboration of results through a quantitative Weight of Evidence model, revealed clearly increased cellular hazard due to interactions of CBZ with acidification compared to single stressors.}, }
@article {pmid33247971, year = {2021}, author = {Nelson, JT and Motamayor, JC and Cornejo, OE}, title = {Environment and pathogens shape local and regional adaptations to climate change in the chocolate tree, Theobroma cacao L.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {656-669}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15754}, pmid = {33247971}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Cacao/genetics ; *Chocolate ; Climate Change ; Selection, Genetic ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Predicting the potential fate of a species in the face of climate change requires knowing the distribution of molecular adaptations across the geographic range of the species. In this work, we analysed 79 genomes of Theobroma cacao, an Amazonian tree known for the fruit from which chocolate is produced, to evaluate how local and regional molecular signatures of adaptation are distributed across the natural range of the species. We implemented novel techniques that incorporate summary statistics from multiple selection scans to infer selective sweeps. The majority of the molecular adaptations in the genome are not shared among populations. We show that ~71.5% of genes under selection also show significant associations with changes in environmental variables. Our results support the interpretation that these genes contribute to local adaptation of the populations in response to abiotic factors. We also found strong patterns of molecular adaptation in a diverse array of disease resistance genes (6.5% of selective sweeps), suggesting that differential adaptation to pathogens also contributes significantly to local adaptations. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that local selective pressures are more important than regional selective pressures in explaining adaptation across the range of a species.}, }
@article {pmid33247621, year = {2021}, author = {Jones, JH and Ready, E and Pisor, AC}, title = {Want climate-change adaptation? Evolutionary theory can help.}, journal = {American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {e23539}, doi = {10.1002/ajhb.23539}, pmid = {33247621}, issn = {1520-6300}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Cultural Evolution ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The idea of adaptation, in which an organism or population becomes better suited to its environment, is used in a variety of disciplines. Originating in evolutionary biology, adaptation has been a central theme in biological anthropology and human ecology. More recently, the study of adaptation in the context of climate change has become an important topic of research in the social sciences. While there are clearly commonalities in the different uses of the concept of adaptation in these fields, there are also substantial differences. We describe these differences and suggest that the study of climate-change adaptation could benefit from a re-integration with biological and evolutionary conceptions of human adaptation. This integration would allow us to employ the substantial theoretical tools of evolutionary biology and anthropology to understand what promotes or impedes adaptation. The evolutionary perspective on adaptation focuses on diversity because diversity drives adaptive evolution. Population structures are also critical in facilitating or preventing adaptation to local environmental conditions. This suggests that climate-change adaptation should focus on the sources of innovation and social structures that nurture innovations and allow them to spread. Truly innovative ideas are likely to arise on the periphery of cohesive social groups and spread inward. The evolutionary perspective also suggests that we pay careful attention to correlated traits, which can distort adaptive trajectories, as well as to the importance of risk management in adaptations to variable or uncertain environments. Finally, we suggest that climate-change adaptation could benefit from a broader study of how local groups adapt to their dynamic environments, a process we call "autochthonous adaptation."}, }
@article {pmid33247144, year = {2020}, author = {Hung, LS and Bayrak, MM}, title = {Comparing the effects of climate change labelling on reactions of the Taiwanese public.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {6052}, pmid = {33247144}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Scientists and the media are increasingly using the terms 'climate emergency' or 'climate crisis' to urge timely responses from the public and private sectors to combat the irreversible consequences of climate change. However, whether the latest trend in climate change labelling can result in stronger climate change risk perceptions in the public is unclear. Here we used survey data collected from 1,892 individuals across Taiwan in 2019 to compare the public's reaction to a series of questions regarding climate change beliefs, communication, and behavioural intentions under two labels: 'climate change' and 'climate crisis.' The respondents had very similar responses to the questions using the two labels. However, we observed labelling effects for specific subgroups, with some questions using the climate crisis label actually leading to backlash effects compared with the response when using the climate change label. Our results suggest that even though the two labels provoke similar reactions from the general public, on a subgroup level, some backlash effects may become apparent. For this reason, the label 'climate crisis' should be strategically chosen.}, }
@article {pmid33246955, year = {2020}, author = {Cooke, I and Ying, H and Forêt, S and Bongaerts, P and Strugnell, JM and Simakov, O and Zhang, J and Field, MA and Rodriguez-Lanetty, M and Bell, SC and Bourne, DG and van Oppen, MJ and Ragan, MA and Miller, DJ}, title = {Genomic signatures in the coral holobiont reveal host adaptations driven by Holocene climate change and reef specific symbionts.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {6}, number = {48}, pages = {}, pmid = {33246955}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Genetic signatures caused by demographic and adaptive processes during past climatic shifts can inform predictions of species' responses to anthropogenic climate change. To identify these signatures in Acropora tenuis, a reef-building coral threatened by global warming, we first assembled the genome from long reads and then used shallow whole-genome resequencing of 150 colonies from the central inshore Great Barrier Reef to inform population genomic analyses. We identify population structure in the host that reflects a Pleistocene split, whereas photosymbiont differences between reefs most likely reflect contemporary (Holocene) conditions. Signatures of selection in the host were associated with genes linked to diverse processes including osmotic regulation, skeletal development, and the establishment and maintenance of symbiosis. Our results suggest that adaptation to post-glacial climate change in A. tenuis has involved selection on many genes, while differences in symbiont specificity between reefs appear to be unrelated to host population structure.}, }
@article {pmid33245883, year = {2021}, author = {Rahman, MS and Overgaard, HJ and Pientong, C and Mayxay, M and Ekalaksananan, T and Aromseree, S and Phanthanawiboon, S and Zafar, S and Shipin, O and Paul, RE and Phommachanh, S and Pongvongsa, T and Vannavong, N and Haque, U}, title = {Knowledge, attitudes, and practices on climate change and dengue in Lao People's Democratic Republic and Thailand.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {193}, number = {}, pages = {110509}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.110509}, pmid = {33245883}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Laos/epidemiology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Thailand/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is linked with climate change in tropical and sub-tropical countries including the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos) and Thailand. Knowledge about these issues and preventive measures can affect the incidence and outbreak risk of dengue. Therefore, the present study was conducted to determine the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) among urban and rural communities and government officials about climate change and dengue in Laos and Thailand.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional KAP survey about climate change and dengue were conducted in 360 households in Laos (180 urban and 180 rural), 359 households in Thailand (179 urban and 180 rural), and 20 government officials (10 in each country) using structured questionnaires. Data analysis was undertaken using descriptive methods, principal component analysis (PCA), Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test (as appropriate), and logistic regression.<br><br>RESULTS: Significant differences among the selected communities in both countries were found in terms of household participant's age, level of education, socioeconomic status, attitude level of climate change and KAP level of dengue (P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05; 95% CI). Overall, participants' KAP about climate change and dengue were low except the attitude level for dengue in both countries. The level of awareness among government officials regarding the climatic relationship with dengue was also low. In Lao households, participants' knowledge about climate change and dengue was significantly associated with the level of education and socioeconomic status (SES) (P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.01). Their attitudes towards climate change and dengue were associated with educational level and internet use (P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05). Householders' climate change related practices were associated with SES (P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.01) and dengue related practices were associated with educational level, SES, previous dengue experience and internet use (P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.01). In Thailand, participants' knowledge about climate change was associated with the level of education and SES (P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.01). Their attitudes towards climate change were associated with residence status (urban/rural) and internet use (P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05); climate change related practices were associated with educational level and SES (P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05). Dengue related knowledge of participants was associated with SES and previous dengue experience (P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05); participants' dengue related attitudes and practices were associated with educational level (P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.01).<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings call for urgently needed integrated awareness programs to increase KAP levels regarding climate change adaptation, mitigation and dengue prevention to improve the health and welfare of people in these two countries, and similar dengue-endemic countries.}, }
@article {pmid33245599, year = {2020}, author = {Grünig, M and Calanca, P and Mazzi, D and Pellissier, L}, title = {Inflection point in climatic suitability of insect pest species in Europe suggests non-linear responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {6338-6349}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15313}, pmid = {33245599}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Bundesamt f&#xfc;r Landwirtschaft/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Europe ; Insecta ; }, abstract = {Climate change and globalization affect the suitable conditions for agricultural crops and insect pests, threatening future food security. It remains unknown whether shifts in species' climatic suitability will be linear or rather non-linear, with crop exposure to pests suddenly increasing when a critical temperature threshold is crossed. Moreover, uncertainty of forecasts can arise because of the modelling approach based either on species distribution data or on physiological measurements. Here, we compared the predictions of two modelling approaches (physiological models and species distribution models) for forecasting the potential distribution of agricultural insect pests in Europe. Despite conceptual differences, we found good agreement overall between the two approaches. We further identified a potential regime change in pest pressure along a temperature gradient. With both modelling approaches, we found an inflection point in the number of pest species with suitable climatic conditions around a minimum temperature of the coldest month of -3°C. Our results could help decision-makers anticipate the onset of rising pest pressure and provide support for intensifying surveillance measures, particularly in regions where temperatures are already beyond the inflection point.}, }
@article {pmid33243665, year = {2021}, author = {Macias-Verde, D and Lara, PC and Burgos-Burgos, J}, title = {Same pollution sources for climate change might be hyperactivating the NLRP3 inflammasome and exacerbating neuroinflammation and SARS mortality.}, journal = {Medical hypotheses}, volume = {146}, number = {}, pages = {110396}, pmid = {33243665}, issn = {1532-2777}, mesh = {Aerosols ; Air Microbiology ; Air Pollution, Radioactive/*adverse effects ; COVID-19/*etiology/mortality ; Causality ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Inflammasomes/metabolism/radiation effects ; Inflammation/*etiology ; Models, Biological ; NLR Family, Pyrin Domain-Containing 3 Protein/*metabolism ; Nervous System Diseases/etiology ; Pandemics ; Particle Size ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; Pneumonia/etiology ; SARS-CoV-2/*pathogenicity ; }, abstract = {We have reviewed a considerable amount of recent scientific papers relating inflammation caused by air pollution with chronic and severe medical conditions. Furthermore, there are evidences relating organ inflammation caused by not only outdoor long-term but also short-term inhaled radioisotopes contained in high polluted air or in household natural radioactive background aerosols, in addition to SARS-COV-2 attached to bioaerosols, which are related with a worst evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome patients. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) production induced by the interaction with environmental ionizing radiation contained in pollution is pointed out as a critical mechanism that predispose mainly to elder population, but not excluding young subjects, presenting previous chronic conditions of lung inflammation or neuroinflammation, which can lead to the most serious consequences.}, }
@article {pmid33242067, year = {2020}, author = {Barber, J}, title = {Solar-driven water-splitting provides a solution to the energy problem underpinning climate change.}, journal = {Biochemical Society transactions}, volume = {48}, number = {6}, pages = {2865-2874}, pmid = {33242067}, issn = {1470-8752}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry ; Catalysis ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Hydrogen/chemistry ; Oxidation-Reduction ; Oxygen/*chemistry ; Photosynthesis ; Photosystem II Protein Complex/metabolism ; Plant Leaves ; Plants/metabolism ; *Solar Energy ; Sunlight ; Water/chemistry ; }, abstract = {The emergence of the oxygen-evolving photosystem two complex over 2.6 billion years ago represented the 'big bang of evolution' on planet Earth. It allowed phototrophic organisms to use sun light as an energy source to extract electrons and protons from water, and concomitantly release oxygen. Oxygenic photosynthesis not only created an aerobic atmosphere but also removed CO2 to produce the organic molecules that make up the current global biomass and fossil fuel. In addition, it paved the way for animal life. Today extensive burning of fossil fuels is reversing the results of photosynthesis through billions of years, rapidly releasing CO2 back into the atmosphere and consequently increasing the temperature of the planet. There is an urgent need to develop new sustainable energy sources, but the choice is not obvious. My approach to this problem has been to unravel the blueprint of photosystem II (PSII) and to develop an 'Artificial Leaf' technology. A significant step with respect to that mission was achieved at Imperial College when we could conclude from X-ray diffraction of PSII crystals, that the water-splitting catalytic centre consists of a unique Mn3Ca2+O4 cubane structure with a fourth dangler Mn oxo-bonded to the cubane. Here I use this and more recent structures to discuss the mechanism of water splitting and O-O bond formation. Furthermore, I will address how this information can be used to design novel water-splitting catalysts and highlight recent progress in this direction. My conviction is 'if plants can do it, we can do it - after all it is all about chemistry'.}, }
@article {pmid33241889, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, N and Zhang, H and Schiller, G and Feng, H and Gao, X and Li, E and Li, X}, title = {Unraveling the Global Warming Mitigation Potential from Recycling Subway-Related Excavated Soil and Rock in China Via Life Cycle Assessment.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {639-650}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4376}, pmid = {33241889}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; Cities ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Life Cycle Stages ; *Railroads ; Recycling ; *Refuse Disposal ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Many cities across China are investing in subway projects, resulting in much subway construction activity, which has experienced a surge over the past decade. The construction activities inevitably cause a dramatic quantity of subway-related excavated soil and rock (ESR). How to manage it with minimal environmental impact on our urban ecosystem remains an open question. The present study evaluates global warming potential (GWP, expressed by CO2 eq) from different ESR recycling and landfilling scenarios via a life cycle assessment (LCA) model based on primary field investigation combined with the LCA software database. The study results illustrate that recycling ESR can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In comparison with traditional construction materials, the scenarios found that a cumulative amount of 1.1 to 1.5 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 eq emissions could have been mitigated by using ESR generated between 2010 and 2018 to produce baking-free bricks and recycled baked brick. Using cost-benefit analysis, potential economic benefits from recycled sand and baking-free bricks are found to reach US$9 million annually. The findings of this study could provide better recycling options for ESR-related stakeholders. It is important to mention that there still is much work to be done before this recycling work can be popularized in China. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:639-650. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology &amp; Chemistry (SETAC).}, }
@article {pmid33239537, year = {2021}, author = {Goshua, A and Gomez, J and Erny, B and Burke, M and Luby, S and Sokolow, S and LaBeaud, AD and Auerbach, P and Gisondi, MA and Nadeau, K}, title = {Addressing Climate Change and Its Effects on Human Health: A Call to Action for Medical Schools.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {96}, number = {3}, pages = {324-328}, doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000003861}, pmid = {33239537}, issn = {1938-808X}, mesh = {Awareness ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Curriculum/standards ; Global Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Physician's Role ; Public Health/education/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Schools, Medical/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/standards ; Students, Medical/statistics &amp; numerical data ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Human health is increasingly threatened by rapid and widespread changes in the environment and climate, including rising temperatures, air and water pollution, disease vector migration, floods, and droughts. In the United States, many medical schools, the American Medical Association, and the National Academy of Sciences have published calls for physicians and physicians-in-training to develop a basic knowledge of the science of climate change and an awareness of the associated health risks. The authors-all medical students and educators-argue for the expeditious redesign of medical school curricula to teach students to recognize, diagnose, and treat the many health conditions exacerbated by climate change as well as understand public health issues. In this Invited Commentary, the authors briefly review the health impacts of climate change, examine current climate change course offerings and proposals, and describe the rationale for promptly and comprehensively including climate science education in medical school curricula. Efforts in training physicians now will benefit those physicians' communities whose health will be impacted by a period of remarkable climate change. The bottom line is that the health effects of climate reality cannot be ignored, and people everywhere must adapt as quickly as possible.}, }
@article {pmid33235927, year = {2020}, author = {Chowdhury, MA and Hasan, MK and Hasan, MR and Younos, TB}, title = {Corrigendum to "Climate change impacts and adaptations on health of Internally Displaced People (IDP): An exploratory study on coastal areas of Bangladesh" [Heliyon 6 (9) (September 2020) Article e05018]".}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {e05282}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05282}, pmid = {33235927}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05018.].}, }
@article {pmid33235673, year = {2020}, author = {Zilbermint, M}, title = {Diabetes and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of community hospital internal medicine perspectives}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {409-412}, pmid = {33235673}, issn = {2000-9666}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus, a looming crisis, is approaching worldwide epidemic proportions. In 2018, 34.2 million Americans, or 10.5% of the population had diabetes. Climate change, and in particular rising global temperatures, may exacerbate various health issues, including diabetes and ultimately lead to increased mortality.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To identify the impact of climate change on diabetes.<br><br>METHODS: A systematic literature review of Pubmed (MEDLINE database of references and abstracts on life sciences and biomedical topics from the USA National Library of Medicine at the National Institutes of Health) and Scopus (Elsevier's abstract and citation database) with the following terms: 'diabetes' [AND] 'climate change'.<br><br>RESULTS: The following risk factors for diabetes due to climate change were identified and discussed: extreme temperatures (heat), the risk of hospitalization, shortage of medical and food supplies and urbanization.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes and climate change are interconnected. Extreme weather events and rising temperatures may increase morbidity and mortality in patients living with diabetes, especially in those with cardiovascular complications. Failure to mitigate climate change and the diabetes epidemic threatens the lives of many people in the U.S. and beyond.}, }
@article {pmid33235254, year = {2020}, author = {Mbaabu, PR and Olago, D and Gichaba, M and Eckert, S and Eschen, R and Oriaso, S and Choge, SK and Linders, TEW and Schaffner, U}, title = {Restoration of degraded grasslands, but not invasion by Prosopis juliflora, avoids trade-offs between climate change mitigation and other ecosystem services.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {20391}, pmid = {33235254}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Grassland degradation and the concomitant loss of soil organic carbon is widespread in tropical arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Afforestation of degraded grassland, sometimes by using invasive alien trees, has been put forward as a legitimate climate change mitigation strategy. However, even in cases where tree encroachment of degraded grasslands leads to increased soil organic carbon, it may come at a high cost since the restoration of grassland-characteristic biodiversity and ecosystem services will be blocked. We assessed how invasion by Prosopis juliflora and restoration of degraded grasslands in a semi-arid region in Baringo, Kenya affected soil organic carbon, biodiversity and fodder availability. Thirty years of grassland restoration replenished soil organic carbon to 1 m depth at a rate of 1.4% per year and restored herbaceous biomass to levels of pristine grasslands, while plant biodiversity remained low. Invasion of degraded grasslands by P. juliflora increased soil organic carbon primarily in the upper 30 cm and suppressed herbaceous vegetation. We argue that, in contrast to encroachment by invasive alien trees, restoration of grasslands in tropical semi-arid regions can both serve as a measure for climate change mitigation and help restore key ecosystem services important for pastoralists and agro-pastoralist communities.}, }
@article {pmid33235236, year = {2020}, author = {Kouba, M and Bartoš, L and Bartošová, J and Hongisto, K and Korpimäki, E}, title = {Interactive influences of fluctuations of main food resources and climate change on long-term population decline of Tengmalm's owls in the boreal forest.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {20429}, pmid = {33235236}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animal Feed ; Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; Breeding ; Climate Change ; Finland ; Population Density ; Predatory Behavior/*physiology ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; Strigiformes/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Recent wildlife population declines are usually attributed to multiple sources such as global climate change and habitat loss and degradation inducing decreased food supply. However, interactive effects of fluctuations in abundance of main foods and weather conditions on population densities and reproductive success have been studied rarely. We analysed long-term (1973-2018) data on Tengmalm's owl (Aegolius funereus) and the influence of prey abundance and weather on breeding densities and reproductive success in western Finland. We found that fledgling production per breeding attempt declined and laying date of the owl population delayed during the period between 1973 and 2018. The breeding density of the owl population decreased with increasing temperature in winter (October-March), fledgling production increased with increasing temperature and precipitation in spring (April-June), whereas the initiation of egg-laying was delayed with increasing depth of snow cover in late winter (January-March). The decreasing trend of fledgling production, which was mainly due to starvation of offspring, was an important factor contributing to the long-term decline of the Tengmalm's owl study population. Milder and more humid spring and early summer temperatures due to global warming were not able to compensate for lowered offspring production of owls. The main reason for low productivity is probably loss and degradation of mature and old-growth forests due to clear-felling which results in loss of coverage of prime habitat for main (bank voles) and alternative foods (small birds) of owls inducing lack of food, and refuges against predators of Tengmalm's owls. This interpretation was also supported by the delayed start of egg-laying during the study period although ambient temperatures increased prior to and during the egg-laying period.}, }
@article {pmid33233176, year = {2020}, author = {Gomez-Zavaglia, A and Mejuto, JC and Simal-Gandara, J}, title = {Corrigendum to "Mitigation of emerging implications of climate change on food production systems" [Food Res. Int. 134 (2020) 109256].}, journal = {Food research international (Ottawa, Ont.)}, volume = {137}, number = {}, pages = {109554}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodres.2020.109554}, pmid = {33233176}, issn = {1873-7145}, }
@article {pmid33232354, year = {2020}, author = {Rogers, JB and Stein, ED and Beck, MW and Ambrose, RF}, title = {The impact of climate change induced alterations of streamflow and stream temperature on the distribution of riparian species.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {e0242682}, pmid = {33232354}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; *Plant Development ; *Plants ; *Rivers ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Distributions of riparian species will likely shift due to climate change induced alterations in temperature and rainfall patterns, which alter stream habitat. Spatial forecasting of suitable habitat in projected climatic conditions will inform management interventions that support wildlife. Challenges in developing forecasts include the need to consider the large number of riparian species that might respond differently to changing conditions and the need to evaluate the many different characteristics of streamflow and stream temperature that drive species-specific habitat suitability. In particular, in dynamic environments like streams, the short-term temporal resolution of species occurrence and streamflow need to be considered to identify the types of conditions that support various species. To address these challenges, we cluster species based on habitat characteristics to select habitat representatives and we evaluate regional changes in habitat suitability using short-term, temporally explicit metrics that describe the streamflow and stream temperature regime. We use stream-specific environmental predictors rather than climatic variables. Unlike other studies, the stream-specific environmental predictors are generated from the time that species were observed in a particular reach, in addition to long term trends, to evaluate habitat preferences. With species occurrence data from local monitoring surveys and streamflow and stream temperature modeled from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections, we predict change in habitat suitability at the end-of-century. The relative importance of hydrology and stream temperature varied by cluster. High altitudinal, cold water species' distributions contracted, while lower elevation, warm water species distributions expanded. Modeling with short-term temporally explicit environmental metrics did produce different end-of-century projections than using long-term averages for some of the representative species. These findings can help wildlife managers prioritize conservation efforts, manage streamflow, initiate monitoring of species in vulnerable clusters, and address stressors, such as passage barriers, in areas projected to be suitable in future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid33232329, year = {2020}, author = {Thomas, MB}, title = {Epidemics on the move: Climate change and infectious disease.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {e3001013}, pmid = {33232329}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Ecosystem ; *Epidemics ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33232314, year = {2020}, author = {Burdon, JJ and Zhan, J}, title = {Climate change and disease in plant communities.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {e3000949}, pmid = {33232314}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Forestry ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Plant Diseases/*etiology ; *Plants ; Snow ; }, abstract = {Climate change is triggering similar effects on the incidence and severity of disease for crops in agriculture and wild plants in natural communities. The complexity of natural ecosystems, however, generates a complex array of interactions between wild plants and pathogens in marked contrast to those generated in the structural and species simplicity of most agricultural crops. Understanding the different impacts of climate change on agricultural and natural ecosystems requires accounting for the specific interactions between an individual pathogen and its host(s) and their subsequent effects on the interplay between the host and other species in the community. Ultimately, progress will require looking past short-term fluctuations to multiyear trends to understand the nature and extent of plant and pathogen evolutionary adaptation and determine the fate of plants under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33232311, year = {2020}, author = {Byers, JE}, title = {Effects of climate change on parasites and disease in estuarine and nearshore environments.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {e3000743}, pmid = {33232311}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; Climate Change ; Disease/*etiology ; Ecosystem ; Estuaries/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Host-Parasite Interactions/physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; Parasites/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Information on parasites and disease in marine ecosystems lags behind terrestrial systems, increasing the challenge of predicting responses of marine host-parasite systems to climate change. However, here I examine several generalizable aspects and research priorities. First, I advocate that quantification and comparison of host and parasite thermal performance curves is a smart approach to improve predictions of temperature effects on disease. Marine invertebrate species are ectothermic and should be highly conducive to this approach given their generally short generation times. Second, in marine systems, shallow subtidal and intertidal areas will experience the biggest temperature swings and thus likely see the most changes to host-parasite dynamics. Third, for some responses like parasite intensity, as long as the lethal limit of the parasite is not crossed, on average, there may be a biological basis to expect temperature-dependent intensification of impacts on hosts. Fourth, because secondary mortality effects and indirect effects of parasites can be very important, we need to study temperature effects on host-parasite dynamics in a community context to truly know their bottom line effects. This includes examining climate-influenced effects of parasites on ecosystem engineers given their pivotal role in communities. Finally, other global change factors, especially hypoxia, salinity, and ocean acidity, covary with temperature change and need to be considered and evaluated when possible for their contributing effects on host-parasite systems. Climate change-disease interactions in nearshore marine environments are complex; however, generalities are possible and continued research, especially in the areas outlined here, will improve our understanding.}, }
@article {pmid33230887, year = {2021}, author = {Pisor, AC and Jones, JH}, title = {Human adaptation to climate change: An introduction to the special issue.}, journal = {American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {e23530}, doi = {10.1002/ajhb.23530}, pmid = {33230887}, issn = {1520-6300}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cultural Evolution ; Humans ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Despite our focus on adaptation and human responses to climate, evolutionary and biological anthropologists (EBAs) are largely absent from conversations about contemporary "climate-change adaptation," a term popular in other disciplines, the development world, and related policy decisions. EBAs are missing a big opportunity to contribute to impactful, time-sensitive applied work: we have extensive theoretical and empirical knowledge pertinent to conversations about climate-change adaptation and to helping support communities as they cope. This special issue takes a tour of EBA contributions to our understanding of climate-change adaptation, from data on past and contemporary human communities to theoretically informed predictions about how individuals and communities will respond to climate change now and in the future. First, however, we must establish what we mean by "climate change" and "adaptation," along with other terms commonly used by EBAs; review what EBAs know about adaptation and about human responses to climate change; and identify just a few topics EBAs study that are pertinent to ongoing conversations about climate-change adaptation. In this article, we do just that.<br><br>CONCLUSION: From our work on energy use to our work on demography, subsistence, social networks, and the salience of climate change to local communities, EBAs have an abundance of data and theoretical insights to help inform responses to contemporary climate change. We need to better reach the climate community and general public with our contributions.}, }
@article {pmid33230883, year = {2021}, author = {Reddin, CJ and Kocsis, &#xc1;T and Aberhan, M and Kiessling, W}, title = {Victims of ancient hyperthermal events herald the fates of marine clades and traits under global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {868-878}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15434}, pmid = {33230883}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {AB 109/11-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; KI 806/16-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; KO 5382/2-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; //Volkswagen Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; *Extinction, Biological ; Fossils ; Global Warming ; Invertebrates ; }, abstract = {Organismic groups vary non-randomly in their vulnerability to extinction. However, it is unclear whether the same groups are consistently vulnerable, regardless of the dominant extinction drivers, or whether certain drivers have their own distinctive and predictable victims. Given the challenges presented by anthropogenic global warming, we focus on changes in extinction selectivity trends during ancient hyperthermal events: geologically rapid episodes of global warming. Focusing on the fossil record of the last 300 million years, we identify clades and traits of marine ectotherms that were more prone to extinction under the onset of six hyperthermal events than during other times. Hyperthermals enhanced the vulnerability of marine fauna that host photosymbionts, particularly zooxanthellate corals, the reef environments they provide, and genera with actively burrowing or swimming adult life-stages. The extinction risk of larger sized fauna also increased relative to non-hyperthermal times, while genera with a poorly buffered internal physiology did not become more vulnerable on average during hyperthermals. Hyperthermal-vulnerable clades include rhynchonelliform brachiopods and bony fish, whereas resistant clades include cartilaginous fish, and ostreid and venerid bivalves. These extinction responses in the geological past mirror modern responses of these groups to warming, including range-shift magnitudes, population losses, and experimental performance under climate-related stressors. Accordingly, extinction mechanisms distinctive to rapid global warming may be indicated, including sensitivity to warming-induced seawater deoxygenation. In anticipation of modern warming-driven marine extinctions, the trends illustrated in the fossil record offer an expedient preview.}, }
@article {pmid33230837, year = {2020}, author = {Misiak, M and Goodall-Copestake, WP and Sparks, TH and Worland, MR and Boddy, L and Magan, N and Convey, P and Hopkins, DW and Newsham, KK}, title = {Inhibitory effects of climate change on the growth and extracellular enzyme activities of a widespread Antarctic soil fungus.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {5}, pages = {1111-1125}, pmid = {33230837}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NE/D00893X/1//Antarctic Funding Initiative/ ; NE/L002434/1//NERC/ ; }, abstract = {Temperatures approaching or exceeding 20°C have been measured during summer in polar regions at the surfaces of barren fellfield soils under cloudless skies around solar noon. However, despite the upper temperature limit for the growth of cold-adapted microbes-which are abundant in polar soils and have pivotal roles in nutrient cycling-typically being close to this temperature, previous studies have not addressed the consequences of climate change for the metabolism of these organisms in the natural environment. Here in a 5-year field experiment on Alexander Island in the southern maritime Antarctic, we show that the abundance of Pseudogymnoascus roseus, the most widespread decomposer fungus in maritime Antarctic fellfield soils, is reduced by 1-2 orders of magnitude when irrigated and nutrient-amended soils are warmed to >20°C during summer. Laboratory experiments under conditions mimicking those during midsummer in the natural environment indicated that the hyphal extension rates of P. roseus isolates and the activities of five extracellular enzymes are reduced by 54%-96% at high water availability after exposure to temperatures cycling daily from 2 to 21°C and 2 to 24°C, relative to temperatures cycling from 2 to 18°C. Given that the temperatures of surface soils at the study site already reach 19°C during midsummer, the observations reported here suggest that, at predicted rates of warming arising from moderate greenhouse gas emissions, inhibitory effects of climate change on the metabolism of P. roseus could manifest themselves within the next few decades. Furthermore, with peak temperatures at the surfaces of fellfield soils at other maritime Antarctic locations and in High Arctic and alpine regions already exceeding 20°C during summer, the observations suggest that climate warming has the potential to inhibit the growth of other cold-adapted microbes, with negative effects on soils as the Earth's climate continues to warm.}, }
@article {pmid33228877, year = {2021}, author = {Oh, JW}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Allergy in a Changing World.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {ix-x}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2020.10.001}, pmid = {33228877}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {Allergens ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid33228876, year = {2021}, author = {Choi, YJ and Lee, KS and Oh, JW}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Pollen Season and Allergic Sensitization to Pollens.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {97-109}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2020.09.004}, pmid = {33228876}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {Allergens ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; Pollen ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Pollens are a major cause of seasonal allergic diseases. Weather may alter the production of pollens. Increased atmospheric temperatures lead to earlier pollination of many plants and longer duration of pollination, resulting in extended pollen seasons, with early spring or late winter. Longer pollen seasons increase duration of exposure, resulting in more sensitization, and higher pollen concentrations may lead to more severe symptoms. Climate changes in contact to pollens may affect both allergic sensitization and symptom prevalence with severity. The future consequences of climate change, however, are speculative, because the influence on humans, is complex.}, }
@article {pmid33228875, year = {2021}, author = {Demain, JG}, title = {Insect Migration and Changes in Venom Allergy due to Climate Change.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {85-95}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2020.09.010}, pmid = {33228875}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {*Anaphylaxis ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hymenoptera ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; *Insect Bites and Stings ; Insecta ; }, abstract = {Insects are highly successful animals. They have limited ability to regulate their temperature and therefore will expand range in response to warming temperatures. Climate change and associated rising global temperature is impacting the range and distribution of stinging insects. There is evidence that many species are expanding range toward the poles, primarily in response to warming. With expanded distribution of stinging insects, increased interaction with humans is anticipated with consequently increased rates of sting-related reactions and need for intervention. This article focuses on evidence that insects are expanding their range in response to warming temperature, increasing likelihood of human interaction.}, }
@article {pmid33228873, year = {2021}, author = {Pawankar, R and Wang, JY}, title = {Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Biodiversity in Asia Pacific and Impact on Respiratory Allergies.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {63-71}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2020.09.008}, pmid = {33228873}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Asia/epidemiology ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Allergic diseases are increasing globally. Air pollution, climate change, and reduced biodiversity are major threats to human health with detrimental effects on chronic noncommunicable diseases. Outdoor and indoor air pollution and climate change are increasing. Asia has experienced rapid economic growth, a deteriorating environment, and an increase in allergic diseases to epidemic proportions. Air pollutant levels in Asian countries are substantially higher than in developed countries. Moreover, industrial, traffic-related, and household biomass combustion and indoor pollutants from chemicals and tobacco are major sources of air pollutants. We highlight the major components of pollutants and their impacts on respiratory allergies.}, }
@article {pmid33228872, year = {2021}, author = {Katelaris, CH}, title = {Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events in Australia: Impact on Allergic Diseases.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {53-62}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2020.09.003}, pmid = {33228872}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {Allergens ; Australia/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Extreme Weather ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Several climate change-related predictions and observations have been documented for the Australian continent. Extreme weather events such as cycles of severe drought and damaging flooding are occurring with greater frequency and have a severe impact on human health. Two specific aspects of climate change affecting allergic and other respiratory disorders are outlined: firstly, the consequences of extreme weather events and secondly, the change in distribution of airborne allergens that results from various climate change factors.}, }
@article {pmid33228871, year = {2021}, author = {Singh, AB and Mathur, C}, title = {Climate Change and Pollen Allergy in India and South Asia.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {33-52}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2020.09.007}, pmid = {33228871}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Asia/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; *Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {Increased levels of CO2 and various greenhouse gases cause global warming and, in combination with pollutants from fossil fuel combustion and vehicular and industrial emissions, have been driving increases in noncommunicable diseases across the globe, resulting a higher mortality and morbidity. Respiratory diseases and associated allergenic manifestations have increased worldwide, with rates higher in developing countries. Pollen allergy serves as a model for studying the relationship between air pollution and respiratory disorders. Climate changes affect the quality and amount of airborne allergenic pollens, and pollutants alter their allergenicity, resulting in greater health impacts, especially in sensitized individuals.}, }
@article {pmid33228868, year = {2021}, author = {Kishikawa, R and Koto, E}, title = {Effect of Climate Change on Allergenic Airborne Pollen in Japan.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {111-125}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2020.09.005}, pmid = {33228868}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {*Allergens ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Japan/epidemiology ; Pollen ; *Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/epidemiology/therapy ; }, abstract = {In Japan, the representative allergenic airborne pollen-related allergic diseases include Cupressaceae in early spring, the birch family and grass in spring and mugwort in autumn. As a result of a long- term survey the past 27 to 33 years, an increasing in the amount of conifer airborne pollen and an earlier start dispersal were observed, related climate change. In addition, an increase in the number of patients with Japanese cedar pollinosis and the severity has been observed. Provision of medical pollen information, medication and sublingual immunotherapy have all been enhanced. Recently, pollen-food allergic syndrome has become of increased interest.}, }
@article {pmid33228867, year = {2021}, author = {Davies, JM and Berman, D and Beggs, PJ and Ramón, GD and Peter, J and Katelaris, CH and Ziska, LH}, title = {Global Climate Change and Pollen Aeroallergens: A Southern Hemisphere Perspective.}, journal = {Immunology and allergy clinics of North America}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {1-16}, doi = {10.1016/j.iac.2020.09.002}, pmid = {33228867}, issn = {1557-8607}, mesh = {Allergens ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; Pollen ; }, abstract = {Climatic change will have an impact on production and release of pollen, with consequences for the duration and magnitude of aeroallergen seasonal exposure and allergic diseases. Evaluations of pollen aerobiology in the southern hemisphere have been limited by resourcing and the density of monitoring sites. This review emphasizes inconsistencies in pollen monitoring methods and metrics used globally. Research should consider unique southern hemisphere biodiversity, climate, plant distributions, standardization of pollen aerobiology, automation, and environmental integration. For both hemispheres, there is a clear need for better understanding of likely influences of climate change and comprehending their impact on pollen-related health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid33227618, year = {2021}, author = {Rugiu, L and de Wit, P and Kostian, I and Jormalainen, V}, title = {Climate change driven hyposalinity as a selective agent in the littoral mesoherbivore Idotea balthica.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {163}, number = {}, pages = {105216}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105216}, pmid = {33227618}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Baltic States ; *Climate Change ; Genomics ; *Salinity ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Climate change will include a decrease in seawater salinity in the Baltic Sea. We quantified the effects of the projected future desalination on survival of the early life stage of the littoral herbivore Idotea balthica. We collected egg-bearing Idotea from three range-margin Baltic Sea populations, we exposed half of each brood to either current (6‰) or future salinity (3.5‰). We genotyped a subsample of each brood to analyse patterns of allelic change and to identify genomic regions targeted by selection. The survival was overall reduced by hyposalinity and broods varied in response to hyposalinity implying genetic variation in tolerance, with a stronger decrease in genetic diversity in future salinity. Finally, we identified proteins with crucial roles in basic cellular functions. This study indicates that projected future northern Baltic Sea hyposalinity will not just hamper I. balthica survival, but its selective pressure may also affect genetic diversity and cell physiology.}, }
@article {pmid33223185, year = {2021}, author = {Park, HJ and Nam, BE and Moon, SY and Kim, SG and Joo, Y and Kim, JG}, title = {Reduced host plant growth and increased tyrosine-derived secondary metabolites under climate change and negative consequences on its specialist herbivore.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {759}, number = {}, pages = {143507}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143507}, pmid = {33223185}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Herbivory ; Plants ; Tyrosine ; }, abstract = {Compositive changes in climatic factors, e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2) and precipitation frequency and intensity, affect the strength of species interactions via responses in plants. Therefore, understanding the effects of climate change on plant-herbivore interactions is important to maintain biodiversity as about 70% of insects are herbivorous. However, the interactive effects of CO2 and precipitation on plants and consequences for herbivores are poorly understood. Here, we examined how elevated CO2 and increased watering frequency affect the growth and resistance responses of Aristolochia contorta and the growth performance of its specialist herbivore, Sericinus montela. Elevated CO2 suppressed growth with decreased photosynthesis ability, and increased resistance in plants. In contrast, increased watering frequency partly ameliorated the negative effects of high CO2. Growth performance of specialist herbivores decreased under elevated CO2 condition as a consequence of increased resistance in plants. Due to the significant effects of CO2, we suggest that both the quantity and the quality of host plants as a food would decline, and the growth performance of its specialist herbivore might be threatened as climate change progresses.}, }
@article {pmid33221941, year = {2021}, author = {Snowdon, RJ and Wittkop, B and Chen, TW and Stahl, A}, title = {Crop adaptation to climate change as a consequence of long-term breeding.}, journal = {TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik}, volume = {134}, number = {6}, pages = {1613-1623}, pmid = {33221941}, issn = {1432-2242}, support = {031A354E//Bundesministerium f&#xfc;r Bildung und Forschung/ ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*genetics/physiology ; *Droughts ; Genes, Plant ; Genetic Variation ; Multigene Family ; *Plant Breeding ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Major global crops in high-yielding, temperate cropping regions are facing increasing threats from the impact of climate change, particularly from drought and heat at critical developmental timepoints during the crop lifecycle. Research to address this concern is frequently focused on attempts to identify exotic genetic diversity showing pronounced stress tolerance or avoidance, to elucidate and introgress the responsible genetic factors or to discover underlying genes as a basis for targeted genetic modification. Although such approaches are occasionally successful in imparting a positive effect on performance in specific stress environments, for example through modulation of root depth, major-gene modifications of plant architecture or function tend to be highly context-dependent. In contrast, long-term genetic gain through conventional breeding has incrementally increased yields of modern crops through accumulation of beneficial, small-effect variants which also confer yield stability via stress adaptation. Here we reflect on retrospective breeding progress in major crops and the impact of long-term, conventional breeding on climate adaptation and yield stability under abiotic stress constraints. Looking forward, we outline how new approaches might complement conventional breeding to maintain and accelerate breeding progress, despite the challenges of climate change, as a prerequisite to sustainable future crop productivity.}, }
@article {pmid33219932, year = {2021}, author = {Ali, MF and Rose, S}, title = {Farmers' perception and adaptations to climate change: findings from three agro-ecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {12}, pages = {14844-14853}, pmid = {33219932}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Pakistan ; Perception ; }, abstract = {The main objective of this study was to capture farmers' perceptions and adaptations to climate change in agriculture sector. Along with this, it also identified farmers' adaptations to perceived climate change. Binary logit models were applied on data of 386 farmers, collected from three different agro-ecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, to present a comprehensive analysis of different adaptation strategies missing in the existing literature. The coefficients of a binary logit model only explain the direction of change; therefore, to see the magnitude of change, marginal effects were also estimated. Findings revealed that farmers perceived climate change and opted different adaptation strategies. Results of binary logit models described age, education, farming experience, landholding, access to climate information, access to credit facilities, and access to extension services as important determinants of adaptation. This research also found lack of access to climate information, lack of irrigation resources, and knowledge about appropriate adaptations as key constraints in adaptation process. This situation can be improved by enhancing institutional support and capacity. It is suggested that improved agricultural education with better access to climate information and extension services affects the farmers' well-being directly and hence is good for the economy of Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid33219300, year = {2020}, author = {Marchowski, D and Ławicki, &#x141; and Fox, AD and Nielsen, RD and Petersen, IK and Hornman, M and Nilsson, L and Haas, F and Wahl, J and Kieckbusch, J and Nehls, HW and Calbrade, N and Hearn, R and Meissner, W and Fitzgerald, N and Luigujoe, L and Zenatello, M and Gaudard, C and Koschinski, S}, title = {Effectiveness of the European Natura 2000 network to sustain a specialist wintering waterbird population in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {20286}, pmid = {33219300}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Anseriformes/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Europe ; Geography ; Population Dynamics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Analysis of coordinated Greater Scaup (Aythya marila) count data from the last 30 years showed a 38.1% decrease in wintering numbers in North-West Europe, from 309,000 during 1988-1991 to c.192,300 individuals during 2015-2018. Annual trends in wintering numbers differed throughout the range. Numbers decreased in the UK, Ireland, and in the Netherlands, while numbers were stable in Denmark. Germany, Poland, Sweden, and Estonia showed increasing numbers, suggesting a shift in the distribution of the species within its wintering grounds towards the east and north. Higher temperatures in northern and eastern areas were correlated with the range shift of the wintering distribution. Deaths from bycatch drowning of Scaup in fishing gear have significantly decreased in recent decades in the Netherlands, where currently the greatest threat is considered the deterioration of food resources. The increasing concentration of wintering Scaup in coastal Poland and Germany (where lack of effective implementation of conservation measures fail to protect the species from the impacts of bycatch and declining food quality) pose major threats to the entire population.}, }
@article {pmid33218141, year = {2020}, author = {Palinkas, LA and O'Donnell, ML and Lau, W and Wong, M}, title = {Strategies for Delivering Mental Health Services in Response to Global Climate Change: A Narrative Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {33218141}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care/organization &amp; administration/standards/trends ; *Disasters ; Humans ; *Mental Health Services/organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {This narrative review examined strategies for preparedness and response to mental health impacts of three forms of climate change from a services perspective: (1) acute and extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, (2) sub-acute or long-term events such as droughts and heatwaves; and (3) the prospect of long-term and permanent changes, including higher temperatures, rising sea levels, and an uninhabitable physical environment. Strategies for acute events included development and implementation of programs and practices for monitoring and treating mental health problems and strengthening individual and community resilience, training of community health workers to deliver services, and conducting inventories of available resources and assessments of at-risk populations. Additional strategies for sub-acute changes included advocacy for mitigation policies and programs and adaptation of guidelines and interventions to address the secondary impacts of sub-acute events, such as threats to livelihood, health and well-being, population displacement, environmental degradation, and civil conflict. Strategies for long-lasting changes included the implementation of evidence-based risk communication interventions that address the existing and potential threat of climate change, promoting the mental health benefits of environmental conservation, and promoting psychological growth and resilience.}, }
@article {pmid33217354, year = {2020}, author = {Wright, RJ}, title = {Influences of climate change on childhood asthma and allergy risk.}, journal = {The Lancet. Child &amp; adolescent health}, volume = {4}, number = {12}, pages = {859-860}, doi = {10.1016/S2352-4642(20)30315-1}, pmid = {33217354}, issn = {2352-4650}, mesh = {Asthma/*etiology ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*etiology ; Risk Assessment ; }, }
@article {pmid33215276, year = {2021}, author = {Ha, TTV and Fan, H and Shuang, L}, title = {Climate change impact assessment on Northeast China's grain production.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {12}, pages = {14508-14520}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-11602-5}, pmid = {33215276}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {19JYB031//Provincial Philosophy and Social Science Research Project/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Edible Grain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The international community is paying more attention to climate change because a consensus has been reached that climate change has an adverse effect not only on the environment but also on agriculture. Therefore, in this study, present and future climate datasets (obtained from general circulation models) including atmospheric carbon concentration were used to assess the impact of climate change on grain production for an important base of China (Northeast). An empirical model has been developed using climate and other additional variables (effective irrigation area, fertilizer, and labor force) to assess the effect of climate change on grain production. The results revealed that maximum temperature is a key climate determinant in grain production of the study area. Atmospheric carbon concentration showed a significant impact on grain outputs in most of the cases. During the analysis, it was observed that precipitation displayed a declining trend while an effective irrigation area showed positive non-significant contribution to grain production. Analysis based on different representative concentration pathways exhibited that maximum temperature may contribute negatively to grain production in the future. Overall, the analysis showed that climate change has a significant contribution to grain production. In conclusion, the implications for future research and policymakers have been addressed. Particularly, the importance of considering regional differences in adaptation planning in agricultural regions was also considered.}, }
@article {pmid33214422, year = {2021}, author = {Ewbank, C and Stewart, B and Bruns, B and Deckelbaum, D and Gologorsky, R and Groen, R and Gupta, S and Hadley, M and Harris, MJ and Godfrey, R and Jackson, J and Leppäniemi, A and Malone, DL and Newton, C and Traynor, MD and Wong, EG and Kushner, AL}, title = {Introduction of the Surgical Providers Assessment and Response to Climate Change (SPARC2) Tool: One Small Step Toward Reducing the Carbon Footprint of Surgical Care.}, journal = {Annals of surgery}, volume = {273}, number = {4}, pages = {e135-e137}, pmid = {33214422}, issn = {1528-1140}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Environmental Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Surgical Procedures, Operative/*standards ; }, }
@article {pmid33212957, year = {2020}, author = {Ahmed, T and Zounemat-Kermani, M and Scholz, M}, title = {Climate Change, Water Quality and Water-Related Challenges: A Review with Focus on Pakistan.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {33212957}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Pakistan ; Prospective Studies ; Water ; *Water Quality ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate variability is heavily impacting human health all around the globe, in particular, on residents of developing countries. Impacts on surface water and groundwater resources and water-related illnesses are increasing, especially under changing climate scenarios such as diversity in rainfall patterns, increasing temperature, flash floods, severe droughts, heatwaves and heavy precipitation. Emerging water-related diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya are reappearing and impacting on the life of the deprived; as such, the provision of safe water and health care is in great demand in developing countries to combat the spread of infectious diseases. Government, academia and private water bodies are conducting water quality surveys and providing health care facilities, but there is still a need to improve the present strategies concerning water treatment and management, as well as governance. In this review paper, climate change pattern and risks associated with water-related diseases in developing countries, with particular focus on Pakistan, and novel methods for controlling both waterborne and water-related diseases are discussed. This study is important for public health care, particularly in developing countries, for policy makers, and researchers working in the area of climate change, water quality and risk assessment.}, }
@article {pmid33210253, year = {2021}, author = {Ankrah Twumasi, M and Jiang, Y}, title = {The impact of climate change coping and adaptation strategies on livestock farmers' technical efficiency: the case of rural Ghana.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {12}, pages = {14386-14400}, pmid = {33210253}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Female ; Ghana ; Humans ; Livestock ; }, abstract = {Compared with developed nations, developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change and variability. In this study, a coping and adaptation strategies (CCCAs) index, data envelopment analysis (DEA), and fractional regression model (FRM) are used to explore the impact of farmers' CCCAs on technical efficiency (TE) among goat farmers in Ghana. Using survey data collected from goat farmers in the northern part of Ghana, the results reveal the following: first, most of the farmers were inefficient in their production. Thus, out of the 124 goat farmers, only 13 (10.5%), 3 (2.4%), and 4 (3.2%) were efficient under variable return to scale (VRS), constant returns to scale (CRS), and scale efficiency (SE), respectively. Second, regarding a quantitative relationship, CCCAs can help increase farmer' efficiency. Again CCCAs impact on female farmers' TE was profound than their counterparts. Finally, CCCAs have heterogeneous impacts on goat farmers in different groups. Our findings provide policy implications to improve CCCAs and enhance the goat farmers' TE.}, }
@article {pmid33209268, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, VM and Punzalan, D and Rowe, L}, title = {Climate change has different predicted effects on the range shifts of two hybridizing ambush bug (Phymata, Family Reduviidae, Order Hemiptera) species.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {21}, pages = {12036-12048}, pmid = {33209268}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {AIM: A universal attribute of species is that their distributions are limited by numerous factors that may be difficult to quantify. Furthermore, climate change-induced range shifts have been reported in many taxa, and understanding the implications of these shifts remains a priority and a challenge. Here, we use Maxent to predict current suitable habitat and to project future distributions of two closely related, parapatrically distributed Phymata species in light of anthropogenic climate change.<br><br>LOCATION: North America.<br><br>TAXON: Phymata americana Melin 1930 and Phymata pennsylvanica Handlirsch 1897, Family: Reduviidae, Order: Hemiptera.<br><br>METHODS: We used the maximum entropy modeling software Maxent to identify environmental variables maintaining the distribution of two Phymata species, Phymata americana and Phymata pennsylvanica. Species occurrence data were collected from museum databases, and environmental data were collected from WorldClim. Once we gathered distribution maps for both species, we created binary suitability maps of current distributions. To predict future distributions in 2050 and 2070, the same environmental variables were used, this time under four different representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5; as well, binary suitability maps of future distributions were also created. To visualize potential future hybridization, the degree of overlap between the two Phymata species was calculated.<br><br>RESULTS: The strongest predictor to P. americana ranges was the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, while precipitation of the driest month and mean temperature of the warmest quarter were strong predictors of P. pennsylvanica ranges. Future ranges for P. americana are predicted to increase northwestward at higher CO2 concentrations. Suitable ranges for P. pennsylvanica are predicted to decrease with slight fluctuations around range edges. There is an increase in overlapping ranges of the two species in all future predictions.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: These evidences for different environmental requirements for P. americana and P. pennsylvanica account for their distinct ranges. Because these species are ecologically similar and can hybridize, climate change has potentially important eco-evolutionary ramifications. Overall, our results are consistent with effects of climate change that are highly variable across species, geographic regions, and over time.}, }
@article {pmid33207503, year = {2021}, author = {Xu, X and Xia, Z and Liu, Y and Liu, E and Müller, K and Wang, H and Luo, J and Wu, X and Beiyuan, J and Fang, Z and Xu, J and Di, H and Li, Y}, title = {Interactions between methanotrophs and ammonia oxidizers modulate the response of in situ methane emissions to simulated climate change and its legacy in an acidic soil.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {752}, number = {}, pages = {142225}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142225}, pmid = {33207503}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Ammonia ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Methane ; *Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Methane (CH4) is one of the most important greenhouse gases which can be formed by methanogens and oxidized by methanotrophs, as well as ammonia oxidizers. Agricultural soils can be both a source and sink for atmospheric CH4. However, it is unclear how climate change, will affect CH4 emissions and the underlying functional guilds. In this field study, we determined the impact of simulated climate change (a warmer and drier condition) and its legacy effect on CH4 emissions and the methanogenic and methanotrophic communities, as well as their relationships with ammonia oxidizers in an acidic soil with urea application. The climate change conditions were simulated in a greenhouse, and the legacy effect was simulated by removing the greenhouse after twelve months. Simulated climate change significantly decreased the in situ CH4 emissions in the urea-treated soils while the legacy effect significantly decreased the in situ CH4 emissions in the control plots, but had very little effect in the urea-treated soils. This indicates that the impact of simulated climate change and its legacy on CH4 emissions was significantly modified by nitrogen fertilization. Methanotrophs were more sensitive than methanogens in response to simulated climate change and its legacy effect, especially in the urea treated soil. Significant negative correlations were observed between the abundances of ammonia oxidizers and methanotrophs. Additionally, results of partial least path modeling (PLS-PM) indicated that the interactions of methanogens and methanotrophs with ammonia oxidizing archaea (AOA) had significant positive relationships with in situ CH4 emissions under the simulated climate change condition. Our work highlights the important role of AOA for CH4 emissions under climate change conditions. Further research is needed to better understand this effect in other ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid33207464, year = {2021}, author = {Xu, X and Li, F and Lin, Z and Song, X}, title = {Holocene fire history in China: Responses to climate change and human activities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {753}, number = {}, pages = {142019}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142019}, pmid = {33207464}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Fire is an intrinsic feature of terrestrial ecosystems as well as a key Earth system process that significantly influences ecosystem patterns, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although local and regional paleofires across China have been investigated, the history of these phenomena at the national scale as well as possible drivers remain unknown. This study investigated spatiotemporal patterns in fire activity across China based on 107 individual site charcoal records. The aim of this work was to discuss the possible impact of climate and human activities on fire in China. Results showed that fire activities across China declined gradually overall between the early Holocene (12 ka BP) and the middle Holocene (7.3 ka BP) but then sharply increased in occurrence after 7.3 ka BP. Data showed that although regional fire activities did not vary synchronously, more events tended to occur in the late Holocene and there were relative less in the early-to-middle Holocene. These changes in Holocene fire activity closely mirrored millennial scale moisture variations across China. Intensified human activities over the last 3 ka might also be responsible for a sharp increase in fire activity. Variable trends in fire activities within regions might also be attributed to large-scale climatic controls modulated by local factors, which determined burn likelihood. This study enhances our insights into the fire history of China and may help to provide improved future projections for such phenomena given current climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33203557, year = {2021}, author = {Li, W and Ruiz-Menjivar, J and Zhang, L and Zhang, J}, title = {Climate change perceptions and the adoption of low-carbon agricultural technologies: Evidence from rice production systems in the Yangtze River Basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {759}, number = {}, pages = {143554}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143554}, pmid = {33203557}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Using a sample of 1115 rice farmers, we explored climate change perceptions, adoption of agricultural low-carbon technologies (LCTs), and the determinants influencing rice farmers' climate change adaptation in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), central China. We built a theoretical framework based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and performed both binary and count estimations to explore the determinants affecting farmers' adoption of LCTs. Our results indicated that most rice farmers strongly agreed they observed shifting local weather conditions (52.74% of respondents) and irregular rainfall patterns (52.56%) within the last year. Further, over two-thirds of the respondents perceived that agricultural production contributes to climate variability (26.73% strongly agreed, and 40.54% agreed with that statement). In terms of the adoption intensity of LCTs, we found that about 96% of rice farmers implemented at least one low-carbon technology. Importantly, farmers' perceptions of climate change were positively associated with climate change adaptation. Other significant predictors of climate change adaptation included gender, years of experience, access to agricultural training through extension services, exchange of technical information among farmers, and access to mobile networks and postal services. We underlined policy recommendations that may accelerate climate change adaptation in rice production and complement current agricultural low-carbon programs in China.}, }
@article {pmid33203331, year = {2020}, author = {Pol, D and Ramezani, J and Gomez, K and Carballido, JL and Carabajal, AP and Rauhut, OWM and Escapa, IH and Cúneo, NR}, title = {Extinction of herbivorous dinosaurs linked to Early Jurassic global warming event.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {287}, number = {1939}, pages = {20202310}, pmid = {33203331}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Argentina ; Biological Evolution ; Climate ; *Dinosaurs ; Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Fossils ; *Global Warming ; *Herbivory ; Phylogeny ; Skull ; }, abstract = {Sauropods, the giant long-necked dinosaurs, became the dominant group of large herbivores in terrestrial ecosystems after multiple related lineages became extinct towards the end of the Early Jurassic (190-174 Ma). The causes and precise timing of this key faunal change, as well as the origin of eusauropods (true sauropods), have remained ambiguous mainly due to the scarce dinosaurian fossil record of this time. The terrestrial sedimentary successions of the Cañadón Asfalto Basin in central Patagonia (Argentina) document this critical interval of dinosaur evolution. Here, we report a new dinosaur with a nearly complete skull that is the oldest eusauropod known to date and provide high-precision U-Pb geochronology that constrains in time the rise of eusauropods in Patagonia. We show that eusauropod dominance was established after a massive magmatic event impacting southern Gondwana (180-184 Ma) and coincided with severe perturbations to the climate and a drastic decrease in the floral diversity characterized by the rise of conifers with small scaly leaves. Floral and faunal records from other regions suggest these were global changes that impacted the terrestrial ecosystems during the Toarcian warming event and formed part of a second-order mass extinction event.}, }
@article {pmid33203113, year = {2020}, author = {Orlov, D and Menshakova, M and Thierfelder, T and Zaika, Y and Böhme, S and Evengard, B and Pshenichnaya, N}, title = {Healthy Ecosystems Are a Prerequisite for Human Health-A Call for Action in the Era of Climate Change with a Focus on Russia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {33203113}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; Russia/epidemiology ; Zoonoses ; }, abstract = {Throughout history, humans have experienced epidemics. The balance of living in nature encircled by microorganisms is delicate. More than 70% of today's emerging infections are zoonotic, i.e., those in which microorganisms transmitted from animals infect humans. Species are on the move at speeds never previously recorded, among ongoing climate change which is especially rapid at high latitudes. This calls for intensified international surveillance of Northern infectious diseases. Russia holds the largest area of thawing permafrost among Northern nations, a process which threatens to rapidly disrupt the balance of nature. In this paper, we provide details regarding Russian health infrastructure in order to take the first steps toward a collaborative international survey of Northern infections and international harmonization of the procured data.}, }
@article {pmid33201911, year = {2020}, author = {Dagtekin, D and Şahan, EA and Denk, T and Köse, N and Dalfes, HN}, title = {Past, present and future distributions of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) under climate change projections.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {e0242280}, pmid = {33201911}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Climate Change ; Fagus/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Fossils ; Iran ; Phylogeography ; Pollen ; Refugium ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {Species distribution models can help predicting range shifts under climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the late Quaternary distribution of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) and to project future distribution ranges under different climate change scenarios using a combined palaeobotanical, phylogeographic, and modelling approach. Five species distribution modelling algorithms under the R-package `biomod2`were applied to occurrence data of Fagus orientalis to predict distributions under present, past (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 ka, Mid-Holocene, 6 ka), and future climatic conditions with different scenarios obtained from MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 global climate models. Distribution models were compared to palaeobotanical and phylogeographic evidence. Pollen data indicate northern Turkey and the western Caucasus as refugia for Oriental beech during the Last Glacial Maximum. Although pollen records are missing, molecular data point to Last Glacial Maximum refugia in northern Iran. For the mid-Holocene, pollen data support the presence of beech in the study region. Species distribution models predicted present and Last Glacial Maximum distribution of Fagus orientalis moderately well yet underestimated mid-Holocene ranges. Future projections under various climate scenarios indicate northern Iran and the Caucasus region as major refugia for Oriental beech. Combining palaeobotanical, phylogeographic and modelling approaches is useful when making projections about distributions of plants. Palaeobotanical and molecular evidence reject some of the model projections. Nevertheless, the projected range reduction in the Caucasus region and northern Iran highlights their importance as long-term refugia, possibly related to higher humidity, stronger environmental and climatic heterogeneity and strong vertical zonation of the forest vegetation.}, }
@article {pmid33199920, year = {2020}, author = {Cai, W and Ng, B and Geng, T and Wu, L and Santoso, A and McPhaden, MJ}, title = {Publisher Correction: Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {588}, number = {7836}, pages = {E3}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2958-5}, pmid = {33199920}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid33199894, year = {2020}, author = {Dorn, A and Puchta, H}, title = {DNA repair meets climate change.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {1398-1399}, pmid = {33199894}, issn = {2055-0278}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; DNA Repair ; *Thermotolerance ; }, }
@article {pmid33196054, year = {2020}, author = {Bevacqua, E and Vousdoukas, MI and Zappa, G and Hodges, K and Shepherd, TG and Maraun, D and Mentaschi, L and Feyen, L}, title = {More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change.}, journal = {Communications earth &amp; environment}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {47}, pmid = {33196054}, issn = {2662-4435}, abstract = {Compound flooding arises from storms causing concurrent extreme meteorological tides (that is the superposition of storm surge and waves) and precipitation. This flooding can severely affect densely populated low-lying coastal areas. Here, combining output from climate and ocean models, we analyse the concurrence probability of the meteorological conditions driving compound flooding. We show that, under a high emissions scenario, the concurrence probability would increase globally by more than 25% by 2100 compared to present. In latitudes above 40[o] north, compound flooding could become more than 2.5 times as frequent, in contrast to parts of the subtropics where it would weaken. Changes in extreme precipitation and meteorological tides account for most (77% and 20%, respectively) of the projected change in concurrence probability. The evolution of the dependence between precipitation and meteorological tide dominates the uncertainty in the projections. Our results indicate that not accounting for these effects in adaptation planning could leave coastal communities insufficiently protected against flooding.}, }
@article {pmid33195830, year = {2020}, author = {Kephe, PN and Ayisi, KK and Petja, BM}, title = {A decision support system for institutional support to farmers in the face of climate change challenges in Limpopo province.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {e04989}, pmid = {33195830}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Smallholder farmers in South Africa continue to be affected by the changing climate despite the existence of support to improve their adaptive capacity. This study focused on the institutional support systems and support types available to farmers in agro-ecological zones of Limpopo Province and assessed support types best suited to each area. Six hundred farmers were purposively sampled across the agro-ecological zones of Limpopo and interviewed. Support types looked at included monetary, machinery, seeds, educational support and others (irrigation scheme, animals, fertilizer, pesticides). Supporting institutions included Agro finance institutions, DAFF, Banks, and NGOs. Results showed that 70.01% of farmers received support from DAFF 25.60% from NGO's and 4.39% from Agro finance institutions. The most number of support received was two types 33.3% of the farmers. The result from the ANOVA showed that there were no significant differences in the level of difficulty experienced by farmers in accessing the various support institutions across the agro-ecological zones. In terms of the various support types received, there was a statistically significant difference in seeds (p = 0.002 < α = 0.05) and educational (p = 0.0001 < α = 0.05) support received between the different areas. Furthermore, the support needs varied across zones with farmers in arid-zone needing machinery, education, seeds and lastly monetary support while the semi-arid zone needed machinery, education, others, seeds, monetary and the humid, machinery, education, others, money and seeds. It is therefore recommended that support for farmers should be location-specific in order to enhance the adaptive capacity of an area and not be based only on the availability of certain support. There is a need for proper coordination between institutions in their aim to assist farmers to cope with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33193903, year = {2021}, author = {Asayama, S and Emori, S and Sugiyama, M and Kasuga, F and Watanabe, C}, title = {Are we ignoring a black elephant in the Anthropocene? Climate change and global pandemic as the crisis in health and equality.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {695-701}, pmid = {33193903}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {Climate change and coronavirus pandemic are the twin crises in the Anthropocene, the era in which unsustainable growth of human activities has led to a significant change in the global environment. The two crises have also exposed a chronic social illness of our time-a deep, widespread inequality in society. Whilst the circumstances are unfortunate, the pandemic can provide an opportunity for sustainability scientists to focus more on human society and its inequalities, rather than a sole focus on the natural environment. It opens the way for a new normative commitment of science in a time of crises. We suggest three agendas for future climate and sustainability research after the pandemic: (1) focus on health and well-being, (2) moral engagement through empathy, and (3) science of loss for managing grief.}, }
@article {pmid33193610, year = {2020}, author = {Logan, ML and Cox, CL}, title = {Genetic Constraints, Transcriptome Plasticity, and the Evolutionary Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in genetics}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {538226}, pmid = {33193610}, issn = {1664-8021}, abstract = {In situ adaptation to climate change will be critical for the persistence of many ectotherm species due to their relative lack of dispersal capacity. Climate change is causing increases in both the mean and the variance of environmental temperature, each of which may act as agents of selection on different traits. Importantly, these traits may not be heritable or have the capacity to evolve independently from one another. When genetic constraints prevent the "baseline" values of thermal performance traits from evolving rapidly, phenotypic plasticity driven by gene expression might become critical. We review the literature for evidence that thermal performance traits in ectotherms are heritable and have genetic architectures that permit their unconstrained evolution. Next, we examine the relationship between gene expression and both the magnitude and duration of thermal stress. Finally, we identify genes that are likely to be important for adaptation to a changing climate and determine whether they show patterns consistent with thermal adaptation. Although few studies have measured narrow-sense heritabilities of thermal performance traits, current evidence suggests that the end points of thermal reaction norms (tolerance limits) are moderately heritable and have the potential to evolve rapidly. By contrast, performance at intermediate temperatures has substantially lower evolutionary potential. Moreover, evolution in many species appears to be constrained by genetic correlations such that populations can adapt to either increases in mean temperature or temperature variability, but not both. Finally, many species have the capacity for plastic expression of the transcriptome in response to temperature shifts, with the number of differentially expressed genes increasing with the magnitude, but not the duration, of thermal stress. We use these observations to develop a conceptual model that describes the likely trajectory of genome evolution in response to changes in environmental temperature. Our results indicate that extreme weather events, rather than gradual increases in mean temperature, are more likely to drive genetic and phenotypic change in wild ectotherms.}, }
@article {pmid33193520, year = {2020}, author = {Cabrera, J and González, PM and Puntarulo, S}, title = {The Phycotoxin Domoic Acid as a Potential Factor for Oxidative Alterations Enhanced by Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {576971}, pmid = {33193520}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid33192893, year = {2020}, author = {Bostrom, A and Böhm, G and Hayes, AL and O'Connor, RE}, title = {Credible Threat: Perceptions of Pandemic Coronavirus, Climate Change and the Morality and Management of Global Risks.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {578562}, pmid = {33192893}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Prior research suggests that the pandemic coronavirus pushes all the "hot spots" for risk perceptions, yet both governments and populations have varied in their responses. As the economic impacts of the pandemic have become salient, governments have begun to slash their budgets for mitigating other global risks, including climate change, likely imposing increased future costs from those risks. Risk analysts have long argued that global environmental and health risks are inseparable at some level, and must ultimately be managed systemically, to effectively increase safety and welfare. In contrast, it has been suggested that we have worry budgets, in which one risk crowds out another. "In the wild," our problem-solving strategies are often lexicographic; we seek and assess potential solutions one at a time, even one attribute at a time, rather than conducting integrated risk assessments. In a U.S. national survey experiment in which participants were randomly assigned to coronavirus or climate change surveys (N = 3203) we assess risk perceptions, and whether risk perception "hot spots" are driving policy preferences, within and across these global risks. Striking parallels emerge between the two. Both risks are perceived as highly threatening, inequitably distributed, and not particularly controllable. People see themselves as somewhat informed about both risks and have moral concerns about both. In contrast, climate change is seen as better understood by science than is pandemic coronavirus. Further, individuals think they can contribute more to slowing or stopping pandemic coronavirus than climate change, and have a greater moral responsibility to do so. Survey assignment influences policy preferences, with higher support for policies to control pandemic coronavirus in pandemic coronavirus surveys, and higher support for policies to control climate change risks in climate change surveys. Across all surveys, age groups, and policies to control either climate change or pandemic coronavirus risks, support is highest for funding research on vaccines against pandemic diseases, which is the only policy that achieves majority support in both surveys. Findings bolster both the finite worry budget hypothesis and the hypothesis that supporters of policies to confront one threat are disproportionately likely also to support policies to confront the other threat.}, }
@article {pmid33191486, year = {2021}, author = {Schattman, RE and Niles, MT and Aitken, HM}, title = {Water use governance in a temperate region: Implications for agricultural climate change adaptation in the Northeastern United States.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {4}, pages = {942-955}, pmid = {33191486}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {JVA#11242306-108//USDA Northeast Climate Hub/ ; MEO-1022424//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; New England ; Water ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change and access to water are interrelated concerns for agriculture and other sectors, even in temperate regions. Governance approaches and regulatory frameworks determine who has access to water, for what purpose, and when. In the northeastern United States, water governance has historically been conducted by states through a combination of statutory guidance and common law. However, it is unclear what effect if current governance approaches will be sufficient for achieving resource conservation and equitable allocation in a changing climate. To provide insight into these issues, we conducted the first review of freshwater governance in the 12 states that comprise the U.S. Northeast. Specifically, we examine their heterogeneous approaches to surface and groundwater use, permitting and reporting, and scarcity provisions. Using agriculture as the sector of focus, we show through narrative review and quantitative analysis that change in the proportion of cropland that is irrigated in each state does not differ based on governance approach. We also suggest that future decades may bring regulatory shifts relevant to agriculture, changes in enforcement, increased competition between agriculture and other users, and greater potential competition between states for water resources. This case study raises the question: how should we prepare for the time when competition for, or degradation of, a resource surpasses the ability of existing governance mechanisms to ensure conservation and equitable distribution?}, }
@article {pmid33189394, year = {2021}, author = {Galvao, P and Sus, B and Lailson-Brito, J and Azevedo, A and Malm, O and Bisi, T}, title = {An upwelling area as a hot spot for mercury biomonitoring in a climate change scenario: A case study with large demersal fishes from Southeast Atlantic (SE-Brazil).}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {269}, number = {}, pages = {128718}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2020.128718}, pmid = {33189394}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Biological Monitoring ; Brazil ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fishes ; Food Chain ; Humans ; *Mercury/analysis ; *Methylmercury Compounds/analysis ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Data concerning the monomethylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation in marine biota from Southeast Atlantic Ocean are scarce. This study purchased large specimens of demersal fishes from an upwelling region: Warsaw grouper (Epinephelus nigritus), Dusky grouper (Epinephelus marginatus) and Namorado sandperch (Pseudopercis numida). The authors addressed the bioaccumulation and toxicokinetic of mercury in fish organs, and the toxicological risk for human consumption of this metal in the muscle tissues accessed. Additionally, the present study discussed the possible implications of shifts in key variables of the environment related to a climate-changing predicted scenario, to the mercury biomagnification in a tropical upwelling system. The muscle was the main stock of MeHg, although the highest THg concentrations have been found in liver tissue. Regarding the acceptable maximum level (ML = 1 mg kg[-1]), E. nigritus and E. marginatus showed 22% of the samples above this limit. Concerning P. numida, 77% were above 0.5 mg kg[-1], but below the ML. The %MeHg in liver and muscle showed no significative correlations, which suggest independent biochemical pathways to the toxicokinetic of MeHg, and constrains the indirect assessment of the mercury contamination in the edible tissue by the liver analyses. The present study highlights the food web features of a tropical upwelling ecosystem that promote mercury biomagnification. Additionally, recent studies endorse the enhancement of upwelling phenomenon due to the climate global changes which boost the pumping of mercury enriched water to the oceanic upper layer. Therefore, the upwelling areas might be hot spots for MeHg monitoring in marine biota.}, }
@article {pmid33184624, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, F and Wang, D and Guo, G and Zhang, M and Lang, J and Wei, J}, title = {Potential Distributions of the Invasive Barnacle Scale Ceroplastes cirripediformis (Hemiptera: Coccidae) Under Climate Change and Implications for Its Management.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {114}, number = {1}, pages = {82-89}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toaa245}, pmid = {33184624}, issn = {1938-291X}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Hemiptera ; Temperature ; *Thoracica ; }, abstract = {Ceroplastes cirripediformis Comstock is one of the most destructive invasive pests that have caused various negative impacts to agricultural, ornamental, and greenhouse plants. Since it is time- and labor-consuming to control C. cirripediformis, habitat evaluation of this pest may be the most cost-effective method for predicting its dispersal and avoiding its outbreaks. Here, we evaluated the effects of climatic variables on distribution patterns of C. cirripediformis and produced a global risk map for its outbreak under current and future climate scenarios using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio 9), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio 19), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio 18), and mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio 8) were the main factors influencing the current modeled distribution of C. cirripediformis, respectively, contributing 41.9, 29.4, 18.8, and 7.9%. The models predicted that, globally, potential distribution of C. cirripediformis would be across most zoogeographical regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, in the future, both the total potential distribution region and its area of highly suitable habitat are expected to expand slightly in all representative concentration pathway scenarios. The information generated from this study will contribute to better identify the impacts of climate change upon C. cirripediformis's potential distribution while also providing a scientific basis for forecasting insect pest spread and outbreaks. Furthermore, this study serves an early warning for the regions of potential distribution, predicted as highly suitable habitats for this pest, which could promote its prevention and control.}, }
@article {pmid33184523, year = {2020}, author = {Eriksen, C and Simon, GL and Roth, F and Lakhina, SJ and Wisner, B and Adler, C and Thomalla, F and Scolobig, A and Brady, K and Bründl, M and Neisser, F and Grenfell, M and Maduz, L and Prior, T}, title = {Rethinking the interplay between affluence and vulnerability to aid climate change adaptive capacity.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {162}, number = {1}, pages = {25-39}, pmid = {33184523}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Affluence and vulnerability are often seen as opposite sides of a coin-with affluence generally understood as reducing forms of vulnerability through increased resilience and adaptive capacity. However, in the context of climate change and an increase in associated hazards and disasters, we suggest the need to re-examine this dynamic relationship-a complex association we define here as the Affluence-Vulnerability Interface (AVI). We review research in different national contexts to show how a more nuanced understanding of the AVI can (a) problematize the notion that increasing material affluence necessarily has a mitigating influence on social vulnerability, (b) extend our analysis of social vulnerability beyond low-income regions to include affluent contexts and (c) improve our understanding of how psychosocial characteristics influence people's vulnerability. Finally, we briefly outline three methodological approaches that we believe will assist future engagement with the AVI.}, }
@article {pmid33182219, year = {2021}, author = {Bhuiyan, KA and Rodríguez, BM and Pires, A and Riba, I and Dellvals, &#xc1; and Freitas, R and Conradi, M}, title = {Experimental evidence of uncertain future of the keystone ragworm Hediste diversicolor (O.F. Müller, 1776) under climate change conditions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {750}, number = {}, pages = {142031}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142031}, pmid = {33182219}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Polychaeta ; Seawater ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical ; }, abstract = {It is currently assumed that climate change related factors pose severe challenges to biodiversity maintenance. This paper assesses the multi-stressor effects of elevated temperature (15 °C as control, 25 °C as elevated) and CO2 levels (pH 8.1 as control, 7.5 and 7.0 representing acidifying conditions) on the physiological (survival and regenerative capacity), behavioral (feeding and burrowing activities), and biochemical changes (metabolic capacity, oxidative status and biotransformation mechanisms) experienced by the keystone polychaete Hediste diversicolor. Temperature rise enlarged the adverse effect of marine acidification on the survival of H. diversicolor, delayed the beginning of the excavation activity, enhancing the negative effects that pH decrease had in the burrowing behavior of this polychaete. Additionally, regardless of the temperature, exposure of H. diversicolor to acidification results in a reduction in the feeding rate. It is the first time that this decreased feeding capacity is found related to seawater acidification in this species. The healing of the wound and the blastemal formation were retarded due to these two climatic factors which hinder the regenerative process of polychaetes. These vital physiological functions of H. diversicolor can be related to the oxidative stress induced by climate change conditions since free radicals overproduced will impair cells functioning, affecting species biochemical and physiological performance, including feeding and tissue regeneration. The present results also demonstrated that although polychaetes' metabolic capacity was enhanced under stress conditions, organisms were still able to increase or maintain their energy reserves. Our findings are of major environmental relevance considering that predicted climate change conditions will affect species vital and ecological and physiological capacities. These can be translated into shrinking not only at the individual and population level but also in microbial and endofaunal diversities, in the detritus processing in estuaries and biogeochemical cycles at the ecosystem level. Thus the conservation of H. diversicolor populations is vital for the normal functioning of estuarine mudflat ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid33182005, year = {2021}, author = {Kim, SU and Kim, KY}, title = {Impact of climate change on the primary production and related biogeochemical cycles in the coastal and sea ice zone of the Southern Ocean.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {751}, number = {}, pages = {141678}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141678}, pmid = {33182005}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change in the Southern Hemisphere has exerted impact on the primary production in the Southern Ocean (SO). Using a recently released reanalysis dataset on global biogeochemistry, a comprehensive analysis was conducted on the complex biogeochemical seasonal cycle and the impact of climate change with a focus in areas within the meridional excursion of the sea ice boundary-coastal and continental shelf zone (CCSZ) and seasonal sea ice zone (SIZ). The seasonal cycles of primary production and related nutrients are closely linked with the seasonal changes in sea ice and sea surface temperatures. As sea ice retreats and allows energy and gas exchange across the sea surface, phytoplankton growth is initiated, consuming accumulated nutrients within the shallow depth of ~40 m. The seasonal evolutions of physical, biological and chemical variables show both spatial and temporal consistency with each other. Climate change has altered the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle. While primary production has generally increased along with an intensified uptake of CO2, some areas show a reduction in production (e.g., Prydz Bay, eastern Indian Ocean). In the CCSZ, increased iron utilization and light availability allowed production to be increased. However, the mechanism by which these factors are altered varies from one location to another, including changes in sea ice cover, surface stratification, and downwelling/upwelling. In the SIZ, where iron is generally a limiting factor, iron supply is a key driver of changes in primary production regardless of other nutrients. There is a clear influence of climatic change on the biogeochemical cycle although the signal is still weak.}, }
@article {pmid33180793, year = {2020}, author = {Fazal, O and Hotez, PJ}, title = {NTDs in the age of urbanization, climate change, and conflict: Karachi, Pakistan as a case study.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {e0008791}, pmid = {33180793}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Arbovirus Infections/epidemiology ; Bacterial Infections/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; *Communicable Disease Control ; Ethnic Violence ; Health Services Accessibility/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Helminthiasis/epidemiology ; Humans ; Neglected Diseases/*epidemiology ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; Population Density ; Protozoan Infections/epidemiology ; Urban Population ; Urbanization ; Vulnerable Populations/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid33180577, year = {2020}, author = {Levy, JI}, title = {Climate Change and Health Justice: New Perspectives on Pressing Challenges.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {110}, number = {12}, pages = {1718}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2020.305971}, pmid = {33180577}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Racism ; *Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid33179379, year = {2021}, author = {Carrasco, L and Papeş, M and Lochner, EN and Ruiz, BC and Williams, AG and Wiggins, GJ}, title = {Potential regional declines in species richness of tomato pollinators in North America under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {e02259}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2259}, pmid = {33179379}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Solanum lycopersicum ; North America ; Pollination ; }, abstract = {About 70% of the world's main crops depend on insect pollination. Climate change is already affecting the abundance and distribution of insects, which could cause geographical mismatches between crops and their pollinators. Crops that rely primarily on wild pollinators (e.g., crops that cannot be effectively pollinated by commercial colonies of honey bees) could be particularly in jeopardy. However, limited information on plant-pollinator associations and pollinator distributions complicate the assessment of climate change impacts on specific crops. To study the potential impacts of climate change on pollination of a specific crop in North America, we use the case of open-field tomato crops, which rely on buzz pollinators (species that use vibration to release pollen, such as bumble bees) to increase their production. We aimed to (1) assess potential changes in buzz pollinator distribution and richness, and (2) evaluate the overlap between areas with high densities of tomato crops and high potential decrease in richness. We used baseline (1961-1990) climate and future (2050s and 2080s) climatic projections in ecological niche models fitted with occurrences of wild bees, documented in the literature as pollinators of tomatoes, to estimate the baseline and future potential distribution of suitable climatic conditions of targeted species and to create maps of richness change across North America. We obtained reliable models for 15 species and found important potential decreases in the distribution of some pollinators (e.g., Lasioglossum pectorale and Augochlorella aurata). We observed geographical discrepancies in the projected change in species richness across North America, detecting important declines in the eastern United States (up to 11 species decrease for 2050s). After overlapping the maps of species richness change with a tomato crop map for the United States, we found spatial correspondence between richness declines and areas with high concentration of tomato crops. Disparities in the effects of climate change on the potential future distribution of different wild pollinators and geographical variation in richness highlight the importance of crop-specific studies. Our study also emphasizes the challenges of compiling and modeling crop-specific pollinator data and the need to improve our understanding of current distribution of pollinators and their community dynamics under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33175213, year = {2022}, author = {Fitchett, JM and Swatton, DA}, title = {Exploring public awareness of the current and future malaria risk zones in South Africa under climate change: a pilot study.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {66}, number = {2}, pages = {301-311}, pmid = {33175213}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Malaria/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Pilot Projects ; South Africa/epidemiology ; Travel ; }, abstract = {Although only a small proportion of the landmass of South Africa is classified as high risk for malaria, the country experiences on-going challenges relating to malaria outbreaks. Climate change poses a growing threat to this already dire situation. While considerable effort has been placed in public health campaigns in the highest-risk regions, and national malaria maps are updated to account for changing climate, malaria cases have increased. This pilot study considers the sub-population of South Africans who reside outside of the malaria area, yet have the means to travel into this high-risk region for vacation. Through the lens of the governmental "ABC of malaria prevention", we explore this sub-population's awareness of the current boundaries to the malaria area, perceptions of the future boundary under climate change, and their risk-taking behaviours relating to malaria transmission. Findings reveal that although respondents self-report a high level of awareness regarding malaria, and their boundary maps reveal the broad pattern of risk distribution, their specifics on details are lacking. This includes over-estimating both the current and future boundaries, beyond the realms of climate-topographic possibility. Despite over-estimating the region of malaria risk, the respondents reveal an alarming lack of caution when travelling to malaria areas. Despite being indicated for high-risk malaria areas, the majority of respondents did not use chemoprophylaxis, and many relied on far less-effective measures. This may in part be due to respondents relying on information from friends and family, rather than medical or governmental advice.}, }
@article {pmid33170741, year = {2020}, author = {Hess, JJ and Ranadive, N and Boyer, C and Aleksandrowicz, L and Anenberg, SC and Aunan, K and Belesova, K and Bell, ML and Bickersteth, S and Bowen, K and Burden, M and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Carlton, E and Cissé, G and Cohen, F and Dai, H and Dangour, AD and Dasgupta, P and Frumkin, H and Gong, P and Gould, RJ and Haines, A and Hales, S and Hamilton, I and Hasegawa, T and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y and Horton, DE and Karambelas, A and Kim, H and Kim, SE and Kinney, PL and Kone, I and Knowlton, K and Lelieveld, J and Limaye, VS and Liu, Q and Madaniyazi, L and Martinez, ME and Mauzerall, DL and Milner, J and Neville, T and Nieuwenhuijsen, M and Pachauri, S and Perera, F and Pineo, H and Remais, JV and Saari, RK and Sampedro, J and Scheelbeek, P and Schwartz, J and Shindell, D and Shyamsundar, P and Taylor, TJ and Tonne, C and Van Vuuren, D and Wang, C and Watts, N and West, JJ and Wilkinson, P and Wood, SA and Woodcock, J and Woodward, A and Xie, Y and Zhang, Y and Ebi, KL}, title = {Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {128}, number = {11}, pages = {115001}, pmid = {33170741}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {P30 ES010126/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; DP5 OD023100/OD/NIH HHS/United States ; /WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; *Coronavirus ; Disease Outbreaks ; Epidemiologic Studies ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; *Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions.<br><br>METHODS: An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies.<br><br>RESULTS: The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting.<br><br>DISCUSSION: This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745.}, }
@article {pmid33169278, year = {2021}, author = {Hamdullah,  and Ali, S and Khan, A and Shah, SA and Khan, SU}, title = {Economic appraisal of transformative climate change on potential variations in wellbeing of wheat growers across various ecological zones.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {8}, pages = {10077-10091}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-11409-4}, pmid = {33169278}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Humans ; Temperature ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an emerging reality across the globe effecting the human lives directly and indirectly as well. Agriculture sector is highly exposed to the climate and would be affected to large extent in future. This study probes the impacts of climate change on net revenue of wheat growers across agroclimatic zones of Balochistan. Using multistage sampling procedure, primary data was gathered from sample of 438 wheat farmers across agroclimatic zones of Balochistan. Two seasonal data of years 2018 and 2019 were used along with seasonal climatic data of temperature and rainfall of 2017-2019. Ricardian technique was utilized to investigate the impact of changing climate on net revenue of wheat crop. Results revealed that temperature and rainfall have nonlinear relationships with Net revenue acre[-1] of wheat growers. The estimated critical temperature for net revenue maximization was 21 °C. The optimal level of rainfall was 98 mm for net revenue maximization. Forecasting for all zones showed that with increase of 2 °C from the current level could decline net revenue by 8.7% and 3 °C could decrease net revenue by 15%. Zone-wise forecasting showed that increase in warming by 2 °C will adversely affect the net revenue in all zone except IV where net revenue will increase by 10%. Zone II and zone VII will suffer huge losses of 21% and 25%, respectively, of the current net revenue with 2 °C rise temperature. Government and other environmental agencies need to pay close attention to tree plantation in zones II and VII in particular and throughout Balochistan province in general to contain/moderate temperature rise in the future.}, }
@article {pmid33169005, year = {2021}, author = {Peters, A and Schneider, A}, title = {Cardiovascular risks of climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Cardiology}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, pmid = {33169005}, issn = {1759-5010}, mesh = {Age Factors ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution/adverse effects ; Health Status ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Extreme heat events are now more frequent in many parts of the world as a result of climate change. The combined effects of heat, air pollution, individual age, and socioeconomic and health status are responsible for avoidable acute events of cardiovascular disease and need to be considered in order to prevent and treat cardiovascular diseases effectively.}, }
@article {pmid33168736, year = {2020}, author = {}, title = {Correction to Supporting Information for Morales-Castilla et al., Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {48}, pages = {30860}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2019721117}, pmid = {33168736}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid33168302, year = {2021}, author = {Chueh, YY and Fan, C and Huang, YZ}, title = {Copper concentration simulation in a river by SWAT-WASP integration and its application to assessing the impacts of climate change and various remediation strategies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {279}, number = {}, pages = {111613}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111613}, pmid = {33168302}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Copper/analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; Soil ; Water ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {The present study aimed to investigate the copper distribution in a river through the integrated utilization of the soil hydrological assessment model and water quality model. The Erren River was selected as the investigated river system because an apparent heavy metal pollution was observed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to estimate the soil flux. The Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program Model (WASP) was used for water quality simulation. The copper was selected as the model chemical and scenarios of various copper effluent control measures and impacts of the heavy rainfall by climate change on copper concentration were simulated. The results showed that the aqueous copper was adsorbed to suspended solids and the high aqueous copper concentration resulted in a high copper concentration in the sediment. In dry seasons, the aqueous copper concentration increased 215% comparing to the 2006-2016 average (baseline) concentration and a 20% decrease in copper concentration in the sediment was observed due to less wash-out solid. Under the impact of enhanced rainfall by climate change, the aqueous copper concentration decreased due to the increased river flow, which also reduced the copper deposition causing the copper concentration in the sediment lower than that in the baseline condition. In the middle and downstream river sections, the copper concentration in the water and sediment phases decreased around 66% by implementing a more-stringent effluent standard. The suspended solid played a key role for copper movement in a river. The copper accumulation in the sediment might be alleviated by reducing its aqueous concentration.}, }
@article {pmid33168249, year = {2021}, author = {Wang, W and Yuan, S and Wu, C and Yang, S and Zhang, W and Xu, Y and Gu, J and Zhang, H and Wang, Z and Yang, J and Zhu, J}, title = {Field experiments and model simulation based evaluation of rice yield response to projected climate change in Southeastern China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {761}, number = {}, pages = {143206}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143206}, pmid = {33168249}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Oryza ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Evaluating the impact of climate change factors, especially temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2), on rice yield is essential to ensure future food security. Because of the wide biogeographical distribution of rice, such evaluations are conducted exclusively through modeling efforts. However, geographical forecasts could, potentially, be improved by the inclusion of field-based data on projected increases in temperature and CO2 concentration from a given rice-growing region. In this study, the latest version of the ORYZA (v3) crop model was evaluated with additional yield data obtained from a temperature-controlled free-air CO2 enrichment system (T-FACE) in Southeastern China. ORYZA (v3) results were then evaluated in the context of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using five global change models (GCMs). Our findings indicate that climate change, i.e., inclusion of CO2 and temperature effects, decreased mean rice yield by 3.5%, and 9.4% for RCP 4.5; and by 10.5 and 47.9% for RCP 8.5 for the scenarios in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The CO2 fertilizer effect partially compensated but did not offset the negative impacts of rising temperature on rice yields. Warmer temperatures were the primary factor that influenced yield by adversely affecting the spikelet fertility factor and spikelet number. Overall, climate change would have positive effects on rice yields until the middle-century in Southeastern China but negative effects were noted by the end of the century. These results may be of interest for informing policy makers and developing appropriate strategies to improve future rice productivity for this region of China.}, }
@article {pmid33166684, year = {2020}, author = {do Nascimento Neto, JF and da Mota, AJ and Roque, RA and Heinrichs-Caldas, W and Tadei, WP}, title = {Analysis of the transcription of genes encoding heat shock proteins (hsp) in Aedes aegypti Linnaeus, 1762 (Diptera: Culicidae), maintained under climatic conditions provided by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change) for the year 2100.}, journal = {Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases}, volume = {86}, number = {}, pages = {104626}, doi = {10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104626}, pmid = {33166684}, issn = {1567-7257}, mesh = {Aedes/*genetics ; Animals ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Gene Expression Regulation ; *Gene-Environment Interaction ; Global Warming ; Heat-Shock Proteins/*genetics ; Mosquito Vectors/*genetics ; Transcription, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Human actions intensify the greenhouse effect, aggravating climate changes in the Amazon and elsewhere in the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) foresees a global increase of up to 4.5 °C and 850 ppm CO2 (above current levels) by 2100. This will impact the biology of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, vector of Dengue, Zika, urban Yellow Fever and Chikungunya. Heat shock proteins are associated with adaptations to anthropic environments and the interaction of some viruses with the vector. The transcription of the hsp26, hsp83 and hsc70 genes of an A. aegypti population, maintained for more than forty-eight generations, in the Current, Intermediate and Extreme climatic scenario predicted by the IPCC was evaluated with qPCR. In females, highest levels of hsp26, hsp83 and hsc70 expression occurred in the Intermediate scenario, while in males, levels were high only for hsp26 gene in Current and Extreme scenarios. Expression of hsp83 and hsc70 genes in males was low under all climatic scenarios, while in the Extreme scenario females had lower expression than in the Current scenario. The data suggest compensatory or adaptive processes acting on heat shock proteins, which can lead to changes in the mosquito's biology, altering vectorial competence.}, }
@article {pmid33162148, year = {2021}, author = {Liu, Z and Herman, JD and Huang, G and Kadir, T and Dahlke, HE}, title = {Identifying climate change impacts on surface water supply in the southern Central Valley, California.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {759}, number = {}, pages = {143429}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143429}, pmid = {33162148}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Mountain regions in arid and semi-arid climates, such as California, are considered particularly sensitive to climate change because global warming is expected to alter snowpack storage and related surface water supply. It is therefore important to accurately capture snowmelt processes in watershed models for climate change impact assessment. In this study we use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to estimate projected changes in snowpack and streamflow in four alpine tributaries to the agriculturally important but less studied southern Central Valley, California. Watershed responses are evaluated for four CMIP5 climate models (HadGEM_ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2 and MIROC5) and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2020-2099. SWAT models are calibrated following a dual-objective, lumped calibration approach with an automatic calibration against observed streamflow (stage 1) and a manual calibration against reconstructed Parallel Energy Balance (ParBal) snow water equivalent (SWE) data (stage 2). Results indicate that under a warming climate, peak streamflow is expected to increase 0.5-4 times in magnitude in the coming decades and to arrive 2-4 months earlier in the year because of earlier snowmelt. In the foreseeable future, snow cover will reduce gradually in the lower elevations and diminish at higher rates at higher elevation towards the end of the 21st century. Surface water supply is predicted to increase in the southern Central Valley under the evaluated scenarios but increased temporal variability (wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons) will create new challenges for managing supply. The study further highlights that the use of remote sensing based, reconstructed SWE data could fill the current gap of limited in-situ SWE observations to improve the snow calibration of SWAT to better predict climate change impacts in semi-arid, snow-dominated watersheds.}, }
@article {pmid33161577, year = {2021}, author = {Feidantsis, K and Pörtner, HO and Giantsis, IA and Michaelidis, B}, title = {Advances in understanding the impacts of global warming on marine fishes farmed offshore: Sparus aurata as a case study.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {98}, number = {6}, pages = {1509-1523}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.14611}, pmid = {33161577}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture ; Global Warming ; *Sea Bream ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Monitoring variations in proteins involved in metabolic processes, oxidative stress responses, cell signalling and protein homeostasis is a powerful tool for developing hypotheses of how environmental variations affect marine organisms' physiology and biology. According to the oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance hypothesis, thermal acclimation mechanisms such as adjusting the activities of enzymes of intermediary metabolism and of antioxidant defence mechanisms, inducing heat shock proteins (Hsps) or activating mitogen-activated protein kinases may all shift tolerance windows. Few studies have, however, investigated the molecular, biochemical and organismal responses by fishes to seasonal temperature variations in the field to link these to laboratory findings. Investigation of the impacts of global warming on fishes farmed offsore, in the open sea, can provide a stepping stone towards understanding effects on wild populations because they experience similar environmental fluctuations. Over the last 30 years, farming of the gilthead sea bream Sparus aurata (Linnaeus 1758) has become widespread along the Mediterranean coastline, rendering this species a useful case study. Based on available information, the prevailing seasonal temperature variations expose the species to the upper and lower limits of its thermal range. Evidence for this includes oxygen restriction, reduced feeding, reduced responsiveness to environmental stimuli, plus a range of molecular and biochemical indicators that change across the thermal range. Additionally, close relationships between biochemical pathways and seasonal patterns of metabolism indicate a connection between energy demand and metabolic processes on the one hand, and cellular stress responses such as oxidative stress, inflammation and autophagy on the other. Understanding physiological responses to temperature fluctuations in fishes farmed offshore can provide crucial background information for the conservation and successful management of aquaculture resources in the face of global change.}, }
@article {pmid33161088, year = {2021}, author = {Kajale, S and Jani, K and Sharma, A}, title = {Contribution of archaea and bacteria in sustaining climate change by oxidizing ammonia and sulfur in an Arctic Fjord.}, journal = {Genomics}, volume = {113}, number = {1 Pt 2}, pages = {1272-1276}, doi = {10.1016/j.ygeno.2020.11.005}, pmid = {33161088}, issn = {1089-8646}, mesh = {Ammonia/*metabolism ; Archaea/genetics/*metabolism ; Arctic Regions ; Bacteria/genetics/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Microbiota ; Oxidation-Reduction ; Sulfur/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The present study attempts to investigate the microbial communities and their potential to oxidize ammonia and sulfur at different sites of Arctic Fjord by targeted metagenomics. The high throughput sequencing revealed archaeal Thaumarchaeota (79.3%), Crenarchaeota (10.9%), Euryarchaeota (5.4%), and Woesearchaeota (2.9%) across different depths. In contrast, the bacterial communities depict predominance of Proteobacteria (52.6%), which comprises of dominant genera viz. Sulfurovum (11.2%) and Sulfurimonas (6.3%). Characterizing the metabolic potential of microbial communities with prime focus on the ammonia and sulfur cycling revealed the presence of amoABC and narGHYZ/ nxrAB genes encoding key enzymes. The ammonia cycling coupled with an augmentation of members of Nitrosopumilus belonging to the phylum Thaumarcheaota suggests the vital role of archaeal communities. Similarly, the persistence of chemolithoautotrophic members of Sulfurovum and Sulfurimonas along with the anaerobic genera Desulfocapsa and Desulfobulbus harboring SOX (sulfur-oxidation) system indicates the modulatory role of bacterial communities in sulfur cycling.}, }
@article {pmid33159881, year = {2020}, author = {Roa, L and Velin, L and Tudravu, J and McClain, CD and Bernstein, A and Meara, JG}, title = {Climate change: challenges and opportunities to scale up surgical, obstetric, and anaesthesia care globally.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {11}, pages = {e538-e543}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30247-3}, pmid = {33159881}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Anesthesia ; *Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Natural Disasters ; Obstetric Surgical Procedures ; *Surgical Procedures, Operative ; Temperature ; Workforce ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects human health in a myriad of ways, requiring reassessment of the nature of scaling up care delivery and the effect that care delivery has on the environment. 5 billion people do not have access to safe and timely surgical care, and the quantity and severity of conditions that require surgical, obstetric, and anaesthesia care will increase substantially as a result of climate change. However, surgery is resource intensive and contributes substantially to greenhouse-gas emissions. In response to climate change, the surgical, obstetric, and anaesthesia community has a key role to play to ensure that a scale-up of service delivery incorporates mitigation and adaptation strategies. As countries scale up surgical care, understanding the implications of surgery on climate change and the implications of climate change on surgical care will be crucial in the development of health policies.}, }
@article {pmid33159878, year = {2020}, author = {Lee, W and Kim, Y and Sera, F and Gasparrini, A and Park, R and Michelle Choi, H and Prifti, K and Bell, ML and Abrutzky, R and Guo, Y and Tong, S and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M and Nascimento Saldiva, PH and Lavigne, E and Orru, H and Indermitte, E and Jaakkola, JJK and Ryti, NRI and Pascal, M and Goodman, P and Zeka, A and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y and Hurtado Diaz, M and César Cruz, J and Overcenco, A and Nunes, B and Madureira, J and Scovronick, N and Acquaotta, F and Tobias, A and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Ragettli, MS and Guo, YL and Chen, BY and Li, S and Armstrong, B and Zanobetti, A and Schwartz, J and Kim, H}, title = {Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {11}, pages = {e512-e521}, pmid = {33159878}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {MR/R013349/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; P30 ES019776/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; MR/M022625/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Cities ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Cold Temperature/adverse effects ; Global Health ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Linear Models ; Mortality/*trends ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions.<br><br>METHODS: DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk.<br><br>FINDINGS: The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0&#xb7;4 to 1&#xb7;6&#xb0;C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0&#xb7;2-7&#xb7;4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0&#xb7;05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1&#xb0;C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1&#xb7;4-10&#xb7;3% in 2090-99.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health.<br><br>FUNDING: Korea Ministry of Environment.}, }
@article {pmid33159398, year = {2021}, author = {Bothwell, HM and Evans, LM and Hersch-Green, EI and Woolbright, SA and Allan, GJ and Whitham, TG}, title = {Genetic data improves niche model discrimination and alters the direction and magnitude of climate change forecasts.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {e02254}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2254}, pmid = {33159398}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Mexico ; Populus/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Ecological niche models (ENMs) have classically operated under the simplifying assumptions that there are no barriers to gene flow, species are genetically homogeneous (i.e., no population-specific local adaptation), and all individuals share the same niche. Yet, these assumptions are violated for most broadly distributed species. Here, we incorporate genetic data from the widespread riparian tree species narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia) to examine whether including intraspecific genetic variation can alter model performance and predictions of climate change impacts. We found that (1) P. angustifolia is differentiated into six genetic groups across its range from México to Canada and (2) different populations occupy distinct climate niches representing unique ecotypes. Comparing model discriminatory power, (3) all genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) outperformed the standard species-level ENM (3-14% increase in AUC; 1-23% increase in pROC). Furthermore, (4) gENMs predicted large differences among ecotypes in both the direction and magnitude of responses to climate change and (5) revealed evidence of niche divergence, particularly for the Eastern Rocky Mountain ecotype. (6) Models also predicted progressively increasing fragmentation and decreasing overlap between ecotypes. Contact zones are often hotspots of diversity that are critical for supporting species' capacity to respond to present and future climate change, thus predicted reductions in connectivity among ecotypes is of conservation concern. We further examined the generality of our findings by comparing our model developed for a higher elevation Rocky Mountain species with a related desert riparian cottonwood, P. fremontii. Together our results suggest that incorporating intraspecific genetic information can improve model performance by addressing this important source of variance. gENMs bring an evolutionary perspective to niche modeling and provide a truly "adaptive management" approach to support conservation genetic management of species facing global change.}, }
@article {pmid33156470, year = {2020}, author = {Potvin, L and Masuda, J}, title = {Climate change: a top priority for public health.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {111}, number = {6}, pages = {815-817}, doi = {10.17269/s41997-020-00447-7}, pmid = {33156470}, issn = {1920-7476}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid33155309, year = {2021}, author = {Carmona, AM and Renner, M and Kleidon, A and Poveda, G}, title = {Uncertainty of runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Amazon River basin.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1504}, number = {1}, pages = {76-94}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14515}, pmid = {33155309}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//Bundesministerium f&#xfc;r Bildung und Forschung/ ; //Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst/ ; //Max-Planck-Gesellschaft/ ; }, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers ; South America ; *Tropical Climate ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {We employ the approach of Roderick and Farquhar (2011) to assess the sensitivity of runoff (R) given changes in precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (Ep), and other properties that change the partitioning of P (n) by estimating coefficients that predict the weight of each variable in the relative change of R. We use this framework using different data sources and products for P, actual evapotranspiration (E), and Ep within the Amazon River basin to quantify the uncertainty of the hydrologic response at the subcatchment scale. We show that when estimating results from the different combinations of datasets for the entire river basin (at Óbidos), a 10% increase in P would increase R on average 16%, while a 10% increase in Ep would decrease R about 6%. In addition, a 10% change in the parameter n would affect the hydrological response of the entire basin around 5%. However, results change from catchment to catchment and are dependent on the combination of datasets. Finally, results suggest that enhanced estimates of E and Ep are needed to improve our understanding of the future scenarios of hydrological sensitivity with implications for the quantification of climate change impacts at the regional (subcatchment and subbasin) scale in Amazonia.}, }
@article {pmid33155284, year = {2021}, author = {Nash, MC and Adey, W and Harvey, AS}, title = {High Magnesium Calcite and Dolomite composition carbonate in Amphiroa (Lithophyllaceae, Corallinales, Rhodophyta): further documentation of elevated Mg in Corallinales with climate change implications.}, journal = {Journal of phycology}, volume = {57}, number = {2}, pages = {496-509}, doi = {10.1111/jpy.13098}, pmid = {33155284}, issn = {1529-8817}, mesh = {Calcium Carbonate ; Carbonates ; Climate Change ; Documentation ; Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Magnesium ; *Rhodophyta ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Species of the calcified, articulate coralline Amphiroa are key components of many shallow marine ecosystems. Understanding their mineral composition is important as their susceptibility to dissolution, due to ocean acidification, may vary with mineral composition. We studied the distribution of Mg-calcite, very high magnesium calcite (VHMC), and dolomite within Amphiroa species to elucidate their mineral properties and susceptibility to dissolution. Results revealed that the asymmetrical X-ray diffraction (XRD) pattern typical of Amphiroa globally represents high levels of VHMC and dolomite composition carbonate. The dolomite seems most likely to be disordered, but higher resolution XRD is required for confirmation. The calcified long sides of medullary cells have predominantly VHMC/dolomite and the corners have bands of VHMC/dolomite. Epithallial cell walls are low Mg-calcite, and cortical cells are low Mg-calcite with bands of VHMC. VHMC/dolomite is more stable than Mg-calcite, and this may provide a competitive advantage for Amphiroa species as seawater pH declines. Further work is required to determine the metabolic controls on VHMC/dolomite mineral formation.}, }
@article {pmid33154374, year = {2020}, author = {Zanatta, F and Engler, R and Collart, F and Broennimann, O and Mateo, RG and Papp, B and Muñoz, J and Baurain, D and Guisan, A and Vanderpoorten, A}, title = {Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {5601}, pmid = {33154374}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Bryophyta/classification/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Extinction, Biological ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; Plant Dispersal/*physiology ; Wind ; }, abstract = {The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7-96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.}, }
@article {pmid33154139, year = {2020}, author = {Clark, MA and Domingo, NGG and Colgan, K and Thakrar, SK and Tilman, D and Lynch, J and Azevedo, IL and Hill, JD}, title = {Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {370}, number = {6517}, pages = {705-708}, doi = {10.1126/science.aba7357}, pmid = {33154139}, issn = {1095-9203}, support = {205212/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Industry ; Food Supply ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {The Paris Agreement's goal of limiting the increase in global temperature to 1.5° or 2°C above preindustrial levels requires rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Although reducing emissions from fossil fuels is essential for meeting this goal, other sources of emissions may also preclude its attainment. We show that even if fossil fuel emissions were immediately halted, current trends in global food systems would prevent the achievement of the 1.5°C target and, by the end of the century, threaten the achievement of the 2°C target. Meeting the 1.5°C target requires rapid and ambitious changes to food systems as well as to all nonfood sectors. The 2°C target could be achieved with less-ambitious changes to food systems, but only if fossil fuel and other nonfood emissions are eliminated soon.}, }
@article {pmid33153692, year = {2020}, author = {Shankar, HM and Rice, MB}, title = {Update on Climate Change: Its Impact on Respiratory Health at Work, Home, and at Play.}, journal = {Clinics in chest medicine}, volume = {41}, number = {4}, pages = {753-761}, doi = {10.1016/j.ccm.2020.08.004}, pmid = {33153692}, issn = {1557-8216}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Lung Diseases/*etiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a crisis of vast proportions that has serious implications for pulmonary health. Increasing global temperatures influence respiratory health through extreme weather events, wildfires, prolonged allergy seasons, and worsening air pollution. Children, elderly patients, and patients with underlying lung disease are at elevated risk of complications from these effects of climate change. This paper summarizes the myriad ways in which climate change affects the respiratory health of patients at home and in outdoor environments and outlines measures for patients to protect themselves.}, }
@article {pmid33153330, year = {2022}, author = {Lynch, MJ and Stretesky, PB and Long, MA and Barrett, KL}, title = {The Climate Change-Temperature-Crime Hypothesis: Evidence from a Sample of 15 Large US Cities, 2002 to 2015.}, journal = {International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {430-450}, doi = {10.1177/0306624X20969934}, pmid = {33153330}, issn = {1552-6933}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Crime ; Humans ; Temperature ; United States ; }, abstract = {Drawing on prior studies, green criminologists have hypothesized that climate change will both raise the mean temperature and the level of crime. We call this the "climate change-temperature-crime hypothesis" ("CC-T-C"). This hypothesis is an extension of research performed on temperature and crime at the individual level. Other research explores this relationship by testing for the relationship between seasonality and crime within a given period of time (i.e., within years). Climate change, however, produces small changes in temperature over long periods of time, and in this view, the effect of climate change on crime should be assessed across and not within years. In addition, prior CC-T-C studies sometimes employ large geographic aggregations (e.g., the entire whole United States), which masks the CC-T-C association that appears at lower levels of aggregation. Moreover, globally, crime has declined across nations since the early 1990s, during a period of rising mean global temperatures, suggesting that the CC-T-C hypothesis does not fit the general trends in temperature and crime over time. Addressing these issues, the present study assesses the CC-T-C relationship for a sample of 15 large (N = 15) US cities over a 14-year period. Given the CC-T-C hypothesis parameters, we assessed this relationship using correlations between individual crime and temperature trends for each city. Crime trends were measured by both the number and rate of eight Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Part I crimes, so that for each city, there are 16 crime-temperature correlations. Using a liberal p value (p = .10), the temperature-crime correlations were rejected as insignificant in 220 of the 234 tests (94%). We discuss the Implications of this finding and suggest that rather than focusing on the temperature-crime relationship, green criminologists interested in the deleterious effects of climate change draw attention to its larger social, economic, environmental and ecological justice implications.}, }
@article {pmid33152311, year = {2020}, author = {Hiatt, RA and Beyeler, N}, title = {Cancer and climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Oncology}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {e519-e527}, doi = {10.1016/S1470-2045(20)30448-4}, pmid = {33152311}, issn = {1474-5488}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Neoplasms/diagnosis/*epidemiology ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The acute impact of climate change on human health is receiving increased attention, but little is known or appreciated about the effect of climate change on chronic diseases, particularly cancer. This Review provides a synopsis of what is known about climate change and the exposures it generates relevant to cancer. In the context of the world's cancer burden and the probable direction we could expect to follow in the absence of climate change, this scoping review of the literature summarises the effects that climate change is having on major cancers, from environmental exposures to ultraviolet radiation, air pollution, disruptions in the food and water supply, environmental toxicants, and infectious agents. Finally, we explore the effect of climate change on the possible disruption of health systems that have been essential to cancer control practice. We conclude with potential responses and opportunities for intervention.}, }
@article {pmid33152109, year = {2021}, author = {Yang, G and Roy, J and Veresoglou, SD and Rillig, MC}, title = {Soil biodiversity enhances the persistence of legumes under climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {229}, number = {5}, pages = {2945-2956}, doi = {10.1111/nph.17065}, pmid = {33152109}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Biomass ; Climate Change ; *Fabaceae ; Grassland ; *Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Global environmental change poses threats to plant and soil biodiversity. Yet, whether soil biodiversity loss can further influence plant community's response to global change is still poorly understood. We created a gradient of soil biodiversity using the dilution-to-extinction approach, and investigated the effects of soil biodiversity loss on plant communities during and following manipulations simulating global change disturbances in experimental grassland microcosms. Grass and herb biomass was decreased by drought and promoted by nitrogen deposition, and a fast recovery was observed following disturbances, independently of soil biodiversity loss. Warming promoted herb biomass during and following disturbance only when soil biodiversity was not reduced. However, legumes biomass was suppressed by these disturbances, and there were more detrimental effects with reduced soil biodiversity. Moreover, soil biodiversity loss suppressed the recovery of legumes following these disturbances. Similar patterns were found for the response of plant diversity. The changes in legumes might be partly attributed to the loss of mycorrhizal soil mutualists. Our study shows that soil biodiversity is crucial for legume persistence and plant diversity maintenance when faced with environmental change, highlighting the importance of soil biodiversity as a potential buffering mechanism for plant diversity and community composition in grasslands.}, }
@article {pmid33151991, year = {2020}, author = {van Wijk, M and Naing, S and Diaz Franchy, S and Heslop, RT and Novoa Lozano, I and Vila, J and Ballesté-Delpierre, C}, title = {Perception and knowledge of the effect of climate change on infectious diseases within the general public: A multinational cross-sectional survey-based study.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {e0241579}, pmid = {33151991}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; *Internationality ; Male ; *Public Health ; *Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Infectious diseases are emerging and re-emerging due to climate change. Understanding how climate variability affects the transmission of infectious diseases is important for both researchers and the general public. Yet, the widespread knowledge of the general public on this matter is unknown, and quantitative research is still lacking. A survey was designed to assess the knowledge and perception of 1) infectious diseases, 2) climate change and 3) the effect of climate change on infectious diseases. Participants were recruited via convenience sampling, and an anonymous cross-sectional survey with informed consent was distributed to each participant. Descriptive and inferential analyses were performed primarily focusing on the occupational background as well as nationality of participants. A total of 458 individuals participated in this study, and most participants were originally from Myanmar, the Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom and the United States. Almost half (44%) had a background in natural sciences and had a higher level of knowledge on infectious diseases compared to participants with non-science background (mean score of 12.5 and 11.2 out of 20, respectively). The knowledge of the effect of climate change on infectious diseases was also significantly different between participants with and without a background in natural sciences (13.1 and 11.8 out of 20, respectively). The level of knowledge on various topics was highly correlated with nationality but not associated with age. The general population demonstrated a high awareness and strong knowledge of climate change regardless of their background in natural sciences. This study exposes a knowledge gap in the general public regarding the effect of climate change on infectious diseases, and highlights that different levels of knowledge are observed in groups with differing occupations and nationalities. These results may help to develop awareness interventions for the general public.}, }
@article {pmid33150704, year = {2021}, author = {Couper, LI and MacDonald, AJ and Mordecai, EA}, title = {Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {738-754}, pmid = {33150704}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {R35 GM133439/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; DEB-1518681//National Science Foundation/ ; R35GM133439/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Incidence ; *Ixodes ; *Lyme Disease/epidemiology ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in temperate zones and a growing public health threat in the United States (US). The life cycles of the tick vectors and spirochete pathogen are highly sensitive to climate, but determining the impact of climate change on Lyme disease burden has been challenging due to the complex ecology of the disease and the presence of multiple, interacting drivers of transmission. Here we incorporated 18 years of annual, county-level Lyme disease case data in a panel data statistical model to investigate prior effects of climate variation on disease incidence while controlling for other putative drivers. We then used these climate-disease relationships to project Lyme disease cases using CMIP5 global climate models and two potential climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that interannual variation in Lyme disease incidence is associated with climate variation in all US regions encompassing the range of the primary vector species. In all regions, the climate predictors explained less of the variation in Lyme disease incidence than unobserved county-level heterogeneity, but the strongest climate-disease association detected was between warming annual temperatures and increasing incidence in the Northeast. Lyme disease projections indicate that cases in the Northeast will increase significantly by 2050 (23,619 ± 21,607 additional cases), but only under RCP8.5, and with large uncertainty around this projected increase. Significant case changes are not projected for any other region under either climate scenario. The results demonstrate a regionally variable and nuanced relationship between climate change and Lyme disease, indicating possible nonlinear responses of vector ticks and transmission dynamics to projected climate change. Moreover, our results highlight the need for improved preparedness and public health interventions in endemic regions to minimize the impact of further climate change-induced increases in Lyme disease burden.}, }
@article {pmid33139706, year = {2020}, author = {Varney, RM and Chadburn, SE and Friedlingstein, P and Burke, EJ and Koven, CD and Hugelius, G and Cox, PM}, title = {A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {5544}, pmid = {33139706}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τs) with warming. An approximation to the latter term for the top one metre of soil (ΔCs,τ) can be diagnosed from projections made with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 Earth System Models (ESMs), and is found to span a large range even at 2 °C of global warming (-196 ± 117 PgC). Here, we present a constraint on ΔCs,τ, which makes use of current heterotrophic respiration and the spatial variability of τs inferred from observations. This spatial emergent constraint allows us to halve the uncertainty in ΔCs,τ at 2 °C to -232 ± 52 PgC.}, }
@article {pmid33139009, year = {2021}, author = {Tan, ALS and Cheng, MCF and Giacoletti, A and Chung, JX and Liew, J and Sarà, G and Williams, GA}, title = {Integrating mechanistic models and climate change projections to predict invasion of the mussel, Mytilopsis sallei, along the southern China coast.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {762}, number = {}, pages = {143097}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143097}, pmid = {33139009}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; China ; Chlorophyll A ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Species invasion is an important cause of global biodiversity decline and is often mediated by shifts in environmental conditions such as climate change. To investigate this relationship, a mechanistic Dynamic Energy Budget model (DEB) approach was used to predict how climate change may affect spread of the invasive mussel Mytilopsis sallei, by predicting variation in the total reproductive output of the mussel under different scenarios. To achieve this, the DEB model was forced with present-day satellite data of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), and SST under two warming RCP scenarios and decreasing current Chl-a levels, to predict future responses. Under both warming scenarios, the DEB model predicted the reproductive output of M. sallei would enhance range extension of the mussel, especially in regions south of the Yangtze River when future declines in Chl-a were reduced by less than 10%, whereas egg production was inhibited when Chl-a decreased by 20-30%. The decrease in SST in the Yangtze River may, however, be a natural barrier to the northward expansion of M. sallei, with colder temperatures resulting in a strong decrease in egg production. Although the invasion path of M. sallei may be inhibited northwards by the Yangtze River, larger geographic regions south of the Yangtze River run the risk of invasion, with subsequent negative impacts on aquaculture through competition for food with farmed bivalves and damaging aquaculture facilities. Using a DEB model approach to characterise the life history traits of M. sallei, therefore, revealed the importance of food availability and temperature on the reproductive output of this mussel and allowed evaluation of the invasion risk for specific regions. DEB is, therefore, a powerful predictive tool for risk management of already established invasive populations and to identify regions with a high potential invasion risk.}, }
@article {pmid33135235, year = {2020}, author = {Kunreuther, H}, title = {Risk Management Solutions for Climate Change-Induced Disasters.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {40}, number = {S1}, pages = {2263-2271}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13616}, pmid = {33135235}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {EAR-1520683/SUB0000091//National Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Perception ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Management/*organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {In honor of the 40th anniversary of Risk Analysis, this article suggests ways of linking risk assessment and risk perception in developing risk management strategies that have a good chance of being implemented, focusing on the problem of reducing losses from natural hazards in the face of climate change. Following a checklist for developing an implementable risk management strategy, Section 2 highlights the impact that exponential growth of CO2 emissions is likely to have on future disaster losses as assessed by climate and social scientists. Section 3 then discusses how people perceive the risks of low-probability adverse events and the cognitive biases that lead them to underprepare for future losses. Based on this empirical evidence, Section 4 proposes a risk management strategy for reducing future losses using the principles of choice architecture to communicate the likelihood and consequences of disasters, coupled with economic incentives and well-enforced regulations.}, }
@article {pmid33134547, year = {2020}, author = {Rabin, BM and Laney, EB and Philipsborn, RP}, title = {The Unique Role of Medical Students in Catalyzing Climate Change Education.}, journal = {Journal of medical education and curricular development}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {2382120520957653}, pmid = {33134547}, issn = {2382-1205}, abstract = {Climate change is a well-recognized threat to human health with impacts on every organ system and with implications for disease processes across subspecialties. Climate-driven environmental exposures influence the pathophysiologic underpinnings of disease emphasized in the pre-clinical years of medical school. While medical schools are beginning to offer climate change and health electives, medical education is lagging in providing fundamental climate-and-health content to adequately prepare the next generation of physicians for the challenges that they will face in the provision of healthcare and the prevention and treatment of disease. This perspective piece highlights the unique role of medical students in catalyzing the incorporation of climate content into the pre-clinical medical school curriculum and provides topics for disseminated curricular integration with the concepts emphasized in the pre-clinical years of medical education.}, }
@article {pmid33131712, year = {2021}, author = {Duan, R and Huang, G and Li, Y and Zhou, X and Ren, J and Tian, C}, title = {Stepwise clustering future meteorological drought projection and multi-level factorial analysis under climate change: A case study of the Pearl River Basin, China.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {196}, number = {}, pages = {110368}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.110368}, pmid = {33131712}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Cluster Analysis ; Droughts ; Humans ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Climate change has significant impacts on the Pearl River Basin, and the regional ecological environment and human production may face severe challenges in the future due to changes in temperature and precipitation, as well as their derivative disasters (e.g., drought). Therefore, a full understanding of the possible impacts of climate change on Pearl River Basin is desired. In this study, the potential changes in temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions were projected through a stepwise clustering projection (SCP) model driven by multiple GCMs under two different RCPs. The developed model could facilitate specifying the inherently complex relationship between predictors and predictands, and its performance was proven to be great by comparing the observations and model simulations. A multi-level factorial analysis was employed to explore the major contributing factors to the variations in projecting drought conditions. The results suggested that the Pearl River Basin would suffer significant increasing trends in Tmean (i.e., 0.25-0.34 °C per decade under RCP4.5 and 0.42-0.60 °C per decade under RCP8.5), and the annual mean precipitation would increase under both RCPs. The drought events lasting for 1-2 months would be decreased by 7.7%, lasting for 3-4 months would be increased by 4.3%, and lasting for more than five months would be increased by 3.4% under RCP4.5, respectively. While they changed to 6.1%, 1.4%, and 4.7% under RCP8.5, respectively. More medium and long-term drought events with higher drought severity would occur. GCM has dominant influences on four different responses of drought duration, accounting for 50.20%, 52.61%, 56.71%, and 56.24% of total variabilities, respectively. Meanwhile, the effects explained by GCM*RCP interactions cannot be neglected, with an average contribution rate of 44.37%, 37.86%, 37.66%, and 35.83%, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid33131431, year = {2020}, author = {Gårdmark, A and Huss, M}, title = {Individual variation and interactions explain food web responses to global warming.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {1814}, pages = {20190449}, pmid = {33131431}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biomass ; Body Size ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Food Chain ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Understanding food web responses to global warming, and their consequences for conservation and management, requires knowledge on how responses vary both among and within species. Warming can reduce both species richness and biomass production. However, warming responses observed at different levels of biological organization may seem contradictory. For example, higher temperatures commonly lead to faster individual body growth but can decrease biomass production of fishes. Here we show that the key to resolve this contradiction is intraspecific variation, because (i) community dynamics emerge from interactions among individuals, and (ii) ecological interactions, physiological processes and warming effects often vary over life history. By combining insights from temperature-dependent dynamic models of simple food webs, observations over large temperature gradients and findings from short-term mesocosm and multi-decadal whole-ecosystem warming experiments, we resolve mechanisms by which warming waters can affect food webs via individual-level responses and review their empirical support. We identify a need for warming experiments on food webs manipulating population size structures to test these mechanisms. We stress that within-species variation in both body size, temperature responses and ecological interactions are key for accurate predictions and appropriate conservation efforts for fish production and food web function under a warming climate. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.}, }
@article {pmid33129026, year = {2021}, author = {Teodoro, JD and Prell, C and Sun, L}, title = {Quantifying stakeholder learning in climate change adaptation across multiple relational and participatory networks.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {278}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {111508}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111508}, pmid = {33129026}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Islands ; Maryland ; Stakeholder Participation ; }, abstract = {Responding to accelerating climate change impacts requires broad and effective engagement with stakeholders, at multiple geographic and governance levels. Stakeholder participation has been hailed as a facilitated approach in climate change adaptation that supports social learning, depolarization of perceptions, and fosters collective action. But stakeholder participation remains loosely interpreted and evaluating measures are limited. This study employs social network analysis (SNA) to investigate how social relations among stakeholders, which emerge as a result of participation, are associated with stakeholder learning, as changes in perceptions of climate change. We hypothesized that reciprocal ties of understanding, respect, and influence can predict changes in perceptions of climate change. This approach was applied to a case study in Deal Island Peninsula, Maryland (USA) where local residents, scientists, and government officials met from 2016 to 2018 to collaboratively manage the impacts of sea-level rise in their communities. We found that social relations based on mutual understanding, respect,and influence are positively associated with perceptions of climate change. We provide a detailed conceptualization and implementation of a network-based approach that may serve as a potential quantitative performance measure of stakeholder participation processes in climate change adaptation. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence of the role that emerging social relations have on enhancing or constraining social learning among stakeholders in the Deal Island Peninsula project.}, }
@article {pmid33127474, year = {2021}, author = {Vallianou, NG and Geladari, EV and Kounatidis, D and Geladari, CV and Stratigou, T and Dourakis, SP and Andreadis, EA and Dalamaga, M}, title = {Diabetes mellitus in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Diabetes &amp; metabolism}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {101205}, doi = {10.1016/j.diabet.2020.10.003}, pmid = {33127474}, issn = {1878-1780}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology ; Diabetes, Gestational/epidemiology ; Female ; Humans ; Pregnancy ; }, abstract = {Worldwide, diabetes mellitus (DM) represents a major public-health problem due to its increasing prevalence in tandem with the rising trend of obesity. However, climate change, with its associated negative health effects, also constitutes a worrisome problem. Patients with DM are experiencing more visits to emergency departments, hospitalizations, morbidity and mortality during heat waves at ever-increasing numbers. Such patients are particularly vulnerable to heat waves due to impaired thermoregulatory mechanisms in conjunction with impaired autonomous nervous system responses at high temperatures, electrolyte imbalances and rapid deterioration of kidney function, particularly among those aged > 80 years and with preexisting chronic kidney disease (CKD). Moreover, exposure to cold temperatures is associated with increased rates of acute myocardial infarction as well as poor glycaemic control, although results are conflicting regarding cold-related mortality among patients with DM. In addition to extremes of temperature, air pollution as a consequence of the climate crisis may also be implicated in the increased prevalence and incidence of DM, particularly gestational DM (GDM), and lead to deleterious effects in patients with DM. Thus, more large-scale studies are now required to elucidate the association between specific air pollutants and risk of DM. This review presents the currently available evidence for the detrimental effects of climate change, particularly those related to weather variables, on patients with DM (both type 1 and type 2) and GDM. Specifically, the effects of heat waves and extreme cold, and pharmaceutical and therapeutic issues and their implications, as well as the impact of air pollution on the risk for DM are synthesized and discussed here.}, }
@article {pmid33127398, year = {2021}, author = {Jeon, J and Park, JH and Yuk, H and Kim, YU and Yun, BY and Wi, S and Kim, S}, title = {Evaluation of hygrothermal performance of wood-derived biocomposite with biochar in response to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {193}, number = {}, pages = {110359}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.110359}, pmid = {33127398}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Charcoal ; *Climate Change ; Construction Materials ; *Wood ; }, abstract = {Wood is a sustainable resource and building material. It provides an excellent response to climate change and has excellent insulation performance. However, structural defects may occur due to decay from moisture, resulting in poor dimensional stability. The rich organic substances contained in wood can lead to mold when the moisture content is consistently high, adversely affecting the health of occupants. Therefore, we attempted to compensate for the disadvantages of wood in regard to water stability while maintaining the high thermal insulation performance and carbon dioxide storage capacity, using biochar from thermally decomposed spruce under oxygen limiting conditions. A wood-derived biocomposite was prepared by mixing biochar and soft wood-based chips using the hot-press method, and the thermal conductivity, specific heat, water vapor resistance factor, moisture adsorption, and moisture desorption performances were analyzed. The thermal conductivity of WB10 with 10 wt% biochar content was 0.09301 W/mK. This is a 7.98% decrease from 0.10108 W/mK, the thermal conductivity of WB0 without biochar. The water vapor resistance factor tended to increase when the biochar ratio increased. As the proportion of biochar increased, the equilibrium moisture content in high relative humidity tended to decrease, and it was found that the moisture adsorption and desorption performances were affected by the ratio of the biochar. Therefore, wood-derived biocomposites using biochar can be used in environmentally friendly materials, with improved thermal insulation performance and water stability.}, }
@article {pmid33127319, year = {2020}, author = {Schwartz, SA}, title = {America, consciousness, COVID-19, climate change, and migration.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {350-353}, pmid = {33127319}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Consciousness ; *Coronavirus ; *Coronavirus Infections ; Female ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; *Pneumonia, Viral ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, }
@article {pmid33127158, year = {2021}, author = {Benelli, G and Wilke, ABB and Bloomquist, JR and Desneux, N and Beier, JC}, title = {Overexposing mosquitoes to insecticides under global warming: A public health concern?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {762}, number = {}, pages = {143069}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143069}, pmid = {33127158}, issn = {1879-1026}, support = {U01 CK000510/CK/NCEZID CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Culex ; Global Warming ; *Insecticides ; Mosquito Control ; Mosquito Vectors ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {The combined effect of global warming and insecticide exposure on the spread of mosquito-borne diseases is poorly studied. In our opinion, more resources should be diverted to this topic to further research efforts and deal with this increasing threat. It is particularly important to determine how Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex vector species cope with insecticide exposure under warming temperatures, as well as how both stressors may impact the activity of mosquito biocontrol agents. Herein, we promote a discussion on the topic, fostering a research agenda with insights for the longer-term implementation of mosquito control strategies under the Integrated Vector Management framework.}, }
@article {pmid33127120, year = {2021}, author = {Chen, X and Zhang, H and Chen, W and Huang, G}, title = {Urbanization and climate change impacts on future flood risk in the Pearl River Delta under shared socioeconomic pathways.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {762}, number = {}, pages = {143144}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143144}, pmid = {33127120}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and urbanization are converging to challenge the flood control in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) due to their adverse impacts on precipitation extremes and the urban areas environment. Previous studies have investigated temporal changes in flood risk with various single factor, few have considered the joint effects of climate change, urbanization and socio-economic development. Here, based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of future (2030-2050) flood risk over the PRD combined with a thorough investigation of climate change, urbanization and socio-economic development. Precipitation extremes were projected using the regional climate model RegCM4.6, and urbanization growth was projected based on the CA-Markov model. The economic and population development was estimated by the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Flood risk mapping with different RCPs-urbanization-SSPs scenarios was developed for the PRD based on the set pair analyze theory. The results show that climate change and urbanization are expected to exacerbate flood risk in most parts of the PRD during the next few decades, concurrently with more intense extreme precipitation events. The high flood risk areas are projected mainly in the urban regions with unfavorable terrain and dense population. The highest flood risk areas are expected to increase by 8.72% and 19.80% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions may effectively mitigate the flood risk over the PRD. This study highlight the links between flood risk and changing environment, suggesting that flood risk management and preventative actions should be included in regional adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid33125305, year = {2021}, author = {Bray, CD and Battye, WH and Aneja, VP and Schlesinger, WH}, title = {Global emissions of NH3, NOx, and N2O from biomass burning and the impact of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {71}, number = {1}, pages = {102-114}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2020.1842822}, pmid = {33125305}, issn = {2162-2906}, mesh = {Ammonia ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Nitrogen ; *Nitrous Oxide ; }, abstract = {Emissions of ammonia (NH3), oxides of nitrogen (NOx; NO +NO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O) from biomass burning were quantified on a global scale for 2001 to 2015. On average biomass burning emissions at a global scale over the period were as follows: 4.53 ± 0.51 Tg NH3 year[-1], 14.65 ± 1.60 Tg NOx year[-1], and 0.97 ± 0.11 Tg N2O year[-1]. Emissions were comparable to other emissions databases. Statistical regression models were developed to project NH3, NOx, and N2O emissions from biomass burning as a function of burn area. Two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were analyzed for 2050-2055 ("mid-century") and 2090-2095 ("end of century"). Under the assumptions made in this study, the results indicate emissions of all species are projected to increase under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. Implications: This manuscript quantifies emissions of NH3, NOx, and N2O on a global scale from biomass burning from 2001-2015 then creates regression models to predict emissions based on climate change. Because reactive nitrogen emissions have such an important role in the global nitrogen cycle, changes in these emissions could lead to a number of health and environmental impacts.}, }
@article {pmid33124196, year = {2020}, author = {Starup-Hansen, J and Dunne, H and Sadler, J and Jones, A and Okorie, M}, title = {Climate change in healthcare: Exploring the potential role of inhaler prescribing.}, journal = {Pharmacology research &amp; perspectives}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e00675}, pmid = {33124196}, issn = {2052-1707}, mesh = {Administration, Inhalation ; Asthma/drug therapy/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care/standards/*trends ; *Drug Prescriptions/standards ; Dry Powder Inhalers/standards/*trends ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Metered Dose Inhalers/standards/trends ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/drug therapy/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. As a result, governments around the world are committing to legislative change in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs). The healthcare sector makes a significant contribution to GHGEs and in line with national legislation in the UK, the NHS has recently committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. The management of asthma and COPD largely depends on the prescribing of medications that are delivered through inhalers. In the UK, the use of pressurized metered dose inhalers (pMDIs), which rely on hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) propellants accounts for 3.5% of the NHS's total carbon footprint. In contrast, dry powder inhalers (DPIs) have a much lower carbon footprint due to the absence of a HFC propellant. Here we review evidence of the impact of inhaler choices across four domains: environmental impact, clinical effectiveness, cost effectiveness and patient preferences. We find that as well as a lower global-warming potential, DPIs have additional benefits over pMDIs in other domains and should be considered first line where clinically appropriate.}, }
@article {pmid33123779, year = {2020}, author = {Behera, M and Sena, DR and Mandal, U and Kashyap, PS and Dash, SS}, title = {Integrated GIS-based RUSLE approach for quantification of potential soil erosion under future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {11}, pages = {733}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08688-2}, pmid = {33123779}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; Geographic Information Systems ; India ; Models, Theoretical ; Retrospective Studies ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Human-induced agricultural and developmental activities cause substantial alteration to the natural geography of a landscape; thereby accelerates the geologic soil erosion process. This necessitates quantification of catchment-scale soil erosion under both retrospective and future scenarios for efficient conservation of soil resources. Here, we present a revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) based soil erosion estimation framework at an unprecedentedly high spatial resolution (30 × 30 m) to quantify the average annual soil loss and sediment yield from an agriculture-dominated river basin. The input parameters were derived by using the observed rainfall data, soil characteristics (soil texture, hydraulic conductivity, organic matter content), and topographic characteristics (slope length and percent slope) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) and satellite imageries. The developed approach was evaluated in the Brahmani River basin (BRB) of eastern India, wherein the different RUSLE inputs, viz., rainfall erosivity (R factor), soil erodibility (K factor), topographic (LS factor), crop cover (C factor), and management practice (P factor) factors have the magnitude of 1937 to 4867 MJ mm ha[-1] h[-1] year[-1], 0.023 to 0.039 t h ha MJ[-1] ha[-1] mm[-1], 0.03 to 74, 0.16 to 1, and 0 to 1, respectively. The estimated average annual soil loss over the BRB ranged from 0 to 319.55 t ha[-1] year[-1], and subsequent erosion categorization revealed that 54.2% of basin area comes under extreme soil erosion zones in the baseline period. Similarly, the sediment yield estimates varied in the range of 0.96 to 133.31 t ha[-1] year[-1], and 35.81% area were identified as high soil erosion potential zones. The extent of erosion under climate change scenario was assessed using the outputs of HadGEM2-ES climate model for the future time scales of 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2080 under the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The severity of soil erosion under climate change is expected to have a mixed impact in the range of -25 to 25% than the baseline scenario. The outcomes of this study will serve as a valuable tool for decision-makers while implementing management policies over the BRB, and can be well extended to any global catchment-scale applications.}, }
@article {pmid33119783, year = {2020}, author = {El Ghaziri, M and Morse, BL}, title = {Climate Change in Nursing Curriculum: The Time Is Now.}, journal = {The Journal of nursing education}, volume = {59}, number = {11}, pages = {660}, doi = {10.3928/01484834-20201020-14}, pmid = {33119783}, issn = {1938-2421}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Curriculum/trends ; *Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate/methods ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33119749, year = {2020}, author = {Holt, JR and Bernaola, L and Britt, KE and McCullough, C and Roth, M and Wagner, J and Ragozzino, M and Aviles, L and Li, Z and Huval, F and Pandey, M and Lee, BW and Asche, M and Hayes, A and Cohen, A and Marshall, A and Quellhorst, HE and Wilkins, RV and Nguyen, V and Maille, J and Skinner, RK and Ternest, JJ and Anderson, S and Gula, SW and Hauri, K and Eason, J and Mulcahy, M and Lee, S and Villegas, JM and Shorter, P}, title = {Synergisms in Science: Climate Change and Integrated Pest Management Through the Lens of Communication-2019 Student Debates.}, journal = {Journal of insect science (Online)}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {33119749}, issn = {1536-2442}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; *Information Dissemination ; *Pest Control ; }, abstract = {Every year, the Student Debates Subcommittee (SDS) of the Student Affairs Committee (SAC) for the annual Entomological Society of America (ESA) meeting organizes the Student Debates. This year, the SAC selected topics based on their synergistic effect or ability to ignite exponential positive change when addressed as a whole. For the 2019 Student Debates, the SAC SDS identified these topic areas for teams to debate and unbiased introduction speakers to address: 1) how to better communicate science to engage the public, particularly in the area of integrated pest management (IPM), 2) the influential impacts of climate change on agriculturally and medically relevant insect pests, and 3) sustainable agriculture techniques that promote the use of IPM to promote food security. Three unbiased introduction speakers gave a foundation for our audience to understand each debate topic, while each of six debate teams provided a strong case to support their stance or perspective on a topic. Debate teams submitted for a competitive spot for the annual ESA Student Debates and trained for the better part of a year to showcase their talents in presenting logical arguments for a particular topic. Both the debate teams and unbiased introduction speakers provided their insight toward a better understanding of the complexities of each topic and established a foundation to delve further into the topics of science advocacy and communication, climate change, and the many facets of integrated pest management.}, }
@article {pmid33118308, year = {2021}, author = {Gervais, CR and Huveneers, C and Rummer, JL and Brown, C}, title = {Population variation in the thermal response to climate change reveals differing sensitivity in a benthic shark.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {108-120}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15422}, pmid = {33118308}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Flinders University/ ; //Macquarie University/ ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Sharks ; Swimming ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Many species with broad distributions are exposed to different thermal regimes which often select for varied phenotypes. This intraspecific variation is often overlooked but may be critical in dictating the vulnerability of different populations to environmental change. We reared Port Jackson shark (Heterodontus portusjacksoni) eggs from two thermally discrete populations (i.e. Jervis Bay and Adelaide) under each location's present-day mean temperatures, predicted end-of-century temperatures and under reciprocal-cross conditions to establish intraspecific thermal sensitivity. Rearing temperatures strongly influenced ṀO2 Max and critical thermal limits, regardless of population, indicative of acclimation processes. However, there were significant population-level effects, such that Jervis Bay sharks, regardless of rearing temperature, did not exhibit differences in ṀO2 Rest , but under elevated temperatures exhibited reduced maximum swimming activity with step-wise increases in temperature. In contrast, Adelaide sharks reared under elevated temperatures doubled their ṀO2 Rest , relative to their present-day temperature counterparts; however, maximum swimming activity was not influenced. With respect to reciprocal-cross comparisons, few differences were detected between Jervis Bay and Adelaide sharks reared under ambient Jervis Bay temperatures. Similarly, juveniles (from both populations) reared under Adelaide conditions had similar thermal limits and swimming activity (maximum volitional velocity and distance) to each other, indicative of conserved acclimation capacity. However, under Adelaide temperatures, the ṀO2 Rest of Jervis Bay sharks was greater than that of Adelaide sharks. This indicates that the energetics of cooler water population (Adelaide) is likely more thermally sensitive than that of the warmer population (Jervis Bay). While unique to elasmobranchs, these data provide further support that by treating species as static, homogeneous populations, we ignore the impacts of thermal history and intraspecific variation on thermal sensitivity. With climate change, intraspecific variation will manifest as populations move, demographics change or extirpations occur, starting with the most sensitive populations.}, }
@article {pmid33114783, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, LJ and Ma, S and Qiao, YP and Zhang, JC}, title = {Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {33114783}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Development of suitable ecological protection and restoration policies for sustainable management needs to assess the potential impacts of future land use and climate change on ecosystem services. The two ecological shelters and three belts (TSTB) are significant for improving ecosystem services and ensuring China's and global ecological security. In this study, we simulated land use in 2050 and estimated the spatial distribution pattern of net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and soil conservation from 2010 to 2050 under future climate change. The results showed that water yield, NPP, and soil conservation exhibited a spatial pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, while in terms of the temporal pattern, water yield and NPP increased, but soil conservation decreased. Water yield was mainly influenced by precipitation, NPP was affected by temperature and implementation of ecological restoration, and soil conservation was controlled by precipitation and slope. There was a strong spatial heterogeneity between trade-offs and synergies. In terms of the temporal, with the combination of climate change and ecological restoration, there was a synergistic relationship between water yield and NPP. However, the relationships between water yield and soil conservation, and between NPP and soil conservation were characterized by trade-offs. In the process of ecological construction, it is necessary to consider the differences between overall and local trade-offs and synergies, as well as formulate sustainable ecological management policies according to local conditions. Understanding the response of ecosystem services to future climate change and land use policies can help address the challenges posed by climate change and achieve sustainable management of natural resources.}, }
@article {pmid33114602, year = {2020}, author = {Li, L and Yang, J and Wu, J}, title = {Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin.}, journal = {Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {20}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {33114602}, issn = {1424-8220}, support = {No.41590845//A theoretical analysis of interactive coercing effects between urbanization and eco-environment:/ ; }, abstract = {Global warming and land-use change affects runoff in the regional basin. Affected by different factors, such as abundant rainfall and increased impervious surface, the Taihu basin becomes more vulnerable to floods. As a result, a future flood risk analysis is of great significance. This paper simulated the land-use expansion and analyzed the surface change from 2020 to 2050 using the neural network Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) model. Moreover, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was corrected for deviation and used to analyze the climate trend. Second, the verified SWAT model was applied to simulate future runoff and to analyze the future flood risk. The results show that (1) land use is dominated by cultivated land and forests. In the future, the area of cultivated land will decrease and construction land will expand to 1.5 times its present size. (2) The average annual precipitation and temperature will increase by 1.2% and 1.5 degrees from 2020 to 2050, respectively. During the verified period, the NSE and r-square values of the SWAT model are greater than 0.7. (3) Compared with the historical extreme runoff, the extreme runoff in the return period will increase 10%~25% under the eight climate models in 2050. In general, the flood risk will increase further under the climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid33114437, year = {2020}, author = {Lim, CL}, title = {Fundamental Concepts of Human Thermoregulation and Adaptation to Heat: A Review in the Context of Global Warming.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {33114437}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Body Temperature Regulation ; *Global Warming ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Paris ; }, abstract = {The international community has recognized global warming as an impending catastrophe that poses significant threat to life on earth. In response, the signatories of the Paris Agreement (2015) have committed to limit the increase in global mean temperature to < 1.5 °C from pre-industry period, which is defined as 1950-1890. Considering that the protection of human life is a central focus in the Paris Agreement, the naturally endowed properties of the human body to protect itself from environmental extremes should form the core of an integrated and multifaceted solution against global warming. Scholars believe that heat and thermoregulation played important roles in the evolution of life and continue to be a central mechanism that allows humans to explore, labor and live in extreme conditions. However, the international effort against global warming has focused primarily on protecting the environment and on the reduction of greenhouse gases by changing human behavior, industrial practices and government policies, with limited consideration given to the nature and design of the human thermoregulatory system. Global warming is projected to challenge the limits of human thermoregulation, which can be enhanced by complementing innate human thermo-plasticity with the appropriate behavioral changes and technological innovations. Therefore, the primary aim of this review is to discuss the fundamental concepts and physiology of human thermoregulation as the underlying bases for human adaptation to global warming. Potential strategies to extend human tolerance against environmental heat through behavioral adaptations and technological innovations will also be discussed. An important behavioral adaptation postulated by this review is that sleep/wake cycles would gravitate towards a sub-nocturnal pattern, especially for outdoor activities, to avoid the heat in the day. Technologically, the current concept of air conditioning the space in the room would likely steer towards the concept of targeted body surface cooling. The current review was conducted using materials that were derived from PubMed search engine and the personal library of the author. The PubMed search was conducted using combinations of keywords that are related to the theme and topics in the respective sections of the review. The final set of articles selected were considered "state of the art," based on their contributions to the strength of scientific evidence and novelty in the domain knowledge on human thermoregulation and global warming.}, }
@article {pmid33113687, year = {2020}, author = {Dodson, JC and Dérer, P and Cafaro, P and Götmark, F}, title = {Population growth and climate change: Addressing the overlooked threat multiplier.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {748}, number = {}, pages = {141346}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141346}, pmid = {33113687}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Birth Rate ; *Climate Change ; Fertility ; *Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Demographic trends will play a role in determining the magnitude of climate disruption and the ability of societies to adapt to it. Yet policy makers largely ignore the potential of fertility changes and population growth when designing policies to limit climate disruption and lessen its impacts. Here we argue that rights-based policy interventions could decrease fertility rates to levels consistent with low population pathways. We review country and global level studies that explore the effects of low population pathways on climate change mitigation and adaptation. We then provide rights-based policy recommendations, such as the expansion of voluntary family planning programs that incorporate elements from successful past programs, and highlight current research gaps. In concert with policies that end fossil fuel use and incentivize sustainable consumption, humane policies that slow population growth should be part of a multifaceted climate response. These policies require attention from scientists, policy analysts and politicians.}, }
@article {pmid33113083, year = {2020}, author = {Schramm, PJ and Ahmed, M and Siegel, H and Donatuto, J and Campbell, L and Raab, K and Svendsen, E}, title = {Climate Change and Health: Local Solutions to Local Challenges.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {363-370}, pmid = {33113083}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. ; *Climate Change ; Health Planning/*organization &amp; administration/standards ; *Health Status ; Humans ; United States ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change has direct impacts on human health, but those impacts vary widely by location. Local health impacts depend on a large number of factors including specific regional climate impacts, demographics and human vulnerabilities, and existing local adaptation capacity. There is a need to incorporate local data and concerns into climate adaptation plans and evaluate different approaches.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has provided funding, technical assistance, and an adaptation framework to assist localities with climate planning and activities. The differing processes with which states, cities, and tribes develop and implement adaptation plans have been observed. We outline examples of the implementation of CDC's framework and activities for local adaptation, with a focus on case studies at differing jurisdictional levels (a state, a city, and a sovereign tribe). The use of local considerations and data are important to inform climate adaptation. The adaptable implementation of CDC's framework is helping communities protect health.}, }
@article {pmid33112919, year = {2020}, author = {, }, title = {Correction: Cultivation Potential Projections of Breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis) Under Climate Change Scenarios Using an Empirically Validated Suitability Model Calibrated in Hawai'i.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {e0241547}, pmid = {33112919}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0228552.].}, }
@article {pmid33112403, year = {2021}, author = {Ogden, NH and Ben Beard, C and Ginsberg, HS and Tsao, JI}, title = {Possible Effects of Climate Change on Ixodid Ticks and the Pathogens They Transmit: Predictions and Observations.}, journal = {Journal of medical entomology}, volume = {58}, number = {4}, pages = {1536-1545}, pmid = {33112403}, issn = {1938-2928}, support = {CC999999/ImCDC/Intramural CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/*microbiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Population Density ; Tick-Borne Diseases/*transmission ; Ticks/*microbiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The global climate has been changing over the last century due to greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change over this century, accelerating without effective global efforts to reduce emissions. Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs) are inherently climate-sensitive due to the sensitivity of tick lifecycles to climate. Key direct climate and weather sensitivities include survival of individual ticks, and the duration of development and host-seeking activity of ticks. These sensitivities mean that in some regions a warming climate may increase tick survival, shorten life-cycles and lengthen the duration of tick activity seasons. Indirect effects of climate change on host communities may, with changes in tick abundance, facilitate enhanced transmission of tick-borne pathogens. High temperatures, and extreme weather events (heat, cold, and flooding) are anticipated with climate change, and these may reduce tick survival and pathogen transmission in some locations. Studies of the possible effects of climate change on TTBDs to date generally project poleward range expansion of geographical ranges (with possible contraction of ranges away from the increasingly hot tropics), upslope elevational range spread in mountainous regions, and increased abundance of ticks in many current endemic regions. However, relatively few studies, using long-term (multi-decade) observations, provide evidence of recent range changes of tick populations that could be attributed to recent climate change. Further integrated 'One Health' observational and modeling studies are needed to detect changes in TTBD occurrence, attribute them to climate change, and to develop predictive models of public- and animal-health needs to plan for TTBD emergence.}, }
@article {pmid33111925, year = {2020}, author = {Oliver, SL and Ribeiro, H}, title = {Zika virus syndrome, lack of environmental policies and risks of worsening by cyanobacteria proliferation in a climate change scenario.}, journal = {Revista de saude publica}, volume = {54}, number = {}, pages = {83}, pmid = {33111925}, issn = {1518-8787}, mesh = {Brazil/epidemiology ; Cell Proliferation ; *Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/physiology ; Environmental Policy ; Humans ; Risk ; Zika Virus Infection/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Almost half of the Brazilian population has no access to sewage collection and treatment. Untreated effluents discharged in waters of reservoirs for human supply favor the flowering of cyanobacteria - and these microorganisms produce toxins, such as saxitoxin, which is a very potent neurotoxin present in reservoirs in the Northeast region. A recent study confirmed that chronic ingestion of neurotoxin-infected water associated with Zika virus infection could lead to a microcephaly-like outcome in pregnant mice. Cyanobacteria benefit from hot weather and organic matter in water, a condition that has been intensified by climate change, according to our previous studies. Considering the new findings, we emphasize that zika arbovirus is widespread and worsened when associated with climate change, especially in middle- or low-income countries with low levels of sanitation coverage.}, }
@article {pmid33111333, year = {2021}, author = {Alfonso, S and Gesto, M and Sadoul, B}, title = {Temperature increase and its effects on fish stress physiology in the context of global warming.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {98}, number = {6}, pages = {1496-1508}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.14599}, pmid = {33111333}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; *Fishes ; *Global Warming ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The capacity of fishes to cope with environmental variation is considered to be a main determinant of their fitness and is partly determined by their stress physiology. By 2100, global ocean temperature is expected to rise by 1-4°C, with potential consequences for stress physiology. Global warming is affecting animal populations worldwide through chronic temperature increases and an increase in the frequency of extreme heatwave events. As ectotherms, fishes are expected to be particularly vulnerable to global warming. Although little information is available about the effects of global warming on stress physiology in nature, multiple studies describe the consequences of temperature increases on stress physiology in controlled laboratory conditions, providing insight into what can be expected in the wild. Chronic temperature increase constitutes a physiological load that can alter the ability of fishes to cope with additional stressors, which might compromise their fitness. In addition, rapid temperature increases are known to induce acute stress responses in fishes and might be of ecological relevance in particular situations. This review summarizes knowledge about effects of temperature increases on the stress physiology of fishes and discusses these in the context of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid33111316, year = {2021}, author = {Hamann, E and Blevins, C and Franks, SJ and Jameel, MI and Anderson, JT}, title = {Climate change alters plant-herbivore interactions.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {229}, number = {4}, pages = {1894-1910}, doi = {10.1111/nph.17036}, pmid = {33111316}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Herbivory ; Insecta ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Plant-herbivore interactions have evolved in response to coevolutionary dynamics, along with selection driven by abiotic conditions. We examine how abiotic factors influence trait expression in both plants and herbivores to evaluate how climate change will alter this long-standing interaction. The paleontological record documents increased herbivory during periods of global warming in the deep past. In phylogenetically corrected meta-analyses, we find that elevated temperatures, CO2 concentrations, drought stress and nutrient conditions directly and indirectly induce greater food consumption by herbivores. Additionally, elevated CO2 delays herbivore development, but increased temperatures accelerate development. For annual plants, higher temperatures, CO2 and drought stress increase foliar herbivory. Our meta-analysis also suggests that greater temperatures and drought may heighten florivory in perennials. Human actions are causing concurrent shifts in CO2 , temperature, precipitation regimes and nitrogen deposition, yet few studies evaluate interactions among these changing conditions. We call for additional multifactorial studies that simultaneously manipulate multiple climatic factors, which will enable us to generate more robust predictions of how climate change could disrupt plant-herbivore interactions. Finally, we consider how shifts in insect and plant phenology and distribution patterns could lead to ecological mismatches, and how these changes may drive future adaptation and coevolution between interacting species.}, }
@article {pmid33111101, year = {2020}, author = {Blumstein, M and Richardson, A and Weston, D and Zhang, J and Muchero, W and Hopkins, R}, title = {Protocol for Projecting Allele Frequency Change under Future Climate Change at Adaptive-Associated Loci.}, journal = {STAR protocols}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {100061}, pmid = {33111101}, issn = {2666-1667}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Genetic ; Gene Frequency/*genetics ; Genetic Loci/genetics ; Genetics, Population/*methods ; Genome, Plant/genetics ; Models, Genetic ; }, abstract = {We describe how to predict population-level allele frequency change at loci associated with locally adapted traits under future climate conditions. Our method can identify populations that are at higher risk of local extinction and those that might be prime targets for conservation intervention. We draw on previously developed community ecology statistical methods and apply them in novel ways to plant genomes. While a powerful diagnostic tool, our method requires a wealth of genomic data for use. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Blumstein et al. (2020).}, }
@article {pmid33110092, year = {2020}, author = {Wunderling, N and Willeit, M and Donges, JF and Winkelmann, R}, title = {Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {5177}, pmid = {33110092}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales.}, }
@article {pmid33106244, year = {2020}, author = {Hess, J and Boodram, LG and Paz, S and Stewart Ibarra, AM and Wasserheit, JN and Lowe, R}, title = {Strengthening the global response to climate change and infectious disease threats.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {371}, number = {}, pages = {m3081}, pmid = {33106244}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; Global Health ; Health Policy ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; }, abstract = {Climate change is emerging as an important driver of disease incidence, and a wait and see approach invites unnecessary risk, write Jeremy Hess and colleagues. Governments, funders, researchers, and practitioners must act now}, }
@article {pmid33105805, year = {2020}, author = {Chu, H and Yang, J}, title = {Their Economy and Our Health: Communicating Climate Change to the Divided American Public.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {33105805}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change/economics ; Environmental Science/*education ; Humans ; *Policy ; Public Health ; *Public Opinion ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses severe economic and public health threats to societies around the world. However, little is known about how selectively emphasizing its impacts on different issues and in different locations influence public engagement in climate change mitigation. Utilizing an experimental survey with adult participants, this study investigates the effect of issue framing and distance framing on risk perception and policy support related to climate change. The impacts of political ideology, environmental value, and belief in climate science on message effect are also examined. Based on the results of ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) and OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression, we found that compared with the economy frame, the public health frame led to greater polarization in risk perception and policy support between liberals and conservatives, and these relationships were mediated by environmental value and belief in climate science. Similarly, distance framing also increased ideological polarization in risk perception and policy support.}, }
@article {pmid33105565, year = {2020}, author = {Tortorella, MM and Di Leo, S and Cosmi, C and Fortes, P and Viccaro, M and Cozzi, M and Pietrapertosa, F and Salvia, M and Romano, S}, title = {A Methodological Integrated Approach to Analyse Climate Change Effects in Agri-Food Sector: The TIMES Water-Energy-Food Module.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {21}, pages = {}, pmid = {33105565}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Agriculture/trends ; *Climate Change ; Food/standards ; *Food Industry/trends ; *Models, Statistical ; Water ; Water Supply/standards ; }, abstract = {The European Union's 2030 climate and energy policy and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development underline the commitment to mitigate climate change and reduce its impacts by supporting sustainable use of resources. This commitment has become stricter in light of the ambitious climate neutrality target set by the European Green Deal for 2050. Water, Energy and Food are the key variables of the "Nexus Thinking" which face the sustainability challenge with a multi-sectoral approach. The aim of the paper is to show the methodological path toward the implementation of an integrated modeling platform based on the Nexus approach and consolidated energy system analysis methods to represent the agri-food system in a circular economy perspective (from the use of water, energy, biomass, and land to food production). The final aim is to support decision-making connected to climate change mitigation. The IEA-The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model generator was used to build up the Basilicata Water, Energy and Food model (TIMES-WEF model), which allows users a comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on the Basilicata agri-food system in terms of land use, yields and water availability and a critical comparison of these indicators in different scenarios. The paper focuses on the construction of the model's Reference Energy and Material System of the TIMES model, which integrates water and agricultural commodities into the energy framework, and on the results obtained through the calibration of the model β version to statistical data on agricultural activities.}, }
@article {pmid33103804, year = {2021}, author = {Kramer, KL and Hackman, J}, title = {Scaling climate change to human behavior predicting good and bad years for Maya farmers.}, journal = {American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {e23524}, doi = {10.1002/ajhb.23524}, pmid = {33103804}, issn = {1520-6300}, support = {AG 19044-01/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Farmers/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Seasons ; *Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Human responses to climate variation have a rich anthropological history. However, much less is known about how people living in small-scale societies perceive climate change, and what climate data are useful in predicting food production at a scale that affects daily lives.<br><br>METHODS: We use longitudinal ethnographic interviews and economic data to first ask what aspects of climate variation affect the agricultural cycle and food production for Yucatec Maya farmers. Sixty years of high-resolution meteorological data and harvest assessments are then used to detect the scale at which climate data predict good and bad crop yields, and to analyze long-term changes in climate variables critical to food production.<br><br>RESULTS: We find that (a) only local, daily precipitation closely fits the climate pattern described by farmers. Other temporal (annual and monthly) scales miss key information about what farmers find important to successful harvests; (b) at both community- and municipal-levels, heavy late-season rains associated with tropical storms have the greatest negative impact on crop yields; and (c) in contrast to long-term patterns from regional and state data, local measures show an increase in rainfall during the late growing season, indicating that fine-grained data are needed to make accurate inferences about climate trends.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the importance to define climate variables at scales appropriate to human behavior. Course-grained annual, monthly, national, and state-level data tell us little about climate attributes pertinent to farmers and food production. However, high-resolution daily, local precipitation data do capture how climate variation shapes food production.}, }
@article {pmid33102663, year = {2020}, author = {Gurung, LJ and Miller, KK and Venn, S and Bryan, BA}, title = {Dataset of non-timber forest products use and impacts of recent climate change in the Upper Madi Watershed, Nepal.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {33}, number = {}, pages = {106404}, pmid = {33102663}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {This dataset presents data collected from household surveys from Upper Madi Watershed of Nepal describing the benefits of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) to people of mountain ecosystems, their perceptions of climate change, and perceived impacts of climate change on NTFPs ecosystem services. The data were collected from 278 households that were randomly selected from the four villages in the watershed during the period September to December 2019. The survey assessed socio-demographic information; collected and utilized NTFPs; perceptions of climate change, and; perceived impacts of climate change on NTFPs ecosystem services. These data are important in understanding the benefits of non-timber forest products in mountain ecosystems and the impacts of climate change as the benefits and impacts are currently not well understood. The data will be helpful in formulation and implementation of adaptation strategies to sustain the supply, protection, and management of NTFPs in mountain ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid33101908, year = {2020}, author = {Aleuy, OA and Kutz, S}, title = {Adaptations, life-history traits and ecological mechanisms of parasites to survive extremes and environmental unpredictability in the face of climate change.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology. Parasites and wildlife}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {308-317}, pmid = {33101908}, issn = {2213-2244}, abstract = {Climate change is increasing weather unpredictability, causing more intense, frequent and longer extreme events including droughts, precipitation, and both heat and cold waves. The performance of parasites, and host-parasite interactions, under these unpredictable conditions, are directly influenced by the ability of parasites to cope with extremes and their capacity to adapt to the new conditions. Here, we review some of the structural, behavioural, life history and ecological characteristics of parasitic nematodes that allow them to persist and adapt to extreme and changing environmental conditions. We focus primarily, but not exclusively, on parasitic nematodes in the Arctic, where temperature extremes are pronounced, climate change is happening most rapidly, and changes in host-parasite interactions are already documented. We discuss how life-history traits, phenotypic plasticity, local adaptation and evolutionary history can influence the short and long term response of parasites to new conditions. A detailed understanding of the complex ecological processes involved in the survival of parasites in extreme and changing conditions is a fundamental step to anticipate the impact of climate change in parasite dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid33101598, year = {2020}, author = {Ndlovu, E and Prinsloo, B and le Roux, T}, title = {Impact of climate change and variability on traditional farming systems: Farmers' perceptions from south-west, semi-arid Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {742}, pmid = {33101598}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Despite annual climate variability threats, traditional farming in semi-arid Zimbabwe remains entrenched in unproductive, rain-fed agricultural practices. Adaptation strategies by farmers are seemingly failing to mitigate climate impacts, as evidenced by annual crop and livestock losses. Matabeleland South Province was a thriving livestock and small grain-producing province in the 1970s. Today, the province relies heavily on humanitarian assistance from government and humanitarian agencies. Through literature review, observations and focus group discussions with 129 farmers, the qualitative study established the perceptions of farmers around climate variability impacts in the past 20 years in Mangwe, Matobo and Gwanda districts in Zimbabwe. The study (1) analysed changes in climate and weather patterns in the past 20 years; (2) analysed climate impacts on traditional farming systems in the past 20 years in Gwanda, Mangwe and Matobo districts in Zimbabwe; and (3) established farmers' perceptions, experiences and their climate adaptive strategies. The findings showed that the farmers experienced annual heat waves, protracted droughts, chaotic rain seasons, frost and floods, which led to environmental degradation. Traditional farming systems or practices have been abandoned in favour of buying and selling and gold panning, among other alternative livelihood options, because of climate-related threats and misconceptions around the subject of climate change. Farmers fail to access timely and comprehensive weather forecasts, resulting in annual crop and livestock losses, as decision-making is compromised. Given that the smallholder farming system sustains the bulk of the population in Matabeleland South Province in Zimbabwe, climate education and capital investment is needed to change traditional farmer perceptions about climate change impacts on the farming practices. Increased climate awareness initiatives, establishment of village-based weather stations and the marrying of traditional farming climate knowledge to modern practices are highly recommended to enhance resilience to climate.}, }
@article {pmid33101046, year = {2020}, author = {Marshall, DJ and McQuaid, CD}, title = {Metabolic Regulation, Oxygen Limitation and Heat Tolerance in a Subtidal Marine Gastropod Reveal the Complexity of Predicting Climate Change Vulnerability.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1106}, pmid = {33101046}, issn = {1664-042X}, abstract = {Predictions for climate vulnerability of ectotherms have focused on performance-enhancing physiology, even though an organism's energetic state can also be balanced by lowering resting maintenance costs. Adaptive metabolic depression (hypometabolism) enables animals to endure food scarcity, and physically extreme and variable environmental conditions. Hypometabolism is common in terrestrial and intertidal marine gastropod species, though this physiology and tolerance of environmental change are poorly understood in subtidal benthic gastropods. We investigated oxygen limitation tolerance, hypometabolism and thermal performance in the subtidal, tropical snail Turritella bacillum. Survival, cardiac activity and oxygen debt repayment were determined when oxygen uptake was limited by gill function impairment (air exposure) or exposure to hypoxic seawater. Thermal performance and tolerance were assessed from survival and cardiac performance when heated. The ability of snails to regulate metabolism during oxygen limitation was demonstrated by their tolerance of air exposure (>36 h) and hypoxia (>16 h), rhythmicity and reversibility of bradycardia, and inconsistent anaerobic compensation. Under acute heating, mean heart rate was temperature-insensitive in water and temperature-dependent in air. Converging or peaking of individual heart rates during heating suggest maximization of thermal performance at 38-39°C, whereas survival and heartbeat flatlining suggest an upper thermal limit exceeding 42°C. Snails survived 16 h in seawater at 38°C. Their metabolic regulation complies with the oxygen-limiting, sediment-burrowing lifestyle of the species. Although a tropical organism, the species' thermal tolerance so far exceeds present habitat temperatures as to question its susceptibility to centennial climate warming. Our findings reveal the importance of knowing the metabolic regulatory capabilities and conserved physiological attributes of species used in climate vulnerability tests. Studies of ectotherm climate vulnerability that identify generalized trends based on physiologically similar animals may be misleading by missing information on physiological diversity.}, }
@article {pmid33099754, year = {2020}, author = {Mahmud, AS and Martinez, PP and He, J and Baker, RE}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: Insights From Current Research and New Directions.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {384-391}, pmid = {33099754}, issn = {2196-5412}, support = {P2C HD073964/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Public Health/statistics &amp; numerical data/*trends ; Vaccine-Preventable Diseases/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Vector Borne Diseases/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Vaccine-preventable diseases remain a major public health concern globally. Climate is a key driver of the dynamics of many infectious diseases, including those that are vaccine preventable. Understanding the impact of climate change on vaccine-preventable diseases is, thus, an important public health research priority. Here, we summarize the recent literature and highlight promising directions for future research.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Vaccine-preventable enteric diseases, such as cholera, exhibit sensitivity to precipitation and flooding events. The predicted increase in extreme weather events as a result of climate change could exacerbate outbreaks of these pathogens. For airborne pathogens, temperature and specific humidity have been shown to be the most important environmental drivers, although the impact of climate change on disease burden and dynamics remains unclear. Finally, the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases are dependent on both temperature and precipitation, and climate change is expected to alter the burden and geographic range of these diseases. However, understanding the interacting effects of multiple factors, including socioeconomic and ecological factors, on the vector-borne disease ecosystem will be a crucial step towards forecasting disease burden under climate change. Recent work has demonstrated associations between climate and transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases. Translating these findings into forecasts under various climate change scenarios will require mechanistic frameworks that account for both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of transmission, and the non-linear effects on disease burden. Future research should also pay greater attention to uncertainty in both the climate modeling processes as well as disease outcomes in the context of vaccine-preventable diseases.}, }
@article {pmid33097842, year = {2019}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Canadian kids sue government over climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-03253-5}, pmid = {33097842}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid33097356, year = {2021}, author = {Calleja-Agius, J and England, K and Calleja, N}, title = {The effect of global warming on mortality.}, journal = {Early human development}, volume = {155}, number = {}, pages = {105222}, pmid = {33097356}, issn = {1872-6232}, mesh = {Aged ; Cold Temperature ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Infant ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {There is a significant relationship between ambient temperature and mortality. In healthy individuals with no underlying co-morbid conditions, there is an efficient heat regulation system which enables the body to effectively handle thermal stress. However, in vulnerable groups, especially in elderly over the age of 65 years, infants and individuals with co-morbid cardiovascular and/or respiratory conditions, there is a deficiency in thermoregulation. When temperatures exceed a certain limit, being cold winter spells or heat waves, there is an increase in the number of deaths. In particular, it has been shown that at temperatures above 27 °C, the daily mortality rate increases more rapidly per degree rise compared to when it drops below 27 °C. This is especially of relevance with the current emergency of global warming. Besides the direct effect of temperature rises on human health, global warming will have a negative impact on primary producers and livestock, leading to malnutrition, which will in turn lead to a myriad of health related issues. This is further exacerbated by environmental pollution. Public health measures that countries should follow should include not only health-related information strategies aiming to reduce the exposure to heat for vulnerable individuals and the community, but improved urban planning and reduction in energy consumption, among many others. This will reduce the carbon footprint and help avert global warming, thus reducing mortality.}, }
@article {pmid33096901, year = {2020}, author = {Adhikari, M and Isaac, EL and Paterson, RRM and Maslin, MA}, title = {A Review of Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Cultivation and Mycotoxigenic Fungi.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {33096901}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {Coffee is one of the most traded commodities in the world. It plays a significant role in the global economy, employing over 125 million people. However, it is possible that this vital crop is threatened by changing climate conditions and fungal infections. This paper reviews how suitable areas for coffee cultivation and the toxigenic fungi species of Aspergillus, Penicillium, and Fusarium will be affected due to climate change. By combining climate models with species distribution models, a number of studies have investigated the future distribution of coffee cultivation. Studies predict that suitable coffee cultivation area could drop by ~50% under representation concentration pathway (RCP) 6.0 by 2050 for both Arabica and Robusta. These findings agree with other studies which also see an altitudinal migration of suitable cultivation areas to cooler regions, but limited scope for latitudinal migration owing to coffee's inability to tolerate seasonal temperature changes. Increased temperatures will see an overall increase in mycotoxin production such as aflatoxins, particularly in mycotoxigenic fungi (e.g., Aspergillus flavus) more suited to higher temperatures. Arabica and Robusta's limited ability to relocate means both species will be grown in less suitable climates, increasing plant stress and making coffee more susceptible to fungal infection and mycotoxins. Information regarding climate change parameters with respect to mycotoxin concentrations in real coffee samples is provided and how the changed climate affects mycotoxins in non-coffee systems is discussed. In a few areas where relocating farms is possible, mycotoxin contamination may decrease due to the "parasites lost" phenomenon. More research is needed to include the effect of mycotoxins on coffee under various climate change scenarios, as currently there is a significant knowledge gap, and only generalisations can be made. Future modelling of coffee cultivation, which includes the influence of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilisation and forest management, is also required; however, all indications show that climate change will have an extremely negative effect on future coffee production worldwide in terms of both a loss of suitable cultivation areas and an increase in mycotoxin contamination.}, }
@article {pmid33094696, year = {2021}, author = {Getson, JM and Sjöstrand, AE and Church, SP and Weiner, R and Hatfield, JL and Prokopy, LS}, title = {Do scientists have a responsibility to provide climate change expertise to mitigation and adaptation strategies? Perspectives from climate professionals.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {169-178}, doi = {10.1177/0963662520966690}, pmid = {33094696}, issn = {1361-6609}, support = {2016-67003-24895//USDA/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {Although the scientific community has reached a consensus that anthropogenic climate change is a severe and pressing issue, climate change remains a contentious debate with the United States public. Through a survey (N = 273), we explored climate professionals' perspectives on their role and responsibility to promote climate change adaptation/mitigation strategies related to agroecosystems. They believed that climate professionals have a social responsibility to provide scientific input to both policymakers and the public. There was strong agreement that media, political, and public support is necessary for development, and near unanimous agreement for implementation, of climate change mitigation/adaptation strategies. This study highlights the climate professionals' perceptions of their responsibility to provide scientific input, but also demonstrates that they believe the responsibility does not rest solely on their shoulders. Further research should explore scientists' perceptions of their and others' policy roles and scientists' interactions with different influencers of adaptation/mitigation policy.}, }
@article {pmid33093942, year = {2020}, author = {Olson, DM and Metz, GAS}, title = {Climate change is a major stressor causing poor pregnancy outcomes and child development.}, journal = {F1000Research}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {33093942}, issn = {2046-1402}, support = {168858//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Allostasis ; Child Development ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Parents ; Pregnancy ; *Pregnancy Outcome/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The climate crisis is the existential threat of our times and for generations to come. This is no longer a threat but a reality affecting us, our children, and the generations that follow. Pregnant mothers, their fetuses, and their children are among those at greatest risk in every population and every jurisdiction. A timely consideration is the health of racialized groups who are particularly vulnerable owing to the confluence of several risk factors that are compounded by climate change. Included among these are Indigenous communities that are the most directly threatened by climate change. This review discusses the main health challenges faced by mothers, fathers, and their children during the climate crisis, focusing on mental health as a causal factor. Exploration of this topic includes the role of prenatal maternal and paternal stresses, allostatic load, and the effect of degradation of the environment and ecosystems on individuals. These will be examined in relation to adverse pregnancy outcomes and altered developmental trajectories of children. The climate crisis is a health threat multiplier that amplifies the health inequities of the most at-risk populations and individuals. It accelerates the increase in allostatic load of those at risk. The path of tragedy begins with an accumulating allostatic load that overwhelms both individual and socio-ecological resilience. This can lead to worse mental health including depression and anxiety and, in the case of pregnant women and their children, more adverse pregnancy outcomes and impaired developmental trajectories for their newborn children. We argue that there is an urgent need to develop new (or re-discover or re-purpose existing) tools that will predict communities and individuals who are experiencing the highest levels of climate-related hazards and intervene to reduce stress and increase resilience in pre-conceptual women and men, pregnant and post-partum women, and their young children.}, }
@article {pmid33093493, year = {2020}, author = {Trubovitz, S and Lazarus, D and Renaudie, J and Noble, PJ}, title = {Marine plankton show threshold extinction response to Neogene climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {5069}, pmid = {33093493}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Acclimatization/physiology ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; Climate Change/*history ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; History, Ancient ; Models, Biological ; Oceans and Seas ; Pacific Ocean ; Rhizaria/*physiology ; Temperature ; Zooplankton/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change is predicted to trigger major shifts in the geographic distribution of marine plankton species. However, it remains unclear whether species will successfully track optimal habitats to new regions, or face extinction. Here we show that one significant zooplankton group, the radiolaria, underwent a severe decline in high latitude species richness presaged by ecologic reorganization during the late Neogene, a time of amplified polar cooling. We find that the majority (71%) of affected species did not relocate to the warmer low latitudes, but went extinct. This indicates that some plankton species cannot track optimal temperatures on a global scale as assumed by ecologic models; instead, assemblages undergo restructuring and extinction once local environmental thresholds are exceeded. This pattern forewarns profound diversity loss of high latitude radiolaria in the near future, which may have cascading effects on the ocean food web and carbon cycle.}, }
@article {pmid33092836, year = {2021}, author = {Pathak, TB and Maskey, ML and Rijal, JP}, title = {Impact of climate change on navel orangeworm, a major pest of tree nuts in California.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {755}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {142657}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142657}, pmid = {33092836}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; California ; Climate Change ; *Moths ; Nuts ; *Pistacia ; }, abstract = {California's agricultural sector is the highest valued agricultural sector in the United States. It is also a global leader in the production of various specialty crops, including three major tree nuts - almond, walnut, and pistachio. These three nut crops accounted for approximately 16% of the state's total agricultural economy. Current and future changes in climate pose many challenges in agriculture and impacts related to increased pest pressure in agriculture due to elevated temperatures are significant. The navel orangeworm, Amyelois transitella (Walker), is the most challenging pest of tree nuts in California and often cause a significant economic loss despite the careful implementation of multiple pest control tactics. Temperature variations can directly affect the developmental rates, behavior, and overall population dynamics of this pest, and it is critically important to understand these dynamics with respect to climate change. The objective of this study was to quantify changes in the timing and number of navel orangeworm generations in almonds, walnuts, and pistachios for the entire Central Valley of California using projections from ten general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios. The results suggest that navel orangeworm is likely to complete its life cycle much faster under climate change due to projected temperature increases. The results also suggest that under future climate change, navel orangeworm can complete one additional generation within the growing season and likely going to pose significant risks to these major nut industries in the future. Quantifying navel orangeworm generations and assessing risks to tree nuts under climate change can help facilitate and strategize integrated pest management (IPM) practices to the sustainability of the production systems by minimizing risks.}, }
@article {pmid33079970, year = {2020}, author = {Piovezan-Borges, AC and Valente-Neto, F and Tadei, WP and Hamada, N and Roque, FO}, title = {Simulated climate change, but not predation risk, accelerates Aedes aegypti emergence in a microcosm experiment in western Amazonia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {e0241070}, pmid = {33079970}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Aedes/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Animals ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Computer Simulation ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Larva/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects individual life-history characteristics and species interactions, including predator-prey interactions. While effects of warming on Aedes aegypti adults are well known, clarity the interactive effects of climate change (temperature and CO2 concentration) and predation risk on the larval stage remains unexplored. In this study, we performed a microcosm experiment simulating temperature and CO2 changes in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, for the year 2100. Simulated climate change scenarios (SCCS) were in accordance with the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Used SCCS were: Control (real-time current conditions in Manaus: average temperature is ~25.76°C ± 0.71°C and ~477.26 ± 9.38 parts per million by volume (ppmv) CO2); Light: increase of ~1,7°C and ~218 ppmv CO2; Intermediate: increase of ~2.4°C and ~446 ppmv CO2; and Extreme: increase of ~4.5°C and ~861 ppmv CO2, all increases were relative to a Control SCCS. Light, Intermediate and Extreme SCCS reproduced, respectively, the B1, A1B, and A2 climatic scenarios predicted by IPCC (2007). We analyzed Aedes aegypti larval survivorship and adult emergence pattern with a factorial design combining predation risk (control and predator presence-Toxorhynchites haemorrhoidalis larvae) and SCCS. Neither SCCS nor predation risk affected Aedes aegypti larval survivorship, but adult emergence pattern was affected by SCCS. Accordingly, our results did not indicate interactive effects of SCCS and predation risk on larval survivorship and emergence pattern of Aedes aegypti reared in SCCS in western Amazonia. Aedes aegypti is resistant to SCCS conditions tested, mainly due to high larval survivorship, even under Extreme SCCS, and warmer scenarios increase adult Aedes aegypti emergence. Considering that Aedes aegypti is a health problem in western Amazonia, an implication of our findings is that the use of predation cues as biocontrol strategies will not provide a viable means of controlling the accelerated adult emergence expected under the IPCC climatic scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid33078088, year = {2020}, author = {Klingelhöfer, D and Müller, R and Braun, M and Brüggmann, D and Groneberg, DA}, title = {Climate change: Does international research fulfill global demands and necessities?.}, journal = {Environmental sciences Europe}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {137}, pmid = {33078088}, issn = {2190-4707}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is safe to be one of the biggest challenges of mankind. Human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels, contribute to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and thus to the pace of climate change. The effects of climate change are already being felt, and the resulting damage will most likely be enormous worldwide. Because global impacts vary widely and will lead to very different national vulnerability to climate impacts, each country, depending on its economic background, has different options to ward off negative impacts. Decisions have to be made to mitigate climate consequences according to the preparedness and the vulnerability of countries against the presumed impacts. This requires a profound scientific basis. To provide sound background information, a bibliometric study was conducted to present global research on climate change using established and specific parameters. Bibliometric standard parameters, established socioeconomic values, and climate change specific indices were used for the analyses. This allowed us to provide an overall picture of the global research pattern not only in terms of general aspects, but also in terms of climate change impacts, its effects and regional differences. For this purpose, we choose representative indices, such as the CO2 emissions for the responsibility of countries, the global climate risk index as a combination value for the different types of damage that countries can expect, the increase in sea level as a specific parameter as a measure of the huge global environmental impacts, and the readiness and vulnerability index for the different circumstances of individual countries under which climate change will take place. We hope to have thus made a comprehensive and representative selection of specific parameters that is sufficient to map the global research landscape. We have supplemented the methodology accordingly.<br><br>RESULTS: In terms of absolute publication numbers, the USA was the leading country, followed by the UK, and China in 3rd place. The steep rise in Chinese publication numbers over time came into view, while their citation numbers are relatively low. Scandinavian countries were leading regarding their publication numbers related to CO2 emission and socioeconomic indices. Only three developing countries stand out in all analyses: Costa Rica, the Fiji Atoll, and Zimbabwe, although it is here that the climate impact will be greatest. A positive correlation between countries' preparedness for the impacts of climate change and their publication numbers could be shown, while the correlation between countries' vulnerability and their publication numbers was negative.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We could show that there exists an inequity between national research efforts according to the publication output and the demands and necessities of countries related to their socioeconomic status. This inequity calls for a rethink, a different approach, and a different policy to improve countries' preparedness and mitigation capacity, which requires the inclusion of the most affected regions of the world in a strengthened international cooperation network.}, }
@article {pmid33077747, year = {2020}, author = {Rhoné, B and Defrance, D and Berthouly-Salazar, C and Mariac, C and Cubry, P and Couderc, M and Dequincey, A and Assoumanne, A and Kane, NA and Sultan, B and Barnaud, A and Vigouroux, Y}, title = {Pearl millet genomic vulnerability to climate change in West Africa highlights the need for regional collaboration.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {5274}, pmid = {33077747}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change is already affecting agro-ecosystems and threatening food security by reducing crop productivity and increasing harvest uncertainty. Mobilizing crop diversity could be an efficient way to mitigate its impact. We test this hypothesis in pearl millet, a nutritious staple cereal cultivated in arid and low-fertility soils in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyze the genomic diversity of 173 landraces collected in West Africa together with an extensive climate dataset composed of metrics of agronomic importance. Mapping the pearl millet genomic vulnerability at the 2050 horizon based on the current genomic-climate relationships, we identify the northern edge of the current areas of cultivation of both early and late flowering varieties as being the most vulnerable to climate change. We predict that the most vulnerable areas will benefit from using landraces that already grow in equivalent climate conditions today. However, such seed-exchange scenarios will require long distance and trans-frontier assisted migrations. Leveraging genetic diversity as a climate mitigation strategy in West Africa will thus require regional collaboration.}, }
@article {pmid33077231, year = {2021}, author = {Li, Z and Li, Q and Wang, J and Feng, Y and Shao, Q}, title = {Corrigendum to "Impacts of projected climate change on runoff in upper reach of Heihe River basin using climate elasticity method and GCMs" [Sci. Total Environ., 716 (2020) 137072].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {766}, number = {}, pages = {142628}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142628}, pmid = {33077231}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid33076987, year = {2020}, author = {Longbottom, J and Caminade, C and Gibson, HS and Weiss, DJ and Torr, S and Lord, JS}, title = {Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {526}, pmid = {33076987}, issn = {1756-3305}, support = {1964851/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/P005888/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/P005888/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/S01375X/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/parasitology ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Trypanosoma brucei gambiense/*physiology ; Trypanosomiasis, African/*epidemiology/parasitology ; Tsetse Flies/parasitology/*physiology ; Vector Borne Diseases/*epidemiology/parasitology ; Weather ; Zimbabwe/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe.<br><br>METHODS: Local weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km &#xd7; 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016.<br><br>RESULTS: We produced estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000-2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (> 1000 m above sea level), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, the results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi Valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe.}, }
@article {pmid33076212, year = {2020}, author = {Czeszczewik, D and Czortek, P and Jaroszewicz, B and Zub, K and Rowiński, P and Walankiewicz, W}, title = {Climate change has cascading effects on tree masting and the breeding performance of a forest songbird in a primeval forest.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {747}, number = {}, pages = {142084}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142084}, pmid = {33076212}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Breeding ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Mice ; Poland ; *Songbirds ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Forest habitats change significantly under the influence of global warming. It is important to predict the effects of these changes, especially in primeval forests which currently represent a small percentage of temperate forests. Such changes often manifest themselves in an acceleration of the frequency of mass seeding of trees, which causes cascading effects in various organisms. We evaluated changes in: tree masts (oak Quercus robur and hornbeam Carpinus betulus), rodent abundance (yellow-necked mouse Apodemus flavicollis), folivorous caterpillar abundance (winter moth Operophtera brumata), and the breeding success of a cavity-nesting songbird (collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis) in over a 30-year period in the Białowieża Forest (E Poland). We also analysed temperature, precipitation and snow cover to determine the effects of weather on each trophic level. Previous studies have exposed the indirect effect of tree masting on songbirds breeding in open nests. Our study uniquely highlights the relationships between trees, rodents, caterpillars, and a cavity-nesting bird. Precipitation was positively correlated with the fructification of trees, abundance of caterpillars, and the breeding losses of flycatchers (in July, August, October in the previous year, in May in the current year, respectively). We found that along with the changing climate, the frequency of mast years of oak increased, which caused an increasing frequency of rodent outbreaks. The abundance of mice was positively correlated with the predation on flycatcher broods (current year) and negatively - with the abundance of caterpillars (following year). We predict that current global trends in climate change will have a negative impact on the flycatcher due to the cascading effects from the above species. Bearing in mind that F. albicollis is one of the most numerous bird species, it can be assumed that more frequent masting will result in substantial changes in the entire bird assemblage, and presumably also other groups of animals.}, }
@article {pmid33073861, year = {2021}, author = {Jaatinen, K and Westerbom, M and Norkko, A and Mustonen, O and Koons, DN}, title = {Detrimental impacts of climate change may be exacerbated by density-dependent population regulation in blue mussels.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {3}, pages = {562-573}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13377}, pmid = {33073861}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Mytilus edulis ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {The climate on our planet is changing and the range distributions of organisms are shifting in response. In aquatic environments, species might not be able to redistribute poleward or into deeper water when temperatures rise because of barriers, reduced light availability, altered water chemistry or any combination of these. How species respond to climate change may depend on physiological adaptability, but also on the population dynamics of the species. Density dependence is a ubiquitous force that governs population dynamics and regulates population growth, yet its connections to the impacts of climate change remain little known, especially in marine studies. Reductions in density below an environmental carrying capacity may cause compensatory increases in demographic parameters and population growth rate, hence masking the impacts of climate change on populations. On the other hand, climate-driven deterioration of conditions may reduce environmental carrying capacities, making compensation less likely and populations more susceptible to the effects of stochastic processes. Here we investigate the effects of climate change on Baltic blue mussels using a 17-year dataset on population density. Using a Bayesian modelling framework, we investigate the impacts of climate change, assess the magnitude and effects of density dependence, and project the likelihood of population decline by the year 2030. Our findings show negative impacts of warmer and less saline waters, both outcomes of climate change. We also show that density dependence increases the likelihood of population decline by subjecting the population to the detrimental effects of stochastic processes (i.e. low densities where random bad years can cause local extinction, negating the possibility for random good years to offset bad years). We highlight the importance of understanding, and accounting for both density dependence and climate variation when predicting the impact of climate change on keystone species, such as the Baltic blue mussel.}, }
@article {pmid33073750, year = {2020}, author = {John, CC}, title = {Something Big that Matters: The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene's Commitment to Combat Climate Change.}, journal = {The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene}, volume = {103}, number = {5}, pages = {1751-1752}, pmid = {33073750}, issn = {1476-1645}, mesh = {*Carbon Footprint ; Climate Change ; Hygiene ; Organizations ; *Tropical Medicine ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid33072275, year = {2020}, author = {Jones, AR and Jessop, TS and Ariefiandy, A and Brook, BW and Brown, SC and Ciofi, C and Benu, YJ and Purwandana, D and Sitorus, T and Wigley, TML and Fordham, DA}, title = {Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World's largest lizard from global warming.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {19}, pages = {10492-10507}, pmid = {33072275}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis) is an endangered, island-endemic species with a naturally restricted distribution. Despite this, no previous studies have attempted to predict the effects of climate change on this iconic species. We used extensive Komodo dragon monitoring data, climate, and sea-level change projections to build spatially explicit demographic models for the Komodo dragon. These models project the species' future range and abundance under multiple climate change scenarios. We ran over one million model simulations with varying model parameters, enabling us to incorporate uncertainty introduced from three main sources: (a) structure of global climate models, (b) choice of greenhouse gas emission trajectories, and (c) estimates of Komodo dragon demographic parameters. Our models predict a reduction in range-wide Komodo dragon habitat of 8%-87% by 2050, leading to a decrease in habitat patch occupancy of 25%-97% and declines of 27%-99% in abundance across the species' range. We show that the risk of extirpation on the two largest protected islands in Komodo National Park (Rinca and Komodo) was lower than other island populations, providing important safe havens for Komodo dragons under global warming. Given the severity and rate of the predicted changes to Komodo dragon habitat patch occupancy (a proxy for area of occupancy) and abundance, urgent conservation actions are required to avoid risk of extinction. These should, as a priority, be focused on managing habitat on the islands of Komodo and Rinca, reflecting these islands' status as important refuges for the species in a warming world. Variability in our model projections highlights the importance of accounting for uncertainties in demographic and environmental parameters, structural assumptions of global climate models, and greenhouse gas emission scenarios when simulating species metapopulation dynamics under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33072269, year = {2020}, author = {Butler, CJ and Larson, M}, title = {Climate change winners and losers: The effects of climate change on five palm species in the Southeastern United States.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {19}, pages = {10408-10425}, pmid = {33072269}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Palms (Arecaceae) are a relatively speciose family and provide materials for food, construction, and handicraft, especially in the tropics. They are frequently used as paleo-indicators for megathermal climates, and therefore, it is logical to predict that palms will benefit from predicted warmer temperatures under anthropogenic climate change. We created species distribution models to explore the projected ranges of five widespread southeastern North American palm species (Rhapidophyllum hystrix, Sabal etonia, Sabal minor, Sabal palmetto, and Serenoa repens) under four climate change scenarios through 2070. We project that the amount of habitat with >50% suitability for S. etonia will decline by a median of 50% by 2070, while the amount of habitat with >50% suitability S. minor will decline by a median of 97%. In contrast, the amount of suitable habitat for Rhapidophyllum hystrix will remain stable, while the amount of suitable habitat for Serenoa repens will slightly increase. The projected distribution for S. palmetto will increase substantially, by a median of approximately 21% across all scenarios. The centroid of the range of each species will shift generally north at a median rate of 23.5 km/decade. These five palm species have limited dispersal ability and require a relatively long time to mature and set fruit. Consequently, it is likely that the change in the distribution of these palms will lag behind the projected changes in climate. However, Arecaceae can modify physiological responses to heat and drought, which may permit these palms to persist as local conditions become increasingly inappropriate. Nonetheless, this plasticity is unlikely to indefinitely prevent local extinctions.}, }
@article {pmid33070933, year = {2020}, author = {Des, M and Martínez, B and deCastro, M and Viejo, RM and Sousa, MC and Gómez-Gesteira, M}, title = {The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of habitat-forming macroalgae in the Rías Baixas.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {161}, number = {}, pages = {105074}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105074}, pmid = {33070933}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Phaeophyceae ; *Seaweed ; }, abstract = {In the current scenario of climate change characterized by a generalized warming, many species are facing local extinctions in areas with conditions near their thermal tolerance threshold. At present, the southern limit of the geographical distribution of several habitat-forming algae of cold-temperate affinities is located in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula, and the Rías Baixas may be acting as contemporary refugia at the range edge. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future changes induced by ocean warming in this area that may induce changes in macroalgae populations. The Delft3D-Flow model forced with climatic data was used to calculate July-August sea surface temperature (SST) for the present (1999-2018) and for the far future (2080-2099). Mean daily SST was used to develop and calibrate a mechanistic geographical distribution model based on the thermal survival threshold of two intertidal habitat-forming macroalgae, namely Himanthalia elongata (L.) S.F.Gray and Bifurcaria bifurcata R. Ross. Results show that H. elongata will become extinct in the Rías Baixas by the end of the century, while B. bifurcata will persist and may occupy potential free space left by the decline in H. elongata.}, }
@article {pmid33070397, year = {2021}, author = {Ribeiro, K and Pacheco, FS and Ferreira, JW and de Sousa-Neto, ER and Hastie, A and Krieger Filho, GC and Alvalá, PC and Forti, MC and Ometto, JP}, title = {Tropical peatlands and their contribution to the global carbon cycle and climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {489-505}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15408}, pmid = {33070397}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {0711/2018//Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior (CAPES)/ ; 15/24201-0//S&#xe3;o Paulo Research Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Soil ; South America ; }, abstract = {Peatlands are carbon-rich ecosystems that cover 185-423 million hectares (Mha) of the earth's surface. The majority of the world's peatlands are in temperate and boreal zones, whereas tropical ones cover only a total area of 90-170 Mha. However, there are still considerable uncertainties in C stock estimates as well as a lack of information about depth, bulk density and carbon accumulation rates. The incomplete data are notable especially in tropical peatlands located in South America, which are estimated to have the largest area of peatlands in the tropical zone. This paper displays the current state of knowledge surrounding tropical peatlands and their biophysical characteristics, distribution and carbon stock, role in the global climate, the impacts of direct human disturbances on carbon accumulation rates and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on the new peat extension and depth data, we estimate that tropical peatlands store 152-288 Gt C, or about half of the global peatland emitted carbon. We discuss the knowledge gaps in research on distribution, depth, C stock and fluxes in these ecosystems which play an important role in the global carbon cycle and risk releasing large quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere (CO2 and CH4) when subjected to anthropogenic interferences (e.g., drainage and deforestation). Recent studies show that although climate change has an impact on the carbon fluxes of these ecosystems, the direct anthropogenic disturbance may play a greater role. The future of these systems as carbon sinks will depend on advancing current scientific knowledge and incorporating local understanding to support policies geared toward managing and conserving peatlands in vulnerable regions, such as the Amazon where recent records show increased forest fires and deforestation.}, }
@article {pmid33069704, year = {2021}, author = {Rahman, MM and Bodrud-Doza, M and Shammi, M and Md Towfiqul Islam, AR and Moniruzzaman Khan, AS}, title = {COVID-19 pandemic, dengue epidemic, and climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh: Scenario assessment for strategic management and policy implications.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {192}, number = {}, pages = {110303}, pmid = {33069704}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Bangladesh/epidemiology ; *COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Policy ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts also struck by the COVID-19 pandemic. The lockdown measures were ineffective with no sign of flattening the curve. Therefore, the high risk of transmission is evident with an increasing number of affected people. Under this circumstance, a multiple hazards scenario can be developed in this country due to climatic hazards such as cyclones, floods, landslides, heat waves, and the outbreak of infectious diseases such as dengue, cholera, and diarrhoea. The country experiences simultaneously the global pandemic, exceptionally prolonged flood along with the recovery stage from the damages due to the cyclone (Amphan). Therefore, these multiple factors have been putting pressure on losing millions of homes, livelihoods, and agricultural crops. This study aimed to assess the potential impact of a simultaneous strike of climatic hazards and infectious disease outbreaks and their possible strategic management in Bangladesh under different scenarios. A mixed methodological approach was followed in this study including a questionnaire survey, in-depth discussion with experts, and extensive literature review to assess the multi-hazard scenario in a resource-limited setting with high population density. A set of statistical techniques were used to analyze the responses (n = 1590) from different social groups (healthcare professionals, academicians, students, Government and NGO officials, and businessman) under three scenarios. The results revealed the high possibility of aggravating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic if there is a climatic hazard such as flood, cyclone have appeared. The majority of the respondents agreed that the situation will become more devastating if there is another outbreak of diseases such as dengue, cholera, and diarrhoea. The poor and fragile healthcare system of this country cannot bear such unprecedented pressure. The lack of risk assessment and communication, lack of sectoral coordination might restrict the contingency plan of the government. Therefore, considering the unprecedented worst cases a stringent strategic plan for emergency response, short term and long-term management should have to be formulated. Resilience building through proactive planning and implementation of integrated, inclusive and sustainable strategies will be effective to ensure the health and socio-economic security for multi-hazard threats in the country.}, }
@article {pmid33069514, year = {2021}, author = {Zammit, C and Torzhenskaya, N and Ozarkar, PD and Calleja Agius, J}, title = {Neurological disorders vis-à-vis climate change.}, journal = {Early human development}, volume = {155}, number = {}, pages = {105217}, doi = {10.1016/j.earlhumdev.2020.105217}, pmid = {33069514}, issn = {1872-6232}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Nervous System Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the biggest challenges humanity is facing in the 21st century. Two recognized sequelae of climate change are global warming and air pollution. The gradual increase in ambient temperature, coupled with elevated pollution levels have a devastating effect on our health, potentially contributing to the increased rate and severity of numerous neurological disorders. The main aim of this review paper is to shed some light on the association between the phenomena of global warming and air pollution, and two of the most common and debilitating neurological conditions: stroke and neurodegenerative disorders. Extreme ambient temperatures induce neurological impairment and increase stroke incidence and mortality. Global warming does not participate in the etiology of neurodegenerative disorders, but it exacerbates symptoms of dementia, Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's Disease (PD). A very close link exists between accumulated levels of air pollutants (principally particulate matter), and the incidence of ischemic rather than hemorrhagic strokes. People exposed to air pollutants have a higher risk of developing dementia and AD, but not PD. Oxidative stress, changes in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular haemodynamics, excitotoxicity, microglial activation, and cellular apoptosis, all play a central role in the overlap of the effect of climate change on neurological disorders. The complex interactions between global warming and air pollution, and their intricate effect on the nervous system, imply that future policies aimed to mitigate climate change must address these two challenges in unison.}, }
@article {pmid33068259, year = {2020}, author = {An, R and Shen, J and Li, Y and Bandaru, S}, title = {Projecting the Influence of Global Warming on Physical Activity Patterns: a Systematic Review.}, journal = {Current obesity reports}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {550-561}, doi = {10.1007/s13679-020-00406-w}, pmid = {33068259}, issn = {2162-4968}, mesh = {*Exercise ; *Forecasting ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This study systematically identified and synthesized empirical data-driven modeling studies that projected the future influence of global warming on people's physical activity patterns.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: A total of ten studies met the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. Global warming, in general, was predicted to be associated with a net increase in active commuting and leisure-time physical activity. However, the specific relationship between climate change and future physical activity patterns was expected to vary by the periods of prediction, geographical locations, population subgroups, and seasons. Moreover, the positive association between global warming and physical activity could level off or be reversed once reaching a temperature threshold. Preliminary evidence suggested a net increase in physical activity by mid- to late-twenty-first century owing to global warming. Future studies should refine the projections by taking into account the indirect effect of global warming through induced natural and human events, and assess effective countermeasures to mitigate the negative impact of global warming on vulnerable population subgroups.}, }
@article {pmid33068183, year = {2020}, author = {Neves, GL and Barbosa, MAGA and Anjinho, PDS and Guimarães, TT and das Virgens Filho, JS and Mauad, FF}, title = {Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on streamflow through hydrological simulation and under downscaling scenarios: case study in a watershed in southeastern Brazil.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {11}, pages = {707}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08671-x}, pmid = {33068183}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hydrology ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Among the problems related to water security, the effects of climate change on water availability stand out. Researchers have used hydrological models integrated with climate models in order to predict the streamflow behaviour in different hydrographic basins. This work aimed to analyse future climate scenarios for the Ribeirão do Lobo River Basin, located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R was used in the simulation of climate data, which were used as input data in the hydrological model SMAP, after it was calibrated and validated for the study site. In all, five future scenarios were generated, with scenarios A, B, C and D projected based on the 5th report of the IPCC and scenario E based on the trend of climate data in the region. Among the scenarios generated, scenario D, which considers an increase of 4.8 °C in air temperature and a reduction of 10% in rainfall, is responsible for the worst water condition in the basin and can reduce up to 72.41% of the average flow and up to 55.50%, 54.18% and 38.17% of the low flow parameters Q90%, Q95% and Q7,10, respectively, until the end of the twenty-first century. However, the E scenario also becomes a matter of concern, since it was responsible for greater increases in temperature and greater reductions in rainfall and, consequently, more drastic monthly reductions in streamflow, which may negatively impact water resources and affect the various uses of water in the Ribeirão do Lobo River Basin.}, }
@article {pmid33067869, year = {2021}, author = {Scharsack, JP and Wieczorek, B and Schmidt-Drewello, A and Büscher, J and Franke, F and Moore, A and Branca, A and Witten, A and Stoll, M and Bornberg-Bauer, E and Wicke, S and Kurtz, J}, title = {Climate change facilitates a parasite's host exploitation via temperature-mediated immunometabolic processes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {94-107}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15402}, pmid = {33067869}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {SCHA 1257/2-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Cestode Infections ; Climate Change ; *Fish Diseases ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; *Parasites ; *Smegmamorpha ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global climate change can influence organismic interactions like those between hosts and parasites. Rising temperatures may exacerbate the exploitation of hosts by parasites, especially in ectothermic systems. The metabolic activity of ectotherms is strongly linked to temperature and generally increases when temperatures rise. We hypothesized that temperature change in combination with parasite infection interferes with the host's immunometabolism. We used a parasite, the avian cestode Schistocephalus solidus, which taps most of its resources from the metabolism of an ectothermic intermediate host, the three-spined stickleback. We experimentally exposed sticklebacks to this parasite, and studied liver transcriptomes 50 days after infection at 13°C and 24°C, to assess their immunometabolic responses. Furthermore, we monitored fitness parameters of the parasite and examined immunity and body condition of the sticklebacks at 13°C, 18°C and 24°C after 36, 50 and 64 days of infection. At low temperatures (13°C), S. solidus growth was constrained, presumably also by the more active stickleback's immune system, thus delaying its infectivity for the final host to 64 days. Warmer temperature (18°C and 24°C) enhanced S. solidus growth, and it became infective to the final host already after 36 days. Overall, S. solidus produced many more viable offspring after development at elevated temperatures. In contrast, stickleback hosts had lower body conditions, and their immune system was less active at warm temperature. The stickleback's liver transcriptome revealed that mainly metabolic processes were differentially regulated between temperatures, whereas immune genes were not strongly affected. Temperature effects on gene expression were strongly enhanced in infected sticklebacks, and even in exposed-but-not-infected hosts. These data suggest that the parasite exposure in concert with rising temperature, as to be expected with global climate change, shifted the host's immunometabolism, thus providing nutrients for the enormous growth of the parasite and, at the same time suppressing immune defence.}, }
@article {pmid33067550, year = {2020}, author = {Simon, E and Canarini, A and Martin, V and Séneca, J and Böckle, T and Reinthaler, D and Pötsch, EM and Piepho, HP and Bahn, M and Wanek, W and Richter, A}, title = {Microbial growth and carbon use efficiency show seasonal responses in a multifactorial climate change experiment.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {584}, pmid = {33067550}, issn = {2399-3642}, support = {P 28572/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Microbiology ; *Seasons ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Microbial growth and carbon use efficiency (CUE) are central to the global carbon cycle, as microbial remains form soil organic matter. We investigated how future global changes may affect soil microbial growth, respiration, and CUE. We aimed to elucidate the soil microbial response to multiple climate change drivers across the growing season and whether effects of multiple global change drivers on soil microbial physiology are additive or interactive. We measured soil microbial growth, CUE, and respiration at three time points in a field experiment combining three levels of temperature and atmospheric CO2, and a summer drought. Here we show that climate change-driven effects on soil microbial physiology are interactive and season-specific, while the coupled response of growth and respiration lead to stable microbial CUE (average CUE = 0.39). These results suggest that future research should focus on microbial growth across different seasons to understand and predict effects of global changes on soil carbon dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid33067547, year = {2020}, author = {Roberts, SM and Boustany, AM and Halpin, PN}, title = {Substrate-dependent fish have shifted less in distribution under climate change.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {586}, pmid = {33067547}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Fishes ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Analyses of the impacts of climate change on fish species have primarily considered dynamic oceanographic variables that are the output of predictive models, yet fish species distributions are determined by much more than just variables such as ocean temperature. Functionally diverse species are differentially influenced by oceanographic as well as physiographic variables such as bottom substrate, thereby influencing their ability to shift distributions. Here, we show that fish species distributions that are more associated with bottom substrate than other dynamic environmental variables have shifted significantly less over the last 30 years than species whose distributions are associated with bottom salinity. Correspondingly, species whose distributions are primarily determined by bottom temperature or ocean salinity have shifted their mean centroid and southern and northern range boundaries significantly more than species whose distributions are determined by substrate or depth. The influence of oceanographic versus static variables differs by species functional group, as benthic species distributions are more associated with substrate and they have shifted significantly less than pelagic species whose distributions are primarily associated with ocean temperatures. In conclusion, benthic fish, that are more influenced by substrate, may prove much less likely to shift distributions under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33065323, year = {2021}, author = {Bonnail, E and Borrero-Santiago, AR and Nordtug, T and Øverjordet, IB and Krause, DF and Ardelan, MV}, title = {Climate change mitigation effects: How do potential CO2 leaks from a sub-seabed storage site in the Norwegian Sea affect Astarte sp. bivalves?.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {264}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {128552}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2020.128552}, pmid = {33065323}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; Geologic Sediments ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seawater ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis/toxicity ; }, abstract = {Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one of the most promising mitigation strategies for reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere and may substantially help to decelerate global warming. There is an increasing demand for CCS sites. Nevertheless, there is a lack of knowledge of the environmental risk associated with potential leakage of CO2 from the storage sites; and even more, what happens when the seepage stops. Can the environment return to the initial equilibrium? Potential effects on native macrofauna were studied under a scenario of a 50-day CO2 leakage, and the subsequent leak closure. To accomplish the objective, Trondheim Fjord sediments and clams were exposed to an acidified environment (pH 6.9) at 29 atm for 7 weeks followed by a 14-day recovery at normal seawater conditions (pH 8.0, 29 atm). Growth and survival of clams exposed to pressure (29 atm) and reduced pH (6.9) did not significantly differ from control clams kept at 1 atm in natural seawater. Furthermore, bioaccumulation of elements in the soft tissue of clams did not register significant variations for most of the analysed elements (Cd, Cr, Pb, and Ti), while other elements (As, Cu, Fe, Ni) had decreasing concentrations in tissues under acidified conditions in contrast to Na and Mg, which registered an uptake (Ku) of 111 and 9.92 μg g[-1]dw d[-1], respectively. This Ku may be altered due to the stress induced by acidification; and the element concentration being released from sediments was not highly affected at that pH. Therefore, a 1 unit drop in pH at the seafloor for several weeks does not appear to pose a risk for the clams.}, }
@article {pmid33064786, year = {2020}, author = {Frei, T}, title = {Climate change in Switzerland: Impact on hazel, birch, and grass pollen on the basis of half a century of pollen records (1969 - 2018).}, journal = {Allergologie select}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {69-75}, pmid = {33064786}, issn = {2512-8957}, abstract = {As indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human activities are estimated to have caused ~ 1.0 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels. The impact of this global warming is diverse and pertains also plant biology. The start of the pollen season as well as the observed quantities of pollen have been considered indicators of the impact of climate change. Switzerland has one of the longest pollen time series now - more than half a century. It has been tested whether the impact of climate change is robust by checking with this long time series of different pollen like hazel, birch, and grass as prominent representatives of triggers of hay fever. The results indicate that based on a time series of 50 years, the pollen seasons of hazel, birch, and grass started earlier as the temperature increased. Comparing the annual amount of pollen, a relevant increase is only observed for hazel. However, it must be considered that in the observed 50 years there was a land use change from grass land to built-up land due to the increase of population, and yet certain pollen counts increased considerably.}, }
@article {pmid33060843, year = {2021}, author = {Borg, MA and Bi, P}, title = {The impact of climate change on kidney health.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Nephrology}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {294-295}, pmid = {33060843}, issn = {1759-507X}, mesh = {Acute Kidney Injury/etiology ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Health Care Costs ; Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome/etiology ; Humans ; Kidney Diseases/economics/*etiology ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid33059212, year = {2020}, author = {Chapman, EJ and Byron, CJ and Lasley-Rasher, R and Lipsky, C and Stevens, JR and Peters, R}, title = {Effects of climate change on coastal ecosystem food webs: Implications for aquaculture.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {162}, number = {}, pages = {105103}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105103}, pmid = {33059212}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; *Food Chain ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems provide important ecosystem services for millions of people. Climate change is modifying coastal ecosystem food web structure and function and threatens these essential ecosystem services. We used a combination of two new and one existing ecosystem food web models and altered scenarios that are possible with climate change to quantify the impacts of climate change on ecosystem stability in three coastal bays in Maine, United States. We also examined the impact of climate change on bivalve fisheries and aquaculture. Our modeled scenarios explicitly considered the predicted effects of future climatic change and human intervention and included: 1) the influence of increased terrestrial dissolved organic carbon loading on phytoplankton biomass; 2) benthic community change driven by synergisms between climate change, historical overfishing, and increased species invasion; and 3) altered trophic level energy transfer driven by ocean warming and acidification. The effects of climate change strongly negatively influenced ecosystem energy flow and ecosystem stability and negatively affected modeled bivalve carrying capacity in each of our models along the Maine coast of the eastern United States. Our results suggest that the interconnected nature of ecosystem food webs make them extremely vulnerable to synergistic effects of climate change. To better inform fisheries and aquaculture management, the effects of climate change must be explicitly incorporated.}, }
@article {pmid33058061, year = {2021}, author = {Bakhsh, K and Latif, A and Ali, R and Yasin, MA}, title = {Relationship between adaptation to climate change and provincial government expenditure in Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {8384-8391}, pmid = {33058061}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Health Expenditures ; Pakistan ; State Government ; }, abstract = {Public expenditures on adaptation to climate change have direct effects on budgets of governments. Such direct impacts on government budgetary allocation have been analyzed in the developed countries and very little research is available considering highly vulnerable and exposed developing countries which are facing huge threats of climate change. The current study is designed to bridge this information gap by examining the effects of climate change adaptation on public expenditures in Pakistan employing provincial level data over the period of 1990-2016. Adaptation expenditures included both overall government expenditures and expenditures on communal amenities and housing. In addition to a fixed effects estimation, we employed long difference model to analyze the impact in the long run. Results indicated that variations in temperature and rainfall were significantly related with public expenditures. Short run and long run scenarios showed that rising temperature caused an increase in public expenditures. The effect of rainfall on total public expenditure was positive and statistically significant while rainfall and expenditure incurred on communal amenities and housing were negatively related in the long run. The study posits important policy implications.}, }
@article {pmid33057617, year = {2020}, author = {Gould, JR and Warden, ML and Slager, BH and Murphy, TC}, title = {Host Overwintering Phenology and Climate Change Influence the Establishment of Tetrastichus planipennisi Yang (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), a Larval Parasitoid Introduced for Biocontrol of the Emerald Ash Borer.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {113}, number = {6}, pages = {2641-2649}, doi = {10.1093/jee/toaa217}, pmid = {33057617}, issn = {1938-291X}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Coleoptera ; *Fraxinus ; Larva ; Pest Control, Biological ; *Wasps ; }, abstract = {Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is one of the most serious forest pests in the United States. Ongoing research indicates that establishment of larval parasitoids depends upon the season-long availability of host stages susceptible to parasitism. We monitored emerald ash borer overwintering stages at 90 sites across 22 states to: 1) produce a model of the percentage of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae; 2) link that model to establishment of Tetrastichus planipennisi; and 3) explore changes to our model under climate change scenarios. Accumulated growing degree days (GDD) is an important predictor of the proportion of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae (1-4 instar larvae under the bark; available to parasitoids emerging in spring) versus J-larvae (fourth-instar larvae in pupal chambers in the outer wood; unavailable to parasitoids). From north to south, the availability of non-J emerald ash borer larvae in the spring decreases as accumulated GDD increases. In areas where the model predicted >46-75%, >30-46%, >13-30%, or ≤13% of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae, the probability of establishment of T. planipennisi was 92%, 67%, 57%, and 21%, respectively. We determined that 13% of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae was the lowest threshold for expected T. planipennisi establishment. Additional modeling predicts that under climate change, establishment of T. planipennisi will be most affected in the Central United States, with areas that are currently suitable becoming unsuitable. Our results provide a useful tool for the emerald ash borer biological control program on how to economically and successfully deploy emerald ash borer biological control agents.}, }
@article {pmid33050582, year = {2020}, author = {Zhao, Y and Guo, J and Bao, C and Liang, C and Jain, HK}, title = {Knowledge Graph Analysis of Human Health Research Related to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {33050582}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Bibliometrics ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Pattern Recognition, Automated ; Publications ; Research ; }, abstract = {In order to explore the development status, knowledge base, research hotspots, and future research directions related to the impacts of climate change on human health, a systematic bibliometric analysis of 6719 published articles from 2003 to 2018 in the Web of Science was performed. Using data analytics tools such as HistCite and CiteSpace, the time distribution, spatial distribution, citations, and research hotspots were analyzed and visualized. The analysis revealed the development status of the research on the impacts of climate change on human health and analyzed the research hotspots and future development trends in this field, providing important knowledge support for researchers in this field.}, }
@article {pmid33050293, year = {2020}, author = {Zamora, S and Sandoval-Herazo, LC and Ballut-Dajud, G and Del Ángel-Coronel, OA and Betanzo-Torres, EA and Marín-Muñiz, JL}, title = {Carbon Fluxes and Stocks by Mexican Tropical Forested Wetland Soils: A Critical Review of Its Role for Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {33050293}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Mexico ; *Soil ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Wetland soils are important stores of soil carbon (C) in the biosphere, and play an important role in global carbon cycles in the response strategy to climate change. However, there areknowledge gaps in our understanding of the quantity and distribution in tropical regions. Specifically, Mexican wetlands have not been considered in global carbon budgets or carbon balances for a number of reasons, such as: (1) the lack of data, (2) Spanish publications have not been selected, or (3) because such balances are mainly made in the English language. This study analyzes the literature regarding carbon stocks, sequestration and fluxes in Mexican forested wetlands (Forest-W). Soil carbon stocks of 8, 24.5 and 40.1 kg cm[-2] were detected for flooded palms, mangroves, and freshwater or swamps (FW) wetland soils, respectively, indicating that FW soils are the Forest-W with more potential for carbon sinks (p = 0.023), compared to mangroves and flooded palm soils. While these assessments of carbon sequestration were ranged from 36 to 920 g-C m[-2] year[-1], C emitted as methane was also tabulated (0.6-196 g-C m[-2] year[-1]). Subtracting the C emitted of the C sequestered, 318.2 g-C m[-2] year[-1] were obtained. Such data revealed that Forest-W function is mainly as carbon sink, and not C source. This review can help to inform practitioners in future decisions regarding sustainable projects, restoration, conservation or creation of wetlands. Finally, it is concluded that Forest-W could be key ecosystems in strategies addressing the mitigation of climate change through carbon storage. However, new studies in this research line and public policies that protect these essential carbon sinks are necessary in order to, hopefully, elaborate global models to make more accurate predictions about future climate.}, }
@article {pmid33049525, year = {2021}, author = {Shi, S and Yu, J and Wang, F and Wang, P and Zhang, Y and Jin, K}, title = {Quantitative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation changes over multiple time scales on the Loess Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {755}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {142419}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142419}, pmid = {33049525}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Vegetation is a crucial component of terrestrial ecosystems, and its changes are driven mainly by a combination of climate change and human activities. This paper aims to reveal the relationship between vegetation and climate change by using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and to find the cause of vegetation change by performing residual analysis on the Loess Plateau during the period from 2000 to 2016. The results showed that the NDVI on the Loess Plateau exhibited an increase of 0.086 per decade, and an increasing trend was observed across 94.86% of the total area. The relationship between the NDVI and SPEI was mainly positive, and the correlation increased as the time scale of the SPEI lengthened, indicating that long-term water availability was the major climate factor affecting vegetation growth. Residual analysis indicated that climate change was responsible for 45.78% of NDVI variation, while human activities were responsible for 54.22%. In areas with degraded vegetation, the relative roles of climate change and human activities were 28.11% and 72.89%, respectively. In addition, the relative role of climate change increased with an increase in the time scales, implying that the long-term NDVI trend was more sensitive to climate change then the short-term trend. The results of this study are expected to enhance our understanding of vegetation changes under climate change and human activities and provide a scientific basis for future ecological restoration in arid regions.}, }
@article {pmid33048352, year = {2021}, author = {Srinivasan, U and Wilcove, DS}, title = {Interactive impacts of climate change and land-use change on the demography of montane birds.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {102}, number = {1}, pages = {e03223}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.3223}, pmid = {33048352}, issn = {1939-9170}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Humans ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Climate change and habitat degradation are amongst the two greatest threats to biodiversity. Together, they can interact to imperil species. However, how climate change and land-use change jointly affect the demographic vital rates that underpin population viability remains unknown. Here, using long-term data on birds from the increasingly degraded and rapidly warming Himalayas, we show that survival trends over time are linked to species' elevational ranges in primary, but not in selectively logged forest. In primary forest, populations at their cold-edge elevational range limit show increases in survival rates over time, whereas those at their warm-edge elevational range limit suffer survival declines. This pattern is consistent with species tracking favorable climatic conditions over time, leading to improved demographic outcomes at progressively higher elevations with climate change, which in turn lead to upslope range shifts. In logged forest, however, survival rates remain relatively constant over time. This suggests that, in response to climate change in the long term, individuals of the same species can maintain demographic vital rates in higher-elevation primary forest, but not in logged forest. This is the first demonstration of how two of the most disruptive anthropogenic influences on biodiversity interact to threaten survivorship in natural populations. Ignoring interactions between climate change and land-use change can potentially undermine accurate forecasting of the future of species in an increasingly warm and degraded world. Importantly, large tracts of well-protected primary forests across Earth's tropical elevational gradients may be essential to enable tropical montane species to persist in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid33048318, year = {2020}, author = {Balsari, S and Dresser, C and Leaning, J}, title = {Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {404-414}, pmid = {33048318}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Human Migration/statistics &amp; numerical data/*trends ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Social Problems/prevention &amp; control ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change is expected to displace vast populations from rural to urban areas, and when life in the urban centers becomes untenable, many will continue their onward migration elsewhere (Wennersten and Robbins 2017; Rigaud et al. 2018). It is now accepted that the changing climate will be a threat multiplier, will exacerbate the need or decision to migrate, and will disproportionately affect large already vulnerable sections of humanity. Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth's surface mainly in the Sahara. We find that the post-World War II regime designed to receive European migrants has failed to address population movement in the latter half of the twentieth century fueled by economic want, globalization, opening (and then closing) borders, civil strife, and war. Key stakeholders are in favor of using existing instruments to support a series of local, regional, and international arrangements to protect environmental migrants, most of whom will not cross international borders. The proposal for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention has largely come from academia and NGOs. Migration is now recognized not only as a consequence of instability but as an adaptation strategy to the changing climate. Migration must be anticipated as a certainty, and thereby planned for and supported.}, }
@article {pmid33048051, year = {2020}, author = {Gross, M}, title = {Disease in the times of climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {30}, number = {19}, pages = {R1104-R1106}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2020.09.039}, pmid = {33048051}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Atmosphere ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Disease/*etiology ; *Environmental Microbiology ; Humans ; }, abstract = {As human influences change the planet including the composition of oceans and the atmosphere and thus the climate, the microbial world is bound to change and adapt as well. Like individual microbes themselves, these changes are invisible to us. The first indication we are likely to notice is the pattern and severity of diseases affecting wildlife, crops and ourselves. Michael Gross reports.}, }
@article {pmid33047846, year = {2021}, author = {Butt, N and Chauvenet, ALM and Adams, VM and Beger, M and Gallagher, RV and Shanahan, DF and Ward, M and Watson, JEM and Possingham, HP}, title = {Importance of species translocations under rapid climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {35}, number = {3}, pages = {775-783}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.13643}, pmid = {33047846}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Species that cannot adapt or keep pace with a changing climate are likely to need human intervention to shift to more suitable climates. While hundreds of articles mention using translocation as a climate-change adaptation tool, in practice, assisted migration as a conservation action remains rare, especially for animals. This is likely due to concern over introducing species to places where they may become invasive. However, there are other barriers to consider, such as time-frame mismatch, sociopolitical, knowledge and uncertainty barriers to conservationists adopting assisted migration as a go-to strategy. We recommend the following to advance assisted migration as a conservation tool: attempt assisted migrations at small scales, translocate species with little invasion risk, adopt robust monitoring protocols that trigger an active response, and promote political and public support.}, }
@article {pmid33047008, year = {2020}, author = {Levendis, YA and Kowalski, G and Lu, Y and Baldassarre, G}, title = {A simple experiment on global warming.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {192075}, pmid = {33047008}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {A simple experiment has been developed to demonstrate the global warming potential of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas in the Earth's atmosphere. A miniature electric resistance heating element was placed inside an inflatable balloon. The balloon was filled with either air or CO2. Whereas the CO2 partial pressure on the earth's atmosphere is approximately 4 × 10[-4] atm, in this experiment, a high partial pressure of CO2 (1 atm) was used to compensate for the short radiation absorption path in the balloon. The element was heated to approximately 50°C, the power was then switched off and the element's cooling trends in air and in CO2 were monitored. It took a longer time to cool the heating element back to ambient temperature in CO2 than in air. It also took longer times to cool the element in larger size balloons and in pressurized balloons when they were filled with CO2. To the contrary, the balloon size or pressure made no difference when the balloons were filled with air. A simple mathematical model was developed, and it confirmed that the radiative heat loss from the element decreased significantly in CO2. This investigation showed that the cooling rate of an object, with surface temperature akin to temperatures found on Earth, is reduced in a CO2-rich atmosphere because of the concomitant lower heat loss to its environment.}, }
@article {pmid33046929, year = {2020}, author = {Wannous, C}, title = {Climate change and other risk drivers of animal health and zoonotic disease emergencies: the need for a multidisciplinary and multisectoral approach to disaster risk management.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {39}, number = {2}, pages = {461-470}, doi = {10.20506/rst.39.2.3097}, pmid = {33046929}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; *Coronavirus Infections ; *Disasters ; Emergencies/veterinary ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; *Pneumonia, Viral ; Risk Management ; SARS-CoV-2 ; *Zika Virus ; *Zika Virus Infection/veterinary ; Zoonoses/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {In recent times, there has been an increased focus on animal health and zoonotic diseases that have the potential to trigger epidemics or pandemics that disproportionately affect the poor and most vulnerable. The recent Ebola, Zika and COVID-19 outbreaks demonstrate the devastating human, social and economic impacts of such diseases if they are not prevented or controlled, ideally at source. The risk drivers for zoonoses, which are complex and often interdependent, include climate change and related disasters, antimicrobial resistance, and anthropogenic drivers such as land-use changes and animal production practices. Understanding these drivers requires a better understanding of the ecology of zoonotic diseases at the human-animal-environment interface. Biosecurity and biosafety are critical for reducing the risk of accidental or deliberate release and should be included in risk management strategies. International frameworks for sustainable development, climate change, and disaster risk reduction have all integrated health as one of the core areas of work, calling for better preparedness and response to biological hazards and increased health system resilience. To improve their ability to prevent, prepare for, and respond to emerging and re-emerging threats, countries should address these risk drivers, taking a multidisciplinary One Health approach that involves the animal and human health and environment sectors. Cross-border cooperation is also vital, as diseases know no boundaries.}, }
@article {pmid33046927, year = {2020}, author = {McManus, CM and Rezende Paiva, S and Faria, D}, title = {Genomics and climate change.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {39}, number = {2}, pages = {481-490}, doi = {10.20506/rst.39.2.3099}, pmid = {33046927}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Genome ; *Genomics ; Livestock ; Sheep ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to change the nature and distribution of global farming systems, and strategies will be needed to adapt and optimise global food-producing systems. If genomic technologies are to be useful in this scenario, there is a need for the careful definition of phenotypes and routine sample collection, as well as large-scale genotyping of animal populations. Genomic tools will greatly enhance the characterisation of available germplasm and exploration of local genetic resources, while faster and cheaper DNA sequencing is leading to an increased understanding of the underlying genetic basis of traits. The use of genomic tools to increase animal resilience, reduce methane emissions from cattle and sheep, improve disease resistance, decrease environmental impact, reduce competition for land and water and, finally, increase production may be the most feasible path for the future of livestock production. In this review, the authors discuss various genomic strategies in the light of climate change, focusing on the selection of resistant/tolerant animals, landscape genomics, metagenomics and gene editing.}, }
@article {pmid33046645, year = {2020}, author = {Benveniste, H and Oppenheimer, M and Fleurbaey, M}, title = {Effect of border policy on exposure and vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {43}, pages = {26692-26702}, pmid = {33046645}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Migration may be increasingly used as adaptation strategy to reduce populations' exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Conversely, either through lack of information about risks at destinations or as outcome of balancing those risks, people might move to locations where they are more exposed to climatic risk than at their origin locations. Climate damages, whose quantification informs understanding of societal exposure and vulnerability, are typically computed by integrated assessment models (IAMs). Yet migration is hardly included in commonly used IAMs. In this paper, we investigate how border policy, a key influence on international migration flows, affects exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. To this aim, we include international migration and remittance dynamics explicitly in a widely used IAM employing a gravity model and compare four scenarios of border policy. We then quantify effects of border policy on population distribution, income, exposure, and vulnerability and of CO2 emissions and temperature increase for the period 2015 to 2100 along five scenarios of future development and climate change. We find that most migrants tend to move to areas where they are less exposed and vulnerable than where they came from. Our results confirm that migration and remittances can positively contribute to climate change adaptation. Crucially, our findings imply that restrictive border policy can increase exposure and vulnerability, by trapping people in areas where they are more exposed and vulnerable than where they would otherwise migrate. These results suggest that the consequences of migration policy should play a greater part in deliberations about international climate policy.}, }
@article {pmid33043559, year = {2021}, author = {Ready, E and Collings, P}, title = {"All the problems in the community are multifaceted and related to each other": Inuit concerns in an era of climate change.}, journal = {American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {e23516}, doi = {10.1002/ajhb.23516}, pmid = {33043559}, issn = {1520-6300}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Inuit/*psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Quebec ; *Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Human dimensions of climate change research in the Arctic often proposes ways for local communities to adapt to changes to their environment, foregrounding problems posed by climate change while treating social, political, and economic factors as background conditions. We explore the relevance of this research paradigm for Inuit by examining how Inuit from Kangiqsujuaq present and discuss the major issues facing their community.<br><br>METHODS: We thematically code and analyze the responses of 107 Inuit to three free-response questions about the problems facing their community and the best things about their community. The data were collected as part of a questionnaire for a project focused on food security and food sharing conducted in Kangiqsujuaq, Nunavik, in 2013 to 2014.<br><br>RESULTS: Few respondents mentioned issues relating to climate change among the most pressing problems faced by their community. Rather, a suite of interconnected social and economic issues, particularly substance abuse and the cost of living, emerged as the main concerns of Kangiqsujuarmiut. However, the environment was a central theme in respondents' favorite thing about their community.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In light of the concerns identified by Inuit, we argue that much research on climate change makes incorrect a priori assumptions and consequently fails to capture aspects of Arctic socioecological systems that are essential for how Inuit are responding to climate change. An inductive, open-ended approach can help produce research more relevant to communities.}, }
@article {pmid33043433, year = {2020}, author = {van Gemert, TE and Moses, RG}, title = {Climate change and an increased prevalence of gestational diabetes.}, journal = {The Australian &amp; New Zealand journal of obstetrics &amp; gynaecology}, volume = {60}, number = {5}, pages = {E14}, doi = {10.1111/ajo.13211}, pmid = {33043433}, issn = {1479-828X}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Diabetes, Gestational/epidemiology ; Female ; Humans ; Pregnancy ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid33042389, year = {2020}, author = {Sellevold, R and Vizcaíno, M}, title = {Global Warming Threshold and Mechanisms for Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss.}, journal = {Journal of advances in modeling earth systems}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {e2019MS002029}, pmid = {33042389}, issn = {1942-2466}, abstract = {The Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1) is used to investigate the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) under an idealized CO2 forcing scenario of 1% increase until stabilization at 4× pre-industrial at model year 140. In this simulation, the SMB calculation is coupled with the atmospheric model, using a physically based surface energy balance scheme for melt, explicit calculation of snow albedo, and a realistic treatment of polar snow and firn compaction. By the end of the simulation (years 131-150), the SMB decreases with 994 Gt yr[-1] with respect to the pre-industrial SMB, which represents a sea-level rise contribution of 2.8 mm yr[-1]. For a threshold of 2.7-K global temperature increase with respect to pre-industrial, the rate of expansion of the ablation area increases, the mass loss accelerates due to loss of refreezing capacity and accelerated melt, and the SMB becomes negative 6 years later. Before acceleration, longwave radiation is the most important contributor to increasing energy for melt. After acceleration, the large expansion of the ablation area strongly reduces surface albedo. This and much increased turbulent heat fluxes as the GrIS-integrated summer surface temperature approaches melt point become the major sources of energy for melt.}, }
@article {pmid33041475, year = {2020}, author = {Raman, S and Shameer, TT and Charles, B and Sanil, R}, title = {Habitat suitability model of endangered Latidens salimalii and the probable consequences of global warming.}, journal = {Tropical ecology}, volume = {61}, number = {4}, pages = {570-582}, pmid = {33041475}, issn = {0564-3295}, abstract = {Salim Ali's fruit bat, Latidens salimalii, is a monotypic endangered fruit bat endemic to Western Ghats (WG) with an ambiguous distribution. The distribution range, habitat suitability, and biology of this species are still uncertain. Endemic species inhabiting the high elevation of WG like L. salimalii are threatened due to climatic change and seeks urgent management interventions. Hence, we developed a habitat suitability model for L. salimalii using MaxEnt in the current climate condition and projected their distribution for three Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) climate scenarios of the 2070 time frame. The results show that 9531 km[2]of habitat in WG is suitable for L. salimalii at present, while all the future scenarios estimates propose complete loss of highly suitable habitat. The significant factors influencing the distribution of L. salimalii are the precipitation of the driest month, tree density, rain in the coldest quarter, canopy height, and altitude. The study pioneers in predicting the suitable habitat and emphasis the need to develop strategies for the long-term conservation of endangered L. salimalii in WG under global warming scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid33039261, year = {2021}, author = {Cuschieri, S and Calleja Agius, J}, title = {The interaction between diabetes and climate change - A review on the dual global phenomena.}, journal = {Early human development}, volume = {155}, number = {}, pages = {105220}, doi = {10.1016/j.earlhumdev.2020.105220}, pmid = {33039261}, issn = {1872-6232}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology/etiology ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Type 2 diabetes and climate change are forefront global challenges of the 21st century. Both are on a progressive incline with intergenerational effects on the wellbeing, health and security of the population. The aim of this review was to explore the interconnection relationship between type 2 diabetes and climate change.<br><br>METHODS: A literature review search of MEDLINE publications from 2010 to March 2020 was performed. English-language articles using terms "diabetes" AND "climate change" OR "temperature change" OR "temperature rise" OR "hot temperature" OR "extreme heat" were reviewed.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change and diabetes are interconnected through a direct and indirect pathway. Temperature changes can trigger a person's susceptibility to develop diabetes as well as impose adverse effects on those diagnosed with diabetes (such as increased incidence of hospitalization, dehydration and mortality). Both temperature extremes have been reported to lead to negative effects on diabetes. Concurrently, both phenomena have shared predisposing vectors (such as sedentary lifestyle, urbanisation, unhealthy diets) that lead to their progressive development.<br><br>CONCLUSION: A bidirectional relationship exists between type 2 diabetes and climate change. This relationship originates through a multifactorial pathway involving biological, social, environmental, geophysical and economic factors. An integrated action plan targeting the common predisposing vectors should be set up. This should support a low environmental impact while promoting equity and wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid33039256, year = {2020}, author = {Grech, V and Cuschieri, S}, title = {WITHDRAWN: Some health effects of global warming.}, journal = {Early human development}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {105216}, pmid = {33039256}, issn = {1872-6232}, abstract = {This article has been withdrawn at the request of the author(s) and/or editor. The Publisher apologizes for any inconvenience this may cause. The full Elsevier Policy on Article Withdrawal can be found at https://www.elsevier.com/about/our-business/policies/article-withdrawal.}, }
@article {pmid33036962, year = {2020}, author = {Zhao, J and Zhan, R and Wang, Y and Xie, SP and Wu, Q}, title = {Untangling impacts of global warming and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on long-term variability of North Pacific tropical cyclone track density.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {6}, number = {41}, pages = {}, pmid = {33036962}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {How much the observed long-term variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is due to anthropogenic global warming (GW) or internal climate variability remains unclear, limiting the confidence in projected future change in TC activity. Here, the relative contributions of GW and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) to the long-term variability of TC track density (TCTD) over the North Pacific (NP) are quantified on the basis of statistical analyses and climate model simulations. Results show that historical GW mainly reduced (increased) TCTD over the western (eastern) NP, while the positive (negative) IPO corresponds to a NP basin-wide increase (decrease) in TCTD except in some coastal regions. The IPO has a much greater impact on TCTD over the western NP than GW, while the IPO and GW impacts are about equal over the eastern NP during 1960-2019. These findings have important implications for projecting future TC activity over the NP.}, }
@article {pmid33035977, year = {2021}, author = {Wei, Y and Zhang, L and Wang, J and Wang, W and Niyati, N and Guo, Y and Wang, X}, title = {Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in China: Current distribution, trading, and futures under climate change and overexploitation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {755}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {142548}, pmid = {33035977}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Asian People ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Cordyceps ; Hong Kong ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) is a precious traditional medicine which is mostly distributed on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Due to its medicinal values, it has become one of the most valuable biological commodities and widely traded in recent years worldwide. However, its habitat has changed profoundly in recent years under global warming as well as anthropogenic pressures, resulting in a sharp decline in its wild population in recent years. Based on the occurrence samples, this paper estimates the potential distribution of caterpillar fungus using MaxEnt model. The model simulates potential geographical distribution of the species under current climate conditions, and examine future distributions under different climatic change scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 have been modelled in 2050s and 2070s, respectively). For examining the impacts of climate change in future, the integrated effects of climatic impact, trading, and overexploitation had been analyzed in detailed routes. The results show that: 1) The distribution patterns of caterpillar fungus under scenario RCP 2.6 have been predicted without obvious changes. However, range shift has been observed with significant shrinks across all classes of suitable areas in Tianshan, Kunlun Mountains, and the southwestern QTP in 2050s and 2070s under RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. 2) The exports were decreasing drastically in recent years. Guangzhou and Hongkong are two international super import and consumption centres of caterpillar fungus in the world. 3) Both ecological and economic sustainable utilization of the caterpillar fungus has been threatened by the combined pressures of climate change and overexploitation. A strict but effective regulation and protection system, even a systematic management plan not just on the collectors but the whole explore process are urgently needed and has to be issued in the QTP.}, }
@article {pmid33035971, year = {2021}, author = {Gissi, E and Manea, E and Mazaris, AD and Fraschetti, S and Almpanidou, V and Bevilacqua, S and Coll, M and Guarnieri, G and Lloret-Lloret, E and Pascual, M and Petza, D and Rilov, G and Schonwald, M and Stelzenmüller, V and Katsanevakis, S}, title = {A review of the combined effects of climate change and other local human stressors on the marine environment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {755}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {142564}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142564}, pmid = {33035971}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Humans ; Introduced Species ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is a key, global driver of change of marine ecosystems. At local and regional scales, other local human stressors (LS) can interact with CC and modify its effects on marine ecosystems. Understanding the response of the marine environment to the combined effects of CC and LS is crucial to inform marine ecosystem-based management and planning, yet our knowledge of the potential effects of such interactions is fragmented. At a global scale, we explored how cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) have addressed CC in the marine realm and discuss progress and shortcomings of current approaches. For this we conducted a systematic review on how CEAs investigated at different levels of biological organization ecological responses, functional aspects, and the combined effect of CC and HS. Globally, the effects of 52 LS and of 27 CC-related stressors on the marine environment have been studied in combination, such as industrial fisheries with change in temperature, or sea level rise with artisanal fisheries, marine litter, change in sediment load and introduced alien species. CC generally intensified the effects of LS at species level. At trophic groups and ecosystem levels, the effects of CC either intensified or mitigated the effects of other HS depending on the trophic groups or the environmental conditions involved, thus suggesting that the combined effects of CC and LS are context-dependent and vary among and within ecosystems. Our results highlight that large-scale assessments on the spatial interaction and combined effects of CC and LS remain limited. More importantly, our results strengthen the urgent need of CEAs to capture local-scale effects of stressors that can exacerbate climate-induced changes. Ultimately, this will allow identifying management measures that aid counteracting CC effects at relevant scales.}, }
@article {pmid33034960, year = {2020}, author = {Xu, R and Yu, P and Abramson, MJ and Johnston, FH and Samet, JM and Bell, ML and Haines, A and Ebi, KL and Li, S and Guo, Y}, title = {Wildfires, Global Climate Change, and Human Health.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {383}, number = {22}, pages = {2173-2181}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMsr2028985}, pmid = {33034960}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Health Status ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; Smoke/*adverse effects ; *Wildfires ; }, }
@article {pmid33032680, year = {2021}, author = {Rydenfelt, H}, title = {From Justice to the Good? Liberal Utilitarianism, Climate Change and the Coronavirus Crisis.}, journal = {Cambridge quarterly of healthcare ethics : CQ : the international journal of healthcare ethics committees}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {376-383}, doi = {10.1017/S0963180120000900}, pmid = {33032680}, issn = {1469-2147}, mesh = {Bioethical Issues ; *COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Ethical Analysis ; *Ethical Theory ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid33032131, year = {2021}, author = {Bussi, G and Darby, SE and Whitehead, PG and Jin, L and Dadson, SJ and Voepel, HE and Vasilopoulos, G and Hackney, CR and Hutton, C and Berchoux, T and Parsons, DR and Nicholas, A}, title = {Impact of dams and climate change on suspended sediment flux to the Mekong delta.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {755}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {142468}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142468}, pmid = {33032131}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The livelihoods of millions of people living in the world's deltas are deeply interconnected with the sediment dynamics of these deltas. In particular a sustainable supply of fluvial sediments from upstream is critical for ensuring the fertility of delta soils and for promoting sediment deposition that can offset rising sea levels. Yet, in many large river catchments this supply of sediment is being threatened by the planned construction of large dams. In this study, we apply the INCA hydrological and sediment model to the Mekong River catchment in South East Asia. The aim is to assess the impact of several large dams (both existing and planned) on the suspended sediment fluxes of the river. We force the INCA model with a climate model to assess the interplay of changing climate and sediment trapping caused by dam construction. The results show that historical sediment flux declines are mostly caused by dams built in PR China and that sediment trapping will increase in the future due to the construction of new dams in PDR Lao and Cambodia. If all dams that are currently planned for the next two decades are built, they will induce a decline of suspended sediment flux of 50% (47-53% 90% confidence interval (90%CI)) compared to current levels (99 Mt/year at the delta apex), with potentially damaging consequences for local livelihoods and ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid33031430, year = {2020}, author = {Hu, R and Gu, Y and Luo, M and Lu, Z and Wei, M and Zhong, J}, title = {Shifts in bird ranges and conservation priorities in China under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {e0240225}, pmid = {33031430}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Birds ; China ; Citizen Science ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecosystem ; Models, Statistical ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most significant causes of species range shift and extinction. Based on a citizen science dataset of birds in China, the Bird Report, we developed a high-resolution map of bird species richness in China, and simulated the range shifts and area changes of the 1,042 birds through the year 2070 using three different General Circulation Models and two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, including RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). It was found that 241-244 (under different scenarios) bird species would lose a portion of their distribution ranges; and that most species in China would move to either higher elevations or northward. The other 798-801 species would experience range expansion. Compared to resident species (n = 516), migratory birds (n = 526) may undergo more limited range expansion but a longer range shift distance on average. The species diversity of birds will considerably increase in areas higher than 1,500 m in elevation under both RCPs. Conservation priorities with higher species richness were also identified using the Zonation model. The existing national nature reserves are not sufficient for protecting important bird habitats, especially after range shifts. Significant gaps in protected areas were observed in the northern Xinjiang, southern Tibet, Greater Khingan, Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, northern Bohai Rim, and southeastern coastline areas. Many of these areas are characterized by high human populations and intensive development, and establishing sizable protected areas has become difficult. Inclusive conservation mechanisms that include restoring habitats in urban parks and sharing habitats in farmland areas, may be a feasible solution.}, }
@article {pmid33028986, year = {2020}, author = {Wei, X and Cai, S and Ni, P and Zhan, W}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human activities on the water discharge and sediment load of the Pearl River, southern China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {16743}, pmid = {33028986}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Global climate change and human activities have important effects on the water discharge and sediment load of the Pearl River. In this study, the water discharge and sediment load were investigated by using hydro-meteorological data from 1954 to 2018. The linear regression, Mann-Kendall abrupt test and double mass curve were employed to detect trends and abrupt change-points in water discharge and sediment load and to quantify the effects of climate change and human activities on water discharge and sediment load. The results revealed that the annual sediment load exhibited a significant decreasing trend at a rate of - 2.24 × 10[4] t/year, regardless of water discharge, and an abrupt change occurred in 1998. Human activities, especially dam construction contributed 96% to this change, while 4% was due to climate change. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are often associated with low precipitation, resulting in low water discharge and sediment load, indicating that changes in ENSO periodicity could affect the inter-annual periodic variations of water discharge and sediment load. As population and economy boom, more dams are being built in the Pearl River basin, and special attention should be paid to the management and mitigation of the effects of dams on sediment load.}, }
@article {pmid33028935, year = {2020}, author = {Tabari, H}, title = {Author Correction: Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {16969}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-74038-4}, pmid = {33028935}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid33028833, year = {2020}, author = {Koteswara Rao, K and Lakshmi Kumar, TV and Kulkarni, A and Ho, CH and Mahendranath, B and Desamsetti, S and Patwardhan, S and Dandi, AR and Barbosa, H and Sabade, S}, title = {Projections of heat stress and associated work performance over India in response to global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {16675}, pmid = {33028833}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Summertime heat stress future projections from multi-model mean of 18 CMIP5 models show unprecedented increasing levels in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios over India. The estimated heat stress is found to have more impact on the coastal areas of India having exposure to more frequent days of extreme caution to danger category along with the increased probability of occurrence. The explicit amount of change in temperature, increase in the duration and intensity of warm days along with the modulation in large scale circulation in future are seemingly connected to the increasing levels of heat stress over India. A decline of 30 to 40% in the work performance is projected over India by the end of the century due to the elevated heat stress levels which pose great challenges to the country policy makers to design the safety mechanisms and to protect people working under continuous extreme hot weather conditions.}, }
@article {pmid33027254, year = {2020}, author = {Brown, PT and Saunders, H}, title = {Approximate calculations of the net economic impact of global warming mitigation targets under heightened damage estimates.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {e0239520}, pmid = {33027254}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Global Warming/*economics ; *Models, Theoretical ; Social Welfare ; }, abstract = {Efforts to mitigate global warming are often justified through calculations of the economic damages that may occur absent mitigation. The earliest such damage estimates were speculative mathematical representations, but some more recent studies provide empirical estimates of damages on economic growth that accumulate over time and result in larger damages than those estimated previously. These heightened damage estimates have been used to suggest that limiting global warming this century to 1.5 °C avoids tens of trillions of 2010 US$ in damage to gross world product relative to limiting global warming to 2.0 °C. However, in order to estimate the net effect on gross world product, mitigation costs associated with decarbonizing the world's energy systems must be subtracted from the benefits of avoided damages. Here, we follow previous work to parameterize the aforementioned heightened damage estimates into a schematic global climate-economy model (DICE) so that they can be weighed against mainstream estimates of mitigation costs in a unified framework. We investigate the net effect of mitigation on gross world product through finite time horizons under a spectrum of exogenously defined levels of mitigation stringency. We find that even under heightened damage estimates, the additional mitigation costs of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C (relative to 2.0 °C) are higher than the additional avoided damages this century under most parameter combinations considered. Specifically, using our central parameter values, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C results in a net loss of gross world product of roughly forty trillion US$ relative to 2 °C and achieving either 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C require a net sacrifice of gross world product, relative to a no-mitigation case, though 2100 with a 3%/year discount rate. However, the benefits of more stringent mitigation accumulate over time and our calculations indicate that stabilizing warming at 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C by 2100 would eventually confer net benefits of thousands of trillions of US$ in gross world product by 2300. The results emphasize the temporal asymmetry between the costs of mitigation and benefits of avoided damages from climate change and thus the long timeframe for which climate change mitigation investment pays off.}, }
@article {pmid33026361, year = {2021}, author = {Retter, A and Karwautz, C and Griebler, C}, title = {Groundwater Microbial Communities in Times of Climate Change.}, journal = {Current issues in molecular biology}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {509-538}, doi = {10.21775/cimb.041.509}, pmid = {33026361}, issn = {1467-3045}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Carbon/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Groundwater/*microbiology ; Humans ; Hydrology/methods ; Microbiota/*physiology ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a massive impact on the global water cycle. Subsurface ecosystems, the earth largest reservoir of liquid freshwater, currently experience a significant increase in temperature and serious consequences from extreme hydrological events. Extended droughts as well as heavy rains and floods have measurable impacts on groundwater quality and availability. In addition, the growing water demand puts increasing pressure on the already vulnerable groundwater ecosystems. Global change induces undesired dynamics in the typically nutrient and energy poor aquifers that are home to a diverse and specialized microbiome and fauna. Current and future changes in subsurface environmental conditions, without doubt, alter the composition of communities, as well as important ecosystem functions, for instance the cycling of elements such as carbon and nitrogen. A key role is played by the microbes. Understanding the interplay of biotic and abiotic drivers in subterranean ecosystems is required to anticipate future effects of climate change on groundwater resources and habitats. This review summarizes potential threats to groundwater ecosystems with emphasis on climate change and the microbial world down below our feet in the water saturated subsurface.}, }
@article {pmid33025331, year = {2020}, author = {Sinha, RK and Eldho, TI and Subimal, G}, title = {Assessing the impacts of historical and future land use and climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield of a tropical mountainous river basin in South India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {11}, pages = {679}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08623-5}, pmid = {33025331}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; India ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {In this study, the impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield were investigated for the Payaswani River Basin, Western Ghats, India. The LULC was determined using Landsat images, and climate data were procured from five general circulation models for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (moderate emission) and 8.5 (high emission). The land change modeler was used to derive the future LULC and its changes from 1988 (historical) to 2030 (future) by using the transition matrix method. The SWAT model was used to assess the impacts of LULC and climate change for the streamflow and sediment yield. The results showed that decrease in forests and grasslands and increase in plantation, agricultural, and urban areas from 1988 to 2030 would lead to an increase in the mean streamflow (11.23%) and sediment yield (17.41%). Under RCP 4.5, climate change would decrease the streamflow by 2.38% in 2030. However, under RCP 8.5, climate change would increase the streamflow by 0.12% in 2030. The sediment yield under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 would increase by 1.23% and 3.33%, respectively. In comparison with the baseline condition, by 2030 future changes in the LULC and climate would increase the streamflow by 7.05% and 11.71% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The sediment yield would increase by 7.92% and 27.11% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The streamflow and sediment yield were predicted to increase in the summer and winter but decrease in the monsoon season.}, }
@article {pmid33025274, year = {2020}, author = {Singh, L and Saravanan, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on hydrology components using CORDEX South Asia climate model in Wunna, Bharathpuzha, and Mahanadi, India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {11}, pages = {678}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08637-z}, pmid = {33025274}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Hydrology ; India ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Detecting the probable impact of climate change responses on hydrological components is most important for understanding such changes on water resources. The impact of climate change on virtual parameters of water was assessed through hydrological modeling of the Wunna, Mahanadi (Middle), and Bharathpuzha watersheds. In this article, future hydrological component responses under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were considered for investigating the runoff, sediment, and water storage components. RegCM4 CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 CORDEX South Asia of RCM model was used which is specially downscaled for the Asian region by IITM-India. Delta change method was adopted to remove bias correction in RCM data. Hydrological simulation for current and future periods was performed by GIS interfaced Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The surface runoff of Wunna and Bharathpuzha watersheds and the yield of sediment are expected to increase further under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 and in contrast to Mahanadi watershed. Both blue water storage (BW) and green water storage (GWS) of Wunna watershed are expected to decline under RCP4.5, and rise under RCP8.5 scenario. Both BW and GWS of Bharathpuzha are expected to increase in the future except in western region under RCP4.5 scenario. BW of Mahanadi is expected to increase in the future. However, GWS will decrease in some of the sub-basins. The model-generated results will be helpful for future water resources planning and development.}, }
@article {pmid33024856, year = {2020}, author = {Chowdhury, MA and Hasan, MK and Hasan, MR and Younos, TB}, title = {Climate change impacts and adaptations on health of Internally Displaced People (IDP): An exploratory study on coastal areas of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {e05018}, pmid = {33024856}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Every year thousands of people are being displaced in coastal areas of Bangladesh due to natural calamities associated with climate change, known as Internally Displaced Peoples (IDPs). Climate change adaptation measures play a significant role in coping with the alteration of climatic components, while various forms of barriers hinder the sustainability of adaptation. This research was conducted to understand the perception of IDPs on climate change impact on health in the coastal areas of Bangladesh, including the adaptation practices and barriers to the coping strategies. To fulfill the objective, 420 individual surveys were conducted randomly in two Sub-districts of Khulna district in Bangladesh. The findings reveal that the riverbank erosion and cyclones were the primary reasons for displacement, and the social relationships were hampered in the new places of living. Also, the temperature in summer and winter, and the rainfall intensity increased, whereas rainfall slightly decreased over the last ten years. Differences of opinion were identified about the effects of the changing climatic variables on the respondents' health between the previous and present locations. Despite practicing different adaptive strategies, the weak financial condition and a lack of access to health care information are mostly hindering the sustainability of adaptation. This research may help policymakers in taking proper initiatives to ensure sustainable adaptation practices in the coastal areas.}, }
@article {pmid33024706, year = {2021}, author = {Indhumathi, K and Sathesh Kumar, K}, title = {A review on prediction of seasonal diseases based on climate change using big data.}, journal = {Materials today. Proceedings}, volume = {37}, number = {}, pages = {2648-2652}, pmid = {33024706}, issn = {2214-7853}, abstract = {Big Data occupies an important place in the prediction of diseases that happen due to climate change. In each aspect of human life, the weather plays a major role. It directly affects human society or human life. Because of an extreme weather condition creates various diseases among humans. Such as Vector-borne diseases (Malaria, dengue and chikungunya fever), Water-borne diseases (Cholera, Typhoid), Air-borne diseases (Chicken Pox, influenza and small Pox) and Food-borne diseases (Diarrhoea and Salmonella) etc. This survey presents an overview for a climate variable such as extreme temperature, precipitation, humidity and how unexpected climate conditions can affect the disease and living organism.}, }
@article {pmid33024091, year = {2020}, author = {Calel, R and Chapman, SC and Stainforth, DA and Watkins, NW}, title = {Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {5028}, pmid = {33024091}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {A number of influential assessments of the economic cost of climate change rely on just a small number of coupled climate-economy models. A central feature of these assessments is their accounting of the economic cost of epistemic uncertainty-that part of our uncertainty stemming from our inability to precisely estimate key model parameters, such as the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. However, these models fail to account for the cost of aleatory uncertainty-the irreducible uncertainty that remains even when the true parameter values are known. We show how to account for this second source of uncertainty in a physically well-founded and tractable way, and we demonstrate that even modest variability implies trillions of dollars of previously unaccounted for economic damages.}, }
@article {pmid33020479, year = {2020}, author = {Rising, J and Devineni, N}, title = {Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {4991}, pmid = {33020479}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {A key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show that it outperforms traditional empirical models under cross-validation. The fitted model parameters provide evidence of considerable existing climate adaptation across counties. If crop locations are held constant in the future, total agriculture profits for the six crops will drop by 31% for the temperature patterns of 2070 under RCP 8.5. When crop lands are reallocated to avoid yield decreases and take advantage of yield increases, half of these losses are avoided (16% loss), but 57% of counties are allocated crops different from those currently planted. Our results provide a framework for identifying crop adaptation opportunities, but suggest limits to their potential.}, }
@article {pmid33020387, year = {2020}, author = {Fan, S and Chen, C and Zhao, Q and Wei, J and Zhang, H}, title = {Identifying Potentially Climatic Suitability Areas for Arma custos (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in China under Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {33020387}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {Spodoptera frugiperda is a notorious pest that feeds on more than 80 crops, and has spread over 100 countries. Many biological agents have been employed to regulate it, such as Arma custos. A. custos is a polyphagous predatory heteropteran, which can effectively suppress several agricultural and forest pests. Thus, in order to understand where A. custos can survive and where can be released, MaxEnt was used to predict the potentially suitable areas for A. custos in China under climate change conditions. The results show that the annual mean temperature (bio1) and annual precipitation (bio12) are the major factors influencing the distribution of A. custos. The optimal range of the two are 7.5 to 15 °C, 750 to 1200 mm, respectively. The current climate is highly suitable for A. custos in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang Provinces. Considering the currently suitable distribution area of S. frugiperda, artificially reared A. custos is suitable for release in Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, and southeastern Sichuan Provinces. Under the future climatic scenarios, the suitable area will decrease and shift towards the north. Overall, this result can provide a reference framework for future application of A. custos for biological control.}, }
@article {pmid33020018, year = {2021}, author = {Schulte To Bühne, H and Tobias, JA and Durant, SM and Pettorelli, N}, title = {Improving Predictions of Climate Change-Land Use Change Interactions.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {36}, number = {1}, pages = {29-38}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2020.08.019}, pmid = {33020018}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change and land use change often interact, altering biodiversity in unexpected ways. Research into climate change-land use change (CC-LUC) interactions has so far focused on quantifying biodiversity outcomes, rather than identifying the underlying ecological mechanisms, making it difficult to predict interactions and design appropriate conservation responses. We propose a risk-based framework to further our understanding of CC-LUC interactions. By identifying the factors driving the exposure and vulnerability of biodiversity to land use change, and then examining how these factors are altered by climate change (or vice versa), this framework will allow the effects of different interaction mechanisms to be compared across geographic and ecological contexts, supporting efforts to reduce biodiversity loss from interacting stressors.}, }
@article {pmid33019715, year = {2020}, author = {Sorgho, R and Mank, I and Kagoné, M and Souares, A and Danquah, I and Sauerborn, R}, title = {"We Will Always Ask Ourselves the Question of How to Feed the Family": Subsistence Farmers' Perceptions on Adaptation to Climate Change in Burkina Faso.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {33019715}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Burkina Faso ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Humans ; }, abstract = {In West Africa, climate change aggravates subsistence farmers' vulnerability to weather variability to sustain their agricultural and nutritional requirements. For successful adaptation policies, in-depth understanding of farmers' perceptions about climate change, agriculture, and adaptation strategies is essential. This qualitative study in rural Burkina Faso characterized farmers' perceptions and knowledge through in-depth interviews. The study enumerated the barriers, possibilities, strategies/practices, and support sources of farmers. There was awareness but limited understanding of climate change amongst farmers. Those unable to adapt, faced increased health difficulties, specifically regarding nutrition and mental health. Farmers could implement some dietary and agricultural adaptation strategies (reduce meal size, frequency and variety, preemptive purchase of cereals, multi-cropping, crop rotation, modified seeds) but were unable to implement others (soil rehabilitation, water management). Barriers to implementation comprised financial and time constraints, material and labor shortages, and inaccessible information. Farmers did not understand, trust or utilize meteorological services, but appreciated and relied on agricultural extension services. They reported that social and governmental support was sporadic and inconsistent. This study uncovers the following targets for climate change adaptation policies in rural Burkina Faso: promoting meteorological services, expanding agricultural extension services, increasing access to financial resources, and framing sustainable adaptation within national development goals.}, }
@article {pmid33017444, year = {2020}, author = {Adam, S and Reber, U and Häussler, T and Schmid-Petri, H}, title = {How climate change skeptics (try to) spread their ideas: Using computational methods to assess the resonance among skeptics' and legacy media.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {e0240089}, pmid = {33017444}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Germany ; Mass Media ; Politics ; Social Media ; }, abstract = {We study the discursive resonance of online climate skepticism in traditional media in Germany, a country where climate skeptics lack public prestige and thus form a political counter-movement. We thereby differentiate two temporal dynamics: resonance can be continuous or selective, based on the exploitation of specific events. Beyond, we test whether such resonance is higher within the conservative media. We rely on news value theory to shed light on the mechanism facilitating or hindering such resonance and identify three indicators for resonance: frames, positions and actors. Using various computational methods as well as qualitative case studies, we examine the skeptical and traditional media discourses over a period of two years. Our analysis shows that there is no continuous resonance. However, our data reveal selective resonance: skeptics' manage to exploit specific events pushing their frames and positions onto traditional media's agenda. Thereby, conservative media did not give greater resonance to climate skeptical voices whereas they resort to downplaying the issue by allocating less space to it.}, }
@article {pmid33015672, year = {2020}, author = {Hodnebrog, &#xd8; and Aamaas, B and Fuglestvedt, JS and Marston, G and Myhre, G and Nielsen, CJ and Sandstad, M and Shine, KP and Wallington, TJ}, title = {Updated Global Warming Potentials and Radiative Efficiencies of Halocarbons and Other Weak Atmospheric Absorbers.}, journal = {Reviews of geophysics (Washington, D.C. : 1985)}, volume = {58}, number = {3}, pages = {e2019RG000691}, pmid = {33015672}, issn = {8755-1209}, abstract = {Human activity has led to increased atmospheric concentrations of many gases, including halocarbons, and may lead to emissions of many more gases. Many of these gases are, on a per molecule basis, powerful greenhouse gases, although at present-day concentrations their climate effect is in the so-called weak limit (i.e., their effect scales linearly with concentration). We published a comprehensive review of the radiative efficiencies (RE) and global warming potentials (GWP) for around 200 such compounds in 2013 (Hodnebrog et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/rog.20013). Here we present updated RE and GWP values for compounds where experimental infrared absorption spectra are available. Updated numbers are based on a revised "Pinnock curve", which gives RE as a function of wave number, and now also accounts for stratospheric temperature adjustment (Shine &amp; Myhre, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001951). Further updates include the implementation of around 500 absorption spectra additional to those in the 2013 review and new atmospheric lifetimes from the literature (mainly from WMO (2019)). In total, values for 60 of the compounds previously assessed are based on additional absorption spectra, and 42 compounds have REs which differ by >10% from our previous assessment. New RE calculations are presented for more than 400 compounds in addition to the previously assessed compounds, and GWP calculations are presented for a total of around 250 compounds. Present-day radiative forcing due to halocarbons and other weak absorbers is 0.38 [0.33-0.43] W m[-2], compared to 0.36 [0.32-0.40] W m[-2] in IPCC AR5 (Myhre et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.018), which is about 18% of the current CO2 forcing.}, }
@article {pmid33013998, year = {2020}, author = {Zytynska, SE and Eicher, M and Rothballer, M and Weisser, WW}, title = {Microbial-Mediated Plant Growth Promotion and Pest Suppression Varies Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {573578}, pmid = {33013998}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change is altering the dynamics of crop pests and diseases resulting in reduced crop yields. Using beneficial soil bacterial to increase crop health is a quickly developing area in sustainable agriculture, but it is unknown if climate change or interactions with other species could alter their effect. The plant growth-promoting rhizobacterium Acidovorax radicis N35 is known to increase barley (Hordeum vulgare) plant growth under laboratory conditions, and we tested the stability of the plant-bacterial interactions when exposed to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) levels while infesting the aboveground leaves with cereal aphids (Sitobion avenae) and the soil with beneficial earthworms. Acidovorax radicis N35 increased plant growth and reduced insect growth - with greatest effect in a high-stress elevated O3 environment, but reduced effects under elevated CO2. Earthworms promoted both plant and insect growth, but inoculation with A. radicis N35 alleviated some of the earthworm-mediated increase in pest abundance, particularly in the ambient environment. The consistency of these beneficial effects highlights the potential of exploiting local species interactions for predicting and mitigating climate change effects in managed systems. We conclude that microbial bioprotectants have high potential for benefiting agriculture via plant-growth promotion and pest suppression.}, }
@article {pmid33013943, year = {2020}, author = {Taube, F and Vogeler, I and Kluß, C and Herrmann, A and Hasler, M and Rath, J and Loges, R and Malisch, CS}, title = {Yield Progress in Forage Maize in NW Europe-Breeding Progress or Climate Change Effects?.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1214}, pmid = {33013943}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Yield increases in forage maize (Zea mays L.) in NW Europe over time are well documented. The driving causes for these, however, remain unclear as there is little information available regarding the role of plant traits triggering this yield progress. Ten different hybrids from the same maturity group, which have typically been cultivated in Northwest Germany from 1970 to recent and are thus representing breeding progress over four decades, were selected for a 2-year field study in northern Germany. Traits that were investigated included leaf area index, leaf architecture, photosynthesis, radiation use efficiency, root mass, root length density, and turnover. Based on a mixed model analysis with these traits as co-variates, parameters related to leaf characteristics, in particular the number and length of leaves, the radiation use efficiency, and the leaf orientation, were identified as most influential on the yield progress (0.13 tons ha[-1] year[-1]). In contrast to our hypothesis, root biomass only increased negligibly in newer hybrids compared to older ones, confirming the 'functional equilibrium' theory for high input production systems. Due to an abundance of nutrients and water in such high input systems, there is no incentive for breeders to select for carbon partitioning toward the rooting system. Breeding evidence to increase forage quality were also negligible, with no change in cob starch concentration, forage digestibility, nor NDF content and NDF digestibility. The observed increase in yield over the last four decades is due to a combination of increased temperature sums (~240 GDD within 40 years), and a higher radiation interception and radiation use efficiency. This higher radiation interception was driven by an increased leaf area index, with a higher number of leaves (16 instead of 14 leaves within 40 years) and longer leaves of newer compared to older hybrids. Future selection and adaptation of maize hybrids to changing environmental conditions are likely to be the key for high productivity and quality and for the economic viability of maize growing and expansion in Northern Europe.}, }
@article {pmid33011916, year = {2021}, author = {Monz, CA and Gutzwiller, KJ and Hausner, VH and Brunson, MW and Buckley, R and Pickering, CM}, title = {Understanding and managing the interactions of impacts from nature-based recreation and climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {3}, pages = {631-643}, pmid = {33011916}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {1534006//Office of Polar Programs/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Recreation ; }, abstract = {Disturbance to ecosystems in parks and protected areas from nature-based tourism and recreation is increasing in scale and severity, as are the impacts of climate change-but there is limited research examining the degree to which these anthropogenic disturbances interact. In this perspective paper, we draw on the available literature to expose complex recreation and climate interactions that may alter ecosystems of high conservation value such that important species and processes no longer persist. Our emphasis is on ecosystems in high demand for tourism and recreation that also are increasingly experiencing stress from climate change. We discuss the importance of developing predictive models of direct and indirect effects, including threshold and legacy effects at different levels of biological organization. We present a conceptual model of these interactions to initiate a dialog among researchers and managers so that new research approaches and managerial frameworks are advanced to address this emerging issue.}, }
@article {pmid33010079, year = {2020}, author = {Kalogirou, MR and Dahlke, S and Davidson, S and Yamamoto, S}, title = {Nurses' perspectives on climate change, health and nursing practice.}, journal = {Journal of clinical nursing}, volume = {29}, number = {23-24}, pages = {4759-4768}, doi = {10.1111/jocn.15519}, pmid = {33010079}, issn = {1365-2702}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Humans ; Morals ; *Nursing ; Qualitative Research ; }, abstract = {AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to explore Canadian nurses' perspectives on climate change, health, nursing practice and the relationships between these concepts.<br><br>BACKGROUND: Climate change negatively impacts human health. With a mandate to promote health, nurses have a professional and ethical responsibility to address climate change. Little is known about Canadian nurses' perspectives on climate change or how they perceive of their professional responsibility towards addressing it.<br><br>METHODS: A focused ethnography was conducted in three medicine units and the emergency room at a Canadian hospital. Nurses (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;22) participated in semi-structured interviews, and observations were collected. Data were analysed via thematic analysis. Reporting is in accordance with the COREQ guideline.<br><br>RESULTS: Three themes were identified: muddled terminology, climate change and health, and nursing's relationship to climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Participants had varying levels of knowledge about climate change and its relationship to health or practice. Climate change was a personal concern, and nursing's role in addressing it was not understood.<br><br>RELEVANCE TO PRACTICE: This study highlighted that practising nurses did not readily recognise their role in addressing climate change. More work is needed to clarify this role and bring it into the consciousness of every-day nursing practice. Furthermore, more work is needed to examine how healthcare organisations can better support environmentally responsible nursing practice.}, }
@article {pmid33009384, year = {2020}, author = {Leclerc, C and Courchamp, F and Bellard, C}, title = {Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {4943}, pmid = {33009384}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; *Islands ; Mammals/*physiology ; Principal Component Analysis ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid33006246, year = {2020}, author = {Harvey, JA and Heinen, R and Gols, R and Thakur, MP}, title = {Climate change-mediated temperature extremes and insects: From outbreaks to breakdowns.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {12}, pages = {6685-6701}, pmid = {33006246}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {TH 2307/1-1,2-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Ecosystem ; Herbivory ; Insecta ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Insects are among the most diverse and widespread animals across the biosphere and are well-known for their contributions to ecosystem functioning and services. Recent increases in the frequency and magnitude of climatic extremes (CE), in particular temperature extremes (TE) owing to anthropogenic climate change, are exposing insect populations and communities to unprecedented stresses. However, a major problem in understanding insect responses to TE is that they are still highly unpredictable both spatially and temporally, which reduces frequency- or direction-dependent selective responses by insects. Moreover, how species interactions and community structure may change in response to stresses imposed by TE is still poorly understood. Here we provide an overview of how terrestrial insects respond to TE by integrating their organismal physiology, multitrophic, and community-level interactions, and building that up to explore scenarios for population explosions and crashes that have ecosystem-level consequences. We argue that TE can push insect herbivores and their natural enemies to and even beyond their adaptive limits, which may differ among species intimately involved in trophic interactions, leading to phenological disruptions and the structural reorganization of food webs. TE may ultimately lead to outbreak-breakdown cycles in insect communities with detrimental consequences for ecosystem functioning and resilience. Lastly, we suggest new research lines that will help achieve a better understanding of insect and community responses to a wide range of CE.}, }
@article {pmid33005801, year = {2020}, author = {Payus, CM and Jikilim, C and Sentian, J}, title = {Rainwater chemistry of acid precipitation occurrences due to long-range transboundary haze pollution and prolonged drought events during southwest monsoon season: climate change driven.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {e04997}, pmid = {33005801}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The purposes of this research were to study the characteristics chemistry of pH, anions and cations in rainwater, and to identify the possible sources that contributing to the acid precipitation during southwest monsoon season with occurrence of extreme drought event. During the southwest monsoon season, it normally occurs along with haze phenomenon that every year will hit Southeast Asia. This condition will aggravate with high acidic particles in the atmosphere due to the prolonged drought. The analysed parameters which involved pH, anions (NO3 [-], SO4 [2-] and Cl[-]) and cations (Ca[2+], Mg[2+], Na[+] and K[+]) were analysed using pH meter, Hach DR 2800, argentometric method and ICP-OES. From the findings, it showed that acid rain occurred during the southwest monsoon season with the range of pH values from 4.95 ± 0.13 to 6.40 ± 0.03 and the total average of pH 5.71 ± 0.32. Anions NO3 [-], SO4 [2-] and Cl[-] were found to be the dominant compositions of the acid rain occurrences with higher concentrations detected. In overall, rural area recorded with higher acidity of precipitation at total average of pH 5.54 ± 0.39 compared to urban area at pH 5.77 ± 0.26. Rural area surprisingly recorded higher frequency occurrences of acid rain with pH lesser than 5.6 and below compared to urban area. As for public health and safety, all rainwater samples during the acid rain event were found exceeded the allowable limits of NWQS and WHO standards, that shown not suitable for skin contact, recreational purposes even for drinking purposes.}, }
@article {pmid33005228, year = {2020}, author = {Du, FK and Wang, T and Wang, Y and Ueno, S and de Lafontaine, G}, title = {Contrasted patterns of local adaptation to climate change across the range of an evergreen oak, Quercus aquifolioides.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {2377-2391}, pmid = {33005228}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Long-lived tree species are genetically differentiated and locally adapted with respect to fitness-related traits, but the genetic basis of local adaptation remains largely unresolved. Recent advances in population genetics and landscape genomic analyses enable identification of putative adaptive loci and specific selective pressures acting on local adaptation. Here, we sampled 60 evergreen oak (Quercus aquifolioides) populations throughout the species' range and pool-sequenced 587 individuals at drought-stress candidate genes. We analyzed patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation for 381 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 65 candidate genes and eight microsatellites. Outlier loci were identified by genetic differentiation analysis and genome-environment associations. The response pattern of genetic variation to environmental gradient was assessed by linear isolation-by-distance/environment tests, redundancy analysis, and nonlinear methods. SNPs and microsatellites revealed two genetic lineages: Tibet and Hengduan Mountains-Western Sichuan Plateau (HDM-WSP), with reduced genetic diversity in Tibet lineage. More outlier loci were detected in HDM-WSP lineage than Tibet lineage. Among these, three SNPs in two genes responded to dry season precipitation in the HDM-WSP lineage but not in Tibet. By contrast, genetic variation in the Tibet lineage was related to geographic distance instead of the environment. Furthermore, risk of nonadaptedness (RONA) analyses suggested HDM-WSP lineage will have a better capacity to adapt in the predicted future climate compared with the Tibet lineage. We detected genetic imprints consistent with natural selection and molecular adaptation to drought on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) over a range of long-lived and widely distributed oak species in a changing environment. Our results suggest that different within-species adaptation processes occur in species occurring in heterogeneous environments.}, }
@article {pmid33005227, year = {2020}, author = {Galliart, M and Sabates, S and Tetreault, H and DeLaCruz, A and Bryant, J and Alsdurf, J and Knapp, M and Bello, NM and Baer, SG and Maricle, BR and Gibson, DJ and Poland, J and St Amand, P and Unruh, N and Parrish, O and Johnson, L}, title = {Adaptive genetic potential and plasticity of trait variation in the foundation prairie grass Andropogon gerardii across the US Great Plains' climate gradient: Implications for climate change and restoration.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {2333-2356}, pmid = {33005227}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Plant response to climate depends on a species' adaptive potential. To address this, we used reciprocal gardens to detect genetic and environmental plasticity effects on phenotypic variation and combined with genetic analyses. Four reciprocal garden sites were planted with three regional ecotypes of Andropogon gerardii, a dominant Great Plains prairie grass, using dry, mesic, and wet ecotypes originating from western KS to Illinois that span 500-1,200 mm rainfall/year. We aimed to answer: (a) What is the relative role of genetic constraints and phenotypic plasticity in controlling phenotypes? (b) When planted in the homesite, is there a trait syndrome for each ecotype? (c) How are genotypes and phenotypes structured by climate? and (d) What are implications of these results for response to climate change and use of ecotypes for restoration? Surprisingly, we did not detect consistent local adaptation. Rather, we detected co-gradient variation primarily for most vegetative responses. All ecotypes were stunted in western KS. Eastward, the wet ecotype was increasingly robust relative to other ecotypes. In contrast, fitness showed evidence for local adaptation in wet and dry ecotypes with wet and mesic ecotypes producing little seed in western KS. Earlier flowering time in the dry ecotype suggests adaptation to end of season drought. Considering ecotype traits in homesite, the dry ecotype was characterized by reduced canopy area and diameter, short plants, and low vegetative biomass and putatively adapted to water limitation. The wet ecotype was robust, tall with high biomass, and wide leaves putatively adapted for the highly competitive, light-limited Eastern Great Plains. Ecotype differentiation was supported by random forest classification and PCA. We detected genetic differentiation and outlier genes associated with primarily precipitation. We identified candidate gene GA1 for which allele frequency associated with plant height. Sourcing of climate adapted ecotypes should be considered for restoration.}, }
@article {pmid33004993, year = {2020}, author = {Chamorro, D and Real, R and Muñoz, AR}, title = {Fuzzy sets allow gaging the extent and rate of species range shift due to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {16272}, pmid = {33004993}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Africa ; Animals ; Birds ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Demography/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fuzzy Logic ; }, abstract = {The recent modification of species distribution ranges in response to a warmer climate has constituted a major and generalized biogeographic change. The main driver of the shift in distribution is the disequilibrium of the species ranges with their climatic favourability. Most species distribution modelling approaches assume equilibrium of the distribution with the environment, which hinders their applicability to the analysis of this change. Using fuzzy set theory we assessed the response to climate change of a historically African species, the Atlas Long-legged Buzzard. With this approach we were able to quantify that the Buzzard's distribution is in a latitudinal disequilibrium of the species distribution with the current climate of 4 km, which is driving the species range northwards at a speed of around 1.3 km/year, i.e., it takes 3 years for the species to occupy new climatically favourable areas. This speed is expected to decelerate to 0.5 km/year in 2060-2080.}, }
@article {pmid33003323, year = {2020}, author = {Perrone, G and Ferrara, M and Medina, A and Pascale, M and Magan, N}, title = {Toxigenic Fungi and Mycotoxins in a Climate Change Scenario: Ecology, Genomics, Distribution, Prediction and Prevention of the Risk.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {33003323}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {Toxigenic fungi and mycotoxins are very common in food crops, with noticeable differences in their host specificity in terms of pathogenicity and toxin contamination. In addition, such crops may be infected with mixtures of mycotoxigenic fungi, resulting in multi-mycotoxin contamination. Climate represents the key factor in driving the fungal community structure and mycotoxin contamination levels pre- and post-harvest. Thus, there is significant interest in understanding the impact of interacting climate change-related abiotic factors (especially increased temperature, elevated CO2 and extremes in water availability) on the relative risks of mycotoxin contamination and impacts on food safety and security. We have thus examined the available information from the last decade on relative risks of mycotoxin contamination under future climate change scenarios and identified the gaps in knowledge. This has included the available scientific information on the ecology, genomics, distribution of toxigenic fungi and intervention strategies for mycotoxin control worldwide. In addition, some suggestions for prediction and prevention of mycotoxin risks are summarized together with future perspectives and research needs for a better understanding of the impacts of climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid33001303, year = {2020}, author = {Smyth, CE and Xu, Z and Lemprière, TC and Kurz, WA}, title = {Climate change mitigation in British Columbia's forest sector: GHG reductions, costs, and environmental impacts.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {21}, pmid = {33001303}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The potential contributions from forest-based greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions need to be quantified to develop pathways towards net negative emissions. Here we present results from a comparative analysis that examined mitigation options for British Columbia's forest sector. Mitigation scenarios were evaluated using a systems perspective that takes into account the changes in emissions and removals in forest ecosystems, in harvested wood product (HWP) carbon stocks, and in other sectors where wood products substitute for emission-intensive materials and fossil fuels. All mitigation activities were assessed relative to a forward-looking 'business as usual' baseline for three implementation levels. In addition to quantifying net GHG emission reductions, we assessed economic, and socio-economic impacts as well as other environmental indicators relating to forest species, age class, deadwood availability and future timber supply. We further considered risks of reversal for land-based scenarios, by assessing impacts of increasing future wildfires on stands that were not harvested.<br><br>RESULTS: Our spatially explicit analyses of forest sector mitigation options demonstrated a cost-effective portfolio of regionally differentiated scenarios that directed more of the harvested wood to longer-lived wood products, stopped burning of harvest residues and instead produced bioenergy to displace fossil fuel burning, and reduced harvest levels in regions with low disturbance rates. Domestically, net GHG emissions were reduced by an average of -9 MtCO2e year[-1] over 2020-2050 for a portfolio of mitigation activities at a default implementation level, with about 85% of the GHG emission reductions achieved below a cost of $50/tCO2e. Normalizing the net GHG reduction by changes in harvested wood levels permitted comparisons of the scenarios with different ambition levels, and showed that a 1 MtCO2 increase in cumulative harvested stemwood results in a 1 MtCO2e reduction in cumulative emissions, relative to the baseline, for the Higher Recovery scenario in 2070.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The analyses conducted in this study contribute to the global understanding of forest sector mitigation options by providing an integrated framework to synthesize the methods, assumptions, datasets and models needed to quantify mitigation activities using a systems approach. An understanding of economically feasible and socio-economically attractive mitigation scenarios along with trade offs for environmental indicators relating to species composition and age, helps decision makers with long-term planning for land sector contributions to GHG emission reduction efforts, and provides valuable information for stakeholder consultations.}, }
@article {pmid32999892, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, Y and Chen, J and Pan, T and Liu, Y and Zhang, Y and Ge, Q and Ciais, P and Penuelas, J}, title = {Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {e2019EF001331}, pmid = {32999892}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {Precipitation extremes are among the most serious consequences of climate change around the world. The observed and projected frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in some regions will greatly influence the social economy. The frequency of extreme precipitation and the population and economic exposure were quantified for a base period (1986-2005) and future periods (2016-2035 and 2046-2065) based on bias corrected projections of daily precipitation from five global climatic models forced with three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and projections of population and gross domestic product (GDP) in the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario produces the highest global population exposure for 2046-2065, with nearly 30% of the global population (2.97 × 10[9] persons) exposed to precipitation extremes >10 days/a. The RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario produces the highest global GDP exposure for 2046-2065, with a 5.56-fold increase relative to the base period, of up to (2.29 ± 0.20) × 10[15] purchasing power parity $-days. Socioeconomic effects are the primary contributor to the exposure changes at the global and continental scales. Population and GDP effects account for 64-77% and 78-91% of the total exposure change, respectively. The inequality of exposure indicates that more attention should be given to Asia and Africa due to their rapid increases in population and GDP. However, due to their dense populations and high GDPs, European countries, that is, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the Netherlands, should also commit to effective adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid32997673, year = {2020}, author = {Bauduin, S and Cumming, SG and St-Laurent, MH and McIntire, EJB}, title = {Integrating functional connectivity in designing networks of protected areas under climate change: A caribou case-study.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {e0238821}, pmid = {32997673}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Mammals ; *Reindeer ; }, abstract = {Land-use change and climate change are recognized as two main drivers of the current biodiversity decline. Protected areas help safeguard the landscape from additional anthropogenic disturbances and, when properly designed, can help species cope with climate change impacts. When designed to protect the regional biodiversity rather than to conserve focal species or landscape elements, protected areas need to cover a representative sample of the regional biodiversity and be functionally connected, facilitating individual movements among protected areas in a network to maximize their effectiveness. We developed a methodology to define effective protected areas to implement in a regional network using ecological representativeness and functional connectivity as criteria. We illustrated this methodology in the Gaspésie region of Québec, Canada. We simulated movements for the endangered Atlantic-Gaspésie caribou population (Rangifer tarandus caribou), using an individual-based model, to determine functional connectivity based on this large mammal. We created multiple protected areas network scenarios and evaluated their ecological representativeness and functional connectivity for the current and future conditions. We selected a subset of the most effective network scenarios and extracted the protected areas included in them. There was a tradeoff between ecological representativeness and functional connectivity for the created networks. Only a few protected areas among those available were repeatedly chosen in the most effective networks. Protected areas maximizing both ecological representativeness and functional connectivity represented suitable areas to implement in an effective protected areas network. These areas ensured that a representative sample of the regional biodiversity was covered by the network, as well as maximizing the movement over time between and inside the protected areas for the focal population.}, }
@article {pmid32997287, year = {2020}, author = {El Hamichi, S and Gold, A and Murray, TG and Graversen, VK}, title = {Pandemics, climate change, and the eye.}, journal = {Graefe's archive for clinical and experimental ophthalmology = Albrecht von Graefes Archiv fur klinische und experimentelle Ophthalmologie}, volume = {258}, number = {12}, pages = {2597-2601}, pmid = {32997287}, issn = {1435-702X}, mesh = {*COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Ophthalmology ; *Pandemics ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid32997248, year = {2021}, author = {Nawaz, MA and Seshadri, U and Kumar, P and Aqdas, R and Patwary, AK and Riaz, M}, title = {Nexus between green finance and climate change mitigation in N-11 and BRICS countries: empirical estimation through difference in differences (DID) approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {6}, pages = {6504-6519}, pmid = {32997248}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Economic Development ; Humans ; Investments ; }, abstract = {Green finance is inextricably linked to investment risk, particularly in emerging and developing economies (EMDE). This study uses the difference in differences (DID) method to evaluate the mean causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of the determinants of scaling up green financing and climate change mitigation in the N-11 countries from 2005 to 2019. After analyzing with a dummy for the treated countries, it was confirmed that the outcome covariates: rescon (renewable energy sources consumption), population, FDI, CO2, inflation, technical corporation grants, domestic credit to the private sector, and research and development are very significant in promoting green financing and climate change mitigation in the study countries. The probit regression results give a different outcome, as rescon, FID, CO2, Human Development Index (HDI), and investment in the energy sector by the private sector that will likely have an impact on the green financing and climate change mitigation of the study countries. Furthermore, after matching the analysis through the nearest neighbor matching, kernel matching, and radius matching, it produced mixed results for both the treated and the untreated countries. Either group experienced an improvement in green financing and climate change mitigation or a decrease. Overall, the DID showed no significant difference among the countries.}, }
@article {pmid32994663, year = {2021}, author = {Botzen, W and Duijndam, S and van Beukering, P}, title = {Lessons for climate policy from behavioral biases towards COVID-19 and climate change risks.}, journal = {World development}, volume = {137}, number = {}, pages = {105214}, pmid = {32994663}, issn = {0305-750X}, abstract = {COVID-19 and climate change share several striking similarities in terms of causes and consequences. For instance, COVID-19 and climate change affect deprived and vulnerable communities the most, which implies that effectively designed policies that mitigate these risks may also reduce the widening inequalities that they cause. Both problems can be characterized as low-probability-high consequence (LP-HC) risks, which are associated with various behavioral biases that imply that individual behavior deviates from rational risk assessments by experts and optimal preparedness strategies. One could view the COVID-19 pandemic as a rapid learning experiment about how to cope more effectively with climate change and develop actions for reducing its impacts before it is too late. However, the ensuing question relates to whether the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath will speed up climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, which depends on how individuals perceive and take action to reduce LP-HC risks. Using insights into behavioral biases in individual decisions about LP-HC risks based on decades of empirical research in psychology and behavioral economics, we illustrate how parallels can be drawn between decision-making processes about COVID-19 and climate change. In particular, we discuss six important risk-related behavioral biases in the context of individual decision making about these two global challenges to derive lessons for climate policy. We contend that the impacts from climate change can be mitigated if we proactively draw lessons from the pandemic, and implement policies that work with, instead of against, an individual's risk perceptions and biases. We conclude with recommendations for communication policies that make people pay attention to climate change risks and for linking government responses to the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath with environmental sustainability and climate action.}, }
@article {pmid32992276, year = {2020}, author = {Sauermann, CW and Leathwick, DM and Lieffering, M and Nielsen, MK}, title = {Climate change is likely to increase the development rate of anthelmintic resistance in equine cyathostomins in New Zealand.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology. Drugs and drug resistance}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {73-79}, pmid = {32992276}, issn = {2211-3207}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthelmintics/pharmacology ; Climate Change ; *Drug Resistance ; *Horse Diseases/drug therapy/parasitology ; Horses ; New Zealand ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to influence livestock production by increasing the prevalence of diseases, including parasites. The traditional practice of controlling nematodes in livestock by the application of anthelmintics is, however, increasingly compromised by the development of resistance to these drugs in parasite populations. This study used a previously developed simulation model of the entire equine cyathostomin lifecycle to investigate the effect a changing climate would have on the development of anthelmintic resistance. Climate data from six General Circulation Models based on four different Representative Concentration Pathways was available for three New Zealand locations. These projections were used to estimate the time resistance will take to develop in the middle (2040-49) and by the end (2090-99) of the century in relation to current (2006-15) conditions under two treatment scenarios of either two or six yearly whole-herd anthelmintic treatments. To facilitate comparison, a scenario without any treatments was included as a baseline. In addition, the size of the infective and parasitic stage nematode population during the third simulation year were estimated. The development of resistance varied between locations, time periods and anthelmintic treatment strategies. In general, the simulations indicated a more rapid development of resistance under future climates coinciding with an increase in the numbers of infective larvae on pasture and encysted parasitic stages. This was especially obvious when climate changes resulted in a longer period suitable for development of free-living parasite stages. A longer period suitable for larval development resulted in an increase in the average size of the parasite population with a larger contribution from eggs passed by resistant worms surviving the anthelmintic treatments. It is projected that climate change will decrease the ability to control livestock parasites by means of anthelmintic treatments and non-drug related strategies will become increasingly important for sustainable parasite control.}, }
@article {pmid32992267, year = {2020}, author = {Taylor, S}, title = {Anxiety disorders, climate change, and the challenges ahead: Introduction to the special issue.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {76}, number = {}, pages = {102313}, pmid = {32992267}, issn = {1873-7897}, mesh = {Anxiety Disorders/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change involves (1) increases in the prevalence of extreme weather events (e.g., wildfires, floods, hurricanes), (2) more gradual climatic changes (e.g., rising sea levels, desertification), and (3) increased risks of pandemics and other widespread disease outbreaks. Anxiety evoked by the threat of climate change can be either adaptive or maladaptive. Adaptive anxiety can motivate climate activism, such as efforts to reduce one's carbon footprint. Maladaptive anxiety can take the form of anxious passivity, where the person feels anxious but incapable of addressing the problem of climate change, and may take the form of an anxiety disorder triggered or exacerbated by climatic stressors. Such stressors may involve exposure to extreme weather events or may involve exposure to other stressors such as forced migration due to rising sea levels or desertification. Three types of interventions are needed to address the various types of climate-related anxiety: (1) programs that motivate people to overcome anxious passivity and thereby take action to mitigate the effects of climate change, (2) treatment programs that address anxiety associated with exposure to climatic stressors, and (3) programs that build resilience at an individual and community level, to help people better cope with the challenges ahead.}, }
@article {pmid32989603, year = {2020}, author = {Guo, B and Han, B and Yang, F and Chen, S and Liu, Y and Yang, W}, title = {Determining the contributions of climate change and human activities to the vegetation NPP dynamics in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China, from 2000 to 2015.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {10}, pages = {663}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08606-6}, pmid = {32989603}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {ZR2018BD001//Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province/ ; J18KA181//Project of Shandong Province Higher Educational Science and Technology Program/ ; QYZDY-SSW-DQC007//Key Research Program of Frontier Science of Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 2019LDE006//Open Research Fund of the Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 201902208005//University-Industry Collaborative Education Program/ ; lzujbky-2020-kb01//Open foundation of MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University and the fundamental Research funds for the Central Universities/ ; DLLJ202002//Open Fund of Key Laboratory for Digital Land and Resources of Jiangxi Province, East China University of Technology/ ; QHDX-2019-04//Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Geomatics and Digital Technology of Shandong Province; Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Geomatics Technology and Application Key Laboratory of Qinghai Province/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Reflecting on the change in the global biodiversity pattern, the Tibetan Plateau, considered to be a "natural laboratory" for analyzing environmental change in China and around the world, has suffered profound changes in the vegetation ecosystem. This study introduces the gravity center model and geographical detectors to examine and discuss the spatial-temporal change pattern and the driving mechanism behind vegetation net primary production (NPP) in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the year 2000 to 2015 while also quantitatively classifying the relative roles incorporated in the NPP change process. The study found that (1) from 2000 to 2015, the annual average NPP of the Tibetan Plateau demonstrated a declining trend from southeast to northwest. (2) The gravity center of vegetation NPP on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau seems to have shifted eastward in the past 16 years, indicating that the level of vegetation NPP in the east depicts a greater increment and growth rate than the west. (3) In the arid regions, temperature and rainfall appear as the dominant factors for vegetation NPP, while slope and aspect parameters have constantly assumed dominancy for the same in the tropical rainforest-monsoon ecological zone in southeastern Tibet. (4) The structure of vegetation NPP exhibits an interaction between human and natural factors, which enhances the influence of single factors. (5) Considering the global ecological change and related human activities, certain differences are observed in the dominant and interaction factors for different study periods and ecological subregions in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The research results could prove conclusive for vegetation ecological protection in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau.}, }
@article {pmid32988936, year = {2020}, author = {Barbosa, HP and Roué-Le Gall, A and Deloly, C and Regnaux, JP and Thomas, MF}, title = {Mapping the links between climate change and human health in urban areas: how is research conducted? A Scoping review protocol.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e034667}, pmid = {32988936}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Humans ; Peer Review ; Research Design ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Scientists from a wide variety of fields of knowledge are increasingly interested in climate change issues. The importance given to the phenomenon is explained by the uncertainties surrounding it and its consequences not yet fully known. However, there is wide agreement that human activities are modifying the Earth's climate beyond the natural cyclical changes and that these changes impact human health. This scoping review aimed to understand how research on the links between climate change and human health in urban areas is conducted and how this research is approached holistically or not.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This scoping review is mainly guided by the Arskey and O'Malley scoping review framework. A broad range of databases will be used, including PubMed, ScienceDirect, Web of Science Core Collection, GreenFILE and Information Science &amp; Technology Abstracts. Predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria will be used, with a focus on climate change and human health outcome studies published between January 1990 and July 2019. An interdisciplinary team has formulated search strategies and the reviewers will independently screen eligible studies for final study selection. We will apply a thematic analysis to evaluate and categorise the study findings. We expect to map the research according to the scientific research methods, the scientific fields and the determinants of health studied. Along these lines, we will be able to understand how holistic the research is.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No primary data will be collected since all data presented in this review are based on published articles and publicly available documents. Therefore, ethics committee approval is not a requirement. The findings will be disseminated through publication in a peer-reviewed journal, presentations at conferences relevant to the field of this research, as well as presentations to relevant stakeholders.}, }
@article {pmid32983583, year = {2020}, author = {Chrobak, U}, title = {Adapting to Climate Change: What Might Be Needed?.}, journal = {Engineering (Beijing, China)}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {1214-1216}, pmid = {32983583}, issn = {2095-8099}, }
@article {pmid32981672, year = {2021}, author = {Nicholas, PK and Breakey, S and Tagliareni, ME and Simmonds, K and Sabo, KK}, title = {Climate Change and Population Health: Incorporating Stages of Nursing's Political Development.}, journal = {Nursing outlook}, volume = {69}, number = {1}, pages = {65-73}, doi = {10.1016/j.outlook.2020.08.001}, pmid = {32981672}, issn = {1528-3968}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Nurse's Role ; Nursing/*trends ; *Politics ; Population Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest public health threat of the 21[st] century and is associated with environmental degradation and deleterious health consequences. In 2019, the Lancet Commission Report on Health and Climate Change: Ensuring that the Health of a Child Born Today Is Not Defined By a Changing Climate (Watts et al., 2019) examined the critical health issues that children will face in the era of climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) are responsible for an alarming increase in the warming of the planet, shifts in weather patterns, loss of arable land, and exacerbations of acute health issues, chronic health problems, and disaster-related health consequences. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of climate change and the associated deleterious health consequences in our climate-changing world. The paper will also examine the stages of political development to advance the 21[st] century role of the nursing profession in climate and health advocacy and policy.}, }
@article {pmid32981063, year = {2020}, author = {Braschler, B and Duffy, GA and Nortje, E and Kritzinger-Klopper, S and du Plessis, D and Karenyi, N and Leihy, RI and Chown, SL}, title = {Realised rather than fundamental thermal niches predict site occupancy: Implications for climate change forecasting.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {89}, number = {12}, pages = {2863-2875}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13358}, pmid = {32981063}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Hot Temperature ; South Africa ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Thermal performance traits are regularly used to make forecasts of the responses of ectotherms to anthropogenic environmental change, but such forecasts do not always differentiate between fundamental and realised thermal niches. Here we determine the relative extents to which variation in the fundamental and realised thermal niches accounts for current variation in species abundance and occupancy and assess the effects of niche-choice on future-climate response estimations. We investigated microclimate and macroclimate temperatures alongside abundance, occupancy, critical thermal limits and foraging activity of 52 ant species (accounting for >95% individuals collected) from a regional assemblage from across the Western Cape Province, South Africa, between 2003 and 2014. Capability of a species to occupy sites experiencing the most extreme temperatures, coupled with breadth of realised niche, explained most deviance in occupancy (up to 75%), while foraging temperature range and body mass explained up to 50.5% of observed variation in mean species abundance. When realised niches are used to forecast responses to climate change, large positive and negative effects among species are predicted under future conditions, in contrast to the forecasts of minimal impacts on all species that are indicated by fundamental niche predictions.}, }
@article {pmid32979891, year = {2021}, author = {Gaitán-Espitia, JD and Hobday, AJ}, title = {Evolutionary principles and genetic considerations for guiding conservation interventions under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {475-488}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15359}, pmid = {32979891}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {201809159002//The University of Hong Kong Seed Fund/ ; ECS 27124318//Research Grants Council of Hong Kong/ ; //CSIRO-OCE/ ; }, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Genetics, Population ; }, abstract = {Impacts of climate change are apparent in natural systems around the world. Many species are and will continue to struggle to persist in their current location as their preferred environment changes. Traditional conservation efforts aiming to prevent local extinctions have focused on two aspects that theoretically enhance genetic diversity-population connectivity and population size-through 'passive interventions' (such as protected areas and connectivity corridors). However, the exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity that we are experiencing as result of anthropogenic climate change has shifted conservation approaches to more 'active interventions' (such as rewilding, assisted gene flow, assisted evolution, artificial selection, genetic engineering). We integrate genetic/genomic approaches into an evolutionary biology framework in order to discuss with scientists, conservation managers and decision makers about the opportunities and risks of interventions that need careful consideration in order to avoid unwanted evolutionary outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid32977683, year = {2020}, author = {Adebayo, AL and Davidson Mhonde, R and DeNicola, N and Maibach, E}, title = {The Effectiveness of Narrative Versus Didactic Information Formats on Pregnant Women's Knowledge, Risk Perception, Self-Efficacy, and Information Seeking Related to Climate Change Health Risks.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {32977683}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Health Education/*methods ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; *Information Seeking Behavior ; Outcome Assessment, Health Care ; Patient Education as Topic/*methods ; Perception ; Pregnancy ; Pregnant Women/education/*psychology ; *Self Efficacy ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global threat that poses significant risks to pregnant women and to their developing fetus and newborn. Educating pregnant women about the risks to their pregnancy may improve maternal and child health outcomes. Prior research suggests that presenting health information in narrative format can be more effective than a didactic format. Hence, the purpose of this study was to test the effectiveness of two brief educational interventions in a diverse group of pregnant women (n = 151). Specifically, using a post-test only randomized experiment, we compared the effectiveness of brief information presented in a narrative format versus a didactic format; both information formats were also compared to a no information control group. Outcome measures included pregnant women's actual and perceived knowledge, risk perception, affective assessment, self-efficacy, intention to take protective behaviors, and subsequent information seeking behavior. As hypothesized, for all outcome measures, the narrative format was more effective than the didactic format. These results suggest the benefits of a narrative approach (versus a didactic approach) to educating pregnant women about the maternal and child health threats posed by climate change. This study adds to a growing literature on the effectiveness of narrative-based approaches to health communication.}, }
@article {pmid32977675, year = {2020}, author = {Usoltsev, VA and Shobairi, SOR and Tsepordey, IS}, title = {Are There Differences in the Reaction of the Light-Tolerant Subgenus Pinus spp. Biomass to Climate Change as Compared to Light-Intolerant Genus Picea spp.?.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {32977675}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Currently, the problem of the impact of climate change on the productivity of forest ecosystems and their carbon-depositing capacity is far from being solved. Therefore, this paper presents the models for the stand biomass of the two-needled subgenus' (Pinus spp.) and the genus Picea spp.'s trends along the trans-Eurasian hydrothermal gradients, designed for pure stands in a number of 2110- and 870-sample plots with Pinus and Picea correspondingly. It was found that in the case of an increase in mean winter temperatures by 1 °C, pine and spruce respond by increasing the biomass of most components, and in the case of an increase in the annual sum of precipitation by 100 mm, the total, aboveground, stem and root biomasses of pine and spruce react the same way, but crown biomass reacts in the opposite way. Therefore, all identified trends are species-specific.}, }
@article {pmid32977553, year = {2020}, author = {González-Orenga, S and Trif, C and Donat-Torres, MP and Llinares, JV and Collado, F and Ferrer-Gallego, PP and Laguna, E and Boscaiu, M and Vicente, O}, title = {Responses to Increased Salinity and Severe Drought in the Eastern Iberian Endemic Species Thalictrum maritimum (Ranunculaceae), Threatened by Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {32977553}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {AICO/2017/039//Generalitat Valenciana/ ; }, abstract = {Thalictrum maritimum is an endangered, endemic species in East Spain, growing in areas of relatively low salinity in littoral salt marshes. A regression of its populations and the number of individuals has been registered in the last decade. This study aimed at establishing the causes of this reduction using a multidisciplinary approach, including climatic, ecological, physiological and biochemical analyses. The climatic data indicated that there was a direct negative correlation between increased drought, especially during autumn, and the number of individuals censused in the area of study. The susceptibility of this species to water deficit was confirmed by the analysis of growth parameters upon a water deficit treatment applied under controlled greenhouse conditions, with the plants withstanding only 23 days of complete absence of irrigation. On the other hand, increased salinity does not seem to be a risk factor for this species, which behaves as a halophyte, tolerating in controlled treatments salinities much higher than those registered in its natural habitat. The most relevant mechanisms of salt tolerance in T. maritimum appear to be based on the control of ion transport, by (i) the active transport of toxic ions to the aerial parts of the plants at high external salinity-where they are presumably stored in the leaf vacuoles to avoid their deleterious effects in the cytosol, (ii) the maintenance of K[+] concentrations in belowground and aboveground organs, despite the increase of Na[+] levels, and (iii) the salt-induced accumulation of Ca[2+], particularly in stems and leaves. This study provides useful information for the management of the conservation plans of this rare and endangered species.}, }
@article {pmid32974093, year = {2020}, author = {Mirosław-Świątek, D and Marcinkowski, P and Kochanek, K and Wassen, MJ}, title = {The impact of climate change on flow conditions and wetland ecosystems in the Lower Biebrza River (Poland).}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {e9778}, pmid = {32974093}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Water plays a key role in the functioning of wetlands and a shortage or contamination of it leads to changes in habitat conditions and degradation of ecosystems. This article scrutinizes the impact of climate change on the hydrological characteristics of floods (maximum flow, duration, volume) in the River Biebrza wetlands (North-East Poland). We analysed the trends in duration and volume of flood and maximum discharges in the historical period 1970-2000 and predicted these for the future periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100, respectively. Next we assessed the impact on the wetland ecosystems. The basis of our assessments consists of statistical analyses of hydrographs and calculations by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model and considering nine bias-corrected climate models. The results indicate that both volume and duration of winter floods will keep increasing continuously under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. The reduction in peak annual floods is expected to decline slightly in both scenarios. On the other hand, the analysis of trends in mean and standard deviation revealed negligible tendencies in the datasets for summer and winter hydrological seasons within the three time frames analysed (1970-2000; 2020-2050; 2070-2100). We foresee several future implications for the floodplain ecosystems. Shifts in transversal ecosystem zonation parallel to the river will likely take place with more highly productive flood tolerant vegetation types. Nutrient availability and algal blooms during spring inundations will likely increase. Slowdown of organic matter turnover later in summer will lead to a higher peat accumulation rate. Logistical problems with summer mowing and removal of bushes in winter may enhance shrub encroachment.}, }
@article {pmid32973346, year = {2019}, author = {Gaind, N and Stoye, E}, title = {How climate change is melting, drying and flooding Earth - in pictures.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02793-0}, pmid = {32973346}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32973027, year = {2020}, author = {Laufkötter, C and Zscheischler, J and Frölicher, TL}, title = {High-impact marine heatwaves attributable to human-induced global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {369}, number = {6511}, pages = {1621-1625}, doi = {10.1126/science.aba0690}, pmid = {32973027}, issn = {1095-9203}, support = {179876/SNSF_/Swiss National Science Foundation/Switzerland ; }, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Hot Temperature ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs)-periods of extremely high ocean temperatures in specific regions-have occurred in all of Earth's ocean basins over the past two decades, with severe negative impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems. However, for most individual MHWs, it is unclear to what extent they have been altered by human-induced climate change. We show that the occurrence probabilities of the duration, intensity, and cumulative intensity of most documented, large, and impactful MHWs have increased more than 20-fold as a result of anthropogenic climate change. MHWs that occurred only once every hundreds to thousands of years in the preindustrial climate are projected to become decadal to centennial events under 1.5°C warming conditions and annual to decadal events under 3°C warming conditions. Thus, ambitious climate targets are indispensable to reduce the risks of substantial MHW impacts.}, }
@article {pmid32971453, year = {2020}, author = {Pandey, N and Rana, D and Chandrakar, G and Gowda, GB and Patil, NB and Pandi G, GP and Annamalai, M and Pokhare, SS and Rath, PC and Adak, T}, title = {Role of climate change variables (standing water and rainfall) on dissipation of chlorantraniliprole from a simulated rice ecosystem.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {205}, number = {}, pages = {111324}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2020.111324}, pmid = {32971453}, issn = {1090-2414}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Insecticides/*analysis ; *Oryza ; Pesticides/analysis ; Prospective Studies ; *Rain ; Soil/chemistry ; Soil Pollutants/analysis ; Water/chemistry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; ortho-Aminobenzoates/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Chlorantraniliprole (CAP) is extensively used for rice pest management. Lack of information on the role of standing water and amount and timing of rainfall on CAP dissipation in rice ecosystem could hamper its prospective use. Present study was performed to investigate the effects of different water regimes (saturated, 5 and 10 cm standing water) and simulated rainfall (40 and 100 mm occurred at 4, 8 and 24 h after CAP application) on leaching, surface runoff and dissipation of CAP into components of rice ecosystem. The results showed highest concentration of CAP residues in soil and plant under saturated condition followed by 5 and 10 cm standing water conditions. Whereas, the highest concentration of CAP in leachates was detected under 10 cm standing water (12.19 ng mL[-1]). The results revealed large amount of leaching (21.99 ng mL[-1]) and surface runoff (42.25 ng mL[-1]) losses of CAP when 100 mm rainfall occurred at 4 h after pesticide application. The total quantity of CAP residues in soil and plant was highest when rainfall occurred at 24 h after pesticide application under both the rainfall amounts. Water stagnation and high intensity rainfall occurred shortly after pesticide application will contribute to pesticide loss to non-target sites through surface run-off and leaching. There will be less pesticide available in soil for plant uptake which may not be sufficient to kill the target organisms.}, }
@article {pmid32970390, year = {2020}, author = {Tagliabue, A and Barrier, N and Du Pontavice, H and Kwiatkowski, L and Aumont, O and Bopp, L and Cheung, WWL and Gascuel, D and Maury, O}, title = {An iron cycle cascade governs the response of equatorial Pacific ecosystems to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {6168-6179}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15316}, pmid = {32970390}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {724289//H2020 European Research Council/ ; //Nippon Foundation/ ; //Region Bretagne/ ; ANR-18-ERC2-0001-01//Agence Nationale de la Recherche/ ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Iron ; }, abstract = {Earth System Models project that global climate change will reduce ocean net primary production (NPP), upper trophic level biota biomass and potential fisheries catches in the future, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, projections from Earth System Models are undermined by poorly constrained assumptions regarding the biological cycling of iron, which is the main limiting resource for NPP over large parts of the ocean. In this study, we show that the climate change trends in NPP and the biomass of upper trophic levels are strongly affected by modifying assumptions associated with phytoplankton iron uptake. Using a suite of model experiments, we find 21st century climate change impacts on regional NPP range from -12.3% to +2.4% under a high emissions climate change scenario. This wide range arises from variations in the efficiency of iron retention in the upper ocean in the eastern equatorial Pacific across different scenarios of biological iron uptake, which affect the strength of regional iron limitation. Those scenarios where nitrogen limitation replaced iron limitation showed the largest projected NPP declines, while those where iron limitation was more resilient displayed little future change. All model scenarios have similar skill in reproducing past inter-annual variations in regional ocean NPP, largely due to limited change in the historical period. Ultimately, projections of end of century upper trophic level biomass change are altered by 50%-80% across all plausible scenarios. Overall, we find that uncertainties in the biological iron cycle cascade through open ocean pelagic ecosystems, from plankton to fish, affecting their evolution under climate change. This highlights additional challenges to developing effective conservation and fisheries management policies under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32970294, year = {2020}, author = {El Amiri, N and Abernethy, P and Spence, N and Zakus, D and Kara, TA and Schuster-Wallace, C}, title = {Community of practice: an effective mechanism to strengthen capacity in climate change and health.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {111}, number = {6}, pages = {862-868}, pmid = {32970294}, issn = {1920-7476}, mesh = {Canada ; Capacity Building ; *Climate Change ; *Community Health Services/organization &amp; administration ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, abstract = {SETTING: Climate change is one of the greatest threats to global health in the twenty-first century and has recently been declared a health emergency. The lack of effective dissemination of emerging evidence on climate change health risks, effects, and innovative interventions to health professionals presents one of the greatest challenges to climate action today.<br><br>INTERVENTION: To identify and address the knowledge gaps at the intersection of health and climate change, the Canadian Coalition for Global Health Research (CCGHR) established a Working Group on Climate Change and Health (WGCCH). WGCCH is evolving organically into a community of practice (CoP) that aims to elevate knowledge brokering on climate change and health and expand to global multi-, inter-, and transdisciplinary realms.<br><br>OUTCOMES: To date, the WGCCH established a regular webinar series to share expert knowledge from around the world on intersections between climate change and health, developed short summaries on climate change impacts on broad health challenges, supported young professional training, and enhanced climate health research capacity and skills through collegial network development and other collaborative projects that emerged from CoP activities.<br><br>IMPLICATIONS: This paper proposes that WGCCH may serve as an example of an effective strategy to address the lack of opportunities for collaborative engagement and mutual learning between health researchers and practitioners, other disciplines, and the general public. Our experiences and lessons learned provide opportunities to learn from the growing pains and successes of an emerging climate change and health-focused CoP.}, }
@article {pmid32968021, year = {2020}, author = {Nesbitt, J}, title = {Ancient agriculture and climate change on the north coast of Peru.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {40}, pages = {24617-24619}, pmid = {32968021}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Farms ; Peru ; }, }
@article {pmid32967048, year = {2021}, author = {Pellegrino, G and Mahmoudi, M and Palermo, AM}, title = {Pollen viability of Euro-Mediterranean orchids under different storage conditions: The possible effects of climate change.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {140-147}, doi = {10.1111/plb.13185}, pmid = {32967048}, issn = {1438-8677}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; Freezing ; Germination ; *Hot Temperature ; Orchidaceae/*physiology ; Pollen/*physiology ; Pollination ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {The future impact of climate change and a warmer world is a matter of great concern. We therefore aimed to evaluate the effects of temperature on pollen viability and fruit set of Mediterranean orchids. The in vitro and controlled pollination experiments were performed to evaluate the ability of pollinia stored at lower and higher temperatures to germinate and produce fruits and seeds containing viable embryos. In all of the examined orchids, pollen stored at -20 °C remained fully viable for up to 3 years, reducing its percentage germination from year 4 onwards. Pollinia stored at higher temperatures had a drastic reduction in vitality after 2 days at 41-44 °C, while pollinia stored at 47-50 °C did not show any pollen tube growth. The different levels of pollen viability duration among the examined orchids can be related to their peculiar reproductive biology and pollination ecology. The germinability of pollinia stored at lower temperatures for long periods suggests that orchid pollinia can be conserved ex situ. In contrast, higher temperatures can have harmful effects on the vitality of pollen and consequently on reproductive success of the plants. To our knowledge, this is the first report demonstrating the effects of global change on orchid pollen, and on pollen ability to tolerate, or not, higher air temperatures. Although vegetative reproduction allows orchids to survive a few consecutive warm years, higher temperatures for several consecutive years can have dramatic effects on reproductive success of orchids.}, }
@article {pmid32964662, year = {2020}, author = {Laidre, KL and Atkinson, SN and Regehr, EV and Stern, HL and Born, EW and Wiig, &#xd8; and Lunn, NJ and Dyck, M and Heagerty, P and Cohen, BR}, title = {Transient benefits of climate change for a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {6251-6265}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15286}, pmid = {32964662}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//University of Washington/ ; //The Association of Greenland Hunters and Fishermen/ ; //Avannaa Resources Inc./ ; //Bureau of Mineral and Petroleum (Nuuk)/ ; //Canada Department of National Defense/ ; //Danish Civil Aviation Authorities/ ; //Environment and Climate Change Canada/ ; //Environmental Protection Agency of Denmark/ ; //Government of Nunavut/ ; //Greenland Department of Fisheries, Hunting and Agriculture/ ; //Greenland Department of the Environment/ ; //Greenland Institute of Natural Resources (GINR)/ ; //Iviq Hunters and Trappers Organization/ ; NNX13AN28G/NASA/NASA/United States ; NNX11A063G//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ ; //Nuna Minerals Inc./ ; //Nunavut General Monitoring Program/ ; //Nunavut Wildlife Management Board/ ; //Polar Continental Shelf Project/ ; //Qaanaap Kommunia/ ; //Royal Canadian Mounted Police/ ; //Universal Helicopters/ ; //University of Oslo/ ; //Vetlesen Foundation/ ; //World Wildlife Fund/ ; NNX13AN28G/NASA/NASA/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Ice Cover ; Male ; *Ursidae ; }, abstract = {Kane Basin (KB) is one of the world's most northerly polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations, where bears have historically inhabited a mix of thick multiyear and annual sea ice year-round. Currently, KB is transitioning to a seasonally ice-free region because of climate change. This ecological shift has been hypothesized to benefit polar bears in the near-term due to thinner ice with increased biological production, although this has not been demonstrated empirically. We assess sea-ice changes in KB together with changes in polar bear movements, seasonal ranges, body condition, and reproductive metrics obtained from capture-recapture (physical and genetic) and satellite telemetry studies during two study periods (1993-1997 and 2012-2016). The annual cycle of sea-ice habitat in KB shifted from a year-round ice platform (~50% coverage in summer) in the 1990s to nearly complete melt-out in summer (<5% coverage) in the 2010s. The mean duration between sea-ice retreat and advance increased from 109 to 160 days (p = .004). Between the 1990s and 2010s, adult female (AF) seasonal ranges more than doubled in spring and summer and were significantly larger in all months. Body condition scores improved for all ages and both sexes. Mean litter sizes of cubs-of-the-year (C0s) and yearlings (C1s), and the number of C1s per AF, did not change between decades. The date of spring sea-ice retreat in the previous year was positively correlated with C1 litter size, suggesting smaller litters following years with earlier sea-ice breakup. Our study provides evidence for range expansion, improved body condition, and stable reproductive performance in the KB polar bear subpopulation. These changes, together with a likely increasing subpopulation abundance, may reflect the shift from thick, multiyear ice to thinner, seasonal ice with higher biological productivity. The duration of these benefits is unknown because, under unmitigated climate change, continued sea-ice loss is expected to eventually have negative demographic and ecological effects on all polar bears.}, }
@article {pmid32964631, year = {2021}, author = {Vineis, P and Huybrechts, I and Millett, C and Weiderpass, E}, title = {Climate change and cancer: converging policies.}, journal = {Molecular oncology}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {764-769}, pmid = {32964631}, issn = {1878-0261}, support = {MR/S019669/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Carcinogens, Environmental/toxicity ; *Climate Change ; Fast Foods/adverse effects ; Food Quality ; Humans ; Neoplasms/*etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Intervening on risk factors for noncommunicable diseases (including cancer) in industrialized countries could achieve a reduction of between 30% and 40% of premature deaths. In the meantime, the need to intervene against the threat of climate change has become obvious. CO2 emissions must be reduced by 45% by the year 2030 and to zero by 2050 according to recent agreements. We propose an approach in which interventions are designed to prevent diseases and jointly mitigate climate change, the so-called cobenefits. The present article describes some examples of how climate change mitigation and cancer prevention could go hand in hand: tobacco control, food production, and transportation (air pollution). Many others can be identified. The advantage of the proposed approach is that both long-term (climate) and short-term (health) benefits can be accrued with appropriate intersectoral policies.}, }
@article {pmid32964436, year = {2020}, author = {Greever, C and Ramirez-Aguilar, K and Connelly, J}, title = {Connections between laboratory research and climate change: what scientists and policy makers can do to reduce environmental impacts.}, journal = {FEBS letters}, volume = {594}, number = {19}, pages = {3079-3085}, doi = {10.1002/1873-3468.13932}, pmid = {32964436}, issn = {1873-3468}, mesh = {*Administrative Personnel ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Humans ; *Laboratory Personnel ; *Research ; Research Support as Topic/economics ; }, }
@article {pmid32963511, year = {2020}, author = {Kirelli, Y and Arslankaya, S}, title = {Sentiment Analysis of Shared Tweets on Global Warming on Twitter with Data Mining Methods: A Case Study on Turkish Language.}, journal = {Computational intelligence and neuroscience}, volume = {2020}, number = {}, pages = {1904172}, pmid = {32963511}, issn = {1687-5273}, mesh = {*Data Mining ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Language ; *Machine Learning ; *Public Opinion ; *Social Media ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {As the usage of social media has increased, the size of shared data has instantly surged and this has been an important source of research for environmental issues as it has been with popular topics. Sentiment analysis has been used to determine people's sensitivity and behavior in environmental issues. However, the analysis of Turkish texts has not been investigated much in literature. In this article, sentiment analysis of Turkish tweets about global warming and climate change is determined by machine learning methods. In this regard, by using algorithms that are determined by supervised methods (linear classifiers and probabilistic classifiers) with trained thirty thousand randomly selected Turkish tweets, sentiment intensity (positive, negative, and neutral) has been detected and algorithm performance ratios have been compared. This study also provides benchmarking results for future sentiment analysis studies on Turkish texts.}, }
@article {pmid32960336, year = {2020}, author = {Alford, L and Louâpre, P and Mougel, F and van Baaren, J}, title = {Measuring the evolutionary potential of a winter-active parasitic wasp to climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {194}, number = {1-2}, pages = {41-50}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-020-04761-2}, pmid = {32960336}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {326943//FP7 People: Marie-Curie Actions/ ; 841952//H2020 Marie Sk&#x142;odowska-Curie Actions/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Aphids ; Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Seasons ; *Wasps/genetics ; }, abstract = {In temperate climates, as a consequence of warming winters, an increasing number of ectothermic species are remaining active throughout winter months instead of diapausing, rendering them increasingly vulnerable to unpredictable cold events. One species displaying a shift in overwintering strategy is the parasitoid wasp and biological control agent Aphidius avenae. The current study aimed to better understand the consequence of a changing overwintering strategy on the evolutionary potential of an insect population to adapt to the cold stress events, set to increase in frequency, even during milder winters. Using a parental half-sibling breeding design, narrow-sense heritability of the cold tolerance, morphology and longevity of A. avenae was estimated. The heritability of cold tolerance was estimated at 0.07 (CI95% = [0.00; 0.25]) for the Critical Thermal Minima (CTmin) and 0.11 (CI95% = [0.00; 0.34]) for chill coma temperature; estimates much lower than those obtained for morphological traits (tibia length 0.20 (CI95% = [0.03; 0.37]); head width 0.23 (CI95% = [0.09; 0.39]); wing surface area 0.28 (CI95% = [0.11; 0.47])), although comparable with the heritability estimate of 0.12 obtained for longevity (CI95% = [0.00; 0.25]). The heritability estimates obtained thus suggest that A. avenae possesses low adaptive potential against cold stress. If such estimates are indicative of the evolutionary potential of A. avenae cold tolerance, more emphasis may be placed on adaptive phenotypic plasticity at the individual level to persist in a changing climate, with potential implications for the biological control function they provide.}, }
@article {pmid32957527, year = {2020}, author = {Juhász, O and Fürjes-Mikó, &#xc1; and Tenyér, A and Somogyi, A&#xc1; and Aguilon, DJ and Kiss, PJ and Bátori, Z and Maák, I}, title = {Consequences of Climate Change-Induced Habitat Conversions on Red Wood Ants in a Central European Mountain: A Case Study.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {32957527}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {2017-01-X-NZ8-01042//Fundacja na rzecz Nauki Polskiej/ ; NKFIH K 124796//Orsz&#xe1;gos Tudom&#xe1;nyos Kutat&#xe1;si Alapprogramok/ ; }, abstract = {The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are one of the major concerns of conservation biology. A cascade of negative effects is expected to affect various ecosystems, one of which is Central European coniferous forests and their unique biota. These coniferous forests are the primary habitat of many forest specialist species such as red wood ants. Climate change-induced rising of temperature allows trees to skip winter hibernation, making them more vulnerable to storms that cause wind felling, and in turn, promotes bark beetle infestations that results in unscheduled clear-cuttings. Red wood ants can also be exposed to such habitat changes. We investigated the effects of bark beetle-induced clear-cutting and the absence of coniferous trees on colonies of Formica polyctena, including a mixed-coniferous forest as a reference. Our aim was to investigate how these habitat features affect the nest characteristics and nesting habits of F. polyctena. Our results indicate that, in the absence of conifers, F. polyctena tend to use different alternatives for nest material, colony structure, and food sources. However, the vitality of F. polyctena colonies significantly decreased (smaller nest mound volumes). Our study highlights the ecological flexibility of this forest specialist and its potential to survive under extreme conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32957002, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, S and Bagrodia, R and Pfeffer, CC and Meli, L and Bonanno, GA}, title = {Anxiety and resilience in the face of natural disasters associated with climate change: A review and methodological critique.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {76}, number = {}, pages = {102297}, doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102297}, pmid = {32957002}, issn = {1873-7897}, mesh = {Anxiety ; Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Disasters ; Humans ; *Resilience, Psychological ; Retrospective Studies ; }, abstract = {In the past two decades, climate change-related natural disasters, such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts have become increasingly frequent and severe, impacting the emotional and psychological well-being of those who are directly or indirectly exposed to them. Despite great interest in understanding differences in anxiety and resilience in response to natural disasters, enthusiasm appears to outstrip empirical clarity, as there remains considerable ambiguity as to determinants of resilient or pathological outcomes following exposure to natural disasters. In addition, there are several major methodological limitations in climate change and related natural disaster research, including the use of univariate analyses, cross-sectional design, and retrospective measures. Keeping these limitations in mind, we first review literature examining the mental health outcomes of natural disasters. Findings suggest that, overall, resilience is more common than pathological outcomes. Second, we use a multi-dimensional framework of resilience to selectively review factors at the event, individual, as well as family and community levels that could help inform resilient or pathological outcomes. Finally, we consider key limitations and future directions for research and practice in the field of anxiety and resilience in response to climate disasters.}, }
@article {pmid32952240, year = {2020}, author = {Goodman, MK and Doyle, J and Farrell, N}, title = {Practising everyday climate cultures: understanding the cultural politics of climate change.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {163}, number = {1}, pages = {1-7}, pmid = {32952240}, issn = {0165-0009}, }
@article {pmid32951081, year = {2020}, author = {Deuffic, P and Garms, M and He, J and Brahic, E and Yang, H and Mayer, M}, title = {Forest Dieback, a Tangible Proof of Climate Change? A Cross-Comparison of Forest Stakeholders' Perceptions and Strategies in the Mountain Forests of Europe and China.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {66}, number = {5}, pages = {858-872}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01363-9}, pmid = {32951081}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Forests ; France ; Germany ; Perception ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Forest dieback due to climate change poses a risk to mountain forests throughout the world, and has severe consequences in terms of lost ecosystem services for forest stakeholders. This contribution aims to analyze how forest stakeholders perceive forest dieback, and the way in which they adapt to it. We conducted qualitative in-depth interviews in three mid-mountain case study areas in France, Germany, and China, enabling a cross-comparison of different settings affected by forest dieback. Results show that forest dieback is not a new phenomenon for stakeholders who consider that it has increased over the last few decades, due to rising temperatures and extreme weather events. In all survey areas, respondents consider forest dieback as tangible proof of climate change, identifying context-specific impacts with varying levels of severity. Cause-effect relationships are not easy to establish. Forest stakeholders are unable to determine whether climate change is a triggering or aggravating factor. For adaptive strategies, respondents can be grouped into three main profiles: proactive, reactive, and wait-and-see forest owners. These types of stakeholders differ in terms of their investment capacities, economic dependency, emotional attachment to forests, knowledge level, and capacity to obtain actionable information through participation in institutional networks.}, }
@article {pmid32950786, year = {2020}, author = {Peduzzi, E and Baldi, MG and Pisoni, E and Kona, A and Bertoldi, P and Monforti-Ferrario, F}, title = {Impacts of a climate change initiative on air pollutant emissions: Insights from the Covenant of Mayors.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {145}, number = {}, pages = {106029}, pmid = {32950786}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Climate Change ; Europe ; *Greenhouse Gases ; }, abstract = {The Covenant of Mayors (CoM) is a successful European initiative which encourages local authorities to be proactive in fighting climate change. Recently, it expanded to cover adaptation and energy access/poverty and became a global initiative. In this study we investigate an additional perspective: synergies and trade-offs between climate and air quality. Signatories pledge to reduce their Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and voluntarily report their emissions, energy consumption and the measures that they carry out to reach their goals. We develop a methodology to estimate air pollutant emissions corresponding to CO2 emissions CoM signatories report, using information they already submit and national estimates of air pollutant emission factors. The methodology is applied to over 1600 signatories in Europe, representing over 80 million inhabitants. Results show that, in general, signatories are reducing both types of emissions. However, there are also cases where emissions increase. We explore the reasons behind these changes and highlight the role of technological improvement. This work calls for an increased coherence between climate and air quality plans at the local scale and provides a first step and a tool to support signatories, even the smallest ones, to move in this direction.}, }
@article {pmid32944993, year = {2021}, author = {Tol, RSJ}, title = {The distributional impact of climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1504}, number = {1}, pages = {63-75}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14497}, pmid = {32944993}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Poorer, hotter countries are more vulnerable to climate change and will experience more negative impacts. The pattern of vulnerability between countries is used to impute impacts for income deciles within countries, for administrative regions, and for grid cells. Almost three-quarters of people will face worse impacts than their country average. Between-country variation is larger than within-country variation for income deciles and regions, and about as large for grid cells. I here revisit earlier estimates of the economic impact of climate change and extend the analysis to impute the distribution of impacts within countries.}, }
@article {pmid32944421, year = {2020}, author = {Bi, X and Li, B and Zhang, L and Nan, B and Zhang, X and Yang, Z}, title = {Response of grassland productivity to climate change and anthropogenic activities in arid regions of Central Asia.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {e9797}, pmid = {32944421}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Quantitative evaluations of the relative impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activity on grasslands are significant for understanding grassland degradation mechanisms and controlling degraded grasslands. However, our knowledge about the effects of anthropogenic activities and climate change on the grassland in a mountain basin system in arid regions of Central Asia is still subject to great uncertainties.<br><br>METHODS: In this research, we have chosen the net primary productivity (NPP) as an index for revealing grassland dynamics processes. Moreover, the human appropriation of net primary production (NPPH), which was calculated as the potential NPP (NPPP) minus the actual NPP (NPPA), was applied to distinguish the relative influences of climate change and human activities on the grassland NPP variations in a mountain basin system of Central Asia from 2001-2015.<br><br>RESULTS: The results indicated that the grassland NPPA showed an increasing trend (35.88%) that was smaller than the decreasing trend (64.12%). The respective contributions of human activity, climate change and the two together to the increase in the NPPA were 6.19%, 81.30% and 12.51%, respectively. Human activity was largely responsible for the decrease in the grassland NPPA, with the area experiencing human-induced decreases accounting for 98.21% of the total decreased area, which mainly occurred during spring/autumn pasture and winter pasture. Furthermore, the average grazing pressure index (GPI) values of summer pastures, spring/autumn pasture and winter pastures were 1.04, 3.03 and 1.83, respectively, from 2001-2015. In addition, negative correlations between the NPP and GPI occupied most of the research area (92.41%).<br><br>DISCUSSION: Our results indicate that: (i) anthropogenic activities were the primary cause of the reduction in the grassland NPP, especially grazing activities. (ii) For areas where the grassland NPP has increased, precipitation was the dominant climatic factor over temperature in controlling the grassland NPP changes in the study area. (iii) The findings of the current research indicate that some measures should be taken to reduce livestock pressure, and artificial grasslands can be built along the Irtysh River and the Ulungur River to relieve grazing pressure on spring/autumn pastures and winter pastures. Our results could provide reliable information for grassland management and the prevention of grassland degradation in arid regions of Central Asia.}, }
@article {pmid32943777, year = {2019}, author = {Searles Jones, J}, title = {To solve climate change, remember the ocean.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02832-w}, pmid = {32943777}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32943685, year = {2020}, author = {Alemazkoor, N and Rachunok, B and Chavas, DR and Staid, A and Louhghalam, A and Nateghi, R and Tootkaboni, M}, title = {Hurricane-induced power outage risk under climate change is primarily driven by the uncertainty in projections of future hurricane frequency.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {15270}, pmid = {32943685}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Nine in ten major outages in the US have been caused by hurricanes. Long-term outage risk is a function of climate change-triggered shifts in hurricane frequency and intensity; yet projections of both remain highly uncertain. However, outage risk models do not account for the epistemic uncertainties in physics-based hurricane projections under climate change, largely due to the extreme computational complexity. Instead they use simple probabilistic assumptions to model such uncertainties. Here, we propose a transparent and efficient framework to, for the first time, bridge the physics-based hurricane projections and intricate outage risk models. We find that uncertainty in projections of the frequency of weaker storms explains over 95% of the uncertainty in outage projections; thus, reducing this uncertainty will greatly improve outage risk management. We also show that the expected annual fraction of affected customers exhibits large variances, warranting the adoption of robust resilience investment strategies and climate-informed regulatory frameworks.}, }
@article {pmid32942727, year = {2020}, author = {You, M and Ju, Y}, title = {The Outrage Effect of Personal Stake, Familiarity, Effects on Children, and Fairness on Climate Change Risk Perception Moderated by Political Orientation.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {32942727}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; *Emotions ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Republic of Korea ; *Risk ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Trust ; }, abstract = {Outrage factors are perceived characteristics of risk that provoke emotional responses and influence risk perception. Although several studies examined how multiple influences affect climate change risk perception, outrage factors have not been comprehensively assessed in the context of climate change risk perception. Using an online survey in South Korea (n = 592), we investigated outrage factors associated with climate change risk perception and whether political orientation moderates these outrage effects. We considered 11 of 20 outrage factors: voluntariness, controllability, familiarity, fairness, uncertainty, delayed effects, effects on children, trust, reversibility, personal stake, and human vs. natural origin. Factors that overlapped with the selected outrage factors or those that were not relevant to climate change were excluded. The survey revealed that the climate change risk perception of an individual increased when they perceived climate change to be relevant to their personal lives, when they felt unfamiliar with climate change, when they thought climate change would have a severe impact on children, or when they thought climate change would have unequal consequences. Moreover, respondents who identified as political conservatives were subject to a greater outrage effect of personal stake for climate change. The implications of the outrage effect on climate change risk perception and the greater vulnerability of conservatives to outrage effect are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid32940763, year = {2020}, author = {Halupka, L and Czyż, B and Macias Dominguez, CM}, title = {The effect of climate change on laying dates, clutch size and productivity of Eurasian Coots Fulica atra.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {11}, pages = {1857-1863}, pmid = {32940763}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {2017/27/B/NZ8/00465//Narodowe Centrum Nauki/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Clutch Size ; Female ; Nesting Behavior ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting many living organisms; however, the responses of many of them remain unknown. In this paper, we present the results regarding the response of a bird species from the rallid family to the increased temperatures during the breeding season. We analysed the breeding data of Eurasian Coots nesting during 30 seasons between 1972 and 2019. During the study period, mean temperatures in April, the month when Coots start nesting, increased by 3.5 °C, and in months corresponding with the species breeding season by 2.6 °C. Breeding Coots advanced their earliest and median laying dates across the study period; however, the duration of their breeding season remained unchanged. We did not detect any significant temporal changes in clutch size, but clutches have become much more variable in size throughout the study period. Nest failures and production of offspring per nest did not change over the study period; however, the production of young per successful nest significantly declined. It is likely that this decline is the effect of mismatch between the period of food abundance (dipterans collected from water), and hatchling emergence, which is advanced due to change in climate. Future studies investigating the occurrence of dipteran resources at water bodies are needed to test this hypothesis.}, }
@article {pmid32939653, year = {2021}, author = {Khan, NA and Gao, Q and Abid, M and Shah, AA}, title = {Mapping farmers' vulnerability to climate change and its induced hazards: evidence from the rice-growing zones of Punjab, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {4229-4244}, pmid = {32939653}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Humans ; *Oryza ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {In developing countries like Pakistan, agriculture constitutes the primary source of support for the majority of rural and the adjacent urban population. Despite the large part it plays in the economy, it faces significant challenges caused by climate change, such as rising temperatures, floods, droughts, and yield losses. In Pakistan, rice, which is the second most essential food crop and livelihood source for the millions of farm households, is facing significant yield reduction due to climate change. It is pertinent to consider the vulnerabilities of farm households and related factors to create a climatic-resilient farming system. The current study is aimed at mapping the vulnerability of rice-growing communities of Punjab province while considering climatic challenges beyond temperatures and rainfall changes. The Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) was calculated for four rice-growing districts of Punjab province using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's three-indicator approach (sensitivity, exposition, and adaptive capacity). According to the results, farmers in the study area are highly vulnerable to climate change (CCVI 0.81). Specifically, the indices of vulnerability components showed that farmers have a high level of exposure (EVI 0.72) and susceptibility (SVI 0.59) to the climatic uncertainties with the least adaptive capacity (AVI 0.50). Further, the vulnerability analysis across different rice-growing regions showed that farmers, particularly in the low-yield region, are more vulnerable (EVI 0.73, SVI 0.61, AVI 0.49, CCVI 0.85) than the farmers in the high-yield region (EVI 0.71, SVI 0.58, AVI 0.51, CCVI 0.78). These findings imply that regional priority must be given despite the difference in farm performance to reduce production losses. Besides, climate-smart adaptation initiatives should be facilitated at the farm and regional levels through the implementation of appropriate policies and investment plans.}, }
@article {pmid32939560, year = {2020}, author = {Berestycki, H and Ducasse, R and Rossi, L}, title = {Influence of a road on a population in an ecological niche facing climate change.}, journal = {Journal of mathematical biology}, volume = {81}, number = {4-5}, pages = {1059-1097}, pmid = {32939560}, issn = {1432-1416}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {We introduce a model designed to account for the influence of a line with fast diffusion-such as a road or another transport network-on the dynamics of a population in an ecological niche.This model consists of a system of coupled reaction-diffusion equations set on domains with different dimensions (line / plane). We first show that, in a stationary climate, the presence of the line is always deleterious and can even lead the population to extinction. Next, we consider the case where the niche is subject to a displacement, representing the effect of a climate change. We find that in such case the line with fast diffusion can help the population to persist. We also study several qualitative properties of this system. The analysis is based on a notion of generalized principal eigenvalue developed and studied by the authors (2019).}, }
@article {pmid32938914, year = {2020}, author = {Saladin, B and Pellissier, L and Graham, CH and Nobis, MP and Salamin, N and Zimmermann, NE}, title = {Rapid climate change results in long-lasting spatial homogenization of phylogenetic diversity.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {4663}, pmid = {32938914}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Europe ; *Phylogeny ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/genetics ; Refugium ; Seeds ; }, abstract = {Scientific understanding of biodiversity dynamics, resulting from past climate oscillations and projections of future changes in biodiversity, has advanced over the past decade. Little is known about how these responses, past or future, are spatially connected. Analyzing the spatial variability in biodiversity provides insight into how climate change affects the accumulation of diversity across space. Here, we evaluate the spatial variation of phylogenetic diversity of European seed plants among neighboring sites and assess the effects of past rapid climate changes during the Quaternary on these patterns. Our work shows a marked homogenization in phylogenetic diversity across Central and Northern Europe linked to high climate change velocity and large distances to refugia. Our results suggest that the future projected loss in evolutionary heritage may be even more dramatic, as homogenization in response to rapid climate change has occurred among sites across large landscapes, leaving a legacy that has lasted for millennia.}, }
@article {pmid32938670, year = {2020}, author = {Jordan, CJ and Palmer, AA}, title = {Virtual meetings: A critical step to address climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {6}, number = {38}, pages = {}, pmid = {32938670}, issn = {2375-2548}, }
@article {pmid32937739, year = {2020}, author = {Gudipati, S and Zervos, M and Herc, E}, title = {Can the One Health Approach Save Us from the Emergence and Reemergence of Infectious Pathogens in the Era of Climate Change: Implications for Antimicrobial Resistance?.}, journal = {Antibiotics (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {32937739}, issn = {2079-6382}, abstract = {Climate change has become a controversial topic in today's media despite decades of warnings from climate scientists and has influenced human health significantly with the increasing prevalence of infectious pathogens and contribution to antimicrobial resistance. Elevated temperatures lead to rising sea and carbon dioxide levels, changing environments and interactions between humans and other species. These changes have led to the emergence and reemergence of infectious pathogens that have already developed significant antimicrobial resistance. Although these new infectious pathogens are alarming, we can still reduce the burden of infectious diseases in the era of climate change if we focus on One Health strategies. This approach aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and environment from climate change and antimicrobial impacts. Once these relationships are better understood, these models can be created, but the support of our legislative and health system partnerships are critical to helping with strengthening education and awareness.}, }
@article {pmid32935868, year = {2021}, author = {Fleming, W and Hayes, AL and Crosman, KM and Bostrom, A}, title = {Indiscriminate, Irrelevant, and Sometimes Wrong: Causal Misconceptions about Climate Change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {157-178}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13587}, pmid = {32935868}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {T32 HD007543/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Causality ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Knowledge ; Policy ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {Prior research demonstrates widespread persistence of beliefs about climate change causes and risks that are arguably misconceptions. They include believing pollution causes climate change, believing ozone depletion causes climate change, the combination of these two "green beliefs," referred to as environmental problems, and believing natural climate variation significantly contributes to current climate trends. Each of these causal beliefs has the potential to weaken or divert support away from effective climate change risk mitigation policies. To assess this potential, we explore the nature and prevalence of these beliefs in the United States with a national sample of interviews (N = 77) and two national surveys (N = 1,013, N = 1,820), and apply regression and mediation analyses to explore whether they explain any of the variation in individuals' concern or support for policy to mitigate climate change. Adherence to these beliefs-which reflect a variety of misconceptions illustrated in the interviews-differs by political ideology but is common, with over a third of interviewees mentioning one or more. Controlling for general knowledge, political ideology, and other factors, misconceptions about environmental problems are still associated directly with support for climate change policies. On average adherence to the belief that environmental problems cause climate change is associated with a 25% higher probability of policy support. In contrast, believing natural climate variability is a major recent cause of climate change is associated with a 7% lower probability of supporting climate policy, even after controlling for political ideology and other knowledge about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32931518, year = {2020}, author = {Inman, EN and Hobbs, RJ and Tsvuura, Z}, title = {No safety net in the face of climate change: The case of pastoralists in Kunene Region, Namibia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {e0238982}, pmid = {32931518}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animal Husbandry/*methods/*trends ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Floods ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Namibia ; }, abstract = {Over the past decade, pastoralists in Kunene Region, Namibia, have endured recurrent drought and flood events that have culminated in the loss of their primary form of livelihood-pastoralism. Most pastoralists are finding it difficult to sustain their livelihoods, and their communities have fallen into extreme poverty. Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) approaches are increasingly acknowledged as having the potential to enhance the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities. The first step is to develop an understanding of how affected communities live, their perceptions of and how they respond to climate change and the biophysical impacts of climate change in their communities. This study aims to collect this information in order to explore the use of EbA to help pastoralists adapt to climate change. We examined an isolated pastoral Himba community, to understand their perceptions, experiences and understanding of climate change and its related impacts on their livelihoods. A nested mixed-methods approach using structured interviews was employed to address the study objectives. Interview results revealed that pastoralists lack scientific knowledge of climate change, and they have no access to climate change information. Though pastoralists have coping and adaptation approaches at the community level (such as making gardens, fishing, etc.), these have become ineffective as climatic uncertainty and change persist. Furthermore, pastoralists no longer get benefits from the environment, such as food and fodder. Despite this, there are currently no biodiversity interventions at the community level to address the impacts of climate change. Pastoralists have indicated their adaptation needs, particularly the provision of water supply to grow food. This is an open avenue to explore EbA approaches, specifically ecological restoration, while still addressing the need of the pastoralists. There is an urgent need to develop new practical adaptation strategies, including restoration options that will strengthen their adaptive capacity.}, }
@article {pmid32931053, year = {2020}, author = {Birrell, JH and Shah, AA and Hotaling, S and Giersch, JJ and Williamson, CE and Jacobsen, D and Woods, HA}, title = {Insects in high-elevation streams: Life in extreme environments imperiled by climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {12}, pages = {6667-6684}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15356}, pmid = {32931053}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {G110-20-W5926//Montana Water Center/ ; DBI-1807694//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-1754276//National Science Foundation/ ; DEB-1950170//National Science Foundation/ ; IOS-1557795//National Science Foundation/ ; OPP-1906015//National Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Extreme Environments ; Humans ; Insecta ; *Rivers ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering conditions in high-elevation streams worldwide, with largely unknown effects on resident communities of aquatic insects. Here, we review the challenges of climate change for high-elevation aquatic insects and how they may respond, focusing on current gaps in knowledge. Understanding current effects and predicting future impacts will depend on progress in three areas. First, we need better descriptions of the multivariate physical challenges and interactions among challenges in high-elevation streams, which include low but rising temperatures, low oxygen supply and increasing oxygen demand, high and rising exposure to ultraviolet radiation, low ionic strength, and variable but shifting flow regimes. These factors are often studied in isolation even though they covary in nature and interact in space and time. Second, we need a better mechanistic understanding of how physical conditions in streams drive the performance of individual insects. Environment-performance links are mediated by physiology and behavior, which are poorly known in high-elevation taxa. Third, we need to define the scope and importance of potential responses across levels of biological organization. Short-term responses are defined by the tolerances of individuals, their capacities to perform adequately across a range of conditions, and behaviors used to exploit local, fine-scale variation in abiotic factors. Longer term responses to climate change, however, may include individual plasticity and evolution of populations. Whether high-elevation aquatic insects can mitigate climatic risks via these pathways is largely unknown.}, }
@article {pmid32930796, year = {2021}, author = {Rahman, MS and Karamehic-Muratovic, A and Baghbanzadeh, M and Amrin, M and Zafar, S and Rahman, NN and Shirina, SU and Haque, U}, title = {Climate change and dengue fever knowledge, attitudes and practices in Bangladesh: a social media-based cross-sectional survey.}, journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene}, volume = {115}, number = {1}, pages = {85-93}, doi = {10.1093/trstmh/traa093}, pmid = {32930796}, issn = {1878-3503}, mesh = {Bangladesh/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Dengue/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; *Social Media ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Bangladesh experienced its worst dengue fever (DF) outbreak in 2019. This study investigated the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) among university students in Bangladesh and significant factors associated with their prevention practices related to climate change and DF.<br><br>METHODS: A social media-based (Facebook) cross-sectional KAP survey was conducted and secondary data of reported DF cases in 2019 extracted. Logistic regression and spatial analysis were run to examine the data.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 1500 respondents, 76% believed that climate change can affect DF transmission. However, participants reported good climate change knowledge (76.7%), attitudes (87.9%) and practices (39.1%). The corresponding figures for DF were knowledge (47.9%), attitudes (80.3%) and practices (25.9%). Good knowledge and attitudes were significantly associated with good climate change adaptation or mitigation practices (p<0.05). Good knowledge, attitudes and previous DF experiences were also found to be significantly associated with good DF prevention practices (p<0.001). There was no significant positive correlation between climate change and DF KAP scores and the number of DF cases.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study provide baseline data that can be used to promote educational campaigns and intervention programs focusing on climate change adaptation and mitigation and effective DF prevention strategies among various communities in Bangladesh and similar dengue-endemic countries.}, }
@article {pmid32929258, year = {2019}, author = {Williams, DS}, title = {How those researching adaptation to climate change might reduce their own carbon footprints.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02778-z}, pmid = {32929258}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32929240, year = {2020}, author = {Newbold, T and Oppenheimer, P and Etard, A and Williams, JJ}, title = {Tropical and Mediterranean biodiversity is disproportionately sensitive to land-use and climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {12}, pages = {1630-1638}, pmid = {32929240}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Global biodiversity is undergoing rapid declines, driven in large part by changes to land use and climate. Global models help us to understand the consequences of environmental changes for biodiversity, but tend to neglect important geographical variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. Here we test whether biodiversity responses to climate change and land-use change differ among biomes (geographical units that have marked differences in environment and species composition). We find the strongest negative responses to both pressures in tropical biomes and in the Mediterranean. A further analysis points towards similar underlying drivers for the sensitivity to each pressure: we find both greater reductions in species richness in the types of land use most disturbed by humans and more negative predicted responses to climate change in areas of lower climatic seasonality, and in areas where a greater proportion of species are near their upper temperature limit. Within the land most modified by humans, reductions in biodiversity were particularly large in regions where humans have come to dominate the land more recently. Our results will help to improve predictions of how biodiversity is likely to change with ongoing climatic and land-use changes, pointing toward particularly large declines in the tropics where much future agricultural expansion is expected to occur. This finding could help to inform the development of the post-2020 biodiversity framework, by highlighting the under-studied regions where biodiversity losses are likely to be greatest.}, }
@article {pmid32927555, year = {2020}, author = {Celis-Plá, PSM and Moenne, F and Rodríguez-Rojas, F and Pardo, D and Lavergne, C and Moenne, A and Brown, MT and Huovinen, P and Gómez, I and Navarro, N and Sáez, CA}, title = {Antarctic intertidal macroalgae under predicted increased temperatures mediated by global climate change: Would they cope?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {740}, number = {}, pages = {140379}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140379}, pmid = {32927555}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Hydrogen Peroxide ; Oceans and Seas ; *Seaweed ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the regions to be most affected by increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) mediated by Global Climate Change; indeed, most negative predictions imply an up to 6 °C increment by the end of the XXI century. Temperature is one of the most important factors mediating diversity and distribution of macroalgae, although there is still no consensus as to the likely effects of higher SSTs, especially for polar seaweeds. Some available information suggests that potential strategies to withstand future increases in SSTs will be founded upon the glutathione-ascorbate cycle and the induction of chaperone-functioning heat shock proteins (HSPs); however, their eventual role, even for general stress responses, is unclear. The intertidal green, brown and red macroalgae species Monostroma hariotii, Adenocystis utricularis and Pyropia endiviifolia, respectively, from King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula, were exposed to 2 °C (control) and 8 °C (climate change scenario) for up to 5 days (d). Photosynthetic activity (αETR and ETRmax, and EkETR), photoinhibition (Fv/Fm) and photoprotection processes (αNPQ, NPQmax, and EkNPQ) provided no evidence of negative ecophysiological effects. There were moderate increases in H2O2 production and levels of lipid peroxidation with temperature, results supported by stable levels of total glutathione and ascorbate pools, with mostly higher levels of reduced ascorbate and glutathione than oxidized forms in all species. Transcripts of P. endiviifolia indicated a general upregulation of all antioxidant enzymes and HSPs genes studied under warmer temperature, although with different levels of activation with time. This pioneering investigation exploring different levels of biological organization, suggested that Antarctic intertidal macroalgae may be able to withstand future rise in SSTs, probably slightly altering their latitudinal distribution and/or range of thermal tolerance, by exhibiting robust glutathione-ascorbate production and recycling, as well as the induction of associated antioxidant enzymatic machinery and the syntheses of HSPs.}, }
@article {pmid32927191, year = {2020}, author = {Pastor-Paz, J and Noy, I and Sin, I and Sood, A and Fleming-Munoz, D and Owen, S}, title = {Projecting the effect of climate change on residential property damages caused by extreme weather events.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {276}, number = {}, pages = {111012}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111012}, pmid = {32927191}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Extreme Weather ; Forecasting ; New Zealand ; Weather ; }, abstract = {New Zealand's public insurer for natural hazards, the Earthquake Commission (EQC), provides residential insurance for some weather-related damage. Climate change and the expected increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather-related events are likely to translate into higher damages and thus an additional financial liability for the EQC. We project future insured damages from extreme precipitation events associated with future projected climatic change. We first estimate the empirical relationship between extreme precipitation events and the EQC's weather-related insurance claims based on a complete dataset of all claims from 2000 to 2017. We then use this estimated relationship, together with climate projections based on future greenhouse gases concentration scenarios from six different dynamically downscaled Regional Climate Models, to predict the impact of future extreme precipitation events on EQC liabilities for different time horizons up to the year 2100. Our results show predicted adverse impacts that vary over time and space. The percent change between projected and past damages-the climate change signal-ranges between an increase of 7%-8% in liabilities for the period 2020 to 2040, and between 9% and 25% higher for the period 2080 to 2100. We also provide detail caveats as towhy these quantities might be mis-estimated. The projected increase in the public insurer's liabilities could also be used to inform private insurers, regulators, and policymakers who are assessing the future performance of both the public and private insurers that cover weatherrelated.}, }
@article {pmid32924228, year = {2021}, author = {Sudarmana, A and Kelly, J}, title = {Climate change and the spread of disease: An illustrative case of the first Australian invasive non-toxigenic Vibrio cholerae infection in a newborn.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {57}, number = {6}, pages = {932-934}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.15063}, pmid = {32924228}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Australia ; *Cholera ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Water Microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid32920539, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, R and Weinbauer, MG and Peduzzi, P}, title = {Aquatic Viruses and Climate Change.}, journal = {Current issues in molecular biology}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {357-380}, doi = {10.21775/cimb.041.357}, pmid = {32920539}, issn = {1467-3045}, mesh = {Carbon/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Host Microbial Interactions/physiology ; Humans ; Viruses/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The viral component in aquatic systems clearly needs to be incorporated into future ocean and inland water climate models. Viruses have the potential to influence carbon and nutrient cycling in aquatic ecosystems significantly. Changing climate likely has both direct and indirect influence on virus-mediated processes, among them an impact on food webs, biogeochemical cycles and on the overall metabolic performance of whole ecosystems. Here we synthesise current knowledge on potential climate-related consequences for viral assemblages, virus-host interactions and virus functions, and in turn, viral processes contributing to climate change. There is a need to increase the accuracy of predictions of climate change impacts on virus- driven processes, particularly of those linked to biological production and biogeochemical cycles. Comprehension of the relationships between microbial/viral processes and global phenomena is essential to predict the influence on as well as the response of the biosphere to global change.}, }
@article {pmid32920419, year = {2021}, author = {Calheiros, T and Pereira, MG and Nunes, JP}, title = {Assessing impacts of future climate change on extreme fire weather and pyro-regions in Iberian Peninsula.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {754}, number = {}, pages = {142233}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142233}, pmid = {32920419}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Weather conditions play an important role in wildfire activity. In many regions, future climate could lead to different fire weather, with impacts on the ignition, behaviour, and suppression of wildfires, which may, therefore, force new fire regimes. This study aimed to assess the evolution of fire weather indices and the Number of Extreme Days (NED) in the context of climate change. We estimated the impact of these changes on monthly Normalized Burnt Area (NBA) and in the spatial distribution of Pyro-Regions (PR), using a recently identified relationship between NED and NBA intra-annual patterns. The components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) in the Iberian Peninsula were analysed for present-day conditions and future climate scenarios, using daily data from ERA-Interim (1980-2014) and an ensemble of simulations from 11 EURO-CORDEX high spatial resolution models, for two future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results suggest a significant increase in future fire weather risk, especially in late spring and early autumn, and also in southern and eastern Iberian Peninsula. NED is expected to strongly increase in summer months in the four PRs, but also to decrease in March and April in the northwestern and southwestern PR. This could change the spatial distribution of PRs, with a general northwards movement: the northern PR is expected to disappear except north of the Cantabrian Mountains, being replaced by the northwestern PR; the southwestern PR is expected to grow and occupy part of the area currently in the northwestern PR; and a new PR could appear in parts of the current eastern PR. These PR changes follow the projected modifications in the major climate regions. Results suggest different fire regimes in the future, with higher fire weather risk, and a longer and harsher fire season.}, }
@article {pmid32918888, year = {2020}, author = {Jennings, N and Fecht, D and De Matteis, S}, title = {Mapping the co-benefits of climate change action to issues of public concern in the UK: a narrative review.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {e424-e433}, pmid = {32918888}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {MR/L01341X/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; MR/S019669/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Housing ; Humans ; Policy Making ; *Public Opinion ; Socioeconomic Factors ; State Medicine ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {To avoid a 1·5°C rise in global temperatures above preindustrial levels, the next phase of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will need to be comparatively rapid. Linking the co-benefits of climate action to wider issues that the public are concerned about can help decision makers to prioritise decarbonisation options that increase the chance of public support for such changes, while ensuring that a just transition is delivered. We identified key issues of concern to the UK public by use of Ipsos MORI public opinion data from 2007 to 2020 and used these data to guide a narrative review of academic and grey literature on the co-benefits of climate change action for the UK. Correspondence with civil servants, third sector organisations, and relevant academics allowed us to identify omissions and to ensure policy relevance of the recommendations. This evidence-based Review of the various co-benefits of climate change action for the UK identifies four main areas: health and the National Health Service; security; economy and unemployment; and poverty, housing, and inequality. Associated trade-offs are also discussed. City-level and regional-level governments are particularly well placed to incorporate co-benefits into their decision making because it is at this scale that co-benefits most clearly manifest, and where interventions can have the most immediate effects.}, }
@article {pmid32918887, year = {2020}, author = {Mordecai, EA and Ryan, SJ and Caldwell, JM and Shah, MM and LaBeaud, AD}, title = {Climate change could shift disease burden from malaria to arboviruses in Africa.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {e416-e423}, pmid = {32918887}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {R01 AI102918/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R35 GM133439/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Animals ; Arbovirus Infections/epidemiology/*transmission ; Arthropod Vectors/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Cost of Illness ; Humans ; Incidence ; Malaria/epidemiology/*transmission ; Mosquito Vectors/physiology ; Prevalence ; }, abstract = {Malaria is a long-standing public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, whereas arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) such as dengue and chikungunya cause an under-recognised burden of disease. Many human and environmental drivers affect the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this Personal View, we argue that the direct effects of warming temperatures are likely to promote greater environmental suitability for dengue and other arbovirus transmission by Aedes aegypti and reduce suitability for malaria transmission by Anopheles gambiae. Environmentally driven changes in disease dynamics will be complex and multifaceted, but given that current public efforts are targeted to malaria control, we highlight Ae aegypti and dengue, chikungunya, and other arboviruses as potential emerging public health threats in sub-Saharan Africa.}, }
@article {pmid32917169, year = {2020}, author = {Mousavi, A and Ardalan, A and Takian, A and Ostadtaghizadeh, A and Naddafi, K and Bavani, AM}, title = {Health system plan for implementation of Paris agreement on climate change (COP 21): a qualitative study in Iran.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {1388}, pmid = {32917169}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Government Programs ; Humans ; Iran ; Policy Making ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Ensuring public health is crucial in any policy debate on climate change. Paris Agreement on climate change is a global contract, through which countries have committed themselves to a public health treaty. The agreement has laid the foundation for mitigation and adaptation. This study was conducted to provide an evidence-based framework for policy-making in the health system of Iran in order to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on public health and to increase the adaptation of the health system as a result.<br><br>METHODS: This is a qualitative study. We first used Delphi method to extract the components of Paris Agreement on climate change that were related to the functions and policymaking of health system in Iran. Twenty-three experts in health and climate change were identified purposefully and through snowball sampling as participants in Delphi. Data collection instrument was a structured questionnaire. We used SPSS software version 25 for data analysis based on the descriptive indices including the mean, the percentage of consensus above 75%, and the Kendall coordination coefficient.<br><br>RESULTS: Seventy-nine components classified within nine categories were extracted. The most important examples of the implementation of Paris Agreement on climate change in the health system of Iran were: participation in the formulation of strategies for mitigation and adaptation, identifying vulnerable groups, assessing vulnerability, increasing the capacity of health services delivery during extreme events, using early warning systems, using new technologies to increase the adaptation, evaluation of interventions, financial support, increasing the number of researches, increasing the knowledge and skills of staff, and finally public awareness.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-based policy-making is pivotal to develop effective programs to control the health effects of climate change. This research provided policy translation and customization of micro and macro provisions of Paris Agreement on climate change, in line with the political context of health system in Iran. Our finding will pave the ground, we envisage, for further steps towards capacity building and enhancement of resiliency of the health system, adaptation interventions, and evaluation, identification of barriers and facilitators for adaptation and decreasing the adverse health effects caused by the climate change, in Iran and perhaps beyond.}, }
@article {pmid32916440, year = {2020}, author = {Brodie, G and Holland, E and N'Yeurt, AR and Soapi, K and Hills, J}, title = {Seagrasses and seagrass habitats in Pacific small island developing states: Potential loss of benefits via human disturbance and climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {160}, number = {}, pages = {111573}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111573}, pmid = {32916440}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Islands ; Pacific Islands ; }, abstract = {Seagrasses provide a wide range of services including food provision, water purification and coastal protection. Pacific small island developing states (PSIDS) have limited natural resources, challenging economies and a need for marine science research. Seagrasses occur in eleven PSIDS and nations are likely to benefit in different ways depending on habitat health, habitat cover and location, and species presence. Globally seagrass habitats are declining as a result of anthropogenic impacts including climate change and in PSIDS pressure on already stressed coastal ecosystems, will likely threaten seagrass survival particularly close to expanding urban settlements. Improved coastal and urban planning at local, national and regional scales is needed to reduce human impacts on vulnerable coastal areas. Research is required to generate knowledge-based solutions to support effective coastal management and protection of the existing seagrass habitats, including strenghened documentation the socio-economic and environmental services they provide. For PSIDS, protection of seagrass service benefits requires six priority actions: seagrass habitat mapping, regulation of coastal and upstream development, identification of specific threats at vulnerable locations, a critique of cost-effective restoration options, research devoted to seagrass studies and more explicit policy development.}, }
@article {pmid32915709, year = {2020}, author = {Schiller, JH and Averbuch, SD and Berg, CD}, title = {Why Oncologists Should Care About Climate Change.}, journal = {JCO oncology practice}, volume = {16}, number = {12}, pages = {775-778}, pmid = {32915709}, issn = {2688-1535}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Oncologists ; }, }
@article {pmid32915447, year = {2021}, author = {Harker-Schuch, I and Lade, S and Mills, F and Colvin, R}, title = {Opinions of 12 to 13-year-olds in Austria and Australia on the concern, cause and imminence of climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {3}, pages = {644-660}, pmid = {32915447}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {2014-589//Svenska Forskningsr&#xe5;det Formas/ ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Attitude ; Australia ; Austria ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Early adolescence (12-13 years old) is a critical but under-researched demographic for the formation of attitudes related to climate change. We address this important area by exploring adolescent views about climate change. This paper presents opinions collected from surveys of 463 1st-year secondary school students (12-13 years old) in public secondary schools in inner-urban centres in Austria and Australia on whether climate change is (1) something about which to worry, (2) caused by humans and (3) happening now. Eligible respondents in both countries showed similar levels of agreement that climate change was probably or definitely something we should (1) worry about (84.6% Austria, 89.1% Australia), which is significantly higher than either country's adult population. Eligible respondents agreed that climate change probably or definitely is (2) caused by humans (75.6% Austria, 83.6% Australia) and that climate change is probably or definitely something that is (3) happening now (73.1% Austria, 87.5% Australia). Their response differed from the respective adult populations, but in opposite directions. Our results suggest that socio-cultural worldview may not have as much influence on this age group as it does on the respective adult populations and suggests that this age group would be receptive and ready for climate science education and engagement initiatives.}, }
@article {pmid32914423, year = {2021}, author = {Gutiérrez-Gamboa, G and Zheng, W and Martínez de Toda, F}, title = {Strategies in vineyard establishment to face global warming in viticulture: a mini review.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {101}, number = {4}, pages = {1261-1269}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.10813}, pmid = {32914423}, issn = {1097-0010}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Crop Production/*methods ; Fruit/*chemistry/growth &amp; development ; Global Warming ; Vitis/chemistry/*growth &amp; development ; Wine/analysis ; }, abstract = {Different technological solutions are developing in the wine industry to mitigate the negative effects of the current global warming to mainly achieve wines with a lower alcohol content. These proposed solutions mostly act at the oenological level and are focused on intervening in the raw material to be transformed; that is, on reducing the concentration of sugar in the must using filtration techniques or also on wine dealcoholizing by physical processes. These techniques are intended to offer solutions and respond to new consumer expectations, but they may be considered too artificial to be widely accepted. In this way, viticultural strategies may offer a natural solution to obtain grapes with low sugar content, maximizing their quality by delaying ripening. This mini review surveys the viticultural strategies that can be applied in the establishment of a vineyard - that is, when it comes to planting of a new vineyard - such as vineyard altitude, latitude, orientation, and slope, as well as rootstock, variety, clone, training system, and row orientation and slope, with the aim to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on grape and wine quality and to delay grape maturation. Finally, we propose a ponderation of the strategies discussed to contextualize its importance to face global warming in viticulture. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid32913318, year = {2020}, author = {Witze, A}, title = {The Arctic is burning like never before - and that's bad news for climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {585}, number = {7825}, pages = {336-337}, pmid = {32913318}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Nitrogen ; *Permafrost ; }, }
@article {pmid32911388, year = {2020}, author = {Xu, X and Wang, L and Sun, M and Fu, C and Bai, Y and Li, C and Zhang, L}, title = {Climate change vulnerability assessment for smallholder farmers in China: An extended framework.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {276}, number = {}, pages = {111315}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111315}, pmid = {32911388}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Farmers ; Geography ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change brings uncertainty and challenges to achieving sustainable development goals. The dually vulnerable regions in terms of the environment and economy are facing substantial threats from climate change; particularly, smallholder farmers who heavily rely on natural ecosystems in these regions are being the most affected. Paying attention to the vulnerability assessment of these regions is conducive to precisely improving the ability of their people to cope with climate change. This study aimed to construct an extended framework of climate change vulnerability assessment at the household level by combining the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vulnerability assessment framework with the sustainable livelihood framework. Four typical regions with different climatic and geographical conditions in China, including the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (marked as AOHAN, representing the type of grassland, similarly hereinafter), Qinghai Province (HYMH, plateau), Yunnan Province (YLNL, mountain), and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (NNQZ, coastal zone), were selected to apply the framework. In total, 29 villages from these four regions were selected at random, and 360 face-to-face interviews were conducted in selected villages based on a pretested questionnaire. The results show that AOHAN had the greatest vulnerability, as well as the highest exposure level among the four regions, which was also the major source of differences in vulnerability. Further analysis shows that although the sensitivity and adaptive capacity showed relatively small differences, the sources of sensitivity and adaptation strategies were quite different among the four regions. In terms of sensitivity, YLNL had the highest level of sensitivity in housing, water, and livestock, and AOHAN assumed the highest sensitivity in land. The advantages and disadvantages in terms of adaptive capacity also varied widely among the four regions. More specifically, AOHAN had a balanced adaptive capacity; YLNL largely relied on the advantages in social and human capitals to compensate for the disadvantage in physical capital; and the strengths in physical and financial capitals are the main sources of adaptive capacities for NNQZ and HYMH, respectively. In general, the vulnerability assessment framework proposed in this study provides guidelines for vulnerability assessments at the household level in the face of climate change. In addition, heterogeneous measures to cope with the threats of climate change should be put forward precisely, based on the climatic, geographical and socioeconomic characteristics of each region.}, }
@article {pmid32911165, year = {2021}, author = {Fulton, CA and Huff Hartz, KE and Fuller, NW and Kent, LN and Anzalone, SE and Miller, TM and Connon, RE and Poynton, HC and Lydy, MJ}, title = {Fitness costs of pesticide resistance in Hyalella azteca under future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {753}, number = {}, pages = {141945}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141945}, pmid = {32911165}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Amphipoda ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Female ; *Insecticides/analysis ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis/toxicity ; }, abstract = {Global climate change continues to cause alterations in environmental conditions which can be detrimental to aquatic ecosystem health. The development of pesticide resistance in organisms such as Hyalella azteca can lead to increased susceptibility to environmental change. This research provides a robust assessment of the effects of alterations in salinity on the fitness of H. azteca. Full-life cycle bioassays were conducted with non-resistant and pyrethroid-resistant H. azteca cultured under two salinity conditions representing a rise from freshwater control (0.2 psu) to increased salinity due to salt-water intrusion, reduced snowpack and evaporative enrichment (6.0 psu). Additionally, the upper thermal tolerance was defined for each population at each salinity. Pyrethroid-resistant H. azteca exhibited reduced thermal tolerance; however, they produced more offspring per female than non-resistant animals. Compared to the low salinity water, both non-resistant and pyrethroid-resistant H. azteca produced more offspring, grew larger (based on dry mass), and produced larger offspring in elevated salinity, although pyrethroid-resistant animals had lower survival and lipid levels. This study provides fundamental information about the fitness potential of H. azteca in a changing climate, suggesting advantages for non-resistant animals under future climate scenarios. In addition, this research further supports the need to consider the effects of global climate change when conducting risk assessment of contaminants of concern, as well as the contribution of contaminants when investigating climate change impacts on populations, as exposure may contribute to niche contraction.}, }
@article {pmid32910328, year = {2020}, author = {Albertini, DF}, title = {Climate change and the morphing of human ARTs.}, journal = {Journal of assisted reproduction and genetics}, volume = {37}, number = {9}, pages = {2051-2052}, pmid = {32910328}, issn = {1573-7330}, mesh = {COVID-19/*epidemiology/virology ; Humans ; *Oogenesis ; *Reproductive Medicine ; *Reproductive Techniques, Assisted ; SARS-CoV-2/*isolation &amp; purification ; }, }
@article {pmid32910006, year = {2021}, author = {Philipsborn, RP and Sheffield, P and White, A and Osta, A and Anderson, MS and Bernstein, A}, title = {Climate Change and the Practice of Medicine: Essentials for Resident Education.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {96}, number = {3}, pages = {355-367}, doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000003719}, pmid = {32910006}, issn = {1938-808X}, mesh = {Accreditation/methods ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Clinical Competence/standards ; Curriculum/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Delivery of Health Care/trends ; Education, Medical/methods ; Education, Medical, Graduate/*methods ; Health Resources/trends ; Humans ; Internship and Residency/methods/*standards ; Knowledge ; Learning/physiology ; Natural Disasters/*prevention &amp; control ; Physicians/ethics ; Practice Patterns, Physicians'/*trends ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Despite calls for including content on climate change and its effect on health in curricula across the spectrum of medical education, no widely used resource exists to guide residency training programs in this effort. This lack of resources poses challenges for training program leaders seeking to incorporate evidence-based climate and health content into their curricula. Climate change increases risks of heat-related illness, infections, asthma, mental health disorders, poor perinatal outcomes, adverse experiences from trauma and displacement, and other harms. More numerous and increasingly dangerous natural disasters caused by climate change impair delivery of care by disrupting supply chains and compromising power supplies. Graduating trainees face a knowledge gap in understanding, managing, and mitigating these many-faceted consequences of climate change, which-expected to intensify in coming decades-will influence both the health of their patients and the health care they deliver. In this article, the authors propose a framework of climate change and health educational content for residents, including how climate change (1) harms health, (2) necessitates adaptation in clinical practice, and (3) undermines health care delivery. The authors propose not only learning objectives linked to the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education core competencies for resident education but also learning formats and assessment strategies in each content area. They also present opportunities for implementation of climate and health education in residency training programs. Including this content in residency education will better prepare doctors to deliver anticipatory guidance to at-risk patients, manage those experiencing climate-related health effects, and reduce care disruptions during climate-driven extreme weather events.}, }
@article {pmid32908603, year = {2020}, author = {Cao, YN and Zhu, SS and Chen, J and Comes, HP and Wang, IJ and Chen, LY and Sakaguchi, S and Qiu, YX}, title = {Genomic insights into historical population dynamics, local adaptation, and climate change vulnerability of the East Asian Tertiary relict Euptelea (Eupteleaceae).}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {2038-2055}, pmid = {32908603}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {The warm-temperate and subtropical climate zones of East Asia are a hotspot of plant species richness and endemism, including a noticeable number of species-poor Tertiary relict tree genera. However, little is understood about when East Asian Tertiary relict plants diversified, how they responded demographically to past environmental change, and to what extent their current genomic composition (and adaptive capacity) might mitigate the effects of global warming. Here, we obtained genomic (RAD-SNP) data for 171 samples from two extant species of Euptelea in China (24 E. pleiosperma populations) and Japan (11 E. polyandra populations) to elucidate their divergence and demographic histories, genome-wide associations with current environmental variables, and genomic vulnerability to future climate change. Our results indicate that Late Miocene changes in climate and/or sea level promoted species divergence, whereas Late Pliocene uplifting in southwest China likely fostered lineage divergence within E. pleiosperma. Its subsequent range expansion into central/east (CE) China bears genomic signatures of climate-driven selection, yet extant CE populations are predicted to be most vulnerable to future climate change. For E. polyandra, geography was the only significant predictor of genomic variation. Our findings indicate a profound impact of Late Neogene geological and climate change on the evolutionary history of Euptelea, with much stronger signals of local adaptation left in China than in Japan. This study deepens our understanding of the complex evolutionary forces that influence the distribution of genetic variation of Tertiary relict trees, and provides insights into their susceptibility to global change and potential for adaptive responses. Our results lay the groundwork for future conservation and restoration programs for Euptelea.}, }
@article {pmid32908206, year = {2020}, author = {Kolanowska, M and Rewicz, A and Baranow, P}, title = {Ecological niche modeling of the pantropical orchid Polystachya concreta (Orchidaceae) and its response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {14801}, pmid = {32908206}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Orchidaceae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate is the dominant control factor on the spatial distribution of organisms on a global scale and global warming is predicted to become a major cause of species extinctions. In our study ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate the effect of projected future climate changes on the pantropical orchid Polystacha concreta as well as to reconstruct changes in the distribution of the suitable climatic niches of this species since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The study revealed small differences in the niches occupied by populations of P. concreta recorded in various continents; however, these alterations will become more significant in regard to future climatic change. While losses of suitable habitats of the studied orchid will occur in the Americas and Africa, global warming will be favorable for Asian populations. Our study suggests a significant loss of niches since the LGM which indicates that the currently observed loss of habitats is not only the result of human activity but also of natural changes of the Earth's climate. From the obtained models we identified the areas that will be the most resistant regarding the modifications caused by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32907741, year = {2020}, author = {Campbell, H and Ledet, J and Poore, AGB and Byrne, M}, title = {Thermal tolerance in the amphipod Sunamphitoe parmerong from a global warming hotspot, acclimatory carryover effects within generation.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {160}, number = {}, pages = {105048}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105048}, pmid = {32907741}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; *Amphipoda/physiology ; Animals ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The thermal response of the amphipod Sunamphitoe parmerong was contrasted between unacclimated 'wild' and acclimated populations. Brooding females were allocated to 17 °C or 23 °C treatments and their progeny developed to adulthood at the same temperature. Tolerance to acute thermal challenge (26-36 °C) was determined. The 17 °C and 23 °C acclimated S. parmerong had a 0.45 and 0.64 risk of death compared to the unacclimated individuals. The upper lethal temperature (LT50) was 27.4 °C for the unacclimated group and 29.6 °C and 30.4 °C for the 17 °C and 23 °C acclimated groups, respectively. Acclimation shifted their LT50 by 2.2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. The wild population exhibited high variability in thermal tolerance, potentially due to their environmental history and greater diversity of genotypes. After acclimation S. parmerong had decreased variability in thermal tolerance and that of the 23 °C group shifted by 1 °C compared with the 17 °C group. These results indicate developmental phenotypic plasticity or differential survival of resilient progeny as potential mechanisms to facilitate persistence in a warming ocean.}, }
@article {pmid32906226, year = {2020}, author = {Chausson, A and Turner, B and Seddon, D and Chabaneix, N and Girardin, CAJ and Kapos, V and Key, I and Roe, D and Smith, A and Woroniecki, S and Seddon, N}, title = {Mapping the effectiveness of nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {6134-6155}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15310}, pmid = {32906226}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NE/R002649/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; //University of Oxford: John Fell Fund and the Oxford Martin School/ ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Nature-based solutions (NbS) to climate change currently have considerable political traction. However, national intentions to deploy NbS have yet to be fully translated into evidence-based targets and action on the ground. To enable NbS policy and practice to be better informed by science, we produced the first global systematic map of evidence on the effectiveness of nature-based interventions for addressing the impacts of climate change and hydrometeorological hazards on people. Most of the interventions in natural or semi-natural ecosystems were reported to have ameliorated adverse climate impacts. Conversely, interventions involving created ecosystems (e.g., afforestation) were associated with trade-offs; such studies primarily reported reduced soil erosion or increased vegetation cover but lower water availability, although this evidence was geographically restricted. Overall, studies reported more synergies than trade-offs between reduced climate impacts and broader ecological, social, and climate change mitigation outcomes. In addition, nature-based interventions were most often shown to be as effective or more so than alternative interventions for addressing climate impacts. However, there were substantial gaps in the evidence base. Notably, there were few studies of the cost-effectiveness of interventions compared to alternatives and few integrated assessments considering broader social and ecological outcomes. There was also a bias in evidence toward the Global North, despite communities in the Global South being generally more vulnerable to climate impacts. To build resilience to climate change worldwide, it is imperative that we protect and harness the benefits that nature can provide, which can only be done effectively if informed by a strengthened evidence base.}, }
@article {pmid32906074, year = {2020}, author = {Doran, EMB and Zia, A and Hurley, SE and Tsai, Y and Koliba, C and Adair, C and Schattman, RE and Rizzo, DM and Méndez, VE}, title = {Social-psychological determinants of farmer intention to adopt nutrient best management practices: Implications for resilient adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {276}, number = {}, pages = {111304}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111304}, pmid = {32906074}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Humans ; *Intention ; Nutrients ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Successful adaptation to global climate change and enhancement of agricultural watersheds' resilience requires widespread use of Nutrient Best Management Practices (NBMPs) by farms of all sizes. In the US, adoption of many NBMP practices is voluntary and insufficient to achieve local and downstream conservation objectives. Despite evidence that both social-psychological factors and socio-economic factors influence farmer decision-making, very few studies of farmers' decision-making related to NBMP adoption combine these two factor groups in a theoretically rigorous way. To better understand farmers' management decisions, we test the social-psychological Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to determine the relative influence of attitudes, perceived social norms, and perceived behavioral control on adoption of nine NBMPs. A survey was designed by the research team and implemented by the U.S. Department of Agriculture-National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) in 2013, and replicated in 2016, on a stratified sample of 129 farmers (including panel data on 56 farmers). Farmers were located in the Missisquoi, and Lamoille River watersheds of the Lake Champlain Basin in the Northeast region of the United States. Survey responses revealed variation in past adoption of NBMPs was sensitive to practice type and farm size. We developed nine weighted structural equation models to test endogenous (social-psychological) and exogenous (policy, economic and demographic) predictors of farmer intention to adopt NBMPs. We found that perceived behavioral control had the largest effect size and strongest statistical significance on the farmers' expressed intentions to adopt NBMPs in the future. For a subset of NBMPs, perceived social norms and farmer attitudes toward these NBMPs were each also significant drivers of intention to adopt individual practices. Among the exogenous variables, we found that large farm size, college education, and having a conservation easement all had a positive influence on farmers' intention to adopt NBMPs. This study suggests that for widespread adoption of NBMPs, environmental managers, policy makers, and program developers should be attentive to farmers' perceived behavioral control, and support the design and execution of outreach and technical assistance programs that build on drivers of farmers' decision making.}, }
@article {pmid32906043, year = {2021}, author = {Negi, HS and Kumar, A and Kanda, N and Thakur, NK and Singh, KK}, title = {Status of glaciers and climate change of East Karakoram in early twenty-first century.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {753}, number = {}, pages = {141914}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141914}, pmid = {32906043}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study aims to assess the glaciers change status in Shyok basin, East Karakoram in terms of area and mass balance, and to ascertain if glaciers in this part of Karakoram also display similar anomaly like central or western counterparts. The spatio-temporal monitoring of glaciers during the time frame of 24 years (1990/2000/2014) suggests major percentage of stable glaciers and insignificant retreat in the total glaciated area. The percentage of retreating glaciers has increased after year 2000. Area change analysis of glaciers having size >1 km[2] (569 glaciers) suggests the number of fluctuated glaciers have substantially increased i.e. overall 56% glaciers remained stable, 35% retreated and 9% advanced during 1990-2014. The geodetic based findings using SRTM-C (2000) and Cartosat-1 (2010/2011/2014) stereo-imageries for 201 glaciers suggest the mass loss at the rate of -0.10 ± 0.07 m w.e. a[-1]. To better apprehend the status of glaciers changes in the region, climatic studies using in-situ observations as well as reanalysis dataset (ERA-I) were also undertaken of past 30 years. Therefore, this study is also a maiden attempt to ascertain if along with Karakoram anomaly, a climatic anomaly exists in the Eastern parts of Karakoram or not. A long term field collected snow-meteorological data of East Karakoram region suggests overall warming trend in annual temperature and no trend for snowfall during 1985-2015. The statistically significant increased rates of warming and decreased snowfall after year 2000 support the spatial variations in glaciers of East Karakoram and marginal mass loss. The observations of the marginal mass loss along with warming temperatures indicate that no Karakoram or climatic anomaly is existent over the East Karakoram region. Our study further refutes the prevalence of the elevation-dependent warming (EDW) over East Karakoram region vis-à-vis North-West Himalayan ranges. The impact of hiatus in global warming was also not observed over studied region.}, }
@article {pmid32905030, year = {2020}, author = {Caby, J and Ziane, Y and Lamarque, E}, title = {The determinants of voluntary climate change disclosure commitment and quality in the banking industry.}, journal = {Technological forecasting and social change}, volume = {161}, number = {}, pages = {120282}, pmid = {32905030}, issn = {0040-1625}, abstract = {Banks are both impacted by climate change and crucial for the implementation of sound practices and behaviors to combat climate change. The aim of this research is to identify the determinants of banks' voluntary climate change disclosure and the quality of that disclosure. Using data on 117 banks from 40 developed and developed countries around the world, we use ordinary least square regression and multivariate logit analysis to show that country-level and bank-level characteristics are much better predictors of bank commitment to voluntary carbon disclosure initiatives and environmental scores than they are of carbon disclosure quality. Banks want to project themselves as good citizens when they are located in a developed and environmentally friendly country, profitable, less risky, and subject to multiple-listing constraints. However, the picture is unclear when it comes to the implementation of rigorous carbon disclosure. This study extends the current state of knowledge on the impacts of size and country-level characteristics on carbon disclosure, finding that size and national context are not independent of carbon disclosure.}, }
@article {pmid32904314, year = {2020}, author = {Oti, JO and Kabo-Bah, AT and Ofosu, E}, title = {Hydrologic response to climate change in the Densu River Basin in Ghana.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {e04722}, pmid = {32904314}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change continues to pose a threat to the sustainability of water resources. Global warming can have several effects on the water resources and water demands in the Densu River Basin especially household water use and agriculture use among several others. However, the extents to which the hydrology of the Densu River Basin is will be altered in the future remains unknown. In this research, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP21) system was used to study the impacts of future climate change on water resources in the Densu River Basin. Future climate data (rainfall and temperature) for the period 2051-2080 was generated from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute's climate models (ICHEC-EC-EARTH and RCA4) for RCP4.5 scenario under CORDEX experiment. The results of the study indicate that the Densu River Basin will experience a temperature increase by 8.23% and a 17% reduction in rainfall resulting in 58.3% reduction in water resources in the area. The climate change impact analysis indicates a reduction in the river streamflow due to decrease in rainfall. It is recommended that future research on climate change adaptation for water management in the Densu River Basin should be conducted.}, }
@article {pmid32904292, year = {2020}, author = {Onofri, L and Nunes, PALD}, title = {Economic valuation for policy support in the context of ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change: An indicator, integrated based approach.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {e04650}, pmid = {32904292}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) includes a set of natural capital-based measures to adapt to climate change. UN Environment has called for measuring EbA costs and benefits before promoting the adoption of such a policy. Within such policy input, the paper objective is twofold. It first performs a critical survey of economic and valuation studies that measure the costs and benefits of undertaking EBA measures. It then proposes an integrated valuation approach, based on a set of 54 economic indicators that include ecological aspects and encompass the technical, financial and academic difficulties to perform thorough cost-benefit exercises, by providing policymakers with simple, though rigorous evidence.}, }
@article {pmid32904277, year = {2020}, author = {Felver, TB}, title = {How can Azerbaijan meet its Paris Agreement commitments: assessing the effectiveness of climate change-related energy policy options using LEAP modeling.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {e04697}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04697}, pmid = {32904277}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Azerbaijan has committed to cut GHG emissions by 35% by 2030 under the Paris Agreement. By applying LEAP, a well-regarded forecasting model based on inventories defined under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), GHG emissions projections are modeled in three scenarios: a without measures (WOM) scenario or business-as-usual, which assumes no change to current behavior, a with existing measures (WEM) scenario, which takes into account currently planned measures in Azerbaijan, and an EU policy scenario, which mirrors the existing mitigation measures of the European Union. The WOM scenario of total GHG emissions from the energy sector indicates that from 2010 to 2030, total emissions will increase by 67% in Azerbaijan. In the WEM scenario, forecasted GHG emissions are only 29.7% lower than the base year and still above the nation's Paris Agreement commitment. In the EU policy scenario, projected GHG emissions are 37.2% lower than the base year. Therefore, current mitigation measures are insufficient for Azerbaijan to meet its commitments to the Paris Agreement, and stronger measures than currently planned are necessary. Because of its status as a developing nation with limited resources, Azerbaijan must have funding from developed nations promised under the Paris Agreement to transition towards a less carbon-heavy economy.}, }
@article {pmid32902796, year = {2020}, author = {Jha, SK and Negi, AK and Alatalo, JM and Negi, RS and Patasaraiya, MK}, title = {Assessment of climate change pattern in the Pauri Garhwal of the Western Himalayan Region: based on climate parameters and perceptions of forest-dependent communities.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {10}, pages = {632}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08575-w}, pmid = {32902796}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; India ; *Meteorology ; }, abstract = {This study assessed the climate change in Pauri district, Uttarakhand, India, a region highly vulnerable to climate change with potentially high loss of livelihoods and lives. The scale of change in the district's climate was analyzed using meteorological station data (1901-2000) and grid data (1985-2015). Perceptions of climate change among forest-dependent communities in three altitude zones (< 1200 m asl (zone A); 1200-1800 m asl (zone B), and > 1800 m asl (zone C)) in the study region were surveyed with respect to 14 climate-specific indicators. Annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperature of seasonal data indicated increasing trends except monsoon. Percentage cloud cover showed an increase, of approximately 3%, while diurnal temperature displayed decreasing trends. Rainfall in the district showed a decreasing trend, with more than 50% of years 1985-2015 receiving less rainfall than the annual average. More than 90% of respondents in zones A and B, and around 65-70% respondents in zone C, reported changes in climate parameters. These findings confirm the long-term observable changes in climate in the region and demonstrate the utility of station data, grid data, and surveys of local communities' perceptions when analyzing climate change. The analysis provided important clues about the nature of climate changes in the district. The results can be used to reduce the gap between bottom-up understanding and top-down policies and to formulate precautionary and ongoing site-specific adaptation practices for communities in different altitude zones in the study region, leading to effective and efficient mitigation of climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid32902626, year = {2020}, author = {Patil, M and Jeffery, KJ}, title = {What does climate change mean for occupational health professionals?.}, journal = {Occupational medicine (Oxford, England)}, volume = {70}, number = {6}, pages = {386-388}, pmid = {32902626}, issn = {1471-8405}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Natural Disasters ; Occupational Exposure/*adverse effects ; *Occupational Health ; }, }
@article {pmid32901145, year = {2019}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {False statements about climate change trip people up.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02637-x}, pmid = {32901145}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32901026, year = {2020}, author = {Hu, X and Fan, H and Cai, M and Sejas, SA and Taylor, P and Yang, S}, title = {A less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {4472}, pmid = {32901026}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Model warming projections, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, have a large inter-model spread in both their geographical warming patterns and global mean values. The inter-model warming pattern spread (WPS) limits our ability to foresee the severity of regional impacts on nature and society. This paper focuses on uncovering the feedbacks responsible for the WPS. Here, we identify two dominant WPS modes whose global mean values also explain 98.7% of the global warming spread (GWS). We show that the ice-albedo feedback spread explains uncertainties in polar regions while the water vapor feedback spread explains uncertainties elsewhere. Other processes, including the cloud feedback, contribute less to the WPS as their spreads tend to cancel each other out in a model-dependent manner. Our findings suggest that the WPS and GWS could be significantly reduced by narrowing the inter-model spreads of ice-albedo and water vapor feedbacks, and better understanding the spatial coupling between feedbacks.}, }
@article {pmid32900896, year = {2020}, author = {Byrd, B and Richards, SL and Runkle, JD and Sugg, MM}, title = {Vector-borne Diseases and Climate Change: North Carolina's Policy Should Promote Regional Resilience.}, journal = {North Carolina medical journal}, volume = {81}, number = {5}, pages = {324-330}, doi = {10.18043/ncm.81.5.324}, pmid = {32900896}, issn = {0029-2559}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; North Carolina ; Policy ; Public Health ; *Vector Borne Diseases ; }, abstract = {Emerging and endemic vector-borne diseases remain significant causes of morbidity and economic burden in North Carolina. Effective policies must promote climate change resilience through public health preparedness at local and regional scales to proactively address the diverse environmental, climatic, and demographic factors amplifying vector-borne disease risk.}, }
@article {pmid32900892, year = {2020}, author = {Kearney, GD and Garzon, L}, title = {Calor Extremo: On the Frontlines of Climate Change with North Carolina Farmworkers.}, journal = {North Carolina medical journal}, volume = {81}, number = {5}, pages = {311-314}, doi = {10.18043/ncm.81.5.311}, pmid = {32900892}, issn = {0029-2559}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Extreme Heat ; *Farmers ; Humans ; North Carolina ; }, abstract = {Increasingly hotter temperatures threaten the environment and pose serious risks to human health. From contending with damaged crops and loss of work due to extreme weather to working in life-threateningly hot and humid temperatures, agricultural farmworkers are on the front lines of this harsh reality.}, }
@article {pmid32899727, year = {2020}, author = {Mevy, JP and Loriod, B and Liu, X and Corre, E and Torres, M and Büttner, M and Haguenauer, A and Reiter, IM and Fernandez, C and Gauquelin, T}, title = {Response of Downy Oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) to Climate Change: Transcriptome Assembly, Differential Gene Analysis and Targeted Metabolomics.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {32899727}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {ANR-10-INBS-0009-10//ANR/ ; ECCOREV//undefined &lt;span style="color:gray;font-size:10px;"&gt;undefined&lt;/span&gt;/ ; }, abstract = {Global change scenarios in the Mediterranean basin predict a precipitation reduction within the coming hundred years. Therefore, increased drought will affect forests both in terms of adaptive ecology and ecosystemic services. However, how vegetation might adapt to drought is poorly understood. In this report, four years of climate change was simulated by excluding 35% of precipitation above a downy oak forest. RNASeq data allowed us to assemble a genome-guided transcriptome. This led to the identification of differentially expressed features, which was supported by the characterization of target metabolites using a metabolomics approach. We provided 2.5 Tb of RNASeq data and the assembly of the first genome guided transcriptome of Quercus pubescens. Up to 5724 differentially expressed transcripts were obtained; 42 involved in plant response to drought. Transcript set enrichment analysis showed that drought induces an increase in oxidative pressure that is mitigated by the upregulation of ubiquitin-like protein protease, ferrochelatase, oxaloacetate decarboxylase and oxo-acid-lyase activities. Furthermore, the downregulation of auxin biosynthesis and transport, carbohydrate storage metabolism were observed as well as the concomitant accumulation of metabolites, such as oxalic acid, malate and isocitrate. Our data suggest that early metabolic changes in the resistance of Q. pubescens to drought involve a tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle shunt through the glyoxylate pathway, galactose metabolism by reducing carbohydrate storage and increased proteolytic activity.}, }
@article {pmid32898316, year = {2020}, author = {Fair, KR and Anand, M and Bauch, CT}, title = {Spatial structure in protected forest-grassland mosaics: Exploring futures under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {6097-6115}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15288}, pmid = {32898316}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//James S. McDonnell Foundation/ ; //Canada First Research Excellence Fund/ ; RGPIN 2019//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Brazil ; Chromosomes, Human, Y ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Grassland ; Humans ; Male ; Mosaicism ; Trees ; }, abstract = {In mosaic ecosystems, multiple land types coexist as alternative stable states exhibiting distinct spatial patterns. Forest-grassland mosaics are ecologically valuable, due to their high species richness. However, anthropogenic disturbances threaten these ecosystems. Designating protected areas is one approach to preserving natural mosaics. Such work must account for climate change, yet there are few spatially explicit models of mosaics under climate change that can predict its effects. We construct a spatially explicit simulation model for a natural forest-grassland mosaic, parameterized for Southern Brazil. Using this model, we investigate how the spatial structure of these systems is altered under climate change and other disturbance regimes. By including local spatial interactions and fire-mediated forest recruitment, our model reproduces important spatial features of protected real-world mosaics, including the number of forest patches and overall forest cover. Multiple concurrent changes in environmental conditions have greater impacts on tree cover and spatial structure in simulated mosaics than single changes. This sensitivity reflects the narrow range of conditions under which simulated mosaics persist and emphasizes their vulnerability. Our model predicts that, in protected mosaics, climate change impacts on the fire-mediated threshold to recruitment will likely result in substantial increases in forest cover under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with potential for mosaic loss over a broad range of initial forest cover levels. Forest cover trajectories are similar until 2150, when cover increases under RCP 8.5 outpace those under RCP 2.6. Mosaics that persist under RCP 8.5 may experience structural alterations at the patch and landscape level. Our simple model predicts several realistic aspects of spatial structure as well as plausible responses to likely regional climate shifts. Hence, further model development could provide a useful tool when building strategies for protecting these ecosystems, by informing site selection for conservation areas that will be favourable to forest-grassland mosaics under future climates.}, }
@article {pmid32896903, year = {2020}, author = {Santidrián Tomillo, P and Spotila, JR}, title = {Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination in Sea Turtles in the Context of Climate Change: Uncovering the Adaptive Significance.}, journal = {BioEssays : news and reviews in molecular, cellular and developmental biology}, volume = {42}, number = {11}, pages = {e2000146}, doi = {10.1002/bies.202000146}, pmid = {32896903}, issn = {1521-1878}, support = {//The Eartwatch Institute/International ; //The Leatherback Trust/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Female ; Reptiles ; Sex Determination Processes ; Sex Ratio ; Temperature ; *Turtles ; }, abstract = {The adaptive significance of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in reptiles remains unknown decades after TSD was first identified in this group. Concurrently, there is growing concern about the effect that rising temperatures may have on species with TSD, potentially producing extremely biased sex ratios or offspring of only one sex. The current state-of the-art in TSD research on sea turtles is reviewed here and, against current paradigm, it is proposed that TSD provides an advantage under warming climates. By means of coadaptation between early survival and sex ratios, sea turtles are able to maintain populations. When offspring survival declines at high temperatures, the sex that increases future fecundity (females) is produced, increasing resilience to climate warming. TSD could have helped reptiles to survive mass extinctions in the past via this model. Flaws in research on sex determination in sea turtles are also identified and it is suggested that the development of new techniques will revolutionize the field.}, }
@article {pmid32896822, year = {2020}, author = {Zanmassou, YC and Al-Hassan, RM and Mensah-Bonsu, A and Osei-Asare, YB and Igue, CB}, title = {Assessment of smallholder farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change: Use of a mixed weighting scheme.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {276}, number = {}, pages = {111275}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111275}, pmid = {32896822}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Benin ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Weighting scheme definition represents an important step in assessment of adaptive capacity to climate change with indicator approach since it defines the trade-offs among indicators or components and can be source of uncertainty. This study aims to assess smallholder farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change by using a mixed weighting scheme that reflect farmers' perceived importance of adaptive capacity components to inform policy makers. To achieve that objective, the sustainable livelihood framework was adopted and indicator approach was used for the assessment. The mixed weighting scheme were defined by using both equal weights and experts judgement methods during the assessment process. The mixed weighting scheme index is compared to the case where equal weights are applied in the assessment process and an uncertainty analysis was performed on relative standard deviation through a Monte Carlo simulation. Primary Data were collected from 450 farmers in two communities in northern Benin with a structured questionnaire and through focus groups discussion. The results show that smallholder farmers in both communities do not have the same perceived importance of adaptive capacity components. The index scores show that farmers have in majority low adaptive capacity. When weighted product aggregation method is used, there is more uncertainty related to the index computed with the mixed weighting scheme, but it leads to the same characterisation when compared with the index computed with the equal weights. It is recommended that mixed weighting scheme should be preferred for the assessment of adaptive capacity and weighted product aggregation method should be used.}, }
@article {pmid32896782, year = {2020}, author = {Hrabok, M and Delorme, A and Agyapong, VIO}, title = {Threats to Mental Health and Well-Being Associated with Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {76}, number = {}, pages = {102295}, doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102295}, pmid = {32896782}, issn = {1873-7897}, mesh = {Canada ; Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Mental Health ; *Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a contributor to extreme weather events and natural disasters. The mental health effects of climate change are multifaceted, with post-traumatic stress disorder and depression predominant. This paper aims to describe the impact of climate change on mental health conditions, including risk and protective factors related to the expression of mental health conditions post-disaster, as well as a discussion of our local experience with a devastating wildfire to our region within Canada. The risk of the development of mental health conditions post-disaster is not equally distributed; research has consistently demonstrated that specific risk factors (e.g., gender, socioeconomic status and education, pre-existing mental health symptomatology), are associated with increased vulnerability to mental health conditions following natural disasters. There are multiple strategies that must be undertaken by communities to enhance adjustment and coping post-disaster, including improved access to care, inter-agency cooperation, enhanced community resiliency, and adequate preparation.}, }
@article {pmid32896304, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, J and Potter, T and Zahner, S}, title = {Policy brief on climate change and mental health/well-being.}, journal = {Nursing outlook}, volume = {68}, number = {4}, pages = {517-522}, pmid = {32896304}, issn = {1528-3968}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Policy ; Female ; Health Promotion/*methods ; Health Status ; Humans ; Male ; Mental Disorders/*epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Middle Aged ; *Nurse's Role ; Nursing Staff/*psychology ; Stress, Psychological/*epidemiology ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change has a significant global impact on individuals' mental health and well-being. However, global health systems are inadequately prepared to address this issue. Studies indicate that climate events such as floods, droughts, tornados, earthquakes, and fires not only exacerbate chronic mental illness, but also impact well-being causing anxiety, stress, and in the worst case, suicide. The World Health Organization estimates that 12.6 million preventable deaths per year can be attributed to environmental factors, all of which are exacerbated by climate change, and an additional 250,000 deaths per year are projected between 2030 and 2050. Nurses must advocate for research, education, and policies that support disaster-resilient infrastructure and human services that allow communities across the globe to effectively mitigate the impact of climate change on human health.}, }
@article {pmid32894633, year = {2020}, author = {Khoury, S and Coomes, DA}, title = {Resilience of Spanish forests to recent droughts and climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {12}, pages = {7079-7098}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15268}, pmid = {32894633}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Cambridge Commonwealth, European &amp; International Trust/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Forestry ; Forests ; Mediterranean Region ; Trees ; }, abstract = {A widespread increase in forest cover is underway in northern Mediterranean forests because of land abandonment and decreased wood demand, but the resilience of these successional forests to climate change remains unresolved. Here we use 18-year time series of canopy greenness derived from satellite imagery (NDVI) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on Spain's forests. Specifically, we analyzed how NDVI was influenced by the climatic water balance (i.e. Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), using monthly time-series extracted from 3,100 pixels of forest, categorized into ten forest types. The forests increased in leaf area index by 0.01 per year on average (from 1.7 in 2000 to 1.9 in 2017) but there was enormous variation among years related to climatic water balance. Forest types varied in response to drought events: those dominated by drought-avoiding species showed strong covariance between greenness and SPEI, while those dominated by drought-tolerant species showed weak covariance. Native forests usually recovered more than 80% of greenness within the 18 months and the remainder within 5 years, but plantations of Eucalyptus were less resilient. Management to increase the resilience of forests-a key goal of forestry in the Mediterranean region-appears to have had a positive effect: canopy greenness within protected forests was more resilient to drought than within non-protected forests. In conclusion, many of Spain's successional forests have been resilient to drought over the past 18 years, from the perspective of space. Future studies will need to combine remote sensing with field-based analyses of physiological tolerances and mortality processes to understand how Mediterranean forests will respond to the rapid climate change predicted for this region in the coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid32893336, year = {2020}, author = {Haris, SM and Mustafa, FB and Raja Ariffin, RN}, title = {Systematic Literature Review of Climate Change Governance Activities of Environmental Nongovernmental Organizations in Southeast Asia.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {66}, number = {5}, pages = {816-825}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01355-9}, pmid = {32893336}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern ; *Climate Change ; Government ; *Organizations ; }, abstract = {Environmental nongovernmental organizations (ENGOs) are considered key players for engendering good climate change governance to address both climate change and sustainable development. The participation of ENGOs in climate change governance occurs in a four-phase policy cycle. They include (1) identification of policy options, (2) policy formulation, (3) policy implementation, and (4) policy monitoring and evaluation. The ENGOs, however, have been criticized for their lack of effectiveness, and their roles in tackling climate change remain unclear. To date, the study on the roles and activities of Southeast Asian ENGOs in climate change governance has been under-researched. This study, therefore, applies a systematic literature review of 19 published articles from Scopus and Web of Science-indexed journal to understand the current state of the Southeast Asian ENGOs participation in climate change governance based on the four-phase policy cycle. The findings show that the ENGOs in Southeast Asia are involved directly and indirectly in climate change governance. They are significant actors in the implementation of the climate change policy, but they play a minimal role in the formulation of said policy. It implies that they could also be a vital partner to the government in the climate change governance process as they can bring effective policy improvements. Lastly, this review will recommend future avenues of research for scholars.}, }
@article {pmid32892239, year = {2020}, author = {Nagai, S and Saitoh, TM and Morimoto, H}, title = {Does global warming decrease the correlation between cherry blossom flowering date and latitude in Japan?.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {12}, pages = {2205-2210}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-02004-w}, pmid = {32892239}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Flowers ; *Global Warming ; Japan ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In Japan, the geographical distribution of the first date of flowering (FFD) of Yoshino cherry trees (Cerasus ×yedoensis) in 2020, a year when temperatures were mild during the previous December and March, was different from the average FFD, which progresses northward along a latitudinal gradient. We hypothesized that global warming may have changed the average geographical pattern of the FFD. To test this hypothesis, we examined the relationship between the observed FFD and latitude at 42 sites during the period 1953-2020. We found that the correlation between FFD and latitude had decreased since 1980. This decrease may have been caused by a rise of temperatures in winter that delayed dormancy release and the subsequent FFD in areas where the annual mean temperature is high. Our results suggest that the correlation between FFD and latitude will decrease further as the climate warms in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32892000, year = {2021}, author = {Zhang, H and Huo, S and Yeager, KM and Wu, F}, title = {Sedimentary DNA record of eukaryotic algal and cyanobacterial communities in a shallow Lake driven by human activities and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {753}, number = {}, pages = {141985}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141985}, pmid = {32892000}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; DNA ; Ecosystem ; Eukaryota ; Eutrophication ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Lakes ; }, abstract = {Global freshwater lakes are changing due to human activities and climate change. Unfortunately, sufficient long-term monitoring is lacking for most lakes. However, lake sedimentary archives can extend the instrumental record and reveal historical environmental trends. In particular, sedimentary DNA analysis of lacustrine sediment cores can aid the reconstruction of past trends in eukaryotic algal and cyanobacterial communities, as was conducted in this study for Lake Chaohu in China. The results presented here indicate that the construction of the Chaohu Dam in 1963 is associated with decreased richness of eukaryotic algal and cyanobacterial communities. Several groups, including the eukaryotic algal taxa, Chlorophyceae, and cyanobacterial groups like Dolichospermum, Microcystis, Planktothricoides, Cyanobium, Pseudanabaena, and Synechococcus, increased in abundance following inferred historical nutrient enrichment. Nutrient concentrations and hydrologic conditions were further implicated as the dominant controls on communities based on Random Forest and generalized additive modeling statistical analyses. In particular, significant increases in lake hydraulic residence times after the construction of the Chaohu Dam were significantly associated with altered biological community structures. Further, phosphorus enrichment was positively associated with increased richness and diversity of these communities following the 1980s. In addition, effects from increased atmospheric temperatures on eukaryotic algal and cyanobacterial communities were apparent. Here, high-throughput sequencing analysis of sedimentary DNA allowed the inference of long-term biodiversity dynamics of Lake Chaohu. These results underscore the important impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on aquatic ecosystems at the decadal scale.}, }
@article {pmid32890800, year = {2021}, author = {Theusme, C and Avendaño-Reyes, L and Macías-Cruz, U and Correa-Calderón, A and García-Cueto, RO and Mellado, M and Vargas-Villamil, L and Vicente-Pérez, A}, title = {Climate change vulnerability of confined livestock systems predicted using bioclimatic indexes in an arid region of México.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {751}, number = {}, pages = {141779}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141779}, pmid = {32890800}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; *Heat Stress Disorders/veterinary ; Hot Temperature ; Humidity ; Livestock ; Mexico ; Sheep ; Swine ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major world-wide challenge to livestock production because food security is likely to be compromised by increased heat stress of the animals. The objective of this study was to characterize, using bioclimatic indexes, two livestock regions located in an arid zone of México, and to use this information to predict the impact of global warming on animal production systems of these regions located in the state of Baja California (México). A 5-year database (i.e., 2011 to 2015) consisting of about one million data points from two zones (i.e., coast, valley) from four meteorological stations in the north of Baja California were used. Bioclimatic indexes were constructed for the four types of livestock production systems most common in this region, being: dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep, pigs. The temperature-humidity index (THI) thresholds used to classify heat stress were determined and scaled for each livestock species as: THIbeef and THIpig 74 units; THImilk 72 units; and THIsheep 23 units. Statistical differences between indices were detected (P < 0.01) during summer for the valley and coast zones as (THIbeef = 72.9 and 51.8; THImilk = 80.6 and 67.4; THIpigs = 83.9 and 65.2; THIsheep = 29.5 and 20.1 units). Coast zone weather did not suggest vulnerability of livestock production systems to heat stress at any time of the year, but heat stress risk during summer for valley zone dairy cattle, sheep and pigs was classified as severe, but lower for feedlot cattle. Prediction models showed significant adjustment just in the coastal zone for THImilk, THIsheep, and THIsheep, suggesting more impact of global warming during summer in the coastal zone. Use of management strategies to reduce heat load of domestic animals during summer in northern Baja California is essential to maintain their productivity, with more emphasis in the valley zone.}, }
@article {pmid32889471, year = {2021}, author = {Del Buono, D}, title = {Can biostimulants be used to mitigate the effect of anthropogenic climate change on agriculture? It is time to respond.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {751}, number = {}, pages = {141763}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141763}, pmid = {32889471}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Humans ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change, namely climate alterations induced by human activities, is causing some issues to agricultural systems for their vulnerability to extreme events. Forecasts predict a global population increase in the near years that will exacerbate this situation, elevating the global demand for food. It will pose severe concerns in terms of natural resource usage and availability. Agriculture is one of the anthropogenic activities that will be more affected in the future. Climate extremes menace to affect the quantity and quality of crop production severely. Drought, water and soil salinity are considered among the most problematic factors that anthropogenic climate change will increase. This complex and worrying scenario requires the urgent implementation of sustainable measures which are capable of improving crop yield and quality, fostering the robustness and resilience of cropping systems. Among the more current methodology, the use of natural plant biostimulants (PBs) has been proposed to improve plant resistance to abiotic environmental stresses. The advantage of using these substances is due to their effectiveness in improving crop productivity and quality. Therefore, in this review, the most recent researches dealing with the use of natural PBs for improving plant resistance to drought and salinity, in an anthropogenic climate change scenario, have been reported and critically discussed.}, }
@article {pmid32889453, year = {2021}, author = {Guo, H and Wang, R and Garfin, GM and Zhang, A and Lin, D and Liang, Q and Wang, J}, title = {Rice drought risk assessment under climate change: Based on physical vulnerability a quantitative assessment method.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {751}, number = {}, pages = {141481}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141481}, pmid = {32889453}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Oryza ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Drought is the most serious natural disaster causing severe damage to agriculture. Drought impacts on rice (Oryza sativa) production present a major threat to future global food security. In this paper, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to simulate the growth of rice, in different periods (short-term (2019-2039), medium-term (2040-2069), long-term (2070-2099)), based on multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Drought intensity and rice physical vulnerability curves were assessed, based on the output parameters of EPIC, to evaluate global rice yield risk, due to drought. The results show that the average expected loss rate of global rice yield may reach 13.1% (±0.4%) in the future. The high-risk area of rice drought is mainly located in the north of 30°N. The fluctuation of rice drought risk and the proportion of increased risk areas will increase significantly. About 77.6% of the changes in rice drought risk are explained by variations in shortwave radiation (r = 0.88). Projections show that the average value of daily shortwave radiation increases by 1 W/m[2] during the rice growth period, accompanied by an expected rice yield loss rate of about 12.7%. The rice drought risk methods presented in this paper provide plausible estimates of forecasting future drought risk under climate change, and address challenges of sparse data; we believe these methods can be applied to decisions for reducing drought-related crop losses and ensuring global food security.}, }
@article {pmid32889361, year = {2020}, author = {Middleton, J and Cunsolo, A and Jones-Bitton, A and Shiwak, I and Wood, M and Pollock, N and Flowers, C and Harper, SL}, title = {"We're people of the snow:" Weather, climate change, and Inuit mental wellness.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {262}, number = {}, pages = {113137}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113137}, pmid = {32889361}, issn = {1873-5347}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Inuit ; *Mental Health ; Newfoundland and Labrador ; Snow ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Rapid environmental change due to climate change impacts Inuit mental wellness by altering the relationships between people, place, livelihoods, and culture. Little is known, however, about how fluctuations in weather contribute to the experience of place and the connection to mental wellness in Inuit communities. This study aimed to characterize the importance of changes in weather among Inuit, and how these changes influence mental health and wellness in the context of climate change. Data were drawn from a community-driven and Inuit-led study in the Nunatsiavut region of Labrador, Canada. In-depth interviews (n = 116 people) were conducted between November 2012 to May 2013 in the five Nunatsiavut communities. Qualitative data were thematically analyzed using a constant comparative method. Results indicated that weather impacted mental wellness through three key pathways: 1) shaping daily lived experiences including connection to place and other determinants of wellbeing; 2) altering mood and emotion on a transient basis; and 3) seasonally influencing individual and community health and wellbeing. These results demonstrate the immediate role weather has in shaping mental wellness in Nunatsiavut. In turn, this understanding of the climate-mental wellness relationship points to multiple pathways for action on climate adaptation policy and programming, and underscores the need for more culturally-specific and place-based investigations to appropriately respond to the mental health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32888561, year = {2020}, author = {Almeida-Silva, J and Campos, DF and Almeida-Val, VMF}, title = {Metabolic adjustment of Pyrrhulina aff. brevis exposed to different climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {92}, number = {}, pages = {102657}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2020.102657}, pmid = {32888561}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Basal Metabolism ; Brazil ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Characiformes/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Oxygen/metabolism ; Oxygen Consumption ; }, abstract = {The increases in CO2 concentrations and, consequently, temperature due to climate change are predicted to intensify. Understanding the physiological responses of Pyrrhulina aff. brevis to the climatic scenarios proposed by the IPCC (2014) for the next 100 years is of fundamental importance to determine its susceptibility. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate the effects of the predicted climatic scenarios for the year 2100 on the metabolic adjustments of P. aff. brevis . Specifically, the rate of oxygen uptake, electron transport system capacity, glycogen and lactate content and the role of Na[+]K[+]-ATPases and H[+]-ATPase were evaluated. P. aff. brevis individuals were exposed for 15 days to the simulated climatic scenarios in climate scenario rooms, where temperature and CO2 in the air were controlled. Two rooms were used to simulate the climatic scenarios predicted by the IPCC (2014): moderate (RCP 6; 2.5 °C and 400 μatm CO2 above current levels) and extreme (RCP 8.5; 4.5 °C and 900 μatm CO2 above current levels), in addition to the "control room" that represents the current scenario. There was an increase in the metabolic rate (MO2) in the animals acclimated to the climate change scenarios (RCP 6 and RCP 8.5) compared to the current scenario. These responses showed a typical effect of temperature on energy demand in relation to the increase in temperature and CO2. Our data showed an increase in O2 consumption (MO2), lactate levels and H[+]-ATPase activity of the animals acclimated to the moderate and extreme climate change scenarios. Such adjustments presented a clear metabolic imbalance, an alteration that may imply challenges for survival, growth, distribution and reproduction in the face of the expected environmental changes for the year 2100.}, }
@article {pmid32887018, year = {2020}, author = {Mafi-Gholami, D and Jaafari, A and Zenner, EK and Nouri Kamari, A and Tien Bui, D}, title = {Vulnerability of coastal communities to climate change: Thirty-year trend analysis and prospective prediction for the coastal regions of the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {741}, number = {}, pages = {140305}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140305}, pmid = {32887018}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study relates changes in social vulnerability of 20 counties on the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf (PG) and the Gulf of Oman (GO) over a 30-year period (1988-2017) to changing socio-economic conditions and environmental (climate) hazard. Social vulnerability in 2030, 2040 and 2050 is predicted based on the RCP8.5 climate change scenario that projects drought intensities and rising sea levels. Social vulnerability was based on the three dimensions of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity using 18 socio-economic and five climate indicators identified by experts. All but one indicator related very strongly to the dimension it sought to represent. Despite improvements in adaptive capacity over time, social vulnerability increased between 1988 and 2017 and rates of change accelerated after change point years that occurred between 1998 and 2002 in most counties. Extrapolating past changes of each indicator over time enabled forecasts of social vulnerability in the future. While social variability decreased between 2017 and 2030, it increased again between 2030 and 2050. The lowest future social vulnerability is expected along the eastern PG coast, the greatest along the western PG and the GO. The worsening of socio-economic indicators contributed to increased sensitivity, and increased drought intensities plus the expected rise in sea levels will lead to social vulnerabilities in 2050 comparable to present levels. Between 1.4 and 1.7 M people will live in areas that are likely submerged by water in the future. About 80% of these people live in six counties with variable social vulnerabilities. While counties with lower social variabilities might be better able to cope with the challenges posed by climate change, adaptation programs to enhance the resilience of the residents in these and the remaining counties along the PG and the GO need to be implemented soon to avoid uncontrolled mass migration of millions of people from the region.}, }
@article {pmid32886996, year = {2020}, author = {Zou, Q and Cui, P and Jiang, H and Wang, J and Li, C and Zhou, B}, title = {Analysis of regional river blocking by debris flows in response to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {741}, number = {}, pages = {140262}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140262}, pmid = {32886996}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The river-blocking effects of debris flows have become common in numerous catchments in response to climate and environmental changes, and these effects have caused multiple, overlapping, and interconnected chain reactions that have led to huge losses in alpine regions. Considering this issue, this article developed a quantitative method for the regional river-blocking hazard assessment of debris flows by analyzing the in-depth relations among river-blocking hazard formation processes, factors and evolution mechanisms. Taking the debris flows in the Parlung Zangbo Basin in China as a case study, a multidimensional analysis was performed to analyze the characteristics of the hazard sequence and its relationship with climate change, including changes in temperature and precipitation. Accordingly, a new step toward a more comprehensive hazard assessment is proposed by establishing both a model and a system for regional river-blocking hazard assessment to analyze the debris flow evolution processes and environmental dynamics. Specifically, the sources of loose material were quantitatively estimated by establishing mathematical models based on the geometrical characteristics of diverse moraines, and the debris flow runoff was scientifically determined by focusing on the analysis of moraine sources, the brittleness index of the sediment mass and the geomorphological connectivity. Next, through coupling with the hydrodynamic conditions of debris flows and river flows, methods were established to determine the blocking degree of debris flow hazards at the regional scale. Validated by a field study and a remote-sensing interpretation of actual debris flows, a debris-flow-induced river-blocking hazard map was obtained, and the assessment results were in accordance with the actual disaster situation. The analysis shows that the distribution of zones with high to very high levels of river blocking is closely correlated with the topographic characteristics and actual disaster sequences of debris flows. These findings suggest that the assessment results provide scientific support for engineering planning and hazard prevention in climate-sensitive areas; thus, the presented method may serve as pertinent guidance for regional river-blocking hazard assessments of debris flows in the Parlung Zangbo Basin and beyond.}, }
@article {pmid32886323, year = {2021}, author = {Poudyal, NC and Joshi, O and Hodges, DG and Bhandari, H and Bhattarai, P}, title = {Climate change, risk perception, and protection motivation among high-altitude residents of the Mt. Everest region in Nepal.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {2}, pages = {505-518}, pmid = {32886323}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Motivation ; Nepal ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Mountain ecosystems are considered vulnerable to early impacts of climate change. Whether and how local residents of these areas perceive these changes, however, remain under-studied questions. By conducting a household survey in the Khumbu region of Nepal, this study assessed local residents' experience-based perception of changes in climate trends and patterns, perceived risk, and attitudes towards climate issues. Multivariate cluster analysis based on residents' climate change beliefs revealed three segments: "Cautious," "Disengaged," and "Alarmed." A comparison of these segments along key psychosocial constructs of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) revealed significant inter-segment differences in residents' perception of severity, vulnerability, response efficacy, self-efficacy, and response cost associated with engaging in mitigating behavior. Results shed light on how residents of high elevation areas that are considered to be exposed to early impacts of climate change perceive the risk and intend to respond. These findings could also assist stakeholders working in other similar mountain ecosystems in understanding vulnerability and in working towards climate readiness.}, }
@article {pmid32884602, year = {2020}, author = {Yin, R and Kardol, P and Thakur, MP and Gruss, I and Wu, GL and Eisenhauer, N and Schädler, M}, title = {Soil functional biodiversity and biological quality under threat: intensive land use outweighs climate change.}, journal = {Soil biology &amp; biochemistry}, volume = {147}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {32884602}, issn = {0038-0717}, support = {677232/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Climate change and land use intensification are the two most common global change drivers of biodiversity loss. Like other organisms, the soil meso-fauna are expected to modify their functional diversity and composition in response to climate and land use changes. Here, we investigated the functional responses of Collembola, one of the most abundant and ecologically important groups of soil invertebrates. This study was conducted at the Global Change Experimental Facility (GCEF) in central Germany, where we tested the effects of climate (ambient vs. 'future' as projected for this region for the years between 2070 and 2100), land use (conventional farming, organic farming, intensively-used meadow, extensively-used meadow, and extensively-used pasture), and their interactions on the functional diversity (FD), community-weighted mean (CWM) traits (life-history, morphology), and functional composition of Collembola, as well as the Soil Biological Quality-Collembola (QBS-c) index. We found that land use was overwhelmingly the dominant driver of shifts in functional diversity, functional traits, and functional composition of Collembola, and of shifts in soil biological quality. These significant land use effects were mainly due to the differences between the two main land use types, i.e. cropland vs. grasslands. Specifically, Collembola functional biodiversity and soil biological quality were significantly lower in croplands than grasslands. However, no interactive effect of climate × land use was found in this study, suggesting that land use effects on Collembola were independent of the climate change scenario. Overall, our study shows that functional responses of Collembola are highly vulnerable to land use intensification under both climate scenarios. We conclude that land use changes reduce functional biodiversity and biological quality of soil.}, }
@article {pmid32884099, year = {2020}, author = {Jordan, CJ and Palmer, AA}, title = {Correction: ACNP efforts toward reducing climate change.}, journal = {Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology}, volume = {45}, number = {13}, pages = {2301}, doi = {10.1038/s41386-020-00837-y}, pmid = {32884099}, issn = {1740-634X}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32883484, year = {2020}, author = {Saez de Bikuña, K and Garcia, R and Dias, AC and Freire, F}, title = {Global warming implications from increased forest biomass utilization for bioenergy in a supply-constrained context.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {263}, number = {}, pages = {110292}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110292}, pmid = {32883484}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Biomass ; Climate ; *Forests ; *Global Warming ; Portugal ; }, abstract = {This article analyzes different forest management strategies to meet the increasing demand of biomass for bioenergy and assesses the resulting global warming implications. Applied to maritime pine forest plantations in Portugal, the assessed strategies are: full harvest of residues (FULL); sustainable and proactive management (SMART); expansion of forest plantations on abandoned farmland (EXP); and biomass import (IMP). A dynamic CO2 inventory was obtained for each scenario using a parametric stand-level C-flux model adapted to Portuguese conditions, which was then extended to the landscape-level and coupled to a dynamic climate model. The time-adjusted absolute global warming potential (AGWP) was then calculated at both stand and landscape levels, considering the timing of all CO2 emissions and uptakes (both fossil and biogenic). To test the robustness of the findings, a sensitivity analysis was performed. Results show that, in a supply-constrained context like Portugal, SMART and EXP management strategies can provide important global warming mitigation benefits (GWPbio < 0), although their supply-response is slow (long-term strategies). On the other hand, FULL and IMP management strategies show moderate to null AGWP reduction potential (0 < GWPbio < 1), while involving other possible risks (e.g., exacerbated soil erosion, nutrient depletion or uncertain impacts abroad), but their supply-response is fast (short-term strategies). National forest regulations and energy policies should be revised to address the drawbacks related to all management strategies and to unleash the multiple environmental benefits they can provide in the short- and long-term.}, }
@article {pmid32883158, year = {2020}, author = {Lee, K and Barnett, J}, title = {'Will polar bears melt?' A qualitative analysis of children's questions about climate change.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {868-880}, pmid = {32883158}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Schools ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a grave threat to future generations, yet relatively little research examines children's understandings of the issue. This study examines the questions children ask about climate change - rather than their answers to adults' questions - exploring whether their questions suggest they view climate change as psychologically proximal or distant. Children aged 10-12 from 14 UK schools took part in an online event, asking scientists questions in a 'climate zone'. The questions were analysed using thematic analysis. The themes related to the nature and reality of climate change, its causes, impacts, and solutions. Participants seemed most exercised about the future impacts of and ways of ameliorating climate change, with some questions evoking science-fiction disaster imagery. The contents of participants' questions elucidated the ways in which they position climate change as both a proximal and distant phenomenon.}, }
@article {pmid32879793, year = {2020}, author = {Wufu, A and Wang, H and Chen, Y and Rusuli, Y and Ma, L and Yang, S and Zhang, F and Wang, D and Li, Q and Li, Y}, title = {Lake water volume fluctuations in response to climate change in Xinjiang, China from 2002 to 2018.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {e9683}, pmid = {32879793}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Climate change has a global impact on the water cycle and its spatial patterns, and these impacts are more pronounced in eco-fragile regions. Arid regions are significantly affected by human activities like farming, and climate change, which influences lake water volumes, especially in different latitudes. This study integrates radar altimetry data from 2002 to 2018 with optical remote sensing images to analyze changes in the lake areas, levels, and volumes at different altitudes in Xinjiang, China. We analyzed changes in lake volumes in March, June, and October and studied their causes. The results showed large changes in the surface areas, levels, and volumes of lakes at different altitudes. During 2002-2010, the lakes in low- and medium-altitude areas were shrinking but lakes in high altitude areas were expanding. Monthly analysis revealed more diversified results: the lake water levels and volumes tended to decrease in March (-0.10 m/year, 37.55×10[8] m[3]) and increase in June (0.03 m/year, 3.48×10[8] m[3]) and October (0.04 m/year, 26.90×10[8] m[3]). The time series lake water volume data was reconstructed for 2011 to 2018 based on the empirical model and the total lake water volume showed a slightly increasing trend during this period (71.35×10[8] m[3]). We hypothesized that changes in lake water at high altitudes were influenced by temperature-induced glacial snow melt and lake water in low- to medium-altitude areas was most influenced by human activities like agricultural irrigation practices.}, }
@article {pmid32879522, year = {2020}, author = {Stephen, C and Wade, J}, title = {Missing in action: Sustainable climate change adaptation evidence for animal health.}, journal = {The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne}, volume = {61}, number = {9}, pages = {966-970}, pmid = {32879522}, issn = {0008-5286}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Health impacts of climate change are now inevitable. The objective of this study was to see if animal health climate change adaptation was a subject of scholarly inquiry, advice, or discussion and if there was an evidence base from which to make adaptation recommendations. A scoping review of English-language literature over the past 10 years was undertaken and the top findings related to animal health adaptation and climate change were inventoried on Google. Documents found in the search focussed predominantly on hypothesizing what hazards might occur with climate change, describing their spread or proposing possible impacts. Scant evidence was found of scholarship related to sustainable animal health climate change adaptation planning or action. Investment and attention to adaptation planning and research are needed to increase confidence in climate change recommendations in the face of continuing uncertainty about the breadth of effects on animal health and the best actions to take in preparing and responding to them.}, }
@article {pmid32879502, year = {2020}, author = {Cai, W and Ng, B and Geng, T and Wu, L and Santoso, A and McPhaden, MJ}, title = {Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {585}, number = {7823}, pages = {68-73}, pmid = {32879502}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {El Niño and La Niña, collectively referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are not only highly consequential[1-6] but also strongly nonlinear[7-14]. For example, the maximum warm anomalies of El Niño, which occur in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, are larger than the maximum cold anomalies of La Niña, which are centred in the equatorial central Pacific Ocean[7-9]. The associated atmospheric nonlinear thermal damping cools the equatorial Pacific during El Niño but warms it during La Niña[15,16]. Under greenhouse warming, climate models project an increase in the frequency of strong El Niño and La Niña events, but the change differs vastly across models[17], which is partially attributed to internal variability[18-23]. Here we show that like a butterfly effect[24], an infinitesimal random perturbation to identical initial conditions induces vastly different initial ENSO variability, which systematically affects its response to greenhouse warming a century later. In experiments with higher initial variability, a greater cumulative oceanic heat loss from ENSO thermal damping reduces stratification of the upper equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to a smaller increase in ENSO variability under subsquent greenhouse warming. This self-modulating mechanism operates in two large ensembles generated using two different models, each commencing from identical initial conditions but with a butterfly perturbation[24,25]; it also operates in a large ensemble generated with another model commencing from different initial conditions[25,26] and across climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project[27,28]. Thus, if the greenhouse-warming-induced increase in ENSO variability[29] is initially suppressed by internal variability, future ENSO variability is likely to be enhanced, and vice versa. This self-modulation linking ENSO variability across time presents a different perspective for understanding the dynamics of ENSO variability on multiple timescales in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid32878309, year = {2020}, author = {Galluzzi, G and Seyoum, A and Halewood, M and López Noriega, I and Welch, EW}, title = {The Role of Genetic Resources in Breeding for Climate Change: The Case of Public Breeding Programmes in Eighteen Developing Countries.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {32878309}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {CCAFS P66//Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers/ ; CCAFS P1589//Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers/ ; Genebank Platform//Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers/ ; 21820/DSO0113359//Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development/ ; }, abstract = {The role of plant breeding in adapting crops to climate changes that affect food production in developing countries is recognized as extremely important and urgent, alongside other agronomic, socio-economic and policy adaptation pathways. To enhance plant breeders' capacity to respond to climate challenges, it is acknowledged that they need to be able to access and use as much genetic diversity as they can get. Through an analysis of data from a global survey, we explore if and how public breeders in selected developing countries are responding to climate challenges through a renewed or innovative use of plant genetic resources, particularly in terms of types of material incorporated into their breeding work as well as sources of such germplasm. It also looks at the possible limitations breeders encounter in their efforts towards exploring diversity for adaptation. Breeders are clearly considering climate challenges. In general, their efforts are aimed at intensifying their breeding work on traits that they were already working on before climate change was so widely discussed. Similarly, the kinds of germplasm they use, and the sources from which they obtain it, do not appear to have changed significantly over the course of recent years. The main challenges breeders faced in accessing germplasm were linked to administrative/legal factors, particularly related to obtaining genetic resources across national borders. They also underscore technical challenges such as a lack of appropriate technologies to exploit germplasm sets such as crop wild relatives and landraces. Addressing these limitations will be crucial to fully enhance the role of public sector breeders in helping to adapt vulnerable agricultural systems to the challenges of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32878161, year = {2020}, author = {Awuor, L and Meldrum, R and Liberda, EN}, title = {Institutional Engagement Practices as Barriers to Public Health Capacity in Climate Change Policy Discourse: Lessons from the Canadian Province of Ontario.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {32878161}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; *Health Facilities ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Ontario ; Policy Making ; *Public Health ; *Stakeholder Participation ; }, abstract = {Public health engagement in the communication, discussion, and development of climate change policies is essential for climate change policy decisions and discourse. This study examines how the existing governance approaches impact, enable, or constrain the inclusion, participation, and deliberation of public health stakeholders in the climate change policy discourse. Using the case study of the Canadian Province of Ontario, we conducted semi-structured, key informant interviews of public health (11) and non-public health (13) participants engaged in climate change policies in the province. The study results reveal that engagement and partnerships on climate change policies occurred within and across public health and non-public health organizations in Ontario. These engagements impacted public health's roles, decisions, mandate, and capacities beyond the climate change discourse; enabled access to funds, expertise, and new stakeholders; built relationships for future engagements; supported knowledge sharing, generation, and creation; and advanced public health interests in political platforms and decision making. However, public health's participation and deliberation were constrained by a fragmented sectoral approach, a lack of holistic inter-organizational structures and process, political and bureaucratic influences, irregular and unestablished communication channels for public health integration, and identities and culture focused on functions, mandates, biased ideologies, and a lack of clear commitment to engage public health. We conclude by providing practical approaches for integrating public health into climate change discourse and policymaking processes and advancing public health partnerships and collaborative opportunities.}, }
@article {pmid32877012, year = {2021}, author = {Rahmasary, AN and Koop, SH and van Leeuwen, CJ}, title = {Assessing Bandung's Governance Challenges of Water, Waste, and Climate Change: Lessons from Urban Indonesia.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {434-444}, pmid = {32877012}, issn = {1551-3793}, support = {687809//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/ ; //LPDP (Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education/ ; //Funding POWER in H2020-Water/ ; }, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Indonesia ; *Waste Management ; Wastewater ; Water ; }, abstract = {This study assesses the gaps, opportunities, and priorities of Bandung in managing its water and waste challenges. The City Blueprint Approach is used to identify pressures, to measure the city's Integrated Water Resources Management performance, and to assess its governance. Based on the analyses of Bandung, 4 topics are discussed in more detail: 1) the transferability of the lessons from Bandung, 2) the challenges of solid waste management in Indonesian cities, 3) community-based sanitation, and 4) implications for informal settlements. The assessment reveals that Bandung's basic water services are largely met but flood risks are high and wastewater treatment is poorly covered, leading to large-scale pollution. This is amplified by extensive land-use change and poor solid waste collection and treatment, as waste is almost completely dumped in landfills. Proper solid waste handling will reduce landfill dependency. Slum areas are disproportionately affected by climate-related hazards and continuously under recognized in the discussion of cities' risk and vulnerability, while its dwellers are the most vulnerable members of the society. Bandung has started with slum area legalization which provides slum dwellers with legal security that protects their right to live as well as access to basic public infrastructures. Inadequate monitoring and uncoordinated financial source allocations are among the governance gaps. Governance is reactive and community involvement is low. Yet, Bandung exhibits the characteristics of a collaborative city with the potential to maximize its cross-stakeholder learning with supportive leadership. Bandung and other cities in Indonesia face multilevel governance gaps. Bandung is recommended to expand the cooperation of private, civil, and public actors and implement network governance and decentralized management approaches focusing on improving the implementing capacity, better monitoring, cocreation, and better exploration of the options for financial support. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:434-444. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology &amp; Chemistry (SETAC).}, }
@article {pmid32870567, year = {2020}, author = {Boatman, TG and Upton, GJG and Lawson, T and Geider, RJ}, title = {Projected expansion of Trichodesmium's geographical distribution and increase in growth potential in response to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {6445-6456}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15324}, pmid = {32870567}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NE/J500379/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; NE/P002374/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Nitrogen Fixation ; *Trichodesmium ; }, abstract = {Estimates of marine N2 fixation range from 52 to 73 Tg N/year, of which we calculate up to 84% is from Trichodesmium based on previous measurements of nifH gene abundance and our new model of Trichodesmium growth. Here, we assess the likely effects of four major climate change-related abiotic factors on the spatiotemporal distribution and growth potential of Trichodesmium for the last glacial maximum (LGM), the present (2006-2015) and the end of this century (2100) by mapping our model of Trichodesmium growth onto inferred global surface ocean fields of pCO2 , temperature, light and Fe. We conclude that growth rate was severely limited by low pCO2 at the LGM, that current pCO2 levels do not significantly limit Trichodesmium growth and thus, the potential for enhanced growth from future increases in CO2 is small. We also found that the area of the ocean where sea surface temperatures (SST) are within Trichodesmium's thermal niche increased by 32% from the LGM to present, but further increases in SST due to continued global warming will reduce this area by 9%. However, the range reduction at the equator is likely to be offset by enhanced growth associated with expansion of regions with optimal or near optimal Fe and light availability. Between now and 2100, the ocean area of optimal SST and irradiance is projected to increase by 7%, and the ocean area of optimal SST, irradiance and iron is projected to increase by 173%. Given the major contribution of this keystone species to annual N2 fixation and thus pelagic ecology, biogeochemistry and CO2 sequestration, the projected increase in the geographical range for optimal growth could provide a negative feedback to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations.}, }
@article {pmid32869905, year = {2020}, author = {Luter, HM and Andersen, M and Versteegen, E and Laffy, P and Uthicke, S and Bell, JJ and Webster, NS}, title = {Cross-generational effects of climate change on the microbiome of a photosynthetic sponge.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {22}, number = {11}, pages = {4732-4744}, doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.15222}, pmid = {32869905}, issn = {1462-2920}, support = {VUW1505//Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund/ ; //Victoria University of Wellington/ ; //Australian Institute of Marine Science/ ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Larva/microbiology/physiology ; *Microbiota ; Photosynthesis ; Porifera/*microbiology/*physiology ; Seawater/chemistry/microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Coral reefs are facing increasing pressure from rising seawater temperatures and ocean acidification. Sponges have been proposed as possible winners in the face of climate change; however, little is known about the mechanisms underpinning their predicted tolerance. Here we assessed whether microbiome-mediated cross-generational acclimatization could enable the photosynthetic sponge Carteriospongia foliascens to survive under future climate scenarios. To achieve this, we first established the potential for vertical (cross-generational) transmission of symbionts. Sixty-four amplicon sequence variants accounting for >90% of the total C. foliascens microbial community were present across adult, larval and juvenile life stages, showing that a large proportion of the microbiome is vertically acquired and maintained. When C. foliascens were exposed to climate scenarios projected for 2050 and 2100, the host remained visibly unaffected (i.e. no necrosis/bleaching) and the overall microbiome was not significantly different amongst treatments in adult tissue, the respective larvae or recruits transplanted amongst climate treatments. However, indicator species analysis revealed that parental exposure to future climate scenarios altered the presence and abundance of a small suite of microbial taxa in the recruits, thereby revealing the potential for microbiome-mediated cross-generational acclimatization through both symbiont shuffling and symbiont switching within a vertically acquired microbiome.}, }
@article {pmid32868426, year = {2020}, author = {Vandvik, V and Skarpaas, O and Klanderud, K and Telford, RJ and Halbritter, AH and Goldberg, DE}, title = {Biotic rescaling reveals importance of species interactions for variation in biodiversity responses to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {37}, pages = {22858-22865}, pmid = {32868426}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Grassland ; Plants ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Generality in understanding biodiversity responses to climate change has been hampered by substantial variation in the rates and even directions of response to a given change in climate. We propose that such context dependencies can be clarified by rescaling climate gradients in terms of the underlying biological processes, with biotic interactions as a particularly important process. We tested this rescaling approach in a replicated field experiment where entire montane grassland communities were transplanted in the direction of expected temperature and/or precipitation change. In line with earlier work, we found considerable variation across sites in community dynamics in response to climate change. However, these complex context dependencies could be substantially reduced or eliminated by rescaling climate drivers in terms of proxies of plant-plant interactions. Specifically, bryophytes limited colonization by new species into local communities, whereas the cover of those colonists, along with bryophytes, were the primary drivers of local extinctions. These specific interactions are relatively understudied, suggesting important directions for future work in similar systems. More generally, the success of our approach in explaining and simplifying landscape-level variation in climate change responses suggests that developing and testing proxies for relevant underlying processes could be a fruitful direction for building more general models of biodiversity response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32865682, year = {2020}, author = {Zhu, H and Xiong, X and Ao, H and Wu, C and He, Y and Hu, Z and Liu, G}, title = {Cladophora reblooming after half a century: effect of climate change-induced increases in the water level of the largest lake in Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {33}, pages = {42175-42181}, pmid = {32865682}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {Y85Z061601//the Featured Institute Service Project program of the Institute of Hydrobiology/ ; 2019QZKK0304//The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research program/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Chlorophyta ; *Climate Change ; Grassland ; Lakes ; Tibet ; Water ; }, abstract = {Massive Cladophora growth was reported half a century ago around Birds Island in Qinghai Lake, and in 2015, Cladophora populations have rebloomed and have formed green "meadows," with areas up to thousands of hectares. The present study investigated the distribution and biomass of Cladophora in Qinghai Lake and found that two key factors contribute to Cladophora blooming. First, recent climate change, especially increased precipitation, has induced the expansion of the lake's area, and the submerged grassland around Birds Island has provided a plethora of grass stems on which Cladophora can attach and twine. In addition, the submerged grasslands are covered with less than 1 m of water, which allows enough sunlight to support the growth of Cladophora on available substrates. Second, the submerged grassland may function as a key source of nutrients, especially phosphate. A large number of migratory birds live in these area for very long times, which lead to higher phosphorus content due to the accumulated birds dropping. Thus, the high phosphate level further exacerbates the massive growth. Future studies should investigate the functions of Cladophora in the nutrient cycling of submerged areas, and the improvement of methods for removing Cladophora biomass.}, }
@article {pmid32864193, year = {2020}, author = {Fathy, R and Rosenbach, M}, title = {Climate Change and Inpatient Dermatology.}, journal = {Current dermatology reports}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {201-209}, pmid = {32864193}, issn = {2162-4933}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change represents a major existential threat facing the global community, and it has already begun to affect human health in a multitude of ways. This review highlights and discusses the implications that climate change has already had and is expected to have for inpatient dermatologists.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: There are a variety of conditions affected by climate changes. The distribution and frequencies of infectious diseases and their vectors are changing in line with variations in climate conditions. Increased temperatures have already been associated with exacerbation of existing skin conditions, such as atopic dermatitis, and recent evidence suggests that higher temperatures will also magnify the effects of harmful ultraviolet radiation. Extreme weather events that result from climate change are followed by an array of dermatologic conditions that may be unusual for the given location. Inpatient dermatologists should be prepared to manage these potentially unfamiliar dermatologic consequences of climate change.<br><br>SUMMARY: Climate change will have widespread effects on the medical field, and inpatient dermatologists will be faced with their own unique set of challenges and practice variations. Practitioners should be familiar with the ongoing and predicted effects of climate change in their locations so that they can readily identify and treat associated conditions, and they should adjust their practice to reduce their carbon footprint and serve as a model for patients to do the same.}, }
@article {pmid32863604, year = {2019}, author = {Cherng, ST and Cangemi, I and Trostle, JA and Remais, J and Eisenberg, JNS}, title = {Social cohesion and passive adaptation in relation to climate change and disease.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {58}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {32863604}, issn = {0959-3780}, support = {R01 AI125842/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; U01 GM110712/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects biophysical processes related to the transmission of many infectious diseases, with potentially adverse consequences for the health of communities. While our knowledge of biophysical associations between meteorological factors and disease is steadily improving, our understanding of the social processes that shape adaptation to environmental perturbations lags behind. Using computational modeling methods, we explore the ways in which social cohesion can affect adaptation of disease prevention strategies when communities are exposed to different environmental scenarios that influence transmission pathways for diseases such as diarrhea. We developed an agent-based model in which household agents can choose between two behavioral strategies that offer different levels of protection against environmentally mediated disease transmission. One behavioral strategy is initially set as more protective, leading households to adopt it widely, but its efficacy is sensitive to variable weather conditions and stressors such as floods or droughts that modify the disease transmission system. The efficacy of the second strategy is initially moderate relative to the first and is insensitive to environmental changes. We examined how social cohesion (defined as average number of household social network connections) influences health outcomes when households attempt to identify an optimal strategy by copying the behaviors of socially connected neighbors who seem to have adapted successfully in the past. Our simulation experiments suggest that high-cohesion communities are able to rapidly disseminate the initially optimal behavioral strategy compared to low-cohesion communities. This rapid and pervasive change, however, decreases behavioral diversity; i.e., once a high cohesion community settles on a strategy, most or all households adopt that behavior. Following environmental changes that reduce the efficacy of the initially optimal strategy, rendering it suboptimal relative to the alternative strategy, high-cohesion communities can fail to adapt. As a result, despite faring better early in the course of computational experiments, high-cohesion communities may ultimately experience worse outcomes. In the face of uncertainty in predicting future environmental stressors due to climate change, strategies to improve effective adaptation to optimal disease prevention strategies should balance between intervention efforts that promote protective behaviors based on current scientific understanding and the need to guard against the crystallization of inflexible norms. Developing generalizable models allows us to integrate a wide range of theories multiple datasets pertaining to the relationship between social mechanisms and adaptation, which can provide further understanding of future climate change impacts. Models such as the one we present can generate hypotheses about the mechanisms that underlie the dynamics of adaptation events and suggest specific points of measurement to assess the impact of these mechanisms. They can be incorporated as modules within predictive simulations for specific socio-ecological contexts.}, }
@article {pmid32863519, year = {2020}, author = {Holl, AFC}, title = {Dark Side Archaeology: Climate Change and Mid-Holocene Saharan Pastoral Adaptation.}, journal = {The African archaeological review}, volume = {37}, number = {3}, pages = {491-495}, pmid = {32863519}, issn = {0263-0338}, abstract = {High-resolution paleoenvironmental research allows us to pinpoint the tempo and amplitude of past climate changes. Abrupt climate events have axiomatically triggered cascades of adjustments, in vegetation, fauna, humans, and pathogens. This essay focuses on the abrupt end of the African Humid Episode (9000-6000 cal BP), ca. 5000 cal BP in the Sahara. Neolithic pastoralists, practicing transhumance between sandy lowlands and Saharan mountains, adopted new cultural practices: cattle burials and livestock bone deposits in built installations. Their ritual nature is indisputable. But ritual for what? If considered from the perspective of livestock zoonoses, such practices may point to the "dark side" of cultural adjustments-strategies to counter human and livestock diseases. Livestock zoonoses are constant sources of emerging infectious diseases (EID) in the present, as they were in the past. Sustained research on livestock and human health are of paramount importance given the accelerating rate of world urbanization.}, }
@article {pmid32862805, year = {2020}, author = {Morata, N and Michaud, E and Poullaouec, MA and Devesa, J and Le Goff, M and Corvaisier, R and Renaud, PE}, title = {Climate change and diminishing seasonality in Arctic benthic processes.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {378}, number = {2181}, pages = {20190369}, pmid = {32862805}, issn = {1471-2962}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Diffusion ; *Ecosystem ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Ice Cover/chemistry ; Norway ; Oceans and Seas ; Organic Chemicals/analysis ; Oxygen/analysis ; Seasons ; Seawater/chemistry ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {The iconic picture of Arctic marine ecosystems shows an intense pulse of biological productivity around the spring bloom that is sustained while fresh organic matter (OM) is available, after which ecosystem activity declines to basal levels in autumn and winter. We investigated seasonality in benthic biogeochemical cycling at three stations in a high Arctic fjord that has recently lost much of its seasonal ice-cover. Unlike observations from other Arctic locations, we find little seasonality in sediment community respiration and bioturbation rates, although different sediment reworking modes varied through the year. Nutrient fluxes did vary, suggesting that, although OM was processed at similar rates, seasonality in its quality led to spring/summer peaks in inorganic nitrogen and silicate fluxes. These patterns correspond to published information on seasonality in vertical flux at the stations. Largely ice-free Kongsfjorden has a considerable detrital pool in soft sediments which sustain benthic communities over the year. Sources of this include macroalgae and terrestrial runoff. Climate change leading to less ice cover, higher light availability and expanded benthic habitat may lead to more detrital carbon in the system, dampening the quantitative importance of seasonal pulses of phytodetritus to seafloor communities in some areas of the Arctic. This article is part of the theme issue 'The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'.}, }
@article {pmid32861033, year = {2020}, author = {Zulfiqar, F and Hancock, JT}, title = {Hydrogen sulfide in horticulture: Emerging roles in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB}, volume = {155}, number = {}, pages = {667-675}, doi = {10.1016/j.plaphy.2020.08.010}, pmid = {32861033}, issn = {1873-2690}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*physiology ; *Horticulture ; *Hydrogen Sulfide ; Reactive Oxygen Species ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Future climate change will present many plants with environmental challenges, including extreme temperatures and drought. Hydrogen sulfide (H2S) has emerged as an important signal transmitting molecule in plants, especially important in many stress responses and it is known to regulate numerous physiological and developmental processes. Being recently suggested as a signaling molecule, research exploring the regulatory functions is continuously progressing regarding the role of H2S in plant science, agriculture and horticulture. Biosynthesis of H2S occurs in different cellular compartments from where it can freely translocate via membranes to where needed or be excluded where not required. H2S interacts with related signaling molecules which together mediate stress tolerance against a plethora of harsh conditions. The H2S induced tolerance against stresses occurs via regulation of antioxidants activities, endogenous levels of GSH, osmoregulator accumulation, cell signaling proteins, and stress-related gene expression. Overall this efficiently eliminates excessive reactive oxygen species (ROS) and maintains the intracellular redox balance. The current review summarizes the recent progress on H2S or H2S donor-mediated abiotic stress tolerance with special reference to climate change and horticulture crops, pre- and post-harvest. Elucidating the role of H2S in cell signaling pathways may open new horizons towards understanding how exogenous treatments with H2S in horticulture plants may aid in the tolerance to stress, especially as environmental conditions change, and can secure better crop yields and avoid post-harvest losses.}, }
@article {pmid32860740, year = {2020}, author = {Guo, Y and Wu, Y and Wen, B and Huang, W and Ju, K and Gao, Y and Li, S}, title = {Floods in China, COVID-19, and climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {e443-e444}, pmid = {32860740}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change/economics ; Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Disaster Planning ; *Floods/economics/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Pandemics/prevention &amp; control ; Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Risk ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, }
@article {pmid32860106, year = {2020}, author = {Stoeckli, S and Felber, R and Haye, T}, title = {Current distribution and voltinism of the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys, in Switzerland and its response to climate change using a high-resolution CLIMEX model.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {12}, pages = {2019-2032}, pmid = {32860106}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {627000612//Federal Office for Agriculture FOAG/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Heteroptera ; North America ; Switzerland ; }, abstract = {Climate change can alter the habitat suitability of invasive species and promote their establishment. The highly polyphagous brown marmorated stinkbug, Halyomorpha halys Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is native to East Asia and invasive in Europe and North America, damaging a wide variety of fruit and vegetable crops. In Switzerland, crop damage and increasing populations have been observed since 2017 and related to increasing temperatures. We studied the climatic suitability, population growth, and the number of generations under present and future climate conditions for H. halys in Switzerland, using a modified version of the bioclimatic model package CLIMEX. To address the high topographic variability in Switzerland, model simulations were based on climate data of high spatial resolution (approx. 2 km), which significantly increased their explanatory power, and identified many more climatically suitable areas in comparison to previous models. The validation of the CLIMEX model using observational records collected in a citizen science initiative between 2004 and 2019 revealed that more than 15 years after its accidental introduction, H. halys has colonised nearly all bioclimatic suitable areas in Switzerland and there is limited potential for range expansion into new areas under present climate conditions. Simulations with climate change scenarios suggest an extensive range expansion into higher altitudes, an increase in generations per year, an earlier start of H. halys activity in spring and a prolonged period for nymphs to complete development in autumn. A permanent shift from one to two generations per year and the associated population growth of H. halys may result in increasing crop damages in Switzerland. These results highlight the need for monitoring the spread and population development in the north-western part of Switzerland and higher altitudes of the valleys of the south.}, }
@article {pmid32859556, year = {2020}, author = {Nikendei, C and Bugaj, TJ and Nikendei, F and Kühl, SJ and Kühl, M}, title = {[Climate change: Causes, consequences, solutions and public health care implications].}, journal = {Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen}, volume = {156-157}, number = {}, pages = {59-67}, doi = {10.1016/j.zefq.2020.07.008}, pmid = {32859556}, issn = {2212-0289}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Germany ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global warming is a fundamental threat to human civilization. Urgent and comprehensive actions are needed to achieve the Paris Climate Convention goals. This work aims to provide a systematic overview of global warming and its linkages to public healthcare.<br><br>METHODS: In a narrative review, we outline causes, consequences, and necessary measures regarding global warming and the implications for public healthcare.<br><br>RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Closely linked to our resource behaviours and economic systems, greenhouse gas emissions play a central role in global warming. We are seeing an increase in temperature records and heat waves as well as droughts with crop losses, rising sea levels and, ultimately, effects on the human body and mind. Despite these threats, there is a gap between awareness and action. Measures are urgently needed at a political, innovative, economic and individual level. As a significant greenhouse gas emitter, the public health sector bears responsibility. Healthcare professionals are directly confronted with the impact of global warming through the treatment of people suffering from its effects; they can serve as role models in tackling it. Necessary changes in life (style) do not only involve a more conscious use of our resources, but also hold the chance of creating a new form of social solidarity.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare institutions and professionals play a significant role as emitters, practitioners, and role models in global warming.}, }
@article {pmid32858298, year = {2021}, author = {Sharifi, A}, title = {Co-benefits and synergies between urban climate change mitigation and adaptation measures: A literature review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {750}, number = {}, pages = {141642}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141642}, pmid = {32858298}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Accounting for over 70% of global CO2 emissions, cities are major contributors to climate change. Acknowledging this, urban climate change adaptation and mitigation plans are increasingly developed to make progress toward enhancing climate resilience. While there is consensus that focusing on both adaptation and mitigation is necessary for addressing climate change impacts, better understanding of their interactions is needed to efficiently maximize their potentials. This paper, first, provides a bibliographic analysis to map existing knowledge regarding adaptation-mitigation interactions. This is done using methods such as bibliographic coupling, co-citation analysis, and co-occurrence analysis. Then, drawing on the literature, this study explores two types of interactions between adaptation and mitigation measures, namely co-benefits and synergies. These interactions are explored through analyzing evidence reported in the literature on different measures related to sectors such as energy, transportation, waste, water, green infrastructure, urban planning, and governance. Results of the bibliographic analysis show that there is a lack of research in the Global South. Results of the detailed content analysis show that many measures can provide co-benefits and synergies. Measures related to green infrastructure, buildings, energy systems, and, transportation are particularly capable of providing co-benefits. In addition, it was found that appropriate levels of density, promotion of public transportation, and urban greenery are measures that are more likely to provide synergistic benefits if combined with other adaptation and/or mitigation measures. This study highlights the need for more empirical research to better understand the magnitude of synergistic benefits between different measures.}, }
@article {pmid32856759, year = {2020}, author = {Oleksyn, J and Wyka, TP and Żytkowiak, R and Zadworny, M and Mucha, J and Dering, M and Ufnalski, K and Nihlgård, B and Reich, PB}, title = {A fingerprint of climate change across pine forests of Sweden.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {1739-1746}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13587}, pmid = {32856759}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {2011/02/A/NZ9/00108//National Science Center, Poland/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forests ; *Pinus ; Sweden ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change has likely altered high-latitude forests globally, but direct evidence remains rare. Here we show that throughout a ≈1000-km transect in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in Sweden, mature trees in ≈2015 had longer needles with shorter lifetimes than did trees in ≈1915. These century-scale shifts in needle traits were detected by sampling needles at 74 sites from 2012 to 2017 along the same transect where needle traits had been assessed at 57 sites in 1914-1915. Climate warming of ≈1 °C all along the transect in the past century has driven this temporal shift in foliage traits known to be physiologically critical to growth and carbon cycling processes. These century-scale changes in Scandinavian Scots pine forests represent a fingerprint of climate change on a fundamental biological element, the leaf, with repercussions for productivity and sensitivity to future climate, which are likely to be mirrored by similar changes for evergreen conifers across the boreal biome.}, }
@article {pmid32855459, year = {2020}, author = {Khan, S and Khan, S}, title = {Adapting the curriculum on climate change.}, journal = {British dental journal}, volume = {229}, number = {4}, pages = {213}, doi = {10.1038/s41415-020-2081-x}, pmid = {32855459}, issn = {1476-5373}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Coronavirus ; Curriculum ; }, }
@article {pmid32855310, year = {2020}, author = {Fordham, DA and Jackson, ST and Brown, SC and Huntley, B and Brook, BW and Dahl-Jensen, D and Gilbert, MTP and Otto-Bliesner, BL and Svensson, A and Theodoridis, S and Wilmshurst, JM and Buettel, JC and Canteri, E and McDowell, M and Orlando, L and Pilowsky, JA and Rahbek, C and Nogues-Bravo, D}, title = {Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {369}, number = {6507}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.abc5654}, pmid = {32855310}, issn = {1095-9203}, support = {681605/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Archives ; *Biodiversity ; Climate Change/*history ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Extinction, Biological ; History, Ancient ; Paleontology ; }, abstract = {Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species' conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.}, }
@article {pmid32854885, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, Z and Xu, N and Wei, W and Zhao, N}, title = {Social inequality among elderly individuals caused by climate change: Evidence from the migratory elderly of mainland China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {272}, number = {}, pages = {111079}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111079}, pmid = {32854885}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Aged ; China ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Faced with severe and growing social inequality among elderly individuals, a more complete understanding of the interconnection between the seasonal migration of the elderly and climate change is clearly needed. This paper tries to clarify the relation between the seasonal migration of the elderly and climate change from a multidimensional perspective. Our study adds to the research on population aging against the background of climate change. This study shows that climate change has a significant impact on regional population aging and that there are significant internal differences between the distribution and scale of the migratory elderly stemming from unequal environmental conditions. Advanced economic conditions and relatively comfortable environments have put some pressure on social endowment services in the three provinces of Northeast China, especially Liaoning Province. With their complex migration mechanism, the fate of the elderly in mainland China is closely intertwined with climatic factors, individual and socioeconomic conditions, traditional cultural backgrounds, etc. A comparatively advanced economy, well-developed endowment resources, and a comfortable environment will help in the development of regional aging resources. Regional inequality and the pursuit of a meaningful life have created different categories of migratory elderly.}, }
@article {pmid32854874, year = {2020}, author = {Mahmood, F and Khokhar, MF and Mahmood, Z}, title = {Examining the relationship of tropospheric ozone and climate change on crop productivity using the multivariate panel data techniques.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {272}, number = {}, pages = {111024}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111024}, pmid = {32854874}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; India ; Ozone/*analysis ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Home to one-fourth of the world's population and ranked amongst the fastest growing economies, the South Asian countries are marred with the predicament of inexorable pollution. Amidst the growing pollutants, ground-level ozone has become an important component in understanding health, and productivity of agricultural crops. In this regard spatio-temporal analysis of tropospheric ozone for wheat, rice and cotton crops was carried out. Followed-up with a multivariate regression model; establishing a statistical relationship between tropospheric ozone (TO) and crop productivity. The results indicate that predominantly ozone is increasing, with a significant trend visible in all crop growing seasons. Observations indicate higher concentrations of TO in the rice &amp; cotton growing seasons, with a seasonal average of 68 ppb, compared to wheat growing season (55 ppb). Regression results specify that with an increase of 1% in tropospheric ozone concentration within the study area; crop productivity decreases for cotton (-4.0%), rice (-2.3%), and wheat (-0.7%). Furthermore, with the presence of the dominant tropospheric ozone in the regression model, the temperature's impact on productivity becomes statistically inconsequential.}, }
@article {pmid32853298, year = {2020}, author = {Garrett, TJ and Grasselli, M and Keen, S}, title = {Past world economic production constrains current energy demands: Persistent scaling with implications for economic growth and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {e0237672}, pmid = {32853298}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Economic Development/*trends ; Energy-Generating Resources/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Models, Econometric ; }, abstract = {Climate change has become intertwined with the global economy. Here, we describe the contribution of inertia to future trends. Drawing from thermodynamic principles, and using 38 years of available statistics between 1980 to 2017, we find a constant scaling between current rates of world primary energy consumption [Formula: see text] and the historical time integral W of past world inflation-adjusted economic production Y, or [Formula: see text]. In each year, over a period during which both [Formula: see text] and W more than doubled, the ratio of the two remained nearly unchanged, that is [Formula: see text] Gigawatts per trillion 2010 US dollars. What this near constant implies is that current growth trends in energy consumption, population, and standard of living, perhaps counterintuitively, are determined by past innovations that have improved the economic production efficiency, or enabled use of less energy to transform raw materials into the makeup of civilization. Current observed growth rates agree well with predictions derived from available historical data. Future efforts to stabilize carbon dioxide emissions are likely also to be constrained by the contributions of past innovation to growth. Assuming no further efficiency gains, options look limited to rapid decarbonization of energy consumption through sustained implementation of at least one Gigawatt of renewable or nuclear power capacity per day. Alternatively, with continued reliance on fossil fuels, civilization could shift to a steady-state economy, one that devotes economic production exclusively to maintining ongoing metabolic needs rather than to material expansion. Even if such actions could be achieved immediately, energy consumption would continue at its current level, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations would only begin to balance natural sinks at concentrations exceeding 500 ppmv.}, }
@article {pmid33902718, year = {2019}, author = {Voříšková, J and Elberling, B and Priemé, A}, title = {Fast response of fungal and prokaryotic communities to climate change manipulation in two contrasting tundra soils.}, journal = {Environmental microbiome}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {6}, pmid = {33902718}, issn = {2524-6372}, support = {5298507//Danish Geocenter Grant/ ; CENPERM DNRF100//Danish National Research Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate models predict substantial changes in temperature and precipitation patterns across Arctic regions, including increased winter precipitation as snow in the near future. Soil microorganisms are considered key players in organic matter decomposition and regulation of biogeochemical cycles. However, current knowledge regarding their response to future climate changes is limited. Here, we explore the short-term effect of increased snow cover on soil fungal, bacterial and archaeal communities in two tundra sites with contrasting water regimes in Greenland. In order to assess seasonal variation of microbial communities, we collected soil samples four times during the plant-growing season.<br><br>RESULTS: The analysis revealed that soil microbial communities from two tundra sites differed from each other due to contrasting soil chemical properties. Fungal communities showed higher richness at the dry site whereas richness of prokaryotes was higher at the wet tundra site. We demonstrated that fungal and bacterial communities at both sites were significantly affected by short-term increased snow cover manipulation. Our results showed that fungal community composition was more affected by deeper snow cover compared to prokaryotes. The fungal communities showed changes in both taxonomic and ecological groups in response to climate manipulation. However, the changes were not pronounced at all sampling times which points to the need of multiple sampling in ecosystems where environmental factors show seasonal variation. Further, we showed that effects of increased snow cover were manifested after snow had melted.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated rapid response of soil fungal and bacterial communities to short-term climate manipulation simulating increased winter precipitation at two tundra sites. In particular, we provide evidence that fungal community composition was more affected by increased snow cover compared to prokaryotes indicating fast adaptability to changing environmental conditions. Since fungi are considered the main decomposers of complex organic matter in terrestrial ecosystems, the stronger response of fungal communities may have implications for organic matter turnover in tundra soils under future climate.}, }
@article {pmid33869383, year = {2019}, author = {Nash, N and Capstick, S and Whitmarsh, L and Chaudhary, I and Manandhar, R}, title = {Perceptions of Local Environmental Issues and the Relevance of Climate Change in Nepal's Terai: Perspectives From Two Communities.}, journal = {Frontiers in sociology}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {60}, pmid = {33869383}, issn = {2297-7775}, abstract = {The direct and indirect impacts of global climate change entail serious consequences for global biophysical and social systems, including the health, well-being and sustainability of communities. These impacts are especially serious for vulnerable groups in economically developing societies. While climate change is a global phenomenon, it is at the local level that impacts are most felt, and from where responses to climate change are enacted. It is increasingly urgent that communities possess the capacity to respond to climate change, now and in the future. Community representations of climate-relevant issues are critical to underpinning responses. Environmental representations do not directly reflect actual physical conditions but are interpreted through social and cultural layers of understanding that shape environmental issues. This paper investigates environmental and climate-relevant perceptions within two communities in the Terai region of Nepal; the city of Bharatpur and the village of Kumroj in Chitwan Province. Following mixed findings on levels of climate change awareness in Nepal, we set out to explore perspectives on the environment and climate change awareness by conducting 30 qualitative interviews with local people. The study found that issues linked to sanitation and cleanliness were most important in both communities, while reports of temperature and weather changes were less common and typically linked to local causes rather than climate change. Imagined futures were also closely related to current environmental issues affecting communities and did not discuss climate change, though temperature and weather changes were anticipated. However, when talk of climate change was deliberately elicited, participants displayed their awareness, though this was rarely linked to local conditions. We conclude that, in light of other pressing local issues, climate change is yet to penetrate the environmental representations of some communities and there is a need to address the disconnect between local issues and global climate change. Making climate change relevant at the local level by connecting to salient local issues and co-benefits comprises an important step in bridging the gap between more global awareness and its relevance more locally, particularly for communities at risk.}, }
@article {pmid33305922, year = {2019}, author = {Martin, J}, title = {[Climate change and public health: Urgent need for collective and individual action].}, journal = {Sante publique (Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy, France)}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {191-194}, doi = {10.3917/spub.192.0191}, pmid = {33305922}, issn = {0995-3914}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid33267285, year = {2019}, author = {Kariyawasam, CS and Kumar, L and Ratnayake, SS}, title = {Invasive Plant Species Establishment and Range Dynamics in Sri Lanka under Climate Change.}, journal = {Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {21}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {33267285}, issn = {1099-4300}, abstract = {Plant invasion has been widely recognized as an agent of global change that has the potential to have severe impacts under climate change. The challenges posed by invasive alien plant species (IAPS) on biodiversity and ecosystem stability is growing and not adequately studied, especially in developing countries. Defining climate suitability for multiple invasive plants establishment is important for early and strategic interventions to control and manage plant invasions. We modeled priority IAPS in Sri Lanka to identify the areas of greatest climatic suitability for their establishment and observed how these areas could be altered under projected climate change. We used Maximum Entropy method to model 14 nationally significant IAPS under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for 2050 and 2070. The combined climate suitability map produced by summing up climatic suitability of 14 IAPS was further classified into five classes in ArcMap as very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. South and west parts of Sri Lanka are projected to have potentially higher climatic suitability for a larger number of IAPS. We observed suitable area changes (gains and losses) in all five classes of which two were significant enough to make an overall negative impact i.e., (i) contraction of the very low class and (ii) expansion of the moderate class. Both these changes trigger the potential risk from IAPS in Sri Lanka in the future.}, }
@article {pmid33523155, year = {2019}, author = {Millington, R and Cox, PM and Moore, JR and Yvon-Durocher, G}, title = {Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming.}, journal = {Emerging topics in life sciences}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {221-231}, doi = {10.1042/ETLS20180113}, pmid = {33523155}, issn = {2397-8554}, abstract = {We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical 'trait diffusion' model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).}, }
@article {pmid33523153, year = {2019}, author = {Heneghan, RF and Hatton, IA and Galbraith, ED}, title = {Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems through the lens of the size spectrum.}, journal = {Emerging topics in life sciences}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {233-243}, pmid = {33523153}, issn = {2397-8554}, abstract = {Climate change is a complex global issue that is driving countless shifts in the structure and function of marine ecosystems. To better understand these shifts, many processes need to be considered, yet they are often approached from incompatible perspectives. This article reviews one relatively simple, integrated perspective: the abundance-size spectrum. We introduce the topic with a brief review of some of the ways climate change is expected to impact the marine ecosystem according to complex numerical models while acknowledging the limits to understanding posed by complex models. We then review how the size spectrum offers a simple conceptual alternative, given its regular power law size-frequency distribution when viewed on sufficiently broad scales. We further explore how anticipated physical aspects of climate change might manifest themselves through changes in the elevation, slope and regularity of the size spectrum, exposing mechanistic questions about integrated ecosystem structure, as well as how organism physiology and ecological interactions respond to multiple climatic stressors. Despite its application by ecosystem modellers and fisheries scientists, the size spectrum perspective is not widely used as a tool for monitoring ecosystem adaptation to climate change, providing a major opportunity for further research.}, }
@article {pmid33523152, year = {2019}, author = {Crabbe, MJC}, title = {Adapting to extreme environments: can coral reefs adapt to climate change?.}, journal = {Emerging topics in life sciences}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {183-195}, doi = {10.1042/ETLS20180088}, pmid = {33523152}, issn = {2397-8554}, abstract = {Reef-building corals throughout the world have an annual value of tens of billions of dollars, yet they are being degraded at an increasing rate by many anthropogenic and environmental factors. Despite this, some reefs show resilience to such extreme environmental changes. This review shows how techniques in computational modelling, genetics, and transcriptomics are being used to unravel the complexity of coral reef ecosystems, to try and understand if they can adapt to new and extreme environments. Considering the ambitious climate targets of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C, with aspirations of even 1.5°C, questions arise on how to achieve this. Geoengineering may be necessary if other avenues fail, although global governance issues need to play a key role. Development of large and effective coral refugia and marine protected areas is necessary if we are not to lose this vital resource for us all.}, }
@article {pmid33523151, year = {2019}, author = {Andriamifidy, RF and Tjaden, NB and Beierkuhnlein, C and Thomas, SM}, title = {Do we know how mosquito disease vectors will respond to climate change?.}, journal = {Emerging topics in life sciences}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {115-132}, doi = {10.1042/ETLS20180125}, pmid = {33523151}, issn = {2397-8554}, abstract = {Mosquito-borne diseases are on the rise globally. Besides invasion processes and the increasing connectivity between distant regions through the trade of goods and human mobility, climate change is seen as an important driver for changing the likelihood of occurrence of vectors and diseases, respectively. Ectothermic insects respond directly to thermal conditions and thus we can expect them to follow climatic trends. However, a variety of species and different stages in their life cycles need to be considered. Here, we review the current literature in this field and disentangle the state of knowledge and the challenges and open questions for future research. The integration of diurnal temperature ranges in prospective experimental studies will strongly improve the knowledge of mosquitoes' ecology and mosquito-borne disease transmission for temperate regions in particular. In addition, invasive mosquitoes are known to rapidly adapt to the climatic conditions, but the underlying processes are not yet fully understood.}, }
@article {pmid33523148, year = {2019}, author = {Maslin, MA}, title = {Climate change: essential knowledge for developing holistic solutions to our climate crisis.}, journal = {Emerging topics in life sciences}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {245-256}, doi = {10.1042/ETLS20180116}, pmid = {33523148}, issn = {2397-8554}, abstract = {Understanding anthropogenic climate change is essential for anyone working in the life sciences. Firstly because climate change has already started to impact the Earth biosphere and human health and these changes need to be documented and acknowledged. Secondly, many of the solutions to climate change, both mitigation and adaptation, will be through the life sciences, everything from massive reforestation and sustainable agriculture to preventing the spread of disease and protecting individual human health. Anthropogenic climate change is, therefore, one of the defining challenges of the 21st century, along with poverty alleviation, environmental degradation and global security. Climate change is no longer just a scientific concern but encompasses economics, sociology, geopolitics, national and local politics, law and health to name a few. Hence, to understand climate change fully then not only does one have to review the science but also the politics and geopolitics, which have created the issue and can provide the solutions. Climate change ultimately makes us examine the whole basis of modern society and ultimately asks questions about humanity's relationship with the rest of the planet.}, }
@article {pmid33523147, year = {2019}, author = {Ferguson, JN}, title = {Climate change and abiotic stress mechanisms in plants.}, journal = {Emerging topics in life sciences}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {165-181}, doi = {10.1042/ETLS20180105}, pmid = {33523147}, issn = {2397-8554}, abstract = {Predicted global climatic change will perturb the productivity of our most valuable crops as well as detrimentally impact ecological fitness. The most important aspects of climate change with respect to these effects relate to water availability and heat stress. Over multiple decades, the plant research community has amassed a highly comprehensive understanding of the physiological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance of productivity in response to drought, flooding, and heat stress. Consequently, the foundations necessary to begin the development of elite crop varieties that are primed for climate change are in place. To meet the food and fuel security concerns of a growing population, it is vital that biotechnological and breeding efforts to harness these mechanisms are accelerated in the coming decade. Despite this, those concerned with crop improvement must approach such efforts with caution and ensure that potentially harnessed mechanisms are viable under the context of a dynamically changing environment.}, }
@article {pmid33523146, year = {2019}, author = {Rocklöv, J and Tozan, Y}, title = {Climate change and the rising infectiousness of dengue.}, journal = {Emerging topics in life sciences}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {133-142}, pmid = {33523146}, issn = {2397-8554}, abstract = {The disease burden of dengue has been steadily rising over the last half-century due to a multitude of factors, including global trade and travel, urbanization, population growth, and climate variability and change, that facilitate conductive conditions for the proliferation of dengue vectors and viruses. This review describes how climate, specifically temperature, affects the vectors' ability to cause and sustain outbreaks, and how the infectiousness of dengue is influenced by climatic change. The review is focused on the core concepts and frameworks derived in the area of epidemiology of mosquito-borne diseases and outlines the sensitivity of vectorial capacity and vector-to-human transmission on climatic conditions. It further reviews studies linking mathematical or statistical models of disease transmission to scenarios of projected climate change and provides recommendations for future research directions.}, }
@article {pmid33523145, year = {2019}, author = {Osborn, D}, title = {The breadth of climate change impacts on biological systems.}, journal = {Emerging topics in life sciences}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {107-113}, doi = {10.1042/ETLS20180114}, pmid = {33523145}, issn = {2397-8554}, abstract = {Human activity is driving climate change. This is affecting and will affect many aspects of life on earth. The breadth of its impacts is very wide and covers human, animal and plant health, and also the planet's biodiversity and the services that deliver benefits to people from natural capital. Finding solutions to the challenge of climate change will require multidisciplinary action in which the life sciences have a major role to play as this issue of Emerging Topics in Life Sciences indicates. More process and mechanistic knowledge could underpin solutions or even provide early warning of impacts. Any solutions will need to be developed and deployed in ways that gain and maintain public support.}, }
@article {pmid33523144, year = {2019}, author = {Paz, S}, title = {Effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases: an updated focus on West Nile virus in humans.}, journal = {Emerging topics in life sciences}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {143-152}, doi = {10.1042/ETLS20180124}, pmid = {33523144}, issn = {2397-8554}, abstract = {One of the main impacts of climate change on health is the influence on vector-borne diseases (VBDs). During the last few years, yearly outbreaks of the West Nile virus (WNV) have occurred in many locations, providing evidence of ongoing transmission. Currently, it is the most widely distributed arbovirus in the world. Increases in ambient temperature have impacts on WNV transmission. Indeed, clear associations were found between warm conditions and WNV outbreaks in various areas. The impact of changes in rainfall patterns on the incidence of the disease is influenced by the amount of precipitation (increased rainfall, floods or droughts), depending on the local conditions and the differences in the ecology and sensitivity of the species of mosquito. Predictions indicate that for WNV, increased warming will result in latitudinal and altitudinal expansions of regions climatically suitable for transmission, particularly along the current edges of its transmission areas. Extension of the transmission season is also predicted. As models show that the current climate change trends are expected to continue, it is important to reinforce WNV control efforts and increase the resilience of population health. For a better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should consider the impacts of the changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid33362922, year = {2019}, author = {Jones, MD and Abu-Jaber, N and AlShdaifat, A and Baird, D and Cook, BI and Cuthbert, MO and Dean, JR and Djamali, M and Eastwood, W and Fleitmann, D and Haywood, A and Kwiecien, O and Larsen, J and Maher, LA and Metcalfe, SE and Parker, A and Petrie, CA and Primmer, N and Richter, T and Roberts, N and Roe, J and Tindall, JC and Ünal-İmer, E and Weeks, L}, title = {20,000 years of societal vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in southwest Asia.}, journal = {WIREs. Water}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {e1330}, pmid = {33362922}, issn = {2049-1948}, abstract = {The Fertile Crescent, its hilly flanks and surrounding drylands has been a critical region for studying how climate has influenced societal change, and this review focuses on the region over the last 20,000 years. The complex social, economic, and environmental landscapes in the region today are not new phenomena and understanding their interactions requires a nuanced, multidisciplinary understanding of the past. This review builds on a history of collaboration between the social and natural palaeoscience disciplines. We provide a multidisciplinary, multiscalar perspective on the relevance of past climate, environmental, and archaeological research in assessing present day vulnerabilities and risks for the populations of southwest Asia. We discuss the complexity of palaeoclimatic data interpretation, particularly in relation to hydrology, and provide an overview of key time periods of palaeoclimatic interest. We discuss the critical role that vegetation plays in the human-climate-environment nexus and discuss the implications of the available palaeoclimate and archaeological data, and their interpretation, for palaeonarratives of the region, both climatically and socially. We also provide an overview of how modelling can improve our understanding of past climate impacts and associated change in risk to societies. We conclude by looking to future work, and identify themes of "scale" and "seasonality" as still requiring further focus. We suggest that by appreciating a given locale's place in the regional hydroscape, be it an archaeological site or palaeoenvironmental archive, more robust links to climate can be made where appropriate and interpretations drawn will demand the resolution of factors acting across multiple scales. This article is categorized under:Human Water > Water as Imagined and RepresentedScience of Water > Water and Environmental ChangeWater and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid32983410, year = {2019}, author = {Ridde, V and Benmarhnia, T and Bonnet, E and Bottger, C and Cloos, P and Dagenais, C and De Allegri, M and Nebot, A and Queuille, L and Sarker, M}, title = {Climate change, migration and health systems resilience: Need for interdisciplinary research.}, journal = {F1000Research}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {22}, pmid = {32983410}, issn = {2046-1402}, abstract = {Climate change is one of today's major challenges, and among the causes of population movement and international migration. Climate migrants impact health systems and how their ability to respond and adapt to their needs and patterns. To date, the resilience of health systems in the context of climate change has barely been explored. The purpose of this article is to show the importance of studying the relationship between climate change, migration, and the resilience of health systems from an interdisciplinary perspective. Resilience is an old concept, notably in the field of psychology, and is increasingly applied to the study of health systems. Yet, no research has analysed the resilience of health systems in the context of climate change. While universal health coverage is a major international goal, little research to date focused on the existing links between climate, migration, health systems and resilience. We propose an interdisciplinary approach relying on the concept of health system resilience to study adaptive and transformative strategies to articulate climate change, migration and health systems.}, }
@article {pmid33344151, year = {2019}, author = {Pradel, W and Gatto, M and Hareau, G and Pandey, SK and Bhardway, V}, title = {Adoption of potato varieties and their role for climate change adaptation in India.}, journal = {Climate risk management}, volume = {23}, number = {}, pages = {114-123}, pmid = {33344151}, issn = {2212-0963}, abstract = {Adoption of improved varieties is an important strategy to adapt to the negative implication associated with climate change and variability. However, incomplete data on varietal release and adoption is often the reality in many countries hindering informed decision-making on breeding and varietal dissemination strategies to effectively adapt to climate change. In taking the example of potatoes in India, we analyze the extent to which the potato sector is resilient to climate change. We do so by comparing state-level climate change projections with adoption of high resistant and tolerant potato varieties to major abiotic and biotic stresses. Release and adoption data was collected in 2016 in six expert elicitation workshops conducted with 130 experts from the potato value chain in Bihar, Gujarat, Karnataka, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. We found that from the total of 81 releases, 45 improved varieties are adopted in India and that in each state high resistant and tolerant varieties are cultivated providing some degree of varietal resilience. Early maturity has been the most important and heat tolerance is the least important trait. Comparing climate projections with adoption rates of high resistant and tolerant varieties, we found that Gujarat is relatively most resilient. In other states we found some mismatches between climate projections and adopted specific varietal traits. Our results allow policy-makers and breeders to better prioritize investments into breeding for specific traits and dissemination strategies.}, }
@article {pmid33266729, year = {2018}, author = {Ghanghermeh, A and Roshan, G and Orosa, JA and Costa, &#xc1;M}, title = {Analysis and Comparison of Spatial-Temporal Entropy Variability of Tehran City Microclimate Based on Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {33266729}, issn = {1099-4300}, abstract = {Urban microclimate patterns can play a great role for the allocation and management of cooling and heating energy sources, urban design and architecture, and urban heat island control. Therefore, the present study intends to investigate the variability of spatial and temporal entropy of the Effective Temperature index (ET) for the two basic periods (1971-2010) and the future (2011-2050) in Tehran to determine how the variability degree of the entropy values of the abovementioned bioclimatic would be, based on global warming and future climate change. ArcGIS software and geostatistical methods were used to show the Spatial and Temporal variations of the microclimate pattern in Tehran. However, due to global warming the temperature difference between the different areas of the study has declined, which is believed to reduce the abnormalities and more orderly between the data spatially and over time. It is observed that the lowest values of the Shannon entropy occurred in the last two decades, from 2030 to 2040, and the other in 2040-2050. Because, based on global warming, dominant areas have increased temperature, and the difference in temperature is reduced daily and the temperature difference between the zones of different areas is lower. The results of this study show a decrease in the coefficient of the Shannon entropy of effective temperature for future decades in Tehran. This can be due to the reduction of temperature differences between different regions. However, based on the urban-climate perspective, there is no positive view of this process. Because reducing the urban temperature difference means reducing the local pressure difference as well as reducing local winds. This is a factor that can effective, though limited, in the movement of stagnant urban air and reduction of thermal budget and thermal stress of the city.}, }
@article {pmid33154611, year = {2018}, author = {Ruane, AC and Antle, J and Elliott, J and Folberth, C and Hoogenboom, G and Mason-D'Croz, D and Müller, C and Porter, C and Phillips, MM and Raymundo, RM and Sands, R and Valdivia, RO and White, JW and Wiebe, K and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments.}, journal = {Climate research}, volume = {76}, number = {1}, pages = {17-39}, pmid = {33154611}, issn = {1616-1572}, support = {/SCMD-EarthScienceSystem/Science Earth Science System NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {This study presents results of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions. This first CGRA application provides multi-discipline, multi-scale, and multi-model perspectives to elucidate major challenges for the agricultural sector caused by direct biophysical impacts of climate changes as well as ramifications of associated mitigation strategies. Agriculture in both target climate stabilizations is characterized by differential impacts across regions and farming systems, with tropical maize Zea mays experiencing the largest losses, while soy Glycine max mostly benefits. The result is upward pressure on prices and area expansion for maize and wheat Triticum aestivum, while soy prices and area decline (results for rice Oryza sativa are mixed). An example global mitigation strategy encouraging bioenergy expansion is more disruptive to land use and crop prices than the climate change impacts alone, even in the +2.0°C scenario which has a larger climate signal and lower mitigation requirement than the +1.5°C scenario. Coordinated assessments reveal that direct biophysical and economic impacts can be substantially larger for regional farming systems than global production changes. Regional farmers can buffer negative effects or take advantage of new opportunities via mitigation incentives and farm management technologies. Primary uncertainties in the CGRA framework include the extent of CO2 benefits for diverse agricultural systems in crop models, as simulations without CO2 benefits show widespread production losses that raise prices and expand agricultural area.}, }
@article {pmid33001060, year = {2016}, author = {Schwindt, DM and Bocinsky, RK and Ortman, S and Glowacki, DM and Varien, MD and Kohler, TA}, title = {THE SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL MESA VERDE REGION.}, journal = {American antiquity}, volume = {81}, number = {1}, pages = {74-96}, pmid = {33001060}, issn = {0002-7316}, support = {P2C HD066613/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {The consequences of climate change vary over space and time. Effective studies of human responses to climatically induced environmental change must therefore sample the environmental diversity experienced by specific societies. We reconstruct population histories from A.D. 600 to 1280 in six environmentally distinct portions of the central Mesa Verde region in southwestern Colorado, relating these to climate-driven changes in agricultural potential. In all but one subregion, increases in maize-niche size led to increases in population size. Maize-niche size is also positively correlated with regional estimates of birth rates. High birth rates continued to accompany high population levels even as productive conditions declined in the A.D. 1200s. We reconstruct prominent imbalances between the maize-niche size and population densities in two subregions from A.D. 1140 to 1180 and from A.D. 1225-1260. We propose that human responses in those subregions, beginning by the mid-A.D. 1200s, contributed to violence and social collapse across the entire society. Our findings are relevant to discussions of how climate change will affect contemporary societies.}, }
@article {pmid33873537, year = {2003}, author = {Ackerly, D}, title = {Canopy gaps to climate change - extreme events, ecology and evolution.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {160}, number = {1}, pages = {2-4}, pmid = {33873537}, issn = {1469-8137}, }
@article {pmid33873606, year = {2003}, author = {Runion, GB}, title = {Climate change and plant pathosystems - future disease prevention starts here.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {159}, number = {3}, pages = {531-533}, doi = {10.1046/j.1469-8137.2003.00868.x}, pmid = {33873606}, issn = {1469-8137}, }
@article {pmid33873342, year = {2001}, author = {Saxe, H and Cannell, MGR and Johnsen, &#xd8; and Ryan, MG and Vourlitis, G}, title = {Tree and forest functioning in response to global warming.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {149}, number = {3}, pages = {369-399}, doi = {10.1046/j.1469-8137.2001.00057.x}, pmid = {33873342}, issn = {1469-8137}, abstract = {Although trees have responded to global warming in the past - to temperatures higher than they are now - the rate of change predicted in the 21st century is likely to be unprecedented. Greenhouse gas emissions could cause a 3-6°C increase in mean land surface temperature at high and temperate latitudes. Despite this, few experiments have isolated the effects of temperature for this scenario on trees and forests. This review focuses on tree and forest responses at boreal and temperate latitudes, ranging from the cellular to the ecosystem level. Adaptation to varying temperatures revolves around the trade-off between utilizing the full growing season and minimizing frost damage through proper timing of hardening in autumn and dehardening in spring. But the evolutionary change in these traits must be sufficiently rapid to compensate for the temperature changes. Many species have a positive response to increased temperature - but how close are we to the optima? Management is critical for a positive response of forest growth to a warmer climate, and selection of the best species for the new conditions will be of vital importance. Contents Summary 369 I. Introduction 370 II. Photosynthesis and respiration 370 III. Soil organic matter decomposition and mineralization 373 IV. Phenology and frost hardiness 376 V. Whole tree experimental responses to warming 380 VI. Changes in species distribution at warmer temperatures 381 VII. Adaptation and evolution 383 VIII. Ecosystem level responses to warming 387 Acknowledgements 390 References 390 Appendix I. Temperature response functions 399.}, }
@article {pmid32851791, year = {2020}, author = {Metz, J and Lampei, C and Bäumler, L and Bocherens, H and Dittberner, H and Henneberg, L and de Meaux, J and Tielbörger, K}, title = {Rapid adaptive evolution to drought in a subset of plant traits in a large-scale climate change experiment.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {23}, number = {11}, pages = {1643-1653}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13596}, pmid = {32851791}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {ME 2742/6-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; TI338/11-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; TI338/11-2//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; //Bundesministerium f&#xfc;r Bildung und Forschung/ ; INST 211/575-1//Westf&#xe4;lische Wilhelms-Universit&#xe4;t M&#xfc;nster/ ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Rapid evolution of traits and of plasticity may enable adaptation to climate change, yet solid experimental evidence under natural conditions is scarce. Here, we imposed rainfall manipulations (+30%, control, -30%) for 10 years on entire natural plant communities in two Eastern Mediterranean sites. Additional sites along a natural rainfall gradient and selection analyses in a greenhouse assessed whether potential responses were adaptive. In both sites, our annual target species Biscutella didyma consistently evolved earlier phenology and higher reproductive allocation under drought. Multiple arguments suggest that this response was adaptive: it aligned with theory, corresponding trait shifts along the natural rainfall gradient, and selection analyses under differential watering in the greenhouse. However, another seven candidate traits did not evolve, and there was little support for evolution of plasticity. Our results provide compelling evidence for rapid adaptive evolution under climate change. Yet, several non-evolving traits may indicate potential constraints to full adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid32848216, year = {2020}, author = {Bassis, JN}, title = {Crevasse analysis reveals vulnerability of ice shelves to global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {584}, number = {7822}, pages = {527-528}, pmid = {32848216}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Ice Cover ; }, }
@article {pmid32845381, year = {2022}, author = {Clemens, V and von Hirschhausen, E and Fegert, JM}, title = {Report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change: implications for the mental health policy of children and adolescents in Europe-a scoping review.}, journal = {European child &amp; adolescent psychiatry}, volume = {31}, number = {5}, pages = {701-713}, pmid = {32845381}, issn = {1435-165X}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a worldwide challenge. Its consequences do encompass severe threats not only for the existence and somatic health, but also for the mental health of children and adolescents. Mental health can be impaired by three types of consequences. Direct consequences of climate change, such as natural disasters and indirect consequences, such as loss of land, flight and migration, exposure to violence, change of social, ecological, economic or cultural environment. Moreover, the increasing awareness of the existential dimension of climate change in children and adolescents can influence their well-being or challenge their mental health. Consequences of climate change for somatic health may interact with mental health or have psychological sequelae in children and adolescents. Based on the estimates by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we have summarized current data on these differential pathways as to how climate change affects the mental health of children worldwide through selective literature research on Pubmed. Mental health sequelae of direct and indirect consequences of climate change, increased awareness and physical health problems caused by climate change are presented. We give insights into special vulnerabilities of children and adolescents and identify high-risk groups. As the "Fridays for Future" movement has been initiated in northern Europe, we will discuss these results with a focus on children and adolescents in Europe. The results indicate that climate change is a serious threat to children and adolescent mental health. Children´s rights, mental health and climate change should not continue to be seen as separate points; instead, they need to be brought together to address this major challenge determining the future of our children and their descendants.}, }
@article {pmid32841861, year = {2020}, author = {Ciampalini, R and Constantine, JA and Walker-Springett, KJ and Hales, TC and Ormerod, SJ and Hall, IR}, title = {Modelling soil erosion responses to climate change in three catchments of Great Britain.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {749}, number = {}, pages = {141657}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141657}, pmid = {32841861}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Simulations of 21st century climate change for Great Britain predict increased seasonal precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss by increasing surface runoff. Land use and different vegetation cover can respond differently to this scenario, mitigating or enhancing soil erosion. Here, by means of a sensitivity analysis of the PESERA soil erosion model, we test the potential for climate and vegetation to impact soil loss by surface-runoff to three differentiated British catchments. First, to understand general behaviours, we modelled soil erosion adopting regular increments for rainfall and temperature from the baseline values (1961-1990). Then, we tested future climate scenarios adopting projections from UKCP09 (UK Climate Projections) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) on a defined medium CO2 emissions scenario, SRES-A1B (Nakicenovic et al., 2000), at the horizons 2010-39, 2040-69 and 2070-99. Our results indicate that the model reacts to the changes of the climatic parameters and the three catchments respond differently depending on their land use arrangement. Increases in rainfall produce a rise in soil erosion while higher temperatures tend to lower the process because of the mitigating action of the vegetation. Even under a significantly wetter climate, warmer air temperatures can limit soil erosion by enhancing primary productivity and in turn improving leaf interception, infiltration-capacity, and reducing soil erodibility. Consequently, for specific land uses, the increase in air temperature associated with climate change can modify the rainfall thresholds to generate soil loss, and soil erosion rates could decline by up to about 33% from 2070 to 2099. We deduce that enhanced primary productivity due to climate change can introduce a negative-feedback mechanism limiting soil loss by surface runoff as vegetation-induced impacts on soil hydrology and erodibility offset the effects of increased precipitation. The expansion of permanent vegetation cover could provide an adaptation strategy to reduce climate-driven soil loss.}, }
@article {pmid32841638, year = {2020}, author = {Peng, W and Ma, NL and Zhang, D and Zhou, Q and Yue, X and Khoo, SC and Yang, H and Guan, R and Chen, H and Zhang, X and Wang, Y and Wei, Z and Suo, C and Peng, Y and Yang, Y and Lam, SS and Sonne, C}, title = {A review of historical and recent locust outbreaks: Links to global warming, food security and mitigation strategies.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {191}, number = {}, pages = {110046}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.110046}, pmid = {32841638}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Animals ; Disease Outbreaks ; Ecosystem ; Food Security ; Global Warming ; *Grasshoppers ; Humans ; India ; Kenya ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {Locusts differ from ordinary grasshoppers in their ability to swarm over long distances and are among the oldest migratory pests. The ecology and biology of locusts make them among the most devastating pests worldwide and hence the calls for actions to prevent the next outbreaks. The most destructive of all locust species is the desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria). Here, we review the current locust epidemic 2020 outbreak and its causes and prevention including the green technologies that may provide a reference for future directions of locust control and food security. Massive locust outbreaks threaten the terrestrial environments and crop production in around 100 countries of which Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya are the most affected. Six large locust outbreaks are reported for the period from 1912 to 1989 all being closely related to long-term droughts and warm winters coupled with occurrence of high precipitation in spring and summer. The outbreaks in East Africa, India and Pakistan are the most pronounced with locusts migrating more than 150 km/day during which the locusts consume food equivalent to their own body weight on a daily basis. The plague heavily affects the agricultural sectors, which is the foundation of national economies and social stability. Global warming is likely the main cause of locust plague outbreak in recent decades driving egg spawning of up to 2-400,000 eggs per square meter. Biological control techniques such as microorganisms, insects and birds help to reduce the outbreaks while reducing ecosystem and agricultural impacts. In addition, green technologies such as light and sound stimulation seem to work, however, these are challenging and need further technological development incorporating remote sensing and modelling before they are applicable on large-scales. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the 2020 locust outbreak is the worst in 70 years probably triggered by climate change, hurricanes and heavy rain and has affected a total of 70,000 ha in Somalia and Ethiopia. There is a need for shifting towards soybean, rape, and watermelon which seems to help to prevent locust outbreaks and obtain food security. Furthermore, locusts have a very high protein content and is an excellent protein source for meat production and as an alternative human protein source, which should be used to mitigate food security. In addition, forestation of arable land improves local climate conditions towards less precipitation and lower temperatures while simultaneously attracting a larger number of birds thereby increasing the locust predation rates.}, }
@article {pmid32839693, year = {2020}, author = {Norouzi, N and Zarazua de Rubens, G and Choupanpiesheh, S and Enevoldsen, P}, title = {When pandemics impact economies and climate change: Exploring the impacts of COVID-19 on oil and electricity demand in China.}, journal = {Energy research &amp; social science}, volume = {68}, number = {}, pages = {101654}, pmid = {32839693}, issn = {2214-6296}, abstract = {Despite all the scientific and technological developments in the past one hundred years, biologic issues such as pandemics are a constant threat to society. While one of the aspects of a pandemic is the loss of human life, the outbreak has multi-dimensional impacts across regional and global societies. In this paper, a comparative regressive and neural network model is developed to analyze the impacts of COVID-19 (coronavirus) on the electricity and petroleum demand in China. The environmental analysis shows that the epidemic severeness significantly affects the electricity and the petroleum demand, both directly and indirectly. The outputs of the model stated that the elasticity of petroleum and electricity demand toward the population of the infected people is -0.1% and -0.65%, respectively. The mentioned results show that pandemic status has a significant impact on energy demand, and also its impacts can be tracked into every corner of human society.}, }
@article {pmid32839499, year = {2020}, author = {Khan, NA and Gao, Q and Abid, M}, title = {Public institutions' capacities regarding climate change adaptation and risk management support in agriculture: the case of Punjab Province, Pakistan.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {14111}, pmid = {32839499}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Public institutions could play an important role in building agricultural resilience to climate change by providing information and technology support to farmers. This study takes the case of Pakistan to investigate the perspective and capacities of public institutions as well as to identify gaps in current institutional arrangements in dealing and managing climate change in the agriculture sector. For this purpose, 53 office bearers from thirteen public institutions in Punjab province of Pakistan were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire to collect data on climate knowledge, training, coordination, and resource availability. The study uses an index-based approach to calculate Institutional Capacity Indices (ICI) based on selected seven indicators. The results of the index analysis show that institutions have the least financial capacity, followed by lacking physical and human resources. Whereas results show high index value for perception and knowledge, indicating a good understanding of climate change at the institutional level. The overall ICI index value indicates a medium level capacity of institutions in dealing with climate change. Moreover, the study shows that gaps in management, non-availability of financial and physical resources, and lack of training are the key bottlenecks for limited adaptation support from public institutions. This study highlights the importance of reducing gaps so that institutions could play their role in building the resilience of the agriculture sector to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32839306, year = {2020}, author = {Borrelli, P and Robinson, DA and Panagos, P and Lugato, E and Yang, JE and Alewell, C and Wuepper, D and Montanarella, L and Ballabio, C}, title = {Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070).}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {36}, pages = {21994-22001}, pmid = {32839306}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/trends ; Environmental Monitoring ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Landslides/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Soil/chemistry ; Water/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Soil erosion is a major global soil degradation threat to land, freshwater, and oceans. Wind and water are the major drivers, with water erosion over land being the focus of this work; excluding gullying and river bank erosion. Improving knowledge of the probable future rates of soil erosion, accelerated by human activity, is important both for policy makers engaged in land use decision-making and for earth-system modelers seeking to reduce uncertainty on global predictions. Here we predict future rates of erosion by modeling change in potential global soil erosion by water using three alternative (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Global predictions rely on a high spatial resolution Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)-based semiempirical modeling approach (GloSEM). The baseline model (2015) predicts global potential soil erosion rates of [Formula: see text] Pg yr[-1], with current conservation agriculture (CA) practices estimated to reduce this by ∼5%. Our future scenarios suggest that socioeconomic developments impacting land use will either decrease (SSP1-RCP2.6-10%) or increase (SSP2-RCP4.5 +2%, SSP5-RCP8.5 +10%) water erosion by 2070. Climate projections, for all global dynamics scenarios, indicate a trend, moving toward a more vigorous hydrological cycle, which could increase global water erosion (+30 to +66%). Accepting some degrees of uncertainty, our findings provide insights into how possible future socioeconomic development will affect soil erosion by water using a globally consistent approach. This preliminary evidence seeks to inform efforts such as those of the United Nations to assess global soil erosion and inform decision makers developing national strategies for soil conservation.}, }
@article {pmid32838864, year = {2020}, author = {Perrin, P}, title = {[Global warming, nurses on front lines].}, journal = {Revue de l'infirmiere}, volume = {69}, number = {262}, pages = {33-35}, doi = {10.1016/S1293-8505(20)30184-6}, pmid = {32838864}, issn = {1293-8505}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Health Facilities ; Humans ; Nurses/*psychology ; }, abstract = {Although initiatives for reducing the carbon footprint of care facilities exist, they remain underdeveloped in terms of the current climate threat. Nurses must be involved in the decisions and initiatives taken to reduce the impact of their organisation on the environment and encourage caregivers to adopt a long lasting ecological approach.}, }
@article {pmid32838863, year = {2020}, author = {Baillat, A}, title = {[Heath and mobility facing climate change, what are the synergies ?].}, journal = {Revue de l'infirmiere}, volume = {69}, number = {262}, pages = {29-32}, doi = {10.1016/S1293-8505(20)30183-4}, pmid = {32838863}, issn = {1293-8505}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Human Migration ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {More attention is being focused on the consequences of climate change on migration and public health, but they are still poorly understood. While the health risks caused by climate change can contribute to an increase in migration, migrating and displaced people are also more exposed, due to the difficulties they face in accessing health services. The still unknown relationship between climate change, disasters, migration and health needs to be exposed.}, }
@article {pmid32838860, year = {2020}, author = {Drouet, E}, title = {[Climate change and spread of infectious diseases].}, journal = {Revue de l'infirmiere}, volume = {69}, number = {262}, pages = {20-23}, doi = {10.1016/S1293-8505(20)30180-9}, pmid = {32838860}, issn = {1293-8505}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Temperature and rainfall variations favour the exponential growth of populations of insects carrying viruses such as dengue or malaria. It is possible to present, using different evidence and observations, the rise in the infection risk across the world, according to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32838859, year = {2020}, author = {Lescarmontier, L}, title = {[Understanding climate change].}, journal = {Revue de l'infirmiere}, volume = {69}, number = {262}, pages = {16-19}, doi = {10.1016/S1293-8505(20)30179-2}, pmid = {32838859}, issn = {1293-8505}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Rising greenhouse gas levels due to human activity are already having an impact on climate by increasing the atmospheric temperature. The current concentration of carbon dioxide released by industrial activity is the highest it has been for more than one million years. The oceans are warming and becoming more acidic. This climate change is causing radical changes to ecosystems, plants, marine life and wildlife, not to mention humans for whom agricultural resources and fresh water are becoming scarcer and coastal homes are under threat. There is still time for us to change our lifestyles.}, }
@article {pmid32838016, year = {2021}, author = {Silva, GS and Rosenbach, M}, title = {Climate change and dermatology: An introduction to a special topic, for this special issue.}, journal = {International journal of women's dermatology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {3-7}, pmid = {32838016}, issn = {2352-6475}, abstract = {Anthropogenic global climate change is a well-documented phenomenon that has led to average global temperatures climbing to approximately 1 °C above preindustrial (1850-1900) levels, with even higher regional deviations in some areas and significantly increased average warming in densely populated urban centers. In 2018, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change set a threshold of 1.5 °C of average warming (above the preindustrial baseline), beyond which our planet will become significantly less hospitable to human life. However, adverse human health impacts are already occurring due to current levels of global climate change, as summarized by publications such as The Lancet's annual "Countdown on Health and Climate Change," initiated in 2016. The human health impacts of climate change are truly cross-disciplinary, with nearly every medical specialty either already facing or set to face effects. The field of dermatology is not immune to these risks. This special issue of the International Journal of Women's Dermatology is dedicated to the cross section of dermatology and climate change. This initial article will serve as an overview to introduce readers to the topic and to lay the groundwork for the rest of the issue. We are delighted to work with the Women's Dermatological Society and welcome their support for this dedicated issue. Herein, you will read from up-and-coming stars in the field and established experts, including articles on the following key areas: infectious diseases, environmentally friendly office practices, sunscreens and the environment, refugee health, heat-related illness, the effect of air pollution on the skin, the impact of climate change on pediatric dermatology, implications for skin cancer, and skin issues related to flooding and extreme weather events.}, }
@article {pmid32838014, year = {2021}, author = {Coates, SJ and Norton, SA}, title = {The effects of climate change on infectious diseases with cutaneous manifestations.}, journal = {International journal of women's dermatology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {8-16}, pmid = {32838014}, issn = {2352-6475}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic climate change affects the burden of infectious diseases via several interconnected mechanisms. In recent years, there has been greater awareness of the ways in which climate-sensitive infectious diseases pose a growing threat to global public health.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to categorize and describe the effects of climate change on infectious diseases with skin manifestations.<br><br>METHODS: A scoping review of the MEDLINE and PubMed online databases for climate-sensitive infections was performed in February and March 2020. A representative selection of conditions with skin manifestations was included in this review.<br><br>RESULTS: Several representative climate-sensitive infectious diseases were identified in each of the following categories: vector-borne infectious diseases, infectious diseases associated with extreme weather events, and infectious diseases linked to human migration.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate variables directly influence the survival and reproduction of infectious microorganisms, their vectors, and their animal reservoirs. Due to sustained warmer temperatures at higher latitudes, climate change has expanded the geographic range of certain pathogenic microbes. More frequent climate change-related extreme weather events create circumstances where existing infectious microorganisms flourish and novel infections emerge. Climate instability is linked to increased human migration, which disrupts health care infrastructure as well as the habitats of microbes, vectors, and animal reservoirs and leads to widespread poverty and overcrowding. Dermatologists should understand that climate change will affect the burden and geographic distribution of infectious diseases, many of which have cutaneous signs and might be encountered in their regular practice.}, }
@article {pmid32837642, year = {2020}, author = {Hickey, GM and Unwin, N}, title = {Addressing the triple burden of malnutrition in the time of COVID-19 and climate change in Small Island Developing States: what role for improved local food production?.}, journal = {Food security}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {831-835}, pmid = {32837642}, issn = {1876-4517}, support = {MR/P025250/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food and nutrition insecurity are likely to be significant for Small Island Developing States due to their high dependence on foreign tourism, reliance on imported foods and underdeveloped local food production systems. SIDS are already experiencing high rates of nutrition-related death and disability, including double and triple burdens of malnutrition due to unhealthy diets. We consider the potential role for improved local food production to offset the severity of food system shocks in SIDS and identify the need for localized approaches to embrace systems thinking in order to facilitate communication, coordination and build resilience.}, }
@article {pmid32837539, year = {2020}, author = {Hulme, M and Lidskog, R and White, JM and Standring, A}, title = {Social scientific knowledge in times of crisis: What climate change can learn from coronavirus (and vice versa).}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e656}, pmid = {32837539}, issn = {1757-7780}, }
@article {pmid32837503, year = {2020}, author = {Heesterman, ARG}, title = {Containing the risk of catastrophic climate change.}, journal = {Clean technologies and environmental policy}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {1215-1227}, pmid = {32837503}, issn = {1618-9558}, abstract = {ABSTRACT: There is a general perception that limiting emissions of carbon dioxide will be sufficient to avoid catastrophic climate change. The reality could well be that the many of the world's wealthy coastal cities which historically developed as ports will be inundated repeatedly to disappear eventually below the sea, with large swathes of the earth being flooded. Other major conurbations may cease to be liveable without air conditioning, while large numbers of people could well starve as a result of disruption of ecosystems. To the extent that this possibility is recognized, it is nevertheless perceived as a gradual process with the worst results in a distance future with any sea-level rise a gradual process. Limiting emissions is unlikely to be sufficient, because the level of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere is now much higher than ever before since humans started to exploit fossil fuels. We know this from the study of ancient air bubbles in Antarctic ice cores. There is a lack of balance between the energy transmitted by the incoming sunlight and the earth's outgoing infrared heat radiation. So far this imbalance is absorbed by the enormous thermal mass of the oceans. As to the speed of sea-level rise, a period of extremely rapid sea-level rise of about 1.4 cm per year has occurred in the prehistoric past and disintegration of ice sheets as is happening currently may well be a plausible explanation of this fact. In fact, it is straightforward to create substantial amounts of negative emissions of carbon dioxide. Nevertheless, making it happen will require an unprecedented degree of global cooperation, a high level of taxation on the extraction of coal and crude oil, and the use of pressurized liquid petrol gas as aviation fuel.}, }
@article {pmid32836952, year = {2020}, author = {Bychkova, OV}, title = {COVID-19 and climate change reactions: STS potential of online research.}, journal = {Social anthropology : the journal of the European Association of Social Anthropologists = Anthropologie sociale}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {233-234}, doi = {10.1111/1469-8676.12884}, pmid = {32836952}, issn = {1469-8676}, }
@article {pmid32836842, year = {2020}, author = {Klenert, D and Funke, F and Mattauch, L and O'Callaghan, B}, title = {Five Lessons from COVID-19 for Advancing Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental &amp; resource economics}, volume = {76}, number = {4}, pages = {751-778}, pmid = {32836842}, issn = {0924-6460}, abstract = {The nexus of COVID-19 and climate change has so far brought attention to short-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions, public health responses, and clean recovery stimulus packages. We take a more holistic approach, making five broad comparisons between the crises with five associated lessons for climate change mitigation policy. First, delay is costly. Second, policy design must overcome biases to human judgment. Third, inequality can be exacerbated without timely action. Fourth, global problems require multiple forms of international cooperation. Fifth, transparency of normative positions is needed to navigate value judgments at the science-policy interface. Learning from policy challenges during the COVID-19 crisis could enhance efforts to reduce GHG emissions and prepare humanity for future crises.}, }
@article {pmid32836835, year = {2020}, author = {Brock, W and Xepapadeas, A}, title = {The Economy, Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: Links and Policy Implications.}, journal = {Environmental &amp; resource economics}, volume = {76}, number = {4}, pages = {811-824}, pmid = {32836835}, issn = {0924-6460}, abstract = {This short paper provides a modeling framework for unifying the economy, climate change and the outbreak of infectious diseases such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic. We stress that continuous growth of consumption activities, capital accumulation and climate change could increase the potential of the epidemic, its contact number or the probability of its arrival. This framework of analysis allows us to think of infectious disease policies in two stages. In the short run, containment policies like social distancing could help to stop the epidemic. In the medium and the long run, economic policies could help to reduce the potential of the epidemic or the probability of its emergence.}, }
@article {pmid32836701, year = {2021}, author = {Mngumi, LE}, title = {Exploring the contribution of social capital in building resilience for climate change effects in peri-urban areas, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.}, journal = {GeoJournal}, volume = {86}, number = {6}, pages = {2671-2689}, pmid = {32836701}, issn = {0343-2521}, abstract = {This article aims to contribute to the literature on the quest for resilient cities by focusing on the climate change resilience building discourse in peri-urban areas, and specifically by exploring the role of social capital-an under-researched topic. The article examines bonding social capital and bridging social capital, with a focus on how they can potentially contribute to, or inhibit, the socio-ecological system resilience building processes in the context of climate change reality in peri-urban areas. Theoretically, the author draws on the existing social capital and resilience related literatures; empirically, the article presents findings from a study conducted in the peri-urban areas of Pugu and Kazimzumbwi forest reserves on the outskirts of Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania. The study deployed a household survey and key informant interviews. It found that both bonding and bridging social capital were strong in the research area, suggesting the feasibility of building resilience to climate change effects. Examples are given of a number of resilience building interventions that were established through synergies between social capital actors and local communities, although some doubt is cast over the sustainability of these initiatives. Overall, both theoretical and empirical evidence suggests the importance of including a focus on social capital in exploring the building of climate change resilience pathways in peri-urban areas, and especially in the context of the global south.}, }
@article {pmid32836575, year = {2020}, author = {Gareau, BJ and Huang, X and Pisani Gareau, T and DiDonato, S}, title = {The strength of green ties: Massachusetts cranberry grower social networks and effects on climate change attitudes and action.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {162}, number = {3}, pages = {1613-1636}, pmid = {32836575}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {The cranberry, a commodity of social, cultural, and economic importance to New England, is under threat due to climatic change in this region of the United States. Yet, previous research reveals that cranberry growers have mixed attitudes about the anthropogenic roots of climate change, with many being skeptical. Building on the researchers' analysis of the personal and ecological conditions that affect climate change attitudes among cranberry growers, this paper examines the effect that key actors in the growers' social networks have on those attitudes. Through statistical analysis of survey data and content analysis of two important cranberry newsletters, the paper finds that cranberry growers' perceived importance of two key cranberry growing institutions, the "sociopolitically focused" Cape Cod Cranberry Growers' Association and the "technically focused" University of Massachusetts Cranberry Station, as well as connections to other cranberry growers, is associated in nuanced ways with growers' climate change attitudes. Drawing on the sociological theory of "social capital," the paper examines how these social ties to key actors/institutions may result in greater threat perception or worry about climate change. It then considers how "green ties," if harnessed and supported by these important actors in the cranberry grower network, might significantly mitigate climate change in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32836574, year = {2020}, author = {Dietz, T}, title = {Political events and public views on climate change.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {161}, number = {1}, pages = {1-8}, pmid = {32836574}, issn = {0165-0009}, }
@article {pmid32835446, year = {2020}, author = {Burraco, P and Orizaola, G and Monaghan, P and Metcalfe, NB}, title = {Climate change and ageing in ectotherms.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {5371-5381}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15305}, pmid = {32835446}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {834653//European Research Council Advanced Grant/International ; RYC-2016-20656//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/International ; NE/R001510/1//Natural Environment Research Council/International ; 797879-METAGE//H2020 Marie Sk&#x142;odowska-Curie Actions/International ; CT 16:344//Carl Tryggers Stiftelse f&#xf6;r Vetenskaplig Forskning/International ; }, mesh = {Aging ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Temperature ; Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {Human activity is changing climatic conditions at an unprecedented rate. The impact of these changes may be especially acute on ectotherms since they have limited capacities to use metabolic heat to maintain their body temperature. An increase in temperature is likely to increase the growth rate of ectothermic animals, and may also induce thermal stress via increased exposure to heat waves. Fast growth and thermal stress are metabolically demanding, and both factors can increase oxidative damage to essential biomolecules, accelerating the rate of ageing. Here, we explore the potential impact of global warming on ectotherm ageing through its effects on reactive oxygen species production, oxidative damage, and telomere shortening, at the individual and intergenerational levels. Most evidence derives primarily from vertebrates, although the concepts are broadly applicable to invertebrates. We also discuss candidate mechanisms that could buffer ectotherms from the potentially negative consequences of climate change on ageing. Finally, we suggest some potential applications of the study of ageing mechanisms for the implementation of conservation actions. We find a clear need for more ecological, biogeographical, and evolutionary studies on the impact of global climate change on patterns of ageing rates in wild populations of ectotherms facing warming conditions. Understanding the impact of warming on animal life histories, and on ageing in particular, needs to be incorporated into the design of measures to preserve biodiversity to improve their effectiveness.}, }
@article {pmid32834341, year = {2020}, author = {Ecker, UKH and Butler, LH and Cook, J and Hurlstone, MJ and Kurz, T and Lewandowsky, S}, title = {Using the COVID-19 economic crisis to frame climate change as a secondary issue reduces mitigation support.}, journal = {Journal of environmental psychology}, volume = {70}, number = {}, pages = {101464}, pmid = {32834341}, issn = {0272-4944}, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic has understandably dominated public discourse, crowding out other important issues such as climate change. Currently, if climate change enters the arena of public debate, it primarily does so in direct relation to the pandemic. In two experiments, we investigated (1) whether portraying the response to the COVID-19 threat as a "trial run" for future climate action would increase climate-change concern and mitigation support, and (2) whether portraying climate change as a concern that needs to take a "back seat" while focus lies on economic recovery would decrease climate-change concern and mitigation support. We found no support for the effectiveness of a trial-run frame in either experiment. In Experiment 1, we found that a back-seat frame reduced participants' support for mitigative action. In Experiment 2, the back-seat framing reduced both climate-change concern and mitigation support; a combined inoculation and refutation was able to offset the drop in climate concern but not the reduction in mitigation support.}, }
@article {pmid32833339, year = {2021}, author = {Jakubowski, HV and Bock, N and Busta, L and Pearce, M and Roston, RL and Shomo, ZD and Terrell, CR}, title = {Introducing climate change into the biochemistry and molecular biology curriculum.}, journal = {Biochemistry and molecular biology education : a bimonthly publication of the International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology}, volume = {49}, number = {2}, pages = {167-188}, doi = {10.1002/bmb.21422}, pmid = {32833339}, issn = {1539-3429}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Curriculum ; Humans ; Molecular Biology/*education ; }, abstract = {Our climate is changing due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases from the production and use of fossil fuels. Present atmospheric levels of CO2 were last seen 3 million years ago, when planetary temperature sustained high Arctic camels. As scientists and educators, we should feel a professional responsibility to discuss major scientific issues like climate change, and its profound consequences for humanity, with students who look up to us for knowledge and leadership, and who will be most affected in the future. We offer simple to complex backgrounds and examples to enable and encourage biochemistry educators to routinely incorporate this most important topic into their classrooms.}, }
@article {pmid32832070, year = {2020}, author = {Gosnell, H and Charnley, S and Stanley, P}, title = {Climate change mitigation as a co-benefit of regenerative ranching: insights from Australia and the United States.}, journal = {Interface focus}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {20200027}, pmid = {32832070}, issn = {2042-8898}, abstract = {'Managed grazing' is gaining attention for its potential to contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing bare ground and promoting perennialization, thereby enhancing soil carbon sequestration (SCS). Understanding why ranchers adopt managed grazing is key to developing the right incentives. In this paper, we explore principles and practices associated with the larger enterprise of 'regenerative ranching' (RR), which includes managed grazing but infuses the practice with holistic decision-making. We argue that this broader approach is appealing due to a suite of ecological, economic and social benefits, making climate change mitigation an afterthought, or 'co-benefit'. RR is challenging, however, because it requires a deep understanding of ecological processes along with a set of skills related to monitoring and moving livestock and feeding the soil microbiome. We review the literature regarding links between RR and SCS, then present results of qualitative research focused on motivators, enablers and constraints associated with RR, drawing on interviews with 52 practitioners in New South Wales, Australia and the western United States. Our analysis is guided by a conceptual model of the social-ecological system associated with RR that identifies determinants of regenerative potential. We discuss implications for rancher engagement and conclude with a consideration of leverage points for global scalability.}, }
@article {pmid32832065, year = {2020}, author = {Taillardat, P and Thompson, BS and Garneau, M and Trottier, K and Friess, DA}, title = {Climate change mitigation potential of wetlands and the cost-effectiveness of their restoration.}, journal = {Interface focus}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {20190129}, pmid = {32832065}, issn = {2042-8898}, abstract = {The cost-effective mitigation of climate change through nature-based carbon dioxide removal strategies has gained substantial policy attention. Inland and coastal wetlands (specifically boreal, temperate and tropical peatlands; tundra; floodplains; freshwater marshes; saltmarshes; and mangroves) are among the most efficient natural long-term carbon sinks. Yet, they also release methane (CH4) that can offset the carbon they sequester. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis on wetland carbon dynamics to (i) determine their impact on climate using different metrics and time horizons, (ii) investigate the cost-effectiveness of wetland restoration for climate change mitigation, and (iii) discuss their suitability for inclusion in climate policy as negative emission technologies. Depending on metrics, a wetland can simultaneously be a net carbon sink (i.e. boreal and temperate peatlands net ecosystem carbon budget = -28.1 ± 19.13 gC m[-2] y[-1]) but have a net warming effect on climate at the 100 years time-scale (i.e. boreal and temperate peatland sustained global warming potential = 298.2 ± 100.6 gCO2 eq[-1] m[-2] y[-1]). This situation creates ambivalence regarding the effect of wetlands on global temperature. Moreover, our review reveals high heterogeneity among the (limited number of) studies that document wetland carbon budgets. We demonstrate that most coastal and inland wetlands have a net cooling effect as of today. This is explained by the limited CH4 emissions that undisturbed coastal wetlands produce, and the long-term carbon sequestration performed by older inland wetlands as opposed to the short lifetime of CH4 in the atmosphere. Analysis of wetland restoration costs relative to the amount of carbon they can sequester revealed that restoration is more cost-effective in coastal wetlands such as mangroves (US$1800 ton C[-1]) compared with inland wetlands (US$4200-49 200 ton C[-1]). We advise that for inland wetlands, priority should be given to conservation rather than restoration; while for coastal wetlands, both conservation and restoration may be effective techniques for climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid32828480, year = {2020}, author = {Nicholas, PK and Breakey, S and White, BP and Brown, MJ and Fanuele, J and Starodub, R and Ros, AV}, title = {Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change: Perspectives for the ED Clinician.}, journal = {Journal of emergency nursing}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {590-599}, pmid = {32828480}, issn = {1527-2966}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Emergency Nursing ; Humans ; Mental Disorders/*nursing ; *Nurse's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid32826931, year = {2020}, author = {Harris, RMB and Loeffler, F and Rumm, A and Fischer, C and Horchler, P and Scholz, M and Foeckler, F and Henle, K}, title = {Biological responses to extreme weather events are detectable but difficult to formally attribute to anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {14067}, pmid = {32826931}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; *Extreme Weather ; Germany ; Mollusca/physiology ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Rivers ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {As the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts, heatwaves and floods have increased over recent decades, more extreme biological responses are being reported, and there is widespread interest in attributing such responses to anthropogenic climate change. However, the formal detection and attribution of biological responses to climate change is associated with many challenges. We illustrate these challenges with data from the Elbe River floodplain, Germany. Using community turnover and stability indices, we show that responses in plant, carabid and mollusc communities are detectable following extreme events. Community composition and species dominance changed following the extreme flood and summer heatwave of 2002/2003 (all taxa); the 2006 flood and heatwave (molluscs); and after the recurring floods and heatwave of 2010 and the 2013 flood (plants). Nevertheless, our ability to attribute these responses to anthropogenic climate change is limited by high natural variability in climate and biological data; lack of long-term data and replication, and the effects of multiple events. Without better understanding of the mechanisms behind change and the interactions, feedbacks and potentially lagged responses, multiple-driver attribution is unlikely. We discuss whether formal detection and/or attribution is necessary and suggest ways in which understanding of biological responses to extreme events could progress.}, }
@article {pmid32825094, year = {2020}, author = {Parrish, R and Colbourn, T and Lauriola, P and Leonardi, G and Hajat, S and Zeka, A}, title = {A Critical Analysis of the Drivers of Human Migration Patterns in the Presence of Climate Change: A New Conceptual Model.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {32825094}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; *Human Migration ; Humans ; Malawi ; }, abstract = {Both climate change and migration present key concerns for global health progress. Despite this, a transparent method for identifying and understanding the relationship between climate change, migration and other contextual factors remains a knowledge gap. Existing conceptual models are useful in understanding the complexities of climate migration, but provide varying degrees of applicability to quantitative studies, resulting in non-homogenous transferability of knowledge in this important area. This paper attempts to provide a critical review of climate migration literature, as well as presenting a new conceptual model for the identification of the drivers of migration in the context of climate change. It focuses on the interactions and the dynamics of drivers over time, space and society. Through systematic, pan-disciplinary and homogenous application of theory to different geographical contexts, we aim to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on migration. A brief case study of Malawi is provided to demonstrate how this global conceptual model can be applied into local contextual scenarios. In doing so, we hope to provide insights that help in the more homogenous applications of conceptual frameworks for this area and more generally.}, }
@article {pmid32824916, year = {2020}, author = {Verma, KK and Song, XP and Li, DM and Singh, M and Rajput, VD and Malviya, MK and Minkina, T and Singh, RK and Singh, P and Li, YR}, title = {Interactive Role of Silicon and Plant-Rhizobacteria Mitigating Abiotic Stresses: A New Approach for Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {32824916}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {Guangxi R and D Program Fund, grant number GK17195100, Fund for Guangxi Innovation Teams of Modern Agriculture Technology, grant number gjnytxgxcxtd-03-01, and Fund of Guangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences, grant number 2015YT02.//Yang-Rui Li/ ; }, abstract = {Abiotic stresses are the major constraints in agricultural crop production across the globe. The use of some plant-microbe interactions are established as an environment friendly way of enhancing crop productivity, and improving plant development and tolerance to abiotic stresses by direct or indirect mechanisms. Silicon (Si) can also stimulate plant growth and mitigate environmental stresses, and it is not detrimental to plants and is devoid of environmental contamination even if applied in excess quantity. In the present review, we elaborate the interactive application of Si and plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPRs) as an ecologically sound practice to increase the plant growth rate in unfavorable situations, in the presence of abiotic stresses. Experiments investigating the combined use of Si and PGPRs on plants to cope with abiotic stresses can be helpful in the future for agricultural sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid32824833, year = {2020}, author = {Riseth, J&#xc5; and Tømmervik, H and Tryland, M}, title = {Spreading or Gathering? Can Traditional Knowledge be a Resource to Tackle Reindeer Diseases Associated with Climate Change?.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {16}, pages = {}, pmid = {32824833}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Health Resources ; Indigenous Peoples ; *Reindeer ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {This paper inquires whether reindeer herders' traditional knowledge (TK) provides a reservoir of precaution and adaptation possibilities that may be relevant to counteract climate change. As our core example, we used the milking of reindeer-which, in some areas, was practiced up until the 1950s-1960s-and the risk of getting foot rot disease (digital necrobacillosis; slubbo in North Sámi), caused by the bacterium Fusobacterium necrophorum. Via wounds or scratches, the bacterium creates an infection that makes the infected limb swell and, eventually, necrotize. The disease is often mortal in its final stage. Historically, female reindeer were gathered on unfenced milking meadows near herder tents or in small corrals, from early summer onward. When the soil was wet and muddy, the risk of developing digital necrobacillosis was considerable. Our sources included classical Sámi author/herder narratives, ethnographic and veterinary literature, and herder interviews. For this study, we conducted a qualitative review of the literature and carried out individual in-depth interviews with local knowledge holders. Our findings seem consistent: a documented prevention strategy was, in early summer, to move the reindeer to unused grazing land and to avoid staying too long in trampled and dirty grazing land. Contemporary climate change and winter uncertainty due to freeze-thaw cycles and ice-locked pastures challenge this type of strategy. Due to a lack of pasture resources, typical actions today include the increased use of supplementary feeding, which involves more gathering and handling of reindeer, higher animal density, challenging hygienic conditions, and stress, which all contribute to increased risks of contracting and transmitting diseases.}, }
@article {pmid32824250, year = {2020}, author = {Narouei-Khandan, HA and Shakya, SK and Garrett, KA and Goss, EM and Dufault, NS and Andrade-Piedra, JL and Asseng, S and Wallach, D and Bruggen, AHCV}, title = {BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of Phytophthora infestans to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change.}, journal = {Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {32824250}, issn = {2076-0817}, support = {N/A//Esther B. O'Keeffe Foundation/ ; N/A//US-AID linkage fund project/ ; }, abstract = {Temperature response curves under diurnal oscillating temperatures differ from those under constant conditions for all stages of the Phytophthora infestans infection cycle on potatoes. We developed a mechanistic model (BLIGHTSIM) with an hourly time step to simulate late blight under fluctuating environmental conditions and predict late blight epidemics in potato fields. BLIGHTSIM is a modified susceptible (S), latent (L), infectious (I) and removed (R) compartmental model with hourly temperature and relative humidity as driving variables. The model was calibrated with growth chamber data covering one infection cycle and validated with field data from Ecuador. The model provided a good fit to all data sets evaluated. There was a significant interaction between average temperature and amplitude in their effects on the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) as predicted from growth chamber data on a single infection cycle. BLIGHTSIM can be incorporated in a potato growth model to study effects of diurnal temperature range on late blight impact under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid32822078, year = {2021}, author = {ObregÓn, RL and Scolaro, JA and IbargÜengoytÍa, NR and Medina, M}, title = {Thermal biology and locomotor performance in Phymaturus calcogaster: are Patagonian lizards vulnerable to climate change?.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {53-66}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12481}, pmid = {32822078}, issn = {1749-4877}, support = {PI 1123//Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia San Juan Bosco/ ; CRUB UNComahue 04/B196//Universidad Nacional del Comahue/ ; PIP 100271//Argentinean Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cient&#xed;ficas y T&#xe9;cnicas/ ; PICT-2014-3100//Fondo para la Investigaci&#xf3;n Cient&#xed;fica y Tecnol&#xf3;gica/ ; IOS-1022031//Sinervo by NSF/ ; EF-48//Sinervo by NSF/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Argentina ; Body Temperature/physiology ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Female ; Lizards/*physiology ; Locomotion/*physiology ; Male ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Behavioral and physiological traits of ectotherms are especially sensitive to fluctuations of environmental temperature. In particular, niche-specialist lizards are dependent on their physiological plasticity to adjust to changing environmental conditions. Lizards of the genus Phymaturus are viviparous, mainly herbivorous, and inhabit only rock promontories in the steppe environments of Patagonia and the Andes. Herein, we examine the vulnerability of the southernmost Phymaturus species to global warming: the endemic Phymaturus calcogaster, which lives in a mesic environment in eastern Patagonia. We studied body temperatures in the field (Tb), preferred body temperatures in a thermogradient (Tpref), the operative (Te) and environmental temperatures, and the dependence of running performance on body temperature. P. calcogaster had a mean Tb (27.04°C) and a mean Te (31.15°C) both lower than their preferred temperature (Tpref = 36.61°C) and the optimal temperature for running performance (To = 37.13°C). Lizard activity seems to be restraint during the early afternoon due high environmental temperatures. However, both, the high safety margin and warming tolerance suggest that the expected increase in environmental temperatures due to global warming (IPCC report in 2018) would not threaten, but indeed enhance locomotor performance in this population.}, }
@article {pmid32821662, year = {2020}, author = {Ali, MZ and Carlile, G and Giasuddin, M}, title = {Impact of global climate change on livestock health: Bangladesh perspective.}, journal = {Open veterinary journal}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {178-188}, pmid = {32821662}, issn = {2218-6050}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/economics/*veterinary ; Disasters ; Economic Development ; Food Security ; Heat-Shock Response ; Livestock/*physiology ; Oxidative Stress ; }, abstract = {The global carbon emission rate, due to energy-driven consumption of fossil fuels and anthropogenic activities, is higher at any point in mankind history, disrupting the global carbon cycle and contributing to a major cause of warming of the planet with air and ocean temperatures, which is rising dangerously over the past century. Climate change presents challenges both direct and indirect for livestock production and health. With more frequent extreme weather events including increased temperatures, livestock health is greatly affected by resulting heat stress, metabolic disorder, oxidative stress, and immune suppression, resulting in an increased propensity for disease incidence and death. The indirect health effects relate to the multiplication and distribution of parasites, reproduction, virulence, and transmission of infectious pathogens and/or their vectors. Managing the growing crossbreeding livestock industry in Bangladesh is also at the coalface for the emerging impacts of climate change, with unknown consequences for the incidence of emerging and re-emerging diseases. Bangladesh is now one of the most vulnerable nations to global climate change. The livestock sector is considered as a major part of food security for Bangladesh, alongside agriculture, and with one of the world's largest growing economies, the impacts are exaggerated with this disaster. There has been no direct study conducted on the impact of climate change on livestock health and the diseases in Bangladesh. This review looks to explore the linkage between climate change and livestock health and provide some guidelines to combat the impact on livestock from the Bangladesh perspective.}, }
@article {pmid32820243, year = {2020}, author = {Garcia, D}, title = {Redirect military budgets to tackle climate change and pandemics.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {584}, number = {7822}, pages = {521-523}, pmid = {32820243}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Armed Conflicts/economics/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Artificial Intelligence ; Budgets/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/economics/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Extreme Weather ; *Federal Government ; Global Warming/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; Goals ; Humans ; International Cooperation/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Military Science/*economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Pandemics/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control ; Pneumonia, Viral/economics/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Security Measures/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Violence/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid32816556, year = {2020}, author = {Krieger, N}, title = {ENOUGH: COVID-19, Structural Racism, Police Brutality, Plutocracy, Climate Change-and Time for Health Justice, Democratic Governance, and an Equitable, Sustainable Future.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {110}, number = {11}, pages = {1620-1623}, pmid = {32816556}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Coronavirus Infections/economics/*epidemiology/ethnology ; Health Equity/trends ; Healthcare Disparities/economics/ethnology/*trends ; Humans ; Law Enforcement ; *Pandemics/economics ; Pneumonia, Viral/economics/*epidemiology/ethnology ; Police ; Political Systems ; Public Health/*trends ; Racism ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Social Justice ; Social Problems/*trends ; United States/epidemiology ; Violence ; }, }
@article {pmid32814293, year = {2020}, author = {Verrall, B and Pickering, CM}, title = {Alpine vegetation in the context of climate change: A global review of past research and future directions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {748}, number = {}, pages = {141344}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141344}, pmid = {32814293}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Grassland ; Humans ; South America ; }, abstract = {Climate change is causing extensive alterations to ecosystems globally, with some more vulnerable than others. Alpine ecosystems, characterised by low-temperatures and cryophilic vegetation, provide ecosystems services for billions of people but are considered among the most susceptible to climate change. Therefore, it is timely to review research on climate change on alpine vegetation including assessing trends, topics, themes and gaps. Using a multicomponent bibliometric approach, we extracted bibliometric metadata from 3143 publications identified by searching titles, keywords and abstracts for research on 'climate change' and 'alpine vegetation' from Scopus and Web of Science. While primarily focusing on 'alpine vegetation', some literature that also assessed vegetation below the treeline was captured. There has been an exponential increase in research over 50 years, greater engagement and diversification in who does research, and where it is published and conducted, with increasing focus beyond Europe, particularly in China. Content analysis of titles, keywords and abstracts revealed that most of the research has focused on alpine grasslands but there have been relatively few publications that examine specialist vegetation communities such as snowbeds, subnival vegetation and fellfields. Important themes emerged from analysis of keywords, including treelines and vegetation dynamics, biodiversity, the Tibetan Plateau as well as grasslands and meadows. Traditional ecological monitoring techniques were important early on, but remote sensing has become the primary method for assessment. A key book on alpine plants, the IPCC reports and a few papers in leading journals underpin much of the research. Overall, research on this topic is increasing, with new methods and directions but thematic and geographical gaps remain particularly for research on extreme climatic events, and research in South America, in part due to limited capacity for research on these rare but valuable ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid32814292, year = {2020}, author = {Ward, RD}, title = {Carbon sequestration and storage in Norwegian Arctic coastal wetlands: Impacts of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {748}, number = {}, pages = {141343}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141343}, pmid = {32814292}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Coastal wetlands contain some of the largest stores of pedologic and biotic carbon pools, and climate change is likely to influence the ability of these ecosystems to sequester carbon. Recent studies have attempted to provide data on carbon sequestration in both temperate and tropical coastal wetlands. Alteration of Arctic wetland carbon sequestration rates is also likely where coastal forcing mechanisms interact directly with these coastal systems. At present there are no data available to provide a detailed understanding of present day and historical carbon sequestration rates within Arctic coastal wetlands. In order to address this knowledge gap, rates of carbon sequestration were assessed within five Arctic coastal wetland sites in Norway. This was undertaken using radiometric dating techniques ([210]Pb and [137]Cs) to establish a geochronology for recent wetland development, and soil carbon stocks were estimated from cores. Average carbon sequestration rates were varied, both between sites and over time, ranging between 19 and 603 g C m[2] y[-1], and these were correlated with increases in the length of the growing season. Stocks ranged between 3.67 and 13.79 Mg C ha[-1], which is very low compared with global average estimations for similar coastal systems, e.g. 250 Mg C ha[-1] for temperate salt marshes, 280 Mg C ha[-1] for mangroves, and 140 Mg C ha[-1] for seagrasses. This is most likely due to isostatic uplift and sediment accretion historically outpacing sea level rise, which results in wetland progradation and thus a continuous formation of new marsh with thin organic soil horizons. However, with increasing rates of sea level rise it is uncertain whether this trend is set to continue or be reversed.}, }
@article {pmid32814284, year = {2020}, author = {Fu, H and Yuan, G and Özkan, K and Johansson, LS and Søndergaard, M and Lauridsen, TL and Jeppesen, E}, title = {Seasonal and long-term trends in the spatial heterogeneity of lake phytoplankton communities over two decades of restoration and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {748}, number = {}, pages = {141106}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141106}, pmid = {32814284}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Eutrophication ; *Lakes ; Phosphorus/analysis ; *Phytoplankton ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {World-wide, reducing the external nutrient loading to lakes has been the primary priority of lake management in the restoration of eutrophic lakes over the past decades, and as expected this has resulted in an increase in the local environmental heterogeneity, and thus biotic heterogeneity, within lakes. However, little is known about how the regional spatial heterogeneity of lake biotic communities changes with restoration across a landscape. Using a long-term monitoring dataset from 20 Danish lakes, we elucidated the seasonal and long-term trends in the spatial heterogeneity of climate, local abiotic variables and phytoplankton communities over two decades of restoration and climate change at landscape level. We found significant seasonality in the spatial heterogeneity of most climatic and local drivers as well as in the total beta diversity (Sørensen coefficient) and its turnover components (Simpson coefficient) of phytoplankton communities among the lakes. The seasonality tended to be less marked in deep than in shallow lakes. We found significant spatial homogenisation of most local drivers (except for alkalinity) and phytoplankton communities after two decades of restoration and that turnover dominated the temporal responses of the total beta diversity of phytoplankton communities. Path analyses showed that the homogenisation of phytoplankton communities was mainly due to a decrease in spatial heterogeneity of total phosphorus and Schmidt stability in shallow lakes and to a decrease in spatial total phosphorus and total nitrogen heterogeneity in deep lakes. However, albeit weakly, the spatial heterogeneity of the phytoplankton communities was affected indirectly by climatic warming in both shallow and deep lakes and directly by wind speed in shallow lakes. We conclude that restoration of eutrophic lakes may lead to an increase in the local heterogeneity of phytoplankton communities at lake scale and an increase in homogeneity at landscape scale.}, }
@article {pmid32814000, year = {2020}, author = {Kellermann, V and McEvey, SF and Sgrò, CM and Hoffmann, AA}, title = {Phenotypic Plasticity for Desiccation Resistance, Climate Change, and Future Species Distributions: Will Plasticity Have Much Impact?.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {196}, number = {3}, pages = {306-315}, doi = {10.1086/710006}, pmid = {32814000}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Desiccation ; Drosophila/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {AbstractWhile species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to climate change, they do not explicitly indicate the extent to which plastic responses ameliorate climate change impacts. Here we use data on plastic responses of 32 species of Drosophila to desiccation stress to suggest that basal resistance, rather than adult hardening, is relatively more important in determining species differences in desiccation resistance and sensitivity to climate change. We go on to show, using the semimechanistic SDM CLIMEX, that the inclusion of plasticity has some impact on current species distributions and future vulnerability for widespread species but has little impact on the distribution of arguably more vulnerable tropically restricted species.}, }
@article {pmid32813898, year = {2020}, author = {Radinger, J and García-Berthou, E}, title = {The role of connectivity in the interplay between climate change and the spread of alien fish in a large Mediterranean river.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {6383-6398}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15320}, pmid = {32813898}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//BiodivERsA/ ; CGL2015-69311-REDT//Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities/ ; CGL2016-80820-R//Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities/ ; PCIN-2016-168//Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities/ ; 2014 SGR 484//Government of Catalonia/ ; 2017 SGR 548//Government of Catalonia/ ; //DEAL/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Introduced Species ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Understanding how global change and connectivity will jointly modify the distribution of riverine species is crucial for conservation biology and environmental management. However, little is known about the interaction between climate change and fragmentation and how movement barriers might impede native species from adjusting their distributions versus limit the further spread of alien species. In this study, we modelled the current and future distributions of 11 native and five alien fishes in the large and heavily fragmented Ebro River, located within the Mediterranean region, which has many freshwater endemics severely threatened by global change. We considered 10 climate change models and five modelling algorithms and assessed the effects of connectivity on the accessibility of future suitable habitats. Thereby, we identify most conflict-prone river reaches, that is, where barriers pose a particular trade-off between isolating and negatively impacting native species versus potentially reducing the risk of alien species spread. Our results projected upstream habitat shifts for the vast majority of the species. Climate change affected species differently, with alien species generally showing larger habitat gains compared to natives. Most pronounced distributional changes (i.e. losses of native species and gains of alien species) and compositional turnover might be expected in the lower and mid reaches of large tributaries of the Ebro River. The role of anthropogenic barriers in this context is often ambiguous but rather unfavourable, as they not only restrict native fishes but also alter stream habitats and flow conditions. However, with our spatial modelling framework, we could identify specific river reaches where the connectivity trade-off in the context of climate change is particularly relevant. Overall, our findings emphasize the importance of the complex effects that climate change, riverine connectivity and alien species are expected to impose on river communities and the urgent need to adapt management strategies accordingly.}, }
@article {pmid32810503, year = {2020}, author = {Brugueras, S and Fernández-Martínez, B and Martínez-de la Puente, J and Figuerola, J and Porro, TM and Rius, C and Larrauri, A and Gómez-Barroso, D}, title = {Environmental drivers, climate change and emergent diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and their vectors in southern Europe: A systematic review.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {191}, number = {}, pages = {110038}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.110038}, pmid = {32810503}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Aedes ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Croatia ; *Culicidae ; Europe/epidemiology ; France ; Greece ; Humans ; Italy ; Portugal ; Spain ; *Zika Virus ; *Zika Virus Infection/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Mosquito borne diseases are a group of infections that affect humans. Emerging or reemerging diseases are those that (re)occur in regions, groups or hosts that were previously free from these diseases: dengue virus; chikungunya virus; Zika virus; West Nile fever and malaria. In Europe, these infections are mostly imported; however, due to the presence of competent mosquitoes and the number of trips both to and from endemic areas, these pathogens are potentially emergent or re-emergent. Present and future climatic conditions, as well as meteorological, environmental and demographic aspects are risk factors for the distribution of different vectors and/or diseases. This review aimed to identify and analyze the existing literature on the transmission of mosquito borne diseases and those factors potentially affecting their transmission risk of them in six southern European countries with similar environmental conditions: Croatia, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. In addition, we would identify those factors potentially affecting the (re)introduction or spread of mosquito vectors. This task has been undertaken with a focus on the environmental and climatic factors, including the effects of climate change. We undertook a systematic review of the vectors, diseases and their associations with climactic and environmental factors in European countries of the Mediterranean region. We followed the PRISMA guidelines and used explicit and systematic methods to identify, select and critically evaluate the studies which were relevant to the topic. We identified 1302 articles in the first search of the databases. Of those, 160 were selected for full-text review. The final data set included 61 articles published between 2000 and 2017.39.3% of the papers were related with dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus or their vectors. Temperature, precipitation and population density were key factors among others. 32.8% studied West Nile virus and its vectors, being temperature, precipitation and NDVI the most frequently used variables. Malaria have been studied in 23% of the articles, with temperature, precipitation and presence of water indexes as the most used variables. The number of publications focused on mosquito borne diseases is increasing in recent years, reflecting the increased interest in that diseases in southern European countries. Climatic and environmental variables are key factors on mosquitoes' distribution and to show the risk of emergence and/or spread of emergent diseases and to study the spatial changes in that distributions.}, }
@article {pmid32810170, year = {2020}, author = {Behroozian, M and Ejtehadi, H and Peterson, AT and Memariani, F and Mesdaghi, M}, title = {Climate change influences on the potential distribution of Dianthus polylepis Bien. ex Boiss. (Caryophyllaceae), an endemic species in the Irano-Turanian region.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {e0237527}, pmid = {32810170}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Altitude ; Caryophyllaceae/classification/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Demography ; Dianthus/classification/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Geography ; Iran ; Spatial Analysis ; Turkmenistan ; }, abstract = {Endemic and restricted-range species are considered to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of environmental change, which makes assessing likely climate change effects on geographic distributions of such species important to the development of integrated conservation strategies. Here, we determined distributional patterns for an endemic species of Dianthus (Dianthus polylepis) in the Irano-Turanian region using a maximum-entropy algorithm. In total, 70 occurrence points and 19 climatic variables were used to estimate the potential distributional area under current conditions and two future representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios under seven general circulation models for 2050. Mean diurnal range, iso-thermality, minimum temperature of coldest quarter, and annual precipitation were major factors that appeared to structure the distribution of the species. Most current potential suitable areas were located in montane regions. Model transfers to future-climate scenarios displayed upward shifts in elevation and northward shifts geographically for the species. Our results can be used to define high-priority areas in the Irano-Turanian region for conservation management plans for this species and can offer a template for analyses of other endangered and threatened species in the region.}, }
@article {pmid32807810, year = {2020}, author = {Kuhn, KG and Nygård, KM and Guzman-Herrador, B and Sunde, LS and Rimhanen-Finne, R and Trönnberg, L and Jepsen, MR and Ruuhela, R and Wong, WK and Ethelberg, S}, title = {Campylobacter infections expected to increase due to climate change in Northern Europe.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {13874}, pmid = {32807810}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Campylobacter Infections/*epidemiology/*etiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Data Analysis ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; Europe/epidemiology ; Female ; Foodborne Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Temperature ; United States ; United States Public Health Service ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is predicted to alter precipitation and temperature patterns across the world, affecting a range of infectious diseases and particularly foodborne infections such as Campylobacter. In this study, we used national surveillance data to analyse the relationship between climate and campylobacteriosis in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden and estimate the impact of climate changes on future disease patterns. We show that Campylobacter incidences are linked to increases in temperature and especially precipitation in the week before illness, suggesting a non-food transmission route. These four countries may experience a doubling of Campylobacter cases by the end of the 2080s, corresponding to around 6,000 excess cases per year caused only by climate changes. Considering the strong worldwide burden of campylobacteriosis, it is important to assess local and regional impacts of climate change in order to initiate timely public health management and adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32806406, year = {2020}, author = {Barrios, RE and Akbariyeh, S and Liu, C and Gani, KM and Kovalchuk, MT and Li, X and Li, Y and Snow, D and Tang, Z and Gates, J and Bartelt-Hunt, SL}, title = {Climate change impacts the subsurface transport of atrazine and estrone originating from agricultural production activities.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {265}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {115024}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115024}, pmid = {32806406}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Atrazine ; Climate Change ; Estrone ; Nebraska ; }, abstract = {Climate change will impact soil properties such as soil moisture, organic carbon and temperature and changes in these properties will influence the sorption, biodegradation and leaching of trace organic contaminants to groundwater. In this study, we conducted a modeling case study to evaluate atrazine and estrone transport in the subsurface under current and future climate conditions at a field site in central Nebraska. According to the modeling results, in the future, enhanced evapotranspiration and increased average air temperature may cause drier soil conditions, which consequently reduces the biodegradation of atrazine and estrone in the water phase. On the other hand, greater transpiration rates lead to greater root solute uptake which may decrease the concentration of atrazine and estrone in the soil profile. Another consequence of future climate is that the infiltration and leaching rates for both atrazine and estrone may be lower under future climate scenarios. Reduced infiltration of trace organic compounds may indicate that lower trace organic concentrations in groundwater may occur under future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid32806380, year = {2020}, author = {Torres Castillo, NE and Melchor-Martínez, EM and Ochoa Sierra, JS and Ramirez-Mendoza, RA and Parra-Saldívar, R and Iqbal, HMN}, title = {Impact of climate change and early development of coffee rust - An overview of control strategies to preserve organic cultivars in Mexico.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {738}, number = {}, pages = {140225}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140225}, pmid = {32806380}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Basidiomycota ; Climate Change ; *Coffee ; Mexico ; Plant Diseases ; }, abstract = {Coffee is one of the most important commercial traded commodities in the international market, as well as the most popular beverage around the world. In Mexico, organic coffee cultivation (specifically, Arabica coffee crops) is a highly demanded that generates up to 500,000 employments in 14 federal entities. Among various coffee producers, Chiapas, Veracruz, and Oaxaca are responsible of 80% of the total coffee production in the country. Currently, Mexico is the leading producer of organic coffee in the world. However, there have been a slow recovery due to the large production losses since 2012, caused by earlier and highly aggressive outbreaks of coffee leaf rust (CLR), in the country, where the infectious agent is known as Hemileia vastatrix (HV). This phenomenon is becoming frequent, and climate change effects could be the main contributors. This spontaneous proliferation was generated in Mexico, due to the precipitation and temperature variability, during the last decade. As result, in Mexico, the biological interaction between coffee crops and their environment has been harmed and crucial characteristics, as crop yield and quality, are particularly being affected, directly by the negative effects of the greenhouse phenomenon, and indirectly, through diseases as CLR. Therefore, this review discusses the contribution of climate change effects in the early development of CLR in Mexico. The focus is also given on possible schemes and actions taken around the world as control measures to adapt the vulnerable coffee varieties to tackle this challenging issue.}, }
@article {pmid32806345, year = {2020}, author = {LaMere, K and Mäntyniemi, S and Haapasaari, P}, title = {The effects of climate change on Baltic salmon: Framing the problem in collaboration with expert stakeholders.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {738}, number = {}, pages = {140068}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140068}, pmid = {32806345}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Baltic States ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fisheries ; *Salmon ; }, abstract = {In the Baltic Sea region, salmon are valued for the ecological, economic, and cultural benefits they provide. However, these fish are threatened due to historical overfishing, disease, and reduced access to spawning rivers. Climate change may pose another challenge for salmon management. Therefore, we conducted a problem-framing study to explore the effects climate change may have on salmon and the socio-ecological system they are embedded within. Addressing this emerging issue will require the cooperation of diverse stakeholders and the integration of their knowledge and values in a contentious management context. Therefore, we conducted this problem framing as a participatory process with stakeholders, whose mental models and questionnaire responses form the basis of this study. By framing the climate change problem in this way, we aim to provide a holistic understanding of the problem and incorporate stakeholder perspectives into the management process from an early stage to better address their concerns and establish common ground. We conclude that considering climate change is relevant for Baltic salmon management, although it may not be the most pressing threat facing these fish. Stakeholders disagree about whether climate change will harm or benefit salmon, when it will become a relevant issue in the Baltic context, and whether or not management efforts can mitigate any negative impacts climate change may have on salmon and their fishery. Nevertheless, by synthesizing the stakeholders' influence diagrams, we found 15 themes exemplifying: (1) how climate change may affect salmon, (2) goals for salmon management considering climate change, and (3) strategies for achieving those goals. Further, the stakeholders tended to focus on the riverine environment and the salmon life stages occurring therein, potentially indicating the perceived vulnerability of these life stages to climate change. Interestingly, however, the stakeholders tended to focus on traditional fishery management measures, like catch quotas, to meet their goals for these fish considering climate change. Further, social variables, like "politics," "international cooperation," and "employment" comprised a large proportion of the stakeholders' diagrams, demonstrating the importance of these factors for salmon management.}, }
@article {pmid32803604, year = {2020}, author = {Pickson, RB and He, G and Ntiamoah, EB and Li, C}, title = {Cereal production in the presence of climate change in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {36}, pages = {45802-45813}, pmid = {32803604}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Economic Development ; *Edible Grain/chemistry ; }, abstract = {This study sought to investigate the impacts of climate change on cereal production in China over the period 1990Q1-2013Q4. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the results showed that CO2 emissions, average temperature, and temperature variability have a significant negative impact on cereal production in the long run. However, energy consumption, average rainfall, labor force, and cultivated area significantly and positively influenced the production of cereal crops in the long run. Meanwhile, the study observed that rainfall variability has no significant effect on cereal production in the long run. The study again found that in the short run, CO2 emissions, average temperature, and temperature variability have a significant negative relationship with cereal production. Besides, energy consumption, average rainfall, rainfall variability, labor force, and the cultivated area had a significant positive association with cereal production in the short run. The results of the Granger causality test showed that there exists a unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and labor force to the production of cereal crops in China. On the contrary, the study found no causality between cultivated area and cereal production. The study suggests that improved cereal crop varieties ought to be developed and introduced to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change in China. This will help to circumvent Huang et al.'s (2017) prediction of a decline in the total food self-sufficiency of China from 94.5% in 2015 to about 91% by 2025.}, }
@article {pmid32802765, year = {2020}, author = {Duran-Becerra, B and Hillyer, GC and Cosgrove, A and Basch, CH}, title = {Climate change on YouTube: A potential platform for youth learning.}, journal = {Health promotion perspectives}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {282-286}, pmid = {32802765}, issn = {2228-6497}, abstract = {Background: Climate change is one of the most critical threats to our society. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to describe the content of the most viewed climate change videos on YouTube. Methods: The term "climate change" was used to search on YouTube to garner a sample of the 100most widely-viewed videos. Videos in a language other than English, or considered irrelevant, were excluded. Using a fact sheet from National Aeronautics and Space Administration, content categories were created and successively coded. Results: The mean number of views for the 100 videos evaluated was 231,140.2 views (SD=718, 399.5) and the mean length was 12.1 minutes (SD= 24.1). Most videos were uploaded by a news source (77.0%), included a belief that climate change is happening (77.0%), and mentioned the impact of climate change on the environment (71.0%). Only one-third of the videos mentioned how to prevent climate change (33.0%). More than half focused on a specific environment and, of those, 47.2% specifically focused on cities. Compared to videos that did not focus on a specific environment, the videos with an environmental focus were more often intended for adults (87.3% vs. 53.3%, P≤0.001). Conclusion: This study highlights the need for climate change YouTube videos intended for youth. Targeting youth may lead to engagement of younger generations in climate change discourse and inspire climate action. Further research is needed to determine the effectiveness of YouTube as a platform for educational videos on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32802655, year = {2020}, author = {Brown, C and Meals, C}, title = {Four Ways Plastic Surgeons Can Fight Climate Change.}, journal = {Plastic and reconstructive surgery. Global open}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e2961}, pmid = {32802655}, issn = {2169-7574}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The climate crisis demands that surgeons reduce their environmental impact. Operating rooms are resource-intensive and are often wasteful. This makes them fitting targets for climate-conscious decision making.<br><br>METHODS: We searched for peer-reviewed literature describing how plastic surgeons might positively affect the environment through action in the operating room.<br><br>RESULTS: Several evidence-based, pro-climate practices may be undertaken by plastic surgeons. These strategies may be grouped into 4 types: material, energy, technique, and dissemination. Each strategy is a way to reduce, reuse, recycle, research, or rethink.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Administrative obstacles to greener operating rooms are predictable and surmountable, especially because environmentally minded decisions are likely to save money. We anticipate a surge of environmental consciousness in healthcare. Plastic surgeons, as thought leaders, are well positioned to champion this cause.}, }
@article {pmid32798863, year = {2020}, author = {Gorguner, M and Kavvas, ML}, title = {Modeling impacts of future climate change on reservoir storages and irrigation water demands in a Mediterranean basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {748}, number = {}, pages = {141246}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141246}, pmid = {32798863}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water storage requirements in the Mediterranean region vary in time and are strongly affected by the local geography and climate conditions. The objective of this study is to assess the implications of climate change on the water balance of an agricultural reservoir in a Mediterranean-climate basin in Turkey throughout the 21st century. A monthly dynamic water balance model is developed to simulate the historical and future water availability in the reservoir. The model is driven by the fine-resolution dynamically downscaled climate data from four GCMs from the CMIP5 archive, namely CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5, under two different representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and the hydrologic data projected under the same scenarios. The reservoir outflows, including the reservoir evaporation and downstream irrigation water demands, are also modeled using the projected climate variables. The net irrigation water requirement of the crops in the irrigation system, seasonal evapotranspiration rates, and reservoir evaporation rates are estimated based on the Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration method (FAO-56 Method). The study investigates whether the future water supply in the reservoir will be sufficient to meet the future irrigation water demands for the years from 2017 to 2100. The results show that under all eight modeled climate change projections, statistically significant increasing trends for the annual irrigation water demands are expected throughout the 21st century. Moreover, higher evapotranspiration rates are predicted under the ensemble average of the RCP8.5 projections, compared to those of the RCP4.5 projections. Ultimately, seven out of eight projections projected insufficient reservoir water levels during the 21st century, especially during the irrigation seasons when higher water demands are expected. These impacts indicate the importance of sustainable water resources management in the region to provide irrigation water from reservoirs, and to sustain agricultural productivity under projected water limitations due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32796897, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, Y and Marx, E and Williams, S and Gurung, R and Ogle, S and Horton, R and Bader, D and Paustian, K}, title = {Adaptation in U.S. Corn Belt increases resistance to soil carbon loss with climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {13799}, pmid = {32796897}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Increasing the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) has agronomic benefits and the potential to mitigate climate change. Previous regional predictions of SOC trends under climate change often ignore or do not explicitly consider the effect of crop adaptation (i.e., changing planting dates and varieties). We used the DayCent biogeochemical model to examine the effect of adaptation on SOC for corn and soybean production in the U.S. Corn Belt using climate data from three models. Without adaptation, yields of both corn and soybean tended to decrease and the decomposition of SOC tended to increase leading to a loss of SOC with climate change compared to a baseline scenario with no climate change. With adaptation, the model predicted a substantially higher crop yield. The increase in yields and associated carbon input to the SOC pool counteracted the increased decomposition in the adaptation scenarios, leading to similar SOC stocks under different climate change scenarios. Consequently, we found that crop management adaptation to changing climatic conditions strengthen agroecosystem resistance to SOC loss. However, there are differences spatially in SOC trends. The northern part of the region is likely to gain SOC while the southern part of the region is predicted to lose SOC.}, }
@article {pmid32796753, year = {2020}, author = {Huang, X and Ma, L and Chen, C and Zhou, H and Yao, B and Ma, Z}, title = {Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {32796753}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2018-SF-146;2019QZKK0302//the Chinese Academy of Science (CAS) "Light of West China" Program (2018), "The effect of grazing on grassland productivity in the basin of Qinghai Lake", the Key R&amp;D and Transformation Projects in Qinghai Province and the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientifi/ ; }, abstract = {Sinadoxa corydalifolia is a perennial grass with considerable academic value as a rare species owing to habitat destruction and a narrow distribution. However, its distribution remains unclear. In this study, we predicted the distribution of Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region (the source of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River) under the context of climate change using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable distribution mainly occurred in Yushu County and Nangqian County. The suitable distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia covered 3107 km[2], accounting for 0.57% of the three-river region. The mean diurnal air temperature range (Bio2), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and mean air temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) contributed the most to the distribution model for Sinadoxa corydalifolia, with a cumulative contribution of 81.4%. The highest suitability occurred when air temperature seasonality (Bio4) ranged from 6500 to 6900. The highest suitable mean air temperature of the driest quarter ranged from -5 to 0 °C. The highest suitable mean diurnal temperature (Bio2) ranged from 8.9 to 9.7 °C. In future (2041-2060) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: representative concentration pathway (RCP)26 (6171 km[2]) > RCP45 (6017 km[2]) > RCP80 (4238 km[2]) > RCP60 (2505 km[2]). In future (2061-2080) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: RCP26 (18,299 km[2]) > RCP60 (11,977 km[2]) > RCP45 (10,354 km[2]) > RCP80 (7539 km[2]). In general, the suitable distribution will increase in the future. The distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia will generally be larger under low CO2 concentrations than under high CO2 concentrations. This study will facilitate the development of appropriate conservation measures for Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region.}, }
@article {pmid32795762, year = {2020}, author = {Guo, B and Zang, W and Yang, X and Huang, X and Zhang, R and Wu, H and Yang, L and Wang, Z and Sun, G and Zhang, Y}, title = {Improved evaluation method of the soil wind erosion intensity based on the cloud-AHP model under the stress of global climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {746}, number = {}, pages = {141271}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141271}, pmid = {32795762}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Under the stress of global climate change, soil wind erosion has become a major environmental issue in the Three-River Source Region (TRSR) of China. However, few large-scale studies have been conducted on soil wind erosion owing to the lack of investigational data or complex parameters. Moreover, the uncertainty and randomness in the weight determination process cannot be avoided using the traditional method. Thus, a cloud-analytic hierarchy process (cloud-AHP) model was proposed to construct a wind erosion intensity index model for the TRSR based on seven typical land surface parameters. The following results were obtained. (1) The cloud-AHP model can better eliminate the randomness and uncertainty in the weight determination process. (2) The proposed evaluation method of wind erosion intensity has better applicability in the TRSR with overall accuracy of 93%. (3) The overall wind erosion intensity in this region is moderate. The wind erosion intensity was the largest in the Yangtze River (0.55, moderate erosion) and smallest in the source region of the Lancang River (0.50, mild erosion). (4) Significant differences are observed in the influences of various vegetation types on wind erosion intensity. Bare land exhibits the highest wind erosion intensity, whereas a coniferous forest exhibits the smallest. Moreover, grassland is a key control zone of soil and water conservation because it has the largest spatial heterogeneity of internal erosion intensity. These results can provide data and technical support for preventing and controlling soil erosion and protecting the environment in the region.}, }
@article {pmid32792563, year = {2020}, author = {Tabari, H}, title = {Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {13768}, pmid = {32792563}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify with global warming, which likely increases the intensity of extreme precipitation events and the risk of flooding. The changes, however, often differ from the theorized expectation of increases in water-holding capacity of the atmosphere in the warmer conditions, especially when water availability is limited. Here, the relationships of changes in extreme precipitation and flood intensities for the end of the twenty-first century with spatial and seasonal water availability are quantified. Results show an intensification of extreme precipitation and flood events over all climate regions which increases as water availability increases from wet to dry regions. Similarly, there is an increase in the intensification of extreme precipitation and flood with the seasonal cycle of water availability. The connection between extreme precipitation and flood intensity changes and spatial and seasonal water availability becomes stronger as events become less extreme.}, }
@article {pmid32791512, year = {2020}, author = {Jordan, CJ and Palmer, AA}, title = {ACNP efforts toward reducing climate change.}, journal = {Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology}, volume = {45}, number = {13}, pages = {2137-2138}, pmid = {32791512}, issn = {1740-634X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid32791409, year = {2020}, author = {Yang, H and Dobbie, S and Ramirez-Villegas, J and Chen, B and Qiu, S and Ghosh, S and Challinor, A}, title = {South India projected to be susceptible to high future groundnut failure rates for future climate change and geo-engineered scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {747}, number = {}, pages = {141240}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141240}, pmid = {32791409}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {With an increase in global mean temperature predicted for this century accompanied by more frequent extremes, will farming communities need to brace for increased crop failures and hardship? Solar dimming climate geoengineering has been proposed as a possible solution to combat rising global temperature but what effect will it or other climate related adaptation have on crop failures? We performed a crop modelling study using future climate and geoengineering projections to investigate these questions. Our results indicate that groundnut crop failure rates in Southern India are very sensitive to climate change, and project an increase of approximately a factor of two on average over this century, affecting one out of every two to three years instead of one in every five years. We also project that solar dimming geoengineering will have little impact on reducing these failure rates. In contrast, the projections for the rest of Indian regions show decreasing failure rates of 20-30%. In this research, we indicate why south India is more susceptible than the rest of the country and show that neither Solar dimming geoengineering nor reducing heat or water stress are able to fully counteract the increase in failure rates for this region. Thus our modelling projections indicate the potential for a grountnut crop failure crisis for the South India.}, }
@article {pmid32791326, year = {2020}, author = {Fatorić, S and Egberts, L}, title = {Realising the potential of cultural heritage to achieve climate change actions in the Netherlands.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {274}, number = {}, pages = {111107}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111107}, pmid = {32791326}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Netherlands ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on diverse cultural heritage is gaining scholarly and policy attention, yet little research has been conducted on how can diverse cultural heritage inform decisionmakers and policymakers in achieving climate change actions (i.e., climate change adaptation and mitigation). For this study, we conducted semi-structured interviews with Dutch cultural heritage and environmental or climate change experts (n = 52) and participant observations across the Netherlands to explore the importance of cultural heritage benefits and their relation to climate change actions. We also explored the perceptions of cultural heritage management over time, including the influence of climate policy on heritage practice in the Netherlands. Our findings show that experts perceived a multiplicity of heritage benefits as important in supporting and informing present and future climate change actions. The most salient benefits were informational benefits where diverse cultural heritage is perceived as an important source of knowledge about past societal, economic and environmental developments and changes. Further, heritage management was perceived as constantly changing over time, reflecting the transformative nature of diverse heritage types. Experts agreed that climate policy has already influenced cultural heritage practice in the Netherlands. Lastly, the interrelationships between heritage benefits and management were identified and characterised. This study informs both cultural heritage and climate change research agendas and helps leverage diverse cultural heritage into climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.}, }
@article {pmid32790703, year = {2020}, author = {Naqvi, SAA and Hasis Ul Hassan, R and Wu, W and Shah, AA and Makhdum, MSA and Shah, SAR}, title = {Synergy between adaptations and resilience of livelihood from climate change vulnerability: A group-wise comparison of adapters and non-adapters.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {e0236794}, pmid = {32790703}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Family Characteristics ; Farmers/*psychology ; Humans ; Income ; Pakistan ; Poverty ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {The similarities, differences, and contradictions regarding climate change adaptation and resilience by academics and practitioners have already been documented. It is the need of time to set new precedence by observing the adaptations and resilience as tools to respond to the climate variations. This study analyzed the influence of climate change adaptations and synergy between resilience from livelihood vulnerability and adaptations. A field survey of 489 farming households is conducted with the help of a well-structured questionnaire from four districts of the south part of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study uses the Endogenous Switching Regression model for the sake of analysis. The outcomes of the study reveal that age, education, family size, total land, and seed price have significant linkage with the adoption of adaptations. The synergistic effects of adaptation and resilience are also visible here as the adaptations factors are significantly contributing towards yield, per capita income, poverty, and poverty gap of the respondents. This study suggests the provision of proper education and smart technology to help in enhancing the adaptive capacity of farmers. More imperatively, adaptations to climate variations can be concluded as a remedial tool for resilient livelihood. It is believed that the present study can be considered as a guide for future research on other regions of Pakistan and neighboring countries.}, }
@article {pmid32790198, year = {2020}, author = {Thaker, J and Smith, N and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Global Warming Risk Perceptions in India.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {40}, number = {12}, pages = {2481-2497}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13574}, pmid = {32790198}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; India ; Male ; *Perception ; *Risk ; }, abstract = {Few studies have focused on global warming risk perceptions among people in poor and developing countries, who are disproportionately impacted by climate change. This analysis conducts a comprehensive assessment of global warming risk perceptions in India using a national sample survey. Consistent with cultural theory, egalitarianism was positively associated with global warming risk perceptions. In addition, perceived vulnerability and resilience to extreme weather events were also two of the strongest factors associated with global warming risk perceptions. While worry was positively associated with risk perceptions, it accounted for only a small proportion of the variance, unlike studies in developed countries. Finally, the study also collected global warming affective images. The most common responses were "don't know" or "can't say" (25%), followed by "pollution" (21%), "heat" (20%), and "nature" (16%). The study finds that the predictors of global warming risk perceptions among the Indian public are both similar and different than those in developed countries, which has important implications for climate change communication in India.}, }
@article {pmid32789618, year = {2020}, author = {Bates, CK}, title = {From the Editors Desk: Climate Change in Clinic.}, journal = {Journal of general internal medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {10}, pages = {2835}, pmid = {32789618}, issn = {1525-1497}, mesh = {*Ambulatory Care Facilities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32786565, year = {2020}, author = {Hunt, ND and Liebman, M and Thakrar, SK and Hill, JD}, title = {Fossil Energy Use, Climate Change Impacts, and Air Quality-Related Human Health Damages of Conventional and Diversified Cropping Systems in Iowa, USA.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {54}, number = {18}, pages = {11002-11014}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b06929}, pmid = {32786565}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Fossils ; Humans ; Iowa ; }, abstract = {Cropping system diversification can reduce the negative environmental impacts of agricultural production, including soil erosion and nutrient discharge. Less is known about how diversification affects energy use, climate change, and air quality, when considering farm operations and supply chain activities. We conducted a life cycle study using measurements from a nine-year Iowa field experiment to estimate fossil energy (FE) use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, PM2.5-related emissions, human health impacts, and other agronomic and economic metrics of contrasting crop rotation systems and herbicide regimes. Rotation systems consisted of 2-year corn-soybean, 3-year corn-soybean-oat/clover, and 4-year corn-soybean-oat/alfalfa-alfalfa systems. Each was managed with conventional and low-herbicide treatments. FE consumption was 56% and 64% lower in the 3-year and 4-year rotations than in the 2-year rotation, and GHG emissions were 54% and 64% lower. Diversification reduced combined monetized damages from GHG and PM2.5-related emissions by 42% and 57%. Herbicide treatment had no significant impact on environmental outcomes, while corn and soybean yields and whole-rotation economic returns improved significantly under diversification. Results suggest that diversification via shifting from conventional corn-soybean rotations to longer rotations with small grain and forage crops substantially reduced FE use, GHG emissions, and air quality damages, without compromising economic or agronomic performance.}, }
@article {pmid32785968, year = {2020}, author = {Herrera-R, GA and Oberdorff, T and Anderson, EP and Brosse, S and Carvajal-Vallejos, FM and Frederico, RG and Hidalgo, M and Jézéquel, C and Maldonado, M and Maldonado-Ocampo, JA and Ortega, H and Radinger, J and Torrente-Vilara, G and Zuanon, J and Tedesco, PA}, title = {The combined effects of climate change and river fragmentation on the distribution of Andean Amazon fishes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {5509-5523}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15285}, pmid = {32785968}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {16-1607-151053-CSD//MacArthur Foundation/ ; G-1607-151047//MacArthur Foundation/ ; AmazonFish (ELAC2014/DCC-0210)//ERANet-LAC/ ; ANR-10-LABX-41//LABEX TULIP/ ; ODYSSEUS project//BiodivERsA/ ; ANR-10-LABX-25-01//LABEX CEBA/ ; //Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 44842-519-2015//COLCIENCIAS/ ; //EDB Lab/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Fresh Water ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Upstream range shifts of freshwater fishes have been documented in recent years due to ongoing climate change. River fragmentation by dams, presenting physical barriers, can limit the climatically induced spatial redistribution of fishes. Andean freshwater ecosystems in the Neotropical region are expected to be highly affected by these future disturbances. However, proper evaluations are still missing. Combining species distribution models and functional traits of Andean Amazon fishes, coupled with dam locations and climatic projections (2070s), we (a) evaluated the potential impacts of future climate on species ranges, (b) investigated the combined impact of river fragmentation and climate change and (c) tested the relationships between these impacts and species functional traits. Results show that climate change will induce range contraction for most of the Andean Amazon fish species, particularly those inhabiting highlands. Dams are not predicted to greatly limit future range shifts for most species (i.e., the Barrier effect). However, some of these barriers should prevent upstream shifts for a considerable number of species, reducing future potential diversity in some basins. River fragmentation is predicted to act jointly with climate change in promoting a considerable decrease in the probability of species to persist in the long-term because of splitting species ranges in smaller fragments (i.e., the Isolation effect). Benthic and fast-flowing water adapted species with hydrodynamic bodies are significantly associated with severe range contractions from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32783853, year = {2020}, author = {Zhu, Y and Zheng, S and Reygondeau, G and Zhang, Z and Chu, J and Hong, X and Wang, Y and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Modelling spatiotemporal trends in range shifts of marine commercial fish species driven by climate change surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {737}, number = {}, pages = {140258}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140258}, pmid = {32783853}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Euphausiacea ; Fishes ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, the relationships between species distributional shifts and climate change have been investigated at various geographic scales, yet there is still a gap in understanding the impacts of climate change on marine commercial fish species surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula. The dynamic bioclimate envelope model (DBEM) is a mechanistic model that encompass species distribution model and population dynamic model approaches to project the spatiotemporal change of marine commercial fish species driven by various climate change scenarios in the Southern Ocean. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal changes of marine commercial fish species surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) from 1970 to 2060 following three different Earth System Models (ESMs), namely, the GFDL-ESM 2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MPI-ESM-MR. Results reveal that: i) The general latitudinal gradient patterns in species richness shifts poleward associated with a global abundance decrease ii) The Spp. richness in Eastern Antarctic Peninsula (EAP) is higher than in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) at the same latitude (>65°S latitude). iii) The reasons are that the krill-dependent predators in WAP could face a higher risk of depletion than that in EAP due to ocean warming and anthropogenic activities.}, }
@article {pmid32783089, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, Y and Yu, K and Chen, X and Wang, W and Huang, X and Wang, Y and Liao, Z}, title = {An approach for assessing ecosystem-based adaptation in coral reefs at relatively high latitudes to climate change and human pressure.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {9}, pages = {579}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08534-5}, pmid = {32783089}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {AD17129063//Guangxi scientific project/ ; AA17204074//Guangxi scientific project/ ; 41306100//National Science Foundation of China/ ; XGZ160281//Scientific Research Foundation of Guangxi University/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; China ; Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Relatively high-latitude waters are supposed as a refuge for corals under ocean warming. A systematic assessment of the Weizhou Island reef in the northern South China Sea, a relatively high-latitude region, shows that the ecosystem restoration index decreased from 0.96 to 0.62 during the period between 1990 and 2015. Although the biotic community, supporting services, and regulating services remained at good or very good states, the provisioning services, cultural services, and especially habitat structure deteriorated to very poor or moderate states. Gray relational analysis showed that these ecological declines exhibited a strong relationship with human pressures from tourism activities and the petrochemical industry. The recoveries of the biotic community and supporting services that benefited from wintertime warming appeared to be partly offset by intensive human pressures. The long-term effects on ecosystem structure and functions suggest that anthropogenic disturbances have impaired the possibility of this area serving as a potential thermal refuge for reef-building corals in the South China Sea. This study thus provides an integrated approach for assessing the adaptive responses of coral reef ecosystems to climate change and local human activities.}, }
@article {pmid32781413, year = {2020}, author = {Mah, AYJ and Chapman, DA and Markowitz, EM and Lickel, B}, title = {Coping with climate change: Three insights for research, intervention, and communication to promote adaptive coping to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {75}, number = {}, pages = {102282}, doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102282}, pmid = {32781413}, issn = {1873-7897}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Problem Solving ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a major threat to human well-being and will be the root cause of a variety of stressors in coming decades. Psychologists have an important role to play in developing interventions and communication strategies to help people understand and cope with climate change impacts. Through a review of the literature, we identify three guiding insights for strategies to promote adaptive coping and resilience to climate change stress. First, it is unlikely that one single "correct" or "best" way of communicating about adaptive coping with climate change exists, but there are established best practices communicators can follow. Second, in implementing these best practices, practitioners must attend to the impact of variability in the nature of different kinds of stress caused by climate change, as well as individual differences in how people chronically respond to stressors. Third, because individuals, communities, and ecosystems are interconnected, work on adaptive coping to climate change must address individual coping in the context of community and ecosystem resilience. These insights from psychological science can be leveraged to promote human flourishing despite increasing stressors posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32779793, year = {2020}, author = {Fairweather, V and Hertig, E and Traidl-Hoffmann, C}, title = {A brief introduction to climate change and health.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {75}, number = {9}, pages = {2352-2354}, doi = {10.1111/all.14511}, pmid = {32779793}, issn = {1398-9995}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Food Hypersensitivity ; Humans ; *Peanut Hypersensitivity ; }, }
@article {pmid32778666, year = {2020}, author = {Storlazzi, CD and Cheriton, OM and van Hooidonk, R and Zhao, Z and Brainard, R}, title = {Internal tides can provide thermal refugia that will buffer some coral reefs from future global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {13435}, pmid = {32778666}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Observations show ocean temperatures are rising due to climate change, resulting in a fivefold increase in the incidence of regional-scale coral bleaching events since the 1980s; analyses based on global climate models forecast bleaching will become an annual event for most of the world's coral reefs within 30-50 yr. Internal waves at tidal frequencies can regularly flush reefs with cooler waters, buffering the thermal stress from rising sea-surface temperatures. Here we present the first global maps of the effects these processes have on bleaching projections for three IPCC-AR5 emissions scenarios. Incorporating semidiurnal temperature fluctuations into the projected water temperatures at depth creates a delay in the timing of annual severe bleaching ≥ 10 yr (≥ 20 yr) for 38% (9%), 15% (1%), and 1% (0%) of coral reef sites for the low, moderate, and high emission scenarios, respectively; regional averages can reach twice as high. These cooling effects are greatest later in twenty-first century for the moderate emission scenarios, and around the middle twenty-first century for the highest emission scenario. Our results demonstrate how these effects could delay bleaching for corals, providing thermal refugia. Identification of such areas could be a factor for the selection of coral reef marine protected areas.}, }
@article {pmid32775961, year = {2018}, author = {Asiedu, B and Malcolm, D and Iddrisu, S}, title = {Assessing the economic impact of climate change in the small-scale aquaculture industry of Ghana, West Africa.}, journal = {AAS open research}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {26}, pmid = {32775961}, issn = {2515-9321}, abstract = {Background: Aquaculture in Ghana is very profitable, but faces sustainability challenges. This paper assessed the impact pathways by which climate change affects the production and profitability of small-scale aquaculture in Ghana. The study analyzed and compared the economic value of smallholder fish farms with and without the incidence of climatic parameters. Methods: Simple random sampling and purposive sampling techniques were used to select the study area and farms. A total of 30 farmers were interviewed using a questionnaire-based interview. Additionally, using document analysis, observation, and data on farms' production input and output values, the economic impact of climate change on fish farms was assessed. Results: Extreme temperatures, erratic rainfall, floods, drought, storm and erosion are prevalent in fish farms. Available data shows a decrease of 53.4% of small-scale revenue, a 6.9% reduction in small-scale aquaculture value from GH¢ 83,000 to GH¢ 120,000 reducing fish supply by 25%. The findings indicate that the profitability, economic value, and livelihoods of the small-scale aquaculture industry is greatly affected by changes in climate. The incidence of floods, drought, erratic rainfall, erosion, and extreme temperature synergistically induce poverty. The implication on the livelihoods of fish farming households is very alarming and poses a serious threat to food security in the country. Conclusion: Based on the findings, this study concludes that; floods, rainfall temperature, and drought are the major climatic factors affecting the profitability and sustainability of the pond aquaculture industry. The preliminary recommendation is that there is an urgent need to map out flood-free zones close to perennial water bodies to overcome floods and droughts. Planting trees around ponds to create a micro-ecologies ideal for fish culture and also the construction of water storage facilities and proper dyke design would overcome drought and erosion issues. The adaptive capacity of fish-farmers must be built.}, }
@article {pmid32777713, year = {2020}, author = {Pincebourde, S and Woods, HA}, title = {There is plenty of room at the bottom: microclimates drive insect vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {63-70}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2020.07.001}, pmid = {32777713}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Insecta/*physiology ; *Microclimate ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate warming impacts biological systems profoundly. Climatologists deliver predictions about warming amplitude at coarse scales. Nevertheless, insects are small, and it remains unclear how much of the warming at coarse scales appears in the microclimates where they live. We propose a simple method for determining the pertinent spatial scale of insect microclimates. Recent studies have quantified the ability of forest understory to buffer thermal extremes, but these microclimates typically are characterized at spatial scales much larger than those determined by our method. Indeed, recent evidence supports the idea that insects can be thermally adapted even to fine scale microclimatic patterns, which can be highly variable. Finally, we discuss how microhabitat surfaces may buffer or magnify the amplitude of climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid32777515, year = {2020}, author = {Pasquini, L and van Aardenne, L and Godsmark, CN and Lee, J and Jack, C}, title = {Emerging climate change-related public health challenges in Africa: A case study of the heat-health vulnerability of informal settlement residents in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {747}, number = {}, pages = {141355}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141355}, pmid = {32777515}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Public Health ; Tanzania ; }, abstract = {Heat has the potential to become one of the most significant public health impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Increases in temperature have been linked to both increasing mortality and morbidity. Cities have been recognized as areas of particular vulnerability to heat's impacts on health, and marginalized groups, such as the poor, appear to have higher heat-related morbidity and mortality. Little research has examined the heat vulnerability of urban informal settlements residents in Africa, even though surface temperatures across Africa are projected to increase at a rate faster than the global average. This paper addresses this knowledge gap through a mixed-methods analysis of the heat-health vulnerability of informal settlement residents in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The heat exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of informal settlement residents were assessed through a combination of climate analyses, semi-structured interviews with local government actors and informal settlement residents, unstructured interviews with health sector respondents, a health impacts literature review, and a stakeholder engagement workshop. The results suggest that increasing temperatures due to climate change will likely be a significant risk to human health in Dar es Salaam, even though the city does not reach extreme temperature conditions, because informal settlement residents have high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity to heat, and because the heat-health relationship is currently an under-prioritized policy issue. While numerous urban planning approaches can play a key role in increasing the resilience of citizens to heat, Dar es Salaam's past and current growth and development patterns greatly complicate the implementation and enforcement of such approaches. For African cities, the findings highlight an urgent need for more research on the vulnerability and resilience of residents to heat-health impacts, because many African cities are likely to present similar characteristics to those in Dar es Salaam that increase resident's vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid32777500, year = {2020}, author = {Gmitrowicz-Iwan, J and Ligęza, S and Pranagal, J and Kołodziej, B and Smal, H}, title = {Can climate change transform non-toxic sediments into toxic soils?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {747}, number = {}, pages = {141201}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141201}, pmid = {32777500}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Geologic Sediments ; *Metals, Heavy/analysis/toxicity ; Rivers ; Soil ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis/toxicity ; }, abstract = {Our work addresses a neglected aspect of heavy metal (HM) pollution of sediments in small floodplain reservoirs. Very little is known about this type of water bodies, in contrast to oxbow lakes or old river beds. The study examines the spatial horizontal distribution of HM and the effect of texture, organic carbon (OC) content, morphometric and location features on HM concentrations. Moreover, the data from the assessment of sediment toxicity were analysed with respect to recent years' droughts to estimate the potential toxicity of sediments as soils. The statistical analyses showed that the texture and the OC content had a significant impact on the HM concentrations. Fine-grained and OC-rich sediments exhibited higher HM pollution. Only one morphometric/location factor was shown to affect HM levels in sediments - the angle between the reservoir axis and the riverbed. The angle value affected the texture and, consequently, the HM content: with a rising angle the share of the coarse-grained fraction increased leading to a decrease in the HM concentration. The spatial horizontal HM distribution did not show statistically significant results, nonetheless, HM content was found to rise along with the distance from the initial part of reservoir. The toxicity levels were not exceeded in sediments, however, the evaluation of the material as soil showed that, according to European Union guidelines, the content of at least one HM was toxic in 80% of the samples. Contaminated floodplain reservoirs should be regarded as a double threat to riverine ecosystems. On the one hand, they are one of the main non-point sources of river valley pollution; on the other hand, given the drying up of reservoirs, sediments become soils and the soil-bound heavy metals become more toxic to the environment.}, }
@article {pmid32777205, year = {2020}, author = {Zavaleta-Cortijo, C and Ford, JD and Arotoma-Rojas, I and Lwasa, S and Lancha-Rucoba, G and García, PJ and Miranda, JJ and Namanya, DB and New, M and Wright, CJ and Berrang-Ford, L and ,  and Harper, SL}, title = {Climate change and COVID-19: reinforcing Indigenous food systems.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {e381-e382}, pmid = {32777205}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {P20 CA217231/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; HHSN268200900033C/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; R21 TW009982/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; U01 HL114180/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; U19 MH098780/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; /WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; D71 TW010877/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; UM1 HL134590/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; MR/P024408/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Alaska Natives ; *Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/virology ; *Food Supply/economics/standards/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Indians, South American ; *Indigenous Peoples ; Inuit ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/virology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid32775750, year = {2020}, author = {Sintayehu, DW and Dalle, G and Bobasa, AF}, title = {Impacts of climate change on current and future invasion of Prosopis juliflora in Ethiopia: environmental and socio-economic implications.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {e04596}, pmid = {32775750}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Prosopis juliflora is a serious invader, causing great ecological and economic damage in Ethiopia. Thus, it is imperative to examine potential invasion dynamics of P. juliflora at national level under climate change scenario to better influence decision making processes on the management of this invasive species. We derived a consensus model from five modeling approaches to examine the current and future (2050 and 2070) climatic suitability for P. juliflora under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Ethiopia. Under the current climatic scenario, 94.8% of the country was non-suitable for P. juliflora establishment and invasion while 0.4% (4.56 million ha) was highly suitable. In 2050, highly suitable area for P. juliflora is expected to increase by 55.6% and 63.6%, while moderately suitable area is projected to increase by 33.3% and 42.9% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Compared to the current climatic condition, in 2070, highly suitable area for the species is projected to increase by 73.3% (3.43 million ha) and 80.0% (3.65 million ha) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. With the current cover, this invasive species had already caused significant impact on rangelands in many parts of the country. Its further expansion would worsen the problem, leading to great environmental and economic damage, thereby threatening the livelihood of the community. Negative environmental and economical impacts caused by the species will be high if preventive and effective management measures are not earnestly taken, and it becomes one of the major challenges for the 21[st] century pastoralism and their livelihoods. We recommend a national effort be organized towards combating P. juliflora expansion to new areas, especially in regions and protected area predicted as frontiers of potential expansion.}, }
@article {pmid32775711, year = {2020}, author = {Kumar, A and Yadav, J and Mohan, R}, title = {Global warming leading to alarming recession of the Arctic sea-ice cover: Insights from remote sensing observations and model reanalysis.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {7}, pages = {e04355}, pmid = {32775711}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The present study quantifies the magnitude of Arctic sea-ice loss in the boreal summer (July-September), especially in September at different timescales (daily, monthly, annual and decadal). The investigation on the accelerated decline in the Arctic sea-ice was performed using different datasets of passive microwave satellite imagery and model reanalysis. Arctic sea-ice declined rapidly in the boreal summer (-10.2 ± 0.8 %decade[-1]) during 1979-2018, while, the highest decline in sea-ice extent (SIE) (i.e., 82,300 km[2] yr[-1]/-12.8 ± 1.1 %decade[-1]) is reported in the month of September. Since late 1979, the SIE recorded the sixth-lowest decline during September 2018 (4.71 million km[2]). Incidentally, the records of twelve lowest extents in the satellite era occurred in the last twelve years. The loss of SIE and sea-ice concentration (SIC) are attributed to the impacts of land-ocean warming and the northward heat advection into the Arctic Ocean. This has resulted in considerable thinning of sea-ice thickness (SIT) and reduction in the multiyear ice (MYI) for summer 2018. Global and Arctic land-ocean temperatures have increased by ~0.78 °C and ~3.1 °C, respectively, over the past 40 years (1979-2018) while substantial warming rates have been identified in the Arctic Ocean (~3.5 °C in the last 40-year) relative to the Arctic land (~2.8 °C in the last 40-year). The prevailing ocean-atmospheric warming in the Arctic, the SIE, SIC and SIT have reduced, resulting in the decline of the sea-ice volume (SIV) at the rate of -3.0 ± 0.2 (1000 km[3] decade[-1]). Further, it observed that the SIV in September 2018 was three times lower than September 1979. The present study demonstrates the linkages of sea-ice dynamics to ice drifting and accelerated melting due to persistent low pressure, high air-ocean temperatures, supplemented by the coupled ocean-atmospheric forcing.}, }
@article {pmid32773842, year = {2020}, author = {Entwisle, B and Verdery, A and Williams, N}, title = {Climate Change and Migration: New Insights from a Dynamic Model of Out-Migration and Return Migration.}, journal = {AJS; American journal of sociology}, volume = {125}, number = {6}, pages = {1469-1512}, pmid = {32773842}, issn = {0002-9602}, support = {P2C HD050924/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {In popular accounts, stories of environmental refugees convey a bleak picture of the impacts of climate change on migration. Scholarly research is less conclusive, with studies finding varying effects. This paper uses an agent-based model (ABM) of land use, social networks, and household dynamics to examine how extreme floods and droughts affect migration in Northeast Thailand. The ABM explicitly models the dynamic and interactive pathways through which climate-migration relationships might operate, including coupled out and return streams. Results suggest minimal effects on out-migration but marked negative effects on return. Social networks play a pivotal role in producing these patterns. In all, the portrait of climate change and migration painted by focusing only on environmental refugees is too simple. Climate change operates on already established migration processes that are part and parcel of the life course, embedded in dynamic social networks, and incorporated in larger interactive systems where out- and return migration are integrally connected.}, }
@article {pmid32771365, year = {2020}, author = {Rodrigues, M and Santana, P and Rocha, A}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts on attributable-related deaths and demographic changes in the largest metropolitan area in Portugal: A time-series analysis.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {190}, number = {}, pages = {109998}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109998}, pmid = {32771365}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Demography ; *Extreme Heat ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mortality ; Portugal/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Previous studies have consistently analyzed the impact that extreme temperatures will have on human health. However, there are very few data on temperature-related mortality burden considering future demographic changes in a context of climate change in Portugal. This study aims to quantify the impact of climate change on heat-, cold-, and net change mortality burdens, taking into account the future demographic changes in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal. We applied a time-series generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson model via a distributed lag nonlinear model to project temperature-related mortality burden for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986-2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046-2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that the total attributable fraction due to temperature, extreme and moderate cold, is statistically significant in the historical period and the future projected scenarios, while extreme and moderate heat were only significant in the projected future summer period. Net differences were attributed to moderate cold in the future winter months. Projections show a consistent and significant increase in future heat-related mortality burden. The attributable fraction due to heat in the future period, compared to the historical period, ranges from 0 to 1.5% for moderate heat and from 0 to 0.5% for extreme heat. Adaptation should be implemented at the local level, so as to prevent and diminish the effects on citizens and healthcare services, in a context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32770933, year = {2020}, author = {Godfrey, LR and Samonds, KE and Baldwin, JW and Sutherland, MR and Kamilar, JM and Allfisher, KL}, title = {Mid-Cenozoic climate change, extinction, and faunal turnover in Madagascar, and their bearing on the evolution of lemurs.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {97}, pmid = {32770933}, issn = {1471-2148}, support = {BCS 1750598//National Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Fossils ; Lemur/*classification ; Madagascar ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Was there a mid-Cenozoic vertebrate extinction and recovery event in Madagascar and, if so, what are its implications for the evolution of lemurs? The near lack of an early and mid-Cenozoic fossil record on Madagascar has inhibited direct testing of any such hypotheses. We compare the terrestrial vertebrate fauna of Madagascar in the Holocene to that of early Cenozoic continental Africa to shed light on the probability of a major mid-Cenozoic lemur extinction event, followed by an "adaptive radiation" or recovery. We also use multiple analytic approaches to test competing models of lemur diversification and the null hypothesis that no unusual mid-Cenozoic extinction of lemurs occurred.<br><br>RESULTS: Comparisons of the terrestrial vertebrate faunas of the early Cenozoic on continental Africa and Holocene on Madagascar support the inference that Madagascar suffered a major mid-Cenozoic extinction event. Evolutionary modeling offers some corroboration, although the level of support varies by phylogeny and model used. Using the lemur phylogeny and divergence dates generated by Kistler and colleagues, RPANDA and TESS offer moderate support for the occurrence of unusual extinction at or near the Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) boundary (34&#x2009;Ma). TreePar, operating under the condition of obligate mass extinction, found peak diversification at 31&#x2009;Ma, and low probability of survival of prior lineages. Extinction at the E-O boundary received greater support than other candidate extinctions or the null hypothesis of no major extinction. Using the lemur phylogeny and divergence dates generated by Herrera &amp; D&#xe0;valos, evidence for large-scale extinction diminishes and its most likely timing shifts to before 40&#x2009;Ma, which fails to conform to global expectations.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: While support for large-scale mid-Cenozoic lemur extinction on Madagascar based on phylogenetic modeling is inconclusive, the African fossil record does provide indirect support. Furthermore, a major extinction and recovery of lemuriforms during the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) would coincide with other major vertebrate extinctions in North America, Europe, and Africa. It would suggest that Madagascar's lemurs were impacted by the climate shift from "greenhouse" to "ice-house" conditions that occurred at that time. This could, in turn, help to explain some of the peculiar characteristics of the lemuriform clade.}, }
@article {pmid32768913, year = {2021}, author = {Akamatsu, F and Okuda, M and Fujii, T}, title = {Corrigendum to "Long-term responses to climate change of the carbon and oxygen stable isotopic compositions and gelatinization temperature of rice" [Food Chem. 315 (2020) 126239].}, journal = {Food chemistry}, volume = {336}, number = {}, pages = {127727}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodchem.2020.127727}, pmid = {32768913}, issn = {1873-7072}, }
@article {pmid32767753, year = {2021}, author = {Chamberlain, CJ and Cook, BI and Morales-Castilla, I and Wolkovich, EM}, title = {Climate change reshapes the drivers of false spring risk across European trees.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {229}, number = {1}, pages = {323-334}, doi = {10.1111/nph.16851}, pmid = {32767753}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Europe ; *Fagus ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Temperate forests are shaped by late spring freezes after budburst - false springs - which may shift with climate change. Research to date has generated conflicting results, potentially because few studies focus on the multiple underlying drivers of false spring risk. Here, we assessed the effects of mean spring temperature, distance from the coast, elevation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using PEP725 leafout data for six tree species across 11 648 sites in Europe, to determine which were the strongest predictors of false spring risk and how these predictors shifted with climate change. All predictors influenced false spring risk before recent warming, but their effects have shifted in both magnitude and direction with warming. These shifts have potentially magnified the variation in false spring risk among species with an increase in risk for early-leafout species (i.e. Aesculus hippocastanum, Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula) compared with a decline or no change in risk among late-leafout species (i.e. Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur). Our results show how climate change has reshaped the drivers of false spring risk, complicating forecasts of future false springs, and potentially reshaping plant community dynamics given uneven shifts in risk across species.}, }
@article {pmid32765541, year = {2020}, author = {Pourkheirandish, M and Golicz, AA and Bhalla, PL and Singh, MB}, title = {Global Role of Crop Genomics in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {922}, pmid = {32765541}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The development of climate change resilient crops is necessary if we are to meet the challenge of feeding the growing world's population. We must be able to increase food production despite the projected decrease in arable land and unpredictable environmental conditions. This review summarizes the technological and conceptual advances that have the potential to transform plant breeding, help overcome the challenges of climate change, and initiate the next plant breeding revolution. Recent developments in genomics in combination with high-throughput and precision phenotyping facilitate the identification of genes controlling critical agronomic traits. The discovery of these genes can now be paired with genome editing techniques to rapidly develop climate change resilient crops, including plants with better biotic and abiotic stress tolerance and enhanced nutritional value. Utilizing the genetic potential of crop wild relatives (CWRs) enables the domestication of new species and the generation of synthetic polyploids. The high-quality crop plant genome assemblies and annotations provide new, exciting research targets, including long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) and cis-regulatory regions. Metagenomic studies give insights into plant-microbiome interactions and guide selection of optimal soils for plant cultivation. Together, all these advances will allow breeders to produce improved, resilient crops in relatively short timeframes meeting the demands of the growing population and changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid32765360, year = {2020}, author = {Gregersen, T and Doran, R and Böhm, G and Tvinnereim, E and Poortinga, W}, title = {Political Orientation Moderates the Relationship Between Climate Change Beliefs and Worry About Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1573}, pmid = {32765360}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Public perceptions are well established as a key factor in support for climate change mitigation policies, and they tend to vary both within and between countries. Based on data from the European Social Survey Round 8 (N = 44,387), we examined the role of climate change beliefs and political orientation in explaining worry about climate change across 23 countries. We show that belief in anthropogenic climate change, followed by expectations of negative impacts from climate change, are the strongest predictors of worry about climate change. While the strength of the association between political orientation and worry about climate change varies across countries, self-positioning further to the right of the political spectrum is associated with lower levels of worry in most of the countries included in the analysis. We further show that political orientation moderates the relationship between climate change beliefs and worry. While increased confidence in the anthropogenic nature of climate change and expectations of negative impacts are both associated with increased worry across the political spectrum, the relationship is weaker among right-leaning as compared to left-leaning individuals. Notably, the main effect of political orientation on worry about climate change is no longer statistically significant when the interaction terms are present. Finally, a relatively small amount of the explained variance in worry is attributable to differences between countries. The findings might inform strategies for climate change communication in a European context.}, }
@article {pmid32764646, year = {2020}, author = {Sandi, SG and Rodriguez, JF and Saintilan, N and Wen, L and Kuczera, G and Riccardi, G and Saco, PM}, title = {Resilience to drought of dryland wetlands threatened by climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {13232}, pmid = {32764646}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Dryland wetlands are resilient ecosystems that can adapt to extreme periodic drought-flood episodes. Climate change projections show increased drought severity in drylands that could compromise wetland resilience and reduce important habitat services. These recognized risks have been difficult to evaluate due to our limited capacity to establish comprehensive relationships between flood-drought episodes and vegetation responses at the relevant spatiotemporal scales. We address this issue by integrating detailed spatiotemporal flood-drought simulations with remotely sensed vegetation responses to water regimes in a dryland wetland known for its highly variable inundation. We show that a combination of drought tolerance and dormancy strategies allow wetland vegetation to recover after droughts and recolonize areas invaded by terrestrial species. However, climate change scenarios show widespread degradation during drought and limited recovery after floods. Importantly, the combination of degradation extent and increase in drought duration is critical for the habitat services wetland systems provide for waterbirds and fish.}, }
@article {pmid32764540, year = {2020}, author = {Hari, V and Rakovec, O and Markonis, Y and Hanel, M and Kumar, R}, title = {Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018-2019 Central European drought under global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {12207}, pmid = {32764540}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Since the spring 2018, a large part of Europe has been in the midst of a record-setting drought. Using long-term observations, we demonstrate that the occurrence of the 2018-2019 (consecutive) summer drought is unprecedented in the last 250 years, and its combined impact on the growing season vegetation activities is stronger compared to the 2003 European drought. Using a suite of climate model simulation outputs, we underpin the role of anthropogenic warming on exacerbating the future risk of such a consecutive drought event. Under the highest Representative Concentration Pathway, (RCP 8.5), we notice a seven-fold increase in the occurrence of the consecutive droughts, with additional 40 ([Formula: see text]) million ha of cultivated areas being affected by such droughts, during the second half of the twenty-first century. The occurrence is significantly reduced under low and medium scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), suggesting that an effective mitigation strategy could aid in reducing the risk of future consecutive droughts.}, }
@article {pmid32763650, year = {2020}, author = {Arrizabalaga-Arriazu, M and Morales, F and Irigoyen, JJ and Hilbert, G and Pascual, I}, title = {Growth performance and carbon partitioning of grapevine Tempranillo clones under simulated climate change scenarios: Elevated CO2 and temperature.}, journal = {Journal of plant physiology}, volume = {252}, number = {}, pages = {153226}, doi = {10.1016/j.jplph.2020.153226}, pmid = {32763650}, issn = {1618-1328}, mesh = {Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; *Hot Temperature ; Vitis/growth &amp; development/metabolism/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Atmospheric CO2 levels and global temperatures are expected to rise in the next decades, and viticulture must face these changes. Within this context, exploiting the intra-varietal diversity of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) can be a useful tool for the adaptation of this crop to climate change. The aim of the present work was to study the effect of elevated temperature and elevated levels of atmospheric CO2, both individually and combined, on the growth, phenology and carbon partitioning of five clones of the cultivar Tempranillo (RJ43, CL306, T3, VN31 and 1084). The hypothesis that clones within the same variety that differ in their phenological development may respond in a different manner to the above mentioned environmental factors from a physiological point of view was tested. Grapevine fruit-bearing cuttings were grown from fruit set to maturity under two temperature regimes: ambient (T) vs elevated (ambient + 4°C, T + 4), combined with two CO2 levels: ambient (ca. 400 ppm, ACO2) vs elevated (700 ppm, ECO2), in temperature-gradient greenhouses (TGGs). Considering all the clones, elevated temperature hastened grape development and increased vegetative growth, but reduced grape production, the later most likely associated with the heat waves recorded during the experiment. Plants in the elevated CO2 treatments showed a higher photosynthetic activity at veraison and an increased vegetative growth, but they showed signs of photosynthetic acclimation to ECO2 at maturity according to the C:N ratio, especially when combined with high temperature. The combination of ECO2 and T + 4, mimicking climate change environmental conditions, showed additive effects in some of the parameters analyzed. The clones showed differences in their phenological development, which conditioned some responses to elevated CO2 and temperature in terms of vegetative production and C partitioning into different organs. The work adds new knowledge on the use of different grapevine clones, that can be useful to improve the viticultural efficiency in future climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid32762870, year = {2020}, author = {Motta, M}, title = {Could concern about climate change increase demand for a Lyme disease vaccine in the U.S.?.}, journal = {Vaccine}, volume = {38}, number = {40}, pages = {6191-6193}, doi = {10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.07.060}, pmid = {32762870}, issn = {1873-2518}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Lyme Disease/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Lyme Disease Vaccines ; }, }
@article {pmid32761542, year = {2020}, author = {Castleden, H and Lin, J and Darrach, M}, title = {The public health emergency of climate change: how/are Canadian post-secondary public health sciences programs responding?.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {111}, number = {6}, pages = {836-844}, pmid = {32761542}, issn = {1920-7476}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Public Health/education ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently issued a statement that the fate of human society and human health is at serious risk of catastrophic impacts unless we take bold action to keep global warming under 1.5 °C. In 2015, the Canadian Public Health Association noted emerging efforts to embrace intersectoral approaches to global change in public health research and practice. In this study, we question the extent to which Canadian Graduate Public Health Sciences Programs have kept pace with these efforts to see climate change surface as a new frontier for training the next generation of researchers and practitioners.<br><br>METHODS: Semi-structured interviews (19) were conducted with Department Heads (or equivalents) of graduate-level Public Health Sciences Programs at 15 Canadian universities concerning the place of climate change in their respective curricula. Interviews were designed to elicit participants' institutional perspectives on the importance of climate change in the Public Health Sciences and identify perceived challenges and opportunities.<br><br>RESULTS: Despite wide recognition among participants that climate change is a public health "crisis", very few reported having substantive curricular engagement on the topic. Key challenges identified were lack of resources, organizational issues, and political barriers. Key opportunities to adapt curricula to address this new frontier in Public Health were faculty interest and expertise, cross-disciplinary collaboration, and pressure from the institution.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our findings provide evidence for post-secondary Public Health Sciences Programs to understand the need to address their own sluggishness when what is needed are bold, even radical, shifts to existing curricula.}, }
@article {pmid32760561, year = {2020}, author = {Iwabuchi, BL and Gosselin, LA}, title = {Implications of acute temperature and salinity tolerance thresholds for the persistence of intertidal invertebrate populations experiencing climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {14}, pages = {7739-7754}, pmid = {32760561}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {To predict whether populations of marine animals will persist in the face of changing climate conditions, it is informative to understand how past climate conditions have shaped present-day tolerance thresholds. We examined 4 species of intertidal invertebrates (Nucella lamellosa, Littorina scutulata, Littorina sitkana, and Balanus glandula) inhabiting the coasts of Vancouver Island, Canada, where the east coast experiences historically warmer sea surface temperature (SST), warmer low tide (i.e., emersion) rock surface temperature (RST), and lower sea surface salinity (SSS) than the west coast. To determine if east coast populations have higher tolerance thresholds to acute stress than west coast populations, animals from 3 sites per coast were exposed to stressful temperatures and salinities in common garden experiments. Emersion temperature tolerance differed between populations only in N. lamellosa and B. glandula, tolerance thresholds being 1.4-1.5°C higher on the east coast. Water temperature tolerance differed between populations only in B. glandula and L. scutulata but was highest on the west coast. No differences in salinity tolerance were observed within any species. Thus, there is limited evidence of divergence among east and west coast populations in tolerance of acute stress despite the substantial historical differences in extreme temperature and salinity conditions between coasts. However, based on present-day summertime SST and RST and known rates of change in these parameters, we predict present-day tolerance thresholds would be sufficient to allow adults of these populations to tolerate extreme temperatures predicted for the next several hundred years, and that even a slow rate of change in acute tolerance thresholds might suffice to keep up with future temperature extremes.}, }
@article {pmid32759950, year = {2020}, author = {Nisa, CF and Sasin, EM and Faller, DG and Schumpe, BM and Belanger, JJ}, title = {Reply to: Alternative meta-analysis of behavioural interventions to promote action on climate change yields different conclusions.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3901}, pmid = {32759950}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid32759949, year = {2020}, author = {van der Linden, S and Goldberg, MH}, title = {Alternative meta-analysis of behavioral interventions to promote action on climate change yields different conclusions.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3915}, pmid = {32759949}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; }, }
@article {pmid32759880, year = {2020}, author = {Orr, M and Stewart, A and Grundstein, A}, title = {Investigating Connections between Need for Cognitive Closure and Climate Change Concern in College Students.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {32759880}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Anxiety ; *Climate Change ; *Cognition ; Communication ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Personality ; Politics ; *Students/psychology ; }, abstract = {Understanding how people's worldviews and individual personality differences affect their thinking about anthropogenic climate change is critical to communication efforts regarding this issue. This study surveyed University of Georgia students to investigate the role that need for cognitive closure plays in level of climate change worry. The relationship between these two was found to involve suppression-a subset of mediation-by the social dimension of political conservatism. Political conservatism was also found to play a mediating role in the relationship between need for cognitive closure and support for governmental and personal climate solutions. However, social conservatism played this mediator role in women, and functioned as a suppressor for men. These findings help inform audience segmentation and creation of climate-related messages based on audience worldview and personality.}, }
@article {pmid32758966, year = {2020}, author = {Kakarla, SG and Bhimala, KR and Kadiri, MR and Kumaraswamy, S and Mutheneni, SR}, title = {Dengue situation in India: Suitability and transmission potential model for present and projected climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {739}, number = {}, pages = {140336}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140336}, pmid = {32758966}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Aedes ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; India ; }, abstract = {Dengue fever is mosquito borne viral disease caused by dengue virus and transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. In recent years the dengue has spread rapidly to several regions and it becomes a major public health menace globally. Dengue transmission is strongly influenced by environmental factors such as temperature and rainfall. In the present study, a climate driven dengue model was developed and predicted areas vulnerable for dengue transmission under the present and future climate change scenarios in India. The study also projected the dengue distribution risk map using representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in India in 2018-2030 (forthcoming period), 2031-2050 (intermediate period) and 2051-2080 (long period). The dengue cases assessed in India from 1998 to 2018 and found that the dengue transmission is gradually increasing year over year. The temperature data from 1980 to 2017 shows that, the mean temperatures are raising in the Southern region of India. During 2000-2017 periods the dengue transmission is steadily increasing across the India in compare with 1980-1999 periods. The dengue distribution risk is predicted and it is revealed that the coastal states have yearlong transmission possibility, but the high transmission potential is observed throughout the monsoon period. Due to the climate change, the expansion two more months of dengue transmission risk occurs in many regions of India. Both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios revealed that dengue outbreaks might occur at larger volume in Southern, Eastern, and Central regions of India. Furthermore a sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the impact of climate change on dengue transmission. These results helps to suggest appropriate control measures should be implemented to limit the spread in future warmer climates. Besides these, a proper plan is required to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the epidemic potential of dengue in India.}, }
@article {pmid32758947, year = {2020}, author = {Honda, T and Kozakai, C}, title = {Mechanisms of human-black bear conflicts in Japan: In preparation for climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {739}, number = {}, pages = {140028}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140028}, pmid = {32758947}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Humans ; Japan ; Seasons ; *Ursidae ; }, abstract = {Many studies have reported effects of global climate change on wildlife, including changes in species distributions and population sizes but perspectives on interactions between the biosphere and the anthroposphere are limited. Bears have a worldwide range and often come into conflict with humans. We assessed the effects of weather variables including temperature, precipitation, and sunshine on human-bear conflicts. Given that the relationship between climate and bear physiology is poorly understood, we first conducted an exploratory analysis using regression techniques. We then built a final predictive model using generalized linear mixed modelling and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC)-based model selection. Our model highlighted the influence of cold temperatures during denning on the frequency of human-bear conflicts. Cold temperatures during denning are related to increased energy requirements for thermoregulation. It is likely that the resulting increase in demand for food following denning leads to an increase in human-bear conflicts. Our results also indicate that cool springs, lingering winter snowpacks, and hot summers may increase human-bear conflicts due to associated reductions in key food sources.}, }
@article {pmid32758823, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, T and Tang, G and Yuan, Y and Guo, H and Xu, Z and Jiang, G and Chen, X}, title = {Unraveling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on grassland productivity in Central Asia over last three decades.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {743}, number = {}, pages = {140649}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140649}, pmid = {32758823}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) have severely influenced grassland productivity in Central Asia since the 1980s. However, the relative impacts of CC and HA on grassland productivity are not adequately documented, especially over the past three decades. In this study, we adapted the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) to reveal potential timescales at which grassland productivity varied in Central Asia and to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of grassland productivity during 1982-2015. We developed a quantitative method that incorporated the EEMD, along with six scenarios, to disentangle the effects of CC and HA on grassland productivity in Central Asia. Results showed that grassland productivity in Central Asia trended upward significantly at a rate of 0.66 gC m[-2] yr[-1] and was dominated by a 3-year time scale oscillation. The impacts of CC and HA on grassland productivity varied significantly over space and time. CC mainly facilitated grassland productivity restoration, whereas HA decreased grassland productivity in Central Asia. Besides, varied HA in six regions of Central Asia were due to different policy implementations across these regions. In particular, HA in Xinjiang significantly promoted grassland restoration, accounting for 22.5% of the total human-affected area, mostly because of the implementation of the Grazing Withdrawal Program (GWP), while HA significantly accelerated grassland productivity degradation in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan over last three decades. Additionally, HA promoted the restoration of grassland productivity in Kazakhstan in a short period due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, but degraded it at long-term scale. Further, precipitation was found to be the main climatic factor while grazing be the main human factor for controlling grassland productivity variations in Central Asia, respectively. Overall, our study provides not only a novel way of quantifying the impacts of CC and HA on vegetation variations but also new insights into mechanisms mediating grassland productivity in Central Asia.}, }
@article {pmid32758820, year = {2020}, author = {Williamson, TN and Barton, CD}, title = {Hydrologic modeling to examine the influence of the forestry reclamation approach and climate change on mineland hydrology.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {743}, number = {}, pages = {140605}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140605}, pmid = {32758820}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Forests in the Appalachian region of the U.S. are threatened by a variety of short- and long-term pressures, including climate change, invasive species, and resource extraction. Surface mining for coal is one of the most important drivers of land-use change in the region, reducing native forest cover, causing forest fragmentation, eliminating intact soil, and affecting water resources. The Forestry Reclamation Approach (FRA) has been demonstrated as a successful best practice for restoring forests on mine-impacted landscapes, but little information exists on how the practice will affect hydrologic processes. A study was initiated to examine soil-water movement, as in-situ saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat), combined with soil porosity to quantify the potential influence on streamflow of reclaimed mines relative to an unmined, forested control site in eastern Kentucky. We compared different reclamation techniques and time since reclamation to determine the extent to which hydrologic function can be restored. We also simulated evapotranspiration at the watershed scale as a function of reclamation technique for both historical and projected (2050) climate. Results indicate that conventional grassland reclamation critically changes how soil water transitions to streamflow, primarily due to Ksat variability that exceeds that measured for intact and FRA soils. Sites reclaimed using FRA exhibited a soil-water environment that was more similar to the unmined control. However, all reclaimed mine soils were thinner, retained and stored less soil water, and thus could provide less plant-available water during the growing season. The plant-available water stored in reclaimed landscapes may not be sufficient to support forest health and this is exacerbated by projected climate conditions. However, soil development under a combination of FRA techniques has the potential to mitigate this limitation.}, }
@article {pmid32758095, year = {2021}, author = {Pollard, AE and Rowlison, DL and Kohnen, A and McGuffin, K and Geldert, C and Kramer, C and MacDonald, L and Kastendieck, EG and Sekhon, SS and Carpenter, MJ and Duncan, C}, title = {Preparing Veterinarians to Address the Health Impacts of Climate Change: Student Perceptions, Knowledge Gaps, and Opportunities.}, journal = {Journal of veterinary medical education}, volume = {48}, number = {3}, pages = {343-350}, doi = {10.3138/jvme-2019-0080}, pmid = {32758095}, issn = {0748-321X}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Curriculum ; *Education, Veterinary ; Humans ; Perception ; Students ; *Veterinarians ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant and increasing threat to global health. While veterinarians play integral roles in public and environmental health, the profession has been less engaged in the topic of climate change relative to their human medical counterparts. The objective of this study was to synthesize veterinary students' perceptions and knowledge about the relationship between veterinary medicine and climate change to identify educational gaps and opportunities. An online questionnaire was disseminated to American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA)-accredited veterinary colleges through the Student American Veterinary Medical Association newsletter. Respondents were overwhelmingly confident that climate change is happening, is due to human activities, and is impacting both human and animal health. Veterinary students also expressed the belief that veterinarians should take a leadership role on the issue of climate change, especially through promoting environmental sustainability in clinical practice. Despite this enthusiasm, most students reported a lack of educational opportunities within their veterinary programs. The results of this survey highlight opportunities for the development of educational resources on the topic, many of which could complement existing material such as that devoted to practice management, economics, and client communication. Veterinarians have the potential to meaningfully contribute to both mitigation and adaptation efforts around climate change; however, they must be equipped with the tools to do so.}, }
@article {pmid32758001, year = {2020}, author = {Chandra, AK and Pandey, D and Tiwari, A and Sharma, D and Agarwal, A and Sood, S and Kumar, A}, title = {An Omics Study of Iron and Zinc Homeostasis in Finger Millet: Biofortified Foods for Micronutrient Deficiency in an Era of Climate Change?.}, journal = {Omics : a journal of integrative biology}, volume = {24}, number = {12}, pages = {688-705}, doi = {10.1089/omi.2020.0095}, pmid = {32758001}, issn = {1557-8100}, mesh = {Bioengineering ; Biofortification ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Eleusine/*metabolism ; Food ; *Homeostasis ; Iron/*metabolism ; *Metabolomics/methods ; Micronutrients/analysis/deficiency ; Zinc/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The future of food and sustainability of the staple food crops are of utmost importance in the 21st century. Micronutrient deficiency, for example, in iron and zinc, is a common cause of human diseases. Mineral content of the staple food crops has therefore crosscutting importance for food engineering and planetary health. Finger millet, a staple food of agricultural importance worldwide, is rich in iron and zinc, and an ideal model to study the prospects of biofortified foods in times of climate change. We report here a multiomics study of the iron and zinc homeostasis in the finger millet. We identified and characterized 15 candidate genes potentially involved in iron and zinc homeostasis pathways in the finger millet. Structural and functional annotation of the candidate genes revealed a high similarity index with their respective homologs (Oryza sativa, Triticum aestivum, Zea mays, Hordeum vulgare, and Setaria italica). Transcriptome-wide expression analysis showed that genes involved in uptake and translocation of iron and zinc are highly expressed in the GP-1 genotype, while those involved in bioavailability of iron and zinc are expressed more in the GP-45 genotype of the finger millet. In conclusion, finger millet, being a stress-resilient crop, utilizes a combination of strategies in iron and zinc homeostasis pathway, which appear to play an important role in food crop acquisition of iron and zinc, despite environmentally limiting conditions. These data offer molecular insights on iron and zinc accumulation and paves the way for new strategies toward staple food crop with mineral biofortification.}, }
@article {pmid32756604, year = {2020}, author = {, }, title = {Correction: Explaining public understanding of the concepts of climate change, nutrition, poverty and effective medical drugs: An international experimental survey.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {e0237445}, pmid = {32756604}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0234036.].}, }
@article {pmid32755772, year = {2020}, author = {Won, J and Choi, J and Lee, O and Kim, S}, title = {Copula-based Joint Drought Index using SPI and EDDI and its application to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {744}, number = {}, pages = {140701}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140701}, pmid = {32755772}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The drought index, which mainly focuses on the moisture supply side of the atmosphere, which has been mainly used in the field of drought monitoring, has limitations that cannot reflect drought caused by changes in various climate variables such as an increase in surface air temperature due to global warming. To overcome these limitations, various evaporation demand-based drought indices have been proposed, focusing on the aspect of atmospheric moisture demand. However, drought indices that consider only precipitation or the demand for atmospheric evaporation are difficult to comprehensively interpret drought caused by various climatic factors. The novelty of this study is to propose a new drought index to simultaneously monitor droughts occurring in terms of atmospheric moisture supply and demand. The proposed Copula-based Joint Drought Index (CJDI) combines the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Evaporative Demand Drought Index using copula. Since CJDI reflects the correlation between the two drought indices, it is shown that CJDI can better monitor Korea's past droughts than other drought indices. It is found that quantification of past drought using CJDI can be used to objectively recognize the level of drought currently in progress by combining with drought severity-duration-frequency curves derived from partial duration series. As a result of analyzing the future drought pattern in Korea, it was revealed that the drought would be alleviated by about 11% in the case of SPI and SPEI, but the drought would intensify by about 89% in the case of EDDI. In the case of CJDI, it is projected that the drought is likely to intensify to about 17%. From the perspective of better reproducing past droughts and projecting a more convincing future drought than other drought indices, CJDI is expected to be fully utilized as a drought index to monitor droughts and establish climate change adaptation policies.}, }
@article {pmid32751787, year = {2020}, author = {Kougioumoutzis, K and Kokkoris, IP and Panitsa, M and Trigas, P and Strid, A and Dimopoulos, P}, title = {Spatial Phylogenetics, Biogeographical Patterns and Conservation Implications of the Endemic Flora of Crete (Aegean, Greece) under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {32751787}, issn = {2079-7737}, support = {2019-050-0503-17842//State Scholarships Foundation/ ; }, abstract = {Human-induced biodiversity loss has been accelerating since the industrial revolution. The climate change impacts will severely alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns at all scales, leading to biotic homogenization. Due to underfunding, a climate smart, conservation-prioritization scheme is needed to optimize species protection. Spatial phylogenetics enable the identification of endemism centers and provide valuable insights regarding the eco-evolutionary and conservation value, as well as the biogeographical origin of a given area. Many studies exist regarding the conservation prioritization of mainland areas, yet none has assessed how climate change might alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns of an island biodiversity hotspot. Thus, we conducted a phylogenetically informed, conservation prioritization study dealing with the effects of climate change on Crete's plant diversity and biogeographical patterns. Using several macroecological analyses, we identified the current and future endemism centers and assessed the impact of climate change on the biogeographical patterns in Crete. The highlands of Cretan mountains have served as both diversity cradles and museums, due to their stable climate and high topographical heterogeneity, providing important ecosystem services. Historical processes seem to have driven diversification and endemic species distribution in Crete. Due to the changing climate and the subsequent biotic homogenization, Crete's unique bioregionalization, which strongly reminiscent the spatial configuration of the Pliocene/Pleistocene Cretan paleo-islands, will drastically change. The emergence of the 'Anthropocene' era calls for the prioritization of biodiversity-rich areas, serving as mixed-endemism centers, with high overlaps among protected areas and climatic refugia.}, }
@article {pmid32750540, year = {2020}, author = {Wamelink, GWW and Mol-Dijkstra, JP and Reinds, GJ and Voogd, JC and Bonten, LTC and Posch, M and Hennekens, SM and de Vries, W}, title = {Prediction of plant species occurrence as affected by nitrogen deposition and climate change on a European scale.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {266}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {115257}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115257}, pmid = {32750540}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Plants ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Plant species occurrence in Europe is affected by changes in nitrogen deposition and climate. Insight into potential future effects of those changes can be derived by a model approach based on field-based empirical evidence on a continental scale. In this paper, we present a newly developed empirical model PROPS, predicting the occurrence probabilities of plant species in response to a combination of climatic factors, nitrogen deposition and soil properties. Parameters included were temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, soil pH and soil C/N ratio. The PROPS model was fitted to plant species occurrence data of about 800,000 European relevés with estimated values for pH and soil C/N ratio and interpolated climate and modelled N deposition data obtained from the Ensemble meteo data set and EMEP model results, respectively. The model was validated on an independent data set. The test of ten species against field data gave an average Pearson's r-value of 0.79. PROPS was applied to a grassland and a heathland site to evaluate the effect of scenarios for nitrogen deposition and climate change on the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI), being the average of the relative probabilities, compared to the maximum probability, of all target species in a habitat. Results for the period 1930-2050 showed that an initial increase and later decrease in nitrogen deposition led to a pronounced decrease in HSI, and with dropping nitrogen deposition to an increase of the HSI. The effect of climate change appeared to be limited, resulting in a slight increase in HSI.}, }
@article {pmid32748042, year = {2020}, author = {Vanderkelen, I and Zscheischler, J and Gudmundsson, L and Keuler, K and Rineau, F and Beenaerts, N and Vangronsveld, J and Vicca, S and Thiery, W}, title = {Correction to: A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {10}, pages = {1729}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01973-2}, pmid = {32748042}, issn = {1432-1254}, abstract = {The article was published bearing a typographical error to the second author name listed. The author group regret the error and the name should be referenced and credited as Jakob Zscheischler and not the former.}, }
@article {pmid32745275, year = {2020}, author = {González-Del-Pliego, P and Scheffers, BR and Freckleton, RP and Basham, EW and Araújo, MB and Acosta-Galvis, AR and Medina Uribe, CA and Haugaasen, T and Edwards, DP}, title = {Thermal tolerance and the importance of microhabitats for Andean frogs in the context of land use and climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {89}, number = {11}, pages = {2451-2460}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13309}, pmid = {32745275}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anura ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming is having impacts across the Tree of Life. Understanding species' physiological sensitivity to temperature change and how they relate to local temperature variation in their habitats is crucial to determining vulnerability to global warming. We ask how species' vulnerability varies across habitats and elevations, and how climatically buffered microhabitats can contribute to reduce their vulnerability. We measured thermal sensitivity (critical thermal maximum-CTmax) of 14 species of Pristimantis frogs inhabiting young and old secondary, and primary forests in the Colombian Andes. Exposure to temperature stress was measured by recording temperature in the understorey and across five microhabitats. We determined frogs' current vulnerability across habitats, elevations and microhabitats accounting for phylogeny and then ask how vulnerability varies under four warming scenarios: +1.5, +2, +3 and +5°C. We found that CTmax was constant across species regardless of habitat and elevation. However, species in young secondary forests are expected to become more vulnerable because of increased exposure to higher temperatures. Microhabitat variation could enable species to persist within their thermal temperature range as long as regional temperatures do not surpass +2°C. The effectiveness of microhabitat buffering decreases with a 2-3°C increase, and is almost null under a 5°C temperature increase. Microhabitats will provide thermal protection to Andean frog communities from climate change by enabling tracking of suitable climates through short distance movement. Conservation strategies, such as managing landscapes by preserving primary forests and allowing regrowth and reconnection of secondary forest would offer thermally buffered microhabitats and aid in the survival of this group.}, }
@article {pmid32743086, year = {2020}, author = {Gebru, GW and Ichoku, HE and Phil-Eze, PO}, title = {Determinants of smallholder farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change in Eastern Tigray National Regional State of Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {7}, pages = {e04356}, pmid = {32743086}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change has been significantly affecting smallholder farmer's livelihood and food security. However, efforts to support farmer adaptation are hampered by the lack of scientific and context based evidences. Hence, this paper identified the major adaptation strategies to climate change (CC) and analysed the determinants of adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change in Eastern Tigray Region of Ethiopia. Three-stage sampling technique was used to select the study sites and sample households. Copies of 485 questionnaires were administered and complemented with data from focus group discussion and key informant interviews. Results of the descriptive analysis identified that use of soil and water conservation practices, planting trees, improved crop seeds, irrigation and use of non-farm income generating activities are the most utilized adaptation strategies to climate change. Results of the multinomial logistic regression (MNL) revealed that households' adaptation to climate change was found positively and significantly affected by education, livestock holding, cooperatives membership, extension services, farmers income and households perception to climate change. On the contrary, age of the household head, distance to market and agro-ecology were found negatively and statistically affecting smallholder farmers adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change. Thus, public policy on climate change adaptation need to take into account local people's resource base and their lifelong outlooks so as to reduce the potential drawbacks of climate change on farmers' livelihood.}, }
@article {pmid32741054, year = {2020}, author = {Denechaud, C and Smoliński, S and Geffen, AJ and Godiksen, JA and Campana, SE}, title = {A century of fish growth in relation to climate change, population dynamics and exploitation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {5661-5678}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15298}, pmid = {32741054}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {173906-051//Icelandic Research Fund/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; *Gadus morhua ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Marine ecosystems, particularly in high-latitude regions such as the Arctic, have been significantly affected by human activities and contributions to climate change. Evaluating how fish populations responded to past changes in their environment is helpful for evaluating their future patterns, but is often hindered by the lack of long-term biological data available. Using otolith increments of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) as a proxy for individual growth, we developed a century-scale biochronology (1924-2014) based on the measurements of 3,894 fish, which revealed significant variations in cod growth over the last 91 years. We combined mixed-effect modeling and path analysis to relate these growth variations to selected climate, population and fishing-related factors. Cod growth was negatively related to cod population size and positively related to capelin population size, one of the most important prey items. This suggests that density-dependent effects are the main source of growth variability due to competition for resources and cannibalism. Growth was also positively correlated with warming sea temperatures but negatively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting contrasting effects of climate warming at different spatial scales. Fishing pressure had a significant but weak negative direct impact on growth. Additionally, path analysis revealed that the selected growth factors were interrelated. Capelin biomass was positively related to sea temperature and negatively influenced by herring biomass, while cod biomass was mainly driven by fishing mortality. Together, these results give a better understanding of how multiple interacting factors have shaped cod growth throughout a century, both directly and indirectly.}, }
@article {pmid32740923, year = {2020}, author = {Gade, MR and Connette, GM and Crawford, JA and Hocking, DJ and Maerz, JC and Milanovich, JR and Peterman, WE}, title = {Predicted alteration of surface activity as a consequence of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {101}, number = {11}, pages = {e03154}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.3154}, pmid = {32740923}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {//Bruce Family Scholarship in Herpetology Grant-in-Aid from Highlands Biological Station/ ; //Herpetologist's League EE Williams Research Grant/ ; //University of Missouri Life Science Fellowship/ ; //EPA STAR Fellowship/ ; //Charles W. Ash Scholarship from Highlands Biological Station/ ; //GAANN Fellowship from the U.S. Department of Education/ ; //Bruce Family Scholarship in Herpetology from Highlands Biological Station/ ; W203-11//National Geographic Society Waitt Grant Program/ ; DEB-0823293//National Science Foundation Long Term Ecological Research Program to the Coweeta LTER Program at the University of Georgia/ ; DEB-1637522//National Science Foundation Long Term Ecological Research Program to the Coweeta LTER Program at the University of Georgia/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Urodela ; }, abstract = {Wildlife are faced with numerous threats to survival, none more pressing than that of climate change. Understanding how species will respond behaviorally, physiologically, and demographically to a changing climate is a cornerstone of many contemporary ecological studies, especially for organisms, such as amphibians, whose persistence is closely tied to abiotic conditions. Activity is a useful parameter for understanding the effects of climate change because activity is directly linked to fitness as it dictates foraging times, energy budgets, and mating opportunities. However, activity can be challenging to measure directly, especially for secretive organisms like plethodontid salamanders, which only become surface active when conditions are cool and moist because of their anatomical and physiological restrictions. We estimated abiotic predictors of surface activity for the seven species of the Plethodon jordani complex. Five independent data sets collected from 2004 to 2017 were used to determine the parameters driving salamander surface activity in the present day, which were then used to predict potential activity changes over the next 80 yrs. Average active seasonal temperature and vapor pressure deficit were the strongest predictors of salamander surface activity and, without physiological or behavioral modifications, salamanders were predicted to exhibit a higher probability of surface activity during peak active season under future climate conditions. Temperatures during the active season likely do not exceed salamander thermal maxima to cause activity suppression and, until physiological limits are reached, future conditions may continue to increase activity. Our model is the first comprehensive field-based study to assess current and future surface activity probability. Our study provides insights into how a key behavior driving fitness may be affected by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32740833, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, J and Zhi, M}, title = {Effects of basin nutrient discharge variations coupled with climate change on water quality in Lake Erhai, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {35}, pages = {43700-43710}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09179-0}, pmid = {32740833}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Eutrophication ; *Lakes ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Nutrients ; Phosphorus/analysis ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {In Lake Erhai, water quality was affected by the basin nutrient discharge and climate change. To analyze the relationships between the water quality (total nitrogen [TN], total phosphorus [TP], chemical oxygen demand [CODmn], ammonia [NH4], and trophic level index [TLI]) and basin nutrient discharge (TNd, TPd, and CODd) combined with climate changes (air temperature [AT], precipitation [pre], wind speed [wind], and sunshine hours [SHs]), the generalized additive model (GAM) was employed to explore the nonlinear relationships with their interactions using data sets ranging from 1999 to 2012. Our findings revealed that the water quality in Lake Erhai deteriorated in the early twentieth century, and the basin discharge and AT appeared significant (p < 0.05) rising trends in a long time, while the precipitation decreased significantly (p < 0.05) in the study period. Single-factor GAM results indicated that the basin nutrient discharge was the main explanatory factor for the variations of TN and TP in lake, while precipitation was the main driver for CODmn and NH4. Besides, the water quality displayed nonlinear responses to the basin discharge, but all of the water quality variables went up as the emission levels increased in the lower range. The results showed that the water quality deteriorated in the lower rainfall, and TN rose as the AT increases, while TP was elevated accompanied by the ascending SHs there. The GAM interaction results suggested that the increase of AT and TPd had a promoting effect on TP in Lake Erhai. Stricter nutrient management measures should be implemented when the impacts of climate change are taken into account.}, }
@article {pmid32738697, year = {2020}, author = {Ojo, TO and Baiyegunhi, LJS}, title = {Impact of climate change adaptation strategies on rice productivity in South-west, Nigeria: An endogeneity corrected stochastic frontier model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {745}, number = {}, pages = {141151}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141151}, pmid = {32738697}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The study assessed the impact of climate change adaptation strategies on technical efficiency of smallholder rice farmers in South-west Nigeria. An endogeneity corrected stochastic frontier model which account for the endogeneity of adoption of adaptation strategies that is likely to depend on inefficiency was employed for the study. The result of the study revealed that adoption of adaption strategies is endogenously determined with rice productivity and hence, failure to account for endogeneity, the parameter efficiency estimates would be inconsistent. The empirical results from the model show that quantity of labour, herbicides and the interaction of labour with both farm size and insecticides were statistically significant in explaining the variations in the efficiency of rice production in the study area. In addition, the study identified the combined effects of climate change adaptation strategies and some socioeconomic characteristics such as age, gender, education, farming experience, access to credit, access to information, membership of farmers in agricultural based cooperative and location of rice farmers as sources of technical inefficiencies. The study concluded that increase implementation of climate change adaptation strategies could enhance rice productivity and technical efficiency of rice farmers through timely access to climate change information and other related institutional support. Based on farmers' knowledge and understanding of changes in climatic conditions and the adaptation strategies to mitigate its effect, it is therefore important for the government, stakeholders and donor agencies to involve farmers in the climate change adaptation planning process.}, }
@article {pmid32738058, year = {2020}, author = {D'Amato, G and Akdis, CA}, title = {Global warming, climate change, air pollution and allergies.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {75}, number = {9}, pages = {2158-2160}, doi = {10.1111/all.14527}, pmid = {32738058}, issn = {1398-9995}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid32738026, year = {2020}, author = {Masoero, G and Laaksonen, T and Morosinotto, C and Korpimäki, E}, title = {Climate change and perishable food hoards of an avian predator: Is the freezer still working?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {5414-5430}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15250}, pmid = {32738026}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {123379//Academy of Finland/ ; 136717//Academy of Finland/ ; 250709//Academy of Finland/ ; //University Of Turku Graduate School (UTUGS)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Female ; Finland ; Food Chain ; *Hoarding ; Predatory Behavior ; *Strigiformes ; }, abstract = {Changing climate can modify predator-prey interactions and induce declines or local extinctions of species due to reductions in food availability. Species hoarding perishable food for overwinter survival, like predators, are predicted to be particularly susceptible to increasing temperatures. We analysed the influence of autumn and winter weather, and abundance of main prey (voles), on the food-hoarding behaviour of a generalist predator, the Eurasian pygmy owl (Glaucidium passerinum), across 16 years in Finland. Fewer freeze-thaw events in early autumn delayed the initiation of food hoarding. Pygmy owls consumed more hoarded food with more frequent freeze-thaw events and deeper snow cover in autumn and in winter, and lower precipitation in winter. In autumn, the rotting of food hoards increased with precipitation. Hoards already present in early autumn were much more likely to rot than the ones initiated in late autumn. Rotten food hoards were used more in years of low food abundance than in years of high food abundance. Having rotten food hoards in autumn resulted in a lower future recapture probability of female owls. These results indicate that pygmy owls might be partly able to adapt to climate change by delaying food hoarding, but changes in the snow cover, precipitation and frequency of freeze-thaw events might impair their foraging and ultimately decrease local overwinter survival. Long-term trends and future predictions, therefore, suggest that impacts of climate change on wintering food-hoarding species could be substantial, because their 'freezers' may no longer work properly. Altered usability and poorer quality of hoarded food may further modify the foraging needs of food-hoarding predators and thus their overall predation pressure on prey species. This raises concerns about the impacts of climate change on boreal food webs, in which ecological interactions have evolved under cold winter conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32737629, year = {2020}, author = {Sharma, A and Batish, DR and Uniyal, SK}, title = {Documentation and validation of climate change perception of an ethnic community of the western Himalaya.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {8}, pages = {552}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08512-x}, pmid = {32737629}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {GAP 0199//Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change/ ; }, mesh = {Aged ; *Climate Change ; Documentation ; Environmental Monitoring ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Meteorology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The high-altitude regions of Himalaya are among the best indicators of climate change yet noticeable for the lack of climate monitoring stations. However, they support ethnic communities whose livelihood activities are climate driven. Consequently, these communities are keen observers of the same and documenting their perception on changing climate is now an important area of global research. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the prime objective of documenting the climate change perception of Bhangalis-a resident community of western Himalaya, and analyzing variation in their perceptions in relation to age and gender. For this, respondent surveys (household, n = 430; individual interviews, n = 240) were carried out and the collected data were subjected to statistical analyses. The study also validated the perception of Bhangalis using the available weather data (1974-2017) through the Mann-Kendall test. The results reveal that Bhangalis perceived 11 indicators of changing climate, of which decrease in snowfall was the most prominent (reported by ~ 97% of the respondents). The perceptions varied between the two genders with males having significantly higher proportion of responses for all the 11 indicators. Similarly, differences in perception among the age groups were also observed, elderly people reported higher proportion of climate change indicators as compared to respondents of lower age. Notably, patterns of temperature and rainfall perceptions by the Bhangalis agreed with the trends of meteorological data. This highlights the importance of the study in documenting knowledge of ethnic communities especially from areas that lack monitoring stations. It argues for involving them in climate change programs.}, }
@article {pmid32737451, year = {2019}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change made European heatwave up to 3°C hotter.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02384-z}, pmid = {32737451}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32737325, year = {2020}, author = {Liguori, G and McGregor, S and Arblaster, JM and Singh, MS and Meehl, GA}, title = {A joint role for forced and internally-driven variability in the decadal modulation of global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3827}, pmid = {32737325}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Despite the observed monotonic increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, global mean temperature displays important decadal fluctuations typically attributed to both external forcing and internal variability. Here, we provide a robust quantification of the relative contributions of anthropogenic, natural, and internally-driven decadal variability of global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) by using a unique dataset consisting of 30-member large initial-condition ensembles with five Earth System Models (ESM-LE). We present evidence that a large fraction (~29-53%) of the simulated decadal-scale variance in individual timeseries of GMSST over 1950-2010 is externally forced and largely linked to the representation of volcanic aerosols. Comparison with the future (2010-2070) period suggests that external forcing provides a source of additional decadal-scale variability in the historical period. Given the unpredictable nature of future volcanic aerosol forcing, it is suggested that a large portion of decadal GMSST variability might not be predictable.}, }
@article {pmid32737311, year = {2020}, author = {Burrell, AL and Evans, JP and De Kauwe, MG}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change has driven over 5 million km[2] of drylands towards desertification.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3853}, pmid = {32737311}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Drylands cover 41% of the earth's land surface and include 45% of the world's agricultural land. These regions are among the most vulnerable ecosystems to anthropogenic climate and land use change and are under threat of desertification. Understanding the roles of anthropogenic climate change, which includes the CO2 fertilization effect, and land use in driving desertification is essential for effective policy responses but remains poorly quantified with methodological differences resulting in large variations in attribution. Here, we perform the first observation-based attribution study of desertification that accounts for climate change, climate variability, CO2 fertilization as well as both the gradual and rapid ecosystem changes caused by land use. We found that, between 1982 and 2015, 6% of the world's drylands underwent desertification driven by unsustainable land use practices compounded by anthropogenic climate change. Despite an average global greening, anthropogenic climate change has degraded 12.6% (5.43 million km[2]) of drylands, contributing to desertification and affecting 213 million people, 93% of who live in developing economies.}, }
@article {pmid32734542, year = {2020}, author = {Pino-Cortés, E and Carrasco, S and Díaz-Robles, LA and Cubillos, F and Cereceda-Balic, F}, title = {Black and organic carbon fractions in fine particulate matter by sectors in the South Hemisphere emissions for decision-making on climate change and health effects.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {30}, pages = {38344-38352}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-10164-w}, pmid = {32734542}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {21150125//Beca Doctorado Nacional ANID/ ; 1120791//FONDECYT ANID/ ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*analysis ; Carbon/analysis ; Cities ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; }, abstract = {Some databases report global emissions of certain pollutants. Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) project is one of these, which also records emissions by sources. In this study, the emissions of black and organic carbon and fine particulate matter from the EDGAR database were used as an input to process it in the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model. We showed the spatial distribution of the fraction of black and organic carbon in particulate matter from each source in the Southern Hemisphere. Also, we extracted these ratios for several cities in the domain of analysis. The results and methodology of this study could improve the emission inventories with bottom-up methodology in areas without information located at Southern Hemisphere. Also, it could be relevant to obtain better performance in air quality modeling at the local level for decision-making on climate change and health effects.}, }
@article {pmid32734426, year = {2020}, author = {Riquelme, C and Estay, SA and Contreras, R and Corti, P}, title = {Extinction risk assessment of a Patagonian ungulate using population dynamics models under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {11}, pages = {1847-1855}, pmid = {32734426}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {7910012016//Comisi&#xf3;n Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n Cient&#xed;fica y Tecnol&#xf3;gica/ ; FB-002//Comisi&#xf3;n Nacional de Investigaci&#xf3;n Cient&#xed;fica y Tecnol&#xf3;gica/ ; 3110187//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient&#xed;fico y Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; 1160370//Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient&#xed;fico y Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Chile ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Deer ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects population cycles of several species, threatening biodiversity. However, there are few long-term studies on species with conservation issues and restricted distributions. Huemul is a deer endemic to the southern Andes in South America and it is considered endangered mostly due to a 50% reduction of its distribution over the last 500 years. To assess environmental variables potentially affecting huemul population viability and the impact of climate change, we developed population dynamics models. We used a 14-year survey data from Bernardo O'Higgins National Park, coastal Chilean Patagonia. We used Ricker models considering winter and spring temperatures and precipitation as variables influencing huemul population dynamics. We used the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to select models with the greatest predictive power. The two best models (ΔBIC < 2) included winter temperature and density-dependence population growth drivers. The best model considered a lateral effect, where winter temperature influences carrying capacity and the second best a vertical effect with winter temperature influencing Rmax and carrying capacity. Population viability was evaluated using those models, projecting them over a 100-year period: (a) under current conditions and (b) under conditions estimated by Global Climate Models for 2050 and 2070. The extinction risk and quasi-extinction were estimated for this population considering two critical huemul abundance levels (15 and 30 individuals) for persistence. The population is currently in a quasi-extinction process, with extinction probabilities increasing with climate change. These results are crucial for conservation of species like huemul that have low densities and are threatened by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32734424, year = {2020}, author = {Huang, W and Dai, J and Wang, W and Li, J and Feng, C and Du, J}, title = {Phenological changes in herbaceous plants in China's grasslands and their responses to climate change: a meta-analysis.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {11}, pages = {1865-1876}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01974-1}, pmid = {32734424}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {2016YFC0503304//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 2018YFA0606102//National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 41771056//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Grassland ; Plants ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Plant phenological events are sensitive indicators of climate change, and their change could markedly affect the structure and function of ecosystems. Previous studies have revealed the spatiotemporal variations in the phenological events of woody plants. However, limited studies have focused on the phenophases of herbaceous plants. In this study, by using a meta-analysis method, we extracted information about the phenological changes in herbaceous plants in China's grasslands from existing studies (including the period, station, species, phenophases, phenological trends, and climatic determinants) and analyzed the patterns manifested in the dataset. The results showed that the spring phenophases (e.g., first leaf date and first flowering date) of the herbaceous plants mainly advanced over the past 30 years, but a large difference existed across grassland types. The spring phenophases of forages (species from the Cyperaceae, Gramineae, and Leguminosae families) became earlier in the desert steppe and alpine steppe but showed no apparent trends in the alpine meadow and even became later in the meadow steppe and typical steppe. In most cases, the increase in spring temperatures and precipitation promoted the greening up of herbaceous plants, while sunshine duration was positively correlated with the green-up date of herbaceous plants. For the autumn phenophases, the proportions of the earlier and later trends were very close, but the trends varied among the grassland types. The leaf coloring dates of the forages were delayed in the meadow steppe and alpine steppe but showed no distinct pattern in the typical steppe or alpine meadow and even became earlier in the desert steppe. In most cases, the increase in growing season temperature led to an earlier leaf coloring date of the herbaceous plants, but the increase in the preseason precipitation delayed the leaf coloring date. Our results suggested that the phenophases of herbaceous plants have complicated responses to multiple environmental factors, which makes predicting future phenological changes difficult.}, }
@article {pmid32734279, year = {2020}, author = {Bellouin, N and Quaas, J and Gryspeerdt, E and Kinne, S and Stier, P and Watson-Parris, D and Boucher, O and Carslaw, KS and Christensen, M and Daniau, AL and Dufresne, JL and Feingold, G and Fiedler, S and Forster, P and Gettelman, A and Haywood, JM and Lohmann, U and Malavelle, F and Mauritsen, T and McCoy, DT and Myhre, G and Mülmenstädt, J and Neubauer, D and Possner, A and Rugenstein, M and Sato, Y and Schulz, M and Schwartz, SE and Sourdeval, O and Storelvmo, T and Toll, V and Winker, D and Stevens, B}, title = {Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.}, journal = {Reviews of geophysics (Washington, D.C. : 1985)}, volume = {58}, number = {1}, pages = {e2019RG000660}, pmid = {32734279}, issn = {8755-1209}, abstract = {Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m[-2], or -2.0 to -0.4 W m[-2] with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.}, }
@article {pmid32728594, year = {2020}, author = {Munia, HA and Guillaume, JHA and Wada, Y and Veldkamp, T and Virkki, V and Kummu, M}, title = {Future Transboundary Water Stress and Its Drivers Under Climate Change: A Global Study.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e2019EF001321}, pmid = {32728594}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {Various transboundary river basins are facing increased pressure on water resources in near future. However, little is known ab out the future drivers globally, namely, changes in natural local runoff and natural inflows from upstream parts of a basin, as well as local and upstream water consumption. Here we use an ensemble of four global hydrological models forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration (RCP) and socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios to assess the impact of these drivers on transboundary water stress in the past and future. Our results show that population under water stress is expected to increase by 50% under a low population growth and emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and double under a high population growth and emission scenario (SSP3-RCP6.0), compared to the year 2010. As changes in water availability have a smaller effect when water is not yet scarce, changes in water stress globally are dominated by local water consumption-managing local demand is thus necessary in order to avoid future stress. Focusing then on the role of upstream changes, we identified upstream availability (i.e., less natural runoff or increased water consumption) as the dominant driver of changes in net water availability in most downstream areas. Moreover, an increased number of people will be living in areas dependent on upstream originating water in 2050. International water treaties and management will therefore have an increasingly crucial role in these hot spot regions to ensure fair management of transboundary water resources.}, }
@article {pmid32728139, year = {2020}, author = {McMahan, CD and Fuentes-Montejo, CE and Ginger, L and Carrasco, JC and Chakrabarty, P and Matamoros, WA}, title = {Climate change models predict decreases in the range of a microendemic freshwater fish in Honduras.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {12693}, pmid = {32728139}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Despite their incredible diversity, relatively little work has been done to assess impacts of climate change on tropical freshwater organisms. Chortiheros wesseli is a species of Neotropical cichlid (Cichlidae: Cichlinae) restricted to only a few river drainages in the Caribbean-slope of Honduras. Little is known about this species and few specimens had been collected until recently; however, our work with this species in the wild has led to a better understanding of its ecology and habitat preferences making it an excellent model for how freshwater fishes can be affected by climate change. This study assesses the distribution and habitats of Chortiheros wesseli using a combination of field data and species distribution modeling. Results indicate this species is largely limited to its current range, with no realistic suitable habitat nearby. Empirical habitat data show that this species is limited to narrow and shallow flowing waters with rapids and boulders. This habitat type is highly influenced by precipitation, which contributed the greatest influence on the models of present and future habitat suitability. Although several localities are within boundaries of national protected areas, species distribution models all predict a reduction in the range of this freshwater fish based on climate change scenarios. The likelihood of a reduced range for this species will be intensified by adverse changes to its preferred habitats.}, }
@article {pmid32726701, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, W and Bailey, RT and Andersen, HE and Jeppesen, E and Nielsen, A and Peng, K and Molina-Navarro, E and Park, S and Thodsen, H and Trolle, D}, title = {Quantifying the effects of climate change on hydrological regime and stream biota in a groundwater-dominated catchment: A modelling approach combining SWAT-MODFLOW with flow-biota empirical models.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {745}, number = {}, pages = {140933}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140933}, pmid = {32726701}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Biota ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Groundwater ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Climate change may affect stream ecosystems through flow regime alterations, which can be particularly complex in streams with a significant groundwater contribution. To quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and subsequently the stream biota, we linked SWAT-MODFLOW (A model coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Modular Finite-difference Flow Model) with flow-biota empirical models that included indices for three key biological taxonomic identities (fish, macroinvertebrates and macrophytes) and applied the model-complex to a groundwater-dominated catchment in Denmark. Effects of predicted climate change towards the end of this century relative to the reference period (1996-2005) were tested with two contrasting climate change scenarios of different greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP 2.6) and RCP 8.5) and analysed for all subbasins grouped into streams of three size classes. The total water yield in the catchment did not change significantly (-1 ± 4 (SD) mm yr[-1]) from the baseline in the RCP2.6 scenario, while it increased by 9 ± 11 mm yr[-1] in the RCP8.5 scenario. The three stream size classes underwent different alterations in flow regime and also demonstrated different biotic responses to climate change. All large and some small streams were impacted most heavily by the climate change, where fish and macrophyte indices decreased up to 14.4% and 11.2%, respectively, whereas these indices increased by up to 14.4% and 6.0%, respectively, in the medium and some small streams. The climate change effects were, as expected, larger in the RCP8.5 scenario than in the RCP2.6 scenario. Our study is the first to quantify the impacts of streamflow alterations induced by climate change on stream biota beyond specific species.}, }
@article {pmid32726345, year = {2020}, author = {Boethius, A and Kjällquist, M and Magnell, O and Apel, J}, title = {Human encroachment, climate change and the loss of our archaeological organic cultural heritage: Accelerated bone deterioration at Ageröd, a revisited Scandinavian Mesolithic key-site in despair.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e0236105}, pmid = {32726345}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Archaeology ; Bone and Bones/*pathology ; *Climate Change ; Human Activities/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Preservation, Biological/*methods ; }, abstract = {Ancient organic remains are essential for the reconstruction of past human lifeways and environments but are only preserved under particular conditions. Recent findings indicate that such conditions are becoming rarer and that archaeological sites with previously good preservation, are deteriorating. To investigate this, we returned to the well-known Swedish Mesolithic site Ageröd I. Here we present the result of the re-excavation and the osteological analyses of the bone remains from the 1940s, 1970s and 2019 excavation campaigns of the site, to document and quantify changes in bone preservation and relate them to variations in soil conditions and on-site topography. The results indicate that the bone material has suffered from accelerated deterioration during the last 75 years. This has led to heavily degraded remains in some areas and complete destruction in others. We conclude that while Ageröd can still be considered an important site, it has lost much of the properties that made it unique. If no actions are taken to secure its future preservation, the site will soon lose the organic remains that before modern encroachment and climate change had been preserved for 9000 years. Finally, because Ageröd has not been subjected to more or heavier encroachment than most other archaeological sites, our results also raise questions of the state of organic preservation in other areas and call for a broad examination of our most vulnerable hidden archaeological remains.}, }
@article {pmid32724542, year = {2020}, author = {Quinby, BM and Belk, MC and Creighton, JC}, title = {Behavioral constraints on local adaptation and counter-gradient variation: Implications for climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {13}, pages = {6688-6701}, pmid = {32724542}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Resource allocation to growth, reproduction, and body maintenance varies within species along latitudinal gradients. Two hypotheses explaining this variation are local adaptation and counter-gradient variation. The local adaptation hypothesis proposes that populations are adapted to local environmental conditions and are therefore less adapted to environmental conditions at other locations. The counter-gradient variation hypothesis proposes that one population out performs others across an environmental gradient because its source location has greater selective pressure than other locations. Our study had two goals. First, we tested the local adaptation and counter-gradient variation hypotheses by measuring effects of environmental temperature on phenotypic expression of reproductive traits in the burying beetle, Nicrophorus orbicollis Say, from three populations along a latitudinal gradient in a common garden experimental design. Second, we compared patterns of variation to evaluate whether traits covary or whether local adaptation of traits precludes adaptive responses by others. Across a latitudinal range, N. orbicollis exhibits variation in initiating reproduction and brood sizes. Consistent with local adaptation: (a) beetles were less likely to initiate breeding at extreme temperatures, especially when that temperature represents their source range; (b) once beetles initiate reproduction, source populations produce relatively larger broods at temperatures consistent with their local environment. Consistent with counter-gradient variation, lower latitude populations were more successful at producing offspring at lower temperatures. We found no evidence for adaptive variation in other adult or offspring performance traits. This suite of traits does not appear to coevolve along the latitudinal gradient. Rather, response to selection to breed within a narrow temperature range may preclude selection on other traits. Our study highlights that N. orbicollis uses temperature as an environmental cue to determine whether to initiate reproduction, providing insight into how behavior is modified to avoid costly reproductive attempts. Furthermore, our results suggest a temperature constraint that shapes reproductive behavior.}, }
@article {pmid32722794, year = {2021}, author = {Footitt, S and Hambidge, AJ and Finch-Savage, WE}, title = {Changes in phenological events in response to a global warming scenario reveal greater adaptability of winter annual compared with summer annual arabidopsis ecotypes.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {127}, number = {1}, pages = {111-122}, pmid = {32722794}, issn = {1095-8290}, support = {BB/I022201/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Arabidopsis ; Ecotype ; Europe ; Germination ; Global Warming ; Ireland ; Plant Dormancy ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The impact of global warming on life cycle timing is uncertain. We investigated changes in life cycle timing in a global warming scenario. We compared Arabidopsis thaliana ecotypes adapted to the warm/dry Cape Verdi Islands (Cvi), Macaronesia, and the cool/wet climate of the Burren (Bur), Ireland, Northern Europe. These are obligate winter and summer annuals, respectively.<br><br>METHODS: Using a global warming scenario predicting a 4 &#xb0;C temperature rise from 2011 to approx. 2080, we produced F1 seeds at each end of a thermogradient tunnel. Each F1 cohort (cool and warm) then produced F2 seeds at both ends of the thermal gradient in winter and summer annual life cycles. F2 seeds from the winter life cycle were buried at three positions along the gradient to determine the impact of temperature on seedling emergence in a simulated winter life cycle.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: In a winter life cycle, increasing temperatures advanced flowering time by 10.1 d &#xb0;C-1 in the winter annual and 4.9 d &#xb0;C-1 in the summer annual. Plant size and seed yield responded positively to global warming in both ecotypes. In a winter life cycle, the impact of increasing temperature on seedling emergence timing was positive in the winter annual, but negative in the summer annual. Global warming reduced summer annual plant size and seed yield in a summer life cycle.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Seedling emergence timing observed in the north European summer annual ecotype may exacerbate the negative impact of predicted increased spring and summer temperatures on their establishment and reproductive performance. In contrast, seedling establishment of the Macaronesian winter annual may benefit from higher soil temperatures that will delay emergence until autumn, but which also facilitates earlier spring flowering and consequent avoidance of high summer temperatures. Such plasticity gives winter annual arabidopsis ecotypes a distinct advantage over summer annuals in expected global warming scenarios. This highlights the importance of variation in the timing of seedling establishment in understanding plant species responses to anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32722291, year = {2020}, author = {Di Cicco, ME and Ferrante, G and Amato, D and Capizzi, A and De Pieri, C and Ferraro, VA and Furno, M and Tranchino, V and La Grutta, S}, title = {Climate Change and Childhood Respiratory Health: A Call to Action for Paediatricians.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {32722291}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Allergens ; Child ; *Child Welfare ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity ; *Pediatricians ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is one of the main contributors to health emergencies worldwide. CC appears to be closely interrelated with air pollution, as some pollutants like carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and black carbon are naturally occurring greenhouse gases. Air pollution may enhance the allergenicity of some plants and, also, has an adverse effect on respiratory health. Children are a uniquely vulnerable group that suffers disproportionately from CC burden. The increasing global warming related to CC has a big impact on plants' lifecycles, with earlier and longer pollen seasons, as well as higher pollen production, putting children affected by asthma and allergic rhinitis at risk for exacerbations. Extreme weather events may play a role too, not only in the exacerbations of allergic respiratory diseases but, also, in favouring respiratory infections. Even though paediatricians are already seeing the impacts of CC on their patients, their knowledge about CC-related health outcomes with specific regards to children's respiratory health is incomplete. This advocates for paediatricians' increased awareness and a better understanding of the CC impact on children's respiratory health. Having a special responsibility for children, paediatricians should actively be involved in policies aimed to protect the next generation from CC-related adverse health effects. Hence, there is an urgent need for them to take action and successfully educate families about CC issues. This paper aims at reviewing the evidence of CC-related environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, rainfall and extreme events on respiratory allergic diseases and respiratory infections in children and proposing specific actionable items for paediatricians to deal with CC-related health issues in their clinical practice.}, }
@article {pmid32721755, year = {2020}, author = {Kim, YU and Lee, BW}, title = {Earlier planting offsets the adverse effect of global warming on spring potato in South Korea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {742}, number = {}, pages = {140667}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140667}, pmid = {32721755}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Republic of Korea ; Seasons ; *Solanum tuberosum ; }, abstract = {Potato is one of the most important food crops in South Korea, but the climate change impact on potato production is not clearly understood due to the complex topography across the nation. The climate change impact on spring potato was assessed with a fine-resolution (1-km) simulation using the SUBSTOR-potato model and five regional climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5. Compared to the current climate, the future climates were projected to be more favorable for the spring potato production, which contrasts the previous simulation studies using general circulation models with coarse resolutions (0.5-1.0°). Without any adaptations, anticipated warming was projected to decrease potato yield by -7.7% in the 2080s. However, growing season length (GSL) could be extended by 18.5 days with earlier planting, which eventually over-compensated the negative warming effect. With consideration of the CO2 fertilization effect, overall climate change impact could be up to +80% in the 2080s. In addition, replacing the current early cultivar "Superior" with mid-late cultivars will provide additional yield gain in the coastal areas. Meanwhile, in the inland areas, breeding of frost- and heat-tolerance cultivars will be required for additional yield gain. Still, cautious interpretation is needed since the CO2 fertilization effect might be over-estimated and that the farmers may not extend GSL as much as in the current study from the economic point of view (i.e., farmers may harvest earlier when the market price of potato is high). This study highlights that a fine spatial resolution is essential for the realistic simulation of the climate change impact in complex terrain.}, }
@article {pmid32721353, year = {2020}, author = {Perry, DC and Chaffee, C and Wigand, C and Thornber, C}, title = {Implementing adaptive management into a climate change adaptation strategy for a drowning New England salt marsh.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {270}, number = {}, pages = {110928}, pmid = {32721353}, issn = {1095-8630}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Drowning ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; New England ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Due to climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, future conditions and impacts facing coastal habitats are unclear to coastal resource managers. Adaptive management strategies have become an important tactic to compensate for the unknown environmental conditions that coastal managers and restoration ecologists face. Adaptive management requires extensive planning and resources, which can act as barriers to achieve a successful project. These barriers also create challenges in incorporating adaptive management into climate change adaptation strategies. This case study describes and analyzes the Rhode Island Coastal Resources Management Council's approach to overcome these challenges to implement a successful adaptive management project to restore a drowning salt marsh using the climate change adaptation strategy, sediment enhancement, at Quonochontaug Pond in Charlestown, RI. Through effective communication and active stakeholder involvement, this project successfully incorporated interdisciplinary partner and stakeholder collaborations and developed an iterative learning strategy that highlights the adaptive management method.}, }
@article {pmid32720216, year = {2020}, author = {Hayes, K and Poland, B and Cole, DC and Agic, B}, title = {Psychosocial adaptation to climate change in High River, Alberta: implications for policy and practice.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {111}, number = {6}, pages = {880-889}, pmid = {32720216}, issn = {1920-7476}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Alberta ; *Climate Change ; Floods ; Humans ; Policy ; Public Health Practice ; *Social Adjustment ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Psychosocial adaptation to climate change-related events remains understudied. We sought to assess how the psychosocial consequences of a major event were addressed via public health responses (e.g., programs, policies, and practices) that aimed to enhance, protect, and promote mental health.<br><br>METHODS: We report on a study of health and social service responses to the long-term mental health impacts of the 2013 Southern Alberta flood, in High River, Alberta. Qualitative research methods included (i) telephone interviews (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;14) with key informant health and social services leaders, (ii) four focus group sessions with front-line health and social services workers (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;14), and (iii) semi-structured interviews with a sample of community members (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;18) who experienced the flood. We conducted a descriptive thematic analysis, with a focus on participants' perceptions and experiences.<br><br>RESULTS: Findings of this study suggest (1) the long-term psychosocial impacts of extreme weather and climate change require sustained recovery interventions rooted in local knowledge and interdisciplinary action; (2) there are unintended consequences related to psychosocial interventions that can incite complex emotions and impact psychosocial recovery; and (3) perceptions of mental health care, among people exposed to climate-related trauma, can guide climate change and mental health response and recovery interventions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Based on this initial exploration, policy and practice opportunities for public health to enhance psychosocial adaptation to our changing climate are highlighted.}, }
@article {pmid32719706, year = {2020}, author = {Letelier, L and Gaete-Eastman, C and Peñailillo, P and Moya-León, MA and Herrera, R}, title = {Southern Species From the Biodiversity Hotspot of Central Chile: A Source of Color, Aroma, and Metabolites for Global Agriculture and Food Industry in a Scenario of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1002}, pmid = {32719706}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Two interesting plants within the Chilean flora (wild and crop species) can be found with a history related to modern fruticulture: Fragaria chiloensis subsp. chiloensis (Rosaceae) and Vasconcellea pubescens (Caricaceae). Both species have a wide natural distribution, which goes from the Andes mountains to the sea (East-West), and from the Atacama desert to the South of Chile (North-South). The growing locations are included within the Chilean Winter Rainfall-Valdivian Forest hotspot. Global warming is of great concern as it increases the risk of losing wild plant species, but at the same time, gives a chance for usually longer term genetic improvement using naturally adapted material and the source for generating healthy foods. Modern agriculture intensifies the attractiveness of native undomesticated species as a way to provide compounds like antioxidants or tolerant plants for climate change scenario. F. chiloensis subsp. chiloensis as the mother of commercial strawberry (Fragaria × ananassa) is an interesting genetic source for the improvement of fruit flavor and stress tolerance. On the other hand, V. pubescens produces fruit with high level of antioxidants and proteolytic enzymes of interest to the food industry. The current review compiles the botanical, physiological and phytochemical description of F. chiloensis subsp. chiloensis and V. pubescens, highlighting their potential as functional foods and as source of compounds with several applications in the pharmaceutical, biotechnological, and food science. The impact of global warming scenario on the distribution of the species is also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid32719142, year = {2020}, author = {Driscoll, AW and Bitter, NQ and Sandquist, DR and Ehleringer, JR}, title = {Multidecadal records of intrinsic water-use efficiency in the desert shrub Encelia farinosa reveal strong responses to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {31}, pages = {18161-18168}, pmid = {32719142}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Asteraceae/*physiology ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; Droughts ; Water/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {While tree rings have enabled interannual examination of the influence of climate on trees, this is not possible for most shrubs. Here, we leverage a multidecadal record of annual foliar carbon isotope ratio collections coupled with 39 y of survey data from two populations of the drought-deciduous desert shrub Encelia farinosa to provide insight into water-use dynamics and climate. This carbon isotope record provides a unique opportunity to examine the response of desert shrubs to increasing temperature and water stress in a region where climate is changing rapidly. Population mean carbon isotope ratios fluctuated predictably in response to interannual variations in temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and precipitation, and responses were similar among individuals. We leveraged the well-established relationships between leaf carbon isotope ratios and the ratio of intracellular to ambient CO2 concentrations to calculate intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of the plants and to quantify plant responses to long-term environmental change. The population mean iWUE value increased by 53 to 58% over the study period, much more than the 20 to 30% increase that has been measured in forests [J. Peñuelas, J. G. Canadell, R. Ogaya, Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 20, 597-608 (2011)]. Changes were associated with both increased CO2 concentration and increased water stress. Individuals whose lifetimes spanned the entire study period exhibited increases in iWUE that were very similar to the population mean, suggesting that there was significant plasticity within individuals rather than selection at the population scale.}, }
@article {pmid32718436, year = {2020}, author = {Gaythorpe, KA and Hamlet, A and Cibrelus, L and Garske, T and Ferguson, NM}, title = {The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {32718436}, issn = {2050-084X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; MR/R015600/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; OPP1117543//Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation/International ; OPP1157270//Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {Aedes/*physiology ; Africa/epidemiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Burden of Disease ; Humans ; Mosquito Vectors/*physiology ; Yellow Fever/*epidemiology/*transmission ; }, abstract = {Yellow Fever (YF) is an arbovirus endemic in tropical regions of South America and Africa and it is estimated to cause 78,000 deaths a year in Africa alone. Climate change may have substantial effects on the transmission of YF and we present the first analysis of the potential impact on disease burden. We extend an existing model of YF transmission to account for rainfall and a temperature suitability index and project transmission intensity across the African endemic region in the context of four climate change scenarios. We use these transmission projections to assess the change in burden in 2050 and 2070. We find disease burden changes heterogeneously across the region. In the least severe scenario, we find a 93.0%[95%CI(92.7, 93.2%)] chance that annual deaths will increase in 2050. This change in epidemiology will complicate future control efforts. Thus, we may need to consider the effect of changing climatic variables on future intervention strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32718434, year = {2020}, author = {Yin, R and Siebert, J and Eisenhauer, N and Schädler, M}, title = {Climate change and intensive land use reduce soil animal biomass via dissimilar pathways.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {32718434}, issn = {2050-084X}, support = {677232/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; 201406910015//China Scholarship Council/International ; No. 677232//H2020 European Research Council/International ; FZT 118//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Arthropods ; *Biodiversity ; Biomass ; *Biota ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Germany ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Global change drivers, such as climate change and land use, may profoundly influence body size, density, and biomass of soil organisms. However, it is still unclear how these concurrent drivers interact in affecting ecological communities. Here, we present the results of an experimental field study assessing the interactive effects of climate change and land-use intensification on body size, density, and biomass of soil microarthropods. We found that the projected climate change and intensive land use decreased their total biomass. Strikingly, this reduction was realized via two dissimilar pathways: climate change reduced mean body size and intensive land use decreased density. These findings highlight that two of the most pervasive global change drivers operate via different pathways when decreasing soil animal biomass. These shifts in soil communities may threaten essential ecosystem functions like organic matter turnover and nutrient cycling in future ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid32715118, year = {2020}, author = {Idrissou, Y and Assani, AS and Baco, MN and Yabi, AJ and Alkoiret Traoré, I}, title = {Adaptation strategies of cattle farmers in the dry and sub-humid tropical zones of Benin in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {7}, pages = {e04373}, pmid = {32715118}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Cattle farming is directly impacted by climate change (CC), as it utilizes resources whose seasonality and productivity are strongly climate-dependent. Farmers respond to the negative influence of CC by implementing different adaptation strategies, where choices are informed by many factors. This study aims at analyzing the adaptation strategies of cattle farmers in the dry tropical zone (DTZ) and sub-humid tropical zone (STZ) of Benin with regard to climate change, as well as the determinants for the choice of these strategies. For that matter, 360 cattle farmers were surveyed. Data collected were related to the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the cattle farmers, their perception and adaptation to CC. The data collected were subjected to frequency analysis and binary logistic regression. The results showed that livestock farmers were partly aware of climate related with CC, especially the increase of temperature. The most important adaptation strategies mentioned by cattle farmers were mobility, integration of livestock and crop husbandry, provision of concentrate feed, reduction of herd size, diversification of livestock, and forage cropping. Farming experience, cattle herd size, membership in an organization, number of farm assets, level of education, and climate zone were the major variables affecting farmers' adaptation strategies. From this study, we recommend that any program promoting adaption of climate change resilience among farmers, especially cattle farmers, should take the identified factors into account.}, }
@article {pmid32715012, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, M and Yang, L and Smith, JA and Vecchi, GA}, title = {Response of Extreme Rainfall for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition to Projected Climate Change: Hurricane Irene (2011).}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {e2019EF001360}, pmid = {32715012}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) have large societal impacts, both in fatalities and economic losses. This study examines the response of TC rainfall to climate change projected under future anthropogenic greenhouse emissions, focusing on Hurricane Irene, which produced severe flooding across the Northeastern United States in August 2011. Numerical simulations are made with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, placing Irene in the present-day climate and one projected for the end of 21st century climate represented by Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Projected future changes to surface and atmospheric temperature lead to a storm rainfall increase of 32% relative to the control run, exceeding the rate expected by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation given a ~3-K lower atmospheric warming. Analyses of the atmospheric water balance highlight contributions to the increase in rainfall rate from both increased circulation strength and atmospheric moisture. Storm rainfall rate shows contrasting response to global warming during TC and extratropical transition periods. During the TC phase, Irene shows a significant increase of storm rainfall rate in inner core regions. This increase shifts to outer rainbands as Irene undergoes extratropical transition, collocated with the maximum tangential wind increase and the change of secondary circulation strength. Changes of storm track from the control run to global warming projections play a role in the change of spatial rainfall pattern. Distinct roles of surface and atmospheric warming in storm rainfall and structure changes are also examined.}, }
@article {pmid32714343, year = {2020}, author = {Heckathorn, S and North, G and Wang, D and Zhu, C}, title = {Editorial: Climate Change and Plant Nutrient Relations.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {869}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2020.00869}, pmid = {32714343}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid32713996, year = {2020}, author = {Fahad, AA and Burls, NJ and Strasberg, Z}, title = {How will southern hemisphere subtropical anticyclones respond to global warming? Mechanisms and seasonality in CMIP5 and CMIP6 model projections.}, journal = {Climate dynamics}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, pages = {703-718}, pmid = {32713996}, issn = {0930-7575}, abstract = {The anticyclonic high-pressure systems over the southern-hemisphere, subtropical oceans have a significant influence on regional climate. Previous studies of how these subtropical anticyclones will change under global warming have focused on austral summer while the winter season has remained largely uninvestigated, together with the extent to which the dominant mechanisms proposed to explain the multi-model-mean changes similarly explain the inter-model spread in projections. This study addresses these gaps by focusing on the mechanisms that drive the spread in projected future changes across the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 archives during both the summer and winter seasons. The southern hemisphere anticyclones intensify in strength at their center and poleward flank during both seasons in the future projections analyzed. The inter-model spread in projected local diabatic heating changes accounts for a considerable amount of the inter-model spread in the response of the South Pacific anticyclone during both seasons. However, model differences in projected zonal-mean tropospheric static stability changes, which in turn influence baroclinic eddy growth, are most influential in determining the often-strong increases in sea level pressure seen along the poleward flank of all the anticyclones during both seasons. Increased zonal-mean tropospheric static stability over the subtropics is consistent with the poleward shift in Hadley cell edge and zonal-mean sea level pressure increases. The results suggest that differences in the extent of tropical-upper-tropospheric and subtropical-lower-tropospheric warming in the southern hemisphere, via their influence on tropospheric static stability, will largely determine the fate of the anticyclones over the coming century.}, }
@article {pmid32711362, year = {2020}, author = {Marshall, KE and Gotthard, K and Williams, CM}, title = {Evolutionary impacts of winter climate change on insects.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {54-62}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2020.06.003}, pmid = {32711362}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Acclimatization/physiology ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Insecta/*physiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Overwintering is a serious challenge for insects, and winters are rapidly changing as climate shifts. The capacity for phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary adaptation will determine which species profit or suffer from these changes. Here we discuss current knowledge on the potential and evidence for evolution in winter-relevant traits among insect species and populations. We conclude that the best evidence for evolutionary shifts in response to changing winters remain those related to changes in phenology, but all evidence points to cold hardiness as also having the potential to evolve in response to climate change. Predicting future population sizes and ranges relies on understanding to what extent evolution in winter-related traits is possible, and remains a serious challenge.}, }
@article {pmid32711311, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, DD and Pei, Q and Lee, HF and Jim, CY and Li, G and Zhang, M and Li, J and Wu, Z and Wang, L and Yue, RPH and Zhang, S}, title = {Climate change fostered cultural dynamics of human resilience in Europe in the past 2500 years.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {744}, number = {}, pages = {140842}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140842}, pmid = {32711311}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Humans possess limited knowledge on what generated cultural dynamics to strengthen human resilience to overcome climate-induced stresses. Although the highly developed mental ability of humans could have enabled significant human resilience in history, no study has empirically explained or has even scientifically confirmed how and when such dynamics arose. To fill the current research gap, this study therefore explores the associations among climatic conditions, the evolutional dynamics of human thinkers and their thoughts, and human ecological-socioeconomic conditions in the past 2500 years in Europe. Results from quantitative modellings and causal analyses confirm that climatic-ecological stresses led to human ecological-socioeconomic crises, and thereby dramatically increased twice of the thinkers' number and their thoughts' impact across different philosophies in truth, knowledge, and ethics for adaptation at multi-decadal to centennial temporal scales, especially in spirituality oriented mentality. The process of the stress-generated cultural dynamics displays some similarities with the stress-induced mutagenesis in organism evolution. Ultimately, climatic-ecological stresses prompt the escalation in the number of thinkers and impacts of their thoughts and flourishing of philosophy. Such stress-regenerated cultural dynamics imply that the current climate change threat may stimulate another thriving phase of cultural selection and lift humans to the next homeostatic plateau of civilization. Findings also extend the cognate scope of psychological, sociological, and civilization studies.}, }
@article {pmid32710358, year = {2020}, author = {Chadha, A and Florentine, S and Javaid, M and Welgama, A and Turville, C}, title = {Influence of elements of climate change on the growth and fecundity of Datura stramonium.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {28}, pages = {35859-35869}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-10251-y}, pmid = {32710358}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Datura stramonium ; Droughts ; Fertility ; }, abstract = {In this study, the performance of Datura stramonium, an invasive weed of soybean and solanaceous crops, was examined under different elements of climate change. Experiments conducted in CO2 chambers at ambient CO2 (400 ppm) and elevated CO2 (700 ppm) levels under both well-watered and drought conditions exhibited the fertilization effect of elevated CO2. This was, however, limited by drought. Clearly, growth of D. stramonium will be significantly enhanced by enriched atmospheric CO2 concentration under well-watered conditions, producing taller plants with greater biomass and higher seed output. Glasshouse experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of different soil moisture regimes (100%, 75%, 50% and 25% water-holding capacity (WHC)) on the growth and fecundity of D. stramonium. Plants grown in 75% WHC had the highest plant height (15.24 cm) and shoot diameter (4.25 mm). The lowest leaf area (305.91 mm[2]), fresh weight (14.48 g) and dry weight (4.45 g) were observed in 25% WHC conditions. The ability of D. stramonium plants to grow and complete their life cycle with high seed output, even under limited water availability, shows the weedy nature of this species which is well adapted to survive future inhospitable climatic conditions. Radiant heat treatment on the plants indicated that temperatures of 120 °C and above for more than 180 s were enough to kill the plants, suggesting that thermal weeding or wildfires will be adequate to act as a circuit breaker on the D. stramonium invasion cycle, thus allowing other control measures to be engaged for greater control.}, }
@article {pmid32709871, year = {2020}, author = {Wu, WY and Lo, MH and Wada, Y and Famiglietti, JS and Reager, JT and Yeh, PJ and Ducharne, A and Yang, ZL}, title = {Divergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3710}, pmid = {32709871}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Groundwater provides critical freshwater supply, particularly in dry regions where surface water availability is limited. Climate change impacts on GWS (groundwater storage) could affect the sustainability of freshwater resources. Here, we used a fully-coupled climate model to investigate GWS changes over seven critical aquifers identified as significantly distressed by satellite observations. We assessed the potential climate-driven impacts on GWS changes throughout the 21[st] century under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Results show that the climate-driven impacts on GWS changes do not necessarily reflect the long-term trend in precipitation; instead, the trend may result from enhancement of evapotranspiration, and reduction in snowmelt, which collectively lead to divergent responses of GWS changes across different aquifers. Finally, we compare the climate-driven and anthropogenic pumping impacts. The reduction in GWS is mainly due to the combined impacts of over-pumping and climate effects; however, the contribution of pumping could easily far exceed the natural replenishment.}, }
@article {pmid32709742, year = {2020}, author = {Yoccoz, NG}, title = {Seasonal climate change and marmot demography.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {32}, pages = {18921-18923}, pmid = {32709742}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Mammals ; *Marmota ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid32708953, year = {2020}, author = {Ching, J and Kajino, M}, title = {Rethinking Air Quality and Climate Change after COVID-19.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {32708953}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {14200133//Research Institute for Humanity and Nature/International ; JP19F19402//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/International ; JP19H01155//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/International ; JP16KK0018//Japan Society for the Promotion of Science/International ; }, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Betacoronavirus/*isolation &amp; purification ; COVID-19 ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/virology ; Environmental Pollution ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/virology ; Public Health ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {The world is currently shadowed by the pandemic of COVID-19. Confirmed cases and the death toll has reached more than 12 million and more than 550,000 respectively as of 10 July 2020. In the unsettling pandemic of COVID-19, the whole Earth has been on an unprecedented lockdown. Social distancing among people, interrupted international and domestic air traffic and suspended industrial productions and economic activities have various far-reaching and undetermined implications on air quality and the climate system. Improvement in air quality has been reported in many cities during lockdown, while the death rate of COVID-19 has been found to be higher in more polluted cities. The relationship between the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and air quality is under investigation. In addition, the battle against COVID-19 could bring short-lived and long-lasting and positive and negative impacts to the warming climate. The impacts on the climate system and the role of the climate in modulating the COVID-19 pandemic are the foci of scientific inquiry. The intertwined relationship among environment, climate change and public health is exemplified in the pandemic of COVID-19. Further investigation of the relationship is imperative in the Anthropocene, in particular, in enhancing disaster preparedness. This short article intends to give an up-to-date glimpse of the pandemic from air quality and climate perspectives and calls for a follow-up discussion.}, }
@article {pmid32708323, year = {2020}, author = {Shayanmehr, S and Rastegari Henneberry, S and Sabouhi Sabouni, M and Shahnoushi Foroushani, N}, title = {Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {32708323}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Droughts ; Humans ; Iran ; *Temperature ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Agriculture has been identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors affected by climate change. In the present study, we investigate the impact of climatic change on dryland wheat yield in the northwest of Iran for the future time horizon of 2041-2070. The Just and Pope production function is applied to assess the impact of climate change on dryland wheat yield and yield risk for the period of 1991-2016. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to generate climate parameters from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. The results show that minimum temperature is negatively related to average yield in the linear model while the relationship is positive in the non-linear model. An increase in precipitation increases the mean yield in either model. The maximum temperature has a positive effect on the mean yield in the linear model, while this impact is negative in the non-linear model. Drought has an adverse impact on yield levels in both models. The results also indicate that maximum temperature, precipitation, and drought are positively related to yield variability, but minimum temperature is negatively associated with yield variability. The findings also reveal that yield variability is expected to increase in response to future climate scenarios. Given these impacts of temperature on rain-fed wheat crop and its increasing vulnerability to climatic change, policy-makers should support research into and development of wheat varieties that are resistant to temperature variations.}, }
@article {pmid32707000, year = {2020}, author = {Madden, DL and McLean, M and Brennan, M and Moore, A}, title = {Why use indicators to measure and monitor the inclusion of climate change and environmental sustainability in health professions' education?.}, journal = {Medical teacher}, volume = {42}, number = {10}, pages = {1119-1122}, doi = {10.1080/0142159X.2020.1795106}, pmid = {32707000}, issn = {1466-187X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Curriculum ; *Education, Medical ; Health Occupations ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Currently, health professionals are inadequately prepared to meet the challenges that climate change and environmental degradation pose to health systems. Health professions' education (HPE) has an ethical responsibility to address this and must include the health effects of climate change and environmental sustainability across all curricula. As there is a narrow, closing window in which to take action to avoid the worst health outcomes from climate change, urgent, systematic, system-level change is required by the education sector. Measuring, monitoring, and reporting activity using indicators have been demonstrated to support change by providing a focus for action. A review of the literature on the use of indicators in medical education for climate change and health, however, yielded no publications. The framework of targets and indicators developed for implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 and the UNESCO initiative of the Education for Sustainable Development provide a guide for the development of indicators for HPE. Engaging stakeholders and achieving consensus on an approach to indicator development is essential and, where they exist, accreditation standards may have a supporting role. Creating capacity for environmentally sustainable health care at scale and pace should be our collective goal as health professions' educators.}, }
@article {pmid32703273, year = {2020}, author = {Udayanga, L and Gunathilaka, N and Iqbal, MCM and Abeyewickreme, W}, title = {Climate change induced vulnerability and adaption for dengue incidence in Colombo and Kandy districts: the detailed investigation in Sri Lanka.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {102}, pmid = {32703273}, issn = {2049-9957}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology/*etiology ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Female ; Geography ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Risk Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Sri Lanka/epidemiology ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Assessing the vulnerability of an infectious disease such as dengue among endemic population is an important requirement to design proactive programmes in order to improve resilience capacity of vulnerable communities. The current study aimed to evaluate the climate change induced socio-economic vulnerability of local communities to dengue in Colombo and Kandy districts of Sri Lanka.<br><br>METHODS: A total of 42 variables (entomological, epidemiological, meteorological parameters, land-use practices and socio-demographic data) of all the 38 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas in the districts of Colombo and Kandy were considered as candidate variables for a composite index based vulnerability assessment. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used in selecting and setting the weight for each indicator. Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity and Vulnerability of all MOH areas for dengue were calculated using the composite index approach recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.<br><br>RESULTS: Out of 42 candidate variables, only 23 parameters (Exposure Index: six variables; Sensitivity Index: 11 variables; Adaptive Capacity Index: six variables) were selected as indicators to assess climate change vulnerability to dengue. Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) MOH area denoted the highest values for exposure (0.89: exceptionally high exposure), sensitivity (0.86: exceptionally high sensitivity) in Colombo, while Kandy Municipal Council (KMC) area reported the highest exposure (0.79: high exposure) and sensitivity (0.77: high sensitivity) in Kandy. Piliyandala MOH area denoted the highest level of adaptive capacity (0.66) in Colombo followed by Menikhinna (0.68) in Kandy. The highest vulnerability (0.45: moderate vulnerability) to dengue was indicated from CMC and the lowest indicated from Galaha MOH (0.15; very low vulnerability) in Kandy. Interestingly the KMC MOH area had a notable vulnerability of 0.41 (moderate vulnerability), which was the highest within Kandy.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In general, vulnerability for dengue was relatively higher within the MOH areas of Colombo, than in Kandy, suggesting a higher degree of potential susceptibility to dengue within and among local communities of Colombo. Vector Controlling Entities are recommended to consider the spatial variations in vulnerability of local communities to dengue for decision making, especially in allocation of limited financial, human and mechanical resources for dengue epidemic management.}, }
@article {pmid32702540, year = {2020}, author = {Sun, S and Zhang, Y and Huang, D and Wang, H and Cao, Q and Fan, P and Yang, N and Zheng, P and Wang, R}, title = {The effect of climate change on the richness distribution pattern of oaks (Quercus L.) in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {744}, number = {}, pages = {140786}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140786}, pmid = {32702540}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Forests ; *Greenhouse Gases ; *Quercus ; }, abstract = {Increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the air is acknowledged as one of the main reason for observed global climatic change. This phenomenon significantly affects the species geographical distribution, and changes their richness distribution pattern. Oak (Quercus L.) is an important component of forests in China, and it has significant ecological value. Based on the distribution data of 35 species and 19 bioclimatic variables, the potential richness distribution of Quercus L. in China was predicted using the MaxEnt model under present climatic conditions and three different emission scenarios in the years 2050 and 2070 with six General Circulation Models (GCMs). The results revealed that Quercus L. at present was primarily distributed in the mountainous areas of southwestern China. The simulations indicated that climate change could affect the spatial pattern of the richness distribution, and if climate change intensified, its impact would gradually increase. As temperatures rise, the distribution of Quercus L. was predicted to be concentrated, and suitable areas of certain species would contract. These species may migrate to high altitudes or high latitudes. The high percentage of species lost is the reason for the higher turnover values in the mountainous areas, while other regions are mostly be influenced by the high percentage of species gained associated with the northward shift of species. Predicting changes in the richness distribution pattern of Quercus L. as a result of climate change can help us understand the biogeography of Quercus L. and enact conservation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32701271, year = {2020}, author = {Pradhan, P and Kriewald, S and Costa, L and Rybski, D and Benton, TG and Fischer, G and Kropp, JP}, title = {Urban Food Systems: How Regionalization Can Contribute to Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {54}, number = {17}, pages = {10551-10560}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.0c02739}, pmid = {32701271}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Food ; Food Supply ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Refuse Disposal ; }, abstract = {Cities will play a key role in the grand challenge of nourishing a growing global population, because, due to their population density, they set the demand. To ensure that food systems are sustainable, as well as nourishing, one solution often suggested is to shorten their supply chains toward a regional rather than a global basis. While such regional systems may have a range of costs and benefits, we investigate the mitigation potential of regionalized urban food systems by examining the greenhouse gas emissions associated with food transport. Using data on food consumption for 7108 urban administrative units (UAUs), we simulate total transport emissions for both regionalized and globalized supply chains. In regionalized systems, the UAUs' demands are fulfilled by peripheral food production, whereas to simulate global supply chains, food demand is met from an international pool (where the origin can be any location globally). We estimate that regionalized systems could reduce current emissions from food transport. However, because longer supply chains benefit from maximizing comparative advantage, this emission reduction would require closing yield gaps, reducing food waste, shifting toward diversified farming, and consuming seasonal produce. Regionalization of food systems will be an essential component to limit global warming to well below 2 °C in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32700850, year = {2020}, author = {Ode Geo, L and Halim,  and Rachmasari Ariani, WO}, title = {Farming Production Analysis of Seaweed and Farmer's Perception towards Climate Change Effect in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia.}, journal = {Pakistan journal of biological sciences : PJBS}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {1004-1009}, doi = {10.3923/pjbs.2020.1004.1009}, pmid = {32700850}, issn = {1812-5735}, mesh = {*Aquaculture ; *Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Farmers/*psychology ; Humans ; Indonesia ; *Seaweed ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The seaweed farming has a high economic value for the community's economic development as well as one of the cores of the national economic support. Therefore, it is relatively easy for farmers to adopt its technical cultivation. Moreover, 80% of fishery products in Southeast Sulawesi are seaweed commodities. This study was to know the income of seaweed in Southeast Sulawesi and the coping strategy of climate change effect.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: This research was carried out from September-December, 2019 in Regency of Central Buton and Bombana, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. There were 311 farmers selected by simple random sampling. Primary data was collected through direct face to face interviews guided by questionnaires, while secondary data was obtained from documentary observation from related institutions. This was then analyzed descriptively.<br><br>RESULTS: The result revealed that the average income of seaweed farmers is approximately IDR 8,566,000 for each production season. Moreover, in conforming climate change, farmers had been prepared with superior and qualified seed and strong construction stretch which was relatively safe for deeper waters. At the same time, they also had livelihood alternatives.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results of the analysis and discussion showed that average income of seaweed farmers was IDR 8,566,000 for each production season, R-C ratio value is 2.30 and it means that seaweed farming is financially profitable to continue to work on.}, }
@article {pmid32700843, year = {2020}, author = {Kyu Lee, S and An Dang, T}, title = {Crop Calendar Shift as a Climate Change Adaptation Solution for Cassava Cultivation Area of Binh Thuan Province, Vietnam.}, journal = {Pakistan journal of biological sciences : PJBS}, volume = {23}, number = {7}, pages = {946-952}, doi = {10.3923/pjbs.2020.946.952}, pmid = {32700843}, issn = {1812-5735}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Manihot/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Vietnam ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Binh Thuan Province is one of the large cassava cultivation areas in Vietnam. However, in recent years the cassava crops are facing the increased risks of irrigation water shortage due to drought and abnormal change of rainfall under the impacts of climate variability (ICV), leading to reduce crop yield. The study was, therefore, conducted to define a suitable period for planting cassava crops in Binh Thuan Province, Vietnam to reduce the negative impacts of weather factors.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was conducted using the AquaCrop model to predict the cassava yield corresponding to different crop calendars to define the suitable planting period. The model performance was appraised through the calibration and validation process with the index of agreement (d), correlation coefficient (r) up to 0.80 and RMSE lower than 0.40.<br><br>RESULTS: The results carry out that the cassava yield can be reached 48.18 t ha-1 if the crop calendar (CC) is early shifted from 14-21 days compared with the current crop calendar (CCC) for spring crop while an increase of approximately 5.16% can be achieved if the CC is delayed from 7-14 days for summer crop season. The results stated that the proposed model is suitable for defining the CC based on its simulated biomass and cassava yield.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The study indicated that rainfall plays an important role in the planting calendar of cassava crops. Through, it is also confirmed that planting calendars of cassava crops is not appropriate for current weather conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32700062, year = {2020}, author = {Paudel, S and Lin, PA and Hoover, K and Felton, GW and Rajotte, EG}, title = {Asymmetric Responses to Climate Change: Temperature Differentially Alters Herbivore Salivary Elicitor and Host Plant Responses to Herbivory.}, journal = {Journal of chemical ecology}, volume = {46}, number = {9}, pages = {891-905}, pmid = {32700062}, issn = {1573-1561}, support = {AID-OAA-L-15-00001//United States Agency for International Development/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Feeding Behavior/physiology ; Glucose Oxidase/*metabolism ; Herbivory ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Hot Temperature ; Larva/enzymology/physiology ; Lepidoptera/*physiology ; Solanum lycopersicum/metabolism/*parasitology ; Plant Leaves/metabolism/*parasitology ; Saliva/enzymology ; Salivary Proteins and Peptides/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The effect of temperature on insect-plant interactions in the face of changing climate is complex as the plant, its herbivores and their interactions are usually affected differentially leading to an asymmetry in response. Using experimental warming and a combination of biochemical and herbivory bioassays, the effects of elevated temperatures and herbivore damage (Helicoverpa zea) on resistance and tolerance traits of Solanum lycopersicum var. Better boy (tomato), as well as herbivory performance and salivary defense elicitors were examined. Insects and plants were differentially sensitive towards warming within the experimental temperature range. Herbivore growth rate increased with temperature, whereas plants growth as well as the ability to tolerate stress measured by photosynthesis recovery and regrowth ability were compromised at the highest temperature regime. In particular, temperature influenced the caterpillars' capacity to induce plant defenses due to changes in the amount of a salivary defense elicitor, glucose oxidase (GOX). This was further complexed by the temperature effects on plant inducibility, which was significantly enhanced at an above-optimum temperature; this paralleled with an increased plants resistance to herbivory but significantly varied between previously damaged and undamaged leaves. Elevated temperatures produced asymmetry in species' responses and changes in the relationship among species, indicating a more complicated response under a climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid32699234, year = {2020}, author = {Tsai, HY and Rubenstein, DR and Fan, YM and Yuan, TN and Chen, BF and Tang, Y and Chen, IC and Shen, SF}, title = {Author Correction: Locally-adapted reproductive photoperiodism determines population vulnerability to climate change in burying beetles.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3754}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-17567-w}, pmid = {32699234}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32698499, year = {2020}, author = {Li, F and Zhou, H and Huang, DS and Guan, P}, title = {Global Research Output and Theme Trends on Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: A Restrospective Bibliometric and Co-Word Biclustering Investigation of Papers Indexed in PubMed (1999-2018).}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {32698499}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Bibliometrics ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Medical Subject Headings ; Periodicals as Topic ; PubMed ; *Publications ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a challenge for the sustainable development of an international economy and society. The impact of climate change on infectious diseases has been regarded as one of the most urgent research topics. In this paper, an analysis of the bibliometrics, co-word biclustering, and strategic diagram was performed to evaluate global scientific production, hotspots, and developing trends regarding climate change and infectious diseases, based on the data of two decades (1999-2008 and 2009-2018) from PubMed. According to the search strategy and inclusion criteria, a total of 1443 publications were found on the topic of climate change and infectious diseases. There has been increasing research productivity in this field, which has been supported by a wide range of subject categories. The top highly-frequent major MeSH (medical subject headings)/subheading combination terms could be divided into four clusters for the first decade and five for the second decade using a biclustering analysis. At present, some significant public health challenges (global health, and travel and tropical climate, etc.) are at the center of the whole target research network. In the last ten years, "Statistical model", "Diarrhea", "Dengue", "Ecosystem and biodiversity", and "Zoonoses" have been considered as emerging hotspots, but they still need more attention for further development.}, }
@article {pmid32697859, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, J and Tian, H and Shi, H and Zhang, J and Wang, X and Pan, S and Yang, J}, title = {Increased greenhouse gas emissions intensity of major croplands in China: Implications for food security and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {6116-6133}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15290}, pmid = {32697859}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2017YFA0604702//National Key R &amp; D Program of China/ ; 2018YFA0606001//National Key R &amp; D Program of China/ ; KFJ-STSZDTP-0//Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; SKLURE2017-1-6//Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; 41961124006//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 1903722//US National Science Foundation/ ; G-F-19-56910//Andrew Carnegie Fellowship Award/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Ecosystem ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Food Security ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Balancing crop production and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture soil requires a better understanding and quantification of crop GHG emissions intensity, a measure of GHG emissions per unit crop production. Here we conduct a state-of-the-art estimate of the spatial-temporal variability of GHG emissions intensities for wheat, maize, and rice in China from 1949 to 2012 using an improved agricultural ecosystem model (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model-Agriculture Version 2.0) and meta-analysis covering 172 field-GHG emissions experiments. The results show that the GHG emissions intensities of these croplands from 1949 to 2012, on average, were 0.10-1.31 kg CO2 -eq/kg, with a significant increase rate of 1.84-3.58 × 10[-3] kg CO2 -eq kg[-1] year[-1] . Nitrogen fertilizer was the dominant factor contributing to the increase in GHG emissions intensity in northern China and increased its impact in southern China in the 2000s. Increasing GHG emissions intensity implies that excessive fertilizer failed to markedly stimulate crop yield increase in China but still exacerbated soil GHG emissions. This study found that overfertilization of more than 60% was mainly located in the winter wheat-summer maize rotation systems in the North China Plain, the winter wheat-rice rotation systems in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southwest China, and most of the double rice systems in the South. Our simulations suggest that roughly a one-third reduction in the current N fertilizer application level over these "overfertilization" regions would not significantly influence crop yield but decrease soil GHG emissions by 29.60%-32.50% and GHG emissions intensity by 0.13-0.25 kg CO2 -eq/kg. This reduction is about 29% and 5% of total agricultural soil GHG emissions in China and the world, respectively. This study suggests that improving nitrogen use efficiency would be an effective strategy to mitigate GHG emissions and sustain China's food security.}, }
@article {pmid32688319, year = {2020}, author = {Kobusińska, ME and Lewandowski, KK and Panasiuk, A and Łęczyński, L and Urbaniak, M and Ossowski, T and Niemirycz, E}, title = {Precursors of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in Arctic and Antarctic marine sediments: Environmental concern in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {260}, number = {}, pages = {127605}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2020.127605}, pmid = {32688319}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Benzofurans/analysis ; Climate Change ; Dibenzofurans/*analysis ; Dibenzofurans, Polychlorinated ; Dioxins ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Environmental Pollution ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Pentachlorophenol ; Polychlorinated Dibenzodioxins/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) and their precursors - pentachlorophenol (PCP) and triclosan (TCS), constitute a group of persistent, highly toxic multimedia pollutants, being easily transported via atmosphere over long distances, thus particularly threatening to the polar areas. The global fate of PCDD/Fs is temperature-dependent, and their transfer and immobilization at the Poles are described by the grasshopper effect and the cold trap phenomenon. The aim of this interdisciplinary study was to perform a preliminary assessment of the present state of pollution of Arctic and Antarctic marine sediments by PCP and TCS along with determination of PCDD/Fs contamination by immunoassay. Sediments from 20 stations were collected during two polar expeditions (2013-2016). The study area covered Hornsund Fjord and the southwest coast of Wedel-Jarlsberg Land (Arctic) - Skodde Bay, Nottingham Bay, Isbjørnhamna Bay and Admiralty Bay (Antarctica) - Suszczewski Cove, Halfmoon Cove and Herve Cove. The studied contaminants were quantified in 60% of the collected sediments, with almost half exceeding the environmentally safe levels according European regulations and worldwide literature. The determined levels of PCP, TCS and PCDD/F in Arctic and Antarctic sediments were to be comparable to those reported in the southern Baltic Sea located in the intense industrialized mid-latitudes. Maximum concentrations were observed in the vicinity of retreating, marine terminating glaciers. This observation confirms reemission of POPs into the global cycle with respect to the worldwide ocean warming. The results of this study should gain attention of the international and regional environmental agencies as well as the main chlorine production decision makers.}, }
@article {pmid32686001, year = {2020}, author = {Nguyen, QA and Hens, L and Nguyen, N and MacAlister, C and Lebel, L}, title = {Explaining Intentions by Vietnamese Schoolchildren to Adopt Pro-Environmental Behaviors in Response to Climate Change Using Theories of Persuasive Communication.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {66}, number = {5}, pages = {845-857}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01334-0}, pmid = {32686001}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Asian People ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Intention ; Persuasive Communication ; Vietnam ; }, abstract = {Climate change adaptation capacity remains low among vulnerable communities in developing countries such as Vietnam. Vector-borne diseases as dengue fever are increasing as a result of changing weather patterns. This study aims to examine the impact of key psychological variables in the Theory of Reasoned Action, the Theory of Planned Behavior, an Extended Parallel Process Model and the Social Cognitive Theory on the intention of schoolchildren to engage in climate change adaptation behavior-in this study, practices which would help reduce the risks of contracting dengue fever. It also seeks to identify the most salient predictors of the behavioral intention across these theories. Data were obtained from 796 Vietnamese schoolchildren who completed questionnaires measuring constructs of the four theories. Multivariate data analysis demonstrated that self-efficacy and severity appeared to be significant and consistent predictors of the individual's intention to reduce dengue fever. The results provide practical suggestions for the use of the theorical constructs tested in climate change communication campaigns in Vietnam and insights generally on pro-environmental behavior change.}, }
@article {pmid32685164, year = {2020}, author = {Hultine, KR and Allan, GJ and Blasini, D and Bothwell, HM and Cadmus, A and Cooper, HF and Doughty, CE and Gehring, CA and Gitlin, AR and Grady, KC and Hull, JB and Keith, AR and Koepke, DF and Markovchick, L and Corbin Parker, JM and Sankey, TT and Whitham, TG}, title = {Adaptive capacity in the foundation tree species Populus fremontii: implications for resilience to climate change and non-native species invasion in the American Southwest.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {coaa061}, pmid = {32685164}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Populus fremontii (Fremont cottonwood) is recognized as one of the most important foundation tree species in the southwestern USA and northern Mexico because of its ability to structure communities across multiple trophic levels, drive ecosystem processes and influence biodiversity via genetic-based functional trait variation. However, the areal extent of P. fremontii cover has declined dramatically over the last century due to the effects of surface water diversions, non-native species invasions and more recently climate change. Consequently, P. fremontii gallery forests are considered amongst the most threatened forest types in North America. In this paper, we unify four conceptual areas of genes to ecosystems research related to P. fremontii's capacity to survive or even thrive under current and future environmental conditions: (i) hydraulic function related to canopy thermal regulation during heat waves; (ii) mycorrhizal mutualists in relation to resiliency to climate change and invasion by the non-native tree/shrub, Tamarix; (iii) phenotypic plasticity as a mechanism for coping with rapid changes in climate; and (iv) hybridization between P. fremontii and other closely related Populus species where enhanced vigour of hybrids may preserve the foundational capacity of Populus in the face of environmental change. We also discuss opportunities to scale these conceptual areas from genes to the ecosystem level via remote sensing. We anticipate that the exploration of these conceptual areas of research will facilitate solutions to climate change with a foundation species that is recognized as being critically important for biodiversity conservation and could serve as a model for adaptive management of arid regions in the southwestern USA and around the world.}, }
@article {pmid32683891, year = {2022}, author = {Trájer, AJ}, title = {The changing risk patterns of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece due to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {32}, number = {3}, pages = {665-690}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2020.1793918}, pmid = {32683891}, issn = {1369-1619}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Greece/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Malaria, Vivax/epidemiology ; Plasmodium vivax ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {It has great importance to study the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece because the country can be the origin of the spread of vivax malaria to the northern areas. The potential lengths of the transmission seasons of Plasmodium vivax malaria were forecasted for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 and were combined. The potential ranges were predicted by Climate Envelope Modelling Method. The models show moderate areal increase and altitudinal shift in the malaria-endemic areas in Greece in the future. The length of the transmission season is predicted to increase by 1 to 2 months, mainly in the mid-elevation regions and the Aegean Archipelago. The combined factors also predict the decrease of vivax malaria-free area in Greece. It can be concluded that rather the elongation of the transmission season will lead to an increase of the malaria risk in Greece than the increase in the suitability values.}, }
@article {pmid32683529, year = {2020}, author = {Raoufi, RS and Soufizadeh, S}, title = {Simulation of the impacts of climate change on phenology, growth, and yield of various rice genotypes in humid sub-tropical environments using AquaCrop-Rice.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {10}, pages = {1657-1673}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01946-5}, pmid = {32683529}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Genotype ; Iran ; *Oryza ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In the light of continuing anthropogenic climate change, it is important to gain a deep understanding of rice genotypic behavior under climate change. Most efforts on modeling rice performance under climate change focused on studying some aspects of climate change only such as CO2 concentration ([CO2]) or temperature. A comprehensive study on the role of genotypic variability in rice under diverse [CO2] × temperature × rainfall × representative concentration pathway (RCP) × environment is rare. The objective of the present study was to use AquaCrop-Rice model to study the impact of climate change on different rice cultivars in northern Iran. Three common improved and local rice cultivars were chosen, and their growth and yield behavior were simulated under three environments, three RCPs (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), four temperature (+ 1 °C, + 2 °C, + 3 °C, + 4 °C), and two rainfall (± 20%) scenarios under two future timeframes (2020-2051 and 2052-2083). Results indicated different responses of rice cultivars under climate change. In general, improved cultivars acted better than the local cultivar although interaction with environment was also observed. Increase in [CO2] and temperature most often favored rice yield. However, RCP8.5 along with temperature scenario + 1 °C resulted in the highest aboveground biomass and yield. Rainfall variation was not of considerable importance. Phenology (flowering and physiological maturity) was accelerated especially by temperature. The length of the vegetative phase was more influenced by temperature than the length of the generative phase. Our simulations also indicated a potential for adaptation of improved cultivars under increasing [CO2] through their reduced stomatal conductance.}, }
@article {pmid32681892, year = {2020}, author = {Cunsolo, A and Harper, SL and Minor, K and Hayes, K and Williams, KG and Howard, C}, title = {Ecological grief and anxiety: the start of a healthy response to climate change?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {7}, pages = {e261-e263}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30144-3}, pmid = {32681892}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Anxiety/*psychology ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Environment ; *Grief ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32678946, year = {2020}, author = {Grant, CA and Hicks, AL}, title = {Global Warming Impacts of Residential Electricity Consumption: Agent-Based Modeling of Rooftop Solar Panel Adoption in Los Angeles County, California.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {1008-1018}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.4315}, pmid = {32678946}, issn = {1551-3793}, support = {//Sustainable LA/ ; //Sustainable LA - UCLA Grand Challenges/ ; }, mesh = {*Electricity ; Environment ; *Global Warming ; Los Angeles ; Systems Analysis ; }, abstract = {Solar photovoltaics (PV) are a renewable electricity technology with lower carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 e) impacts compared to fossil electricity, making it a technology of interest with respect to combatting global climate change. This paper combines agent-based modeling (ABM) with life cycle assessment (LCA) to simulate rooftop solar PV adoption in Los Angeles (LA) County from 2018-2050 and generate CO2 e impact data at the societal level to compare PV and grid electricity. With respect to solar PV panels, consumer adoption is the "pull" that moves the system and corresponding life cycle CO2 e impacts forward. ABM is used to evaluate the impact of policies and evolutions in technology regarding the adoption of solar PV. Life cycle assessment is used to quantify the life cycle CO2 e impacts of solar PV (including raw materials, manufacturing, and use). The results show that scenarios that increase PV adoption also increase the CO2 e impacts from solar PV use in the short term, due to the raw materials and manufacturing portions of the life cycle. Yet, in the long term, adoption of solar PV may provide CO2 e impact savings from offsetting grid electricity (although this is dependent on the carbon intensity of the electricity sources). The CO2 e impacts of solar panels are dominated by the raw materials and manufacturing phases on a product level basis, but the use phase contributes to the majority of environmental impact savings from an adoption and societal-level perspective. Future work may apply the methodology to other locations in the United States to evaluate if solar panels are an advantageous electricity source compared to the environmental impacts of the electricity grid. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:1008-1018. © 2020 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid32678834, year = {2020}, author = {de Moraes, KF and Santos, MPD and Gonçalves, GSR and de Oliveira, GL and Gomes, LB and Lima, MGM}, title = {Climate change and bird extinctions in the Amazon.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e0236103}, pmid = {32678834}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {In recent years, carbon dioxide emissions have been potentiated by several anthropogenic processes that culminate in climate change, which in turn directly threatens biodiversity and the resilience of natural ecosystems. Tropical rainforests are among the most impacted biological realms. The Belém endemism center, which is one of the several endemism centers in Amazon, is located in the most affected area within the so-called "Deforestation Arc." Moreover, this region harbors a high concentration of Amazonian endangered bird species, of which 56% of them are considered to be under the threat of extinction. In this work, we sought to evaluate the current and future impacts of both climate change and deforestation on the distribution of endemic birds in the Belém Area of Endemism (BEA). Thus, we generated species distribution models for the 16 endemic bird species considering the current and two future gas emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic). We also evaluated climate change impacts on these birds in three different dispersal contexts. Our results indicate that BAE, the endemic taxa will lose an average of 73% of suitable areas by 2050. At least six of these birds species will have less than 10% or no future suitable habitat in all emission scenarios. One of the main mechanisms used to mitigate the impacts of climate change on these species in the near future is to assess the current system of protected areas. It is necessary to ensure that these areas will continue being effective in conserving these species even under climate change. The "Gurupi Mosaic" and the "Rio-Capim" watershed are areas of great importance because they are considered climate refuges according to our study. Thus, conservation efforts should be directed to the maintenance and preservation of these two large remnants of vegetation in addition to creating ecological corridors between them.}, }
@article {pmid32677074, year = {2020}, author = {LeMoine, MT and Eby, LA and Clancy, CG and Nyce, LG and Jakober, MJ and Isaak, DJ}, title = {Landscape resistance mediates native fish species distribution shifts and vulnerability to climate change in riverscapes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {5492-5508}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15281}, pmid = {32677074}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//USGS Montana Water Center/ ; //Univeristy of Montana/ ; MONZ17004//USDA McIntire Stennis/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fishes ; Rivers ; Trout ; }, abstract = {A broader understanding of how landscape resistance influences climate change vulnerability for many species is needed, as is an understanding of how barriers to dispersal may impact vulnerability. Freshwater biodiversity is at particular risk, but previous studies have focused on popular cold-water fishes (e.g., salmon, trout, and char) with relatively large body sizes and mobility. Those fishes may be able to track habitat change more adeptly than less mobile species. Smaller, less mobile fishes are rarely represented in studies demonstrating effects of climate change, but depending on their thermal tolerance, they may be particularly vulnerable to environmental change. By revisiting 280 sites over a 20 year interval throughout a warming riverscape, we described changes in occupancy (i.e., site extirpation and colonization probabilities) and assessed the environmental conditions associated with those changes for four fishes spanning a range of body sizes, thermal and habitat preferences. Two larger-bodied trout species exhibited small changes in site occupancy, with bull trout experiencing a 9.2% (95% CI = 8.3%-10.1%) reduction, mostly in warmer stream reaches, and westslope cutthroat trout experiencing a nonsignificant 1% increase. The small-bodied cool water slimy sculpin was originally distributed broadly throughout the network and experienced a 48.0% (95% CI = 42.0%-54.0%) reduction in site occupancy with declines common in warmer stream reaches and areas subject to wildfire disturbances. The small-bodied comparatively warmer water longnose dace primarily occupied larger streams and increased its occurrence in the lower portions of connected tributaries during the study period. Distribution shifts for sculpin and dace were significantly constrained by barriers, which included anthropogenic water diversions, natural step-pools and cascades in steeper upstream reaches. Our results suggest that aquatic communities exhibit a range of responses to climate change, and that improving passage and fluvial connectivity will be important climate adaptation tactics for conserving aquatic biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid32674064, year = {2020}, author = {Høye, TT}, title = {Arthropods and climate change - arctic challenges and opportunities.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {40-45}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2020.06.002}, pmid = {32674064}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Arthropods/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The harsh climate, limited human infrastructures, and basic autecological knowledge gaps represent substantial challenges for studying arthropods in the Arctic. At the same time, rapid climate change, low species diversity, and strong collaborative networks provide unique and underexploited Arctic opportunities for understanding species responses to environmental change and testing ecological theory. Here, I provide an overview of individual, population, and ecosystem level responses to climate change in Arctic arthropods. I focus on thermal performance, life history variation, population dynamics, community composition, diversity, and biotic interactions. The species-poor Arctic represents a unique opportunity for testing novel, automated arthropod monitoring methods. The Arctic can also potentially provide insights to further understand and mitigate the effects of climate change on arthropods worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid32673912, year = {2020}, author = {Cao, B and Yin, Z}, title = {Future atmospheric circulations benefit ozone pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei with global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {743}, number = {}, pages = {140645}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140645}, pmid = {32673912}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Surface ozone pollution has become increasingly serious in recent years. Ozone pollution will damage human health and reducing social productivity in China. Basing on an ozone weather index (OWI) that captured the effects of climate on the ground-level ozone, large ensemble simulations by the Community Earth System Model were introduced to project future impacts of atmospheric circulation on ozone pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in late-21[st] century. In the future, atmospheric circulations will favour the control of ozone pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The OWI decreased overall during the 21[st] century, which was nearly ignored by other studies on ozone projections. The OWI decrease was mainly due to the increase in regional precipitation and partly due to the changes of wind and the temperature difference between 200 hPa and lower-troposphere. The increased total precipitation in the 21[st] century, mainly due to the increase in convectional precipitation, weakened the production of surface ozone by its shading effect (related to more cloud cover) and wet deposition impact. During 2061-2100, the South Asia High will move southward, and the west Pacific subtropical high will shift eastward; thus, the convergence of water vapour will mainly occur in South China. Consequently, the large-scale precipitation will decrease over northern China. However, because of climate warming, the increase in specific humidity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH) will enhance convectional precipitation, which will be more than 4 times the decrease in large-scale precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid32673306, year = {2020}, author = {Cuervo-Robayo, AP and Ureta, C and Gómez-Albores, MA and Meneses-Mosquera, AK and Téllez-Valdés, O and Martínez-Meyer, E}, title = {One hundred years of climate change in Mexico.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e0209808}, pmid = {32673306}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Climate Change/*history ; Databases, Factual ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Mexico ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Spatial assessments of historical climate change provide information that can be used by scientists to analyze climate variation over time and evaluate, for example, its effects on biodiversity, in order to focus their research and conservation efforts. Despite the fact that there are global climatic databases available at high spatial resolution, they represent a short temporal window that impedes evaluating historical changes of climate and their impacts on biodiversity. To fill this gap, we developed climate gridded surfaces for Mexico for three periods that cover most of the 20th and early 21st centuries: t1-1940 (1910-1949), t2-1970 (1950-1979) and t3-2000 (1980-2009), and used these interpolated surfaces to describe how climate has changed over time, both countrywide and in its 19 biogeographic provinces. Results from our characterization of climate change indicate that the mean annual temperature has increased by nearly 0.2°C on average across the whole country from t2-1970 to t3-2000. However, changes have not been spatially uniform: Nearctic provinces in the north have suffered higher temperature increases than southern tropical regions. Central and southern provinces cooled at the beginning of the 20th century but warmed consistently since the 1970s. Precipitation increased between t1-1940 and t2-1970 across the country, more notably in the northern provinces, and it decreased between t2-1970 and t3-2000 in most of the country. Results on the historical climate conditions in Mexico may be useful for climate change analyses for both environmental and social sciences. Nonetheless, our climatology was based on information from climate stations for which 9.4-36.2% presented inhomogeneities over time probably owing to non-climatic factors, and climate station density changed over time. Therefore, the estimated changes observed in our analysis need to be interpreted cautiously.}, }
@article {pmid32671669, year = {2020}, author = {Vanderkelen, I and Zscheischler, J and Gudmundsson, L and Keuler, K and Rineau, F and Beenaerts, N and Vangronsveld, J and Vicca, S and Thiery, W}, title = {A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {10}, pages = {1709-1727}, pmid = {32671669}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {FWOTM920//Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; Fel-45 15-1//ETH Z&#xfc;rich Foundation/ ; BOF12BR01//Universiteit Hasselt/ ; 08M03VGRJ//Universiteit Hasselt/ ; G0H4AA7N//Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32671576, year = {2020}, author = {Odom, RH and Ford, WM}, title = {Assessing the Vulnerability of Military Installations in the Coterminous United States to Potential Biome Shifts Resulting from Rapid Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {564-589}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01331-3}, pmid = {32671576}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Humans ; *Military Personnel ; Trees ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate-change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, and invasive species. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types, and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late-century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low-B1, moderate-A1B, and high-A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess installation vulnerability (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation, and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States, and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of training, and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat, and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision-support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.}, }
@article {pmid32671314, year = {2020}, author = {Rehr, RC and Bandaragoda, C and Zaitchik, BF and Wimberly, MC}, title = {A GeoHealth Response to a Geoscience Community Climate Change Position Statement.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {4}, number = {7}, pages = {e2020GH000265}, pmid = {32671314}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {The American Geophysical Union (AGU) issues position statements reflecting the state of the science and scientific consensus. AGU position statements can be used to support public and institutional policy development, conversations with peers and policymakers, and formal and informal education. The recent climate change position statement, "Society Must Address the Growing Climate Crisis now," provides important baseline information but lacks detail on critical climate and health impacts and actions for AGU and members. This commentary shares feedback from the AGU's GeoHealth Section and encourages members to use the AGU statement and engage in the comment process for other statements.}, }
@article {pmid32669351, year = {2020}, author = {Green, L and Wood, S and Bellis, MA}, title = {Rising to the triple challenge of covid-19, Brexit, and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {370}, number = {}, pages = {m2798}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.m2798}, pmid = {32669351}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; *Coronavirus Infections ; European Union ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; *Pneumonia, Viral ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Socioeconomic Factors ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid32669042, year = {2021}, author = {Lahn, B}, title = {Changing climate change: The carbon budget and the modifying-work of the IPCC.}, journal = {Social studies of science}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {3-27}, pmid = {32669042}, issn = {1460-3659}, mesh = {*Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Politics ; }, abstract = {Over the last 10 years, the concept of a global 'carbon budget' of allowable CO2 emissions has become ubiquitous in climate science and policy. Since it was brought to prominence by the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, the carbon budget has changed how climate change is enacted as an issue of public concern, from determining the optimal rate of future emissions to establishing a fixed limit for how much emissions should be allowed before they must be stopped altogether. Exploring the emergence of the carbon budget concept, this article shows how the assessment process of the IPCC has offered scientific experts the means to modify how the climate issue is problematized, and discusses the implications of this 'modifying-work' for the politics of climate change. It finds that the 'modified climate issue' must be seen as an outcome of the ordinary work within established scientific and political institutions, and the agency these institutions afford scientists to enact the issue differently. On this basis, it argues that the case of the carbon budget holds important insights not only for the relationship between climate science and policy, but also for the pragmatist literature on 'issue formation' in STS.}, }
@article {pmid32668537, year = {2020}, author = {Cai, M and Murtazashvili, I and Murtazashvili, JB and Salahodjaev, R}, title = {Patience and climate change mitigation: Global evidence.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {186}, number = {}, pages = {109552}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109552}, pmid = {32668537}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Complex policy problems such as climate mitigation have an economic, political, and social dimension. We focus on one of the social dimensions of climate change mitigation: the link between society-wide patience (future orientation) and adoption of public policies to combat global greenhouse gas emissions. Theoretically, future-oriented societies are more likely to accept current costs in exchange for long-run benefits posed by climate change mitigation than impatient (present-oriented) ones, cooperate in efforts to combat climate change, and support future-oriented governments. We evaluate this claim using evidence from a cross-section of countries. Controlling for other theoretically relevant factors, we find that patient societies are more likely to adopt public policies to mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32668366, year = {2020}, author = {de Azevedo, TS and Lorenz, C and Chiaravalloti-Neto, F and Sallum, MAM}, title = {Kerteszia cruzii and extra-Amazonian malaria in Brazil: Challenges due to climate change in the Atlantic Forest.}, journal = {Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases}, volume = {85}, number = {}, pages = {104456}, doi = {10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104456}, pmid = {32668366}, issn = {1567-7257}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles/*parasitology/physiology ; Brazil/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology ; Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology/*parasitology ; Malaria, Vivax/epidemiology/*parasitology ; Mosquito Vectors/parasitology/physiology ; Plasmodium falciparum/*parasitology ; Plasmodium vivax/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {Kerteszia cruzii is a sylvatic mosquito and the primary vector of Plasmodium spp., which can cause malaria in humans in areas outside the Amazon River basin in Brazil. Anthropic changes in the natural environments are the major drivers of massive deforestation and local climate change, with serious impacts on the dynamics of mosquito communities and on the risk of acquiring malaria. Considering the lack of information on the dynamics of malaria transmission in areas across the Atlantic Forest biome, where Ke. cruzii is the dominant vector, and the impact of climate drivers of malaria, the present study aimed to: (i) investigate the occurrence and survival rate of Ke. cruzii based on the distinct vegetation profiles found in areas across the coastal region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biome; (ii) estimate the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and survival rates of P. vivax and P. falciparum parasites in Ke. cruzii under current and future scenarios. The potential distribution of Plasmodium spp. was estimated using simulation analyses under distinct scenarios of average temperature increases from 1 °C to 3.7 °C. Our results showed that two conditions are necessary to explain the occurrence and survival of Ke. cruzii: warm temperature and presence of the Atlantic Forest biome. Moreover, both Plasmodium species showed a tendency to decrease their EIP and increase their estimated survival rates in a scenario of higher temperature. Our findings support that the high-risk malaria areas may include the southern region of the distribution range of the Atlantic Forest biome in the coming years. Despite its limitations and assumptions, the present study provides robust evidence of areas with potential to be impacted by malaria incidence in a future scenario. These areas should be monitored in the next decades regarding the occurrence of the mosquito vector and the potential for malaria persistence and increased occurrence.}, }
@article {pmid32666220, year = {2020}, author = {Fourment, M and Ferrer, M and Barbeau, G and Quénol, H}, title = {Local Perceptions, Vulnerability and Adaptive Responses to Climate Change and Variability in a Winegrowing Region in Uruguay.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {590-599}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01330-4}, pmid = {32666220}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Perception ; Temperature ; Uruguay ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Understanding climate variability in a winegrowing region is fundamental to understanding how its vineyards can adapt to climate change. For Uruguay, studying the vulnerability and adaptive responses of vineyards to climate change and climate variability is relevant due to its winegrowing region's economic importance and cultural heritage. Winegrowers and technical advisors were interviewed to evaluate their perceptions of climate change, vulnerability of their vineyards and how to adapt them. The main results showed that winegrowers had a clear perception of annual climate variability. The respondents highlighted the extreme climate events that had occurred over the previous few years and 71% of them believed that they had increased in frequency. Despite the perception of increase in climate variability in the region, they did not associate it with climate change. Overall, 43% of respondents agreed that changes in certain viticulture practices in recent years could have been due to climate change, especially those related to the preventive use of pesticides. The respondents identified climate risks that resulted in "bad" years for yield and quality (increase in extreme events (e.g., storms, hail), decrease in "cold" units in winter (i.e., temperatures <0 °C), increase in "hot" hours (i.e., >35 °C), increase in precipitation during the growing season and ripening period) as well as their impacts on vineyards. An adaptation matrix was developed from the viticulture practices that the winegrowers used in response to climate variability. Medium- and long-term adaptive responses to climate change can be based on the knowledge of winegrowers and their advisors.}, }
@article {pmid32662693, year = {2020}, author = {Biagioni, B and Annesi-Maesano, I and D'Amato, G and Cecchi, L}, title = {The rising of allergic respiratory diseases in a changing world: from climate change to migration.}, journal = {Expert review of respiratory medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {973-986}, doi = {10.1080/17476348.2020.1794829}, pmid = {32662693}, issn = {1747-6356}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Allergens/adverse effects ; Asthma/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology ; Respiration Disorders/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The rising of allergic respiratory diseases (ARDs) suggests a decisive role of environmental factors, that have dramatically changed in the last decades.<br><br>AREAS COVERED: This review addresses various aspects of the external exposome acting on the development, progression, clinical presentation and severity of ARDs. Climate change, air pollution and biodiversity loss act directly and through their complex interactions on atopic risk: reacent foundings on these aspects are discussed herein. The review also focuses on migration studies, underling the possible role of migrant status as an experimental model to study environment effects on atopy onset and progression.<br><br>EXPERT OPINION: Future perspective on this topic include prevention and mitigation strategies in regard to pollution and climate change, improvement of environmental monitoring methods, implementation of public health policies, further advances in 'omics' research and knowledge, prospective and immunological research on migrant populations and new policies to face human mobility.}, }
@article {pmid32662439, year = {2020}, author = {Champion, C and Broadhurst, MK and Ewere, EE and Benkendorff, K and Butcherine, P and Wolfe, K and Coleman, MA}, title = {Resilience to the interactive effects of climate change and discard stress in the commercially important blue swimmer crab (Portunus armatus).}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {159}, number = {}, pages = {105009}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105009}, pmid = {32662439}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Brachyura ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Salinity ; }, abstract = {Globally, millions of people depend on nutritional benefits from seafood consumption, but few studies have tested for effects of near-future climate change on seafood health and quality. Quantitative assessments of the interactive effects of climate change and discarding of fisheries resources are also lacking, despite ~10% of global catches being discarded annually. Utilising the harvested blue swimmer crab (Portunus armatus), we experimentally tested the effects of near-future temperature and salinity treatments under simulated capture and discarding on a suite of health and nutritional quality parameters. We show that nutritional quality (protein, lipids, moisture content and fatty acid composition) was not significantly affected by near-future climate change. Further, stress biomarkers (catalase and glutathione S-transferases activity and glycogen content) did not differ significantly among treatments following simulated capture and discarding. These results support the inherent resilience of P. armatus to short-term environmental change, and indicate that negative physiological responses associated with discarding may not be exacerbated in a future ocean. We suggest that harvested estuarine species, and thus the industries and food security they underpin, may be resilient to the future effects of climate change due to their adaptation to naturally variable habitats.}, }
@article {pmid32662432, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, Z and Capinha, C and Karger, DN and Turon, X and MacIsaac, HJ and Zhan, A}, title = {Impacts of climate change on geographical distributions of invasive ascidians.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {159}, number = {}, pages = {104993}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.104993}, pmid = {32662432}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Introduced Species ; Temperature ; *Urochordata ; }, abstract = {Ocean warming associated with global climate change renders marine ecosystems susceptible to biological invasions. Here, we used species distribution models to project habitat suitability for eight invasive ascidians under present-day and future climate scenarios. Distance to shore and maximum sea surface temperature were identified as the most important variables affecting species distributions. Results showed that eight ascidians might respond differently to future climate change. Alarmingly, currently colonized areas are much smaller than predicted, suggesting ascidians may expand their invasive ranges. Areas such as Americas, Europe and Western Pacific have high risks of receiving new invasions. In contrast, African coasts, excluding the Mediterranean side, are not prone to new invasions, likely due to the high sea surface temperature there. Our results highlight the importance of climate change impacts on future invasions and the need for accurate modelling of invasion risks, which can be used as guides to develop management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32662211, year = {2020}, author = {Lertzman-Lepofsky, GF and Kissel, AM and Sinervo, B and Palen, WJ}, title = {Water loss and temperature interact to compound amphibian vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {9}, pages = {4868-4879}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15231}, pmid = {32662211}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Canada Summer Jobs/ ; //National Science and Engineering Research Council/ ; //National Park Service George M. Wright Climate Change Youth Initiative Fellowship Award/ ; //North Coast and Cascades Science Learning Network Award/ ; MORA-2014-SCI-0016//NPS/ ; OLYM-2014-SCI-0045//NPS/ ; EF-1241848//NSF/ ; }, mesh = {Amphibians ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Temperature ; *Water ; }, abstract = {Ectotherm thermal physiology is frequently used to predict species responses to changing climates, but for amphibians, water loss may be of equal or greater importance. Using physical models, we estimated the frequency of exceeding the thermal optimum (Topt) or critical evaporative water loss (EWLcrit) limits, with and without shade- or water-seeking behaviours. Under current climatic conditions (2002-2012), we predict that harmful thermal (>Topt) and hydric (>EWLcrit) conditions limit the activity of amphibians during ~70% of snow-free days in sunny habitats. By the 2080s, we estimate that sunny and dry habitats will exceed one or both of these physiological limits during 95% of snow-free days. Counterintuitively, we find that while wet environments eliminate the risk of critical EWL, they do not reduce the risk of exceeding Topt (+2% higher). Similarly, while shaded dry environments lower the risk of exceeding Topt , critical EWL limits are still exceeded during 63% of snow-free days. Thus, no single environment that we evaluated can simultaneously reduce both physiological risks. When we forecast both temperature and EWL into the 2080s, both physiological thresholds are exceeded in all habitats during 48% of snow-free days, suggesting that there may be limited opportunity for behaviour to ameliorate climate change. We conclude that temperature and water loss act synergistically, compounding the ecophysiological risk posed by climate change, as the combined effects are more severe than those predicted individually. Our results suggest that predictions of physiological risk posed by climate change that do not account for water loss in amphibians may be severely underestimated and that there may be limited scope for facultative behaviours to mediate rapidly changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid32661979, year = {2020}, author = {Asadgol, Z and Badirzadeh, A and Niazi, S and Mokhayeri, Y and Kermani, M and Mohammadi, H and Gholami, M}, title = {How climate change can affect cholera incidence and prevalence? A systematic review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {28}, pages = {34906-34926}, pmid = {32661979}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {1874//Iran University of Medical Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Cholera ; Climate Change ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Humans ; Incidence ; Prevalence ; }, abstract = {Although the number of cholera infection decreased universally, climate change can potentially affect both incidence and prevalence rates of disease in endemic regions. There is considerable consistent evidence, explaining the associations between cholera and climatic variables. However, it is essentially required to compare and interpret these relationships globally. The aim of the present study was to carry out a systematic review in order to identify and appraise the literature concerning the relationship between nonanthropogenic climatic variabilities such as extreme weather- and ocean-related variables and cholera infection rates. The systematic literature review of studies was conducted by using determined search terms via four major electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Scopus) according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach. This search focused on published articles in English-language up to December 31, 2018. A total of 43 full-text studies that met our criteria have been identified and included in our analysis. The reviewed studies demonstrated that cholera incidence is highly attributed to climatic variables, especially rainfall, temperature, sea surface temperature (SST) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The association between cholera incidence and climatic variables has been investigated by a variety of data analysis methodologies, most commonly time series analysis, generalized linear model (GLM), regression analysis, and spatial/GIS. The results of this study assist the policy-makers who provide the efforts for planning and prevention actions in the face of changing global climatic variables.}, }
@article {pmid32660973, year = {2020}, author = {Ledoux, JB and Cruz, F and Gómez-Garrido, J and Antoni, R and Blanc, J and Gómez-Gras, D and Kipson, S and López-Sendino, P and Antunes, A and Linares, C and Gut, M and Alioto, T and Garrabou, J}, title = {The Genome Sequence of the Octocoral Paramuricea clavata - A Key Resource To Study the Impact of Climate Change in the Mediterranean.}, journal = {G3 (Bethesda, Md.)}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {2941-2952}, pmid = {32660973}, issn = {2160-1836}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Genome ; High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The octocoral, Paramuricea clavata, is a habitat-forming anthozoan with a key ecological role in rocky benthic and biodiversity-rich communities in the Mediterranean and Eastern Atlantic. Shallow populations of P. clavata in the North-Western Mediterranean are severely affected by warming-induced mass mortality events (MMEs). These MMEs have differentially impacted individuals and populations of P. clavata (i.e., varied levels of tissue necrosis and mortality rates) over thousands of kilometers of coastal areas. The eco-evolutionary processes, including genetic factors, contributing to these differential responses remain to be characterized. Here, we sequenced a P. clavata individual with short and long read technologies, producing 169.98 Gb of Illumina paired-end and 3.55 Gb of Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) reads. We obtained a de novo genome assembly accounting for 607 Mb in 64,145 scaffolds. The contig and scaffold N50s are 19.15 Kb and 23.92 Kb, respectively. Despite of the low contiguity of the assembly, its gene completeness is relatively high, including 75.8% complete and 9.4% fragmented genes out of the 978 metazoan genes contained in the metazoa_odb9 database. A total of 62,652 protein-coding genes have been annotated. This assembly is one of the few octocoral genomes currently available. This is undoubtedly a valuable resource for characterizing the genetic bases of the differential responses to thermal stress and for the identification of thermo-resistant individuals and populations. Overall, having the genome of P. clavata will facilitate studies of various aspects of its evolutionary ecology and elaboration of effective conservation plans such as active restoration to overcome the threats of global change.}, }
@article {pmid32658689, year = {2020}, author = {Kim, JH and Kim, N and Moon, H and Lee, S and Jeong, SY and Diaz-Pulido, G and Edwards, MS and Kang, JH and Kang, EJ and Oh, HJ and Hwang, JD and Kim, IN}, title = {Global warming offsets the ecophysiological stress of ocean acidification on temperate crustose coralline algae.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {157}, number = {}, pages = {111324}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111324}, pmid = {32658689}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; *Rhodophyta ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Dramatic increases in the release of anthropogenic CO2 and global temperatures have resulted in alterations to seawater carbonate chemistry and metabolisms of marine organisms. There has been recent interest in the effects of these stressors on crustose coralline algae (CCA) because photosynthesis and calcification are influenced by all components of carbonate chemistry. To examine this, a mesocosm experiment was conducted to evaluate photosynthesis, calcification and growth in the temperate CCA Chamberlainium sp. under acidification (doubled CO2), warming (+5 °C), and greenhouse (doubled CO2 and +5 °C) conditions compared to present-day conditions. After 47 days of acclimation to these conditions, productivity was lowest under acidification, although photochemical properties were improved, while respiration was highest under warming. Likewise, growth was lowest under acidification, but this negative response was offset by elevated temperature under greenhouse. Together, these results suggest that warming offsets the negative effects of acidification by creating more suitable conditions for photosynthesis and growth.}, }
@article {pmid32657822, year = {2020}, author = {Shapiro, LT and Jimenez, V and Espinel, Z and Galea, S and Kossin, JP and Shultz, JM}, title = {Preparing Survivors of Traumatic Brain Injury for Catastrophic Hurricanes in the Time of Climate Change.}, journal = {The Journal of head trauma rehabilitation}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {439-442}, doi = {10.1097/HTR.0000000000000571}, pmid = {32657822}, issn = {1550-509X}, mesh = {*Brain Injuries, Traumatic ; Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Humans ; *Survivors ; }, }
@article {pmid32654046, year = {2020}, author = {Rollins, HB and Benard, MF}, title = {Challenges in predicting the outcome of competition based on climate change-induced phenological and body size shifts.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {193}, number = {3}, pages = {749-759}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-020-04705-w}, pmid = {32654046}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; Bufonidae ; *Climate Change ; *Metamorphosis, Biological ; Ranidae ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change is creating warmer, earlier springs, which are causing the phenology of many organisms to shift. Additionally, as temperatures increase, the body size of many ectotherms is decreasing. However, phenological and body size shifts are not occurring at the same rates across species, even in species that live in close proximity or have similar life history. Differing rates of phenological and body-size shifts may affect ecological interactions. We investigated whether shifts in phenology and body size had a predictable effect on interspecific competition. We tested three hypotheses. First, priority effects would indicate early arriving organisms gain a competitive advantage. Second, larger organisms would be competitively superior. Third, similarly sized organisms would compete more strongly. We manipulated aquatic larval conditions to create variation in wood frog (Rana sylvatica) size at and date of metamorphosis. Wood frogs were placed in terrestrial enclosures with unmanipulated juvenile American toads (Anaxyrus americanus) where we tracked amphibian growth over 3 months. Consistent with the size superiority hypothesis, initially smaller wood frogs did not compete as strongly with toads. However, the results of the phenological shift were the opposite of our priority effects prediction: early arrival by frogs increased toad mass. Our results could indicate that toads would experience fewer negative effects of competition with wood frogs that metamorphose earlier and smaller under climate change. Our study highlights the challenges of predicting how climate change will affect interspecific interactions and emphasizes the need to investigate the role of shifts in both phenology and body size.}, }
@article {pmid32650875, year = {2020}, author = {Hastings, M}, title = {Climate Change Impact and the Role of the Emergency Nurse.}, journal = {Journal of emergency nursing}, volume = {46}, number = {4}, pages = {407-409}, doi = {10.1016/j.jen.2020.05.007}, pmid = {32650875}, issn = {1527-2966}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Emergency Nursing ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid32649915, year = {2020}, author = {Bogdziewicz, M and Kelly, D and Tanentzap, AJ and Thomas, PA and Lageard, JGA and Hacket-Pain, A}, title = {Climate Change Strengthens Selection for Mast Seeding in European Beech.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {30}, number = {17}, pages = {3477-3483.e2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2020.06.056}, pmid = {32649915}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Fagus/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Feeding Behavior ; Pollination ; Predatory Behavior/*physiology ; Reproduction ; Seed Dispersal ; Seeds/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Trees/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide [1-4], but the potential for evolutionary responses to these changes is poorly understood. Masting (synchronous, annually variable seed production by plant populations) is selectively beneficial through economies of scale that decrease the cost of reproduction per surviving offspring [5-7]. Masting is particularly widespread in temperate trees [8, 9] impacting food webs, macronutrient cycling, carbon storage, and human disease risk [10-12], so understanding its response to climate change is important. Here, we analyze inter-individual variability in plant reproductive patterns and two economies of scale-predator satiation and pollination efficiency-and document how natural selection acting upon them favors masting. Four decades of observations for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) show that predator satiation and pollination efficiency select for individuals with higher inter-annual variability of reproduction and higher reproductive synchrony between individuals. This result confirms the long-standing theory that masting, a population-level phenomenon, is generated by selection on individuals. Furthermore, recent climate-driven increases in mean seed production have increased selection pressure from seed predators but not from pollination efficiency. Natural selection is thus acting to restore the fitness benefits of masting, which have previously decreased under a warming climate [13]. However, selection will likely take far longer (centuries) than climate warming (decades), so in the short-term, tree reproduction will be reduced because masting has become less effective at satiating seed predators. Over the long-term, evolutionary responses to climate change could potentially increase inter-annual variability of seed production of masting species.}, }
@article {pmid32646983, year = {2020}, author = {Babin, M}, title = {Climate change tweaks Arctic marine ecosystems.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {369}, number = {6500}, pages = {137-138}, doi = {10.1126/science.abd1231}, pmid = {32646983}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton ; }, }
@article {pmid32645233, year = {2020}, author = {Prietzel, J and Falk, W and Reger, B and Uhl, E and Pretzsch, H and Zimmermann, L}, title = {Half a century of Scots pine forest ecosystem monitoring reveals long-term effects of atmospheric deposition and climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {5796-5815}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15265}, pmid = {32645233}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {ST 350//Bavarian State Ministry of Nutrition, Agriculture and Forestry/ ; //Open access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Germany ; Nitrogen/analysis ; *Pinus sylvestris ; Soil ; Trees ; }, abstract = {At two forest sites in Germany (Pfaffenwinkel, Pustert) stocked with mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), we investigated changes of topsoil chemistry during the recent 40 years by soil inventories conducted on replicated control plots of fertilization experiments, allowing a statistical analysis. Additionally, we monitored the nutritional status of both stands from 1964 until 2019 and quantified stand growth during the monitoring period by repeated stand inventories. Moreover, we monitored climate variables (air temperature and precipitation) and calculated annual climatic water balances from 1991 to 2019. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition between 1964 and 2019 was estimated for the period 1969-2019 by combining annual deposition measurements conducted in 1985-1987 and 2004 with long-term deposition records from long-term forest monitoring stations. We investigated interrelations between topsoil chemistry, stand nutrition, stand growth, deposition, and climate trends. At both sites, the onset of the new millennium was a turning point of important biogeochemical processes. Topsoil acidification turned into re-alkalinization, soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation stopped, and likely turned into SOM depletion. In the new millennium, topsoil stocks of S and plant-available phosphorus (P) as well as S and P concentrations in Scots pine foliage decreased substantially; yet, age-referenced stand growth remained at levels far above those expected from yield table data. Tree P and S nutrition as well as climate change (increased temperature and drought stress) have replaced soil acidification as major future challenges for both forests. Understanding of P and S cycling and water fluxes in forest ecosystems, and consideration of these issues in forest management is important for successfully tackling the new challenges. Our study illustrates the importance of long-term forest monitoring to identify slow, but substantial changes of forest biogeochemistry driven by natural and anthropogenic global change.}, }
@article {pmid32645189, year = {2020}, author = {Price, S}, title = {The Temperature's Rising: Preparing for the Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {Texas medicine}, volume = {116}, number = {5}, pages = {18-23}, pmid = {32645189}, issn = {1938-3223}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Health ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Texas ; Water Pollution ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {In Texas, climate change has been blamed for contributing to the severity of several weather and health events, including the 2011 statewide drought, the 2012 outbreak of West Nile virus in Dallas, Hurricane Harvey in 2017, and the steadily increasing prevalence of vector-borne diseases like Zika and chikungunya. Here are some of the most important climate-related health problems Texas physicians can expect according to climate scientists and the physician experts Texas Medicine spoke to.}, }
@article {pmid32643822, year = {2021}, author = {Charles, KM and Stehlik, I}, title = {Assisted species migration and hybridization to conserve cold-adapted plants under climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, pages = {559-566}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.13583}, pmid = {32643822}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Hybridization, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Temperature rise due to climate change is putting many arctic and alpine plants at risk of extinction because their ability to react is outpaced by the speed of climate change. We considered assisted species migration (ASM) and hybridization as methods to conserve cold-adapted species (or the genes thereof) and to minimize the potential perturbation of ecosystems due to climate change. Assisted species migration is the deliberate movement of individuals from their current location to where the species' ecological requirements will be matched under climate projections. Hybridization refers to crossbreeding of closely related species, where for arctic and alpine plants, 1 parent is the threatened cold-adapted and the other its reproductively compatible, warm-adapted sibling. Traditionally, hybridization is viewed as negative and leading to a loss of biodiversity, even though hybridization has increased biodiversity over geological times. Furthermore, the incorporation of warm-adapted genes into a hybrid may be the only means for the persistence of increasingly more maladapted, cold-adapted species. If approached with thorough consideration of fitness-related parameters of the source population and acknowledgement of the important role hybridization has played in shaping current biodiversity, ASM and hybridization could help save partial or whole genomes of key cold-adapted species at risk due to climate change with minimal negative effects on ecosystem functioning.}, }
@article {pmid32643198, year = {2021}, author = {McCann, BT and Davis, JM and Osborne, D and Durham, C and O'Brien, M and Raymond, NA}, title = {Quantifying climate change-relevant humanitarian programming and spending across five countries with high vulnerability to disaster.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {819-843}, pmid = {32643198}, issn = {1467-7717}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Disasters ; *Financial Management ; Humans ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasing the severity and the frequency of natural hazards and associated disasters worldwide, yet there is little data tracking how and whether it is being addressed by humanitarian assistance initiatives. Drawing on publicly available United Nations programme data and vulnerability indexes, this study pilots a novel approach to identifying and quantifying the prevalence of climate change-related humanitarian programmes from 2016-18 in five disaster-affected countries. The funding levels of proposed and undertaken interventions were analysed within specific programmatic sub-areas and across clusters. The study found that 1.8 per cent (99 of 5,558) of projects included in humanitarian proposals reviewed during the research have a climate change-related component. Of 1,361 funded projects, 40 of these were climate change-related and received funding. The methodologies tested here to assess and classify climate change-related humanitarian programmes could be expanded to support further tracking of humanitarian responses to climate change across operational contexts.}, }
@article {pmid32642628, year = {2020}, author = {Anenberg, SC and Bindl, M and Brauer, M and Castillo, JJ and Cavalieri, S and Duncan, BN and Fiore, AM and Fuller, R and Goldberg, DL and Henze, DK and Hess, J and Holloway, T and James, P and Jin, X and Kheirbek, I and Kinney, PL and Liu, Y and Mohegh, A and Patz, J and Jimenez, MP and Roy, A and Tong, D and Walker, K and Watts, N and West, JJ}, title = {Using Satellites to Track Indicators of Global Air Pollution and Climate Change Impacts: Lessons Learned From a NASA-Supported Science-Stakeholder Collaborative.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {4}, number = {7}, pages = {e2020GH000270}, pmid = {32642628}, issn = {2471-1403}, support = {P30 ES010126/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R00 CA201542/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; R01 HL150119/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {The 2018 NASA Health and Air Quality Applied Science Team (HAQAST) "Indicators" Tiger Team collaboration between NASA-supported scientists and civil society stakeholders aimed to develop satellite-derived global air pollution and climate indicators. This Commentary shares our experience and lessons learned. Together, the team developed methods to track wildfires, dust storms, pollen counts, urban green space, nitrogen dioxide concentrations and asthma burdens, tropospheric ozone concentrations, and urban particulate matter mortality. Participatory knowledge production can lead to more actionable information but requires time, flexibility, and continuous engagement. Ground measurements are still needed for ground truthing, and sustained collaboration over time remains a challenge.}, }
@article {pmid32641856, year = {2020}, author = {Louppe, V and Leroy, B and Herrel, A and Veron, G}, title = {Author Correction: The globally invasive small Indian mongoose Urva auropunctata is likely to spread with climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {11595}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-68558-2}, pmid = {32641856}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32641818, year = {2020}, author = {Lehmann, J and Possinger, A}, title = {Removal of atmospheric CO2 by rock weathering holds promise for mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {583}, number = {7815}, pages = {204-205}, pmid = {32641818}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid32640918, year = {2020}, author = {Mena, CS and Artz, M and Llanten, C}, title = {Climate change and global health: a medical anthropology perspective.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {140}, number = {4}, pages = {196-197}, doi = {10.1177/1757913919897943}, pmid = {32640918}, issn = {1757-9147}, mesh = {*Anthropology, Medical ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32640654, year = {2020}, author = {Yu, H and Bian, Z and Mu, S and Yuan, J and Chen, F}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Land Cover Change and Vegetation Dynamics in Xinjiang, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {32640654}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Since the Silk-road Economic belt initiatives were proposed, Xinjiang has provided a vital strategic link between China and Central Asia and even Eurasia. However, owing to the weak and vulnerable ecosystem in this arid region, even a slight climate change would probably disrupt vegetation dynamics and land cover change. Thus, there is an urgent need to determine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land-use/Land-cover (LULC) responses to climate change. Here, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method and linear regression method (LRM) were applied to recognize the variation trends of the NDVI, temperature, and precipitation between the growing season and other seasons. Combining the transfer matrix of LULC, the Pearson correlation analysis was utilized to reveal the response of NDVI to climate change and climate extremes. The results showed that: (1) Extreme temperature showed greater variation than extreme precipitation. Both the ESMD and the LRM exhibited an increased volatility trend for the NDVI, with the significant improvement regions mainly located in the margin of basins. (2) Since climate change had a warming trend, the permanent snow has been reduced by 20,436 km[2]. The NDVI has a higher correlation to precipitation than temperature. Furthermore, the humid trend could provide more suitable conditions for vegetation growth, but the warm trend might prevent vegetation growth. Spatially, the response of the NDVI in North Xinjiang (NXC) was more sensitive to precipitation than that in South Xinjiang (SXC). Seasonally, the NDVI has a greater correlation to precipitation in spring and summer, but the opposite occurs in autumn. (3) The response of the NDVI to extreme precipitation was stronger than the response to extreme temperature. The reduction in diurnal temperature variation was beneficial to vegetation growth. Therefore, continuous concentrated precipitation and higher night-time-temperatures could enhance vegetation growth in Xinjiang. This study could enrich the understanding of the response of land cover change and vegetation dynamics to climate extremes and provide scientific support for eco-environment sustainable management in the arid regions.}, }
@article {pmid32638113, year = {2020}, author = {Berberoglu, S and Cilek, A and Kirkby, M and Irvine, B and Donmez, C}, title = {Spatial and temporal evaluation of soil erosion in Turkey under climate change scenarios using the Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) model.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {8}, pages = {491}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08429-5}, pmid = {32638113}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {110Y338//T&#xfc;rkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Ara&#x15f;tirma Kurumu/ ; FBA-2019-10983//Scientific Projects Administrator Unit of Cukurova University/ ; }, mesh = {Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Risk Assessment ; *Soil ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on soil erosion are mainly caused by the changes in the amount and intensity of rainfall and rising temperature. The combination of rainfall and temperature change is likely to be accompanied by negative or positive variations in agricultural and forest management. Turkey contains vast fertile plains, high mountain chains and semi-arid lands, with a climate that ranges from marine to continental and therefore is susceptible to soil erosion under climate change, particularly on high gradients and in semi-arid areas. This study aims to model the soil erosion risk under climate change scenarios in Turkey using the Pan-European Soil Erosion Assessment (PESERA) model, predicting the likely effects of land use/cover and climate change on sediment transport and soil erosion in the country. For this purpose, PESERA was applied to estimate the monthly and annual soil loss for 12 land use/cover types in Turkey. The model inputs included 128 variables derived from soil, climate, land use/cover and topography data. The total soil loss from the land surface is speculated to be approximately 285.5 million tonnes per year. According to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report of four climate change scenarios, the total soil losses were predicted as 308.9, 323.5, 320.3 and 355.3 million tonnes for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively from 2060 to 2080. The predicted amounts of fertile soil loss from agricultural land in a year were predicted to be 55.5 million tonnes at present, and 62.7, 59.9, 61.7 and 58.1 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 respectively. This confirms that approximately 30% of the total erosion occurs over the agricultural lands. In this respect, degraded forests, scrub and arable lands were subjected to the highest erosion rate (68%) of the total, whereas, fruit trees and berry plantations reflected the lowest erosion rates. Low soil organic carbon, sparse vegetation cover and variable climatic conditions significantly enhanced the erosion of the cultivated lands by primarily removing the potential food for organisms. Finally, process-based models offer a valuable resource for decision-makers when improving environmental management schemes and also decrease uncertainty when considering risks.}, }
@article {pmid32636507, year = {2019}, author = {Gaind, N}, title = {Climate activists turn to lawsuits to force action on global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02121-6}, pmid = {32636507}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32635435, year = {2020}, author = {Ray, C and Ming, X}, title = {Climate Change and Human Health: A Review of Allergies, Autoimmunity and the Microbiome.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {32635435}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Autoimmunity ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Dysbiosis ; *Health ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity ; *Microbiota ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on human health is a topic of critical importance. While only recently beginning to gain attention, it is clear that immediate action is necessary to minimize this impact. In our review, we will outline a subset of these effects in detail. We will examine how climate change has worsened respiratory allergic disease. We will discuss how climate change has altered antigen exposure, possibly disrupting antigen-specific tolerance by the immune system, leading, in turn, to an increase in the prevalence of immunologic diseases. Finally, we will explore how the loss of biodiversity related to climate change may affect the microbiome, potentially leading to dysbiosis, inflammatory, autoimmune and neurologic diseases.}, }
@article {pmid32635256, year = {2020}, author = {Shi, Z and Huang, H and Wu, Y and Chiu, YH and Qin, S}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Crop Disaster Area in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {13}, pages = {}, pmid = {32635256}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {As one of the largest agricultural countries in the world, China has always paid close attention to the sustainable development of agricultural production efficiency. However, with global climate change, extreme weather has become an exogenous factor that cannot be ignored, as it affects agricultural production. Most of the existing studies only consider the domestic natural resources and economic factors, without fully considering the external climate factors. This paper uses the super undesirable dynamic Slacks-Based Measures (SBM) under an exogenous variable model to simulate the external environmental factors by adding extreme weather days. The Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation are used to explore the regional differences in agricultural production in China. The results show that the agricultural production efficiency is higher in the eastern region, and the difference in agricultural production efficiency among the provinces in the middle and western regions is large, showing a trend of polarization. The difference in the Gini coefficient between the middle and western regions is more significant. The main contribution factor of the Dagum Gini coefficient is the inter-regional difference. The regional concentration degree of agriculture in China is decreasing, the regional distribution of agricultural water resources is more balanced, and the national regional difference gradually decreases. Finally, some suggestions are put forward, such as extreme weather control, agricultural water supply, and water-saving measures.}, }
@article {pmid32632156, year = {2020}, author = {Jarić, I and Bellard, C and Courchamp, F and Kalinkat, G and Meinard, Y and Roberts, DL and Correia, RA}, title = {Societal attention toward extinction threats: a comparison between climate change and biological invasions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {11085}, pmid = {32632156}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Endangered Species/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Extinction, Biological ; Introduced Species/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {Public attention and interest in the fate of endangered species is a crucial prerequisite for effective conservation programs. Societal awareness and values will largely determine whether conservation initiatives receive necessary support and lead to adequate policy change. Using text data mining, we assessed general public attention in France, Germany and the United Kingdom toward climate change and biological invasions in relation to endangered amphibian, reptile, bird and mammal species. Our analysis revealed that public attention patterns differed among species groups and countries but was globally higher for climate change than for biological invasions. Both threats received better recognition in threatened than in non-threatened species, as well as in native species than in species from other countries and regions. We conclude that more efficient communication regarding the threat from biological invasions should be developed, and that conservation practitioners should take advantage of the existing attention toward climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32631981, year = {2020}, author = {Cordes, LS and Blumstein, DT and Armitage, KB and CaraDonna, PJ and Childs, DZ and Gerber, BD and Martin, JGA and Oli, MK and Ozgul, A}, title = {Contrasting effects of climate change on seasonal survival of a hibernating mammal.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {30}, pages = {18119-18126}, pmid = {32631981}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Environment ; *Hibernation ; *Mammals ; Mortality ; Population Dynamics ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid32629267, year = {2020}, author = {Scheidl, C and Heiser, M and Kamper, S and Thaler, T and Klebinder, K and Nagl, F and Lechner, V and Markart, G and Rammer, W and Seidl, R}, title = {The influence of climate change and canopy disturbances on landslide susceptibility in headwater catchments.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {742}, number = {}, pages = {140588}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140588}, pmid = {32629267}, issn = {1879-1026}, support = {Y 895/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, mesh = {Austria ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Forests ; *Landslides ; Norway ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Forests have an important regulating function on water runoff and the occurrence of shallow landslides. Their structure and composition directly influence the risk of hydrogeomorphic processes, like floods with high sediment transport or debris flows. Climate change is substantially altering forest ecosystems, and for Central Europe an increase in natural disturbances from wind and insect outbreaks is expected for the future. How such changes impact the regulating function of forest ecosystems remains unclear. By combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering we investigated possible effects of changing climate and disturbance regimes on shallow landslides. We simulated forest landscapes in two headwater catchments in the Eastern Alps of Austria under four different future climate scenarios over 200 years. Our results indicate that climate-mediated changes in forest dynamics can substantially alter the protective function of forest ecosystems. Climate change generally increased landslide risk in our simulations. Only when future warming coincided with drying landslide risk decreased relative to historic conditions. In depth analyses showed that an important driver of future landslide risk was the simulated vegetation composition. Trajectories away from flat rooting Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests currently dominating the system towards an increasing proportion of tree species with heart and taproot systems, increased root cohesion and reduced the soil volume mobilized in landslides. Natural disturbances generally reduced landslide risk in our simulations, with the positive effect of accelerated tree species change and increasing root cohesion outweighing a potential negative effect of disturbances on the water cycle. We conclude that while the efficacy of green infrastructure such as protective forests could be substantially reduced by climate change, such systems also have a strong inherent ability to adapt to changing conditions. Forest management should foster this adaptive capacity to strengthen the protective function of forests also under changing environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32628406, year = {2020}, author = {Van Norman, GA and Jackson, S}, title = {The anesthesiologist and global climate change: an ethical obligation to act.}, journal = {Current opinion in anaesthesiology}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {577-583}, doi = {10.1097/ACO.0000000000000887}, pmid = {32628406}, issn = {1473-6500}, mesh = {Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Anesthesiologists/*ethics ; Anesthesiology/*ethics ; Anesthetics, Inhalation/administration &amp; dosage/*adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Operating Rooms ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Pollution and global warming/climate change contribute to one-quarter of all deaths worldwide. Global healthcare as a whole is the world's fifth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and anesthetic gases, intravenous agents and supplies contribute significantly to the overall problem. It is the ethical obligation of all anesthesiologists to minimize the harmful impact of anesthesia practice on environmental sustainability.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Focused programs encouraging judicious selection of the use of anesthetic gas agents has been shown to reduce CO2 equivalent emissions by 64%, with significant cost savings. Good gas flow management reduces nonscavenged anesthetic gas significantly, and has been shown to decrease the consumption of volatile anesthetic agent by about one-fifth. New devices may allow for recapture, reclamation and recycling of waste anesthetic gases. For propofol, a nonbiodegradable, environmentally toxic agent, simply changing the size of vials on formulary has been shown to reduce wasted agent by 90%.<br><br>SUMMARY: The 5 R's of waste minimization in the operating room (OR) (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle, Rethink and Research) have proven benefit in reducing the environmental impact of the practice of anesthesiology, as well as in reducing costs.}, }
@article {pmid32628332, year = {2020}, author = {Falconnier, GN and Corbeels, M and Boote, KJ and Affholder, F and Adam, M and MacCarthy, DS and Ruane, AC and Nendel, C and Whitbread, AM and Justes, &#xc9; and Ahuja, LR and Akinseye, FM and Alou, IN and Amouzou, KA and Anapalli, SS and Baron, C and Basso, B and Baudron, F and Bertuzzi, P and Challinor, AJ and Chen, Y and Deryng, D and Elsayed, ML and Faye, B and Gaiser, T and Galdos, M and Gayler, S and Gerardeaux, E and Giner, M and Grant, B and Hoogenboom, G and Ibrahim, ES and Kamali, B and Kersebaum, KC and Kim, SH and van der Laan, M and Leroux, L and Lizaso, JI and Maestrini, B and Meier, EA and Mequanint, F and Ndoli, A and Porter, CH and Priesack, E and Ripoche, D and Sida, TS and Singh, U and Smith, WN and Srivastava, A and Sinha, S and Tao, F and Thorburn, PJ and Timlin, D and Traore, B and Twine, T and Webber, H}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {5942-5964}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15261}, pmid = {32628332}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Fertilizers ; Mali ; Nitrogen ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2 ]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.}, }
@article {pmid32627675, year = {2020}, author = {Iniguez-Gallardo, V and Bride, I and Tzanopoulos, J}, title = {Between concepts and experiences: understandings of climate change in southern Ecuador.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {745-756}, doi = {10.1177/0963662520936088}, pmid = {32627675}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Ecuador ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Rural Population ; }, abstract = {For decades, researchers have worried about people's understanding of climate change. Although this understanding varies by cultural context, most studies so far have taken place in industrialised countries. Few studies have explored understandings of climate change in the global South. Through standardised questionnaires and semi-structured interviews conducted in southern Ecuador, this article explores differences between urban and rural dwellers and compares these with farmers' understandings of the causes, consequences and risks. We found urban and rural dwellers hold a similar understanding to that found in other nations, but articulated in ways that reflect their particular realities. Despite reporting firsthand experience of the agricultural effects of climate change, when prompted, farmers do not link climate change to their own experience. It is thus important to go beyond judging knowledge as correct or incorrect, and instead, incorporate local realities in the climate narrative.}, }
@article {pmid32627262, year = {2021}, author = {Bello-Rodríguez, V and Mateo, RG and Pellissier, L and Cubas, J and Cooke, B and González-Mancebo, JM}, title = {Forecast increase in invasive rabbit spread into ecosystems of an oceanic island (Tenerife) under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {e02206}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2206}, pmid = {32627262}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Islands ; Rabbits ; Spain ; }, abstract = {The European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) is a pest and a conservation problem on many islands, where its heavy grazing pressure threatens many endemic plants with extinction. Previous studies in its native and introduced range have highlighted the high spatial variability of rabbit abundance at local and landscape scales, depending on many factors such as the existence of different habitats. Modeling of the species can be useful to better understand spatial patterns and to prioritize actions, especially in those regions in which rabbits have become invasive. Here, we investigate the distribution of the European rabbit in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), where the species was introduced during the 15th century and has subsequently changed vegetation composition. Added to the direct effects of rabbits on vegetation, climate change could also have implications for rabbit populations, especially in the alpine ecosystem. To evaluate that, we estimated rabbit abundance in 216 plots randomly distributed on Tenerife island (61 in the alpine ecosystem), modeled the potential current spatial abundance of the species and considered how it might vary under different climate change scenarios. We associated rabbit abundance to a wide selection of abiotic, biotic, and human variables expected to influence rabbit abundance on the island. We found a positive correlation between rabbit abundance and temperature and a negative correlation in the case of precipitation. Hence, according to the models' projections, climate change is expected to enhance rabbit populations in the future. Current higher densities were related to land disturbance and open areas, and a remarkable increase is expected to occur in the alpine ecosystem. Overall, we consider that this study provides valuable information for land managers in the Canary archipelago as it reveals how global warming could indirectly exacerbate the conservation problems of the endemic flora in oceanic islands.}, }
@article {pmid32623765, year = {2020}, author = {Durant, JM and Ono, K and Stenseth, NC and Langangen, &#xd8;}, title = {Nonlinearity in interspecific interactions in response to climate change: Cod and haddock as an example.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {5554-5563}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15264}, pmid = {32623765}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {280467//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d/ ; 280468//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Gadiformes ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Climate change has profound ecological effects, yet our understanding of how trophic interactions among species are affected by climate change is still patchy. The sympatric Atlantic haddock and cod are co-occurring across the North Atlantic. They compete for food at younger stages and thereafter the former is preyed by the latter. Climate change might affect the interaction and coexistence of these two species. Particularly, the increase in sea temperature (ST) has been shown to affect distribution, population growth and trophic interactions in marine systems. We used 33-year long time series of haddock and cod abundances estimates from two data sources (acoustic and trawl survey) to analyse the dynamic effect of climate on the coexistence of these two sympatric species in the Arcto-Boreal Barents Sea. Using a Bayesian state-space threshold model, we demonstrated that long-term climate variation, as expressed by changes of ST, affected species demography through different influences on density-independent processes. The interaction between cod and haddock has shifted in the last two decades due to an increase in ST, altering the equilibrium abundances and the dynamics of the system. During warm years (ST over ca. 4°C), the increase in the cod abundance negatively affected haddock abundance while it did not during cold years. This change in interactions therefore changed the equilibrium population size with a higher population size during warm years. Our analyses show that long-term climate change in the Arcto-Boreal system can generate differences in the equilibrium conditions of species assemblages.}, }
@article {pmid32623280, year = {2020}, author = {Clayton, S}, title = {Climate anxiety: Psychological responses to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {74}, number = {}, pages = {102263}, doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102263}, pmid = {32623280}, issn = {1873-7897}, mesh = {Age Factors ; *Anxiety/psychology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change will affect psychological wellbeing. Substantial research has documented harmful impacts on physical health, mental health, and social relations from exposure to extreme weather events that are associated with climate change. Recently, attention has turned to the possible effects of climate change on mental health through emotional responses such as increased anxiety. This paper discusses the nature of climate anxiety and some evidence for its existence, and speculates about ways to address it. Although climate anxiety appears to be a real phenomenon that deserves clinical attention, it is important to distinguish between adaptive and maladaptive levels of anxiety. A focus on individual mental health should not distract attention from the societal response that is necessary to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32623168, year = {2020}, author = {Gebrechorkos, SH and Bernhofer, C and Hülsmann, S}, title = {Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {742}, number = {}, pages = {140504}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140504}, pmid = {32623168}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Local-scale climate change adaptation is receiving more attention to reduce the adverse effects of climate change. The process of developing adaptation measures at local-scale (e.g., river basins) requires high-quality climate information with higher resolution. Climate projections are available at a coarser spatial resolution from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and require spatial downscaling and bias correction to drive hydrological models. We used the hybrid multiple linear regression and stochastic weather generator model (Statistical Down-Scaling Model, SDSM) to develop a location-based climate projection, equivalent to future station data, from GCMs. Meteorological data from 24 ground stations and the most accurate satellite and reanalysis products identified for the region, such as Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data were used. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impacts of the projected climate on hydrology. Both SDSM and SWAT were calibrated and validated using the observed climate and streamflow data, respectively. Climate projection based on SDSM, in one of the large and agricultural intensive basins in Ethiopia (i.e., Awash), show high variability in precipitation but an increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature, which agrees with global warming. On average, the projection shows an increase in annual precipitation (>10%), Tmax (>0.4 °C), Tmin (>0.2 °C) and streamflow (>34%) in the 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070), and 2080s (2071-2100) under RCP2.6-RCP8.5. Although no significant trend in precipitation is found, streamflow during March-May and June-September is projected to increase throughout the 21 century by an average of more than 1.1% and 24%, respectively. However, streamflow is projected to decrease during January-February and October-November by more than 6%. Overall, considering the projected warming and changes in seasonal flow, local-scale adaptation measures to limit the impact on agriculture, water and energy sectors are required.}, }
@article {pmid32623164, year = {2020}, author = {Jermacz, &#x141; and Kletkiewicz, H and Krzyżyńska, K and Klimiuk, M and Kobak, J}, title = {Does global warming intensify cost of antipredator reaction? A case study of freshwater amphipods.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {742}, number = {}, pages = {140474}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140474}, pmid = {32623164}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Amphipoda ; Animals ; Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; Global Warming ; Predatory Behavior ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming is a worldwide phenomenon affecting the functioning of diverse ecosystems, including fresh waters. Temperature increase affects physiology and behaviour of ectotherms due to growing energetic demands necessary to sustain increased metabolic rate. Anti-predator responses may resemble temperature-induced changes in organisms, suggesting synergism between these factors. To check how temperature shapes physiological and behavioural responses of ectotherms to predation risk, we exposed amphipods: Dikerogammarus villosus and Gammarus jazdzewskii to fish kairomones at 10, 17 or 24 °C. Animals were placed in tanks where temperature was gradually adjusted to the desired test temperature and acclimated under such conditions for 3 subsequent days. Then they were exposed to the predator cue (the Eurasian perch kairomone) for 35 min to test their acute responses. We measured metabolic rate (as respiration), antioxidant defence (CAT: catalase activity, TAS: total antioxidant status), oxidative molecules (TOS: total oxidative status), oxidative damage (TBARS: thiobarbituric acid reactive substances) and behaviour (locomotor activity). Amphipods increased respiration with raising temperature and when exposed to predation risk (all temperatures). Only G. jazdzewskii exhibited increased TOS when exposed to 24 °C or to predation risk at all temperatures. Antioxidant defence increased with raising temperature (CAT, TAS) and decreased under predation risk (CAT). Cellular damage increased in G. jazdzewskii under predation risk at 10 and 24 °C, but raised temperature itself did not generate any damage. Amphipods reduced locomotor activity at 24 °C. Thus, at elevated temperatures, amphipods minimized their cellular damage at the cost of increased antioxidant defence and lower locomotor activity (potentially disadvantageous under higher energetic demands). Under predation risk, the performance of antioxidant systems was reduced, probably due to energy allocation into anti-predatory mechanisms, leading to increased cellular damage at suboptimum temperatures. Thus, negative consequences of elevated temperature for organisms may be amplified by changes in behaviour (compromising food acquisition) and non-consumptive predator effects.}, }
@article {pmid32623163, year = {2020}, author = {Govere, S and Nyamangara, J and Nyakatawa, EZ}, title = {Climate change signals in the historical water footprint of wheat production in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {742}, number = {}, pages = {140473}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140473}, pmid = {32623163}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change has been posited as the biggest threat to crop productivity in agro-systems, yet its impact on the water footprints of crop production for many regions remains uncertain. This study sought to determine evidence of historical climate change (1980-2010) and its resultant impact on the blue water footprint of winter wheat production in Zimbabwe. The analysis involved assessing the impact of climate change on wheat yield and crop water requirements, the key factors determining the blue water footprint. The CROPWAT model and the global water footprint assessment (WFA) standard were used to calculate the blue water footprint. Multiple linear regression was used to correlate climate variables to wheat yield, crop water requirements and the blue water footprint. Results show a significant (p < 0.05) warming of temperatures in the country's main wheat growing areas. Crop water requirements for winter wheat decreased by 4.88%, due to positive and negative trends in humidity and wind speed respectively. Between 1980 and 2000 the coupled effects of solar radiation at anthesis and maximum temperatures in July, August and September reduced wheat yields by 6.65%. The cumulative effects of climate change on crop water requirements and wheat yields increased the blue water footprint by 4%. The results of the study suggest that climate change and agricultural management factors might be equally responsible for the increase in the blue water footprint.}, }
@article {pmid32620772, year = {2020}, author = {Hassanzadeh, P and Lee, CY and Nabizadeh, E and Camargo, SJ and Ma, D and Yeung, LY}, title = {Effects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3319}, pmid = {32620772}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {The movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in TC translation speed and the likelihood of stalled TCs such as Harvey have received significant attention, but findings have remained inconclusive. Here, we examine how the June-September steering wind and translation speed of landfalling Texas TCs change in the future under anthropogenic climate change. Using several large-ensemble/multi-model datasets, we find pronounced regional variations in the meridional steering wind response over North America, but-consistently across models-stronger June-September-averaged northward steering winds over Texas. A cluster analysis of daily wind patterns shows more frequent circulation regimes that steer landfalling TCs northward in the future. Downscaling experiments show a 10-percentage-point shift from the slow-moving to the fast-moving end of the translation-speed distribution in the future. Together, these analyses indicate increases in the likelihood of faster-moving landfalling Texas TCs in the late 21[st] century.}, }
@article {pmid32620579, year = {2020}, author = {Buse, CG and Patrick, R}, title = {Climate change glossary for public health practice: from vulnerability to climate justice.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and community health}, volume = {74}, number = {10}, pages = {867-871}, doi = {10.1136/jech-2020-213889}, pmid = {32620579}, issn = {1470-2738}, support = {MFE158126//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; Humans ; Public Health ; *Public Health Practice ; *Social Justice ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an emerging and growing field of practice for the international public health community. As practitioners, researchers and policy-makers grapple with the local health impacts of climate change, there is an increasing need to clarify key terminology to support public health actors engage and respond in ways that promote intersectoral collaboration. This contribution introduces the public health discourse on climate change, with a particular focus on its implications for health equity. After defining key terms and existing adaptation practices, climate justice and assets-oriented inquiry into the intersectional determinants of health are discussed as future opportunities for addressing health equity in climate and health-related research and practice.}, }
@article {pmid32619913, year = {2020}, author = {Gu, S and Zhang, L and Sun, S and Wang, X and Lu, B and Han, H and Yang, J and Wang, A}, title = {Projections of temperature-related cause-specific mortality under climate change scenarios in a coastal city of China.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {143}, number = {}, pages = {105889}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2020.105889}, pmid = {32619913}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Cause of Death ; China/epidemiology ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mortality ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have been conducted to project temperature-related mortality under climate change scenarios. However, most of the previous evidence has been limited to the total or non-accidental mortality, resulting in insufficient knowledge on the influence of climate change on different types of disease.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We aimed to project future temperature impact on mortality from 16 causes under multiple climate change models in a coastal city of China.<br><br>METHODS: We first estimated the baseline exposure-response relationships between daily average temperature and cause-specific mortality during 2009-2018. Then, we acquired downscaled future temperature projections from 28 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Finally, we combined these exposure-response associations with projected temperature to estimate the change in the temperature-related death burden in different future decades in comparison to the 2010&#xa0;s, assuming no demographic changes and population acclimatization.<br><br>RESULTS: We found a consistently decreasing trend in cold-related mortality but a steep rise in heat-related mortality among 16 causes under climate change scenarios. Compared with the 2010&#xa0;s, the net change in the fraction of total mortality attributable to temperature are projected to -0.54% (95% eCI: -1.69% to 0.71%) and -0.38% (95% eCI: -2.73% to 2.12%) at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. However, the magnitude of future cold and heat effects varied by different causes of death. A net reduction of future temperature-related death burden was observed among 10 out of 15 causes, with estimates ranging from -5.02% (95% eCI: -17.42% to 2.50%) in mental disorders to -1.01% (95% eCI: -5.56% to 3.28%) in chronic lower respiratory disease. Conversely, the rest diseases are projected to experience a potential net increase of temperature-related death burden, with estimates ranging from 0.44% (95% eCI: -4.40% to 6.02%) in ischemic heart disease and 4.80% (95% eCI: -0.04% to 9.84%) in external causes.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that the mortality burden of climate change varied greatly by the mortality categories. Further investigations are warranted to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on different types of disease across various regions.}, }
@article {pmid32619845, year = {2020}, author = {Manzanedo, RD and Manning, P}, title = {COVID-19: Lessons for the climate change emergency.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {742}, number = {}, pages = {140563}, pmid = {32619845}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; *Coronavirus Infections ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; *Pneumonia, Viral ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, abstract = {The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak pandemic is now a global crisis. It has caused 9+ million confirmed cases and 400,000+ deaths at the time of writing and triggered unprecedented preventative measures that have confined a substantial portion of the global population and established 'social distancing' as a new global behavioral norm. The COVID-19 crisis has affected all aspects of everyday life and work, and heavily impacted the global economy. This crisis also offers unprecedented insights into how the global climate crisis may be managed, as there are many parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and what we expect from the imminent global climate emergency. Reflecting upon the challenges of today's crisis may help us better prepare for the future. Here we compile a list, by no means comprehensive, of the similarities and differences between the two crises, and the lessons we can learn from them: (i) High momentum trends, (ii) Irreversible changes, (iii) Social and spatial inequality, (iv) Weakening of international solidarity, and (v) Less costly to prevent than to cure.}, }
@article {pmid32618027, year = {2021}, author = {Gildner, TE and Levy, SB}, title = {Intersecting vulnerabilities in human biology: Synergistic interactions between climate change and increasing obesity rates.}, journal = {American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council}, volume = {33}, number = {2}, pages = {e23460}, doi = {10.1002/ajhb.23460}, pmid = {32618027}, issn = {1520-6300}, mesh = {*Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*epidemiology/etiology ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Obesity/*epidemiology/etiology ; *Social Class ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Increasing obesity rates and accelerating climate change represent two global health challenges shaped by lifestyle change and human environmental modifications. Yet, few studies have considered how these issues may interact to exacerbate disease risk.<br><br>METHODS: In this theory article, we explore evidence that obesity-related disease and climatic changes share socio-ecological drivers and may interact to increase human morbidity and mortality risks. Additionally, we consider how obesity-climate change interactions may disproportionately affect vulnerable populations and how anthropological research can be applied to address this concern.<br><br>RESULTS: Interactions between heat stress and cardiometabolic disease represent an important pathway through which climate change and obesity-related morbidities may jointly impair health. For example, individuals with higher body fatness and obesity-related metabolic conditions (eg, type 2 diabetes) exhibit a reduced ability to dissipate heat. The risk of poor health resulting from these interactions is expected to be heterogeneous, with low- and middle-income countries, individuals of lower socioeconomic status, and minority populations facing a greater disease burden due to relative lack of resource access (eg, air conditioning). Moreover, older adults are at higher risk due to aging-associated changes in body composition and loss of thermoregulation capabilities.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Few policy makers appear to be considering how interventions can be designed to simultaneously address the medical burden posed by increasing obesity rates and climate change. Anthropological research is well situated to address this need in a nuanced and culturally-sensitive way; producing research that can be used to support community resilience, promote holistic well-being, and improve health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid32616362, year = {2020}, author = {Paliwal, R and Abberton, M and Faloye, B and Olaniyi, O}, title = {Developing the role of legumes in West Africa under climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {56}, number = {}, pages = {242-258}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2020.05.002}, pmid = {32616362}, issn = {1879-0356}, mesh = {Africa, Western ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics ; Droughts ; *Fabaceae/genetics ; }, abstract = {West Africa is faced with significant challenges from climate change, including parts of the region becoming hotter with more variable rainfall. The Sahelian region in particular is already subject to severe droughts. To address this better adapted crop varieties (such as for cowpea) are clearly a central element, a complementary one is a greater use of resilient alternative crops especially underutilized legumes particularly Bambara groundnut, African yam bean, winged bean and Kersting's groundnut. Genetic diversity of these crops conserved in genebanks and farmer's field provides an opportunity to exploit climate resilient traits using cutting-edge genomic tools and to use genomics-assisted breeding to accelerate genetic gains in combination of rapid cycle breeding strategy to develop climate-resilient cultivars for sub-Saharan Africa.}, }
@article {pmid32615065, year = {2020}, author = {Meza-Palacios, R and Aguilar-Lasserre, AA and Morales-Mendoza, LF and Rico-Contreras, JO and Sánchez-Medel, LH and Fernández-Lambert, G}, title = {Decision support system for NPK fertilization: a solution method for minimizing the impact on human health, climate change, ecosystem quality and resources.}, journal = {Journal of environmental science and health. Part A, Toxic/hazardous substances &amp; environmental engineering}, volume = {55}, number = {11}, pages = {1267-1282}, doi = {10.1080/10934529.2020.1787012}, pmid = {32615065}, issn = {1532-4117}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Climate Change ; *Decision Support Techniques ; Ecosystem ; Fertilizers/*adverse effects/analysis ; Humans ; Nitrogen/adverse effects/analysis ; Phosphorus/adverse effects/analysis ; Potassium/adverse effects/analysis ; Risk Assessment ; Saccharum/*growth &amp; development ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Sugarcane cultivation requires correct fertilizer rates. However, when nutrients are not available, or there is over-fertilization, the yields are significantly reduced and the environmental burden increase. In this study, it is proposed a decision support system (DSS) for the correct NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium) fertilization. The DSS consists of two fuzzy models; the edaphic condition model (EDC-M) and the NPK fertilization model (NPK-M). The DSS using parameters from soil analysis and is based on the experience of two groups of experts to avoid the bias to the reality of a single group of professionals. The results of the DSS are compared with the results of soil analysis and those of the group of experts. One hundred and sixty tests were developed in the NPK-M. The N rate shows R [2]=0.981 for the DSS and R [2]=0.963 for soil analyzes. The P rate shows R [2]=0.9702 for the DSS and R [2]=0.9183 for the soil analyzes. The K rate shows R [2]=0.9691 for the DSS and R [2]=0.9663 for the soil analyzes. Environmental results indicate that the estimated rates with the DSS do reduce the environmental impact on the tests performed.}, }
@article {pmid32612881, year = {2020}, author = {Marcinkowski, P and Mirosław-Świątek, D}, title = {Modelling of climate change impact on flow conditions in the lowland anastomosing river.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {e9275}, pmid = {32612881}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The progressive degradation of freshwater ecosystems worldwide requires action to be taken for their conservation. Nowadays, protection strategies need to step beyond the traditional approach of managing protected areas as they have to deal with the protection or recovery of natural flow regimes disrupted by the effects of future climate conditions. Climate change affects the hydrosphere at catchment scale altering hydrological processes which in turn impact hydrodynamics at the river reach scale. Therefore, conservation strategies should consider mathematical models, which allow for an improved understanding of ecosystem functions and their interactions across different spatial and temporal scales. This study focuses on an anastomosing river system in north-eastern Poland, where in recent decades a significant loss of the anabranches has been observed. The objective was to assess the impact of projected climate change on average flow conditions in the anastomosing section of the Narew River. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT software) for the Narew catchment was coupled with the HEC-RAS one-dimensional unsteady flow model. The study looked into projected changes for two future time horizons 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 using an ensemble of nine EURO-CORDEX model scenarios. Results show that low flow conditions in the anastomosing section of the Narew National Park will remain relatively stable in 2021-2050 compared to current conditions and will slightly increase in 2071-2100. Duration of low flows, although projected to decrease on an annual basis, will increase for August-October, when the loss on anastomoses was found to be the most intense. Hydraulic modeling indicated extremely low flow velocities in the anastomosing arm (<0.1 m/s) nowadays and under future projections which is preferable for in-stream vegetation development and their gradual sedimentation and closure.}, }
@article {pmid32612364, year = {2020}, author = {Tuyet Hanh, TT and Huong, LTT and Huong, NTL and Linh, TNQ and Quyen, NH and Nhung, NTT and Ebi, K and Cuong, ND and Van Nhu, H and Kien, TM and Hales, S and Cuong, DM and Tho, NTT and Toan, LQ and Bich, NN and Van Minh, H}, title = {Vietnam Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, 2018.}, journal = {Environmental health insights}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {1178630220924658}, pmid = {32612364}, issn = {1178-6302}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Global Climate Risk Index 2020 ranked Vietnam as the sixth country in the world most affected by climate variability and extreme weather events over the period 1999-2018. Sea level rise and extreme weather events are projected to be more severe in coming decades, which, without additional action, will increase the number of people at risk of climate-sensitive diseases, challenging the health system. This article summaries the results of a health vulnerability and adaptation (V&amp;A) assessment conducted in Vietnam as evidences for development of the National Climate Change Health Adaptation Plan to 2030.<br><br>METHODS: The assessment followed the first 4 steps outlined in the World Health Organization's Guidelines in conducting "Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments." A framework and list of indicators were developed for semi-quantitative assessment for the period 2013 to 2017. Three sets of indicators were selected to assess the level of (1) exposure to climate change and extreme weather events, (2) health sensitivity, and (3) adaptation capacity. The indicators were rated and analyzed using a scoring system from 1 to 5.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that climate-sensitive diseases were common, including dengue fever, diarrheal, influenza, etc, with large burdens of disease that are projected to increase. From 2013 to 2017, the level of "exposure" to climate change-related hazards of the health sector was "high" to "very high," with an average score from 3.5 to 4.4 (out of 5.0). For "health sensitivity," the scores decreased from 3.8 in 2013 to 3.5 in 2017, making the overall rating as "high." For "adaptive capacity," the scores were from 4.0 to 4.1, which meant adaptive capacity was "very low." The overall V&amp;A rating in 2013 was "very high risk" (score 4.1) and "high risk" with scores of 3.8 in 2014 and 3.7 in 2015 to 2017.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Adaptation actions of the health sector are urgently needed to reduce the vulnerability to climate change in coming decades. Eight adaptation solutions, among recommendations of V&amp;A assessment, were adopted in the National Health Climate Change Adaptation Plan.}, }
@article {pmid32612126, year = {2020}, author = {Terzi, L and Wotawa, G and Schoeppner, M and Kalinowski, M and Saey, PRJ and Steinmann, P and Luan, L and Staten, PW}, title = {Radioisotopes demonstrate changes in global atmospheric circulation possibly caused by global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {10695}, pmid = {32612126}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {In this paper, we present a new method to study global atmospheric processes and their changes during the last decade. A cosmogenic radionuclide measured at ground-level, beryllium-7, is utilized as a proxy to study atmospheric dynamics. Beryllium-7 has two advantages: First, this radionuclide, primarily created in the lower stratosphere, attaches to aerosols that are transported downwards to the troposphere and travel around the globe with the general atmospheric circulation. By monitoring these particles, we can provide a global, simple, and sustainable way to track processes such as multi-annual variation of the troposphere, tropopause heightening, position and speed of atmospheric interface zones, as well as the poleward movement and stalling patterns of jet streams. Second, beryllium-7 is a product of cosmic rays which are themselves directly linked to solar activity and the earth magnetic field. This study shows whether beryllium-7 observed concentration changes are correlated with such natural processes or independent of them. Our work confirms that major changes in the atmospheric circulation are currently ongoing, even though timeseries are too short to make climatological assessments. We provide solid evidence of significant and progressive changes of the global atmospheric circulation as well as modifications of tropopause heights over the past decade. As the last decade happened to be the warmest on record, this analysis also indicates that the observed changes are, at least to some extent, attributable to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid32611544, year = {2021}, author = {Nybo, L and Flouris, AD and Racinais, S and Mohr, M}, title = {Football facing a future with global warming: perspectives for players health and performance.}, journal = {British journal of sports medicine}, volume = {55}, number = {6}, pages = {297-298}, doi = {10.1136/bjsports-2020-102193}, pmid = {32611544}, issn = {1473-0480}, mesh = {Athletic Performance/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Heat Stress Disorders/*prevention &amp; control ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Soccer/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid32610798, year = {2021}, author = {Keshvardoost, S and Dehnavieh, R and Bahaadinibeigy, K}, title = {Climate Change and Telemedicine: A Prospective View.}, journal = {International journal of health policy and management}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {45-46}, pmid = {32610798}, issn = {2322-5939}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Prospective Studies ; *Telemedicine ; }, }
@article {pmid32609857, year = {2020}, author = {Kameg, BN}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health: Implications for Nurses.}, journal = {Journal of psychosocial nursing and mental health services}, volume = {58}, number = {9}, pages = {25-30}, doi = {10.3928/02793695-20200624-05}, pmid = {32609857}, issn = {0279-3695}, mesh = {Anxiety/diagnosis/psychology ; *Climate Change ; Depressive Disorder/diagnosis/psychology ; Evidence-Based Nursing ; Humans ; Mental Health/*trends ; *Nurse's Role ; *Psychiatric Nursing ; Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/diagnosis/psychology ; }, abstract = {Climate change has received public health attention over the past 3 decades. It is well established that climate change is associated with myriad health issues, but less has been mentioned in public health discourse about the impacts of climate change on population mental health. The purpose of the current article is to provide an overview of the impacts of climate change on mental health, and to discuss opportunities for mental health nurses to reduce health problems related to climate change. Acute events and chronic consequences of climate change can impact mental health outcomes and contribute to depressive disorders, anxiety, and trauma-related disorders. The nursing profession must be prepared to address climate change to promote best health outcomes for individuals around the globe. It is critical that mental health nurses act as leaders in understanding and addressing climate change to improve the mental health of populations. [Journal of Psychosocial Nursing and Mental Health Services, 58(9), 25-30.].}, }
@article {pmid32603347, year = {2020}, author = {da Silva-Pinto, T and Silveira, MM and de Souza, JF and Moreira, ALP and Vieira, EA and Longo, GO and Luchiari, AC}, title = {Damselfish face climate change: Impact of temperature and habitat structure on agonistic behavior.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {e0235389}, pmid = {32603347}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agonistic Behavior/*physiology ; Animals ; Brazil ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Global Warming ; Oceans and Seas ; *Temperature ; Territoriality ; }, abstract = {Oceans absorb a huge part of the atmospheric heat, leading to the rise in water temperature. Reefs are among the most affected ecosystems, where the complex behavioral repertoire of fishes is usually an indicator of environmental impacts. Here, we examined whether temperature (28 and 34°C) and habitat complexity (high and low) interact to affect the agonistic behavior (mirror test) of the dusky damselfish (Stegastes fuscus), a key species in Brazilian reefs because of its gardening capacity and territorial behavior. Higher temperatures altered basal behavior in both high and low-complexity conditions. Fish kept at 28°C under the high-complexity condition were more aggressive than those at a higher temperature (34°C) and in a low-complexity condition, which also exhibited lower dispersion. Our data show that changes in behavior of coral reef fish is associated to fluctuations in environmental conditions. Thus, it is important to implement management or conservation strategies that could mitigate global change effects.}, }
@article {pmid32599547, year = {2020}, author = {Kingsolver, JG and Buckley, LB}, title = {Ontogenetic variation in thermal sensitivity shapes insect ecological responses to climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {17-24}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2020.05.005}, pmid = {32599547}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fertility/physiology ; Insecta/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Life Cycle Stages ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Insects have distinct life stages that can differ in their responses to environmental factors. We discuss empirical evidence and theoretical models for ontogenetic variation in thermal sensitivity and performance curves (TPCs). Data on lower thermal limits for development (T0) demonstrate variation between stages within a species that is of comparable magnitude to variation among species; we illustrate the consequences of such ontogenetic variation for developmental responses to changing temperature. Ontogenetic variation in optimal temperatures and upper thermal limits has been reported in some systems, but current data are too limited to identify general patterns. The shapes of TPCs for different fitness components such as juvenile survival, adult fecundity, and generation time differ in characteristic ways, with important consequences for understanding fitness in varying thermal environments. We highlight a theoretical framework for incorporating ontogenetic variation into process-based models of population responses to seasonal variation and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32599389, year = {2020}, author = {Heath, LC and Tiwari, P and Sadhukhan, B and Tiwari, S and Chapagain, P and Xu, T and Li, G and Ailikun,  and Joshi, B and Yan, J}, title = {Building climate change resilience by using a versatile toolkit for local governments and communities in rural Himalaya.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {188}, number = {}, pages = {109636}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109636}, pmid = {32599389}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Local Government ; Rural Population ; }, abstract = {With the impacts of climate disruption becoming more evident there has been an increase in the uptake of climate change adaptation "toolkits" to assist local governments build community resilience and adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is increasing attention and call for practitioners to adopt proactive and participatory approaches to help in the adaptive response planning process. One such toolkit is the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCRN) Process (IAP). This is a simple but rigorous toolkit developed to help local governments in Asian cities build resilience to the impacts of climate change. This paper outlines the application of the toolkit to determine its versatility in the rural context and was trialled in the Himalayan rural enclave of Ramgad in the Indian state of Uttarakhand. Given the differences between urban and rural environments, the outcomes highlighted the need for further investigation and analysis into the process to ensure that the methodology truly reflects the nature of rural systems and their level of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Overall, the toolkit proved to be a simple but versatile toolkit to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities in rural Himalaya. Over 40 resilience intervention strategies were developed for the Ramgad enclave and these were prioritized according to their technical, political, social and economic feasibility.}, }
@article {pmid32598391, year = {2020}, author = {Chemura, A and Schauberger, B and Gornott, C}, title = {Impacts of climate change on agro-climatic suitability of major food crops in Ghana.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {e0229881}, pmid = {32598391}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crop Production ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Feasibility Studies ; *Food ; Ghana ; Models, Statistical ; }, abstract = {Climate change is projected to impact food production stability in many tropical countries through impacts on crop potential. However, without quantitative assessments of where, by how much and to what extent crop production is possible now and under future climatic conditions, efforts to design and implement adaptation strategies under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Action Plans (NAP) are unsystematic. In this study, we used extreme gradient boosting, a machine learning approach to model the current climatic suitability for maize, sorghum, cassava and groundnut in Ghana using yield data and agronomically important variables. We then used multi-model future climate projections for the 2050s and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) to predict changes in the suitability range of these crops. We achieved a good model fit in determining suitability classes for all crops (AUC = 0.81-0.87). Precipitation-based factors are suggested as most important in determining crop suitability, though the importance is crop-specific. Under projected climatic conditions, optimal suitability areas will decrease for all crops except for groundnuts under RCP8.5 (no change: 0%), with greatest losses for maize (12% under RCP2.6 and 14% under RCP8.5). Under current climatic conditions, 18% of Ghana has optimal suitability for two crops, 2% for three crops with no area having optimal suitability for all the four crops. Under projected climatic conditions, areas with optimal suitability for two and three crops will decrease by 12% as areas having moderate and marginal conditions for multiple crops increase. We also found that although the distribution of multiple crop suitability is spatially distinct, cassava and groundnut will be more simultaneously suitable for the south while groundnut and sorghum will be more suitable for the northern parts of Ghana under projected climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32597979, year = {2020}, author = {Pollastrini, M and Salvatori, E and Fusaro, L and Manes, F and Marzuoli, R and Gerosa, G and Brüggemann, W and Strasser, RJ and Bussotti, F}, title = {Selection of tree species for forests under climate change: is PSI functioning a better predictor for net photosynthesis and growth than PSII?.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {40}, number = {11}, pages = {1561-1571}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpaa084}, pmid = {32597979}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Forests ; Italy ; Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves ; *Quercus ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {A chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) assessment was carried out on oak seedlings (Quercus ilex L., Quercus pubescens Willd., Quercus frainetto Ten.) of Italian and Greek provenance, during the years 2017 and 2018, in a common garden in central Italy planted in 2017. This trial aimed to test the relative performances of the oak species in the perspective of assisted migration as part of the actions for the adaptation of forests to climate change. The assessment of the photosynthetic performance of the tree species included the analysis of the prompt chlorophyll fluorescence (PF) transient and the modulated reflection (MR) at 820 nm, leaf chlorophyll content, leaf gas exchange (net photosynthesis, stomatal conductance), plant growth (i.e., height) and mortality rate after 2 years from the beginning of the experiment. The assessment of the performance of the three oak species was carried out 'in vivo'. Plants were generated from seeds and exposed to several environmental factors, including changing seasonal temperature, water availability, and soil biological and physical functionality. The results of PF indicate a stable functionality of the photosynthetic system PSII (expressed as FV/FM) across species and provenances and a decline in photochemistry functionality at the I-P phase (ΔVIP) in Q. frainetto, thus indicating a decline of the content of PSI in this species. This result was confirmed by the findings of MR analysis, with the speed of reduction and subsequent oxidation of PSI (VRED and VOX) strongly correlated to the amplitude of ΔVIP. The photosynthetic rates (net photosynthesis, PN) and growth were correlated with the parameters associated with PSI content and function, rather than those related to PSII. The low performance of Q. frainetto in the common garden seems to be related to early foliar senescence with the depletion of nitrogen, due to suboptimal climatic and edaphic conditions. Chlorophyll fluorescence allowed discrimination of populations of oak species and individuation of the less (or/and best) suitable species for future forest ecology and management purposes.}, }
@article {pmid32596440, year = {2020}, author = {Elsen, PR and Monahan, WB and Dougherty, ER and Merenlender, AM}, title = {Keeping pace with climate change in global terrestrial protected areas.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {6}, number = {25}, pages = {eaay0814}, pmid = {32596440}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Protected areas (PAs) are essential to biodiversity conservation, but their static boundaries may undermine their potential for protecting species under climate change. We assessed how the climatic conditions within global terrestrial PAs may change over time. By 2070, protection is expected to decline in cold and warm climates and increase in cool and hot climates over a wide range of precipitation. Most countries are expected to fail to protect >90% of their available climate at current levels. The evenness of climatic representation under protection-not the amount of area protected-positively influenced the retention of climatic conditions under protection. On average, protection retention would increase by ~118% if countries doubled their climatic representativeness under protection or by ~102% if countries collectively reduced emissions in accordance with global targets. Therefore, alongside adoption of mitigation policies, adaptation policies that improve the complementarity of climatic conditions within PAs will help countries safeguard biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid32595660, year = {2020}, author = {Dorado-Liñán, I and Valbuena-Carabaña, M and Cañellas, I and Gil, L and Gea-Izquierdo, G}, title = {Climate Change Synchronizes Growth and iWUE Across Species in a Temperate-Submediterranean Mixed Oak Forest.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {706}, pmid = {32595660}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Tree species have good tolerance to a range of environmental conditions, though their ability to respond and persist to environmental changes is dramatically reduced at the rear-edge distribution limits. At those edges, gene flow conferring adaptation is impaired due to lack of populations at lower latitudes. Thus, trees mainly rely on phenotypic changes to buffer against long-term environmental changes. Interspecific hybridization may offer an alternative mechanism in the generation of novel genetic recombinants that could be particularly valuable to ensure persistence in geographically isolated forests. In this paper, we take advantage of the longevity of a temperate-submediterranean mixed-oak forest to explore the long-term impact of environmental changes on two different oak species and their hybrid. Individual trees were genetically characterized and classified into three groups: pure Quercus petraea (Matt.), Liebl, pure Q. pyrenaica Willd, and hybrids. We calculated basal area increment and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) from tree-ring width and δ[13]C per genetic group, respectively. Tree-growth drivers were assessed using correlation analyses and generalized linear mixed models for two contrasting climatic periods: (1880-1915, colder with [CO2] < 303 ppm; and 1980-2015, warmer with [CO2] > 338 ppm). The three genetic groups have increased radial growth and iWUE during the last decades, being the least drought-tolerant QuPe the most sensitive species to water stress. However, no significant differences were found among genetic groups neither in mean growth rate nor in mean iWUE. Furthermore, little differences were found in the response to climate among groups. Genetic groups only differed in the relationship between δ[13]C and temperature and precipitation during the earlier period, but such a difference disappeared during the recent decades. Climate change may have promoted species-level convergence as a response to environment-induced growth limitations, which translated in synchronized growth and response to climate as well as a tighter stomatal control and increased iWUE across coexisting oak species.}, }
@article {pmid32594262, year = {2020}, author = {Yildiz, K and Karakaya, N and Kilic, S and Evrendilek, F}, title = {Interaction effects of the main drivers of global climate change on spatiotemporal dynamics of high altitude ecosystem behaviors: process-based modeling.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {7}, pages = {457}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08430-y}, pmid = {32594262}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {117Y193//T&#xfc;rkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Ara&#x15f;tirma Kurumu/ ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; Carbon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Soil organic carbon and nitrogen (SOC-N) dynamics are indicative of the human-induced disturbances of the terrestrial ecosystems the quantification of which provides insights into interactions among drivers, pressures, states, impacts, and responses in a changing environment. In this study, a process-based model was developed to simulate the eight monthly outputs of net primary productivity (NPP), SOC-N pools, soil C:N ratio, soil respiration, total N emission, and sediment C-N transport effluxes for cropland, grassland, and forest on a hectare basis. The interaction effect of the climate change drivers of aridity, CO2 fertilization, land-use and land-cover change, and best management practices was simulated on high altitude ecosystems from 2018 to 2070. The best management practices were developed into a spatiotemporally composite index based on SOC-N stock saturation, 4/1000 initiative, and RUCLE-C factor. Our model predictions differed from the remotely sensed data in the range of - 64% (underestimation) for the cropland NPP to 142% (overestimation) for the grassland SOC pool as well as from the global mean values in the range of - 97% for the sediment C and N effluxes to 60% for the total N emission from the grassland. The interaction exerted the greatest negative impact on the monthly sediment N efflux, total N emission, and soil respiration from forest by - 90.5, - 82.7, and - 80.3% and the greatest positive impact on the monthly sediment C effluxes from cropland, grassland, and forest by 139.3, 137.1, and 133.3%, respectively, relative to the currently prevailing conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32591640, year = {2020}, author = {Laurent, L and Buoncristiani, JF and Pohl, B and Zekollari, H and Farinotti, D and Huss, M and Mugnier, JL and Pergaud, J}, title = {The impact of climate change and glacier mass loss on the hydrology in the Mont-Blanc massif.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {10420}, pmid = {32591640}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {Grant 799904//European Commission Marie Sktodowska-Curie Action/International ; }, abstract = {The Mont-Blanc massif, being iconic with its large glaciers and peaks of over 4,000 m, will experience a sharp increase in summer temperatures during the twenty-first century. By 2100, the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and hydrosphere in the Alps is expected to lead to a decrease in annual river discharge. In this work, we modelled the twenty-first century evolution of runoff in the Arve river, downstream of Mont-Blanc's French side. For the first time for this region, we have forced a hydrological model with output from an ice-dynamical glacier model and 16 downscaled climate projections, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. By 2100, under RCP8.5 (high-emission scenario), the winter discharge of the Arve river remains low but is expected to increase by 80% when compared to the beginning of the century. By contrast, the summer season, currently the most important discharge period, will be marked by a runoff decrease of approximately 40%. These changes are almost similar according to a scenario with a lower warming (RCP4.5) and are mostly driven by glacier retreat. These shifts will have significant downstream impacts on water quantity and quality, affecting hydroelectric generation, agriculture, forestry, tourism and aquatic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid32590458, year = {2020}, author = {Deng, SZ and Jalaludin, BB and Antó, JM and Hess, JJ and Huang, CR}, title = {Climate change, air pollution, and allergic respiratory diseases: a call to action for health professionals.}, journal = {Chinese medical journal}, volume = {133}, number = {13}, pages = {1552-1560}, pmid = {32590458}, issn = {2542-5641}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Allergens ; Child ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity ; }, abstract = {Rising emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have warmed the planet substantially and are also accompanied by poor air quality. The increased prevalence of allergic airway disease worldwide can be partially attributed to those global environmental changes. Climate change and air pollution pose adverse impacts on respiratory allergies, and that the mechanisms are complex and interactive. Adverse weather conditions, such as extreme temperatures, can act directly on the respiratory tract to induce allergic respiratory illnesses. Thunderstorms and floods can alter the production and distribution of aeroallergens while wildfires and dust storms increase air pollution, and therefore indirectly enhance health risks. Concentrations of particulate matter and ozone in the air have been projected to increase with climate warming and air stagnation, and the rising temperatures and CO2 increase pollen, molds, and spores, which escalate the risk of allergic respiratory diseases. The synergistic effects of extreme heat and aeroallergens intensify the toxic effect of air pollutants, which in turn augment the allergenicity of aeroallergens. With the Earth's climate change, migration of humans and plants shift the living environments and allergens of susceptible people. Urban residents are exposed to multiple factors while children are sensitive to environmental exposure. Since climate change may pose many unexpected and persistent effects on allergic respiratory diseases, health professionals should advocate for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize its respiratory health effects.}, }
@article {pmid32589303, year = {2020}, author = {D'Amato, G and Chong-Neto, HJ and Monge Ortega, OP and Vitale, C and Ansotegui, I and Rosario, N and Haahtela, T and Galan, C and Pawankar, R and Murrieta-Aguttes, M and Cecchi, L and Bergmann, C and Ridolo, E and Ramon, G and Gonzalez Diaz, S and D'Amato, M and Annesi-Maesano, I}, title = {The effects of climate change on respiratory allergy and asthma induced by pollen and mold allergens.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {75}, number = {9}, pages = {2219-2228}, doi = {10.1111/all.14476}, pmid = {32589303}, issn = {1398-9995}, mesh = {Allergens ; *Asthma/epidemiology/etiology ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/etiology ; Pollen ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on the environment, biosphere, and biodiversity has become more evident in the recent years. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases. Change in climate and the correlated global warming affects the quantity, intensity, and frequency of precipitation type as well as the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, thunderstorms, floods, and hurricanes. Respiratory health can be particularly affected by climate change, which contributes to the development of allergic respiratory diseases and asthma. Pollen and mold allergens are able to trigger the release of pro-inflammatory and immunomodulatory mediators that accelerate the onset the IgE-mediated sensitization and of allergy. Allergy to pollen and pollen season at its beginning, in duration and intensity are altered by climate change. Studies showed that plants exhibit enhanced photosynthesis and reproductive effects and produce more pollen as a response to high atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO2). Mold proliferation is increased by floods and rainy storms are responsible for severe asthma. Pollen and mold allergy is generally used to evaluate the interrelation between air pollution and allergic respiratory diseases, such as rhinitis and asthma. Thunderstorms during pollen seasons can cause exacerbation of respiratory allergy and asthma in patients with hay fever. A similar phenomenon is observed for molds. Measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can have positive health benefits.}, }
@article {pmid32588727, year = {2020}, author = {Keten, A}, title = {Forensic medicine and migration relating to anti-democratic governments and climate change.}, journal = {Medicine, science, and the law}, volume = {60}, number = {4}, pages = {326-327}, doi = {10.1177/0025802420934660}, pmid = {32588727}, issn = {2042-1818}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forensic Medicine ; Government ; Humans ; *Refugees ; }, }
@article {pmid32586220, year = {2021}, author = {Heath, A}, title = {Climate change and its potential for altering the phenology and ecology of some common and widespread arthropod parasites in New Zealand.}, journal = {New Zealand veterinary journal}, volume = {69}, number = {1}, pages = {5-19}, doi = {10.1080/00480169.2020.1787276}, pmid = {32586220}, issn = {1176-0710}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Arthropods/*parasitology ; Cat Diseases/epidemiology/parasitology ; Cats ; Cattle ; Cattle Diseases/epidemiology/parasitology ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Dog Diseases/epidemiology/parasitology ; Dogs ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Humidity ; Livestock/parasitology ; New Zealand ; Parasites/*pathogenicity ; Parasitic Diseases, Animal/*epidemiology ; Pets/parasitology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change, in the form of global warming, is a current concern and because farming systems, livestock parasites and their hosts are influenced by the weather, it is possible to predict (albeit with some uncertainty) changes in these in some broadly descriptive fashion, as climate changes. This review examines the on- and off-host responses to potential changes in temperature and humidity of a representative selection of arthropod ectoparasites (sheep chewing louse, Bovicola ovis; sheep blowflies, Lucilla spp., Calliphora stygia, and Chrysomya rufifacies; cattle tick, Haemaphysalis longicornis; scrotal mange mite, Chorioptes bovis; cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis; and dog flea, Ctenocephalides canis) that occur in New Zealand and in many other countries, and how these environmental factors can be perturbed by host manipulation. The bioclimatic preferences of the parasites are examined in relation to future broad climate parameters and how parasite life cycles, seasonality and population dynamics may be influenced. Likely adaptations of farming systems to meet climate change imperatives are briefly discussed. Collectively it is estimated that regions of New Zealand faced with warmer, wetter conditions under climate change may see an increase in flystrike and cattle tick prevalence, and perhaps an increase in the biting louse, but fewer chorioptic mange and flea infestations. In contrast, drier, warmer regions will possibly experience fewer ectoparasites of all types with the exception of flea infestations. Economic effects of increases in ectoparasite prevalence, using approximate dipping costs as a model are examined, and risks posed to New Zealand by some exotic arthropod parasites with the potential to invade under climate change, are briefly outlined.}, }
@article {pmid32584659, year = {2020}, author = {Giesen, C and Roche, J and Redondo-Bravo, L and Ruiz-Huerta, C and Gomez-Barroso, D and Benito, A and Herrador, Z}, title = {The impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases in Africa.}, journal = {Pathogens and global health}, volume = {114}, number = {6}, pages = {287-301}, pmid = {32584659}, issn = {2047-7732}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anopheles ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mosquito Vectors ; *Vector Borne Diseases/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Despite being one of the continents with the least greenhouse gas emissions, no continent is being struck as severely by climate change (CC) as Africa. Mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) cause major human diseases in this continent. Current knowledge suggests that MBD range could expand dramatically in response to CC. This study aimed at assessing the relationship between CC and MBD in Africa. Methods For this purpose, a systematic peer review was carried out, considering all articles indexed in PubMed, Scopus, Embase and CENTRAL. Search terms referring to MBD, CC and environmental factors were screened in title, abstract and keywords.Results A total of twenty-nine studies were included, most of them on malaria (61%), being Anopheles spp. (61%) the most commonly analyzed vector, mainly in Eastern Africa (48%). Seventy-nine percent of these studies were based on predictive models. Seventy-two percent of the reviewed studies considered that CC impacts on MBD epidemiology. MBD prevalence will increase according to 69% of the studies while 17% predicted a decrease. MBD expansion throughout the continent was also predicted. Most studies showed a positive relationship between observed or predicted results and CC. However, there was a great heterogeneity in methodologies and a tendency to reductionism, not integrating other variables that interact with both the environment and MBD. In addition, most results have not yet been tested. A global health approach is desirable in this kind of research. Nevertheless, we cannot wait for science to approve something that needs to be addressed now to avoid greater effects in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32582849, year = {2020}, author = {Jun, SY and Kim, JH and Choi, J and Kim, SJ and Kim, BM and An, SI}, title = {The internal origin of the west-east asymmetry of Antarctic climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {6}, number = {24}, pages = {eaaz1490}, pmid = {32582849}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Recent Antarctic surface climate change has been characterized by greater warming trends in West Antarctica than in East Antarctica. Although this asymmetric feature is well recognized, its origin remains poorly understood. Here, by analyzing observation data and multimodel results, we show that a west-east asymmetric internal mode amplified in austral winter originates from the harmony of the atmosphere-ocean coupled feedback off West Antarctica and the Antarctic terrain. The warmer ocean temperature over the West Antarctic sector has positive feedback, with an anomalous upper-tropospheric anticyclonic circulation response centered over West Antarctica, in which the strength of the feedback is controlled by the Antarctic topographic layout and the annual cycle. The current west-east asymmetry of Antarctic surface climate change is undoubtedly of natural origin because no external factors (e.g., orbital or anthropogenic factors) contribute to the asymmetric mode.}, }
@article {pmid32582678, year = {2020}, author = {Rodriguez, R and Durán, P}, title = {Natural Holobiome Engineering by Using Native Extreme Microbiome to Counteract the Climate Change Effects.}, journal = {Frontiers in bioengineering and biotechnology}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {568}, pmid = {32582678}, issn = {2296-4185}, abstract = {In the current scenario of climate change, the future of agriculture is uncertain. Climate change and climate-related disasters have a direct impact on biotic and abiotic factors that govern agroecosystems compromising the global food security. In the last decade, the advances in high throughput sequencing techniques have significantly improved our understanding about the composition, function and dynamics of plant microbiome. However, despite the microbiome have been proposed as a new platform for the next green revolution, our knowledge about the mechanisms that govern microbe-microbe and microbe-plant interactions are incipient. Currently, the adaptation of plants to environmental changes not only suggests that the plants can adapt or migrate, but also can interact with their surrounding microbial communities to alleviate different stresses by natural microbiome selection of specialized strains, phenomenon recently called "Cry for Help". From this way, plants have been co-evolved with their microbiota adapting to local environmental conditions to ensuring the survival of the entire holobiome to improve plant fitness. Thus, the strong selective pressure of native extreme microbiomes could represent a remarkable microbial niche of plant stress-amelioration to counteract the negative effect of climate change in food crops. Currently, the microbiome engineering has recently emerged as an alternative to modify and promote positive interactions between microorganisms and plants to improve plant fitness. In the present review, we discuss the possible use of extreme microbiome to alleviate different stresses in crop plants under the current scenario of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32581227, year = {2020}, author = {Kodra, E and Bhatia, U and Chatterjee, S and Chen, S and Ganguly, AR}, title = {Physics-guided probabilistic modeling of extreme precipitation under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {10299}, pmid = {32581227}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit decision making. Existing state-of-the art approaches for uncertainty quantification use Bayesian methods to weight ESMs based on a balance of historical skills and future consensus. Here we propose an empirical Bayesian model that extends an existing skill and consensus based weighting framework and examine the hypothesis that nontrivial, physics-guided measures of ESM skill can help produce reliable probabilistic characterization of climate extremes. Specifically, the model leverages knowledge of physical relationships between temperature, atmospheric moisture capacity, and extreme precipitation intensity to iteratively weight and combine ESMs and estimate probability distributions of return levels. Out-of-sample validation suggests that the proposed Bayesian method, which incorporates physics-guidance, has the potential to derive reliable precipitation projections, although caveats remain and the gain is not uniform across all cases.}, }
@article {pmid32576822, year = {2020}, author = {Konapala, G and Mishra, AK and Wada, Y and Mann, ME}, title = {Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {3044}, pmid = {32576822}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Markov Chains ; Monte Carlo Method ; *Rain ; *Seasons ; Water ; }, abstract = {Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of "seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable". Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid32576175, year = {2020}, author = {Ryan, EC and Dubrow, R and Sherman, JD}, title = {Medical, nursing, and physician assistant student knowledge and attitudes toward climate change, pollution, and resource conservation in health care.}, journal = {BMC medical education}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {200}, pmid = {32576175}, issn = {1472-6920}, support = {UL1 TR001863/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; N/A//Yale Climate Change and Health Initiative/ ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Attitude ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Environmental Pollution ; Female ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Physician Assistants/*psychology ; Students, Medical/*psychology ; Students, Nursing/*psychology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and pollution generated by the health care sector impose significant public health burdens. This study aimed to assess medical, nursing and physician assistant student knowledge and attitudes regarding climate change, pollution from the health care sector, and responsibility for resource conservation within professional practice.<br><br>METHODS: In February-March, 2018, medical, nursing, and physician assistant students at Yale University (1011 potential respondents) were sent a 17-question online Qualtrics survey. Data analysis included descriptive statistics, as well as Fisher's exact test and logistic regression to assess associations between variables of interest and the personal characteristics of gender, age, geographic place of origin, school, and year in school (among medical students).<br><br>RESULTS: The response rate was 28% (280 respondents). 90% felt that physicians, nurses, and physician assistants have a responsibility to conserve resources and prevent pollution within their professional practice. 63% agreed or strongly agreed that the relationship between pollution, climate change, and health should be covered in the classroom and should be reinforced in the clinical setting. 57% preferred or strongly preferred reusable devices. 91% felt lack of time and production pressure, and 85% believed that lack of education on disease burden stemming from health care pollution, were barriers to taking responsibility for resource conservation and pollution prevention. Women and physician assistant students exhibited a greater commitment than men and medical students, respectively, to address pollution, climate change, and resource conservation in patient care and professional practice.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We found that health professional students are engaged with the concept of environmental stewardship in clinical practice and would like to see pollution, climate change, and health covered in their curriculum. In order for this education to be most impactful, more research and industry transparency regarding the environmental footprint of health care materials and specific clinician resource consumption patterns will be required.}, }
@article {pmid32576116, year = {2020}, author = {Tang, J and Swaisgood, RR and Owen, MA and Zhao, X and Wei, W and Pilfold, NW and Wei, F and Yang, X and Gu, X and Yang, Z and Dai, Q and Hong, M and Zhou, H and Zhang, J and Yuan, S and Han, H and Zhang, Z}, title = {Climate change and landscape-use patterns influence recent past distribution of giant pandas.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {287}, number = {1929}, pages = {20200358}, pmid = {32576116}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Temperature ; *Ursidae ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity globally, yet the influence of climate relative to other drivers of species depletion and range contraction remain difficult to disentangle. Here, we examine climatic and non-climatic correlates of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) distribution using a large-scale 30 year dataset to evaluate whether a changing climate has already influenced panda distribution. We document several climatic patterns, including increasing temperatures, and alterations to seasonal temperature and precipitation. We found that while climatic factors were the most influential predictors of panda distribution, their importance diminished over time, while landscape variables have become relatively more influential. We conclude that the panda's distribution has been influenced by changing climate, but conservation intervention to manage habitat is working to increasingly offset these negative consequences.}, }
@article {pmid32574509, year = {2020}, author = {Shankar, HM and Ewart, G and Garcia, E and Hicks, A and Hardie, W}, title = {COVID-19, Climate Change, and the American Thoracic Society. A Shared Responsibility.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {17}, number = {9}, pages = {1052-1055}, pmid = {32574509}, issn = {2325-6621}, mesh = {*Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Congresses as Topic ; Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/*prevention &amp; control ; *Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; *Pandemics/prevention &amp; control ; Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; SARS-CoV-2 ; *Societies, Medical ; *Thoracic Surgery ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid32572138, year = {2020}, author = {Shiru, MS and Shahid, S and Dewan, A and Chung, ES and Alias, N and Ahmed, K and Hassan, QK}, title = {Projection of meteorological droughts in Nigeria during growing seasons under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {10107}, pmid = {32572138}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Like many other African countries, incidence of drought is increasing in Nigeria. In this work, spatiotemporal changes in droughts under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were assessed; considering their greatest impacts on life and livelihoods in Nigeria, especially when droughts coincide with the growing seasons. Three entropy-based methods, namely symmetrical uncertainty, gain ratio, and entropy gain were used in a multi-criteria decision-making framework to select the best performing General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the projection of rainfall and temperature. Performance of four widely used bias correction methods was compared to identify a suitable method for correcting bias in GCM projections for the period 2010-2099. A machine learning technique was then used to generate a multi-model ensemble (MME) of the bias-corrected GCM projection for different RCP scenarios. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was subsequently computed to estimate droughts from the MME mean of GCM projected rainfall and temperature to predict possible spatiotemporal changes in meteorological droughts. Finally, trends in the SPEI, temperature and rainfall, and return period of droughts for different growing seasons were estimated using a 50-year moving window, with a 10-year interval, to understand driving factors accountable for future changes in droughts. The analysis revealed that MRI-CGCM3, HadGEM2-ES, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and CESM1-CAM5 are the most appropriate GCMs for projecting rainfall and temperature, and the linear scaling (SCL) is the best method for correcting bias. The MME mean of bias-corrected GCM projections revealed an increase in rainfall in the south-south, southwest, and parts of the northwest whilst a decrease in the southeast, northeast, and parts of central Nigeria. In contrast, rise in temperature for entire country during most of the cropping seasons was projected. The results further indicated that increase in temperature would decrease the SPEI across Nigeria, which will make droughts more frequent in most of the country under all the RCPs. However, increase in drought frequency would be less for higher RCPs due to increase in rainfall.}, }
@article {pmid32571954, year = {2020}, author = {Whitt, DB and Jansen, MF}, title = {Slower nutrient stream suppresses Subarctic Atlantic Ocean biological productivity in global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {27}, pages = {15504-15510}, pmid = {32571954}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Aquatic Organisms/*metabolism/radiation effects ; Atlantic Ocean ; Atmosphere/analysis/chemistry ; Earth, Planet ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Gases/adverse effects/analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrates/analysis/metabolism ; Nutrients/metabolism ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Sunlight ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Earth system models (ESMs) project that global warming suppresses biological productivity in the Subarctic Atlantic Ocean as increasing ocean surface buoyancy suppresses two physical drivers of nutrient supply: vertical mixing and meridional circulation. However, the quantitative sensitivity of productivity to surface buoyancy is uncertain and the relative importance of the physical drivers is unknown. Here, we present a simple predictive theory of how mixing, circulation, and productivity respond to increasing surface buoyancy in 21st-century global warming scenarios. With parameters constrained by observations, the theory suggests that the reduced northward nutrient transport, owing to a slower ocean circulation, explains the majority of the reduced productivity in a warmer climate. The theory also informs present-day biases in a set of ESM simulations as well as the physical underpinnings of their 21st-century projections. Hence, this theoretical understanding can facilitate the development of improved 21st-century projections of marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid32571436, year = {2020}, author = {Prasopdee, S and Kulsantiwong, J and Sathavornmanee, T and Thitapakorn, V}, title = {The effects of temperature and salinity on the longevity of Opisthorchis viverrini cercariae: a climate change concern.}, journal = {Journal of helminthology}, volume = {94}, number = {}, pages = {e165}, doi = {10.1017/S0022149X20000498}, pmid = {32571436}, issn = {1475-2697}, mesh = {Animals ; Asia, Southeastern ; *Climate Change ; Life Cycle Stages/physiology ; *Longevity ; Opisthorchis/*physiology ; *Salinity ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Research on the effects of environmental factors influenced by climate change on parasite transmissibility is an area garnering recent attention worldwide. However, there is still a lack of studies on the life cycle of Opisthorchis viverrini, a carcinogenic trematode found in countries of the Lower Mekong subregion of Lao PDR, Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand. To evaluate the influences of environmental factors water temperature and salinity on the transmissibility of the liver fluke O. viverrini through cercarial stage, longevity of O. viverrini cercaria was examined at different experimental temperatures (22°C, 30°C and 38°C) and salinities (2.5 parts per thousand (PPT), 3.75 PPT and 5 PPT). The results reveal that different temperatures have statistically significant effects on cercarial longevity. The cercariae exhibited a thermostability zone ranging between 22°C and 30°C. Cercarial longevity was significantly shortened when water temperatures reached 38°C. Salinity also plays a key role in cercarial longevity, with cercarial survival significantly shorter at a salinity of 3.75 PPT than at 2.5 PPT and 5 PPT. A combined analysis of salinity and temperature revealed unique trends in cercarial longevity. At all experimental salinities, cercarial longevity was lowest when incubated in 38°C, but statistically significant from cercarial longevity at temperatures of 22°C and 30°C, and salinities of 2.5 PPT and 5 PPT. The results suggest that higher temperatures negatively impact parasite longevity. This reflects that O. viverrini transmission patterns may be impacted by changes in water temperature and salinity resulting from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32570334, year = {2020}, author = {Détrée, C and Navarro, JM and Font, A and Gonzalez, M}, title = {Species vulnerability under climate change: Study of two sea urchins at their distribution margin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {728}, number = {}, pages = {138850}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138850}, pmid = {32570334}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Oceans and Seas ; *Sea Urchins ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In order to develop powerful predictions on the impact of climate change on marine organisms, it is critical to understand how abiotic drivers such as temperature can directly and indirectly affect marine organisms. Here, we evaluated and compared the physiological vulnerability of the leading-edge populations of two species of sea urchins Loxechinus albus and Pseudechinus magellanicus in response to predicted ocean warming and food limitation. After exposing sea urchins to a 60-day experimental period to contrasting temperature (1 °C, 7 °C and 14 °C corresponding respectively to the actual average summer temperature in Antarctica, the control treatment temperature and the predicted future temperature in the Strait of Magellan) and diet levels (ad libitum or food limitation), sea urchin stress tolerance was assessed. Sea urchins' physiology was measured at the organismal and sub-cellular level by studying the organisms energy balance (behavior, growth, gonad index, ingestion rate, O2 uptake, energy reserves) and the expression of genes associated with aerobic metabolism. Our results showed that at their distribution edge, and despite their distinct geographical repartition, both species might be resilient to ocean warming. However, the combination of ocean warming and food limitation reduced the stress tolerance of sea urchins. In a warming ocean, another strategy could be to migrate toward the pole to a cooler environment but incubation at 1 °C resulted in a diminution of both species' aerobic scope. Overall, if these engineer species are unable to acclimate to food limitation under future climate, population fitness could be affected with ecological and economic consequences.}, }
@article {pmid32570331, year = {2020}, author = {Smith, W and Grant, B and Qi, Z and He, W and Qian, B and Jing, Q and VanderZaag, A and Drury, CF and St Luce, M and Wagner-Riddle, C}, title = {Towards an improved methodology for modelling climate change impacts on cropping systems in cool climates.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {728}, number = {}, pages = {138845}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138845}, pmid = {32570331}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Assessment of the impact of climate change on agricultural sustainability requires a robust full system estimation of the interdependent soil-plant-atmospheric processes coupled with dynamic farm management. The simplification or exclusion of major feedback mechanisms in modelling approaches can significantly affect model outcomes. Using a biogeochemical model, DNDCv.CAN, at three case-study locations in Canada, we quantified the impact of using commonly employed simplified modelling approaches on model estimates of crop yields, soil organic carbon (SOC) change and nitrogen (N) losses across 4 time periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). These approaches included using climate with only temperature and precipitation data, annual re-initialization of soil status, fixed fertilizer application rates, and fixed planting dates. These simplified approaches were compared to a more comprehensive reference approach that used detailed climate drivers, dynamic planting dates, dynamic fertilizer rates, and had a continuous estimation of SOC, N and water budgets. Alternative cultivars and rotational impacts were also investigated. At the semi-arid location, the fixed fertilizer, fixed planting date, and soil re-initialization approaches reduced spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield estimates by 40%, 25%, and 29%, respectively, in the 2071-2100 period relative to the comprehensive reference approach. At both sub-humid locations, the re-initialization of soil status significantly altered SOC levels, N leaching and N runoff in all three time periods from 2011 to 2100. At all locations, SOC levels were impacted when using simplified approaches relative to the reference approach, except for the fixed fertilizer approach at the sub-humid locations. Results indicate that simplified approaches often lack the necessary characterization of the feedbacks between climate, soil, crop and management that are critical for accurately assessing crop system behavior under future climate. We recommend that modellers improve their capabilities of simulating expected changes in agronomy over time and employ tools that consider robust soil-plant-atmospheric processes.}, }
@article {pmid32570175, year = {2020}, author = {Terblanche, JS and Hoffmann, AA}, title = {Validating measurements of acclimation for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {41}, number = {}, pages = {7-16}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2020.04.005}, pmid = {32570175}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Insecta/*physiology ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Acclimation and other forms of plasticity that can increase stress resistance feature strongly in discussions surrounding climate change impacts or vulnerability projections of insects and other ectotherms. There is interest in compiling databases for assessing the adequacy of acclimation for dealing with climate change. Here, we argue that the nature of acclimation is context dependent and therefore that estimates summarised across studies, especially those that have assayed stress using diverse methods, are limited in their utility when applied as a standardized metric or to a single general context such as average climate warming. Moreover, the dynamic nature of tolerances and acclimation drives important variation that is quickly obscured through many summary statistics or even in effect size analyses; retaining a strong focus on the temporal-level, population-level and treatment-level variance in forecasting climate change impacts on insects is essential. We summarise recent developments within the context of climate change and propose how future studies might validate the role of acclimation by integration across field studies and mechanistic modelling. Despite arguments to the contrary, to date no studies have convincingly demonstrated an important role for acclimation in recent climate change adaptation of insects. Paramount to these discussions is i) developing a strong conceptual framework for acclimation in the focal trait(s), ii) obtaining novel empirical data dissecting the fitness benefits and consequences of acclimation across diverse contexts and timescales, with iii) better coverage of under-represented geographic regions and taxa.}, }
@article {pmid32569752, year = {2020}, author = {Robert, MA and Stewart-Ibarra, AM and Estallo, EL}, title = {Climate change and viral emergence: evidence from Aedes-borne arboviruses.}, journal = {Current opinion in virology}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {41-47}, pmid = {32569752}, issn = {1879-6265}, mesh = {Aedes/*physiology/virology ; Animals ; Arbovirus Infections/*transmission/virology ; Arboviruses/genetics/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Mosquito Vectors/*physiology/virology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is leading to increases in global temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns, both of which are contributing to the expansion of mosquito-borne arboviruses and the populations of the mosquitos that vector them. Herein, we review recent evidence of emergence and expansion of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitos that has been driven in part by environmental changes. We present as a case study of recent work from Córdoba, Argentina, where dengue has been actively emerging in the past decade. We review recent empirical and modeling studies that aim to understand the impact of climate on future expansion of arboviruses, and we highlight gaps in empirical studies linking climate to arbovirus transmission at regional levels.}, }
@article {pmid32567564, year = {2020}, author = {Di Giorgi, E and Michielin, P and Michielin, D}, title = {Perception of climate change, loss of social capital and mental health in two groups of migrants from African countries.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {56}, number = {2}, pages = {150-156}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_20_02_04}, pmid = {32567564}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Affective Symptoms/psychology ; Africa/ethnology ; *Climate Change ; Educational Status ; Female ; Health Status ; Humans ; Interview, Psychological ; Italy ; Male ; *Mental Health ; Neuropsychological Tests ; *Social Capital ; Transients and Migrants/*psychology ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The negative effects of climate change affect community subsistence models, thus determining an increase in social conflicts, a loosening of social capital, an increase in the incidence of traumas and diseases, and a push for migration.<br><br>AIM: This exploratory research compares the perception of climate change, as well as the reduction of social capital and mental health, in two groups of migrants arriving in Italy from African countries with high or extreme vulnerability to climate change.<br><br>METHODS: The perception of climate change and the degree of social capital were assessed with a semi-structured interview. The psychological condition was investigated through a clinical psychological interview and tests.<br><br>RESULTS: The group of migrants coming from countries with extreme exposure to climate change perceive greater vulnerability of their country and reports a greater loss of social capital. The level of education does not seem to affect the ability to perceive climate change. In the entire sample, there is a strong correlation between the perception of change and the loss of social capital, and between the loss of social capital and emotional disorders.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that actions to preserve the social capital of a community strongly exposed to climate change can mitigate the impact of change on mental health.}, }
@article {pmid32562994, year = {2020}, author = {Gaitán, E and Monjo, R and Pórtoles, J and Pino-Otín, MR}, title = {Impact of climate change on drought in Aragon (NE Spain).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {740}, number = {}, pages = {140094}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140094}, pmid = {32562994}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Droughts are one of the extreme climatic phenomena with the greatest and most persistent impact on health, economic activities and ecosystems and are poorly understood due to their complexity. The exacerbation of global warming throughout this century probably will cause an increase in droughts, so accurate studies of future projections at a local level, not done so far, are essential. Climate change scenarios of drought indexes for the region of Aragon (Spain) based on nine Earth System Models (ESMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) corresponding to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been generated for the first time. Meteorological Drought episodes were analysed from three main aspects: magnitude (index values), duration and spatial extent. The evolution of drought is also represented in a novel way, allowing identification, simultaneously, of the intensity of the episodes as well as their duration in different periods of accumulation and, for the first time, at the observatory level. Future meteorological drought scenarios based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) hardly show variations in water balance with respect to normal values. However, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) which, in addition to precipitation, considers evapotranspiration, shows a clear trend towards increasingly intense periods of drought, especially when considering cumulative periods and those at the end of the century. Representation of the territory of the drought indexes reflects that the most populated areas (Ebro Valley and SW of the region), will suffer the longest and most intense drought episodes. These results are key in the development of specific measures for adapting to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32562990, year = {2020}, author = {Ranjbar, MH and Etemad-Shahidi, A and Kamranzad, B}, title = {Modeling the combined impact of climate change and sea-level rise on general circulation and residence time in a semi-enclosed sea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {740}, number = {}, pages = {140073}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140073}, pmid = {32562990}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study provides an assessment of possible changes in the general circulation and residence time in the Persian Gulf under potential future sea-level rise and changes in the wind field due to the climate change. To determine the climate-change-induced impacts, Mike 3 Flow Model FM was used to simulate hydrodynamic and transport processes in the Persian Gulf in both historical (1998-2014) and future periods (2081-2100). Historical simulation was driven by ERA-Interim data. A statistical approach was employed to modify the values and directions of the future wind field obtained from the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) scenarios derived from CMCC-CM model of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The numerical model was calibrated and validated using measured data. Results indicated that in the historical period, residence time ranged between values of less than a month in the Strait of Hormuz and 10 years in the semi-enclosed area close to the south of Bahrain. The changes in wind field based on RCP 8.5 scenario were found to be the most disadvantageous for the Persian Gulf's capacity to flush dissolved pollutants out. Under this scenario, residence time would be 17% longer than that of historical one. This is mainly because the change in the wind field is large enough to overwhelm general circulation, showing a relationship between the residence time and the residual circulation. Impact of change in the wind field according to RCP 4.5 scenario on the modeled residence time is negligible. The numerical outputs also showed that the sea-level rise would slightly decrease the current velocity, resulting in a negligible increase in residence time. The findings of this study are intended to support establishing climate-adaptation management plans for coastal zones of the studied area in line with sustainable development goals.}, }
@article {pmid32562983, year = {2020}, author = {Zilli, M and Scarabello, M and Soterroni, AC and Valin, H and Mosnier, A and Leclère, D and Havlík, P and Kraxner, F and Lopes, MA and Ramos, FM}, title = {The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {740}, number = {}, pages = {139384}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139384}, pmid = {32562983}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global partial equilibrium model of the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy that includes various refinements reflecting Brazil's specificities. For the first time, projections of future agricultural areas and production are based on future crop yields provided by two Global Gridded Crop Models (EPIC and LPJmL). The climate change forcing is included through changes in climatic variables projected by five Global Climate Models in two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) participating in the ISIMIP initiative. This ensemble of twenty scenarios permits accessing the robustness of the results. When compared to the baseline scenario, GLOBIOM-Brazil scenarios suggest a decrease in soybeans and corn production, mainly in the Matopiba region in the Northern Cerrado, and southward displacement of agricultural production to near-subtropical and subtropical regions of the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes.}, }
@article {pmid32562043, year = {2020}, author = {Černý, J and Pokorný, R and Vejpustková, M and Šrámek, V and Bednář, P}, title = {Air temperature is the main driving factor of radiation use efficiency and carbon storage of mature Norway spruce stands under global climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {9}, pages = {1599-1611}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01941-w}, pmid = {32562043}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {MZE-RO0118//Ministerstvo Zem&#x11b;d&#x11b;lstv&#xed;/ ; QK1810415//N&#xe1;rodn&#xed; Agentura pro Zem&#x11b;d&#x11b;lsk&#xfd; V&#xfd;zkum/ ; }, mesh = {Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Czech Republic ; Norway ; *Picea ; Plant Transpiration ; Temperature ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Plant growth is affected by light availability, light capture, and the efficiency of light energy utilisation within the photosynthetic uptake processes. The radiation use efficiency (RUE) of four even-aged, fully stocked mature Norway spruce stands along a temperature, precipitation, and altitudinal gradient of the Czech Republic was investigated. A new straightforward, methodological approach involving an analysis of digital hemispherical photographs for RUE estimation was applied. The highest annual RUE value (0.72 g MJ[-1]) was observed in the stand characterised by the lowest mean annual air temperature, the highest annual amount of precipitation, located at the highest altitude, and with the lowest site index reflecting site fertility. From the viewpoint of global climate change mitigation, this stand fixed 4.14 Mg ha[-1] and 13.93 Mg ha[-1] of carbon units and CO2 molecules into above-ground biomass, respectively. The lowest RUE value (0.21 g MJ[-1]) within the studied growing season was found in the stand located at the lowest altitude representing the site with the highest mean air temperature and the lowest amount of precipitation where 1.27 Mg ha[-1] and 4.28 Mg ha[-1] of carbon units and CO2 molecules, respectively, were fixed. From the tested meteorological variables (mean air temperature, the monthly sums of temperature, precipitation, and air humidity), RUE was only significantly dependent on air temperature. Therefore, global warming can lead to diminishing RUE and carbon sequestration in Norway spruce stands, especially at low altitudes.}, }
@article {pmid32561759, year = {2020}, author = {Molina, C and Akçay, E and Dieckmann, U and Levin, SA and Rovenskaya, EA}, title = {Combating climate change with matching-commitment agreements.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {10251}, pmid = {32561759}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Countries generally agree that global greenhouse gas emissions are too high, but prefer other countries reduce emissions rather than reducing their own. The Paris Agreement is intended to solve this collective action problem, but is likely insufficient. One proposed solution is a matching-commitment agreement, through which countries can change each other's incentives by committing to conditional emissions reductions, before countries decide on their unconditional reductions. Here, we study matching-commitment agreements between two heterogeneous countries. We find that such agreements (1) incentivize both countries to make matching commitments that in turn incentivize efficient emissions reductions, (2) reduce emissions from those expected without an agreement, and (3) increase both countries' welfare. Matching-commitment agreements are attractive because they do not require a central enforcing authority and only require countries to fulfil their promises; countries are left to choose their conditional and unconditional emissions reductions according to their own interests.}, }
@article {pmid32561376, year = {2020}, author = {Trebicki, P}, title = {Climate change and plant virus epidemiology.}, journal = {Virus research}, volume = {286}, number = {}, pages = {198059}, doi = {10.1016/j.virusres.2020.198059}, pmid = {32561376}, issn = {1872-7492}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/virology ; Food Security ; Humans ; Plant Diseases/virology ; Plant Viruses/genetics/*pathogenicity/*physiology ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Changes in global climate driven by anthropogenic activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, have been progressively increasing and are projected to intensify. Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and temperature will have significant consequences for future food production, quality, distribution and security. The epidemiology of plant viruses will be altered in the future as a result of climate change. Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, increased temperature, changes to water availability and more frequent extreme weather events will have direct and indirect effects on plant viruses through changes in hosts and vectors. Predicted climatic changes will affect the distribution and survival of plant viruses and their vectors, which are expected to increase in many geographic regions. Furthermore, climate change can affect the virulence and pathogenicity of plant viruses, consequently increasing the frequency and scale of disease outbreaks. Thus, greater understanding of plant virus epidemiology is needed to better anticipate challenges ahead and to develop effective and robust control strategies that will aid in securing global food production for the future.}, }
@article {pmid32560995, year = {2020}, author = {Su, CW and Naqvi, B and Shao, XF and Li, JP and Jiao, Z}, title = {Trade and technological innovation: The catalysts for climate change and way forward for COP21.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {269}, number = {}, pages = {110774}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110774}, pmid = {32560995}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Commerce ; Internationality ; }, abstract = {Following the adaptation of the Paris Agreement at COP21, it was noted that the traditional measures of carbon emissions have several limitations; and a reliable and relevant carbon emissions measurement is important to formulate a response to the challenge of climate change. This study, therefore, explores the relationship between international trade and consumption-based carbon emissions, which is a trade adjusted indicator; and measures the outflow and the inflow of emissions through exports and imports separately. We also include technological innovation in the model to understand its impact on consumption-based carbon emissions. The results show that exports and consumption-based carbon emissions are negatively associated, and technological innovation helps reducing the adverse effect of CO2 growth. In contrast, Imports and gross domestic product are positively linked with consumption-based carbon emissions. The findings also suggest the countries which embraced the Paris Climate Agreement must focus on consumption-based carbon emissions rather than the production-based carbon emissions.}, }
@article {pmid32560420, year = {2020}, author = {Calderaro, F and Vione, D}, title = {Possible Effect of Climate Change on Surface-Water Photochemistry: A Model Assessment of the Impact of Browning on the Photodegradation of Pollutants in Lakes during Summer Stratification. Epilimnion vs. Whole-Lake Phototransformation.}, journal = {Molecules (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {25}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {32560420}, issn = {1420-3049}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Lakes/*chemistry ; *Models, Chemical ; *Photochemical Processes ; *Seasons ; *Sunlight ; }, abstract = {Water browning in lakes (progressive increase of the content of chromophoric dissolved organic matter, CDOM) has the potential to deeply alter the photodegradation kinetics of pollutants during summer stratification. Browning, which takes place as a consequence of climate change in several Nordic environments, causes the thermocline to be shallower, because higher CDOM decreases the penetration of sunlight inside the water column. Using a model approach, it is shown in this paper that pollutants occurring in the epilimnion would be affected differently depending on their main photodegradation pathway(s): almost no change for the direct photolysis, slight decrease in the degradation kinetics by the hydroxyl radicals ([•]OH, but the resulting degradation would be too slow for the process to be effective during summer stratification), considerable decrease for the carbonate radicals (CO3[•-]), increase for the excited triplet states of CDOM ([3]CDOM*) and singlet oxygen ([1]O2). Because it is difficult to find compounds that are highly reactive with CO3[•-] and poorly reactive with [3]CDOM*, the degradation rate constant of many phenols and anilines would show a minimum with increasing dissolved organic carbon (DOC), because of the combination of decreasing CO3[•-] and increasing [3]CDOM* photodegradation. In contrast, overall photodegradation would always be inhibited by browning when the whole water column (epilimnion + hypolimnion) is considered, either because of slower degradation kinetics in the whole water volume, or even at unchanged overall kinetics, because of unbalanced distribution of photoreactivity within the water column.}, }
@article {pmid32559529, year = {2020}, author = {Gong, X and Chen, Y and Wang, T and Jiang, X and Hu, X and Feng, J}, title = {Double-edged effects of climate change on plant invasions: Ecological niche modeling global distributions of two invasive alien plants.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {740}, number = {}, pages = {139933}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139933}, pmid = {32559529}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Introduced Species ; South America ; }, abstract = {The prediction of the potential distribution of invasive alien species is key for the control of their proliferation. This study developed ensemble niche models to explore the distribution patterns of Cecropia peltata and Ulex europaeus under baseline and future conditions, as well as the factors that regulate them. The models were based on occurrence records as well as climate, land-use and topography datasets. Climatic factors played a stronger role than land-use and topographical factors in their distribution patterns. Additionally, temperature seasonality and temperature annual range were the optimal predictor for the global distributions of C. peltata and U. europaeus, respectively. Under the baseline-RCP 8.5 scenario in 2070, significant increases in habitat suitability for C. peltata were generally detected in tropical regions, while for U. europaeus under the same condition, significant increases in habitat suitability were generally observed in west coast of South America and Europe, suggesting the impacts of climate changes on species distribution may be species specific. The contrast changes of suitable habitat areas for U. europaeus under the baseline-2.6 and 8.5 scenarios may suggest that the scenarios of climate changes may modify its distribution patterns and variations in suitable habitats. The double-edged effects of global warming on plant invasions may be a result of the scenario specific climate change and the species-specific responses to changes in climate. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change scenario specific and species-specific research on the impact of climate change on plant invasions.}, }
@article {pmid32559438, year = {2020}, author = {Williamson, J}, title = {Nuclear war, climate change, and medical activism.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {6}, pages = {e221-e222}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30127-3}, pmid = {32559438}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Personnel/*psychology ; *Nuclear Warfare ; *Political Activism/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid32559436, year = {2020}, author = {McMichael, C}, title = {Human mobility, climate change, and health: unpacking the connections.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {6}, pages = {e217-e218}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30125-X}, pmid = {32559436}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; *Human Migration ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32558904, year = {2020}, author = {Gérard, M and Vanderplanck, M and Wood, T and Michez, D}, title = {Global warming and plant-pollinator mismatches.}, journal = {Emerging topics in life sciences}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {77-86}, pmid = {32558904}, issn = {2397-8554}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Diet ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Insecta/*physiology ; Plant Development ; Plants/*parasitology ; Pollination/*physiology ; Symbiosis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The mutualism between plants and their pollinators provides globally important ecosystem services, but it is likely to be disrupted by global warming that can cause mismatches between both halves of this interaction. In this review, we summarise the available evidence on (i) spatial or (ii) phenological shifts of one or both of the actors of this mutualism. While the occurrence of future spatial mismatches is predominantly theoretical and based on predictive models, there is growing empirical evidence of phenological mismatches occurring at the present day. Mismatches may also occur when pollinators and their host plants are still found together. These mismatches can arise due to (iii) morphological modifications and (iv) disruptions to host attraction and foraging behaviours, and it is expected that these mismatches will lead to novel community assemblages. Overall plant-pollinator interactions seem to be resilient biological networks, particularly because generalist species can buffer these changes due to their plastic behaviour. However, we currently lack information on where and why spatial mismatches do occur and how they impact the fitness of plants and pollinators, in order to fully assess if adaptive evolutionary changes can keep pace with global warming predictions.}, }
@article {pmid32558115, year = {2020}, author = {Sanderson, CE and Alexander, KA}, title = {Unchartered waters: Climate change likely to intensify infectious disease outbreaks causing mass mortality events in marine mammals.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {8}, pages = {4284-4301}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15163}, pmid = {32558115}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {1518663//Directorate for Biological Sciences/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Caniformia ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Ecosystem ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Mammals ; }, abstract = {Infectious disease emergence has increased significantly over the last 30 years, with mass mortality events (MMEs) associated with epizootics becoming increasingly common. Factors influencing these events have been widely studied in terrestrial systems, but remain relatively unexplored in marine mammals. Infectious disease-induced MMEs (ID MMEs) have not been reported ubiquitously among marine mammal species, indicating that intrinsic (host) and/or extrinsic (environmental) ecological factors may influence this heterogeneity. We assess the occurrence of ID MMEs (1955-2018) across extant marine mammals (n = 129) in relation to key life-history characteristics (sociality, trophic level, habitat breadth) and environmental variables (season, sea surface temperature [SST] anomalies, El Niño occurrence). Our results show that ID MMEs have been reported in 14% of marine mammal species (95% CI 9%-21%), with 72% (n = 36; 95% CI 56%-84%) of these events caused predominantly by viruses, primarily morbillivirus and influenza A. Bacterial pathogens caused 25% (95% CI 14%-41%) of MMEs, with only one being the result of a protozoan pathogen. Overall, virus-induced MMEs involved a greater number of fatalities per event compared to other pathogens. No association was detected between the occurrence of ID MMEs and host characteristics, such as sociality or trophic level, but ID MMEs did occur more frequently in semiaquatic species (pinnipeds) compared to obligate ocean dwellers (cetaceans; χ[2] = 9.6, p = .002). In contrast, extrinsic factors significantly influenced ID MMEs, with seasonality linked to frequency (χ[2] = 19.85, p = .0002) and severity of these events, and global yearly SST anomalies positively correlated with their temporal occurrence (Z = 3.43, p = 2.7e-04). No significant association was identified between El Niño and ID MME occurrence (Z = 0.28, p = .81). With climate change forecasted to increase SSTs and the frequency of extreme seasonal weather events, epizootics causing MMEs are likely to intensify with significant consequences for marine mammal survival.}, }
@article {pmid32557877, year = {2021}, author = {Carroll, C and Noss, RF}, title = {Rewilding in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {155-167}, pmid = {32557877}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; North America ; }, abstract = {Expansion of the global protected-area network has been proposed as a strategy to address threats from accelerating climate change and species extinction. A key step in increasing the effectiveness of such expansion is understanding how novel threats to biodiversity from climate change alter concepts such as rewilding, which have underpinned many proposals for large interconnected reserves. We reviewed potential challenges that climate change poses to rewilding and found that the conservation value of large protected areas persists under climate change. Nevertheless, more attention should be given to protection of microrefugia, macrorefugia, complete environmental gradients, and areas that connect current and future suitable climates and to maintaining ecosystem processes and stabilizing feedbacks via conservation strategies that are resilient to uncertainty regarding climate trends. Because a major element of the threat from climate change stems from its novel geographic patterns, we examined, as an example, the implications for climate-adaptation planning of latitudinal, longitudinal (continental to maritime), and elevational gradients in climate-change exposure across the Yellowstone-to-Yukon region, the locus of an iconic conservation proposal initially designed to conserve wide-ranging carnivore species. In addition to a continued emphasis on conserving intact landscapes, restoration of degraded low-elevation areas within the region is needed to capture sites important for landscape-level climate resilience. Extreme climate exposure projected for boreal North America suggests the need for ambitious goals for expansion of the protected-area network there to include refugia created by topography and ecological features, such as peatlands, whose conservation can also reduce emissions from carbon stored in soil. Qualitative understanding of underlying reserve design rules and the geography of climate-change exposure can strengthen the outcomes of inclusive regional planning processes that identify specific sites for protection.}, }
@article {pmid32555535, year = {2020}, author = {Turney, C and Ausseil, AG and Broadhurst, L}, title = {Urgent need for an integrated policy framework for biodiversity loss and climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {8}, pages = {996}, pmid = {32555535}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid32552099, year = {2020}, author = {Bonebrake, TC and Rezende, EL and Bozinovic, F}, title = {Climate Change and Thermoregulatory Consequences of Activity Time in Mammals.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {196}, number = {1}, pages = {45-56}, doi = {10.1086/709010}, pmid = {32552099}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {Animals ; *Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Mammals/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; *Movement ; }, abstract = {Activity times structure the thermal environments experienced by organisms. In mammals, species shift from being nocturnal to diurnal and vice versa, but the thermal consequences of variable activity patterns remain largely unexplored. Here we used theoretical thermoregulatory polygons bounded by estimates of basal metabolic rates (BMR), maximum metabolic rates (MMR), and thermal conductance (C) in small mammals to explore the metabolic consequences of exposure to global-scale daytime and nighttime temperatures. Model predictions indicated higher metabolic scope for activity for nocturnal species at low latitudes and that reduced minimum C and larger body size increased the geographic range in which nocturnality was advantageous. Consistent with predictions, within rodents nocturnal species have low C. However, nocturnal mammals tend to be smaller than diurnal species, likely reflecting the importance of additional factors driving body size. Projections of warming impacts on small mammals suggest that diurnal species could lose habitable space globally. Conversely, warming could lift cool temperature constraints on nocturnal species and increase habitable space, suggesting that a shift toward nocturnal niches might be favored in a warming world. Taken together, these findings demonstrate the importance of energetic considerations for endotherms in managing global change impacts on nocturnal and diurnal species.}, }
@article {pmid32552020, year = {2020}, author = {Albright, K and Shah, P and Santodomingo, M and Scandlyn, J}, title = {Dissemination of Information About Climate Change by State and Local Public Health Departments: United States, 2019-2020.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {110}, number = {8}, pages = {1184-1190}, pmid = {32552020}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Information Dissemination ; Internet ; *Local Government ; *Public Health/trends ; *Social Media/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *State Government ; United States ; }, abstract = {Objectives. To determine if and how state and local public health departments present information about climate change on their Web sites, their most public-facing platform.Methods. We collected data from every functioning state (n = 50), county (n = 2090), and city (n = 585) public health department Web site in the United States in 2019 and 2020. We analyzed data for presence and type of climate-related content and to determine whether there existed clear ways to find climate change information. We analyzed Web sites providing original content about climate change for explanatory or attributional language.Results. Fewer than half (40%) of state health department Web sites, and only 1.6% of county and 3.9% of city Web sites, provided clear ways to find climate change information, whether through provision of original content or links to external agencies' Web sites. Among Web sites providing original content, 48% provided no explanation of climate change causes.Conclusions. National and global public health associations have identified climate change as a public health emergency, but most state and local public health departments are not delivering that message. These departments must be better supported to facilitate dissemination of reliable, scientific information about climate change and its effects on health.}, }
@article {pmid32551064, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, K and Liu, H and Pan, H and Shi, W and Zhao, Y and Li, S and Liu, J and Tao, J}, title = {Shifts in potential geographical distribution of Pterocarya stenoptera under climate change scenarios in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {4828-4837}, pmid = {32551064}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of a species' habitat can help humans address the potential threats which may change the scope and distribution of species. Pterocarya stenoptera is a common fast-growing tree species often used in the ecological restoration of riverbanks and alpine forests in central and eastern China. Until now, the characteristics of the distribution of this species' habitat are poorly known as are the environmental factors that influence its preferred habitat. In the present study, the Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP) were used to establish the models for the potential distribution of this species by selecting 236 sites with known occurrences and 14 environmental variables. The results indicate that both models have good predictive power. Minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), annual precipitation (Bio12), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) were important environmental variables influencing the prediction of the Maxent model. According to the models, the temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China had high environmental suitability for this species, where the species had been recorded. Under each climate change scenario, climatic suitability of the existing range of this species increased, and its climatic niche expanded geographically to the north and higher elevation. GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. The projected spatial and temporal patterns of P. stenoptera can provide reference for the development of forest management and protection strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32546552, year = {2020}, author = {Kuvadia, M and Cummis, CE and Liguori, G and Wu, CL}, title = {'Green-gional' anesthesia: the non-polluting benefits of regional anesthesia to decrease greenhouse gases and attenuate climate change.}, journal = {Regional anesthesia and pain medicine}, volume = {45}, number = {9}, pages = {744-745}, doi = {10.1136/rapm-2020-101452}, pmid = {32546552}, issn = {1532-8651}, mesh = {*Anesthesia, Conduction/adverse effects ; Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; }, abstract = {Volatile halogenated gases and nitrous oxide used as part of a balanced general anesthetic may contribute to global warming. By avoiding volatile inhalational agent use, regional anesthesia may reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help prevent global warming. We present a theoretical calculation of the potential benefits and a real-life example of how much regional anesthesia may reduce greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid32546223, year = {2020}, author = {Marques, R and Krüger, RF and Peterson, AT and de Melo, LF and Vicenzi, N and Jiménez-García, D}, title = {Climate change implications for the distribution of the babesiosis and anaplasmosis tick vector, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus.}, journal = {Veterinary research}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {81}, pmid = {32546223}, issn = {1297-9716}, support = {Senior Scholar//Fulbright Visiting Scholar Program/ ; Ph.D Sandwich 47/2017//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; }, mesh = {Anaplasmosis/transmission ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/microbiology/parasitology/*physiology ; Babesiosis/transmission ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Rhipicephalus/microbiology/parasitology/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change ranks among the most important issues globally, affecting geographic distributions of vectors and pathogens, and inducing losses in livestock production among many other damaging effects. We characterized the potential geographic distribution of the ticks Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus, an important vector of babesiosis and anaplasmosis globally. We evaluated potential geographic shifts in suitability patterns for this species in two periods (2050 and 2070) and under two emissions scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our results anticipate increases in suitability worldwide, particularly in the highest production areas for cattle. The Indo-Malayan region resulted in the highest cattle exposure under both climate change projections (2050), with increases in suitability of > 30%. This study illustrates how ecological niche modeling can be used to explore probable effects of climate change on disease vectors, and the possible consequences on economic dimensions.}, }
@article {pmid32543219, year = {2022}, author = {Lansbury Hall, N and Crosby, L}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Health in Remote Indigenous Communities in Australia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {32}, number = {3}, pages = {487-502}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2020.1777948}, pmid = {32543219}, issn = {1369-1619}, mesh = {Australia ; Climate Change ; *Health Services, Indigenous ; Housing ; Humans ; Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ; }, abstract = {Human-induced climate change in Australia is affecting the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including bushfires, cyclones and drought. Human health is affected by these climate impacts through direct impacts which include injuries and death from extreme events; indirect impacts through natural system changes such as impacts on water, food and air; and indirect impacts on human systems including mental health, productivity, and damage to housing and health-care facilities. Remote settlements are vulnerable to these climate impacts and associated health impacts due to isolated location, quality of the infrastructure, economic resources, limited transport, and existing health vulnerabilities that enable resilience or vulnerability. Remote Indigenous communities are particularly vulnerable. This research sought to identify vulnerabilities of human health of residents in remote Indigenous communities to human-induced climate change to contribute to adequate responses of prevention and preparation.}, }
@article {pmid32542573, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, K and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Dubrow, R}, title = {Projections of Ambient Temperature- and Air Pollution-Related Mortality Burden Under Combined Climate Change and Population Aging Scenarios: a Review.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {243-255}, doi = {10.1007/s40572-020-00281-6}, pmid = {32542573}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {*Age Factors ; Aged ; Aging ; Air Pollution/*analysis ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Female ; *Forecasting ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Population Dynamics/*trends ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change will affect mortality associated with both ambient temperature and air pollution. Because older adults have elevated vulnerability to both non-optimal ambient temperature (heat and cold) and air pollution, population aging can amplify future population vulnerability to these stressors through increasing the number of vulnerable older adults. We aimed to review recent evidence on projections of temperature- or air pollution-related mortality burden (i.e., number of deaths) under combined climate change and population aging scenarios, with a focus on evaluating the role of population aging in assessing these health impacts of climate change. We included studies published between 2014 and 2019 with age-specific population projections.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: We reviewed 16 temperature projection studies and 15 air pollution projection studies. Nine of the temperature studies and four of the air pollution studies took population aging into account by performing age-stratified analyses that utilized age-specific relationships between temperature or air pollution exposures and mortality (i.e., age-specific exposure-response functions (ERFs)). Population aging amplifies the projected mortality burden of temperature and air pollution under a warming climate. Compared with a constant population scenario, population aging scenarios lead to less reduction or even increases in cold-related mortality burden, resulting in substantial net increases in future overall (heat and cold) temperature-related mortality burden. There is strong evidence suggesting that to accurately assess the future temperature- and air pollution-related mortality burden of climate change, investigators need to account for the amplifying effect of population aging. Thus, all future studies should incorporate age-specific population size projections and age-specific ERFs into their analyses. These studies would benefit from refinement of age-specific ERF estimates.}, }
@article {pmid32540181, year = {2020}, author = {Ostojic, SM}, title = {Eat less meat: Fortifying food with creatine to tackle climate change.}, journal = {Clinical nutrition (Edinburgh, Scotland)}, volume = {39}, number = {7}, pages = {2320}, doi = {10.1016/j.clnu.2020.05.030}, pmid = {32540181}, issn = {1532-1983}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Creatine/*administration &amp; dosage ; *Food, Fortified ; Greenhouse Effect ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; *Meat Products ; *Meat-Packing Industry ; *Nutritive Value ; }, }
@article {pmid32539935, year = {2020}, author = {Muller, JE and Nathan, DG}, title = {COVID-19, nuclear war, and global warming: lessons for our vulnerable world.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {395}, number = {10242}, pages = {1967-1968}, pmid = {32539935}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Nuclear Warfare ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; }, }
@article {pmid32537981, year = {2020}, author = {Ji, XJ and Xu, YH and Zuo, X and Fang, WS and Lu, YY}, title = {[Estimating the climatic capacity of food security in Henan Province, China under the future climate change scenarios].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {853-862}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202003.011}, pmid = {32537981}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Forecasting ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {To explore the effects of future climate change on food production in Henan Province, the climate potential productivity and its change characteristics in Henan Province were calculated by agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model. This study was based on the production potential and climate resource carrying capacity of summer maize and winter wheat, combined with the observation data of 111 meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1961 to 2017 and the meteorological data under two emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2041-2080. With the grain demand index under different living standards, we analyzed climate carrying capacity and surplus space of Henan Pro-vince. The results showed that the average climatic potential productivity of maize was 18408.87 kg·hm[-2] from 1961 to 2017, with high values in the middle and east, and low values in the west. Compared with the reference period (1981-2010), climatic potential productivity of maize under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 decreased by 13.0% and 8.0% respectively, with the high value center shifting from the east to the southwest of Henan. The average climatic potential productivity of wheat was 10889.79 kg·hm[-2], which was high in the middle region and low in the north. Compared with the reference period, climatic potential productivity of wheat under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 decreased by 18.6% and 21.7%, respectively. Under the current condition of subsistence and well-off food demand, the maximum carrying capacity of climate resources respectively could support 252 million and 183 million people. In 2070s (2071-2080), the average supporting population of the maximum climate resource carrying capacity (Cmax) would decrease. Compared with the reference period, Cmax under the level of well-off and subsistence would decrease by 9.7% and 18.4% respectively in RCP4.5 scenario, and 7.7% and 16.6% respectively in RCP8.5 scenario. Under current climate condition, the relative surplus rate of climate resources in Henan Province ranged from -93.0% to 356.9%. Compared with the reference period, the relative residual rate of climate resources in the future would reduce nearly 40%.}, }
@article {pmid32537737, year = {2020}, author = {Wooliver, R and Tittes, SB and Sheth, SN}, title = {A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of thermal performance in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {74}, number = {8}, pages = {1699-1710}, doi = {10.1111/evo.14041}, pmid = {32537737}, issn = {1558-5646}, support = {1016272//USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture/International ; 1523866//NSF DBI/International ; }, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; California ; *Climate Change ; Mimulus/*genetics ; Phylogeography ; Seasons ; Thermotolerance/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Evolutionary rescue can prevent populations from declining under climate change, and should be more likely at high-latitude, "leading" edges of species' ranges due to greater temperature anomalies and gene flow from warm-adapted populations. Using a resurrection study with seeds collected before and after a 7-year period of record warming, we tested for thermal adaptation in the scarlet monkeyflower Mimulus cardinalis. We grew ancestors and descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations across eight temperatures. Despite recent climate anomalies, populations showed limited evolution of thermal performance curves. However, one southern population evolved a narrower thermal performance breadth by 1.31°C, which matches the direction and magnitude of the average decrease in seasonality experienced. Consistent with the climate variability hypothesis, thermal performance breadth increased with temperature seasonality across the species' geographic range. Inconsistent with performance trade-offs between low and high temperatures across populations, we did not detect a positive relationship between thermal optimum and mean temperature. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that evolutionary response to climate change is greatest at the leading edge, and suggest that the evolution of thermal performance is unlikely to rescue most populations from the detrimental effects of rapidly changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid32536734, year = {2020}, author = {Woodside, AG}, title = {Interventions as experiments: Connecting the dots in forecasting and overcoming pandemics, global warming, corruption, civil rights violations, misogyny, income inequality, and guns.}, journal = {Journal of business research}, volume = {117}, number = {}, pages = {212-218}, pmid = {32536734}, issn = {0148-2963}, abstract = {This essay applies the "ultimate broadening of the concept of marketing" for designing and implementing interventions in public laws and policy, national and local regulations, and everyday lives of individuals. The ultimate broadening of the concept of marketing: Marketing is any activity, message, emotion, or behavior by someone, firm, organization, government, community, or brand executed consciously or nonconsciously that may stimulate an observable or non-observable activity, emotion, attitude, belief, or thought by someone else, group, organization, firm or community. The broadening definition applies to the current interventions by national and state/provincial governments as well as healthcare facilities, medical science facilities, firms, and individuals to mitigate and eliminate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Framing interventions as experiments is helpful in improving the quality of their designs, implementing them successfully, and validly interpreting their effectiveness. In January and February 2020, a few nations were exemplars for accurately forecasting the coming disaster of COVID-19 as a cause of illness and death and in designing/implementing effective mitigating strategies: Denmark, Finland, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Norway, and Vietnam. While the COVID-19 prevention intervention tests now being run for several promising vaccines are true experiments, the researchers analyzing the data from these interventions may need prompting to examine the efficacy of each vaccine tested by modeling demographic subgroups for the members in the treatment and placebo groups in the randomized control trials.}, }
@article {pmid32535971, year = {2020}, author = {Pierangelini, M and Thiry, M and Cardol, P}, title = {Different levels of energetic coupling between photosynthesis and respiration do not determine the occurrence of adaptive responses of Symbiodiniaceae to global warming.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {228}, number = {3}, pages = {855-868}, pmid = {32535971}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; *Global Warming ; Oceans and Seas ; Photosynthesis ; Respiration ; Symbiosis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Disentangling the metabolic functioning of corals' endosymbionts (Symbiodiniaceae) is relevant to understanding the response of coral reefs to warming oceans. In this work, we first question whether there is an energetic coupling between photosynthesis and respiration in Symbiodiniaceae (Symbiodinium, Durusdinium and Effrenium), and second, how different levels of energetic coupling will affect their adaptive responses to global warming. Coupling between photosynthesis and respiration was established by determining the variation of metabolic rates during thermal response curves, and how inhibition of respiration affects photosynthesis. Adaptive (irreversible) responses were studied by exposing two Symbiodinium species with different levels of photosynthesis-respiration interaction to high temperature conditions (32°C) for 1 yr. We found that some Symbiodiniaceae have a high level of energetic coupling; that is, photosynthesis and respiration have the same temperature dependency, and photosynthesis is negatively affected when respiration is inhibited. Conversely, photosynthesis and respiration are not coupled in other species. In any case, prolonged exposure to high temperature caused adjustments in both photosynthesis and respiration, but these changes were fully reversible. We conclude that energetic coupling between photosynthesis and respiration exhibits wide variation amongst Symbiodiniaceae and does not determine the occurrence of adaptive responses in Symbiodiniaceae to temperature increase.}, }
@article {pmid32534623, year = {2020}, author = {Choudhary, S and Guha, A and Kholova, J and Pandravada, A and Messina, CD and Cooper, M and Vadez, V}, title = {Maize, sorghum, and pearl millet have highly contrasting species strategies to adapt to water stress and climate change-like conditions.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {295}, number = {}, pages = {110297}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2019.110297}, pmid = {32534623}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Dehydration ; Pennisetum/*physiology ; Plant Transpiration ; Sorghum/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; Zea mays/*physiology ; }, abstract = {This study compared maize, sorghum and pearl-millet, leading C4 cereals, for the transpiration rate (TR) response to increasing atmospheric and soil water stress. The TR response to transiently increasing VPD (0.9-4.1 kPa) and the transpiration and leaf area expansion response to progressive soil drying were measured in controlled conditions at early vegetative stage in 10-16 genotypes of each species grown in moderate or high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) conditions. Maize grown under moderate VPD conditions restricted TR under high VPD, but not sorghum and pearl millet. By contrast, when grown under high VPD, all species increased TR upon increasing VPD, suggesting a loss of TR responsiveness. Sorghum and pearl-millet grown under high VPD reduced leaf area, but not maize. Upon progressive soil drying, maize reduced transpiration at higher soil moisture than sorghum and pearl millet, especially under high VPD, and leaf area expansion declined at similar or lower soil moisture than transpiration in maize and sorghum. It is concluded that maize conserves water by restricting transpiration upon increasing VPD and under higher soil moisture than sorghum and millet, giving maize significantly higher TE, whereas sorghum and pearl millet rely mostly on reduced leaf area and somewhat on transpiration restriction.}, }
@article {pmid32534610, year = {2020}, author = {Sade, N and Peleg, Z}, title = {Future challenges for global food security under climate change.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {295}, number = {}, pages = {110467}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2020.110467}, pmid = {32534610}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crop Production/methods ; *Food Security/methods ; Forecasting ; }, }
@article {pmid32534609, year = {2020}, author = {Schlautman, B and Diaz-Garcia, L and Barriball, S}, title = {Reprint of: Morphometric approaches to promote the use of exotic germplasm for improved food security and resilience to climate change: A kura clover example.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {295}, number = {}, pages = {110415}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2020.110415}, pmid = {32534609}, issn = {1873-2259}, abstract = {Adaptation of agriculture to climate change and its associated ecological pressures will require new crops, novel trait combinations, and previously unknown phenotypic attributes to deploy in climate resilient cropping systems. Genebanks, a primary source of exotic germplasm for novel crops and breeding materials, need comprehensive methods to detect novel and unknown phenotypes without a priori information about the species or trait under consideration. We demonstrate how persistent homology (PH) and elliptical fourier descriptors (EFD), two morphometric techniques easily applied to image-based data, can serve this purpose by cataloging leaf morphology in the USDA NPGS kura clover collection and demarcating a leaf morphospace for the species. Additionally, we identify a set of representative accessions spanning the leaf morphospace and propose they serve as a kura clover core collection. The core collection will be a framework for monitoring the effects of climate change on kura clover in situ diversity and determining the role of ex situ accessions in modern agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid32533326, year = {2020}, author = {Coelho, S and Rafael, S and Coutinho, M and Monteiro, A and Medina, J and Figueiredo, S and Cunha, S and Lopes, M and Miranda, AI and Borrego, C}, title = {Climate-Change Adaptation Framework for Multiple Urban Areas in Northern Portugal.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {395-406}, pmid = {32533326}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Portugal ; Temperature ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly exerting pressure with intensified impacts in the short-, medium-, and long-term. Cities are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and it is recognized that they play a significant role in the European Strategy on adaptation to climate change. This study intends to develop a climate adaptation framework to identify effective measures that will be evaluated using a multi-urban area located in the north of Portugal, as a case study. The climate adaptation framework was developed following the Urban Adaptation Support Tool (AST), adapted to the Portuguese reality. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to provide future projections with a high level of spatial resolution over the study area, increasing the accuracy of the identification of future climatic vulnerabilities. The results show a tendency for an increase of extreme weather events associated with the increase of both temperature and annual accumulated precipitation variables. A set of both urban and rural measures to promote a sustainable development path to climate adaptability and increase cities resilience to climate change are presented and discussed.}, }
@article {pmid32531093, year = {2020}, author = {Levin, LA and Wei, CL and Dunn, DC and Amon, DJ and Ashford, OS and Cheung, WWL and Colaço, A and Dominguez-Carrió, C and Escobar, EG and Harden-Davies, HR and Drazen, JC and Ismail, K and Jones, DOB and Johnson, DE and Le, JT and Lejzerowicz, F and Mitarai, S and Morato, T and Mulsow, S and Snelgrove, PVR and Sweetman, AK and Yasuhara, M}, title = {Climate change considerations are fundamental to management of deep-sea resource extraction.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {9}, pages = {4664-4678}, pmid = {32531093}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//JM Kaplan Fund/International ; OCE 1634172//National Science Foundation/International ; BGI - 678760 (ATLAS)//European Union Horizon 2020/International ; 679849 (Sponges)//European Union Horizon 2020/International ; 747946//European Union Horizon 2020/International ; NA19OAR0110305//National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/International ; CLASS NE/R015953/1//UK Natural Environment Research Council/International ; IF/00029/2014/CP1230/CT0002//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia, Portugal/International ; IF/01194/2013/CP1199/CT0002//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia, Portugal/International ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/International ; //Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology/International ; //Pew Charitable Trusts/International ; 108-2611-M-002-001//Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan/International ; 108-//Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan/International ; 2119-M-001-019//Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan/International ; P2GEP3_171829/SNSF_/Swiss National Science Foundation/Switzerland ; }, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Minerals ; Mining ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Climate change manifestation in the ocean, through warming, oxygen loss, increasing acidification, and changing particulate organic carbon flux (one metric of altered food supply), is projected to affect most deep-ocean ecosystems concomitantly with increasing direct human disturbance. Climate drivers will alter deep-sea biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, and may interact with disturbance from resource extraction activities or even climate geoengineering. We suggest that to ensure the effective management of increasing use of the deep ocean (e.g., for bottom fishing, oil and gas extraction, and deep-seabed mining), environmental management and developing regulations must consider climate change. Strategic planning, impact assessment and monitoring, spatial management, application of the precautionary approach, and full-cost accounting of extraction activities should embrace climate consciousness. Coupled climate and biological modeling approaches applied in the water and on the seafloor can help accomplish this goal. For example, Earth-System Model projections of climate-change parameters at the seafloor reveal heterogeneity in projected climate hazard and time of emergence (beyond natural variability) in regions targeted for deep-seabed mining. Models that combine climate-induced changes in ocean circulation with particle tracking predict altered transport of early life stages (larvae) under climate change. Habitat suitability models can help assess the consequences of altered larval dispersal, predict climate refugia, and identify vulnerable regions for multiple species under climate change. Engaging the deep observing community can support the necessary data provisioning to mainstream climate into the development of environmental management plans. To illustrate this approach, we focus on deep-seabed mining and the International Seabed Authority, whose mandates include regulation of all mineral-related activities in international waters and protecting the marine environment from the harmful effects of mining. However, achieving deep-ocean sustainability under the UN Sustainable Development Goals will require integration of climate consideration across all policy sectors.}, }
@article {pmid32531086, year = {2020}, author = {Scheiter, S and Kumar, D and Corlett, RT and Gaillard, C and Langan, L and Lapuz, RS and Martens, C and Pfeiffer, M and Tomlinson, KW}, title = {Climate change promotes transitions to tall evergreen vegetation in tropical Asia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {9}, pages = {5106-5124}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15217}, pmid = {32531086}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {SCHE 1719/2-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; U1502264//Natural Science Foundation of China - Yunnan Government/ ; 01LL1802B//German Federal Ministry of Education and Research/ ; 01LL1801B//German Federal Ministry of Education and Research/ ; 2016CTF096//CAS-TWAS President's Fellowship for International Doctoral Students/ ; }, mesh = {Asia ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Trees ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Vegetation in tropical Asia is highly diverse due to large environmental gradients and heterogeneity of landscapes. This biodiversity is threatened by intense land use and climate change. However, despite the rich biodiversity and the dense human population, tropical Asia is often underrepresented in global biodiversity assessments. Understanding how climate change influences the remaining areas of natural vegetation is therefore highly important for conservation planning. Here, we used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version 2 (aDGVM2) to simulate impacts of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation formations in tropical Asia for an ensemble of climate change scenarios. We used climate forcing from five different climate models for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found that vegetation in tropical Asia will remain a carbon sink until 2099, and that vegetation biomass increases of up to 28% by 2099 are associated with transitions from small to tall woody vegetation and from deciduous to evergreen vegetation. Patterns of phenology were less responsive to climate change and elevated CO2 than biomes and biomass, indicating that the selection of variables and methods used to detect vegetation changes is crucial. Model simulations revealed substantial variation within the ensemble, both in biomass increases and in distributions of different biome types. Our results have important implications for management policy, because they suggest that large ensembles of climate models and scenarios are required to assess a wide range of potential future trajectories of vegetation change and to develop robust management plans. Furthermore, our results highlight open ecosystems with low tree cover as most threatened by climate change, indicating potential conflicts of interest between biodiversity conservation in open ecosystems and active afforestation to enhance carbon sequestration.}, }
@article {pmid32530199, year = {2020}, author = {Li, N and Bai, R and Wu, L and Li, W and Chen, M and Chen, X and Fan, CH and Yang, GS}, title = {[Impacts of future climate change on spring phenology stages of rubber tree in Hainan, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {31}, number = {4}, pages = {1241-1249}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202004.002}, pmid = {32530199}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Hevea ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {To explore the impacts of future climate change on spring phenology stages (first leaf storey expansion stage, spring flowering stage) of rubber tree in Hainan Island, we established a rubber tree spring phenology simulation model based on the crop clock model and developed a computer software RubberSP. The model simulation accuracy was examined with experimental observed phenology data. Five global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were integrated using Bayesian Model averaging method (BMA) to predict the impacts of climate change on the spring phenology of rubber tree in 2020-2099 (relative to 1986-2017) under climate scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The results showed that the RubberSP model had good simulation accuracy, with the determination coefficient (R[2]) values ranging between 0.73-0.87, the root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 3.26 to 4.15 d, and the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 3.4%-7.4% between measured and simulated phenology stages. The uncertainty of a single GCM could be avoided by BMA method, which could better reflect the change trend of temperature. Temperature of Hainan Island in the end of 21 century, under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, would increase by more than 0.3, 1.0 and 2.5 ℃ compared with the baseline, respectively. The spring phenology stages would appear earlier and yield would increase in the future climate scenario. The time isoline of spring phenology stages would move forward to northwest, which indicated that most suitable area for rubber tree plantation in Hainan Island would expand to the northwest. The spatial difference of the first leaf storey expansion stage would be more evident, but not for spring flowering stage. The amplitude of rubber tree spring phenology variations was closely related to the increases of temperature under different RCP scenarios, with the most apparent change under RCP8.5 scenario and most mild change under RCP2.6 scenario.}, }
@article {pmid32530127, year = {2020}, author = {Andersen, LK and Coates, SJ and Enbiale, W and Boos, MD and Dayrit, JF and Davis, MDP}, title = {Climate change perception among dermatologists: an online survey of International Society of Dermatology members.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {59}, number = {9}, pages = {e322-e325}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.14984}, pmid = {32530127}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Dermatologists ; *Dermatology ; Humans ; Perception ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid32530107, year = {2020}, author = {Monaco, CJ and Bradshaw, CJA and Booth, DJ and Gillanders, BM and Schoeman, DS and Nagelkerken, I}, title = {Dietary generalism accelerates arrival and persistence of coral-reef fishes in their novel ranges under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {5564-5573}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15221}, pmid = {32530107}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DP170101722//Australian Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Diet ; Fishes ; }, abstract = {Climate change is redistributing marine and terrestrial species globally. Life-history traits mediate the ability of species to cope with novel environmental conditions, and can be used to gauge the potential redistribution of taxa facing the challenges of a changing climate. However, it is unclear whether the same traits are important across different stages of range shifts (arrival, population increase, persistence). To test which life-history traits most mediate the process of range extension, we used a 16-year dataset of 35 range-extending coral-reef fish species and quantified the importance of various traits on the arrival time (earliness) and degree of persistence (prevalence and patchiness) at higher latitudes. We show that traits predisposing species to shift their range more rapidly (large body size, broad latitudinal range, long dispersal duration) did not drive the early stages of redistribution. Instead, we found that as diet breadth increased, the initial arrival and establishment (prevalence and patchiness) of climate migrant species in temperate locations occurred earlier. While the initial incursion of range-shifting species depends on traits associated with dispersal potential, subsequent establishment hinges more on a species' ability to exploit novel food resources locally. These results highlight that generalist species that can best adapt to novel food sources might be most successful in a future ocean.}, }
@article {pmid32529641, year = {2020}, author = {Linde, S}, title = {The Politicization of Risk: Party Cues, Polarization, and Public Perceptions of Climate Change Risk.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {40}, number = {10}, pages = {2002-2018}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13530}, pmid = {32529641}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {2011-1844//Swedish Research Council/International ; 2016-03058//Swedish Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Previous research shows that public perceptions of climate change risk are strongly related to the individual willingness to support climate mitigation and adaptation policy. In this article, I investigate how public perceptions of climate change risk are affected by communications from political parties and the degree of polarization among them. Specifically, using survey data from Sweden, Norway, Australia, and New Zealand, I study the relationship between party source cues, perceived polarization, and public perceptions of climate change risk. The results reveal a positive relationship between party cues and perceptions of climate change risk, indicating that individuals adjust their risk perceptions to align with their party preference. Furthermore, a negative relationship between perceived polarization and individual risk perceptions is also discovered, showing that individuals tend to be less concerned with climate change the more polarization they perceive. However, the effect of perceived polarization is found to be limited to more abstract perceptions of risk, while being unrelated to perceptions of concrete risks. Even with some contextual variance, the results generally hold up well across the four countries.}, }
@article {pmid32526496, year = {2020}, author = {Uchiyama, C and Stevenson, LA and Tandoko, E}, title = {Climate change research in Asia: A knowledge synthesis of Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (2013-2018).}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {188}, number = {}, pages = {109635}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109635}, pmid = {32526496}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Asia ; Asia, Southeastern ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Asia, Eastern ; }, abstract = {Countering climate challenges requires genuine multi-layered approaches in cooperation with various stakeholders. Spanning 20 years, the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) has been facilitating the research community to provide regional and grassroots results and solutions, while acting as a mechanism to encourage science-policy-stakeholder dialogue. This paper outlines the relevance of APN projects to IPCC policymaking by laying out knowledge products and lessons learned from the projects. It also narrates how regional research and capacity building assist in responding to the increasing urgency across climate change and the SDGs. A synthesis of project-generated knowledge was garnered from research and capacity development studies conducted under the auspices of APN to identify their scope and level of policy relevance. A combined typology and solution scanning with Likert scale as relevance rating was employed to categorize contribution against key themes of the IPCC sixth assessment report. Findings suggest 115 distinct and relevant projects completed mostly in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Temperate East Asia, with many of them asserting community-based adaptation and mitigation surrounding issues on ecosystems and biodiversity, extreme weather events, water-food-energy nexus, sustainable waste management, and climate education. Findings also show 163 knowledge products in which majority of them (66.87%) were peer-reviewed journal articles, 11.04% were reports, 7.98% were policy briefs, 6.75% were guidelines and tools, 4.91% were books and 2.45% were perspectives and opinions. With the evolving synergies between global climate targets and the SDGs, it is recommended that APN solidify its role in science-policy partnerships and networking by creating improved interlinkages for disseminating knowledge gaps filled and in replicating lessons learned and best practices found in APN knowledge products. In addition to science-policy dialogues and output synthesis, a regular review of APN research and capacity development outcomes will help in realizing these important aspects toward wider policy impact.}, }
@article {pmid32524610, year = {2020}, author = {Geffroy, B and Wedekind, C}, title = {Effects of global warming on sex ratios in fishes.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {97}, number = {3}, pages = {596-606}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.14429}, pmid = {32524610}, issn = {1095-8649}, support = {4320175237//FEAMP/ ; 31003A_125396//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#xf6;rderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Gonads/growth &amp; development ; Male ; Population Dynamics ; Sex Determination Processes/*physiology ; *Sex Ratio ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {In fishes, sex is determined by genetics, the environment or an interaction of both. Temperature is among the most important environmental factors that can affect sex determination. As a consequence, changes in temperature at critical developmental stages can induce biases in primary sex ratios in some species. However, early sex ratios can also be biased by sex-specific tolerances to environmental stresses that may, in some cases, be amplified by changes in water temperature. Sex-specific reactions to environmental stress have been observed at early larval stages before gonad formation starts. It is therefore necessary to distinguish between temperature effects on sex determination, generally acting through the stress axis or epigenetic mechanisms, and temperature effects on sex-specific mortality. Both are likely to affect sex ratios and hence population dynamics. Moreover, in cases where temperature effects on sex determination lead to genotype-phenotype mismatches, long-term effects on population dynamics are possible, for example temperature-induced masculinization potentially leading to the loss of Y chromosomes or feminization to male-biased operational sex ratios in future generations. To date, most studies under controlled conditions conclude that if temperature affects sex ratios, elevated temperatures mostly lead to a male bias. The few studies that have been performed on wild populations seem to confirm this general trend. Recent findings suggest that transgenerational plasticity could mitigate the effects of warming on sex ratios in some populations.}, }
@article {pmid32523595, year = {2020}, author = {Lyu, D and Backer, R and Subramanian, S and Smith, DL}, title = {Phytomicrobiome Coordination Signals Hold Potential for Climate Change-Resilient Agriculture.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {634}, pmid = {32523595}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {A plant growing under natural conditions is always associated with a substantial, diverse, and well-orchestrated community of microbes-the phytomicrobiome. The phytomicrobiome genome is larger and more fluid than that of the plant. The microbes of the phytomicrobiome assist the plant in nutrient uptake, pathogen control, stress management, and overall growth and development. At least some of this is facilitated by the production of signal compounds, both plant-to-microbe and microbe back to the plant. This is best characterized in the legume nitrogen fixing and mycorrhizal symbioses. More recently lipo-chitooligosaccharide (LCO) and thuricin 17, two microbe-to-plant signals, have been shown to regulate stress responses in a wide range of plant species. While thuricin 17 production is constitutive, LCO signals are only produced in response to a signal from the plant. We discuss how some signal compounds will only be discovered when root-associated microbes are exposed to appropriate plant-to-microbe signals (positive regulation), and this might only happen under specific conditions, such as abiotic stress, while others may only be produced in the absence of a particular plant-to-microbe signal molecule (negative regulation). Some phytomicrobiome members only elicit effects in a specific crop species (specialists), while other phytomicrobiome members elicit effects in a wide range of crop species (generalists). We propose that some specialists could exhibit generalist activity when exposed to signals from the correct plant species. The use of microbe-to-plant signals can enhance crop stress tolerance and could result in more climate change resilient agricultural systems.}, }
@article {pmid32520971, year = {2020}, author = {Krauss, A and Colombo, M}, title = {Explaining public understanding of the concepts of climate change, nutrition, poverty and effective medical drugs: An international experimental survey.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {e0234036}, pmid = {32520971}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; *Comprehension ; Female ; Humans ; *Internationality ; Male ; *Nutritional Status ; *Poverty ; Public Opinion ; Science ; *Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Climate change, nutrition, poverty and medical drugs are widely discussed and pressing issues in science, policy and society. Despite these issues being of great importance for the quality of our lives it remains unclear how well people understand them. Specifically, do particular demographic and socioeconomic factors explain variation in public understanding of these four concepts? To what extent are people's changes in understanding associated with changes in their behaviour? Do people judge scientific practices relying on the more descriptive concepts of climate change and effective medical drugs to be more objective (less controversial) than practices relying on the more value-laden concepts of poverty and healthy nutrition? To address these questions, an experimental survey and regression analyses are conducted using data collected from about one thousand participants across different continents. The study finds that public understanding of science is generally low. A smaller proportion of people were able to correctly identify the common explanation accepted internationally among the scientific community for climate change and effectiveness of medical drugs (42% and 43% of participants in the study, respectively) than for poverty and healthy nutrition (61% and 65% of participants, respectively). Older age and political non-conservativeness were the strongest predictors of correctly understanding these four concepts. Greater levels of education and political non-conservativeness were in turn the strongest predictors of people's reported changes in their behaviour based on their improved understanding of these concepts. Because climate change is among the least understood scientific concepts but is arguably the greatest challenge of our time, better efforts are needed to improve how media, awareness campaigns and education systems mediate information on the topic in order to tackle the large knowledge deficits that constrain behavioural change.}, }
@article {pmid32520636, year = {2021}, author = {Byers, JE}, title = {Marine Parasites and Disease in the Era of Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {397-420}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-031920-100429}, pmid = {32520636}, issn = {1941-0611}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*parasitology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Host-Parasite Interactions/*physiology ; Parasites/*physiology ; Parasitic Diseases/*etiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects ecological processes and interactions, including parasitism. Because parasites are natural components of ecological systems, as well as agents of outbreak and disease-induced mortality, it is important to summarize current knowledge of the sensitivity of parasites to climate and identify how to better predict their responses to it. This need is particularly great in marine systems, where the responses of parasites to climate variables are less well studied than those in other biomes. As examples of climate's influence on parasitism increase, they enable generalizations of expected responses as well as insight into useful study approaches, such as thermal performance curves that compare the vital rates of hosts and parasites when exposed to several temperatures across a gradient. For parasites not killed by rising temperatures, some simple physiological rules, including the tendency of temperature to increase the metabolism of ectotherms and increase oxygen stress on hosts, suggest that parasites' intensity and pathologies might increase. In addition to temperature, climate-induced changes in dissolved oxygen, ocean acidity, salinity, and host and parasite distributions also affect parasitism and disease, but these factors are much less studied. Finally, because parasites are constituents of ecological communities, we must consider indirect and secondary effects stemming from climate-induced changes in host-parasite interactions, which may not be evident if these interactions are studied in isolation.}, }
@article {pmid32519446, year = {2020}, author = {Kalogirou, MR and Olson, J and Davidson, S}, title = {Nursing's metaparadigm, climate change and planetary health.}, journal = {Nursing inquiry}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {e12356}, doi = {10.1111/nin.12356}, pmid = {32519446}, issn = {1440-1800}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health/*trends ; Humans ; Nursing/*trends ; }, abstract = {This paper offers a theoretical discussion on why the nursing profession has had a delayed response to the issue of climate change. We suggest this delay may have been influenced by the early days of nursing's professionalization. Specifically, we examine nursing's professional mandate, the generally accepted metaparadigm, and the grand theorists' conceptualizations of both the environment and the nurse-environment relationship. We conclude that these works may have encouraged nurses to conceptualize the environment, as well as their relationship with it, mainly in terms of the individual patient, and as such, nurses have not been encouraged to understand these concepts from a broader perspective. By not having the philosophical and theoretical foundations to understand the environment in relation to society, it is not surprising that nurses have had a delayed response to climate change and may not have viewed it as a professional concern. A planetary health perspective is suggested as a theoretical basis for nursing education, research and practice. Taking on a planetary health perspective could help nurses progress the profession and move healthcare systems towards supporting a climate-resilient future.}, }
@article {pmid32518851, year = {2020}, author = {Adjonou, K and Abotsi, KE and Segla, KN and Rabiou, H and Houetchegnon, T and Sourou, KNB and Johnson, BN and Ouinsavi, CAIN and Kokutse, AD and Mahamane, A and Kokou, K}, title = {Vulnerability of African Rosewood (Pterocarpus erinaceus, Fabaceae) natural stands to climate change and implications for silviculture in West Africa.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {e04031}, pmid = {32518851}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Pterocarpus erinaceus is a native tree species of the Guineo-Sudanian and Sudano-Sahelian zones where natural stands are under constant pressure and heavily exploited for timber, animal feeding and others uses. A part from the overexploitation, climate change could also become a serious threat to the species natural distribution. For that purposes, this study aims to assess the vulnerability of P. erinaceus potential niche to climate change within its natural distribution area in West Africa. Niche predictions are based on 6,981 natural occurrence of the species and 19 global bioclimatic variables available through WorldClim. The future niche of the species is predicted according to three concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) of BC model for 2050 and 2070, thanks to Maxent software. P. erinaceus is currently reported from Senegal to Cameroon. Its potential niche covers the Sudano-Sahelian zone and the Dahomey gap on approximately 17.42% of the total area of these countries. In general, the niche of the species is not sensitive to climate change, regardless of the climate scenario and the year. Compared to its initial niche, the niche of the species will increase from 22.33% to 43.61% in 2050 and from 27.12% to 53.61% in 2070. However, this ecological expansion observed mainly in the Gulf of Guinea, will be associated with a considerable decrease in the Sahel and central Nigeria. This study shows the importance of promoting the development of innovative silvicultural strategies for the extension and restoration of natural stands of P. erinaceus in order to meet sustainably the timber needs of the West African region. It helps also to strengthening the roles of natural forests in providing ecosystem services and mitigating climate change effects.}, }
@article {pmid32517948, year = {2020}, author = {Gomez-Zavaglia, A and Mejuto, JC and Simal-Gandara, J}, title = {Mitigation of emerging implications of climate change on food production systems.}, journal = {Food research international (Ottawa, Ont.)}, volume = {134}, number = {}, pages = {109256}, pmid = {32517948}, issn = {1873-7145}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Ecosystem ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Crops, livestock and seafood are major contributors to global economy. Agriculture and fisheries are especially dependent on climate. Thus, elevated temperatures and carbon dioxide levels can have large impacts on appropriate nutrient levels, soil moisture, water availability and various other critical performance conditions. Changes in drought and flood frequency and severity can pose severe challenges to farmers and threaten food safety. In addition, increasingly warmer water temperatures are likely to shift the habitat ranges of many fish and shellfish species, ultimately disrupting ecosystems. In general, climate change will probably have negative implications for farming, animal husbandry and fishing. The effects of climate change must be taken into account as a key aspect along with other evolving factors with a potential impact on agricultural production, such as changes in agricultural practices and technology; all of them with a serious impact on food availability and price. This review is intended to provide critical and timely information on climate change and its implications in the food production/consumption system, paying special attention to the available mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32514221, year = {2020}, author = {Goymann, W}, title = {What the Corona (SARS-CoV 2) pandemic, climate change, and the biodiversity crisis teach us about human nature.}, journal = {Ethology : formerly Zeitschrift fur Tierpsychologie}, volume = {126}, number = {6}, pages = {593-594}, pmid = {32514221}, issn = {0179-1613}, }
@article {pmid32514079, year = {2020}, author = {Sanderson, BM and O'Neill, BC}, title = {Assessing the costs of historical inaction on climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {9173}, pmid = {32514079}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {We consider alternative history scenarios in which explicit climate mitigation begins before the present day, estimating the total costs to date of delayed action. Considering a 2(1.5) degree Celsius stabilization target, peak costs are greater and reached sooner with a later start to mitigation, reaching 15(17)% of global GDP in 2085(2070) for a 1990 start and 18(35)% in 2080(2035) for a 2020 start. Further mitigation delay costs a best estimate of an additional 0.5(5) trillion dollars per year. Additional simulations show how optimal mitigation pathways evolve without imposing a warming limit, finding that median abatement levels and costs are not strongly dependent on start date. However, whereas 18(5) percent of optimal solutions starting in 1980 meet the 2(or 1.5) degree target, 5(or 0)% of 2020 simulations meet the goals. Discounted damages due to delayed mitigation action rise by 0.6 trillion US dollars per year in 2020.}, }
@article {pmid32513980, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, R and Yang, H and Wang, M and Zhang, Z and Huang, T and Wen, G and Li, Q}, title = {Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in China under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {9202}, pmid = {32513980}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Area Under Curve ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Hemiptera/*physiology ; ROC Curve ; }, abstract = {Climate change significantly affects geographic distribution of plants pests and diseases worldwide. Understanding the influence of future climate change on the suitable areas of Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama) in our country and taking timely countermeasures are crucial for improving the effectiveness of control of pest. Based on the occurrence points of D. citri and the selected environmental variables, the potential suitable areas of this pest under climate change scenarios in China were predicted by using MaxEnt and GIS tools. Our results showed that the higly suitable area were mainly located in Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Southern Zhejiang, Southern Jiangxi, Eastern Hunan, Southwestern Guizhou, and the area was 43.7 × 10[4] km[2]. Areas of moderate and low suitability were centered on areas of high suitability and radiate to the North successively, with an area of 59.28 × 10[4] km[2] and 93.46 × 10[4] km[2] respectively. From current to 2070 s, the areas of the highly suitable areas will increase, and the geometric center of the highly and total suitable areas will move to north under three climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid32510407, year = {2020}, author = {Basel, B and Goby, G and Johnson, J}, title = {Community-based adaptation to climate change in villages of Western Province, Solomon Islands.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {156}, number = {}, pages = {111266}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111266}, pmid = {32510407}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Islands ; Melanesia ; }, abstract = {People, local cultures and the environments they live in are complex and dynamic social-ecological systems that have evolved together over time and are continually affected by a myriad of factors, including climate and global changes. Escalating climate and global changes present an imminent threat to Pacific communities, particularly for food security, livelihoods, health and safety, cultural identity and biodiversity conservation. A participatory community-based climate change adaptation planning process was used to engage with communities on Rendova Island in Western Province, Solomon Islands to identify local adaptation priorities. The methodology recognized that local community members are the managers of the resources they use daily, have direct knowledge of the status of key local resources and have direct influence over ongoing resource governance. The study focused on two objectives: (1) identifying community priorities and documenting them in adaptation plans intended for local implementation, and (2) evaluating whether community adaptation priorities addressed key vulnerabilities identified independently using a semi-quantitative vulnerability assessment. The adaptation priorities identified by the communities encompassed: governance, leadership and planning; farming and livestock; sustainable livelihoods; natural resource management; and youth capacity building. The community adaptation priorities were found to address the key climate change vulnerabilities identified in the semi-quantitative assessment and also addressed additional drivers of social vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This finding reiterates the importance of fully inclusive and participatory vulnerability assessments and community-identification of adaptation priorities coupled with scientific climate projections to comprehensively assess the complexity of social-ecological systems. The climate change adaptation priorities have informed ongoing local actions and are intended to be used by communities, government and NGOs to focus local effort, funding and project development. A review of the suitability of the adaptation priorities by similar villages on neighbouring islands would determine the utility of scaling-up and applying these adaptations to other rural communities in the Solomon Islands, and possibly more widely in other Pacific communities.}, }
@article {pmid32509905, year = {2020}, author = {Mazhin, SA and Khankeh, H and Farrokhi, M and Aminizadeh, M and Poursadeqiyan, M}, title = {Migration health crisis associated with climate change: A systematic review.}, journal = {Journal of education and health promotion}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {97}, pmid = {32509905}, issn = {2277-9531}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The empirical assessment of the health outcomes associated with migration caused by climate change is still unclear. However, health outcomes in the early stages are expected to be similar to the health outcomes associated with refugees. The objective of the present study was a systematic review of the health effects of migration caused by climate change.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: A systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Online databases (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar) were used to identify papers published that evaluated the health effects of migration caused by climate change. The search, article selection, and data extraction were carried out by two researchers independently. All English-language articles on the health effects of migration caused by climate change were included in this study.<br><br>RESULTS: An analysis of the complex ways in which climate change influences populations can be facilitated using a three-class classification: compulsory displacement, resettlement planning, and migration. Subsequent to climate changes, other changes, and environmental deficiencies, compulsory displacement may occur in case of inadequacy of compatibility responses. A part of migration-related health outcomes caused by climate change is from displacement from rural to urban areas, especially in developing countries. There is significant documentation on health and livelihood inequalities between migrant groups and host populations in developed countries.<br><br>CONCLUSION: If climate change continues in its current direction, it is likely that the number of refugees and crises will increase in the coming decades. Although the domain and the extent of health hazards caused by the displacement of the population associated with climate change cannot be clearly predicted, by reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, along with social and environmental adaptation strategies, migration caused by climate change, health risks and its relevant crises can be greatly reduced.}, }
@article {pmid32508427, year = {2020}, author = {Rizvi, A and Chaudhary, R and Haider, M and Naseem, I}, title = {How climate change affects parasites: the case of trematode parasite Clinostomum complanatum and its fish host Trichogaster fasiatus.}, journal = {Journal of parasitic diseases : official organ of the Indian Society for Parasitology}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {476-480}, pmid = {32508427}, issn = {0971-7196}, abstract = {This study was undertaken to understand the impact of climate change on the ecology of infection of Clinostomum complanatum, a model trematode parasite. We analysed climate change data and data from infected fish over a period of seven years (2007-2013) from the Aligarh region (India) in this retrospective study. We show that infection of the trematode parasite Clinostomum complanatum (Rudolphi, 1814) in the forage fish Trichogaster facsiatus (Bloch &amp; Schneider, 1801) is dependent on surface air temperature amongst the (ecologically) relevant climate change variables for both the parasite and its host. This study is the first to implicate surface air temperature as an environmental variable that may contribute towards parasitism, particularly for parasites with a piscine host. The biological relevance of changing climate on the ecology of this parasite is discussed.}, }
@article {pmid32507491, year = {2020}, author = {Sorensen, CJ and Salas, RN and Rublee, C and Hill, K and Bartlett, ES and Charlton, P and Dyamond, C and Fockele, C and Harper, R and Barot, S and Calvello-Hynes, E and Hess, J and Lemery, J}, title = {Clinical Implications of Climate Change on US Emergency Medicine: Challenges and Opportunities.}, journal = {Annals of emergency medicine}, volume = {76}, number = {2}, pages = {168-178}, doi = {10.1016/j.annemergmed.2020.03.010}, pmid = {32507491}, issn = {1097-6760}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases ; Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Disaster Medicine ; *Disasters ; *Emergency Medicine ; Emergency Service, Hospital ; Heat Stress Disorders ; Humans ; Mental Disorders ; *Public Health ; Respiratory Tract Diseases ; Social Class ; United States ; Vector Borne Diseases ; *Vulnerable Populations ; Wounds and Injuries ; }, abstract = {The adverse influences of climate change are manifesting as health burdens relevant to clinical practice, affecting the very underpinnings of health and stressing the health care system. Emergency medicine is likely to bear a large burden, with its focus on urgent and emergency care, through its role as a safety-net provider for vulnerable populations and as a leader in disaster medicine. Clinically, climate change is affecting emergency medicine practice through the amplification of climate-related disease patterns and epidemiologic shifts for conditions diagnosed and treated in emergency departments (EDs), especially for vulnerable populations. In addition, climate-driven intensification of extreme weather is disrupting health care delivery in EDs and health care systems. Thus, there are significant opportunities for emergency medicine to lead the medical response to climate change through 7 key areas: clinical practice improvements, building resilient EDs and health care systems, adaptation and public health engagement, disaster preparedness, mitigation, research, and education. In the face of this growing health threat, systemwide preparation rooted in local leadership and responsiveness is necessary to efficiently and effectively care for our vulnerable communities.}, }
@article {pmid32503239, year = {2020}, author = {B Yeh, K and M Fair, J and Smith, W and Martinez Torres, T and Lucas, J and Monagin, C and Winegar, R and Fletcher, J}, title = {Assessing Climate Change Impact on Ecosystems and Infectious Disease: Important Roles for Genomic Sequencing and a One Health Perspective.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {32503239}, issn = {2414-6366}, abstract = {Changes in the Earth's climate and weather continue to impact the planet's ecosystems, including the interface of infectious disease agents with their hosts and vectors. Environmental disasters, natural and human-made activities raise risk factors that indirectly facilitate infectious disease outbreaks. Subsequently, changes in habitat, displaced populations, and environmental stresses that affect the survival of species are amplified over time. The recurrence and spread of vector-borne (e.g., mosquito, tick, aphid) human, animal, and plant pathogens to new geographic locations are also influenced by climate change. The distribution and range of humans, agricultural animals and plants, wildlife and native plants, as well as vectors, parasites, and microbes that cause neglected diseases of the tropics as well as other global regions are also impacted. In addition, genomic sequencing can now be applied to detect signatures of infectious pathogens as they move into new regions. Molecular detection assays complement metagenomic sequencing to help us understand the microbial community found within the microbiomes of hosts and vectors, and help us uncover mechanistic relationships between climate variability and pathogen transmission. Our understanding of, and responses to, such complex dynamics and their impacts can be enhanced through effective, multi-sectoral One Health engagement coupled with applications of both traditional and novel technologies. Concerted efforts are needed to further harness and leverage technology that can identify and track these impacts of climate changes in order to mitigate and adapt to their effects.}, }
@article {pmid32502870, year = {2020}, author = {Ashiq, W and Nadeem, M and Ali, W and Zaeem, M and Wu, J and Galagedara, L and Thomas, R and Kavanagh, V and Cheema, M}, title = {Biochar amendment mitigates greenhouse gases emission and global warming potential in dairy manure based silage corn in boreal climate.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {265}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {114869}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114869}, pmid = {32502870}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Charcoal ; Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Manure ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Silage ; Soil ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {About 11% of the global anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions result from agricultural practices. Dairy manure (DM) application to soil is regarded as a best management practice due to C sequestration and improvement of soil physiochemical properties. However, GHGs emissions from the soil following the DM application could offset its advantages. Biochar (BC) is known to affect N transformation and GHGs emissions from soil. There had been considerably less focus on the BC amendment and its effects on GHGs emissions following DM application under field conditions. The objectives of this study were; i) to determine the temporal patterns and cumulative GHGs fluxes following DM and inorganic nitrogen (IN) application and, ii) to investigate BC amendment impact on DMY, GWP, direct N2O emission factor (EFd) and the response of CH4 emissions (RC) in DM based silage corn. To achieve these objectives a two-year field experiment was conducted with these treatments: 1) DM with high N conc. (DM1: 0.37% N); 2) DM with low N conc. (DM2: 0.13% N); 3) IN; 4) DM1+BC; 5) DM2+BC; 6) IN + BC; and 7) Control (N0); and were laid out in randomized complete block design with four replications. BC amendment to DM1, DM2 and IN significantly reduced cumulative CO2 emission by 16, 25.5 and 26.5%, CH4 emission by 184, 200 and 293% and N2O emission by 95, 86 and 93% respectively. It also reduced area-scaled and yield-scaled GWP, EFd, RC and enhanced DMY. Thus, BC application showed great potential to offset the negative effects of DM application i.e GHGs emissions from the silage corn cropping system. Further research is needed to evaluate soil organic carbon and nitrogen dynamics (substrates for GHG emissions) after DM and BC application on various soil types and cropping systems under field conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32501189, year = {2020}, author = {Riddell, E and Sears, MW}, title = {Terrestrial Salamanders Maintain Habitat Suitability under Climate Change despite Trade-Offs between Water Loss and Gas Exchange.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {93}, number = {4}, pages = {310-319}, doi = {10.1086/709558}, pmid = {32501189}, issn = {1537-5293}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Energy Metabolism ; *Oxygen Consumption ; Urodela/*physiology ; *Water Loss, Insensible ; }, abstract = {Physiological acclimation has the potential to improve survival during climate change by reducing sensitivity to warming. However, acclimation can produce trade-offs due to links between related physiological traits. Water loss and gas exchange are intrinsically linked by the need for respiratory surfaces to remain moist. As climates warm and dry, organisms may attempt to lower desiccation risk by limiting water loss but at a cost of inhibiting their ability to breathe. Here we used laboratory experiments to evaluate the trade-off between water loss and gas exchange in a fully terrestrial, lungless salamander (Plethodon metcalfi). We measured acclimation of resistance to water loss and metabolic rates in response to long-term exposure to temperature and humidity treatments. We then integrated the trade-off into a simulation-based species distribution model to determine the consequences of ignoring physiological trade-offs on energy balance and aerobic scope under climate change. In the laboratory, we found a close association between acclimation of resistance to water loss and metabolic rates indicative of a trade-off. After incorporating the trade-off into our simulations, we found that energy balance and aerobic scope were reduced by 49.7% and 34.3%, respectively, under contemporary climates across their geographic range. Under future warming scenarios, incorporating the trade-off lowered the number of sites predicted to experience local extirpation by 52.2% relative to simulations without the trade-off; however, the number of sites capable of supporting the energetic requirements for reproduction declined from 44.6% to 32.6% across the species' geographic range. These experiments and simulations suggest that salamanders can maintain positive energy balance across their geographic range under climate change despite the costs associated with trade-offs between water loss and gas exchange.}, }
@article {pmid32499923, year = {2020}, author = {Kluczkovski, A and Cook, J and Downie, HF and Fletcher, A and McLoughlin, L and Markwick, A and Bridle, SL and Reynolds, CJ and Rivera, XS and Martindale, W and Frankowska, A and Moraes, MM and Birkett, AJ and Summerton, S and Green, R and Fennell, JT and Smith, P and Ingram, J and Langley, I and Yates, L and Ajagun-Brauns, J}, title = {Interacting with Members of the Public to Discuss the Impact of Food Choices on Climate Change-Experiences from Two UK Public Engagement Events.}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {2323}, pmid = {32499923}, issn = {2071-1050}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 204796/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Food systems contribute to up to 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and emissions are increasing. Since the emissions vary greatly between different foods, citizens' choices can make a big difference to climate change. Public engagement events are opportunities to communicate these complex issues: to raise awareness about the impact of citizens' own food choices on climate change and to generate support for changes in all food system activities, the food environment and food policy. This article summarises findings from our 'Take a Bite Out of Climate Change' stand at two UK outreach activities during July 2019. We collected engagement information in three main ways: (1) individuals were invited to complete a qualitative evaluation questionnaire comprising of four questions that gauged the person's interests, perceptions of food choices and attitudes towards climate change; (2) an online multiple-choice questionnaire asking about eating habits and awareness/concerns; and (3) a token drop voting activity where visitors answered the question: 'Do you consider greenhouse gases when choosing food?' Our results indicate whether or not people learnt about the environmental impacts of food (effectiveness), how likely they are to move towards a more climate-friendly diet (behavioural change), and how to gather information more effectively at this type of event.}, }
@article {pmid32498206, year = {2020}, author = {Pérez-Martínez, C and Rühland, KM and Smol, JP and Jones, VJ and Conde-Porcuna, JM}, title = {Long-term ecological changes in Mediterranean mountain lakes linked to recent climate change and Saharan dust deposition revealed by diatom analyses.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {727}, number = {}, pages = {138519}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138519}, pmid = {32498206}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Africa, Northern ; Climate Change ; *Diatoms ; Dust ; Ecosystem ; *Lakes ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change and the recent increase of Saharan dust deposition has had substantial effects on Mediterranean alpine regions. We examined changes in diatom assemblage composition over the past ~180 years from high-resolution, dated sediment cores retrieved from six remote lakes in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Southern Spain. In all lakes, changes in diatom composition began over a century ago, but were more pronounced after ~1970 CE, concurrent with trends in rising regional air temperature, declining precipitation, and increased Saharan dust deposition. Temperature was identified as the main predictor of diatom assemblage changes, whereas both Saharan dust deposition drivers, the Sahel precipitation index and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation, were secondary explanatory variables. Diatom compositional shifts are indicative of lake alkalinization (linked to heightened evapoconcentration and an increase in calcium-rich Saharan dust input) and reduced lake water turbulence (linked to lower water levels and reduced inflows to the lakes). Moreover, decreases in epiphytic diatom species were indicative of increasing aridity and the drying of catchment meadows. Our results support the conclusions of previous chlorophyll-a and cladoceran-based paleolimnological analyses of these same dated sedimentary records which show a regional-scale response to climate change and Saharan dust deposition in Sierra Nevada lakes and their catchments during the 20th century. However, diatom assemblages seem to respond to different atmospheric and climate-related effects than cladoceran assemblages and chlorophyll-a concentrations. The recent impact of climate change and atmospheric Saharan deposition on lake biota assemblages and water chemistry, as well as catchment water availability, will have important implications for the valuable ecosystem services that the Sierra Nevada provides.}, }
@article {pmid32498159, year = {2020}, author = {Gouvêa, LP and Assis, J and Gurgel, CFD and Serrão, EA and Silveira, TCL and Santos, R and Duarte, CM and Peres, LMC and Carvalho, VF and Batista, M and Bastos, E and Sissini, MN and Horta, PA}, title = {Golden carbon of Sargassum forests revealed as an opportunity for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {729}, number = {}, pages = {138745}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138745}, pmid = {32498159}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; *Sargassum ; Trees ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Marine climate change mitigation initiatives have recently attracted a great deal of interest in the role of natural carbon sinks, particularly on coastal systems. Brown seaweeds of the genus Sargassum are the largest canopy-forming algae in tropical and subtropical environments, with a wide global distribution on rocky reefs and as floating stands. Because these algae present high amounts of biomass, we suggest their contribution is relevant for global carbon stocks and consequently for mitigating climate change as CO2 remover. We modelled global distributions and quantified carbon stocks as above-ground biomass (AGB) with machine learning algorithms and climate data. Sargassum AGB totaled 13.1 Pg C at the global scale, which is a significant amount of carbon, comparable to other key marine ecosystems, such as mangrove forests, salt marshes and seagrass meadows. However, specific techniques related to bloom production and management, or the utilization of biomass for biomaterials, should be fostered.}, }
@article {pmid32494906, year = {2020}, author = {Papa, C and Nzokou, P and Mbow, C}, title = {Farmer Livelihood Strategies and Attitudes in Response to Climate Change in Agroforestry Systems in Kedougou, Senegal.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {66}, number = {2}, pages = {218-231}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-020-01302-8}, pmid = {32494906}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {A1102.2//US Borlaug Fellows in Global Food Security/International ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Senegal ; }, abstract = {Farmers managing agroecological systems across sub-humid West Africa face a variety of challenges in meeting their needs. In the face of adverse conditions, farmers have successfully managed agroforestry parklands to create an ecological equilibrium. However, climate change presents a challenging and new disturbance to farmer livelihood strategies. Using a qualitative approach and a rural livelihood framework, we analyzed and assessed farmer livelihood strategies, attitudes, and responses to climate change. Results showed that farmers are constantly changing management strategies through flexible and adaptable decision-making to mitigate negative disturbances, but climate change as a primary driver to change cannot be distinguished from other normal challenges that farmers face inter- and intra-annually. Through the accumulation of knowledge and adaptive management, farmers in Kedougou derive a variety of livelihood strategies to reduce risk in the face of uncertainty and variable climatic conditions. Furthermore, farmers used trees on farms to derive a multitude of ecosystem services provided not only provisioning services such as fuel, food, and fiber, but increased biodiversity, nutrient cycling, and climate regulation. Additional research is still needed to understand to what extent the inclusion of trees on farms affect various biophysical properties as well as rationale behind species choice.}, }
@article {pmid32494569, year = {2020}, author = {Palit, P and Kudapa, H and Zougmore, R and Kholova, J and Whitbread, A and Sharma, M and Varshney, RK}, title = {An integrated research framework combining genomics, systems biology, physiology, modelling and breeding for legume improvement in response to elevated CO2 under climate change scenario.}, journal = {Current plant biology}, volume = {22}, number = {}, pages = {100149}, pmid = {32494569}, issn = {2214-6628}, abstract = {How unprecedented changes in climatic conditions will impact yield and productivity of some crops and their response to existing stresses, abiotic and biotic interactions is a key global concern. Climate change can also alter natural species' abundance and distribution or favor invasive species, which in turn can modify ecosystem dynamics and the provisioning of ecosystem services. Basic anatomical differences in C3 and C4 plants lead to their varied responses to climate variations. In plants having a C3 pathway of photosynthesis, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) positively regulates photosynthetic carbon (C) assimilation and depresses photorespiration. Legumes being C3 plants, they may be in a favorable position to increase biomass and yield through various strategies. This paper comprehensively presents recent progress made in the physiological and molecular attributes in plants with special emphasis on legumes under elevated CO2 conditions in a climate change scenario. A strategic research framework for future action integrating genomics, systems biology, physiology and crop modelling approaches to cope with changing climate is also discussed. Advances in sequencing and phenotyping methodologies make it possible to use vast genetic and genomic resources by deploying high resolution phenotyping coupled with high throughput multi-omics approaches for trait improvement. Integrated crop modelling studies focusing on farming systems design and management, prediction of climate impacts and disease forecasting may also help in planning adaptation. Hence, an integrated research framework combining genomics, plant molecular physiology, crop breeding, systems biology and integrated crop-soil-climate modelling will be very effective to cope with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32494031, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, S and Dai, J and Ge, Q}, title = {Responses of Autumn Phenology to Climate Change and the Correlations of Plant Hormone Regulation.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {9039}, pmid = {32494031}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Acer/metabolism ; Aging/*metabolism ; Anacardiaceae/metabolism ; China ; Chlorophyll A/*analysis ; Circadian Rhythm ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant/physiology ; Ginkgo biloba/metabolism ; Plant Growth Regulators/*metabolism ; Plant Leaves/metabolism/physiology ; Salix/metabolism ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {Current understanding of autumn phenological responses to climate change in deciduous tree species remains limited, mainly due to the difficulties in defining autumn events and the lack of knowledge about its mechanism. Here we applied a method based on measuring chlorophyll A (Chla) content in leaf tissue during the entire autumn senescence processes to appropriately quantify autumn phenological processes. Beginning of leaf coloring could be defined as when about 50% of the Chl was lost. End of leaf coloring could be defined as when about 95% of the Chl was lost. Then the mechanism behind the timing of autumn senescence responses to climate change through hormone regulation was studied for the first time. Four dominate deciduous tree species with representative senescence type (Salix babylonica, Ginkgo biloba, Acer mono, Cotinus coggygria) were chosen as the subject of study. Variations in climate factors (temperature, day length, precipitation, humidity) were recorded and nine major endogenous hormones (IAA, IPA, ZR, DHZR, GA3, GA4, ABA, MeJA, BR) in leaf tissues were monitored during the entire autumn senescence processes. The experimental results verified temperature and day length are the major climate factors affecting autumn phenology. Low temperature and short day length could result in the decrease of ZR level and the increase of ABA level in leaf tissue, which directly trigger/promote senescence. Meanwhile, low temperature and short day length could cause the decrease of MeJA level and the increase of GA3 and GA4 level, which regulate the timing of autumn senescence indirectly through ZR, ABA, and IAA. Our study improves the understanding of autumn phenological response to climate change in deciduous trees.}, }
@article {pmid32493944, year = {2020}, author = {Contador, T and Gañan, M and Bizama, G and Fuentes-Jaque, G and Morales, L and Rendoll, J and Simoes, F and Kennedy, J and Rozzi, R and Convey, P}, title = {Assessing distribution shifts and ecophysiological characteristics of the only Antarctic winged midge under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {9087}, pmid = {32493944}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Parts of Antarctica were amongst the most rapidly changing regions of the planet during the second half of the Twentieth Century. Even so, today, most of Antarctica remains in the grip of continental ice sheets, with only about 0.2% of its overall area being ice-free. The continent's terrestrial fauna consists only of invertebrates, with just two native species of insects, the chironomid midges Parochlus steinenii and Belgica antarctica. We integrate ecophysiological information with the development of new high-resolution climatic layers for Antarctica, to better understand how the distribution of P. steinenii may respond to change over the next century under different IPCC climate change scenarios. We conclude that the species has the potential to expand its distribution to include parts of the west and east coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula and even coastal ice-free areas in parts of continental Antarctica. We propose P. steinenii as an effective native sentinel and indicator species of climate change in the Antarctic.}, }
@article {pmid32492591, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, H and Rücker, AM and Su, Q and Blosser, GD and Liu, X and Conner, WH and Chow, AT}, title = {Dynamics of dissolved organic matter and disinfection byproduct precursors along a low elevation gradient in woody wetlands - an implication of hydrologic impacts of climate change on source water quality.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {181}, number = {}, pages = {115908}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2020.115908}, pmid = {32492591}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Disinfection ; South Carolina ; Trihalomethanes ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical ; *Water Purification ; Water Quality ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Foliar litter is an important terrestrial source of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in the source water supply. Climate changes could alter precipitation patterns and hydroperiods in woody wetlands, resulting in a hydrologic shift along the low elevation gradient and change the productions of DOC and DBP precursors and their exports to source water. Here, we conducted an 80-week field decomposition study using fresh-fallen leaves along an elevation gradient, representing well-drained, relatively moist, and inundated environments, in Congaree National Park, South Carolina. The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) yield and formation potential (FP) of trihalomethanes (THMs; a dominant category of studied DBPs) were 48.9-79.7 mg-DOC/g-litter and 2.23-6.57 mg/g-litter in the freshly fallen leaf litter, respectively. The level of leachable DOM and its DBP FP decreased with time, and during the first 16 weeks of decomposition, the decomposing litter served as an important source of leachable DOM and DBP precursors. Week 28 was a turning point for DOM optical properties, with fewer tyrosine/tryptophan/soluble microbial byproduct-like compounds and more aromatic, humified, and fulvic/humic acid-like compounds. Litterfall primarily occurred from September to January, while less precipitation occurred from October to January, indicating that large amounts of DOC and DBP precursors could be leached from litterfall in February. In the first 16 weeks of field exposure study, we observed higher residual mass and lower water-extractable DOC and DTN in more inundated environments, demonstrating that the shifts of DOM composition and DBP precursors if climate reduces rainfall in the southeastern US.}, }
@article {pmid32489602, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, Y and Meng, Q and Wang, Y and Zhang, X and Wang, W}, title = {Climate change-induced migration patterns and extinction risks of Theaceae species in China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {4352-4361}, pmid = {32489602}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China, Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore, predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant, immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted conservation strategies. Regions containing numerous emigrants are concentrated in Northern Taiwan and coastal regions of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while regions containing numerous immigrants include central Sichuan Province, the southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest Yunnan Province, northwest Sichuan Province, and the junction of Guangxi and Hunan provinces. Lastly, regions containing persistent species are widely distributed in southern China. Importantly, regions with high species turnover are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation efficiency.}, }
@article {pmid32488356, year = {2020}, author = {Azhdari, Z and Rafeie Sardooi, E and Bazrafshan, O and Zamani, H and Singh, VP and Mohseni Saravi, M and Ramezani, M}, title = {Impact of climate change on net primary production (NPP) in south Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {6}, pages = {409}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08389-w}, pmid = {32488356}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Iran ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a natural hazard which threatens the sustainable development of human health, food security, economic well-being, and natural resources. It also affects photosynthesis, plant respiration, and decomposition of organic matter that contribute to atmospheric carbon flow. The net primary production (NPP) is one of the main components of carbon balance. This study investigated the impact of climatic change on the net production in the Hormozgan county in south Iran. To obtain NPP, MODIS NPP product (MOD17A3) was used and future temperature and precipitation values were obtained using the HadGEM2-ES model under the RCP4.5 scenario. These values were downscaled using the LARSWG 6 statistical model, and precipitation and temperature were simulated for the RCP4.5 scenario. For further analysis, NPP was simulated based on the BIOME-BGC model and compared with the NPP data obtained from the MODIS images. Comparison of the climatic parameters of the basic (2001-2015) and future (2016-2030) periods indicated an increase in precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature of the study area and subsequently an increase in the NPP value in all biomes (averagely 17.73%) in the future. The highest NPP values were observed in the central and western parts of the region in biomes 4 (mangrove forest cover), 10 (broadleaf forest vegetation), and 6, 5, and 1 (rangeland vegetation), respectively, and the lowest values were observed in the eastern parts. Results showed that the increase in future NPP could be due to the increase in precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid32488006, year = {2020}, author = {Seersholm, FV and Werndly, DJ and Grealy, A and Johnson, T and Keenan Early, EM and Lundelius, EL and Winsborough, B and Farr, GE and Toomey, R and Hansen, AJ and Shapiro, B and Waters, MR and McDonald, G and Linderholm, A and Stafford, TW and Bunce, M}, title = {Rapid range shifts and megafaunal extinctions associated with late Pleistocene climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2770}, pmid = {32488006}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {/HHMI/Howard Hughes Medical Institute/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Fossils ; High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing ; Paleontology ; Plants/genetics ; Sequence Analysis ; Texas ; }, abstract = {Large-scale changes in global climate at the end of the Pleistocene significantly impacted ecosystems across North America. However, the pace and scale of biotic turnover in response to both the Younger Dryas cold period and subsequent Holocene rapid warming have been challenging to assess because of the scarcity of well dated fossil and pollen records that covers this period. Here we present an ancient DNA record from Hall's Cave, Texas, that documents 100 vertebrate and 45 plant taxa from bulk fossils and sediment. We show that local plant and animal diversity dropped markedly during Younger Dryas cooling, but while plant diversity recovered in the early Holocene, animal diversity did not. Instead, five extant and nine extinct large bodied animals disappeared from the region at the end of the Pleistocene. Our findings suggest that climate change affected the local ecosystem in Texas over the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary, but climate change on its own may not explain the disappearance of the megafauna at the end of the Pleistocene.}, }
@article {pmid32487279, year = {2021}, author = {Mörchen, M and Ocasiones, E and Relator, R and Lewis, D}, title = {Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Disability: Do We "Leave No One Behind"?.}, journal = {Disaster medicine and public health preparedness}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {537-538}, doi = {10.1017/dmp.2020.79}, pmid = {32487279}, issn = {1938-744X}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Disabled Persons ; *Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; Employment ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32485868, year = {2020}, author = {Azarkamand, S and Wooldridge, C and Darbra, RM}, title = {Review of Initiatives and Methodologies to Reduce CO2 Emissions and Climate Change Effects in Ports.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {32485868}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide ; Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Gases ; Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {Ports are important infrastructures for economic growth and development. Among the most significant environmental aspects of ports that contribute to the issue of climate change are those due to carbon dioxide emissions generated by port activities. Given the importance of this topic, this paper gathers initiatives and methodologies that have been undertaken to calculate and reduce CO2 emissions and climate change effects in ports. After studying these methodologies, their strengths and opportunities for further enhancement have been analyzed. The results show that, in recent years, several ports have started to calculate their carbon footprint and report it. However, in some of the cases, not all the sources of GHG gases that are occurring actually in ports are taken into account, such as emissions from waste treatment operations and employees' commuting. On other occasions, scopes are not defined following standard guidelines. Furthermore, each authority or operator uses its own method to calculate CO2 emissions, which makes the comparison of results difficult. For these reasons, this paper suggests the need for creating a standardized tool to calculate carbon footprint in ports, which will make it possible to establish a benchmark and a potential comparison of results among ports.}, }
@article {pmid32485751, year = {2021}, author = {Looks, P and Borchers, P and Reinfried, F and Oertel, H and Kugler, J}, title = {[Environmental Justice: Subjective Heat Exposure as a Result of Climate Change in Contrasting Urban Neighborhoods].}, journal = {Gesundheitswesen (Bundesverband der Arzte des Offentlichen Gesundheitsdienstes (Germany))}, volume = {83}, number = {4}, pages = {303-308}, doi = {10.1055/a-1138-0355}, pmid = {32485751}, issn = {1439-4421}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure ; Germany ; *Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The City of Dresden has no data on the perception of climate change and the associated increase in the average temperature during summer times yet. The data are needed to develop targeted action for vulnerable groups.<br><br>METHOD: To close this gap, a representative survey of the population was carried out in Dresden in 2017. Two urban districts, which differ from one another both in terms of urban planning and social structure, were compared, in particular, regarding the question of whether there was a fair distribution or procedural justice concerning the effects of subjective heat burden and influencing factors.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that especially inhabitants of the urban area with predominantly prefabricated buildings, less green space and an increased proportion of socially disadvantaged felt more exposed to the summer heat and had fewer opportunities to adapt to the high temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSION: In addition to urban development measures, the results can be used to derive measures for the prevention of heat-related illnesses. These require, for example, increased advice and health education locally to reach people.}, }
@article {pmid32485590, year = {2020}, author = {Gibson, KE and Barnett, J and Haslam, N and Kaplan, I}, title = {The mental health impacts of climate change: Findings from a Pacific Island atoll nation.}, journal = {Journal of anxiety disorders}, volume = {73}, number = {}, pages = {102237}, doi = {10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102237}, pmid = {32485590}, issn = {1873-7897}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environment ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Mental Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Middle Aged ; Pacific Islands/epidemiology ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is anticipated to have profound effects on mental health, particularly among populations that are simultaneously ecologically and economically vulnerable to its impacts. Various pathways through which climate change can impact mental health have been theorised, but the impacts themselves remain understudied.<br><br>PURPOSE: In this article we applied psychological methods to examine if climate change is affecting individuals' mental health in the Small Island Developing State of Tuvalu, a Pacific Island nation regarded as exceptionally vulnerable to climate change. We determined the presence of psychological distress and associated impairment attributed to two categories of climate change-related stressors in particular: 1) local environmental impacts caused or exacerbated by climate change, and 2) hearing about global climate change and contemplating its future implications.<br><br>METHODS: The findings draw on data collected in a mixed-method study involving 100 Tuvaluan participants. Data were collected via face-to-face structured interviews that lasted 45&#x202f;min on average and were subjected to descriptive, correlational, and between-group analyses.<br><br>RESULTS: The findings revealed participants' experiences of distress in relation to both types of stressor, and demonstrated that a high proportion of participants are experiencing psychological distress at levels that reportedly cause them impairment in one or more areas of daily life.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The findings lend weight to the claim that climate change represents a risk to mental health and obliges decision-makers to consider these risks when conceptualizing climate-related harms or tallying the costs of inaction.}, }
@article {pmid32485455, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, P and Dong, X and Grenouillet, G and Lek, S and Zheng, Y and Chang, J}, title = {Species range shifts in response to climate change and human pressure for the world's largest amphibian.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {735}, number = {}, pages = {139543}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139543}, pmid = {32485455}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Amphibians ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Humans ; Urodela ; }, abstract = {The Chinese giant salamander, Andrias davidianus, the world's largest amphibian, is critically endangered and has an extremely unique evolutionary history. Therefore, this species represents a global conservation priority and will be impacted by future climate and human pressures. Understanding the range and response to environmental change of this species is a priority for the identification of targeted conservation activities. We projected future range shifts of the Chinese giant salamander under the independent and combined impacts of climate change and human population density (HPD) variations by using ensemble species distribution models. We further evaluated the sustainability of existing nature reserves and identified priority areas for the mitigation or prevention of such pressures. Both climate change and increasing HPD tended to reduce the species range, with the latter leading to greater range losses and fragmentation of the range. Notably, 65.6%, 18.0% and 18.4% of the range loss were attributed solely to HPD change, solely to climate change and to their overlapping impacts, respectively. Overall, the average total and net losses of the species range were 52.5% and 23.4%, respectively, and HPD and climate changes were responsible for 71.4% and 28.6% of the net losses, respectively. We investigated the stability of the remaining species range and found that half of the nature reserves are likely vulnerable, with 57.1% and 66.7% of them likely to lose their conservation value in 2050 and 2070, respectively. To effectively protect this salamander, conservation policies should address both pressures simultaneously, especially considering the negative impact of human pressures in both contemporary periods and the near future. The species range shifts over space and time projected by this research could help guide long-term surveys and the sustainable conservation of wild habitats and populations of this ancient and endangered amphibian.}, }
@article {pmid32485454, year = {2020}, author = {Nascimbene, J and Benesperi, R and Casazza, G and Chiarucci, A and Giordani, P}, title = {Range shifts of native and invasive trees exacerbate the impact of climate change on epiphyte distribution: The case of lung lichen and black locust in Italy.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {735}, number = {}, pages = {139537}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139537}, pmid = {32485454}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Italy ; *Lichens ; *Robinia ; Trees ; }, abstract = {While changing climatic conditions may directly impact species distribution ranges, indirect effects related to altered biotic interactions may exacerbate range shifts. This situation fully applies to epiphytic lichens that are sensitive to climatic factors and strongly depend on substrate occurrence and features for their dispersal and establishment. In this work, we modelled the climatic suitability across Italy under current and future climate of the forest species Lobaria pulmonaria, the lung lichen. Comparatively, we modelled the suitability of its main tree species in Italy, as well as that of the alien tree Robinia pseudoacacia, black locust, whose spread may cause the decline of many forest lichen species. Our results support the view that climate change may cause range shifts of epiphytes by altering the spatial pattern of their climatic suitability (direct effect) and simultaneously causing range shifts of their host-tree species (indirect effect). This phenomenon seems to be emphasized by the invasion of alien trees, as in the case of black locust, that may replace native host tree species. Results indicate that a reduction of the habitat suitability of the lung lichen across Italy should be expected in the face of climate change and that this is coupled with a loss of suitable substrate. This situation seems to be determined by two main processes that act simultaneously: 1) a partial reduction of the spatial overlap between the climatic niche of the lung lichen and that of its host tree species, and 2) the invasion of native woods by black locust. The case of lung lichen and black locust in Italy highlights that epiphytes are prone to both direct and indirect effects of climate change. The invasion of alien trees may have consequences that are still poorly evaluated for epiphytes.}, }
@article {pmid32485369, year = {2020}, author = {Rocha, J and Carvalho-Santos, C and Diogo, P and Beça, P and Keizer, JJ and Nunes, JP}, title = {Impacts of climate change on reservoir water availability, quality and irrigation needs in a water scarce Mediterranean region (southern Portugal).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {736}, number = {}, pages = {139477}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139477}, pmid = {32485369}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Future climate for the Mediterranean climatic region is expected to bring an increase in temperatures, decrease in the precipitation quantity and shifts in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Although the impacts of climate change on water resources have been relatively well explored for the Mediterranean climatic region, the specific consequences for reservoirs and, in particular, water availability and irrigation issues have been less studied. The objective of this work is two-fold: (i) to assess the impacts of future climate changes on water resources availability, quality (focusing on phosphorus loads as this is the limiting nutrient for eutrophication) and irrigation needs for two multipurpose reservoirs in southern Portugal; (ii) to suggest climate change adaptation strategies, especially for the agricultural sector. To this end, the SWAT model was first calibrated against existing data on reservoir inflows as well as phosphorus loads. Then, SWAT was run with climate derived EURO-CORDEX models (RCA4/RACMO22E) for four periods (1970-2000, 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100). Water availability was analysed using the Water Exploitation Index (WEI) that was calculated for both reservoirs combining changes of inflows and irrigation requirements. The results indicated that climate change will negatively impact water availability in both reservoirs, especially under RCP8.5. In the case of the Monte Novo reservoir, future domestic water supply could be constrained by water quality problems related with phosphorus loads. For Vigia reservoir, the high water exploitation will lead to water scarcity problems, mainly as this reservoir on present-day conditions is restrictive on irrigation requirements. Adaptation strategies such as the implementation of high end technology (e.g. soil moisture and plant water stress probes, satellite imagery and drones to evaluate water stress - NDVI) as well as the renewal of the irrigation network and adequate crop selection can help attenuating the effects of climate change on the water resources in this region.}, }
@article {pmid32483816, year = {2020}, author = {Paltseva, AA and Neaman, A}, title = {An Emerging Frontier: Metal(loid) Soil Pollution Threat Under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {39}, number = {9}, pages = {1653-1654}, doi = {10.1002/etc.4790}, pmid = {32483816}, issn = {1552-8618}, support = {"5-100" project//RUDN University/International ; 19-77-30012//Russian Science Foundation/International ; }, }
@article {pmid32483233, year = {2020}, author = {Johansson, F and Orizaola, G and Nilsson-Örtman, V}, title = {Temperate insects with narrow seasonal activity periods can be as vulnerable to climate change as tropical insect species.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {8822}, pmid = {32483233}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Insecta/*physiology ; *Seasons ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The magnitude and ecological impact of climate change varies with latitude. Several recent models have shown that tropical ectotherms face the greatest risk from warming because they currently experience temperatures much closer to their physiological optimum than temperate taxa. Even a small increase in temperature may thus result in steep fitness declines in tropical species but increased fitness in temperate species. This prediction, however, is based on a model that does not account for latitudinal differences in activity periods. Temperate species in particular may often experience considerably higher temperatures than expected during the active season. Here, we integrate data on insect warming tolerance and temperature-dependent development to re-evaluate latitudinal trends in thermal safety margins after accounting for latitudinal trends in insect seasonal activity. Our analyses suggest that temperate and tropical species differ far less in thermal safety margins than commonly assumed, and add to the recent number of studies suggesting that tropical and temperate species might face similar levels of threat from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32481503, year = {2020}, author = {Timmusk, S and Nevo, E and Ayele, F and Noe, S and Niinemets, Y}, title = {Fighting Fusarium Pathogens in the Era of Climate Change: A Conceptual Approach.}, journal = {Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {32481503}, issn = {2076-0817}, support = {2017-5224//Vetenskapsr&#xe5;det/ ; }, abstract = {Fusarium head blight (FHB) caused by Fusarium pathogens is one of the most devastating fungal diseases of small grain cereals worldwide, substantially reducing yield quality and food safety. Its severity is increasing due to the climate change caused by weather fluctuations. Intensive research on FHB control methods has been initiated more than a decade ago. Since then, the environment has been rapidly changing at regional to global scales due to increasing anthropogenic emissions enhanced fertilizer application and substantial changes in land use. It is known that environmental factors affect both the pathogen virulence as well as plant resistance mechanisms. Changes in CO2 concentration, temperature, and water availability can have positive, neutral, or negative effects on pathogen spread depending on the environmental optima of the pathosystem. Hence, there is a need for studies of plant-pathogen interactions in current and future environmental context. Long-term monitoring data are needed in order to understand the complex nature of plants and its microbiome interactions. We suggest an holobiotic approach, integrating plant phyllosphere microbiome research on the ecological background. This will enable the development of efficient strategies based on ecological know-how to fight Fusarium pathogens and maintain sustainable agricultural systems.}, }
@article {pmid32481213, year = {2020}, author = {Arunrat, N and Pumijumnong, N and Sereenonchai, S and Chareonwong, U and Wang, C}, title = {Assessment of climate change impact on rice yield and water footprint of large-scale and individual farming in Thailand.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {726}, number = {}, pages = {137864}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137864}, pmid = {32481213}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Farms ; *Oryza ; Thailand ; Water ; }, abstract = {Large-scale farming (participation in large-scale agricultural extension program) and individual farming (no participation) are two farming management practices of rice cultivation in Thailand, both of which cause significant water consumption and degradation and are vulnerable to climate change. However, given that climate change will influence both grain yield and water resource availability, it is not fully understood which type of farming management practice is more adaptive to climate change. This study aims to evaluate the adaptation capabilities of large-scale and individual farming by simulating rice yield changes under future climatic conditions and estimating the climate change impact on the water footprint (WF) of rice production. Rice management practices were obtained from large-scale and individual farming. Five General Circulation Models of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios under four future time periods were used as future climate projections. Simulation results show a remarkable increase in rice yield of individual and large-scale farming under RCP4.5, ranging from 1.3 to 29.8% and 2.0 to 30.8%, respectively, whereas it fluctuates from 11.7 to -29.0% and 8.3 to -20.8% under RCP8.5 for individual and large-scale farming, respectively. The projected total WF of rice production under RCP4.5 will decline, ranging from -10.0 to -43.0% and -0.5 to -67.0% for individual and large-scale farming, respectively. Conversely, the RCP8.5 shows a fluctuation in projected total WF of -26.5 to 63.3% and -51.1 to 60.0% for individual and large-scale farming, respectively. The total WF, mainly grey WF, in large-scale farming is lower than in individual farming. The increase of rice yield under RCP4.5 is due to an increment of temperature and precipitation, resulting in a decrease of the total WF and vice versa for RCP8.5. The large-scale farms are highlighted as adopting appropriate management practices for rice production in which they can maintain rice yield and reduce grey WF.}, }
@article {pmid32479675, year = {2020}, author = {Astigarraga, J and Andivia, E and Zavala, MA and Gazol, A and Cruz-Alonso, V and Vicente-Serrano, SM and Ruiz-Benito, P}, title = {Evidence of non-stationary relationships between climate and forest responses: Increased sensitivity to climate change in Iberian forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {9}, pages = {5063-5076}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15198}, pmid = {32479675}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//FPI fellowship of the Department of Education of the Basque Government/ ; RTI2018-096884-B-C32//Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci&#xf3;n y Universidades/ ; //Fundaci&#xf3;n BBVA/ ; TE-CM S2018/EMT-4338//REMEDINAL4 (Madrid Government, Spain)/ ; S-2013/MAE2719//REMEDINAL3 (Madrid Government, Spain)/ ; //Complutense University of Madrid/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Trees ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate and forest structure are considered major drivers of forest demography and productivity. However, recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and tree growth are generally non-stationary (i.e. non-time stable), and it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate, forest structure, demography and productivity are stationary or are being altered by recent climatic and structural changes. Here we analysed three surveys from the Spanish Forest Inventory covering c. 30 years of information and we applied mixed and structural equation models to assess temporal trends in forest structure (stand density, basal area, tree size and tree size inequality), forest demography (ingrowth, growth and mortality) and above-ground forest productivity. We also quantified whether the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography and above-ground forest productivity were stationary over two consecutive time periods. Since the 1980s, density, basal area and tree size increased in Iberian forests, and tree size inequality decreased. In addition, we observed reductions in ingrowth and growth, and increases in mortality. Initial forest structure and water availability mainly modulated the temporal trends in forest structure and demography. The magnitude and direction of the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography changed over the two time periods analysed indicating non-stationary relationships between climate, forest structure and demography. Above-ground forest productivity increased due to a positive balance between ingrowth, growth and mortality. Despite increasing productivity over time, we observed an aggravation of the negative effects of climate change and increased competition on forest demography, reducing ingrowth and growth, and increasing mortality. Interestingly, our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on forest demography could be ameliorated through forest management, which has profound implications for forest adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32477890, year = {2020}, author = {Ros, AV and LaRocque, R and Fortinsky, R and Nicholas, P}, title = {Addressing Climate Change Communication: Effective Engagement of Populations for Climate Action in the US and Globally.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {86}, number = {1}, pages = {54}, pmid = {32477890}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communication ; *Community Participation ; *Environmental Health ; Global Health ; *Health Education ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Stakeholder Participation ; United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Communication about climate change is critical in addressing the greatest public health challenge of our time. Public health professionals must convey the human implications of climate change and educating populations regarding climate change as a threat to the health and wellbeing of people globally. Effective communication to engage individuals, communities, and populations is critical to debate as we focus on the most urgent public health problem of our time.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: Public health professionals are aware of the deleterious health consequences related to climate change; however, key segments of the population are not. This paper addressed key concepts related to climate change communication.<br><br>METHODS: Databases were searched including PubMed, CINAHL, and Scopus from 2015 to 2020 to obtain the most recent relevant literature using search terms that included climate change, climate communication, climate action, and climate change engagement.<br><br>FINDINGS: Climate change communication as viewed through the lens of Six Americas-a national survey that categorized people regarding their beliefs about climate change from those who are Dismissive, Doubtful, Disengaged, Cautious, Concerned, or Alarmed is a valid perspective for engaging populations in climate communication and climate action.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Using the framework developed by the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication and the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, we suggest that adopting this framework from a US perspective to a global perspective and surveying across countries and context is imperative to advance global understanding of the impact of climate change on health.}, }
@article {pmid32477395, year = {2020}, author = {Frioni, T and Bertoloni, G and Squeri, C and Garavani, A and Ronney, L and Poni, S and Gatti, M}, title = {Biodiversity of Local Vitis vinifera L. Germplasm: A Powerful Tool Toward Adaptation to Global Warming and Desired Grape Composition.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {608}, pmid = {32477395}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Global warming is endangering maintenance of optimal grape composition in white varietals aimed at sparkling wine making due to difficulties to maintain adequate acidity and fresh aromas. These troubles are being faced by the main white varietal of the Colli Piacentini district, named Ortrugo. Its vegetative and reproductive behavior was compared over 3 years with that of other minor autochthonous white varietals. Criteria set for adequate grape composition under sparkling vinification (total soluble solids at 20-21°Brix) and titratable acidity (TA) ≥ 6.5 g/L combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the measured variables allowed a thinnning down of the initial group of 17 to 7 varietals including Ortrugo, Bucalò, Barbesino, Lecco, Melara, Santa Maria and Molinelli. PCA isolated Ortrugo's behavior for inadequacy to maintain sufficient TA at harvest mostly due to extremely low malic acid concentration. However, time trend analyses of accumulation and degradation patterns of tartaric and malic acids disclosed that, in Ortrugo, the most limiting factors were more intense post-veraison tartaric acid dilution and a lower malic acid pool at veraison as compared to any other varietal. Conversely, Molinelli and Barbesino proved to be ideal material for sparkling wine purposes, as they associated to desirable agronomic features a strong ability to retain high TA with a well-balanced tartrate-to-malate ratio. Our study emphasizes that often neglected or superficially evaluated germplasm genetic resources might hide strong potential for adapting to challenges imposed by climate change in that representing an excellent tool for adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32477275, year = {2020}, author = {Garcia, MO and Templer, PH and Sorensen, PO and Sanders-DeMott, R and Groffman, PM and Bhatnagar, JM}, title = {Soil Microbes Trade-Off Biogeochemical Cycling for Stress Tolerance Traits in Response to Year-Round Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {616}, pmid = {32477275}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Winter air temperatures are rising faster than summer air temperatures in high-latitude forests, increasing the frequency of soil freeze/thaw events in winter. To determine how climate warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles affect soil microbial communities and the ecosystem processes they drive, we leveraged the Climate Change across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the northeastern United States, where replicate field plots receive one of three climate treatments: warming (+5°C above ambient in the growing season), warming in the growing season + winter freeze/thaw cycles (+5°C above ambient +4 freeze/thaw cycles during winter), and no treatment. Soil samples were taken from plots at six time points throughout the growing season and subjected to amplicon (rDNA) and metagenome sequencing. We found that soil fungal and bacterial community composition were affected by changes in soil temperature, where the taxonomic composition of microbial communities shifted more with the combination of growing-season warming and increased frequency of soil freeze/thaw cycles in winter than with warming alone. Warming increased the relative abundance of brown rot fungi and plant pathogens but decreased that of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, all of which recovered under combined growing-season warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles in winter. The abundance of animal parasites increased significantly under combined warming and freeze/thaw cycles. We also found that warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles suppressed bacterial taxa with the genetic potential for carbon (i.e., cellulose) decomposition and soil nitrogen cycling, such as N fixation and the final steps of denitrification. These new soil communities had higher genetic capacity for stress tolerance and lower genetic capacity to grow or reproduce, relative to the communities exposed to warming in the growing season alone. Our observations suggest that initial suppression of biogeochemical cycling with year-round climate change may be linked to the emergence of taxa that trade-off growth for stress tolerance traits.}, }
@article {pmid32474785, year = {2020}, author = {Ahmad, D and Afzal, M}, title = {Climate change adaptation impact on cash crop productivity and income in Punjab province of Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {24}, pages = {30767-30777}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09368-x}, pmid = {32474785}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Farms ; Humans ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {Assessing the current farm-level efforts of climate change adaptation is essential to distinguish their usefulness and implying policy level advance measures for future. The present study investigated cotton farmers' climate change adaptation and its impact on increasing cotton productivity and net cotton income in Punjab province of Pakistan. A pretested and well-structured questionnaire was used for data collection of 480 cotton farmers from three major cotton-producing divisions of cotton-wheat zone of Punjab, Pakistan. Logistic regression analysis approach was used in this study to find out the factors of adaptation and propensity score matching method employed to identify connecting adaptation impact on cotton productivity and cotton income. Empirical estimates of this study indicated as owing to some external and internal constraint farmers were limited focused on adaptation while conscious about adverse effects of climate change. Usage of required and recommended types of fertilizer, variation in planting dates, and changing varieties of crop were main adaptation strategies implemented by cotton farmers. Cotton farmers' adaptation decision was significantly influenced by some major factors as weather forecasting, market information, easy access to agricultural extension services, farming experience, and education of cotton farmer. Farm-level increase in cotton productivity and net cotton crop income was direct while overall increases in national output and improving rural area farmer well-being were indirect and significant outcomes of implementing climate change adaptation of cotton farmers. Cotton farmers were using various combinations of adaptation strategies and achieving more benefits regarding their crop productivity and net returns. Findings of the study suggest need for larger investment in farm-level extension services, farmers' schooling, and develop climate change institutional setup for enhancing farmers' adaptation capability to increasing cotton productivity, improving well-being of farming community, and securing agriculture from future climatic uncertainties. Future policies must deal with farm-level limitations of advanced adaptation measures like making available information and sustaining sponsoring soil conservation practices, launching climate smart varieties and advanced adaptation measures based on various agro-ecological zones.}, }
@article {pmid32474308, year = {2020}, author = {Yang, L and Liu, C and Bi, P and Vardoulakis, S and Huang, C}, title = {Local actions to health risks of heatwaves and dengue fever under climate change: Strategies and barriers among primary healthcare professionals in southern China.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {187}, number = {}, pages = {109688}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109688}, pmid = {32474308}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Dengue/epidemiology ; Humans ; Primary Health Care ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and extreme weather poses significant threats to community health, which need to be addressed by local health workforce. This study investigated the perceptions of primary healthcare professionals in Southern China on individual and institutional strategies for actions on health impacts of climate change and the related barriers.<br><br>METHODS: A mixed methodological approach was adopted, involving a cross-sectional questionnaire survey of 733 primary healthcare professionals (including medical doctors, nurses, public health practitioners, allied health workers and managers) selected through a multistage cluster randomized sampling strategy, and in-depth interviews of 25 key informants in Guangdong Province, China. The questionnaire survey investigated the perceptions of respondents on the health impacts of climate change and the individual and institutional actions that need to be taken in response to climate change. Multivariate logistic regression models were established to determine sociodemographic factors associated with the perceptions. The interviews tapped into coping strategies and perceived barriers in primary health care to adapt to tackle challenges of climate change. Contents analyses were performed to extract important themes.<br><br>RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The majority (64%) of respondents agreed that climate change is happening, but only 53.6% believed in its human causes. Heat waves and infectious diseases were highly recognized as health problems associated with climate change. There was a strong consensus on the need to strengthen individual and institutional capacities in response to health impacts of climate change. The respondents believed that it is important to educate the public, take active efforts to control infectious vectors, and pay increased attention to the health care of vulnerable populations. The lack of funding and limited local workforce capacity is a major barrier for taking actions. Climate change should be integrated into primary health care development through sustainable governmental funding and resource support.}, }
@article {pmid32468376, year = {2020}, author = {Ahmad, M and Raza, MY}, title = {Role of public-private partnerships investment in energy and technological innovations in driving climate change: evidence from Brazil.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {24}, pages = {30638-30648}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09307-w}, pmid = {32468376}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Brazil ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Economic Development ; *Inventions ; Investments ; Public-Private Sector Partnerships ; }, abstract = {This study aims to examine the impact of public-private partnerships (PPP) investment in energy, technological innovations (TI), economic growth (EG), exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on CO2 emissions in Brazil over the period from 1984 to 2018. In doing so, we employ the Ng-Perron unit root test to examine the stationarity and autoregressive lag distributed (ARDL) model for cointegration between CO2 emissions and its determinants. The outcomes are as follows: first, in the long run, the PPP investment in energy deteriorates the environmental quality by increasing CO2 emissions, while TI has a significant negative effect on CO2 emissions. It is also found that the exports and FDI degrade the environmental quality and the relationship between EG and CO2 emissions is inverted U-Shaped, presence of the EKC hypothesis. Second, in the short run, PPP investment in the energy sector is negatively influencing, while TI has a positive association with carbon emissions. The empirical findings provide new insights for policymakers to regulate PPP investment in the energy sector for the improvement of environmental quality in Brazil. Graphical abstract.}, }
@article {pmid32468367, year = {2020}, author = {Shehzad, K and Xiaoxing, L and Sarfraz, M and Zulfiqar, M}, title = {Signifying the imperative nexus between climate change and information and communication technology development: a case from Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {24}, pages = {30502-30517}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09128-x}, pmid = {32468367}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {71673043//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Economic Development ; Investments ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {The globe has faced technological affluence that enormously revolutionized the lives of humankind. Today, the manufacturing process of the energy sector, production sector, agriculture sector, and service sector is exclusively or partially based on ICT tools. The key intention of this investigation is to find out the impacts of the utilization of ICT on CO2 emission. However, this investigation also evaluates the influence of investment in ICT and the trade of ICT tools on CO2 emission. Further, the estimation examined the subsistence of environment Kuznets curve (EKC) theory, for the nation of Pakistan. The investigation employed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and found that the utilization of ICT has a negative impact on CO2 emission. Moreover, the long-run results revealed that the import of ICT equipment is more beneficial for the environment quality of Pakistan. However, ICT apparatus manufactured in Pakistan might produce electronic waste due to non-utilization of green technology. The study reported bidirectional causality between ICT and CO2 emission. These results point towards that the emergence of ICT in industries and daily life possesses a significant and positive role in climate change in Pakistan. Also, this study corroborates the veracity of EKC in Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid32466335, year = {2020}, author = {Blechschmidt, J and Wittmann, MJ and Blüml, C}, title = {Climate Change and Green Sea Turtle Sex Ratio-Preventing Possible Extinction.}, journal = {Genes}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {32466335}, issn = {2073-4425}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Sex Determination Processes/*genetics/physiology ; Sex Ratio ; Temperature ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a threat to species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). A recent study on green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) at the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) showed a highly female-skewed sex ratio with almost all juvenile turtles being female. This shortage of males might eventually cause population extinction, unless rapid evolutionary rescue, migration, range shifts, or conservation efforts ensure a sufficient number of males. We built a stochastic individual-based model inspired by C. mydas but potentially transferrable to other species with TSD. Pivotal temperature, nest depth, and shading were evolvable traits. Additionally, we considered the effect of crossbreeding between northern and southern GBR, nest site philopatry, and conservation efforts. Among the evolvable traits, nest depth was the most likely to rescue the population, but even here the warmer climate change scenarios led to extinction. We expected turtles to choose colder beaches under rising temperatures, but surprisingly, nest site philopatry did not improve persistence. Conservation efforts promoted population survival and did not preclude trait evolution. Although extra information is needed to make reliable predictions for the fate of green sea turtles, our results illustrate how evolution can shape the fate of long lived, vulnerable species in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32464708, year = {2020}, author = {Boulton, CA and Ritchie, PDL and Lenton, TM}, title = {Abrupt changes in Great Britain vegetation carbon projected under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {8}, pages = {4436-4448}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15144}, pmid = {32464708}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NE/P007880/1//Natural Environment Research Council/International ; RPG-2018-046//Leverhulme Trust/International ; }, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Past abrupt 'regime shifts' have been observed in a range of ecosystems due to various forcing factors. Large-scale abrupt shifts are projected for some terrestrial ecosystems under climate change, particularly in tropical and high-latitude regions. However, there is very little high-resolution modelling of smaller-scale future projected abrupt shifts in ecosystems, and relatively less focus on the potential for abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that numerous climate-driven abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon are projected in a high-resolution model of Great Britain's land surface driven by two different climate change scenarios. In each scenario, the effects of climate and CO2 combined are isolated from the effects of climate change alone. We use a new algorithm to detect and classify abrupt shifts in model time series, assessing the sign and strength of the non-linear responses. The abrupt ecosystem changes projected are non-linear responses to climate change, not simply driven by abrupt shifts in climate. Depending on the scenario, 374-1,144 grid cells of 1.5 km × 1.5 km each, comprising 0.5%-1.5% of Great Britain's land area show abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon. We find that abrupt ecosystem shifts associated with increases (rather than decreases) in vegetation carbon, show the greatest potential for early warning signals (rising autocorrelation and variance beforehand). In one scenario, 89% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon show increasing autocorrelation and variance beforehand. Across the scenarios, 81% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon have increasing autocorrelation and 74% increasing variance beforehand, whereas for decreases in vegetation carbon these figures are 56% and 47% respectively. Our results should not be taken as specific spatial or temporal predictions of abrupt ecosystem change. However, they serve to illustrate that numerous abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems could occur in a changing climate, with some early warning signals detectable beforehand.}, }
@article {pmid32463845, year = {2020}, author = {Elston, DM}, title = {Climate change and expansion of tick geography.}, journal = {Cutis}, volume = {105}, number = {4}, pages = {161-162}, pmid = {32463845}, issn = {2326-6929}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; Humans ; *Ixodes ; }, }
@article {pmid32461355, year = {2020}, author = {Carey, J}, title = {Core Concept: Managed retreat increasingly seen as necessary in response to climate change's fury.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {24}, pages = {13182-13185}, pmid = {32461355}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid32458307, year = {2020}, author = {Sardá, LG and Higarashi, MM and Nicoloso, RS and Falkoski, C and Ribeiro, SMS and Silveira, CAP and Soares, HM}, title = {Effects of dicyandiamide and Mg/P on the global warming potential of swine slurry and sawdust cocomposting.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {24}, pages = {30405-30418}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09244-8}, pmid = {32458307}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {02.12.08.004//Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecu&#xe1;ria (BR)/Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o Parque Tecnol&#xf3;gico Itaip&#xfa; (BR)/ ; 401196/2016-0//Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Guanidines ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Soil ; Swine ; }, abstract = {Composting is an emerging strategy for swine slurry treatment; nonetheless, significant greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions may occur during this process. We carried out two separate assays with increasing doses of dicyandiamide (DCD; up to 1.1% w/w) as a nitrification inhibitor and solutions of MgCl2 and H3PO4 (Mg/P; up to 0.09/0.06 mol kg[-1]) to promote struvite crystallization in order to assess their efficiencies as additives to decrease GHG emission during swine slurry cocomposting with sawdust (1:1v/v). We monitored the nitrous oxide (N2O-N), methane (CH4-C), and carbon dioxide (CO2-C) emissions and the ammonia (NH4[+]-N) and nitrate/nitrite (NOx-N) concentrations in compost reactors (35 L) during the first 4-5 weeks of composting. DCD had no effect on CH4-C and CO2-C emissions but decreased N2O-N losses by up to 56% compared with control. However, DCD inactivation was favored by thermophilic conditions and N2O-N emissions increased to same levels of control after 13 days. Mg/P was effective to decrease N2O-N losses only at the highest dose, which also sustained higher [NH4[+]-N] in the compost by the end of the assessment. Nonetheless, the use of 0.09/0.06 mol kg[-1] of Mg/P also decreased CH4-C and CO2-C emissions compared with lower doses of Mg/P and unamended treatments. Overall, DCD and Mg/P amendments decreased the global warming potential (GWP) of swine slurry composting by up to 46 and 28%, respectively. The Mg/P application may be also interesting to increase the compost quality by increasing its NH4[+]-N availability. Graphical abstract.}, }
@article {pmid32457782, year = {2020}, author = {Calleja-Cabrera, J and Boter, M and Oñate-Sánchez, L and Pernas, M}, title = {Root Growth Adaptation to Climate Change in Crops.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {544}, pmid = {32457782}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change is threatening crop productivity worldwide and new solutions to adapt crops to these environmental changes are urgently needed. Elevated temperatures driven by climate change affect developmental and physiological plant processes that, ultimately, impact on crop yield and quality. Plant roots are responsible for water and nutrients uptake, but changes in soil temperatures alters this process limiting crop growth. With the predicted variable climatic forecast, the development of an efficient root system better adapted to changing soil and environmental conditions is crucial for enhancing crop productivity. Root traits associated with improved adaptation to rising temperatures are increasingly being analyzed to obtain more suitable crop varieties. In this review, we will summarize the current knowledge about the effect of increasing temperatures on root growth and their impact on crop yield. First, we will describe the main alterations in root architecture that different crops undergo in response to warmer soils. Then, we will outline the main coordinated physiological and metabolic changes taking place in roots and aerial parts that modulate the global response of the plant to increased temperatures. We will discuss on some of the main regulatory mechanisms controlling root adaptation to warmer soils, including the activation of heat and oxidative pathways to prevent damage of root cells and disruption of root growth; the interplay between hormonal regulatory pathways and the global changes on gene expression and protein homeostasis. We will also consider that in the field, increasing temperatures are usually associated with other abiotic and biotic stresses such as drought, salinity, nutrient deficiencies, and pathogen infections. We will present recent advances on how the root system is able to integrate and respond to complex and different stimuli in order to adapt to an increasingly changing environment. Finally, we will discuss the new prospects and challenges in this field as well as the more promising pathways for future research.}, }
@article {pmid32457557, year = {2020}, author = {García-Del-Amo, D and Mortyn, PG and Reyes-García, V}, title = {Including Indigenous and local knowledge in climate research. An assessment of the opinion of Spanish climate change researchers.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {160}, number = {1}, pages = {67-88}, pmid = {32457557}, issn = {0165-0009}, support = {771056/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Researchers have documented that observations of climate change impacts reported by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities coincide with scientific measurements of such impacts. However, insights from Indigenous and Local Knowledge are not yet completely included in international climate change research and policy fora. In this article, we compare observations of climate change impacts detected by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities from around the world and collected through a literature review (n=198 case studies), with climate scientists' opinions on the relevance of such information for climate change research. Scientists' opinions were collected through a web survey among climate change researchers from universities and research centres in Spain (n=191). In the survey, we asked about the need to collect local level data regarding 68 different groups of indicators of climate change impacts to improve the current knowledge, and about the feasibility of using Indigenous and local knowledge in climate change studies. Results show consensus on the need to continue collecting local level data from all groups of indicators to get a better understanding of climate change impacts, particularly on impacts on the biological system. However, while scientists of our study considered that Indigenous and local knowledge could mostly contribute to detect climate change impacts on the biological and socioeconomic systems, the literature review shows that information on impacts on these systems is rarely collected; researchers instead have mostly documented the impacts on the climatic and physical systems reported by Indigenous and local knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid32457461, year = {2020}, author = {Palmer, T}, title = {Short-term tests validate long-term estimates of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {582}, number = {7811}, pages = {185-186}, pmid = {32457461}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid32457414, year = {2020}, author = {Lembo, V and Lucarini, V and Ragone, F}, title = {Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {8668}, pmid = {32457414}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change. We perform our study using a fully coupled model - MPI-ESM v.1.2 - and for the first time we prove the effectiveness of response theory in predicting future climate response to CO2 increase on a vast range of temporal scales, from inter-annual to centennial, and for very diverse climatic variables. We investigate within a unified perspective the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity, and assess the role of fast and slow processes. The prediction of the ocean heat uptake highlights the very slow relaxation to a newly established steady state. The change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is accurately predicted. The AMOC strength is initially reduced and then undergoes a slow and partial recovery. The ACC strength initially increases due to changes in the wind stress, then undergoes a slowdown, followed by a recovery leading to a overshoot with respect to the initial value. Finally, we are able to predict accurately the temperature change in the North Atlantic.}, }
@article {pmid32457137, year = {2020}, author = {Rushing, CS and Royle, JA and Ziolkowski, DJ and Pardieck, KL}, title = {Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {23}, pages = {12897-12903}, pmid = {32457137}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Geography ; North America ; Population Dynamics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distribution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America throughout the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both colonization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trailing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate-wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important questions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be particularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreeding season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed.}, }
@article {pmid32454547, year = {2020}, author = {Treptow, TM}, title = {[Impact of Corona Crisis on European Climate Change Policy].}, journal = {Wirtschaftsdienst (Hamburg, Germany : 1949)}, volume = {100}, number = {5}, pages = {364-366}, doi = {10.1007/s10273-020-2656-9}, pmid = {32454547}, issn = {0043-6275}, abstract = {The actual Corona crisis has a negative impact on the economic situation of the affected economies. This has direct consequences for the EU-wide trading of greenhouse gas emission allowances, which is an important building block of European climate change policy. In contrast, although there is an expected short-term decrease in the volume of greenhouse gas emissions due to the emerging economic recession, we should also expect lower prices of emission allowances in the mid to long term, which will make current production technologies more attractive. One important goal of European climate change policy - changing existing manufacturing technologies to less greenhouse gas emitting alternatives - will become even more difficult.}, }
@article {pmid32451968, year = {2021}, author = {Ginbo, T and Di Corato, L and Hoffmann, R}, title = {Investing in climate change adaptation and mitigation: A methodological review of real-options studies.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {1}, pages = {229-241}, pmid = {32451968}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Research ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Uncertain future payoffs and irreversible costs characterize investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Under these conditions, it is relevant to analyze investment decisions in a real options framework, as this approach takes into account the economic value associated with investment time flexibility. In this paper, we provide an overview of the literature adopting a real option approach to analyze investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, and examine how the uncertain impacts of climate change on the condition of the human environment, risk preferences, and strategic interactions among decisions-makers have been modeled. We found that the complex nature of uncertainties associated with climate change is typically only partially taken into account and that the analysis is usually limited to decisions taken by individual risk neutral profit maximizers. Our findings call for further research to fill the identified gaps.}, }
@article {pmid32449267, year = {2020}, author = {Venäläinen, A and Lehtonen, I and Laapas, M and Ruosteenoja, K and Tikkanen, OP and Viiri, H and Ikonen, VP and Peltola, H}, title = {Climate change induces multiple risks to boreal forests and forestry in Finland: A literature review.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {8}, pages = {4178-4196}, pmid = {32449267}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {314224//Academy of Finland/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Finland ; *Forestry ; Forests ; Norway ; *Taiga ; }, abstract = {Climate change induces multiple abiotic and biotic risks to forests and forestry. Risks in different spatial and temporal scales must be considered to ensure preconditions for sustainable multifunctional management of forests for different ecosystem services. For this purpose, the present review article summarizes the most recent findings on major abiotic and biotic risks to boreal forests in Finland under the current and changing climate, with the focus on windstorms, heavy snow loading, drought and forest fires and major insect pests and pathogens of trees. In general, the forest growth is projected to increase mainly in northern Finland. In the south, the growing conditions may become suboptimal, particularly for Norway spruce. Although the wind climate does not change remarkably, wind damage risk will increase especially in the south, because of the shortening of the soil frost period. The risk of snow damage is anticipated to increase in the north and decrease in the south. Increasing drought in summer will boost the risk of large-scale forest fires. Also, the warmer climate increases the risk of bark beetle outbreaks and the wood decay by Heterobasidion root rot in coniferous forests. The probability of detrimental cascading events, such as those caused by a large-scale wind damage followed by a widespread bark beetle outbreak, will increase remarkably in the future. Therefore, the simultaneous consideration of the biotic and abiotic risks is essential.}, }
@article {pmid32447805, year = {2020}, author = {Patruno, C and Nisticò, SP and Fabbrocini, G and Napolitano, M}, title = {Is climate change the next pandemic for dermatology? Lessons from COVID-19.}, journal = {Dermatologic therapy}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {e13682}, pmid = {32447805}, issn = {1529-8019}, mesh = {Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Skin Diseases/*etiology ; Telemedicine ; }, }
@article {pmid32446069, year = {2020}, author = {López-Ballesteros, A and Senent-Aparicio, J and Martínez, C and Pérez-Sánchez, J}, title = {Assessment of future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in the Aracthos River basin (NW Greece).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {733}, number = {}, pages = {139299}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139299}, pmid = {32446069}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is a worldwide reality with significant effects on hydrological processes. It has already produce alterations in streamflow regime and is expected to continue in the future. To counteract the climate change impact, a better understanding of its effects is necessary. Hydrological models in combination with Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) suppose an up-to-date approach to analyze in detail the impacts of climate change on rivers. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration in Rivers (IAHRIS) software were successfully applied in Aracthos River basin, an agricultural watershed located in the north-western area of Greece. Statistical indices showed an acceptable performance of the SWAT model in both calibration (R[2] = 0.74, NSE = 0.54, PBIAS = 17.06%) and validation (R[2] = 0.64, NSE = 0.36, PBIAS = 12.31%) periods on a daily basis. To assess the future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in Aracthos River basin, five Global Climate Models (GFDL-ESM2, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) were selected and analyzed under two different emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for a long-term period (2070-2099). Results indicate that precipitation and flow is expected to be reduced and maximum and minimum temperature to be increased, compared to the historical period (1970-1999). IHA, obtained from IAHRIS software, revealed that flow regime can undergo a severe alteration, mainly on droughts that are expected to be more significant and longer. All these future hydrologic alterations could have negative consequences on the Aracthos River and its surroundings. The increase of droughts duration in combination with the reduction of flows and the alteration of seasonality can affect the resilience of riverine species and it can produce the loss of hydraulic and environmental diversity. Therefore, this study provides a useful tool for decision makers to develop strategies against the impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32445137, year = {2020}, author = {Abbas, S}, title = {Climate change and cotton production: an empirical investigation of Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {23}, pages = {29580-29588}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-09222-0}, pmid = {32445137}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Economic Development ; Pakistan ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This study investigates the relationship between climate change, the area under cultivation, fertilizer consumption, and cotton production in Pakistan from 1980 to 2018. The existence and nature of the short-term and long-term relationships are explored by using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model bounds testing approach. The estimated result of the ARDL bounds testing approach has shown the presence of cointegration between dependent and explanatory variables. The long-term estimates have revealed that the increasing average temperature has a positive insignificant effect, which implies that rising temperature is not increasing cotton yield in Pakistan. The findings of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption have revealed significant positive effects in both the long run and short run. This study urges Pakistan to reduce the pace of climate changes and increase water conservation by planting forests and constructing dams across major rivers along with the adoption of environmentally friendly production techniques and inputs.}, }
@article {pmid32444801, year = {2020}, author = {Theodoridis, S and Fordham, DA and Brown, SC and Li, S and Rahbek, C and Nogues-Bravo, D}, title = {Evolutionary history and past climate change shape the distribution of genetic diversity in terrestrial mammals.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2557}, pmid = {32444801}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Genetic Variation ; Mammals/classification/*genetics ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Knowledge of global patterns of biodiversity, ranging from intraspecific genetic diversity (GD) to taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity, is essential for identifying and conserving the processes that shape the distribution of life. Yet, global patterns of GD and its drivers remain elusive. Here we assess existing biodiversity theories to explain and predict the global distribution of GD in terrestrial mammal assemblages. We find a strong positive covariation between GD and interspecific diversity, with evolutionary time, reflected in phylogenetic diversity, being the best predictor of GD. Moreover, we reveal the negative effect of past rapid climate change and the positive effect of inter-annual precipitation variability in shaping GD. Our models, explaining almost half of the variation in GD globally, uncover the importance of deep evolutionary history and past climate stability in accumulating and maintaining intraspecific diversity, and constitute a crucial step towards reducing the Wallacean shortfall for an important dimension of biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid32444051, year = {2020}, author = {Kemper, KJ and Etzel, RA}, title = {Addressing climate change: Academic pediatricians' personal and professional actions.}, journal = {Complementary therapies in medicine}, volume = {50}, number = {}, pages = {102386}, doi = {10.1016/j.ctim.2020.102386}, pmid = {32444051}, issn = {1873-6963}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Diet/methods ; Female ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Male ; Pediatricians/*psychology ; Pilot Projects ; Recycling/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Transportation/methods ; }, }
@article {pmid32443221, year = {2020}, author = {McDonnell, TC and Reinds, GJ and Wamelink, GWW and Goedhart, PW and Posch, M and Sullivan, TJ and Clark, CM}, title = {Threshold effects of air pollution and climate change on understory plant communities at forested sites in the eastern United States.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {262}, number = {}, pages = {114351}, pmid = {32443221}, issn = {1873-6424}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Tennessee ; United States ; Virginia ; }, abstract = {Forest understory plant communities in the eastern United States are often diverse and are potentially sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric inputs of nitrogen caused by air pollution. In recent years, empirical and processed-based mathematical models have been developed to investigate such changes in plant communities. In the study reported here, a robust set of understory vegetation response functions (expressed as version 2 of the Probability of Occurrence of Plant Species model for the United States [US-PROPS v2]) was developed based on observations of forest understory and grassland plant species presence/absence and associated abiotic characteristics derived from spatial datasets. Improvements to the US-PROPS model, relative to version 1, were mostly focused on inclusion of additional input data, development of custom species-level input datasets, and implementation of methods to address uncertainty. We investigated the application of US-PROPS v2 to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, and climate change on forest ecosystems at three forested sites located in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee in the eastern United States. Species-level N and S critical loads (CLs) were determined under ambient deposition at all three modeled sites. The lowest species-level CLs of N deposition at each site were between 2 and 11 kg N/ha/yr. Similarly, the lowest CLs of S deposition, based on the predicted soil pH response, were less than 2 kg S/ha/yr among the three sites. Critical load exceedance was found at all three model sites. The New Hampshire site included the largest percentage of species in exceedance. Simulated warming air temperature typically resulted in lower maximum occurrence probability, which contributed to lower CLs of N and S deposition. The US-PROPS v2 model, together with the PROPS-CLF model to derive CL functions, can be used to develop site-specific CLs for understory plants within broad regions of the United States. This study demonstrates that species-level CLs of N and S deposition are spatially variable according to the climate, light availability, and soil characteristics at a given location. Although the species niche models generally performed well in predicting occurrence probability, there remains uncertainty with respect to the accuracy of reported CLs. As such, the specific CLs reported here should be considered as preliminary estimates.}, }
@article {pmid32442491, year = {2020}, author = {Armitage, R and Nellums, LB}, title = {Water, climate change, and COVID-19: prioritising those in water-stressed settings.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {e175}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30084-X}, pmid = {32442491}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Betacoronavirus/*isolation &amp; purification ; COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control/virology ; Hand Disinfection ; Humans ; Pandemics/*prevention &amp; control ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control/virology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid32442490, year = {2020}, author = {Herrero, M and Thornton, P}, title = {What can COVID-19 teach us about responding to climate change?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {e174}, pmid = {32442490}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Climate Change/*economics ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics ; Coronavirus Infections/*economics/epidemiology ; Financing, Government/*economics ; Pandemics/*economics ; Pneumonia, Viral/*economics/epidemiology ; Relief Work/economics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Sustainable Growth ; }, }
@article {pmid32442176, year = {2020}, author = {Mausio, K and Miura, T and Lincoln, NK}, title = {Cultivation potential projections of breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis) under climate change scenarios using an empirically validated suitability model calibrated in Hawai'i.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e0228552}, pmid = {32442176}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Artocarpus/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Ecosystem ; Food Supply ; Hawaii ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Humanity faces significant challenges to agriculture and human nutrition, and changes in climate are predicted to make such challenges greater in the future. Neglected and underutilized crops may play a role in mitigating and addressing such challenges. Breadfruit is a long-lived tree crop that is a nutritious, carbohydrate-rich staple, which is a priority crop in this regard. A fuzzy-set modeling approach was applied, refined, and validated for breadfruit to determine its current and future potential productivity. Hawai'i was used as a model system, with over 1,200 naturalized trees utilized to calibrate a habitat suitability model and 56 producer sites used to validate the model. The parameters were then applied globally on 17 global climate models at the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 global climate projections for 2070. Overall, breadfruit suitability increases in area and in quality, with larger increases occurring in the RCP 8.5 projection. Current producing regions largely remain unchanged in both projections, indicating relative stability of production potential in current growing regions. Breadfruit, and other tropical indigenous food crops present strong opportunities for cultivation and food security risk management strategies moving forward.}, }
@article {pmid32438186, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, H and Huang, B and Yang, C}, title = {Assessing the coordination between economic growth and urban climate change in China from 2000 to 2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {732}, number = {}, pages = {139283}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139283}, pmid = {32438186}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The balance between economic growth and environmental protection has been a critical concern for sustainable urban development. However, among the multiple research efforts exploring the coordination between the two aspects, the widespread urban climate change has rarely been considered. This study encompasses urban climate change into the cross-system coupling analysis framework to assess its coordination with economic growth using the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model. The two aspects are respectively represented using indicators of Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Specifically, China is selected as case study, and a total of 259 cities from the 2000-2015 period are analyzed. The spatio-temporal patterns of CCD are investigated through time series clustering to uncover its performance under diversified economic and climatic contexts. The regional inequality and spatial agglomeration effects are also examined. Results reveal significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity of CCD. Geographically, CCD varies from uncoordinated to high-level coordination. Wealthier cities in the eastern coastal region are significantly better coordinated than their inland counterparts. Temporally, the uptrend of CCD is not significant for most cities due to the relatively insufficient emphasis on urban heat island (UHI) mitigation in previous efforts. Evident spatial inequality and agglomeration patterns are also observed with slight downtrends. The spatio-temporal patterns of CCD revealed in this study indicate great necessity for the central government to develop policies suiting cities' special characteristics and contexts, and more efforts should be targeted on reducing regional imbalance. Hence, a nation-city-community policy skeleton is last outlined to enhance the pursuit of a more climate-friendly urban environment under rapid economic development. Overall, this study advances the understanding of economy-urban climate interactions and facilitates the future pursuit of better sustainable cities. The proposed workflow can be utilized for other countries with diversified urbanization processes and potentially used for comparison among different countries.}, }
@article {pmid32435692, year = {2020}, author = {Jin, S}, title = {COVID-19, Climate Change, and Renewable Energy Research: We Are All in This Together, and the Time to Act Is Now.}, journal = {ACS energy letters}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {1709-1711}, doi = {10.1021/acsenergylett.0c00910}, pmid = {32435692}, issn = {2380-8195}, }
@article {pmid32435603, year = {2020}, author = {Sarkar, S and Maity, R}, title = {Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation in the context of climate change.}, journal = {MethodsX}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {100904}, pmid = {32435603}, issn = {2215-0161}, abstract = {Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the maximum depth of precipitation at a location for a given duration that is meteorologically possible. It is a crucial information for any water infrastructure, such as dams, culverts, drainage network in order to ensure a desirable probability of exceedance. This paper proposes a technique for estimation of PMP, suitable in the context of climate change. Out of several available methods, Hershfield method is considered as a convenient and effective statistical method of PMP estimation, provided sufficiently long precipitation records are available. The most crucial step in Hershfield method is the precise estimation of frequency factor (K) and its enveloping technique. There is no universally accepted enveloping technique of K. Different values of K and different types of enveloping techniques have been suggested and used by various investigators across the world. We introduce an upgradation in the existing enveloping technique in order to bring clarity and universality in the estimation, particularly in the context of climate change. This updated enveloping technique and the conventional Hershfield method-both are applied to develop PMP maps for the entire Indian mainland over the past century (1901-2000). Comparison between the proposed and existing methods of PMP estimation reveals a better estimation of spatio-temporal variation of PMP, avoiding unusual overestimation of PMP in the low rainfall extreme regions of India by existing Hershfield method. In brief, the contributions of this paper are as follows:•An upgradation of the existing Hershfield Method [1] by introducing a new enveloping technique for the frequency factor (K).•The single envelope curve in the existing Hershfield method is modified as a composite curve, consisting of a straight-line portion and an exponentially decaying portion.•Development of PMP maps over India using both Hershfield method and the proposed technique.}, }
@article {pmid32435111, year = {2020}, author = {Vellingiri, S and Dutta, P and Singh, S and Sathish, LM and Pingle, S and Brahmbhatt, B}, title = {Combating Climate Change-induced Heat Stress: Assessing Cool Roofs and Its Impact on the Indoor Ambient Temperature of the Households in the Urban Slums of Ahmedabad.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {25-29}, pmid = {32435111}, issn = {0973-2284}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The rising global temperature and frequent heatwaves are the adverse effects of climate change. The causalities and ill impacts of the heat stress were higher among the slum dwellers because of the vulnerable household structures, which were made by heat-trapping materials like tin sheets, cement sheet (asbestos), plastic, and tarpaulin. The houses are not only dwellings but also a source of livelihood for many slum dwellers as they are involved in home-based work. The increase in the temperature of more than 40°C severely affects health and increases energy expenditures.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The present study conducted to identify the efficient cool roof technologies that reduce indoor temperature of the households and improve the heat resilience of dwellings located in the urban slums of Ahmedabad.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: The performances of cool roof interventions were compared with the nonintervention - roof types, namely, tin, asbestos/cement sheet, and concrete. Relative humidity/temperature data loggers (Lascar EL-USB-2-LCD, Sweden) were used to measure the indoor ambient temperature and humidity. The questionnaire-based survey also has been conducted to understand the socioeconomic status and the perceptions related to roofing and health.<br><br>RESULTS: The results revealed that selected cool roof technologies including Thermocol insulation, solar reflective white paint on the outer surface of the roof, and Modroof are effectively reducing the indoor temperature as compared to the nonintervention roofing.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Cool roof technologies have a wider scope as number of informal settlements are increasing across the cities in India and other developing countries. The governments may not able to provide proper housing to all these inhabitants due to various reasons including the land tenure of the habitats. Validated cool roof technologies can be promoted as these structures are not requires legal sanctions and easily dismantled and installed in multiple places and safeguards the investment of urban poor.}, }
@article {pmid32433979, year = {2020}, author = {Skole, K and Mahpour, N}, title = {Additional Thoughts on "How Can Individuals and the GI Community Reduce Climate Change".}, journal = {Gastroenterology}, volume = {159}, number = {2}, pages = {798-799}, doi = {10.1053/j.gastro.2020.02.069}, pmid = {32433979}, issn = {1528-0012}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32432423, year = {2020}, author = {Delorme, H and Gonzalez Holguera, J and Niwa, N and Backes, C and Senn, N}, title = {[Co-benefits of health promotion on global warming - The example of food and mobility].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {16}, number = {694}, pages = {1049-1055}, pmid = {32432423}, issn = {1660-9379}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Diet/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Exercise ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Health Promotion/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Public Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Global warming is considered by most scientists as one of the greatest public health threats of the 21st century. Some individual behaviours and consumption habits related to the food and mobility sectors are responsible for a high amount of CO2 emissions, the main greenhouse gas. Thus, some messages promoted by health professionals will have an impact on the fight against the epidemic of lifestyle-related chronic diseases but will also have an environmental co-benefit. With a population increasingly aware of current environmental issues, environmental considerations could be an additional motivating factor for patients when promoting a healthier diet or physical activity.}, }
@article {pmid32432122, year = {2020}, author = {Ferrari, M and Benvenuti, L and Rossi, L and De Santis, A and Sette, S and Martone, D and Piccinelli, R and Le Donne, C and Leclercq, C and Turrini, A}, title = {Could Dietary Goals and Climate Change Mitigation Be Achieved Through Optimized Diet? The Experience of Modeling the National Food Consumption Data in Italy.}, journal = {Frontiers in nutrition}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {48}, pmid = {32432122}, issn = {2296-861X}, abstract = {Objective: The aim of this study is to define a healthy and sustainable diet model with low GHGE, fulfilling dietary requirements, and considering current Italian food consumption patterns. Design: A duly designed database was developed, linking food nutritional composition and GHGE based on 921 food items consumed in Italy according to the last national food consumption survey (INRAN-SCAI 2005-2006). Linear programming was used to develop new diet plans separately for males and females, aged 18-60 years (n = 2,098 subjects), in order to minimize GHGE. The program is based on dietary goals and acceptability constraints as well as on 13 nutrient requirement constraints aiming to reach a healthy and acceptable diet for the Italian population. Results: Diet optimization resulted in a nutritionally adequate pattern minimizing GHGE values (4.0 vs. 1.9 kg CO2e/day for males and 3.2 vs. 1.6 kg CO2e/day for females). In both sexes, the nutrient intake of the optimized diet was at the established lower bound for cholesterol and calcium and at the established upper bound for free sugar and fiber. In males, intake of zinc was at the established lower bound whereas iron was at the established upper bound. Consumption of red meat and fruit and vegetables was at the established lower and upper bound, respectively, in both males and females. Despite the decrease in meat consumption, especially red meat, in the optimized diet with respect to the observed diet, levels of iron intake in females increased by 10% (10.3 vs. 11.3 mg/day) but remained below the adequate intake established in Italian national DRIs. Conclusions: An attainable healthy dietary pattern was developed that would lead to the reduction of GHGE by 48% for males and by 50% for females with respect to current food consumption in the Italian adult population. Health-promoting dietary patterns can substantially contribute to achieve related Sustainable Development Goals.}, }
@article {pmid32430321, year = {2020}, author = {Overpeck, JT and Udall, B}, title = {Climate change and the aridification of North America.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {22}, pages = {11856-11858}, pmid = {32430321}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid32429607, year = {2019}, author = {Pinkerton, KE and Felt, E and Riden, HE}, title = {Editorial: Extreme Weather Resulting from Global Warming is an Emerging Threat to Farmworker Health and Safety.}, journal = {Journal of agricultural safety and health}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {189-190}, doi = {10.13031/jash.13555}, pmid = {32429607}, issn = {1074-7583}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Extreme Weather ; *Farmers ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Occupational Health ; *Safety ; Weather ; }, abstract = {A warming climate has been linked to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heat and cold waves, extreme precipitation, and wildfires. This increase in extreme weather results in increased risks to the health and safety of farmworkers.}, }
@article {pmid32429527, year = {2020}, author = {Joy, A and Dunshea, FR and Leury, BJ and Clarke, IJ and DiGiacomo, K and Chauhan, SS}, title = {Resilience of Small Ruminants to Climate Change and Increased Environmental Temperature: A Review.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {32429527}, issn = {2076-2615}, support = {The University of Melbourne ECR Grant 2019//Dookie Campus, University of Melbourne/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major global threat to the sustainability of livestock systems. Climatic factors such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, direct and indirect solar radiation and wind speed influence feed and water availability, fodder quality and disease occurrence, with production being most efficient in optimal environmental conditions. Among these climatic variables, ambient temperature fluctuations have the most impact on livestock production and animal welfare. Continuous exposure of the animals to heat stress compromises growth, milk and meat production and reproduction. The capacity of an animal to mitigate effects of increased environmental temperature, without progressing into stress response, differs within and between species. Comparatively, small ruminants are better adapted to hot environments than large ruminants and have better ability to survive, produce and reproduce in harsh climatic regions. Nevertheless, the physiological and behavioral changes in response to hot environments affect small ruminant production. It has been found that tropical breeds are more adaptive to hot climates than high-producing temperate breeds. The growing body of knowledge on the negative impact of heat stress on small ruminant production and welfare will assist in the development of suitable strategies to mitigate heat stress. Selection of thermotolerant breeds, through identification of genetic traits for adaption to extreme environmental conditions (high temperature, feed scarcity, water scarcity), is a viable strategy to combat climate change and minimize the impact on small ruminant production and welfare. This review highlights such adaption within and among different breeds of small ruminants challenged by heat stress.}, }
@article {pmid32427222, year = {2020}, author = {Booth, L and Fleming, K and Abad, J and Schueller, LA and Leone, M and Scolobig, A and Baills, A}, title = {Simulating synergies between Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction stakeholders to improve management of transboundary disasters in Europe.}, journal = {International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR}, volume = {49}, number = {}, pages = {101668}, pmid = {32427222}, issn = {2212-4209}, abstract = {Natural hazards and climate-related disasters disregard political borders, where additional barriers can complicate mitigation, response and recovery efforts within and between the sectors of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The ESPREssO Project (Enhancing Synergies for Disaster Prevention in the European Union) aims to improve management of transboundary disasters by encouraging closer synergies between the CCA and DRR communities. Using targeted stakeholder interviews, questionnaires, Think Tank discussions and purpose-built serious games, ESPREssO draws on both CCA and DRR stakeholder experiences and informed perspectives in order to identify current gaps. Set within a fictitious border zone, ESPREssO's RAMSETE II serious game challenges CCA and DRR stakeholders in making coordinated decisions before, during and after a simulated disaster, in protection of population and critical infrastructure. Results highlight the essential role of local governance mechanisms as the sharp end of the policy wedge, with current examples of proactivity that require to be championed and supported at national level in order to thrive. These good practice examples reflect the fact that transboundary settings, despite their challenges, act as fertile ground for mutual growth, offering opportunities for CCA and DRR communities to find innovative ways to cooperate and unite in developing synergies and strengthening their mutual efforts towards resilience. Stakeholders emphasise a need to invest more resources in informal cooperation and call on policy makers to recognise that each border zone raises its own unique set of complex challenges that requires flexibility and special consideration by transboundary authorities in management of disasters.}, }
@article {pmid32424389, year = {2020}, author = {Eftaiha, AF and Qaroush, AK and Alsayyed, AW and Al-Qaisi, F and Alsoubani, F and Assaf, KI}, title = {The eternal battle to combat global warming: (thio)urea as a CO2 wet scrubbing agent.}, journal = {Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP}, volume = {22}, number = {21}, pages = {11829-11837}, doi = {10.1039/d0cp00629g}, pmid = {32424389}, issn = {1463-9084}, abstract = {(Thio)Urea scaffolds are best known for their importance as intermediates in organic synthesis. In this work, a mechanistic study of the reaction between urea (U), (2-hydroxyethyl)urea (U-EtOH) and thiourea (tU)/NaH in DMSO with CO2 was carried out. While both U/tU reacted with CO2via a 1 : 2 mechanism through the formation of the keto (thio)carbamide-carboxylate adducts (k-U/tU-CO2- Na+), U-EtOH gave mixed CO2-adducts composed of organic carbonate and carbamide-carboxylate moieties (Na+-CO2-U-Et-OCO2- Na+). Moreover, we recorded for the first time, a new type of bond, namely sodium carbamimidothiocarbonate (e-tU-SCO2- Na+), upon bubbling CO2 in the DMSO solution of tU due to the persistence of the enol form (e-tU) and the better nucleophilicity of sulfur over nitrogen focal points. The reaction mechanisms were proven by 1D and 2D nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and ex situ attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopies. The stability of these bonds was studied following the changes in 1H-NMR as a function of temperature, which indicated the reversibility of these reactions. Furthermore, the proposed mechanisms were explored theoretically via density functional theory (DFT) calculations by analyzing the energetics of the anticipated products.}, }
@article {pmid32423079, year = {2020}, author = {Tuno, N and Phong, TV and Takagi, M}, title = {Climate Change May Restrict the Predation Efficiency of Mesocyclops aspericornis (Copepoda: Cyclopidae) on Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Larvae.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {32423079}, issn = {2075-4450}, support = {No. 14256003, No. 19256002//Grands-in-aid for Scientific Research/ ; }, abstract = {(1) Dengue is the most spread mosquito-borne viral disease in the world, and vector control is the only available means to suppress its prevalence, since no effective treatment or vaccine has been developed. A biological control program using copepods that feed on mosquito larvae has been practiced in Vietnam and some other countries, but the application of copepods was not always successful. (2) To understand why the utility of copepods varies, we evaluated the predation efficiency of a copepod species (Mesocyclops aspericornis) on a vector species (Aedes aegypti) by laboratory experiments under different temperatures, nutrition and prey-density conditions. (3) We found that copepod predation reduced intraspecific competition among Aedes larvae and then shortened the survivor's aquatic life and increased their pupal weight. In addition, the predatory efficiency of copepods was reduced at high temperatures. Furthermore, performance of copepod offspring fell when the density of mosquito larvae was high, probably because mosquito larvae had adverse effects on copepod growth through competition for food resources. (4) These results suggest that the increase in mosquitoes will not be suppressed solely by the application of copepods if the density of mosquito larvae is high or ambient temperature is high. We need to consider additional control methods in order to maintain the efficiency of copepods to suppress mosquito increase.}, }
@article {pmid32420634, year = {2020}, author = {Nogueira, LM and Yabroff, KR and Bernstein, A}, title = {Climate change and cancer.}, journal = {CA: a cancer journal for clinicians}, volume = {70}, number = {4}, pages = {239-244}, doi = {10.3322/caac.21610}, pmid = {32420634}, issn = {1542-4863}, mesh = {Carcinogens, Environmental/*adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; *Global Burden of Disease ; Health Services Accessibility ; Humans ; Neoplasms/diagnosis/*epidemiology/etiology/therapy ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid32419148, year = {2020}, author = {Ottenburghs, J and Bosse, M}, title = {Digest: Climate change and agricultural intensification influence the strength and direction of natural selection in tree swallows.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {74}, number = {6}, pages = {1226-1227}, doi = {10.1111/evo.14003}, pmid = {32419148}, issn = {1558-5646}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Selection, Genetic ; *Swallows/genetics ; Trees ; }, abstract = {How does environmental heterogeneity affect natural selection on tree swallow nestlings? Houle et al. (2020) show that more precipitation and higher temperatures result in stronger selection on body mass and wing length and that agricultural intensity can affect the direction of selection. These findings raise the question of how genetic diversity changes under strong selection pressures, which will be especially important under ongoing agriculture intensification and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32417982, year = {2020}, author = {Jinga, P and Palagi, J}, title = {Dry and wet miombo woodlands of south-central Africa respond differently to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {6}, pages = {372}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08342-x}, pmid = {32417982}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {Not applicable//Bindura University of Science Education/ ; }, mesh = {Africa, Central ; Angola ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Forests ; Malawi ; South Africa ; Tanzania ; Zambia ; Zimbabwe ; }, abstract = {It is important to understand how species distributions will shift under climate change. While much focus has been on species tracking temperature changes in the northern hemisphere, changing precipitation patterns in tropical regions have received less attention. The aim of the study was to estimate the current distribution of wet and dry miombo woodlands of sub-Saharan Africa and to predict their distributions under different climate change scenarios. A maximum entropy method (Maxent) was used to estimate the distributions and for projections. Occurrence records of dominant tree species in each woodland were used for modeling, together with altitude, soil characteristics, and climate variables as the environmental variables. Modeling was done under all four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and three general circulation models. Three dominant tree species were used in models of dry miombo while seven were used for wet miombo. Models estimated dry miombo to cover almost the entire known distribution of miombo woodlands while wet miombo were estimated to predominate in parts of Angola, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Future climate scenarios predict a drier climate in sub-Saharan Africa, and as a result, the range of dry miombo will expand. Dry miombo were predicted to expand by up to 17.3% in 2050 and 22.7% in 2070. In contrast, wet miombo were predicted to contract by up to - 28.6% in 2050 and - 41.6% in 2070. A warming climate is conducive for the proliferation of dry miombo tree species but unfavorable for wet miombo tree species.}, }
@article {pmid32417970, year = {2020}, author = {Zeydalinejad, N and Nassery, HR and Shakiba, A and Alijani, F}, title = {Prediction of the karstic spring flow rates under climate change by climatic variables based on the artificial neural network: a case study of Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {6}, pages = {375}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-020-08332-z}, pmid = {32417970}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Iran ; *Natural Springs ; Neural Networks, Computer ; Seasons ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Few studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on groundwater resources for a region with no pumping well. Indeed, the uncertainty of pumping wells may undesirably influence the results. Therefore, a region without any pumping well was selected to assess the impact of climate change on the karstic spring flow rates. NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was used to extract the climatic variables for the present (1961-1990) and future (2021-2050) time periods by two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, in Lali region, southwest Iran. Although this dataset has been already verified, its output was evaluated for Lali region. Then, the impact of climate change on the discharge of Bibitarkhoun karstic spring was examined by the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). In this regard, if considering the daily data, ANN is not trained satisfactorily, because of the spring's lag time response to the precipitation; if monthly time step is considered, the data would not be adequate. Therefore, the average of some previous days was considered to calculate the variables. The average precipitation is 344, 329, and 324 mm/year and the average temperature is 14.18, 15.98, and 16.3 °C both for the present, future time period under RCP4.5 and future time period under RCP8.5, respectively. The network selected demonstrated no climate change impact on the average of spring discharge. However, the discharge increased by about + 8% in spring and summer and decreased by about - 7% in autumn and winter in the future time period.}, }
@article {pmid32417478, year = {2020}, author = {Araya, A and Prasad, PVV and Zambreski, Z and Gowda, PH and Ciampitti, IA and Assefa, Y and Girma, A}, title = {Spatial analysis of the impact of climate change factors and adaptation strategies on productivity of wheat in Ethiopia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {731}, number = {}, pages = {139094}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139094}, pmid = {32417478}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ethiopia ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Wheat production is expected to be challenged by future climate change. However, it is unclear how wheat grown in diverse agroecologies will respond to climate change and adaptation management strategies. A geospatial simulation study was conducted to understand the impacts of climate change and adaptation management strategies on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in Ethiopia. Simulation results showed that the average long-term baseline (1980-2005) wheat yield ranged from 1593 to 3356 kg/ha. This wheat yield range is within the national average (2100-2700 kg/ha) for this decade. In regions with cooler temperatures (<21 °C), mid-century temperatures and elevated CO2, along with increased N fertilizer slightly improved attainable yield levels above 3000 kg/ha. Whereas, in regions with heat and drought conditions wheat yield declined regardless the increase of N or CO2 levels. Wheat yield increased at a diminishing rate with increase in N fertilizer rate. However, N fertilizer did not increase yields under low rainfall conditions. Two to five irrigation per season contributed to yield improvement for low rainfall locations, while yield did not substantially improve for locations receiving adequate seasonal rainfall. Therefore, based on this study, improved N fertilizer application in combination with increased CO2 could improve wheat yield under future climate in most wheat producing regions (with adequate rainfall) of Ethiopia. Our results provide valuable information regarding impacts of climate change factors and adaptation strategies for producers, researchers, extension professionals and policy makers.}, }
@article {pmid32417470, year = {2020}, author = {Cao, B and Bai, C and Xue, Y and Yang, J and Gao, P and Liang, H and Zhang, L and Che, L and Wang, J and Xu, J and Duan, C and Mao, M and Li, G}, title = {Wetlands rise and fall: Six endangered wetland species showed different patterns of habitat shift under future climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {731}, number = {}, pages = {138518}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138518}, pmid = {32417470}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Temperature ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Degradation and loss of species' suitable habitats in response to global warming are well documented, which are assumed to be affected by increasing temperature. Conversely, habitat increase of species is little reported and is often considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. In this study, we first revealed the climate-change-driven habitat shifts of six endangered wetland plants - Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, Carex doniana, Glyptostrobus pensilis, Leersia hexandra, Metasequoia glyptostroboides, and Pedicularis longiflora. The current and future potential habitats of the six species in China were predicted using a maximum entropy model based on thirty-year occurrence records and climate monitoring (from 1960 to 1990). Furthermore, we observed the change of real habitats of the six species based on eight-year field observations (from 2011 to 2019). We found that the six species exhibited three different patterns of habitat shifts including decrease, unstable, and increase. The analysis on the main decisive environmental factors showed that these patterns of habitat shifts are counter to what would be expected global warming but are mostly determined by precipitation-related environmental factors rather than temperature. Collectively, our findings highlight the importance of combining multiple environmental factors including temperature and precipitation for understanding plant responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32416361, year = {2020}, author = {Linares, C and Martinez, GS and Kendrovski, V and Diaz, J}, title = {A new integrative perspective on early warning systems for health in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {187}, number = {}, pages = {109623}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109623}, pmid = {32416361}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change causes or aggravates a wide range of exposures with multiple impacts on health, both direct and indirect. Early warning systems have been established to act on the risks posed by these exposures, permitting the timely activation of action plans to minimize health effects. These plans are usually activated individually. Although they show good results from the point of view of minimizing health impacts, such as in the case of high temperature plans, they commonly fail to address the synergies across various climate-related or climate-aggravated exposures. Since several of those exposures tend to occur concurrently, failure to integrate them in prevention efforts could affect their effectiveness and reach. Thus, there is a need to carry out an integrative approach for the multiple effects that climate change has on population health. This article presents a proposal for how these plans should be articulated. The proposed integrated plan would consist of four phases. The first phase, based on early warning systems, would be the activation of different existing individual plans related to the health effects that can be caused by certain circumstances and when possible corrective measures would be implemented. The second phase would attempt to quantify the health impact foreseen by the event in terms of the different health indicators selected. The third phase would be to activate measures to minimize the impact on health, via population alerts and advisories, and additional social and health services, based on the provisions in phase two. Phase four would be related to epidemiological surveillance that permits evaluation of the effects of activating the plan. We believe that this integrative approach should be extended to all of the public health interventions related to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32415620, year = {2020}, author = {Thapliyal, G and Vemanna, RS and Pawar, PM and Barthwal, S and Meena, RK and Pandey, S and Bhandari, MS}, title = {First record of off-season flowering in Populus deltoides from India: paradigm of climate change indicator.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {9}, pages = {1629-1634}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01915-y}, pmid = {32415620}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Flowers ; India ; *Populus ; Seasons ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Populus deltoides is a fast-growing woody species possessing plethora of industrial applications. This species evolutionarily developed unisexual male and female catkin inflorescence on separate trees. Flowering usually occurs during early spring before the development of foliage, where buds appear near axils or at the extending shoots. In 2019, surveys were undertaken to study the flowering pattern of P. deltoides in the states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in northern India. Interestingly, an anomalous flowering behaviour (appearance of off-season male catkins during autumn, i.e. October) was observed in a plantation trial at Kapurthala, Punjab. The male catkins were 2.7-3.1 ± 0.07 cm long and 0.3-0.5 ± 0.03 cm wide, which is significant for flowering and liberation of pollen grains. Preliminary results suggested that climatic factors, such as episodes of high or low temperature and the precipitation variation forcing the tree species to behave differently. Unearthing the climate-driven off-season flowering in other tree species alluded the stimulation of phytohormones, such as gibberellic and salicylic acid concentrations influencing the flowering time, therefore, needs further investigation in case of P. deltoides. Overall, this work provides early clues of changing climatic scenario altering the flowering pattern of a tropical forestry tree species.}, }
@article {pmid32415221, year = {2020}, author = {Schreiner-McGraw, AP and Vivoni, ER and Ajami, H and Sala, OE and Throop, HL and Peters, DPC}, title = {Woody Plant Encroachment has a Larger Impact than Climate Change on Dryland Water Budgets.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {8112}, pmid = {32415221}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Woody plant encroachment (WPE) into grasslands is a global phenomenon that is associated with land degradation via xerification, which replaces grasses with shrubs and bare soil patches. It remains uncertain how the global processes of WPE and climate change may combine to impact water availability for ecosystems. Using a process-based model constrained by watershed observations, our results suggest that both xerification and climate change augment groundwater recharge by increasing channel transmission losses at the expense of plant available water. Conversion from grasslands to shrublands without creating additional bare soil, however, reduces transmission losses. Model simulations considering both WPE and climate change are used to assess their relative roles in a late 21[st] century condition. Results indicate that changes in focused channel recharge are determined primarily by the WPE pathway. As a result, WPE should be given consideration when assessing the vulnerability of groundwater aquifers to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32411511, year = {2020}, author = {Cuena-Lombraña, A and Porceddu, M and Dettori, CA and Bacchetta, G}, title = {Predicting the consequences of global warming on Gentiana lutea germination at the edge of its distributional and ecological range.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {e8894}, pmid = {32411511}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Temperature is the main environmental factor controlling seed germination; it determines both the percentage and the rate of germination. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global mean surface temperature could increase of approximately 2-4 °C by 2090-2099. As a consequence of global warming, the period of snow cover is decreasing on several mountain areas. Thermal time approach can be used to characterise the seed germination of plants and to evaluate the germination behaviour under the climate change scenarios. In this study, the effect of different cold stratification periods on seed dormancy release and germination of Gentiana lutea subsp. lutea, a taxon listed in Annex V of the Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC), was evaluated. Furthermore, the thermal requirements and the consequences of the temperature rise for seed germination of this species were estimated. In addition, a conceptual representation of the thermal time approach is presented.<br><br>METHODS: Seeds of G. lutea subsp. lutea were harvested from at least 50 randomly selected plants in two representative localities of the Gennargentu massif (Sardinia). Germination tests were carried out under laboratory conditions and the responses at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 &#xb0;C were recorded. Different cold stratification pre-treatments at 1 &#xb1; 1 &#xb0;C (i.e. 0, 15, 30, 60 and 90 days) were applied. Successively, the base temperature (T b) and the number of thermal units (&#x3b8;, &#xb0;Cd) for germination were estimated. Additionally, this study examined the consequences of an increase in temperatures based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RPC) scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: The results indicated that from 0 to 30 days of cold stratification, the germination was null or very low. After 60 and 90 days of cold stratification the seed dormancy was removed; however, 25 and 30 &#xb0;C negatively affected the germination capacity of non-dormant seeds. Seeds cold-stratified for 90 days showed a lower T b than those stratified for 60 days. However, 60 and 90 days of cold stratification did not cause great variations in the thermal time units. Analysing the RPC scenarios, we detected that the number of days useful for dormancy release of seeds of G. lutea may be less than 30 days, a condition that does not permit an effective dormancy release.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that seeds of G. lutea need at least 60 days of cold stratification to remove dormancy and promote the germination. The thermal time model developed in this work allowed us to identify the thermal threshold requirements of seed germination of this species, increasing the knowledge of a plant threatened by global warming. Our results emphasise the need for further studies aiming at a better characterisation of germination efficiency, especially for species that require cold stratification. This would improve the knowledge on the germination mechanisms of adaptation to different future global warming conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32411508, year = {2020}, author = {Egbebiyi, TS and Crespo, O and Lennard, C and Zaroug, M and Nikulin, G and Harris, I and Price, J and Forstenhäusler, N and Warren, R}, title = {Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {e8851}, pmid = {32411508}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global warming is projected to result in higher regional warming and have a strong impact on agriculture. This study specifically examines the impact of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°, 2° and 3 °C relative to 1971-2000 on crop suitability over West Africa. We used 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 Global Climate Models (CMIP5 GCMs) downscaled by Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Rossby Centre's regional Atmospheric model version 4, RCA4, to drive Ecocrop, a crop suitability model, for pearl millet, cassava, groundnut, cowpea, maize and plantain. The results show Ecocrop simulated crop suitability spatial representation with higher suitability, observed to the south of latitude 14°N and lower suitability to its north for 1971-2000 for all crops except for plantain (12°N). The model also simulates the best three planting months within the growing season from September-August over the past climate. Projected changes in crop suitability under the three GWLs 1.5-3.0 °C suggest a spatial suitability expansion for legume and cereal crops, notably in the central southern Sahel zone; root and tuber and plantain in the central Guinea-Savanna zone. In contrast, projected decreases in the crop suitability index value are predicted to the south of 14°N for cereals, root and tuber crops; nevertheless, the areas remain suitable for the crops. A delay of between 1-3 months is projected over the region during the planting month under the three GWLs for legumes, pearl millet and plantain. A two month delay in planting is projected in the south, notably over the Guinea and central Savanna zone with earlier planting of about three months in the Savanna-Sahel zones. The effect of GWL2.0 and GWL3.0 warming in comparison to GWL1.5 °C are more dramatic on cereals and root and tuber crops, especially cassava. All the projected changes in simulated crop suitability in response to climatic variables are statistically significant at 99% confidence level. There is also an increasing trend in the projected crop suitability change across the three warming except for cowpea. This study has implications for improving the resilience of crop production to climate changes, and more broadly, to food security in West Africa.}, }
@article {pmid32409761, year = {2019}, author = {Morton, A}, title = {How Australia's election will decide its role in climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-01543-6}, pmid = {32409761}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32408439, year = {2020}, author = {Costa, S and Coppola, F and Pretti, C and Intorre, L and Meucci, V and Soares, AMVM and Solé, M and Freitas, R}, title = {Biochemical and physiological responses of two clam species to Triclosan combined with climate change scenario.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {724}, number = {}, pages = {138143}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138143}, pmid = {32408439}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; Climate Change ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seawater ; *Triclosan ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Ocean acidification and warming are among the man-induced factors that most likely impact aquatic wildlife worldwide. Besides effects caused by temperature rise and lowered pH conditions, chemicals of current use can also adversely affect aquatic organisms. Both climate change and emerging pollutants, including toxic impacts in marine invertebrates, have been investigated in recent years. However, less information is available on the combined effects of these physical and chemical stressors that, in nature, occur simultaneously. Thus, this study contrasts the effects caused by the antimicrobial agent and plastic additive, Triclosan (TCS) in the related clams Ruditapes philippinarum (invasive) and Ruditapes decussatus (native) and evaluates if the impacts are influenced by combined temperature and pH modifications. Organisms were acclimated for 30 days at two conditions (control: 17 °C; pH 8.1 and climate change scenario: 21 °C, pH 7.7) in the absence of the drug (experimental period I) followed by a 7 days exposure under the same water physical parameters but either in absence (unexposed) or presence of TCS at 1 μg/L (experimental period II). Biochemical responses covering metabolic, oxidative defences and damage-related biomarkers were contrasted in clams at the end of experimental period II. The overall picture showed a well-marked antioxidant activation and higher TCS bioaccumulation of the drug under the forecasted climate scenario despite a reduction on respiration rate and unaltered metabolism in the exposed clams. Since clams are highly consumed shellfish, the consequences for higher tissue bioaccumulation of anthropogenic chemicals to final consumers should be alerted not only at present conditions but more significantly under predicted climatic conditions for humans but also for other components of the marine trophic chain.}, }
@article {pmid32404663, year = {2021}, author = {Ewbank, C and Stewart, B and Bruns, B and Deckelbaum, D and Gologorsky, R and Groen, R and Gupta, S and Harris, MJ and Godfrey, R and Leppäniemi, A and Malone, DL and Newton, C and Traynor, MD and Wong, EG and Kushner, AL}, title = {The Development of a Surgical Care and Climate Change Matrix: A Tool to Assist With Prioritization and Implementation Strategies.}, journal = {Annals of surgery}, volume = {273}, number = {2}, pages = {e50-e51}, doi = {10.1097/SLA.0000000000003980}, pmid = {32404663}, issn = {1528-1140}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *General Surgery ; *Health Priorities ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32399720, year = {2020}, author = {Bein, T and Karagiannidis, C and Gründling, M and Quintel, M}, title = {[New challenges for intensive care medicine due to climate change and global warming].}, journal = {Der Anaesthesist}, volume = {69}, number = {7}, pages = {463-469}, pmid = {32399720}, issn = {1432-055X}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases ; Critical Care/*trends ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Kidney Diseases ; Lung Diseases ; Mental Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the last five decades a continuous increase in the average global temperature has been recorded. Furthermore, natural disasters (e.g. heat waves, severe storms, floods and large forest fires) are becoming more frequent. The impact of global warming and climate change on health involves an increase in respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and cognitive mental diseases. Furthermore, a change in the frequency and patterns of infectious diseases can also be observed in Europe.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: This article presents the most important studies that investigated diseases associated with the climate change, with special reference to those that represent a challenge for intensive care medicine.<br><br>RESULTS: Currently available epidemiological data and statistical extrapolations indicate that diseases resulting from the climate change (acute infection-related respiratory and intestinal diseases, exacerbation of pre-existing pulmonary lesions, heat-related dehydration, cerebral insults and myocardial infarction) are relevant for intensive care medicine. Particular emphasis is placed on a significant increase in acute kidney damage during heat waves. A previously unknown pattern of infectious diseases necessitates new knowledge and targeted management. In some studies, persisting mental impairments were registered during heat waves and natural disasters, e.g. posttraumatic stress disorder.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Intensive care medicine must be prepared for the challenges due to global warming and climate change. Slow but continuous changes (e.g. rise in temperature) as well as acute changes (e.g. heat waves and natural disasters) will induce an increased need for intensive medical care services (e.g. an increase in the need for renal replacement procedures). Intensive care physicians will need to be familiar with the diagnostics and management of diseases associated with the climate change. An initiative of the specialist societies involved would be welcomed.}, }
@article {pmid32399247, year = {2020}, author = {Mousavi, A and Ardalan, A and Takian, A and Ostadtaghizadeh, A and Naddafi, K and Bavani, AM}, title = {Climate change and health in Iran: a narrative review.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health science &amp; engineering}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {367-378}, pmid = {32399247}, issn = {2052-336X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The consequences of climate change are highly impeding the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) anywhere, especially in low and middle-income countries. While climate change scales up, its health-related risks increase, which in turn leads to cause new challenges for public health. As a second largest country of the Eastern Mediterranean Region of World Health Organization, Iran is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.<br><br>PURPOSE: This study seeks the notion of health risks and challenges of climate change in Iran and provide potential evidence-based remedies to prevent and diminish such destructive effects.<br><br>METHODS: A comprehensive literature in various computerized databases was conducted, and numerous published original research and review articles about climate change status and evidences of adverse health consequences of climate change in Iran were reviewed.<br><br>RESULTS: The evidence suggests that the expected health challenges related to climate change in Iran are: rising temperatures; frequent extreme weather events; reduction of air quality; food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases; mental health and well-being consequences; and the increasing trend of natural disasters and deaths associated with climatological hazards.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: By considering the growing burden of diseases associated with climate variability in Iran as well as the interdisciplinary nature of climate change and health issues, an integrated, multi-sectoral, and comprehensive approach for identification, prioritization, and implementation of adaptation options is required by Ministry of Health and Medical Education as a custodian of public health in order to enhance the resiliency and adaption against adverse health effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32398194, year = {2020}, author = {Denholm, J}, title = {Seasonality, climate change and tuberculosis: new data and old lessons.}, journal = {The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {469}, doi = {10.5588/ijtld.20.0088}, pmid = {32398194}, issn = {1815-7920}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Seasons ; South Africa ; *Tuberculosis/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid32393851, year = {2020}, author = {Grünig, M and Mazzi, D and Calanca, P and Karger, DN and Pellissier, L}, title = {Crop and forest pest metawebs shift towards increased linkage and suitability overlap under climate change.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {233}, pmid = {32393851}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Crop Production ; Crops, Agricultural/physiology ; Europe ; *Food Chain ; *Forestry ; Forests ; *Insect Control ; Insecta/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Global changes pose both risks and opportunities to agriculture and forestry, and biological forecasts can inform future management strategies. Here, we investigate potential land-use opportunities arising from climate change for these sectors in Europe, and risks associated with the introduction and establishment of novel insect pests. Adopting a metaweb approach including all interaction links between 126 crops and forest tree species and 89 black-listed insect pest species, we show that the metawebs shift toward increased numbers of links and overlap of suitable area under climate change. Decomposing the metaweb across regions shows large saturation in southern Europe, while many novel interactions are expected for northern Europe. In light of the rising consumer awareness about human health and environmental impacts of food and wood production, the challenge will be to effectively exploit new opportunities to create diverse local agriculture and forestry while controlling pest species and reducing risks from pesticide use.}, }
@article {pmid32393774, year = {2020}, author = {Alexander, M}, title = {Pandemics, climate change, and disability related to SCI.}, journal = {Spinal cord series and cases}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {36}, pmid = {32393774}, issn = {2058-6124}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disabled Persons ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; Spinal Cord Injuries/*therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid32392673, year = {2020}, author = {Lorenzo, MN and Alvarez, I}, title = {Climate change patterns in precipitation over Spain using CORDEX projections for 2021-2050.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {723}, number = {}, pages = {138024}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138024}, pmid = {32392673}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This work presents an analysis of the climate change scenarios in some extreme precipitation indices over Spain using simulations from the EURO-CORDEX project. Change projections of precipitation are evaluated for the near future (2021-2050) relatively to a reference past climate (1971-2000). Projections of annual precipitation show a general decrease in almost the whole region except over the central area where positive changes are detected due to a significant increase in winter. For consecutive wet days, an annual decrease is also projected over the country attributable to a significant decrease mainly observed in spring and to a lesser extent in winter. On the other hand, consecutive dry days are projected to be higher overall as a result of significant increases in spring, summer and autumn. Positive changes are also projected for the maximum daily precipitation during winter and autumn.}, }
@article {pmid32392150, year = {2020}, author = {Adedoyin, F and Ozturk, I and Abubakar, I and Kumeka, T and Folarin, O and Bekun, FV}, title = {Structural breaks in CO2 emissions: Are they caused by climate change protests or other factors?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {266}, number = {}, pages = {110628}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110628}, pmid = {32392150}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Asia ; Canada ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; }, abstract = {In recent times, there has been increase in climate change protest across the globe. However, whether decrease in emissions is connected with climate change protest or not is yet to be documented in the literature. Consequently, the aim of this study is to fill this gap by examining ex-post detection of how climate change protests and its interconnectedness with CO2 emissions. Using the Bai and Perron (1998) structural break test, we estimate the number of breaks as well as the date of such structural breaks in CO2 emissions series for 41 countries. Our aim is to match the date of the climate change protests to those of the structural breaks. We observe that climate change protests are fairly consistent with the dates of breaks in Europe and Asia, but not in BRICS economies or US, Canada and other countries. Therefore, this method allows us to solve a gap in the energy industry related to the modelling and correct allocation of positive shocks in CO2 emissions to climate change protests.}, }
@article {pmid32390204, year = {2020}, author = {O'Kane, G}, title = {Climate change and rural health.}, journal = {The Australian journal of rural health}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {186}, doi = {10.1111/ajr.12614}, pmid = {32390204}, issn = {1440-1584}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; Humans ; *Rural Health ; *Rural Population ; }, }
@article {pmid32390197, year = {2020}, author = {Jones, M and Mills, D and Gray, R}, title = {Expecting the unexpected? Improving rural health in the era of bushfires, novel coronavirus and climate change.}, journal = {The Australian journal of rural health}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {107-109}, doi = {10.1111/ajr.12623}, pmid = {32390197}, issn = {1440-1584}, mesh = {Australia ; Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Climate Change ; Coronavirus Infections/*prevention &amp; control ; Disaster Planning/*standards ; Emergency Medical Services/*standards ; *Fires ; Humans ; Pandemics/*prevention &amp; control ; Pneumonia, Viral/*prevention &amp; control ; Rural Health/*standards ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Social Support ; }, }
@article {pmid32388556, year = {2020}, author = {Dominguez-Rodriguez, A and Rodríguez, S and Hernández-Vaquero, D}, title = {Air pollution is intimately linked to global climate change: change in Cardiovascular Disease Statistics 2019.}, journal = {European heart journal}, volume = {41}, number = {27}, pages = {2601}, doi = {10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa295}, pmid = {32388556}, issn = {1522-9645}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; *Cardiology ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32387776, year = {2020}, author = {Santos, C and Imteaz, MA and Ghisi, E and Matos, C}, title = {The effect of climate change on domestic Rainwater Harvesting.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {729}, number = {}, pages = {138967}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138967}, pmid = {32387776}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {One of the main strategies that are being applied to improve the efficiency of water consumption in buildings is the use of non-potable water for pavement washing, toilet flushing, irrigation, and others. According to several guidelines, the design and assessment of a Rainwater Harvesting System (RWHS) should be made using recent official records of precipitation. However, there is not an indication whether historical or future projections should be used, leaving space for the designer to choose. This article presents the study of RWHS in southern Europe, namely in Portugal, considering two case studies (a dwelling in Oporto and an apartment in Vila Real). The main goal was to explore the impacts that climate change will have on these systems and, for that purpose, a daily simulation using future rainfall data was performed for both cases considering two scenarios: RCP 4.5 which is more optimistic, and RCP 8.5 which is more pessimistic. The RWHS in Oporto showed a better performance in the future decades, comparing with simulations based on recent decades, for both scenarios. However, the savings will not have a significant variation (less than 5 €/year). In the future, this system will provide around 47 (±2.4) m[3] of rainwater per year to the selected non-potable purposes, leading to savings of around 66 (±3.3) €/year. Vila Real case study also revealed a slight improvement of the system's efficiency in the future decades but the results for rainwater collected and used are so similar to the recent ones that it can be concluded that the performance will be sustained. This system will provide around 50 (±2.5) m[3] of rainwater per year to the selected non-potable purposes, leading to savings of around 200 (±10.2) €/year. It can be concluded that there will be no significant changes in RWHS performance in the future, in the studied areas.}, }
@article {pmid32387769, year = {2020}, author = {Pilecco, GE and Chantigny, MH and Weiler, DA and Aita, C and Thivierge, MN and Schmatz, R and Chaves, B and Giacomini, SJ}, title = {Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential from biofuel cropping systems fertilized with mineral and organic nitrogen sources.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {729}, number = {}, pages = {138767}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138767}, pmid = {32387769}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Biofuels ; Fertilizers ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Gases ; Methane ; Minerals ; Nitrogen ; Nitrous Oxide ; Soil ; Swine ; }, abstract = {Non-legume bioenergy crops can be fertilized with animal manures instead of mineral fertilizers, but the simultaneous application of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) with manures can increase nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. On the other hand, manure could increase soil organic C stocks and partly offset greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming potential (GWP) of crop systems. We performed a two-year study in a biofuel cropping system with sunflower and canola to examine the effects of manure fertilization on grain yields and N use efficiency of crops, and on GWP and GHG intensity (GHGI) in no-till soils under subtropical conditions. The GWP and GHGI were calculated from measured methane (CH4) and N2O emissions and soil organic C stock change, and from estimated carbon dioxide emissions associated with agricultural inputs and farm operations. The following treatments were tested: (i) mineral fertilizer (MF); (ii) poultry manure (PM); (iii) pig deep-litter (PDL); and (iv) no-N control. The application rate of each treatment was adjusted to provide 60 kg available N ha[-1] to crops. Grain yield and N accumulated by sunflower and canola were greater in fertilized treatments than in the control, and did not differ among N sources. However, crop N use efficiency was on average 50% lower with manures than MF. CH4 emissions were not affected by N sources, but N2O emissions increased as follows: control (1.37) < MF (2.04) < PDL (4.12) < PM (4.95 kg N ha[-1]). On the other hand, soil organic C stocks increased more rapidly with manures than MF, resulting in significantly lower GWP and GHGI with manures than MF after two years. These results indicate that animal manures can replace MF as the main source of N to non-legume oil crops and reduce net GHG emissions in biofuel cropping systems under subtropical conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32386506, year = {2020}, author = {Ren, Z and Zagortchev, L and Ma, J and Yan, M and Li, J}, title = {Predicting the potential distribution of the parasitic Cuscuta chinensis under global warming.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {28}, pmid = {32386506}, issn = {1472-6785}, support = {15-2//Inter-governmental S&amp;T Cooperation Proposal between Bulgaria and China/International ; DNTS China 01/5//National Science Fund of the Bulgarian Ministry of Education and Science/International ; 2019//Ten Thousand Talent Program of Zhejiang Province/International ; }, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; *Cuscuta ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The climate is the dominant factor that affects the distribution of plants. Cuscuta chinensis is a stem holoparasitic plant without leaves or roots, which develops a haustorium and sucks nutrients from host plants. The potential distribution of the parasitic plant C. chinensis has not been predicted to date. This study used Maxent modeling to predict the potential global distribution of C. chinensis, based on the following six main bioclimatic variables: annual mean temperature, isothermality, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter.<br><br>RESULTS: The optimal annual average temperature and isothermality of C. chinensis ranged from 4 to 37&#xa0;&#xb0;C and less than 45, respectively, while the optimal temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality ranged from 4000 to 25,000 and from 50 to 130, respectively. The optimal precipitation of the warmest season ranged from 300 to 1000&#xa0;mm and from 2500 to 3500&#xa0;mm, while that of the coldest season was less than 2000&#xa0;mm. In Asia, C. chinensis is mainly distributed at latitudes ranging from 20&#xb0; N to 50&#xb0; N. During three specific historical periods (last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and 1960-1990) the habitats suitable for C. chinensis were concentrated in the central, northern, southern, and eastern parts of China. From the last glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 increased by 0.0875 million km[2]; however, from the mid-Holocene to 1960-1990, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 decreased by 0.0759 million km[2]. The simulation results of habitat suitability in the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 (i.e., the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway) and 8.5 (i.e., the high greenhouse gas emissions pathway) indicate that the habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. Compared with RCP2.6, areas with averaged suitability and high suitability for survival (RCP8.5) decreased by 0.18 million km[2].<br><br>CONCLUSION: Suitable habitats of C. chinensis are situated in central, northern, southern, and eastern China. The habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. These results provide a reference for the management and control of C. chinensis.}, }
@article {pmid32386209, year = {2020}, author = {Aydogan, EL and Budich, O and Hardt, M and Choi, YH and Jansen-Willems, AB and Moser, G and Müller, C and Kämpfer, P and Glaeser, SP}, title = {Global warming shifts the composition of the abundant bacterial phyllosphere microbiota as indicated by a cultivation-dependent and -independent study of the grassland phyllosphere of a long-term warming field experiment.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology ecology}, volume = {96}, number = {8}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsec/fiaa087}, pmid = {32386209}, issn = {1574-6941}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Grassland ; *Microbiota ; Plant Leaves ; RNA, Ribosomal, 16S/genetics ; }, abstract = {The leaf-colonizing bacterial microbiota was studied in a long-term warming experiment on a permanent grassland, which had been continuously exposed to increased surface temperature (+2°C) for more than six years. Two abundant plant species, Arrhenatherum elatius and Galium album, were studied. Surface warming reduced stomata opening and changed leaf metabolite profiles. Leaf surface colonization and the concentration of leaf-associated bacterial cells were not affected. However, bacterial 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene amplicon Illumina sequencing showed significant temperature effects on the plant species-specific phyllosphere microbiota. Warming partially affected the concentrations of cultured bacteria and had a significant effect on the composition of most abundant cultured plant species-specific bacteria. The abundance of Sphingomonas was significantly reduced. Sphingomonas isolates from warmed plots represented different phylotypes, had different physiological traits and were better adapted to higher temperatures. Among Methylobacterium isolates, a novel phylotype with a specific mxaFtype was cultured from plants of warmed plots while the most abundant phylotype cultured from control plots was strongly reduced. This study clearly showed a correlation of long-term surface warming with changes in the plant physiology and the development of a physiologically and genetically adapted phyllosphere microbiota.}, }
@article {pmid32385855, year = {2020}, author = {Coates, SJ and Andersen, LK and Boos, MD}, title = {Balancing public health and private wealth: lessons on climate inaction from the COVID-19 pandemic - a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {59}, number = {7}, pages = {869-871}, pmid = {32385855}, issn = {1365-4632}, support = {//University of California Global Health Institute (UCGHI)/ ; D43 TW009343/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; /NH/NIH HHS/United States ; D43TW009343/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; /CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; *Climate Change ; Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology ; *Dermatology ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology ; *Public Health ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid32385312, year = {2020}, author = {Leite, C and Oliveira, V and Miranda, I and Pereira, H}, title = {Cork oak and climate change: Disentangling drought effects on cork chemical composition.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7800}, pmid = {32385312}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change induces in the Mediterranean region more frequent and extreme events, namely, heat waves and droughts, disturbing forest species and affecting their productivity and product quality. The cork oak (Quercus suber) is present along the western Mediterranean basin and its outer bark (cork) is sustainably collected and used for several products, mainly wine bottle stoppers. Since most cork properties arise from its chemical composition, this research studies the effect of drought on cork chemical composition (suberin, lignin, polysaccharides and extractives) and on polysaccharide and suberin monomeric composition. Three sets of cork samples, from the same site, were examined: in one set the cork grew without drought; in another two drought events occurred during cork growth and in the third one drought event happened. The results show that, in general, drought does not affect the proportion of the main components of cork, the monomers of suberin or of polysaccharides, with few exceptions e.g. drought increased ethanol extractives and xylose in polysaccharides and decreased arabinose in polysaccharides. The variability associated to the tree is much more relevant than the effect of drought conditions and affects all the parameters analyzed. Therefore, our research suggests that the tree genetic information, or its expression, plays a much more important role on the chemical composition of cork than the drought conditions occurring during cork growth. In practical terms, the potential increased occurrence of droughts arising from climatic changes will not compromise the performance of cork as a sealant for wine bottles.}, }
@article {pmid32384901, year = {2020}, author = {Sweileh, WM}, title = {Bibliometric analysis of peer-reviewed literature on climate change and human health with an emphasis on infectious diseases.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {44}, pmid = {32384901}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia/epidemiology ; Bibliometrics ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Publications ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Assessing research activity is important for planning future protective and adaptive policies. The objective of the current study was to assess research activity on climate change and health with an emphasis on infectious diseases.<br><br>METHOD: A bibliometric method was applied using SciVerse Scopus. Documents on climate change and human health were called "health-related literature" while documents on climate change and infectious diseases were called "infection-related literature". The study period was from 1980 to 2019.<br><br>RESULTS: The search query found 4247 documents in the health-related literature and 1207 in the infection-related literature. The growth of publications showed a steep increase after 2007. There were four research themes in the health-related literature: (1) climate change and infectious diseases; (2) climate change, public health and food security; (3) heat waves, mortality, and non-communicable diseases; and (4) climate change, air pollution, allergy, and respiratory health. The most frequently encountered pathogens/infectious diseases in the infection-related literature were malaria and dengue. Documents in infection-related literature had a higher h-index than documents in the health-related literature. The top-cited documents in the health-related literature focused on food security, public health, and infectious diseases while those in infection-related literature focused on water-, vector-, and mosquito-borne diseases. The European region had the highest contribution in health-related literature (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;1626; 38.3%) and infection-related literature (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;497; 41.2%). The USA led with 1235 (29.1%) documents in health-related literature and 365 (30.2%) documents in infection-related literature. The Australian National University ranked first in the health-related literature while the London School of Hygiene &amp; Tropical Medicine ranked first in the infection-related literature. International research collaboration was inadequate. Documents published in the Environmental Health Perspectives journal received the highest citations per document. A total of 1416 (33.3%) documents in the health-related literature were funded while 419 (34.7%) documents in the infection-related literature were funded.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Research on climate change and human health is on the rise with research on infection-related issues making a good share. International research collaboration should be funded and supported. Future research needs to focus on the impact of climate change on psychosocial, mental, innovations, policies, and preparedness of health systems.}, }
@article {pmid32384124, year = {2020}, author = {Prevéy, JS and Parker, LE and Harrington, CA}, title = {Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e0232537}, pmid = {32384124}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Corylus/growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; *Gaultheria/growth &amp; development ; *Mahonia/growth &amp; development ; Models, Theoretical ; North America ; }, abstract = {Climate change is shifting both the habitat suitability and the timing of critical biological events, such as flowering and fruiting, for plant species across the globe. Here, we ask how both the distribution and phenology of three food-producing shrubs native to northwestern North America might shift as the climate changes. To address this question, we compared gridded climate data with species location data to identify climate variables that best predicted the current bioclimatic niches of beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), and salal (Gaultheria shallon). We also developed thermal-sum models for the timing of flowering and fruit ripening for these species. We then used multi-model ensemble future climate projections to estimate how species range and phenology may change under future conditions. Modelling efforts showed extreme minimum temperature, climate moisture deficit, and mean summer precipitation were predictive of climatic suitability across all three species. Future bioclimatic niche models project substantial reductions in habitat suitability across the lower elevation and southern portions of the species' current ranges by the end of the 21st century. Thermal-sum phenology models for these species indicate that flowering and the ripening of fruits and nuts will advance an average of 25 days by the mid-21st century, and 36 days by the late-21st century under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Future changes in the climatic niche and phenology of these important food-producing species may alter trophic relationships, with cascading impacts on regional ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid32382016, year = {2020}, author = {Byers, EA and Coxon, G and Freer, J and Hall, JW}, title = {Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2239}, pmid = {32382016}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain's power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GWe) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29-66m.yr[-1] GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr[-1]. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr[-1]. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1[st]-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.}, }
@article {pmid32380633, year = {2019}, author = {Shi, X and Sun, L and Chen, X and Wang, L}, title = {Farmers' perceived efficacy of adaptive behaviors to climate change in the Loess Plateau, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {697}, number = {}, pages = {134217}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134217}, pmid = {32380633}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The impact of climate change is very significant to farmers who depend on natural resources for livelihood. It is essential to have a better understanding of farmers' assessments of the efficacy of adaptive behaviors for formulating appropriate adaptation policies and improving farmers' ability to adapt to climate change. Based on survey data from interviews with farmers in the Loess Plateau, the features of farmers' perceived adaptation efficacy are analyzed. Three multiple linear regression models are used to analyze farmers' perceived efficacy of adaptive behaviors and identify factors influencing those assessments in terms of farmers' demographical and social factors, their perception of climate change, their perception of climate change effects and the average temperature and precipitation from 2005 to 2015 in this area. The results are as follows: (1) Generally, the adaptive behaviors with high perceived adaptation efficacy were used by most respondents. Measures with relatively low perceived adaptation efficacy were not commonly adopted, such as migration, buying insurance, changing planting and harvesting time. (2) The factors affect the perceived efficacy of adaption behavior in decreasing order are as follows: perception of climate change, the average precipitation, and demographical and social factors. Perception of local natural disasters, perception of planting and harvesting time, crop yield and diseases and insect pests caused by climate change were found to affect farmers' adaptation assessments. The key demographical and social factors influencing farmers' assessments were non-farming income, farming income, farmland quantity, gender, the frequency of watching TV and going to the market.}, }
@article {pmid32374789, year = {2020}, author = {Shi, W and Jiang, H and Mao, X and Xu, H}, title = {Pollen record of climate change during the last deglaciation from the eastern Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e0232803}, pmid = {32374789}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forests ; Geologic Sediments/analysis ; Grassland ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Humidity ; *Ice Cover ; Magnoliopsida/*cytology ; *Pollen ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {The eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a climatically sensitive area affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). A new pollen record from a lacustrine sediment in Mao County shows that the study area was covered mainly by shrubs and herbs during the last deglaciation, indicating open and sparse forest grasslands. Hydrophilous herbs were mainly dominated by Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Myriophyllum, Polygonum and Typha, and they gradually increased from 18.7 to 16.8 ka, suggesting a transition to a more humid climate. This corresponds to climate cooling over the same period. From 16.8 to 14.6 ka, hydrophilous herbs continued to increase, coincident with a general ameliorating trend indicated by δ18O records from East Asia. Between 14.6 and 14.0 ka, the mean content of hydrophilous herbs reached peak in the sequence, corresponding to relatively high δ18O values during this period. From ~14.0 to 12.9 ka, the abundance of hydrophilous herbs decreased significantly. Over the same period, the Greenland ice core shows a decrease in δ18O and low-latitude cave stalagmites in China record an increase in δ18O. This implies that longitudinal temperature gradients increased and drove the southward retreat of the ISM, which in turn drove a continuous decrease in the abundance of hydrophilous herbs in the study area. From 12.9 to 11.6 ka, the mean content of hydrophilous herbs decreased to the lowest (8.3%) in the whole sequence, indicating a cold and dry climate in the study area. A positive shift in δ18O records during 11.6-10.6 ka was matched by a significant increase in the abundance of hydrophilous herbs in the study area, indicating a warm and humid climate trending. Hence, the ISM has had a significant impact on the climate of the eastern TP since the onset of deglaciation around ~16.8 ka.}, }
@article {pmid32374105, year = {2020}, author = {Pasini, A}, title = {[Detection and attribution of the recent global warming: state of the art].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {9-10}, doi = {10.19191/EP20.1.P009.008}, pmid = {32374105}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Environmental Exposure ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Italy ; }, }
@article {pmid32373748, year = {2020}, author = {Marie, M and Yirga, F and Haile, M and Tquabo, F}, title = {Farmers' choices and factors affecting adoption of climate change adaptation strategies: evidence from northwestern Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {e03867}, pmid = {32373748}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change is a major environmental and socioeconomic challenge in Ethiopia in recent decades. The study site is one of the climate change prone areas affected by climate variability and extreme events. Therefore, a better understanding of area-specific and adaptation is crucial to develop and implement proper adaptation strategies that can alleviate the adverse effects of climate change. Therefore, this work was aimed to identify determinants of farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation strategies in Gondar Zuria District of northwestern Ethiopia. Primary data were collected through semi-structured questionnaires, observation, and interviews. Besides, the secondary data were also obtained from journal articles, reports, governmental offices, and the internet. The Multinomial and Binary logistic regression models with the help of the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) (21[th] edition) were used to analyze the data. The multinomial logistic regression model was used to estimate the influence of the socioeconomic characteristics of sample households on the farmer's decision to choose climate change adaptation strategies. The result showed that age, gender, family size, farm income, and farm size had a significant influence on the farmers' choice of climate change adaptation strategies. The result also revealed that crop failure, severe soil erosion and shortages of water are major climate change-related problems than others. In order to alleviate these problems, farmers have implemented mixed farming, mixed cropping, early and late planting (changing sowing period), use of drought-resistant crop varieties, application of soil and water conservation techniques, shifting to non-farm income activities and use of irrigation. In contrast, access to climate information, total annual farm income, and market access variables are significant adoption determinants of climate change adaptation strategies by farmers' in the study site. Therefore, we recommend future adaptation-related plans should focus on improving climate change information access, improving market access and enhancing research on the use of rainwater harvesting technology.}, }
@article {pmid32372355, year = {2020}, author = {Cheng, B and Li, H}, title = {Impact of climate change and human activities on economic values produced by ecosystem service functions of rivers in water shortage area of Northwest China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {21}, pages = {26570-26578}, pmid = {32372355}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {Grant No.51939009//National Natural Science Foundation of China (Key Program)/ ; }, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Human Activities ; *Rivers ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change and human activities are affecting the ecological health of rivers and the economic value of its ecosystem services. Taking water quantity as the intermediate variable, we proposed a quantitative calculation method for the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers. The framework mainly consists of three steps: firstly, we quantitatively determined the changes in the amount of water coming from rivers due to climate change and human activities; secondly, combining the theory of resource and environmental economics to calculate the economic value generated by ecological service functions of rivers; finally, we quantitatively identified and analyzed the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers. Taking Baoji section of Weihe River (BSWR) as an example, we quantitatively analyzed and calculated the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by ecosystem service functions of rivers. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: in recent 52 years, the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers decreased by 3.57 billion yuan due to the climate change and human activities; the total economic value has been reduced by an average of 68 million yuan per year. This useful work can not only reveal the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value of ecosystem services of rivers but also can provide an important basis for the reasonable management model of water resource of ecosystem of rivers watershed.}, }
@article {pmid32371277, year = {2020}, author = {Grefalda, LB and Pulhin, JM and Tapia, MA and Anacio, DB and De Luna, CC and Sabino, LL and Garcia, JE and Peria, AS and Peras, RJJ and Gevaña, DT and Inoue, M}, title = {Building institutional resilience in the context of climate change in Aurora, Philippines.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {186}, number = {}, pages = {109584}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109584}, pmid = {32371277}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Philippines ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {The role of local government units (LGUs) in disaster resilience is crucial for a hazard-prone country such as the Philippines. Although the country has its own institutional framework on disaster risk reduction, a number of issues limit LGUs' potential to perform its role. This study focused on building institutional resilience of LGUs towards building climate risk resilience in Aurora, Philippines by engaging key actors in the formulation of Local Climate Change Action Plans (LCCAP). The study adopted the shared learning process from the Climate Resilience Framework (CRF) to strengthen partnership and implement capacity building activities, aimed at developing the Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA) and LCCAP beyond compliance. An institutional capacity assessment was administered through a survey involving 87 members of the Technical Working Group (TWG) from eight municipalities and provincial government. Institutional capacity was measured using 70 indicators representing access rights and entitlements, information flows, decision-making processes, application of new knowledge, capacity to anticipate risk, capacity to respond, as well as capacity to recover and change. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Both Spearman Correlation and Cramer's V determined the interrelationship between socio-demographic variables and institutional characteristics. Results revealed that the LGUs performed better in risk response and management. A strong correlation between expertise and position vis-à-vis all resilient institution metrics was also observed, while gender is moderately correlated with all parameters except access rights and entitlements. Three key areas, not adequately articulated in current literature, need to be improved to enhance institutional resilience towards climate and disaster risks, namely: staffing and human resource; access to financial support from other sources; and development of knowledge management systems.}, }
@article {pmid32369490, year = {2020}, author = {García-Gómez, JC and González, AR and Maestre, MJ and Espinosa, F}, title = {Detect coastal disturbances and climate change effects in coralligenous community through sentinel stations.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e0231641}, pmid = {32369490}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; Biota ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/*instrumentation ; Ecosystem ; Gibraltar ; }, abstract = {This study was implemented to assess the Sessile Bioindicators in Permanent Quadrats (SBPQ) underwater environmental alert method. The SBPQ is a non-invasive and low-cost protocol; it uses sessile target species (indicators) to detect environmental alterations (natural or anthropic) at either the local or global (i.e., climate change) scale and the intrusion of invasive species. The SBPQ focuses on the monitoring of preselected sessile and sensitive benthic species associated with rocky coralligenous habitats using permanent quadrats in underwater sentinel stations. The selected target species have been well documented as bioindicators that disappear in the absence of environmental stability. However, whether these species are good indicators of stability or, in contrast, suffer variations in long-term coverage has not been verified. The purpose of this study was to assess the part of the method based on the hypothesis that, over a long temporal series in a highly structured and biodiverse coralligenous assemblage, the cover of sensitive sessile species does not change over time if the environmental stability characterising the habitat is not altered. Over a ten-year period (2005-2014), the sublittoral sessile biota in the Straits of Gibraltar Natural Park on the southern Iberian Peninsula was monitored at a 28 m-deep underwater sentinel stations. Analyses of the coverages of target indicator species (i.e., Paramuricea clavata and Astroides calycularis) together with other accompanying sessile organisms based on the periodic superimposition of gridded images from horizontal and vertical rocky surfaces allowed us to assess the effectiveness of the method. We conclude that no alterations occurred during the study period; only minimal fluctuations in cover were detected, and the method is reliable for detecting biological changes in ecosystems found in other geographical areas containing the chosen indicator species at similar dominance levels.}, }
@article {pmid32368509, year = {2020}, author = {Cradock-Henry, NA and Connolly, J and Blackett, P and Lawrence, J}, title = {Elaborating a systems methodology for cascading climate change impacts and implications.}, journal = {MethodsX}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {100893}, pmid = {32368509}, issn = {2215-0161}, abstract = {New research is drawing attention to the potential for climate change to generate cascading impacts and implications across linked human-environment systems, requiring closer accounting of these interactions to anticipate the emergence of surprises and feedbacks. However, there is little practical guidance for those interested in characterising, identifying or assessing cascades, and few empirical examples. In this paper, we elaborate a systems-based methodology to identify and evaluate cascading climate change impacts and implications. We illustrate its application using the case of a participatory process with urban infrastructure managers, facing the legacy effects of damaging earthquakes and the prospect of future climate change. The results show the proposed approach and visualisation of cascades as causal diagrams provides a robust and flexible analytical framework. The use of systems thinking, visual aids, interactive discussion and expert elicitation generated valuable information about potential cascades, their interactions across domains of interest, and the implications for management. The process can provide a basis for further empirical application and advance methodological and conceptual development. Specifically, the systems methodology:•Identifies interdependencies and interconnections which may serve as transmission pathways for climate-related impacts;•Enhanced stakeholders' understanding of multiple causes and effects of climate change; and•Produced a useful visual aid for stakeholders to explore cascading impacts and implications, and opportunities for intervention.}, }
@article {pmid32367239, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, C and Jin, J and Kuang, F and Ning, J and Wan, X and Guan, T}, title = {Farmers' perceptions of climate change and adaptation behavior in Wushen Banner, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {21}, pages = {26484-26494}, pmid = {32367239}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {41671170//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Farms ; Humans ; }, abstract = {A better understanding of farmers' perceptions of and responses to climate change is important for decision-makers to design more effective adaptation policies. This study investigates farmers' perceptions of climate change, actual adaption responses at the farm level, and factors influencing farmers' decisions on climate change adaptation in Wushen Banner, China. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 220 farmers with a random sampling technique. We found that farmers were generally concerned about climate change. Most farmers have adopted adaption measures to address the adverse effects of climate change. Adjusting farming behavior and using financial means were the main adaptation measures used by local farmers. The results revealed that the implementation of adaptation measures was constrained by the lack of technology, shortage of money, and poor infrastructure. The binary logistic regression results showed that farmers' socioeconomic characteristics, such as education, farming experience, and gender, had significant impacts on farmers' decisions to choose adaptation strategies. The regression results also indicated that farmers who believed climate change would affect their health were more willing to choose financial instruments, and farmers who believed climate change would affect their agricultural productions were likely to diversify their livelihoods. The findings provide some critical insights based on local perceptions of climate change and enhance our understanding of cognitive beliefs attached to adaptive responses.}, }
@article {pmid32366920, year = {2020}, author = {Louppe, V and Leroy, B and Herrel, A and Veron, G}, title = {The globally invasive small Indian mongoose Urva auropunctata is likely to spread with climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7461}, pmid = {32366920}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Europe, Eastern ; Herpestidae/*physiology ; Introduced Species ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Invasive alien species represent one of the major factors of global loss of biodiversity and disruption of natural ecosystems. The small Indian mongoose, Urva auropunctata, is considered one of the wild carnivore species with the greatest negative impact on global biodiversity. Understanding of the factors underpinning the species' distribution and potential dispersion in a context of climate change thus appears crucial in the conservation of native ecosystems. Here we modelled the current and future climatically favourable areas for the small Indian mongoose using Ecological Niche Modelling based on data sets filtrated in environmental spaces. Projections from these models show extensive current favourable geographical areas, covering continental and insular regions within tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. Moreover, predictions for 2050 reveal that climate change is likely to expand current favourable areas north of the current favourable spaces, particularly in Eastern Europe. This climate-induced expansion is particularly worrisome given that the species is already spreading in the Balkan region. Our projections suggest that it is very likely that the small Indian mongoose will have an increasing influence on ecosystems and biodiversity in Europe by 2050.}, }
@article {pmid32364720, year = {2020}, author = {Bidleman, TF and Andersson, A and Haglund, P and Tysklind, M}, title = {Will Climate Change Influence Production and Environmental Pathways of Halogenated Natural Products?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {54}, number = {11}, pages = {6468-6485}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b07709}, pmid = {32364720}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Products ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Thousands of halogenated natural products (HNPs) pervade the terrestrial and marine environment. HNPs are generated by biotic and abiotic processes and range in complexity from low molecular mass natural halocarbons (nHCs, mostly halomethanes and haloethanes) to compounds of higher molecular mass which often contain oxygen and/or nitrogen atoms in addition to halogens (hHNPs). nHCs have a key role in regulating tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, while some hHNPs bioaccumulate and have toxic properties similar those of anthropogenic-persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Both chemical classes have common sources: biosynthesis by marine bacteria, phytoplankton, macroalgae, and some invertebrate animals, and both may be similarly impacted by alteration of production and transport pathways in a changing climate. The nHCs scientific community is advanced in investigating sources, atmospheric and oceanic transport, and forecasting climate change impacts through modeling. By contrast, these activities are nascent or nonexistent for hHNPs. The goals of this paper are to (1) review production, sources, distribution, and transport pathways of nHCs and hHNPs through water and air, pointing out areas of commonality, (2) by analogy to nHCs, argue that climate change may alter these factors for hHNPs, and (3) suggest steps to improve linkage between nHCs and hHNPs science to better understand and predict climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid32364555, year = {2020}, author = {Bernhard, GH and Neale, RE and Barnes, PW and Neale, PJ and Zepp, RG and Wilson, SR and Andrady, AL and Bais, AF and McKenzie, RL and Aucamp, PJ and Young, PJ and Liley, JB and Lucas, RM and Yazar, S and Rhodes, LE and Byrne, SN and Hollestein, LM and Olsen, CM and Young, AR and Robson, TM and Bornman, JF and Jansen, MAK and Robinson, SA and Ballaré, CL and Williamson, CE and Rose, KC and Banaszak, AT and Häder, D- and Hylander, S and Wängberg, S- and Austin, AT and Hou, W- and Paul, ND and Madronich, S and Sulzberger, B and Solomon, KR and Li, H and Schikowski, T and Longstreth, J and Pandey, KK and Heikkilä, AM and White, CC}, title = {Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2019.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {542-584}, pmid = {32364555}, issn = {1474-9092}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; Microplastics ; *Stratospheric Ozone ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {This assessment, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), one of three Panels informing the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, provides an update, since our previous extensive assessment (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2019, 18, 595-828), of recent findings of current and projected interactive environmental effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, stratospheric ozone, and climate change. These effects include those on human health, air quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and materials used in construction and other services. The present update evaluates further evidence of the consequences of human activity on climate change that are altering the exposure of organisms and ecosystems to UV radiation. This in turn reveals the interactive effects of many climate change factors with UV radiation that have implications for the atmosphere, feedbacks, contaminant fate and transport, organismal responses, and many outdoor materials including plastics, wood, and fabrics. The universal ratification of the Montreal Protocol, signed by 197 countries, has led to the regulation and phase-out of chemicals that deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. Although this treaty has had unprecedented success in protecting the ozone layer, and hence all life on Earth from damaging UV radiation, it is also making a substantial contribution to reducing climate warming because many of the chemicals under this treaty are greenhouse gases.}, }
@article {pmid32364132, year = {2020}, author = {Li, C and Gu, H}, title = {Climate change and mortality evolution in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {267}, number = {}, pages = {110622}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110622}, pmid = {32364132}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Hot Temperature ; Mortality ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {This paper explores the historical relationship between weather fluctuations and mortality evolution in China. Using panel data on the annual provincial mortality rate and daily weather variables for the 1964-2008 period, we applied a dynamic model structure with sufficient controls to estimate the short-term effects of temperature shocks on China's mortality rate. Our main results show that an additional 1 °C rise in average temperature in a given year increases the annual mortality rate by an average of 3.2%. In addition, days with daily average temperatures exceeding 27 °C (30 °C) are associated with an increase in the annual mortality rate of nearly 0.1% (0.2%) or approximately 9,520 (19,040) additional deaths. In contrast, extremely cold days do not have these effects. By applying a hybrid model structure (the long difference approach) to examine the medium-term effects of temperature changes, we find that there is little evidence of overall adaptation to high temperatures when moving from the short term to the medium term. In addition, by introducing interactions between temperatures and potential modifiers such as access to doctors, hospital beds, air conditioning and refrigerators, we determined that only residential air conditioning played an important role in mitigating the temperature-mortality relationship. However, the penetration of air conditioning in China is still relatively low. These findings indicate that climate change could partially explain the historical phenomenon of China's rising mortality rate during the unprecedented economic boom experienced since the 1980s.}, }
@article {pmid32361360, year = {2020}, author = {Aboubakri, O and Khanjani, N and Jahani, Y and Bakhtiari, B and Mesgari, E}, title = {Projection of mortality attributed to heat and cold; the impact of climate change in a dry region of Iran, Kerman.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {728}, number = {}, pages = {138700}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138700}, pmid = {32361360}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Iran ; Mortality ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Estimating the effects of climate change on human health can help health policy makers plan for the future. In Iran, there are few studies, about investigating the effects of climate change on mortality. This study aimed to project the effect of low (cold) and high (heat) temperature on mortality in a dry region of Iran, Kerman.<br><br>METHODS: Mortality attributed to temperature was projected by estimating the temperature-mortality relation for the observed data, projection of future temperatures by the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and quantifying the attributable fraction by applying the observed temperature-mortality relation on the projected temperature. Climate change projection was done by three climate scenarios base on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Adaptation was considered by using different minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) and risk reduction approaches. The current decade (2010-19) was considered as the reference period.<br><br>RESULTS: All three climate change scenarios, showed that the mean of temperature will rise about 1&#xa0;&#xb0;C, by 2050 in Kerman. The number of deaths attributed to heat were obviously higher than cold in all periods. Assuming no adaptation, over 3700 deaths attributed to temperature will happen in each decade (2020s, 2030s and 2040s) in the future, in which over 3000 deaths will be due to heat and over 450 due to cold. In the predictions, as Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT) went up, the contribution of heat to mortality slightly decreased, and cold temperature played a more important role. By considering the risk reduction due to adaptation, the contribution of heat in mortality slightly and insignificantly decreased.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results showed that although low temperatures will contribute to temperature-related mortality in the future, but heat will be a stronger risk factor for mortality, especially if adaptation is low.}, }
@article {pmid32361258, year = {2020}, author = {Okwala, T and Shrestha, S and Ghimire, S and Mohanasundaram, S and Datta, A}, title = {Assessment of climate change impacts on water balance and hydrological extremes in Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri river basin, Thailand.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {186}, number = {}, pages = {109544}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109544}, pmid = {32361258}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Floods ; *Hydrology ; *Rivers ; Thailand ; }, abstract = {Among many factors the hydrology of a watershed is mainly influenced by climate and land use change. This study examined the impacts of climate change on water resources and extreme events in the Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri River Basin, Thailand using three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ACCESS1-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM, and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the future streamflow and Extreme Value Type I distribution (EVI) was used to analyze the extreme events under projected climate conditions. The result of this study showed an increase in maximum (1.9 °C/3.6 °C) and minimum (1.6 °C/3.3 °C) temperatures under RCP4.5/8.5 at the end of the 21st century. In addition, projected rainfall is expected to decrease up to 6.8% (8.5%) in 2050s and then increase slowly such that the decrement remains 4.2% (11.0%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) at the end of the century. The rainfall pattern is projected to considerably fluctuate, in particular, a shift in long term average annual peak event from September to August is predicted in 2080s under emission scenario RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). On the other hand, the average annual discharge is expected to increase up to 13.5% (2020s) and 7.6% (2050s) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively with decreasing trend in low flows and increasing trend in high flows. Further analysis on extreme events; strengthened the results from hydrological modeling with an increase in flow volume for the same return period under changed climate conditions. This raises water resources management issues in the Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri River Basin regarding the frequency of flood and drought events in the future calling for proper policy formulation and implementation.}, }
@article {pmid32359156, year = {2021}, author = {Eastwood, MA}, title = {Global warming and the laws of nature.}, journal = {QJM : monthly journal of the Association of Physicians}, volume = {114}, number = {4}, pages = {227-228}, doi = {10.1093/qjmed/hcaa152}, pmid = {32359156}, issn = {1460-2393}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32358990, year = {2020}, author = {Brice, MH and Vissault, S and Vieira, W and Gravel, D and Legendre, P and Fortin, MJ}, title = {Moderate disturbances accelerate forest transition dynamics under climate change in the temperate-boreal ecotone of eastern North America.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {8}, pages = {4418-4435}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15143}, pmid = {32358990}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {5134//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/International ; 7738//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/International ; }, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Quebec ; }, abstract = {Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonize boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non-climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest inventory plots, sampled from 1970 to 2018 in meridional Québec, Canada, to identify what environmental conditions promote or prevent regional-scale forest transitions. We used a continuous-time multi-state Markov model to quantify the probabilities of transitions between forest states (temperate, boreal, mixed, pioneer) as a function of climate (mean temperature and climate moisture index during the growing season), soil conditions (pH and drainage) and disturbances (severity levels of natural disturbances and logging). We further investigate how different disturbance types and severities impact forests' short-term transient dynamics and long-term equilibrium using properties of Markov transition matrices. The most common transitions observed during the study period were from mixed to temperate states, as well as from pioneer to boreal forests. In our study, transitions were mainly driven by natural and anthropogenic disturbances and secondarily by climate, whereas soil characteristics exerted relatively minor constraints. While major disturbances only promoted transitions to the pioneer state, moderate disturbances increased the probability of transition from mixed to temperate states. Long-term projections of our model under the current environmental conditions indicate that moderate disturbances would promote a northward shift of the temperate forest. Moreover, disturbances reduced turnover and convergence time for all transitions, thereby accelerating forest dynamics. Contrary to our expectation, mixed to temperate transitions were not driven by temperate tree recruitment but by mortality and growth. Overall, our results suggest that moderate disturbances could catalyse rapid forest transitions and accelerate broad-scale biome shifts.}, }
@article {pmid32358588, year = {2020}, author = {Iwamura, T and Guzman-Holst, A and Murray, KA}, title = {Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2130}, pmid = {32358588}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {MR/R015600/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Aedes/*physiology ; Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Mosquito Vectors/*physiology ; North America ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950-2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2-4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector's global invasion potential.}, }
@article {pmid32357890, year = {2020}, author = {Ryan, SJ and Lippi, CA and Zermoglio, F}, title = {Shifting transmission risk for malaria in Africa with climate change: a framework for planning and intervention.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {170}, pmid = {32357890}, issn = {1475-2875}, mesh = {Africa, Central ; Africa, Eastern ; Africa, Southern ; Africa, Western ; Animals ; Anopheles/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Malaria, Falciparum/*transmission ; Models, Theoretical ; Mosquito Vectors/*physiology ; Plasmodium falciparum/*physiology ; Risk ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a disease of massive burden in Africa, and the public health resources targeted at surveillance, prevention, control, and intervention comprise large outlays of expense. Malaria transmission is largely constrained by the suitability of the climate for Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium parasite development. Thus, as climate changes, shifts in geographic locations suitable for transmission, and differing lengths of seasons of suitability will occur, which will require changes in the types and amounts of resources.<br><br>METHODS: The shifting geographic risk of malaria transmission was mapped, in context of changing seasonality (i.e. endemic to epidemic, and vice versa), and the number of people affected. A published temperature-dependent model of malaria transmission suitability was applied to continental gridded climate data for multiple future AR5 climate model projections. The resulting outcomes were aligned with programmatic needs to provide summaries at national and regional scales for the African continent. Model outcomes were combined with population projections to estimate the population at risk at three points in the future, 2030, 2050, and 2080, under two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).<br><br>RESULTS: Estimated geographic shifts in endemic and seasonal suitability for malaria transmission were observed across all future scenarios of climate change. The worst-case regional scenario (RCP8.5) of climate change predicted an additional 75.9 million people at risk from endemic (10-12&#xa0;months) exposure to malaria transmission in Eastern and Southern Africa by the year 2080, with the greatest population at risk in Eastern Africa. Despite a predominance of reduction in season length, a net gain of 51.3 million additional people is predicted be put at some level of risk in Western Africa by midcentury.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an updated view of potential malaria geographic shifts in Africa under climate change for the more recent climate model projections (AR5), and a tool for aligning findings with programmatic needs at key scales for decision-makers. In describing shifting seasonality, it was possible to capture transitions between endemic and epidemic risk areas, to facilitate the planning for interventions aimed at year-round risk versus anticipatory surveillance and rapid response to potential outbreak locations.}, }
@article {pmid32353287, year = {2020}, author = {Ingle, HE and Mikulewicz, M}, title = {Mental health and climate change: tackling invisible injustice.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {e128-e130}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30081-4}, pmid = {32353287}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Mental Health ; *Climate Change ; Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid32350458, year = {2020}, author = {Rocklöv, J and Dubrow, R}, title = {Author Correction: Climate change: an enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control.}, journal = {Nature immunology}, volume = {21}, number = {6}, pages = {695}, doi = {10.1038/s41590-020-0692-7}, pmid = {32350458}, issn = {1529-2916}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32350402, year = {2020}, author = {Lori, M and Piton, G and Symanczik, S and Legay, N and Brussaard, L and Jaenicke, S and Nascimento, E and Reis, F and Sousa, JP and Mäder, P and Gattinger, A and Clément, JC and Foulquier, A}, title = {Compared to conventional, ecological intensive management promotes beneficial proteolytic soil microbial communities for agro-ecosystem functioning under climate change-induced rain regimes.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7296}, pmid = {32350402}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Microbiota/*physiology ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; *Rain ; *Soil ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Projected climate change and rainfall variability will affect soil microbial communities, biogeochemical cycling and agriculture. Nitrogen (N) is the most limiting nutrient in agroecosystems and its cycling and availability is highly dependent on microbial driven processes. In agroecosystems, hydrolysis of organic nitrogen (N) is an important step in controlling soil N availability. We analyzed the effect of management (ecological intensive vs. conventional intensive) on N-cycling processes and involved microbial communities under climate change-induced rain regimes. Terrestrial model ecosystems originating from agroecosystems across Europe were subjected to four different rain regimes for 263 days. Using structural equation modelling we identified direct impacts of rain regimes on N-cycling processes, whereas N-related microbial communities were more resistant. In addition to rain regimes, management indirectly affected N-cycling processes via modifications of N-related microbial community composition. Ecological intensive management promoted a beneficial N-related microbial community composition involved in N-cycling processes under climate change-induced rain regimes. Exploratory analyses identified phosphorus-associated litter properties as possible drivers for the observed management effects on N-related microbial community composition. This work provides novel insights into mechanisms controlling agro-ecosystem functioning under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32350377, year = {2020}, author = {Vetter, SG and Puskas, Z and Bieber, C and Ruf, T}, title = {How climate change and wildlife management affect population structure in wild boars.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7298}, pmid = {32350377}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild/*physiology ; Body Weight ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Litter Size ; Male ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Sus scrofa/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Global climate change affects many species and contributes to the exceptional population growth of wild boar populations and thus to increasing human-wildlife conflicts. To investigate the impact of climate change on wild boar populations we extended existing models on population dynamics. We included for the first time different juvenile conditions to account for long-lasting effects of juvenile body mass on adult body mass and reproductive success. Our analysis shows that incorporating phenotypes, like body mass differences within age classes, has strong effects on projected population growth rates, population structures and the relative importance of certain vital rates. Our models indicated that an increase in winter temperatures and food availability will cause a decrease in mean body mass and litter size within Central European wild boar populations. We further analysed different hunting regimes to identify their effects on the population structure as well as their efficiency in limiting population growth. While targeting juveniles had the lowest effect on population structure, such strategies are, however, rather ineffective. In contrast, culling predominantly yearlings seems very effective. Despite being equally effective, only focusing on adults will not result in a reduction of population size due to their low proportion within populations.}, }
@article {pmid32350339, year = {2020}, author = {Kusunoki, S and Ose, T and Hosaka, M}, title = {Author Correction: Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7454}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-63945-1}, pmid = {32350339}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32350294, year = {2020}, author = {Marcelino, J and Silva, JP and Gameiro, J and Silva, A and Rego, FC and Moreira, F and Catry, I}, title = {Extreme events are more likely to affect the breeding success of lesser kestrels than average climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7207}, pmid = {32350294}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. In Southern Europe, within the Mediterranean climate, herbaceous vegetation achieves its maximum growth in middle spring followed by a three-month dry summer, limiting prey availability for insectivorous birds. Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breed in a time-window that matches the nestling-rearing period with the peak abundance of grasshoppers and forecasted climate change may impact reproductive success through changes in prey availability and abundance. We used Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality and prey availability to investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change and extreme climatic events on lesser kestrel breeding performance. First, using 14 years of data from 15 colonies in Southwestern Iberia, we linked fledging success and climatic variables with NDVI, and secondly, based on these relationships and according to climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2070, forecasted NDVI and fledging success. Finally, we evaluated how fledging success was influenced by drought events since 2004. Despite predicting a decrease in vegetation greenness in lesser kestrel foraging areas during spring, we found no impacts of predicted gradual rise in temperature and decline in precipitation on their fledging success. Notwithstanding, we found a decrease of 12% in offspring survival associated with drought events, suggesting that a higher frequency of droughts might, in the future, jeopardize the recent recovery of the European population. Here, we show that extreme events, such as droughts, can have more significant impacts on species than gradual climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity and climate change hotspot.}, }
@article {pmid32347994, year = {2020}, author = {Meynard, CN and Lecoq, M and Chapuis, MP and Piou, C}, title = {On the relative role of climate change and management in the current desert locust outbreak in East Africa.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {3753-3755}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15137}, pmid = {32347994}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Africa ; Africa, Eastern ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Grasshoppers ; }, abstract = {While large-scale monitoring, early detection and control can greatly reduce desert locust invasions, global change is most likely to affect conditions that promote the transition from solitary to gregarious populations. Although climate change scenarios point to an increase in aridity and further desertification in vast areas of Africa, some regions that have been at the origin of past outbreaks are likely to see a reversed trend (i.e., increase in frequency and intensity of rains), potentially favoring the formation of swarms. This makes reinforcing early detection and keeping a sustained monitoring effort in place even more important under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32347914, year = {2020}, author = {Malaspina, D and Howell, EA and Spicer, J}, title = {Intergenerational Echoes of Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA psychiatry}, volume = {77}, number = {8}, pages = {778-780}, doi = {10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2020.0604}, pmid = {32347914}, issn = {2168-6238}, support = {R00 HD079668/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R01 MH110418/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; R01 HD078565/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Neurodevelopmental Disorders/*etiology ; Pregnancy ; Premature Birth/*etiology ; Prenatal Exposure Delayed Effects/*etiology ; Schizophrenia/*etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid32347501, year = {2020}, author = {Shaffril, HAM and Idris, K and Sahharon, H and Samah, AA and Samah, BA}, title = {Adaptation towards climate change impacts among highland farmers in Malaysia.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {20}, pages = {25209-25219}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08987-8}, pmid = {32347501}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {05-01-15-1755FR//Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia/ ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Female ; Humans ; Malaysia ; }, abstract = {This study aims to gain more understanding on highland farmers' adaptation towards the impacts of climate change in Malaysia. Via a multi-stage cluster sampling, this quantitative study has surveyed a total of 400 highland farmers as respondents. The results indicated that the highest climate change-resilient farmers were from Kundasang, specifically among the females, Dusun ethnic group, and those who work side jobs to cover household expenses. Furthermore, recorded factors such as age and years of experience yielded significant negative relationship with adaptation whereas income yielded significant positive relationship with adaptation. The paper concludes with recommendations related to occupational diversification, consistent information disseminations, access to financial assistance, and the need to empower extension officers and local leaders in the hope that a comprehensive approach can help implement any community climate change-adaptation plan.}, }
@article {pmid32346776, year = {2020}, author = {Koch, S and Pecher, S}, title = {[New challenges for anesthesia due to the climate change].}, journal = {Der Anaesthesist}, volume = {69}, number = {7}, pages = {453-462}, doi = {10.1007/s00101-020-00770-1}, pmid = {32346776}, issn = {1432-055X}, mesh = {Anesthesia ; Anesthesiology/*trends ; Anesthetics, Inhalation/therapeutic use ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Renewable Energy ; Waste Management ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The climate crisis is the most serious threat to global health in the twenty-first century. In western countries 5-10% of all greenhouse gas emissions originate from the healthcare sector and the main contributing factors are energy-intense departments (intensive care units, operating suits and prehospital emergency services).<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The aim of this review is to provide background knowledge and practical ideas to achieve climate-neutral hospitals.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: Narrative review with information on the topics of (I)&#xa0;volatile anesthetics as greenhouse gases, (II)&#xa0;energy supply in hospitals and (III)&#xa0;solid waste management.<br><br>RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: (I)&#xa0;Volatile anesthetics are highly potent greenhouse gases, especially desflurane has a&#xa0;major global warming potential. Total intravenous anesthesia (TIVA) with propofol or regional anesthetic techniques have a much lower impact on the climate. (II)&#xa0;Using sustainable energy sources as well as initiating energy sparing techniques, such as light-emitting diodes (LED) and motion sensors, can reduce CO2 emissions. (III)&#xa0;Waste can be managed by the reduce, reuse, recycle, rethink and research concept. Doctors should actively contribute to reach the climate goals.}, }
@article {pmid32346388, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, Z and Yang, Z and Fahad, S and Zhang, T and Xu, W and Cui, K and Peng, S and Huang, J}, title = {A hot-blast warming facility for simulating global warming in low-stature crop systems and its application case to assess elevated temperature effects on rice in Central China.}, journal = {Plant methods}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {57}, pmid = {32346388}, issn = {1746-4811}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: To study the impact of climate warming on crops, it is crucial to have a warming equipment suitable for their field environment. A facility is needed that can provide suitable combinations of different temperatures at reasonable cost for large plots.<br><br>RESULTS: Here, an additional field warming facility option named the hot-blast warming facility (HBWF), which comprised heaters, blowers, wind breaks, and a control board was developed. An application case based on HBWF was carried out to assess elevated temperature effects on rice in Central China during 2015 and 2016. We tested four elevated temperature treatments on four rice cultivars under paddy field conditions and measured yield and its components. Heating convection air directly, the facility could increase the temperature of the rice canopy up to 1-2 &#xb0;C, which could properly simulate global warming. Considering the costs, the HBWF reduced the operating costs because of its relatively lower power consumption (0.164 kW/m[2]), which was 80% lower than that of Free Air Temperature Increase. Our results demonstrate that the HBWF could build a 25 m[2] homogeneous heating area and had little effect on the relative humidity under a paddy field environment. Warming treatments significantly reduced the grain yield by 4.4-22.7% in 2015, and 30.8-61.9% in 2016, compared to the control. The main contribution to the significant decrease of the grain yields was the decrease in seed setting rate. Moreover, a reduction of 1000-grain weight led to the decline in grain yield. The increasing ranges of the temperature simulated by HBWF were stable in different years, however, whether the elevated treatments demonstrated significant difference on rice growth mainly decided by the basic atmospheric temperature (as the control) during the growth period.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The new warming facility is suitable for field trials to assess elevated temperature combinations and provides an extra equipment option for use in elevated temperature research in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32345877, year = {2020}, author = {Young, JD}, title = {Environmental Amnesia: Climate Change and Medical Education.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {95}, number = {5}, pages = {667-668}, doi = {10.1097/ACM.0000000000003184}, pmid = {32345877}, issn = {1938-808X}, mesh = {Amnesia ; Climate Change ; Curriculum ; *Education, Medical ; Humans ; *Schools, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid32344223, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, L and Zhang, Z and Luo, Y and Cao, J and Li, Z}, title = {Optimizing genotype-environment-management interactions for maize farmers to adapt to climate change in different agro-ecological zones across China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {728}, number = {}, pages = {138614}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138614}, pmid = {32344223}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Genotype ; Humans ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Crop growth conditions are being altered by ongoing climate change and the agronomic management practices should be adjusted accordingly and timely. In Chinese Maize Belt, climate change impacts are always compounded by agronomic management and the regional differences have yet to be well understood. How local farmers adapt to climate change is a big challenge and related adaptive strategies are urgently required. Based on detailed field experiments performed for >15 years, we applied the CERES-Maize model to disentangle the impacts of individual climate variables, quantify the contributions of three low-cost measures (cultivar, sowing date, and planting density) to yield variations, and design effective adaptation options in each zone. We found the patterns and impacts of climate change varied among the cultivated areas: yield increased by 0.39% per year in Northeast China (NEC) and 0.78% in the northwestern arid area (NWA) but decreased by 1.13% in the North China Plain (NCP). The results highlighted the considerable impacts of increased minimum temperature and decreased solar radiation on the changes of maize yield. CERES-Maize model reproduced the phenology and yield well with <9% bias and >81% yield explanation ability. The simulation results suggested that an appropriate delay in sowing date could mitigate climatic negative effects and enhance maize yields significantly. Planting cultivars of Nongda108 in NEC, Zhengdan958 in the NCP, and Shendan10 in the NWA substantially increased yield compared with planting the cultivars most widely used by farmers. The optimal planting density were 11.4, 12.3, and 12.7 plants/m[2] respectively, which were generally higher than the local common levels. By optimizing genotype (G)-environment (E)-management (M) interactions, maize yield can be enhanced by at least 10%, especially in the NWA, implying that efforts to increase food production should be made in low-yielding zones. This study illustrated the patterns of climate change in different zones, and demonstrated an effective approach to develop sustainable intensification options and improve yield and stability with fewer economic-environmental costs by optimizing G × E × M interactions in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32343630, year = {2021}, author = {Zadkovic, S and Lombardo, N and Cole, DC}, title = {Breastfeeding and Climate Change: Overlapping Vulnerabilities and Integrating Responses.}, journal = {Journal of human lactation : official journal of International Lactation Consultant Association}, volume = {37}, number = {2}, pages = {323-330}, doi = {10.1177/0890334420920223}, pmid = {32343630}, issn = {1552-5732}, mesh = {*Breast Feeding ; Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Infant Formula ; *Milk Substitutes ; }, }
@article {pmid32341394, year = {2020}, author = {Bezeng, BS and Yessoufou, K and Taylor, PJ and Tesfamichael, SG}, title = {Expected spatial patterns of alien woody plants in South Africa's protected areas under current scenario of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {7038}, pmid = {32341394}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Although protected areas (PAs) are declared to provide sanctuaries for biodiversity, they are increasingly threatened by the synergistic effects of anthropic factors, invasive alien species and climate change. Consequently, interventions are required to minimize the impacts of these threats on PAs' integrity. To inform these interventions in the South African context and under the current climate change scenario, we tested for geographic patterns of alien woody species across the network of 1,453 PAs using three alien invasion indices - alien species abundance, invaded area ratio and alien species richness. Our analysis shows that, under current climate change scenario, none of the PAs would be effective in shielding against alien plants and PAs that are geographically close tend to share similar invasion patterns. In addition, PAs that are hotspots of alien species are also geographically clustered but these findings are biome-dependent. Our outlier analysis reveals not only an island of disproportionately rich PAs in alien species, but also identifies some alien-poor PAs. We suggest that PAs that are hotspots of alien species as well as outliers of disproportionately rich PAs in alien species should be priority in monitoring and invasion control programmes in the context of the ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32339294, year = {2021}, author = {Tiwari, R and Gloor, E and da Cruz, WJA and Schwantes Marimon, B and Marimon-Junior, BH and Reis, SM and de Souza, IA and Krause, HG and Slot, M and Winter, K and Ashley, D and Béu, RG and Borges, CS and Da Cunha, M and Fauset, S and Ferreira, LDS and Gonçalves, MDA and Lopes, TT and Marques, EQ and Mendonça, NG and Mendonça, NG and Noleto, PT and de Oliveira, CHL and Oliveira, MA and Pireda, S and Dos Santos Prestes, NCC and Santos, DM and Santos, EB and da Silva, ELS and de Souza, IA and de Souza, LJ and Vitória, AP and Foyer, CH and Galbraith, D}, title = {Photosynthetic quantum efficiency in south-eastern Amazonian trees may be already affected by climate change.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {44}, number = {7}, pages = {2428-2439}, doi = {10.1111/pce.13770}, pmid = {32339294}, issn = {1365-3040}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Photosynthesis/*physiology ; Photosystem II Protein Complex/metabolism ; Plant Leaves/*physiology ; Rainforest ; Thermotolerance/*physiology ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Tropical forests are experiencing unprecedented high-temperature conditions due to climate change that could limit their photosynthetic functions. We studied the high-temperature sensitivity of photosynthesis in a rainforest site in southern Amazonia, where some of the highest temperatures and most rapid warming in the Tropics have been recorded. The quantum yield (Fv /Fm) of photosystem II was measured in seven dominant tree species using leaf discs exposed to varying levels of heat stress. T50 was calculated as the temperature at which Fv /Fm was half the maximum value. T5 is defined as the breakpoint temperature, at which Fv /Fm decline was initiated. Leaf thermotolerance in the rapidly warming southern Amazonia was the highest recorded for forest tree species globally. T50 and T5 varied between species, with one mid-storey species, Amaioua guianensis, exhibiting particularly high T50 and T5 values. While the T50 values of the species sampled were several degrees above the maximum air temperatures experienced in southern Amazonia, the T5 values of several species are now exceeded under present-day maximum air temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid32337781, year = {2020}, author = {Vezzulli, L and Baker-Austin, C and Kirschner, A and Pruzzo, C and Martinez-Urtaza, J}, title = {Global emergence of environmental non-O1/O139 Vibrio cholerae infections linked with climate change: a neglected research field?.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {22}, number = {10}, pages = {4342-4355}, doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.15040}, pmid = {32337781}, issn = {1462-2920}, support = {311846//European FP7 project 'Protecting the health of Europeans by improving methods for the detection of pathogens in drinking water and water used in food preparation AQUAVALENS/International ; LSC17-007//NFB GmbH/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Gastroenteritis/microbiology/*pathology ; Gene Transfer, Horizontal ; Humans ; Seawater/microbiology ; Vibrio Infections/microbiology/*pathology ; Vibrio cholerae non-O1/classification/genetics/*pathogenicity ; }, abstract = {The bacterium Vibrio cholerae is a natural inhabitant of aquatic ecosystems across the planet. V. cholerae serogroups O1 and O139 are responsible for cholera outbreaks in developing countries accounting for 3-5 million infections worldwide and 28.800-130.000 deaths per year according to the World Health Organization. In contrast, V. cholerae serogroups other than O1 and O139, also designated as V. cholerae non-O1/O139 (NOVC), are not associated with epidemic cholera but can cause other illnesses that may range in severity from mild (e.g. gastroenteritis, otitis, etc.) to life-threatening (e.g. necrotizing fasciitis). Although generally neglected, NOVC-related infections are on the rise and represent one of the most striking examples of emerging human diseases linked to climate change. NOVC strains are also believed to potentially contribute to the emergence of new pathogenic strains including strains with epidemic potential as a direct consequence of genetic exchange mechanisms such as horizontal gene transfer and genetic recombination. Besides general features concerning the biology and ecology of NOVC strains and their associated diseases, this review aims to highlight the most relevant aspects related to the emergence and potential threat posed by NOVC strains under a rapidly changing environmental and climatic scenario.}, }
@article {pmid32334228, year = {2020}, author = {Kouloumpis, V and Pell, RS and Correa-Cano, ME and Yan, X}, title = {Potential trade-offs between eliminating plastics and mitigating climate change: An LCA perspective on Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) bottles in Cornwall.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {727}, number = {}, pages = {138681}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138681}, pmid = {32334228}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The aim of this study is to investigate whether eliminating plastics entirely under existing waste infrastructure and management practices could have an adverse effect on climate change, using a case study on the hypothetical substitution of Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) with glass as the material for bottling liquids in the domestic sector in Cornwall, England. A life cycle environmental impacts-based model was created using high resolution local data on household waste and current management practices in combination with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) datasets. The model allows users to define key system parameters such as masses of materials, transport options and end-of-life processes and produces results for 11 environmental impact categories including the Global Warming Potential (GWP). The results from the application of this model on the case study of Cornwall have shown that the substitution of PET with glass as the material for bottling under the current waste infrastructure and management practices could lead to significant increases in GWP and hinder efforts to tackle climate change. A sensitivity analysis of the glass/PET mass ratio suggests that in order to achieve equal GWP the glass bottles need to become approximately 38% of the weight they are now. Increasing the recycled content and decreasing losses during the recycling processes could also help lower the GWP by 18.9% and 14.5%, respectively. This model can be expanded further to include more types of plastics and other regions to evaluate designs of new regional circular economy with less plastics waste and pollution. Our study suggests that it is necessary and crucial to consider the specific waste infrastructure and management practices in place and use science-based models that incorporate life cycle thinking to evaluate any solutions to plastics pollution in order to avoid problem shifting.}, }
@article {pmid32334166, year = {2020}, author = {Ngin, C and Chhom, C and Neef, A}, title = {Climate change impacts and disaster resilience among micro businesses in the tourism and hospitality sector: The case of Kratie, Cambodia.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {186}, number = {}, pages = {109557}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109557}, pmid = {32334166}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Cambodia ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Floods ; }, abstract = {Cambodia is considered extremely vulnerable to climate change due to high poverty, limited infrastructure, and weak adaptive capacity. Kratie province, in particular, has suffered from climate-induced disasters, including floods, droughts, storms, lightning, and heatwaves. To date, climate change interventions in the province have primarily focused on impacts on agriculture. However, enhancing the climate resilience of micro businesses in the tourism and hospitality sector is also crucial since the provincial economy increasingly depends on the interlinkage between agriculture, tourism and related enterprises. This article examines how climate change has impacted micro businesses in Kratie Town, and how they responded to the impacts. This study is based on semi-structured interviews with micro entrepreneurs randomly selected in the town. Results show that businesses have been predominantly affected by floods and storms. Business exposures and locations, types of business, production and supply chains, and client bases determined different impacts of and responses to these climate-related hazards. Businesses adopted primarily temporary and reactive responses rather than long-term systematic measures. Strengthening adaptive infrastructure, both physical and informational, will improve businesses' capability to prepare for and cope with these disasters.}, }
@article {pmid32333476, year = {2020}, author = {Nielsen, ME and Kingsolver, JG}, title = {Compensating for climate change-induced cue-environment mismatches: evidence for contemporary evolution of a photoperiodic reaction norm in Colias butterflies.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {23}, number = {7}, pages = {1129-1136}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13515}, pmid = {32333476}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {1609023//Division of Biological Infrastructure/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Butterflies ; Climate Change ; Cues ; Photoperiod ; Seasons ; Wings, Animal ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change alters seasonal conditions without altering photoperiod and can thus create a cue-environment mismatch for organisms that use photoperiod as a cue for seasonal plasticity. We investigated whether evolution of the photoperiodic reaction norm has compensated for this mismatch in Colias eurytheme. This butterfly's wing melanization has a thermoregulatory function and changes seasonally. In 1971, Hoffmann quantified how larval photoperiod determines adult wing melanization. We recreated his experiment 47 years later using a contemporary population. Comparing our results to his, we found decreased melanization at short photoperiods but no change in melanization at long photoperiods, which is consistent with the greater increase in spring than summer temperatures recorded for this region. Our study shows that evolution can help correct cue-environment mismatches but not in the same way under all conditions. Studies of contemporary evolution may miss important changes if they focus on only a limited range of conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32333012, year = {2020}, author = {Lembrechts, J}, title = {The Holy Trinity of spatial climate change ecology: high-resolution climate data, long-term biodiversity monitoring and physiological experiments. A commentary on: 'Invasive grasses of sub-Antarctic Marion Island respond to increasing temperatures at the expense of chilling tolerance'.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {125}, number = {5}, pages = {ix-x}, pmid = {32333012}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Islands ; *Poaceae ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid32332913, year = {2020}, author = {Elsen, PR and Monahan, WB and Merenlender, AM}, title = {Topography and human pressure in mountain ranges alter expected species responses to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1974}, pmid = {32332913}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change is leading to widespread elevational shifts thought to increase species extinction risk in mountains. We integrate digital elevation models with a metric of human pressure to examine changes in the amount of intact land area available for species undergoing elevational range shifts in all major mountain ranges globally (n = 1010). Nearly 60% of mountainous area is under intense human pressure, predominantly at low elevations and mountain bases. Consequently, upslope range shifts generally resulted in modeled species at lower elevations expanding into areas of lower human pressure and, due to complex topography, encountering more intact land area relative to their starting position. Such gains were often attenuated at high elevations as land-use constraints diminished and topographic constraints increased. Integrating patterns of topography and human pressure is essential for accurate species vulnerability assessments under climate change, as priorities for protecting, connecting, and restoring mountain landscapes may otherwise be misguided.}, }
@article {pmid32332758, year = {2020}, author = {Rathore, S and Bindoff, NL and Phillips, HE and Feng, M}, title = {Recent hemispheric asymmetry in global ocean warming induced by climate change and internal variability.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {2008}, pmid = {32332758}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Recent research shows that 90% of the net global ocean heat gain during 2005-2015 was confined to the southern hemisphere with little corresponding heat gain in the northern hemisphere ocean. We propose that this heating pattern of the ocean is driven by anthropogenic climate change and an asymmetric climate variation between the two hemispheres. This asymmetric variation is found in the pre-industrial control simulations from 11 climate models. While both layers (0-700 m and 700-2000 m) experience steady anthropogenic warming, the 0-700 m layer experiences large internal variability, which primarily drives the observed hemispheric asymmetry of global ocean heat gain in 0-2000 m layer. We infer that the rate of global ocean warming is consistent with the climate simulations for this period. However, the observed hemispheric asymmetry in heat gain can be explained by the Earth's internal climate variability without invoking alternate hypotheses, such as asymmetric aerosol loading.}, }
@article {pmid32331869, year = {2020}, author = {Pryce, JE and Haile-Mariam, M}, title = {Symposium review: Genomic selection for reducing environmental impact and adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of dairy science}, volume = {103}, number = {6}, pages = {5366-5375}, doi = {10.3168/jds.2019-17732}, pmid = {32331869}, issn = {1525-3198}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Australia ; *Breeding ; Cattle/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Female ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humidity ; Methane/metabolism ; Phenotype ; *Selection, Genetic ; Temperature ; Thermotolerance ; }, abstract = {The world has been warming as greenhouse gases accumulate. Worldwide from 1880 to 2012, the average surface temperature has increased by about 0.85°C and by 0.12°C per decade since 1951. The world's cattle population is a contributor to atmospheric methane, a potent greenhouse gas, in addition to suffering from high temperatures combined with humidity. This makes research into reducing the global footprint of dairy cows of importance on a long-term horizon, while improving tolerance to heat could alleviate the effects of rising temperatures. In December 2017, genomic estimated breeding values for heat tolerance in dairy cattle were released for the first time in Australia. Currently, heat tolerance is not included in the Balanced Performance Index (Australia's national selection index), and the correlation between heat tolerance breeding values and Balanced Performance Index is -0.20, so over time, heat tolerance has worsened due to lack of selection pressure. However, in contrast, sizable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions have been achieved as a favorable response to selecting for increased productivity, longevity, and efficiency, with opportunities for even greater gains through selecting for cow emissions directly. Internationally considerable research effort has been made to develop breeding values focused on reducing methane emissions using individual cow phenotypes. This requires (1) definition of breeding objectives and selection criteria and (2) assembling a sufficiently large data set for genomic prediction. Selecting for heat tolerance and reduced emissions directly may improve resilience to changing environments while reducing environmental impact.}, }
@article {pmid32331213, year = {2020}, author = {Dzomeku, BM and Wald, JP and Wünsche, JN and Nohr, D and Biesalski, HK}, title = {Climate Change Enhanced Carotenoid Pro-Vitamin A Levels of Selected Plantain Cultivars.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {32331213}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Diet diversification and the exploitation of traditional, micronutrient-rich germplasm of staple crops are generally regarded as sustainable and low-cost approaches to increase the micronutrient intake of resource-poor people. Sun's UV index was collected daily throughout the year. The study assessed the seasonality of provitamin A carotenoids in three plantain cultivars in response to climatic condition. Fruits were harvested at three maturities and freeze-dried before analysis. The results showed that there were high levels of the sun's UV-B radiations throughout the year with the highest occurring from November to May when the area experienced clear skies with minimal cloud cover. These high levels of the sun's UV-B index occurred between 9.00 h GMT and 17.00 h GMT. The study also showed that α-carotene content increased with maturity in "Apantu" during the rainy seasons ranging from 95 to 172 μg/100 g of dry pulp. Similar trends were observed during the dry season with a range of 28 to 489 μg/100 g. The α-carotene contents were very high in the periods of high sun's UV-B radiations compared to the periods of low sun's UV-B radiations. The α-carotene levels in the giant French plantains showed similar trends. Intermediate French "Oniaba" and False Horn "Apantu" plantain cultivar showed the highest content of β-carotene during the dry season. The high provitamin A carotenoid levels in the cultivars coincided with the high levels of the sun's UV index.}, }
@article {pmid32330705, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, L and Li, M and Wang, J and Li, X and Wang, L}, title = {An analytical reductionist framework to separate the effects of climate change and human activities on variation in water use efficiency.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {727}, number = {}, pages = {138306}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138306}, pmid = {32330705}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) is a key indicator that depicts the carbon-water coupling relationship in terrestrial ecosystems. Separating the effects of climate change and human activities to the variation in WUE are essential for water resources and ecosystem management, especially for fragile ecosystems such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study, we introduced an analytical framework that combined the attribution approach with the elastic coefficient separation method to assess the impact of climate change and human activities on WUE variation in the TP from 1982 to 2015. The results are the following: (1) the multiyear mean annual WUE over the TP was 0.65 g C·kg[-1] H2O and had a slightly increasing trend with a slope of 0.004 g C·kg[-1] H2O yr[-1] with about 87% of the vegetated area showed increasing trend. (2) WUE was positively correlated with temperature, precipitation and air pressure. The northwest TP tends to be a water-limited condition, while the thermal stress is spatially universal in the TP, climate warming and wetting promoted the gross primary productivity (GPP) and WUE enhancement in the TP. (3) WUE was more sensitive to GPP, and variation in WUE was mainly contributed by GPP. Climate change and human activities tend to cause more variations in GPP rather than evapotranspiration (ET), but great differences exist for different regions and vegetation types. (4) There was a good consistency between the WUE variation calculated by the framework and the actual WUE variation (R[2] = 0.95). Climate change dominated the increase of WUE in the TP with a contribution rate of 79.8%, while human activities tend to reduce WUE (-20.2%). Ecological projects played a positive role in the ecological restoration of the TP, but there may be other human activities, which caused ecological degradation, that may need more attention in future ecological protections.}, }
@article {pmid32325610, year = {2020}, author = {Franzellitti, S and Prada, F and Viarengo, A and Fabbri, E}, title = {Evaluating bivalve cytoprotective responses and their regulatory pathways in a climate change scenario.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {720}, number = {}, pages = {137733}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137733}, pmid = {32325610}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Gills ; Mytilus ; Water Pollutants, Chemical ; }, abstract = {Temperature is a relevant abiotic factor affecting physiological performance and distribution of marine animals in natural environments. The changes in global seawater temperatures make it necessary to understand how molecular mechanisms operate under the cumulative effects of global climate change and chemical pollution to promote/hamper environmental acclimatization. Marine mussels are excellent model organisms to infer the impacts of those anthropogenic threats on coastal ecosystems. In this study, Mediterranean mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) were exposed to different concentrations of the metal copper (Cu as CuCl2: 2.5, 5, 10, 20, 40 μg/L) or the antibiotic oxytetracycline (OTC: 0.1, 1, 10, 100, 1000 μg/L) at increasing seawater temperatures (16 °C, 20 °C, 24 °C). Transcriptional modulation of a 70-kDa heat shock protein (HSP70) and of the ABC transporter P-glycoprotein (P-gp, encoded by the ABCB gene) was assessed along with the cAMP/PKA signaling pathway regulating both gene expressions. At the physiological temperature of mussels (16 °C), Cu and OTC induced bimodal changes of cAMP levels and PKA activities in gills of exposed animals. A correlation between OTC- or Cu- induced changes of PKA activity and expression of hsp70 and ABCB was observed. Temperature increases (up to 24 °C) altered ABCB and hsp70 responses to the pollutants and disrupted their relationship with cAMP/PKA modulation, leading to loss of correlation between the biological endpoints. On the whole, the results indicate that temperature may impair the effects of inorganic and organic chemicals on the cAMP/PKA signaling pathway of mussels, in turn altering key molecular mediators of physiological plasticity and cytoprotection.}, }
@article {pmid32325298, year = {2020}, author = {Liang, L and Deng, X and Wang, P and Wang, Z and Wang, L}, title = {Assessment of the impact of climate change on cities livability in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {726}, number = {}, pages = {138339}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138339}, pmid = {32325298}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {As global warming worsens, climatic conditions in many regions are undergoing profound change, which could influence certain industries, such as agriculture and transportation, and affect the livability of cities. In this study, cities statistics and meteorological station data of the past decade in China were used to analyze the effect of climate change on cities livability. The livability of 288 Chinese cities during 2006-2016 was assessed using an analytic hierarchy process method. Results showed the mean cities livability index in China has improved about 12% throughout the past decade. Moreover, the Moran's I statistic and local indicators of spatial association revealed that the distribution of cities livability reflects a trend of gradual spatial agglomeration. In addition, geostatistical analysis was used to evaluate the impact of extreme weather events on cities livability. It was established that heatwaves and extreme precipitation events have significant impact on the livability of cities in southern China, whereas freezing weather drives the change of urban livability in northern areas. Combinations of different extreme weather conditions will have greater impact on urban livability. Based on mobile phone user data, the relationship between livability change and climate change in Chinese cities was elucidated to provide reference for urban environmental management.}, }
@article {pmid32322063, year = {2020}, author = {Trisos, CH and Merow, C and Pigot, AL}, title = {The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {580}, number = {7804}, pages = {496-501}, pmid = {32322063}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; *Biodiversity ; Forests ; *Geographic Mapping ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Rain ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon[1-3]. However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 °C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species; however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 °C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.}, }
@article {pmid32321030, year = {2020}, author = {Ellwanger, JH and Kulmann-Leal, B and Kaminski, VL and Valverde-Villegas, JM and Veiga, ABGD and Spilki, FR and Fearnside, PM and Caesar, L and Giatti, LL and Wallau, GL and Almeida, SEM and Borba, MR and Hora, VPD and Chies, JAB}, title = {Beyond diversity loss and climate change: Impacts of Amazon deforestation on infectious diseases and public health.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {92}, number = {1}, pages = {e20191375}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202020191375}, pmid = {32321030}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {Animals ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Disease Vectors ; *Forests ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Amazonian biodiversity is increasingly threatened due to the weakening of policies for combating deforestation, especially in Brazil. Loss of animal and plant species, many not yet known to science, is just one among many negative consequences of Amazon deforestation. Deforestation affects indigenous communities, riverside as well as urban populations, and even planetary health. Amazonia has a prominent role in regulating the Earth's climate, with forest loss contributing to rising regional and global temperatures and intensification of extreme weather events. These climatic conditions are important drivers of emerging infectious diseases, and activities associated with deforestation contribute to the spread of disease vectors. This review presents the main impacts of Amazon deforestation on infectious-disease dynamics and public health from a One Health perspective. Because Brazil holds the largest area of Amazon rainforest, emphasis is given to the Brazilian scenario. Finally, potential solutions to mitigate deforestation and emerging infectious diseases are presented from the perspectives of researchers in different fields.}, }
@article {pmid32319066, year = {2020}, author = {Shabbir, G and Khaliq, T and Ahmad, A and Saqib, M}, title = {Assessing the climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for rice production in Punjab, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {18}, pages = {22568-22578}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08846-6}, pmid = {32319066}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Oryza ; Pakistan ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a serious threat to agriculture and food security. The development of adaptation measures is one of the key strategies to offset the climate change impacts on rice crop. A study was planned to develop adaptation strategies for future rice crop through simulation model. This study was consisted of six transplanting dates and three seedling densities which were tested to develop adaptations at three locations, i.e., Faisalabad, Hafizabad, and Gujranwala during the years 2015 and 2016. Climate change scenarios were developed for selected locations through statistical downscaling by selecting five general circulation models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs 8.5) for mid-century (2039-2069). The APSIM-ORYZA model was calibrated well with experimental data which showed an error of 2.35% between observed and simulated grain yield. The impact of climate change was studied by calculating the difference of baseline (1980-2010) and future yield. Model simulated results indicated that the rise in temperature will reduce the rice yield by 7.3%. To overcome this decrease in rice yield, suitable adaptation strategies were tested for mid-century. The developed adaptations, i.e., increased in plant population, nitrogen amount, and early transplanting, improved the rice yield by 8.7% under RCPs 8.5 for mid-century scenarios. Overall, this study provide better understanding of the adaptation processes for sustainable rice yield under anticipated future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32317801, year = {2020}, author = {Lawrence, J and Haasnoot, M and Lempert, R}, title = {Climate change: making decisions in the face of deep uncertainty.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {580}, number = {7804}, pages = {456}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-01147-5}, pmid = {32317801}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Commerce ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Decision Making ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid32317685, year = {2020}, author = {Cheung, WWL and Frölicher, TL}, title = {Marine heatwaves exacerbate climate change impacts for fisheries in the northeast Pacific.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {6678}, pmid = {32317685}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have occurred in all ocean basins with severe negative impacts on coastal and ocean ecosystems. The northeast Pacific 2013-2015 MHW in particular received major societal concerns. Yet, our knowledge about how MHWs impact fish stocks is limited. Here, we combine outputs from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model with a fish impact model to simulate responses of major northeast Pacific fish stocks to MHWs. We show that MHWs cause biomass decrease and shifts in biogeography of fish stocks that are at least four times faster and bigger in magnitude than the effects of decadal-scale mean changes throughout the 21st century. With MHWs, we project a doubling of impact levels by 2050 amongst the most important fisheries species over previous assessments that focus only on long-term climate change. Our results underscore the additional challenges from MHWs for fisheries and their management under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32317639, year = {2020}, author = {Krabbenhoft, TJ and Myers, BJE and Wong, JP and Chu, C and Tingley, RW and Falke, JA and Kwak, TJ and Paukert, CP and Lynch, AJ}, title = {FiCli, the Fish and Climate Change Database, informs climate adaptation and management for freshwater fishes.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {124}, pmid = {32317639}, issn = {2052-4463}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*physiology ; Fresh Water ; Systematic Reviews as Topic ; }, abstract = {Inland fishes provide important ecosystem services to communities worldwide and are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Fish respond to climate change in diverse and nuanced ways, which creates challenges for practitioners of fish conservation, climate change adaptation, and management. Although climate change is known to affect fish globally, a comprehensive online, public database of how climate change has impacted inland fishes worldwide and adaptation or management practices that may address these impacts does not exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify peer-reviewed journal publications describing projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes. From this standardized Fish and Climate Change database, FiCli (pronounced fick-lee), researchers and managers can query fish families, species, response types, or geographic locations to obtain summary information on inland fish responses to climate change and recommended management actions. The FiCli database is updatable and provides access to comprehensive published information to inform inland fish conservation and adaptation planning in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid32315590, year = {2020}, author = {Louis, M and Skovrind, M and Samaniego Castruita, JA and Garilao, C and Kaschner, K and Gopalakrishnan, S and Haile, JS and Lydersen, C and Kovacs, KM and Garde, E and Heide-Jørgensen, MP and Postma, L and Ferguson, SH and Willerslev, E and Lorenzen, ED}, title = {Influence of past climate change on phylogeography and demographic history of narwhals, Monodon monoceros.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {287}, number = {1925}, pages = {20192964}, pmid = {32315590}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Ecosystem ; Genome, Mitochondrial ; *Phylogeography ; Whales/*psychology ; }, abstract = {The Arctic is warming at an unprecedented rate, with unknown consequences for endemic fauna. However, Earth has experienced severe climatic oscillations in the past, and understanding how species responded to them might provide insight into their resilience to near-future climatic predictions. Little is known about the responses of Arctic marine mammals to past climatic shifts, but narwhals (Monodon monoceros) are considered one of the endemic Arctic species most vulnerable to environmental change. Here, we analyse 121 complete mitochondrial genomes from narwhals sampled across their range and use them in combination with species distribution models to elucidate the influence of past and ongoing climatic shifts on their population structure and demographic history. We find low levels of genetic diversity and limited geographic structuring of genetic clades. We show that narwhals experienced a long-term low effective population size, which increased after the Last Glacial Maximum, when the amount of suitable habitat expanded. Similar post-glacial habitat release has been a key driver of population size expansion of other polar marine predators. Our analyses indicate that habitat availability has been critical to the success of narwhals, raising concerns for their fate in an increasingly warming Arctic.}, }
@article {pmid32313262, year = {2020}, author = {Li, G and Yin, B and Li, J and Wang, J and Wei, W and Bolnick, DI and Wan, X and Zhu, B and Zhang, Z}, title = {Host-microbiota interaction helps to explain the bottom-up effects of climate change on a small rodent species.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {1795-1808}, pmid = {32313262}, issn = {1751-7370}, support = {R01 AI123659/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Clostridiales ; Fatty Acids, Volatile ; *Gastrointestinal Microbiome ; *Rodentia ; }, abstract = {The population cycles of small rodents have puzzled biologists for centuries. There is a growing recognition of the cascading effects of climate change on the population dynamics of rodents. However, the ultimate cause for the bottom-up effects of precipitation is poorly understood, from a microbial perspective. Here, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment in the field, and three feeding trials with controlled diets in the laboratory. We found precipitation supplementation facilitated the recovery of a perennial rhizomatous grass (Leymus chinensis) species, which altered the diet composition and increase the intake of fructose and fructooligosaccharides for Brandt's vole. Lab results showed that this nutrient shift was accompanied by the modulation of gut microbiota composition and functional pathways (especially for the degradation or biosynthesis of L-histidine). Particularly, the relative abundance of Eubacterium hallii was consistently increased after feeding voles with more L. chinensis, fructose or fructooligosaccharide. These modulations ultimately increased the production of short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and boosted the growth of vole. This study provides evidence that the precipitation pulses cascades through the plant community to affect rodent gut microbiome. Our results highlight the importance of considering host-microbiota interaction when investigating rodent population responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32313242, year = {2020}, author = {Rocklöv, J and Dubrow, R}, title = {Climate change: an enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control.}, journal = {Nature immunology}, volume = {21}, number = {5}, pages = {479-483}, pmid = {32313242}, issn = {1529-2916}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Vectors ; Greenhouse Gases/adverse effects ; Humans ; Primary Prevention ; Vector Borne Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already affecting vector-borne disease transmission and spread, and its impacts are likely to worsen. In the face of ongoing climate change, we must intensify efforts to prevent and control vector-borne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid32313241, year = {2020}, author = {Semenza, JC}, title = {Cascading risks of waterborne diseases from climate change.}, journal = {Nature immunology}, volume = {21}, number = {5}, pages = {484-487}, pmid = {32313241}, issn = {1529-2916}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Floods ; Humans ; Public Health ; Rain ; Risk Factors ; Waterborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid32313137, year = {2020}, author = {Nishiyama, Y}, title = {Resilience under climate change.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {6}, number = {5}, pages = {442-443}, pmid = {32313137}, issn = {2055-0278}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Photosynthesis ; *Photosystem II Protein Complex ; }, }
@article {pmid32312964, year = {2020}, author = {Reverter, M and Sarter, S and Caruso, D and Avarre, JC and Combe, M and Pepey, E and Pouyaud, L and Vega-Heredía, S and de Verdal, H and Gozlan, RE}, title = {Aquaculture at the crossroads of global warming and antimicrobial resistance.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1870}, pmid = {32312964}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology ; *Aquaculture ; Bacteria/*drug effects/pathogenicity ; Climate Change ; *Drug Resistance, Bacterial/drug effects ; Ecology ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Marine Biology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In many developing countries, aquaculture is key to ensuring food security for millions of people. It is thus important to measure the full implications of environmental changes on the sustainability of aquaculture. We conduct a double meta-analysis (460 articles) to explore how global warming and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) impact aquaculture. We calculate a Multi-Antibiotic Resistance index (MAR) of aquaculture-related bacteria (11,274 isolates) for 40 countries, of which mostly low- and middle-income countries present high AMR levels. Here we show that aquaculture MAR indices correlate with MAR indices from human clinical bacteria, temperature and countries' climate vulnerability. We also find that infected aquatic animals present higher mortalities at warmer temperatures. Countries most vulnerable to climate change will probably face the highest AMR risks, impacting human health beyond the aquaculture sector, highlighting the need for urgent action. Sustainable solutions to minimise antibiotic use and increase system resilience are therefore needed.}, }
@article {pmid32310277, year = {2020}, author = {Inoue, S and Dang, QL and Man, R and Tedla, B}, title = {Photoperiod and CO2 elevation influence morphological and physiological responses to drought in trembling aspen: implications for climate change-induced migration.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {40}, number = {7}, pages = {917-927}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpaa044}, pmid = {32310277}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Photoperiod ; Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves ; Soil ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Past research suggests climate change will cause the climate envelopes of various tree species to shift to higher latitudes and can lead to a northward migration of trees. However, the success and scope of the migration are likely affected by factors that are not contained in the climate envelope, such as photoperiod and interactive effects of multiple environmental factors, and these effects are currently not well understood. In this study, we investigated the interactive effects of CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), photoperiod and soil moisture on the morphological and physiological traits of Populus tremuloides Michx. We grew seedlings under two levels of [CO2] (ambient [CO2] (AC) 400 vs elevated [CO2] (EC) 1000 μmol mol-1), four photoperiod regimes (growing season photoperiods at 48 (seed origin), 52, 55 and 58°N latitude) and two soil moisture regimes (high soil moisture (HSM) vs low soil moisture (LSM), -2 MPa) for two growing seasons in greenhouses. Both morphological and physiological responses were observed. Low soil moisture reduced leaf size, total leaf area and height growth by 33, 46 and 12%, respectively, and increased root/shoot ratio by 20%. The smaller leaf area and increased root/shoot ratio allowed the seedlings in LSM to maintain higher the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax) and the maximum rate of electron transport for RuBP regeneration (Jmax) than control seedlings (55 and 83% higher in July, 52 and 70% in August, respectively). Photoperiod and [CO2] modified responses to LSM and LSM altered responses to photoperiod and [CO2], e.g., the August photosynthetic rate was 44% higher in LSM than in HSM under EC but no such a difference existed under AC. The increase in Vcmax and Jmax in response to LSM varied with photoperiod (Vcmax: 36% at 52°N, 22% at 55°N, 47% at 58°N; Jmax: 29% at 52°N, 21% at 55°N, 45% at 58°N). Stomatal conductance and its reduction in response to LSM declined with increasing photoperiod, which can have significant implications for soil moisture effect on northward migration. This study highlights the need to consider the complex interactions of [CO2], photoperiod and soil moisture when planning assisted migration or predicting the natural migration of boreal forests in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32304458, year = {2020}, author = {Durieux, ME}, title = {"Primum Non Nocere": Global Health and Climate Change.}, journal = {Anesthesia and analgesia}, volume = {131}, number = {3}, pages = {981-983}, doi = {10.1213/ANE.0000000000004815}, pmid = {32304458}, issn = {1526-7598}, mesh = {Air Travel ; Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; Food Supply ; *Global Health ; Health Status ; Humans ; Interdisciplinary Communication ; International Cooperation ; *Medical Missions ; *Telemedicine ; Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid32304066, year = {2020}, author = {Bakhsh, K and Abbas, K and Hassan, S and Yasin, MA and Ali, R and Ahmad, N and Chattha, MWA}, title = {Climate change-induced human conflicts and economic costs in Pakistani Punjab.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {19}, pages = {24299-24311}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08607-5}, pmid = {32304066}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Family Characteristics ; Humans ; Income ; Pakistan ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Understanding causes of interpersonal conflicts, related costs, and the effects on investment in agriculture are important concerns of social sciences. The present study was designed to explore these aspects in relation to climate change, since rising temperature and precipitation are considered crucial causal factors in fueling interpersonal conflicts. The study used cross-sectional data collected from rural farm households from a large district of Pakistani Punjab. Cost of conflicts was estimated using standard economic methods whereas factors affecting interpersonal conflicts were estimated through employing logit model. The study found that interpersonal conflicts cost US$135 per month for following the proceedings of the conflicts filed in the court. Households involved in conflicts spent significantly very few resources in purchasing farm inputs which in turn declined productivity of maize (28%) and sugarcane (19%). Warm temperature, precipitation, and windstorm were perceived by households as causal factors for interpersonal conflicts. Socioeconomic characteristics namely, farm size, livestock, family size, and high monthly income of household, were significantly associated with interpersonal conflicts. The study concludes important policy implications.}, }
@article {pmid32303671, year = {2020}, author = {Huang, C and Shi, G}, title = {Climate Change to Blame in Severe Oral Corticosteroid-Dependent Asthma? A Case Report.}, journal = {The American journal of case reports}, volume = {21}, number = {}, pages = {e921120}, pmid = {32303671}, issn = {1941-5923}, mesh = {Administration, Inhalation ; Adrenal Cortex Hormones/therapeutic use ; Anti-Inflammatory Agents/therapeutic use ; Asthma/diagnosis/*drug therapy ; Climate Change ; Drug Therapy, Combination ; Female ; Humans ; Methylprednisolone/therapeutic use ; Middle Aged ; Respiratory Sounds/etiology ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND Despite the availability of inhaled corticosteroid and the development of various biological treatment agents, severe asthma patients are still at high risk of recurrent and life-threatening exacerbations, which results in morbidity and mortality. In addition to treatment response variability, incorrect inhaler technique, poor adherence, and major psychological problems, environmental factors such as climate change also are contributory factors for worsen symptoms of asthma and acute exacerbation. We present here, a case of a 63-year-old female patient who had oral corticosteroid-dependent severe asthma and recurrent attacks in spring and autumn. CASE REPORT A 63-year-old Chinese female was diagnosed with asthma when she was 3 years old. During 2007-2011, she was admitted to the hospital once a year because of asthma exacerbation; she was on a regular treatment regimen of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) plus long-acting beta-agonist (LABA). In October 2018, she was admitted to our Department for aggravating symptoms due to "sudden climate change". She was discharged on tapering doses of oral methylprednisolone from 32 mg once daily, but the reduced methylprednisolone resulted in aggravation of wheezing. However, when the weather warmed up, her symptoms were relieved, and she stopped taking methylprednisolone (after the tapering). CONCLUSIONS This study suggests an association between the common causes of weather changes and acute severe asthma exacerbation. Patients and clinicians should be aware that keeping warm and avoiding exposure to cold air and airborne allergens might reduce the frequency of asthma exacerbations.}, }
@article {pmid32302868, year = {2020}, author = {Huber, V and Krummenauer, L and Peña-Ortiz, C and Lange, S and Gasparrini, A and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Garcia-Herrera, R and Frieler, K}, title = {Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {186}, number = {}, pages = {109447}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447}, pmid = {32302868}, issn = {1096-0953}, support = {MR/M022625/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; MR/R013349/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Germany/epidemiology ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Mortality ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.<br><br>METHODS: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability.<br><br>RESULTS: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3&#xa0;&#xb0;C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3&#xa0;&#xb0;C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4&#xa0;&#xb0;C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5&#xa0;&#xb0;C, compared to today's warming level of 1&#xa0;&#xb0;C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2&#xa0;&#xb0;C versus 1&#xa0;&#xb0;C of GMT rise.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.}, }
@article {pmid32302051, year = {2020}, author = {Rushing, CS and Rubenstein, M and Lyons, JE and Runge, MC}, title = {Using value of information to prioritize research needs for migratory bird management under climate change: a case study using federal land acquisition in the United States.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {95}, number = {4}, pages = {1109-1130}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12602}, pmid = {32302051}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Research/*trends ; United States ; }, abstract = {In response to global habitat loss, many governmental and non-governmental organizations have implemented land acquisition programs to protect critical habitats permanently for priority species. The ability of these protected areas to meet future management objectives may be compromised if the effects of climate change are not considered in acquisition decisions. Unfortunately, the effects of climate change on ecological systems are complex and plagued by uncertainty, making it difficult for organizations to prioritize research needs to improve decision-making. Herein, we demonstrate the use of qualitative value of information analysis to identify and prioritize which sources of uncertainty should be reduced to improve land acquisition decisions to protect migratory birds in the face of climate change. The qualitative value of information analysis process involves four steps: (i) articulating alternative hypotheses; (ii) determining the magnitude of uncertainty regarding each hypothesis; (iii) evaluating the relevance of each hypothesis to acquisition decision-making; and (iv) assessing the feasibility of reducing the uncertainty surrounding each hypothesis through research and monitoring. We demonstrate this approach using the objectives of 3 U.S. federal land acquisition programs that focus on migratory bird management. We used a comprehensive literature review, expert elicitation, and professional judgement to evaluate 11 hypotheses about the effect of climate change on migratory birds. Based on our results, we provide a list of priorities for future research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty and improve land acquisition decisions for the programs considered in our case study. Reducing uncertainty about how climate change will influence the spatial distribution of priority species and biotic homogenization were identified as the highest priorities for future research due to both the value of this information for improving land acquisition decisions and the feasibility of reducing uncertainty through research and monitoring. Research on how changes in precipitation patterns and winter severity will influence migratory bird abundance is also expected to benefit land acquisition decisions. By contrast, hypotheses about phenology and migration distance were identified as low priorities for research. By providing a rigorous and transparent approach to prioritizing research, we demonstrate that qualitative value of information is a valuable tool for prioritizing research and improving management decisions in other complex, high-uncertainty cases where traditional quantitative value of information analysis is not possible. Given the inherent complexity of ecological systems under climate change, and the difficulty of identifying management-relevant research priorities, we expect this approach to have wide applications within the field of natural resource management.}, }
@article {pmid32301569, year = {2020}, author = {Albrich, K and Rammer, W and Seidl, R}, title = {Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {4013-4027}, pmid = {32301569}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {Y 895/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; Y895-B25//Austrian Science Fund/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Tracheophyta ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual-based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer-dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.}, }
@article {pmid32298879, year = {2020}, author = {Simmons, AT and Cowie, AL and Brock, PM}, title = {Climate change mitigation for Australian wheat production.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {725}, number = {}, pages = {138260}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138260}, pmid = {32298879}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Australia ; Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens humanity yet the provision of food that supports humanity is a major source of greenhouse gases, which exacerbates that threatening process. Developing strategies to reduce the emissions associated with key global commodities is essential to mitigate the impacts of climate change. To date, however, there have been no studies that have estimated the potential to reduce GHG emissions associated with the production of wheat, a key global commodity, at a national scale through changes to wheat production systems. Here, we assess the consequences for net GHG emissions of Australian wheat production from applying three changes to wheat production systems: increasing the rates of fertiliser N to achieve the water-limited yield potential; increasing the frequency of lime applications on acid soils; and changing a two year cropping rotation (from wheat-wheat to legume-wheat). We predict that applying these three changes across the key wheat growing regions in Australia would increase production of wheat and legumes by 17.8 and 5.3 Mt, respectively, over the two-year period. Intensifying Australian production would reduce the need to produce wheat and legumes elsewhere in the world. This would free up agricultural land at the global scale and avoid the need to convert forestland and grassland to cropping lands to meet increasing global demands for wheat. We find that applying these changes across wheat growing zones would reduce the GHGs associated with Australian wheat production by 18.4 Mt CO2-e over the two-year period. Our research supports the notion that intensification of existing agricultural production can provide climate change mitigation. The impacts of intensification on other environmental indicators also need to be considered by policy makers.}, }
@article {pmid32298349, year = {2020}, author = {Allyn, AJ and Alexander, MA and Franklin, BS and Massiot-Granier, F and Pershing, AJ and Scott, JD and Mills, KE}, title = {Comparing and synthesizing quantitative distribution models and qualitative vulnerability assessments to project marine species distributions under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e0231595}, pmid = {32298349}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fishes/physiology ; Models, Biological ; New England ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Species distribution shifts are a widely reported biological consequence of climate-driven warming across marine ecosystems, creating ecological and social challenges. To meet these challenges and inform management decisions, we need accurate projections of species distributions. Quantitative species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely used to make these projections, while qualitative climate change vulnerability assessments are becoming more common. We constructed SDMs, compared SDM projections to expectations from a qualitative expert climate change vulnerability assessment, and developed a novel approach for combining the two methods to project the distribution and relative biomass of 49 marine species in the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem under a "business as usual" climate change scenario. A forecasting experiment using SDMs highlighted their ability to capture relative biomass patterns fairly well (mean Pearson's correlation coefficient between predicted and observed biomass = 0.24, range = 0-0.6) and pointed to areas needing improvement, including reducing prediction error and better capturing fine-scale spatial variability. SDM projections suggest the region will undergo considerable biological changes, especially in the Gulf of Maine, where commercially-important groundfish and traditional forage species are expected to decline as coastal fish species and warmer-water forage species historically found in the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Bight area increase. The SDM projections only occasionally aligned with vulnerability assessment expectations, with agreement more common for species with adult mobility and population growth rates that showed low sensitivity to climate change. Although our blended approach tried to build from the strengths of each method, it had no noticeable improvement in predictive ability over SDMs. This work rigorously evaluates the predictive ability of SDMs, quantifies expected species distribution shifts under future climate conditions, and tests a new approach for integrating SDMs and vulnerability assessments to help address the complex challenges arising from climate-driven species distribution shifts.}, }
@article {pmid32296143, year = {2020}, author = {Peng, B and Guan, K and Tang, J and Ainsworth, EA and Asseng, S and Bernacchi, CJ and Cooper, M and Delucia, EH and Elliott, JW and Ewert, F and Grant, RF and Gustafson, DI and Hammer, GL and Jin, Z and Jones, JW and Kimm, H and Lawrence, DM and Li, Y and Lombardozzi, DL and Marshall-Colon, A and Messina, CD and Ort, DR and Schnable, JC and Vallejos, CE and Wu, A and Yin, X and Zhou, W}, title = {Towards a multiscale crop modelling framework for climate change adaptation assessment.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {338-348}, pmid = {32296143}, issn = {2055-0278}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Predicting the consequences of manipulating genotype (G) and agronomic management (M) on agricultural ecosystem performances under future environmental (E) conditions remains a challenge. Crop modelling has the potential to enable society to assess the efficacy of G × M technologies to mitigate and adapt crop production systems to climate change. Despite recent achievements, dedicated research to develop and improve modelling capabilities from gene to global scales is needed to provide guidance on designing G × M adaptation strategies with full consideration of their impacts on both crop productivity and ecosystem sustainability under varying climatic conditions. Opportunities to advance the multiscale crop modelling framework include representing crop genetic traits, interfacing crop models with large-scale models, improving the representation of physiological responses to climate change and management practices, closing data gaps and harnessing multisource data to improve model predictability and enable identification of emergent relationships. A fundamental challenge in multiscale prediction is the balance between process details required to assess the intervention and predictability of the system at the scales feasible to measure the impact. An advanced multiscale crop modelling framework will enable a gene-to-farm design of resilient and sustainable crop production systems under a changing climate at regional-to-global scales.}, }
@article {pmid32295792, year = {2020}, author = {Scheerens, C and Ruyssen, I and Ray, S and De Sutter, A and Vanhove, W and Bekaert, E and Mash, B and Decat, P and De Maeseneer, J}, title = {Tackling adverse health effects of climate change and migration through intersectoral capacity building in Sub-Saharan Africa.}, journal = {BJGP open}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {32295792}, issn = {2398-3795}, }
@article {pmid32292221, year = {2020}, author = {Pritchard, EC}, title = {Editorial - IChemE Special Issue on Climate Change.}, journal = {Chemical engineering research &amp; design : transactions of the Institution of Chemical Engineers}, volume = {158}, number = {}, pages = {44-45}, doi = {10.1016/j.cherd.2020.04.001}, pmid = {32292221}, issn = {0263-8762}, }
@article {pmid32291288, year = {2020}, author = {O'Connor, C and Kiely, L and O'Riordan, A and O'Connell, G and Bennett, M and O'Shea, S and Murphy, LA and Bourke, J and Murphy, M}, title = {A change of climate for climate change: the environmental benefit of specialty outreach clinics.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {369}, number = {}, pages = {m1410}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.m1410}, pmid = {32291288}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid32288343, year = {2019}, author = {Vu, HT and Liu, Y and Tran, DV}, title = {Nationalizing a global phenomenon: A study of how the press in 45 countries and territories portrays climate change.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {58}, number = {}, pages = {101942}, pmid = {32288343}, issn = {0959-3780}, abstract = {This study investigates the news coverage of climate change in 45 different countries and territories. Using the news framing approach, this study identifies the connections between several national socioeconomic, governance, and environmental traits and the portrayals of climate change. Although climate change is a global issue that affects every country in the world, how the news media frame it varies from country to country. Such a variation is related to each country's economic development, climate severity, and governance. The findings of this study contribute to framing literature by assessing frame use in national contexts, filling in the gap in the application of this theoretical framework.}, }
@article {pmid32286277, year = {2020}, author = {Scanes, E and Scanes, PR and Ross, PM}, title = {Climate change rapidly warms and acidifies Australian estuaries.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1803}, pmid = {32286277}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change is impacting ecosystems worldwide. Estuaries are diverse and important aquatic ecosystems; and yet until now we have lacked information on the response of estuaries to climate change. Here we present data from a twelve-year monitoring program, involving 6200 observations of 166 estuaries along >1100 kilometres of the Australian coastline encompassing all estuary morphologies. Estuary temperatures increased by 2.16 °C on average over 12 years, at a rate of 0.2 °C year[-1], with waters acidifying at a rate of 0.09 pH units and freshening at 0.086 PSU year[-1]. The response of estuaries to climate change is dependent on their morphology. Lagoons and rivers are warming and acidifying at the fastest rate because of shallow average depths and limited oceanic exchange. The changes measured are an order of magnitude faster than predicted by global ocean and atmospheric models, indicating that existing global models may not be useful to predict change in estuaries.}, }
@article {pmid32286257, year = {2020}, author = {Wei, YM and Han, R and Wang, C and Yu, B and Liang, QM and Yuan, XC and Chang, J and Zhao, Q and Liao, H and Tang, B and Yan, J and Cheng, L and Yang, Z}, title = {Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1624}, pmid = {32286257}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {A strategy that informs on countries' potential losses due to lack of climate action may facilitate global climate governance. Here, we quantify a distribution of mitigation effort whereby each country is economically better off than under current climate pledges. This effort-sharing optimizing approach applied to a 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming threshold suggests self-preservation emissions trajectories to inform NDCs enhancement and long-term strategies. Results show that following the current emissions reduction efforts, the whole world would experience a washout of benefit, amounting to almost 126.68-616.12 trillion dollars until 2100 compared to 1.5 °C or well below 2 °C commensurate action. If countries are even unable to implement their current NDCs, the whole world would lose more benefit, almost 149.78-791.98 trillion dollars until 2100. On the contrary, all countries will be able to have a significant positive cumulative net income before 2100 if they follow the self-preservation strategy.}, }
@article {pmid32285562, year = {2020}, author = {Matz, MV and Treml, EA and Haller, BC}, title = {Estimating the potential for coral adaptation to global warming across the Indo-West Pacific.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, pages = {3473-3481}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15060}, pmid = {32285562}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {OCE-1737312//National Science Foundation/International ; //U.S. Navy/International ; //Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Coral Reefs ; Global Warming ; Japan ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {The potential of reef-building corals to adapt to increasing sea-surface temperatures is often debated but has rarely been comprehensively modeled on a region-wide scale. We used individual-based simulations to model adaptation to warming in a coral metapopulation comprising 680 reefs and representing the whole of the Central Indo-West Pacific. Encouragingly, some reefs-most notably Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, New Caledonia and the southern half of the Great Barrier Reef-exhibited high capacity for adaptation and, in our model, maintained coral cover even under a rapid "business-as-usual" warming scenario throughout the modeled period (200 years). Higher resilience of these reefs was observed under all tested parameter settings except the models prohibiting selection and/or migration during warming. At the same time, the majority of reefs in the region tended to collapse within the first 100 years of warming. The adaptive potential (odds of maintaining high coral cover) of a given reef could be predicted based on two metrics: the reef's present-day temperature, and the proportion of recruits immigrating from warmer locations. The latter metric explains the most variation in adaptive potential, and significantly correlates with actual coral cover changes observed throughout the region between the 1970s and the early 2000s. These findings will help prioritize coral conservation efforts and plan assisted gene flow interventions to boost the adaptive potential of specific coral populations.}, }
@article {pmid32284814, year = {2020}, author = {Melore, TW and Nel, V}, title = {Resilience of informal settlements to climate change in the mountainous areas of Konso, Ethiopia and QwaQwa, South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {778}, pmid = {32284814}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Managing change is essential for human survival; thus, the importance of adapting to climate change has been increasingly recognised by researchers and governments alike. This is reflected in the growing literature on climate change and the imperative for action including building resilience in our socio-ecological systems. Despite the large body of research that now exists, few studies have considered the resilience of informal rural or peri-urban settlements in mountainous regions. This article considered the resilience of two rural settlements in mountainous areas, namely Konso, Ethiopia, and QwaQwa, South Africa, to the influences of climate change based on the assets available to them. The authors obtained the local communities' perception of their risks throsugh interviews with community leaders and a survey of 384 residents, divided equally between each settlement. Furthermore, the resilience of each community was assessed on the basis of their environmental, social, economic, human, institutional and physical capitals using a climate change resilience indicator. The findings showed that both communities faced major challenges because of climate change, particularly from drought and poverty. We found that both communities retained some forms of indigenous knowledge, but its greater application in Konso appeared to improve resilience to a greater extent than QwaQwa, where it played a lesser role and the community was more dependent on the government. However, indigenous knowledge alone is not sufficient to support these communities in the long term, given the growing aridity of the regions, and other approaches are also necessary, including government support, to enhance and grow their capitals.}, }
@article {pmid32284416, year = {2020}, author = {Rockman, M and Hritz, C}, title = {Expanding use of archaeology in climate change response by changing its social environment.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {15}, pages = {8295-8302}, pmid = {32284416}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Archaeology/organization &amp; administration ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; Social Environment ; }, abstract = {Climate science has outlined targets for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions necessary to provide a substantial chance of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change on both natural and human systems. How to reach those targets, however, requires balancing physical realities of the natural environment with the complexity of the human social environment, including histories, cultures, and values. Archaeology is the study of interactions of natural and social environments through time and across space. As well, the field of cultural resources management, which includes archaeology, regularly engages with values such as site significance and allocation of funding that the modern social environment ascribes to its own history. Through these two approaches, archaeology has potential to provide both data for and methods of addressing challenges the global community faces through climate change. To date, however, archaeology and related areas of cultural heritage have had relatively little role in the global climate response. Here, we assess the social environment of archaeology and climate change and resulting structural barriers that have limited use of archaeology in and for climate change with a case study of the US federal government. On this basis, we provide recommendations to the fields of archaeology and climate response about how to more fully realize the multiple potential uses of archaeology for the challenges of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32284415, year = {2020}, author = {Dawson, T and Hambly, J and Kelley, A and Lees, W and Miller, S}, title = {Coastal heritage, global climate change, public engagement, and citizen science.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {15}, pages = {8280-8286}, pmid = {32284415}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Archaeology ; *Citizen Science ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Florida ; Humans ; Maine ; Scotland ; }, abstract = {Climate change is threatening an uncalculated number of archaeological sites globally, totaling perhaps hundreds of thousands of culturally and paleoenvironmentally significant resources. As with all archaeological sites, they provide evidence of humanity's past and help us understand our place in the present world. Coastal sites, clustered at the water's edge, are already experiencing some of the most dramatic damage due to anthropogenic climate change, and the situation is predicted to worsen in the future. In the face of catastrophic loss, organizations around the world are developing new ways of working with this threatened coastal resource. This paper uses three examples from Scotland, Florida, and Maine to highlight how new partnerships and citizen science approaches are building communities of practice to better manage threatened coastal heritage. It compares methods on either side of the Atlantic and highlights challenges and solutions. The approaches are applicable to the increasing number of heritage sites everywhere at risk from climate change; the study of coastal sites thus helps society prepare for climate change impacts to heritage worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid32284400, year = {2020}, author = {Douglass, K and Cooper, J}, title = {Archaeology, environmental justice, and climate change on islands of the Caribbean and southwestern Indian Ocean.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {15}, pages = {8254-8262}, pmid = {32284400}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Archaeology/history ; Caribbean Region ; Climate Change/*history ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Indian Ocean ; Islands ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts island communities all over the world. Sea-level rise, an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and changes in distribution and health of marine organisms are among the most significant processes affecting island communities worldwide. On islands of the Caribbean and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO), however, today's climate change impacts are magnified by historical environmental injustice and colonial legacies, which have heightened the vulnerability of human and other biotic communities. For some islands, archaeological and paleoecological research offers an important record of precolonial climate change and its interplay with human lives and landscapes. The archaeological record suggests strategies and mechanisms that can inform discussions of resilience in the face of climate change. We detail climate-related challenges facing island Caribbean and SWIO communities using archaeological and paleoecological evidence for past climate change and human response and argue that these cannot be successfully addressed without an understanding of the processes that have, over time, disrupted livelihoods, reshaped land- and seascapes, threatened intergenerational ecological knowledge transfer, and led to increased inequality and climate vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid32281711, year = {2020}, author = {Rees, WG and Hofgaard, A and Boudreau, S and Cairns, DM and Harper, K and Mamet, S and Mathisen, I and Swirad, Z and Tutubalina, O}, title = {Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {3965-3977}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15113}, pmid = {32281711}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//National Science Foundation/International ; //Government of Canada/International ; 160022/F40//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d/International ; 176065/S30//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d/International ; 185023/S50//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d/International ; 244557/RI//Norges Forskningsr&#xe5;d/International ; //University of Cambridge/International ; }, mesh = {Alaska ; Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Siberia ; Tundra ; }, abstract = {Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~10[3] -10[4] m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global-change-related biotic and abiotic implications, including land-atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration.}, }
@article {pmid32281209, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, B and Gao, X and Zheng, K and Ma, J and Jiao, Z and Xiao, J and Wang, H}, title = {The potential distribution and dynamics of important vectors Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus in China under climate change scenarios: an ecological niche modelling approach.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {76}, number = {9}, pages = {3096-3107}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5861}, pmid = {32281209}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {2017YFD0501800//Ministry of Science and Technology/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; China ; Climate Change ; *Culex ; Ecosystem ; Mosquito Vectors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Intense studies have been carried out on the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases and vectors. Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus are two medically concerned mosquito species in temperate and tropical areas, which serve as important disease-transmitting pests of a variety of diseases. The ongoing geographical expansion of these mosquitoes has brought an increasing threat to public health.<br><br>RESULTS: Based on mosquito occurrence records and high-resolution environmental layers, an ecological niche model was established to model their current and future potential distribution in China. Our model showed that the current suitable area for Cx. p. pallens is distributed in the central, eastern and northern parts of China, while Cx. p. quinquefasciatus is distributed in vast areas in southern China. Under future climate change scenarios, both species are predicted to expand their range to varying degrees and RCP 8.5 provides the largest expansion. Northward core shifts will occur in ranges of both species. Environmental variables which have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes were also revealed by our model.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Severe habitat expansion of vectors is likely to occur in the future 21st century. Our models mapped the high-risk areas and risk factors which needs to be paid attention. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological surveys and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of vector-borne diseases. &#xa9; 2020 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid32280366, year = {2020}, author = {Neumann, JE and Willwerth, J and Martinich, J and McFarland, J and Sarofim, MC and Yohe, G}, title = {Climate damage functions for estimating the economic impacts of climate change in the United States.}, journal = {Review of environmental economics and policy}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {25-43}, pmid = {32280366}, issn = {1750-6824}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid32277350, year = {2020}, author = {Bakare, AG and Kour, G and Akter, M and Iji, PA}, title = {Impact of climate change on sustainable livestock production and existence of wildlife and marine species in the South Pacific island countries: a review.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {8}, pages = {1409-1421}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01902-3}, pmid = {32277350}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Floods ; Humans ; Livestock ; Pacific Islands ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to humanity by intensifying multiple hazards. South Pacific Island countries (SPICs) are affected and face a dire challenge to survival. Sea level rise is reducing the already limited land for human and animal habitation. Tropical cyclones and droughts are having devastating effects on the lives of humans and animals. Tropical cyclone Winston, for example, destroyed infrastructure for humans and animals in some parts of Fiji, and infectious diseases are spreading to regions where they are not commonly seen following cyclones and floods. Likewise, climate change is making droughts worse. Droughts are destroying crops and pasturelands and making freshwater unavailable for human and animal populations in the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu. There is an urgent need to ascertain the best approaches to tackle the events, which are already happening. Short-term changes can be managed at local levels through public awareness campaigns, understanding the weather patterns to prepare for disasters, reclaiming land, improving livestock breeds, introducing zoos and wildlife sanctuaries and inventing economically feasible technologies to harvest water. Long-term solutions depend on the implementation of international agreements, international aid and collective effort.}, }
@article {pmid32275738, year = {2020}, author = {Naccarella, A and Morgan, JW and Cutler, SC and Venn, SE}, title = {Alpine treeline ecotone stasis in the face of recent climate change and disturbance by fire.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e0231339}, pmid = {32275738}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Altitude ; Biodiversity ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Eucalyptus/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Fires ; *Forests ; }, abstract = {How species respond to climate change will depend on biological characteristics, species physiological limits, traits (such as dispersal), and interactions with disturbance. We examine multi-decadal shifts in the distribution of trees at the alpine treeline in response to regional warming and repeated disturbance by fire in the Victorian Alps, south-east Australia. Alpine treelines are composed of Eucalyptus pauciflora subsp. niphophila (Snow Gum, Myrtaceae) species. The location and basal girth of all trees and saplings were recorded across treelines at four mountains in 2002 and 2018. We quantify changes in treeline position (sapling recruitment above treeline) over time in relation to warming and disturbance by fire, and examine changes in stand structure below treeline (stand density, size class analyses). Short-distance advance of the treeline occurred between 2002 and 2018, but was largely restricted to areas that were unburned during this period. No saplings were seen above treeline after two fires, despite evidence that saplings were common pre-fire. Below treeline, subalpine woodland stands were largely resilient to fire; trees resprouted from lignotubers. However, small trees were reduced in number in woodlands when burned twice within a decade. Population dynamics at the alpine treeline were responsive to recent climate change, but other factors (e.g. disturbance) are crucial to understand recruitment trends. Establishment of saplings above treeline was largely restricted to unburned areas. These results indicate fire is a strong demographic filter on treeline dynamics; there is a clear need to frame alpine treeline establishment processes beyond just being a response to climate warming. Long lag periods in treeline change may be expected where recurrent disturbance is a feature of the landscape.}, }
@article {pmid32274060, year = {2020}, author = {Chan, KYK and Tong, CSD}, title = {Temporal variability modulates pH impact on larval sea urchin development: Themed Issue Article: Biomechanics and Climate Change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {coaa008}, pmid = {32274060}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Coastal organisms reside in highly dynamic habitats. Global climate change is expected to alter not only the mean of the physical conditions experienced but also the frequencies and/or the magnitude of fluctuations of environmental factors. Understanding responses in an ecologically relevant context is essential for formulating management strategies. In particular, there are increasing suggestions that exposure to fluctuations could alleviate the impact of climate change-related stressors by selecting for plasticity that may help acclimatization to future conditions. However, it remains unclear whether the presence of fluctuations alone is sufficient to confer such effects or whether the pattern of the fluctuations matters. Therefore, we investigated the role of frequency and initial conditions of the fluctuations on performance by exposing larval sea urchin Heliocidaris crassispina to either constant or fluctuating pH. Reduced pH alone (pH 7.3 vs 8.0) did not affect larval mortality but reduced the growth of larval arms in the static pH treatments. Changes in morphology could affect the swimming mechanics for these small organisms, and geometric morphometric analysis further suggested an overall shape change such that acidified larvae had more U-shaped bodies and shorter arms, which would help maintain stability in moving water. The relative negative impact of lower pH, computed as log response ratio, on larval arm development was smaller when larvae were exposed to pH fluctuations, especially when the change was less frequent (48- vs 24-h cycle). Furthermore, larvae experiencing an initial pH drop, i.e. those where the cycle started at pH 8.0, were more negatively impacted compared with those kept at an initial pH of 7.3 before the cycling started. Our observations suggest that larval responses to climate change stress could not be easily predicted from mean conditions. Instead, to better predict organismal performance in the future ocean, monitoring and investigation of the role of real-time environmental fluctuations along the dispersive pathway is key.}, }
@article {pmid32274006, year = {2020}, author = {Stewart-Sinclair, PJ and Last, KS and Payne, BL and Wilding, TA}, title = {A global assessment of the vulnerability of shellfish aquaculture to climate change and ocean acidification.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {3518-3534}, pmid = {32274006}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Human-induced climate change and ocean acidification (CC-OA) is changing the physical and biological processes occurring within the marine environment, with poorly understood implications for marine life. Within the aquaculture sector, molluskan culture is a relatively benign method of producing a high-quality, healthy, and sustainable protein source for the expanding human population. We modeled the vulnerability of global bivalve mariculture to impacts of CC-OA over the period 2020-2100, under RCP8.5. Vulnerability, assessed at the national level, was dependent on CC-OA-related exposure, taxon-specific sensitivity and adaptive capacity in the sector. Exposure risk increased over time from 2020 to 2100, with ten nations predicted to experience very high exposure to CC-OA in at least one decade during the period 2020-2100. Predicted high sensitivity in developing countries resulted, primarily, from the cultivation of species that have a narrow habitat tolerance, while in some European nations (France, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) high sensitivity was attributable to the relatively high economic value of the shellfish production sector. Predicted adaptive capacity was low in developing countries primarily due to governance issues, while in some developed countries (Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) it was linked to limited species diversity in the sector. Developing and least developed nations (n = 15) were predicted to have the highest overall vulnerability. Across all nations, 2060 was identified as a tipping point where predicted CC-OA will be associated with the greatest challenge to shellfish production. However, rapid declines in mollusk production are predicted to occur in the next decade for some nations, notably North Korea. Shellfish culture offers human society a low-impact source of sustainable protein. This research highlights, on a global scale, the likely extent and nature of the CC-OA-related threat to shellfish culture and this sector enabling early-stage adaption and mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid32272899, year = {2020}, author = {Domche, GN and Valois, P and Canuel, M and Talbot, D and Tessier, M and Aenishaenslin, C and Bouchard, C and Briand, S}, title = {Telephone versus web panel National Survey for monitoring adoption of preventive behaviors to climate change in populations: a case study of Lyme disease in Québec, Canada.}, journal = {BMC medical research methodology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {78}, pmid = {32272899}, issn = {1471-2288}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Humans ; *Lyme Disease/diagnosis/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Quebec/epidemiology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Telephone ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: To monitor the adoption of climate change adaptive behaviors in the population, public health authorities have to conduct national surveys, which can help them target vulnerable subpopulations. To ensure reliable estimates of the adoption of these preventive behaviors, many data collection methods are offered by polling firms. The aim of this study was to compare a telephone survey with a web survey on Lyme disease with regard to their representativeness.<br><br>METHODS: The data comes from a cross-sectional study conducted in the Province of Qu&#xe9;bec (Canada). In total, 1003 people completed the questionnaire by telephone and 956 filled in a web questionnaire. We compared the data obtained from both survey modes with the census data in regard to various demographic characteristics. We then compared the data from both samples in terms of self-reported Lyme disease preventive behaviors and other theoretically associated constructs. We also assessed the measurement invariance (equivalence) of the index of Lyme disease preventive behaviors across the telephone and web samples.<br><br>RESULTS: Findings showed that neither the telephone nor the web panel modes of data collection can be considered more representative of the target population. The results showed that the proportion of item non-responses was significantly higher with the web questionnaire (5.6%) than with the telephone survey (1.3%), and that the magnitude of the differences between the two survey modes was nil for 19 out of the 30 items related to Lyme disease, and small for 11 of them. Results from invariance analyses confirmed the measurement invariance of an index of adaptation to Lyme disease, as well as the mean invariance across both samples.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggested that both samples provided similar estimates of the level of adaptation to Lyme disease preventive behaviors. In sum, the results of our study showed that neither survey mode was superior to the other. Thus, in studies where adaptation to climate change is monitored over time, using a web survey instead of a telephone survey could be more cost-effective, and researchers should consider doing so in future surveys on adaptation to climate. However, we recommend conducting a pretest study before deciding whether to use both survey modes or only one of them.}, }
@article {pmid32272663, year = {2020}, author = {Anser, MK and Hina, T and Hameed, S and Nasir, MH and Ahmad, I and Naseer, MAUR}, title = {Modeling Adaptation Strategies against Climate Change Impacts in Integrated Rice-Wheat Agricultural Production System of Pakistan.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {32272663}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture/*trends ; *Climate Change ; *Oryza ; Pakistan ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {There are numerous anticipated effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in the developing and the developed world. Pakistan is among the top ten most prone nations to CC in the world. The objective of this analysis was to quantify the economic impacts of CC on the agricultural production system and to quantify the impacts of suggested adaptation strategies at the farm level. The study was conducted in the Punjab province's rice-wheat cropping system. For this purpose, climate modeling was carried out by using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, and five global circulation models (GCMs). The crop modeling was carried out by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation models (CSMs), which were tested on the cross-sectional data of 217 farm households collected from the seven strata in the study area. The socio-economic impacts were calculated using the Multidimensional Impact Assessment Tradeoff Analysis Model (TOA-MD). The results revealed that CC's net economic impact using both RCPs and CSMs was negative. In both CSMs, the poverty status was higher in RCP 8.5 than in RCP 4.5. The adaptation package showed positive results in poverty reduction and improvement in the livelihood conditions of the agricultural households. The adoption rate for DSSAT was about 78%, and for APSIM, it was about 68%. The adaptation benefits observed in DSSAT were higher than in APSIM. The results showed that the suggested adaptations could have a significant impact on the resilience of the atmospheric changes. Therefore, without these adaptation measures, i.e., increase in sowing density, improved cultivars, increase in nitrogen use, and fertigation, there would be negative impacts of CC that would capitalize on livelihood and food security in the study area.}, }
@article {pmid32270688, year = {2021}, author = {Agrimonti, C and Lauro, M and Visioli, G}, title = {Smart agriculture for food quality: facing climate change in the 21st century.}, journal = {Critical reviews in food science and nutrition}, volume = {61}, number = {6}, pages = {971-981}, doi = {10.1080/10408398.2020.1749555}, pmid = {32270688}, issn = {1549-7852}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Food Quality ; Organic Agriculture ; }, abstract = {Climate change, with increasing temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, constitutes a severe threat to the environment and all living organisms. In particular, numerous studies suggest severe consequences for the health of crop plants, affecting both the productivity and quality of raw material destined to the food industry. Of particular concern is the reduction of proteins and essential micronutrients as iron and zinc in crops. Fighting this alarming trends is the challenge of Climate-Smart Agriculture with the double goal of reducing environmental impacts (use of pesticides, nitrogen and phosphorus leaching, soil erosion, water depletion and contamination) and improving raw material and consequently food quality. Organic farming, biofertilizers and to a lesser extent nano-carriers, improve the antioxidant properties of fruits, but the data about proteins and micronutrients are rather contradictory. On the other hand, advanced devices and Precision Agriculture allow the cultivations to be more profitable, efficient, contributing more and more to reduce pest diseases and to increase the quality of agricultural products and food safety. Thus, nowadays adoption of technologies applied to sustainable farming systems is a challenging and dynamic issue for facing negative trends due to environmental impacts and climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid32270268, year = {2020}, author = {Keret, NM and Mutanen, MJ and Orell, MI and Itämies, JH and Välimäki, PM}, title = {Climate change-driven elevational changes among boreal nocturnal moths.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {192}, number = {4}, pages = {1085-1098}, pmid = {32270268}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {258638//Academy of Finland/ ; 277984//Academy of Finland/ ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Finland ; *Moths ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has shifted geographical ranges of species northwards or to higher altitudes on elevational gradients. These changes have been associated with increases in ambient temperatures. For ectotherms in seasonal environments, however, life history theory relies largely on the length of summer, which varies somewhat independently of ambient temperature per se. Extension of summer reduces seasonal time constraints and enables species to establish in new areas as a result of over-wintering stage reaching in due time. The reduction of time constraints is also predicted to prolong organisms' breeding season when reproductive potential is under selection. We studied temporal change in the summer length and its effect on species' performance by combining long-term data on the occurrence and abundance of nocturnal moths with weather conditions in a boreal location at Värriötunturi fell in NE Finland. We found that summers have lengthened on average 5 days per decade from the late 1970s, profoundly due to increasing delays in the onset of winters. Moth abundance increased with increasing season length a year before. Most of the species occurrences expanded upwards in elevation. Moth communities in low elevation pine heath forest and middle elevation mountain birch forest have become inseparable. Yet, the flight periods have remained unchanged, probably due to unpredictable variation in proximate conditions (weather) that hinders life histories from selection. We conclude that climate change-driven changes in the season length have potential to affect species' ranges and affect the structure of insect assemblages, which may contribute to alteration of ecosystem-level processes.}, }
@article {pmid32270055, year = {2020}, author = {Kentros, PA}, title = {Climate change and health-Stopping the merchants of doubt.}, journal = {Health science reports}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {e150}, pmid = {32270055}, issn = {2398-8835}, }
@article {pmid32269821, year = {2020}, author = {Crear, DP and Brill, RW and Averilla, LML and Meakem, SC and Weng, KC}, title = {In the face of climate change and exhaustive exercise: the physiological response of an important recreational fish species.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {200049}, pmid = {32269821}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Cobia (Rachycentron canadum) support recreational fisheries along the US mid- and south-Atlantic states and have been recently subjected to increased fishing effort, primarily during their spawning season in coastal habitats where increasing temperatures and expanding hypoxic zones are occurring due to climate change. We therefore undertook a study to quantify the physiological abilities of cobia to withstand increases in temperature and hypoxia, including their ability to recover from exhaustive exercise. Respirometry was conducted on cobia from Chesapeake Bay to determine aerobic scope, critical oxygen saturation, ventilation volume and the time to recover from exhaustive exercise under temperature and oxygen conditions projected to be more common in inshore areas by the middle and end of this century. Cobia physiologically tolerated predicted mid- and end-of-century temperatures (28-32°C) and oxygen concentrations as low as 1.7-2.4 mg l[-1]. Our results indicated cobia can withstand environmental fluctuations that occur in coastal habitats and the broad environmental conditions their prey items can tolerate. However, at these high temperatures, some cobia did suffer post-exercise mortality. It appears cobia will be able to withstand near-future climate impacts in coastal habitats like Chesapeake Bay, but as conditions worsen, catch-and-release fishing may result in higher mortality than under present conditions.}, }
@article {pmid32269583, year = {2020}, author = {Muoki, CR and Maritim, TK and Oluoch, WA and Kamunya, SM and Bore, JK}, title = {Combating Climate Change in the Kenyan Tea Industry.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {339}, pmid = {32269583}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change triggered by global warming poses a major threat to agricultural systems globally. This phenomenon is characterized by emergence of pests and diseases, extreme weather events, such as prolonged drought, high intensity rains, hailstones and frosts, which are becoming more frequent ultimately impacting negatively to agricultural production including rain-fed tea cultivation. Kenya is predominantly an agricultural based economy, with the tea sector generating about 26% of the total export earnings and about 4% gross domestic product (GDP). In the recent years, however, the country has witnessed unstable trends in tea production associated with climate driven stresses. Toward mitigation and adaptation of climate change, multiple approaches for impact assessment, intensity prediction and adaptation have been advanced in the Kenyan tea sub-sector. Further, pressure on tea breeders to release improved climate-compatible cultivars for the rapidly deteriorating environment has resulted in the adoption of a multi-targeted approach seeking to understand the complex molecular regulatory networks associated with biotic and abiotic stresses adaptation and tolerance in tea. Genetic modeling, a powerful tool that assists in breeding process, has also been adopted for selection of tea cultivars for optimal performance under varying climatic conditions. A range of physiological and biochemical responses known to counteract the effects of environmental stresses in most plants that include lowering the rates of cellular growth and net photosynthesis, stomatal closure, and the accumulation of organic solutes such as sugar alcohols, or osmolytes have been used to support breeding programs through screening of new tea cultivars suitable for changing environment. This review describes simulation models combined with high resolution climate change scenarios required to quantify the relative importance of climate change on tea production. In addition, both biodiversity and ecosystem based approaches are described as a part of an overall adaptation strategy to mitigate adverse effects of climate change on tea in Kenya and gaps highlighted for urgent investigations.}, }
@article {pmid32269079, year = {2020}, author = {Rosenbloom, D and Markard, J and Geels, FW and Fuenfschilling, L}, title = {Opinion: Why carbon pricing is not sufficient to mitigate climate change-and how "sustainability transition policy" can help.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {16}, pages = {8664-8668}, pmid = {32269079}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon/adverse effects/*economics ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods ; Costs and Cost Analysis/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Policy ; Sustainable Development/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid32268283, year = {2020}, author = {Das, I and Lauria, V and Kay, S and Cazcarro, I and Arto, I and Fernandes, JA and Hazra, S}, title = {Effects of climate change and management policies on marine fisheries productivity in the north-east coast of India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {724}, number = {}, pages = {138082}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138082}, pmid = {32268283}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The study covers two important deltaic systems of the north-east coast of India, viz. the Bengal and Mahanadi delta that support about 1.25 million people. The changes in potential marine fish production and socio-economic conditions were modelled for these two deltas under long-term changes in environmental conditions (sea surface temperature and primary production) to the end of the 21st century. Our results show that an increased temperature (by 4 °C) has a negative impact on fisheries productivity, which was projected to decrease by 5%. At the species level, Bombay duck, Indian mackerel and threadfin bream showed an increasing trend in the biomass of potential catches under the sustainable fishing scenario. However, under the business as usual and overfishing scenarios, our results suggest reduced catch for both states. On the other hand, mackerel tuna, Indian oil sardine, and hilsa fisheries showed a projected reduction in potential catch also for the sustainable fishing scenario. The socio-economic models projected an increase of up to 0.67% (involving 0.8 billion USD) in consumption by 2050 even under the best management scenario. The GDP per capita was projected to face a loss of 1.7 billion USD by 2050. The loss of low-cost fisheries would negatively impact the poorer coastal population since they strongly depend upon these fisheries as a source of protein. Nevertheless, adaptation strategies tend to have a negative correlation with poverty and food insecurity which needs to be addressed separately to make the sector-specific efforts effective. This work can be considered as the baseline model for future researchers and the policymakers to explore potential sustainable management options for the studied regions.}, }
@article {pmid32266545, year = {2020}, author = {Ye, B and Zhang, X and Zhang, X and Zheng, C}, title = {Climate change, environmental impact, and human health.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {715-717}, doi = {10.1007/s10653-020-00554-x}, pmid = {32266545}, issn = {1573-2983}, }
@article {pmid32265296, year = {2020}, author = {Ragavan, MI and Marcil, LE and Garg, A}, title = {Climate Change as a Social Determinant of Health.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {145}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {32265296}, issn = {1098-4275}, support = {KL2 TR001856/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; Health Care Costs/*trends ; Humans ; Social Determinants of Health/economics/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid32260074, year = {2020}, author = {Šolić, M and Šantić, D and Šestanović, S and Bojanić, N and Jozić, S and Ordulj, M and Tomaš, AV and Kušpilić, G}, title = {Changes in the Trophic Pathways within the Microbial Food Web in the Global Warming Scenario: An Experimental Study in the Adriatic Sea.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {32260074}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {A recent analysis of the Mediterranean Sea surface temperature showed significant annual warming. Since small picoplankton microorganisms play an important role in all major biogeochemical cycles, fluxes and processes occurring in marine systems (the changes at the base of the food web) as a response to human-induced temperature increase, could be amplified through the trophic chains and could also significantly affect different aspects of the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In this study, manipulative laboratory growth/grazing experiments were performed under in situ simulated conditions to study the structural and functional changes within the microbial food web after a 3 °C increase in temperature. The results show that a rise in temperature affects the changes in: (1) the growth and grazing rates of picoplankton, (2) their growth efficiency, (3) carrying capacities, (4) sensitivity of their production and grazing mortality to temperature, (5) satisfying protistan grazer carbon demands, (6) their preference in the selection of prey, (7) predator niche breadth and their overlap, (8) apparent uptake rates of nutrients, and (9) carbon biomass flow through the microbial food web. Furthermore, temperature affects the autotrophic and heterotrophic components of picoplankton in different ways.}, }
@article {pmid32258277, year = {2020}, author = {Kreft, CS and Huber, R and Wüpper, DJ and Finger, R}, title = {Data on farmers' adoption of climate change mitigation measures, individual characteristics, risk attitudes and social influences in a region of Switzerland.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {30}, number = {}, pages = {105410}, doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2020.105410}, pmid = {32258277}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {We present survey data on the adoption of agricultural climate change mitigation measures collected among 105 farmers in a region in Switzerland in 2019. We surveyed measures farmers use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the farm level. The list comprised 13 measures related to energy production and use, herd and manure management as well as crop production. Additionally, data was collected with regard to farmers' individual concerns and perceptions of climate change, attitudes and goals, self-efficacy and locus of control, income satisfaction and social influences. Moreover, risk preferences as well as loss aversion and probability weighting were elicited using a multiple price list. The survey data was matched with cantonal farm census data, containing information on farm size, farm type and age of the farmers.}, }
@article {pmid32257090, year = {2020}, author = {Stathi, E and Kougioumoutzis, K and Abraham, EM and Trigas, P and Ganopoulos, I and Avramidou, EV and Tani, E}, title = {Population genetic variability and distribution of the endangered Greek endemic Cicer graecum under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {AoB PLANTS}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {plaa007}, pmid = {32257090}, issn = {2041-2851}, abstract = {The Mediterranean hot spot includes numerous endemic and socio-economically important plant species seriously threatened by climate change and habitat loss. In this study, the genetic diversity of five populations of Cicer graecum, an endangered endemic species from northern Peloponnisos, Greece and a wild relative of the cultivated Cicer arietinum, was investigated using inter-simple sequence repeats (ISSRs) and amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers in order to determine levels and structure of genetic variability. Nei's gene diversity by ISSR and AFLP markers indicated medium to high genetic diversity at the population level. Moreover, AMOVA results suggest that most of the variation exists within (93 % for AFLPs and 65 % for ISSRs), rather than among populations. Furthermore, Principal Component Analysis based on ISSRs positively correlated the genetic differentiation among the populations to the geographic distances, suggesting that the gene flow among distant populations is limited. The ecological adaptation of C. graecum populations was also investigated by correlation of their genetic diversity with certain environmental variables. Aridity arose as the dominant factor positively affecting the genetic diversity of C. graecum populations. We modelled the realized climatic niche of C. graecum in an ensemble forecasting scheme under three different global circulation models and two climate change scenarios. In all cases, a severe range contraction for C. graecum is projected, highlighting the high extinction risk that is probably going to face during the coming decades. These results could be a valuable tool towards the implementation of an integrated in situ and ex situ conservation scheme approach for activating management programmes for this endemic and threatened species.}, }
@article {pmid32252741, year = {2020}, author = {Luitel, DR and Siwakoti, M and Joshi, MD and Rangaswami, M and Jha, PK}, title = {Potential suitable habitat of Eleusine coracana (L) gaertn (Finger millet) under the climate change scenarios in Nepal.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {19}, pmid = {32252741}, issn = {1472-6785}, support = {AID-OAA-L-15-00001//USAID/International ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Eleusine ; Nepal ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Finger millet is the fourth major crop in Nepal and is cultivated in a traditional integrated subsistence system. Timely rain and appropriate temperature predominately affects crop distribution and yield. Climate change is evident in Nepal and it is imperative to understand how it affects habitat suitability of finger millet. Main objective of this study was to map the current suitable habitat and predicting the potential changes in the future under different climate scenarios in Nepal. Habitat mapping is important for maximizing production and minimizing the loss of local landraces.<br><br>RESULTS: Maxent model was used in this study to quantify the current suitable habitat and changes in the future habitat suitability of finger millet, based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) in two different time periods (2050 and 2070AD) using climatic predictive variables and species localities. The model shows that 39.7% (58512.71&#xa0;km[2]) area of Nepal is highly suitable for finger millet, with cultivation mostly between 96 and 2300&#xa0;m above sea level. Eastern and central parts of Nepal have more suitable areas than western parts. Our research clearly shows that the future climatic suitable area of finger millet would shrink by 4.3 to 8.9% in 2050 and 8.9-10.5% under different RCPs by 2070.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Finger millet is mostly cultivated in mid-hill terraces. The substantial increase in temperature due to climate change may be one reason for decrease in habitat suitability of finger millet. This situation would further threat loss of local landraces of finger millet in the future. The findings can help in planning and policy framing for climate resilient smart agriculture practice.}, }
@article {pmid32251486, year = {2020}, author = {Cong, M and Xu, Y and Tang, L and Yang, W and Jian, M}, title = {Predicting the dynamic distribution of Sphagnum bogs in China under climate change since the last interglacial period.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e0230969}, pmid = {32251486}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; *Sphagnopsida ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution bioclimatic environmental datasets and 71 bog center point locations, we employed a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to reconstruct and predict the spatial-temporal geographical distribution patterns of Sphagnum bogs from the last interglacial (LIG) period to two typical CO2 representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) in the future. We further computed the migratory paths of the distribution center points. Finally, a jackknife test was used to uncover the crucial environmental factors restricting the geographical distribution of the bogs. Our data indicated that the MaxEnt niche model had a high simulation precision with an area under the ROC curve value of 0.957. Spatially, the suitable bog habitats are currently centralized in northeastern China, including the Greater Khingan Mountains, the Lesser Khingan Mountains, and the Changbai Mountains, as well as peripheral areas of the Sichuan Basin. Temporally, the contours of Sphagnum bogs were similar to the present and rendered from the last glacial maximum (LMG) period, and had much more total area than the current. The total area in LIG was nearly the same as the current because of the similar climate. It was worth noting that there would be a reduction of the total area in the future. Loss of area occurred at the edges of bogs, especially under RCP8.5. The distribution center of bogs will shift to the northwest in the immediate future. The precipitation of driest month, the mean temperature of warmest quarter and the precipitation of warmest quarter were identified as crucial climatic factors affecting the distribution of Sphagnum bogs. Overall, our research provides scientific evidence for the long-term protection and effective management of these rare, precious natural resources and suggestions for in situ conservation.}, }
@article {pmid32250812, year = {2020}, author = {Wei, D and Zhao, H and Zhang, J and Qi, Y and Wang, X}, title = {Human activities alter response of alpine grasslands on Tibetan Plateau to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {262}, number = {}, pages = {110335}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110335}, pmid = {32250812}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Grassland ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Temperature ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {The world's largest alpine pastures are found on the Tibetan Plateau, where considerable climate changes and human impacts have been experienced. Identifying their contributions to terrestrial productivity is essential if we are to adapt to, or mitigate the effects of, climate change. In this work, we begin by showing how the current warming and wetting of the climate over the last three decades has favored plant growth, as consistently captured by satellite observations and 15 models. However, the interactions between climate factors explain less of the variation in greenness observed by satellites after the 2000s, implying non-climatic influences. Next, we show that there is a significant negative impact of livestock grazing on pasture greenness, especially in peak summer. Official statistics across 72 counties verify these negative impacts, especially in poorer pastures with a higher density of grazing livestock. The variation in grazing density has a stronger negative effect on vegetation growth during the early part of the growing season after the 2000s, as compared with that before the 2000s. We found a compensatory effect of grazing and climate on alpine grassland growth, and the grazing regulates the response of vegetation greenness to climate change by modulating the dependency of vegetation growth on temperature. Thus, we suggest there is a weakening influence of climate on the greenness of alpine pastures, largely due to a strengthening influence of management, which should be considered by both the scientific community and policymakers.}, }
@article {pmid32250804, year = {2020}, author = {Li, L and Zha, Y and Zhang, J and Li, Y and Lyu, H}, title = {Effect of terrestrial vegetation growth on climate change in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {262}, number = {}, pages = {110321}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110321}, pmid = {32250804}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Globally, some vegetation has grown significantly over the past decades, but the climate benefits remain unclear, especially in the temperate regions. Understanding the biophysical effects and identifying the potential of vegetation will help to mitigate climate change. Here, we propose a vegetation-adjusted temperature index to understand how terrestrial vegetation growth in China affects the air temperature for 2001-2013, based on satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index, near-surface air temperature (Ta) and the land surface temperature. Grassland growth and cropland growth are found to cool the Ta by -0.08 ± 0.32 °C (mean ± one standard deviation) and -0.06 ± 0.28 °C, respectively. Forest growth results in net climate warming by 0.05 ± 0.29 °C. Biophysical effects, elevation and background climate are used to explain the climate impacts of vegetation. Results show that the biophysical effects dominate the climate impact. More specifically, evapotranspiration (ET) controls the daytime climate impact, and at night, an indirect effect of albedo (the release of daytime heat storage) dominates it. Lower precipitation, temperature and elevation reinforce the warming potential. Moreover, the effects of albedo and ET on climate are nonlinear. During the day, although lower albedo absorbs more incoming radiation, it releases more extra heat per unit ET that can compensate for the increased incoming radiation. At night, the warming effect reflects the release of daytime heat storage. Overall, tropical vegetation growth (-0.04 ± 0.10 °C) and warm temperate vegetation growth (-0.08 ± 0.15 °C) achieve the climatic benefits. Overall, the method proposed contributes to quantitatively evaluate the role of afforestation plan on regional climate cooling, and provides some policy/practical implications for future afforestation projects. Future afforestation projects should carefully consider the biophysical process and background climate to mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32250802, year = {2020}, author = {Ma, B and Xie, Y and Zhang, T and Zeng, W and Hu, G}, title = {Identification of conflict between wildlife living spaces and human activity spaces and adjustments in/around protected areas under climate change：A case study in the Three-River Source Region.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {262}, number = {}, pages = {110322}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110322}, pmid = {32250802}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Overlap between wildlife living spaces and human activity spaces represents one of the main causes of human-wildlife conflict. It is therefore necessary to identify and adjust the spatial distribution of conflicts because climate change will modify the ranges and locations of species. The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the distribution of wildlife living spaces under current and future climatic conditions (RCP4.5 scenario) based on species distribution data and environmental data from the Three-River Source Region. Furthermore, the logistic-cellular automata model was used to simulate the changes in human activity spaces (construction land and arable land) by 2050. Areas of overlap between wildlife living spaces and human activity spaces were determined by overlay analysis. Then, the areas of construction and arable land that would conflict with wildlife were redistributed outside highly suitable wildlife living spaces. In addition, ecological corridors connecting current and future living spaces were planned for the migration of certain species in response to climate change based on the minimum cumulative resistance model. The results showed that the areas of highly suitable wildlife living spaces will decrease under the influence of climate change if global warming occurs. In the future, the area of overlap between highly suitable wildlife living spaces and construction land will be 125 km[2], and that between highly suitable wildlife living spaces and arable land will be 340 km[2]. The redistribution of these areas will cause human activity spaces to become more concentrated. Moreover, 110 ecological corridors should be constructed across roads in the Three-River Source Region.}, }
@article {pmid32250799, year = {2020}, author = {Martín-Arias, J and Martínez-Santos, P and Andreo, B}, title = {Modelling the effects of climate change and population growth in four intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers. The Mijas range, southern Spain.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {262}, number = {}, pages = {110316}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110316}, pmid = {32250799}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Groundwater ; Mediterranean Region ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Growth ; Spain ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Groundwater is key to economic growth in the Mediterranean region. This is particularly true of areas such as southern Spain, where aquifers underpin social development by supplying water to a booming tourist industry. Intensive groundwater use raises sustainability concerns, as pumping often exceeds the long-term recharge rate. Climate change and population growth are likely to exacerbate the water supply challenge in the coming years, due to the expected decrease in rainfall and to increasing competition among users. This paper examines some of the main aquifers in the Costa del Sol region, one of Spain's leading tourist destinations, where intensive groundwater extraction has led to water table drawdowns and the desiccation of all major springs. A numerical model was developed and calibrated for the purpose of evaluating the likely evolution of the system in the future. Downscaled scenarios from global circulation models were coupled with population growth forecasts to establish a range of plausible water management scenarios. Given the relatively small size of the aquifers and the limited recharge rate, the current pumping patterns appear unsustainable. Results suggest that drawdowns in excess of 150 m could take place within the next decade, thus compromising domestic supplies.}, }
@article {pmid32247907, year = {2020}, author = {Dahal, P and Shrestha, ML and Panthi, J and Pradhananga, D}, title = {Modeling the future impacts of climate change on water availability in the Karnali River Basin of Nepal Himalaya.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {185}, number = {}, pages = {109430}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109430}, pmid = {32247907}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Nepal ; Rivers ; Water ; }, abstract = {It's unequivocal that the global climate is changing, including the rise in atmospheric temperature and variability in amount and pattern of precipitation, and the rate of temperature change in the Himalayan region is higher than the global average. Since precipitation and temperature are the major driving factors of water resources in the Himalayas both upstream and downstream regions, it is important to understand theimpacts of climate change in water resource availability in the future. In this study, we analyzed the historical hydro-climate data and developed a suitable ensemble of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate models for the Karnali River Basin (KRB) in western Nepal and assessed the future water availability in different climate scenarios using a semi-distributed catchment scale hydrological model the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The climate data analysis shows that the atmospheric temperature is rising throughout the basin but there is high spatial variability in precipitation trend. The historical river discharge data analysis do not show any significant trend, however, there is some inter-annual variability. Future projection shows that the annual precipitation amount will increase compared to the baseline so does the river discharge. However, this increase is not uniform for all seasons. The post-monsoon season having the lowest observed precipitation will get lesser amount of precipitation in the future and the river discharge also follows the same trend. These anomalies play a crucial role in determining the future water availability for agriculture, hydropower, ecosystem functioning and its services availability to the people living in the KRB as well as in the downstream region.}, }
@article {pmid32246848, year = {2020}, author = {Allan, RP and Barlow, M and Byrne, MP and Cherchi, A and Douville, H and Fowler, HJ and Gan, TY and Pendergrass, AG and Rosenfeld, D and Swann, ALS and Wilcox, LJ and Zolina, O}, title = {Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1472}, number = {1}, pages = {49-75}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14337}, pmid = {32246848}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Floods ; Humans ; *Rain ; Temperature ; *Water Cycle ; }, abstract = {Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.}, }
@article {pmid32241685, year = {2020}, author = {Schwartz, SA}, title = {Climate change, Covid-19, preparedness, and consciousness.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {141-144}, pmid = {32241685}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {COVID-19 ; Civil Defense ; *Climate Change ; Consciousness ; Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology ; Environmental Exposure/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid32240359, year = {2020}, author = {Chitu, E and Paltineanu, C}, title = {Timing of phenological stages for apple and pear trees under climate change in a temperate-continental climate.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {8}, pages = {1263-1271}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01903-2}, pmid = {32240359}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {Project PN-III-P1-1.2-PCCDI-2017-0721 - INTER-ASPA//Romanian Ministry of Research and Innovation/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Malus ; *Pyrus ; Romania ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Trees ; }, abstract = {The study examines the consequences of climate change in Malus (apple) and Pyrus (pear) on four phenological stages: bud swelling (code 51 BBCH Monograph), budburst (code 53), beginning of flowering (code 61), and end of flowering (code 69) in the temperate-continental climate of southern Romania. The hypothesis tested is how much the onset dates (TOD) of phenology stages moved earlier due to climate change. Weather and phenological data were collected from 1969 to 2018 and were statistically processed. There was an increase in air temperature (T) during the first 5 months in the year, with a significant rise in March and April; significant linear relationships show an advance in TOD with the years elapsed. Inverse linear relationships were found between TOD, maximum (Tmax), mean (Tmean), minimum (Tmin) temperature, and sunshine hours (Sh). The relationships between TOD and Tmax were the strongest. The early stages of flowering phenology are advancing more strongly than later flowering stages. For apple, in the last 50 years, there was an advance of 13.8 days for stage 51, 14.8 days for stage 53, 10.7 days for stage 61, and only 7.3 days for stage 69; for pear trees, the advance was lower: 10 days for stage 51, 9 days for stage 53, 6.7 days for stage 61, and only 2.1 days for stage 69. These findings, which might be extrapolated to similar environments, have important consequences in fruit growing, like the occurrence of climate accidents due to late frost, insect pollination, and application of pesticides and irrigation water.}, }
@article {pmid32240191, year = {2020}, author = {Hashida, Y and Withey, J and Lewis, DJ and Newman, T and Kline, JD}, title = {Anticipating changes in wildlife habitat induced by private forest owners' adaptation to climate change and carbon policy.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {e0230525}, pmid = {32240191}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Animals, Wild ; *Biodiversity ; Carbon/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Forestry/*methods ; Forests ; Ownership ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Conserving forests to provide ecosystem services and biodiversity will be a key environmental challenge as society strives to adapt to climate change. The ecosystem services and biodiversity that forests provide will be influenced by the behaviors of numerous individual private landowners as they alter their use of forests in response to climate change and any future carbon pricing policies that emerge. We evaluated the impact of forest landowners' likely adaptation behaviors on potential habitat for 35 terrestrial, forest-dependent vertebrates across three U.S. Pacific states. In particular, we couple a previously estimated empirical-economic model of forest management with spatially explicit species' range and habitat associations to quantify the effects of adaptation to climate change and carbon pricing on potential habitat for our focal species (amphibians, birds and mammals) drawn from state agency lists of species of conservation concern. We show that both climate change and carbon pricing policies would likely encourage adaptation away from currently prevalent coniferous forest types, such as Douglas-fir, largely through harvest and planting decisions. This would reduce potential habitat for a majority of the focal species we studied across all three vertebrate taxa. The total anticipated habitat loss for amphibians, birds and mammals considered species of state concern would exceed total habitat gained, and the net loss in habitat per decade would accelerate over time. Carbon payments to forest landowners likely would lead to unintended localized habitat losses especially in Douglas-fir dominant forest types, and encourage more hardwoods on private forest lands. Our study highlights potential tradeoffs that could arise from pricing one ecosystem service (e.g., carbon) while leaving others (e.g., wildlife habitat) unpriced. Our study demonstrates the importance of anticipating potential changes in ecosystem services and biodiversity resulting from forest landowners' climate adaptation behavior and accounting for a broader set of environmental benefits and costs when designing policies to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32237788, year = {2020}, author = {Ozarslan, R and Sekerci, Y}, title = {Fractional order oxygen-plankton system under climate change.}, journal = {Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {033131}, doi = {10.1063/1.5129766}, pmid = {32237788}, issn = {1089-7682}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; *Oxygen Consumption ; Phytoplankton/*growth &amp; development ; Zooplankton/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Global climate change affects marine species including phytoplankton, which constitute the base of the marine food web, by changing the primary productivity. Global warming affects the ocean surface temperature, in turn leading to a change in the oxygen production of phytoplankton. In this work, the fractional oxygen-phytoplankton-zooplankton mathematical model is considered by the Caputo fractional operator. The production rate of photosynthesis is determined by a temperature function. The model is, therefore, based on the idea that the rate of photosynthesis changes due to the impact of global warming, while phytoplankton oxygen production increases and decreases. We analyze the model with the Caputo fractional derivative differently from the classical case of the model and we compare the results with the integer order derivative when α tends to 1. Existence and uniqueness properties of the oxygen-plankton model have been proved by means of a local Lipschitz condition. It was shown that the species are more sustainable than its corresponding classical case in the Caputo model. Our results show that the effect of global warming on the oxygen production rate has been observed to be quite severe, resulting in oxygen depletion and plankton extinction.}, }
@article {pmid32235149, year = {2020}, author = {Leddin, D and Macrae, F}, title = {Climate Change: Implications for Gastrointestinal Health and Disease.}, journal = {Journal of clinical gastroenterology}, volume = {54}, number = {5}, pages = {393-397}, doi = {10.1097/MCG.0000000000001336}, pmid = {32235149}, issn = {1539-2031}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The earth's atmosphere has warmed by about 1°C compared with preindustrial temperature. This is producing changes in the earth's climate and weather which have implications for gastrointestinal health and disease. Climate change will exacerbate current challenges with regard to provision of adequate nutrition and access to clean water. An increase in high rainfall events, flooding and droughts will be associated with an increase in enteric infections and hepatitis. Changes in habitat may result in altered distribution of gastrointestinal illness such as Vibrio cholera. Climate change will force migration between countries, and within countries, and will drive relocation from rural to urban areas, further straining sanitation and clean water provision. The infrastructure required to the delivery of gastrointestinal care is vulnerable to extreme weather events which will become more frequent. The Gastroenterology community needs to join the debate on climate change by organizing, educating, advocating, and supporting our political leaders as they face the enormous challenges posed by global warming.}, }
@article {pmid32229547, year = {2020}, author = {Haines, A and Scheelbeek, P}, title = {The health case for urgent action on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {368}, number = {}, pages = {m1103}, pmid = {32229547}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; Leadership ; *Professional Role ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Health professionals have a leading role}, }
@article {pmid32229481, year = {2020}, author = {Harmer, A and Eder, B and Gepp, S and Leetz, A and van de Pas, R}, title = {WHO should declare climate change a public health emergency.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {368}, number = {}, pages = {m797}, pmid = {32229481}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Emergencies ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {Rapid and potentially irreversible climate change poses a direct threat to global public health. Andrew Harmer and colleagues argue that WHO should recognise this in the same way as global threats from specific diseases}, }
@article {pmid32228798, year = {2020}, author = {Bryson, JM and Bishop-Williams, KE and Berrang-Ford, L and Nunez, EC and Lwasa, S and Namanya, DB and Indigenous Health Adaptation To Climate Change Research Team,  and Harper, SL}, title = {Neglected Tropical Diseases in the Context of Climate Change in East Africa: A Systematic Scoping Review.}, journal = {The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene}, volume = {102}, number = {6}, pages = {1443-1454}, pmid = {32228798}, issn = {1476-1645}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; Humans ; Neglected Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {East Africa is highly affected by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), which are projected to be exacerbated by climate change. Consequently, understanding what research has been conducted and what knowledge gaps remain regarding NTDs and climate change is crucial to informing public health interventions and climate change adaptation. We conducted a systematic scoping review to describe the extent, range, and nature of publications examining relationships between NTDs and climatic factors in East Africa. We collated all relevant English and French publications indexed in PubMed[®], Web of Science™ Core Collection, and CAB Direct[©] databases published prior to 2019. Ninety-six publications were included for review. Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia had high rates of publication, whereas countries in the Western Indian Ocean region were underrepresented. Most publications focused on schistosomiasis (n = 28, 29.2%), soil-transmitted helminthiases (n = 16, 16.7%), or human African trypanosomiasis (n = 14, 14.6%). Precipitation (n = 91, 94.8%) and temperature (n = 54, 56.3%) were frequently investigated climatic factors, whereas consideration of droughts (n = 10, 10.4%) and floods (n = 4, 4.2%) was not prominent. Publications reporting on associations between NTDs and changing climate were increasing over time. There was a decrease in the reporting of Indigenous identity and age factors over time. Overall, there were substantial knowledge gaps for several countries and for many NTDs. To better understand NTDs in the context of a changing climate, it would be helpful to increase research on underrepresented diseases and regions, consider demographic and social factors in research, and characterize how these factors modify the effects of climatic variables on NTDs in East Africa.}, }
@article {pmid32223316, year = {2020}, author = {Alahmad, B and Khraishah, H and Shakarchi, AF and Albaghdadi, M and Rajagopalan, S and Koutrakis, P and Jaffer, FA}, title = {Cardiovascular Mortality and Exposure to Heat in an Inherently Hot Region: Implications for Climate Change.}, journal = {Circulation}, volume = {141}, number = {15}, pages = {1271-1273}, pmid = {32223316}, issn = {1524-4539}, support = {R01 ES019616/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Cardiovascular Diseases/*etiology/*mortality ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Survival Analysis ; Young Adult ; }, }
@article {pmid32223020, year = {2020}, author = {Ma, J and Zhou, L and Foltz, GR and Qu, X and Ying, J and Tokinaga, H and Mechoso, CR and Li, J and Gu, X}, title = {Hydrological cycle changes under global warming and their effects on multiscale climate variability.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1472}, number = {1}, pages = {21-48}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14335}, pmid = {32223020}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Despite a globally uniform increase in the concentrations of emitted greenhouse gases, radiatively forced surface warming can have significant spatial variations. These define warming patterns that depend on preexisting climate states and through atmospheric and oceanic dynamics can drive changes of the hydrological cycle with global-scale feedbacks. Our study reviews research progress on the hydrological cycle changes and their effects on multiscale climate variability. Overall, interannual variability is expected to become stronger in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and weaker in the Atlantic. Global monsoon rainfall is projected to increase and the wet season to lengthen despite a slowdown of atmospheric circulation. Strong variations among monsoon regions are likely to emerge, depending on surface conditions such as orography and land-sea contrast. Interdecadal climate variability is expected to modulate the globally averaged surface temperature change with pronounced anomalies in the polar and equatorial regions, leading to prolonged periods of enhanced or reduced warming. It is emphasized that advanced global observations, regional simulations, and process-level investigations are essential for improvements in understanding, predicting, and projecting the modes of climate variability, monsoon sensitivity, and energetic fluctuations in a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid32222925, year = {2020}, author = {Li, Y and Li, F and Yang, F and Xie, X and Yin, L}, title = {Spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on food production: case study of Shaanxi Province, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {16}, pages = {19826-19835}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08447-3}, pmid = {32222925}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {41701094//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2018JQ4024//Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production ; *Edible Grain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The climate change on the impact of grain production potential has significant regional differences. Researchers have studied the grain production potential of various crop combinations or focused on single crop types in a typical area; however, the regional differences of the climate change on the impact of grain production potential were neglected. This paper used the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ 3.0) model to focus on the analysis what is the climate change on the impact of grain production potential in different geographic units (Northern Shaanxi Plateau, Guanzhong Basin, Qinba Mountain) in Shaanxi Province of China. The case showed that the precipitation (Pre) what made changes of grain production potential was the most important factor in different geographic units. The increase of Pre had a positive impact on the grain production potential in Northern Shaanxi Plateau and Guanzhong Basin. However, in Qinba Mountain, due to excessive Pre in the Qinba Mountains, the decrease of Pre had a certain positive impact on the grain production potential. The precipitation was less in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau; therefore, its major factors leading to changes of crop production were precipitation and rainfall days. The increase of the mean maximum temperature (Tmx) and the mean minimum temperature (Tmn) had a positive impact of the grain production potential in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau and Guanzhong Basin. The higher temperature had a negative impact on the grain production potential. In Qinba Mountain, the increase of the temperature has a certain negative impact on the grain production potential. It has more influence of Tmx in the Guanzhong Basin and Qinba Mountain rather than that in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau. Generally speaking, the major climatic factors leading grain production potential were Pre and Tmx in Guanzhong Basin and Qinba Mountain.}, }
@article {pmid32222634, year = {2020}, author = {Babel, MS and Shinde, VR and Sharma, D and Dang, NM}, title = {Measuring water security: A vital step for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {185}, number = {}, pages = {109400}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109400}, pmid = {32222634}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Thailand ; *Water ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change and water are intricately linked. Water is the primary medium through which the impacts of climate change will be felt. Securing the water sector and enhancing water security is, therefore, imperative for any adaptive response to climate change. A precursor in improving water security is to first establish a mechanism to measure it. Only then can incremental and progressive actions be evaluated. This study has developed such a mechanism in the form of a water security assessment framework using an indictor-based methodology. The framework is developed for city-scale analysis because analyses at this scale is more useful in operationalizing water security enhancement. The framework has a three-layered structure comprising five dimensions (broad elements of water security), twelve indicators (areas of interest within the dimensions), and a set of potential variables that can be used to quantify the indicators. The framework has been developed to foster practical interventions for water security enhancement and not as a comparative tool for benchmarking. Hence, while the dimensions and indicators of the framework are fixed, the choice of variables is up to the city depending upon its context. This aspect of the framework, therefore, is meant to help cities introspect internally and move up the water security ladder. The framework culminates into a Water Security Index (WSI), measured on a scale from one to five. The scale is linear and hierarchical in its grade value. The framework was successfully used to assess the water security situation of Bangkok. The study also makes a case for scaling up this intervention for other major cities in Thailand, which can then help implement some of Thailand's key climate change adaptation initiatives such as the Nationally Determined Contributions and the National Climate Change Master Plan.}, }
@article {pmid32222510, year = {2020}, author = {Valdes-Abellan, J and Pardo, MA and Jodar-Abellan, A and Pla, C and Fernandez-Mejuto, M}, title = {Climate change impact on karstic aquifer hydrodynamics in southern Europe semi-arid region using the KAGIS model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {723}, number = {}, pages = {138110}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138110}, pmid = {32222510}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Nowadays, there are many urban settlements in arid and semiarid areas supplied by groundwater from adjacent small aquifers. Climate projections with expected decreases in averages precipitation values jointly with increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall events does not show a clear pattern to how water resources in karstic aquifers are going to evolve. This paper, focused in the province of Alicante (Southeast of Spain), assesses the behaviour of a small karstic aquifer, the Mela aquifer, whose resources supply urban water consumption for close municipalities. We assess the hydrogeological response of the aquifer, through the KAGIS black-box GIS-based model, for the present climate conditions and for the long period analysing the four scenarios provided by the International Panel of Climate Change. Main results prove that, if we do not diminish the greenhouse gas emissions, the climate change impact on the hydrological response of the study aquifer shows a decrease in the flow rate from its unique spring and will be non-existent during the summer months. So, it will be necessary to design supply strategies for these municipalities and to carry out them, meeting budget restrictions and avoiding potential water shortages.}, }
@article {pmid32222010, year = {2020}, author = {Wilson, KL and Tittensor, DP and Worm, B and Lotze, HK}, title = {Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, pages = {3251-3267}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15094}, pmid = {32222010}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Ocean Frontier Institute/International ; RGPIN-2014-04491//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/International ; //Jarislowsky Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Refugium ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32221971, year = {2020}, author = {Enriquez-Urzelai, U and Tingley, R and Kearney, MR and Sacco, M and Palacio, AS and Tejedo, M and Nicieza, AG}, title = {The roles of acclimation and behaviour in buffering climate change impacts along elevational gradients.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {89}, number = {7}, pages = {1722-1734}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13222}, pmid = {32221971}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Rana temporaria ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The vulnerability of species to climate change is jointly influenced by geographic phenotypic variation, acclimation and behavioural thermoregulation. The importance of interactions between these factors, however, remains poorly understood. We demonstrate how advances in mechanistic niche modelling can be used to integrate and assess the influence of these sources of uncertainty in forecasts of climate change impacts. We explored geographic variation in thermal tolerance (i.e. maximum and minimum thermal limits) and its potential for acclimation in juvenile European common frogs Rana temporaria along elevational gradients. Furthermore, we employed a mechanistic niche model (NicheMapR) to assess the relative contributions of phenotypic variation, acclimation and thermoregulation in determining the impacts of climate change on thermal safety margins and activity windows. Our analyses revealed that high-elevation populations had slightly wider tolerance ranges driven by increases in heat tolerance but lower potential for acclimation. Plausibly, wider thermal fluctuations at high elevations favour more tolerant but less plastic phenotypes, thus reducing the risk of encountering stressful temperatures during unpredictable extreme events. Biophysical models of thermal exposure indicated that observed phenotypic and plastic differences provide limited protection from changing climates. Indeed, the risk of reaching body temperatures beyond the species' thermal tolerance range was similar across elevations. In contrast, the ability to seek cooler retreat sites through behavioural adjustments played an essential role in buffering populations from thermal extremes predicted under climate change. Predicted climate change also altered current activity windows, but high-elevation populations were predicted to remain more temporally constrained than lowland populations. Our results demonstrate that elevational variation in thermal tolerances and acclimation capacity might be insufficient to buffer temperate amphibians from predicted climate change; instead, behavioural thermoregulation may be the only effective mechanism to avoid thermal stress under future climates.}, }
@article {pmid32220418, year = {2020}, author = {López, MS and Santi, MF and Müller, GV and Gómez, AA and Staffolani, C and Pomares, LA}, title = {Corrigendum to "Climate change communication by the local digital press in northeastern Argentina: An ethical analysis" [Sci. Total Environ. 707 (2020), 1-7/135737].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {721}, number = {}, pages = {137855}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137855}, pmid = {32220418}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid32220327, year = {2020}, author = {Hastings, RA and Rutterford, LA and Freer, JJ and Collins, RA and Simpson, SD and Genner, MJ}, title = {Climate Change Drives Poleward Increases and Equatorward Declines in Marine Species.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {1572-1577.e2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2020.02.043}, pmid = {32220327}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Alismatales/physiology ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; Birds/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/physiology ; Invertebrates/physiology ; Mammals/physiology ; Phytoplankton/physiology ; *Plant Dispersal ; Population Dynamics ; Reptiles/physiology ; Seaweed/physiology ; Zooplankton/physiology ; }, abstract = {Marine environments have increased in temperature by an average of 1°C since pre-industrial (1850) times [1]. Given that species ranges are closely allied to physiological thermal tolerances in marine organisms [2], it may therefore be expected that ocean warming would lead to abundance increases at poleward side of ranges and abundance declines toward the equator [3]. Here, we report a global analysis of abundance trends of 304 widely distributed marine species over the last century, across a range of taxonomic groups from phytoplankton to fish and marine mammals. Specifically, using a literature database, we investigate the extent that the direction and strength of long-term species abundance changes depend on the sampled location within the latitudinal range of species. Our results show that abundance increases have been most prominent where sampling has taken place at the poleward side of species ranges, and abundance declines have been most prominent where sampling has taken place at the equatorward side of species ranges. These data provide evidence of omnipresent large-scale changes in abundance of marine species consistent with warming over the last century and suggest that adaptation has not provided a buffer against the negative effects of warmer conditions at the equatorward extent of species ranges. On the basis of these results, we suggest that projected sea temperature increases of up to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels by 2050 [4] will continue to drive latitudinal abundance shifts in marine species, including those of importance for coastal livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid32218562, year = {2020}, author = {Jahanzad, E and Holtz, BA and Zuber, CA and Doll, D and Brewer, KM and Hogan, S and Gaudin, ACM}, title = {Orchard recycling improves climate change adaptation and mitigation potential of almond production systems.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {e0229588}, pmid = {32218562}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agricultural Irrigation ; Agriculture/*methods ; Biomass ; California ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Prunus dulcis/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Recycling ; Soil/chemistry ; Soil Microbiology ; Trees ; Water ; }, abstract = {There is an urgent need to develop climate smart agroecosystems capable of mitigating climate change and adapting to its effects. In California, high commodity prices and increased frequency of drought have encouraged orchard turnover, providing an opportunity to recycle tree biomass in situ prior to replanting an orchard. Whole orchard recycling (WOR) has potential as a carbon (C) negative cultural practice to build soil C storage, soil health, and orchard productivity. We tested the potential of this practice for long term C sequestration and hypothesized that associated co-benefits to soil health will enhance sustainability and resiliency of almond orchards to water-deficit conditions. We measured soil health metrics and productivity of an almond orchard following grinding and incorporation of woody biomass vs. burning of old orchard biomass 9 years after implementation. We also conducted a deficit irrigation trial with control and deficit irrigation (-20%) treatments to quantify shifts in tree water status and resilience. Biomass recycling led to higher yields and substantial improvement in soil functioning, including nutrient content, aggregation, porosity, and water retention. This practice also sequestered significantly higher levels of C in the topsoil (+5 t ha-1) compared to burning. We measured a 20% increase in irrigation water use efficiency and improved soil and tree water status under stress, suggesting that in situ biomass recycling can be considered as a climate smart practice in California irrigated almond systems.}, }
@article {pmid32218517, year = {2020}, author = {Pham-Duc, B and Sylvestre, F and Papa, F and Frappart, F and Bouchez, C and Crétaux, JF}, title = {The Lake Chad hydrology under current climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {5498}, pmid = {32218517}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Lake Chad, in the Sahelian zone of west-central Africa, provides food and water to ~50 million people and supports unique ecosystems and biodiversity. In the past decades, it became a symbol of current climate change, held up by its dramatic shrinkage in the 1980s. Despites a partial recovery in response to increased Sahelian precipitation in the 1990s, Lake Chad is still facing major threats and its contemporary variability under climate change remains highly uncertain. Here, using a new multi-satellite approach, we show that Lake Chad extent has remained stable during the last two decades, despite a slight decrease of its northern pool. Moreover, since the 2000s, groundwater, which contributes to ~70% of Lake Chad's annual water storage change, is increasing due to water supply provided by its two main tributaries. Our results indicate that in tandem with groundwater and tropical origin of water supply, over the last two decades, Lake Chad is not shrinking and recovers seasonally its surface water extent and volume. This study provides a robust regional understanding of current hydrology and changes in the Lake Chad region, giving a basis for developing future climate adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32217580, year = {2020}, author = {Macdonald, G}, title = {Our prescription for climate change: reduce and recycle inhalers!.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {70}, number = {693}, pages = {168}, pmid = {32217580}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {Bronchodilator Agents ; *Climate Change ; *Nebulizers and Vaporizers ; }, }
@article {pmid32215943, year = {2020}, author = {Nikendei, C and Cranz, A and Bugaj, TJ}, title = {Two slides to make you think: 2slides4future, an initiative for teachers and lecturers advocating climate change education and teacher-learner dialogue.}, journal = {Medical education}, volume = {54}, number = {5}, pages = {467}, doi = {10.1111/medu.14081}, pmid = {32215943}, issn = {1365-2923}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Educational Status ; *Faculty, Nursing ; Humans ; Interprofessional Relations ; }, }
@article {pmid32215695, year = {2020}, author = {Feist, A and Plummer, R and Baird, J and Mitchell, SJ}, title = {Examining Collaborative Processes for Climate Change Adaptation in New Brunswick, Canada.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {65}, number = {5}, pages = {665-677}, pmid = {32215695}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {not available//SSHRC/International ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; New Brunswick ; }, abstract = {Collaboration is a proposed strategy to address super wicked environmental problems, such as climate change. Yet, understanding how it works for climate change adaptation is nascent. This research aims to advance the understanding of this by a cross-case analysis of three cases in New Brunswick, Canada. We sought to illuminate the inner workings of multiparty collaboration in the context of community climate change adaptation; identify important qualities of the process and outcomes from it, and probe their relationships; and, explore how they come about in practice. A questionnaire was sent to individuals involved in cases and key informant interviews were conducted. Results reveal case-specific variations, but more importantly, common qualities and outcomes across the cases. They offer key insight into elements which may be important in collaborative settings. These are informative for influencing the uptake of collaborative strategies in climate change adaptation and offer the opportunity to better understand their functional effectiveness.}, }
@article {pmid32213418, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, B and Yu, K and Qin, Z and Liang, J and Wang, G and Huang, X and Wu, Q and Jiang, L}, title = {Dispersal, genetic variation, and symbiont interaction network of heat-tolerant endosymbiont Durusdinium trenchii: Insights into the adaptive potential of coral to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {723}, number = {}, pages = {138026}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138026}, pmid = {32213418}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; China ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming has degraded coral reef ecosystems worldwide. Some corals develop thermal tolerance by associating with heat-tolerant Symbiodiniaceae. Here, we studied the mechanisms surrounding the dispersal, genetic variation and symbionts interaction of heat-tolerant Durusdinium trenchii across 13° latitudes in the South China Sea (SCS), to explore the possible mechanisms underlying these changes. Our results showed that Durusdinium trenchii are widely distributed in the seawater from the SCS. Our analyses of microsatellite loci revealed that D. trenchii has a high genetic diversity in the SCS; STRUCTURE analysis indicated that D. trenchii can be divided into four populations within the SCS; There exist positive correlations between genetic variation and geographic isolation, average sea surface temperature (SST) and variations in SST. Network modelling inferences showed that D. trenchii is a key species in the Symbiodiniaceae communities in the tropical SCS and contributes the greatest number of co-exclusion relationships. These results indicated that D. trenchii can affect the rare Symbiodiniaceae community. The long lifespan and the monsoon-driven ocean currents have shaped the wide distribution of D. trenchii. But low SST limits the ability of D. trenchii to establish stable symbioses with coral in the subtropical habitats. Geographical isolation and SST have shaped significant genetic variation of D.trenchii around the SCS. Our data reveals the biogeography and genetic population characteristics of D. trenchii in the Indo-Pacific region, and suggests that heat-tolerance and high genetic diversity of D. trenchii aid the corals with their adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32212601, year = {2019}, author = {Doyle, P and Kelly, I and O’Neill, D}, title = {Older People: Canaries in the Coal-Mine for Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {Irish medical journal}, volume = {112}, number = {10}, pages = {1015}, pmid = {32212601}, issn = {0332-3102}, mesh = {*Aged ; *Climate Change ; Heat Stress Disorders/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid32211172, year = {2020}, author = {Zhao, Z and Guo, Y and Wei, H and Ran, Q and Liu, J and Zhang, Q and Gu, W}, title = {Potential distribution of Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang and its predicted responses to climate change based on a comprehensive habitat suitability model.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {3004-3016}, pmid = {32211172}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang is a rare and endangered traditional Chinese medicinal plant. In this research, we built a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model to analyze the potential suitable habitat distribution of this species in the present and future in China. First, using nine different algorithms, we built an ensemble model to explore the possible impacts of climate change on the habitat distribution of this species. Then, based on this model, we built a CHS model to further identify the distribution characteristics of N. incisum-suitable habitats in three time periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s) while considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. The results indicated that the current suitable habitat for N. incisum covers approximately 83.76 × 10[3] km[2], and these locations were concentrated in the Tibet Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, and Sichuan Province. In the future, the areas of suitable habitat for N. incisum would significantly decrease and would be 69.53 × 10[3] km[2] and 60.21 × 10[3] km[2] in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. However, the area of marginally suitable habitat would remain relatively stable. This study provides a more reliable and comprehensive method for modelling the current and future distributions of N. incisum, and it provides valuable insights for highlighting priority areas for medicinal plant conservation and resource utilization.}, }
@article {pmid32211145, year = {2020}, author = {Denney, DA and Jameel, MI and Bemmels, JB and Rochford, ME and Anderson, JT}, title = {Small spaces, big impacts: contributions of micro-environmental variation to population persistence under climate change.}, journal = {AoB PLANTS}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {plaa005}, pmid = {32211145}, issn = {2041-2851}, abstract = {Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change.}, }
@article {pmid32211059, year = {2020}, author = {Jia, KH and Zhao, W and Maier, PA and Hu, XG and Jin, Y and Zhou, SS and Jiao, SQ and El-Kassaby, YA and Wang, T and Wang, XR and Mao, JF}, title = {Landscape genomics predicts climate change-related genetic offset for the widespread Platycladus orientalis (Cupressaceae).}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {665-676}, pmid = {32211059}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Understanding and quantifying populations' adaptive genetic variation and their response to climate change are critical to reforestation's seed source selection, forest management decisions, and gene conservation. Landscape genomics combined with geographic and environmental information provide an opportunity to interrogate forest populations' genome-wide variation for understanding the extent to which evolutionary forces shape past and contemporary populations' genetic structure, and identify those populations that may be most at risk under future climate change. Here, we used genotyping by sequencing to generate over 11,000 high-quality variants from Platycladus orientalis range-wide collection to evaluate its diversity and to predict genetic offset under future climate scenarios. Platycladus orientalis is a widespread conifer in China with significant ecological, timber, and medicinal values. We found population structure and evidences of isolation by environment, indicative of adaptation to local conditions. Gradient forest modeling identified temperature-related variables as the most important environmental factors influencing genetic variation and predicted areas with higher risk under future climate change. This study provides an important reference for forest resource management and conservation for P. orientalis.}, }
@article {pmid32210846, year = {2020}, author = {Cianconi, P and Betrò, S and Janiri, L}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health: A Systematic Descriptive Review.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychiatry}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {74}, pmid = {32210846}, issn = {1664-0640}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is one of the great challenges of our time. The consequences of climate change on exposed biological subjects, as well as on vulnerable societies, are a concern for the entire scientific community. Rising temperatures, heat waves, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts, fires, loss of forest, and glaciers, along with disappearance of rivers and desertification, can directly and indirectly cause human pathologies that are physical and mental. However, there is a clear lack in psychiatric studies on mental disorders linked to climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Literature available on PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library until end of June 2019 were reviewed. The total number of articles and association reports was 445. From these, 163 were selected. We looked for the association between classical psychiatric disorders such as anxiety schizophrenia, mood disorder and depression, suicide, aggressive behaviors, despair for the loss of usual landscape, and phenomena related to climate change and extreme weather. Review of literature was then divided into specific areas: the course of change in mental health, temperature, water, air pollution, drought, as well as the exposure of certain groups and critical psychological adaptations.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change has an impact on a large part of the population, in different geographical areas and with different types of threats to public health. However, the delay in studies on climate change and mental health consequences is an important aspect. Lack of literature is perhaps due to the complexity and novelty of this issue. It has been shown that climate change acts on mental health with different timing. The phenomenology of the effects of climate change differs greatly-some mental disorders are common and others more specific in relation to atypical climatic conditions. Moreover, climate change also affects different population groups who are directly exposed and more vulnerable in their geographical conditions, as well as a lack of access to resources, information, and protection. Perhaps it is also worth underlining that in some papers the connection between climatic events and mental disorders was described through the introduction of new terms, coined only recently: ecoanxiety, ecoguilt, ecopsychology, ecological grief, solastalgia, biospheric concern, etc.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The effects of climate change can be direct or indirect, short-term or long-term. Acute events can act through mechanisms similar to that of traumatic stress, leading to well-understood psychopathological patterns. In addition, the consequences of exposure to extreme or prolonged weather-related events can also be delayed, encompassing disorders such as posttraumatic stress, or even transmitted to later generations.}, }
@article {pmid32210120, year = {2020}, author = {Magaña Ugarte, R and Escudero, A and Mata, DS and Gavilán, RG}, title = {Changes in Foliar Functional Traits of S. pyrenaicus subsp. carpetanus under the Ongoing Climate Change: A Retrospective Survey.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {32210120}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {REMEDINAL-TE CM, P2018/EMT-4338//Comunidad de Madrid/ ; }, abstract = {The sensitivity of stomatal behavior and patterning (i.e., distribution, density, size) to environmental stimuli, renders them crucial for defining the physiological performance of leaves. Thus, assessing long-term modifications in stomatal traits in conserved specimens arises as a valuable eco-physiological approach to predict how the rising trend of warmer, drier summers could affect plant fitness; particularly in mountain areas already experiencing climate aggravation and lacking the related monitoring schemes like Mediterranean high-mountains. Variations in foliar and stomatal traits were studied in conserved specimens of Senecio pyrenaicus subsp. carpetanus from Sierra de Guadarrama over the past 71 years. Our findings revealed decreasing trends in leaf width, stomatal size, and increasing tendency in stomatal density, all correlated with the recent 30-year climate exacerbation in these mountains. This evidenced a positive selection favoring traits that allow safeguarding plant performance under drier, hotter weather conditions. The significant relation between stomatal traits and climatic variables upholds the role of stomatal patterning in sensing environmental cues in this species, feasibly optimizing physiological responses involved in the growth-water loss trade-off. The transition to smaller, densely packed stomata observed in recent decades could indicate local-adaptive plasticity in this species, enhancing stomatal response, as coarser environmental conditions take place in Sierra de Guadarrama.}, }
@article {pmid32209235, year = {2020}, author = {Weiskopf, SR and Rubenstein, MA and Crozier, LG and Gaichas, S and Griffis, R and Halofsky, JE and Hyde, KJW and Morelli, TL and Morisette, JT and Muñoz, RC and Pershing, AJ and Peterson, DL and Poudel, R and Staudinger, MD and Sutton-Grier, AE and Thompson, L and Vose, J and Weltzin, JF and Whyte, KP}, title = {Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {733}, number = {}, pages = {137782}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137782}, pmid = {32209235}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Natural Resources ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.}, }
@article {pmid32208258, year = {2020}, author = {Guevara-Ochoa, C and Medina-Sierra, A and Vives, L}, title = {Spatio-temporal effect of climate change on water balance and interactions between groundwater and surface water in plains.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {722}, number = {}, pages = {137886}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137886}, pmid = {32208258}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The analysis of the impact of climate change on water resources in plains requires integral simulation tools that quantify topographic complexity and the strong interaction of groundwater and surface water components (GW-SW). The objective of this study is to implement a coupled hydrological-hydrogeological model under climate change scenarios in order to quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of water balance and GW-SW interactions for the upper creek basin of Del Azul, which is located in the center of the province of Buenos Aires. The simulation was carried out for a baseline scenario calibrated and validated for the period 2003-2015 and contrasted with two scenarios of the regional climate model CCSM4, RCP (4.5 and 8.5) simulated for the period 2020-2050. First, the annual and monthly anomalies of precipitation, temperature, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, recharge, flow, as well as the discharge, head level and reserves of groundwater are studied. Then the spatio-temporal anomalies of the GW-SW interaction were analyzed and finally wet and dry periods by means of the standardized precipitation index and the annual water balance were studied. Simulation results show that climate change will significantly alter the spatio-temporal patterns of the GW-SW interaction as well as the water balance. These showed monthly, seasonal and annual variations. They show an increase in most of the components of the water balance towards the middle of the 21st century, except soil moisture. Regarding GW-SW interactions, the average annual discharge of the aquifer to the stream is expected to increase by 5% with RCP 4.5 while it will increase 24% with RCP 8.5. The recharge from the stream to the aquifer is expected to increase by 12% with RCP 4.5 while a decrease by 5% with RCP 8.5. Concerning the SPI related to the water balance for the period 2020-2050, alternations of both the time and the length of dry and wet periods are expected for the two scenarios, with RCP 4.5 low frequency of wet episodes, but with a greater severity and permanence in time in contrast to RCP 8.5 that presents less frequency in dry periods, but with high permanence and severity. Climate change could alter groundwater mainly through changes in the recharge, leading to modify groundwater levels and this will cause GW-SW flow to be reversed in some sectors of the stream by increasing or decreasing groundwater discharge into the stream.}, }
@article {pmid32206835, year = {2020}, author = {Akerlof, KL and Boules, C and Ban Rohring, E and Rohring, B and Kappalman, S}, title = {Governmental Communication of Climate Change Risk and Efficacy: Moving Audiences Toward "Danger Control".}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {65}, number = {5}, pages = {678-688}, pmid = {32206835}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communication ; Government ; }, abstract = {Public communication represents a vital civic function for governments developing climate policies, particularly with vulnerable communities under environmental justice mandates. In this study, three videos developed to support a state's climate change public engagement are used to evaluate how governmental communication using the frames of health, science, and local effects influences two theoretically important constructs, risk perception and collective efficacy. Vulnerable audiences differentiated by stress, perceived lack of control, and poor health demonstrate significant gains in collective efficacy relative to risk-"danger control" -after the intervention. But we find no differences between the three frames in their effects on perceptions of climate change risk and collective efficacy.}, }
@article {pmid32206368, year = {2020}, author = {Kim, D and Lee, J}, title = {Spatial Changes in Work Capacity for Occupations Vulnerable to Heat Stress: Potential Regional Impacts From Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Safety and health at work}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1-9}, pmid = {32206368}, issn = {2093-7911}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: As the impact of climate change intensifies, exposure to heat stress will grow, leading to a loss of work capacity for vulnerable occupations and affecting individual labor decisions. This study estimates the future work capacity under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario and discusses its regional impacts on the occupational structure in the Republic of Korea.<br><br>METHODS: The data utilized for this study constitute the local wet bulb globe temperature from the Korea Meteorological Administration and information from the Korean Working Condition Survey from the Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute of Korea. Using these data, we classify the occupations vulnerable to heat stress and estimate future changes in work capacity at the local scale, considering the occupational structure. We then identify the spatial cluster of diminishing work capacity using exploratory spatial data analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Our findings indicate that 52 occupations are at risk of heat stress, including machine operators and elementary laborers working in the construction, welding, metal, and mining industries. Moreover, spatial clusters with diminished work capacity appear in southwest Korea.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Although previous studies investigated the work capacity associated with heat stress in terms of climatic impact, this study quantifies the local impacts due to the global risk of climate change. The results suggest the need for mainstreaming an adaptation policy related to work capacity in regional development strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32205849, year = {2020}, author = {P J, V and Ravichandran, M and Subeesh, MP and Chatterjee, S and M, N}, title = {Author Correction: Global warming hiatus contributed weakening of the Mascarene High in the Southern Indian Ocean.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {5670}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-62006-x}, pmid = {32205849}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32205773, year = {2020}, author = {Dumont, C and Haase, E and Dolber, T and Lewis, J and Coverdale, J}, title = {Climate Change and Risk of Completed Suicide.}, journal = {The Journal of nervous and mental disease}, volume = {208}, number = {7}, pages = {559-565}, doi = {10.1097/NMD.0000000000001162}, pmid = {32205773}, issn = {1539-736X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; Mental Health ; Suicide, Completed/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly recognized as having multiple adverse mental health effects, many of which are just beginning to be understood. The elevated rates of suicides observed in some communities affected by climate change and rising rates of suicide in the United States as climate change intensifies have suggested the two may be associated. We searched PubMed and PsycInfo using the terms climate change and suicide, and provide here a review of the current literature on climate change and suicide that explores possible associations and methodological issues and challenges in this research.}, }
@article {pmid32204576, year = {2020}, author = {Francisco Ribeiro, P and Camargo Rodriguez, AV}, title = {Emerging Advanced Technologies to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change in Africa.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {32204576}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Agriculture remains critical to Africa's socioeconomic development, employing 65% of the work force and contributing 32% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Low productivity, which characterises food production in many Africa countries, remains a major concern. Compounded by the effects of climate change and lack of technical expertise, recent reports suggest that the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food systems in African countries may have further-reaching consequences than previously anticipated. Thus, it has become imperative that African scientists and farmers adopt new technologies which facilitate their research and provide smart agricultural solutions to mitigating current and future climate change-related challenges. Advanced technologies have been developed across the globe to facilitate adaptation to climate change in the agriculture sector. Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-CRISPR-associated protein 9 (Cas9), synthetic biology, and genomic selection, among others, constitute examples of some of these technologies. In this work, emerging advanced technologies with the potential to effectively mitigate climate change in Africa are reviewed. The authors show how these technologies can be utilised to enhance knowledge discovery for increased production in a climate change-impacted environment. We conclude that the application of these technologies could empower African scientists to explore agricultural strategies more resilient to the effects of climate change. Additionally, we conclude that support for African scientists from the international community in various forms is necessary to help Africans avoid the full undesirable effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32203354, year = {2020}, author = {O'Meara, S}, title = {Deflecting the heat of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00774-2}, pmid = {32203354}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32203328, year = {2019}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {New York City climate-change plan proposes adding land to Manhattan.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00862-y}, pmid = {32203328}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32202817, year = {2021}, author = {Nielsen, KS and Clayton, S and Stern, PC and Dietz, T and Capstick, S and Whitmarsh, L}, title = {How psychology can help limit climate change.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {76}, number = {1}, pages = {130-144}, doi = {10.1037/amp0000624}, pmid = {32202817}, issn = {1935-990X}, mesh = {Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Psychology ; }, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has encouraged psychologists to become part of the integrated scientific effort to support the achievement of climate change targets such as keeping within 1.5°C or 2°C of global warming. To date, the typical psychological approach has been to demonstrate that specific concepts and theories can predict behaviors that contribute to or mitigate climate change. Psychologists need to go further and, in particular, show that integrating psychological concepts into feasible interventions can reduce greenhouse gas emissions far more than would be achieved without such integration. While critiquing some aspects of current approaches, we describe psychological research that is pointing the way by distinguishing different types of behavior, acknowledging sociocultural context, and collaborating with other disciplines. Engaging this challenge offers psychologists new opportunities for promoting mitigation, advancing psychological understanding, and developing better interdisciplinary interactions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).}, }
@article {pmid32200732, year = {2020}, author = {Gostimirovic, M and Novakovic, R and Rajkovic, J and Djokic, V and Terzic, D and Putnik, S and Gojkovic-Bukarica, L}, title = {The influence of climate change on human cardiovascular function.}, journal = {Archives of environmental &amp; occupational health}, volume = {75}, number = {7}, pages = {406-414}, doi = {10.1080/19338244.2020.1742079}, pmid = {32200732}, issn = {2154-4700}, mesh = {Cardiovascular System/*physiopathology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change is considered to have great impact on human health. The heat waves have been associated with excess morbidity and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) across various populations and geographic locations. Important role in the heat-induced cardiovascular damage has endothelial dysfunction. It has been noticed that hot weather can impair tone and structure of the blood vessels via interfering with variety of biological factors such as nitric oxide synthesize, cytokine production and systemic inflammation. Also, due to dehydration and increased blood viscosity, by promoting thrombogenesis, heat has important impact on patients with atherosclerosis. During chronic exposure to the cold or hot weather cardiovascular function can be decreased, leading to a higher risk of developing heart attack, malignant cardiac arrhythmias, thromboembolic diseases and heat-induced sepsis like shock. It has been shown that changes in the ambient temperature through increasing blood pressure, blood viscosity, and heart rate, contribute to the cardiovascular mortality. The majority of deaths due to heat waves especially affect individuals with preexisting chronic CVD. This population can experience a decline in the health status, since extreme ambient temperature affects pharmacokinetic parameters of many cardiovascular drugs. Increased mortality from ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke can also be related to extreme temperature variations. On a cellular level, higher ambient temperature can limit storage of ATP and O2 increase amount of free radicals and toxic substances and induce neuronal apoptotic signal transduction, which all can lead to a stroke. Preserving cardiovascular function in context of extreme climate changing tends to be particularly challenging.}, }
@article {pmid32200301, year = {2020}, author = {Sun, Y and Ding, J and Siemann, E and Keller, SR}, title = {Biocontrol of invasive weeds under climate change: progress, challenges and management implications.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {38}, number = {}, pages = {72-78}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2020.02.003}, pmid = {32200301}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; Pest Control, Biological/*methods ; *Plant Weeds ; Weed Control/*methods ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and impact of plant invasions, creating a need for new control strategies as part of mitigation planning. The complex interactions between invasive plants and biocontrol agents have created distinct policy and management challenges, including the effectiveness and risk assessment of biocontrol under different climate change scenarios. In this brief review, we synthesize recent studies describing the potential ecological and evolutionary outcomes for biocontrol agents/candidates for plant invaders under climate change. We also discuss potential methodologies that can be used as a framework for predicting ecological and evolutionary responses of plant-natural enemy interactions under climate change, and for refining our understanding of the efficacy and risk of using biocontrol on invasive plants.}, }
@article {pmid32199384, year = {2020}, author = {Khalsa, SDS and Smart, DR and Muhammad, S and Armstrong, CM and Sanden, BL and Houlton, BZ and Brown, PH}, title = {Intensive fertilizer use increases orchard N cycling and lowers net global warming potential.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {722}, number = {}, pages = {137889}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137889}, pmid = {32199384}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Nitrogen (N) fertilizer use has simultaneously increased global food production and N losses, resulting in degradation of water quality and climate pollution. A better understanding of N application rates and crop and environmental response is needed to optimize management of agroecosystems. Here we show an orchard agroecosystem with high N use efficiency promoted substantial gains in carbon (C) storage, thereby lowering net global warming potential (GWP). We conducted a 5-year whole-system analysis comparing reduced (224 kg N ha[-1] yr[-1]) and intensive (309 kg N ha[-1] yr[-1]) fertilizer N rates in a California almond orchard. The intensive rate increased net primary productivity (Mg C ha[-1]) and significantly increased N productivity (kg N ha[-1]) and net N mineralization (mg N kg[-1] soil d[-1]). Use of [15]N tracers demonstrated short and long-term mechanisms of soil N retention. These low organic matter soils (0.3-0.5%) rapidly immobilized fertilizer nitrate within 36 h of N application and [15]N in tree biomass recycled back into soil organic matter over five years. Both fertilizer rates resulted in high crop and total N recovery efficiencies of 90% and 98% for the reduced rate, and 72% and 80% for the intensive rate. However, there was no difference in the proportion of N losses to N inputs due to a significant gain in soil total N (TN) in the intensive rate. Higher soil TN significantly increased net N mineralization and a larger gain in soil organic carbon (SOC) from the intensive rate offset nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, leading to significantly lower net GWP of -1.64 Mg CO2-eq ha[-1] yr[-1] compared to -1.22 Mg CO2-eq ha[-1] yr[-1] for the reduced rate. Our study demonstrates increased N cycling and climate mitigation from intensive fertilizer N use in this orchard agroecosystem, implying a fundamentally different result than seen in conventional annual cropping systems.}, }
@article {pmid32198930, year = {2020}, author = {Cecchi, L and D'Amato, G and Annesi-Maesano, I}, title = {Climate change and outdoor aeroallergens related to allergy and asthma: Taking the exposome into account.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {75}, number = {9}, pages = {2361-2363}, doi = {10.1111/all.14286}, pmid = {32198930}, issn = {1398-9995}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Allergens ; *Asthma/epidemiology/etiology ; Climate Change ; *Exposome ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid32197713, year = {2020}, author = {Kuefner, W and Hofmann, AM and Geist, J and Raeder, U}, title = {Corrigendum to "Evaluating climate change impacts on mountain lakes by applying the new silicification value to paleolimnological samples"[Sci. Total Environ. 715 (2020), 136913].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {720}, number = {}, pages = {137901}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137901}, pmid = {32197713}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid32197010, year = {2020}, author = {Martin, G and Reilly, KC and Gilliland, JA}, title = {Impact of awareness and concerns of climate change on children's mental health: a scoping review protocol.}, journal = {JBI evidence synthesis}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {516-522}, doi = {10.11124/JBISRIR-D-19-00253}, pmid = {32197010}, issn = {2689-8381}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Adolescent Health ; Child ; *Child Health ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Review Literature as Topic ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this scoping review is to identify and describe the existing literature on the impact of the overarching awareness and concerns of climate change on children's mental health and well-being.<br><br>INTRODUCTION: Children are widely acknowledged as being disproportionately at risk to the effects of climate change, yet research overlooks the impact that climate change has on their mental health. Children's overarching awareness of climate change, and its global effects, may influence their mental health and well-being.<br><br>INCLUSION CRITERIA: This review will include all research that addresses school-aged children's (aged 3-19) mental-health issues stemming from an awareness of climate change. It will not include research that examines direct impacts of climate change on children's mental health, such as trauma from a specific climate-related event.<br><br>METHODS: Searches will be conducted across eight research databases (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CINAHL, Embase, GreenFILE, PubMed, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus) and three unpublished/gray literature databases (ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, GreyLit.org, and OpenGrey). Data will be extracted for author(s), year of publication, country of origin, purpose, population, methodology, concepts of interest, outcomes, and key findings relating to the scoping review objectives. Findings will be presented as a narrative summary.}, }
@article {pmid32196868, year = {2020}, author = {Filazzola, A and Matter, SF and Roland, J}, title = {Inclusion of trophic interactions increases the vulnerability of an alpine butterfly species to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {5}, pages = {2867-2877}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15068}, pmid = {32196868}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/International ; //Killam Trusts/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Butterflies ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have significant and complex impacts on ecological communities. In addition to direct effects of climate on species, there can also be indirect effects through an intermediary species, such as in host-plant interactions. Indirect effects are expected to be more pronounced in alpine environments because these ecosystems are sensitive to temperature changes and there are limited areas for migration of both species (i.e. closed systems), and because of simpler trophic interactions. We tested the hypothesis that climate change will reduce the range of an alpine butterfly (Parnassius smintheus) because of indirect effects through its host plant (Sedum sp.). To test for direct and indirect effects, we used the simulations of climate change to assess the distribution of P. smintheus with and without Sedum sp. We also compared the projected ranges of P. smintheus to four other butterfly species that are found in the alpine, but that are generalists feeding on many plant genera. We found that P. smintheus gained distributional area in climate-only models, but these gains were significantly reduced with the inclusion of Sedum sp. and in dry-climate scenarios which resulted in a reduction in net area. When compared to the more generalist butterfly species, P. smintheus exhibited the largest loss in suitable habitat. Our findings support the importance of including indirect effects in modelling species distributions in response to climate change. We highlight the potentially large and still neglected impacts climate change can have on the trophic structure of communities, which can lead to significant losses of biodiversity. In the future, communities will continue to favour species that are generalists as climate change induces asynchronies in the migration of species.}, }
@article {pmid32195054, year = {2020}, author = {Li, M and He, J and Zhao, Z and Lyu, R and Yao, M and Cheng, J and Xie, L}, title = {Predictive modelling of the distribution of Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. under climate change reveals a range expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {e8729}, pmid = {32195054}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The knowledge of distributional dynamics of living organisms is a prerequisite for protecting biodiversity and for the sustainable use of biotic resources. Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. is a small group of shrubby, yellow-flowered species distributed mainly in arid and semi-arid areas of China. Plants in this section are both horticulturally and ecologically important.<br><br>METHODS: Using past, present, and future environmental variables and data with Maximum Entropy (Maxent) modeling, we evaluated the importance of the environmental variables on the section's estimated distributions, thus simulating its distributional dynamics over time. The contractions and expansions of suitable habitat between the past and future scenarios and the present were then compared.<br><br>RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The models revealed that the areas with high and moderate suitability currently encompass about 725,110 km[2]. The distribution centroid location varies between points in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia during the different scenarios. Elevation, Mean UV-B of Lowest Month, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter were major factors determining the section's distribution. Our modeling indicated that Clematis sect. Fruticella underwent a significant range contraction during the last interglacial period, and then expanded during the last glacial maximum (LGM) to amounts like those of the present. Cold, dry, and relatively stable climate, as well as steppe or desert steppe environments may have facilitated range expansion of this cold-adapted, drought-resistant plant taxon during the LGM. Predicted future scenarios show little change in the amounts of suitable habitat for Clematis sect. Fruticella. This study aids understanding of the distributional dynamics of Clematis sect. Fruticella, and the results will help the conservation and sustainable use of these important woody plants in Chinese arid and semiarid areas.}, }
@article {pmid32193806, year = {2020}, author = {Fan, JL and Zeng, B and Hu, JW and Zhang, X and Wang, H}, title = {The impact of climate change on residential energy consumption in urban and rural divided southern and northern China.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {969-985}, pmid = {32193806}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {CBA2018-02MY-Fan//Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research/ ; 71874193//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71503249//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71203008//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Coal ; *Energy-Generating Resources/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Heating ; Humans ; Income ; *Models, Econometric ; Rural Population/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Urban Population/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {In different regions of China, climate change has various influences on urban and rural residential energy consumption, which also shows that the research on it could be profoundly vital in order to formulate the energy-saving and emission-reducing policies. Based the provincial panel data from 2000-2016, the extended stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (extended STIRPAT) model was utilized to evaluate the impacts of climate change on residential energy consumption in different Chinese regions. The results show that: (1) during 2000 to 2016, the urban and rural energy consumption enlarged by 878.83 billion kWh and 488.98 billion kWh, respectively. In addition, electricity and oil have occupied more proportion in urban energy consumption, while coal still plays an important role in rural residential energy consumption (28.2%). (2) Heating degree day (HDD) and cooling degree day (CDD) have positive influences on urban and rural residential energy consumption in different areas, and the elastic coefficients are 0.028-0.371 and 0.066-0.158, respectively. (3) The elastic coefficient of CDD in urban areas of southern regions (0.158) is much larger than that in northern regions (0.068).}, }
@article {pmid32184791, year = {2020}, author = {Jiménez, S and Fattahi, M and Bedis, K and Nasrolahpour-Moghadam, S and Irigoyen, JJ and Gogorcena, Y}, title = {Interactional Effects of Climate Change Factors on the Water Status, Photosynthetic Rate, and Metabolic Regulation in Peach.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {43}, pmid = {32184791}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Environmental stress factors caused by climate change affect plant growth and crop production, and pose a growing threat to sustainable agriculture, especially for tree crops. In this context, we sought to investigate the responses to climate change of two Prunus rootstocks (GF677 and Adesoto) budded with Catherina peach cultivar. Plants were grown in 15 L pots in temperature gradient greenhouses for an 18 days acclimation period after which six treatments were applied: [CO2 levels (400 versus 700 µmol mol[-1]), temperature (ambient versus ambient + 4°C), and water availability (well irrigated versus drought)]. After 23 days, the effects of stress were evaluated as changes in physiological and biochemical traits, including expression of relevant genes. Stem water potential decreased under drought stress in plants grafted on GF677 and Adesoto rootstocks; however, elevated CO2 and temperature affected plant water content differently in both combinations. The photosynthetic rate of plants grafted on GF677 increased under high CO2, but decreased under high temperature and drought conditions. The photosynthetic rates of plants grafted onto Adesoto were only affected by drought treatment. Furthermore, in GF677-Catherina plants, elevated CO2 alleviated the effect of drought, whereas in those grafted onto Adesoto, the same condition produced acclimation in the rate. Stomatal conductance decreased under high CO2 and drought stress in both grafted rootstocks, and the combination of these conditions improved water-use efficiency. Changes in the sugar content in scion leaves and roots were significantly different under the stress conditions in both combinations. Meanwhile, the expression of most of the assessed genes was significantly affected by treatment. Regarding genotypes, GF677 rootstock showed more changes at the molecular and transcriptomic level than did Adesoto rootstock. A coordinated shift was found between the physiological status and the transcriptomic responses. This study revealed adaptive responses to climate change at the physiological, metabolic, and transcriptomic levels in two Prunus rootstocks budded with 'Catherina'. Overall, these results demonstrate the resilient capacity and plasticity of these contrasting genotypes, which can be further used to combat ongoing climate changes and support sustainable peach production.}, }
@article {pmid32184767, year = {2020}, author = {Hereme, R and Morales-Navarro, S and Ballesteros, G and Barrera, A and Ramos, P and Gundel, PE and Molina-Montenegro, MA}, title = {Fungal Endophytes Exert Positive Effects on Colobanthus quitensis Under Water Stress but Neutral Under a Projected Climate Change Scenario in Antarctica.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {264}, pmid = {32184767}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Functional symbiosis is considered one of the successful mechanisms by which plants that inhabit extreme environment improve their ability to tolerate different types of stress. One of the most conspicuous type of symbiosis is the endophyticism. This interaction has been noted to play a role in the adaptation of the native vascular plant Colobanthus quitensis to the stressful environments of Antarctica, characterized by low temperatures and extreme aridity. Projections of climate change for this ecosystem indicate that abiotic conditions will be less limiting due to an increase in temperature and water availability in the soil. Due to this decrease in stress induced by the climate change, it has been suggested that the positive role of fungal endophytes on performance of C. quitensis plants would decrease. In this study, we evaluated the role of endophytic fungi on osmoprotective molecules (sugar production, proline, oxidative stress) and gene expression (CqNCED1, CqABCG25, and CqRD22) as well as physiological traits (stomatal opening, net photosynthesis, and stomatal conductance) in individuals of C. quitensis. Individual plants of C. quitensis with (E+) and without (E-) endophytic fungi were exposed to simulated conditions of increased water availability (W+), having the current limiting water condition (W-) in Antarctica as control. The results reveal an endophyte-mediated lower oxidative stress, higher production of sugars and proline in plants. In addition, E+ plants showed differential expressions in genes related with drought stress response, which was more evident in W- than in W+. These parameters corresponded with increased physiological mechanisms such as higher net photosynthesis, stomatal opening and conductance under presence of endophytes (E+) as well as the projected water condition (W+) for Antarctica. These results suggest that the presence of fungal endophytes plays a positive role in favoring tolerance to drought in C. quitensis. However, this positive role would be diminished if the stress factor is relaxed, suggesting that the role of endophytes could be less important under a future scenario of climate change in Antarctica with higher soil water availability.}, }
@article {pmid32184532, year = {2020}, author = {Harkness, C and Semenov, MA and Areal, F and Senapati, N and Trnka, M and Balek, J and Bishop, J}, title = {Adverse weather conditions for UK wheat production under climate change.}, journal = {Agricultural and forest meteorology}, volume = {282-283}, number = {}, pages = {107862}, pmid = {32184532}, issn = {0168-1923}, abstract = {Winter wheat is an important crop in the UK, suited to the typical weather conditions in the current climate. In a changing climate the increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events, which are often localised, are considered a major threat to wheat production. In the present study we assessed a range of adverse weather conditions, which can significantly affect yield, under current and future climates based on adverse weather indices. We analysed changes in the frequency, magnitude and spatial patterns of 10 adverse weather indices, at 25 sites across the UK, using climate scenarios from the CMIP5 ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future UK climate is expected to remain favourable for wheat production, with most adverse weather indicators reducing in magnitude by the mid-21st century. Hotter and drier summers would improve sowing and harvesting conditions and reduce the risk of lodging. The probability of late frosts and heat stress during reproductive and grain filling periods would likely remain small in 2050. Wetter winter and spring could cause issues with waterlogging. The severity of drought stress during reproduction would generally be lower in 2050, however localised differences suggest it is important to examine drought at a small spatial scale. Prolonged water stress does not increase considerably in the UK, as may be expected in other parts of Europe. Climate projections based on the CMIP5 ensemble reveal considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of adverse weather conditions including waterlogging, drought and water stress. The variation in adverse weather conditions due to GCMs was generally greater than between emissions scenarios. Accordingly, CMIP5 ensembles should be used in the assessment of adverse weather conditions for crop production to indicate the full range of possible impacts, which a limited number of GCMs may not provide.}, }
@article {pmid32183303, year = {2020}, author = {Gartin, M and Larson, KL and Brewis, A and Stotts, R and Wutich, A and White, D and du Bray, M}, title = {Climate Change as an Involuntary Exposure: A Comparative Risk Perception Study from Six Countries across the Global Development Gradient.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {32183303}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Australia ; China ; *Climate Change ; Fiji ; Humans ; Mexico ; New Zealand ; *Risk Assessment ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been referred to as an involuntary exposure, meaning people do not voluntarily put themselves at risk for climate-related ill health or reduced standard of living. The purpose of this study is to examine people's risk perceptions and related beliefs regarding (1) the likelihood of different risks occurring at different times and places and (2) collective (government) responsibility and personal efficacy in dealing with climate change, as well as (3) explore the ways in which climate risk may be amplified when posed against individual health and well-being. Previous research on this topic has largely focused on one community or one nation state, and so a unique characteristic of this study is the comparison between six different city (country) sites by their development and national wealth. Here, we collected 401 surveys from Phoenix (USA), Brisbane (Australia), Wellington (New Zealand), Shanghai (China), Viti Levu (Fiji), and Mexico City (Mexico). Results suggest that the hyperopia effect characterized the sample from each study site but was more pronounced in developed sites, suggesting that the more developed sites employ a broader perspective when approaching ways to mitigate their risk against climate-related health and well-being impacts.}, }
@article {pmid32179849, year = {2020}, author = {Kusunoki, S and Ose, T and Hosaka, M}, title = {Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4802}, pmid = {32179849}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The future time of emergence when precipitation changes due to anthropogenic influences begins to continuously exceed the previous maximum value is defined as the 'tipping year' Historical experiments and future experiments simulated by state-of-the-art climate models were utilized. A total of 510,000 time series from year 1856 to 2095 were generated by sampling the natural internal variability in precipitation. The time evolutions of internal variability in the whole time period were estimated from the combination of past and future experiments with preindustrial control experiments. A large ensemble size enabled an estimation of the probability density function of the tipping year at each grid point, providing precise information on the uncertainty of the projection. The tipping year of average precipitation emerges earlier in high latitudes than in lower latitudes. In some regions in lower latitudes and mid-latitudes, the tipping year of intense precipitation emerges faster than that of average precipitation. The tipping years of average and intense precipitation are earlier for higher anthropogenic forcing scenarios than for lower scenarios. The global average of the tipping year for intense precipitation might be attributed to the enhancement of the thermodynamic effect (moisture) rather than the dynamic effect (vertical motion).}, }
@article {pmid32179351, year = {2020}, author = {Dai, C and Qin, XS and Lu, WT and Huang, Y}, title = {Assessing adaptation measures on agricultural water productivity under climate change: A case study of Huai River Basin, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {721}, number = {}, pages = {137777}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137777}, pmid = {32179351}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study explored an integrated framework to assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures on the water productivity (WP) of the agricultural water management (AWM) system in the Huai river basin of China considering climate change impact. The adaptation measures include optimization of cropping pattern (OCP) and upgradation of irrigation techniques (UIT). The delta change method was used to downscale the climate variables from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of general circulation models (GCMs) during 2021-2050, the water footprint theory was used to estimate the spatial distribution of blue water to calculate the WP, and the nonlinear optimization model was used to seek optimal cropping pattern aiming at maximizing the system's WP. The changes in WP due to climate change and adaptation measures (e.g. combinations of OCP and UIT) were compared. Results indicated that WP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would be 4.56% and 6.51% lower than those under the benchmark scenario, respectively. The mitigation rates to the negative impact of climate change on WP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would be (1) 3.05% and 3.37% for the combination of spay irrigation technique and OCP, and (2) 4.34% and 4.59% for the combination of drip irrigation technique and OCP, respectively. It was revealed that the combination of drip irrigation and cropping pattern optimization could largely offset the adverse effect from climate change on WP under RCP4.5. Under such a scenario, the total plant areas of wheat and maize would reduce over the basin and so would the net export of crops in the basin; this would lead to a decrease in the crop trade benefit of 7.07 × 10[9] $ and a relief of 7.50 × 10[9] m[3] of blue water loss. This study results could offer strategic decision support for long-term sustainable AWM of Huai river basin in a changing environment.}, }
@article {pmid32174933, year = {2020}, author = {Villette, J and Cuéllar, T and Verdeil, JL and Delrot, S and Gaillard, I}, title = {Grapevine Potassium Nutrition and Fruit Quality in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {123}, pmid = {32174933}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Potassium (K[+]) nutrition is of relevant interest for winegrowers because it influences grapevine growth, berry composition, as well as must and wine quality. Indeed, wine quality strongly depends on berry composition at harvest. However, K[+] content of grape berries increased steadily over the last decades, in part due to climate change. Currently, the properties and qualities of many fruits are also impacted by environment. In grapevine, this disturbs berry properties resulting in unbalanced wines with poor organoleptic quality and low acidity. This requires a better understanding of the molecular basis of K[+] accumulation and its control along grape berry development. This mini-review summarizes our current knowledge on K[+] nutrition in relation with fruit quality in the context of a changing environment.}, }
@article {pmid32172340, year = {2020}, author = {Singh, RK and Sinha, VSP and Joshi, PK and Kumar, M}, title = {Modelling Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) in response to climate change scenarios for the SAARC nations.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {4}, pages = {236}, pmid = {32172340}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Afghanistan ; Agriculture ; Bangladesh ; Bhutan ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Forestry ; Humans ; India ; Indian Ocean Islands ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nepal ; Pakistan ; Sri Lanka ; }, abstract = {Agriculture and forestry are the two major land use classes providing sustenance to the human population. With the pace of development, these two land use classes continue to change over time. Land use change is a dynamic process under the influence of multiple drivers including climate change. Therefore, tracing the trajectory of the changes is challenging. The artificial neural network (ANN) has successfully been applied for tracing such a dynamic process to capture nonlinear responses. We test the application of the multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN) to project the future Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) for the year 2050 for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) nations which is a geopolitical union of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) use much frequently the term 'AFOLU' in their policy documents. Hence, we restricted our land use classification scheme as AFOLU for assessing the influence of climate change scenarios of the IPCC fifth assessment report (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). Agricultural land would increase in all the SAARC nations, with the highest increase in Pakistan and Maldives; moderate increase in Afghanistan, India and Nepal; and the least increase in Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. The forestry land use will witness a decreasing trend under all scenarios in all of the SAARC nations with varying levels of changes. The study is expected to assist planners and policymakers to develop nations' specific strategy to proportionate land use classes to meet various needs on a sustainable basis.}, }
@article {pmid32170152, year = {2020}, author = {Tsai, HY and Rubenstein, DR and Fan, YM and Yuan, TN and Chen, BF and Tang, Y and Chen, IC and Shen, SF}, title = {Locally-adapted reproductive photoperiodism determines population vulnerability to climate change in burying beetles.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1398}, pmid = {32170152}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Asia ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/*physiology ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Gardens ; Male ; Ovary ; Phenotype ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding how phenotypic traits vary among populations inhabiting different environments is critical for predicting a species' vulnerability to climate change. Yet, little is known about the key functional traits that determine the distribution of populations and the main mechanisms-phenotypic plasticity vs. local adaptation-underlying intraspecific functional trait variation. Using the Asian burying beetle Nicrophorus nepalensis, we demonstrate that mountain ranges differing in elevation and latitude offer unique thermal environments in which two functional traits-thermal tolerance and reproductive photoperiodism-interact to shape breeding phenology. We show that populations on different mountain ranges maintain similar thermal tolerances, but differ in reproductive photoperiodism. Through common garden and reciprocal transplant experiments, we confirm that reproductive photoperiodism is locally adapted and not phenotypically plastic. Accordingly, year-round breeding populations on mountains of intermediate elevation are likely to be most susceptible to future warming because maladaptation occurs when beetles try to breed at warmer temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid32169674, year = {2020}, author = {Charlier, P and Héry-Arnaud, G and Coppens, Y and Malaurie, J and Hoang-Oppermann, V and Deps, P and Kenmogne, JB and Foka, M and Josué, E and Schor, XE and Brun, L and Kepanga, M and Evanty, N and Julia, E and Bose, S and Iaukea, L and Romero Epiayu, J and Deo, S and Augias, A and Claverie, JM}, title = {Global warming and planetary health: An open letter to the WHO from scientific and indigenous people urging for paleo-microbiology studies.}, journal = {Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases}, volume = {82}, number = {}, pages = {104284}, doi = {10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104284}, pmid = {32169674}, issn = {1567-7257}, mesh = {Cadaver ; Epidemics ; *Global Health ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Indigenous Peoples ; Permafrost ; *Soil Microbiology ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {This article, written by a collective of international researchers and worldwide representatives of indigenous populations, is an open letter to the WHO, based on the latest elements from the scientific literature, and the latest climatological data. It takes stock of the health consequences of global warming, and urges research organizations to take an interest in infectious agents formerly stored in the layers of ground (frozen or not) and now mobilized, then released from a distance.}, }
@article {pmid32167633, year = {2020}, author = {Magel, JMT and Dimoff, SA and Baum, JK}, title = {Direct and indirect effects of climate change-amplified pulse heat stress events on coral reef fish communities.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {e02124}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2124}, pmid = {32167633}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//British Columbia Knowledge Development Fund/International ; //Canada Foundation for Innovation/International ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/International ; RAPID OCE-1446402//U.S. National Science Foundation/International ; //David and Lucile Packard Foundation/International ; //Canada - Mitacs/International ; //Centre for Asia-Pacific Initiatives/International ; //University of Victoria/International ; //Rufford Foundation/International ; //Pew Charitable Trusts/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Heat-Shock Response ; Humans ; Micronesia ; }, abstract = {Climate change-amplified temperature anomalies pose an imminent threat to coral reef ecosystems. While much focus has been placed on the effects of heat stress on scleractinian corals-including bleaching, mortality, and loss of reef structural complexity-and many studies have documented changes to reef fish communities arising indirectly from shifts in benthic composition, the direct impacts of heat stress on reef fish are much less well understood. Here, we quantify the direct and indirect effects of heat stress on reef fishes, using underwater visual censuses of coral reef fish communities conducted before, during, and after the 2015-2016 El Niño-induced global coral bleaching event. Surveys took place at the epicenter of this event, at 16 sites on Kiritimati (Republic of Kiribati; central equatorial Pacific) spanning across a gradient of local human disturbance. We expected that heat stress would have both direct and indirect negative effects on the reef fish community, with direct effects resulting from physiological stress during the event and indirect effects manifesting afterward as a consequence of coral mortality, and that the ability of fish communities to recover following the heat stress would depend on levels of local human disturbance. We found that total reef fish biomass and abundance declined by >50% during heat stress, likely as a result of vertical migration of fish to cooler waters. One year after the cessation of heat stress, however, total biomass, abundance, and species richness had recovered to, or even exceeded, pre-heat stress levels. However, the biomass of corallivores declined by over 70% following severe coral loss, and reefs exposed to higher levels of local human disturbance showed impaired recovery following the heat stress. These findings enhance understanding of the projected impacts of climate change-associated marine heatwaves on reef fishes, and highlight the interacting effects of local and global stressors on this vital component of coral reef ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid32167619, year = {2020}, author = {Hunt, JR and Celestina, C and Kirkegaard, JA}, title = {The realities of climate change, conservation agriculture and soil carbon sequestration.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, pages = {3188-3189}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15082}, pmid = {32167619}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Soil ; }, }
@article {pmid32167293, year = {2020}, author = {Vandepaer, L and Panos, E and Bauer, C and Amor, B}, title = {Energy System Pathways with Low Environmental Impacts and Limited Costs: Minimizing Climate Change Impacts Produces Environmental Cobenefits and Challenges in Toxicity and Metal Depletion Categories.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {54}, number = {8}, pages = {5081-5092}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b06484}, pmid = {32167293}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; Metals ; Switzerland ; }, abstract = {Environmental indicators based on the life cycle assessment method are integrated into an energy system model. This integration allows for the generation of comprehensive environmental assessments of future energy systems and for determining energy scenarios with less environmental impacts and moderate cost increases. In Switzerland, which is used as a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of our approach, it is possible to generate pathways with a 5% cost increase on the cost-optimal situation, causing an impact score for climate change that is 2% higher than the minimum feasible solution. The minimization of life-cycle impacts on climate change generates substantial environmental cobenefits with regard to human health, air pollution, ozone depletion, acidification, and land transformation. However, this minimization also creates trade-offs that exacerbate the effects of metal depletion and human toxicity caused by upstream extraction and manufacturing linked to technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles. Finally, ambitious reduction targets of 95% direct (i.e., within the country) CO2 emissions for the year 2050 might still result in substantial climate change impacts should emissions embodied in the infrastructure and upstream supply chain not be jointly mitigated jointly.}, }
@article {pmid32167169, year = {2020}, author = {Sutton, B and Mulvenna, V and Voronoff, D and Humphrys, T}, title = {Acting on climate change and health in Victoria.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {212}, number = {8}, pages = {345-346.e1}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.50527}, pmid = {32167169}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Policy Making ; *Public Health ; Victoria ; }, }
@article {pmid32166685, year = {2020}, author = {Shahbaz, P and Boz, I and Ul Haq, S}, title = {Adaptation options for small livestock farmers having large ruminants (cattle and buffalo) against climate change in Central Punjab Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {15}, pages = {17935-17948}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08112-9}, pmid = {32166685}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Buffaloes ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Livestock ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {Climate change is not a myth anymore and changing with every passing year regardless of the efforts to mitigate its root causes. Livestock being a key source of employment to a large poor world population also contributes to food security and poverty eradication. With the changing climate livestock farmers are also making their farms compatible to the new natural ecosystem. Therefore, this study investigated how small livestock farmers having large ruminants inventory perceive changes in climate, which strategies they adapt and the factors influencing the adaptation of climate changes strategies in livestock. Primary data was collected from 180 small livestock farmers of Central Punjab, and multiple (step-wise) regression analysis was used to determine the factors affecting adaptation of climate change strategies. Livestock farmers are also well aware of the climate change as majority of the farmers (63.4% and 71.4%) perceived an increase in temperature and precipitation, respectively. Livestock farmers made an attempt to adopt conventional climate change strategies such as mix farming, reduction in animals, provision of more drinking water, use of tree shades, livestock diversification, use of muddy roof, and floor in order to cope with climate changes. The adoption of these measures was significantly influenced by animal inventory, climate knowledge, livestock working hours, livestock experience, distance of veterinary hospital, and livestock-related training/workshops. Government needs to increase technical and logistic capacity of veterinary doctors, and should create awareness among small livestock farmers through media.}, }
@article {pmid32166442, year = {2020}, author = {Ferreira, NCR and Miranda, JH}, title = {Potential occurrence of Puccinia sorghi in corn crops in Paraná, under scenarios of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {7}, pages = {1051-1062}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01880-6}, pmid = {32166442}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Basidiomycota ; Brazil ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {In the face of climate change scenarios, it is important to evaluate the possibility of an increase in the incidence of corn crop diseases and to promote studies aimed at creating mitigation measures. This paper aims to study the impacts that regional climate changes may have on the potential occurrence of corn common rust (Puccinia sorghi), in the region of Castro, Paraná (Brazil). The Eta climate model was driven by the global model CanESM2. We use the Historical simulation of the EtaCanESM2 model from 1981 to 2005, and future projections from 2046 to 2070 to simulate the occurrence of common rust. The criteria was adopted to simulate the common rust disease favored in environments with the minimum temperature lower than 8 °C, the maximum temperature higher than 32 °C, average temperature between 16 and 23 °C, and relative humidity higher than 95%. In Brazil, there are two different seasons for corn crop (Normaland Safrinha). Results show that relative humidity and minimum temperature simulated by the model presented good skills, approaching the observed data. Compared to the Historical simulation, the projections show a tendency to increase of maximum and minimum temperature in the future, and a tendency to decrease relative humidity. There is an increase in the number of days with the potential for the occurrence of the disease. The distribution of days with favorable conditions to rust disease tends to change in the future. In the Normaland Safrinhaseasons, there is a tendency to increase the number of days with favorable conditions to common rust occurrence. The influence of planting time is greater in Historical simulation when compared to future scenarios. The Safrinhaseason may present more days with the potential for the occurrence of common rust in the future than the Normalseason.}, }
@article {pmid32165743, year = {2020}, author = {Gyles, C}, title = {Climate Change - A response.}, journal = {The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne}, volume = {61}, number = {3}, pages = {225}, pmid = {32165743}, issn = {0008-5286}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid32165742, year = {2020}, author = {Wilson, M}, title = {Climate Change.}, journal = {The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne}, volume = {61}, number = {3}, pages = {225}, pmid = {32165742}, issn = {0008-5286}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid32165456, year = {2020}, author = {Stacy, A}, title = {Climate change in common.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {164}, pmid = {32165456}, issn = {1715-5258}, mesh = {Brazil ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Family Practice ; }, }
@article {pmid32163476, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, L and Liao, J and Wu, Y and Zhang, Y}, title = {Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {e0229984}, pmid = {32163476}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Breeding ; China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Endangered Species ; Russia ; }, abstract = {The red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) is an endangered species listed by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) HARRIS J (2013). The largest population of this species is distributed mainly in China and Russia, which is called continental population SU L (2012)-Curt D (1996). This population is migratory, which migrates from its breeding range located in Northeast China and Southern Russia, to the wintering range in the south of China to spend the winter every year. The breeding range of this species is critical for red-crowned crane to survive and maintain its population. Previous studies showed the negative effects of habitat loss and degradation on the breeding area of red-crowned crane Ma Z (1998), Claire M (2019). Climate change may also threat the survival of this endangered species. Previous studies investigated the impacts of climate change on the breeding range or wintering range in China Wu (2012), [1]. However, no study was conducted to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the whole breeding range of this species. Here, we used bioclimatic niche modeling to predict the potential breeding range of red-crowned crane under current climate conditions and project onto future climate change scenarios. Our results show that the breeding range of the continental population of red-crowned crane will shift northward over this century and lose almost all of its current actual breeding range. The climate change will also change the country owning the largest portion of breeding range from China to Russia, suggesting that Russia should take more responsibility to preserve this endangered species in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32162168, year = {2020}, author = {Seritan, AL and Seritan, I}, title = {The Time Is Now: Climate Change and Mental Health.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {44}, number = {3}, pages = {373-374}, pmid = {32162168}, issn = {1545-7230}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Disorders ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid32159584, year = {2020}, author = {Bosi, C and Pezzopane, JRM and Sentelhas, PC}, title = {Silvopastoral system with Eucalyptus as a strategy for mitigating the effects of climate change on Brazilian pasturelands.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {92}, number = {suppl 1}, pages = {e20180425}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765202020180425}, pmid = {32159584}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Eucalyptus/growth &amp; development ; *Forestry ; *Grassland ; Humidity ; Microclimate ; Seasons ; Soil ; Sunlight ; Wind ; }, abstract = {The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of Eucalyptus trees in a silvopastoral system on the microclimate and the capacity of that to mitigate the effects of climate change on pasturelands. This study included an open pasture of Piatã palisadegrass and an adjacent pasture that contained both palisadegrass and East-to-West rows of Eucalyptus trees, with 15 m between rows, 2 m between trees within rows. The micrometeorological measurements were collected at several distances from the tree rows and in the open pasture. The silvopastoral system was associated with greater between-row shading when solar declination was high and greater near-tree shading when solar declination was around -22°. Both soil heat flux and temperature were influenced by solar radiation, wind speed, and the ability of tree canopies to reduce radiation losses. Wind speed was consistently lower in the silvopastoral system, owing to the windbreak effect of the Eucalyptus trees. The present study demonstrated that silvopastoral systems can be used to attenuate the effects of climate change, as trees can protect pastureland from intense solar radiation and wind, thereby reducing evapotranspiration and, consequently, improving soil water availability for the understory crop.}, }
@article {pmid32159021, year = {2019}, author = {Gorris, ME and Treseder, KK and Zender, CS and Randerson, JT}, title = {Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {3}, number = {10}, pages = {308-327}, pmid = {32159021}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) is a fungal disease endemic to the southwestern United States. Across this region, temperature and precipitation influence the extent of the endemic region and number of Valley fever cases. Climate projections for the western United States indicate that temperatures will increase and precipitation patterns will shift, which may alter disease dynamics. We estimated the area potentially endemic to Valley fever using a climate niche model derived from contemporary climate and disease incidence data. We then used our model with projections of climate from Earth system models to assess how endemic areas will change during the 21st century. By 2100 in a high warming scenario, our model predicts that the area of climate-limited endemicity will more than double, the number of affected states will increase from 12 to 17, and the number of Valley fever cases will increase by 50%. The Valley fever endemic region will expand north into dry western states, including Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Precipitation will limit the disease from spreading into states farther east and along the central and northern Pacific coast. This is the first quantitative estimate of how climate change may influence Valley fever in the United States. Our predictive model of Valley fever endemicity may provide guidance to public health officials to establish disease surveillance programs and design mitigation efforts to limit the impacts of this disease.}, }
@article {pmid32158513, year = {2020}, author = {Mohan, V and Hardee, K and Savitzky, C}, title = {Building community resilience to climate change: The role of a Population-Health-Environment programme in supporting the community response to cyclone Haruna in Madagascar.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {730}, pmid = {32158513}, issn = {1996-1421}, }
@article {pmid32154079, year = {2020}, author = {Yang, F and Antonietti, M}, title = {Artificial Humic Acids: Sustainable Materials against Climate Change.}, journal = {Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany)}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {1902992}, pmid = {32154079}, issn = {2198-3844}, abstract = {Humic acid, as a natural organic matter, is widely distributed in surface soil, oceans, rivers, and other ecological environments throughout the whole earth ecosystem. Humic acid provides abundant organic carbon and helps to maintain a hydrated, pH and redox buffered environment hosting the soil microbiome. Humic acid is however also a largely ignored polymer material full of exciting functional properties, and its scale is enormous. This perspective article discusses its synthesis and management as a tool to tackle parts of the climate crisis as well its use in technological applications, as made by chemical conversion of agricultural side products to artificial humic acids.}, }
@article {pmid32153323, year = {2020}, author = {Yadav, S and Mishra, A}, title = {Ectopic expression of C4 photosynthetic pathway genes improves carbon assimilation and alleviate stress tolerance for future climate change.}, journal = {Physiology and molecular biology of plants : an international journal of functional plant biology}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {195-209}, pmid = {32153323}, issn = {0971-5894}, abstract = {Alteration in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and other environmental factors are the significant cues of global climate change. Environmental factors affect the most fundamental biological process including photosynthesis and different metabolic pathways. The feeding of the rapidly growing world population is another challenge which imposes pressure to improve productivity and quality of the existing crops. C4 plants are considered the most productive, containing lower photorespiration, and higher water-use &amp; N-assimilation efficiencies, compared to C3 plants. Besides, the C4-photosynthetic genes not only play an important role in carbon assimilation but also modulate abiotic stresses. In this review, fundamental three metabolic processes (C4, C3, and CAM) of carbon dioxide assimilation, the evolution of C4-photosynthetic genes, effect of elevated CO2 on photosynthesis, and overexpression of C4-photosynthetic genes for higher photosynthesis were discussed. Kranz-anatomy is considered an essential prerequisite for the terrestrial C4 carbon assimilation, but single-celled C4 plant species changed this well-established paradigm. C4 plants are insensitive to an elevated CO2 stress condition but performed better under stress conditions. Overexpression of essential C4-photosynthetic genes such as PEPC, PPDK, and NADP-ME in C3 plants like Arabidopsis, tobacco, rice, wheat, and potato not only improved photosynthesis but also provided tolerance to various environmental stresses, especially drought. The review provides useful information for sustainable productivity and yield under elevated CO2 environment, which to be explored further for CO2 assimilation and also abiotic stress tolerance. Additionally, it provides a better understanding to explore C4-photosynthetic gene(s) to cope with global warming and prospective adverse climatic changes.}, }
@article {pmid32152872, year = {2020}, author = {Battersby, J and Hunter-Adams, J}, title = {No Looking Back: [Food]ways Forward for Healthy African Cities in Light of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {97}, number = {2}, pages = {226-229}, pmid = {32152872}, issn = {1468-2869}, support = {108458//International Development Research Centre/International ; }, }
@article {pmid32152856, year = {2020}, author = {Li, X and Li, Y and Li, G}, title = {A scientometric review of the research on the impacts of climate change on water quality during 1998-2018.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {13}, pages = {14322-14341}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-020-08176-7}, pmid = {32152856}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {No.51178303//the National Science Foundation of China/ ; TD13-5021//the Training Program for Innovative Research Team in Tianjin Institutions of Higher Education/ ; No//the Tianjin Key Laboratory of Hazardous Waste Safety Disposal and Recycling Technology/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Eutrophication ; Humans ; Lakes ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Research on the impacts of climate change on water quality helps to better formulate water quality strategies under the challenge of an uncertain future, which is critical for human survival and development. As a result, in recent years, there has been growing attention given to research in the field, and the attention has led to an increasing number of publications, which is why a systematic literature review on this topic has been proposed in the current paper. This study reviewed 2998 related articles extracted from the Science Citation Index-Expanded (SCI-E) database from 1998 to 2018 to analyse and visualize historical trend evolution, current research hotspots, and promising ideas for future research by combining a traditional literature review, bibliometric analysis, and scientific knowledge mapping. The results revealed that the impacts of climate change on water quality mainly included the aggravation of eutrophication, changes in the flow, hydrological and thermal conditions, and the destruction of ecosystems and biodiversity. Further exploration of the influence mechanism of climate change on cyanobacteria is an emerging research topic. Additionally, the water quality conditions of shallow lakes and drinking water are promising future research objects. In the context of climate change, the general rules of water quality management and the scientific planning of land use are of great significance and need to be further studied. This study provides a practical and valuable reference for researchers to help with the selection of future research topics, which may contribute to further development in this field.}, }
@article {pmid32152593, year = {2020}, author = {Phillips, N}, title = {Climate change made Australia's devastating fire season 30% more likely.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00627-y}, pmid = {32152593}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32152412, year = {2020}, author = {Schlichtholz, P}, title = {Author Correction: Subsurface ocean flywheel of coupled climate variability in the Barents Sea hotspot of global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4732}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-61544-8}, pmid = {32152412}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32152271, year = {2020}, author = {McDonough, LK and Santos, IR and Andersen, MS and O'Carroll, DM and Rutlidge, H and Meredith, K and Oudone, P and Bridgeman, J and Gooddy, DC and Sorensen, JPR and Lapworth, DJ and MacDonald, AM and Ward, J and Baker, A}, title = {Changes in global groundwater organic carbon driven by climate change and urbanization.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1279}, pmid = {32152271}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change and urbanization can increase pressures on groundwater resources, but little is known about how groundwater quality will change. Here, we use a global synthesis (n = 9,404) to reveal the drivers of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is an important component of water chemistry and substrate for microorganisms that control biogeochemical reactions. Dissolved inorganic chemistry, local climate and land use explained ~ 31% of observed variability in groundwater DOC, whilst aquifer age explained an additional 16%. We identify a 19% increase in DOC associated with urban land cover. We predict major groundwater DOC increases following changes in precipitation and temperature in key areas relying on groundwater. Climate change and conversion of natural or agricultural areas to urban areas will decrease groundwater quality and increase water treatment costs, compounding existing constraints on groundwater resources.}, }
@article {pmid32150950, year = {2020}, author = {Canelón, SP and Boland, MR}, title = {A Systematic Literature Review of Factors Affecting the Timing of Menarche: The Potential for Climate Change to Impact Women's Health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {32150950}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {P30 ES013508/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; *Menarche/physiology ; *Women's Health/standards/trends ; }, abstract = {Menarche is the first occurrence of a woman's menstruation, an event that symbolizes reproductive capacity and the transition from childhood into womanhood. The global average age for menarche is 12 years and this has been declining in recent years. Many factors that affect the timing menarche in girls could be affected by climate change. A systematic literature review was performed regarding the timing of menarche and four publication databases were interrogated: EMBASE, SCOPUS, PubMed, and Cochrane Reviews. Themes were identified from 112 articles and related to environmental causes of perturbations in menarche (either early or late), disease causes and consequences of perturbations, and social causes and consequences. Research from climatology was incorporated to describe how climate change events, including increased hurricanes, avalanches/mudslides/landslides, and extreme weather events could alter the age of menarche by disrupting food availability or via increased toxin/pollutant release. Overall, our review revealed that these perturbations in the timing of menarche are likely to increase the disease burden for women in four key areas: mental health, fertility-related conditions, cardiovascular disease, and bone health. In summary, the climate does have the potential to impact women's health through perturbation in the timing of menarche and this, in turn, will affect women's risk of disease in future.}, }
@article {pmid32149170, year = {2020}, author = {Oyekale, AS}, title = {Dataset on cocoa production and climate change adaptation strategies in Ahafo Ano North District, Ghana.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {105275}, doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2020.105275}, pmid = {32149170}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {Sustainable cocoa production is susceptible to changes in some climatic parameters. This survey was carried out to understand the perceptions of cocoa farmers on climate change, its impacts on cocoa production and their adaptation methods. Stratified sampling method was used to select the farmers and data were collected with structured questionnaires. Stratification of the district was done based on existing seven administrative divisional offices which comprise of six area councils and one town council. Cocoa farmers were sampled within each stratum with sample size proportional to estimated number of farmers. During the survey, 378 cocoa farmers were interviewed from Abu-Bone (60), Anyinasuso (65), Biakoye (42), Kwasu-Abu (89), Subriso (35), Suponso (20) and Tepa (67). The dataset had been shared with this article and it is valuable for understanding the perceptions of cocoa farmers on climate change, cocoa production efficiency and determinants of climate change adaptation choices.}, }
@article {pmid32148315, year = {2020}, author = {Xie, Y and Wang, H and Lei, X}, title = {Simulation of climate change and thinning effects on productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China using 3-PGmix model.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {261}, number = {}, pages = {110249}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110249}, pmid = {32148315}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Larix ; }, abstract = {Understanding the effects of thinning on forest productivity under climate change is vital to adaptive forest management. In the present study, the 3-PGmix model was applied to simulate the thinning effects on productivity of Larix olgensis plantations under climate change using 164 sample plots collected from the 6th, 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories in Jilin Province, northeast China. Climate scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were adopted from 2011 to 2100 with corresponding reference years (1981-2010). We simulated four cutting intensities: no-thinning, NT; low intensity thinning with 10% stem removal, LT; moderate thinning with 20% stem removal, MT and heavy thinning with 30% stem removal, HT for three times with 5- and 10-year thinning intervals. The results indicated that the mean net primary productivity (NPP) during the simulated 90 years was increased under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The LT and MT had positive but HT had negative effects on the mean NPP for the same climate scenario. Increased thinning intensity facilitated the positive effects of climate change on NPP but without a significant interaction effect. During the simulation, LT had the highest NPP value and HT had the biggest NPP increase under future climate change. We also discussed the management of larch plantations under climate change and advocated low intensity thinning with 10-year thinning interval to gain maximum NPP for mitigating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32144247, year = {2020}, author = {Maberly, SC and O'Donnell, RA and Woolway, RI and Cutler, MEJ and Gong, M and Jones, ID and Merchant, CJ and Miller, CA and Politi, E and Scott, EM and Thackeray, SJ and Tyler, AN}, title = {Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1232}, pmid = {32144247}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped robustly and largely contiguously globally, even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21[st] century climate projections, we found that 12%, 27% and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080-2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework can facilitate the global scaling of lake-research.}, }
@article {pmid32134926, year = {2020}, author = {Free, CM and Mangin, T and Molinos, JG and Ojea, E and Burden, M and Costello, C and Gaines, SD}, title = {Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {e0224347}, pmid = {32134926}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fisheries/*economics/organization &amp; administration ; Fishes ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Although climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine fisheries, climate-adaptive fisheries management could mitigate many of the negative impacts on human society. We forecast global fisheries biomass, catch, and profits to 2100 under three climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and five levels of management reform to (1) determine the impact of climate change on national fisheries and (2) quantify the national-scale benefits of implementing climate-adaptive fisheries reforms. Management reforms accounting for shifting productivity and shifting distributions would yield higher catch and profits in the future relative to today for 60-65% of countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but for only 35% of countries under the most severe scenario. Furthermore, these management reforms would yield higher cumulative catch and profits than business-as-usual management for nearly all countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but would yield lower cumulative catch for 40% of countries under the most severe scenario. Fortunately, perfect fisheries management is not necessary to achieve these benefits: transboundary cooperation with 5-year intervals between adaptive interventions would result in comparable outcomes. However, the ability for realistic management reforms to offset the negative impacts of climate change is bounded by changes in underlying biological productivity. Although realistic reforms could generate higher catch and profits for 23-50% of countries experiencing reductions in productivity, the remaining countries would need to develop, expand, and reform aquaculture and other food production sectors to offset losses in capture fisheries. Still, climate-adaptive management is more profitable than business-as-usual management in all countries and we provide guidance on implementing-and achieving the benefits of-climate-adaptive fisheries reform along a gradient of scientific, management, and enforcement capacities.}, }
@article {pmid32133399, year = {2020}, author = {Praetorius, SK and Condron, A and Mix, AC and Walczak, MH and McKay, JL and Du, J}, title = {The role of Northeast Pacific meltwater events in deglacial climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {eaay2915}, pmid = {32133399}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Columbia River megafloods occurred repeatedly during the last deglaciation, but the impacts of this fresh water on Pacific hydrography are largely unknown. To reconstruct changes in ocean circulation during this period, we used a numerical model to simulate the flow trajectory of Columbia River megafloods and compiled records of sea surface temperature, paleo-salinity, and deep-water radiocarbon from marine sediment cores in the Northeast Pacific. The North Pacific sea surface cooled and freshened during the early deglacial (19.0-16.5 ka) and Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) intervals, coincident with the appearance of subsurface water masses depleted in radiocarbon relative to the sea surface. We infer that Pacific meltwater fluxes contributed to net Northern Hemisphere cooling prior to North Atlantic Heinrich Events, and again during the Younger Dryas stadial. Abrupt warming in the Northeast Pacific similarly contributed to hemispheric warming during the Bølling and Holocene transitions. These findings underscore the importance of changes in North Pacific freshwater fluxes and circulation in deglacial climate events.}, }
@article {pmid32133022, year = {2020}, author = {Vieira, J and Carvalho, A and Campelo, F}, title = {Tree Growth Under Climate Change: Evidence From Xylogenesis Timings and Kinetics.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {90}, pmid = {32133022}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Tree growth is one of the most studied aspects of tree biology, particularly secondary growth. In the Mediterranean region, cambial activity is mostly determined by water availability. Climatic projections for the Mediterranean region predict more frequent and intense droughts, and longer periods without precipitation. To investigate tree growth under the predicted scenarios of climate change, a water manipulation experiment was conducted in a maritime pine stand (Pinus pinaster Aiton). In 2017, fifteen trees were divided into three groups: control, rain exclusion, and irrigation. Drought conditions were simulated by installing a continuous plastic sheet on the forest floor from March to September. Trees under irrigation treatment were watered twice a week in September. Cambial activity and xylem formation was monitored every 10 days from February 2017 until March 2018. Cell production was maximal around the spring equinox in all treatments. Trees under rain exclusion decreased cell production rates, xylogenesis duration, and latewood cell wall thickness. The extra irrigation in September did not produce noticeable differences in xylogenesis compared to trees in the control treatment. The synchronization of maximum cambial division rates around the vernal equinox (spring) could allow Mediterranean trees to mitigate the impact of summer drought. With the predicted increase in drought intensity and frequency, lower tree productivity, carbon sequestration, and wood biomass are expected.}, }
@article {pmid32132001, year = {2020}, author = {Ramsay, G and Ramsay, W and Ramsay, R}, title = {Tackling climate change: "plant good, meat bad" is overly simplistic.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {368}, number = {}, pages = {m805}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.m805}, pmid = {32132001}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid32131471, year = {2020}, author = {Grossi, G and Vitali, A and Lacetera, N and Danieli, PP and Bernabucci, U and Nardone, A}, title = {Carbon Footprint of Mediterranean Pasture-Based Native Beef: Effects of Agronomic Practices and Pasture Management under Different Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {32131471}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {A better understanding of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is needed when assessing the carbon footprint (CFP) of livestock products and the effectiveness of possible agriculture mitigation strategies. This study aimed (i) to perform a cradle-to-gate CFP of pasture-based beef cattle in a Mediterranean agropastoral system (ii) and to assess the effects on the CFP of alternative tillage, fertilizing, and grazing practices under current (NCC) and future climate change (CC) scenarios. Minimum (Mt) and no-tillage (Nt) practices were compared to current tillage (Ct); a 50% increase (Hf) and decrease (Lf) in fertilization was evaluated against the current (Cf) rate; and rotational grazing (Rg) was evaluated versus the current continuous grazing (Cg) system. The denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model was run using NCC as well as representative concentration pathways to investigate the effects of farm management practices coupled with future CC scenarios on SOC dynamics, N2O fluxes, and crop yield. Within NCC and CtCf, an emission intensity of 26.9 ± 0.7 kg CO2eq per kg live body weight was estimated. Compared to Ct, the adoption of Mt and Nt reduced the CFP by 20% and 35%, respectively, while NtHf reduced it by 40%. Conservation tillage practices were thus shown to be effective in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid32129873, year = {2020}, author = {Goodwin, MM and Shattell, M}, title = {Why Nurses Should Care About Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of psychosocial nursing and mental health services}, volume = {58}, number = {3}, pages = {3-4}, doi = {10.3928/02793695-20200217-01}, pmid = {32129873}, issn = {0279-3695}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; *Natural Disasters ; Nurse's Role/*psychology ; Public Health/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid32129019, year = {2020}, author = {Ngatchou, N and Martin, PY and Fakhouri, F and Pruijm, M}, title = {[The kidneys : possible victims of global warming ?].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {16}, number = {683}, pages = {412-416}, pmid = {32129019}, issn = {1660-9379}, mesh = {Central America/epidemiology ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Kidney/*pathology/*physiopathology ; Kidney Diseases/*epidemiology/*etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Kidney Failure, Chronic/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Sri Lanka/epidemiology ; Switzerland/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Over the last decades, an increasing number of cases of chronic and end-stage kidney disease has been observed in Central America and Asia. This kidney disease mainly affects young farmers without classic renal risk factors. The clinical presentation includes a progressive decrease of the glomerular filtration rate, minimal proteinuria and the presence of tubulo-interstitial nephritis at renal biopsy. A close link with global warming is suspected for this disease, called (according to its location) meso-american nephropathy, Sri Lanka nephropathy or chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology. Others have suggested that intake of water contaminated with pesticides may be responsible. This article provides an overview of this new kidney disease. Measures to prevent acute kidney injury during heat waves in Switzerland are also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid32128147, year = {2020}, author = {Murphy, GEP and Romanuk, TN and Worm, B}, title = {Cascading effects of climate change on plankton community structure.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {2170-2181}, pmid = {32128147}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Plankton communities account for at least half of global primary production and play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Warming and acidification may alter the interaction chains in these communities from the bottom and top of the food web. Yet, the relative importance of these potentially complex interactions has not yet been quantified. Here, we examine the isolated and combined effects of warming, acidification, and reductions in phytoplankton and predator abundances in a series of factorial experiments. We find that warming directly impacts the top of the food web, but that the intermediate trophic groups are more strongly influenced by indirect effects mediated by altered top-down interactions. Direct manipulations of predator and phytoplankton abundance reveal similar strong top-down interactions following top predator decline. A meta-analysis of published experiments further supports the conclusion that warming has stronger direct impacts on the top and bottom of the food web rather than the intermediate trophic groups, with important differences between freshwater and marine plankton communities. Our results reveal that the trophic effect of warming cascading down from the top of the plankton food web is a powerful agent of global change.}, }
@article {pmid32127682, year = {2020}, author = {Marshall, DJ and Pettersen, AK and Bode, M and White, CR}, title = {Developmental cost theory predicts thermal environment and vulnerability to global warming.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {406-411}, pmid = {32127682}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Metazoans must develop from zygotes to feeding organisms. In doing so, developing offspring consume up to 60% of the energy provided by their parent. The cost of development depends on two rates: metabolic rate, which determines the rate that energy is used; and developmental rate, which determines the length of the developmental period. Both development and metabolism are highly temperature-dependent such that developmental costs should be sensitive to the local thermal environment. Here, we develop, parameterize and test developmental cost theory, a physiologically explicit theory that reveals that ectotherms have narrow thermal windows in which developmental costs are minimized (Topt). Our developmental cost theory-derived estimates of Topt predict the natural thermal environment of 71 species across seven phyla remarkably well (R[2] ~0.83). Developmental cost theory predicts that costs of development are much more sensitive to small changes in temperature than classic measures such as survival. Warming-driven changes to developmental costs are predicted to strongly affect population replenishment and developmental cost theory provides a mechanistic foundation for determining which species are most at risk. Developmental cost theory predicts that tropical aquatic species and most non-nesting terrestrial species are likely to incur the greatest increase in developmental costs from future warming.}, }
@article {pmid32125745, year = {2020}, author = {Capblancq, T and Morin, X and Gueguen, M and Renaud, J and Lobreaux, S and Bazin, E}, title = {Climate-associated genetic variation in Fagus sylvatica and potential responses to climate change in the French Alps.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {783-796}, doi = {10.1111/jeb.13610}, pmid = {32125745}, issn = {1420-9101}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; *Climate Change ; Fagus/*genetics ; France ; *Gene-Environment Interaction ; *Genetic Variation ; }, abstract = {Local adaptation patterns have been found in many plants and animals, highlighting the genetic heterogeneity of species along their range of distribution. In the next decades, global warming is predicted to induce a change in the selective pressures that drive this adaptive variation, forcing a reshuffling of the underlying adaptive allele distributions. For species with low dispersion capacity and long generation time such as trees, the rapidity of the change could impede the migration of beneficial alleles and lower their capacity to track the changing environment. Identifying the main selective pressures driving the adaptive genetic variation is thus necessary when investigating species capacity to respond to global warming. In this study, we investigate the adaptive landscape of Fagus sylvatica along a gradient of populations in the French Alps. Using a double-digest restriction-site-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing approach, we identified 7,000 SNPs from 570 individuals across 36 different sites. A redundancy analysis (RDA)-derived method allowed us to identify several SNPs that were strongly associated with climatic gradients; moreover, we defined the primary selective gradients along the natural populations of F. sylvatica in the Alps. Strong effects of elevation and humidity, which contrast north-western and south-eastern site, were found and were believed to be important drivers of genetic adaptation. Finally, simulations of future genetic landscapes that used these findings allowed identifying populations at risk for F. sylvatica in the Alps, which could be helpful for future management plans.}, }
@article {pmid32123294, year = {2020}, author = {Albouy, C and Delattre, V and Donati, G and Frölicher, TL and Albouy-Boyer, S and Rufino, M and Pellissier, L and Mouillot, D and Leprieur, F}, title = {Author Correction: Global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4257}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-61227-4}, pmid = {32123294}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid32119666, year = {2020}, author = {Xu, Z and Bambrick, H and Frentiu, FD and Devine, G and Yakob, L and Williams, G and Hu, W}, title = {Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {e0008118}, pmid = {32119666}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cost of Illness ; Dengue/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Disease Transmission, Infectious ; *Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; Incidence ; Mosquito Vectors/*growth &amp; development/radiation effects ; Prevalence ; Topography, Medical ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, "the future of dengue" refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue.}, }
@article {pmid32118862, year = {2020}, author = {Dzurec, L}, title = {Nursing and Health at the Heart of Climate Change Debates.}, journal = {Rehabilitation nursing : the official journal of the Association of Rehabilitation Nurses}, volume = {45}, number = {2}, pages = {55-56}, doi = {10.1097/RNJ.0000000000000250}, pmid = {32118862}, issn = {2048-7940}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Nursing/methods/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid32118121, year = {2019}, author = {Jarmul, S and Liew, Z and Haines, A and Scheelbeek, P}, title = {Climate change mitigation in food systems: the environmental and health impacts of shifting towards sustainable diets, a systematic review protocol.}, journal = {Wellcome open research}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {205}, pmid = {32118121}, issn = {2398-502X}, abstract = {Food systems contribute greatly to global climate change due to their substantial contributions to greenhouse gas emissions, water use, and resource allocation. In addition, current food systems fail to deliver healthy and sustainable foods for all, with obesity as well as undernourishment remaining a pertinent global issue. Mounting pressures such as population growth and urbanisation urge rapid and transformational adaptations in food systems to sustainably feed a growing population. Sustainable diets have been promoted as a potential climate change mitigation strategy, and are characterized by high plant based foods and reduced animal-sourced and processed foods. While the evidence base on the potential health and environmental impacts of shifts towards sustainable diets has been growing rapidly over the past decade, there has been no recent synthesis of the evidence surrounding the health and climate mitigation benefits of sustainable consumption patterns. This systematic review will synthesize the evidence of both empirical and modelling studies assessing the direct health outcomes (such as all-cause mortality and body mass index) as well as environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use etc.) of shifts towards sustainable diets. Eight literature databases will be searched to identify studies published between 1999-2019 that report both health and environmental outcomes of sustainable diets. Evidence will be mapped and subsequently analysed based on the comparability of results and reported outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid32116128, year = {2020}, author = {Vardy, M}, title = {Relational agility: Visualizing near-real-time Arctic sea ice data as a proxy for climate change.}, journal = {Social studies of science}, volume = {50}, number = {5}, pages = {802-820}, doi = {10.1177/0306312720906532}, pmid = {32116128}, issn = {1460-3659}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Ice Cover ; }, abstract = {This ethnographic study at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) follows a group of scientists and communications specialists as they compose visualizations and analyses of near-real-time Arctic sea ice data. Research participants collectively make scientific judgments about near-real-time data in a highly visible public venue with 'relational agility'. They balance multiple phenomena including knowledge of how sceptics attack climate science, reflexivity about the conventions through which sea ice data is gathered, the needs of journalists working in a news cycle paced by Twitter, and the liveliness and vitality of sea ice itself. Relational agility, understood as a way of coordinating the social in relation to this plurality of contingent practices and processes, provides insight into the science and politics of nonlinear climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32114705, year = {2020}, author = {Froelich, BA and Daines, DA}, title = {In hot water: effects of climate change on Vibrio-human interactions.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {22}, number = {10}, pages = {4101-4111}, doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.14967}, pmid = {32114705}, issn = {1462-2920}, mesh = {Animals ; Bacterial Proteins/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Vibrio/metabolism/*pathogenicity ; Virulence Factors/metabolism ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Sea level rise and the anthropogenic warming of the world's oceans is not only an environmental tragedy, but these changes also result in a significant threat to public health. Along with coastal flooding and the encroachment of saltwater farther inland comes an increased risk of human interaction with pathogenic Vibrio species, such as Vibrio cholerae, V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus. This minireview examines the current literature for updates on the climatic changes and practices that impact the location and duration of the presence of Vibrio spp., as well as the infection routes, trends and virulence factors of these highly successful pathogens. Finally, an overview of current treatments and methods for the mitigation of both oral and cutaneous exposures are presented.}, }
@article {pmid32112742, year = {2020}, author = {van Daalen, K and Jung, L and Dhatt, R and Phelan, AL}, title = {Climate change and gender-based health disparities.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {e44-e45}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30001-2}, pmid = {32112742}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Immune System ; *Infections ; Nutritional Status ; }, }
@article {pmid32108854, year = {2020}, author = {Vardoulakis, S and Marks, G and Abramson, MJ}, title = {Lessons Learned from the Australian Bushfires: Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Public Health.}, journal = {JAMA internal medicine}, volume = {180}, number = {5}, pages = {635-636}, doi = {10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.0703}, pmid = {32108854}, issn = {2168-6114}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Wildfires ; }, }
@article {pmid32108735, year = {2020}, author = {Smith, JN and van Daalen, KR and Venkatraman, R}, title = {Climate change and its potential impact on menopausal hot flashes: a commentary.}, journal = {Menopause (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {27}, number = {7}, pages = {816-817}, doi = {10.1097/GME.0000000000001521}, pmid = {32108735}, issn = {1530-0374}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; *Hot Flashes ; Humans ; Male ; Menopause ; }, abstract = {Climate change is known to impact men and women differently and yet how it will change the health impact of menopause, specifically hot flashes, has not been well researched or understood. Given the duration of symptoms, the high number of women suffering from them, and the associated consequences, any marginal change in incidence due to climate change could result in a very large number of women being affected. Global health systems need to be prepared for this and ensure that gendered issues like menopause do not fall through the cracks as we prepare for our future climate. : Video Summary:http://links.lww.com/MENO/A549.}, }
@article {pmid32108075, year = {2020}, author = {Powell, K}, title = {Tackling climate change by planting trees.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {186}, number = {8}, pages = {256}, doi = {10.1136/vr.m786}, pmid = {32108075}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Trees ; United Kingdom ; Veterinarians/*psychology ; }, abstract = {The UK needs to step up its tree-planting efforts to make a dent on climate change. Here, Keith Powell suggests that vets could bring clients together to provide the money and land for such projects.}, }
@article {pmid32107638, year = {2020}, author = {Ali, A and Ashraf, MI and Gulzar, S and Akmal, M}, title = {Estimation of forest carbon stocks in temperate and subtropical mountain systems of Pakistan: implications for REDD+ and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {3}, pages = {198}, pmid = {32107638}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Forests ; Pakistan ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Forests are important carbon pools as they provide pathway to mitigate climate change. Quantification of forest carbon has gained momentum after Paris Agreement in 2015. This information is a prerequisite for REDD+ implementation and carbon trading. Temperate and subtropical mountain systems of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province host about one third of Pakistan's 4.51 million ha forests. Present study estimated forest carbon stocks in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The data was collected from 449 sites in different forests across the province using a stratified cluster sampling technique. Total carbon stock in the forests of the province was estimated at 144.71 million tons with an average of 127.66 ± 9.32 t/ha. Aboveground carbon stock was 68.15 million tons accounting for 48% of the total forest carbon stock of the province. Further, belowground biomass and litter accounted for 10% and 1% respectively. The mean aboveground carbon stock was 59.98 ± 4.26 t/ha. The highest aboveground carbon stock was found in dry temperate forests (99.41 t/ha) followed by moist temperate (85.04 t/ha). Overall, temperate forests have aboveground carbon stock of 90.52 t/ha. Temperate and subtropical forests of Pakistan with high carbon densities have ample potential for reducing forest sector emissions. Therefore, forests of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province having substantial carbon stocks must be conserved for climate change mitigation. Present study provides a framework for carbon stock assessments in other temperate and subtropical regions of the world.}, }
@article {pmid32107433, year = {2020}, author = {Préau, C and Grandjean, F and Sellier, Y and Gailledrat, M and Bertrand, R and Isselin-Nondedeu, F}, title = {Habitat patches for newts in the face of climate change: local scale assessment combining niche modelling and graph theory.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3570}, pmid = {32107433}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Triturus cristatus and Triturus marmoratus are two protected and declining newts occurring in the administrative department of Vienne, in France. They have limited dispersal abilities and rely on the connectivity between habitats and their suitability. In a warming climate, the locations of suitable habitats are expected to change, as is the connectivity. Here, we wondered how climate change might affect shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity of habitat patches, as connectivity is a key element enabling species to realize a potential range shift. We used ecological niche modelling (ENM), combining large-scale climate suitability with local scale, high-resolution habitat features, to identify suitable areas for the two species, under low and high warming scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We associated it with connectivity assessment through graph theory. The variable 'small ponds' contributed most to land cover-only ENMs for both species. Projections with climate change scenarios revealed a potential impact of warming on suitable habitat patches for newts, especially for T. cristatus. We observed a decrease in connectivity following a decrease in patch suitability. Our results highlight the important areas for newt habitat connectivity within the study area, and define those potentially threatened by climate warming. We provide information for prioritizing sites for acquisition, protection or restoration, and to advise landscape policies. Our framework is a useful and easily reproducible way to combine global climate requirements of the species with detailed information on species habitats and occurrence when available.}, }
@article {pmid32106456, year = {2020}, author = {Smith, WL and Weisz, E and Knuteson, R and Revercomb, H and Feldman, D}, title = {Retrieving Decadal Climate Change from Satellite Radiance Observations-A 100-year CO2 Doubling OSSE Demonstration.}, journal = {Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {32106456}, issn = {1424-8220}, abstract = {Preparing for climate change depends on the observation and prediction of decadal trends of the environmental variables, which have a direct impact on the sustainability of resources affecting the quality of life on our planet. The NASA Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission is proposed to provide climate quality benchmark spectral radiance observations for the purpose of determining the decadal trends of climate variables, and validating and improving the long-range climate model forecasts needed to prepare for the changing climate of the Earth. The CLARREO will serve as an in-orbit, absolute, radiometric standard for the cross-calibration of hyperspectral radiance spectra observed by the international system of polar operational satellite sounding sensors. Here, we demonstrate that the resulting accurately cross-calibrated polar satellite global infrared spectral radiance trends (e.g., from the Metop IASI instrument considered here) can be interpreted in terms of temperature and water vapor profile trends. This demonstration is performed using atmospheric state data generated for a 100-year period from 2000-2099, produced by a numerical climate model prediction that was forced by the doubling of the global average atmospheric CO2 over the 100-year period. The vertical profiles and spatial distribution of temperature decadal trends were successfully diagnosed by applying a linear regression profile retrieval algorithm to the simulated hyperspectral radiance spectra for the 100-year period. These results indicate that it is possible to detect decadal trends in atmospheric climate variables from high accuracy all-sky satellite infrared radiance spectra using the linear regression retrieval technique.}, }
@article {pmid32102967, year = {2019}, author = {May, K and Noel, D}, title = {School Nurses and Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of nursing research}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {275-286}, doi = {10.1891/0739-6686.38.275}, pmid = {32102967}, issn = {0739-6686}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *School Nursing ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a serious threat to human health. Nurses recognize vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by the consequences from climate change, especially the elderly, pregnant women, and children. Children with asthma and chronic health conditions are at the greatest risk for negative health outcomes and are the most important reason for climate advocacy. This descriptive correlational study seeks to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors of school nurses related to the health impacts of climate change. School nurses are in a unique position to address the health impacts of climate change and become fierce advocates of climate justice because of population they serve. School-age and adolescent students are particularly vulnerable to the consequences climate change, which include poor air quality, increasing temperatures, and increasing pollen counts. School nurses were invited to participate in the study via email and provided information about the Nurses Climate Change Challenge. It was the goal of the study to assess these domains in school nurses' and later develop continuing education to support the care and advocacy of students. The results suggest more continuing education on climate change and climate conscious care is needed for school nurses. The current challenge is not only to be more prepared to treat a greater number of illnesses induced by climate change, it is also to maintain expertise and adapt to a changing environment. Nurses must address the impact of climate change on a local level by making changes in practice and engaging in research so that they are prepared with the knowledge, and skills to offer expertise in environmental health and the care of school-age populations.}, }
@article {pmid32102960, year = {2019}, author = {Nicholas, PK and Breakey, S and Tagliareni, E and Tuck, I and Neal-Boylan, L and Ladd, E and Corless, IB and Reynolds, RY and Simmonds, K and Lussier-Duynstee, P}, title = {Advancing a School of Nursing Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Health.}, journal = {Annual review of nursing research}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {145-158}, doi = {10.1891/0739-6686.38.145}, pmid = {32102960}, issn = {0739-6686}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Organizational Objectives ; Schools, Nursing/*organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {This chapter addresses the development and advancement of the Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Health (CCCCJH) in the School of Nursing at the MGH Institute of Health Professions, the first nurse-led center emerged from the overwhelming evidence of climate change and its associated deleterious health consequences. The Center steering committee developed a mission, vision, and core values as well as a logo to guide the first year of initiatives and galvanize the efforts for the future. Workshop and symposium development, implementation, and evaluation are discussed. Future directions and the importance of educational initiatives aimed at expanding nursing and interprofessional knowledge of the intersection of climate and health are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid32102959, year = {2019}, author = {Eide, P and Odom-Maryon, T}, title = {Environmental and Climate Change Initiatives in Nursing Education.}, journal = {Annual review of nursing research}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {131-144}, doi = {10.1891/0739-6686.38.131}, pmid = {32102959}, issn = {0739-6686}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Education, Nursing/*organization &amp; administration ; *Environmental Health ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been labeled the greatest threat to public health and to global health in the 21st century. Addressing climate change has also been reframed as the greatest opportunity for global health in the 21st century, providing a more proactive lens through which to plan and implement actions. Significant climate change impacts to human health are numerous and mounting, including the direct effects of heatwaves, thermal stress and changed frequency or intensity of other extreme weather events. Climate change has been termed a complex public health issue affecting all areas of nursing practice dealing with individuals, families, communities, and the national health arena, and is therefore deserving of inclusion into nursing curricula throughout the entirety of prelicensure coursework. Nursing education programs that include this content will better prepare future nurses to face projected environmental challenges to human health.}, }
@article {pmid32100390, year = {2020}, author = {Nardell, E and Lederer, P and Mishra, H and Nathavitharana, R and Theron, G}, title = {Cool but dangerous: How climate change is increasing the risk of airborne infections.}, journal = {Indoor air}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {195-197}, pmid = {32100390}, issn = {1600-0668}, support = {K23 AI132648/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; T32 AI007061/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; 1D43TW009379//NIH/FIC/International ; }, mesh = {Air Conditioning/*adverse effects/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Air Filters ; *Air Microbiology ; *Climate Change ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Influenza, Human/transmission ; Measles/transmission ; Tuberculosis/transmission ; }, }
@article {pmid32100152, year = {2020}, author = {Cox, AR and Robertson, RJ and Rendell, WB and Bonier, F}, title = {Population decline in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) linked to climate change and inclement weather on the breeding ground.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {192}, number = {3}, pages = {713-722}, pmid = {32100152}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {32672//Canadian Foundation for Innovation/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Breeding ; Climate Change ; *Swallows ; Trees ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Population decline and the threat of extinction are realities currently facing many species. Yet, in most cases, the detailed demographic data necessary to identify causes of population decline are unavailable. Using 43 years (1975-2017) of data from a box-nesting population of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), we identified reduced survival of offspring as a probable demographic cause of population decline. Poor fledging success was associated with increased predation and poor weather conditions during early nestling development. Low juvenile survival and subsequent recruitment was linked to poor weather conditions during the post-fledging period and may also be linked to conditions on the wintering grounds. Regional weather conditions during critical stages of breeding (early nestling and post-fledging) have become progressively worse over the 43-year study period. None of the other factors linked to offspring survival have similarly deteriorated. Overall, our results suggest tree swallows should be added to the growing list of species challenged by climate change, and that other species of aerial insect specialists may face similar impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32099833, year = {2020}, author = {Pawankar, R and Wang, JY and Wang, IJ and Thien, F and Chang, YS and Latiff, AHA and Fujisawa, T and Zhang, L and Thong, BY and Chatchatee, P and Leung, TF and Kamchaisatian, W and Rengganis, I and Yoon, HJ and Munkhbayarlakh, S and Recto, MT and Neo, AGE and Le Pham, D and Lan, LTT and Davies, JM and Oh, JW}, title = {Asia Pacific Association of Allergy Asthma and Clinical Immunology White Paper 2020 on climate change, air pollution, and biodiversity in Asia-Pacific and impact on allergic diseases.}, journal = {Asia Pacific allergy}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {e11}, pmid = {32099833}, issn = {2233-8276}, abstract = {Air pollution, climate change, and reduced biodiversity are major threats to human health with detrimental effects on a variety of chronic noncommunicable diseases in particular respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. The extent of air pollution both outdoor and indoor air pollution and climate change including global warming is increasing-to alarming proportions particularly in the developing world especially rapidly industrializing countries worldwide. In recent years, Asia has experienced rapid economic growth and a deteriorating environment and increase in allergic diseases to epidemic proportions. Air pollutant levels in many Asian countries especially in China and India are substantially higher than are those in developed countries. Moreover, industrial, traffic-related, and household biomass combustion, indoor pollutants from chemicals and tobacco are major sources of air pollutants, with increasing burden on respiratory allergies. Here we highlight the major components of outdoor and indoor air pollutants and their impacts on respiratory allergies associated with asthma and allergic rhinitis in the Asia-Pacific region. With Asia-Pacific comprising more than half of the world's population there is an urgent need to increase public awareness, highlight targets for interventions, public advocacy and a call to action to policy makers to implement policy changes towards reducing air pollution with interventions at a population-based level.}, }
@article {pmid32099519, year = {2020}, author = {Pandakov, PG and Teofilova, TM and Kodzhabashev, ND}, title = {Status of the burbot (Lota lota L.) in the Lower Danube (Bulgaria) - a species threatened by climate change.}, journal = {ZooKeys}, volume = {910}, number = {}, pages = {143-161}, pmid = {32099519}, issn = {1313-2989}, abstract = {The study provides data on the catch composition, length-weight relationship, age structure, gender structure, growth, maturation, fecundity, distribution and conservation status of the burbot Lota lota (Linnaeus, 1758) in Bulgaria. During six consecutive winters (2008-2014) a total of 395 burbot specimens were caught. The total length and the weight of the specimens ranged from 16 to 51 cm and 29.8 to 1057 g, respectively. Seven age classes were represented (3- to 9-years-old), with 3-, 4-, and 5-years-old most abundant. The maximal life expectancy was estimated as 12 years. Male-female ratio was 1:1. Maturity happens at the age of four at the earliest, valid for both sexes. One-quarter of the fish, older than 5 years were determined as non-reproducing in the particular year. The absolute fecundity varied between 47 462 and 810 236 eggs for females ranging from 5 to 7 years old and from 25.7 to 41.5 cm in length. A dramatic decrease of burbot population was observed in the last two decades. Warming water temperatures of the Danube, together with fragmentation in its tributaries are considered as the major threats affecting the species. Therefore, the burbot in Bulgaria is classified as Endangered.}, }
@article {pmid32096898, year = {2021}, author = {Hudson, J and McQuaid, CD and Rius, M}, title = {Contemporary climate change hinders hybrid performance of ecologically dominant marine invertebrates.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {60-72}, doi = {10.1111/jeb.13609}, pmid = {32096898}, issn = {1420-9101}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Hybridization, Genetic ; South Africa ; Temperature ; Urochordata/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Human activities alter patterns of biodiversity, particularly through species extinctions and range shifts. Two of these activities are human mediated transfer of species and contemporary climate change, and both allow previously isolated genotypes to come into contact and hybridize, potentially altering speciation rates. Hybrids have been shown to survive environmental conditions not tolerated by either parent, suggesting that, under some circumstances, hybrids may be able to expand their ranges and perform well under rapidly changing conditions. However, studies assessing how hybridization influences contemporary range shifts are scarce. We performed crosses on Pyura herdmani and Pyura stolonifera (Chordata, Tunicata), two closely related marine invertebrate species that are ecologically dominant and can hybridize. These sister species live in sympatry along the coasts of southern Africa, but one has a disjunct distribution that includes northern hemisphere sites. We experimentally assessed the performance of hybrid and parental crosses using different temperature regimes, including temperatures predicted under future climate change scenarios. We found that hybrids showed lower performance than parental crosses at the experimental temperatures, suggesting that hybrids are unlikely to expand their ranges to new environments. In turn, we found that the more widespread species performed better at a wide array of temperatures, indicating that this parental species may cope better with future conditions. This study illustrates how offspring fitness may provide key insights to predict range expansions and how contemporary climate change may mediate both the ability of hybrids to expand their ranges and the occurrence of speciation as a result of hybridization.}, }
@article {pmid32094382, year = {2020}, author = {P J, V and Ravichandran, M and Subeesh, MP and Chatterjee, S and M, N}, title = {Global warming hiatus contributed weakening of the Mascarene High in the Southern Indian Ocean.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3255}, pmid = {32094382}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Mascarene High (MH) is a semi-permanent subtropical high-pressure zone in the South Indian Ocean. Apart from its large influence on African and Australian weather patterns, it also helps in driving the inter-hemispheric circulation between the Indian Ocean in the south and subcontinental landmass in the north. Using observations and reanalysis products, this study for the first time investigates recent warming trend observed in the MH region during the Global Warming Hiatus (GWH) period (1998-2016). Significant positive trends are observed in sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and oceanic heat content (OHC) during this period in the MH region. Mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals the dominant role of heat advection in the observed warming trend. During the GWH period, stronger zonal currents advect the warm waters from the Western Pacific (WP) towards the MH region via the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). This warming in the MH reduces the sea level pressure therein and establishes a weak pressure gradient between the MH and the northern hemisphere landmass. This in-turn weakens the cross-equatorial winds in the western Indian Ocean.}, }
@article {pmid32094170, year = {2020}, author = {Han, Y and An, Z and Marlon, JR and Bradley, RS and Zhan, C and Arimoto, R and Sun, Y and Zhou, W and Wu, F and Wang, Q and Burr, GS and Cao, J}, title = {Asian inland wildfires driven by glacial-interglacial climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {10}, pages = {5184-5189}, pmid = {32094170}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Wildfire can influence climate directly and indirectly, but little is known about the relationships between wildfire and climate during the Quaternary, especially how wildfire patterns varied over glacial-interglacial cycles. Here, we present a high-resolution soot record from the Chinese Loess Plateau; this is a record of large-scale, high-intensity fires over the past 2.6 My. We observed a unique and distinct glacial-interglacial cyclicity of soot over the entire Quaternary Period synchronous with marine δ[18]O and dust records, which suggests that ice-volume-modulated aridity controlled wildfire occurrences, soot production, and dust fluxes in central Asia. The high-intensity fires were also found to be anticorrelated with global atmospheric CO2 records over the past eight glacial-interglacial cycles, implying a possible connection between the fires, dust, and climate mediated through the iron cycle. The significance of this hypothetical connection remains to be determined, but the relationships revealed in this study hint at the potential importance of wildfire for the global climate system.}, }
@article {pmid32093488, year = {2020}, author = {Diadin, D and Vystavna, Y}, title = {Long-term meteorological data and isotopic composition in precipitation, surface water and groundwater revealed hydrologic sensitivity to climate change in East Ukraine.}, journal = {Isotopes in environmental and health studies}, volume = {56}, number = {2}, pages = {136-148}, doi = {10.1080/10256016.2020.1732369}, pmid = {32093488}, issn = {1477-2639}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Groundwater/*chemistry ; Hydrology ; Isotopes/analysis ; Meteorology ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain/*chemistry ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Russia ; Seasons ; Ukraine ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Our study focused on the incorporation of stable isotope ratios in water in climatic and hydrological observations to understand local hydroclimatic processes and determine basic hydrological sensitivity to climate change in East Ukraine. Long-term meteorological data from two stations at Kharkiv and Izyum showed that air temperature was significantly increased only for the cold period (November-April), while precipitation amount increased during all seasons. Applying two-component mixing model with stable isotope ratios in water, we determined that surface water in both regions was dominantly recharged by the cold precipitation. The highest share of cold precipitation contribution (∼79 %) was found in the river with the shortest water transit time. The isotopic signature of groundwater also indicated that water resources were mainly recharged during the cold period. Our findings reveal that basic hydrological sensitivity of the transboundary (Ukraine/Russian Federation) Seversky Donets River basin relates to hydroclimate changes mainly observed in November-April. We suggest that climate changes can influence surface water and groundwater but also the overall regional water availability that is highly dependent on the cold precipitation in these regions.}, }
@article {pmid32092873, year = {2020}, author = {Paramsothy, M}, title = {Alleviating Climate Change and Pollution with Nanomaterials.}, journal = {Nanomaterials (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {32092873}, issn = {2079-4991}, abstract = {Nanoparticles can be utilized to extract carbon from air, dyes from water and sludge from waste, and are gradually emerging as useful for tackling threats to our planet's health [...].}, }
@article {pmid32090795, year = {2020}, author = {Adedeji, AR and Zaini, F and Mathew, S and Dagar, L and Petra, MI and De Silva, LC}, title = {Sustainable energy towards air pollution and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {260}, number = {}, pages = {109978}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109978}, pmid = {32090795}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Climate Change ; Electricity ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {This is an evidence from a high-income economy in Southeast Asia and a support for scientific planning of the energy sector in ensuring air pollution and climate change mitigation. A comparative analysis of the energy options for electricity generation in the nation was made considering availability, cost and greenhouse gases emission - CO2, N2O and CH4, using a two-stage method comprising multi-objective optimization and TOPSIS. The renewable (RE) and non-renewable energy (NRE) options available were assessed through the lifecycle approach to determine the lifecycle greenhouse gas emission (LCGHG) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) per MWh of electricity. Considering historical electricity consumption, annual GDP and population growth from 1965, energy consumption for the year 2035 was forecasted using support vector machine regressor in Weka. Future plans in energy diversification pathways were examined through various scenario multi-objective optimizations with a constraint on resource availability and energy target using genetic algorithm in MATLAB. The outputs were ranked using TOPSIS method. Results showed that greenhouse gases emission could be reduced by 10.3 percent compared to business as usual scenario while the energy mix could attain 10 percent renewable energy in the grid at a relatively lower generation cost.}, }
@article {pmid32087819, year = {2020}, author = {Friel, S}, title = {Climate change and the people's health: the need to exit the consumptagenic system.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {395}, number = {10225}, pages = {666-668}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30257-9}, pmid = {32087819}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disasters ; Extreme Weather ; *Global Health ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Wildfires ; }, }
@article {pmid32085475, year = {2020}, author = {Krasna, H and Czabanowska, K and Jiang, S and Khadka, S and Morita, H and Kornfeld, J and Shaman, J}, title = {The Future of Careers at the Intersection of Climate Change and Public Health: What Can Job Postings and an Employer Survey Tell Us?.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {32085475}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Prospective Studies ; *Public Health ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change is acknowledged to be a major risk to public health. Skills and competencies related to climate change are becoming a part of the curriculum at schools of public health and are now a competency required by schools in Europe and Australia. However, it is unclear whether graduates of public health programs focusing on climate change are in demand in the current job market. The authors analyzed current job postings, 16 years worth of job postings on a public health job board, and survey responses from prospective employers. The current job market appears small but there is evidence from job postings that it may be growing, and 91.7% of survey respondents believe the need for public health professionals with training in climate change may grow in the next 5-10 years. Current employers value skills/competencies such as the knowledge of climate mitigation/adaptation, climate-health justice, direct/indirect and downstream effects of climate on health, health impact assessment, risk assessment, pollution-health consequences and causes, Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping, communication/writing, finance/economics, policy analysis, systems thinking, and interdisciplinary understanding. Ensuring that competencies align with current and future needs is a key aspect of curriculum development. At the same time, we recognize that while we attempt to predict future workforce needs with historical data or surveys, the disruptive reality created by climate change cannot be modeled from prior trends, and we must therefore adopt new paradigms of education for the emerging future.}, }
@article {pmid32081261, year = {2020}, author = {Leisner, CP}, title = {Review: Climate change impacts on food security- focus on perennial cropping systems and nutritional value.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {293}, number = {}, pages = {110412}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2020.110412}, pmid = {32081261}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Diet ; *Food Supply ; Fruit ; Genomics ; *Nutritive Value ; Phenomics ; Vegetables ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic increases in fossil fuel emissions have been a primary driver of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO2]) and other greenhouse gases resulting in warmer temperatures, alterations in precipitation patterns, and increased occurrence of extreme weather events in terrestrial areas across the globe. In agricultural growing regions, alterations in climate can challenge plant productivity in ways that impact the ability of the world to sustain adequate food production for a growing and increasingly affluent population with shifting access to affordable and nutritious food. While the knowledge gap that exists regarding potential climate change impacts is large across agriculture, it is especially large in specialty cropping systems. This includes fruit and vegetable crops, and perennial cropping systems which also contribute (along with row crops) to our global diet. In order to obtain a comprehensive view of the true impact of climate change on our global food supply, we must expand our narrow focus from improving yield and plant productivity to include the impact of climate change on the nutritional value of these crops. In order to address these questions, we need a multi-faceted approach that integrates physiology and genomics tools and conducts comprehensive experiments under realistic depictions of future projected climate. This review describes gaps in our knowledge in relation to these responses, and future questions and actions that are needed to develop a sustainable future food supply in light of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32080749, year = {2020}, author = {Khan, T and Conway, TM}, title = {Vulnerability of Common Urban Forest Species to Projected Climate Change and Practitioners Perceptions and Responses.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {65}, number = {4}, pages = {534-547}, pmid = {32080749}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forestry ; *Forests ; Ontario ; Trees ; }, abstract = {While urban forests are often identified as part of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, less attention has been given to vulnerabilities urban trees may have to a changing climate and practitioners' response to those vulnerabilities. Yet, current planting and management decisions will impact how urban forests fare under future climatic conditions. We explore a case study of Mississauga (Ontario, Canada) to examine (1) if common urban forest species are vulnerable to two scenarios of projected climate change, (2) the experiences and responses of urban forestry practitioners to climate change, and (3) whether urban forestry practitioners' experience and practice are aligned with the vulnerability assessment. Vulnerabilities of 27 common species were examined based on 2071-2100 regional climate projections. Interviews were then conducted with practitioners working in the public and private sectors. The results suggest that the majority of examined species will be vulnerable to multiple conditions associated with projected climate. Practitioners all perceive recent changes in climate and extreme weather patterns, but do not prioritize future climate conditions in their species selection decisions. Moreover, they expressed uncertainty about how to make species selection decisions in light of climate change. Given the predicted vulnerabilities, alternative species need to be considered or more management resources (e.g., for watering) will be required to maintain the current composition. However, the lack of focus on future conditions by practitioners raises concerns, while also highlighting the need for more information about appropriate management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32079756, year = {2020}, author = {Dean, JF}, title = {Old methane and modern climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {367}, number = {6480}, pages = {846-848}, doi = {10.1126/science.aba8518}, pmid = {32079756}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Methane ; }, }
@article {pmid32079330, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, X}, title = {Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {32079330}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Heat Stress Disorders ; *Heat-Shock Response ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Occupational Exposure ; Pregnancy ; }, abstract = {Heat stress would be intensified under global warming and become a key issue of occupational health for labor force working outdoors. The changes in labor force would affect regional socioeconomic development. So far, changes in labor force due to heat stress are not well documented in China. In this study, heat stress based on wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which combines the thermal effects on the human body of both temperature and humidity, is projected for the near future (2021-2050) and the end of the century (2071-2099). Changes in labor capacity are then estimated for heavy and light work based on the relationships between labor capacity and the WBGT. Low and high emission scenarios, namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, are considered for the future projections in the hottest two months (July and August) in China. Results suggest that the WBGT would increase by more than 3-5 °C by the end of the century. The labor capacity would decrease by more than 40% for both heavy and light work in considerable areas such as South and East China, where there is a large population and developed economy. This indicates that labor force would reduce significantly due to intensified heat stress. This study calls for special attention to the impact of heat stress on occupational health and the labor force in China in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32078825, year = {2020}, author = {Lee, CH and Lin, SH and Kao, CL and Hong, MY and Huang, PC and Shih, CL and Chuang, CC}, title = {Impact of climate change on disaster events in metropolitan cities -trend of disasters reported by Taiwan national medical response and preparedness system.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {183}, number = {}, pages = {109186}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109186}, pmid = {32078825}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Cities ; Civil Defense ; *Climate Change ; *Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; Environmental Health ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Taiwan is geographically located in a zone that is vulnerable to earthquakes, typhoons, floods, and landslide hazards and has experienced various disasters. Six Regional Emergency Medical Operation Centers (REMOCs) are integrated and administered by the Ministry of Health and Welfare (MOHW) to be responsible for emergency situations during disastrous events, such as the emission of chemical toxicants, traffic accidents, industrial materials containment, and typhoons.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To analyze events reported by the six REMOCs during the 2014 to 2018 for the government policy reference.<br><br>METHODS: Data were collected from injured and death toll reports provided by local designated hospitals in the emergency medical reporting system. Disaster events were categorized into three categories: natural disaster (NDs), disasters associated with technology (DTs), and disasters associated with security/violence/others (DSVOs). The three categories were further subdivided into sub-categories. Variables considered for trend analyses included the number of wounded and deaths, event characteristics, date/time, and triage. The frequency of disaster events among the six REMOCs was compared using the chi-square test. We used the global information system (GIS) to describe the distribution of events in Taiwan metropolitan cities. The &#x3b1;-level was set at 0.05.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 580 events during the study period, the distribution of disaster characteristics in the jurisdictions of the six REMOCs were different. The majority of disaster events were DTs (64.5%), followed by NDs (24.5%) and DSVOs (11.0%). Events for the three disaster categories in the six REMOCs were different (&#x3c7;[2]-test, p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001). Furthermore, for the Taipei branch (Northern Taiwan), other NDs, especially heatwaves and cold spells, were most reported in New Taipei City (92.2%) and showed an increasing annual trend; for the Kaohsiung branch (Southern Taiwan), DT events were the most reported, especially in Kaohsiung City; and for the Taichung branch (Central Taiwan), DSVOs were the most reported, especially in Taichung City.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our data revealed that extreme weather precautions reported in the Taipei branch were increasing. Disaster characteristics were different in each metropolitan city. Upgrading the ability to respond to natural disasters is ineluctable.}, }
@article {pmid32078684, year = {2020}, author = {Nachman, G and Skovgård, H}, title = {Modeling the Influence of Ambient Temperature on the Interactions Between the Stable Fly (Diptera: Muscidae) and Its Natural Enemy Spalangia cameroni (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) to Assess Consequences of Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {49}, number = {2}, pages = {342-354}, doi = {10.1093/ee/nvaa008}, pmid = {32078684}, issn = {1938-2936}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; *Hymenoptera ; *Muscidae ; Pupa ; Temperature ; *Wasps ; }, abstract = {A simulation model was used to predict how temperature influences biological control of stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans (L.)) by the pupal parasitoid Spalangia cameroni. Temperature, which was either constant or fluctuated due to seasonal variation and/or environmental stochasticity, was modeled as a first order autocorrelation process. The simulations showed that stable flies could tolerate a wider temperature interval than expected from their thermal performance curve (TPC). This was attributed to the fact that immature flies develop in manure, which protects them against low air temperatures. In contrast, the parasitoids were found to have a narrower thermal tolerance range than expected from their TPC. This was attributed to the temperature-dependent functional response of S. cameroni, which was a limiting factor for the parasitoid's development and survival when host densities were low at suboptimal temperatures. The effects of seasonal variation on critical thermal limits were studied by means of thermal performance diagrams (TPDs). Fluctuating temperatures narrowed the thermal tolerance range of both species. At constant temperatures, the simulations showed that the optimal temperature for using S. cameroni in control of stable flies is ~20°C and that the parasitoid can persist in environments with yearly average temperatures between 18 and 29°C. However, if temperature variation was taken into consideration, it changed both the optimal temperature and the temperature interval at which biological control will be possible. This indicates that climate change causing increasing temperatures compounded with greater fluctuations may have serious consequences for biological control of pests.}, }
@article {pmid32078658, year = {2020}, author = {, }, title = {Correction: Coupling environment and physiology to predict effects of climate change on the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish assemblages in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {e0229679}, pmid = {32078658}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0225128.].}, }
@article {pmid32078610, year = {2020}, author = {Walker, RK and Pereira-Morales, S and Kerr, R and Schenk, E}, title = {Climate Change Should Be on Every Nursing Research Agenda.}, journal = {Oncology nursing forum}, volume = {47}, number = {2}, pages = {135-144}, doi = {10.1188/20.ONF.135-144}, pmid = {32078610}, issn = {1538-0688}, support = {P20 NR016599/NR/NINR NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Nurse's Role ; Nursing Research/*organization &amp; administration ; Oncology Nursing/*organization &amp; administration ; *Research Design ; }, abstract = {Human-caused climate change is a global emergency, and its harms are predicted to increase exponentially in the coming years, particularly if unsustainable practices continue unmitigated. Adverse effects of climate change on communities affected by or at risk for cancer, such as frail older adults, are already measurable and deadly. If nurse scientists continue to ignore these realities, more people are likely to suffer and die as a result. The purpose of this critical reflection is to discuss the vital necessity of including climate change in the research agenda of the Oncology Nursing Society and all nursing science. Using an approach grounded in critical theory and design justice, the authors provide specific suggestions for the incorporation of scientific considerations and nursing measures related to climate change into oncology nursing science.}, }
@article {pmid32077492, year = {2020}, author = {Rauw, WM and Rydhmer, L and Kyriazakis, I and Øverland, M and Gilbert, H and Dekkers, JC and Hermesch, S and Bouquet, A and Gómez Izquierdo, E and Louveau, I and Gomez-Raya, L}, title = {Prospects for sustainability of pig production in relation to climate change and novel feed resources.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {100}, number = {9}, pages = {3575-3586}, pmid = {32077492}, issn = {1097-0010}, support = {SusPig//ERA-NET SusAn/ ; }, mesh = {Animal Feed/*analysis ; *Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Meat/analysis ; Swine/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Pig production systems provide multiple benefits to humans. However, the global increase in meat consumption has profound consequences for our earth. This perspective describes two alternative scenarios for improving the sustainability of future pig production systems. The first scenario is a high input-high output system based on sustainable intensification, maximizing animal protein production efficiency on a limited land surface at the same time as minimizing environmental impacts. The second scenario is a reduced input-reduced output system based on selecting animals that are more robust to climate change and are better adapted to transform low quality feed (local feeds, feedstuff co-products, food waste) into meat. However, in contrast to the first scenario, the latter scenario results in reduced predicted yields, reduced production efficiency and possibly increased costs to the consumer. National evaluation of the availability of local feed and feedstuff co-product alternatives, determination of limits to feed sourced from international markets, available land for crop and livestock production, desired production levels, and a willingness to politically enforce policies through subsidies and/or penalties are some of the considerations to combine these two scenarios. Given future novel sustainable alternatives to livestock animal protein, it may become reasonable to move towards an added general premium price on 'protein from livestock animals' to the benefit of promoting higher incomes to farmers at the same time as covering the extra costs of, politically enforced, welfare of livestock animals in sustainable production systems. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid32076517, year = {2020}, author = {Huang, J and Hao, H}, title = {Effects of climate change and crop planting structure on the abundance of cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {1324-1338}, pmid = {32076517}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The interactions between plants and insects play an important role in ecosystems. Climate change and cropping patterns can affect herbivorous pest insect dynamics. Understanding the reasons for population fluctuations can help improve integrated pest management strategies. Here, a 25-year dataset on climate, cropping planting structure, and the population dynamics of cotton bollworms (Helicoverpa armigera) from Bachu County, south Xinjiang, China, was analyzed to assess the effects of changes in climate and crop planting structure on the population dynamics of H. armigera. The three generations of H. armigera showed increasing trends in population size with climate warming, especially in the third generation. The relative abundances of the first and second generations decreased, but that of the third generation increased. Rising temperature and precipitation produced different impacts on the development of different generations. The population numbers of H. armigera increased with the increase in the non-Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton-planted area. Asynchrony of abrupt changes existed among climate change, crop flowering dates, and the phenology of H. armigera moths. The asynchronous responses in crop flowering dates and phenology of H. armigera to climate warming would expand in the future. The primary factors affecting the first, second, and third generations of moths were T mean in June, the last appearance date of the second generation of moths, and the duration of the third generation of moths, respectively. To reduce the harm to crops caused by H. armigera, Bt cotton should be widely planted.}, }
@article {pmid32076508, year = {2020}, author = {Mainali, K and Shrestha, BB and Sharma, RK and Adhikari, A and Gurarie, E and Singer, M and Parmesan, C}, title = {Contrasting responses to climate change at Himalayan treelines revealed by population demographics of two dominant species.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {1209-1222}, pmid = {32076508}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Alpine treelines are expected to shift upward due to recent climate change. However, interpretation of changes in montane systems has been problematic because effects of climate change are frequently confounded with those of land use changes. The eastern Himalaya, particularly Langtang National Park, Central Nepal, has been relatively undisturbed for centuries and thus presents an opportunity for studying climate change impacts on alpine treeline uncontaminated by potential confounding factors.We studied two dominant species, Abies spectabilis (AS) and Rhododendron campanulatum (RC), above and below the treeline on two mountains. We constructed 13 transects, each spanning up to 400 m in elevation, in which we recorded height and state (dead or alive) of all trees, as well as slope, aspect, canopy density, and measures of anthropogenic and animal disturbance.All size classes of RC plants had lower mortality above treeline than below it, and young RC plants (<2 m tall) were at higher density above treeline than below. AS shows little evidence of a position change from the historic treeline, with a sudden extreme drop in density above treeline compared to below. Recruitment, as measured by size-class distribution, was greater above treeline than below for both species but AS is confined to ~25 m above treeline whereas RC is luxuriantly growing up to 200 m above treeline. Synthesis. Evidence suggests that the elevational limits of RC have shifted upward both because (a) young plants above treeline benefited from facilitation of recruitment by surrounding vegetation, allowing upward expansion of recruitment, and (b) temperature amelioration to mature plants increased adult survival. We predict that the current pure stand of RC growing above treeline will be colonized by AS that will, in turn, outshade and eventually relegate RC to be a minor component of the community, as is the current situation below the treeline.}, }
@article {pmid32073716, year = {2020}, author = {Wolski, P and Lobell, D and Stone, D and Pinto, I and Crespo, O and Johnston, P}, title = {On the role of anthropogenic climate change in the emerging food crisis in southern Africa in the 2019-2020 growing season.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {5}, pages = {2729-2730}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15047}, pmid = {32073716}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Africa, Southern ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Seasons ; Water ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change likely influences the beginning of 2020 growing season's water deficit in parts of southern Africa, with severe consequences to food security.}, }
@article {pmid32072712, year = {2020}, author = {Cassandro, M}, title = {Animal breeding and climate change, mitigation and adaptation.}, journal = {Journal of animal breeding and genetics = Zeitschrift fur Tierzuchtung und Zuchtungsbiologie}, volume = {137}, number = {2}, pages = {121-122}, doi = {10.1111/jbg.12469}, pmid = {32072712}, issn = {1439-0388}, mesh = {Animals ; Breeding ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Livestock/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid32072310, year = {2020}, author = {Das Sarkar, S and Sarkar, UK and Lianthuamluaia, L and Ghosh, BD and Roy, K and Mishal, P and Das, BK}, title = {Pattern of the state of eutrophication in the floodplain wetlands of eastern India in context of climate change: a comparative evaluation of 27 wetlands.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {3}, pages = {183}, pmid = {32072310}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {NICRA//Indian Council of Agricultural Research/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Eutrophication ; India ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The floodplain wetlands in different regional settings vary with time and space in terms of function and geomorphological diversity. In recent decades, these eco-sensitive waterbodies have been exposed to a wide range of anthropogenic threats and climatic changes. Therefore, assessment of these ecological and environmental threats is prerequisite to understand the state of ecosystem and to develop a sustainable management strategy for conservation of wetland biodiversity and fisheries enhancement. This paper discusses the region-specific pattern of trophic state index (TSI) of the 27 floodplain wetlands in West Bengal, India. Carlson TSI and Lamparelli TSI methods were used to determine a better approach based on historical and continuous dataset and to delineate the interrelationship among historical climatic variability for sustainable management of the resources. The study revealed that agro-climatic divisions do not unveil any significant impact on the TSI calculated using Carlson TSI as well as Lamparelli TSI method. The TSI scores for the two methods were significantly different (p < 0.01) for different zones based on wetland habitat types. The TSI scores revealed most of the wetlands to be in mesotrophic state. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that TSI scores were having similar pattern of variation with rainfall and water temperature. The present study also conveys fundamental information on ecological status based on the trophic state, which will aid to develop region-specific strategies for sustainable fisheries enhancement.}, }
@article {pmid32072220, year = {2020}, author = {Wu, J}, title = {Risk and Uncertainty of Losing Suitable Habitat Areas Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study for 109 Gymnosperm Species in China.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {65}, number = {4}, pages = {517-533}, pmid = {32072220}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {2012BAC19B06//National Science and Technology Support Program of China/International ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Cycadopsida ; Ecosystem ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Taking 109 gymnosperm species in China as a case, the uncertainty and risk of losing habitat areas of gymnosperm species under future climate conditions were investigated via representative concentration pathways climate change scenarios, fuzzy set classifications and Monte Carlo techniques. Under nonrandom climate change scenarios, the richness of 109 species increased in the partial locations of northwestern and northeastern China and declined in the partial locations of eastern and central and southeastern China; the numbers of species that losing <20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, and over 80% of their current habitat areas were ~33-49, 36-40, 11-24, 7-9, and 2-8, respectively; ~99-105 species occupied over 80% of their total suitable areas and ~4-9 species occupied 60-80% their total suitable areas. Under random climate change scenarios, the number of species that losing various level of the habitat areas declined with enhancing probability; with a probabilities of over 0.6, the numbers of species that losing <20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80% and over 80% of their current habitat areas were ~19-28, 3-19, 0-3, 1-2, and 9-14, respectively, and the numbers of species that occupying ~20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, and over 80% of their total suitable areas were ~9-14, 4-11, 2-6, 1-3, and 34-45, respectively. Approximately 41% of 109 species will face extinction risks from climate change; the losing habitat areas in future climate condition will cause the varying of coniferous forest composition and the losing of ecosystem service related to the species; the uncertainty of losing distribution areas for species should not be ignored.}, }
@article {pmid32071238, year = {2020}, author = {Zappa, G and Ceppi, P and Shepherd, TG}, title = {Time-evolving sea-surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {9}, pages = {4539-4545}, pmid = {32071238}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect precipitation worldwide. The response is commonly described by two timescales linked to different processes: a rapid adjustment to radiative forcing, followed by a slower response to surface warming. However, additional timescales exist in the surface-warming response, tied to the time evolution of the sea-surface-temperature (SST) response. Here, we show that in climate model projections, the rapid adjustment and surface mean warming are insufficient to explain the time evolution of the hydro-climate response in three key Mediterranean-like areas-namely, California, Chile, and the Mediterranean. The time evolution of those responses critically depends on distinct shifts in the regional atmospheric circulation associated with the existence of distinct fast and slow SST warming patterns. As a result, Mediterranean and Chilean drying are in quasiequilibrium with GHG concentrations, meaning that the drying will not continue after GHG concentrations are stabilized, whereas California wetting will largely emerge only after GHG concentrations are stabilized. The rapid adjustment contributes to a reduction in precipitation, but has a limited impact on the balance between precipitation and evaporation. In these Mediterranean-like regions, future hydro-climate-related impacts will be substantially modulated by the time evolution of the pattern of SST warming that is realized in the real world.}, }
@article {pmid32069750, year = {2020}, author = {Linares, C and Díaz, J and Negev, M and Martínez, GS and Debono, R and Paz, S}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the public health of the Mediterranean Basin population - Current situation, projections, preparedness and adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {182}, number = {}, pages = {109107}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.109107}, pmid = {32069750}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Africa, Northern ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Humans ; Mediterranean Region ; *Public Health ; South Africa ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. In this unique populated region, which is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels particularly between the North (Europe) and South (Africa), parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk - the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks increases significantly. Indeed, climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events (including extreme temperatures and floods), changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, climate change mitigation and adaptation become ever more imperative. It is important that prevention Health Action Plans will be implemented, particularly in those countries that currently have no prevention plans. Most adaptation measures are "win-win situation" from a health perspective, including reducing air pollution or providing shading solutions. Additionally, Mediterranean countries need to enhance cross-border collaboration, as adaptation to many of the health risks requires collaboration across borders and also across the different parts of the basin.}, }
@article {pmid32069704, year = {2020}, author = {Li, Z and Li, Q and Wang, J and Feng, Y and Shao, Q}, title = {Impacts of projected climate change on runoff in upper reach of Heihe River basin using climate elasticity method and GCMs.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {716}, number = {}, pages = {137072}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137072}, pmid = {32069704}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding the impacts of climate change on runoff is of great importance for water resource assessments and adaptation strategy developments especially for the areas where scare and unevenly distributed water are available. Compared to the hydrological modelling method, the climate elasticity method is more flexible with the advantage of using few data in addressing the issue of investigating the effects of climate change on runoff. This study employed Budyko-based climate elasticity method, combined with temperature-based Blaney-Criddle equation, to obtain the elasticities of runoff to two major climate variables, and then applied this methodology to the upper reach of Heihe River basin, China. The runoff elasticity to precipitation in the study area was estimated to be 0.56-0.57, and the elasticity to temperature was -0.017 to -0.018. Precipitation increases showed a positive effect to runoff increases, and temperature increases showed a negative effect. Performances of 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were assessed and the best GCMs were selected based on the entropy weighted TOPSIS approach. CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, CCSM4, and CanESM2 were ranked the first three with the best performances in simulating the observed precipitation and temperature over the study area. Climate projections from the above three GCMs showed that precipitation increased by 10% and 12% on average during the two periods of 2021-2050 and 2051-2080, producing 5.6% and 6.7% decreases in the projected long-term runoff compared to those in baseline period (1961-1990). Temperatures were projected to be increased by 2.0 °C and 2.9 °C for the two periods, resulting in the future long-term runoff decreased by nearly 2.0% and 2.9%, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid32069315, year = {2020}, author = {Gottfried, I and Gottfried, T and Lesiński, G and Hebda, G and Ignaczak, M and Wojtaszyn, G and Jurczyszyn, M and Fuszara, M and Fuszara, E and Grzywiński, W and Błachowski, G and Hejduk, J and Jaros, R and Kowalski, M}, title = {Long-term changes in winter abundance of the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus in Poland and the climate change - Are current monitoring schemes still reliable for cryophilic bat species?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {e0227912}, pmid = {32069315}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Chiroptera/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Geography ; Hibernation/physiology ; Poland ; Regression Analysis ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Warmer winters may lead to changes in the hibernation behaviour of bats, such as the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus, which prefers to hibernate at low temperatures. The species is also known for its large annual fluctuations in the number of wintering individuals, so inference about population trends should be based on long-term data. Prior to 2005, analyses indicated stable or even increasing barbastelle population in Poland. We analysed the results of 13 winter bat counts (2005-2017) of the species from 15 of the largest hibernacula, and additional site of 47 small bunkers, in Poland. The total number of wintering individuals remained stable during the study period, because the barbastelle is not a long-distance migrant, this likely reflects the national population trend. On the basis of mean winter air temperatures we divided the country into four thermal regions. Analyses of barbastelle abundance in hibernacula in the four regions revealed a 4.8% annual mean increase in numbers in the coldest region, where mean winter temperatures were below -2°C, annual mean declines of 3.3% and 3.1% in two warmer regions of western Poland, but no trend in the region of intermediate mean winter temperatures of between -1°C and -2°C. Overall, there was a significant, but weak, negative correlation between the abundance of hibernating individuals and the mean winter temperature. On the other hand, the number of individuals hibernating in small bunkers increased, even though the site was located in one of the warm regions. The results indicate a warming climate will likely reduce the use of large, well-insulated winter roosts by species that prefer colder conditions-and that this is already happening. For forest-dwelling bats, such as the barbastelle, for which monitoring schemes are primarily based on winter surveys of large hibernacula, estimations of population trends may consequently become less reliable.}, }
@article {pmid32067351, year = {2020}, author = {Lindberg, RT and Collins, S}, title = {Quality-quantity trade-offs drive functional trait evolution in a model microalgal 'climate change winner'.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {780-790}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13478}, pmid = {32067351}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {University Research Fellowship//Royal Society/ ; //Darwin/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Microalgae ; Phenotype ; Phytoplankton ; }, abstract = {Phytoplankton are the unicellular photosynthetic microbes that form the base of aquatic ecosystems, and their responses to global change will impact everything from food web dynamics to global nutrient cycles. Some taxa respond to environmental change by increasing population growth rates in the short-term and are projected to increase in frequency over decades. To gain insight into how these projected 'climate change winners' evolve, we grew populations of microalgae in ameliorated environments for several hundred generations. Most populations evolved to allocate a smaller proportion of carbon to growth while increasing their ability to tolerate and metabolise reactive oxygen species (ROS). This trade-off drives the evolution of traits that underlie the ecological and biogeochemical roles of phytoplankton. This offers evolutionary and a metabolic frameworks for understanding trait evolution in projected 'climate change winners' and suggests that short-term population booms have the potential to be dampened or reversed when environmental amelioration persists.}, }
@article {pmid32065642, year = {2020}, author = {Ajanovic, S and Valente, M and Varo, R and Bassat, Q}, title = {Climate Change and the Future Health of Children in Low-Income Countries.}, journal = {Journal of tropical pediatrics}, volume = {66}, number = {2}, pages = {111-113}, doi = {10.1093/tropej/fmaa008}, pmid = {32065642}, issn = {1465-3664}, mesh = {Child ; Child Welfare ; *Climate Change ; Global Health ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Poverty ; }, }
@article {pmid32061640, year = {2020}, author = {Servili, A and Canario, AVM and Mouchel, O and Muñoz-Cueto, JA}, title = {Climate change impacts on fish reproduction are mediated at multiple levels of the brain-pituitary-gonad axis.}, journal = {General and comparative endocrinology}, volume = {291}, number = {}, pages = {113439}, doi = {10.1016/j.ygcen.2020.113439}, pmid = {32061640}, issn = {1095-6840}, mesh = {Animals ; Brain/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/*physiology ; Gonads/drug effects/*physiology ; Pituitary Gland/*physiology ; Reproduction/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have generated rapid variations in atmospheric composition which drives major climate changes. Climate change related effects include changes in physico-chemical proprieties of sea and freshwater, such as variations in water temperature, salinity, pH/pCO2 and oxygen content, which can impact fish critical physiological functions including reproduction. In this context, the main aim of the present review is to discuss how climate change related effects (variation in water temperature and salinity, increases in duration and frequency of hypoxia events, water acidification) would impact reproduction by affecting the neuroendocrine axis (brain-pituitary-gonad axis). Variations in temperature and photoperiod regimes are known to strongly affect sex differentiation and the timing and phenology of spawning period in several fish species. Temperature mainly acts at the level of gonad by interfering with steroidogenesis, (notably on gonadal aromatase activity) and gametogenesis. Temperature is also directly involved in the quality of released gametes and embryos development. Changes in salinity or water acidification are especially associated with reduction of sperm quality and reproductive output. Hypoxia events are able to interact with gonad steroidogenesis by acting on the steroids precursor cholesterol availability or directly on aromatase action, with an impact on the quality of gametes and reproductive success. Climate change related effects on water parameters likely influence also the reproductive behavior of fish. Although the precise mechanisms underlying the regulation of these effects are not always understood, in this review we discuss different hypothesis and propose future research perspectives.}, }
@article {pmid32060272, year = {2020}, author = {Stern, PC}, title = {A reexamination on how behavioral interventions can promote household action to limit climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {918}, pmid = {32060272}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Behavior ; *Climate Change ; Household Articles ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32060264, year = {2020}, author = {Nisa, CF and Bélanger, JJ and Schumpe, BM and Faller, DG}, title = {Reply to 'A reexamination on how behavioral interventions can promote household action to limit climate change'.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {919}, pmid = {32060264}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Behavior ; *Climate Change ; Household Articles ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32060183, year = {2020}, author = {Stacy, A and Newbery, SL}, title = {Climate change efforts.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {66}, number = {2}, pages = {89-93}, pmid = {32060183}, issn = {1715-5258}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid32060182, year = {2020}, author = {Hale, I and Hale, D}, title = {Climate change: motive, means, and opportunity.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {66}, number = {2}, pages = {89}, pmid = {32060182}, issn = {1715-5258}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Motivation ; }, }
@article {pmid32059311, year = {2020}, author = {Inaotombi, S and Sarma, D}, title = {Vegetation affects photoprotective pigments and copepod distribution in the Himalayan lakes: Implication for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {716}, number = {}, pages = {137053}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137053}, pmid = {32059311}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Copepoda ; Ecosystem ; *Lakes ; Zooplankton ; }, abstract = {Lakes in the Himalayas host unique biota and biological communities which are highly sensitive to climate change. High penetration of solar UV radiation in clear shallow lake affects the distribution and abundance of the zooplankton communities. Survival of copepods in such habitats often relies on available photoprotective compounds. We estimated species diversity and distribution patterns of copepods with detectable carotenoids in 7 lakes of the central Himalayas along the altitudinal gradients. To determine the factors influencing the accumulation of high-level photoprotective compounds, we analyzed the physicochemical parameters of water and the concentration of Lignin like Compounds (LLCs), Aromaticity (ARO), Humic Compounds (HCs), Degree of Humification (DoH) and percent Total Organic Matter (TOM) in littoral sediments. In the shallow lakes, copepod abundance and diversity correlate with water transparency. Humic compounds (HCs) derived from ligninaceous plants stimulate the accumulation of photoprotective compounds that allow for the domination of diaptomidae. Copepods receive photoprotective compounds from the humic-bounded sediment substrate. The amount of photoprotectants in the aquatic food chain of the central Himalayas is largely influenced by ligninaceous compounds derived from catchment vegetation. In copepods of shallow clear lakes, the remnant of dead trees in the littoral zones helps to minimize hazards caused by exposure effect and climatic stress. The reduction of vegetative covers in the shorelines may alter the community structure of zooplankton, particularly in the upland ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid32057694, year = {2020}, author = {Anderson, R and Bayer, PE and Edwards, D}, title = {Climate change and the need for agricultural adaptation.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {56}, number = {}, pages = {197-202}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2019.12.006}, pmid = {32057694}, issn = {1879-0356}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Food Supply ; }, abstract = {Agriculture and food security are predicted to be significantly impacted by climate change, though the impact will vary by region and by crop. Combined with the increasing global population, there is an urgent need for agriculture to adapt to ensure future food security for this growing population. Adaptation strategies include changing land and cropping practices, the development of improved crop varieties and changing food consumption and waste. Recent advances in genomics and agronomy can help alleviate some of the impacts of climate change on food production; however, given the timeframe for crop improvement, significant investment is required to realise these changes. Ultimately, there is a limit as to how far agriculture can adapt to the changing climate, and a political will to reduce the impact of burning of fossil fuels on the global climate is essential for long term food security.}, }
@article {pmid32057343, year = {2020}, author = {Tester, PA and Litaker, RW and Berdalet, E}, title = {Climate change and harmful benthic microalgae.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {101655}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.101655}, pmid = {32057343}, issn = {1878-1470}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Dinoflagellida ; Harmful Algal Bloom ; Humans ; *Microalgae ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Sea surface temperatures in the world's oceans are projected to warm by 0.4-1.4 °C by mid twenty-first century causing many tropical and sub-tropical harmful dinoflagellate genera like Gambierdiscus, Fukuyoa and Ostreopsis (benthic harmful algal bloom species, BHABs) to exhibit higher growth rates over much of their current geographic range, resulting in higher population densities. The primary exception to this trend will be in the tropics where temperatures exceed species-specific upper thermal tolerances (30-31 °C) beyond which growth slows significantly. As surface waters warm, migration to deeper habitats is expected to provide refuge. Range extensions of several degrees of latitude also are anticipated, but only where species-specific habitat requirements can be met (e.g., temperature, suitable substrate, low turbulence, light, salinity, pH). The current understanding of habitat requirements that determine species distributions are reviewed to provide fuller understanding of how individual species will respond to climate change from the present to 2055 while addressing the paucity of information on environmental factors controlling small-scale distribution in localized habitats. Based on the available information, we hypothesized how complex environmental interactions can influence abundance and potential range extensions of BHAB species in different biogeographic regions and identify sentinel sites appropriate for long-term monitoring programs to detect range extensions and reduce human health risks.}, }
@article {pmid32057341, year = {2020}, author = {Gobler, CJ}, title = {Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms: Insights and perspective.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {101731}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.101731}, pmid = {32057341}, issn = {1878-1470}, mesh = {Aquaculture ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Harmful Algal Bloom ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change is transforming aquatic ecosystems. Coastal waters have experienced progressive warming, acidification, and deoxygenation that will intensify this century. At the same time, there is a scientific consensus that the public health, recreation, tourism, fishery, aquaculture, and ecosystem impacts from harmful algal blooms (HABs) have all increased over the past several decades. The extent to which climate change is intensifying these HABs is not fully clear, but there has been a wealth of research on this topic this century alone. Indeed, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) approved in September 2019 was the first IPCC report to directly link HABs to climate change. In the Summary for Policy Makers, the report made the following declarations with "high confidence": In addition, the report specifically outlines a series of linkages between heat waves and HABs. These statements about HABs and climate change and the high levels of confidence ascribed to them provides clear evidence that the field of HABs and climate change has matured and has, perhaps, reached a first plateau of certainty. While there are well-documented global trends in HABs being promoted by human activity, including climate change, individual events are driven by local, regional, and global drivers, making it critical to carefully evaluate the conditions and responses at appropriate scales. It is within this context that the first Special Issue on Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms is published in Harmful Algae.}, }
@article {pmid32057339, year = {2020}, author = {Trainer, VL and Moore, SK and Hallegraeff, G and Kudela, RM and Clement, A and Mardones, JI and Cochlan, WP}, title = {Pelagic harmful algal blooms and climate change: Lessons from nature's experiments with extremes.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {101591}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.03.009}, pmid = {32057339}, issn = {1878-1470}, mesh = {Chile ; *Climate Change ; *Harmful Algal Bloom ; Humans ; Northwestern United States ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Time series now have sufficient duration to determine harmful algal bloom (HAB) responses to changing climate conditions, including warming, stratification intensity, freshwater inputs and natural patterns of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Against the context of time series, such as those available from phytoplankton monitoring, dinoflagellate cyst records, the Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys, and shellfish toxin records, it is possible to identify extreme events that are significant departures from long-term means. Extreme weather events can mimic future climate conditions and provide a "dress rehearsal" for understanding future frequency, intensity and geographic extent of HABs. Three case studies of extreme HAB events are described in detail to explore the drivers and impacts of these oceanic outliers that may become more common in the future. One example is the chain-forming diatom of the genus Pseudo-nitzschia in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and its response to the 2014-16 northeast Pacific marine heat wave. The other two case studies are pelagic flagellates. Highly potent Alexandrium catenella group 1 dinoflagellate blooms (up to 150 mg/kg PST in mussels; 4 human poisonings) during 2012-17 created havoc for the seafood industry in Tasmania, south-eastern Australia, in a poorly monitored area where such problems were previously unknown. Early evidence suggests that changes in water column stratification during the cold winter-spring season are driving new blooms caused by a previously cryptic species. An expansion of Pseudochattonella cf. verruculosa to the south and A. catenella to the north over the past several years resulted in the convergence of both species to cause the most catastrophic event in the history of the Chilean aquaculture in the austral summer of 2016. Together, these two massive blooms were colloquially known as the "Godzilla-Red tide event", resulting in the largest fish farm mortality ever recorded worldwide, equivalent to an export loss of USD$800 million which when combined with shellfish toxicity, resulted in major social unrest and rioting. Both blooms were linked to the strong El Niño event and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, the latter an indicator of anthropogenic climate change in the southeastern Pacific region. For each of these three examples, representing recent catastrophic events in geographically distinct regions, additional targeted monitoring was employed to improve the understanding of the climate drivers and mechanisms that gave rise to the event and to document the societal response. Scientists must be poised to study future extreme HAB events as these natural experiments provide unique opportunities to define and test multifactorial drivers of blooms.}, }
@article {pmid32057338, year = {2020}, author = {Griffith, AW and Gobler, CJ}, title = {Harmful algal blooms: A climate change co-stressor in marine and freshwater ecosystems.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {101590}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.03.008}, pmid = {32057338}, issn = {1878-1470}, mesh = {Aquatic Organisms ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; *Harmful Algal Bloom ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Marine and freshwater ecosystems are warming, acidifying, and deoxygenating as a consequence of climate change. In parallel, the impacts of harmful algal blooms (HABs) on these ecosystems are intensifying. Many eutrophic habitats that host recurring HABs already experience thermal extremes, low dissolved oxygen, and low pH, making these locations potential sentinel sites for conditions that will become more common in larger-scale systems as climate change accelerates. While studies of the effects of HABs or individual climate change stressors on aquatic organisms have been relatively common, studies assessing their combined impacts have been rare. Those doing so have reported strong species- and strain-specific interactions between HAB species and climate change co-stressors yielding outcomes for aquatic organisms that could not have been predicted based on investigations of these factors individually. This review provides an ecological and physiological framework for considering HABs as a climate change co-stressor and considers the consequences of their combined occurrence for coastal ecosystems. This review also highlights critical gaps in our understanding of HABs as a climate change co-stressor that must be addressed in order to develop management plans that adequately protect fisheries, aquaculture, aquatic ecosystems, and human health. Ultimately, incorporating HAB species into experiments and monitoring programs where the effects of multiple climate change stressors are considered will provide a more ecologically relevant perspective of the structure and function of marine ecosystems in future, climate-altered systems.}, }
@article {pmid32057337, year = {2020}, author = {Hennon, GMM and Dyhrman, ST}, title = {Progress and promise of omics for predicting the impacts of climate change on harmful algal blooms.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {101587}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.03.005}, pmid = {32057337}, issn = {1878-1470}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Genomics ; *Harmful Algal Bloom ; Proteomics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to increase the severity and prevalence of harmful algal blooms (HABs). In the past twenty years, omics techniques such as genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics have transformed that data landscape of many fields including the study of HABs. Advances in technology have facilitated the creation of many publicly available omics datasets that are complementary and shed new light on the mechanisms of HAB formation and toxin production. Genomics have been used to reveal differences in toxicity and nutritional requirements, while transcriptomics and proteomics have been used to explore HAB species responses to environmental stressors, and metabolomics can reveal mechanisms of allelopathy and toxicity. In this review, we explore how omics data may be leveraged to improve predictions of how climate change will impact HAB dynamics. We also highlight important gaps in our knowledge of HAB prediction, which include swimming behaviors, microbial interactions and evolution that can be addressed by future studies with omics tools. Lastly, we discuss approaches to incorporate current omics datasets into predictive numerical models that may enhance HAB prediction in a changing world. With the ever-increasing omics databases, leveraging these data for understanding climate-driven HAB dynamics will be increasingly powerful.}, }
@article {pmid32057336, year = {2020}, author = {Glibert, PM}, title = {Harmful algae at the complex nexus of eutrophication and climate change.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {101583}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2019.03.001}, pmid = {32057336}, issn = {1878-1470}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Eutrophication ; North America ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Climate projections suggest-with substantial certainty-that global warming >1.5 °C will occur by mid-century (2050). Population is also projected to increase, amplifying the demands for food, fuel, water and sanitation, which, in turn, escalate nutrient pollution. Global projections of nutrient pollution, however, are less certain than those of climate as there are regionally decreasing trends projected in Europe, and stabilization of nutrient use in North America and Australia. In this review of the effects of eutrophication and climate on harmful algae, some of the complex, subtle, and non-intuitive effects and interactions on the physiology of both harmful and non-harmful taxa are emphasized. In a future ocean, non-harmful diatoms may be disproportionately stressed and mixotrophs advantaged due to changing nutrient stoichiometry and forms of nutrients, temperature, stratification and oceanic pH. Modeling is advancing, but there is much yet to be understood, in terms of physiology, biogeochemistry and trophodynamics and how both harmful and nonharmful taxa may change in an uncertain future driven by anthropogenic activities.}, }
@article {pmid32056705, year = {2020}, author = {Montánchez, I and Kaberdin, VR}, title = {Vibrio harveyi: A brief survey of general characteristics and recent epidemiological traits associated with climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {154}, number = {}, pages = {104850}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.104850}, pmid = {32056705}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Vibrio/pathogenicity/physiology ; Virulence ; }, abstract = {Here we briefly review the major characteristics of the emerging pathogen Vibrio harveyi and discuss survival strategies and adaptation mechanisms underlying the capacity of this marine bacterium to thrive in natural and artificial aquatic settings. Recent studies suggest that some adaptation mechanisms can easily be acquired by V. harveyi and other members of the Vibrionaceae family owing to efficient horizontal gene transfer and elevated mutation rate. While discussing the main factors in charge of the expansion of Vibrio spp. habitats and concomitant spread of Vibrio-associated diseases under climate change, this review highlights the need for future studies able to address the joint impact of environmental and anthropogenic factors on the long-term dynamics and virulence of V. harveyi populations at the global scale.}, }
@article {pmid32055915, year = {2020}, author = {Hishe, H and Giday, K and Soromessa, T and Van Orshoven, J and Muys, B and Barati, AA and Moghaddam, SM and Ozuyar, PG and Azadi, H}, title = {Should we Leave Nature Unattended or Assist through Enrichment to Foster Climate Change Mitigation? Exclosure Management in the Highlands of Ethiopia.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {65}, number = {4}, pages = {490-499}, pmid = {32055915}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Ethiopia ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {In order to foster the potential of exclosures to sequester carbon, it is understood that they are increasingly assisted through enrichment planting. To study the impact of the enrichment planting on carbon sequestration process, five exclosures with enrichment planting and five pure naturally regenerated exclosures were selected. Along parallel transects, 20 × 20 m plots were laid at 100 m intervals where all woody vegetations were counted and measured for their diameter and total height. For soil sampling, five subplots at the center and four at each corner of the plots were established. The samples were collected at a depth of 0-0.2 m, and this procedure was repeated for each plot. In this case, when good management practices were implemented (such as Wukro exclosures), significant differences in organic soil carbon above the ground and the total carbon between naturally regenerated and enriched exclosures (P < 0.05) were found. The mean estimates of the above ground carbon, soil carbon, and total carbon were respectively 8.08, 31.04, and 39.12 ton/ha for natural regeneration vs. 7.94, 31.00, and 38.93 ton/ha for enriched regeneration. Lower altitudes had significantly higher soil organic carbon (P < 0.05) than the higher altitudes. However, the slope had an insignificant effect on carbon distribution. Enriched exclosures performed more poorly in carbon sequestration. This was possibly due to the disturbances caused by mass plantation and poor post plantation follow up, since improved performance (P < 0.05) was seen in one enriched exclosure with better management practices.}, }
@article {pmid32055428, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {Climate Change: Impact on Livestock and How Can We Adapt.}, journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {NP}, doi = {10.1093/af/vfz022}, pmid = {32055428}, issn = {2160-6064}, }
@article {pmid32055407, year = {2020}, author = {Waldvogel, AM and Feldmeyer, B and Rolshausen, G and Exposito-Alonso, M and Rellstab, C and Kofler, R and Mock, T and Schmid, K and Schmitt, I and Bataillon, T and Savolainen, O and Bergland, A and Flatt, T and Guillaume, F and Pfenninger, M}, title = {Evolutionary genomics can improve prediction of species' responses to climate change.}, journal = {Evolution letters}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {4-18}, pmid = {32055407}, issn = {2056-3744}, abstract = {Global climate change (GCC) increasingly threatens biodiversity through the loss of species, and the transformation of entire ecosystems. Many species are challenged by the pace of GCC because they might not be able to respond fast enough to changing biotic and abiotic conditions. Species can respond either by shifting their range, or by persisting in their local habitat. If populations persist, they can tolerate climatic changes through phenotypic plasticity, or genetically adapt to changing conditions depending on their genetic variability and census population size to allow for de novo mutations. Otherwise, populations will experience demographic collapses and species may go extinct. Current approaches to predicting species responses to GCC begin to combine ecological and evolutionary information for species distribution modelling. Including an evolutionary dimension will substantially improve species distribution projections which have not accounted for key processes such as dispersal, adaptive genetic change, demography, or species interactions. However, eco-evolutionary models require new data and methods for the estimation of a species' adaptive potential, which have so far only been available for a small number of model species. To represent global biodiversity, we need to devise large-scale data collection strategies to define the ecology and evolutionary potential of a broad range of species, especially of keystone species of ecosystems. We also need standardized and replicable modelling approaches that integrate these new data to account for eco-evolutionary processes when predicting the impact of GCC on species' survival. Here, we discuss different genomic approaches that can be used to investigate and predict species responses to GCC. This can serve as guidance for researchers looking for the appropriate experimental setup for their particular system. We furthermore highlight future directions for moving forward in the field and allocating available resources more effectively, to implement mitigation measures before species go extinct and ecosystems lose important functions.}, }
@article {pmid32055100, year = {2020}, author = {Fant, C and Boehlert, B and Strzepek, K and Larsen, P and White, A and Gulati, S and Li, Y and Martinich, J}, title = {Climate change impacts and costs to U.S. electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure.}, journal = {Energy (Oxford, England)}, volume = {195}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {32055100}, issn = {0360-5442}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure of the U.S. In particular, the model identifies changes in performance and longevity of physical infrastructure such as power poles and transformers, and quantifies these impacts in economic terms. This analysis was evaluated for the contiguous U.S, using five general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to analyze changes in damage and cost from the baseline period to the end of the century with three different adaptation strategies. Total infrastructure costs were found to rise considerably, with annual climate change expenditures increasing by as much as 25%. The results demonstrate that climate impacts will likely be substantial, though this analysis only captures a portion of the total potential impacts. A proactive adaptation strategy resulted in the expected costs of climate change being reduced by as much as 50% by 2090, compared to a scenario without adaptation. Impacts vary across the contiguous U.S. with the highest impacts in parts of the Southeast and Northwest. Improvements and extensions to this analysis would help better inform climate resiliency policies and utility-level planning for the future.}, }
@article {pmid32055048, year = {2020}, author = {Jia, P and Wang, T and van Vliet, AJH and Skidmore, AK and van Aalst, M}, title = {Worsening of tree-related public health issues under climate change.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {48}, pmid = {32055048}, issn = {2055-0278}, support = {SKLURE2018-2-5//State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology (SKLURE)/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Humans ; *Moths ; Population Dynamics ; *Public Health ; Trees/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid32053591, year = {2020}, author = {Sultana, S and Baumgartner, JB and Dominiak, BC and Royer, JE and Beaumont, LJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {e0213820}, pmid = {32053591}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/*methods ; Geography ; Horticulture/methods ; *Models, Statistical ; Pest Control/methods ; Seasons ; Spatial Analysis ; Temperature ; *Tephritidae ; }, abstract = {Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests posing risks to Australia's multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern in Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilonis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoni and Zeugodacus cucumis), while B. frauenfeldi and Ceratitis capitata are introduced. To varying degrees these species are costly to Australia's horticulture through in-farm management, monitoring to demonstrate pest freedom, quarantine and trade restrictions, and crop losses. Here, we used a common species distribution model, Maxent, to assess climate suitability for these 11 species under baseline (1960-1990) and future climate scenarios for Australia. Projections indicate that the Wet Tropics is likely to be vulnerable to all 11 species until at least 2070, with the east coast of Australia also likely to remain vulnerable to multiple species. While the Cape York Peninsula and Northern Territory are projected to have suitable climate for numerous species, extrapolation to novel climates in these areas decreases confidence in model projections. The climate suitability of major horticulture areas currently in eastern Queensland, southern-central New South Wales and southern Victoria to these pests may increase as climate changes. By highlighting areas at risk of pest range expansion in the future our study may guide Australia's horticulture industry in developing effective monitoring and management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid32052555, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, H and Liu, H and Cao, G and Ma, Z and Li, Y and Zhang, F and Zhao, X and Zhao, X and Jiang, L and Sanders, NJ and Classen, AT and He, JS}, title = {Alpine grassland plants grow earlier and faster but biomass remains unchanged over 35 years of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {23}, number = {4}, pages = {701-710}, pmid = {32052555}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {//research grants from Lanzhou University/ ; lzujbky-2019-76//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; DEB-1856318 and CBET-1833988//the National Science Foundation of USA to LJ/ ; //a Semper Ardens grant from the Carlsbergfondet to NJS/ ; 31630009; 31901145//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Grassland ; Plant Development ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Satellite data indicate significant advancement in alpine spring phenology over decades of climate warming, but corresponding field evidence is scarce. It is also unknown whether this advancement results from an earlier shift of phenological events, or enhancement of plant growth under unchanged phenological pattern. By analyzing a 35-year dataset of seasonal biomass dynamics of a Tibetan alpine grassland, we show that climate change promoted both earlier phenology and faster growth, without changing annual biomass production. Biomass production increased in spring due to a warming-induced earlier onset of plant growth, but decreased in autumn due mainly to increased water stress. Plants grew faster but the fast-growing period shortened during the mid-growing season. These findings provide the first in situ evidence of long-term changes in growth patterns in alpine grassland plant communities, and suggest that earlier phenology and faster growth will jointly contribute to plant growth in a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid32050393, year = {2020}, author = {Jarsjö, J and Andersson-Sköld, Y and Fröberg, M and Pietroń, J and Borgström, R and Löv, &#xc5; and Kleja, DB}, title = {Projecting impacts of climate change on metal mobilization at contaminated sites: Controls by the groundwater level.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {712}, number = {}, pages = {135560}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135560}, pmid = {32050393}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Heavy metal and metalloid contamination of topsoils from atmospheric deposition and release from landfills, agriculture, and industries is a widespread problem that is estimated to affect >50% of the EU's land surface. Influx of contaminants from soil to groundwater and their further downstream spread and impact on drinking water quality constitute a main exposure risk to humans. There is increasing concern that the present contaminant loading of groundwater and surface water systems may be altered, and potentially aggravated, by ongoing climate change, through large-scale impacts on recharge and groundwater levels. We investigated this issue by performing hydrogeological-geochemical model projections of changes in metal(loid) (As and Pb) mobilization in response to possible (climate-driven) future shifts in groundwater level and fluctuation amplitudes. We used observed initial conditions and boundary conditions for contaminated soils in the temperate climate zone. The results showed that relatively modest increases (0.2 m) in average levels of shallow groundwater systems, which may occur in Northern Europe within the coming two decades, can increase mass flows of metals through groundwater by a factor of 2-10. There is a similar risk of increased metal mobilization in regions subject to increased (seasonal or event-scale) amplitude of groundwater levels fluctuations. Neglecting groundwater level dynamics in predictive models can thus lead to considerable and systematic underestimation of metal mobilization and future changes. More generally, our results suggest that the key to quantifying impacts of climate change on metal mobilization is to understand how the contact between groundwater and the highly water-conducting and geochemically heterogeneous topsoil layers will change in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32050360, year = {2020}, author = {Lengyel, E and Lázár, D and Trájer, AJ and Stenger-Kovács, C}, title = {Climate change projections for Carpathian soda pans on the basis of photosynthesis evidence from typical diatom species.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {710}, number = {}, pages = {136241}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136241}, pmid = {32050360}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Diatoms ; Hydrology ; Photosynthesis ; }, abstract = {The Carpathian Basin is home to a number of astatic soda pans which are especially vulnerable to the climate change due to their high degree of hydrological sensitivity. The photosynthetic plasticity of the three most dominant benthic diatom species (Nitzschia aurariae, N. reskovii, N. supralitorea) in a number of soda pans was measured, along with sulphate and chloride ion content; conductivity and temperature gradients were also recorded. On the basis of the maximal photosynthetic activity (Ps), climate models were employed to observe and predict the effects of climate change on photosynthesis over three time-spans: past (1970-2000), recent past (2005-2015) and projected future (2041-2060). Comparing the periods, it becomes apparent that climate change has a significant effect on photosynthesis and the photosynthetically active period of the Nitzschia species, the dominant primary producers in soda pans, by enhancing their photosynthetic activity and extending their vegetation period by two months. Due to the breadth of their ecological niche, the competitive advantages of the diatom species studied in the course of this research as against others are expected to prevail under the conditions predicted by the climate scenario presented here.}, }
@article {pmid32048375, year = {2021}, author = {Beaudry, E and McKay, FH and Haines, BC}, title = {How are Victorian Local Governments' responding to climate change and food insecurity?.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {137-144}, doi = {10.1002/hpja.330}, pmid = {32048375}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Food Insecurity ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; *Local Government ; Victoria ; }, abstract = {ISSUE ADDRESSED: Climate change is one of the greatest challenges to public health and well-being. Steps taken by governments now will have a significant effect on public health outcomes, including the food system and food security.<br><br>METHOD: This study reviewed municipal public health and well-being plans from 79 local government areas (LGAs) in Victoria, Australia. Documents were included if they explicitly mentioned climate change and food insecurity. Of the 79 LGAs, 13 met the selection criteria and a content and framing analysis was conducted to identify the level of recognition of climate change on food security and proposed mitigation actions and strategies.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 13 LGAs, the documents of six were identified as having a high level of responsiveness to climate change and food insecurity, five were assessed as medium and two low. Framing analysis identified council acknowledgment of how climate change effects food access through availability and price, and growing food locally and sustainably is seen as a common action to improve food security.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest that planning for climate change and food insecurity is not a high priority for Victorian LGAs. Given the current political climate in Australia, where many in federal government continue to deny the existence of climate change or are reluctant to implement mitigation strategies, it is now and will be increasingly important into the future that local governments plan for the impact of climate change on food insecurity. SO WHAT?: Climate change will impact how people access food and what foods are available to them. Unless all levels of government start to address and plan for climate change, the impact on communities will continue to intensify and grow more costly and damaging.}, }
@article {pmid32046614, year = {2020}, author = {Huber, I and Potapova, K and Ammosova, E and Beyer, W and Blagodatskiy, S and Desyatkin, R and Hoelzle, LE and Ignateva, M and Kokolova, L and Lemke, S and Neustroev, M and Nyukkanov, A and Protodyakonova, G and Reshetnikov, A and Romig, T and Shadrin, V and Samoilova, I and Semenov, S and Stepanov, K and Tarabukina, N and Vinokurova, L and Zakharova, R and Nifontov, K}, title = {Symposium report: emerging threats for human health - impact of socioeconomic and climate change on zooanthroponosis in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russia.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {79}, number = {1}, pages = {1715698}, pmid = {32046614}, issn = {2242-3982}, mesh = {Animals ; *Animals, Wild ; Arctic Regions/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Environmental Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Russia/epidemiology ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Population growth, socio-cultural and economic changes as well as technological progress have an immediate impact on the environment and human health in particular. Our steadily rising needs of resources increase the pressure on the environment and narrow down untainted habitats for plants and wild animals. Balance and resilience of ecosystems are further threatened by climate change, as temperature and seasonal shifts increase the pressure for all species to find successful survival strategies. Arctic and subarctic regions are especially vulnerable to climate change, as thawing of permafrost significantly transforms soil structures, vegetation and habitats. With rising temperature, the risk of zoonotic diseases in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) has also increased. As vegetation periods prolong and habitats broaden, zoonotic pathogens and their vectors find more favourable living conditions. Moreover, permafrost degradation may expose historic burial grounds and allow for reviving the vectors of deadly infections from the past. To assess the current state of knowledge and emerging risks in the light of the "One Health" concept, a German-Russian Symposium took place on 13 August 2018 in Yakutsk, Russian Federation. This symposium report presents the main findings generated from presentations and discussions.}, }
@article {pmid32045029, year = {2020}, author = {Lloyd, EA and Shepherd, TG}, title = {Environmental catastrophes, climate change, and attribution.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1469}, number = {1}, pages = {105-124}, pmid = {32045029}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; }, abstract = {In our discussion of environmental and ecological catastrophes or disasters resulting from extreme weather events, we unite disparate literatures, the biological and the physical. Our goal is to tie together biological understandings of extreme environmental events with physical understandings of extreme weather events into joint causal accounts. This requires fine-grained descriptions, in both space and time, of the ecological, evolutionary, and biological moving parts of a system together with fine-grained descriptions, also in both space and time, of the extreme weather events. We find that both the "storyline" approach to extreme event attribution and the probabilistic "risk-based" approach have uses in such descriptions. However, the storyline approach is more readily aligned with the forensic approach to evidence that is prevalent in the ecological literature, which cultivates expert-based rules of thumb, that is, heuristics, and detailed methods for analyzing causes and mechanisms. We introduce below a number of preliminary examples of such studies as instances of what could be pursued in the future in much more detail.}, }
@article {pmid32042980, year = {2020}, author = {Issoufou, AA and Soumana, I and Maman, G and Konate, S and Mahamane, A}, title = {Dynamic relationship of traditional soil restoration practices and climate change adaptation in semi-arid Niger.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {e03265}, pmid = {32042980}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Climate change increases the vulnerability of agrosystems to soil degradation and reduces the effectiveness of traditional soil restoration options. The implementation of some practices need to be readjusted due to steadily increasing temperature and lowering precipitation. For farmers, the best practice found, should have the potential to achieve maximum sustainable levels of soil productivity in the context of climate change. A study was conducted in South-West Niger to investigate the use of the suitable practice, through (i) a meta-analysis of case studies, (ii) using field survey and (iii) by using AquaCrop model. Results showed that the effects of the association zaï + mulch on crop yield was up to 2 times higher than control plots depending on climate projections scenario RCP 8.5 under which carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are projected to reach 936 ppm by 2100. The practice appeared to be an interesting option for enhancing crop productivity in a context of climate change. Concerning its ability, it offers the best prospects to reverse soil degradation in the study area. In addition, the simulation showed that this strategy was suitable for timely sowing and therefore confirmed scholars and farmers views. Furthermore, this practice is relatively more effective compared to the others practices. These results show that association zaï + mulch could be considered as the best practice that can participate to a successful adaptation to reduce risk from climate change at the same time by reducing the vulnerability of farmers in Southwest of Niger for now and even for the future.}, }
@article {pmid32041877, year = {2020}, author = {Román-Palacios, C and Wiens, JJ}, title = {Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {8}, pages = {4211-4217}, pmid = {32041877}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Hot Temperature ; Plant Development ; Plants/classification ; }, abstract = {Climate change may be a major threat to biodiversity in the next 100 years. Although there has been important work on mechanisms of decline in some species, it generally remains unclear which changes in climate actually cause extinctions, and how many species will likely be lost. Here, we identify the specific changes in climate that are associated with the widespread local extinctions that have already occurred. We then use this information to predict the extent of future biodiversity loss and to identify which processes may forestall extinction. We used data from surveys of 538 plant and animal species over time, 44% of which have already had local extinctions at one or more sites. We found that locations with local extinctions had larger and faster changes in hottest yearly temperatures than those without. Surprisingly, sites with local extinctions had significantly smaller changes in mean annual temperatures, despite the widespread use of mean annual temperatures as proxies for overall climate change. Based on their past rates of dispersal, we estimate that 57-70% of these 538 species will not disperse quickly enough to avoid extinction. However, we show that niche shifts appear to be far more important for avoiding extinction than dispersal, although most studies focus only on dispersal. Specifically, considering both dispersal and niche shifts, we project that only 16-30% of these 538 species may go extinct by 2070. Overall, our results help identify the specific climatic changes that cause extinction and the processes that may help species to survive.}, }
@article {pmid32041306, year = {2020}, author = {Ezquer, I and Salameh, I and Colombo, L and Kalaitzis, P}, title = {Plant Cell Walls Tackling Climate Change: Insights into Plant Cell Wall Remodeling, Its Regulation, and Biotechnological Strategies to Improve Crop Adaptations and Photosynthesis in Response to Global Warming.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {32041306}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {Linea2-DBS//Dept. Biosciences-UNIMI/ ; RISE-EXPOSEED//H2020 Marie Sk&#x142;odowska-Curie Actions/ ; }, abstract = {Plant cell wall (CW) is a complex and intricate structure that performs several functions throughout the plant life cycle. The CW of plants is critical to the maintenance of cells' structural integrity by resisting internal hydrostatic pressures, providing flexibility to support cell division and expansion during tissue differentiation, and acting as an environmental barrier that protects the cells in response to abiotic stress. Plant CW, comprised primarily of polysaccharides, represents the largest sink for photosynthetically fixed carbon, both in plants and in the biosphere. The CW structure is highly varied, not only between plant species but also among different organs, tissues, and cell types in the same organism. During the developmental processes, the main CW components, i.e., cellulose, pectins, hemicelluloses, and different types of CW-glycoproteins, interact constantly with each other and with the environment to maintain cell homeostasis. Differentiation processes are altered by positional effect and are also tightly linked to environmental changes, affecting CW both at the molecular and biochemical levels. The negative effect of climate change on the environment is multifaceted, from high temperatures, altered concentrations of greenhouse gases such as increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, soil salinity, and drought, to increasing frequency of extreme weather events taking place concomitantly, therefore, climate change affects crop productivity in multiple ways. Rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is expected to increase photosynthetic rates, especially at high temperatures and under water-limited conditions. This review aims to synthesize current knowledge regarding the effects of climate change on CW biogenesis and modification. We discuss specific cases in crops of interest carrying cell wall modifications that enhance tolerance to climate change-related stresses; from cereals such as rice, wheat, barley, or maize to dicots of interest such as brassica oilseed, cotton, soybean, tomato, or potato. This information could be used for the rational design of genetic engineering traits that aim to increase the stress tolerance in key crops. Future growing conditions expose plants to variable and extreme climate change factors, which negatively impact global agriculture, and therefore further research in this area is critical.}, }
@article {pmid32037991, year = {2020}, author = {Fischer, JW}, title = {Climate change and Canadian emergency medicine: Exploring alternative futures.}, journal = {CJEM}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {137-138}, doi = {10.1017/cem.2019.484}, pmid = {32037991}, issn = {1481-8043}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Emergency Medicine ; Forecasting ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32037696, year = {2020}, author = {Fredston-Hermann, A and Selden, R and Pinsky, M and Gaines, SD and Halpern, BS}, title = {Cold range edges of marine fishes track climate change better than warm edges.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {5}, pages = {2908-2922}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15035}, pmid = {32037696}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {#OCE-1426891//National Science Foundation/International ; #DEB-1616821//National Science Foundation/International ; //Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Ecosystem ; *Fishes ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Species around the world are shifting their ranges in response to climate change. To make robust predictions about climate-related colonizations and extinctions, it is vital to understand the dynamics of range edges. This study is among the first to examine annual dynamics of cold and warm range edges, as most global change studies average observational data over space or over time. We analyzed annual range edge dynamics of marine fishes-both at the individual species level and pooled into cold- and warm-edge assemblages-in a multi-decade time-series of trawl surveys conducted on the Northeast US Shelf during a period of rapid warming. We tested whether cold edges show stronger evidence of climate tracking than warm edges (due to non-climate processes or time lags at the warm edge; the biogeography hypothesis or extinction debt hypothesis), or whether they tracked temperature change equally (due to the influence of habitat suitability; the ecophysiology hypothesis). In addition to exploring correlations with regional temperature change, we calculated species- and assemblage-specific sea bottom and sea surface temperature isotherms and used them to predict range edge position. Cold edges shifted further and tracked sea surface and bottom temperature isotherms to a greater degree than warm edges. Mixed-effects models revealed that for a one-degree latitude shift in isotherm position, cold edges shifted 0.47 degrees of latitude, and warm edges shifted only 0.28 degrees. Our results suggest that cold range edges are tracking climate change better than warm range edges, invalidating the ecophysiology hypothesis. We also found that even among highly mobile marine ectotherms in a global warming hotspot, few species are fully keeping pace with climate.}, }
@article {pmid32037631, year = {2020}, author = {Oyinlola, MA and Reygondeau, G and Wabnitz, CCC and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {2134-2148}, pmid = {32037631}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Nippon Foundation-University of British Columbia, Nereus Program/ ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, abstract = {Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio-economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%-40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the 'no mitigation policy' scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid-21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 ('strong mitigation') and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.}, }
@article {pmid32036529, year = {2020}, author = {Sofuoğlu, E and Ay, A}, title = {The relationship between climate change and political instability: the case of MENA countries (1985:01-2016:12).}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {12}, pages = {14033-14043}, pmid = {32036529}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Africa, Northern ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Middle East ; }, abstract = {The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between climate change and political instability in the MENA region. To this extent, 18 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries are analyzed covering the period 1985:01-2016:12 with monthly data. In econometric analysis, at first cross-sectional dependency analysis is applied, and existence of cross-sectional dependency among countries is found. Therefore, CADF-second generation panel unit root test applied, and finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test that consider the cross-sectional dependency are utilized. For empirical analysis, temperature and precipitation data representing climate change, political instability, and conflict data are employed. According to the findings, there is a causal relationship from climate change to political instability in 16 countries and to conflict in 15 countries. In addition to this, at least one causal relationship is determined from climate change to political instability or conflict in all MENA countries. Therefore, empirical results support the assumption that climate change acts as a threat multiplier in MENA countries since it triggers, accelerates, and deepens the current instabilities.}, }
@article {pmid32034589, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, MF}, title = {Moral extension of the protection motivation theory model to predict climate change mitigation behavioral intentions in Taiwan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {12}, pages = {13714-13725}, pmid = {32034589}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {NSC 100- 2410-H-036-001-MY3//National Science Council/ ; MOST 105-2410-H-036-003-MY3//Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Intention ; Morals ; *Motivation ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {In this study, perceived moral obligations were included in the protection motivation theory (PMT) model to explain people's intentions to participate in climate change mitigation behaviors. Empirical data and structural equation modeling results of a nationwide cross-sectional survey in Taiwan confirmed the higher explanatory power of the moral extension PMT model than that of the original PMT model. As expected, threat and coping appraisal of climate change affect protection motivation. In addition, perceived moral obligation affects protection motivation. This protection motivation enhances the intention to participate in climate change mitigation behaviors. The mediation effect of protection motivation was also verified in the moral extension PMT model. Practical implications and suggestions are proposed for the government and related authorities as well as environmental groups to encourage people to participate in climate change mitigation behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid32033377, year = {2020}, author = {Alonso, L and Renard, F}, title = {A Comparative Study of the Physiological and Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities to Heat Waves of the Population of the Metropolis of Lyon (France) in a Climate Change Context.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {32033377}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Factors ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Cities/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Demography ; Female ; France ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Principal Component Analysis ; Sex Factors ; *Socioeconomic Factors ; Urban Population/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Vulnerable Populations/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves are direct consequences of global climate change with a higher risk for urban populations due to the urban heat island effect. Reducing urban overheating is a priority, as is identifying the most vulnerable people to establish targeted and coordinated public health policies. There are many ways of understanding the concept of vulnerability and multiple definitions and applications exist in the literature. To date, however, nothing has been done on the territory of this study, the metropolis of Lyon (France). The objective is thus to construct two vulnerability indices: physiological, focusing on the organism's capacities to respond to heat waves; and socio-economic, based on the social and economic characteristics and capacities of the community. To this end, two complementary methodologies have been implemented: the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the PCA (Principal Component Analysis) with Varimax rotation, respectively. The results were then spatialized to the smallest demographic census unit in France. The areas highlighted differed due to conceptual and methodological differences: the highest physiological vulnerabilities are in the center while the socio-economic ones are in the eastern periphery of the urban area. The location of these areas will enable prevention campaigns to be carried out, targeted according to the publics concerned.}, }
@article {pmid32032387, year = {2020}, author = {Ainsworth, A and Drake, DR}, title = {Classifying Hawaiian plant species along a habitat generalist-specialist continuum: Implications for species conservation under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {e0228573}, pmid = {32032387}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Endangered Species ; Hawaii ; Poaceae/*physiology ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Plant communities on tropical high islands, such as the Hawaiian Islands, are predicted to experience rapid climate change, resulting in novel climates. If increased temperature and/or drought exceed plant species' current tolerances, species that are unable to adapt or shift ranges risk extinction. By definition, habitat generalists have a wide niche breadth and thrive in a variety of habitats, whereas habitat specialists have a narrow niche breadth, and typically thrive under more specific climatic characteristics (e.g., cold). The objectives of this study were to: (1) classify plant species in the Hawaiian Islands along a habitat generalist-specialist continuum; (2) independently test the validity of species rankings, using environmental and biogeographic ranges; and (3) identify species' life-history traits that predict species location along the continuum. We quantified specialization for 170 plant species using species co-occurrence data from over one thousand plots to rank species' realized habitat niche breadth using the Jaccard index. The distribution of species along this continuum differed by species biogeographic origin, with endemic plant species ranked on the specialist end and non-native plant species ranked on the generalist end. Habitat specialization rankings also differed for four of nine tested variables (while controlling for biogeographic origin): number of habitat moisture types, minimum elevation, number of Hawaiian Islands, and life form. Life form was the only trait tested that differed across the continuum, with woody species ranked as stronger generalists than herbaceous species; this pattern was particularly evident for non-native species. This indirect method of estimating species' potential climatic flexibility uses increasingly available large plant community data sets with output rankings which represent species' realized habitat niches. Identifying species and plant communities that are on the habitat specialist end of the continuum allows for their prioritization in conservation planning, as globally the loss of specialists is an indication of degradation.}, }
@article {pmid32030161, year = {2019}, author = {Roshan, G and Arab, M and Klimenko, V}, title = {Modeling the impact of climate change on energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of buildings in Iran.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health science &amp; engineering}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {889-906}, pmid = {32030161}, issn = {2052-336X}, abstract = {In this study, it has been attempted to quantify model climate change effects of the coming decades on energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions of a dominant building brigade under hot and humid climates on the southern coast of Iran, based on three stations of Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Chabahar. In this research, the Meteonorm and DesignBuilder software have been used for climate and thermal simulation of building. One of the results of this study is the increase in temperature and relative humidity for the coming decades for all three study stations. The findings of this study showed that the average annual temperature for the 2060s compared to the present decade, will increase by 2.82 °C for Bandar Abbas, by 2.79 °C for Bushehr and for Chabahar it will reach 2.14 °C. This increase in temperature has led to an increase in discomfort warmer days and a decrease in discomfort cold days. But given the climatic type of the area, a decrease in the heating energy demand for the coming decades will not have a significant effect on the pattern of energy consumption inside buildings. Because for two stations of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, more than 95% of the energy demand for the 2060s is for cooling energy demand, which is about 80% of energy for Bushehr. In total, due to the increased demand for cooling energy in the coming decades, this will further increase carbon dioxide emissions, which is higher in Chabahar than in other study stations.}, }
@article {pmid32030153, year = {2019}, author = {Salehi, S and Ardalan, A and Ostadtaghizadeh, A and Garmaroudi, G and Zareiyan, A and Rahimiforoushani, A}, title = {Conceptual definition and framework of climate change and dust storm adaptation: a qualitative study.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health science &amp; engineering}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {797-810}, pmid = {32030153}, issn = {2052-336X}, abstract = {Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is a complex, multi-disciplinary, and culture-dependent concept. This study aims to explore a conceptual definition, the subjective framework of CCA including its domains, attributes, and consequences. The approach of qualitative conventional content analysis was considered for the explanation of the subjective concept, and at the same time as the collection process, data analysis was performed using Zhang and Wildemuth's method. The interview method was semi-structured and sampling was targeted and with maximum diversity. The interview was conducted with 22 qualified experts. The accuracy and validity of the data were ensured using Guba and Lincoln scientific accuracy criteria. Six main categories including "sustainability, productivity, stability, empowerment, transformation, and flexibility" were conceptualized in the theme of adaptation characteristics. "Sustainable development, life improvement, response coordination and integration, creativity and innovation, resilience promotion, vulnerability reduction, effective management, and independence" were the main categories in the theme of the adaptation consequences. According to the results, the following conceptual-functional definition can be presented for adaptation to climate change: "CCA refers to the ability of system instability, sustainability, empowerment, productivity, flexibility, and transformation to climate change through the optimal use of resources, resistance, and coping, capacity building and opportunity creation". This definition is conceptual, it means that includes the main features of climate-adaptation and is also functional that is, includes adaptation strategies for climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32029806, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, J and Wang, Z and Tam, CY and Lau, NC and Lau, DD and Mok, HY}, title = {Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and induced storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region using pseudo-global-warming method.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1965}, pmid = {32029806}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {We have investigated changes of western North Pacific land-falling tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics due to warmer climate conditions, using the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) technique. Historical simulations of three intense TCs making landfall in Pearl River Delta (PRD) were first conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The same cases were then re-simulated by superimposing near- (2015-2039) and far- (2075-2099) future temperature and humidity changes onto the background climate; these changes were derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model projections according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Peak intensities of TCs (maximum surface wind in their lifetimes) are expected to increase by ~ (3) 10% in the (near) far future. Further experiments indicate that surface warming alone acts to intensify TCs by enhancing sea surface heat flux, while warmer atmosphere acts in the opposite way by increasing the stability. In the far future, associated storm surges are also estimated to increase by about 8.5%, computed by the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. Combined with sea level rise and estimated land vertical displacement, TC-induced storm tide affecting PRD will increase by ~1 m in the future 2075-2099 period.}, }
@article {pmid32029628, year = {2020}, author = {Soroye, P and Newbold, T and Kerr, J}, title = {Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {367}, number = {6478}, pages = {685-688}, doi = {10.1126/science.aax8591}, pmid = {32029628}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bees ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Hot Temperature ; North America ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Climate change could increase species' extinction risk as temperatures and precipitation begin to exceed species' historically observed tolerances. Using long-term data for 66 bumble bee species across North America and Europe, we tested whether this mechanism altered likelihoods of bumble bee species' extinction or colonization. Increasing frequency of hotter temperatures predicts species' local extinction risk, chances of colonizing a new area, and changing species richness. Effects are independent of changing land uses. The method developed in this study permits spatially explicit predictions of climate change-related population extinction-colonization dynamics within species that explains observed patterns of geographical range loss and expansion across continents. Increasing frequencies of temperatures that exceed historically observed tolerances help explain widespread bumble bee species decline. This mechanism may also contribute to biodiversity loss more generally.}, }
@article {pmid32029606, year = {2020}, author = {Voosen, P}, title = {Climate change spurs global speedup of ocean currents.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {367}, number = {6478}, pages = {612-613}, doi = {10.1126/science.367.6478.612}, pmid = {32029606}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid32028532, year = {2020}, author = {Applequist, WL and Brinckmann, JA and Cunningham, AB and Hart, RE and Heinrich, M and Katerere, DR and van Andel, T}, title = {Erratum: Scientists' Warning on Climate Change and Medicinal Plants.}, journal = {Planta medica}, volume = {86}, number = {1}, pages = {e1}, doi = {10.1055/a-1113-1659}, pmid = {32028532}, issn = {1439-0221}, }
@article {pmid32028251, year = {2020}, author = {Leandro, J and Chen, KF and Wood, RR and Ludwig, R}, title = {A scalable flood-resilience-index for measuring climate change adaptation: Munich city.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {173}, number = {}, pages = {115502}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2020.115502}, pmid = {32028251}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Floods ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting the frequency and intensity of rainfall extreme events worldwide. Despite the growing global awareness, developing flood resilient cities has proven to be a major challenge. This paper investigates the application of an event-based scalable Flood Resilience Index (FRI) for assessing climate change adaptation. Flood resilience is represented by three dimensions: physical, social and economic. A household climate adaptation is adopted consisting of a combination of a flood-proof gate with an indoor tank and a submersible pump system implemented in all houses. The climate related impact under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) is analysed for Munich with the CRCM5 Large-Ensemble. Results show that for Munich extreme heavy rainfall events are increasing. The FRI can successfully identify households and districts which: a) are mostly affected by heavy rainfall, b) benefit the most from the climate adaptation, and c) are the most resilient. For the most severe future scenario investigated the climate adaptation measure was able to improve 57% of all affected buildings within Maxvorstadt to an FRI equal to 1.0 during the event and recovery phase.}, }
@article {pmid32027429, year = {2020}, author = {Iknayan, KJ and Beissinger, SR}, title = {In transition: Avian biogeographic responses to a century of climate change across desert biomes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, pages = {3268-3284}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15030}, pmid = {32027429}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//National Geographic Society/International ; DEB-1457742//NSF/International ; DEB-1501757//NSF/International ; DGE-1106400//NSF/International ; //U.S. National Park Service/International ; //UC Berkeley's Museum of Vertebrate Zoology/International ; //Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Transition zones between biomes, also known as ecotones, are areas of pronounced ecological change. They are primarily maintained by abiotic factors and disturbance regimes that could hinder or promote species range shifts in response to climate change. We evaluated how climate change has affected metacommunity dynamics in two adjacent biomes and across their ecotone by resurveying 106 sites that were originally surveyed for avian diversity in the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. The Mojave, a warm desert, and the Great Basin, a cold desert, have distinct assemblages and meet along a contiguous, east-west boundary. Both deserts substantially warmed over the past century, but the Mojave dried while the Great Basin became wetter. We examined whether the distinctiveness and composition of desert avifaunas have changed, if species distributions shifted, and how the transition zone impacted turnover patterns. Avifauna change was characterized by (a) reduced occupancy, range contractions, and idiosyncratic species redistributions; (b) degradation of historic community structure, and increased taxonomic and climatic differentiation of the species inhabiting the two deserts; and (c) high levels of turnover at the transition zone but little range expansion of species from the warm, dry Mojave into the cooler, wetter Great Basin. Although both deserts now support more drier and warmer tolerant species, their bird communities still occupy distinct climatological space and differ significantly in climatic composition. Our results suggest a persistent transition zone between biomes contributes to limiting the redistribution of birds, and highlight the importance of understanding how transition zone dynamics impact responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid32023669, year = {2020}, author = {Chae, SM and Kim, D}, title = {Research Trends in Agenda-setting for Climate Change Adaptation Policy in the Public Health Sector in Korea.}, journal = {Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, pages = {3-14}, pmid = {32023669}, issn = {2233-4521}, support = {//Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs/ ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Public Health/methods ; Public Health Practice ; Republic of Korea ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Many studies have been conducted to assess the health effects of climate change in Korea. However, there has been a lack of consideration regarding how the results of these studies can be applied to relevant policies. The current study aims to examine research trends at the agenda-setting stage and to review future ways in which health-related adaptation to climate change can be addressed within national public health policy. A systematic review of previous studies of the health effects of climate change in Korea was conducted. Many studies have evaluated the effect of ambient temperature on health. A large number of studies have examined the effects on deaths and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, but a limitation of these studies is that it is difficult to apply their findings to climate change adaptation policy in the health sector. Many infectious disease studies were also identified, but these mainly focused on malaria. Regarding climate change-related factors other than ambient temperature, studies of the health effects of these factors (with the exception of air pollution) are limited. In Korea, it can be concluded that studies conducted as part of the agenda-setting stage are insufficient, both because studies on the health effects of climate change have not ventured beyond defining the problem and because health adaptation to climate change has not been set as an important agenda item. In the future, the sharing and development of relevant databases is necessary. In addition, the priority of agenda items should be determined as part of a government initiative.}, }
@article {pmid32023668, year = {2020}, author = {Kwon, HJ}, title = {Climate Change and Health: More Research Is Still Needed.}, journal = {Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, pmid = {32023668}, issn = {2233-4521}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Republic of Korea ; }, }
@article {pmid32021924, year = {2020}, author = {Cabrera, CVP and Selvaraj, JJ}, title = {Corrigendum to "Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia" [Heliyon Volume 6, Issue 1, January 2020, e03101].}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {e03203}, doi = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03203}, pmid = {32021924}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e03101.].}, }
@article {pmid32018975, year = {2020}, author = {Lababpour, A}, title = {The response of dust emission sources to climate change: Current and future simulation for southwest of Iran.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {714}, number = {}, pages = {136821}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136821}, pmid = {32018975}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study recognizes present dust emission sources (DESs) and their future projections in the southwest of Iran (2050 and 2070) through simulations performed by distribution models. The sites observation, raster dataset of climate layers and statistical models in the MaxEnt software were used to predict the current and future dust coverage and distribution, and their response to climate change using representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios of +2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W m[-2] projections. Statistical machine learning analysis show that 40.8% of the study area covering 25,810 km[2] are susceptible to emit dust at the present time, and its projections will increase up to 28,839, 26,002, 26,071 and 26,124 km[2] for RCP scenarios of +2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W m[-2], respectively, by the year 2070. Temperature and precipitation assessments show that the most effective parameters determine future changes in DES coverage and distribution. The area under the curve (AUC) for DESs was 0.919, and results of Jackknife analyses show high sensitivity of dust sources to climate variables. The results illustrate that the present DESs are mainly driven by a combination of temperature, precipitation and land-use management, and the effects of nature are comparable to the anthropogenic activities, as humans continue to shape the DESs through energy, water and land use. The predicted increase of DESs may substantially worsen dust storms in the future, thereby affecting the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health. The outcomes of this study may support biocrust restoration technologies as a suitable option in sustainable management of arid lands and dust emission sources.}, }
@article {pmid32017877, year = {2020}, author = {Prevéy, JS}, title = {Climate Change: Flowering Time May Be Shifting in Surprising Ways.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {R112-R114}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.12.009}, pmid = {32017877}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {A new study examined how flowering phenology has changed over the past three decades along an elevational gradient. These findings indicate that climate change is shifting flowering time in complex ways, even across local spatial gradients.}, }
@article {pmid32017773, year = {2020}, author = {Cordero, EC and Centeno, D and Todd, AM}, title = {The role of climate change education on individual lifetime carbon emissions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {e0206266}, pmid = {32017773}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology/*education ; Humans ; *Social Behavior ; Students/*psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Vehicle Emissions ; }, abstract = {Strategies to mitigate climate change often center on clean technologies, such as electric vehicles and solar panels, while the mitigation potential of a quality educational experience is rarely discussed. In this paper, we investigate the long-term impact that an intensive one-year university course had on individual carbon emissions by surveying students at least five years after having taken the course. A majority of course graduates reported pro-environmental decisions (i.e., type of car to buy, food choices) that they attributed at least in part to experiences gained in the course. Furthermore, our carbon footprint analysis suggests that for the average course graduate, these decisions reduced their individual carbon emissions by 2.86 tons of CO2 per year. Surveys and focus group interviews identify that course graduates have developed a strong personal connection to climate change solutions, and this is realized in their daily behaviors and through their professional careers. The paper discusses in more detail the specific components of the course that are believed to be most impactful, and the uncertainties associated with this type of research design. Our analysis also demonstrates that if similar education programs were applied at scale, the potential reductions in carbon emissions would be of similar magnitude to other large-scale mitigation strategies, such as rooftop solar or electric vehicles.}, }
@article {pmid32017654, year = {2020}, author = {Rudolph, L and Maizlish, N and North, S and Dervin, K}, title = {A Public Health Learning Collaborative on Climate Change for Urban Health Departments, 2016-2018.}, journal = {Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)}, volume = {135}, number = {2}, pages = {189-201}, pmid = {32017654}, issn = {1468-2877}, mesh = {Capacity Building ; *Climate Change ; *Health Equity ; Humans ; Local Government ; Public Health ; Public Health Administration/*methods ; United States ; Urban Population ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The objective of this project was to demonstrate and assess approaches of urban local health departments (LHDs) to simultaneously address climate change, health, and equity; incorporate climate change into program practice; and participate in their jurisdiction's climate change work.<br><br>METHODS: From January 2016 through March 2018, the Center for Climate Change and Health created learning activities, networking and relationship-building opportunities, communication platforms, and information sharing for 12 urban LHDs in the United States. We used administrative data and conducted interviews with participants and key informants to assess success in meeting learning collaborative goals.<br><br>RESULTS: LHDs developed diverse projects that incorporated internal capacity building, climate and health vulnerability assessments, surveillance, and community engagement. Projects fostered greater LHD engagement on climate change, broadened community partnerships, and furthered LHD integration into jurisdictions' climate planning. LHD engagement helped shift the dialogue in the community and jurisdiction about climate change to include public health.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: LHDs have skills and expertise to rapidly partner with other governmental agencies and community-based organizations and to help communities identify vulnerabilities, take action to reduce the health harms of climate change, and-through Health in All Policies approaches and community partnerships-to ensure that climate policies are optimized for positive health and equity outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid32015865, year = {2020}, author = {Sadykova, D and Scott, BE and De Dominicis, M and Wakelin, SL and Wolf, J and Sadykov, A}, title = {Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator-prey population distributions by 2050.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {1069-1086}, pmid = {32015865}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator-prey overlap in 2050 under the "business-as-usual, worst-case" climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth-averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator-prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator-prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator-prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade-offs in decisions involving issues of large-scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and large-scale marine renewable developments.}, }
@article {pmid32015828, year = {2020}, author = {Sloane, JD and Wiles, JR}, title = {Communicating the consensus on climate change to college biology majors: The importance of preaching to the choir.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {594-601}, pmid = {32015828}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {College and university biology majors who are not climate change deniers may yet be unaware of the degree of scientific consensus on climate change and unprepared to communicate about climate science to others. This study reports on a population of climate change accepting biology majors at a large, private research university in the American northeast. Our students tended to greatly underestimate the degree of scientific consensus around climate change, to be only moderately worried about climate change, and to be unconfident in their ability to communicate about the state of the scientific consensus around climate change. After an introduction to the scholarly literature that substantiates and quantifies the scientific consensus on climate change in the context of a course on biological research literature, our students showed significant increases in their estimates of the consensus on climate change, and their estimates were more accurate. Additionally, they became more worried about climate change as well as more confident in their ability to communicate about the scientific consensus to others. These results are in line with the Gateway Belief Model, which positions perception of scientific agreement on climate change as an important driver of acceptance and motivation toward action.}, }
@article {pmid32015519, year = {2020}, author = {Kay, JE}, title = {Early climate models successfully predicted global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {578}, number = {7793}, pages = {45-46}, pmid = {32015519}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; }, }
@article {pmid32015382, year = {2020}, author = {Heikkinen, RK and Leikola, N and Aalto, J and Aapala, K and Kuusela, S and Luoto, M and Virkkala, R}, title = {Fine-grained climate velocities reveal vulnerability of protected areas to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1678}, pmid = {32015382}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change velocity is an increasingly used metric to assess the broad-scale climatic exposure and climate change induced risks to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, the utility of this metric in conservation planning can be enhanced by determining the velocities of multiple climatic drivers in real protected area (PA) networks on ecologically relevant scales. Here we investigate the velocities of three key bioclimatic variables across a nation-wide reserve network, and the consequences of including fine-grained topoclimatic data in velocity assessments. Using 50-m resolution data describing present-day and future topoclimates, we assessed the velocities of growing degree days, the mean January temperature and climatic water balance in the Natura 2000 PA network in Finland. The high-velocity areas for the three climate variables differed drastically, indicating contrasting exposure risks in different PAs. The 50-m resolution climate data revealed more realistic estimates of climate velocities and more overlap between the present-day and future climate spaces in the PAs than the 1-km resolution data. Even so, the current temperature conditions were projected to disappear from almost all the studied PAs by the end of this century. Thus, in PA networks with only moderate topographic variation, far-reaching climate change induced ecological changes may be inevitable.}, }
@article {pmid32013462, year = {2020}, author = {Zheng, Y and Yang, F and Duan, J and Sun, X and Fu, L and Kurths, J}, title = {The maximum likelihood climate change for global warming under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy noise.}, journal = {Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {013132}, doi = {10.1063/1.5129003}, pmid = {32013462}, issn = {1089-7682}, abstract = {An abrupt climatic transition could be triggered by a single extreme event, and an α-stable non-Gaussian Lévy noise is regarded as a type of noise to generate such extreme events. In contrast with the classic Gaussian noise, a comprehensive approach of the most probable transition path for systems under α-stable Lévy noise is still lacking. We develop here a probabilistic framework, based on the nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, to investigate the maximum likelihood climate change for an energy balance system under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy fluctuations. We find that a period of the cold climate state can be interrupted by a sharp shift to the warmer one due to larger noise jumps with low frequency. Additionally, the climate change for warming 1.5[°]C under an enhanced greenhouse effect generates a steplike growth process. These results provide important insights into the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate transitions triggered by a Lévy process.}, }
@article {pmid32009621, year = {2020}, author = {Ludviksdottir, D}, title = {[Climate change and respiratory diseases].}, journal = {Laeknabladid}, volume = {106}, number = {2}, pages = {59}, doi = {10.17992/lbl.2020.02.370}, pmid = {32009621}, issn = {1670-4959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Iceland/epidemiology ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/diagnosis/*epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid32007888, year = {2020}, author = {Kuefner, W and Hofmann, AM and Geist, J and Raeder, U}, title = {Evaluating climate change impacts on mountain lakes by applying the new silicification value to paleolimnological samples.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {715}, number = {}, pages = {136913}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136913}, pmid = {32007888}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The evaluation of climate change impact on lakes typically relies on statistical methods like the reorganisation of organism communities (beta diversity) or transfer functions. A new method uses the silicification of diatoms that correlates with temperature and nutrients. The so-called silicification value (SiVa) overcomes problems of descriptive statistics or absent indicator species. Averaged over diatom communities, it related inversely to lake surface temperatures in mountain lakes. Hence, its change over time (δ SiVa) in a lake was hypothesised to reflect global change-driven lake warming quantitatively, which supposedly climaxes in shallow lakes. Sixteen different δ SiVa calculation approaches were tested. They (1) included or excluded planktic diatoms, (2) integrated fixed or variable time series referring to climate data or changes in diatom assemblages, (3) employed a top-bottom or regression approach and (4) expressed the δ SiVa as relative or absolute values. Subfossil diatom assemblages from 24 sediment cores from Bavarian and north Tyrolian mountain lakes served as sample set. All possible approaches were evaluated for their explanatory power for lake characteristics using GLMs. The top-bottom benthic approach with fixed climate data-based time series appeared to be the best model based on AIC and the extent of variable integration. In line with the hypothesis, the strongest decrease of δ SiVa was evident in most shallow lakes. Segmented regression further highlighted a positive correlation with depth if shallower than 10 m. By referring to the negative SiVa-summer temperature relation, δ SiVa also enabled the quantification of lake warming within the last decades, which ranged mainly between 0.1 °C and 1.1 °C per decade, consistent with existing literature. Additionally, a 100 year temperature reconstruction from a varved sediment core successfully validated the approach. Further studies may focus and extend its application to deeper lakes, but it can already serve as a powerful tool in palaeolimnological studies of shallow lakes like hard-water mountain lakes.}, }
@article {pmid32006117, year = {2020}, author = {Hájková, L and Kožnarová, V and Možný, M and Bartošová, L}, title = {Influence of climate change on flowering season of birch in the Czech Republic.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {5}, pages = {791-801}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01869-1}, pmid = {32006117}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {Program I (NPU I), grant number LO1415//Ministerstvo &#x160;kolstv&#xed;, Ml&#xe1;de&#x17e;e a T&#x11b;lov&#xfd;chovy/ ; Institutional Support Program for Long Term Conceptual Development of Research Institution//Ministerstvo &#x160;kolstv&#xed;, Ml&#xe1;de&#x17e;e a T&#x11b;lov&#xfd;chovy/ ; }, mesh = {*Betula ; *Climate Change ; Czech Republic ; Flowers ; Pollen ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This paper analyzes a long-term (1991-2019) flowering period of birch in the Czech Republic. Temporal and spatial evaluation in timing of beginning and end of flowering (Fbegin and Fend) and flowering period (Fperiod) of Betula pendula were investigated in different zones of the Czech Republic. The field observations were carried out at 44 sites of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute phenological network; the detailed analysis including growing degree days (GDD) evaluation to Fbegin and Fend onsets and time of flowering were made at 9 sites in different altitudes. The trends and Pearson's correlation coefficients between Fbegin (Fend) and GDDs were calculated as well. The timing of both phenological stages showed a significant advance to earlier onsets (e.g., - 7.0 d per decade at Měděnec station) and the time of flowering shortens (e.g., - 3.8 d per decade at Rokytnice station). Nevertheless, the most marked shift was observed for mountain area in the north-western and north-eastern part of the Czech Republic. In contrast, the smallest shift was found in the southern part of the Czech Republic. The shift of the GDD values fluctuates from negative to positive values. Pearson's correlation coefficients calculated for both phenophases and period of flowering of Betula pendula showed the highest values in Fperiod (e.g., 0.846 at Modrava station) and in Fend (e.g., 0.711 at Rokytnice station) as well. Thus, our results indicate due to global warming symptoms that birch pollen allergy may appear earlier in the year but for a shorter period.}, }
@article {pmid32005920, year = {2020}, author = {Fox, L and Stukins, S and Hill, T and Miller, CG}, title = {Quantifying the Effect of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Calcifying Plankton.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1620}, pmid = {32005920}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Widely regarded as an imminent threat to our oceans, ocean acidification has been documented in all oceanic basins. Projected changes in seawater chemistry will have catastrophic biotic effects due to ocean acidification hindering biogenic carbonate production, which will in turn lead to substantial changes in marine ecosystems. However, previous attempts to quantify the effect of acidification on planktonic calcifying organisms has relied on laboratory based studies with substantial methodological limitations. This has been overcome by comparing historic plankton tows from the seminal HMS Challenger Expedition (1872-1876) with the recent Tara Oceans expedition material (2009-2016). Nano CT-scans of selected equatorial Pacific Ocean planktonic foraminifera, have revealed that all modern specimens had up to 76% thinner shells than their historic counterparts. The "Challenger Revisited" project highlights the potential of historic ocean collections as a tool to investigate ocean acidification since the early Industrial Revolution. Further analyses of such biotic archives will enable researchers to quantify the effects of anthropogenic climate change across the globe.}, }
@article {pmid32005319, year = {2020}, author = {Wu, MY and Shu, CC and Lin, HH}, title = {Authors reply to letter to the Editor "Chronic kidney disease, tuberculosis and climate change".}, journal = {The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {133-134}, doi = {10.5588/ijtld.19.0581}, pmid = {32005319}, issn = {1815-7920}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Cohort Studies ; Disease Progression ; Humans ; *Renal Insufficiency, Chronic ; *Tuberculosis ; }, }
@article {pmid32005318, year = {2020}, author = {Harries, AD}, title = {Chronic kidney disease, tuberculosis and climate change.}, journal = {The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {132-133}, doi = {10.5588/ijtld.19.0556}, pmid = {32005318}, issn = {1815-7920}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Cohort Studies ; Humans ; *Renal Insufficiency, Chronic ; *Tuberculosis ; *Tuberculosis, Pulmonary ; }, }
@article {pmid32003808, year = {2020}, author = {Harrison, S and Macmillan, A and Rudd, C}, title = {Framing climate change and health: New Zealand's online news media.}, journal = {Health promotion international}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {1320-1330}, doi = {10.1093/heapro/daz130}, pmid = {32003808}, issn = {1460-2245}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mass Media ; New Zealand ; Public Health ; Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to public health worldwide. Conversely, well-designed action to mitigate climate change offers numerous opportunities to improve health and equity. Despite this, comprehensive climate action has not been forthcoming within New Zealand. The media plays an important role in shaping public opinion and support for policy change. Previous literature has suggested that certain types of framing may be more effective than others at encouraging support for climate action and policy. This includes positive, personally relevant framing, as well as key journalistic tools which appear counter-intuitive, such as an increase in human interest stories and 'sensationalist' framing. We undertook a qualitative thematic analysis of climate change and health media coverage in two online New Zealand news outlets to understand how the issue was framed, and how it may be framed more effectively to encourage climate action. We compared the framing used by journalists in mainstream media outlet the New Zealand Herald Online (NZHO) with that of contributors to independent news repository site Scoop. Content in both outlets emphasized the threat unchecked climate change poses to health, which overshadowed the positive health opportunities of climate action. The NZHO was more prone to negative framing, and more likely to favour stories which could be sensationalized and were international in scope. We considered the possible effectiveness of the framing we found for attracting greater media attention and encouraging support for climate action and policy.}, }
@article {pmid32002323, year = {2020}, author = {Zhuang, Q and Wu, S and Feng, X and Niu, Y}, title = {Analysis and prediction of vegetation dynamics under the background of climate change in Xinjiang, China.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {e8282}, pmid = {32002323}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Vegetation dynamics is defined as a significant indictor in regulating terrestrial carbon balance and climate change, and this issue is important for the evaluation of climate change. Though much work has been done concerning the correlations among vegetation dynamics, precipitation and temperature, the related questions about relationships between vegetation dynamics and other climatic factors (e.g., specific humidity, net radiation, soil moisture) have not been thoroughly considered. Understanding these questions is of primary importance in developing policies to address climate change.<br><br>METHODS: In this study, the least squares regression analysis method was used to simulate the trend of vegetation dynamics based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1981 to 2018. A partial correlation analysis method was used to explore the relationship between vegetation dynamics and climate change; and further,the revised greyscale model was applied to predict the future growth trend of natural vegetation.<br><br>RESULTS: The Mann-Kendall test results showed that th e air temperature rose sharply in 1997 and had been in a state of high fluctuations since then. Strong changes in hydrothermal conditions had major impact on vegetation dynamics in the area. Specifically, the NDVI value of natural vegetation showed an increasing trend from 1981 to 2018, and the same changes occurred in the precipitation. From 1981 to 1997, the values of natural vegetation increased at a rate of 0.0016 per year. From 1999 to 2009, the NDVI value decreased by an average rate of 0.0025 per year. From 2010 to 2018, the values began an increasing trend and reached a peak in 2017, with an average annual rate of 0.0033. The high vegetation dynamics areas were mainly concentrated in the north and south slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, the Ili River Valley and the Altay area. The greyscale prediction results showed that the annual average NDVI values of natural vegetation may present a fluctuating increasing trend. The NDVI value in 2030 is 0.0196 higher than that in 2018, with an increase of 6.18%.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that: (i) the variations of climatic factors have caused a huge change in the hydrothermal conditions in Xinjiang; (ii) the vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang showed obvious volatility, and then in the end stage of the study were higher than the initial stage the vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang showed a staged increasing trend; (iii) the vegetation dynamics were affected by many factors,of which precipitation was the main reason; (iv) in the next decade, the vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang will show an increasing trend.}, }
@article {pmid32002233, year = {2019}, author = {Pasqui, M and Di Giuseppe, E}, title = {Climate change, future warming, and adaptation in Europe.}, journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6-11}, pmid = {32002233}, issn = {2160-6064}, }
@article {pmid32002232, year = {2019}, author = {Bernabucci, U}, title = {Climate change: impact on livestock and how can we adapt.}, journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3-5}, pmid = {32002232}, issn = {2160-6064}, }
@article {pmid32001946, year = {2020}, author = {Block, S and Alexander, JM and Levine, JM}, title = {Phenological plasticity is a poor predictor of subalpine plant population performance following experimental climate change.}, journal = {Oikos (Copenhagen, Denmark)}, volume = {129}, number = {2}, pages = {184-193}, pmid = {32001946}, issn = {0030-1299}, support = {173210/SNSF_/Swiss National Science Foundation/Switzerland ; 678841/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Phenological shifts, changes in the seasonal timing of life cycle events, are among the best documented responses of species to climate change. However, the consequences of these phenological shifts for population dynamics remain unclear. Population growth could be enhanced if species that advance their phenology benefit from longer growing seasons and gain a pre-emptive advantage in resource competition. However, it might also be reduced if phenological advances increase exposure to stresses, such as herbivores and, in colder climates, harsh abiotic conditions early in the growing season. We exposed subalpine grasslands to ~ 3 K of warming by transplanting intact turfs from 2000 m to 1400 m elevation in the eastern Swiss Alps, with turfs transplanted within the 2000 m site acting as a control. In the first growing season after transplantation, we recorded species' flowering phenology at both elevations. We also measured species' cover change for three consecutive years as a measure of plant performance. We used models to estimate species' phenological plasticity (the response of flowering time to the change in climate) and analysed its relationship with cover changes following climate change. The phenological plasticity of the 18 species in our study varied widely but was unrelated to their changes in cover. Moreover, early- and late-flowering species did not differ in their cover response to warming, nor in the relationship between cover changes and phenological plasticity. These results were replicated in a similar transplant experiment within the same subalpine community, established one year earlier and using larger turfs. We discuss the various ecological processes that can be affected by phenological shifts, and argue why the population-level consequences of these shifts are likely to be species- and context-specific. Our results highlight the importance of testing assumptions about how warming-induced changes in phenotypic traits, like phenology, impact population dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid32001223, year = {2020}, author = {Wynkoop, W}, title = {Climate change, air pollution &amp; health.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {131-132}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2019.12.006}, pmid = {32001223}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Lung Diseases/etiology ; Ozone/adverse effects ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid32000327, year = {2020}, author = {Warnatzsch, EA and Reay, DS}, title = {Assessing climate change projections and impacts on Central Malawi's maize yield: The risk of maladaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {711}, number = {}, pages = {134845}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134845}, pmid = {32000327}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Malawi ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Malawi is listed as a Low-Income Food-Deficit Country (LIFDC) by the United Nations (UN), with high levels of poverty, malnutrition, and undernutrition. The maize grown in the Central Region of Malawi represents approximately a quarter of the total Malawian population's calorie intake, is a large source of local income, and a significant contributor to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While maize has been shown to be more resilient to climatic changes than many other grain crops, the predominantly rain-fed maize grown in Central Malawi has experienced many shocks from severe weather events in the past. Using the ensemble mean of 20 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), this study shows that temperatures in Central Malawi are projected to increase from the 1971-2000 baseline by between 1.4 and 1.6 °C by 2035 and 1.9 and 2.5 °C by 2055 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, but precipitation projections are more uncertain. Using the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) AquaCrop model, this study assesses the impact of future warming and three precipitation scenarios on two cultivars of maize planted on three separate dates in Central Malawi's summer planting season. The results indicate that if precipitation levels follow the ensemble average or maximum projection, then moving to a later planting date and a slower-developing cultivar may result in increasing yields compared to the baseline scenario. However, under a minimum precipitation projection, the results are less positive, with decreasing yields seen for both cultivars and all planting dates. The uncertainty around future precipitation therefore poses a significant risk of maladaptation and highlights the need for more robust precipitation projections in the area before climate model outputs are used as a primary driver for decision-making in Central Malawi's maize cultivation.}, }
@article {pmid32000080, year = {2020}, author = {Akamatsu, F and Okuda, M and Fujii, T}, title = {Long-term responses to climate change of the carbon and oxygen stable isotopic compositions and gelatinization temperature of rice.}, journal = {Food chemistry}, volume = {315}, number = {}, pages = {126239}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodchem.2020.126239}, pmid = {32000080}, issn = {1873-7072}, mesh = {Carbon Isotopes/*analysis ; Climate Change ; Gelatin/chemistry ; Japan ; Oryza/*chemistry/*growth &amp; development ; Oxygen Isotopes/*analysis ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The stable isotopic compositions of carbon (δ[13]C) and oxygen (δ[18]O) in rice are often used to confirm its authenticity. The gelatinization temperature is a crucial factor in alcoholic fermentation. However, little is known about the isotopic and thermal responses of rice to climate change. We show that in sake rice grown annually in the same paddy field from 1994 to 2013, the δ[13]C (-27.4‰ to -25.9‰) and δ[18]O values (20.4‰ to 27.0‰) correlated negatively with the mean daily minimum air temperature and precipitation, and positively with the hours of sunshine during grain-filling. In contrast, of the air temperatures tested, the gelatinization temperature of the rice grains (63.2°C to 70.0 °C) correlated positively and most strongly with the mean daily mean air temperature. Thus, we identified the mean daily minimum temperature during grain-filling, a nocturnal temperature, as a major factor affecting the isotopic and thermal variations in rice grains.}, }
@article {pmid32000001, year = {2020}, author = {Shrestha, S and Neupane, S and Mohanasundaram, S and Pandey, VP}, title = {Mapping groundwater resiliency under climate change scenarios: A case study of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {183}, number = {}, pages = {109149}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109149}, pmid = {32000001}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Groundwater ; Hydrology ; Nepal ; }, abstract = {Groundwater resources of Kathmandu Valley in Nepal are under immense pressure from multiple stresses, including climate change. Due to over-extraction, groundwater resources are depleting, leading to social, environmental and economic problems. Climate change might add additional pressure by altering groundwater recharge rates and availability of groundwater. Mapping groundwater resilience to climate change can aid in understanding the dynamics of groundwater systems, facilitating the development of strategies for sustainable groundwater management. Therefore, this study aims to analyse the impact of climate change on groundwater resources and mapping the groundwater resiliency of Kathmandu Valley under different climate change scenarios. The future climate projected using the climate data of RCM's namely ACCESS-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM for three future periods: near future (2010-2039), mid future (2040-2069) and far future (2070-2099) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were bias corrected and fed into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a hydrological model, to estimate future groundwater recharge. The results showed a decrease in groundwater recharge in future ranging from 3.3 to 50.7 mm/yr under RCP 4.5 and 19-102.1 mm/yr under RCP 8.5 scenario. The GMS-MODFLOW model was employed to estimate the future groundwater level of Kathmandu Valley. The model revealed that the groundwater level is expected to decrease in future. Based on the results, a groundwater resiliency map of Kathmandu Valley was developed. The results suggest that groundwater in the northern and southern area of the valley are highly resilient to climate change compared to the central area. The results will be very useful in the formulation and implementation of adaptation strategies to offset the negative impacts of climate change on the groundwater resources of Kathmandu Valley.}, }
@article {pmid31994762, year = {2020}, author = {Rosner, D}, title = {Tilting at Windmills: Global Warming and Global Warnings.}, journal = {The Milbank quarterly}, volume = {98}, number = {1}, pages = {22-25}, pmid = {31994762}, issn = {1468-0009}, mesh = {*Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Politics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid31994267, year = {2020}, author = {Dullinger, I and Gattringer, A and Wessely, J and Moser, D and Plutzar, C and Willner, W and Egger, C and Gaube, V and Haberl, H and Mayer, A and Bohner, A and Gilli, C and Pascher, K and Essl, F and Dullinger, S}, title = {A socio-ecological model for predicting impacts of land-use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {2336-2352}, pmid = {31994267}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Austrian Academy of Sciences/ ; }, abstract = {Climate and land-use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent-based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine-grained land-use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land-use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio-economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land-use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land-use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land-use changes because alternative future socio-economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land-use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land-use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi-natural habitat. We conclude that agent-based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.}, }
@article {pmid31993386, year = {2019}, author = {Anwar, A and Anwar, S and Ayub, M and Nawaz, F and Hyder, S and Khan, N and Malik, I}, title = {Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: Evidence from Highly Vulnerable Countries.}, journal = {Iranian journal of public health}, volume = {48}, number = {12}, pages = {2187-2195}, pmid = {31993386}, issn = {2251-6085}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is an alarming challenge for humanity at large due to its mediating role in emergence and spread of infectious diseases like cholera and malaria. This study was conducted to examine the effect of climate change and some socio-economic factors on incidence of infectious diseases.<br><br>METHODS: We used country level panel data over the 1990-2017 period using panel ARDL-PMG technique on highly affected countries from climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: There is a long run co-integrating relationship among climate change, socio-economic factors and prevalence of infectious diseases. Climate change, as measured by the temperature, is contributing to the spread of infectious diseases.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This is the first study giving evidence of the impact of climate change on incidence of infectious diseases as can be seen from highly vulnerable countries to climate change. It is recommended to improve the level of education along with public health and town planning to reduce the incidence of infectious diseases.}, }
@article {pmid31993084, year = {2020}, author = {Scheiner, SM and Barfield, M and Holt, RD}, title = {The genetics of phenotypic plasticity. XVII. Response to climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {388-399}, pmid = {31993084}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {The world is changing at a rapid rate, threatening extinction for a large part of the world's biota. One potential response to those altered conditions is to evolve so as to be able to persist in place. Such evolution includes not just traits themselves, but also the phenotypic plasticity of those traits. We used individual-based simulations to explore the potential of an evolving phenotypic plasticity to increase the probability of persistence in the response to either a step change or continual, directional change in the environment accompanied by within-generation random environmental fluctuations. Populations could evolve by altering both their nonplastic and plastic genetic components. We found that phenotypic plasticity enhanced survival and adaptation if that plasticity was not costly. If plasticity was costly, for it to be beneficial the phenotypic magnitude of plasticity had to be great enough in the initial generations to overcome those costs. These results were not sensitive to either the magnitude of the within-generation correlation between the environment of development and the environment of selection or the magnitude of the environmental fluctuations, except for very small phenotypic magnitudes of plasticity. So, phenotypic plasticity has the potential to enhance survival; however, more data are needed on the ubiquity of trait plasticity, the extent of costs of plasticity, and the rate of mutational input of genetic variation for plasticity.}, }
@article {pmid31991679, year = {2020}, author = {Iriti, M and Vitalini, S}, title = {Sustainable Crop Protection, Global Climate Change, Food Security and Safety-Plant Immunity at the Crossroads.}, journal = {Vaccines}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {31991679}, issn = {2076-393X}, abstract = {The development of novel strategies of plant disease management is crucial in view of the growing demand of sustainability in agri-food chains. The use of agrochemicals is not without risk for the consumer and environment in terms of their residues in food, feed, water bodies and harmful effects on nontarget organisms. However, because of the high global annual yield losses attributable to plant diseases and also due to global climate changes that have exacerbated some phytosanitary emergences, chemical input in agriculture is mandatory. In this complex scenario, the use of agrochemicals that boost the plant immune system represents a relatively novel approach in crop protection. These plant protection products are not antimicrobial or fungicidal agents, but include both natural and synthetic elicitors and plant activators that only target the host immune system, with no biocide mechanism of action. In general, these products present a number of strengths: they leave no residue and should not select resistant pathogen strains, they can be used to control virus diseases, and can increase the levels of bioactive phytochemicals in plant foods.}, }
@article {pmid31988725, year = {2020}, author = {Ahrens, CW and Andrew, ME and Mazanec, RA and Ruthrof, KX and Challis, A and Hardy, G and Byrne, M and Tissue, DT and Rymer, PD}, title = {Plant functional traits differ in adaptability and are predicted to be differentially affected by climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {232-248}, pmid = {31988725}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change is testing the resilience of forests worldwide pushing physiological tolerance to climatic extremes. Plant functional traits have been shown to be adapted to climate and have evolved patterns of trait correlations (similar patterns of distribution) and coordinations (mechanistic trade-off). We predicted that traits would differentiate between populations associated with climatic gradients, suggestive of adaptive variation, and correlated traits would adapt to future climate scenarios in similar ways.We measured genetically determined trait variation and described patterns of correlation for seven traits: photochemical reflectance index (PRI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf size (LS), specific leaf area (SLA), δ[13]C (integrated water-use efficiency, WUE), nitrogen concentration (NCONC), and wood density (WD). All measures were conducted in an experimental plantation on 960 trees sourced from 12 populations of a key forest canopy species in southwestern Australia.Significant differences were found between populations for all traits. Narrow-sense heritability was significant for five traits (0.15-0.21), indicating that natural selection can drive differentiation; however, SLA (0.08) and PRI (0.11) were not significantly heritable. Generalized additive models predicted trait values across the landscape for current and future climatic conditions (>90% variance). The percent change differed markedly among traits between current and future predictions (differing as little as 1.5% (δ[13]C) or as much as 30% (PRI)). Some trait correlations were predicted to break down in the future (SLA:NCONC, δ[13]C:PRI, and NCONC:WD).Synthesis: Our results suggest that traits have contrasting genotypic patterns and will be subjected to different climate selection pressures, which may lower the working optimum for functional traits. Further, traits are independently associated with different climate factors, indicating that some trait correlations may be disrupted in the future. Genetic constraints and trait correlations may limit the ability for functional traits to adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31988428, year = {2020}, author = {Moulton, AD}, title = {Needed: new authority to build public health system capacity for climate change health threats.}, journal = {Journal of public health policy}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {14-23}, pmid = {31988428}, issn = {1745-655X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Federal Government ; Humans ; Local Government ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United States ; }, abstract = {Strong public health system capacity is essential to protection against climate change health threats. Taken as a whole, the United States (U.S.) public health system lacks the requisite capacity. Unlike some other countries, the U.S. federal government and most state and local governments give low priority to strengthening public health capacity even though states and localities have begun investing billions of dollars in strategies to protect physical infrastructure from climate change-related severe weather events. I recommend enactment of new legislative authority specifically to develop public health capacity more rapidly and completely. Doing so can give new impetus to construction of, ultimately, a national public health system able to protect all those who reside in the U.S. from climate change health threats and to serve as a model for building such system capacity globally.}, }
@article {pmid31988113, year = {2020}, author = {Morales-Castilla, I and García de Cortázar-Atauri, I and Cook, BI and Lacombe, T and Parker, A and van Leeuwen, C and Nicholas, KA and Wolkovich, EM}, title = {Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {6}, pages = {2864-2869}, pmid = {31988113}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Seasons ; Vitis/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {Agrobiodiversity-the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices-is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531-539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al., Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261-270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly Vitis vinifera subspecies vinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation-phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 °C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 °C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change-including in major winegrowing regions-as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.}, }
@article {pmid31987640, year = {2020}, author = {Schleuning, M and Neuschulz, EL and Albrecht, J and Bender, IMA and Bowler, DE and Dehling, DM and Fritz, SA and Hof, C and Mueller, T and Nowak, L and Sorensen, MC and Böhning-Gaese, K and Kissling, WD}, title = {Trait-Based Assessments of Climate-Change Impacts on Interacting Species.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {319-328}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2019.12.010}, pmid = {31987640}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Plant-animal interactions are fundamentally important in ecosystems, but have often been ignored by studies of climate-change impacts on biodiversity. Here, we present a trait-based framework for predicting the responses of interacting plants and animals to climate change. We distinguish three pathways along which climate change can impact interacting species in ecological communities: (i) spatial and temporal mismatches in the occurrence and abundance of species, (ii) the formation of novel interactions and secondary extinctions, and (iii) alterations of the dispersal ability of plants. These pathways are mediated by three kinds of functional traits: response traits, matching traits, and dispersal traits. We propose that incorporating these traits into predictive models will improve assessments of the responses of interacting species to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31985222, year = {2020}, author = {Yang, Y and Guo, Y and O'Brien, AM and Lins, TF and Rochman, CM and Sinton, D}, title = {Biological Responses to Climate Change and Nanoplastics Are Altered in Concert: Full-Factor Screening Reveals Effects of Multiple Stressors on Primary Producers.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {2401-2410}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b07040}, pmid = {31985222}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; Plastics ; Polystyrenes ; }, abstract = {While the combined presence of global climate change and nanosized plastic particle (i.e., nanoplastic) pollution is clear, the potential for interactions between climate-change-shifting environmental parameters and nanoplastics is largely unknown. Here, we aim to understand how nanoplastics will affect species in concert with climate change in freshwater ecosystems. We utilized a high-throughput full-factorial experimental system and the model photosynthetic microorganism Scenedesmus obliquus to capture the complexity of interacting environmental stressors, including CO2, temperature, light, and nanoplastics. Under a massive number of conditions (2000+), we consistently found concentration-dependent inhibition of algal growth in the presence of polystyrene nanoparticles, highlighting a threat to primary productivity in aquatic ecosystems. Our high-treatment experiment also identified crucial interactions between nanoplastics and climate change. We found that relatively low temperature and ambient CO2 exacerbated damage induced by nanoplastics, while elevated CO2 and warmer temperatures reflecting climate change scenarios somewhat attenuated nanoplastic toxicity. Further, we revealed that nanoplastics may modulate light responses, implying that risks of nanoplastic pollution may also depend on local irradiation conditions. Our study highlights the coupled impacts of nanoplastics and climate change, as well as the value of full-factorial screening in predicting biological responses to multifaceted global change.}, }
@article {pmid31984414, year = {2020}, author = {Taylor, SA}, title = {The Politics and Impact of Climate Change on Health Policy.}, journal = {Health &amp; social work}, volume = {45}, number = {1}, pages = {9-11}, doi = {10.1093/hsw/hlz042}, pmid = {31984414}, issn = {1545-6854}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Deception ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Politics ; United States ; United States Environmental Protection Agency/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid31983344, year = {2020}, author = {Seddon, N and Chausson, A and Berry, P and Girardin, CAJ and Smith, A and Turner, B}, title = {Understanding the value and limits of nature-based solutions to climate change and other global challenges.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {1794}, pages = {20190120}, pmid = {31983344}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, abstract = {There is growing awareness that 'nature-based solutions' (NbS) can help to protect us from climate change impacts while slowing further warming, supporting biodiversity and securing ecosystem services. However, the potential of NbS to provide the intended benefits has not been rigorously assessed. There are concerns over their reliability and cost-effectiveness compared to engineered alternatives, and their resilience to climate change. Trade-offs can arise if climate mitigation policy encourages NbS with low biodiversity value, such as afforestation with non-native monocultures. This can result in maladaptation, especially in a rapidly changing world where biodiversity-based resilience and multi-functional landscapes are key. Here, we highlight the rise of NbS in climate policy-focusing on their potential for climate change adaptation as well as mitigation-and discuss barriers to their evidence-based implementation. We outline the major financial and governance challenges to implementing NbS at scale, highlighting avenues for further research. As climate policy turns increasingly towards greenhouse gas removal approaches such as afforestation, we stress the urgent need for natural and social scientists to engage with policy makers. They must ensure that NbS can achieve their potential to tackle both the climate and biodiversity crisis while also contributing to sustainable development. This will require systemic change in the way we conduct research and run our institutions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.}, }
@article {pmid31983343, year = {2020}, author = {Roberts, CM and O'Leary, BC and Hawkins, JP}, title = {Climate change mitigation and nature conservation both require higher protected area targets.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {1794}, pages = {20190121}, pmid = {31983343}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; }, abstract = {Nations of the world have, to date, pursued nature protection and climate change mitigation and adaptation policies separately. Both efforts have failed to achieve the scale of action needed to halt biodiversity loss or mitigate climate change. We argue that success can be achieved by aligning targets for biodiversity protection with the habitat protection and restoration necessary to bring down greenhouse gas concentrations and promote natural and societal adaptation to climate change. Success, however, will need much higher targets for environmental protection than the present 10% of sea and 17% of land. A new target of 30% of the sea given high levels of protection from exploitation and harm by 2030 is under consideration and similar targets are being discussed for terrestrial habitats. We make the case here that these higher targets, if achieved, would make the transition to a warmer world slower and less damaging for nature and people. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.}, }
@article {pmid31983341, year = {2020}, author = {Hobbie, SE and Grimm, NB}, title = {Nature-based approaches to managing climate change impacts in cities.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {1794}, pages = {20190124}, pmid = {31983341}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Floods ; Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Managing and adapting to climate change in urban areas will become increasingly important as urban populations grow, especially because unique features of cities amplify climate change impacts. High impervious cover exacerbates impacts of climate warming through urban heat island effects and of heavy rainfall by magnifying runoff and flooding. Concentration of human settlements along rivers and coastal zones increases exposure of people and infrastructure to climate change hazards, often disproportionately affecting those who are least prepared. Nature-based strategies (NBS), which use living organisms, soils and sediments, and/or landscape features to reduce climate change hazards, hold promise as being more flexible, multi-functional and adaptable to an uncertain and non-stationary climate future than traditional approaches. Nevertheless, future research should address the effectiveness of NBS for reducing climate change impacts and whether they can be implemented at scales appropriate to climate change hazards and impacts. Further, there is a need for accurate and comprehensive cost-benefit analyses that consider disservices and co-benefits, relative to grey alternatives, and how costs and benefits are distributed across different communities. NBS are most likely to be effective and fair when they match the scale of the challenge, are implemented with input from diverse voices and are appropriate to specific social, cultural, ecological and technological contexts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.}, }
@article {pmid31983340, year = {2020}, author = {Sandom, CJ and Middleton, O and Lundgren, E and Rowan, J and Schowanek, SD and Svenning, JC and Faurby, S}, title = {Trophic rewilding presents regionally specific opportunities for mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {1794}, pages = {20190125}, pmid = {31983340}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Mammals/physiology ; }, abstract = {Large-bodied mammalian herbivores can influence processes that exacerbate or mitigate climate change. Herbivore impacts are, in turn, influenced by predators that place top-down forcing on prey species within a given body size range. Here, we explore how the functional composition of terrestrial large-herbivore and -carnivore guilds varies between three mammal distribution scenarios: Present-Natural, Current-Day and Extant-Native Trophic (ENT) Rewilding. Considering the effects of herbivore species weakly influenced by top-down forcing, we quantify the relative influence keystone large-herbivore guilds have on methane emissions, woody vegetation expansion, fire dynamics, large-seed dispersal, and nitrogen and phosphorus transport potential. We find strong regional differences in the number of herbivores under weak top-down regulation between our three scenarios, with important implications for how they will influence climate change relevant processes. Under the Present-Natural non-ruminant, megaherbivore, browsers were a particularly important guild across much of the world. Megaherbivore extinction and range contraction and the arrival of livestock mean large, ruminant, grazers have become more dominant. ENT Rewilding can restore the Afrotropics and the Indo-Malay realm to the Present-Natural benchmark, but causes top-down forcing of the largest herbivores to become commonplace elsewhere. ENT Rewilding will reduce methane emissions, but does not maximize natural climate solution potential. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.}, }
@article {pmid31983335, year = {2020}, author = {Lawler, JJ and Rinnan, DS and Michalak, JL and Withey, JC and Randels, CR and Possingham, HP}, title = {Planning for climate change through additions to a national protected area network: implications for cost and configuration.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {1794}, pages = {20190117}, pmid = {31983335}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change/economics ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/*methods ; Parks, Recreational/*economics ; *Plant Dispersal ; *Refugium ; United States ; }, abstract = {Expanding the network of protected areas is a core strategy for conserving biodiversity in the face of climate change. Here, we explore the impacts on reserve network cost and configuration associated with planning for climate change in the USA using networks that prioritize areas projected to be climatically suitable for 1460 species both today and into the future, climatic refugia and areas likely to facilitate climate-driven species movements. For 14% of the species, networks of sites selected solely to protect areas currently climatically suitable failed to provide climatically suitable habitat in the future. Protecting sites climatically suitable for species today and in the future significantly changed the distribution of priority sites across the USA-increasing relative protection in the northeast, northwest and central USA. Protecting areas projected to retain their climatic suitability for species cost 59% more than solely protecting currently suitable areas. Including all climatic refugia and 20% of areas that facilitate climate-driven movements increased the cost by another 18%. Our results indicate that protecting some types of climatic refugia may be a relatively inexpensive adaptation strategy. Moreover, although addressing climate change in conservation plans will have significant implications for the configuration of networks, the increased cost of doing so may be relatively modest. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.}, }
@article {pmid31983332, year = {2020}, author = {Solan, M and Bennett, EM and Mumby, PJ and Leyland, J and Godbold, JA}, title = {Benthic-based contributions to climate change mitigation and adaptation.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {1794}, pages = {20190107}, pmid = {31983332}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; }, abstract = {Innovative solutions to improve the condition and resilience of ecosystems are needed to address societal challenges and pave the way towards a climate-resilient future. Nature-based solutions offer the potential to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural or modified ecosystems while providing multiple other benefits for health, the economy, society and the environment. However, the implementation of nature-based solutions stems from a discourse that is almost exclusively derived from a terrestrial and urban context and assumes that risk reduction is resolved locally. We argue that this position ignores the importance of complex ecological interactions across a range of temporal and spatial scales and misses the substantive contribution from marine ecosystems, which are notably absent from most climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that extend beyond coastal disaster management. Here, we consider the potential of sediment-dwelling fauna and flora to inform and support nature-based solutions, and how the ecology of benthic environments can enhance adaptation plans. We illustrate our thesis with examples of practice that are generating, or have the potential to deliver, transformative change and discuss where further innovation might be applied. Finally, we take a reflective look at the realized and potential capacity of benthic-based solutions to contribute to adaptation plans and offer our perspectives on the suitability and shortcomings of past achievements and the prospective rewards from sensible prioritization of future research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.}, }
@article {pmid31983329, year = {2020}, author = {Malhi, Y and Franklin, J and Seddon, N and Solan, M and Turner, MG and Field, CB and Knowlton, N}, title = {Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {1794}, pages = {20190104}, pmid = {31983329}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is being experienced in the early twenty-first century is intimately entwined with the health and functioning of the biosphere. Climate change is impacting ecosystems through changes in mean conditions and in climate variability, coupled with other associated changes such as increased ocean acidification and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. At the same time, ecosystems can also assist in the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The mechanisms, potential and limits of such nature-based solutions to climate change need to be explored and quantified. This paper introduces a thematic issue dedicated to the interaction between climate change and the biosphere. It explores novel perspectives on how ecosystems respond to climate change, how ecosystem resilience can be enhanced and how ecosystems can assist in addressing the challenge of a changing climate. It draws on a Royal Society-National Academy of Sciences Forum held in Washington DC in November 2018, where these themes and issues were discussed. We conclude by identifying some priorities for academic research and practical implementation, in order to maximize the potential for maintaining a diverse, resilient and well-functioning biosphere under the challenging conditions of the twenty-first century. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.}, }
@article {pmid31983326, year = {2020}, author = {Turner, MG and Calder, WJ and Cumming, GS and Hughes, TP and Jentsch, A and LaDeau, SL and Lenton, TM and Shuman, BN and Turetsky, MR and Ratajczak, Z and Williams, JW and Williams, AP and Carpenter, SR}, title = {Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {1794}, pages = {20190105}, pmid = {31983326}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Ecologists have long studied patterns, directions and tempos of change, but there is a pressing need to extend current understanding to empirical observations of abrupt changes as climate warming accelerates. Abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES)-changes that are fast in time or fast relative to their drivers-are ubiquitous and increasing in frequency. Powerful theoretical frameworks exist, yet applications in real-world landscapes to detect, explain and anticipate ACES have lagged. We highlight five insights emerging from empirical studies of ACES across diverse ecosystems: (i) ecological systems show ACES in some dimensions but not others; (ii) climate extremes may be more important than mean climate in generating ACES; (iii) interactions among multiple drivers often produce ACES; (iv) contingencies, such as ecological memory, frequency and sequence of disturbances, and spatial context are important; and (v) tipping points are often (but not always) associated with ACES. We suggest research priorities to advance understanding of ACES in the face of climate change. Progress in understanding ACES requires strong integration of scientific approaches (theory, observations, experiments and process-based models) and high-quality empirical data drawn from a diverse array of ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.}, }
@article {pmid31983325, year = {2020}, author = {Lavorel, S and Locatelli, B and Colloff, MJ and Bruley, E}, title = {Co-producing ecosystem services for adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {1794}, pages = {20190119}, pmid = {31983325}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Ecosystems can sustain social adaptation to environmental change by protecting people from climate change effects and providing options for sustaining material and non-material benefits as ecological structure and functions transform. Along adaptation pathways, people navigate the trade-offs between different ecosystem contributions to adaptation, or adaptation services (AS), and can enhance their synergies and co-benefits as environmental change unfolds. Understanding trade-offs and co-benefits of AS is therefore essential to support social adaptation and requires analysing how people co-produce AS. We analysed co-production along the three steps of the ecosystem cascade: (i) ecosystem management; (ii) mobilization; and (iii) appropriation, social access and appreciation. Using five exemplary case studies across socio-ecosystems and continents, we show how five broad mechanisms already active for current ecosystem services can enhance co-benefits and minimize trade-offs between AS: (1) traditional and multi-functional land/sea management targeting ecological resilience; (2) pro-active management for ecosystem transformation; (3) co-production of novel services in landscapes without compromising other services; (4) collective governance of all co-production steps; and (5) feedbacks from appropriation, appreciation of and social access to main AS. We conclude that knowledge and recognition of co-production mechanisms will enable pro-active management and governance for collective adaptation to ecosystem transformation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.}, }
@article {pmid31982999, year = {2020}, author = {Chandio, AA and Ozturk, I and Akram, W and Ahmad, F and Mirani, AA}, title = {Empirical analysis of climate change factors affecting cereal yield: evidence from Turkey.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {11}, pages = {11944-11957}, pmid = {31982999}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Edible Grain/*chemistry ; Rain ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {This research has examined the dynamic linkages among climate change factors, such as CO2 emissions, temperature, rainfall, and cereal yield in Turkey from 1968 to 2014. At first step, we tested stationary properties of the climatic factors and crop yield by using both traditional and breakpoint unit root tests. After the confirmation of given properties, we used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to capture the dynamic relationship among the variables in the given span of time. The empirical results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship that exists between climate change factors and cereal yield. CO2 emissions and average temperature have a diverse effect on the cereal yield, whereas average rainfall has a positive effect on the cereal yield in both the long run and short run. To check the causality, we use the Granger causality test that reveals a significant effect of climate change variables on the cereal yield. The unidirectional causal link is significant among temperature and rainfall factors. The results show that the cereal yield is affected by more climate factors like rain fall and temperature due to CO2 emissions as compared to land and labor use. Based on the findings of the study, few suggestions have been made to address the climate change factors. Devise agriculture-specific adaptation policy for the farmers to build their capacity and resilience to tackle climate changes, for example, farm practices. Agriculture research and development should work on cereal crop varieties that can tolerate the high temperature and precipitation. These policies could help the agriculture sector to sustain production and allocation efficiency in the long run.}, }
@article {pmid31982770, year = {2020}, author = {Anwar, MR and Wang, B and Liu, L and Waters, C}, title = {Late planting has great potential to mitigate the effects of future climate change on Australian rain-fed cotton.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {714}, number = {}, pages = {136806}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136806}, pmid = {31982770}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Gossypium ; Rain ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The rain-fed cotton industry in Australia is vulnerable to climate change due to its high dependence on seasonal climate and summer rainfall. The rain-fed cotton in eastern Australia is increasingly being incorporated into cereal crop rotations due to government regulation of water resources, restricting opportunities for irrigated cotton. The accurate quantification of future climate impacts on exposed cropping systems such as rain-fed cotton is required to identify effective agronomic practices and inform strategic industry planning for the expansion of Australian cotton industry. Our study utilized 32 General Circulation Model (GCMs) for four cotton-growing regions representing the geographic range of cotton production in eastern Australia. We assessed the climate impacts on rain-fed cotton yield for two future periods (2040s and 2080s) under the RCP4.5 (low) and RCP8.5 (high) emissions scenarios employing the processed-based APSIM-Cotton model. Our results showed that current cotton yields varied with planting date, and the magnitude of yield change was consistent with regional climate variations at four locations representing the current geographic distribution of rain-fed cotton production. Means from multi-GCM ensemble showed growth period temperature increased more under RCP8.5 in the longer-term (2080s). Growth period rainfall changes had significantly positive effects on yield at all planting dates over each site. The projected increases in rainfall were more evident at later planting dates for dry sites than early planting dates at wet sites. In addition, we found planting date had the greatest influence on cotton yield at wet sites, while GCMs accounted for a large portion of variation in cotton yield at dry sites. We conclude that later planting has a great potential to increase rain-fed cotton yields. This provides important insights for regional-specific adaptation strategies for the rain-fed cotton industry in eastern Australia.}, }
@article {pmid31981884, year = {2020}, author = {Ubeda, C and Hornedo-Ortega, R and Cerezo, AB and Garcia-Parrilla, MC and Troncoso, AM}, title = {Chemical hazards in grapes and wine, climate change and challenges to face.}, journal = {Food chemistry}, volume = {314}, number = {}, pages = {126222}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodchem.2020.126222}, pmid = {31981884}, issn = {1873-7072}, mesh = {Biogenic Amines ; *Climate Change ; Fermentation ; *Food Safety ; Fungi/chemistry ; Mycotoxins ; Sulfur Dioxide ; Urethane ; Vitis/*chemistry ; Wine/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change has an impact on the chemical risks associated to wine consumption related with grape development and microbial contamination. We can classify chemical hazards in wine into two groups: those present in grapes due to agricultural practices, environmental contamination or fungal growth and those coming from fermentation and the winemaking process. The first group includes mycotoxins, whilst the second encompasses ethyl carbamate, biogenic amines, sulfur dioxide and proteins used as technological ingredients such as fining material. Usually the effective control of chemical hazards is achieved by assuring that they either are minimized or absent in the final product since their removal is somewhat difficult and sometimes it may affect sensory properties, which is a major issue in wine. Interestingly, it is possible to give recommendations to avoid excess of these compounds, but more research is needed to face future challenges related to climate change and consumer demands.}, }
@article {pmid31981871, year = {2020}, author = {Wu, X and Liu, J and Li, C and Yin, J}, title = {Impact of climate change on dysentery: Scientific evidences, uncertainty, modeling and projections.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {714}, number = {}, pages = {136702}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136702}, pmid = {31981871}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases ; *Dysentery ; Floods ; Humans ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Dysentery is water-borne and food-borne infectious disease and its incidence is sensitive to climate change. Although the impact of climate change on dysentery is being studied in specific areas, a systematic review is lacking. We searched the worldwide literature using three sets of keywords and six databases. We identified and selected 98 studies during 1866-2019 and reviewed the relevant findings. Climate change, including long-term variations in factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity, and short-term variations in extreme weather events, such as floods and drought, mostly had a harmful impact on dysentery incidence. However, some uncertainty over the exact effects of climate factors exists, specifically in the different indexes for the same climate factor, various determinant indexes for different dysentery burdens, and divergent effects for different population groups. These complicate the accurate quantification of such impacts. We generalized two types of methods: sensitivity analysis, used to detect the sensitivity of dysentery to climate change, including Pearson's and Spearman's correlations; and mathematical models, which quantify the impact of climate on dysentery, and include models that examine the associations (including negative binomial regression models) and quantify correlations (including single generalized additive models and mixed models). Projection studies mostly predict disease risks, and some predict disease incidence based on climate models under RCP 4.5. Since some geographic heterogeneity exists in the climate-dysentery relationship, modeling and projection of dysentery incidence on a national or global scale remain challenging. The reviewed results have implications for the present and future. Current research should be extended to select appropriate and robust climate-dysentery models, reasonable disease burden measure, and appropriate climate models and scenarios. We recommend future studies focus on qualitative investigation of the mechanism involved in the impact of climate on dysentery, and accurate projection of dysentery incidence, aided by advancing accuracy of extreme weather forecasting.}, }
@article {pmid31981032, year = {2020}, author = {Azevedo, SG and Sequeira, T and Santos, M and Nikuma, D}, title = {Climate change and sustainable development: the case of Amazonia and policy implications.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {7745-7756}, pmid = {31981032}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {UID/ECO/04007/2019//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; }, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forests ; Rainforest ; }, abstract = {The relationship between sustainable development and climate change has been extensively addressed, but with few studies focusing on the Amazonian Rainforest. Due to its dimension and importance, preserving it is critical in order to mitigate the problem of climate change associated with rising temperatures, lower precipitation, and the increase of extreme weather events. This paper studies the effects of climate change on the sustainable development of Amazonia. A scientometric analysis was carried out which reveals the evolution of the research field in terms of the growing number of works that have been published in top journals and the main drivers of climate change in Amazonia, such as deforestation, global warming, and land use. Our results indicate that the environmental dimension of sustainable development has been the issue most studied. Our analysis leads us to recommend that policymakers implement incentives for better forest management, design policies with realistic expectations, and rely more on technical reports and approaches to implement policies. Better integration of policies at local, regional, national, and international levels is necessary in order to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Several measures to intensify the scientific approaches joining economic and social dimensions are also proposed. This work contributes to the systematization of the literature on sustainable development and climate change in Amazonia, which has not yet been done, and provides policy recommendations to researchers and professionals for a better understanding of climate change and sustainable development in the Amazonia region of Brazil.}, }
@article {pmid31978205, year = {2020}, author = {Guerra-Correa, ES and Merino-Viteri, A and Andrango, MB and Torres-Carvajal, O}, title = {Thermal biology of two tropical lizards from the Ecuadorian Andes and their vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {e0228043}, pmid = {31978205}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Air ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecuador ; Lizards/*physiology ; *Temperature ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {This study aims to analyze the thermal biology and climatic vulnerability of two closely related lizard species (Stenocercus festae and S. guentheri) inhabiting the Ecuadorian Andes at high altitudes. Four physiological parameters-body temperature (Tb), preferred temperature (Tpref), critical thermal maximum (CTmax), and critical thermal minimum (CTmin)-were evaluated to analyze the variation of thermophysiological traits among these populations that inhabit different environmental and altitudinal conditions. We also evaluate the availability of operative temperatures, warming tolerance, and thermal safety margin of each population to estimate their possible risks in the face of future raising temperatures. Similar to previous studies, our results suggest that some physiological traits (CTmax and Tb) are influenced by environmental heterogeneity, which brings changes on the thermoregulatory behavior. Other parameters (Tpref and CTmin), may be also influenced by phylogenetic constraints. Moreover, the fluctuating air temperature (Tair) as well as the operative temperatures (Te) showed that these lizards exploit a variety of thermal microenvironments, which may facilitate behavioral thermoregulation. Warming tolerance and thermal safety margin analyses suggest that both species find thermal refugia and remain active without reducing their performance or undergoing thermal stress within their habitats. We suggest that studies on the thermal biology of tropical Andean lizards living at high altitudes are extremely important as these environments exhibit a unique diversity of microclimates, which consequently result on particular thermophysiological adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid31978170, year = {2020}, author = {Sewell, DK and Rayner, PJ and Shank, DB and Guy, S and Lilburn, SD and Saber, S and Kashima, Y}, title = {Correction: Causal knowledge promotes behavioral self-regulation: An example using climate change dynamics.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {e0228445}, pmid = {31978170}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0184480.].}, }
@article {pmid31976075, year = {2020}, author = {Domenici, P and Seebacher, F}, title = {The impacts of climate change on the biomechanics of animals: Themed Issue Article: Biomechanics and Climate Change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {coz102}, pmid = {31976075}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change induces unprecedented variability in a broad range of environmental parameters. These changes will impact material properties and animal biomechanics, thereby affecting animal performance and persistence of populations. Climate change implies warming at the global level, and it may be accompanied by altered wind speeds, wave action, ocean circulation, acidification as well as increased frequency of hypoxic events. Together, these environmental drivers affect muscle function and neural control and thereby movement of animals such as bird migration and schooling behaviour of fish. Altered environmental conditions will also modify material properties of animals. For example, ocean acidification, particularly when coupled with increased temperatures, compromises calcified shells and skeletons of marine invertebrates and byssal threads of mussels. These biomechanical consequences can lead to population declines and disintegration of habitats. Integrating biomechanical research with ecology is instrumental in predicting the future responses of natural systems to climate change and the consequences for ecosystem services such as fisheries and ecotourism.}, }
@article {pmid31974514, year = {2020}, author = {Phillips, N and Nogrady, B}, title = {The race to decipher how climate change influenced Australia's record fires.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {577}, number = {7792}, pages = {610-612}, pmid = {31974514}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Desiccation ; Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Fires/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Humidity ; Lung/drug effects/pathology ; Rain ; *Research ; Seasons ; Smoke/adverse effects ; Stress, Psychological ; Wind ; }, }
@article {pmid31974387, year = {2020}, author = {Petersen, AM and Vincent, EM and Westerling, AL}, title = {Addendum: Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {553}, pmid = {31974387}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid31974347, year = {2020}, author = {Balderas Torres, A and Lazaro Vargas, P and Paavola, J}, title = {The systemic and governmental agendas in presidential attention to climate change in Mexico 1994-2018.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {455}, pmid = {31974347}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Ambitious climate action requires sustained long-term attention from political leaders. To understand how climate change entered the political agenda in a developing country, we examine from an agenda-setting perspective the attention paid by Mexican presidents to this issue from 1994 to 2018. We perform a longitudinal analysis of 968 documents referring to climate change published by four presidencies to describe changes in attention levels over time and to determine how changes in international agreements and public policies (i.e. systemic agenda) and National Development Plans (NDPs)(i.e. governmental agenda) influence them. Our results indicate international agreements and national legislation establish a baseline for inclusion of climate change into governmental actions. Agenda changes driven by international agreements result in reactive changes in attention, while ambitious approaches are aligned with proactive NDPs. Our results also indicate public awareness and electoral periods can open windows of opportunity for reframing agendas and promoting ambitious climate action.}, }
@article {pmid31971648, year = {2020}, author = {Thackeray, SJ and Robinson, SA and Smith, P and Bruno, R and Kirschbaum, MUF and Bernacchi, C and Byrne, M and Cheung, W and Cotrufo, MF and Gienapp, P and Hartley, S and Janssens, I and Hefin Jones, T and Kobayashi, K and Luo, Y and Penuelas, J and Sage, R and Suggett, DJ and Way, D and Long, S}, title = {Civil disobedience movements such as School Strike for the Climate are raising public awareness of the climate change emergency.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {1042-1044}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14978}, pmid = {31971648}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid31970754, year = {2020}, author = {Coates, SJ and Enbiale, W and Davis, MDP and Andersen, LK}, title = {The effects of climate change on human health in Africa, a dermatologic perspective: a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {59}, number = {3}, pages = {265-278}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.14759}, pmid = {31970754}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Africa ; *Climate Change/economics ; Dermatology ; Developing Countries/economics ; Food Supply/economics ; Humans ; Malnutrition/complications ; *Public Health/economics ; *Skin Diseases/etiology ; }, abstract = {Throughout much of the African continent, healthcare systems are already strained in their efforts to meet the needs of a growing population using limited resources. Climate change threatens to undermine many of the public health gains that have been made in this region in the last several decades via multiple mechanisms, including malnutrition secondary to drought-induced food insecurity, mass human displacement from newly uninhabitable areas, exacerbation of environmentally sensitive chronic diseases, and enhanced viability of pathogenic microbes and their vectors. We reviewed the literature describing the various direct and indirect effects of climate change on diseases with cutaneous manifestations in Africa. We included non-communicable diseases such as malignancies (non-melanoma skin cancers), inflammatory dermatoses (i.e. photosensitive dermatoses, atopic dermatitis), and trauma (skin injury), as well as communicable diseases and neglected tropical diseases. Physicians should be aware of the ways in which climate change threatens human health in low- and middle-income countries in general, and particularly in countries throughout Africa, the world's lowest-income and second most populous continent.}, }
@article {pmid31967869, year = {2020}, author = {Prins, SJ and Story, B}, title = {Connecting the Dots Between Mass Incarceration, Health Inequity, and Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {110}, number = {S1}, pages = {S35-S36}, pmid = {31967869}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Services Accessibility ; Healthcare Disparities ; Humans ; Poverty ; Prisoners ; *Prisons ; *Public Health ; Racism ; Social Change ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid31965496, year = {2020}, author = {Abu Samah, A and Shaffril, HAM}, title = {A comparative study between mainland and islander small-scale fishermen's adaptation towards climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {10}, pages = {11277-11289}, pmid = {31965496}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {IPB - Grant no: GP-IPB/2014/9441300//Universiti Putra Malaysia/ ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Fisheries ; Malaysia ; }, abstract = {The existing literature have demonstrated a considerable amount of existing studies that merely interest on scientific perspectives by examining the physical environmental changes rather than conducting social-based studies that allow for the comparison of adaptation ability between mainland and island small-scale fishermen. Therefore, the current research attempts to fill this gap by investigating the adaptation level of mainland and island small-scale fishermen towards climate changes for the purpose of further identifying any significant differences regarding their adaptation aspects. The primary aim of the current research is to conduct a comparative study with the purpose of assessing the environmental change adaptation ability between the mainland and the islander small-scale fishermen. In the context of the current research, a quantitative approach was employed by selecting a total of 600 samples through several levels of cluster sampling. The instrument for the study was developed based on the 16 adaptation variables that were suggested within the adaptation framework proposed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. The data were analysed using SPSS, whereby to achieve the study's main objective, inferential analysis which refers to the independent t test was performed to examine any possible significant difference that might exist. In regard to this matter, various significant differences between the islander and the mainland fishermen managed to be detected in 10 adaptation aspects out of the 16 adaptation variables which include the capacity to adapt to change (monetary and emotional adaptability); the level of interest in adapting to change; the ability to plan, learn, and reorganize; and attachment to occupation. Accordingly, a number of recommendations were discussed at the end of this study which is hoped to assist the involved and relevant parties in arranging better adjustment approaches for small-scale fishermen in Malaysia.}, }
@article {pmid31965106, year = {2020}, author = {Davis, C and Goulet-Scott, B and Beckfield, J}, title = {Climate change: how to pack a punch at meetings.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {577}, number = {7791}, pages = {472}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00134-0}, pmid = {31965106}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Travel ; }, }
@article {pmid31965048, year = {2020}, author = {Ebi, KL}, title = {Mechanisms, policies, and tools to promote health equity and effective governance of the health risks of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of public health policy}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {11-13}, pmid = {31965048}, issn = {1745-655X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Government ; *Health Equity ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Public Policy ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {National and international policies, mechanisms, and tools are being used by health authorities to promote effective risk management of climate change, including through addressing health inequalities and effective governance.}, }
@article {pmid31961441, year = {2020}, author = {McDermott-Levy, R and Fick, DM}, title = {Advancing Gerontological Nursing Science in Climate Change.}, journal = {Research in gerontological nursing}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {6-12}, doi = {10.3928/19404921-20191204-02}, pmid = {31961441}, issn = {1938-2464}, mesh = {Aged ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Extreme Weather ; *Geriatric Nursing ; Humans ; *Nursing Research ; Vector Borne Diseases ; }, abstract = {Older adults have unique health risks related to climate change. This commentary addresses the health impacts of climate change for older adults, identifies gaps in gerontological nursing research, and highlights areas for research to address the significant gap in nursing science. Climate risks of extreme weather events, such as heat, rain, flooding, and wildfires, as well as poor air quality, vector-borne diseases, interruptions of services, and treatment plans all place older adults at risk of experiencing greater morbidity and early mortality. Despite these risks, there is a gap in nursing research related to climate change and aging. Nurse scientists can address this gap with an interdisciplinary approach. There are climate resources and theoretical frameworks to support scientific inquiry. Funding sources must be made available to assure rigorous scholarship of climate-related health impacts for older adults. Gerontological nurse researchers must build capacity to address climate change and health. [Research in Gerontological Nursing, 13(1), 6-12.].}, }
@article {pmid31961426, year = {2020}, author = {Kuehn, BM}, title = {Climate Change Puts Children at Risk.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {323}, number = {3}, pages = {209}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2019.21719}, pmid = {31961426}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid31960540, year = {2020}, author = {Kling, MM and Auer, SL and Comer, PJ and Ackerly, DD and Hamilton, H}, title = {Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {5}, pages = {2798-2813}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15008}, pmid = {31960540}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {GRFP//National Science Foundation/International ; //U.S. Bureau of Land Management/International ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western US, using data on observed climate trends from 1948 to 2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (a) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (b) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (c) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms-niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)-each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together, these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid31959976, year = {2020}, author = {Figueres, C}, title = {Paris taught me how to do what is necessary to combat climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {577}, number = {7791}, pages = {470-471}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00112-6}, pmid = {31959976}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Conservation of Energy Resources/trends ; Costa Rica ; Decision Making ; European Union ; Forestry ; Global Warming/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; *Goals ; International Cooperation/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Leadership ; *Optimism ; Paris ; Sustainable Development/*economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*trends ; Switzerland ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid31959765, year = {2020}, author = {Navarro-Racines, C and Tarapues, J and Thornton, P and Jarvis, A and Ramirez-Villegas, J}, title = {High-resolution and bias-corrected CMIP5 projections for climate change impact assessments.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {7}, pmid = {31959765}, issn = {2052-4463}, abstract = {Projections of climate change are available at coarse scales (70-400 km). But agricultural and species models typically require finer scale climate data to model climate change impacts. Here, we present a global database of future climates developed by applying the delta method -a method for climate model bias correction. We performed a technical evaluation of the bias-correction method using a 'perfect sibling' framework and show that it reduces climate model bias by 50-70%. The data include monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly total precipitation, and a set of bioclimatic indices, and can be used for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture and biodiversity. The data are publicly available in the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC; cera-www.dkrz.de), as well as in the CCAFS-Climate data portal (http://ccafs-climate.org). The database has been used up to date in more than 350 studies of ecosystem and agricultural impact assessment.}, }
@article {pmid31959419, year = {2020}, author = {Corlett, RT and Tomlinson, KW}, title = {Climate Change and Edaphic Specialists: Irresistible Force Meets Immovable Object?.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {367-376}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2019.12.007}, pmid = {31959419}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Islands ; *Specialization ; }, abstract = {Species exposed to anthropogenic climate change can acclimate, adapt, move, or be extirpated. It is often assumed that movement will be the dominant response, with populations tracking their climate envelopes in space, but the numerous species restricted to specialized substrates cannot easily move. In warmer regions of the world, such edaphic specialists appear to have accumulated in situ over millions of years, persisting despite climate change by local movements, plastic responses, and genetic adaptation. However, past climates were usually cooler than today and rates of warming slower, while edaphic islands are now exposed to multiple additional threats, including mining. Modeling studies that ignore edaphic constraints on climate change responses may therefore give misleading results for a significant proportion of all taxa.}, }
@article {pmid31957904, year = {2020}, author = {Chu, H and Yang, JZ}, title = {Risk or Efficacy? How Psychological Distance Influences Climate Change Engagement.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {40}, number = {4}, pages = {758-770}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13446}, pmid = {31957904}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {1822997//Division of Social and Economic Sciences/International ; }, mesh = {Aged ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Motivation ; *Psychological Distance ; *Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Construal-level theory suggests that high-level abstract features weigh more in people's decision-making at farther distance, while low-level concrete features weigh more at closer distance. Based on this, we propose that psychological distance will influence the effect of risk versus efficacy framing on climate change engagement. In particular, risk perception related to the end-state expectancy of climate change mitigation should influence people's climate change engagement at farther distance. In contrast, efficacy perception related to the perceived feasibility of attaining end-state goals should influence engagement at closer distance. Results from an experimental survey based on a national sample that is both demographically and geographically representative (N = 1,282) supported our proposition. At closer spatial distance, perceived efficacy boosted by efficacy framing increased participants' intention to perform climate mitigation behaviors. In contrast, at farther distance, risk framing increased behavioral intention through heightened risk perception. Based on these findings, we suggest that when communicating distant and abstract risks, highlighting their disastrous impacts may better motivate action. In contrast, when communicating impending and concrete risks, stressing the feasibility of action may have stronger motivational potential.}, }
@article {pmid31957384, year = {2020}, author = {Ji, LT and Zheng, TY and Chen, Q and Zhong, JJ and Kang, B}, title = {[Responses of potential suitable area of Paris verticillata to climate change and its dominant climate factors].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {89-96}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.202001.012}, pmid = {31957384}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Prediction of the potential distribution of species based on the data of its current distribution in combination with climatic variables is important for understanding species evolution and reasonable conservation. Based on 220 distribution sites in China and 12 low-correlation climatic variables, we analyzed the potential distribution of Paris verticillata at present and future (2050s and 2070s) using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS program. Further, we analyzed the dominant driving factors for its geographic distribution. The results showed that the area under the curve indices (AUC) was 0.940, with high prediction accuracy. The potential suitable regions of P. verticillata were mainly distributed in the Greater Xing'an Mountains, the Xiao Xing'an Mountains, the Changbai Mountains, the Qinling-Daba Mountains, Hebei, Shanxi and north Shandong under current climate scenario. Those regions accounted for 18.1% of the total suitable area in the country, of which the highly suitable areas accounted for 7.0% and the lowly suitable area 11.1%. The total suitable areas of P. verticillata in the 2050s and 2070s would decline under the climate change scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. The highly suitable area would decline, but the lowly suitable area would increase. With the global climate change, both the range and the geometric center of its distribution would gradually spread to higher altitude in the northeast. The cumulative contributions of four dominant factors reached as high as 89.2%, namely, precipitation of wettest month, mean annual temperature, isothermality, and precipitation of January. Their appropriate ranges were 100-275 mm, -0.1-16 ℃, 21-35 and 3-14 mm, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid31957148, year = {2020}, author = {Maloney, KO and Krause, KP and Buchanan, C and Hay, LE and McCabe, GJ and Smith, ZM and Sohl, TL and Young, JA}, title = {Disentangling the potential effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {2251-2269}, pmid = {31957148}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//U.S. Geological Survey/ ; }, abstract = {Land-use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long-term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land-use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin-wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land-use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed-wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed-wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land-use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed-wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%-26.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land-use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land-use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid31957145, year = {2020}, author = {Ghirardo, A and Lindstein, F and Koch, K and Buegger, F and Schloter, M and Albert, A and Michelsen, A and Winkler, JB and Schnitzler, JP and Rinnan, R}, title = {Origin of volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {1908-1925}, pmid = {31957145}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DFF-4181-00141//Natur og Univers, Det Frie Forskningsr&#xe5;d/International ; VKR022589//Villum Fonden/International ; 771012//H2020 European Research Council/International ; CENPERM DNRF100//Danmarks Grundforskningsfond/International ; }, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Tundra ; *Volatile Organic Compounds ; }, abstract = {Warming occurs in the Arctic twice as fast as the global average, which in turn leads to a large enhancement in terpenoid emissions from vegetation. Volatile terpenoids are the main class of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that play crucial roles in atmospheric chemistry and climate. However, the biochemical mechanisms behind the temperature-dependent increase in VOC emissions from subarctic ecosystems are largely unexplored. Using [13] CO2 -labeling, we studied the origin of VOCs and the carbon (C) allocation under global warming in the soil-plant-atmosphere system of contrasting subarctic heath tundra vegetation communities characterized by dwarf shrubs of the genera Salix or Betula. The projected temperature rise of the subarctic summer by 5°C was realistically simulated in sophisticated climate chambers. VOC emissions strongly depended on the plant species composition of the heath tundra. Warming caused increased VOC emissions and significant changes in the pattern of volatiles toward more reactive hydrocarbons. The [13] C was incorporated to varying degrees in different monoterpene and sesquiterpene isomers. We found that de novo monoterpene biosynthesis contributed to 40%-44% (Salix) and 60%-68% (Betula) of total monoterpene emissions under the current climate, and that warming increased the contribution to 50%-58% (Salix) and 87%-95% (Betula). Analyses of above- and belowground [12/13] C showed shifts of C allocation in the plant-soil systems and negative effects of warming on C sequestration by lowering net ecosystem exchange of CO2 and increasing C loss as VOCs. This comprehensive analysis provides the scientific basis for mechanistically understanding the processes controlling terpenoid emissions, required for modeling VOC emissions from terrestrial ecosystems and predicting the future chemistry of the arctic atmosphere. By changing the chemical composition and loads of VOCs into the atmosphere, the current data indicate that global warming in the Arctic may have implications for regional and global climate and for the delicate tundra ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid31954242, year = {2020}, author = {Messina, NJ and Couture, RM and Norton, SA and Birkel, SD and Amirbahman, A}, title = {Modeling response of water quality parameters to land-use and climate change in a temperate, mesotrophic lake.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {713}, number = {}, pages = {136549}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136549}, pmid = {31954242}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Lake Auburn, Maine, USA, is a historically unproductive lake that has experienced multiple algal blooms since 2011. The lake is the water supply source for a population of ~60,000. We modeled past temperature, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) and phosphorus (P) in Lake Auburn by considering the catchment and internal contributions of P as well as atmospheric factors, and predicted the change in lake water quality in response to future climate and land-use changes. A stream hydrology and P-loading model (SimplyP) was used to generate input from two major tributaries into a lake model (MyLake-Sediment) to simulate physical mixing, chemical dynamics, and sediment geochemistry in Lake Auburn from 2013 to 2017. Simulations of future lake water quality were conducted using meteorological boundary conditions derived from recent historical data and climate model projections for high greenhouse-gas emission cases. The effects of future land development on lake water quality for the 2046 to 2055 time period under different land-use and climate change scenarios were also simulated. Our results indicate that lake P enrichment is more responsive to extreme storm events than increasing air temperatures, mean precipitation, or windstorms; loss of fish habitat is driven by windstorms, and to a lesser extent an increasing water temperature; and catchment development further leads to water quality decline. All simulations also show that the lake is susceptible to both internal and external P loadings. Simulation of temperature, DO, and P proved to be an effective means for predicting the loss of water quality under changing land-use and climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid31953955, year = {2020}, author = {Bennett, AE and Classen, AT}, title = {Climate change influences mycorrhizal fungal-plant interactions, but conclusions are limited by geographical study bias.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {101}, number = {4}, pages = {e02978}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2978}, pmid = {31953955}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {DE-SC0010562//Biological and Environmental Research/International ; //The Ohio State University/International ; //Carlsberg Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Mycorrhizae ; Plants ; Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering the interactions among plants and soil organisms in ways that will alter the structure and function of ecosystems. We reviewed the literature and developed a map of studies focused on how the three most common types of mycorrhizal fungi (arbuscular mycorrhizal [AM], ectomycorrhizal [EcM], and ericoid mycorrhizal [ErM] fungi) respond to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (eCO2), climatic warming, and changes in the distribution of precipitation. Broadly, we ask how do mycorrhizal fungi respond to climate change, how do these responses vary by fungal type, and how do mycorrhizal traits influence plant adaptation, movement, or extinction in response to climatic change? First, we found that 92% of studies were conducted in the northern hemisphere, and plant host, ecosystem type and study location were only correlated with each other in the northern hemisphere because studies across all mycorrhizal fungal types were only common in the northern hemisphere. Second, we show that temperature and rainfall variability had more variable effects than eCO2 on mycorrhizal fungal structures, but these effects were context dependent. Third, while mycorrhizal fungal types vary in their responses to climate change, it appears that warming leads to more variable responses in ectomycorrhizal than in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Finally, we discuss common traits of mycorrhizal fungi that could aid in fungal and plant adaption to climate change. We posit that mycorrhizal fungi can buffer plant hosts against extinction risk, they can facilitate or retard the dispersal success of plants moving away from poor environments, and, by buffering host plants, they can enable host plant adaptation to new climates. All of these influences are, however, context dependent a finding that reflects the complex traits of mycorrhizal fungi as a group, the diversity of plant species they associate with and the variation in ecosystems in which they reside. Overall, while we point out many gaps in our understanding of the influence of climate changes on mycorrhizal fungi, we also highlight the large number of opportunities for researching plant and mycorrhizal fungal responses to and mitigation of climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid31953496, year = {2020}, author = {Albouy, C and Delattre, V and Donati, G and Frölicher, TL and Albouy-Boyer, S and Rufino, M and Pellissier, L and Mouillot, D and Leprieur, F}, title = {Global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {548}, pmid = {31953496}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aquatic Organisms ; Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Global Warming ; *Internationality ; *Mammals ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Although extinctions due to climate change are still uncommon, they might surpass those caused by habitat loss or overexploitation over the next few decades. Among marine megafauna, mammals fulfill key and irreplaceable ecological roles in the ocean, and the collapse of their populations may therefore have irreversible consequences for ecosystem functioning and services. Using a trait-based approach, we assessed the vulnerability of all marine mammals to global warming under high and low greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the middle and the end of the 21[st] century. We showed that the North Pacific Ocean, the Greenland Sea and the Barents Sea host the species that are most vulnerable to global warming. Future conservation plans should therefore focus on these regions, where there are long histories of overexploitation and there are high levels of current threats to marine mammals. Among the most vulnerable marine mammals were several threatened species, such as the North Pacific right whale (Eubalaena japonica) and the dugong (Dugong dugon), that displayed unique combinations of functional traits. Beyond species loss, we showed that the potential extinctions of the marine mammals that were most vulnerable to global warming might induce a disproportionate loss of functional diversity, which may have profound impacts on the future functioning of marine ecosystems worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid31953294, year = {2020}, author = {Smith, P and Balmford, A}, title = {Climate change: 'no get out of jail free card'.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {186}, number = {2}, pages = {71}, doi = {10.1136/vr.m190}, pmid = {31953294}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Livestock ; Methane ; }, abstract = {Pete Smith and Andrew Balmford argue that methane from livestock is an important contributor to climate change and that it should not be creatively discounted.}, }
@article {pmid31951035, year = {2020}, author = {Schwanz, LE and Georges, A and Holleley, CE and Sarre, SD}, title = {Climate change, sex reversal and lability of sex-determining systems.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {33}, number = {3}, pages = {270-281}, doi = {10.1111/jeb.13587}, pmid = {31951035}, issn = {1420-9101}, mesh = {Animals ; Chromosome Deletion ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Female ; Genotype ; Hot Temperature ; Male ; Sex Chromosomes/genetics ; Sex Determination Processes/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Sex reversal at high temperatures during embryonic development (e.g., ZZ females) provides the opportunity for new genotypic crosses (e.g., ZZ male × ZZ female). This raises the alarming possibility that climatic warming could lead to the loss of an entire chromosome-one member of the sex chromosome pair (the Y or W)-and the transition of populations to environmental sex determination (ESD). Here we examine the evolutionary dynamics of sex-determining systems exposed to climatic warming using theoretical models. We found that the loss of sex chromosomes is not an inevitable consequence of sex reversal. A large frequency of ZZ sex reversal (50% reversal from male to female) typically divides the outcome between loss of the ZW genotype and the stable persistence of ZZ males, ZW females and ZZ females. The amount of warming associated with sex chromosome loss depended on several features of wild populations-environmental fluctuation, immigration, heritable variation in temperature sensitivity and differential fecundity of sex-reversed individuals. Chromosome loss was partially or completely buffered when sex-reversed individuals suffered a reproductive fitness cost, when immigration occurred or when heritable variation for temperature sensitivity existed. Thus, under certain circumstances, sex chromosomes may persist cryptically in systems where the environment is the predominant influence on sex.}, }
@article {pmid31950538, year = {2020}, author = {Menzel, A and Yuan, Y and Matiu, M and Sparks, T and Scheifinger, H and Gehrig, R and Estrella, N}, title = {Climate change fingerprints in recent European plant phenology.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {2599-2612}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.15000}, pmid = {31950538}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {F.7-F5121.14.2.3./14/19//Bavarian State Ministry of Science and the Arts/ ; //China Scholarship Council/ ; //MICMoR/ ; }, abstract = {A paper published in Global Change Biology in 2006 revealed that phenological responses in 1971-2000 matched the warming pattern in Europe, but a lack of chilling and adaptation in farming may have reversed these findings. Therefore, for 1951-2018 in a corresponding data set, we determined changes as linear trends and analysed their variation by plant traits/groups, across season and time as well as their attribution to warming following IPCC methodology. Although spring and summer phases in wild plants advanced less (maximum advances in 1978-2007), more (~90%) and more significant (~60%) negative trends were present, being stronger in early spring, at higher elevations, but smaller for nonwoody insect-pollinated species. These trends were strongly attributable to winter and spring warming. Findings for crop spring phases were similar, but were less pronounced. There were clearer and attributable signs for a delayed senescence in response to winter and spring warming. These changes resulted in a longer growing season, but a constant generative period in wild plants and a shortened one in agricultural crops. Phenology determined by farmers' decisions differed noticeably from the purely climatic driven phases with smaller percentages of advancing (~75%) trends, but farmers' spring activities were the only group with reinforced advancement, suggesting adaptation. Trends in farmers' spring and summer activities were very likely/likely associated with the warming pattern. In contrast, the advance in autumn farming phases was significantly associated with below average summer warming. Thus, under ongoing climate change with decreased chilling the advancing phenology in spring and summer is still attributable to warming; even the farmers' activities in these seasons mirror, to a lesser extent, the warming. Our findings point to adaptation to climate change in agriculture and reveal diverse implications for terrestrial ecosystems; the strong attribution supports the necessary mediation of warming impacts to the general public.}, }
@article {pmid31950493, year = {2020}, author = {Fox, NJ and Alldred, P}, title = {Re-assembling climate change policy: Materialism, posthumanism, and the policy assemblage.}, journal = {The British journal of sociology}, volume = {71}, number = {2}, pages = {269-283}, doi = {10.1111/1468-4446.12734}, pmid = {31950493}, issn = {1468-4446}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; *Policy ; *Policy Making ; *Politics ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {National and international policy-makers have addressed threats to environmental sustainability from climate change and other environmental degradation for over 30 years. However, it is questionable whether current policies are socially, politically, economically, and scientifically capable of adequately resolving these threats to the planet and living organisms. In this paper we theorize and develop the concept of a "policy assemblage" from within a new materialist ontology, to interrogate critically four policy perspectives on climate change: "liberal environmentalism"; the United Nations policy statements on sustainable development; "green capitalism" (also known as "climate capitalism") and finally "no-growth economics." A materialist analysis of interactions between climate change and policies enables us to establish what each policy can do, what it ignores or omits, and consequently its adequacy to address environmental sustainability in the face of climate change. None, we conclude, is adequate or appropriate to address climate change successfully. We then use this conceptual tool to establish a "posthuman" policy on climate change. Humans, from this perspective, are part of the environment, not separate from or in opposition to it, but possess unique capacities that we suggest are now necessary to address climate change. This ontology supplies the starting point from which to establish sociologically a scientifically, socially, and politically adequate posthuman climate change policy. We offer suggestions for the constituent elements of such a policy.}, }
@article {pmid31948947, year = {2020}, author = {Hawkins, KE}, title = {Comment on 'Climate change and contraception'.}, journal = {BMJ sexual &amp; reproductive health}, volume = {46}, number = {2}, pages = {156}, doi = {10.1136/bmjsrh-2019-200554}, pmid = {31948947}, issn = {2515-2009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Contraception ; Family Planning Services ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid31941955, year = {2020}, author = {Yawson, DO and Adu, MO and Armah, FA}, title = {Impacts of climate change and mitigation policies on malt barley supplies and associated virtual water flows in the UK.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {376}, pmid = {31941955}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Barley is a major ingredient for the malting industry which is highly sensitive and vulnerable to malt barley supply. The United Kingdom (UK) has the second highest malting capacity in the EU and the third largest malting industry in the world, supplying malt to major global breweries. Premium whisky, which has both economic and cultural significance for the UK, also makes sustainable malt barley supply critical for the UK. There is paucity of information on the sustainability of future supplies of malt barley in the UK, as much as it is in the world. This study applied a food balance approach to assess the combined effects of climate change and mitigation policies on UK malt barley balances for the 2030s, 2040 s, and 2050 s. Future yields of spring barley were simulated under the low, medium and high emissions scenarios (or LES, MES, and HES, respectively) for the three time slices. Future areas of land for barley production were obtained via land use change simulation in response to climate mitigation policies and aspirations of the UK. Future yields and land areas were combined to obtain total barley production, which served as a basis of supply. Per capita malt barley consumption was combined with future population to obtain demand. The gaps between demand and supply were then assessed. The results show large deficits in malt barley supplies for all combinations of climate change, land use and population, with adverse implications for the malting industry. Total malt barley supplies under current land area for barley and using the 90[th] percentile yield, ranged from 1899 (LES, 2030s) to 2,437 thousand tonnes (HES, 2050s). The largest supply under climate mitigation land use scenarios ranged from 1,592 (LES, 2030s) to 2,120 thousand tonnes (HES, 2050s). Deficits in supply were observed for all climate mitigation land use scenarios and time slices, ranging from 128 to 585 thousand tonnes at 90[th] percentile yield. However, surpluses were observed from the 2040s if current land area for barley remains unchanged. Imports to balance the observed deficits would result in large inflows of blue water to the UK, with adverse implications for global freshwater supply and environmental sustainability. It is concluded that even though spring barley yields in the UK could increase under projected climate change, reductions in croplands (due mainly to climate mitigation policies and aspirations) could combine with population growth to undermine the sustainability of malt barley supplies, both nationally and internationally.}, }
@article {pmid31940403, year = {2020}, author = {Mihailović, DT and Petrić, D and Petrović, T and Hrnjaković-Cvjetković, I and Djurdjevic, V and Nikolić-Đorić, E and Arsenić, I and Petrić, M and Mimić, G and Ignjatović-Ćupina, A}, title = {Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {e0227679}, pmid = {31940403}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles/metabolism/pathogenicity ; *Climate Change ; Culex/virology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Insect Vectors/virology ; Malaria/*epidemiology ; Melanoma/*epidemiology ; Mosquito Vectors/virology ; Seasons ; Serbia/epidemiology ; Temperature ; West Nile Fever/*epidemiology ; West Nile virus ; Yugoslavia/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma.}, }
@article {pmid31938884, year = {2020}, author = {Larios, E and González, EJ and Rosen, PC and Pate, A and Holm, P}, title = {Population projections of an endangered cactus suggest little impact of climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {192}, number = {2}, pages = {439-448}, pmid = {31938884}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {P16AC01027//National Park Service/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Cactaceae ; *Climate Change ; Population Dynamics ; Population Forecast ; Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Population projections coupled with downscaled climate projections are a powerful tool that allows predicting future population dynamics of vulnerable plants in the face of a changing climate. Traditional approaches used to predict the vulnerability of plants to climate change (e.g. species distribution models) fail to mechanistically describe the basis of a population's dynamics and thus cannot be expected to correctly predict its temporal trends. In this study, we used a 23-year demographic dataset of the acuña cactus, an endangered species, to predict its population dynamics to the end of the century. We used integral projection models to describe its vital rates and population dynamics in relation to plant volume and key climatic variables. We used the resulting climate-driven IPM along with climatic projections to predict the population growth rates from 1991 to 2099. We found the average population growth rate of this population between 1991 and 2013 to be 0.70 (95% CI 0.61-0.79). This result confirms that the population of acuña cactus has been declining and that this decline is due to demographic structure and climate conditions. However, the projection model also predicts that, up to 2080, the population will remain relatively stable mainly due to the survival of its existing adult individuals. Notwithstanding, the long-term viability of the populations can only be achieved through the recruitment of new individuals.}, }
@article {pmid31938529, year = {2019}, author = {Steinacker, C and Beierkuhnlein, C and Jaeschke, A}, title = {Assessing the exposure of forest habitat types to projected climate change-Implications for Bavarian protected areas.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {24}, pages = {14417-14429}, pmid = {31938529}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {AIM: Due to their longevity and structure, forest ecosystems are particularly affected by climate change with consequences for their biodiversity, functioning, and services to mankind. In the European Union (EU), natural and seminatural forests are protected by the Habitats Directive and the Natura 2000 network. This study aimed to assess the exposure of three legally defined forest habitat types to climate change, namely (a) Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes, and ravines (9180*), (b) bog woodlands (91D0*), and (c) alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (91E0*). We analyzed possible changes in their Bavarian distribution, including their potential future coverage by Natura 2000 sites. We hypothesized that protected areas (PAs) with larger elevational ranges will remain suitable for the forests as they allow for altitudinal distribution shifts.<br><br>METHODS: To estimate changes in range size and coverage by PAs, we combined correlative species distribution models (SDMs) with spatial analyses. Ensembles of SDM-algorithms were applied to two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the HadGEM2-ES model for the period 2061-2080.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results revealed that bog woodlands experience the highest range losses (>2/3) and lowest PA coverage (max. 15% of sites with suitable conditions). Tilio-Acerion forests exhibit opposing trends depending on the scenario, while alluvial forests are less exposed to climatic changes. As expected, the impacts of climate change are more pronounced under the "business as usual" scenario (RCP8.5). Additionally, PAs in flat landscapes are more likely to lose environmental suitability for currently established forest habitat types.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Based on these findings, we advocate the expansion of the Natura 2000 network particularly in consideration of elevational gradients, connectivity, and projected climatic suitability. Nonclimatic stressors on forest ecosystems, especially bog woodlands, should be decreased and climate change mitigation efforts enhanced. We recommend transferring the approach to other habitat types and regions.}, }
@article {pmid31938482, year = {2019}, author = {Qui-Minet, ZN and Coudret, J and Davoult, D and Grall, J and Mendez-Sandin, M and Cariou, T and Martin, S}, title = {Combined effects of global climate change and nutrient enrichment on the physiology of three temperate maerl species.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {24}, pages = {13787-13807}, pmid = {31938482}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Made up of calcareous coralline algae, maerl beds play a major role as ecosystem engineers in coastal areas throughout the world. They undergo strong anthropogenic pressures, which may threaten their survival. The aim of this study was to gain insight into the future of maerl beds in the context of global and local changes. We examined the effects of rising temperatures (+3°C) and ocean acidification (-0.3 pH units) according to temperature and pH projections (i.e., the RCP 8.5 scenario), and nutrient (N and P) availability on three temperate maerl species (Lithothamnion corallioides, Phymatolithon calcareum, and Lithophyllum incrustans) in the laboratory in winter and summer conditions. Physiological rates of primary production, respiration, and calcification were measured on all three species in each treatment and season. The physiological response of maerl to global climate change was species-specific and influenced by seawater nutrient concentrations. Future temperature-pH scenario enhanced maximal gross primary production rates in P. calcareum in winter and in L. corallioides in both seasons. Nevertheless, both species suffered an impairment of light harvesting and photoprotective mechanisms in winter. Calcification rates at ambient light intensity were negatively affected by the future temperature-pH scenario in winter, with net dissolution observed in the dark in L. corallioides and P. calcareum under low nutrient concentrations. Nutrient enrichment avoided dissolution under future scenarios in winter and had a positive effect on L. incrustans calcification rate in the dark in summer. In winter conditions, maximal calcification rates were enhanced by the future temperature-pH scenario on the three species, but P. calcareum suffered inhibition at high irradiances. In summer conditions, the maximal calcification rate dropped in L. corallioides under the future global climate change scenario, with a potential negative impact on CaCO3 budget for maerl beds in the Bay of Brest where this species is dominant. Our results highlight how local changes in nutrient availability or irradiance levels impact the response of maerl species to global climate change and thus point out how it is important to consider other abiotic parameters in order to develop management policies capable to increase the resilience of maerl beds under the future global climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid31937881, year = {2020}, author = {Schulz, S and Darehshouri, S and Hassanzadeh, E and Tajrishy, M and Schüth, C}, title = {Climate change or irrigated agriculture - what drives the water level decline of Lake Urmia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {236}, pmid = {31937881}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {57156376//Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst/International ; }, abstract = {Lake Urmia is one of the largest hypersaline lakes on earth with a unique biodiversity. Over the past two decades the lake water level declined dramatically, threatening the functionality of the lake's ecosystems. There is a controversial debate about the reasons for this decline, with either mismanagement of the water resources, or climatic changes assumed to be the main cause. In this study we quantified the water budget components of Lake Urmia and analyzed their temporal evolution and interplay over the last five decades. With this we can show that variations of Lake Urmia's water level during the analyzed period were mainly triggered by climatic changes. However, under the current climatic conditions agricultural water extraction volumes are significant compared to the remaining surface water inflow volumes. Changes in agricultural water withdrawal would have a significant impact on the lake volume and could either stabilize the lake, or lead to its complete collapse.}, }
@article {pmid31934624, year = {2020}, author = {Yan, Z and Wu, B and Li, T and Collins, M and Clark, R and Zhou, T and Murphy, J and Tan, G}, title = {Eastward shift and extension of ENSO-induced tropical precipitation anomalies under global warming.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {eaax4177}, pmid = {31934624}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {During El Niño events, increased precipitation occurs over the equatorial central eastern Pacific, corresponding to enhanced convective heating that modulates global climate by exciting atmospheric teleconnections. These precipitation anomalies are projected to shift and extend eastward in response to global warming. We show that this predicted change is caused by narrowing of the meridional span of the underlying El Niño-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that leads to intensification of the meridional gradient of the SST anomalies, strengthening boundary-layer moisture convergence over the equatorial eastern Pacific, and enhancing local positive precipitation anomalies. The eastward shift and extension of these anomalies also intensify and extend eastward negative precipitation anomalies over the tropical western North Pacific, by strengthening equatorward advection of low mean moist enthalpy. Changes in El Niño-induced tropical precipitation anomalies suggest that, under global warming, El Niño events decay faster after their peak phase, thus shortening their duration.}, }
@article {pmid31932433, year = {2020}, author = {Roche, KR and Müller-Itten, M and Dralle, DN and Bolster, D and Müller, MF}, title = {Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {4}, pages = {1935-1940}, pmid = {31932433}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Armed Conflicts/*economics ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Economic Development/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Factors ; Violence/*economics ; Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {A growing empirical literature associates climate anomalies with increased risk of violent conflict. This association has been portrayed as a bellwether of future societal instability as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are predicted to increase. This paper investigates the theoretical foundation of this claim. A seminal microeconomic model of opportunity costs-a mechanism often thought to drive climate-conflict relationships-is extended by considering realistic changes in the distribution of climate-dependent agricultural income. Results advise caution in using empirical associations between short-run climate anomalies and conflicts to predict the effect of sustained shifts in climate regimes: Although war occurs in bad years, conflict may decrease if agents expect more frequent bad years. Theory suggests a nonmonotonic relation between climate variability and conflict that emerges as agents adapt and adjust their behavior to the new income distribution. We identify 3 measurable statistics of the income distribution that are each unambiguously associated with conflict likelihood. Jointly, these statistics offer a unique signature to distinguish opportunity costs from competing mechanisms that may relate climate anomalies to conflict.}, }
@article {pmid31932430, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, X and Luo, J and Yuan, W and Lin, CJ and Wang, F and Liu, C and Wang, G and Feng, X}, title = {Global warming accelerates uptake of atmospheric mercury in regions experiencing glacier retreat.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {117}, number = {4}, pages = {2049-2055}, pmid = {31932430}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Ice Cover/*chemistry ; Mercury/*analysis ; Plants/chemistry/metabolism ; Soil Pollutants/analysis/metabolism ; Tibet ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis/metabolism ; }, abstract = {As global climate continues to warm, melting of glaciers releases a large quantity of mercury (Hg) originally locked in ice into the atmosphere and downstream ecosystems. Here, we show an opposite process that captures atmospheric Hg through glacier-to-vegetation succession. Our study using stable isotope techniques at 3 succession sites on the Tibetan Plateau reveals that evolving vegetation serves as an active "pump" to take up gaseous elemental mercury (Hg[0]) from the atmosphere. The accelerated uptake enriches the Hg pool size in glacier-retreated areas by a factor of ∼10 compared with the original pool size in the glacier. Through an assessment of Hg source-sink relationship observed in documented glacier-retreated areas in the world (7 sites of tundra/steppe succession and 5 sites of forest succession), we estimate that 400 to 600 Mg of Hg has been accumulated in glacier-retreated areas (5‰ of the global land surface) since the Little Ice Age (∼1850). By 2100, an additional ∼300 Mg of Hg will be sequestered from the atmosphere in glacier-retreated regions globally, which is ∼3 times the total Hg mass loss by meltwater efflux (∼95 Mg) in alpine and subpolar glacier regions. The recapturing of atmospheric Hg by vegetation in glacier-retreated areas is not accounted for in current global Hg models. Similar processes are likely to occur in other regions that experience increased vegetation due to climate or land use changes, which need to be considered in the assessment of global Hg cycling.}, }
@article {pmid31932144, year = {2020}, author = {Yu, P and Xu, R and Abramson, MJ and Li, S and Guo, Y}, title = {Bushfires in Australia: a serious health emergency under climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {e7-e8}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30267-0}, pmid = {31932144}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Australia ; *Emergencies ; *Environmental Health ; *Wildfires ; }, }
@article {pmid31931907, year = {2019}, author = {Butler, CD and Hanigan, IC}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change and health in the Global South.}, journal = {The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {1243-1252}, doi = {10.5588/ijtld.19.0267}, pmid = {31931907}, issn = {1815-7920}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; *Poverty ; }, abstract = {This paper explores evidence relevant to the hypothesis that human-generated climate change (global warming) is already, and will increasingly, add to the existing burden of disadvantage experienced by populations in low-income countries, the 'Global South'. Well recognised health manifestations of global warming include from heatwaves and other extreme weather events, changes to infectious disease patterns, and undernutrition, arising from higher food prices, reduced food availability and reduced nutrient concentrations of many foods. These effects have been called 'primary' and 'secondary'. Although these manifestations will have effects globally, their biggest impact on health is and will be upon poor and vulnerable populations in low-income settings. Also well recognised, manual labourers are increasingly vulnerable from excessive heat and humidity. There is less recognition that climate change interacts with social and political determinants of health, contributing to 'tertiary' health consequences including conflict, forced migration and famine. In turn, these effects may deepen poverty traps in the Global South. Human-generated climate change is principally caused by the policies and lifestyles of populations in high-income countries (the Global North). The recent recognition by the British government that climate change is an emergency is encouraging, and may help motivate the widespread global behavioural changes that are needed to reduce the many risks from global warming, including to the people of the South.}, }
@article {pmid31931734, year = {2020}, author = {Nah, K and Bede-Fazekas, &#xc1; and Trájer, AJ and Wu, J}, title = {The potential impact of climate change on the transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Hungary.}, journal = {BMC infectious diseases}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {34}, pmid = {31931734}, issn = {1471-2334}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Encephalitis Viruses, Tick-Borne ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/*epidemiology/*transmission/virology ; Endemic Diseases ; Humans ; Hungary/epidemiology ; Incidence ; Ixodes/physiology/*virology ; Larva/virology ; Models, Theoretical ; Nymph/virology ; Prevalence ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Impact of climate change on tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle in a given region depends on how the region-specific climate change patterns influence tick population development processes and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) transmission dynamics involving both systemic and co-feeding transmission routes. Predicting the transmission risk of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with projected climate conditions is essential for planning public health interventions including vaccination programs to mitigate the TBE incidence in the inhabitants and travelers. We have previously developed and validated a mathematical model for retroactive analysis of weather fluctuation on TBE prevalence in Hungary, and we aim to show in this research that this model provides an effective tool for projecting TBEV transmission risk in the enzootic cycle.<br><br>METHODS: Using the established model of TBEV transmission and the climate predictions of the Vas county in western Hungary in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, we quantify the risk of TBEV transmission using a series of summative indices - the basic reproduction number, the duration of infestation, the stage-specific tick densities, and the accumulated (tick) infections due to co-feeding transmission. We also measure the significance of co-feeding transmission by observing the cumulative number of new transmissions through the non-systemic transmission route.<br><br>RESULTS: The transmission potential and the risk in the study site are expected to increase along with the increase of the temperature in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. This increase will be facilitated by the expected extension of the tick questing season and the increase of the numbers of susceptible ticks (larval and nymphal) and the number of infected nymphal ticks co-feeding on the same hosts, leading to compounded increase of infections through the non-systemic transmission.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The developed mathematical model provides an effective tool for predicting TBE prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle, by integrating climate projection with emerging knowledge about the region-specific tick ecological and pathogen enzootic processes (through model parametrization fitting to historical data). Model projects increasing co-feeding transmission and prevalence of TBEV in a recognized TBE endemic region, so human risk of TBEV infection is likely increasing unless public health interventions are enhanced.}, }
@article {pmid31931200, year = {2020}, author = {Cong, J and Gao, C and Han, D and Li, Y and Wang, G}, title = {Stability of the permafrost peatlands carbon pool under climate change and wildfires during the last 150 years in the northern Great Khingan Mountains, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {712}, number = {}, pages = {136476}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136476}, pmid = {31931200}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Peatlands store one-third of the total global soil carbon (C.) despite covering only 3-4% of the global land surface. Most peatlands are distributed in mid-high latitude regions and are even in permafrost regions, are sensitive to climate change and are disturbed by wildfire. Although several studies have focused on the impact of historical climate change and regional human activities on the C. accumulation process in these peatlands, the impact of these factors on the stability of the C. pool remains poorly understood. Here, based on the [210]Pb age-depth model, we investigated the historical variations of C. stability during the last 150 years for five typical peatlands in the northern Great Khingan Mountains (Northeast China), an area located in a permafrost region that is sensitive to climate change and to wildfires, which have clearly increased due to regional human activities. The results showed that low C. accumulation rates (CARs) and weakly C. stability in studied peatlands before 1900. While, the increasing anthropogenic wildfire frequency and the residual products (e.g. pyrogenic carbon) increased the CARs and C. stability in peatlands from 1900 to 1980. The mean July temperature is the most important climate factor for peatlands C. stability. After 1980, due to the low wildfire frequencies influenced by human policies, increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation not only increased the CARs but also markedly increased the C. stability of the peatlands C. pool in the northern Great Khingan Mountains, especially after 2000.}, }
@article {pmid31930962, year = {2020}, author = {Bhandari, D and Bi, P and Sherchand, JB and Dhimal, M and Hanson-Easey, S}, title = {Climate change and infectious disease research in Nepal: Are the available prerequisites supportive enough to researchers?.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {204}, number = {}, pages = {105337}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2020.105337}, pmid = {31930962}, issn = {1873-6254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biomedical Research ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology ; Humans ; Nepal ; Public Health ; Research Personnel ; }, abstract = {Although Nepal has been identified as a country highly vulnerable to adverse health and socioeconomic impacts arising from climate change, extant research on climate sensitive infectious diseases has yet to develop the evidence base to adequately address these threats. In this opinion paper we identify and characterise basic requirements that are hindering the progress of climate change and infectious disease research in Nepal. Our opinion is that immediate attention should be given to strengthening Nepal's public health surveillance system, promoting inter-sectoral collaboration, improving public health capacity, and enhancing community engagement in disease surveillance. Moreover, we advocate for greater technical support of public health researchers, and data sharing among data custodians and epidemiologists/researchers, to generate salient evidence to guide relevant public health policy formulation aimed at addressing the impacts of climate change on human health in Nepal. International studies on climate variability and infectious diseases have clearly demonstrated that climate sensitive diseases, namely vector-borne and food/water-borne diseases, are sensitive to climate variation and climate change. This research has driven the development and implementation of climate-based early warning systems for preventing potential outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases across many European and African countries. Similarly, we postulate that Nepal would greatly benefit from a climate-based early warning system, which would assist in identification or prediction of conditions suitable for disease emergence and facilitate a timely response to reduce mortality and morbidity during epidemics.}, }
@article {pmid31929187, year = {2020}, author = {Pacheco, SE}, title = {Catastrophic effects of climate change on children's health start before birth.}, journal = {The Journal of clinical investigation}, volume = {130}, number = {2}, pages = {562-564}, pmid = {31929187}, issn = {1558-8238}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Maternal Exposure/*adverse effects ; *Parturition ; Pregnancy ; }, }
@article {pmid31927281, year = {2020}, author = {Payen, S and Falconer, S and Carlson, B and Yang, W and Ledgard, S}, title = {Eutrophication and climate change impacts of a case study of New Zealand beef to the European market.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {710}, number = {}, pages = {136120}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136120}, pmid = {31927281}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Dairying ; Europe ; Eutrophication ; New Zealand ; *Red Meat ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Beef production in the Lake Taupō region of New Zealand (NZ) is regulated for nitrogen (N) leaching. The objectives of this study were to 1) evaluate the implications of nitrogen emission limitations on eutrophication and climate change impacts of NZ beef through its life cycle to a European market and uniquely link it to 2) estimation of the reduction in these impacts that can be funded by the consumer's willingness to pay (WTP) a premium for a low environmental-impact product.<br><br>METHOD: The cradle-to-market Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of NZ beef on the European market included beef production on farms, meat processing, packaging and transport stages. Various beef production systems in the Lake Taup&#x14d; region were modelled: farm systems with and without regulated N leaching limits in place (using N fertiliser inputs of 0 and 100&#xa0;kg&#xa0;N/ha/year respectively) using suckler beef or beef derived from surplus calves from a dairy farm. The FARMAX model was used to model farm productivity and profitability under these various scenarios, whereas the OVERSEER&#xae; model was used to model field/farm emissions (N, phosphorus (P)) and the NZ greenhouse gas (GHG) Inventory model was used to estimate total GHG emissions. Eutrophication and climate change impacts of NZ beef to the European market were calculated using recent regionalised LCA indicators. We estimated freshwater and marine eutrophication impacts of European beef using published N emissions to water and air. We estimated the European consumer's WTP for beef with positive environmental attributes based on a meta-regression analysis based on 21 published studies and compared farmer's profit for the farm system scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: When using common P-driven eutrophication indicators, the farms using 100&#xa0;kg fertiliser-N/ha/year appeared to have a lower freshwater eutrophication impact than farms using no N fertiliser, which is in contradiction with the local freshwater policy for N regulations. When the contribution of both N and P were accounted for, the farms using no N fertiliser had the lowest estimated impact. Comparison with published environmental footprint of beef from Europe showed lower climate change and eutrophication impacts for NZ beef, thus showing potential positive environmental attributes for NZ beef. The European consumer's WTP (32% price premium) for such a beef product with low environmental impacts could offset the cost to farmers for implementing the reduction of N emissions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Bridging the gap between local freshwater policy and LCA indicators starts by considering both P and N emissions and impacts. Combining an environmental LCA with an economic analysis revealed that the consumer willingness to pay could compensate for the environmental cost of protecting the lake that currently only the farmers are bearing.}, }
@article {pmid31926410, year = {2020}, author = {Rasmus, S and Turunen, M and Luomaranta, A and Kivinen, S and Jylhä, K and Räihä, J}, title = {Climate change and reindeer management in Finland: Co-analysis of practitioner knowledge and meteorological data for better adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {710}, number = {}, pages = {136229}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136229}, pmid = {31926410}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Finland ; *Meteorology ; *Reindeer ; Seasons ; Snow ; }, abstract = {We studied interannual variability and changes over time in selected climate indices in the reindeer management area (RMA) in northern Finland. We present together the knowledge possessed by reindeer herders with information from meteorological measurements over three decades. The practitioner knowledge was gathered via a survey questionnaire addressing herder observations of long-term changes (approximately during the past 30 years) in climatic conditions and their impacts on herding during the four seasons. A set of temperature-, precipitation- and snow-related indices relevant for herding within the RMA was derived from spatially interpolated daily meteorological data (1981-2010). Climatic changes detected based on the measurement data were mainly consistent with earlier studies, and practitioner knowledge was generally in line with the meteorological data. The herders had experienced the largest number of changes during the winter, and the smallest number of changes during the summer. The herders reported various impacts of changing seasonal weather on reindeer condition and behavior, and on herding practices. Adaptation to the changing conditions requires adoption of various coping strategies by the herders in their everyday work, continuous development of professional techniques and practices, as well as support received from the governance of reindeer management. We conclude that holistic understanding of the impacts of climate change and adaptation to changes in the future requires simultaneous analyses of data from different sources, more research co-defined with local practitioners, and co-planned governance solutions. The approach presented in this work can ease the dialogue between the local practitioners, researchers and policy makers.}, }
@article {pmid31925853, year = {2020}, author = {Laidre, KL and Atkinson, S and Regehr, EV and Stern, HL and Born, EW and Wiig, &#xd8; and Lunn, NJ and Dyck, M}, title = {Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {e02071}, pmid = {31925853}, issn = {1939-5582}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Ice Cover ; Pregnancy ; *Ursidae ; }, abstract = {Climate change has broad ecological implications for species that rely on sensitive habitats. For some top predators, loss of habitat is expected to lead to cascading behavioral, nutritional, and reproductive changes that ultimately accelerate population declines. In the case of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), declining Arctic sea ice reduces access to prey and lengthens seasonal fasting periods. We used a novel combination of physical capture, biopsy darting, and visual aerial observation data to project reproductive performance for polar bears by linking sea ice loss to changes in habitat use, body condition (i.e., fatness), and cub production. Satellite telemetry data from 43 (1991-1997) and 38 (2009-2015) adult female polar bears in the Baffin Bay subpopulation showed that bears now spend an additional 30 d on land (90 d in total) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s, a change closely correlated with changes in spring sea ice breakup and fall sea ice formation. Body condition declined for all sex, age, and reproductive classes and was positively correlated with sea ice availability in the current and previous year. Furthermore, cub litter size was positively correlated with maternal condition and spring breakup date (i.e., later breakup leading to larger litters), and negatively correlated with the duration of the ice-free period (i.e., longer ice-free periods leading to smaller litters). Based on these relationships, we projected reproductive performance three polar bear generations into the future (approximately 35 yr). Results indicate that two-cub litters, previously the norm, could largely disappear from Baffin Bay as sea ice loss continues. Our findings demonstrate how concurrent analysis of multiple data types collected over long periods from polar bears can provide a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. This information is needed for long-term conservation planning, which includes quantitative harvest risk assessments that incorporate estimated or assumed trends in future environmental carrying capacity.}, }
@article {pmid31925690, year = {2020}, author = {Sarkar, MSK and Begum, RA and Pereira, JJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change on oil palm production in Malaysia.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {9}, pages = {9760-9770}, pmid = {31925690}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Malaysia ; Palm Oil ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Studies reveal that climate change (CC) has higher negative impacts on agricultural production than positive impacts. Therefore, this article attempts to explore the impacts of CC on oil palm production in Malaysia and provides mitigation and adaptation strategies towards reducing such impacts. The multiple regression analysis is applied to assess the impacts of CC on oil palm production by using time series data in the period of 1980 to 2010. A negative and significant relationship is found between annual average temperature and oil palm production. If temperature rises by 1 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C, production of oil palm can decrease from a range of 10 to 41%. This article has also found a negative impact of sea level rise (SLR) on oil palm production. Findings reveal that if areas under oil palm production decrease by 2%, 4%, and 8% due to SLR of 0.5, 1, and 2 m, oil palm production can decrease by 1.98%, 3.96%, and 7.92%, respectively, indicating that CC has a significant impact on the reduction of oil palm production in Malaysia, ultimately affecting the sustainability of oil palm sector in Malaysia. Finally, this study suggests to practice appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies, including promotion and development of climate resilient varieties, soil and water conservation, afforestation, insurance and other risk transfer mechanisms, emission reduction technology, protection of coastal flooding for reducing the impacts of CC on oil palm production.}, }
@article {pmid31924524, year = {2020}, author = {Hackett, F and Got, T and Kitching, GT and MacQueen, K and Cohen, A}, title = {Training Canadian doctors for the health challenges of climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {e2-e3}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30242-6}, pmid = {31924524}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Education, Medical ; *Physicians ; }, }
@article {pmid31923278, year = {2020}, author = {Wilson, TJB and Cooley, SR and Tai, TC and Cheung, WWL and Tyedmers, PH}, title = {Potential socioeconomic impacts from ocean acidification and climate change effects on Atlantic Canadian fisheries.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {e0226544}, pmid = {31923278}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Atlantic Ocean ; Biophysical Phenomena ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Models, Theoretical ; Seawater/*chemistry ; *Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Ocean acidification is an emerging consequence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The full extent of the biological impacts are currently not entirely defined. However, it is expected that invertebrate species that rely on the mineral calcium carbonate will be directly affected. Despite the limited understanding of the full extent of potential impacts and responses there is a need to identify potential pathways for human societies to be affected by ocean acidification. Research on these social implications is a small but developing field. This research contributes to this field by using an impact assessment framework, informed by a biophysical model of future species distributions, to investigate potential impacts facing Atlantic Canadian society from potential changes in shellfish fisheries driven by ocean acidification and climate change. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are expected to see declines in resource accessibility but are relatively socially insulated from these changes. Conversely, Prince Edward Island, along with Newfoundland and Labrador are more socially vulnerable to potential losses in fisheries, but are expected to experience relatively minor net changes in access.}, }
@article {pmid31922141, year = {2019}, author = {Ghosh, S and Mukhopadhyay, J and Chakraborty, A}, title = {Clay Mineral and Geochemical Proxies for Intense Climate Change in the Permian Gondwana Rock Record from Eastern India.}, journal = {Research (Washington, D.C.)}, volume = {2019}, number = {}, pages = {8974075}, pmid = {31922141}, issn = {2639-5274}, abstract = {The clay mineral assemblages and geochemical compositions of the Permian Talchir and Barakar mudstones of the Raniganj basin, India, have been used to interpret terrestrial paleoclimate. The Talchir Formation presents unequivocal evidences of the Permian global glacial climate, and the overlying Barakar Formation with braided fluvial deposits immediately follows the glacial amelioration stage to a humid warm climate. Sediments unaffected by burial diagenesis and originated from a similar source under contrasting climates are ideal for developing proxies for substantial climate shift. Illite (28.4-63.8%), illite/smectite (0-58.6%, 40-80% illite), chlorite (0-53.9%), and chlorite/smectite (5.6-29.8%) constitute the clay mineral assemblage in the Talchir Formation whereas illite (5.3-78.2%), illite/smectite (trace-34.1%, mostly 60-90% illite), and kaolinite (36.1-86.8%) dominate the clay mineral assemblage in the Barakar Formation. The Talchir mudrocks are enriched in mobile elements and depleted in alumina w.r.t. PAAS, have relatively higher K2O/Al2O3 ratios (~0.3), high ICV (1.12-1.28), and lower CIA values (52.6-65.1) compared to those of the younger Barakar mudstones. The Barakar mudstones are depleted in mobile elements w.r.t. PAAS, have relatively low ICV (0.33-0.62) and K2O/Al2O3 values (0.11-0.16), and higher CIA values (72.9-88.2). Textural, mineralogical immaturity, and rock fragments of different components of the basement seen in the Talchir sandstones show these sediments being a first-cycle sedimentary deposit. The distinctive clay mineral assemblage and major oxide composition of the Talchir mudrocks attest to a unique low intensity chemical weathering in cold arid climate. Significant presence of kaolinite as well as distinctive geochemical characters of the Barakar mudrocks marks a shift in the paleoclimate from cold arid to humid. This climatic shift is further supported by the proportion and composition of illite/smectite across the formations. The relative proportion of chlorite and kaolinite and composition of illite/smectite therefore closely corroborate the significant climate shift, and such proxies, therefore, are useful indicators of climate extremes in the geological record.}, }
@article {pmid31921733, year = {2019}, author = {Jessel, S and Sawyer, S and Hernández, D}, title = {Energy, Poverty, and Health in Climate Change: A Comprehensive Review of an Emerging Literature.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {357}, pmid = {31921733}, issn = {2296-2565}, support = {P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Household energy is increasingly vital for maintaining good health. Unaffordable and inadequate household energy presents adverse consequences that are amplified by poverty and a changing climate. To date, the connections between energy, socioeconomic disadvantage, and well-being are generally underappreciated, and household energy connection with climate change is under-researched. Building on the energy insecurity framework, this review explores literature related to household energy, poverty, and health in order to highlight the disproportionate burdens borne by vulnerable populations in adequately meeting household energy needs. This paper is based on a comprehensive review of books, peer-reviewed articles, and reports published between 1990 and 2019, identified via databases including JSTOR and PubMed. A total of 406 publications were selected as having potential for full review, 203 received full review, and 162 were included in this paper on the basis of set inclusion criteria. From the literature review, we created an original heuristic model that describes energy insecurity as either acute or chronic, and we further explore the mediators and pathways that link energy insecurity to health. In the discussion, we posit that the extant literature does not sufficiently consider that vulnerable communities often experience energy insecurity bundled with other hardships. We also discuss energy, poverty, and health through the lens of climate change, making the criticism that most research on household energy does not consider climate change. This evidence is important for enhancing research in this field and developing programmatic and policy interventions as they pertain to energy access, affordability, and health, with special emphasis on vulnerable populations, climate change, and social inequality.}, }
@article {pmid31919925, year = {2020}, author = {Fabri-Ruiz, S and Danis, B and Navarro, N and Koubbi, P and Laffont, R and Saucède, T}, title = {Benthic ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {2161-2180}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14988}, pmid = {31919925}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {36//French Polar Institute/ ; 9//French Polar Institute/ ; //Belgian Science Policy Office/ ; }, abstract = {The Southern Ocean (SO) is among the regions on Earth that are undergoing regionally the fastest environmental changes. The unique ecological features of its marine life make it particularly vulnerable to the multiple effects of climate change. A network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has started to be implemented in the SO to protect marine ecosystems. However, considering future predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the relevance of current, static, MPAs may be questioned under future scenarios. In this context, the ecoregionalization approach can prove promising in identifying well-delimited regions of common species composition and environmental settings. These so-called ecoregions are expected to show similar biotic responses to environmental changes and can be used to define priority areas for the designation of new MPAs and the update of their current delimitation. In the present work, a benthic ecoregionalization of the entire SO is proposed for the first time based on abiotic environmental parameters and the distribution of echinoid fauna, a diversified and common member of Antarctic benthic ecosystems. A novel two-step approach was developed combining species distribution modeling with Random Forest and Gaussian Mixture modeling from species probabilities to define current ecoregions and predict future ecoregions under IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The ecological representativity of current and proposed MPAs of the SO is discussed with regard to the modeled benthic ecoregions. In all, 12 benthic ecoregions were determined under present conditions, they are representative of major biogeographic patterns already described. Our results show that the most dramatic changes can be expected along the Antarctic Peninsula, in East Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic islands under both IPCC scenarios. Our results advocate for a dynamic definition of MPAs, they also argue for improving the representativity of Antarctic ecoregions in proposed MPAs and support current proposals of Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources for the creation of Antarctic MPAs.}, }
@article {pmid31919817, year = {2020}, author = {Nasir, IR and Rasul, F and Ahmad, A and Asghar, HN and Hoogenboom, G}, title = {Climate change impacts and adaptations for fine, coarse, and hybrid rice using CERES-Rice.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {9}, pages = {9454-9464}, pmid = {31919817}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Oryza ; Pakistan ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has become a threatening issue for major field crops of Pakistan, especially rice. A 2 years' (2014 and 2015) field trial was conducted on fine, coarse, and hybrid rice at Research Area, Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad following the split-plot design. Data of growth, yield, and yield components were collected to calibrate and evaluate the CERES-Rice model under Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT). Two cultivars of each type of fine, coarse, and hybrid rice were transplanted with interval of fortnight from May to September during 2014 and 2015. The model was calibrated with non-stressed sowing data during the year 2014 and evaluated with the data of 2015. Climate change scenarios were generated for mid-century (2040-2069) under representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) using different general circulation models (GCMs) (baseline, cool dry, hot dry, cool wet, hot wet, and middle) were using different General Circulation Models (GCMs). CERES-Rice calibration and evaluation results were quite good to simulate impacts of climate change and to formulate adaptations during 2040-2069 (mid-century). Simulations of all GCMs showed an average increase of 3 °C in average temperature as compared to baseline (1980-2010). Likewise, there would be an average increase of 107.6 mm in rainfall than baseline. The future rise in temperature will reduced the paddy yield by 10.33% in fine, 18-54% in coarse and 24-64% in hybrid rice for mid-century under RCP8.5. To nullified deleterious effects of climate change, some agronomic and genetics adaptation strategies were evaluated with CERES-rice during mid-century. Paddy yield of fine rice was increased by 15% in cool dry and 5% in hot dry GCM. Paddy yield of coarse rice was improved by 15% and 9% under cool dry and hot dry climatic conditions, respectively, with adaptations. For hybrid rice, paddy yield was enhanced by 15% and 0.3% with cool wet and hot dry climatic conditions, respectively. Hot dry climatic conditions were the most threatening for rice crop in rice producing areas of Punjab, Pakistan.}, }
@article {pmid31918185, year = {2020}, author = {Bove, G and Becker, A and Sweeney, B and Vousdoukas, M and Kulp, S}, title = {A method for regional estimation of climate change exposure of coastal infrastructure: Case of USVI and the influence of digital elevation models on assessments.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {710}, number = {}, pages = {136162}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136162}, pmid = {31918185}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This study tests the impacts of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data on an exposure assessment methodology developed to quantify flooding of coastal infrastructure from storms and sea level rise on a regional scale. The approach is piloted on the United States Virgin Islands (USVI) for a one-hundred-year storm event in 2050 under the IPCC's 8.5 emission scenario (RCP 8,5).<br><br>METHOD: Flooding of individual infrastructure was tested against three different digital elevation models using a GIS-based coastal infrastructure database created specifically for the project using aerial images. Inundation for extreme sea levels is based on dynamic simulations using Lisflood-ACC (LFP).<br><br>RESULTS: The model indicates transport and utility infrastructure in the USVI are considerably exposed to sea level rise and modeled storm impacts from climate change. Prediction of flood extent was improved with a neural network processed SRTM, versus publicly available SRTM (~30&#x202f;m) seamless C-band DEM but both SRTM based models underestimate flooding compared to LIDAR DEM. The modeled scenario, although conservative, showed significant flood exposure to a large number of access roads to facilities, 113/176 transportation related buildings, and 29/66 electric utility and water treatment buildings including six electric power transformers and six waste water treatment clarifiers.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The method bridges a gap between large-scale non-specific flood assessments and single-facility detailed assessments and can be used to efficiently quantify and prioritize parcels and large structures in need of further assessment for regions that lack detailed data to assess climate exposure to sea level rise and flooding caused by waves. The method should prove particularly useful for assessment of Small Island Developing State regions that lack LIDAR data, such as the Caribbean.}, }
@article {pmid31916265, year = {2020}, author = {Eguiluz-Gracia, I and Mathioudakis, AG and Bartel, S and Vijverberg, SJH and Fuertes, E and Comberiati, P and Cai, YS and Tomazic, PV and Diamant, Z and Vestbo, J and Galan, C and Hoffmann, B}, title = {The need for clean air: The way air pollution and climate change affect allergic rhinitis and asthma.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {75}, number = {9}, pages = {2170-2184}, doi = {10.1111/all.14177}, pmid = {31916265}, issn = {1398-9995}, support = {MR/L01341X/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Adult ; *Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Air Pollution, Indoor/adverse effects ; Allergens ; *Asthma/epidemiology/etiology ; Child ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Rhinitis, Allergic/epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {Air pollution and climate change have a significant impact on human health and well-being and contribute to the onset and aggravation of allergic rhinitis and asthma among other chronic respiratory diseases. In Westernized countries, households have experienced a process of increasing insulation and individuals tend to spend most of their time indoors. These sequelae implicate a high exposure to indoor allergens (house dust mites, pets, molds, etc), tobacco smoke, and other pollutants, which have an impact on respiratory health. Outdoor air pollution derived from traffic and other human activities not only has a direct negative effect on human health but also enhances the allergenicity of some plants and contributes to global warming. Climate change modifies the availability and distribution of plant- and fungal-derived allergens and increases the frequency of extreme climate events. This review summarizes the effects of indoor air pollution, outdoor air pollution, and subsequent climate change on asthma and allergic rhinitis in children and adults and addresses the policy adjustments and lifestyle changes required to mitigate their deleterious effects.}, }
@article {pmid31913276, year = {2020}, author = {Yamaguchi, M and Chan, JCL and Moon, IJ and Yoshida, K and Mizuta, R}, title = {Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {47}, pmid = {31913276}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Slow-moving tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause heavy rain because of their duration of influence. Combined with expected increase in rain rates associated with TCs in a warmer climate, there is growing interest in TC translation speed in the past and future. Here we present that a slowdown trend of the translation speed is not simulated for the period 1951-2011 based on historical model simulations. We also find that the annual-mean translation speed could increase under global warming. Although previous studies show large uncertainties in the future projections of TC characteristics, our model simulations show that the average TC translation speed at higher latitudes becomes smaller in a warmer climate, but the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes increases. Since the translation speed is much larger in the extratropics, the increase in the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes compensates the reduction of the translation speed there, leading to a global mean increase in TC translation speed.}, }
@article {pmid31912954, year = {2020}, author = {Bastiaansen, R and Doelman, A and Eppinga, MB and Rietkerk, M}, title = {The effect of climate change on the resilience of ecosystems with adaptive spatial pattern formation.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {414-429}, pmid = {31912954}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {657.014.002//Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {In a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self-organised) spatial patterns - typically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self-organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre-emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy.}, }
@article {pmid31912657, year = {2020}, author = {Long, KL and Prothero, DR and Syverson, VJP}, title = {How do small birds evolve in response to climate change? Data from the long-term record at La Brea tar pits.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {249-261}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12426}, pmid = {31912657}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Birds/*anatomy &amp; histology ; California ; *Climate Change ; Fossils/*anatomy &amp; histology ; }, abstract = {Biology textbooks describe the small changes in the beaks of the Galápagos finches as exemplars of how birds evolve in response to environmental changes. However, recent studies of the abundant fossil birds at Rancho La Brea find no evidence of evolutionary responses to the dramatic climate changes of the glacial-interglacial cycle over the past 35 000 years: none of the large birds exhibit any change in body size or limb proportions, even during the last glacial maximum approximately 18 000-20 000 years ago, when the southern California chaparral was replaced by snowy coniferous forests. However, these are all large birds with large ranges and broad habitat preferences, capable of living in many different environments. Perhaps the smaller birds at La Brea, which have smaller home ranges and narrower habitats, might respond to climate more like Galápagos finches. The only 3 common small birds at La Brea are the western meadowlark, the yellow-billed magpie and the raven. In this study, we demonstrate that these birds also show complete stasis over the last glacial-interglacial cycle, with no statistically significant changes between dated pits. Recent research suggests that the small-scale changes over short timescales seen in the Galápagos finches are merely fluctuations around a stable morphology, and rarely lead to long-term accumulation of changes or speciation. Instead, the prevalence of stasis supports the view that long-term directional changes in morphology are quite rare. While directional changes in morphology occur frequently over short (<1 ka) timescales, in the long term such changes only rarely remain stable for long enough to appear in the fossil record.}, }
@article {pmid31912388, year = {2020}, author = {Huang, L and Chen, K and Zhou, M}, title = {Climate change and carbon sink: a bibliometric analysis.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {8740-8758}, pmid = {31912388}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {71903133//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71973100//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71573179//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Australia ; *Bibliometrics ; Canada ; *Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; }, abstract = {In recent years, climate change and carbon sinks have been widely studied by the academic community, and relevant research results have emerged in abundance. In this paper, a scientometric analysis of 747 academic works published between 1991 and 2018 related to climate change and carbon sinks is presented to characterize the intellectual landscape by identifying and revealing the basic characteristics, research power, intellectual base, research topic evolution, and research hotspots in this field. The results show that ① the number of publications in this field has increased rapidly and the field has become increasingly interdisciplinary; ② the most productive authors and institutions in this subject area are in the USA, China, Canada, Australia, and European countries, and the cooperation between these researchers is closer than other researchers in the field; ③ 11 of the 747 papers analyzed in this study have played a key role in the evolution of the field; and ④ in this paper, we divide research hotspots into three decade-long phases (1991-1999, 2000-2010, and 2011-present). Drought problems have attracted more and more attention from scholars. In the end, given the current trend of the studies, we conclude a list of research potentials of climate change and carbon sinks in the future. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of climate change and carbon sink research to better understand the global trends and directions that have emerged in this field over the past 28 years, which can also provide reference for future research in this field.}, }
@article {pmid31909813, year = {2020}, author = {Pareek, A and Dhankher, OP and Foyer, CH}, title = {Mitigating the impact of climate change on plant productivity and ecosystem sustainability.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {71}, number = {2}, pages = {451-456}, pmid = {31909813}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; }, }
@article {pmid31909393, year = {2020}, author = {Shapiro, LT and Gater, DR and Espinel, Z and Kossin, JP and Galea, S and Shultz, JM}, title = {Preparing individuals with spinal cord injury for extreme storms in the era of climate change.}, journal = {EClinicalMedicine}, volume = {18}, number = {}, pages = {100232}, pmid = {31909393}, issn = {2589-5370}, }
@article {pmid31909268, year = {2020}, author = {Portilla Cabrera, CV and Selvaraj, JJ}, title = {Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {e03101}, pmid = {31909268}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses are arboviruses predominantly transmitted to humans through the bite of the female mosquito Aedes aegypti. Currently, the vector represents a potential epidemiological risk in several Latin American and Pacific countries. However, little is known about the geographical distribution and bioclimatic suitability of this mosquito in the projected climate change scenarios in Colombia. Using a species distribution model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) based on presence-only records obtained from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), land elevation obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), we produced environmental suitability maps of this mosquito vector for present and future geographic distribution. The future distribution were constructed based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the years 2050 and 2070, projected according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the current conditions, Colombia has ~140,612.8 square km of areas with the possible presence of the vector; however, for the future, this will be reduced by more than 30%. For the future conditions, the suitable areas for A. aegypti decreased compared to the present, mainly for the year 2070 under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, however, the probability of mosquito occurrence increases in some departments of Colombia. Areas susceptible to the presence of A. aegypti are affected by climate change. The Caribbean and Andean regions have a high probability of mosquito distribution; therefore, control and epidemiological surveillance are required in these areas. The results can serve as an input to define preventive and control measures, especially in areas with a higher risk of contracting the virus.}, }
@article {pmid31908681, year = {2019}, author = {Singh, J and Schädler, M and Demetrio, W and Brown, GG and Eisenhauer, N}, title = {Climate change effects on earthworms - a review.}, journal = {Soil organisms}, volume = {91}, number = {3}, pages = {114-138}, pmid = {31908681}, issn = {1864-6417}, support = {677232/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Climate change can have a plethora of effects on organisms above and below the ground in terrestrial ecosystems. Given the tremendous biodiversity in the soil and the many ecosystem functions governed by soil organisms, the drivers of soil biodiversity have received increasing attention. Various climatic factors like temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, as well as extreme climate events like drought and flood have been shown to alter the composition and functioning of communities in the soil. Earthworms are important ecosystem engineers in the soils of temperate and tropical climates and play crucial roles for many ecosystem services, including decomposition, nutrient cycling, and crop yield. Here, we review the published literature on climate change effects on earthworm communities and activity. In general, we find highly species- and ecological group-specific responses to climate change, which are likely to result in altered earthworm community composition in future ecosystems. Earthworm activity, abundance, and biomass tend to increase with increasing temperature at sufficiently high soil water content, while climate extremes like drought and flooding have deleterious effects. Changing climate conditions may facilitate the invasion of earthworms at higher latitudes and altitudes, while dryer and warmer conditions may limit earthworm performance in other regions of the world. The present summary of available information provides a first baseline for predictions of future earthworm distribution. It also reveals the shortage of studies on interacting effects of multiple global change effects on earthworms, such as potential context-dependent effects of climate change at different soil pollution levels and across ecosystem types.}, }
@article {pmid31907724, year = {2020}, author = {Naod, E and Addisu Legesse, S and Tegegne, F}, title = {Livestock diversification prospects for climate change adaptation in Dangila district, Ethiopia.}, journal = {Tropical animal health and production}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {1435-1446}, pmid = {31907724}, issn = {1573-7438}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agriculture ; *Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Ethiopia ; Family Characteristics ; *Farms ; *Livestock ; *Models, Statistical ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to increase weather variability and incidences of extreme events, which will have an impact on livelihoods and wellbeing. This study was intended to assess the role of livestock diversification in minimizing climate change adverse impacts on livelihood assets in Dangila district, Ethiopia. A random sampling technique was used, and 107 sample households were selected. Primary data were collected through field visit and interview, whereas secondary data were collected from the district agricultural office and meteorological stations. To analyze the data, descriptive statistics, correlation and multiple linear regressions were used for testing the hypotheses. Accordingly, the results revealed that weather shocks affected livelihood assets negatively and significantly (β = - .157, p < 0.05) than other shocks. There has been a significant positive interaction effect (β = .197, p < 0.05) between adaptive capacity and weather shock which implies that a household's adaptive capacity (through livestock diversification) counteracts the adverse effects of weather shocks on livelihood assets. Cattle population size has decreased by 19.8% from 2008 to 2017, which infers that reductions in rainfall amount and variation drive the downward trend in cattle number. To conclude, the efforts, which were achieved in terms of sustainable adaptation practices that enhance the resilience of household's livelihood assets, were not adequate. Therefore, to further enhance households' adaptive capacity, improvement in livestock diversification through the provision of a package of livestock species and access to credit for youths were recommended.}, }
@article {pmid31905572, year = {2020}, author = {Li, J and Ma, X and Zhang, C}, title = {Predicting the spatiotemporal variation in soil wind erosion across Central Asia in response to climate change in the 21st century.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {709}, number = {}, pages = {136060}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136060}, pmid = {31905572}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Wind erosion is an important environmental issue in Central Asia (CA), which includes Xinjiang, China (XJ-China), and the five CA states of the former Soviet Union (CAS5). Future climate changes could accelerate wind erosion in arid and semiarid areas and negatively impact local soil health and productivity. Based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) climate model, we simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil wind erosion from 1986 to 2099 in CA using the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ) model. Our analysis indicated that the annual soil wind erosion modulus during the prediction period (2006-2099) increased compared with that in the reference period (1986-2005), especially in the 2030s (18.71%) and 2050s (18.85%) under RCP4.5. Spring and winter soil wind erosion will be the major contributors to increased annual wind erosion. We predicted that spring soil wind erosion will increase by 10.34% (RCP4.5) to 10.71% (RCP8.5) and that winter soil wind erosion will increase by 23.32% (RCP4.5) to 33.74% (RCP8.5) in the late 21st century. Annual soil wind erosion will increase in the northwest of CA, but decrease in the Karakum Desert, Kyzylkum Desert and Taklimakan Desert. Soil wind erosion varies under different plant functional types. By the late 21st century, the soil wind erosion modulus in grassland, irrigated cropland and rainfed cropland will increase by 62 t/km[2]/a (RCP4.5) to 412 t/km[2]/a (RCP8.5), 27 t/km[2]/a (RCP4.5) to 88 t/km[2]/a (RCP8.5) and 141 t/km[2]/a (RCP4.5) to 237 t/km[2]/a (RCP8.5), respectively. Our study indicates high risks of soil wind erosion in northwestern CA, and ecological engineering measures such as nature based solutions including ecological barriers should be developed to prevent soil loss in central and western Kazakhstan, where future warming will bring severe stress.}, }
@article {pmid31904625, year = {2020}, author = {Joshi, M and Varkey, B}, title = {Editorial: Timely topical reviews on climate change, indoor air pollution, coalworkers' pneumoconiosis, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.}, journal = {Current opinion in pulmonary medicine}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {113-115}, doi = {10.1097/MCP.0000000000000661}, pmid = {31904625}, issn = {1531-6971}, mesh = {Air Pollution, Indoor/prevention &amp; control ; Climate Change ; Humans ; *Lung Diseases/epidemiology/etiology/therapy ; Occupational Health ; Patient Care Management/*methods ; *Public Health/methods/standards/trends ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid31904588, year = {2020}, author = {Casadevall, A}, title = {Climate change brings the specter of new infectious diseases.}, journal = {The Journal of clinical investigation}, volume = {130}, number = {2}, pages = {553-555}, pmid = {31904588}, issn = {1558-8238}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/microbiology ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid31904587, year = {2020}, author = {Ahima, RS}, title = {Global warming threatens human thermoregulation and survival.}, journal = {The Journal of clinical investigation}, volume = {130}, number = {2}, pages = {559-561}, pmid = {31904587}, issn = {1558-8238}, support = {P30 DK072488/DK/NIDDK NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Body Temperature Regulation ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid31904584, year = {2020}, author = {Dietz, WH}, title = {Climate change and malnutrition: we need to act now.}, journal = {The Journal of clinical investigation}, volume = {130}, number = {2}, pages = {556-558}, pmid = {31904584}, issn = {1558-8238}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Asia/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*economics ; Humans ; *Malnutrition/economics/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid31902445, year = {2020}, author = {Graham, H and de Bell, S and Hanley, N and Jarvis, S and White, PCL}, title = {Re: Letter to the Editor of Public Health in response to 'Willingness to pay for policies to reduce future deaths from climate change: evidence from a British survey'.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {179}, number = {}, pages = {197}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2019.11.004}, pmid = {31902445}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Policy ; *Public Health ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid31902079, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, W and Li, Y and Li, Z and Wei, X and Ren, T and Liu, J and Zhu, Y}, title = {Impacts of climate change, population growth, and urbanization on future population exposure to long-term temperature change during the warm season in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {8481-8491}, pmid = {31902079}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {19XNB017//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; 19XNB017//Research Funds of Renmin University of China/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hot Temperature ; Population Growth ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Urbanization/trends ; }, abstract = {Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures in the twenty-first century and is likely to intensify population exposure to heat during the warm season and, as a result, increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths. While earlier studies of heat exposure and related health impacts generally focused on the acute effects of short-term exposure indicated by high daily temperature or several days of very hot weather, recent research has suggested that small changes in seasonal average temperature over a long period of time is likely to pose significant health risk as well. Using downscaled climate projections under three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios, high-spatial-resolution population data, and the latest population projections by the United Nations, we aim at projecting future changes in long-term population exposure to summer heat across China in the mid- and late-twenty-first century resulting from global climate change. As the impacts of population growth are often overlooked in projecting future changes in heat exposure, we estimated changes in population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter over two future 20-year time periods and compared them with changes in temperature only. Our analysis shows that, nationally, population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter is projected to increase by 2.2 °C relative to the current situation in the 2050s and by 2.5 °C in the 2070s, as the result of climate change and population growth. Despite the foreseeable population stabilization in China, changes in population-weighted temperature are projected to be higher than changes in temperature itself for the majority of the 33 provinces (ranging from 0.02 °C to 1.27 °C, or 1% to 126% higher in the 2050s and from 0.02 °C to 1.16 °C, or 1% to 73% higher in the 2070s), with the largest differences mainly occurring in Western China. The impact of urbanization is projected to be relatively insignificant. Our findings provide evidence of possible underestimation of future changes in long-term exposure to summer heat if the effect of population growth is not factored in.}, }
@article {pmid31900770, year = {2020}, author = {Yu, TK and Lavallee, JP and Di Giusto, B and Chang, IC and Yu, TY}, title = {Risk perception and response toward climate change for higher education students in Taiwan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {20}, pages = {24749-24759}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-07450-7}, pmid = {31900770}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Students ; Taiwan ; Universities ; }, abstract = {The effects of climate change have already begun to threaten biological diversity and human societies, and these effects will continue to grow over time. To face the challenges related to mitigation and adaptation will require an educated and motivated citizenry. From the perspective of green education, providing knowledge related to climate change and promoting pro-environmental behaviors is imperative. In this study, we assess current levels of knowledge, risk perception and types of pro-environmental behaviors. We administered a questionnaire to 1118 university students in Taiwan evaluating climate change knowledge (15 items), risk perception (23 items), and attitudes toward behavioral change (33 items). Factor analyses were conducted to identify the underlying latent variables for risk perception and obstacles to behavioral change, and ANOVA tests were performed to identify significant associations between three different levels of climate change knowledge and responses to the risk perception and obstacles-to-change items. We found that higher levels of knowledge significantly predicted greater perceptions of risk related to biodiversity threats and increased public costs. In terms of behavior, students with lower levels of knowledge were significantly more likely to find uncertainties related to climate change to be a greater obstacle to engaging in pro-environmental behaviors. Higher levels of knowledge clearly allow individuals to better assess the threats posed by climate change and reduces the perceived level of uncertainty related to climate change and the impact of pro-environmental behaviors. Our results suggest that Taiwan's efforts to implement climate change related information in the public schools and in the university system have been effective and that such efforts should be broadened to reach the public as a whole.}, }
@article {pmid31900668, year = {2020}, author = {Ramachandran, RM and Roy, PS and Chakravarthi, V and Joshi, PK and Sanjay, J}, title = {Land use and climate change impacts on distribution of plant species of conservation value in Eastern Ghats, India: a simulation study.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {2}, pages = {86}, pmid = {31900668}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; Humans ; India ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Effective monitoring of the current status of species distributions and predicting future distributions are very important for conservation practices at the ecosystem and species levels. The human population, land use, and climate are important factors that influence the distributions of species. Even though future simulations have many uncertainties, such studies can provide a means of obtaining species distributions, range shifts, and food production and help mitigation and adaptation planning. Here, we simulate the population, land use/land cover and species distributions in the Eastern Ghats, India. A MaxEnt species distribution model was used to simulate the potential habitats of a group of endemic (28 species found in this region) and rare, endangered, and threatened (RET) (22 species found in this region) plant species on the basis of IPCC AR5 scenarios developed for 2050 and 2070. Simulations of populations in 2050 indicate that they will increase at a rate of 1.12% relative to the base year, 2011. These increases in population create a demand for more land for settlement and food productions. Land use land cover (LULC) simulations show an increase in built-up land from 3665.00 km[2] in 2015 to 3989.56 km[2] by 2050. There is a minor increase of 0.04% in the area under agriculture in 2050 compared with 2015. On the other hand, the habitat simulations show that the combined effects of climate and land use change have a greater influence on the decline of potential distributions of species. Climate change and the prevailing rate of LULC change will reduce the extents of the habitats of endemic and RET species (~ 60% and ~ 40%, respectively). The Eastern Ghats have become extensively fragmented due to human activities and have become a hotspot of endemic and RET species loss. Climate and LULC change will enhance the species loss and ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid31896210, year = {2020}, author = {Tegegne, G and Melesse, AM and Worqlul, AW}, title = {Development of multi-model ensemble approach for enhanced assessment of impacts of climate change on climate extremes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {704}, number = {}, pages = {135357}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135357}, pmid = {31896210}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The severity and frequency of climate extremes will change in the future owing to global warming. This can severely impact the natural environment. Therefore, it is common practice to project climate extremes with a global climate model (GCM) in order to quantify and manage the associated risks. Several studies have demonstrated that a multi-model ensemble approach increases the reliability of predictions by exploiting the strengths and discounting the weaknesses of each climate simulator. However, the available multi-model averaging approaches exhibit significant drawbacks as they are not capable of extracting different climate extreme characteristics from the climate models. This study proposes a new approach that combines multiple models for projecting climate extremes by accounting for different extreme indices in the climate model performance weighting scheme. The capability of this method was evaluated with respect to reliability ensemble averaging (REA) and Taylor diagram-based GCM skill approaches for reproducing wet and dry precipitation events. The proposed multi-model averaging approach outperformed the available approaches in reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) by 5% and 54% in the wet and dry precipitation conditions, respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that incorporating the different precipitation extremes in a multi-model combination approach could enhance the assessment of climate change impacts on the climate extremes. The climate change impacts on the extreme events, based on the proposed multi-model ensembles, is thus assessed using the standardized precipitation indexes of 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month durations. In general, the results exhibited that the frequency of wet events increases, whereas that of drought events decreases.}, }
@article {pmid31892174, year = {2019}, author = {Springer, RA and Elliott, SJ}, title = {"There's Not Really Much Consideration Given to the Effect of the Climate on NCDs"-Exploration of Knowledge and Attitudes of Health Professionals on a Climate Change-NCD Connection in Barbados.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {31892174}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; Barbados/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Personnel/*psychology ; Health Priorities/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Noncommunicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Despite widespread awareness of the rise of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and the growing threat of climate change, little research has explored future health outcomes that will occur at the intersection of these challenges. Ten Barbadian health professionals were interviewed to assess their knowledge of health risks of climate change as it relates to NCDs in Barbados as a case study of a small island state at risk. There is widespread concern among health professionals about the current and future prevalence of non-communicable diseases among Barbadians. There is less concern about the future burden of NCDs in the context of a changing climate, largely because of a lack of knowledge among the majority of the health experts interviewed. Those knowledgeable about potential connections noted the difficulty that climate change would pose to the prevention and management of NCDs, given the impacts of climate stressors to food security, the built environment, and physiological and psychosocial health impacts. Lack of awareness among health professionals of the risk climate change poses to NCD prevalence and impact is reflective of the country's health priorities that fail to recognize the risk of climate change. We recommend efforts to disseminate information about climate change to stakeholders in the health sector to increase awareness.}, }
@article {pmid31890976, year = {2019}, author = {Asare-Nuamah, P and Botchway, E}, title = {Comparing smallholder farmers' climate change perception with climate data: the case of Adansi North District of Ghana.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {5}, number = {12}, pages = {e03065}, pmid = {31890976}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study adopted mixed methods design and employed questionnaire and interview to investigate climate trends and smallholder farmers' perception of climate change as well as the relationship between climate data and farmers' perception, and the determinants of perception in Adansi North District of Ghana. The study randomly and purposively selected 378 respondents and 41 key informants, respectively. Descriptive, inferential, trend and thematic analysis were employed. Results showed that the majority of smallholder farmers have observed increase in intensity (96.8%) and duration (94.7%) of temperature, and delay onset (82.8%) and early cessation (89.2%) of rainfall as well as increase in wind intensity (79.4%). Climate data also revealed rising trends of rainfall, wind speed and temperature. Nevertheless, there was no significant relationship between farmers' perception and climate data. Information from family and friends and government, particularly local institutions and extension service significantly influence farmers' perception. In addition, television and radio were significant predictors of farmers' perception. The study recommends intensification of climate education, mass awareness and capacity development programmes.}, }
@article {pmid31890910, year = {2019}, author = {Hassan, FU and Nawaz, A and Rehman, MS and Ali, MA and Dilshad, SMR and Yang, C}, title = {Prospects of HSP70 as a genetic marker for thermo-tolerance and immuno-modulation in animals under climate change scenario.}, journal = {Animal nutrition (Zhongguo xu mu shou yi xue hui)}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {340-350}, pmid = {31890910}, issn = {2405-6383}, abstract = {Heat stress induced by long periods of high ambient temperature decreases animal productivity, leading to heavy economic losses. This devastating situation for livestock production is even becoming worse under the present climate change scenario. Strategies focused to breed animals with better thermo-tolerance and climatic resilience are keenly sought these days to mitigate impacts of heat stress especially in high input livestock production systems. The 70-kDa heat shock proteins (HSP70) are a protein family known for its potential role in thermo-tolerance and widely considered as cellular thermometers. HSP70 function as molecular chaperons and have major roles in cellular thermotolerance, apoptosis, immune-modulation and heat stress. Expression of HSP70 is controlled by various factors such as, intracellular pH, cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cyclic AMP), protein kinase C and intracellular free calcium, etc. Over expression of HSP70 has been observed under oxidative stress leading to scavenging of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species and protection of pulmonary endothelial barrier against bacterial toxins. Polymorphisms in flanking and promoter regions in HSP70 gene have shown association with heat tolerance, weaning weight, milk production, fertility and disease susceptibility in livestock. This review provides insight into pivotal roles of HSP70 which make it an ideal candidate genetic marker for selection of animals with better climate resilience, immune response and superior performance.}, }
@article {pmid31889271, year = {2020}, author = {Chandio, AA and Magsi, H and Ozturk, I}, title = {Examining the effects of climate change on rice production: case study of Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {7812-7822}, pmid = {31889271}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Economic Development ; *Oryza/chemistry ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {The current empirical study explores the linkage between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, average temperature, cultivated area, consumption of fertilizer, and rice production in Pakistan. For this research, the annual time series data from 1968 to 2014 were used to enhance the validity of the empirical outcomes. The cointegration analysis with the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is applied to explore the effects of climate change on rice production. Additionally, the estimated long-run outcomes are verified by employing fully modified ordinary least squared (FMOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) approaches. The empirical outcomes revealed that the selected important study variables are cointegrated demonstrating the existence of long-run linkages among them. The main fruitful outcomes of this study are that rice production in Pakistan is positively affected by the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in both long-run and short-run.}, }
@article {pmid31889158, year = {2019}, author = {Shukla, R and Agarwal, A and Gornott, C and Sachdeva, K and Joshi, PK}, title = {Farmer typology to understand differentiated climate change adaptation in Himalaya.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {20375}, pmid = {31889158}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Smallholder farmers' responses to the climate-induced agricultural changes are not uniform but rather diverse, as response adaptation strategies are embedded in the heterogonous agronomic, social, economic, and institutional conditions. There is an urgent need to understand the diversity within the farming households, identify the main drivers and understand its relationship with household adaptation strategies. Typology construction provides an efficient method to understand farmer diversity by delineating groups with common characteristics. In the present study, based in the Uttarakhand state of Indian Western Himalayas, five farmer types were identified on the basis of resource endowment and agriculture orientation characteristics. Factor analysis followed by sequential agglomerative hierarchial and K-means clustering was use to delineate farmer types. Examination of adaptation strategies across the identified farmer types revealed that mostly contrasting and type-specific bundle of strategies are adopted by farmers to ensure livelihood security. Our findings show that strategies that incurred high investment, such as infrastructural development, are limited to high resource-endowed farmers. In contrast, the low resourced farmers reported being progressively disengaging with farming as a livelihood option. Our results suggest that the proponents of effective adaptation policies in the Himalayan region need to be cognizant of the nuances within the farming communities to capture the diverse and multiple adaptation needs and constraints of the farming households.}, }
@article {pmid31888648, year = {2019}, author = {Chhetri, BK and Galanis, E and Sobie, S and Brubacher, J and Balshaw, R and Otterstatter, M and Mak, S and Lem, M and Lysyshyn, M and Murdock, T and Fleury, M and Zickfeld, K and Zubel, M and Clarkson, L and Takaro, TK}, title = {Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {116}, pmid = {31888648}, issn = {1476-069X}, support = {NA//Public Health Agency of Canada/International ; }, mesh = {British Columbia/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Incidence ; *Rain ; Seasons ; Waterborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is increasing the number and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Precipitation extremes have been linked to both outbreaks and sporadic cases of waterborne illness. We have previously shown a link between heavy rain and turbidity to population-level risk of sporadic cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in a major Canadian urban population. The risk increased with 30 or more dry days in the 60 days preceding the week of extreme rain. The goal of this study was to investigate the change in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis risk due to climate change, primarily change in extreme precipitation.<br><br>METHODS: Cases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were extracted from a reportable disease system (1997-2009). We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models and projections of the exposure-outcome relationship to estimate future illness (2020-2099). The climate projections are derived from twelve statistically downscaled regional climate models. Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 was used to project precipitation derived from daily gridded weather observation data (~&#x2009;6&#x2009;&#xd7;&#x2009;10&#x2009;km resolution) covering the central of three adjacent watersheds serving metropolitan Vancouver for the 2020s, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s.<br><br>RESULTS: Precipitation is predicted to steadily increase in these watersheds during the wet season (Oct. -Mar.) and decrease in other parts of the year up through the 2080s. More weeks with extreme rain (>90th percentile) are expected. These weeks are predicted to increase the annual rates of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis by approximately 16% by the 2080s corresponding to an increase of 55-136 additional cases per year depending upon the climate model used. The predicted increase in the number of waterborne illness cases are during the wet months. The range in future projections compared to historical monthly case counts typically differed by 10-20% across climate models but the direction of change was consistent for all models.<br><br>DISCUSSION: If new water filtration measures had not been implemented in our study area in 2010-2015, the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis would have been expected to increase with climate change, particularly precipitation changes. In addition to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the frequency and length of wet and dry spells could also affect the risk of waterborne diseases as we observed in the historical period. These findings add to the growing evidence regarding the need to prepare water systems to manage and become resilient to climate change-related health risks.}, }
@article {pmid31887979, year = {2019}, author = {Adekiya, TA and Aruleba, RT and Oyinloye, BE and Okosun, KO and Kappo, AP}, title = {The Effect of Climate Change and the Snail-Schistosome Cycle in Transmission and Bio-Control of Schistosomiasis in Sub-Saharan Africa.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {31887979}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology ; Animals ; Cell Cycle/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Disease Control ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Humans ; Incidence ; Schistosoma haematobium/*physiology ; Schistosomiasis/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Snails/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In the next century, global warming, due to changes in climatic factors, is expected to have an enormous influence on the interactions between pathogens and their hosts. Over the years, the rate at which vector-borne diseases and their transmission dynamics modify and develop has been shown to be highly dependent to a certain extent on changes in temperature and geographical distribution. Schistosomiasis has been recognized as a tropical and neglected vector-borne disease whose rate of infection has been predicted to be elevated worldwide, especially in sub-Saharan Africa; the region currently with the highest proportion of people at risk, due to changes in climate. This review not only suggests the need to develop an efficient and effective model that will predict Schistosoma spp. population dynamics but seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of several current control strategies. The design of a framework model to predict and accommodate the future incidence of schistosomiasis in human population dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is proposed. The impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission as well as the distribution of several freshwater snails responsible for the transmission of Schistosoma parasites in the region is also reviewed. Lastly, this article advocates for modelling several control mechanisms for schistosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa so as to tackle the re-infection of the disease, even after treating infected people with praziquantel, the first-line treatment drug for schistosomiasis.}, }
@article {pmid31887529, year = {2020}, author = {Miller, CB and Parsons, MB and Jamieson, HE and Ardakani, OH and Gregory, BRB and Galloway, JM}, title = {Influence of late-Holocene climate change on the solid-phase speciation and long-term stability of arsenic in sub-Arctic lake sediments.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {709}, number = {}, pages = {136115}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136115}, pmid = {31887529}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Sediment cores were collected from two lakes in the Courageous Lake Greenstone Belt (CLGB), central Northwest Territories, Canada, to examine the influence of late-Holocene warming on the transport and fate of arsenic (As) in sub-Arctic lakes. In both lakes, allochthonous As-bearing minerals (i.e. arsenopyrite and scorodite) were identified in sediment deposited during times of both regional warming and cooling, suggesting that weathering of bedrock and derived surficial materials provides a continual source of As to lakes of the CLGB. However, maximum porewater As (84 μg·L[-1] and 15 μg·L[-1]) and reactive organic matter (OM; aquatic and terrestrial-derived) concentrations in each lake are coincident with known periods of regional climate warming. It is inferred that increased biological production in surface waters and influx of terrigenous OM led to the release of sedimentary As to porewater through reductive dissolution of As-bearing Fe-(oxy)hydroxides and scorodite during episodes of regional warming. Elevated sedimentary As concentrations (median: 36 mg·kg[-1]; range: 29 to 49 mg·kg[-1]) are observed in sediment coeval with the Holocene Thermal Maximum (ca. 5430 ± 110 to 4070 ± 130 cal. years BP); at these depths, authigenic As-bearing framboidal pyrite is the primary host of As in sediment and the influence of organic matter on the precipitation of As-bearing framboidal pyrite is apparent petrographically. These findings suggest that increased biological productivity and weathering of terrestrial OM associated with climate warming influences redox cycles in the near-surface sediment and enhances the mobility of As in northern lakes. Knowledge generated from this study is relevant for predicting future climate change-driven variations in metal(loid) cycling in aquatic systems and can be used to interpret trends in long-term environmental monitoring data at historical, modern, and future metal mines in northern environments.}, }
@article {pmid31887505, year = {2020}, author = {Zheng, J and Wang, W and Ding, Y and Liu, G and Xing, W and Cao, X and Chen, D}, title = {Assessment of climate change impact on the water footprint in rice production: Historical simulation and future projections at two representative rice cropping sites of China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {709}, number = {}, pages = {136190}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136190}, pmid = {31887505}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Oryza ; Water ; }, abstract = {As one of the most important crops cultivated in China, rice contributes to approximately 28% of total yield. In despite of the substantial production, rice productivity is gravely affected by ongoing climate change and reduction of available water resources. Thus, assessing the responses of rice water consumption and productivity to more pronounced climate change is of great significance to water resources management in terms of relieving the resources shortage and meeting the food demand. In this study, the yield and water resources utilization during 1961-2010 in two typical rice plantation regions of China were evaluated using validated rice model ORYZA2000. Subsequently, their responses to future climate scenarios of 21 century were investigated through driving ORYZA2000 with downscaling climatic projections from GCMs under four RCPs emission scenarios. To quantify the water resources utilization in rice production from multiple perspectives, the water footprint (WF) and three water productivity indices (WPI, WPU and WPET) were integrated for assessing the regional agricultural water stress in this paper. The results revealed that the annual average linear inclining rates of WF in two stations (Kaifeng and Kunshan) were 3.86 m[3]/ t and 2.62 m[3]/ t, respectively. Moreover, compared with the green water footprint (WFg), the blue water footprint (WFb) is projected to significantly increase in future. The water productivity (WP) would decrease in two stations under four RCPs scenarios except that the WPu and WPET of Kunshan under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenario in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Hence, this study provides insights into comprehensively understand the influences of climate change on food security and sheds lights on the regional strategy for future water resource management.}, }
@article {pmid31883492, year = {2020}, author = {Venâncio, C and Ribeiro, R and Lopes, I}, title = {Active emigration from climate change-caused seawater intrusion into freshwater habitats.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {258}, number = {}, pages = {113805}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.113805}, pmid = {31883492}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; Seawater/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Ecological risk assessment associated with seawater intrusions has been supported on the determination of lethal/sublethal effects following standard protocols that force exposure neglecting the ability of mobile organisms to spatially avoid salinized environments. Thus, this work aimed at assessing active emigration from climate change-caused seawater intrusion into freshwater habitats. To specific objectives were delineated: first, to compute median 12-h avoidance conductivities (AC50,12h) for freshwater species, and second, to compare it with literature data (LC50,48 or 96h, EC50,6 or 21d) to assess the relevance of the inclusion of stressor-driven emigration into risk assessment frameworks. Four standard test species, representing a broad range of ecological niches - Daphnia magna, Heterocypris incongruens, Danio rerio and Xenopus laevis - were selected. The salt NaCl was used as a surrogate of natural seawater to create the saline gradient, which was established in a 7-compartment system. At each specific LC50, 48 or 96h, the proportion of avoiders were well above 50%, ranging from 71 to 94%. At each LC50, considering also avoiders, populations would decline by 85-97%. Furthermore, for D. magna and X. laevis it was noticed that at the lowest conductivities eliciting mortality, the avoidance already exceeded 50%. The results showed that the emigration from salinity-disturbed habitats exists and that can even be more sensitive than standard endpoints. Looking solely to standard endpoints involving forced exposure may greatly underestimate the risk of local population extinction, because habitat function can be severely disrupted, with subsequent stressor-driven emigration, before any adverse physiological effects at the organism level. Thus, the present study highlights the need to include non-forced exposure testing into ecological risk assessment, namely of salinity-menaced costal freshwaters.}, }
@article {pmid31883296, year = {2020}, author = {Tørresen, KS and Fykse, H and Rafoss, T and Gerowitt, B}, title = {Autumn growth of three perennial weeds at high latitude benefits from climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {2561-2572}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14976}, pmid = {31883296}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {158934//Research Council of Norway/ ; 299695//Research Council of Norway/ ; //ERA-NET Cofund SusCrop/ ; }, abstract = {In autumn, agricultural perennial weeds prepare for winter and can store reserves into creeping roots or rhizomes. Little is known about influence of climate change in this period. We tested the effect of simulated climate change in autumn on three widespread and noxious perennial weeds, Elymus repens (L.) Gould, Cirsium arvense (L.) Scop. and Sonchus arvensis L. We divided and combined simulated climate change components into elevated CO2 concentration (525 ppm), elevated temperatures (+2-2.5°C), treatments in open-top chambers. In addition, a control in the open-top chamber without any increase in CO2 and temperature, and a field control outside the chambers were included. Two geographically different origins and three pre-growth periods prior to the exposure to climate change factors were included for each species. All species increased leaf area under elevated temperature, close to doubling in E. repens and quadrupling in the dicot species. E. repens kept leaves green later in autumn. C. arvense did not benefit in below-ground growth from more leaf area or leaf dry mass. S. arvensis had low levels of leaf area throughout the experiment and withered earlier than the two other species. Below-ground plant parts of S. arvensis were significantly increased by elevated temperature. Except for root:shoot ratio of C. arvense, the effects of pure elevated CO2 were not significant for any variables compared to the open-top chamber control. There was an additive, but no synergistic, effect of enhanced temperature and CO2 . The length of pre-growth period was highly important for autumn plant growth, while origin had minor effect. We conclude that the small transfer of enhanced above-ground growth into below-ground growth under climate change in autumn does not favour creeping perennial plants per se, but more leaf area may offer more plant biomass to be tackled by chemical or physical weed control.}, }
@article {pmid31883031, year = {2020}, author = {Vulturius, G and André, K and Swartling, &#xc5;G and Brown, C and Rounsevell, M}, title = {Does Climate Change Communication Matter for Individual Engagement with Adaptation? Insights from Forest Owners in Sweden.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {65}, number = {2}, pages = {190-202}, pmid = {31883031}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forestry ; Forests ; Humans ; Problem Solving ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {Natural resource managers urgently need to adapt to climate change, and extension services are increasingly using targeted communication campaigns to promote individual engagement with adaptation. This study compares two groups of Swedish forest owners: 1493 who participated in two climate communication projects by the Swedish Forest Agency, and 909 who were randomly sampled. The study finds statistically significant differences between the two groups in terms of climate change awareness and concern, belief in the urgency to act and intentions to take adaptive measures. Results suggest that the primary effect of the climate chance communication seems to have been on forest owners' subjective risk perceptions and beliefs in their knowledge and ability, which make it more likely that individuals will take adaptive action in the future. The study also finds that experience with extreme events affects people's intentions to take adaptive measures independently from their beliefs that these extremes were caused by climate change. Furthermore, findings also highlight the need for communication research and practice to recognise the impeding role social norms and economic rationales can play for individual adaptation. Future research should make use of longitudinal and qualitative research to assess the effect of deliberation- and solution-orientated communication on people's intentions and actions to adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31882203, year = {2020}, author = {Mattiuzzi, C and Lippi, G}, title = {RE: 'Willingness to pay for policies to reduce future deaths from climate change: evidence from a British survey'.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {179}, number = {}, pages = {195-196}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2019.11.005}, pmid = {31882203}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Death ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Policy ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid31880048, year = {2019}, author = {Walker, J}, title = {Rural health inequities and the impact of climate change.}, journal = {The Australian journal of rural health}, volume = {27}, number = {6}, pages = {583-584}, doi = {10.1111/ajr.12595}, pmid = {31880048}, issn = {1440-1584}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; *Rural Health ; }, }
@article {pmid31879303, year = {2020}, author = {Mikolasch, TA and Stadler, CI}, title = {Our prescription for climate change: reduce and recycle inhalers!.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {70}, number = {690}, pages = {30}, pmid = {31879303}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {*Bronchodilator Agents ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Environmental Pollutants ; Humans ; *Hydrocarbons, Fluorinated ; Nebulizers and Vaporizers/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Practice Patterns, Physicians'/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid31879293, year = {2020}, author = {Adelson, ND}, title = {Mitigating climate change: using the physician's tool of the trade.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {70}, number = {690}, pages = {12-13}, pmid = {31879293}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Physicians ; }, }
@article {pmid31877669, year = {2019}, author = {He, R and Jin, J and Kuang, F and Zhang, C and Guan, T}, title = {Farmers' Risk Cognition, Risk Preferences and Climate Change Adaptive Behavior: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {31877669}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Psychological ; Agriculture/statistics &amp; numerical data ; China ; *Climate Change ; Cognition ; Data Collection ; Decision Making ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Latent Class Analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; Policy ; Records ; Risk ; Rural Population ; }, abstract = {Improving local farmers' climate change adaptive capacity is an important policy issue in rural China. This study investigates farmers' risk cognition, risk preferences and climate change adaptive behavior. Based on unique data from a survey and a paired lottery experiment completed by 240 rural farmers in Chongqing City of China, this paper finds that farmers have a pessimistic risk cognition towards climate change and the typical farmers are risk-averse and loss-averse. Risk cognition and adaptation cognition have significantly positive influences on climate change adaptive behavior, and loss aversion has a significantly positive influence on farmers' adaptation decisions. Loss aversion exerts a positive impact on risk cognition and adaptation cognition, and risk aversion has a positive impact on adaptation cognition. This paper contributes to the emerging literature that relates risk preference in experiments and risk cognition to farmers' climate change adaptive behavior.}, }
@article {pmid31871669, year = {2019}, author = {Xiao, J and Eziz, A and Zhang, H and Wang, Z and Tang, Z and Fang, J}, title = {Responses of four dominant dryland plant species to climate change in the Junggar Basin, northwest China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {23}, pages = {13596-13607}, pmid = {31871669}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {AIM: Dryland ecosystems are exceedingly sensitive to climate change. Desertification induced by both climate changes and human activities seriously threatens dryland vegetation. However, the impact of climate change on distribution of dryland plant species has not been well documented. Here, we studied the potential distribution of four representative dryland plant species (Haloxylon ammodendron, Anabasis aphylla, Calligonum mongolicum, and Populus euphratica) under current and future climate scenarios in a temperate desert region, aiming to improve our understanding of the responses of dryland plant species to climate change and provide guidance for dryland conservation and afforestation.<br><br>LOCATION: Junggar Basin, a large desert region in northwestern China.<br><br>METHODS: Occurrence data of the studied species were collected from an extensive field investigation of 2,516 sampling sites in the Junggar Basin. Ensemble species distribution models using 10 algorithms were developed and used to predict the potential distribution of each studied species under current and future climate scenarios.<br><br>RESULT: Haloxylon ammodendron and A.&#xa0;aphylla were likely to lose most of their current suitable habitats under future climate scenarios, while C.&#xa0;mongolicum and P.&#xa0;euphratica were likely to expand their ranges or remain relatively stationary. Variable importance evaluation showed that the most important climate variables influencing species distribution differed across the studied species. These results may be explained by the different ecophysiological characteristics and adaptation strategies to the environment of the four studied species.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We explored the responses of the representative dryland plant species to climate change in the Junggar Basin in northwestern China. The different changes in suitability of different species imply that policymakers may need to reconsider the selection and combination of the afforestation species used in this area. This study can provide valuable reference for the management and conservation of dryland ecosystems under future climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid31869620, year = {2020}, author = {Sun, C and Liu, Y and Song, H and Li, Q and Cai, Q and Wang, L and Fang, C and Liu, R}, title = {Tree-ring evidence of the impacts of climate change and agricultural cultivation on vegetation coverage in the upper reaches of the Weihe River, northwest China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {707}, number = {}, pages = {136160}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136160}, pmid = {31869620}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Rivers ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Comprehending the characteristics and causes of vegetation coverage in history is of practical significance for studying ecological and environmental changes. As a typical region of the semi-arid and semi-humid climatic zone in northwest China, the upper reaches of the Weihe River have relatively fragile ecological environment. Based on tree-ring width chronologies, the vegetation coverage represented by the normalized difference vegetation index was reconstructed from 1630 to 2006 using a regression model. There were 64 years with high vegetation coverage and 56 years with low vegetation coverage over the past 377 years. At low frequencies, the coverage was relatively higher in the 1650s and from the 1880s to 1890s, while the coverage was lower in the 1720s and from the 1760s to 1770s. While precipitation and temperature had positive and negative influences on the changes of vegetation coverage, respectively, during the past several centuries, the agricultural cultivation played an important role on coverage changes. Along with the land reclamation expansion in history, the forest cover gradually declined, and vegetation coverage decreased. The vegetation coverage was lower when there were more arable lands reclaimed from woodlands. Regardless of the land reclamation policy during the historical period or the current conversion project of cropland to forest, they affected the vegetation coverage by influencing cover ranges of woodland and farmland.}, }
@article {pmid31869607, year = {2020}, author = {Mazorra, J and Sánchez-Jacob, E and de la Sota, C and Fernández, L and Lumbreras, J}, title = {A comprehensive analysis of cooking solutions co-benefits at household level: Healthy lives and well-being, gender and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {707}, number = {}, pages = {135968}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135968}, pmid = {31869607}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Africa, Western ; *Climate Change ; Cooking ; *Family Characteristics ; Humans ; Rural Population ; }, abstract = {Three billion people (>40% of the world's population) lack access to clean cooking solutions, including 2.5 billion people that still rely on the traditional use of biomass for cooking. In urban contexts, the rate of access to clean cooking solutions is normally higher than in rural contexts due to greater availability of these solutions. The relevance of providing access to clean cooking solutions (SDG 7) is linked to several associated co-benefits that contribute to a wide range of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore, this paper shows a comprehensive analysis of multiple co-benefits of a clean cooking solution intervention. Health (SDG 3), gender (SDG 5) and climate change (SDG 13) co-benefits were analysed and compared through a cost-benefit analysis using a comprehensive approach in a case study in the Casamance Natural Subregion, located in Western Africa. The most important co-benefits were related to gender (SDG 5), representing 60-97% of the total economic benefits. Climate change co-benefits (SDG 13) were also relevant, representing 3-40% of the total economic benefits. Health co-benefits (SDG 3) were very limited for this case study, representing <1% of the total economic benefits. Considering these results, implications for urban settings were discussed in the light of the "making the available clean" or "making the clean available" strategies.}, }
@article {pmid31868596, year = {2019}, author = {Cole, J and Desphande, J}, title = {Poultry farming, climate change, and drivers of antimicrobial resistance in India.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {12}, pages = {e494-e495}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30236-0}, pmid = {31868596}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; *Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology ; *Chickens ; *Climate Change ; *Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; India ; }, }
@article {pmid31865588, year = {2020}, author = {Zyoud, SH and Fuchs-Hanusch, D}, title = {Mapping of climate change research in the Arab world: a bibliometric analysis.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {3523-3540}, pmid = {31865588}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Arab World ; Bibliometrics ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; France ; Saudi Arabia ; }, abstract = {The attendant threats of climate change in the Arab world are accelerating at a high pace. The realization of these risks has promoted scientific research activities in climate change (i.e., modeling of climate change effects and development of mitigation and adaptation measures). A bibliometric analysis was desired to trace the status and trends of these research activities with an origin from the Arab world. The aim was to contribute to a better understanding of the scientific knowledge of climate change and its impacts and survey its evolution. Moreover, it is aimed at enabling recommendations for future research activities in this field. The data of this analysis were retrieved from the Scopus database using the most common terms of climate change to search titles, abstracts, and keywords. The collected data, in the form of documents referring to climate change, enabled to extract and further assess different quantitative and qualitative bibliometric indicators. Productivity of countries, sources, and institutions; collaboration figures; impact of published research; and citation rates were being among the assessed indicators. Subsequently, the data were analyzed using visualization maps and clustering techniques to characterize the hot spots and vital topics of research. A total of 2074 documents (1.2% of the total global research output) were retrieved from the Arab world. Saudi Arabia took the leading positions in terms of the number of publications (473 documents; 22.8%), impact of research (Hirsch index (h-index), 48), collected citations (10,573 citations), and number of documents from collaboration (389 documents). The USA was the most collaborated country with the Arab world (344 documents; 17.0%), followed by France (311 documents; 15.0%). The most productive journal was Plos One (42 documents; 2.0%), followed by the Arabian Journal of Geosciences (38 documents; 1.8%). Three institutions from Saudi Arabia were in the forefront in terms of research productivity (King Abdulaziz University, 124 documents; King Saud University, 117 documents; and King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, 102 documents). The vital climate change-related topics which will continue to be active in the future are climate modeling, physiology, genetics, and animals. The present data indicate a committed scientific research progress. Increasing the fund, capacity building, and development of regional experience with climate change-related disasters are key factors to promote the scientific research in this field.}, }
@article {pmid31864007, year = {2020}, author = {López, MS and Santi, MF and Müller, GV and Gómez, AA and Staffolani, C and Pomares, LA}, title = {Climate change communication by the local digital press in northeastern Argentina: An ethical analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {707}, number = {}, pages = {135737}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135737}, pmid = {31864007}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {News articles about Climate Change (CC) represent the level of knowledge of the phenomenon by journalists and the public, as well as the value assigned to problems of ethical and transgenerational nature in a given society. Digital articles related to CC released by media from northeast Argentina were reviewed to study how the local digital press addresses the CC in this region as well as the social representation of the news. An analysis of the content of news articles released in the period January 2016-March 2018 was carried out to identify components that explain their social representation. This study shows that local digital media publish articles about regionally important topics. However, news about CC appear mainly when hydroclimatic events occur. Many of the digital media that release CC information are connected to important social sectors in the region, such as agriculture and economics. A difference between national and local media is that the first ones focus on international events while the latter show the regional reality. Our results also show that no exchange or reciprocity mechanism exists among CC stakeholders, such as journalists, academics and decision-makers. Consequently, building new ways to communicate CC remains a challenge. The media together with scientists, and policy-makers, have a fundamental role in showing the ethical value and importance of caring for Nature and our environment, so to leave the best possible world for future generations.}, }
@article {pmid31863165, year = {2020}, author = {Dantas, BF and Moura, MSB and Pelacani, CR and Angelotti, F and Taura, TA and Oliveira, GM and Bispo, JS and Matias, JR and Silva, FFS and Pritchard, HW and Seal, CE}, title = {Rainfall, not soil temperature, will limit the seed germination of dry forest species with climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {192}, number = {2}, pages = {529-541}, pmid = {31863165}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {MP3 03.12.12.004.00//Embrapa/ ; Edital 15/2014 Proposta 171//CAPES/ ; }, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; *Germination ; Seeds ; Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Drylands are predicted to become more arid and saline due to increasing global temperature and drought. Although species from the Caatinga, a Brazilian tropical dry forest, are tolerant to these conditions, the capacity for germination to withstand extreme soil temperature and water deficit associated with climate change remains to be quantified. We aimed to evaluate how germination will be affected under future climate change scenarios of limited water and increased temperature. Seeds of three species were germinated at different temperatures and osmotic potentials. Thermal time and hydrotime model parameters were established and thresholds for germination calculated. Germination performance in 2055 was predicted, by combining temperature and osmotic/salt stress thresholds, considering soil temperature and moisture following rainfall events. The most pessimistic climate scenario predicts an increase of 3.9 °C in soil temperature and 30% decrease in rainfall. Under this scenario, soil temperature is never lower than the minimum and seldomly higher than maximum temperature thresholds for germination. As long as the soil moisture (0.139 cm[3] cm[3]) requirements are met, germination can be achieved in 1 day. According to the base water potential and soil characteristics, the minimum weekly rainfall for germination is estimated to be 17.5 mm. Currently, the required minimum rainfall occurs in 14 weeks of the year but will be reduced to 4 weeks by 2055. This may not be sufficient for seedling recruitment of some species in the natural environment. Thus, in future climate scenarios, rainfall rather than temperature will be extremely limiting for seed germination.}, }
@article {pmid31862602, year = {2020}, author = {Mathew, MJ and Sautter, B and Ariffin, EH and Menier, D and Ramkumar, M and Siddiqui, NA and Delanoe, H and Del Estal, N and Traoré, K and Gensac, E}, title = {Total vulnerability of the littoral zone to climate change-driven natural hazards in north Brittany, France.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {706}, number = {}, pages = {135963}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135963}, pmid = {31862602}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Current worldwide projections of sea-level rise show a staggering increase in water level of up to 2 m by 2100 owing to global warming exacerbated by anthropogenically induced climate change. While amplified rates of sea-level rise is an immense hazard to coastal communities, storm surges are expected to increase in intensity and frequency making it an equally significant threat to coastal populations. In France, these hazards are not uncommon with records of extreme tempests every thousand years in the Holocene. Despite these recurring devastating events, in the Bay of Saint-Brieuc, Brittany, legislated laws for coastal management do not entirely focus on protecting littoral zones from such calamities. 130,739 people are concentrated in 21 municipalities with major cities located at close proximity to the shoreline with numerous socio-economic activities, which increases the vulnerability of the coastal population and infrastructures; thus, affirming the indispensable need of a thorough vulnerability assessment. Here, we conduct a mechanistic appraisal of the vulnerability of the bay considering thirteen parameters within three governing sub-systems that demonstrate the multidimensional dynamics in these municipalities. In the occasion of an extreme climatic event, our results of total vulnerability show risks in the sub-systems highlighting erosional processes due to augmented hydrodynamics, socio-economic and administrative vulnerabilities associated with anthropogenic development. Eight municipalities of the bay portray moderate to very high vulnerability and the remaining exhibits a lower risk; however, not devoid of high vulnerabilities for certain sub-systems. We posit that a more accurate fit for predicting the total vulnerability of the region can be achieved by exclusively integrating physical-natural and administrative sub-system vulnerabilities. We propose generic but requisite recommendations for Integrated Coastal Zone Management such as surveillance of urban development along the coast, implementation of coastal defense systems and appropriate industrial corridors to attenuate and dispose hazardous refuse.}, }
@article {pmid31862545, year = {2020}, author = {Kanazawa, S}, title = {Does global warming contribute to the obesity epidemic?.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {182}, number = {}, pages = {108962}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.108962}, pmid = {31862545}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Body Mass Index ; Environmental Exposure ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; *Obesity/epidemiology ; Overweight ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Endotherms must expend more energy to digest colder food, so they acquire more calories by eating food at a higher temperature than eating the identical food cold. A recent study shows that ownership of a microwave is associated with a small increase in BMI and obesity. The same logic applies to other substances that endotherms introduce into their bodies, like air. An analysis of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) shows that, net of sex, age, race, education, earnings, neighborhood characteristics, and exercise activities, atmospheric temperature is associated with small but statistically significant increases in BMI, weight, overweight, and obesity. Atmospheric temperature is more strongly associated than most exercise activities, and as strongly associated as age and population density. An average American might reduce weight by 15.1 lbs, BMI by 2.52 (half the difference between normal weight and obesity), and the odds of obesity by 54% by moving from Phoenix, AZ, to Barrow, AK, or, less dramatically, 5.7 lbs in weight, .95 in BMI (a fifth of the difference between normal weight and obesity), and 25% in the odds of obesity by moving mere 150 miles north to Flagstaff, AZ. Global warming under the worst-case scenario might produce an increase of 2.2 lbs in weight, .37 in BMI, and 12% in odds of obesity from 1961 to 2081.}, }
@article {pmid31862433, year = {2020}, author = {Sun, H and He, D and Sui, X and Chen, Y}, title = {Predicting impacts of future climate change and hydropower development towards habitats of native and non-native fishes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {707}, number = {}, pages = {135419}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135419}, pmid = {31862433}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Climate change and hydropower development are two primary stressors affecting riverine ecosystems and both stressors facilitate invasions by non-native species. However, little study has focused on how habitats of native and non-native fishes may be affected by independent or combined impacts of such stressors. Here we used the Jinsha River as an example to predict habitat change and distributional shift of native and non-native fishes with species distribution models. The Jinsha River Basin has nearly 40 cascade dams constructed or planned and located in the Tibetan Plateau, which is sensitive to future climate change. Two climate change scenarios and future hydropower development were combined to produce five scenarios of future changes. Under the impacts of independent extreme climate change or hydropower development, non-native fishes showed greater habitat gain in total, while native fishes shifted their distribution into tributaries and higher elevations, and impacts were stronger in combined scenarios. Habitat overlap between the two groups also increased in future scenarios. Certain fish traits correlated with stressors in habitat change prediction. River basins with hydropower development were shown to face higher risk of non-native fishes invasion under future climate change. As the most biodiverse river basins globally are threatened by hydropower development, our results emphasize the importance of regulating non-native fish introduction in reservoirs. Our approaches are also applicable to other systems globally to better understand how hydropower development and climate change may increase invasion risk, and therefore help conserve native species effectively.}, }
@article {pmid31859820, year = {2019}, author = {Ayala, S and Alvarado, S and Cáceres, D and Zulantay, I and Canals, M}, title = {[Effects of climate change on reproductive number of Chagas disease].}, journal = {Revista medica de Chile}, volume = {147}, number = {6}, pages = {683-692}, doi = {10.4067/S0034-98872019000600683}, pmid = {31859820}, issn = {0717-6163}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide ; Chagas Disease/*epidemiology/transmission ; Chile/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Disease Vectors ; Female ; Geography ; Humans ; Male ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; Risk Factors ; Statistics, Nonparametric ; Temperature ; Triatoma ; Trypanosoma cruzi ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Reproductive number (R0)-maps estimate risk zones of vector-borne diseases and geographical distribution changes under climate change.<br><br>AIM: To map R0 aiming to estimate the epidemiological risk of Chagas disease in Chile, its distribution and possible changes due to the global climate change.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: We used a relationship between R0 and entomological parameters of vectors as function of environmental variables, to map the risk of Chagas disease in Chile, under current and projected future environmental conditions.<br><br>RESULTS: We obtained a geographical R0 estimation of Chagas disease in Chile. The highest R0averages correspond to the Central-Northern regions of Chile. T. cruzi transmission area could increase in the future due to climate changes. Independent of the future condition, both for optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios, the area of potential risk for Chagas disease transmission would increase. The estimated R0 values suggest that, if a control of T. infestans is not maintained, Chagas disease endemic status will persist or increase, independently of the climate change scenarios.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Mapping R0 values is an effective method to assess the risk of Chagas disease. The eventual increase in the transmission area of the disease is worrisome.}, }
@article {pmid31859534, year = {2021}, author = {Trájer, AJ}, title = {The potential impact of climate change on the seasonality of Phlebotomus neglectus, the vector of visceral leishmaniasis in the East Mediterranean region.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {932-950}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2019.1702150}, pmid = {31859534}, issn = {1369-1619}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; Insect Vectors/*physiology ; Leishmaniasis, Visceral/*transmission ; Mediterranean Region ; Models, Theoretical ; Phlebotomus/*physiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Phlebotomus neglectus is one of the most important vectors of visceral leishmaniasis in Southeast Europe and Asia Minor. It was aimed to study the impact of climate change on the seasonality and the range of the species for 2014-2060. In the inland areas of Asia Minor, the Balkan Peninsula and the Carpathian Basin the elongation of the activity season will reach or exceed the two months in the middle of the 21st century compared to the end of the 20th century. The most affected regions are the middle elevations of the mountainous regions and the plains of the northern distribution areas. In some areas of the southern distribution border, the season is expected to shorten. In the Apennine Peninsula, mainly the mountainous areas could be impacted notably by climate change. The results indicate the potential spread of leishmaniasis in Southeast Europe due to the increasing environmental suitability of the region.}, }
@article {pmid31858738, year = {2020}, author = {Swinburn, B}, title = {The Obesity and Climate Change Nexus.}, journal = {Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.)}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {8}, doi = {10.1002/oby.22708}, pmid = {31858738}, issn = {1930-739X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Obesity ; }, }
@article {pmid31856873, year = {2019}, author = {Misseri, G and Ippolito, M and Cortegiani, A}, title = {Global warming "heating up" the ICU through Candida auris infections: the climate changes theory.}, journal = {Critical care (London, England)}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {416}, pmid = {31856873}, issn = {1466-609X}, }
@article {pmid31855485, year = {2020}, author = {Doubleday, A and Errett, NA and Ebi, KL and Hess, JJ}, title = {Indicators to Guide and Monitor Climate Change Adaptation in the US Pacific Northwest.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {110}, number = {2}, pages = {180-188}, pmid = {31855485}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Health Planning ; Health Resources ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; *Local Government ; Northwestern United States ; Public Health/*standards ; United States ; }, abstract = {Objectives. To develop a set of indicators to guide and monitor climate change adaptation in US state and local health departments.Methods. We performed a narrative review of literature on indicators of climate change adaptation and public health service capacity, mapped the findings onto activities grouped by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Ten Essential Services, and drafted potential indicators to discuss with practitioners. We then refined the indicators after key informant interviews with 17 health department officials in the US Pacific Northwest in fall 2018.Results. Informants identified a need for clarity regarding state and local public health's role in climate change adaptation, integration of adaptation into existing programs, and strengthening of communication, partnerships, and response capacity to increase resilience. We propose a set of climate change indicators applicable for state and local health departments.Conclusions. With additional context-specific refinement, the proposed indicators can aid agencies in tracking adaptation efforts. The generalizability, robustness, and relevance of the proposed indicators should be explored in other settings with a broader set of stakeholders.}, }
@article {pmid31852964, year = {2019}, author = {Il Choi, H}, title = {Assessment of Aggregation Frameworks for Composite Indicators in Measuring Flood Vulnerability to Climate Change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {19371}, pmid = {31852964}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The IPCC Third Assessment Report presents a conceptual framework for vulnerability to climate change with the three attribute components of exposure, sensitivity, and coping. Since the vulnerability assessments have been conducted mainly by the composite indicators aggregated from the IPCC's components, it is necessary to assess aggregation frameworks for constructing the composite indicators that have an influence on vulnerability assessment outcomes. This study therefore investigates the robustness of assessment outcomes for flood vulnerability to climate change through a comparative analysis of the six vulnerability indicators aggregated from the IPCC's components by the conventional aggregation frameworks. The comparative analysis has been illustrated through both the possible combinations of reference values for vulnerability attribute components and a case study on the flood vulnerability assessment to climate change for coastal areas in the Republic of Korea. The study demonstrates that there can be large fluctuations and reversals in ranking orders across the six vulnerability outcomes by different aggregation frameworks. It concludes that for flood vulnerability assessment to climate change in coastal areas, the vulnerability indicator needs to be aggregated by a multiplicative utility function from all the three assessment components with positive elasticity to vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid31851395, year = {2021}, author = {Rühlemann, A and Jordan, JC}, title = {Risk perception and culture: implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {45}, number = {2}, pages = {424-452}, doi = {10.1111/disa.12429}, pmid = {31851395}, issn = {1467-7717}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Cultural Characteristics ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Perceptions of climate change play a critical role in determining the degree to which people are at risk throughout the world. The significance of culture in understanding why people perceive and respond to climate change in particular ways is largely ignored in mainstream climate change adaptation. This paper applies a critical realist approach to examine the sociocultural structures and causal mechanisms for inaction or (in)effective action between at-risk people and the organisations responsible for dealing with climate change. The findings reveal that there are varying context-specific sub-narratives among heterogeneous groups of people at risk and organisations that lead to inaction or (in)effective action in response to climate change, often independent of risk perceptions and with unforeseen consequences for the vulnerabilities of at-risk people. Specifically, sub-narratives may create parallel and/or conflicting climate-related perceptions and respective responses, legitimise unequal resource distribution, and justify the suppression and/or capitalisation of sub-cultural and/or individual risk perceptions.}, }
@article {pmid31851023, year = {2020}, author = {Joshi, M and Goraya, H and Joshi, A and Bartter, T}, title = {Climate change and respiratory diseases: a 2020 perspective.}, journal = {Current opinion in pulmonary medicine}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {119-127}, doi = {10.1097/MCP.0000000000000656}, pmid = {31851023}, issn = {1531-6971}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To present an overview of the impact of climate change upon human respiratory health.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change involves two major types of change. First, there is overall progressive warming. Second, there is increased variability/unpredictability in weather patterns. Both types of change impact negatively upon human respiratory health. Worsening air quality and increased allergens can worsen existing disease. Climate-related changes in allergens and in vectors for infection can cause new disease. Redundant sophisticated studies have projected marked increases in respiratory morbidity and mortality throughout the world as a direct result of climate change. This article summarizes some of those studies.<br><br>SUMMARY: The clarity of our vision with respect to the dramatic impact of climate change upon human respiratory health approaches 20/20. The data represent a mandate for change. Change needs to include international, national, and individual efforts.}, }
@article {pmid31850868, year = {2019}, author = {Mammarella, MC and Grandoni, G}, title = {Resilience actions to counteract the effects of climate change and health emergencies in cities: the role of artificial neural networks.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {392-397}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_19_04_14}, pmid = {31850868}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {Arizona ; Cities ; *City Planning/methods/organization &amp; administration ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Emergencies ; *Environmental Health ; Environmental Monitoring ; Greenhouse Effect ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; *Neural Networks, Computer ; }, abstract = {Both the World Health Organization (WHO) with its 2015 "Climate and Health Country Profile Project" and the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) with its 2018 "Health and Climate Change", agree on the emergency generated by the climate change and concerning health problems. The mitigation strategy suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) against greenhouse gas emissions and their effects on climate change, has not yet yielded the desired results. It is therefore necessary to focus on adaptation strategies, to immediately counter the effects of climate change (CC) on most vulnerable people and environments, by increasing their resilience through local interventions and targeted resilience actions. Coordinated resilience actions are necessary to combat the effects of CC especially in urban areas. Useful tools to manage and optimize resilience actions are artificial neural networks (ANN) in complex and dynamic domains as cities are. The case of ANN applied to a city is presented as an example to increase the climate resilience of health local systems. In the current state of knowledge, ANN prove to be the most advanced and global solution to coordinate and manage a set of resilience actions in urban areas.}, }
@article {pmid31850858, year = {2019}, author = {Ricciardi, W and Marcheggiani, S and Puccinelli, C and Carere, M and Sofia, T and Giuliano, F and Dogliotti, E and Mancini, L and Agrimi, U and Alleva, E and Busani, L and De Castro, P and Gaudi, S and Michelozzi, P and Rezza, G and Testai, E and Vella, S}, title = {Health and Climate Change: science calls for global action.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {323-329}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_19_04_04}, pmid = {31850858}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {Animals ; Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; *Congresses as Topic ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Environmental Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Food Supply/standards ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Italy ; Mental Health ; Publications ; Social Determinants of Health ; Vulnerable Populations ; Water Supply/standards ; Zoonoses ; }, abstract = {Climate changes affect social and environmental health determinants such as clean air, ecosystems health, safe drinking water and safe sufficient food. Globally, people at greatest risk of adverse health effects associated with climate change include children, the elderly and other vulnerable groups. Temperature-related death and illness, extreme events, polluted or stressed ecosystems represent relevant issues raising concern for both health and economic consequences. The aim of the Symposium "Health and Climate Change" (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome 3-5 December 2018) was to promote an inter-sectoral and multidisciplinary approach to estimate and prevent climate change-related events as well as to call the authorities to put in place measures to reduce adverse health effects. At the end of the Symposium the Rome International Charter on Health and Climate Change was presented. It includes a series of actions and recommendations, discussed and shared by all the participants, intended to inform policy makers and all the stakeholders involved in the management of climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid31847858, year = {2019}, author = {Delany-Crowe, T and Marinova, D and Fisher, M and McGreevy, M and Baum, F}, title = {Australian policies on water management and climate change: are they supporting the sustainable development goals and improved health and well-being?.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {68}, pmid = {31847858}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; Health Equity ; Humans ; Social Determinants of Health ; Sustainable Development ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Sustainable management of the natural environment is essential. Continued environmental degradation will lead to worsened health outcomes in countries and across generations. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a framework for viewing the preservation of natural environments and the promotion of health, well-being and health equity as interconnected pursuits. Within the SDG framework the goals of promoting environmental sustainability and human health are unified through attention to the social determinants of health and health equity (SDH/HE). This paper presents findings from a document analysis of all Australian environment sector policies and selected legislation to examine whether and how current approaches support progress toward achieving SDG goals on water, climate change, and marine ecosystems (Goals 6, 13 and 14), and to consider implications for health and health equity.<br><br>RESULTS: Consideration of a broad range of SDH/HE was evident in the analysed documents. Related collaborations between environment and health sectors were identified, but the bulk of proposed actions on SDH/HE were initiated by the environment sector as part of its core business. Strengths of Australian policy in regard to SDGs 6, 13 and 14 are reflected in recognition of the effects of climate change, a strong cohesive approach to marine park protection, and recognition of the need to protect existing water and sanitation systems from future threats. However, climate change strategies focus predominately on resilience, adaptation and heat related health effects, rather than on more comprehensive mitigation policies. The findings emphasise the importance of strengthened cross-sectoral action to address both the drivers and effects of environmental degradation. A lack of policy coherence between jurisdictions was also evident in several areas, compounded by inadequate national guidance, where vague strategies and non-specific devolution of responsibilities are likely to compromise coordination and accountability.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Evidence on planetary health recognises the interconnectedness of environmental and human health and, as such, suggests that ineffective management of climate change and water pose serious risks to both the natural environment and human well-being. To address these risks more effectively, and to achieve the SDGs, our findings indicate that cross-jurisdiction policy coherence and national coordination must be improved. In addition, more action to address global inequities is required, along with more comprehensive approaches to climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid31847373, year = {2019}, author = {Filho, WL and Scheday, S and Boenecke, J and Gogoi, A and Maharaj, A and Korovou, S}, title = {Climate Change, Health and Mosquito-Borne Diseases: Trends and Implications to the Pacific Region.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {24}, pages = {}, pmid = {31847373}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; Chikungunya Fever/*transmission ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Culicidae ; Dengue/*transmission ; Fiji ; Humans ; *Mosquito Vectors ; Pacific Islands ; Public Health ; Zika Virus ; Zika Virus Infection/*transmission ; }, abstract = {Climate change is known to affect Pacific Island nations in a variety of ways. One of them is by increasing the vulnerability of human health induced by various climate change impacts, which pose an additional burden to the already distressed health systems in the region. This paper explores the associations between climate change and human health on the one hand, and outlines some of the health care challenges posed by a changing climate on the other. In particular, it describes the links between climate variations and the emergence of climate-sensitive infectious diseases, such as the mosquito-borne diseases dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The paper also presents a summary of the key findings of the research initiatives Climate Change and Prevalence Study of ZIKA Virus Diseases in Fiji and the findings from the World Mosquito Program as two examples of public health action in the Pacific region.}, }
@article {pmid31846685, year = {2019}, author = {Lippmann, R and Babben, S and Menger, A and Delker, C and Quint, M}, title = {Development of Wild and Cultivated Plants under Global Warming Conditions.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {24}, pages = {R1326-R1338}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.10.016}, pmid = {31846685}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods/*trends ; Climate Change/economics ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics/growth &amp; development ; Droughts ; Germination/genetics ; Global Warming/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Plant Development/genetics ; Seedlings/growth &amp; development ; Seeds/growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Triticum/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Global warming is one of the most detrimental aspects of climate change, affecting plant growth and development across the entire life cycle. This Review explores how different stages of development are influenced by elevated temperature in both wild plants and crops. Starting from seed development and germination, global warming will influence morphological adjustments, termed thermomorphogenesis, and photosynthesis primarily during the vegetative phase, as well as flowering and reproductive development. Where applicable, we distinguish between moderately elevated temperatures that affect all stages of plant development and heat waves that often occur during the reproductive phase when they can have devastating consequences for fruit development. The parallel occurrence of elevated temperature with other abiotic and biotic stressors, particularly the combination of global warming and drought or increased pathogen pressure, will potentiate the challenges for both wild and cultivated plant species. The key components of the molecular networks underlying the physiological processes involved in thermal responses in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana are highlighted. In crops, temperature-sensitive traits relevant for yield are illustrated for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.), representing cultivated species adapted to temperate vs. warm climate zones, respectively. While the fate of wild plants depends on political agendas, plant breeding approaches informed by mechanistic understanding originating in basic science can enable the generation of climate change-resilient crops.}, }
@article {pmid31846164, year = {2020}, author = {Kingsbury, KM and Gillanders, BM and Booth, DJ and Nagelkerken, I}, title = {Trophic niche segregation allows range-extending coral reef fishes to co-exist with temperate species under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {721-733}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14898}, pmid = {31846164}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DP170101722//Australian Research Council/International ; LE120100054//Australian Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Fishes ; }, abstract = {Changing climate is forcing many terrestrial and marine species to extend their ranges poleward to stay within the bounds of their thermal tolerances. However, when such species enter higher latitude ecosystems, they engage in novel interactions with local species, such as altered predator-prey dynamics and competition for food. Here, we evaluate the trophic overlap between range-extending and local fish species along the east coast of temperate Australia, a hotspot for ocean warming and species range extensions. Stable isotope ratios (δ[15] N and δ[13] C) of muscle tissue and stomach content analysis were used to quantify overlap of trophic niche space between vagrant tropical and local temperate fish communities along a 730 km (6°) latitudinal gradient. Our study shows that in recipient temperate ecosystems, sympatric tropical and temperate species do not overlap significantly in their diet-even though they forage on broadly similar prey groups-and are therefore unlikely to compete for trophic niche space. The tropical and temperate species we studied, which are commonly found in shallow-water coastal environments, exhibited moderately broad niche breadths and local-scale dietary plasticity, indicating trophic generalism. We posit that because these species are generalists, they can co-exist under current climate change, facilitating the existence of novel community structures.}, }
@article {pmid31844992, year = {2019}, author = {Hussain, M and Butt, AR and Uzma, F and Ahmed, R and Irshad, S and Rehman, A and Yousaf, B}, title = {A comprehensive review of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation on environmental and natural calamities in Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {1}, pages = {48}, pmid = {31844992}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {(WK2080000103)//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; (2018M632552)//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; (2018FYB0002)//CAS-Young Scientist Award/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture/trends ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Floods ; Forestry ; Forests ; Humans ; Livestock ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {The devastations and damages caused by climate change are apparent across the globe, specifically in the South Asian region where vulnerabilities to climate change among residents are high and climate change adaptation and mitigation awareness are extremely low. Pakistan's low adaptive capacity due to high poverty rate, limited financial resources and shortage of physical resources, and continual extreme climatic events including varying temperature, continual flooding, melting glaciers, saturation of lakes, earthquakes, hurricanes, storms, avalanches, droughts, scarcity of water, pest diseases, human healthcare issues, and seasonal and lifestyle changes have persistently threatened the ecosystem, biodiversity, human communities, animal habitations, forests, lands, and oceans with a potential to cause further damages in the future. The likely effect of climate change on common residents of Pakistan with comparison to the world and their per capita impact of climate change are terribly high with local animal species such as lions, vultures, dolphins, and tortoise facing extinction regardless of generating and contributing diminutively to global GHG emissions. The findings of the review suggested that GHG emissions cause climate change which has impacted agriculture livestock and forestry, weather trends and patterns, food water and energy security, and society of Pakistan. This review is a sectorial evaluation of climate change mitigation and adaption approaches in Pakistan in the aforementioned sectors and its economic costs which were identified to be between 7 to 14 billion USD per annum. The research suggested that governmental interference is essential for sustainable development of the country through strict accountability of resources and regulation implemented in the past for generating state-of-the-art climate policy.}, }
@article {pmid31844515, year = {2019}, author = {Morrison, BD and Heath, K and Greenberg, JA}, title = {Spatial scale affects novel and disappeared climate change projections in Alaska.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {21}, pages = {12026-12044}, pmid = {31844515}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The formation of novel and disappeared climates between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the present is important to consider to understand the expansion and contraction of species niches and distributions, as well as the formation and loss of communities and ecological interactions over time. Our choice in climate data resolution has the potential to complicate predictions of the ecological impacts of climate change, since climate varies from local to global scales and this spatial variation is reflected in climate data. To address this issue, we downscaled LGM and modern (1975-2005) 30-year averaged climate data to 60-m resolution for the entire state of Alaska for 10 different climate variables, and then upsampled each variable to coarser resolutions (60 m to 12 km). We modeled the distributions of novel and disappeared climates to evaluate the locations and fractional area of novel and disappeared climates for each of our climate variables and resolutions. Generally, novel and disappeared climates were located in southern Alaska, although there were cases where some disappeared climates existed within coastal and interior Alaska. Climate resolution affected the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates in three patterns: As the spatial resolution of climate became coarser, the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates (a) increased, (b) decreased, or (c) had no explainable relationship. Overall, we found the use of coarser climate data increased the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates due to decreased environmental variability and removal of climate extremes. Our results reinforce the importance of downscaling coarse climate data and suggest that studies analyzing the effects of climate change on ecosystems may overestimate or underestimate their conclusions when utilizing coarse climate data.}, }
@article {pmid31844397, year = {2019}, author = {Buka, I and Shea, KM}, title = {Global climate change and health in Canadian children.}, journal = {Paediatrics &amp; child health}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {557-558}, doi = {10.1093/pch/pxz157}, pmid = {31844397}, issn = {1205-7088}, abstract = {Climate change is a reality. Numerous expert authorities warn of the critical need to undertake and adapt environmental efforts to protect human health. Climate change is accelerating, and countries in high latitudes, such as Canada, are experiencing climate change more directly and, for some end points, more dramatically than mid- and low-latitude countries. Children are vulnerable to climate change health effects, and physicians and other health care providers need to be ready to identify, manage, and prevent climate change-related health hazards. This practice point highlights specific, climate change-related threats to the health of children and youth, and provides resources for health care providers. Climate challenges and their health impacts on children are described, based on key Canadian reports and scientifically referenced information. Enhanced awareness of the immediate and longer-term health effects of climate change on children allows physicians and other health care providers to counsel families and practice more effectively.}, }
@article {pmid31841912, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, Y and Liang, J and Zeng, G and Tang, W and Lu, Y and Luo, Y and Xing, W and Tang, N and Ye, S and Li, X and Huang, W}, title = {How climate change and eutrophication interact with microplastic pollution and sediment resuspension in shallow lakes: A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {705}, number = {}, pages = {135979}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135979}, pmid = {31841912}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and eutrophication are both critical environmental issues currently. Climate change induces more critical microplastic pollution and sediment resuspension in eutrophic lakes, and conversely the presence of microplastics and resuspension events would intensify these two environmental effects. Via evaluating the impacts of microplastics and sediment resuspension on climate change and eutrophication, it is favorable to provide recommendations for ecological protection and policy formulation in regard to the nutrient input as well as the production and utilization of plastic. In this review, we explore how climate change and eutrophication interact with microplastic pollution and sediment resuspension in shallow lakes, highlighting that both of the latter two play a significant role in the former two. Furthermore, future prospects are put forward on the further and deeper research on the global warming and eutrophication in shallow lakes with microplastic pollution.}, }
@article {pmid31839307, year = {2020}, author = {Jiang, H and Xu, X and Guan, M and Wang, L and Huang, Y and Jiang, Y}, title = {Determining the contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation dynamics in agro-pastural transitional zone of northern China from 2000 to 2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {718}, number = {}, pages = {134871}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134871}, pmid = {31839307}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The vegetation in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of northern China (APTZNC) was significantly restored, and both climate change and ecological restoration projects contributed to vegetation activities with varied proportion. Since few decades ago, APTZNC has undergone significant land degradation and climate change, threatening regional sustainable development, and in response to such ecological crises, multiple ecological restoration projects were implemented, which have caused a profound impact on the terrestrial ecosystem. Taking agro-pastural transitional zone of northern China (APTZNC) as the study area, this study used 16-year (2000-2015) net primary productivity (NPP) as an important indicator of the arid and semi-arid ecosystem's productivity, combing meteorological data in same period to (1) monitor the vegetation dynamics affected by both climate and ecological restoration projects; (2) detect climate changing trend, including annual precipitation, air temperature, and sunlight hours; (3) explicitly distinguish driving forces of climate change and ecological restoration projects on vegetation dynamics based on correlation analysis. The results demonstrated that (1) the annual NPP indicated overall greening (48.77% significant restoration) and partial degradation (0.39% significant degradation) in APTZNC; (2) the annual precipitation was the main factor that widely influences vegetation growth, and the area with significant influence accounted for 55.53%; however, the area with significant temperature influence only accounted for 1%, and the area affected significantly by sunshine hours accounted for 14.33%; (3) In the area of significant greening with proportion of 48.77%, of 26.93% was related to climate change, of 19.80% was related to ecological conservation programs, and of 2.05% was related to multiple factors. In the significantly degraded area with proportion of 0.39%, of 0.1% is related to climate change and of 0.29% is abnormally degraded. Our study is expected to accelerate the understanding of vegetation dynamics and its driving mechanisms, and provide support for scientifically formulating and adjusting ecological restoration projects in APTZNC.}, }
@article {pmid31839187, year = {2019}, author = {Pandey, BD and Costello, A}, title = {The dengue epidemic and climate change in Nepal.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {394}, number = {10215}, pages = {2150-2151}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32689-3}, pmid = {31839187}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology ; *Dengue Virus ; *Epidemics ; Humans ; Nepal ; }, }
@article {pmid31838422, year = {2020}, author = {Jiang, Q and Qi, Z and Xue, L and Bukovsky, M and Madramootoo, CA and Smith, W}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, N losses in drainage and crop production in a subsurface drained field.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {705}, number = {}, pages = {135969}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135969}, pmid = {31838422}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Future climate change-driven alterations in precipitation patterns, increases in temperature, and rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]atm) are expected to alter agricultural productivity and environmental quality, while high latitude countries like Canada are likely to face more challenges from global climate change. However, potential climate change impact on GHG emissions from tile-drained fields is poorly documented. Accordingly, climate change impacts on GHG emissions, N losses to drainage and crop production in a subsurface-drained field in Southern Quebec, Canada were assessed using calibrated and validated RZWQM2 model. The RZWQM2 model was run for a historical period (1971-2000) and for a future period (2038 to 2070) using data generated from 11 different GCM-RCMs (global climate models coupled with regional climate models). Under the projected warmer and higher rainfall conditions mean drainage flow was predicted to increase by 17%, and the N losses through subsurface drains increase by 47%. Despite the negative effect of warming temperature on crop yield, soybean yield was predicted to increase by 31% due to increased photosynthesis rates and improved crop water use efficiency (WUE) under elevated [CO2]atm, while corn yield was reduced by 7% even with elevated [CO2]atm because of a shorter life cycle from seedling to maturity resulted from higher temperature. The N2O emissions would be enhanced by 21% due to greater denitrification and mineralization, while CO2 emissions would increase by 16% because of more crop biomass accumulation, higher crop residue decomposition, and greater soil microbial activities. Soil organic carbon storage was predicted to decrease 22% faster in the future, which would result in higher global warming potential in turn. This study demonstrates the potential of exacerbating GHG emissions and water quality problems and reduced corn yield under climate change impact in subsurface drained fields in southern Quebec.}, }
@article {pmid31836470, year = {2020}, author = {Henry, RJ}, title = {Innovations in plant genetics adapting agriculture to climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {56}, number = {}, pages = {168-173}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2019.11.004}, pmid = {31836470}, issn = {1879-0356}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Developing new genotypes of plants is one of the key options for adaptation of agriculture to climate change. Plants may be required to provide resilience in changed climates or support the migration of agriculture to new regions. Very different genotypes may be required to perform in the modified environments of protected agriculture. Consumers will continue to demand taste, convenience, healthy and safe food and sustainably and ethically produced food, despite the greater challenges of climate in the future. Improving the nutritional value of foods in response to climate change is a significant challenge. Genomic sequences of relevant germplasm and an understanding of the functional role of alleles controlling key traits will be an enabling platform for this innovation.}, }
@article {pmid31833697, year = {2019}, author = {Zhao, RN and He, QQ and Chu, XJ and Lu, ZQ and Zhu, ZL}, title = {[Prediction of potential distribution of Carpinus cordata in China under climate change.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {3833-3843}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201911.020}, pmid = {31833697}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Betulaceae ; China ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Climate change seriously affects the geographical distribution of plants. Regional diffe-rences in plant response to climate change will provide important guidance for species introduction and conservation. Based on ArcGIS and MaxEnt model, we used 176 geographic information of Carpinus cordata and 13 climatic variables to reconstruct its current and future niche. The results showed that the model had a high credibility in simulating contemporary potential distribution areas. The AUC values of the test set and the training set of the model were 0.973 and 0.957, respectively. The main core suitable areas were concentrated in Qinling, Changbai Mountain and their adjacent areas, with other sporadic "island" distribution. C. cordata is not distributed in Guizhou, Jiangxi, Yunnan and Fujian, but the model predicted some suitable distribution areas in those provinces. With climate warming in the future, ecologically suitable areas of C. cordata would increase significantly, mainly as "shrinking to high altitude areas", "expanding northward", and "expanding eastward". However, core suitable areas would be slightly reduced, which would be manifested as "shrinking southward", "moderate stability", and "expanding northward". The response of C. cordata distribution to climate warming was obviously regional. Eastern Jiangsu, Anhui, and other places would become ecologically suitable areas for C. cordata because of their unique geographical location and climatic environment. The lower latitudes of the south, the original low-altitude areas might no longer be suitable for survival. The central Qinling region was a transition region from north to south, with strong buffer capacity, and climate warming had little effect on its distribution area. The Changbai Mountain and its adjacent areas at higher latitudes were more suitable for C. cordata.}, }
@article {pmid31833135, year = {2020}, author = {Lennox, RJ and Bravener, GA and Lin, HY and Madenjian, CP and Muir, AM and Remucal, CK and Robinson, KF and Rous, AM and Siefkes, MJ and Wilkie, MP and Zielinski, DP and Cooke, SJ}, title = {Potential changes to the biology and challenges to the management of invasive sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus in the Laurentian Great Lakes due to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {1118-1137}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14957}, pmid = {31833135}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//NSERC/International ; //Canada Research Chairs/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Lakes ; *Pesticides ; *Petromyzon ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Control programs are implemented to mitigate the damage caused by invasive species worldwide. In the highly invaded Great Lakes, the climate is expected to become warmer with more extreme weather and variable precipitation, resulting in shorter iced-over periods and variable tributary flows as well as changes to pH and river hydrology and hydrogeomorphology. We review how climate change influences physiology, behavior, and demography of a damaging invasive species, sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), in the Great Lakes, and the consequences for sea lamprey control efforts. Sea lamprey control relies on surveys to monitor abundance of larval sea lamprey in Great Lakes tributaries. The abundance of parasitic, juvenile sea lampreys in the lakes is calculated by surveying wounding rates on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), and trap surveys are used to enumerate adult spawning runs. Chemical control using lampricides (i.e., lamprey pesticides) to target larval sea lamprey and barriers to prevent adult lamprey from reaching spawning grounds are the most important tools used for sea lamprey population control. We describe how climate change could affect larval survival in rivers, growth and maturation in lakes, phenology and the spawning migration as adults return to rivers, and the overall abundance and distribution of sea lamprey in the Great Lakes. Our review suggests that Great Lakes sea lamprey may benefit from climate change with longer growing seasons, more rapid growth, and greater access to spawning habitat, but uncertainties remain about the future availability and suitability of larval habitats. Consideration of the biology of invasive species and adaptation of the timing, intensity, and frequency of control efforts is critical to the management of biological invasions in a changing world, such as sea lamprey in the Great Lakes.}, }
@article {pmid31832730, year = {2020}, author = {Campos, FS and Lourenço-de-Moraes, R and Ruas, DS and Mira-Mendes, CV and Franch, M and Llorente, GA and Solé, M and Cabral, P}, title = {Searching for Networks: Ecological Connectivity for Amphibians Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {65}, number = {1}, pages = {46-61}, pmid = {31832730}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {140710/2013-2; 152303/2016-2; 430195/2018-4//CNPq/International ; }, mesh = {Amphibians ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Ecological connectivity depends on key elements within the landscape, which can support ecological fluxes, species richness and long-term viability of a biological community. Landscape planning requires clear aims and quantitative approaches to identify which key elements can reinforce the spatial coherence of protected areas design. We aim to explore the probability of the ecological connectivity of forest remnants and amphibian species distributions for current and future climate scenarios across the Central Corridor of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Integrating amphibian conservation, climate change and ecological corridors, we design a landscape ranking based on graph and circuit theories. To identify the sensitivity of connected areas to climate-dependent changes, we use the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate by means of simulations for 2080-2100, representing a moderated emission scenario within an optimistic context. Our findings indicate that more than 70% of forest connectivity loss by climate change may drastically reduce amphibian dispersal in this region. We show that high amphibian turnover rates tend to be greater in the north-eastern edges of the corridor across ensembles of forecasts. Our spatial analysis reveals a general pattern of low-conductance areas in landscape surface, yet with some well-connected patches suggesting potential ecological corridors. Atlantic Forest reserves are expected to be less effective in a near future. For improved conservation outcomes, we recommend some landscape paths with low resistance values across space and time. We highlight the importance of maintaining forest remnants in the southern Bahia region by drafting a blueprint for functional biodiversity corridors.}, }
@article {pmid31832670, year = {2020}, author = {Brait, VH}, title = {Climate change is a fundamental factor in the relationship between buildings and health.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {42}, number = {4}, pages = {e578-e579}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdz150}, pmid = {31832670}, issn = {1741-3850}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid31832193, year = {2019}, author = {Blamires, SJ and Sellers, WI}, title = {Modelling temperature and humidity effects on web performance: implications for predicting orb-web spider (Argiope spp.) foraging under Australian climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coz083}, pmid = {31832193}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Phenotypic features extending beyond the body, or EPs, may vary plastically across environments. EP constructs, such as spider webs, vary in property across environments as a result of changes to the physiology of the animal or interactions between the environment and the integrity of the material from which the EP is manufactured. Due to the complexity of the interactions between EP constructs and the environment, the impact of climate change on EP functional integrity is poorly understood. Here we used a dynamic model to assess how temperature and humidity influence spider web major ampullate (MA) silk properties. MA silk is the silk that absorbs the impact of prey striking the web, hence our model provides a useful interpretation of web performance over the temperature (i.e. 20-55°C) and humidity (i.e. 15-100%) ranges assessed. Our results showed that extremely high or low humidity had direct negative effects on web capture performance, with changes in temperature likely having indirect effects. Undeniably, the effect of temperature on web architecture and its interactive effect with humidity on web tension and capture thread stickiness need to be factored into any further predictions of plausible climate change impacts. Since our study is the first to model plasticity in an EP construct's functionality and to extrapolate the results to predict climate change impacts, it stands as a template for future studies that endeavour to make predictions about the influence of climate change on animal EPs.}, }
@article {pmid31832160, year = {2019}, author = {Low, M and Arlt, D and Knape, J and Pärt, T and Öberg, M}, title = {Factors influencing plasticity in the arrival-breeding interval in a migratory species reacting to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {21}, pages = {12291-12301}, pmid = {31832160}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change is profoundly affecting the phenology of many species. In migratory birds, there is evidence for advances in their arrival time at the breeding ground and their timing of breeding, yet empirical studies examining the interdependence between arrival and breeding time are lacking. Hence, evidence is scarce regarding how breeding time may be adjusted via the arrival-breeding interval to help local populations adapt to local conditions or climate change. We used long-term data from an intensively monitored population of the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) to examine the factors related to the length of 734 separate arrival-to-breeding events from 549 individual females. From 1993 to 2017, the mean arrival and egg-laying dates advanced by approximately the same amount (~5-6 days), with considerable between-individual variation in the arrival-breeding interval. The arrival-breeding interval was shorter for: (a) individuals that arrived later in the season compared to early-arriving birds, (b) for experienced females compared to first-year breeders, (c) as spring progressed, and (d) in later years compared to earlier ones. The influence of these factors was much larger for birds arriving earlier in the season compared to later arriving birds, with most effects on variation in the arrival-breeding interval being absent in late-arriving birds. Thus, in this population it appears that the timing of breeding is not constrained by arrival for early- to midarriving birds, but instead is dependent on local conditions after arrival. For late-arriving birds, however, the timing of breeding appears to be influenced by arrival constraints. Hence, impacts of climate change on arrival dates and local conditions are expected to vary for different parts of the population, with potential negative impacts associated with these factors likely to differ for early- versus late-arriving birds.}, }
@article {pmid31831643, year = {2019}, author = {Morecroft, MD and Duffield, S and Harley, M and Pearce-Higgins, JW and Stevens, N and Watts, O and Whitaker, J}, title = {Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {366}, number = {6471}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw9256}, pmid = {31831643}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Natural and seminatural ecosystems must be at the forefront of efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In the urgency of current circumstances, ecosystem restoration represents a range of available, efficient, and effective solutions to cut net greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Although mitigation success can be measured by monitoring changing fluxes of greenhouse gases, adaptation is more complicated to measure, and reductions in a wide range of risks for biodiversity and people must be evaluated. Progress has been made in the monitoring and evaluation of adaptation and mitigation measures, but more emphasis on testing the effectiveness of proposed strategies is necessary. It is essential to take an integrated view of mitigation, adaptation, biodiversity, and the needs of people, to realize potential synergies and avoid conflict between different objectives.}, }
@article {pmid31831355, year = {2020}, author = {Christmann, S}, title = {Climate change enforces to look beyond the plant - the example of pollinators.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {56}, number = {}, pages = {162-167}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2019.11.001}, pmid = {31831355}, issn = {1879-0356}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Ecosystem ; *Pollination ; }, abstract = {Within global crop production 1961-2012, the share of pollinator independent crops increased twofold, but fourfold of pollinator dependent crops. Balanced diets within the boundaries of our planet require even more pollinator dependent crops. Particularly, Low and Middle Income Countries in the drylands produce pollinator dependent crops. However, climate change and agriculture increasingly cause risks for pollinators. Common reward-based seeding of wildflower strips is too expensive for these countries. Breeding towards pollinator independent crops might accelerate loss of pollinators. Recent publications warned that pollinator loss can reduce other ecosystem services supporting crop production. A new alternative approach called Farming with Alternative Pollinators (FAP) might fill the gap. FAP creates on-farm habitable conditions for pollinators and increases productivity and incomes per surface.}, }
@article {pmid31830022, year = {2019}, author = {Horrocks, J and Wilson, N}, title = {"Beasts"-New Zealand's utility vehicles: their climate change emissions and macho marketing.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {132}, number = {1507}, pages = {90-99}, pmid = {31830022}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {Automobiles/*classification/economics ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Marketing ; New Zealand ; Vehicle Emissions/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Vehicle emissions are an important contributor to the growth of greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand. Here we explore the role of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and light utility vehicles (utes) in this problem. Marketed as macho symbols of toughness and dominance, often through comparisons with savage predators, these vehicles are promoted largely to male consumers. Eight out of 10 of the highest-selling new light vehicles in 2018 were SUVs or diesel-powered utes, with the latter standing out as the heaviest emitters of CO2, as well as posing health hazards through their emissions of fine particulates and NOx. The current popularity of these vehicles may create resistance to some of the substantive regulatory steps which will be needed if New Zealand is to meet its climate change commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement. An example of such an initiative is the current government proposal for a Clean Car Standard and Clean Car Discount-a 'feebate' scheme which confers a price advantage on new electric vehicles and smaller cars.}, }
@article {pmid31829787, year = {2019}, author = {Rhodes, CJ}, title = {Only 12 years left to readjust for the 1.5-degree climate change option - Says International Panel on Climate Change report: Current commentary.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {102}, number = {1}, pages = {73-87}, pmid = {31829787}, issn = {2047-7163}, }
@article {pmid31828318, year = {2021}, author = {Woodhall, SC and Landeg, O and Kovats, S}, title = {Public health and climate change: How are local authorities preparing for the health impacts of our changing climate?.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {43}, number = {2}, pages = {425-432}, pmid = {31828318}, issn = {1741-3850}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; England ; Humans ; Leadership ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Local authorities have a crucial role in preparing for the impacts of climate change. However, the extent to which health impacts are being prioritized and acted on is not well understood.<br><br>METHODS: We investigated the role of public health in adapting to climate change through: (i) a content analysis of local authority climate change adaptation strategies in South West England and (ii) semi-structured telephone interviews with local authority public health consultants and sustainability officers and a regional Public Health England representative (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;11).<br><br>RESULTS: Adaptation strategies/plans varied in existence and scope. Public health consultants did not have an explicit remit for climate change adaptation, although related action often aligned with public health's emergency planning functions. Key barriers to health-related adaptation were financial constraints, lack of leadership and limited public and professional awareness about health impacts.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Local authorities in South West England have differing approaches to tackling health impacts of climate change, and the prominence of public health arguments for adaptation varies. Improved public health intelligence, concise communications, targeted support, visible local and national leadership and clarity on economic costs and benefits of adaptation would be useful for local authorities in preparing for the health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31827188, year = {2019}, author = {Kim, GU and Seo, KH and Chen, D}, title = {Climate change over the Mediterranean and current destruction of marine ecosystem.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {18813}, pmid = {31827188}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and its summer climate is known to be affected by the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) through the monsoon-desert teleconnection. In future, rainfall is expected to increase not only over the SASM area but also over the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and equatorial Atlantic regions. Here we show that the remote forcing regions affect the Mediterranean climate in the future. A subset of CMIP5 climate simulations exhibits an increase in the descending motion over the Western Mediterranean in the future. This strengthened subsidence comes from the SASM, EASM, and Atlantic forcings: the SASM and EASM heating induces the Gill-type Rossby wave response, and the Atlantic forcing causes the northeastward wave energy propagation. The sea surface temperature change over the Western Mediterranean is consistent with the subsidence change both in the future and in the recent decades. The chlorophyll-a concentration and fisheries landings have decreased in the recent period along with sea surface temperature warming. Our results suggest that special attention is required to conserve the marine ecosystem in the Mediterranean as climate warms.}, }
@article {pmid31826359, year = {2020}, author = {Shultz, JM and Sands, DE and Kossin, JP and Galea, S}, title = {Double Environmental Injustice - Climate Change, Hurricane Dorian, and the Bahamas.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {382}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp1912965}, pmid = {31826359}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {Bahamas ; *Climate Change ; Community Participation ; *Cyclonic Storms ; *Disaster Planning ; Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid31826335, year = {2020}, author = {Dunk, JH and Jones, DS}, title = {Sounding the Alarm on Climate Change, 1989 and 2019.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {382}, number = {3}, pages = {205-207}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp1913916}, pmid = {31826335}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {Climate Change/*history ; History, 20th Century ; Nuclear Warfare/history ; Societies, Medical/history ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid31824603, year = {2019}, author = {Rukema, JR and Umubyeyi, BS}, title = {Indigenous knowledge approach in maintaining a livelihood in the face of disastrous climate change: Case of drought in Msinga villages, KwaZulu-Natal.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {758}, pmid = {31824603}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The aim of this study is to explore and examine the ways of maintaining livelihoods of communities in the face of extreme climatic conditions using indigenous knowledge systems. Special attention was paid to drought prevailing in the Msinga village communities in the northern part of KwaZulu-Natal. This is a qualitative study. In order to achieve its objectives, this study used semi-structured interviews. In total, there were 16 participants from the Msinga villages. The findings demonstrated that droughts are endemic to the study area, and drought-management strategies are as intrinsic to local livelihood systems as are seasonal-adjustment strategies. The findings also indicated that communities in Msinga have knowledge of drought management. However, this knowledge contributes very little to the management of drought. Limitations in traditional knowledge that contribute effectively to drought management are due to a number of factors including conflicts between traditional knowledge and modern science. This implied that most young people are no longer interested in traditional knowledge but are more interested in modern science. Furthermore, government programmes and interventions hamper the efforts of traditional knowledge in dealing with the consequences of drought and thereby make the community vulnerable to drought.}, }
@article {pmid31820234, year = {2020}, author = {Ma, R and Zhang, B and Zhou, X}, title = {The effects of climate change and groundwater exploitation on the spatial and temporal variations of heavy metal content in maize in the Luan River catchment of China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {1035-1052}, pmid = {31820234}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Groundwater/chemistry ; Humans ; Metals, Heavy/*analysis/chemistry ; Rivers ; Soil/chemistry ; Soil Pollutants/analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis/chemistry ; Zea mays/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the concentration of heavy metal in maize were quantitatively characterized in this study to help us better understand the complex interactions among the groundwater, vadose, plant, and atmosphere layers in the critical zone. We hypothesized that climate change and groundwater resource exploitation firstly affected the shallow groundwater level, and then the groundwater table fluctuation (GTF) impacted the concentration of heavy metal in maize through the critical zone (CZ) structure and parameters. To test our hypothesis, we collected 960 soil and 288 maize samples from the Luan River catchment in the North China Plain. The Groundwater Modeling System software was used to describe the effects of precipitation and groundwater resource exploitation on the groundwater table, and then, the structural equation method was employed to characterize the quantitative effects of GTF, precipitation, and air temperature on the concentration of heavy metal in maize. The results indicate that the influence coefficients of the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the concentrations of Fe, Mn, Cr As, Pb, and Sr were 0.1595, 0.088, 0.0042, - 0.0092, 0.2219, and 0.0493 in the north plain, respectively, and 0.0256, 0.0151, 0.0816, - 0.2264, 0.1125, and - 0.0106 in the south plain of the study region, respectively. Since the human health risks of metals were mainly attributed to Fe, Mn, and Cr in the Luan River catchment, increasing the groundwater resource exploitation volume is an effective way to decrease the Fe, Mn, and Cr contents in maize by decreasing the shallow groundwater table.}, }
@article {pmid31820033, year = {2020}, author = {Bein, T and Karagiannidis, C and Quintel, M}, title = {Climate change, global warming, and intensive care.}, journal = {Intensive care medicine}, volume = {46}, number = {3}, pages = {485-487}, pmid = {31820033}, issn = {1432-1238}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Critical Care ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; }, }
@article {pmid31819908, year = {2019}, author = {Sisodiya, SM and Fowler, HJ and Lake, I and Nanji, RO and Gawel, K and Esguerra, CV and Newton, C and Foley, A}, title = {Climate change and epilepsy: Time to take action.}, journal = {Epilepsia open}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {524-536}, pmid = {31819908}, issn = {2470-9239}, abstract = {Climate change is the biggest challenge facing humanity today. The associated global warming and humidification, increases in the severity and frequency of extreme climate events, extension of the ranges of vector-borne diseases, and the consequent social and economic stresses and disruption will have major negative consequences on many aspects of health care. People whose resilience to change is already impaired may suffer disproportionately from these environmental changes, which are of unprecedented reach and magnitude. There has been little connection made so far between climate change and epilepsy. We briefly review the history of climate change science and the subsequent response of the global scientific community. We consider how climate change effects might in general affect health and disease. We consider some of the underlying complex interactions that, for example, favor the spread of vector-borne diseases and how climate models operate and may help plan for global and local changes. We then speculate specifically on how these generic ideas may apply specifically to epilepsy. We consider these impacts at levels from molecular to the epidemiological. Data are sparse, and there is undoubtedly a need for more information to enable better estimation of possible effects of climate change on care in epilepsy. We also consider how the professional activities of those involved in epilepsy health care might contribute to global carbon emissions, for example, through flying for conference attendance. Healthcare organizations across the world are already considering, and responding to, many of these issues. We argue for more research in this area, but also for action today. Actions today are likely to generate cobenefits for health care, including care in epilepsy, resulting from efforts to decarbonize, mitigate effects of climate change that has already happened, and plan for adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31819239, year = {2020}, author = {Åkesson, CM and Matthews-Bird, F and Bitting, M and Fennell, CJ and Church, WB and Peterson, LC and Valencia, BG and Bush, MB}, title = {2,100 years of human adaptation to climate change in the High Andes.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {66-74}, pmid = {31819239}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Humans ; Peru ; }, abstract = {Humid montane forests are challenging environments for human habitation. We used high-resolution fossil pollen, charcoal, diatom and sediment chemistry data from the iconic archaeological setting of Laguna de los Condores, Peru to reconstruct changing land uses and climates in a forested Andean valley. Forest clearance and maize cultivation were initiated during periods of drought, with periods of forest recovery occurring during wetter conditions. Between AD 800 and 1000 forest regrowth was evident, but this trend was reversed between AD 1000 and 1200 as drier conditions coincided with renewed land clearance, the establishment of a permanent village and the use of cliffs overlooking the lake as a burial site. By AD 1230 forests had regrown in the valley and maize cultivation was greatly reduced. An elevational transect investigating regional patterns showed a parallel, but earlier, history of reduced maize cultivation and forest regeneration at mid-elevation. However, a lowland site showed continuous maize agriculture until European conquest but very little subsequent change in forest cover. Divergent, climate-sensitive landscape histories do not support categorical assessments that forest regrowth and peak carbon sequestration coincided with European arrival.}, }
@article {pmid31818589, year = {2020}, author = {Lu, S and Dai, W and Tang, Y and Guo, M}, title = {A review of the impact of hydropower reservoirs on global climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {711}, number = {}, pages = {134996}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134996}, pmid = {31818589}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Three types of greenhouse gases (GHGs), namely carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emitted from reservoirs have an important but often ignored impact on the climate change. Based on the literature, this paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the long-term impact of GHGs generated by hydropower reservoirs, the systems for monitoring and assessing reservoir GHGs, the mechanism for their generation and key factors involved. Using limnology theory as a basis, the biogeochemical cycle of carbon in the environment is understood to be the main mechanism for generating reservoir based GHG emissions. A summary of relevant research in South American tropical rain forests and the Canada's temperate zone, also shows the extent of current systematic analysis of GHG emission research. Proposals are made for more comprehensive data collection from a wider variety of sources and the key problems identified that need to be solved to provide a theoretical basis for future development policies and practice.}, }
@article {pmid31818491, year = {2020}, author = {Bennett, H and Macmillan, A and Jones, R and Blaiklock, A and McMillan, J}, title = {Should health professionals participate in civil disobedience in response to the climate change health emergency?.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {395}, number = {10220}, pages = {304-308}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32985-X}, pmid = {31818491}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Civil Disorders/*ethics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Climate Change ; Dissent and Disputes ; Global Health ; Health Personnel/*ethics ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid31817462, year = {2019}, author = {Parisi, C and Guerriero, G}, title = {Antioxidative Defense and Fertility Rate in the Assessment of Reprotoxicity Risk Posed by Global Warming.}, journal = {Antioxidants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {31817462}, issn = {2076-3921}, abstract = {The objective of this review is to briefly summarize the recent progress in studies done on the assessment of reprotoxicity risk posed by global warming for the foundation of strategic tool in ecosystem-based adaptation. The selected animal data analysis that was used in this paper focuses on antioxidative markers and fertility rate estimated over the period 2000-2019. We followed a phylogenetic methodology in order to report data on a panel of selected organisms that show dangerous effects. The oxidative damage studies related to temperature fluctuation occurring in biosentinels of different invertebrate and vertebrate classes show a consistently maintained physiological defense. Furthermore, the results from homeothermic and poikilothermic species in our study highlight the influence of temperature rise on reprotoxicity.}, }
@article {pmid31814645, year = {2019}, author = {Stephen, C and Carron, M and Stemshorn, B}, title = {Climate Change and Veterinary Medicine: Action is needed to retain social relevance.}, journal = {The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne}, volume = {60}, number = {12}, pages = {1356-1358}, pmid = {31814645}, issn = {0008-5286}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Domestic ; *Climate Change ; *Veterinary Medicine ; }, }
@article {pmid31812435, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, Y and Li, N and Zhang, Z and Huang, C and Chen, X and Wang, F}, title = {The central trend in crop yields under climate change in China: A systematic review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {704}, number = {}, pages = {135355}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135355}, pmid = {31812435}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Food Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Oryza ; Temperature ; Triticum ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Evidence from numerous studies has confirmed the impact of climate change on crop yields in China since the IPCC AR4. However, the results from different studies can differ widely due to differences in crops, regions, scenarios, and analytical approaches. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in China using a systematic review at the national and subregional levels based on a data set of 667 published simulations. The results show that (1) the impact of climate change on crop yields was mainly reflected in temperature increases, with an average yield loss of 2.58% per °C at the national level. Subregional yield changes ranged from -12.70% to -2.57% per °C, with crop yields being more vulnerable in Northeast China and Northwest China than in other subregions. (2) The yields of crop samples that included CO2 effects were 9.23% higher than the yields of those without CO2 effects. (3) Evidence of the impacts of precipitation on crop yield was robust for Northeast China, Northwest China and North China and was absent or contradictory for the other subregions. (4) Of the three different crops, the response of wheat yields to warming was the most evident, especially in Northwest China, followed by that of maize yields in Northeast China. The negative effects of temperature increases on rice yields were significant at the national level but not at the subregional level. This study synthesized the results from all available studies in a systematic and unbiased manner and provided a robust assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on crop yields.}, }
@article {pmid31812427, year = {2020}, author = {Ma, Q and Zhu, L and Wang, J and Ju, J and Wang, Y and Lü, X and Kasper, T and Haberzettl, T}, title = {Late Holocene vegetation responses to climate change and human impact on the central Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {708}, number = {}, pages = {135370}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135370}, pmid = {31812427}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding long-term environmental changes under natural and anthropic forces is helpful for facilitating sustainable development. Here we present a sedimentary record from the central Tibetan Plateau to investigate the impacts of climate and human activities on alpine vegetation during the late Holocene, based on a 162-cm-long lacustrine sediment core collected from Tangra Yumco. Palynology, charcoal and minerogenic input reveal variations of climate and human activity during the past 3400 cal yr BP. Our results show that alpine steppe dominated by Artemisia, Cyperaceae and Poaceae was present in the Tangra Yumco area during the entire covered period. Only minor human activities are visible between 3400 and 2300 as well as from 1700 to 400 cal yr BP, when vegetation was mainly influenced by climate. Although human activities (presence/grazing) became more intensive between 2300 and 1700 cal yr BP corresponding to the Zhang Zhung Kingdom, vegetation change is still mainly affected by a more arid climate. Strongest human influence on vegetation was found after 400 cal yr BP, when vegetation composition was altered by farming and grazing activities. Our records indicate human activities did not have significant impacts on alpine environment until the past few centuries at Tangra Yumco on the central Tibetan Plateau.}, }
@article {pmid31812417, year = {2020}, author = {Rogora, M and Somaschini, L and Marchetto, A and Mosello, R and Tartari, GA and Paro, L}, title = {Decadal trends in water chemistry of Alpine lakes in calcareous catchments driven by climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {708}, number = {}, pages = {135180}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135180}, pmid = {31812417}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {High mountain lakes are considered sensitive indicators of the effects of natural and anthropogenic drivers, including atmospheric deposition and climate change. In this study, we assess long-term trends in the chemistry of a group of high altitude lakes in the Western Alps, Italy, lying in bedrock with a relevant presence of basic, soluble rocks. An in-depth investigation was performed on two key-sites (Lakes Boden Inferiore and Superiore) for which continuous chemical data are available for a period of 30 years. A group of 10 additional lakes in the same area was also considered; these lakes were sampled at the end of the ice-free period during irregular surveys in the period 1980-2017. Water samples were analysed for the main chemical variables, including pH, electrical conductivity, major ions (Ca[2+], Mg[2+], Na[+], K[+], HCO3[-], Cl[-], SO4[2-], NO3[-]) and algal nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen compounds, reactive silica). A steep increase in conductivity and ion concentrations was detected at the key-sites: conductivity increased from 40-45 to 60-70 µS cm[-1] over the period 1984-2017; sulphate concentrations more than doubled over the same period (from 50-60 to 120-180 µeq L[-1]) and base cations increased from 400-500 to 600-750 µeq L[-1]. An increase in the solute content was also detected in the survey lakes (average conductivity from 39 ± 20 to 57 ± 23 µS cm[-1]). The analysis of meteorological data revealed a significant increase of air temperature (0.019 °C y[-1] over the period 1950-2017), mainly in spring and summer (0.033 °C y[-1]), and a decrease of snow cover depth and duration. Meteo-climatic drivers were identified as the responsible for the chemical changes occurred in the lakes. Climate-driven effects on weathering rates were mainly indirect and occurred by affecting the flow paths of water at both surface and subsurface level. Cryosphere modification (reduced snow cover and permafrost thawing) also played a role.}, }
@article {pmid31811391, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, Y and Yim, SHL and Yang, Y and Morin, CW}, title = {The effect of urbanization and climate change on the mosquito population in the Pearl River Delta region of China.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {3}, pages = {501-512}, pmid = {31811391}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {4930744//Vice-Chancellor's Discretionary Fund of The Chinese University of Hong Kong/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; China ; Climate Change ; *Culex ; Rivers ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {The rising incidence of mosquito-borne diseases is a global concern. Changes in regional climate, due to urbanization and global greenhouse gas concentrations, may affect the ecology of mosquitoes and mosquito-transmitted pathogens. The effects of changes in climate on mosquito population dynamics are complex but critical and urgent for implementing more effective public health policies. This study quantified the impact of urbanization and global climate change on the population of the mosquito species, Culex quinquefasciatus, in the Pearl River Delta region in southern China-an area that has undergone substantial urbanization and is expected to experience changes in climate. This study employed a mechanistic model to simulate mosquito population dynamics under various greenhouse gas emission and land-cover change scenarios based on climate data provided by a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Our results show a 12.6% decrease in the annual mosquito population in newly urbanized areas and a 5.9% increase in the annual mosquito population in existing urban areas. Furthermore, changing climate conditions are projected to cause a 15-17% reduction in the total annual mosquito population; however, the change will not be uniform throughout the year. Peak months exhibit a reduction in population, whereas non-peak months show a significant increase. These findings suggest mosquito control strategies may need to be adjusted to respond to the impacts of urbanization and climate change on mosquito population dynamics to maximize effectiveness. Region specific, quantitative analyses of environmental impacts on mosquito-borne disease ecology, like this study, are needed to provide policy makers with a scientific reference to guide the formation of effective transmission intervention strategies.}, }
@article {pmid31810703, year = {2020}, author = {Zarrineh, N and Abbaspour, KC and Holzkämper, A}, title = {Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on multiple ecosystem services in Western Switzerland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {708}, number = {}, pages = {135212}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135212}, pmid = {31810703}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change can affect the provision of ecosystem services in various ways. In this study, we provide an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystem services, considering uncertainties in both climate projection and model parameterization. The SWAT model was used to evaluate the impacts on water regulation, freshwater, food, and erosion regulation services for the Broye catchment in Western Switzerland. Downscaled EURO-CORDEX projections were used for three periods of thirty years: base climate (1986-2015), near future (2028-2057), and far future (2070-2099). Results reveal that in the far future, low flow is likely to decrease in summer by 77% and increase in winter by 65%, while peak flow may decrease in summer by 19% and increase in winter by 26%. Reduction in summer precipitation reduces nitrate leaching by 25%; however, nitrate concentrations are projected to increase by 14% due to reduced dilution. An increase in winter precipitation increases nitrate leaching by 44%, leading to an increase of nitrate concentration by 11% despite increasing discharge and dilution. Yields of maize and winter wheat are projected to increase in the near future but decrease in the far future because of increasing water and nutrient stress. Average grassland productivity is projected to benefit from climate change in both future periods due to the extended growing season. This increase in productivity benefits erosion regulation as better soil cover helps to decrease soil loss in winter by 5% in the far future. We conclude that water regulation, freshwater and food services will be negatively affected by climate change. Hence, agricultural management needs to be adapted to reduce negative impacts of climate change on ecosystem services and to utilize emerging production potentials. Our findings highlight the need for further studies of potentials to improve nutrient and water management under future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid31810671, year = {2020}, author = {Sobuj, N and Virjamo, V and Nissinen, K and Sivadasan, U and Mehtätalo, L and Nybakken, L and Peltola, H and Julkunen-Tiitto, R}, title = {Responses in growth and phenolics accumulation to lateral bud removal in male and female saplings of Populus tremula (L.) under simulated climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {704}, number = {}, pages = {135462}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135462}, pmid = {31810671}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Hydroxybenzoates/*analysis ; Phenols/analysis ; Plant Leaves/chemistry ; *Populus ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {The responses in growth and defense after tissue damage are highly variable in plants depending on species, damaged-tissue type and the intensity of damage. The prevailing abiotic conditions can also influence these responses. In this study, our aim was to examine how the removal of lateral vegetative buds affects the growth and accumulation of phenolics in saplings of the dioecious Populus tremula grown under simulated climate change. For three growing seasons, the saplings were grown under ambient conditions (control), elevated temperature (+2°C) and elevated UV radiation (30%) (UVB and UVA as its control), or a combination of these. In the fourth growing season, all saplings were grown under ambient conditions. The bud removal was performed twice - in summer and autumn - in the third year. The responses of growth and the accumulation of phenolics to the bud removal were measured at the end of the fourth growing season. Removal of 5% of the lateral buds resulted in higher leaf, stem and total plant biomass in both sexes of P. tremula saplings, compared to intact plants. The effects were greater in the temperature-treated plants, especially in the temperature-treated females. The concentrations of flavonoids and condensed tannins were higher in the bud-removed individuals. The concentration of condensed tannins was also higher in the males than in the females, opposite to the concentration of phenolic acids. There was no significant interaction between bud removal and UVB treatment on either growth or phenolics. Our results suggest that plants can allocate resources to both growth and defense simultaneously in response to tissue loss, and that global warming can modify the responses to some extent.}, }
@article {pmid31808079, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, L and Zhang, F and Fu, S and Shi, X and Chen, Y and Jagirani, MD and Zeng, C}, title = {Assessment of soil erosion risk and its response to climate change in the mid-Yarlung Tsangpo River region.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {607-621}, pmid = {31808079}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2019QZKK0203//Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program/ ; No.41771090//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; No.41571274//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; XDA20060202//"Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Geological Phenomena ; Rivers/chemistry ; *Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Soil erosion is sensitive to climate change, especially in high mountain areas. The Tibetan Plateau has experienced dramatic land surface environment changes under the impact of climate change during the last decades. In this study, we focused on the mid-Yarlung Tsangpo River (MYZ River) located in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) was applied to assess soil erosion risk. To increase its applicability to high mountain areas with longer periods of snowfall, snowmelt runoff erosivity was considered in addition to rainfall erosivity. Results revealed that soil erosion of the MYZ River region was of a moderate grade with an average soil erosion rate of 29.1 t ha[-1] year[-1] and most serious erosion in wet and cold years. Soil erosion rate in the MYZ River region showed a decreasing trend of - 1.14% year[-1] due to the precipitation, temperature, and vegetation changes from 2001 to 2015, with decreasing precipitation being the most important factor. Increasing precipitation and temperature would lead to increasing soil erosion risk in ~ 2050 based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and RUSLE models. It is clear that soil erosion in high mountain areas greatly depends on climate state and attentions should be paid to address soil erosion problem in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31807715, year = {2019}, author = {Pugnaire, FI and Morillo, JA and Peñuelas, J and Reich, PB and Bardgett, RD and Gaxiola, A and Wardle, DA and van der Putten, WH}, title = {Climate change effects on plant-soil feedbacks and consequences for biodiversity and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {eaaz1834}, pmid = {31807715}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; *Plants ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs) are interactions among plants, soil organisms, and abiotic soil conditions that influence plant performance, plant species diversity, and community structure, ultimately driving ecosystem processes. We review how climate change will alter PSFs and their potential consequences for ecosystem functioning. Climate change influences PSFs through the performance of interacting species and altered community composition resulting from changes in species distributions. Climate change thus affects plant inputs into the soil subsystem via litter and rhizodeposits and alters the composition of the living plant roots with which mutualistic symbionts, decomposers, and their natural enemies interact. Many of these plant-soil interactions are species-specific and are greatly affected by temperature, moisture, and other climate-related factors. We make a number of predictions concerning climate change effects on PSFs and consequences for vegetation-soil-climate feedbacks while acknowledging that they may be context-dependent, spatially heterogeneous, and temporally variable.}, }
@article {pmid31807714, year = {2019}, author = {Cámara-Leret, R and Raes, N and Roehrdanz, P and De Fretes, Y and Heatubun, CD and Roeble, L and Schuiteman, A and van Welzen, PC and Hannah, L}, title = {Climate change threatens New Guinea's biocultural heritage.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {eaaz1455}, pmid = {31807714}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; New Guinea ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {New Guinea is the most biologically and linguistically diverse tropical island on Earth, yet the potential impacts of climate change on its biocultural heritage remain unknown. Analyzing 2353 endemic plant species distributions, we find that 63% of species are expected to have smaller geographic ranges by 2070. As a result, ecoregions may have an average of -70 ± 40 fewer species by 2070. Species with future geographic range contractions include 720 endemic plant species that are used by indigenous people, and we find that these will decrease in 80% of New Guinea's 1030 language areas, with losses of up to 94 species per language area. To mitigate the threats of climate change on the flora, we identify priority sites for protected area expansion that can jointly maximize biodiversity and useful plant conservation.}, }
@article {pmid31807697, year = {2019}, author = {Thiault, L and Mora, C and Cinner, JE and Cheung, WWL and Graham, NAJ and Januchowski-Hartley, FA and Mouillot, D and Sumaila, UR and Claudet, J}, title = {Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {eaaw9976}, pmid = {31807697}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Agriculture/*economics ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries/*economics ; Fisheries/*economics ; Food Supply/*economics ; }, abstract = {Climate change can alter conditions that sustain food production and availability, with cascading consequences for food security and global economies. Here, we evaluate the vulnerability of societies to the simultaneous impacts of climate change on agriculture and marine fisheries at a global scale. Under a "business-as-usual" emission scenario, ~90% of the world's population-most of whom live in the most sensitive and least developed countries-are projected to be exposed to losses of food production in both sectors, while less than 3% would live in regions experiencing simultaneous productivity gains by 2100. Under a strong mitigation scenario comparable to achieving the Paris Agreement, most countries-including the most vulnerable and many of the largest CO2 producers-would experience concomitant net gains in agriculture and fisheries production. Reducing societies' vulnerability to future climate impacts requires prompt mitigation actions led by major CO2 emitters coupled with strategic adaptation within and across sectors.}, }
@article {pmid31806339, year = {2020}, author = {López-Dóriga, U and Jiménez, JA and Bisaro, A and Hinkel, J}, title = {Financing and implementation of adaptation measures to climate change along the Spanish coast.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {712}, number = {}, pages = {135685}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135685}, pmid = {31806339}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding how we are adapting to climate change in coastal areas is an essential issue in the long-term coastal planning. While most of existing studies focus on mapping the current state of adaptation plans, there is a significant lack of studies on the current implementation of adaptation strategies. This study addresses this challenge by assessing how coastal adaptation is being financed and implemented in Spain. In the absence of a detailed roadmap for implementing the Spanish Strategy for Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change, we have analysed how adaptation has been and is currently being funded; which the rationale for investments along the territory is; how adaptation investments compare to regular coastal protection costs; and assessed when implemented measures are really adaptation ones. Our results show that the financing source clearly conditions the type of measures implemented, with those funded under the Environment Promotion Plan for Climate Change Adaptation (PIMA Adapta initiative) being dominated by classical coastal engineering actions, whereas ecosystem-related actions are mostly funded under the LIFE programme. In territorial terms, the Mediterranean coastal regions present the most important problems under current conditions and attract most of the funding. Most of the funded actions have been designed to solve current coastal problems, and although they indirectly contribute to adaptation by improving the coastal base status, they are not specifically designed for climate change. This misuse of the concept of adaptation measure will tend to the society to be overconfident about adopted actions whereas we are not progressing to real adaptation. To overcome this risk, it is necessary to have a clear roadmap for implementing adaptation measures together a proper financing structure.}, }
@article {pmid31804812, year = {2020}, author = {Jones, C and Gilbert, P and Stamford, L}, title = {Assessing the Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Stationary Energy Storage for Electricity Grid Services.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {54}, number = {1}, pages = {67-75}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b06231}, pmid = {31804812}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Electricity ; Global Warming ; Recycling ; Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {This paper presents a life cycle assessment for three stationary energy storage systems (ESS): lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery, vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), and liquid air energy storage (LAES). The global warming potential (GWP) is assessed in relation to uncertainties in usage of the storage, use-phase energy input, cell replacement, and round-trip efficiency parameters. Relative climate change mitigation potential in comparison with equivalent diesel electric and natural gas generation is discussed, as is the effect of recycling at end of life. With variations in input electricity source, recycling, and efficiency, the life cycle global warming potential for LFP ranges from 185 to 440 kg CO2 eq/MWh, for VRFB from 121 to 443 kg CO2 eq/MWh, and for LAES from 48 to 203 kg CO2 eq/MWh. In all cases, there are climate change mitigation benefits compared to fossil fuel alternatives. Use of renewable energy for charging and operation, ease of component recycling/reuse, and reduced parts replacement is shown to reduce GWP. The climate change mitigation potential of ESS for electricity grid operation is further enhanced by increasing use of the storage assets. Recycling of ESS is shown to reduce terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication, and particulate matter impacts. Reduced ozone depletion potential for VRFB and LFP can be achieved by reducing nafion and PVDF components, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid31804736, year = {2020}, author = {Brambilla, M and Scridel, D and Bazzi, G and Ilahiane, L and Iemma, A and Pedrini, P and Bassi, E and Bionda, R and Marchesi, L and Genero, F and Teufelbauer, N and Probst, R and Vrezec, A and Kmecl, P and Mihelič, T and Bogliani, G and Schmid, H and Assandri, G and Pontarini, R and Braunisch, V and Arlettaz, R and Chamberlain, D}, title = {Species interactions and climate change: How the disruption of species co-occurrence will impact on an avian forest guild.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {1212-1224}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14953}, pmid = {31804736}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//RDP Trento province/International ; //Parco Naturale Paneveggio-Pale di San Martino/International ; P1-0255//Slovenian Research Agency/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Predatory Behavior ; *Strigiformes ; }, abstract = {Interspecific interactions are crucial in determining species occurrence and community assembly. Understanding these interactions is thus essential for correctly predicting species' responses to climate change. We focussed on an avian forest guild of four hole-nesting species with differing sensitivities to climate that show a range of well-understood reciprocal interactions, including facilitation, competition and predation. We modelled the potential distributions of black woodpecker and boreal, tawny and Ural owl, and tested whether the spatial patterns of the more widespread species (excluding Ural owl) were shaped by interspecific interactions. We then modelled the potential future distributions of all four species, evaluating how the predicted changes will alter the overlap between the species' ranges, and hence the spatial outcomes of interactions. Forest cover/type and climate were important determinants of habitat suitability for all species. Field data analysed with N-mixture models revealed effects of interspecific interactions on current species abundance, especially in boreal owl (positive effects of black woodpecker, negative effects of tawny owl). Climate change will impact the assemblage both at species and guild levels, as the potential area of range overlap, relevant for species interactions, will change in both proportion and extent in the future. Boreal owl, the most climate-sensitive species in the guild, will retreat, and the range overlap with its main predator, tawny owl, will increase in the remaining suitable area: climate change will thus impact on boreal owl both directly and indirectly. Climate change will cause the geographical alteration or disruption of species interaction networks, with different consequences for the species belonging to the guild and a likely spatial increase of competition and/or intraguild predation. Our work shows significant interactions and important potential changes in the overlap of areas suitable for the interacting species, which reinforce the importance of including relevant biotic interactions in predictive climate change models for increasing forecast accuracy.}, }
@article {pmid31804460, year = {2019}, author = {Jones, SM and Hoggett, M and Greene, SE and Dunkley Jones, T}, title = {Large Igneous Province thermogenic greenhouse gas flux could have initiated Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {5547}, pmid = {31804460}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) are associated with the largest climate perturbations in Earth's history. The North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP) and Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) constitute an exemplar of this association. As yet we have no means to reconstruct the pacing of LIP greenhouse gas emissions for comparison with climate records at millennial resolution. Here, we calculate carbon-based greenhouse gas fluxes associated with the NAIP at sub-millennial resolution by linking measurements of the mantle convection process that generated NAIP magma with observations of the individual geological structures that controlled gas emissions in a Monte Carlo framework. These simulations predict peak emissions flux of 0.2-0.5 PgC yr[-1] and show that the NAIP could have initiated PETM climate change. This is the first predictive model of carbon emissions flux from any proposed PETM carbon source that is directly constrained by observations of the geological structures that controlled the emissions.}, }
@article {pmid31802576, year = {2020}, author = {du Pontavice, H and Gascuel, D and Reygondeau, G and Maureaud, A and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {1306-1318}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14944}, pmid = {31802576}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Nippon Foundation/International ; 13159//VILLUM Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Fishes ; *Food Chain ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life-history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) and the biomass residence time (BRT) in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean TTE in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2100 under the 'no effective mitigation' representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), while BRT between trophic levels 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 years on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the TTEs and BRTs may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean TTE and BRT will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31802341, year = {2020}, author = {Fahad, S and Wang, J}, title = {Climate change, vulnerability, and its impacts in rural Pakistan: a review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {1334-1338}, pmid = {31802341}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Farms ; Humans ; Pakistan ; Rural Population ; }, abstract = {Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries especially in Southeast Asia experiencing floods and droughts as a result of climate change. Variation in climate adversely affects agriculture sector, ground water, nutrition, soil quality and soil organic matter, health conditions, and poverty. The main purpose of this study is to review the impact of climate change and adaptation strategies used at farm level in response to variation in temperature and precipitation. As per literature, Pakistani farmers adopt several adaptation strategies in response to climate change, like change in fertilizer, change in crop variety, pesticide, seed quality, water storage, farm diversification, plant shade trees, irrigation practices, off-farm activities, permanent and temporary migration, and selling of assets. Literature also showed that farmers living wetland area perceived less variation in climate than farm households living in dry area.}, }
@article {pmid31801371, year = {2019}, author = {Binns, C and Low, WY}, title = {Time to Get on With It: Climate Change Needs Public Health Action Now.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {31}, number = {7}, pages = {581-583}, doi = {10.1177/1010539519884472}, pmid = {31801371}, issn = {1941-2479}, }
@article {pmid31800577, year = {2019}, author = {Weniger, GC and de Andrés-Herrero, M and Bolin, V and Kehl, M and Otto, T and Potì, A and Tafelmaier, Y}, title = {Late Glacial rapid climate change and human response in the Westernmost Mediterranean (Iberia and Morocco).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {e0225049}, pmid = {31800577}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Human Migration ; Humans ; Mediterranean Region ; Radiometric Dating ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {This paper investigates the correlation between climate, environment and human land use in the Westernmost Mediterranean on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar during the Late Glacial. Using a multi-proxy approach on a sample of 300 sites from the Solutrean and Magdalenian of the Iberian Peninsula and from the Iberomaurusian in Morocco, we find evidence for significant changes in settlement patterns and site density after the Last Glacial Maximum. In Southern Iberia, during Heinrich Stadial 1, hyperarid zones expanded drastically from the south-eastern coast to the West through the Interior. This aridification process heavily affected Magdalenian settlement in the South and caused a strong decline of hunter-gatherer population. Southern Iberia during Heinrich Stadial 1 turned out to be a high-risk environment when compared to Northern Iberia. At the same time, the Late Iberomaurusian of Morocco, although considered to be situated in a high-risk environment as well, experiences an increase of sites and expansion of settlement area.}, }
@article {pmid31800170, year = {2020}, author = {Weeks, BC and Willard, DE and Zimova, M and Ellis, AA and Witynski, ML and Hennen, M and Winger, BM}, title = {Shared morphological consequences of global warming in North American migratory birds.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {316-325}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13434}, pmid = {31800170}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Birds ; Body Size ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Increasing temperatures associated with climate change are predicted to cause reductions in body size, a key determinant of animal physiology and ecology. Using a four-decade specimen series of 70 716 individuals of 52 North American migratory bird species, we demonstrate that increasing annual summer temperature over the 40-year period predicts consistent reductions in body size across these diverse taxa. Concurrently, wing length - an index of body shape that impacts numerous aspects of avian ecology and behaviour - has consistently increased across species. Our findings suggest that warming-induced body size reduction is a general response to climate change, and reveal a similarly consistent and unexpected shift in body shape. We hypothesise that increasing wing length represents a compensatory adaptation to maintain migration as reductions in body size have increased the metabolic cost of flight. An improved understanding of warming-induced morphological changes is important for predicting biotic responses to global change.}, }
@article {pmid31797166, year = {2020}, author = {Ferreira, E and Kalliola, R and Ruokolainen, K}, title = {Bamboo, climate change and forest use: A critical combination for southwestern Amazonian forests?.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {49}, number = {8}, pages = {1353-1363}, pmid = {31797166}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {296406//Academy of Finland/ ; }, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fires ; Forests ; Peru ; Trees ; }, abstract = {About 160 000 km[2] of forests in the border zone between Brazil and Peru are dominated by semi-scandent bamboos (Guadua spp.). We argue that both predicted decreased precipitation during the dry season and widespread anthropogenic disturbances will significantly increase the distribution and biomass of bamboos in the area. Seasonal dryness favours the growth of evergreen bamboos in relation to trees that shed their leaves during the dry season. Disturbance can be beneficial for the bamboo because, as a clonal plant, it is often able to recover more rapidly than trees. It also withstands dry season better than many trees. The bamboo life cycle ends in a mass mortality event every 28 years, producing potential fuel for a forest fire. Presently, natural forest fires hardly exist in the area. However, in the projected future climate with more pronounced dry season and with increased fuel load after bamboo die-off events the forests may start to catch fire that has escaped from inhabited areas or even started naturally. Fires can kill trees, thus further increasing the fuel load of the forest. As a result, the landscape may start to convert to a savanna ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid31797108, year = {2019}, author = {Zhu, S and Ptak, M and Choiński, A and Wu, S}, title = {Exploring and quantifying the impact of climate change on surface water temperature of a high mountain lake in Central Europe.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {192}, number = {1}, pages = {7}, pmid = {31797108}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {2018YFC0407200//the National Key R&amp;D Program of China/ ; 2018M640499//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; 201910//Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research Scientific Development Fund/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Europe ; *Lakes/chemistry ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is a key indicator which drives ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying the impact of climate change on LSWT variations is thus of great significance. In this study, observed data of LSWT during the period 1969-2018 in a high mountain lake (Morskie Oko Lake, Central Europe) were analyzed. The results showed that the prominent warming of the LSWT and air temperature began around 1997. A logistic non-linear S-curve function was used to model monthly average LSWT. The non-linear model performed well to capture monthly average LSWT and air temperature relationships (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient 0.86 and the root mean squared error 1.63 °C). Using the 2009-2018 period as base scenario, a sensitivity analysis was conducted. The results showed that the annual mean LSWT will likely increase about + 1.29 °C and + 2.64 °C with air temperature increases of + 2 °C and + 4 °C respectively at the end of the twenty-first century. If realized, such a scenario will cause serious consequences on lake ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid31796258, year = {2020}, author = {Shrestha, S and Gunawardana, SK and Piman, T and Babel, MS}, title = {Assessment of the impact of climate change and mining activities on streamflow and selected metal's loading in the Chindwin River, Myanmar.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {181}, number = {}, pages = {108942}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.108942}, pmid = {31796258}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Hydrology ; Metals/*analysis ; *Mining ; Myanmar ; Rivers ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {The rapid expansion in mining activities is deteriorating the water quality in the Chindwin River of Myanmar. In addition, climate change may also aggravate this situation in future. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish a connection between hydrology, mining area, heavy metal loading, and climate change in the Chindwin River. The hydrology of the upper Chindwin basin was modelled using SHETRAN hydrological model. Geochemical model PHREEQC was utilised to conduct speciation and saturation indexes modelling along the river in order to quantify the precipitated minerals along the river. Thereafter a regression relationship along with LOADEST model was used to quantify the heavy metal loads. Future climate was projected using four RCM's namely ACCESS1-CSIRO-CCAM, CCSM4-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM. Future discharges at water quality monitoring stations were simulated using the averaged ensembles. Finally, the heavy metal loading under future climate scenarios were analysed. Results indicate that climate change is likely to reduce future discharges by 3.4%-36.5% in all stations except in the Mokekalae station which shows 1.3%-9.4% increase in the near future discharges. Also, the projected metal loading under future climate conditions shows a decreasing pattern which is similar to the projected discharge pattern. In both baseline and future climate conditions, the area between stations Naung Po Aung and Uru downstream show the highest load effluent for both arsenic and mercury while the area between stations Uru downstream and Mokekalae show the highest load of iron effluent. Although future heavy metal loadings are expected to decrease, mining activities should be carefully monitored, since they discharge a large amount of toxic heavy metal loadings into the Chindwin River which is also expected to suffer a decrease streamflow in future.}, }
@article {pmid31796257, year = {2020}, author = {Elshkaki, A and Lei, S and Chen, WQ}, title = {Material-energy-water nexus: Modelling the long term implications of aluminium demand and supply on global climate change up to 2050.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {181}, number = {}, pages = {108964}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.108964}, pmid = {31796257}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Aluminum ; *Climate Change ; Industry ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Water ; }, abstract = {Aluminium is a widely used metal and one of the most energy intensive industries, and therefore it has been included in most energy models and scenarios. Material demand and supply are broadly linked to energy, water, and climate change. In this study, we develop four global and regional process based scenarios for the material-energy-water nexus combined with CO2 emissions and applied to aluminium. The scenarios used in this study are; Market World (MW), Toward Resilience (TR), Security Foremost (SF), and Equitability World (EW). The results indicate that global CO2 emissions are expected to increase as a result of increasing aluminium demand, although aluminium secondary supply, energy efficiency, and cleaner energy supply technologies are expected to increase in the next 30 years. Policy and sustainability (TR and EW) scenarios are ultimately the best in terms of global climate change since the two scenarios have the lowest CO2 emissions, although they also have the highest aluminium demand and energy. It is therefore necessary to implement cleaner energy supply and energy efficiency technologies at high rates in aluminium industry to mitigate possible increase in CO2 emissions.}, }
@article {pmid31795636, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, Y and Levis, JW and Barlaz, MA}, title = {An Assessment of the Dynamic Global Warming Impact Associated with Long-Term Emissions from Landfills.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {54}, number = {3}, pages = {1304-1313}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b04066}, pmid = {31795636}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Methane ; Solid Waste ; Waste Disposal Facilities ; }, abstract = {Landfills are a major contributor of anthropogenic CH4 emissions. Since the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with landfilling waste can occur over decades to centuries, the standard static approach to estimating global warming impacts may not accurately represent the global warming impacts of landfills. The objective of this study is to assess the implications of using 100 yr and 20 yr static and dynamic global warming potential (GWP) approaches to estimate the global warming impacts from municipal solid waste landfills. A life-cycle model was developed to estimate GHG emissions for three gas treatment cases (passive venting, flare, CH4 conversion to electricity) and four decay rates. For the 100 yr GWP, other model uncertainties (e.g., static GWP values, decay rate, moisture content, or gas collection efficiency) generally had a larger effect on the estimated global warming impact than the choice of static versus dynamic GWP methods. This shows that when comparing single-point GWP values, the choice of static versus dynamic is relatively unimportant for most landfills. While dynamic GWPs consider temporal variance and provide useful estimates for the warming over a set time horizon, for most comparative analyses, static values provide reasonable bounds for the actual 100 yr warming impact.}, }
@article {pmid31793168, year = {2020}, author = {Pu, J and Wang, Z and Chung, H}, title = {Climate change and the genetics of insecticide resistance.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {76}, number = {3}, pages = {846-852}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5700}, pmid = {31793168}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {MICL02522//AgBioResearch, Michigan State University/ ; //USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture and Michigan AgBioResearch/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Drosophila melanogaster ; Insecta ; *Insecticide Resistance ; Insecticides ; }, abstract = {Changes in global temperature and humidity as a result of climate change are producing rapid evolutionary changes in many animal species, including agricultural pests and disease vectors, leading to changes in allele frequencies of genes involved in thermotolerance and desiccation resistance. As some of these genes have pleiotropic effects on insecticide resistance, climate change is likely to affect insecticide resistance in the field. In this review, we discuss how the interactions between adaptation to climate change and resistance to insecticides can affect insecticide resistance in the field using examples in phytophagous and hematophagous pest insects, focusing on the effects of increased temperature and increased aridity. We then use detailed genetic and mechanistic studies in the model insect, Drosophila melanogaster, to explain the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon. We suggest that tradeoffs or facilitation between adaptation to climate change and resistance to insecticides can alter insecticide resistance allele frequencies in the field. The dynamics of these interactions will need to be considered when managing agricultural pests and disease vectors in a changing climate. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid31792420, year = {2019}, author = {Zemp, M}, title = {Glacier monitoring tracks progress in limiting climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {576}, number = {7785}, pages = {39}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-03700-3}, pmid = {31792420}, issn = {1476-4687}, support = {MR/S017232/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid31792174, year = {2019}, author = {McMahon, KW and Michelson, CI and Hart, T and McCarthy, MD and Patterson, WP and Polito, MJ}, title = {Divergent trophic responses of sympatric penguin species to historic anthropogenic exploitation and recent climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {51}, pages = {25721-25727}, pmid = {31792174}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Euphausiacea ; Feathers/chemistry ; Feeding Behavior/*physiology ; Nitrogen Isotopes/analysis ; Spheniscidae/*physiology ; Sympatry/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The Southern Ocean is in an era of significant change. Historic overharvesting of marine mammals and recent climatic warming have cascading impacts on resource availability and, in turn, ecosystem structure and function. We examined trophic responses of sympatric chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua) penguins to nearly 100 y of shared environmental change in the Antarctic Peninsula region using compound-specific stable isotope analyses of museum specimens. A century ago, gentoo penguins fed almost exclusively on low-trophic level prey, such as krill, during the peak of historic overexploitation of marine mammals, which was hypothesized to have resulted in a krill surplus. In the last 40 y, gentoo penguin trophic position has increased a full level as krill declined in response to recent climate change, increased competition from recovering marine mammal populations, and the development of a commercial krill fishery. A shifting isotopic baseline supporting gentoo penguins suggests a concurrent increase in coastal productivity over this time. In contrast, chinstrap penguins exhibited no change in trophic position, despite variation in krill availability over the past century. The specialized foraging niche of chinstrap penguins likely renders them more sensitive to changes in krill availability, relative to gentoo penguins, as evinced by their declining population trends in the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 40 y. Over the next century, similarly divergent trophic and population responses are likely to occur among Antarctic krill predators if climate change and other anthropogenic impacts continue to favor generalist over specialist species.}, }
@article {pmid31792170, year = {2019}, author = {Palmer, T and Stevens, B}, title = {The scientific challenge of understanding and estimating climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {49}, pages = {24390-24395}, pmid = {31792170}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Given the slow unfolding of what may become catastrophic changes to Earth's climate, many are understandably distraught by failures of public policy to rise to the magnitude of the challenge. Few in the science community would think to question the scientific response to the unfolding changes. However, is the science community continuing to do its part to the best of its ability? In the domains where we can have the greatest influence, is the scientific community articulating a vision commensurate with the challenges posed by climate change? We think not.}, }
@article {pmid31789339, year = {2020}, author = {Starr, SM and McIntyre, NE}, title = {Effects of Water Temperature Under Projected Climate Change on the Development and Survival of Enallagma civile (Odonata: Coenagrionidae).}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {49}, number = {1}, pages = {230-237}, doi = {10.1093/ee/nvz138}, pmid = {31789339}, issn = {1938-2936}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; North America ; *Odonata ; Ovum ; Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {Current climate projections for the Great Plains of North America indicate markedly increased air temperatures by the end of the current century. Because the Great Plains contains >80,000 intermittent wetlands that serve as irreplaceable wildlife habitat, this projected warming may have profound effects throughout a continental-scale trophic network. However, little research has been done to determine how projected warming may affect the growth, development, or survival of even common species in this region. We conducted laboratory warming experiments, using an abundant amphibious predatory insect, Enallagma civile (Hagen, 1861), as a model organism, to determine whether projected warming may affect development or survival. Eggs were collected and reared under four water temperature regimes representing current (26°C) and projected future conditions (32, 38, and 41°C). Nymph body size after each molt, development rate, and deaths were recorded. Elevated water temperatures were found to significantly affect the survivorship of E. civile eggs and nymphs as well as adult body size at emergence: an increase in temperature incurred a decrease in survival and size. Nymphs in the two hotter treatments were smaller and had low survivorship whereas individuals in the cooler temperatures generally survived to adulthood and were larger. Nymphs reared at 32°C experienced accelerated ontogenetic development compared with the other temperatures, going from egg to adult in 26 d. Projected elevated temperatures may, thus, be both advantageous and detrimental, causing concern for aquatic invertebrates in this region in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31787944, year = {2019}, author = {Gasperini, AM and Rodriguez-Sixtos, A and Verheecke-Vaessen, C and Garcia-Cela, E and Medina, A and Magan, N}, title = {Resilience of Biocontrol for Aflatoxin Minimization Strategies: Climate Change Abiotic Factors May Affect Control in Non-GM and GM-Maize Cultivars.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {2525}, pmid = {31787944}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {There has been significant interest in the development of formulations of non-toxigenic strains of Aspergillus flavus for control of toxigenic strains to reduce the aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) contamination of maize. In the future, climate change (CC) abiotic conditions of temperature (+2-4°C), CO2 (existing levels of 400 vs. 800-1,200 ppb), and drought stress will impact on the agronomy and control of pests and diseases. This study has examined (1) the effect of two-way interacting factors of water activity × temperature on colonization and AFB1 contamination of maize cobs of different ripening ages; (2) the effect of non-toxigenic strains of A. flavus (50:50 inoculum ratio) on relative control of toxigenic A. flavus and AFB1 contamination of ripening cobs; (3) post-harvest control of AFB1 by non-toxigenic strains of A. flavus in non-GM and isogenic GM maize cultivars using the same inoculum ratio; and (4) the impact of three-way interacting CC factors on relative control of AFB1 in maize cobs pre-harvest and in stored non-GM/GM cultivars. Pre-harvest colonization and AFB1 production by a toxigenic A. flavus strain was conserved at 37°C when compared with 30°C, at the three ripening stages of cob development examined: milk ripe (R3), dough (R4), and dent (R5). However, pre-harvest biocontrol with a non-toxigenic strain was only effective at the R3 and R4 stages and not at the R5 stage. This was supported by relative expression of the aflR regulatory biosynthetic gene in the different treatments. When exposed to three-way interacting CC factors for control of AFB1 pre-harvest, the non-toxigenic A. flavus strain was effective at R3 and £4 stages but not at the R5 stage. Post-harvest storage of non-GM and GM cultivars showed that control was achievable at 30°C, with slightly better control in GM-cultivars in terms of the overall inhibition of AFB1 production. However, in stored maize, the non-toxigenic strains of A. flavus had conserved biocontrol of AFB1 contamination, especially in the GM-maize cultivars under three-way interacting CC conditions (37°C × 1,000 ppm CO2 and drought stress). This was supported by the relative expression of the aflR gene in these treatments. This study suggests that the choice of the biocontrol strains, for pre- or post-harvest control, needs to take into account their resilience in CC-related abiotic conditions to ensure that control of AFB1 contamination can be conserved.}, }
@article {pmid31787839, year = {2019}, author = {Kipling, RP and Topp, CFE and Bannink, A and Bartley, DJ and Blanco-Penedo, I and Cortignani, R and Del Prado, A and Dono, G and Faverdin, P and Graux, AI and Hutchings, NJ and Lauwers, L and Özkan Gülzari, &#x15e; and Reidsma, P and Rolinski, S and Ruiz-Ramos, M and Sandars, DL and Sándor, R and Schönhart, M and Seddaiu, G and van Middelkoop, J and Shrestha, S and Weindl, I and Eory, V}, title = {To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?.}, journal = {Environmental modelling &amp; software : with environment data news}, volume = {120}, number = {}, pages = {104492}, pmid = {31787839}, issn = {1364-8152}, abstract = {Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers' views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.}, }
@article {pmid31787795, year = {2019}, author = {Mabon, L and Kondo, K and Kanekiyo, H and Hayabuchi, Y and Yamaguchi, A}, title = {Fukuoka: Adapting to climate change through urban green space and the built environment?.}, journal = {Cities (London, England)}, volume = {93}, number = {}, pages = {273-285}, pmid = {31787795}, issn = {0264-2751}, abstract = {This paper profiles Fukuoka City in Kyushu, Japan. We focus on the city's local climate change adaptation policies, and in particular the role of urban and greenspace planning in facilitating adaptation actions within Fukuoka. Fukuoka is a humid subtropical city which is currently experiencing significant population and economic growth. It has also made comparatively rigorous advances in climate adaptation, in a country context where local governments have been criticised for focusing more on mitigation. Fukuoka hence may yield lessons for other rapidly urbanising subtropical Asian cities. We illustrate that Fukuoka has a long tradition of science-policy connection towards the creation of a liveable urban environment. This creates a favourable research and policy infrastructure for adaptation, in particular mitigation of heat risk. This is evidenced in consideration of climate issues within the city's greenspace plans since the 1990s, and in an extensive body of underpinning applied research from local institutions into urban thermal environments in particular. Fukuoka's green terraced ACROS building has come to symbolise adaptation via the built environment, and has been followed by the emergence of further green roofs and through citizen and private sector involvement in smaller-scale greening actions. We caution that challenges remain around connecting different sections of local governments, and in maintaining climate and environmental imperatives in the face of ongoing development and expansion pressures.}, }
@article {pmid31787306, year = {2020}, author = {Wu, Z and Dai, E and Wu, Z and Lin, M}, title = {Assessing differences in the response of forest aboveground biomass and composition under climate change in subtropical forest transition zone.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {706}, number = {}, pages = {135746}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135746}, pmid = {31787306}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Trees ; }, abstract = {The subtropical forest transition zone in southern China is a typical transition zone with high coverage and diverse vegetation. Projected climate change will affect physiological processes of trees, which would consequently alter the forest aboveground biomass (AGB) and composition at broad spatial scales. However, spatially heterogeneous responses may also be shaped by climate change, succession, and harvesting in different forest habitats. The objectives of this study were to assess the changes in subtropical forest AGB and composition in response to climate change, while comparing the responses of two similar forest landscapes: Taihe County (TH) and Longnan County (LN). We used a loose-coupling of PnET-II with LANDIS-II to simulate changes in forest AGB and composition under climate change scenarios (Current climate, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) with harvest disturbances. Our simulation results demonstrated that forest AGB and composition were significantly affected by climate change in both landscapes. Changes in forest AGB was mostly driven by succession and harvest, but climate change also greatly contribute to the variation in AGB of deciduous broad-leaved forests (DBF), and coniferous forests (CF). Moreover, a larger area of LN experienced biomass reduction compared to TH, specifically under the RCP8.5 scenario. Given our estimates of the response in forest AGB and composition under climate change scenarios across different periods, we recommend that the regional forest management should be localized and should consider the effects of climate change through time in their planning schemes.}, }
@article {pmid31785696, year = {2019}, author = {Muret, J and Kelway, C and ,  and , }, title = {Why should anaesthesiologists and intensivists care about climate change?.}, journal = {Anaesthesia, critical care &amp; pain medicine}, volume = {38}, number = {6}, pages = {565-567}, doi = {10.1016/j.accpm.2019.10.014}, pmid = {31785696}, issn = {2352-5568}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Anesthesiologists/*psychology ; Anesthesiology/*methods ; Anesthetics, Inhalation ; Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change/mortality ; Critical Care/*methods ; Delivery of Health Care ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Environmental Health ; Greenhouse Gases ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Human Migration ; Humans ; Morbidity/trends ; Natural Disasters ; Refusal to Treat ; }, }
@article {pmid31784177, year = {2020}, author = {Jiang, F and Zhang, J and Gao, H and Cai, Z and Zhou, X and Li, S and Zhang, T}, title = {Musk deer (Moschus spp.) face redistribution to higher elevations and latitudes under climate change in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {704}, number = {}, pages = {135335}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135335}, pmid = {31784177}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Deer ; *Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Ruminants ; }, abstract = {The population of wild musk deer (Moschus spp.) has declined in recent decades and reached an endangered status in China. Global climate change may drive the extinction rate of these species. To understand the implications of global warming on the future potential space utilization and migration direction of musk deer, both the maximum entropy model and barycenter migration analysis were utilized. Five global climate models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios were considered to simulate the distribution of six species for the years 2050 and 2070. The results indicated that the suitable habitat area would decrease over the next 30 to 50 years. These decreases of suitable habitat were more significant for the Siberian musk deer (reduced by 4.98% of the land area of China), the forest musk deer (1.04%), the black musk deer (0.86%), and the Himalayan musk deer (1.82%) compared with the other two musk deer species. The area with suitable climate for the Siberian musk deer will migrate to the southwest (to higher elevations) while areas suitable for the Alpine musk deer, the Himalayan musk deer, and the Anhui musk deer would all migrate to the northeast (to higher latitudes). However, the forest musk deer and the black musk deer will not migrate in the same direction, but will mainly migrate to the west and the north, respectively. These results provide data in support for in-situ conservation, ex-situ conservation, natural reserve community, and bio-corridor construction of China's musk deer species in response to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid31783901, year = {2019}, author = {DeLisi, C}, title = {Correction to: The role of synthetic biology in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Biology direct}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {24}, pmid = {31783901}, issn = {1745-6150}, abstract = {After publication of this article [1], the author brought to our attention that there are some errors in the article.}, }
@article {pmid31783212, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, Y and Ruckelshaus, M and Arkema, KK and Han, B and Lu, F and Zheng, H and Ouyang, Z}, title = {Synthetic vulnerability assessment to inform climate-change adaptation along an urbanized coast of Shenzhen, China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {255}, number = {}, pages = {109915}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109915}, pmid = {31783212}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Coastal zones are increasingly threatened by stressors from both climate change and human activities. Vulnerability assessment is central to the implementation of interventions for adapting climate change. However, synthetic vulnerability based on an integrative analysis of ecosystem service and socioeconomic characteristics in urban coastal zones with tightly coupled human-nature interactions is not fully understood. Based on the Coastal Vulnerability model of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) tool, a holistic framework for assessing coastal vulnerability to multiple hazards (sea level rise, waves and storm surge) was developed by integrating ecological, physical and socioeconomic factors into a single spatial representation and applied to the coast of Shenzhen, China. Based on the levels of biophysical exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of coastal communities, a three-dimensional decision matrix was proposed for planning location-specific interventions. Results show that approximately 15% of the coastline were categorized as having high vulnerability. Spatial vulnerability heterogeneity was found within and across the coastal districts, with Yantian grouped into the most vulnerable district. The biophysical exposure has greater influences on the overall vulnerability than either sensitivity or adaptive capacity. This study highlights the significance of complex interactions between natural ecosystems and socioeconomic conditions in driving vulnerability and suggests that combined natural-based defenses and socioeconomic factors contribute to lower vulnerability. The results can help decision-makers prioritize coastal zones for interventions and identifying adaptive strategies that target drivers of vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid31781868, year = {2020}, author = {Siebert, J and Ciobanu, M and Schädler, M and Eisenhauer, N}, title = {Climate change and land use induce functional shifts in soil nematode communities.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {192}, number = {1}, pages = {281-294}, pmid = {31781868}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {FZT118//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Nematoda ; Plants ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Land-use intensification represents one major threat to the diversity and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. In the face of concurrent climate change, concerns are growing about the ability of intensively managed agroecosystems to ensure stable food provisioning, as they may be particularly vulnerable to climate extreme-induced harvest losses and pest outbreaks. Extensively managed systems, in contrast, were shown to mitigate climate change based on plant diversity-mediated effects, such as higher functional redundancy or asynchrony of species. In this context, the maintenance of soils is essential to sustain key ecosystem functions such as nutrient cycling, pest control, and crop yield. Within the highly diverse soil fauna, nematodes represent an important group as their trophic spectrum ranges from detritivores to predators and they allow inferences to the overall state of the ecosystem (bioindicators). Here, we investigated the effects of simulated climate change and land-use intensity on the diversity and abundance of soil nematode functional groups and functional indices in two consecutive years. We revealed that especially land use induced complex shifts in the nematode community with strong seasonal dynamics, while future climate led to weaker effects. Strikingly, the high nematode densities associated with altered climatic conditions and intensive land use were a consequence of increased densities of opportunists and potential pest species (i.e., plant feeders). This coincided with a less diverse and less structured community with presumably reduced capabilities to withstand environmental stress. These degraded soil food web conditions represent a potential threat to ecosystem functioning and underline the importance of management practices that preserve belowground organisms.}, }
@article {pmid31780706, year = {2019}, author = {Clairbaux, M and Fort, J and Mathewson, P and Porter, W and Strøm, H and Grémillet, D}, title = {Climate change could overturn bird migration: Transarctic flights and high-latitude residency in a sea ice free Arctic.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {17767}, pmid = {31780706}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; *Animal Migration ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Birds/physiology ; Breeding ; *Charadriiformes/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Energy Metabolism ; Global Warming ; *Ice Cover ; }, abstract = {Climate models predict that by 2050 the Arctic Ocean will be sea ice free each summer. Removing this barrier between the Atlantic and the Pacific will modify a wide range of ecological processes, including bird migration. Using published information, we identified 29 arctic-breeding seabird species, which currently migrate in the North Atlantic and could shift to a transarctic migration towards the North Pacific. We also identified 24 arctic-breeding seabird species which may shift from a migratory strategy to high-arctic year-round residency. To illustrate the biogeographical consequences of such drastic migratory shifts, we performed an in-depth study of little auks (Alle alle), the most numerous artic seabird. Coupling species distribution models and climatic models, we assessed the adequacy of future wintering and breeding areas for transarctic migrants and high-arctic year-round residents. Further, we used a mechanistic bioenergetics model (Niche Mapper), to compare the energetic costs of current little auk migration in the North Atlantic with potential transarctic and high-arctic residency strategies. Surprisingly, our results indicate that transarctic little auk migration, from the North Atlantic towards the North Pacific, may only be half as costly, energetically, than high-arctic residency or migration to the North Atlantic. Our study illustrates how global warming may radically modify the biogeography of migratory species, and provides a general methodological framework linking migratory energetics and spatial ecology.}, }
@article {pmid31780168, year = {2020}, author = {He, L and Jin, N and Yu, Q}, title = {Impacts of climate change and crop management practices on soybean phenology changes in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {707}, number = {}, pages = {135638}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135638}, pmid = {31780168}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Seasons ; *Glycine max ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Crop phenology is determined by both climatic factors and agronomic management practices such as sowing date and cultivar characteristics. Exploring the interactive effects of climate change and crop management practices on crop phenology can be used to devise adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change. The objectives of this study were to: 1) examined trends in soybean (Glycine max L.) phenological development in China from 1981 to 2010; 2) isolate and quantify impacts of climate change and crop management on changes in soybean phenology; 3) determine the relative contribution of climate change and crop management to observed changes in soybean phenology; and 4) determine the relative contribution of temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours to changes in soybean phenology. Changes in soybean phenology were observed across the major soybean producing area of eastern China during 1981-2010. Observed dates of sowing, emergence, anthesis, and maturity were delayed by an average of 1.78, 0.83, 0.19, and 0.62 days decade[-1], respectively. Additionally, the lengths of the vegetative growth period and the soybean growing season were shortened by an average of 0.62 and 1.16 days decade[-1], respectively. Conversely, the reproductive period was lengthened by an average of 0.43 days decade[-1]. Crop management practices had greater influence on sowing, emergence, and maturity dates than climate change. The direction of the changes to phenology trends created by management and climate change were opposite to each other. The relative influence of climate change on dates of anthesis, lengths of the vegetative and reproductive growth periods and growing season was larger than the influence of crop management practices. Mean temperature was the dominant climatic factor influencing most soybean phenological stages and phases. Delayed sowing dates and use of longer-duration cultivars are management adaptations that farmers have used to adapt to climate change occurring in past decades and that can continue to be used. These results indicate that farmers have a wider sowing window in spring and can select cultivars with long growing season duration and frost-tolerance to mitigate detrimental effects of a future warmer climate.}, }
@article {pmid31779916, year = {2020}, author = {Schlautman, B and Diaz-Garcia, L and Barriball, S}, title = {Morphometric approaches to promote the use of exotic germplasm for improved food security and resilience to climate change: a kura clover example.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {290}, number = {}, pages = {110319}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2019.110319}, pmid = {31779916}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; *Plant Breeding ; Seed Bank ; Trifolium/*anatomy &amp; histology/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Adaptation of agriculture to climate change and its associated ecological pressures will require new crops, novel trait combinations, and previously unknown phenotypic attributes to deploy in climate resilient cropping systems. Genebanks, a primary source of exotic germplasm for novel crops and breeding materials, need comprehensive methods to detect novel and unknown phenotypes without a priori information about the species or trait under consideration. We demonstrate how persistent homology (PH) and elliptical Fourier descriptors (EFD), two morphometric techniques easily applied to image-based data, can serve this purpose by cataloging leaf morphology in the USDA NPGS kura clover collection and demarcating a leaf morphospace for the species. Additionally, we identify a set of representative accessions spanning the leaf morphospace and propose they serve as a kura clover core collection. The core collection will be a framework for monitoring the effects of climate change on kura clover in situ diversity and determining the role of ex situ accessions in modern agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid31776507, year = {2019}, author = {Dance, A}, title = {These corals could survive climate change - and help save the world's reefs.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {575}, number = {7784}, pages = {580-582}, pmid = {31776507}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Coral Reefs ; }, }
@article {pmid31776351, year = {2019}, author = {Bender, IMA and Kissling, WD and Böhning-Gaese, K and Hensen, I and Kühn, I and Nowak, L and Töpfer, T and Wiegand, T and Dehling, DM and Schleuning, M}, title = {Projected impacts of climate change on functional diversity of frugivorous birds along a tropical elevational gradient.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {17708}, pmid = {31776351}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Herbivory ; Magnoliopsida/physiology ; Seed Dispersal ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Climate change forces many species to move their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations. Resulting immigration or emigration of species might lead to functional changes, e.g., in the trait distribution and composition of ecological assemblages. Here, we combined approaches from biogeography (species distribution models; SDMs) and community ecology (functional diversity) to investigate potential effects of climate-driven range changes on frugivorous bird assemblages along a 3000 m elevational gradient in the tropical Andes. We used SDMs to model current and projected future occurrence probabilities of frugivorous bird species from the lowlands to the tree line. SDM-derived probabilities of occurrence were combined with traits relevant for seed dispersal of fleshy-fruited plants to calculate functional dispersion (FDis; a measure of functional diversity) for current and future bird assemblages. Comparisons of FDis between current and projected future assemblages showed consistent results across four dispersal scenarios, five climate models and two representative concentration pathways. Projections indicated a decrease of FDis in the lowlands, an increase of FDis at lower mid-elevations and little changes at high elevations. This suggests that functional dispersion responds differently to global warming at different elevational levels, likely modifying avian seed dispersal functions and plant regeneration in forest ecosystems along tropical mountains.}, }
@article {pmid31774852, year = {2019}, author = {Oliveira, AGd and Bailly, D and Cassemiro, FAS and Couto, EVD and Bond, N and Gilligan, D and Rangel, TF and Agostinho, AA and Kennard, MJ}, title = {Coupling environment and physiology to predict effects of climate change on the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish assemblages in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {e0225128}, pmid = {31774852}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Demography ; Fishes/*classification/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {This study uses species distribution modeling and physiological and functional traits to predict the impacts of climate change on native freshwater fish in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. We modelled future changes in taxonomic and functional diversity in 2050 and 2080 for two scenarios of carbon emissions, identifying areas of great interest for conservation. Climatic-environmental variables were used to model the range of 23 species of native fish under each scenario. The consensus model, followed by the physiological filter of lethal temperature was retained for interpretation. Our study predicts a severe negative impact of climate change on both taxonomic and functional components of ichthyofauna of the Murray-Darling Basin. There was a predicted marked contraction of species ranges under both scenarios. The predictions showed loss of climatically suitable areas, species and functional characters. There was a decrease in areas with high values of functional richness, dispersion and uniqueness. Some traits are predicted to be extirpated, especially in the most pessimistic scenario. The climatic refuges for fish fauna are predicted to be in the southern portion of the basin, in the upper Murray catchment. Incorporating future predictions about the distribution of ichthyofauna in conservation management planning will enhance resilience to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31773321, year = {2020}, author = {El Yaacoubi, A and El Jaouhari, N and Bourioug, M and El Youssfi, L and Cherroud, S and Bouabid, R and Chaoui, M and Abouabdillah, A}, title = {Potential vulnerability of Moroccan apple orchard to climate change-induced phenological perturbations: effects on yields and fruit quality.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {64}, number = {3}, pages = {377-387}, pmid = {31773321}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Flowers ; Fruit ; *Malus ; Morocco ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Utah ; }, abstract = {Climatic factors are of a big importance for the determination of phenological stages of several fruit tree species, including apple, during the pre- and post-blooming periods causing their modifications and consequently affecting the fruit quality and productivity. This study aimed to identify the important dormancy phases (chilling and forcing periods) involved in determination of the flowering time in Gala apple trees in order to estimate temperature and chill/heat requirements, useful to assess the effect of climatic factors and phenological modifications on apple productivity and quality. Phenological and climatic data (temperatures, rainfall, irrigation, chilling and heat requirements) were collected, calculated, and measured from orchard in Imouzzer-Kandar, Morocco. Fruit productivity and quality parameters (total yield, fruit weight, size, firmness, and sweetness) were measured. Results showed a prolonged chilling period basing on the pre-blooming phases identified using partial least squares regression. Inadequate chill during warm seasons (insufficient chilling requirements) induces some phenological perturbations: late flowering, extended flowering duration, and period from flowering to harvesting. These phenological anomalies affect negatively the fruit quality of apple as a cause of inadequate climatic factors, mainly temperature and chilling requirements during the chilling period. Our findings demonstrated that sufficient chilling and heat requirements correlate positively with fruit weight, size, and firmness, although the low irrigation applied during the period from flowering to the harvesting times. In unfavorable conditions, total yield and fruit sweetness could be improved by supplementary irrigation during the same period. Practically, chilling requirements of 645-677 chill hours, 709-1157 chill units, and 43.4-55.2 chill portions according to 0-7 °C, Utah model, and Dynamic model respectively and heat requirements of 26,290-27,057 growing degree hours are sufficient for good fruit quality. These are equivalent to temperature of 9.3-9.9 °C during the chilling period and 11.1-12.5 °C during the forcing period. These findings are useful for eventual management measures in order to improve apple production in their cropping area. At long terms, we propose necessity of rearrangement of high-chill apple varieties by low-chill cultivars as a way of apple crop adaptation to climate variations.}, }
@article {pmid31772006, year = {2019}, author = {Branch, O and Wulfmeyer, V}, title = {Reply to Wang and D'Odorico: On the sustainability of large-scale desert plantations as a partial solution for climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {50}, pages = {24927-24928}, pmid = {31772006}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Desert Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid31771782, year = {2020}, author = {Costa, S and Coppola, F and Pretti, C and Intorre, L and Meucci, V and Soares, AMVM and Freitas, R and Solé, M}, title = {The influence of climate change related factors on the response of two clam species to diclofenac.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {189}, number = {}, pages = {109899}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2019.109899}, pmid = {31771782}, issn = {1090-2414}, mesh = {Animals ; Antioxidants/metabolism ; Biomarkers/metabolism ; Bivalvia/drug effects ; *Climate Change ; Diclofenac/*toxicity ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oxidative Stress/drug effects ; Seafood ; Seawater/chemistry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {Diclofenac (DIC) is one of the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) with higher consumption rates, used in both human and veterinary medicine. Previous studies already demonstrated the presence of this drug in aquatic environments and adverse effects towards inhabiting organisms. However, with the predictions of ocean acidification and warming, the impacts induced by DIC may differ from what is presently known and can be species-dependent. Thus, the present study aimed to comparatively assess the effects caused by DIC in the clams Ruditapes philippinarum and Ruditapes decussatus and evaluate if these impacts were influenced by pH and temperature. For this, organisms were acclimated for 30 days at two different temperature and pH (control conditions: pH 8.1, 17 °C; climate change forecasted scenario: pH 7.7, 20 °C) in the absence of drugs (experimental period I) followed by 7 days exposure under the same water physical parameters but in absence or presence of the pharmaceutical drug (at 1 μg/L, experimental period II). Biochemical responses covering metabolic capacity, oxidative stress and damage-related biomarkers were contrasted in clams at the end of the second experimental period. The results showed that under actual conditions, R. philippinarum individuals exposed to DIC presented enhanced antioxidant activities and reduced their respiration rate compared with non-contaminated clams. When exposed to the predicted climate change conditions, a similar response was observed in contaminated clams, but in this case clams increased their metabolic activities probably to fight the stress caused by the combination of both stressors. When R. decussatus was exposed to DIC, even at actual pH and temperature conditions, their antioxidant defences were also elevated but their baseline enzymatic activities were also naturally higher in respect to R. philippinarum. Although clams may use different strategies to prevent DIC damage, both clam species showed under low pH and high temperature limited oxidative stress impacts in line with a lower DIC bioaccumulation. The present findings reveal that predicted climate change related factors may not enhance the impacts of DIC in Ruditapes clams in a species-dependent manner although both displayed particular mechanisms to face stress.}, }
@article {pmid31771563, year = {2019}, author = {Ghazy, NA and Gotoh, T and Suzuki, T}, title = {Impact of global warming scenarios on life-history traits of Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae).}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {48}, pmid = {31771563}, issn = {1472-6785}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Global Warming ; *Solanum lycopersicum ; *Mites ; Temperature ; *Tetranychidae ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The tomato red spider mite, Tetranychus evansi Baker &amp; Pritchard (Acari: Tetranychidae), is an agricultural pest of solanaceous crops. Although T. evansi is of South American subtropical origin, it has recently expanded its distribution range to many tropical and temperate areas around the world. Its potential distribution range in response to scenarios of global warming was recently modeled, confirming its current and possible future distributions. Here, we experimentally investigated the biological traits of T. evansi in the context of the current and future global warming (2100) scenarios. Using an environmental simulation system, we tested the life-history traits of T. evansi under current summer temperatures (as of June, July, and August 2016) and under expected temperature increases based on two IPCC scenarios: RCP2.6 (+ 1 °C) and RCP8.5 (+ 3.7 °C). The mites were introduced into each scenario on 1 June and their sequential progeny were used for testing in each following month.<br><br>RESULTS: The mite could develop and reproduce under all scenarios. There was a decrease in the duration of lifespan and female fecundity at RCP8.5 during June and August, but this may be compensated for by the high intrinsic rate of increase, which implies faster population growth and shorter generation time.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our study and other reports reveal the high adaptability of T. evansi to a wide range of summer temperatures; this may explain its current distribution. We anticipate that global warming will favor the spread of T. evansi and may further expand its distribution to a large area of the globe. These findings should be of ecological and practical relevance for designing prevention and control strategies.}, }
@article {pmid31767760, year = {2019}, author = {Sperry, JS and Venturas, MD and Todd, HN and Trugman, AT and Anderegg, WRL and Wang, Y and Tai, X}, title = {The impact of rising CO2 and acclimation on the response of US forests to global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {51}, pages = {25734-25744}, pmid = {31767760}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Algorithms ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Droughts ; Forests ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; *Trees/metabolism/physiology ; United States ; }, abstract = {The response of forests to climate change depends in part on whether the photosynthetic benefit from increased atmospheric CO2 (∆Ca = future minus historic CO2) compensates for increased physiological stresses from higher temperature (∆T). We predicted the outcome of these competing responses by using optimization theory and a mechanistic model of tree water transport and photosynthesis. We simulated current and future productivity, stress, and mortality in mature monospecific stands with soil, species, and climate sampled from 20 continental US locations. We modeled stands with and without acclimation to ∆Ca and ∆T, where acclimated forests adjusted leaf area, photosynthetic capacity, and stand density to maximize productivity while avoiding stress. Without acclimation, the ∆Ca-driven boost in net primary productivity (NPP) was compromised by ∆T-driven stress and mortality associated with vascular failure. With acclimation, the ∆Ca-driven boost in NPP and stand biomass (C storage) was accentuated for cooler futures but negated for warmer futures by a ∆T-driven reduction in NPP and biomass. Thus, hotter futures reduced forest biomass through either mortality or acclimation. Forest outcomes depended on whether projected climatic ∆Ca/∆T ratios were above or below physiological thresholds that neutralized the negative impacts of warming. Critically, if forests do not acclimate, the ∆Ca/∆T must be above ca 89 ppm⋅°C[-1] to avoid chronic stress, a threshold met by 55% of climate projections. If forests do acclimate, the ∆Ca/∆T must rise above ca 67 ppm⋅°C[-1] for NPP and biomass to increase, a lower threshold met by 71% of projections.}, }
@article {pmid31767315, year = {2020}, author = {Rivadeneira Vera, JF and Zambrano Mera, YE and Pérez-Martín, M&#xc1;}, title = {Adapting water resources systems to climate change in tropical areas: Ecuadorian coast.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {703}, number = {}, pages = {135554}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135554}, pmid = {31767315}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to increase rainfall and temperature in the tropical areas of the Ecuadorian coast. The increase in temperature will also increase evapotranspiration therefore, future water balance on Ecuadorian coast will have a slight variation. Changes in precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration will produce an increase in the water requirements for current crops, so an imbalance in the water resources systems between natural resources and water demands is expected. This study presents water resources management as an adaptation measure to climate change for reducing vulnerability in tropical areas. Twelve bias-corrected climate projections are used, from: two AR5 General Circulation Models (GCMs), two Representative Concentration Pathways, 4.5-8.5 scenarios, and three time periods, short-term (2010-2039), medium-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099). These data were incorporated into the Lumped Témez Hydrological Model. Climate change scenarios predict for the long-term period both a mean rainfall and temperature increases up to 22%-2.8 °C, respectively. Besides, the potential evapotranspiration will increase until 12% by Penman-Monteith method and 60% by Thornthwaite method. Therefore, natural water resources will finally have an increase of 19% [8-30%]. Additionally, water requirements for crops will increase around 4% and 45%. As this research shows, in tropical regions, currently viable water resources systems could become unsustainable under climate change scenarios. To guarantee the water supply in the future additional measures are required as reservoir operation rules and irrigation efficiency improvement of system from 0.43 to 0.65, which it involves improving the distribution and application system. In study area future irrigation areas have been estimated for 13,268 ha, which under climate change scenarios is unsustainable, only 11,500 ha could be expanded with a very high irrigation efficiency of 0.73. Therefore, in tropical areas the effect of climate change on expansion projects for irrigated areas should be considered to ensure the functioning systems.}, }
@article {pmid31766851, year = {2020}, author = {Li, M and Wiedmann, T and Hadjikakou, M}, title = {Enabling Full Supply Chain Corporate Responsibility: Scope 3 Emissions Targets for Ambitious Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {54}, number = {1}, pages = {400-411}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b05245}, pmid = {31766851}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Forestry ; *Greenhouse Gases ; }, abstract = {There is building consensus that nonstate actors have the potential to drive more ambitious action toward climate targets than governments, thus driving the necessary transition to ensure that humanity remains within a safe operating space. These bottom-up mitigation activities, however, require individual targets on both direct and indirect (upstream) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to reconcile trade-offs between global and local sustainability goals. Here we use a scenario-driven approach based on a global multiregional input-output (GMRIO) model to develop scope 3 emission reduction targets for individual economic sectors, comparable across countries and geographies. Under an ambitious carbon mitigation scenario for 2035 (that follows a trajectory of 1.75 °C total warming by 2100), global upstream scope 3 emission intensities need to be reduced by an additional 54% compared to a baseline scenario with reference technology. On a sectoral basis, this is equivalent to a 58-67% reduction in energy, transport, and materials, a 50-52% reduction in manufacturing, services, and buildings, and a 39% reduction in agriculture, forestry, and other land use. By aligning indirect supply chain targets with ambitious carbon mitigation scenarios, our approach can be used by nonstate actors to set actionable scope 3 targets and to build climate-compatible business models.}, }
@article {pmid31763488, year = {2019}, author = {Adzawla, W and Azumah, SB and Anani, PY and Donkoh, SA}, title = {Gender perspectives of climate change adaptation in two selected districts of Ghana.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {e02854}, pmid = {31763488}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {This study analyzed gender differences in climate adaptation by farming households in Ghana. This involved 300 farmers from two districts of Ghana and the data analyzed using descriptive statistics. The results showed severer climate impacts on the livelihoods of females than males in Ghana. On the contrary, the adaptive capacity of males was found to be higher than that of females. This was supported by the observed differences in gender climate adaptation where both male heads and male household members had higher mean climate adaptations than both female heads and female household members. Overall, the climate adaptation strategies mostly adopted by both males and females include changing planting dates, row planting, planting early maturing and drought tolerant seed varieties, mixed farming, intercropping and refiling of farm plots. Except for zero tillage and intercropping, male farmers had high adoption levels than female farmers. It is concluded that the observed gender adaptation differences were due to the levels and intensity of adoption other than differences in the type of strategies adopted by the different gender groups. The Ministry of Food and Agriculture should consider integrating climate adaptation policies into current agricultural policies such as "planting for food and jobs" policy.}, }
@article {pmid31762521, year = {2019}, author = {Dagan, G and Stier, P and Watson-Parris, D}, title = {Analysis of the Atmospheric Water Budget for Elucidating the Spatial Scale of Precipitation Changes Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {46}, number = {17-18}, pages = {10504-10511}, pmid = {31762521}, issn = {0094-8276}, abstract = {Global mean precipitation changes due to climate change were previously shown to be relatively small and well constrained by the energy budget. However, local precipitation changes can be much more significant. In this paper we propose that for large enough scales, for which the water budget is closed (precipitation [P] roughly equals evaporation [E]), changes in P approach the small global mean value. However, for smaller scales, for which P and E are not necessarily equal and convergence of water vapor still plays a role, changes in P could be much larger due to dynamical contributions. Using 40 years of two reanalysis data sets, 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and additional numerical simulations, we identify the scale of transition in the importance of the different terms in the water budget to precipitation to be ~3,500-4,000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31759834, year = {2020}, author = {Brady, JM}, title = {Global Climate Change and Human Health.}, journal = {Journal of perianesthesia nursing : official journal of the American Society of PeriAnesthesia Nurses}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {89-90}, doi = {10.1016/j.jopan.2019.08.005}, pmid = {31759834}, issn = {1532-8473}, mesh = {Climate Change/*mortality/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Health/*standards/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid32287395, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {Confronting the Pandemic Superthreat of Climate Change and Urbanization.}, journal = {Orbis}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {565-581}, doi = {10.1016/j.orbis.2019.08.006}, pmid = {32287395}, issn = {0030-4387}, }
@article {pmid32071797, year = {2019}, author = {Grossi, G and Goglio, P and Vitali, A and Williams, AG}, title = {Livestock and climate change: impact of livestock on climate and mitigation strategies.}, journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {69-76}, pmid = {32071797}, issn = {2160-6064}, }
@article {pmid32002236, year = {2019}, author = {Lacetera, N}, title = {Impact of climate change on animal health and welfare.}, journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {26-31}, pmid = {32002236}, issn = {2160-6064}, }
@article {pmid32002235, year = {2019}, author = {Rust, JM}, title = {The impact of climate change on extensive and intensive livestock production systems.}, journal = {Animal frontiers : the review magazine of animal agriculture}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {20-25}, pmid = {32002235}, issn = {2160-6064}, }
@article {pmid32159002, year = {2018}, author = {Sorensen, C and Saunik, S and Sehgal, M and Tewary, A and Govindan, M and Lemery, J and Balbus, J}, title = {Climate Change and Women's Health: Impacts and Opportunities in India.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {2}, number = {10}, pages = {283-297}, pmid = {32159002}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Climate change impacts on health, including increased exposures to heat, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and altered vector-borne disease transmission, reduced water quality, and decreased food security, affect men and women differently due to biologic, socioeconomic, and cultural factors. In India, where rapid environmental changes are taking place, climate change threatens to widen existing gender-based health disparities. Integration of a gendered perspective into existing climate, development, and disaster-risk reduction policy frameworks can decrease negative health outcomes. Modifying climate risks requires multisector coordination, improvement in data acquisition, monitoring of gender specific targets, and equitable stakeholder engagement. Empowering women as agents of social change can improve mitigation and adaptation policy interventions.}, }
@article {pmid32159018, year = {2018}, author = {Kotcher, J and Maibach, E and Montoro, M and Hassol, SJ}, title = {How Americans Respond to Information About Global Warming's Health Impacts: Evidence From a National Survey Experiment.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {262-275}, pmid = {32159018}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Americans tend to see global warming as a distant threat, but a small body of previous research suggests that information about the health implications of global warming may enhance public engagement with the issue. We sought to extend those findings with a longitudinal study that examined how Americans react to information about eight specific categories of health impacts from global warming. In winter 2017, we conducted a two-wave survey experiment using a quota sample of American adults (n = 2,254). Participants were randomly assigned to a treatment group who read eight brief essays about different categories of health impacts from global warming or to a control group who received no information. Participants answered questions before reading the essays, immediately after reading each essay and at the conclusion of all essays (treatment participants only), and 2-3 weeks later. Reading the information had small- to medium-sized effects on multiple indicators of participants' cognitive and affective engagement with global warming, especially among people who are politically moderate and somewhat conservative; some of these changes persisted 2-3 weeks later. Some impacts were seen as more novel and worrisome, including illnesses from contaminated food, water, and disease-carrying organisms. Our findings provide the most definitive evidence to date about the importance of raising awareness about the health impacts of global warming. While participants believed all of the essays as offered valuable information, educational efforts might most productively focus on impacts that are relatively less familiar and more emotionally engaging, such as food-, water-, and vector-borne illnesses.}, }
@article {pmid32099173, year = {2018}, author = {Butler, CD and Kefford, BJ}, title = {Climate change as a contributor to human conflict.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {555}, number = {7698}, pages = {587}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-03795-0}, pmid = {32099173}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32094889, year = {2018}, author = {Bai, X and Dawson, RJ and Ürge-Vorsatz, D and Delgado, GC and Salisu Barau, A and Dhakal, S and Dodman, D and Leonardsen, L and Masson-Delmotte, V and Roberts, DC and Schultz, S}, title = {Six research priorities for cities and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {555}, number = {7694}, pages = {23-25}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-02409-z}, pmid = {32094889}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32094746, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Don't jump to conclusions about climate change and civil conflict.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {554}, number = {7692}, pages = {275-276}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-01875-9}, pmid = {32094746}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32153649, year = {2018}, author = {Baker, JS and Havlík, P and Beach, R and Leclère, D and Schmid, E and Valin, H and Cole, J and Creason, J and Ohrel, S and McFarland, J}, title = {Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {32153649}, issn = {1748-9326}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the world. This approach can bias the results of impact assessments for agriculture given the importance of global trade in this sector. Due to potential impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, global supply, and prices, the net impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in each region depend not only on productivity impacts within that region, but on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity throughout the world. In this study, we apply a global model of agriculture and forestry to evaluate climate change impacts on US agriculture with and without accounting for climate change impacts in the rest of the world. In addition, we examine scenarios where trade is expanded to explore the implications for regional allocation of production, trade volumes, and prices. To our knowledge, this is one of the only attempts to explicitly quantify the relative importance of accounting for global climate change when conducting regional assessments of climate change impacts. The results of our analyses reveal substantial differences in estimated impacts on the US agricultural sector when accounting for global impacts vs. US-only impacts, particularly for commodities where the United States has a smaller share of global production. In addition, we find that freer trade can play an important role in helping to buffer regional productivity shocks.}, }
@article {pmid32094600, year = {2018}, author = {Forster, P}, title = {Homing in on a key factor of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {553}, number = {7688}, pages = {288-289}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-00480-0}, pmid = {32094600}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32080594, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {How the early bird combats climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {551}, number = {7681}, pages = {417}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-05998-3}, pmid = {32080594}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32158993, year = {2017}, author = {Muhling, BA and Jacobs, J and Stock, CA and Gaitan, CF and Saba, VS}, title = {Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high-emission climate change scenario.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {1}, number = {7}, pages = {278-296}, pmid = {32158993}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Illness caused by pathogenic strains of Vibrio bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing Vibrio habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, while projected increase in V. cholerae habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on Vibrios in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with Vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid32742077, year = {2017}, author = {Liu, X and Wu, W and Wielicki, BA and Yang, Q and Kizer, SH and Huang, X and Chen, X and Kato, S and Shea, YL and Mlynczak, MG}, title = {Spectrally Dependent CLARREO Infrared Spectrometer Calibration Requirement for Climate Change Detection.}, journal = {Journal of climate}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {3979-3998}, pmid = {32742077}, issn = {0894-8755}, support = {/SCMD-EarthScienceSystem/Science Earth Science System NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {Detecting climate trends of atmospheric temperature, moisture, cloud, and surface temperature requires accurately calibrated satellite instruments such as the Climate Absolute Radiance and Reflectivity Observatory (CLARREO). Wielicki et al. have studied the CLARREO measurement requirements for achieving climate change accuracy goals in orbit. Our study further quantifies the spectrally dependent IR instrument calibration requirement for detecting trends of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles. The temperature, water vapor, and surface skin temperature variability and the associated correlation time are derived using Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data. The results are further validated using climate model simulation results. With the derived natural variability as the reference, the calibration requirement is established by carrying out a simulation study for CLARREO observations of various atmospheric states under all-sky. We derive a 0.04 K (k=2, or 95% confidence) radiometric calibration requirement baseline using a spectral fingerprinting method. We also demonstrate that the requirement is spectrally dependent and some spectral regions can be relaxed due to the hyperspectral nature of the CLARREO instrument. We further discuss relaxing the requirement to 0.06 K (k=2) based on the uncertainties associated with the temperature and water vapor natural variability and relatively small delay in time-to-detect for trends relative to the baseline case. The methodology used in this study can be extended to other parameters (such as clouds and CO2) and other instrument configurations.}, }
@article {pmid32517413, year = {2017}, author = {Engemann, C and Schrickel, I}, title = {Trading Zones of Climate Change: Introduction.}, journal = {Berichte zur Wissenschaftsgeschichte}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {111-119}, doi = {10.1002/bewi.201701847}, pmid = {32517413}, issn = {1522-2365}, }
@article {pmid32517411, year = {2017}, author = {Schrickel, I and Engemann, C}, title = {Dealing with Climate Change: A Conversation with Paul N. Edwards and Oliver Geden.}, journal = {Berichte zur Wissenschaftsgeschichte}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {175-185}, doi = {10.1002/bewi.201701848}, pmid = {32517411}, issn = {1522-2365}, }
@article {pmid32076188, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Coral predators get a boost from climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {546}, number = {7658}, pages = {330}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00760-1}, pmid = {32076188}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32076155, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Global warming could shift rainfall patterns.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {546}, number = {7657}, pages = {189}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00638-2}, pmid = {32076155}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32158983, year = {2017}, author = {Anenberg, SC and Weinberger, KR and Roman, H and Neumann, JE and Crimmins, A and Fann, N and Martinich, J and Kinney, PL}, title = {Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {80-92}, pmid = {32158983}, issn = {2471-1403}, abstract = {Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof-of-concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present-day and climate-induced changes in oak pollen. We estimated oak pollen season length for moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994-2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, driven by epidemiologically derived concentration-response relationships. Oak pollen was associated with 21,200 (95% confidence interval, 10,000-35,200) asthma ED visits in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest U.S. in 2010, with damages valued at $10.4 million. Nearly 70% of these occurred among children age <18 years. Severe climate change could increase oak pollen season length and associated asthma ED visits by 5% and 10% on average in 2050 and 2090, with a marginal net present value through 2090 of $10.4 million (additional to the baseline value of $346.2 million). Moderate versus severe climate change could avoid >50% of the additional oak pollen-related asthma ED visits in 2090. Despite several key uncertainties and limitations, these results suggest that aeroallergens pose a substantial U.S. public health burden, that climate change could increase U.S. allergic disease incidence, and that mitigating climate change may have benefits from avoided pollen-related health impacts.}, }
@article {pmid32076180, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Global warming 'hiatus' claims are overblown.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {545}, number = {7652}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00886-2}, pmid = {32076180}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32076213, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Marine organism risks losing its skeleton thanks to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {544}, number = {7651}, pages = {397}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00647-1}, pmid = {32076213}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32076209, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {River piracy may rise thanks to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {544}, number = {7651}, pages = {396}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-017-00567-0}, pmid = {32076209}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid32818128, year = {2017}, author = {Nazarenko, L and Rind, D and Tsigaridis, K and Del Genio, AD and Kelley, M and Tausnev, N}, title = {Interactive nature of climate change and aerosol forcing.}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR}, volume = {122}, number = {6}, pages = {3457-3480}, pmid = {32818128}, issn = {2169-897X}, support = {/SCMD-EarthScienceSystem/Science Earth Science System NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {The effect of changing cloud cover on climate, based on cloud-aerosol interactions, is one of the major unknowns for climate forcing and climate sensitivity. It has two components: (1) the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate due to in situ interactions (i.e., rapid response) and (2) the effect of aerosols on the cloud feedback that arises as climate changes-climate feedback response. We examine both effects utilizing the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 to assess the indirect effect, with both mass-based and microphysical aerosol schemes, in transient twentieth century simulations. We separate the rapid response and climate feedback effects by making simulations with a coupled version of the model as well as one with no sea surface temperature or sea ice response ("atmosphere-only" simulations). We show that the indirect effect of aerosols on temperature is altered by the climate feedbacks following the ocean response, and this change differs depending upon which aerosol model is employed. Overall, the effective radiative forcing (ERF) for the "direct effect" of aerosol-radiation interaction (ERFari) ranges between -0.2 and -0.6 W m[-2] for atmosphere-only experiments, while the total effective radiative forcing, including[C0]the indirect effect (ERFari+aci) varies between about -0.4 and -1.1 W m[-2] for atmosphere-only simulations; both ranges are in agreement with those given in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013). Including the full feedback of the climate system lowers these ranges to -0.2 to -0.5 W m[-2] for ERFari and -0.3 to -0.74 W m[-2] for ERFari+aci. With both aerosol schemes, the climate change feedbacks have reduced the global average indirect radiative effect of atmospheric aerosols relative to what the emission changes would have produced, at least partially due to its effect on tropical upper tropospheric clouds.}, }
@article {pmid32355377, year = {2017}, author = {Demski, C and Capstick, S and Pidgeon, N and Sposato, RG and Spence, A}, title = {Experience of extreme weather affects climate change mitigation and adaptation responses.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {140}, number = {2}, pages = {149-164}, pmid = {32355377}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {The winter of 2013/2014 saw a series of severe storms hit the UK, leading to widespread flooding, a major emergency response and extensive media exposure. Previous research indicates that experiencing extreme weather events has the potential to heighten engagement with climate change, however the process by which this occurs remains largely unknown, and establishing a clear causal relationship from experience to perceptions is methodologically challenging. The UK winter flooding offered a natural experiment to examine this question in detail. We compare individuals personally affected by flooding (n = 162) to a nationally representative sample (n = 975). We show that direct experience of flooding leads to an overall increased salience of climate change, pronounced emotional responses and greater perceived personal vulnerability and risk perceptions. We also present the first evidence that direct flooding experience can give rise to behavioural intentions beyond individual sustainability actions, including support for mitigation policies, and personal climate adaptation in matters unrelated to the direct experience.}, }
@article {pmid32269501, year = {2017}, author = {Lorenz, S and Dessai, S and Forster, PM and Paavola, J}, title = {Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {425-435}, pmid = {32269501}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {Planning for adaptation to climate change is often regarded to be a local imperative and considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. Research has already documented some of the challenges of making climate information usable in decision-making but has not yet sufficiently reflected on the role of the wider institutional and regulatory context. This article examines the impact of the external institutional context on the use and usability of climate projections in local government through an analysis of 44 planning and climate change (adaptation) documents and 54 semi-structured interviews with planners in England and Germany conducted between July 2013 and May 2014. We show that there is little demand for climate projections in local adaptation planning in either country due to existing policy, legal and regulatory frameworks. Local government in England has not only experienced a decline in use of climate projections, but also the waning of the climate change adaptation agenda more widely, amidst changes in the planning and regulatory framework and severe budget cuts. In Germany, spatial planning makes substantial use of past and present climate data, but the strictly regulated nature of planning prevents the use of climate projections, due to their inherent uncertainties. Findings from the two countries highlight that if we are to better understand the usability of climate projections, we need to be more aware of the institutional context within which planning decisions are made. Otherwise we run the risk of continuing to provide tools and information that are of limited use within their intended context.}, }
@article {pmid32009850, year = {2017}, author = {Akter, S and Krupnik, TJ and Khanam, F}, title = {Climate change skepticism and index versus standard crop insurance demand in coastal Bangladesh.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {2456-2466}, pmid = {32009850}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {This paper investigates if climate change skepticism, farmers' fatalistic beliefs, and insurance plan design influence interest in crop weather insurance. While studies of the influence of fatalism on disaster preparedness are common, the ways in which fatalism influences climate change skepticism, and in turn affects farmers' interest in crop insurance, have not been previously investigated. An additional objective was to understand farmers' preferences for index versus standard insurance options, the former entailing damage compensation based on post-hazard assessment, the latter tying damage compensation to a set of weather parameter thresholds. A discrete choice experiment was conducted with maize farmers on a climate-risk prone island in coastal Bangladesh. Most farmers were insurance averse. Those who chose insurance were however significantly more likely to select standard as opposed to index-based insurance. Insurance demand was significantly and positively correlated with farmers' concern about the adverse livelihood impacts of climate change. Farmers who exhibited fatalistic views regarding the consequences of climate change were significantly less likely to opt for insurance of either kind. These findings imply that the prospect for farmers' investment in insurance is conditioned by their understanding of climate change risks and the utility of adaptation, in addition to insurance scheme design.}, }
@article {pmid32009688, year = {2017}, author = {Ford, JD and Labbé, J and Flynn, M and Araos, M and , }, title = {Readiness for climate change adaptation in the Arctic: a case study from Nunavut, Canada.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {145}, number = {1}, pages = {85-100}, pmid = {32009688}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {There is limited knowledge on institutional factors constraining and enabling climate change adaptation in Arctic regions, or the overall readiness of governing bodies and communities to develop, implement, and promote adaptation. This paper examines the preparedness of different levels of government to adapt in the Canadian Arctic territory of Nunavut, drawing upon semi-structured interviews with government personnel and organizations involved in adaptation. In the Government of Nunavut, there have been notable developments around adaptation planning and examples of adaptation champions, but readiness for adaptation is challenged by a number of factors including the existence of pressing socio-economic problems, and institutional and governmental barriers. Federally, there is evidence of high-level leadership on adaptation, the creation of adaptation programs, and allocation of funds for adaptation, although the focus has been mostly on researching adaptation options as opposed to supporting actual actions or policy change. The 2016 Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, and increasing emphasis on climate change federally and in the Government of Nunavut, offer opportunities for advancing adaptation, but concrete steps are needed to ensure readiness is enhanced.}, }
@article {pmid32818004, year = {2016}, author = {Schnell, JL and Prather, MJ and Josse, B and Naik, V and Horowitz, LW and Zeng, G and Shindell, DT and Faluvegi, G}, title = {Effect of climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia.}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {43}, number = {7}, pages = {3509-3518}, pmid = {32818004}, issn = {0094-8276}, support = {/SCMD-EarthScienceSystem/Science Earth Science System NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {The effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia is evaluated using present-day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models. Future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and anthropogenic ozone precursors are fixed at year-2000 levels. Climate change shifts the seasonal surface ozone peak to earlier in the year and increases the amplitude of the annual cycle. Increases in mean summertime and high-percentile ozone are generally found in polluted environments, while decreases are found in clean environments. We propose climate change augments the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions, thus reducing precursor export to neighboring downwind locations. Even with constant biogenic emissions, climate change causes the largest ozone increases at high percentiles. In most cases, air quality extreme episodes become larger and contain higher ozone levels relative to the rest of the distribution.}, }
@article {pmid32742076, year = {2016}, author = {Li, F and Vikhliaev, YV and Newman, PA and Pawson, S and Perlwitz, J and Waugh, DW and Douglass, AR}, title = {Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System - Version 5 (GEOS-5).}, journal = {Journal of climate}, volume = {29}, number = {9}, pages = {3199-3218}, pmid = {32742076}, issn = {0894-8755}, support = {/SCMD-EarthScienceSystem/Science Earth Science System NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind-stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.}, }
@article {pmid32256532, year = {2015}, author = {Zhao, D and Feng, P}, title = {Temperature increase impacts personality traits in aquatic non-native species: Implications for biological invasion under climate change.}, journal = {Current zoology}, volume = {61}, number = {6}, pages = {966-971}, doi = {10.1093/czoolo/61.6.966}, pmid = {32256532}, issn = {1674-5507}, abstract = {Climate change, such as elevated temperatures, may facilitate biological invasion. Aquatic animal systems are more vulnerable to biological invasion when the temperature rises. Animal personality also plays an important role in the possibility of successful establishment of invasive species. However, it is still unclear how personality traits of invasive species will respond to global warming. This study focuses on juveniles of red swamp crawfish Procambarus clarkii, an invasive poikilothermic species with wide distribution throughout the world, and explores how slight temperature increases influence three personality traits (activity, boldness and aggressiveness) of P. clarkii. For each personality, individual variation is to be presented in condition of the same temperature. Individual personality values can significantly increase with the subtle rising of water temperature. Significant correlations among activity, boldness and aggressiveness are found at any temperature stage, and such relationships are maintained at a similar level in the face of different temperatures. It is most likely that significant expressions of personality traits may be an ecological compensation strategy to offset increased metabolic costs when faced with small temperature increases. Aggression syndromes are formed due to stable linkages between personality traits, in order to acquire allopatric resources efficiently and establish a new population in this species.}, }
@article {pmid32287413, year = {2015}, author = {Kim, J}, title = {Comparing the economic effects of climate change and zooanthroponosis in Korea: Prerequisites for the creative economy?.}, journal = {Technological forecasting and social change}, volume = {96}, number = {}, pages = {121-129}, pmid = {32287413}, issn = {0040-1625}, abstract = {Societies in the 21st century require more proactive management of risks in many areas owing to the complexities people have built into socioeconomic systems, ranging from science and technology, economics, and finance to education, entertainment, and tourism infrastructure. All these systems thrive on stability, which can easily be challenged by unexpected risks. This study compares zooanthroponosis and climate change-induced sea level rise through a cost-benefit analysis in Korea. Borrowing from other methodological approaches, this study shows that the cost-benefit estimation is consistent with the existing macroeconomic speculations, which assume potential loss of GDP due to the two risks. This paper also presents a policy alternative of creating research institutions specializing in the two risks from a cost-benefit perspective as a prerequisite for the "Creative Economy".}, }
@article {pmid32214560, year = {2015}, author = {Moser, SC and Hart, JAF}, title = {The long arm of climate change: societal teleconnections and the future of climate change impacts studies.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {129}, number = {1}, pages = {13-26}, pmid = {32214560}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {"Societal teleconnections" - analogous to physical teleconnections such as El Niño - are human-created linkages that link activities, trends, and disruptions across large distances, such that locations spatially separated from the locus of an event can experience a variety of impacts from it nevertheless. In the climate change context, such societal teleconnections add a layer of risk that is currently neither fully appreciated in most impacts or vulnerability assessments nor in on-the-ground adaptation planning. Conceptually, societal teleconnections arise from the interactions among actors, and the institutions that guide their actions, affecting the movement of various substances through different structures and processes. Empirically, they arise out of societal interactions, including globalization, to create, amplify, and sometimes attenuate climate change vulnerabilities and impacts in regions far from those where a climatic extreme or change occurs. This paper introduces a simple but systematic way to conceptualize societal teleconnections and then highlights and explores eight unique but interrelated types of societal teleconnections with selected examples: (1) trade and economic exchange, (2) insurance and reinsurance, (3) energy systems, (4) food systems; (5) human health, (6) population migration, (7) communication, and (8) strategic alliances and military interactions. The paper encourages further research to better understand the causal chains behind socially teleconnected impacts, and to identify ways to routinely integrate their consideration in impacts/vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning to limit the risk of costly impacts.}, }
@article {pmid32669887, year = {2014}, author = {Asekun-Olarinmoye, EO and Bamidele, JO and Odu, OO and Olugbenga-Bello, AI and Abodurin, OL and Adebimpe, WO and Oladele, EA and Adeomi, AA and Adeoye, OA and Ojofeitimi, EO}, title = {Public perception of climate change and its impact on health and environment in rural southwestern Nigeria.}, journal = {Research and reports in tropical medicine}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {1-10}, pmid = {32669887}, issn = {1179-7282}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change (CC) has received extensive media attention recently, and it is currently on the international public health agenda. A study of knowledge and attitudes to climate change, most especially from rural Nigerian communities, is important for developing adaptation strategies. This is a study of public perceptions of CC and its impact on health and environment in rural southwestern Nigeria.<br><br>METHODS: This was a community-based descriptive cross-sectional study of 1,019 rural respondents using a multistage sampling method. The research instrument used was a pretested, structured, interviewer-administered questionnaire. Data were analyzed using SPSS software. &#x3c7;[2], Cram&#xe9;r's V, and Kendall's &#x3c4;-c statistics were employed in addition to fitting the data to a logistic regression model to explore associations found significant on bivariate analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Mean age of respondents was 36.9 (&#xb1;12.4) years. About 911 (89.4%) of respondents opined that there has been a change in climate in the last 10 years. Supernatural reasons were prominent among respondent-reported causes of CC. Identified risky behavior contributing to CC included smoking (10.7%), bush burning (33.4%), and tree felling (41.0%). Poor knowledge of causes but good knowledge of effects of CC were found in this study. About two-thirds of respondents had a positive attitude to causes of CC, while half had a positive attitude to the effects of CC. A significant association was found between educational status (P&#x2c2;0.001, Kendall's &#x3c4;-c=-0.042), occupational status (P&#x2c2;0.01, Kendall's &#x3c4;-c=0.088), and attitude to causes of CC. Further analysis using logistic regression showed that occupational status was significantly associated with likelihood of having a positive attitude, but educational status and marital status were not.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Rural areas of Nigeria are vulnerable to the adverse effects of CC. Respondents' poor knowledge but positive attitude to CC calls for dissemination of adequate information on CC in sustained health-promotion programs.}, }
@article {pmid32481100, year = {2013}, author = {Sherwin, GL and George, L and Kannangara, K and Tissue, DT and Ghannoum, O}, title = {Impact of industrial-age climate change on the relationship between water uptake and tissue nitrogen in eucalypt seedlings.}, journal = {Functional plant biology : FPB}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {201-212}, doi = {10.1071/FP12130}, pmid = {32481100}, issn = {1445-4416}, abstract = {This study explored reductions in tissue nitrogen concentration ([N]) at elevated CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), and changes in plant water and N uptake. Eucalyptus saligna Sm. seedlings were grown under three [CO2] levels (preindustrial (280μLL-1), current (400μLL-1) or projected (640μLL-1)) and two air temperatures (current, (current+4°C)). Gravimetric water use, leaf gas exchange and tissue dry mass and %N were determined. Solid-state 15N-NMR spectroscopy was used for determining the partitioning of N chemical groups in the dry matter fractions. Water use efficiency (WUE) improved with increasing [CO2] at ambient temperature, but strong leaf area and weak reductions in transpiration rates led to greater water use at elevated [CO2]. High temperature increased plant water use, such that WUE was not significantly stimulated by increasing [CO2] at high temperature. Total N uptake increased with increasing [CO2] but not temperature, less than the increase recorded for plant biomass. Tissue [N] decreased with rising [CO2] and at high temperature, but N use efficiency increased with rising [CO2]. Total N uptake was positively correlated with total water use and root biomass under all treatments. Growth [CO2] and temperature did not affect the partitioning of 15N among the N chemical groups. The reductions of tissue [N] with [CO2] and temperature were generic, not specific to particular N compounds. The results suggest that reductions in tissue [N] are caused by changes in root N uptake by mass flow due to altered transpiration rates at elevated [CO2] and temperature.}, }
@article {pmid32480951, year = {2011}, author = {McClean, PE and Burridge, J and Beebe, S and Rao, IM and Porch, TG}, title = {Crop improvement in the era of climate change: an integrated, multi-disciplinary approach for common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris).}, journal = {Functional plant biology : FPB}, volume = {38}, number = {12}, pages = {927-933}, doi = {10.1071/FP11102}, pmid = {32480951}, issn = {1445-4416}, abstract = {Climate change and global population increase are two converging forces that will jointly challenge researchers to design programs that ensure crop production systems meet the world's food demand. Climate change will potentially reduce productivity while a global population increase will require more food. If productivity is not improved for future climatic conditions, food insecurity may foster major economic and political uncertainty. Given the importance of grain legumes in general - common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in particular - a workshop entitled 'Improving Tolerance of Common Bean to Abiotic Stresses' was held with the goal of developing an interdisciplinary research agenda designed to take advantage of modern genotyping and breeding approaches that are coupled with large scale phenotyping efforts to improve common bean. Features of the program included a multinational phenotyping effort to evaluate the major common bean core germplasm collections and appropriate genetic populations. The phenotyping effort will emphasise the response of root and shoot traits to individual and combined stress conditions. These populations would also be genotyped using newly emerging high density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker arrays or next generation sequencing technology. Association analysis of the core collections aims to identify key loci associated with the response to the stress conditions. Companion bi-parental quantitative trait loci (QTL) experiments will act as confirmation experiments for the association analysis. The upcoming release of the genome sequence of common bean will be leveraged by utilising population genomic approaches to discover genomic regions that differentiate stress-responsive and non-responsive genotypes. The genome sequence will also enable global gene expression studies that will highlight specific molecular-based stress responses. This collective knowledge will inform the selection of parental lines to improve the efficiency of common bean improvement programs.}, }
@article {pmid32288342, year = {2010}, author = {Ford, JD and Berrang-Ford, L and King, M and Furgal, C}, title = {Vulnerability of Aboriginal health systems in Canada to climate change.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {668-680}, pmid = {32288342}, issn = {0959-3780}, abstract = {Climate change has been identified as potentially the biggest health threat of the 21st century. Canada in general has a well developed public health system and low burden of health which will moderate vulnerability. However, there is significant heterogeneity in health outcomes, and health inequality is particularly pronounced among Aboriginal Canadians. Intervention is needed to prevent, prepare for, and manage climate change effects on Aboriginal health but is constrained by a limited understanding of vulnerability and its determinants. Despite limited research on climate change and Aboriginal health, however, there is a well established literature on Aboriginal health outcomes, determinants, and trends in Canada; characteristics that will determine vulnerability to climate change. In this paper we systematically review this literature, using a vulnerability framework to identify the broad level factors constraining adaptive capacity and increasing sensitivity to climate change. Determinants identified include: poverty, technological capacity constraints, socio-political values and inequality, institutional capacity challenges, and information deficit. The magnitude and nature of these determinants will be distributed unevenly within and between Aboriginal populations necessitating place-based and regional level studies to examine how these broad factors will affect vulnerability at lower levels. The study also supports the need for collaboration across all sectors and levels of government, open and meaningful dialogue between policy makers, scientists, health professionals, and Aboriginal communities, and capacity building at a local level, to plan for climate change. Ultimately, however, efforts to reduce the vulnerability of Aboriginal Canadians to climate change and intervene to prevent, reduce, and manage climate-sensitive health outcomes, will fail unless the broader determinants of socio-economic and health inequality are addressed.}, }
@article {pmid32362760, year = {2009}, author = {Lee, DS and Fahey, DW and Forster, PM and Newton, PJ and Wit, RCN and Lim, LL and Owen, B and Sausen, R}, title = {Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century.}, journal = {Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)}, volume = {43}, number = {22}, pages = {3520-3537}, pmid = {32362760}, issn = {1352-2310}, abstract = {Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NO x), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr[-1] between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000-2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ∼55 mW m[-2] (23-87 mW m[-2], 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3-10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005-78 mW m[-2] (38-139 mW m[-2], 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2-14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7-3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0-4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4-4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO2 emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.}, }
@article {pmid31766807, year = {2008}, author = {Bridgham, SD and Pastor, J and Dewey, B and Weltzin, JF and Updegraff, K}, title = {RAPID CARBON RESPONSE OF PEATLANDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {89}, number = {11}, pages = {3041-3048}, doi = {10.1890/08-0279.1}, pmid = {31766807}, issn = {1939-9170}, abstract = {Peatlands comprise a globally important carbon pool whose input-output budgets may be significantly altered by climate change. To experimentally determine the sensitivity of the carbon stored in peatlands to climate change, we constructed a mesocosm facility with 54 peat monoliths from a bog and fen in northern Minnesota, USA. These mesocosms were subjected to nine combinations of heat and water-table levels over eight years. Bog mesocosms initially accumulated soil carbon, with greater gains in wetter mesocosms, but after three years no further water-table effects occurred. In contrast, fen mesocosms lost or had no change in soil carbon, with the greatest losses in drier and warmer mesocosms. Changes in soil-carbon storage resulted in concomitant changes in water-table depth, so that water-table depths were similar to those in the natural source sites by the end of the experiment regardless of the initial treatment. These results were primarily due to water-table effects on Sphagnum moss production in the bog mesocosms and to a more complicated suite of warming and water-table effects on production and decomposition in the fen mesocosms. We show that different kinds of peatlands will rapidly gain or lose carbon following hydrological disturbance until they return to their characteristic ("equilibrium") water-table levels. Our results illustrate the potential for a rapid homeostatic response of these ecosystems to future climate change at small spatial scales. Climate change will likely also interact with other carbon cycle-hydrological feedbacks at the scale of the entire peatland over longer time frames and larger spatial scales.}, }
@article {pmid31766801, year = {2008}, author = {Poloczanska, ES and Hawkins, SJ and Southward, AJ and Burrows, MT}, title = {MODELING THE RESPONSE OF POPULATIONS OF COMPETING SPECIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {89}, number = {11}, pages = {3138-3149}, doi = {10.1890/07-1169.1}, pmid = {31766801}, issn = {1939-9170}, abstract = {Biotic interactions will modulate species' responses to climate change. Many approaches to predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity so far have been based purely on a climate envelope approach and have not considered direct and indirect species interactions. Using a long-term observational data set (>30 years) of competing intertidal barnacle species, we built a hierarchy of age-structured two-taxa population models (Semibalanus balanoides vs. Chthamalus montagui and C. stellatus combined as one taxon) to test if the presence of a dominant competitor can mediate climatic influence on the subordinate species. Models were parameterized using data from populations on the south coast of southwest England and verified by hindcasting using independent north coast population data. Recruitment of the dominant competitor, S. balanoides, is driven by temperature. The mechanisms of competition explored included simple space preemption and temperature-driven interference competition. The results indicate that interspecific competition between juvenile barnacles is important in regulating chthamalid density but not that of the dominant competitor S. balanoides. Simulations were carried out using alternative future climate scenarios to predict barnacle population abundance over the next century. Under all emission scenarios, the cold-water S. balanoides is predicted to virtually disappear from southwest England by the 2050s, leading to the competitive release of Chthamalus throughout the entire region and thereby substantially increasing its abundance and occupied habitat (by increasing vertical range on the shore). Our results demonstrate that climate change can profoundly affect the abundance and distribution of species through both the direct effects of temperature on survival, and also by altering important negative interactions through shifting competitive balances and essentially removing dominant competitors or predators. Climate change impacts on organisms are unlikely to lead only to straightforward, easily predictable changes in population size and distribution. The complex, indirect effects of climate change need to be taken into account if we are to accurately forecast the long-term effects of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid32688820, year = {2008}, author = {Munns, R}, title = {Editorial: Food security, climate change and biofuels: Integrative plant biology is now in the spotlight.}, journal = {Functional plant biology : FPB}, volume = {35}, number = {8}, pages = {iii}, doi = {10.1071/FPv35n8_ED}, pmid = {32688820}, issn = {1445-4416}, }
@article {pmid32688800, year = {2008}, author = {Tissue, DT and Ellsworth, DS}, title = {Foreword: Measuring impacts of climate change on plants.}, journal = {Functional plant biology : FPB}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {iii-iv}, doi = {10.1071/FPv35n6_FO}, pmid = {32688800}, issn = {1445-4416}, }
@article {pmid32214561, year = {2008}, author = {Ebi, KL}, title = {Healthy people 2100: modeling population health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {88}, number = {1}, pages = {5-19}, pmid = {32214561}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Quantitatively estimating the potential health impacts of climate change is facilitated by multi-determinant models that integrate micro- to macro-level exposures and processes that influence disease occurrence, including the public health responses, in order to identify regions and population groups that may be more vulnerable. Although progress has been made in constructing systems-based models, considerable work is required to address key issues of quantification of the climate-health associations and the factors that affect those associations; specification of model(s) appropriate to incorporate climate change, adaptation, and mitigation policies; incorporation of thresholds; incorporation of pathways of public health development; and quantification of uncertainties.}, }
@article {pmid32288341, year = {2005}, author = {Becken, S}, title = {Harmonising climate change adaptation and mitigation: The case of tourist resorts in Fiji.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {381-393}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.08.001}, pmid = {32288341}, issn = {0959-3780}, abstract = {Tourism in island states is vulnerable to climate change because it may result in detrimental changes in relation to extreme events, sea level rise, transport and communication interruption. This study analyses adaptation to climate change by tourist resorts in Fiji, as well as their potential to reduce climate change through reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. Interviews, site visitations, and an accommodation survey were undertaken. Many operators already prepare for climate-related events and therefore adapt to potential impacts resulting from climate change. Reducing emissions is not important to operators; however, decreasing energy costs for economic reasons is practised. Recommendations for further initiatives are made and synergies between the adaptation and mitigation approaches are explored.}, }
@article {pmid31759711, year = {2020}, author = {Liu, M and Xu, X and Jiang, Y and Huang, Q and Huo, Z and Liu, L and Huang, G}, title = {Responses of crop growth and water productivity to climate change and agricultural water-saving in arid region.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {703}, number = {}, pages = {134621}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134621}, pmid = {31759711}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change and associated elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and rising temperature have become a great challenge to agricultural production especially in arid and semiarid regions, and a great concern to scientists worldwide. Thus, it is very important to assess the response of crop growth and water productivity to climate change projections, which in turn can help devise adaptive strategies to mitigate their impact. An agro-hydrological model with well consideration of CO2 effects on both the stomatal conductance and leaf area was established. The model was well calibrated and validated using the data collected from the middle oasis of Heihe River basin, northwest China, which was selected as a typical arid region. Simulations of soil water contents and crop growth matched well with observations. Then various scenarios were designed with considering three climate change alternatives (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and three agricultural water-saving alternatives in the context of irrigation water availability being constant. Responses of crop growth and water productivity were predicted for thirty years from 2018 to 2047. As compared to current situation, there would be a reduction of 3.4-8.6% in crop yield during the period of 2018-2027 and an increase of 1.5-18.7% in crop yield during the period of 2028-2047 for seed corn, and an increase of 7.4-26.7% in crop yield during the period of 2018-2047 for spring wheat, respectively. Moreover, results showed an increase in water productivity ranged from 14.3% to 44.5% for seed corn and from 34.7% to 52.0% for spring wheat, respectively. Furthermore, adaptive strategies to climate change were recommended for the seed corn and spring wheat, respectively. Our results are expected to provide implications for devising adaptive strategies to changing environments in other arid and irrigation-fed areas.}, }
@article {pmid31757512, year = {2020}, author = {Vilela, P and Jácome, G and Kim, SY and Nam, K and Yoo, C}, title = {Population response modeling and habitat suitability of Cobitis choii fish species in South Korea for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {189}, number = {}, pages = {109949}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2019.109949}, pmid = {31757512}, issn = {1090-2414}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cypriniformes/*growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Models, Biological ; Republic of Korea ; Rivers/chemistry ; Water Pollutants/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {Endangered species ecosystems require appropriate monitoring for assessing population growth related to the emerging pollutants in their habitat conditions. The response of population growth of Cobitis choii, an endangered fish species, under the exposure to emerging pollutants present in the Geum River Basin of South Korea was studied. Toxicity models of concentration addition (CA), independent action (IA), and concentration addition-independent action (CAIA) were implemented utilizing the concentration of a set of 25 chemicals recorded in the study area. Thus, a population-level response analysis was developed based on the abundance of Cobitis choii for period 2011-2015. The results were compared showing that the CA and IA models were the most conservative approaches for the prediction of growth rate. Further, a standard abnormality index (SAI) and habitat suitability (HS) indicators based on the climate, habitat, and abundance data were presented to completely analyze the population growth of the species. Suitability of the species growth was most probable for year 2015 for the variables of air temperature and land surface temperature. A spatial analysis was complementarily presented to visualize the correlation of variables for the best suitability of the species growth. This study presents a methodology for the analysis of the ecosystem's suitability for Cobitis choii growth and its assessment of the chemicals present in Geum River stream.}, }
@article {pmid31756954, year = {2019}, author = {Abdullah, ASM and Dalal, K and Halim, A and Rahman, AF and Biswas, A}, title = {Effects of Climate Change and Maternal Morality: Perspective from Case Studies in the Rural Area of Bangladesh.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {23}, pages = {}, pmid = {31756954}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Female ; *Floods ; Focus Groups ; Health Facilities ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Maternal Health Services ; *Maternal Mortality ; Pregnancy ; Pregnancy Complications ; Pregnant Women ; Rural Population ; }, abstract = {This study explored the community perception of maternal deaths influenced by natural disaster (flood), and the practice of maternal complications during natural disaster among the rural population in Bangladesh. It also explored the challenges faced by the community for providing healthcare and referring the pregnant women experiencing complications during flood disaster. Three focus group discussions (FGDs) and eight in-depth interviews (IDIs) were conducted in the marginalized rural communities in the flood-prone Khaliajhuri sub-district, Netrakona district, Bangladesh. Flood is one of the major risk factors for influencing maternal death. Pregnant women seriously suffer from maternal complications, lack of antenatal checkup, and lack of doctors during flooding. During the time of delivery, it is difficult to find a skilled attendant, and referring the patient with delivery complications to the healthcare facility. Boats are the only mode of transport. The majority of maternal deaths occur on the boats during transfer from the community to the hospital. Rural people feel that the maternal deaths influenced by natural disaster are natural phenomena. Pre-preparation is needed to support pregnant women during disasters. There is unawareness of maternal health, related care, and complications during disasters among local health service providers and volunteers.}, }
@article {pmid31756790, year = {2019}, author = {Young, D and Zégre, N and Edwards, P and Fernandez, R}, title = {Assessing streamflow sensitivity of forested headwater catchments to disturbance and climate change in the central Appalachian Mountains region, USA.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {694}, number = {}, pages = {133382}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.188}, pmid = {31756790}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Forest headwater catchments are critical sources of water, but climate change and disturbance may threaten their ability to produce reliable and abundant water supplies. Quantifying how climate change and forest disturbances individually and interactively alter streamflow provides important insights into the stability and availability of water derived from headwater catchments that are particularly sensitive to change. We used long-term water balance data, forest inventory measurements, and a multiple-methods approach using Budyko decomposition and paired catchment models to assess how climate change and forest disturbances interact to alter streamflow in five headwater catchments located along a disturbance gradient in the Appalachian Mountains, USA. We found that disturbance was the dominant driver of streamflow changes; disturbed catchments were more sensitive to climate change than the undisturbed catchment; and disturbance was an important factor for a catchment's sensitivity to climate change, principally through changes in species composition and xylem anatomy. Streamflow sensitivity to climate change increased with increasing proportion of diffuse porous species, suggesting that not all disturbances are equal when it comes to streamflow sensitivity to climate change. Climate change effects were masked by disturbance in catchments with high magnitude/low frequency disturbances and amplified in a catchment with low magnitude/high frequency disturbance. Furthermore, critical assumptions of Budyko decomposition were assessed to evaluate the efficacy of applying decomposition to the headwater scale. Our study demonstrates the efficacy and usefulness of applying decomposition to scales potentially useful to resource managers and decision makers. Our study contributes to a more thorough understanding about the impacts of climate change on disturbed headwater catchments that will help managers to better prepare for and adapt to future changes.}, }
@article {pmid31755022, year = {2019}, author = {Nuttall, C and Yaqub, F}, title = {A call for action: understanding medicine's role in climate change.}, journal = {Perspectives on medical education}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {378}, pmid = {31755022}, issn = {2212-277X}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Curriculum ; *Medicine ; *Schools, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid31754472, year = {2019}, author = {Alexander, M and Alexander, J and Arora, M and Slocum, C and Middleton, J}, title = {A bellweather for climate change and disability: educational needs of rehabilitation professionals regarding disaster management and spinal cord injuries.}, journal = {Spinal cord series and cases}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {94}, pmid = {31754472}, issn = {2058-6124}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Climate Change ; Cohort Studies ; Disabled Persons/*rehabilitation ; Disaster Medicine/*education/trends ; *Disasters/prevention &amp; control ; Female ; Health Personnel/*education/trends ; Humans ; Internationality ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Pilot Projects ; Rehabilitation/education/trends ; Spinal Cord Injuries/epidemiology/*rehabilitation ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: Persons with disabilities are disproportionately impacted by extreme weather disasters and climate change. Individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) are especially at risk due to inability to control their body temperature and mobility concerns. We surveyed rehabilitation professionals in the field of SCI to determine their experiences, concerns and educational needs regarding natural disasters, climate change and sustainability and the effects on their clientele.<br><br>SETTING: Online survey available to an international cohort.<br><br>METHODS: The survey was developed by the authors and conducted in 2019. It was distributed amongst various international health care organizations whose members care for persons with SCI. Descriptive statistics and chi-square test for association were performed using Microsoft Excel 2016.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 125 respondents, 50% were from Europe, 18% from North America, and 18% from Asia; 74% were physicians and 13% physical therapists. In total 57.6% believed climate change had impacted their client's health and well-being. Respondents from North America were significantly less likely to report climate change had an impact on their patient's health than those from Asia or Europe (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.01). In total 82.5% of respondents thought professionals should be concerned with sustainability and 85.5% were interested in further education.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Most respondents acknowledged a need for more information related to the disasters, climate change, and disability. Results underscore the need for further research, professional, and consumer education.}, }
@article {pmid31753561, year = {2020}, author = {Townhill, BL and Hills, J and Murray, PA and Nichols, K and Pringle, P and Buckley, P}, title = {Communicating marine climate change impacts in the Caribbean and Pacific regions.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {150}, number = {}, pages = {110709}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.110709}, pmid = {31753561}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Caribbean Region ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; }, abstract = {The scientific literature on marine and coastal climate change has proliferated in recent decades. Translating and communicating this evidence in a timely, and accessible manner, is critical to support adaptation, but little is being done to summarise the latest science for decision makers. For Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which are highly vulnerable to marine and coastal climate change impacts, there is an urgent need to make the latest science readily available to inform national policy, leverage climate funding and highlight their vulnerability for international reports and climate negotiations. Climate change report cards are a proven successful way of presenting climate change information in an easily accessible and informative manner. Here we compare the development of marine climate change report cards for Caribbean and Pacific Commonwealth SIDS as a means of translating the latest science for decision makers. Regional engagement, priority issues and lessons learnt in these regions are compared, and future opportunities identified.}, }
@article {pmid31752102, year = {2019}, author = {Hoque, MZ and Cui, S and Xu, L and Islam, I and Tang, J and Ding, S}, title = {Assessing Agricultural Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change in Coastal Bangladesh.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {22}, pages = {}, pmid = {31752102}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; *Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {The adverse impacts of climate change exert mounting pressure on agriculture-dependent livelihoods of many developing and developed nations. However, integrated and spatially specific vulnerability assessments in less-developed countries like Bangladesh are rare, and insufficient to support the decision-making needed for climate-change resilience. Here, we develop an agricultural livelihood vulnerability index (ALVI) and an integrated approach, allowing for (i) mapping out the hot spots of vulnerability distribution; (ii) identifying key factors of spatially heterogeneous vulnerability; and (iii) supporting intervention planning for adaptation. This study conceptualized vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity by developing a composite index from a reliable dataset of 64 indicators comprising biophysical, agro-ecological, and socioeconomic variables. The empirical studies of coastal Bangladesh revealed that Bhola, Patuakhali, and Lakshmipur districts, around the mouth of the deltaic Meghna estuaries, are the hot spot of vulnerability distribution. Furthermore, the spatially heterogeneous vulnerability was triggered by spatial variation of erosion, cyclones, drought, rain-fed agriculture, land degradation, soil phosphorus, crop productivity, sanitation and housing condition, infant mortality, emergency shelters, adoption of agro-technology. The integrated approach could be useful for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation intervention by substituting various hypothetical scenarios into the ALVI framework for baseline comparison.}, }
@article {pmid31751558, year = {2020}, author = {Pozio, E}, title = {How globalization and climate change could affect foodborne parasites.}, journal = {Experimental parasitology}, volume = {208}, number = {}, pages = {107807}, doi = {10.1016/j.exppara.2019.107807}, pmid = {31751558}, issn = {1090-2449}, mesh = {Animals ; Apicomplexa/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Food Parasitology/*trends ; Helminths/*physiology ; Humans ; *Internationality ; Parasitic Diseases/*transmission ; }, abstract = {Foodborne parasites, most of which are zoonotic, represent an important human health hazard. These pathogens which include both protozoa (e.g., Cryptosporidium spp., Cyclospora cayetanensis, Toxoplasma gondii) and helminths (e.g., liver and intestinal flukes, Fasciola spp., Paragonimus spp., Echinococcus spp., Taenia spp., Angiostrongylus spp., Anisakis spp., Ascaris spp., Capillaria spp., Toxocara spp., Trichinella spp., Trichostrongylus spp.), have accompanied the human species since its origin and their spread has often increased due to their behavior. Since both domesticated and wild animals play an important role as reservoirs of these pathogens the increase/decrease of their biomasses, migration, and passive introduction by humans can change their epidemiological patterns. It follows that globalization and climate change will have a tremendous impact on these pathogens modifying their epidemiological patterns and ecosystems due to the changes of biotic and abiotic parameters. The consequences of these changes on foodborne parasites cannot be foreseen as a whole due to their complexity, but it is important that biologists, epidemiologists, physicians and veterinarians evaluate/address the problem within a one health approach. This opinion, based on the author's experience of over 40 years in the parasitology field, takes into consideration the direct and indirect effects on the transmission of foodborne parasites to humans.}, }
@article {pmid31750531, year = {2019}, author = {Gao, J}, title = {Dominant plant speciation types. A commentary on: 'Plant speciation in the age of climate change'.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {124}, number = {5}, pages = {iv-vi}, pmid = {31750531}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Genetic Speciation ; Phylogeny ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {This article comments on: Donald A. Levin. 2019. Plant speciation in the age of climate change. Annals of Botany 124(5): 769–775.}, }
@article {pmid31748948, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, Y and Ma, Q and Li, Y and Sun, T and Jin, H and Zhao, C and Milne, E and Easter, M and Paustian, K and Yong, HWA and McDonagh, J}, title = {Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions and Global Warming Potential of Wolfberry Production in Jingtai Oasis, Gansu Province, China.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {64}, number = {6}, pages = {772-782}, pmid = {31748948}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {31660232//Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon ; China ; Fertilizers ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Lycium ; Methane ; Nitrous Oxide ; }, abstract = {During the last decade, China's agro-food production has increased rapidly and been accompanied by the challenge of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental pollutants from fertilizers, pesticides, and intensive energy use. Understanding the energy use and environmental impacts of crop production will help identify environmentally damaging hotspots of agro-production, allowing environmental impacts to be assessed and crop management strategies optimized. Conventional farming has been widely employed in wolfberry (Lycium barbarum) cultivation in China, which is an important cash tree crop not only for the rural economy but also from an ecological standpoint. Energy use and global warming potential (GWP) were investigated in a wolfberry production system in the Yellow River irrigated Jingtai region of Gansu. In total, 52 household farms were randomly selected to conduct the investigation using questionnaires. Total energy input and output were 321,800.73 and 166,888.80 MJ ha[-1], respectively, in the production system. The highest share of energy inputs was found to be electricity consumption for lifting irrigation water, accounting for 68.52%, followed by chemical fertilizer application (11.37%). Energy use efficiency was 0.52 when considering both fruit and pruned wood. Nonrenewable energy use (88.52%) was far larger than the renewable energy input. The share of GWP of different inputs were 64.52% electricity, 27.72% nitrogen (N) fertilizer, 5.07% phosphate, 2.32% diesel, and 0.37% potassium, respectively. The highest share was related to electricity consumption for irrigation, followed by N fertilizer use. Total GWP in the wolfberry planting system was 26,018.64 kg CO2 eq ha[-1] and the share of CO2, N2O, and CH4 were 99.47%, 0.48%, and negligible respectively with CO2 being dominant. Pathways for reducing energy use and GHG emission mitigation include: conversion to low carbon farming to establish a sustainable and cleaner production system with options of raising water use efficiency by adopting a seasonal gradient water pricing system and advanced irrigation techniques; reducing synthetic fertilizer use; and policy support: smallholder farmland transfer (concentration) for scale production, credit (small- and low-interest credit) and tax breaks.}, }
@article {pmid31748793, year = {2019}, author = {Merganičová, K and Merganič, J and Lehtonen, A and Vacchiano, G and Sever, MZO and Augustynczik, ALD and Grote, R and Kyselová, I and Mäkelä, A and Yousefpour, R and Krejza, J and Collalti, A and Reyer, CPO}, title = {Forest carbon allocation modelling under climate change.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {39}, number = {12}, pages = {1937-1960}, pmid = {31748793}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; }, abstract = {Carbon allocation plays a key role in ecosystem dynamics and plant adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Hence, proper description of this process in vegetation models is crucial for the simulations of the impact of climate change on carbon cycling in forests. Here we review how carbon allocation modelling is currently implemented in 31 contrasting models to identify the main gaps compared with our theoretical and empirical understanding of carbon allocation. A hybrid approach based on combining several principles and/or types of carbon allocation modelling prevailed in the examined models, while physiologically more sophisticated approaches were used less often than empirical ones. The analysis revealed that, although the number of carbon allocation studies over the past 10 years has substantially increased, some background processes are still insufficiently understood and some issues in models are frequently poorly represented, oversimplified or even omitted. Hence, current challenges for carbon allocation modelling in forest ecosystems are (i) to overcome remaining limits in process understanding, particularly regarding the impact of disturbances on carbon allocation, accumulation and utilization of nonstructural carbohydrates, and carbon use by symbionts, and (ii) to implement existing knowledge of carbon allocation into defence, regeneration and improved resource uptake in order to better account for changing environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid31747628, year = {2020}, author = {Bai, X and Shen, W and Wu, X and Wang, P}, title = {Applicability of long-term satellite-based precipitation products for drought indices considering global warming.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {255}, number = {}, pages = {109846}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109846}, pmid = {31747628}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {China ; Climate ; *Droughts ; *Global Warming ; }, abstract = {This study evaluates the applicability of using long-term satellite rainfall estimate (SRE) precipitation products in drought monitoring over mainland China under global warming conditions. Two widely used drought indices, the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), were selected as study cases; both indices consider global warming but based on different mechanisms. Two popular long-term SREs were selected to calculate the indices: the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using the Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS). A ground-based gridded observation dataset known as the China monthly Precipitation Analysis Product (CPAP) was used as a reference for the evaluation. Research results showed that on a grid cell scale, the SPEI based on both SREs was consistent with observations in eastern China (correlation coefficient over 0.9), while the scPDSI was much less accurate (correlation coefficient of only 0.5) and its accuracy patterns were highly spatially heterogeneous. However, on a regional scale, after spatial errors were offset by spatial averaging, the performance of the SRE-based scPDSI improved, and it showed the same ability as the SPEI in temporally detecting the timing, intensity, and magnitude of drought. The self-calibrating procedure of the scPDSI was determined as the most probable cause of its poorer performance and high heterogeneity, which would increase instability and enlarge the uncertainty of the SREs. It is thus considered that the SPEI should be the first choice for use in monitoring global-warming related drought, primarily because of the high uncertainty and instability of the scPDSI.}, }
@article {pmid31745638, year = {2021}, author = {Fang, Y and Scott, D and Steiger, R}, title = {The impact of climate change on ski resorts in China.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {65}, number = {5}, pages = {677-689}, pmid = {31745638}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Industry ; Seasons ; *Snow ; }, abstract = {Although ski tourism in China is experiencing a boom, and the number of operating ski areas has significantly increased, the influence of climate change on the future development of China's ski industry has so far largely been overlooked. This paper addresses this important gap by applying the ski season simulation model SkiSim 2.0 at 116 ski areas. Four main indicators of climate change impact were examined: ski season length, operational ski days in economically important season segments, technically produced snow and snowmaking requirements. For all ski resorts in China and all climate change scenarios, average ski seasons are projected to shorten (- 4 to - 61% RCP 4.5; - 6 to - 79% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s) while snowmaking needs increase (27 to 51% RCP 4.5; 46 to 80% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s). The results indicate that high regional differences in climate change vulnerability exist. The implications for altered competitiveness and development potential of the ski industry in China are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid31745404, year = {2019}, author = {Muzerengi, T and Tirivangasi, HM}, title = {Small grain production as an adaptive strategy to climate change in Mangwe District, Matabeleland South in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {652}, pmid = {31745404}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This article assesses the feasibility of small grains as an adaptive strategy to climate change in the Mangwe District in Zimbabwe. The change in climate has drastically affected rainfall patterns across the globe and in Zimbabwe in particular. Continuous prevalence of droughts in Zimbabwe, coupled with other economic calamities facing the Southern African country, has contributed to a larger extent to the reduction in grain production among communal farmers, most of whom are in semi-arid areas. This has caused a sudden increase in food shortages, particularly in the Mangwe District, as a result of erratic rainfall, which has negatively affected subsistence farming. This article was deeply rooted in qualitative research methodologies. Purposive sampling was used to sample the population. The researchers used key informant interviews, focus group discussions and secondary data to collect data. Data were analysed using INVIVO software, a data analysis tool that brings out themes. The results of the study are presented in the form of themes. The study established that small grains contributed significantly to addressing food shortages in the Mangwe District. The study results revealed that small grains were a reliable adaptive strategy to climate change as they increased food availability, accessibility, utilisation and stability. Despite the significant contribution of small grains to addressing food shortages, there is a need for the government to come up with a vibrant small grains policy, and government support that is visible as well as market creation for small grains. The study further recommends that small grains in semi-arid areas can be a panacea to food insecurity in Zimbabwe.}, }
@article {pmid31745172, year = {2019}, author = {Gómez-Ruiz, EP and Lacher, TE}, title = {Author Correction: Climate change, range shifts, and the disruption of a pollinator-plant complex.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {17503}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-53670-9}, pmid = {31745172}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid31744695, year = {2020}, author = {Chen, Y and Liu, A and Cheng, X}, title = {Quantifying economic impacts of climate change under nine future emission scenarios within CMIP6.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {703}, number = {}, pages = {134950}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134950}, pmid = {31744695}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The concept of "environmental determinism" suggests that climate conditions played a substantial role in shaping modern society. To minimize the social costs of future climate change and to promote economic development through identification of cost-effective adaptation strategies and mitigation policies, quantitative assessments are needed for obtaining a better understanding of the causal impacts of climate change on human society. In this work, we estimate the economic impacts of climate change during the 21st century under nine CMIP6 scenarios, using the PAGE-ICE integrated assessment model driven by the latest anthropogenic emission and socio-economic projections. Our results show that the largest climate change damages occur under the SSP3-7.0 scenario (involving regional rivalry and high anthropogenic emissions), followed by the SSP3-LowNTCF scenario (which considers significantly reduced NTCF emissions), and that climate change damage costs are expected to grow much faster than global GDP (reaching ~47% of global GDP in 2100). Gaps in adaptation resulting from regional inequalities would lead to higher climate change damages in poorer and warmer regions such as Africa and the Middle East. The outcomes obtained under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios, in which the warming limit targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C set forth in the Paris Agreement are considered, respectively, reveal that aggressive mitigation strategies pass a cost-benefit analysis and could significantly reduce the economic impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31743431, year = {2020}, author = {Schumm, MP}, title = {Digest: Will invaders adapt to climate change?.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {74}, number = {1}, pages = {205-206}, doi = {10.1111/evo.13885}, pmid = {31743431}, issn = {1558-5646}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Coleoptera ; Insecta ; Introduced Species ; }, abstract = {One hypothesis for invasive species' success is that they show high potential to evolve in response to environmental change. Logan et al. evaluate this hypothesis in the invasive harlequin ladybeetle (Harmonia axyridis), using a breeding experiment to determine the genetic architecture of traits underlying thermal tolerance. Lack of heritable variation in some of these traits, and genetic correlations leading to trade-offs in others, suggest this species has limited potential to evolve in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31740774, year = {2019}, author = {Chang, L and Xu, J and Tie, X and Gao, W}, title = {The impact of Climate Change on the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the related ozone pollution in Shanghai, China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {16998}, pmid = {31740774}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Severe ozone (O3) episodes occur frequently in Shanghai during late-summers. We define geopotential height averaged over the key area region (122.5°E-135°E, 27.5°N -35°N) at 500 hPa as a WPSH_SHO3 index which has high positive correlation with surface O3 concentration in Shanghai. In addition, the index has a significant long-term increasing trend during the recent 60 years. Analysis shows the meteorological conditions under the strong WPSH_SHO3 climate background (compared to the weak background) have several important anomalies: (1) A strong WPSH center occurs over the key area region. (2) The cloud cover is less, resulting in high solar radiation and low humidity, enhancing the photochemical reactions of O3. (3) The near-surface southwesterly winds are more frequent, enhancing the transport of upwind pollutants and O3 precursors from polluted regions to Shanghai and producing higher O3 chemical productions. This study suggests that the global climate change could lead to a stronger WPSH in the key region, enhancing ozone pollution in Shanghai. A global chemical/transport model (MOZART-4) is applied to show that the O3 concentrations can be 30 ppbv higher under a strong WPSH_SHO3 condition than a weak condition, indicating the important effect of the global climate change on local air pollution in Shanghai.}, }
@article {pmid31739214, year = {2020}, author = {Salvador, C and Nieto, R and Linares, C and Díaz, J and Gimeno, L}, title = {Effects of droughts on health: Diagnosis, repercussion, and adaptation in vulnerable regions under climate change. Challenges for future research.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {703}, number = {}, pages = {134912}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134912}, pmid = {31739214}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Humans ; }, abstract = {There is little doubt about the effects of drought events on human health in the present climate. Projections of climate change indicate an increase in the occurrence and severity of droughts in the 21st century in a number of regions, thus it is likely that these types of hydrological extremes could have more of an impact if appropriate adaptation measures are not taken. The majority of studies on the effects of drought are focused on meteorological, agricultural, or hydrological contexts, but there are rather fewer assessments of the impacts of droughts on health. In particular, there have been hardly any attempts to compare different drought indices in order to identify and quantify the impacts of drought on health systems. In addition, rather better knowledge is needed on the mechanisms of vulnerability involved. In this paper, we attempt to describe the complexity of drought phenomena and the difficulty involved in quantifying the health risks linked to their occurrence. From an international perspective, we provide a brief review of the harmful effects of droughts on health in the context of climate change, as well as the vulnerability factors related to droughts. We make an assessment of aspects that have not yet been investigated, or which require further attention to be devoted to this topic. The principal aim of this paper is therefore to draw attention to the need to consider closely the relationship between drought indices and human health, in order to achieve a more fundamental understanding, and to propose specific courses or lines of action for future years, which could eventually be of use to healthcare providers and services.}, }
@article {pmid31736442, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, X and Stanisavljevic, N}, title = {Can waste management be hailed as a climate change mitigation leader?.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {37}, number = {12}, pages = {1181-1182}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X19888349}, pmid = {31736442}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Refuse Disposal ; *Waste Management ; }, }
@article {pmid31736235, year = {2020}, author = {Guerrero, APS and Fung, D and Suaalii-Sauni, T and Wiguna, T}, title = {An update to "Care for the seafarers: A review of mental health in Austronesia," with specific recommendation to address climate change.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific psychiatry : official journal of the Pacific Rim College of Psychiatrists}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {e12375}, doi = {10.1111/appy.12375}, pmid = {31736235}, issn = {1758-5872}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Stress, Psychological ; }, }
@article {pmid31734504, year = {2020}, author = {Hassani, A and Azapagic, A and D'Odorico, P and Keshmiri, A and Shokri, N}, title = {Desiccation crisis of saline lakes: A new decision-support framework for building resilience to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {703}, number = {}, pages = {134718}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134718}, pmid = {31734504}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {River flow reductions as a result of agricultural withdrawals and climate change are rapidly desiccating endorheic lakes, increasing their salinity and affecting the bio-diversity and human wellbeing in the surrounding areas. Here we present a new framework to guide eco-hydrological restoration of saline lakes and build their resilience to climate change by optimizing agricultural land use and related water withdrawals. The framework involves four steps: 1. selection of global circulation models for the basin under study; 2. establishment of a hydrological balance over the lake's area to estimate the amount of water required for its restoration; 3. water allocation modeling to determine the water available for restoration and allocation of the remaining water across different users in the lake's basin; and 4. basin-scale optimization of land use and cropping patterns subject to water availability. We illustrated the general applicability of the framework through the case of the second largest (by volume) hyper-saline lake globally, Lake Urmia, which lost 96% of its volume in only 20 years, primarily as a result of upstream water withdrawals. Through the application of the framework, we estimated the amount of water needed to restore the lake, either fully or partially, and proposed a sustainable land-use strategy, while protect farmers' income in the basin. Considering future climate change projections under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, we found that an average annual surface inflow of 3,648 Mm[3] (∼70% increase in RCP 4.5) and 3,692 Mm[3] (∼73% increase in RCP 8.5) would be required to restore the lake by 2050, respectively. This would require the respective conversion of 95,600 ha and 133,687 ha of irrigated land to rain-fed cropland or grassland across the basin by 2050. The proposed framework can be used for building resilience to climate change and mitigating human-induced threats to other declining saline lakes.}, }
@article {pmid31734486, year = {2020}, author = {Ouyang, W and Wan, X and Xu, Y and Wang, X and Lin, C}, title = {Vertical difference of climate change impacts on vegetation at temporal-spatial scales in the upper stream of the Mekong River Basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {701}, number = {}, pages = {134782}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134782}, pmid = {31734486}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; *Plants ; Rivers ; Satellite Imagery ; }, abstract = {As the upper section of the Mekong River Basin, the vegetation quality of the Lancang River Basin (LRB) and the related ecological functions are critical for the whole basin. With time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images from 2000 to 2015 and local daily climatic data since 1976, their vertical interaction differences were identified. The results showed that the spatial variation in Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of grassland and forest were sensitive to elevation. The NDVI value in the southern area at elevations less than 3000 m was more than 0.80 and decreased to 0.30-0.60 with elevations higher than 4500 m. The general vegetation quality showed a positive trend under climate change over 16 years. The M-K test of daily precipitation and temperature from 12 local weather stations showed that the basin temperature varied more significantly than precipitation. The temporal correlation between NDVI with precipitation as well as temperature at each pixel indicated that temperature was the dominant factor affecting grassland and forest dynamics in the LRB. The interaction between vegetation and climate was more sensitive at elevations lower than 3000 m. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario, the future temperature distribution was predicted, and its impact on NDVI was simulated at the pixel scale. Under future drier and warmer climate conditions, the responded NDVI in the upper stream with higher elevation may increase soil erosion and decrease streamflow. The NDVI in the downstream area will be improved and be able to adapt to the related climate impacts. Because of the large amount of water and biomass in this basin, higher temperatures will accelerate the decomposition of forest foliar litter. Thus, more organic carbon and forest diffuse pollution will be discharged into the water, potentially affecting the water quality of the whole basin.}, }
@article {pmid31733928, year = {2019}, author = {Watts, N and Amann, M and Arnell, N and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Belesova, K and Boykoff, M and Byass, P and Cai, W and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Capstick, S and Chambers, J and Dalin, C and Daly, M and Dasandi, N and Davies, M and Drummond, P and Dubrow, R and Ebi, KL and Eckelman, M and Ekins, P and Escobar, LE and Fernandez Montoya, L and Georgeson, L and Graham, H and Haggar, P and Hamilton, I and Hartinger, S and Hess, J and Kelman, I and Kiesewetter, G and Kjellstrom, T and Kniveton, D and Lemke, B and Liu, Y and Lott, M and Lowe, R and Sewe, MO and Martinez-Urtaza, J and Maslin, M and McAllister, L and McGushin, A and Jankin Mikhaylov, S and Milner, J and Moradi-Lakeh, M and Morrissey, K and Murray, K and Munzert, S and Nilsson, M and Neville, T and Oreszczyn, T and Owfi, F and Pearman, O and Pencheon, D and Phung, D and Pye, S and Quinn, R and Rabbaniha, M and Robinson, E and Rocklöv, J and Semenza, JC and Sherman, J and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Tabatabaei, M and Taylor, J and Trinanes, J and Wilkinson, P and Costello, A and Gong, P and Montgomery, H}, title = {The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {394}, number = {10211}, pages = {1836-1878}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6}, pmid = {31733928}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; MR/R015600/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Delivery of Health Care/methods ; Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Food Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Global Health ; Health Policy ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Malnutrition/epidemiology ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid31733927, year = {2019}, author = {The Lancet, }, title = {Health and climate change: making the link matter.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {394}, number = {10211}, pages = {1780}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32756-4}, pmid = {31733927}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; *Parturition ; Pregnancy ; }, }
@article {pmid31733555, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, H and Meng, C and Wang, Y and Wang, Y and Li, M}, title = {Comprehensive evaluation of the effects of climate change and land use and land cover change variables on runoff and sediment discharge.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {702}, number = {}, pages = {134401}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134401}, pmid = {31733555}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and various human activities have resulted in noticeable changes in watershed hydrological and soil erosion regimes. In this study, a comprehensive investigation was conducted to distinguish between the effects of climate variables and those of land use and land cover change (LUCC) variables on runoff and sediment discharge in the Zhenjiangguan watershed, which is located at the headstream basin of the Minjiang River in southwest China. Statistical analysis results revealed significant and slight decreasing trends in runoff and sediment discharge, respectively. Abrupt changes occurred in 1974 and 1995, which divided the entire time series into a decrease-increase-decrease tendency pattern; this pattern was the response to climate changes and the Reforestation and Returning Farmland to Forest project in China. In addition, redundancy analysis was used for partition statistical analyses, and the contributions of climate change and LUCC to runoff and sediment discharge were at the ratio of 4:1. Since 1990, the effect of LUCC has increased notably and its relationship with hydrological variables changed from positive to negative in approximately 1995. Finally, simulations performed using the distributed Basic Pollution Calculation Center (BPCC) model confirmed that climate and LUCC variables reduced the runoff depth and sediment load between 1980 and 2003. The contributions of climate fluctuation and LUCC to runoff depth were at the ratio of 5:1, and those to sediment load were at the ratio of 3:1, which exhibited the dominant role of climate change and the high sensitivity of sediment load to human interference. Overall, the results of distributed hydrological modeling were consistent with those of statistical analyses. The results provided detailed information and explained the mechanics underlying hydrological processes and soil erosion.}, }
@article {pmid31733005, year = {2020}, author = {Denney, DA and Anderson, JT}, title = {Natural history collections document biological responses to climate change: A commentary on DeLeo et al. (2019), Effects of two centuries of global environmental variation on phenology and physiology of Arabidopsis thaliana.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {340-342}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14922}, pmid = {31733005}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DEB-1553408//National Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {*Arabidopsis ; *Brassicaceae ; Climate Change ; Museums ; }, abstract = {Natural history collections can complement and enhance our research programs in a variety of ways. DeLeo et al. (2019) used herbarium records to study the changes in physiology and phenology in Arabidopsis thaliana (Brassicaceae) due to contemporary climate change. Here, we discuss their approach and results as well as highlight other ways in which herbarium and natural history museum records can be leveraged for future studies.The copyright holder of the image (the herbarium sheet of Arabidopsis thaliana) is the first author, Derek Denney. This article is a commentary on DeLeo et al, 26, 523-538.}, }
@article {pmid31733002, year = {2020}, author = {Kavousi, J}, title = {There is an inverse relationship between the capacity of climate change refugia and species adaptation potential.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {1937-1939}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14924}, pmid = {31733002}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {ANR-17-EURE-0015//ISblue/ ; //French government/ ; }, abstract = {There is an inverse relationship between species adaptation potential (green/curved line) and refugial capacity (blue/light triangle). The ability of refugia species to adapt/acclimatize to future stressors (red/dark triangle), assuming this is within their physiological capabilities, depends on the refugial capacity of the refugia in which they live. The more effective a refugium, the lower the chance of its species adapting/acclimatizing. This article is a commentary on Kapsensberg &amp; Cyronak, 25, 3201-3214.}, }
@article {pmid31732799, year = {2019}, author = {Jahandideh-Tehrani, M and Zhang, H and Helfer, F and Yu, Y}, title = {Review of climate change impacts on predicted river streamflow in tropical rivers.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {12}, pages = {752}, pmid = {31732799}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Droughts ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Extreme Heat ; Floods ; *Hydrology ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Tropical regions are characterized by hydrological extreme events, which are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Therefore, quantifying the extent to which climate change may damage a hydrological system becomes crucial. This paper aims to evaluate the findings from previous research on projected impacts of climate change on hydrological systems located in regions bounded by the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. It intends to provide an in-depth understanding of the climatic conditions, applied approaches, climate change impacts on future streamflow, and measures to reduce prediction uncertainty in the tropics. The review revealed that there is a significant variation in the magnitude of climate change impacts on streamflow in the tropics. The reason for the inconsistent trend prediction is that projections are heavily dependent on the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, climate model structural differences, and uncertainty of downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, to minimize the uncertainty and maximize confidence in streamflow projections, it is essential to apply multi-member model ensembles and to clarify the adaptation strategy (coping, adjusting, or transforming).}, }
@article {pmid31732333, year = {2020}, author = {Silva, LCM and Daam, MA and Gusmao, F}, title = {Acclimation alters glyphosate temperature-dependent toxicity: Implications for risk assessment under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {385}, number = {}, pages = {121512}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2019.121512}, pmid = {31732333}, issn = {1873-3336}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Cladocera/drug effects/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Glycine/*analogs &amp; derivatives/toxicity ; Herbicides/*toxicity ; Risk Assessment ; Temperature ; Glyphosate ; }, abstract = {The evaluation of temperature-dependent chemical toxicity (TDCT) is imperative for future risk assessments of pesticides under global climate change scenarios. Few TDCT studies have so far considered the ability of organisms to acclimate to altered temperatures prior to pesticide exposure, although this may change their thermal tolerance range and hence their susceptibility to pesticide stress. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of temperature acclimation on the sensitivity of the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia silvestrii to Glyphosate. We used the shift in sensitivity of the organisms to Glyphosate when exposed to short term temperature changes as a proxy for the effect of the developmental acclimation on sensitivity. We observed that acclimation to higher temperatures reduces the sensitivity to Glyphosate when organisms are exposed to this pesticide in lower temperatures. Therefore, acclimation to high temperatures offers some protective effect against Glyphosate toxicity. We argue that pesticide risk assessments based on tests conducted at one standard temperature should be considered with care. Realistic risk assessments considering climate change scenarios should assess the mode of which organisms are exposed to temperature, therefore taking into consideration the potential effect of temperature acclimation on the sensitivity of a species to a toxicant.}, }
@article {pmid31731314, year = {2020}, author = {Applequist, WL and Brinckmann, JA and Cunningham, AB and Hart, RE and Heinrich, M and Katerere, DR and van Andel, T}, title = {Scientists' Warning on Climate Change and Medicinal Plants.}, journal = {Planta medica}, volume = {86}, number = {1}, pages = {10-18}, doi = {10.1055/a-1041-3406}, pmid = {31731314}, issn = {1439-0221}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Extinction, Biological ; *Plants, Medicinal ; }, abstract = {The recent publication of a World Scientists' Warning to Humanity highlighted the fact that climate change, absent strenuous mitigation or adaptation efforts, will have profound negative effects for humanity and other species, affecting numerous aspects of life. In this paper, we call attention to one of these aspects, the effects of climate change on medicinal plants. These plants provide many benefits for human health, particularly in communities where Western medicine is unavailable. As for other species, their populations may be threatened by changing temperature and precipitation regimes, disruption of commensal relationships, and increases in pests and pathogens, combined with anthropogenic habitat fragmentation that impedes migration. Additionally, medicinal species are often harvested unsustainably, and this combination of pressures may push many populations to extinction. A second issue is that some species may respond to increased environmental stresses not only with declines in biomass production but with changes in chemical content, potentially affecting quality or even safety of medicinal products. We therefore recommend actions including conservation and local cultivation of valued plants, sustainability training for harvesters and certification of commercial material, preservation of traditional knowledge, and programs to monitor raw material quality in addition to, of course, efforts to mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31730310, year = {2019}, author = {Wellbery, CE}, title = {Climate Change Health Impacts: A Role for the Family Physician.}, journal = {American family physician}, volume = {100}, number = {10}, pages = {602-603}, pmid = {31730310}, issn = {1532-0650}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Health Impact Assessment/*methods ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; *Physicians, Family ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid31730309, year = {2019}, author = {Lum, L}, title = {Climate Change: What the Science Tells Us.}, journal = {American family physician}, volume = {100}, number = {10}, pages = {Online}, pmid = {31730309}, issn = {1532-0650}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Attitude to Health ; *Biomedical Research ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; Science/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid31729141, year = {2020}, author = {Anderson, JT and Wadgymar, SM}, title = {Climate change disrupts local adaptation and favours upslope migration.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {181-192}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13427}, pmid = {31729141}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {DEB-1553408//National Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; *Brassicaceae ; *Climate Change ; Snow ; }, abstract = {Contemporary climate change is proceeding at an unprecedented rate. The question remains whether populations adapted to historical conditions can persist under rapid environmental change. We tested whether climate change will disrupt local adaptation and reduce population growth rates using the perennial plant Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae). In a large-scale field experiment conducted over five years, we exposed > 106 000 transplants to historical, current, or future climates and quantified fitness components. Low-elevation populations outperformed local populations under simulated climate change (snow removal) across all five experimental gardens. Local maladaptation also emerged in control treatments, but it was less pronounced than under snow removal. We recovered local adaptation under snow addition treatments, which reflect historical conditions. Our results revealed that low elevation populations risk rapid decline, whereas upslope migration could enable population persistence and expansion at higher elevation locales. Local adaptation to historical conditions could increase vulnerability to climate change, even for geographically widespread species.}, }
@article {pmid31727990, year = {2019}, author = {Zhu, Z and Liu, Y and Kuang, H and Benton, MJ and Newell, AJ and Xu, H and An, W and Ji, S and Xu, S and Peng, N and Zhai, Q}, title = {Altered fluvial patterns in North China indicate rapid climate change linked to the Permian-Triassic mass extinction.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {16818}, pmid = {31727990}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The causes of the severest crisis in the history of life around the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) remain controversial. Here we report that the latest Permian alluvial plains in Shanxi, North China, went through a rapid transition from meandering rivers to braided rivers and aeolian systems. Soil carbonate carbon isotope (δ[13]C), oxygen isotope (δ[18]O), and geochemical signatures of weathering intensity reveal a consistent pattern of deteriorating environments (cool, arid, and anoxic conditions) and climate fluctuations across the PTB. The synchronous ecological collapse is confirmed by a dramatic reduction or disappearance of dominant plants, tetrapods and invertebrates and a bloom of microbially-induced sedimentary structures. A similar rapid switch in fluvial style is seen worldwide (e.g. Karoo Basin, Russia, Australia) in terrestrial boundary sequences, all of which may be considered against a background of global marine regression. The synchronous global expansion of alluvial fans and high-energy braided streams is a response to abrupt climate change associated with aridity, hypoxia, acid rain, and mass wasting. Where neighbouring uplands were not uplifting or basins subsiding, alluvial fans are absent, but in these areas the climate change is evidenced by the disruption of pedogenesis.}, }
@article {pmid31726577, year = {2019}, author = {Mi, H and Fagherazzi, S and Qiao, G and Hong, Y and Fichot, CG}, title = {Climate change leads to a doubling of turbidity in a rapidly expanding Tibetan lake.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {688}, number = {}, pages = {952-959}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.339}, pmid = {31726577}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Recent climate change is causing most lakes on the Tibetan Plateau to grow at an unprecedented rate. Changes in the physical properties and water storage of the lakes are now relatively well documented. Yet the impacts on their water quality remain poorly understood. Turbidity is a well-established optical water-quality indicator related to suspended particulate matter concentration which can affect vertical light attenuation and ecosystem functioning. Here, we use remotely sensed data to assess the seasonal and long-term variations in turbidity in Siling Lake, one of the fastest growing lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, and to identify potential driving mechanisms of this change. The lake experiences two distinct peaks of turbidity during the year: one in August (warm season) caused by the seasonal influx of sediments from the Zagya Zangbo River, and one in December (cold season) caused by the wind-driven resuspension of sediments along the lakes' shorelines. The analysis further revealed a persistent increasing trend that doubled the average lake turbidity between 2000 and 2017. Evidence suggests this rise in turbidity results from a climate-driven increase in sediment supply from the Zagya Zangbo River, and from sediment resuspension associated with the erosion of shorelines recently submerged during the rapid expansion of the lake (paleoshorelines). Our results highlight the vulnerability of the Tibetan Lakes' water quality to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31726560, year = {2019}, author = {Yue, Y and Zhang, P and Shang, Y}, title = {The potential global distribution and dynamics of wheat under multiple climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {688}, number = {}, pages = {1308-1318}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.153}, pmid = {31726560}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Temperature ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Accurately predicting changes in the potential distribution of crops resulting from climate change has great significance for adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change and ensuring food security. Based on very large datasets of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) occurrence points and the main environmental factors that affect wheat growth, we used the Maxent model to predict the future global potential distribution and land suitability for wheat cultivation under multiple global climate change scenarios. Our results indicated that the suitability for wheat cultivation is primarily influenced by climatic factors and that the ≥0 °C accumulated temperature is especially important. The RCP4.5 scenario is more favourable for wheat cultivation, whereas the RCP8.5 scenario is the least favourable. Moreover, land suitability for wheat cultivation increased in Europe, Russia, the United States, Canada, China, and Pakistan, whereas a decreasing trend in suitability was found in Central and Eastern Africa, Australia, and South India. Overall, climate change is predicted to increase land suitability for wheat cultivation in middle- and high-latitude areas, and to decrease suitability in low latitude areas. Although the global distribution of wheat will not significantly alter with climate change, the risks to wheat cultivation may be significantly higher in the future because of high temperatures, heat waves, and droughts caused by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31725095, year = {2020}, author = {}, title = {Climate Change and Health: A Call to Action.}, journal = {Holistic nursing practice}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1097/HNP.0000000000000364}, pmid = {31725095}, issn = {1550-5138}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid31724833, year = {2019}, author = {Usher, K and Durkin, J and Bhullar, N}, title = {Eco-anxiety: How thinking about climate change-related environmental decline is affecting our mental health.}, journal = {International journal of mental health nursing}, volume = {28}, number = {6}, pages = {1233-1234}, doi = {10.1111/inm.12673}, pmid = {31724833}, issn = {1447-0349}, mesh = {Anxiety/*etiology ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid31724310, year = {2020}, author = {Wei, J and Peng, L and He, Z and Lu, Y and Wang, F}, title = {Potential distribution of two invasive pineapple pests under climate change.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {76}, number = {5}, pages = {1652-1663}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5684}, pmid = {31724310}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {31802001//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2015YJ03//Shanxi Agricultural University of Science and Technology Innovation fund projects/ ; }, mesh = {*Ananas ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The number of global invasive species has significantly increased during the past two centuries due to globalization. The understanding of species invasion under climate change is crucial for sustainable biodiversity conservation, community dynamics, ecosystem function, and resource distribution. Two invasive species, Dysmicoccus brevipes (Cockerell) and D. neobrevipes (Beardsley) have greatly expanded their ranges during recent years. These insects are now considered as extremely serious pests for various plants, especially pineapple. In addition, they are the primary vectors for pineapple wilt associated virus. However, the potential distribution range and management strategies for these pests are unclear.<br><br>RESULTS: In this study, potential risk maps were developed for these pests with MaxEnt (maximum entropy) based on occurrence data under different environmental variables. The potential distributions of these pests were projected for 2050s and 2070s under three climate change scenarios as described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results showed that both pests have similar potential distributions, with high environmental suitability in South America, Africa and South Asia. In addition, potential range expansions or reductions were predicted under different climate change scenarios. The annual mean temperature was the most important factor, accounting for 43.4% of D. brevipes distribution. The minimum temperature of coldest month and mean temperature of coldest quarter was found to be responsible for 90.3% of D. neobrevipes distribution.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This research provided a theoretical reference framework to develop policies in the management and control of these invasive pests. &#xa9; 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid31723432, year = {2019}, author = {Domenici, P and Allan, BJM and Lefrançois, C and McCormick, MI}, title = {The effect of climate change on the escape kinematics and performance of fishes: implications for future predator-prey interactions.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coz078}, pmid = {31723432}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Climate change can have a pronounced impact on the physiology and behaviour of fishes. Notably, many climate change stressors, such as global warming, hypoxia and ocean acidification (OA), have been shown to alter the kinematics of predator-prey interactions in fishes, with potential effects at ecological levels. Here, we review the main effects of each of these stressors on fish escape responses using an integrative approach that encompasses behavioural and kinematic variables. Elevated temperature was shown to affect many components of the escape response, including escape latencies, kinematics and maximum swimming performance, while the main effect of hypoxia was on escape responsiveness and directionality. OA had a negative effect on the escape response of juvenile fish by decreasing their directionality, responsiveness and locomotor performance, although some studies show no effect of acidification. The few studies that have explored the effects of multiple stressors show that temperature tends to have a stronger effect on escape performance than OA. Overall, the effects of climate change on escape responses may occur through decreased muscle performance and/or an interference with brain and sensory functions. In all of these cases, since the escape response is a behaviour directly related to survival, these effects are likely to be fundamental drivers of changes in marine communities. The overall future impact of these stressors is discussed by including their potential effects on predator attack behaviour, thereby allowing the development of potential future scenarios for predator-prey interactions.}, }
@article {pmid31723150, year = {2019}, author = {Meyer-Jacob, C and Michelutti, N and Paterson, AM and Cumming, BF and Keller, WB and Smol, JP}, title = {The browning and re-browning of lakes: Divergent lake-water organic carbon trends linked to acid deposition and climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {16676}, pmid = {31723150}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and water colour are increasing in many inland waters across northern Europe and northeastern North America. This inland-water "browning" has profound physical, chemical and biological repercussions for aquatic ecosystems affecting water quality, biological community structures and aquatic productivity. Potential drivers of this "browning" trend are complex and include reductions in atmospheric acid deposition, changes in land use/cover, increased nitrogen deposition and climate change. However, because of the overlapping impacts of these stressors, their relative contributions to DOC dynamics remain unclear, and without appropriate long-term monitoring data, it has not been possible to determine whether the ongoing "browning" is unprecedented or simply a "re-browning" to pre-industrial DOC levels. Here, we demonstrate the long-term impacts of acid deposition and climate change on lake-water DOC concentrations in low and high acid-deposition areas using infrared spectroscopic techniques on ~200-year-long lake-sediment records from central Canada. We show that acid deposition suppressed naturally higher DOC concentrations during the 20th century, but that a "re-browning" of lakes is now occurring with emissions reductions in formerly high deposition areas. In contrast, in low deposition areas, climate change is forcing lakes towards new ecological states, as lake-water DOC concentrations now often exceed pre-industrial levels.}, }
@article {pmid31722896, year = {2019}, author = {Ladouceur, R}, title = {Our fight against climate change.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {65}, number = {11}, pages = {766}, pmid = {31722896}, issn = {1715-5258}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Physician's Role ; Physicians, Family/*psychology ; }, }
@article {pmid31722443, year = {2019}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Zhang, Y and Bambrick, H and Berry, HL and Linnenluecke, MK and Trueck, S and Bi, P and Boylan, SM and Green, D and Guo, Y and Hanigan, IC and Johnston, FH and Madden, DL and Malik, A and Morgan, GG and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S and Rychetnik, L and Stevenson, M and Watts, N and Capon, AG}, title = {The 2019 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: a turbulent year with mixed progress.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {211}, number = {11}, pages = {490-491.e21}, doi = {10.5694/mja2.50405}, pmid = {31722443}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Economics ; Environmental Exposure ; *Environmental Policy ; Extreme Heat ; Federal Government ; *Health ; *Health Planning ; *Health Policy ; Healthcare Financing ; Humans ; Local Government ; Mosquito Vectors ; Politics ; Renewable Energy ; State Government ; Vector Borne Diseases ; Wildfires ; }, abstract = {The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change was established in 2017 and produced its first Australian national assessment in 2018. It examined 41 indicators across five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. It found that, overall, Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In this report we present the 2019 update. We track progress on health and climate change in Australia across the same five broad domains and many of the same indicators as in 2018. A number of new indicators are introduced this year, including one focused on wildfire exposure, and another on engagement in health and climate change in the corporate sector. Several of the previously reported indicators are not included this year, either due to their discontinuation by the parent project, the Lancet Countdown, or because insufficient new data were available for us to meaningfully provide an update to the indicator. In a year marked by an Australian federal election in which climate change featured prominently, we find mixed progress on health and climate change in this country. There has been progress in renewable energy generation, including substantial employment increases in this sector. There has also been some progress at state and local government level. However, there continues to be no engagement on health and climate change in the Australian federal Parliament, and Australia performs poorly across many of the indicators in comparison to other developed countries; for example, it is one of the world's largest net exporters of coal and its electricity generation from low carbon sources is low. We also find significantly increasing exposure of Australians to heatwaves and, in most states and territories, continuing elevated suicide rates at higher temperatures. We conclude that Australia remains at significant risk of declines in health due to climate change, and that substantial and sustained national action is urgently required in order to prevent this.}, }
@article {pmid31721066, year = {2020}, author = {Callaghan, TV and Kulikova, O and Rakhmanova, L and Topp-Jørgensen, E and Labba, N and Kuhmanen, LA and Kirpotin, S and Shaduyko, O and Burgess, H and Rautio, A and Hindshaw, RS and Golubyatnikov, LL and Marshall, GJ and Lobanov, A and Soromotin, A and Sokolov, A and Sokolova, N and Filant, P and Johansson, M}, title = {Improving dialogue among researchers, local and indigenous peoples and decision-makers to address issues of climate change in the North.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {49}, number = {6}, pages = {1161-1178}, pmid = {31721066}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; *Indigenous Peoples ; Population Groups ; }, abstract = {The Circumpolar North has been changing rapidly within the last decades, and the socioeconomic systems of the Eurasian Arctic and Siberia in particular have displayed the most dramatic changes. Here, anthropogenic drivers of environmental change such as migration and industrialization are added to climate-induced changes in the natural environment such as permafrost thawing and increased frequency of extreme events. Understanding and adapting to both types of changes are important to local and indigenous peoples in the Arctic and for the wider global community due to transboundary connectivity. As local and indigenous peoples, decision-makers and scientists perceive changes and impacts differently and often fail to communicate efficiently to respond to changes adequately, we convened a meeting of the three groups in Salekhard in 2017. The outcomes of the meeting include perceptions of how the three groups each perceive the main issues affecting health and well-being and recommendations for working together better.}, }
@article {pmid31719536, year = {2019}, author = {Smith, TP and Thomas, TJH and García-Carreras, B and Sal, S and Yvon-Durocher, G and Bell, T and Pawar, S}, title = {Community-level respiration of prokaryotic microbes may rise with global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {5124}, pmid = {31719536}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {BB/J014575/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Aerobiosis ; Bacteria/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Carbon/metabolism ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Prokaryotic Cells/*metabolism ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding how the metabolic rates of prokaryotes respond to temperature is fundamental to our understanding of how ecosystem functioning will be altered by climate change, as these micro-organisms are major contributors to global carbon efflux. Ecological metabolic theory suggests that species living at higher temperatures evolve higher growth rates than those in cooler niches due to thermodynamic constraints. Here, using a global prokaryotic dataset, we find that maximal growth rate at thermal optimum increases with temperature for mesophiles (temperature optima [Formula: see text]C), but not thermophiles ([Formula: see text]C). Furthermore, short-term (within-day) thermal responses of prokaryotic metabolic rates are typically more sensitive to warming than those of eukaryotes. Because climatic warming will mostly impact ecosystems in the mesophilic temperature range, we conclude that as microbial communities adapt to higher temperatures, their metabolic rates and therefore, biomass-specific CO[Formula: see text] production, will inevitably rise. Using a mathematical model, we illustrate the potential global impacts of these findings.}, }
@article {pmid31716334, year = {2019}, author = {Khruleva, OA and Stekolshchikov, AV}, title = {Additions to the aphid fauna of Wrangel Island due to climate change withbr /&gt;redescription of the oviparous female of Pterocomma groenlandicum Hille Ris Lambers, 1952 (Hemiptera, Aphidoidea).}, journal = {Zootaxa}, volume = {4615}, number = {3}, pages = {zootaxa.4615.3.6}, doi = {10.11646/zootaxa.4615.3.6}, pmid = {31716334}, issn = {1175-5334}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aphids ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Female ; Islands ; Oviparity ; Russia ; }, abstract = {The article contains new data on the Aphidoidea of Wrangel Island collected in 2015. Previously, at least four species were known. Two of them, Aphis polaris Stekolshchikov et Khruleva, 2014 and Metopolophium sabihae Prior, 1976, were regularly observed on the island in the 1980s and 1990s. Pterocomma groenlandicum Hille Ris Lambers, 1952 and Myzus (Nectarosiphon) polaris Hille Ris Lambers, 1952, were first collected in 2006. In 2015 three more species were found: Brachycaudus (Mordvilkomemor) rumexicolens (Patch, 1917), Cavariella aegopodii (Scopoli, 1763), and Pemphigus saliciradicis (Börner, 1950). This last species represents a first record for the territory of Russia whereas C. aegopodii had not previously been collected in tundra landscapes. In 2015, a total of seven aphid species were collected. For one of the four previously noted species, M. sabihae, a sharp increase in its abundance is recorded. We propose that the increase in aphid species diversity is due to climate warming in the Russian High Arctic. A detailed redescription of the oviparous female of P. groenlandicum is also provided.}, }
@article {pmid31712356, year = {2019}, author = {Patrick, K}, title = {Climate change, taxes and health: getting government back to work on its most urgent business.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {45}, pages = {E1233-E1234}, pmid = {31712356}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Federal Government ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Taxes ; }, }
@article {pmid31710648, year = {2019}, author = {McLeay, LJ and Doubell, MJ and Linnane, AJ}, title = {Spatial and temporal variations in female size at maturity of a Southern Rock Lobster (Jasus edwardsii) population: A likely response to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {e0225144}, pmid = {31710648}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; Climate Change ; Female ; Fisheries ; Palinuridae/*anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Sexual Maturation ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {The size at which sexual maturity is reached is a key population parameter used to guide the setting of minimum legal size limits in fisheries. Understanding spatial and temporal variations in size at maturity is fundamental to management because the relationship between size at maturity and minimum legal size limits affects the fraction of the mature population biomass that is harvested, and resulting egg production, larval settlement and recruitment. This study measured the size at maturity of female Southern Rock Lobster (Jasus edwardsii) across South Australia between 1991 and 2015 in relation to known oceanographic characteristics, surface and subsurface temperature data, and relative changes in lobster abundance. There was pronounced north to south spatial variation in estimates of size at maturity. Larger average size at maturity was recorded in warmer north-western areas of the fishery relative to the cooler waters of the south-east. Estimates of size at maturity also differed over 25 years across the fishery. However, the nature of temporal responses varied spatially, and were more consistent with variations in surface and subsurface water temperature at local-scales than changes in lobster density. In the well-mixed waters of the north-western, western and south-eastern parts of the fishery, relatively high rates of increase in sea-surface temperature and size at maturity were recorded since 1991, indicating that size at maturity may be responding to ocean warming associated with global climate change. In more central parts of the fishery, contrasting temporal signals in sea-surface temperature (positive) and bottom temperature (negative) indicated increases in upwelling strength over the study period, and formation of a bottom cold pool below a warm surface layer, with corresponding decreases in size at maturity recorded. The spatio-temporal changes in size at maturity measured in this study highlight the need for oceanographic information to be integrated into future stock assessment models to enhance harvest strategy development, allow timely adaptive management decisions and increase the resilience of fisheries to the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31709915, year = {2019}, author = {Cowell, JM}, title = {Climate Change, School Health and School Nursing: A Call to Action.}, journal = {The Journal of school nursing : the official publication of the National Association of School Nurses}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {394}, doi = {10.1177/1059840519883469}, pmid = {31709915}, issn = {1546-8364}, mesh = {Adult ; *Attitude to Health ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Nursing Staff/*psychology ; *Organizational Objectives ; School Nursing/*organization &amp; administration ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid31709905, year = {2020}, author = {Wonneberger, A and Meijers, MHC and Schuck, ART}, title = {Shifting public engagement: How media coverage of climate change conferences affects climate change audience segments.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {176-193}, pmid = {31709905}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {While it is often assumed that media attention for events, such as international climate change conferences, can influence public opinion, research studying changes in public opinion concerning climate change is scarce. Research on climate change audience segments and the theory of motivated reasoning suggest that media effects depend on the level of audience engagement with climate change. We analyze how exposure to media coverage of the COP21 affected public opinion in the Netherlands. Based on a two-wave online panel survey (N = 876), we identified five audience segments that varied in their degree of climate change beliefs, involvement, policy preferences, and behavioral intentions. Different media effects across segments were found indicating (dis)confirmation bias, specifically, for medium levels of positive and negative engagement. The findings indicate that important events may cause limited changes in public opinion and emphasize the importance of studying segment-specific and content-specific media effects.}, }
@article {pmid31707431, year = {2019}, author = {He, J and Enomana, H and Dupras, J and Kermagoret, C and Poder, T}, title = {Measuring Recreation Benefit Loss under Climate Change with Revealed and Stated Behavior Data: The Case of Lac Saint-Pierre World Biosphere Reserve (Québec, Canada).}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {31707431}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {510019-123//OURANOS/ ; }, abstract = {Based on a case study carried out on the Lac Saint-Pierre (LSP) World Biosphere Reserve (Québec, Canada), this paper estimates ecosystem service loss, more precisely the loss related to cultural and recreational activities of the LSP due to the fall of its water level under the pressure of climate change. We measure two dimensions of this loss. As a first step, the extrapolation of our representative survey reports $100 million annual loss in terms of recreation revenue due to the trip reduction to LSP, which is about 60% of current level. Subsequently, the travel-cost data and the contingent behavior data are combined in a revealed and stated behavior panel random-effect estimation, which reports an additional loss measured by consumer surplus that visitors can obtain from their trips up to $232 million, signifying 42% of reduction in their current value.}, }
@article {pmid31705203, year = {2019}, author = {Stefanova, A and Hesse, C and Krysanova, V and Volk, M}, title = {Assessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Four European Lagoon Catchments.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {64}, number = {6}, pages = {701-720}, pmid = {31705203}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Poland ; Portugal ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Spain ; *Water Resources ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This study demonstrates the importance of considering potential land use and management changes in climate impact research. By taking into account possible trends of economic development and environmental awareness, we assess effects of global warming on water availability and quality in the catchments of four European lagoons: Ria de Aveiro (Portugal), Mar Menor (Spain), Vistula Lagoon (Poland and Russia), and Tyligulskyi Liman (Ukraine). Different setups of the process-based soil and water integrated model (SWIM), representing one reference and four socio-economic scenarios for each study area: the "business as usual", "crisis", "managed horizons", and "set-aside" scenarios are driven by sets of 15 climate scenarios for a reference (1971-2000) and near future (2011-2040) scenario period. Modeling results suggest a large spatial variability of potential impacts across the study areas, due to differences in the projected precipitation trends and the current environmental and socio-economic conditions. While climate change may reduce water and nutrients input to the Ria de Aveiro and Tyligulsyi Liman and increase water inflow to the Vistula Lagoon the socio-economic scenarios and their implications may balance out or reverse these trends. In the intensely managed Mar Menor catchment, climate change has no notable direct impact on water resources, but changes in land use and water management may certainly aggravate the current environmental problems. The great heterogeneity among results does not allow formulating adaptation or mitigation measures at pan-European level, as initially intended by this study. It rather implies the need of a regional approach in coastal zone management.}, }
@article {pmid31704132, year = {2019}, author = {Boland, TM and Temte, JL}, title = {Family Medicine Patient and Physician Attitudes Toward Climate Change and Health in Wisconsin.}, journal = {Wilderness &amp; environmental medicine}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {386-393}, doi = {10.1016/j.wem.2019.08.005}, pmid = {31704132}, issn = {1545-1534}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Data Collection ; Environment ; Family Practice ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Physicians, Family ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Trust ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is an increasingly relevant public health issue attracting increasing amounts of attention. Despite family medicine being at the front line for public health, no recent studies have assessed the opinions of physicians and patients regarding climate change and health in the family medicine setting.<br><br>METHODS: Surveys were distributed to adult patients in the waiting rooms of 4 University of Wisconsin Department of Family Medicine and Community Health clinics. Four hundred three patient surveys were collected, for an 86% response rate. An online survey was distributed to all University of Wisconsin Department of Family Medicine and Community Health physicians. Fifty-eight surveys were collected for a 32% response rate.<br><br>RESULTS: Forty-four percent of patients believe climate change is currently affecting their community's health. Patients have high trust in their physician regarding environmental issues (median=4 out of 5), and 6% of patients ranked their physician as a top source of information on this topic. Sixty-four percent of physicians believe climate change is affecting their patients' health, and 17% are comfortable counseling patients about climate change and health. Although 71% of physicians believe climate change is relevant to primary care, 31% believe that physicians should have an active role in discussing climate change with patients.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Patients and physicians are concerned about climate change and its health implications. Patient data reveals that physicians are highly trusted but underutilized sources. However, physicians are unsure of their role in addressing this topic. Thus, a large opportunity exists for family physicians to educate patients on the emerging issue of climate change and health.}, }
@article {pmid31701634, year = {2020}, author = {Prieto, I and Querejeta, JI}, title = {Simulated climate change decreases nutrient resorption from senescing leaves.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {1795-1807}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14914}, pmid = {31701634}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {19477/PI/14//Fundaci&#xf3;n S&#xe9;neca/International ; CGL2013-48753-R//Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient&#xed;ficas/International ; FPDI-2013-16221//Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Nitrogen ; Nutrients ; Phosphorus ; Plant Leaves ; }, abstract = {Nutrient resorption is the process whereby plants recover nutrients from senescing leaves and reallocate them to storage structures or newer tissues. Elemental resorption of foliar N and P has been shown to respond to temperature and precipitation, but we know remarkably little about the influence of warming and drought on the resorption of these and other essential plant macro- and micronutrients, which could alter the ability of species to recycle their nutrients. We conducted a 5 year manipulative field study to simulate predicted climate change conditions and studied the effects of warming (W), rainfall reduction (RR), and their combination (W+RR) on nutrient resorption efficiency in five coexisting shrub species in a semiarid shrubland. Both mature and senesced leaves showed significant reductions in their nutrient contents and an altered stoichiometry in response to climate change conditions. Warming (W, W+RR) reduced mature leaf N, K, Ca, S, Fe, and Zn and senesced leaf N, Ca, Mg, S, Fe, and Zn contents relative to ambient temperature conditions. Warming increased mature leaf C/N ratios and decreased N/P and C/P ratios and increased senesced leaf C/N and C/P ratios. Furthermore, W and W+RR reduced nutrient resorption efficiencies for N (6.3%), K (19.8%), S (70.9%) and increased Ca and Fe accumulation in senesced leaves (440% and 35.7%, respectively) relative to the control treatment. Rainfall reduction decreased the resorption efficiencies of N (6.7%), S (51%), and Zn (46%). Reductions in nutrient resorption efficiencies with warming and/or rainfall reduction were rather uniform and consistent across species. The negative impacts of warming and rainfall reduction on foliar nutrient resorption efficiency will likely cause an impairment of plant nutrient budgets and fitness across coexisting native shrubs in this nutrient-poor habitat, with probable implications for key ecosystem functions such as reductions in nutrient retention in vegetation, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling rates.}, }
@article {pmid31701595, year = {2020}, author = {Olmos, M and Payne, MR and Nevoux, M and Prévost, E and Chaput, G and Du Pontavice, H and Guitton, J and Sheehan, T and Mills, K and Rivot, E}, title = {Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {1319-1337}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14913}, pmid = {31701595}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//European Regional Development Fund/International ; //Agence Fran&#xe7;aise de la Biodiversit&#xe9;/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; North America ; Norway ; *Salmo salar ; }, abstract = {A major challenge in understanding the response of populations to climate change is to separate the effects of local drivers acting independently on specific populations, from the effects of global drivers that impact multiple populations simultaneously and thereby synchronize their dynamics. We investigated the environmental drivers and the demographic mechanisms of the widespread decline in marine survival rates of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over the last four decades. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian life cycle model to quantify the spatial synchrony in the marine survival of 13 large groups of populations (called stock units, SU) from two continental stock groups (CSG) in North America (NA) and Southern Europe (SE) over the period 1971-2014. We found strong coherence in the temporal variation in postsmolt marine survival among the 13 SU of NA and SE. A common North Atlantic trend explains 37% of the temporal variability of the survivals for the 13 SU and declines by a factor of 1.8 over the 1971-2014 time series. Synchrony in survival trends is stronger between SU within each CSG. The common trends at the scale of NA and SE capture 60% and 42% of the total variance of temporal variations, respectively. Temporal variations of the postsmolt survival are best explained by the temporal variations of sea surface temperature (SST, negative correlation) and net primary production indices (PP, positive correlation) encountered by salmon in common domains during their marine migration. Specifically, in the Labrador Sea/Grand Banks for populations from NA, 26% and 24% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively and in the Norwegian Sea for populations from SE, 21% and 12% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively. The findings support the hypothesis of a response of salmon populations to large climate-induced changes in the North Atlantic simultaneously impacting populations from distant continental habitats.}, }
@article {pmid31700686, year = {2019}, author = {Alexander, M}, title = {Sustainability and spinal cord injury: attending to climate change and disability.}, journal = {Spinal cord series and cases}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {88}, pmid = {31700686}, issn = {2058-6124}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disabled Persons/*rehabilitation ; Humans ; Spinal Cord Injuries/complications/*rehabilitation ; Sustainable Development/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid31700020, year = {2019}, author = {Góis, AR and Santos, FP and Pacheco, JM and Santos, FC}, title = {Reward and punishment in climate change dilemmas.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {16193}, pmid = {31700020}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Mitigating climate change effects involves strategic decisions by individuals that may choose to limit their emissions at a cost. Everyone shares the ensuing benefits and thereby individuals can free ride on the effort of others, which may lead to the tragedy of the commons. For this reason, climate action can be conveniently formulated in terms of Public Goods Dilemmas often assuming that a minimum collective effort is required to ensure any benefit, and that decision-making may be contingent on the risk associated with future losses. Here we investigate the impact of reward and punishment in this type of collective endeavors - coined as collective-risk dilemmas - by means of a dynamic, evolutionary approach. We show that rewards (positive incentives) are essential to initiate cooperation, mostly when the perception of risk is low. On the other hand, we find that sanctions (negative incentives) are instrumental to maintain cooperation. Altogether, our results are gratifying, given the a-priori limitations of effectively implementing sanctions in international agreements. Finally, we show that whenever collective action is most challenging to succeed, the best results are obtained when both rewards and sanctions are synergistically combined into a single policy.}, }
@article {pmid31699868, year = {2019}, author = {Costain, F}, title = {Farming and global warming.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {185}, number = {18}, pages = {575-576}, doi = {10.1136/vr.l6366}, pmid = {31699868}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Farms ; *Global Warming ; *Livestock ; }, }
@article {pmid31698271, year = {2020}, author = {Murdoch, A and Mantyka-Pringle, C and Sharma, S}, title = {The interactive effects of climate change and land use on boreal stream fish communities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {700}, number = {}, pages = {134518}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134518}, pmid = {31698271}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Fishes ; *Rivers ; Taiga ; }, abstract = {Ongoing and projected climate change is likely to greatly alter co-occurring stressor mechanisms, yet these potential interactions remain poorly understood in natural freshwater systems worldwide. As the global biodiversity crisis deepens, successful conservation efforts will hinge on developing mechanistic multiple stressor frameworks that have been ground-truthed in natural systems containing complex species dynamics and ecological processes. Our study examined the combined and interacting effects of potential climate and land use stressors on boreal stream fishes using data from over 300 catchments across a broad 250,000 km[2] region. To characterize boreal fish community health, we examined four indicators including species richness, total catch per unit effort, the proportion of lithophilic spawners (fish sensitive to sedimentation), and the assemblage tolerance index which provides a measurement of the overall community tolerance to disturbance. Land use stressors included total anthropogenic land use area and linear disturbance at multiple watershed scales as well as two site-specific habitat degradation indicators (dissolved oxygen and the proportion of fine substrate). Overall community richness and productivity were not negatively related to land use changes indicating potential compensatory dynamics (e.g. where intolerant species are replaced with more tolerant species as habitat quality degrades). In contrast, we observed declines for sensitive species, including highly valued salmonids, that varied depending on interactions between local climate, land use, and stream type. Sensitive species declines were concentrated in regions experiencing increased land use and warming, whereas increases were observed in cooler regions consistent with a subsidy-stress response. In addition, lithophilic spawners declined in watersheds experiencing warmer and wetter conditions owing to potential indirect effects on spawning habitat quality. Results from our study provide novel insight into complex climate and land use interactions occurring across a broad, real-world landscape, and highlight the potential for amplified species declines under future warming and land use scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid31696611, year = {2019}, author = {Woodward, A}, title = {Climate change and the surgeon: what is the problem? Why is it so hard? What can be done?.}, journal = {ANZ journal of surgery}, volume = {89}, number = {11}, pages = {1358-1363}, doi = {10.1111/ans.15562}, pmid = {31696611}, issn = {1445-2197}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Delivery of Health Care/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Diet Therapy/ethics/*methods ; Greenhouse Gases/adverse effects ; Health Occupations/education/ethics ; Humans ; Knowledge ; New Zealand/epidemiology ; Program Evaluation/*methods ; Surgeons/*education/ethics ; Vehicle Emissions/analysis/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {We know very well what causes climate change, and in general terms, what the dangers are. This is a new kind of environmental problem, it is not like taking lead out of petrol, and it is important to understand why responding to climate change is so challenging. But that is no reason to give up: in fact there are many opportunities to intervene, including actions that can be taken by surgeons and other health professionals.}, }
@article {pmid31695903, year = {2019}, author = {Menezes-Silva, PE and Loram-Lourenço, L and Alves, RDFB and Sousa, LF and Almeida, SEDS and Farnese, FS}, title = {Different ways to die in a changing world: Consequences of climate change for tree species performance and survival through an ecophysiological perspective.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {20}, pages = {11979-11999}, pmid = {31695903}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Anthropogenic activities such as uncontrolled deforestation and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for triggering a series of environmental imbalances that affect the Earth's complex climate dynamics. As a consequence of these changes, several climate models forecast an intensification of extreme weather events over the upcoming decades, including heat waves and increasingly severe drought and flood episodes. The occurrence of such extreme weather will prompt profound changes in several plant communities, resulting in massive forest dieback events that can trigger a massive loss of biodiversity in several biomes worldwide. Despite the gravity of the situation, our knowledge regarding how extreme weather events can undermine the performance, survival, and distribution of forest species remains very fragmented. Therefore, the present review aimed to provide a broad and integrated perspective of the main biochemical, physiological, and morpho-anatomical disorders that may compromise the performance and survival of forest species exposed to climate change factors, particularly drought, flooding, and global warming. In addition, we also discuss the controversial effects of high CO2 concentrations in enhancing plant growth and reducing the deleterious effects of some extreme climatic events. We conclude with a discussion about the possible effects that the factors associated with the climate change might have on species distribution and forest composition.}, }
@article {pmid31695069, year = {2019}, author = {Delgado, MDM and Bettega, C and Martens, J and Päckert, M}, title = {Ecotypic changes of alpine birds to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {16082}, pmid = {31695069}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/classification/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Body Size ; Climate Change ; Color ; *Ecotype ; Melanins/metabolism ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In endotherm animals, several traits are related to climate. For example, Bergmann's rule predicts a decrease in body size within species and across closely related species with increasing temperature, whereas Gloger's rule states that birds and mammals should be darker in humid and warm environments compared to colder and drier areas. However, it is still not clear whether ecotypic responses to variation in the local environment can also apply to morphological and colouration changes through time in response to climate change. We present a 100-year-long time series on morphological and melanin-based colours of snowfinch (325 Montifringilla, 92 Pyrgilauda and 30 Onychostruthus) museum specimens. Here we show that the tarsus length of the species has decreased and the saturation of the melanin-based colour has increased, which was correlated with the increase of temperature and precipitations. As ecotypic variations are tightly linked to individual behavioural and physiological responses to environmental variations, differently sized and coloured individuals are expected to be differently penalized by global changes. This study opens the pertinent question about whether ecotypic responses can enhance population persistence in the context of global change.}, }
@article {pmid31694683, year = {2019}, author = {Huang, J and Zeng, Q and Pan, X and Guo, X and Li, G}, title = {Projections of the effects of global warming on the disease burden of ischemic heart disease in the elderly in Tianjin, China.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {1465}, pmid = {31694683}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {81872590//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 81502780//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; PKU 2019LCXQ008//the Clinical Medicine Plus X-Young Scholars Project, Peking University/ ; 2015QNRC001//Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by the China Association for Science and Technology/ ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; China/epidemiology ; Climate ; Cost of Illness ; Female ; *Forecasting ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Male ; Myocardial Ischemia/etiology/*mortality ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of deaths worldwide and causes a tremendous disease burden. Temperature is an important environmental determinant among the many risk factors for IHD. However, the emerging temperature-related health risks of IHD in the elderly is limited because of the lack of estimates that integrate global warming and demographic change.<br><br>METHODS: Data on daily IHD deaths in the elderly aged &#x2265;65&#x2009;years and meteorological conditions were collected in Tianjin, a megacity of China, from 2006 to 2011. First, the baseline relationship between the temperature and years of life lost (YLL) from IHD was established. Then, future assessments were performed in combination with temperature projections for 19 global-scale climate models (GCMs) under 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2050s and 2070s.<br><br>RESULTS: Increased YLL from IHD in the elderly was found to be associated with future ambient temperatures. The annual temperature-related YLL from IHD in the 2050s and 2070s were higher than the baseline. For instance, increases of 4.5, 14.9 and 38.3% were found under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the 2070s. The most significant increases occurred in warm season months. The increase in heat-related YLL will not be completely offset, even with the 25% adaptation assumed. When considering demographic change, the temperature-related disease burden of IHD in the elderly will be exacerbated by 158.4 to 196.6% under 3 RCPs in the 2050s and 2070s relative to the baseline.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These findings have significant meaning for environmental and public health policy making and interventions towards the important issue of the health impacts of global warming on the elderly.}, }
@article {pmid31693708, year = {2019}, author = {Asadgol, Z and Mohammadi, H and Kermani, M and Badirzadeh, A and Gholami, M}, title = {The effect of climate change on cholera disease: The road ahead using artificial neural network.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {e0224813}, pmid = {31693708}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Cholera/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Geography ; Humans ; Iran/epidemiology ; *Neural Networks, Computer ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been described to raise outbreaks of water-born infectious diseases and increases public health concerns. This study aimed at finding out these impacts on cholera infections by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) from 2021 to 2050. Daily data for cholera infection cases in Qom city, which is located in the center of Iran, were analyzed from 1998 to 2016. To determine the best lag time and combination of inputs, Gamma Test (GT) was applied. General circulation model outputs were utilized to project future climate pattern under two scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Statistical downscaling was done to produce high-resolution synthetic time series weather dataset. ANNs were applied for simulating the impact of climate change on cholera. The observed climate variables including maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were tagged as predictors in ANNs. Cholera cases were considered as the target outcome variable. Projected future (2020-2050) climate in previous step was carried out to assess future cholera incidence. A seasonal trend in cholera infection was seen. Our results elucidated that the best lag time was 21 days. According to the results of downscaling tool, future climate in the study area by 2050 will be warmer and wetter. Simulation of cholera cases indicated that there is a clear trend of increasing cholera cases under the worst scenario (RCP8.5) by the year 2050 and the highest cholera cases observe in warmer months. The precipitation was recognized as the most effective input variable by sensitivity analysis. We observed a significant correlation between low precipitation and cholera infection. There is a strong evidence to show that cholera disease is correlated with environment variables, as low precipitation and high temperatures in warmer months could provide the swifter bacterial replication. These conditions in Iran, especially in the central parts, may raise the cholera infection rates. Furthermore, ANNs is an executive tool to simulate the impact of climate change on cholera to estimate the future trend of cholera incidence for adopting protective measures in endemic areas.}, }
@article {pmid31691129, year = {2020}, author = {Dapilah, F and Nielsen, J&#xd8;}, title = {Climate change extremes and barriers to successful adaptation outcomes: Disentangling a paradox in the semi-arid savanna zone of northern Ghana.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {49}, number = {8}, pages = {1437-1449}, pmid = {31691129}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {Ref#91616271//The Government of Ghana and the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) Doctoral Scholarship Programme/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Ghana ; *Grassland ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The literature on barriers to climate change adaptation has largely focused on non-climatic barriers and has provided less insight into climate-induced barriers. Responding to this lacuna, this paper examines the connections between climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers in northern Ghana. Results from the qualitative fieldwork show that climatic changes have been accompanied by increases in climate change extremes (CCEs) over the last three decades. In order to adapt, smallholder farmers use improved crop varieties and other support strategies. Paradoxically, however, CCEs have undermined these strategies in several instances, causing crop yields to fall short of their actual potential and leading to financial indebtedness. Therefore, the results showcase that overcoming non-climatic barriers to the uptake of agricultural adaptation strategies is a necessary but insufficient condition for achieving successful adaptation outcomes. This is the case since new barriers to the adaptation process are constantly emerging, and CCEs are an example of this.}, }
@article {pmid31690736, year = {2019}, author = {Myhre, G and Alterskjær, K and Stjern, CW and Hodnebrog, &#xd8; and Marelle, L and Samset, BH and Sillmann, J and Schaller, N and Fischer, E and Schulz, M and Stohl, A}, title = {Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {16063}, pmid = {31690736}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such events occur in a warmer world is however less well established, and the combined effect of changes in frequency and intensity on the total amount of rain falling as extreme precipitation is much less explored, in spite of potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations and climate model simulations to document strong increases in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events occurring on decadal timescales. Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almost doubles per degree of warming, mainly due to changes in frequency, while the intensity changes are relatively weak, in accordance to previous studies. This shift towards stronger total precipitation from extreme events is seen in observations and climate models, and increases with the strength - and hence the rareness - of the event. Based on these results, we project that if historical trends continue, the most intense precipitation events observed today are likely to almost double in occurrence for each degree of further global warming. Changes to extreme precipitation of this magnitude are dramatically stronger than the more widely communicated changes to global mean precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid31687148, year = {2019}, author = {Winkler, DE and Lin, MY and Delgadillo, J and Chapin, KJ and Huxman, TE}, title = {Early life history responses and phenotypic shifts in a rare endemic plant responding to climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coz076}, pmid = {31687148}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Changes in species ranges are anticipated with climate change, where in alpine settings, fragmentation and contraction are likely. This is especially true in high altitude biodiversity hotspots, where warmer growing seasons and increased drought events may negatively impact populations by limiting regeneration. Here, we test for high-altitude species responses to the interactive effects of warming and drought in Heterotheca brandegeei, a perennial cushion plant endemic to alpine outcroppings in Sierra de San Pedro Mártir National Park, Baja California, México. We exposed H. brandegeei seedlings to experimental warming and drought conditions to document early life history responses and the species ability to tolerate climate change. Drought negatively influenced seedling growth, with overall reductions in above- and belowground biomass. Warming and drought each led to substantial reductions in leaf development. At the same time, individuals maintained high specific leaf area and carbon investment in leaves across treatments, suggesting that existing phenotypic variation within populations may be high enough to withstand climate change. However, warming and drought interacted to negatively influence leaf-level water-use efficiency (WUE). Seedling mortality rates were nearly three times higher in warming and drought treatments, suggesting bleak prospects for H. brandegeei populations in future climate conditions. Overall, our results suggest H. brandegeei populations may experience substantial declines under future warmer and drier conditions. Some individuals may be able to establish, albeit, as smaller, more stressed plants. These results further suggest that warming alone may not be as consequential to populations as drought will be in this already water-limited system.}, }
@article {pmid31687144, year = {2019}, author = {James, RS and Tallis, J}, title = {The likely effects of thermal climate change on vertebrate skeletal muscle mechanics with possible consequences for animal movement and behaviour.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coz066}, pmid = {31687144}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Climate change can involve alteration in the local temperature that an animal is exposed to, which in turn may affect skeletal muscle temperature. The underlying effects of temperature on the mechanical performance of skeletal muscle can affect organismal performance in key activities, such as locomotion and fitness-related behaviours, including prey capture and predator avoidance. The contractile performance of skeletal muscle is optimized within a specific thermal range. An increased muscle temperature can initially cause substantial improvements in force production, faster rates of force generation, relaxation, shortening, and production of power output. However, if muscle temperature becomes too high, then maximal force production and power output can decrease. Any deleterious effects of temperature change on muscle mechanics could be exacerbated by other climatic changes, such as drought, altered water, or airflow regimes that affect the environment the animal needs to move through. Many species will change their location on a daily, or even seasonal basis, to modulate the temperature that they are exposed to, thereby improving the mechanical performance of their muscle. Some species undergo seasonal acclimation to optimize muscle mechanics to longer-term changes in temperature or undergo dormancy to avoid extreme climatic conditions. As local climate alters, species either cope with the change, adapt, avoid extreme climate, move, or undergo localized extinction events. Given that such outcomes will be determined by organismal performance within the thermal environment, the effects of climate change on muscle mechanics could have a major impact on the ability of a population to survive in a particular location.}, }
@article {pmid31681344, year = {2019}, author = {Linnakoski, R and Kasanen, R and Dounavi, A and Forbes, KM}, title = {Editorial: Forest Health Under Climate Change: Effects on Tree Resilience, and Pest and Pathogen Dynamics.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1157}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.01157}, pmid = {31681344}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid31681250, year = {2019}, author = {Margesin, R and Niklinska, MA}, title = {Editorial: Elevation Gradients: Microbial Indicators of Climate Change?.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {2405}, doi = {10.3389/fmicb.2019.02405}, pmid = {31681250}, issn = {1664-302X}, }
@article {pmid31681241, year = {2019}, author = {Rodríguez, J and Gallampois, CMJ and Timonen, S and Andersson, A and Sinkko, H and Haglund, P and Berglund, &#xc5;MM and Ripszam, M and Figueroa, D and Tysklind, M and Rowe, O}, title = {Corrigendum: Effects of Organic Pollutants on Bacterial Communities Under Future Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {2388}, doi = {10.3389/fmicb.2019.02388}, pmid = {31681241}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2018.02926.].}, }
@article {pmid31681113, year = {2019}, author = {Parncutt, R}, title = {The Human Cost of Anthropogenic Global Warming: Semi-Quantitative Prediction and the 1,000-Tonne Rule.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {2323}, pmid = {31681113}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Greenhouse-gas emissions are indirectly causing future deaths by multiple mechanisms. For example, reduced food and water supplies will exacerbate hunger, disease, violence, and migration. How will anthropogenic global warming (AGW) affect global mortality due to poverty around and beyond 2100? Roughly, how much burned fossil carbon corresponds to one future death? What are the psychological, medical, political, and economic implications? Predicted death tolls are crucial for policy formulation, but uncertainty increases with temporal distance from the present and estimates may be biased. Order-of-magnitude estimates should refer to literature from diverse relevant disciplines. The carbon budget for 2°C AGW (roughly 10[12] tonnes carbon) will indirectly cause roughly 10[9] future premature deaths (10% of projected maximum global population), spread over one to two centuries. This zeroth-order prediction is relative and in addition to existing preventable death rates. It lies between likely best- and worst-case scenarios of roughly 3 × 10[8] and 3 × 10[9], corresponding to plus/minus one standard deviation on a logarithmic scale in a Gaussian probability distribution. It implies that one future premature death is caused every time roughly 1,000 (300-3,000) tonnes of carbon are burned. Therefore, any fossil-fuel project that burns millions of tons of carbon is probably indirectly killing thousands of future people. The prediction may be considered valid, accounting for multiple indirect links between AGW and death rates in a top-down approach, but unreliable due to the uncertainty of climate change feedback and interactions between physical, biological, social, and political climate impacts (e.g., ecological cascade effects and co-extinction). Given universal agreement on the value of human lives, a death toll of this unprecedented magnitude must be avoided at all costs. As a clear political message, the "1,000-tonne rule" can be used to defend human rights, especially in developing countries, and to clarify that climate change is primarily a human rights issue.}, }
@article {pmid31679495, year = {2019}, author = {Larsson, P and von Seth, J and Hagen, IJ and Götherström, A and Androsov, S and Germonpré, M and Bergfeldt, N and Fedorov, S and Eide, NE and Sokolova, N and Berteaux, D and Angerbjörn, A and Flagstad, &#xd8; and Plotnikov, V and Norén, K and Díez-Del-Molino, D and Dussex, N and Stanton, DWG and Dalén, L}, title = {Consequences of past climate change and recent human persecution on mitogenomic diversity in the arctic fox.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1788}, pages = {20190212}, pmid = {31679495}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Ancient/analysis ; Fossils ; Foxes/genetics/*physiology ; *Genetic Variation ; Genome, Mitochondrial ; *Human Activities ; Population Dynamics ; Scandinavian and Nordic Countries ; }, abstract = {Ancient DNA provides a powerful means to investigate the timing, rate and extent of population declines caused by extrinsic factors, such as past climate change and human activities. One species probably affected by both these factors is the arctic fox, which had a large distribution during the last glaciation that subsequently contracted at the start of the Holocene. More recently, the arctic fox population in Scandinavia went through a demographic bottleneck owing to human persecution. To investigate the consequences of these processes, we generated mitogenome sequences from a temporal dataset comprising Pleistocene, historical and modern arctic fox samples. We found no evidence that Pleistocene populations in mid-latitude Europe or Russia contributed to the present-day gene pool of the Scandinavian population, suggesting that postglacial climate warming led to local population extinctions. Furthermore, during the twentieth-century bottleneck in Scandinavia, at least half of the mitogenome haplotypes were lost, consistent with a 20-fold reduction in female effective population size. In conclusion, these results suggest that the arctic fox in mainland Western Europe has lost genetic diversity as a result of both past climate change and human persecution. Consequently, it might be particularly vulnerable to the future challenges posed by climate change. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'}, }
@article {pmid31678877, year = {2020}, author = {Ahmad, N and Shaffril, HAM and Abu Samah, A and Idris, K and Abu Samah, B and Hamdan, ME}, title = {The adaptation towards climate change impacts among islanders in Malaysia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {699}, number = {}, pages = {134404}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134404}, pmid = {31678877}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Malaysia ; Rain ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The climate change phenomenon has been occurring in every part of the world, including Malaysia. In particular, changes such as rising temperature, sea level rise, and unstable rain pattern are proven to affect the socio-economic routine of the community. Hence, it is necessary to learn how to adapt to it, especially those who heavily rely on nature stability. The present study examined the adaptation towards climate change among islanders in Malaysia. In addition, the current research was performed quantitatively using a developed questionnaire as the main data collection tool. In this case, a total of 400 islanders were selected as the respondents through a multi-stage sampling technique. The results revealed that the respondents recorded a moderate to high mean score for adaptation aspects namely awareness, dependency and structure. Accordingly, a number of recommendations that were highlighted can be utilized as a basis to develop community adaptation policy that is in line with the islanders' need, ability, and interests.}, }
@article {pmid31677425, year = {2020}, author = {Doberstein, B and Tadgell, A and Rutledge, A}, title = {Managed retreat for climate change adaptation in coastal megacities: A comparison of policy and practice in Manila and Vancouver.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {253}, number = {}, pages = {109753}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109753}, pmid = {31677425}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Canada ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Floods ; Philippines ; }, abstract = {'Managed retreat' is gaining considerable attention as part of megacities' climate change adaptation and resilience enhancement toolkits, and as a policy option for disaster risk reduction in coastal regions. The overarching objective of managed retreat is to reduce the exposure of people and assets to flooding, storm surges and sea level rise by retreating from these threats in a planned fashion. Managed retreat is one of four main options covered in the 'PARA' (protect/accommodate/retreat/avoid) framework explained in this paper, which can be used to enhance resilience in coastal megacities. In this paper, qualitative research methods were used to collect primary data on the feasibility of using managed retreat for two case study coastal megacities: Manila, Philippines, and Vancouver, Canada. Both case studies review the risk context of each city, local climate change adaptation/disaster risk reduction (CCA/DRR) policies linked to managed retreat, examples of managed retreat practice, and barriers to managed retreat identified through primary or secondary data analysis. Comparisons between the two cases are then carried out, and similarities and differences are highlighted. The paper concludes by suggesting possible means by which barriers to managed retreat might be overcome.}, }
@article {pmid31676988, year = {2019}, author = {Talchabhadel, R and Karki, R}, title = {Correction to: Assessing climate boundary shifting under climate change scenarios across Nepal.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {12}, pages = {707}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-019-7907-0}, pmid = {31676988}, issn = {1573-2959}, abstract = {The original version of this article unfortunately contained an error. All "50s" and "70s" were replaced by "1950s" and "1970s" throughout the published paper.}, }
@article {pmid31676620, year = {2019}, author = {Perkins, R}, title = {Farming and global warming.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {185}, number = {17}, pages = {542-543}, doi = {10.1136/vr.l6240}, pmid = {31676620}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Farms ; *Global Warming ; *Livestock ; }, }
@article {pmid31673768, year = {2021}, author = {Langvall, O and Ottosson Löfvenius, M}, title = {Long-term standardized forest phenology in Sweden: a climate change indicator.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {65}, number = {3}, pages = {381-391}, pmid = {31673768}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Seasons ; Sweden ; Temperature ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Because climate change alters patterns of vegetative growth, long-term phenological measurements and observations can provide important data for analyzing its impact. Phenological assessments are usually made as records of calendar dates when specific phase changes occur. Such assessments have benefits and are used in Citizen Science monitoring. However, these kinds of data often have low statistical precision when describing gradual changes. Frequent monitoring of the phenological traits of forest trees and berries as they undergo gradual change is needed to acquire good temporal resolution of transitions relative to other factors, such as susceptibility to frosts, insects, and fungi, and the use of berries as a food resource. Intensive weekly monitoring of the growth of apical and branch buds and the elongation of shoots and leaves on four tree species, and the abundance of flowers and berries of bilberry and lingonberry, has been performed in Sweden since 2006. Here, we present quantitative methods for interpolating such data, which detail the gradual changes between assessments in order to describe average rates of development and amount of interannual variation. Our analysis has shown the active growth period of trees to differ with latitude. We also observed a change in the timing of the maximum numbers of ripening berries and their successive decline. Data from tree phenology assessments can be used to recommend best forestry practice and to model tree growth, while berry data can be used to estimate when food resources for animals are most available.}, }
@article {pmid31672814, year = {2019}, author = {Storz, MA}, title = {Mitigating climate change: using the physician's tool of the trade.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {69}, number = {688}, pages = {557}, pmid = {31672814}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; Directive Counseling/*methods ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; Physician-Patient Relations ; Physicians ; }, }
@article {pmid31670444, year = {2020}, author = {Byrne, M and Foo, SA and Ross, PM and Putnam, HM}, title = {Limitations of cross- and multigenerational plasticity for marine invertebrates faced with global climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {80-102}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14882}, pmid = {31670444}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {DP150102771//Australian Research Council/International ; 2016RD0159//NSW Environmental Trust/International ; 1921465//US National Science Foundation/International ; //Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research/International ; //Pembroke Foundation International Ltd/International ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Aquatic Organisms ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Invertebrates ; }, abstract = {Although cross generation (CGP) and multigenerational (MGP) plasticity have been identified as mechanisms of acclimation to global change, the weight of evidence indicates that parental conditioning over generations is not a panacea to rescue stress sensitivity in offspring. For many species, there were no benefits of parental conditioning. Even when improved performance was observed, this waned over time within a generation or across generations and fitness declined. CGP and MGP studies identified resilient species with stress tolerant genotypes in wild populations and selected family lines. Several bivalves possess favourable stress tolerance and phenotypically plastic traits potentially associated with genetic adaptation to life in habitats where they routinely experience temperature and/or acidification stress. These traits will be important to help 'climate proof' shellfish ventures. Species that are naturally stress tolerant and those that naturally experience a broad range of environmental conditions are good candidates to provide insights into the physiological and molecular mechanisms involved in CGP and MGP. It is challenging to conduct ecologically relevant global change experiments over the long times commensurate with the pace of changing climate. As a result, many studies present stressors in a shock-type exposure at rates much faster than projected scenarios. With more gradual stressor introduction over longer experimental durations and in context with conditions species are currently acclimatized and/or adapted to, the outcomes for sensitive species might differ. We highlight the importance to understand primordial germ cell development and the timing of gametogenesis with respect to stressor exposure. Although multigenerational exposure to global change stressors currently appears limited as a universal tool to rescue species in the face of changing climate, natural proxies of future conditions (upwelling zones, CO2 vents, naturally warm habitats) show that phenotypic adjustment and/or beneficial genetic selection is possible for some species, indicating complex plasticity-adaptation interactions.}, }
@article {pmid31668621, year = {2019}, author = {Helm, B and Van Doren, BM and Hoffmann, D and Hoffmann, U}, title = {Evolutionary Response to Climate Change in Migratory Pied Flycatchers.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {21}, pages = {3714-3719.e4}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.08.072}, pmid = {31668621}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Periodicity ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; Songbirds/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is rapidly advancing spring phenology [1-3] but at different rates in different species [1, 4]. Whether these advances are solely driven by phenotypic plasticity [2, 5] or also involve evolution is hotly debated (e.g., [5-7]). In some species, including avian long-distance migrants, plastic responses to early springs may be constrained by inherited circannual timing programs [8, 9], making evolutionary adjustment the only viable mechanism for keeping pace with shifting phenology [5, 10]. This constraint may be contributing to population declines in migratory species [5, 10-12]. To test whether a migrant's timing program has evolved [10, 12], we replicated an experimental study of the annual cycle of long-distance migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) after 21 years of warming. Flycatchers are a model for studying constrained ecological responses to climate change [6, 10, 12, 13]. We show that the phase of the flycatcher circannual clock controlling spring moult, migration, and reproductive timing advanced by 9 days. A nearby wild population mirrored these changes, concurrently advancing egg-laying by 11 days. Furthermore, the time window during which wild flycatcher reproductive timing was most sensitive to ambient temperature advanced by 0.8 days year[-1]. These results support a role of phenotypic evolution [14] in changing spring phenology [15, 16]. We suggest that the timing programs of long-distance migratory birds may have greater adaptive potential than previously thought, leaving some scope for evolutionary rescue in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid31667011, year = {2019}, author = {Cursach, JA and Arriagada, A and Rau, JR and Ojeda, J and Bizama, G and Becerra, A}, title = {Predicting the potential distribution of the endemic seabird Pelecanus thagus in the Humboldt Current Large Marine Ecosystem under different climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7642}, pmid = {31667011}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The effects of global climate change on species inhabiting marine ecosystems are of growing concern, especially for endemic species that are sensitive due to restricted distribution. One method employed for determining the effects of climate change on the distribution of these organisms is species distribution modeling.<br><br>METHODS: We generated a model to evaluate the potential geographic distribution and breeding distribution of the Peruvian pelican (Pelecanus thagus). Based on maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), we identified the environmental factors that currently affect its geographic distribution and breeding. Then we predicted its future distribution range under two climate change scenarios: moderate (rcp 2.6) and severe (rcp 8.5).<br><br>RESULTS: The mean daytime temperature range and marine primary productivity explain the current potential distribution and breeding of the pelican. Under the future climate change scenarios, the spatial distribution of the pelican is predicted to slightly change. While the breeding distribution of the pelican can benefit in the moderate scenario, it is predicted to decrease (near -20 %) in the severe scenario.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The current potential geographic distribution of the pelican is influenced to a large extent by thermal conditions and primary productivity. Under the moderate scenario, a slight increase in pelican breeding distribution is predicted. This increase in habitable area is explained by the climatic conditions in southern Chile, and those climatic conditions will likely be similar to the current conditions of the central coast of Chile. We predict that the coasts of southern Chile will constitute an important refuge for the conservation of the Peruvian pelican under future climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid31665597, year = {2019}, author = {Shigetomi, Y and Ohno, H and Chapman, A and Fujii, H and Nansai, K and Fukushima, Y}, title = {Clarifying Demographic Impacts on Embodied and Materially Retained Carbon toward Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {24}, pages = {14123-14133}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b02603}, pmid = {31665597}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Japan ; }, abstract = {Modern lifestyles demand a number of products derived from petroleum-based sources that eventually cause carbon emissions. The quantification of lifestyle and household consumption impacts upon carbon emissions from both the embodied CO2 (EC) and materially retained carbon (MRC) viewpoints is critical to deriving amelioration policies and meeting emission reduction goals. This study, for the first time, details a methodology to estimate both EC and MRC for Japan, focusing on petrochemicals and woody products utilizing the time series input-output table, physical value tables and the national survey of family income and expenditure, leveraging time series input-output-based material flow analysis (IO-MFA), and structural decomposition analysis (SDA). Findings elucidated hot spots of deleterious consumption by age of householder and the critical factors which underpin them including intensity effects, pattern effects, and demographic shifts over time. Although demographic shifts associated with an aging, shrinking population in Japan decreased EC and MRC, the negative effect reduced in size over time during 1990-2005. Policy implications identify the potential to mitigate approximately 21% of required household emission reductions by 2030 through strategies including recycling initiatives and the recovery of carbon from products covered within current recycling laws and hot spot sectors which are not currently considered such as apparel.}, }
@article {pmid31664098, year = {2019}, author = {Masó, G and Kaufmann, J and Clavero, H and Fitze, PS}, title = {Age-dependent effects of moderate differences in environmental predictability forecasted by climate change, experimental evidence from a short-lived lizard (Zootoca vivipara).}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {15546}, pmid = {31664098}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Life History Traits ; Lizards/*physiology ; Reproduction/physiology ; }, abstract = {Whether and how differences in environmental predictability affect life-history traits is controversial and may depend on mean environmental conditions. Solid evidence for effects of environmental predictability are lacking and thus, the consequences of the currently observed and forecasted climate-change induced reduction of precipitation predictability are largely unknown. Here we experimentally tested whether and how changes in the predictability of precipitation affect growth, reproduction, and survival of common lizard Zootoca vivipara. Precipitation predictability affected all three age classes. While adults were able to compensate the treatment effects, yearlings and juvenile females were not able to compensate negative effects of less predictable precipitation on growth and body condition, respectively. Differences among the age-classes' response reflect differences (among age-classes) in the sensitivity to environmental predictability. Moreover, effects of environmental predictability depended on mean environmental conditions. This indicates that integrating differences in environmental sensitivity, and changes in averages and the predictability of climatic variables will be key to understand whether species are able to cope with the current climatic change.}, }
@article {pmid31663172, year = {2020}, author = {Reum, JCP and McDonald, PS and Long, WC and Holsman, KK and Divine, L and Armstrong, D and Armstrong, J}, title = {Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {611-621}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.13427}, pmid = {31663172}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anomura ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. We examined how qualitative network models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision making when data, time, and funding limitations restrict use of more demanding quantitative methods. We used QNMs to evaluate management interventions intended to promote the rebuilding of a collapsed stock of blue king crab (Paralithodes platypus) (BKC) around the Pribilof Islands (eastern Bering Sea) to determine how their potential efficacy may change under climate change. Based on stakeholder input and a literature review, we constructed a QNM that described the life cycle of BKC, key ecological interactions, potential climate-change impacts, relative interaction strengths, and uncertainty in terms of interaction strengths and link presence. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify key sources of prediction uncertainty. Under a scenario of no climate change, predicted increases in BKC were reliable only when stock enhancement was implemented in a BKC hatchery-program scenario. However, when climate change was accounted for, the intervention could not counteract its adverse impacts, which had an overall negative effect on BKC. The remaining management scenarios related to changes in fishing effort on BKC predators. For those scenarios, BKC outcomes were unreliable, but climate change further decreased the probability of observing recovery. Including information on relative interaction strengths increased the likelihood of predicting positive outcomes for BKC approximately 5-50% under the management scenarios. The largest gains in prediction precision will be made by reducing uncertainty associated with ecological interactions between adult BKC and red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus). Qualitative network models are useful options when data are limited, but they remain underutilized in conservation.}, }
@article {pmid31662306, year = {2019}, author = {Wilkinson, AJK and Braggins, R and Steinbach, I and Smith, J}, title = {Costs of switching to low global warming potential inhalers. An economic and carbon footprint analysis of NHS prescription data in England.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {e028763}, pmid = {31662306}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Drug Costs/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Dry Powder Inhalers/*economics ; England ; Global Warming/economics/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Gases/adverse effects/economics ; Humans ; Metered Dose Inhalers/*adverse effects/economics ; State Medicine/economics ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Metered-dose inhalers (MDIs) contain propellants which are potent greenhouse gases. Many agencies propose a switch to alternative, low global warming potential (GWP) inhalers, such as dry powder inhalers (DPIs). We aimed to analyse the impact on greenhouse gas emissions and drug costs of making this switch.<br><br>SETTING: We studied National Health Service prescription data from England in 2017 and collated carbon footprint data on inhalers commonly used in England.<br><br>DESIGN: Inhalers were separated into different categories according to their mechanisms of action (eg, short-acting beta-agonist). Within each category we identified low and high GWP inhalers and calculated the cost and carbon impact of changing to low GWP inhalers. We modelled scenarios for swapping proportionally according to the current market share of each equivalent DPI (model 1) and switching to the lowest cost pharmaceutically equivalent DPI (model 2). We also reviewed available data on the carbon footprint of inhalers from scientific publications, independently certified reports and patents to provide more accurate carbon footprint information on different types of inhalers.<br><br>RESULTS: If MDIs using HFA propellant are replaced with the cheapest equivalent DPI, then for every 10% of MDIs changed to DPIs, drug costs decrease by &#xa3;8.2M annually. However if the brands of DPIs stay the same as 2017 prescribing patterns, for every 10% of MDIs changed to DPIs, drug costs increase by &#xa3;12.7M annually. Most potential savings are due to less expensive long-acting beta-agonist (LABA)/inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) inhalers. Some reliever inhalers (eg, Ventolin) have a carbon footprint over 25 kg CO2e per inhaler, while others use far less 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane (HFA134a) (eg, Salamol) with a carbon footprint of <10 kg CO2e per inhaler. 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-Heptafluoropropane (HFA227ea) LABA/ICS inhalers (eg, Flutiform) have a carbon footprint over 36 kg CO2e, compared with an equivalent HFA134a combination inhaler (eg, Fostair) at <20 kg CO2e. For every 10% of MDIs changed to DPIs, 58 kt CO2e could be saved annually in England.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Switching to DPIs would result in large carbon savings and can be achieved alongside reduced drug costs by using less expensive brands. Substantial carbon savings can be made by using small volume HFA134a MDIs, in preference to large volume HFA134a MDIs, or those containing HFA227ea as a propellant.}, }
@article {pmid31658411, year = {2020}, author = {Potter, S and Solvik, K and Erb, A and Goetz, SJ and Johnstone, JF and Mack, MC and Randerson, JT and Román, MO and Schaaf, CL and Turetsky, MR and Veraverbeke, S and Walker, XJ and Wang, Z and Massey, R and Rogers, BM}, title = {Climate change decreases the cooling effect from postfire albedo in boreal North America.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {1592-1607}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14888}, pmid = {31658411}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {NNX14AI73G/NASA/NASA/United States ; NNX15AU56A/NASA/NASA/United States ; NNX14AI73G/NASA/NASA/United States ; NNX15AU56A/NASA/NASA/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Fires ; North America ; Taiga ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heterogeneous and depend on a variety of factors related to soils, topography, climate, land cover/vegetation type, successional dynamics, time since fire, season, and fire severity. However, how these variables interact to influence albedo is not well understood, and quantifying these relationships and predicting postfire albedo becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and management frameworks evolve to consider climate impacts. Here we developed a MODIS-derived 'blue sky' albedo product and a novel machine learning modeling framework to predict fire-driven changes in albedo under historical and future climate scenarios across boreal North America. Converted to radiative forcing (RF), we estimated that fires generate an annual mean cooling of -1.77 ± 1.35 W/m[2] from albedo under historical climate conditions (1971-2000) integrated over 70 years postfire. Increasing postfire albedo along a south-north climatic gradient was offset by a nearly opposite gradient in solar insolation, such that large-scale spatial patterns in RF were minimal. Our models suggest that climate change will lead to decreases in mean annual postfire albedo, and hence a decreasing strength of the negative RF, a trend dominated by decreased snow cover in spring months. Considering the range of future climate scenarios and model uncertainties, we estimate that for fires burning in the current era (2016) the cooling effect from long-term postfire albedo will be reduced by 15%-28% due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31655864, year = {2019}, author = {Islam, MA and Hoque, MA and Ahmed, KM and Butler, AP}, title = {Impact of Climate Change and Land Use on Groundwater Salinization in Southern Bangladesh-Implications for Other Asian Deltas.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {64}, number = {5}, pages = {640-649}, pmid = {31655864}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Asia ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; *Groundwater ; Salinity ; }, abstract = {Pervasive salinity in soil and water is affecting agricultural yield and the health of millions of delta dwellers in Asia. This is also being exacerbated by climate change through increases in sea level and tropical storm surges. One consequence of this has been a widespread introduction of salt water shrimp farming. Here, we show, using field data and modeling, how changes in climate and land use are likely to result in increased salinization of shallow groundwater in SE Asian mega-deltas. We also explore possible adaptation options. We find that possible future increase of episodic inundation events, combined with salt water shrimp farming, will cause rapid salinization of groundwater in the region making it less suitable for drinking water and irrigation. However, modified land use and water management practices can mitigate the impacts on groundwater, as well as the overlying soil, from future salinization. The study therefore provides guidance for adaptation planning to reduce future salinization in Asian deltas.}, }
@article {pmid31655785, year = {2019}, author = {Swartz, MK}, title = {Taking on Climate Change Through a Health Care Lens.}, journal = {Journal of pediatric health care : official publication of National Association of Pediatric Nurse Associates &amp; Practitioners}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {623}, doi = {10.1016/j.pedhc.2019.09.002}, pmid = {31655785}, issn = {1532-656X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; United States ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid31655005, year = {2020}, author = {Doelman, JC and Stehfest, E and van Vuuren, DP and Tabeau, A and Hof, AF and Braakhekke, MC and Gernaat, DEHJ and van den Berg, M and van Zeist, WJ and Daioglou, V and van Meijl, H and Lucas, PL}, title = {Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {1576-1591}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14887}, pmid = {31655005}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//European Union's Seventh Framework Programme/International ; }, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; *Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Food Supply ; }, abstract = {Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO2 /year at 200 US$/tCO2 in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO2 cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.}, }
@article {pmid31654107, year = {2020}, author = {Reyns, W and Rineau, F and Spaak, JW and Franken, O and Berg, MP and Van Der Plas, F and Bardgett, RD and Beenaerts, N and De Laender, F}, title = {Food Web Uncertainties Influence Predictions of Climate Change Effects on Soil Carbon Sequestration in Heathlands.}, journal = {Microbial ecology}, volume = {79}, number = {3}, pages = {686-693}, pmid = {31654107}, issn = {1432-184X}, support = {BOF15DOCNA02//Bijzonder Onderzoeksfonds/ ; }, mesh = {*Carbon Cycle ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Models, Biological ; Soil/*chemistry ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Carbon cycling models consider soil carbon sequestration a key process for climate change mitigation. However, these models mostly focus on abiotic soil processes and, despite its recognized critical mechanistic role, do not explicitly include interacting soil organisms. Here, we use a literature study to show that even a relatively simple soil community (heathland soils) contains large uncertainties in temporal and spatial food web structure. Next, we used a Lotka-Volterra-based food web model to demonstrate that, due to these uncertainties, climate change can either increase or decrease soil carbon sequestration to varying extents. Both the strength and direction of changes strongly depend on (1) the main consumer's (enchytraeid worms) feeding preferences and (2) whether decomposers (fungi) or enchytraeid worms are more sensitive to stress. Hence, even for a soil community with a few dominant functional groups and a simulation model with a few parameters, filling these knowledge gaps is a critical first step towards the explicit integration of soil food web dynamics into carbon cycling models in order to better assess the role soils play in climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid31653545, year = {2020}, author = {Fukuda, M and Fukuda, K}, title = {The male to female ratio of newborn infants in Japan in relation to climate change, earthquakes, fetal deaths, and singleton male and female birth weights.}, journal = {Early human development}, volume = {140}, number = {}, pages = {104861}, doi = {10.1016/j.earlhumdev.2019.104861}, pmid = {31653545}, issn = {1872-6232}, mesh = {Adult ; Birth Rate/trends ; *Birth Weight ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Earthquakes/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Female ; *Fetal Death ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Japan ; Male ; Pregnancy ; *Sex Ratio ; }, abstract = {We have updated our work regarding climate extremes in Japan and the consequences of the huge earthquake in the Fukushima Prefecture in year 2011. We have interchangeably used the term sex ratio at birth, sex ratio of births. This ratio describes the secondary sex ratio, whereas the primary sex ratio designates the male/female ratio at fertilization. The underlying mechanisms of declines in sex ratios at birth may be related to decreased fertilization of XY embryos by reduced motility of Y spermatozoa from male factor approach and increased cortisol secretion prior to conception from a female factor approach. We have shown that the declines in sex ratio at birth were observed 9 months after the Kobe earthquake but 10 months after the Tohoku and Kumamoto earthquakes. The temperature difference may be associated positively with sex ratio of fetal deaths and negatively with sex ratio of births and with singleton male and female birth weights.}, }
@article {pmid31652639, year = {2019}, author = {Li, X and Sha, J and Zhao, Y and Wang, ZL}, title = {Estimating the Responses of Hydrological and Sedimental Processes to Future Climate Change in Watersheds with Different Landscapes in the Yellow River Basin, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {31652639}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Geologic Sediments ; Hydrology ; Rivers ; *Water Supply ; Weather ; }, abstract = {This study concerned the sediment issue of the Yellow River basin. The responses of hydrological and sedimental processes to future climate change in two upland watersheds with different dominant landscapes were estimated. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios with different radiative forcing levels were considered. The outputs of eleven Global Climate Models (GCMs) were used to represent the future climate status of the 2050s and 2070s, and an ensemble means was achieved to avoid uncertainty. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was employed to downscale the outputs of GCMs for future site-scale daily weather data estimations. The Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model was employed to model the streamflow and sediment yields under various scenarios and periods. The results showed that there would be generally hotter and wetter weather conditions in the future. Increased erosion and sediment yields could be found in the study area, with lesser increments in sediment in woodland than in cultivated field. The peak of sediment would appear in the 2050s, and integrated measures for sediment control should be implemented to reduce erosion and block delivery. The multi-model approach proposed in this study had reliable performance and could be applied in other similar areas with modest data conditions.}, }
@article {pmid31651985, year = {2019}, author = {McDermott-Levy, R and Kolanowski, AM and Fick, DM and Mann, ME}, title = {Addressing the Health Risks of Climate Change in Older Adults.}, journal = {Journal of gerontological nursing}, volume = {45}, number = {11}, pages = {21-29}, doi = {10.3928/00989134-20191011-04}, pmid = {31651985}, issn = {0098-9134}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Emergencies ; Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; *Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Our climate is changing. These changes have an impact on health, especially in vulnerable populations such as older adults. Many older adults lack the physical, cognitive, social, and economic resources to avoid and/or mitigate the effects of exposure to extreme weather events. The purpose of the current article is to help nurses understand climate change and how that relates to the need for specific interventions to support climate adaptation for the older adult population. A model of exposure, contact to stressors, and adaptive capacity are used to address the health needs of older adults in the face of climate change. Gaps in nursing knowledge, resources for nurses, and a proposed agenda for research and practice in climate change are offered. Gerontological nurses are in an important position to lessen the harm of climate change in older adults through practice, research, and policy. [Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 45(11), 21-29.].}, }
@article {pmid31651982, year = {2019}, author = {Fick, DM}, title = {Caring for Our Earth and Ourselves: Focusing Attention on Climate Change and Older Adults.}, journal = {Journal of gerontological nursing}, volume = {45}, number = {11}, pages = {2-3}, doi = {10.3928/00989134-20191011-01}, pmid = {31651982}, issn = {0098-9134}, mesh = {Aged ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid31648155, year = {2019}, author = {Xu, L and Wang, X and Liu, J and He, Y and Tang, J and Nguyen, M and Cui, S}, title = {Identifying the trade-offs between climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban land use planning: An empirical study in a coastal city.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {133}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {105162}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.105162}, pmid = {31648155}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Cities ; *City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Cities play a significant role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Urban land planning shapes the urban form and is considered to be an effective approach for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Yet, there is little knowledge about what urban forms can reduce both greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate stresses while considering trade-offs between them. Here, we investigate the role of urban land use in both climate change mitigation and adaptation. In particular, we assess quantitatively the competition between strategies for mitigation and adaptation and identify potential win-win solutions in land use responses. Using a coastal city as a case study, we find that the land use strategies for unilateral mitigation or adaptation can cause contradicting consequences with respect to the reductions in GHG emissions and climate stresses, i.e. reductions in GHGs could increase climate stresses or vice versa. Poorly integrated strategies potentially may compromise international efforts to meet the Climate Action in the Sustainable Development Goals. Properly integrated mitigation and adaptation strategies, or climate-sensitive land use planning, however, can lead to win-win outcomes and eventually achieve co-benefits. Yet, any co-benefits will gradually diminish if there is a delay in climate-sensitive land use planning, implying growing GHGs and intensified climate stresses. Our analysis indicates that integrating climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban land use needs to be enacted as soon as possible: any delays in implementation reduce the window to act to maximize the co-benefits.}, }
@article {pmid31646614, year = {2020}, author = {Randall, CJ and Toth, LT and Leichter, JJ and Maté, JL and Aronson, RB}, title = {Upwelling buffers climate change impacts on coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {101}, number = {2}, pages = {e02918}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2918}, pmid = {31646614}, issn = {1939-9170}, support = {OCE-1535007//Division of Ocean Sciences/International ; OCE-1535203//Division of Ocean Sciences/International ; //U.S. Geological Survey/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Panama ; }, abstract = {Corals of the eastern tropical Pacific live in a marginal and oceanographically dynamic environment. Along the Pacific coast of Panamá, stronger seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá in the east transitions to weaker upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí in the west, resulting in complex regional oceanographic conditions that drive differential coral-reef growth. Over millennial timescales, reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí recovered more quickly from climatic disturbances compared with reefs in the Gulf of Panamá. In recent decades, corals in the Gulf of Chiriquí have also had higher growth rates than in the Gulf of Panamá. As the ocean continues to warm, however, conditions could shift to favor the growth of corals in the Gulf of Panamá, where upwelling may confer protection from high-temperature anomalies. Here we describe the recent spatial and temporal variability in surface oceanography of nearshore environments in Pacific Panamá and compare those conditions with the dynamics of contemporary coral-reef communities during and after the 2016 coral-bleaching event. Although both gulfs have warmed significantly over the last 150 yr, the annual thermal maximum in the Gulf of Chiriquí is increasing faster, and ocean temperatures there are becoming more variable than in the recent past. In contrast to historical trends, we found that coral cover, coral survival, and coral growth rates were all significantly higher in the Gulf of Panamá. Corals bleached extensively in the Gulf of Chiriquí following the 2015-2016 El Niño event, whereas upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá moderated the high temperatures caused by El Niño, allowing the corals largely to escape thermal stress. As the climate continues to warm, upwelling zones may offer a temporary and localized refuge from the thermal impacts of climate change, while reef growth in the rest of the eastern tropical Pacific continues to decline.}, }
@article {pmid31644541, year = {2019}, author = {Palu, S and Mahmoud, H}, title = {Impact of climate change on the integrity of the superstructure of deteriorated U.S. bridges.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {e0223307}, pmid = {31644541}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Architecture ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; *Transportation ; United States ; }, abstract = {Bridges in America are aging and deteriorating, causing substantial financial strain on federal resources and tax payers' money. Of the various deterioration issues in bridges, one of the most common and costly is malfunctioning of expansion joints, connecting two bridge spans, due to accumulation of debris and dirt in the joint. Although expansion joints are small components of bridges' superstructure, their malfunction can result in major structural problems and when coupled with thermal stresses, the demand on the structural elements could be further amplified. Intuitively, these additional demands are expected to even worsen if one considers potential future temperature rise due to climate change. Indeed, it has been speculated that climate change is likely to have negative effect on bridges worldwide. However, to date there has been no serious attempts to quantify this effect on a larger spatial scale with no studies pertaining to the integrity of the main load carrying girders. In this study, we attempt to quantify the effect of clogged joints and climate change on failure of the superstructure of a class of steel bridges around the U.S. We surprisingly find that potentially most of the main load carrying girders, in the analyzed bridges, could reach their ultimate capacity when subjected to service load and future climate changes. We further discover that out of nine U.S. regions, the most vulnerable bridges, in a descending order, are those located in the Northern Rockies &amp; Plains, Northwest and Upper Midwest. Ultimately, this study proposes an approach to establish a priority order of bridge maintenance and repair to manage limited funding among a vast inventory in an era of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31641461, year = {2019}, author = {Ortega, JCG and Machado, N and Diniz-Filho, JAF and Rangel, TF and Araújo, MB and Loyola, R and Bini, LM}, title = {Meta-analyzing the likely cross-species responses to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {19}, pages = {11136-11144}, pmid = {31641461}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have different performances in predicting potential geographic distributions. Here we meta-analyzed the likely effects of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of 1,205 bird species from the Neotropical region, modeled using eight ENMs and three Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). We considered the variability in ENMs performance to estimate a weighted mean difference between potential geographic distributions for baseline and future climates. On average, potential future ranges were projected to be from 25.7% to 44.5% smaller than current potential ranges across species. However, we found that 0.2% to 18.3% of the total variance in range shifts occurred "within species" (i.e., owing to the use of different modeling techniques and climate models) and 81.7% to 99.8% remained between species (i.e., it could be explained by ecological correlates). Using meta-analytical techniques akin to regression, we also showed that potential range shifts are barely predicted by bird biological traits. We demonstrated that one can combine and reduce species-specific effects with high uncertainty in ENMs and also explore potential causes of climate change effect on species using meta-analytical tools. We also highlight that the search for powerful correlates of climate change-induced range shifts can be a promising line of investigation.}, }
@article {pmid31637793, year = {2020}, author = {Smith, P and Calvin, K and Nkem, J and Campbell, D and Cherubini, F and Grassi, G and Korotkov, V and Le Hoang, A and Lwasa, S and McElwee, P and Nkonya, E and Saigusa, N and Soussana, JF and Taboada, MA and Manning, FC and Nampanzira, D and Arias-Navarro, C and Vizzarri, M and House, J and Roe, S and Cowie, A and Rounsevell, M and Arneth, A}, title = {Which practices co-deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land degradation and desertification?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {1532-1575}, pmid = {31637793}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {BB/N013484/1//UKRI/International ; 773901//European Union/International ; 776810//European Union/International ; NE/M021327/1//UKRI/International ; /WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 774378//European Union/International ; 257622//Norwegian Research Council/International ; 281113//Norwegian Research Council/International ; //IPCC Trust Fund/International ; //UK Department for Business, Energy &amp; Industrial Strategy/International ; 774124//European Union/International ; 286773//Norwegian Research Council/International ; EP/M013200/1//UKRI/International ; NE/M016900/1//UKRI/International ; 294534//Norwegian Research Council/International ; NE/P019455/1//UKRI/International ; //UKERC/International ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Food Supply ; }, abstract = {There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as "land challenges"). We assess the potential for 40 practices to address these land challenges and find that: Nine options deliver medium to large benefits for all four land challenges. A further two options have no global estimates for adaptation, but have medium to large benefits for all other land challenges. Five options have large mitigation potential (>3 Gt CO2 eq/year) without adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Five options have moderate mitigation potential, with no adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Sixteen practices have large adaptation potential (>25 million people benefit), without adverse side effects on other land challenges. Most practices can be applied without competing for available land. However, seven options could result in competition for land. A large number of practices do not require dedicated land, including several land management options, all value chain options, and all risk management options. Four options could greatly increase competition for land if applied at a large scale, though the impact is scale and context specific, highlighting the need for safeguards to ensure that expansion of land for mitigation does not impact natural systems and food security. A number of practices, such as increased food productivity, dietary change and reduced food loss and waste, can reduce demand for land conversion, thereby potentially freeing-up land and creating opportunities for enhanced implementation of other practices, making them important components of portfolios of practices to address the combined land challenges.}, }
@article {pmid31635581, year = {2019}, author = {Chersich, MF and Scorgie, F and Wright, CY and Mullick, S and Mathee, A and Hess, J and Richter, M and Rees, H}, title = {Climate change and adolescents in South Africa: The role of youth activism and the health sector in safeguarding adolescents' health and education.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {109}, number = {9}, pages = {615-619}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i9.14327}, pmid = {31635581}, issn = {2078-5135}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Adolescent Health ; *Climate Change ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Political Activism ; South Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid31635410, year = {2019}, author = {Dwirahmadi, F and Rutherford, S and Phung, D and Chu, C}, title = {Understanding the Operational Concept of a Flood-Resilient Urban Community in Jakarta, Indonesia, from the Perspectives of Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation and Development Agencies.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {31635410}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {UL1 TR001863/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; *Floods ; Humans ; Indonesia ; Risk Management ; *Risk Reduction Behavior ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Urban Population ; }, abstract = {Climate change-related extreme events such as floods have and will continue to present a great challenge to disaster risk management. There is a pressing need to develop a robust management strategy via enhancing the resiliency of the community, particularly in the context of complex urban environments, like Jakarta. Resilience is conceptualized within specific contexts and uniquely tailored to the targeted setting, yet research regarding the operational concept of a flood-resilient community in the context of Jakarta remains limited. This paper will elaborate this operational concept through understanding the desirable features and influential barriers of a flood-resilient community through the lenses of three main stakeholder groups: disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and development. It will also discuss the ways in which the synergies that exist across these groups can be enhanced. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were applied in this study, and multiple sources of data were used. The findings indicate that these groups share common views regarding the importance of human aspects being central to resilience building efforts. We argue there is an urgent need to shift the flood resilience building paradigm towards building community resilience from the people and to apply a collaborative governance approach to facilitate effective partnership between the actors involved.}, }
@article {pmid31635157, year = {2019}, author = {He, S and Qin, T and Liu, F and Liu, S and Dong, B and Wang, J and Nie, H}, title = {Effects of Slope Ecological Restoration on Runoff and Its Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {31635157}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; *Forests ; Hydrology ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers ; Seasons ; Spatial Analysis ; }, abstract = {Slope ecological restoration and climate change are important factors affecting the hydrological processes of the Huangshui River Basin in Qinghai province, China. How to quantitatively identify the impact of slope ecological restoration on runoff and whether slope ecological restoration can mitigate the impact of future climate change on runoff are both very important. In this paper, the Huangshui River above the center of Minhe county was taken as the research area, and the Pinus tabulaeformis and shrubs were taken as the main forest land types of slope ecological restoration. First, based on the law of forest land variation, the construction scales of slope ecological restoration in different periods were identified. The influence of slope ecological restoration on runoff was then quantitatively evaluated by using a distributed hydrological model. Second, the future climate scenarios of five general circulation models (GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) from 2021 to 2050 were selected and modified by model integration. Combined with the slope ecological restoration scenarios, the influence of slope ecological restoration on runoff under future climate scenarios was explored. The results showed that the effect of slope ecological restoration was significant. Compared with 1980, the area of slope ecological restoration increased by 24% in 2017. Under the present climate conditions (1960-2017), different periods of slope ecological restoration have an effect on the process of runoff in the wet season (June, July, August, and September) and dry season (January, February, March, and December), which eliminates the maximum, replenishes the minimum, and reduces the variability of runoff processes in the watershed. Under the future climate scenario (2021-50), slope ecological restoration will reduce runoff. On the other hand, climate change will increase runoff, and the combination of the two effects will have a certain offsetting effect. On the whole, comparing the influence of slope ecological restoration on the runoff process with that of climate change in different seasons, due to the main influence of slope ecological restoration, the runoff decreased by about 55% in the temperate season (April, May, October, and November), and increased by about 50% in the dry season or wet season due to the main influence of future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid31634990, year = {2019}, author = {Ayllón, D and Railsback, SF and Harvey, BC and García Quirós, I and Nicola, GG and Elvira, B and Almodóvar, A}, title = {Mechanistic simulations predict that thermal and hydrological effects of climate change on Mediterranean trout cannot be offset by adaptive behaviour, evolution, and increased food production.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {693}, number = {}, pages = {133648}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133648}, pmid = {31634990}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Adaptation, Psychological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fresh Water ; Hydrology ; Population Dynamics ; Rivers ; *Temperature ; Trout/*physiology ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Streamflow is a main driver of fish population dynamics and is projected to decrease in much of the northern hemisphere, especially in the Mediterranean region, due to climate change. However, predictions of future climate effects on cold-water freshwater fish populations have typically focused only on the ecological consequences of increasing temperatures, overlooking the concurrent and interacting effects of climate-driven changes in streamflow regimes. Here, we present simulations that contrasted the consequences of changes in thermal regime alone versus the combined effects of changes in thermal regime and streamflow for resident trout populations in distinct river types with different sensitivities to climatic change (low-altitude main river vs. high-altitude headwaters). We additionally assessed the buffering effect of increased food production that may be linked to warming. We used an eco-genetic individual-based model that integrates the behavioural and physiological effects of extrinsic environmental drivers -temperature and flow- with intrinsic dynamics -density-dependence, phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary responses - across the entire trout life cycle, with Mediterranean brown trout Salmo trutta as the model species. Our simulations indicated that: (1) Hydrological change is a critical dimension of climate change for the persistence of trout populations, in that neither river type supported viable populations under strong rates of flow change, even under scenarios of increased food production. (2) Climate-change-related environmental change most affects the largest, oldest trout via increased metabolic costs and decreased energy inputs. In both river types, populations persisted under extreme warming alone but became dominated by younger, smaller fish. (3) Density-dependent, plastic and evolutionary changes in phenology and life-history traits provide trout populations with important resilience to warming, but strong concurrent shifts in streamflow could exceed the buffering conferred by such intrinsic dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid31632221, year = {2019}, author = {Kim, KH and Koh, YJ}, title = {An Integrated Modeling Approach for Predicting Potential Epidemics of Bacterial Blossom Blight in Kiwifruit under Climate Change.}, journal = {The plant pathology journal}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {459-472}, pmid = {31632221}, issn = {1598-2254}, abstract = {The increasing variation in climatic conditions under climate change directly influences plant-microbe interactions. To account for as many variables as possible that may play critical roles in such interactions, the use of an integrated modeling approach is necessary. Here, we report for the first time a local impact assessment and adaptation study of future epidemics of kiwifruit bacterial blossom blight (KBB) in Jeonnam province, Korea, using an integrated modeling approach. This study included a series of models that integrated both the phenological responses of kiwifruit and the epidemiological responses of KBB to climatic factors with a 1 km resolution, under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Our results indicate that the area suitable for kiwifruit cultivation in Jeonnam province will increase and that the flowering date of kiwifruit will occur increasingly earlier, mainly due to the warming climate. Future epidemics of KBB during the predicted flowering periods were estimated using the Pss-KBB Risk Model over the predicted suitable cultivation regions, and we found location-specific, periodic outbreaks of KBB in the province through 2100. Here, we further suggest a potential, scientifically-informed, long-term adaptation strategy using a cultivar of kiwifruit with a different maturity period to relieve the pressures of future KBB risk. Our results clearly show one of the possible options for a local impact assessment and adaptation study using multiple models in an integrated way.}, }
@article {pmid31631949, year = {2019}, author = {Hu, X and Sejas, SA and Cai, M and Taylor, PC and Deng, Y and Yang, S}, title = {Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim.}, journal = {Climate dynamics}, volume = {52}, number = {3-4}, pages = {2005-2016}, pmid = {31631949}, issn = {0930-7575}, support = {//Langley Research Center NASA/United States ; N-999999//Intramural NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.}, }
@article {pmid31628563, year = {2019}, author = {Pliūra, A and Jankauskienė, J and Bajerkevičienė, G and Lygis, V and Suchockas, V and Labokas, J and Verbylaitė, R}, title = {Response of juveniles of seven forest tree species and their populations to different combinations of simulated climate change-related stressors: spring-frost, heat, drought, increased UV radiation and ozone concentration under elevated CO2 level.}, journal = {Journal of plant research}, volume = {132}, number = {6}, pages = {789-811}, pmid = {31628563}, issn = {1618-0860}, support = {NMP No SIT-4/2015//Lietuvos Mokslo Taryba/ ; }, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Ozone/*adverse effects ; Species Specificity ; Trees/*physiology ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {The study aimed to assess response of juvenile progeny of seven forest tree species, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies, Betula pendula, Alnus glutinosa, Populus tremula, Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior, and their populations to different combinations of climate change-related multiple stressors, simulated in a phytotron under elevated CO2 concentration: (1) heat + elevated humidity (HW); (2) heat + frost + drought (HFD); (3) heat + elevated humidity + increased UV-B radiation doses + elevated ozone concentration (HWUO); and (4) heat + frost + drought + increased UV-B radiation doses + elevated ozone concentration (HFDUO). Effects of the complex treatments, species and species-by-treatment interaction were highly significant in most of the growth, physiological and biochemical traits studied, indicating general and species-specific responses to the applied treatments. For deciduous trees, height increment was much higher under HW treatment than in ambient conditions (control) indicating a positive effect of elevated temperature and better water and CO2 availability. HFD treatment caused reduction of height increment in comparison to HW treatment in most species except for Q. robur and F. excelsior which benefited from lower humidity. Treatments HWUO and HFDUO have caused substantial damages to leaves in fast growing deciduous P. tremula, A. glutinosa and B. pendula, and resulted in their lower height increment than in HW treatment, although it was the same or even higher than that in the control. Rates of photosynthesis in most of the tree species were greatest in HFD treatment. A lower photosynthetic rate (compared to control) was observed in B. pendula, P. tremula and F. excelsior in HW treatment, and in most species-in HWUO treatment. Compared to control, intrinsic water use efficiency in all treatments was significantly lower in P. tremula, A. glutinosa and F. excelsior and higher in conifers P. sylvestris and P. abies. Significant population-by-treatment interactions found for most traits showed variation in response of populations, implying that this reflects adaptive potential of each tree species. The observed responses may not always be considered as adaptive as deteriorating growth of some populations or species may lead to loss of their competitiveness thus compromising regeneration and natural successions.}, }
@article {pmid31628358, year = {2019}, author = {Sun, C and Jiang, Z and Li, W and Hou, Q and Li, L}, title = {Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {14982}, pmid = {31628358}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The 1.5 °C global warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement has raised worldwide attention and inspired numerous studies to assess corresponding climate changes for different regions of the world. But CMIP5 models based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are 'transient simulations' and cannot reflect the response of climate warming stabilized at 1.5 °C. The current work presents an assessment of extreme temperature changes in China with simulations from 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project specially conceived for global warming levels stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. When global warming stabilizes at 1.5 °C/2.0 °C, the areal-mean temperature for whole China increases by about 0.94 °C/1.59 °C (relative to present period, taken from 2006-2015). Notable increase regions are mainly found in Northwest and Northeast-North China, but warm spell duration increases mostly in Southeast China. The effect of the additional 0.5 °C warming is particularly investigated and compared between the transient and stabilized simulations. Changes of mean and extreme temperature are larger in transient simulations than in stabilized simulations. The uncertainty range is also narrower in stabilized simulations. Under stabilized global warming scenario, extreme hot event with return period of 100 years in the present climate becomes event occurring every 4.79 (1.5 °C warming level) and 1.56 years (2.0 °C warming level), extreme cold event with return period of 10 years becomes event occurring every 67 years under 1.5 °C warming and is unlikely to occur under 2.0 °C warming. For geographic distribution, the occurrence probabilities of extreme (hot and cold) events mainly change in the Tibetan Plateau, and the extreme cold events also change in Northeast and Southeast China.}, }
@article {pmid31627393, year = {2019}, author = {Junk, J and Goergen, K and Krein, A}, title = {Future Heat Waves in Different European Capitals Based on Climate Change Indicators.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {31627393}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Forecasting ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mortality ; *Public Health ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves have shown substantial negative impacts on public health. At the same time, climate change towards increasing air temperatures throughout Europe will foster such extreme events, leading to the population being more exposed to them and societies becoming more vulnerable. Based on two climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5) we analysed the frequency and intensity of heat waves for three capital cities in Europe representing a North-South transect (London, Luxembourg, Rome). We used indices proposed by the Expert Team on Sector-Specific Climate Indices of the World Meteorological Organization to analyze the number of heat waves, the number of days that contribute to heat waves, the length of the longest heat waves, as well as the mean temperature during heat waves. The threshold for the definition of heat waves is calculated based on a reference period of 30 years for each of the three cities, allowing for a direct comparison of the projected changes between the cities. Changes in the projected air temperature between a reference period (1971-2000) and three future periods (2001-2030 near future, 2031-2060 middle future, and 2061-2090 far future) are statistically significant for all three cities and both emission scenarios. Considerable similarities could be identified for the different heat wave indices. This directly affects the risk of the exposed population and might also negatively influence food security and water supply.}, }
@article {pmid31626756, year = {2020}, author = {Williams, JA and Kao, JY and Omary, MB}, title = {How Can Individuals and the GI Community Reduce Climate Change?.}, journal = {Gastroenterology}, volume = {158}, number = {1}, pages = {14-17}, doi = {10.1053/j.gastro.2019.10.013}, pmid = {31626756}, issn = {1528-0012}, mesh = {Aviation/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Footprint/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Citizen Science ; *Climate Change ; Gastroenterologists/*psychology ; Humans ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid31625511, year = {2019}, author = {Godinho, MA and Murthy, S and Ali Mohammed, C}, title = {Academic health policy debates for local climate change leadership.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {10}, pages = {e407}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30188-3}, pmid = {31625511}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Global Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Leadership ; }, }
@article {pmid31624550, year = {2019}, author = {Brown, DJ and Donner, DM and Ribic, CA and Bocetti, CI}, title = {Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {18}, pages = {10263-10276}, pmid = {31624550}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.}, }
@article {pmid31624326, year = {2019}, author = {Naoe, S and Tayasu, I and Sakai, Y and Masaki, T and Kobayashi, K and Nakajima, A and Sato, Y and Yamazaki, K and Kiyokawa, H and Koike, S}, title = {Downhill seed dispersal by temperate mammals: a potential threat to plant escape from global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {14932}, pmid = {31624326}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Actinidia/*physiology ; Altitude ; Animals ; Feces ; Feeding Behavior/*physiology ; Forests ; *Fruit ; *Global Warming ; Japan ; Macaca fuscata/physiology ; Mustelidae/physiology ; Raccoon Dogs/physiology ; Seasons ; Seed Dispersal/*physiology ; Seeds ; Ursidae/physiology ; }, abstract = {Vertical seed dispersal, i.e. seed dispersal towards a higher or lower altitude, is considered a critical process for plant escape from climate change. However, studies exploring vertical seed dispersal are scarce, and thus, its direction, frequency, and mechanisms are little known. In the temperate zone, evaluating vertical seed dispersal of animal-dispersed plants fruiting in autumn and/or winter is essential considering the dominance of such plants in temperate forests. We hypothesized that their seeds are dispersed towards lower altitudes because of the downhill movement of frugivorous animals following the autumn-to-winter phenology of their food plants which proceeds from the mountain tops to the foot in the temperate zone. We evaluated the vertical seed dispersal of the autumn-fruiting wild kiwi, Actinidia arguta, which is dispersed by temperate mammals. We collected dispersed seeds from mammal faeces in the Kanto Mountains of central Japan and estimated the distance of vertical seed dispersal using the oxygen isotope ratios of the dispersed seeds. We found the intensive downhill seed dispersal of wild kiwi by all seed dispersers, except the raccoon dog (bear: mean -393.1 m; marten: -245.3 m; macaque: -98.5 m; and raccoon dog: +4.5 m). Mammals with larger home ranges dispersed seeds longer towards the foot of the mountains. Furthermore, we found that seeds produced at higher altitudes were dispersed a greater distance towards the foot of the mountains. Altitudinal gradients in autumn-to-winter plant phenology and other mountain characteristics, i.e. larger surface areas and more attractive human crops at lower altitudes compared to higher altitudes, were considered drivers of downhill seed dispersal via animal movement. Strong downhill seed dispersal by mammals suggests that populations of autumn-to-winter fruiting plants dispersed by animals may not be able to sufficiently escape from current global warming in the temperate zone.}, }
@article {pmid31623312, year = {2019}, author = {Sathyendranath, S and Brewin, RJW and Brockmann, C and Brotas, V and Calton, B and Chuprin, A and Cipollini, P and Couto, AB and Dingle, J and Doerffer, R and Donlon, C and Dowell, M and Farman, A and Grant, M and Groom, S and Horseman, A and Jackson, T and Krasemann, H and Lavender, S and Martinez-Vicente, V and Mazeran, C and Mélin, F and Moore, TS and Müller, D and Regner, P and Roy, S and Steele, CJ and Steinmetz, F and Swinton, J and Taberner, M and Thompson, A and Valente, A and Zühlke, M and Brando, VE and Feng, H and Feldman, G and Franz, BA and Frouin, R and Gould, RW and Hooker, SB and Kahru, M and Kratzer, S and Mitchell, BG and Muller-Karger, FE and Sosik, HM and Voss, KJ and Werdell, J and Platt, T}, title = {An Ocean-Colour Time Series for Use in Climate Studies: The Experience of the Ocean-Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI).}, journal = {Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {19}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {31623312}, issn = {1424-8220}, support = {4000101437/10/I-LG//European Space Agency/ ; }, abstract = {Ocean colour is recognised as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS); and spectrally-resolved water-leaving radiances (or remote-sensing reflectances) in the visible domain, and chlorophyll-a concentration are identified as required ECV products. Time series of the products at the global scale and at high spatial resolution, derived from ocean-colour data, are key to studying the dynamics of phytoplankton at seasonal and inter-annual scales; their role in marine biogeochemistry; the global carbon cycle; the modulation of how phytoplankton distribute solar-induced heat in the upper layers of the ocean; and the response of the marine ecosystem to climate variability and change. However, generating a long time series of these products from ocean-colour data is not a trivial task: algorithms that are best suited for climate studies have to be selected from a number that are available for atmospheric correction of the satellite signal and for retrieval of chlorophyll-a concentration; since satellites have a finite life span, data from multiple sensors have to be merged to create a single time series, and any uncorrected inter-sensor biases could introduce artefacts in the series, e.g., different sensors monitor radiances at different wavebands such that producing a consistent time series of reflectances is not straightforward. Another requirement is that the products have to be validated against in situ observations. Furthermore, the uncertainties in the products have to be quantified, ideally on a pixel-by-pixel basis, to facilitate applications and interpretations that are consistent with the quality of the data. This paper outlines an approach that was adopted for generating an ocean-colour time series for climate studies, using data from the MERIS (MEdium spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor of the European Space Agency; the SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide-Field-of-view Sensor) and MODIS-Aqua (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-Aqua) sensors from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (USA); and VIIRS (Visible and Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA). The time series now covers the period from late 1997 to end of 2018. To ensure that the products meet, as well as possible, the requirements of the user community, marine-ecosystem modellers, and remote-sensing scientists were consulted at the outset on their immediate and longer-term requirements as well as on their expectations of ocean-colour data for use in climate research. Taking the user requirements into account, a series of objective criteria were established, against which available algorithms for processing ocean-colour data were evaluated and ranked. The algorithms that performed best with respect to the climate user requirements were selected to process data from the satellite sensors. Remote-sensing reflectance data from MODIS-Aqua, MERIS, and VIIRS were band-shifted to match the wavebands of SeaWiFS. Overlapping data were used to correct for mean biases between sensors at every pixel. The remote-sensing reflectance data derived from the sensors were merged, and the selected in-water algorithm was applied to the merged data to generate maps of chlorophyll concentration, inherent optical properties at SeaWiFS wavelengths, and the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm. The merged products were validated against in situ observations. The uncertainties established on the basis of comparisons with in situ data were combined with an optical classification of the remote-sensing reflectance data using a fuzzy-logic approach, and were used to generate uncertainties (root mean square difference and bias) for each product at each pixel.}, }
@article {pmid31622344, year = {2019}, author = {Kaye, TN and Bahm, MA and Thorpe, AS and Gray, EC and Pfingsten, I and Waddell, C}, title = {Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {e0210378}, pmid = {31622344}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {California ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Models, Biological ; Orchidaceae/*physiology ; Oregon ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and dependable. However, small population sizes, long gaps between surveys, and climate change may be leading to undetected extinctions of many populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread orchid, Cypripedium fasciculatum (clustered lady's slipper), to model population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time between observations. Population size and elevation were negatively associated with extinction, while extinction probability increased with time between observations. We interpret population losses at low elevations as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California and Oregon, and found that 39%-52% of the 2415 populations reported in databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas with high vulnerability to climate or land cover change.}, }
@article {pmid31621967, year = {2020}, author = {Johnson, RJ and Stenvinkel, P and Andrews, P and Sánchez-Lozada, LG and Nakagawa, T and Gaucher, E and Andres-Hernando, A and Rodriguez-Iturbe, B and Jimenez, CR and Garcia, G and Kang, DH and Tolan, DR and Lanaspa, MA}, title = {Fructose metabolism as a common evolutionary pathway of survival associated with climate change, food shortage and droughts.}, journal = {Journal of internal medicine}, volume = {287}, number = {3}, pages = {252-262}, doi = {10.1111/joim.12993}, pmid = {31621967}, issn = {1365-2796}, support = {R01 AR069137/AR/NIAMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; *Droughts ; Energy Metabolism/*physiology ; Extinction, Biological ; Fructose/*metabolism ; Hominidae ; Humans ; Mutation ; }, abstract = {Mass extinctions occur frequently in natural history. While studies of animals that became extinct can be informative, it is the survivors that provide clues for mechanisms of adaptation when conditions are adverse. Here, we describe a survival pathway used by many species as a means for providing adequate fuel and water, while also providing protection from a decrease in oxygen availability. Fructose, whether supplied in the diet (primarily fruits and honey), or endogenously (via activation of the polyol pathway), preferentially shifts the organism towards the storing of fuel (fat, glycogen) that can be used to provide energy and water at a later date. Fructose causes sodium retention and raises blood pressure and likely helped survival in the setting of dehydration or salt deprivation. By shifting energy production from the mitochondria to glycolysis, fructose reduced oxygen demands to aid survival in situations where oxygen availability is low. The actions of fructose are driven in part by vasopressin and the generation of uric acid. Twice in history, mutations occurred during periods of mass extinction that enhanced the activity of fructose to generate fat, with the first being a mutation in vitamin C metabolism during the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction (65 million years ago) and the second being a mutation in uricase that occurred during the Middle Miocene disruption (12-14 million years ago). Today, the excessive intake of fructose due to the availability of refined sugar and high-fructose corn syrup is driving 'burden of life style' diseases, including obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure.}, }
@article {pmid31621228, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, YR and Xie, HM and Luo, HL and Yang, BY and Xiong, DJ}, title = {[Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Cymbidium kanran and the simulation of distribution pattern].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {3419-3425}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201910.011}, pmid = {31621228}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Spatial Analysis ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {In this study, data of 19 climatic factors were downloaded from the World Climate website. A total of 233 Cymbidium kanran distribution data were obtained through online review and field visits. Using MaxEnt model and combined with ArcGIS spatial analysis technology, the potential distribution area and distribution pattern of C. kanran in different periods were simulated, as well as its distribution during the last glacial period and 2070. The results showed that the curve indexes (AUC) value of the model training set was 0.957, and the AUC value of the verification set was 0.953, indicating that the prediction accuracy of the model was very high. The current distribution of C. kanran was mostly affected by the driest quarter precipitation, mean annual precipitation, wettest quarter precipitation, and mean annual temperature range. The contribution rates were 50.3%, 15.9%, 8.4% and 4.4%, respectively, with the total contribution rate being 79.0%. In the last glacial period, C. kanran mainly distributed in Wuyi Mountain, Luojing Mountain, Nanling, Taiwan's five major mountains and some hills in the northern part of Guangxi. From now to 2070, the distribution of C. kanran area will decrease by 22.4%. The southwestern part of Guangxi, the central part of Yunnan, and the junctions of Jiangxi, Fujian and Guangdong provinces will expand, while that in eastern Jiangxi, western Fujian, and the border between these two provinces will shrink.}, }
@article {pmid31618246, year = {2019}, author = {Bastin, JF and Clark, E and Elliott, T and Hart, S and van den Hoogen, J and Hordijk, I and Ma, H and Majumder, S and Manoli, G and Maschler, J and Mo, L and Routh, D and Yu, K and Zohner, CM and Crowther, TW}, title = {Correction: Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {e0224120}, pmid = {31618246}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217592.].}, }
@article {pmid31618130, year = {2019}, author = {Torres, MA}, title = {Implications of ARTIC: Is This the Beginning of a Climate Change?.}, journal = {Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology}, volume = {37}, number = {35}, pages = {3329-3332}, doi = {10.1200/JCO.19.02100}, pmid = {31618130}, issn = {1527-7755}, mesh = {*Breast Neoplasms ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Mastectomy, Segmental ; }, }
@article {pmid31618008, year = {2019}, author = {Timonen, H and Karjalainen, P and Aalto, P and Saarikoski, S and Mylläri, F and Karvosenoja, N and Jalava, P and Asmi, E and Aakko-Saksa, P and Saukkonen, N and Laine, T and Saarnio, K and Niemelä, N and Enroth, J and Väkevä, M and Oyola, P and Pagels, J and Ntziachristos, L and Cordero, R and Kuittinen, N and Niemi, JV and Rönkkö, T}, title = {Adaptation of Black Carbon Footprint Concept Would Accelerate Mitigation of Global Warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {21}, pages = {12153-12155}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b05586}, pmid = {31618008}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Air Pollution ; Carbon ; *Carbon Footprint ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid31617038, year = {2020}, author = {Fan, D and Zhong, H and Hu, B and Tian, Z and Sun, L and Fischer, G and Wang, X and Jiang, Z}, title = {Agro-ecological suitability assessment of Chinese Medicinal Yam under future climate change.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {987-1000}, pmid = {31617038}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {4160011367//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41671113//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 51761135024//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; AJYG-643BJQ//UK Met Office CSSP-China Programme/ ; 2018YFA0606204//National Key R&amp; D Program of China/ ; 2016YFC0502702//National Key R&amp; D Program of China/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; Climate Change ; *Dioscorea/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plants, Medicinal ; }, abstract = {Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY) has been prescribed as medicinal food for thousand years in China by Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) practitioners. Its medical benefits include nourishing the stomach and spleen to improve digestion, replenishing lung and kidney, etc., according to the TCM literature. As living standard rises and public health awareness improves in recent years, the potential medicinal benefits of CMY have attracted increasing attention in China. It has been found that the observed climate change in last several decades, together with the change in economic structure, has driven significant shift in the pattern of the traditional CMY planting areas. To identify suitable planting area for CMY in the near future is critical for ensuring the quality and supply quantity of CMY, guiding the layout of CMY industry, and safeguarding the sustainable development of CMY resources for public health. In this study, we first collect 30-year records of CMY varieties and their corresponding phenology and agro-meteorological observations. We then consolidate these data and use them to enrich and update the eco-physiological parameters of CMY in the agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model. The updated CMY varieties and AEZ model are validated using the historical planting area and production under observed climate conditions. After the successful validation, we use the updated AEZ model to simulate the potential yield of CMY and identify the suitable planting regions under future climate projections in China. This study shows that regions with high ecological similarity to the genuine and core producing areas of CMY mainly distribute in eastern Henan, southeastern Hebei, and western Shandong. The climate suitability of these areas will be improved due to global warming in the next 50 years, and therefore, they will continue to be the most suitable CMY planting regions.}, }
@article {pmid31615904, year = {2019}, author = {Bongaarts, J and Sitruk-Ware, R}, title = {Climate change and contraception.}, journal = {BMJ sexual &amp; reproductive health}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {233-235}, doi = {10.1136/bmjsrh-2019-200399}, pmid = {31615904}, issn = {2515-2009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Contraception ; Family Planning Services ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid31611719, year = {2019}, author = {Reynolds, JL}, title = {Solar geoengineering to reduce climate change: a review of governance proposals.}, journal = {Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {475}, number = {2229}, pages = {20190255}, pmid = {31611719}, issn = {1364-5021}, abstract = {Although solar geoengineering (alternatively 'solar radiation management' or 'solar radiation modification') appears to offer a potentially effective, inexpensive and technologically feasible additional response to climate change, it would pose serious physical risks and social challenges. Governance of its research, development and deployment is thus salient. This article reviews proposals for governing solar geoengineering. Its research may warrant dedicated governance to facilitate effectiveness and to reduce direct and socially mediated risks. Because states are not substantially engaging with solar geoengineering, non-state actors can play important governance roles. Although the concern that solar geoengineering would harmfully lessen abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is widespread, what can be done to reduce such displacement remains unclear. A moratorium on outdoor activities that would surpass certain scales is often endorsed, but an effective one would require resolving some critical, difficult details. In the long term, how to legitimately make decisions regarding whether, when and how solar geoengineering would be used is central, and suggestions how to do so diverge. Most proposals to govern commercial actors, who could provide goods and services for solar geoengineering, focus on intellectual property policy. Compensation for possible harm from outdoor activities could be through liability or a compensation fund. The review closes with suggested lines of future inquiry.}, }
@article {pmid31610815, year = {2019}, author = {Garrido, R and Bacigalupo, A and Peña-Gómez, F and Bustamante, RO and Cattan, PE and Gorla, DE and Botto-Mahan, C}, title = {Potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two wild vectors of Chagas disease in Chile: Mepraia spinolai and Mepraia gajardoi.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {478}, pmid = {31610815}, issn = {1756-3305}, support = {1170367//CONICYT-FONDECYT/ ; 1140521//CONICYT-FONDECYT/ ; 1180940//CONICYT-FONDECYT/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Area Under Curve ; Chagas Disease/epidemiology/*transmission ; Chile/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Humidity ; Insect Vectors/parasitology/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Phylogeography ; ROC Curve ; Rain ; Risk Assessment ; Temperature ; Triatominae/parasitology/*physiology ; Trypanosoma cruzi/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Mepraia gajardoi and Mepraia spinolai are endemic triatomine vector species of Trypanosoma cruzi, a parasite that causes Chagas disease. These vectors inhabit arid, semiarid and Mediterranean areas of Chile. Mepraia gajardoi occurs from 18° to 25°S, and M. spinolai from 26° to 34°S. Even though both species are involved in T. cruzi transmission in the Pacific side of the Southern Cone of South America, no study has modelled their distributions at a regional scale. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the potential geographical distribution of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi under current and future climate scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: We used the Maxent algorithm to model the ecological niche of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi, estimating their potential distributions from current climate information and projecting their distributions to future climatic conditions under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Future predictions of suitability were constructed considering both higher and lower public health risk situations.<br><br>RESULTS: The current potential distributions of both species were broader than their known ranges. For both species, climate change projections for 2070 in RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios showed different results depending on the methodology used. The higher risk situation showed new suitable areas, but the lower risk situation modelled a net reduction in the future potential distribution areas of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The suitable areas for both species may be greater than currently known, generating new challenges in terms of vector control and prevention. Under future climate conditions, these species could modify their potential geographical range. Preventive measures to avoid accidental human vectorial transmission by wild vectors of T. cruzi become critical considering the uncertainty of future suitable areas projected in this study.}, }
@article {pmid31610448, year = {2019}, author = {Bujosa Bestard, A and Riera Font, A}, title = {Estimation of implicit discount rates for climate change adaptation policies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {252}, number = {}, pages = {109671}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109671}, pmid = {31610448}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Policy ; }, abstract = {This article used evidence from tourists' willingness to pay (WTP) for a set of climate change adaptation policies to estimate implicit discount rates under different discounting structures. A choice experiment with two different split samples framed at two different time horizons was used to analyse how WTP changes as a function of the timing of the expected benefits. Results confirm that individuals are time sensitive to different horizons and provide support for the use of a very low discount rate in the evaluation of policies having effects in the long and very long run and show that the social acceptability of climate change (CC) adaptation policies can be affected by the timing of the benefits and the use of one or another discounting model.}, }
@article {pmid31605624, year = {2020}, author = {Giejsztowt, J and Classen, AT and Deslippe, JR}, title = {Climate change and invasion may synergistically affect native plant reproduction.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {101}, number = {1}, pages = {e02913}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2913}, pmid = {31605624}, issn = {1939-9170}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Flowers ; Plants ; Pollination ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Global change drivers can interact in synergistic ways, yet the interactive effect of global change drivers, such as climatic warming and species invasions, on plant pollination are poorly represented in experimental studies. We paired manipulative experiments to probe two mechanistic pathways through which plant invasion and warming may alter phenology and reproduction of native plant species. In the first, we tested how experimental warming (+1.7°C) modulated flowering phenology and how this affected flowering overlap between a native plant (Dracophyllum subulatum) and an invasive plant (Calluna vulgaris L.). In the second experiment, we explored how variation in the ratio of native to invasive flowers, and the overall quantity of resources in a floral patch, affected the reproduction of the native species. We hypothesized that the flowering overlap of native and invasive plants would be altered by warming, given that invading plants typically exhibit greater phenological plasticity than native plants. Further, we hypothesized that pollination of native plant flowers would decrease in floral patches dominated by invasive plant flowers, but that this effect would depend on total floral density in the patch. As predicted, the invasive plant had a stronger phenological response to experimental warming than the native plant, resulting in increased flowering overlap between the native the invasive plants. There was a four-fold increase in the number of native flowers co-flowering with high densities of invasive flowers suggesting native plant competition for pollinators with invasive plants under a warmed climate. In the second experiment, we found depressed seed masses of the native species in high density floral patches that were dominated by invasive flowers relative to high density floral patches dominated by native flowers. At low floral densities, seed mass of native plants was unaffected by invasion. Together, these results demonstrate that by increasing their phenological overlap, warming may enhance the magnitude of existing competition for pollination exerted by an invasive plant on a native plant, particularly in plant patches with high floral density. Our results illustrate a novel pathway through which global change drivers can operate synergistically to alter an important ecosystem service: pollination.}, }
@article {pmid31604931, year = {2019}, author = {Yin, Q and Wang, J and Ren, Z and Li, J and Guo, Y}, title = {Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4640}, pmid = {31604931}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Environmental Exposure ; Geography ; Global Warming/*mortality ; Humans ; Linear Models ; Survival Analysis ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality relationship. It reflects human adaptability to local climate. The existing MMT estimates were usually based on case studies in data rich regions, and limited evidence about MMT was available at a global scale. It is still unclear what the most significant driver of MMT is and how MMT will change under global climate change. Here, by analysing MMTs in 420 locations covering six continents (Antarctica was excluded) in the world, we found that although the MMT changes geographically, it is very close to the local most frequent temperature (MFT) in the same period. The association between MFT and MMT is not changed when we adjust for latitude and study year. Based on the MFT~MMT association, we estimate and map the global distribution of MMTs in the present (2010s) and the future (2050s) for the first time.}, }
@article {pmid31604877, year = {2019}, author = {Costain, F}, title = {'Livestock are not the global warming enemy'.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {185}, number = {14}, pages = {449}, doi = {10.1136/vr.l5963}, pmid = {31604877}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Global Warming ; *Livestock ; Methane ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {ffinlo Costain argues that the focus on ruminant methane in causing global warming is ill-informed and in fact restoration of grass-based systems can result in net zero emissions from UK agriculture by 2030.}, }
@article {pmid31604209, year = {2019}, author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Jacob, D and Taylor, M and Guillén Bolaños, T and Bindi, M and Brown, S and Camilloni, IA and Diedhiou, A and Djalante, R and Ebi, K and Engelbrecht, F and Guiot, J and Hijioka, Y and Mehrotra, S and Hope, CW and Payne, AJ and Pörtner, HO and Seneviratne, SI and Thomas, A and Warren, R and Zhou, G}, title = {The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {365}, number = {6459}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw6974}, pmid = {31604209}, issn = {1095-9203}, support = {/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have led to a global mean surface temperature 1.0°C higher than during the pre-industrial period. We expand on the recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C and review the additional risks associated with higher levels of warming, each having major implications for multiple geographies, climates, and ecosystems. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would be required to maintain substantial proportions of ecosystems and would have clear benefits for human health and economies. These conclusions are relevant for people everywhere, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the escalation of climate-related risks may prevent the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.}, }
@article {pmid31604183, year = {2019}, author = {Lochhead, K and Ghafghazi, S and LeMay, V and Bull, GQ}, title = {Examining the vulnerability of localized reforestation strategies to climate change at a macroscale.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {252}, number = {}, pages = {109625}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109625}, pmid = {31604183}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Forestry ; Forests ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering the nature and condition of vast areas in the boreal forest of Canada. There are great uncertainties concerning impacts on the forest, along with how policy and economic responses will translate effectively between local and macroscales. In particular, planting tree seedlings with improved characteristics following harvesting is one localized response strategy considered essential by policymakers. However, planting costs limit the macroscale adoption of this strategy which may result in trade-offs between profitability and reducing vulnerability. In this study, we developed a decision support tool (called Q3) that links stand-level decision making to the macroscale and applied this model to investigate the financial attractiveness of planting improved stocks under one climate change threat, drought-induced seedling mortality. Using several scenarios describing planting effort, improved yields and risk to drought-induced seedling mortality, we showed that adopting improved planting stock strategies across a macroscale (i.e., the western Boreal forest of Canada) can be financially attractive when considering stand-establishment constraints and drought risk. In particular, a proactive approach can be less costly than a reactive approach to drought-induced seedling mortality. To maximize profits, the forestry industry would need to prioritize younger stands closer to processing mills that had a smaller percentage of conifer growing stocks prior to harvest. This research improves the linkages between macroscale policies and forest management activities critical for recommending future development paths that the forestry industry could follow to decrease climate change vulnerabilities.}, }
@article {pmid31604182, year = {2019}, author = {Duncan, B and Johnson, KD and Suchanek, TH and Brown, M and Largier, JL}, title = {Developing ocean climate change indicators for the north-central California coast and ocean.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {252}, number = {}, pages = {109343}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109343}, pmid = {31604182}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {California ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {The Ocean Climate Indicators Project, developed for the Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS), yielded the first set of physical and biological ocean climate indicators specifically developed for the north-central California coast and ocean region, which extends from Point Arena to Point Año Nuevo and includes the ocean shorelines of the San Francisco metropolitan area. This case study produced a series of physical and biological indicator categories through a best professional judgment (BPJ) process with an interdisciplinary group of over 50 regional research scientists and marine resource managers from a wide range of state and federal agencies, NGOs, and universities. A working group of research scientists and marine resource managers used this set of ocean climate indicators to develop the Ocean Climate Indicators Monitoring Inventory and Plan. The Plan includes monitoring goals and objectives common for eight physical and four biological indicators; specific goals for each indicator; monitoring strategies and activities; an inventory of available monitoring data; opportunities for expanding or improving existing or new monitoring approaches; and case studies with specific examples of the indicators' utility for natural resource management and basic scientific research. Beyond developing indicators that support effective science-based management decisions, this scalable process established and strengthened mutually beneficial connections between scientists and managers, resulting in indicators that had broad support of project participants, were quickly adopted by the GFNMS, and could be used by managers and scientists from this region and beyond.}, }
@article {pmid31598960, year = {2020}, author = {Logan, ML and Minnaar, IA and Keegan, KM and Clusella-Trullas, S}, title = {The evolutionary potential of an insect invader under climate change.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {74}, number = {1}, pages = {132-144}, doi = {10.1111/evo.13862}, pmid = {31598960}, issn = {1558-5646}, support = {DBI-1402497//US National Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/genetics/*physiology ; Female ; *Introduced Species ; Male ; Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Although the impacts of climate change and invasive species are typically studied in isolation, they likely interact to reduce the viability of plant and animal populations. Indeed, invasive species, by definition, have succeeded in areas outside of their native range and may therefore have higher adaptive capacity relative to native species. Nevertheless, the genetic architecture of the thermal niche, which sets a limit to the potential for populations to evolve rapidly under climate change, has never been measured in an invasive species in its introduced range. Here, we estimate the genetic architecture of thermal performance in the harlequin beetle (Harmonia axyridis), a Central Asian species that has invaded four continents. We measured thermal performance curves in more than 400 third-generation offspring from a paternal half-sib breeding experiment and analyzed the genetic variance-covariance matrix. We show that while the critical thermal limits in this species have an additive genetic basis, most components of the thermal performance curve have low heritability. Moreover, we found evidence that genetic correlations may constrain the evolution of beetles under climate change. Our results suggest that some invasive species may have limited evolutionary capacity under climate change, despite their initial success in colonizing novel environments.}, }
@article {pmid31598927, year = {2019}, author = {Tiba, S}, title = {A non-linear assessment of the urbanization and climate change nexus: the African context.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {31}, pages = {32311-32321}, pmid = {31598927}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Africa ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis/chemistry ; Climate Change ; Economic Development ; Resin Cements/*chemistry ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {The climate change issue becomes more challenging with the increasing pace of urbanization in Africa. For this purpose, we attempt to examine the relationship urbanization and CO2 emissions by applying the panel smooth transition regression model for 47 African countries during the spanning time 1990-2014. Our results reveal that the nexus between urbanization and CO2 emissions is non-linear. Our highlights recorded a monotonic nexus confirming the existence of the EKC hypothesis for the urbanization. In addition, our empirical results determine the threshold of the transition which takes the value of 42.01. Moreover, the estimated slope parameter implies that the nexus between urbanization and CO2 emissions smoothly switches from one regime to another regime but relatively rapid. Hence, it is extremely important to understand this nexus to take seriously climate change vulnerabilities. Indeed, the African economies are invited to establish efficiently the low-carbon and reduce the spatial heterogeneity to generate the green development path and provide effective structures for a platform for sustainable cities.}, }
@article {pmid31598871, year = {2019}, author = {Finkel, ML}, title = {A call for action: integrating climate change into the medical school curriculum.}, journal = {Perspectives on medical education}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {265-266}, pmid = {31598871}, issn = {2212-277X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Curriculum/standards/*trends ; Education, Medical/methods/trends ; Humans ; Schools, Medical/organization &amp; administration/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid31598535, year = {2019}, author = {Vogel, MM and Zscheischler, J and Wartenburger, R and Dee, D and Seneviratne, SI}, title = {Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human-Induced Climate Change.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {692-703}, pmid = {31598535}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {Extremely high temperatures pose an immediate threat to humans and ecosystems. In recent years, many regions on land and in the ocean experienced heat waves with devastating impacts that would have been highly unlikely without human-induced climate change. Impacts are particularly severe when heat waves occur in regions with high exposure of people or crops. The recent 2018 spring-to-summer season was characterized by several major heat and dry extremes. On daily average between May and July 2018 about 22% of the populated and agricultural areas north of 30° latitude experienced concurrent hot temperature extremes. Events of this type were unprecedented prior to 2010, while similar conditions were experienced in the 2010 and 2012 boreal summers. Earth System Model simulations of present-day climate, that is, at around +1 °C global warming, also display an increase of concurrent heat extremes. Based on Earth System Model simulations, we show that it is virtually certain (using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calibrated uncertainty language) that the 2018 north hemispheric concurrent heat events would not have occurred without human-induced climate change. Our results further reveal that the average high-exposure area projected to experience concurrent warm and hot spells in the Northern Hemisphere increases by about 16% per additional +1 °C of global warming. A strong reduction in fossil fuel emissions is paramount to reduce the risks of unprecedented global-scale heat wave impacts.}, }
@article {pmid31597935, year = {2019}, author = {Veron, S and Mouchet, M and Govaerts, R and Haevermans, T and Pellens, R}, title = {Vulnerability to climate change of islands worldwide and its impact on the tree of life.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {14471}, pmid = {31597935}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Islands ; Magnoliopsida/classification ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Island systems are among the most vulnerable to climate change, which is predicted to induce shifts in temperature, rainfall and/or sea levels. Our aim was: (i) to map the relative vulnerability of islands to each of these threats from climate change on a worldwide scale; (ii) to estimate how island vulnerability would impact phylogenetic diversity. We focused on monocotyledons, a major group of flowering plants that includes taxa of important economic value such as palms, grasses, bananas, taro. Islands that were vulnerable to climate change were found at all latitudes, e.g. in Australia, Indonesia, the Caribbean, Pacific countries, the United States, although they were more common near the equator. The loss of highly vulnerable islands would lead to relatively low absolute loss of plant phylogenetic diversity. However, these losses tended to be higher than expected by chance alone even in some highly vulnerable insular systems. This suggests the possible collapse of deep and long branches in vulnerable islands. Measuring the vulnerability of each island is a first step towards a risk analysis to identify where the impacts of climate change are the most likely and what may be their consequences on biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid31593951, year = {2019}, author = {Viana Ferreira, AM and Marajó, L and Matoso, DA and Ribeiro, LB and Feldberg, E}, title = {Chromosomal Mapping of Rex Retrotransposons in Tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum Cuvier, 1818) Exposed to Three Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Cytogenetic and genome research}, volume = {159}, number = {1}, pages = {39-47}, doi = {10.1159/000502926}, pmid = {31593951}, issn = {1424-859X}, mesh = {Animals ; Characiformes/*genetics ; Chromosome Mapping ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Gases/*adverse effects ; Karyotype ; Retroelements/*genetics ; Stress, Physiological/*genetics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Greenhouse gas emissions are known to influence the planet's temperature, mainly due to human activities. To allow hypothesis testing, as well as to seek viable alternatives for mitigation, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested 3 main scenarios for changes projected for the year 2100. In this paper, we subjected Colossoma macropomum Cuvier, 1818 (tambaqui) individuals in a microcosm to IPCC scenarios B1 (mild), A1B (intermediate), and A2 (extreme) to test possible impacts on their genome. We found chromosome heterochromatinization in specimens exposed to the A2 scenario, where terminal blocks and interstitial bands were detected on several chromosome pairs. The behavior of Rex1 and Rex3 sequences differed between the test scenarios. Hybridization of Rex1 resulted in diffuse signals which showed a gradual increase in the tested scenarios. For Rex3, an increase was observed in the A2 scenario with blocks on several chromosomes, some of which coincided with heterochromatin. Heterochromatinization is an epigenetic process, which may have occurred as a mechanism for regulating Rex3 activity. The signal pattern of Rex6 did not change, suggesting that other mechanisms are acting to regulate its activity.}, }
@article {pmid31593684, year = {2019}, author = {Catullo, RA and Llewelyn, J and Phillips, BL and Moritz, CC}, title = {The Potential for Rapid Evolution under Anthropogenic Climate Change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {19}, pages = {R996-R1007}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.08.028}, pmid = {31593684}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Desiccation ; Life History Traits ; Lizards/*physiology ; Phenotype ; *Thermotolerance ; }, abstract = {Understanding how natural populations will respond to rapid anthropogenic climate change is one of the greatest challenges for ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Much research has focussed on whether physiological traits can evolve quickly enough under rapidly increasing temperatures. While the simple Breeder's equation helps to understand how extreme temperatures and genetic variation might drive within-population evolution under climate change, it does not consider two key areas: how different forms of phenotypic plasticity interact and variation among populations. Plasticity can modify the exposure to climatic extremes and the strength of selection from those extremes, while differences among populations provide adaptive diversity not apparent within them. Here, we focus on terrestrial vertebrates and, with a case study on a tropical lizard, demonstrate the complex interplay between spatial, genetic and plastic contributions to variation in climate-relevant physiological traits. We identify several problems that need to be better understood: which traits are under selection in a changing climate; the different forms of plasticity relevant to population persistence and rapid evolution; plastic versus genetic contributions to geographic variation in climate-associated traits and whether plasticity can be harnessed to promote persistence of species. Given ongoing uncertainties around whether natural populations can evolve rapidly enough to persist, we advocate the use of field trials aimed at increasing rates of adaptation, especially in systems known to be strongly impacted by human-driven changes in climate.}, }
@article {pmid31593683, year = {2019}, author = {Clayton, S}, title = {Psychology and climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {19}, pages = {R992-R995}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.07.017}, pmid = {31593683}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Research and theory from psychology are increasingly being utilized to understand potential impacts of climate change and to promote positive responses. In this Primer, Clayton describes three main areas in which psychological research provides relevant insights, and provides suggestions for encouraging mitigation and adaptation behavior.}, }
@article {pmid31593661, year = {2019}, author = {He, Q and Silliman, BR}, title = {Climate Change, Human Impacts, and Coastal Ecosystems in the Anthropocene.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {19}, pages = {R1021-R1035}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.08.042}, pmid = {31593661}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Human Activities ; Oceans and Seas ; Sea Level Rise ; }, abstract = {Coastal zones, the world's most densely populated regions, are increasingly threatened by climate change stressors - rising and warming seas, intensifying storms and droughts, and acidifying oceans. Although coastal zones have been affected by local human activities for centuries, how local human impacts and climate change stressors may interact to jeopardize coastal ecosystems remains poorly understood. Here we provide a review on interactions between climate change and local human impacts (e.g., interactions between sea level rise and anthropogenic land subsidence, which are forcing Indonesia to relocate its capital city) in the coastal realm. We highlight how these interactions can impair and, at times, decimate a variety of coastal ecosystems, and examine how understanding and incorporating these interactions can reshape theory on climate change impacts and ecological resilience. We further discuss implications of interactions between climate change and local human impacts for coastal conservation and elucidate the context when and where local conservation is more likely to buffer the impacts of climate change, attempting to help reconcile the growing debate about whether to shift much of the investment in local conservation to global CO2 emission reductions. Our review underscores that an enhanced understanding of interactions between climate change and local human impacts is of profound importance to improving predictions of climate change impacts, devising climate-smart conservation actions, and helping enhance adaption of coastal societies to climate change in the Anthropocene.}, }
@article {pmid31592932, year = {2019}, author = {Kuehn, L and Balbus, J}, title = {Addressing the health, safety, welfare, and dignity of all humans: PAs and climate change.}, journal = {JAAPA : official journal of the American Academy of Physician Assistants}, volume = {32}, number = {11}, pages = {8-10}, doi = {10.1097/01.JAA.0000586340.96748.c3}, pmid = {31592932}, issn = {1547-1896}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Physician Assistants ; }, }
@article {pmid31591737, year = {2020}, author = {Bury, SM and Wenzel, M and Woodyatt, L}, title = {Against the odds: Hope as an antecedent of support for climate change action.}, journal = {The British journal of social psychology}, volume = {59}, number = {2}, pages = {289-310}, doi = {10.1111/bjso.12343}, pmid = {31591737}, issn = {2044-8309}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Group Processes ; *Hope ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Motivation ; *Optimism ; *Political Activism ; Probability ; }, abstract = {While individuals are often viewed as rational actors, engaging in action that promises success, sometimes they act despite low odds. We report two studies that investigate hope as a motivational resource during times when the odds of success seem low. We argue that when people are personally invested in the cause, their hope leaps with emerging possibility (low likelihood) of a positive outcome, but linearly aligns with likelihood for more probable outcomes (i.e., hope is a cubic function of likelihood). Crucially, hope then motivates support for collective action, in this case support for climate action, thus illuminating the possible antecedents for collective action against the odds. In Study 1, with a highly invested sample, hope mediated the relationship between cubic likelihood and support for climate change action. Study 2 extended these findings, showing that for individuals strongly invested in the outcome (but not for those less invested), hope arose with possibility but not probability of success, leading to greater support for climate change action. Hope's unique motivational role arises when the odds are low, when success is only possible rather than probable. These then represent the conditions that facilitate support for collective action against the odds.}, }
@article {pmid31586158, year = {2020}, author = {Jansson, JK and Hofmockel, KS}, title = {Soil microbiomes and climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {35-46}, doi = {10.1038/s41579-019-0265-7}, pmid = {31586158}, issn = {1740-1534}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Metagenome ; Microbiota/*radiation effects ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {The soil microbiome governs biogeochemical cycling of macronutrients, micronutrients and other elements vital for the growth of plants and animal life. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change on soil microbiomes and the ecosystem services they provide present a grand challenge and major opportunity as we direct our research efforts towards one of the most pressing problems facing our planet. In this Review, we explore the current state of knowledge about the impacts of climate change on soil microorganisms in different climate-sensitive soil ecosystems, as well as potential ways that soil microorganisms can be harnessed to help mitigate the negative consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31586060, year = {2019}, author = {Nisa, CF and Bélanger, JJ and Schumpe, BM and Faller, DG}, title = {Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials testing behavioural interventions to promote household action on climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4545}, pmid = {31586060}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Behavior Control/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Family Characteristics ; Humans ; Information Dissemination/methods ; Motivation ; Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic ; Recycling ; }, abstract = {No consensus exists regarding which are the most effective mechanisms to promote household action on climate change. We present a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials comprising 3,092,678 observations, which estimates the effects of behavioural interventions holding other factors constant. Here we show that behavioural interventions promote climate change mitigation to a very small degree while the intervention lasts (d = -0.093 95% CI -0.160, -0.055), with no evidence of sustained positive effects once the intervention ends. With the exception of recycling, most household mitigation behaviours show a low behavioural plasticity. The intervention with the highest average effect size is choice architecture (nudges) but this strategy has been tested in a limited number of behaviours. Our results do not imply behavioural interventions are less effective than alternative strategies such as financial incentives or regulations, nor exclude the possibility that behavioural interventions could have stronger effects when used in combination with alternative strategies.}, }
@article {pmid31585490, year = {2020}, author = {De Boeck, HJ and Bloor, JMG and Aerts, R and Bahn, M and Beier, C and Emmett, BA and Estiarte, M and Grünzweig, JM and Halbritter, AH and Holub, P and Jentsch, A and Klem, K and Kreyling, J and Kröel-Dulay, G and Larsen, KS and Milcu, A and Roy, J and Sigurdsson, BD and Smith, MD and Sternberg, M and Vandvik, V and Wohlgemuth, T and Nijs, I and Knapp, AK}, title = {Understanding ecosystems of the future will require more than realistic climate change experiments - A response to Korell et al.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {e6-e7}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14854}, pmid = {31585490}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid31585121, year = {2019}, author = {Rose Vineer, H and Baber, P and White, T and Morgan, ER}, title = {Reduced egg shedding in nematode-resistant ewes and projected epidemiological benefits under climate change.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology}, volume = {49}, number = {12}, pages = {901-910}, pmid = {31585121}, issn = {1879-0135}, support = {BB/M003949/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Disease Resistance ; England ; Feces/*parasitology ; Helminthiasis/immunology/parasitology ; Intestinal Diseases, Parasitic/immunology/parasitology/*veterinary ; Nematoda/*growth &amp; development/immunology ; Nematode Infections/immunology/parasitology/*veterinary ; Parasite Egg Count ; Selective Breeding ; Sheep/*parasitology ; Sheep Diseases/immunology/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {Global livestock production is facing serious new challenges, including climate-driven changes in parasite epidemiology, and anthelmintic resistance, driving a need for non-chemotherapeutic methods of parasite control. Selecting for genetic resistance to gastrointestinal nematode infection could reduce reliance on chemical intervention and mitigate increases in parasite challenge due to climate change. Ewes of the composite Exlana breed with a range of estimated breeding values (EBVs) based on nematode faecal egg counts (FECs) were monitored during the peri-parturient period on two farms in southwestern England. Ewes with low EBVs ("resistant") had lower FECs during the peri-parturient period than those with high EBVs ("susceptible"): the mean FEC was reduced by 23% and 34% on Farms 1 and 2, respectively, while the peak FEC was reduced by 30% and 37%, respectively. Neither EBV nor FEC were correlated with key performance indicators (estimated milk yield, measured indirectly using 8 week lamb weight, and ewe weight loss during lactation). Simulations predict that the reduced FECs of resistant ewes would result in a comparable reduction in infection pressure (arising from eggs shed by ewes) for their lambs. Furthermore, although the reduced FECs observed were modest, simulations predicted that selecting for nematode resistance in ewes could largely offset predicted future climate-driven increases in pasture infectivity arising from eggs contributed by these ewes. Selective breeding of the maternal line for nematode resistance therefore has potential epidemiological benefits by reducing pasture infectivity early in the grazing season and alleviating the need for anthelmintic treatment of ewes during the peri-parturient period, thus reducing selection pressure for anthelmintic resistance. These benefits are magnified under predicted future climate change. The maternal line warrants more attention in selective breeding programmes for nematode resistance.}, }
@article {pmid31584676, year = {2019}, author = {Castrillo, D and Rabuñal, E and Neira, N and Blanco, P}, title = {Oenological potential of non-Saccharomyces yeasts to mitigate effects of climate change in winemaking: impact on aroma and sensory profiles of Treixadura wines.}, journal = {FEMS yeast research}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsyr/foz065}, pmid = {31584676}, issn = {1567-1364}, mesh = {Acetates/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Esters/analysis ; Ethanol/analysis ; *Fermentation ; Glycerol/metabolism ; Humans ; Industrial Microbiology ; Odorants/analysis ; Saccharomyces cerevisiae ; Smell ; Taste ; Vitis/microbiology ; Volatile Organic Compounds/analysis ; Wine/*analysis/*microbiology ; Yeasts/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The effects of climate change on wine include high-alcohol content, low acidity and aroma imbalance. The potential of several non-Saccharomyces wine yeasts to mitigate these effects was evaluated by sequential fermentation of Treixadura grape must. Fermentations with only Saccharomyces cerevisiae ScXG3 and a spontaneous process were used as control assays. All yeast strains were obtained from the yeast collection of Estación de Viticultura e Enoloxía de Galicia (EVEGA), Galicia, Spain. Fermentation kinetics as well as yeast dynamics and implantation ability varied depending on inoculated yeasts. In addition, the results showed significant differences in the chemical composition of wine. Starmerella bacillaris 474 reduced the alcohol content (1.1% vol) and increased the total acidity (1.2 g L-1) and glycerol of wines. Fermentation with Lachancea thermotolerans Lt93 and Torulaspora delbrueckii Td315 also decreased the alcohol content, although to a lesser extent (0.3% and 0.7% vol, respectively); however, their effect on wine acidity was less significant. The wines also differed in their concentration of volatile compounds and sensory characteristics. Thus, wines made with Metschnikowia fructicola Mf278 and S. cerevisiae ScXG3 had higher content of esters, acetates and some acids than other wines, and were most appreciated by tasters due to their fruity character and overall impression.}, }
@article {pmid31584183, year = {2019}, author = {Bemmels, JB and Anderson, JT}, title = {Climate change shifts natural selection and the adaptive potential of the perennial forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {73}, number = {11}, pages = {2247-2262}, doi = {10.1111/evo.13854}, pmid = {31584183}, issn = {1558-5646}, support = {DEB-1553408//National Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Brassicaceae/*genetics/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Flowers/genetics ; Genetic Fitness ; Genetic Variation ; Germination/genetics ; *Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Heritable genetic variation is necessary for populations to evolve in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, antagonistic genetic correlations among traits may constrain the rate of adaptation, even if substantial genetic variation exists. We examine potential genetic responses to selection by comparing multivariate genetic variance-covariances of traits and fitness (multivariate Robertson-Price identities) across different environments in a reciprocal transplant experiment of the forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains. By transplanting populations into four common gardens arrayed along an elevational gradient, and exposing populations to control and snow removal treatments, we simulated future and current climates and snowmelt regimes. Genetic variation in flowering and germination phenology declined in plants moved downslope to warmer, drier sites, suggesting that these traits may have a limited ability to evolve under future climates. Simulated climate change via snow removal altered the strength of selection on flowering traits, but we found little evidence that genetic correlations among traits are likely to affect the rate of adaptation to climate change. Overall, our results suggest that climate change may alter the evolutionary potential of B. stricta, but reduced expression of genetic variation may be a larger impediment to adaptation than constraints imposed by antagonistic genetic correlations.}, }
@article {pmid31583730, year = {2020}, author = {Reis, J and Shortridge, J}, title = {Impact of Uncertainty Parameter Distribution on Robust Decision Making Outcomes for Climate Change Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {494-511}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13405}, pmid = {31583730}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {Deep uncertainty in future climatic and economic conditions complicates developing infrastructure designed to last several generations, such as water reservoirs. In response, analysts have developed multiple robust decision frameworks to help identify investments and policies that can withstand a wide range of future states. Although these frameworks are adept at supporting decisions where uncertainty cannot be represented probabilistically, analysts necessarily choose probabilistic bounds and distributions for uncertain variables to support exploratory modeling. The implications of these assumptions on the analytical outcomes of robust decision frameworks are rarely evaluated, and little guidance exists in terms of how to select uncertain variable distributions. Here, we evaluate the impact of these choices by following the robust decision-making procedure, using four different assumptions about the probabilistic distribution of exogenous uncertainties in future climatic and economic states. We take a water reservoir system in Ethiopia as our case study, and sample climatic parameters from uniform, normal, extended uniform, and extended normal distributions; we similarly sample two economic parameters. We compute regret and satisficing robustness decision criteria for two performance measures, agricultural water demand coverage and net present value, and perform scenario discovery on the most robust reservoir alternative. We find lower robustness scores resulting from extended parameter distributions and demonstrate that parameter distributions can impact vulnerabilities identified through scenario discovery. Our results suggest that exploratory modeling within robust decision frameworks should sample from extended, uniform parameters distributions.}, }
@article {pmid31579623, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, X and Huang, X}, title = {Human disturbance caused stronger influences on global vegetation change than climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7763}, pmid = {31579623}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Global vegetation distribution has been influenced by human disturbance and climate change. The past vegetation changes were studied in numerous studies while few studies had addressed the relative contributions of human disturbance and climate change on vegetation change. To separate the influences of human disturbance and climate change on the vegetation changes, we compared the existing vegetation which indicates the vegetation distribution under human influences with the potential vegetation which reflects the vegetation distribution without human influences. The results showed that climate-induced vegetation changes only occurred in a few grid cells from the period 1982-1996 to the period 1997-2013. Human-induced vegetation changes occurred worldwide, except in the polar and desert regions. About 3% of total vegetation distribution was transformed by human activities from the period 1982-1996 to the period 1997-2013. Human disturbances caused stronger damage to global vegetation change than climate change. Our results indicated that the regions where vegetation experienced both human disturbance and climate change are eco-fragile regions.}, }
@article {pmid31579402, year = {2019}, author = {Dannenberg, A and Zitzelsberger, S}, title = {Climate experts' views on geoengineering depend on their beliefs about climate change impacts.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {769-775}, pmid = {31579402}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {636746/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Climate change damages are expected to increase with global warming, which could be limited directly by solar geoengineering. Here we analyse the views of 723 negotiators and scientists involved in international climate policy who will have a significant influence on whether solar geoengineering will be deployed to counter climate change. We find that respondents who expect severe global climate change damages and who have little confidence in current mitigation efforts are more opposed to geoengineering than respondents who are less pessimistic about global damages and mitigation efforts. However, we also find that respondents are more supportive of geoengineering when they expect severe climate change damages in their home country than when they have more optimistic expectations for the home country. Thus, when respondents are more personally affected, their views are closer to what rational cost-benefit analyses predict.}, }
@article {pmid31579401, year = {2019}, author = {Varma, V and Bebber, DP}, title = {Climate change impacts on banana yields around the world.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {752-757}, pmid = {31579401}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {BB/N020847/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Nutritional diversity is a key element of food security[1-3]. However, research on the effects of climate change on food security has, thus far, focussed on the major food grains[4-8], while the response of other crops, particularly those that play an important role in the developing world, are poorly understood. Bananas are a staple food and a major export commodity for many tropical nations[9]. Here we show that for 27 countries - accounting for 86% of global dessert banana production - a changing climate since 1961 has increased yields by an average of 1.37 T.ha[-1]. Past gains have been largely ubiquitous across the countries assessed and African producers will continue to see yield increases into the future. However, global yield gains could be dampened or disappear in the future, reducing to 0.59 T.ha[-1]and 0.19 T.ha[-1]by 2050 under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, driven by declining yields amongst the largest producers and exporters. By quantifying climate-driven and technology-driven influences on yield, we also identify countries at risk from climate change and those capable of mitigating its effects, or capitalising on its benefits.}, }
@article {pmid31577835, year = {2019}, author = {Cisneros-Mata, MA and Mangin, T and Bone, J and Rodriguez, L and Smith, SL and Gaines, SD}, title = {Fisheries governance in the face of climate change: Assessment of policy reform implications for Mexican fisheries.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {e0222317}, pmid = {31577835}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Mexico ; Models, Theoretical ; *Policy ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is driving shifts in the abundance and distribution of marine fish and invertebrates and is having direct and indirect impacts on seafood catches and fishing communities, exacerbating the already negative effects of unsustainably high fishing pressure that exist for some stocks. Although the majority of fisheries in the world are managed at the national or local scale, most existing approaches to assessing climate impacts on fisheries have been developed on a global scale. It is often difficult to translate from the global to regional and local settings because of limited relevant data. To address the need for fisheries management entities to identify those fisheries with the greatest potential for climate change impacts, we present an approach for estimating expected climate change-driven impacts on the productivity and spatial range of fisheries at the regional scale in a data-poor context. We use a set of representative Mexican fisheries as test cases. To assess the implications of climate impacts, we compare biomass, harvest, and profit outcomes from a bioeconomic model under contrasting management policies and with and without climate change. Overall results show that climate change is estimated to negatively affect nearly every fishery in our study. However, the results indicate that overfishing is a greater threat than climate change for these fisheries, hence fixing current management challenges has a greater upside than the projected future costs of moderate levels of climate change. Additionally, this study provides meaningful first approximations of potential effects of both climate change and management reform in Mexican fisheries. Using the climate impact estimations and model outputs, we identify high priority stocks, fleets, and regions for policy reform in Mexico in the face of climate change. This approach can be applied in other data-poor circumstances to focus future research and policy reform efforts on stocks now subject to additional stress due to climate change. Considering their growing relevance as a critical source of protein and micronutrients to nourish our growing population, it is urgent for regions to develop sound fishery management policies in the short-term as they are the most important intervention to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on marine fisheries.}, }
@article {pmid31576035, year = {2019}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {World's oceans are losing power to stall climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {574}, number = {7776}, pages = {17-18}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02897-7}, pmid = {31576035}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Cyclonic Storms/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disasters/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Extreme Heat ; Fisheries/supply &amp; distribution ; Floods/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Warming/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Hot Temperature ; *Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/analysis/*chemistry ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid31575888, year = {2019}, author = {Gómez-Ruiz, EP and Lacher, TE}, title = {Climate change, range shifts, and the disruption of a pollinator-plant complex.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {14048}, pmid = {31575888}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Agave/*physiology ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Chiroptera/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Endangered Species ; Extinction, Biological ; Forecasting ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants ; *Pollination ; }, abstract = {Climate change has significant impacts on the distribution of species and alters ecological processes that result from species interactions. There is concern that such distribution shifts will affect animal-plant pollination networks. We modelled the potential future (2050 and 2070) distribution of an endangered migratory bat species (Leptonycteris nivalis) and the plants they pollinate (Agave spp) during their annual migration from central Mexico to the southern United States. Our models show that the overlap between the Agave and the endangered pollinating bat will be reduced by at least 75%. The reduction of suitable areas for Agave species will restrict the foraging resources available for the endangered bat, threatening the survival of its populations and the maintenance of their pollination service. The potential extinction of the bat L. nivalis will likely have negative effects on the sexual reproduction and genetic variability of Agave plants increasing their vulnerability to future environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid31575872, year = {2019}, author = {Serrano, O and Lovelock, CE and B Atwood, T and Macreadie, PI and Canto, R and Phinn, S and Arias-Ortiz, A and Bai, L and Baldock, J and Bedulli, C and Carnell, P and Connolly, RM and Donaldson, P and Esteban, A and Ewers Lewis, CJ and Eyre, BD and Hayes, MA and Horwitz, P and Hutley, LB and Kavazos, CRJ and Kelleway, JJ and Kendrick, GA and Kilminster, K and Lafratta, A and Lee, S and Lavery, PS and Maher, DT and Marbà, N and Masque, P and Mateo, MA and Mount, R and Ralph, PJ and Roelfsema, C and Rozaimi, M and Ruhon, R and Salinas, C and Samper-Villarreal, J and Sanderman, J and J Sanders, C and Santos, I and Sharples, C and Steven, ADL and Cannard, T and Trevathan-Tackett, SM and Duarte, CM}, title = {Australian vegetated coastal ecosystems as global hotspots for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4313}, pmid = {31575872}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Australia ; Carbon/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE; tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrasses) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here, we present organic carbon (C) storage in VCE across Australian climate regions and estimate potential annual CO2 emission benefits of VCE conservation and restoration. Australia contributes 5-11% of the C stored in VCE globally (70-185 Tg C in aboveground biomass, and 1,055-1,540 Tg C in the upper 1 m of soils). Potential CO2 emissions from current VCE losses are estimated at 2.1-3.1 Tg CO2-e yr[-1], increasing annual CO2 emissions from land use change in Australia by 12-21%. This assessment, the most comprehensive for any nation to-date, demonstrates the potential of conservation and restoration of VCE to underpin national policy development for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid31575015, year = {2019}, author = {Song, Y and Wang, C and Linderholm, HW and Tian, J and Shi, Y and Xu, J and Liu, Y}, title = {Agricultural Adaptation to Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {19}, pages = {}, pmid = {31575015}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Global Warming ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Tibet ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The Tibetan plateau is one of the most sensitive areas in China and has been significantly affected by global warming. From 1961 to 2017, the annual air temperature increased by 0.32 °C/decade over the Tibetan Plateau, which is the highest in the whole of China. Furthermore, this is a trend that is projected to continue by 0.30 °C/decade from 2018 to 2050 due to global warming using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). The increased temperature trend in recent decades has been highest in winter, which has been positive for the safe dormancy of winter wheat. In order to investigate agricultural adaptation to climate change in the Tibetan plateau, we used the World Food Studies (WOFOST) cropping systems model and weather data from the regional climate model RegCM4, to simulate winter wheat production in Guide county between 2018 and 2050. The simulated winter wheat potential yields amounted to 6698.3 kg/ha from 2018 to 2050, which showed the wheat yields would increase by 81%, if winter wheat was planted instead of spring wheat in the Tibetan Plateau with the correct amount of irrigation water. These results indicate that there are not only risks to crop yields from climate change, but also potential benefits. Global warming introduced the possibility to plant winter wheat instead of spring wheat over the Tibetan Plateau. These findings are very important for farmers and government agencies dealing with agricultural adaptation in a warmer climate.}, }
@article {pmid31570585, year = {2019}, author = {Riddell, EA and Iknayan, KJ and Wolf, BO and Sinervo, B and Beissinger, SR}, title = {Cooling requirements fueled the collapse of a desert bird community from climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {43}, pages = {21609-21615}, pmid = {31570585}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Basal Metabolism/physiology ; Birds/classification/*physiology ; Body Size/physiology ; Body Temperature/physiology ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; *Extinction, Biological ; United States ; Water/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens global biodiversity by increasing extinction risk, yet few studies have uncovered a physiological basis of climate-driven species declines. Maintaining a stable body temperature is a fundamental requirement for homeothermic animals, and water is a vital resource that facilitates thermoregulation through evaporative cooling, especially in hot environments. Here, we explore the potential for thermoregulatory costs to underlie the community collapse of birds in the Mojave Desert over the past century in response to climate change. The probability of persistence was lowest for species occupying the warmest and driest sites, which imposed the greatest cooling costs. We developed a general model of heat flux to evaluate whether water requirements for evaporative cooling contributed to species' declines by simulating thermoregulatory costs in the Mojave Desert for 50 bird species representing the range of observed declines. Bird species' declines were positively associated with climate-driven increases in water requirements for evaporative cooling and exacerbated by large body size, especially for species with animal-based diets. Species exhibiting reductions in body size across their range saved up to 14% in cooling costs and experienced less decline than species without size reductions, suggesting total cooling costs as a mechanism underlying Bergmann's rule. Reductions in body size, however, are unlikely to offset the 50 to 78% increase in cooling costs threatening desert birds from future climate change. As climate change spreads warm, dry conditions across the planet, water requirements are increasingly likely to drive population declines, providing a physiological basis for climate-driven extinctions.}, }
@article {pmid31570409, year = {2019}, author = {Iacobucci, G}, title = {Campaign group urges GMC to support doctors taking direct action against climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {l5785}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l5785}, pmid = {31570409}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31566199, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Fouad, WA and Vega, LF}, title = {Interfacial anomaly in low global warming potential refrigerant blends as predicted by molecular dynamics simulations.}, journal = {Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP}, volume = {21}, number = {39}, pages = {22092-22102}, doi = {10.1039/c9cp03231b}, pmid = {31566199}, issn = {1463-9084}, abstract = {Understanding the phase behavior and accurately predicting the thermophysical, interfacial and transport properties of low global warming, fourth generation refrigerants is essential for designing and evaluating refrigeration cycle performances and determining the optimal refrigerant or blends for a selected application. In this paper, we have used molecular dynamics simulations to study the vapour-liquid interface of fourth generation refrigerants including 2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234yf), trans-1,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (HFO-1234ze(E)), methylpropane (isobutane, HC-600a) and binary mixtures containing HFO-1234yf + HC-600a and HFO-1234ze(E) + HC-600a as new alternatives to third generation refrigerants. We provide predictions on their vapour-liquid equilibrium and interfacial properties (such as density profiles, interface thickness and surface tension) derived from the simulations. The results are compared to the experimental data, when available, and calculations made using the statistical associating fluid theory (SAFT). It is found that the mixtures of HFO-1234yf + HC-600a and HFO-1234ze(E) + HC-600a present azeotropic and aneotropic behavior. Molecular dynamics simulations corroborate the aneotrope already predicted by SAFT for these mixtures, highlighting the robustness of using molecular modeling techniques to investigate the performance of low GWP refrigerants and their blends as complementary tools to obtain the required data for the optimization of these systems. Insights into the molecular behavior at compositions before the aneotrope, at the aneotrope and after the aneotrope are provided based on radial distribution functions. It is shown that HC-600a and HFO molecules tend to stay closer to the same type of molecules and accumulate at different sides of the liquid region to act like pure components at the aneotropic composition.}, }
@article {pmid31565547, year = {2019}, author = {Duarte, M and Guerrero, PC and Arroyo, MTK and Bustamante, RO}, title = {Niches and climate-change refugia in hundreds of species from one of the most arid places on Earth.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7409}, pmid = {31565547}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. Several arid areas might expand in the future, but it is not clear if this change would be positive or negative for arid-adapted lineages. Here, we explore whether climatic niche properties are involved in the configuration of climate refugia and thus in future species trends.<br><br>METHODS: To estimate putative climate refugia and potential expansion areas, we used maximum entropy models and four climate-change models to generate current and future potential distributions of 142 plant species endemic to the Atacama and mediterranean Chilean ecosystems. We assessed the relationship between the similarity and breadth of thermal and precipitation niches with the size of climate refugia and areas of potential expansions.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: We found a positive relationship between breadth and similarity for thermal niche with the size of climate refugia, but only niche similarity of the thermal niche was positively related with the size of expansion areas. Although all lineages would reduce their distributions in the future, few species are predicted to be at risk of extinction in their current distribution, and all of them presented potential expansion areas.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Species with a broad niche and niche dissimilarity will have larger refugia, and species with niche dissimilarity will have larger expansion areas. In addition, our prediction for arid lineages shows that these species will be moderately affected by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31565394, year = {2019}, author = {He, X and Liang, J and Zeng, G and Yuan, Y and Li, X}, title = {The Effects of Interaction between Climate Change and Land-Use/Cover Change on Biodiversity-Related Ecosystem Services.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {1800095}, pmid = {31565394}, issn = {2056-6646}, abstract = {Climate change and land-use/cover change (LUCC) are two major types of global environmental change. They are increasingly challenging the main objectives of ecosystem management, which are to provide ecosystem services sustainably to society and maintain biodiversity. However, a comprehensive understanding of how climate-land-use change affects these primary goals of ecosystem management is still lacking. Here, a global literature review on the impacts of climate change and LUCC on ecosystem services related to biodiversity is presented. In this review, possible ecological responses at species, community, and ecosystem levels, and the effects of interaction mechanisms between climate change and LUCC on biodiversity-related ecosystem services are identified. The results show possible effects on species facing climate change challenges through affecting distribution/range shifts, interspecific relations, richness, and abundance, and the impacts on biodiversity through increasing extinction rates, nutrient deposition, and habitat fragmentation under LUCC. Climate change may hinder the ability of species to deal with LUCC, and in turn LUCC could reduce resilience to climate change. Understanding of these interactions is necessary to address the increasing pressure on sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services under different climate and land-use scenarios in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31564207, year = {2020}, author = {Yang, X and Chen, L and Ho, SS}, title = {Does media exposure relate to the illusion of knowing in the public understanding of climate change?.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {94-111}, doi = {10.1177/0963662519877743}, pmid = {31564207}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {By acknowledging that people are cognitive misers, this study proposes that people may rely on the illusion of knowing as cognitive devices for attitudinal or behavioral change, in addition to factual knowledge. Accordingly, this study shifted the focus of inquiry from assessing media effects in increasing factual knowledge to assessing how media consumption relates to the illusion of knowing. Using a nationally door-to-door survey in Singapore (N = 705), the results revealed that individuals' attention to media messages about climate change and elaboration of these messages were positively related to the illusion of knowing. Furthermore, elaboration had moderating effects on the relationship between media attention and the illusion of knowing. These findings suggest that media consumption of climate change messages could drive the illusion of knowing, which is speculated to account for pro-environmental behaviors in addressing climate change. Theoretical and practical implications were discussed.}, }
@article {pmid31563775, year = {2019}, author = {Tao, Y and Zhang, Y and Cao, J and Wu, Z and Yao, S and Xue, B}, title = {Climate change has weakened the ability of Chinese lakes to bury polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {255}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {113288}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.113288}, pmid = {31563775}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Eutrophication ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Humans ; Lakes/chemistry ; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/*analysis ; Temperature ; Water ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Burial in sediments is a crucial way to reduce mobilization and risks of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs), but ability of sediments to bury HOCs may be altered if the environment is changed. Whether the ability of sediments to bury HOCs has been affected by climate change remains largely unclear. We excluded the impacts of anthropogenic emissions and eutrophication from that of climate change, and for the first time found that not only the rising surface air temperature but also the declining wind speed and the reducing days with precipitation had weakened the ability of Chinese lakes to bury 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) by 69.2% ± 9.4%-85.7% ± 3.6% from 1951 to 2017. The relative contributions of the climatic variables to the reduced burial ability depended on the properties of the PAHs, and lakes. Burial ability of the PAHs responded differently to climate change, and was correlated to their volatilization and aqueous solubility, and lake area, catchment area/lake area ratio, and water depth. Our study suggests that not only the rising surface air temperature but also the declining wind speed and the reducing days with precipitation can undermine global efforts to reduce environmental and human exposure to PAHs.}, }
@article {pmid31563602, year = {2019}, author = {Paul, A and Deka, J and Gujre, N and Rangan, L and Mitra, S}, title = {Does nature of livelihood regulate the urban community's vulnerability to climate change? Guwahati city, a case study from North East India.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {251}, number = {}, pages = {109591}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109591}, pmid = {31563602}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Cities ; *City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Humans ; India ; }, abstract = {There is dearth of studies on climate change based vulnerabilities of the urban people. It has been a matter of widespread debate whether nature of livelihood has any role to play in regulating the vulnerabilities of an individual. To find an answer, in a first ever attempt, this study tested three different approaches viz. Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) models and Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) to estimate climate change vulnerability of urban communities from various livelihoods in Guwahati city, Assam, India. Guwahati is considered to be the gateway to the seven North Eastern states of India and therefore strategically very important for this region. A structured survey was conducted involving 200 stakeholders from various livelihood sectors viz. construction workers, perishable item sellers, farmers, taxi/auto driver/rickshaw puller/coolie, tea stall/fast food seller, gas cylinder deliverymen, street vendors/salespersons, traffic police/police, doctors and boatmen. Data was systematically aggregated and examined using the above-mentioned composite indices. The differential vulnerabilities were compared and results suggested that the farmers were the most vulnerable community by virtue of their high sensitivity towards health, economic losses, exacerbated by their poor adaptive capacity toward unpredictable climatic variations. Doctors were the least vulnerable owing to their higher levels of awareness and adaptive capacity. These results reiterated the importance of awareness and access to resources in regulating vulnerability. The vulnerability scores also revealed that LVI and Model II (M II) of LVI IPCC approaches were the two most suitable indices and could be used for comparative vulnerability analysis. These pragmatic approaches can be used to assess the community vulnerabilities and could stimulate robust Climate Smart Urban Planning (CSUP).}, }
@article {pmid31560703, year = {2019}, author = {Anríquez, G and Toledo, G}, title = {De-climatizing food security: Lessons from climate change micro-simulations in Peru.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {9}, pages = {e0222483}, pmid = {31560703}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Eating ; *Food Supply ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Peru ; Rural Population/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Urban Population/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {This paper brings advances in weather data collection and modeling, and developments in socioeconomic climate microsimulations to bear on the analysis of the implications of climate change (CC) in the design of public policies to combat food insecurity. It uses new downscaled predictions of future climate in 2050, derived from three Earth System Models calibrated with a new historical weather station dataset for Peru. This climate data is used in a three-stage socioeconomic microsimulation model that includes climate risk, and deals with the endogeneity of incomes and simultaneity of expected food consumption and its variability. We estimate the impact of CC on agricultural yields, and find results consistent and fully bounded within what the global simulations literature has found, with yields falling up to 13% in some regions. However, we show that these drops (and increases) in yields translate to much smaller changes in food consumption, and also surprisingly, to very minor impacts on vulnerability to food insecurity. The document explores what explains this surprising result, showing that in addition to characteristics that are specific to Peru, there are household and market mediating mechanisms that are available in all countries, which explain how changes in yields, and corresponding farm incomes have a reduced impact in vulnerability to food insecurity. Finally, in light of these findings, we explore which policies might have greater impact in reducing food insecurity in contexts of hunger prevalence.}, }
@article {pmid31560091, year = {2020}, author = {Vu, TT and Tran, DV and Tran, HTP and Nguyen, MD and Do, TA and Ta, NT and Cao, HT and Pham, NT and Phan, DV}, title = {An assessment of the impact of climate change on the distribution of the grey-shanked douc Pygathrix cinerea using an ecological niche model.}, journal = {Primates; journal of primatology}, volume = {61}, number = {2}, pages = {267-275}, pmid = {31560091}, issn = {1610-7365}, support = {BDKH.38/16-20//Vietnam National Science and Technology Program to respond to climate change and environmental and resource management in the period 2016-2020/ ; }, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; *Presbytini ; Vietnam ; }, abstract = {Climate change can have many negative impacts on wildlife species, and species with narrow distributions are more likely to be significantly affected. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling for species (MaxEnt software) as well as species occurrence data and climate variables to assess the impacts of climate change on the distribution of the grey-shanked douc-an endemic and rare primate species of Vietnam. We used climate data at the current time and two future times (2050 and 2070). Climate data were generated for two climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, together with three climate models ACCESS1-0, GFDL-CM3, and MPI-ESM-LR. We predicted that the distribution of the grey-shanked douc would be sharply reduced by the effects of climate change. The species' suitable distribution range in the future tended to shift toward the center of their current range and to higher mountainous areas. A larger suitable area, in particular highly suitable areas to the north and west of its current potential distribution range, would become less suitable or even unsuitable in 2050 and 2070. Kon Cha Rang Nature Reserve and Kon Ka Kinh National Park should be given priority in conservation of the grey-shanked douc because they now support important populations of the species and are in the highly suitable area remaining for the species in the future. The establishment of a new protected area for grey-shanked douc conservation should be considered in Kon Plong District, Kom Tum Province, which will be the center of the species distribution range.}, }
@article {pmid31559421, year = {2020}, author = {Florez-Sarasa, I and Fernie, AR and Gupta, KJ}, title = {Does the alternative respiratory pathway offer protection against the adverse effects resulting from climate change?.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {71}, number = {2}, pages = {465-469}, pmid = {31559421}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; Climate Change ; Mitochondria/*enzymology ; Mitochondrial Proteins/*metabolism ; Nitrogen Oxides/*metabolism ; Oxidoreductases/*metabolism ; Ozone/*metabolism ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plant Proteins/*metabolism ; Plants/*enzymology ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Elevated greenhouse gases (GHGs) induce adverse conditions directly and indirectly, causing decreases in plant productivity. To deal with climate change effects, plants have developed various mechanisms including the fine-tuning of metabolism. Plant respiratory metabolism is highly flexible due to the presence of various alternative pathways. The mitochondrial alternative oxidase (AOX) respiratory pathway is responsive to these changes, and several lines of evidence suggest it plays a role in reducing excesses of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and reactive nitrogen species (RNS) while providing metabolic flexibility under stress. Here we discuss the importance of the AOX pathway in dealing with elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ozone (O3), and the main abiotic stresses induced by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31559006, year = {2019}, author = {Smull, DM and Pendleton, N and Kleinhesselink, AR and Adler, PB}, title = {Climate change, snow mold and the Bromus tectorum invasion: mixed evidence for release from cold weather pathogens.}, journal = {AoB PLANTS}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {plz043}, pmid = {31559006}, issn = {2041-2851}, abstract = {Climate change is reducing the depth and duration of winter snowpack, leading to dramatic changes in the soil environment with potentially important ecological consequences. Previous experiments in the Intermountain West of North America indicated that loss of snowpack increases survival and population growth rates of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum; however, the underlying mechanism is unknown. We hypothesized that reduced snowpack might promote B. tectorum population growth by decreasing damage from snow molds, a group of subnivean fungal pathogens. To test this hypothesis, we conducted greenhouse and field experiments to investigate the interaction between early snowmelt and either fungicide addition or snow mold infection of B. tectorum. The greenhouse experiment confirmed that the snow mold Microdochium nivale can cause mortality of B. tectorum seedlings. In the field experiment, early snowmelt and fungicide application both increased B. tectorum survival, but their effects did not interact, and snow mold inoculation had no effect on survival. We did find interactive effects of snowmelt and fungal treatments on B. tectorum seed production: with ambient snowpack, M. nivale inoculation reduced seed production and fungicide increased it, whereas in the early snowmelt treatment seed production was high regardless of fungal treatment. However, treatment effects on seed production did not translate directly to overall population growth, which did not respond to the snow melt by fungal treatment interaction. Based on our mixed results, the hypothesis that reduced snowpack may increase B. tectorum fitness by limiting the effects of plant pathogens deserves further investigation.}, }
@article {pmid31557891, year = {2019}, author = {Jin, Y and Xu, J and He, H and Li, MH and Tao, Y and Zhang, Y and Hu, R and Gao, X and Bai, Y and Wang, H and Han, Y}, title = {The Changbai Alpine Shrub Tundra Will Be Replaced by Herbaceous Tundra under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {31557891}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {No. 41571078 and 41171072//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, abstract = {Significant replacement of shrub species by herbaceous species has been observed in the Changbai alpine tundra zone, China, since the 1990s. This study used plot surveys to analyze variations in the spatial distribution of dominant plants and to ascertain the changing mechanisms of dominant species in the alpine tundra zone. We found that the two previously dominant shrubs, Rhododendron chrysanthum and Vaccinium uliginosum, differed markedly in their distribution characteristics. The former had the highest abundance and the lowest coefficient of variation, skewness, and kurtosis, and the latter showed the opposite results, while the six herb species invaded had intermediate values. R. chrysanthum still had a relatively uniform distribution, while the herbaceous species and V. uliginosum had a patch distribution deviating from the normal distribution in the tundra zone. Micro-topography and slope grade had stronger effects on the spatial distribution of the eight plant species than elevation. Herbs tended to easily replace the shrubs on a semi-sunny slope aspect, steep slope, and depression. Overall, the dominance of dwarf shrubs declined, while the herbaceous species have encroached and expanded on the alpine tundra zone and have become co-dominant plant species. Our results suggest that various micro-topographic factors associated with variations in climatic and edaphic conditions determine the spatial distribution of plants in the alpine tundra zone. Future climate warming may cause decreased snow thickness, increased growing season length, and drought stress, which may further promote replacement of the shrubs by herbs, which shows retrogressive vegetation successions in the Changbai alpine tundra zone. Further studies need to focus on the physio-ecological mechanisms underlying the vegetation change and species replacement in the alpine tundra area under global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31557627, year = {2019}, author = {Richard, G and Le Trionnaire, G and Danchin, E and Sentis, A}, title = {Epigenetics and insect polyphenism: mechanisms and climate change impacts.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {138-145}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.06.013}, pmid = {31557627}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Epigenesis, Genetic ; Insecta/*genetics/physiology ; }, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity is a ubiquitous process found in all living organisms. Polyphenism is an extreme case of phenotypic plasticity which shares a common scheme in insects such as honeybees, locusts or aphids: an initial perception of environmental stimuli, a neuroendocrine transmission of these signals to the target tissues, the activation of epigenetic mechanisms allowing the setup of alternative transcriptional programs responsible for the establishment of discrete phenotypes. Climate change can modulate the environmental stimuli triggering polyphenisms, and/or some epigenetics marks, thus modifying on the short and long terms the discrete phenotype proportions within populations. This might result in critical ecosystem changes.}, }
@article {pmid31555727, year = {2019}, author = {Bevacqua, E and Maraun, D and Vousdoukas, MI and Voukouvalas, E and Vrac, M and Mentaschi, L and Widmann, M}, title = {Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {5}, number = {9}, pages = {eaaw5531}, pmid = {31555727}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {In low-lying coastal areas, the co-occurrence of high sea level and precipitation resulting in large runoff may cause compound flooding (CF). When the two hazards interact, the resulting impact can be worse than when they occur individually. Both storm surges and heavy precipitation, as well as their interplay, are likely to change in response to global warming. Despite the CF relevance, a comprehensive hazard assessment beyond individual locations is missing, and no studies have examined CF in the future. Analyzing co-occurring high sea level and heavy precipitation in Europe, we show that the Mediterranean coasts are experiencing the highest CF probability in the present. However, future climate projections show emerging high CF probability along parts of the northern European coast. In several European regions, CF should be considered as a potential hazard aggravating the risk caused by mean sea level rise in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31554911, year = {2020}, author = {Malik, AA and Martiny, JBH and Brodie, EL and Martiny, AC and Treseder, KK and Allison, SD}, title = {Defining trait-based microbial strategies with consequences for soil carbon cycling under climate change.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1-9}, pmid = {31554911}, issn = {1751-7370}, }
@article {pmid31554538, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, K and Breitner, S and Wolf, K and Rai, M and Meisinger, C and Heier, M and Kuch, B and Peters, A and Schneider, A}, title = {Projection of Temperature-Related Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany: Moving on From the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.}, journal = {Deutsches Arzteblatt international}, volume = {116}, number = {31-32}, pages = {521-527}, pmid = {31554538}, issn = {1866-0452}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Germany/epidemiology ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; Goals ; Humans ; Myocardial Infarction/*epidemiology ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Substantial efforts are required to limit global warming to under 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as the target (Paris Agreement goal). We set out to project future temperature-related myocardial infarction (MI) events in Augsburg, Germany, at increases in warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C.<br><br>METHODS: Using daily time series of MI cases and temperature projections under two climate scenarios, we projected changes in temperature-related MIs at different increases in warming, assuming no changes in population structure or level of adaptation.<br><br>RESULTS: In a low-emission scenario that limits warming to below 2 &#xb0;C throughout the 21st century, temperature-related MI cases will decrease slightly by -6 (confidence interval -60; 50) per decade at 1.5 &#xb0;C of warming. In a high-emission scenario going beyond the Paris Agreement goals, temperature-related MI cases will increase by 18 (-64; 117) and 63 (-83; 257) per decade with warming of 2 &#xb0;C and 3 &#xb0;C, respectively.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The future burden of temperature-related MI events in Augsburg at 2 &#xb0;C and 3 &#xb0;C of warming will be greater than at 1.5 &#xb0;C. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 &#xb0;C is therefore essential to avoid additional MI events due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31554537, year = {2019}, author = {Nowak, D}, title = {Global Warming-the German Picture.}, journal = {Deutsches Arzteblatt international}, volume = {116}, number = {31-32}, pages = {519-520}, pmid = {31554537}, issn = {1866-0452}, mesh = {Germany ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid31554024, year = {2020}, author = {Li, L and Zheng, Z and Wang, W and Biederman, JA and Xu, X and Ran, Q and Qian, R and Xu, C and Zhang, B and Wang, F and Zhou, S and Cui, L and Che, R and Hao, Y and Cui, X and Xu, Z and Wang, Y}, title = {Terrestrial N2 O emissions and related functional genes under climate change: A global meta-analysis.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {931-943}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14847}, pmid = {31554024}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {XDA19030202//CAS Strategic Priority Research Programme (A)/International ; XDA20050103//CAS Strategic Priority Research Programme (A)/International ; 31761123001//International Cooperation and Exchange of National Natural Science Foundation of China/International ; 31761143018//International Cooperation and Exchange of National Natural Science Foundation of China/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Nitrous Oxide ; Soil ; Tundra ; }, abstract = {Nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions from soil contribute to global warming and are in turn substantially affected by climate change. However, climate change impacts on N2 O production across terrestrial ecosystems remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesized 46 published studies of N2 O fluxes and relevant soil functional genes (SFGs, that is, archaeal amoA, bacterial amoA, nosZ, narG, nirK and nirS) to assess their responses to increased temperature, increased or decreased precipitation amounts, and prolonged drought (no change in total precipitation but increase in precipitation intervals) in terrestrial ecosystem (i.e. grasslands, forests, shrublands, tundra and croplands). Across the data set, temperature increased N2 O emissions by 33%. However, the effects were highly variable across biomes, with strongest temperature responses in shrublands, variable responses in forests and negative responses in tundra. The warming methods employed also influenced the effects of temperature on N2 O emissions (most effectively induced by open-top chambers). Whole-day or whole-year warming treatment significantly enhanced N2 O emissions, but daytime, nighttime or short-season warming did not have significant effects. Regardless of biome, treatment method and season, increased precipitation promoted N2 O emission by an average of 55%, while decreased precipitation suppressed N2 O emission by 31%, predominantly driven by changes in soil moisture. The effect size of precipitation changes on nirS and nosZ showed a U-shape relationship with soil moisture; further insight into biotic mechanisms underlying N2 O emission response to climate change remain limited by data availability, underlying a need for studies that report SFG. Our findings indicate that climate change substantially affects N2 O emission and highlights the urgent need to incorporate this strong feedback into most climate models for convincing projection of future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31553458, year = {2019}, author = {Sperlich, D and Chang, CT and Peñuelas, J and Sabaté, S}, title = {Responses of photosynthesis and component processes to drought and temperature stress: are Mediterranean trees fit for climate change?.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {39}, number = {11}, pages = {1783-1805}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpz089}, pmid = {31553458}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves ; *Quercus ; Temperature ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Global warming is raising concerns about the acclimatory capacity of trees and forests, especially in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. The sensitivity of photosynthesis to temperature is a key uncertainty for projecting the magnitude of terrestrial feedbacks on future climate change. While boreal, temperate and tropical species have been comparatively well investigated, our study provides the first comprehensive overview of the seasonal acclimatory responses of photosynthesis and its component processes to temperature in four Mediterranean climax species under natural conditions. We quantified seasonal changes in the responses of net photosynthesis (Anet), stomatal conductance (gs), mesophyllic conductance (gm) and electron-transport rate (Jcf), and investigated their sensitivity to drought and temperature stress in sunlit and shaded leaves of four Mediterranean tree species (Quercus ilex L., Pinus halepensis Mill., Arbutus unedo L. and Quercus pubescens Willd.). Sunlit leaves, but not shaded leaves, showed a pronounced seasonality in the temperature responses of Anet, gs, gm and Jcf. All four species and variables showed a remarkably dynamic and consistent acclimation of the thermal optimum (Topt), reaching peaks in summer ~29-32 °C. Changes in the shape of the response curves were, however, highly species-specific. Under severe drought, Topt of all variables were on average 22-29% lower. This was accompanied by narrower response curves above all in P. halepensis, reducing the optimal range for photosynthesis to the cooler morning or evening periods. Wider temperature-response curves and less strict stomatal control under severe drought were accompanied by wilting and drought-induced leaf shedding in Q. ilex and Q. pubescens and by additional branch dieback in A. unedo. Mild winter conditions led to a high Topt (~19.1-22.2 °C), benefitting the evergreen species, especially P. halepensis. Seasonal acclimation of Anet was explained better by gs and gm being less pronounced in Jcf. Drought was thus a key factor, in addition to growth temperature, to explain seasonal acclimation of photosynthesis. Severe drought periods may exceed more frequently the high acclimatory capacity of Mediterranean trees to high ambient temperatures, which could lead to reduced growth, increased leaf shedding and, for some species such as A. unedo, increased mortality risk.}, }
@article {pmid31551548, year = {2019}, author = {Schiermeier, Q and Atkinson, K and Mega, ER and Padma, TV and Stoye, E and Tollefson, J and Witze, A}, title = {Scientists worldwide join strikes for climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {573}, number = {7775}, pages = {472-473}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02791-2}, pmid = {31551548}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Laboratory Personnel ; *Strikes, Employee ; Students ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid31551200, year = {2019}, author = {Londoño Pineda, AA and Vélez Rojas Oscar, OA and Jonathan, MP and Sujitha, SB}, title = {Evaluation of climate change adaptation in the energy generation sector in Colombia via a composite index - A monitoring tool for government policies and actions.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {250}, number = {}, pages = {109453}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109453}, pmid = {31551200}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Colombia ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Government ; }, abstract = {The aim of the article is to evaluate the national adaptation to climate change in the energy generation sector in Colombia via a composite index. To build an index, a framework by stages is used, which includes the definition of the main concepts that supports the measurements; the selection of the relevant indicators using a subject matter experts; standardization of the indicators using a mathematic formula regarding the relationship between the variables that represent the adaptation to climate change; and establishment of the weights using an analytic hierarchical process of paired comparisons and the aggregation of indicators to obtain the following three sub-indexes: reactive adaptation, wherein the replacement of hydraulic energy by thermal energy is evaluated; anticipatory adaptation, which measures the gap between the generation of total energy and the demand of the national energy system; and planned adaptation, which considers indicators such as the sectoral plan for adapting to climate change, the law of alternative energies, and the generation of alternative energies as a percentage of generation capacity. By adding these sub-indices, the climate change adaptation index (CCAI) is obtained. The results of CCAI show that progress was made from a reactive adaptation scenario in which the system vulnerability was high to an anticipatory adaptation scenario wherein the vulnerability was average, indicating that the foundations for this sector to build a planned adaptation are currently being laid.}, }
@article {pmid31548862, year = {2019}, author = {Sang, Z and Sebastian-Azcona, J and Hamann, A and Menzel, A and Hacke, U}, title = {Adaptive limitations of white spruce populations to drought imply vulnerability to climate change in its western range.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {1850-1860}, pmid = {31548862}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {A cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy for the forestry sector is to move seed sources to more northern and higher elevation planting sites as part of ongoing reforestation programs. This is meant to match locally adapted populations with anticipated environments, but adaptive traits do not always show population differences suitable to mitigate climate change impacts. For white spruce, drought tolerance is a critical adaptive trait to prevent mortality and productivity losses. Here, we use a 40-year-old provenance experiment that has been exposed to severe drought periods in 1999 and 2002 to retrospectively investigate drought response and the adaptive capacity of white spruce populations across their boreal range. Relying on dendrochronological analysis under experimentally controlled environments, we evaluate population differences in resistance, resilience, and recovery to these extreme events. Results showed evidence for population differentiation in resistance and recovery parameters, but provenances conformed to approximately the same growth rates under drought conditions and had similar resilience metrics. The lack of populations with better growth rates under drought conditions is contrary to expectations for a wide-ranging species with distinct regional climates. Populations from the wettest environments in the northeastern boreal were surprisingly drought-tolerant, suggesting that these populations would readily resist water deficits projected for the 2080s, and supporting the view that northeastern Canada will provide a refugium for boreal species under climate change. The findings also suggest that white spruce is sensitive to growth reductions under climate change in the western boreal. The study highlights that population differentiation in adaptive capacity is species- and trait-specific, and we provide a counterexample for drought tolerance traits, where assisted migration prescriptions may be ineffective to mitigate climate change impacts. For resource managers and policy makers, we provide maps where planning for widespread declines of boreal white spruce forests may be unavoidable.}, }
@article {pmid31548604, year = {2019}, author = {Schlichtholz, P}, title = {Subsurface ocean flywheel of coupled climate variability in the Barents Sea hotspot of global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {13692}, pmid = {31548604}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Accelerated shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice cover is the main reason for the recent Arctic amplification of global warming. There is growing evidence that the ocean is involved in this phenomenon, but to what extent remains unknown. Here, a unique dataset of hydrographic profiles is used to infer the regional pattern of recent subsurface ocean warming and construct a skillful predictor for surface climate variability in the Barents Sea region - a hotspot of the recent climate change. It is shown that, in the era of satellite observations (1981-2018), summertime temperature anomalies of Atlantic water heading for the Arctic Ocean explain more than 80% of the variance of the leading mode of variability in the following winter sea ice concentration over the entire Northern Hemisphere, with main centers of action just in the Barents Sea region. Results from empirical forecast experiments demonstrate that predictability of the wintertime sea ice cover in the Barents Sea from subsurface ocean heat anomalies might have increased since the Arctic climate shift of the mid-2000s. In contrast, the corresponding predictability of the sea ice cover in the nearby Greenland Sea has been lost.}, }
@article {pmid31548271, year = {2019}, author = {Salas, RN and Jha, AK}, title = {Climate change threatens the achievement of effective universal healthcare.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {l5302}, pmid = {31548271}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Accidents, Occupational ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/therapy ; Cost of Illness ; Delivery of Health Care ; Developed Countries/economics ; Developing Countries/economics ; Emigration and Immigration ; *Global Health/economics ; Health Workforce ; Humans ; Poverty ; *Universal Health Insurance/economics ; }, abstract = {Minimising the health harms of climate change and optimising universal health coverage will only be achieved through an integrated agenda and aligned solutions, say Renee Salas and Ashish Jha}, }
@article {pmid31548093, year = {2019}, author = {Lauchlan, SS and Burckard, G and Cassey, P and Nagelkerken, I}, title = {Climate change erodes competitive hierarchies among native, alien and range-extending crabs.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {151}, number = {}, pages = {104777}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.104777}, pmid = {31548093}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Brachyura ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Introduced Species ; Population Dynamics ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Global warming and ocean acidification alter a wide range of animal behaviours, yet the effect on resource competition among species is poorly understood. We tested whether the combination of moderate levels of ocean acidification and warming altered the feeding success of co-occurring native, alien, and range-extending crab species, and how these changes affected their hierarchical dominance. Under contemporary conditions the range-extending species spent more time feeding, than the alien and the native species. Under conditions simulating future climate there was no difference in the proportion of time spent feeding among the three species. These behavioural changes translated to alterations in their dominance hierarchy (based on feeding success) with the most dominant species under present day conditions becoming less dominant under future conditions, and vice versa for the least dominant species. While empirical studies have predicted either reversal or strengthening of hierarchical dominance in animal species, we suggest that even moderate increases in ocean temperature and acidification can drive a homogenisation in behavioural competitiveness, eroding dominance differences among species that are linked to fitness-related traits in nature and hence important for their population persistence.}, }
@article {pmid31542889, year = {2019}, author = {Bartosova, A and Capell, R and Olesen, JE and Jabloun, M and Refsgaard, JC and Donnelly, C and Hyytiäinen, K and Pihlainen, S and Zandersen, M and Arheimer, B}, title = {Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {48}, number = {11}, pages = {1325-1336}, pmid = {31542889}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Baltic States ; *Climate Change ; Eutrophication ; *Nutrients ; Oceans and Seas ; Phosphorus ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.}, }
@article {pmid31539955, year = {2019}, author = {Rodriguez-Dominguez, A and Connell, SD and Leung, JYS and Nagelkerken, I}, title = {Adaptive responses of fishes to climate change: Feedback between physiology and behaviour.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {692}, number = {}, pages = {1242-1249}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.226}, pmid = {31539955}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fishes/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The adaptive capacity of individuals, from their cells to their overall performance, allows species to adjust to environmental change. We assess a hierarchy of responses (from cells to organismal growth and behaviour) to understand the flexibility of adaptive responses to future ocean conditions (warming and acidification) in two species of fish with short lifespans by conducting a long-term mesocosm/aquarium experiment. Fishes were exposed to elevated CO2 and temperature in a factorial design for a five-month period. We found a feedback mechanism between cellular defence and behavioural responses. In circumstances where their antioxidant defence mechanism was activated (i.e. warming or acidification), increased feeding rates prevented oxidative damage (i.e. during warming Sp. 1). However, when feeding rates failed to increase to provide additional energy needed for antioxidant defence, oxidative damage could not be prevented (warming + acidification Sp. 1). In contrast, when the activation of antioxidant defence was not required, energy intake from increased feeding was redirected to increased fish growth (acidification Sp. 2, warming + acidification Sp. 2), whilst no gain in growth rate was observed where feeding remained unchanged (acidification Sp. 1 or warming Sp. 2). This adaptive strategy seems to rely on the inherent behavioural response of fishes to their environment and such adjustability shows the kind of responses that organisms may express to prevail in future ocean climate. Indeed, assessing the link between responses from cellular to organismal levels, using a diversity of fitness indicators and behaviour, provides a fundamental understanding of how organisms as a whole may adjust to prevail in a future world.}, }
@article {pmid31539953, year = {2019}, author = {Bahri, H and Annabi, M and Cheikh M'Hamed, H and Frija, A}, title = {Assessing the long-term impact of conservation agriculture on wheat-based systems in Tunisia using APSIM simulations under a climate change context.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {692}, number = {}, pages = {1223-1233}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.307}, pmid = {31539953}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; Tunisia ; }, abstract = {Several circulation models are forecasting climate changes in the Mediterranean region. Accordingly, it is expected that water scarcity in the region will be higher with drastic shifts of hydrological and erosive watershed responses. In Tunisia, wheat yields have been variable over the years and are lower than the potential yields. In response, the adoption of conservation agriculture (CA), introduced into Tunisia in 1999 to help adaptation to climate change, has resulted in a substantial reduction in agricultural productivity. CA areas increased from 52 ha in 1999 to 14,000 ha in 2015. Using a modelling approach, the present paper evaluates the potential of CA to adapt wheat-based-systems to climate change in Tunisia. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was used to predict the effect of tillage (conventional tillage [CT] vs. zero-tillage [ZT] and soil residue retention [ZT-RR]) on wheat productivity and soil fertility. Two contrasting locations in Tunisia were studied; one semi-arid (Kef) and one sub-humid (Bizerte). Results showed that the sustainable production of durum wheat under climate change conditions in Tunisia is possible through the adoption of CA practices (ZT and ZT-RR) in both sub-humid and semi-arid areas. In fact, mulching (residue retention) is more effective than CT (under semi-arid and sub-humid conditions) in enhancing wheat yield (15%), water use efficiency (18% and 13%) and soil organic carbon accumulation (0.13 t ha[-1] year[-1] and 0.18 t ha[-1] year[-1]). It is also more effective for soil resilience - preventing water erosion (1.7 t ha[-1] year[-1] and 4.6 t ha[-1] year[-1] of soil loss). The present study allowed identification of 260,000 ha as priority areas for CA adoption; this represent one-third of the total cereal area in Tunisia. Appropriate evaluation of the benefits of CA on sustainable agricultural intensification would provide more arguments for effectively supporting CA adoption in Tunisia.}, }
@article {pmid31539949, year = {2019}, author = {Filho, WL and Balogun, AL and Olayide, OE and Azeiteiro, UM and Ayal, DY and Muñoz, PDC and Nagy, GJ and Bynoe, P and Oguge, O and Yannick Toamukum, N and Saroar, M and Li, C}, title = {Assessing the impacts of climate change in cities and their adaptive capacity: Towards transformative approaches to climate change adaptation and poverty reduction in urban areas in a set of developing countries.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {692}, number = {}, pages = {1175-1190}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.227}, pmid = {31539949}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Many cities across the world are facing many problems climate change poses to their populations, communities and infrastructure. These vary from increased exposures to floods, to discomfort due to urban heat, depending on their geographical locations and settings. However, even though some cities have a greater ability to cope with climate change challenges, many struggle to do so, particularly in cities in developing countries. In addition, there is a shortage of international studies which examine the links between climate change adaptation and cities, and which at the same time draw some successful examples of good practice, which may assist future efforts. This paper is an attempt to address this information need. The aim of this paper is to analyse the extent to which cities in a sample of developing countries are attempting to pursue climate change adaptation and the problems which hinder this process. Its goal is to showcase examples of initiatives and good practice in transformative adaptation, which may be replicable elsewhere. To this purpose, the paper describes some trends related to climate change in a set of cities in developing countries across different continents, including one of the smallest capital cities (Georgetown, Guyana) and Shanghai, one the world's most populous cities. In particular, it analyses their degree of vulnerability, how they manage to cope with climate change impacts, and the policies being implemented to aid adaptation. It also suggests the use of transformative approaches which may be adopted, in order to assist them in their efforts towards investments in low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure, thereby maximizing investments in urban areas and trying to address their related poverty issues. This paper addresses a gap in the international literature on the problems many cities in developing countries face, in trying to adapt to a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid31539939, year = {2019}, author = {Markkula, I and Turunen, M and Rasmus, S}, title = {A review of climate change impacts on the ecosystem services in the Saami Homeland in Finland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {692}, number = {}, pages = {1070-1085}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.272}, pmid = {31539939}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Finland ; }, abstract = {The aim of this work is (i) to review the recent studies on weather and climate change in Finnish Sápmi and to present the literature review findings alongside our survey on the observations made by local reindeer herders on the same phenomena, and, further, (ii) to review the impacts of climate change on the ecosystem services (ES) in Finnish Sápmi. The focus of the study is on the impacts of climate change on those habitat, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services which are interconnected with the Saami way of life as Indigenous people and thus support the continuity of their culture. In the holistic world view of Arctic Indigenous peoples, material culture and non-material culture are not separated, and there is no boundary between nature and culture. However, cultural and spiritual meanings of ecosystems, species and landscapes are rarely taken into account in scientific research on ecosystems services. Our review indicates that mostly negative impacts of climate warming on ecosystems and traditional livelihoods are to be expected in Sápmi. The most profound negative impacts will be on palsa mire and fell ecosystems, in particular snowbeds, snow patches and mountain birch forests. Consequently, changes in ecosystems may erode cultural meanings, stories, memories and traditional knowledge attached to them and affect the nature-based traditional livelihoods. In a situation where our rapidly changing climate is affecting the foundations of the nature-based cultures, the present review can provide a knowledge base for developing adaptation actions and strategies for local communities and Indigenous peoples to cope with changes caused by climate change and other drivers.}, }
@article {pmid31537412, year = {2019}, author = {Alurralde, G and Fuentes, VL and Maggioni, T and Movilla, J and Olariaga, A and Orejas, C and Schloss, IR and Tatián, M}, title = {Role of suspension feeders in antarctic pelagic-benthic coupling: Trophic ecology and potential carbon sinks under climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {152}, number = {}, pages = {104790}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.104790}, pmid = {31537412}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; *Food Chain ; }, abstract = {Sea-ice and coastal glacier loss in the Western Antarctic Peninsula open new ice-free areas. They allowing primary production and providing new seabed for colonisation, both acting as a negative feedback of climate change. However, the injection of sediment-laden runoff from the melting of land-terminating glaciers may reduce this feedback. Changes in particulate matter will affect nutrition and excretion (faeces stoichiometry and properties) of suspension feeders, reshaping coastal carbon dynamics and pelagic-benthic coupling. Absorption efficiency and biodeposition of Euphausia superba and Cnemidocarpa verrucosa were quantified for different food treatments and varying sediment concentrations. Both species showed high overall absorption efficiency for free-sediment diets, but were negatively affected by sediment addition. High sediment conditions increased krill biodeposition, while it decreased in ascidians. Energy balance estimation indicated high carbon sink potential in ascidians, but it is modulated by food characteristics and negatively affected by sediment inputs in the water column.}, }
@article {pmid31534712, year = {2019}, author = {Walker, WH and Meléndez-Fernández, OH and Nelson, RJ and Reiter, RJ}, title = {Global climate change and invariable photoperiods: A mismatch that jeopardizes animal fitness.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {17}, pages = {10044-10054}, pmid = {31534712}, issn = {2045-7758}, support = {U54 GM104942/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {The Earth's surface temperature is rising, and precipitation patterns throughout the Earth are changing; the source of these shifts is likely anthropogenic in nature. Alterations in temperature and precipitation have obvious direct and indirect effects on both plants and animals. Notably, changes in temperature and precipitation alone can have both advantageous and detrimental consequences depending on the species. Typically, production of offspring is timed to coincide with optimal food availability; thus, individuals of many species display annual rhythms of reproductive function. Because it requires substantial time to establish or re-establish reproductive function, individuals cannot depend on the arrival of seasonal food availability to begin breeding; thus, mechanisms have evolved in many plants and animals to monitor and respond to day length in order to anticipate seasonal changes in the environment. Over evolutionary time, there has been precise fine-tuning of critical photoperiod and onset/offset of seasonal adaptations. Climate change has provoked changes in the availability of insects and plants which shifts the timing of optimal reproduction. However, adaptations to the stable photoperiod may be insufficiently plastic to allow a shift in the seasonal timing of bird and mammal breeding. Coupled with the effects of light pollution which prevents these species from determining day length, climate change presents extreme evolutionary pressure that can result in severe deleterious consequences for individual species reproduction and survival. This review describes the effects of climate change on plants and animals, defines photoperiod and the physiological events it regulates, and addresses the consequences of global climate change and a stable photoperiod.}, }
@article {pmid31534490, year = {2019}, author = {Tapley, BD and Watkins, MM and Flechtner, F and Reigber, C and Bettadpur, S and Rodell, M and Sasgen, I and Famiglietti, JS and Landerer, FW and Chambers, DP and Reager, JT and Gardner, AS and Save, H and Ivins, ER and Swenson, SC and Boening, C and Dahle, C and Wiese, DN and Dobslaw, H and Tamisiea, ME and Velicogna, I}, title = {Contributions of GRACE to understanding climate change.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {358-369}, pmid = {31534490}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {/GSFC/Goddard Space Flight Center NASA/United States ; SCMD-EARTHSCIENCESYSTEM_978613/ImNASA/Intramural NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {Time-resolved satellite gravimetry has revolutionized understanding of mass transport in the Earth system. Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has enabled monitoring of the terrestrial water cycle, ice sheet and glacier mass balance, sea level change and ocean bottom pressure variations and understanding responses to changes in the global climate system. Initially a pioneering experiment of geodesy, the time-variable observations have matured into reliable mass transport products, allowing assessment and forecast of a number of important climate trends and improve service applications such as the U.S. Drought Monitor. With the successful launch of the GRACE Follow-On mission, a multi decadal record of mass variability in the Earth system is within reach.}, }
@article {pmid31534259, year = {2019}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {The hard truths of climate change - by the numbers.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {573}, number = {7774}, pages = {324-327}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02711-4}, pmid = {31534259}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Disaster Planning/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/organization &amp; administration ; Disasters/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*trends ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; International Cooperation ; *Internationality ; Leadership ; Political Activism/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid31533360, year = {2019}, author = {Moda, HM and Filho, WL and Minhas, A}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Outdoor Workers and their Safety: Some Research Priorities.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {31533360}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; *Climate Change ; Efficiency ; Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Humans ; Occupational Exposure/*adverse effects ; *Occupational Health ; Occupations ; Research ; Social Change ; Workplace ; }, abstract = {The literature on the potential impacts of climate change on the health of outdoor workers has received limited attention as a whole, and in sub-Saharan African countries in particular. Yet, substantial numbers of workers are experiencing the health effects of elevated temperature, in combination with changes in precipitation patterns, climate extremes and the effects of air pollution, which have a potential impact on their safety and wellbeing. With increased temperatures within urban settlements and frequent heats waves, there has been a sudden rise in the occurrence of heat-related illness leading to higher levels of mortality, as well as other adverse health impacts. This paper discusses the impacts of extreme heat exposure and health concerns among outdoor workers, and the resultant impacts on their productivity and occupational safety in tropical developing countries with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, where there is a dearth of such studies. Aside from the direct effects caused by extreme heat exposure, other indirect health hazards associated with increasing heat among this group includes exposures to hazardous chemicals and other vector-borne diseases. In addition, reduced work capacity in heat-exposed jobs will continue to rise and hinder economic and social development in such countries. There is an urgent need for further studies around the health and economic impacts of climate change in the workplace, especially in tropical developing countries, which may guide the implementation of the measures needed to address the problem.}, }
@article {pmid31533302, year = {2019}, author = {Huang, X and Zhang, T and Yi, G and He, D and Zhou, X and Li, J and Bie, X and Miao, J}, title = {Dynamic Changes of NDVI in the Growing Season of the Tibetan Plateau During the Past 17 Years and Its Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {31533302}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plant Development ; Satellite Imagery ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {The fragile alpine vegetation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is very sensitive to environmental changes, making TP one of the hotspots for studying the response of vegetation to climate change. Existing studies lack detailed description of the response of vegetation to different climatic factors using the method of multiple nested time series analysis and the method of grey correlation analysis. In this paper, based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of TP in the growing season calculated from the MOD09A1 data product of Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the method of multiple nested time series analysis is adopted to study the variation trends of NDVI in recent 17 years, and the lag time of NDVI to climate change is analyzed using the method of Grey Relational Analysis (GRA). Finally, the characteristics of temporal and spatial differences of NDVI to different climate factors are summarized. The results indicate that: (1) the spatial distribution of NDVI values in the growing season shows a trend of decreasing from east to west, and from north to south, with a change rate of -0.13/10° E and -0.30/10° N, respectively. (2) From 2001 to 2017, the NDVI in the TP shows a slight trend of increase, with a growth rate of 0.01/10a. (3) The lag time of NDVI to air temperature is not obvious, while the NDVI response lags behind cumulative precipitation by zero to one month, relative humidity by two months, and sunshine duration by three months. (4) The effects of different climatic factors on NDVI are significantly different with the increase of the study period.}, }
@article {pmid31533071, year = {2020}, author = {Cline, AJ and Hamilton, SL and Logan, CA}, title = {Effects of multiple climate change stressors on gene expression in blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus).}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {239}, number = {}, pages = {110580}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.110580}, pmid = {31533071}, issn = {1531-4332}, support = {S10 OD018174/OD/NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Energy Metabolism ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Hypoxia/genetics/metabolism ; Oxygen/metabolism ; Perciformes/genetics/*physiology ; Seawater ; Sequence Analysis, RNA/methods ; Stress, Physiological/*genetics ; Transcriptome ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is predicted to increase the co-occurrence of high pCO2 and hypoxia in coastal upwelling zones worldwide. Yet, few studies have examined the effects of these stressors on economically and ecologically important fishes. Here, we investigated short-term responses of juvenile blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) to independent and combined high pCO2 and hypoxia at the molecular level, using changes in gene expression and metabolic enzymatic activity to investigate potential shifts in energy metabolism. Fish were experimentally exposed to conditions associated with intensified upwelling under climate change: high pCO2 (1200 μatm, pH~7.6), hypoxia (4.0 mg O2/L), and a combined high pCO2/hypoxia treatment for 12 h, 24 h, or two weeks. Muscle transcriptome profiles varied significantly among the three treatments, with limited overlap among genes responsive to the single and combined stressors. Under elevated pCO2, blue rockfish increased expression of genes encoding proteins involved in the electron transport chain and muscle contraction. Under hypoxia, blue rockfish up-regulated genes involved in oxygen and ion transport and down-regulated transcriptional machinery. Under combined stressors, blue rockfish induced a unique set of ionoregulatory and hypoxia-responsive genes not expressed under the single stressors. Thus, high pCO2 and hypoxia exposure appears to induce a non-additive transcriptomic response that cannot be predicted from single stressor exposures alone, further highlighting the need for multiple stressor studies at the molecular level. Overall, lack of a shift towards anaerobic metabolism or induction of a cellular stress response under multiple stressors suggests that blue rockfish may be relatively resistant to intensified upwelling conditions in the short term.}, }
@article {pmid31532931, year = {2019}, author = {Temte, JL and Holzhauer, JR and Kushner, KP}, title = {Correlation Between Climate Change and Dysphoria in Primary Care.}, journal = {WMJ : official publication of the State Medical Society of Wisconsin}, volume = {118}, number = {2}, pages = {71-74}, pmid = {31532931}, issn = {2379-3961}, mesh = {Anxiety/*diagnosis ; *Climate Change ; Depression/*diagnosis ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Primary Health Care ; Psychiatric Status Rating Scales ; Stress, Psychological/*diagnosis ; Wisconsin ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Concern about climate change may affect mental health. We evaluated the relationship between primary care patients' attitudes toward climate change and dysphoria.<br><br>METHODS: In 2013, we surveyed 571 adult primary care patients in southern Wisconsin. Attitudes toward climate change were measured using a 46-point composite of 9 questions. Dysphoria was measured using a 13-point composite summing the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-2) and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale (GAD-2).<br><br>RESULTS: Patients frequently reported concern about climate change and 22.5% experienced dysphoria. A significant, positive correlation existed between the composite climate change score and the dysphoria score (rs=0.345; P<0.001).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Primary care patients are concerned about climate change and this concern is positively related to dysphoria. The level to which dysphoria is due to climate change should be elucidated.}, }
@article {pmid31531900, year = {2019}, author = {Patrick, R and Armstrong, F and Hancock, T and Capon, A and Smith, JA}, title = {Climate change and health promotion in Australia: Navigating political, policy, advocacy and research challenges.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {295-298}, doi = {10.1002/hpja.278}, pmid = {31531900}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; *Health Policy ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; *Politics ; Research/*organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid31530927, year = {2019}, author = {Yamin, F}, title = {Why I broke the law for climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {573}, number = {7774}, pages = {337-339}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02736-9}, pmid = {31530927}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Civil Disorders/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Economics/*trends ; Environmental Policy/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; Global Warming/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; International Cooperation/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Leadership ; *Political Activism ; Research Personnel/organization &amp; administration ; Strikes, Employee ; Sustainable Development/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid31530925, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Ren, Y and Chen, Y}, title = {China fortifies marine protection areas against climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {573}, number = {7774}, pages = {346}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02774-3}, pmid = {31530925}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Aquatic Organisms ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; Science ; }, }
@article {pmid31530921, year = {2019}, author = {Witze, A}, title = {Meet the weather observers on climate change's front lines.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {573}, number = {7774}, pages = {317-318}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02632-2}, pmid = {31530921}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31529863, year = {2019}, author = {Liang, SQ and Peng, SZ and Chen, YM}, title = {[Responses of productivity of typical natural secondary forests and plantations to climate change in Shaanxi Province, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {9}, pages = {2892-2902}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201909.022}, pmid = {31529863}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; }, abstract = {We analyzed the changes of net primary productivity (NPP) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of Quercus spp. forest and Robinia pseudoacacia plantation under different future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100, using the process-based dynamic vegetation model-LPJ-GUESS. The results showed that compared with the benchmark period (1961-1990), NPP of Quercus spp. forest and R. pseudoacacia plantation in northern Shaanxi would decrease by 4.9%-29.5% and 22.5%-56.2% respectively, while that in Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi would increase by 13.0%-49.0% and 21.3%-62.9% respectively in the future. The NPP of Quercus spp. forest and R. pseudoacacia plantation under the RCP8.5 scenario was the highest, followed by that under the RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. Those two types of forest would be carbon sink in three subregions in the future. Quercus spp. forest would have stronger carbon sink function in nor-thern Shaanxi and Guanzhong, while R. pseudoacacia plantation would have stronger carbon sink function in Southern Shaanxi. Under different RCP scenarios, the NEP variation range of R. pseu-doacacia plantation was greater than that of Quercus spp. forest in three subregions.}, }
@article {pmid31529747, year = {2020}, author = {Osland, MJ and Feher, LC}, title = {Winter climate change and the poleward range expansion of a tropical invasive tree (Brazilian pepper-Schinus terebinthifolius).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {607-615}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14842}, pmid = {31529747}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//USGS Invasive Species Program/International ; //USGS Ecosystems Mission Area/International ; //USGS Land Change Science Climate R&amp;D Program/International ; //USGS Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science Program/International ; }, mesh = {*Anacardiaceae ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Florida ; Gulf of Mexico ; Southeastern United States ; Temperature ; Trees ; United States ; }, abstract = {Winter climate change is expected to lead to the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems, where tropical species expand poleward in response to a decrease in the intensity and duration of winter temperature extremes (i.e., freeze events). In the southeastern United States, freezing temperatures control the northern range limits of many invasive nonnative species. Here, we examine the influence of freezing temperatures and winter climate change on the northern range limits of an invasive nonnative tree-Schinus terebinthifolius (Brazilian pepper). Since introduction in the 1800s, Brazilian pepper has invaded ecosystems throughout south and central Florida to become the state's most widespread nonnative plant species. Although Brazilian pepper is sensitive to freezing temperatures, temperature controls on its northern distribution have not been adequately quantified. We used temperature and plant occurrence data to quantify the sensitivity of Brazilian pepper to freezing temperatures. Then, we examined the potential for range expansion under three alternative future climate scenarios (+2°C, +4°C, and +6°C). Our analyses identify a strong nonlinear sigmoidal relationship between minimum temperature and Brazilian pepper presence, with a discrete threshold temperature occurring near -11°C. Our future scenario analyses indicate that, in response to warming winter temperatures, Brazilian pepper is expected to expand northward and transform ecosystems in north Florida and across much of the Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic coasts of the United States. These results underscore the importance of early detection and rapid response efforts to identify and manage the northward invasion of Brazilian pepper in response to climate change. Looking more broadly, our work highlights the need to anticipate and prepare for the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by tropical invasive species.}, }
@article {pmid31527780, year = {2019}, author = {Anderson, K and Jewell, J}, title = {Debating the bedrock of climate-change mitigation scenarios.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {573}, number = {7774}, pages = {348-349}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02744-9}, pmid = {31527780}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation/*standards ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid31527251, year = {2019}, author = {Fu, YB and Peterson, GW and Horbach, C and Konkin, DJ and Beiles, A and Nevo, E}, title = {Elevated mutation and selection in wild emmer wheat in response to 28 years of global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {40}, pages = {20002-20008}, pmid = {31527251}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Alleles ; *Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; Climate ; *DNA Mutational Analysis ; Exome ; *Genes, Plant ; Genetics, Population ; Genomics ; *Global Warming ; Israel ; Models, Genetic ; *Mutation ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Temperature ; Triticum/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Global warming has been documented to threaten wild plants with strong selection pressures, but how plant populations respond genetically to the threats remains poorly understood. We characterized the genetic responses of 10 wild emmer wheat (Triticum dicoccoides Koern.; WEW) populations in Israel, sampling them in 1980 and again in 2008, through an exome capture analysis. It was found that these WEW populations were under elevated selection, displayed reduced diversity and temporal divergence, and carried increased mutational burdens forward. However, some populations still showed the ability to acquire beneficial alleles via selection or de novo mutation for future adaptation. Grouping populations with mean annual rainfall and temperature revealed significant differences in most of the 14 genetic estimates in either sampling year or over the 28 y. The patterns of genetic response to rainfall and temperature varied and were complex. In general, temperature groups displayed more temporal differences in genetic response than rainfall groups. The highest temperature group had more deleterious single nucleotide polymorphisms (dSNPs), higher nucleotide diversity, fewer selective sweeps, lower differentiation, and lower mutational burden. The least rainfall group had more dSNPs, higher nucleotide diversity, lower differentiation and higher mutational burden. These characterized genetic responses are significant, allowing not only for better understanding of evolutionary changes in the threatened populations, but also for realistic modeling of plant population adaptability and vulnerability to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid31526962, year = {2019}, author = {Awazi, NP and Tchamba, MN and Avana, TM}, title = {Climate change resiliency choices of small-scale farmers in Cameroon: determinants and policy implications.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {250}, number = {}, pages = {109560}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109560}, pmid = {31526962}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Cameroon ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Farms ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate variability and change has continued to wreak havoc on the agricultural sector, with small-scale farmers being the most hard-hit. The limited adaptive capacity of small-scale farmers faced with the impacts of climate variability and change principally explains their high level of vulnerability. It is within this framework that this study sought to examine the specific resiliency choices of small-scale farmers faced with climate variability and change in Cameroon, and the plausible policy implications. Data was collected through a survey of 300 small-scale farmer household heads as well as climate data collected from meteorological stations. Data analysis was run on Microsoft Excel 2007 and SPSS 20, employing descriptive and inferential statistics. Findings showed significant fluctuations in climate parameters in recent years. The main resiliency choices of small-scale farmers faced with climate variability and change were on-farm practices (23%), off-farm practices (19%), and agroforestry practices (28%); with 30% of the sampled farmers taking to the no resiliency option. A statistically significant (p < 0.01; p < 0.05; and p < 0.10) causal and non-causal relationship was found to exist between independent variables (household size, age of household head, number of farms, farm size, household income, farm experience, gender, experience of extreme weather events, access to weather information, access to extension services, access to credit, distance to market, access to land, and membership in farming group) and small-scale farmers' practice of different resiliency options faced with climate variability and change. This shows that small-scale farmers' practice of different resiliency options faced with climate variability and change is determined by past experience of extreme weather/climate events as well as socio-economic and institutional factors. On the basis of these findings, it is recommended that policy makers factor in these determinants when taking actions geared towards enhancing small-scale farmers' resilience to climate variability and change.}, }
@article {pmid31526961, year = {2019}, author = {Galappaththi, EK and Ford, JD and Bennett, EM and Berkes, F}, title = {Climate change and community fisheries in the arctic: A case study from Pangnirtung, Canada.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {250}, number = {}, pages = {109534}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109534}, pmid = {31526961}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; Fishes ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Coastal fishery systems in the Arctic are undergoing rapid change. This paper examines the ways in which Inuit fishers experience and respond to such change, using a case study from Pangnirtung, Canada. The work is based on over two years of fieldwork, during which semi-structured interviews (n = 62), focus group discussions (n = 6, 31 participants) and key informant interviews (n = 25) were conducted. The changes that most Inuit fishers experience are: changes in sea-ice conditions, Inuit people themselves, the landscape and the seascape, fish-related changes, and changes in weather conditions, markets and fish selling prices. Inuit fishers respond to change individually as well as collectively. Fishers' responses were examined using the characteristics of a resilience-based conceptual framework focusing on place, human agency, collective action and collaboration, institutions, indigenous and local knowledge systems, and learning. Based on results, this paper identified three community-level adaptive strategies, which are diversification, technology use and fisheries governance that employs a co-management approach. Further, this work recognised four place-specific attributes that can shape community adaptations, which are Inuit worldviews, Inuit-owned institutions, a culture of sharing and collaborating, and indigenous and local knowledge systems. An examination of the ways in which Inuit fishers experience and respond to change is essential to better understand adaptations to climate change. This study delivers new insights to communities, scientists, and policymakers to work together to foster community adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31525752, year = {2019}, author = {Bosch, D}, title = {Death, Taxes, and Global Warming.}, journal = {Annals of internal medicine}, volume = {171}, number = {6}, pages = {438}, doi = {10.7326/M19-0949}, pmid = {31525752}, issn = {1539-3704}, }
@article {pmid31524985, year = {2019}, author = {Bishop, J}, title = {Climate change.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {55}, number = {9}, pages = {1151}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.14569}, pmid = {31524985}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid31520376, year = {2019}, author = {Luqman, M and Soytas, U and Peng, S and Huang, S}, title = {Sharing the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation via Shapley value.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {32}, pages = {33157-33168}, pmid = {31520376}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Paris ; }, abstract = {This paper examines the free rider problem that exists in the joint effort to mitigate climate change. There is a need to develop a model that is stable and that provides evidence of an objective burden sharing rule so that the environmental agreement is more acceptable. This study approaches this problem via a cooperative game at the global level to make International Environmental Agreements (IEA) more stable. For this purpose, we apply the Shapley value transfer mechanism and find that under the commitment scenario, some regions attain the maximum benefits by joining the coalition. Shapley value transfer improves the coalition size and increases the global benefits at a certain level of abatement under perfect cooperation. Imperfect cooperation leads to lower levels of global benefits. Our findings offer new implications on how to improve the international cooperation for climate change. Commitments by major regions could activate the IEA (e.g., Paris agreement) efficiently. For the maximum global response to climate change, the national governments must reformulate and implement policies to meet their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs). The results of this study also help the national governments to set their implementation priorities to implement the Paris Accord at global level.}, }
@article {pmid31518432, year = {2019}, author = {Yezli, S and Khan, A and Bouchama, A}, title = {Summer Hajj pilgrimage in the era of global warming: a call for vigilance and better understanding of the risks.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jtm/taz069}, pmid = {31518432}, issn = {1708-8305}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Heat Stroke/*epidemiology/etiology ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Incidence ; *Islam ; Saudi Arabia/epidemiology ; *Seasons ; *Travel ; }, }
@article {pmid31515385, year = {2019}, author = {Hagedorn, F and Gavazov, K and Alexander, JM}, title = {Above- and belowground linkages shape responses of mountain vegetation to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {365}, number = {6458}, pages = {1119-1123}, doi = {10.1126/science.aax4737}, pmid = {31515385}, issn = {1095-9203}, support = {/SNSF_/Swiss National Science Foundation/Switzerland ; }, mesh = {*Altitude ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Plant Dispersal ; Plants ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Upward shifts of mountain vegetation lag behind rates of climate warming, partly related to interconnected changes belowground. Here, we unravel above- and belowground linkages by drawing insights from short-term experimental manipulations and elevation gradient studies. Soils will likely gain carbon in early successional ecosystems, while losing carbon as forest expands upward, and the slow, high-elevation soil development will constrain warming-induced vegetation shifts. Current approaches fail to predict the pace of these changes and how much they will be modified by interactions among plants and soil biota. Integrating mountain soils and their biota into monitoring programs, combined with innovative comparative and experimental approaches, will be crucial to overcome the paucity of belowground data and to better understand mountain ecosystem dynamics and their feedbacks to climate.}, }
@article {pmid31514024, year = {2020}, author = {Zhang, Y and Wang, Q and Wang, Z and Yang, Y and Li, J}, title = {Impact of human activities and climate change on the grassland dynamics under different regime policies in the Mongolian Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {698}, number = {}, pages = {134304}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134304}, pmid = {31514024}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To mitigate the grassland degradation in the Mongolian Plateau (MP), both China and Mongolia governments have carried out a series of new policies and ecological projects. However, the effect of such restoration measures on the productivity of grassland in the MP under different political systems remains unclear. Here we study the effects of land use and land cover change, human activities and climate change on the net primary productivity (NPP) of grassland in Mongolia (MG) and Inner Mongolia (IM) from 2001 to 2014. Results showed that the area of grassland increased in both MG and IM, accounted for 4.45 × 10[4] and 10.31 × 10[4] km[2], respectively. The extended grassland contributed 4.34 × 10[8] Gg C (Gg = 10[9] g) to the total NPP, while the loss of grassland led to a decrease of 0.19 × 10[8] Gg C. The total NPP of grasslands in 2014 increased about 17.88% and 30.49% respectively in MG and IM since 2001. Specifically, IM exhibited a higher increase in land converted NPP than MG. The area of grassland restoration in IM and MG accounted for 90.21% and 81.45%, respectively, indicating that the grassland of the MP was restored. Although human activity was the dominant factor on grassland degradation, which was accounted for 9.79% and 18.55% in IM and MG, it has a positive effect on most of the grassland NPP in the MP. Overall, policy measures and ecological projects in IM brought a more positive effect compared with that in MG.}, }
@article {pmid31513997, year = {2019}, author = {Azadi, Y and Yazdanpanah, M and Mahmoudi, H}, title = {Understanding smallholder farmers' adaptation behaviors through climate change beliefs, risk perception, trust, and psychological distance: Evidence from wheat growers in Iran.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {250}, number = {}, pages = {109456}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109456}, pmid = {31513997}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Iran ; Triticum ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) poses severe threats to the agriculture sector in developing countries. ‏Increasing empirical evidence has confirmed that adaptation strategies to CC at the farm level can significantly reduce the negative impacts of CC and minimize vulnerability. Consequently, understanding adaptation to CC has become a major concern for farmers to facilitate adaptation actions and assist them in improving their adaptive capacity. In this context, this study investigated the most prominent psychological drivers of, and impediments to, adaptation responses. To this end, 350 farmers from Kermanshah district in western of Iran were selected as our sample through a multi-stage, stratified, random sampling method. Structural equation modeling found a complex relationship between overall CC belief, risk perception, psychological distance, trust and risk salience, and farmers' adaptation behaviors. Climate risk perception, trust, and psychological distance were much more effective in driving farmers' adaptation behaviors. The findings yield recommendations for public policy and risk communication that could encourage adaptation behaviors among Iranian farmers.}, }
@article {pmid31512173, year = {2020}, author = {Colombo, SM and Rodgers, TFM and Diamond, ML and Bazinet, RP and Arts, MT}, title = {Projected declines in global DHA availability for human consumption as a result of global warming.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {49}, number = {4}, pages = {865-880}, pmid = {31512173}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {04537-2014//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; 124042-12//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture ; *Docosahexaenoic Acids ; Fisheries ; Fishes ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) is an essential, omega-3, long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid that is a key component of cell membranes and plays a vital role in vertebrate brain function. The capacity to synthesize DHA is limited in mammals, despite its critical role in neurological development and health. For humans, DHA is most commonly obtained by eating fish. Global warming is predicted to reduce the de novo synthesis of DHA by algae, at the base of aquatic food chains, and which is expected to reduce DHA transferred to fish. We estimated the global quantity of DHA (total and per capita) currently available from commercial (wild caught and aquaculture) and recreational fisheries. The potential decrease in the amount of DHA available from fish for human consumption was modeled using the predicted effect of established global warming scenarios on algal DHA production and ensuing transfer to fish. We conclude that an increase in water temperature could result, depending on the climate scenario and location, in a ~ 10 to 58% loss of globally available DHA by 2100, potentially limiting the availability of this critical nutrient to humans. Inland waters show the greatest potential for climate-warming-induced decreases in DHA available for human consumption. The projected decrease in DHA availability as a result of global warming would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations (e.g., fetuses, infants), especially in inland Africa (due to low reported per capita DHA availability). We estimated, in the worst-case scenario, that DHA availability could decline to levels where 96% of the global population may not have access to sufficient DHA.}, }
@article {pmid31508521, year = {2019}, author = {Atsbha, T and Belayneh Desta, A and Zewdu, T}, title = {Carbon sequestration potential of natural vegetation under grazing influence in Southern Tigray, Ethiopia: implication for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {5}, number = {8}, pages = {e02329}, pmid = {31508521}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {The management influence on carbon sequestration potential of different land use types are least known at the national level. This research was conducted to assess the impact of area exclusion on carbon sequestration potential in the two land use systems: protected natural vegetation (PNV) and communal grazing land (CGL). Data of vegetation, litter, and soils were collected using systematic sampling methods, laying 19 transects and 62 quadrats each with 20 m × 20 m for trees, 5 m × 5 m sub-quadrats for shrubs, and 1 m × 1m sub-quadrats for herbs/grasses, litter biomass, and soil sample. Aboveground biomass carbon (AGC), belowground biomass carbon (BGC), soil organic carbon (SOC), and total carbon stock (TC) were estimated using allometric equations. The mean difference level of carbon stocks (P < 0.05) of the two land use systems was tested through unequal variance t-test using R-software. The mean above ground and below ground carbon stock of PNV, 21.05 ton/ha, 10.39 ton/ha, was higher than CGL, 15.31 ton/ha, 7.65 ton/ha, respectively. The average values of SOC was 16.60 ton/ha from PNV and 13.76 ton/ha from CGL. The mean value of SOC was higher at the PNV than CGL and significantly different (P < 0.05). The total carbon stock estimate of PNV and CGL were 50.74 ton/ha and 37.11 ton/ha, respectively, which is significantly different (P < 0.05). We concluded that, establishment of PNV as the best practice of restoration programs through exclusion of livestock from free grazing and human interference provides cost effective mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity conservation, livelihood support, and climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid31505366, year = {2020}, author = {Li, J and Fan, G and He, Y}, title = {Predicting the current and future distribution of three Coptis herbs in China under climate change conditions, using the MaxEnt model and chemical analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {698}, number = {}, pages = {134141}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134141}, pmid = {31505366}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Coptis ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Medicine, Chinese Traditional ; *Models, Statistical ; }, abstract = {The rhizomes of Coptis chinensis Franch., Coptis deltoidea C. Y. Cheng et Hsiao and Coptis teeta Wall, are sources of renowned traditional Chinese medicines. Recently, human activities and climate change has caused degeneration of the natural habitats of these pharmacological plants. Analyzing the impact of climate change on the possible distribution of Coptis herbs is essential for their future conservation and domestication. The purpose of this study was to predict the potential distribution of these valuable plants and identify the potential effects of climate change on three Coptis species, using of species distribution modeling (SDM). In this study, we first predict the distribution size variations of the three plant species, under present and future conditions. Secondly, we carried out field sampling of these three species and analyzed the chemical composition by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Results show that the predicted distributions of all three Coptis herbs were not limit to the reported regions, but also cover other potential areas. Among the environmental variables, annual precipitation range (Bio2) induced the largest impact on SDMs for C. chinensis (72.2%) and C. deltoidea (37.9%), while C. teeta was more significantly affected by isothermally (Bio3, 39.2%). When comparing the possible future distribution to the present distribution of these species, a decreasing tendency was observed in the highly suitable areas of C. chinensis and the generally suitable areas of C. teeta, indicating that the environmental changes would affect the distribution of these two species. In addition, the average alkaloid content was found to be the highest in highly suitable areas, while it was decreased in moderately and generally suitable areas, indicating that alkaloid content may be related to environmental factors. In summary, these findings improve our understanding of the ecological impact of climate on the distribution of three Coptis species.}, }
@article {pmid31504086, year = {2020}, author = {Magkos, F and Tetens, I and Bügel, SG and Felby, C and Schacht, SR and Hill, JO and Ravussin, E and Astrup, A}, title = {A Perspective on the Transition to Plant-Based Diets: a Diet Change May Attenuate Climate Change, but Can It Also Attenuate Obesity and Chronic Disease Risk?.}, journal = {Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1-9}, pmid = {31504086}, issn = {2156-5376}, support = {P30 DK056336/DK/NIDDK NIH HHS/United States ; P30 DK079626/DK/NIDDK NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Chronic Disease/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; *Diet, Vegetarian/adverse effects ; Environment ; *Feeding Behavior ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Nutrition Policy ; Nutritional Requirements ; Obesity/*prevention &amp; control ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Current dietary guidelines advocate more plant-based, sustainable diets on the basis of scientific evidence about diet-health relations but also to address environmental concerns. Here, we critically review the effects of plant-based diets on the prevalence of obesity and other health outcomes. Plant-based diets per se have limited efficacy for the prevention and treatment of obesity, but most have beneficial effects in terms of chronic disease risk. However, with the considerable possibilities of translating plant-based diets into various types of dietary patterns, our analysis suggests that potential adverse health effects should also be considered in relation to vulnerable groups of the population. A transition to more plant-based diets may exert beneficial effects on the environment, but is unlikely to affect obesity, and may also have adverse health effects if this change is made without careful consideration of the nutritional needs of the individual relative to the adequacy of the dietary intake.}, }
@article {pmid31502733, year = {2019}, author = {Cazelles, K and Bartley, T and Guzzo, MM and Brice, MH and MacDougall, AS and Bennett, JR and Esch, EH and Kadoya, T and Kelly, J and Matsuzaki, SI and Nilsson, KA and McCann, KS}, title = {Homogenization of freshwater lakes: Recent compositional shifts in fish communities are explained by gamefish movement and not climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {12}, pages = {4222-4233}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14829}, pmid = {31502733}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {499021//Canada First Research Excellence Fund/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Eutrophication ; Fishes ; Humans ; *Lakes ; Ontario ; }, abstract = {Globally, lake fish communities are being subjected to a range of scale-dependent anthropogenic pressures, from climate change to eutrophication, and from overexploitation to species introductions. As a consequence, the composition of these communities is being reshuffled, in most cases leading to a surge in taxonomic similarity at the regional scale termed homogenization. The drivers of homogenization remain unclear, which may be a reflection of interactions between various environmental changes. In this study, we investigate two potential drivers of the recent changes in the composition of freshwater fish communities: recreational fishing and climate change. Our results, derived from 524 lakes of Ontario, Canada sampled in two periods (1965-1982 and 2008-2012), demonstrate that the main contributors to homogenization are the dispersal of gamefish species, most of which are large predators. Alternative explanations relating to lake habitat (e.g., area, phosphorus) or variations in climate have limited explanatory power. Our analysis suggests that human-assisted migration is the primary driver of the observed compositional shifts, homogenizing freshwater fish community among Ontario lakes and generating food webs dominated by gamefish species.}, }
@article {pmid31501506, year = {2019}, author = {Saupe, EE and Myers, CE and Townsend Peterson, A and Soberón, J and Singarayer, J and Valdes, P and Qiao, H}, title = {Spatio-temporal climate change contributes to latitudinal diversity gradients.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {10}, pages = {1419-1429}, pmid = {31501506}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; }, abstract = {The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), where the number of species increases from the poles to the Equator, ranks among the broadest and most notable biodiversity patterns on Earth. The pattern of species-rich tropics relative to species-poor temperate areas has been recognized for well over a century, but the generative mechanisms are still debated vigorously. We use simulations to test whether spatio-temporal climatic changes could generate large-scale patterns of biodiversity as a function of only three biological processes-speciation, extinction and dispersal-omitting adaptive niche evolution, diversity-dependence and coexistence limits. In our simulations, speciation resulted from range disjunctions, whereas extinction occurred when no suitable sites were accessible to species. Simulations generated clear LDGs that closely match empirical LDGs for three major vertebrate groups. Higher tropical diversity primarily resulted from higher low-latitude speciation, driven by spatio-temporal variation in precipitation rather than in temperature. This suggests that spatio-temporal changes in low-latitude precipitation prompted geographical range disjunctions over Earth's history, leading to high rates of allopatric speciation that contributed to LDGs. Overall, we show that major global biodiversity patterns can derive from interactions of species' niches (fixed a priori in our simulations) with dynamic climate across complex, existing landscapes, without invoking biotic interactions or niche-related adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid31501425, year = {2019}, author = {Riddell, EA and Roback, EY and Wells, CE and Zamudio, KR and Sears, MW}, title = {Thermal cues drive plasticity of desiccation resistance in montane salamanders with implications for climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4091}, pmid = {31501425}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Blood Vessels/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Cues ; *Desiccation ; Gene Regulatory Networks ; Lipids/chemistry ; Neovascularization, Physiologic/genetics ; Risk Factors ; Skin ; *Temperature ; Transcription, Genetic ; Transcriptome/genetics ; Urodela/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Organisms rely upon external cues to avoid detrimental conditions during environmental change. Rapid water loss, or desiccation, is a universal threat for terrestrial plants and animals, especially under climate change, but the cues that facilitate plastic responses to avoid desiccation are unclear. We integrate acclimation experiments with gene expression analyses to identify the cues that regulate resistance to water loss at the physiological and regulatory level in a montane salamander (Plethodon metcalfi). Here we show that temperature is an important cue for developing a desiccation-resistant phenotype and might act as a reliable cue for organisms across the globe. Gene expression analyses consistently identify regulation of stem cell differentiation and embryonic development of vasculature. The temperature-sensitive blood vessel development suggests that salamanders regulate water loss through the regression and regeneration of capillary beds in the skin, indicating that tissue regeneration may be used for physiological purposes beyond replacing lost limbs.}, }
@article {pmid31499344, year = {2020}, author = {Ciceu, A and Popa, I and Leca, S and Pitar, D and Chivulescu, S and Badea, O}, title = {Climate change effects on tree growth from Romanian forest monitoring Level II plots.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {698}, number = {}, pages = {134129}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134129}, pmid = {31499344}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fagus ; *Forestry ; *Forests ; Quercus ; Romania ; Seasons ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Forest health status is negatively influenced by climate change, air pollution and other disturbances. Extreme droughts reduce stand productivity, increase vulnerability to pests, and can even provoke mortality. Growth dynamics at tree and forest stand levels are considered the main indicators of stability and productivity in forest ecosystem structures. The main climate drivers for tree growth were identified using basal area increment (BAI) as a synthetic indicator. BAI chronologies were obtained from increment cores for 1960-2012 period. Six species were analysed in an attempt to identify their growth limiting factors. For the most important oak species in Romania, resilience components were computed in order to analyse their response to drought events. Moreover, growth dynamics were analysed for two species in mixed and monoculture forests. The results suggest that - in comparison to Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica, the sensitivity of Quercus spp. is much higher (0.3-0.47). Oakspecies situated in the most drought-affected areas are sensitive to rainfall values from the previous autumn, current spring, and early summer, with April monthly values having the most significant effect on BAI increment (r = 0.47*) The most sensitive species to drought is Q. cerris and Q. frainetto. Their BAI reduction during drought is >50% compared with the BAI values before the drought period. The recovery capacity of tree growth following drought events is lower for Q. robur and Q. petraea and higher for Q. cerris and Q. frainetto. The mixed forest stands have not showed a constant higher resistance to drought.}, }
@article {pmid31497853, year = {2019}, author = {Pearson, D and Ebisu, K and Wu, X and Basu, R}, title = {A Review of Coccidioidomycosis in California: Exploring the Intersection of Land Use, Population Movement, and Climate Change.}, journal = {Epidemiologic reviews}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {145-157}, doi = {10.1093/epirev/mxz004}, pmid = {31497853}, issn = {1478-6729}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Factors ; Aged ; California/epidemiology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate Change ; Coccidioides ; Coccidioidomycosis/*epidemiology/etiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Droughts ; *Dust ; *Environmental Exposure ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {California has seen a surge in coccidioidomycosis (valley fever), a disease spread by the Coccidioides immitis fungus found in soil throughout the state, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. We reviewed epidemiologic studies in which outbreak and sporadic cases of coccidioidomycosis were examined, and we considered the possible relationship of these cases to environmental conditions, particularly the state's increasing aridity, drought, and wildfire conditions. Most of the studies we reviewed pertained to cases occupationally acquired in construction, military, archeological, and correctional institutional settings where workers were exposed to dust in C. immitis-endemic areas. A few reviewed outbreaks in the general population related to dust exposure from natural disasters, including an earthquake-associated landslide and a dust storm that carried particles long distances from endemic areas. Although many of California's coccidioidomycosis outbreaks have been occupationally related, changing demographics and new, immunologically naïve populations in dry, endemic areas could expose the general population to C. immitis spores. Given the high rate of infection among workers who, for the most part, are healthy, the general population, including some elderly and immunocompromised individuals, could face additional risk. With climate-related events like drought and wildfires also increasing in endemic areas, research is needed to address the possible associations between these phenomena and coccidioidomycosis outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid31494727, year = {2019}, author = {Kwak, SS}, title = {Biotechnology of the sweetpotato: ensuring global food and nutrition security in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Plant cell reports}, volume = {38}, number = {11}, pages = {1361-1363}, pmid = {31494727}, issn = {1432-203X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Agriculture/economics ; Biotechnology ; *Climate Change ; Ipomoea batatas/*genetics/physiology ; Nutritive Value/genetics ; Plants, Medicinal/genetics/metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid31493576, year = {2020}, author = {Tudoran, GM and Zotta, M}, title = {Adapting the planning and management of Norway spruce forests in mountain areas of Romania to environmental conditions including climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {698}, number = {}, pages = {133761}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133761}, pmid = {31493576}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forestry/*methods ; *Forests ; Norway ; *Picea ; Romania ; }, abstract = {In Romania, natural Norway spruce forests are spread across upper mountain slopes (1300-1800 m). They perform multiple functions, being especially recognised for their economic value. However, where planted forests extend beyond the spruce's naturally occurring areas, they are frequently exposed to deleterious environmental factors. In Romania, forest planning is based on typological studies that were carried out between 1950 and 1970, and the regulations are applied in a somewhat flexible manner. In the context of the potential threats from climate change that could amplify induced destabilising phenomena, the risks to which these forests are becoming exposed can only be mediated through flexible management and the permanent adaptation of forest planning. For this reason, the purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for adapting forest management plan guidelines, with a view to improving ecosystem stability. A Norway spruce forest was chosen from the south-eastern Carpathians, which is included in the Natura 2000 Fagaras Mountains site. The models on which we based our current stand compositions resulted from long-term monitoring and analysis of species and stand structures. Stand structure - and forest structure, in general - is key to the continuous existence of stand functions and ecosystem services. Through design decisions, we promote biodiversity and the natural, better adapted, regeneration of local provenances. We highlight the rationale behind forest management planning and its regulations, with respect to the sustainable management of Norway spruce forests, which are vulnerable to potential changes in their structure as a result of climate change. Based on our findings, we propose the adaptation of measures used in forest management planning for Norway spruce forests to include protective functions that can be applied to all man-made Norway spruce forests introduced in former beech forest regions, and mixed coniferous/beech forests, that are vulnerable to changing environmental factors.}, }
@article {pmid31493149, year = {2019}, author = {Jeihouni, E and Mohammadi, M and Eslamian, S and Zareian, MJ}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater level through hybrid soft-computing methods: a case study-Shabestar Plain, Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {10}, pages = {620}, pmid = {31493149}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Water Resources/*methods ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Forecasting/*methods ; Groundwater/*analysis ; Iran ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Groundwater aquifers have always been confronted with significant challenges around the world such as climate change, over-extraction, pollution by wastewaters, and saltwater intrusion in coastal areas. Prediction of groundwater level under the effects of climate change is more important in water resource management. This study has therefore been evaluated the effects of two climate parameters (i.e., precipitation and temperature) in groundwater level for the Shabestar Plain, Iran. For this end, four models from General Circulation Models (GCM) were then used to evaluate future climate change scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathway (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). In the next phase, to reduce the spatial complexity of observation wells, clustering analysis was used. In case of groundwater level modeling, time series in the base period, Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous inputs (NARX) were also used. To improve the prediction accuracy, time series preprocessing made by wavelet-based de-noising approach was used. Analysis of the results illustrates an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation for study region in the future period times. The results also reveal that hybrid techniques of the wavelet-NARX give best results in comparison with the other models. A simulation result illustrates that the groundwater level declines in RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, which gives average levels of 0.61, 0.81, and 1.53 m, respectively, for the future period years (i.e., 2020-2024). These results would lead to continuous groundwater depletion. These findings emphasize the necessity of the importance of extraction policies in water resource management.}, }
@article {pmid31492929, year = {2019}, author = {Sultan, B and Defrance, D and Iizumi, T}, title = {Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {12834}, pmid = {31492929}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Africa, Western ; Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Crop Production ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Geography ; *Global Warming ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Millets/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Sorghum/*growth &amp; development ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Achieving food security goals in West Africa will depend on the capacity of the agricultural sector to feed the rapidly growing population and to moderate the adverse impacts of climate change. Indeed, a number of studies anticipate a reduction of the crop yield of the main staple food crops in the region in the coming decades due to global warming. Here, we found that crop production might have already been affected by climate change, with significant yield losses estimated in the historical past. We used a large ensemble of historical climate simulations derived from an atmospheric general circulation model and two process-based crop models, SARRA-H and CYGMA, to evaluate the effects of historical climate change on crop production in West Africa. We generated two ensembles of 100 historical simulations of yields of sorghum and millet corresponding to two climate conditions for each crop model. One ensemble is based on a realistic simulation of the actual climate, while the other is based on a climate simulation that does not account for human influences on climate systems (that is, the non-warming counterfactual climate condition). We found that the last simulated decade, 2000-2009, is approximately 1 °C warmer in West Africa in the ensemble accounting for human influences on climate, with more frequent heat and rainfall extremes. These altered climate conditions have led to regional average yield reductions of 10-20% for millet and 5-15% for sorghum in the two crop models. We found that the average annual production losses across West Africa in 2000-2009 associated with historical climate change, relative to a non-warming counterfactual condition (that is, pre-industrial climate), accounted for 2.33-4.02 billion USD for millet and 0.73-2.17 billion USD for sorghum. The estimates of production losses presented here can be a basis for the loss and damage associated with climate change to date and useful in estimating the costs of the adaptation of crop production systems in the region.}, }
@article {pmid31491025, year = {2019}, author = {Kirk, MA and Galatowitsch, ML and Wissinger, SA}, title = {Seasonal differences in climate change explain a lack of multi-decadal shifts in population characteristics of a pond breeding salamander.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {9}, pages = {e0222097}, pmid = {31491025}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; *Ponds ; Population Dynamics ; *Seasons ; *Urodela ; }, abstract = {There is considerable variation among studies that evaluate how amphibian populations respond to global climate change. We used 23 years of annual survey data to test whether changes in climate have caused predictable shifts in the phenology and population characteristics of adult spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) during spring breeding migrations. Although we observed year-to-year correlation between seasonal climate variables and salamander population characteristics, there have not been long-term, directional shifts in phenological or population characteristics. Warm winters consistently resulted in early migration dates, but across the 23-year study, there was no overall shift towards warmer winters and thus no advanced migration timing. Warm summers and low variability in summer temperatures were correlated with large salamander body sizes, yet an overall shift towards increasing body sizes was not observed despite rising summer temperatures during the study. This was likely due to the absence of long-term changes of within-year variation in summer temperatures, which was a stronger determinant of body size than summer temperature alone. Climate-induced shifts in population characteristics were thus not observed for this species as long-term changes in important seasonal climate variables were not observed during the 23-years of the study. Different amphibian populations will likely be more resilient to climate change impacts than others, and the probability of amphibians exhibiting long-term population changes will depend on how seasonal climate change interacts with a species' life history, phenology, and geographic location. Linking a wide range of seasonal climatic conditions to species or population characteristics should thus improve our ability for explaining idiosyncratic responses of species to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31488398, year = {2019}, author = {Iacobucci, G}, title = {NHS to step up efforts to tackle "health emergency" of climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {l5458}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l5458}, pmid = {31488398}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31487789, year = {2019}, author = {Fox, M and Zuidema, C and Bauman, B and Burke, T and Sheehan, M}, title = {Integrating Public Health into Climate Change Policy and Planning: State of Practice Update.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {18}, pages = {}, pmid = {31487789}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; Health Planning ; *Health Policy ; *Public Health ; United States ; }, abstract = {Policy action in the coming decade will be crucial to achieving globally agreed upon goals to decarbonize the economy and build resilience to a warmer, more extreme climate. Public health has an essential role in climate planning and action: "Co-benefits" to health help underpin greenhouse gas reduction strategies, while safeguarding health-particularly of the most vulnerable-is a frontline local adaptation goal. Using the structure of the core functions and essential services (CFES), we reviewed the literature documenting the evolution of public health's role in climate change action since the 2009 launch of the US CDC Climate and Health Program. We found that the public health response to climate change has been promising in the area of assessment (monitoring climate hazards, diagnosing health status, assessing vulnerability); mixed in the area of policy development (mobilizing partnerships, mitigation and adaptation activities); and relatively weak in assurance (communication, workforce development and evaluation). We suggest that the CFES model remains important, but is not aligned with three concepts-governance, implementation and adjustment-that have taken on increasing importance. Adding these concepts to the model can help ensure that public health fulfills its potential as a proactive partner fully integrated into climate policy planning and action in the coming decade.}, }
@article {pmid31481736, year = {2020}, author = {Dannenberg, AL and Rogerson, B and Rudolph, L}, title = {Optimizing the health benefits of climate change policies using health impact assessment.}, journal = {Journal of public health policy}, volume = {41}, number = {2}, pages = {139-154}, pmid = {31481736}, issn = {1745-655X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Health Impact Assessment ; *Health Policy ; Health Promotion/*methods ; Humans ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {Health impact assessment (HIA) is a tool that can be used to examine the potential health impacts of proposed climate change policies and offer recommendations to promote health and mitigate adverse health consequences of such policies. We used an HIA database, a literature search, and expert consultation to identify 12 HIAs of the proposed climate change policies from six states in the U.S. These policies included cap-and-trade legislation, heat-wave and sea-level-rise mitigation and adaptation, transportation policy impacts of climate change, carbon-reduction strategy scenarios, soil- and water-conservation strategies, urban forest canopy for climate adaptation, overheating buildings, and regional transportation plan and sustainable communities strategies. In four descriptive summaries, we found that HIAs foster stakeholder engagement and provide useful health-promoting recommendations. HIAs can facilitate cross-sector collaboration, help optimize the health co-benefits of climate change policies, and raise awareness among decision makers of health impacts of those proposed policies.}, }
@article {pmid31481618, year = {2019}, author = {Wan, X and Jiang, G and Yan, C and He, F and Wen, R and Gu, J and Li, X and Ma, J and Stenseth, NC and Zhang, Z}, title = {Historical records reveal the distinctive associations of human disturbance and extreme climate change with local extinction of mammals.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {38}, pages = {19001-19008}, pmid = {31481618}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Global Warming/*history ; History, 15th Century ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, Ancient ; History, Medieval ; Human Activities/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Mammals/*classification/*growth &amp; development ; *Population Density ; }, abstract = {Accelerated anthropogenic impacts and climatic changes are widely considered to be responsible for unprecedented species extinction. However, determining their effects on extinction is challenging owing to the lack of long-term data with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, using historical occurrence records of 11 medium- to large-sized mammal species or groups of species in China from 905 BC to AD 2006, we quantified the distinctive associations of anthropogenic stressors (represented by cropland coverage and human population density) and climatic stressors (represented by air temperature) with the local extinction of these mammals. We found that both intensified human disturbances and extreme climate change were associated with the increased local extinction of the study mammals. In the cold phase (the premodern period of China), climate cooling was positively associated with increased local extinction, while in the warm phase (the modern period) global warming was associated with increased local extinction. Interactive effects between human disturbance and temperature change with the local extinction of elephants, rhinos, pandas, and water deer were found. Large-sized mammals, such as elephants, rhinos, and pandas, showed earlier and larger population declines than small-sized ones. The local extinction sensitivities of these mammals to the human population density and standardized temperature were estimated during 1700 to 2000. The quantitative evidence for anthropogenic and climatic associations with mammalian extinction provided insights into the driving processes of species extinction, which has important implications for biodiversity conservation under accelerating global changes.}, }
@article {pmid31481431, year = {2019}, author = {Vogel, L}, title = {Canada's doctors tackle financial stressors, climate change at annual meeting.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {35}, pages = {E973-E974}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.1095812}, pmid = {31481431}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Economic Recession ; }, }
@article {pmid31481245, year = {2019}, author = {Parry, L and Radel, C and Adamo, SB and Clark, N and Counterman, M and Flores-Yeffal, N and Pons, D and Romero-Lankao, P and Vargo, J}, title = {The (in)visible health risks of climate change.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {241}, number = {}, pages = {112448}, pmid = {31481245}, issn = {1873-5347}, support = {P2C HD066613/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R13 HD078101/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Services Accessibility ; Healthcare Disparities ; Humans ; Mental Health Services/supply &amp; distribution ; Neglected Diseases ; Resource Allocation ; Social Determinants of Health ; Social Marginalization ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {This paper scrutinizes the assertion that knowledge gaps concerning health risks from climate change are unjust, and must be addressed, because they hinder evidence-led interventions to protect vulnerable populations. First, we construct a taxonomy of six inter-related forms of invisibility (social marginalization, forced invisibility by migrants, spatial marginalization, neglected diseases, mental health, uneven climatic monitoring and forecasting) which underlie systematic biases in current understanding of these risks in Latin America, and advocate an approach to climate-health research that draws on intersectionality theory to address these inter-relations. We propose that these invisibilities should be understood as outcomes of structural imbalances in power and resources rather than as haphazard blindspots in scientific and state knowledge. Our thesis, drawing on theories of governmentality, is that context-dependent tensions condition whether or not benefits of making vulnerable populations legible to the state outweigh costs. To be seen is to be politically counted and eligible for rights, yet evidence demonstrates the perils of visibility to disempowered people. For example, flood-relief efforts in remote Amazonia expose marginalized urban river-dwellers to the traumatic prospect of forced relocation and social and economic upheaval. Finally, drawing on research on citizenship in post-colonial settings, we conceptualize climate change as an 'open moment' of political rupture, and propose strategies of social accountability, empowerment and trans-disciplinary research which encourage the marginalized to reach out for greater power. These achievements could reduce drawbacks of state legibility and facilitate socially-just governmental action on climate change adaptation that promotes health for all.}, }
@article {pmid31480860, year = {2020}, author = {You, M and Ju, Y}, title = {Comparing Outrage Effect on the Risk Perception of Climate Change versus Fine Dust.}, journal = {Health communication}, volume = {35}, number = {13}, pages = {1678-1685}, doi = {10.1080/10410236.2019.1662555}, pmid = {31480860}, issn = {1532-7027}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Dust ; Emotions ; Humans ; Perception ; Trust ; }, abstract = {Public evaluation of risk is influenced by the emotive response to perceived risk characteristics, namely outrage factors. We evaluated which outrage factors contribute to the public perception of two different environmental risks, climate change and fine dust. In particular, the outrage factors of controllability, familiarity, and delayed effect were assessed to determine if they are more salient and influential for climate change than fine dust. A nationwide online survey (N = 1,000) was conducted to measure nine outrage factors and risk perception for both risks in a South Korean population. Although both environmental risks were associated with a similar level of risk perception, catastrophic potential and personal stake were the highest scoring outrage factors for climate change and fine dust, respectively, and were also the strongest influence for the level of each risk perception. Familiarity was more salient for climate change than fine dust, and was influential only for climate change. Delayed effect was more salient for climate change, but was not influential for the perception of both risks. Controllability was more salient for fine dust but had no significant influence on both risk perceptions. Catastrophic potential, dread, personal stake, and trust were common influential outrage factors for both risks. We discuss the significance of an individualistic approach to evaluating outrage effects. In addition, the practical implications of comparing salient and influential outrage factors for both risks were addressed in terms of risk communication.}, }
@article {pmid31480473, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, L and Jing, Z and Li, Z and Liu, Y and Fang, S}, title = {Predictive Modeling of Suitable Habitats for Cinnamomum Camphora (L.) Presl Using Maxent Model under Climate Change in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {17}, pages = {}, pmid = {31480473}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Cinnamomum camphora ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forests ; Geography ; Greenhouse Gases ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Rapid changes in global climate exert tremendous pressure on forest ecosystems. Cinnamomum camphora (L.) Presl is a multi-functional tree species, and its distribution and growth are also affected by climate warming. In order to realize its economic value and ecological function, it is necessary to explore the impact of climate change on its suitable habitats under different scenarios. In this experiment, 181 geographical distribution data were collected, and the MaxEnt algorithm was used to predict the distribution of suitable habitats. To complete the simulation, we selected two greenhouse gas release scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and also three future time periods, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s. The importance of environmental variables for modeling was evaluated by jackknife test. Our study found that accumulated temperature played a key role in the distribution of camphor trees. With the change of climate, the area of suitable range will increase and continue to move to the northwest of China. These findings could provide guidance for the plantation establishment and resource protection of camphor in China.}, }
@article {pmid31479906, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, D and Cui, B and Duan, S and Chen, J and Fan, H and Lu, B and Zheng, J}, title = {Moving north in China: The habitat of Pedicularis kansuensis in the context of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {697}, number = {}, pages = {133979}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133979}, pmid = {31479906}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Entropy ; Pedicularis/*physiology ; Poaceae ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Pedicularis kansuensis is a poisonous grass and a semi-parasitic plant that has spread rapidly in alpine grasslands in recent years and caused great harm to animal husbandry and the ecological environment. However, little is known about the habitat of P. kansuensis and the key environmental factors that influence its expansion. We assessed the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of P. kansuensis in China under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and MigClim for the years 2050 and 2070 and examined key environmental factors affecting P. kansuensis distribution. In total, 118 occurrence points and fourteen selected variables were used for the modeling. The models developed for P. kansuensis showed excellent performance (AUC > 0.9 and TSS > 0.90). The results were as follows. 1) The occupied habitats for P. kansuensis in the four climate scenarios were generally offset in the northward direction. 2) The most important environmental variables influencing the spread of P. kansuensis were altitude, annual precipitation, annual temperature range, precipitation in the warmest quarter and ultraviolet-B radiation seasonality (UVB-2). 3) Under RCP 2.6, the occupied habitat would be increased 0.04% by 2050 and would be increased to 0.51% by 2070. Under RCP 8.5, the average occupied habitat was predicted to increase 0.07% by 2050 and increase to 0.53% by 2070. The increase was relatively higher in the occupied habitats located in the southwestern regions (Sichuan, Xizang and Yunnan) than those in the northwestern regions (Gansu and Xinjiang).}, }
@article {pmid31479899, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, C and Huang, Y and Javed, A and Arhonditsis, GB}, title = {An ensemble modeling framework to study the effects of climate change on the trophic state of shallow reservoirs.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {697}, number = {}, pages = {134078}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134078}, pmid = {31479899}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Our understanding of the potential impact of climatic change on catchment hydrology and aquatic system dynamics has been advanced over the past decade, but there are still considerable knowledge gaps with respect to its effects on water quality vis-à-vis the increasing demands for drinking water. In this study, we developed an integrated hydrological-water quality (SWAT-YRWQM) model to elucidate the effects of a changing climate on the trophic state of the shallow Yuqiao Reservoir. Using a two-step downscaling process, we reproduced the prevailing meteorological conditions, as well as the streamflows in three major tributaries of the study area. A sensitivity analysis exercise showed that the nature of the calibration dataset used, namely the range of flows (i.e., dry versus wet years) included, can profoundly influence the predictive power of our modeling framework. Our climatic scenarios projected a minor change of the streamflow rates, but a variant degree of increase of the riverine total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and associated loading rates into the reservoir. Consequently, a significant rise of in-lake TP concentrations is projected for the near (2016-2030) and distant (2031-2050) future compared to the reference (2006-2015) conditions. Interestingly, the ambient TP levels appear to be lower in the distant relative to the near future, owing to changes in the magnitude and relative contribution of both external and internal nutrient loading sources. Our analysis also highlights the importance of reservoir operation practices to regulate water levels as a means for mitigating the climate change impact on the trophic status of the Yuqiao Reservoir, given that the diversion of low-nutrient water from the upstream basin can significantly reduce (30-40%) the TP concentrations. Our findings are highly relevant to the on-going debate about the potential implications of climate change for water availability, highlighting the importance of adaptation strategies to optimize the water resources management.}, }
@article {pmid31478173, year = {2019}, author = {Hussain, M and Butt, AR and Uzma, F and Ahmed, R and Rehman, A and Ali, MU and Ullah, H and Yousaf, B}, title = {Divisional disparities on climate change adaptation and mitigation in Punjab, Pakistan: local perceptions, vulnerabilities, and policy implications.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {30}, pages = {31491-31507}, pmid = {31478173}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {41672144//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; WK2080000103//Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities/ ; 2018FYB0002//CAS-Young Scientist Award/ ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Environmental Policy ; Floods ; Geography ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Pakistan ; Waste Management ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global challenge faced by everyone, but the developing countries are highly vulnerable to variations in the environment. This research focuses on the Punjab province of Pakistan and evaluates the impacts and consequences of climate change on general public at local and divisional level. In order to cope with the impacts of climatic changes at all levels, especially divisional level, raising reliable awareness and dispersing actionable knowledge regarding mitigating and adapting measures is significantly important. Therefore, recognition of information gaps, improvements in the level of alertness, and development of preventive measures in each sector is imperative. The impacts of climate change are observed across the country through gradual increase in temperature, human health issues, pest diseases, droughts, floods, and irregular weather patterns leading to changes in lifestyles, and these issues are likely to continue in the future. The main cause of climate change in Punjab, Pakistan, can be attributed to excessive release of greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere due to human activities involving inefficient energy usage, rapid urban expansion, improper waste management, industrial development, increasing transportation, agricultural activities, and livestock mismanagement. The findings of this study revealed that transportation sector is the major source of GHG emissions in the country, followed by industrialization and waste, at national, as well as divisional, level. The extent of impacts of climate change at divisional level is distinguishable and displayed a direct relationship with climate, geography, variation of effects, and modes of production in various regions of Punjab. The study strategically investigated all nine divisions of the province for comprehensive understanding of climate change phenomenon, and the results indicated that nearly three-fourths of the respondents have never indulged in taking steps towards climate change mitigation and adaptation. The study adopted a mixed (qualitative and quantitative) approach where the findings can act as set of guidelines for governmental authorities in formulating, assisting in preparation, instructing, and guiding policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation at national, local, and divisional levels. Graphical abstract.}, }
@article {pmid31477849, year = {2019}, author = {Troia, MJ and Kaz, AL and Niemeyer, JC and Giam, X}, title = {Species traits and reduced habitat suitability limit efficacy of climate change refugia in streams.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {1321-1330}, pmid = {31477849}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Refugium ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Climate change vulnerability depends on whether organisms can disperse rapidly enough to keep pace with shifting temperatures and find suitable habitat along the way. Here, we develop a method to examine where and for which species shifting isotherms will outpace species dispersal using stream networks of the southern Appalachian Mountains (United States) and their highly speciose and endemic fish fauna as a model system. By exploring alternative tributary and mainstem dispersal pathways, we identify tributaries as slow-climate-velocity pathways along which some fish can successfully disperse and thus keep pace with climate change. Despite accessibility and thermal suitability, non-temperature habitat conditions in tributaries are unsuitable for some dispersing species, thus probably precluding establishment of persistent populations. Our findings demonstrate a trade-off shaping the efficacy of thermal refugia that depends on species-specific habitat associations and reveal individual-level dispersal behaviour, body size and stream network geometry as general correlates of climate change vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid31475774, year = {2019}, author = {Tombre, IM and Oudman, T and Shimmings, P and Griffin, L and Prop, J}, title = {Northward range expansion in spring-staging barnacle geese is a response to climate change and population growth, mediated by individual experience.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {11}, pages = {3680-3693}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14793}, pmid = {31475774}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Climate Change ; *Geese ; Norway ; Population Growth ; Seasons ; *Thoracica ; }, abstract = {All long-distance migrants must cope with changing environments, but species differ greatly in how they do so. In some species, individuals might be able to adjust by learning from individual experiences and by copying others. This could greatly speed up the process of adjustment, but evidence from the wild is scarce. Here, we investigated the processes by which a rapidly growing population of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) responded to strong environmental changes on spring-staging areas in Norway. One area, Helgeland, has been the traditional site. Since the mid-1990s, an increasing number of geese stage in another area 250 km further north, Vesterålen. We collected data on goose numbers and weather conditions from 1975 to 2017 to explore the extent to which the increase in population size and a warmer climate contributed to this change in staging area use. During the study period, the estimated onset of grass growth advanced on average by 0.54 days/year in each of the two areas. The total production of digestible biomass for barnacle geese during the staging period increased in Vesterålen but remained stable in Helgeland. The goose population has doubled in size during the past 25 years, with most of the growth being accommodated in Vesterålen. The observations suggest that this dramatic increase would not have happened without higher temperatures in Vesterålen. Records of individually marked geese indicate that from the initial years of colonization onwards, especially young geese tended to switch to Vesterålen, thereby predominating in the flocks at Vesterålen. Older birds had a lower probability of switching to Vesterålen, but over the years, the probability increased for all ages. Our findings suggest that barnacle geese integrate socially learned behaviour with adjustments to individual experiences, allowing the population to respond rapidly and accurately to global change.}, }
@article {pmid31475018, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmed, S and Griffin, TS and Kraner, D and Schaffner, MK and Sharma, D and Hazel, M and Leitch, AR and Orians, CM and Han, W and Stepp, JR and Robbat, A and Matyas, C and Long, C and Xue, D and Houser, RF and Cash, SB}, title = {Environmental Factors Variably Impact Tea Secondary Metabolites in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {939}, pmid = {31475018}, issn = {1664-462X}, support = {K12 GM074869/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is impacting food and beverage crops around the world with implications for environmental and human well-being. While numerous studies have examined climate change effects on crop yields, relatively few studies have examined effects on crop quality (concentrations of nutrients, minerals, and secondary metabolites). This review article employs a culturally relevant beverage crop, tea (Camelia sinensis), as a lens to examine environmental effects linked to climate change on the directionality of crop quality. Our systematic review identified 86 articles as relevant to the review question. Findings provide evidence that shifts in seasonality, water stress, geography, light factors, altitude, herbivory and microbes, temperature, and soil factors that are linked to climate change can result in both increases and decreases up to 50% in secondary metabolites. A gap was found regarding evidence on the direct effects of carbon dioxide on tea quality, highlighting a critical research area for future study. While this systematic review provides evidence that multiple environmental parameters are impacting tea quality, the directionality and magnitude of these impacts is not clear with contradictory evidence between studies likely due to confounding factors including variation in tea variety, cultivar, specific environmental and agricultural management conditions, and differences in research methods. The environmental factors with the most consistent evidence in this systematic review were seasonality and water stress with 14 out of 18 studies (78%) demonstrating a decrease in concentrations of phenolic compounds or their bioactivity with a seasonal shift from the spring and /or first tea harvest to other seasons and seven out of 10 studies (70%) showing an increase in levels of phenolic compounds or their bioactivity with drought stress. Herbivory and soil fertility were two of the variables that showed the greatest contradictory evidence on tea quality. Both herbivory and soil fertility are variables which farmers have the greatest control over, pointing to the importance of agricultural management for climate mitigation and adaptation. The development of evidence-based management strategies and crop breeding programs for resilient cultivars are called for to mitigate climate impacts on crop quality and overall risk in agricultural and food systems.}, }
@article {pmid31474532, year = {2019}, author = {Froehlich, HE and Afflerbach, JC and Frazier, M and Halpern, BS}, title = {Blue Growth Potential to Mitigate Climate Change through Seaweed Offsetting.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {18}, pages = {3087-3093.e3}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.07.041}, pmid = {31474532}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Aquaculture/*methods ; Carbon ; Carbon Sequestration/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Seaweed/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Carbon offsetting-receiving credit for reducing, avoiding, or sequestering carbon-has become part of the portfolio of solutions to mitigate carbon emissions, and thus climate change, through policy and voluntary markets, primarily by land-based re- or afforestation and preservation [1, 2]. However, land is limiting, creating interest in a rapidly growing aquatic farming sector of seaweed aquaculture [3-5]. Synthesizing data from scientific literature, we assess the extent and cost of scaling seaweed aquaculture to provide sufficient CO2eq sequestration for several climate change mitigation scenarios, with a focus on the food sector-a major source of greenhouse gases [6]. Given known ecological constraints (nutrients and temperature), we found a substantial suitable area (ca. 48 million km[2]) for seaweed farming, which is largely unfarmed. Within its own industry, seaweed could create a carbon-neutral aquaculture sector with just 14% (mean = 25%) of current seaweed production (0.001% of suitable area). At a much larger scale, we find seaweed culturing extremely unlikely to offset global agriculture, in part due to production growth and cost constraints. Yet offsetting agriculture appears more feasible at a regional level, especially areas with strong climate policy, such as California (0.065% of suitable area). Importantly, seaweed farming can provide other benefits to coastlines affected by eutrophic, hypoxic, and/or acidic conditions [7, 8], creating opportunities for seaweed farming to act as "charismatic carbon" that serves multiple purposes. Seaweed offsetting is not the sole solution to climate change, but it provides an invaluable new tool for a more sustainable future.}, }
@article {pmid31469634, year = {2019}, author = {Loughlin, KR}, title = {Global warming: the implications for urologic disease.}, journal = {The Canadian journal of urology}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {9806-9808}, pmid = {31469634}, issn = {1195-9479}, mesh = {*Climate ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Risk Assessment ; United States ; Urologic Diseases/*epidemiology/*physiopathology ; }, abstract = {Global warming is receiving more attention in both the lay and scientific press. However, many individuals still view global warming as an abstract, distant concern that has little, if any, impact on their daily lives. As urologists, it is important to realize that global warming may influence some of the diseases that we treat. Much of the scientific basis for the link between climate and urologic disease is still in its nascent stages. However, a review of the emerging literature suggests that climatic changes may well alter the frequency of some urologic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid31467289, year = {2019}, author = {Petersen, AM and Vincent, EM and Westerling, AL}, title = {Author Correction: Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3966}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-12061-4}, pmid = {31467289}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid31467005, year = {2019}, author = {Danczak, A}, title = {Climate change emergency.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {69}, number = {686}, pages = {430}, pmid = {31467005}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid31465580, year = {2019}, author = {Trugman, AT and Anderegg, LDL and Sperry, JS and Wang, Y and Venturas, M and Anderegg, WRL}, title = {Leveraging plant hydraulics to yield predictive and dynamic plant leaf allocation in vegetation models with climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {12}, pages = {4008-4021}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14814}, pmid = {31465580}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2018-67012-28020//USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; 2018-67019-27850//USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture/ ; //David and Lucille Packard Foundation/ ; 1714972//National Science Foundation/ ; 1802880//National Science Foundation/ ; DBI-1711243//National Science Foundation/ ; //National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ ; //Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Programme/ ; //Ecosystem Services and Agro-Ecosystem Management/ ; }, mesh = {Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plant Leaves ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Plant functional traits provide a link in process-based vegetation models between plant-level physiology and ecosystem-level responses. Recent advances in physiological understanding and computational efficiency have allowed for the incorporation of plant hydraulic processes in large-scale vegetation models. However, a more mechanistic representation of water limitation that determines ecosystem responses to plant water stress necessitates a re-evaluation of trait-based constraints for plant carbon allocation, particularly allocation to leaf area. In this review, we examine model representations of plant allocation to leaves, which is often empirically set by plant functional type-specific allometric relationships. We analyze the evolution of the representation of leaf allocation in models of different scales and complexities. We show the impacts of leaf allocation strategy on plant carbon uptake in the context of recent advancements in modeling hydraulic processes. Finally, we posit that deriving allometry from first principles using mechanistic hydraulic processes is possible and should become standard practice, rather than using prescribed allometries. The representation of allocation as an emergent property of scarce resource constraints is likely to be critical to representing how global change processes impact future ecosystem dynamics and carbon fluxes and may reduce the number of poorly constrained parameters in vegetation models.}, }
@article {pmid31460735, year = {2019}, author = {Michelot, A}, title = {[Chapter 1. Climate justice: addressing the responsibility for climate change.].}, journal = {Journal international de bioethique et d'ethique des sciences}, volume = {Vol. 30}, number = {2}, pages = {17-39}, doi = {10.3917/jibes.302.0017}, pmid = {31460735}, issn = {2608-1008}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Social Justice ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Chapter 1. Climate justice: addressing the responsibility for climate changeAt the heart of climate justice is research and understanding of the inequalities associated with global warming. By seeking to address all dimensions of vulnerability to climate change, particularly social vulnerability, the concept of climate justice contributes to developing our responsibility to address the climate emergency. However, in an operational approach, climate justice has several approaches depending on who is interested and claims it. From the climate justice demanded to repair an ecological debt, to climate justice as a principle of action recognized and implemented in public policies, many perspectives are emerging to think of a development model that is more united and respectful of the rights of everyone, including the most vulnerable and the most deprived.}, }
@article {pmid31454933, year = {2019}, author = {Smith, CJ}, title = {Pediatric Thermoregulation: Considerations in the Face of Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Nutrients}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {31454933}, issn = {2072-6643}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Adolescent Development ; Age Factors ; *Body Temperature Regulation ; Child ; *Child Development ; Child, Preschool ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; *Global Health ; *Global Warming ; Health Status ; Heat Stress Disorders/diagnosis/epidemiology/*physiopathology ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Predicted global climate change, including rising average temperatures, increasing airborne pollution, and ultraviolet radiation exposure, presents multiple environmental stressors contributing to increased morbidity and mortality. Extreme temperatures and more frequent and severe heat events will increase the risk of heat-related illness and associated complications in vulnerable populations, including infants and children. Historically, children have been viewed to possess inferior thermoregulatory capabilities, owing to lower sweat rates and higher core temperature responses compared to adults. Accumulating evidence counters this notion, with limited child-adult differences in thermoregulation evident during mild and moderate heat exposure, with increased risk of heat illness only at environmental extremes. In the context of predicted global climate change, extreme environmental temperatures will be encountered more frequently, placing children at increased risk. Thermoregulatory and overall physiological strain in high temperatures may be further exacerbated by exposure to/presence of physiological and environmental stressors including pollution, ultraviolet radiation, obesity, diabetes, associated comorbidities, and polypharmacy that are more commonly occurring at younger ages. The aim of this review is to revisit fundamental differences in child-adult thermoregulation in the face of these multifaceted climate challenges, address emerging concerns, and emphasize risk reduction strategies for the health and performance of children in the heat.}, }
@article {pmid31454625, year = {2019}, author = {Jactel, H and Koricheva, J and Castagneyrol, B}, title = {Responses of forest insect pests to climate change: not so simple.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {103-108}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.07.010}, pmid = {31454625}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Herbivory ; Insecta/*physiology ; Trees/parasitology/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a multi-faceted phenomenon, including elevated CO2, warmer temperatures, more severe droughts and more frequent storms. All these components can affect forest pests directly, or indirectly through interactions with host trees and natural enemies. Most of the responses of forest insect herbivores to climate change are expected to be positive, with shorter generation time, higher fecundity and survival, leading to increased range expansion and outbreaks. Forest insect pest can also benefit from synergistic effects of several climate change pressures, such as hotter droughts or warmer storms. However, lesser known negative effects are also likely, such as lethal effects of heat waves or thermal shocks, less palatable host tissues or more abundant parasitoids and predators. The complex interplay between abiotic stressors, host trees, insect herbivores and their natural enemies makes it very difficult to predict overall consequences of climate change on forest health. This calls for the development of process-based models to simulate pest population dynamics under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid31454397, year = {2019}, author = {Bradshaw, CD and Hemming, D and Baker, R and Everatt, M and Eyre, D and Korycinska, A}, title = {A novel approach for exploring climatic factors limiting current pest distributions: A case study of Bemisia tabaci in north-west Europe and assessment of potential future establishment in the United Kingdom under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {e0221057}, pmid = {31454397}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/*parasitology ; Europe ; France ; Hemiptera/pathogenicity/*physiology ; Humans ; *Pest Control ; Seasons ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Bemisia tabaci (the tobacco whitefly) is an important agricultural pest of global significance primarily because of its ability to transmit multiple damaging plant viruses. To date, UK outbreaks of the whitefly have been restricted to glasshouses and there are no records of the whitefly establishing outdoors during the summer. This is despite the fact that annual degree-day models (that estimate accumulated warmth over the year above the development threshold), indicate that B. tabaci has the thermal potential for multiple summer generations in the UK. A set of 49 climate indices calculated using the present day climate (1986-2015) were therefore compared between the UK and the south of France, where B. tabaci is able to establish outdoors, to identify the factors limiting its establishment. The number of cold days and nights in summer, as well as the time spent within the whitefly's optimum temperature range, were most significantly different between the two areas. These indices may impact the development of B. tabaci and offer an explanation for the absence of the whitefly outdoors in the UK during the summer. Further analyses undertaken with climate projections suggest that in a 2-4°C warmer world this pest could pose a risk to outdoor UK crops in July and August. A clear south-north gradient can be demonstrated for these indices. Linking any possible northwards spread of B. tabaci populations outdoors in France with changes in these indices could therefore provide an important indicator of any change in the risks of outdoor populations of this species developing in the UK. The effectiveness of climate indices in pest risk analysis is compellingly demonstrated, and it is recommended that in-depth comparisons of climatic indices between areas of pest presence and absence are conducted in other situations where forecasting the risks of pest establishment are complex and challenging.}, }
@article {pmid31445412, year = {2019}, author = {Boukal, DS and Bideault, A and Carreira, BM and Sentis, A}, title = {Species interactions under climate change: connecting kinetic effects of temperature on individuals to community dynamics.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {88-95}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.06.014}, pmid = {31445412}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Insecta/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Human-induced climate change, dominated by warming trends, poses a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Species interactions relay the direct and indirect effects of climate warming on individuals to communities, and detailed understanding across these levels is crucial to predict ecological consequences of climate change. We provide a conceptual framework that links temperature effects on insect physiology and behaviour to altered species interactions and community dynamics. We highlight key features of this framework with recent studies investigating the impacts of warming climate on insects and other ectotherms and identify methodological, taxonomic and geographic biases. While the effects of increased constant temperatures are now well understood, future studies should focus on temperature variation, interactions with other stressors and cross-system comparisons.}, }
@article {pmid31441014, year = {2019}, author = {Flower, H and Rains, M and Carl Fitz, H and Orem, W and Newman, S and Osborne, TZ and Ramesh Reddy, K and Obeysekera, J}, title = {Shifting Ground: Landscape-Scale Modeling of Biogeochemical Processes under Climate Change in the Florida Everglades.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {64}, number = {4}, pages = {416-435}, pmid = {31441014}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Florida ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Scenarios modeling can be a useful tool to plan for climate change. In this study, we help Everglades restoration planning to bolster climate change resiliency by simulating plausible ecosystem responses to three climate change scenarios: a Baseline scenario of 2010 climate, and two scenarios that both included 1.5 °C warming and 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and differed only by rainfall: either increase or decrease by 10%. In conjunction with output from a water-use management model, we used these scenarios to drive the Everglades Landscape Model to simulate changes in a suite of parameters that include both hydrologic drivers and changes to soil pattern and process. In this paper we focus on the freshwater wetlands; sea level rise is specifically addressed in prior work. The decreased rainfall scenario produced marked changes across the system in comparison to the Baseline scenario. Most notably, muck fire risk was elevated for 49% of the period of simulation in one of the three indicator regions. Surface water flow velocity slowed drastically across most of the system, which may impair soil processes related to maintaining landscape patterning. Due to lower flow volumes, this scenario produced decreases in parameters related to flow-loading, such as phosphorus accumulation in the soil, and methylmercury production risk. The increased rainfall scenario was hydrologically similar to the Baseline scenario due to existing water management rules. A key change was phosphorus accumulation in the soil, an effect of flow-loading due to higher inflow from water control structures in this scenario.}, }
@article {pmid31440182, year = {2019}, author = {Bains, KK and Turnbull, T}, title = {Improving Health Outcomes and Serving Wider Society: The Potential Role of Understanding and Cultivating Prosocial Purpose Within Health Psychology Research and Practice to Address Climate Change and Social Isolation and Loneliness.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1787}, pmid = {31440182}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Human beings face unprecedented social and environmental challenges which require collective action and changes in health-related behavior. The threat of climate change is becoming an increasingly urgent issue for humanity and the natural environment. Alongside this, there is evidence that loneliness and social isolation can significantly impact cardiovascular health and mortality through direct and indirect processes, for example by increasing risky behaviors. However, one construct that has so far received little attention in health psychology is that of purpose. Purpose is thought to be self-regulatory; it derives from a greater sense of meaning yet is goal-directed and involves a stable and generalized intention toward accomplishment. The development of a sense of purpose is associated with improved mental and physical health. However, it is possible that one facet of purpose, prosocial orientation, may have a particularly beneficial effect on psychological well-being, increasing generativity and personal growth. Prosocial purpose may also help explain the growth in the number of people in the West who are reducing their meat and dairy intake, which may help mitigate climate change. It may also help explain the rise of civic engagement in environmental volunteering and support for conservation amongst some individuals and communities, which can also confer additional health benefits. Cultivating prosocial purpose may aid engagement in behavior change initiatives which may improve individual health and help address these wider social challenges, such as changing one's diet to help address climate change, volunteering and engaging in physical activity outdoors to support the environment, and supporting active engagement with vulnerable groups at risk of social isolation and loneliness. Cultivating prosocial purpose may also support self-advocacy for social changes which can benefit community health. It may be possible to cultivate prosocial purpose through interventions which involve experiential and abstract learning experiences that increase empathy, stimulate reflection and lead to meaning-making processes. This may then facilitate development of a sense of prosocial purpose because meaning-making is thought to be a precursor to purpose development. Doing so may be important to engage populations in efforts to combat climate change and address social isolation and loneliness.}, }
@article {pmid31439853, year = {2019}, author = {Marsooli, R and Lin, N and Emanuel, K and Feng, K}, title = {Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3785}, pmid = {31439853}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {One of the most destructive natural hazards, tropical cyclone (TC)-induced coastal flooding, will worsen under climate change. Here we conduct climatology-hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the effects of sea level rise (SLR) and TC climatology change (under RCP 8.5) on late 21st century flood hazards at the county level along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. We find that, under the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change, the historical 100-year flood level would occur annually in New England and mid-Atlantic regions and every 1-30 years in southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions in the late 21st century. The relative effect of TC climatology change increases continuously from New England, mid-Atlantic, southeast Atlantic, to the Gulf of Mexico, and the effect of TC climatology change is likely to be larger than the effect of SLR for over 40% of coastal counties in the Gulf of Mexico.}, }
@article {pmid31439311, year = {2019}, author = {Hobbhahn, N and Fears, R and Haines, A and Ter Meulen, V}, title = {Urgent action is needed to protect human health from the increasing effects of climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {8}, pages = {e333-e335}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30114-7}, pmid = {31439311}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid31438984, year = {2019}, author = {Barteit, S and Sié, A and Yé, M and Depoux, A and Louis, VR and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Lessons learned on teaching a global audience with massive open online courses (MOOCs) on health impacts of climate change: a commentary.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {52}, pmid = {31438984}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Education, Distance ; Environmental Health/*education ; Global Health/*education ; Humans ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The adverse health impacts of climate change are increasing on a global level. However, knowledge about climate change and health is still unavailable to many global citizens, in particular on adaptation measures and co-benefits of health mitigation. Educational technologies, such as massive open online courses (MOOCs), may have a high potential for providing access to information about climate change links to health for a global audience.<br><br>MAIN BODY: We developed three MOOCs addressing the link between climate change and health to take advantage of the methodology's broad reach and accelerate knowledge dissemination on the nexus of climate change and health. The primary objective was to translate an existing face-to-face short course that only reached a few participants on climate change and health into globally accessible learning opportunities. In the following, we share and comment on our lessons learned with the three MOOCs, with a focus on global teaching in the realm of climate change and health.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the three MOOCs attracted a global audience with diverse educational backgrounds, and a large number of participants from low-income countries. Our experience highlights that MOOCs may play a part in global capacity building, potentially for other health-related topics as well, as we have found that our MOOCs have attracted participants within low-resource contexts. MOOCs may be an effective method for teaching and training global students on health topics, in this case on the complex links and dynamics between climate change and health and may further act as an enabler for equitable access to quality education.}, }
@article {pmid31436438, year = {2020}, author = {Bandura, A and Cherry, L}, title = {Enlisting the power of youth for climate change.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {75}, number = {7}, pages = {945-951}, doi = {10.1037/amp0000512}, pmid = {31436438}, issn = {1935-990X}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Political Activism ; *Power, Psychological ; *Psychological Theory ; *Self Efficacy ; United Nations ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Despite efforts by the adult generation to stem the rise of global warming, the planet is getting hotter every year. The present article analyzes, within the framework of social-cognitive theory, highly resourceful youth conducting environmental programs that curtail heat-trapping gases and protect various ecological supports of life. The children's intuitive principles of change closely matched the formal principles of social-cognitive theory. Social media equip youth with unlimited reach and promote large-scale environmental impact. Their ingenious practices provide the foundation for a powerful youth environmental movement. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).}, }
@article {pmid31436007, year = {2020}, author = {Layton-Matthews, K and Hansen, BB and Grøtan, V and Fuglei, E and Loonen, MJJE}, title = {Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {642-657}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14773}, pmid = {31436007}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {276080//Research Council of Norway/International ; 244647//Research Council of Norway/International ; 273451//Research Council of Norway/International ; 223257//Research Council of Norway/International ; //Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/International ; //EU/International ; //Organization for Scientific Research NWO/International ; //Ministry of Foreign Affairs/International ; 851.40.071//BIRDHEALTH/International ; 866.12.407//Geese on Arctic Tundra/International ; //Norwegian Polar Institute/International ; //University of Groningen/International ; }, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Geese ; Norway ; Seasons ; Svalbard ; }, abstract = {Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population-dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non-hunted population of high-arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual-based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age-specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green-up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non-breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density-dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density-dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population-dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.}, }
@article {pmid31435996, year = {2019}, author = {Hansen, BB and Pedersen, &#xc5;&#xd8; and Peeters, B and Le Moullec, M and Albon, SD and Herfindal, I and Saether, BE and Grøtan, V and Aanes, R}, title = {Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long-term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {11}, pages = {3656-3668}, pmid = {31435996}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Population Dynamics ; *Reindeer ; Seasons ; Snow ; Svalbard ; }, abstract = {The 'Moran effect' predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large-scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high-Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8-324 km apart suggested that density-dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one 'continental' reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density-dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift-with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity-led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.}, }
@article {pmid31435061, year = {2019}, author = {Rumpel, C}, title = {Soils linked to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {572}, number = {7770}, pages = {442-443}, pmid = {31435061}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Soil ; Taiga ; *Wildfires ; }, }
@article {pmid31434201, year = {2019}, author = {Jeong, MC and Kim, J}, title = {Prediction and Analysis of Electrical Accidents and Risk Due to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {16}, pages = {}, pmid = {31434201}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Accidents ; Climate Change ; *Electrical Equipment and Supplies ; Electricity ; *Fires ; Forecasting ; *Global Warming ; Reproducibility of Results ; Risk Assessment ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The industrial development and the increase in the use of fossil fuels have been accelerating global warming and climate change, thereby causing more frequent and intense natural disasters than ever before. Since electrical facilities are generally installed outdoors, they are greatly affected by natural disasters, thus accidents related to electrical equipment has been on the rise. In this paper, we present the risk rating associated with climate change by analyzing the statistics of electrical fires, electric shock accidents and electrical equipment accidents caused by domestic climate change. Further, we present a risk rating analysis model for electrical fires on a monthly basis through the data analysis of electrical hazards associated with various regional (metropolitan city) climatic conditions (temperature, humidity), and analyze the accident risk rating for natural disasters related to low and high voltage equipment. Through this risk analysis model for each region and type of equipment, we presented a basic prediction model for electrical hazards. Therefore, it is possible to provide electrical safety services in the future by displaying a risk prediction map of electrical hazards for each region and type of electrical equipment through web sites or smart phone apps using the presented analysis data. Further, efforts should be made to increase the robustness or reliability of electrical equipment in order to prevent electrical accidents caused by natural disasters due to climate change in advance.}, }
@article {pmid31433801, year = {2019}, author = {Lancker, K and Deppenmeier, AL and Demissie, T and Schmidt, JO}, title = {Climate change adaptation and the role of fuel subsidies: An empirical bio-economic modeling study for an artisanal open-access fishery.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {e0220433}, pmid = {31433801}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries/*economics ; Fishes ; *Models, Economic ; }, abstract = {Climate change can severely impact artisanal fisheries and affect the role they play in food security. We study climate change effects on the triple bottom line of ecological productivity, fishers' incomes, and fish consumption for an artisanal open-access fishery. We develop and apply an empirical, stochastic bio-economic model for the Senegalese artisanal purse seine fishery on small pelagic fish and compare the simulated fishery's development using four climate projections and two policy scenarios. We find that economic processes of adaptation may amplify the effects of climate variations. The regions' catch potential increases with climate change, induced by stock distribution changes. However, this outcome escalates over-fishing, whose effects outpace the incipiently favorable climate change effects under three of the four climate projections. Without policy action, the fishery is estimated to collapse in 2030-2035 on average over 1000 runs. We propose an easily implementable and overall welfare-increasing intervention: reduction of fuel subsidies. If fuel subsidies were abolished, ecological sustainability as well as the fishery's welfare contribution would increase regardless of the climate projection.}, }
@article {pmid31429783, year = {2019}, author = {DeLisi, C}, title = {The role of synthetic biology in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Biology direct}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {14}, pmid = {31429783}, issn = {1745-6150}, support = {not applicable//not applicable/International ; }, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Carbon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; Synthetic Biology/*methods ; }, abstract = {There is growing agreement that the aim of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, is not likely to be met without inclusion of methods to physically remove atmospheric carbon. A number of approaches have been suggested, but the community appears to be silent on the potential of one of the most revolutionary technologies of the current century, systems and synthetic biology (SSB). The potential of SSB to modulate the fast carbon cycle, and thereby mitigate climate change is in itself enormous, but if the history of genomics is any measure, it is also reasonable to expect sizeable economic returns on any investment. More generally, the approach to climate control has been badly unbalanced. The last three decades have seen intense international attention to emission control, with no parallel plan to test, scale and implement carbon removal technologies, including attention to their economic, legal and ethical implications. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Richard Roberts, Aristides Patrinos, and Eugene Koonin, all of whom were nominated by Itai Yanai. For the full reviews, please go to the Reviewers' comments section.}, }
@article {pmid31429469, year = {2020}, author = {Hanafi-Bojd, AA and Vatandoost, H and Yaghoobi-Ershadi, MR}, title = {Climate Change and the Risk of Malaria Transmission in Iran.}, journal = {Journal of medical entomology}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, pages = {50-64}, doi = {10.1093/jme/tjz131}, pmid = {31429469}, issn = {1938-2928}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Anopheles/*physiology ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Iran ; Malaria/transmission ; Models, Biological ; Mosquito Vectors/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an important factor affecting the dynamics of the vectors population and, hence, the risk of vector-borne diseases. This study aimed to predict the environmental suitability for malaria vectors in Iran under climate change scenarios in 2030s and 2050s. Literature search was performed to find documents on the spatial distribution of Anopheles stephensi Liston, 1901, Anopheles culicifacies s.l. Giles, 1901, Anopheles fluviatilis s.l. James, 1902, Anopheles superpictus s.l. Grassi, 1899, Anopheles dthali Patton, 1905, Anopheles maculipennis s.l. Meigen, 1818, and Anopheles sacharovi Favre, 1903 (Diptera: Culicidae) published between 1970 and 2017. The bioclimatic data under three climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathway 2.6 [RCP2.6], RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and MaxEnt model were used to predict the ecological niches for each species. Comparison between the two study periods under the three scenarios for each species revealed that RCP8.5 would reduce the area at risk for An. culicifacies s.l., An. dthali and An. superpictus s.l. in the 2050s compared to the 2030s, but the reverse will be induced by RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. For An. fluviatilis s.l., RCP2.6 will reduce the risk areas in the 2050s, whereas an increase is expected under the two other scenarios. Moreover, all scenarios would decrease the high-risk areas of An. maculipennis s.l. in the 2050s. For An. sacharovi, RCP2.6 would increase its high-risk areas, whereas RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would decrease its exposure. The high-risk area of An. stephensi is expected to increase under RCP8.5 in the 2030s and RCP4.5 in 2050s, but it will be almost unchanged or reduced under other scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid31427425, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, B and Demorest, S and Krzyzanowski, B}, title = {Mitigating a Nursing School's Impact on Climate Change: A Quality Improvement Project.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {e15-e24}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.e15}, pmid = {31427425}, issn = {1946-1895}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; *Organizational Objectives ; *Quality Improvement ; Schools, Nursing/*organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Mitigation is one approach to addressing climate change, which focuses on reducing carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions. Nurses play a critical role in mitigation to prevent the health impacts of climate change. Recommendations to mitigate climate change in higher education institutions reflect four themes: policy, people, process, and practice. This quality improvement project aimed to mitigate a metropolitan nursing school's impacts on climate change.<br><br>METHODS: A Sustainability Champion Workgroup was formed to address gaps identified in the organizational needs assessment. A No Waste November (NWN) campaign and a sustainability dashboard were created to engage participants and increase awareness about climate change and environmentally sustainable behaviors. A pre- and post-NWN survey, adapted from the Nurses' Environmental Awareness Tool, and waste disposal measurements over 6 weeks were used to assess the impact of these interventions.<br><br>RESULTS: The post-NWN survey showed the greatest increases in mean scores for the following environmentally sustainable behaviors: biking, walking, carpooling, or taking public transportation to work; leading or participating in recycling initiatives; serving on committees that purchase sustainable supplies; and composting. Waste disposal measurements revealed a higher proportion of recycling to landfill waste during 5 out of the 6 weeks of measurement.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Nurses and higher education institutions play an important role in mitigating the human impacts on climate change through environmental sustainability initiatives. Barriers to adopting environmentally sustainable behaviors and incentives to support these behaviors also need to be examined and addressed in future projects.}, }
@article {pmid31427424, year = {2019}, author = {Connerton, CS and Wooton, AK}, title = {Building Community Resilience to Mitigate Mental Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {e9-e14}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.e9}, pmid = {31427424}, issn = {1946-1895}, mesh = {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. ; *Climate Change ; Disaster Planning ; Disasters ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; *Nurse's Role ; *Public Health ; *Resilience, Psychological ; United States ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {As global warming is taking effect, the number of natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornados, flooding, drought, and wildfires is increasing. The purpose of this article is to address the impacts of climate change on human health, using a model developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The effects of natural disasters on mental health, and actions nurses can take to help build strong, resilient communities, are discussed in detail. Increasing awareness and building resilience will improve health outcomes. Strong social connections are a key component of community resilience. Strengthening the infrastructure of communities can mitigate the impact of climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid31427423, year = {2019}, author = {Wasco, JJ}, title = {Strategies for Teaching Online RN-to-BSN Students the Health Impacts of Climate Change.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {e1-e8}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.e1}, pmid = {31427423}, issn = {1946-1895}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Curriculum ; Education, Distance ; *Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate ; Environmental Health/*education ; Humans ; Pennsylvania ; Program Development ; Teaching ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on human health is projected to worsen over the next century, threatening the world's population. Nurses need to be knowledgeable about the causes of climate change and its direct and indirect health consequences, to be able to provide appropriate care and to advocate for policy change. More now than ever, nursing faculty are charged with the responsibility to educate future health professionals about this important topic. This article provides an introduction to the impacts of climate change on nursing care delivery and shares the pedagogy of an introductory course developed for an online, postlicensure RN-BSN program based at a university with deep roots in environmental sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid31427421, year = {2019}, author = {Chalupka, S and Anderko, L}, title = {Climate Change and Schools: Implications for Children's Health and Safety.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {249-257}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.249}, pmid = {31427421}, issn = {1946-1895}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; *Schools ; }, abstract = {The predicted impacts of climate change are fast becoming a reality and are already adversely affecting human health and health systems. Events such as flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires are challenging communities to re-evaluate whether their schools provide a safe, healthy environment. Among the populations most vulnerable to the impacts of our changing climate are our children. Nurses are key to supporting mitigation and adaptation efforts to promote more resilient school environments, using approaches based on values of the common good and social justice.}, }
@article {pmid31427416, year = {2019}, author = {Demorest, S and Spengeman, S and Schenk, E and Cook, C and Weston, HL}, title = {The Nurses Climate Challenge: A National Campaign to Engage 5,000 Health Professionals Around Climate Change.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {208-215}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.208}, pmid = {31427416}, issn = {1946-1895}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Education, Nursing/*trends ; Environmental Health/*education ; Humans ; Leadership ; *Nurse's Role ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses significant threats to human health and worsens existing inequities. The health sector is a significant contributor to climate change, making up approximately 10% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Yet most nurses do not learn about the health dangers of climate change in their education or in practice, and therefore are ill-equipped to lead action on climate change. When educated about climate change, nurses can effectively lead climate adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed at creating healthier populations. As the most trusted professionals and making up 40% of the health-care workforce, nurses have the potential to impact behavior change and launch a movement around climate solutions. Health Care Without Harm and the Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments partnered on the "Nurses Climate Challenge" with the aim of nurses educating 5,000 health professionals on climate and health. In the Nurses Climate Challenge, nurses register as Nurse Climate Champions and gain access to online resources to plan and host educational sessions about climate change. After educating, Nurse Climate Champions return to the online platform to track their progress. Within 10 months, over 540 Nurse Climate Champions from 6 continents, 16 countries, and 42 U.S. states registered for access to the resources. To date, the champions have educated over 5,250 colleagues and students about climate and health. Based on early metrics, this model of education and engagement around climate action may be applicable for other disciplines in health care and beyond.}, }
@article {pmid31427414, year = {2019}, author = {Morgan, RE}, title = {Determined Action to Tackle Health Determinants: A Collaborative Response to the Challenge of Climate Change Mitigation in Practice Settings.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {195-200}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.195}, pmid = {31427414}, issn = {1946-1895}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; Societies, Nursing ; }, abstract = {The physical environment has long been understood as a major determinant of health and well-being. In recent years, the relationship between health and the environment has become particularly pronounced, with the impacts of climate change identified as having the potential to reverse the last 50 years of public health advancement (Watts et al., 2015). Increasingly, professional bodies within health care are called upon to frame climate change as a health issue. Despite this, studies have found that nurses report feeling ill-equipped to respond to environmental changes and the resulting health impacts (Anåker, Nilsson, Holmner, &amp; Elf, 2015; Lewis, 2018; Polivka, Chaudry, &amp; Mac Crawford, 2011). This article recognizes some of the barriers facing concerned health-care professionals who wish to introduce climate mitigation activities within their sphere of professional operation. The Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation (Victorian Branch) was approached by nurses, midwives, and carers, to become more involved in policy debates surrounding climate change and to provide stronger support to members in responding to environmental issues. The result is top-down and bottom-up responses working in synergy for climate change mitigation, by empowering nurses to make changes to their professional practice.}, }
@article {pmid31427413, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {Building a Global Movement for Health: Nurse Leadership on Climate Change.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {191-194}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.25.3.191}, pmid = {31427413}, issn = {1946-1895}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Leadership ; Nurses/*psychology ; }, }
@article {pmid31427045, year = {2019}, author = {Sueur, J and Krause, B and Farina, A}, title = {Climate Change Is Breaking Earth's Beat.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {34}, number = {11}, pages = {971-973}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2019.07.014}, pmid = {31427045}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Earth, Planet ; Environment ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Forests, deserts, rivers, and oceans are filled with animal vocalizations and geological sounds. We postulate that climate change is changing the Earth's natural acoustic fabric. In particular, we identify shifts in acoustic structure that all sound-sensitive organisms, marine and terrestrial, may experience. Only upstream solutions might mitigate these acoustic changes.}, }
@article {pmid31425325, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {"How Can Climate Change Impact the Workplace and Worker Health?" Part 3: Air Pollution, Greenhouse Gases, and Cardiorespiratory Health.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {61}, number = {10}, pages = {e427-e428}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001694}, pmid = {31425325}, issn = {1536-5948}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology ; *Climate Change ; Efficiency ; Extreme Weather ; *Greenhouse Gases/adverse effects ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Occupational Health ; Ozone ; Particulate Matter ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/etiology ; Workplace ; }, }
@article {pmid31423312, year = {2019}, author = {Choi, F and Gouhier, T and Lima, F and Rilov, G and Seabra, R and Helmuth, B}, title = {Mapping physiology: biophysical mechanisms define scales of climate change impacts.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coz028}, pmid = {31423312}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {The rocky intertidal zone is a highly dynamic and thermally variable ecosystem, where the combined influences of solar radiation, air temperature and topography can lead to differences greater than 15°C over the scale of centimetres during aerial exposure at low tide. For most intertidal organisms this small-scale heterogeneity in microclimates can have enormous influences on survival and physiological performance. However, the potential ecological importance of environmental heterogeneity in determining ecological responses to climate change remains poorly understood. We present a novel framework for generating spatially explicit models of microclimate heterogeneity and patterns of thermal physiology among interacting organisms. We used drone photogrammetry to create a topographic map (digital elevation model) at a resolution of 2 × 2 cm from an intertidal site in Massachusetts, which was then fed into to a model of incident solar radiation based on sky view factor and solar position. These data were in turn used to drive a heat budget model that estimated hourly surface temperatures over the course of a year (2017). Body temperature layers were then converted to thermal performance layers for organisms, using thermal performance curves, creating 'physiological landscapes' that display spatially and temporally explicit patterns of 'microrefugia'. Our framework shows how non-linear interactions between these layers lead to predictions about organismal performance and survivorship that are distinct from those made using any individual layer (e.g. topography, temperature) alone. We propose a new metric for quantifying the 'thermal roughness' of a site (RqT, the root mean square of spatial deviations in temperature), which can be used to quantify spatial and temporal variability in temperature and performance at the site level. These methods facilitate an exploration of the role of micro-topographic variability in driving organismal vulnerability to environmental change using both spatially explicit and frequency-based approaches.}, }
@article {pmid31423035, year = {2019}, author = {Lickley, M and Cael, BB and Solomon, S}, title = {Time of Steady Climate Change.}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {46}, number = {10}, pages = {5445-5451}, pmid = {31423035}, issn = {0094-8276}, abstract = {Under an emission scenario where atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, previous work suggests that on centennial time scales the rate of global temperature increases would steady at significantly lower rates than those of the 21st century. As climate change is not globally uniform, regional differences in achieving this steady rate of warming can be expected. Here, we define a "Time of Steady Change" (TSC) as the time of reaching this steady rate of warming, and we present a method for estimating TSC with the use of General Circulation Model experiments run under greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. We find that TSC occurs latest in low latitudes and in the Arctic, despite these areas steadying at very different absolute warming rates. These broad patterns are robust across multiple General Circulation Model ensembles and alternative definitions of TSC. These results indicate large regional differences in the trajectory of climate change in coming centuries.}, }
@article {pmid31422880, year = {2019}, author = {Suggitt, AJ and Lister, DG and Thomas, CD}, title = {Widespread Effects of Climate Change on Local Plant Diversity.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {17}, pages = {2905-2911.e2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2019.06.079}, pmid = {31422880}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Plants ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Human activity has sent many measures of biodiversity into long-term decline, and there are suggestions that the sheer scale of this impact is sufficient to consider the modern era as a geological epoch of its own, known as "The Anthropocene" [1]. However, recent meta-analyses show that local alpha diversity is often stable or slightly increasing [2-4]. Here, we show that the local alpha diversity (species richness) of plants found in quadrats and transects has increased the most in cooler regions of the world that have experienced the highest absolute changes (i.e., changes in either direction) in climate. The greatest statistical support is for the effects of precipitation change. On average, alpha diversity declined slightly (-4.2% per decade) in the third of sites that experienced the lowest precipitation change but increased (+10.8% per decade) in the third of sites with the highest precipitation change. These results suggest that the "perturbation" of local communities during climatic transitions increases the average number of species, at least temporarily, an effect likely to remain important as climate change continues.}, }
@article {pmid31421561, year = {2019}, author = {Fastelli, P and Renzi, M}, title = {Exposure of key marine species to sunscreens: Changing ecotoxicity as a possible indirect effect of global warming.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {149}, number = {}, pages = {110517}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.110517}, pmid = {31421561}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Amphipoda/*drug effects ; Animals ; Diatoms/*drug effects/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Ecotoxicology ; Global Warming ; Paracentrotus/*drug effects/physiology ; Salinity ; Sunscreening Agents/*toxicity ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {Sunscreens can induce ecotoxicological effects and may cause significant impacts in the aquatic ecosystem. In spite of that, ecotoxicological responses of key marine species to sunscreens are scarcely studied in Mediterranean ecosystems, and literature data are lacking. Furthermore, changes in water salinity induced by global warming could significantly affect the ecotoxicological responses of marine species exposed to sunscreens. This research focuses on the evaluation of ecotoxicological responses of Phaeodactylum tricornutum (algae), Corophium orientalis (macroinvertebrate), and Paracentrotus lividus (echinoderms) exposed to sunscreens, which include both chemical- and physical-based. This study, also, analyzes the changes in ecotoxicological responses of the tested species linked to increase in salinity. Results showed that salinity stress significantly increases the toxicity of sunscreens on the tested marine species. Physical-based sunscreens resulted in more toxicity at higher salinity than chemical-based ones toward C. orientalis and P. tricornutum. This study evidenced that risk classifications of sunscreens recorded under standard salinity conditions could be significantly different from that recorded in the natural environment under salinity stress. The collection of a complete dataset on the ecotoxicological effects of sunscreens on marine species tested under salinity stress could be useful to correctly weigh risks for the marine environment under possible future ecological changing scenarios following the global changing driver.}, }
@article {pmid31421346, year = {2019}, author = {Küttim, M and Laine, AM and Küttim, L and Ilomets, M and Robroek, BJM}, title = {Winter climate change increases physiological stress in calcareous fen bryophytes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {695}, number = {}, pages = {133867}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133867}, pmid = {31421346}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Bryophyta/*physiology ; Chlorophyll/analogs &amp; derivatives ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Freezing ; Plants ; Seasons ; Snow ; Stress, Physiological/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Calcareous spring fens are among the rarest and most endangered wetland types worldwide. The majority of these ecosystems can be found at high latitudes, where they are affected by above average rates of climate change. Particularly winter temperatures are increasing, which results in decreased snow cover. As snow provides an insulating layer that protects ecosystems from subzero temperatures, its decrease is likely to induce stress to plants. To investigate the sensitivity of the bryophyte community - key to the functioning of calcareous spring fens - to changing climatic conditions, we studied the annual variation in ecophysiology of two dominant bryophytes: Campylium stellatum and Scorpidium scorpioides. Further, a snow removal experiment was used to simulate the effect of changing winter conditions. In both species, we observed lowest efficiency of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) in spring, indicating physiological stress, and highest chlorophyll-a, -b and carotenoid concentrations in autumn. Snow removal exacerbated physiological stress in bryophytes. Consequently Fv/Fm, pigment concentrations and chlorophyll to carotenoids ratios declined, while chlorophyll-a to -b ratios increased. Moreover, these effects of winter climate change cascaded to the growing season. C. stellatum, a low hummock inhabitor, suffered more from snow removal (annual mean decline in Fv/Fm 7.7% and 30.0% in chlorophyll-a) than S. scorpioides, a hollow species (declines 5.4% and 14.5%, respectively). Taken together, our results indicate that spring fen bryophytes are negatively impacted by winter climate change, as a result of longer frost periods and increased numbers of freeze-thaw cycles in combination with higher light intensity and dehydration.}, }
@article {pmid31419836, year = {2019}, author = {Rodríguez-González, A and Zanin, M and Menasalvas-Ruiz, E}, title = {Public Health and Epidemiology Informatics: Can Artificial Intelligence Help Future Global Challenges? An Overview of Antimicrobial Resistance and Impact of Climate Change in Disease Epidemiology.}, journal = {Yearbook of medical informatics}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {224-231}, pmid = {31419836}, issn = {2364-0502}, mesh = {Anti-Bacterial Agents ; *Artificial Intelligence ; *Climate Change ; *Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; *Epidemiology ; Humans ; Informatics ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To provide an oveiview of the current application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of public health and epidemiology, with a special focus on antimicrobial resistance and the impact of climate change in disease epidemiology. Both topics are of vital importance and were included in the "Ten threats to global health in 2019" report published by the World Health Organization.<br><br>METHODS: We analysed publications that appeared in the last two years, between January 2017 and October 2018. Papers were searched using Google Scholar with the following keywords: public health, epidemiology, machine learning, data analytics, artificial intelligence, disease surveillance, climate change, antimicrobial resistance, and combinations thereof. Selected articles were organised by theme.<br><br>RESULTS: In spite of a large interest in AI generated both within and outside the scientific community, and of the many opinions pointing towards the importance of a better use of data in public health, few papers have been published on the selected topics in the last two years. We identify several potential reasons, including the complexity of the integration of heterogeneous data, and the lack of sound and unbiased validation procedures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As there is a better comprehension of AI and more funding available, artificial intelligence will become not only the centre of attention in informatics, but more importantly the source of innovative solutions for public health.}, }
@article {pmid31419684, year = {2019}, author = {Kokkoris, IP and Bekri, ES and Skuras, D and Vlami, V and Zogaris, S and Maroulis, G and Dimopoulos, D and Dimopoulos, P}, title = {Integrating MAES implementation into protected area management under climate change: A fine-scale application in Greece.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {695}, number = {}, pages = {133530}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.336}, pmid = {31419684}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Increasing anthropogenic pressures often jeopardize ecosystem integrity and policy-relevant conservation management in protected areas. To harmonize nature conservation with human well-being, EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 suggests Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES) as the key concept for environmental planning and management in EU Member States. Applying this procedure is challenging due to its data-demanding and multidisciplinary nature, resulting in the ecoystem services (ES) approach being scarcely used in protected areas management. Increased data availability under EU biodiversity-related inventories and monitoring projects, as well as theoretical and empirical research advances developed during the last decade, should be put into practice to guide Member States towards local management frameworks and scenario building under the ongoing changes in the EU socio-economic environment. This study aims at filling this gap by embodying into the MAES operational framework a scenario-based approach and demonstrates this in a challenging case study of a Natura 2000 site, Lake Stymfalia, in Greece. The present management strategy, an ecological-friendly management practice, a water-efficient management practice and a non-environmentally friendly option (e.g. ecosystem destruction) are examined for current and future water demand under current and future climatic scenarios. The proposed methodological framework for ES operationalization is based on the available data (derived by EU Directives and/or modelling), expert judgment and stakeholder involvement. Therefore, this work applies and tests the importance of the MAES approach as a management and coordination platform.}, }
@article {pmid31418249, year = {2019}, author = {Jiang, LH and Gao, JQ and Wan, JZ}, title = {[Potential habitat and priority protection area of cranes with climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {2457-2469}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201907.040}, pmid = {31418249}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {To clarify the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of six crane species in the Great Xing'an Mountains region, and promote the effective protection of these species, we selected key environmental variables such as climate, topography, and vegetation type based on Pearson correlation and Jackknife analysis, and modeled the potential distribution of six crane species in the Great Xing'an Mountains using MaxEnt with the current and the future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We identified the priority protection areas (PPAs) and the target PPAs by zonation and ArcGIS. The results showed that with the current climate condition, the sui-table habitats of these species were mainly distributed in the central and the northwest part of the Great Xing'an Mountains. With RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the suitable habitats of Grus monacha, Grus japonensis, Grus vipio, Grus grus and Anthropoides virgo would decrease, while that of Grus leucogeranus would expand by 5.4%-6.3%. With current and the future climate change scenarios, the PPAs of these species were mainly distributed in the northwest, southeast and west-central parts of the Great Xing'an Mountains. The protect rate could reach about 20.1%-23.8% of the target PPAs conserved by protected areas (PAs). The protection gaps were mainly distributed in the west of Mohe County, the north-central of Ergun, the central and east of Genhe, the northeast of Yakeshi, and the south of Oroqen Autonomous Banner. We proposed to expand PAs to provide a strong guarantee for the effective protection of cranes species.}, }
@article {pmid31418225, year = {2019}, author = {Qiao, JJ and Wang, T and Pan, L and Sun, YJ}, title = {[Responses of radial growth to climate change in Pinus massoniana at different altitudes and slopes.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {2231-2240}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201907.011}, pmid = {31418225}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Pinus/*growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Trees ; }, abstract = {With dendrochronology method, standard and residual chronologies of Pinus massoniana were established at low altitude (260 m), middle altitude (460 m), high altitude (690 m), sunny slope (270 m), and shady slope (265 m). Relationships between the tree-ring width and the climatic factors were quantified using correlation analysis and redundancy analysis (RDA). The optimal multiple regression models for the radial growth of P. massoniana and the climatic factors were established. We analyzed the change rule of radial growth and its relationship with the climatic factors along with the altitude and slope. The results showed that the radial growth of P. massoniana was significantly affected by precipitation and temperature across the altitude gradient and the slope level, respectively. Among the 120 climatic variables, precipitation in December of last year and the extreme minimum temperature in February of current year had the most significant negative effects on the radial growth at different altitudes and slopes, respectively. This study quantitatively described the impacts of climate change on the radial growth of P. massoniana in the subtropical region, and provided a scientific basis for the planting and management of P. massoniana forest in Jiangle Country under the climate warming background.}, }
@article {pmid31418224, year = {2019}, author = {Han, JS and Zhao, HY and Zhu, LJ and Zhang, YD and Li, ZS and Wang, XC}, title = {[Comparing the responses of radial growth between Quercus mongolica and Phellodendron amurense to climate change in Xiaoxing'an Mountains, China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {2218-2230}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201907.012}, pmid = {31418224}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Phellodendron/*growth &amp; development ; Quercus/*growth &amp; development ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Quercus mongolica and Phellodendron amurense are two important broad-leaved species in temperate forests of Northeast China. It is critical to explore their responses to climate change for supporting management, protection, and restoration of the broad-leaved forest in Northeast China under the future climate change scenario. Three sampling sites along a longitude gradient, Heilun, Tieli and Yichun, were set up in the Xiaoxing'an Mountains. Dendrochronological methods were used to establish standard chronologies for Q. mongolica and P. amurense. Correlation analyses were conducted between these chronologies and local climatic factors to establish the spatial and temporal variations in growth-climate relationship of Q. mongolica and P. amurense. The results showed that the radial growth of P. amurense was sensitive to temperature, while that of Q. mongolica was limi-ted by both temperature and precipitation. The temperature sensitivities of these two species were different. High spring temperature inhibited the radial growth of Q. mongolica, but promoted that of P. amurense. The limiting effect of high maximum temperature in summer on radial growth of Q. mongolica was significantly higher than that of P. amurense. With the increases of longitude (water availability), the correlation coefficients between radial growth of Q. mongolica and precipitation gradually weakened, while P. amurense didn't change. The physiological characteristics of those tree species was the key factors affecting their growth-climate relationship. With the significant warming since the 1976, the growth trend of P. amurense increased, whilst that of Q. mongolica decreased. Deteriorated drought stress caused by warming and difference in the species' ability to cope with water deficits might be the main reasons for different responses of two species, and for the divergence phenomenon occurring for Q. mongolica. If warming continues or worsens in the future, the growth of Q. mongolica may decline due to the intensified drought stress, while that of P. amurense may be less affected or be slightly enhanced.}, }
@article {pmid31418212, year = {2019}, author = {Shao, JY and DU, JH and Li, SF and Huang, YX and Liang, WN and Liao, JQ}, title = {[Tree seedling distribution, regeneration mechanism and response to climate change in alpine treeline ecotone].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {2854-2864}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201908.007}, pmid = {31418212}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Seedlings ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Tree seedlings are one of the important components in alpine treeline ecotone, whose regeneration is crucial to treeline migration in response to climate change. We analyzed the spatial distribution, regeneration of tree seedlings and their responses to climate change in treeline ecotone in recent decades. The spatial distribution of tree seedlings in treeline ecotone is dominated by diffuse and clustered forms, with different indicative significance for spatial dynamics of treeline. At global scale, the altitude distribution limits of tree seedlings are usually related to the length and average temperature of growing season, along with the species characteristics. However, precipita-tion plays an important role at regional scale. The initial stage of seedling recruitment is restricted by seed source, which determines seed distribution and germination to a great extent. Microenvironment facilitates seedling regeneration by providing shelter for establishment and improving their survival rate. The regeneration process is more relevant to multiple biotic, abiotic factors and their interactions. With global warming, rising temperature in treeline ecotone and more precipitation are more suitable for seedling regeneration of treeline species. The expansion of seedlings to higher elevations could be considered as the portent of timberline upwards migration. Due to species-specific adaption strategy, however, some trees only increase seedling density and timberline location is constant. In the future, it is necessary to take precise dating techniques, such as tree-ring and [14]C dating, and conduct long-term in-situ monitoring and indoor simulation experiments. To provide scientific basis for mountain ecosystem restoration and conservation, we should strengthen the studies on spatial patterns and regeneration mechanism of seedlings in treeline ecotone at multiple spatio-temporal scales, the adaptation strategies of tree seedlings in different types of treeline ecotone and treeline dynamics prediction.}, }
@article {pmid31417619, year = {2019}, author = {Tillotson, MD and Barnett, HK and Bhuthimethee, M and Koehler, ME and Quinn, TP}, title = {Artificial selection on reproductive timing in hatchery salmon drives a phenological shift and potential maladaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {1344-1359}, pmid = {31417619}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {The timing of breeding migration and reproduction links generations and substantially influences individual fitness. In salmonid fishes, such phenological events (seasonal return to freshwater and spawning) vary among populations but are consistent among years, indicating local adaptation in these traits to prevailing environmental conditions. Changing reproductive phenology has been observed in many populations of Atlantic and Pacific salmon and is sometimes attributed to adaptive responses to climate change. The sockeye salmon spawning in the Cedar River near Seattle, Washington, USA, have displayed dramatic changes in spawning timing over the past 50 years, trending later through the early 1990s, and becoming earlier since then. We explored the patterns and drivers of these changes using generalized linear models and mathematical simulations to identify possible environmental correlates of the changes, and test the alternative hypothesis that hatchery propagation caused inadvertent selection on timing. The trend toward later spawning prior to 1993 was partially explained by environmental changes, but the rapid advance in spawning since was not. Instead, since its initiation in 1991, the hatchery has, on average, selected for earlier spawning, and, depending on trait heritability, could have advanced spawning by 1-3 weeks over this period. We estimated heritability of spawning date to be high (h [2] ~0.8; 95% CI: 0.5-1.1), so the upper end of this range is not improbable, though at lower heritabilities a smaller effect would be expected. The lower reproductive success of early spawners and relatively low survival of early emerging juveniles observed in recent years suggest that artificial and natural selection are acting in opposite directions. The fitness costs of early spawning may be exacerbated by future warming; thus, the artificially advanced phenology could reduce the population's productivity. Such artificial selection is known in many salmon hatcheries, so there are broad consequences for the productivity of wild populations comingled with hatchery-produced fish.}, }
@article {pmid31414393, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmed, A and Al-Amin, AQ and Rasiah, R}, title = {COP negotiations and Malaysian climate change roadmap: a comparative assessment using a dynamic environmental model.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {29}, pages = {30003-30015}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-06141-7}, pmid = {31414393}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Congresses as Topic ; Humans ; Malaysia ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Negotiating ; }, abstract = {This study critically evaluates two COP proposals on Malaysia that have been under consideration to reduce climate damage. A top-down disaggregation framework deploying an "Empirical Regional Downscaling Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy" is used to evaluate the local government climate roadmap and Malaysia's emissions reduction agendas under COP21 and subsequently COP22 proposals. The findings show that the costs from climate damage over the period 2010-2110 under the Malaysian Optimal Climate Action scenario will amount to MYR5,483 (US$1589) billion. The commensurate climate damage costs under the COP21 and COP22 scenario would be MYR5, 264 (US$1526) billion. Thus, the effective proposal for reducing climate damage in Malaysia over the period 2010-2110 is the COP22 time-adjusted COP21 proposal but there are a number of macroeconomic cost implications for savings and consumption that policy makers must address before acting.}, }
@article {pmid31414391, year = {2019}, author = {Anwar, MA and Zhou, R and Sajjad, A and Asmi, F}, title = {Climate change communication as political agenda and voters' behavior.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {29}, pages = {29946-29961}, pmid = {31414391}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Choice Behavior ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Pakistan ; *Politics ; Public Opinion ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {"Climate change communication" is taking the strategic position in the international and national politics around the globe. In the recent decade, different developing nations have started considering "climate change communication" as an integral part of the political campaigns and sustainable development. Specifically, the current document comprised of two sections. In the first section of the study, authors briefly compared the attributes related to "climate change communication" in the mainstream political parties' manifesto for the general election 2018 in Pakistan in a qualitative manner. In the second part, the difference of opinion among voters of mainstream political parties towards "climate change" was examined. In a bird's eye view, the perceived seriousness of "climate change" as a real challenge among voters mapped by the independent factors of "urbanization," "industrialization," "transportation," and "waste management" for sustainable development through the primary quantitative survey of 732 voters in the country. The finding highlights (1) public understanding of "socio-scientific issues," i.e., climate change is easy to communicate, and (2) how political parties are framing and communicating about "climate change" plays a significant role in climate change communication. The study concludes that "climate change communication" holds a critical role in developing regions' future political discourse to shape sustainable development policies.}, }
@article {pmid31413930, year = {2019}, author = {Cabezas-Cartes, F and Fernández, JB and Duran, F and Kubisch, EL}, title = {Potential benefits from global warming to the thermal biology and locomotor performance of an endangered Patagonian lizard.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7437}, pmid = {31413930}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Global warming can significantly affect many aspects of the biology of animal species, including their thermal physiology and physiological performance. Thermal performance curves provide a heuristic model to evaluate the impacts of temperature on the ecophysiology of ectotherms. When integrated with other thermal biology parameters, they can be used to predict the impacts of climate change on individual fitness and population viability. In this study, we combine holistic measures of thermal physiology and the thermal sensitivity of locomotor performance with environmental temperatures measured at fine scale to estimate the vulnerability to global warming of the endangered Patagonian lizard Phymaturus tenebrosus. Our results indicate that this lizard exhibits its preferred temperatures and maximum locomotor performance at higher temperatures than the mean temperature it currently experiences in its habitat. In addition, it exhibits a low effectiveness of thermoregulation, being a poor thermoregulator. In view of the results obtained, we suggest that the climatic conditions of Patagonia may be advantageous for P. tenebrosus to survive future global warming, since its thermal physiology and locomotor performance may improve under increasing in environmental temperatures in its habitat.}, }
@article {pmid31413346, year = {2019}, author = {Borzée, A and Andersen, D and Groffen, J and Kim, HT and Bae, Y and Jang, Y}, title = {Climate change-based models predict range shifts in the distribution of the only Asian plethodontid salamander: Karsenia koreana.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {11838}, pmid = {31413346}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Models, Theoretical ; Republic of Korea ; Urodela/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Populations see their range fluctuate in relation to environmental variations, including climate change, and their survival is linked to the maintenance of large enough populations and broad enough distributions during these variations. Most amphibian populations are threatened by numerous ecological and anthropogenic variables acting in synergy with climate change. Accumulating basic ecological data such as range enables the development of population and range dynamics, themselves resulting on adequate conservation plans. Karsenia koreana is the only known Asian plethodontic salamander, occurring in a very restricted area only. Based on presence data, we created an ecological model using six bioclimatic factors with low multicollinearity to define the adequate habitat of the species, and we modelled the predicted suitability of the Korean landscape following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) predicting climate change scenarios based on CO2 concentrations in 2050 and 2070. The maximum entropy model for the current distribution produced a landscape suitability considerably wider than the current known distribution. The projected ranges for each RCP indicated marked increases, decreases and shifts in areas with suitable landscapes due to climate change. The lowest RCP prediction resulted in an increase in suitable area, although potentially without connectivity with current populations, while the highest RCP predictions resulted in a decrease. Our results highlight the potential negative impact of climate change, thus requiring updates in conservation plans for K. koreana. The methods used here can be replicated with any land-dwelling species, and our results reflect expected range shifts for most amphibians of the northern hemisphere.}, }
@article {pmid31412141, year = {2020}, author = {Korell, L and Auge, H and Chase, JM and Harpole, S and Knight, TM}, title = {We need more realistic climate change experiments for understanding ecosystems of the future.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {325-327}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14797}, pmid = {31412141}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Experiments that alter local climate and measure community- and ecosystem-level responses are an important tool for understanding how future ecosystems will respond to climate change. Here, we synthesized data from 76 studies that manipulated climate and measured plant community responses, and found that most climate change experiments do not correspond to model-projected climate scenarios for their respective regions. This mismatch constrains our ability to predict responses of plant biodiversity and ecosystem functions to climate change, and we conclude with suggestions for a way forward. See also the Commentary on this article by Muller et al., 26, e4-e5 and De Boeck et al.,26, e6-e7.}, }
@article {pmid31410702, year = {2019}, author = {Hao, X and Ma, H and Hua, D and Qin, J and Zhang, Y}, title = {Response of ecosystem water use efficiency to climate change in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {9}, pages = {561}, pmid = {31410702}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {41571109//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Hydrology ; Models, Theoretical ; Satellite Imagery ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Water ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE) is a popular issue in the comprehensive study of climate change, ecology, and hydrology. Currently, views on the response of EWUE to temperature, precipitation, and drought remain controversial. Based on ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) datasets, both of which were retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) using the Carnegie Ames Stanford approach (CASA) and surface energy balance algorithms for land (SEBAL) models, respectively, this study comprehensively examined the relationship between EWUE and temperature, precipitation, and drought in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia. The results showed that EWUE had an obvious temporal change trend in the Tianshan Mountains. The EWUEs of all vegetation types presented an increasing trend in spring and a decreasing trend in autumn. These results led to a phase shift in the annual cycle of EWUE over the years. Compared with 2000 to 2003, from 2012 to 2016, the annual EWUE cycle had advanced by 32 days. Precipitation generally had a negative effect on EWUE, while temperature had an obvious positive effect on EWUE. The EWUE responses to drought for the different vegetation types showed a variety of change trends. With the increase in drought stress, EWUE not only showed a simple upward or downward trend but also showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend or a downward trend followed by an upward trend. EWUE is more sensitive to changing environments than NPP or ET and is more suitable for analyzing ecosystem responses to global change.}, }
@article {pmid31409926, year = {2019}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Eat less meat: UN climate-change report calls for change to human diet.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {572}, number = {7769}, pages = {291-292}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02409-7}, pmid = {31409926}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Agriculture/statistics &amp; numerical data/*trends ; Animals ; Diet, Healthy/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Diet, Vegetarian/statistics &amp; numerical data/*trends ; Disasters/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forestry/methods/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Goals ; Humans ; Meat/*supply &amp; distribution ; Research Report ; Soil/chemistry ; Temperature ; *United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid31409789, year = {2019}, author = {Petersen, AM and Vincent, EM and Westerling, AL}, title = {Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3502}, pmid = {31409789}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {We juxtapose 386 prominent contrarians with 386 expert scientists by tracking their digital footprints across ∼200,000 research publications and ∼100,000 English-language digital and print media articles on climate change. Projecting these individuals across the same backdrop facilitates quantifying disparities in media visibility and scientific authority, and identifying organization patterns within their association networks. Here we show via direct comparison that contrarians are featured in 49% more media articles than scientists. Yet when comparing visibility in mainstream media sources only, we observe just a 1% excess visibility, which objectively demonstrates the crowding out of professional mainstream sources by the proliferation of new media sources, many of which contribute to the production and consumption of climate change disinformation at scale. These results demonstrate why climate scientists should increasingly exert their authority in scientific and public discourse, and why professional journalists and editors should adjust the disproportionate attention given to contrarians.}, }
@article {pmid31407941, year = {2019}, author = {Vaught, J}, title = {Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Biopreservation.}, journal = {Biopreservation and biobanking}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {273}, doi = {10.1089/bio.2019.29057.jjv}, pmid = {31407941}, issn = {1947-5543}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; *Biodiversity ; *Biological Specimen Banks ; Climate Change ; Seeds ; }, }
@article {pmid31405979, year = {2019}, author = {Hong, C and Zhang, Q and Zhang, Y and Davis, SJ and Tong, D and Zheng, Y and Liu, Z and Guan, D and He, K and Schellnhuber, HJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {35}, pages = {17193-17200}, pmid = {31405979}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {In recent years, air pollution has caused more than 1 million deaths per year in China, making it a major focus of public health efforts. However, future climate change may exacerbate such human health impacts by increasing the frequency and duration of weather conditions that enhance air pollution exposure. Here, we use a combination of climate, air quality, and epidemiological models to assess future air pollution deaths in a changing climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). We find that, assuming pollution emissions and population are held constant at current levels, climate change would adversely affect future air quality for >85% of China's population (∼55% of land area) by the middle of the century, and would increase by 3% and 4% the population-weighted average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, respectively. As a result, we estimate an additional 12,100 and 8,900 Chinese (95% confidence interval: 10,300 to 13,800 and 2,300 to 14,700, respectively) will die per year from PM2.5 and ozone exposure, respectively. The important underlying climate mechanisms are changes in extreme conditions such as atmospheric stagnation and heat waves (contributing 39% and 6%, respectively, to the increase in mortality). Additionally, greater vulnerability of China's aging population will further increase the estimated deaths from PM2.5 and ozone in 2050 by factors of 1 and 3, respectively. Our results indicate that climate change and more intense extremes are likely to increase the risk of severe pollution events in China. Managing air quality in China in a changing climate will thus become more challenging.}, }
@article {pmid31402799, year = {2019}, author = {Harcourt, R and Bruine de Bruin, W and Dessai, S and Taylor, A}, title = {Investing in a good pair of wellies: how do non-experts interpret the expert terminology of climate change impacts and adaptation?.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {155}, number = {2}, pages = {257-272}, pmid = {31402799}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {The UK is already experiencing the impacts of climate change and these are expected to increase in scale and severity in the coming decades. Preparing for impacts by undertaking adaptive actions can potentially reduce the level of harm. In the UK, the government's adaptation program aims to develop a "climate-ready society." However, achieving broad public engagement in adaptation presents a significant communications challenge. Here, we aimed to understand how UK residents use and interpret the terms "climate change impacts" and "climate change adaptation." We conducted a secondary analysis of 22 interviews with UK residents, who were recruited for their diverse climate change views. The interviewees expressed a lack of clarity around expected climate change impacts, which did not prevent them from saying that they were already experiencing the effects of a changing climate. Further, threats to cultural norms and values were perceived as serious and emotionally charged. Adaptation was often conflated with mitigation, and responsibility for adaptation was contested. We discuss the implications of our findings for developing more useful public communication about climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31401801, year = {2019}, author = {Vanli, &#xd6; and Ustundag, BB and Ahmad, I and Hernandez-Ochoa, IM and Hoogenboom, G}, title = {Using crop modeling to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wheat in southeastern turkey.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {28}, pages = {29397-29408}, pmid = {31401801}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Temperature ; Triticum/*chemistry/metabolism ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {The extreme temperatures and uneven distribution of rainfall associated with climate change are expected to affect agricultural productivity and food security. A study was conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on wheat in southeastern regions of Turkey. The CERES-wheat crop simulation model was calibrated and evaluated with data from eight surveyed farms. The four farms were used for calibration and four for evaluation. Climate change scenarios were developed for the middle (2036-2065) and late 21st century (2066-2095) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) for study sites in Islahiye and Nurdagi. Model calibration results showed a good agreement between observed and simulated yield with only a 1 to 11% range of error. The model evaluation results showed good fit between observed and simulated values of all parameters with % error ranged from 0.51 to 13.3%. Future climate change projections showed that maximum temperature (Tmax) will increase between 1.6 °C (RCP4.5) and 2.3 °C (RCP8.5), while minimum temperature (Tmin) will increase between 1.0 °C (RCP4.5) and 1.5 °C (RCP8.5) for mid-century. At the end of the century, Tmax is projected to increase from 2 °C (RCP4.5) to 4 °C (RCP8.5) and Tmin from 1.3 °C (RCP4.5) to 3.1 °C (RCP8.5). Climate change impacts results showed that future rise in temperature will reduce wheat yield by 16.3% in mid-century and 16.8% at the end of the century at Islahiye and for Nurdagi, while 13.0% in mid and 14.4% end of the century. The use of climate and crop modeling technique provides useful information in evaluating the climate change impacts and may assist stakeholders to make decisions to overcome the negative impacts in the near and long term.}, }
@article {pmid31401300, year = {2019}, author = {Damien, M and Tougeron, K}, title = {Prey-predator phenological mismatch under climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {60-68}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.07.002}, pmid = {31401300}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Control Agents ; *Climate Change ; Food Chain ; Insecta/*parasitology/*physiology ; Life Cycle Stages ; Population Dynamics ; *Predatory Behavior ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Insect phenology is affected by climate change and main responses are driven by phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary changes. Any modification in seasonal activity in one species can have consequences on interacting species, within and among trophic levels. In this overview, we focus on synchronisation mismatches that can occur between tightly interacting species such as hosts and parasitoids or preys and predators. Asynchronies happen because species from different trophic levels can have different response rates to climate change. We show that insect species alter their seasonal activities by modifying their life-cycle through change in voltinism or by altering their development rate. We expect strong bottom-up effects for phenology adjustments rather than top-down effects within food-webs. Extremely complex outcomes arise from such trophic mismatches, which make consequences at the community or ecosystem levels tricky to predict in a climate change context. We explore a set of potential consequences on population dynamics, conservation of species interactions, with a particular focus on the provision of ecosystem services by predators and parasitoids, such as biological pest control.}, }
@article {pmid31400190, year = {2019}, author = {Auffret, AG and Thomas, CD}, title = {Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non-native species on community responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {12}, pages = {4303-4314}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14765}, pmid = {31400190}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2015-1065//Swedish Research Council Formas/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Introduced Species ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {Climate change, land-use change and introductions of non-native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm-associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non-native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm-associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool-associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non-native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community-level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non-natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate-driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31398655, year = {2019}, author = {Ravindra, K and Rattan, P and Mor, S and Aggarwal, AN}, title = {Generalized additive models: Building evidence of air pollution, climate change and human health.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {132}, number = {}, pages = {104987}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.104987}, pmid = {31398655}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Humans ; Linear Models ; *Models, Statistical ; Software ; }, abstract = {Advances in statistical analysis in the last few decades in the area of linear models enhanced the capability of researchers to study environmental procedures. In relation to general linear models; generalized linear models (GLM) provide greater flexibility in analyzing data related to non-normal distributions. Considering this, the current review explains various applications of the generalized additive model (GAM) to link air pollution, climatic variability with adverse health outcomes. The review examines the application of GAM within the varied field, focusing on the environment and meteorological data. Further, advantages and complications of applying GAM to environmental data are also discussed. Application of GAM allowed for specification for the error pattern and found to be an appropriate fit for the data sets having non-normal distributions; this results in lower and more reliable p-values. Since most environmental data is non-normal, GAM provides a more effective analytical method than traditional linear models. This review highlights on ambient air pollutants, climate change, and health by evaluating studies related to GAM. Additionally, an insight into the application of GAM in R software is provided, which is open source software with the extensive application for any type of dataset.}, }
@article {pmid31396562, year = {2019}, author = {Weizman, E and Levy, O}, title = {The role of chromatin dynamics under global warming response in the symbiotic coral model Aiptasia.}, journal = {Communications biology}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {282}, pmid = {31396562}, issn = {2399-3642}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Anthozoa/genetics/*physiology ; Chromatin/metabolism ; Genome ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; *Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Extreme weather events frequency and scale are altered due to climate change. Symbiosis between corals and their endosymbiotic-dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium) is susceptible to these events and can lead to what is known as bleaching. However, there is evidence for coral adaptive plasticity in the role of epigenetic that have acclimated to high-temperature environments. We have implemented ATAC-seq and RNA-seq to study the cnidarian-dinoflagellate model Exaptasia pallida (Aiptasia) and expose the role of chromatin-dynamics in response to thermal-stress. We have identified 1309 genomic sites that change their accessibility in response to thermal changes. Moreover, apo-symbiotic Aiptasia accessible sites were enriched with NFAT, ATF4, GATA3, SOX14, and PAX3 motifs and expressed genes related to immunological pathways. Symbiotic Aiptasia accessible sites were enriched with NKx3-1, HNF4A, IRF4 motifs and expressed genes related to oxidative-stress pathways. Our work opens a new path towards understanding thermal-stress gene regulation in association with gene activity and chromatin-dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid31394018, year = {2019}, author = {Cornelissen, B and Neumann, P and Schweiger, O}, title = {Global warming promotes biological invasion of a honey bee pest.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {11}, pages = {3642-3655}, pmid = {31394018}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Bees ; *Coleoptera ; *Global Warming ; Introduced Species ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Climate change and biological invasions are two major global environmental challenges. Both may interact, e.g. via altered impact and distribution of invasive alien species. Even though invasive species play a key role for compromising the health of honey bees, the impact of climate change on the severity of such species is still unknown. The small hive beetle (SHB, Aethina tumida, Murray) is a parasite of honey bee colonies. It is endemic to sub-Saharan Africa and has established populations on all continents except Antarctica. Since SHBs pupate in soil, pupation performance is governed foremost by two abiotic factors, soil temperature and moisture, which will be affected by climate change. Here, we investigated SHB invasion risk globally under current and future climate scenarios. We modelled survival and development time during pupation (=pupal performance) in response to soil temperature and soil moisture using published and novel experimental data. Presence data on SHB distribution were used for model validation. We then linked the model with global soil data in order to classify areas (resolution: 10 arcmin; i.e. 18.6 km at the equator) as unsuitable, marginal and suitable for SHB pupation performance. Under the current climate, the results show that many areas globally yet uninvaded are actually suitable, suggesting considerable SHB invasion risk. Future scenarios of global warming project a vehement increase in climatic suitability for SHB and corresponding potential for invasion, especially in the temperate regions of the Northern hemisphere, thereby creating demand for enhanced and adapted mitigation and management. Our analysis shows, for the first time, effects of global warming on a honey bee pest and will help areas at risk to prepare adequately. In conclusion, this is a clear case for global warming promoting biological invasion of a pest species with severe potential to harm important pollinator species globally.}, }
@article {pmid31392617, year = {2020}, author = {Shalby, A and Elshemy, M and Zeidan, BA}, title = {Assessment of climate change impacts on water quality parameters of Lake Burullus, Egypt.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {26}, pages = {32157-32178}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-019-06105-x}, pmid = {31392617}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Egypt ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Lakes ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Egyptian Mediterranean coast hosts five shallow lagoons which play a vital role in the national economy. Lake Burullus is the second largest one that is located in the Nile Delta and is connected to the Mediterranean by a narrow outlet. This lagoon faces various anthropogenic-induced implications that threat its ecosystem and biodiversity. The prime objective of this study is investigating the impacts of future climate change (CC) on its characteristics. A 2-D hydro-ecological modeling for the lagoon was implemented, using MIKE21FM. The proposed model was calibrated and validated against the collected water quality records, for two successive years (2011-2013), at twelve monitoring stations throughout the lagoon. The simulations were executed for various parameters, including water depth, salinity, DO, BOD, and nutrient components. Six simulations from different regional climate models (RCMs) were obtained and examined to extract the most accurate climatic projections for the lagoon coordinates. These climatic estimates cover three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios according to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). A moderate sea level rise (SLR), locally projected offshore from the Nile Delta coast, was obtained. The validated model was forced with the climatic and SLR projections of 2 years representing the mid and long-term future of the twenty-first century. The model results showed that the developed model is an efficient tool to simulate the lagoon characteristics. The results of the modified model showed that CC has the potential to radically alter the physical and chemical structure of Lake Burullus. The results emphasized that the lagoon is expected to be warmer and more saline. The risk of oxygen depletion is firmly predictable with significant spatial differences of DO decreasing. A prolonged residence time is expected, accompanied by an increasing trend of phosphate and chlorophyll-a and a decreasing trend of nitrate. CC impacts on Lake Burullus should be considered in its urgently required management plan.}, }
@article {pmid31392429, year = {2019}, author = {Ullah, W and Nafees, M and Khurshid, M and Nihei, T}, title = {Assessing farmers' perspectives on climate change for effective farm-level adaptation measures in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {9}, pages = {547}, pmid = {31392429}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crops, Agricultural ; Droughts/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Monitoring ; Farmers/*psychology ; Farms ; Fertilizers ; Floods/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Male ; Pakistan ; *Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {Agriculture is considered as the backbone of the economy of Pakistan. However, current changes in climate have been adversely affecting agricultural productivity. In this paper, perceived impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation towards it have been studied in Charsadda district (lowlands) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan through extensive field surveys, involving 116 farm households. Results have revealed that climate change factors including fluctuating temperature, evidence of yearly long droughts, and a steady shift in rainfall patterns have pressured the agriculture sector and livelihoods of the local peasants. The staggering floods of 2010 and 2011 in Pakistan have evidenced severe climatic changes in Pakistan. These countrywide floods have washed fertile soil in the study area that has directly contributed to losses in agricultural yield and increased vector-borne diseases in crops. The local farmers have commonly deployed adaptive measure such as crops diversification, changing fertilizer, and planting shaded trees to minimize the impacts of changes in climate. However, these adjustments measures are perceived as not appropriate for improving farm yield. Therefore, the study suggests that improved understanding of the climate change impacts and knowledge on adapting adequately will lead to no-regret adaptation. It will also help protecting farmer's lives and livelihoods and will boost their resilience towards changing climatic conditions. Graphical abstract .}, }
@article {pmid31391875, year = {2019}, author = {Volenzo, TE and Odiyo, JO}, title = {Linking risk communication and sustainable climate change action: A conceptual framework.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {703}, pmid = {31391875}, issn = {1996-1421}, }
@article {pmid31391584, year = {2019}, author = {Schartup, AT and Thackray, CP and Qureshi, A and Dassuncao, C and Gillespie, K and Hanke, A and Sunderland, EM}, title = {Climate change and overfishing increase neurotoxicant in marine predators.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {572}, number = {7771}, pages = {648-650}, pmid = {31391584}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/chemistry/classification/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Diet/veterinary ; Dogfish/metabolism ; Environmental Exposure/*analysis ; Fisheries/*supply &amp; distribution ; Fishes/classification/*metabolism ; *Food Chain ; Food Contamination/analysis ; Gadus morhua/metabolism ; Humans ; Methylmercury Compounds/*analysis ; *Predatory Behavior ; Seafood/analysis ; Seawater/chemistry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {More than three billion people rely on seafood for nutrition. However, fish are the predominant source of human exposure to methylmercury (MeHg), a potent neurotoxic substance. In the United States, 82% of population-wide exposure to MeHg is from the consumption of marine seafood and almost 40% is from fresh and canned tuna alone[1]. Around 80% of the inorganic mercury (Hg) that is emitted to the atmosphere from natural and human sources is deposited in the ocean[2], where some is converted by microorganisms to MeHg. In predatory fish, environmental MeHg concentrations are amplified by a million times or more. Human exposure to MeHg has been associated with long-term neurocognitive deficits in children that persist into adulthood, with global costs to society that exceed US$20 billion[3]. The first global treaty on reductions in anthropogenic Hg emissions (the Minamata Convention on Mercury) entered into force in 2017. However, effects of ongoing changes in marine ecosystems on bioaccumulation of MeHg in marine predators that are frequently consumed by humans (for example, tuna, cod and swordfish) have not been considered when setting global policy targets. Here we use more than 30 years of data and ecosystem modelling to show that MeHg concentrations in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) increased by up to 23% between the 1970s and 2000s as a result of dietary shifts initiated by overfishing. Our model also predicts an estimated 56% increase in tissue MeHg concentrations in Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) due to increases in seawater temperature between a low point in 1969 and recent peak levels-which is consistent with 2017 observations. This estimated increase in tissue MeHg exceeds the modelled 22% reduction that was achieved in the late 1990s and 2000s as a result of decreased seawater MeHg concentrations. The recently reported plateau in global anthropogenic Hg emissions[4] suggests that ocean warming and fisheries management programmes will be major drivers of future MeHg concentrations in marine predators.}, }
@article {pmid31390751, year = {2019}, author = {Khan, MD and Thi Vu, HH and Lai, QT and Ahn, JW}, title = {Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {31390751}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; Disease Vectors ; Humans ; }, abstract = {For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector's growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.}, }
@article {pmid31390708, year = {2019}, author = {Clerici, N and Cote-Navarro, F and Escobedo, FJ and Rubiano, K and Villegas, JC}, title = {Spatio-temporal and cumulative effects of land use-land cover and climate change on two ecosystem services in the Colombian Andes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {685}, number = {}, pages = {1181-1192}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.275}, pmid = {31390708}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change can have marked effects on ecosystem service (ES) provision in the Andes, particularly in peri-urban areas. In addition to global-change related processes, cumulative effects such as changing socio-political dynamics, environmental policies, and conflicts are also changing type and magnitude of land use-land cover (LULC) dynamics in the Colombian Andes. Studies in the region have investigated the effects of LULC change, deforestation and extreme climatic events on the hydrology of watersheds and carbon sequestration. Yet, less is known on how the cumulative effects of climate and LULC changes will drive water yield and carbon sequestration. To investigate these cumulative effects, we study two different watersheds near Bogota, Colombia and their ES for the period 2016-2046. We use IPCC-LULC scenarios, expert elicitation, hydro-meteorological data, and integrated modelling using temporal LULC change and ESs valuation models to parse out effects of LULC versus climate change on two representative ESs. Our results show forest and shrublands remain stable during the analysis period. However, urban conversion of agricultural pastures is substantial. We found that climate change scenarios had greater effect on water yield and supply than LULC scenarios in both watersheds. However, carbon sequestration was greater in rural forest and shrubland areas farther from Bogota. In contrast to current land use zoning being promoted by local elected officials, our findings indicate that land-use development and policies in near-urban basins need to minimize urbanization in agriculture and pasture LULCs, as these can have substantial effects on water yield. Similarly, land use polices in ex-urban areas need to conserve forested and shrubland areas to maximize their carbon offset potential. Collectively, our results highlight the need to incorporate climate change conditions in decision making and land use planning processes, in order to maintain the capacity of ecosystems, both urban and rural, to provide services to society.}, }
@article {pmid31388476, year = {2019}, author = {Stein, RA and Sheldon, ND and Smith, S}, title = {Rapid response to anthropogenic climate change by Thuja occidentalis: implications for past climate reconstructions and future climate predictions.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7378}, pmid = {31388476}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Carbon isotope values of leaves (δ[13]Cleaf) from meta-analyses and growth chamber studies of C3 plants have been used to propose generalized relationships between δ[13]Cleaf and climate variables such as mean annual precipitation (MAP), atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide ([CO2]), and other climate variables. These generalized relationships are frequently applied to the fossil record to create paleoclimate reconstructions. Although plant evolution influences biochemistry and response to environmental stress, few studies have assessed species-specific carbon assimilation as it relates to climate outside of a laboratory. We measured δ[13]Cleaf values and C:N ratios of a wide-ranging evergreen conifer with a long fossil record, Thuja occidentalis (Cupressaceae) collected 1804-2017, in order to maximize potential paleo-applications of our focal species. This high-resolution record represents a natural experiment from pre-Industrial to Industrial times, which spans a range of geologically meaningful [CO2] and δ[13]Catm values. Δleaf values (carbon isotope discrimination between δ[13]Catm and δ[13]Cleaf) remain constant across climate conditions, indicating limited response to environmental stress. Only δ[13]Cleaf and δ[13]Catm values showed a strong relationship (linear), thus, δ[13]Cleaf is an excellent record of carbon isotopic changes in the atmosphere during Industrialization. In contrast with previous free-air concentration enrichment experiments, no relationship was found between C:N ratios and increasing [CO2]. Simultaneously static C:N ratios and Δleaf in light of increasing CO2 highlights plants' inability to match rapid climate change with increased carbon assimilation as previously expected; Δleaf values are not reliable tools to reconstruct MAP and [CO2], and δ[13]Cleaf values only decrease with [CO2] in line with atmospheric carbon isotope changes.}, }
@article {pmid31388223, year = {2019}, author = {Cariappa, MP}, title = {Climate change vis-a-vis climate and change: the military public health paradigm.}, journal = {Medical journal, Armed Forces India}, volume = {75}, number = {3}, pages = {237-239}, pmid = {31388223}, issn = {0377-1237}, }
@article {pmid31388089, year = {2019}, author = {Hofer, U}, title = {Candida auris' potential link to climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {17}, number = {10}, pages = {588}, doi = {10.1038/s41579-019-0254-x}, pmid = {31388089}, issn = {1740-1534}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Candida/*classification/genetics/*isolation &amp; purification ; Candidiasis/*epidemiology/*microbiology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure ; *Genetic Variation ; Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid31388050, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmad, R and Khuroo, AA and Charles, B and Hamid, M and Rashid, I and Aravind, NA}, title = {Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {11395}, pmid = {31388050}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Africa ; Asia ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forecasting/methods ; Introduced Species/*trends ; *Leucanthemum ; Models, Statistical ; North America ; Oceania ; *Plant Dispersal ; Risk Assessment/methods ; South America ; }, abstract = {In an era of climate change, biological invasions by alien species represent one of the main anthropogenic drivers of global environmental change. The present study, using an ensemble modelling approach, has mapped current and future global distribution of the invasive Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) and predicted the invasion hotspots under climate change. The current potential distribution of Ox-eye Daisy coincides well with the actual distribution records, thereby indicating robustness of our model. The model predicted a global increase in the suitable habitat for the potential invasion of this species under climate change. Oceania was shown to be the high-risk region to the potential invasion of this species under both current and future climate change scenarios. The results revealed niche conservatism for Australia and Northern America, but contrastingly a niche shift for Africa, Asia, Oceania and Southern America. The global distribution modelling and risk assessment of Ox-eye Daisy has immediate implications in mitigating its invasion impacts under climate change, as well as predicting the global invasion hotspots and developing region-specific invasion management strategies. Interestingly, the contrasting patterns of niche dynamics shown by this invasive plant species provide novel insights towards disentangling the different operative mechanisms underlying the process of biological invasions at the global scale.}, }
@article {pmid31388033, year = {2019}, author = {Islam, SU and Hay, RW and Déry, SJ and Booth, BP}, title = {Modelling the impacts of climate change on riverine thermal regimes in western Canada's largest Pacific watershed.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {11398}, pmid = {31388033}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Quantification of climate change impacts on the thermal regimes of rivers in British Columbia (BC) is crucial given their importance to aquatic ecosystems. Using the Air2Stream model, we investigate the impact of both air temperature and streamflow changes on river water temperatures from 1950 to 2015 across BC's 234,000 km[2] Fraser River Basin (FRB). Model results show the FRB's summer water temperatures rose by nearly 1.0 °C during 1950-2015 with 0.47 °C spread across 17 river sites. For most of these sites, such increases in average summer water temperature have doubled the number of days exceeding 20 °C, the water temperature that, if exceeded, potentially increases the physiological stress of salmon during migration. Furthermore, river sites, especially those in the upper and middle FRB, show significant associations between Pacific Ocean teleconnections and regional water temperatures. A multivariate linear regression analysis reveals that air temperature primarily controls simulated water temperatures in the FRB by capturing ~80% of its explained variance with secondary impacts through river discharge. Given such increases in river water temperature, salmon returning to spawn in the Fraser River and its tributaries are facing continued and increasing physical challenges now and potentially into the future.}, }
@article {pmid31387149, year = {2019}, author = {Sainsbury, P and Charlesworth, K and Madden, L and Capon, A and Stewart, G and Pencheon, D}, title = {Climate change is a health issue: what can doctors do?.}, journal = {Internal medicine journal}, volume = {49}, number = {8}, pages = {1044-1048}, doi = {10.1111/imj.14380}, pmid = {31387149}, issn = {1445-5994}, support = {//University of Sydney's Planetary Health Platform/International ; }, mesh = {Australia ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; *Organizational Policy ; Professional Practice/trends ; *Public Health ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The visit to Australia by Dr David Pencheon, Founding Director of the National Health Service (NHS) Sustainable Development Unit, in April-May 2018 generated considerable interest and engagement. Dr Pencheon's overarching messages were that climate change is a health issue and that doctors and health systems have an opportunity, and responsibility, to lead climate action. This article distils Dr Pencheon's presentations into three themes: (i) carbon accounting; (ii) transformational change in our systems of healthcare; and (iii) a health system fit for the future. For each theme, we highlight promising initiatives that are already underway in Australia that are starting to transform our health system into one fit for a future environmentally sustainable world. We suggest practical ways in which doctors can lead the transformation through personal action and influence broader systems.}, }
@article {pmid31386954, year = {2019}, author = {Wu, J and Huang, C and Pang, M and Wang, Z and Yang, L and FitzGerald, G and Zhong, S}, title = {Planned sheltering as an adaptation strategy to climate change: Lessons learned from the severe flooding in Anhui Province of China in 2016.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {694}, number = {}, pages = {133586}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133586}, pmid = {31386954}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Disaster Planning ; *Floods ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Evacuation and sheltering is both a disaster response measure and a strategy to adapt to climate change, and consequently address the Sustainable Development Goals. Research has found that displacement does cause negative health impacts to evacuees, but few studies have observed how planned sheltering might reduce adverse health impacts. This article identifies the good practice and lessons learned from China's response to severe flooding in Anhui province in 2016.<br><br>METHODS: First, we identified the key phases for disaster sheltering by analyzing related government reports. We then interviewed 21 relevant professionals in order to identify good practice and lessons learned which could lead to better health outcomes (e.g., reduce fatalities, infectious diseases, and mental health problems). Interviewees were selected through a purposive sampling strategy, which identified emergency management professionals and those who had been assigned evacuation, sheltering, or medical tasks. Finally, thematic analysis and the constant comparative method were used to code, identify, and describe the good practice and challenges during key phases.<br><br>RESULTS: Good practice included: using early warning systems to advise communities of risks and enforce evacuation in the flood zone; preparing and using schools as shelters with open-ended periods of operation; and, providing stable shelter accommodations which offered medical and public health services, clean drinking water and food, sanitation, and toilet hygiene through multiagency cooperation. Challenges included: providing mental health services, evaluating intervention effectiveness, managing volunteers, monitoring long-term health effects, and providing economic support.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The unintended negative effects caused by sheltering during extreme weather can be reduced. This requires close cooperation among government entities to establish planned mass shelters with appropriate levels of personal, environmental and healthcare support and to ensure long-term physical and mental health support. Additionally, if disaster mitigation strategies are integrated with climate adaptation plans, we can design more health-oriented and sustainable cities.}, }
@article {pmid31386221, year = {2020}, author = {Lapola, DM and Silva, JMCD and Braga, DR and Carpigiani, L and Ogawa, F and Torres, RR and Barbosa, LCF and Ometto, JPHB and Joly, CA}, title = {A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {34}, number = {2}, pages = {427-437}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.13405}, pmid = {31386221}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Brazil ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km[2]) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km[2]), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.}, }
@article {pmid31380091, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, ZM and Meng, SY and Rao, GY}, title = {Quaternary climate change and habitat preference shaped the genetic differentiation and phylogeography of Rhodiola sect. Prainia in the southern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {14}, pages = {8305-8319}, pmid = {31380091}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {There are two long-standing biogeographic hypotheses regarding the glacial survival of plant species in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP): the in situ survival hypothesis and the tabula rasa hypothesis. We tested these two hypotheses in a phylogeographic study of Rhodiola sect. Prainia, a monophyletic section with ecologically divergent lineages. Molecular data from the nuclear internal transcribed spacer, six plastid markers and 13 nuclear microsatellite loci were analyzed for 240 individuals from 19 populations of this section. Environmental data were used to analyze the niches of major phylogenetic lineages within this section and to model changes in their distributions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We found that Rhodiola sect. Prainia consists of three evolutionary lineages: all populations of R. stapfii, R. prainii populations at the southern edge of the QTP, and R. prainii populations in the interior part of the QTP. During the LGM, the survival of R. prainii in the interior part of the QTP corresponded with the in situ survival hypothesis, while R. stapfii most probably survived the LGM in a manner corresponding with the tabula rasa hypothesis. The evolutionary history of different lineages of this section was shaped by topography, climate change, and lineage-specific habitat preferences.}, }
@article {pmid31380063, year = {2019}, author = {Reusch, C and Gampe, J and Scheuerlein, A and Meier, F and Grosche, L and Kerth, G}, title = {Differences in seasonal survival suggest species-specific reactions to climate change in two sympatric bat species.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {14}, pages = {7957-7965}, pmid = {31380063}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Long-lived animals with a low annual reproductive output need a long time to recover from population crashes and are, thus, likely to face high extinction risk, if the current global environmental change will increase mortality rates. To aid conservation of those species, knowledge on the variability of mortality rates is essential. Unfortunately, however, individual-based multiyear data sets that are required for that have only rarely been collected for free-ranging long-lived mammals. Here, we used a five-year data set comprising activity data of 1,445 RFID-tagged individuals of two long-lived temperate zone bat species, Natterer's bats (Myotis nattereri) and Daubenton's bats (Myotis daubentonii), at their joint hibernaculum. Both species are listed as being of high conservation interest by the European Habitats Directive. Applying mixed-effects logistic regression, we explored seasonal survival differences in these two species which differ in foraging strategy and phenology. In both species, survival over the first winter of an individual's life was much lower than survival over subsequent winters. Focussing on adults only, seasonal survival patterns were largely consistent with higher winter and lower summer survival but varied in its level across years in both species. Our analyses, furthermore, highlight the importance of species-specific time periods for survival. Daubenton's bats showed a much stronger difference in survival between the two seasons than Natterer's bats. In one exceptional winter, the population of Natterer's bats crashed, while the survival of Daubenton's bats declined only moderately. While our results confirm the general seasonal survival pattern typical for hibernating mammals with higher winter than summer survival, they also show that this pattern can be reversed under particular conditions. Overall, our study points toward a high importance of specific time periods for population dynamics and suggests species-, population-, and age class-specific responses to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31380042, year = {2019}, author = {Souza, AF and Longhi, SJ}, title = {Disturbance history mediates climate change effects on subtropical forest biomass and dynamics.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {7184-7199}, pmid = {31380042}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The responses of forest communities to interacting anthropogenic disturbances like climate change and logging are poorly known. Subtropical forests have been heavily modified by humans and their response to climate change is poorly understood. We investigated the 9-year change observed in a mixed conifer-hardwood Atlantic forest mosaic that included both mature and selectively logged forest patches in subtropical South America. We used demographic monitoring data within 10 1 ha plots that were subjected to distinct management histories (plots logged until 1955, until 1987, and unlogged) to test the hypothesis that climate change affected forest structure and dynamics differentially depending on past disturbances. We determined the functional group of all species based on life-history affinities as well as many functional traits like leaf size, specific leaf area, wood density, total height, stem slenderness, and seed size data for the 66 most abundant species. Analysis of climate data revealed that minimum temperatures and rainfall have been increasing in the last few decades of the 20th century. Floristic composition differed mainly with logging history categories, with only minor change over the nine annual census intervals. Aboveground biomass increased in all plots, but increases were higher in mature unlogged forests, which showed signs of forest growth associated with increased CO2, temperature, and rainfall/treefall gap disturbance at the same time. Logged forests showed arrested succession as indicated by reduced abundances of Pioneers and biomass-accumulators like Large Seeded Pioneers and Araucaria, as well as reduced functional diversity. Management actions aimed at creating regeneration opportunities for long-lived pioneers are needed to restore community functional diversity, and ecosystem services such as increased aboveground biomass accumulation. We conclude that the effects of climate drivers on the dynamics of Brazilian mixed Atlantic forests vary with land-use legacies, and can differ importantly from the ones prevalent in better known tropical forests.}, }
@article {pmid31380019, year = {2019}, author = {Bogawski, P and Damen, T and Nowak, MM and Pędziwiatr, K and Wilkin, P and Mwachala, G and Pierzchalska, J and Wiland-Szymańska, J}, title = {Current and future potential distributions of three Dracaena Vand. ex L. species under two contrasting climate change scenarios in Africa.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {6833-6848}, pmid = {31380019}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Forest undergrowth plants are tightly connected with the shady and humid conditions that occur under the canopy of tropical forests. However, projected climatic changes, such as decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, negatively affect understory environments by promoting light-demanding and drought-tolerant species. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the influence of climate change on the spatial distribution of three selected forest undergrowth plants, Dracaena Vand. ex L. species, D. afromontana Mildbr., D. camerooniana Baker, and D. surculosa Lindl., simultaneously creating the most comprehensive location database for these species to date. A total of 1,223 herbarium records originating from tropical Africa and derived from 93 herbarium collections worldwide have been gathered, validated, and entered into a database. Species-specific Maxent species distribution models (SDMs) based on 11 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were developed for the species. HadGEM2-ES projections of bioclimatic variables in two contrasting representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, were used to quantify the changes in future potential species distribution. D. afromontana is mostly sensitive to temperature in the wettest month, and its potential geographical range is predicted to decrease (up to -63.7% at RCP8.5). Optimum conditions for D. camerooniana are low diurnal temperature range (6-8°C) and precipitation in the wettest season exceeding 750 mm. The extent of this species will also decrease, but not as drastically as that of D. afromontana. D. surculosa prefers high precipitation in the coldest months. Its potential habitat area is predicted to increase in the future and to expand toward the east. This study developed SDMs and estimated current and future (year 2050) potential distributions of the forest undergrowth Dracaena species. D. afromontana, naturally associated with mountainous plant communities, was the most sensitive to predicted climate warming. In contrast, D. surculosa was predicted to extend its geographical range, regardless of the climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid31380015, year = {2019}, author = {Mo, Y and Kearney, MS and Turner, RE}, title = {Feedback of coastal marshes to climate change: Long-term phenological shifts.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {6785-6797}, pmid = {31380015}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Coastal marshes are important carbon sinks facing serious threats from climatic stressors. Current research reveals that the growth of individual marsh plants is susceptible to a changing climate, but the responses of different marsh systems at a landscape scale are less clear. Here, we document the multi-decadal changes in the phenology and the area of the extensive coastal marshes in Louisiana, USA, a representative of coastal ecosystems around the world that currently experiencing sea-level rise, temperature warming, and atmospheric CO 2 increase. The phenological records are constructed using the longest continuous satellite-based record of the Earth's ecosystems, the Landsat data, and an advanced modeling technique, the nonlinear mixed model. We find that the length of the growing seasons of the intermediate and brackish marshes increased concomitantly with the atmospheric CO 2 concentration over the last 30 years, and predict that such changes will continue and accelerate in the future. These phenological changes suggest a potential increase in CO 2 uptake and thus a negative feedback mechanism to climate change. The areas of the freshwater and intermediate marshes were stable over the period studied, but the areas of the brackish and saline marshes decreased substantially, suggesting ecosystem instability and carbon storage loss under the anticipated sea-level rise. The marshes' phenological shifts portend their potentially critical role in climate mitigation, and the different responses among systems shed light on the underlying mechanisms of such changes.}, }
@article {pmid31379643, year = {2019}, author = {Luo, Y and Zhao, J}, title = {Motivated Attention in Climate Change Perception and Action.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1541}, pmid = {31379643}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Despite the scientific consensus, some people still remain skeptical about climate change. In fact, there is a growing partisan divide over the last decade within the United States in the support for climate policies. Given the same climate evidence, why do some people become concerned while others remain unconvinced? Here we propose a motivated attention framework where socio-political motivations shape visual attention to climate evidence, altering perceptions of the evidence and subsequent actions to mitigate climate change. To seek support for this framework, we conducted three experiments. Participants viewed a graph of annual global temperature change while they were eyetracked and estimated the average change. We found that political orientation may bias attention to climate change evidence, altering the perception of the same evidence (Experiment 1). We further examined how attentional biases influence subsequent actions to mitigate climate change. We found that liberals were more likely to sign a climate petition or more willing to donate to an environmental organization than conservatives, and attention guides climate actions in different ways for liberals and conservatives (Experiment 2). To seek causal evidence, we biased attention to different parts of the temperature curve by coloring stronger climate evidence in red or weak climate evidence in red. We found that liberals were more likely to sign the petition or more willing to donate when stronger evidence was in red, but conservatives were less likely to act when stronger evidence was in red (Experiment 3). This suggests that drawing attention to motivationally consistent information increases actions in liberals, but discouraged conservatives. The findings provide initial preliminary evidence for the motivated attention framework, suggesting an attentional divide between liberals and conservatives in the perception of climate evidence. This divide might further reinforce prior beliefs about climate change, creating further polarization. The current study raises a possible attentional mechanism for ideologically motivated reasoning and its impact on basic perceptual processes. It also provides implications for the communication of climate science to different socio-political groups with the goal of mobilizing actions on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31379389, year = {2019}, author = {Honda, A and Murakami, S and Harada, M and Tsuchiya, K and Kinoshita, G and Suzuki, H}, title = {Late Pleistocene climate change and population dynamics of Japanese Myodes voles inferred from mitochondrial cytochrome b sequences.}, journal = {Journal of mammalogy}, volume = {100}, number = {4}, pages = {1156-1168}, pmid = {31379389}, issn = {0022-2372}, abstract = {The Japanese archipelago is comprised of four main islands-Hokkaido, Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu-which contain high mountainous areas that likely allowed for lineage differentiation and population genetic structuring during the climatic changes of the late Pleistocene. Here, we assess the historical background of the evolutionary dynamics of herbivorous red-backed voles (Myodes) in Japan, examining the evolutionary trends of mitochondrial cytochrome b gene (Cytb) sequence variation. Four apparent signals from rapid expansion events were detected in three species, M. rufocanus and M. rutilus from Hokkaido and M. smithii from central Honshu. Taken together with results from previous studies on Japanese wood mice (Apodemus spp.), three of the expansion events were considered to be associated with predicted bottleneck events at the marine isotope stage (MIS) 4 period, in which glaciers are thought to have expanded extensively, especially at higher elevations. In the late Pleistocene, the possible candidates are transitions MIS 6/5, MIS 4/3, and MIS 2/1, which can be characterized by the cold periods of the penultimate glacial maximum, MIS 4, and the last glacial maximum, respectively. Our data further reveal the genetic footprints of repeated range expansion and contraction in the northern and southern lineages of the vole species currently found in central Honshu, namely M. andersoni and M. smithii, in response to climatic oscillation during the late Pleistocene. The time-dependent evolutionary rates of the mitochondrial Cytb presented here would provide a possible way for assessing population dynamics of cricetid rodents responding to the late Pleistocene environmental fluctuation.}, }
@article {pmid31378391, year = {2019}, author = {Nugent, R and Fottrell, E}, title = {Non-communicable diseases and climate change: linked global emergencies.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {394}, number = {10199}, pages = {622-623}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31762-3}, pmid = {31378391}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {MR/M016501/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; Noncommunicable Diseases/*prevention &amp; control ; Sustainable Development/economics ; }, }
@article {pmid31377351, year = {2019}, author = {Bartosiewicz, M and Przytulska, A and Deshpande, BN and Antoniades, D and Cortes, A and MacIntyre, S and Lehmann, MF and Laurion, I}, title = {Effects of climate change and episodic heat events on cyanobacteria in a eutrophic polymictic lake.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {693}, number = {}, pages = {133414}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.220}, pmid = {31377351}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/*physiology ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Lakes/*analysis/chemistry/microbiology ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Phytoplankton/*physiology ; Quebec ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Mixing regime and CO2 availability may control cyanobacterial blooms in polymictic lakes, but the underlying mechanisms still remain unclear. We integrated detailed results from a natural experiment comprising an average-wet year (2011) and one with heat waves (2012), a long-term meteorological dataset (1960-2010), historical phosphorus concentrations and sedimentary pigment records, to determine the mechanistic controls of cyanobacterial blooms in a eutrophic polymictic lake. Intense warming in 2012 was associated with: 1) increased stability of the water column with buoyancy frequencies exceeding 40 cph at the surface, 2) high phytoplankton biomass in spring (up to 125 mg WW L[-1]), 3) reduced downward transport of heat and 4) depleted epilimnetic CO2 concentrations. CO2 depletion was maintained by intense uptake by phytoplankton (influx up to 30 mmol m[-2] d[-1]) in combination with reduced, internal and external, carbon inputs during dry, stratified periods. These synergistic effects triggered bloom of buoyant cyanobacteria (up to 300 mg WW L[-1]) in the hot year. Complementary evidence from polynomial regression modelling using historical data and pigment record revealed that warming explains 78% of the observed trends in cyanobacterial biomass, whereas historical phosphorus concentration only 10% thereof. Together the results from the natural experiment and the long-term record indicate that effects of hotter and drier climate are likely to increase water column stratification and decrease CO2 availability in eutrophic polymictic lakes. This combination will catalyze blooms of buoyant cyanobacteria.}, }
@article {pmid31377026, year = {2019}, author = {Spinoit, AF}, title = {Hypospadias increased prevalence in Surveillance Systems for Birth Defects is observed: Next to climate change are we going towards a human fertility alteration?.}, journal = {European urology}, volume = {76}, number = {4}, pages = {491-492}, doi = {10.1016/j.eururo.2019.07.035}, pmid = {31377026}, issn = {1873-7560}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Fertility ; Humans ; *Hypospadias ; Male ; Population Surveillance ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid31374116, year = {2020}, author = {Middendorf, BJ and Prasad, PVV and Pierzynski, GM}, title = {Setting research priorities for tackling climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {71}, number = {2}, pages = {480-489}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erz360}, pmid = {31374116}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; Agriculture/*methods ; Bangladesh ; Cambodia ; *Climate Change ; Research ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Addressing the complex issues related to climate change requires multiple innovative approaches to identify research priorities involving multidisciplinary research teams. Participatory approaches with a variety of perspectives were used to gain insights into critical issues such as defining and understanding sustainable intensification, climate smart agriculture, and soil fertility prioritization in sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis drew on the foundation principles of participatory research and fundamental facilitation skills, while grounded in scientific knowledge and understanding of these complex issues. This approach essentially incorporates the relevant principles of participatory learning and action, primarily designed for development projects, with a new set of players within the research and policy domain. The results of three case studies that utilized participatory techniques with a set of multidisciplinary research teams are presented. The case studies were: (i) Feed the Future Sustainable Intensification Innovation Lab (SIIL) proposal development grounded in country-led and national priorities in Bangladesh, Tanzania, and Cambodia; (ii) climate smart agriculture and sustainable intensification assessment and priority setting in Rwanda; and (iii) soil fertility prioritization in sub-Saharan Africa. We discuss how the future directions of such initiatives were shaped for improved outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid31373473, year = {2019}, author = {Sakamoto, R and Tanimoto, T and Takahashi, K and Hamaki, T and Kusumi, E and Crump, A}, title = {Flourishing Japanese Encephalitis, Associated with Global Warming and Urbanisation in Asia, Demands Widespread Integrated Vaccination Programmes.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {85}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {31373473}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {Asia ; *Developed Countries ; *Developing Countries ; Encephalitis, Japanese/*prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Global Warming ; Humans ; *Immunization Programs ; Mosquito Vectors ; Urbanization ; }, }
@article {pmid31372845, year = {2020}, author = {Lewandowsky, S and Cook, J and Fay, N and Gignac, GE}, title = {Correction to: Science by social media: Attitudes towards climate change are mediated by perceived social consensus.}, journal = {Memory &amp; cognition}, volume = {48}, number = {1}, pages = {171}, doi = {10.3758/s13421-019-00965-x}, pmid = {31372845}, issn = {1532-5946}, abstract = {Confidence intervals and regression lines were omitted from Fig. 1 in this article as originally published. This error was introduced during production. The original article has been corrected.}, }
@article {pmid31370308, year = {2019}, author = {Cabral, H and Fonseca, V and Sousa, T and Costa Leal, M}, title = {Synergistic Effects of Climate Change and Marine Pollution: An Overlooked Interaction in Coastal and Estuarine Areas.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {15}, pages = {}, pmid = {31370308}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Oceans and Seas ; Water Pollution, Chemical/*adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Coastal areas have been increasingly affected by human activities, marine pollution and climate change are among the most important pressures affecting these environments. Human-induced pressures occur in a cumulative way and generate additive, antagonistic or synergistic effects. Knowledge on synergistic effects is crucial to coastal zone management, since they may imply a change in human uses of these systems, as well as dedicated action plans in order to reduce hazards and environmental risks. In this work, we provide an overview of the available literature on synergistic effects between climate change and chemical pollution, and discuss current knowledge, methodological approaches, and research gaps and needs. Interactions between these two pressures may be climate change dominant (climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure or toxicity) or contaminant-dominant (chemical exposure leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility), but the mechanistic drivers of such processes are not well known. Results from a few meta-analyses studies and reviews showed that synergistic interactions tend to be more frequent compared to additive and antagonistic ones. However, most of the studies are individual-based and assess the cumulative effects of a few contaminants individually in laboratory settings together with few climate variables, particularly temperature and pH. Nevertheless, a wide diversity of contaminants have already been individually tested, spanning from metals, persistent organic pollutants and, more recently, emergent pollutants. Population and community based approaches are less frequent but have generated very interesting and more holistic perspectives. Methodological approaches are quite diverse, from laboratory studies to mesocosm and field studies, or based on statistical or modelling tools, each with their own potential and limitations. More holistic comparisons integrating several pressures and their combinations and a multitude of habitats, taxa, life-stages, among others, are needed, as well as insights from meta-analyses and systematic reviews.}, }
@article {pmid31369172, year = {2019}, author = {Crosman, KM and Bostrom, A and Hayes, AL}, title = {Efficacy Foundations for Risk Communication: How People Think About Reducing the Risks of Climate Change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {39}, number = {10}, pages = {2329-2347}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13334}, pmid = {31369172}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {P2C HD042828/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; T32 HD007543/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Risk Assessment ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {Believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self-efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts, according to current risk communication theory. Although the public recognizes the dangers of climate change, and is deluged with lists of possible mitigative actions, little is known about public efficacy beliefs in the context of climate change. Prior efficacy studies rely on conflicting constructs and measures of efficacy, and links between efficacy and risk management actions are muddled. As a result, much remains to learn about how laypersons think about the ease and effectiveness of potential mitigative actions. To bring clarity and inform risk communication and management efforts, we investigate how people think about efficacy in the context of climate change risk management by analyzing unprompted and prompted beliefs from two national surveys (N = 405, N = 1,820). In general, respondents distinguish little between effective and ineffective climate strategies. While many respondents appreciate that reducing fossil fuel use is an effective risk mitigation strategy, overall assessments reflect persistent misconceptions about climate change causes, and uncertainties about the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Our findings suggest targeting climate change risk communication and management strategies to (1) address gaps in people's existing mental models of climate action, (2) leverage existing public understanding of both potentially effective mitigation strategies and the collective action dilemma at the heart of climate change action, and (3) take into account ideologically driven reactions to behavior change and government action framed as climate action.}, }
@article {pmid31367486, year = {2019}, author = {da Silva, JMC and Rapini, A and Barbosa, LCF and Torres, RR}, title = {Extinction risk of narrowly distributed species of seed plants in Brazil due to habitat loss and climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7333}, pmid = {31367486}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {In a world where changes in land cover and climate happen faster than ever due to the expansion of human activities, narrowly distributed species are predicted to be the first to go extinct. Studies projecting species extinction in tropical regions consider either habitat loss or climate change as drivers of biodiversity loss but rarely evaluate them together. Here, the contribution of these two factors to the extinction risk of narrowly distributed species (with ranges smaller than 10,000 km[2]) of seed plants endemic to a fifth-order watershed in Brazil (microendemics) is assessed. We estimated the Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) of these watersheds (areas with microendemics) and projected three scenarios of land use up to the year 2100 based on the average annual rates of habitat loss in these watersheds from 2000 to 2014. These scenarios correspond to immediate conservation action (scenario 1), long-term conservation action (scenario 2), and no conservation action (scenario 3). In each scenario, areas with microendemics were classified into four classes: (1) areas with low risk, (2) areas threatened by habitat loss, (3) areas threatened by climate change, and (4) areas threatened by climate change and habitat loss. We found 2,354 microendemic species of seed plants in 776 areas that altogether cover 17.5% of Brazil. Almost 70% (1,597) of these species are projected to be under high extinction risk by the end of the century due to habitat loss, climate change, or both, assuming that these areas will not lose habitat in the future due to land use. However, if habitat loss in these areas continues at the prevailing annual rates, the number of threatened species is projected to increase to more than 85% (2,054). The importance of climate change and habitat loss as drivers of species extinction varies across phytogeographic domains, and this variation requires the adoption of retrospective and prospective conservation strategies that are context specific. We suggest that tropical countries, such as Brazil, should integrate biodiversity conservation and climate change policies (both mitigation and adaptation) to achieve win-win social and environmental gains while halting species extinction.}, }
@article {pmid31364581, year = {2019}, author = {Logar-Henderson, C and Ling, R and Tuite, AR and Fisman, DN}, title = {Effects of large-scale oceanic phenomena on non-cholera vibriosis incidence in the United States: implications for climate change.}, journal = {Epidemiology and infection}, volume = {147}, number = {}, pages = {e243}, pmid = {31364581}, issn = {1469-4409}, mesh = {Animals ; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. ; Cholera/diagnosis/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; *Disease Outbreaks ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Humans ; Incidence ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk ; Risk Assessment ; Seasons ; United States ; Vibrio Infections/*diagnosis/*epidemiology ; Vibrio cholerae/*isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {Non-cholera Vibrio (NCV) species are important causes of disease. These pathogens are thermophilic and climate change could increase the risk of NCV infection. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a 'natural experiment' that may presage ocean warming effects on disease incidence. In order to evaluate possible climatic contributions to observed increases in NCV infection, we obtained NCV case counts for the United States from publicly available surveillance data. Trends and impacts of large-scale oceanic phenomena, including ENSO, were evaluated using negative binomial and distributed non-linear lag models (DNLM). Associations between latitude and changing risk were evaluated with meta-regression. Trend models demonstrated expected seasonality (P < 0.001) and a 7% (6.1%-8.1%) annual increase in incidence from 1999 to 2014. DNLM demonstrated increased vibriosis risk following ENSO conditions over the subsequent 12 months (relative risk 1.940, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.298-2.901). The 'relative-relative risk' (RRR) of annual disease incidence increased with latitude (RRR per 10° increase 1.066, 95% CI 1.027-1.107). We conclude that NCV risk in the United States is impacted by ocean warming, which is likely to intensify with climate change, increasing NCV risk in vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid31363452, year = {2019}, author = {Rossiello, MR and Szema, A}, title = {Health Effects of Climate Change-induced Wildfires and Heatwaves.}, journal = {Cureus}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {e4771}, pmid = {31363452}, issn = {2168-8184}, abstract = {Global warming is a phenomenon that is affecting society in sundry ways. As of 2017, Earth's global surface temperature increased 0.9°C compared to the average temperature in the mid-1900s. Beyond this change in temperature lies significant threats to human health in the form of natural disasters and extreme temperatures. One natural disaster that has been receiving much more attention as of 2010 is the ignition and spread of wildfires. Warmer climates lead to drier conditions, providing ideal kindling for the rapid spread of these infernos. The dangers that these intense fires pose are twofold: first, the fire causes mass property damage, physical harm, or death to the people unfortunate enough to be caught in the blaze; second, the health hazards of smoke inhalation and the emotional strain of losing one's possessions cause immense physical and emotional harm to the fire's victims. Another health hazard that is becoming more common due to global warming is heatwave exposure. The heat provides an ideal environment for certain pathogens to thrive, increases people's risk of developing temperature-related health conditions, and could exacerbate many preexisting diseases. The increase in frequency and intensity of these extreme weather conditions calls for devotion of resources to fire prevention and public health measures related to smoke inhalation and heat exposure.}, }
@article {pmid31362226, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, Y and Wang, Y and Chen, Y and Liang, F and Liu, H}, title = {Assessment of future flash flood inundations in coastal regions under climate change scenarios-A case study of Hadahe River basin in northeastern China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {693}, number = {}, pages = {133550}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.356}, pmid = {31362226}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change may considerably influence flash floods by increasing extreme precipitation. Coastal regions in eastern and southern China may experience especially negative effects because of the frequent occurrence of tropical cyclones (TCs). This study presented a hazard assessment framework for TCs-induced flash floods under climate change scenarios and assessed future inundations in Hadahe River basin, which is in northeastern China. From 1965 to 2014, there were twenty-four TCs ranging from severe tropical storm to super typhoon over Hadahe River basin in twenty years. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are too coarse to depict the impact of TCs on extreme precipitation; therefore, hourly precipitation data from two gauges and the tracks of TCs were used to assess the impact of TCs. An extreme precipitation event on 3-4 August 2012 and the same 600-year future probabilistic extreme rainfall were utilized to investigate the impact of climate change. Daily precipitation data from eight climate models from the NEX-GDDP dataset during 1965-2005 and 2050-2099 represented historical and future simulation conditions, respectively. The hydrologic model HEC-HMS was integrated with the hydraulic model FLO-2D to simulate discharges and inundations of past and future TCs episodes. The results showed that flooded area is projected to increase by 6.6% and 7.8% for inundation depth between 1.0 and 3.0 m under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. For inundation depth over 3.0 m, flooded area is projected to increase by 17.6% and 22.0%. Relative change of flash flood extent increases as inundation depth increases, indicating that climate change is likely to increase the risk of flash floods. Additional adaptation measures are needed to make the Hadahe River basin and other similar coastal basins more resilient. The results also indicated that considering the impact of TCs produces a more reliable assessment of future flash floods in coastal regions.}, }
@article {pmid31360673, year = {2019}, author = {Patella, V and Florio, G and Magliacane, D and Giuliano, A and Russo, LF and D'Amato, V and De Luca, V and Iaccarino, G and Illario, M and Bousquet, J}, title = {Public Prevention Plans to Manage Climate Change and Respiratory Allergic Diseases. Innovative Models Used in Campania Region (Italy): The Twinning Aria Implementation and the Allergy Safe Tree Decalogue.}, journal = {Translational medicine @ UniSa}, volume = {19}, number = {}, pages = {95-102}, pmid = {31360673}, issn = {2239-9747}, abstract = {In recent years, climate change has been influenced by air pollution, and this destructive combination has justifiably sounded an alarm for nations and many institutional bodies worldwide. Official reports state that the emission of greenhouse gases produced by human activity are growing, and consequently also the average temperature. The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that health effects expected in the future due to climate change will be dramatic, and has invited international groups to investigate potential remedies. A task force has been established by the Italian Society of Allergology, Asthma and Clinical Immunology (SIAAIC), with the aim to actively work on correlation between pollution and climate change. The Task Force provided prevention tools to suggest city leaders how to improve the health conditions of allergic people in public urban parks. The "Allergy Safe Tree Decalogue" suggests the preparation and maintenance of public low allergy-impact greenery. Through the Twinning ARIA project, the Division for the Promotion and Enhancement of Health Innovation Programs of Campania Region (Italy), sought to promote the implementation of the project in the regional Health System. The main objective will be to investigate the current use and usefulness of mobile phone Apps in the management of allergic respiratory disease, through Mobile Airways Sentinel networK (MASK), the Phase 3 of the ARIA initiative, based on the freely available MASK App (the Allergy Diary, Android and iOS platforms). The effects of these prevention activities will be registered and compared with monitoring efforts thanks to the Aerobiology Units, located throughout the Campania area. A joint effort between researchers and public administrations for the implementation of prevention plans coherently with the two models proposed in a specific area, i.e. the Decalogue for public administrations and the MASK Allergy Diary app for individual patients suffering from allergy, will be implemented as a pilot.}, }
@article {pmid31359837, year = {2019}, author = {Bertoldo, R and Mays, C and Böhm, G and Poortinga, W and Poumadère, M and Tvinnereim, E and Arnold, A and Steentjes, K and Pidgeon, N}, title = {Scientific truth or debate: On the link between perceived scientific consensus and belief in anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {778-796}, doi = {10.1177/0963662519865448}, pmid = {31359837}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Scientists overwhelmingly agree that climate change exists and is caused by human activity. It has been argued that communicating the consensus can counter climate scepticism, given that perceived scientific consensus is a major factor predicting public belief that climate change is anthropogenic. However, individuals may hold different models of science, potentially affecting their interpretation of scientific consensus. Using representative surveys in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Norway, we assessed whether the relationship between perceived scientific consensus and belief in anthropogenic climate change is conditioned by a person's viewing science as 'the search for truth' or as 'debate'. Results show that perceived scientific consensus is higher among climate change believers and moreover, significantly predicts belief in anthropogenic climate change. This relationship is stronger among people holding a model of science as the 'search for truth'. These results help to disentangle the effect of implicit epistemological assumptions underlying the public understanding of the climate change debate.}, }
@article {pmid31359830, year = {2019}, author = {Duan, R and Takahashi, B and Zwickle, A}, title = {Abstract or concrete? The effect of climate change images on people's estimation of egocentric psychological distance.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {828-844}, doi = {10.1177/0963662519865982}, pmid = {31359830}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Climate change has been widely perceived as a psychologically distant risk, largely viewed as separated from one's direct experience. Using construal-level theory, we examined how the level of abstraction and concreteness of climate change imagery affects viewers' perceived psychological distance of climate change, including spatial, temporal, social, and hypothetical (level of uncertainty) distances. Participants (n = 402) were randomly assigned to one of two experimental conditions, one with abstract images and one with concrete images. Results show that the abstract and concrete images successfully activated people's abstract and concrete mind-sets, respectively, and people who viewed abstract images were more likely to perceive climate change as a spatially and temporally distant issue.}, }
@article {pmid31359147, year = {2019}, author = {Talchabhadel, R and Karki, R}, title = {Assessing climate boundary shifting under climate change scenarios across Nepal.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {8}, pages = {520}, pmid = {31359147}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agriculture/trends ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production/trends ; *Droughts ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nepal ; Seasons ; Soil/chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This study assesses the climate boundary shifts from the historical time to near/mid future by using a slightly modified Köppen-Geiger (KG) classification scheme and presents comprehensive pictures of historical (1960-1990) and projected near/mid future (1950s: 2040-2060/1970s: 2060-2080) climate classes across Nepal. Ensembles of three selected general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used for projected future analysis. During the 1950s, annual average temperature is expected to increase by 2.5 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, during the 1970s, it is even anticipated to rise by 3.6 °C under RCP 8.5. The rate of temperature rise is higher in the non-monsoon period than in monsoon period. During the 1970s, annual precipitation is projected to increase by 8.1% under RCP 8.5. Even though the precipitation is anticipated to increase in the future in annual scale, winter seasons are estimated to be drier by more than 15%. This study shows significant increments of tropical (Am and Aw) and arid (BSk) climate types and reductions of temperate (Cwa and Cwb) and polar (ET and EF). Noticeably, the reduction of the areal coverage of polar frost (EF) is considerably high. In general, about 50% of the country's area is covered by the temperate climate (Cwa and Cwb) in baseline scenario and it is expected to reduce to 45% under RCP 4.5 and 42.5% under RCP 8.5 during the 1950s, and 42% under RCP 4.5 and 39% under RCP 8.5 during the 1970s. Importantly, the degree of climate boundary shifts is quite higher under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5, and likewise, the degree is higher during the 1970s than the 1950s. We believe this study to facilitate the identification of regions in which impacts of climate change are notable for crop production, soil management, and disaster risk reduction, requiring a more detailed assessment of adaptation measures. The assessment of climate boundary shifting can serve as valuable information for stakeholders of many disciplines like water, climate, transport, energy, environment, disaster, development, agriculture, and tourism.}, }
@article {pmid31359093, year = {2019}, author = {Weaver, CP and Miller, CA}, title = {A Framework for Climate Change-Related Research to Inform Environmental Protection.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {64}, number = {3}, pages = {245-257}, pmid = {31359093}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Interdisciplinary Research ; }, abstract = {A critical charge for science to inform environmental protection is to characterize the risks associated with climate change, to support development of appropriate responses. The nature of climate change, however, presents significant challenges that must be overcome to do so, including the need for integration and synthesis across the many disciplines that contain knowledge relevant for achieving environmental protection goals. This paper describes an interdisciplinary research framework organized around three "Science Challenges" that directly respond to the needs of environmental protection organizations. Broadly, these Science Challenges refer to the research needed to: inform actions to enhance resilience across a broad range of environmental and social stresses to environmental management endpoints; actions to limit GHG emissions and slow the underlying rate of climate change; and the transition to sustainability across the full spectrum of climate change impacts and solutions; all as situated within an overarching risk management perspective. These Challenges span all media and systems critical to effective environmental protection, highlighting the cross-cutting nature of climate change and the need to address its impacts across systems and places. While this framework uses EPA's programs as an illustrative example, the research directions articulated herein are broadly applicable across the spectrum of environmental protection organizations. Going forward, we recommend that climate-related research to inform environmental protection efforts should accelerate its evolution toward research that is inherently cross-media and cross-scale; explicitly considers the social dimensions of change; and focuses on designing solutions to the specific risks climate change poses to the environment and society.}, }
@article {pmid31358788, year = {2019}, author = {Kakumanu, ML and Ma, L and Williams, MA}, title = {Drought-induced soil microbial amino acid and polysaccharide change and their implications for C-N cycles in a climate change world.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {10968}, pmid = {31358788}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Amino Acids/*analysis ; Bacteria/*metabolism ; Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Cycle ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Nitrogen Cycle ; Polysaccharides, Bacterial/*analysis ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {High microbial carbon (MBC) demand, a proxy for energy demand (cost), during soil microbial response to stressors such as drought are a major gap in understanding global biogeochemical cycling of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). The dynamics of two dominant microbial pools (amino acids; AA and exopolymeric substances; EPS) in soils exposed to drying and C and N amendment to mimic both low and high nutrient soil habitats were examined. It was hypothesized that dynamics of EPS and AA (osmolytes) would be greater when soil drying was preceded by a pulse of bioavailable C and N. Drying reduced AA content, even as overall soil MBC increased (~35%). The increase in absolute amounts and mol% of certain AA (eg: Taurine, glutamine, tyrosine, phenylalanine) in the driest treatment (-10 MPa) were similar in both soils regardless of amendment suggesting a common mechanism underlying the energy intensive acclimation across soils. MBC and EPS, both increased ~1.5X and ~3X due to drying and especially drying associated with amendment. Overall major pools of C and N based microbial metabolites are dynamic to drying (drought), and thus have implications for earth's biogeochemical fluxes of C and N, perhaps costing 4-7% of forest fixed photosynthetic C input during a single drying (drought) period.}, }
@article {pmid31356305, year = {2019}, author = {Paliani, A}, title = {Climate Change Education.}, journal = {The American journal of nursing}, volume = {119}, number = {8}, pages = {10}, doi = {10.1097/01.NAJ.0000577348.86760.b3}, pmid = {31356305}, issn = {1538-7488}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid31354775, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, Y and Zhao, J and Zhao, P and Wang, H and Wang, B and Su, S and Li, M and Wang, L and Zhu, Q and Pang, Z and Peng, C}, title = {Trait-Based Climate Change Predictions of Vegetation Sensitivity and Distribution in China.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {908}, pmid = {31354775}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) suffer insufficiencies in tracking biochemical cycles and ecosystem fluxes. One important reason for these insufficiencies is that DGVMs use fixed parameters (mostly traits) to distinguish attributes and functions of plant functional types (PFTs); however, these traits vary under different climatic conditions. Therefore, it is urgent to quantify trait covariations, including those among specific leaf area (SLA), area-based leaf nitrogen (N area), and leaf area index (LAI) (in 580 species across 218 sites in this study), and explore new classification methods that can be applied to model vegetation dynamics under future climate change scenarios. We use a redundancy analysis (RDA) to derive trait-climate relationships and employ a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to project vegetation distributions under different climate scenarios. The results show that (1) the three climatic variables, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and monthly photosynthetically active radiation (mPAR) could capture 65% of the covariations of three functional traits; (2) tropical, subtropical and temperate forest complexes expand while boreal forest, temperate steppe, temperate scrub and tundra shrink under future climate change scenarios; and (3) the GMM classification based on trait covariations should be a powerful candidate for building new generation of DGVM, especially predicting the response of vegetation to future climate changes. This study provides a promising route toward developing reliable, robust and realistic vegetation models and can address a series of limitations in current models.}, }
@article {pmid31352297, year = {2019}, author = {Azani, N and Bruneau, A and Wojciechowski, MF and Zarre, S}, title = {Corrigendum to "Miocene climate change as a driving force for multiple origins of annual species in Astragalus (Fabaceae, Papilionoideae)" [Mol. Phylogenet. Evol. 137 (2019) 210-221].}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {139}, number = {}, pages = {106566}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2019.106566}, pmid = {31352297}, issn = {1095-9513}, }
@article {pmid31352276, year = {2019}, author = {Li, X and Mao, F and Du, H and Zhou, G and Xing, L and Liu, T and Han, N and Liu, Y and Zhu, D and Zheng, J and Dong, L and Zhang, M}, title = {Spatiotemporal evolution and impacts of climate change on bamboo distribution in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {248}, number = {}, pages = {109265}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109265}, pmid = {31352276}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding the impact and restriction of climate change on potential distribution of bamboo forest is crucial for sustainable management of bamboo forest and bamboo-based economic development. In this study, climatic variables and maximum entropy model were used to simulate the potential distribution of bamboo forest in China under the future climate scenarios. Seven climatic variables, such as Spring precipitation, Summer precipitation, Autumn precipitation, average annual relative humidity, Autumn average temperature, average annual temperature range and annual total radiation, were selected as input variables of maximum entropy model based on the relative importance of those climate variables for predicting bamboo forest presence. The suitable ranges of the seven climatic variables for potential distribution of bamboo forest were 337-794 mm, 496-705 mm, 213-929 mm, 74.3%-83.4%, 16.6-23.8 °C, 2.3-10.1 °C and 3.2 × 10[4]-4.3 × 10[4] W m[-2], respectively. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the suitable area of bamboo forest growth first increased and then decreased, and showed range contractions towards the interior and expansions towards southwest in China. The results of the present study can serve as a useful reference to dynamic monitoring of the spatial distribution and sustainable utilization of bamboo forest in the future under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31351296, year = {2019}, author = {Lefebvre, G and Redmond, L and Germain, C and Palazzi, E and Terzago, S and Willm, L and Poulin, B}, title = {Predicting the vulnerability of seasonally-flooded wetlands to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {692}, number = {}, pages = {546-555}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.263}, pmid = {31351296}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Wetlands have been declining worldwide over the last century with climate change becoming an additional pressure, especially in regions already characterized by water deficit. This paper investigates how climate change will affect the values and functions of Mediterranean seasonally-flooded wetlands with emergent vegetation. We simulated the future evolution of water balance, wetland condition and water volumes necessary to maintain these ecosystems at mid- and late- 21st century, in 229 localities around the Mediterranean basin. We considered future projections of the relevant climatic variables under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios assuming a stabilization (RCP4.5) or increase (RCP 8.5) of greenhouse gases emissions. We found similar increases of water deficits at most localities around 2050 under both RCP scenarios. By 2100, however, water deficits under RCP 8.5 are expected to be more severe and will impact all localities. Simulations performed under current conditions show that 97% of localities could have wetland habitats in good state. By 2050, however, this proportion would decrease to 81% and 68% under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, decreasing further to 52% and 27% by 2100. Our results suggest that wetlands can persist with up to a 400 mm decrease in annual precipitation. Such resilience to climate change is attributed to the semi-permanent character of wetlands (lower evaporation on dry ground) and their capacity to act as reservoir (higher precipitation expected in some countries during winter). Countries at highest risk of wetland degradation and loss are Algeria, Morocco, Portugal and Spain. Degradation of wetlands with emergent vegetation will negatively affect their biodiversity and the services they provide by eliminating animal refuges and primary resources for industry and tourism. A sound strategy to preserve these wetlands would consist of proactive management to reduce non-climate stressors.}, }
@article {pmid31350447, year = {2019}, author = {Sato, T and Nakamura, T}, title = {Intensification of hot Eurasian summers by climate change and land-atmosphere interactions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {10866}, pmid = {31350447}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Persistent abnormal hot weather can cause considerable damage to human society and natural environments. In northern Eurasia, the recent change in summer surface air temperature exhibits a heterogeneous pattern with accelerated warming around the Eastern European Plain and Central Siberia, forming a wave train-like structure. However, the key factors that determine the magnitude and spatial distribution of this summer temperature trend remain unclear. Here, a huge ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations show that the recent summer temperature trend has been intensified by two factors: steady warming induced by external forcing and inhomogeneous warming induced by internal atmosphere-land interactions that amplify quasi-stationary waves. The latter is sensitive to both snow cover and soil moisture anomalies in the spring, suggesting the potential of land surface monitoring for better seasonal prediction of summer temperatures. Dramatic changes in the circumpolar environment, characterised by Eurasian snow variation and Arctic Ocean warming, collectively affect summertime climate via memory effects of the land surface.}, }
@article {pmid31350054, year = {2019}, author = {Baltar, F and Bayer, B and Bednarsek, N and Deppeler, S and Escribano, R and Gonzalez, CE and Hansman, RL and Mishra, RK and Moran, MA and Repeta, DJ and Robinson, C and Sintes, E and Tamburini, C and Valentin, LE and Herndl, GJ}, title = {Towards Integrating Evolution, Metabolism, and Climate Change Studies of Marine Ecosystems.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {34}, number = {11}, pages = {1022-1033}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2019.07.003}, pmid = {31350054}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Global environmental changes are challenging the structure and functioning of ecosystems. However, a mechanistic understanding of how global environmental changes will affect ecosystems is still lacking. The complex and interacting biological and physical processes spanning vast temporal and spatial scales that constitute an ecosystem make this a formidable problem. A unifying framework based on ecological theory, that considers fundamental and realized niches, combined with metabolic, evolutionary, and climate change studies, is needed to provide the mechanistic understanding required to evaluate and forecast the future of marine communities, ecosystems, and their services.}, }
@article {pmid31349129, year = {2020}, author = {Palinkas, LA and Wong, M}, title = {Global climate change and mental health.}, journal = {Current opinion in psychology}, volume = {32}, number = {}, pages = {12-16}, doi = {10.1016/j.copsyc.2019.06.023}, pmid = {31349129}, issn = {2352-2518}, mesh = {Anxiety/psychology ; *Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Depression/psychology ; Droughts ; Extreme Weather ; *Floods ; *Global Health ; Heat Stress Disorders ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Sea Level Rise ; Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/psychology ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Although several empirical studies and systematic reviews have documented the mental health impacts of global climate change, the range of impacts has not been well understood. This review examines mental health impacts of three types of climate-related events: (1) acute events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires; (2) subacute or long-term changes such as drought and heat stress; and (3) the existential threat of long-lasting changes, including higher temperatures, rising sea levels and a permanently altered and potentially uninhabitable physical environment. The impacts represent both direct (i.e. heat stress) and indirect (i.e. economic loss, threats to health and well-being, displacement and forced migration, collective violence and civil conflict, and alienation from a degraded environment) consequences of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31348418, year = {2019}, author = {Storz, MA}, title = {Medical Conferences and Climate Change Mitigation: Challenges, Opportunities, and Omissions.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {61}, number = {10}, pages = {e434-e437}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001681}, pmid = {31348418}, issn = {1536-5948}, mesh = {*Air Travel ; *Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; *Congresses as Topic ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Societies, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid31346284, year = {2018}, author = {Kline, R and Seltzer, N and Lukinova, E and Bynum, A}, title = {Differentiated responsibilities and prosocial behaviour in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature human behaviour}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {653-661}, doi = {10.1038/s41562-018-0418-0}, pmid = {31346284}, issn = {2397-3374}, mesh = {*Altruism ; China ; *Climate Change/economics ; Conservation of Energy Resources/economics ; Cooperative Behavior ; Economic Development ; Humans ; Internationality ; *Social Responsibility ; United States ; }, abstract = {A characteristic feature of the global climate change dilemma is interdependence between the underlying economic development that drives anthropogenic climate change-typically modelled as a common pool resource dilemma[1,2]-and the subsequent dilemma arising from the need to mitigate the negative effects of climate change, often modelled as a public goods dilemma[3,4]. In other words, in a carbon-based economy, causal responsibility for climate change is a byproduct of economic development, and is therefore endogenous to it. To capture this endogeneity, we combine these two dilemmas into a 'compound climate dilemma' and conduct a series of incentivized experiments in the United States and China to test its implications for cooperation and prosocial behaviour. Here we show that, in a differentiated development condition, even while the advantaged parties increase their prosociality relative to an endogenous but homogeneous baseline condition, the accompanying decrease in cooperative behaviour by the disadvantaged parties more than offsets it. Furthermore, compared with exogenous but identically parameterized control conditions, this endogeneity decreases cooperation in the mitigation dilemma. In light of this interdependence, the basis upon which mitigation obligations should be differentiated becomes an additional dimension of conflict, with implications for domestic politics and international negotiations discussed[5,6].}, }
@article {pmid31345416, year = {2019}, author = {Verheecke-Vaessen, C and Diez-Gutierrez, L and Renaud, J and Sumarah, M and Medina, A and Magan, N}, title = {Interacting climate change environmental factors effects on Fusarium langsethiae growth, expression of Tri genes and T-2/HT-2 mycotoxin production on oat-based media and in stored oats.}, journal = {Fungal biology}, volume = {123}, number = {8}, pages = {618-624}, doi = {10.1016/j.funbio.2019.04.008}, pmid = {31345416}, issn = {1878-6146}, support = {BB/P001432/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Avena/*chemistry/*microbiology ; Climate Change ; Food Contamination/analysis ; Food Storage ; Fungal Proteins/*genetics/metabolism ; Fusarium/chemistry/*genetics/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Mycotoxins/*analysis/metabolism ; Seeds/chemistry/microbiology ; T-2 Toxin/analogs &amp; derivatives/analysis/biosynthesis/metabolism ; }, abstract = {This study examined the effect of climate change (CC) abiotic factors of temperature (20, 25, 30 °C), water activity (aw; 0.995, 0.98) and CO2 exposure (400, 1000 ppm) may have on (a) growth, (b) gene expression of biosynthetic toxin genes (Tri5, Tri6, Tri16), and (c) T-2/HT-2 toxins and associated metabolites by Fusarium langsethiae on oat-based media and in stored oats. Lag phases and growth were optimum at 25 °C with freely available water. This was significantly reduced at 30 °C, at 0.98 aw and 1000 ppm CO2 exposure. In oat-based media and stored oats, Tri5 gene expression was reduced in all conditions except 30 °C, 0.98 aw, elevated CO2 where there was a significant (5.3-fold) increase. The Tri6 and Tri16 genes were upregulated, especially in elevated CO2 conditions. Toxin production was higher at 25 °C than 30 °C. In stored oats, at 0.98 aw, elevated CO2 led to a significant increase (73-fold) increase in T2/HT-2 toxin, especially at 30 °C. Nine T-2 and HT-2 related metabolites were detected, including a new dehydro T-2 toxin (which correlated with T-2 production) and the conjugate, HT-2 toxin, glucuronide. This shows that CC factors may have a significant impact on growth and mycotoxin production by F. langsethiae.}, }
@article {pmid31344572, year = {2019}, author = {O'Neill, EA and Rowan, NJ and Fogarty, AM}, title = {Novel use of the alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, as an early-warning indicator to identify climate change ambiguity in aquatic environments using freshwater finfish farming as a case study.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {692}, number = {}, pages = {209-218}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.243}, pmid = {31344572}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Aquaculture ; Chlorophyceae/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Indicators/*physiology ; Fresh Water ; Ireland ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Aquaculture is one of the fastest growing food producing industries in the world. This dramatic increase in growth has raised many environmental concerns. Evaluation of fish farm effluent is frequently assessed by physicochemical parameters. This approach indicates potential degradation caused by the effluent and not cumulative effects on aquatic ecosystems. This study investigated relationships between physicochemical parameters (temperature, pH, conductivity, nitrogen, phosphorus, oxygen and suspended solids), typically used to assess water quality with the Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata algal bioassay, which evaluated the potential ecotoxicological effects that freshwater fish farm effluent has on its receiving ecosystems and organisms. Influent and effluent samples were collected from a freshwater farm facility every two weeks from April 2018 to October 2018 in the Republic of Ireland. This monitoring period coincided with one of the warmest and driest periods recorded by meteorological stations in the Republic of Ireland. Physicochemical analyses were found to be similar to those in other farm studies. After exposure of algae to the effluent, stimulation of algal growth rates increased by >50%. This stimulation was observed during periods of increased temperatures which were as a result of heat wave and drought conditions experienced during monitoring. Correlation studies identified a moderately strong relationship between algal stimulation and temperature (r = -0.619). This study discovered that removal of Lemna minor (aquatic plant), impacted strongly on the freshwater farm pond-process to cope with nitrates. The constructed wetland system was unable to efficiently treat nitrates and phosphates during conditions of drought. These findings indicate that standard water quality parameters may not be applicable to inform appropriate suitability of fish farm effluent for discharge to receiving water. The research conducted in this study has suggested a potential toolbox that includes P. subcapitata may provide an early warning system for adverse effects as a result of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31344391, year = {2019}, author = {Iltis, C and Louâpre, P and Pecharová, K and Thiéry, D and Zito, S and Bois, B and Moreau, J}, title = {Are life-history traits equally affected by global warming? A case study combining a multi-trait approach with fine-grain climate modeling.}, journal = {Journal of insect physiology}, volume = {117}, number = {}, pages = {103916}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinsphys.2019.103916}, pmid = {31344391}, issn = {1879-1611}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; *Global Warming ; *Life History Traits ; Male ; *Models, Biological ; Moths/*physiology ; Pupa/growth &amp; development ; Sex Ratio ; }, abstract = {Predicting species responses to climate change requires tracking the variation in individual performance following exposure to warming conditions. One ecologically relevant approach consists of examining the thermal responses of a large number of traits, both related with population dynamics and trophic interactions (i.e. a multi-trait approach). Based on in situ climatic data and projections from climate models, we here designed two daily fluctuating thermal regimes realistically reflecting current and future conditions in Eastern France. These models detected an increase in mean temperature and in the range of daily thermal fluctuations as two local facets of global warming likely to occur in our study area by the end of this century. We then examined the responses of several fitness-related traits in caterpillars of the moth Lobesia botrana - including development, pupal mass, survival rates, energetic reserves, behavioral and immune traits expressed against parasitoids - to this experimental imitation of global warming. Increasing temperatures positively affected development (leading to a 31% reduction in the time needed to complete larval stage), survival rates (+19%), and movement speed as a surrogate for larval escape ability to natural enemies (+60%). Conversely, warming elicited detrimental effects on lipid reserves (-26%) and immunity (total phenoloxidase activity: -34%). These findings confirm that traits should differ in their sensitivity to global warming, underlying complex consequences for population dynamics and trophic interactions. Our study strengthens the importance of combining a multi-trait approach with the use of realistic fluctuating regimes to forecast the consequences of global warming for individuals, species and species assemblages.}, }
@article {pmid31344307, year = {2019}, author = {Goode, AG and Brady, DC and Steneck, RS and Wahle, RA}, title = {The brighter side of climate change: How local oceanography amplified a lobster boom in the Gulf of Maine.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {11}, pages = {3906-3917}, pmid = {31344307}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Maine ; *Nephropidae ; North America ; Oceanography ; }, abstract = {Ocean warming can drive poleward shifts of commercially important species with potentially significant economic impacts. Nowhere are those impacts greater than in the Gulf of Maine where North America's most valuable marine species, the American lobster (Homarus americanus Milne Edwards), has thrived for decades. However, there are growing concerns that regional maritime economies will suffer as monitored shallow water young-of-year lobsters decline and landings shift to the northeast. We examine how the interplay of ocean warming, tidal mixing, and larval behavior results in a brighter side of climate change. Since the 1980s lobster stocks have increased fivefold. We suggest that this increase resulted from a complex interplay between lobster larvae settlement behavior, climate change, and local oceanographic conditions. Specifically, postlarval sounding behavior is confined to a thermal envelope above 12°C and below 20°C. Summer thermally stratified surface waters in southwestern regions have historically been well within the settlement thermal envelope. Although surface layers are warming fastest in this region, the steep depth-wise temperature gradient caused thermally suitable areas for larval settlement to expand only modestly. This contrasts with the northeast where strong tidal mixing prevents thermal stratification and recent ocean warming has made an expansive area of seabed more favorable for larval settlement. Recent declines in lobster settlement densities observed at shallow monitoring sites correlate with the expanded area of thermally suitable habitat associated with warmer summers. This leads us to hypothesize that the expanded area of suitable habitat may help explain strong lobster population increases in this region over the last decade and offset potential future declines. It also suggests that the fate of fisheries in a changing climate requires understanding local interaction between life stage-specific biological thresholds and finer scale oceanographic processes.}, }
@article {pmid31341729, year = {2019}, author = {Aguilera-Molina, VM and Munguía-Ortega, KK and López-Reyes, E and Martínez-Aquino, A and Ceccarelli, FS}, title = {Climate change and forest plagues: assessing current and future impacts of diprionid sawflies on the pine forests of north-western Mexico.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7220}, pmid = {31341729}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The imminent threat of climate change lies in its potential to disrupt the balance of ecosystems, particularly vulnerable areas such as mountain-top remnant forests. An example of such a fragile ecosystem is the Sierra San Pedro Mártir (SSPM) National Park of Mexico's Baja California state, where high levels of endemism can be found, and which is home to one of the country's few populations of the emblematic Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi). Recent outbreaks of pine-feeding sawfly larvae in SSPM increase the vulnerability of this forest ecosystem, calling for immediate assessments of the severity of this threat. Here, we present a thorough study of the sawfly's biology and distribution, carrying out molecular and morphology-based identification of the species and creating model-based predictions of the species distribution in the area. The sawfly was found to belong to an undescribed species of the genus Zadiprion (family Diprionidae) with a one-year life-cycle. The distribution of this species appears to be restricted to the SSPM national park and it will probably persist for at least another 50 years, even considering the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31340512, year = {2019}, author = {Chua, PL and Dorotan, MM and Sigua, JA and Estanislao, RD and Hashizume, M and Salazar, MA}, title = {Scoping Review of Climate Change and Health Research in the Philippines: A Complementary Tool in Research Agenda-Setting.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {31340512}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Philippines ; *Research ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on human health have been observed and projected in the Philippines as vector-borne and heat-related diseases have and continue to increase. As a response, the Philippine government has given priority to climate change and health as one of the main research funding topics. To guide in identifying more specific research topics, a scoping review was done to complement the agenda-setting process by mapping out the extent of climate change and health research done in the country. Research articles and grey literature published from 1980 to 2017 were searched from online databases and search engines, and a total of 34 quantitative studies were selected. Fifty-three percent of the health topics studied were about mosquito-borne diseases, particularly dengue fever. Seventy-nine percent of the studies reported evidence of positive associations between climate factors and health outcomes. Recommended broad research themes for funding were health vulnerability, health adaptation, and co-benefits. Other notable recommendations were the development of open data and reproducible modeling schemes. In conclusion, the scoping review was useful in providing a background for research agenda-setting; however, additional analyses or consultations should be complementary for added depth.}, }
@article {pmid31337752, year = {2019}, author = {Radchuk, V and Reed, T and Teplitsky, C and van de Pol, M and Charmantier, A and Hassall, C and Adamík, P and Adriaensen, F and Ahola, MP and Arcese, P and Miguel Avilés, J and Balbontin, J and Berg, KS and Borras, A and Burthe, S and Clobert, J and Dehnhard, N and de Lope, F and Dhondt, AA and Dingemanse, NJ and Doi, H and Eeva, T and Fickel, J and Filella, I and Fossøy, F and Goodenough, AE and Hall, SJG and Hansson, B and Harris, M and Hasselquist, D and Hickler, T and Joshi, J and Kharouba, H and Martínez, JG and Mihoub, JB and Mills, JA and Molina-Morales, M and Moksnes, A and Ozgul, A and Parejo, D and Pilard, P and Poisbleau, M and Rousset, F and Rödel, MO and Scott, D and Senar, JC and Stefanescu, C and Stokke, BG and Kusano, T and Tarka, M and Tarwater, CE and Thonicke, K and Thorley, J and Wilting, A and Tryjanowski, P and Merilä, J and Sheldon, BC and Pape Møller, A and Matthysen, E and Janzen, F and Dobson, FS and Visser, ME and Beissinger, SR and Courtiol, A and Kramer-Schadt, S}, title = {Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {3109}, pmid = {31337752}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Phenotype ; Selection, Genetic/physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.}, }
@article {pmid31337723, year = {2019}, author = {Casadevall, A and Kontoyiannis, DP and Robert, V}, title = {On the Emergence of Candida auris: Climate Change, Azoles, Swamps, and Birds.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {31337723}, issn = {2150-7511}, mesh = {Animals ; Antifungal Agents/*pharmacology ; Azoles/*pharmacology ; Birds/*microbiology ; Candida/*drug effects/*pathogenicity ; Candidiasis/microbiology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/microbiology ; Drug Resistance, Multiple, Fungal ; Humans ; Microbial Sensitivity Tests ; Phylogeny ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The most enigmatic aspect of the rise of Candida auris as a human pathogen is that it emerged simultaneously on three continents, with each clade being genetically distinct. Although new pathogenic fungal species are described regularly, these are mostly species associated with single cases in individuals who are immunosuppressed. In this study, we used phylogenetic analysis to compare the temperature susceptibility of C. auris with those of its close relatives and to use these results to argue that it may be the first example of a new fungal disease emerging from climate change, with the caveat that many other factors may have contributed.}, }
@article {pmid31332869, year = {2019}, author = {McCauley, LA and Robles, MD and Woolley, T and Marshall, RM and Kretchun, A and Gori, DF}, title = {Large-scale forest restoration stabilizes carbon under climate change in Southwest United States.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {e01979}, pmid = {31332869}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//Anne Ray Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {Arizona ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fires ; Southwestern United States ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Higher tree density, more fuels, and a warmer, drier climate have caused an increase in the frequency, size, and severity of wildfires in western U.S. forests. There is an urgent need to restore forests across the western United States. To address this need, the U.S. Forest Service began the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI) to restore four national forests in Arizona. The objective of this study was to evaluate how restoration of ~400,000 ha under the 4FRI program and projected climate change would influence carbon dynamics and wildfire severity from 2010 to 2099. Specifically, we estimated forest carbon fluxes, carbon pools and wildfire severity under a moderate and fast 4FRI implementation schedule and compared those to status quo and no-harvest scenarios using the LANDIS-II simulation model and climate change projections. We found that the fast-4FRI scenario showed early decreases in ecosystem carbon due to initial thinning/prescribed fire treatments, but total ecosystem carbon increased by 9-18% over no harvest by the end of the simulation. This increased carbon storage by 6.3-12.7 million metric tons, depending on the climate model, equating to removal of carbon emissions from 55,000 to 110,000 passenger vehicles per year until the end of the century. Nearly half of the additional carbon was stored in more stable soil pools. However, climate models with the largest predicted temperature increases showed declines by late century in ecosystem carbon despite restoration. Our study uses data from a real-world, large-scale restoration project and indicates that restoration is likely to stabilize carbon and the benefits are greater when the pace of restoration is faster.}, }
@article {pmid31331441, year = {2019}, author = {Yan, SM and Wu, G}, title = {Impact of Temperature on Influenza A Status during Global Warming Hiatus.}, journal = {Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES}, volume = {32}, number = {7}, pages = {554-557}, doi = {10.3967/bes2019.073}, pmid = {31331441}, issn = {2214-0190}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Animals ; Birds/virology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Infant ; Influenza A virus ; Influenza, Human/*epidemiology ; Middle Aged ; Orthomyxoviridae Infections/*epidemiology ; *Temperature ; Young Adult ; }, }
@article {pmid31329608, year = {2019}, author = {Cheung, C and Zhang, H and Hepburn, JC and Yang, DY and Richards, MP}, title = {Stable isotope and dental caries data reveal abrupt changes in subsistence economy in ancient China in response to global climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0218943}, pmid = {31329608}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Archaeology/*history ; Bone and Bones/chemistry ; Carbon Isotopes/*chemistry ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/history ; Dental Caries/diagnosis/physiopathology ; Diet ; Edible Grain/chemistry ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; Millets/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat's emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4- based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500-4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre-to post-4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region.}, }
@article {pmid31329592, year = {2019}, author = {Han, P and Lin, X and Zhang, W and Wang, G and Wang, Y}, title = {Projected changes of alpine grassland carbon dynamics in response to climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0215261}, pmid = {31329592}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Grassland ; *Models, Biological ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau is an important component of the global carbon cycle due to the large permafrost carbon pool and its vulnerability to climate warming. The Tibetan Plateau has experienced a noticeable warming over the past few decades and is projected to continue warming in the future. However, the direction and magnitude of carbon fluxes responses to climate change and elevated CO2 concentration under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios in the Tibetan Plateau grassland are poorly known. Here, we used a calibrated and validated biogeochemistry model, CENTURY, to quantify the contributions of climate change and elevated CO2 on the future carbon budget in the alpine grassland under three RCP scenarios. Though the Tibetan Plateau grassland was projected a net carbon sink of 16 ~ 25 Tg C yr-1 in the 21st century, the capacity of carbon sequestration was predicted to decrease gradually because climate-driven increases in heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (with linear slopes 0.49 ~ 1.62 g C m-2 yr-1) was greater than the net primary production (NPP) (0.35 ~ 1.52 g C m-2 yr-1). However, the elevated CO2 contributed more to plant growth (1.9% ~ 7.3%) than decomposition (1.7% ~ 6.1%), which could offset the warming-induced carbon loss. The interannual and decadal-scale dynamics of the carbon fluxes in the alpine grassland were primarily controlled by temperature, while the role of precipitation became increasingly important in modulating carbon cycle. The strengthened correlation between precipitation and carbon budget suggested that further research should consider the performance of precipitation in evaluating carbon dynamics in a warmer climate scenario.}, }
@article {pmid31326760, year = {2019}, author = {Graham, H and de Bell, S and Hanley, N and Jarvis, S and White, PCL}, title = {Willingness to pay for policies to reduce future deaths from climate change: evidence from a British survey.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {110-117}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2019.06.001}, pmid = {31326760}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {Adult ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Forecasting ; Health Policy/*economics ; Humans ; Male ; *Public Health ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Without urgent action, climate change will put the health of future populations at risk. Policies to reduce these risks require support from today's populations; however, there are few studies assessing public support for such policies. Willingness to pay (WtP), a measure of the maximum a person is prepared to pay for a defined benefit, is widely used to assess public support for policies. We used WtP to investigate whether there is public support to reduce future health risks from climate change and if individual and contextual factors affect WtP, including perceptions of the seriousness of the impacts of climate change.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional British survey.<br><br>METHODS: Questions about people's WtP for policies to reduce future climate change-related deaths and their perceptions of the seriousness of climate change impacts were included in a British survey of adults aged 16 years and over (n=1859). We used contingent valuation, a survey-based method for eliciting WtP for outcomes like health which do not have a direct market value.<br><br>RESULTS: The majority (61%) were willing to pay to reduce future increases in climate change-related deaths in Britain. Those regarding climate change impacts as not at all serious were less willing to pay than those regarding the impacts as extremely serious (OR 0.04, 95% CI 0.02-0.09). Income was also related to WtP; the highest-income group were twice as likely to be willing to pay as the lowest-income group (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.40-3.29).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There was public support for policies to address future health impacts of climate change; the level of support varied with people's perceptions of the seriousness of these impacts and their financial circumstances. Our study adds to evidence that health, including the health of future populations, is an outcome that people value and suggests that framing climate change around such values may help to accelerate action.}, }
@article {pmid31326726, year = {2019}, author = {Xu, T and Li, K and Engel, BA and Jia, H and Leng, L and Sun, Z and Yu, SL}, title = {Optimal adaptation pathway for sustainable low impact development planning under deep uncertainty of climate change: A greedy strategy.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {248}, number = {}, pages = {109280}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109280}, pmid = {31326726}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Prospective Studies ; *Social Planning ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Robustness and cost effectiveness are major concerns for sustainable stormwater management under deep uncertainty of climate change. Given that many traditional static planning strategies are not working with unpredictable future conditions, the possibility of system failure, and the lock-in effects, the Adaptation Pathway (AP) approach was adopted for dynamically robust and cost-effective planning in this paper. In order to increase optimization accuracy of multi-staged planning, a continuous definition of the AP optimization problem was raised by improving the simplified versions in existing studies. A case study in Suzhou, a provincial pilot Sponge City in China undergoing increasing annual rainfall and severe water environment deterioration, was included by integrating Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development model with optimization methods, aiming to persistently control the non-point source total phosphorus loading below an acceptable amount in the following unforeseen 20 years via multi-staged low-impact development (LID) construction. A novel optimization method developed by the authors in a companion paper, namely marginal-cost-based greedy strategy (MCGS), was successfully applied to efficiently solve the continuous version of the AP optimization problem. The popular genetic algorithm (GA) was used as a contrast. A weather generator was elaborated based on four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and 17 spatial downscaled general circulation models to simulate the unforeseen future annual rainfalls that helped with evaluating cost effectiveness of each prospective LID plan. Results showed that the adaptation pathways optimized by MCGS could save the whole life net present cost of an LID plan by 1%-60% compared with those optimized by GA, and the computational efficiency of MCGS was over 13 times faster than GA.}, }
@article {pmid31326071, year = {2019}, author = {Beach, RH and Sulser, TB and Crimmins, A and Cenacchi, N and Cole, J and Fukagawa, NK and Mason-D'Croz, D and Myers, S and Sarofim, MC and Smith, M and Ziska, LH}, title = {Combining the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on protein, iron, and zinc availability and projected climate change on global diets: a modelling study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {e307-e317}, pmid = {31326071}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {EPA999999/ImEPA/Intramural EPA/United States ; }, mesh = {Atmosphere/analysis ; Biological Availability ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*physiology ; *Diet ; Dietary Proteins/*metabolism ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Iron, Dietary/*metabolism ; Models, Theoretical ; Nutrients/*metabolism ; Zinc/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) affect global nutrition via effects on agricultural productivity and nutrient content of food crops. We combined these effects with economic projections to estimate net changes in nutrient availability between 2010 and 2050.<br><br>METHODS: In this modelling study, we used the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade to project per capita availability of protein, iron, and zinc in 2050. We used estimated changes in productivity of individual agricultural commodities to model effects on production, trade, prices, and consumption under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Two independent sources of data, which used different methodologies to determine the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on different key crops, were combined with the modelled food supply results to estimate future nutrient availability.<br><br>FINDINGS: Although technological change, market responses, and the effects of CO2 fertilisation on yield are projected to increase global availability of dietary protein, iron, and zinc, these increases are moderated by negative effects of climate change affecting productivity and carbon penalties on nutrient content. The carbon nutrient penalty results in decreases in the global availability of dietary protein of 4&#xb7;1%, iron of 2&#xb7;8%, and zinc of 2&#xb7;5% as calculated using one dataset, and decreases in global availability of dietary protein of 2&#xb7;9%, iron of 3&#xb7;9%, and zinc of 3&#xb7;4% using the other dataset. The combined effects of projected increases in atmospheric CO2 (ie, carbon nutrient penalty, CO2 fertilisation, and climate effects on productivity) will decrease growth in the global availability of nutrients by 19&#xb7;5% for protein, 14&#xb7;4% for iron, and 14&#xb7;6% for zinc relative to expected technology and market gains by 2050. The many countries that currently have high levels of nutrient deficiency would continue to be disproportionately affected.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: This approach is an improvement in estimating future global food security by simultaneously projecting climate change effects on crop productivity and changes in nutrient content under increased concentrations of CO2, which accounts for a much larger effect on nutrient availability than CO2 fertilisation. Regardless of the scenario used to project future consumption patterns, the net effect of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 will slow progress in decreasing global nutrient deficiencies.<br><br>FUNDING: US Environmental Protection Agency, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CIGAR) Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM), and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change and Food Security (CCAFS).}, }
@article {pmid31326066, year = {2019}, author = {Ebi, KL and Loladze, I}, title = {Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate change will affect our food's quality and quantity.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {e283-e284}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30108-1}, pmid = {31326066}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; Iron ; Zinc ; }, }
@article {pmid31326065, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, T and Ma, W}, title = {Climate change and health: more research on adaptation is needed.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {e281-e282}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30112-3}, pmid = {31326065}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Cardiovascular Diseases ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Public Health ; Spain ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid31324617, year = {2019}, author = {Jones, B}, title = {Doctors sign open letter demanding government action on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {l4696}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l4696}, pmid = {31324617}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31322439, year = {2019}, author = {Onozuka, D and Gasparrini, A and Sera, F and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y}, title = {Modeling Future Projections of Temperature-Related Excess Morbidity due to Infectious Gastroenteritis under Climate Change Conditions in Japan.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {7}, pages = {77006}, pmid = {31322439}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {MR/M022625/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; MR/R013349/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Gastroenteritis/*epidemiology/etiology ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Japan/epidemiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Morbidity/*trends ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has marked implications for the burden of infectious diseases. However, no studies have estimated future projections of climate change–related excess morbidity due to diarrhea according to climate change scenarios.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine temperature-infectious gastroenteritis associations throughout Japan and project temperature-related morbidity concomitant with climate change for the 2090s.<br><br>METHODS: Weekly time series of average temperature and morbidity for infectious gastroenteritis cases in the period 2005-2015 were collated from the 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage time-series analysis was adopted to estimate temperature-infectious gastroenteritis relationships. Time series of present and future average daily temperature fluctuations were projected for the four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) according to five general circulation models. Excess morbidity for high and low temperatures and the net change in the period 1990&#x2013;2099 were projected for each climate change scenario by assuming the absence of adaptation and population alterations.<br><br>RESULTS: In the period 2005&#x2013;2015, 11,529,833 infectious gastroenteritis cases were reported. There were net reductions in temperature-induced excess morbidity under higher emission scenarios. The net change in the projection period 2090-2099 in comparison with 2010&#x2013;2019 was [Formula: see text] (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: [Formula: see text], 0.5) for RCP2.6, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP4.5, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP6.0, and [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP8.5, and the higher the emissions scenario, the larger the estimates reductions. Spatial heterogeneity in the temperature-morbidity relationship was observed among prefectures (Cochran Q test, [Formula: see text]; [Formula: see text]).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Japan may experience a net reduction in temperature-related excess morbidity due to infectious gastroenteritis in higher emission scenarios. These results might be because the majority of temperature-related diarrhea cases in Japan are attributable to viral infections during the winter season. Further projections of specific pathogen-induced infectious gastroenteritis due to climate change are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4731.}, }
@article {pmid31319319, year = {2019}, author = {Morton, S and Pencheon, D and Bickler, G}, title = {The sustainable development goals provide an important framework for addressing dangerous climate change and achieving wider public health benefits.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {65-68}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2019.05.018}, pmid = {31319319}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Sustainable Development ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To suggest how public health systems and the health sector can utilise the United Nation (UN) sustainable development goals (SDGs) to address climate change and other threats to future health and deliver immediate public health benefits.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We examined UN and World Health Organisation guidance on SDGs and other published texts on systems thinking, integration, universality and co-benefits.<br><br>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The UN SDGs are a set of globally agreed objectives to end poverty, protect all that makes the planet habitable and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity. The SDGs integrate the three dimensions of sustainable development (economic, environmental and social), they apply to high-income countries as well as developing countries and there are mechanisms to hold countries to account. There are three crucial issues for public health. First, a systems approach to future proof health and social justice. Second, an evidence-based approach to aid communication, framing and engagement. And, third, the importance of interventions that deliver health co-benefits (i.e. both immediate and long-term benefits to health, equity and prosperity). The SDGs present public health professionals with an important opportunity to create the right conditions for a better future through the organised efforts of society.}, }
@article {pmid31319170, year = {2019}, author = {Diele-Viegas, LM and Werneck, FP and Rocha, CFD}, title = {Climate change effects on population dynamics of three species of Amazonian lizards.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {236}, number = {}, pages = {110530}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.110530}, pmid = {31319170}, issn = {1531-4332}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Confidence Intervals ; Lizards/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; South America ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The scarcity of data on natural history and ecology of lizards still limits the understanding of population dynamics for many species. We attempt to evaluate possible effects of climate change on the population dynamics of three lizard species (Ameiva ameiva, Gonatodes humeralis and Norops fuscoauratus) in two Amazonian localities (Caxiuanã National Forest and Ducke Reserve). We calculated a tolerance index combining environmental thermal adequacy with the b-d model, which consider survival and reproductive rates to calculate population dynamics. Thus, we simulated population growth rates based on current and future environmental operative temperatures, considering an optimistic and a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gases emissions (GGE), and evaluate if the sensitivity of life history traits to population growth rate are likely to be trigged by climate change. Our results demonstrated that both populations of G. humeralis and the Ducke population of N. fuscoauratus may become locally extinct under both scenarios of GGE, while both populations of A. ameiva are likely to decrease, but without reaching a scenario of local extirpation. This study represents the first effort to evaluate the sensitivity of lizard populations and elasticity to climate change and demonstrate the geographic variability of these traits in three widespread and habitat-generalist species. We highlight the need of new studies focusing on species with different biological trait patterns, such as endemic distributions and habitat-specialists, to provide the theoretical and empirical basis for biologically informed conservation strategies and actions, in order to minimize the potential extinction of populations due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31315172, year = {2019}, author = {Schnitter, R and Berry, P}, title = {The Climate Change, Food Security and Human Health Nexus in Canada: A Framework to Protect Population Health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {14}, pages = {}, pmid = {31315172}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; *Population Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on the Canadian food system pose risks to human health. Little attention has been paid to the climate change, food security, and human health nexus, resulting in a number of knowledge gaps regarding food system components that are most vulnerable to climate change. The lack of understanding of key dynamics and possible future impacts challenges the ability of public health officials and partners in other sectors to prepare Canadians for future health risks. A series of literature reviews were conducted to establish the relationship between climate change, food security, and human health, and to identify vulnerabilities within the Canadian food system. Evidence suggests that key activities within the food system are vulnerable to climate change. The pathways in which climate change impacts travel through the food system and affect the critical dimensions of food security to influence human health outcomes are complex. Climate-related disruptions in the food system can indirectly impact human health by diminishing food security, which is a key determinant of health. Human health may also be directly affected by the physical effects of climate change on the food system, primarily related to the impacts on nutrition and foodborne illnesses. In this study, we propose a novel analytical framework to study and respond to the climate change, food security, and human health nexus. This work is intended to help public health officials, researchers, and relevant stakeholders investigate and understand current and future risks, and inform adaptation efforts to protect the health of Canadians.}, }
@article {pmid31314774, year = {2019}, author = {Crombé, P}, title = {Mesolithic projectile variability along the southern North Sea basin (NW Europe): Hunter-gatherer responses to repeated climate change at the beginning of the Holocene.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0219094}, pmid = {31314774}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Anthropology, Physical ; Archaeology ; Bayes Theorem ; Climate Change/*history ; Europe ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; North Sea ; Radiometric Dating ; Weapons/*history ; }, abstract = {This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories.}, }
@article {pmid31310666, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, C and Harvey, JA and Biere, A and Gols, R}, title = {Rain downpours affect survival and development of insect herbivores: the specter of climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {100}, number = {11}, pages = {e02819}, pmid = {31310666}, issn = {1939-9170}, mesh = {Animals ; *Butterflies ; Climate Change ; *Herbivory ; Insecta ; Larva ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of rainfall events are among the abiotic effects predicted under anthropogenic global warming. Heavy downpours may profoundly affect the development and survival of small organisms such as insects. Here, we examined direct (physically on the insects) and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of simulated downpours on the performance of caterpillars of two lepidopteran herbivores (Plutella xylostella and Pieris brassicae) feeding on black mustard (Brassica nigra) plants. Host plants were exposed to different rainfall regimes both before and while caterpillars were feeding on the plants in an attempt to separate direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of rainfall on insect survival and development. In two independent experiments, downpours were simulated as a single long (20 min) or as three short (5 min) daily events. Downpours had a strong negative direct effect on the survival of P. xylostella, but not on that of P. brassicae. Direct effects of downpours consistently increased development time of both herbivore species, whereas effects on body mass depended on herbivore species and downpour frequency. Caterpillar disturbance by rain and recorded microclimatic cooling by 5°C may explain extended immature development. Indirect, plant-mediated effects of downpours on the herbivores were generally small, despite the fact that sugar concentrations were reduced and herbivore induction of secondary metabolites (glucosinolates) was enhanced in plants exposed to rain. Changes in the frequency of precipitation events due to climate change may impact the survival and development of insect herbivores differentially. Broader effects of downpours on insects and other arthropods up the food chain could seriously impair and disrupt trophic interactions, ultimately destabilizing communities.}, }
@article {pmid31310652, year = {2019}, author = {Correa-Lima, APA and Varassin, IG and Barve, N and Zwiener, VP}, title = {Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {124}, number = {3}, pages = {389-398}, pmid = {31310652}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Flowers ; Plants ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS: Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant-pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.<br><br>METHODS: We implemented ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of 62 hummingbird-pollinated plant species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Distribution models indicate future changes in the climatic suitability of their current habitats, suggesting a tendency towards discontinuity, reduction and spatial displacement. Flowering models indicate that climate can influence species phenology in different ways: some species may experience increased flowering suitability whereas others may suffer decreased suitability.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that hummingbird-pollinated species are prone to changes in their geographical distribution and flowering under different climate scenarios. Such variation may impact the community structure of ecological networks and reproductive success of tropical plants in the near future.}, }
@article {pmid31310430, year = {2019}, author = {Jakoby, O and Lischke, H and Wermelinger, B}, title = {Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {12}, pages = {4048-4063}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14766}, pmid = {31310430}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Bundesamt f&#xfc;r Umwelt/ ; //Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Coleoptera ; Ecosystem ; *Picea ; Plant Bark ; Switzerland ; }, abstract = {The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most important insect pest in Central European forests. Under climate change, its phenology is presumed to be changing and mass infestations becoming more likely. While several studies have investigated climate effects across a latitudinal gradient, it remains an open question how phenology will change depending on elevation and topology. Knowing how an altered climate is likely to affect bark beetle populations, particularly across diverse topographies and elevations, is essential for adaptive management. We developed a time-varying distributed delay model to predict the phenology of I. typographus. This approach has the particular advantage of capturing the variability within populations and thus representing its stage structure at any time. The model is applied for three regional climate change scenarios, A1B, A2 and RCP3PD, to the diverse topography of Switzerland, covering a large range of elevations, aspects and slopes. We found a strong negative relationship between voltinism and elevation. Under climate change, the model predicts an increasing number of generations over the whole elevational gradient, which will be more pronounced at low elevations. In contrast, the pre-shift in spring swarming is expected to be greater at higher elevations. In comparison, the general trend of faster beetle development on steep southern slopes is only of minor importance. Overall, the maximum elevation allowing a complete yearly generation will move upwards. Generally, the predicted increase in number of generations, earlier spring swarming, more aggregated swarming, together with a projected increase in drought and storm events, will result in a higher risk of mass infestations. This will increase the pressure on spruce stands particularly in the lowlands and require intensified management efforts. It calls for adapted long-term silvicultural strategies to mitigate the loss of ecosystem services such as timber production protection against rockfall and avalanches and carbon storage.}, }
@article {pmid31308901, year = {2019}, author = {Chakwizira, J}, title = {Rural transport and climate change in South Africa: Converting constraints into rural transport adaptation opportunities.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {718}, pmid = {31308901}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This study explored the implications of climate change for rural transport in South Africa. The article was seeking to convert existing rural transport adaptation constraints into rural transport adaptation opportunities. Challenges and constraints to rural transport adaptation transitions were also explored. The research methodology adopted was a review of the literature and references to case study examples. Then a four-stage multi-analytical approach was used to unravel and decode the major rural transport and climate change issues in South Africa. Consequent to the analysis, a framework of analysis for strongly integrating climate change to rural transport interventions was advanced. The findings indicated the existing rural transport adaptation measures and options in South Africa. The article concludes by highlighting the complexity and intricate dynamic nature of interactions, networks and systems that impact rural South Africa. Recommendations revolve around properly situating rural transport and climate change within the wider rural development challenges and matters facing contemporary South Africa.}, }
@article {pmid31308900, year = {2019}, author = {Nhamo, G and Agyepong, AO}, title = {Climate change adaptation and local government: Institutional complexities surrounding Cape Town's Day Zero.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {717}, pmid = {31308900}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The challenges associated with climate change in local governments are growing daily. One such challenge is water security, an aspect that draws us to the subject matter of climate change adaptation. This article discusses findings about institutional complexities surrounding Day Zero, a concept associated with water taps running dry because of drought conditions as aggravated by climate change in the city of Cape Town, South Africa. The thrust on institutional complexities is deliberate, as this affects how crisis situations like Day Zero were handled. The data were generated mainly from the actor-actant-network theory, events study as well as document and discourse analysis methods. The actor-actant-network theory is used widely to trace how actors (humans) and actants (non-human phenomena) interact in space and time through their networks, following narratives like Day Zero, and act on climate-related matters. The analysis applied elements of grounded theory, resulting in categories and themes emerging for discussion. The article found that narratives surrounding Day Zero were embedded in both political and administrative dilemmas and red tape. Despite these challenges, the article concludes that Day Zero remains one of the landmark learning points for climate change adaptation and water security in Cape Town, South Africa, and in other cities across the world. The article recommends that Day Zero experiences continue to be embraced positively and documented further to enhance local government climate adaptation for water security currently and into the future as well.}, }
@article {pmid31308898, year = {2019}, author = {Shokane, AL}, title = {Social work assessment of climate change: Case of disasters in greater Tzaneen municipality.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {710}, pmid = {31308898}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate-change-induced disasters such as floods, heavy storms, tornadoes and extreme lightning are becoming more frequent in Africa generally and in South Africa specifically. Several factors contribute to Africa's high vulnerability to disasters, including the high rate of population growth, food insecurity, high levels of poverty, inappropriate use of natural resources and failures of policy and institutional frameworks. The study adopted an ecological systems theory as a theoretical framework to explain how social work in rural communities deals with climate-change-induced disasters. The aim was to explore and describe the role of social work in the assessment of climate change disaster predicaments. A qualitative approach, utilising an exploratory-descriptive design, was adopted for this study. A purposive sampling technique was used to select five social workers and two social auxiliary workers to participate in the study. Semi-structured interviews were applied in the research as a tool for data collection. Data were analysed qualitatively using thematic content analysis. The research concluded that social workers should intervene in climate-change-induced disasters by conducting assessments and providing disaster intervention strategies.}, }
@article {pmid31308890, year = {2019}, author = {Mhlanga-Ndlovu, BFN and Nhamo, G}, title = {Small-Scale Farmers Associations' adaptive capacity to climate change in Swaziland sugarcane industry.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {697}, pmid = {31308890}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This study investigated the existing adaptive capacity for climate change impacts by Small-Scale Famers Associations (SSFAs) in Swaziland's sugar industry. The analysis of adaptive capacity considered how the livelihood assets (natural, physical, financial, human and social) as discussed in the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) help promote SSFAs' adaptive capacity to climate change. The study took place in the Lowveld. Data were generated through a questionnaire from 45 SSFAs supervisors representing more than 2700 farmers. In addition, face-to-face interviews were undertaken with key informants, namely, Swaziland Water and Agricultural Development Enterprise, Swaziland Sugar Association, Ministry of Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Economic Planning and Development, and the United Nations Development Programme. The results indicate that the farmers have less adaptive capacity, and this affects the implementation of adaptation measures. The priority action towards increased adaptation includes interventions on credit, utility costs and taxes, land resources ownership and management, as well as information dissemination, especially early warning.}, }
@article {pmid31308881, year = {2019}, author = {Ncube, A and Tawodzera, M}, title = {Communities' perceptions of health hazards induced by climate change in Mount Darwin district, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {748}, pmid = {31308881}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change contributes toward many global challenges, such as increases in diseases in some communities, thereby accelerating health hazards to disasters. Establishing the extent to which local communities understand and perceive climate change and related health hazards is important for effective disaster risk management strategies. The objective of this study was to investigate communities' perceptions of health hazards induced by climate change in Mount Darwin district of Zimbabwe. This was in the light that besides the visible indications that climate is changing, the local people still perceive the climate change phenomenon as mystical or even a non-event. The study was situated within the social capital theory contextualised within the climate change, disaster management and the knowledge and perception realm constructed through social relationships, networks and interactions. A mixed-method research approach was used to assess the extent of knowledge and perceptions related to climate change and climate change-related health hazards. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to survey 204 participants from 10 wards in Mount Darwin, Zimbabwe. Respondents were purposively selected as they were mostly characterised by high vulnerability levels. While 38% of the respondents were not aware of climate change, 7% correctly identified climate change as caused by both natural and man-made forces. Most (89%) of the respondents stated that hazards occur mainly because of meteorological and hydrological causes. The study therefore recommended further education and awareness programmes to deepen community understanding of climate change. Despite the communities having some knowledge gaps and lacking an in-depth understanding of how climate change alters disease, there was some vital information within the Mount Darwin community that could have been used in local disaster risk management initiatives.}, }
@article {pmid31308877, year = {2019}, author = {Volenzo, TE and Odiyo, JO and Obiri, J}, title = {Greenhouse gas emissions as sustainability indicators in agricultural sectors' adaptation to climate change: Policy implications.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {576}, pmid = {31308877}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Effective adaptation action to climate change requires a balance between reducing vulnerabilities and managing risks. However, in most adaptation actions, risks such as greenhouse gas emissions, and those that impose negative externalities on global communities and ecosystems, are often overlooked. This article contextualises adaptation of maize stover (MS) as a dairy cattle feed among resource-poor farmers in western Kenya. In so doing, it attempts to establish the nexus between resource constraint and maladaptation to climate change. Simulation of methane emissions was carried out from secondary data and a survey of dairy cattle feeding strategies by resource-poor farmers. The level of greenhouse gas emissions in dairy feeding strategies is used as a measure and indicator of sustainability. Using disaster risk reduction principles, policymakers and community of practice in climate change action are encouraged to design and implement policies and strategies that take cognisance of poverty-maladaptation-environmental degradation nexus.}, }
@article {pmid31306868, year = {2019}, author = {Matias, RS and Gregory, S and Ceia, FR and Baeta, A and Seco, J and Rocha, MS and Fernandes, EM and Reis, RL and Silva, TH and Pereira, E and Piatkowski, U and Ramos, JA and Xavier, JC}, title = {Show your beaks and we tell you what you eat: Different ecology in sympatric Antarctic benthic octopods under a climate change context.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {150}, number = {}, pages = {104757}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.104757}, pmid = {31306868}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Beak/chemistry ; Carbon Isotopes ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; Ecosystem ; *Food Chain ; *Mercury/analysis ; Nitrogen Isotopes ; Sympatry ; }, abstract = {Sympatry can lead to higher competition under climate change and other environmental pressures, including in South Georgia, Antarctica, where the two most common octopod species, Adelieledone polymorpha and Pareledone turqueti, occur side by side. Since cephalopods are typically elusive animals, the ecology of both species is poorly known. As beaks of cephalopods are recurrently found in top predator's stomachs, we studied the feeding ecology of both octopods through the evaluation of niche overlapping and specific beak adaptations that both species present. A multidisciplinary approach combining carbon (δ[13]C) and nitrogen (δ[15]N) stable isotope signatures, mercury (Hg) analysis and biomaterials' engineering techniques was applied to investigate the beaks. An isotopic niche overlap of 95.6% was recorded for the juvenile stages of both octopod species, dropping to 19.2% for the adult stages. Both A. polymorpha and P. turqueti inhabit benthic ecosystems around South Georgia throughout their lifecycles (δ[13]C: -19.21 ± 1.87‰, mean ± SD for both species) but explore trophic niches partially different during adult life stages (δ[15]N: 7.01 ± 0.40‰, in A. polymorpha, and 7.84 ± 0.65‰, in P. turqueti). The beaks of A. polymorpha are less dense and significantly less stiff than in P. turqueti. Beaks showed lower mercury concentration relative to muscle (A. polymorpha - beaks: 0.052 ± 0.009 μg g[-1], muscle: 0.322 ± 0.088 μg g[-1]; P. turqueti - beaks: 0.038 ± 0.009 μg g[-1]; muscle: 0.434 ± 0.128 μg g[-1]). Overall, both octopods exhibit similar habitats but different trophic niches, related to morphology/function of beaks. The high Hg concentrations in both octopods can have negative consequences on their top predators and may increase under the present climate change context.}, }
@article {pmid31306533, year = {2019}, author = {Destro, GFG and de Fernandes, V and de Andrade, AFA and De Marco, P and Terribile, LC}, title = {Back home? Uncertainties for returning seized animals to the source-areas under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {10}, pages = {3242-3253}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14760}, pmid = {31306533}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Regardless of the economic, social and environmental impacts caused by wild animal trafficking worldwide, the suitable destination of seized specimens is one of the main challenges faced by environmental managers and authorities. In Brazil, returning seized animals to the wild has been the most frequent path in population restoration programs, and has been carried out, as a priority, in areas where the animals were captured. However, in addition to the difficulty in identifying the locations of illegal captures, little scientific knowledge is available on the future viability of the source-areas to global climate change. Thus, the current work aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the main source-municipalities for animal trafficking in Brazil, referred to herein as source-areas. For this, using ecological niche modeling, the environmental suitability of the source-areas for illegal animal captures was evaluated in two scenarios at two different time horizons: optimistic (RCP 26) and pessimistic (RCP 85) emission scenarios in both 2050 and 2070 projections. Moreover, the source-areas were compared with the Brazilian Federal protected areas, used here as the control group. According to the results, Brazilian source-municipalities are not always the best option for maintaining the most seized species in the future simulations, and, therefore, seem not be the best option for projects that aim for the return of these animals to the wild. In this sense, despite the genetic and ecological issues inherent in translocation projects, our results suggest that population restoration programs for seized species need to be rethought, and furthermore other suitable areas could be considered for truly ensuring the survival and maintenance of overexploited populations in the long term.}, }
@article {pmid31301499, year = {2019}, author = {Guo, L and Shan, N and Zhang, Y and Sun, F and Liu, W and Shi, Z and Zhang, Q}, title = {Separating the effects of climate change and human activity on water use efficiency over the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {690}, number = {}, pages = {584-595}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.067}, pmid = {31301499}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Water Resources/supply &amp; distribution ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Water use efficiency (WUE) is a central parameter for linking carbon and water exchange processes in terrestrial ecosystems. The Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR) in China has undergone tremendous vegetation restoration and climate change. Understanding the WUE responses to climate change and human activity and their relative contributions to the trends and inter-annual variations (IAVs) in WUE is necessary to improve water use efficiency and strengthen water resource management. The evapotranspiration (ET) dataset based on the model tree ensemble (MTE) algorithm which was a machine learning approach using flux-tower ET measurements and the GLASS GPP dataset, as well as the variance decomposition method, were used to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in water use efficiency and inherent water use efficiency (IWUE) and the impacts of climate change and human activities. The results showed that the annual WUE and IWUE exhibited significantly increase in most regions of the BTSSR. The trend of human activity played the most important role in the increases of WUE and IWUE, with relative contributions of 88.2% and 85.9%, respectively, followed by the IAV of human activity for WUE (6.1%) and the trend of climate change (8.7%) for IWUE. The contribution of IAV to climate change was relatively small. Moreover, WUE and IWUE were all positively correlated with precipitation and temperature in most regions. Our results indicated that ecological restoration projects had significantly improved water use efficiency in BTSSR and may decrease the water burden in the BTSSR.}, }
@article {pmid31301449, year = {2019}, author = {Verheyen, J and Tüzün, N and Stoks, R}, title = {Using natural laboratories to study evolution to global warming: contrasting altitudinal, latitudinal, and urbanization gradients.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {10-19}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.06.001}, pmid = {31301449}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Altitude ; Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Geography ; *Global Warming ; Insecta/physiology ; Temperature ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Demonstrating the likelihood of evolution in response to global warming is important, yet challenging. We discuss how three spatial thermal gradients (latitudinal, altitudinal, and urbanization) can be used as natural laboratories to inform about the gradual thermal evolution of populations by applying a space-for-time substitution (SFTS) approach. We compare thermal variables and confounding non-thermal abiotic variables, methodological approaches and evolutionary aspects associated with each type of gradient. On the basis of an overview of recent insect studies, we show that a key assumption of SFTS, local thermal adaptation along these gradients, is often but not always met, requiring explicit validation. To increase realism when applying SFTS, we highlight the importance of integrating daily temperature fluctuations, multiple stressors and multiple interacting species. Finally, comparative studies, especially across gradient types, are important to provide more robust inferences of evolution under gradual global warming. Integrating these research directions will further strengthen the still underused, yet powerful SFTS approach to infer gradual evolution under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid31297944, year = {2019}, author = {Fill, JM and Davis, CN and Crandall, RM}, title = {Climate change lengthens southeastern USA lightning-ignited fire seasons.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {10}, pages = {3562-3569}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14727}, pmid = {31297944}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Lightning ; Seasons ; Southeastern United States ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Trends in average annual or seasonal precipitation are insufficient for detecting changes in the climatic fire season, especially in regions where the fire season is defined by wet-dry seasonal cycles and lightning activity. Using an extensive dataset (1897-2017) in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, we examined changes in annual dry season length, total precipitation, and (since 1945) the seasonal distribution of thunder-days as a correlate of lightning activity. We found that across the entire region, the dry season has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130% over 120 years), both starting earlier and ending later with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning-ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be having a hitherto undetected influence on fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters.}, }
@article {pmid31296193, year = {2019}, author = {Lee, JS and Farlow, A}, title = {The threat of climate change to non-dengue-endemic countries: increasing risk of dengue transmission potential using climate and non-climate datasets.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {934}, pmid = {31296193}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Asia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Datasets as Topic ; Dengue/*epidemiology ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Endemic Diseases ; Humans ; Japan/epidemiology ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Tokyo/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is a major public health problem in the tropics and sub-tropics, but the disease is less known to non-dengue-endemic countries including in Northeast Asia. However, an unexpected dengue outbreak occurred in 2014 in Japan. Given that autochthonous (domestic) dengue cases had not been reported for the past 70 years in Japan, this outbreak was highly unusual and suggests that several environmental factors might have changed in a way that favors vector mosquitoes in the Northeast Asian region.<br><br>METHODS: A Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index, as validated in previous work, was constructed using climate and non-climate factors. This CRF index was compared to the number of reported dengue cases in Tokyo, Japan where the outbreak was observed in 2014. In order to identify high-risk areas, the CRF index was further estimated at the 5&#x2009;km by 5&#x2009;km resolution and mapped for Japan and South Korea.<br><br>RESULTS: The high-risk areas determined by the CRF index corresponded well to the provinces where a high number of autochthonous cases were reported during the outbreak in Japan. At the provincial-level, high-risk areas for dengue fever were the Eastern part of Tokyo and Kanakawa, the South-Eastern part of Saitama, and the North-Western part of Chiba. While a relatively small number of high-risk areas were identified in South Korea compared with Japan, the high-risk areas in South Korea include popular tourist destinations where international visitors have been increasing.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The recent dengue outbreak in Japan may signal that the two adjacent non-dengue-endemic countries are also exposed to the risk of temporal and sporadic behavior of dengue fever. It is critical to understand potential high-risk areas for future outbreaks and to set up appropriate prevention activities at the governmental-level.}, }
@article {pmid31293629, year = {2019}, author = {Jaffé, R and Veiga, JC and Pope, NS and Lanes, &#xc9;CM and Carvalho, CS and Alves, R and Andrade, SCS and Arias, MC and Bonatti, V and Carvalho, AT and de Castro, MS and Contrera, FAL and Francoy, TM and Freitas, BM and Giannini, TC and Hrncir, M and Martins, CF and Oliveira, G and Saraiva, AM and Souza, BA and Imperatriz-Fonseca, VL}, title = {Landscape genomics to the rescue of a tropical bee threatened by habitat loss and climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {1164-1177}, pmid = {31293629}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Habitat degradation and climate change are currently threatening wild pollinators, compromising their ability to provide pollination services to wild and cultivated plants. Landscape genomics offers powerful tools to assess the influence of landscape modifications on genetic diversity and functional connectivity, and to identify adaptations to local environmental conditions that could facilitate future bee survival. Here, we assessed range-wide patterns of genetic structure, genetic diversity, gene flow, and local adaptation in the stingless bee Melipona subnitida, a tropical pollinator of key biological and economic importance inhabiting one of the driest and hottest regions of South America. Our results reveal four genetic clusters across the species' full distribution range. All populations were found to be under a mutation-drift equilibrium, and genetic diversity was not influenced by the amount of reminiscent natural habitats. However, genetic relatedness was spatially autocorrelated and isolation by landscape resistance explained range-wide relatedness patterns better than isolation by geographic distance, contradicting earlier findings for stingless bees. Specifically, gene flow was enhanced by increased thermal stability, higher forest cover, lower elevations, and less corrugated terrains. Finally, we detected genomic signatures of adaptation to temperature, precipitation, and forest cover, spatially distributed in latitudinal and altitudinal patterns. Taken together, our findings shed important light on the life history of M. subnitida and highlight the role of regions with large thermal fluctuations, deforested areas, and mountain ranges as dispersal barriers. Conservation actions such as restricting long-distance colony transportation, preserving local adaptations, and improving the connectivity between highlands and lowlands are likely to assure future pollination services.}, }
@article {pmid31293131, year = {2019}, author = {Lauriola, P and Serafini, A and Santamaria, MG and Pegoraro, S and Romizi, F and Di Ciaula, A and Terzano, B and De Tommasi, F and Cordiano, V and Guicciardi, S and Bernardi, M and Leonardi, G and Romizi, R and Vinci, E and Bianchi, F}, title = {[Sentinel physicians for the environment and their role in connecting up global concerns due to climate change with local actions: thoughts and proposals].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {43}, number = {2-3}, pages = {129-130}, doi = {10.19191/EP19.2-3.P129.051}, pmid = {31293131}, issn = {1120-9763}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*organization &amp; administration ; Environmental Pollution/adverse effects ; *Global Health ; Health Information Systems/organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Italy ; *Physician's Role ; *Physicians, Primary Care ; }, }
@article {pmid31292461, year = {2019}, author = {Valdivia-Garcia, M and Weir, P and Graham, DW and Werner, D}, title = {Predicted Impact of Climate Change on Trihalomethanes Formation in Drinking Water Treatment.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {9967}, pmid = {31292461}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Quantitative predictions of impacts on public water supplies are essential for planning climate change adaptations. Monitoring data from five full-scale Scottish drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) showed that significant correlations exist between conditionally carcinogenic trihalomethanes (THMs) levels, water temperature (r = 0.812, p = 0.0013) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) (r = 0.892, p < 0.0001), respectively. The strong seasonality of these parameters demonstrated how climate can influence THMs formation. We quantified with laboratory experiments the sensitivity of THMs formation to changes in water temperature and DOC concentration. The laboratory data accurately reproduced real-world THM formation in the DWTPs. We then combined these validated relationships with information from the literature about future trends in mean summer temperatures and surface water DOC in the British Isles, to estimate future global warming impacts on THMs formation in DWTPs that use chlorine for disinfection. An increase in mean summer temperatures will likely increase THM formation, with a 1.8 °C temperature increase and 39% THMs increase by 2050 representing our mid-range scenario. Such an increase has major implications to potable water around the world, either an increased health risk or increased water treatment costs to maintain an equivalent quality potable supply.}, }
@article {pmid31291388, year = {2019}, author = {Rosario, NA and D'Amato, G and Ansotegui, I}, title = {Global warming and warning.}, journal = {Clinics (Sao Paulo, Brazil)}, volume = {74}, number = {}, pages = {e1219}, pmid = {31291388}, issn = {1980-5322}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid31291367, year = {2019}, author = {Ferreira, MT and Cardoso, P and Borges, PAV and Gabriel, R and de Azevedo, EB and Elias, RB}, title = {Correction: Implications of climate change to the design of protected areas: The case study of small islands (Azores).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0219583}, pmid = {31291367}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0218168.].}, }
@article {pmid31291297, year = {2019}, author = {Stennett-Brown, RK and Stephenson, TS and Taylor, MA}, title = {Caribbean climate change vulnerability: Lessons from an aggregate index approach.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0219250}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0219250}, pmid = {31291297}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Belize/epidemiology ; Caribbean Region/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Cuba/epidemiology ; *Demography ; Dominican Republic/epidemiology ; Guyana/epidemiology ; Humans ; Humidity ; Jamaica/epidemiology ; Rain ; *Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future.}, }
@article {pmid31291254, year = {2019}, author = {Hamilton, LC and Hartter, J and Bell, E}, title = {Generation gaps in US public opinion on renewable energy and climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0217608}, pmid = {31291254}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Politics ; *Public Opinion ; Renewable Energy ; *Sustainable Development ; United States ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The topics of climate change and renewable energy are often linked in policy discussions and scientific analysis, but public opinion on these topics exhibits both overlap and divergence. Although renewable energy has potentially broader acceptance than anthropogenic climate change, it can also face differently-based opposition. Analyses of US and regional surveys, including time series of repeated surveys in New Hampshire (2010-2018) and northeast Oregon (2011-2018), explore the social bases and trends of public views on both issues. Political divisions are prominent, although somewhat greater regarding climate change due to substantive differences and more partisan opposition. Regarding climate change and to a lesser extent renewable energy, political divisions tends to widen with education. There also are robust age and temporal effects: younger adults more often prioritize renewable energy development, and agree with scientists on the reality of anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Across all age groups and both regional series, support for renewable energy and recognition of ACC have been gradually rising. Contrary to widespread speculation, these trends have not visibly responded to events such as the US hurricanes of 2012, 2017 or 2018. Together with age-cohort replacement and the potential for changes in age-group voting participation, however, the gradual trends suggest that public pressure for action on these issues could grow.}, }
@article {pmid31291249, year = {2019}, author = {Bastin, JF and Clark, E and Elliott, T and Hart, S and van den Hoogen, J and Hordijk, I and Ma, H and Majumder, S and Manoli, G and Maschler, J and Mo, L and Routh, D and Yu, K and Zohner, CM and Crowther, TW}, title = {Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0217592}, pmid = {31291249}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Cities ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Decision Making ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Principal Component Analysis ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the 'consensus gap' between scientific knowledge and public opinion. Here, we test the extent to which the iconic cities around the world are likely to shift in response to climate change. By analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we test if their climate in 2050 will resemble more closely to their own current climate conditions or to the current conditions of other cities in different bioclimatic regions. Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. As a general trend, we found that all the cities tend to shift towards the sub-tropics, with cities from the Northern hemisphere shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1), and cities from the tropics shifting to drier conditions. We notably predict that Madrid's climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech's climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31290606, year = {2019}, author = {Rosenbach, M}, title = {Climate change, dermatology, and the time for real action.}, journal = {Pediatric dermatology}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {567-568}, doi = {10.1111/pde.13892}, pmid = {31290606}, issn = {1525-1470}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Dermatology ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid31290364, year = {2019}, author = {Aguirre-Liguori, JA and Ramírez-Barahona, S and Tiffin, P and Eguiarte, LE}, title = {Climate change is predicted to disrupt patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1906}, pages = {20190486}, pmid = {31290364}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; Genome, Plant ; Plant Dispersal ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Zea mays/classification/*genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most important threats to biodiversity and crop sustainability. The impact of climate change is often evaluated on the basis of expected changes in species' geographical distributions. Genomic diversity, local adaptation, and migration are seldom integrated into future species projections. Here, we examine how climate change will impact populations of two wild relatives of maize, the teosintes Zea mays ssp. mexicana and Z. mays ssp. parviglumis. Despite high levels of genetic diversity within populations and widespread future habitat suitability, we predict that climate change will alter patterns of local adaptation and decrease migration probabilities in more than two-thirds of present-day teosinte populations. These alterations are geographically heterogeneous and suggest that the possible impacts of climate change will vary considerably among populations. The population-specific effects of climate change are also evident in maize landraces, suggesting that climate change may result in maize landraces becoming maladapted to the climates in which they are currently cultivated. The predicted alterations to habitat distribution, migration potential, and patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize raise a red flag for the future of populations. The heterogeneous nature of predicted populations' responses underscores that the selective impact of climate change may vary among populations and that this is affected by different processes, including past adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31289942, year = {2019}, author = {Qian, D and Cao, G and Du, Y and Li, Q and Guo, X}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human factors on land cover change in inland mountain protected areas: a case study of the Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve in China.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {8}, pages = {486}, pmid = {31289942}, issn = {1573-2959}, support = {Key Program: 41730752//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; General Program: 3177053//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; Chinese Academy of Sciences//Light of West China Program/ ; 2017-ZJ-Y20//Qinghai innovation platform construction project/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Humans ; Ice Cover ; Population Density ; Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Over the past few decades, natural reserves have been affected by both climate change and human activities, and their land cover has changed dramatically, especially in mountain reserves, which are more sensitive to climate change and human activities. This paper used long-term Landsat and MODIS NDVI remote sensing data to monitor the changes of land cover and vegetation conditions in the Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve (QMNNR) in China from 1975 to 2015, and analysed the impacts of climate change and human activities in combination with meteorological and socioeconomic data. The results show that the land cover structure of the QMNNR has remained stable over the past 40 years, but the total area of natural vegetation has decreased by 49.55 km[2], the artificial surface and cropland has expanded by 13.68 and 32.57 km[2] in some areas, respectively, and the glacier has retreated by 33.34 km[2] as a whole. The warming and humidification trend of the climate is the leading factor for glacial retreat and the improvement of the overall vegetation condition, while population growth and economic benefits lead to the expansion of cropland and artificial surfaces in some areas, thus causing the reduction of 18.80 and 28.30 km[2] in shrubland and grassland. This study proves that the system of protected areas plays a key role in maintaining the stability of the ecosystem structure and that reducing the population density around the protected areas and changing the mode of economic development can effectively reduce the intensity of human interference. Under the background of climate warming, the change of the ecosystem function in mountain protected areas is full of uncertainty, so management and protection strategies need to be studied in depth.}, }
@article {pmid31289937, year = {2020}, author = {Soon, TK and Zheng, H}, title = {Climate Change and Bivalve Mass Mortality in Temperate Regions.}, journal = {Reviews of environmental contamination and toxicology}, volume = {251}, number = {}, pages = {109-129}, doi = {10.1007/398_2019_31}, pmid = {31289937}, issn = {0179-5953}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture ; *Bivalvia ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {One of the fastest-growing global food sectors is the bivalve aquaculture industry. Bivalves particularly oysters, mussels and clams are important sources of animal protein (Tan and Ransangan 2016a, b). Bivalve aquaculture represents 14-16% of the average per capita animal protein for 1.5 billion people and supports over 200,000 livelihoods, mostly in developing countries (FAO 2018). Most of the bivalves produced around the world (89%) are from aquaculture (FAO 2016). To date, mollusc aquaculture have accounted for 21.42% (17.14 million tonnes) of the total aquaculture production, with Asia being the largest contributor (92.27%) (FAO 2018).}, }
@article {pmid31289770, year = {2019}, author = {Kreslake, JM}, title = {Perceived Importance of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation According to Social and Medical Factors Among Residents of Impacted Communities in the United States.}, journal = {Health equity}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {124-133}, pmid = {31289770}, issn = {2473-1242}, abstract = {Purpose: To determine whether perceived importance of local climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts differs according to social or medical factors among residents of impacted communities. Methods: An online survey was conducted among residents of California (Los Angeles/Orange), Florida (Miami-Dade/Broward), and Arizona (Maricopa) counties in July 2018 (n=605). Multivariable ordered logistic regression measured associations between the perceived importance of adaptation/mitigation approaches and income, race/ethnicity, and health conditions, controlling for age, political party, and county. Results: Lower income was associated with higher perceived importance of improved emergency alerts, government-subsidized costs of household air conditioners and energy-efficient appliances, strengthening buildings against extreme weather, regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, urban planning using "cooling" technologies, and expanding community gardens/local agriculture. Black respondents perceived evacuation services for those with financial barriers during extreme weather, government-subsidized costs of energy-efficient appliances, and communication from government agencies about local climate impacts and mitigation as significantly more important compared to non-Black, non-Hispanic respondents. Hispanic respondents perceived significantly greater importance of improved emergency alerts and health care access during extreme weather, evacuation services for residents without transportation, government-subsidized costs of energy-efficient appliances, regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, communication from government agencies about local climate impacts and mitigation efforts, and intergovernmental cooperation on mitigation compared to non-Hispanic respondents. Conclusions: Perceptions of the importance of specific local climate actions differ according to race/ethnicity and income. Community engagement is recommended to help local decisions reflect priorities of the most affected residents.}, }
@article {pmid31289387, year = {2019}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change made Europe's mega-heatwave five times more likely.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {571}, number = {7764}, pages = {155}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-02071-z}, pmid = {31289387}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Europe ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Infrared Rays/*adverse effects ; *Models, Statistical ; *Models, Theoretical ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid31288795, year = {2019}, author = {Hotta, M and Tsuyama, I and Nakao, K and Ozeki, M and Higa, M and Kominami, Y and Hamada, T and Matsui, T and Yasuda, M and Tanaka, N}, title = {Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {23}, pmid = {31288795}, issn = {1472-6785}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Japan ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potential L. muta japonica habitat based on predicted changes to alpine vegetation, to identify population vulnerability under future climatic conditions for conservation planning. We developed species distribution models, which considered the structure of the alpine ecosystem by incorporating spatial hierarchy on specific environmental factors to assess the potential habitats for L. muta japonica under current and future climates. We used 24 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2081-2100 as future climate conditions.<br><br>RESULTS: The predicted potential habitat for L. muta japonica was similar to the actual distribution of the territories in the study area of Japan's northern Alps (36.25-36.5&#xb0;N, 137.5-137.7&#xb0;E). Future potential habitat for L. muta japonica was projected to decrease to 0.4% of the current potential habitat in the median of occurrence probabilities under 24 GCMs, due to a decrease in alpine vegetation communities. Some potential habitats in the central and northwestern part of the study area were predicted to be sustained in the future, depending on the GCMs.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our model results predicted that the potential habitats for L. muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps, which provides core habitat for this subspecies, would be vulnerable by 2081-2100. Small sustainable habitats may serve as refugia, facilitating the survival of L. muta japonica populations under future climatic conditions. Impact assessment studies of the effect of climate change on L. muta japonica habitats at a nationwide scale are urgently required to establish effective conservation planning for this species, which includes identifying candidate areas for assisted migration as an adaptive strategy.}, }
@article {pmid31288110, year = {2019}, author = {Song, Y and Linderholm, HW and Wang, C and Tian, J and Huo, Z and Gao, P and Song, Y and Guo, A}, title = {The influence of excess precipitation on winter wheat under climate change in China from 1961 to 2017.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {690}, number = {}, pages = {189-196}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.367}, pmid = {31288110}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Winter wheat is one of China's most important staple food crops, and its growth and productivity are influenced by climate. Given its importance, we investigated the influence of excess precipitation under recent climate change on winter wheat in east-central China during 1961-2017. Although annual precipitation in the studied region decreased slightly, it increased during the winter wheat flowering and maturity period (May to June). Concurrently, the number of late growing season sunshine hours decreased. Our results showed that about 44% of the years with excess precipitation and less than normal radiation (16 years) were associated with decreasing winter wheat yields. Furthermore, during most years, precipitation of 50% above normal resulted in large decreases in winter wheat production in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, some of the wetter parts of the studied region. These results indicated that the grain yield variability of winter wheat was mainly influenced by excess precipitation in May, where precipitation could explain 70%-78% of yield variability in the wet parts. Moreover, excess precipitation can induce Fusarium head blight as well as wheat sprouting of pre-harvest, both affecting the grain quality of winter wheat. Projected increases in precipitation throughout the 21st century in the studied region, warrants further studies of how to maintain the winter wheat production in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid31287852, year = {2019}, author = {Asmamaw, M and Mereta, ST and Ambelu, A}, title = {Exploring households' resilience to climate change-induced shocks using Climate Resilience Index in Dinki watershed, central highlands of Ethiopia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {e0219393}, pmid = {31287852}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ethiopia/epidemiology ; *Family Characteristics ; Female ; Humans ; Livestock ; Male ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Resilience, Psychological ; Shock/*epidemiology/*etiology ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {This study assessed households' resilience to climate change-induced shocks in Dinki watershed, northcentral highlands of Ethiopia. The data were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted on 288 households, three focus group discussions, and 15 key informant interviews. The Climate Resilience Index (CRI) based on the three resilience capacities (absorptive, adaptive and transformative) frame was used to measure households' resilience to climate change-induced shocks on an agro-ecological unit of analysis. A principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis were used to identify determinant factors and indicators to households' resilience, respectively. Findings indicate that the indexed scores of major components clearly differentiated the study communities in terms of their agro-ecological zones. Specifically, the absorptive capacity (0.495) was the leading contributing factor to resilience followed by adaptive (0.449) and transformative (0.387) capacities. Likewise, the Midland was relatively more resilient with a mean index value of 0.461. Both the PCA and multiple regression analysis indicated that access to and use of livelihood resources, such as farmlands and livestock holdings, diversity of income sources, infrastructure and social capital were determinants of households' resilience. In general, it might be due to their exposure to recurrent shocks coupled with limited adaptive capacities including underdeveloped public services, poor livelihood diversification practices, among others, the study communities showed minimal resilience capacity with a mean score of 0.44. Thus, in addition to short-term buffering strategies, intervention priority focusing on both adaptive and transformative capacities, particularly focusing on most vulnerable localities and constrained livelihood strategies, would contribute to ensuring long-term resilience in the study communities.}, }
@article {pmid31285999, year = {2019}, author = {Milner, J and Harpham, C and Taylor, J and Davies, M and Le Quéré, C and Haines, A and Wilkinson, P}, title = {The Challenge of Urban Heat Exposure under Climate Change: An Analysis of Cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) Database.}, journal = {Climate (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {93}, pmid = {31285999}, issn = {2225-1154}, support = {//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 103908//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The so far largely unabated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to increase global temperatures substantially over this century. We quantify the patterns of increases for 246 globally-representative cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) database. We used an ensemble of 18 global climate models (GCMs) run under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario to estimate the increase in monthly mean temperatures by 2050 and 2100 based on 30-year averages. Model simulations were from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Annual mean temperature increases were 0.93 degrees Celsius by 2050 and 1.10 degrees Celsius by 2100 under RCP2.6, and 1.27 and 4.15 degrees Celsius under RCP8.5, but with substantial city-to-city variation. By 2100, under RCP2.6 no city exceeds an increase in Tmean > 2 degrees Celsius (relative to a 2017 baseline), while all do under RCP8.5, some with increases in Tmean close to, or even greater than, 7 degrees Celsius. The increases were greatest in cities of mid to high latitude, in humid temperate and dry climate regions, and with large seasonal variation in temperature. Cities are likely to experience large increases in hottest month mean temperatures under high GHG emissions trajectories, which will often present substantial challenges to adaptation and health protection.}, }
@article {pmid31285705, year = {2019}, author = {Germain, G and Simon, A and Arsenault, J and Baron, G and Bouchard, C and Chaumont, D and El Allaki, F and Kimpton, A and Lévesque, B and Massé, A and Mercier, M and Ogden, NH and Picard, I and Ravel, A and Rocheleau, JP and Soto, J and , }, title = {Quebec's Multi-Party Observatory on Zoonoses and Adaptation to Climate Change.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {143-148}, pmid = {31285705}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Climate change has been linked with the establishment and geographical expansion of zoonotic diseases, an example of which is the well-documented increase in human cases of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada. As temperatures continue to increase in Quebec, it is anticipated that several zoonotic diseases will be affected. In response to the growing zoonotic issues facing public health authorities, Quebec's Multi-Party Observatory on Zoonoses and Adaptation to Climate Change (Observatoire multipartite québécois sur les zoonoses et l'adaptation aux changements climatiques) (the Observatory) was founded in 2015 as part of the Quebec government's Climate Change Action Plan (Plan d'action 2013-2020 sur les changements climatiques). The Observatory was designed to bring together agencies involved in formulating public policy and experts from the disciplines of human health, animal health and environmental sciences, in a manner similar to the innovative "One World, One Health" approach. The Observatory provides a platform for knowledge sharing and consensus building among representatives of public policy decision makers and scientists. Its main objectives are to anticipate and prioritize potential issues associated with zoonotic diseases in Quebec, in order to support applicable risk management and climate change adaptation. This article describes what the Observatory is, what it does and outlines its plans for the future.}, }
@article {pmid31285704, year = {2019}, author = {Kotchi, SO and Bouchard, C and Ludwig, A and Rees, EE and Brazeau, S}, title = {Using Earth observation images to inform risk assessment and mapping of climate change-related infectious diseases.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {133-142}, pmid = {31285704}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {The number of human cases of several climate-related infectious diseases, including tick- and mosquito-borne diseases, has increased in Canada and other parts of the world since the end of the last century. Predicting and mapping the risks associated with these diseases using environmental and climatic determinants derived from satellite images is an emerging method that can support research, surveillance, prevention and control activities and help to better assess the impacts of climate change in Canada. Earth observation images can be used to systematically monitor changes in the Earth's surface and atmosphere at different scales of time and space. These images can inform estimation and monitoring of environmental and climatic determinants, and thus disease prediction and risk mapping. The current array of Earth observation satellites provides access to a large quantity and variety of data. These data have different characteristics in terms of spatial, temporal and thematic precision and resolution. The objectives of this overview are to describe how Earth observation images may inform risk assessment and mapping of tick-borne and mosquito-borne diseases in Canada, their potential benefits and limitations, the implications and next steps.}, }
@article {pmid31285702, year = {2019}, author = {Rees, EE and Ng, V and Gachon, P and Mawudeku, A and McKenney, D and Pedlar, J and Yemshanov, D and Parmely, J and Knox, J}, title = {Risk assessment strategies for early detection and prediction of infectious disease outbreaks associated with climate change.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {119-126}, pmid = {31285702}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {A new generation of surveillance strategies is being developed to help detect emerging infections and to identify the increased risks of infectious disease outbreaks that are expected to occur with climate change. These surveillance strategies include event-based surveillance (EBS) systems and risk modelling. The EBS systems use open-source internet data, such as media reports, official reports, and social media (such as Twitter) to detect evidence of an emerging threat, and can be used in conjunction with conventional surveillance systems to enhance early warning of public health threats. More recently, EBS systems include artificial intelligence applications such machine learning and natural language processing to increase the speed, capacity and accuracy of filtering, classifying and analysing health-related internet data. Risk modelling uses statistical and mathematical methods to assess the severity of disease emergence and spread given factors about the host (e.g. number of reported cases), pathogen (e.g. pathogenicity) and environment (e.g. climate suitability for reservoir populations). The types of data in these models are expanding to include health-related information from open-source internet data and information on mobility patterns of humans and goods. This information is helping to identify susceptible populations and predict the pathways from which infections might spread into new areas and new countries. As a powerful addition to traditional surveillance strategies that identify what has already happened, it is anticipated that EBS systems and risk modelling will increasingly be used to inform public health actions to prevent, detect and mitigate the climate change increases in infectious diseases.}, }
@article {pmid31285701, year = {2019}, author = {Howard, C and Huston, P}, title = {The health effects of climate change: Know the risks and become part of the solutions.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {114-118}, pmid = {31285701}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Climate change presents a clear and present danger to human health. Health impacts are already being demonstrated in Canada, which is warming at roughly twice the global rate. A recent United Nations Environment Emissions Gap Report noted that if countries maintain current emission efforts, emissions will exceed the targets laid out in the Paris Agreement and global warming will exceed 2ºC worldwide. An important consequence of global warming is an increase in health risks. Much can be done to prevent and mitigate the health impacts of climate change, and understanding and communicating these has been shown to be one of the best ways of motivating action. This editorial provides an overview of the some of the global and national initiatives underway to decrease emissions, and address the health risks of climate change in general, and highlights some of the national initiatives underway to mitigate the increased risk of infectious diseases in Canada in particular.}, }
@article {pmid31285700, year = {2019}, author = {Smith, BA and Fazil, A}, title = {How will climate change impact microbial foodborne disease in Canada?.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {108-113}, pmid = {31285700}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Foodborne disease is a major concern in Canada and represents a significant climate change-related threat to public health. Climate variables, including temperature and precipitation patterns, extreme weather events and ocean warming and acidification, are known to exert significant, complicated and interrelated effects along the entire length of the food chain. Foodborne diseases are caused by a range of bacteria, fungi, parasites and viruses, and the prevalence of these diseases is modified by climate change through alterations in the abundance, growth, range and survival of many pathogens, as well as through alterations in human behaviours and in transmission factors such as wildlife vectors. As climate change continues and/or intensifies, it will increase the risk of an adverse effect on food safety in Canada ranging from increased public health burden to the emergence of risks not currently seen in our food chain. Clinical and public health practitioners need to be aware of the existing and emerging risks to respond accordingly.}, }
@article {pmid31285699, year = {2019}, author = {Ng, V and Rees, EE and Lindsay, LR and Drebot, MA and Brownstone, T and Sadeghieh, T and Khan, SU}, title = {Could exotic mosquito-borne diseases emerge in Canada with climate change?.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {98-107}, pmid = {31285699}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Of the 3,500 species of mosquitoes worldwide, only a small portion carry and transmit the mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) that cause approximately half a million deaths annually worldwide. The most common exotic MBDs, such as malaria and dengue, are not currently established in Canada, in part because of our relatively harsh climate; however, this situation could evolve with climate change. Mosquitoes native to Canada may become infected with new pathogens and move into new regions within Canada. In addition, new mosquito species may move into Canada from other countries, and these exotic species may bring exotic MBDs as well. With high levels of international travel, including to locations with exotic MBDs, there will be more travel-acquired cases of MBDs. With climate change, there is the potential for exotic mosquito populations to become established in Canada. There is already a small area of Canada where exotic Aedes mosquitoes have become established although, to date, there is no evidence that these carry any exotic (or already endemic) MBDs. The increased risks of spreading MBDs, or introducing exotic MBDs, will need a careful clinical and public health response. Clinicians will need to maintain a high level of awareness of current trends, to promote mosquito bite prevention strategies, and to know the laboratory tests needed for early detection and when to report laboratory results to public health. Public health efforts will need to focus on ongoing active surveillance, public and professional awareness and mosquito control. Canadians need to be aware of the risks of acquiring exotic MBDs while travelling abroad as well as the risk that they could serve as a potential route of introduction for exotic MBDs into Canada when they return home.}, }
@article {pmid31285698, year = {2019}, author = {Ludwig, A and Zheng, H and Vrbova, L and Drebot, MA and Iranpour, M and Lindsay, LR}, title = {Increased risk of endemic mosquito-borne diseases in Canada due to climate change.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {91-97}, pmid = {31285698}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {There are currently over 80 species of mosquito endemic in Canada-although only a few of these carry pathogens that can cause disease in humans. West Nile virus, Eastern equine encephalitis virus and the California serogroup viruses (including the Jamestown Canyon and snowshoe hare viruses) are mosquito-borne viruses that have been found to cause human infections in North America, including in Canada. Over the last 20 years, the incidence of most of these endemic mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) has increased approximately 10% in Canada, due in large part to climate change. It is anticipated that both the mosquito lifecycle and virus transmission patterns will be affected by climate change, resulting in an increase in both the range and local abundance of several important mosquito species. Laboratory studies and mathematical modelling suggest that increased ambient temperatures, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events associated with climate change will likely continue to drive mosquito vector and MBD range expansion, increasing the duration of transmission seasons and leading to MBD-related epidemics. Furthermore, Canada's endemic MBDs have complex transmission cycles, involving multiple reservoir hosts (birds and mammals), multiple pathogens and multiple mosquito species-all of which may be sensitive to climate and other environmental changes, and making forecasting of potential emerging trends difficult. These expected climate-induced changes in mosquitoes and MBDs underline the need for continued (and expanded) surveillance and research to ensure timely and accurate evaluation of the risks to the public health of Canadians.}, }
@article {pmid31285696, year = {2019}, author = {Ogden, NH and Gachon, P}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases: What can we expect?.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {76-80}, pmid = {31285696}, issn = {1188-4169}, abstract = {Global climate change, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is being particularly felt in Canada, with warming generally greater than in the rest of the world. Continued warming will be accompanied by changes in precipitation, which will vary across the country and seasons, and by increasing climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change will likely drive the emergence of infectious diseases in Canada by northward spread from the United States and introduction from elsewhere in the world via air and sea transport. Diseases endemic to Canada are also likely to re-emerge. This special issue describes key infectious disease risks associated with climate change. These include emergence of tick-borne diseases in addition to Lyme disease, the possible introduction of exotic mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue, more epidemics of Canada-endemic vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus, and increased incidence of foodborne illnesses. Risk is likely to be compounded by an aging population affected by chronic diseases, which results in greater sensitivity to infectious diseases. Identifying emerging disease risks is essential to assess our vulnerability, and a starting point to identify where public health effort is required to reduce the vulnerability and exposure of the Canadian population.}, }
@article {pmid31285333, year = {2019}, author = {Goldberg, MH and van der Linden, S and Maibach, E and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Discussing global warming leads to greater acceptance of climate science.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {30}, pages = {14804-14805}, pmid = {31285333}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change is an urgent global issue, with demands for personal, collective, and governmental action. Although a large body of research has investigated the influence of communication on public engagement with climate change, few studies have investigated the role of interpersonal discussion. Here we use panel data with 2 time points to investigate the role of climate conversations in shaping beliefs and feelings about global warming. We find evidence of reciprocal causality. That is, discussing global warming with friends and family leads people to learn influential facts, such as the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is happening. In turn, stronger perceptions of scientific agreement increase beliefs that climate change is happening and human-caused, as well as worry about climate change. When assessing the reverse causal direction, we find that knowing the scientific consensus further leads to increases in global warming discussion. These findings suggest that climate conversations with friends and family enter people into a proclimate social feedback loop.}, }
@article {pmid31284196, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, RM}, title = {Mechanisms of soil organic carbon storage response to Spartina alterniflora invasion and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {690}, number = {}, pages = {7-15}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.472}, pmid = {31284196}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change ; Introduced Species ; Poaceae/*physiology ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Coastal wetlands have been identified as vital global carbon (C) sinks; however, soil C sequestration in these ecosystems is susceptible to impacts of non-native species invasion and climate change worldwide. Although their potential impacts on soil organic C (SOC) storage have been reported in previous literature, the well-established mechanisms that control SOC storage response, especially in relation to soil depths, is still limited. To fill this knowledge gap, we developed a structural equation model (SEM) to identify mechanisms that account for SOC changes in topsoil (0-0.3 m) and subsoil (0.3-0.6 m) on coastal wetland of the East China Sea, where SOC in both depths increased with exotic Spartina alterniflora invasion. In the initial model, we hypothesized that there were a set of direct and indirect effects of the invasion, climate, and soil physicochemical properties on SOC storage. By evaluating the interactions of these factors, we found relatively complex patterns that vary with depth. For topsoil, the invasion had not only direct effects on SOC storage, but also indirect effects through mediating effects of soil water content (SWC) that was linked to fine soil fractions. For subsoil, the invasion was indirectly related to SOC storage through mediating effects of SOC in topsoil, SWC, and salinity. SOC in subsoil was also affected by temperature. Our results highlight that the response of SOC storage to the invasion and climate change results from the interacting effects of climate-plant-soil system.}, }
@article {pmid31279898, year = {2019}, author = {Wilke, ABB and Beier, JC and Benelli, G}, title = {Complexity of the relationship between global warming and urbanization - an obscure future for predicting increases in vector-borne infectious diseases.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2019.06.002}, pmid = {31279898}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropod Vectors ; Arthropods/physiology ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Pest Control ; *Urbanization ; Vector Borne Diseases/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Arthropod vectors are responsible for the transmission of many infectious diseases. Currently, more than three billion people living in endemic areas are exposed to vector-borne pathogens. Substantial differences in the biology of arthropod vectors make it extremely challenging to predict the incidence of vector-borne diseases in the future. However, global warming and urbanization both profoundly affect the ecology and distribution of arthropod vectors. Such processes often result in a biotic homogenization of species in a non-random process of biodiversity loss. The data presently available indicate a trend towards progressive increases in the presence and abundance of vectors capable of thriving in urban environments amongst humans, thus, increasing the contact between vectors and human hosts. As a consequence, we expect the incidence of vector-borne diseases to increase. In our opinion, resources should be made available and directed to strategies within the Integrated Vector Management framework, focusing on proven vector control tools. Besides, a substantial reduction of IVM costs would be achieved by observing environmental guidelines and providing basic sanitary infrastructure at early stages of its development. This could help to increase IVM effectiveness in attenuating social determinants of health and social inequities due to exposure to vectors.}, }
@article {pmid31276970, year = {2019}, author = {Libera, A and de Barros, FPJ and Faybishenko, B and Eddy-Dilek, C and Denham, M and Lipnikov, K and Moulton, D and Maco, B and Wainwright, H}, title = {Climate change impact on residual contaminants under sustainable remediation.}, journal = {Journal of contaminant hydrology}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {103518}, doi = {10.1016/j.jconhyd.2019.103518}, pmid = {31276970}, issn = {1873-6009}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Groundwater ; Rivers ; Tritium ; *Water Pollutants, Radioactive ; }, abstract = {This study investigates the potential impact of climate change on residual contaminants in vadose zones and groundwater. We assume that the effect of climate changes can be represented by perturbations in the natural recharge through the aquifer system. We perform numerical modeling of unsaturated/saturated flow and transport and consider different performance metrics: contaminant concentrations at observation wells and contaminant export at the site's boundary. We evaluate the effect of increasing and decreasing recharge as well as the impact of potential failure of surface capping structures employed to immobilize vadose zone contaminants. Our approach is demonstrated in a real case study by simulating transport of non-reactive radioactive tritium at the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site. Results show that recharge changes significantly affect well concentrations: after an initial slight dilution we identify a significant concentration increase at different observation wells some years after the recharge increase and/or the cap failure, as a consequence of contaminants' mobilization. This effect is generally emphasized and occurs earlier as the recharge increases. Under decreased aquifers' recharge the concentration could slightly increase for some years, due to a decrease of dilution, depending on the magnitude of the negative recharge shift. We identify trigger levels of recharge above which the concentration/export breakthrough curves and the time of exceedance of the Maximum Contaminant Level for tritium are remarkably affected. Moreover, we observe that the contaminant export at the control plane, identified as the risk pathway to the downgradient population, may only be minimally affected by shifts in the natural recharge regime, except for some extreme cases. We conclude that more frequent sampling and in-situ monitoring near the source zone should be adopted to better explain concentrations' anomalies under changing climatic conditions. Moreover, the maintenance of the cap is critical not only to sequester residual contaminants in the vadose zone, but also to reduce the uncertainty associated with future precipitation changes. Finally, realistic flow and transport simulations achieved through proper calibration processes, rather than conservative modeling, should be adopted to identify non-trivial trade-offs which enable better allocation of resources towards reducing uncertainty in decision making.}, }
@article {pmid31276080, year = {2019}, author = {Achakulwisut, P and Anenberg, SC and Neumann, JE and Penn, SL and Weiss, N and Crimmins, A and Fann, N and Martinich, J and Roman, H and Mickley, LJ}, title = {Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change.}, journal = {GeoHealth}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {127-144}, pmid = {31276080}, issn = {2471-1403}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080-2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986-2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust-attributable all-cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust-attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate-driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34-47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986-2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national-scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust-related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature-related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.}, }
@article {pmid31275184, year = {2019}, author = {Marshall, NA and Thiault, L and Beeden, A and Beeden, R and Benham, C and Curnock, MI and Diedrich, A and Gurney, GG and Jones, L and Marshall, PA and Nakamura, N and Pert, P}, title = {Our Environmental Value Orientations Influence How We Respond to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {938}, pmid = {31275184}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {People variably respond to global change in their beliefs, behaviors, and grief (associated with losses incurred). People that are less likely to believe in climate change, adopt pro-environmental behaviors, or report ecological grief are assumed to have different psycho-cultural orientations, and do not perceive changes in environmental condition or any impact upon themselves. We test these assumptions within the context of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), a region currently experiencing significant climate change impacts in the form of coral reef bleaching and increasingly severe cyclones. We develop knowledge of environmental cultural services with the Environmental Schwartz Value Survey (ESVS) into four human value orientations that can explain individuals' environmental beliefs and behaviors: biospheric (i.e., concern for environment), altruistic (i.e., concern for others, and intrinsic values), egoistic (i.e., concern for personal resources) and hedonic values (i.e., concern for pleasure, comfort, esthetic, and spirituality). Using face-to-face quantitative survey techniques, where 1,934 residents were asked to agree or disagree with a range of statements on a scale of 1-10, we investigate people's (i) environmental values and value orientations, (ii) perceptions of environmental condition, and (iii) perceptions of impact on self. We show how they relate to the following climate change responses; (i) beliefs at a global and local scale, (ii) participation in pro-environmental behaviors, and (iii) levels of grief associated with ecological change, as measured by respective single survey questions. Results suggest that biospheric and altruistic values influenced all climate change responses. Egoistic values were only influential on grief responses. Perception of environmental change was important in influencing beliefs and grief, and perceptions of impact on self were only important in influencing beliefs. These results suggest that environmental managers could use people's environmental value orientations to more effectively influence climate change responses toward environmental stewardship and sustainability. Communications that target or encourage altruism (through understanding and empathy), biospherism (through information on climate change impacts on the environment), and egoism (through emphasizing the benefits, health and wellbeing derived from a natural resource in good condition), could work.}, }
@article {pmid31273907, year = {2019}, author = {Cummins, D and Kennington, WJ and Rudin-Bitterli, T and Mitchell, NJ}, title = {A genome-wide search for local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog reveals vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {9}, pages = {3151-3162}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14703}, pmid = {31273907}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Anura ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Gene Flow ; Genetic Variation ; Genome ; }, abstract = {Terrestrial-breeding amphibians are likely to be vulnerable to warming and drying climates, as their embryos require consistent moisture for successful development. Adaptation to environmental change will depend on sufficient genetic variation existing within or between connected populations. Here, we use Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data to investigate genome-wide patterns in genetic diversity, gene flow and local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) subject to a rapidly drying climate and recent habitat fragmentation. The species was sampled across 12 central and range-edge populations (192 samples), and strong genetic structure was apparent, as were high inbreeding coefficients. Populations showed differences in genetic diversity, and one population lost significant genetic diversity in a decade. More than 500 SNP loci were putatively under directional selection, and 413 of these loci were correlated with environmental variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. One locus showed homology to a gene involved in the activation of maturation in Xenopus oocytes, which may facilitate rapid development of embryos in drier climates. The low genetic diversity, strong population structuring and presence of local adaptation revealed in this study shows why management strategies such as targeted gene flow may be necessary to assist isolated populations to adapt to future climates.}, }
@article {pmid31270911, year = {2019}, author = {Nocco, MA and Smail, RA and Kucharik, CJ}, title = {Observation of irrigation-induced climate change in the Midwest United States.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {10}, pages = {3472-3484}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14725}, pmid = {31270911}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; North America ; United States ; Wisconsin ; }, abstract = {Irrigated agriculture alters near-surface temperature and humidity, which may mask global climate change at the regional scale. However, observational studies of irrigation-induced climate change are lacking in temperate, humid regions throughout North America and Europe. Despite unknown climate impacts, irrigated agriculture is expanding in the Midwest United States, where unconfined aquifers provide groundwater to support crop production on coarse soils. This is the first study in the Midwest United States to observe and quantify differences in regional climate associated with irrigated agricultural conversion from forests and rainfed agriculture. To this end, we established a 60 km transect consisting of 28 stations across varying land uses and monitored surface air temperature and relative humidity for 31 months in the Wisconsin Central Sands region. We used a novel approach to quantify irrigated land use in both space and time with a database containing monthly groundwater withdrawal estimates by parcel for the state of Wisconsin. Irrigated agriculture decreased maximum temperatures and increased minimum temperatures, thus shrinking the diurnal temperature range (DTR) by an average of 3°C. Irrigated agriculture also decreased the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by an average of 0.10 kPa. Irrigated agriculture significantly decreased evaporative demand for 25% and 66% of study days compared to rainfed agriculture and forest, respectively. Differences in VPD across the land-use gradient were highest (0.21 kPa) during the peak of the growing season, while differences in DTR were comparable year-round. Interannual variability in temperature had greater impacts on differences in DTR and VPD across the land-use gradient than interannual variability in precipitation. These regional climate changes must be considered together with increased greenhouse gas emissions, changes to groundwater quality, and surface water degradation when evaluating the costs and benefits of groundwater-sourced irrigation expansion in the Midwest United States and similar regions around the world.}, }
@article {pmid31267598, year = {2019}, author = {Yazzie, JO and Fulé, PZ and Kim, YS and Sánchez Meador, A}, title = {Diné kinship as a framework for conserving native tree species in climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {e01944}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1944}, pmid = {31267598}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects all ecosystems but despite increasing recognition for the needs to integrate Indigenous knowledge with modern climate science, the epistemological differences between the two make it challenging. In this study, we present how Indigenous belief and knowledge system can frame the application of a modeling tool (Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator). We focus on managing forest ecosystem services of the Diné (Navajo) Nation as a case study. Most Diné tribal members depend directly on the land for their livelihoods and cultural traditions. The forest plays a vital role in Diné livelihoods through social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic factors. We simulated forest dynamics over time under alternative climate change scenarios and management strategies to identify forest management strategies that will maintain future ecosystem services. We initialized the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator model with data from permanent plots and site-specific growth models under multiple management systems (no-management, thinning, burning, and assisted migration planting) and different climate scenarios (no-climate-change, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0). Projections of climate change show average losses of basal area by over 65% by 2105, a shift in tree species composition to drier-adapted species, and a decrease in species diversity. While substantial forest loss was inevitable under the warming climate scenarios, the modeling framework allowed us to evaluate the management treatments, including planting, for conserving multiple tree species in mixed conifer forests, thus providing an anchor for biodiversity. We presented the modeling results and management implications and discuss how they can complement Diné kinship concepts. Our approach is a useful step for framing modern science with Indigenous Knowledge and for developing improved strategies to sustain natural resources and livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid31267230, year = {2019}, author = {Mayes, S and Ho, WK and Chai, HH and Gao, X and Kundy, AC and Mateva, KI and Zahrulakmal, M and Hahiree, MKIM and Kendabie, P and Licea, LCS and Massawe, F and Mabhaudhi, T and Modi, AT and Berchie, JN and Amoah, S and Faloye, B and Abberton, M and Olaniyi, O and Azam-Ali, SN}, title = {Bambara groundnut: an exemplar underutilised legume for resilience under climate change.}, journal = {Planta}, volume = {250}, number = {3}, pages = {803-820}, pmid = {31267230}, issn = {1432-2048}, support = {R3W26//international treaty for plant genetic resources for food and agriculture/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cooking/methods ; Crop Production/methods ; *Crops, Agricultural/genetics/growth &amp; development ; *Vigna/genetics/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Bambara groundnut has the potential to be used to contribute more the climate change ready agriculture. The requirement for nitrogen fixing, stress tolerant legumes is clear, particularly in low input agriculture. However, ensuring that existing negative traits are tackled and demand is stimulated through the development of markets and products still represents a challenge to making greater use of this legume. World agriculture is currently based on very limited numbers of crops, representing a significant risk to food supplies, particularly in the face of climate change which is expected to increase the frequency of extreme events. Minor and underutilised crops can help to develop a more resilient and nutritionally dense future agriculture. Bambara groundnut [Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.[, as a drought resistant, nitrogen-fixing, legume has a role to play. However, as with most underutilised crops, there are significant gaps in knowledge and also negative traits such as 'hard-to-cook' and 'photoperiod sensitivity to pod filling' associated with the crop which future breeding programmes and processing methods need to tackle, to allow it to make a significant contribution to the well-being of future generations. The current review assesses these factors and also considers what are the next steps towards realising the potential of this crop.}, }
@article {pmid31266964, year = {2019}, author = {Lane, SN and Bakker, M and Costa, A and Girardclos, S and Loizeau, JL and Molnar, P and Silva, T and Stutenbecker, L and Schlunegger, F}, title = {Making stratigraphy in the Anthropocene: climate change impacts and economic conditions controlling the supply of sediment to Lake Geneva.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {8904}, pmid = {31266964}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Anthropocene has been proposed as a profound, globally synchronous rupture in the history of the Earth System with its current state fundamentally different to that of the Holocene and driven by the geological force of human activity. Here, we show how stratigraphy is being made in a lake that is heavily impacted upon by climate change and human activities. For one of the largest inner-Alpine catchments in the European Alps, we draw attention to how sedimentation rates are a product of non-stationary, reflexive, human actions. In Lake Geneva, we identify both a human-induced climate change (HCC) signature and the effects of a recent economic shock on sediment extraction upon sediment loading to and sedimentation rates in the lake. The HCC signature thus reflects the nature of climate change impacts in this basin, where sediment accumulation rates evolve with climate, but where economic conditions contribute to shifts in the supply of sediment to the lake. Following social theory, we call this glocalization because of the combined importance and inseparability of human impacts across different spatial scales. The nature of human impacts on sediment delivery to the lake mean that the influence of humans is unlikely to be captured in the long-term depositional record.}, }
@article {pmid31266566, year = {2019}, author = {Chersich, MF and Swift, CP and Edelstein, I and Breetzke, G and Scorgie, F and Schutte, F and Wright, CY}, title = {Violence in hot weather: Will climate change exacerbate rates of violence in South Africa?.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {109}, number = {7}, pages = {447-449}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i7.14134}, pmid = {31266566}, issn = {2078-5135}, mesh = {Aggression ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Public Policy ; South Africa ; Violence/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid31266553, year = {2019}, author = {Boeckmann, M and Roux, T and Robinson, M and Areal, A and Durusu, D and Wernecke, B and Manyuchi, A and Pham, MD and Wang, C and Hetem, R and Harden, L and Vargas, E and Wright, CY and Erasmus, BFN and Rees, H and Vogel, C and Wang, S and Black, V and Mabhikwa, M and Chersich Climate Change And Heat-Health Study Group, MF}, title = {Climate change and control of diarrhoeal diseases in South Africa: Priorities for action.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {109}, number = {6}, pages = {359-361}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i6.14075}, pmid = {31266553}, issn = {2078-5135}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; Disease Outbreaks ; Dysentery/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control/therapy ; Extreme Heat ; *Health Priorities ; Humans ; South Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid31265969, year = {2019}, author = {Díaz, J and López-Bueno, JA and Sáez, M and Mirón, IJ and Luna, MY and Sánchez-Martínez, G and Carmona, R and Barceló, MA and Linares, C}, title = {Will there be cold-related mortality in Spain over the 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 time horizons despite the increase in temperatures as a consequence of climate change?.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {176}, number = {}, pages = {108557}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.108557}, pmid = {31265969}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; Environmental Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hot Temperature ; Mortality/*trends ; Retrospective Studies ; Spain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Global warming is resulting in an increase in temperatures which is set to become more marked by the end of the century and depends on the accelerating pace of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Yet even in this scenario, so-called "cold waves" will continue to be generated and have an impact on health.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This study sought to analyse the impact of cold waves on daily mortality at a provincial level in Spain over the 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 time horizons under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, on the basis of two hypotheses: (1) that the cold-wave definition temperature (T threshold) would not vary over time; and, (2) that there would be a variation in T threshold.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: The results of a retrospective study undertaken for Spain as a whole across the period 2000-2009 enabled us to ascertain the cold-wave definition temperature at a provincial level and its impact on health, measured by reference to population attributable risk (PAR). The minimum daily temperatures projected for each provincial capital considering the above time horizons and emission scenarios were provided by the State Meteorological Agency. On the basis of the T threshold definition values and minimum daily temperatures projected for each province, we calculated the expected impact of low temperatures on mortality under the above two hypotheses. Keeping the PAR values constant, it was assumed that the mortality rate would vary in accordance with the available data.<br><br>RESULTS: If T threshold remained constant over the above time horizons under both emission scenarios, there would be no cold-related mortality. If T threshold were assumed to vary over time, however, then cold-related mortality would not disappear: it would instead remain practically constant over time and give rise to an estimated overall figure of around 250 deaths per year, equivalent to close on a quarter of Spain's current annual cold-related mortality and entailing a cost of approximately &#x20ac;1000 million per year.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Given that cold waves are not going to disappear and that their impact on mortality is far from negligible and is likely to remain so, public health prevention measures must be implemented to minimise these effects as far as possible.}, }
@article {pmid31263385, year = {2018}, author = {Deeb, R and Tufford, D and Scott, GI and Moore, JG and Dow, K}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Vibrio vulnificus Abundance and Exposure Risk.}, journal = {Estuaries and coasts : journal of the Estuarine Research Federation}, volume = {41}, number = {8}, pages = {2289-2303}, pmid = {31263385}, issn = {1559-2723}, support = {P01 ES028942/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Vibrio species are marine bacteria that occur in estuaries worldwide; many are virulent human pathogens with high levels of antibiotic resistance. The average annual incidence of all Vibrio infections has increased by 41% between 1996 and 2005. V. vulnificus (Vv), a species associated with shellfish and occurring in the US Southeast, has ranges of temperature (16-33 °C) and salinity (5-20 ppt) dependencies for optimal growth. Increased water temperatures caused by atmospheric warming and increased salinity gradients caused by sea level rise raise concerns for the effect of climate change on the geographic range of Vv and the potential for increased exposure risk. This research combined monthly field sampling, laboratory analysis, and modeling to identify the current occurrence of Vv in the Winyah Bay estuary (South Carolina, USA) and assess the possible effects of climate change on future geographic range and exposure risk in the estuary. Vv concentrations ranged from 0 to 58 colony forming units (CFU)/mL, salinities ranged from 0 to 28 ppt, and temperature from 18 to 31 °C. A significant empirical relationship was found between Vv concentration and salinity and temperature that fit well with published optimal ranges for growth for these environmental parameters. These results, when coupled with an existing model of future specific conductance, indicated that sea level rise has a greater impact on exposure risk than temperature increases in the estuary. Risk increased by as much as four times compared to current conditions with the largest temporally widespread increase at the most upriver site where currently there is minimal risk.}, }
@article {pmid31263272, year = {2019}, author = {Salinitro, M and Alessandrini, A and Zappi, A and Tassoni, A}, title = {Impact of climate change and urban development on the flora of a southern European city: analysis of biodiversity change over a 120-year period.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {9464}, pmid = {31263272}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Plant Development/physiology ; Principal Component Analysis ; *Urban Renewal ; }, abstract = {Ecological studies in cities are not only aimed at investigating floristic diversity, but also represent informative test cases for understanding ecological system dynamics and responses to urban and climate changes since cities represent microcosms of environmental changes happening globally. The city of Bologna was selected as a case study since two specific and complete studies have been carried out in a 120-years timespan, one in 1894 and one in 2018. Since 1894, a large increase occurred in the number of taxa (families from 41 to 101, species from 176 to 477) and alien species (from 22 to 144), with a 65% total species turnover. The comparison of species life forms pointed out a noticeable recent expansion of phanerophytes and geophytes at the expense of therophytes and hemicryptophytes. The correlation between urbanistic features and plant richness indicated that the main factor affecting plant richness is the presence of green spaces (parks, tree lines, flowerbeds, etc.). Analysis of variation in Ellenberg's indicator values over the last 120 years evidenced a shift toward shade-tolerant species, mainly connected to the increased presence of parks and trees within the city. Climate change and the presence of artificially irrigated areas within the city has led to an increase in both hygrophilous and drought-resistant species. In particular, the temperature index showed a significantly higher amount of macrothermal species in accordance with a warmer climate and the urban heat island effect.}, }
@article {pmid31262729, year = {2019}, author = {Bamji, AN}, title = {Climate change: overpopulation and landscape manipulation.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {l4423}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l4423}, pmid = {31262729}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Population Density ; }, }
@article {pmid31262299, year = {2019}, author = {Vause, BJ and Morley, SA and Fonseca, VG and Jażdżewska, A and Ashton, GV and Barnes, DKA and Giebner, H and Clark, MS and Peck, LS}, title = {Spatial and temporal dynamics of Antarctic shallow soft-bottom benthic communities: ecological drivers under climate change.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {27}, pmid = {31262299}, issn = {1472-6785}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Ice Cover ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Marine soft sediments are some of the most widespread habitats in the ocean, playing a vital role in global carbon cycling, but are amongst the least studied with regard to species composition and ecosystem functioning. This is particularly true of the Polar Regions, which are currently undergoing rapid climate change, the impacts of which are poorly understood. Compared to other latitudes, Polar sediment habitats also experience additional environmental drivers of strong seasonality and intense disturbance from iceberg scouring, which are major structural forces for hard substratum communities. This study compared sediment assemblages from two coves, near Rothera Point, Antarctic Peninsula, 67°S in order to understand the principal drivers of community structure, for the first time, evaluating composition across all size classes from mega- to micro-fauna.<br><br>RESULTS: Morpho-taxonomy identified 77 macrofaunal species with densities of 464-16,084 individuals m[-2]. eDNA metabarcoding of microfauna, in summer only, identified a higher diversity, 189 metazoan amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) using the 18S ribosomal RNA and 249 metazoan ASVs using the mitochondrial COI gene. Both techniques recorded a greater taxonomic diversity in South Cove than Hangar Cove, with differences in communities between the coves, although the main taxonomic drivers varied between techniques. Morphotaxonomy identified the main differences between coves as the mollusc, Altenaeum charcoti, the cnidarian Edwardsia sp. and the polychaetes from the family cirratulidae. Metabarcoding identified greater numbers of species of nematodes, crustaceans and Platyhelminthes in South Cove, but more bivalve species in Hangar Cove. There were no detectable differences in community composition, measured through morphotaxonomy, between seasons, years or due to iceberg disturbance.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study found that unlike hard substratum communities the diversity of Antarctic soft sediment communities is correlated with the same factors as other latitudes. Diversity was significantly correlated with grain size and organic content, not iceberg scour. The increase in glacial sediment input as glaciers melt, may therefore be more important than increased iceberg disturbance.}, }
@article {pmid31259746, year = {2019}, author = {Vega, A and Castro, L}, title = {Impact of climate change on insect-human interactions.}, journal = {Current opinion in allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {475-481}, doi = {10.1097/ACI.0000000000000565}, pmid = {31259746}, issn = {1473-6322}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropod Venoms/*toxicity ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Hymenoptera/*physiology ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology ; Insect Bites and Stings/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To update the influence of the global climate change on Hymenoptera venom allergy.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change facilitates biological invasions of hymenopteran species and plays a role in the impact of introduced species relevant for human health. It contributes to a rise in the incidence of sting injuries and allergy reactions across the world.<br><br>SUMMARY: Global climate change has contributed to the expansion and the redistribution of allergenic insect species, increasing the number of allergy cases caused by stinging insects worldwide. Imported insects are trending species in systemic reactions for multiple stings or hymenopteran venom allergy. They represent a threat for humans and a challenge for the allergists.}, }
@article {pmid31258813, year = {2019}, author = {Flynn, M and Ford, JD and Labbé, J and Schrott, L and Tagalik, S}, title = {Evaluating the effectiveness of hazard mapping as climate change adaptation for community planning in degrading permafrost terrain.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {1041-1056}, pmid = {31258813}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {Permafrost in northern Canada is susceptible to degradation due to rapid climate change, with hazard mapping promoted as an important activity to guide sustainable community adaptation and planning. This paper presents a framework for evaluating permafrost mapping exercises designed to inform climate change adaptation actions. We apply the framework using a case study of the Incorporating Climate Change into Land Development-Terrain Analysis project (ICCiLD). ICCiLD is a hazard mapping project utilizing interferometric synthetic aperture radar to monitor ground disturbance and categorize land development suitability in seven communities in the territory of Nunavut, Canada. We looked at one of the communities, Arviat, as our case study. We examined technical data and drew upon semi-structured interviews (n = 19) with map creators and users. We found ICCiLD added new and relevant information for community planning, increased awareness of the risks posed by permafrost thaw and built stakeholder relations. Strong coordination and high public consciousness of local climate impacts emerged as key factors underpinning project success. Nevertheless, in the case of Arviat, the effectiveness of the hazard maps in influencing land-use planning was constrained by communication challenges between project creators and end-users. These challenges included limited community access to the data and uncertainty surrounding how to operationalize the map suitability classifications. Broader climate change adaptation challenges included the presence of other more immediate community planning priorities and a limited ability to incorporate Indigenous ways of knowing into a technical mapping project. The lessons from this evaluation provide insight for the development of mapping-based adaptations across Arctic regions.}, }
@article {pmid31257600, year = {2019}, author = {Borghi, M and Perez de Souza, L and Yoshida, T and Fernie, AR}, title = {Flowers and climate change: a metabolic perspective.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {224}, number = {4}, pages = {1425-1441}, doi = {10.1111/nph.16031}, pmid = {31257600}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/metabolism/physiology ; Droughts ; Flowers/metabolism/*physiology ; *Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; Hot Temperature ; Pigmentation ; Plant Nectar/chemistry/*metabolism ; Pollen/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Pollination/physiology ; Signal Transduction ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Adverse climatic conditions at the time of flowering severely hinder crop yields and threaten the interactions between plants and their pollinators. These features depend on a common trait: the metabolism of flowers. In this Viewpoint article, we aim to provide insight into the metabolic changes that occur in flowers in response to changes in climate and emphasize that these changes severely impact the fitness of autogamous and allogamous species, plant-pollinator interactions, and overall ecosystem health. We review the biochemical processes that lead to failure of gamete development and to alterations of color, scent and nectar secretion. Then, making use of open access expression data, we examine the expression of genes that may drive these changes in response to heat and drought. Finally, we present measurements of metabolites from flowers exposed to a heat wave and discuss how the results of this short-term experiment may give rise to misleading conclusions regarding the positive effect of heat on flower fitness. We hope this article draws attention to this often-neglected dynamic and its important consequences.}, }
@article {pmid31256418, year = {2019}, author = {Eisenach, C}, title = {How plants respond to climate change: A new Virtual Special Issue of Plant, Cell &amp; Environment.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {42}, number = {9}, pages = {2537-2539}, doi = {10.1111/pce.13604}, pmid = {31256418}, issn = {1365-3040}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Plants/*drug effects/metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid31256407, year = {2019}, author = {Yu, TK and Chang, YJ and Chang, IC and Yu, TY}, title = {A pro-environmental behavior model for investigating the roles of social norm, risk perception, and place attachment on adaptation strategies of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {24}, pages = {25178-25189}, pmid = {31256407}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Floods ; Humans ; Intention ; Models, Theoretical ; *Social Norms ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Today's climate change is a major problem and challenge for the global environment and human civilization, and it can lead to dramatical floods over specific regions. As climate change intensifies, climate change adaptation strategies, such as flood insurance, energy taxes, and other risky financial strategies, have drawn worldwide attention and discussion. Risk control methods have been widely used to mitigate the impact of climate change on past flood losses, but past risk control strategies on climate change have not focused on the exploration of the relationship between environment, society, and humans. Based on the theoretical model of pro-environmental behavior, this study compares and analyzes four theoretical models and proposes a modified competitiveness model to effectively predict the pro-environmental behavior of college students with partial least squares (PLS) manner. Social norm could play a dominant role of mediator between risk perception, place attachment, and pro-environmental behavior. Although risk perception and local attachment are positively related to risk financial strategy, the promotion of social norms will increase the intention of risk financial strategy. For intention of risk financial strategies within pro-environmental behavior, the efficiency of enhancing local attachment was higher than that of risk perception.}, }
@article {pmid31255964, year = {2019}, author = {Yu, TK and Lin, FY and Kao, KY and Chao, CM and Yu, TY}, title = {An innovative environmental citizen behavior model: Recycling intention as climate change mitigation strategies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {247}, number = {}, pages = {499-508}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.06.101}, pmid = {31255964}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Intention ; Motivation ; Recycling ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been led to the increasing magnitude of frequency and severity of extreme weather, causing serious damage to overall economy of a country and individual economy of enterprises. Only relying on government subsidy to combat the impact of climate change, the work could be in vain. This study tries to use recycling action as mitigation strategies of climate change, and analyze the dominant influencing factors that affect recycling intention. This study stands in the perspective of green education in universities, regards the recycling intentions in response to climate change as pro-environmental behaviors, and revises and verifies the citizen pro-environmental behavior model. The green educations programs can communicate, promote, active and internalize the environmental citizenship through resource recycling intentions. Students learn about the importance of advocacy and activism to environmental citizenship, then generate environmentally sustainable and recycling intentions, and achieve the goal of improving the environment and mitigating to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31254865, year = {2019}, author = {O'Connor, D and Zheng, X and Hou, D and Shen, Z and Li, G and Miao, G and O'Connell, S and Guo, M}, title = {Phytoremediation: Climate change resilience and sustainability assessment at a coastal brownfield redevelopment.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {130}, number = {}, pages = {104945}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.104945}, pmid = {31254865}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {*Biodegradation, Environmental ; California ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; Hazardous Waste Sites ; Models, Theoretical ; Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {Phytoremediation offers a nature based solution (NBS) for contaminated soil remediation; however, its application under a brownfield redevelopment context has not been well studied. Moreover, climate change could impact large numbers of contaminated sites, yet there remains little research on the potential impacts for remediation. This study examined phytoremediation at a brownfield redevelopment in the San Francisco Bay area, where thousands of cleanup sites are vulnerable to rising sea levels. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to determine both primary and secondary impacts and the system's resilience to various sea level scenarios and hydroclimatic conditions was investigated. It was found that the phytoremediation project rendered only a small environmental footprint, and was associated with low cost and substantial socioeconomic benefits. For instance, it fitted well with the site redevelopment setting by offering attractive landscape features. Moreover, under a modeled moderate sea level rise scenario, the groundwater hydraulic gradient at the site decreased, which was coupled with greater natural biodegradation and reduced plume migration, and, therefore, lower life cycle impact. There was also minimal increase in the vapor intrusion risk with increased sea level. Overall, phytoremediation at the site was found to be resilient to a moderate sea level rise and other hydroclimatic effects induced by climate change. However, the system performance responded to increasing sea level rise in a non-linear manner. Under a high sea level rise scenario, the system is predicted to perform abruptly worse.}, }
@article {pmid31254636, year = {2019}, author = {Miller, LP and Dowd, WW}, title = {Repeatable patterns of small-scale spatial variation in intertidal mussel beds and their implications for responses to climate change.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {236}, number = {}, pages = {110516}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.06.016}, pmid = {31254636}, issn = {1531-4332}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; Body Temperature/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Hot Temperature ; Mytilus/*physiology ; Time Factors ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The interaction of ocean conditions and weather with small-scale physical features of a habitat can have profound effects on the experiences of individual organisms. On topographically complex shorelines, and particularly within dense aggregations of organisms such as mussel beds, a mosaic of environmental conditions can develop, and the resulting variation in conditions within the aggregation could drastically alter the performance of neighboring individuals. Using a suite of sensors mounted to individual Mytilus californianus mussels over two summer field deployments, we have characterized the temperature variation and valve gaping behavior differences found at two spatial scales: within a group separated by centimeters, and between groups of mussels located at the upper and lower extents of the natural mussel zone separated by meters. While temperature conditions near the lower edge of the mussel bed were generally more benign, temperature extremes were similar at both heights in the bed, and variation in body temperature among neighbors increased as the daily mean temperature increased. These patterns were similar across years despite a 3.8 °C difference in mean air and seawater temperatures between years. Gaping behavior was also highly variable among individuals, though that variability diminished at the high end of the mussel bed where the total time mussels spent submerged was much more constrained. These data indicate that an individual mussel's physiological status and past history can be drastically different than those of its nearby neighbors, complicating our ability to characterize representative conditions within a habitat. These observations also provide for the possibility that the impacts of future climate change will be highly specific to certain individuals based on their relative exposure or protection within the mosaic. To address such possibilities, future work must examine the correlation between genotypic and physiological traits that determine performance and individuals' unique experiences in their disparate micro-environments.}, }
@article {pmid31252133, year = {2019}, author = {Wijesiri, B and Liu, A and Hong, N and Zhu, P and Yang, B and Zhao, X and Goonetilleke, A}, title = {Rethinking hydrocarbons build-up on urban roads: A perspective on volatilisation under global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {252}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {950-959}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.06.044}, pmid = {31252133}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Global Warming ; Hydrocarbons/*analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain/*chemistry ; Temperature ; Uncertainty ; Urbanization ; Volatilization ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Stormwater is viewed as an alternative resource to mitigate water shortages. However, stormwater reuse is constrained due to the presence of many toxic pollutants such as hydrocarbons. Effective mitigation requires robust mathematical models for stormwater quality prediction based on an understanding of pollutant processes. However, the rise in global temperatures will impose changes to pollutant processes. This study has proposed a new perspective on modelling the build-up process of hydrocarbons, with a focus on volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Among organic compounds, VOCs are the most susceptible to changes as a result of global warming due to their volatility. Seven VOCs, namely, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, para-xylene, meta-xylene, ortho-xylene and styrene in road dust were investigated. The outcomes are expected to lay the foundation to overcoming the limitations in current modelling approaches such as not considering the influence of temperature and volatility, on the build-up process. A new conceptualisation is proposed for the classical build-up model by mathematically defining the volatility of VOCs in terms of temperature. Uncertainty in the re-conceptualised build-up model was quantified and was used to understand the build-up patterns in the future scenarios of global warming. Results indicated that for the likely scenarios, the variability in VOCs build-up gradually increases at the beginning of the dry period and then rapidly increases after around seven days, while the build-up reaches a near-constant value in a shorter dry period, limiting the variability. These initial research outcomes need to be further investigated given the expected impacts of global warming into the future.}, }
@article {pmid31250895, year = {2019}, author = {Levin, DA}, title = {Plant speciation in the age of climate change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {124}, number = {5}, pages = {769-775}, pmid = {31250895}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Diploidy ; Genetic Speciation ; Humans ; *Hybridization, Genetic ; Plants ; Polyploidy ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Species diversity is likely to undergo a sharp decline in the next century. Perhaps as many as 33 % of all plant species may expire as a result of climate change. All parts of the globe will be impacted, and all groups of organisms will be affected. Hundreds of species throughout the world have already experienced local extinction.<br><br>PERSPECTIVES: While thousands of species may become extinct in the next century and beyond, species formation will still occur. I consider which modes of plant species formation are likely to prevail in the next 500 years. I argue that speciation primarily will involve mechanisms that produce reproductively isolated lineages within less (often much less) than 100 generations. I will not especially consider the human element in promoting species formation, because it will continue and because the conclusions presented here are unaffected by it. The impact of climate change may be much more severe and widespread.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The most common modes of speciation likely to be operative in the next 500 years ostensibly will be auto- and allopolyploidy. Polyploid species or the antecedents thereof can arise within two generations. Moreover, polyploids often have broader ecological tolerances, and are likely to be more invasive than are their diploid relatives. Polyploid species may themselves spawn additional higher level polyploids either through crosses with diploid species or between pre-existing polyploids. The percentage of polyploid species is likely to exceed 50 % within the next 500 years vs. 35 % today. The stabilized hybrid derivatives (homoploid hybrid speciation) could emerge within a hundred generations after species contact, as could speciation involving chromosomal rearrangements (and perhaps number), but the number of such events is likely to be low. Speciation involving lineage splitting will be infrequent because the formation of substantive pre- and post-zygotic barriers typically takes many thousands of years.}, }
@article {pmid31249824, year = {2019}, author = {Liu-Helmersson, J and Brännström, &#xc5; and Sewe, MO and Semenza, JC and Rocklöv, J}, title = {Estimating Past, Present, and Future Trends in the Global Distribution and Abundance of the Arbovirus Vector Aedes aegypti Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {148}, pmid = {31249824}, issn = {2296-2565}, abstract = {Background: Aedes aegypti is the principal vector for several important arbovirus diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika. While recent empirical research has attempted to identify the current global distribution of the vector, the seasonal, and longer-term dynamics of the mosquito in response to trends in climate, population, and economic development over the twentieth and the twenty-first century remains to be elucidated. Methods: In this study, we use a process-based mathematical model to estimate global vector distribution and abundance. The model is based on the lifecycle of the vector and its dependence on climate, and the model sensitivity to socio-economic development is tested. Model parameters were generally empirically based, and the model was calibrated to global databases and time series of occurrence and abundance records. Climate data on temperature and rainfall were taken from CRU TS3.25 (1901-2015) and five global circulation models (CMIP5; 2006-2099) forced by a high-end (RCP8.5) and a low-end (RCP2.6) emission scenario. Socio-economic data on global GDP and human population density were from ISIMIP (1950-2099). Findings: The change in the potential of global abundance in A. aegypti over the last century up to today is estimated to be an increase of 9.5% globally and a further increase of 20 or 30% by the end of this century under a low compared to a high carbon emission future, respectively. The largest increase has occurred in the last two decades, indicating a tipping point in climate-driven global abundance which will be stabilized at the earliest in the mid-twenty-first century. The realized abundance is estimated to be sensitive to socioeconomic development. Interpretation: Our data indicate that climate change mitigation, i.e., following the Paris Agreement, could considerably help in suppressing risks of increased abundance and emergence of A. aegypti globally in the second half of the twenty-first century.}, }
@article {pmid31249690, year = {2019}, author = {Morgan, R and Sundin, J and Finnøen, MH and Dresler, G and Vendrell, MM and Dey, A and Sarkar, K and Jutfelt, F}, title = {Are model organisms representative for climate change research? Testing thermal tolerance in wild and laboratory zebrafish populations.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coz036}, pmid = {31249690}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Model organisms can be useful for studying climate change impacts, but it is unclear whether domestication to laboratory conditions has altered their thermal tolerance and therefore how representative of wild populations they are. Zebrafish in the wild live in fluctuating thermal environments that potentially reach harmful temperatures. In the laboratory, zebrafish have gone through four decades of domestication and adaptation to stable optimal temperatures with few thermal extremes. If maintaining thermal tolerance is costly or if genetic traits promoting laboratory fitness at optimal temperature differ from genetic traits for high thermal tolerance, the thermal tolerance of laboratory zebrafish could be hypothesized to be lower than that of wild zebrafish. Furthermore, very little is known about the thermal environment of wild zebrafish and how close to their thermal limits they live. Here, we compared the acute upper thermal tolerance (critical thermal maxima; CTmax) of wild zebrafish measured on-site in West Bengal, India, to zebrafish at three laboratory acclimation/domestication levels: wild-caught, F1 generation wild-caught and domesticated laboratory AB-WT line. We found that in the wild, CTmax increased with increasing site temperature. Yet at the warmest site, zebrafish lived very close to their thermal limit, suggesting that they may currently encounter lethal temperatures. In the laboratory, acclimation temperature appeared to have a stronger effect on CTmax than it did in the wild. The fish in the wild also had a 0.85-1.01°C lower CTmax compared to all laboratory populations. This difference between laboratory-held and wild populations shows that environmental conditions can affect zebrafish's thermal tolerance. However, there was no difference in CTmax between the laboratory-held populations regardless of the domestication duration. This suggests that thermal tolerance is maintained during domestication and highlights that experiments using domesticated laboratory-reared model species can be appropriate for addressing certain questions on thermal tolerance and global warming impacts.}, }
@article {pmid31249081, year = {2019}, author = {Lawson, E}, title = {Debrief: Meeting the climate change challenge.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {69}, number = {684}, pages = {343}, pmid = {31249081}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Community Health Services/*organization &amp; administration ; General Practitioners ; Humans ; Primary Health Care/*organization &amp; administration ; *Public Health ; State Medicine ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid31247003, year = {2019}, author = {Van der Fels-Klerx, HJ and Vermeulen, LC and Gavai, AK and Liu, C}, title = {Climate change impacts on aflatoxin B1 in maize and aflatoxin M1 in milk: A case study of maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218956}, pmid = {31247003}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Aflatoxin B1/*analysis ; Aflatoxin M1/*analysis ; Animal Feed/analysis ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Europe, Eastern ; Food Contamination/analysis ; Introduced Species ; Milk/*chemistry ; Models, Theoretical ; Netherlands ; Zea mays/chemistry/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Various models and datasets related to aflatoxins in the maize and dairy production chain have been developed and used but they have not yet been linked with each other. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on aflatoxin B1 production in maize and its consequences on aflatoxin M1 contamination in dairy cow's milk, using a full chain modelling approach. To this end, available models and input data were chained together in a modelling framework. As a case study, we focused on maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands to be fed-as part of dairy cows' compound feed-to dairy cows in the Netherlands. Three different climate models, one aflatoxin B1 prediction model and five different carryover models were used. For this particular case study of East European maize, most of the calculations suggest an increase (up to 50%) of maximum mean aflatoxin M1 in milk by 2030, except for one climate (DMI) model suggesting a decrease. Results from all combinations of carryover and climate models suggest a similar or slight increase (up to 0.6%) of the chance of finding aflatoxin M1 in milk above the EC limit of 0.05 μg/kg by 2030. Results varied mainly with the climate model data and carryover model considered. The model framework infrastructure is flexible so that forecasting models for other mycotoxins or other food safety hazards as well as other production chains, together with necessary input databases, can easily be included as well. This modelling framework for the first time links datasets and models related to aflatoxin B1 in maize and related aflatoxin M1 the dairy production chain to obtain a unique predictive methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. Such an integrated approach with scenario analysis provides possibilities for policy makers and risk managers to study the effects of changes in the beginning of the chain on the end product.}, }
@article {pmid31246980, year = {2019}, author = {Vahdati, K and Massah Bavani, AR and Khosh-Khui, M and Fakour, P and Sarikhani, S}, title = {Applying the AOGCM-AR5 models to the assessments of land suitability for walnut cultivation in response to climate change: A case study of Iran.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218725}, pmid = {31246980}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate ; Climate Change ; Crop Production/methods/trends ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Environmental Monitoring ; Geographic Information Systems ; Iran ; Juglans/*growth &amp; development ; Models, Theoretical ; Natural Resources ; Prospective Studies ; Soil ; Water Resources/supply &amp; distribution ; }, abstract = {Due to higher temperatures and lower water availability, climate change is likely to have a major impact on walnut production in the near future. Climate change will alter the land suitability for walnut cultivation around the world, especially in arid and semi-arid regions like Iran. Here, land suitability for the cultivation of walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Iran was determined using the GIS for present and future conditions (2020-2049) with an approach to climate change. Accordingly, data from 375 synoptic stations throughout Iran were gathered for climatic factors including average, minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity and chilling requirement. Also, ASTER sensors (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) and their data provided this research with cells that make a precision of 150 m (5 s), and the data were used for gauging geological parameters such as altitude and land slope. The electrical conductivity (EC) of soil and water were informed by the data bank of the Iranian Water Resources Management. The results of temperature simulations for the future (2020-2049) were analyzed by 21 AOGCM-AR5 models under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. In the first phase of evaluations, the maps of land suitability were constructed for present conditions by considering a network of the above-mentioned parameters. By combining these layers of information, the final map of land suitability was illustrated for walnut cultivation. In the second phase, the NEX-GDDP was used in order to determine land suitability for the future (2020-2049). The results showed that Iran currently has 582844 km2 of land suitable for walnut cultivation. However, the future will see less suitable lands: the current area will be reduced by 6.19%, from 582844 km2 to 546710 km2. In general, the northern, northwestern and western margins of Iran are currently suitable for walnut cultivation. By approximation, these lands will also be major areas for prospective cultivations of walnut in the future (2020-2049), even though their current stretch will be reduced.}, }
@article {pmid31244082, year = {2019}, author = {Kalcic, MM and Muenich, RL and Basile, S and Steiner, AL and Kirchhoff, C and Scavia, D}, title = {Climate Change and Nutrient Loading in the Western Lake Erie Basin: Warming Can Counteract a Wetter Future.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {13}, pages = {7543-7550}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b01274}, pmid = {31244082}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Great Lakes Region ; *Lakes ; Nutrients ; Phosphorus ; }, abstract = {In the past 20 years, Lake Erie has experienced a resurgence of harmful algal blooms and hypoxia driven by increased nutrient loading from its agriculturally dominated watersheds. The increase in phosphorus loading, specifically the dissolved reactive portion, has been attributed to a combination of changing climate and agricultural management. While many management practices and strategies have been identified to reduce phosphorus loads, the impacts of future climate remain uncertain. This is particularly the case for the Great Lakes region because many global climate models do not accurately represent the land-lake interactions that govern regional climate. For this study, we used midcentury (2046-2065) climate projections from one global model and four regional dynamically downscaled models as drivers for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool configured for the Maumee River watershed, the source of almost 50% of Lake Erie's Western Basin phosphorus load. Our findings suggest that future warming may lead to less nutrient runoff due to increased evapotranspiration and decreased snowfall, despite projected moderate increases in intensity and overall amount of precipitation. Results highlight the benefits of considering multiple environmental drivers in determining the fate of nutrients in the environment and demonstrate a need to improve approaches for climate change assessment using watershed models.}, }
@article {pmid31243844, year = {2019}, author = {Eaton, MJ and Yurek, S and Haider, Z and Martin, J and Johnson, FA and Udell, BJ and Charkhgard, H and Kwon, C}, title = {Spatial conservation planning under uncertainty: adapting to climate change risks using modern portfolio theory.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {e01962}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1962}, pmid = {31243844}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate change and urban growth impact habitats, species, and ecosystem services. To buffer against global change, an established adaptation strategy is designing protected areas to increase representation and complementarity of biodiversity features. Uncertainty regarding the scale and magnitude of landscape change complicates reserve planning and exposes decision makers to the risk of failing to meet conservation goals. Conservation planning tends to treat risk as an absolute measure, ignoring the context of the management problem and risk preferences of stakeholders. Application of risk management theory to conservation emphasizes the diversification of a portfolio of assets, with the goal of reducing the impact of system volatility on investment return. We use principles of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which quantifies risk as the variance and correlation among assets, to formalize diversification as an explicit strategy for managing risk in climate-driven reserve design. We extend MPT to specify a framework that evaluates multiple conservation objectives, allows decision makers to balance management benefits and risk when preferences are contested or unknown, and includes additional decision options such as parcel divestment when evaluating candidate reserve designs. We apply an efficient search algorithm that optimizes portfolio design for large conservation problems and a game theoretic approach to evaluate portfolio trade-offs that satisfy decision makers with divergent benefit and risk tolerances, or when a single decision maker cannot resolve their own preferences. Evaluating several risk profiles for a case study in South Carolina, our results suggest that a reserve design may be somewhat robust to differences in risk attitude but that budgets will likely be important determinants of conservation planning strategies, particularly when divestment is considered a viable alternative. We identify a possible fiscal threshold where adequate resources allow protecting a sufficiently diverse portfolio of habitats such that the risk of failing to achieve conservation objectives is considerably lower. For a range of sea-level rise projections, conversion of habitat to open water (14-180%) and wetland loss (1-7%) are unable to be compensated under the current protected network. In contrast, optimal reserve design outcomes are predicted to ameliorate expected losses relative to current and future habitat protected under the existing conservation estate.}, }
@article {pmid31241909, year = {2019}, author = {Vione, D and Scozzaro, A}, title = {Photochemistry of Surface Fresh Waters in the Framework of Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {14}, pages = {7945-7963}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b00968}, pmid = {31241909}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Kinetics ; Photochemical Processes ; Photolysis ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical ; }, abstract = {Photochemical processes taking place in surface fresh waters play an important role in the transformation of biorecalcitrant pollutants and some natural compounds and in the inactivation of microorganisms. Such processes are divided into direct photolysis, where a molecule is transformed following sunlight absorption, and indirect photochemistry, where naturally occurring photosensitizers absorb sunlight and produce a range of transient species that can transform dissolved molecules (or inactivate microorganisms). Photochemistry is usually favored in thoroughly illuminated shallow waters, while the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) acts as a switch between different photochemical pathways (direct photolysis, and indirect photochemistry triggered by different transient species). Various phenomena connected with climate change (water browning, changing precipitations) may affect water DOC and water depth, with implications for the kinetics of photoreactions and the associated transformation pathways. The latter are important because they often produce peculiar intermediates, with particular health and environmental impacts. Further climate-induced effects with photochemical implications are shorter ice-cover seasons and enhanced duration of summer stratification in lakes, as well as changes in the flow velocity of rivers that affect the photodegradation time scale. This contribution aims at showing how the different climate-related phenomena can affect photoreactions and which approaches can be followed to quantitatively describe these variations.}, }
@article {pmid31239485, year = {2019}, author = {Vesely, FM and Paleari, L and Movedi, E and Bellocchi, G and Confalonieri, R}, title = {Quantifying Uncertainty Due to Stochastic Weather Generators in Climate Change Impact Studies.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {9258}, pmid = {31239485}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change studies involve complex processes translating coarse climate change projections in locally meaningful terms. We analysed the behaviour of weather generators while downscaling precipitation and air temperature data. With multiple climate indices and alternative weather generators, we directly quantified the uncertainty associated with using weather generators when site specific downscaling is performed. We extracted the influence of weather generators on climate variability at local scale and the uncertainty that could affect impact assessment. For that, we first designed the downscaling experiments with three weather generators (CLIMAK, LARS-WG, WeaGETS) to interpret future projections. Then we assessed the impacts of estimated changes of precipitation and air temperature for a sample of 15 sites worldwide using a rice yield model and an extended set of climate metrics. We demonstrated that the choice of a weather generator in the downscaling process may have a higher impact on crop yield estimates than the climate scenario adopted. Should they be confirmed, these results would indicate that widely accepted outcomes of climate change studies using this downscaling technique need reconsideration.}, }
@article {pmid31239484, year = {2019}, author = {Ranasinghe, R and Wu, CS and Conallin, J and Duong, TM and Anthony, EJ}, title = {Disentangling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on fluvial sediment supply to the coast by the world's large rivers: Pearl River Basin, China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {9236}, pmid = {31239484}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Geologic Sediments/*analysis ; Human Activities/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Hydrology ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The world's large rivers are under stress and experiencing unprecedented changes in hydrology, ecosystems, and fluvial sediment loads. Many of these rivers terminate at the great deltas of the world (home to 500 million people), which depend on fluvial sediments for their very existence. While fluvial sediment loads of large rivers have already been greatly modified by human activities, climate change is expected to further exacerbate the situation. But how does the effect of climate change on fluvial sediment loads compare with that of human impacts? Here, we address this question by combining historical observations and 21[st] century projections for one of the world's largest 25 rivers containing two mega dams; Pearl River, China. Our analysis shows that variations in fluvial sediment supply to the coast from the Pearl river over a ~150 year study period are dominated by human activities. Projected climate change driven 21[st] century increases in riverflow will only compensate for about 1% of the human induced deficit in sediment load, leading to the coastal zone being starved of about 6000 Mt of sediment over the remainder of this century. A similar dominance of human impacts on fluvial sediment supply is likely at other heavily engineered rivers.}, }
@article {pmid31237731, year = {2019}, author = {Kavousi, J}, title = {Biological interactions: The overlooked aspects of marine climate change refugia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {11}, pages = {3571-3573}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14743}, pmid = {31237731}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Refugium ; }, abstract = {This article emphasizes on biological interactions as an important overlooked criterion to better assess the chance of target marine species in potential refugia to survive climate change. It proposes future climate change refugia studies must consider the reciprocal interactions among climate change, biological factor, and conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid31236623, year = {2019}, author = {Garnier, M and Holman, I}, title = {Critical Review of Adaptation Measures to Reduce the Vulnerability of European Drinking Water Resources to the Pressures of Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {64}, number = {2}, pages = {138-153}, pmid = {31236623}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Drinking Water ; Europe ; Water Resources ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {One of the consequences of the generally agreed rise of global temperatures, furtherly exacerbated by the growth of water demand caused by the needs of a growing population, is an increase of areas with water stress. This will imply and in part is already implying, an always greater imbalance between water (and in particular drinking water) demand and supply. These issues are among those investigated by the "Adapting Drinking Water resources to the Impacts of Climate change in Europe" (ADWICE) project that had, among its main goals, the identification of priority adaptation measures aimed at reducing drinking water vulnerability to the pressures of a changing climate. In this paper these adaptation measures are described, with special attention given to their associated European water policy context. The complexity of designing and implementing such adaptation measures will benefit from integrating drinking water concerns with wider water management, within a framework able to facilitate the necessary complex collaborations between various actors involved in the different scales of the decision-making arena and to develop an effective science policy interfacing mechanism. Last, but not least, because drinking water is commonly considered by stakeholders and citizens to be a public service, drinking water managers should enable their involvement in the adaptation decision-making process, to ensure their acceptance and cooperation and to prevent conflicts.}, }
@article {pmid31236252, year = {2019}, author = {Ji, NN and Gao, C and Sandel, B and Zheng, Y and Chen, L and Wu, BW and Li, XC and Wang, YL and Lü, PP and Sun, X and Guo, LD}, title = {Late Quaternary climate change explains soil fungal community composition rather than fungal richness in forest ecosystems.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {6678-6692}, pmid = {31236252}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The dramatic climate fluctuations of the late Quaternary have influenced the diversity and composition of macroorganism communities, but how they structure belowground microbial communities is less well known. Fungi constitute an important component of soil microorganism communities. They play an important role in biodiversity maintenance, community assembly, and ecosystem functioning, and differ from many macroorganisms in many traits. Here, we examined soil fungal communities in Chinese temperate, subtropical, and tropic forests using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of the fungal ITS1 region. The relative effect of late Quaternary climate change and contemporary environment (plant, soil, current climate, and geographic distance) on the soil fungal community was analyzed. The richness of the total fungal community, along with saprotrophic, ectomycorrhizal (EM), and pathogenic fungal communities, was influenced primarily by the contemporary environment (plant and/or soil) but not by late Quaternary climate change. Late Quaternary climate change acted in concert with the contemporary environment to shape total, saprotrophic, EM, and pathogenic fungal community compositions and with a stronger effect in temperate forest than in tropic-subtropical forest ecosystems. Some contemporary environmental factors influencing total, saprotrophic, EM, and pathogenic fungal communities in temperate and tropic-subtropical forests were different. We demonstrate that late Quaternary climate change can help to explain current soil fungal community composition and argue that climatic legacies can help to predict soil fungal responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31236054, year = {2019}, author = {Shepherd, TG}, title = {Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information.}, journal = {Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {475}, number = {2225}, pages = {20190013}, pmid = {31236054}, issn = {1364-5021}, abstract = {Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and what will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects of climate change, but is ineffective when it comes to aspects of climate change related to atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet, atmospheric circulation strongly mediates climate impacts at the regional scale. In this way, the confidence framework, which focuses on avoiding type 1 errors (false alarms), raises the prospect of committing type 2 errors (missed warnings). This has ethical implications. At the regional scale, however, where information on climate change has to be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability and exposure-most of which are highly uncertain-the societally relevant question is not 'What will happen?' but rather 'What is the impact of particular actions under an uncertain regional climate change?' This reframing of the question can cut the Gordian knot of regional climate change information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties-something that is generally not done in climate projections. It is argued that the storyline approach to climate change-the identification of physically self-consistent, plausible pathways-has the potential to accomplish precisely this.}, }
@article {pmid31235700, year = {2019}, author = {van Ruijven, BJ and De Cian, E and Sue Wing, I}, title = {Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2762}, pmid = {31235700}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {756194//EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council)/International ; DE-SC0005171//DOE | SC | Biological and Environmental Research (BER)/International ; DE-SC0016162//DOE | SC | Biological and Environmental Research (BER)/International ; }, abstract = {Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under five socioeconomic scenarios and temperature increases around 2050 for two emission scenarios simulated by 21 Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we show that, across 210 realizations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, vigorous (moderate) warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation around 2050 by 25-58% (11-27%), on top of a factor 1.7-2.8 increase above present-day due to socioeconomic developments. We find broad agreement among ESMs that energy demand rises by more than 25% in the tropics and southern regions of the USA, Europe and China. Socioeconomic scenarios vary widely in the number of people in low-income countries exposed to increases in energy demand.}, }
@article {pmid31230387, year = {2019}, author = {Carvalho, SB and Torres, J and Tarroso, P and Velo-Antón, G}, title = {Genes on the edge: A framework to detect genetic diversity imperiled by climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {12}, pages = {4034-4047}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14740}, pmid = {31230387}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {PTDC/BIA-BIC/3545/2014//European Regional Development Fund/ ; NORTE 2020//Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme/ ; CEECIND/01464/2017//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; ICETA/EEC2018/16//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; IF/01425/2014//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e Tecnologia/ ; }, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Variation ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Ongoing global warming is disrupting several ecological and evolutionary processes, spanning different levels of biological organization. Species are expected to shift their ranges as a response to climate change, with relevant implications to peripheral populations at the trailing and leading edges. Several studies have analyzed the exposure of species to climate change but few have explored exposure at the intraspecific level. We introduce a framework to forecast exposure to climate change at the intraspecific level. We build on existing methods by combining correlative species distribution models, a model of species range dynamics, and a model of phylogeographic interpolation. We demonstrate the framework by applying it to 20 Iberian amphibian and reptile species. Our aims were to: (a) identify which species and intraspecific lineages will be most exposed to future climate change; (b) test if nucleotide diversity at the edges of species ranges are significantly higher or lower than on the overall range; and (c) analyze if areas of higher species gain, loss, and turnover coincide with those predicted for lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. We found that about 80% of the studied species are predicted to contract their range. Within each species, some lineages were predicted to contract their range, while others were predicted to maintain or expand it. Therefore, estimating the impacts of climate change at the species level only can underestimate losses at the intraspecific level. Some species had significant high amount of nucleotide at the trailing or leading edge, or both, but we did not find a consistent pattern across species. Spatial patterns of species richness, gain, loss, and turnover were fairly concurrent with lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. Our results support the need for increased attention to intraspecific diversity regarding monitoring and conservation strategies under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31228060, year = {2019}, author = {Khafaie, MA and Sayyah, M and Rahim, F}, title = {Extreme pollution, climate change, and depression.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {22}, pages = {22103-22105}, pmid = {31228060}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Depression ; Environmental Pollution ; Global Burden of Disease ; }, }
@article {pmid31228014, year = {2019}, author = {Lewandowsky, S and Cook, J and Fay, N and Gignac, GE}, title = {Science by social media: Attitudes towards climate change are mediated by perceived social consensus.}, journal = {Memory &amp; cognition}, volume = {47}, number = {8}, pages = {1445-1456}, pmid = {31228014}, issn = {1532-5946}, mesh = {Adult ; *Attitude ; *Blogging ; *Climate Change ; *Consensus ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Social Perception ; }, abstract = {Internet blogs have become an important platform for the discussion of many scientific issues, including climate change. Blogs, and in particular the comment sections of blogs, also play a major role in the dissemination of contrarian positions that question mainstream climate science. The effect of this content on people's attitudes is not fully understood. In particular, it is unknown how the interaction between the content of blog posts and blog comments affects readers' attitudes. We report an experiment that orthogonally varied those two variables using blog posts and comments that either did, or did not, support the scientific consensus on climate change. We find that beliefs are partially shaped by readers' perception of how widely an opinion expressed in a blog post appears to be shared by other readers. The perceived social consensus among readers, in turn, is determined by whether blog comments endorse or reject the contents of a post. When comments reject the content, perceived reader consensus is lower than when comments endorse the content. The results underscore the importance of perceived social consensus on opinion formation.}, }
@article {pmid31227948, year = {2020}, author = {Zhu, W and Yao, N and Guo, Q and Wang, F}, title = {Public risk perception and willingness to mitigate climate change: city smog as an example.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {881-893}, pmid = {31227948}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {17CGL046//National Social Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Attitude ; China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Intention ; Knowledge ; *Models, Theoretical ; Public Opinion ; Risk ; *Smog ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change harms people's health and ecosystems. Encouraging the public to adopt behaviors that help to combat climate change can, at the same time, contribute to efforts to control and solve related serious environmental problems. This study aims to ascertain the way in which the public perceives risks related to climate change and adopts behaviors to respond to the issue. Using city smog as an example, this study proposes a conceptual model that integrates the theory of planned behavior (TPB), smog knowledge and risk perception. It aims to elucidate determinants of smog-reduction behavior. Data were obtained through questionnaire surveys. The results confirm the relationships among the core variables of the TPB and risk perception. Firstly, they confirm that TPB is an effective model for predicting responses to city smog, and secondly, they show that risk perception is significantly positive in predicting attitude and behavioral intention. In addition, our analysis confirms that knowledge about smog is a positive antecedent variable in risk perception, attitude, and perceived behavioral control. The paper contributes to the extension of the TPB model and to the enrichment of its application in the context of city smog. It also has practical implications both for people experiencing city smog, and for authorities such as local governments and environmental organizations. Governments and organizations need to make efforts to spread information concerning the harmful effects of city smog, because in doing so they can strengthen people's intention to participate in smog-reduction behavior.}, }
@article {pmid31226560, year = {2019}, author = {Lienhardt, T and Black, K and Saget, S and Costa, MP and Chadwick, D and Rees, RM and Williams, M and Spillane, C and Iannetta, PM and Walker, G and Styles, D}, title = {Just the tonic! Legume biorefining for alcohol has the potential to reduce Europe's protein deficit and mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {130}, number = {}, pages = {104870}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.05.064}, pmid = {31226560}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {*Alcoholic Beverages ; *Animal Feed ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Pisum sativum ; *Plant Proteins ; Starch ; }, abstract = {Industrialised agriculture is heavily reliant upon synthetic nitrogen fertilisers and imported protein feeds, posing environmental and food security challenges. Increasing the cultivation of leguminous crops that biologically fix nitrogen and provide high protein feed and food could help to address these challenges. We report on the innovative use of an important leguminous crop, pea (Pisum sativum L.), as a source of starch for alcohol (gin) production, yielding protein-rich animal feed as a co-product. We undertook life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the environmental footprint of 1 L of packaged gin produced from either 1.43 kg of wheat grain or 2.42 kg of peas via fermentation and distillation into neutral spirit. Allocated environmental footprints for pea-gin were smaller than for wheat-gin across 12 of 14 environmental impact categories considered. Global warming, resource depletion, human toxicity, acidification and terrestrial eutrophication footprints were, respectively, 12%, 15%, 15%, 48% and 68% smaller, but direct land occupation was 112% greater, for pea-gin versus wheat-gin. Expansion of LCA boundaries indicated that co-products arising from the production of 1 L of wheat- or pea-gin could substitute up to 0.33 or 0.66 kg soybean animal feed, respectively, mitigating considerable greenhouse gas emissions associated with land clearing, cultivation, processing and transport of such feed. For pea-gin, this mitigation effect exceeds emissions from gin production and packaging, so that each L of bottled pea gin avoids 2.2 kg CO2 eq. There is great potential to scale the use of legume starches in production of alcoholic beverages and biofuels, reducing dependence on Latin American soybean associated with deforestation and offering considerable global mitigation potential in terms of climate change and nutrient leakage - estimated at circa 439 Tg CO2 eq. and 8.45 Tg N eq. annually.}, }
@article {pmid31222177, year = {2019}, author = {Montero, N and Tomillo, PS and Saba, VS and Dei Marcovaldi, MAG and López-Mendilaharsu, M and Santos, AS and Fuentes, MMPB}, title = {Effects of local climate on loggerhead hatchling production in Brazil: Implications from climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {8861}, pmid = {31222177}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Sea turtle eggs are heavily influenced by the environment in which they incubate, including effects on hatching success and hatchling viability (hatchling production). It is crucial to understand how the hatchling production of sea turtles is influenced by local climate and how potential changes in climate may impact future hatchling production. Generalized Additive Models were used to determine the relationship of six climatic variables at different temporal scales on loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) hatchling production at seventeen nesting beaches in Bahia, Espirito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Using extreme and conservative climate change scenarios throughout the 21[st] century, potential impacts on future hatching success (the number of hatched eggs in a nest) were predicted using the climatic variable(s) that best described hatchling production at each nesting beach. Air temperature and precipitation were found to be the main drivers of hatchling production throughout Brazil. CMIP5 climate projections are for a warming of air temperature at all sites throughout the 21[st] century, while projections for precipitation vary regionally. The more tropical nesting beaches in Brazil, such as those in Bahia, are projected to experience declines in hatchling production, while the more temperate nesting beaches, such as those in Rio de Janeiro, are projected to experience increases in hatchling production by the end of the 21[st] century.}, }
@article {pmid31221380, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, H and Huo, S and Yeager, KM and Li, C and Xi, B and Zhang, J and He, Z and Ma, C}, title = {Apparent relationships between anthropogenic factors and climate change indicators and POPs deposition in a lacustrine system.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {83}, number = {}, pages = {174-182}, doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2019.03.024}, pmid = {31221380}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; DDT ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Geologic Sediments ; Hydrocarbons, Chlorinated/analysis ; Lakes ; Polychlorinated Biphenyls/analysis ; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to impact the environmental behaviors and fates of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), however, quantitative studies on these combined factors are scarce. In this study, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDTs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were used as examples to identify how and when those factors may be related to the deposition of POPs in the sediment of Lake Chaohu, China, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Three historical trends of DDT, PAH, and PCB deposition were delineated in a dated sediment core encompassing ~100 years of historical record: a steady state or gradually increasing stage, a rapidly increasing stage, and a declining stage. The GAM results showed that aquatic total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and regional GDP (anthropogenic factors) were dominant contributors to POP accumulation rates in the lake sediment. The fitted relationships between air temperature and sedimentary DDT and PAH concentrations were linear and negative, while a positive linear relationship was found for PCBs, suggesting that Lake Chaohu may have become a net source for DDTs and PAHs, and a sink for PCBs, under a progressively warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid31220731, year = {2019}, author = {Augustynczik, ALD and Yousefpour, R and Hanewinkel, M}, title = {Climate change and the provision of biodiversity in public temperate forests - A mechanism design approach for the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {246}, number = {}, pages = {706-716}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.05.089}, pmid = {31220731}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forests ; Germany ; }, abstract = {The provision of forest biodiversity remains a major challenge in the management of forest resources. Biodiversity is mostly considered a public good and the fact that societal benefits from biodiversity are private information, hinders its supply at adequate levels. Here we investigate how the government, as a forest owner, may increase the biodiversity supply in publicly-owned forests. We employ a mechanism design approach to find the biodiversity provision choices, which take into account agents' strategic behavior and values towards biodiversity. We applied our framework to a forest landscape in Southwestern Germany, using forest birds as biodiversity indicators and evaluating the impacts of climate change on forest dynamics and on the costs of biodiversity provision. Our results show that climate change has important implications to the opportunity cost of biodiversity and the provision levels (ranging from 10 to 12.5% increase of the bird indicator abundance). In general, biodiversity valuations needed to surpass the opportunity cost by more than 18% to cope with the private information held by the agents. Moreover, higher costs under more intense climate change (e.g. Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) reduced the attainable bird abundance increase from 12.5 to 10%. We conclude that mechanism design may provide key information for planning conservation policies and identify conditions for a successful implementation of biodiversity-oriented forest management.}, }
@article {pmid31220712, year = {2019}, author = {Adeloye, AJ and Dau, QV}, title = {Hedging as an adaptive measure for climate change induced water shortage at the Pong reservoir in the Indus Basin Beas River, India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {687}, number = {}, pages = {554-566}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.021}, pmid = {31220712}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigated the adaptive capacity of static and dynamic hedging operating policies to shore up the performance, i.e. reliability and vulnerability, in irrigation water supply of Pong reservoir in India, during climate change. The policies were developed using genetic algorithm optimisation and used to force reservoir simulations for different climate change perturbed inflow series, whence derive the performance. For static hedging, the hedging fraction remains constant throughout the year while for dynamic hedging, this fraction varies monthly or seasonally. Results showed that static hedging was effective at tempering the systems vulnerability from its high of ≥60% to lower than 25%, while maintaining an acceptable volume-based reliability. Further simulations with dynamic hedging provided only modest improvements in these two indices. The significance of this study is its demonstration of the effectiveness of hedging as a climate change adaptation measure by limiting water shortage impacts. It also demonstrates that simple static hedging can match more complex dynamic hedging policies.}, }
@article {pmid31220193, year = {2019}, author = {Kosaka, T and Nakajima, Y and Ishii, A and Yamashita, M and Yoshida, S and Murata, M and Kato, K and Shiromaru, Y and Kato, S and Kanesaki, Y and Yoshikawa, H and Matsutani, M and Thanonkeo, P and Yamada, M}, title = {Correction: Capacity for survival in global warming: Adaptation of mesophiles to the temperature upper limit.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218985}, pmid = {31220193}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215614.].}, }
@article {pmid31220135, year = {2019}, author = {Leopold, CR and Hess, SC}, title = {Facilitating adaptation to climate change while restoring a montane plant community.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218516}, pmid = {31220135}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Altitude ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Endangered Species ; Hawaii ; Magnoliopsida/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Montane plant communities throughout the world have responded to changes in temperature regimes by shifting ranges upward in elevation, and made downslope movements to track shifts in climatic water balance. Organisms that cannot disperse or adapt biologically to projected climate scenarios in situ may decrease in distributional range and abundance over time. Restoration strategies will need to incorporate the habitat suitability of future predicted conditions to ensure long-term persistence. We propagated seedlings of three native Hawaiian montane plant species from high- (~2,500 m asl) and low-elevation (~1,900 m asl) sources, planted them in 8 common plots along a 500 m elevation gradient, and monitored microclimate at each plot for 20 weeks. We explored how temperature and precipitation influenced survival and growth differently among high- and low-elevation origin seedlings. Significantly more seedlings of only one species, Dodonaea viscosa, from high-elevation origin (75.2%) survived than seedlings from low-elevation origin (58.7%) across the entire elevation gradient. Origin also influenced survival in generalized linear mixed models that controlled for temperature, precipitation, and elevation in D. viscosa and Chenopodium oahuense. Survival increased with elevation and soil moisture for Sophora chrysophylla, while it decreased for the other two species. Responses to microclimate varied between the three montane plant species; there were no common patterns of growth or survival. Although limited in temporal scope, our experiment represents one of the few attempts to examine local adaptation to prospective climate scenarios and addresses challenges to restoration efforts within species' current ranges.}, }
@article {pmid31218931, year = {2019}, author = {Abu Qdais, H and Wuensch, C and Dornack, C and Nassour, A}, title = {The role of solid waste composting in mitigating climate change in Jordan.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {37}, number = {8}, pages = {833-842}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X19855424}, pmid = {31218931}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Composting ; Greenhouse Effect ; Jordan ; *Refuse Disposal ; Solid Waste ; }, abstract = {Solid waste composting has never been practised on a full scale in Jordan. However, the National Solid Waste Management Strategy recommended five major composting facilities to be put into operation starting from 2025. According to the Ministry of Environment, the waste sector is contributing to 10.6% of the total greenhouse gas emissions of the country. The main objective of this study was to assess the potential of solid waste composting in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in Jordan. Applying the upstream-operating-downstream account framework and developing a model that estimates the greenhouse gas emissions, it was possible to estimate the emissions associated with composting of source-segregated bio-waste, which was compared with three other scenarios, including business as usual (dumping and landfilling), sanitary landfilling, and anaerobic digestion. The assessment revealed that composting and anaerobic digestion of the total generated source-segregated bio-waste (Scenarios 3 and 4) have the least net greenhouse gas emissions with 1.1 million Mg CO2-eq y[-1], while engineered sanitary landfilling and dumping have net emissions of 2.6 and 3.75 million Mg CO2-eq y[-1], respectively. The findings of this research are paving the way to make informed and responsible decisions in the Jordanian solid waste sector to adopt sustainable and integrated management options.}, }
@article {pmid31217650, year = {2019}, author = {Senapati, N and Brown, HE and Semenov, MA}, title = {Raising genetic yield potential in high productive countries: Designing wheat ideotypes under climate change.}, journal = {Agricultural and forest meteorology}, volume = {271}, number = {}, pages = {33-45}, pmid = {31217650}, issn = {0168-1923}, abstract = {Designing crop ideotype is an important step to raise genetic yield potential in a target environment. In the present study, we designed wheat ideotypes based on the state-of-the-art knowledge in crop physiology to increase genetic yield potential for the 2050-climate, as projected by the HadGEM2 global climate model for the RCP8.5 emission scenario, in two high-wheat-productive countries, viz. the United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand (NZ). Wheat ideotypes were optimized to maximize yield potential for both water-limited (IW2050) and potential (IP2050) conditions by using Sirius model and exploring the full range of cultivar parameters. On average, a 43-51% greater yield potential over the present winter wheat cv. Claire was achieved for IW2050 in the UK and NZ, whereas a 51-62% increase was obtained for IP2050 . Yield benefits due to the potential condition over water-limitation were small in the UK, but 13% in NZ. The yield potentials of wheat were 16% (2.6 t ha[-1]) and 31% (5 t ha[-1]) greater in NZ than in the UK under 2050-climate in water-limited and potential conditions respectively. Modelling predicts the possibility of substantial increase in genetic yield potential of winter wheat under climate change in high productive countries. Wheat ideotypes optimized for future climate could provide plant scientists and breeders with a road map for selection of the target traits and their optimal combinations for wheat improvement and genetic adaptation to raise the yield potential.}, }
@article {pmid31217625, year = {2019}, author = {Van Houtven, G and Phelan, J and Clark, C and Sabo, RD and Buckley, J and Thomas, RQ and Horn, K and LeDuc, SD}, title = {Nitrogen deposition and climate change effects on tree species composition and ecosystem services for a forest cohort.}, journal = {Ecological monographs}, volume = {89}, number = {2}, pages = {e01345}, pmid = {31217625}, issn = {0012-9615}, abstract = {The composition of forests in the northeastern United States and the ecosystem services they provide to future generations will depend on several factors. In this paper, we isolate the effects of two environmental drivers, nitrogen (N) deposition and climate (temperature and precipitation) change, through an analysis of a single cohort of 24 dominant tree species. We assembled a tree database using data from U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis monitoring plots. Applying observed species-specific growth and survival responses, we simulated how forest stands in a 19-state study area would change from 2005 to 2100 under 12 different future N deposition-climate scenarios. We then estimated implications for three selected forest ecosystem services: merchantable timber, aboveground carbon sequestration, and tree diversity. Total tree biomass (for 24 species combined) was positively associated with both increased N deposition and temperatures; however, due to differences in the direction and magnitude of species-specific responses, forest composition varied across scenarios. For example, red maple (Acer rubrum) trees gained biomass under scenarios with more N deposition and more climate change, whereas biomass of yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis) and red pine (Pinus resinosa) was negatively affected. Projections for ecosystem services also varied across scenarios. Carbon sequestration, which is positively associated with biomass accumulation, increased with N deposition and increasing climate change. Total timber values also increased with overall biomass; however, scenarios with increasing climate change tended to favor species with lower merchantable value, whereas more N deposition favored species with higher merchantable value. Tree species diversity was projected to decrease with greater changes in climate (warmer temperatures), especially in the northwestern, central, and southeastern portions of the study area. In contrast, the effects of N deposition on diversity varied greatly in magnitude and direction across the study area. This study highlights species-specific and regional effects of N deposition and climate change in northeastern U.S. forests, which can inform management decision for air quality and forests in the region, as well as climate policy. It also provides a foundation for future studies that may incorporate other important factors such as multiple cohorts, sulfur deposition, insects, and diseases.}, }
@article {pmid31216349, year = {2019}, author = {Akpan, GE and Adepoju, KA and Oladosu, OR}, title = {Potential distribution of dominant malaria vector species in tropical region under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218523}, pmid = {31216349}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Anopheles/pathogenicity/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Forests ; Malaria/*transmission ; Mosquito Vectors/pathogenicity/*physiology ; Nigeria ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Risk assessment regarding the distribution of malaria vectors and environmental variables underpinning their distribution under changing climates is crucial towards malaria control and eradication. On this basis, we used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Model to estimate the potential future distribution of major transmitters of malaria in Nigeria-Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings: Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and Anopheles arabiensis under low and high emissions scenarios. In the model, we used mosquito occurrence data sampled from 1900 to 2010 alongside land use and terrain variables, and bioclimatic variables for baseline climate 1960-1990 and future climates of 2050s (2041-2060) and 2070s (2061-2080) that follow RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Anopheles gambiae species are projected to experience large shift in potential range and population with increased distribution density, higher under high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and 2070s than low emission scenario (RCP2.6) and 2050s. Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and Anopheles arabiensis are projected to have highest invasion with 47-70% and 10-14% percentage increase, respectively in Sahel and Sudan savannas within northern states in 2041-2080 under RCP8.5. Highest prevalence is predicted for Humid forest and Derived savanna in southern and North Central states in 2041-2080; 91-96% and 97-99% for Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and 67-71% and 72-75% for Anopheles arabiensis under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The higher magnitude of change in species prevalence predicted for the later part of the 21st century under high emission scenario, driven mainly by increasing and fluctuating temperature, alongside longer seasonal tropical rainfall accompanied by drier phases and inherent influence of rapid land use change, may lead to more significant increase in malaria burden when compared with other periods and scenarios during the century; especially in Humid forest, Derived savanna, Sahel and Sudan savannas.}, }
@article {pmid31213707, year = {2019}, author = {Cavicchioli, R and Ripple, WJ and Timmis, KN and Azam, F and Bakken, LR and Baylis, M and Behrenfeld, MJ and Boetius, A and Boyd, PW and Classen, AT and Crowther, TW and Danovaro, R and Foreman, CM and Huisman, J and Hutchins, DA and Jansson, JK and Karl, DM and Koskella, B and Mark Welch, DB and Martiny, JBH and Moran, MA and Orphan, VJ and Reay, DS and Remais, JV and Rich, VI and Singh, BK and Stein, LY and Stewart, FJ and Sullivan, MB and van Oppen, MJH and Weaver, SC and Webb, EA and Webster, NS}, title = {Scientists' warning to humanity: microorganisms and climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {17}, number = {9}, pages = {569-586}, pmid = {31213707}, issn = {1740-1534}, support = {MC_PC_15090/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Gases/*metabolism ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Microbial Viability/*radiation effects ; }, abstract = {In the Anthropocene, in which we now live, climate change is impacting most life on Earth. Microorganisms support the existence of all higher trophic life forms. To understand how humans and other life forms on Earth (including those we are yet to discover) can withstand anthropogenic climate change, it is vital to incorporate knowledge of the microbial 'unseen majority'. We must learn not just how microorganisms affect climate change (including production and consumption of greenhouse gases) but also how they will be affected by climate change and other human activities. This Consensus Statement documents the central role and global importance of microorganisms in climate change biology. It also puts humanity on notice that the impact of climate change will depend heavily on responses of microorganisms, which are essential for achieving an environmentally sustainable future.}, }
@article {pmid31213189, year = {2019}, author = {Calatayud, J and Rodríguez, M&#xc1; and Molina-Venegas, R and Leo, M and Horreo, JL and Hortal, J}, title = {Pleistocene climate change and the formation of regional species pools.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1905}, pages = {20190291}, pmid = {31213189}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; Biota ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; Ice Cover ; Phylogeny ; *Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Although the description of bioregions dates back to the origin of biogeography, the processes originating their associated species pools have been seldom studied. Ancient historical events are thought to play a fundamental role in configuring bioregions, but the effects of more recent events on these regional biotas are largely unknown. We used a network approach to identify regional and sub-regional faunas of European Carabus beetles and developed a method to explore the relative contribution of dispersal barriers, niche similarities and phylogenetic history on their configuration. We identify a transition zone matching the limit of the ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum. While southern species pools are mostly separated by dispersal barriers, in the north species are mainly sorted by their environmental niches. Strikingly, most phylogenetic structuration of Carabus faunas occurred during the Pleistocene. Our results show how extreme recent historical events-such as Pleistocene climate cooling, rather than just deep-time evolutionary processes-can profoundly modify the composition and structure of geographical species pools.}, }
@article {pmid31211860, year = {2019}, author = {Wise, DH and Lensing, JR}, title = {Impacts of rainfall extremes predicted by climate-change models on major trophic groups in the leaf litter arthropod community.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {88}, number = {10}, pages = {1486-1497}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.13046}, pmid = {31211860}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Arthropods ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; }, abstract = {Arthropods in the leaf litter layer of forest soils influence ecosystem processes such as decomposition. Climate-change models predict both increases and decreases in average rainfall. Increased drought may have greater impacts on the litter arthropod community. In addition to affecting survival or behaviour of desiccation-sensitive species, lower rainfall may indirectly lower abundances of consumers that graze drought-stressed fungi, with repercussions for higher trophic levels. We tested the hypothesis that trophic structure will differ between the two rainfall scenarios. In particular, we hypothesized that densities of several broadly defined trophic groupings of arthropods would be lower under reduced rainfall. To test this hypothesis, we used sprinklers to impose two rainfall treatments during three growing seasons in roofed, fenced 14-m[2] plots and documented changes in abundance from initial, pre-treatment densities of 39 arthropod taxa. Experimental plots were subjected to either LOW (fortnightly) or HIGH (weekly) average rainfall based upon climate models and the previous 100 years of regional weekly averages. Unroofed open plots, our reference treatment (REF), experienced higher than average rainfall during the experiment. The two rainfall extremes produced clear negative effects of lowered rainfall on major trophic groups. Broad categories of fungivores, detritivores and predators were more abundant in HIGH than LOW plots by the final year. Springtails (Collembola), which graze fungal hyphae, were 3× more abundant in the HIGH rainfall treatment. Taxa of larger-bodied fungivores and detritivores, spiders (Araneae), and non-spider predators were 2× more abundant under HIGH rainfall. Densities of mites (Acari), which include fungivores, detritivores and predators, were 1.5× greater in HIGH rainfall plots. Abundances and community structure of arthropods were similar in REF and experimental plots, showing that effects of rainfall uncovered in the experiment are applicable to nature. This pattern suggests that changes in rainfall will alter bottom-up control processes in a critical detritus-based food web of deciduous forests. Our results, in conjunction with other findings on the impact of desiccation on arthropods and fungal growth, suggest that drier conditions will depress densities of fungal consumers, causing declines in higher trophic levels, with possible impacts on soil processes and the larger forest food web.}, }
@article {pmid31209292, year = {2019}, author = {de Souza, JG and Robinson, M and Maezumi, SY and Capriles, J and Hoggarth, JA and Lombardo, U and Novello, VF and Apaéstegui, J and Whitney, B and Urrego, D and Alves, DT and Rostain, S and Power, MJ and Mayle, FE and da Cruz, FW and Hooghiemstra, H and Iriarte, J}, title = {Climate change and cultural resilience in late pre-Columbian Amazonia.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {1007-1017}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-019-0924-0}, pmid = {31209292}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {Archaeology ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Rainforest ; }, abstract = {The long-term response of ancient societies to climate change has been a matter of global debate. Until recently, the lack of integrative studies using archaeological, palaeoecological and palaeoclimatological data prevented an evaluation of the relationship between climate change, distinct subsistence strategies and cultural transformations across the largest rainforest of the world, Amazonia. Here we review the most relevant cultural changes seen in the archaeological record of six different regions within Greater Amazonia during late pre-Columbian times. We compare the chronology of those cultural transitions with high-resolution regional palaeoclimate proxies, showing that, while some societies faced major reorganization during periods of climate change, others were unaffected and even flourished. We propose that societies with intensive, specialized land-use systems were vulnerable to transient climate change. In contrast, land-use systems that relied primarily on polyculture agroforestry, resulting in the formation of enriched forests and fertile Amazonian dark earth in the long term, were more resilient to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31207282, year = {2019}, author = {Klymasz-Swartz, AK and Allen, GJP and Treberg, JR and Yoon, GR and Tripp, A and Quijada-Rodriguez, AR and Weihrauch, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on the American lobster (Homarus americanus): Physiological responses to combined exposure of elevated temperature and pCO2.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {235}, number = {}, pages = {202-210}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.06.005}, pmid = {31207282}, issn = {1531-4332}, mesh = {Acclimatization/genetics ; Ammonia/chemistry/metabolism ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Larva/growth &amp; development ; Muscles/*metabolism ; Nephropidae/*physiology ; Oxygen Consumption ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The physiological consequences of exposing marine organisms to predicted future ocean scenarios, i.e. simultaneous increase in temperature and pCO2, have only recently begun to be investigated. Adult American lobster (Homarus americanus) were exposed to either current (16 °C, 47 Pa pCO2, pH 8.10) or predicted year 2300 (20 °C, 948 Pa pCO2, pH 7.10) ocean parameters for 14-16 days prior to assessing physiological changes in their hemolymph parameters as well as whole animal ammonia excretion and resting metabolic rate. Acclimation of lobster simultaneously to elevated pCO2 and temperature induced a prolonged respiratory acidosis that was only partially compensated for via accumulation of extracellular HCO3[-] and ammonia. Furthermore, acclimated animals possessed significantly higher ammonia excretion and oxygen consumption rates suggesting that future ocean scenarios may increase basal energetic demands on H. americanus. Enzyme activity related to protein metabolism (glutamine dehydrogenase, alanine aminotransferase, and aspartate aminotransferase) in hepatopancreas and muscle tissue were unaltered in future ocean scenario exposed animals; however, muscular citrate synthase activity was reduced suggesting that, while protein catabolism may be unchanged, the net energetic output of muscle may be compromised in future scenarios. Overall, H. americanus acclimated to ocean conditions predicted for the year 2300 appear to be incapable of fully compensating against climate change-related acid-base challenges and experience an increase in metabolic waste excretion and oxygen consumption. Combining our study with past literature on H. americanus suggests that the whole lifecycle from larvae to adult stages is at risk of severe growth, survival and reproductive consequences due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31203848, year = {2019}, author = {Chala, D and Roos, C and Svenning, JC and Zinner, D}, title = {Species-specific effects of climate change on the distribution of suitable baboon habitats - Ecological niche modeling of current and Last Glacial Maximum conditions.}, journal = {Journal of human evolution}, volume = {132}, number = {}, pages = {215-226}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhevol.2019.05.003}, pmid = {31203848}, issn = {1095-8606}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; *Papio ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Baboons (genus Papio) have been proposed as a possible analogous phylogeographic model for intra-African dispersal of hominins during the Pleistocene. Previous studies of the genus reveal complex evolutionary dynamics including introgressive hybridization and, as for hominins, it has been hypothesized that past climate change has been a major driver in their evolutionary history. However, how historical climate changes affected the distribution and extent of baboon habitats is not clear. We therefore employed three ecological niche modeling algorithms (maximum entropy model: MaxEnt; general additive model: GAM; gradient boosting model: GBM) to map suitable habitat of baboons at both genus and species levels under two extreme late-Quaternary climates: current (warm period) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, cold period). The three model algorithms predicted habitat suitabilities for the baboon species with high accuracy, as indicated by AUC values of 0.83-0.85 at genus level and ≥0.90 for species. The results suggest that climate change from LGM to current affected the distribution and extent of suitable habitats for the genus Papio only slightly (>80% of the habitat remained suitable). However, and in contrast to our expectation for ecological generalists, individual species have been differentially affected. While P. ursinus and P. anubis lost some of their suitable habitats (net loss 25.5% and 13.3% respectively), P. kindae and P. papio gained large portions (net gain >62%), and P. cynocephalus and P. hamadryas smaller portions (net gain >20%). Overlap among the specific realized climate niches remained small, suggesting only slight overlap of suitable habitat among species. Results of our study further suggest that shifts of suitable habitats could have led to isolation and reconnection of populations which most likely affected gene flow among them. The impact of historic climate changes on baboon habitats might have been similar for other savanna living species, such as hominins.}, }
@article {pmid31203758, year = {2019}, author = {Spicer, JI and Morley, SA and Bozinovic, F}, title = {Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1778}, pages = {20190032}, pmid = {31203758}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Eukaryota/*physiology ; Oxygen/analysis/metabolism ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Documenting and explaining global patterns of biodiversity in time and space have fascinated and occupied biologists for centuries. Investigation of the importance of these patterns, and their underpinning mechanisms, has gained renewed vigour and importance, perhaps becoming pre-eminent, as we attempt to predict the biological impacts of global climate change. Understanding the physiological features that determine, or constrain, a species' geographical range and how they respond to a rapidly changing environment is critical. While the ecological patterns are crystallizing, explaining the role of physiology has just begun. The papers in this volume are the primary output from a Satellite Meeting of the Society of Experimental Biology Annual Meeting, held in Florence in July 2018. The involvement of two key environmental factors, temperature and oxygen, was explored through the testing of key hypotheses. The aim of the meeting was to improve our knowledge of large-scale geographical differences in physiology, e.g. metabolism, growth, size and subsequently our understanding of the role and vulnerability of those physiologies to global climate warming. While such an aim is of heuristic interest, in the midst of our current biodiversity crisis, it has an urgency that is difficult to overstate. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.}, }
@article {pmid31203756, year = {2019}, author = {Bennett, S and Duarte, CM and Marbà, N and Wernberg, T}, title = {Integrating within-species variation in thermal physiology into climate change ecology.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1778}, pages = {20180550}, pmid = {31203756}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/classification/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Seawater/chemistry ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Accurately forecasting the response of global biota to warming is a fundamental challenge for ecology in the Anthropocene. Within-species variation in thermal sensitivity, caused by phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation of thermal limits, is often overlooked in assessments of species responses to warming. Despite this, implicit assumptions of thermal niche conservatism or adaptation and plasticity at the species level permeate the literature with potentially important implications for predictions of warming impacts at the population level. Here we review how these attributes interact with the spatial and temporal context of ocean warming to influence the vulnerability of marine organisms. We identify a broad spectrum of thermal sensitivities among marine organisms, particularly in central and cool-edge populations of species distributions. These are characterized by generally low sensitivity in organisms with conserved thermal niches, to high sensitivity for organisms with locally adapted thermal niches. Important differences in thermal sensitivity among marine taxa suggest that warming could adversely affect benthic primary producers sooner than less vulnerable higher trophic groups. Embracing the spatial, temporal and biological context of within-species variation in thermal physiology helps explain observed impacts of ocean warming and can improve forecasts of climate change vulnerability in marine systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.}, }
@article {pmid31203298, year = {2019}, author = {Johnson, RJ and Sánchez-Lozada, LG and Newman, LS and Lanaspa, MA and Diaz, HF and Lemery, J and Rodriguez-Iturbe, B and Tolan, DR and Butler-Dawson, J and Sato, Y and Garcia, G and Hernando, AA and Roncal-Jimenez, CA}, title = {Climate Change and the Kidney.}, journal = {Annals of nutrition &amp; metabolism}, volume = {74 Suppl 3}, number = {}, pages = {38-44}, doi = {10.1159/000500344}, pmid = {31203298}, issn = {1421-9697}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Dehydration ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology/etiology ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/*epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {The worldwide increase in temperature has resulted in a marked increase in heat waves (heat extremes) that carries a markedly increased risk for morbidity and mortality. The kidney has a unique role not only in protecting the host from heat and dehydration but also is an important site of heat-associated disease. Here we review the potential impact of global warming and heat extremes on kidney diseases. High temperatures can result in increased core temperatures, dehydration, and blood hyperosmolality. Heatstroke (both clinical and subclinical whole-body hyperthermia) may have a major role in causing both acute kidney disease, leading to increased risk of acute kidney injury from rhabdomyolysis, or heat-induced inflammatory injury to the kidney. Recurrent heat and dehydration can result in chronic kidney disease (CKD) in animals and theoretically plays a role in epidemics of CKD developing in hot regions of the world where workers are exposed to extreme heat. Heat stress and dehydration also has a role in kidney stone formation, and poor hydration habits may increase the risk for recurrent urinary tract infections. The resultant social and economic consequences include disability and loss of productivity and employment. Given the rise in world temperatures, there is a major need to better understand how heat stress can induce kidney disease, how best to provide adequate hydration, and ways to reduce the negative effects of chronic heat exposure.}, }
@article {pmid31202139, year = {2019}, author = {Balsara, S and Jain, PK and Ramesh, A}, title = {An integrated approach using AHP and DEMATEL for evaluating climate change mitigation strategies of the Indian cement manufacturing industry.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {252}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {863-878}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.05.059}, pmid = {31202139}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Construction Materials/*analysis ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation/*methods ; Greenhouse Gases/*analysis ; India ; Manufacturing Industry ; }, abstract = {Concrete, a cement-based product is the highest manufactured and second highest consumed product after water on earth. Across the world, production of cement is the most energy and emission intensive industry hence, the cement industry is currently under pressure to reduce greenhouse gases emissions (GHGEs). However, reducing the GHGEs of the cement industry especially for developing country like India is not an easy task. Cement manufacturing industry needs to focus on significant climate change mitigation strategies to reduce the GHGEs to sustain its production. This study aims at identifying significant climate change mitigation strategies of the cement manufacturing industry in the context of India. Extant literature review and expert opinion are used to identify climate change mitigation strategies of the cement manufacturing industry. In the present study, a model projects by applying both AHP and DEMATEL techniques to assess the climate change mitigation strategies of the cement industry. The AHP technique help in establishing the priorities of climate change mitigation strategies, while the DEMATEL technique forms the causal relationships among them. Through AHP, the results of this research demonstrate that Fuel emission reduction is on top most priority while the relative importance priority of the main remaining factors is Process emission reduction - Electric energy-related emission - Emission avoidance and reduction - Management mitigation measures. The findings also indicate that the main factors, Process emission reduction, and Fuel emission reduction are categorized in cause group factors, while the remaining factors, Electric energy-related emission, Emission avoidance and reduction and Management mitigation measures are in effect group factors. Present model will help supply chain analysts to develop both short-term and long-term decisive measures for effectively managing and reducing GHGEs.}, }
@article {pmid31202136, year = {2019}, author = {Ma, Y and Liu, L and Schwenke, G and Yang, B}, title = {The global warming potential of straw-return can be reduced by application of straw-decomposing microbial inoculants and biochar in rice-wheat production systems.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {252}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {835-845}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.06.006}, pmid = {31202136}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Agricultural Inoculants/*metabolism ; Agriculture/methods ; Bacteria/classification/*metabolism ; Charcoal/*chemistry ; China ; Fertilizers ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Gases ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Oryza/*metabolism/microbiology ; Soil/chemistry ; Triticum/*metabolism/microbiology ; }, abstract = {Straw-return methods that neither negatively impact yield nor bring environmental risk are ideal patterns. To attain this goal, it is necessary to conduct field observation to evaluate the environmental influence of different straw-return methods. Therefore, we conducted a 2-year field study in 2015-2017 to investigate the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and the changes in topsoil (0-20 cm) organic carbon (SOC) density in a typical Chinese rice-wheat rotation in the Eastern China. These measurements allowed a complete greenhouse gas accounting (net GWP and GHGI) of five treatments including: FP (no straw, plus fertilizer), FS (wheat straw plus fertilizer), FB (straw-derived biochar plus fertilizer), FSDI (wheat straw with straw-decomposing microbial inoculants plus fertilizer) and CK (control: no straw, no fertilizer). Average annual SOC sequestration rates were estimated to be 0.20, 0.97, 1.97 and 1.87 t C ha[-1] yr[-1] (0-20 cm) for the FP, FS, FB and FSDI treatments respectively. Relative to the FP treatment, the FS and FSDI treatments increased CH4 emissions by 12.4 and 17.9% respectively, but decreased N2O emissions by 19.1 and 26.6%. Conversely, the FB treatment decreased CH4 emission by 7.2% and increased N2O emission by 10.9% compared to FP. FB increased grain yield, but FS and FSDI did not. Compared to the net GWP (11.6 t CO2-eq ha[-1] yr[-1]) and GHGI (1.20 kg CO2-eq kg[-1] grain) of FP, the FS, FB and FSDI treatments reduced net GWP by 12.6, 59.9 and 34.6% and GHGI by 10.5, 65.8 and 37.7% respectively. In rice-wheat systems of eastern China, the environmentally beneficial effects of returning wheat straw can be greatly enhanced by application of straw-decomposing microbial inoculants or by applying straw-derived biochar.}, }
@article {pmid31197167, year = {2019}, author = {Debortoli, NS and Clark, DG and Ford, JD and Sayles, JS and Diaconescu, EP}, title = {An integrative climate change vulnerability index for Arctic aviation and marine transportation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2596}, pmid = {31197167}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change vulnerability research methods are often divergent, drawing from siloed biophysical risk approaches or social-contextual frameworks, lacking methods for integrative approaches. This substantial gap has been noted by scientists, policymakers and communities, inhibiting decision-makers' capacity to implement adaptation policies responsive to both physical risks and social sensitivities. Aiming to contribute to the growing literature on integrated vulnerability approaches, we conceptualize and translate new integrative theoretical insights of vulnerability research to a scalable quantitative method. Piloted through a climate change vulnerability index for aviation and marine sectors in the Canadian Arctic, this study demonstrates an avenue of applying vulnerability concepts to assess both biophysical and social components analyzing future changes with linked RCP climate projections. The iterative process we outline is transferable and adaptable across the circumpolar north, as well as other global regions and shows that transportation vulnerability varies across Inuit regions depending on modeled hazards and transportation infrastructures.}, }
@article {pmid31196987, year = {2019}, author = {Kubelka, V and Šálek, M and Tomkovich, P and Végvári, S and Freckleton, RP and Székely, T}, title = {Response to Comment on "Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds".}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {364}, number = {6445}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw9893}, pmid = {31196987}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Nesting Behavior ; Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {Bulla et al dispute our main conclusion that the global pattern of nest predation is disrupted in shorebirds. We disagree with Bulla et al's conclusions and contest the robustness of their outcomes. We reaffirm our results that provide clear evidence that nest predation has increased significantly in shorebirds, especially in the Arctic.}, }
@article {pmid31196986, year = {2019}, author = {Bulla, M and Reneerkens, J and Weiser, EL and Sokolov, A and Taylor, AR and Sittler, B and McCaffery, BJ and Ruthrauff, DR and Catlin, DH and Payer, DC and Ward, DH and Solovyeva, DV and Santos, ESA and Rakhimberdiev, E and Nol, E and Kwon, E and Brown, GS and Hevia, GD and Gates, HR and Johnson, JA and van Gils, JA and Hansen, J and Lamarre, JF and Rausch, J and Conklin, JR and Liebezeit, J and Bêty, J and Lang, J and Alves, JA and Fernández-Elipe, J and Exo, KM and Bollache, L and Bertellotti, M and Giroux, MA and van de Pol, M and Johnson, M and Boldenow, ML and Valcu, M and Soloviev, M and Sokolova, N and Senner, NR and Lecomte, N and Meyer, N and Schmidt, NM and Gilg, O and Smith, PA and Machín, P and McGuire, RL and Cerboncini, RAS and Ottvall, R and van Bemmelen, RSA and Swift, RJ and Saalfeld, ST and Jamieson, SE and Brown, S and Piersma, T and Albrecht, T and D'Amico, V and Lanctot, RB and Kempenaers, B}, title = {Comment on "Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds".}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {364}, number = {6445}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw8529}, pmid = {31196986}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Nesting Behavior ; Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {Kubelka et al (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.}, }
@article {pmid31194805, year = {2019}, author = {Ferreira, MT and Cardoso, P and Borges, PAV and Gabriel, R and de Azevedo, EB and Elias, RB}, title = {Implications of climate change to the design of protected areas: The case study of small islands (Azores).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218168}, pmid = {31194805}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Climate change is causing shifts in species distributions worldwide. Understanding how species distributions will change with future climate change is thus critical for conservation planning. Impacts on oceanic islands are potentially major given the disproportionate number of endemic species and the consequent risk that local extinctions might become global ones. In this study, we use species climate envelope models to evaluate the current and future potential distributions of Azorean endemic species of bryophytes, vascular plants, and arthropods on the Islands of Terceira and São Miguel in the Azores archipelago (Macaronesia). We examined projections of climate change effects on the future distributions of species with particular focus on the current protected areas. We then used spatial planning optimization software (PRION) to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas at preserving species both in the present and future. We found that contractions of species distributions in protected areas are more likely in the largest and most populated island of São Miguel, moving from the coastal areas towards inland where the current protected areas are insufficient and inadequate to tackle species distribution shifts. There will be the need for a revision of the current protected areas in São Miguel to allow the sustainable conservation of most species, while in Terceira Island the current protected areas appear to be sufficient. Our study demonstrates the importance of these tools for informing long-term climate change adaptation planning for small islands.}, }
@article {pmid31194783, year = {2019}, author = {de Luis, M and Álvarez-Jiménez, J and Martínez Labarga, JM and Bartolomé, C}, title = {Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. López (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0218160}, pmid = {31194783}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Caryophyllaceae/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Principal Component Analysis ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Climate change has altered the global distribution of many species. Accordingly, we have assessed here the potential shift in the distribution of Gypsophila bermejoi G. López under distinct scenarios of future climate change, this being a species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. For strict gypsophiles, climatic changes affecting their potential area of distribution could be critical if the new range is not overlapped with suitable soils. Thus, the narrow bioclimatic niche and the endemic nature of this plant could make this species particularly vulnerable to climate change. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method to study the potential distribution of this taxon under four different scenarios of climate change, pin-pointing relevant changes in the potential distribution of this plant and enabling possible future areas of refuge to be assessed. Such scenarios are defined according to four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [, which represent different trends in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As a result, we predict notable changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi, and the overlap between soil and bioclimatic suitability would be affected. We also used a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to model the bioclimatic niche of this species, comparing it with that of its parental taxa. The evolution of bioclimatic suitability was assessed at the current locations of G. bermejoi and as this plant is a strict gypsophile, we generated suitability maps for sites with gypsum soils. Ultimately, this study identifies relevant changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi under specific climatic scenarios, observing remarkable differences in the outcomes of the different climate change scenarios. Interestingly, in some scenarios the bioclimatic suitability of G. bermejoi will be enhanced at many locations and even in the worst scenario some possible refuge areas were identified. G. bermejoi behaves more like a hardy survivor than as early victim.}, }
@article {pmid31194596, year = {2019}, author = {Cartwright, E}, title = {The Medical Anthropology of Climate Change: Eco-Risks and the Body Environmental.}, journal = {Medical anthropology}, volume = {38}, number = {5}, pages = {436-439}, doi = {10.1080/01459740.2019.1621866}, pmid = {31194596}, issn = {1545-5882}, mesh = {*Anthropology, Medical ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; Politics ; Risk ; }, abstract = {Anthropological research can provide the time depth needed for a rich understanding of the health effects of atmospheric and ocean warming, shifting weather patterns, and the breakdown of biological and social systems large and small. Medical anthropologists are poised to document the human costs of floods, fires, droughts and other catastrophic events, as well as the slowly shifting supplies of fresh water, clean air, and adequate food. Our anthropological eyes on the ground are needed for contextual, local, and critical understandings of how human lifestyles of the twenty-first century are creating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31193440, year = {2019}, author = {Hiscock, R and Asikainen, A and Tuomisto, J and Jantunen, M and Pärjälä, E and Sabel, CE}, title = {Corrigendum to "City scale climate change policies: Do they matter for wellbeing?" [Prev. Med. Rep. 6 (2017) 265-270].}, journal = {Preventive medicine reports}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {100842}, doi = {10.1016/j.pmedr.2019.100842}, pmid = {31193440}, issn = {2211-3355}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2017.03.019.].}, }
@article {pmid31192421, year = {2019}, author = {Hammarstrand, S and Fritzell, V}, title = {[Healthcare plays a key role in adapting to the health effects of climate change].}, journal = {Lakartidningen}, volume = {116}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {31192421}, issn = {1652-7518}, mesh = {Aged ; Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Health Planning ; Humans ; Infant ; Preventive Health Services ; Sustainable Development ; Sweden ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change will affect society in many areas, including healthcare.This article aims to explain the health aspects of climate change and how healthcare can play an important role. Rising temperatures affect health through direct effects such as increased heat (especially in tropical countries) and through indirect effects such as deteriorating air quality and changing panorama of infectious diseases. Particularly vulnerable to the effects are small children, elderly and those with severe chronic diseases. In the pursuit of a health care that can resist these effects, action plans based on simple measures that focus on vulnerable groups have been shown to greatly reduce the health impact. Healthcare also has an important role in the work on climate adaptation in Sweden by providing expertise in societal planning and preventive health work. Finally, knowledge among healthcare professionals and students about the health impact of climate change needs to be continuously updated.}, }
@article {pmid31189933, year = {2019}, author = {Lourenço-de-Moraes, R and Lansac-Toha, FM and Schwind, LTF and Arrieira, RL and Rosa, RR and Terribile, LC and Lemes, P and Fernando Rangel, T and Diniz-Filho, JAF and Bastos, RP and Bailly, D}, title = {Climate change will decrease the range size of snake species under negligible protection in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {8523}, pmid = {31189933}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Models, Biological ; Snakes/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Reptiles are highly susceptible to climate change, responding negatively to thermal and rainfall alterations mainly in relation to their reproductive processes. Based on that, we evaluated the effects of climate change on climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of snakes in the Atlantic Forest hotspot, considering the responses of distinct reproductive groups (oviparous and viviparous). We assessed the species richness and turnover patterns affected by climate change and projected the threat status of each snake species at the end of the century. We also evaluated the effectiveness of the protected areas in safeguarding the species by estimating the mean percentage overlap between snake species distribution and protected areas (PAs) network and by assessing whether such areas will gain or lose species under climate change. Our results showed greater species richness in the eastern-central portion of the Atlantic Forest at present. In general, we evidenced a drastic range contraction of the snake species under climate change. Temporal turnover tends to be high in the western and north-eastern edges of the biome, particularly for oviparous species. Our predictions indicate that 73.6% of oviparous species and 67.6% of viviparous species could lose at least half of their original range by 2080. We also found that existing protected areas of the Atlantic Forest Hotspot have a very limited capacity to safeguard snakes at the current time, maintaining the precarious protection in the future, with the majority of them predicted to lose species at the end of this century. Although oviparous and viviparous snakes have been designated to be dramatically impacted, our study suggests a greater fragility of the former in the face of climate change. We advocated that the creation of new protected areas and/or the redesign of the existing network to harbour regions that maximize the snake species occupancy in the face of future warming scenarios are crucial measures for the conservation of this group.}, }
@article {pmid31189777, year = {2019}, author = {Horie, T}, title = {Global warming and rice production in Asia: Modeling, impact prediction and adaptation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and biological sciences}, volume = {95}, number = {6}, pages = {211-245}, pmid = {31189777}, issn = {1349-2896}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Asia ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Statistical ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Since the projection of global warming emerged in 1980s with the potential of laying enormous impacts on agriculture and food security of the world, we have conducted experimental and modeling studies for clarifying its effects on rice production in Asia and for developing adaptive rice production technologies. On the basis of measurement of rice responses to climate and carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), the dynamic process model named SIMRIW was developed to predict global warming effects on irrigated rice. The model predicted differential regional effects of the projected global warming by doubling [CO2] on the rice yield over Asia, and indicated that high tolerance to heat-induced spikelet sterility and high yield potential under elevated [CO2] are the two important characteristics required for rice genotypes adaptive to global warming environment. Further, genetic traits associated with these characteristics and their genetic resources for breeding adaptive genotypes were identified from diverse rice germplasms. This article reviews our initiative studies in the light of the recent studies, and points out further research that is needed for better understanding and overcoming of this unprecedentedly large problem.}, }
@article {pmid31188822, year = {2019}, author = {Nogeire-McRae, T and Lawler, JJ and Schumaker, NH and Cypher, BL and Phillips, SE}, title = {Land use change and rodenticide exposure trump climate change as the biggest stressors to San Joaquin kit fox.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {e0214297}, pmid = {31188822}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Foxes ; Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; *Rodenticides ; *Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Animal and plant species often face multiple threats simultaneously. We explored the relative impact of three major threats on populations of the endangered San Joaquin kit fox. This species was once widely distributed across the southern San Joaquin Valley, California, USA, but agriculture and urban development have replaced much of its natural habitat. We modeled impacts of climate change, land-use change, and rodenticide exposure on kit fox populations using a spatially explicit, individual-based population model from 2000 to 2050 for the Central Valley, California. Our study indicates that land-use change will likely have the largest impact on kit fox populations. Land development has the potential to decrease populations by approximately 15% under a compact growth scenario in which projected population increases are accommodated within existing urban areas, and 17% under a business-as-usual scenario in which future population growth increases the developed area around urban centers. Plausible scenarios for exposure to pesticides suggest a reduction in kit fox populations by approximately 13%. By contrast, climate change has the potential to ameliorate some of these impacts. Climate-change induced vegetation shifts have the potential to increase total available kit fox habitat and could drive population increases of up to 7%. These vegetation shifts could also reduce movement barriers and create opportunities for hybridization between the endangered San Joaquin kit fox and the more widely distributed desert kit fox, found in the Mojave Desert. In contrast to these beneficial impacts, increasing climate extremes raise the probability of the kit fox population dropping below critical levels. Taken together, these results paint a complex picture of how an at-risk species is likely to respond to multiple threats.}, }
@article {pmid31186360, year = {2019}, author = {Lotze, HK and Tittensor, DP and Bryndum-Buchholz, A and Eddy, TD and Cheung, WWL and Galbraith, ED and Barange, M and Barrier, N and Bianchi, D and Blanchard, JL and Bopp, L and Büchner, M and Bulman, CM and Carozza, DA and Christensen, V and Coll, M and Dunne, JP and Fulton, EA and Jennings, S and Jones, MC and Mackinson, S and Maury, O and Niiranen, S and Oliveros-Ramos, R and Roy, T and Fernandes, JA and Schewe, J and Shin, YJ and Silva, TAM and Steenbeek, J and Stock, CA and Verley, P and Volkholz, J and Walker, ND and Worm, B}, title = {Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {26}, pages = {12907-12912}, pmid = {31186360}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/physiology ; *Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Fisheries/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fishes/physiology ; Food Chain ; Models, Theoretical ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.}, }
@article {pmid31182713, year = {2019}, author = {Kiat, Y and Vortman, Y and Sapir, N}, title = {Feather moult and bird appearance are correlated with global warming over the last 200 years.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2540}, pmid = {31182713}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Feathers/anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Male ; Molting/*physiology ; Passeriformes/anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Sex Characteristics ; }, abstract = {Global warming alters various avian phenological processes, including advanced reproduction and migration schedules. In birds, individual appearance is largely determined by plumage, influencing, for example, bird attractiveness, social status and camouflage. Juveniles of most passerine species replace their nest-grown plumage during the first months of life, a process that is called post-juvenile feather moult. Using data from ten natural history collections, we show that the extent of the post-juvenile moult has increased significantly over the last 212 years (1805-2016), a trend that is positively correlated with the temperature of the environment. Therefore, it seems that birds replaced more feathers under warmer conditions, causing juveniles to appear more similar to adult birds. Moreover, in several species, we describe a male-female switch in the extent of moult, with females currently replacing more feathers than males compared to the past. These results demonstrate different biological responses to climate warming by different phenotypes.}, }
@article {pmid31182543, year = {2019}, author = {Emerick, K and Ronald, PC}, title = {Sub1 Rice: Engineering Rice for Climate Change.}, journal = {Cold Spring Harbor perspectives in biology}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {31182543}, issn = {1943-0264}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Agriculture ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; Genes, Plant ; Oryza/*genetics/physiology ; *Plants, Genetically Modified ; }, abstract = {By the year 2100, the number of people on Earth is expected to increase by ∼50%, placing increasing demands on food production in a time when a changing climate is predicted to compromise crop yields. Feeding this future world requires scientifically informed innovations in agriculture. Here, we describe how a rice gene conferring tolerance to prolonged submergence has helped farmers in South and Southeast Asia mitigate rice crop failure during floods. We discuss how planting of this new variety benefited socially disadvantaged groups. This example indicates that investment in agricultural improvement can protect farmers from risks associated with a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid31179548, year = {2019}, author = {Celedon, JM and Bohlmann, J}, title = {Oleoresin defenses in conifers: chemical diversity, terpene synthases and limitations of oleoresin defense under climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {224}, number = {4}, pages = {1444-1463}, doi = {10.1111/nph.15984}, pmid = {31179548}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Alkyl and Aryl Transferases/genetics/*metabolism ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Coleoptera ; Cytochrome P-450 Enzyme System/metabolism ; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; *Herbivory ; Phylogeny ; Plant Extracts/chemistry/*metabolism ; Terpenes/metabolism ; Tracheophyta/*chemistry/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Conifers have evolved complex oleoresin terpene defenses against herbivores and pathogens. In co-evolved bark beetles, conifer terpenes also serve chemo-ecological functions as pheromone precursors, chemical barcodes for host identification, or nutrients for insect-associated microbiomes. We highlight the genomic, molecular and biochemical underpinnings of the large chemical space of conifer oleoresin terpenes and volatiles. Conifer terpenes are predominantly the products of the conifer terpene synthase (TPS) gene family. Terpene diversity is increased by cytochromes P450 of the CYP720B class. Many conifer TPS are multiproduct enzymes. Multisubstrate CYP720B enzymes catalyse multistep oxidations. We summarise known terpenoid gene functions in various different conifer species with reference to the annotated terpenoid gene space in a spruce genome. Overall, biosynthesis of terpene diversity in conifers is achieved through a system of biochemical radiation and metabolic grids. Expression of TPS and CYP720B genes can be specific to individual cell types of constitutive or traumatic resin duct systems. Induced terpenoid transcriptomes in resin duct cells lead to dynamic changes of terpene composition and quantity to fend off herbivores and pathogens. While terpenoid defenses have contributed much to the evolutionary success of conifers, under new conditions of climate change, these defences may become inconsequential against range-expanding forest pests.}, }
@article {pmid31179195, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, M and Liu, Z and van Dijk, MP}, title = {Measuring urban vulnerability to climate change using an integrated approach, assessing climate risks in Beijing.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e7018}, pmid = {31179195}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {This study is responding to the recommendation made by IPCC's fifth Assessment Report on establishing a standard for measuring and reporting climate risk and vulnerability. It exemplifies the assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change by an integrated approach. The results indicate that Beijing is highly exposed to multiple climate threats in the context of global climate change, specifically urban heat waves, urban drainage floods and drought. Vulnerabilities to the climatic threats of heat waves, drainage floods and droughts have increased by 5%-15% during the period of 2008-2016 in Beijing. High vulnerabilities to both heat waves and drainage floods have been observed in the urban downtown area and high vulnerability to droughts have been observed in the outskirts. This vulnerability assessment, which addressed climatic threats, provides a holistic understanding of the susceptibility to climate change that could facilitate adaptation to climate change in the future. The developments of threats like flooding, heat waves and droughts are analyzed separately for 16 districts and an integrated vulnerability index for all of Beijing is provided as well.}, }
@article {pmid31176879, year = {2019}, author = {Rotundo, JL and Tang, T and Messina, CD}, title = {Response of maize photosynthesis to high temperature: Implications for modeling the impact of global warming.}, journal = {Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB}, volume = {141}, number = {}, pages = {202-205}, doi = {10.1016/j.plaphy.2019.05.035}, pmid = {31176879}, issn = {1873-2690}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Computer Simulation ; *Global Warming ; *Hot Temperature ; Likelihood Functions ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; *Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Ribulose-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/metabolism ; Seeds/physiology ; Zea mays/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Negative impacts of increased temperature on maize yield are anticipated using simulation models. However, some temperature functions are parameterized with partial information. There is limited information on photosynthesis response to high temperature in modern maize hybrids. Improved photosynthesis-temperature functions are key for realistic yield simulations. Our experiment was aimed at building a functional relationship between photosynthesis and air temperature exploring temperature ranges relevant for global warming simulations. Maize hybrids from cold, temperate, and subtropical regions were included in the study to assess genetic adaptation. Results showed a trilinear response to temperature with an optimum of 40 °C. No genetic adaptation was observed among the diverse set of hybrids evaluated. Results contrast with common temperature-limiting functions indicating a decline in carbon assimilation above 30-33 °C. Our results suggest possible overestimations of negative impacts of global warming on maize yield due to the use of inadequate response functions relating carbon assimilation to temperature.}, }
@article {pmid31176768, year = {2019}, author = {Nadermann, N and Seward, RK and Volkoff, H}, title = {Effects of potential climate change -induced environmental modifications on food intake and the expression of appetite regulators in goldfish.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {235}, number = {}, pages = {138-147}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.06.001}, pmid = {31176768}, issn = {1531-4332}, mesh = {Animals ; Appetite/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; Eating/genetics/physiology ; Gene Expression Regulation/genetics ; Goldfish/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate changes due to global warming result in part from the release of gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane into the atmosphere and results in warming and acidification of water bodies, and changes precipitation and wind patterns, which might in turn affect water currents, turbulence and turbidity. These changes might affect feeding and its endocrine control. Feeding is regulated by central and peripheral hormones that either stimulate (e.g. orexin, ghrelin) or inhibit (e.g. irisin, cocaine and amphetamine regulated transcript - CART, cholecystokinin - CCK and peptide YY -PYY) food intake. In this study we examined the effects of four climate change-related environmental factors (i.e. temperature, pH, turbulence and turbidity) on food intake and the hypothalamic and intestinal expressions of appetite regulators in fish, using goldfish as a model. High temperatures increased food intake and the brain expression of orexin, and decrease brain CART 1 and intestinal CCK, PYY and ghrelin. Low pHs decreased feeding and increased the expressions of CART1 and CART2 in the hypothalamus and CCK and PYY in the intestine. Turbulence (waves) induced an increase in food intake and a decrease in mRNA expression levels of both CART1 and CART2 in the hypothalamus and both CCK and PYY in the intestine. Turbidity (low visibility) did not affect food intake but increased locomotion and the time taken to reach satiation, while increasing brain orexin and intestinal PYY expression levels and lowering CART1 hypothalamic expression. The results of this study suggest that environmental stress affects feeding physiology of goldfish and bring new insights on how fish might respond to climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid31176230, year = {2019}, author = {Burley, H and Beaumont, LJ and Ossola, A and Baumgartner, JB and Gallagher, R and Laffan, S and Esperon-Rodriguez, M and Manea, A and Leishman, MR}, title = {Substantial declines in urban tree habitat predicted under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {685}, number = {}, pages = {451-462}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.287}, pmid = {31176230}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Australia ; Cities/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Globally, local governments are increasing investment in urban greening projects. However, there is little consideration of whether the species being planted will be resilient to climate change. We assessed the distribution of climatically suitable habitat, now and in the future, for 176 tree species native to Australia, commonly planted across Australia's Significant Urban Areas (SUAs) and currently grown by commercial nurseries. Species' occurrence records were obtained from inventories and herbaria, globally and across Australia, and combined with baseline climate data (WorldClim, 1960-1990) and six climate scenarios for 2030 and 2070 using climatic suitability models (CSMs). CSMs for each species were calibrated and projected onto baseline and future scenarios. We calculated changes in the size of climatically suitable habitat for each species across each SUA, and identified urban areas that are likely to have suitable climate for either fewer or more of our study species under future climate. By 2070, climatically suitable habitat in SUAs is predicted to decline for 73% of species assessed. For 18% of these species, climatically suitable area is predicted to be more than halved, relative to their baseline extent. Generally, for urban areas in cooler regions, climatically suitable habitat is predicted to increase. By contrast, for urban areas in warmer regions, a greater proportion of tree species may lose climatically suitable habitat. Our results highlight changing patterns of urban climatic space for commonly planted species, suggesting that local governments and the horticultural industry should take a proactive approach to identify new climate-ready species for urban plantings.}, }
@article {pmid31175008, year = {2019}, author = {Robert, MA and Christofferson, RC and Weber, PD and Wearing, HJ}, title = {Temperature impacts on dengue emergence in the United States: Investigating the role of seasonality and climate change.}, journal = {Epidemics}, volume = {28}, number = {}, pages = {100344}, pmid = {31175008}, issn = {1878-0067}, support = {R01 GM122077/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; U01 GM097661/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Aedes ; Animals ; Cities ; Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology ; Dengue Virus ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Mosquito Vectors ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; United States ; }, abstract = {Tropical mosquito-borne viruses have been expanding into more temperate regions in recent decades. This is partly due to the coupled effects of temperature on mosquito life history traits and viral infection dynamics and warming surface temperatures, resulting in more suitable conditions for vectors and virus transmission. In this study, we use a deterministic ordinary differential equations model to investigate how seasonal and diurnal temperature fluctuations affect the potential for dengue transmission in six U.S. cities. We specifically consider temperature-dependent mosquito larval development, adult mosquito mortality, and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. We show that the ability of introductions to lead to outbreaks depends upon the relationship between a city's temperature profile and the time of year at which the initial case is introduced. We also investigate how the potential for outbreaks changes with predicted future increases in mean temperatures due to climate change. We find that climate change will likely lead to increases in suitability for dengue transmission and will increase the periods of the year in which introductions may lead to outbreaks, particularly in cities that typically have mild winters and warm summers, such as New Orleans, Louisiana, and El Paso, Texas. We discuss our results in the context of temperature heterogeneity within and across cities and how these differences may impact the potential for dengue emergence given present day and predicted future temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid31174110, year = {2019}, author = {Ishida, K and Ohara, N and Ercan, A and Jang, S and Trinh, T and Kavvas, ML and Carr, K and Anderson, ML}, title = {Impacts of climate change on snow accumulation and melting processes over mountainous regions in Northern California during the 21st century.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {685}, number = {}, pages = {104-115}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.255}, pmid = {31174110}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {A point-location-based analysis of future climate change impacts on snow accumulation and melting processes was conducted over three study watersheds in Northern California during a 90-year future period by means of snow regime projections. The snow regime projections were obtained by means of a physically-based snow model with dynamically downscaled future climate projections. Then, atmospheric and snow-related variables, and their interrelations during the 21st century were investigated to reveal future climate change impacts on snow accumulation and melting processes. The analysis shows large reductions in snow water equivalent (SWE), snowfall to precipitation (S/P) ratio, and snowmelt through the 21st century. Timing of the peak of the SWE and snowmelt will also change in the future. Meanwhile, the analysis in this study shows that air temperature rise will affect, but will not dominate the future change in snowmelt over the study watersheds. This result implies the importance of considering atmospheric variables other than air temperature, such as precipitation, shortwave radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed even if these variables will not clearly change during the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid31173048, year = {2019}, author = {De Paula Baer, A and Sestili, C and Cocchiara, RA and Barbato, D and Del Cimmuto, A and La Torre, G}, title = {Perception of Climate Change: validation of a questionnaire in Italy.}, journal = {La Clinica terapeutica}, volume = {170}, number = {3}, pages = {e184-e191}, doi = {10.7417/CT.2019.2131}, pmid = {31173048}, issn = {1972-6007}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Italy ; Male ; Perception ; Reproducibility of Results ; Students/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate Change (CC) is a worldwide concern with important consequences for Public Health. A more sustainable and responsible way of living is necessary in order to reduce CC consequences, and adequation to this is directly related to risk perception and knowledge about the phenomenon. The aim of this study was to validate a questionnaire to measure the knowledge of Italians on CC and its consequences.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: The questionnaire was administered online to high school students, their parents and teachers that were participating to a meeting at Sapienza University. The questionnaire contained a sociodemographic section and 19 questions on causes and consequences of CC and ways to fight it. The statistical analysis was performed with Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixty-four individuals answered the online questionnaire. The analysis of internal consistency was performed by 12 dichotomous variables that measured the knowledge level on CC. The analysis showed a standardized Cronbach's alpha equal to 0.39, corresponding to a low reliability. When females were excluded, the alpha value rose to 0.497, and ascended to the reliable value of 0.639 when refining the selection of the included questions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The Cronbach's alpha value found showed a low reliability but achieves acceptable levels when considering only males and excluding some of the initial questions. Future studies should be performed in order to highlight the reliability of this tool to assess the knowledge about CC among the population.}, }
@article {pmid31171511, year = {2019}, author = {Dyer, O}, title = {Climate change: swift action is needed to prevent millions of premature deaths, report warns.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {365}, number = {}, pages = {l4104}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l4104}, pmid = {31171511}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid31170149, year = {2019}, author = {Bury, TM and Bauch, CT and Anand, M}, title = {Charting pathways to climate change mitigation in a coupled socio-climate model.}, journal = {PLoS computational biology}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {e1007000}, pmid = {31170149}, issn = {1553-7358}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Computational Biology ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Social Change ; }, abstract = {Geophysical models of climate change are becoming increasingly sophisticated, yet less effort is devoted to modelling the human systems causing climate change and how the two systems are coupled. Here, we develop a simple socio-climate model by coupling an Earth system model to a social dynamics model. We treat social processes endogenously-emerging from rules governing how individuals learn socially and how social norms develop-as well as being influenced by climate change and mitigation costs. Our goal is to gain qualitative insights into scenarios of potential socio-climate dynamics and to illustrate how such models can generate new research questions. We find that the social learning rate is strongly influential, to the point that variation of its value within empirically plausible ranges changes the peak global temperature anomaly by more than 1°C. Conversely, social norms reinforce majority behaviour and therefore may not provide help when we most need it because they suppress the early spread of mitigative behaviour. Finally, exploring the model's parameter space for mitigation cost and social learning suggests optimal intervention pathways for climate change mitigation. We find that prioritising an increase in social learning as a first step, followed by a reduction in mitigation costs provides the most efficient route to a reduced peak temperature anomaly. We conclude that socio-climate models should be included in the ensemble of models used to project climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31168619, year = {2019}, author = {DuRant, SE and Willson, JD and Carroll, RB}, title = {Parental Effects and Climate Change: Will Avian Incubation Behavior Shield Embryos from Increasing Environmental Temperatures?.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {59}, number = {4}, pages = {1068-1080}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icz083}, pmid = {31168619}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Colinus/physiology ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Nesting Behavior/*physiology ; Quail/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {A major driver of wildlife responses to climate change will include non-genomic effects, like those mediated through parental behavior and physiology (i.e., parental effects). Parental effects can influence lifetime reproductive success and survival, and thus population-level processes. However, the extent to which parental effects will contribute to population persistence or declines in response to climate change is not well understood. These effects may be substantial for species that exhibit extensive parental care behaviors, like birds. Environmental temperature is important in shaping avian incubation behavior, and these factors interact to determine the thermal conditions embryos are exposed to during development, and subsequently avian phenotypes and secondary sex ratios. In this article, we argue that incubation behavior may be an important mediator of avian responses to climate change, we compare incubation strategies of two species adapted to different thermal environments nesting in extreme heat, and we present a simple model that estimates changes in egg temperature based on these incubation patterns and predicted increases in maximum daily air temperature. We demonstrate that the predicted increase in air temperature by 2100 in the central USA will increase temperatures that eggs experience during afternoon off-bouts and the proportion of nests exposed to lethal temperatures. To better understand how species and local adaptations and behavioral-plasticity of incubation behavior will contribute to population responses to climate change comparisons are needed across more avian populations, species, and thermal landscapes.}, }
@article {pmid31168110, year = {2019}, author = {Moon, IJ and Kim, SH and Chan, JCL}, title = {Climate change and tropical cyclone trend.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {570}, number = {7759}, pages = {E3-E5}, pmid = {31168110}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31165645, year = {2019}, author = {Adedze, M and Osei-Yeboah, R}, title = {Underuse of modern contraception in sub-Saharan Africa: are there implications for sustainable development and climate change? A review of the literature.}, journal = {The European journal of contraception &amp; reproductive health care : the official journal of the European Society of Contraception}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {314-318}, doi = {10.1080/13625187.2019.1618448}, pmid = {31165645}, issn = {1473-0782}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; Climate Change ; Contraception/*psychology ; Contraception Behavior/ethnology/*psychology ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Services Misuse ; Humans ; Religion ; Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {Objectives: The aim of this study was to review the recent literature regarding the underuse of modern contraception in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and examine the link with poverty, conflict, sustainable development and climate change. Methods: Data were examined in the PubMed, Hindawi and Science Direct databases. Selected studies were primary research published in the last 10 years relating to modern contraceptive use in SSA. Results: Six common themes contributing to modern contraceptive underuse in SSA emerged: conflicts and security, religious and cultural restrictions, partner consent and support, misconceptions and lack of education, health system barriers and the socioeconomic benefits of having a larger family. Conclusions: The identified barriers to modern contraceptive use in SSA are preventable. It is imperative to ensure that adequate, sustainable measures are implemented to increase the uptake of modern contraception in SSA.}, }
@article {pmid31162076, year = {2019}, author = {Watts, N and Gong, P and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Costello, A and Robinson, E}, title = {Health and climate change - Authors' reply.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10187}, pages = {2197-2198}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31134-1}, pmid = {31162076}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid31162074, year = {2019}, author = {Florin, TH and Allen, DW}, title = {Health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10187}, pages = {2196-2197}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30303-4}, pmid = {31162074}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid31162068, year = {2019}, author = {Gupta, V and Mokdad, A and Bollyky, T and Glassman, A and Daschle, TA}, title = {Leveraging climate change to improve global tobacco control.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10187}, pages = {2182-2183}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30705-6}, pmid = {31162068}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Smoking Prevention ; *Tobacco Products/adverse effects/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid31160627, year = {2019}, author = {Gallagher, RV and Allen, S and Wright, IJ}, title = {Safety margins and adaptive capacity of vegetation to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {8241}, pmid = {31160627}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Plants/*metabolism ; Risk ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Vegetation is composed of many individual species whose climatic tolerances can be integrated into spatial analyses of climate change risk. Here, we quantify climate change risk to vegetation at a continental scale by calculating the safety margins for warming and drying (i.e., tolerance to projected change in temperature and precipitation respectively) across plants sharing 100 km × 100 km grid cells (locations). These safety margins measure how much warmer, or drier, a location could become before its 'typical' species exceeds its observed climatic limit. We also analyse the potential adaptive capacity of vegetation to temperature and precipitation change (i.e., likelihood of in situ persistence) using median precipitation and temperature breadth across all species in each location. 47% of vegetation across Australia is potentially at risk from increases in mean annual temperature (MAT) by 2070, with tropical regions most vulnerable. Vegetation at high risk from climate change often also exhibited low adaptive capacity. By contrast, 2% of the continent is at risk from reductions in annual precipitation by 2070. Risk from precipitation change was isolated to the southwest of Western Australia where both the safety margin for drier conditions in the typical species is low, and substantial reductions in MAP are projected.}, }
@article {pmid31160586, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, X and Xiao, J and Li, X and Cheng, G and Ma, M and Zhu, G and Altaf Arain, M and Andrew Black, T and Jassal, RS}, title = {No trends in spring and autumn phenology during the global warming hiatus.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2389}, pmid = {31160586}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {41771466//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/International ; 91425303//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/International ; NNX14AJ18G//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/International ; NNX16AG61G//National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/International ; EF-1638688//National Science Foundation (NSF)/International ; }, abstract = {Phenology plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis, evapotranspiration, and surface energy fluxes and is sensitive to climate change. The global mean surface air temperature data indicate a global warming hiatus between 1998 and 2012, while its impacts on global phenology remains unclear. Here we use long-term satellite and FLUXNET records to examine phenology trends in the northern hemisphere before and during the warming hiatus. Our results based on the satellite record show that the phenology change rate slowed down during the warming hiatus. The analysis of the long-term FLUXNET measurements, mainly within the warming hiatus, shows that there were no widespread advancing (or delaying) trends in spring (or autumn) phenology. The lack of widespread phenology trends partly led to the lack of widespread trends in spring and autumn carbon fluxes. Our findings have significant implications for understanding the responses of phenology to climate change and the climate-carbon feedbacks.}, }
@article {pmid31160333, year = {2019}, author = {Wight, J and Middleton, J}, title = {Climate change: the greatest public health threat of the century.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {365}, number = {}, pages = {l2371}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l2371}, pmid = {31160333}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid31160324, year = {2019}, author = {Shin, GY}, title = {Climate change: overpopulation is the elephant in the room.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {365}, number = {}, pages = {l2373}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l2373}, pmid = {31160324}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Population Density ; }, }
@article {pmid31160114, year = {2020}, author = {Coselli, JS}, title = {Commentary: Despite global warming, frozen has its place.}, journal = {The Journal of thoracic and cardiovascular surgery}, volume = {159}, number = {4}, pages = {1212-1213}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtcvs.2019.04.049}, pmid = {31160114}, issn = {1097-685X}, mesh = {Aorta, Thoracic ; *Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation ; *Global Warming ; }, }
@article {pmid31158686, year = {2019}, author = {Dittrich, R and Butler, A and Ball, T and Wreford, A and Moran, D}, title = {Making real options analysis more accessible for climate change adaptation. An application to afforestation as a flood management measure in the Scottish Borders.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {245}, number = {}, pages = {338-347}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.05.077}, pmid = {31158686}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Floods ; Scotland ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate change uncertainty makes decisions for adaptation investments challenging, in particular when long time horizons and large irreversible upfront costs are involved. Often the costs will be immediate and clear, but the benefits may be uncertain and only occur in the distant future. Robust decision-making methods such as real options analysis (ROA) handle uncertainty better and are therefore useful to guide decision-making for climate change adaptation. ROA allows for learning about climate change by developing flexible strategies that can be adjusted over time. Practical examples of ROA to climate change adaptation are still relatively limited and tend to be complex. We propose an application that makes ROA more accessible to policy-makers by using the user-friendly and freely available UK climate data of the UKCP09 weather generator, which provides projections of future rainfall, deriving transition probabilities for the ROA in a straightforward way and demonstrating how the analysis can be implemented in spreadsheet format using backward induction. The application is to afforestation as a natural flood management measure (NFM) in a rural catchment in Scotland. The applicability of ROA to broadleaf afforestation as a NFM has not been previously investigated. Different ROA strategies are presented based on varying the damage cost from flooding, fixed cost and the discount rate. The results illustrate how learning can lower the overall investment cost of climate change adaptation but also that the cost structure of afforestation does not lend itself very well to ROA.}, }
@article {pmid31157907, year = {2019}, author = {Neal-Boylan, L and Breakey, S and Nicholas, PK}, title = {Integrating Climate Change Topics Into Nursing Curricula.}, journal = {The Journal of nursing education}, volume = {58}, number = {6}, pages = {364-368}, doi = {10.3928/01484834-20190521-09}, pmid = {31157907}, issn = {1938-2421}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Curriculum ; *Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate ; Guidelines as Topic ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Health professionals have a key role in addressing the health impacts of climate change at several levels: direct patient care, client and community education, health professions education, and through advocacy and health policy development.<br><br>METHOD: Recognizing that nurses are the first line in health education, nursing faculty at the MGH Institute of Health Professions developed the first nurse-led Center for Climate Change, Climate Justice and Health (CCCCJH).<br><br>RESULTS: A steering committee of nurse climate change scholars and interested faculty developed a mission, vision, core values, and a strategic plan for the CCCCJH and are working on integrating climate change topics into nursing curricula at all levels.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Nurses are in the ideal position to lead the way to increase awareness among health professionals and students about the health impacts of climate change. Curricular integration of climate change topics at all levels will prepare our students to meet the needs and challenges of the future. [J Nurs Educ. 2019;58(6):364-368.].}, }
@article {pmid31156493, year = {2019}, author = {Lehman, B and Thompson, J and Davis, S and Carlson, JM}, title = {Affective Images of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {960}, pmid = {31156493}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change is not only a scientific phenomenon, but also a cultural one. Individuals' opinions on climate change are often based on emotion rather than on scientific evidence. Therefore, research into the emotional characteristics of the imagery that the non-expert public find relevant to climate change is important in order to build a database of effective climate change imagery, which can then be used by scientists, policymakers, and practitioners in mobilizing climate adaptation and resilience efforts. To this end, we collected ratings of relevance to climate change as well as emotional arousal and valence on 320 images to assess the relationship between relevance to climate change and the emotional qualities of the image. In addition, participants' environmental beliefs were measured, to investigate the relationship between beliefs and image ratings. The results suggest that images rated highly relevant to climate change are higher in negative emotional valence and emotional arousal. Overall, images were rated as being more relevant to climate change by participants with higher pro-environmental disposition. Critically, we have compiled the mean relevance, valence, and arousal ratings of each of these 320 images into a database that is posted online and freely available (https://affectiveclimateimages.weebly.com; https://www.nmu.edu/affectiveclimateimages) for use in future research on climate change visuals.}, }
@article {pmid31155789, year = {2019}, author = {Isaacs, D}, title = {Climate change: Whose responsibility?.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {55}, number = {6}, pages = {615-616}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.14475}, pmid = {31155789}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adolescent Behavior ; Adolescent Health ; Child ; Child Behavior ; Child Health ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Politics ; *Social Responsibility ; Sweden ; }, }
@article {pmid31153070, year = {2019}, author = {Gu, L and Chen, J and Xu, CY and Kim, JS and Chen, H and Xia, J and Zhang, L}, title = {The contribution of internal climate variability to climate change impacts on droughts.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {684}, number = {}, pages = {229-246}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.345}, pmid = {31153070}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The assessment of climate change impacts is usually done by calculating the change in drought conditions between future and historical periods by using multiple climate model simulations. However, this approach usually focuses on anthropogenic climate changes (ACCs) while ignoring the internal climate variability (ICV) caused by the chaotic nature of the climate system. Recent studies have shown that ICV plays an important role in the projected future climate change. To evaluate that role, this study quantifies the contribution of ICV to climate change impacts on regional droughts by using the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the fraction of standard deviation (FOSD) as metrics for China. The internal climate variability or noise (i.e. ICV) is estimated as the inter-member variability of two climate models' large-member ensembles; the signal (i.e. ACC) and the climate model uncertainty (or inter-model uncertainty, IMU) are estimated as the ensemble mean and inter-model variability of 29 global climate models, respectively. The drought conditions are characterized by drought frequency, duration and severity, which are quantified by using the theory of run based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that deteriorated drought conditions induced by ACCs are projected to occur over China. From the perspective of the SNR, the ICV impacts are less significant compared to the ACC impacts for drought metrics. Remarkable spatial variations of SNRs for future drought metrics are found, with values varying from 0.001 to exceeding 10. In terms of the FOSD, ICV contributions relative to the IMU are large, as FOSDs are >1 for around 22% grids. These results imply the significance of taking into account the impacts of ICV in drought assessment, any study ignores the influence of ICV may be biased.}, }
@article {pmid31152499, year = {2019}, author = {Asch, RG and Stock, CA and Sarmiento, JL}, title = {Climate change impacts on mismatches between phytoplankton blooms and fish spawning phenology.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {2544-2559}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14650}, pmid = {31152499}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Fishes ; *Phytoplankton ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature-linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high-emissions, climate-warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: "geographic spawners" whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and "environmental spawners" whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes >40°N. The temperature-linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across >85% of this region. "Extreme events," defined here as seasonal mismatches >30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10-fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.}, }
@article {pmid31152424, year = {2019}, author = {Fei, L and Meijun, Z and Min, H}, title = {Climate change in different geographical units and its impact on land production potential: a case study of Shaanxi Province, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {22}, pages = {22273-22283}, pmid = {31152424}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2018JQ4024//Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China/ ; 41701094//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {China ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Land production potential (LPP) was the maximum grain yield in one year that can be produced by land under the limitations of climate conditions and in the absence of pests and diseases and other factors. Whether climate change was increasing or reducing the LPP in a given region was uncertain. Therefore, Shaanxi Province was selected to analyze the regional differences in climate change and its effects on LPP change and to identify the main climatic factor restricting LPP in different regions by combining Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model with the Geodetector model. Results showed that the temperature in Shaanxi Province showed an upward trend in 2000-2015; the rise in temperature to the north of Qinling Mountain (QM) was less than that to the south of QM. However, rising temperature had a yield-improving effect to the north of QM and a yield-decreasing effect to the south of QM. There was a precipitation increase in Arid Sandy (AS) area and Loess Plateau (LP), and the precipitation reduced in all other geographical units. The increase in LPP of Shaanxi mostly was caused by increasing precipitation. However, precipitation was declined and reduced LPP to the south of QM; that is, precipitation decline was the dominated climatic factor for LPP decrease in QM, Hanjiang Basin (HB), and Daba Mountain (DM). To the north of QM, LPP in AS, LP, and Guanzhong Plain (GP) both dramatically increased, mainly improved by rising temperature, increasing precipitation, and rising temperature, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid31150427, year = {2019}, author = {Ray, DK and West, PC and Clark, M and Gerber, JS and Prishchepov, AV and Chatterjee, S}, title = {Climate change has likely already affected global food production.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0217148}, pmid = {31150427}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 205212/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation/*trends ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production/*trends ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Food Supply ; Global Health ; }, abstract = {Crop yields are projected to decrease under future climate conditions, and recent research suggests that yields have already been impacted. However, current impacts on a diversity of crops subnationally and implications for food security remains unclear. Here, we constructed linear regression relationships using weather and reported crop data to assess the potential impact of observed climate change on the yields of the top ten global crops-barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat at ~20,000 political units. We find that the impact of global climate change on yields of different crops from climate trends ranged from -13.4% (oil palm) to 3.5% (soybean). Our results show that impacts are mostly negative in Europe, Southern Africa and Australia but generally positive in Latin America. Impacts in Asia and Northern and Central America are mixed. This has likely led to ~1% average reduction (-3.5 X 1013 kcal/year) in consumable food calories in these ten crops. In nearly half of food insecure countries, estimated caloric availability decreased. Our results suggest that climate change has already affected global food production.}, }
@article {pmid31148381, year = {2020}, author = {Zou, Y and Ge, X and Guo, S and Zhou, Y and Wang, T and Zong, S}, title = {Impacts of climate change and host plant availability on the global distribution of Brontispa longissima (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae).}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {76}, number = {1}, pages = {244-256}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5503}, pmid = {31148381}, issn = {1526-4998}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Cocos ; *Coleoptera ; Ecology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The coconut hispine beetle Brontispa longissima Gestro (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is one of the most serious pests of the coconut palm, Cocos nucifera L. (Arecales: Arecaceae) and other palms. The invasion of B. longissima causes major economic and ecological losses worldwide. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the risk of spread were evaluated. CLIMEX was used to project its global potential distribution based on historical climate data (1987-2016) and simulated future climate data (2071-2100).<br><br>RESULTS: The distribution of B. longissima included each continent under historical and future climate conditions. However, climate suitability was predicted to decrease in most tropical and subtropical regions under a climate change scenario. Temperature was a more important determinant of the climatic suitability of the pest than relative humidity or precipitation. The availability of host plants (Arecaceae) only had a slight impact on climate suitability in some regions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The projected potential distribution of B. longissima will help to determine the impacts of climate change and will provide supportive information for the development of management strategies to reduce future economic and ecological losses. &#xa9; 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid31148300, year = {2019}, author = {Amundrud, SL and Srivastava, DS}, title = {Disentangling how climate change can affect an aquatic food web by combining multiple experimental approaches.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {10}, pages = {3528-3538}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14717}, pmid = {31148300}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; *Food Chain ; Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {Predicting the biological effects of climate change presents major challenges due to the interplay of potential biotic and abiotic mechanisms. Climate change can create unexpected outcomes by altering species interactions, and uncertainty over the ability of species to develop in situ tolerance or track environmental change further hampers meaningful predictions. As multiple climatic variables shift in concert, their potential interactions further complicate ecosystem responses. Despite awareness of these complexities, we still lack controlled experiments that manipulate multiple climatic stressors, species interactions, and prior exposure of species to future climatic conditions. Particularly studies that address how changes in water availability interact with other climatic stressors to affect aquatic ecosystems are still rare. Using aquatic insect communities of Neotropical tank bromeliads, we combined controlled manipulations of drought length and species interactions with a space-for-time transplant (lower elevations represent future climate) and a common garden approach. Manipulating drought length and experiment elevation revealed that adverse effects of drought were amplified at the warmer location, highlighting the potential of climatic stressors to synergistically affect communities. Manipulating the presence of omnivorous tipulid larvae showed that negative interactions from tipulids, presumably from predation, arose under drought, and were stronger at the warmer location, stressing the importance of species interactions in mediating community responses to climate change. The common garden treatments revealed that prior community exposure to potential future climatic conditions did not affect the outcome. In this powerful experiment, we demonstrated how complexities arise from the interplay of biotic and abiotic mechanisms of climate change. We stress that single species can steer ecological outcomes, and suggest that focusing on such disproportionately influential species may improve attempts at making meaningful predictions of climate change impacts on food webs.}, }
@article {pmid31146893, year = {2019}, author = {Tal, A}, title = {Climate change's impact on Lake Kinneret: Letting the data tell the story.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {685}, number = {}, pages = {1272-1275}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.282}, pmid = {31146893}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Israel ; Lakes/*analysis ; Lebanon ; *Water Movements ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid31141628, year = {2019}, author = {Salas, RN and Jacobs, W and Perera, F}, title = {The Case of Juliana v. U.S. - Children and the Health Burdens of Climate Change.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {380}, number = {22}, pages = {2085-2087}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp1905504}, pmid = {31141628}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Child ; Civil Rights/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Climate Change/mortality ; Global Warming/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Infant ; Physician's Role ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/etiology ; United States/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid31141533, year = {2019}, author = {Silva, JLSE and Cruz-Neto, O and Peres, CA and Tabarelli, M and Lopes, AV}, title = {Climate change will reduce suitable Caatinga dry forest habitat for endemic plants with disproportionate impacts on specialized reproductive strategies.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0217028}, pmid = {31141533}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Algorithms ; Brazil ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Forests ; Geography ; Models, Biological ; *Plants ; Pollination ; Probability ; Reproduction ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global climate change alters the dynamic of natural ecosystems and directly affects species distributions, persistence and diversity. The impacts of climate change may lead to dramatic changes in biotic interactions, such as pollination and seed dispersal. Life history traits are extremely important to consider the vulnerability of a species to climate change, producing more robust models than those based primarily on species distributions. Here, we hypothesized that rising temperatures and aridity will reduce suitable habitats for the endemic flora of the Caatinga, the most diverse dry tropical forest on Earth. Specifically, species with specialized reproductive traits (e.g. vertebrate pollination, biotic dispersal, obligatory cross-pollination) should be more affected by climate change than those with generalist traits. We performed two ecological niche models (current and future) to simulate the effects of climate change on the distribution area of endemic species in relation to life-history traits. We used the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 models for both intermediate (RCP4.5) and highest predicted (RCP8.5) GHG emission scenarios, with a resolution of 30' (~1 km2). Habitat with high occurrence probability (>80%) of endemic species will be reduced (up to ~10% for trees, ~13% for non-arboreous, 10-28% for species with any pollination/reproductive system), with the greatest reductions for species with specialized reproductive traits. In addition, the likely concentration of endemic plants in the extreme northeastern portion of the Caatinga, in more mesic areas, coincides with the currently most human-modified areas of the ecosystem, which combined with climate change will further contract suitable habitats of endemic species. In conclusion, plant species endemic to the Caatinga are highly vulnerable to even conservative scenarios of future climate change and may lose much of their climatic envelopes. New protected areas should be located in the northeastern portion of the Caatinga, which hosts a more favorable climate, but is currently exposed to escalating agricultural intensification.}, }
@article {pmid31139439, year = {2019}, author = {Muttarak, R and Dimitrova, A}, title = {Climate change and seasonal floods: potential long-term nutritional consequences for children in Kerala, India.}, journal = {BMJ global health}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {e001215}, pmid = {31139439}, issn = {2059-7908}, }
@article {pmid31139411, year = {2019}, author = {Padilla, P and Ducret, V and Bonneaud, C and Courant, J and Herrel, A}, title = {Acclimation temperature effects on locomotor traits in adult aquatic anurans (X. tropicalis and X. laevis) from different latitudes: possible implications for climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coz019}, pmid = {31139411}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Climate change is in part responsible for the 70% decline in amphibian species numbers worldwide. Although temperature is expected to impact whole-organism performance in ectotherms, reversible thermal acclimation has been suggested as a mechanism that may buffer responses to abrupt temperature changes. Here, we test for an effect of acclimation on locomotor performance traits (jump force and stamina) in adults of two predominantly aquatic and closely related frog species from different climatic regions, Xenopus tropicalis (tropical) and Xenopus laevis (temperate). We find significant effects of acclimation temperature on exertion capacity and for jump force in X. tropicalis but no effect of acclimation temperature on burst performance in X. laevis. Our results suggest that the two locomotor performance traits measured are differentially impacted by acclimation temperature in X. tropicalis. Our results further support the hypothesis that lower-latitude ectotherms might have greater acclimation capacity than high-latitude ones. Finally, our results highlight the importance of investigating multiple performance traits when evaluating how animals may cope with changes in temperature. Further work is required to evaluate the potential for acclimation in mitigating the negative impacts of climate change on amphibian populations.}, }
@article {pmid31139199, year = {2019}, author = {Dahal, K and Li, XQ and Tai, H and Creelman, A and Bizimungu, B}, title = {Improving Potato Stress Tolerance and Tuber Yield Under a Climate Change Scenario - A Current Overview.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {563}, pmid = {31139199}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Global climate change in the form of extreme heat and drought poses a major challenge to sustainable crop production by negatively affecting plant performance and crop yield. Such negative impact on crop yield is likely to be aggravated in future because continued greenhouse gas emissions will cause further rise in temperature leading to increased evapo-transpiration and drought severity, soil salinity as well as insect and disease threats. This has raised a major challenge for plant scientists on securing global food demand, which urges an immediate need to enhance the current yield of major food crops by two-fold to feed the increasing population. As a fourth major food crop, enhancing potato productivity is important for food security of an increasing population. However, potato plant is highly prone to high temperature, drought, soil salinity, as well as insect and diseases. In order to maintain a sustainable potato production, we must adapt our cultivation practices and develop stress tolerant potato cultivars that are appropriately engineered for changing environment. Yet the lack of data on the underlying mechanisms of potato plant resistance to abiotic and biotic stress and the ability to predict future outcomes constitutes a major knowledge gap. It is a challenge for plant scientists to pinpoint means of improving tuber yield under increasing CO2, high temperature and drought stress including the changing patterns of pest and pathogen infestations. Understanding stress-related physiological, biochemical and molecular processes is crucial to develop screening procedures for selecting crop cultivars that can better adapt to changing growth conditions. Elucidation of such mechanism may offer new insights into the identification of specific characteristics that may be useful in breeding new cultivars aimed at maintaining or even enhancing potato yield under changing climate. This paper discusses the recent progress on the mechanism by which potato plants initially sense the changes in their surrounding CO2, temperature, water status, soil salinity and consequently respond to these changes at the molecular, biochemical and physiological levels. We suggest that future research needs to be concentrated on the identification and characterization of signaling molecules and target genes regulating stress tolerance and crop yield potential.}, }
@article {pmid31134598, year = {2019}, author = {Yao, Y and Tseng, YS}, title = {[Health Promotion and Emergency Medical Care for All Age Groups Under Conditions of Climate Change].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {29-34}, doi = {10.6224/JN.201906_66(3).05}, pmid = {31134598}, issn = {0047-262X}, mesh = {Age Factors ; *Climate Change ; *Emergency Medical Services ; *Health Promotion ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on the ecosystem services that people rely on, such as water, air, and agricultural products. The quality and quantity of various ecosystem services may be diminished under conditions of extreme climate change. Therefore, the effects of climate change may be expected to threaten people's health and survival. The concept of health promotion includes attention to the environment and emphasizes balance between nature and manmade structures. In addition, health promotion practices and actions in response to climate change emphasize multidisciplinary cooperation and focus on health inequality and vulnerable populations. Therefore, health promotion professionals must have sufficient professional competence in order to manage the multifaceted health impacts of climate change. The purpose of this article is to review the literature on health promotion and emergency medical care under conditions of climate change. Examples are provided to delineate the biological, psychological, social, and spiritual effects of climate change. The results of this literature review may provide community-based health promotion and emergency medical services guidance for further development and improvements. Healthcare professionals are expected to play a central role in managing the impact of climate change in order to achieve health for all.}, }
@article {pmid31134596, year = {2019}, author = {Wu, CD}, title = {[Application of Geospatial Information Technologies in Assessing Changes in Regional Health Risks Related to Climate Change].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {14-22}, doi = {10.6224/JN.201906_66(3).03}, pmid = {31134596}, issn = {0047-262X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Geographic Information Systems ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {Changes in climate and global warming trends impact the ecological balance as well as human health. The recent development of geospatial information technologies such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing provides useful tools to assess the impacts of climate changes on human health over large areas. This article aimed to conduct a literature review related to the application of geospatial information technologies in order to assess climate-change-related health risks in Taiwan, with primary outcomes of interest including physiological and mental health and infectious diseases. Three environmental factors, including temperature, precipitation, and air pollution, and their impacts on human health were considered. Comments were raised for future studies in Taiwan on this subject area. Among the hundred papers reviewed, 28 were related to the target topic, and air pollution and fine particle studies were the focus of most of these 28 papers. Studies related to extreme temperature indicted growing concern with this issue. However, limited research was found related to precipitation and environmental greenness. Therefore, future studies should pay greater attention to these two environmental issues. We hope that the findings of this literature review will encourage more researchers to investigate this subject.}, }
@article {pmid31134595, year = {2019}, author = {Wu, PC}, title = {[Adaptation to Climate Change: Regional Revitalization and Community Health].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {6-13}, doi = {10.6224/JN.201906_66(3).02}, pmid = {31134595}, issn = {0047-262X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published "The Adaptation Gap Report 2018" in December 2018 to promote adaptation to global climate change in the realm of public health. This report notes that we are still far from being able to cope with the impacts that many scientists are predicting. In addition, this report calls on countries to construct the Climate Resilience of Health System, which is a multidisciplinary approach to building the capacity necessary to prepare for and adapt to extreme weather. Strategies for adaptation require not only top-down integration from national and regional governments but also bottom-up participation from communities and individuals. This article aims to elucidate the concept of community-based adaptation to climate change and presents applications of this concept. Because the government is promoting the national policy of "Regional Revitalization", the sustainable community may be built if this policy takes into account adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31134594, year = {2019}, author = {Huang, CL}, title = {[Environmental Health and Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {66}, number = {3}, pages = {4-5}, doi = {10.6224/JN.201906_66(3).01}, pmid = {31134594}, issn = {0047-262X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Education, Nursing ; Environmental Health/*education ; Humans ; Public Health Nursing ; *Public Policy ; Sustainable Development ; Taiwan ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {The United Nation's 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are an urgent call to all countries for action to combat climate change and its impacts (United Nations, 2015). In response, Taiwan's highest national body, the Executive Yuan, has designated health as one of eight primary areas of threats and challenges in the policy document "Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change in Taiwan". Further, the Ministry of Education has been promoting climate-change adaptation education since 2012 and, in 2016, the Teaching Alliance was established to promote the integration of climate change issues into public education curricula as well as resource sharing and multidisciplinary collaboration (Ministry of Education, 2019). The focus of nursing on primary healthcare and community care makes nursing professionals critical to successfully attaining UN SDGs (Shmian, 2016). In addition, the environmental health component of nursing education addresses core global health and public health competences directly (Clark, Raffray, Hendricks, &amp; Gagnon, 2016). The American Nurses Association (2013) includes environmental health as one of the eleven standards of professional performance for public health nursing. This column invites Teaching Alliance educators to share their experiences in multidisciplinary professional, teaching, and practice environments in articles that hopefully enhance readers' knowledge of adaptation strategies and of the sustainable development of public health under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31133941, year = {2019}, author = {Böhm, G and Pfister, HR and Salway, A and Fløttum, K}, title = {Remembering and Communicating Climate Change Narratives - The Influence of World Views on Selective Recollection.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1026}, pmid = {31133941}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {We examine how people remember stories about climate change and how they communicate these stories to others. Drawing on theories of reconstructive memory and cultural theory, we assume that recollection is systematically affected by an individual's world view as well as by the world view of the target audience. In an experimental study with a Norwegian representative sample (N = 266), participants read a story about three politicians, in which each protagonist was described as holding a specific world view and as trying to tackle climate change with a corresponding strategy (individualistic/free market oriented, hierarchical/technology-oriented, or egalitarian/sustainability-oriented). After 1 day and then after 1 week, participants were asked to retell the story as if to somebody who was characterized as being either an individualist, a hierarchist, or an egalitarian; in addition, a neutral recall control condition without a specified audience was included. Participants' own world view was assessed and they were classified as endorsing individualism, or hierarchism, or egalitarianism. We hypothesized that retellings would be selectively reconstructed according to the world view of the participant, as well as tuned to the audience's world view. We assessed the cognitive structure of the recollected story, and, using methods from computational text analysis, we computed similarities among retellings and the original narrative, and among retellings and world views. Results suggest that (i) retellings become less accurate over time, (ii) retelling to an audience with an explicit world view leads to more strongly filtered retellings than recalling without a specified audience, but the filter operates in a non-specific manner with respect to world views, (iii) the cognitive structure of the recollected story shows small but systematic differences concerning the link between story problem and solution as a function of the participant's and the audience's world view. No interaction was found between the world view of the participant and that of the audience. Results emphasize the role of world views in communicating climate change, and might help to better understand phenomena such as polarization and echo chamber effects.}, }
@article {pmid31131789, year = {2019}, author = {Chersich, M}, title = {Will global warming undo the hard-won gains of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV?.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {109}, number = {5}, pages = {287-288}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i5.13988}, pmid = {31131789}, issn = {2078-5135}, mesh = {Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use ; Female ; *Global Warming ; *HIV ; HIV Infections/*prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Humans ; Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical/*prevention &amp; control ; Pregnancy ; Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid31130141, year = {2019}, author = {Wilcox, BA and Echaubard, P and de Garine-Wichatitsky, M and Ramirez, B}, title = {Vector-borne disease and climate change adaptation in African dryland social-ecological systems.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {36}, pmid = {31130141}, issn = {2049-9957}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; *Desert Climate ; Disease Vectors ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/parasitology ; Parasitic Diseases/*prevention &amp; control/*transmission ; Risk Factors ; Rural Population ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Drylands, which are among the biosphere's most naturally limiting and environmentally variable ecosystems, constitute three-quarters of the African continent. As a result, environmental sustainability and human development along with vector-borne disease (VBD) control historically have been especially challenging in Africa, particularly in the sub-Saharan and Sahelian drylands. Here, the VBD burden, food insecurity, environmental degradation, and social vulnerability are particularly severe. Changing climate can exacerbate the legion of environmental health threats in Africa, the social dimensions of which are now part of the international development agenda. Accordingly, the need to better understand the dynamics and complex coupling of populations and environments as exemplified by drylands is increasingly recognized as critical to the design of more sustainable interventions.<br><br>MAIN BODY: This scoping review examines the challenge of vector-borne disease control in drylands with a focus on Africa, and the dramatic, ongoing environmental and social changes taking place. Dryland societies persisted and even flourished in the past despite changing climates, extreme and unpredictable weather, and marginal conditions for agriculture. Yet intrusive forces largely out of the control of traditional dryland societies, along with the negative impacts of globalization, have contributed to the erosion of dryland's cultural and natural resources. This has led to the loss of resilience underlying the adaptive capacity formerly widely exhibited among dryland societies. A growing body of evidence from studies of environmental and natural resource management demonstrates how, in light of dryland system's inherent complexity, these factors and top-down interventions can impede sustainable development and vector-borne disease control. Strengthening adaptive capacity through community-based, participatory methods that build on local knowledge and are tailored to local ecological conditions, hold the best promise of reversing current trends.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A significant opportunity exists to simultaneously address the increasing threat of vector-borne diseases and climate change through methods aimed at strengthening adaptive capacity. The integrative framework and methods based on social-ecological systems and resilience theory offers a novel set of tools that allow multiple threats and sources of vulnerability to be addressed in combination. Integration of recent advances in vector borne disease ecology and wider deployment of these tools could help reverse the negative social and environmental trends currently seen in African drylands.}, }
@article {pmid31129549, year = {2019}, author = {Haque, U and da Silva, PF and Devoli, G and Pilz, J and Zhao, B and Khaloua, A and Wilopo, W and Andersen, P and Lu, P and Lee, J and Yamamoto, T and Keellings, D and Wu, JH and Glass, GE}, title = {The human cost of global warming: Deadly landslides and their triggers (1995-2014).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {673-684}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.415}, pmid = {31129549}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Worldwide, landslides incur catastrophic and significant economic and human losses. Previous studies have characterized the patterns in landslides' fatalities, from all kinds of triggering causes, at a continental or global scale, but they were based on data from periods of <10 years. The research herein presented hypothesizes that climate change associated with extreme rainfall and population distribution is contributing to a higher number of deadly landslides worldwide. This study maps and identified deadly landslides in 128 countries and it encompasses their role, for a 20 years' period from January/1995 to December/2014, considered representative for establishing a relationship between landslides and their meteorological triggers. A database of georeferenced landslides, their date, and casualties' information, duly validated, was implemented. A hot spot analysis for the daily record of landslide locations was performed, as well as a percentile-based approach to evaluate the trend of extreme rainfall events for each occurrence. The relationship between casualty, population distribution, and rainfall was also evaluated. For 20 years, 3876 landslides caused a total of 163,658 deaths and 11,689 injuries globally. They occurred most frequently between June and December in the Northern Hemisphere, and between December and February in the Southern Hemisphere. A significant global rise in the number of deadly landslides and hotspots across the studied period was observed. Analysis of daily rainfall confirmed that more than half of the events were in areas exposed to the risk of extreme rainfall. The relationships established between extreme rainfall, population distribution, seasonality, and landslides provide a useful basis for efforts to model the adverse impacts of extreme rainfall due to climate change and human activities and thus contribute towards a more resilient society.}, }
@article {pmid31129527, year = {2019}, author = {Woodward, A and Baumgartner, J and Ebi, KL and Gao, J and Kinney, PL and Liu, Q}, title = {Population health impacts of China's climate change policies.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {175}, number = {}, pages = {178-185}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.05.020}, pmid = {31129527}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Air Pollution/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Policy ; Humans ; *Population Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Rapid and wide-ranging reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to meet the climate targets agreed upon at the 2015 Paris climate conference. There will be significant transition risks for health, livelihoods, and ecosystems associated with large-scale mitigation, but also opportunities. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts, positive and negative, of climate policies on population health in China. We review the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) that China took to the Paris meeting, link commitments in the INDC to national planning documents relevant to environment and health, and search the literature for Chinese publications on health trade-offs and synergies. Synergies are evident in the measures taken to reduce local air pollution in China: controls on coal burning have materially improved local air quality and benefited health. But there may be risks to health also, depending on how policies are implemented and what safeguards are provided. To date most assessments of the health impacts of climate policies in China have been modelling studies. We recommend work of this kind is complemented by observational research to identify unexpected impacts and vulnerabilities. It will become even more important to undertake this work as emission reductions accelerate to meet the Paris climate targets.}, }
@article {pmid31129137, year = {2019}, author = {Rickert, B and van den Berg, H and Bekure, K and Girma, S and de Roda Husman, AM}, title = {Including aspects of climate change into water safety planning: Literature review of global experience and case studies from Ethiopian urban supplies.}, journal = {International journal of hygiene and environmental health}, volume = {222}, number = {5}, pages = {744-755}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijheh.2019.05.007}, pmid = {31129137}, issn = {1618-131X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Drinking Water/chemistry/microbiology/parasitology ; Ethiopia ; *Water Quality ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {In recent years, the water safety plan approach has been extended towards climate-resilient water safety planning. This happened in response to increasing insight into impacts of climate on drinking-water and required adaptation to anticipated climate change. Literature was reviewed for published guidance and case examples, documenting how to consider climate in water safety planning to support future uptake. Climate-resilient water safety plans were piloted within a project in the water supplies of Addis Ababa and Adama, Ethiopia. Case examples have been published in four of six WHO regions with a focus on urban supplies. Integration of climate aspects focused mostly on the steps of establishing the team, system description, hazard analysis and risk assessment, improvement planning and development of management procedures. While the traditional framework focuses on drinking-water quality, considering climate change augments aspects of water quantity. Therefore, other factors affecting water quantity such as population development and demand of other sectors need to be considered as well. Local climate information and tools should be employed as a significant success factor for future uptake. Such information should be incorporated as it becomes available, and may - depending on the setting - be incrementally integrated into existing water safety plans or used to develop new ones.}, }
@article {pmid31125746, year = {2019}, author = {Onozuka, D and Gasparrini, A and Sera, F and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y}, title = {Future projections of temperature-related excess out-of-hospital cardiac arrest under climate change scenarios in Japan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {333-339}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.196}, pmid = {31125746}, issn = {1879-1026}, support = {MR/M022625/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; MR/R013349/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cold Temperature/*adverse effects ; *Forecasting ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Japan ; Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest/*epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported associations between global climate change and mortality. However, future projections of temperature-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) have not been thoroughly evaluated. Thus, we aimed to project temperature-related morbidity for OHCA concomitant with climate change.<br><br>METHODS: We collected national registry data on all OHCA cases reported in 2005-2015 from all 47 Japanese prefectures. We used a two-stage time series analysis to estimate temperature-OHCA relationships. Time series of current and future daily mean temperature variations were constructed according to four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using five general circulation models. We projected excess morbidity for heat and cold and the net change in 1990-2099 for each climate change scenario using the assumption of no adaptation or population changes.<br><br>RESULTS: During the study period, 739,717 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported. Net decreases in temperature-related excess morbidity were observed under higher emission scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was -0.8% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: -1.9, 0.1) for a mild emission scenario (RCP2.6), -2.6% (95% eCI: -4.4, -0.8) for a stabilization scenario (RCP4.5), -3.4% (95% eCI: -5.7, -1.0) for a stabilization scenario (RCP6.0), and&#x202f;-&#x202f;4.2% (95% eCI: -8.3, -0.1) for an extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that Japan is projected to experience a substantial net reduction in OHCAs in higher-emission scenarios. The decrease in risk is limited to a specific morbidity cause, and a broader assessment within climate change scenarios should consider other direct and indirect impacts.}, }
@article {pmid31125741, year = {2019}, author = {Areia, NP and Intrigliolo, D and Tavares, A and Mendes, JM and Sequeira, MD}, title = {The role of media between expert and lay knowledge: A study of Iberian media coverage on climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {291-300}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.191}, pmid = {31125741}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Individuals play a crucial role in combating climate change, but high levels of acknowledgment and engagement are needed to lead to changes toward more sustainable behaviours. In this aspect, media plays an important role in shaping individuals' awareness about climate change. This study aims to analyse Iberian media coverage about climate change to further discuss its influence on the public's engagement with the subject. A total of 449 news were collected from Iberian newspapers. Their characteristics were analysed through quantitative content analysis. Data shows important journalistic bias toward a national framing, mainly focusing on drought and its impact on agriculture. The debate is focused on technological and political discourses. The gaps found on the Iberian media coverage may contribute to public's low levels of acknowledgement and engagement, not enhancing the possibility of change in individuals' behaviours for more sustainable actions.}, }
@article {pmid31121402, year = {2019}, author = {Samah, AA and Shaffril, HAM and Fadzil, MF}, title = {Comparing adaptation ability towards climate change impacts between the youth and the older fishermen.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {681}, number = {}, pages = {524-532}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.089}, pmid = {31121402}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Fisheries/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Malaysia ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {In recent years, a considerable amount of studies published locally which focused on the influence of age on climate change ability. Accordingly, this has driven the present study to achieve its main objective which is to compare the adaptation ability between youth and older fishermen. The current research is quantitative in nature; hence, a survey was conducted on a total of 259 youth and older fishermen residing in different states of Malaysia, namely Pulau Pinang, Terengganu, Johor, and Kedah. The present study managed to conclude a unique and important result which stated that youth and older fishermen within the context of Malaysia have an equally strong adaptation ability. In regard to this matter, a number of recommendations were presented at the end of this paper with the hope that it can act as a basis for future scholars to conduct more climate change related studies.}, }
@article {pmid31121353, year = {2019}, author = {Green, FB and East, AG and Salice, CJ}, title = {Will temperature increases associated with climate change potentiate toxicity of environmentally relevant concentrations of chloride on larval green frogs (Lithobates clamitans)?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {282-290}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.018}, pmid = {31121353}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Chlorides/*toxicity ; Climate Change ; Dose-Response Relationship, Drug ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Larva/drug effects/growth &amp; development ; Maryland ; Rana clamitans/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Toxicity Tests, Subchronic ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {An important challenge in amphibian ecotoxicology and conservation is that amphibian toxicity tests are usually focused on a single chemical while populations experience multiple, simultaneous stressors. For example, about 14 million tons of road de-icing salts are used each year in North America with NaCl accounting for 98% of total salt use and, hence, elevated chloride is an important environmental stressor to aquatic organisms, including amphibians. As well, higher temperature as a result of climate change is becoming an increasingly important environmental stressor. There are no data on the combined effects of chloride and temperature on amphibians hinders conservation efforts. We conducted field studies to characterize chloride concentrations and water temperatures in known amphibian breeding habitats and performed toxicity tests to explore impacts of these two stressors on a common anuran, the green frog (Lithobates clamitans). A 96-hour acute toxicity test was conducted to first determine a chloride LC50 (2587.5 mg Cl[-]/L) at a single, neutral temperature, which was used to inform the treatment levels of the sub-chronic test, which also included a temperature range. In the sub-chronic study, green frog larvae were exposed to three temperatures (18, 22, and 25 °C), and four concentrations of chloride (0, 500, 1000, and 2000 mg Cl[-]/L) for 35 days. At all temperatures, tadpoles exposed to 2000 mg Cl[-]/L had significantly higher mortality. While there was no significant effect of temperature alone on mortality, survival of tadpoles was significantly lower at 1000 mg Cl[-]/L at the two higher temperatures suggesting a potentiation of chloride ion toxicity with increasing temperature. Comparing toxicity results to field measurements of chloride and temperature suggests green frog tadpoles and other species with similar sensitivity are likely negatively affected. Data on additional species and populations would further increase our understanding of how salt and temperature may shape aquatic communities.}, }
@article {pmid31121350, year = {2019}, author = {Häder, DP and Barnes, PW}, title = {Comparing the impacts of climate change on the responses and linkages between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {682}, number = {}, pages = {239-246}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.024}, pmid = {31121350}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Aquatic and terrestrial organisms are being exposed to a number of anthropogenically-induced environmental stresses as a consequence of climate change. In addition, climate change is altering various linkages that exist between ecosystems on land and in water. Here we compare and contrast how climate change is altering aquatic and terrestrial environments and address some of the ways that the organisms in these ecosystems, especially the primary producers, are being affected by climate change factors, including changes in temperature, moisture, atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar UV radiation. Whereas there are some responses to climate change in common between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (e.g., changes in species composition and shifting geographic ranges and distributions), there are also responses that fundamentally differ between these two (e.g., responses to UV radiation). Climate change is also disrupting land-water connections in ways that influence biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions in ways that can modify how aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are affected by climate change and can influence climate change. The effects of climate change on these ecosystems are having wide-ranging effects on ecosystem biodiversity, structure and function and the abilities of these systems to provide essential services.}, }
@article {pmid31120003, year = {2019}, author = {Haniotis, T}, title = {Opinion paper: Beef, climate change and a slice of common sense.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {1785-1787}, doi = {10.1017/S1751731119001101}, pmid = {31120003}, issn = {1751-732X}, }
@article {pmid31119538, year = {2020}, author = {Lin, HC and Chou, LC and Zhang, WH}, title = {Cross-Strait climate change and agricultural product loss.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {27}, number = {12}, pages = {12908-12921}, pmid = {31119538}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Industry ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {The structure of agricultural industries at Cross-Strait differs as climate change is considered. In fact, its influence on their agriculture and other industries vary when the impact produced by natural disasters due to climate change are faced. To estimate direct and indirect losses caused by natural disasters, this study applies Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) analysis developed by Miller and Blair (2009) to discuss the development among Cross-Strait industries as they face disaster losses. The data sources used in this article are from Lin (2013), Cross-Strait ICIO table, and the statistics of agriculture in the periods 2005-2017 for Taiwan and Mainland China. The main results from our ICIO analysis are as follows: the value-added losses caused by natural disasters mainly involve agriculture, forestry, fishery, wholesale and retail trade, animal feed, and chemical fertilizer industries. These sectors account for 87.4% in Mainland China and 94.6% in Taiwan of total separately.}, }
@article {pmid31118471, year = {2019}, author = {Cazzolla Gatti, R and Callaghan, T and Velichevskaya, A and Dudko, A and Fabbio, L and Battipaglia, G and Liang, J}, title = {Accelerating upward treeline shift in the Altai Mountains under last-century climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {7678}, pmid = {31118471}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Treeline shift and tree growth often respond to climatic changes and it is critical to identify and quantify their dynamics. Some regions are particularly sensitive to climate change and the Altai Mountains, located in Central and East Asia, are showing unequivocal signs. The mean annual temperature in the area has increased by 1.3-1.7 °C in the last century. As this mountain range has ancient and protected forests on alpine slopes, we focus on determining the treeline structure and dynamics. We integrated in situ fine-scale allometric data with analyses from dendrochronological samples, high-resolution 3D drone photos and new satellite images to study the dynamics and underlying causal mechanisms of any treeline movement and growth changes in a remote preserved forest at the Aktru Research Station in the Altai Mountain. We show that temperature increase has a negative effect on mountain tree growth. In contrast, only younger trees grow at higher altitudes and we document a relatively fast upward shift of the treeline. During the last 52 years, treeline moved about 150 m upward and the rate of movement accelerated until recently. Before the 1950s, it never shifted over 2150-2200 m a.s.l. We suggest that a continuous upward expansion of the treeline would be at the expense of meadow and shrub species and radically change this high-mountain ecosystem with its endemic flora. This documented treeline shift represents clear evidence of the increased velocity of climate change during the last century.}, }
@article {pmid31116787, year = {2019}, author = {Zuo, J and Xu, J and Li, W and Yang, D}, title = {Understanding shallow soil moisture variation in the data-scarce area and its relationship with climate change by GLDAS data.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0217020}, pmid = {31116787}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; China ; *Climate Change ; Farms ; Forests ; Geography ; Grassland ; Models, Statistical ; Rain ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Soil/*chemistry ; Temperature ; Water/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Quantitatively evaluating the spatiotemporal variation of soil moisture (SM) and its causes can help us to understand regional eco-hydrological processes. However, the complicated geographical environment and the scarce observation data make it difficult to evaluate SM in Northwest China. Selecting the Tarim River Basin (TRB) as a typical representative of the data-scarce area in Northwest China, we conducted an integrated approach to quantitatively assess the spatiotemporal variation of shallow soil moisture (SSM) and its responses to climate change by gathering the earth system data product. Results show that the low-value of SSM distributes in Taklamakan Desert while the high-value basically distributes in the Pamirs and the southern foothill of Tianshan Mountains, where the land types are mostly forest, grassland, and farmland. Annual average SSM of these three land types present a significant increasing trend during the study period. SM at 0-10 cm of all land types are positively correlated to precipitation in spring and autumn, and SM at 0-10 cm in the forest, grassland, and farmland are positively correlated with temperature in winter. SSM presents in-phase relation with precipitation whereas it presents anti-phase relation with temperature, with the significant resonance periods about 6-8 years and 2-3 years which mainly distribute from 1970s to early 1990s and 1960s respectively. The time lags of SSM relative to temperature change are longer than its lags relative to precipitation change, and the lags vary from different land types.}, }
@article {pmid31113889, year = {2019}, author = {Kovaleski, AP and Baseggio, M}, title = {Is increased corn yield really the silver lining of climate change?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {21}, pages = {10206-10208}, pmid = {31113889}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Weather ; *Zea mays ; }, }
@article {pmid31112555, year = {2019}, author = {de Oliveira, UDR and Gomes, PB and Silva Cordeiro, RT and de Lima, GV and Pérez, CD}, title = {Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential habitat of an endangered Brazilian endemic coral: Discussion about deep sea refugia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0211171}, pmid = {31112555}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Area Under Curve ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; *Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Geography ; Global Warming ; Models, Theoretical ; ROC Curve ; Refugium ; }, abstract = {Climate and environmental conditions are determinant for coral distribution and their very existence. When changes in such conditions occur, their effects on distribution can be predicted through species distribution models, anticipating suitable habitats for the subsistence of species. Mussismilia harttii is one of the most endangered Brazilian endemic reef-building corals, and in increasing risk of extinction. Herein, species distribution models were used to determine the present and future potential habitats for M. harttii. Estimations were made through the maximum entropy approach, predicting suitable habitat losses and gains by the end of the 21st century. For this purpose, species records published in the last 20 years and current and future environmental variables were correlated. The best models were chosen according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and evaluated through the partial ROC (AUCratio), a new approach which uses independent occurrence data. Both approaches showed that the models performed satisfactorily in predicting potential habitat areas for the species. Future projections were made using the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2100, with different levels of greenhouse gas emission. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to model the Future Potential Habitat (FPH) of M. harttii in two different scenarios: stabilization of emissions (RCP 4.5) and increase of emissions (RCP 8.5). According to the results, shallow waters to the south of the study area concentrate most of the current potential habitats for the species. However, in future scenarios, there was a loss of suitable areas in relation to the Current Potential Habitat (RCP 4.5 46% and RCP 8.5 59%), whereas there is a southward shift of the suitable areas. In all scenarios of FPH, the temperature was the variable with the greatest contribution to the models (> 35%), followed by the current velocity (> 33%) and bathymetry (>29%). In contrast, there is an increase of deep (50-75 m) suitable areas FPH scenarios, mainly in the southern portion of its distribution, at Abrolhos Bank (off Espirito Santo State). These deeper sites might serve as refugia for the species in global warming scenarios. Coral communities at such depths would be less susceptible to impacts of climate change on temperature and salinity. However, the deep sea is not free from human impacts and measures to protect deeper ecosystems should be prioritized in environmental policies for Brazilian marine conservation, especially the Abrolhos Bank, due to its importance for M. harttii.}, }
@article {pmid31111639, year = {2019}, author = {Azzurro, E and Sbragaglia, V and Cerri, J and Bariche, M and Bolognini, L and Ben Souissi, J and Busoni, G and Coco, S and Chryssanthi, A and Fanelli, E and Ghanem, R and Garrabou, J and Gianni, F and Grati, F and Kolitari, J and Letterio, G and Lipej, L and Mazzoldi, C and Milone, N and Pannacciulli, F and Pešić, A and Samuel-Rhoads, Y and Saponari, L and Tomanic, J and Eda Topçu, N and Vargiu, G and Moschella, P}, title = {Climate change, biological invasions, and the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes: A large-scale survey based on local ecological knowledge.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {2779-2792}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14670}, pmid = {31111639}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Mediterranean Sea ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change and biological invasions are rapidly reshuffling species distribution, restructuring the biological communities of many ecosystems worldwide. Tracking these transformations in the marine environment is crucial, but our understanding of climate change effects and invasive species dynamics is often hampered by the practical challenge of surveying large geographical areas. Here, we focus on the Mediterranean Sea, a hot spot for climate change and biological invasions to investigate recent spatiotemporal changes in fish abundances and distribution. To this end, we accessed the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of small-scale and recreational fishers, reconstructing the dynamics of fish perceived as "new" or increasing in different fishing areas. Over 500 fishers across 95 locations and nine different countries were interviewed, and semiquantitative information on yearly changes in species abundance was collected. Overall, 75 species were mentioned by the respondents, mostly warm-adapted species of both native and exotic origin. Respondents belonging to the same biogeographic sectors described coherent spatial and temporal patterns, and gradients along latitudinal and longitudinal axes were revealed. This information provides a more complete understanding of the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes and it also demonstrates that adequately structured LEK methodology might be applied successfully beyond the local scale, across national borders and jurisdictions. Acknowledging this potential through macroregional coordination could pave the way for future large-scale aggregations of individual observations, increasing our potential for integrated monitoring and conservation planning at the regional or even global level. This might help local communities to better understand, manage, and adapt to the ongoing biotic transformations driven by climate change and biological invaders.}, }
@article {pmid31110687, year = {2019}, author = {Gong, H and Liu, H and Jiao, F and Lin, Z and Xu, X}, title = {Pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the future distribution of Spartina alterniflora along the Chinese coast.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {5380-5391}, pmid = {31110687}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {AIM: Global change seriously threatens the salt marsh ecosystem, while it remains unclear how S. will respond to climate change and sea level rise. Here, we investigated interactions among variables and identified the impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and their interactions on the distribution of Spartina alterniflora.<br><br>LOCATION: Northern Chinese coast and Southern Chinese coast.<br><br>TAXON: Spartina alterniflora Loisel.<br><br>METHODS: With global sensitivity analysis, we determined interactions among variables and their relative importance to the distribution of S.&#xa0;alterniflora. Integrating the Venn's four-set diagram, we built ecological niche models under current and three future scenarios to identify pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the distribution of S.&#xa0;alterniflora.<br><br>RESULTS: Mean diurnal range (Bio02) and Elevation were the two most critical variables controlling the distribution of S.&#xa0;alterniflora on the Chinese coast, and interactions among variables of the northern coast were much greater than that of the southern coast. Habitats change was mainly caused by pure effects of climate change, except habitats reduction on the southern coast. Pure effects of sea level rise were low, but it can influence habitats change through shared and coupling effects from complex interactions with climate change. Interactions of climate change and sea level rise can drive habitats change, and the changed habitats caused by shared and coupling effects were mainly distributed the areas near the landward side.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our research suggests paying attention to interactions among variables when calculating the relative importance of explanatory variables. Identifying pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise for the distribution of S.&#xa0;alterniflora will provide scientific references for assessing the risk of similar coastal species.}, }
@article {pmid31110674, year = {2019}, author = {Jia, SW and Zhang, ML}, title = {Pleistocene climate change and phylogeographic structure of the Gymnocarpos przewalskii (Caryophyllaceae) in the northwest China: Evidence from plastid DNA, ITS sequences, and Microsatellite.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {5219-5235}, pmid = {31110674}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Northwestern China has a wealth of endemic species, which has been hypothesized to be affected by the complex paleoclimatic and paleogeographic history during Quaternary. In this paper, we used Gymnocarpos przewalskii as a model to address the evolutionary history and current population genetic structure of species in northwestern China. We employed two chloroplast DNA fragments (rps16 and psbB-psbI), one nuclear DNA fragment (ITS), and simple sequence repeat (SSRs) to investigate the spatial genetic pattern of G. przewalskii. High genetic diversity (cpDNA: h S = 0.330, h T = 0.866; ITS: h S = 0.458, h T = 0.872) was identified in almost all populations, and most of the population have private haplotypes. Moreover, multimodal mismatch distributions were observed and estimates of Tajima's D and Fu's FS tests did not identify significantly departures from neutrality, indicating that recent expansion of G. przewalskii was rejected. Thus, we inferred that G. przewalskii survived generally in northwestern China during the Pleistocene. All data together support the genotypes of G. przewalskii into three groups, consistent with their respective geographical distributions in the western regions-Tarim Basin, the central regions-Hami Basin and Hexi Corridor, and the eastern regions-Alxa Desert and Wulate Prairie. Divergence among most lineages of G. przewalskii occurred in the Pleistocene, and the range of potential distributions is associated with glacial cycles. We concluded that climate oscillation during Pleistocene significantly affected the distribution of the species.}, }
@article {pmid31107027, year = {2019}, author = {Luo, X and Liang, Y and He, HS and Huang, C and Zhang, QL}, title = {[Effects of climate change, fire and silvicultural management on ecological resilience of typical cold-temperate forests in China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {1699-1712}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201905.011}, pmid = {31107027}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Fires ; Forestry/*methods ; *Forests ; Taiga ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Ecological resilience is characterized by the recovery capacity of forest ecosystem from a status affected by external disturbance to a stable status, which is one of the important targets for sustainable development of forests. Ecological resilience is sensitive to external factors, such as climate change, forest fire, and silvicutural management at large scales. Understanding the effects of those factors on ecological resilience is important for forest ecosystem management. In this study, we calculated ecological resilience with indicators including forest structure, composition and function. We used a landscape model LANDIS PRO to evaluate the effects of climate change, climate-induced fire, and silvicultural management on ecological resilience in boreal forests. We also evaluated whether the current thinning treatment could be implemented under the scenarios of climate change. The results showed that the initialized stand density and basal area from the year 2000 could represent the real forest landscape in year 2000, with no significant difference between the simulated landscape and the forest inventory data in the year 2010 at landscape scale. The results of simulated fire disturbance were consistent with the results from the field inventories in burned areas. The fire module parameters set adequately represented the current fire regimes in model simulation. The ecological resilience could increase by 15.7%-40.8% at landscape scale when fire intensity increased by 30%, whereas the ecological resilience decreased by 4.4%-24.6% when fire intensity increased by 200%. At the short and medium term, the effects of increased fire on forest ecological resilience were greater than that of climate change. Compared to the current base scenario, forest ecological resilience under B1 climate with fire intensity increased by 30% scenario and A2 climate with fire intensity increased by 200% scenario fluctuated in the ranges of -15.9%-38.9% and -60.4%-34.8% in the whole simulation period at landscape scale. Compared to no harvesting scenario, the current thinning strategy would decrease the ecological resilience at landscape scale under both B1 and A2 scenarios in all simulated periods. Under the scenario of B1 climate with 30% increases of fire intensity, no silvicultural management would be needed in the whole simulation period at landscape scale, whereas medium and high intensity of silvicultural management were suggested under the scenario of A2 climate with 200% increase of fire intensity.}, }
@article {pmid31107005, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, YG and Yuan, FH and Wang, AZ and Wu, JB and Zheng, XB and Yin, H and Guan, X}, title = {[Characteristics of climate change in Changbai Mountain ecological functional area, Northeast China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {1503-1512}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201905.006}, pmid = {31107005}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {We integrated the meteorological records from 36 national weather stations and CN05.1 gridded daily observation dataset to analyze the climate change characteristics of Changbai Mountain eco-functional area. Linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall mutation test, cumulative anomaly method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of temperature (annual temperature, seasonal temperature, extreme temperature), moisture (annual precipitation, seasonal precipitation, relative humidity), radiation (sunshine duration, sunshine percentage) and wind speed from 1961 to 2016. The results showed that, during 1961-2016, the temperature of this area increased, the radiation and wind speed decreased, and the precipitation varied periodically. Specifically, winter temperature [0.45 ℃·(10 a)[-1]] and the lowest temperature [0.74 ℃·(10 a)[-1]] significantly increased. The mean annual wind speed significantly decreased [-0.21 m·s[-1]·(10 a)[-1]]. No abrupt climate change was observed. The annual precipitation days decreased considerably [-7.01 d·(10 a)[-1]], which was different from the climate change pattern of Northeast China. The annual precipitation trend coefficient of this area was 16.06 mm·(10 a)[-1] , which could not be simply depicted by increase or decrease in trend. The precipitation change in this area was dominated by periodically patterns, and the period was 26 years and 3 years. Our results would be instructive to the regional ecological assessment, and the research on ecosystem responses to climate change and phenological changes.}, }
@article {pmid31106269, year = {2019}, author = {Bascompte, J and García, MB and Ortega, R and Rezende, EL and Pironon, S}, title = {Mutualistic interactions reshuffle the effects of climate change on plants across the tree of life.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {eaav2539}, pmid = {31106269}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Extinction, Biological ; Geography ; Insecta ; Linear Models ; Phylogeny ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/*classification ; Pollination ; Population Dynamics ; ROC Curve ; Risk ; Stochastic Processes ; *Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Climatically induced local species extinctions may trigger coextinction cascades, thus driving many more species to extinction than originally predicted by species distribution models. Using seven pollination networks across Europe that include the phylogeny and life history traits of plants, we show a substantial variability across networks in climatically predicted plant extinction-and particularly the subsequent coextinction-rates, with much higher values in Mediterranean than Eurosiberian networks. While geographic location best predicts the probability of a plant species to be driven to extinction by climate change, subsequent coextinctions are best predicted by the local network of interactions. These coextinctions not only increase the total number of plant species being driven to extinction but also add a bias in the way the major taxonomic and functional groups are pruned.}, }
@article {pmid31102688, year = {2019}, author = {Azani, N and Bruneau, A and Wojciechowski, MF and Zarre, S}, title = {Miocene climate change as a driving force for multiple origins of annual species in Astragalus (Fabaceae, Papilionoideae).}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {137}, number = {}, pages = {210-221}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2019.05.008}, pmid = {31102688}, issn = {1095-9513}, mesh = {Astragalus Plant/*anatomy &amp; histology ; Base Sequence ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Variation ; *Phylogeny ; *Phylogeography ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Astragalus, a highly diverse genus of flowering plants with its highest center of diversity in West Asia, is a classic example of rapid species-level radiation and adaptation to a diversity of habitats throughout the world. We examined the historical biogeography of Astragalus using molecular dating and ancestral area reconstruction to understand how past climate changes, geographical patterns and transition in life history have provoked diversification of Astragalus. Our results suggest that Astragalus probably originated during the middle Miocene in West Asia, underwent rapid diversification, subsequently and repeatedly expanded its range in the Mediterranean region, and later to North America through West Europe. This distribution range was also extended toward central and eastern Asia from the Middle Miocene to Pleistocene. Several climatic and geological processes during the Miocene-Pliocene may be implicated in the diversification of the major Astragalus clades. In particular, the annual lineages, which are important elements in the Mediterranean flora of Africa and Europe and in the deserts of southwest to central Asia, have arisen in response to progressing aridity from the late Miocene onwards (between 8.6 Ma and 2.98 Ma). Diversification rate analyses indicate three rapid and recent diversification events, one at c. 11 Ma in the clade that groups most of the Astragalus s.s. (all except the Ophiocarpus sister lineage), one at c. 5 Ma in the crown group of the Hypoglottis clade, including herbaceous annual and perennial species, and the most recent one at c. 3 Ma in the spiny cushion forming Astracantha clade. Our study highlights the complexity of processes and factors shaping diversifications in Astragalus; a complex interaction among climatic modifications providing opportunities for diversification and likely coincident with the evolution of key morphological and physiological adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid31096661, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, L and Guo, Z and Huang, G and Wang, R}, title = {Water Productivity Evaluation under Multi-GCM Projections of Climate Change in Oases of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {31096661}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Rivers ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {As the second largest inland river basin situated in the middle of the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China, the Heihe River basin (HRB) has been facing a severe water shortage problem, which seriously restricts its green and sustainable development. The evaluation of climate change impact on water productivity inferred by crop yield and actual evapotranspiration is of significant importance for water-saving in agricultural regions. In this study, the multi-model projections of climate change under the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were used to drive an agro-hydrological model to evaluate the crop water productivity in the middle irrigated oases of the HRB from 2021-2050. Compared with the water productivity simulation based on field experiments during 2012-2015, the projected water productivity in the two typical agricultural areas (Gaotai and Ganzhou) both exhibited an increasing trend in the future 30 years, which was mainly attributed to the significant decrease of the crop water consumption. The water productivity in the Gaotai area under the three RCP scenarios during 2021-2050 increased by 9.2%, 14.3%, and 11.8%, while the water productivity increased by 15.4%, 21.6%, and 19.9% in the Ganzhou area, respectively. The findings can provide useful information on the Hexi Corridor and the Belt and Road to policy-makers and stakeholders for sustainable development of the water-ecosystem-economy system.}, }
@article {pmid31096360, year = {2019}, author = {Lin, B and Zhu, J}, title = {The role of renewable energy technological innovation on climate change: Empirical evidence from China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {659}, number = {}, pages = {1505-1512}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.449}, pmid = {31096360}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To develop renewable energy as well as promote China's transition to a low-carbon economy, the government needs to pay attention to renewable energy technological innovation (RETI). Using China's provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015, and regarding the CO2 emissions as the proxy of climate change, this paper identifies the relationship between RETI and CO2 emissions as well as seeks to confirm the role of RETI on climate change. The linear regression model confirms that the RETI has a significant negative effect on CO2 emissions. In addition, considering the disparities of energy structure, the impacts of RETI on CO2 emissions may be distinct. We, therefore, construct a panel threshold model by taking into account the distinct effect of RETI under different energy structure. We find that the effect of RETI on curbing CO2 emissions decreases with the rising of coal-dominated energy consumption structure but in contrast, this effect increases with the growing proportion of renewable energy generation. This paper provides new insight into the relationship between technological innovation and climate change. Based on these findings, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed.}, }
@article {pmid31095820, year = {2019}, author = {Porter, JR and Challinor, AJ and Henriksen, CB and Howden, SM and Martre, P and Smith, P}, title = {Invited review: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, agriculture, and food-A case of shifting cultivation and history.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {2518-2529}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14700}, pmid = {31095820}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Livestock ; }, abstract = {Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom-up and top-down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.}, }
@article {pmid31093053, year = {2018}, author = {Ridel, GM and García, JG and Fernández, MCR and Cala, DC and Rodríguez, YF and Lavastida, JEB}, title = {[The health sector in the face of disasters and climate change in CubaO setor da saúde diante de desastres e mudanças climáticas em Cuba].}, journal = {Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {e24}, pmid = {31093053}, issn = {1680-5348}, abstract = {Due to its impact on human health and its capacity to cause damage, disasters are one of the global problems that most concern the international community. However, and in spite of the efforts made by many health systems, the reduction of vulnerabilities and the lack of strategies to avoid or minimize risks have not received enough attention yet. As Cuba is located in an area of permanent danger of disasters, its health sector has accumulated considerable experience in the management of risks and in the assurance of less risky future scenarios, with active participation of the community and a planned and organized process to address the impact of climate change. This paper summarizes some of these experiences and describes the dangers, vulnerabilities, and risks of disasters in Cuba, its Civil Defense System, and planning and organization in the health sector for disaster reduction, as well as the main effects and challenges of climate change in the health system. Lessons learned and good practices support the key role of human resources to reduce vulnerabilities; the greatest challenges are to avoid or minimize risks, to advance research, to train professionals for climate change, and to optimize the organization of health systems and services in the country.}, }
@article {pmid31092905, year = {2019}, author = {Hutchins, DA and Jansson, JK and Remais, JV and Rich, VI and Singh, BK and Trivedi, P}, title = {Climate change microbiology - problems and perspectives.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {391-396}, doi = {10.1038/s41579-019-0178-5}, pmid = {31092905}, issn = {1740-1534}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Microbiota ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {The signs of climate change are undeniable, and the inevitable impact for Earth and all its inhabitants is a serious concern. Ice is melting, sea levels are rising, biodiversity is declining, precipitation has increased, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases are alarmingly high, and extreme weather conditions are becoming increasingly common. But what role do microorganisms have in this global challenge? In this Viewpoint article, several experts in the field discuss the microbial contributions to climate change and consider the effects of global warming, extreme weather, flooding and other consequences of climate change on microbial communities in the ocean and soil, on host-microbiota interactions and on the global burden of infectious diseases and ecosystem processes, and they explore open questions and research needs.}, }
@article {pmid31091494, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, Q and Zhang, X and Almendinger, JE and Huang, M and Chen, X and Leng, G and Zhou, Y and Zhao, K and Asrar, GR and Li, X}, title = {Climate change will pose challenges to water quality management in the st. Croix River basin.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {251}, number = {}, pages = {302-311}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.04.129}, pmid = {31091494}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Water Resources/*trends ; Hydrodynamics ; Minnesota ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Water Cycle ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; Water Quality/*standards ; Wisconsin ; }, abstract = {Responses of streamflow and nutrient export to changing climate conditions should be investigated for effective water quality management and pollution control. Using downscaled climate projections and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we projected future streamflow, sediment export, and riverine nutrient export in the St. Croix River Basin (SCRB) during 2020-2099. Results show substantial increases in riverine water, sediment, and nutrient load under future climate conditions, particularly under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Intensified water cycling and enhanced nutrient export will pose challenges to water quality management and affect multiple Best Management Practices (BMPs) efforts, which are aimed at reducing nutrient loads in SCRB. In addition to the physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrology, our analyses demonstrate significant reductions in ET under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Changes in plant physiology induced by climate change may markedly affect water cycling and associated sediment and nutrient export. Results of this study highlight the importance of examining climate change impacts on water and nutrient delivery for effective watershed management.}, }
@article {pmid31089453, year = {2019}, author = {Pawankar, R}, title = {Climate change, air pollution, and biodiversity in Asia Pacific: impact on allergic diseases.}, journal = {Asia Pacific allergy}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e11}, pmid = {31089453}, issn = {2233-8276}, }
@article {pmid31088668, year = {2019}, author = {Deviatkin, I and Lyu, L and Chen, S and Havukainen, J and Wang, F and Horttanainen, M and Mänttäri, M}, title = {Technical implications and global warming potential of recovering nitrogen released during continuous thermal drying of sewage sludge.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {90}, number = {}, pages = {132-140}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2019.04.031}, pmid = {31088668}, issn = {1879-2456}, mesh = {Fertilizers ; Global Warming ; Incineration ; *Nitrogen ; *Sewage ; }, abstract = {Thermal drying and consequent incineration of sewage sludge result in an absolute loss of an important macronutrient - nitrogen. To fulfill the growing food demand, humanity relies more on industrial fixation of nitrogen, primarily via the Haber-Bosch process. The present paper examines the nitrogen release during continuous thermal drying of municipal sewage sludge and its consequent recovery for fertilization. Furthermore, the possibility of nitrogen recovery from condensate is assessed. Finally, the study assesses the global warming potential of the proposed nitrogen recovery system and compares it with the baseline system manufacturing fertilizers from industrially fixed nitrogen. The results of the drying experiments showed that 0.73-1.03 g N-NH3 kg[-1] total solids of sewage sludge was released to off-gases during its continuous thermal drying under 160 °C, which corresponds to 41-58% of ionized nitrogen content in raw sewage sludge subjected to thermal drying. The global warming potential of the nitrogen recovery was 28% lower compared to that of the commercial fertilizer production of equivalent properties: 4.1 kg CO2-Equiv. kg[-1] N versus 5.7 kg CO2-Equiv. kg[-1] N. Still, the sensitivity analysis showed that the results might traverse and lead to a higher global warming potential of 6.2 kg CO2-Equiv. during the nitrogen recovery process under certain process parameters.}, }
@article {pmid31087444, year = {2019}, author = {Shilt-Moody, N and Tsai, E}, title = {Turning the tide: The shift to climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of healthcare risk management : the journal of the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {36-41}, doi = {10.1002/jhrm.21365}, pmid = {31087444}, issn = {2040-0861}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; Delivery of Health Care/*economics/*standards ; Greenhouse Gases/*economics ; *Guidelines as Topic ; Humans ; Risk Management/*standards ; United States ; }, abstract = {In the United States, a growing number of companies are taking progressive steps to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Already, more than half of all Fortune 100 companies have announced clean energy targets, signaling climate change risk reduction is becoming a top priority. Climate change is not without controversy, yet it is a real business concern among corporate executives and health care leaders alike. From fears stoked by devastating wildfires in California to a rising tide of financial hardships due to hurricane flooding in the Southeast, it seems no region is immune to Mother Nature's growing cost to business. This report addresses how health care leaders are approaching climate change initiatives across the country by examining research articles, key opinion leaders, and health care organizations on the bleeding edge of climate change reduction. In an already complex industry, health care leaders have a special responsibility to do no harm to the patients they serve and a financial responsibility to drive monetary returns for invested stakeholders. Significant cost savings, long-term risk reduction, and improved population health are a few of the benefits health care organizations around the country can gain from building a sound climate change mitigation strategy.}, }
@article {pmid31086383, year = {2019}, author = {Ramachandran, A and Palanivelu, K and Mudgal, BV and Jeganathan, A and Guganesh, S and Abinaya, B and Elangovan, A}, title = {Climate change impact on fluvial flooding in the Indian sub-basin: A case study on the Adyar sub-basin.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0216461}, pmid = {31086383}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Floods ; India ; *Models, Theoretical ; Predictive Value of Tests ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Flooding is one of the most disastrous global hazards, which has been occurring more frequently in recent times. It is observed that climate change is likely to increase the intensity and the frequency of floods and river basins have become more vulnerable to fluvial flooding. In this study, the impact of climate change on fluvial flooding was analyzed over the Adyar sub-basin. This study applied statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data in a CMIP5 dataset of IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Based on the performance to simulate the observed climate, four GCMs, namely, cesm1-cam5, mpi-esm-mr, ncar-ccsm4, and bnu-esm, for RCP 4.5 were selected for projections of the future scenario. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for the past and future scenarios were derived from the IMD-observed and GCM-projected rainfall data. Integrated flood modeling was performed with hydrologic (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (HEC-RAS) models. Finally, in order to visualize the inundation areas according to the future climate projection, flood inundation maps were prepared geospatially using the ArcGIS software. For the 100-year return period, the results predict that the peak discharge for the future climate scenario would increase by 34.3%-91.9% as compared to the present climate scenario. Similarly, the future projections show an increase in the flooded area ranging from 12.6% to 26.4% based on GCMs. This simulation helps in understanding the flood risk over the Adyar sub-basin under the changing climate and the requirement for the regulation of developmental activities over the flood-prone areas.}, }
@article {pmid31086357, year = {2019}, author = {Maibach, EW and Sarfaty, M and Mitchell, M and Gould, R}, title = {Limiting global warming to 1.5 to 2.0°C-A unique and necessary role for health professionals.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {e1002804}, pmid = {31086357}, issn = {1549-1676}, mesh = {Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Global Health ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; *Health Personnel ; Health Status ; Humans ; *Professional Role ; }, abstract = {In an Editorial, Edward Maibach and colleagues discuss the important role of health professionals in future responses to threats of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31085651, year = {2019}, author = {Kätelhön, A and Meys, R and Deutz, S and Suh, S and Bardow, A}, title = {Climate change mitigation potential of carbon capture and utilization in the chemical industry.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {23}, pages = {11187-11194}, pmid = {31085651}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Chemical production is set to become the single largest driver of global oil consumption by 2030. To reduce oil consumption and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon dioxide can be captured from stacks or air and utilized as alternative carbon source for chemicals. Here, we show that carbon capture and utilization (CCU) has the technical potential to decouple chemical production from fossil resources, reducing annual GHG emissions by up to 3.5 Gt CO2-eq in 2030. Exploiting this potential, however, requires more than 18.1 PWh of low-carbon electricity, corresponding to 55% of the projected global electricity production in 2030. Most large-scale CCU technologies are found to be less efficient in reducing GHG emissions per unit low-carbon electricity when benchmarked to power-to-X efficiencies reported for other large-scale applications including electro-mobility (e-mobility) and heat pumps. Once and where these other demands are satisfied, CCU in the chemical industry could efficiently contribute to climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid31082605, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, K and Zhang, H and Han, X and Qiu, W}, title = {Sources and burial fluxes of sedimentary organic carbon in the northern Bering Sea and the northern Chukchi Sea in response to global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {679}, number = {}, pages = {97-105}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.374}, pmid = {31082605}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Arctic and subarctic seas are the major CO2 sink areas on earth. In this study, the vertical variation characteristics of organic carbon, total nitrogen and their ratio (Corg/Nt), stable isotopes δ[13]C and δ[15]N, and BIT (branched and isoprenoid tetraether) index of GDGTs (glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) in combination with [210]Pb-dating were used to analyze the changes in the marine and terrestrial sources of organic carbon in the northern Bering Sea (site 1), western Beaufort Sea slope (site 2) and northern Chukchi Sea (site 3). Organic carbon burial fluxes (OCBF) in the context of global warming were also explored at sites 1 and 3. The results showed that organic matter in these sediments were a mixed input of marine and terrestrial sources, and the BIT index and δ[13]C of site 2 suggested that the terrestrial soil organic matter was dominant. Based on a combination of [210]Pb dating and Corg, the sedimentary OCBF at site 1 was 2.29-3.65 mg cm[-2] y[-1], and at site 3 was 0.00-0.41 mg cm[-2] y[-1]. The temperature anomalies and sea ice changes in the Arctic in the past 100 years were compared with the burial fluxes of the terrestrial organic carbon. At site 1, the results indicated that fast melting of seasonal sea ice led to earlier arrival of ice algae bloom, enhanced zooplankton feeding and reduced carbon burial from 1947 to 2010, and the sudden increase in carbon burial after 2010 was attributed to an increase in primary productivity and terrestrial organic matter input due to an accelerated melting of sea ice. There was a smaller change in marine organic carbon content in site 3, but OCBF increased after a pre-1965 decrease, mainly controlled by terrestrial organic matter input associated with temperature rising and sea ice melting during recent decades.}, }
@article {pmid31077926, year = {2019}, author = {Farjad, B and Gupta, A and Sartipizadeh, H and Cannon, AJ}, title = {A novel approach for selecting extreme climate change scenarios for climate change impact studies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {678}, number = {}, pages = {476-485}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.218}, pmid = {31077926}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {One of the main challenges in climate change impact assessment studies is selecting climate change scenarios. By focusing on selecting projected extremes in a high dimensional space, one is confronted with the shrinkage of ensemble size while preserving the projection spread. This study proposes a novel integrated computational geometry algorithm to select extreme climate change scenarios in a high dimensional space. A set of 12 prominent climate extremes indices were used (as input to the algorithm) out of the 27 core indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The ETCCDI indices were projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the period of 2081-2100 relative to the baseline period 1986-2005. The approach enables the user to shrink the initial selected ensemble into smaller sub-ensembles while still capturing a wide range of simulated changes for selected climatological variables. The conservation of the projection spread was evaluated using a robust validation method when the spread error was calculated for each simulation run. The developed algorithm was applied to three different regions where the geographical domain was narrowed-down from sub-continental (western North America) to its regional (Alberta, Canada), and local (Athabasca River basin, Alberta, Canada) subdomains. Results revealed that selected extreme scenarios can vary from one region to another within the same geographical domain in response to the spatial variation in climatic regime.}, }
@article {pmid31075953, year = {2019}, author = {Biasi, R and Brunori, E and Ferrara, C and Salvati, L}, title = {Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Phenology and Quality Traits of Vitis vinifera L.: The Contribution of Local Knowledge.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {31075953}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {Landscape 4.0 - food, wellbeing and environment//Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research, DIBAF-Department of University of Tuscia and Umbria region (Rural Development Program 2014-2020 - Measure 16. Cooperation, Sub-Measure 16.2.2/ ; }, abstract = {Developing adaptation strategies in Vitis vinifera, a crop sensitive to climate change, is crucial for resilience of traditional viticultural systems, especially in climate-vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean basin. A progressive warming is demonstrated to alter the geographical distribution of grapevine, reducing land capability for typical grapes and vine productions in most Southern European districts traditionally specialized in tree crops. Grapevine growth and reproduction under climate change require a continuous monitoring to adapt agronomic practices and strategies to global change. The present study illustrates an empirical approach grounded on a set of bio-physical indicators assessing the genotype-related response to climate variation. This approach was tested in Umbria, central Italy, to verify the response of some major international and local grapevine varieties to climate variation during a relatively long time interval (1995-2015). Long-term data for ripening time and berry quality collected in the study area were correlated to representative bioclimatic indices including Winkler, Huglin, and Cool night indicators. Results of this study highlighted the increase of air temperature (reflecting the inherent growth in thermal availability for maturation) and the alteration of precipitation patterns toward more intense precipitation. Climate variability exerted distinctive impacts on grapevine phenology depending on the related genotype. Empirical findings underline the usefulness of a permanent field monitoring of the relationship between selected climate variables and grape ripening with the aim to develop adaptive viticultural practices at farm's scale.}, }
@article {pmid31075527, year = {2019}, author = {de la Hoz, CF and Ramos, E and Puente, A and Juanes, JA}, title = {Climate change induced range shifts in seaweeds distributions in Europe.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {148}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.04.012}, pmid = {31075527}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecological Parameter Monitoring ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Europe ; Hydrodynamics ; Marine Biology/methods ; Models, Biological ; Phaeophyceae/growth &amp; development ; Rhodophyta/growth &amp; development ; Salinity ; *Seaweed/growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {There are evidences of how climate change is affecting seaweeds distribution and the ecosystems services they provide. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these impacts when managing marine areas. One of the most applied tools in recent years to deal with this are species distribution models, however there are still some challenges to solve, such as the inclusion of hydrodynamic predictors and the application of effective, transferable and user-oriented methodologies. Five species (Saccorhiza polyschides, Gelidium spinosum, Sargassum muticum, Pelvetia canaliculata and Cystoseira baccata) in Europe and 15 variables were considered. Nine of them were projected to the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-term (2040-2069) and the long term (2070-2099). Algorithms for each species were applied to generate models that were assessed by comparison of probabilities and observations (area under the curve, true skill statistics, Boyce index, sensitivity, correct classification rate), niches overlap (Schoener's D, Hellinger's I), geographical similarity (interquartile range) and ecological realism. Models built demonstrated very good predictive accuracy and sensitivity, without overfitting risk. A medium overlap in the historical and RCPs environmental conditions were obtained, therefore the models can be considered transferable and results accurate because only some isolated points were detected as outliers, corresponding to low probabilities. The areas of S. polyschides and G. spinosum have been identified to be dramatically reduced, meanwhile S. muticum and C. baccata were predicted to expand their range. P. canaliculata was expected to keep its sites of presence but with a decrease in its probability of occurrence. For all species it was remarkable the importance of hydrodynamic variables and parameters representing extreme conditions. Spatially predictions of the potential species and areas at risk are decisive for defining management strategies and resource allocation. The performance and usefulness of the approach applied in this study have been demonstrated for algae with different ecological requirements (from upper littoral to subtidal) and distributional patterns (native and invasive), therefore results can be used by marine planners with different goals: marine protected areas designation, monitoring efforts guiding, invasions risk assessment or aquaculture facilities zonation.}, }
@article {pmid31074105, year = {2019}, author = {Price, SJ and Leung, WTM and Owen, CJ and Puschendorf, R and Sergeant, C and Cunningham, AA and Balloux, F and Garner, TWJ and Nichols, RA}, title = {Effects of historic and projected climate change on the range and impacts of an emerging wildlife disease.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {2648-2660}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14651}, pmid = {31074105}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; Climate Change ; *DNA Virus Infections ; *Ranavirus ; Reptiles ; }, abstract = {The global trend of increasing environmental temperatures is often predicted to result in more severe disease epidemics. However, unambiguous evidence that temperature is a driver of epidemics is largely lacking, because it is demanding to demonstrate its role among the complex interactions between hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. Here, we apply a three-pronged approach to understand the effects of temperature on ranavirus epidemics in UK common frogs, combining in vitro, in vivo, and field studies. Each approach suggests that higher temperatures drive increasing severity of epidemics. In wild populations, ranavirosis incidents were more frequent and more severe at higher temperatures, and their frequency increased through a period of historic warming in the 1990s. Laboratory experiments using cell culture and whole animal models showed that higher temperature increased ranavirus propagation, disease incidence, and mortality rate. These results, combined with climate projections, predict severe ranavirosis outbreaks will occur over wider areas and an extended season, possibly affecting larval recruitment. Since ranaviruses affect a variety of ectothermic hosts (amphibians, reptiles, and fish), wider ecological damage could occur. Our three complementary lines of evidence present a clear case for direct environmental modulation of these epidemics and suggest management options to protect species from disease.}, }
@article {pmid31073131, year = {2019}, author = {Riris, P and Arroyo-Kalin, M}, title = {Widespread population decline in South America correlates with mid-Holocene climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6850}, pmid = {31073131}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Archaeology ; Carbon Radioisotopes/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Demography ; Humans ; Rain ; South America ; }, abstract = {Quantifying the impacts of climate change on prehistoric demography is crucial for understanding the adaptive pathways taken by human populations. Archaeologists across South America have pointed to patterns of regional abandonment during the Middle Holocene (8200 to 4200 cal BP) as evidence of sensitivity to shifts in hydroclimate over this period. We develop a unified approach to investigate demography and climate in South America and aim to clarify the extent to which evidence of local anthropic responses can be generalised to large-scale trends. We achieve this by integrating archaeological radiocarbon data and palaeoclimatic time series to show that population decline occurred coeval with the transition to the initial mid-Holocene across South America. Through the analysis of radiocarbon dates with Monte Carlo methods, we find multiple, sustained phases of downturn associated to periods of high climatic variability. A likely driver of the duration and severity of demographic turnover is the frequency of exceptional climatic events, rather than the absolute magnitude of change. Unpredictable levels of tropical precipitation had sustained negative impacts on pre-Columbian populations lasting until at least 6000 cal BP, after which recovery is evident. Our results support the inference that a demographic regime shift in the second half of the Middle Holocene were coeval with cultural practices surrounding Neotropical plant management and early cultivation, possibly acting as buffers when the wild resource base was in flux.}, }
@article {pmid31071928, year = {2019}, author = {Chang, HP and Ma, CC and Chen, HS}, title = {Climate Change and Consumer's Attitude toward Insect Food.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {31071928}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; Animals ; *Attitude ; *Climate Change ; *Consumer Behavior ; Female ; *Food ; *Food Preferences ; Humans ; *Insecta ; Intention ; Male ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {Given the influence of rising environmental awareness, food systems and security are receiving increasing international attention. Previous studies have discussed the acceptance of insect foods but have been primarily conducted in a European context. Hence, their results cannot be applied to Taiwanese consumers. Regarding this, our study is centered on the theory of planned behavior and considers environmental concern and food neophobia to discuss the effects of consumer attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control on the purchase intention toward insect food. We used purposive sampling to survey questionnaire answers face-to-face in Taichung city, Taiwan. We distributed 408 surveys of which 77.45% were used in this study. The results revealed that consumer attitudes, perceived behavioral control, and food neophobia significantly influence purchase intention, whereas subjective norms and environmental concern did not demonstrate significant relationships with purchase intention. According to these results, we suggest that businesses emphasize consumers' product experience or reduce levels of food neophobia to increase consumer interest in insect foods and improve the acceptability of such foods, thereby increasing purchase intention.}, }
@article {pmid31070715, year = {2019}, author = {Chan, EYY and Ho, JY and Hung, HHY and Liu, S and Lam, HCY}, title = {Health impact of climate change in cities of middle-income countries: the case of China.}, journal = {British medical bulletin}, volume = {130}, number = {1}, pages = {5-24}, pmid = {31070715}, issn = {1471-8391}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; China/epidemiology ; Cities/economics ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Health Impact Assessment ; Humans ; Public Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Public Health Administration ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This review examines the human health impact of climate change in China. Through reviewing available research findings under four major climate change phenomena, namely extreme temperature, altered rainfall pattern, rise of sea level and extreme weather events, relevant implications for other middle-income population with similar contexts will be synthesized.<br><br>SOURCES OF DATA: Sources of data included bilingual peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2018 in PubMed, Google Scholar and China Academic Journals Full-text Database.<br><br>AREAS OF AGREEMENT: The impact of temperature on mortality outcomes was the most extensively studied, with the strongest cause-specific mortality risks between temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The geographical focuses of the studies indicated variations in health risks and impacts of different climate change phenomena across the country.<br><br>AREAS OF CONTROVERSY: While rainfall-related studies predominantly focus on its impact on infectious and vector-borne diseases, consistent associations were not often found.<br><br>GROWING POINTS: Mental health outcomes of climate change had been gaining increasing attention, particularly in the context of extreme weather events. The number of projection studies on the long-term impact had been growing.<br><br>The lack of studies on the health implications of rising sea levels and on comorbidity and injury outcomes warrants immediate attention. Evidence is needed to understand health impacts on vulnerable populations living in growing urbanized cities and urban enclaves, in particular migrant workers. Location-specific climate-health outcome thresholds (such as temperature-mortality threshold) will be needed to support evidence-based clinical management plans and health impact mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable communities.}, }
@article {pmid31070165, year = {2019}, author = {Dhiman, RC and Singh, P and Yadav, Y and Saraswat, S and Kumar, G and Singh, RK and Ojha, VP and Joshi, BC and Singh, P}, title = {Preparedness for malaria elimination in the wake of climate change in the State of Uttarakhand (India).}, journal = {Journal of vector borne diseases}, volume = {56}, number = {1}, pages = {46-52}, doi = {10.4103/0972-9062.257774}, pmid = {31070165}, issn = {0972-9062}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles/parasitology ; *Climate Change ; Disease Eradication/*methods ; Endemic Diseases/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Humidity ; India/epidemiology ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Mosquito Vectors/parasitology ; Plasmodium vivax ; Seasons ; Sporozoites ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND &amp; OBJECTIVES: Climate change is an emerging issue particularly in the context of vector-borne diseases. A study was undertaken in Nainital and Almora districts of Uttarakhand to provide evidences of changing climatic conditions, abundance of vectors, and knocking of malaria in hilly areas.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: Longitudinal data on temperature and relative humidity were procured from Tussar Silk Centre, Bhimtal, India as well as generated using HOBO device. Monthly density of malaria vectors, their positivity for sporozoite proteins of malaria parasite and fever surveys were conducted as per the standard procedures from 2010 to 2013. Epidemiological data were procured from the State Programme Officer of Uttarakhand state.<br><br>RESULTS: It was found that the temperature has increased since 1990 resulting in extension in windows of malaria transmission, temporal distribution as well as man hour density of Anopheles culicifacies and An. fluviatilis in hilly districts of Uttarakhand state. Both the vectors were found in high density up to a maximum man hour density of 110 (An. culicifacies) and 69 (An. fluviatilis) as compared to 32 and 33, respectively during 1998. The field collected vector species were also found positive for sporozoite proteins of malaria parasites in the month of October and November. Evidence of occurrence of malaria cases was also found in areas hitherto free from malaria.<br><br>The findings reveal that Himalayan region needs attention to strengthen surveillance for malaria to identify emerging new foci of malaria transmission in view of climate change. Health education to communities about preventive measures to contain breeding of vectors and seeking timely treatment should be imparted so as to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in category-1 in the first instance.}, }
@article {pmid31069721, year = {2019}, author = {Özelsel, TJ and Sondekoppam, RV and Buro, K}, title = {The future is now-it's time to rethink the application of the Global Warming Potential to anesthesia.}, journal = {Canadian journal of anaesthesia = Journal canadien d'anesthesie}, volume = {66}, number = {11}, pages = {1291-1295}, doi = {10.1007/s12630-019-01385-w}, pmid = {31069721}, issn = {1496-8975}, mesh = {Anesthesia, Inhalation/methods ; *Anesthesiology ; Anesthetics, Inhalation/*chemistry ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Gases/chemistry ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid31068226, year = {2019}, author = {González-Rete, B and Salazar-Schettino, PM and Bucio-Torres, MI and Córdoba-Aguilar, A and Cabrera-Bravo, M}, title = {Activity of the prophenoloxidase system and survival of triatomines infected with different Trypanosoma cruzi strains under different temperatures: understanding Chagas disease in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {219}, pmid = {31068226}, issn = {1756-3305}, support = {IN216118//Programa de Apoyo a Proyectos de Investigaci&#xf3;n e Innovaci&#xf3;n Tecnol&#xf3;gica (PAPIIT)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Catechol Oxidase/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Enzyme Precursors/*metabolism ; Female ; Gastrointestinal Tract/anatomy &amp; histology/parasitology ; Insect Vectors/enzymology/parasitology ; Male ; *Temperature ; Triatoma/enzymology/*parasitology ; Trypanosoma cruzi/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Little is known about how human disease vectors will modify their life history patterns and survival capacity as a result of climate change. One case is that of Chagas disease, which has triatomine bugs and Trypanosoma cruzi as vectors and parasite, respectively. This work aimed to determine: (i) the activity of the prophenoloxidase system (prophenoloxidase and phenoloxidase activity, two indicators of immune ability) in three intestine regions (anterior midgut, posterior midgutand rectum) of the triatomine bug Meccus pallidipennis under three temperature conditions (20 °C, 30 °C and 34 °C) against two T. cruzi strains [ITRI/MX/14/CHIL (Chilpancingo) and ITRI/MX/12/MOR (Morelos)], and (ii) whether vector survival varies under these three temperatures after infection by these T. cruzi strains.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results indicate that prophenoloxidase activity was lower at higher temperatures, that the level of prophenoloxidase activity elicited by each strain was different (higher in Chilpancingo than in Morelos strains), and that prophenoloxidase activity was more intense in the anterior midgut than in the posterior midgut or rectum. Survival rates were lower in insects maintained at higher temperatures and infected by Chilpancingo strains.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that climate change could lead to lower prophenoloxidase activity and survival rates in triatomines when infected with different T. cruzi strains, which could reduce the vector capacity of M. pallidipennis.}, }
@article {pmid31067153, year = {2019}, author = {Gibson, K and Haslam, N and Kaplan, I}, title = {Distressing encounters in the context of climate change: Idioms of distress, determinants, and responses to distress in Tuvalu.}, journal = {Transcultural psychiatry}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {667-696}, doi = {10.1177/1363461519847057}, pmid = {31067153}, issn = {1461-7471}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Adolescent ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; *Culture ; Female ; Humans ; *Language ; Male ; Micronesia/ethnology ; Middle Aged ; Qualitative Research ; Stress, Psychological/*ethnology ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Across the globe there is a critical need for culturally informed and locally valid approaches to mental health assessment and intervention, particularly among disadvantaged and marginalized populations. To be optimally effective, such approaches must be informed by a sound understanding of locally relevant idioms of distress and its determinants, including those caused or exacerbated by global power disparities and structural inequities. Climate change, arising due to anthropogenic sources located predominantly in industrialized nations, is one potential determinant of distress having disproportionate adverse impacts on already marginalized populations. The present study formed part of a broader project examining the intersections of culture, climate change, and distress in the Polynesian nation of Tuvalu - a focal point of global concern over the human costs of climate change. The study explored determinants and idioms of distress and culturally prescribed responses to coping with distress. Results are based on fieldwork conducted in 2015 entailing semi-structured interviews with 16 key informants and 23 lay residents of Funafuti atoll, recruited using maximal variation purposive sampling. Findings are examined in consideration of the unfolding impacts of climate change and the threat it portends for the future, both of which were identified as salient determinants of distress, in keeping with theorized relationships between climate change and mental health. The study underscores the necessity of attending to the relationships between global forces, local cultures, and individual experiences of distress, as efforts to provide access to culturally informed social and mental health services expand globally.}, }
@article {pmid31066653, year = {2019}, author = {Kipp, A and Cunsolo, A and Gillis, D and Sawatzky, A and Harper, SL}, title = {The need for community-led, integrated and innovative monitoring programmes when responding to the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {78}, number = {2}, pages = {1517581}, pmid = {31066653}, issn = {2242-3982}, support = {//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Canada ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Geography, Medical ; Health Services Accessibility/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Inuit ; }, abstract = {In Northern Canada, climate change has led to many acute and interrelated health and environmental impacts experienced among Inuit populations. Community-based monitoring, in which community members participate in monitoring initiatives using various forms of technology, is a key strategy increasingly used to detect, monitor and respond to climate change impacts. To better understand the landscape of existing environmental and health monitoring programmes mobilising different technologies and operating in the North we conducted a review that used environmental scan methodologies to explore and contextualise these programmes. We consulted with academic researchers with experience in community-led monitoring, conducted systematic searches of grey and peer-reviewed literature, and conducted a secondary search for environment-health mobile-phone applications. Following specific criteria, we identified 18 monitoring programmes using information and communication technologies in the North, and three global monitoring mobile-phone applications, which cumulatively monitored 74 environment and health indicators. Several themes emerged, including the need for: (1) community leadership, (2) indicators of environment and/or human health and (3) innovative technology. This synthesis supports the development of community-led, environment-health monitoring programmes that use innovative technology to monitor and share information related to the health implications of climate change in and around Indigenous communities throughout the Circumpolar North.}, }
@article {pmid31064134, year = {2019}, author = {Hayes, K and Berry, P and Ebi, KL}, title = {Factors Influencing the Mental Health Consequences of Climate Change in Canada.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {31064134}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasing risks to the mental health of Canadians. Impacts from a changing climate may outstrip the ability of Canadians and their health-sustaining institutions to adapt effectively and could increase poor mental health outcomes, particularly amongst those most marginalized in society. A scoping review of literature published during 2000-2017 explored risks, impacts, and vulnerabilities related to climate change and mental health. In this commentary, the authors present a new assessment of evidence from this scoping review and highlight factors that influence the capacity to adapt to the mental health consequences of a changing climate. Findings from this assessment reveal eleven key factors that influence the capacity to adapt: social capital; sense of community; government assistance; access to resources; community preparedness; intersectoral/transdisciplinary collaboration; vulnerability and adaptation assessments; communication and outreach; mental health literacy; and culturally relevant resources. Attention to these factors by Canadian decision makers can support proactive and effective management of the mental health consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31064099, year = {2019}, author = {Bartlow, AW and Manore, C and Xu, C and Kaufeld, KA and Del Valle, S and Ziemann, A and Fairchild, G and Fair, JM}, title = {Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment.}, journal = {Veterinary sciences}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {31064099}, issn = {2306-7381}, support = {89233218CNA000001//United States Department of Energy/ ; }, abstract = {Infectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing more rapidly with climate change, and have a complex epidemiology, which may allow them to take advantage of a changing environment. Most mosquito-borne infectious diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in three genera: Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex, and the expansion of these genera is well documented. There is an urgent need to study vector-borne diseases in response to climate change and to produce a generalizable approach capable of generating risk maps and forecasting outbreaks. Here, we provide a strategy for coupling climate and epidemiological models for zoonotic infectious diseases. We discuss the complexity and challenges of data and model fusion, baseline requirements for data, and animal and human population movement. Disease forecasting needs significant investment to build the infrastructure necessary to collect data about the environment, vectors, and hosts at all spatial and temporal resolutions. These investments can contribute to building a modeling community around the globe to support public health officials so as to reduce disease burden through forecasts with quantified uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid31063502, year = {2019}, author = {Kosaka, T and Nakajima, Y and Ishii, A and Yamashita, M and Yoshida, S and Murata, M and Kato, K and Shiromaru, Y and Kato, S and Kanasaki, Y and Yoshikawa, H and Matsutani, M and Thanonkeo, P and Yamada, M}, title = {Capacity for survival in global warming: Adaptation of mesophiles to the temperature upper limit.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {e0215614}, pmid = {31063502}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Ecosystem ; Escherichia coli/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; Genome, Bacterial ; Global Warming ; High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing ; Whole Genome Sequencing ; Zymomonas/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommends keeping the increase in temperature to less than a two-degree increase by the end of the century, but the direct impact of global warming on ecosystems including microbes has not been investigated. Here we performed thermal adaptation of two species and three strains of mesophilic microbes for improvement of the survival upper limit of temperature, and the improvement was evaluated by a newly developed method. To understand the limitation and variation of thermal adaptation, experiments with mutators and by multiple cultures were performed. The results of experiments including genome sequencing and analysis of the characteristics of mutants suggest that these microbes bear a genomic potential to endure a 2-3°C rise in temperature but possess a limited variation of strategies for thermal adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31062666, year = {2019}, author = {Cauchi, JP and Correa-Velez, I and Bambrick, H}, title = {Climate change, food security and health in Kiribati: a narrative review of the literature.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1603683}, pmid = {31062666}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Micronesia ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is recognised as having a 'multiplier effect' on food insecurity and adverse health experiences of communities in the Pacific region. Islands are especially at risk due to their limited land availability, population pressures and, in the case of atolls, their low-lying topography making them vulnerable to sea level rise.<br><br>AIM: This review examines the literature describing the relationship between climate change, food security and health in Kiribati.<br><br>METHOD: A narrative review was conducted, looking at both peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed literature available online from 1 January 2008 to 14 August 2018, the search date. Sources from three databases of peer-reviewed literature, Google and additional sources from reference lists were included in the review.<br><br>RESULTS: Thirty-seven items were included in this review. These show climate change is having a noticeable impact on food security and health in Kiribati. Four themes were identified from the literature that provide different perspectives to the problem outlined.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change is a pressing concern for the government of Kiribati and communities alike, and yet the problem is worsening, not improving. Further research is required to look at effective policies and cultural perspectives to address this problem.}, }
@article {pmid31061690, year = {2019}, author = {Mashizha, TM}, title = {Adapting to climate change: Reflections of peasant farmers in Mashonaland West Province of Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {571}, pmid = {31061690}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change is projected to have negative impacts on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa and this is likely to continue for decades, unless adaptation measures are implemented. The changing climate is a global challenge to sustainable livelihoods and economic development. Peasant farmers in Zimbabwe depend entirely on rain-fed agriculture, a situation that makes agriculture and rural livelihoods vulnerable to climate change. This paper discusses the findings of the study carried out in the Zvimba District amongst peasant farmers on their knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. Semi-structured interviews, observations and document analysis were used as methodologies for data collection for the study. Purposeful sampling technique was applied to 40 peasant farmers. Qualitative data from interviews and focus group discussion were analysed using context analysis. Households acknowledged that rainfall amount has decreased over the last 30 years. Such changes have reduced agricultural productivity, and in response, communities have developed multiple adaptation strategies such as harnessing social capital, crop and livelihood diversification, engaging in small businesses and water harvesting for livestock keeping. The study concludes that there is a need to recognise the validity of indigenous knowledge and an inventory should be created for future use. The paper notes that diversification of adaptive strategies is vital for sustainable livelihood in a changing climate.<br><br>KEYWORDS: climate change; adaptation; Zimbabwe; livelihood diversification.}, }
@article {pmid31061126, year = {2019}, author = {Razgour, O and Forester, B and Taggart, JB and Bekaert, M and Juste, J and Ibáñez, C and Puechmaille, SJ and Novella-Fernandez, R and Alberdi, A and Manel, S}, title = {Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {21}, pages = {10418-10423}, pmid = {31061126}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Animals ; Chiroptera/*genetics ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting/methods ; Genetic Variation/*genetics ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species' future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population's adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.}, }
@article {pmid31058749, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {"How Can Climate Change Impact the Workplace and Worker Health?" Part 6: Operational Support-Related Responsibilities of Occupational and Environmental Medicine Experts to the Employer in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {61}, number = {7}, pages = {e317-e319}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001621}, pmid = {31058749}, issn = {1536-5948}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Medicine ; Humans ; *Occupational Health ; *Occupational Medicine ; *Workplace ; }, }
@article {pmid31058393, year = {2019}, author = {Wolf, KKE and Romanelli, E and Rost, B and John, U and Collins, S and Weigand, H and Hoppe, CJM}, title = {Company matters: The presence of other genotypes alters traits and intraspecific selection in an Arctic diatom under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {9}, pages = {2869-2884}, pmid = {31058393}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Diatoms ; Ecosystem ; Genotype ; Humans ; Phenotype ; Svalbard ; }, abstract = {Arctic phytoplankton and their response to future conditions shape one of the most rapidly changing ecosystems on the planet. We tested how much the phenotypic responses of strains from the same Arctic diatom population diverge and whether the physiology and intraspecific composition of multistrain populations differs from expectations based on single strain traits. To this end, we conducted incubation experiments with the diatom Thalassiosira hyalina under present-day and future temperature and pCO2 treatments. Six fresh isolates from the same Svalbard population were incubated as mono- and multistrain cultures. For the first time, we were able to closely follow intraspecific selection within an artificial population using microsatellites and allele-specific quantitative PCR. Our results showed not only that there is substantial variation in how strains of the same species cope with the tested environments but also that changes in genotype composition, production rates, and cellular quotas in the multistrain cultures are not predictable from monoculture performance. Nevertheless, the physiological responses as well as strain composition of the artificial populations were highly reproducible within each environment. Interestingly, we only detected significant strain sorting in those populations exposed to the future treatment. This study illustrates that the genetic composition of populations can change on very short timescales through selection from the intraspecific standing stock, indicating the potential for rapid population level adaptation to climate change. We further show that individuals adjust their phenotype not only in response to their physicochemical but also to their biological surroundings. Such intraspecific interactions need to be understood in order to realistically predict ecosystem responses to global change.}, }
@article {pmid31057586, year = {2019}, author = {Gallego-Tévar, B and Infante-Izquierdo, MD and Figueroa, E and Nieva, FJJ and Muñoz-Rodríguez, AF and Grewell, BJ and Castillo, JM}, title = {Some Like It Hot: Maternal-Switching With Climate Change Modifies Formation of Invasive Spartina Hybrids.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {484}, pmid = {31057586}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate change can induce temporary, spatial or behavioral changes in species, so that only some species can adapt to the new climatic conditions. In the case of invasive species, it is expected that they will be promoted in a context of global change, given their high tolerance to environmental factors and phenotypic plasticity. Once in the invaded range, these species can hybridize with native species thus introducing their genotype in the native biota. However, the effects that climate change will have on this process of invasion by hybridization remain unclear. We evaluated the historical establishment of the reciprocal hybrids between the native Spartina maritima and the invasive S. densiflora in the Gulf of Cadiz (SW Iberian Peninsula) and we related it to climatic changes during the period 1955-2017. Our results showed that, according to their dating based on their rate of lateral expansion rates, the establishment of S. maritima × densiflora and S. densiflora × maritima in the Gulf of Cadiz has occurred in the last two centuries and has been related to changes in air temperature and rainfall during the flowering periods of their parental species, with antagonist impacts on both hybrids. Thus, the hybrid S. densiflora × maritima has been established in years with mild ends of spring and beginning of summer when the flowering of S. maritima lengthened and its pollen production was higher, and it coincided with the beginning of the flowering period of S. densiflora. Moreover, the establishment of this hybrid was related to higher spring/summer rainfalls, probably due to the reduction in salinity in middle marshes. However, the hybrid S. maritima × densiflora, was established mainly in warmer spring/summers in which the proportion of pollen:ovule of S. maritima was reduced favoring its pollination by S. densiflora. As a consequence of the promotion of S. maritima × densiflora with climate change, the native and endangered species S. maritima would be threatened, as both taxa share the same habitat and the hybrid shows a remarkably higher competitive potential.}, }
@article {pmid31057569, year = {2019}, author = {De Ollas, C and Morillón, R and Fotopoulos, V and Puértolas, J and Ollitrault, P and Gómez-Cadenas, A and Arbona, V}, title = {Facing Climate Change: Biotechnology of Iconic Mediterranean Woody Crops.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {427}, pmid = {31057569}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The Mediterranean basin is especially sensitive to the adverse outcomes of climate change and especially to variations in rainfall patterns and the incidence of extremely high temperatures. These two concurring adverse environmental conditions will surely have a detrimental effect on crop performance and productivity that will be particularly severe on woody crops such as citrus, olive and grapevine that define the backbone of traditional Mediterranean agriculture. These woody species have been traditionally selected for traits such as improved fruit yield and quality or alteration in harvesting periods, leaving out traits related to plant field performance. This is currently a crucial aspect due to the progressive and imminent effects of global climate change. Although complete genome sequence exists for sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) and clementine (Citrus clementina), olive tree (Olea europaea) and grapevine (Vitis vinifera), the development of biotechnological tools to improve stress tolerance still relies on the study of the available genetic resources including interspecific hybrids, naturally occurring (or induced) polyploids and wild relatives under field conditions. To this respect, post-genomic era studies including transcriptomics, metabolomics and proteomics provide a wide and unbiased view of plant physiology and biochemistry under adverse environmental conditions that, along with high-throughput phenotyping, could contribute to the characterization of plant genotypes exhibiting physiological and/or genetic traits that are correlated to abiotic stress tolerance. The ultimate goal of precision agriculture is to improve crop productivity, in terms of yield and quality, making a sustainable use of land and water resources under adverse environmental conditions using all available biotechnological tools and high-throughput phenotyping. This review focuses on the current state-of-the-art of biotechnological tools such as high throughput -omics and phenotyping on grapevine, citrus and olive and their contribution to plant breeding programs.}, }
@article {pmid31056056, year = {2019}, author = {Bebber, DP}, title = {Climate change effects on Black Sigatoka disease of banana.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1775}, pages = {20180269}, pmid = {31056056}, issn = {1471-2970}, support = {BB/N020847/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Ascomycota/physiology ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; Models, Statistical ; Musa/*microbiology ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has significantly altered species distributions in the wild and has the potential to affect the interactions between pests and diseases and their human, animal and plant hosts. While several studies have projected changes in disease distributions in the future, responses to historical climate change are poorly understood. Such analyses are required to dissect the relative contributions of climate change, host availability and dispersal to the emergence of pests and diseases. Here, we model the influence of climate change on the most damaging disease of a major tropical food plant, Black Sigatoka disease of banana. Black Sigatoka emerged from Asia in the late twentieth Century and has recently completed its invasion of Latin American and Caribbean banana-growing areas. We parametrize an infection model with published experimental data and drive the model with hourly microclimate data from a global climate reanalysis dataset. We define infection risk as the sum of the number of modelled hourly spore cohorts that infect a leaf over a time interval. The model shows that infection risk has increased by a median of 44.2% across banana-growing areas of Latin America and the Caribbean since the 1960s, due to increasing canopy wetness and improving temperature conditions for the pathogen. Thus, while increasing banana production and global trade have probably facilitated Black Sigatoka establishment and spread, climate change has made the region increasingly conducive for plant infection. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.}, }
@article {pmid31052196, year = {2019}, author = {Gao, D and Xie, M and Chen, X and Wang, T and Zhan, C and Ren, J and Liu, Q}, title = {Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Surface Ozone during Summer in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {31052196}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; China ; Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; Ozone/*analysis ; Rivers ; Seasons ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Future climate change can impact ozone concentrations by changing regional meteorological factors related to ozone (O3) pollution. To better understand the variations of meteorological factors and their effects on O3 formation processes under future climate conditions, we model the present and the future meteorology and air quality in summer over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry module (WRF/Chem), which is driven by the outputs of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). The simulations predict that solar radiation, 2-m air temperature, and wind speed increase in the daytime over most of the YRD region. Absolute humidity and precipitation increase in the north and decrease in the south, while the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) has an opposite change pattern displaying a decrease in the north and an increase in the south. The southerly wind will be strengthened in the daytime. At night, the change patterns of the meteorological factors are similar to the daytime but with small variations. Meanwhile, O3 and its precursors all increase in the north and decrease in the south. The increases of NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOC), and CO are related with the decreases of PBLH and the input effect of stronger southerly wind, while the decreases are attributed to the output effect of the stronger southerly wind. During the daytime, the increase of surface O3 in the north is dominated by the chemical processes related with the increases of solar radiation, air temperature, and O3 precursors. The decrease of surface O3 in the south is mainly caused by the transport process changing with the strengthened southerly wind. At night, the surface O3 changing the amplitude is less than the daytime. The less O3 variations at night can be attributed to an O3 titration reaction with NO, the changes in NOx concentrations, and the increases of nocturnal PBLH. With the aid of H2O2/HNO3, O3 formation in the YRD region is found to be easily affected by NOx in the future. The findings can help to understand the changing trend of O3 in the YRD region and can propose reasonable pollution control policies.}, }
@article {pmid31051384, year = {2019}, author = {Duane, A and Aquilué, N and Canelles, Q and Morán-Ordoñez, A and De Cáceres, M and Brotons, L}, title = {Adapting prescribed burns to future climate change in Mediterranean landscapes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {677}, number = {}, pages = {68-83}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.348}, pmid = {31051384}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Fire regimes are shifting or are expected to do so under global change. Current fire suppression is not able to control all wildfires, and its capability to do so might be compromised under harsher climate conditions. Alternative fire management strategies may allow to counteract predicted fire trends, but we lack quantitative tools to evaluate their potential effectiveness at the landscape scale. Here, we sought to quantify changes in fire regimes induced after the implementation of different fire management strategies. We developed and applied a new version of the model MEDFIRE in Catalonia (Mediterranean region of ~32,000 km[2] in NE Spain). We first projected burnt area from 2016 to 2100 resulting from climate change under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario of HadGEM-CC model and under current fire suppression levels. We then evaluated the impacts of four fire management strategies: 'Let it burn', fixed effort of prescribed burning with two different spatial allocations, and adaptive prescribed burning dynamically adjusting efforts according to recent past fires. Results predicted the emergence of novel climates associated with similar barometric configurations to current conditions but with higher temperatures (i.e. hot wind events). These novel climates led to an increase in burnt area, which was partially counteracted by negative fire-vegetation feedbacks. All prescribed burning scenarios decreased the amount of high-intensity fires and extreme fire events. The 'Let it burn' strategy, although less costly, was not able to reduce the extent of high-intensity fires. The adaptive prescribed burning scenario resulted in the most cost-efficient strategy. Our results provide quantitative evidence of fire management effectiveness, and bring to light key insights that could guide the design of fire policies fit for future novel climate conditions. We propose adaptive landscape management focused on the reduction of fire negative impacts rather than on the elimination of this disturbance from the system.}, }
@article {pmid31051367, year = {2019}, author = {Luo, M and Liu, T and Meng, F and Duan, Y and Bao, A and Xing, W and Feng, X and De Maeyer, P and Frankl, A}, title = {Identifying climate change impacts on water resources in Xinjiang, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {676}, number = {}, pages = {613-626}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.297}, pmid = {31051367}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water resources have an important role in maintaining ecological fuctions and sustaining social and economic development. This is especially true in arid and semi-arid areas, where climate change has a large impact on water resources, such as in Xinjiang, China. Using a combination of precipitation and temperature bias correction methods, we analyzed projected changes in different hydrological components in nine high-alpine catchments distributed in Xinjiang using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The impacts of elevation, area and aspect of the catchments were analyzed. The results suggested an overall warming and wetting trend for all nine catchments in the near future, with the exception of summer precipitation decreasing in some catchments. The total runoff discharge, evapotranspiration and snow/ice melting will generally increase. Warming temperature plays a more important role in the changes of each hydrological component than increasing precipitation. However, northern Xinjiang was more sensitive to predicted precipitation changes than southern Xinjiang. These results also indicate that the overall increases in water resources are not sustainable, and the impacts of climate change are associated with the elevation, area and slope aspect of the catchments.}, }
@article {pmid31050681, year = {2019}, author = {Bi, K and Linderoth, T and Singhal, S and Vanderpool, D and Patton, JL and Nielsen, R and Moritz, C and Good, JM}, title = {Temporal genomic contrasts reveal rapid evolutionary responses in an alpine mammal during recent climate change.}, journal = {PLoS genetics}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e1008119}, pmid = {31050681}, issn = {1553-7404}, support = {S10 RR029668/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; S10 RR027303/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; R01 HD073439/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; T32 HG000047/HG/NHGRI NIH HHS/United States ; R01 GM098536/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Alleles ; Altitude ; Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Arachidonate 15-Lipoxygenase/*genetics ; Biological Evolution ; Climate Change ; Gene Expression ; Gene Flow ; Gene Frequency ; *Genetics, Population/history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Hypoxia/genetics ; Sciuridae/classification/*genetics ; Species Specificity ; Exome Sequencing ; }, abstract = {Many species have experienced dramatic changes in their abundance and distribution during recent climate change, but it is often unclear whether such ecological responses are accompanied by evolutionary change. We used targeted exon sequencing of 294 museum specimens (160 historic, 134 modern) to generate independent temporal genomic contrasts spanning a century of climate change (1911-2012) for two co-distributed chipmunk species: an endemic alpine specialist (Tamias alpinus) undergoing severe range contraction and a stable mid-elevation species (T. speciosus). Using a novel analytical approach, we reconstructed the demographic histories of these populations and tested for evidence of recent positive directional selection. Only the retracting species showed substantial population genetic fragmentation through time and this was coupled with positive selection and substantial shifts in allele frequencies at a gene, Alox15, involved in regulation of inflammation and response to hypoxia. However, these rapid population and gene-level responses were not detected in an analogous temporal contrast from another area where T. alpinus has also undergone severe range contraction. Collectively, these results highlight that evolutionary responses may be variable and context dependent across populations, even when they show seemingly synchronous ecological shifts. Our results demonstrate that temporal genomic contrasts can be used to detect very recent evolutionary responses within and among contemporary populations, even in the face of complex demographic changes. Given the wealth of specimens archived in natural history museums, comparative analyses of temporal population genomic data have the potential to improve our understanding of recent and ongoing evolutionary responses to rapidly changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid31050235, year = {2019}, author = {Mathis, M and Briand, S}, title = {[Climate change, epidemics and the importance of travel and tropical medicine].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {15}, number = {649}, pages = {898-900}, pmid = {31050235}, issn = {1660-9379}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Epidemics ; Mosquito Vectors ; *Travel ; Tropical Climate ; *Tropical Medicine ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the factors explaining the increased occurrence of epidemics, their geographical spread as well as their increased severity and broader impact. Climate change makes the environment more favourable for pathogens and their proliferation, as well as for vectors of infectious diseases (such as mosquitoes). Furthermore, the globalisation and intensified travel and trade require international cooperation for epidemic response and training of health professional on emerging infectious risks.}, }
@article {pmid31049162, year = {2019}, author = {Nhamo, G and Muchuru, S}, title = {Climate adaptation in the public health sector in Africa: Evidence from United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Communications.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {644}, pmid = {31049162}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change has potential to affect human health in various ways. Extreme temperatures and cold both result in deaths, while the changing habitats favouring the breeding of vectors could result in the spread of diseases such as malaria, cholera and typhus. This article reviews climate change adaptation measures in the African public health sector. The evidence is drawn from National Communications of 21 countries as submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This article combines the literature review and grounded theory approaches with data obtained from the UNFCCC National Communications. Among key adaptation measures emerging from the work are weather-based forecasting and early warning systems, public education and awareness, putting in place appropriate policies, surveillance, research and monitoring as well as improving public health infrastructure and technology. The study recommends that African nations should commit to address health impacts of climate change through the implementation of appropriate adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid31049161, year = {2019}, author = {Zwane, EM}, title = {Impact of climate change on primary agriculture, water sources and food security in Western Cape, South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {562}, pmid = {31049161}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is undoubtedly one of the biggest crises that humanity is facing today. There is a robust scientific consensus that human-induced climate change is occurring not only in the Western Cape but around the world. The objective of this research was to assess the impact of climate change on primary agriculture and food security. The paper is based on a literature review. A variety of literature reviews, for example, 11 government reports and 21 journal articles including experience outside Western Cape, were consulted to enrich the local experience regarding the impact of climate change on agriculture. The results indicated that many dams had low water levels (40%) during 2016/2017, which reduced crop yields including grapes. Droughts, which affected both smallholder and commercial farmers, are now a common phenomenon. Livestock production has declined over time, with small stock, the beef and dairy industry being the most affected. The paper concludes by highlighting climate adaptation and mitigation interventions and strategies for both crops and livestock production in the Western Cape. The major recommendations included scaling up on the use of organic matter to avoid burning and creating gas emissions to the atmosphere, the effective use of livestock manure and the use of appropriate and adaptable seed varieties, managing the manure of the livestock to assist in mulching to reduce water loss through evaporation and using adaptable seeds. Keywords: climate change; impact; mitigation; primary agriculture; adaptation; drought.}, }
@article {pmid31041921, year = {2019}, author = {Yadollahie, M}, title = {The Flood in Iran: A Consequence of the Global Warming?.}, journal = {The international journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {54-56}, pmid = {31041921}, issn = {2008-6814}, }
@article {pmid31035620, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Qin, Y}, title = {The Response of Net Primary Production to Climate Change: A Case Study in the 400 mm Annual Precipitation Fluctuation Zone in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {31035620}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Linear Models ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The regions in China that intersect the 400 mm annual precipitation line are especially ecologically sensitive and extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic activities. However, in the context of climate change, the response of vegetation Net Primary Production (NPP) in this region has not been scientifically studied in depth. NPP suffers from the comprehensive effect of multiple climatic factors, and how to eliminate the effect of interfering variables in the correlation analysis of NPP and target variables (temperature or precipitation) is the major challenge in the study of NPP influencing factors. The correlation coefficient between NPP and target variable was calculated by ignoring other variables that also had a large impact on NPP. This increased the uncertainty of research results. Therefore, in this study, the second-order partial correlation analysis method was used to analyze the correlation between NPP and target variables by controlling other variables. This can effectively decrease the uncertainty of analysis results. In this paper, the univariate linear regression, coefficient of variation, and Hurst index estimation were used to study the spatial and temporal variations in NPP and analyze whether the NPP seasonal and annual variability will persist into the future. The results show the following: (i) The spatial distribution of NPP correlated with precipitation and had a gradually decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. From 2000 to 2015, the NPP in the study area had a general upward trend, with a small variation in its range. (ii) Areas with negative partial correlation coefficients between NPP and precipitation are consistent with the areas with more abundant water resources. The partial correlation coefficient between the NPP and the Land Surface Temperature (LST) was positive for 52.64% of the total study area. Finally, the prediction of the persistence of NPP variation into the future showed significant differences on varying time scales. On an annual scale, NPP was predicted to persist for 46% of the study area. On a seasonal scale, NPP in autumn was predicted to account for 49.92%, followed by spring (25.67%), summer (13.40%), and winter (6.75%).}, }
@article {pmid31035418, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, H and Liu, B and Zhou, D and Wu, Z and Wang, T}, title = {Asymmetric Soil Warming under Global Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {31035418}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Seasons ; *Soil ; Sunlight ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Daily surface soil temperature data from 360 weather stations in China during 1962-2011 were retrieved and analyzed. The data revealed two aspects of asymmetric soil warming. Firstly, there was asymmetry between day and night in terms of increases in soil temperature. The daily maximum surface soil temperature (S T max) and daily minimum surface soil temperature (S T min) increased at rates of 0.031 and 0.055 °C/year over the 50-year interval, respectively. As a consequence of the more rapid increases in S T min , the soil diurnal temperature range (SDTR) decreased at most stations (average rate of -0.025 °C/year), with the most profound decrease in winter (-0.08 °C/year). The solar duration (SD) was positively related to SDTR and is regarded as the key underlying cause of the decreasing SDTR. Secondly, there was asymmetry between the soil and air in the temperature increase. The differences between soil and air temperature (T D) were highest in summer (2.76 °C) and smallest in winter (1.55 °C), which decreased by 0.3 °C over the study interval, this meant agricultural practice plans based on air temperature alone may be severely limited. The difference between soil temperature and air temperature reduces at night. This would facilitate the wintering of perennials in areas near the zero-contour line.}, }
@article {pmid31032967, year = {2019}, author = {Milićević, D and Petronijević, R and Petrović, Z and Đjinović-Stojanović, J and Jovanović, J and Baltić, T and Janković, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on aflatoxin M1 contamination of raw milk with special focus on climate conditions in Serbia.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {99}, number = {11}, pages = {5202-5210}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.9768}, pmid = {31032967}, issn = {1097-0010}, mesh = {Aflatoxin M1/*analysis/metabolism ; Animal Feed/analysis ; Animals ; Aspergillus/metabolism ; Cattle ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/chemistry/*microbiology ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Food Contamination/analysis ; Food Safety ; Milk/*chemistry ; Models, Biological ; Principal Component Analysis ; Serbia ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impact of climate change has been identified as an emerging issue worldwide owing to potential effects that can provoke changes in the nature and occurrence of food safety hazards. Mycotoxins are a group of naturally occurring toxic substances produced by several genera of filamentous fungi, among which, primarily aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxins, trichothecenes and zearalenone are of the greatest concern owing to their negative impact on human health, animal productivity and international trade.<br><br>RESULTS: Extreme weather conditions such as floods and droughts which have not occurred previously in Serbia may be supporting factors for contamination of crops by various species of toxigenic fungi and their related mycotoxins. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) and multivariate analyses were used as powerful tools allowing better understanding of the range of climate factors impacting on crop contamination by mycotoxins. Among the selected environmental variables, temperature and moisture significantly influenced aflatoxin production. Recent drought and then flooding confirmed that Serbia is one of the few European countries with very high risk exposure to natural hazards, as well as that mycotoxins are one of the foodborne hazards most susceptible to climate change. Thus climate change effects on mycotoxigenic fungi and mycotoxin contamination are now receiving scientific attention, especially from a risk analysis perspective.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This paper evaluates the available information on the influence of climate change on mycotoxin contamination, especially aflatoxin M1 (AFM1). In addition, this investigation should beneficially contribute to more accurate predictions of the regional risk from mycotoxins in future decades. &#xa9; 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid31031955, year = {2019}, author = {Griffith, AW and Harke, MJ and DePasquale, E and Berry, DL and Gobler, CJ}, title = {The harmful algae, Cochlodinium polykrikoides and Aureococcus anophagefferens, elicit stronger transcriptomic and mortality response in larval bivalves (Argopecten irradians) than climate change stressors.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {4931-4948}, pmid = {31031955}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global ocean change threatens marine life, yet a mechanistic understanding of how organisms are affected by specific stressors is poorly understood. Here, we identify and compare the unique and common transcriptomic responses of an organism experiencing widespread fisheries declines, Argopecten irradians (bay scallop) exposed to multiple stressors including high pCO2, elevated temperature, and two species of harmful algae, Cochlodinium (aka Margalefidinium) polykrikoides and Aureococcus anophagefferens using high-throughput sequencing (RNA-seq). After 48 hr of exposure, scallop transcriptomes revealed distinct expression profiles with larvae exposed to harmful algae (C. polykrikoides and A. anophagefferens) displaying broader responses in terms of significantly and differentially expressed (DE) transcripts (44,922 and 4,973; respectively) than larvae exposed to low pH or elevated temperature (559 and 467; respectively). Patterns of expression between larvae exposed to each harmful algal treatment were, however, strikingly different with larvae exposed to A. anophagefferens displaying large, significant declines in the expression of transcripts (n = 3,615; 87% of DE transcripts) whereas exposure to C. polykrikoides increased the abundance of transcripts, more than all other treatments combined (n = 43,668; 97% of DE transcripts). Larvae exposed to each stressor up-regulated a common set of 21 genes associated with protein synthesis, cellular metabolism, shell growth, and membrane transport. Larvae exposed to C. polykrikoides displayed large increases in antioxidant-associated transcripts, whereas acidification-exposed larvae increased abundance of transcripts associated with shell formation. After 10 days of exposure, each harmful algae caused declines in survival that were significantly greater than all other treatments. Collectively, this study reveals the common and unique transcriptional responses of bivalve larvae to stressors that promote population declines within coastal zones, providing insight into the means by which they promote mortality as well as traits possessed by bay scallops that enable potential resistance.}, }
@article {pmid31031931, year = {2019}, author = {Hyseni, C and Garrick, RC}, title = {The role of glacial-interglacial climate change in shaping the genetic structure of eastern subterranean termites in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {4621-4636}, pmid = {31031931}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The eastern subterranean termite, Reticulitermes flavipes, currently inhabits previously glaciated regions of the northeastern U.S., as well as the unglaciated southern Appalachian Mountains and surrounding areas. We hypothesized that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations have influenced the distribution of R. flavipes, and thus the evolutionary history of the species. We estimated contemporary and historical geographic distributions of R. flavipes by constructing Species Distribution Models (SDM). We also inferred the evolutionary and demographic history of the species using mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I and II) and nuclear (endo-beta-1,4-glucanase) DNA sequence data. To do this, genetic populations were delineated using Bayesian spatial-genetic clustering, competing hypotheses about population divergence were assessed using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and changes in population size were estimated using Bayesian skyline plots. SDMs identified areas in the north with suitable habitat during the transition from the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum, as well as an expanding distribution from the mid-Holocene to the present. Genetic analyses identified three geographically cohesive populations, corresponding with northern, central, and southern portions of the study region. Based on ABC analyses, divergence between the Northern and Southern populations was the oldest, estimated to have occurred 64.80 thousand years ago (kya), which corresponds with the timing of available habitat in the north. The Central and Northern populations diverged in the mid-Holocene, 8.63 kya, after which the Central population continued to expand. Accordingly, phylogeographic patterns of R. flavipes in the southern Appalachians appear to have been strongly influenced by glacial-interglacial climate change.<br><br>OPEN RESEARCH BADGES: This article has been awarded Open Materials, Open Data Badges. All materials and data are publicly accessible via the Open Science Framework at https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.5hr7f31.}, }
@article {pmid31031283, year = {2019}, author = {Lee, AM}, title = {Citizen Scientists in Antarctica: FjordPhyto Approach to Understand Climate Change Affected Environments.}, journal = {Narrative inquiry in bioethics}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {21-24}, doi = {10.1353/nib.2019.0010}, pmid = {31031283}, issn = {2157-1740}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; *Citizen Science ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Narration ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton ; Research ; }, }
@article {pmid31030319, year = {2019}, author = {Nagai, S and Saitoh, TM and Yoshitake, S}, title = {Cultural ecosystem services provided by flowering of cherry trees under climate change: a case study of the relationship between the periods of flowering and festivals.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {63}, number = {8}, pages = {1051-1058}, pmid = {31030319}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {2017-F-002//Joint Usage/Research Grant from the River Basin Research Center, Gifu University/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Flowers ; Holidays ; Japan ; Seasons ; Trees ; }, abstract = {In Japan, cherry blossoms are an important tourism resource and provide many cultural ecosystem service benefits. Under future warming conditions, we will require adaptions such as changing the timing of flower festivals to account for changes in the flowering phenology. In this study, we evaluated the coincidence between the flowering phenology of cherry blossoms and the associated festival periods in two Japanese cities under past, recent, and future climate conditions. We examined the situation in Shinhidaka, where the flower festival period changes every year, and Takayama, where the festival period is fixed to coincide with a shrine's annual spring festival. Currently, the average dates of beginning of flowering (more than four or five flowers open in an index tree; ~BBCH60) and full bloom (equal to or more than 80% of flowers open in an index tree; after BBCH65) in Shinhidaka (day of year (DOY) 126 and 130) are later than the long national holiday of Golden Week (DOY 119 to 125). The respective dates in Takayama (DOY 106 and 111, respectively) are later than the local a festival period (DOY 104 and 105). Under a scenario of 1.0 to 2.0 °C warming, the full blooming dates in Shinhidaka will coincide with Golden Week, whereas under 1.0 to 1.5 °C warming, the full blooming dates in Takayama will coincide with the spring festival period. Thus, moderate warming may increase the value of cherry blossoms to the tourism industry. Under more than 3.5 °C warming in Shinhidaka and 2.5 °C warming in Takayama, however, cherry blossoms will have already dropped by Golden Week and the spring festival period, respectively, suggesting that greater warming may decrease the value of this tourism resource.}, }
@article {pmid31029890, year = {2019}, author = {Nasir, MA and Duc Huynh, TL and Xuan Tram, HT}, title = {Role of financial development, economic growth &amp; foreign direct investment in driving climate change: A case of emerging ASEAN.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {242}, number = {}, pages = {131-141}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.112}, pmid = {31029890}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Economic Development ; Environmental Pollution ; Investments ; }, abstract = {In the context of remarkable economic growth and financial development in the emerging economies of East Asia, this paper attempts to shed light on the ecological consequences (CO2 emission) of economic growth, foreign direct investment and financial development in the selected ASEAN-5 economies. Drawing on the data from 1982 to 2014, we employed a set of quantitative techniques for panel data analysis which entailed Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) approaches. Our findings indicate that financial and economic development, as well as FDI, have a statistically significant long-run co-integrating relationship with environmental degradation (CO[2] emissions) in the under analysis economies. It showed that in ASEAN-5 countries, economic growth, financial development and FDI leads to an increase in environmental degradation. The quadratic term for economic growth showed a negative impact on environmental degradation i.e. Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Our key findings manifest and emphasise the importance of appropriate policies for more inclusive economic and financial development and sustainable foreign direct investment which does not impede on the environment.}, }
@article {pmid31029753, year = {2019}, author = {Varo, R and Rodó, X and Bassat, Q}, title = {Climate change, cyclones and cholera - Implications for travel medicine and infectious diseases.}, journal = {Travel medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {6-7}, doi = {10.1016/j.tmaid.2019.04.007}, pmid = {31029753}, issn = {1873-0442}, mesh = {Cholera/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Humans ; Travel Medicine/*methods ; Vibrio cholerae ; }, }
@article {pmid31029138, year = {2019}, author = {Gronlund, CJ and Cameron, L and Shea, C and O'Neill, MS}, title = {Assessing the magnitude and uncertainties of the burden of selected diseases attributable to extreme heat and extreme precipitation under a climate change scenario in Michigan for the period 2041-2070.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {40}, pmid = {31029138}, issn = {1476-069X}, support = {EH001124/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; K99ES026198/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES017885/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; UL1 TR002240/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; 2UL1TR000433-06/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; T42 OH008455-09/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; K99 ES026198/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R00 ES026198/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cross-Over Studies ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Geography ; Incidence ; Michigan/epidemiology ; Models, Theoretical ; *Morbidity ; *Rain ; Risk Assessment ; *Snow ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Extreme heat (EH) and extreme precipitation (EP) events are expected to increase with climate change in many parts of the world. Characterizing the potential future morbidity and mortality burden of EH and EP and associated costs, as well as uncertainties in the estimates, can identify areas for public health intervention and inform adaptation strategies. We demonstrate a burden of disease and uncertainty assessment using data from Michigan, USA, and provide approaches for deriving these estimates for locations lacking certain data inputs.<br><br>METHODS: Case-crossover analysis adapted from previous Michigan-specific modeling was used to characterize the historical EH-mortality relationship by county poverty rate and age group. Historical EH-associated hospitalization and emergency room visit risks from the literature were adapted to Michigan. In the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP software, we used a novel approach, with multiple spatially-varying exposures, to estimate all non-accidental mortality and morbidity occurring on EH days (EH days; days where maximum temperature 32.2-35 C or&#x2009;>&#x2009;35 C) and EP days. We did so for two time periods: the "historical" period (1971-2000), and the "projected" period (2041-2070), by county.<br><br>RESULTS: The rate of all non-accidental mortality associated with EH days increased from 0.46/100,000 persons historically to 2.9/100,000 in the projected period, for 240 EH-attributable deaths annually. EH-associated ED visits increased from 12/100,000 persons to 68/100,000 persons, for 7800 EH-attributable emergency department visits. EP-associated ED visits increased minimally from 1.7 to 1.9/100,000 persons. Mortality and morbidity were highest among those aged 65+ (91% of all deaths). Projected health costs are dominated by EH-associated mortality ($280 million) and EH-associated emergency department visits ($14 million). A variety of sources contribute to a moderate-to-high degree of uncertainty around the point estimates, including uncertainty in the magnitude of climate change, population composition, baseline health rates, and exposure-response estimates.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The approach applied here showed that health burden due to climate may significantly rise for all Michigan counties by midcentury. The costs to health care and uncertainties in the estimates, given the potential for substantial attributable burden, provide additional information to guide adaptation measures for EH and EP.}, }
@article {pmid31028372, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Curbing global warming could save US$20 trillion.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {557}, number = {7706}, pages = {467-468}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05219-5}, pmid = {31028372}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid31027461, year = {2019}, author = {Walter, S and Lörcher, I and Brüggemann, M}, title = {Scientific networks on Twitter: Analyzing scientists' interactions in the climate change debate.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {28}, number = {6}, pages = {696-712}, pmid = {31027461}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Scientific issues requiring urgent societal actions-such as climate change-have increased the need for communication and interaction between scientists and other societal actors. Social media platforms facilitate such exchanges. This study investigates who scientists interact with on Twitter, and whether their communication differs when engaging with actors beyond the scientific community. We focus on the climate change debate on Twitter and combine network analysis with automated content analysis. The results show that scientists interact most intensively with their peers, but also communication beyond the scientific community is important. The findings suggest that scientists adjust their communication style to their audience: They use more neutral language when communicating with other scientists, and more words expressing negative emotions when communicating with journalists, civil society, and politicians. Likewise, they stress certainty more when communicating with politicians, indicating that scientists use language strategically when communicating beyond the scientific community.}, }
@article {pmid31027434, year = {2019}, author = {Levy, BS}, title = {Increasing Risks for Armed Conflict: Climate Change, Food and Water Insecurity, and Forced Displacement.}, journal = {International journal of health services : planning, administration, evaluation}, volume = {49}, number = {4}, pages = {682-691}, doi = {10.1177/0020731419845249}, pmid = {31027434}, issn = {1541-4469}, mesh = {*Armed Conflicts ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Health Status ; Humans ; *Refugees ; Risk Factors ; Social Medicine ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid31025468, year = {2019}, author = {Godde, C and Dizyee, K and Ash, A and Thornton, P and Sloat, L and Roura, E and Henderson, B and Herrero, M}, title = {Climate change and variability impacts on grazing herds: Insights from a system dynamics approach for semi-arid Australian rangelands.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {9}, pages = {3091-3109}, pmid = {31025468}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Livestock ; }, abstract = {Grazing livestock are an important source of food and income for millions of people worldwide. Changes in mean climate and increasing climate variability are affecting grasslands' carrying capacity, thus threatening the livelihood of millions of people as well as the health of grassland ecosystems. Compared with cropping systems, relatively little is known about the impact of such climatic changes on grasslands and livestock productivity and the adaptation responses available to farmers. In this study, we analysed the relationship between changes in mean precipitation, precipitation variability, farming practices and grazing cattle using a system dynamics approach for a semi-arid Australian rangeland system. We found that forage production and animal stocking rates were significantly affected by drought intensities and durations as well as by long-term climate trends. After a drought event, herd size recovery times ranged from years to decades in the absence of proactive restocking through animal purchases. Decreases in the annual precipitation means or increases in the interannual (year-to-year) and intra-annual (month-to-month) precipitation variability, all reduced herd sizes. The contribution of farming practices versus climate effect on herd dynamics varied depending on the herd characteristics considered. Climate contributed the most to the variance in stocking rates, followed by forage productivity levels and feeding supplementation practices (with or without urea and molasses). While intensification strategies and favourable climates increased long-term herd sizes, they also resulted in larger reductions in animal numbers during droughts and raised total enteric methane emissions. In the face of future climate trends, the grazing sector will need to increase its adaptability. Understanding which farming strategies can be beneficial, where, and when, as well as the enabling mechanisms required to implement them, will be critical for effectively improving rangelands and the livelihoods of pastoralists worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid31025387, year = {2020}, author = {Inouye, DW}, title = {Effects of climate change on alpine plants and their pollinators.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1469}, number = {1}, pages = {26-37}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14104}, pmid = {31025387}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Plants ; *Pollination ; Tundra ; }, abstract = {Alpine environments are among the habitats most strongly affected by climate change, and consequently their unique plants and pollinators are faced with the challenge of adapting or going extinct. Changes in temperature and precipitation affect snowpack and snowmelt, resulting in changes in the growing season in this environment where plant growth and pollinator activity are constrained to the snow-free season, which can vary significantly across the landscape if there is significant topographic complexity. As in other ecosystems, the resulting changes in phenology are not uniform among species, creating the potential for altered and new interspecific interactions. New plant and animal species are arriving as lower altitude species move up with warming temperatures, introducing new competitors and generating changes in plant-pollinator interactions. Repeating historical surveys, taking advantage of museum collections, and using new technology will facilitate our understanding of how plants and pollinators are responding to the changing alpine environment.}, }
@article {pmid31024763, year = {2019}, author = {Li, J and Wu, J and Peng, K and Fan, G and Yu, H and Wang, W and He, Y}, title = {Simulating the effects of climate change across the geographical distribution of two medicinal plants in the genus Nardostachys.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6730}, pmid = {31024763}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The medicinal plants of Radix et Rhizoma Nardostachyos include Nardostachys jatamansi and N. chinensis. Traditionally, the two plants have been used to treat many diseases. Because of their special aroma, they are also commonly used in the food and cosmetics industry. Recently, N. jatamansi and N. chinensis have been overexploited due to their economic importance, resulting in a sharp decline in their wild resources. Predicting potential distributions of the genus Nardostachys under different climate scenarios and understanding its preferred habitat are of great significance for their conservation, artificial cultivation, and assessment of their value.<br><br>METHODS: The Maxent model was used to predict the potential geographical distributions of the genus Nardostachys under current and future climatic conditions based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s. These data were used to study the effects of climate variables.<br><br>RESULTS: The results show that the potential distribution of the two species will increase, thus more suitable habitats will be present in China. The suitable habitat for N. chinensis presents a relatively stable growth compared to N. jatamansi. In addition, precipitation plays a crucial role in modeling the effects of climate change on the genus Nardostachys. This study provides theoretical guidance for the cultivation of N. chinensis.}, }
@article {pmid31023518, year = {2019}, author = {Bouvet, L and Chassard, D}, title = {Fighting global warming: it's time to reduce waste!.}, journal = {International journal of obstetric anesthesia}, volume = {39}, number = {}, pages = {150-151}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijoa.2019.03.001}, pmid = {31023518}, issn = {1532-3374}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Medical Waste Disposal ; Transportation ; }, }
@article {pmid31022612, year = {2019}, author = {Tong, S and Ebi, K}, title = {Preventing and mitigating health risks of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {9-13}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.04.012}, pmid = {31022612}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution ; Humans ; Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Global environmental changes, driven by the consequences of human activities and population growth, are altering our planet in ways that pose current threats to human health, with the magnitude of these threats projected to increase over coming decades if additional, proactive actions are not taken. Global changes, unprecedented in their geospatial and temporal scales, include climate change, marine pollution, ozone layer depletion, soil degradation, and urbanization. Climate change is the best studied. The health risks of a changing climate will become increasingly urgent as climate change affects the quantity and quality of food and water, increases air pollution, alters the distribution of vectors/pathogens and disease transmission dynamics, and reduces eco-physical buffering against extreme weather and climate events. Health systems urgently need to be improved to effectively address these emerging challenges. This paper provides an overview of the health consequences of climate change, and discusses how health risks can be minimized and avoided via mitigation and adaptation pathways.}, }
@article {pmid31022212, year = {2019}, author = {Legault, S and Houle, D and Plouffe, A and Ameztegui, A and Kuehn, D and Chase, L and Blondlot, A and Perkins, TD}, title = {Perceptions of U.S. and Canadian maple syrup producers toward climate change, its impacts, and potential adaptation measures.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0215511}, pmid = {31022212}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Acer/*physiology ; Adult ; *Attitude ; Canada ; Climate Change ; Crop Production/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Culture ; Farmers/*psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Plant Exudates/analysis/*chemistry ; Sugars/analysis ; Surveys and Questionnaires/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Taste ; United States ; }, abstract = {The production of maple syrup is an important cultural and economic activity directly related to the climate of northeastern North America. As a result, there are signs that climate change could have negative impacts on maple syrup production in the next decades, particularly for regions located at the southern margins of the sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) range. The purpose of this survey study is to present the beliefs and opinions of maple syrup producers of Canada (N = 241) and the U.S. (N = 113) on climate change in general, its impacts on sugar maple health and maple syrup production, and potential adaptation measures. Using conditional inference classification trees, we examined how the socio-economic profile of respondents and the geographic location and size of respondents' sugar bushes shaped the responses of survey participants. While a majority (75%) of respondents are confident that the average temperature on Earth is increasing, less than half (46%) believe that climate change will have negative impacts on maple syrup yield in the next 30 years. Political view was a significant predictor of these results, with respondents at the right right and center-right of the political spectrum being less likely to believe in climate change and less likely to anticipate negative effects of climate change on maple syrup production. In addition, 77% of the participants indicated an interest in adopting adaptation strategies if those could increase maple syrup production. This interest was greater for respondents using vacuum tubing for sap collection than other collection methods. However, for many respondents (particularly in Canada), lack of information was identified as a constraint limiting adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31021067, year = {2019}, author = {Malena-Chan, R}, title = {A narrative model for exploring climate change engagement among young community leaders.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {157-166}, pmid = {31021067}, issn = {2368-738X}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Community Participation/*methods ; Female ; Health Promotion/organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; *Leadership ; Male ; Narration ; Program Evaluation ; Public Health/*education ; Qualitative Research ; Saskatchewan ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Decades of widespread knowledge about climate change have not translated into adequate action to address impacts on population health and health equity in Canada. Research has shown that context-based perceptions and interpretations mediate engagement. Exploring climate change engagement involves inquiry into contextual experience.<br><br>METHODS: This qualitative study has employed narrative methodology to interpret the meaning of climate change among community leaders in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, age 20-40 (n = 10). Climate change narratives were explored both structurally and thematically.<br><br>RESULTS: A model was developed to organize results and to describe concepts of fidelity and dissonance within participant narratives. Findings suggested that knowledge of climate change and personal motivation to act did not preclude narrative dissonance, which served as a barrier to a meaningful personal response. Dissonance can result where internal and external barriers mediate mobilization at moments in the plot: (1) moving from knowledge of the challenge to a sense of agency about it; (2) from agency to a sense of responsibility to choose to address it; (3) from responsibility to a sense of capacity to produce desirable outcomes despite contextual challenges; and (4) from capacity to a moral sense of activation in context. Without narrative fidelity, meaningful mobilization can be hindered.<br><br>CONCLUSION: A narrative model is useful for exploring climate change engagement and highlights opportunities for a population health approach to address the conditions that hinder meaningful mobilization. By framing climate change narratives with emotional and moral logic, population health framing could help young leaders overcome internal and external barriers to engagement.}, }
@article {pmid31021066, year = {2019}, author = {MacIntyre, E and Khanna, S and Darychuk, A and Copes, R and Schwartz, B}, title = {Evidence synthesis - Evaluating risk communication during extreme weather and climate change: a scoping review.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {142-156}, pmid = {31021066}, issn = {2368-738X}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; *Extreme Weather ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Program Evaluation ; *Public Health ; Risk Management/*organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Communicating risk to the public continues to be a challenge for public health practitioners working in the area of climate change. We conducted a scoping literature review on the evaluation of risk communication for extreme weather and climate change to inform local public health messaging, consistent with requirements under the Ontario Public Health Standards (OPHS), which were updated in 2018 to include effective communication regarding climate change and extreme weather.<br><br>METHODS: Search strategies were developed by library information specialists and used to retrieve peer-reviewed academic and grey literature from bibliographic databases (Medline, Embase, Scopus and CINAHL) and Google country specific searches, respectively. The search strategy was validated through a workshop with experts and community stakeholders, with expertise in environment, health, emergency management and risk communication.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 43 articles were included. These articles addressed issues such as: climate change (n = 22), flooding (n = 12), hurricane events (n = 5), extreme heat (n = 2), and wild fires (n = 2). Studies were predominantly from the US (n = 14), Europe (n = 6) and Canada (n = 5).<br><br>CONCLUSION: To meet the OPHS 2018, public health practitioners need to engage in effective risk communication to motivate local actions that mitigate the effects of extreme weather and climate change. Based on the scoping review, risk communication efforts during short-term extreme weather events appear to be more effective than efforts to communicate risk around climate change. This distinction could highlight a unique opportunity for public health to adapt strategies commonly used for extreme weather to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31021064, year = {2019}, author = {Kingsley, M and , }, title = {Commentary - Climate change, health and green space co-benefits.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {131-135}, pmid = {31021064}, issn = {2368-738X}, mesh = {Canada ; Chronic Disease/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; *Environmental Health ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Needs Assessment ; Public Health/*trends ; *Quality of Life ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {We examined two of humanity's present-day challenges, climate change and chronic diseases, in relation to the co-benefits that green spaces provide to human health and the environment. The reduction of several chronic diseases and associated symptoms, including anxiety, obesity and cardiovascular disease, has been associated with the presence of and access to green space. Green spaces also contribute to a number of environmental health benefits and have been shown to reduce the likelihood of flooding, improve air quality and provide cooling and shade. These co-benefits address both the symptoms of several chronic diseases and associated risk factors along with the environmental and health impacts of climate change. This article explores how to maximize the co-benefits of green spaces through two examples of multi-sectoral collaborations. With these two examples, we have provided a model of collective collaboration that aims to address complex issues, such as climate change and chronic diseases, through the common intervention of green spaces.}, }
@article {pmid31021063, year = {2019}, author = {Richards, G and Frehs, J and Myers, E and Van Bibber, M}, title = {Commentary - The Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program: Indigenous Climate Leaders' Championing Adaptation Effort.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {127-130}, pmid = {31021063}, issn = {2368-738X}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Health Services, Indigenous/*organization &amp; administration ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Indigenous Peoples ; Leadership ; Male ; *Mental Health ; Program Development ; Program Evaluation ; }, abstract = {The Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program (CCHAP) is a program within the First Nations Inuit Health Branch of Indigenous Services Canada (which was previously under the responsibility of Health Canada). The CCHAP supports Inuit and First Nation communities in mitigating and adapting to the health impacts of climate change. The impacts of climate change on Indigenous health can be observed in multiple areas including, but not limited to, food security, cultural medicines, mental health and landbased practices. This program seeks to address the needs of climate change and health in First Nation and Inuit communities to support resiliency and adaptation to a changing climate both now and in the future through its emphasis on youth and capacity building. The commentary is based on the Program's eleven years of experience working with and for Indigenous communities and provides an overview of the CCHAP model and the work it has and continues to support. This paper demonstrates three examples of community-based projects to mitigate and adapt to the health impacts of climate change to demonstrate climate change resiliency within Indigenous communities.}, }
@article {pmid31021062, year = {2019}, author = {Kipp, A and Cunsolo, A and Vodden, K and King, N and Manners, S and Harper, SL}, title = {At-a-glance - Climate change impacts on health and wellbeing in rural and remote regions across Canada: a synthesis of the literature.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {122-126}, pmid = {31021062}, issn = {2368-738X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Adaptation, Psychological ; Canada ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Environment ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Mental Health ; Needs Assessment ; *Quality of Life ; Risk Assessment ; *Rural Health ; Rural Population ; Survival Rate ; }, abstract = {This article provides a synthesis of the forthcoming first order draft of the Canadian Government's National Assessment on Climate Change 'Rural and Remote' chapter, highlighting key health concerns from the literature associated with climate change in rural and remote regions, as well as existing and future adaptation strategies. To support the health and wellbeing of those experiencing the negative effects of climate change, and utilizing systematic search processes, this synthesis article highlights the importance of considering the specific socio-cultural, economic, and geographic elements and existing expertise of individuals and communities in rural and remote regions.}, }
@article {pmid31021061, year = {2019}, author = {Cunsolo, A and Harper, SL}, title = {Editorial - Climate change and health: a grand challenge and grand opportunity for public health in Canada.}, journal = {Health promotion and chronic disease prevention in Canada : research, policy and practice}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {119-121}, pmid = {31021061}, issn = {2368-738X}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; *Periodicals as Topic ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid31018473, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, B and Deveson, ED and Waters, C and Spessa, A and Lawton, D and Feng, P and Liu, L}, title = {Future climate change likely to reduce the Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera) seasonal outbreaks.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {947-957}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.439}, pmid = {31018473}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Grasshoppers/*physiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate is a major limiting factor for insect distributions and it is expected that a changing climate will likely alter spatial patterns of pest outbreaks. The Australian plague locust (APL) Chortoicetes terminifera, is the most economically important locust species in Australia. Invasions cause large scale economic damage to agricultural crops and pastures. Understanding the regional-scale and long-term dynamics is a prerequisite to develop effective control and preventive management strategies. In this study, we used a 32-year locust survey database to uncover the relationship between historical bioclimatic variables and spatial seasonal outbreaks by developing two machine learning species distribution models (SDMs), random forest and boosted regression trees. The explanatory variables were ranked by contribution to the generated models. The bio-climate models were then projected into a future climate change scenario (RCP8.5) using downscaled 34 global climate models (GCMs) to assess how climate change may alter APL seasonal distribution patterns in eastern Australia. Our results show that the model for the distribution of spring outbreaks performed better than those for summer and autumn, based on statistical evaluation criteria. The spatial models of seasonal outbreaks indicate that the areas subject to APL outbreaks were likely to decrease in all seasons. Multi-GCM ensemble means show the largest decrease in area was for spring outbreaks, reduced by 93-94% by 2071-2090, while the area of summer outbreaks decreased by 78-90%, and 67-74% for autumn outbreaks. The bioclimatic variables could explain 78-98% outbreak areas change. This study represents an important step toward the assessment of the effects of the changing climate on locust outbreaks and can help inform future priorities for regional mitigation efforts in the context of global climate change in eastern Australia.}, }
@article {pmid31018443, year = {2019}, author = {Fonseca, AR and Santos, JA}, title = {Predicting hydrologic flows under climate change: The Tâmega Basin as an analog for the Mediterranean region.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {1013-1024}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.435}, pmid = {31018443}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of the Tâmega River basin, northern Portugal, are assessed by comparing simulated hydrologic scenarios derived from both observational climate databases for a recent past period (1950-2015) and EURO-CORDEX model simulations for the future (2021-2100). Future climate change scenarios are based on an ensemble of five climate model chain experiments and on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Basin-mean annual temperatures are ca. 10% or 20% warmer than in recent past climate (12.4 °C) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Furthermore, basin-mean annual precipitation decreases by approximately 8% or 13%, when compared to recent past (1255 mm). The Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) is applied to the historical data and to each of the five model simulations separately so as to simulate potential changes in flowrates. The model is calibrated and validated using 5 hydrometric stations, achieving satisfactory results regarding flowrate simulation. A reconstruction of flowrates within the entire river basin and over the historical period is accomplished, which is particularly useful when observed data is missing. The projected climate change impacts on annual flowrates reveal a decrease from 18% to 28% relative to observations (70.9 m[3] s[-1]). These findings provide valuable information for the future management and planning of water resources (water security) and can be largely generalized not only to other basins in Portugal, but also over most of Southern Europe and throughout the Mediterranean Basin, where significant warming and drying trends are widespread footprints of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31016366, year = {2019}, author = {Lehmkuhl, D}, title = {[Climate change and its significance in the healthcare community: history, landmarks, and major players].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {546-555}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02935-9}, pmid = {31016366}, issn = {1437-1588}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Germany ; Global Health ; Humans ; Male ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Since the early 1990s, science has addressed anthropogenic climate change as a health issue. From about 2000 onwards, the scientific literature and evidence on the health effects of climate change has been rapidly increasing. Global warming is now considered an "existential threat to humankind," and leading health organizations call climate change "the defining issue for public health in the 21 century" or a "public health emergency."In recent years, climate change as a health issue has become more and more prominent in health communities on the national and international level.The growing importance of this issue in the international health community and the stages, milestones, and topics of this development are described and what health professionals and health organizations can do to protect health from climate change is demonstrated. The decisive role of The Lancet and the reports of its international commissions, the British Medical Journal (BMJ), and the World Health Organisation (WHO) in setting the agenda is underlined. Important actors, organizations, initiatives as well as new concepts like "planetary health" and "planetary boundaries" are introduced. In the German health sector, however, climate change - apart from niches - has not been much of an issue so far. Neither in the health sector, climate policies, nor climate movement the connections between climate change and health are sufficiently understood, considered, or implemented. A look beyond borders shows what might be possible and necessary in view of the possibly "greatest crisis we have ever faced."The article is based on the author's experience, cooperation, and exchange with parties that are engaged with the issue and on years of literature research. He initiated the campaign of German doctors calling on their pension funds to divest from fossil fuels and is a founding and present board member of the "German Alliance on Health and Climate Change," which was founded 2017.}, }
@article {pmid31016365, year = {2019}, author = {Kendrovski, V and Schmoll, O}, title = {Priorities for protecting health from climate change in the WHO European Region: recent regional activities.}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {537-545}, pmid = {31016365}, issn = {1437-1588}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Germany ; Government Programs ; *Public Health ; *World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {Evidence of the impact of climate change on health is growing. Health systems need to be prepared and gradually adapt to the effects of climate change, including extreme weather events.Fossil fuel combustion as the driver of climate change poses a tremendous burden of disease. In turn, cutting greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors will achieve health co-benefits. If all countries meet the Paris Agreement by 2030, the annual number of avoidable premature deaths could total 138,000 across the entire European Region of the World Health Organization (WHO).Several international frameworks promote a stronger commitment by countries to implementing the necessary adaptations in the health sector and to addressing health considerations in adaptation measures in other sectors. The WHO has a mandate from its member states to identify solutions and help prevent or reduce health impacts, including those from climate change.National governments are continuing to establish public health adaptation measures, which provide a rationale for and trigger action on climate change by the health community. Effective national responses to climate risks require strategic analyses of current and anticipated threats. Health professionals need to play a proactive role in promoting health arguments and evidence in the formulation of national climate change adaptation and mitigation responses. To this end, country capacities need to be further strengthened to identify and address local health risks posed by climate change and to develop, implement and evaluate health-focused interventions through integrated approaches. Building climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable health care facilities is an essential pillar of health sector leadership to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31015996, year = {2019}, author = {Gómez-Gras, D and Linares, C and de Caralt, S and Cebrian, E and Frleta-Valić, M and Montero-Serra, I and Pagès-Escolà, M and López-Sendino, P and Garrabou, J}, title = {Response diversity in Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages facing climate change: Insights from a multispecific thermotolerance experiment.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {4168-4180}, pmid = {31015996}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change threatens coastal benthic communities on a global scale. However, the potential effects of ongoing warming on mesophotic temperate reefs at the community level remain poorly understood. Investigating how different members of these communities will respond to the future expected environmental conditions is, therefore, key to anticipating their future trajectories and developing specific management and conservation strategies. Here, we examined the responses of some of the main components of the highly diverse Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages to thermal stress. We performed thermotolerance experiments with different temperature treatments (from 26 to 29°C) with 10 species from different phyla (three anthozoans, six sponges and one ascidian) and different structural roles. Overall, we observed species-specific contrasting responses to warming regardless of phyla or growth form. Moreover, the responses ranged from highly resistant species to sensitive species and were mostly in agreement with previous field observations from mass mortality events (MMEs) linked to Mediterranean marine heat waves. Our results unravel the diversity of responses to warming in coralligenous outcrops and suggest the presence of potential winners and losers in the face of climate change. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accounting for species-specific vulnerabilities and response diversity when forecasting the future trajectories of temperate benthic communities in a warming ocean.}, }
@article {pmid31010935, year = {2019}, author = {Hopkinson, NS and Hart, N and Jenkins, G and Rosenfeld, M and Smyth, AR and Wilkinson, AJK and Kaminski, N}, title = {Climate change and lung health: presidential failure, professional responsibility.}, journal = {Thorax}, volume = {74}, number = {7}, pages = {627-628}, doi = {10.1136/thoraxjnl-2019-213184}, pmid = {31010935}, issn = {1468-3296}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Fossil Fuels ; Government ; Humans ; Lung Diseases/*etiology ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid31010922, year = {2019}, author = {Diffenbaugh, NS and Burke, M}, title = {Global warming has increased global economic inequality.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {20}, pages = {9808-9813}, pmid = {31010922}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Understanding the causes of economic inequality is critical for achieving equitable economic development. To investigate whether global warming has affected the recent evolution of inequality, we combine counterfactual historical temperature trajectories from a suite of global climate models with extensively replicated empirical evidence of the relationship between historical temperature fluctuations and economic growth. Together, these allow us to generate probabilistic country-level estimates of the influence of anthropogenic climate forcing on historical economic output. We find very high likelihood that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased economic inequality between countries. For example, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has been reduced 17-31% at the poorest four deciles of the population-weighted country-level per capita GDP distribution, yielding a ratio between the top and bottom deciles that is 25% larger than in a world without global warming. As a result, although between-country inequality has decreased over the past half century, there is ∼90% likelihood that global warming has slowed that decrease. The primary driver is the parabolic relationship between temperature and economic growth, with warming increasing growth in cool countries and decreasing growth in warm countries. Although there is uncertainty in whether historical warming has benefited some temperate, rich countries, for most poor countries there is >90% likelihood that per capita GDP is lower today than if global warming had not occurred. Thus, our results show that, in addition to not sharing equally in the direct benefits of fossil fuel use, many poor countries have been significantly harmed by the warming arising from wealthy countries' energy consumption.}, }
@article {pmid31007726, year = {2019}, author = {Thomas, K and Hardy, RD and Lazrus, H and Mendez, M and Orlove, B and Rivera-Collazo, I and Roberts, JT and Rockman, M and Warner, BP and Winthrop, R}, title = {Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: A social science review.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {e565}, pmid = {31007726}, issn = {1757-7780}, abstract = {The varied effects of recent extreme weather events around the world exemplify the uneven impacts of climate change on populations, even within relatively small geographic regions. Differential human vulnerability to environmental hazards results from a range of social, economic, historical, and political factors, all of which operate at multiple scales. While adaptation to climate change has been the dominant focus of policy and research agendas, it is essential to ask as well why some communities and peoples are disproportionately exposed to and affected by climate threats. The cases and synthesis presented here are organized around four key themes (resource access, governance, culture, and knowledge), which we approach from four social science fields (cultural anthropology, archaeology, human geography, and sociology). Social scientific approaches to human vulnerability draw vital attention to the root causes of climate change threats and the reasons that people are forced to adapt to them. Because vulnerability is a multidimensional process rather than an unchanging state, a dynamic social approach to vulnerability is most likely to improve mitigation and adaptation planning efforts. This article is categorized under:Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Values-Based Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid31007600, year = {2018}, author = {Hernandez, Y and Barbosa, P and Corral, S and Rivas, S}, title = {An institutional analysis to address climate change adaptation in Tenerife (Canary Islands).}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; policy}, volume = {89}, number = {}, pages = {184-191}, pmid = {31007600}, issn = {1462-9011}, abstract = {Heat waves and Saharan dust outbreaks have been acquiring more frequency and intensity in the Canary Islands during the last decades. Both climatic hazards are known to produce impacts on human health such as mortality (due to heat waves) and morbidity (due to dusty weather). This work addresses possible climate adaptation policies in Tenerife assuming the increasing impact of heat waves and Saharan dust outbreaks in the island under a climate change scenario. It explores the institutional setting of climate change adaptation planning in Tenerife and evaluates the statu quo of adaptation planning in the island through the engagement of key social actors. An historical review of the local and regional press articles and legislation, an in-depth round of interviews, together with questionnaires to the main social actors allows framing the social and political context in which climate change adaptation in Tenerife is embedded. Key social actors were engaged, including international organisations, atmospheric research centres, local Universities, regional and insular governments, trade unions, and environmental NGOs, among others. The main obstacles mentioned by the social actors that hinder the development of an effective climate adaptation policy address scientific knowledge, data collection and policy making, focusing on the uncertainty of climate models, the lack of epidemiological data and contrasting opinions regarding the existing climate adaptation policies. Public participation, mainstreaming of climate policies and an integrated approach between mitigation and adaptation plans were identified as key policy issues. The outcomes of this study could be meaningful for climate adaptation initiatives at local or regional level, such as the Global Covenant of Mayors, that intend to promote climate resilience through the setup of climate adaptation strategies and plans at municipality level.}, }
@article {pmid31007291, year = {2019}, author = {Feng, X and Liu, C and Xie, F and Lu, J and Chiu, LS and Tintera, G and Chen, B}, title = {Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high-resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation.}, journal = {Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)}, volume = {145}, number = {718}, pages = {303-317}, pmid = {31007291}, issn = {0035-9009}, abstract = {Changes in precipitation amount, intensity and frequency in response to global warming are examined using global high-resolution (16 km) climate model simulations based on the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) conducted under Project Athena. Our study shows the increases of zonal-mean total precipitation in all latitudes except the northern subtropics (15°-30°N) and southern subtropics-to-midlatitudes (30°-40°S). The probability distribution function (PDF) changes in different latitudes suggest a higher occurrence of light precipitation (LP; ≤1 mm/day) and heavy precipitation (HP; ≥30 mm/day) at the expense of moderate precipitation reduction (MP; 1-30 mm/day) from Tropics to midlatitudes, but an increase in all categories of precipitation in polar regions. On the other hand, the PDF change with global warming in different precipitation climatological zones presents another image. For all regions and seasons examined, there is an HP increase at the cost of MP, but LP varies. The reduced MP in richer precipitation zones resides in the PDF peak intensities, which linearly increase with the precipitation climatology zones. In particular in the Tropics (20°S to 20°N), the precipitation PDF has a flatter distribution (i.e. HP and LP increases with MP reduction) except for the Sahara Desert. In the primary precipitation zones in the subtropics (20°-40°) of both hemispheres, precipitation over land switches toward higher intensity (HP increases, but MP and LP decrease) in both winter and summer, while precipitation over ocean in both seasons shows a flattening trend in the intensity distribution. For the major precipitation zones of the mid-to-high latitude belt (40°-70°), PDF of precipitation tends to be flatter over ocean in summer, but switches toward higher intensities over land in both summer and winter, as well as over ocean in winter.}, }
@article {pmid31005841, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, K and Pan, Q and Yu, D and Wang, L and Liu, Z and Li, X and Liu, X}, title = {Systemically modeling the relationship between climate change and wheat aphid abundance.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {674}, number = {}, pages = {392-400}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.143}, pmid = {31005841}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Aphids/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Models, Statistical ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Climate change influences all living beings. Wheat aphids deplete the nutritional value of wheat and affect the production of wheat in changing climate. In this study, we attempt to explain the ecological mechanisms of how climate change affects wheat aphids by simulating the relationship between climate and the abundance of wheat aphids, which will not only aid in improving wheat aphid forecasting and the effectiveness of prevention and treatment, but also help mitigate food crises. Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) are an effective tool for portraying complex systems. Using Sitobion avenae and climatological data collected in China, we made use of differential evolution (DE) algorithms to construct FCM models that directly illustrate the effect of climate on wheat aphid abundance. The relationships among climate and wheat aphids at different growth stages (I-III instar larvae, IV instar larvae with wings, IV instar larvae without wings, adult with wings, adult without wings) were established. The analysis results from the FCM models show that temperature positively influences wheat aphids most. Moreover, these models can be used to determine the numerical value of each climate factor and the abundance of wheat aphids quantitatively. Furthermore, the two overall relationship models between climate and wheat aphids were constructed and the experimental results show that natural enemies and highest daily temperature affect wheat aphids most. Natural enemies and highest daily temperature exert negative and positive impacts on wheat aphids respectively. Some interrelationships among wheat aphids at all growth stages and the internal relationships among climate factors were also shown.}, }
@article {pmid31004118, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmadi, M and Hemami, MR and Kaboli, M and Malekian, M and Zimmermann, NE}, title = {Extinction risks of a Mediterranean neo-endemism complex of mountain vipers triggered by climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6332}, pmid = {31004118}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is among the most important drivers of biodiversity decline through shift or shrinkage in suitable habitat of species. Mountain vipers of the genus Montivipera are under extreme risk from climate changes given their evolutionary history and geographic distribution. In this study, we divided all Montivipera species into three phylogenetic-geographic Montivipera clades (PGMC; Bornmuelleri, Raddei and Xanthina) and applied an ensemble ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach under different climatic scenarios to assess changes in projected suitable habitats of these species. Based on the predicted range losses, we assessed the projected extinction risk of the species relative to IUCN Red List Criteria. Our result revealed a strong decline in suitable habitats for all PGMCs (63.8%, 79.3% and 96.8% for Xanthina, Raddei and Bornmuelleri, respectively, by 2070 and under 8.5 RCP scenario) with patterns of altitudinal range shifts in response to projected climate change. We found that the mountains close to the Mediterranean Sea are exposed to the highest threats in the future (84.6 ± 9.1 percent range loss). We also revealed that disjunct populations of Montivipera will be additionally highly isolated and fragmented in the future. We argue that leveraging climate niche projections into the risk assessment provides the opportunity to implement IUCN criteria and better assess forthcoming extinction risks of species.}, }
@article {pmid30999175, year = {2019}, author = {Purakayastha, TJ and Bera, T and Bhaduri, D and Sarkar, B and Mandal, S and Wade, P and Kumari, S and Biswas, S and Menon, M and Pathak, H and Tsang, DCW}, title = {A review on biochar modulated soil condition improvements and nutrient dynamics concerning crop yields: Pathways to climate change mitigation and global food security.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {227}, number = {}, pages = {345-365}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2019.03.170}, pmid = {30999175}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; Charcoal/chemistry/*pharmacology ; Crops, Agricultural/drug effects/growth &amp; development ; Nutrients/*analysis ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The beneficial role of biochar on improvement of soil quality, C sequestration, and enhancing crop yield is widely reported. As such there is not much consolidated information available linking biochar modulated soil condition improvement and soil nutrient availability on crop yields. The present review paper addresses the above issues by compilation of world literature on biochar and a new dimension is introduced in this review by performing a meta-analysis of published data by using multivariate statistical analysis. Hence this review is a new in its kind and is useful to the broad spectrum of readers. Generally, alkalinity in biochar increases with increase in pyrolysis temperature and majority of the biochar is alkaline in nature except a few which are acidic. The N content in many biochar was reported to be more than 4% as well as less than 0.5%. Poultry litter biochar is a rich source of P (3.12%) and K (7.40%), while paper mill sludge biochar is higher in Ca content (31.1%) and swine solids biochar in Zn (49810 mg kg[-1]), and Fe (74800 mg kg[-1]) contents. The effect of biochar on enhancing soil pH was higher in Alfisol, Ferrosol and Acrisol. Soil application of biochar could on an average increase (78%), decrease (16%), or show no effect on crop yields under different soil types. Biochar produced at a lower pyrolysis temperature could deliver greater soil nutrient availabilities than that prepared at higher temperature. Principal component analysis (PCA) of available data shows an inverse relationship between [pyrolysis temperature and soil pH], and [biochar application rate and soil cation exchange capacity]. The PCA also suggests that the original soil properties and application rate strongly control crop yield stimulations via biochar amendments. Finally, biochar application shows net soil C gains while also serving for increased plant biomass production that strongly recommends biochar as a useful soil amendment. Therefore, the application of biochar to soils emerges as a 'win-win strategy' for sustainable waste management, climate change mitigation and food security.}, }
@article {pmid30998388, year = {2019}, author = {Schmidt, CW}, title = {The Future of Stunting: Potential Scenarios under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {4}, pages = {44002}, pmid = {30998388}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; *Commerce ; Food ; Forecasting ; Growth Disorders ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid30997525, year = {2019}, author = {Schoierer, J and Mertes, H and Wershofen, B and Böse-O'Reilly, S}, title = {[Training modules on climate change, heat, and health for medical assistants and nurses in outpatient care].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {620-628}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02942-w}, pmid = {30997525}, issn = {1437-1588}, mesh = {Aged ; Ambulatory Care ; *Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Germany ; Health Personnel/*education ; Heat Stress Disorders/*therapy ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Nursing ; }, abstract = {The number of heatwaves is going to increase due to climate change and will pose a high health risk especially for elderly people. Additional risk factors like immobility, the need for care, chronic and acute diseases (worsening of symptoms), and the intake of medications lead to an increased sensitivity to heat in this particular age group. Nursing staff and medical assistants working in general practices are two important professions to reach the risk group during heatwaves and provide preventive and curative care.The "Klinikum der Universität München" has developed an interprofessional blended-learning program to sensitize for this topic and to enable those two professional groups to react adequately to heat events. It combines independent learning with the help of online videos and presentations and a face-to-face component for the practical application of knowledge through examples. The concept, the results, as well as the conclusion of the project, which completed in October 2018, are presented in this article.Educational programs are part of the adaption strategies to heat events. The "Recommendations for the creation of Heat Action Plans for the Protection of Human Health" state that advanced trainings and education of healthcare and social workers help to communicate relevant content to adequately act during heat periods. The developed educational program fulfills this demand.To enable the widest possible use, the training materials are available free of charge and can be downloaded from www.klimawandelundbildung.de .}, }
@article {pmid30995250, year = {2019}, author = {Smith, MA and Sullender, BK and Koeppen, WC and Kuletz, KJ and Renner, HM and Poe, AJ}, title = {An assessment of climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0214573}, pmid = {30995250}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Alaska ; Algorithms ; *Animal Nutrition Sciences ; Animals ; Biomass ; Birds/*physiology ; Charadriiformes/physiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Cluster Analysis ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Geography ; Ice Cover ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Reproducibility of Results ; Seawater ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Recently available downscaled ocean climate models for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc offer the opportunity to assess climate vulnerability for upper trophic level consumers such as marine birds. We analyzed seasonal and annual spatial projections from three climate models for two physical climate variables (seawater temperature and sea ice) and three forage variables (large copepods, euphausiids, and benthic infauna), comparing projected conditions from a recent time period (2003-2012) to a future time period (2030-2039). We focused the analyses on core areas within globally significant Important Bird Areas, and developed indices of the magnitude of projected change and vulnerability agreement among models. All three climate models indicated a high degree of change for seawater temperature warming (highest in the central and eastern Aleutian Islands) and ice loss (most significant in the eastern Bering Sea) across scales, and we found those changes to be significant for every species and virtually every core area assessed. There was low model agreement for the forage variables; while the majority of core areas were identified as climate vulnerable by one or more models (72% for large copepods, 73% for euphausiids, and 94% for benthic infauna), very few were agreed upon by all three models (only 6% of euphausiid-forager core areas). Based on the magnitude-agreement score, euphausiid biomass decline affected core areas for fulmars, gulls, and auklets, especially along the outer shelf and Aleutian Islands. Benthic biomass decline affected eiders along the inner shelf, and large copepod decline was significant for storm-petrels and auklets in the western Aleutians. Overall, 12% of core areas indicated climate vulnerability for all variables assessed. Modeling and interpreting biological parameters to project future dynamics remains complex; the strong signal for projected physical changes raised concerns about lagged responses such as distribution shifts, breeding failures, mortality events, and population declines.}, }
@article {pmid30995228, year = {2019}, author = {Lippi, CA and Stewart-Ibarra, AM and Loor, MEFB and Zambrano, JED and Lopez, NAE and Blackburn, JK and Ryan, SJ}, title = {Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0007322}, pmid = {30995228}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Aedes/*physiology/virology ; Animals ; Arboviruses ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Ecuador ; Larva ; *Models, Biological ; Mosquito Vectors/physiology/virology ; }, abstract = {Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment of Ae. aegypti into mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km2 under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador.}, }
@article {pmid30995158, year = {2019}, author = {Sanz-Menéndez, L and Cruz-Castro, L}, title = {The credibility of scientific communication sources regarding climate change: A population-based survey experiment.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {28}, number = {5}, pages = {534-553}, pmid = {30995158}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {This article analyses whether different institutional sources of scientific information have an impact on its credibility. Through a population-based survey experiment of a national representative sample of the Spanish public, we measure the credibility that citizens attribute to scientific information on the evolution of CO2 emissions disclosed by different institutional sources (business associations, government, non-government environmental organisations, international bodies and national research institutions). The findings show that an institutional credibility gap exists in science communication. We also investigate the factors accounting for the credibility of the different institutional sources by examining variables related to knowledge, interest, trust, reputation, deference, attitudes, values and personal characteristics. Exploratory regression analyses reveal that identical variables can produce different effects on the credibility of scientific information, depending on the institutional source to which it is attributed.}, }
@article {pmid30993361, year = {2019}, author = {Mücke, HG and Straff, W}, title = {[Increasing weather extremes are reasons to take health adaptation to climate change seriously].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {535-536}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02944-8}, pmid = {30993361}, issn = {1437-1588}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Germany ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid30993048, year = {2019}, author = {Tang, L and Wang, R and He, KS and Shi, C and Yang, T and Huang, Y and Zheng, P and Shi, F}, title = {Throwing light on dark diversity of vascular plants in China: predicting the distribution of dark and threatened species under global climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6731}, pmid = {30993048}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: As global climate change accelerates, ecologists and conservationists are increasingly investigating changes in biodiversity and predicting species distribution based on species observed at sites, but rarely consider those plant species that could potentially inhabit but are absent from these areas (i.e., the dark diversity and its distribution). Here, we estimated the dark diversity of vascular plants in China and picked up threatened dark species from the result, and applied maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to project current and future distributions of those dark species in their potential regions (those regions that have these dark species).<br><br>METHODS: We used the Beals probability index to estimate dark diversity in China based on available species distribution information and explored which environmental variables had significant impacts on dark diversity by incorporating bioclimatic data into the random forest (RF) model. We collected occurrence data of threatened dark species (Eucommia ulmoides, Liriodendron chinense, Phoebe bournei, Fagus longipetiolata, Amentotaxus argotaenia, and Cathaya argyrophylla) and related bioclimatic information that can be used to predict their distributions. In addition, we used MaxEnt modeling to project their distributions in suitable areas under future (2050 and 2070) climate change scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: We found that every study region's dark diversity was lower than its observed species richness. In these areas, their numbers of dark species are ranging from 0 to 215, with a generally increasing trend from western regions to the east. RF results showed that temperature variables had a more significant effect on dark diversity than those associated with precipitation. The results of MaxEnt modeling showed that most threatened dark species were climatically suitable in their potential regions from current to 2070.<br><br>DISCUSSIONS: The results of this study provide the first ever dark diversity patterns concentrated in China, even though it was estimated at the provincial scale. A combination of dark diversity and MaxEnt modeling is an effective way to shed light on the species that make up the dark diversity, such as projecting the distribution of specific dark species under global climate change. Besides, the combination of dark diversity and species distribution models (SDMs) may also be of value for ex situ conservation, ecological restoration, and species invasion prevention in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30992446, year = {2019}, author = {Fletcher, S and Lickley, M and Strzepek, K}, title = {Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1782}, pmid = {30992446}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Water resources planning requires decision-making about infrastructure development under uncertainty in future regional climate conditions. However, uncertainty in climate change projections will evolve over the 100-year lifetime of a dam as new climate observations become available. Flexible strategies in which infrastructure is proactively designed to be changed in the future have the potential to meet water supply needs without expensive over-building. Evaluating tradeoffs between flexible and traditional static planning approaches requires extension of current paradigms for planning under climate change uncertainty which do not assess opportunities to reduce uncertainty in the future. We develop a new planning framework that assesses the potential to learn about regional climate change over time and therefore evaluates the appropriateness of flexible approaches today. We demonstrate it on a reservoir planning problem in Mombasa, Kenya. This approach identifies opportunities to reliably use incremental approaches, enabling adaptation investments to reach more vulnerable communities with fewer resources.}, }
@article {pmid30992396, year = {2019}, author = {Kwok, R}, title = {Science and Culture: Can climate change games boost public understanding?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {16}, pages = {7602-7604}, pmid = {30992396}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; *Games, Recreational ; Humans ; Knowledge ; *Public Opinion ; Video Games ; }, }
@article {pmid30991313, year = {2019}, author = {Whitehead, PG and Jin, L and Bussi, G and Voepel, HE and Darby, SE and Vasilopoulos, G and Manley, R and Rodda, H and Hutton, C and Hackney, C and Tri, VPD and Hung, NN}, title = {Water quality modelling of the Mekong River basin: Climate change and socioeconomics drive flow and nutrient flux changes to the Mekong Delta.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {673}, number = {}, pages = {218-229}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.315}, pmid = {30991313}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Mekong delta is recognised as one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas, being subject to a range of environmental pressures including sea level rise, increasing population, and changes in flows and nutrients from its upland catchment. With changing climate and socioeconomics there is a need to assess how the Mekong catchment will be affected in terms of the delivery of water and nutrients into the delta system. Here we apply the Integrated Catchment model (INCA) to the whole Mekong River Basin to simulate flow and water quality, including nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus and soluble reactive phosphorus. The impacts of climate change on all these variables have been assessed across 24 river reaches ranging from the Himalayas down to the delta in Vietnam. We used the UK Met Office PRECIS regionally coupled climate model to downscale precipitation and temperature to the Mekong catchment. This was accomplished using the Global Circulation Model GFDL-CM to provide the boundary conditions under two carbon control strategies, namely representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and a RCP 8.5 scenario. The RCP 4.5 scenario represents the carbon strategy required to meet the Paris Accord, which aims to limit peak global temperatures to below a 2 °C rise whilst seeking to pursue options that limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The RCP 8.5 scenario is associated with a larger 3-4 °C rise. In addition, we also constructed a range of socio-economic scenarios to investigate the potential impacts of changing population, atmospheric pollution, economic growth and land use change up to the 2050s. Results of INCA simulations indicate increases in mean flows of up to 24%, with flood flows in the monsoon period increasing by up to 27%, but with increasing periods of drought up to 2050. A shift in the timing of the monsoon is also simulated, with a 4 week advance in the onset of monsoon flows on average. Decreases in nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations occur primarily due to flow dilution, but fluxes of these nutrients also increase by 5%, which reflects the changing flow, land use change and population changes.}, }
@article {pmid30990800, year = {2019}, author = {Myhr, A and Røyne, F and Brandtsegg, AS and Bjerkseter, C and Throne-Holst, H and Borch, A and Wentzel, A and Røyne, A}, title = {Towards a low CO2 emission building material employing bacterial metabolism (2/2): Prospects for global warming potential reduction in the concrete industry.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0208643}, pmid = {30990800}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Bacteria/*metabolism ; Calcium Carbonate/chemistry/economics ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Construction Industry/economics/methods ; *Construction Materials/analysis/economics/microbiology ; Crystallization ; *Global Warming ; Green Chemistry Technology/economics/methods ; Greenhouse Effect ; Industrial Microbiology/economics/methods ; Solubility ; }, abstract = {The production of concrete is one of the most significant contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions. This work focuses on bio-cementation-based products and their potential to reduce global warming potential (GWP). In particular, we address a proposed bio-cementation method employing bacterial metabolism in a two-step process of limestone dissolution and recrystallisation (BioZEment). A scenario-based techno-economic analysis (TEA) is combined with a life cycle assessment (LCA), a market model and a literature review of consumers' willingness to pay, to compute the expected reduction of global GWP. Based on the LCA, the GWP of 1 ton of BioZEment is found to be 70-83% lower than conventional concrete. In the TEA, three scenarios are investigated: brick, precast and onsite production. The results indicate that brick production may be the easiest way to implement the products, but that due to high cost, the impact on global GWP will be marginal. For precast production the expected 10% higher material cost of BioZEment only produces a marginal increase in total cost. Thus, precast production has the potential to reduce global GWP from concrete production by 0-20%. Significant technological hurdles remain before BioZEment-based products can be used in onsite construction scenarios, but in this scenario, the potential GWP reduction ranges from 1 to 26%. While the potential to reduce global GWP is substantial, significant efforts need to be made both in regard to public acceptance and production methods for this potential to be unlocked.}, }
@article {pmid30989322, year = {2019}, author = {Mitter, H and Larcher, M and Schönhart, M and Stöttinger, M and Schmid, E}, title = {Exploring Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptation Intentions: Empirical Evidence from Austria.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {6}, pages = {804-821}, pmid = {30989322}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Austria ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Intention ; }, abstract = {The lack of timely adaptation in agriculture may hamper prosperous farm developments by neglecting risks and opportunities emerging from climate change. Understanding farmers' perceptual and socio-cognitive processes is key in order to encourage on-farm adaptation. We aim at investigating how farmers' individual cognition on climate change and adaptation as well as socio-environmental context factors affect agricultural adaptation intention and avoidance. We build on the Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC) and apply a qualitative interview approach in two Austrian farming regions. Twenty semi-structured interviews have been conducted with 29 farmers. Based on the results of the qualitative content analysis, we have identified four groups of farmers, which differ in the formation process of adaptation intention and avoidance: (i) climate change adaptors, (ii) integrative adaptors, (iii) cost-benefit calculators, and (iv) climate change fatalists. Farmers who are part of groups (i)-(iii) form adaptation intentions, whereas climate change fatalists do not intend to adapt. According to our analysis, adaptation intentions are only formed if farmers are aware of effective adaptation measures, accept personal responsibility for their farms, and evaluate adaptation costs positively (i.e. adaptation appraisal). Farmers' climate change appraisal as well as farm and regional characteristics are also perceived relevant for farmers' adaptation decisions but seem to be less important than adaptation appraisal. Therefore, we conclude that engagement strategies and outreach efforts need not only address risks and opportunities, but should also strengthen farmers' self-responsibility and offer adaptation measures tailored to the regional characteristics and the farmers' needs.}, }
@article {pmid30989260, year = {2019}, author = {Baldermann, C and Lorenz, S}, title = {[UV radiation in Germany: influences of ozone depletion and climate change and measures to protect the population].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {639-645}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02934-w}, pmid = {30989260}, issn = {1437-1588}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure ; Germany ; Humans ; *Ozone ; *Ozone Depletion ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Ultraviolet radiation (UV radiation) can lead to numerous skin and eye diseases, both immediately and later in life. The most serious consequence is skin cancer. The risk of skin cancer increases, among other things, with increasing UV irradiance and/or with increasing outdoor exposure times. Due to the fact that UV radiation is carcinogenic, protection of the population against harmful UV exposure is an important radiation protection and health objective.In Germany, ozone depletion and climate change can also influence the UV irradiance and outdoor exposure times to such an extent that the UV exposure of the population and thus the skin cancer risk can increase. This is why protection against harmful UV exposure is even more important. Since ozone depletion and climate change can further increase the UV exposure of humans, protection against high UV exposure is even more important. A country's adaptation strategies to the health consequences of ozone depletion and climate change should therefore also include strategies to reduce UV exposure.In this review, the health effects of UV radiation and the risk factors for UV-related skin cancer are first presented. The measurement of UV irradiance and exposure in Germany is explained. The effects of ozone depletion and climate change on UV exposure are then described and measures to protect the population are presented.}, }
@article {pmid30988183, year = {2019}, author = {Randell, H and Gray, C}, title = {Climate change and educational attainment in the global tropics.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {18}, pages = {8840-8845}, pmid = {30988183}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {P2C HD050924/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Data Collection ; *Educational Status ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Climate change may negatively impact education among children via exposure to extreme temperature and precipitation conditions. We link census data from 29 countries across the global tropics to high-resolution gridded climate data to understand how climatic conditions experienced in utero and during early childhood affect educational attainment at ages 12 to 16. We show that exposure to higher-than-average temperatures during the prenatal and early-life period is associated with fewer years of schooling in Southeast Asia. In this region, a child who experiences temperatures 2 SDs above average is predicted to attain 1.5 fewer years of schooling than one who experiences average temperatures. In addition, early-life rainfall is positively correlated with attainment in West and Central Africa as well as Southeast Asia, and negatively correlated with attainment in Central America and the Caribbean. While we expected that children from the most educated households would be buffered from these effects, we discover that they tend to experience the greatest educational penalties when exposed to hotter early-life conditions and, in some regions, to drier conditions. For example, among the most educated households in West and Central Africa, predicted schooling is 1.8 years lower for children who experience early-life rainfall 2 SDs below average versus 2 SDs above average, while the difference is just 0.8 years for children from the least educated households. These results suggest that development and educational gains in the tropics could be undermined by climate change, even for better-off households.}, }
@article {pmid30986089, year = {2019}, author = {Sellers, S and Ebi, KL and Hess, J}, title = {Climate Change, Human Health, and Social Stability: Addressing Interlinkages.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {4}, pages = {45002}, pmid = {30986089}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Community Health Planning ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Abundant historical evidence demonstrates how environmental changes can affect social stability and, in turn, human health. A rapidly growing body of literature, largely from political science and economics, is examining the potential for and consequences associated with social instability related to current climate change. However, comparatively little of this research incorporates the effects on human health or the role of health systems in influencing the magnitude and types of instability that could occur.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The objective of this commentary is to articulate a conceptual framework incorporating health outcomes and health systems into theorized and observed linkages between climate change and social instability, illustrating in particular the health effects of natural resource shortages, infectious disease outbreaks, and migration.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Although increasing evidence exists that climate change, health, and social instability are related, key questions remain about the pathways linking these factors, as well as the magnitude, causality, and directionality of relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Models seeking to explain and predict climate-related social unrest should incorporate the many linkages between climate change, human health, and social instability. Members of the environmental health research community should work closely with those in the political science and economics communities to help deepen understandings of climate-related stressors and shocks that affect instability and worsen health outcomes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4534.}, }
@article {pmid30984444, year = {2019}, author = {Kupika, OL and Gandiwa, E and Nhamo, G and Kativu, S}, title = {Local Ecological Knowledge on Climate Change and Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Strategies Promote Resilience in the Middle Zambezi Biosphere Reserve, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Scientifica}, volume = {2019}, number = {}, pages = {3069254}, pmid = {30984444}, issn = {2090-908X}, abstract = {Understanding local community perceptions on impacts, causes, and responses to climate change is vital for promotion of community resilience towards climate change. This study explored local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by local communities on climate change trends and impacts in the Middle Zambezi Biosphere Reserve (MZBR), Zimbabwe. The objectives of the study were to (i) investigate local community perceptions on trends and causes of climate change, (ii) identify biophysical impacts of climate change at the local level, and (iii) explore the ecosystem-based adaptation strategies towards climate change. The study used a mixed methods approach where a household questionnaire survey (n=320), key informant interviews (n=12), and focus group discussions (n=8) were used to collect data between April 2015 and October 2016. Results from the study show that local communities have observed decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures as key indicators of climate change. Local communities observed water scarcity, changes in vegetation phenology, livestock and wildlife mortalities, and food shortages due to drought as the major impacts on their livelihoods. LEK can contribute to adaptive management strategies that enhance resilience of socioecological systems (SES) in the face of climate change by providing information on the status and use of biophysical components of the environment and by highlighting potential local adaptation strategies that can sustain key livelihood practices.}, }
@article {pmid30984216, year = {2019}, author = {De Boeck, HJ and Hiltbrunner, E and Jentsch, A and Vandvik, V}, title = {Editorial: Responses to Climate Change in the Cold Biomes.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {347}, pmid = {30984216}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid30983540, year = {2019}, author = {Omazic, A and Berggren, C and Thierfelder, T and Koch, A and Evengard, B}, title = {Discrepancies in data reporting of zoonotic infectious diseases across the Nordic countries - a call for action in the era of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {78}, number = {1}, pages = {1601991}, pmid = {30983540}, issn = {2242-3982}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Documentation/*standards ; Humans ; Population Surveillance/*methods ; Scandinavian and Nordic Countries/epidemiology ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Emerging infections have in recent years caused enormous health problems. About 70% of these infections are zoonotic e.g. arise from natural foci in the environment. As climate change impacts ecosystems there is an ongoing transition of infectious diseases in humans. With the fastest changes of the climate occurring in the Arctic, this area is important to monitor for infections with potentials to be climate sensitive. To meet the increasing demand for evidence-based policies regarding climate-sensitive infectious diseases, epidemiological studies are vital. A review of registered data for nine potentially climate-sensitive infections, collected from health authorities in Denmark/Greenland, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, found that performing such studies across countries is constrained by incompatible reporting systems and differences in regulations. To address this, international standardisation is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid30983064, year = {2019}, author = {Krebs, CJ and Boonstra, R and Gilbert, BS and Kenney, AJ and Boutin, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on the small mammal community of the Yukon boreal forest.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {528-541}, pmid = {30983064}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Forests ; Mammals/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; Yukon Territory ; }, abstract = {Long-term monitoring is critical to determine the stability and sustainability of wildlife populations, and if change has occurred, why. We have followed population density changes in the small mammal community in the boreal forest of the southern Yukon for 46 years with density estimates by live trapping on 3-5 unmanipulated grids in spring and autumn. This community consists of 10 species and was responsible for 9% of the energy flow in the herbivore component of this ecosystem from 1986 to 1996, but this increased to 38% from 2003 to 2014. Small mammals, although small in size, are large in the transfer of energy from plants to predators and decomposers. Four species form the bulk of the biomass. There was a shift in the dominant species from the 1970s to the 2000s, with Myodes rutilus increasing in relative abundance by 22% and Peromyscus maniculatus decreasing by 22%. From 2007 to 2018, Myodes comprised 63% of the catch, Peromyscus 20%, and Microtus species 17%. Possible causes of these changes involve climate change, which is increasing primary production in this boreal forest, and an associated increase in the abundance of 3 rodent predators, marten (Martes americana), ermine (Mustela ermine) and coyotes (Canis latrans). Following and understanding these and potential future changes will require long-term monitoring studies on a large scale to measure metapopulation dynamics. The small mammal community in northern Canada is being affected by climate change and cannot remain stable. Changes will be critically dependent on food-web interactions that are species-specific.}, }
@article {pmid30981142, year = {2019}, author = {Withey, P and Sullivan, D and Lantz, V}, title = {Willingness to pay for protection from storm surge damages under climate change in Halifax Regional Municipality.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {241}, number = {}, pages = {44-52}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.04.007}, pmid = {30981142}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Floods ; Humans ; Income ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses risks to coastal cities due to sea-level rise and changes in storm surge. Using the contingent valuation method and payment card format, this paper seeks to estimate residents of Halifax Regional Municipality's willingness to pay (WTP) for protection from flooding impacts from storm surge. The contribution of this study is the application of this method in a previously unstudied region, to understand individuals' perception of risk and WTP to avoid damage, in order to inform policy aimed at protecting against damage due to sea-level rise and storm surge. WTP is estimated without and with the expectation of future climate change, and also for public vs. private goods. Data is analyzed and compared using OLS, Heckman two-step and Tobit Interval regression models. Results suggest that on average, WTP is roughly $12 per month per household over a ten-year period without the expectation of climate change, and roughly $13 per month per household assuming climate change will have negative impacts in the region. Individuals are most often willing to pay to protect against damages to public infrastructure, as well as power outages. Income and education do not play a major role in individuals WTP. Vulnerability to flooding and level of concern related to risky events have a statistically significant impact on WTP in all models, and gender and age have an impact on WTP in some models.}, }
@article {pmid30980766, year = {2019}, author = {Lin, MJ and Torbeck, RL and Dubin, DP and Lin, CE and Khorasani, H}, title = {Climate change and skin cancer.}, journal = {Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology : JEADV}, volume = {33}, number = {9}, pages = {e324-e325}, doi = {10.1111/jdv.15622}, pmid = {30980766}, issn = {1468-3083}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Skin Neoplasms/*epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid30980113, year = {2019}, author = {Schach, H}, title = {[Organised neighbourhood support during extreme weather events in rural areas : Using the "volunteers on-site system" to strategically adapt to crisis situations caused by climate change].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {629-638}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02936-8}, pmid = {30980113}, issn = {1437-1588}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Germany ; Humans ; Public Health ; Rural Population ; Volunteers ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. The impacts are globally and regionally visible through more and more frequent extreme weather events, be they devastating storms, longer periods of cold and heat or prolonged periods of drought alternating with heavy rain and flooding. In addition to the urgent need for climate change mitigation, therefore, the question has been raised for some time as to which measures cities and municipalities, rural districts and regions can use to prepare themselves against the consequences of climate change.The region of Northern Hesse developed strategies and measures for climate adaptation at an early stage as part of the KLIMZUG (shaping climate change for the future in regions) federal support programme. The question remains open as to what will happen in rural regions - and especially in remote places - when there is no more civil protection assistance available in the event of a disaster either because they are needed elsewhere, roads are impassable or electricity, telephone and Internet connections are no longer functioning. For this case, a project consortium led by the Regionalmanagement Nordhessen GmbH has now developed the "volunteers on-site system" (Freiwilligen-vor-Ort-System [FvOS]) as an organised form of neighbourhood support.This model project, which is unique in Germany, is intended to show how care for people in need of help and care can be ensured in rural areas in the event of a disaster.The project has sensitised citizens and task forces to this task and initiated a process that is intended to lead to more self-responsibility, but also safety in the event of a disaster situation. FvOS is intended to signal the need for climate change mitigation throughout Germany.}, }
@article {pmid30978188, year = {2019}, author = {Lee, J and de Carvalho, M}, title = {Technological improvements or climate change? Bayesian modeling of time-varying conformance to Benford's Law.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0213300}, pmid = {30978188}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; Humans ; Quality Control ; *Tornadoes ; }, abstract = {We develop a Bayesian time-varying model that tracks periods at which conformance to Benford's Law is lower. Our methods are motivated by recent attempts to assess how the quality and homogeneity of large datasets may change over time by using the First-Digit Rule. We resort to a smooth multinomial logistic model which captures the dynamics governing the proportion of first digits, and apply the proposed model to global tropical cyclone tracks over the past two centuries. Our findings indicate that cumulative technological improvements may have only had a moderate influence on the homogeneity of the dataset, and hint that recent heterogeneity could be due to other drivers.}, }
@article {pmid30977006, year = {2019}, author = {Gorh, D and Baruah, KK}, title = {Estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emission from wetland rice paddies with reference to global warming potential.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {16}, pages = {16331-16344}, pmid = {30977006}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Gases/*analysis ; India ; Methane/*analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; Oryza/*physiology ; Plant Stomata/physiology ; Plant Transpiration ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are two important greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute largely to global warming and climate change. The impact of physiological characteristics of rice genotypes on global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) is not well documented. A 2-year field experiment was conducted with eight summer rice varieties: Dinanath, Joymoti, Kanaklata, Swarnabh, IR 64, Tapaswami (modern varieties), Number 9, and Jagilee Boro (indigenous varieties) for two successive seasons (December-June, 2015-2016 and December-June, 2016-2017) to estimate their GWP and GHGI. The GWP of the rice varieties ranged from 841.52 to 1288.67 kg CO2-equiv. ha[-1] and GHGI from 0.184 to 0.854 kg CO2-equiv. kg[-1] grain yield. Significant differences (p < 0.05) in seasonal GHG emission, GWP, GHGI, CEE (carbon equivalent emission), photosynthetic efficiency, stomatal conductance, transpiration rate, and grain productivity among the rice varieties were observed during the investigation. A good correlation of GWP (p < 0.01) was recorded with rate of stomatal conductance and transpiration rate of the varieties. The present study reveals a strong relationship between plant biomass (p < 0.01) with GWP and CEE of the rice varieties. The variety IR 64 and Number 9 are identified as the most suitable variety with lowest GWP (909.85 and 876.68 kg CO2-equiv. ha[-1] respectively) and GHGI (0.192 and 0.227 kg CO2-equiv. kg[-1] grain yield respectively) accompanied by higher grain productivity (4839 and 3867 kg ha[-1] respectively). Observations from the study suggest that agricultural productivity and GHG mitigation can be simultaneously achieved by proper selection of rice genotypes.}, }
@article {pmid30976790, year = {2019}, author = {Semenza, JC and Ebi, KL}, title = {Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {26}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {30976790}, issn = {1708-8305}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Human Migration ; Humans ; Public Health ; *Travel ; }, abstract = {Background: Climate change is not only increasing ambient temperature but also accelerating the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy precipitation and droughts, and causing sea level rise, which can lead to population displacement. Climate change-related reductions in land productivity and habitability and in food and water security can also interact with demographic, economic and social factors to increase migration. In addition to migration, climate change has also implications for travel and the risk of disease. This article discusses the impact of climate change on migration and travel with implications for public health practice. Methods: Literature review. Results: Migrants may be at increased risk of communicable and non-communicable diseases, due to factors in their country of origin and their country of destination or conditions that they experience during migration. Although migration has not been a significant driver of communicable disease outbreaks to date, public health authorities need to ensure that effective screening and vaccination programmes for priority communicable diseases are in place.Population growth coupled with socio-economic development is increasing travel and tourism, and advances in technology have increased global connectivity and reduced the time required to cover long distances. At the same time, as a result of climate change, many temperate regions, including high-income countries, are now suitable for vector-borne disease transmission. This is providing opportunities for importation of vectors and pathogens from endemic areas that can lead to cases or outbreaks of communicable diseases with which health professionals may be unfamiliar. Conclusion: Health systems need to be prepared for the potential population health consequences of migration, travel and tourism and the impact of climate change on these. Integrated surveillance, early detection of cases and other public health interventions are critical to protect population health and prevent and control communicabledisease outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid30973922, year = {2019}, author = {Miranda, LS and Imperatriz-Fonseca, VL and Giannini, TC}, title = {Climate change impact on ecosystem functions provided by birds in southeastern Amazonia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {e0215229}, pmid = {30973922}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Birds/classification ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Global Warming ; Models, Biological ; *Rainforest ; }, abstract = {Although the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasing worldwide, few studies have attempted to forecast these impacts on Amazon Tropical Forest. In this study, we estimated the impact of climate change on Amazonian avian assemblages considering range shifts, species loss, vulnerability of ecosystem functioning, future effectiveness of current protected areas and potential climatically stable areas for conservation actions. Species distribution modelling based on two algorithms and three different scenarios of climate change was used to forecast 501 avian species, organized on main ecosystem functions (frugivores, insectivores and nectarivores) for years 2050 and 2070. Considering the entire study area, we estimated that between 4 and 19% of the species will find no suitable habitat. Inside the currently established protected areas, species loss could be over 70%. Our results suggest that frugivores are the most sensitive guild, which could bring consequences on seed dispersal functions and on natural regeneration. Moreover, we identified the western and northern parts of the study area as climatically stable. Climate change will potentially affect avian assemblages in southeastern Amazonia with detrimental consequences to their ecosystem functions. Information provided here is essential to conservation practitioners and decision makers to help on planning their actions.}, }
@article {pmid30972894, year = {2019}, author = {McNicol, L}, title = {It is time to protect our children from climate change with a national school-based heatwave policy.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {290-291}, doi = {10.1002/hpja.170}, pmid = {30972894}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Health Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Health Promotion/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Heat Stress Disorders/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; School Health Services/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid30971717, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, R and Liang, T and Guo, J and Xie, H and Feng, Q and Aimaiti, Y}, title = {Publisher Correction: Grassland dynamics in response to climate change and human activities in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2014.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6181}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41390-z}, pmid = {30971717}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.}, }
@article {pmid30970482, year = {2019}, author = {Shen, X and Liu, B and Xue, Z and Jiang, M and Lu, X and Zhang, Q}, title = {Spatiotemporal variation in vegetation spring phenology and its response to climate change in freshwater marshes of Northeast China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {666}, number = {}, pages = {1169-1177}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.265}, pmid = {30970482}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Plant Development ; Seasons ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Understanding wetland vegetation phenology and its response to climate change is important to predict the changes of wetland vegetation in wetland regions. Using the NDVI and climate data, this work studied the spatiotemporal change of start date of vegetation growing season (SOS) and explored the possible effects of climate change on the SOS over freshwater marshes of Northeast China. The results showed that the SOS significantly advanced by 0.52 day per year throughout the freshwater marshes of Northeast China during 2001 to 2016. The significant advancing of SOS was mainly concentrated in freshwater marshes of the Khingan Mountains (the Greater Khingan Mountains and the Lesser Khingan Mountains) and central arid or semi-arid regions (Songnen plain and Liaohe plain) in Northeast China. By contrast, there were weak delay trends of SOS in freshwater marshes of Eastern Inner Mongolia region, and Sanjiang plain. We found that precipitation was a dominant factor determining the SOS in arid or semi-arid regions (Songnen plain and Liaohe plain), while temperature played a bigger role in determining the SOS in Sanjiang plain and three cold mountains of the Northeast China. During the study period, increasing precipitation in the winter and spring contributed to advancing SOS in Songnen plain and Liaohe plain; the decrease of temperature from December to April explain the delaying SOS in freshwater marshes of Sanjiang Plain; the weak warming of temperature between November and May account for the advancing SOS of freshwater marshes in three cold mountains. In freshwater marshes of cold and the most arid region of Northeast China (Eastern Inner Mongolia), the SOS was influenced by both precipitation and temperature. Decreasing precipitation between January and April, as well as temperature decreases in March and April explain the delay of SOS in freshwater marshes of Eastern Inner Mongolia region.}, }
@article {pmid30968450, year = {2019}, author = {Schachtel, A and Boos, MD}, title = {Pediatric dermatology and climate change: An argument for the pediatric subspecialist as public health advocate.}, journal = {Pediatric dermatology}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {564-566}, doi = {10.1111/pde.13819}, pmid = {30968450}, issn = {1525-1470}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Advocacy ; *Child Welfare ; *Climate Change ; Dermatologists/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Dermatology/*trends ; Humans ; Pediatrics/*trends ; Physician's Role ; Public Health ; Societies, Medical ; United States ; }, abstract = {The October 2018 report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts significant threats to human health secondary to anthropogenic global warming; children have been and will continue to be disproportionately affected by these weather-related changes. Multiple physician groups have acknowledged climate change as a public health issue, calling upon providers to educate their communities about this looming health crisis while also reducing their individual carbon footprints. A significant body of literature has also documented the adverse dermatologic consequences of a warmer planet, highlighting the importance of pediatric dermatologists in addressing climate change. Here, we summarize the rationale for the pediatric dermatologist as public health advocate, providing specific actionable items through which our specialty can positively address the climate change crisis and in turn protect the health of our patients now and in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30967094, year = {2019}, author = {Jarvie, S and Svenning, JC}, title = {Correction to 'Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change'.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1769}, pages = {20190002}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0002}, pmid = {30967094}, issn = {1471-2970}, }
@article {pmid30966984, year = {2019}, author = {Taccoen, A and Piedallu, C and Seynave, I and Perez, V and Gégout-Petit, A and Nageleisen, LM and Bontemps, JD and Gégout, JC}, title = {Background mortality drivers of European tree species: climate change matters.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1900}, pages = {20190386}, pmid = {30966984}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forests ; France ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; *Mortality ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Increases in tree mortality rates have been highlighted in different biomes over the past decades. However, disentangling the effects of climate change on the temporal increase in tree mortality from those of management and forest dynamics remains a challenge. Using a modelling approach taking tree and stand characteristics into account, we sought to evaluate the impact of climate change on background mortality for the most common European tree species. We focused on background mortality, which is the mortality observed in a stand in the absence of abrupt disturbances, to avoid confusion with mortality events unrelated to long-term changes in temperature and rainfall. We studied 372 974 trees including 7312 dead trees from forest inventory data surveyed across France between 2009 and 2015. Factors related to competition, stand characteristics, management intensity, and site conditions were the expected preponderant drivers of mortality. Taking these main drivers into account, we detected a climate change signal on 45% of the 43 studied species, explaining an average 6% of the total modelled mortality. For 18 out of the 19 species sensitive to climate change, we evidenced greater mortality with increasing temperature or decreasing rainfall. By quantifying the mortality excess linked to the current climate change for European temperate forest tree species, we provide new insights into forest vulnerability that will prove useful for adapting forest management to future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30966963, year = {2019}, author = {Kelly, M}, title = {Adaptation to climate change through genetic accommodation and assimilation of plastic phenotypes.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1768}, pages = {20180176}, pmid = {30966963}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Phenotype ; }, abstract = {Theory suggests that evolutionary changes in phenotypic plasticity could either hinder or facilitate evolutionary rescue in a changing climate. Nevertheless, the actual role of evolving plasticity in the responses of natural populations to climate change remains unresolved. Direct observations of evolutionary change in nature are rare, making it difficult to assess the relative contributions of changes in trait means versus changes in plasticity to climate change responses. To address this gap, this review explores several proxies that can be used to understand evolving plasticity in the context of climate change, including space for time substitutions, experimental evolution and tests for genomic divergence at environmentally responsive loci. Comparisons among populations indicate a prominent role for divergence in environmentally responsive traits in local adaptation to climatic gradients. Moreover, genomic comparisons among such populations have identified pervasive divergence in the regulatory regions of environmentally responsive loci. Taken together, these lines of evidence suggest that divergence in plasticity plays a prominent role in adaptation to climatic gradients over space, indicating that evolving plasticity is also likely to play a key role in adaptive responses to climate change through time. This suggests that genetic variation in plastic responses to the environment (G × E) might be an important predictor of species' vulnerabilities to climate-driven decline or extinction. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.}, }
@article {pmid30966960, year = {2019}, author = {Fuxjäger, L and Wanzenböck, S and Ringler, E and Wegner, KM and Ahnelt, H and Shama, LNS}, title = {Within-generation and transgenerational plasticity of mate choice in oceanic stickleback under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1768}, pages = {20180183}, pmid = {30966960}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Epigenesis, Genetic ; Female ; Male ; *Mating Preference, Animal ; Phenotype ; Reproduction/genetics/*physiology ; Smegmamorpha/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Plasticity, both within and across generations, can shape sexual traits involved in mate choice and reproductive success, and thus direct measures of fitness. Especially, transgenerational plasticity (TGP), where parental environment influences offspring plasticity in future environments, could compensate for otherwise negative effects of environmental change on offspring sexual traits. We conducted a mate choice experiment using stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) with different thermal histories (ambient 17°C or elevated 21°C) within and across generations under simulated ocean warming using outdoor mesocosms. Parentage analysis of egg clutches revealed that maternal developmental temperature and reproductive (mesocosm) environment affected egg size, with females that developed at 17°C laying smaller eggs in 21°C mesocosms, likely owing to metabolic costs at elevated temperature. Paternal developmental temperature interacted with the reproductive environment to influence mating success, particularly under simulated ocean warming, with males that developed at 21°C showing lower overall mating success compared with 17°C males, but higher mating success in 21°C mesocosms. Furthermore, mating success of males was influenced by the interaction between F1 developmental temperature and F0 parent acclimation temperature, demonstrating the potential role of both TGP and within-generation plasticity in shaping traits involved in sexual selection and mate choice, potentially facilitating rapid responses to environmental change. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.}, }
@article {pmid30966957, year = {2019}, author = {Bonamour, S and Chevin, LM and Charmantier, A and Teplitsky, C}, title = {Phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change: the importance of cue variation.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1768}, pages = {20180178}, pmid = {30966957}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Cues ; Forests ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; Songbirds/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity is a major mechanism of response to global change. However, current plastic responses will only remain adaptive under future conditions if informative environmental cues are still available. We briefly summarize current knowledge of the evolutionary origin and mechanistic underpinnings of environmental cues for phenotypic plasticity, before highlighting the potentially complex effects of global change on cue availability and reliability. We then illustrate some of these aspects with a case study, comparing plasticity of blue tit breeding phenology in two contrasted habitats: evergreen and deciduous forests. Using long-term datasets, we investigate the climatic factors linked to the breeding phenology of the birds and their main food source. Blue tits occupying different habitats differ extensively in the cues affecting laying date plasticity, as well as in the reliability of these cues as predictors of the putative driver of selective pressure, the date of caterpillar peak. The temporal trend for earlier laying date, detected only in the evergreen populations, is explained by increased temperature during their cue windows. Our results highlight the importance of integrating ecological mechanisms shaping variation in plasticity if we are to understand how global change will affect plasticity and its consequences for population biology. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.}, }
@article {pmid30965264, year = {2019}, author = {Pires, JCM}, title = {Negative emissions technologies: A complementary solution for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {672}, number = {}, pages = {502-514}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.004}, pmid = {30965264}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas (GHG) and its atmospheric concentration is currently 50% higher than pre-industrial levels. The continuous GHGs emissions may lead to severe and irreversible consequences in the climate system. The reduction of GHG emissions may be not enough to mitigate climate change. Consequently, besides carbon capture from large emission sources, atmospheric CO2 capture may be also required. To meet the target defined for climate change mitigation, the removal of 10 Gt·yr[-1] of CO2 globally by mid-century and 20 Gt·yr[-1] of CO2 globally by the end of century. The technologies applied with this aim are known as negative emission technologies (NETs), as they lead to achieve a negative balance of carbon in atmosphere. This paper aims to present the recent research works regarding NETs, focusing the research findings achieved by academic groups and projects. Besides several advantages, NETs present high operational cost and its scale-up should be tested to know the real effect on climate change mitigation. With current knowledge, no single process should be seen as a solution. Research efforts should be performed to evaluate and reduce NETs costs and environmental impact.}, }
@article {pmid30964399, year = {2019}, author = {Jones, R}, title = {Climate change and Indigenous Health Promotion.}, journal = {Global health promotion}, volume = {26}, number = {3_suppl}, pages = {73-81}, doi = {10.1177/1757975919829713}, pmid = {30964399}, issn = {1757-9767}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Colonialism ; *Global Health ; Health Promotion/*methods ; Health Services Accessibility ; Health Services, Indigenous/standards ; Health Status ; Human Rights ; Humans ; *Indigenous Peoples ; Personal Autonomy ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a serious threat to the health and well-being of Indigenous peoples around the world. Despite living in diverse contexts, Indigenous peoples face a number of common challenges. Disproportionate threats from climate change exist due to a range of factors including unique relationships with the natural environment, socioeconomic deprivation, a greater existing burden of disease, poorer access to and quality of health care, and political marginalization. Responses to climate change at global, national, and local levels also threaten Indigenous people's rights. While climate action presents many opportunities to improve health and reduce inequities, there is also significant potential for climate mitigation and adaptation policies to inflict harm on Indigenous peoples. An important aspect of this is the impact on traditional lands, which are acknowledged as a fundamental determinant of Indigenous health and well-being. This article seeks to elucidate the relationships between climate change and Indigenous health and to inform health promotion solutions to achieve climate justice for Indigenous peoples. The underpinning analysis is founded on a Kaupapa Māori positioning, which seeks transformative change and involves critiquing Western knowledges and structures that undermine Indigenous rights. A central theme is that anthropogenic climate change is intimately connected to the ideologies, systems and practices of colonialism, and that the impacts on Indigenous peoples can be conceptualized as an intensification of the process of colonization. It is not possible to understand and address climate-related health impacts for Indigenous peoples without examining this broader context of colonial oppression, marginalization and dispossession. The challenge for health promotion is to engage in a process of decolonization. This involves deconstructing its own systems and practices to avoid reinforcing colonialism and perpetuating inequities. It also requires health promotion practitioners to support Indigenous self-determination and recognize Indigenous knowledges as a critical foundation for climate change and health solutions.}, }
@article {pmid30963929, year = {2019}, author = {Qiu, Z and Coleman, MA and Provost, E and Campbell, AH and Kelaher, BP and Dalton, SJ and Thomas, T and Steinberg, PD and Marzinelli, EM}, title = {Future climate change is predicted to affect the microbiome and condition of habitat-forming kelp.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1896}, pages = {20181887}, pmid = {30963929}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Kelp/microbiology/*physiology ; *Microbiota ; Seawater/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Climate change is driving global declines of marine habitat-forming species through physiological effects and through changes to ecological interactions, with projected trajectories for ocean warming and acidification likely to exacerbate such impacts in coming decades. Interactions between habitat-formers and their microbiomes are fundamental for host functioning and resilience, but how such relationships will change in future conditions is largely unknown. We investigated independent and interactive effects of warming and acidification on a large brown seaweed, the kelp Ecklonia radiata, and its associated microbiome in experimental mesocosms. Microbial communities were affected by warming and, during the first week, by acidification. During the second week, kelp developed disease-like symptoms previously observed in the field. The tissue of some kelp blistered, bleached and eventually degraded, particularly under the acidification treatments, affecting photosynthetic efficiency. Microbial communities differed between blistered and healthy kelp for all treatments, except for those under future conditions of warming and acidification, which after two weeks resembled assemblages associated with healthy hosts. This indicates that changes in the microbiome were not easily predictable as the severity of future climate scenarios increased. Future ocean conditions can change kelp microbiomes and may lead to host disease, with potentially cascading impacts on associated ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30962890, year = {2019}, author = {Zhu, RB and Wang, Q and Guan, WB and Mao, Y and Tian, B and Cheng, JM and El-Kassaby, YA}, title = {Conservation of genetic diversity hotspots of the high-valued relic yellowhorn (Xanthoceras sorbifolium) considering climate change predictions.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {3251-3263}, pmid = {30962890}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Genetic structure and major climate factors may contribute to the distribution of genetic diversity of a highly valued oil tree species Xanthoceras sorbifolium (yellowhorn). Long-term over utilization along with climate change is affecting the viability of yellowhorn wild populations. To preserve the species known and unknown valuable gene pools, the identification of genetic diversity "hotspots" is a prerequisite for their consideration as in situ conservation high priority. Chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) diversity was high among 38 natural populations (H d = 0.717, K = 4.616, Tajmas' D = -0.22) and characterized by high genetic divergence (F ST = 0.765) and relatively low gene flow (N m = 0.03), indicating populations isolation reflecting the species' habitat fragmentation and inbreeding depression. Six out of the studied 38 populations are defined as genetic diversity "hotspots." The number and geographic direction of cpDNA mutation steps supported the species southwest to northeast migration history. Climatic factors such as extreme minimum temperature over 30 years indicated that the identified genetic "hotspots" are expected to experience 5°C temperature increase in next following 50 years. The results identified vulnerable genetic diversity "hotspots" and provided fundamental information for the species' future conservation and breeding activities under the anticipated climate change. More specifically, the role of breeding as a component of a gene resource management strategy aimed at fulfilling both utilization and conservation goals.}, }
@article {pmid30962375, year = {2019}, author = {Ballew, MT and Goldberg, MH and Rosenthal, SA and Gustafson, A and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Systems thinking as a pathway to global warming beliefs and attitudes through an ecological worldview.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {17}, pages = {8214-8219}, pmid = {30962375}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adult ; *Attitude ; *Communication ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Systems Analysis ; }, abstract = {Prior research has found that systems thinking, the tendency to perceive phenomena as interconnected and dynamic, is associated with a general proenvironmental orientation. However, less is known about its relationship with public understanding of climate change and/or whether this relationship varies across people with different political views. Because climate change is a highly politicized issue, it is also important to understand the extent to which systems thinking can foster acceptance of climate science across political lines. Using an online sample of US adults (n = 1,058), we tested the degree to which systems thinking predicts global warming beliefs and attitudes (e.g., believing that global warming is happening, that it is human-caused, etc.), independent of an ecological worldview (i.e., the New Ecological Paradigm). We found that although systems thinking is positively related to global warming beliefs and attitudes, the relationships are almost fully explained by an ecological worldview. Indirect effects of systems thinking are consistently strong across political ideologies and party affiliations, although slightly stronger for conservatives and Republicans than for liberals and Democrats, respectively. We did not find evidence of the converse: Systems thinking does not seem to mediate the relationship between an ecological worldview and global warming beliefs and attitudes. Together, these findings suggest that systems thinking may support the adoption of global warming beliefs and attitudes indirectly by helping to develop an ecological ethic that people should take care of and not abuse the environment.}, }
@article {pmid30962202, year = {2019}, author = {Mercer, C}, title = {How health care contributes to climate change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {14}, pages = {E403-E404}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-5722}, pmid = {30962202}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Monitoring ; Health Facility Planning/*organization &amp; administration/trends ; Health Services Research ; *Hospitals ; Humans ; Incineration/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Medical Waste/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid30959295, year = {2019}, author = {Abd-Elaty, I and Sallam, GAH and Straface, S and Scozzari, A}, title = {Effects of climate change on the design of subsurface drainage systems in coastal aquifers in arid/semi-arid regions: Case study of the Nile delta.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {672}, number = {}, pages = {283-295}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.483}, pmid = {30959295}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The influence of climate change on the availability and quality of both surface- and ground-water resources is well recognized nowadays. In particular, the mitigation of saline water intrusion mechanisms in coastal aquifers is a recurrent environmental issue. In the case of the Nile delta, the presence of sea level rise and the perspective of other human-induced stressors, such as the next operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, are threats to be taken into account for guaranteeing resilient agricultural practices within the future possible scenarios. Subsurface drainage offers a practical solution to the problem of upward artesian water movement and the simultaneous downward flow of excess irrigation water, to mitigate the salinization in the root zone. Subsurface draining systems can contribute to mitigate the vulnerability to climate change and to the increased anthropic pressure insofar they are able to receive the incremented flow rate due to the foreseen scenarios of sea level rise, recharge and subsidence. This paper introduces a rational design of subsurface drainage systems in coastal aquifers, taking into account the increment of flow in the draining pipes due to future possible conditions of sea level rise, artificial recharge and subsidence within time horizons that are compatible with the expected lifespan of a buried drainage system. The approach proposed in this paper is characterized by the assessment of the incremental flow through the drains as a function of various possible scenarios at different time horizons. Our calculations show that the impact on the discharge into the existing subsurface drainage system under the new foreseen conditions is anything but negligible. Thus, future climate-related scenarios deeply impact the design of such hydraulic structures, and must be taken into account in the frame of the next water management strategies for safeguarding agricultural activities in the Nile delta and in similar coastal contexts.}, }
@article {pmid30958243, year = {2018}, author = {Meade, J and VanDerWal, J and Storlie, C and Williams, S and Gourret, A and Krockenberger, A and Welbergen, JA}, title = {Substantial reduction in thermo-suitable microhabitat for a rainforest marsupial under climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {20180189}, pmid = {30958243}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Marsupialia/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Rainforest ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Increases in mean temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change increase the frequency and severity of temperature extremes. Although extreme temperature events are likely to become increasingly important drivers of species' response to climate change, the impacts are poorly understood owing mainly to a lack of understanding of species' physiological responses to extreme temperatures. The physiological response of Pseudochirops archeri (green ringtail possum) to temperature extremes has been well studied, demonstrating that heterothermy is used to reduce evaporative water loss at temperatures greater than 30°C. Dehydration is likely to limit survival when animals are exposed to a critical thermal regime of ≥30°C, for ≥5 h, for ≥4 consecutive days. In this study, we use this physiological information to assess P. archeri's vulnerability to climate change. We identify areas of current thermo-suitable habitat (validated using sightings), then estimate future thermo-suitable habitat for P. archeri, under four emission scenarios. Our projections indicate that up to 86% of thermo-suitable habitat could be lost by 2085, a serious conservation concern for the species. We demonstrate the potential applicability of our approach for generating spatio-temporally explicit predictions of the vulnerability of species to extreme temperature events, providing a focus for efficient and targeted conservation and habitat restoration management.}, }
@article {pmid30956567, year = {2019}, author = {Holman, IP and Brown, C and Carter, TR and Harrison, PA and Rounsevell, M}, title = {Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {711-721}, pmid = {30956567}, issn = {1436-3798}, abstract = {Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid30954727, year = {2019}, author = {Ashrafuzzaman, M and Furini, GL}, title = {Climate change and human health linkages in the context of globalization: An overview from global to southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {127}, number = {}, pages = {402-411}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.03.020}, pmid = {30954727}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropod Vectors ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; Developing Countries ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; *Internationality ; Risk Factors ; Tidal Waves ; }, abstract = {This article attempts to analyze the main impacts of climate change on public health starting with global and going through local by analyzing coastal communities in the area of influence of Sundarbans, located in southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. In dealing with paramount health problems caused by climate change, we discuss what are the major challenges faced by different actors. From the opinion of globalization and world system theory it will be argued that developing countries are facing major defiance in terms of mitigation and adaptation, including human health problems. Those living in developing world, as the case of Bangladesh, responsible for the lowest contributions to climate change, are already suffering the most. This paper is based on bibliographical and statistical review, and uses primary data collected from field and secondary from publications, books, scientific journals, international reports. In this paper we also focused that poor countries shall not be liable for the damages caused by carbon emissions already trapped into atmosphere, a historic problem caused by developed world, so we expect that multi-governance platforms should make mutual efforts to promote health in partnership with local institutions in order to solve the climatic crisis.}, }
@article {pmid30949718, year = {2019}, author = {Herrmann, A and de Jong, L and Kowalski, C and Sauerborn, R}, title = {[Health Co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures-how houeseholds and policy makers can benefit].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {556-564}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02929-7}, pmid = {30949718}, issn = {1437-1588}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Germany ; *Health Behavior ; }, abstract = {In discussions on climate change and health, negative impacts of climate change usually dominate the discussion. However to motivate households and policy makers to climate action, one should also point out the health opportunities of climate change mitigation measures.We draw on the current literature to present the concept of health co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures (A). In the empirical part of the paper we first use a quantitative and qualitative text analysis to look at the link of climate change and health in EU legislation from 1990-2015 (B). We then describe results from qualitative in-depth interviews with 18 German households, in which we investigate how knowledge of health co-benefits influences households in implementing climate action. The interviews were part of a bigger European mixed-methods study.A: From the household perspective, we define direct health co-benefits, which can be influenced and experienced by an individual, and indirect health co-benefits, which are dependent on societal action. B: Health is mentioned in EU climate change legislation. However, EU legislation only touches upon health co-benefits in general and doesn't mention direct health co-benefits at all. C: Households consider health co-benefits in their lifestyle decisions. Yet, as there are many determinants of lifestyle, information on health co-benefits alone does not seem to be sufficient to trigger climate friendly and healthy behavior.First, synergies between health and climate change mitigation need to be recognized on a political level. Then, effective intersectoral policies need to be implemented to support households on multiple levels in implementing healthy and climate-friendly lifestyles.}, }
@article {pmid30947054, year = {2019}, author = {Naujokienė, V and Šarauskis, E and Bleizgys, R and Sasnauskienė, J}, title = {Soil biotreatment effectiveness for reducing global warming potential from main polluting tillage operations in life cycle assessment phase.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {671}, number = {}, pages = {805-817}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.338}, pmid = {30947054}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Environmental Pollutants ; Environmental Pollution/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Global Warming ; Ozone ; Soil ; }, abstract = {In order to reduce global warming potential (GWP) due to anthropogenic and natural factors in the cultivation of winter wheat and rapeseed, proved effectiveness of soil biotreatment with different composition of bio-solutions. It was reduced greenhouse gases (GHG) through life cycle impact categories from the main polluting agricultural operations on deeply lukewarm soaked soil. According to the impact diapason evaluated the main indicators such as human toxicity air (HTA), ecotoxicity water chronic (EWC), global warming potential, ecotoxicity water acute (EWA), ozone formation (OF), human toxicity water (HTW), ecotoxicity soil chronic (ESC), human toxicity soil (HTS), terrestrial eutrophication (TE), acidification (A). Assessed researches for three seasons which carried out in production experimental areas. It was appreciated in interrelated stages according to LST EN ISO 14040:2007 standard. Mass balance for one functional unit (FU) was tonne of wheat and rapeseed. SimaPro 8.05 life cycle assessment (LCA) Software was used for comparing soil biotreatment efectiveness using different bio-solutions and its mixes with control. The aim of the assessment - to prove the soil biotreatment effectiveness for reducing main life cycle indicators from tillage operations. It was identificated that phase of field operation is one of the main factor to the global impact. Disc harrowing consists approximately 26%, ploughing - 40% of all operations. Identified effectiveness of soil biotreatment, wheat and rapeseed rotation for reduction of global warming potential. Discovered reduction interdependencies of main life cycle assessement impact categories. The largest CO2 eq reducing established from primary - disc harrowing 12-15 cm and secondary - ploughing 23-25 cm soil tillage. It was fixed till approximately 15% in mixed bacterial and non-bacterial bio-solution after first soil biotreatment. Till approximately 8% CO2 eq reduction was in mixed bio-solutions after second biotreatment. The percentage highest soil biotreatment effectiveness till approximately 30% assessed after third biotreatment compared to usual technology. Soil biotreatment effectiveness in reducing green house gases (GHG) proved first year in 86%, second year in 43%, and third year in 71% of all used bio-solutions.}, }
@article {pmid30946811, year = {2019}, author = {Cissé, G}, title = {Food-borne and water-borne diseases under climate change in low- and middle-income countries: Further efforts needed for reducing environmental health exposure risks.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {194}, number = {}, pages = {181-188}, pmid = {30946811}, issn = {1873-6254}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Asia/epidemiology ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Disabled Persons ; *Environmental Health ; Foodborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Public Health ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Risk Factors ; Sanitation ; *Water Microbiology ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {This paper provides a view of the major facts and figures related to infectious diseases with a focus on food-borne and water-borne diseases and their link with environmental factors and climate change. The global burden of food-borne diseases for 31 selected hazards was estimated by the World Health Organization at 33 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2010 with 40% of this burden concentrated among children under 5 years of age. The highest burden per population of food-borne diseases is found in Africa, followed by Southeast Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean sub-regions. Unsafe water used for the cleaning and processing of food is a key risk factors contributing to food-borne diseases. The role of quality and quantity of water to the general burden of infectious diseases deserves attention, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, as its effects go beyond the food chain. Water-related infectious diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, and climate change effects will exacerbate the challenges for the public health sector for both food-borne and water-borne diseases. Selected case studies from Africa and Asia show that (i) climate change extreme events, such as floods, may exacerbate the risks for infectious diseases spreading through water systems, and (ii) improvements related to drinking water, sanitation and hygiene could result in a significant reduction of intestinal parasitic infections among school-aged children. There is a need to better anticipate the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases and fostering multi-stakeholder engagement and multi-sectoral collaborations for integrated interventions at schools, community and household levels. The paper calls for giving priority to improving the environmental conditions affecting food-borne and water-borne infectious diseases under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30944502, year = {2019}, author = {Clay, N and King, B}, title = {Smallholders' uneven capacities to adapt to climate change amid Africa's 'green revolution': Case study of Rwanda's crop intensification program.}, journal = {World development}, volume = {116}, number = {}, pages = {1-14}, pmid = {30944502}, issn = {0305-750X}, support = {T32 HD007168/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Development programs and policies can influence smallholder producers' abilities to adapt to climate change. However, gaps remain in understanding how households' adaptive capacities can become uneven. This paper investigates how development transitions-such as the recent adoption of 'green revolution' agricultural policies throughout sub-Saharan Africa-intersect with cross-scale social-environmental processes to unevenly shape smallholders' adaptive capacities and adaptation pathways. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative material from a multi-season study in Rwanda, we investigate smallholder adaptation processes amid a suite of rural development interventions. Our study finds that adaptive capacities arise differentially across livelihood groups in the context of evolving environmental, social, and political economic processes. We show how social institutions play key roles in shaping differential adaptation pathways by enabling and/or constraining opportunities for smallholders to adapt livelihood and land use strategies. Specifically, Rwanda's Crop Intensification Program enables some wealthier households to adapt livelihoods by generating income through commercial agriculture. At the same time, deactivation of local risk management institutions has diminished climate risk management options for most households. To build and employ alternate livelihood practices such as commercial agriculture and planting woodlots for charcoal production, smallholders must negotiate new institutions, a prerequisite for which is access to capitals (land, labor, and nonfarm income). Those without entitlements to these are pulled deeper into poverty with each successive climatic shock. This illustrates that adaptive capacity is not a static, quantifiable entity that exists in households. We argue that reconceptualizing adaptive capacity as a dynamic, social-environmental process that emerges in places can help clarify complex linkages among development policies, livelihoods, and adaptation pathways. To ensure more equitable and climate-resilient agricultural development, we stress the need to reformulate policies with careful attention to how power structures and entrenched social inequalities can lead to smallholders' uneven capacities to adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30944475, year = {2019}, author = {Hughes, TP and Kerry, JT and Baird, AH and Connolly, SR and Chase, TJ and Dietzel, A and Hill, T and Hoey, AS and Hoogenboom, MO and Jacobson, M and Kerswell, A and Madin, JS and Mieog, A and Paley, AS and Pratchett, MS and Torda, G and Woods, RM}, title = {Global warming impairs stock-recruitment dynamics of corals.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {568}, number = {7752}, pages = {387-390}, pmid = {30944475}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Australia ; *Coral Reefs ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Larva/physiology ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Changes in disturbance regimes due to climate change are increasingly challenging the capacity of ecosystems to absorb recurrent shocks and reassemble afterwards, escalating the risk of widespread ecological collapse of current ecosystems and the emergence of novel assemblages[1-3]. In marine systems, the production of larvae and recruitment of functionally important species are fundamental processes for rebuilding depleted adult populations, maintaining resilience and avoiding regime shifts in the face of rising environmental pressures[4,5]. Here we document a regional-scale shift in stock-recruitment relationships of corals along the Great Barrier Reef-the world's largest coral reef system-following unprecedented back-to-back mass bleaching events caused by global warming. As a consequence of mass mortality of adult brood stock in 2016 and 2017 owing to heat stress[6], the amount of larval recruitment declined in 2018 by 89% compared to historical levels. For the first time, brooding pocilloporids replaced spawning acroporids as the dominant taxon in the depleted recruitment pool. The collapse in stock-recruitment relationships indicates that the low resistance of adult brood stocks to repeated episodes of coral bleaching is inexorably tied to an impaired capacity for recovery, which highlights the multifaceted processes that underlie the global decline of coral reefs. The extent to which the Great Barrier Reef will be able to recover from the collapse in stock-recruitment relationships remains uncertain, given the projected increased frequency of extreme climate events over the next two decades[7].}, }
@article {pmid30940812, year = {2019}, author = {Kou-Giesbrecht, S and Menge, D}, title = {Nitrogen-fixing trees could exacerbate climate change under elevated nitrogen deposition.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1493}, pmid = {30940812}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Biological nitrogen fixation can fuel CO2 sequestration by forests but can also stimulate soil emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas. Here we use a theoretical model to suggest that symbiotic nitrogen-fixing trees could either mitigate (CO2 sequestration outweighs soil N2O emissions) or exacerbate (vice versa) climate change relative to non-fixing trees, depending on their nitrogen fixation strategy (the degree to which they regulate nitrogen fixation to balance nitrogen supply and demand) and on nitrogen deposition. The model posits that nitrogen-fixing trees could exacerbate climate change globally relative to non-fixing trees by the radiative equivalent of 0.77 Pg C yr[-1] under nitrogen deposition rates projected for 2030. This value is highly uncertain, but its magnitude suggests that this subject requires further study and that improving the representation of biological nitrogen fixation in climate models could substantially decrease estimates of the extent to which forests will mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30936173, year = {2019}, author = {Vogel, L}, title = {Why aren't more doctors talking about climate change?.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {13}, pages = {E375-E376}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-5731}, pmid = {30936173}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Physicians ; }, }
@article {pmid30934119, year = {2019}, author = {Salick, J and Fang, Z and Hart, R}, title = {Rapid changes in eastern Himalayan alpine flora with climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {106}, number = {4}, pages = {520-530}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1263}, pmid = {30934119}, issn = {1537-2197}, support = {IGERT DGE#0549369//National Geographic Society/International ; }, mesh = {*Altitude ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: With biodiversity and rates of climate change among the highest, the eastern Himalaya are critical for understanding the interaction of these two variables. However, there is a dearth of longitudinal data sets that address the effects of climate change on the exceptional alpine biodiversity of the Himalaya.<br><br>METHODS: We established permanent alpine vegetation monitoring plots in three mountain chains of the Hengduan Mountains, the easternmost Himalaya, which have warmed 0.03-0.05&#xb0;C yr[-1] since 1985. Recently, we resampled plots (176 1-m[2] quadrat plots and 88 sections of 11 summits in three Hengduan mountain chains) to measure changes in vegetation after 7 years.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Over 7 years, Tibetan alpine vegetation increased in number of species (+8 species/summit; +2.3 species/m[2]), in frequency (+47.8 plants/m[2]), and in diversity (+1.6 effective species/m[2]). Stepwise regressions indicated that warmer temperatures, southerly aspects, and higher elevations were associated with greater increases in these vegetation metrics. Unexpectedly, Himalayan endemic species increased (+1.4 species/m[2] ; +8.5 plants/m[2]), especially on higher-elevation summits. In contrast, the increase in relative abundance of non-alpine species was greater at lower-elevation summits. Plants used by local Tibetans also increased (+1.3 species/m[2] ; +32 plants/m[2]).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As in other alpine areas, biodiversity is increasing with climate change in the Himalaya. Unlike other areas, endemic species are proliferating at the highest summits and are indicators of change.}, }
@article {pmid30931415, year = {2019}, author = {He, X and Burgess, KS and Gao, LM and Li, DZ}, title = {Distributional responses to climate change for alpine species of Cyananthus and Primula endemic to the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains.}, journal = {Plant diversity}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {26-32}, pmid = {30931415}, issn = {2468-2659}, abstract = {Global warming increases the vulnerability of plants, especially alpine herbaceous species, to local extinction. In this study, we collected species distribution information from herbarium specimens for ten selected Cyananthus and Primula alpine species endemic to the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains (HHM). Combined with climate data from WorldClim, we used Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt) to project distributional changes from the current time period to 2070. Our predictions indicate that, under a wide range of climate change scenarios, the distributions of all species will shift upward in elevation and northward in latitude; furthermore, under these scenarios, species will expand the size of their range. For the majority of the species in this study, habitats are available to mitigate upward and northward shifts that are projected to be induced by changing climate. If current climate projections, however, increase in magnitude or continue to increase past our projection dates, suitable habitat for future occupation by alpine species will be limited as we predict range contraction or less range expansion for some of the species under more intensified climate scenarios. Our study not only underscores the value of herbarium source information for future climate model projections but also suggests that future studies on the effects of climate change on alpine species should include additional biotic and abiotic factors to provide greater resolution of the local dynamics associated with species persistence under a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid30928797, year = {2019}, author = {Wen, Y and Liu, X and Bai, Y and Sun, Y and Yang, J and Lin, K and Pei, F and Yan, Y}, title = {Determining the impacts of climate change and urban expansion on terrestrial net primary production in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {240}, number = {}, pages = {75-83}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.071}, pmid = {30928797}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Tibet ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Climate change and urbanization strongly affect the variations of terrestrial net primary production (NPP), but the relative contributions of these two factors to NPP changes have not been determined yet (especially on a macroscale). In this study, spatial-temporal variations of NPP in China from 2000 to 2010 were estimated using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model, and the effects induced by urbanization and climate change were quantified. The obtained results showed that during the study period, the NPP in China exhibited an annual increase of 0.03 Pg C accompanied by large spatial heterogeneities. During the whole study period, the urban area in China increased by 16.44 × 10[3] km[2], and the corresponding NPP losses amounted to 11.60 × 10[-3] Pg C. Urban expansion significantly offset the climate change-induced NPP increases and worsened NPP decreases (the offsetting ratio calculated for China was 5.42%, and its exact magnitudes varied by province). The largest NPP variations were observed over the regions with rapid urban expansion, whose contribution ratio was 32.20% for China and exceeded 30% for most provinces. Climate change contributed considerably to the NPP variations in both the newly urbanized (30.45%) and purely vegetated (46.92%) areas, but its contribution ratios were slightly lower than those of residual factors. Moreover, climate change strongly affected the NPP levels over the arid and semi-arid regions as well as over the Tibet Plateau; however, residual factors dominated the NPP variations over the central and southeast China. Our study highlights a significant role of urbanization in driving terrestrial NPP variations on a macroscale and provides a new perspective on disentangling the impacts of external factors on NPP values.}, }
@article {pmid30925436, year = {2019}, author = {Churakova Sidorova, OV and Lehmann, MM and Siegwolf, RTW and Saurer, M and Fonti, MV and Schmid, L and Timofeeva, G and Rinne-Garmston, KT and Bigler, C}, title = {Compound-specific carbon isotope patterns in needles of conifer tree species from the Swiss National Park under recent climate change.}, journal = {Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB}, volume = {139}, number = {}, pages = {264-272}, doi = {10.1016/j.plaphy.2019.03.016}, pmid = {30925436}, issn = {1873-2690}, mesh = {Carbon Isotopes/*analysis ; Climate Change ; Parks, Recreational ; Pinus/*metabolism ; Trees/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Elevated CO2 along with rising temperature and water deficits can lead to changes in tree physiology and leaf biochemistry. These changes can increase heat- and drought-induced tree mortality. We aim to reveal the impacts of climatic drivers on individual compounds at the leaf level among European larch (Larix decidua) and mountain pine (Pinus mugo) trees, which are widely distributed at high elevations. We investigated seasonal carbon isotope composition (δ[13]C) and concentration patterns of carbohydrates and organic acids in needles of these two different species from a case study in the Swiss National Park (SNP). We found that average and minimum air temperatures were the main climatic drivers of seasonal variation of δ[13]C in sucrose and glucose as well as in concentrations of carbohydrates and citric acid/citrate in needles of both tree species. The impact of seasonal climatic drivers on larch and mountain pine trees at the needle level is in line with our earlier study in this region for long-term changes at the tree-ring level. We conclude that the species-specific changes in δ[13]C and concentrations of carbohydrates and organic acids are sensitive indicators of changes in the metabolic pathways occurring as a result of climatic changes.}, }
@article {pmid30923847, year = {2019}, author = {Berger, N and Lindemann, AK and Böl, GF}, title = {[Public perception of climate change and implications for risk communication].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {612-619}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02930-0}, pmid = {30923847}, issn = {1437-1588}, mesh = {Awareness ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; Germany ; *Public Opinion ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Man-made climate change is associated with several weather and environmental changes that can influence the extent of certain health risks. The article gives an overview of the challenges of communicating these health risks. Theoretical considerations are linked with the results of a representative population survey, in which 1018 participants aged 14 years and above were polled about their perception of climate change and its associated health risks.According to the survey results, the majority of the population is convinced that climate change is actually taking place. However, the data suggest that respondents regard the topic with psychological distance. Health risks associated with climate change also play a relatively minor role in the participants' perception.The theoretical considerations in connection with the empirical results show that targeted communication measures are needed to enhance awareness of the health risks associated with climate change among the general public. This requires not only a comprehensive provision of information, but also instructions and action plans for the practical implementation of that knowledge. Communication measures should take into account factors that can influence risk perception and the willingness to act. They should also be embedded in a strategic communication concept that allows different target groups to be addressed.}, }
@article {pmid30923845, year = {2019}, author = {Rickerts, V}, title = {[Climate change and systemic fungal infections].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {646-651}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-019-02931-z}, pmid = {30923845}, issn = {1437-1588}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cryptococcosis ; Cryptococcus gattii ; Germany ; Humans ; Mycoses/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change may cause profound and complex changes in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Obligate pathogenic fungi causing endemic mycoses and the agents of cryptococcosis are environmental pathogens adapted to environmental niches. They may be exposed to changing climatic conditions, which may change the epidemiology of human infections.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To review documented changes in the epidemiology of endemic fungal infections and cryptococcosis. To review evidence that changing climate is a&#xa0;potential mechanism for changes in the epidemiology of these infections.<br><br>METHODS: A&#xa0;selective literature review focusing on endemic mycoses and cryptococcosis.<br><br>RESULTS: Changes in endemic regions of infections caused by C.&#xa0;gattii and selected endemic mycoses have been well documented. Significant increases in the incidence of infections have been demonstrated for some areas. Climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events), changes in land use, distribution of potential host animals, and global trade routes are discussed as contributory factors.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Improved surveillance of fungal infections of humans and animals including molecular typing of clinical and environmental isolates is necessary to understand the epidemiology of these infections. The characterization of environmental niches, mechanisms of distribution of fungi, and fungal adaptation mechanisms are needed to guide prevention strategies.}, }
@article {pmid30921514, year = {2019}, author = {Verheyen, J and Delnat, V and Stoks, R}, title = {Increased Daily Temperature Fluctuations Overrule the Ability of Gradual Thermal Evolution to Offset the Increased Pesticide Toxicity under Global Warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {8}, pages = {4600-4608}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.8b07166}, pmid = {30921514}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Animals ; *Chlorpyrifos ; Global Warming ; *Odonata ; *Pesticides ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The widespread evidence that global warming can increase species sensitivities to chemical toxicants, and vice versa, and the recent insight that thermal evolution may mitigate these effects is crucial to predict the future impact of toxicants in a warming world. Nevertheless, a major component of global warming, the predicted increase in daily temperature fluctuations (DTFs), has been ignored at the interface of evolutionary ecotoxicology and global change biology. We studied whether 4 °C warming and a 5 °C DTF increase (to 10 °C DTF) magnified the negative impact of the insecticide chlorpyrifos (CPF) in larvae of low- and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. While 4 °C warming only increased CPF-induced mortality in high-latitude larvae, the high (10 °C) DTF increased CPF-induced larval mortality at both latitudes. CPF reduced the heat tolerance; however, this was buffered by latitude-specific thermal adaptation to both mean temperature and DTF. Integrating our results in a space-for-time substitution indicated that gradual thermal evolution in high-latitude larvae may offset the negative effects of CPF on heat tolerance under warming, unless the expected DTF increase is taken into account. Our results highlight the crucial importance of jointly integrating DTFs and thermal evolution to improve risk assessment of toxicants under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid30921321, year = {2019}, author = {Ryan, SJ and Carlson, CJ and Mordecai, EA and Johnson, LR}, title = {Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {e0007213}, pmid = {30921321}, issn = {1935-2735}, support = {U01 CK000510/CK/NCEZID CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Aedes/*growth &amp; development ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Global Health ; Humans ; Mosquito Vectors/*growth &amp; development ; Risk Assessment ; Temperature ; Virus Diseases/*epidemiology/*transmission ; }, abstract = {Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30919662, year = {2020}, author = {Langkulsen, U and Promsakha Na Sakolnakhon, K and James, N}, title = {Climate change and dengue risk in central region of Thailand.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {327-335}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2019.1599100}, pmid = {30919662}, issn = {1369-1619}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Public Health ; Risk Factors ; Spatial Analysis ; Thailand/epidemiology ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Dengue poses a huge public health threat. It places physical and financial burden on individuals affected, family, and national health systems. This descriptive study aimed for two specific objectives; to investigate the weather effects on dengue incidence and to estimate level of risk in the central region of Thailand. It utilized a 10-year population level dengue morbidity data and meteorological data from 2007 to 2016. Kriging method was used to interpolate a weighted risk factor upon a 5-point risk estimate was developed for estimating area risk on a 5-point scale. The findings showed that 2 out of 16 provinces (12.5%) are strong to very strong risk areas for dengue, including Bangkok and Nonthaburi provinces. The study revealed that the impact of La Niña and El Niño on increased dengue incidence and risk level in Bangkok. We recommend further studies to establish intersections of dengue disease and social determinants of health.}, }
@article {pmid30917146, year = {2019}, author = {Parker, L and Bourgoin, C and Martinez-Valle, A and Läderach, P}, title = {Vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change: The development of a pan-tropical Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment to inform sub-national decision making.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {e0213641}, pmid = {30917146}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Decision Making ; Droughts ; Floods ; *Food Supply ; Geographic Information Systems ; Geography ; Health Policy ; Nicaragua ; Public Policy ; *Risk Assessment ; Rural Population ; Tropical Climate ; Uganda ; Vietnam ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {As climate change continues to exert increasing pressure upon the livelihoods and agricultural sector of many developing and developed nations, a need exists to understand and prioritise at the sub national scale which areas and communities are most vulnerable. The purpose of this study is to develop a robust, rigorous and replicable methodology that is flexible to data limitations and spatially prioritizes the vulnerability of agriculture and rural livelihoods to climate change. We have applied the methodology in Vietnam, Uganda and Nicaragua, three contrasting developing countries that are particularly threatened by climate change. We conceptualize vulnerability to climate change following the widely adopted combination of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity. We used Ecocrop and Maxent ecological models under a high emission climate scenario to assess the sensitivity of the main food security and cash crops to climate change. Using a participatory approach, we identified exposure to natural hazards and the main indicators of adaptive capacity, which were modelled and analysed using geographic information systems. We finally combined the components of vulnerability using equal-weighting to produce a crop specific vulnerability index and a final accumulative score. We have mapped the hotspots of climate change vulnerability and identified the underlying driving indicators. For example, in Vietnam we found the Mekong delta to be one of the vulnerable regions due to a decline in the climatic suitability of rice and maize, combined with high exposure to flooding, sea level rise and drought. However, the region is marked by a relatively high adaptive capacity due to developed infrastructure and comparatively high levels of education. The approach and information derived from the study informs public climate change policies and actions, as vulnerability assessments are the bases of any National Adaptation Plans (NAP), National Determined Contributions (NDC) and for accessing climate finance.}, }
@article {pmid30915801, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, YB and Liu, YL and Qin, H and Meng, QX}, title = {[Prediction on spatial migration of suitable distribution of Elaeagnus mollis under climate change conditions in Shanxi Province, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {496-502}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201902.040}, pmid = {30915801}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Elaeagnaceae ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on biodiversity and its adaptation will directly affect the efficiency of biodiversity conservation. Predicting spatial variation of suitable habitats of threatened species under future climate change has important theoretical and practical significance for biodiversity conservation. In this study, we predicted the suitable distribution of Elaeagnus mollis, an endemic endangered plant in China, under climate change at regional scales. Then, we simulated the spatial variation and migration tend of suitable distribution under different climate change scenarios by spatial analysis. The results from Maxent model showed that the two suitable distribution areas of E. mollis presented different migration trends under the future climate change scenarios: the suitable areas of Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction, while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate to high elevation. Analysis of the spatial pattern change of the suitable areas indicated that the areas with obvious change occurred at the boundary of the suitable areas of E. mollis, including new suitable area and lost suitable area. The new suitable areas were scattered in the marginal of the original, with the increase rate of 9.1% to 20.9%, and the lost suitable areas were concentrated in the northern Lyuliang Mountain suitable areas and the southeast Zhongtiao Mountain suitable areas, with the loss rate of 16.4% to 31.1%. These regions were more sensitive to climate change. Using the classification statistical tool of Zonal, we found that the central points of the Lyuliang Mountain suitable areas showed southward migration trend under the future climate change, with the maximum migration distance of 7.451 km, while the center point of the Zhongtiao Mountain suitable areas showed migration trend to the northwest, with the maximum migration distance of 8.284 km. Our results indicated that the response of E. mollis distribution in Shanxi to climate change was intense.}, }
@article {pmid30914147, year = {2019}, author = {Chaverra, A and Wieters, E and Foggo, A and Knights, AM}, title = {Removal of intertidal grazers by human harvesting leads to alteration of species interactions, community structure and resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {146}, number = {}, pages = {57-65}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.03.003}, pmid = {30914147}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Biota ; Chile ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecological Parameter Monitoring ; Herbivory ; Humans ; Mollusca ; Oceans and Seas ; Seaweed ; }, abstract = {Extreme fluctuations in abiotic conditions can induce a biological stress response (e.g. bleaching) detrimental to an organism's health. In some instances, organisms can recover if conditions are alleviated, such as through co-occurrence with other species that confer protection. Biodiverse, multitrophic communities are increasingly recognised as important promoters of species persistence and resilience under environmental change. On intertidal shores, the role of grazers as top-down determinants of algal community structure is well recognised. Similarly, the harvesting of grazers for human consumption is increasingly prevalent with potential to greatly alter the community dynamics. Here, we assess how differences in harvesting pressure of grazers under three management regimes (no-take; managed access; open-access) alters the trophic interactions between grazers, and algal communities. Grazer density and body size frequencies were different among regimes leading to changes in the photosynthetic performance and recovery of crustose coralline algae (CCA) post-bleaching, as well as their presence altering the strength of interactions between species. The exclusion of grazers from patches using cages led to different emergent communities and reduced negative correlations between taxa. The absence of larger grazers (>9 cm) at the managed access site led to macroalgal overgrowth of bleached CCA negatively affecting its recovery, whereas no-take or open-access led to a moderated algal growth and a shift from competitive to facilitative interactions between algal species. Given that CCA play an important role in the population growth and development of other species, the choice of management measure should be carefully considered before implementation, depending on objectives.}, }
@article {pmid30912234, year = {2019}, author = {Mariani, M and Fletcher, MS and Haberle, S and Chin, H and Zawadzki, A and Jacobsen, G}, title = {Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {2030-2042}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14609}, pmid = {30912234}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cupressaceae ; Ecosystem ; Fagaceae ; *Fires ; *Rainforest ; Tasmania ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation-climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire-sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon "montane rainforest") as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high-resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid30911069, year = {2019}, author = {Jara, M and García-Roa, R and Escobar, LE and Torres-Carvajal, O and Pincheira-Donoso, D}, title = {Alternative reproductive adaptations predict asymmetric responses to climate change in lizards.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {5093}, pmid = {30911069}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/physiology ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Body Temperature ; *Climate Change ; Cold Climate ; Lizards ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change ranks among the major global-scale threats to modern biodiversity. Extinction risks are known to increase via the interactions between rapid climatic alterations and environmentally-sensitive species traits that fail to adapt to those changes. Accumulating evidence reveals the influence of ecophysiological, ecological and phenological factors as drivers underlying demographic collapses that lead to population extinctions. However, the extent to which life-history traits influence population responses to climate change remains largely unexplored. The emerging 'cul-de-sac hypothesis' predicts that reptilian viviparity ('live-bearing' reproduction), a 'key innovation' facilitating historical invasions of cold climates, increases extinction risks under progressively warming climates compared to oviparous reproduction - as warming advances polewards/mountainwards, historically cold-climates shrink, leading viviparous species to face demographic collapses. We present the first large-scale test of this prediction based on multiple lizard radiations and on future projections of climate-based ecological niche models. Viviparous species were found to experience stronger elevational range shifts (and potentially increased extinctions) in coming decades, compared to oviparous lizards. Therefore, our analyses support the hypothesis's fundamental prediction that elevational shifts are more severe in viviparous species, and highlight the role that life-history adaptations play in the responses of biodiversity to ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30910789, year = {2019}, author = {Kemple, T}, title = {Toolkit for GPs to take action on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {364}, number = {}, pages = {l1342}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.l1342}, pmid = {30910789}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid30909476, year = {2019}, author = {Mukamuhirwa, A and Persson Hovmalm, H and Bolinsson, H and Ortiz, R and Nyamangyoku, O and Johansson, E}, title = {Concurrent Drought and Temperature Stress in Rice-A Possible Result of the Predicted Climate Change: Effects on Yield Attributes, Eating Characteristics, and Health Promoting Compounds.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {30909476}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; *Droughts ; *Eating ; Edible Grain ; *Health Promotion ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Rwanda ; }, abstract = {Despite the likely increasing co-occurrence of drought and heat stress, not least in equatorial regions, due to climate change, little is known about the combinational effect of these stresses on rice productivity and quality. This study evaluated the impact of simultaneous drought and temperature stress on growth, grain yield, and quality characteristics of seven rice cultivars from Rwanda, grown in climate chambers. Two temperature ranges-23/26 °C night/day and 27/30 °C night/day-together with single or repeated drought treatments, were applied during various plant developmental stages. Plant development and yield were highly influenced by drought, while genotype impacted the quality characteristics. The combination of a high temperature with drought at the seedling and tillering stages resulted in zero panicles for all evaluated cultivars. The cultivar 'Intsindagirabigega' was most tolerant to drought, while 'Zong geng' was the most sensitive. A "stress memory" was recorded for 'Mpembuke' and 'Ndamirabahinzi', and these cultivars also had a high content of bioactive compounds, while 'Jyambere' showed a high total protein content. Thus, climate change may severely impact rice production. The exploitation of genetic diversity to breed novel rice cultivars that combine drought and heat stress tolerance with high nutritional values is a must to maintain food security.}, }
@article {pmid30909203, year = {2019}, author = {Ardalan, A and Belay, GD and Assen, M and Hosseinzadeh-Attar, MJ and Khoei, EM and Ostadtaghizadeh, A}, title = {Impact of climate change on community health and resilience in Ethiopia: A review article.}, journal = {Human antibodies}, volume = {27}, number = {S1}, pages = {11-22}, doi = {10.3233/HAB-190364}, pmid = {30909203}, issn = {1875-869X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Disasters ; Droughts ; Ethiopia ; Family Characteristics ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Nutritional Status ; Nutritional Support ; *Public Health ; Resilience, Psychological ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Drought is a serious issue which might be caused by climate change that could create famine and health problems. Drought reduces air quality, increases fungal infestation, reduces people hand washing, affects mental health, leads to malnutrition by decreasing agricultural production, and increases diseases transmitted by insects. This study aimed to determine and describe community health status through building drought resilience in Ethiopia.<br><br>METHODS: This review was conducted based on the available peer-reviewed articles that were published from January 2004 to December 2018 Online databases from PubMed, MEDLINE, Scopus, EMBASE and Google Scholar were searched for studies related to the building drought and community health resilience at different regions of Ethiopia that were published in English language. The search was made by using "Emergency disaster", "prevention", "preparedness", "response", "recovery", "drought", "food insecurity", "coping strategies" and "drought health policy" as keywords.<br><br>RESULTS: Most of the reviewed articles deal with the impact of climate change on the human health in relation to food security. The associated factors of the impact of drought on food security is basically due to lack of irrigation and farmland, the scarcity of water due to the direct effect of drought, flood, severe soil erosion, livestock dispossession, family size of the household and literacy of the households. Various coping strategies were employed by the households to alleviate the high and continued food insecurity problem such as reducing the number and amount of meal, scrounging cash and grain, searching for off-farm and non-farm jobs, getting food aid, vending of livestock, and partake in food for work programs.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings explored components of the coping strategies to the building resilience create fruitful health conditions for the food insecure household. The effect of agricultural support services as reliance's on drought and community health situation was regarded as a positive outcome. Moreover, the means to get adequate food security strategies in all regions of Ethiopia should be designed. Furthermore, future researches are recommended for finding the best building strategies for each region of Ethiopia.}, }
@article {pmid30909160, year = {2019}, author = {Bhargava, A}, title = {Climate change, demographic pressures and global sustainability.}, journal = {Economics and human biology}, volume = {33}, number = {}, pages = {149-154}, pmid = {30909160}, issn = {1873-6130}, support = {P2C HD041041/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; Birth Rate ; *Climate Change ; Demography/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Developing Countries ; Diet ; Food Supply ; Humans ; India ; Population Dynamics ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This article emphasizes the need for broader approaches for formulating policies for mitigating the effects of climate change especially in the contexts of agricultural decisions, and population health and migration. Constraints imposed by rapid population growth in developing countries for achievement of Sustainable Development Goals are discussed and evidence is presented on "unwanted" fertility from India. Second, comparisons are made for India during 2002-2016 for average well depths in 495 districts and terrestrial water storage anomalies assessed via GRACE satellites for 274 1° × 1° grids using estimated parameters from dynamic random effects models. Lastly, migration patterns especially of the highly educated from 39 sending countries to OECD countries during 2000-2010 are analyzed using dynamic random effects models and total fertility rates were significantly associated with higher migration rates for the highly educated. Implications of the empirical evidence for enhancing global sustainability are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid30909039, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, M and Ma, J and Kang, L and Wei, Y and He, Q and Hu, X and Li, H}, title = {Strong turbulence benefits toxic and colonial cyanobacteria in water: A potential way of climate change impact on the expansion of Harmful Algal Blooms.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {670}, number = {}, pages = {613-622}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.253}, pmid = {30909039}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/*growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Harmful Algal Bloom ; Lakes ; Microcystis ; Phytoplankton ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Extreme natural events such as typhoons can amplify the effect of hydrodynamics on the lake ecosystems. Here we presented data on the effect of typhoons on algal cell size based on field observation. Then turbulence simulation systems were used to decipher the response of natural phytoplankton communities to a range of turbulence regimes (linked to typhoon-induced turbulence intensity) under laboratory conditions. Turbulence intensities of 6.17 × 10[-3], 1.10 × 10[-2] and 1.80 × 10[-2] m[2]/s[3] benefited algal growth and triggered abrupt switches from unicellular Chlorella dominated to colonial Microcystis dominance, and the abundance of colonial algae depended on the turbulence intensity. Under the influence of elevated turbulence, Microcystis dominated biomass increased by 2.60-6.58 times compared with that of Chlorella. At a given phytoplankton density and community composition, we observed a significant increase in extracellular microcystins (MCs) and a 47.5-fold increase in intracellular MCs with intensified turbulent mixing, suggesting that the damage of algal cells concomitantly the stimulation of toxin-producing Microcystis. Our results confirmed that the formation of large colonial algal cells, enhancement of the succession of algal species, and most importantly, the induction of toxin-producing Microcystis, were the active adaption strategy when phytoplankton were impacted by strong turbulence. The result implies that the ongoing climates changes and typhoon events are likely to contribute to undesirable outcomes concerning phytoplankton populations.}, }
@article {pmid30904658, year = {2019}, author = {Bai, X and Zhang, X and Li, J and Duan, X and Jin, Y and Chen, Z}, title = {Altitudinal disparity in growth of Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) in response to recent climate change in northeast China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {670}, number = {}, pages = {466-477}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.232}, pmid = {30904658}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Altitude ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Forests ; Larix/*physiology ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Forests are sensitive to climate change at high altitude and high latitude. Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) has experienced an unprecedented forest retreat northward during the last century. Whether the response of growth to climate has dissimilar patterns at different altitudes, and what the "altitudinal trends" of forest development will be in the future, remains unclear. We dendroclimatically investigated the impacts of climate change on the growth of larch forests along an altitudinal gradient. In total, 721 trees from 25 forest stands, representing an altitudinal range from 400 to 950 m a.s.l. in the Great Xing'an Mountains, northeast China, were sampled and used to develop tree-ring width chronologies. The results suggest that warming caused a decline in larch growth at low altitude, while tree growth increased at high altitude. The growth-climate relationships indicate that October-February temperatures were positively correlated with larch growth at low- and high-altitude sites, but negatively correlated at medium-altitude sites (ca. 600-700 m a.s.l.). April-May (early spring) temperatures and October-January precipitation had positive effects on growth in general (ca. 75% of all sites). The effects of summer temperature/precipitation on larch growth at high-altitude sites were opposite to that at low-altitude sites. This change of response from significantly positive/negative correlation to significantly negative/positive correlation occurred gradually along the altitudinal gradient. The relationships varied significantly with altitude both in the case of temperature (R[2] = 0.425, P < 0.001) and precipitation (R[2] = 0.613, P < 0.001). The shift in response of larch forest to changes in summer temperature and precipitation occurred in the areas with a mean annual temperature of ca. -4 °C and ca. -5 °C, respectively; larch growth at temperatures lower or higher than these thresholds was limited by temperature and precipitation, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid30904110, year = {2019}, author = {Gasparrini, A and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM}, title = {Temperature-related mortality and climate change in Australia - Authors' reply.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {e122-e123}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30043-9}, pmid = {30904110}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {MR/M022625/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid30904109, year = {2019}, author = {Longden, T}, title = {Temperature-related mortality and climate change in Australia.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {e121}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30016-6}, pmid = {30904109}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid30904092, year = {2019}, author = {Muthamilarasan, M and Singh, NK and Prasad, M}, title = {Multi-omics approaches for strategic improvement of stress tolerance in underutilized crop species: A climate change perspective.}, journal = {Advances in genetics}, volume = {103}, number = {}, pages = {1-38}, doi = {10.1016/bs.adgen.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30904092}, issn = {0065-2660}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; Gene Expression Profiling ; Genomics/*methods ; Plant Breeding ; Proteomics/*methods ; *Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {For several decades, researchers are working toward improving the "major" crops for better adaptability and tolerance to environmental stresses. However, little or no research attention is given toward neglected and underutilized crop species (NUCS) which hold the potential to ensure food and nutritional security among the ever-growing global population. NUCS are predominantly climate resilient, but their yield and quality are compromised due to selective breeding. In this context, the importance of omics technologies namely genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, phenomics and ionomics in delineating the complex molecular machinery governing growth, development and stress responses of NUCS is underlined. However, gaining insights through individual omics approaches will not be sufficient to address the research questions, whereas integrating these technologies could be an effective strategy to decipher the gene function, genome structures, biological pathways, metabolic and regulatory networks underlying complex traits. Given this, the chapter enlists the importance of NUCS in food and nutritional security and provides an overview of deploying omics approaches to study the NUCS. Also, the chapter enumerates the status of crop improvement programs in NUCS and suggests implementing "integrating omics" for gaining a better understanding of crops' response to abiotic and biotic stresses.}, }
@article {pmid30903471, year = {2019}, author = {Attiaoui, I and Boufateh, T}, title = {Impacts of climate change on cereal farming in Tunisia: a panel ARDL-PMG approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {13}, pages = {13334-13345}, pmid = {30903471}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Edible Grain/chemistry/*growth &amp; development ; Farmers ; Temperature ; Tunisia ; }, abstract = {We used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling to investigate the short- and long-term effects of climate change on Tunisian cereal farming. The Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation as well as Granger causality tests conducted on a regional panel of the country, covering a time horizon from 1975 to 2014, showed that climate change issues still persist in Tunisia, affecting negatively and increasingly the cereal output. This study proves that negative effects of climate are rather felt when there is a shortage of rainfall, whereas the current temperature levels are still in favor of cereal crop. The findings indicate that cereal farming requires a continuous technology pack deployment and a favorable climate. However, an unanticipated long-run relationship has been observed between cereal production and labor. As a result of this research, recommendations were built around two major strategies, namely yield improvement and farmers' income stabilization to mitigate the unpredictable effects of climate change and hazardous events. The implementation of a production and regional specialization map and the adoption of an anti-drought insurance system in addition to compensation payment would be a suitable adaptation policy to climate change effects and for the sustainability of Tunisian agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid30902110, year = {2019}, author = {Crkvencic, N and Šlapeta, J}, title = {Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {137}, pmid = {30902110}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia/epidemiology ; Cat Diseases/epidemiology/parasitology ; Cats/parasitology ; *Climate Change ; Ctenocephalides/*classification/*genetics ; Dog Diseases/epidemiology/parasitology ; Dogs/parasitology ; Ecosystem ; Electron Transport Complex IV/genetics ; Flea Infestations/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Genetic Variation ; Insect Vectors ; Models, Theoretical ; Rickettsia felis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Bioclimatic variables play an integral part in the life-cycle of Ctenocephalides felis, the most common flea found on companion animals. It is essential that we understand the effects of climate on C. felis distribution as fleas are a major veterinary and public health concern. This study investigated the current distribution of C. felis in Australia and future projections based on climate modelling.<br><br>RESULTS: Typing of C. felis was undertaken using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) region and current distribution of haplotypes was mapped by Maximum Entropy (Maxent) niche modelling. All C. felis haplotypes have been predicted to persist in environments along the eastern and southern coastlines of Australia and distinct ecological niches were observed for two C. felis haplogroups. Clade 'Cairns' haplogroup thrives under the northern coastal tropical conditions whilst Clade 'Sydney' haplogroup persists in temperate climates along the eastern and southern coasts. The model was then used to predict areas that are projected to have suitable climatic conditions for these haplogroups in 2050 and 2070 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. Under all IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, the geographical range of all haplotypes was reduced by 5.59-42.21% in 2050 and 27.08-58.82% by 2070. The ranges of all clades were predicted to shift south along the eastern coastline.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As future temperatures exceed critical threshold temperatures for C. felis development in the northern tropical areas, Clade 'Cairns' haplogroup is predicted to shift south along the coastline and possibly outcompete the temperate haplogroup in these areas. If C. felis haplogroups possess distinct climatic niches it suggests a potential for these to be biologically distinct and have differing developmental rates and vector capabilities.}, }
@article {pmid30901779, year = {2019}, author = {Tal, A}, title = {The implications of climate change driven depletion of Lake Kinneret water levels: the compelling case for climate change-triggered precipitation impact on Lake Kinneret's low water levels.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {1045-1051}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.106}, pmid = {30901779}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The dramatic drop in water levels in the Kinneret Lake (Sea of Galilee) during the past years is evaluated. Recently published measurements of temperature, precipitation and other hydrological data support the position that climate change is driving the contraction of this iconic water resource. The article presents a range of evidence confirming long-term shifts in the hydrological dynamics of the watershed and details the associated ecological implications. In response to these trends, Israel's government has decided to build a desalination plant along the Northern Mediterranean shoreline that will provide water to replenish the depleted water levels in lake. Given the likelihood of continued global warming expediting increased evaporation and reduced precipitation, such climate adaptation policies constitute prudent public policy.}, }
@article {pmid30901496, year = {2019}, author = {Zlonis, KJ and Etterson, JR}, title = {Constituents of a mixed-ploidy population of Solidago altissima differ in plasticity and predicted response to selection under simulated climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {106}, number = {3}, pages = {453-468}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1257}, pmid = {30901496}, issn = {1537-2197}, support = {DEB-0641285//National Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Diploidy ; *Genetic Variation ; Polyploidy ; *Selection, Genetic ; Solidago/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Polyploids possess unique attributes that influence their environmental tolerance and geographic distribution. It is often unknown, however, whether cytotypes within mixed-ploidy populations are also uniquely adapted and differ in their responses to environmental change. Here, we examine whether diploids and hexaploids from a single mixed-ploidy population of Solidago altissima differ in plasticity and potential response to natural selection under conditions simulating climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Clonal replicates of diploid and hexaploid genotypes were grown in a randomized split-plot design under two temperature (+1.9&#xb0;C) and two watering treatments (-13% soil moisture) implemented with open-top passive chambers placed under rainout shelters. Physiological, phenological, morphological traits, and a fitness correlate, reproductive biomass, were measured and compared among treatments.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Differences in traits suggest that diploids are currently better adapted to low- water availability than hexaploids. Both ploidy levels had adaptive plastic responses to treatments and are predicted to respond to selection, but often for different traits. Water availability generally had a stronger effect than temperature, but for some traits the effect of water depended on temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Diploid and hexaploid S. altissima may maintain fitness in the short term through adaptive plasticity and evolution depending on which traits are important in a warmer, drier environment. Hexaploids may be at a disadvantage compared to diploids because fewer traits were heritable. Our results underscore the importance of studying combinations of climate variables that are predicted to change simultaneously.}, }
@article {pmid30901490, year = {2019}, author = {Fuller, RS and McGlaughlin, ME}, title = {Calochortus gunnisonii furthers evidence for the complex genetic legacy of historical climate change in the southern Rocky Mountains.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {106}, number = {3}, pages = {477-488}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1259}, pmid = {30901490}, issn = {1537-2197}, support = {//Colorado Federation of Garden Clubs, Inc./International ; //National Garden Clubs, Inc./International ; //UNC Graduate Student Association/International ; //UNC College of Natural and Health Sciences/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Colorado ; Genetic Markers ; *Genetic Variation ; Liliaceae/*genetics ; Refugium ; Wyoming ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climate cycles of the Quaternary have impacted plants at a global scale, leaving behind a complex genetic legacy. Species of the northern Rocky Mountains of North America were exposed to more uniform glacial patterns than the central and southern ranges, where synergistic relationships between temperature and precipitation caused differences in the timing and extent of glacier onset. We examined the genetic impacts of climate oscillations on Calochortus gunnisonii (Liliaceae) in the central and southern Rocky Mountains.<br><br>METHODS: Populations were sampled from disjunct mountain ranges across the basins of Wyoming and northern and central Colorado. Allelic data from nuclear microsatellites and plastid sequences (trnV-ndhC, petA-psbJ, and rpl16) were used to examine patterns of genetic structure between and among populations along the southern Rocky Mountain corridor.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: We infer considerable population structure concordant with mountain range of origin. Clustering analysis supports separate north and south genetic clusters on either side of major basins in Wyoming, suggesting that populations were maintained in two distinct refugia. Additionally, populations within the Sierra Madre Range of southern Wyoming show localized, divergent genetic signal indicative of a third potential glacial refugium. By contrast, recent genetic admixture is observed in the Laramie, Medicine Bow, and Front ranges, where population expansion from glacial refugia has likely occurred.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that during climate cycles of the Quaternary, C. gunnisonii experienced periods of population expansion and reduction, habitat fragmentation, isolation in three or more refugia, and admixture mirroring genetic impacts of other southern Rocky Mountains organisms.}, }
@article {pmid30900963, year = {2019}, author = {Agamuthu, P and Ragossnig, AM and Velis, C}, title = {Publishing impactful interdisciplinary waste-related research on global challenges: Circular economy, climate change and plastics pollution.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {37}, number = {4}, pages = {313-314}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X19837785}, pmid = {30900963}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution ; *Plastics ; Publishing ; Recycling ; }, }
@article {pmid30899064, year = {2019}, author = {Her, Y and Yoo, SH and Cho, J and Hwang, S and Jeong, J and Seong, C}, title = {Uncertainty in hydrological analysis of climate change: multi-parameter vs. multi-GCM ensemble predictions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4974}, pmid = {30899064}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The quantification of uncertainty in the ensemble-based predictions of climate change and the corresponding hydrological impact is necessary for the development of robust climate adaptation plans. Although the equifinality of hydrological modeling has been discussed for a long time, its influence on the hydrological analysis of climate change has not been studied enough to provide a definite idea about the relative contributions of uncertainty contained in both multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and multi-parameter ensembles to hydrological projections. This study demonstrated that the impact of multi-GCM ensemble uncertainty on direct runoff projections for headwater watersheds could be an order of magnitude larger than that of multi-parameter ensemble uncertainty. The finding suggests that the selection of appropriate GCMs should be much more emphasized than that of a parameter set among behavioral ones. When projecting soil moisture and groundwater, on the other hand, the hydrological modeling equifinality was more influential than the multi-GCM ensemble uncertainty. Overall, the uncertainty of GCM projections was dominant for relatively rapid hydrological components while the uncertainty of hydrological model parameterization was more significant for slow components. In addition, uncertainty in hydrological projections was much more closely associated with uncertainty in the ensemble projections of precipitation than temperature, indicating a need to pay closer attention to precipitation data for improved modeling reliability. Uncertainty in hydrological component ensemble projections showed unique responses to uncertainty in the precipitation and temperature ensembles.}, }
@article {pmid30894642, year = {2019}, author = {Pohl, B and Joly, D and Pergaud, J and Buoncristiani, JF and Soare, P and Berger, A}, title = {Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4919}, pmid = {30894642}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Mountains are a sensitive indicator of climate change and these areas are an early glimpse of what could happen in lowland environments. Peaking at 4808 m asl, the Mont-Blanc summit, at the boundary between France and Italy, is the highest of the Alps, in Western Europe. Its Massif is world-famous for outdoor and extreme sport activities, especially since the 1924 Olympic games held in Chamonix. Here, we use a novel statistical downscaling approach to regionalize current and future climate change over the Mont-Blanc Massif at an unequalled spatial resolution of 200 m. The algorithm is applied to daily minimum and maximum temperature derived from global climate models used in the fifth assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This new high-resolution database allows for a precise quantification of frost occurrence and its evolution until 2100. In the winter season and by the end of the 21[st] century, under a pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), frost frequency in the morning could decrease by 30-35 percentage points in the valley of Chamonix, and in the afternoon, similar changes could occur for elevations comprised between 2000 and 3000 m. In summertime, changes are even larger, reaching a huge drop of 45-50 points in the afternoon between 3500 and 4500 m. These changes are much reduced under an optimistic scenario. They could have huge impacts on the environment (glacier shrinking, permafrost degradation, floods, changes in the distribution of species and ecosystems) and societies (summer tourism for climbing and hiking, and winter tourism for skiing).}, }
@article {pmid30894543, year = {2019}, author = {Danneyrolles, V and Dupuis, S and Fortin, G and Leroyer, M and de Römer, A and Terrail, R and Vellend, M and Boucher, Y and Laflamme, J and Bergeron, Y and Arseneault, D}, title = {Stronger influence of anthropogenic disturbance than climate change on century-scale compositional changes in northern forests.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1265}, pmid = {30894543}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Canada ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Forestry/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forests ; Humans ; Light ; *Models, Statistical ; Plant Dispersal/*physiology ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Predicting future ecosystem dynamics depends critically on an improved understanding of how disturbances and climate change have driven long-term ecological changes in the past. Here we assembled a dataset of >100,000 tree species lists from the 19th century across a broad region (>130,000km[2]) in temperate eastern Canada, as well as recent forest inventories, to test the effects of changes in anthropogenic disturbance, temperature and moisture on forest dynamics. We evaluate changes in forest composition using four indices quantifying the affinities of co-occurring tree species with temperature, drought, light and disturbance. Land-use driven shifts favouring more disturbance-adapted tree species are far stronger than any effects ascribable to climate change, although the responses of species to disturbance are correlated with their expected responses to climate change. As such, anthropogenic and natural disturbances are expected to have large direct effects on forests and also indirect effects via altered responses to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30891512, year = {2019}, author = {Coltri, PP and Pinto, HS and Gonçalves, RRDV and Zullo Junior, J and Dubreuil, V}, title = {Low levels of shade and climate change adaptation of Arabica coffee in southeastern Brazil.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {e01263}, pmid = {30891512}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Coffee is one of the most consumed beverages in the world, and its international market has been growing for many years. Unfortunately, the Brazilian coffee production is threatened by high temperatures projected by climate change models. We evaluated three schemes of low levels of shade, which avoid the loss of production, as a strategy to adapt coffee to possible climate change. Additionally, as field measurements are expensive and often difficult to implement, we used numerical simulation to complement the evaluation. The microclimate simulator software Envi-met is a computer program often used to simulate urban environments, and we tested it on agriculture design. We verified that the shaded schemes assessed in the field decreased the air temperature in 0.6 °C in the studied period and reduced other possible climate stressors such as wind speed, radiation and raised air humidity in the dry period. Envi-met described the studied meteorological variable cycle very well, showing that combining numerical modelling and field research may be an important tool for planning the adaptation of the coffee sector to possible climate change, allowing growers choose a proper technique for their regions and environmental conditions. Finally, we highlighted the importance of planning the shade scheme on coffee areas in an interdisciplinary approach, including local climate evaluation to achieve a balance between temperature attenuation and production.}, }
@article {pmid30890800, year = {2019}, author = {Warren, M}, title = {Thousands of scientists are backing the kids striking for climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {567}, number = {7748}, pages = {291-292}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00861-z}, pmid = {30890800}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Global Warming/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; Internationality ; Politics ; Research Personnel/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Strikes, Employee/*supply &amp; distribution ; Students/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid30890178, year = {2019}, author = {Chersich, MF and Wright, CY}, title = {Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {22}, pmid = {30890178}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Care Sector ; Humans ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Globally, the response to climate change is gradually gaining momentum as the impacts of climate change unfold. In South Africa, it is increasingly apparent that delays in responding to climate change over the past decades have jeopardized human life and livelihoods. While slow progress with mitigation, especially in the energy sector, has garnered much attention, focus is now shifting to developing plans and systems to adapt to the impacts of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: We applied systematic review methods to assess progress with climate change adaptation in the health sector in South Africa. This case study provides useful lessons which could be applied in other countries in the African region, or globally. We reviewed the literature indexed in PubMed and Web of Science, together with relevant grey literature. We included articles describing adaptation interventions to reduce the impact of climate change on health in South Africa. All study designs were eligible. Data from included articles and grey literature were summed thematically.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 820 publications screened, 21 were included, together with an additional xx papers. Very few studies presented findings of an intervention or used high-quality research designs. Several policy frameworks for climate change have been developed at national and local government levels. These, however, pay little attention to health concerns and the specific needs of vulnerable groups. Systems for forecasting extreme weather, and tracking malaria and other infections appear well established. Yet, there is little evidence about the country's preparedness for extreme weather events, or the ability of the already strained health system to respond to these events. Seemingly, few adaptation measures have taken place in occupational and other settings. To date, little attention has been given to climate change in training curricula for health workers.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the volume and quality of research is disappointing, and disproportionate to the threat posed by climate change in South Africa. This is surprising given that the requisite expertise for policy advocacy, identifying effective interventions and implementing systems-based approaches rests within the health sector. More effective use of data, a traditional strength of health professionals, could support adaptation and promote accountability of the state. With increased health-sector leadership, climate change could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent, adequately-resourced response. Such a shift in South Africa, but also beyond the country, may play a key role in accelerating climate change adaptation and mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid30890094, year = {2019}, author = {Rivrud, IM and Meisingset, EL and Loe, LE and Mysterud, A}, title = {Future suitability of habitat in a migratory ungulate under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {286}, number = {1899}, pages = {20190442}, pmid = {30890094}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; *Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Deer/*physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Homing Behavior ; Male ; Norway ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {With climate change, the effect of global warming on snow cover is expected to cause range expansion and enhance habitat suitability for species at their northern distribution limits. However, how this depends on landscape topography and sex in size-dimorphic species remains uncertain, and is further complicated for migratory animals following climate-driven seasonal resource fluctuations across vast landscapes. Using 11 years of data from a partially migratory ungulate at their northern distribution ranges, the red deer (Cervus elaphus), we predicted sex-specific summer and winter habitat suitability in diverse landscapes under medium and severe global warming. We found large increases in future winter habitat suitability, resulting in expansion of winter ranges as currently unsuitable habitat became suitable. Even moderate warming decreased snow cover substantially, with no suitability difference between warming scenarios. Winter ranges will hence not expand linearly with warming, even for species at their northern distribution limits. Although less pronounced than in winter, summer ranges also expanded and more so under severe warming. Summer habitat suitability was positively correlated with landscape topography and ranges expanded more for females than males. Our study highlights the complexity of predicting future habitat suitability for conservation and management of size-dimorphic, migratory species under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid30886391, year = {2019}, author = {Strandén, I and Kantanen, J and Russo, IM and Orozco-terWengel, P and Bruford, MW and , }, title = {Genomic selection strategies for breeding adaptation and production in dairy cattle under climate change.}, journal = {Heredity}, volume = {123}, number = {3}, pages = {307-317}, pmid = {30886391}, issn = {1365-2540}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Animals ; Breeding/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Cattle ; Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Dairying ; Female ; Genetic Introgression ; Male ; *Models, Genetic ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Quantitative Trait Loci ; *Quantitative Trait, Heritable ; *Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Livestock production both contributes to and is affected by global climate change, and substantial modifications will be required to increase its climate resilience. In this context, reliance on dominant commercial livestock breeds, featuring small effective population sizes, makes current production strategies vulnerable if their production is restricted to environments, which may be too costly to support under future climate scenarios. The adaptability of animal populations to future environments will therefore become important. To help evaluate the role of genetics in climate adaptation, we compared selection strategies in dairy cattle using breeding simulations, where genomic selection was used on two negatively correlated traits for production (assumed to be moderately heritable) and adaptation (assumed to have low heritability). Compared with within-population breeding, genomic introgression produced a more positive genetic change for both production and adaptation traits. Genomic introgression from highly adapted but low production value populations into highly productive but low adaptation populations was most successful when the adaptation trait was given a lower selection weight than the production trait. Genomic introgression from highly productive population to highly adapted population was most successful when the adaptation trait was given a higher selection weight than the production trait. Both these genomic introgression schemes had the lowest risk of inbreeding. Our results suggest that both adaptation and production can potentially be improved simultaneously by genomic introgression.}, }
@article {pmid30884421, year = {2019}, author = {Liu-Helmersson, J and Rocklöv, J and Sewe, M and Brännström, &#xc5;}, title = {Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {172}, number = {}, pages = {693-699}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2019.02.026}, pmid = {30884421}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Aedes/physiology/virology ; Animals ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Europe/epidemiology ; Models, Theoretical ; *Mosquito Vectors/physiology/virology ; Virus Diseases/epidemiology/transmission ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change allows Aedes aegypti to infest new areas. Consequently, it enables the arboviruses the mosquito transmits -- e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever - to emerge in previously uninfected areas. An example is the Portuguese island of Madeira during 2012-13.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: We aim to understand how climate change will affect the future spread of this potent vector, as an aid in assessing the risk of disease outbreaks and effectively allocating resources for vector control.<br><br>METHODS: We used an empirically-informed, process-based mathematical model to study the feasibility of Aedes aegypti infestation into continental Europe. Based on established global climate-change scenario data, we assess the potential of Aedes aegypti to establish in Europe over the 21st century by estimating the vector population growth rate for five climate models (GCM5).<br><br>RESULTS: In a low carbon emission future (RCP2.6), we find minimal change to the current situation throughout the whole of the 21st century. In a high carbon future (RCP8.5), a large parts of southern Europe risks being invaded by Aedes aegypti.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our results show that successfully enforcing the Paris Agreement by limiting global warming to below 2&#x202f;&#xb0;C significantly lowers the risk for infestation of Aedes aegypti and consequently of potential large-scale arboviral disease outbreaks in Europe within the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid30884039, year = {2019}, author = {Piao, S and Liu, Q and Chen, A and Janssens, IA and Fu, Y and Dai, J and Liu, L and Lian, X and Shen, M and Zhu, X}, title = {Plant phenology and global climate change: Current progresses and challenges.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1922-1940}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14619}, pmid = {30884039}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Plant Development ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, is important for plant functioning and ecosystem services and their biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. Plant phenology depends on temperature, and the current rapid climate change has revived interest in understanding and modeling the responses of plant phenology to the warming trend and the consequences thereof for ecosystems. Here, we review recent progresses in plant phenology and its interactions with climate change. Focusing on the start (leaf unfolding) and end (leaf coloring) of plant growing seasons, we show that the recent rapid expansion in ground- and remote sensing- based phenology data acquisition has been highly beneficial and has supported major advances in plant phenology research. Studies using multiple data sources and methods generally agree on the trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change, yet these trends appear to have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. Our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the plant phenology responses to climate warming is still limited. The interactions between multiple drivers complicate the modeling and prediction of plant phenology changes. Furthermore, changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedbacks to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. We suggest that future studies should primarily focus on using new observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on improving process-based phenology modeling, and on the scaling of phenology from species to landscape-level.}, }
@article {pmid30878946, year = {2019}, author = {Bhutta, ZA and Aimone, A and Akhtar, S}, title = {Climate change and global child health: what can paediatricians do?.}, journal = {Archives of disease in childhood}, volume = {104}, number = {5}, pages = {417-418}, doi = {10.1136/archdischild-2018-316694}, pmid = {30878946}, issn = {1468-2044}, mesh = {Child ; Child Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Global Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Pediatricians ; Physician's Role ; Sustainable Development ; }, }
@article {pmid30878100, year = {2019}, author = {Sisodiya, SM and Scheffer, IE and Lowenstein, DH and Free, SL}, title = {Why should a neurologist worry about climate change?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Neurology}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {335-336}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-4422(19)30081-X}, pmid = {30878100}, issn = {1474-4465}, }
@article {pmid30877291, year = {2019}, author = {Anderson, GB and Barnes, EA and Bell, ML and Dominici, F}, title = {The Future of Climate Epidemiology: Opportunities for Advancing Health Research in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of epidemiology}, volume = {188}, number = {5}, pages = {866-872}, pmid = {30877291}, issn = {1476-6256}, support = {R01 ES028033/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 MD012769/MD/NIMHD NIH HHS/United States ; R01 ES026217/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 ES024332/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R00 ES022631/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; *Epidemiology ; Humans ; Interprofessional Relations ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Temperature ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {In the coming decades, climate change is expected to dramatically affect communities worldwide, altering the patterns of many ambient exposures and disasters, including extreme temperatures, heat waves, wildfires, droughts, and floods. These exposures, in turn, can affect risks for a variety of human diseases and health outcomes. Climate epidemiology plays an important role in informing policy related to climate change and its threats to public health. Climate epidemiology leverages deep, integrated collaborations between epidemiologists and climate scientists to understand the current and potential future impacts of climate-related exposures on human health. A variety of recent and ongoing developments in climate science are creating new avenues for epidemiologic contributions. Here, we discuss the contributions of climate epidemiology and describe some key current research directions, including research to better characterize uncertainty in climate health projections. We end by outlining 3 developing areas of climate science that are creating opportunities for high-impact epidemiologic advances in the near future: 1) climate attribution studies, 2) subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, and 3) decadal predictions.}, }
@article {pmid30875123, year = {2019}, author = {Foster, S and Leichenko, R and Nguyen, KH and Blake, R and Kunreuther, H and Madajewicz, M and Petkova, EP and Zimmerman, R and Corbin-Mark, C and Yeampierre, E and Tovar, A and Herrera, C and Ravenborg, D}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 6: Community-Based Assessments of Adaptation and Equity.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {126-173}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14009}, pmid = {30875123}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Department of Environmental Protection/International ; //New York City Emergency Management/International ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Policy ; Floods ; *Geographic Mapping ; Humans ; New York City ; Poverty Areas ; *Residence Characteristics ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, }
@article {pmid30875122, year = {2019}, author = {Solecki, W and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 9: Perspectives on a City in a Changing Climate 2008-2018.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {280-305}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14017}, pmid = {30875122}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Emergency Management/International ; //FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/International ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/International ; }, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; *Extreme Weather ; Humans ; New York City ; Public Health ; Sea Level Rise ; Water Pollution ; }, }
@article {pmid30875120, year = {2019}, author = {Gornitz, V and Oppenheimer, M and Kopp, R and Orton, P and Buchanan, M and Lin, N and Horton, R and Bader, D}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {71-94}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14006}, pmid = {30875120}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/International ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/International ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Floods ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Ice Cover ; Local Government ; New York City ; *Sea Level Rise ; }, }
@article {pmid30875118, year = {2019}, author = {González, JE and Ortiz, L and Smith, BK and Devineni, N and Colle, B and Booth, JF and Ravindranath, A and Rivera, L and Horton, R and Towey, K and Kushnir, Y and Manley, D and Bader, D and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 2: New Methods for Assessing Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Downpours, and Drought.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {30-70}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14007}, pmid = {30875118}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Department of Environmental Protection/International ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/International ; //FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/International ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Extreme Weather ; Floods ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Humidity ; New York City ; }, }
@article {pmid30875117, year = {2019}, author = {Blake, R and Jacob, K and Yohe, G and Zimmerman, R and Manley, D and Solecki, W and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 8: Indicators and Monitoring.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {230-279}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14014}, pmid = {30875117}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/International ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/International ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/International ; }, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; Cyclonic Storms ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Extreme Weather ; Floods ; Humans ; *Local Government ; New York City ; Power Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid30875116, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report: Conclusions and Recommendations.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {306-311}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14032}, pmid = {30875116}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/International ; //New York City Emergency Management/International ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/International ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; *Extreme Weather ; Floods ; Humans ; *Local Government ; New York City ; Sea Level Rise ; }, }
@article {pmid30875114, year = {2019}, author = {Zimmerman, R and Foster, S and González, JE and Jacob, K and Kunreuther, H and Petkova, EP and Tollerson, E}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 7: Resilience Strategies for Critical Infrastructures and Their Interdependencies.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {174-229}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14010}, pmid = {30875114}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Emergency Management/International ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/International ; //FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/International ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; Floods ; Humans ; *Natural Disasters ; New York City ; Sea Level Rise ; Water Purification/methods ; Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid30875112, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Executive Summary.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {11-21}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14008}, pmid = {30875112}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//New York City Department of Environmental Protection/International ; //New York City Emergency Management/International ; //FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate ; Climate Change ; *Extreme Weather ; Floods/prevention &amp; control ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; Risk ; *Sea Level Rise ; }, }
@article {pmid30875111, year = {2019}, author = {Patrick, L and Solecki, W and Gornitz, V and Orton, P and Blumberg, A}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 5: Mapping Climate Risk.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {115-125}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14015}, pmid = {30875111}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/International ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/International ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/International ; }, mesh = {City Planning ; *Climate Change ; *Floods ; *Geographic Mapping ; Geography ; Humans ; Local Government ; Maps as Topic ; New York City ; Risk ; *Sea Level Rise ; }, }
@article {pmid30875110, year = {2019}, author = {Rosenzweig, C and Solecki, W}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 1: Introduction.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {22-29}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14004}, pmid = {30875110}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Extreme Weather ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; *Local Government ; New York City ; }, }
@article {pmid30875109, year = {2019}, author = {Orton, P and Lin, N and Gornitz, V and Colle, B and Booth, J and Feng, K and Buchanan, M and Oppenheimer, M and Patrick, L}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1439}, number = {1}, pages = {95-114}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.14011}, pmid = {30875109}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//FEMA Cooperating Technical Partners Program/International ; //New York City Department of Environmental Protection/International ; //New York City Office of Emergency Management/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; *Floods ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; Wind ; }, }
@article {pmid30873791, year = {2018}, author = {Riojas-Rodríguez, H and Quezada-Jiménez, ML and Zúñiga-Bello, P and Hurtado-Díaz, M}, title = {Climate Change and Potential Health Effects in Mexican Children.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {84}, number = {2}, pages = {281-284}, pmid = {30873791}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure/adverse effects/analysis/prevention &amp; control ; *Environmental Health ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Mexico/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is the most important challenge of our time, a long-term global problem and one of the most serious global threats to human health in the future. CC is the expression of changes in temperature and water cycle, floods and drought events, extreme heat waves and sea level rise. Children are particularly vulnerable because they are highly sensitive to climate changes. The main environmental hazards affecting children's health are poor household drinking water quality and availability, lack access to adequate sanitary facilities, poor hygiene practices, outdoor and indoor air pollution, vector-borne diseases, chemical hazards, and unintentional injuries. Except for some unintentional injuries, these environmental hazards are associated to CC.}, }
@article {pmid30873334, year = {2019}, author = {Germond, B and Ha, FW}, title = {Climate change and maritime security narrative: the case of the international maritime organisation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental studies and sciences}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1-12}, pmid = {30873334}, issn = {2190-6483}, abstract = {Both climate change and maritime security are currently ranking high on states' and international organisations' political and governance agendas. However, academics and practitioners alike have hardly tackled the actual interlinkages and dependencies between the two issues. Taking the International Maritime Organization (IMO) as a case study, this article pioneers the use of corpus linguistic method to unravel the nonexistence of a narrative linking climate change impacts and the occurrence of maritime criminality despite some connections in practice. However, direct narrative links between climate change and migration as well as migration and maritime security were found, which can point at an indirect link between climate change and maritime security. The article concludes on the implications of these findings for academics and practitioners alike. The latter are encouraged to reflect on their current narrative in a bid to contribute to a better acknowledgement of the existing links between the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems and aspects of maritime security.}, }
@article {pmid30872720, year = {2019}, author = {Takemura, T and Suzuki, K}, title = {Weak global warming mitigation by reducing black carbon emissions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4419}, pmid = {30872720}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {JP15H01728//MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)/ ; TOUGOU program//Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)/ ; }, abstract = {Reducing black carbon (BC), i.e. soot, in the atmosphere is a potential mitigation measure for climate change before revealing the effect of reducing anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) because BC with shorter lifetime than CO2 absorbs solar and infrared radiation. BC has a strong positive radiative forcing in the atmosphere, as indicated in many previous studies. Here, we show that the decline in surface air temperatures with reduced BC emissions is weaker than would be expected from the magnitude of its instantaneous radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Climate simulations show that the global mean change in surface air temperature per unit of instantaneous radiative forcing of BC at the TOA is about one-eighth that of sulphate aerosols, which cool the climate through scattering solar radiation, without absorption. This is attributed to the positive radiation budget of BC being largely compensated for by rapid atmospheric adjustment, whereas the radiative imbalance due to sulphate aerosols drives a slow response of climate over a long timescale. Regional climate responses to short-lived species are shown to exhibit even more complex characteristics due to their heterogeneous spatial distributions, requiring further analysis in future studies.}, }
@article {pmid30872300, year = {2019}, author = {Whitehorn, J and Yacoub, S}, title = {Global warming and arboviral infections.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {149-152}, pmid = {30872300}, issn = {1473-4893}, mesh = {Aedes ; Animals ; *Arbovirus Infections ; *Arboviruses ; *Global Warming ; Host Specificity ; Humans ; Mosquito Vectors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already expanding the geographic footprint of arboviral infections. In this article we consider the impact of climate change on three arboviruses with particular consideration of the effect on Europe.}, }
@article {pmid30870674, year = {2019}, author = {Baskent, EZ}, title = {Exploring the effects of climate change mitigation scenarios on timber, water, biodiversity and carbon values: A case study in Pozantı planning unit, Turkey.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {238}, number = {}, pages = {420-433}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.024}, pmid = {30870674}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Forestry ; Forests ; Turkey ; Water ; }, abstract = {This study evaluated the performance of three climate change mitigation management scenarios; business as usual (BAU), low intensity management (LIM) and high intensity management (HIM) to provide ecosystem services. ETCAP simulation model was used to forecast forest development for Pozantı area with 17,603 ha forests in Turkey. Wood production, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration and water provision were the primary ecosystem services. The species composition, natural composition, key habitats and understory vegetation are maintained and small forest openings were left intact for wildlife. Some forest areas were allowed to develop older to provide better opportunities of biodiversity conservation. The increase of carbon stock was related to age class shifts to older stages due mainly to increasing afforestation areas and productivity. The marginal differences in total carbon balance were related to a smaller increase in volume increment in BAU scenario and a higher allocation of harvest to energy production for the LIM and HIM scenarios. The planning scenarios allowed better production of water runoffs with slight differences among the output of management scenarios. The prevailing variable was the areas of afforestation. The impacts of a forest management scenario on ecosystem services highly depend on the development rate and intensity of management interventions.}, }
@article {pmid30868238, year = {2019}, author = {Mabhaudhi, T and Chimonyo, VGP and Hlahla, S and Massawe, F and Mayes, S and Nhamo, L and Modi, AT}, title = {Prospects of orphan crops in climate change.}, journal = {Planta}, volume = {250}, number = {3}, pages = {695-708}, pmid = {30868238}, issn = {1432-2048}, support = {Grant number - 205200/Z/16/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crop Production/methods ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Food Supply ; }, abstract = {Orphan crops can contribute to building resilience of marginal cropping systems as a climate chnage adaptation strategy. Orphan crops play an important role in global food and nutrition security, and may have potential to contribute to sustainable food systems under climate change. Owing to reports of their potential under water scarcity, there is an argument to promote them to sustainably address challenges such as increasing drought and water scarcity, food and nutrition insecurity, environmental degradation, and employment creation under climate change. We conducted a scoping review using online databases to identify the prospects of orphan crops to contribute to (1) sustainable and healthy food systems, (2) genetic resources for future crop improvement, and (3) improving agricultural sustainability under climate change. The review found that, as a product of generations of landrace agriculture, several orphan crops are nutritious, resilient, and adapted to niche marginal agricultural environments. Including such orphan crops in the existing monocultural cropping systems could support more sustainable, nutritious, and diverse food systems in marginalised agricultural environments. Orphan crops also represent a broad gene pool for future crop improvement. The reduction in arable land due to climate change offers opportunities to expand the area under their production. Their suitability to marginal niche and low-input environments offers opportunities for low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from an agro-ecosystems, production, and processing perspective. This, together with their status as a sub-set of agro-biodiversity, offers opportunities to address socio-economic and environmental challenges under climate change. With research and development, and policy to support them, orphan crops could play an important role in climate-change adaptation, especially in the global south.}, }
@article {pmid30867993, year = {2019}, author = {Sosa, V and Loera, I and Angulo, DF and Vásquez-Cruz, M and Gándara, E}, title = {Climate change and conservation in a warm North American desert: effect in shrubby plants.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6572}, pmid = {30867993}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Deserts are biologically rich habitats with a vast array of animals and plants adapted to xeric conditions, and most deserts are among the planet's last remaining areas of total wilderness. Among North American deserts, the Chihuahuan Desert has the highest levels of diversity and endemism. To understand the effect of future climate change on plants distributed in this arid land and propose effective conservation planning, we focused on five endemic shrubby species that characterize the Chihuahuan Desert and used an integrative approach.<br><br>METHODS: Ecological niche-based modeling, spatial genetics and ecological resistance analyses were carried out to identify the effect of global warming on the studied five shrubby species. Key areas that need to be preserved were identified taking into account the existing protected areas within the Chihuahuan Desert.<br><br>RESULTS: The extent of future distribution will vary among these species, and on average expansion will occur in the western part of the Chihuahuan Desert. For most species low environmental resistance to gene flow was predicted, while higher future resistance was predicted for one species that would lead to increased population isolation. The highest haplotype diversity was identified in three hotspots. Based on future suitability of habitat and in the haplotype diversity we suggest preserving two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental, located in areas without protection. The third hotspot was detected in the well preserved Tehuac&#xe1;n-Cuicatl&#xe1;n Man and Biosphere Reserve.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Global climate change will have an effect in arid adapted plants, favoring expansion in the western of the Chihuahuan Desert however negatively affecting others with high ecological resistance disrupting gene flow. Two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental should be protected.}, }
@article {pmid30867474, year = {2019}, author = {Barnard, PL and Erikson, LH and Foxgrover, AC and Hart, JAF and Limber, P and O'Neill, AC and van Ormondt, M and Vitousek, S and Wood, N and Hayden, MK and Jones, JM}, title = {Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4309}, pmid = {30867474}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world's 5[th] largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state's GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three-fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.}, }
@article {pmid30867437, year = {2019}, author = {Pino, M and Abarzúa, AM and Astorga, G and Martel-Cea, A and Cossio-Montecinos, N and Navarro, RX and Lira, MP and Labarca, R and LeCompte, MA and Adedeji, V and Moore, CR and Bunch, TE and Mooney, C and Wolbach, WS and West, A and Kennett, JP}, title = {Sedimentary record from Patagonia, southern Chile supports cosmic-impact triggering of biomass burning, climate change, and megafaunal extinctions at 12.8 ka.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4413}, pmid = {30867437}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Younger Dryas (YD) impact hypothesis posits that fragments of a large, disintegrating asteroid/comet struck North America, South America, Europe, and western Asia ~12,800 years ago. Multiple airbursts/impacts produced the YD boundary layer (YDB), depositing peak concentrations of platinum, high-temperature spherules, meltglass, and nanodiamonds, forming an isochronous datum at >50 sites across ~50 million km[2] of Earth's surface. This proposed event triggered extensive biomass burning, brief impact winter, YD climate change, and contributed to extinctions of late Pleistocene megafauna. In the most extensive investigation south of the equator, we report on a ~12,800-year-old sequence at Pilauco, Chile (~40°S), that exhibits peak YD boundary concentrations of platinum, gold, high-temperature iron- and chromium-rich spherules, and native iron particles rarely found in nature. A major peak in charcoal abundance marks an intense biomass-burning episode, synchronous with dramatic changes in vegetation, including a high-disturbance regime, seasonality in precipitation, and warmer conditions. This is anti-phased with northern-hemispheric cooling at the YD onset, whose rapidity suggests atmospheric linkage. The sudden disappearance of megafaunal remains and dung fungi in the YDB layer at Pilauco correlates with megafaunal extinctions across the Americas. The Pilauco record appears consistent with YDB impact evidence found at sites on four continents.}, }
@article {pmid30866725, year = {2019}, author = {Peek, B}, title = {groundWork Environmental Justice Action Climate Change Letter to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, December 2018.}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {112-115}, doi = {10.1177/1048291119835446}, pmid = {30866725}, issn = {1541-3772}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Democracy ; Humans ; Public Health/*standards ; Socioeconomic Factors ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {groundWork is one of South Africa's leading environmental justice organizations and the local affiliate of Friend of the Earth. It was formed in 1999 to support people's struggles for environmental justice. In the most unequal of countries, groundWork is part of the struggle for an egalitarian society in which people can live well with each other and with the earth. The following letter was sent to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in December 2018 urging him to take a Just Transition approach to climate change policies so that the economic and social transition eliminates poverty, improves public health, and strengthens the nation's democracy.}, }
@article {pmid30865494, year = {2019}, author = {Greenberg, MR}, title = {A Persuasive Presentation Connecting the Dots Between Climate Change and Public Health.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {109}, number = {4}, pages = {527-529}, pmid = {30865494}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Documentation ; Humans ; *Persuasive Communication ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid30864071, year = {2020}, author = {Veldsman, LM and Kylin, H and Bronkhorst, P and Engelbrecht, I and Bouwman, H}, title = {A method to determine the combined effects of climate change (temperature and humidity) and eggshell thickness on water loss from bird eggs.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {781-793}, pmid = {30864071}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {General funds//North-West University/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/physiology ; Chickens ; *Climate Change ; Egg Shell/*chemistry ; Eggs ; Humidity ; Temperature ; Water/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Differences in bird eggshell thicknesses occur due to numerous factors, including thinning due to persistent organic pollutants. Not only does thinning weaken the shell; weaker shells combined with elevated ambient temperature and changes in humidities may result in changes in water loss rates from the egg contents. Therefore, thinner eggshells raise concern of water being lost faster than normal at lower relative humidities, which may affect hatching. To investigate the combined effects, we developed and tested an effective method that measures water loss through different thickness eggshells at controlled temperatures and relative humidities to assist in ascertaining the combined effects of climate change (temperature and humidity) and changes in eggshell thickness on bird reproduction. The fastest rate of loss was at 40% RH at 40 °C (0.1 mL/cm[2]/day), and the slowest was at 22 °C at 80% RH (0.02 mL/cm[2]/day). Eggshell thickness had a significant effect on water loss at all humidity treatments, except at the highest temperature and humidity treatment (80% RH and 40 °C). Temperature explained 40% of the variance, RH explained 20%, and interactions between temperature and humidity explained 15% of the variance (repeated-measures, two-way ANOVA). Generalized linear analyses revealed that both factors temperature and humidity contributed significantly in any two-way combinations. We have laid the ground for a system to test the combined effects of temperature and humidity changes associated with climate change and eggshell thinning associated with pollutants, on water loss across eggshells.}, }
@article {pmid30863672, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, CJ and Li, QF and Wan, JZ}, title = {Potential invasive plant expansion in global ecoregions under climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6479}, pmid = {30863672}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Climate change is increasing the risk of invasive plant expansion worldwide. However, few studies have specified the relationship between invasive plant expansion and ecoregions at the global scale under climate change. To address this gap, we provide risk maps highlighting the response of invasive plant species (IPS), with a focus on terrestrial and freshwater ecoregions to climate change, and further explore the climatic features of ecosystems with a high potential for invasive plant expansion under climate change. We use species distribution modelling to predict the suitable habitats of IPS with records at the global scale. Hotspots with a potential risk of IPS (such as aquatic plants, trees, and herbs) expanding in global ecoregions were distributed in Northern Europe, the UK, South America, North America, southwest China, and New Zealand. Temperature changes were related to the potential of IPS expansion in global ecoregions under climate change. Coastal and high latitude ecoregions, such as temperate forests, alpine vegetation, and coastal rivers, were severely infiltrated by IPS under climate change. Monitoring strategies should be defined for climate change for IPS, particularly for aquatic plants, trees, and herbs in the biomes of regions with coastal or high latitudes. The role of climate change on the potential for IPS expansion should be taken into consideration for biological conservation and risk evaluation of IPS at ecoregional scales.}, }
@article {pmid30863509, year = {2019}, author = {Nyahunda, L and Tirivangasi, HM}, title = {Challenges faced by rural people in mitigating the effects of climate change in the Mazungunye communal lands, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {596}, pmid = {30863509}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The phenomenon of climate change is one of the most contested and debated concepts globally. Some governments still deny the existence of climate change and its impact on rural-urban areas around the world. However, the effects of climate change have been visible in rural Zimbabwe, with some communities facing food insecurity, water scarcity and loss of livestock. Climate change has impacted negatively on agriculture, which is the main source of livelihood in Zimbabwe's rural communities. This study aims at exploring challenges faced by rural people in mitigating the effects of climate change in the Mazungunye community, Masvingo Province, in Zimbabwe. The objectives of the study were to identify the challenges that impede effective adaptation of rural people to climate change hazards and to examine their perceptions on how to foster effective adaptation. The researchers conducted a qualitative research study guided by descriptive and exploratory research designs. Purposive sampling was employed to draw the population of the study. The population sample consisted of 26 research participants drawn from members of the community. Data was collected through in-depth individual interviews and focus group discussions. Thematic content analysis was used to analyse data. The findings of the study revealed the following challenges: unpredictability of indigenous knowledge systems, lack of resources and technoscience adaptive methods, lack of support to implement viable mitigation strategies, lack of information about resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change. This study has significance to policymakers and other stakeholders concerned with devising and implementing policies and programmes that are responsive to rural people's needs in the climate change terrain, tapping into their presenting challenges as a departure point for intervention. The study recommended that the most important way to help rural poor people adapt to climate change is through the provision of information; immediate response to needs and climate-smart agricultural policies.}, }
@article {pmid30863507, year = {2019}, author = {Mondal, MSH}, title = {The implications of population growth and climate change on sustainable development in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {535}, pmid = {30863507}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Bangladesh is characterised by its large population on a small land, rapid and unplanned urbanisation, rising urban inequalities, food and nutritional insecurity and lower level of resilience to climate change. These combined effects are major threats to food security of the country in the near future. This paper examined the implications of population growth and climate change on sustainable development of Bangladesh. This research was based on the analysis of chronological data and synthesis of literature on population growth, greenhouse gases emission, climate change, food security and sustainable development, mainly contextualised on Bangladesh. The analysis found that the population of Bangladesh has almost doubled between 1980 and 2015. The country shared around 2.2% (in 2013) of global population and contributed only 0.19% of global carbon dioxide emission. On the contrary, climate change is the biggest challenge for the country. An increase in temperature could decline rice and wheat production. Moreover, average monsoon rainfall would be increased as a result of increased temperature. The increase in temperature and rainfall may lead to early arrival and late departure of the monsoon season or an increase in mean daily rainfall intensity. Population growth and climate change have multiple implications on development. Therefore, sustainable development may be difficult to attain if climate change continues to jeopardise economic growth, environmental stability as well as the social progress of Bangladesh.}, }
@article {pmid30862928, year = {2019}, author = {Mega, ER}, title = {Cuba acknowledges climate change threats in its constitution.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {567}, number = {7747}, pages = {155}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00760-3}, pmid = {30862928}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Cuba ; Cyclonic Storms/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disaster Planning/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; Droughts/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; *Federal Government ; Global Warming/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Goals ; Humans ; Meteorology ; Politics ; Seawater/analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid30862793, year = {2019}, author = {Valenzuela, N and Literman, R and Neuwald, JL and Mizoguchi, B and Iverson, JB and Riley, JL and Litzgus, JD}, title = {Extreme thermal fluctuations from climate change unexpectedly accelerate demographic collapse of vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {4254}, pmid = {30862793}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Embryo, Nonmammalian/embryology ; Embryonic Development/*physiology ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Male ; Population Dynamics/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Reptiles/*growth &amp; development ; Sex Determination Processes/*physiology ; Sex Ratio ; }, abstract = {Global climate is warming rapidly, threatening vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) by disrupting sex ratios and other traits. Less understood are the effects of increased thermal fluctuations predicted to accompany climate change. Greater fluctuations could accelerate feminization of species that produce females under warmer conditions (further endangering TSD animals), or counter it (reducing extinction risk). Here we use novel experiments exposing eggs of Painted Turtles (Chrysemys picta) to replicated profiles recorded in field nests plus mathematically-modified profiles of similar shape but wider oscillations, and develop a new mathematical model for analysis. We show that broadening fluctuations around naturally male-producing (cooler) profiles feminizes developing embryos, whereas embryos from warmer profiles remain female or die. This occurs presumably because wider oscillations around cooler profiles expose embryos to very low temperatures that inhibit development, and to feminizing temperatures where most embryogenesis accrues. Likewise, embryos incubated under broader fluctuations around warmer profiles experience mostly feminizing temperatures, some dangerously high (which increase mortality), and fewer colder values that are insufficient to induce male development. Therefore, as thermal fluctuations escalate with global warming, the feminization of TSD turtle populations could accelerate, facilitating extinction by demographic collapse. Aggressive global CO2 mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6) could prevent these risks, while intermediate actions (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios) yield moderate feminization, highlighting the peril that insufficient reductions of greenhouse gas emissions pose for TSD taxa. If our findings are generalizable, TSD squamates, tuatara, and crocodilians that produce males at warmer temperatures could suffer accelerated masculinization, underscoring the broad taxonomic threats of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30858310, year = {2019}, author = {Davis, KT and Dobrowski, SZ and Higuera, PE and Holden, ZA and Veblen, TT and Rother, MT and Parks, SA and Sala, A and Maneta, MP}, title = {Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {13}, pages = {6193-6198}, pmid = {30858310}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Pinus ponderosa/growth &amp; development ; Pseudotsuga/growth &amp; development ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasing fire activity in the western United States, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in vegetation communities. Wildfire can catalyze vegetation change by killing adult trees that could otherwise persist in climate conditions no longer suitable for seedling establishment and survival. Recently documented declines in postfire conifer recruitment in the western United States may be an example of this phenomenon. However, the role of annual climate variation and its interaction with long-term climate trends in driving these changes is poorly resolved. Here we examine the relationship between annual climate and postfire tree regeneration of two dominant, low-elevation conifers (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) using annually resolved establishment dates from 2,935 destructively sampled trees from 33 wildfires across four regions in the western United States. We show that regeneration had a nonlinear response to annual climate conditions, with distinct thresholds for recruitment based on vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, and maximum surface temperature. At dry sites across our study region, seasonal to annual climate conditions over the past 20 years have crossed these thresholds, such that conditions have become increasingly unsuitable for regeneration. High fire severity and low seed availability further reduced the probability of postfire regeneration. Together, our results demonstrate that climate change combined with high severity fire is leading to increasingly fewer opportunities for seedlings to establish after wildfires and may lead to ecosystem transitions in low-elevation ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests across the western United States.}, }
@article {pmid30858188, year = {2019}, author = {Mercer, C}, title = {Medical students call for more education on climate change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {191}, number = {10}, pages = {E291-E292}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-5717}, pmid = {30858188}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {Advisory Committees ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Clinical Competence ; Curriculum ; *Education, Medical, Undergraduate ; Humans ; Students, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid30856572, year = {2019}, author = {Fang, X and Guo, X and Zhang, C and Shao, H and Zhu, S and Li, Z and Feng, X and He, B}, title = {Contributions of climate change to the terrestrial carbon stock of the arid region of China: A multi-dataset analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {631-644}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.408}, pmid = {30856572}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Dryland ecosystems have been threatened in recent decades by rapid climate change. However, the effects of climate change and rising CO2 levels on the terrestrial carbon stock of the arid region of China remain unclear. In this study, we used three climate reanalysis datasets to drive an arid ecosystem model (AEM), which we used to assess uncertainties in spatial climate datasets. All simulations suggest that the arid region of China acted as a carbon sink (0.20-0.34 Pg C) from 1980 to 2014. However, we found large uncertainties in the spatial pattern of carbon stocks during this period, especially in northern Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia. These uncertainties are related to changes in precipitation. To reduce the uncertainty of carbon stock assessment results in the arid region of China, efforts should be implemented to improve the reliability of climate data in northern Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia. Specifically, China's policy makers should pay close attention to climate change and ecosystem health in southwestern Xinjiang. According to our study, this area experienced significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature from 1980 to 2014. The severe ecosystem degradation that occurred will very likely continue into the future. In addition, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset may overestimate ecosystem carbon sinks as this dataset overestimates the increase in precipitation in the arid region of China. Therefore, it is advisable to be cautious when using the CFSR dataset in ecological studies in northern Eurasian dryland areas.}, }
@article {pmid30853924, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, S and Hurlstone, MJ and Leviston, Z and Walker, I and Lawrence, C}, title = {Climate Change From a Distance: An Analysis of Construal Level and Psychological Distance From Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {230}, pmid = {30853924}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {The public perception of climate change as abstract and distant may undermine climate action. According to construal level theory, whether a phenomenon is perceived as psychologically distant or close is associated with whether it is construed as abstract or concrete, respectively. Previous work has established a link between psychological distance and climate action, but the associated role of construal level has yet to be explored in depth. In two representative surveys of Australians (N = 217 and N = 216), and one experiment (N = 319), we tested whether construal level and psychological distance from climate change predicted pro-environmental intentions and policy support, and whether manipulating distance and construal increased pro-environmental behaviors such as donations. Results showed that psychological closeness to climate change predicted more engagement in pro-environmental behaviors, while construal level produced inconsistent results, and manipulations of both variables failed to produce increases in pro-environmental behaviors. In contrast with the central tenet of construal level theory, construal level was unrelated to psychological distance in all three studies. Our findings suggest that the hypothesized relationship between construal level and psychological distance may not hold in the context of climate change, and that it may be difficult to change pro-environmental behavior by manipulating these variables.}, }
@article {pmid30852437, year = {2019}, author = {Adhikari, K and Owens, PR and Libohova, Z and Miller, DM and Wills, SA and Nemecek, J}, title = {Assessing soil organic carbon stock of Wisconsin, USA and its fate under future land use and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {667}, number = {}, pages = {833-845}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.420}, pmid = {30852437}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Carbon stored in soils contributes to a variety of soil functions, including biomass production, water storage and filtering, biodiversity maintenance, and many other ecosystem services. Understanding soil organic carbon (SOC) spatial distribution and projection of its future condition is essential for future CO2 emission estimates and management options for storing carbon. However, modeling SOC spatiotemporal dynamics is challenging due to the inherent spatial heterogeneity and data limitation. The present study developed a spatially explicit prediction model in which the spatial relationship between SOC observation and seventeen environmental variables was established using the Cubist regression tree algorithm. The model was used to compile a baseline SOC stock map for the top 30 cm soil depth in the State of Wisconsin (WI) at a 90 m × 90 m grid resolution. Temporal SOC trend was assessed by comparing baseline and future SOC stock maps based on the space-for-time substitution model. SOC prediction for future considers land use, precipitation and temperature for the year 2050 at medium (A1B) CO2 emissions scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Field soil observations were related to factors that are known to influence SOC distribution using the digital soil mapping framework. The model was validated on 25% test profiles (R[2]: 0.38; RMSE: 0.64; ME: -0.03) that were not used during model training that used the remaining 75% of the data (R[2]: 0.76; RMSE: 0.40; ME: -0.006). In addition, maps of the model error, and areal extent of Cubist prediction rules were reported. The model identified soil parent material and land use as key drivers of SOC distribution including temperature and precipitation. Among the terrain attributes, elevation, mass-balance index, mid-slope position, slope-length factor and wind effect were important. Results showed that Wisconsin soils had an average baseline SOC stock of 90 Mg ha[-1] and the distribution was highly variable (CV: 64%). It was estimated that WI soils would have an additional 20 Mg ha[-1] SOC by the year 2050 under changing land use and climate. Histosols and Spodosols were expected to lose 19 Mg ha[-1] and 4 Mg ha[-1], respectively, while Mollisols were expected to accumulate the largest SOC stock (62 Mg ha[-1]). All land-use types would be accumulating SOC by 2050 except for wetlands (-34 Mg C ha[-1]). This study found that Wisconsin soils will continue to sequester more carbon in the coming decades and most of the Driftless Area will be sequestering the greatest SOC (+63 Mg C ha[-1]). Most of the SOC would be lost from the Northern Lakes and Forests ecological zone (-12 Mg C ha[-1]). The study highlighted areas of potential C sequestration and areas under threat of C loss. The maps generated in this study would be highly useful in farm management and environmental policy decisions at different spatial levels in Wisconsin.}, }
@article {pmid30852195, year = {2019}, author = {Novak, T and Godrijan, J and Pfannkuchen, DM and Djakovac, T and Medić, N and Ivančić, I and Mlakar, M and Gašparović, B}, title = {Global warming and oligotrophication lead to increased lipid production in marine phytoplankton.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {668}, number = {}, pages = {171-183}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.372}, pmid = {30852195}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Chlorophyll A ; Diatoms/physiology ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Lipid Metabolism/*physiology ; Lipids ; Phytoplankton/*physiology ; Seawater/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Earth temperature is rising and oligotrophication is becoming apparent even in coastal seas. In this changing environment, phytoplankton use carbon and nutrients to form important biomolecules, including lipids. However, the link between lipid production and changing environment is still unexplored. Therefore, we investigated the phytoplankton lipid production in the diatom Chaetoceros pseudocurvisetus cultures under controlled temperatures ranging from 10 to 30 °C and nutrient regimes mimicking oligotrophic and eutrophic conditions. Results were compared to plankton community's lipid production in the northern Adriatic at two stations considered as oligotrophic and mesotrophic during an annual monthly sampling. In order to gain detailed information on the investigated system, we supplemented lipid data with chlorophyll a concentrations, phytoplankton taxonomy, cell abundances and nutrient concentration along with hydrographic parameters. We found enhanced particulate lipid production at higher temperatures, and substantially higher lipid production in oligotrophic conditions. Enhanced lipid production has two opposing roles in carbon sequestration; it can act as a retainer or a sinker. Lipid remodeling, including change in ratio of phospholipids and glycolipids, is more affected by the nutrient status, than the temperature increase. Triacylglycerol accumulation was observed under the nitrogen starvation.}, }
@article {pmid30850880, year = {2019}, author = {Rahman, HMT and Hickey, GM}, title = {Assessing Institutional Responses to Climate Change Impacts in the North-Eastern Floodplains of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {5}, pages = {596-614}, pmid = {30850880}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Politics ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Bangladesh encounters diverse climate change impacts at different scales, which can severely affect rural communities and livelihoods. In response, the government of Bangladesh has initiated a number of institutional interventions through development plans to better support sustainable adaptation. There have, however, been relatively few assessments of how these interventions have impacted sustainable local adaptation. Focusing on the highly climate-affected north-eastern floodplain region of Bangladesh, this paper presents the results of a literature synthesis supported by primary field data to identify how existing policy barriers can threaten institutional responses to climate change impacts, while institutional rigidity and the non-inclusiveness of bureaucratic polity work to undermine efficiency, effectiveness, and equitability-some important considerations for sustainable adaptation. Our results point toward the need for public policy to better enable broader public participation in the design, implementation, and evaluation of adaptation plans.}, }
@article {pmid30848903, year = {2019}, author = {Henry, CL and Pratson, LF}, title = {Differentiating the Effects of Climate Change-Induced Temperature and Streamflow Changes on the Vulnerability of Once-Through Thermoelectric Power Plants.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {7}, pages = {3969-3976}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.8b05718}, pmid = {30848903}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Power Plants ; Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Thermoelectric power plants with once-through cooling systems generated 30% (∼300 GW) of U.S. electricity in 2016. Factors that reduce once-through cooling capacity and thus power output are environmental regulations, warming surface waters, and drought. The latter two may become more frequent as global climate changes. Previous research indicates that reduction in power plant capacity caused by environmental regulations can be significant while that by surface water warming is minor. Here, we address the effect of droughts on power output, which until now has remained conflated with temperature impacts. We do this using a widely used electricity generation model alongside hourly operational and meteorological data for 52 once-through plants located across the U.S. The effect of drought on plant output is examined for different water-availability and temperature scenarios, with and without regulations on plant water discharge. We find that if surface waters warm 3 °C and river discharges drop 20%, droughts would account for ≤20% of total capacity reduction depending on the plant, warming surface waters ≤2.3%, and environmental regulations up to 80%. This suggests that maintaining environmental regulations will require the continued conversion of plant cooling systems from once-through to recirculating, and mitigating climate impacts will require more stringent drought-specific watershed management.}, }
@article {pmid30847111, year = {2019}, author = {Walsh, ES and Vierling, KT and Strand, E and Bartowitz, K and Hudiburg, TW}, title = {Climate change, woodpeckers, and forests: Current trends and future modeling needs.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {2305-2319}, pmid = {30847111}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The structure and composition of forest ecosystems are expected to shift with climate-induced changes in precipitation, temperature, fire, carbon mitigation strategies, and biological disturbance. These factors are likely to have biodiversity implications. However, climate-driven forest ecosystem models used to predict changes to forest structure and composition are not coupled to models used to predict changes to biodiversity. We proposed integrating woodpecker response (biodiversity indicator) with forest ecosystem models. Woodpeckers are a good indicator species of forest ecosystem dynamics, because they are ecologically constrained by landscape-scale forest components, such as composition, structure, disturbance regimes, and management activities. In addition, they are correlated with forest avifauna community diversity. In this study, we explore integrating woodpecker and forest ecosystem climate models. We review climate-woodpecker models and compare the predicted responses to observed climate-induced changes. We identify inconsistencies between observed and predicted responses, explore the modeling causes, and identify the models pertinent to integration that address the inconsistencies. We found that predictions in the short term are not in agreement with observed trends for 7 of 15 evaluated species. Because niche constraints associated with woodpeckers are a result of complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and disturbance, we hypothesize that the lack of adequate representation of these processes in the current broad-scale climate-woodpecker models results in model-data mismatch. As a first step toward improvement, we suggest a conceptual model of climate-woodpecker-forest modeling for integration. The integration model provides climate-driven forest ecosystem modeling with a measure of biodiversity while retaining the feedback between climate and vegetation in woodpecker climate change modeling.}, }
@article {pmid30847100, year = {2019}, author = {Yi, F and Wang, Z and Baskin, CC and Baskin, JM and Ye, R and Sun, H and Zhang, Y and Ye, X and Liu, G and Yang, X and Huang, Z}, title = {Seed germination responses to seasonal temperature and drought stress are species-specific but not related to seed size in a desert steppe: Implications for effect of climate change on community structure.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {2149-2159}, pmid = {30847100}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Investigating how seed germination of multiple species in an ecosystem responds to environmental conditions is crucial for understanding the mechanisms for community structure and biodiversity maintenance. However, knowledge of seed germination response of species to environmental conditions is still scarce at the community level. We hypothesized that responses of seed germination to environmental conditions differ among species at the community level, and that germination response is not correlated with seed size. To test this hypothesis, we determined the response of seed germination of 20 common species in the Siziwang Desert Steppe, China, to seasonal temperature regimes (representing April, May, June, and July) and drought stress (0, -0.003, -0.027, -0.155, and -0.87 MPa). Seed germination percentage increased with increasing temperature regime, but Allium ramosum, Allium tenuissimum, Artemisia annua, Artemisia mongolica, Artemisia scoparia, Artemisia sieversiana, Bassia dasyphylla, Kochia prastrata, and Neopallasia pectinata germinated to >60% in the lowest temperature regime (April). Germination decreased with increasing water stress, but Allium ramosum, Artemisia annua, Artemisia scoparia, Bassia dasyphylla, Heteropappus altaicus, Kochia prastrata, Neopallasia pectinata, and Potentilla tanacetifolia germinated to near 60% at -0.87 MPa. Among these eight species, germination of six was tolerant to both temperature and water stress. Mean germination percentage in the four temperature regimes and the five water potentials was not significantly correlated with seed mass or seed area, which were highly correlated. Our results suggest that the species-specific germination responses to environmental conditions are important in structuring the desert steppe community and have implications for predicting community structure under climate change. Thus, the predicted warmer and dryer climate will favor germination of drought-tolerant species, resulting in altered proportions of germinants of different species and subsequently change in community composition of the desert steppe.}, }
@article {pmid30847064, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, Y and Clauzel, C and Li, J and Xue, Y and Zhang, Y and Wu, G and Giraudoux, P and Li, L and Li, D}, title = {Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province, China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {1680-1690}, pmid = {30847064}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species' habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least-cost model for the current period (1960-1990) and the 2050s (2041-2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least-cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km[2] of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km[2] and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km[2] and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high-priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.}, }
@article {pmid30847059, year = {2019}, author = {Liles, MJ and Peterson, TR and Seminoff, JA and Gaos, AR and Altamirano, E and Henríquez, AV and Gadea, V and Chavarría, S and Urteaga, J and Wallace, BP and Peterson, MJ}, title = {Potential limitations of behavioral plasticity and the role of egg relocation in climate change mitigation for a thermally sensitive endangered species.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {1603-1622}, pmid = {30847059}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is widely considered a major threat to global biodiversity, such that the ability of a species to adapt will determine its likelihood of survival. Egg-burying reptiles that exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, such as critically endangered hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), are particularly vulnerable to changes in thermal regimes because nest temperatures affect offspring sex, fitness, and survival. It is unclear whether hawksbills possess sufficient behavioral plasticity of nesting traits (i.e., redistribution of nesting range, shift in nesting phenology, changes in nest-site selection, and adjustment of nest depth) to persist within their climatic niche or whether accelerated changes in thermal conditions of nesting beaches will outpace phenotypic adaption and require human intervention. For these reasons, we estimated sex ratios and physical condition of hatchling hawksbills under natural and manipulated conditions and generated and analyzed thermal profiles of hawksbill nest environments within highly threatened mangrove ecosystems at Bahía de Jiquilisco, El Salvador, and Estero Padre Ramos, Nicaragua. Hawksbill clutches protected in situ at both sites incubated at higher temperatures, yielded lower hatching success, produced a higher percentage of female hatchlings, and produced less fit offspring than clutches relocated to hatcheries. We detected cooler sand temperatures in woody vegetation (i.e., coastal forest and small-scale plantations of fruit trees) and hatcheries than in other monitored nest environments, with higher temperatures at the deeper depth. Our findings indicate that mangrove ecosystems present a number of biophysical (e.g., insular nesting beaches and shallow water table) and human-induced (e.g., physical barriers and deforestation) constraints that, when coupled with the unique life history of hawksbills in this region, may limit behavioral compensatory responses by the species to projected temperature increases at nesting beaches. We contend that egg relocation can contribute significantly to recovery efforts in a changing climate under appropriate circumstances.}, }
@article {pmid30846753, year = {2019}, author = {Haszpra, T and Herein, M}, title = {Ensemble-based analysis of the pollutant spreading intensity induced by climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3896}, pmid = {30846753}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The intensity of the atmospheric large-scale spreading can be characterized by a measure of chaotic systems, called topological entropy. A pollutant cloud stretches in an exponential manner in time, and in the atmospheric context the topological entropy corresponds to the stretching rate of its length. To explore the plethora of possible climate evolutions, we investigate here pollutant spreading in climate realizations of two climate models to learn what the typical spreading behavior is over a climate change. An overall decrease in the areal mean of the stretching rate is found to be typical in the ensembles of both climate models. This results in larger pollutant concentrations for several geographical regions implying higher environmental risk. A strong correlation is found between the time series of the ensemble mean values of the stretching rate and of the absolute value of the relative vorticity. Here we show that, based on the obtained relationship, the typical intensity of the spreading in an arbitrary climate realization can be estimated by using only the ensemble means of the relative vorticity data of a climate model.}, }
@article {pmid30843528, year = {2019}, author = {Saracci, R}, title = {[Reflections on time. From the clinic to climate change.].}, journal = {Recenti progressi in medicina}, volume = {110}, number = {2}, pages = {61-62}, doi = {10.1701/3112.30998}, pmid = {30843528}, issn = {2038-1840}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Physician-Patient Relations ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The often heard 'time is money' formula is today generally applied to all human activities: it implies that a gain in time is a gain in money, with the consequence of introducing a generalized pressure to minimize the execution time of all and every human operation. There are however processes that are just destroyed when their execution speed becomes faster and faster: any music piece, whose time structure is essential, is a prototype of these phenomena. Two apparently remote phenomena as the doctor-patient interaction and the control of global climatic change belong for different reasons to the same category of phenomena the priority of which cannot be derived using the 'time is money' formula but requires - before any accounting calculation - considering their intrinsic value for health and medicine.}, }
@article {pmid30843297, year = {2019}, author = {Wiens, JJ and Camacho, A and Goldberg, A and Jezkova, T and Kaplan, ME and Lambert, SM and Miller, EC and Streicher, JW and Walls, RL}, title = {Climate change, extinction, and Sky Island biogeography in a montane lizard.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {28}, number = {10}, pages = {2610-2624}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15073}, pmid = {30843297}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; Arizona ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/*genetics ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation/genetics ; Islands ; Lizards/*genetics ; Phylogeny ; *Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Around the world, many species are confined to "Sky Islands," with different populations in isolated patches of montane habitat. How does this pattern arise? One scenario is that montane species were widespread in lowlands when climates were cooler, and were isolated by local extinction caused by warming conditions. This scenario implies that many montane species may be highly susceptible to anthropogenic warming. Here, we test this scenario in a montane lizard (Sceloporus jarrovii) from the Madrean Sky Islands of southeastern Arizona. We combined data from field surveys, climate, population genomics, and physiology. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that this species' current distribution is explained by local extinction caused by past climate change. However, our results for this species differ from simple expectations in several ways: (a) their absence at lower elevations is related to warm winter temperatures, not hot summer temperatures; (b) they appear to exclude a low-elevation congener from higher elevations, not the converse; (c) they are apparently absent from many climatically suitable but low mountain ranges, seemingly "pushed off the top" by climates even warmer than those today; (d) despite the potential for dispersal among ranges during recent glacial periods (~18,000 years ago), populations in different ranges diverged ~4.5-0.5 million years ago and remained largely distinct; and (e) body temperatures are inversely related to climatic temperatures among sites. These results may have implications for many other Sky Island systems. More broadly, we suggest that Sky Island species may be relevant for predicting responses to future warming.}, }
@article {pmid30842886, year = {2019}, author = {Davis, BE and Cocherell, DE and Sommer, T and Baxter, RD and Hung, TC and Todgham, AE and Fangue, NA}, title = {Sensitivities of an endemic, endangered California smelt and two non-native fishes to serial increases in temperature and salinity: implications for shifting community structure with climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {coy076}, pmid = {30842886}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {In many aquatic systems, native fishes are in decline and the factors responsible are often elusive. In the San Francisco Estuary (SFE) in California, interactions among native and non-native species are key factors contributing to the decline in abundance of endemic, endangered Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). Climate change and drought-related stressors are further exacerbating declines. To assess how multiple environmental changes affect the physiology of native Delta Smelt and non-native Mississippi Silverside (Menidia beryllina) and Largemouth Bass (Micropterus salmoides), fishes were exposed to serial exposures of a single stressor (elevated temperature or salinity) followed by two stressors (elevated temperature and salinity) to determine how a single stressor affects the capacity to cope with the addition of a second stressor. Critical thermal maximum (CTMax; a measure of upper temperature tolerance) was determined after 0, 2, 4 and 7 days following single and multiple stressors of elevated temperature (16°C vs. 20°C) and salinity (2.4 vs. 8-12 ppt, depending on species). Under control conditions, non-native fishes had significantly higher CTMax than the native Delta Smelt. An initial temperature or salinity stressor did not negatively affect the ability of any species to tolerate a subsequent multiple stressor. While elevated salinity had little effect on CTMax, a 4°C increase in temperature increased CTMax. Bass experienced an additive effect of increased temperature and salinity on CTMax, such that CTMax further increased under multiple stressors. In addition, Bass demonstrated physiological sensitivity to multiple stressors demonstrated by changes in hematocrit and plasma osmolality, whereas the physiology of Silversides remained unaffected. Non-native Bass and Mississippi Silversides showed consistently higher thermal tolerance limits than the native Delta Smelt, supporting their abundance in warmer SFE habitats. Continued increases in SFE water temperatures predicted with climate change may further impact endangered Delta Smelt populations directly if habitat temperatures exceed thermal limits.}, }
@article {pmid30842480, year = {2019}, author = {Kubicek, A and Breckling, B and Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Reuter, H}, title = {Climate change drives trait-shifts in coral reef communities.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3721}, pmid = {30842480}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*growth &amp; development ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have profound, partly unforeseeable effects on the composition of functional traits of complex ecosystems, such as coral reefs, and some ecosystem properties are at risk of disappearing. This study applies a novel spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore three critical life history traits of corals: heat tolerance, competitiveness and growth performance under various environmental settings. Building upon these findings, we test the adaptation potential required by a coral community in order to not only survive but also retain its diversity by the end of this century under different IPCC climate scenarios. Even under the most favourable IPCC scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 2.6), model results indicate that shifts in the trait space are likely and coral communities will mainly consist of small numbers of temperature-tolerant and fast-growing species. Species composition of coral communities is likely to be determined by heat tolerance, with competitiveness most likely playing a subordinate role. To sustain ~15% of current coral cover under a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century (RCP 4.5), coral systems would have to accommodate temperature increases of 0.1-0.15 °C per decade, assuming that periodic extreme thermal events occurred every 8 years. These required adaptation rates are unprecedented and unlikely, given corals' life-history characteristics.}, }
@article {pmid30842430, year = {2019}, author = {Beetge, L and Krüger, K}, title = {Drought and heat waves associated with climate change affect performance of the potato aphid Macrosiphum euphorbiae.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3645}, pmid = {30842430}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Aphids/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Heat-Shock Response ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Plant Diseases/*parasitology ; Plant Leaves/parasitology/radiation effects ; Solanum tuberosum/*parasitology/radiation effects ; }, abstract = {The combined effect of drought and heat waves on insect-plant interactions is complex and not fully understood. Insects may indirectly benefit from water-deficit stress through increased plant nitrogen levels. Heat stress may have a direct negative effect, yet insect performance may be improved when day-time heat is followed by cooler night temperatures. We show that moderate water-deficit stress (25-30% pot capacity) and high day-night temperatures (30/20 °C) affected Macrosiphum euphorbiae on potato (Solanum tuberosum) differently than their interactions. Water stress lowered stomatal conductance, and both water and heat stress reduced leaf area. The effect of water stress on nymphal and adult survival depended on temperature. Water stress added to reduced nymphal survival at high but not current (25/15 °C) day-night temperatures. Adult survival at high temperatures was reduced only when combined with water stress. Water stress and high temperatures independently but not interactively reduced the number of daily offspring. Moderate water stress when combined with high temperatures had a negative bottom-up effect on aphid survival even though lower night temperatures aided in the recovery from direct heat stress. Our study illustrates the importance of combining multiple stressors to better understand their impact on insect-plant interactions in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30839015, year = {2019}, author = {}, title = {Environmental effects and interactions of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change: 2018 assessment.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {601}, doi = {10.1039/c8pp90066c}, pmid = {30839015}, issn = {1474-9092}, }
@article {pmid30836888, year = {2019}, author = {Hamilton, CD and Vacquié-Garcia, J and Kovacs, KM and Ims, RA and Kohler, J and Lydersen, C}, title = {Contrasting changes in space use induced by climate change in two Arctic marine mammal species.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {20180834}, pmid = {30836888}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Mammals ; Norway ; Svalbard ; }, abstract = {Global warming is inducing major environmental changes in the Arctic. These changes will differentially affect species owing to differences in climate sensitivity and behavioural plasticity. Arctic endemic marine mammals are expected to be impacted significantly by ongoing changes in their key habitats owing to their long life cycles and dependence on ice. Herein, unique biotelemetry datasets for ringed seals (RS; Pusa hispida) and white whales (WW; Delphinapterus leucas) from Svalbard, Norway, spanning two decades (1995-2016) are used to investigate how these species have responded to reduced sea-ice cover and increased Atlantic water influxes. Tidal glacier fronts were traditionally important foraging areas for both species. Following a period with dramatic environmental change, RS now spend significantly more time near tidal glaciers, where Arctic prey presumably still concentrate. Conversely, WW spend significantly less time near tidal glacier fronts and display spatial patterns that suggest that they are foraging on Atlantic fishes that are new to the region. Differences in levels of dietary specialization and overall behavioural plasticity are likely reasons for similar environmental pressures affecting these species differently. Climate change adjustments through behavioural plasticity will be vital for species survival in the Arctic, given the rapidity of change and limited dispersal options.}, }
@article {pmid30835141, year = {2019}, author = {Heaney, AK and Carrión, D and Burkart, K and Lesk, C and Jack, D}, title = {Climate Change and Physical Activity: Estimated Impacts of Ambient Temperatures on Bikeshare Usage in New York City.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {127}, number = {3}, pages = {37002}, pmid = {30835141}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T32 ES023770/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Bicycling/*statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *Climate Change ; *Exercise ; Forecasting ; Humans ; New York City ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Physical activity is one of the best disease prevention strategies, and it is influenced by environmental factors such as temperature.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We aimed to illuminate the relation between ambient temperature and bikeshare usage and to project how climate change-induced increasing ambient temperatures may influence active transportation in New York City.<br><br>METHODS: The analysis leverages Citi Bike&#xae; bikeshare data to estimate participation in outdoor bicycling in New York City. Exposure-response functions are estimated for the relation between daily temperature and bike usage from 2013 to 2017. The estimated exposure-response relation is combined with temperature outputs from 21 climate models (run with emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to explore how climate change may influence future bike utilization.<br><br>RESULTS: Estimated daily hours and distance ridden significantly increased as temperatures increased, but then declined at temperatures above 26-28&#xb0;C. Bike usage may increase by up to 3.1% by 2070 due to climate change. Future ridership increases during the winter, spring, and fall may more than offset future declines in summer ridership.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Evidence suggesting nonlinear impacts of rising temperatures on health-promoting bicycle ridership demonstrates how challenging it is to anticipate the health consequences of climate change. We project increases in bicycling by mid-century in NYC, but this trend may reverse as temperatures continue to rise further into the future. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4039.}, }
@article {pmid30833952, year = {2019}, author = {Whipple, AV and Cobb, NS and Gehring, CA and Mopper, S and Flores-Rentería, L and Whitham, TG}, title = {Long-Term Studies Reveal Differential Responses to Climate Change for Trees Under Soil- or Herbivore-Related Stress.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {132}, pmid = {30833952}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Worldwide, trees are confronting increased temperature and aridity, exacerbating susceptibility to herbivory. Long-term studies comparing patterns of plant performance through drought can help identify variation among and within populations in vulnerability to climate change and herbivory. We use long-term monitoring data to examine our overarching hypothesis that the negative impacts of poor soil and herbivore susceptibility would be compounded by severe drought. We studied pinyon pine, Pinus edulis, a widespread southwestern tree species that has suffered extensive climate-change related mortality. We analyzed data on mortality, growth, male reproduction, and herbivory collected for 14-32 years in three areas with distinct soil-types. We used standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as a climate proxy that summarizes the impacts of drought due to precipitation and temperature variation on semi-arid forests. Several key findings emerged: (1) Plant performance measurements did not support our hypothesis that trees growing in stressful, coarse-textured soils would suffer more than trees growing in finer-textured soils. Stem growth at the area with coarse, young cinder soils (area one) responded only weakly to drought, while stem growth on more developed soils with sedimentary (area two) and volcanic (area three) substrates, was strongly negatively affected by drought. Male reproduction declined less with drought at area one and more at areas two and three. Overall mortality was 30% on coarse cinder soils (area one) and averaged 55% on finer soil types (areas two and three). (2) Although moth herbivore susceptible trees were hypothesized to suffer more with drought than moth resistant trees, the opposite occurred. Annual stem growth was negatively affected by drought for moth resistant trees, but much less strongly for moth susceptible trees. (3) In contrast to our hypothesis, moths declined with drought. Overall, chronically water-stressed and herbivore-susceptible trees had smaller declines in performance relative to less-stressed trees during drought years. These long-term findings support the idea that stressed trees might be more resistant to drought since they may have adapted or acclimated to resist drought-related mortality.}, }
@article {pmid30833238, year = {2019}, author = {Lunt, PH and Fyfe, RM and Tappin, AD}, title = {Role of recent climate change on carbon sequestration in peatland systems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {667}, number = {}, pages = {348-358}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.239}, pmid = {30833238}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Carbon Cycle ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; England ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Soil ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {This paper provides information on the impact of recent climate change on carbon sequestration in peatland systems in South West England. This is important because peatlands have the potential to sequester and hold large quantities of anthropogenically released CO2. This paper investigates whether there has been a reduction in the strength of carbon sinks in a valley mire and blanket bog, which occur on the limits of the biogeographical envelop for peatlands in Britain. Past rates of carbon accumulation were calculated from peat depth and the sequential analysis of peat age, bulk density and carbon content from cores taken from valley mire and blanket bog. At the valley mire site contemporary net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was calculated by measuring inputs to the peat body, via net primary productivity (NPP), of Sphagna. Losses of C from the peat body were calculated by measuring CH4, and aquatic carbon, calculated from catchment export of particulate and dissolved organic carbon. The study found similar mean rates of carbon accumulation since 1850 of 11.26 t ± 0.68 t CO2e ha[-1] yr[-1] (307 g C m[-2] yr[-1]) in valley mire and 11.77 t ± 0.88 t CO2e ha[-1] yr[-1] (321 g C m[-2] yr[-1]) in blanket bog. The mean present-day CO2 sequestration rate for Sphagna on valley mire was calculated to be 9.13 t ± 0.98 t CO2e ha[-1] yr[-1] (249 g C m[-2] yr[-1]). Both past and contemporary rates of CO2 sequestration were found to be at the maxima of those reported for temperate peatlands. NPP was found to vary according to microform with higher rates of carbon sequestration found in lawn and hummock microforms compared with pools. Our work suggests that recent changes in the climate appear to have had limited impact on the strength of peatland carbon sinks in South West England.}, }
@article {pmid30829832, year = {2019}, author = {Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Sera, F and Gasparrini, A}, title = {Hands-on Tutorial on a Modeling Framework for Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Health.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {321-329}, pmid = {30829832}, issn = {1531-5487}, support = {MR/M022625/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; MR/R013349/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; User-Computer Interface ; }, abstract = {Reliable estimates of future health impacts due to climate change are needed to inform and contribute to the design of efficient adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, projecting health burdens associated to specific environmental stressors is a challenging task because of the complex risk patterns and inherent uncertainty of future climate scenarios. These assessments involve multidisciplinary knowledge, requiring expertise in epidemiology, statistics, and climate science, among other subjects. Here, we present a methodologic framework to estimate future health impacts under climate change scenarios based on a defined set of assumptions and advanced statistical techniques developed in time-series analysis in environmental epidemiology. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a step-by-step hands-on tutorial structured in well-defined sections that cover the main methodological steps and essential elements. Each section provides a thorough description of each step, along with a discussion on available analytical options and the rationale on the choices made in the proposed framework. The illustration is complemented with a practical example of study using real-world data and a series of R scripts included as Supplementary Digital Content; http://links.lww.com/EDE/B504, which facilitates its replication and extension on other environmental stressors, outcomes, study settings, and projection scenarios. Users should critically assess the potential modeling alternatives and modify the framework and R code to adapt them to their research on health impact projections.}, }
@article {pmid30826366, year = {2019}, author = {Poole, JA and Barnes, CS and Demain, JG and Bernstein, JA and Padukudru, MA and Sheehan, WJ and Fogelbach, GG and Wedner, J and Codina, R and Levetin, E and Cohn, JR and Kagen, S and Portnoy, JM and Nel, AE}, title = {Impact of weather and climate change with indoor and outdoor air quality in asthma: A Work Group Report of the AAAAI Environmental Exposure and Respiratory Health Committee.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {143}, number = {5}, pages = {1702-1710}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2019.02.018}, pmid = {30826366}, issn = {1097-6825}, support = {K23 AI104780/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; L40 AI107923/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/immunology ; Air Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Air Pollution, Indoor ; Allergens/immunology ; Asthma/*epidemiology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology ; Risk ; United States/epidemiology ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Weather and climate change are constant and ever-changing processes that affect allergy and asthma. The purpose of this report is to provide information since the last climate change review with a focus on asthmatic disease. PubMed and Internet searches for topics included climate and weather change, air pollution, particulates, greenhouse gasses, traffic, insect habitat, and mitigation in addition to references contributed by the individual authors. Changes in patterns of outdoor aeroallergens caused by increasing temperatures and amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are major factors linked to increased duration of pollen seasons, increased pollen production, and possibly increased allergenicity of pollen. Indoor air pollution threats anticipated from climate changes include microbial and mold growth secondary to flooding, resulting in displacement of persons and need for respiratory protection of exposed workers. Air pollution from indoor burning of mosquito repellants is a potential anticipatory result of an increase in habitat regions. Air pollution from fossil fuel burning and traffic-related emissions can alter respiratory defense mechanisms and work synergistically with specific allergens to enhance immunogenicity to worsen asthma in susceptible subjects. Community efforts can significantly reduce air pollution, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emission and improving air quality. The allergist's approach to weather pattern changes should be integrated and anticipatory to protect at-risk patients.}, }
@article {pmid30825817, year = {2019}, author = {Moraitis, ML and Valavanis, VD and Karakassis, I}, title = {Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of benthic indicator species in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {667}, number = {}, pages = {16-24}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.338}, pmid = {30825817}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/physiology ; Bivalvia/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Greece ; Mediterranean Sea ; Models, Biological ; Salinity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The potential effects of climate change on the distribution of benthic species commonly used in marine ecological quality assessment were investigated using a spatial modelling approach. In this work, the relevance of the ecological groups that macrofaunal molluscs are assigned according to their sensitivity or tolerance to environmental disturbance was examined under the scope of the RCP 8.5 severe emissions scenario. The effects of climate change were more profound on species that are indicative of a specific suite of climatic conditions regarding temperature and salinity. Significant loss of habitat suitability was observed for the tolerant species Corbula gibba and Abra prismatica whereas the sensitive species Moerella donacina was least affected. In contrast, an overall expansion of the distributional potential was observed for the sensitive species Flexopecten hyalinus as newly suitable habitats are formed. As hypothesised, the current ecological grouping that depicts the sensitivity of a benthic species to an environmental stressor is irrelevant when assessing the effects of climate change. We propose a new standpoint of using benthic species as biotic tools based on their ecological niche requirements.}, }
@article {pmid30825413, year = {2019}, author = {Coates, SJ and McCalmont, TH and Williams, ML}, title = {Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change in the Practice of Dermatology-A Call to Action.}, journal = {JAMA dermatology}, volume = {155}, number = {4}, pages = {415-416}, doi = {10.1001/jamadermatol.2018.5863}, pmid = {30825413}, issn = {2168-6084}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Dermatology/*trends ; Forecasting ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Policy Making ; Practice Patterns, Physicians'/trends ; Skin Diseases/*etiology/physiopathology/therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid30824774, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, C and Wang, Z and Kong, Y and Zhang, F and Yang, K and Zhang, T}, title = {Most of the Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Remains under Climate Change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3295}, pmid = {30824774}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Degradation of cryospheric components such as arctic sea ice and permafrost may pose a threat to the Earth's climate system. A rise of 2 °C above pre-industrial global surface temperature is considered to be a risk-level threshold. This study investigates the impacts of global temperature rises of 1.5 °C and 2 °C on the extent of the permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), based on the 17 models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that, when global surface temperature rises by 1.5 °C, the average permafrost extent projected under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios would decrease by 23.58% for RCP2.6 (2027-2036), 24.1% for RCP4.5 (2026-2035) and 25.55% for RCP8.5 (2023-2032). However, uncertainty in the results persists because of distinct discrepancies among the models. When the global surface temperature rises by 2 °C, about one-third of the permafrost would disappear; in other words, most of the NH permafrost would still remain even in the RCP8.5 (2037-2046) scenario. The results of the study highlight that the NH permafrost might be able to stably exist owing to its relatively slow degradation. This outlook gives reason for hope for future maintenance and balance of the cryosphere and climate systems.}, }
@article {pmid30823558, year = {2019}, author = {Kais, SM and Islam, MS}, title = {Perception of Climate Change in Shrimp-Farming Communities in Bangladesh: A Critical Assessment.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {30823558}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aquaculture ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Policy ; Farmers/*psychology ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; *Penaeidae ; *Perception ; Risk ; *Shellfish ; }, abstract = {Local contexts as well as levels of exposure play a substantial role in defining a community's perception of climate and environmental vulnerabilities. In order to assess a community's adaptation strategies, understanding of how different groups in that community comprehend climate change is crucial. Public risk perception is important as it can induce or confine political, economic, and social actions dealing with particular hazards. Climate change adaptation is a well-established policy discourse in Bangladesh that has made its people more or less aware of it. Similarly, shrimp-farming communities in southwestern Bangladesh understand environmental and climate change in their own ways. In order to understand how the shrimp-farming communities in coastal Bangladesh perceive current climate instabilities, we conducted a qualitative study in shrimp-farming villages in coastal Bangladesh where about 80% of commercial shrimp of the country is cultivated. We compared farmers' perceptions of local climate change with existing scientific knowledge and found remarkable similarities. Our assessment shows that at least two factors are critical for this outcome: coastal people's exposure to and experience of frequent climate extremes; and a radical approach to defining climate regimes in Bangladesh by various stakeholders and the media, depicting anthropogenic global warming as a certainty for the country. Thus, a convergence of scientific construct and sociocultural construct construes the level of awareness of the general public about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30821446, year = {2019}, author = {Ren, J and Wang, X and Gong, P and Wang, C}, title = {Characterization of Tibetan Soil As a Source or Sink of Atmospheric Persistent Organic Pollutants: Seasonal Shift and Impact of Global Warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {53}, number = {7}, pages = {3589-3598}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b00698}, pmid = {30821446}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants ; Arctic Regions ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Environmental Pollutants ; Global Warming ; Norway ; *Polychlorinated Biphenyls ; Seasons ; Soil ; *Soil Pollutants ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Background soils are reservoirs of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). After decades of reduced primary emissions, it is now possible that the POPs contained in these reservoirs are being remobilized because of climate warming. However, a comprehensive investigation into the remobilization of POPs from background soil on the largest and highest plateau on Earth, the Tibetan Plateau (TP), is lacking. In this study, a sampling campaign was carried out on the TP at three background sites with different land cover types (forest, meadow and desert). Field measurements of the air-soil exchange of POPs showed that previous prediction using empirical models overestimated the values of the soil-air partitioning coefficient (KSA), especially for chemicals with KOA > 9. The direction of exchange for γ-HCH, HCB, and PCB-28 overlapped with the air-soil equilibrium range, but with a tendency for volatilization. Their emission fluxes were 720, 2935, and 538 pg m[-2] day[-1], respectively, and were similar in extent to those observed for background Arctic soil in Norway. Nam Co and Ngari are also permafrost regions, and most chemicals at these two sites exhibited volatilization. This is the first result showing that permafrost can also emit POPs. Seasonally, we found that chemicals tended to be re-emitted from soils to the atmosphere in winter and deposited from the air to the soil in summer. This finding is opposite to most previous results, possibly because of the higher air-soil concentration gradient caused by the prevailing transport of POPs in summer. Climate warming exerts a strong influence on air-soil exchange, with an increase of 1 °C in ambient temperature likely leading to an increase of Tibetan atmospheric inventories of POPs by 60-400%.}, }
@article {pmid30821414, year = {2019}, author = {Rosa, WE and Schenk, E and Travers, JL and Nicholas, PK}, title = {Climate change and health consequences: Engaging public health nursing within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {107-108}, doi = {10.1111/phn.12598}, pmid = {30821414}, issn = {1525-1446}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Goals ; Humans ; Nursing Services/*trends ; Public Health Nursing/*trends ; Sustainable Development/*trends ; United Nations/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid30819951, year = {2019}, author = {Plagányi, &#xc9;}, title = {Climate change impacts on fisheries.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {363}, number = {6430}, pages = {930-931}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw5824}, pmid = {30819951}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; }, }
@article {pmid30816191, year = {2019}, author = {Brivio, F and Zurmühl, M and Grignolio, S and von Hardenberg, J and Apollonio, M and Ciuti, S}, title = {Forecasting the response to global warming in a heat-sensitive species.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3048}, pmid = {30816191}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Acclimatization/physiology ; Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Animals, Wild/*physiology ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Energy Metabolism/physiology ; Forecasting ; *Global Warming ; Heat-Shock Response/*physiology ; Hot Temperature ; Locomotion/physiology ; Male ; Ruminants/*physiology ; Seasons ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {Avoiding hyperthermia entails considerable metabolic costs for endotherms. Such costs increase in warm conditions, when endotherms may trade food intake for cooler areas to avoid heat stress and maximize their energy balance. The need to reduce heat stress may involve the adoption of tactics affecting space use and foraging behaviour, which are important to understand and predict the effects of climate change and inform conservation. We used resource selection models to examine the behavioural response to heat stress in the Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), a cold-adapted endotherm particularly prone to overheating. Ibex avoided heat stress by selecting the space based on the maximum daily temperature rather than moving hourly to 'surf the heat wave', which minimised movement costs but prevented optimal foraging. By integrating these findings with new climate forecasts, we predict that rising temperatures will force mountain ungulates to move upward and overcrowd thermal refugia with reduced carrying capacity. Our approach helps in identifying priority areas for the conservation of mountain species.}, }
@article {pmid30813647, year = {2019}, author = {Mironova, V and Shartova, N and Beljaev, A and Varentsov, M and Grishchenko, M}, title = {Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates оn the Development of Malaria Parasite (Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {30813647}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Malaria, Vivax/epidemiology/*transmission ; Moscow/epidemiology ; Plasmodium vivax/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {The article presents the results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the changes of the favorability of climatic conditions for the transmission of vivax malaria in the Moscow megacity and its surroundings during the period from 1977 to 2016. Using the historical temperature records at urban and rural weather stations, we calculated the key indicators of climate favorability for malaria transmission, viz. the sum of effective temperatures, the duration of the season of effective infectiveness, and a new integral index of climate favorability. We demonstrated a dramatic increase of all three indicators, which accelerated after 1984, and a high spatial heterogeneity among them. Due to the urban heat island effect, the degree of climatic favorability is especially high in the densely urbanized areas of Moscow megacity compared with the suburban and rural areas. Climatic conditions for vivax malaria in Moscow are better now than before. The season of effective infectiveness continues in the central part of the city for 25 days longer, and the integral index of climate favorability is 85% higher in comparison to mean values over the rural surroundings. The study contains an alert regarding the risk of malaria resurgence in the Moscow region in the case of the sufficient importation of cases from abroad.}, }
@article {pmid30813633, year = {2019}, author = {Nie, T and Zhang, Z and Qi, Z and Chen, P and Sun, Z and Liu, X}, title = {Characterizing Spatiotemporal Dynamics of CH4 Fluxes from Rice Paddies of Cold Region in Heilongjiang Province under Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {30813633}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Greenhouse Gases/*analysis ; Methane/*analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Paddy fields have become a major global anthropogenic CH4 emission source, and climate change affects CH4 emissions from paddy ecosystems by changing crop growth and the soil environment. It has been recognized that Heilongjiang Province has become an important source of CH4 emission due to its dramatically increased rice planting area, while less attention has been paid to characterize the effects of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of CH4 fluxes. In this study, we used the calibrated and validated Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model and DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model to simulate historical and future CH4 fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of four global climate models (GCMs) in Heilongjiang Province. During 1960[-]2015, the average CH4 fluxes and climatic tendencies were 145.56 kg C/ha and 11.88 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively. Spatially, the CH4 fluxes showed a decreasing trend from west to east, and the climatic tendencies in the northern and western parts were higher. During 2021[-]2080, the annual average CH4 fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were predicted to be 213.46 kg C/ha and 252.19 kg C/ha, respectively, and their spatial distributions were similar to the historical distribution. The average climatic tendencies were 13.40 kg C/ha/(10a) and 29.86 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively, which decreased from west to east. The simulation scenario analysis showed that atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature affected CH4 fluxes by changing soil organic carbon (SOC) content and plant biomass. This study indicated that a paddy ecosystem in a cold region is an important part of China's greenhouse gas emission inventory in future scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30811858, year = {2019}, author = {Ylönen, H and Haapakoski, M and Sievert, T and Sundell, J}, title = {Voles and weasels in the boreal Fennoscandian small mammal community: what happens if the least weasel disappears due to climate change?.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {327-340}, pmid = {30811858}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {Animals ; Arvicolinae/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Finland ; *Food Chain ; Mustelidae/*physiology ; Norway ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {Climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats for populations and a challenge for individual behavior, interactions and survival. Predator-prey interactions are modified by climate processes. In the northern latitudes, strong seasonality is changing and the main predicted feature is shortening and instability of winter. Vole populations in the boreal Fennoscandia exhibit multiannual cycles. High amplitude peak numbers of voles and dramatic population lows alternate in 3-5-year cycles shortening from North to South. One key factor, or driver, promoting the population crash and causing extreme extended lows, is suggested to be predation by the least weasel. We review the arms race between prey voles and weasels through the multiannual density fluctuation, affected by climate change, and especially the changes in the duration and stability of snow cover. For ground-dwelling small mammals, snow provides thermoregulation and shelter for nest sites, and helps them hide from predators. Predicted increases in the instability of winter forms a major challenge for species with coat color change between brown summer camouflage and white winter coat. One of these is the least weasel, Mustela nivalis nivalis. Increased vulnerability of wrong-colored weasels to predation affects vole populations and may have dramatic effects on vole dynamics. It may have cascading effects on other small rodent-predator interactions and even on plant-animal interactions and forest dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid30810563, year = {2019}, author = {Andrady, AL and Pandey, KK and Heikkilä, AM}, title = {Interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on material damage.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {804-825}, doi = {10.1039/c8pp90065e}, pmid = {30810563}, issn = {1474-9092}, abstract = {Solar UV radiation adversely affects the properties of organic materials used in construction, such as plastics and wood. The outdoor service lifetimes of these materials are influenced by their rates of degradation under solar UV radiation as well as by other climate factors such as temperature, moisture, and atmospheric pollutants. While recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer is expected, local increases in UV radiation are still likely to occur, especially in the tropics, but also elsewhere because of climate change effects. Such increases, when taken together with an increased ambient temperature due to climate change, can significantly shorten the service lifetimes of organic building materials. Several proven technologies, including the use of UV stabilisers, surface treatments or coatings have been developed over the years to mitigate these adverse effects. While these technologies should be able to compensate for any realistic future UV radiation and climate change scenarios, they will also add significantly to the lifetime cost of material in relevant products. Shorter outdoor lifetime of the plastic components in photovoltaic (PV) modules is a serious concern in the solar energy industry. To ensure module durability over the full service-lifetime (of about ∼20 years) of the light-harvesting PV components, better stabilisation technologies are being investigated. The present trend towards more environmentally sustainable materials in building, and environmental impact of additives such as stabilisers, need to be considered in addition to their engineering performance. This may require the phasing out of some conventional additives used in plastics as well as substituting wood or other materials in place of plastics in buildings. Depending on the relative costs of mitigation, substituting more UV-stable materials for conventional ones in outdoor products may also be a viable option with some categories of products. Neither the global cost of mitigation of the effects of climate change on materials nor the long-term sustainability of the technologies available for the purpose, have been estimated. Plastic waste and litter exposed outdoors to solar UV radiation over extended periods undergo cracking and fragmentation into small pieces (of micro- and nano-scale size). Release of these fragments into the environment, particularly in the aquatic environment, poses a potential threat to marine biota. Already several hundred of species are known to ingest these fragments that can potentially accumulate additives and pollutants from water. This is a potential threat to humans because 25% of fish marketed for human consumption have been reported to contain microplastics in their digestive systems. The focus of this assessment is on recent advances in understanding the mechanisms of UV-radiation-induced degradation in materials and in assessing emerging technologies for their stabilisation against outdoor UV-degradation. A better understanding of the mechanisms of degradation will allow for innovative stabilisation approaches to be developed. Also assessed is information on the sustainability of the available and emerging UV stabilisation technologies.}, }
@article {pmid30810561, year = {2019}, author = {Williamson, CE and Neale, PJ and Hylander, S and Rose, KC and Figueroa, FL and Robinson, SA and Häder, DP and Wängberg, S&#xc5; and Worrest, RC}, title = {The interactive effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change on aquatic ecosystems.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {717-746}, doi = {10.1039/c8pp90062k}, pmid = {30810561}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Aquaculture ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology/radiation effects ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollution/adverse effects/analysis ; Fishes/physiology ; Fresh Water/analysis ; Ice Cover/chemistry ; Oceans and Seas ; *Ozone Depletion ; Photosynthesis ; Stratospheric Ozone/analysis ; *Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; Zooplankton/physiology ; }, abstract = {This assessment summarises the current state of knowledge on the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on aquatic ecosystems, focusing on how these affect exposures to UV radiation in both inland and oceanic waters. The ways in which stratospheric ozone depletion is directly altering climate in the southern hemisphere and the consequent extensive effects on aquatic ecosystems are also addressed. The primary objective is to synthesise novel findings over the past four years in the context of the existing understanding of ecosystem response to UV radiation and the interactive effects of climate change. If it were not for the Montreal Protocol, stratospheric ozone depletion would have led to high levels of exposure to solar UV radiation with much stronger negative effects on all trophic levels in aquatic ecosystems than currently experienced in both inland and oceanic waters. This "world avoided" scenario that has curtailed ozone depletion, means that climate change and other environmental variables will play the primary role in regulating the exposure of aquatic organisms to solar UV radiation. Reductions in the thickness and duration of snow and ice cover are increasing the levels of exposure of aquatic organisms to UV radiation. Climate change was also expected to increase exposure by causing shallow mixed layers, but new data show deepening in some regions and shoaling in others. In contrast, climate-change related increases in heavy precipitation and melting of glaciers and permafrost are increasing the concentration and colour of UV-absorbing dissolved organic matter (DOM) and particulates. This is leading to the "browning" of many inland and coastal waters, with consequent loss of the valuable ecosystem service in which solar UV radiation disinfects surface waters of parasites and pathogens. Many organisms can reduce damage due to exposure to UV radiation through behavioural avoidance, photoprotection, and photoenzymatic repair, but meta-analyses continue to confirm negative effects of UV radiation across all trophic levels. Modeling studies estimating photoinhibition of primary production in parts of the Pacific Ocean have demonstrated that the UV radiation component of sunlight leads to a 20% decrease in estimates of primary productivity. Exposure to UV radiation can also lead to positive effects on some organisms by damaging less UV-tolerant predators, competitors, and pathogens. UV radiation also contributes to the formation of microplastic pollutants and interacts with artificial sunscreens and other pollutants with adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. Exposure to UV-B radiation can decrease the toxicity of some pollutants such as methyl mercury (due to its role in demethylation) but increase the toxicity of other pollutants such as some pesticides and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Feeding on microplastics by zooplankton can lead to bioaccumulation in fish. Microplastics are found in up to 20% of fish marketed for human consumption, potentially threatening food security. Depletion of stratospheric ozone has altered climate in the southern hemisphere in ways that have increased oceanic productivity and consequently the growth, survival and reproduction of many sea birds and mammals. In contrast, warmer sea surface temperatures related to these climate shifts are also correlated with declines in both kelp beds in Tasmania and corals in Brazil. This assessment demonstrates that knowledge of the interactive effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change factors on aquatic ecosystems has advanced considerably over the past four years and confirms the importance of considering synergies between environmental factors.}, }
@article {pmid30810560, year = {2019}, author = {Bornman, JF and Barnes, PW and Robson, TM and Robinson, SA and Jansen, MAK and Ballaré, CL and Flint, SD}, title = {Linkages between stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate change and their implications for terrestrial ecosystems.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {681-716}, doi = {10.1039/c8pp90061b}, pmid = {30810560}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollutants/analysis ; Fresh Water/analysis ; Global Warming ; Harmful Algal Bloom/radiation effects ; Light ; Models, Chemical ; Natural Resources ; Photolysis/radiation effects ; Seawater/analysis ; Stratospheric Ozone/*analysis ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Exposure of plants and animals to ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B; 280-315 nm) is modified by stratospheric ozone dynamics and climate change. Even though stabilisation and projected recovery of stratospheric ozone is expected to curtail future increases in UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, on-going changes in climate are increasingly exposing plants and animals to novel combinations of UV-B radiation and other climate change factors (e.g., ultraviolet-A and visible radiation, water availability, temperature and elevated carbon dioxide). Climate change is also shifting vegetation cover, geographic ranges of species, and seasonal timing of development, which further modifies exposure to UV-B radiation. Since our last assessment, there has been increased understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which plants perceive UV-B radiation, eliciting changes in growth, development and tolerances of abiotic and biotic factors. However, major questions remain on how UV-B radiation is interacting with other climate change factors to modify the production and quality of crops, as well as important ecosystem processes such as plant and animal competition, pest-pathogen interactions, and the decomposition of dead plant matter (litter). In addition, stratospheric ozone depletion is directly contributing to climate change in the southern hemisphere, such that terrestrial ecosystems in this region are being exposed to altered patterns of precipitation, temperature and fire regimes as well as UV-B radiation. These ozone-driven changes in climate have been implicated in both increases and reductions in the growth, survival and reproduction of plants and animals in Antarctica, South America and New Zealand. In this assessment, we summarise advances in our knowledge of these and other linkages and effects, and identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the ecological consequences of these environmental changes on terrestrial ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30810472, year = {2019}, author = {Meza-Palacios, R and Aguilar-Lasserre, AA and Morales-Mendoza, LF and Pérez-Gallardo, JR and Rico-Contreras, JO and Avarado-Lassman, A}, title = {Life cycle assessment of cane sugar production: The environmental contribution to human health, climate change, ecosystem quality and resources in México.}, journal = {Journal of environmental science and health. Part A, Toxic/hazardous substances &amp; environmental engineering}, volume = {54}, number = {7}, pages = {668-678}, doi = {10.1080/10934529.2019.1579537}, pmid = {30810472}, issn = {1532-4117}, mesh = {Biofuels ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Environmental Pollution/*analysis ; Food Industry/*methods ; Humans ; Mexico ; Saccharum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The cane sugar industry in Mexico depends heavily on the supply of energy, fossil fuels and material resources for its proper operation. The overuse of these resources plus the technical and technological deficiency causes severe environmental consequences. This scientific work aims to analyze the environmental damage attributable to cane sugar production following the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. System boundaries include sugarcane growing and harvesting, sugarcane transportation, sugar milling and electricity cogeneration from bagasse. The associated emissions were acquired from the SimaPro-Ecoinvent database, the Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels (RSB) and the Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon Research Station (ART). The life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) was carried out by SimaPro 8.3.0 software and the characterization method used was IMPACT 2002+. The results show that sugarcane growing and harvesting stage provides the most harmful environmental impacts (52%) followed by electricity cogeneration (25.7%), sugarcane transportation (12.1%) and finally, sugar milling (10.2%). Regarding the environmental contributions at the endpoint categories, the highest percentage of impacts is found in the Human health category (53%), followed by Climate change (21%), Ecosystem quality (16%) and Resources (10%). The LCA in cane sugar production can support the decision-making process to deal with this environmental problem.}, }
@article {pmid30809708, year = {2019}, author = {Prokosch, J and Bernitz, Z and Bernitz, H and Erni, B and Altwegg, R}, title = {Are animals shrinking due to climate change? Temperature-mediated selection on body mass in mountain wagtails.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {189}, number = {3}, pages = {841-849}, pmid = {30809708}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {85802//National Research Foundation of South Africa (NRF)/ ; 114696//National Research Foundation of South Africa (NRF)/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; *Passeriformes ; South Africa ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change appears to affect body size of animals whose optimal size in part depends on temperature. However, attribution of observed body size changes to climate change requires an understanding of the selective pressures acting on body size under different temperatures. We examined the link between temperature and body mass in a population of mountain wagtails (Motacilla clara) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, between 1976 and 1999, where temperature increased by 0.18 [Formula: see text]C. The wagtails became lighter by 0.035 g per year. Partitioning this trend, we found that only a small part of the effect (0.009 g/year) was due to individuals losing weight and a large part (0.027 g/year) was due to lighter individuals replacing heavier ones. Only the latter component was statistically significant. Apparently, the wagtails were reacting to selection for reduced weight. Examining survival, we found that selection was temperature-mediated, i.e., lighter individuals survived better under high temperatures, whereas heavier individuals survived better under low temperatures. Our results thus support the hypothesis that temperature drove the decline in body mass in this wagtail population and provides one of the first demonstrations of the selective forces underlying such trends.}, }
@article {pmid30809384, year = {2019}, author = {Kim, Y and Newman, G}, title = {Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston.}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {30809384}, issn = {2071-1050}, support = {P42 ES027704/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Rising sea levels and coastal population growth will increase flood risk of more people and assets if land use changes are not planned adequately. This research examines the efficacy of flood protection systems and land use planning by comparing Amsterdam in the Netherlands (renown for resilience planning methods), with the city of Houston, Texas in the US (seeking ways of increasing resilience due to extreme recent flooding). It assesses flood risk of future urban growth in lieu of sea level rise using the Land Transformation Model, a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) land use prediction tool. Findings show that Houston has currently developed much more urban area within high-risk flood-prone zones compared to Amsterdam. When comparing predicted urban areas under risk, flood-prone future urban areas in Amsterdam are also relatively smaller than Houston. Finally, the increased floodplain when accounting for sea level rise will impact existing and future urban areas in Houston, but do not increase risk significantly in Amsterdam. The results suggest that the protective infrastructure used in the Netherlands has protected its future urban growth from sea level rise more adequately than has Houston.}, }
@article {pmid30809166, year = {2019}, author = {Xiang, P and Zhang, H and Geng, L and Zhou, K and Wu, Y}, title = {Individualist-Collectivist Differences in Climate Change Inaction: The Role of Perceived Intractability.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {187}, pmid = {30809166}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {The willingness to take action against climate change may be shaped by cultural orientations. The present study investigated individualist-collectivist differences in climate change inaction as well as the mediating role of perceived intractability. In Study 1, a survey of 182 undergraduates showed that greater perceived intractability of climate change was significantly related to a lower frequency of climate-friendly actions in the preceding 6 months. In Study 2, participants who were exposed to information concerning the intractability of climate change (experimental group, n = 98) reported a significantly greater perceived intractability of climate change and lower intention to assume a low-carbon lifestyle than those presented with neutral information (control group, n = 83). Based on Studies 1 and 2, participants with collectivist or individualist orientations were recruited from a pool of Chinese undergraduate students in Study 3. We found that participants with a more individualist orientation (n = 62) are more subject to perceived intractability, and less likely to take climate-friendly action than those with a more collectivist orientation (n = 94), and individualist/collectivist status affects climate change inaction through perceived intractability as mediator. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the promotion of public engagement with climate change by mitigating perceived intractability.}, }
@article {pmid30808990, year = {2019}, author = {Hurteau, MD and Liang, S and Westerling, AL and Wiedinmyer, C}, title = {Vegetation-fire feedback reduces projected area burned under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2838}, pmid = {30808990}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate influences vegetation directly and through climate-mediated disturbance processes, such as wildfire. Temperature and area burned are positively associated, conditional on availability of vegetation to burn. Fire is a self-limiting process that is influenced by productivity. Yet, many fire projections assume sufficient vegetation to support fire, with substantial implications for carbon (C) dynamics and emissions. We simulated forest dynamics under projected climate and wildfire for the Sierra Nevada, accounting for climate effects on fuel flammability (static) and climate and prior fire effects on fuel availability and flammability (dynamic). We show that compared to climate effects on flammability alone, accounting for the interaction of prior fires and climate on fuel availability and flammability moderates the projected increase in area burned by 14.3%. This reduces predicted increases in area-weighted median cumulative emissions by 38.3 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2) and 0.6 Tg particulate matter (PM1), or 12.9% and 11.5%, respectively. Our results demonstrate that after correcting for potential over-estimates of the effects of climate-driven increases in area burned, California is likely to continue facing significant wildfire and air quality challenges with on-going climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30807685, year = {2019}, author = {Tulloch, VJD and Plagányi, &#xc9;E and Brown, C and Richardson, AJ and Matear, R}, title = {Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {1263-1281}, pmid = {30807685}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation/ ; DE160101207//Australian Research Council/ ; //Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Australian Research Council/ ; }, abstract = {Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.}, }
@article {pmid30805153, year = {2019}, author = {Furness, EN and Robinson, RA}, title = {Long-term declines in winter body mass of tits throughout Britain and Ireland correlate with climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {1202-1210}, pmid = {30805153}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The optimum body mass of passerine birds typically represents a trade-off between starvation risk, which promotes fat gain, and predation pressure, which promotes fat loss to maintain maneuvrability. Changes in ecological factors that affect either of these variables will therefore change the optimum body masses of populations of passerine birds. This study sought to identify and quantify the effects of changing temperatures and predation pressures on the body masses and wing lengths of populations of passerine birds throughout Britain and Ireland over the last 50 years. We analyzed over 900,000 individual measurements of body mass and wing length of blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus, coal tits Periparus ater, and great tits Parus major collected by licenced bird ringers throughout Britain and Ireland from 1965 to 2017 and correlated these with publicly available temperature data and published, UK-wide data on the abundance of a key predator, the sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus. We found highly significant, long-term, UK-wide decreases in winter body masses of adults and juveniles of all three species. We also found highly significant negative correlations between winter body mass and winter temperature, and between winter body mass and sparrowhawk abundance. Independent of these effects, body mass further correlated negatively with calendar year, suggesting that less well understood dynamic factors, such as supplementary feeding levels, may play a major role in determining population optimum body masses. Wing lengths of these birds also decreased, suggesting a hitherto unobserved large-scale evolutionary adjustment of wing loading to the lower body mass. These findings provide crucial evidence of the ways in which species are adapting to climate change and other anthropogenic factors throughout Britain and Ireland. Such processes are likely to have widespread implications as the equilibria controlling evolutionary optima in species worldwide are upset by rapid, anthropogenic ecological changes.}, }
@article {pmid30805145, year = {2019}, author = {Wang, DB and Wang, XY and Wu, Y and Lin, HL}, title = {Grazing buffers the effect of climate change on the species diversity of seedlings in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {1119-1126}, pmid = {30805145}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change predominated by warming over the past decades has affected plant biodiversity, distribution, and ecosystem functioning in alpine grasslands. Yet, little is known about the interactive effect of climate change and grazing on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Here, we conducted a vegetation translocation experiment (ten soil-vegetation blocks were translocated from high-altitudinal site 3,245 m to low-altitudinal site 3,045 m) combined with grazing treatment in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that (a) translocation induced effect of climate change from harsh, high-altitudinal site to benign, low-altitudinal site significantly promoted species richness, and density of asexual and sexual seedling, with an increase in the proportion of asexual recruitment to sexual recruitment; (b) grazing decreased the proportion of asexual seedling to sexual recruitment within community, led to a shift in the dominant plant functional groups from graminoids and legumes to forbs; and (c) grazing partly offset the increased species richness of seedling, but not seedling density, induced by climate change. These findings suggest that moderate grazing may buffer the effect of climate change on the plant community composition, and thus, functional role in alpine meadows. Further understanding the influence of climate change on grassland ecosystems needs to consider the non-additive effect of grazing and climate change to sustainability of grassland services.}, }
@article {pmid30804855, year = {2019}, author = {Bergquist, M and Nilsson, A and Schultz, PW}, title = {Experiencing a Severe Weather Event Increases Concern About Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {220}, pmid = {30804855}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Climate change is primarily driven by human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and may therefore be mitigated by changes to human behavior (Clayton et al., 2015; IPCC, 2018). Despite efforts to raise awareness and concern about climate change, GHG emissions continue to rise (IPCC, 2018). Climate change seems to be at odds with the immediate, present threats to which humans are adapted to cope (Gifford et al., 2009; Schultz, 2014; van Vugt et al., 2014). In contrast to immediate dangers, climate change is typically abstract, large scale, slow and often unrelated to the welfare of our daily lives (e.g., Ornstein and Ehrlich, 1989; Gifford, 2011). But there are moments when the consequences of climate change are readily apparent, such as extreme weather events. In the current paper, we examine the impact of personal experience with an extreme weather event, and the impact of this experience on beliefs about climate change, and intentions to take actions that can help prepare for and mitigate the consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30804179, year = {2019}, author = {Moore, FC and Obradovich, N and Lehner, F and Baylis, P}, title = {Rapidly declining remarkability of temperature anomalies may obscure public perception of climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {11}, pages = {4905-4910}, pmid = {30804179}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Perception ; Seasons ; Social Media ; *Temperature ; United States ; }, abstract = {The changing global climate is producing increasingly unusual weather relative to preindustrial conditions. In an absolute sense, these changing conditions constitute direct evidence of anthropogenic climate change. However, human evaluation of weather as either normal or abnormal will also be influenced by a range of factors including expectations, memory limitations, and cognitive biases. Here we show that experience of weather in recent years-rather than longer historical periods-determines the climatic baseline against which current weather is evaluated, potentially obscuring public recognition of anthropogenic climate change. We employ variation in decadal trends in temperature at weekly and county resolution over the continental United States, combined with discussion of the weather drawn from over 2 billion social media posts. These data indicate that the remarkability of particular temperatures changes rapidly with repeated exposure. Using sentiment analysis tools, we provide evidence for a "boiling frog" effect: The declining noteworthiness of historically extreme temperatures is not accompanied by a decline in the negative sentiment that they induce, indicating that social normalization of extreme conditions rather than adaptation is driving these results. Using climate model projections we show that, despite large increases in absolute temperature, anomalies relative to our empirically estimated shifting baseline are small and not clearly distinguishable from zero throughout the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid30798364, year = {2019}, author = {Takakura, J and Fujimori, S and Takahashi, K and Hijioka, Y and Honda, Y}, title = {Site-specific hourly resolution wet bulb globe temperature reconstruction from gridded daily resolution climate variables for planning climate change adaptation measures.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {63}, number = {6}, pages = {787-800}, pmid = {30798364}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14)//Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Heat Stress Disorders ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Japan ; *Occupational Exposure ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Changes in the environmental heat stress need to be properly evaluated to manage the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly in the context of climate change. The wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a useful index for evaluating heat stress and anticipating conditions related to heat-related illness in the present climate, but projecting the WBGT with a sufficiently high temporal and spatial resolution remains challenging for future climate conditions. In this study, we developed a methodological framework for estimating the site-specific hourly resolution WBGT based on the output of general circulation models using only simple calculations. The method was applied to six sites in Japan and its performance was evaluated. The proposed method could reproduce the site-specific hourly resolution WBGT with a high accuracy. Based on the developed framework, we constructed future (2090s) projections under two different greenhouse gas emission pathways. These projections showed a consistent rise in the WBGT and thus the capacity to perform physically demanding activities is expected to decrease. To demonstrate the usefulness of the projected WBGT in planning adaptation measures, we identified the optimal working schedules which would minimize outdoor workers' exposure to heat at a specific site. The results show that a substantial shift in the working time is required in the future if outdoor workers are to compensate the effect of increased heat exposure only by changing their working hours. This methodological framework and the projections will provide local practitioners with useful information to manage the increased risk of heat stress under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30797982, year = {2019}, author = {De Marchi, L and Neto, V and Pretti, C and Chiellini, F and Morelli, A and Soares, AMVM and Figueira, E and Freitas, R}, title = {The influence of Climate Change on the fate and behavior of different carbon nanotubes materials and implication to estuarine invertebrates.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Toxicology &amp; pharmacology : CBP}, volume = {219}, number = {}, pages = {103-115}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpc.2019.02.008}, pmid = {30797982}, issn = {1532-0456}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Nanotubes, Carbon/*toxicity ; Oxidative Stress ; Polychaeta/*drug effects ; Thermogravimetry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/chemistry/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {The widespread use of Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) has been increasing exponentially, leading to a significant potential release into the environment. Nevertheless, the toxic effects of CNTs in natural aquatic systems are related to their ability to interact with abiotic compounds. Considering that salinity variations are one of the main challenges in the environment and thus may influence the behavior and toxicity of CNTs, a laboratory experiment was performed exposing the tube-building polychaete Diopatra neapolitana (Delle Chiaje 1841) for 28 days to pristine multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWCNTs) and carboxylated MWCNTs, maintained at control salinity 28 and low salinity 21. An innovative approach based on thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was adopted for the first time to assess the presence of MWCNTs aggregates in the organisms. Both CNTs generated toxic impacts in terms of regenerative capacity, energy reserves and metabolic capacity as well as oxidative and neuro status, however greater toxic impacts were observed in polychaetes exposed to carboxylated MWCNTs. Moreover, both CNTs maintained under control salinity (28) generated higher toxic impacts in the polychaetes compared to individuals maintained under low salinity (21), indicating that exposed polychaetes tend to be more sensitive to the alteration induced by salinity variations on the chemical behavior of both MWCNTs in comparison to salt stress.}, }
@article {pmid30796848, year = {2019}, author = {Hales, S}, title = {Climate change, extreme rainfall events, drinking water and enteric disease.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2019-2001}, pmid = {30796848}, issn = {2191-0308}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Drinking Water/*analysis ; Humans ; Intestinal Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; *Rain ; *Water Quality ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid30796465, year = {2019}, author = {Rahmasary, AN and Robert, S and Chang, IS and Jing, W and Park, J and Bluemling, B and Koop, S and van Leeuwen, K}, title = {Overcoming the Challenges of Water, Waste and Climate Change in Asian Cities.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {520-535}, pmid = {30796465}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {687809//Horizon 2020 Framework Programme/International ; }, mesh = {Asia ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Wastewater ; Water ; }, abstract = {Unprecedented challenges in urban management of water, waste and climate change-amplified by urbanisation and economic growth-are growing in Asia. In this circumstance, cities need to be aware of threats and opportunities to improve their capacity in addressing these challenges. This paper identifies priorities, barriers and enablers of these capacities. Through the City Blueprint[®] Approach-an integrated baseline assessment of the urban water cycle-11 Asian cities are assessed. Three cities are selected for an in-depth governance capacity analysis of their challenges with a focus on floods. Solid waste collection and treatment and access to improved drinking water and sanitation can be considered priorities, especially in cities with considerable slum populations. These people are also disproportionately affected by the impacts of climate-related hazards. The high variation of water management performance among Asian cities shows high potential for city-to-city learning by sharing best practices in water technology and governance. Combining interventions, i.e., by exploring co-benefits with other sectors (e.g., transport and energy) will increase efficiency, improve resilience, and lower the cost. Although governance capacities varied among cities, management of available information, monitoring and evaluation showed to be reoccurring points for improvement. Cities are also expected to increase implementation capacities using better policy, stricter compliance and preparedness next to promoting community involvement. Consequently, the city transformation process can be more concrete, efficient and inclusive.}, }
@article {pmid30796067, year = {2019}, author = {Jacobs, JR}, title = {Pluralistic ignorance and social action on climate change.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {30796067}, issn = {1469-3178}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cultural Diversity ; Group Processes ; Humans ; }, abstract = {A comment on “The Sense of Social Influence: Pluralistic Ignorance in Climate Change” by Esther M Kjeldahl &amp; Vincent F. Hendricks.[Image: see text]}, }
@article {pmid30795849, year = {2019}, author = {Ontoria, Y and Gonzalez-Guedes, E and Sanmartí, N and Bernardeau-Esteller, J and Ruiz, JM and Romero, J and Pérez, M}, title = {Interactive effects of global warming and eutrophication on a fast-growing Mediterranean seagrass.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {145}, number = {}, pages = {27-38}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2019.02.002}, pmid = {30795849}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {*Alismatales ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Eutrophication ; *Global Warming ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems, such as seagrasses, are subjected to local (e.g. eutrophication) and global (e.g. warming) stressors. While the separate effects of warming and eutrophication on seagrasses are relatively well known, their joint effects remain largely unstudied. In order to fill this gap, and using Cymodocea nodosa as a model species, we assessed the joint effects of warming (three temperatures, 20 °C, 30 °C and 35 °C) with two potential outcomes of eutrophication: (i) increase in nutrients concentration in the water column (30 and 300 μM), and (ii) organic enrichment in the sediment). Our results confirm that temperature in isolation clearly affects plant performance; while plants exposed to 30 °C performed better than control plants, plants exposed to 35 °C showed clear symptoms of deterioration (e.g. decline of photosynthetic capacity, increase of incidence of necrotic tissue). Plants were unaffected by high ammonium concentrations; however, organic enrichment of sediment had deleterious effects on plant function (photosynthesis, growth, demographic balance). Interestingly, these negative effects were exacerbated by increased temperature. Our findings indicate that in addition to the possibility of the persistence of C. nodosa being directly jeopardized by temperature increase, the joint effects of warming and eutrophication may further curtail its survival. This should be taken into consideration in both predictions of climate change consequences and in local planning.}, }
@article {pmid30792357, year = {2019}, author = {Jaffe, Y and Bar-Oz, G and Ellenblum, R}, title = {Improving integration in societal consequences to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {11}, pages = {4755-4756}, pmid = {30792357}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Dust ; Middle East ; *Social Change ; }, }
@article {pmid30790756, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, X and Dong, Q and Costa, V and Wang, X}, title = {A hierarchical Bayesian model for decomposing the impacts of human activities and climate change on water resources in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {836-847}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.189}, pmid = {30790756}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Human activities and climate change are two key factors influencing the variation of the total amount of available surface and groundwater, hereafter termed water resources. Quantitatively separating their impacts remains a challenge. To this end, we used time-varying Budyko-type equations and a hierarchical Bayesian model in this paper to separate their impacts in 31 provincial-level divisions of China. The time-varying Budyko-type equations treat the Budyko equation parameter w as a variable, which depends on human activities (represented by per capita gross regional production) and climate change (represented by temperature and precipitation). The hierarchical model quantifies the uncertainty of parameters and the interrelation between covariates across regions in China. The results show that the time-varying Budyko-type equation can improve the fitting capability for water resources in China. The hierarchical Bayesian model, which considered spatial dependence, reduced the uncertainty of the parameters compared to spatially independent counterparts. For most regions of China, human activities reduce water resources while climate change increases them. Southeastern China is the most influenced area, and its water resources decreased approximately 50 mm because of human activities. This study can provide a basis for water resource management under climate change and human activity constraints in China.}, }
@article {pmid30788142, year = {2019}, author = {Bontrager, M and Angert, AL}, title = {Gene flow improves fitness at a range edge under climate change.}, journal = {Evolution letters}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {55-68}, pmid = {30788142}, issn = {2056-3744}, abstract = {Populations at the margins of a species' geographic range are often thought to be poorly adapted to their environment. According to theoretical predictions, gene flow can inhibit these range edge populations if it disrupts adaptation to local conditions. Alternatively, if range edge populations are small or isolated, gene flow can provide beneficial genetic variation and may facilitate adaptation to environmental change. We tested these competing predictions in the annual wildflower Clarkia pulchella using greenhouse crosses to simulate gene flow from sources across the geographic range into two populations at the northern range margin. We planted these between-population hybrids in common gardens at the range edge and evaluated how genetic differentiation and climatic differences between edge populations and gene flow sources affected lifetime fitness. During an anomalously warm study year, gene flow from populations occupying historically warm sites improved fitness at the range edge and plants with one or both parents from warm populations performed best. The effects of the temperature provenance of gene flow sources were most apparent at early life history stages, but precipitation provenance also affected reproduction. We also found benefits of gene flow that were independent of climate: after climate was controlled for, plants with parents from different populations performed better at later lifestages than those with parents from the same population, indicating that gene flow may improve fitness via relieving homozygosity. Further supporting this result, we found that increasing genetic differentiation of parental populations had positive effects on fitness of hybrid seeds. Gene flow from warmer populations, when it occurs, is likely to contribute adaptive genetic variation to populations at the northern range edge as the climate warms. On heterogeneous landscapes, climate of origin may be a better predictor of gene flow effects than geographic proximity.}, }
@article {pmid30786781, year = {2019}, author = {Crews, DE and Kawa, NC and Cohen, JH and Ulmer, GL and Edes, AN}, title = {Climate change, uncertainty and allostatic load.}, journal = {Annals of human biology}, volume = {46}, number = {1}, pages = {3-16}, doi = {10.1080/03014460.2019.1584243}, pmid = {30786781}, issn = {1464-5033}, mesh = {Allostasis/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {CONTEXT: Humans constantly respond to environmental stressors challenging their somatic stability. Allostasis, an evolved neuroendocrine/physiological stressor response system, is our main pathway for doing so. Effective allostasis returns somatic systems to their current optima; over a lifetime of stressor responses, related systems fail, effectiveness declines, and physiological dysregulation (i.e. allostatic load) increases. Global Climate Change (GCC) multiplies environmental stressors on human populations and is likely to increase allostatic load.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: As a population-level stressor, GCC increases risks for multiple stressors, including sociocultural instability and food and water insecurity, while also motivating migration. We predict GCC increases risk for elevated allostatic load. Here, we review pathways by which GCC increases climatic and social stressors contributing to greater stress and allostatic load.<br><br>METHODS: Based upon published sources and primary ethnographic case studies, this review examines how GCC, by multiplying climate-related stressors, likely increases social instability, food and water insecurity, and migration. Thereby, it is proposed that GCC contributes to allostatic load.<br><br>RESULTS: GCC multiplies stressors on local populations. Those experiencing social insecurity related to GCC during growth and development are expected to show the largest influences on their lifetime allostatic load. Similarly, as GCC increases food and water insecurity, it likely will increase allostatic load in those affected and is likely to propel migrants to seek improved living circumstances. These stressors may be continued among their descendants via historical trauma or epigenetic responses.<br><br>CONCLUSION: GCC accentuates effects of environmental and sociocultural stressors on human populations. Those exposed to GCC are likely to show lifelong elevated allostatic load.}, }
@article {pmid30783293, year = {2019}, author = {Muller, M}, title = {Hydropower dams can help mitigate the global warming impact of wetlands.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {566}, number = {7744}, pages = {315-317}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00616-w}, pmid = {30783293}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Carbon Sequestration ; Cattle/metabolism ; Floods/prevention &amp; control ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Lakes/chemistry ; Methane/*analysis/metabolism ; Mozambique ; Power Plants/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Rivers/chemistry ; *Wetlands ; }, }
@article {pmid30780055, year = {2019}, author = {Hasan, MK and Kumar, L}, title = {Comparison between meteorological data and farmer perceptions of climate change and vulnerability in relation to adaptation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {237}, number = {}, pages = {54-62}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.02.028}, pmid = {30780055}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Bangladesh ; Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Humans ; *Meteorology ; }, abstract = {How farmers perceive climate change has an influence on how they adapt to climate change. Climate change perception and vulnerability were assessed based on the household survey information collected from randomly selected 118 farmers of Kalapara subdistrict in Bangladesh. This paper identified the socio-economic covariates of climate change perception and vulnerability in relation to agricultural adaptation. It was also determined whether their perception was consistent with meteorological information. Findings revealed that the farmers had a moderate level of perception of and vulnerability to climate change. An overwhelming majority (98%) of the respondents perceived a warmer summer and 96% of them observed a colder winter compared to the past. Among the farmers, 91% believed that rainfall had increased and 97% thought that the timing of rainfall had changed. The belief of increase in soil salinity and associated loss was prevailing among 98 and 99% of them, respectively. Observed climate data were mostly aligned with the farmers' perception with respect to temperature, rainfall, floods, droughts and salinity. Positive correlations were found among the perception of climate change, the perception of vulnerability and the number of adopted adaptation practices. Farmers' level of understanding of climate change, vulnerability and adaptation practices could be improved by involving them in different organizations, such as climate field school and farmer associations. It could accelerate the dissemination of agricultural adaptation practices among them to cope with adverse agricultural impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30779747, year = {2019}, author = {Ross, LC and Speed, JDM and Øien, DI and Grygoruk, M and Hassel, K and Lyngstad, A and Moen, A}, title = {Can mowing restore boreal rich-fen vegetation in the face of climate change?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {e0211272}, pmid = {30779747}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Bryophyta/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Groundwater/chemistry ; Linear Models ; Norway ; Temperature ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Low-frequency mowing has been proposed to be an effective strategy for the restoration and management of boreal fens after abandonment of traditional haymaking. This study investigates how mowing affects long-term vegetation change in both oceanic and continental boreal rich-fen vegetation. This will allow evaluation of the effectiveness of mowing as a management and restoration tool in this ecosystem in the face of climate change. At two nature reserves in Central Norway (Tågdalen, 63° 03' N, 9° 05 E, oceanic climate and Sølendet, 62° 40' N, 11° 50' E, continental climate), we used permanent plot data from the two sites to compare plant species composition from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with that recorded in 2012-2015 in abandoned and mown fens. Changes in species composition and frequency were analysed by multivariate and univariate methods in relation to environmental variables and modelled climate and groundwater data. Mowing resulted in a decline in shrub and Molinia caerulea cover at the continental and oceanic sites respectively, and the total cover of specialist fen species had increased to a significantly greater extent in the mown plots than the unmown at the continental site. However, mowing did not have an effect on the cover of specialist bryophyte species, and some specialist species declined regardless of mowing treatment. Temperature sums had increased at both sites, but precipitation had not changed significantly. Mowing was shown to be the most important determinant of plant community composition at both sites, with local environmental conditions being of secondary importance. In conclusion, the abandonment of traditional management practices results in the loss of characteristic fen species. In order to encourage the restoration of typical rich-fen vegetation, particularly in oceanic areas, additional management measures, such as more intensive mowing, may be required.}, }
@article {pmid30779307, year = {2019}, author = {Santana, PA and Kumar, L and Da Silva, RS and Pereira, JL and Picanço, MC}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on the worldwide distribution of Dalbulus maidis (DeLong) using MaxEnt.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {75}, number = {10}, pages = {2706-2715}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5379}, pmid = {30779307}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {//School of Environmental and Rural Science of the University of New England (UNE)/ ; //Minas Gerais State Foundation for Research Aid (Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais&#xa0;-&#xa0;FAPEMIG)/ ; //Coordena&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Aperfei&#xe7;oamento de Pessoal de N&#xed;vel Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001/ ; //National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient&#xed;fico e Tecnol&#xf3;gico&#xa0;-&#xa0;CNPq)/ ; }, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Hemiptera/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Dispersal ; Zea mays/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: For the first time, a model was applied at the global scale to investigate the effects of climate change on Dalbulus maidis. D. maidis is the main vector of three plant pathogens of maize crops and has been reported as one of the most important maize pests in Latin America. We modelled the effects of climate change on this pest using three Global Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using MaxEnt software.<br><br>RESULTS: Overall, climate change will lead to a decrease in suitable areas for D. maidis. In South America, climate change will decrease the areas suitable for the pest, especially in Brazil. However, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela will have small areas that are highly suitable for the corn leafhopper. Outside the pest's range, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and South Africa also should be concerned about the risk of corn leafhopper invasions in the future because they are projected to have conditions that are highly suitable for this insect in some areas.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study allows the relevant countries to increase their quarantine measures and guide researchers to develop new Zea mays varieties that are resistant or tolerant to D. maidis. In addition, the maize-stunting pathogens for the areas are highlighted in this modelling. &#xa9; 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid30778124, year = {2019}, author = {Kosanic, A and Kavcic, I and van Kleunen, M and Harrison, S}, title = {Climate change and climate change velocity analysis across Germany.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2196}, pmid = {30778124}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Although there are great concerns to what extent current and future climate change impacts biodiversity across different spatial and temporal scales, we still lack a clear information on different climate change metrics across fine spatial scales. Here we present an analysis of climate change and climate change velocity at a local scale (1 × 1 km) across Germany. We focus on seasonal climate variability and velocity and investigate changes in three time periods (1901-2015, 1901-1950 and 1951-2015) using a novel statistical approach. Our results on climate variability showed the highest trends for the 1951-2015 time period. The strongest (positive/negative) and spatially the most dispersed trends were found for Summer maximum temperature and Summer minimum temperatures. For precipitation the strongest positive trends were most pronounced in the summer (1951-2015) and winter (1901-2015). Results for climate change velocity showed that almost 90% of temperature velocities were in the range of 0.5 to 3 km/year, whereas all climate velocities for precipitation were within the range of -3.5 to 4.5 km/year. The key results amplify the need for more local and regional scale studies to better understand species individualistic responses to recent climate change and allow for more accurate future projections and conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid30776634, year = {2019}, author = {Ren, S and Qin, Q and Ren, H}, title = {Contrasting wheat phenological responses to climate change in global scale.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {620-631}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.394}, pmid = {30776634}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; India ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Seasons ; Triticum/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Comprehensive analysis of how wheat phenology responds to environmental factors in global scale is helpful for tackling the possible adverse effects of ongoing climate change on wheat production. In this study, six phenological parameters of global wheat, i.e., the growing season start (SGS), peak (PGS), end (EGS), length (LGS), as well as the vegetative period length (LVP) and reproductive period length (LRP), were retrieved from remote sensing data (1981-2014) by threshold-, logistic-, and shape-based methods. And then, we analyzed the effects of temperature, precipitation, short-wave (SW) radiation, and frost on spatiotemporal patterns of wheat phenology. In addition, haze impacts on wheat phenology were investigated in China and India where haze weather appears frequently in winter-spring seasons. Results showed that the occurrence time of SGS/PGS/EGS is gradually advanced from the pole to the equator and annual mean air temperature can explain >70% of their spatial variations. A dominant advanced SGS/PGS/EGS and a shortened LGS/LVP/LRP were detected in the study region due to the significant increase in temperature and SW radiation, as well as the decrease in frost days. Interannual fluctuations of SGS/PGS/EGS are primarily controlled by air temperature, while precipitation and frost only exerted some obvious impacts in some locations. Higher preseason temperature would induce an earlier wheat phenology and a shorter growing season, while adequate precipitation and frequent frost in preseason could delay the occurrence timing of wheat phenology and lead to a longer growing season. Besides, the decreased temperature resulted from severe haze weather may have partly counteracted the global-warming-induced advancing trend of wheat phenology in China, but further advanced the occurrence timing of wheat phenology through prompting vernalization in India. Overall, though wheat growth is largely constrained by human management, we still highlight the strong impacts of global climate change on wheat phenology.}, }
@article {pmid30774719, year = {2019}, author = {Jorgenson, AK and Fiske, S and Hubacek, K and Li, J and McGovern, T and Rick, T and Schor, JB and Solecki, W and York, R and Zycherman, A}, title = {Social science perspectives on drivers of and responses to global climate change.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {e554}, pmid = {30774719}, issn = {1757-7780}, abstract = {This article provides a review of recent anthropological, archeological, geographical, and sociological research on anthropogenic drivers of climate change, with a particular focus on drivers of carbon emissions, mitigation and adaptation. The four disciplines emphasize cultural, economic, geographic, historical, political, and social-structural factors to be important drivers of and responses to climate change. Each of these disciplines has unique perspectives and makes noteworthy contributions to our shared understanding of anthropogenic drivers, but they also complement one another and contribute to integrated, multidisciplinary frameworks. The article begins with discussions of research on temporal dimensions of human drivers of carbon emissions, highlighting interactions between long-term and near-term drivers. Next, descriptions of the disciplines' contributions to the understanding of mitigation and adaptation are provided. It concludes with a summary of key lessons offered by the four disciplines as well as suggestions for future research. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics and Climate Change.}, }
@article {pmid30772557, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, S and Zhang, J and Yue, T and Jing, X}, title = {Impacts of climate change on urban rainwater harvesting systems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {262-274}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.135}, pmid = {30772557}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is promoted in many cities (e.g., Beijing and Shenzhen) as a climate change adaptation measure to relieve urban water supply and drainage pressures. In this study, the impacts of future climate change on water saving and stormwater capture performances of RWH systems at cities across four climatic zones of China are investigated. A downscaling technique based on the Climate Generator is evaluated and employed to generate future (2020-2050) daily rainfall data. Performance indices of RWH systems (i.e., water saving efficiency, reliability, and stormwater capture efficiency) calculated using both the future and historical (1985-2015) daily rainfall data are compared. Two water demand scenarios (i.e., lawn irrigation and toilet flushing) are included in the investigation. The water saving performance is positively affected by the increases in future rainfall at the four cities, while the stormwater capture performance is negatively affected as a larger tank size is required to achieve a desired stormwater capture efficiency in the future period. The responses of water saving and stormwater capture performances of RWH systems to climate change are varying with not only the system dimensions (i.e., storage capacity and catchment area), but also the water demand scenarios and locations. RWH systems with larger storage capacity for larger water demand scenarios at humid and semi-humid cities is expected to be more resilient to climate change. The various changing patterns of the performance indices highlight the importance of incorporating climate change in the design of RWH systems. Location-specific adaptive adjustments (e.g., adjusting tank sizes, catchment areas or water demand rates) need to be adopted so that RWH systems can sustainably meet water saving and stormwater control requirements under future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30771627, year = {2019}, author = {Perera, F and Ashrafi, A and Kinney, P and Mills, D}, title = {Towards a fuller assessment of benefits to children's health of reducing air pollution and mitigating climate change due to fossil fuel combustion.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {172}, number = {}, pages = {55-72}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.12.016}, pmid = {30771627}, issn = {1096-0953}, support = {P01 ES009600/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; *Child Health/standards ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/prevention &amp; control ; Female ; *Fossil Fuels/adverse effects ; Humans ; Pregnancy ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Fossil fuel combustion by-products, including particulate matter (PM2.5), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), are a significant threat to children's health and equality. Various policies to reduce emissions have been implemented to reduce air pollution and mitigate climate change, with sizeable estimated health and economic benefits. However, only a few adverse outcomes in children have been considered, resulting in an undercounting of the benefits to this vulnerable population.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to expand the suite of child health outcomes addressed by programs to assess health and economic benefits, such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), by identifying concentration-response (C-R) functions for six outcomes related to PM2.5, NO2, PAH, and/or PM10: preterm birth (PTB), low birthweight (LBW), autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, IQ reduction, and the development of childhood asthma.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of the literature published between January 1, 2000 and April 30, 2018 to identify relevant peer-reviewed case-control and cohort studies and meta-analyses. In some cases meta-analyses were available that provided reliable C-R functions and we assessed their consistency with subsequent studies. Otherwise, we reviewed all eligible studies published between our search dates.<br><br>RESULTS: For each pollutant and health outcome, we present the characteristics of each selected study. We distinguish between C-R functions for endpoints having a causal or likely relationship (PTB, LBW, autism, asthma development) with the pollutants for incorporation into primary analyses and endpoints having a suggestive causal relationship with the pollutants (IQ reduction, ADHD) for secondary analyses.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We have identified C-R functions for a number of adverse health outcomes in children associated with air pollutants largely from fossil fuel combustion. Their incorporation into expanded assessments of health benefits of clean air and climate mitigation policies will provide an important incentive for preventive action.}, }
@article {pmid30765124, year = {2019}, author = {Mendenhall, E and Singer, M}, title = {The global syndemic of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10173}, pages = {741}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30310-1}, pmid = {30765124}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Food Supply ; Humans ; *Malnutrition ; Obesity ; Syndemic ; }, }
@article {pmid30763854, year = {2019}, author = {Gao, C and Liu, L and Ma, D and He, K and Xu, YP}, title = {Assessing responses of hydrological processes to climate change over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau based on resampling of future climate scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {737-752}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.013}, pmid = {30763854}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {With global warming, hydrological regimes in the headwater basins of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have significantly changed. Investigating the responses of hydrological processes to climate change in TP has become more and more important to make robust strategies for water resources management. However, using just a few GCMs may constrain the uncertainty in assessment of climate impacts. Therefore, a framework is proposed in this study to generate ensemble climate change scenarios and then investigate changes of hydrological processes under climate change in the upper reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River basin (UYZR) and Lancang River basin (ULR). Firstly, the Latin Hypercube Simulation (LHS) is used to generate an ensemble of future climate change scenarios by resampling change factors of meteorological variables from 18 GCMs under emission scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The inherent dependence structures of change factors, i.e. the correlations of change factors among 12 months for different meteorological variables, are also considered in ensembles. Secondly, the HBV hydrological model coupled with a degree-day snowmelt model is applied to explore the potential change of runoff in the future period 2041-2070. Results show that: 1) the resampling method is effective and can provide a wide ensemble of climate change scenarios. 2) Precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the UYZR and ULR basins are expected to increase under the two scenarios, particularly under RCP8.5. 3) The total runoff also shows a moderately upward trend in two basins, both mainly due to increased precipitation. In the UYZR basin, fast runoff accounts for a larger proportion in total runoff than slow runoff, while in ULR, both almost play the same role in total runoff. Furthermore, snowmelt-induced runoff in both basins would be less and rainfall-induced runoff will probably become more important in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30761418, year = {2020}, author = {Zhou, Y and Jiang, J and Ye, B and Zhang, Y and Yan, J}, title = {Addressing climate change through a market mechanism: a comparative study of the pilot emission trading schemes in China.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {745-767}, pmid = {30761418}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {71803074//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71603110//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71771130//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 201506340061//China Scholarship Council/ ; G01296001//Southern University of Science and Technology/ ; 2017B030301012//Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil and Groundwater Pollution Control/ ; }, mesh = {Carbon/*economics ; China ; *Climate Change ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Environmental Policy/*economics ; Greenhouse Gases/*economics ; Pilot Projects ; Retrospective Studies ; }, abstract = {The questions of how to mitigate climate change and its impact on human health are currently high on the Chinese agenda for future development. The emission trading scheme (ETS) has become one of China's most important instruments to address climate change through a market mechanism. In the wake of the evolution from regional pilots to a nationwide scheme, it is inevitable to be confronted with tremendous political-economic-institutional challenges. To facilitate a smooth start-up of the upcoming nationwide ETS, this study provides a systematic overview of seven ETS pilots, involving the detailed comparison of ETS design and the in-depth evaluation of market performance, both internal and external performance, based on trading data. Then, the achievements and deficiencies of seven ETS pilots are summarized, several challenges for the current time are discussed, and policy proposals for China's national-level ETS are navigated further coupled with international experience. This study finds that China's ETS pilots, from the short-term perspective, are successful, especially in the reinforcement of China's capacity to develop a market-based scheme in an economy that still cherishes many non-market endowments. However, deficiencies lie in both the internal and external market performance, such as the carbon price lacking a signal function, insufficient incentives for compliance, too low market liquidity, and much too high market fragmentation. Moreover, the retrospective examination of China's ETS pilots suggests that a nationwide ETS should at least be based on an extension of the cap duration from single year to several years, uniform rules on monitoring/reporting/verification and allowance allocation, and the improvement of institutional foundation.}, }
@article {pmid30760830, year = {2019}, author = {Watanabe, TK and Watanabe, T and Yamazaki, A and Pfeiffer, M and Claereboudt, MR}, title = {Oman coral δ[18]O seawater record suggests that Western Indian Ocean upwelling uncouples from the Indian Ocean Dipole during the global-warming hiatus.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1887}, pmid = {30760830}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*chemistry/metabolism ; Calcium/chemistry ; *Global Warming ; Indian Ocean ; Oxygen Isotopes/chemistry ; Seasons ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Strontium/chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an interannual mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean that has intensified with 20[th] century global-warming. However, instrumental data shows a global-warming hiatus between the late-1990s and 2015. It is presently not clear how the global-warming hiatus affects modes of climate variability such as the IOD, and their basin-wide ocean-atmosphere teleconnections. Here, we present a 26-year long, biweekly record of Sr/Ca and δ[18]O from a Porites coral drilled in the Gulf of Oman. Sea surface temperature (SSTanom) is calculated from Sr/Ca ratios, and seawater δ[18]O (δ[18]Osw-anom) is estimated by subtracting the temperature component from coral δ[18]O. Our δ[18]Osw-anom record reveals a significant regime shift in 1999, towards lower mean δ[18]Osw values, reflecting intensified upwelling in the western Indian Ocean. Prior to the 1999 regime shift, our SSTanom and δ[18]Osw-anom show a clear IOD signature, with higher values in the summer of positive-IOD years due to weakened upwelling. The IOD signature in SSTanom and δ[18]Osw-anom disappears with the overall intensification of upwelling after the 1999 regime shift. The inferred increase in upwelling is likely driven by an intensified Walker circulation during the global-warming hiatus. Upwelling in the Western Indian Ocean uncouples from the IOD.}, }
@article {pmid30760801, year = {2019}, author = {Nakabayashi, A and Yamakita, T and Nakamura, T and Aizawa, H and Kitano, YF and Iguchi, A and Yamano, H and Nagai, S and Agostini, S and Teshima, KM and Yasuda, N}, title = {The potential role of temperate Japanese regions as refugia for the coral Acropora hyacinthus in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1892}, pmid = {30760801}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Variation ; Genotype ; Japan ; Refugium ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {As corals in tropical regions are threatened by increasing water temperatures, poleward range expansion of reef-building corals has been observed, and temperate regions are expected to serve as refugia in the face of climate change. To elucidate the important indicators of the sustainability of coral populations, we examined the genetic diversity and connectivity of the common reef-building coral Acropora hyacinthus along the Kuroshio Current, including recently expanded (<50 years) populations. Among the three cryptic lineages found, only one was distributed in temperate regions, which could indicate the presence of Kuroshio-associated larval dispersal barriers between temperate and subtropical regions, as shown by oceanographic simulations as well as differences in environmental factors. The level of genetic diversity gradually decreased towards the edge of the species distribution. This study provides an example of the reduced genetic diversity in recently expanded marginal populations, thus indicating the possible vulnerability of these populations to environmental changes. This finding underpins the importance of assessing the genetic diversity of newly colonized populations associated with climate change for conservation purposes. In addition, this study highlights the importance of pre-existing temperate regions as coral refugia, which has been rather underappreciated in local coastal management.}, }
@article {pmid30759571, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, T and Bao, A and Jiapaer, G and Guo, H and Zheng, G and Jiang, L and Chang, C and Tuerhanjiang, L}, title = {Disentangling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on arid and semiarid grasslands in Central Asia during 1982-2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {653}, number = {}, pages = {1311-1325}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.058}, pmid = {30759571}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; Linear Models ; Rain ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, climate change and human activities have severely affected grasslands in Central Asia. Grassland regulation and sustainability in this region require an accurate assessment of the effects of these two factors on grasslands. Based on the abrupt change analysis, linear regression analysis and net primary productivity (NPP), the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland ecosystems in Central Asia during 1982-2015 were studied. Further, the potential NPP (NPPP) was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model and the human-induced NPP (NPPH), which was the difference between NPPP and actual NPP, were used to differentiate the effects of climate change and human activities on the grassland ecosystems, respectively. The grassland NPP showed a slight upward trend during 1982-2015, while two obvious decreasing periods were found before and after the mutation year 1999. Additionally, the main driving forces of the grassland NPP variation for the two periods were different. During 1982-1999, climate change was the main factor controlling grassland NPP increase or decrease, and 84.7% of grasslands experienced NPP reduction, while the regions experiencing an increase represented only 15.3% of the total area. During 1999-2015, the areas of increasing and decreasing grassland NPP represented 41.6% and 58.4% of the total area, respectively. After 1999, human activities became the main driving force of the NPP reduction, whereas climate change facilitated grassland restoration. The five Central Asian countries showed widely divergent relative impacts of climate change and human activities on NPP changes. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, anthropogenic decreases in grassland NPP intensified during 1982-2015, while the negative anthropogenic effects on grassland NPP in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan moderated. Further analysis identified precipitation as the major climatic factor affecting grassland variation in most areas of Central Asia and overgrazing as the main form of human activity accelerating grassland degradation. This study improves the understanding of the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on grasslands in Central Asia.}, }
@article {pmid30759551, year = {2019}, author = {Flores, JM and Gil-Lebrero, S and Gámiz, V and Rodríguez, MI and Ortiz, MA and Quiles, FJ}, title = {Effect of the climate change on honey bee colonies in a temperate Mediterranean zone assessed through remote hive weight monitoring system in conjunction with exhaustive colonies assessment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {653}, number = {}, pages = {1111-1119}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.004}, pmid = {30759551}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees/*physiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Colony Collapse ; Mediterranean Region ; *Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Honey bee plays the leading role in the pollination of many wild plants and crops, but it currently faces serious threats. Climate change is pointed out as one of the causes of the colony collapse disorder. Understanding the response of bees to the new climate change scenario is essential to face this challenge. Especially in the most sensitive bioclimatic zones, such as the Mediterranean areas. In this work, we remotely monitored the weight of the hives with an electronic device during a flowering period in the beekeeping seasons of 2016 and 2017, marked by extreme episodes of drought and high temperatures. We assessed bee colonies at the beginning, middle and at the end of the flowering as well, considering the adult bee population, bee brood, and pollen and honey reserves. The results showed that the flowering was reduced in three weeks in 2017 in comparison to 2016. In those years weight gain was 7.67 kg and 18.92 kg, respectively. The adverse conditions affected the evolution of the populations of bees and the reserves of honey and pollen in a meaningful way, increasing food stress for bees. It also affected the pollen spectrum and commercial characteristics of honey. Our results provide objective data about the effect of climate change on bees, but it also proved the relevant role of bees in the study of changes in the environment.}, }
@article {pmid30754664, year = {2019}, author = {Ho, HC and Abbas, S and Yang, J and Zhu, R and Wong, MS}, title = {Spatiotemporal Prediction of Increasing Winter Perceived Temperature across a Sub-Tropical City for Sustainable Planning and Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {30754664}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Cities ; *City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Extreme Cold ; Hong Kong ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Seasons ; *Weather ; Wind ; }, abstract = {Climate variability has been documented as being key to influencing human wellbeing across cities as it is linked to mortality and illness due to changes in the perceived weather cycle. Many studies have investigated the impact of summer temperature on human health and have proposed mitigation strategies for summer heat waves. However, sub-tropical cities are still experiencing winter temperature variations. Increasing winter perceived temperature through the decades may soon affect city wellbeing, due to a larger temperature change between normal winter days and extreme cold events, which may cause higher health risk due to lack of adaptation and self-preparedness. Therefore, winter perceived temperature should also be considered and integrated in urban sustainable planning. This study has integrated the increasing winter perceived temperature as a factor for developing spatiotemporal protocols for mitigating the adverse impact of climate change. Land surface temperature (LST) derived from satellite images and building data extracted from aerial photographs were used to simulate the adjusted wind chill equivalent temperature (AWCET) particularly for sub-tropical scenarios between 1990 and 2010 of the Kowloon Peninsula, Hong Kong. Compared with perceived temperature based on the representative station located at the headquarters of the Hong Kong Observatory, the temperature of half the study area in the Kowloon Peninsula has raised by 1.5 °C. The areas with less green space and less public open space in 2010 show higher relative temperatures. Socioeconomically deprived areas (e.g., areas with lower median monthly income) may suffer more from this scenario, but not all types of socioeconomic disparities are associated with poor sustainable planning. Based on our results and the "no-one left behind" guideline from the United Nations, climate change mitigation should be conducted by targeting socioeconomic neighborhoods more than just aging communities.}, }
@article {pmid30745128, year = {2019}, author = {Li, G and Sun, S and Han, J and Yan, J and Liu, W and Wei, Y and Lu, N and Sun, Y}, title = {Corrigendum to "Impacts of Chinese Grain for Green program and climate change on vegetation in the Loess Plateau during 1982-2015" [Sci. Total Environ. 660 (2019) 177-187].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {665}, number = {}, pages = {1190-1191}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.396}, pmid = {30745128}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid30743953, year = {2019}, author = {Ker Rault, PA and Koundouri, P and Akinsete, E and Ludwig, R and Huber-Garcia, V and Tsani, S and Acuna, V and Kalogianni, E and Luttik, J and Kok, K and Skoulikidis, N and Froebrich, J}, title = {Down scaling of climate change scenarii to river basin level: A transdisciplinary methodology applied to Evrotas river basin, Greece.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {1623-1632}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.369}, pmid = {30743953}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Mediterranean region is anticipated to be (or, already is) one of the hot spots for climate change, where freshwater ecosystems are under threat from the effects of multiple stressors. Climate change is impacting natural resources and on the functioning of Ecosystem Services. The challenges about modelling climate change impact on water cycle in general and specifically on socio-economic dynamics of the society leads to an exponential amount of results that restrain interpretation and added value of forecasting at local level. One of the main challenges when dealing with climate change projections is the quantification of uncertainties. Modellers might have limited information or understanding from local river catchment management practices and from other disciplines with relevant insights on socio-economic and environmental complex relationship between biosphere and human based activities. Current General Circulation Models cannot fulfil the requirements of high spatial detail required for water management policy. This article reports an innovative transdisciplinary methodology to down scale Climate Change scenarii to river basin level with a special focus on the development of climate change narrative under SSP5-RCP8.5 combination called Myopic scenario and SSP1-RCP4.5 combination called Sustainable scenario. Local Stakeholder participative workshop in the Evrotas river basin provide perception of expected changes on water demand under to two developed scenario narratives.}, }
@article {pmid30743919, year = {2019}, author = {Grillakis, MG}, title = {Increase in severe and extreme soil moisture droughts for Europe under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {1245-1255}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30743919}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Droughts are among the costliest natural disasters. They affect wide regions and large numbers of people worldwide by tampering with water availability and agricultural production. In this research, soil moisture drought trends are assessed for Europe using the Soil Moisture Index (SMI) estimated on Joint UK Land Environment Simulator simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathways, the RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios. Results show that SMI drought conditions are expected to exacerbate in Europe with substantial differences among regions. Eastern Europe and Mediterranean regions are found to be the most affected. Spatially and temporally contiguous regions that exhibit SMI of Severe and Extreme index categories are identified as distinct drought events and are assessed for their characteristics. It is shown that even under strong emissions mitigation, these events are expected to increase in occurrence (22% to 123%), while their characteristics will become more unfavorable. Results indicate increase in their spatial extend (between 23% and 46%) and their duration (between 16% and 48%) depending on the period and the scenario. Additional analysis was performed for the exceptionally wide-area (over 10[6] km[2]) severe and extreme soil moisture drought events that are expected to drastically increase comparing to the recent past. Projections show that those events are expected to happen between 11 and 28 times more frequently depending on the scenario and the period with a 59% to 246% larger duration. These findings indicate that even applying strong mitigation measures, agricultural drought risk in Europe is expected to become higher than our present experience.}, }
@article {pmid30743841, year = {2018}, author = {Shao, P and He, H and Zhang, X and Xie, H and Bao, X and Liang, C}, title = {Responses of microbial residues to simulated climate change in a semiarid grassland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {1286-1291}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.055}, pmid = {30743841}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Bacteria ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fungi ; *Grassland ; Soil ; *Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Microbial residues play important role in regulating soil carbon (C) turnover and stability, but the responses of microbial residues to climate change are neglected. In this study, a 5-year field experiment that simulated two climate change factors (precipitation and warming) was performed to examine microbial residue changes in a semiarid grassland, with water limitation. Both the contents of total amino sugars (a biomarker of microbial residues) and glucosamine (a biomarker of fungal residues) increased significantly with increased precipitation and decreased under warming, whereas neither increased precipitation nor warming influenced the content of muramic acid (a biomarker of bacterial residues). These findings clarified the role of fungal residues in determining the response of microbial residues to altered water availability and plant productivity induced by increased precipitation and elevated temperature. Interestingly, microbial residues had a much greater response to climate change than total soil C, implying that soil C composition and stability altered prior to soil C storage and simultaneously slowed down the change of soil C pool. Integrating microbial residues into current climate-C models is expected to enable the models to more accurately evaluate soil C responses to climate regimes in semiarid grasslands.}, }
@article {pmid30743113, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, B and Gao, X and Ma, J and Jiao, Z and Xiao, J and Hayat, MA and Wang, H}, title = {Modeling the present and future distribution of arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus under climate change scenarios in Mainland China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {203-214}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.301}, pmid = {30743113}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Aedes/*virology ; Animals ; *Arboviruses ; China ; *Climate Change ; Dengue ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Models, Statistical ; *Mosquito Vectors ; }, abstract = {Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are two important mosquito species which transmit various infectious arbovirus diseases represented mainly by dengue fever. These two species of mosquito have a wide range of distribution and strong transfer capacity. With ongoing global climate change, we are facing an increasing public health threat from the rapid spread of vectors in wider geographical areas. Based on observed occurrence records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and high-resolution environmental layers reflecting climate and land-use conditions, a Maxent niche modeling approach was adopted to model the current and future distribution of both species in Mainland China. Our models provide predictions of suitable habitat shifts under future climate scenarios up to the 2050s. Both species were predicted to expand their niche range to varying degrees under future climate scenarios. Aedes aegypti was modeled to expand its habitat from Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and Hainan to Fujian, Jiangxi and Guizhou. Aedes albopictus was modeled to increase magnitude of distribution within its present range of northern, southwestern and southeastern coastal areas of Mainland China. Area and population exposed to mosquitoes are predicted to increase significantly. Environmental variables that have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes are also revealed by our model. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological studies and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid30743110, year = {2019}, author = {Tal, A}, title = {Letter to the editor regarding Wine et al. (2019): Lake Kinneret and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {175-176}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.371}, pmid = {30743110}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Lakes ; Water Movements ; }, }
@article {pmid30742734, year = {2019}, author = {Vasconcellos, MM and Colli, GR and Weber, JN and Ortiz, EM and Rodrigues, MT and Cannatella, DC}, title = {Isolation by instability: Historical climate change shapes population structure and genomic divergence of treefrogs in the Neotropical Cerrado savanna.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {1748-1764}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15045}, pmid = {30742734}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {1311517//National Science Foundation, Division of Environmental Biology (NSF-DEB)/International ; AID-OAA-A-11-00012//United States Agency for International Development/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Anura/*genetics ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Gene Flow ; *Genetics, Population ; *Grassland ; Models, Genetic ; Phylogeography ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Reproductive Isolation ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Although the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on the diversification of the tropical biota was once dismissed, increasing evidence suggests that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations greatly affected the distribution and population divergence of tropical organisms. Landscape genomic analyses coupled with paleoclimatic distribution models provide a powerful way to understand the consequences of past climate changes on the present-day tropical biota. Using genome-wide SNP data and mitochondrial DNA, combined with projections of the species distribution across the late Quaternary until the present, we evaluate the effect of paleoclimatic shifts on the genetic structure and population differentiation of Hypsiboas lundii, a treefrog endemic to the South American Cerrado savanna. Our results show a recent and strong genetic divergence in H. lundii across the Cerrado landscape, yielding four genetic clusters that do not seem congruent with any current physical barrier to gene flow. Isolation by distance (IBD) explains some of the population differentiation, but we also find strong support for past climate changes promoting range shifts and structuring populations even in the presence of IBD. Post-Pleistocene population persistence in four main areas of historical stable climate in the Cerrado seems to have played a major role establishing the present genetic structure of this treefrog. This pattern is consistent with a model of reduced gene flow in areas with high climatic instability promoting isolation of populations, defined here as "isolation by instability," highlighting the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations structuring populations in tropical savannas.}, }
@article {pmid30742109, year = {2019}, author = {Brun, P and Stamieszkin, K and Visser, AW and Licandro, P and Payne, MR and Kiørboe, T}, title = {Climate change has altered zooplankton-fuelled carbon export in the North Atlantic.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {416-423}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0780-3}, pmid = {30742109}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Biomass ; *Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Copepoda/*metabolism ; Models, Biological ; Zooplankton/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Marine plankton have been conspicuously affected by recent climate change, responding with profound spatial relocations and shifts in the timing of their seasonal occurrence. These changes directly affect the global carbon cycle by altering the transport of organic material from the surface ocean to depth, with consequences that remain poorly understood. We investigated how distributional and abundance changes of copepods, the dominant group of zooplankton, have affected biogenic carbon cycling. We used trait-based, mechanistic models to estimate the magnitude of carbon transported downward through sinking faecal pellets, daily vertical migration and seasonal hibernation at depth. From such estimates for over 200,000 community observations in the northern North Atlantic we found carbon flux increased along the northwestern boundary of the study area and decreased in the open northern North Atlantic during the past 55 years. These changes in export were primarily associated with changes in copepod biomass, driven by shifting distributions of abundant, large-bodied species. Our findings highlight how recent climate change has affected downward carbon transport by altering copepod community structure and demonstrate how carbon fluxes through plankton communities can be mechanistically implemented in next-generation biogeochemical models with size-structured representations of zooplankton communities.}, }
@article {pmid30740614, year = {2019}, author = {Rabaiotti, D and Woodroffe, R}, title = {Coping with climate change: limited behavioral responses to hot weather in a tropical carnivore.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {189}, number = {3}, pages = {587-599}, pmid = {30740614}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {NE/L002485/1//Natural Environment Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Animals ; *Carnivora ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is widely accepted to be one of the greatest threats to species globally. Identifying the species most at risk is, therefore, a conservation priority. Some species have the capacity to adapt to rising temperatures through changing their phenology, behavior, distribution, or physiology, and, therefore, may be more likely to persist under rising temperatures. Recent findings suggest that the African wild dog Lycaon pictus may be impacted by climate change, since reproductive success is consistently lower when pup-rearing coincides with periods of high ambient temperature. We used GPS collars, combined with generalized linear mixed-effects models, to assess wild dogs' potential to adapt to high ambient temperatures through flexible timing of hunting behavior. On days with higher maximum temperatures, wild dogs showed lower daytime activity and greater nocturnal activity, although nocturnal activity did not fully balance the decrease in daytime activity, particularly during the denning period. Increases in nocturnal activity were confined mainly to moonlit nights, and were seldom observed when packs were raising pups. Our findings suggest that nocturnal activity helps this cursorial hunter to cope with high daytime temperatures. However, wild dogs appear not to use this coping strategy when they are raising pups, suggesting that their resource needs may not be fulfilled during the pup-rearing period. Given that moonlight availability-which will not change as the climate changes-constrains wild dogs' nocturnal activity, the species may have insufficient behavioral plasticity to mitigate increasing diurnal temperatures. These findings raise concerns about climate change impacts on this endangered species, and highlight the need for behavior to be considered when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30739851, year = {2019}, author = {Ma, X and Zhao, C and Yan, W and Zhao, X}, title = {Influences of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios on water use efficiency dynamics in the sandy areas of northern China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {664}, number = {}, pages = {161-174}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.402}, pmid = {30739851}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important variable used in hydrometeorology study to reveal the links between carbon-water cycles in sandy ecosystems which are highly sensitive to climate change and can readily reflect the effects of it. In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify the regional impacts of 0.5 °C of additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Using the modified Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and Advection-Aridity (AA) models with global warming values of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above preindustrial levels from Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) datasets, we conducted a new set of climate simulations to assess the effects of climate on WUE (the ratio of net primary productivity (NPP) to actual evapotranspiration (ETa)) in different sandy land types (mobile sandy land, MSL; semimobile/semifixed sandy land, SMSF; and fixed sandy land, FSL) during the period of baseline (1986-2005) and future (2006-2100). The spatiotemporal patterns of ETa, NPP, and WUE mostly showed increasing trends; the value of WUE decreased (6.40%) only in MSL with an additional 0.5 °C of warming. Meteorological and vegetation factors determined the variations in WUE. With warming, only the correlation between precipitation and WUE decreased in the three sandy land types, and the leaf area index (LAI) increased with an additional 0.5 °C of warming. The desertification degree comprehensively reflects the linkages among the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), LAI and WUE. Simulation results indicated the sandy area extent could potential increase by 20 × 10[4] km[2] per decade on average during 2016-2047 and that the increase could be gradual (2.60 × 10[4] km[2] per decade) after 2050 (2050-2100). These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global mean temperature change to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and can help identify the risk of desertification with an additional 0.5 °C of warming.}, }
@article {pmid30739158, year = {2019}, author = {Berman, A}, title = {An overview of heat stress relief with global warming in perspective.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {493-498}, pmid = {30739158}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {not required//none/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle ; Cattle Diseases/*prevention &amp; control ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Heat Stress Disorders/*prevention &amp; control/veterinary ; Housing, Animal ; }, abstract = {Global warming seems more probable, whether as gradual warming or increased frequency of warmer episodes. The productivity of cattle in temperate countries will decline unless counteracting steps are adopted. The probability of pre-emptive breeding for maintaining temperate breed performance coupled with heat stress tolerance is too low to be adopted for counteracting warming. The expected warming will mostly involve temperature increases. These will indirectly affect radiant heat gain in animals owing to reduced radiant heat dissipation from the body by convective heat loss, which results in an increased sensitivity to incoming radiant heat at higher air temperatures. These necessitate an emphasis on increasing convective heat loss by structure design and forced air flow by fans. Convective heat loss diminishes with increasing air temperatures. Evaporative heat loss remains the alternative. Evaporative cooling of the ambient requires partial enclosing of the space surrounding the animals and is limited by the humidity in ambient air. An alternative was developed of coupling forced ventilation with wetting of animal surface. The exchange of ambient air flowing on animal surface makes the evaporation practically independent of air humidity and the loss of heat from animal surface practically independent of the surface to air temperature gradient. The coupling of forced ventilation with wetting combination may be attained in various parts of the dairy farm, the holding area of the milking parlour, the feeding trip and the resting area. Each of these requires differing structural and technological adaptations. Climate and farming systems vary between locations which require specific solutions.}, }
@article {pmid30739151, year = {2019}, author = {Balasubramanyam, V and Wilhelm Stanis, S and Morgan, M and Ojewola, O}, title = {Climate Change Communication in the Midwestern United States: Perceptions of State Park Interpreters.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {5}, pages = {615-628}, pmid = {30739151}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {IIA-1355406//National Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communication ; Ice Cover ; Midwestern United States ; Missouri ; United States ; }, abstract = {Parks and protected areas can be ideal settings for climate change communication since many visitors have an affinity for natural and cultural settings, and an interest in resource protection. However, climate-based education efforts in the Midwestern United States may need a slightly different approach since this region lacks obvious indicators, such as sea level rise and melting glaciers. Interpretation, an informal communication process designed to transmit scientific information to visitors in leisure-based settings, could be a useful strategy for engaging visitors in climate change discussions. Few studies have assessed perceptions of interpreters on this topic, much less, their willingness to communicate such information. To address this issue, a mixed methods approach (surveys, interviews, photovoice) was used to examine interpreters' perceptions of climate change and its impacts in Missouri State Park and Historic Sites. Although nearly 70% of interpreters were either alarmed or concerned about climate change, many of them were unsure about its causation. Interpreters report observing impacts such as flooding, earlier plant blooming, high temperatures, extreme weather, and invasive species, but were uncertain about attributing these impacts to climate change. Interpreters did not believe that visitors would be responsive to climate-based education per se but thought the topic could be addressed in pre-existing programs and activities. Rather than discussing complex science with visitors, interpreters felt more comfortable with conveying the significance of resources at their sites. Implications from this study include acknowledging multiple viewpoints, framing strategic messages, and developing place-based educational materials.}, }
@article {pmid30738263, year = {2019}, author = {Mukul, SA and Alamgir, M and Sohel, MSI and Pert, PL and Herbohn, J and Turton, SM and Khan, MSI and Munim, SA and Reza, AHMA and Laurance, WF}, title = {Combined effects of climate change and sea-level rise project dramatic habitat loss of the globally endangered Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {663}, number = {}, pages = {830-840}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.383}, pmid = {30738263}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Oceans and Seas ; Tigers/*physiology ; Water Movements ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The Sundarbans, in southern coastal Bangladesh, is the world's largest surviving mangrove habitat and the last stronghold of tiger adapted to living in a mangrove ecosystem. Using MaxEnt (maximum entropy modeling), current distribution data, land-use/land cover and bioclimatic variables, we modeled the likely future distribution of the globally endangered Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We used two climatic scenarios (i.e., RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide projections of suitable habitats of Bengal tigers in 2050 and 2070. We also combined projected sea-level rise for the area in our models of future species distributions. Our results suggest that there will be a dramatic decline in suitable Bengal tiger habitats in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Other than various aspects of local climate, sea-level rise is projected to have a substantial negative impact on Bengal tiger habitats in this low-lying area. Our model predicts that due to the combined effect of climate change and sea-level rise, there will be no suitable Bengal tiger habitat remaining in the Sundarbans by 2070. Enhancing terrestrial protected area coverage, regular monitoring, law enforcement, awareness-building among local residents among the key strategies needed to ensure long-term survival and conservation of the Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.}, }
@article {pmid30737721, year = {2019}, author = {Gitea, MA and Gitea, D and Tit, DM and Purza, L and Samuel, AD and Bungău, S and Badea, GE and Aleya, L}, title = {Orchard management under the effects of climate change: implications for apple, plum, and almond growing.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {9908-9915}, pmid = {30737721}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fruit/*growth &amp; development ; Malus ; Prunus domestica ; Prunus dulcis ; Romania ; Seasons ; Trees ; }, abstract = {The authors analyzed certain species and varieties of fruit tree in which applied crop technology is used and also undergoes the effects of climate change. The aim is to extend productive crop varieties, resistant to disease and pests, in order to obtain superior yields. The research was conducted in orchards located in northwestern Romania (on 8.59 ha), intensively cultivated with apple, plum, and almond species. The blooming period of the species and fruit production was studied in 2009, the first year of the farm's commercial production, and then compared to figures from 2016 to see the changes that occurred. Climatic conditions were studied throughout the period of existence of the farm (2002-2016). To determine the influence of the climatic factor on the blooming and production periods, respectively, every year is considered having pre-blooming, blooming, and ripening periods. It was found that climate change influences the annual biological cycle of the trees: the vegetative rest period of the trees shortens, the tree vegetation begins earlier in the spring, and the blooming period is advanced by as much as 10 days compared to normal cultivated varieties. All these factors have direct repercussions on the quantity of production.}, }
@article {pmid30736916, year = {2019}, author = {Fond, G and Masson, M and Lançon, C and Auquier, P and Boyer, L}, title = {[Psychiatry and global warming].}, journal = {L'Encephale}, volume = {45}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.encep.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30736916}, issn = {0013-7006}, mesh = {Cyclonic Storms/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disaster Victims/*psychology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Emigration and Immigration/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Environment ; Exposure to Violence/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Global Warming/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Islands/epidemiology ; Mental Health/trends ; Natural Disasters ; Psychiatry/*trends ; Public Health/*trends ; Risk Factors ; Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/epidemiology/psychology ; }, }
@article {pmid30731410, year = {2019}, author = {Liao, X and Xu, W and Zhang, J and Li, Y and Tian, Y}, title = {Global exposure to rainstorms and the contribution rates of climate change and population change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {663}, number = {}, pages = {644-653}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.290}, pmid = {30731410}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Africa ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; *Floods ; Humans ; Rain ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Quantifying global population exposure to rainstorms is a key component of population risk assessments for rainstorms and induced floods. Based on daily precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP dataset, rainfall from rainstorms is first calculated by a multi-model ensemble method for four periods from 1986 to 2100. Combined with population data from the SSP2 scenario, the global population exposure to rainstorms is then calculated and analyzed. Finally, the contribution rates of climate change effect, population change effect, and joint change effect on exposure change are quantitatively assessed. The results showed that (1) Population exposure to rainstorms shows a linear upward trend from base period to the late 21st century period in most regions, and the mid-21st century period compared with base period has the fastest rate of increase. (2) The spatial patterns of population exposure to rainstorms are very similar for the four periods and the areas with high exposure are mainly distributed in Asia, population exposure of Africa is gradually increasing. The countries with high exposure show little volatility, especially the top eight countries. (3) The change in total exposure is mainly due to population change. Based on the composition of the total exposure change for each country, the number of countries whose climate change effect is greater than that of population change is gradually increasing, and this number reaches more than a quarter of the total when the late 21st century period is compared with the mid-21st century period.}, }
@article {pmid30729375, year = {2019}, author = {Shahvari, N and Khalilian, S and Mosavi, SH and Mortazavi, SA}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on water resources and crop yield: a case study of Varamin plain basin, Iran.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {3}, pages = {134}, pmid = {30729375}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation/*methods ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Iran ; Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/chemistry ; Seasons ; Soil/chemistry ; Temperature ; Water Resources/*supply &amp; distribution ; }, abstract = {This research evaluated climate change impacts on water resources using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) models under representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 6, RCP 8.5). First, drought intensity was calculated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the period 1987-2016. Then, the coefficients of precipitation as well as minimum and maximum temperature changes were simulated as SWAT model inputs. The results revealed that temperature will rise in future periods and the precipitation rate will be changed consequently. Then, changes in runoff during periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 were simulated by introducing downscaled results to SWAT model. The model was calibrated and validated by SWAT calibration and uncertainty procedures (SWAT-CUP). Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients (0.57 and 0.54) and R[2] determination coefficients (0.65 and 0.63) were obtained for calibration and validation periods, respectively. The results showed that runoff will rise in fall and spring while it will drop in winter and summer throughout future periods under all three scenarios. Such seasonal shifts in runoff levels result from climate change consequences in the forms of temperature rise, snowmelt, altered precipitation pattern, etc. Future-period evapotranspiration will rise under all three scenarios with a maximum increase in the period 2070-2100 under RCP 8.5 scenario. Additionally, rainfed crop yields will decline without considerable changes in irrigated and horticultural crop yields.}, }
@article {pmid30728622, year = {2019}, author = {Campbell-Lendrum, D and Prüss-Ustün, A}, title = {Climate change, air pollution and noncommunicable diseases.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {97}, number = {2}, pages = {160-161}, pmid = {30728622}, issn = {1564-0604}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Fossil Fuels/adverse effects ; Global Health ; Greenhouse Gases/adverse effects ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Noncommunicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid30728514, year = {2019}, author = {Nowogrodzki, A}, title = {How climate change might affect tea.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {566}, number = {7742}, pages = {S10-S11}, pmid = {30728514}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Catechin/analogs &amp; derivatives/analysis ; China ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crop Production/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Health ; Humans ; India ; Insecta/physiology ; Nitrogen Fixation ; Plant Transpiration ; *Rain ; Seasons ; *Taste ; Tea/*chemistry/economics/*growth &amp; development/supply &amp; distribution ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid30726279, year = {2019}, author = {Le, PVV and Kumar, P and Ruiz, MO and Mbogo, C and Muturi, EJ}, title = {Predicting the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on malaria in coastal Kenya.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {e0211258}, pmid = {30726279}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Anopheles/*growth &amp; development/parasitology ; Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Kenya/epidemiology ; Life Cycle Stages ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Models, Theoretical ; Mosquito Vectors/growth &amp; development/parasitology ; Stochastic Processes ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study investigates the combined, i.e. direct and indirect, impacts of climate change on the dynamics of malaria through modifications in: (i) the sporogonic cycle of Plasmodium induced by air temperature increase, and (ii) the life cycle of Anopheles vector triggered by changes in natural breeding habitat arising from the altered moisture dynamics resulting from acclimation responses of vegetation under climate change. The study is performed for a rural region in Kilifi county, Kenya.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use a stochastic lattice-based malaria (SLIM) model to make predictions of changes in Anopheles vector abundance, the life cycle of Plasmodium parasites, and thus malaria transmission under projected climate change in the study region. SLIM incorporates a nonlinear temperature-dependence of malaria parasite development to estimate the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium. It is also linked with a spatially distributed eco-hydrologic modeling framework to capture the impacts of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, which served as a key determinant for the formation and persistence of mosquito larval habitats on the land surface. Malaria incidence data collected from 2008 to 2013 is used for SLIM model validation. Projections of climate change and human population for the region are used to run the models for prediction scenarios. Under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) only, modeled results reveal wetter soil moisture in the root zone due to the suppression of transpiration from vegetation acclimation, which increases the abundance of Anopheles vectors and the risk of malaria. When air temperature increases are also considered along with elevated [CO2], the life cycle of Anopheles vector and the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium parasites are shortened nonlinearly. However, the reduction of soil moisture resulting from higher evapotranspiration due to air temperature increase also reduces the larval habitats of the vector. Our findings show the complicated role of vegetation acclimation under elevated [CO2] on malaria dynamics and indicate an indirect but ignored impact of air temperature increase on malaria transmission through reduction in larval habitats and vector density.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Vegetation acclimation triggered by elevated [CO2] under climate change increases the risk of malaria. In addition, air temperature increase under climate change has opposing effects on mosquito larval habitats and the life cycles of both Anopheles vectors and Plasmodium parasites. The indirect impacts of temperature change on soil moisture dynamics are significant and should be weighed together with the direct effects of temperature change on the life cycles of mosquitoes and parasites for future malaria prediction and control.}, }
@article {pmid30726183, year = {2019}, author = {Pan, Y and Opgenhaffen, M and Van Gorp, B}, title = {Negotiating climate change: A frame analysis of COP21 in British, American, and Chinese news media.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {28}, number = {5}, pages = {519-533}, doi = {10.1177/0963662518823969}, pmid = {30726183}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {Climate negotiations have increasingly resonated with global governance and world power relations. However, media studies of climate change have paid relatively less attention to media frames of the problem solving. This study addresses this issue by examining the media coverage of COP21 from three countries that have considerable influence on climate politics: the United Kingdom, the United States, and China. By applying an inductive frame analysis, the study identified 10 media frames embedded in the discussions on climate negotiations. A deductive analysis further assessed the prevalence of these frames. The findings suggest that the frames were significantly influenced by the values of the established and emerging powers in the international policy area. The British and American media upheld the underlying norms that have long underpinned the existing Western-led order, while Chinese media coverage manifested a rising power in need of world recognition.}, }
@article {pmid30721162, year = {2019}, author = {Wellenius, GA and Sheffield, PE}, title = {The US Government Just Published a New Report Detailing the Impacts of Climate Change on Americans: Does it Matter?.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {163-165}, doi = {10.1097/EDE.0000000000000952}, pmid = {30721162}, issn = {1531-5487}, }
@article {pmid30718624, year = {2019}, author = {Liang, P and Wang, X and Sun, H and Fan, Y and Wu, Y and Lin, X and Chang, J}, title = {Forest type and height are important in shaping the altitudinal change of radial growth response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1336}, pmid = {30718624}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Altitude ; Biological Phenomena ; *Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Humans ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Tree radial growth is widely found to respond differently to climate change across altitudinal gradients, but the relative roles of biotic factors (e.g. forest type, height and density) vs. climate gradient remain unclear. We sampled tree rings from 15 plots along a large altitudinal gradient in northeast China, and examined how climate gradient, forest type, height, tree size and density affect: (1) temporal growth variability [mean sensitivity (MS) and standard deviation (SD) of the chronologies], and (2) the relationship of ring width indices (RWI) with historical climate. We used BIC based model selection and variable importance to explore the major drivers of their altitudinal patterns. The results showed that: both growth variability and RWI-climate relationships changed significantly with altitude. Forest height was the most important predictor for altitudinal changes of MS and SD. For RWI-climate relationships, forest type was more important than climate gradient, while height and stem density were weak but necessary predictors. We showed that the altitudinal difference in growth response to climate change cannot be explained by climate gradient alone, and highlight the necessity to examine the influence of biotic factors (which covary with climate across geographic gradient) to better understand forest response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30718491, year = {2019}, author = {Dutkiewicz, S and Hickman, AE and Jahn, O and Henson, S and Beaulieu, C and Monier, E}, title = {Ocean colour signature of climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {578}, pmid = {30718491}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Monitoring changes in marine phytoplankton is important as they form the foundation of the marine food web and are crucial in the carbon cycle. Often Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is used to track changes in phytoplankton, since there are global, regular satellite-derived estimates. However, satellite sensors do not measure Chl-a directly. Instead, Chl-a is estimated from remote sensing reflectance (RRS): the ratio of upwelling radiance to the downwelling irradiance at the ocean's surface. Using a model, we show that RRS in the blue-green spectrum is likely to have a stronger and earlier climate-change-driven signal than Chl-a. This is because RRS has lower natural variability and integrates not only changes to in-water Chl-a, but also alterations in other optically important constituents. Phytoplankton community structure, which strongly affects ocean optics, is likely to show one of the clearest and most rapid signatures of changes to the base of the marine ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid30713361, year = {2018}, author = {Levy, G and Vignudelli, S and Gower, J}, title = {Enabling earth observations in support of global, coastal, ocean, and climate change research and monitoring.}, journal = {International journal of remote sensing}, volume = {39}, number = {13}, pages = {4287-4292}, pmid = {30713361}, issn = {0143-1161}, support = {NNX16AP70G//NASA/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30712279, year = {2019}, author = {Frauendorf, TC and MacKenzie, RA and Tingley, RW and Frazier, AG and Riney, MH and El-Sabaawi, RW}, title = {Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal resolution sampling regimes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {1344-1357}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14584}, pmid = {30712279}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//USDA Pacific Southwest Research Station/ ; //USDA Washington Office/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space-for-time substitutions have been successful at predicting effects of climate change in terrestrial systems by using a spatial gradient to mimic the projected temporal change. However, concerns have been raised that the spatial variability in these models might not reflect the temporal variability. We utilized a well-constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine (a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and (b) if using a high temporal (monthly, four streams) or a high spatial (annual, eight streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space-for-time substitution. Declines in benthic and suspended resource quantity (10- to 40-fold) and quality (shift from macrophyte to leaf litter dominated) contributed to 35-fold decreases in macroinvertebrate biomass with predicted changes in the magnitude and variability in the flow. Invertebrate composition switched from caddisflies and damselflies to taxa with faster turnover rates (mosquitoes, copepods). Changes in resource and consumer composition patterns were stronger with high temporal resolution sampling. However, trends and ranges of results did not differ between the two sampling regimes, indicating that a suitable, well-constrained spatial gradient is an appropriate tool for examining temporal change. Our study is the first to investigate resource to community wide effects of climate change on tropical streams on a spatial and temporal scale. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources.}, }
@article {pmid30709074, year = {2019}, author = {Salas, RN}, title = {Climate Change: A Review of a Public Health Opportunity for the Northeast.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {102}, number = {1}, pages = {42-45}, pmid = {30709074}, issn = {2327-2228}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Greenhouse Effect/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; North America ; Policy Making ; *Public Health ; Public Health Surveillance ; }, abstract = {[Full article available at http://rimed.org/rimedicaljournal-2019-02.asp].}, }
@article {pmid30706600, year = {2019}, author = {Díaz, FP and Latorre, C and Carrasco-Puga, G and Wood, JR and Wilmshurst, JM and Soto, DC and Cole, TL and Gutiérrez, RA}, title = {Multiscale climate change impacts on plant diversity in the Atacama Desert.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {5}, pages = {1733-1745}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14583}, pmid = {30706600}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Chile ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Ancient/analysis ; *Desert Climate ; Ecosystem ; Fossils ; Plant Dispersal ; *Plants/classification/genetics ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Comprehending ecological dynamics requires not only knowledge of modern communities but also detailed reconstructions of ecosystem history. Ancient DNA (aDNA) metabarcoding allows biodiversity responses to major climatic change to be explored at different spatial and temporal scales. We extracted aDNA preserved in fossil rodent middens to reconstruct late Quaternary vegetation dynamics in the hyperarid Atacama Desert. By comparing our paleo-informed millennial record with contemporary observations of interannual variations in diversity, we show local plant communities behave differentially at different timescales. In the interannual (years to decades) time frame, only annual herbaceous expand and contract their distributional ranges (emerging from persistent seed banks) in response to precipitation, whereas perennials distribution appears to be extraordinarily resilient. In contrast, at longer timescales (thousands of years) many perennial species were displaced up to 1,000 m downslope during pluvial events. Given ongoing and future natural and anthropogenically induced climate change, our results not only provide baselines for vegetation in the Atacama Desert, but also help to inform how these and other high mountain plant communities may respond to fluctuations of climate in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30705325, year = {2019}, author = {Amélineau, F and Grémillet, D and Harding, AMA and Walkusz, W and Choquet, R and Fort, J}, title = {Arctic climate change and pollution impact little auk foraging and fitness across a decade.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1014}, pmid = {30705325}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Ongoing global changes apply drastic environmental forcing onto Arctic marine ecosystems, particularly through ocean warming, sea-ice shrinkage and enhanced pollution. To test impacts on arctic marine ecological functioning, we used a 12-year integrative study of little auks (Alle alle), the most abundant seabird in the Atlantic Arctic. We monitored the foraging ecology, reproduction, survival and body condition of breeding birds, and we tested linkages between these biological variables and a set of environmental parameters including sea-ice concentration (SIC) and mercury contamination. Little auks showed substantial plasticity in response to SIC, with deeper and longer dives but less time spent underwater and more time flying when SIC decreased. Their diet also contained less lipid-rich ice-associated prey when SIC decreased. Further, in contrast to former studies conducted at the annual scale, little auk fitness proxies were impacted by environmental changes: Adult body condition and chick growth rate were negatively linked to SIC and mercury contamination. However, no trend was found for adult survival despite high inter-annual variability. Our results suggest that potential benefits of milder climatic conditions in East Greenland may be offset by increasing pollution in the Arctic. Overall, our study stresses the importance of long-term studies integrating ecology and ecotoxicology.}, }
@article {pmid30704089, year = {2019}, author = {Raza, A and Razzaq, A and Mehmood, SS and Zou, X and Zhang, X and Lv, Y and Xu, J}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Crops Adaptation and Strategies to Tackle Its Outcome: A Review.}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {30704089}, issn = {2223-7747}, support = {2017YFD0101701//National Basic Research Program of China (2017YFD0101701) and Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program of CAAS./ ; }, abstract = {Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses, which have adverse effects on the agriculture of a region. The land and its agriculture are being affected by climate changes in different ways, e.g., variations in annual rainfall, average temperature, heat waves, modifications in weeds, pests or microbes, global change of atmospheric CO2 or ozone level, and fluctuations in sea level. The threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. According to some predicted reports, agriculture is considered the most endangered activity adversely affected by climate changes. To date, food security and ecosystem resilience are the most concerning subjects worldwide. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation, before it might affect global crop production drastically. In this review paper, we summarize the causes of climate change, stresses produced due to climate change, impacts on crops, modern breeding technologies, and biotechnological strategies to cope with climate change, in order to develop climate resilient crops. Revolutions in genetic engineering techniques can also aid in overcoming food security issues against extreme environmental conditions, by producing transgenic plants.}, }
@article {pmid30703725, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmadalipour, A and Moradkhani, H and Castelletti, A and Magliocca, N}, title = {Future drought risk in Africa: Integrating vulnerability, climate change, and population growth.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {662}, number = {}, pages = {672-686}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.278}, pmid = {30703725}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Drought risk refers to the potential losses from hazard imposed by a drought event, and it is generally characterized as a function of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure. In this study, drought risk is assessed at a national level across Africa, and the impacts of climate change, population growth, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities on drought risk are investigated. A rigorous framework is implemented to quantify drought vulnerability considering various sectors including economy, energy and infrastructure, health, land use, society, and water resources. Multi-model and multi-scenario analyses are employed to quantify drought hazard using an ensemble of 10 regional climate models and a multi-scalar drought index. Drought risk is then assessed in each country for 2 climate emission pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), 3 population scenarios, and 3 vulnerability scenarios during three future periods between 2010 and 2100. Drought risk ratio is quantified, and the role of each component (i.e. hazard, vulnerability, and exposure) is identified, and the associated uncertainties are also characterized. Results show that drought risk is expected to increase in future across Africa with varied rates for different models and scenarios. Although northern African countries indicate aggravating drought hazard, drought risk ratio is found to be highest in central African countries as a consequent of vulnerability and population rise in that region. Results indicate that if no climate change adaptation is implemented, unprecedented drought hazard and risk will occur decades earlier. In addition, controlling population growth is found to be imperative for mitigating drought risk in Africa (even more effective than climate change mitigation), as it improves socioeconomic vulnerability and reduces potential exposure to drought.}, }
@article {pmid30701216, year = {2018}, author = {Ganne-Carrié, N}, title = {Alcohol-related liver disease: do weather and daylight level matter or is there a paradoxical good side of global warming?.}, journal = {Translational gastroenterology and hepatology}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {109}, pmid = {30701216}, issn = {2415-1289}, }
@article {pmid30700855, year = {2019}, author = {Soultan, A and Wikelski, M and Safi, K}, title = {Risk of biodiversity collapse under climate change in the Afro-Arabian region.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {955}, pmid = {30700855}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Africa ; Animals ; Arabia ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; Mammals/physiology ; *Risk ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {For 107 endemic mammal species in the Afro-Arabian region, Sahara-Sahel and Arabian Desert, we used ensemble species distribution models to: (1) identify the hotspot areas for conservation, (2) assess the potential impact of the projected climate change on the distribution of the focal species, and (3) assign IUCN threat categories for the focal species according to the predicted changes in their potential distribution range. We identified two main hotspot areas for endemic mammals: the Sinai and its surrounding coastal area in the East, and the Mediterranean Coast around Morocco in the West. Alarmingly, our results indicate that about 17% of the endemic mammals in the Afro-Arabian region under the current climate change scenarios could go extinct before 2050. Overall, a substantial number of the endemic species will change from the IUCN threat category "Least Concern" to "Critically Endangered" or "Extinct" in the coming decades. Accordingly, we call for implementing an urgent proactive conservation action for these endemic species, particularly those that face a high risk of extinction in the next few years. The results of our study provide conservation managers and practitioners with the required information for implementing an effective conservation plan to protect the biodiversity of the Afro-Arabian region.}, }
@article {pmid30700377, year = {2019}, author = {Swinburn, BA and Kraak, VI and Allender, S and Atkins, VJ and Baker, PI and Bogard, JR and Brinsden, H and Calvillo, A and De Schutter, O and Devarajan, R and Ezzati, M and Friel, S and Goenka, S and Hammond, RA and Hastings, G and Hawkes, C and Herrero, M and Hovmand, PS and Howden, M and Jaacks, LM and Kapetanaki, AB and Kasman, M and Kuhnlein, HV and Kumanyika, SK and Larijani, B and Lobstein, T and Long, MW and Matsudo, VKR and Mills, SDH and Morgan, G and Morshed, A and Nece, PM and Pan, A and Patterson, DW and Sacks, G and Shekar, M and Simmons, GL and Smit, W and Tootee, A and Vandevijvere, S and Waterlander, WE and Wolfenden, L and Dietz, WH}, title = {The Global Syndemic of Obesity, Undernutrition, and Climate Change: The Lancet Commission report.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {393}, number = {10173}, pages = {791-846}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32822-8}, pmid = {30700377}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {MR/L01341X/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; T32 HL130357/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change/economics ; Comorbidity ; Female ; Food Supply ; Global Health ; Health Policy/economics ; Humans ; Infant ; Male ; Malnutrition/economics/*epidemiology ; Obesity/economics/*epidemiology ; *Syndemic ; }, }
@article {pmid30699991, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, T and Ren, Z and Zhang, Y and Feng, B and Lin, H and Xiao, J and Zeng, W and Li, X and Li, Z and Rutherford, S and Xu, Y and Lin, S and Nasca, PC and Du, Y and Wang, J and Huang, C and Jia, P and Ma, W}, title = {Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {30699991}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Aging ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Global Warming ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Mortality ; *Population Growth ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.}, }
@article {pmid30698987, year = {2019}, author = {Burggren, WW}, title = {Inadequacy of typical physiological experimental protocols for investigating consequences of stochastic weather events emerging from global warming.}, journal = {American journal of physiology. Regulatory, integrative and comparative physiology}, volume = {316}, number = {4}, pages = {R318-R322}, pmid = {30698987}, issn = {1522-1490}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Research Design ; *Stochastic Processes ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Increasingly variable, extreme, and nonpredictable weather events are predicted to accompany climate change, and such weather events will especially affect temperate, terrestrial environments. Yet, typical protocols in comparative physiology that examine environmental change typically employ simple step-wise changes in the experimental stressor of interest (e.g., temperature, water availability, oxygen, nutrition). Such protocols fall short of mimicking actual natural environments and may be inadequate for fully exploring the physiological effects of stochastic, extreme weather events. Indeed, numerous studies from the field of thermal biology, especially, indicate nonlinear and sometimes counterintuitive findings associated with variable and fluctuating (but rarely truly stochastic) protocols for temperature change. This Perspective article suggests that alternative experimental protocols should be employed that go beyond step-wise protocols and even beyond variable protocols employing circadian rhythms, for example, to those that actually embrace nonpredictable elements. Such protocols, though admittedly more difficult to implement, are more likely to reveal the capabilities (and, importantly, the limitations) of animals experiencing weather, as distinct from climate. While some possible protocols involving stochasticity are described as examples to stimulate additional thought on experimental design, the overall goal of this Perspective article is to encourage comparative physiologists to entertain incorporation of nonpredictable experimental conditions as they design future experimental protocols.}, }
@article {pmid30698905, year = {2019}, author = {Bruno, D and Belmar, O and Maire, A and Morel, A and Dumont, B and Datry, T}, title = {Structural and functional responses of invertebrate communities to climate change and flow regulation in alpine catchments.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {5}, pages = {1612-1628}, pmid = {30698905}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Biota ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Invertebrates/classification/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Rivers ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Understanding and predicting how biological communities respond to climate change is critical for assessing biodiversity vulnerability and guiding conservation efforts. Glacier- and snow-fed rivers are one of the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change, and can provide early warning of wider-scale changes. These rivers are frequently used for hydropower production but there is minimal understanding of how biological communities are influenced by climate change in a context of flow regulation. This study sheds light on this issue by disentangling structural (water temperature preference, taxonomic composition, alpha, beta and gamma diversities) and functional (functional traits, diversity, richness, evenness, dispersion and redundancy) effects of climate change in interaction with flow regulation in the Alps. For this, we compared environmental and aquatic invertebrate data collected in the 1970s and 2010s in regulated and unregulated alpine catchments. We hypothesized a replacement of cold-adapted species by warming-tolerant ones, high temporal and spatial turnover in taxa and trait composition, along with reduced taxonomic and functional diversities in consequence of climate change. We expected communities in regulated rivers to respond more drastically due to additive or synergistic effects between flow regulation and climate change. We found divergent structural but convergent functional responses between free-flowing and regulated catchments. Although cold-adapted taxa decreased in both of them, greater colonization and spread of thermophilic species was found in the free-flowing one, resulting in higher spatial and temporal turnover. Since the 1970s, taxonomic diversity increased in the free flowing but decreased in the regulated catchment due to biotic homogenization. Colonization by taxa with new functional strategies (i.e. multivoltine taxa with small body size, resistance forms, aerial dispersion and reproduction by clutches) increased functional diversity but decreased functional redundancy through time. These functional changes could jeopardize the ability of aquatic communities facing intensification of ongoing climate change or new anthropogenic disturbances.}, }
@article {pmid30691890, year = {2019}, author = {Mertenat, A and Diener, S and Zurbrügg, C}, title = {Black Soldier Fly biowaste treatment - Assessment of global warming potential.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {84}, number = {}, pages = {173-181}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2018.11.040}, pmid = {30691890}, issn = {1879-2456}, mesh = {Animals ; *Composting ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Indonesia ; *Simuliidae ; *Waste Management ; }, abstract = {Cities of low and middle-income countries face severe challenges in managing the increasing amount of waste produced, especially the organic fraction. Black Soldier Fly (BSF) biowaste treatment is an attractive treatment option as it offers a solution for waste management while also providing a protein source to help alleviate the rising global demand for animal feed. However, to-date very little information is available on how this technology performs with regard to direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming potential (GWP). This paper presents a study that uses a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach to assess the GWP of a BSF waste treatment facility in the case of Indonesia and compares it with respective values for an open windrow composting facility. Direct CH4 and N2O samples were extracted from BSF treatment units and analyzed by gas chromatography. Results show that direct CO2eq emissions are 47 times lower the emissions from composting. Regarding the overall GWP, the LCA shows that composting has double the GWP of BSF treatment facility based on the functional unit of 1 ton of biowaste (wet weight). The main GWP contribution from a BSF facility are from: (1) residue post-composting (69%) and (2) electricity needs and source (up to 55%). Fishmeal production substitution by BSF larvae meal can reduce significantly the GWP (up to 30%). Based on this study, we conclude that BSF biowaste treatment offers an environmentally relevant alternative with very low direct GHG emissions and potentially high GWP reduction. Further research should improve residue post-treatment.}, }
@article {pmid30688178, year = {2019}, author = {Macdiarmid, JI and Whybrow, S}, title = {Nutrition from a climate change perspective.}, journal = {The Proceedings of the Nutrition Society}, volume = {78}, number = {3}, pages = {380-387}, doi = {10.1017/S0029665118002896}, pmid = {30688178}, issn = {1475-2719}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Diet ; Dietary Proteins ; Humans ; Nutritional Requirements ; Nutritional Status ; }, abstract = {Climate change is threatening future global food and nutrition security. Limiting the increase in global temperature to 1·5 °C set out in The Paris Agreement (2015) while achieving nutrient security means overhauling the current food system to create one that can deliver healthy and sustainable diets. To attain this, it is critical to understand the implications for nutrition of actions to mitigate climate change as well as the impacts of climate change on food production and the nutrient composition of foods. It is widely recognised that livestock production has a much greater environmental burden than crop production, and therefore advice is to reduce meat consumption. This has triggered concern in some sectors about a lack of protein in diets, which hence is driving efforts to find protein replacements. However, in most high- and middle-income countries, protein intakes far exceed dietary requirements and it would even if all meat were removed from diets. Reduction in micronutrients should be given more attention when reducing meat. Simply eating less meat does not guarantee healthier or more sustainable diets. Climate change will also affect the type, amount and nutrient quality of food that can be produced. Studies have shown that increased temperature and elevated CO2 levels can reduce the nutrient density of some staple crops, which is of particular concern in low-income countries. Nutrition from a climate change perspective means considering the potential consequences of any climate action on food and nutrition security. In this paper, we discuss these issues from an interdisciplinary perspective.}, }
@article {pmid30687988, year = {2019}, author = {Ettinger, AK and Chuine, I and Cook, BI and Dukes, JS and Ellison, AM and Johnston, MR and Panetta, AM and Rollinson, CR and Vitasse, Y and Wolkovich, EM}, title = {How do climate change experiments alter plot-scale climate?.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {748-763}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13223}, pmid = {30687988}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {NSF DBI 14-01854//National Science Foundation/ ; //Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Plants ; *Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot-scale climate data from 15 active-warming experiments. We find that the common practices of analysing treatments as mean or categorical changes (e.g. warmed vs. unwarmed) masks important variation in treatment effects over space and time. Our synthesis showed that measured mean warming, in plots with the same target warming within a study, differed by up to 1.6 ∘ C (63% of target), on average, across six studies with blocked designs. Variation was high across sites and designs: for example, plots differed by 1.1 ∘ C (47% of target) on average, for infrared studies with feedback control (n = 3) vs. by 2.2 ∘ C (80% of target) on average for infrared with constant wattage designs (n = 2). Warming treatments produce non-temperature effects as well, such as soil drying. The combination of these direct and indirect effects is complex and can have important biological consequences. With a case study of plant phenology across five experiments in our database, we show how accounting for drier soils with warming tripled the estimated sensitivity of budburst to temperature. We provide recommendations for future analyses, experimental design, and data sharing to improve our mechanistic understanding from climate change experiments, and thus their utility to accurately forecast species' responses.}, }
@article {pmid30682609, year = {2019}, author = {Kriaučiūnienė, J and Virbickas, T and Šarauskienė, D and Jakimavičius, D and Kažys, J and Bukantis, A and Kesminas, V and Povilaitis, A and Dainys, J and Akstinas, V and Jurgelėnaitė, A and Meilutytė-Lukauskienė, D and Tomkevičienė, A}, title = {Fish assemblages under climate change in Lithuanian rivers.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {661}, number = {}, pages = {563-574}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.142}, pmid = {30682609}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Biota/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Hot Temperature ; Hydrology ; Lithuania ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers/chemistry ; Salmo salar/physiology ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Alterations of abiotic factors (e.g., river water temperature and discharge) will definitely affect the fundamental processes of aquatic ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of climate change on the structure of fish assemblages in fast-flowing rivers belonging to the catchment of the major Eastern European river, the Nemunas. Five catchments of semi-natural rivers were selected for the study. Projections of abiotic factors were developed for the near (2016-2035) and far future (2081-2100) periods, according to four RCP scenarios and three climate models using the HBV hydrological modelling tool. Fish metric projections were developed based on a multiple regression using spatial data. No significant changes in projections of abiotic and biotic variables are generally expected in the near future. In the far future period, the abiotic factors are projected to change significantly, i.e., river water temperature is going to increase by 4.0-5.1 °C, and river discharge is projected to decrease by 16.7-40.6%, according to RCP8.5. By the end of century, the relative abundance of stenothermal fish is projected to decline from 24 to 51% in the reference period to 0-20% under RCP8.5. Eurythermal fish should benefit from climate change, and their abundance is likely to increase from 16 to 38% in the reference period to 38-65% under RCP8.5. Future alterations of river water temperature will have significantly more influence on the abundance of the analysed fish assemblages than river discharge.}, }
@article {pmid30680858, year = {2019}, author = {Rinkevich, B}, title = {Coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue mechanism to mitigate global climate change impacts.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {1198-1206}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14576}, pmid = {30680858}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {M33-001//USAID-MERC program/ ; //Israeli-French high council for scientific &amp; technological research program/ ; //NAF/IOLR/ ; }, abstract = {Climate change and anthropogenic pressures inflict a wide range of profound damages on coral reef ecosystems, reshaping coral reef communities due to their physiological and ecological intolerance to the newly developing environmental conditions. Here, I present coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue tool for accelerating adaptive responses to global climate change impacts. The "evolutionary rescue" power is contingent on the premise that coral chimerism counters the erosion of genetic and phenotypic diversity. Further benefits are gained when flexible chimeric entities alter their somatic constituents following changes in environmental conditions, synergistically presenting the best-fitting combination of their genetic components to endure in a capricious environment, exhibiting always their environmentally matched physiological characteristics. Chimerism should be considered as an integral part of the ecological engineering toolbox being developed for active reef restoration.}, }
@article {pmid30680250, year = {2018}, author = {Newman, G and Qiao, Z}, title = {Climate Change Armor.}, journal = {Cheng shi she ji (2015)}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {50-63}, pmid = {30680250}, issn = {2096-1235}, support = {P42 ES027704/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate Change Armor is a collection of adaptive flood attenuation mechanisms for protecting newly designed communities from flood events and the eventual impacts of sea level rise. League City, TX is used as an application site. NOAA predicts that sea levels will increase and storm surge will become more frequent along the Texas coast. In the Gulf Coast, sea level projects to rise up to 629 feet by 2100. The Climate Change Armor Toolkit comprises both structural and non-structural mechanisms which are either engineered to block and control heavy floods or rely on natural systems and green infrastructure to attenuate flood waters from frequent storms or hazard flood events. With the application of the Armor Toolkit, 221,921 cubic feet of runoff can be captured, nearly 2,400 new residents are protected, over 3,000 jobs are created, $23 million in physical flood damage can be avoided, and approximately $1.3 billion can be generated in the life cycle benefits of the newly designed community by 2100.}, }
@article {pmid30680125, year = {2019}, author = {Li, R}, title = {Protecting rare and endangered species under climate change on the Qinghai Plateau, China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {427-436}, pmid = {30680125}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change-induced species range shift may pose severe challenges to species conservation. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the highest and biggest plateau, and also one of the most sensitive areas to global warming in the world, which provides important shelters for a unique assemblage of species. Here, ecological niche-based model was employed to project the potential distributions of 59 key rare and endangered species under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Qinghai Province. I assessed the potential impacts of climate change on these key species (habitats, species richness and turnover) and effectiveness of nature reserves (NRs) in protecting these species. The results revealed that that climate change would shrink the geographic ranges of about a third studied species and expand the habitats for two thirds of these species, which would thus alter the conservation value of some local areas and conservation effectiveness of some NRs in Qinghai Province. Some regions require special attention as they are expected to experience significant changes in species turnover, species richness or newly colonized species in the future, including Haidong, Haibei and Haixi junctions, the southwestern Yushu, Qinghai Nuomuhong Provincial NR, Qinghai Qaidam and Haloxylon Forest NR. The Haidong and the eastern part of Haibei, are projected to have high species richness and conservation value in both current and future, but they are currently not protected, and thus require extra protection in the future. The results could provide the first basis on the high latitude region to formulate biodiversity conservation strategies on climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid30677982, year = {2019}, author = {Garofalo, P and Ventrella, D and Kersebaum, KC and Gobin, A and Trnka, M and Giglio, L and Dubrovský, M and Castellini, M}, title = {Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {1186-1208}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.279}, pmid = {30677982}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Germany ; Italy ; Models, Biological ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Uncertainty ; Water/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change could undermine the future grain production as a consequence of increased temperature and drought condition or improve the crop performance owing to the increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Wheat water demand and yield are strictly related to climate conditions of the area where the plants are cropped. In this study, we assessed the future trends of grain yield and water consumption in two European regions, Germany (Continental region) and Italy (Mediterranean region) in the light of the multiple sources of uncertainty related to climate and yield forecasts. Four crop models were set up under combinations of two European climate regions, five Global Circulation Models and two Representative CO2 Concentration Pathways, 486 ppm and 540 ppm in 2050. Yield and water use were assessed under rainfed and irrigated regimes, and the water footprint of green water and total water was estimated. Our results indicated that projected yields were comparable (Mediterranean area) or even improved (+9%; Continental area) in rainfed conditions in comparison to the current trend; and water supply enhanced crop performance (+22% in Germany and +19% in Italy, as mean). Crop water consumption (both green and blue) remained stable in future projections but the water footprint was 5% lower on average in Italy and 23% in Germany when compared to the baseline. Despite the uncertainty in future predictions related to the factors analysed, our result indicated that current wheat production and its water footprint could become more favourable under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30677981, year = {2019}, author = {Li, W and Xu, X and Yao, J and Tanaka, N and Nishimura, O and Ma, H}, title = {Combined effects of elevated carbon dioxide and temperature on phytoplankton-zooplankton link: A multi-influence of climate change on freshwater planktonic communities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {1175-1185}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.180}, pmid = {30677981}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Food Chain ; *Hot Temperature ; Japan ; Lakes ; Phytoplankton/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; Zooplankton/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {It is essential to understand the combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on phytoplankton-zooplankton link when attempting to predict climate change responses of freshwater ecosystems. Phytoplankton species differ in stoichiometric and fatty acids composition, and this may result in phytoplankton-mediated effect on zooplankton at elevated CO2 and temperature. Beyond the isolated analysis of CO2 or temperature effect, few studies have assessed zooplankton growth under the phytoplankton-mediated effects of elevated CO2 and temperature. In this study, three algal species (green alga, diatom, cyanobacteria) were fed on zooplankton Daphnia magna, under the conditions of CO2 concentrations of ambient (390 ppm) and elevated (1000 ppm) levels and temperatures at 20, 25 and 30 °C. Elevated CO2 increased the algal biomass, while it reduced the phosphorus (P) and ω3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (ω3 PUFAs) to carbon (C) ratios. Elevated temperature decreased the P/C ratios in all algal cultures and ω3 PUFAs/C ratios in the diatom and the cyanobacteria cultures. Phytoplankton-mediated effect of elevated CO2 reduced the growth of zooplankton fed on the green and the mixed three algae culture. The stimulation of zooplankton fed on the diatom and the cyanobacteria by elevated temperature can be offset by decreasing food P and ω3 PUFAs contents. The combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the growth of daphnids were mainly mediated by ω3 PUFAs/C ratios in the phytoplankton. Rising temperature as a combined direct and indirectly phytoplankton-mediated effect on zooplankton may be able to ameliorate the negative effects of elevated CO2. The results indicated that the combined effects of increased CO2 and temperature increased the fatty acid content of the green alga but not the other algae. This study highlighted that climate change with simultaneously increasing temperature and CO2 may entangle the carbon transfer in freshwater planktonic communities.}, }
@article {pmid30677973, year = {2019}, author = {He, W and Lian, J and Zhang, J and Yu, X and Chen, S}, title = {Impact of intra-annual runoff uniformity and global warming on the thermal regime of a large reservoir.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {1085-1097}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.207}, pmid = {30677973}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Thermal stratification is common in reservoirs and greatly influences the aquatic environment. Changes in the uniformity of intra-annual runoff have been detected in several basins, but few studies have focused on the impacts that these changes have on thermal regimes. Using runoff data for Sanbanxi Reservoir, China, during 1950-2015, the long-term trends of intra-annual runoff uniformity were statistically analyzed and extrapolated for the 2050s and 2090s, and the relationship between these trends and the thermal regime of the reservoir were investigated. Moreover, the thermal regime was evaluated for future climate scenarios accounting for global warming. This study shows the following: 1) for South China, the concentration degree (Cd) for the distribution of intra-annual runoff in natural basins such as Sanbanxi Reservoir tended to be higher, but for rivers significantly impacted by human activities, Cd tended to be lower. 2) a higher Cd was associated with an increased reservoir temperature and released water temperature, and decreased thermal stability. For Sanbanxi Reservoir, a 10% increase in Cd corresponded to a change in annual average temperature, thermal stability, and released water temperature of 0.036 °C, -48.4 J m[-2], and 0.153 °C, respectively. These changes were larger in summer than in other seasons; 3) global warming is predicted to increase reservoir temperature, released water temperature, and thermal stability, having a more significant influence on these parameters than intra-annual runoff uniformity; 4) future changes in thermal regimes will intensify oxygen stratification and hypolimnetic anoxia, promoting algal blooms, and delaying fish spawning. Effects of two methods aimed at controlling the thermal regime were also analyzed, including changing the operation level and intake elevation of the reservoir. This study investigated the response of the thermal regime of Sanbanxi Reservoir to climate change, and provides theoretical support for the management of water temperature and the reservoir's aquatic environment.}, }
@article {pmid30677949, year = {2019}, author = {Santillán, D and Iglesias, A and La Jeunesse, I and Garrote, L and Sotes, V}, title = {Vineyards in transition: A global assessment of the adaptation needs of grape producing regions under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {657}, number = {}, pages = {839-852}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.079}, pmid = {30677949}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Mediterranean Region ; Models, Statistical ; North America ; Oceania ; South Africa ; South America ; Temperature ; Vitis/*physiology ; }, abstract = {This paper suggests how climate change may transform vineyards. We consider changes in agro-climatic indicators derived from climatic variables as drivers for adaptation needs. We use two climate scenarios, GCM GFL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES, with 0.5° spatial resolution and daily time step forced by two emission scenarios, RCP2.6 and 6.0, to estimate the transition of potential vineyards in the major grape production world areas by the late 21st century. We present and discuss changes in three impact indicators - one drought indicator and two temperature ones - aimed at exploring the benefits of transition-based policies. The drought indicator provides insights to prepare adaptation for extreme events in probabilistic terms. The temperature indicators offer information on the transition towards suitable zones of production. Future projections suggest a lack of water to maintain current levels of production in all regions of the world. Furthermore, thermal suitability of grapevine may be greatly affected in China and the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, the possibility of quality wines is not altered within the regions with adequate suitability. Lastly, a portfolio of strategies to adapt to the future climate is presented.}, }
@article {pmid30671678, year = {2019}, author = {Carlson, JM and Lehman, BR and Thompson, JL}, title = {Climate change images produce an attentional bias associated with pro-environmental disposition.}, journal = {Cognitive processing}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {385-390}, pmid = {30671678}, issn = {1612-4790}, mesh = {Adult ; *Attention ; *Attentional Bias ; *Climate Change ; *Emotions ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; }, abstract = {Humans have developed mechanisms to prioritize certain sensory input(s). Emotionally salient stimuli automatically capture observers' attention at the cost of less salient information. This prioritized processing is called attentional bias. Images of climate change have been found to elicit emotional responses. Yet, to date, there is no research assessing the extent to which climate change-relevant images produce an attentional bias. In a sample of college students (N = 39), we found that (1) climate change-related images capture attention and that (2) this attentional bias is related to individual differences in environmental disposition. Thus, images of climate change are salient-attention grabbing-signals related to pro-environmental orientation.}, }
@article {pmid30671619, year = {2019}, author = {Mikovits, C and Zollitsch, W and Hörtenhuber, SJ and Baumgartner, J and Niebuhr, K and Piringer, M and Anders, I and Andre, K and Hennig-Pauka, I and Schönhart, M and Schauberger, G}, title = {Impacts of global warming on confined livestock systems for growing-fattening pigs: simulation of heat stress for 1981 to 2017 in Central Europe.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {221-230}, pmid = {30671619}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {ACRP8 ? PiPoCooL ? KR15AC8K12646//Austrian Climate Research Program/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Computer Simulation ; Europe ; *Global Warming ; Heat Stress Disorders/*prevention &amp; control/veterinary ; *Housing, Animal ; Microclimate ; *Models, Theoretical ; Swine ; Temperature ; Ventilation ; }, abstract = {In the mid-latitudes, pigs and poultry are kept predominantly in confined livestock buildings with a mechanical ventilation system. In the last decades, global warming has already been a challenge which causes hat stress for animals in such systems. Heat stress inside livestock buildings was assessed by a simulation model for the indoor climate, which is driven by meteorological parameters. Besides the meteorological conditions, the thermal environment inside the building depends on the sensible and latent energy release of the animals, the thermal properties of the building and the ventilation system and its control unit. For a site in Austria in the north of the Alpine Ridge, which is representative for confined livestock buildings for growing-fattening pigs in Central Europe, meteorological data between 1981 and 2017 were used for the model calculations of heat stress measures. This business-as-usual simulation over these 37 years resulted in an increase of the mean relative annual heat stress parameters in the range between 0.9 and 6.4% per year since 1981. In order to minimise the negative economic impact as the consequence of this positive trend of heat stress, adaptation measures are needed. The calculations for growing-fattening pigs show that such a simulation model for the indoor climate is an appropriate tool to determine the level of heat stress of livestock inside confined livestock buildings.}, }
@article {pmid30671299, year = {2019}, author = {Sáenz-Romero, C and Kremer, A and Nagy, L and Újvári-Jármay, &#xc9; and Ducousso, A and Kóczán-Horváth, A and Hansen, JK and Mátyás, C}, title = {Common garden comparisons confirm inherited differences in sensitivity to climate change between forest tree species.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {e6213}, pmid = {30671299}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The natural distribution, habitat, growth and evolutionary history of tree species are strongly dependent on ecological and genetic processes in ecosystems subject to fluctuating climatic conditions, but there have been few experimental comparisons of sensitivity between species. We compared the responses of two broadleaved tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea) and two conifer tree species (Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies) to climatic transfers by fitting models containing the same climatic variables. We used published data from European provenance test networks to model the responses of individual populations nested within species. A mixed model approach was applied to develop a response function for tree height over climatic transfer distance, taking into account the climatic conditions at both the seed source and the test location. The two broadleaved species had flat climatic response curves, indicating high levels of plasticity in populations, facilitating adaptation to a broader range of environments, and conferring a high potential for resilience in the face of climatic change. By contrast, the two conifer species had response curves with more pronounced slopes, indicating a lower resilience to climate change. This finding may reflect stronger genetic clines in P. sylvestris and P. abies, which constrain their climate responses to narrower climatic ranges. The response functions had maxima that deviated from the expected maximum productivity in the climate of provenance towards cooler/moister climate conditions, which we interpreted as an adaptation lag. Unilateral, linear regression analyses following transfer to warmer and drier sites confirmed a decline in productivity, predictive of the likely impact of ongoing climate change on forest populations. The responses to mimicked climate change evaluated here are of considerable interest for forestry and ecology, supporting projections of expected performance based on "real-time" field data.}, }
@article {pmid30671071, year = {2018}, author = {Varsamis, G and Papageorgiou, AC and Merou, T and Takos, I and Malesios, C and Manolis, A and Tsiripidis, I and Gailing, O}, title = {Adaptive Diversity of Beech Seedlings Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1918}, pmid = {30671071}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The ability of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations to adapt to the ongoing climate change is especially important in the southern part of Europe, where environmental change is expected to be more intense. In this study, we tested the existing adaptive potential of eight beech populations from two provenances in N.E. Greece (Evros and Drama) that show differences in their environmental conditions and biogeographical background. Seedling survival, growth and leaf phenological traits were selected as adaptive traits and were measured under simulated controlled climate change conditions in a growth chamber. Seedling survival was also tested under current conditions in the field. In the growth chamber, simulated conditions of temperature and precipitation for the year 2050 were applied for 3 years, under two different irrigation schemes, where the same amount of water was distributed either frequently (once every week) or non-frequently (once in 20 days). The results showed that beech seedlings were generally able to survive under climate change conditions and showed adaptive differences among provenances and populations. Furthermore, changes in the duration of the growing season of seedlings were recorded in the growth chamber, allowing them to avoid environmental stress and high selection pressure. Differences were observed between populations and provenances in terms of temporal distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature, rather than the average annual or monthly values of these measures. Additionally, different adaptive strategies appeared among beech seedlings when the same amount of water was distributed differently within each month. This indicates that the physiological response mechanisms of beech individuals are very complex and depend on several interacting parameters. For this reason, the choice of beech provenances for translocation and use in afforestation or reforestation projects should consider the small scale ecotypic diversity of the species and view multiple environmental and climatic parameters in connection to each other.}, }
@article {pmid30670759, year = {2019}, author = {Montánchez, I and Ogayar, E and Plágaro, AH and Esteve-Codina, A and Gómez-Garrido, J and Orruño, M and Arana, I and Kaberdin, VR}, title = {Analysis of Vibrio harveyi adaptation in sea water microcosms at elevated temperature provides insights into the putative mechanisms of its persistence and spread in the time of global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {289}, pmid = {30670759}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Adaptation, Physiological ; *Global Warming ; Seawater/*microbiology ; Temperature ; Vibrio/pathogenicity/*physiology ; Vibrio Infections/etiology ; }, abstract = {Discovering the means to control the increasing dissemination of pathogenic vibrios driven by recent climate change is challenged by the limited knowledge of the mechanisms in charge of Vibrio spp. persistence and spread in the time of global warming. To learn about physiological and gene expression patterns associated with the long-term persistence of V. harveyi at elevated temperatures, we studied adaptation of this marine bacterium in seawater microcosms at 30 °C which closely mimicked the upper limit of sea surface temperatures around the globe. We found that nearly 90% of cells lost their culturability and became partly damaged after two weeks, thus suggesting a negative impact of the combined action of elevated temperature and shortage of carbon on V. harveyi survival. Moreover, further gene expression analysis revealed that major adaptive mechanisms were poorly coordinated and apparently could not sustain cell fitness. On the other hand, elevated temperature and starvation promoted expression of many virulence genes, thus potentially reinforcing the pathogenicity of this organism. These findings suggest that the increase in disease outbreaks caused by V. harveyi under rising sea surface temperatures may not reflect higher cell fitness, but rather an increase in virulence enabling V. harveyi to escape from adverse environments to nutrient rich, host-pathogen associations.}, }
@article {pmid30669456, year = {2019}, author = {Paterson, RRM}, title = {Ganoderma boninense Disease of Oil Palm to Significantly Reduce Production After 2050 in Sumatra if Projected Climate Change Occurs.}, journal = {Microorganisms}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {30669456}, issn = {2076-2607}, abstract = {Palm oil is a valuable crop. This relates to the high economic return from sales of the commodity, where Indonesia is the major producer in the world and the island of Sumatra is the most important region for palm oil production in the country. The island can be considered as a model for other oil palm growing regions in SE Asia. The area in Sumatra with a suitable climate for growing oil palm will decrease in size due to projected climate change as demonstrated specifically herein. The more unsuitable climate will lead to concomitant increases in basal stem rot (BSR) by Ganoderma boninense, as previously predicted, which is of major concern to sustainability in SE Asia. A novel approach is described herein, whereby (a) a determination of suitable climate for growing oil palm in Sumatra and (b) deductions to determine future BSR levels on the island were undertaken. The unsuitability of the climate for oil palm is predicted to increase dramatically after 2050 when BSR is predicted to increase to very high levels on most parts of the island. This is likely to make palm oil production unsustainable at some stage between 2050 and 2100. North Sumatra may be more sustainable than the other areas considered in Sumatra. These effects of projected climate change require amelioration before the high levels of BSR and the unsuitable climate for oil palm are realized.}, }
@article {pmid30667508, year = {2019}, author = {Friedrich, MJ}, title = {Tracking Progress on Mitigating Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {321}, number = {3}, pages = {238}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2018.21621}, pmid = {30667508}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid30666613, year = {2020}, author = {Rudel, TK and Meyfroidt, P and Chazdon, R and Bongers, F and Sloan, S and Grau, HR and Van Holt, T and Schneider, L}, title = {Whither the forest transition? Climate change, policy responses, and redistributed forests in the twenty-first century.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {49}, number = {1}, pages = {74-84}, pmid = {30666613}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {#DEB1313788//National Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forestry ; Forests ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Forest transitions occur when net reforestation replaces net deforestation in places. Because forest transitions can increase biodiversity and augment carbon sequestration, they appeal to policymakers contending with the degrading effects of forest loss and climate change. What then can policymakers do to trigger forest transitions? The historical record over the last two centuries provides insights into the precipitating conditions. The early transitions often occurred passively, through the spontaneous regeneration of trees on abandoned agricultural lands. Later forest transitions occurred more frequently after large-scale crisis narratives emerged and spurred governments to take action, often by planting trees on degraded, sloped lands. To a greater degree than their predecessors, latecomer forest transitions exhibit centralized loci of power, leaders with clearly articulated goals, and rapid changes in forest cover. These historical shifts in forest transitions reflect our growing appreciation of their utility for countering droughts, floods, land degradation, and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30665904, year = {2019}, author = {Launer, J}, title = {Climate change: beyond denial and grief.}, journal = {Postgraduate medical journal}, volume = {95}, number = {1119}, pages = {59-60}, doi = {10.1136/postgradmedj-2019-136407}, pmid = {30665904}, issn = {1469-0756}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; *Denial, Psychological ; *Grief ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid30665126, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, CC and Wang, YR and Guo, YL and Wang, YC and Lu, MM}, title = {Short-term prediction of extremely hot days in summer due to climate change and ENSO and related attributable mortality.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {661}, number = {}, pages = {10-17}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.168}, pmid = {30665126}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology/*mortality ; *Climate Change ; *El Nino-Southern Oscillation/adverse effects ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/etiology/*mortality ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Seasons ; Taiwan/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Summer days with extremely hot temperatures in Taiwan have been increasing for the past few decades, and this continuing trend is expected to worsen heat-related mortality. To mitigate the corresponding health impacts, in this study, we developed a statistical state-space model to predict the number of extremely hot days in June-September for the next year. Based on historical data from 1951 to 2017, we estimated the climate change trend after adjusting for the nonlinear lagged effect of the Niño 3.4 index. We then developed a predictive state-space model using these two primary factors and adjusting for residual autocorrelations. Validation results comparing the extremely hot days observed over 2015-2017 with predictions showed that 86% of the average prediction errors were within 4 days of the observations. To assess the health impacts, we applied the model to the projection of heat-attributable mortality (AM) in 2018 by adopting a comparative risk assessment (CRA) approach with the reference period of 2001-2010. The results showed that the Taipei metropolitan area in northern Taiwan is the most affected region with AM of 1501 deaths from all-causes, followed by Taichung in central Taiwan with 490 deaths. The prediction model and the CRA projection provide both a tool and guidance for public health administrators to address the imminent threat posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30664698, year = {2019}, author = {Pardo, JD and Small, BJ and Milner, AR and Huttenlocker, AK}, title = {Carboniferous-Permian climate change constrained early land vertebrate radiations.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {200-206}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0776-z}, pmid = {30664698}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Fossils ; Paleontology ; Rainforest ; *Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {The Carboniferous-Permian transition (CPT) was Earth's last pre-Quaternary icehouse-greenhouse transition, recording major shifts in late Palaeozoic climate regimes and increased continental seasonality over approximately 40 Myr. Its parallels to Quaternary climate change have inspired recent investigations into the impacts of purported rainforest collapse on palaeotropical vertebrate diversity, but little is known about how the protracted spatial dynamics of this transition impacted the emergence of modern tetrapod lineages. Here, we apply ecological ordinance analyses on a dataset of 286 CPT fossil vertebrate localities binned across four physiographic regions forming a palaeoequatorial transect. Our results clarify the spatiotemporal expansion of land-living vertebrates, demonstrating that the reduction of tropical wetlands accommodated emerging dryland-adapted amniote faunas from a western Pangaean epicentre. We call this west-east lag the 'Vaughn-Olson model': CPT climatic transitions were regionally diachronous with delayed proliferation of amniote-dominated dryland assemblages in the east. By combining our ecological analyses with a phylogenetic approach, we demonstrate that this pattern also applies to some co-occurring total-group amphibians, suggesting that there was pervasive selection for such dryland adaptations across the crown tetrapod tree, in contrast with stem tetrapods and 'fishes'.}, }
@article {pmid30662319, year = {2019}, author = {Göpfert, C and Wamsler, C and Lang, W}, title = {A framework for the joint institutionalization of climate change mitigation and adaptation in city administrations.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {1-21}, pmid = {30662319}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Cities are key actors in reducing both the causes of climate change (mitigation) and its impact (adaptation), and many have developed separate mitigation and adaptation strategies and measures. However, in order to maximize outcomes, both scholars and practitioners are increasingly calling for more integrated and synergetic approaches. Unfortunately, related research remains scarce and fragmented, and there is a lack of systematic investigation into the necessary institutional conditions and processes. Against this background, this paper develops a framework to assess and support the joint institutionalization of climate adaptation and mitigation-here called adaptigation-in city administrations. This pioneering framework draws upon four key features of bureaucracies: organizational structure, visions and goals, actors, and technology and tools. Illustrated by pilot applications to the cities of Würzburg (Germany) and Mwanza (Tanzania), the framework provides a robust basis for future research, policy recommendations, and the development of context-specific guidelines for national and local decision-makers and officials. It highlights the importance of (i) clearly defined procedures for the implementation of adaptigation into urban planning processes (e.g., with the active involvement of stakeholders in the form of working groups or roundtable discussions), (ii) locally relevant goals and visions, established in collaboration with stakeholders, and (iii) the creation of mitigation and adaptation structures that are supported by the appropriate level of human resources, both within and outside city administrations. In this context, global, supranational, and national institutions play an important role in supporting institutionalization by providing targeted funding and promoting adaptigation, which requires the development of integrated goals, visions, and legislation.}, }
@article {pmid30660270, year = {2019}, author = {Barreras, H and Kelly, EA and Kumar, N and Solo-Gabriele, HM}, title = {Assessment of local and regional strategies to control bacteria levels at beaches with consideration of impacts from climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {138}, number = {}, pages = {249-259}, pmid = {30660270}, issn = {1879-3363}, support = {P50 ES012736/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Bacteria ; *Bathing Beaches ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Feces/*microbiology ; Florida ; Multivariate Analysis ; Temperature ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {The objective of this study was to evaluate relationships between local factors (beach geomorphology and management) and regional factors (infrastructure improvements and temperature changes) against levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) at recreational beaches. Data were evaluated for 17 beaches located in Monroe County, Florida (Florida Keys), USA, including an assessment of sanitary infrastructure improvements using equivalent dwelling unit (EDU) connections. Results show that elevated FIB levels were associated with beach geomorphologies characterized by impeded flow and by beaches with lax management policies. The decrease in EDUs not connected coincided with a decrease in the fraction of days when bacteria levels were out of compliance. Multivariate factor analysis also identified beach management practices (presence of homeless and concession stands) as being associated with elevated FIB. Overall, results suggest that communities can utilize beach management strategies and infrastructure improvements to overcome the negative water quality impacts anticipated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30657748, year = {2019}, author = {Rodríguez Mega, E}, title = {Wild coffee species threatened by climate change and deforestation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-00150-9}, pmid = {30657748}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30655436, year = {2019}, author = {Jean, K and Wymant, C}, title = {Airborne in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {363}, number = {6424}, pages = {240}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw1145}, pmid = {30655436}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid30652192, year = {2018}, author = {Prior, JH and Connon, IL and McIntyre, E and Adams, J and Capon, A and Kent, J and Rissel, C and Thomas, LE and Thompson, SM and Westcott, H}, title = {Built environment interventions for human and planetary health: integrating health in climate change adaptation and mitigation.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841831}, pmid = {30652192}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {*Built Environment/ethics/organization &amp; administration ; City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Environment Design ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; *Health ; Humans ; *Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Human-generated climate change is causing adverse health effects through multiple direct pathways (e.g. heatwaves, sea-level rise, storm frequency and intensity) and indirect pathways (e.g. food and water insecurity, social instability). Although the health system has a key role to play in addressing these health effects, so too do those professions tasked with the development of the built environment (urban and regional planners, urban designers, landscapers and architects), through improvements to buildings, streets, neighbourhoods, suburbs and cities. This article reports on the ways in which urban planning and design, and architectural interventions, can address the health effects of climate change; and the scope of climate change adaptation and mitigation approaches being implemented by the built environment professions. Type of program or service: Built environment adaptations and mitigations and their connections to the ways in which urban planning, urban design and architectural practices are addressing the health effects of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Our reflections draw on the findings of a recent review of existing health and planning literature. First, we explore the ways in which 'adaptation' and 'mitigation' relate to the notion of human and planetary health. We then outline the broad scope of adaptation and mitigation interventions being envisioned, and in some instances actioned, by built environment professionals.<br><br>RESULTS: Analysis of the review's findings reveals that adaptations developed by built environment professions predominantly focus on protecting human health and wellbeing from the effects of climate change. In contrast, built environment mitigations address climate change by embracing a deeper understanding of the co-benefits inherent in the interconnectedness of human health and wellbeing and the health of the ecosystem on which it depends. In the final section, we highlight the ethical transition that these approaches demand of built environment professions.<br><br>LESSONS LEARNT: Built environment interventions must move beyond simple ecological sustainability to encouraging ways of life that are healthy for both humans and the planet. There are key challenges facing this new approach.}, }
@article {pmid30652188, year = {2018}, author = {Beggs, PJ}, title = {Climate change and allergy in Australia: an innovative, high-income country, at potential risk.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841828}, pmid = {30652188}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology/etiology ; Pollen/adverse effects ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/epidemiology/etiology ; Risk ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases are important and potentially serious in Australia. Australia is highly vulnerable to such impacts because of its very high prevalence of allergic diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis, and allergic sensitisation to environmental allergens such as certain pollens and fungal spores. This article aims to review published research on the impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases from an Australian perspective.<br><br>METHODS: Research on climate change, allergens and allergy was reviewed. Recent global assessments of the topic were consulted, and supplemented with database searches to identify research published since the assessments were done, as well as research with an Australian focus. The databases used were Web of Science and Scopus. Only research published since the year 2000 was included.<br><br>RESULTS: The impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases are many and varied. Impacts on pollen include effects on pollen production and atmospheric pollen concentration, pollen seasonality, pollen allergenicity, and the dispersion and spatial distribution of pollen. Similarly, there is evidence for effects on fungal spore production, seasonality and allergenicity. There are also likely effects on indoor moisture and mould growth. Beyond these respiratory allergens, climate change may also affect food allergens, stinging insect allergens and contact allergens. All these changes could affect allergic diseases, in particular allergic respiratory diseases such as allergic asthma and allergic rhinitis.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A large and sophisticated body of research exists from which to gauge both current and potential future impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases. However, most, if not all, of this is from outside Australia. Australian-focused research is therefore urgently needed. Australia's vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change on allergic diseases is compounded by the precarious nature of aeroallergen monitoring, reporting and forecasting in this country. But Australia has an impressive wealth of relevant experience and expertise, and has the potential to address the challenge of both current and future impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases.}, }
@article {pmid30652186, year = {2018}, author = {Boylan, S and Beyer, K and Schlosberg, D and Mortimer, A and Hime, N and Scalley, B and Alders, R and Corvalan, C and Capon, A}, title = {A conceptual framework for climate change, health and wellbeing in NSW, Australia.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841826}, pmid = {30652186}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; New South Wales ; Public Health ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Changes in natural hazards related to climate change are evident in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, and are projected to become more frequent and intense. The impacts of climate change may adversely affect health and wellbeing, directly via extreme weather events such as heatwaves, storms and floods, and indirectly via impacts on food security, air and water quality, and other environmental amenities. The NSW Government's Climate Change Policy Framework recognises the need to reduce the effects of climate change on health and wellbeing. A conceptual framework can support the aims and objectives of the policy framework by depicting the effects of climate change on health, and individual and social wellbeing, and areas for policy actions and responses. A proposed conceptual framework has been developed, modelled on the Driving force, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect and Action (DPSEEA) framework of the World Health Organization - a framework which shows the link between exposures and health effects as well as entry points for interventions. The proposed framework presented in this paper was developed in consultation with researchers and policy makers. The framework is guiding current research examining vulnerabilities to climate change and the effects of a range of exposures on health and wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid30652185, year = {2018}, author = {Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S and Pitman, A}, title = {Extreme events in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841825}, pmid = {30652185}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; Droughts ; Extreme Heat ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Natural Disasters/economics ; Rainforest ; }, abstract = {By definition, extreme events are rare. Socio-economic and human systems have not experienced adverse extreme events frequently enough to develop resilience, whether this be physical, economical or structural. Humans are vulnerable to extreme events because of our physiology and because we build thresholds into our socio-economic and human health systems. When these thresholds are exceeded the consequences can be devastating. This perspective will discuss changes in heat, drought and heavy rainfall extremes in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30652184, year = {2018}, author = {Hime, N and Vyas, A and Lachireddy, K and Wyett, S and Scalley, B and Corvalan, C}, title = {Climate change, health and wellbeing: challenges and opportunities in NSW, Australia.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841824}, pmid = {30652184}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; *Health ; Health Promotion ; Humans ; New South Wales ; }, abstract = {The NSW (New South Wales) Climate Change Policy Framework, launched by the NSW Government in 2016, recognises that climate change presents risks to health and wellbeing. Risks to health and wellbeing come from direct impacts of extreme weather events, and from indirect impacts through effects on air, water, food and ecosystems. Responding to these challenges offers an opportunity to protect and promote health by enhancing environmental amenities, and building adaptive capacity and resilience in populations and systems. To develop policy that effectively protects and promotes health in the face of climate change in NSW it is necessary to define the expected impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing in NSW.}, }
@article {pmid30652183, year = {2018}, author = {Capon, A and Corvalan, C}, title = {Climate change and health: global issue, local responses.}, journal = {Public health research &amp; practice}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.17061/phrp2841823}, pmid = {30652183}, issn = {2204-2091}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid30650319, year = {2019}, author = {Solomon, CG and LaRocque, RC}, title = {Climate Change - A Health Emergency.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {380}, number = {3}, pages = {209-211}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp1817067}, pmid = {30650319}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Behavior ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; *Public Health ; Public Opinion ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30650240, year = {2019}, author = {Moat, J and Gole, TW and Davis, AP}, title = {Least concern to endangered: Applying climate change projections profoundly influences the extinction risk assessment for wild Arabica coffee.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {390-403}, pmid = {30650240}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Coffea/*physiology ; *Endangered Species ; *Extinction, Biological ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Dispersal ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present-day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria.}, }
@article {pmid30649928, year = {2019}, author = {Silverman, GS}, title = {Systematic Lack of Educational Preparation in Addressing Climate Change as a Major Public Health Challenge.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {109}, number = {2}, pages = {242-243}, pmid = {30649928}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Curriculum/standards ; Humans ; Professional Competence/standards ; Public Health/*education/*standards ; Public Health Administration ; }, }
@article {pmid30649565, year = {2019}, author = {Arco Molina, JG and Helle, G and Hadad, MA and Roig, FA}, title = {Variations in the intrinsic water-use efficiency of north Patagonian forests under a present climate change scenario: tree age, site conditions and long-term environmental effects.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {661-678}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpy144}, pmid = {30649565}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; Carbon Isotopes/analysis ; Climate Change ; Endangered Species ; Forests ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Tracheophyta/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Water/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The carbon isotope composition (δ13C) in tree rings were used to derive the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of Araucaria araucana trees of northern Patagonia along a strong precipitation gradient. It is well known that climatic and ontogenetic factors affect growth performance of this species but little is known about their influence in the physiological responses, as iWUE. Thus, the main objective of this study was to assess the physiological reactions of young and adult trees from two open xeric and two moderately dense mesic A. araucana forests to the increases in atmospheric CO2 (Ca) and air temperature during the 20th century, and to relate these responses with radial tree growth. The results indicated that the iWUE and the intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) increased 33% and 32% in average during the last century, respectively, but carbon isotope discrimination (∆13C) was more variable between sites and age classes. Trees from xeric sites presented greater iWUE and lower ∆13C and Ci values than those from mesic sites. In general, iWUE was strongly related with Ca and was significantly affected by mean summer maximum temperature. ∆13C from mesic sites seemed to be mainly affected by summer maximum temperature, while trees from xeric conditions did not show any influence. Tree age also presented a significant effect on iWUE. Adult trees showed higher iWUE values than young trees, indicating an incidence of the tree age and/or height, mainly in closed mesic forests. Moreover, some trees presented positive relationships between iWUE and radial tree growth, while others presented negative or no relationships, indicating that other factors may negatively influence tree growth. Broadly, the results demonstrate the incidence of climatic, environmental and ontogenetic variability in the tree responses; however, more studies are needed to better understand which forests will be more affected by actual and future climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid30648210, year = {2019}, author = {Heshmati, I and Khorasani, N and Shams-Esfandabad, B and Riazi, B}, title = {Forthcoming risk of Prosopis juliflora global invasion triggered by climate change: implications for environmental monitoring and risk assessment.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {2}, pages = {72}, pmid = {30648210}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Middle East ; Prosopis/*physiology ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate is a determinant factor in species distribution and climate change will affect the species abilities to occupy geographic regions. Prosopis juliflora is one of the most problematic invasive species and its biological invasion causes various negative effects in tropical, arid, and semi-arid regions of the world. As eradication efforts subsequent to the establishment of an alien invasive species are costly and time-consuming, assessing patterns of the introduction of an invasive species to new regions is among the most cost-effective means of monitoring and management of natural ecosystems. In this study by using the concept of species distribution modeling (SDM) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of P. juliflora has been assessed at a global scale. Bioclimatic variables in current condition and 2050 regarding two global circulation models (GCM) and two climate change scenarios were considered as explanatory variables. Our results showed that annual mean temperature (BIO1), annual precipitation (BIO12), and temperature mean diurnal range (BIO2) represented more than 87% of the variations in the model, and with an AUC of 0.854 and TSS of 0.51, the model showed a good predictive performance. Our results indicate that on a global scale, suitable ranges for P. juliflora increase across all the GCM and RCP scenarios. In a global scale, Mediterranean Basin, Middle East, and North America are regions with the highest risk of range expansion in the future. Regarding the negative impacts of P. juliflora on structure and function of natural habitats in the invaded areas, findings of this study could be considered as a warning appliance for the environmental monitoring of the regions highly sensitive to the global invasion of the species. We suggest that assessing impacts of climate change on the global distribution of the invasive species could be used as an efficient tool to implement broad-scale and priority-setting monitoring programs in natural ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30647435, year = {2019}, author = {Fadrique, B and Báez, S and Duque, &#xc1; and Malizia, A and Blundo, C and Carilla, J and Osinaga-Acosta, O and Malizia, L and Silman, M and Farfán-Ríos, W and Malhi, Y and Young, KR and Francisco, CC and Homeier, J and Peralvo, M and Pinto, E and Jadan, O and Aguirre, N and Aguirre, Z and Feeley, KJ}, title = {Author Correction: Widespread but heterogeneous responses of Andean forests to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7741}, pages = {E10}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0862-z}, pmid = {30647435}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {In Fig. 2 of this Article, the positive part of the y axis scale should read 0, 0.02, 0.04 instead of 0, 0.04, 0.02. This has been corrected online.}, }
@article {pmid30644447, year = {2019}, author = {Popkin, G}, title = {How much can forests fight climate change?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7739}, pages = {280-282}, pmid = {30644447}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Congresses as Topic ; Forestry/*methods ; *Forests ; Geographic Mapping ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Trees/*metabolism ; *Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid30642975, year = {2019}, author = {Bruine de Bruin, W and Morgan, MG}, title = {Reflections on an interdisciplinary collaboration to inform public understanding of climate change, mitigation, and impacts.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {16}, pages = {7676-7683}, pmid = {30642975}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; *Interdisciplinary Communication ; Models, Psychological ; *Public Opinion ; Risk ; Science/*education ; }, abstract = {We describe two interdisciplinary projects in which natural scientists and engineers, as well as psychologists and other behavioral scientists, worked together to better communicate about climate change, including mitigation and impacts. One project focused on understanding and informing public perceptions of an emerging technology to capture and sequester carbon dioxide from coal-fired power plants, as well as other low-carbon electricity-generation technologies. A second project focused on public understanding about carbon dioxide's residence time in the atmosphere. In both projects, we applied the mental-models approach, which aims to design effective communications by using insights from interdisciplinary teams of experts and mental models elicited from intended audience members. In addition to summarizing our findings, we discuss the process of interdisciplinary collaboration that we pursued in framing and completing both projects. We conclude by describing what we think we have learned about the conditions that supported our ongoing interdisciplinary collaborations.}, }
@article {pmid30641382, year = {2019}, author = {Rolo, V and Moreno, G}, title = {Shrub encroachment and climate change increase the exposure to drought of Mediterranean wood-pastures.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {550-558}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.029}, pmid = {30641382}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Forests ; Grassland ; Models, Theoretical ; Soil/chemistry ; Spain ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Pastures and wood-pastures, livestock grazing systems where scattered trees and shrubs co-occur, are essential for global food supply. The grazing value of these systems, which is closely related to soil moisture, is increasingly threatened by changes in climate variability and vegetation structure, mainly by shrub encroachment. However, it remains relatively unexplored to what extent the concurrent effect of climate change and shrub encroachment will affect the exposure to drought stress of Mediterranean wood-pastures - defined as a period where soil water availability drops below 40%. Here we combined soil moisture measurements and a process-based water balance model to assess the effect of shrubs, a shallow- and a deep-rooted, on soil moisture under current (2009-2012) and future weather (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Soil moisture was measured and predicted in six sites, three for each type of shrub, where two adjacent plots were selected, a control and an encroached plot. During 2009-2012, encroached plots had more extended droughts (29 and 48 days longer in sites encroached with shallow- and deep-rooted shrubs, respectively) and higher usage of deep water (~30%) than control plots. Under future climatic projections, our results show a consistent increase in the duration, an earlier onset of drought and higher reliance on shallow water with time, particularly under the worst climatic scenario. Encroached plots showed higher inter-annual variability than control plots, particularly in plots encroached with the deep-rooted shrub. Our results indicate that the presence of shrubs magnify the effect of climate. This suggests a likely increase in the exposure of Mediterranean wood-pastures to drought if processes of shrub encroachment persist in a context of climatic changes where earlier and more prolonged droughts will become more frequent.}, }
@article {pmid30640092, year = {2019}, author = {Zheng, K and Wei, JZ and Pei, JY and Cheng, H and Zhang, XL and Huang, FQ and Li, FM and Ye, JS}, title = {Impacts of climate change and human activities on grassland vegetation variation in the Chinese Loess Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {236-244}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.022}, pmid = {30640092}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Grassland ; *Human Activities ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {China initiated the "Grain for Green Project" in 1999 to mitigate soil erosion. The vegetation cover of the Chinese Loess Plateau, one of the most erosive regions in the world, has been greatly increased. However, studies on quantitatively investigating the climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage change were rare. In this study, spatio-temporal changes in vegetation coverage were investigated using MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data over 2000-2016. And a new method was introduced using Net Primary Productivity (NPP) model and relationship between NPP and NDVI to quantitatively and spatially distinguish the NDVI affected by climate change and human activities. Results showed that mean NDVI value over 2009-2016 were 14.46% greater than that over 2000-2007. In order to quantify the contribution of climate change and human activities to vegetation change, an NPP model suitable for the grassland of the Chinese Loess Plateau was identified using biomass observations from field survey and literature. The NDVI affected by climate change (NDVIclimate) was estimated by the NPP model and the relationship between NPP and NDVI. And the NDVI affected by human activities (NDVIhuman) was calculated by actual NDVI minus NDVIclimate. Comparison of the two stages showed that human activities and climate change contributed 42.35% and 57.65% respectively to the ΔNDVI on grassland in the Loess Plateau. After analysis of numerous NDVIhuman related factors, the slopes restored by the "Grain for Green Project" was considered the main influence factor of human activities.}, }
@article {pmid30640086, year = {2019}, author = {Li, G and Sun, S and Han, J and Yan, J and Liu, W and Wei, Y and Lu, N and Sun, Y}, title = {Impacts of Chinese Grain for Green program and climate change on vegetation in the Loess Plateau during 1982-2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {660}, number = {}, pages = {177-187}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.028}, pmid = {30640086}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Biota ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Remote sensing based vegetation index provides a practical method for the monitoring of vegetation dynamics at regional and global scales. Here, using a long-term remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset, we quantified the vegetation changes in the Loess Plateau (LP) over the last three decades (1982-2015), which includes the period before the Chinese"Grain for Green Program"(GGP) was launched (1982-1999), and the period after the GGP (1999-2015). The correlations between the NDVI and four climate related variables, i.e., precipitation, temperature, root-soil moisture (RSM), and a drought proxy-standardized evapotranspiration deficit index (SEDI), were also examined. The results indicated that, (i) the GGP strongly changed the vegetation in the LP. The growing-season mean NDVI (GSM-NDVI) and the annual mean NDVI (AM-NDVI) decreased slightly before the GGP launched in 1999, with slopes of -3.38×10[-3] and-8.00×10[-4]year[-1], respectively. However, they showed slight and significant (p<0.05) increases after the GGP, with slopes of 4.75×10[-3] and 2.32×10[-3]year[-1], respectively. (ii) Climate change (i.e., warming and drying) resulted in adverse effects on vegetation in the LP during the period before the GGP. However, the observed changes (i.e., wetting and reduced drought) exerted positive effects on the vegetation during the period after the GGP. (iii) Inter-annual variations of spatially averaged NDVI over the LP were primarily determined by RSM rather than any other climate related variables. In the southeastern LP, the inter-annual variation of GSM-NDVI was mainly determined by precipitation and SEDI, while the inter-annual variation of AM-NDVI was mainly caused by SEDI and RSM. Inter-annual variations of both GSM-NDVI and AM-NDVI were mainly determined by SEDI and RSM in the northwestern LP, and by temperature in the southwestern LP.}, }
@article {pmid30639109, year = {2019}, author = {Samplonius, JM and Both, C}, title = {Climate Change May Affect Fatal Competition between Two Bird Species.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {327-331.e2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2018.11.063}, pmid = {30639109}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Competitive Behavior ; England ; Female ; Male ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Songbirds/*physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate warming has altered phenologies of many taxa [1, 2], but the extent differs vastly between [3, 4] and within trophic levels [5-7]. Differential adjustment to climate warming within trophic levels may affect coexistence of competing species, because relative phenologies alter facilitative and competitive outcomes [8, 9], but evidence for this is scant [10, 11]. Here, we report on two mechanisms through which climate change may affect fatal interactions between two sympatric passerines, the resident great tit Parus major and the migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, competing for nest sites. Spring temperature more strongly affected breeding phenology of tits than flycatchers, and tits killed more flycatchers when flycatcher arrival coincided with peak laying in the tits. Ongoing climate change may diminish this fatal competition if great tit and flycatcher phenologies diverge. However, great tit density increased after warm winters, and flycatcher mortality was elevated when tit densities were higher. Consequently, flycatcher males in synchronous and high-tit-density years suffered mortality by great tits of up to 8.9%. Interestingly, we found no population consequences of fatal competition, suggesting that mortality predominantly happened among surplus males. Indeed, late-arriving males are less likely to find a partner [12], and here we show that such late arrivers are more likely to die from competition with great tits. We conclude that our breeding population is buffered against detrimental effects of competition. Nevertheless, we expect that if buffers are diminished, population consequences of interspecific competition may become apparent, especially after warm winters that are benign to resident species. VIDEO ABSTRACT.}, }
@article {pmid30637722, year = {2019}, author = {Verheyen, J and Stoks, R}, title = {Temperature variation makes an ectotherm more sensitive to global warming unless thermal evolution occurs.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {88}, number = {4}, pages = {624-636}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12946}, pmid = {30637722}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Larva ; *Odonata ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {To assess long-term impacts of global warming on species, there is growing interest in latitudinal intraspecific patterns in thermal adaptation. Yet, while both mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations (DTFs) are expected to increase under global warming, latitudinal differences in the effects of DTFs have not been documented. We tested whether low-latitude populations of an ectotherm deal better with greater DTF than high-latitude populations, especially at a high mean temperature close to the optimal temperature for growth where DTF causes exposure to extreme high temperatures. We evaluated the impact of DTFs when assessing the effect of gradual thermal evolution at the high latitude with a space-for-time substitution. We compared effects of both mean temperatures (20 and 24°C) and DTFs (constant = 0°C, low = 5°C and high = 10°C) on growth rates between low-latitude and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans in a common-garden experiment. DTFs, if anything, reduced growth and were generally stressful as indicated by reductions in body condition, antioxidant defence and metabolic rate, and increases in oxidative damage. Most negative effects of DTFs were only present at a mean of 24°C when too high temperatures were reached during a daily cycle. Notably, while 4°C warming was beneficial in terms of growth rate at both latitudes at a constant temperature regime, this changed in a negative effect at high DTF. Moreover, this modulating effect of the mean temperature by DTF differed between latitudes indicating local thermal adaptation. While 4°C warming at low DTF still caused faster growth in low-latitude larvae, it already slowed growth in high-latitude larvae. This supports the emerging insight that warming would increase growth in high-latitude larvae in the absence of DTF, yet would decrease growth in the more realistic scenarios with DTF. In contrast, a space-for-time substitution approach suggested that under gradual thermal evolution, the evolved high-latitude larvae would no longer suffer a growth reduction in the presence of DTF. Our study provided important proof-of-principle that jointly integrating gradual thermal evolution and the expected increase in DTF generates opposing predictions of effects of global warming on this ectotherm.}, }
@article {pmid30636278, year = {2019}, author = {Davies, WJ}, title = {Multiple temperature effects on phenology and body size in wild butterflies predict a complex response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {100}, number = {4}, pages = {e02612}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2612}, pmid = {30636278}, issn = {1939-9170}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; *Butterflies ; *Cardamine ; Climate Change ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Temperature-induced alterations in phenology and body size are the cumulative outcome of sequential effects impacting development and are universal responses to climate change. Most studies have so far focused on phenological responses to warming in multiple taxa across space and time, or the ontogenetic effects of temperature in the laboratory. I here complement this work by investigating shifts in phenology and body size (wing length) attributable to temperature changes operating over the entire lifespan of the univoltine orange-tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines in a single wild population over 14 generations. Phenology was affected by temperatures during three discrete periods in the year prior to emergence, corresponding to late larval/early pupal life, the onset of the chilling period required to break pupal diapause, and postdiapause pupal development prior to eclosion. Higher temperatures during late larval/early pupal life and postdiapause pupal development advanced the subsequent emergence of the butterflies, whereas higher temperatures at the onset of the chilling period retarded it. The synchronization of the butterflies' emergence schedule increased when pupae were exposed to milder midwinter temperatures. Wing length increased with warmer temperatures at distinct points in the early and midpupal periods; such direct effects of temperature on body size could complement season length effects in explaining the reversal of the temperature-size rule in univoltine insects. The periods during which temperature affected the phenology of the butterfly only partially overlapped those affecting the first flowering date of its host plants lady's smock (Cardamine pratensis) and garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata). Observed thermal effects on flowering time, emergence timing, and emergence synchronization indicate that phenological convergence as well as phenological mismatching could affect host-plant availability and diet breadth; thermal effects on body size imply that important population-level processes could be impacted through correlated changes in fecundity and dispersal rate. In general, the combined effects of phenological and ontogenetic responses to temperature changes across the whole lifespan will likely be important in modeling the demographic responses of interacting species to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30635682, year = {2019}, author = {Xu, Y and Bosch, DJ and Wagena, MB and Collick, AS and Easton, ZM}, title = {Meeting Water Quality Goals by Spatial Targeting of Best Management Practices under Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {173-184}, pmid = {30635682}, issn = {1432-1009}, support = {CBET-1360280//National Science Foundation/International ; VA-135911//National Institute of Food and Agriculture/International ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Goals ; Nitrogen ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Agricultural production is a major source of nonpoint source pollution contributing 44% of total nitrogen (N) discharged to the Chesapeake Bay. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) established the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program to control this problem. For the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the TMDL program requires that nitrogen loadings be reduced by 25% by 2025. Climate change may affect the cost of achieving such reductions. Thus, it is necessary to develop cost-effective strategies to meet water quality goals under climate change. We investigate landscape targeting of best management practices (BMPs) based on topographic index (TI) to determine how targeting would affect costs of meeting N loading goals for Mahantango watershed, PA. We use the results from two climate models, CRCM and WRFG, and the mean of the ensemble of seven climate models (Ensemble Mean) to estimate expected climate changes and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model to predict crop yields and N export. Costs of targeting and uniform placement of BMPs across the entire study area (423 ha) were compared under historical and future climate scenarios. Targeting BMP placement based on TI classes reduces costs for achieving water quality goals relative to uniform placement strategies under historical and future conditions. Compared with uniform placement, targeting methods reduce costs by 30, 34, and 27% under historical climate as estimated by the Ensemble Mean, CRCM and WRFG, respectively, and by 37, 43, and 33% under the corresponding estimates of future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30635138, year = {2019}, author = {Walsh, BS and Parratt, SR and Hoffmann, AA and Atkinson, D and Snook, RR and Bretman, A and Price, TAR}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {249-259}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2018.12.002}, pmid = {30635138}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Fertility ; Fungi/*physiology ; Global Warming ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Invertebrates/*physiology ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Vertebrates/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Rising global temperatures are threatening biodiversity. Studies on the impact of temperature on natural populations usually use lethal or viability thresholds, termed the 'critical thermal limit' (CTL). However, this overlooks important sublethal impacts of temperature that could affect species' persistence. Here we discuss a critical but overlooked trait: fertility, which can deteriorate at temperatures less severe than an organism's lethal limit. We argue that studies examining the ecological and evolutionary impacts of climate change should consider the 'thermal fertility limit' (TFL) of species; we propose that a framework for the design of TFL studies across taxa be developed. Given the importance of fertility for population persistence, understanding how climate change affects TFLs is vital for the assessment of future biodiversity impacts.}, }
@article {pmid30634954, year = {2019}, author = {Shezi, B and Mathee, A and Siziba, W and Street, RA and Naicker, N and Kunene, Z and Wright, CY}, title = {Environmental health practitioners potentially play a key role in helping communities adapt to climate change.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {54}, pmid = {30634954}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Academies and Institutes ; Adult ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; Budgets ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Demography ; *Environmental Health ; Female ; Health Personnel/education ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Policy ; *Population Health ; Poverty ; Residence Characteristics ; South Africa ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Vulnerable population groups in South Africa, especially those living in poverty, young children, women, the elderly and people with pre-existing diseases, are susceptible to new or exacerbated health threats resulting from climate change. Environmental Health Practitioners (EHPs) can play an important role in helping communities adapt to climate change health impacts, however, effective coordination of this requires further understanding of their roles in implementing climate change-related adaptation actions in communities.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional survey using convenience sampling was undertaken at the January 2017 conference for EHPs hosted by the South African Institute of Environmental Health in Cape Town. All EHPs who attended the conference were invited to complete a study questionnaire that requested information on participant demographics, as well as climate change related-knowledge, practices and perceptions.<br><br>RESULTS: Majority of participating EHPs (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;48; 72.8%) had received formal or informal training on climate change and health. Thirty-nine percent of EHPs indicated that they had a climate change and health-related committee / working group in their department, a policy or strategy (41.0%) and budget allocated for climate change and health-related work (51.5%). A total of 33.3% had participated in climate change-related projects. Majority (62.2%) of EHPs believed that they should play a supportive role in addressing climate change while 37.8% believed that EHPs should play a leading role.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Recognising the need for raising awareness about climate change adaptation as well as implementing appropriate interventions to combat climate-related ill health effects, especially among vulnerable groups, EHPs are well-placed to adopt significant roles in helping communities to adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30632035, year = {2019}, author = {Ullah, A and Ahmad, I and Ahmad, A and Khaliq, T and Saeed, U and M Habib-Ur-Rahman,  and Hussain, J and Ullah, S and Hoogenboom, G}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on pearl millet under arid and semi-arid environments using CSM-CERES-Millet model.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {6745-6757}, pmid = {30632035}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; Edible Grain ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Millets/*growth &amp; development ; *Models, Chemical ; Pakistan ; Pennisetum ; }, abstract = {Climate change adversely affects food security all over the world, especially in developing countries where the increasing population is confronting food insecurity and malnutrition. Crop models can assist stakeholders for assessment of climate change in current and future agricultural production systems. The aim of this study was to use of system analysis approach through CSM-CERES-Millet model to quantify climate change and its impact on pearl millet under arid and semi-arid climatic conditions of Punjab, Pakistan. Calibration and evaluation of CERES-Millet were performed with the field observations for pearl millet hybrid 86M86. Mid-century (2040-2069) climate change scenarios for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were generated based on an ensemble of selected five general circulation models (GCMs). The model was calibrated with optimum treatment (15-cm plant spacing and 200 kg N ha[-1]) using field observations on phenology, growth and grain yield. Thereafter, pearl millet cultivar was evaluated with remaining treatments of plant spacing and nitrogen during 2015 and 2016 in Faisalabad and Layyah. The CERES-Millet model was calibrated very well and predicted the grain yield with 1.14% error. Model valuation results showed that there was a close agreement between the observed and simulated values of grain yield with RMSE ranging from 172 to 193 kg ha[-1]. The results of future climate scenarios revealed that there would be an increase in Tmin (2.8 °C and 2.9 °C, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment) and Tmax (2.5 °C and 2.7 °C, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment) under RCP4.5. For RCP8.5, there would be an increase of 4 °C in Tmin for the semi-arid and arid environment and an increase of 3.7 °C and 3.9 °C in Tmax, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment. The impacts of climate changes showed that pearl millet yield would be reduced by 7 to 10% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in Faisalabad and 10 to 13% in Layyah under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for mid-century. So, CSM-CERES-Millet is a useful tool in assessing the climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid30631162, year = {2019}, author = {Searchinger, TD and Wirsenius, S and Beringer, T and Dumas, P}, title = {Publisher Correction: Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7740}, pages = {E9}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0863-y}, pmid = {30631162}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {In this Letter, the PANGAEA repository was referred to incorrectly in the 'Code availability' and 'Data availability' sections of Methods: the link should be https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.893761 instead of https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.877266 . In addition, the sentence, "However, the more commonly used system 2 (75 kg ha[-1] yr[-1]) generates roughly the same benefits as system 1…" should read, "However, the more commonly used system 2 (75 kg ha[-1] yr[-1]) generates roughly the same benefits as sugarcane ethanol…" These errors have been corrected in the online versions of the Letter.}, }
@article {pmid30630932, year = {2019}, author = {Lézine, AM and Izumi, K and Kageyama, M and Achoundong, G}, title = {A 90,000-year record of Afromontane forest responses to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {363}, number = {6423}, pages = {177-181}, doi = {10.1126/science.aav6821}, pmid = {30630932}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Cameroon ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Lakes ; Paleontology ; Pollen/classification ; Trees/classification ; }, abstract = {Pollen records from African highlands are scarce; hence, the paleoecology of the Afromontane forest and its responses to glacial cycles are poorly known. Lake Bambili (Cameroon) provides a record of vegetation changes in the tropical mountains of Africa over the past 90,000 years, with high temporal resolution. Pollen data and biome reconstructions show a diverging response of forests to climate changes; the upper tree line was extremely unstable, shifting substantially in response to glacial-interglacial climate alternation, whereas the transition between the montane and lowland forests remained remarkably stable. Such ecological instability may have had a critical influence on species richness in the Afromontane forests.}, }
@article {pmid30629690, year = {2019}, author = {Blennow, K and Persson, E and Persson, J}, title = {Are values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place the values most vulnerable to climate change?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e0210426}, pmid = {30629690}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Community-Institutional Relations ; *Culture ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Social Identification ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {Values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place have sometimes been downplayed in the climate change discourse. However, they have been suggested to be not only important to citizens but the values most vulnerable to climate change. Here we test four empirical consequences of the suggestion: (i) at least 50% of the locations citizens' consider to be the most important locations in their municipality are chosen because they represent these values, (ii) locations representing these values have a high probability of being damaged by climate change induced sea level rise, (iii) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe in the local effects of climate change, and (iv) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe that they have experienced the effects of climate change. The tests were made using survey data collected in 2014 from 326 citizens owning property in Höganäs municipality, Sweden, and included values elicited using a new methodology separating instrumental values from end values, and using the former (which strictly speaking should be seen as estimates of usefulness rather than as aims in themselves) as stepping stones to pinpoint the latter, that represent the true interests of the respondents. The results provide the first evidence that, albeit frequent, values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place are not the values most vulnerable to climate change. This in turn indicates a need to further investigate the vulnerability of these values to climate change, using a methodology that clearly distinguishes between instrumental and end values.}, }
@article {pmid30627998, year = {2019}, author = {Gul, F and Jan, D and Ashfaq, M}, title = {Assessing the socio-economic impact of climate change on wheat production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {6576-6585}, pmid = {30627998}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Forecasting ; Income ; Pakistan ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Triticum/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {This study involves the climate change impact assessment of wheat producers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. An extensive farm survey of 150 farms was designed. From study area, three districts, namely, Chitral, D.I. Khan, and Peshawar, were selected through multistage sampling process. Yield simulation from Crop model DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfer) was used for socio-economic impact assessment. Future climate scenarios were generated by selecting five GCMs from latest CMIP5 family with two RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, at two carbon concentrations of 499 ppm and 571 ppm, respectively. Yield simulations were analyzed for each GCM. Results of crop model revealed that wheat yield will increase in district Chitral, while in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, yields would be reduced due to climate change. For socio-economic impact assessment, TOA-MD (Trade-Off Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment) version 6 was used. Climate change impacts on poverty, net farm returns, and per capita income were calculated for different scenarios. The analysis was carried out on per-farm basis. The economic model results revealed that climate change has negative impact on wheat producers in D.I. Khan and Peshawar while making wheat producers better off in Chitral. The number of losers ranged from 54 to 66.21% and 50 to 61.99% in D.I. Khan and Peshawar, respectively. Losers are the farmers who would be economically worse off under perturbed climate. With current climate, the observed poverty rate would be 34 to 49 in D.I. Khan while 21.26 to 34.03 in Peshawar. The study recommended need for adaptation strategies to overcome the vulnerabilities of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30625666, year = {2019}, author = {Zhao, CS and Yang, Y and Yang, ST and Xiang, H and Zhang, Y and Wang, ZY and Chen, X and Mitrovic, SM}, title = {Predicting future river health in a minimally influenced mountainous area under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {656}, number = {}, pages = {1373-1385}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.430}, pmid = {30625666}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {It has been shown that climate change impacts the overall health of a river's ecosystem. Although predicting river health under climate change would be useful for stakeholders to adapt to the change and better conserve river health, little research on this topic exists. This paper presents a methodology predicting river health under different climate change scenarios. First, a multi-source, distributed, time-variant gain hydrological model (MS-DTVGM) was used to predict the runoff from a mountainous river in eastern China using the data from three existing IPCC5 climate change models (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.4). Next, a model was developed to predict the river's water quality under these scenarios. Finally, a multidimensional response model utilizing hydrology, water quality, and biology was used to predict the river's biological status and ascertain the impact of climate change on its overall health. The river is in a mountainous area near Jinan City, one of China's first "pilot" cities recognized as a "healthy water ecological community." Our results predict that the overall health of the Yufu River, which is minimally influenced by human activities, will improve by 2030 due to the increased river flow due to an increase in rainfall frequency and subsequent peak runoff. However, the total nitrogen concentration is predicted to increase, which is a potential eutrophication risk. Therefore, effective control of nitrogen pollutants entering the river will be necessary. The increase in flow velocity (the annual average increase is ~0.5 m/s) is favorable for fish reproduction. Our methods and results will provide scientific guidance for policy makers and river managers and will help people to better understand how global climate change impacts river health.}, }
@article {pmid30621785, year = {2019}, author = {Hertig, E}, title = {Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {18}, pmid = {30621785}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Anopheles/parasitology/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Mediterranean Region/epidemiology ; Mosquito Vectors/parasitology/*physiology ; Regression Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the scope of climate change the possible recurrence and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases poses a major concern. The occurrence of vector competent Anopheles species as well as favorable climatic conditions may lead to the re-emergence of autochthonous malaria in Europe and the Mediterranean area. However, high-resolution assessments of possible changes of Anopheles vector distributions and of potential malaria transmission stability in the European-Mediterranean area under changing climatic conditions during the course of the 21st century are not available yet.<br><br>METHODS: Boosted Regression Trees are applied to relate climate variables and land cover classes to vector occurrences. Changes in future vector distributions and potential malaria transmission stability due to climate change are assessed using state-of-the art regional climate model simulations.<br><br>RESULTS: Distinct changes in the distributions of the dominant vectors of human malaria are to be expected under climate change. In general, temperature and precipitation changes will lead to a northward spread of the occurrences of Anopheles vectors. Yet, for some Mediterranean areas, occurrence probabilities may decline.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Potential malaria transmission stability is increased in areas where the climatic changes favor vector occurrences as well as significantly impact the vectorial capacity. As a result, vector stability shows the highest increases between historical and future periods for the southern and south-eastern European areas. Anopheles atroparvus, the dominant vector in large parts of Europe, might play an important role with respect to changes of the potential transmission stability.}, }
@article {pmid30620924, year = {2019}, author = {Wu, C and Chen, Y and Peng, C and Li, Z and Hong, X}, title = {Modeling and estimating aboveground biomass of Dacrydium pierrei in China using machine learning with climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {234}, number = {}, pages = {167-179}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.12.090}, pmid = {30620924}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Accurate estimations of the aboveground biomass (AGB) of rare and endangered species are particularly important for protecting forest ecosystems and endangered species and for providing useful information to analyze the influence of past and future climate change on forest AGB. We investigated the feasibility of using three developed and two widely used models, including a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), a group method of data handling (GMDH), an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), an artificial neural network (ANN) and a support vector machine (SVM), to estimate the AGB of Dacrydium pierrei (D. pierrei) in natural forests of China. The results showed that these models could explain the changes in the AGB of the D. pierrei using a limited amount of meteorological data. The GRNN and ANN models are superior to the other models for estimating the AGB of D. pierrei. The GMDH model consistently produced comparatively poor estimates of the AGB. Three climate scenarios, including the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, were compared with the climate situation of 2013-2017. Under these scenarios, the AGB of D. pierrei females with the same diameter at breast height (DBH) would increase by 13.0 ± 31.4% (mean ± standard deviation), 16.6 ± 30.7%, and 18.5 ± 30.9% during 2041-2060 and 15.6 ± 32.1%, 21.2 ± 33.2%, and 24.8 ± 32.7% during 2061-2080; the AGB of males would increase by 16.3 ± 32.3%, 21.7 ± 32.5%, and 22.9 ± 32.6% during 2041-2060 and 22.3 ± 30.8%, 27.2 ± 31.8%, and 30.1 ± 34.4% during 2061-2080. The R[2] values of all models range from 0.82 to 0.95. In conclusion, this study suggests that these advanced models are recommended to estimate the AGB of forests, and the AGB of forests would increase in 2041-2080 under future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30619552, year = {2018}, author = {Buckley, LB and Khaliq, I and Swanson, DL and Hof, C}, title = {Does metabolism constrain bird and mammal ranges and predict shifts in response to climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {24}, pages = {12375-12385}, pmid = {30619552}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Mechanistic approaches for predicting the ranges of endotherms are needed to forecast their responses to environmental change. We test whether physiological constraints on maximum metabolic rate and the factor by which endotherms can elevate their metabolism (metabolic expansibility) influence cold range limits for mammal and bird species. We examine metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary (MECRB) and whether species' traits can predict variability in MECRB and then use MECRB as an initial approach to project range shifts for 210 mammal and 61 bird species. We find evidence for metabolic constraints: the distributions of metabolic expansibility at the cold range boundary peak at similar values for birds (2.7) and mammals (3.2). The right skewed distributions suggest some species have adapted to elevate or evade metabolic constraints. Mammals exhibit greater skew than birds, consistent with their diverse thermoregulatory adaptations and behaviors. Mammal and bird species that are small and occupy low trophic levels exhibit high levels of MECRB. Mammals with high MECRB tend to hibernate or use torpor. Predicted metabolic rates at the cold range boundaries represent large energetic expenditures (>50% of maximum metabolic rates). We project species to shift their cold range boundaries poleward by an average of 3.9° latitude by 2070 if metabolic constraints remain constant. Our analysis suggests that metabolic constraints provide a viable mechanism for initial projections of the cold range boundaries for endotherms. However, errors and approximations in estimating metabolic constraints (e.g., acclimation responses) and evasion of these constraints (e.g., torpor/hibernation, microclimate selection) highlight the need for more detailed, taxa-specific mechanistic models. Even coarse considerations of metabolism will likely lead to improved predictions over exclusively considering thermal tolerance for endotherms.}, }
@article {pmid30614147, year = {2019}, author = {Sun, Y and Xie, S and Zhao, S}, title = {Valuing urban green spaces in mitigating climate change: A city-wide estimate of aboveground carbon stored in urban green spaces of China's Capital.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {5}, pages = {1717-1732}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14566}, pmid = {30614147}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Beijing ; Carbon/analysis ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environment Design ; Environmental Monitoring ; Trees/physiology ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Urban green spaces provide manifold environmental benefits and promote human well-being. Unfortunately, these services are largely undervalued, and the potential of urban areas themselves to mitigate future climate change has received little attention. In this study, we quantified and mapped city-wide aboveground carbon storage of urban green spaces in China's capital, Beijing, using field survey data of diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height from 326 field survey plots, combined with satellite-derived vegetation index at a fine resolution of 6 m. We estimated the total amount of carbon stored in the urban green spaces to be 956.3 Gg (1 Gg = 10[9] g) in 2014. There existed great spatial heterogeneity in vegetation carbon density varying from 0 to 68.1 Mg C ha[-1] , with an average density of 7.8 Mg C ha[-1] . As expected, carbon density tended to decrease with urban development intensity (UDI). Likely being affected by vegetation cover proportion and configuration of green space patches, large differences were presented between the 95th and 5th quantile carbon density for each UDI bin, showing great potential for carbon sequestration. However, the interquartile range of carbon density narrowed drastically when UDI reached 60%, signifying a threshold for greatly reduced carbon sequestration potentials for higher UDI. These findings suggested that urban green spaces have great potential to make contribution to mitigating against future climate change if we plan and design urban green spaces following the trajectory of high carbon density, but we should be aware that such potential will be very limited when the urban development reaches certain intensity threshold.}, }
@article {pmid30614129, year = {2019}, author = {Spalink, D and MacKay, R and Sytsma, KJ}, title = {Phylogeography, population genetics and distribution modelling reveal vulnerability of Scirpus longii (Cyperaceae) and the Atlantic Coastal Plain Flora to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {28}, number = {8}, pages = {2046-2061}, doi = {10.1111/mec.15006}, pmid = {30614129}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {DDIG 1311153//National Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cyperaceae/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation/genetics ; *Genetics, Population ; Genotype ; Haplotypes/genetics ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; *Phylogeography ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {A proactive approach to conservation must be predictive, anticipating how habitats will change and which species are likely to decline or prosper. We use composite species distribution modelling to identify suitable habitats for 18 members of the North American Atlantic Coastal Plain Flora (ACPF) since the Last Glacial Maximum and project these into the future. We then use Scirpus longii (Cyperaceae), a globally imperiled ACPF sedge with many of the characteristics of extinction vulnerability, as a case study. We integrate phylogeographical and population genetic analyses and species distribution modelling to develop a broad view of its current condition and prognosis for conservation. We use genotyping-by-sequencing to characterize the genomes of 142 S. longii individuals from 20 populations distributed throughout its range (New Jersey to Nova Scotia). We measure the distribution of genetic diversity in the species and reconstruct its phylogeographical history using the snapp and rase models. Extant populations of S. longii originated from a single refugium south of the Laurentide ice sheet around 25 ka. The genetic diversity of S. longii is exceedingly low, populations exhibit little genetic structure and the species is slightly inbred. Projected climate scenarios indicate that nearly half of extant populations of S. longii will be exposed to unsuitable climate by 2070. Similar changes in suitable habitat will occur for many other northern ACPF species-centres of diversity will shift northward and Nova Scotia may become the last refuges for those species not extinguished.}, }
@article {pmid30613399, year = {2018}, author = {Cook, CJ and Burness, G and Wilson, CC}, title = {Metabolic rates of embryos and alevin from a cold-adapted salmonid differ with temperature, population and family of origin: implications for coping with climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {cox076}, pmid = {30613399}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Early developmental stages of cold-adapted ectotherms such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) are at higher risk of mortality with increasing water temperatures. To determine the amount of variation present in early life, which may allow for potential adaptation to increasing temperature, we examined the routine metabolic rates (RMR) of wild-origin brook trout embryos and alevins reared at normal (5°C) and elevated (9°C) temperatures. The experiment was structured to examine variation in RMR within and among several levels of biological organization (family, population and ancestral type (native vs. mixed ancestry)). As expected, family and temperature variables were most important for predicting RMR and body mass, although population-level differences also existed when family was excluded for more detailed analysis. Additionally, body mass strongly influenced RMR at all life stages except for eyed embryos. When family identity was removed from the analysis, population became the most significant variable. Variation in RMR and mass within and among populations may indicate existing adaptive potential within and among brook trout populations to respond to predicted warming under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30612331, year = {2019}, author = {Ali, SHB and Shafqat, MN and Eqani, SAMAS and Shah, STA}, title = {Trends of climate change in the upper Indus basin region, Pakistan: implications for cryosphere.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {191}, number = {2}, pages = {51}, pmid = {30612331}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Pakistan ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The Indus River, the lifeline of Pakistan's economy and its tributaries, derives most of water flow from the upper Indus basin comprised of Karakorum, Himalaya, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, thus making this area important in climate change studies. We analyzed the records of climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity (RH) from two weather stations (Gilgit and Skardu) of upper Indus basin region from 1953 to 2006. To observe the trends of climate change, the selected time was divided into two temporal half periods consisting of 27 years each (1953-1979 and 1980-2006). The overall mean temperature (OMT) was decreased by - 0.137 °C in Gilgit, while an increase of 0.63 °C was observed in Skardu during the later period compared to the previous one. The mean minimum temperature (MMT) was found to decrease while mean maximum temperature (MXT) showed non-significant changes during the summer at both locations. However, there was an evidence of spring and winter warming at both locations due to increase in the MXT. The precipitation data showed large interannual variation at both locations. Significant increases in the morning relative humidity (RH) were observed during summer and autumn months at Skardu and throughout the year at Gilgit, while the evening RH increased during the same seasons at both stations. Significant increase in MXT and OMT during spring and winter months at higher elevation (Skardu) may have serious implications for the deposition and melting of seasonal snowpack with impacts on local livelihoods and river flow.}, }
@article {pmid30610180, year = {2019}, author = {Miller-Rushing, AJ and Gallinat, AS and Primack, RB}, title = {Creative citizen science illuminates complex ecological responses to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {3}, pages = {720-722}, pmid = {30610180}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Biological Mimicry ; Climate Change ; Ecology ; }, }
@article {pmid30609226, year = {2019}, author = {Penteriani, V and Zarzo-Arias, A and Novo-Fernández, A and Bombieri, G and López-Sánchez, CA}, title = {Responses of an endangered brown bear population to climate change based on predictable food resource and shelter alterations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {1133-1151}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14564}, pmid = {30609226}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Endangered Species ; Feeding Behavior/physiology ; Forests ; Spain ; Ursidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The survival of an increasing number of species is threatened by climate change: 20%-30% of plants and animals seem to be at risk of range shift or extinction if global warming reaches levels projected to occur by the end of this century. Plant range shifts may determine whether animal species that rely on plant availability for food and shelter will be affected by new patterns of plant occupancy and availability. Brown bears in temperate forested habitats mostly forage on plants and it may be expected that climate change will affect the viability of the endangered populations of southern Europe. Here, we assess the potential impact of climate change on seven plants that represent the main food resources and shelter for the endangered population of brown bears in the Cantabrian Mountains (Spain). Our simulations suggest that the geographic range of these plants might be altered under future climate warming, with most bear resources reducing their range. As a consequence, this brown bear population is expected to decline drastically in the next 50 years. Range shifts of brown bear are also expected to displace individuals from mountainous areas towards more humanized ones, where we can expect an increase in conflicts and bear mortality rates. Additional negative effects might include: (a) a tendency to a more carnivorous diet, which would increase conflicts with cattle farmers; (b) limited fat storage before hibernation due to the reduction of oak forests; (c) increased intraspecific competition with other acorn consumers, that is, wild ungulates and free-ranging livestock; and (d) larger displacements between seasons to find main trophic resources. The magnitude of the changes projected by our models emphasizes that conservation practices focused only on bears may not be appropriate and thus we need more dynamic conservation planning aimed at reducing the impact of climate change in forested landscapes.}, }
@article {pmid30608960, year = {2019}, author = {Selm, KR and Peterson, MN and Hess, GR and Beck, SM and McHale, MR}, title = {Educational attainment predicts negative perceptions women have of their own climate change knowledge.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e0210149}, pmid = {30608960}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Climate Change ; Culture ; *Educational Status ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Minority Groups/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; North Carolina ; *Self Concept ; Sex Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Stereotyped Behavior ; Surveys and Questionnaires/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Education may encourage personal and collective responses to climate change, but climate education has proven surprisingly difficult and complex. Self-perception of knowledge and intelligence represent one factor that may impact willingness to learn about climate change. We explored this possibility with a case study in Raleigh, North Carolina in 2015 (n = 200). Our goal was to test how gender and ethnicity influenced perceptions people had of their own climate change knowledge. Survey respondents were asked how strongly they agreed with the statement "I feel knowledgeable about climate change" (1 = strongly disagree, and 5 = strongly agree). Our survey instrument also included demographic questions about race, age, income, gender, and education, as well as respondent's experience with natural disasters and drought. We observed an interaction between education and gender where women's self-perceived knowledge was higher than men among people with low levels of educational attainment, but was higher for men than women among people with high levels of educational attainment. In addition, minority respondents self-reported lower perceived climate change knowledge than white respondents, regardless of educational attainment. This study enhances our understanding of the gender gap in self-perceptions of climate knowledge by suggesting it is contingent on educational attainment. This could be the result of stereotype-threat experienced by women and minorities, and exacerbated by educational systems. Because people who question their knowledge are often more able to learn, particularly in ideologically charged contexts, highly educated women and minorities may be more successful learning about climate change than white men.}, }
@article {pmid30606749, year = {2019}, author = {Weigmann, K}, title = {Fixing carbon: To alleviate climate change, scientists are exploring ways to harness nature's ability to capture CO2 from the atmosphere.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {30606749}, issn = {1469-3178}, mesh = {*Atmosphere ; Carbon/*chemistry/metabolism ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Scientists are exploring various strategies to make photosynthesis more efficient with the aim of sequestering CO 2 from the atmosphere and lessening climate change. [Image: see text]}, }
@article {pmid30606474, year = {2019}, author = {Tong, MX and Hansen, A and Hanson-Easey, S and Xiang, J and Cameron, S and Liu, Q and Liu, X and Sun, Y and Weinstein, P and Han, GS and Williams, C and Mahmood, A and Bi, P}, title = {Dengue control in the context of climate change: Views from health professionals in different geographic regions of China.}, journal = {Journal of infection and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {388-394}, doi = {10.1016/j.jiph.2018.12.010}, pmid = {30606474}, issn = {1876-035X}, mesh = {Adult ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Demography ; Dengue/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is a significant climate-sensitive disease. Public health professionals play an important role in prevention and control of the disease. This study aimed to explore dengue control and prevention in the context of climate change in China.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 630 public health professionals in 2015. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were performed.<br><br>RESULTS: More than 80% of participants from southwest and central China believed climate change would affect dengue. However, participants from northeast China were less likely to believe so (65%). Sixty-nine percent of participants in Yunnan perceived that dengue had emerged/re-emerged in recent years, compared with 40.6% in Henan and 23.8% in Liaoning. Less than 60% of participants thought current prevention and control programs had been effective. Participants believed mosquitoes in high abundance, imported cases and climate change were main risk factors for dengue in China.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There were varying views of dengue in China. Professionals in areas susceptible to dengue were more likely to be concerned about climate change and dengue. Current prevention and control strategies need to be improved. Providing more information for staff in lower levels of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may help in containing a possible increase of dengue.}, }
@article {pmid30606097, year = {2019}, author = {Bruno, JF and Côté, IM and Toth, LT}, title = {Climate Change, Coral Loss, and the Curious Case of the Parrotfish Paradigm: Why Don't Marine Protected Areas Improve Reef Resilience?.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {307-334}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-010318-095300}, pmid = {30606097}, issn = {1941-0611}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Coral Reefs ; Fisheries ; Fishes/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Scientists have advocated for local interventions, such as creating marine protected areas and implementing fishery restrictions, as ways to mitigate local stressors to limit the effects of climate change on reef-building corals. However, in a literature review, we find little empirical support for the notion of managed resilience. We outline some reasons for why marine protected areas and the protection of herbivorous fish (especially parrotfish) have had little effect on coral resilience. One key explanation is that the impacts of local stressors (e.g., pollution and fishing) are often swamped by the much greater effect of ocean warming on corals. Another is the sheer complexity (including numerous context dependencies) of the five cascading links assumed by the managed-resilience hypothesis. If reefs cannot be saved by local actions alone, then it is time to face reef degradation head-on, by directly addressing anthropogenic climate change-the root cause of global coral decline.}, }
@article {pmid30605957, year = {2019}, author = {Shi, XM}, title = {[Air pollution, climate change and health: from evidence to action].}, journal = {Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine]}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2019.01.001}, pmid = {30605957}, issn = {0253-9624}, support = {2016YFC0206500//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; }, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; China ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Global Health ; Humans ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {The adverse effects of air pollution and climate change on human health have already been a major global environmental issue, and the challenges in China are even more severe. In this issue, titled "Air Pollution Climate, Change and Health" , we present a series of articles that reviewed and analyzed the impact of air pollution and climate change on human health systematically, and propose recommendations for the next phase of research. Meanwhile, we introduce the latest achievements of the World Health Organization (WHO) in coping with air pollution and health, summarize the first WHO Global Conference on Air Pollution and Health, and provide evidence-based guidelines for control and prevention of climate change and air pollution in China.}, }
@article {pmid30604087, year = {2019}, author = {Denley, D and Metaxas, A and Fennel, K}, title = {Community composition influences the population growth and ecological impact of invasive species in response to climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {189}, number = {2}, pages = {537-548}, pmid = {30604087}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {RGPIN-2016-04878//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Introduced Species ; *Kelp ; Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Predicting long-term impacts of introduced species is challenging, since stressors related to global change can influence species-community interactions by affecting both demographic rates of invasive species and the structure of the invaded ecosystems. Invasive species can alter ecosystem structure over time, further complicating interactions between invasive species and invaded communities in response to additional stressors. Few studies have considered how cumulative impacts of species invasion and global change on the structure of invaded ecosystems may influence persistence and population growth of introduced species. Here, we present an empirically based population model for an invasive epiphytic bryozoan that can dramatically alter the structure of its invaded kelp bed ecosystems. We use this model to predict the response of invasive species to climate change and associated changes in the invaded community. Population growth of the bryozoan increased under near-future projections of increasing ocean temperature; however, the magnitude of population growth depended on the community composition of invaded kelp beds. Our results suggest that, in some cases, indirect effects of climate change mediated through changes to the structure of the invaded habitat can modulate direct effects of climate change on invasive species, with consequences for their long-term ecological impact. Our findings have important implications for management of invasive species, as modifying invaded habitats at local to regional scales may be more logistically feasible than addressing stressors related to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30602746, year = {2019}, author = {Newman, J}, title = {Islands' institutes band together against climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {565}, number = {7737}, pages = {25}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-07873-1}, pmid = {30602746}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Disaster Planning/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*organization &amp; administration/trends ; Disasters/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fiji ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; India ; *Islands ; New Zealand ; Seawater/analysis ; West Indies ; }, }
@article {pmid30600449, year = {2020}, author = {Wang, S and Jiang, J and Zhou, Y and Li, J and Zhao, D and Lin, S}, title = {Climate-change information, health-risk perception and residents' environmental complaint behavior: an empirical study in China.}, journal = {Environmental geochemistry and health}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {719-732}, pmid = {30600449}, issn = {1573-2983}, support = {71601174//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71804174//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 71571172//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2018M632555//China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/ ; 16CJL020//National Social Science Foundation of China/ ; 2017R0034//Fujian Fund of Soft Science Research/ ; None//Program for New Century Excellent Talents in Fujian Province University/ ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Attitude ; China ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Policy ; Female ; Health Risk Behaviors ; Humans ; Intention ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Psychological ; Motivation ; Perception ; Reproducibility of Results ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Motivating residents to deliver environmental complaints is beneficial for environmental authorities to help them manage environmental issues and alleviate the adverse effects caused by climate change. The major aim of the present study is to understand how climate-change information and residents' health-risk perceptions (both physical and mental dimensions) affect residents' environmental complaint behavior. The research framework was developed according to planned behavior theory, risk perception behavior and information behavior models. This framework was empirically assessed by employing questionnaire survey data gathered from 1273 respondents in China. The results indicate that climate-change information and residents' health-risk perceptions have all significantly positive effects on residents' attitudes toward environmental complaints and their intention to submit environmental complaints. Meanwhile, residents' health-risk perception is also positively affected by climate-change information. Mental health-risk perception plays a much stronger role in determining a residents' attitude and intention to submit an environmental complaint than does physical health-risk perception. Furthermore, attitude toward environmental complaint, perceived behavioral control and subjective norm all have significantly positive effects on a residents' intention to submit an environmental complaint. Additionally, this study also addresses the intention-behavior gap and suggests a positive relationship between intention and behavior. The present study may provide some practical implications to motivate residents to submit environmental complaints.}, }
@article {pmid30598797, year = {2018}, author = {Savva, I and Bennett, S and Roca, G and Jordà, G and Marbà, N}, title = {Thermal tolerance of Mediterranean marine macrophytes: Vulnerability to global warming.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {23}, pages = {12032-12043}, pmid = {30598797}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The Mediterranean Sea is warming at three times the rate of the global ocean raising concerns about the vulnerability of marine organisms to climate change. Macrophytes play a key role in coastal ecosystems, therefore predicting how warming will affect these key species is critical to understand the effects of climate change on Mediterranean coastal ecosystems. We measured the physiological performance of six dominant native Mediterranean macrophytes under ten temperature treatments ranging from 12 to 34°C to examine their thermal niche, and vulnerability to projected warming in the western Mediterranean up until 2100. Among the macrophytes tested, Cymodocea nodosa was the species with the highest thermal optima and it was beyond current summer temperature. Therefore, C. nodosa may benefit from projected warming over the coming century. The optimal temperature for growth of the other species (Posidonia oceanica, Cystoseira compressa, Padina pavonica, Caulerpa prolifera, and Halimeda tuna) was lower. Similarly, the species presented different upper lethal limits, spanning at least across 5.1°C between 28.9°C (P. oceanica) and >34°C (C. nodosa). Our results demonstrate the variable physiological responses of species within the same local community to temperature changes and highlight important potential differences in climate change vulnerability, among species within coastal marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30598784, year = {2018}, author = {Su, J and Aryal, A and Hegab, IM and Shrestha, UB and Coogan, SCP and Sathyakumar, S and Dalannast, M and Dou, Z and Suo, Y and Dabu, X and Fu, H and Wu, L and Ji, W}, title = {Decreasing brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {23}, pages = {11887-11899}, pmid = {30598784}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Around the world, climate change has impacted many species. In this study, we used bioclimatic variables and biophysical layers of Central Asia and the Asian Highlands combined with presence data of brown bear (Ursus arctos) to understand their current distribution and predict their future distribution under the current rate of climate change. Our bioclimatic model showed that the current suitable habitat of brown bear encompasses 3,430,493 km[2] in the study area, the majority of which (>65%) located in China. Our analyses demonstrated that suitable habitat will be reduced by 11% (378,861.30 km[2]) across Central Asia and the Asian Highlands by 2,050 due to climate change, predominantly (>90%) due to the changes in temperature and precipitation. The spatially averaged mean annual temperature of brown bear habitat is currently -1.2°C and predicted to increase to 1.6°C by 2,050. Mean annual precipitation in brown bear habitats is predicted to increase by 13% (from 406 to 459 mm) by 2,050. Such changes in two critical climatic variables may significantly affect the brown bear distribution, ethological repertoires, and physiological processes, which may increase their risk of extirpation in some areas. Approximately 32% (1,124,330 km[2]) of the total suitable habitat falls within protected areas, which was predicted to reduce to 1,103,912 km[2] (1.8% loss) by 2,050. Future loss of suitable habitats inside the protected areas may force brown bears to move outside the protected areas thereby increasing their risk of mortality. Therefore, more protected areas should be established in the suitable brown bear habitats in future to sustain populations in this region. Furthermore, development of corridors is needed to connect habitats between protected areas of different countries in Central Asia. Such practices will facilitate climate migration and connectivity among populations and movement between and within countries.}, }
@article {pmid30597870, year = {2018}, author = {Schnitter, R and Verret, M and Berry, P and Chung Tiam Fook, T and Hales, S and Lal, A and Edwards, S}, title = {An Assessment of Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation in Dominica.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {30597870}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Dominica/epidemiology ; Food Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology ; Humans ; Public Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {A climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessment was conducted in Dominica, a Caribbean small island developing state located in the Lesser Antilles. The assessment revealed that the country's population is already experiencing many impacts on health and health systems from climate variability and change. Infectious diseases as well as food and waterborne diseases pose continued threats as climate change may exacerbate the related health risks. Threats to food security were also identified, with particular concern for food production systems. The findings of the assessment included near-term and long-term adaptation options that can inform actions of health sector decision-makers in addressing health vulnerabilities and building resilience to climate change. Key challenges include the need for enhanced financial and human resources to build awareness of key health risks and increase adaptive capacity. Other small island developing states interested in pursuing a vulnerability and adaptation assessment may find this assessment approach, key findings, analysis, and lessons learned useful.}, }
@article {pmid30597712, year = {2019}, author = {Peterson, ML and Doak, DF and Morris, WF}, title = {Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {775-793}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14562}, pmid = {30597712}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Biological Variation, Population ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics/*trends ; Spatial Analysis ; }, abstract = {Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA.}, }
@article {pmid30594113, year = {2019}, author = {Puppim de Oliveira, JA}, title = {Intergovernmental relations for environmental governance: Cases of solid waste management and climate change in two Malaysian States.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {233}, number = {}, pages = {481-488}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.097}, pmid = {30594113}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Government ; Politics ; Solid Waste ; *Waste Management ; }, abstract = {Institutions for environmental governance evolve differently across sectors. They also vary in the same sector when governments at two levels (national and subnational) have different political alignments. As the policy environment becomes more complex, with global problems like climate change, and politics more dividing, better coordination among various levels of government is a tough governance challenge. Scholars and practitioners need to realize how best to build institutions to bridge the various levels of government in different political environments and environmental sectors. This research analyzes the influence of intergovernmental relations in two environmental sectors in two localities with contrasting political alignments between two levels of government. It draws lessons from solid waste management and climate policy in two Malaysian states (Johor and Penang). In an evolving State and new policy arenas, when formal institutions for intergovernmental relations may not be effectively in place, politics play an even larger role through the discretionary power of federal and subnational authorities. An open political process can help with the engagement of different political groups and civil society to bring legitimacy, resources and efficiency to environmental management, if it is done with robust intergovernmental institutions; otherwise, intergovernmental relations can also become a tool for zero-sum games, cronyism and patrimonialism, which can undermine policies, and result in inefficiencies and ineffectiveness in environmental management.}, }
@article {pmid30589982, year = {2019}, author = {Kissel, AM and Palen, WJ and Ryan, ME and Adams, MJ}, title = {Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {e01832}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1832}, pmid = {30589982}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//NPS George M. Wright Climate Change Youth Initiative Fellowship/International ; //North Coast and Cascades Science Learning Network/International ; //North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative/International ; //Northwest Climate Science Center/International ; //David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellows Program/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Seasons ; Snow ; Washington ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life-history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow-dominated to rain-dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post-metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species' life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage-based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed-specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λs) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84-1.13), but predict that λs will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.}, }
@article {pmid30587880, year = {2018}, author = {Ylä-Anttila, T and Vesa, J and Eranti, V and Kukkonen, A and Lehtimäki, T and Lonkila, M and Luhtakallio, E}, title = {Up with ecology, down with economy? The consolidation of the idea of climate change mitigation in the global public sphere.}, journal = {European journal of communication}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {587-603}, pmid = {30587880}, issn = {0267-3231}, abstract = {Building on theories of valuation and evaluation, we develop an analytical framework that outlines six elements of the process of consolidation of an idea in the public sphere. We then use the framework to analyse the process of consolidation of the idea of climate change mitigation between 1997 and 2013, focusing on the interplay between ecological and economic evaluations. Our content analysis of 1274 articles in leading newspapers in five countries around the globe shows that (1) ecological arguments increase over time, (2) economic arguments decrease over time, (3) the visibility of environmental nongovernmental organizations as carriers of ecological ideas increases over time, (4) the visibility of business actors correspondingly decreases, (5) ecological ideas are increasingly adopted by political and business elites and (6) a compromise emerges between ecological and economic evaluations, in the form of the argument that climate change mitigation boosts, rather than hinders economic growth.}, }
@article {pmid30587552, year = {2018}, author = {Fan, J and Meng, J and Ashkenazy, Y and Havlin, S and Schellnhuber, HJ}, title = {Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {52}, pages = {E12128-E12134}, pmid = {30587552}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Global Warming ; Ice Cover/*chemistry ; Models, Theoretical ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate warming, and they may have widespread and diverse effects on health, agriculture, economics, and political conflicts. Still, the detection and quantification of climate change, both in observations and climate models, constitute a main focus of the scientific community. Here, we develop an approach based on network and percolation frameworks to study the impacts of climate changes in the past decades using historical models and reanalysis records, and we analyze the expected upcoming impacts using various future global warming scenarios. We find an abrupt transition during the evolution of the climate network, indicating a consistent poleward expansion of the largest cluster that corresponds to the tropical area, as well as the weakening of the strength of links in the tropic. This is found both in the reanalysis data and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 21st century climate change simulations. The analysis is based on high-resolution surface (2 m) air temperature field records. We discuss the underlying mechanism for the observed expansion of the tropical cluster and associate it with changes in atmospheric circulation represented by the weakening and expansion of the Hadley cell. Our framework can also be useful for forecasting the extent of the tropical cluster to detect its influence on different areas in response to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid30584752, year = {2018}, author = {Xue, JY and Liu, GY}, title = {Urban energy water food land climate change nexus in the flow and policy perspective: A review.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {4226-4238}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201812.038}, pmid = {30584752}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Policy ; Food ; Urbanization/trends ; Water ; }, abstract = {Intricate associations exist between the internal elements of urban ecosystems, with the adjustment in one element can exert impacts of varying degrees on others. The rapid urbanization has brought numerous challenges on the urban sustainable development. To basically solve these problems, the nexus approach needs to be adopted. We clarified three application scenarios of nexus and their corresponding definitions. Meanwhile, the development of urban nexus theory was also provided. The analysis between any two characters among energy, water, food, land and climate change (EWFLC) systems was presented from the perspective of the physical nexus and policy effect nexus, respectively. From the perspective of the physical nexus, most the present stu-dies are concentrated on the urban scale, and aim at the direct nexus, lacking of indirect nexus reaches relatively. Most of the relationships between each two characters will have positive impacts on the society or economy. From the perspective of the policy effect nexus, current policies focused on the five systems are mostly oriented to directly solve problems of targeted system. The intermediate objectives of policy implementation are mostly quantifiable. There are generally multiple indicators of the policy effect evaluations. Furthermore, an analysis framework of urban EWFLC systems simultaneously combining physical and policy nexus was proposed in this study, which aimed to help make policy selections and realize urban sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid30584728, year = {2018}, author = {DU, YD and Shen, P and Wang, H and Tang, XR and Zhao, H}, title = {Impacts of climate change on climatic division for double cropping rice in Guangdong Pro-vince, China.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {4013-4021}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201812.041}, pmid = {30584728}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; *Oryza ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Based on the dataset of air temperature from 86 stations during 1961 to 2016, and DEM data derived from 1:250000 topographic maps, we analyzed the spatial-temporal changes of key climatic factors (safe period for double cropping rice, ≥10 ℃ active accumulated temperature) using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, and inverse distance weighted interpolation. The impacts of climate change on climatic division for double cropping rice was studied by combining with the changes of key climate factors for the periods of 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, before (1961-1997) and after (1998-2016) climatic mutation. The results showed that spatial distributions of safe period for double cropping rice and ≥10 ℃ active accumulated temperature were different from place to place in Guangdong. Generally, they were more or higher in south than in north part, in plain than in mountain regions. Under the background of global warming, the safe period for double cropping rice and ≥10 ℃ active accumulated tempera-ture showed a significantly increasing trend with the rate of 1.7 d and 43 ℃·d per decade, respectively. All climatic factor had mutation in the year of 1997. According to the climatic conditions of various maturing rice growth and development, climatic zoning for double cropping rice in Guangdong could be divided into three regions: early maturity with early maturity, early maturity with late maturity, late maturity with late maturity. Those regions were distributed in middle-subtropics of northern Guangdong, south-subtropics of middle Guangdong, and north-tropics of southern Guangdong, respectively. Due to the climate change, the area of late maturity with late maturity significantly increased, the area of early maturity with late maturity significantly decreased, and the area of early maturity with early maturity showed no significant change. Relative to that in 1961-1990, the areas of late maturity with late maturity in 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 increased 1.22&amp;times;10[6] hm[2] and 2.56&amp;times;10[6] hm[2], respectively, but the area of early maturity with late maturity decreased 1.13&amp;times;10[6] hm[2] and 2.56&amp;times;10[6] hm[2], respectively. The area of late maturity with late maturity was more than doubled, but that of early maturity with late maturity decreased about a half after 1997 than that before in Guangdong.}, }
@article {pmid30584107, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Pizer, WA and Wu, L}, title = {Climate change and residential electricity consumption in the Yangtze River Delta, China.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {116}, number = {2}, pages = {472-477}, pmid = {30584107}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Estimating the impact of climate change on energy use across the globe is essential for analysis of both mitigation and adaptation policies. Yet existing empirical estimates are concentrated in Western countries, especially the United States. We use daily data on household electricity consumption to estimate how electricity consumption would change in Shanghai in the context of climate change. For colder days <7 °C, a 1 °C increase in daily temperature reduces electricity consumption by 2.8%. On warm days >25 °C, a 1 °C increase in daily temperatures leads to a 14.5% increase in electricity consumption. As income increases, households' weather sensitivity remains the same for hotter days in the summer but increases during the winter. We use this estimated behavior in conjunction with a collection of downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to construct a relationship between future annual global mean surface temperature (GMST) changes and annual residential electricity consumption. We find that annual electricity consumption increases by 9.2% per +1 °C in annual GMST. In comparison, annual peak electricity use increases by as much as 36.1% per +1 °C in annual GMST. Although most accurate for Shanghai, our findings could be most credibly extended to the urban areas in the Yangtze River Delta, covering roughly one-fifth of China's urban population and one-fourth of the gross domestic product.}, }
@article {pmid30583170, year = {2019}, author = {Jeon, DJ and Ligaray, M and Kim, M and Kim, G and Lee, G and Pachepsky, YA and Cha, DH and Cho, KH}, title = {Evaluating the influence of climate change on the fate and transport of fecal coliform bacteria using the modified SWAT model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {753-762}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.213}, pmid = {30583170}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Bacteria/isolation &amp; purification ; *Bacterial Physiological Phenomena ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Feces/*microbiology ; Models, Biological ; Rain ; Republic of Korea ; Snow ; Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) contamination of natural waters is a serious public health issue. Therefore, understanding and anticipating the fate and transport of FCB are important for reducing the risk of contracting diseases. The objective of this study was to analyze the impacts of climate change on the fate and transport of FCB. We modified both the soil and the in-stream bacteria modules in the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model and verified the prediction accuracy of seasonal variability of FCB loads using observations. Forty bias-correcting GCM-RCM projections were applied in the modified SWAT model to examine various future climate conditions at the end of this century (2076-2100). Lastly, we also compared the variability of FCB loads under current and future weather conditions using multi-model ensemble simulations (MMES). The modified SWAT model yielded a satisfactory performance with regard to the seasonal variability of FCB amounts in the soil and FCB loading to water bodies. The modified SWAT model presented substantial proliferation of FCB in the soil (30.1%-147.5%) due to an increase in temperature (25.1%). Also, increase in precipitation (53.3%) led to an increase in FCB loads (96.0%-115.5%) from the soil to water body. In the in-stream environment, resuspension from the stream bed was the dominant process affecting the amount of FCB in stream. Therefore, the final FCB loads increased by 71.2% because of the growing peak channel velocity and volume of water used due to an increase in precipitation. Based on the results of MMES, we concluded that the level of FCB would increase simultaneously in the soil as well as in stream by the end of this century. This study will aid in understanding the future variability of FCB loads as well as in preparing an effective management plan for FCB levels in natural waters.}, }
@article {pmid30579964, year = {2019}, author = {Huo, D and Sun, L and Zhang, L and Ru, X and Liu, S and Yang, X and Yang, H}, title = {Global-warming-caused changes of temperature and oxygen alter the proteomic profile of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus.}, journal = {Journal of proteomics}, volume = {193}, number = {}, pages = {27-43}, doi = {10.1016/j.jprot.2018.12.020}, pmid = {30579964}, issn = {1876-7737}, mesh = {Animals ; *Gene Expression Regulation ; *Global Warming ; Proteome/*metabolism ; *Proteomics ; Sea Cucumbers/*metabolism ; *Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Multiple environmental stressors caused by global warming influence the regulation of proteins involved in various biological processes in aquatic organisms. As an important component of the marine ecosystem, sea cucumber is a suitable echinoderm species for researching stress responses. In this study, we have investigated the proteomic response of respiratory trees in the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus, challenged with environmental stresses by using the iTRAQ technique. Results showed that 262, 155 and 433 proteins were differentially regulated in response to heat, hypoxia, and heat plus hypoxia, respectively. Expression of key genes and proteins were measured by real-time PCR and western blot to validate the accuracy of the proteome files. Results showed that the interaction between these two stressors has an additive effect at the proteome level. Proteins involved in amino acid and carbohydrate metabolic processes were largely induced by heat while repressed by hypoxia. Exposure to multiple climate change stressors caused several proteins involved in lipid metabolic progress to be down-regulated and lipid catabolic processes were induced. Additionally, hypoxia and the combined stress induced proteins involved in iron homeostasis. ATP synthesis and gluconeogenesis were induced under heat and the combined stress, while ATP and glycogen synthesis were depressed under hypoxia. Proteins related with immune and defense response were largely induced and protein synthesis ability was depressed under all three stresses. Thus, sea cucumber may adopt different strategies to cope with varied environmental stress, and the situation in heat group is more similar with the combined treatment than hypoxia group. These proteomic changes in response to high-temperature and low-oxygen levels may provide insights into the defense strategies of sea cucumber in response to global climate changes. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY: The study focused on comparative quantitative proteomics on Apostichopus japonicus respiratory tree using iTRAQ in responses to multiple climate change stressors: heat, hypoxia and the combined stress. Data showed that A. japonicus can have an acute reaction in diverse biological pathways to both individual and interacting environmental stress, including substance metabolism, signal transduction, protein synthesis, immune response and energy production. Results indicated that sea cucumber adopted different strategies to cope with varied environmental stress, and the interaction between these two stressors has an additive effect at the proteome level. These results offer insight into the molecular regulation of A. japonicus to multiple environmental stress and reveal possible molecular events in sea cucumber under climate changes. The understanding of adaptive variation under global climate changes in aquatic organisms could be improved.}, }
@article {pmid30577126, year = {2019}, author = {Sapkota, TB and Vetter, SH and Jat, ML and Sirohi, S and Shirsath, PB and Singh, R and Jat, HS and Smith, P and Hillier, J and Stirling, CM}, title = {Cost-effective opportunities for climate change mitigation in Indian agriculture.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {655}, number = {}, pages = {1342-1354}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.225}, pmid = {30577126}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Long-term changes in average temperatures, precipitation, and climate variability threaten agricultural production, food security, and the livelihoods of farming communities globally. Whilst adaptation to climate change is necessary to ensure food security and protect livelihoods of poor farmers, mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can lessen the extent of climate change and future needs for adaptation. Many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate GHG emissions without compromising food production. India is the third largest GHG emitter in the world where agriculture is responsible for 18% of total national emissions. India has identified agriculture as one of the priority sectors for GHG emission reduction in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Identification of emission hotspots and cost-effective mitigation options in agriculture can inform the prioritisation of efforts to reduce emissions without compromising food and nutrition security. We adopted a bottom-up approach to analyse GHG emissions using large datasets of India's 'cost of cultivation survey' and the '19th livestock census' together with soil, climate and management data for each location. Mitigation measures and associated costs and benefits of adoption, derived from a variety of sources including the literature, stakeholder meetings and expert opinion, were presented in the form of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). We estimated that by 2030, business-as-usual GHG emissions from the agricultural sector in India would be 515 Megatonne CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) per year with a technical mitigation potential of 85.5 MtCO2e per year through adoption of various mitigation practices. About 80% of the technical mitigation potential could be achieved by adopting only cost-saving measures. Three mitigation options, i.e. efficient use of fertilizer, zero-tillage and rice-water management, could deliver more than 50% of the total technical abatement potential.}, }
@article {pmid30573804, year = {2018}, author = {Woesik, RV and Köksal, S and Ünal, A and Cacciapaglia, CW and Randall, CJ}, title = {Predicting coral dynamics through climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {17997}, pmid = {30573804}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {OCE-1657633//National Science Foundation (NSF)/International ; OCE-1657633//National Science Foundation (NSF)/International ; 1535007//National Science Foundation (NSF)/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa/classification/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Japan ; Population Dynamics ; Seawater/analysis ; Temperature ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {Thermal-stress events are changing the composition of many coral reefs worldwide. Yet, determining the rates of coral recovery and their long-term responses to increasing sea-surface temperatures is challenging. To do so, we first estimated coral recovery rates following past disturbances on reefs in southern Japan and Western Australia. Recovery rates varied between regions, with the reefs in southern Japan showing more rapid recovery rates (intrinsic rate of increase, r = 0.38 year[-1]) than reefs in Western Australia (r = 0.17 year[-1]). Second, we input these recovery rates into a novel, nonlinear hybrid-stochastic-dynamical system to predict the responses of Indo-Pacific coral populations to complex inter-annual temperature cycles into the year 2100. The coral recovery rates were overlaid on background increases in global sea-surface temperatures, under three different climate-change scenarios. The models predicted rapid recovery at both localities with the infrequent and low-magnitude temperature anomalies expected under a conservative climate-change scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. With moderate increases in ocean temperatures (RCP 6.0) the coral populations showed a bimodal response, with model runs showing either recovery or collapse. Under a business-as-usual climate-change scenario (RCP 8.5), with frequent and intense temperature anomalies, coral recovery was unlikely.}, }
@article {pmid30573189, year = {2019}, author = {Godsmark, CN and Irlam, J and van der Merwe, F and New, M and Rother, HA}, title = {Priority focus areas for a sub-national response to climate change and health: A South African provincial case study.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {122}, number = {}, pages = {31-51}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2018.11.035}, pmid = {30573189}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Public Health ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The intersection of health and climate change is often absent or under-represented in sub-national government strategies. This analysis of the literature, using a new methodological framework, highlights priority focus areas for a sub-national government response to health and climate change, using the Western Cape (WC) province of South Africa as a case study.<br><br>METHODS: A methodological framework was created to conduct a review of priority focus areas relevant for sub-national governments. The framework encompassed the establishment of a Project Steering Group consisting of relevant, sub-national stakeholders (e.g. provincial officials, public and environmental health specialists and academics); an analysis of local climatic projections as well as an analysis of global, national and sub-national health risk factors and impacts.<br><br>RESULTS: Globally, the discussion of health and climate change adaptation strategies in sub-national, or provincial government is often limited. For the case study presented, multiple health risk factors were identified. WC climatic projections include a warmer and potentially drier future with an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. WC government priority focus areas requiring further research on health risk factors include: population migration and environmental refugees, land use change, violence and human conflict and vulnerable groups. WC government priority focus areas for further research on health impacts include: mental ill-health, non-communicable diseases, injuries, poisonings (e.g. pesticides), food and nutrition insecurity-related diseases, water- and food-borne diseases and reproductive health. These areas are currently under-addressed, or not addressed at all, in the current provincial climate change strategy.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Sub-national government adaptation strategies often display limited discussion on the health and climate change intersect. The methodological framework presented in this case study can be globally utilized by other sub-national governments for decision-making and development of climate change and health adaptation strategies. Additionally, due to the broad range of sectoral issues identified, a primary recommendation from this study is that sub-national governments internationally should consider a "health and climate change in all policies" approach when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30573003, year = {2019}, author = {Rychetnik, L and Sainsbury, P and Stewart, G}, title = {How Local Health Districts can prepare for the effects of climate change: an adaptation model applied to metropolitan Sydney.}, journal = {Australian health review : a publication of the Australian Hospital Association}, volume = {43}, number = {6}, pages = {601-610}, doi = {10.1071/AH18153}, pmid = {30573003}, issn = {1449-8944}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Local Government ; New South Wales ; Public Health Administration ; Risk Management/*methods ; }, abstract = {Climate change adaptation can be defined as a form of risk management (i.e. assessing climate change-related risks and responding appropriately so that the risks can be pre-emptively minimised and managed as they arise). Adapting to climate change by hospital and community health services will entail responding to changing health needs of the local population, and to the likely effects of climate change on health service resources, workforce and infrastructure. In this paper we apply a model that health services can use to predict and respond to climate change risks and illustrate this with reference to Sydney's Local Health Districts (LHDs). We outline the climate change predictions for the Sydney metropolitan area, discuss the resulting vulnerabilities for LHDs and consider the potential of LHDs to respond. Three 'core business' categories are examined: (1) ambulance, emergency and acute health care; (2) routine health care; and (3) population and preventative health services. We consider the key climate change risks and vulnerabilities of the LHDs' workforce, facilities and finances, and some important transboundary issues. Many Australian health services have existing robust disaster plans and management networks. These could be expanded to incorporate local climate and health adaptation plans.}, }
@article {pmid30572212, year = {2019}, author = {Zhou, Q and Leng, G and Su, J and Ren, Y}, title = {Comparison of urbanization and climate change impacts on urban flood volumes: Importance of urban planning and drainage adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {658}, number = {}, pages = {24-33}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.184}, pmid = {30572212}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding the drivers behind urban floods is critical for reducing its devastating impacts to human and society. This study investigates the impacts of recent urban development on hydrological runoff and urban flood volumes in a major city located in northern China, and compares the urbanization impacts with the effects induced by climate change under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). We then quantify the role of urban drainage system in mitigating flood volumes to inform future adaptation strategies. A geo-spatial database on landuse types, surface imperviousness and drainage systems is developed and used as inputs into the SWMM urban drainage model to estimate the flood volumes and related risks under various urbanization and climate change scenarios. It is found that urbanization has led to an increase in annual surface runoff by 208 to 413%, but the changes in urban flood volumes can vary greatly depending on performance of drainage system along the development. Specifically, changes caused by urbanization in expected annual flood volumes are within a range of 194 to 942%, which are much higher than the effects induced by climate change under the RCP 2.6 scenario (64 to 200%). Through comparing the impacts of urbanization and climate change on urban runoff and flood volumes, this study highlights the importance for re-assessment of current and future urban drainage in coping with the changing urban floods induced by local and large-scale changes.}, }
@article {pmid30571775, year = {2018}, author = {Halofsky, JS and Conklin, DR and Donato, DC and Halofsky, JE and Kim, JB}, title = {Climate change, wildfire, and vegetation shifts in a high-inertia forest landscape: Western Washington, U.S.A.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e0209490}, pmid = {30571775}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Forests ; *Models, Biological ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; Washington ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Future vegetation shifts under changing climate are uncertain for forests with infrequent stand-replacing disturbance regimes. These high-inertia forests may have long persistence even with climate change because disturbance-free periods can span centuries, broad-scale regeneration opportunities are fewer relative to frequent-fire systems, and mature tree species are long-lived with relatively high tolerance for sub-optimal growing conditions. Here, we used a combination of empirical and process-based modeling approaches to examine vegetation projections across high-inertia forests of Washington State, USA, under different climate and wildfire futures. We ran our models without forest management (to assess inherent system behavior/potential) and also with wildfire suppression. Projections suggested relatively stable mid-elevation forests through the end of the century despite anticipated increases in wildfire. The largest changes were projected at the lowest and uppermost forest boundaries, with upward expansion of the driest low-elevation forests and contraction of cold, high-elevation subalpine parklands. While forests were overall relatively stable in simulations, increases in early-seral conditions and decreases in late-seral conditions occurred as wildfire became more frequent. With partial fire suppression, projected changes were dampened or delayed, suggesting a potential tool to forestall change in some (but not all) high-inertia forests, especially since extending fire-free periods does little to alter overall fire regimes in these systems. Model projections also illustrated the importance of fire regime context and projection limitations; the time horizon over which disturbances will eventually allow the system to shift are so long that the prevailing climatic conditions under which many of those shifts will occur are beyond what most climate models can predict with any certainty. This will present a fundamental challenge to setting expectations and managing for long-term change in these systems.}, }
@article {pmid30569969, year = {2019}, author = {Hughes, FM and Côrtes-Figueira, JE and Drumond, MA}, title = {Anticipating the response of the Brazilian giant earthworm (Rhinodrilus alatus) to climate change: implications for its traditional use.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {91}, number = {1}, pages = {e20180308}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765201820180308}, pmid = {30569969}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Brazil ; Forecasting ; Geography ; *Global Warming ; Oligochaeta/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Population Dynamics/trends ; Reference Values ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Our understanding of the impacts of ongoing global warming on terrestrial species has increased significantly during the last several years, but how climatic change has affected, and will affect, the distribution of earthworms remains largely unknown. We used climate niche modeling to model the current distribution of the giant earthworm Rhinodrilus alatus - an endemic species of the Cerrado Domain in Brazil, which is traditionally harvested and commercialized for fishing bait. R. alatus is sensitive to environmental changes because climate, in synergy with soil attributes, determine its annual reproductive cycle and distribution. The paleoclimatic reconstructions predict important geographical shifts from LGM (~21,000 yBp) to the present potential distribution of R. alatus: range expansion, fragmentation, and shrinkage of the current core area. Further, the 2070 scenarios predict substantial shrink and losses of stable areas. Our results indicate that climate change will not only affect the extent of the distribution, but will also promote significant fragmentation and a geographical shift to outside of the currently recognized geographical boundaries. In this context, populations of R. alatus would decline and traditional harvesting would collapse, requiring immediate implementation of management and conservation measures for the species and economically sustainable alternatives for the local community.}, }
@article {pmid30568872, year = {2019}, author = {Graham, R and Compton, J and Meador, K}, title = {A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature authored by medical professionals regarding US biomedicine's role in responding to climate change.}, journal = {Preventive medicine reports}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {132-138}, pmid = {30568872}, issn = {2211-3355}, abstract = {Extant literature illustrates a substantive impact on human health because of climate change. Despite this, discussions of the ethical and policymaking role of US health care's response to this problem are underdeveloped within peer-reviewed literature indexed in core medical databases. We conducted a systematic literature review in August 2017 at Vanderbilt University Medical Center of the following medical, business and policy databases to examine the state of inquiry on this topic: PubMed, CINAHL, PsychINFO, JAMA Network, Health Affairs, Business Source Complete, Greylit.org, LexisNexis Academic, Proquest Dissertations and Theses Global. An initial sample of n = 4434 rendered n = 75 articles precisely addressing this question following a two-tiered systematic examination of content. US medical professionals were most concerned by the health impacts of air pollution and respiratory complications, extreme weather events, and rising infectious/vector-borne diseases. They were least concerned by rising rates of migration and stresses to sanitation systems. Medical professionals took a broadly proactive stance to the issue, highlighting the need to implement education and advocacy strategies. Politics was the least pertinent motivation for climate change-related recommendations. Furthermore, partnerships between health care and public agencies were identified as holding the greatest potential for meaningful change. Mitigation approaches were slightly more common than adaptation approaches. We conclude that, while the enthusiasm of the medical community is commendable, efforts to address climate change in US health care are overly fractured, and lack the necessary expertise for efficaciousness.}, }
@article {pmid30568418, year = {2018}, author = {Jones, A}, title = {Malnutrition, Poverty, and Climate Change are also Human Rights Issues in Child Labor.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {249-251}, pmid = {30568418}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Labor/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; *Malnutrition ; *Poverty ; }, }
@article {pmid30568024, year = {2018}, author = {Vaidyanathan, G}, title = {Science and Culture: Imagining a climate-change future, without the dystopia.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {51}, pages = {12832-12835}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1819792116}, pmid = {30568024}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid30567014, year = {2019}, author = {Patrício, AR and Varela, MR and Barbosa, C and Broderick, AC and Catry, P and Hawkes, LA and Regalla, A and Godley, BJ}, title = {Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {522-535}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14520}, pmid = {30567014}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Global Warming ; Guinea-Bissau ; Male ; Seasons ; *Sex Ratio ; Temperature ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature-dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900-2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%-93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%-43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%-64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up-to-date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.}, }
@article {pmid30564385, year = {2018}, author = {Quiroga, MP and Premoli, AC and Kitzberger, T}, title = {Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {180513}, pmid = {30564385}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios based on 13 global climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. Modelling identified that P. parlatorei is sensitive and restricted to a relatively narrow range of both warm season temperature and precipitation. By the mid-late twenty-first century areas of high suitability for P. parlatorei will not migrate but overall suitability will become substantially reduced across its whole range and surrounding areas. Despite extensive areas in high mountain ranges where the species may encounter thermally optimal conditions to potentially allow upward local migration, these same areas will likely become strongly aridified under future conditions. On the other hand, in lowland locations where rainfall levels will not change substantially (e.g. northern range), excessive warming will likely generate abiotic and biotic restrictions (e.g. competition with lowland species) for this cold-tolerant species. Urgent measures should be developed for the local long-term preservation of the gene pool of the unique conifer that characterizes Yungas forests for reasons of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid31543701, year = {2018}, author = {Damert, M and Baumgartner, RJ}, title = {External Pressures or Internal Governance - What Determines the Extent of Corporate Responses to Climate Change?.}, journal = {Corporate social responsibility and environmental management}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {473-488}, pmid = {31543701}, issn = {1535-3966}, abstract = {To prevent adverse effects from climate change, it is vital to involve the private sector in mitigation efforts. So far, however, research has insufficiently addressed the determinants of corporate action in specific industries. Our paper aims at bridging this gap by empirically analyzing the global automotive industry's response to climate change mitigation issues. We use publicly available information from 105 sector leaders to investigate the role of external institutional pressures and intra-organizational governance in the extent of corporate action. Based on a multiple regression analysis, we find that organizational involvement and the integration of climate change into risk management exhibit the greatest influence. Moreover, companies with business activities that necessitate interaction with the end consumer tend to be most active. Our analysis furthermore indicates that neither the stringency of a firm's home country's climate policy regime nor the degree of internationalization is associated with a higher implementation level of response strategies. © 2017 The Authors. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management published by ERP Environment and John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd.}, }
@article {pmid31588364, year = {2018}, author = {Grabow, M and Bryan, T and Checovich, M and Converse, A and Middlecamp, C and Mooney, M and Torres, E and Younkin, S and Barrett, B}, title = {Mindfulness and Climate Change Action: A Feasibility Study.}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {31588364}, issn = {2071-1050}, support = {UL1 TR000427/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; UL1 TR002373/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; U54 GM115428/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; KL2 TR000428/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; K24 AT006543/AT/NCCIH NIH HHS/United States ; KL2 TR002374/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; T32 AT006956/AT/NCCIH NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Pro-environmental behaviors and the cultural shifts that can accompany these may offer solutions to the consequences of a changing climate. Mindfulness has been proposed as a strategy to initiate these types of behaviors. In 2017, we pilot-tested Mindful Climate Action (MCA), an eight-week adult education program that delivers energy use, climate change, and sustainability content in combination with training in mindfulness meditation, to 16 individuals living in Madison, WI. At baseline and at different times across the study period, we collected data regarding participants, household energy use, transportation, diet, and health and happiness. This pilot study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of the various MCA study practices including measurement tools, outcome assessment, curriculum and related educational materials, and especially the mindfulness-based climate action trainings. MCA was well-received by participants as evidenced by high adherence rate, high measures of participant satisfaction, and high participant response rate for surveys. In addition, we successfully demonstrated feasibility of the MCA program, and have estimated participant's individual carbon footprints related to diet, transportation, and household energy.}, }
@article {pmid31097909, year = {2018}, author = {Sarkar, S and Butcher, JB and Johnson, TE and Clark, CM}, title = {Simulated Sensitivity of Urban Green Infrastructure Practices to Climate Change.}, journal = {Earth interactions}, volume = {22}, number = {13}, pages = {1-37}, pmid = {31097909}, issn = {1087-3562}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to alter the quantity and quality of urban stormwater, presenting a risk to water quality and public health. How might stormwater management practices need to change to address future climate? Answering requires understanding how management practices respond to climate forcing. Traditional "gray" stormwater design employs engineered structures, sized based on assumptions about future rainfall, which have limited flexibility once built. Green infrastructure (GI) uses vegetation, soil, and distributed structures to manage rainwater where it falls and may provide greater flexibility for adaptation. There is, however, uncertainty about how a warmer climate may affect performance of different types of GI. This study uses the hydrologic and biogeochemical watershed model, Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), to investigate sensitivity of different GI practices to climate. Simulations examine 36 urban "archetypes" representing different development patterns (at the city block scale) of typical U.S. cities, eleven regional climatic settings, and a range of mid-21st century scenarios based on downscaled climate model output. Results suggest regionally variable effects of climate change on the performance of GI practices for water quantity, water quality, and carbon sequestration. GI is able to mitigate most projected future increases in surface runoff, while bioretention can mitigate increased nitrogen yield at nine of eleven sites. Simulated changes in carbon balance are small, while local evaporative cooling can be substantial. Given uncertainty in the local expression of future climate, infrastructure design should emphasize flexibility and robustness to a range of future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30972111, year = {2018}, author = {Nolte, CG and Spero, TL and Bowden, JH and Mallard, MS and Dolwick, PD}, title = {The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous U.S. at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways.}, journal = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics}, volume = {18}, number = {20}, pages = {15471-15489}, pmid = {30972111}, issn = {1680-7316}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {The potential impacts of climate change on regional ozone (O3) and fine particulate (PM2.5) air quality in the United States are investigated by linking global climate simulations with regional scale meteorological and chemical transport models. Regional climate at 2000 and at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale 11-year time slices from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The downscaled meteorology is then used with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate air quality during each of these 11-year periods. The analysis isolates the future air quality differences arising from climate-driven changes in meteorological parameters and specific natural emissions sources that are strongly influenced by meteorology. Other factors that will affect future air quality, such as anthropogenic air pollutant emissions and chemical boundary conditions, are unchanged across the simulations. The regional climate fields represent historical daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures well, with mean biases less than 2 K for most regions of the U.S. and most seasons of the year and good representation of variability. Precipitation in the central and eastern U.S. is well simulated for the historical period, with seasonal and annual biases generally less than 25%, with positive biases exceeding 25% in the western U.S. throughout the year and in part of the eastern U.S. during summer. Maximum daily 8-h ozone (MDA8 O3) is projected to increase during summer and autumn in the central and eastern U.S. The increase in summer mean MDA8 O3 is largest under RCP8.5, exceeding 4 ppb in some locations, with smaller seasonal mean increases of up to 2 ppb simulated during autumn and changes during spring generally less than 1 ppb. Increases are magnified at the upper end of the O3 distribution, particularly where projected increases in temperature are greater. Annual average PM2.5 concentration changes range from -1.0 to 1.0 μg m[-3]. Organic PM2.5 concentrations increase during summer and autumn due to increased biogenic emissions. Aerosol nitrate decreases during winter, accompanied by lesser decreases in ammonium and sulfate, due to warmer temperatures causing increased partitioning to the gas phase. Among meteorological factors examined to account for modeled changes in pollution, temperature and isoprene emissions are found to have the largest changes and the greatest impact on O3 concentrations.}, }
@article {pmid30956938, year = {2018}, author = {Woollings, T and Barriopedro, D and Methven, J and Son, SW and Martius, O and Harvey, B and Sillmann, J and Lupo, AR and Seneviratne, S}, title = {Blocking and its Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Current climate change reports}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {287-300}, pmid = {30956938}, issn = {2198-6061}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Several avenues have been identified by which blocking can be improved in numerical models, though a fully reliable simulation remains elusive (at least, beyond a few days lead time). Models are therefore starting to provide some useful information on how blocking and its impacts may change in the future, although deeper understanding of the processes at play will be needed to increase confidence in model projections. There are still major uncertainties regarding the processes most important to the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking and advances in our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, for example in the role of diabatic processes, continue to inform the modelling and prediction efforts.<br><br>SUMMARY: The term 'blocking' covers a diverse array of synoptic patterns, and hence a bewildering range of indices has been developed to identify events. Results are hence not considered fully trustworthy until they have been found using several different methods. Examples of such robust results are the underestimation of blocking by models, and an overall decline in future occurrence, albeit with a complex regional and seasonal variation. In contrast, hemispheric trends in blocking over the recent historical period are not supported by different methods, and natural variability will likely dominate regional variations over the next few decades.}, }
@article {pmid30931245, year = {2018}, author = {Screen, JA and Bracegirdle, TJ and Simmonds, I}, title = {Polar Climate Change as Manifest in Atmospheric Circulation.}, journal = {Current climate change reports}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {383-395}, pmid = {30931245}, issn = {2198-6061}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Dynamic manifestations of climate change, i.e. those related to circulation, are less well understood than are thermodynamic, or temperature-related aspects. However, this knowledge gap is narrowing. We review recent progress in understanding the causes of observed changes in polar tropospheric and stratospheric circulation, and in interpreting climate model projections of their future changes.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Trends in the annular modes reflect the influences of multiple drivers. In the Northern Hemisphere, there appears to be a "tug-of-war" between the opposing effects of Arctic near-surface warming and tropical upper tropospheric warming, two predominant features of the atmospheric response to increasing greenhouse gases. Future trends in the Southern Hemisphere largely depend on the competing effects of stratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases.<br><br>SUMMARY: Human influence on the Antarctic circulation is detectable in the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex and the poleward shift of the tropospheric westerly winds. Observed Arctic circulation changes cannot be confidently separated from internal atmospheric variability.}, }
@article {pmid30931244, year = {2018}, author = {Byrne, MP and Pendergrass, AG and Rapp, AD and Wodzicki, KR}, title = {Response of the Intertropical Convergence Zone to Climate Change: Location, Width, and Strength.}, journal = {Current climate change reports}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {355-370}, pmid = {30931244}, issn = {2198-6061}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is a planetary-scale band of heavy precipitation close to the equator. Here, we consider the response of the ITCZ structure to climate change using observations, simulations, and theory. We focus on the substantial yet underappreciated projected changes in ITCZ width and strength, and highlight an emerging conceptual framework for understanding these changes.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Satellite observations and reanalysis data show a narrowing and strengthening of precipitation in the ITCZ over recent decades in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, but little change in ITCZ location. Consistent with observations, coupled climate models predict no robust change in the zonal-mean ITCZ location over the twenty-first century. However, the majority of models project a narrowing of the ITCZ and weakening mean ascent. Interestingly, changes in ITCZ width and strength are strongly anti-correlated across models.<br><br>SUMMARY: The ITCZ has narrowed over recent decades yet its location has remained approximately constant. Climate models project further narrowing and a weakening of the average ascent within the ITCZ as the climate continues to warm. Following intense work over the last ten years, the physical mechanisms controlling the ITCZ location are now well understood. The development of complementary theories for ITCZ width and strength is a current research priority. Outstanding challenges include understanding the ITCZ response to past climate changes and over land versus ocean regions, and better constraining all aspects of the ITCZ structure in model projections.<br><br>The online version of this article (10.1007/s40641-018-0110-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.}, }
@article {pmid30931243, year = {2018}, author = {Gilmore, EA and Herzer Risi, L and Tennant, E and Buhaug, H}, title = {Bridging Research and Policy on Climate Change and Conflict.}, journal = {Current climate change reports}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {313-319}, pmid = {30931243}, issn = {2198-6061}, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This special issue on "Bridging Research and Policy on Climate Change and Conflict" brings together the results of a 2018 workshop organized by the Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) and the Wilson Center with six papers that address different aspects of the translation of the research on climate change and conflict to policy and practice. Here, we provide an overview of the workshop and papers to highlight key opportunities and challenges to linking the climate-conflict scholarship with pressing issues in diplomacy, development, and security.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Multiple methods, especially comparative case studies, should be applied to elucidate the more complex mechanisms of the climate-conflict link. This approach may also enhance engagement with the policymakers who draw on examples and narratives. There is also a need for both predictive models that capture contextual factors and policy interactions as well as decision-support tools, such as integrated assessment models, that can be used to test the implications of different theories and models in the literature.<br><br>SUMMARY: Scholars should engage the policy community to formulate research questions that are more policy relevant, such as the effectiveness of interventions. There is also the need for models and frameworks that help practitioners synthesize the academic results. Practitioners are encouraged to leverage the comparative advantages of academic researchers in new policy and projects to inform data collection and future analysis of effectiveness.}, }
@article {pmid30930505, year = {2018}, author = {Cronin, J and Anandarajah, G and Dessens, O}, title = {Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {151}, number = {2}, pages = {79-93}, pmid = {30930505}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Major transformation of the global energy system is required for climate change mitigation. However, energy demand patterns and supply systems are themselves subject to climate change impacts. These impacts will variously help and hinder mitigation and adaptation efforts, so it is vital they are well understood and incorporated into models used to study energy system decarbonisation pathways. To assess the current state of understanding of this topic and identify research priorities, this paper critically reviews the literature on the impacts of climate change on the energy supply system, summarising the regional coverage of studies, trends in their results and sources of disagreement. We then examine the ways in which these impacts have been represented in integrated assessment models of the electricity or energy system. Studies tend to agree broadly on impacts for wind, solar and thermal power stations. Projections for impacts on hydropower and bioenergy resources are more varied. Key uncertainties and gaps remain due to the variation between climate projections, modelling limitations and the regional bias of research interests. Priorities for future research include the following: further regional impact studies for developing countries; studies examining impacts of the changing variability of renewable resources, extreme weather events and combined hazards; inclusion of multiple climate feedback mechanisms in IAMs, accounting for adaptation options and climate model uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid30880852, year = {2018}, author = {Shepherd, TG and Boyd, E and Calel, RA and Chapman, SC and Dessai, S and Dima-West, IM and Fowler, HJ and James, R and Maraun, D and Martius, O and Senior, CA and Sobel, AH and Stainforth, DA and Tett, SFB and Trenberth, KE and van den Hurk, BJJM and Watkins, NW and Wilby, RL and Zenghelis, DA}, title = {Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {151}, number = {3}, pages = {555-571}, pmid = {30880852}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a 'storyline' approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid31080300, year = {2017}, author = {Niraula, R and Meixner, T and Dominguez, F and Rodell, M and Ajami, H and Gochis, D and Castro, C}, title = {How might recharge change under projected climate change in western US?.}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {44}, number = {20}, pages = {10407-10418}, pmid = {31080300}, issn = {0094-8276}, support = {/GSFC/Goddard Space Flight Center NASA/United States ; SCMD-EARTHSCIENCESYSTEM_281945/ImNASA/Intramural NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {Although groundwater is a major resource of water in the western US, little research has been done on the impacts of climate change on groundwater storage and recharge in the West. Here we assess the impact of projected changes in climate on groundwater recharge in the near (2021-2050) and far (2071-2100) future across the western US. Recharge is expected to decrease slightly (highly certain) in the West (-1.6%) and Southwest (-2.9%) regions in the near future and decrease considerably (highly certain) in the South region (-10.6%) in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge (highly certain) in both the near (+5.0%) and far (+9.0%) future. In general, southern portions of the western US are expected to get less recharge in the future and northern portions will get more. This study also shows that climate change interacts with land surface properties to affect the amount of recharge that occurs in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30676927, year = {2017}, author = {Tang, X and Cao, X and Xu, X and Jiang, Y and Luo, Y and Ma, Z and Fan, J and Zhou, Y}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Epidemics of Powdery Mildew in Winter Wheat in China.}, journal = {Plant disease}, volume = {101}, number = {10}, pages = {1753-1760}, doi = {10.1094/PDIS-02-17-0168-RE}, pmid = {30676927}, issn = {0191-2917}, mesh = {*Ascomycota/physiology ; China ; *Climate Change ; Humidity ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; *Triticum/microbiology ; }, abstract = {Powdery mildew is a highly destructive winter wheat pathogen in China. Since the causative agent is sensitive to changing weather conditions, we analyzed climatic records from regions with previous wheat powdery mildew epidemics (1970 to 2012) and investigated the long-term effects of climate change on the percent acreage (PA) of the disease. Then, using PA and the pathogen's temperature requirements, we constructed a multiregression model to predict changes in epidemics during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Mean monthly air temperature increased from 1970 to 2012, whereas hours of sunshine and relative humidity decreased (P < 0.001). Year-to-year temperature changes were negatively associated with those of PA during oversummering and late spring periods of disease epidemics, whereas positive relationships were noted for other periods, and year-to-year changes in relative humidity were correlated with PA changes in the early spring period of disease epidemics (P < 0.001). Our models also predicted that PA would increase less under RCP2.6 (14.43%) than under RCP4.5 (14.51%) by the 2020s but would be higher by the 2050s and 2080s and would increase least under RCP8.5 (14.37% by the 2020s). Powdery mildew will, thus, pose an even greater threat to China's winter wheat production in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30686941, year = {2017}, author = {Sugai, G and Freeman, J and Simonsen, B and La Salle, T and Fixsen, D}, title = {National Climate Change: Doubling Down on Our Precision and Emphasis on Prevention and Behavioral Sciences.}, journal = {Report on emotional &amp; behavioral disorders in youth}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {58-63}, pmid = {30686941}, issn = {1531-5479}, support = {2874/PCORI/Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid31565270, year = {2017}, author = {Myers, TA and Roser-Renouf, C and Maibach, E and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Exposure to the Pope's Climate Change Message Activated Convinced Americans to Take Certain Activism Actions.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {1}, number = {4}, pages = {1600019}, pmid = {31565270}, issn = {2056-6646}, abstract = {Many people who are concerned about the issue of climate change do not engage in the collective action behaviors that are most likely to lead to societal-scale solutions. Such attitude-behavior inconsistency is a well-documented phenomenon. This study investigates whether exposure to an effectively framed message from a highly credible source can increase the consistency between attitudes and activism behaviors among people with pre-existing strong attitudes, particularly for behaviors that are less difficult. The release of Pope Francis' climate change encyclical, Laudato Sí, and subsequent visit to the United States provide an opportunity to test this research question in a natural field setting. A nationally representative, within-subject panel survey was conducted two months prior to the release of the encyclical and again four months later, after the release and papal visit, to assess the impact of the Pope's message on Americans' climate change consumer and political advocacy behaviors. Among people who are already concerned about climate change, higher exposure to the Pope's climate change message is associated with increases in attitude-behavior consistency for less difficult activism behaviors. The findings suggest that sustained exposure to compelling climate messages from trusted sources can increase the performance of activism behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid31565263, year = {2017}, author = {van der Linden, S and Leiserowitz, A and Rosenthal, S and Maibach, E}, title = {Inoculating the Public against Misinformation about Climate Change.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {1600008}, pmid = {31565263}, issn = {2056-6646}, abstract = {Effectively addressing climate change requires significant changes in individual and collective human behavior and decision-making. Yet, in light of the increasing politicization of (climate) science, and the attempts of vested-interest groups to undermine the scientific consensus on climate change through organized "disinformation campaigns," identifying ways to effectively engage with the public about the issue across the political spectrum has proven difficult. A growing body of research suggests that one promising way to counteract the politicization of science is to convey the high level of normative agreement ("consensus") among experts about the reality of human-caused climate change. Yet, much prior research examining public opinion dynamics in the context of climate change has done so under conditions with limited external validity. Moreover, no research to date has examined how to protect the public from the spread of influential misinformation about climate change. The current research bridges this divide by exploring how people evaluate and process consensus cues in a polarized information environment. Furthermore, evidence is provided that it is possible to pre-emptively protect ("inoculate") public attitudes about climate change against real-world misinformation.}, }
@article {pmid31258222, year = {2017}, author = {Belfer, E and Ford, JD and Maillet, M}, title = {Representation of Indigenous peoples in climate change reporting.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {145}, number = {1}, pages = {57-70}, pmid = {31258222}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {This article examines how newspapers reporting on climate change have covered and framed Indigenous peoples. Focusing on eight newspapers in Canada, the USA, Australia, and New Zealand, we examine articles published from 1995 to 2015, and analyze them using content and framing analyses. The impacts of climate change are portrayed as having severe ecological, sociocultural, and health/safety impacts for Indigenous peoples, who are often framed as victims and "harbingers" of climate change. There is a strong focus on stories reporting on the Arctic. The lack of substantive discussion of colonialism or marginalization in the reviewed stories limits media portrayal of the structural roots of vulnerability, rendering climate change as a problem for, rather than of society. Indigenous and traditional knowledge is widely discussed, but principally as a means of corroborating scientific knowledge, or in accordance with romanticized portrayals of Indigenous peoples. Widespread disparities in the volume, content, and framing of coverage are also observed across the four nations.}, }
@article {pmid30701052, year = {2016}, author = {Borcier, E and Charrier, G and Amérand, A and Théron, M and Loizeau, V and Pédron, N and Laroche, J}, title = {Bioenergetic Transcriptomic Responses of European Flounder (Platichthys Flesus) Populations in Contrasted Environments: Impacts of Pollution and Global Warming.}, journal = {Journal of xenobiotics}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {6586}, pmid = {30701052}, issn = {2039-4705}, }
@article {pmid31423452, year = {2016}, author = {Yan, XH and Boyer, T and Trenberth, K and Karl, TR and Xie, SP and Nieves, V and Tung, KK and Roemmich, D}, title = {The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {4}, number = {11}, pages = {472-482}, pmid = {31423452}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013, compared to the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century. Although, not a "true" hiatus in the strict definition of the word, this has been termed the "global warming hiatus" by IPCC (2013). There have been other periods that have also been defined as the "hiatus" depending on the analysis. There are a number of uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the "hiatus." This report reviews these issues and also posits insights from a collective set of diverse information that helps us understand what we do and do not know. One salient insight is that the GMST phenomenon is a surface characteristic that does not represent a slowdown in warming of the climate system but rather is an energy redistribution within the oceans. Improved understanding of the ocean distribution and redistribution of heat will help better monitor Earth's energy budget and its consequences. A review of recent scientific publications on the "hiatus" shows the difficulty and complexities in pinpointing the oceanic sink of the "missing heat" from the atmosphere and the upper layer of the oceans, which defines the "hiatus." Advances in "hiatus" research and outlooks (recommendations) are given in this report.}, }
@article {pmid30787701, year = {2016}, author = {Taha, TE}, title = {Climate Change and Potential Impact on Disease: What are the Public Health Agenda?.}, journal = {Saudi journal of medicine &amp; medical sciences}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {71-73}, pmid = {30787701}, issn = {2321-4856}, abstract = {Globally, the impact of climate change on human health is widely discussed. There are several mechanisms how environmental variability can influence the occurrence of diseases that are communicable or noncommunicable. The biophysical underlying causes of climate changes are not proportionately distributed between developed and developing countries. Developed countries contribute more greenhouse emissions, but the population health effects of climate change are estimated to be higher in developing countries compared to developed countries. Therefore, examination of challenges associated with climate change should be a priority. In the countries of North Africa and the Middle East, a clear public health agenda needs to be developed, even if local/regional factors contributing to unpredictable climatic changes are not well-known. Targeting risk factors associated with noncommunicable diseases, and adopting lifestyle changes are interventions to consider.}, }
@article {pmid30787700, year = {2016}, author = {Bella, H}, title = {Global Warming and Health: Still Not Too Late.}, journal = {Saudi journal of medicine &amp; medical sciences}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {69-70}, pmid = {30787700}, issn = {2321-4856}, }
@article {pmid31565249, year = {2017}, author = {Feulner, G}, title = {Global Challenges: Climate Change.}, journal = {Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {5-6}, doi = {10.1002/gch2.1003}, pmid = {31565249}, issn = {2056-6646}, }
@article {pmid30564031, year = {2018}, author = {Sfenthourakis, S and Hornung, E}, title = {Isopod distribution and climate change.}, journal = {ZooKeys}, volume = {}, number = {801}, pages = {25-61}, pmid = {30564031}, issn = {1313-2989}, abstract = {The unique properties of terrestrial isopods regarding responses to limiting factors such as drought and temperature have led to interesting distributional patterns along climatic and other environmental gradients at both species and community level. This paper will focus on the exploration of isopod distributions in evaluating climate change effects on biodiversity at different scales, geographical regions, and environments, in view of isopods' tolerances to environmental factors, mostly humidity and temperature. Isopod distribution is tightly connected to available habitats and habitat features at a fine spatial scale, even though different species may exhibit a variety of responses to environmental heterogeneity, reflecting the large interspecific variation within the group. Furthermore, isopod distributions show some notable deviations from common global patterns, mainly as a result of their ecological features and evolutionary origins. Responses to human disturbance are not always traceable, but a trend towards community homogenisation is often found under strong global urbanisation processes. In general, even though it is still not clear how predicted climate change will affect isopod distribution, there is evidence that mixed effects are to be expected, depending on the region under study. We still lack robust and extensive analyses of isopod distributions at different scales and at different biomes, as well as applications of distribution models that might help evaluate future trends.}, }
@article {pmid30564030, year = {2018}, author = {Hassall, M and Moss, A and Dixie, B and Gilroy, JJ}, title = {Interspecific variation in responses to microclimate by terrestrial isopods: implications in relation to climate change.}, journal = {ZooKeys}, volume = {}, number = {801}, pages = {5-24}, pmid = {30564030}, issn = {1313-2989}, abstract = {The importance of considering species-specific biotic interactions when predicting feedbacks between the effects of climate change and ecosystem functions is becoming widely recognised. The responses of soil animals to predicted changes in global climate could potentially have far-reaching consequences for fluxes of soil carbon, including climatic feedbacks resulting from increased emissions of carbon dioxide from soils. The responses of soil animals to different microclimates can be summarised as norms of reaction, in order to compare phenotypic differences in traits along environmental gradients. Thermal and moisture reaction norms for physiological, behavioural and life history traits of species of terrestrial isopods differing in their morphological adaptations for reducing water loss are presented. Gradients of moisture reaction norms for respiratory rates and thermal reaction norms for water loss, for a species from the littoral zone were steeper than those for species from mesic environments. Those for mesic species were steeper than for those from xeric habitats. Within mesic species, gradients of thermal reaction norms for aggregation were steeper for Oniscusasellus than for Porcellioscaber or Armadilliumvulgare, and moisture reaction norms for sheltering and feeding behaviours were steeper for Philosciamuscorum than for either P.scaber or A.vulgare. These differences reflect differences in body shape, permeability of the cuticle, and development of pleopodal lungs. The implications of differences between different species of soil animals in response to microclimate on the possible influence of the soil fauna on soil carbon dynamics under future climates are discussed. In conclusion a modelling approach to bridging the inter-disciplinary gap between carbon cycling and the biology of soil animals is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid30559441, year = {2018}, author = {Klesse, S and DeRose, RJ and Guiterman, CH and Lynch, AM and O'Connor, CD and Shaw, JD and Evans, MEK}, title = {Sampling bias overestimates climate change impacts on forest growth in the southwestern United States.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {5336}, pmid = {30559441}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate-tree growth relationships recorded in annual growth rings have recently been the basis for projecting climate change impacts on forests. However, most trees and sample sites represented in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were chosen to maximize climate signal and are characterized by marginal growing conditions not representative of the larger forest ecosystem. We evaluate the magnitude of this potential bias using a spatially unbiased tree-ring network collected by the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. We show that U.S. Southwest ITRDB samples overestimate regional forest climate sensitivity by 41-59%, because ITRDB trees were sampled at warmer and drier locations, both at the macro- and micro-site scale, and are systematically older compared to the FIA collection. Although there are uncertainties associated with our statistical approach, projection based on representative FIA samples suggests 29% less of a climate change-induced growth decrease compared to projection based on climate-sensitive ITRDB samples.}, }
@article {pmid30557386, year = {2018}, author = {Silva, CR and Ribas, CC and Da Silva, MNF and Leite, RN and Catzeflis, F and Rogers, DS and De Thoisy, B}, title = {The role of Pleistocene climate change in the genetic variability, distribution and demography of Proechimys cuvieri and P. guyannensis (Rodentia: Echimyidae) in northeastern Amazonia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e0206660}, pmid = {30557386}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Cytochromes b/*genetics ; *Genetic Variation ; *Haplotypes ; *Phylogeny ; Rivers ; Rodentia/*genetics ; }, abstract = {The spiny rats, genus Proechimys, have the highest species richness within the Echimyidae family, as well as species with high genetic variability. The genus distribution includes tropical South America and Central America south to Honduras. In this study, we evaluate the phylogeographic histories of Proechimys guyannensis and P. cuvieri using cytochrome b, in a densely sampled area in northeastern Amazon where both species are found in sympatry in different environments. For each species, Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analysis were congruent and recovered similar clades in the studied area. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis using a relaxed molecular clock showed that these clusters of haplotypes diversified during Pleistocene for both species. Apparently, the large rivers of the region did not act as barriers, as some clades include specimens collected from opposite banks of Oiapoque, Araguari and Jari rivers. Bayesian skyline plot analysis showed recent demographic expansion in both species. The Pleistocene climatic changes in concert with the geologic changes in the Amazon fan probably acted as drivers in the diversification that we detected in these two spiny rats. Proechimys cuvieri and P. guyannensis show genetic structure in the eastern part of the Guiana region. Greater genetic distances observed in P. guyannensis, associated with highly structured groups, suggest that more detailed studies of systematics and ecology should be directed to this species.}, }
@article {pmid30555728, year = {2018}, author = {McCauley, SJ and Hammond, JI and Mabry, KE}, title = {Simulated climate change increases larval mortality, alters phenology, and affects flight morphology of a dragonfly.}, journal = {Ecosphere (Washington, D.C)}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {30555728}, issn = {2150-8925}, support = {K12 GM088021/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {For organisms with complex life cycles, climate change can have both direct effects and indirect effects that are mediated through plastic responses to temperature and that carry over beyond the developmental environment. We examined multiple responses to environmental warming in a dragonfly, a species whose life history bridges aquatic and terrestrial environments. We tested larval survival under warming and whether warmer conditions can create carry-over effects between life history stages. Rearing dragonfly larvae in an experimental warming array to simulate increases in temperature, we contrasted the effects of the current thermal environment with temperatures +2.5°C and +5°C above ambient, temperatures predicted for 50 and 100 years in the future for the study region. Aquatic mesocosms were stocked with dragonfly larvae (Erythemis collocata) and we followed survival of larvae to adult emergence. We also measured the effects of warming on the timing of the life history transition to the adult stage, body size of adults, and the relative size of their wings, an aspect of morphology key to flight performance. There was a trend toward reduced larval survival with increasing temperature. Warming strongly affected the phenology of adult emergence, advancing emergence by up to a month compared with ambient conditions. Additionally, our warmest conditions increased variation in the timing of adult emergence compared with cooler conditions. The increased variation with warming arose from an extended emergence season with fewer individuals emerging at any one time. Altered emergence patterns such as we observed are likely to place individuals emerging outside the typical season at greater risk from early and late season storms and will reduce effective population sizes during the breeding season. Contrary to expectations for ectotherms, body size was unaffected by warming. However, morphology was affected: at +5°C, dragonflies emerging from mesocosms had relatively smaller wings. This provides some of the first evidence that the effects of climate change on animals during their growth can have carry-over effects in morphology that will affect performance of later life history stages. In dragonflies, relatively smaller wings are associated with reduced flight performance, creating a link between larval thermal conditions and adult dispersal capacity.}, }
@article {pmid30555447, year = {2018}, author = {Rodríguez, J and Gallampois, CMJ and Timonen, S and Andersson, A and Sinkko, H and Haglund, P and Berglund, &#xc5;MM and Ripszam, M and Figueroa, D and Tysklind, M and Rowe, O}, title = {Effects of Organic Pollutants on Bacterial Communities Under Future Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {2926}, pmid = {30555447}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and can be strongly influenced by climate change, anthropogenic activities (e.g., pollution), and a combination of the two pressures. As a result of climate change, the northern hemisphere is predicted to undergo an increased precipitation regime, leading in turn to higher terrestrial runoff and increased river inflow. This increased runoff will transfer terrestrial dissolved organic matter (tDOM) and anthropogenic contaminants to coastal waters. Such changes can directly influence the resident biology, particularly at the base of the food web, and can influence the partitioning of contaminants and thus their potential impact on the food web. Bacteria have been shown to respond to high tDOM concentration and organic pollutants loads, and could represent the entry of some pollutants into coastal food webs. We carried out a mesocosm experiment to determine the effects of: (1) increased tDOM concentration, (2) organic pollutant exposure, and (3) the combined effect of these two factors, on pelagic bacterial communities. This study showed significant responses in bacterial community composition under the three environmental perturbations tested. The addition of tDOM increased bacterial activity and diversity, while the addition of organic pollutants led to an overall reduction of these parameters, particularly under concurrent elevated tDOM concentration. Furthermore, we identified 33 bacterial taxa contributing to the significant differences observed in community composition, as well as 35 bacterial taxa which responded differently to extended exposure to organic pollutants. These findings point to the potential impact of organic pollutants under future climate change conditions on the basal coastal ecosystem, as well as to the potential utility of natural bacterial communities as efficient indicators of environmental disturbance.}, }
@article {pmid30555387, year = {2018}, author = {Markowitz, DM and Laha, R and Perone, BP and Pea, RD and Bailenson, JN}, title = {Immersive Virtual Reality Field Trips Facilitate Learning About Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {2364}, pmid = {30555387}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Across four studies, two controlled lab experiments and two field studies, we tested the efficacy of immersive Virtual Reality (VR) as an education medium for teaching the consequences of climate change, particularly ocean acidification. Over 270 participants from four different learning settings experienced an immersive underwater world designed to show the process and effects of rising sea water acidity. In all of our investigations, after experiencing immersive VR people demonstrated knowledge gains or inquisitiveness about climate science and in some cases, displayed more positive attitudes toward the environment after comparing pre- and post-test assessments. The analyses also revealed a potential post-hoc mechanism for the learning effects, as the more that people explored the spatial learning environment, the more they demonstrated a change in knowledge about ocean acidification. This work is unique by showing distinct learning gains or an interest in learning across a variety of participants (high school, college students, adults), measures (learning gain scores, tracking data about movement in the virtual world, qualitative responses from classroom teachers), and content (multiple versions varying in length and content about climate change were tested). Our findings explicate the opportunity to use immersive VR for environmental education and to drive information-seeking about important social issues such as climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30551830, year = {2018}, author = {Tüzün, N and Stoks, R}, title = {Evolution of geographic variation in thermal performance curves in the face of climate change and implications for biotic interactions.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {78-84}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2018.07.004}, pmid = {30551830}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Biota ; *Climate Change ; Insecta/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; *Thermotolerance ; }, abstract = {We review the recent literature on geographic variation in insect thermal performance curves (TPCs). Despite strong thermal differences, there is often no change in TPCs across geographic gradients. When shifts occur, these are mostly vertical (indicating an overall shift in performance across temperatures, that is, countergradient or cogradient variation) and less horizontal (reflecting thermal adaptation). Based on this, using a space-for-time substitution approach, we generated likely evolutionary scenarios of TPC evolution to simulate the outcome of biotic interactions under future warming. We illustrate how taking evolution of the TPCs into account may strongly impact the predicted outcome of biotic interactions under climate warming. Importantly, both the type and the magnitude of the TPC shift was identified to be crucial to determine who will be winners and losers of biotic interactions.}, }
@article {pmid30551819, year = {2018}, author = {Pellissier, L and Rasmann, S}, title = {The functional decoupling of processes in alpine ecosystems under climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {126-132}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2018.07.005}, pmid = {30551819}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Insecta/*physiology ; Microbiota/physiology ; Models, Biological ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change may promote the decoupling of the different above-ground and below-ground compartments of high elevation ecosystems. Along elevation gradients, a trade-off between species tolerance to cold climates and metabolic rates dictates that cold adapted organisms display a lower efficiency in decomposition, growth or herbivory. As a consequence, if dispersal or evolution under climate change is systematically faster for agents of one compartment (e.g. insect herbivores, or soil microbes, respectively) compared to others, novel and more efficient functions will arise in the alpine systems and increase fluxes of elements to and through this compartment. We illustrate this potential decoupling using a mechanistic model, where the efficiency of agents in the compartments follows the metabolic theory. To detect and forecast ecosystem decoupling under climate change, we argue that the current efficiency of agents should be measured systematically along elevation gradients. In addition, future research should investigate the impact of dispersal and evolution in response to climate change on ecosystem processes.}, }
@article {pmid30550901, year = {2019}, author = {Nunfam, VF and Oosthuizen, J and Adusei-Asante, K and Van Etten, EJ and Frimpong, K}, title = {Perceptions of climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers in Ghana.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {657}, number = {}, pages = {365-378}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.480}, pmid = {30550901}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Ghana ; Heat Stress Disorders/etiology/*prevention &amp; control/psychology ; *Heat-Shock Response ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Mining ; Occupational Exposure/*analysis/prevention &amp; control ; *Perception ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Heavy physical workload for long hours coupled with increasing workplace heat exposure due to rising temperatures stemming from climate change, especially where there are inadequate prevention and control policies, adversely affect workers' health and safety, productive capacity and social well-being. However, variations in workers' concerns and awareness of occupational heat stress and climate change risks impede the effectiveness of heat stress management. A mixed method approach was used to assess climate change perceptions and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of Ghanaian mining workers. Questionnaires and focus group discussions were used to collect data from 320 respondents. Quantitative and qualitative approaches were used for data analysis. Workers' climate change risk perception, as confirmed by trends in climate data, was reasonable, but concerns about climate change effects and workplace heat exposure risks varied significantly across types of mining activity (p < 0.001). Workers experienced heat-related morbidities, but the variation in heat-related morbidity experiences across the type of mining activity was not significant. However, the type of heat-related morbidities experienced by workers differed across the type of mining activity (p < 0.001). Workers' awareness of occupational heat stress prevention and control was adequate. The disparities in workers' awareness and use of the prevention and control measures significantly differed across the type of mining activity (p < 0.001). Occupational heat stress prevention activities should focus on workers, and a concerted effort must be made to promote workers' adaptive capacity and inform policy decisions.}, }
@article {pmid30550898, year = {2019}, author = {Bai, M and Mo, X and Liu, S and Hu, S}, title = {Contributions of climate change and vegetation greening to evapotranspiration trend in a typical hilly-gully basin on the Loess Plateau, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {657}, number = {}, pages = {325-339}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.360}, pmid = {30550898}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Plant Development ; *Plant Transpiration ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Significant increases in vegetation cover on the Loess Plateau since the early 2000s have been well documented. However, the relevant hydrological effects are still unclear. Here, we investigated the changes in actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from 2000 to 2016 and related them to climate change and vegetation greening in Yanhe River basin (YRB), a typical hilly-gully basin on the Loess Plateau, by using the remote-sensing based VIP model. Results showed that the annual ETa in the YRB increased significantly with a trend of 3.45mmyr[-1] (p<0.01) and changes of ETa in summer months dominated the annual trend. Partial correlation analysis suggested that vegetation greening was the dominant driving factor of ETa inter-annual variations in 56% area of YRB. Model simulation experiments illustrated that relative contributions of NDVI, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (ETp) to the ETa trend were 93.0%, 18.1%, and -7.4%, respectively. Vegetation greening, which is closely related to the Grain for Green (GFG) afforestation, was the main driver to the long-term tendency of water consumption in the YRB. This study highlights potential water demanding conflicts between the socio-economic system and the natural ecosystem on the Loess Plateau due to the rapid vegetation expansion in this water-limited area.}, }
@article {pmid30549378, year = {2019}, author = {Collalti, A and Thornton, PE and Cescatti, A and Rita, A and Borghetti, M and Nolè, A and Trotta, C and Ciais, P and Matteucci, G}, title = {The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {e01837}, pmid = {30549378}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//U.S. Department of Energy/International ; }, mesh = {Biomass ; *Carbon ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; }, abstract = {The future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration depends on the development of the terrestrial carbon sink, which in turn is influenced by forest dynamics under changing environmental conditions. An in-depth understanding of model sensitivities and uncertainties in non-steady-state conditions is necessary for reliable and robust projections of forest development and under scenarios of global warming and CO2 enrichment. Here, we systematically assessed if a biogeochemical process-based model (3D-CMCC-CNR), which embeds similarities with many other vegetation models, applied in simulating net primary productivity (NPP) and standing woody biomass (SWB), maintained a consistent sensitivity to its 55 input parameters through time, during forest ageing and structuring as well as under climate change scenarios. Overall, the model applied at three contrasting European forests showed low sensitivity to the majority of its parameters. Interestingly, model sensitivity to parameters varied through the course of >100 yr of simulations. In particular, the model showed a large responsiveness to the allometric parameters used for initialize forest carbon and nitrogen pools early in forest simulation (i.e., for NPP up to ~37%, 256 g C·m[-2] ·yr[-1] and for SWB up to ~90%, 65 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation), with this sensitivity decreasing sharply during forest development. At medium to longer time scales, and under climate change scenarios, the model became increasingly more sensitive to additional and/or different parameters controlling biomass accumulation and autotrophic respiration (i.e., for NPP up to ~30%, 167 g C·m[-2] ·yr[-1] and for SWB up to ~24%, 64 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation). Interestingly, model outputs were shown to be more sensitive to parameters and processes controlling stand development rather than to climate change (i.e., warming and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration) itself although model sensitivities were generally higher under climate change scenarios. Our results suggest the need for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that cover multiple temporal scales along forest developmental stages to better assess the potential of future forests to act as a global terrestrial carbon sink.}, }
@article {pmid30549200, year = {2019}, author = {Asseng, S and Martre, P and Maiorano, A and Rötter, RP and O'Leary, GJ and Fitzgerald, GJ and Girousse, C and Motzo, R and Giunta, F and Babar, MA and Reynolds, MP and Kheir, AMS and Thorburn, PJ and Waha, K and Ruane, AC and Aggarwal, PK and Ahmed, M and Balkovič, J and Basso, B and Biernath, C and Bindi, M and Cammarano, D and Challinor, AJ and De Sanctis, G and Dumont, B and Eyshi Rezaei, E and Fereres, E and Ferrise, R and Garcia-Vila, M and Gayler, S and Gao, Y and Horan, H and Hoogenboom, G and Izaurralde, RC and Jabloun, M and Jones, CD and Kassie, BT and Kersebaum, KC and Klein, C and Koehler, AK and Liu, B and Minoli, S and Montesino San Martin, M and Müller, C and Naresh Kumar, S and Nendel, C and Olesen, JE and Palosuo, T and Porter, JR and Priesack, E and Ripoche, D and Semenov, MA and Stöckle, C and Stratonovitch, P and Streck, T and Supit, I and Tao, F and Van der Velde, M and Wallach, D and Wang, E and Webber, H and Wolf, J and Xiao, L and Zhang, Z and Zhao, Z and Zhu, Y and Ewert, F}, title = {Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {155-173}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14481}, pmid = {30549200}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Marie Curie/United Kingdom ; //Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Food Quality ; Grain Proteins/*analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Temperature ; Triticum/*chemistry/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.}, }
@article {pmid30548989, year = {2019}, author = {Dorado-Liñán, I and Piovesan, G and Martínez-Sancho, E and Gea-Izquierdo, G and Zang, C and Cañellas, I and Castagneri, D and Di Filippo, A and Gutiérrez, E and Ewald, J and Fernández-de-Uña, L and Hornstein, D and Jantsch, MC and Levanič, T and Mellert, KH and Vacchiano, G and Zlatanov, T and Menzel, A}, title = {Geographical adaptation prevails over species-specific determinism in trees' vulnerability to climate change at Mediterranean rear-edge forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {1296-1314}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14544}, pmid = {30548989}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Postdoctoral Junior Leader Fellowship Programme from "la Caixa" Banking Foundation/ ; RyC-2014-15864//Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness/ ; AGL 2014-61175-JIN//Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness/ ; 282250/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; //Bavarian State Forest Authority (Project MARGINS)/ ; S2013/MAE-2760//Comunidad de Madrid (Project BOSSANOVA)/ ; //IGSSE_TUM (Water03-IDDEC)/ ; 282250/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Climate change may reduce forest growth and increase forest mortality, which is connected to high carbon costs through reductions in gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns of vulnerability to both short-term extreme events and gradual environmental changes are quite uncertain across the species' limits of tolerance to dryness. Such information is fundamental for defining ecologically relevant upper limits of species tolerance to drought and, hence, to predict the risk of increased forest mortality and shifts in species composition. We investigate here to what extent the impact of short- and long-term environmental changes determines vulnerability to climate change of three evergreen conifers (Scots pine, silver fir, Norway spruce) and two deciduous hardwoods (European beech, sessile oak) tree species at their southernmost limits of distribution in the Mediterranean Basin. Finally, we simulated future forest growth under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios using a multispecies generalized linear mixed model. Our analysis provides four key insights into the patterns of species' vulnerability to climate change. First, site climatic marginality was significantly linked to the growth trends: increasing growth was related to less climatically limited sites. Second, estimated species-specific vulnerability did not match their a priori rank in drought tolerance: Scots pine and beech seem to be the most vulnerable species among those studied despite their contrasting physiologies. Third, adaptation to site conditions prevails over species-specific determinism in forest response to climate change. And fourth, regional differences in forests vulnerability to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin are linked to the influence of summer atmospheric circulation patterns, which are not correctly represented in global climate models. Thus, projections of forest performance should reconsider the traditional classification of tree species in functional types and critically evaluate the fine-scale limitations of the climate data generated by global climate models.}, }
@article {pmid30546038, year = {2018}, author = {Howard, AF}, title = {Asclepias Syriaca (Common Milkweed) flowering date shift in response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {17802}, pmid = {30546038}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Asclepias/*physiology ; Butterflies/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Pollination/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The consequences of altered flowering dates due to climate change can be severe, especially for plants that rely on coordinated flower and pollinator emergence for reproduction. The plant Asclepias syriaca (Common Milkweed) relies on pollinators for movement of its pollen and evidence suggests that it has recently been declining. Given these factors and this plant's importance as a host species for the declining Danaus plexippus (Monarch Butterfly), it is critical to determine if its flowering is being modified by climate change. As a first step to answering this question I quantified the relationship between climate and flowering date for A. syriaca using data from the USA National Phenology Network repository and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. I found that temperatures were higher than they had been historically (1895-2010) and mean flowering dates occurred earlier with higher temperatures. Additionally, there is a significant negative interactive effect of temperature and year on flowering date indicating that from 2011 through 2016 higher temperatures are correlated with increasingly earlier flowering dates. The change in flowering appears to be symmetrical in regards to the flowering time distribution, in that along with the mean, both maximum and minimum flowering dates are occurring earlier, as well. There is no evidence that earlier flowering is due to earlier initial growth or results in later fruit ripening. Consequences of this shift in flowering can only be speculated upon at this point, but due to the ecological importance of A. syriaca and its susceptibility to phenological mismatch, they should be considered when developing conservation plans for A. syriaca and the organisms for which it is a host.}, }
@article {pmid30544616, year = {2018}, author = {Pragna, P and Chauhan, SS and Sejian, V and Leury, BJ and Dunshea, FR}, title = {Climate Change and Goat Production: Enteric Methane Emission and Its Mitigation.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {30544616}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {The ability of an animal to cope and adapt itself to the changing climate virtually depends on the function of rumen and rumen inhabitants such as bacteria, protozoa, fungi, virus and archaea. Elevated ambient temperature during the summer months can have a significant influence on the basic physiology of the rumen, thereby affecting the nutritional status of the animals. Rumen volatile fatty acid (VFA) production decreases under conditions of extreme heat. Growing recent evidence suggests there are genetic variations among breeds of goats in the impact of heat stress on rumen fermentation pattern and VFA production. Most of the effects of heat stress on rumen fermentation and enteric methane (CH4) emission are attributed to differences in the rumen microbial population. Heat stress-induced rumen function impairment is mainly associated with an increase in Streptococcus genus bacteria and with a decrease in the bacteria of Fibrobactor genus. Apart from its major role in global warming and greenhouse effect, enteric CH4 is also considered as a dietary energy loss in goats. These effects warrant mitigating against CH4 production to ensure optimum economic return from goat farming as well as to reduce the impact on global warming as CH4 is one of the more potent greenhouse gases (GHG). The various strategies that can be implemented to mitigate enteric CH4 emission include nutritional interventions, different management strategies and applying advanced biotechnological tools to find solution to reduce CH4 production. Through these advanced technologies, it is possible to identify genetically superior animals with less CH4 production per unit feed intake. These efforts can help the farming community to sustain goat production in the changing climate scenario.}, }
@article {pmid30542175, year = {2018}, author = {Ham, YG}, title = {El Niño events will intensify under global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {564}, number = {7735}, pages = {192-193}, pmid = {30542175}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; *Global Warming ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid30542169, year = {2018}, author = {Searchinger, TD and Wirsenius, S and Beringer, T and Dumas, P}, title = {Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {564}, number = {7735}, pages = {249-253}, pmid = {30542169}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Animals ; Biofuels/*statistics &amp; numerical data/supply &amp; distribution ; Brazil ; Carbon Footprint/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Sequestration ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crops, Agricultural/metabolism ; Diet/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fertilizers/supply &amp; distribution ; Food Supply ; Forestry/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forests ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Livestock/metabolism ; Rain ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Land-use changes are critical for climate policy because native vegetation and soils store abundant carbon and their losses from agricultural expansion, together with emissions from agricultural production, contribute about 20 to 25 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions[1,2]. Most climate strategies require maintaining or increasing land-based carbon[3] while meeting food demands, which are expected to grow by more than 50 per cent by 2050[1,2,4]. A finite global land area implies that fulfilling these strategies requires increasing global land-use efficiency of both storing carbon and producing food. Yet measuring the efficiency of land-use changes from the perspective of greenhouse gas emissions is challenging, particularly when land outputs change, for example, from one food to another or from food to carbon storage in forests. Intuitively, if a hectare of land produces maize well and forest poorly, maize should be the more efficient use of land, and vice versa. However, quantifying this difference and the yields at which the balance changes requires a common metric that factors in different outputs, emissions from different agricultural inputs (such as fertilizer) and the different productive potentials of land due to physical factors such as rainfall or soils. Here we propose a carbon benefits index that measures how changes in the output types, output quantities and production processes of a hectare of land contribute to the global capacity to store carbon and to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions. This index does not evaluate biodiversity or other ecosystem values, which must be analysed separately. We apply the index to a range of land-use and consumption choices relevant to climate policy, such as reforesting pastures, biofuel production and diet changes. We find that these choices can have much greater implications for the climate than previously understood because standard methods for evaluating the effects of land use[4-11] on greenhouse gas emissions systematically underestimate the opportunity of land to store carbon if it is not used for agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid30523096, year = {2018}, author = {Kump, L}, title = {Climate change and marine mass extinction.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6419}, pages = {1113-1114}, doi = {10.1126/science.aav736}, pmid = {30523096}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid30523040, year = {2018}, author = {Limb, M}, title = {Health gains make actions to curb climate change cost neutral, says WHO.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {k5197}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.k5197}, pmid = {30523040}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid30541052, year = {2019}, author = {Dolezal, J and Dvorsky, M and Kopecky, M and Altman, J and Mudrak, O and Capkova, K and Rehakova, K and Macek, M and Liancourt, P}, title = {Functionally distinct assembly of vascular plants colonizing alpine cushions suggests their vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {123}, number = {4}, pages = {569-578}, pmid = {30541052}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Biodiversity ; Biomass ; Caryophyllaceae/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; India ; *Life History Traits ; Magnoliopsida/*growth &amp; development ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alpine cushion plants can initially facilitate other species during ecological succession, but later on can be negatively affected by their development, especially when beneficiaries possess traits allowing them to overrun their host. This can be reinforced by accelerated warming favouring competitively strong species over cold-adapted cushion specialists. However, little empirical research has addressed the trait-based mechanisms of these interactions. The ecological strategies of plants colonizing the cushion plant Thylacospermum caespitosum (Caryophyllaceae), a dominant pioneer of subnival zones, were studied in the Western Himalayas.<br><br>METHODS: To assess whether the cushion colonizers are phylogenetically and functionally distinct, 1668 vegetation samples were collected, both in open ground outside the cushions and inside their live and dead canopies, in two mountain ranges, Karakoram and Little Tibet. More than 50 plant traits related to growth, biomass allocation and resource acquisition were measured for target species, and the phylogenetic relationships of these species were studied [or determined].<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Species-based trait-environment analysis with phylogenetic correction showed that in both mountain ranges Thylacospermum colonizers are phylogenetically diverse but functionally similar and are functionally different from species preferring bare soil outside cushions. Successful colonizers are fast-growing, clonal graminoids and forbs, penetrating the cushion by rhizomes and stolons. They have higher root-to-shoot ratios, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and soil moisture and nutrient demands, sharing the syndrome of competitive species with broad elevation ranges typical of the late stages of primary succession. In contrast, the species from open ground have traits typical of stress-tolerant specialists from high and dry environments.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Species colonizing tight cushions of T. caespitosum are competitively strong graminoids and herbaceous perennials from alpine grasslands. Since climate change in the Himalayas favours these species, highly specialized subnival cushion plants may face intense competition and a greater risk of decline in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30540743, year = {2018}, author = {Gareau, BJ and Huang, X and Gareau, TP}, title = {Social and ecological conditions of cranberry production and climate change attitudes in New England.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e0207237}, pmid = {30540743}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; Farmers/psychology ; Female ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; Male ; Middle Aged ; New England ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Vaccinium macrocarpon/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Cranberry growers in New England are increasingly pressured by negative effects associated with global climate change, some of which are familiar to this group (such as precipitation fluctuations and pest pressures), others that are rather new (such as warmer winters that threaten needed chill hours for the plants to bloom). The first study of this population of its kind, we use a survey, supplemented with observations and interviews, to assess Massachusetts cranberry grower attitudes towards climate change, and whether certain conditions of production might be associated with their attitudes. Our findings suggest that certain personal and ecological conditions are associated with greater worry of climate change effects, and that communal conditions of the cranberry grower social network provide some ways to cope with a warming climate. While the cranberry growing community has created a strong social network that has allowed it to sustain production, a warming planet will likely require significant change in order to overcome general attitudes of climate skepticism so that cranberry production may continue in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30537359, year = {2019}, author = {La Sorte, FA and Horton, KG and Nilsson, C and Dokter, AM}, title = {Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {589-601}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14531}, pmid = {30537359}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Seasons ; United States ; *Wind ; }, abstract = {Current climate models and observations indicate that atmospheric circulation is being affected by global climate change. To assess how these changes may affect nocturnally migrating bird populations, we need to determine how current patterns of wind assistance at migration altitudes will be enhanced or reduced under future atmospheric conditions. Here, we use information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous United States to estimate the daily altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century at current migration altitudes. The prevailing westerlies at midlatitudes are projected to increase in strength during spring migration and decrease in strength to a lesser degree during autumn migration. Southerly winds will increase in strength across the continent during both spring and autumn migration, with the strongest gains occurring in the center of the continent. Wind assistance is projected to increase across the central (0.44 m/s; 10.1%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.32 m/s; 9.6%) during spring migration, and wind assistance is projected to decrease within the central (0.32 m/s; 19.3%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.17 m/s; 6.6%) during autumn migration. Thus, across a broad portion of the continent where migration intensity is greatest, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. These findings highlight the importance of placing climate change projections within a relevant ecological context informed through empirical observations, and the need to consider the possibility that climate change may generate both positive and negative implications for natural systems.}, }
@article {pmid30530689, year = {2018}, author = {Hof, C and Voskamp, A and Biber, MF and Böhning-Gaese, K and Engelhardt, EK and Niamir, A and Willis, SG and Hickler, T}, title = {Bioenergy cropland expansion may offset positive effects of climate change mitigation for global vertebrate diversity.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {52}, pages = {13294-13299}, pmid = {30530689}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Amphibians ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Crops, Agricultural ; *Ecosystem ; Mammals ; Species Specificity ; *Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {Climate and land-use change interactively affect biodiversity. Large-scale expansions of bioenergy have been suggested as an important component for climate change mitigation. Here we use harmonized climate and land-use projections to investigate their potential combined impacts on global vertebrate diversity under a low- and a high-level emission scenario. We combine climate-based species distribution models for the world's amphibians, birds, and mammals with land-use change simulations and identify areas threatened by both climate and land-use change in the future. The combined projected effects of climate and land-use change on vertebrate diversity are similar under the two scenarios, with land-use change effects being stronger under the low- and climate change effects under the high-emission scenario. Under the low-emission scenario, increases in bioenergy cropland may cause severe impacts in biodiversity that are not compensated by lower climate change impacts. Under this low-emission scenario, larger proportions of species distributions and a higher number of small-range species may become impacted by the combination of land-use and climate change than under the high-emission scenario, largely a result of bioenergy cropland expansion. Our findings highlight the need to carefully consider both climate and land-use change when projecting biodiversity impacts. We show that biodiversity is likely to suffer severely if bioenergy cropland expansion remains a major component of climate change mitigation strategies. Our study calls for an immediate and significant reduction in energy consumption for the benefit of both biodiversity and to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.}, }
@article {pmid30529965, year = {2019}, author = {Dong, Z and Driscoll, CT and Johnson, SL and Campbell, JL and Pourmokhtarian, A and Stoner, AMK and Hayhoe, K}, title = {Projections of water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under future climate change in an old-growth Douglas-fir forest in the western Cascade Range using a biogeochemical model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {656}, number = {}, pages = {608-624}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.377}, pmid = {30529965}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Models, Theoretical ; *Nitrogen Cycle ; Oregon ; Pseudotsuga/*physiology ; Stress, Physiological ; *Water Cycle ; }, abstract = {Statistically downscaled climate change scenarios from four General Circulation Models for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were applied as inputs to a biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, to examine potential future dynamics of water, carbon, and nitrogen in an old-growth Douglas-fir forest in the western Cascade Range. Projections show 56% to 77% increases in stomatal conductance throughout the year from 1986-2010 to 2076-2100, and 65% to 104% increases in leaf carbon assimilation between October and June over the same period. However, future dynamics of water and carbon under the RCP scenarios are affected by a 49% to 86% reduction in foliar biomass resulting from severe air temperature and humidity stress to the forest in summer. Important implications of future decreases in foliar biomass include 1) 20% to 71% decreases in annual transpiration which increase soil moisture by 7% to 15% in summer and fall; 2) decreases in photosynthesis by 77% and soil organic matter by 62% under the high radiative forcing scenario; and 3) altered foliar and soil carbon to nitrogen stoichiometry. Potential carbon dioxide fertilization effects on vegetation are projected to 1) amplify decreases in transpiration by 4% to 9% and increases in soil moisture in summer and fall by 1% to 2%; and 2) alleviate decreases in photosynthesis by 4%; while 3) having negligible effects on the dynamics of nitrogen. Our projections suggest that future decrease in transpiration and moderate water holding capacity may mitigate soil moisture stress to the old-growth Douglas-fir forest. Future increases in nitrogen concentration in soil organic matter are projected to alleviate the decrease in net nitrogen mineralization despite a reduction in decomposition of soil organic matter by the end of the century.}, }
@article {pmid30529418, year = {2019}, author = {Terzi, S and Torresan, S and Schneiderbauer, S and Critto, A and Zebisch, M and Marcomini, A}, title = {Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {232}, number = {}, pages = {759-771}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.100}, pmid = {30529418}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on our society, the economy and the environment. According to future scenarios, mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including changes in the water cycle (e.g. rainfall extremes, melting of glaciers, river runoff), loss of biodiversity and ecosystems services, damages to local economy (drinking water supply, hydropower generation, agricultural suitability) and human safety (risks of natural hazards). This is due to their exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. temperature regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. mountain species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). These characteristics call for the application of risk assessment methodologies able to describe the complex interactions among multiple hazards, biophysical and socio-economic systems, towards climate change adaptation. Current approaches used to assess climate change risks often address individual risks separately and do not fulfil a comprehensive representation of cumulative effects associated to different hazards (i.e. compound events). Moreover, pioneering multi-layer single risk assessment (i.e. overlapping of single-risk assessments addressing different hazards) is still widely used, causing misleading evaluations of multi-risk processes. This raises key questions about the distinctive features of multi-risk assessments and the available tools and methods to address them. Here we present a review of five cutting-edge modelling approaches (Bayesian networks, agent-based models, system dynamic models, event and fault trees, and hybrid models), exploring their potential applications for multi-risk assessment and climate change adaptation in mountain regions. The comparative analysis sheds light on advantages and limitations of each approach, providing a roadmap for methodological and technical implementation of multi-risk assessment according to distinguished criteria (e.g. spatial and temporal dynamics, uncertainty management, cross-sectoral assessment, adaptation measures integration, data required and level of complexity). The results show limited applications of the selected methodologies in addressing the climate and risks challenge in mountain environments. In particular, system dynamic and hybrid models demonstrate higher potential for further applications to represent climate change effects on multi-risk processes for an effective implementation of climate adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid30529236, year = {2019}, author = {Zhu, L and Wang, L and Ma, CS}, title = {Sporadic short temperature events cannot be neglected in predicting impacts of climate change on small insects.}, journal = {Journal of insect physiology}, volume = {112}, number = {}, pages = {48-56}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinsphys.2018.12.003}, pmid = {30529236}, issn = {1879-1611}, mesh = {Animals ; Aphids/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Extreme Heat ; Fertility ; *Life History Traits ; Longevity ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Climate warming is characterized by increase in extreme heat events (EHEs). EHEs and mild temperature periods alternate with each other and form complex climate scenarios. Among these scenarios, low-frequency and short-duration extreme heat events during long mild periods (sporadic short EHEs) and low-frequency and short-duration mild periods during long extreme heat events (sporadic short mild periods) commonly occur in nature. The biological effects of these two types of temperature events have not been thoroughly elucidated to date. To clarify the biological effects of these temperature events on organisms, we selected the English grain aphid, a globally important cereal pest, as our model system. We exposed aphids to simulated 24-h diurnal fluctuating temperatures, inserted these events during the wheat growing season and then investigated development, adult longevity, fecundity, survival, and demographic parameters. We found that sporadic short mild periods during a long EHE could improve their life history traits. Increasing the duration of mild periods from 1 day to 2 days did not significantly change their demographic performance. Sporadic short EHEs during a long mild period did not significantly affect vital rates, while increasing the duration of EHEs from 1 day to 2 days worsened the aphids' performance. We found that short mild episodes in the hot season may benefit small insects to buffer long duration heatwaves. We discussed how sporadic short mild periods during a long EHE supplied aphids a chance to recover from heat stress. Thus, we suggest that sporadic temperature events should be considered in population prediction of small insects under climate change and should be integrated into pest management.}, }
@article {pmid30527411, year = {2018}, author = {Turner, B}, title = {Tackling antimicrobial resistance and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10163}, pages = {2435-2436}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32413-9}, pmid = {30527411}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Anti-Bacterial Agents/*therapeutic use ; Biomedical Research/economics ; *Climate Change ; *Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; Financing, Government ; Humans ; Ireland ; }, }
@article {pmid30526940, year = {2018}, author = {Andrews, O and Le Quéré, C and Kjellstrom, T and Lemke, B and Haines, A}, title = {Implications for workability and survivability in populations exposed to extreme heat under climate change: a modelling study.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {12}, pages = {e540-e547}, pmid = {30526940}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Extreme Heat ; *Global Health ; Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Occupational Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Changes in temperature and humidity due to climate change affect living and working conditions. An understanding of the effects of different global temperature changes on population health is needed to inform the continued implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement and to increase global ambitions for greater cuts in emissions. By use of historical and projected climate conditions, we aimed to investigate the effects of climate change on workability (ie, the ability to work) and survivability (the ability to survive).<br><br>METHODS: In this modelling study, we estimated the changes in populations exposed to excessive heat stress between the recent past (ie, 1986-2005) and 2100. We used climate data from four models to calculate the wet-bulb globe temperature, an established heat exposure index that can be used to assess the effects of temperature, humidity, and other environmental factors on humans. We defined and applied thresholds for risks to workability (where the monthly mean of daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature exceeds 34&#xb0;C) and survivability (where the maximum daily wet-bulb globe temperature exceeds 40&#xb0;C for 3 consecutive days), and we used population projections to quantify changes in risk associated with different changes to the global temperature.<br><br>FINDINGS: The risks to workability increase substantially with global mean surface temperature in all four climate models, with approximately 1 billion people affected globally after an increase in the global temperature of about 2&#xb7;5&#xb0;C above pre-industrial levels. There is greater variability between climate models for exposures above the threshold for risks to survivability than for risks to workability. The number of people who are likely to be exposed to heat stress exceeding the survivability threshold increases with global temperature change, to reach around 20 million people globally after an increase of about 2&#xb7;5&#xb0;C, estimated from the median of the models, but with a large model uncertainty. More people are likely to be exposed to heat stress in urban than in rural areas. Population exposure can fluctuate over time and change substantially within one decade.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Exposure to excessive heat stress is projected to be widespread in tropical or subtropical low-income and middle-income countries, highlighting the need to build on the Paris Agreement regarding global temperature targets, to protect populations who have contributed little to greenhouse gas emissions. The non-linear dependency of heat exposure risk on temperature highlights the importance of understanding thresholds in coupled human-climate systems.<br><br>FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.}, }
@article {pmid30526935, year = {2018}, author = {Landrigan, P and Fuller, R and Haines, A and Watts, N and McCarthy, G}, title = {Pollution prevention and climate change mitigation: measuring the health benefits of comprehensive interventions.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {12}, pages = {e515-e516}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30226-2}, pmid = {30526935}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Global Health ; Humans ; Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid30521450, year = {2018}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Zhang, Y}, title = {The &lt;em&gt;MJA-Lancet&lt;/em&gt; Countdown on health and climate change: Australian policy inaction threatens lives(Summary).}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {209}, number = {11}, pages = {474-475}, doi = {10.5694/mja18.00789ps}, pmid = {30521450}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Biomarkers ; *Global Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid30521429, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, Y and Beggs, PJ and Bambrick, H and Berry, HL and Linnenluecke, MK and Trueck, S and Alders, R and Bi, P and Boylan, SM and Green, D and Guo, Y and Hanigan, IC and Hanna, EG and Malik, A and Morgan, GG and Stevenson, M and Tong, S and Watts, N and Capon, AG}, title = {The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australian policy inaction threatens lives.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {209}, number = {11}, pages = {474}, doi = {10.5694/mja18.00789}, pmid = {30521429}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Biomarkers ; *Global Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate plays an important role in human health and it is well established that climate change can have very significant impacts in this regard. In partnership with The Lancet and the MJA, we present the inaugural Australian Countdown assessment of progress on climate change and health. This comprehensive assessment examines 41 indicators across five broad sections: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. These indicators and the methods used for each are largely consistent with those of the Lancet Countdown global assessment published in October 2017, but with an Australian focus. Significant developments include the addition of a new indicator on mental health. Overall, we find that Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In a number of respects, Australia has gone backwards and now lags behind other high income countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. Examples include the persistence of a very high carbon-intensive energy system in Australia, and its slow transition to renewables and low carbon electricity generation. However, we also find some examples of good progress, such as heatwave response planning. Given the overall poor state of progress on climate change and health in Australia, this country now has an enormous opportunity to take action and protect human health and lives. Australia has the technical knowhow and intellect to do this, and our annual updates of this assessment will track Australia's engagement with and progress on this vitally important issue.}, }
@article {pmid30518902, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, Y and Ramanathan, V and Victor, DG}, title = {Global warming will happen faster than we think.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {564}, number = {7734}, pages = {30-32}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-07586-5}, pmid = {30518902}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Air Pollution/analysis ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Disasters/prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Droughts/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Extreme Heat ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Goals ; Greenhouse Effect/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; *Policy Making ; Politics ; Risk Assessment ; Social Change ; Time Factors ; Wildfires/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid30518295, year = {2019}, author = {Slatin, C}, title = {Climate Change Action Requires Unity Among Movements for Justice and Peace.}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {557-562}, doi = {10.1177/1048291118815900}, pmid = {30518295}, issn = {1541-3772}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cooperative Behavior ; *Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid30518045, year = {2018}, author = {Yu, Q and Wang, F and Yan, W and Zhang, F and Lv, S and Li, Y}, title = {Carbon and Nitrogen Burial and Response to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Disturbance in Chaohu Lake, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {30518045}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Geologic Sediments/*chemistry ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Lakes/*chemistry ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Lakes are a crucial component of the global carbon and nitrogen cycle. As a trend of enhanced human activities and climate change, the mechanisms of burial remain poorly understood. In this study, diverse biogeochemical techniques were applied to analyze the temporal variation of organic carbon and nitrogen burial rates in Chaohu Lake. The results showed that burial rates have ranged from 9.39 to 35.87 g C m[-2] yr[-1] for carbon and from 1.66 to 5.67 g N m[-2] yr[-1] for nitrogen since the 1860s. The average rates were 19.6 g C m[-2] yr[-1] and 3.14 g N m[-2] yr[-1] after the 1970s, which were significantly higher than the rate before the 1970s, showing an increasing trend. The decrease of C/N ratios as well as organic matter δ[13]C values indicates that the major organic matter source in sediment has been algal production since the 1970s. The increase of δ[15]N values indicated that the promotion in productivity was stimulated by nutrient input from sewage and agricultural runoff. The burial rates of organic carbon and nitrogen were significantly positively related to socio-economics and temperature, indicating that Chaohu Lake will become an increasing carbon and nitrogen pool under conditions of enhanced human activities and intensive precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid30507972, year = {2018}, author = {Olusanya, HO and van Zyll de Jong, M}, title = {Assessing the vulnerability of freshwater fishes to climate change in Newfoundland and Labrador.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e0208182}, pmid = {30507972}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Migration/physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Decision Making ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/*methods ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Fresh Water ; Newfoundland and Labrador ; Reproduction/physiology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Freshwater fish populations are rapidly declining globally due to the impacts of rapid climate change and existing non-climatic anthropogenic stressors. In response to these drivers, freshwater fishes are responding by shifting their distribution range, altering the timing of migration and spawning and through demographic processes. By 2050, the mean daily air temperature is predicted to increase by 2 to 3 degrees C in insular Newfoundland and by 3 to 4 degrees C in Labrador. Mean daily precipitation is also projected to increase in all locations, with increased intensity projected for several regions. To mitigate negative consequences of these changes, managers require analytical approaches that describe the vulnerability of fish to climate change. To address this need, the current study adopts the National Marine Fisheries Service vulnerability assessment framework to characterize the vulnerability of freshwater fishes in Newfoundland and Labrador. Twelve vulnerability indicators were developed from an extensive literature review and applied to the assessment. Experts were solicited using an online questionnaire survey and scores for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were collated and analyzed to derive a final vulnerability score and rank for each species. The analysis showed one species to be of high-very high vulnerability, two species were highly vulnerable while four species were moderately vulnerable to climate change. The result provides insight into the factors that drive vulnerability of freshwater fishes in the region, this information is significant to decision-makers and other stakeholders engaged in managing freshwater fish resources in Newfoundland and Labrador.}, }
@article {pmid30503045, year = {2018}, author = {Watts, N and Amann, M and Arnell, N and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Belesova, K and Berry, H and Bouley, T and Boykoff, M and Byass, P and Cai, W and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Chambers, J and Daly, M and Dasandi, N and Davies, M and Depoux, A and Dominguez-Salas, P and Drummond, P and Ebi, KL and Ekins, P and Montoya, LF and Fischer, H and Georgeson, L and Grace, D and Graham, H and Hamilton, I and Hartinger, S and Hess, J and Kelman, I and Kiesewetter, G and Kjellstrom, T and Kniveton, D and Lemke, B and Liang, L and Lott, M and Lowe, R and Sewe, MO and Martinez-Urtaza, J and Maslin, M and McAllister, L and Mikhaylov, SJ and Milner, J and Moradi-Lakeh, M and Morrissey, K and Murray, K and Nilsson, M and Neville, T and Oreszczyn, T and Owfi, F and Pearman, O and Pencheon, D and Pye, S and Rabbaniha, M and Robinson, E and Rocklöv, J and Saxer, O and Schütte, S and Semenza, JC and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Steinbach, R and Tabatabaei, M and Tomei, J and Trinanes, J and Wheeler, N and Wilkinson, P and Gong, P and Montgomery, H and Costello, A}, title = {The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10163}, pages = {2479-2514}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32594-7}, pmid = {30503045}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; MR/R015600/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Environmental Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Financing, Organized ; *Global Health ; Health Planning/economics ; *Health Policy ; Health Services Research ; Humans ; Politics ; Public Health ; Renewable Energy ; Research Report ; }, }
@article {pmid30503043, year = {2018}, author = {The Lancet, }, title = {Humanising health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10162}, pages = {2326}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)33016-2}, pmid = {30503043}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; *Humanism ; }, }
@article {pmid30515228, year = {2018}, author = {Hess, JJ and Lm, S and Knowlton, K and Saha, S and Dutta, P and Ganguly, P and Tiwari, A and Jaiswal, A and Sheffield, P and Sarkar, J and Bhan, SC and Begda, A and Shah, T and Solanki, B and Mavalankar, D}, title = {Building Resilience to Climate Change: Pilot Evaluation of the Impact of India's First Heat Action Plan on All-Cause Mortality.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2018}, number = {}, pages = {7973519}, pmid = {30515228}, issn = {1687-9813}, support = {K23 ES024127/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R21 TW009535/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Humans ; India ; *Mortality ; Pilot Projects ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Ahmedabad implemented South Asia's first heat action plan (HAP) after a 2010 heatwave. This study evaluates the HAP's impact on all-cause mortality in 2014-2015 relative to a 2007-2010 baseline.<br><br>METHODS: We analyzed daily maximum temperature (T max)-mortality relationships before and after HAP. We estimated rate ratios (RRs) for daily mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models and mortality incidence rates (IRs) for HAP warning days, comparing pre- and post-HAP periods, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs). We estimated the number of deaths avoided after HAP implementation using pre- and post-HAP IRs.<br><br>RESULTS: The maximum pre-HAP RR was 2.34 (95%CI 1.98-2.76) at 47&#xb0;C (lag 0), and the maximum post-HAP RR was 1.25 (1.02-1.53) estimated at 47&#xb0;C (lag 0). Post-to-pre-HAP nonlagged mortality IRR for T max over 40&#xb0;C was 0.95 (0.73-1.22) and 0.73 (0.29-1.81) for T max over 45&#xb0;C. An estimated 1,190 (95%CI 162-2,218) average annualized deaths were avoided in the post-HAP period.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Extreme heat and HAP warnings after implementation were associated with decreased summertime all-cause mortality rates, with largest declines at highest temperatures. Ahmedabad's plan can serve as a guide for other cities attempting to increase resilience to extreme heat.}, }
@article {pmid30504017, year = {2019}, author = {Sarkodie, SA and Strezov, V}, title = {Economic, social and governance adaptation readiness for mitigation of climate change vulnerability: Evidence from 192 countries.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {656}, number = {}, pages = {150-164}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.349}, pmid = {30504017}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Adaptation strategies have become critical in climate change mitigation and impact reduction, to safeguard population and the ecosystem from irreparable damage. While developed countries have integrated adaptation plans and policies into their developmental agenda, developing countries are facilitating or yet to initiate adaptation policies in their development. This study examines the nexus between climate change vulnerability and adaptation readiness in 192 UN countries using mapping and panel data models. The study reveals Africa as the most vulnerable continent to climate change with high sensitivity, high exposure, and low adaptive capacity. Developed countries, including Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Sweden, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Spain, and Germany, are less vulnerable to climate change due to strong economic, governance and social adaptation readiness. International commitment from developed countries to developing countries is essential to strengthen their resilience, economic readiness and adaptive capacity to climate-related events.}, }
@article {pmid30512074, year = {2018}, author = {Mukundan, R and Scheerer, M and Gelda, RK and Owens, EM}, title = {Probabilistic Estimation of Stream Turbidity and Application under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {6}, pages = {1522-1529}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2018.06.0229}, pmid = {30512074}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Hydrology ; Water Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Streamflow-based rating curves are widely used to estimate turbidity or suspended sediment concentrations in streams. However, such estimates are often inaccurate at the event scale due to inter- and intra-event variability in sediment-streamflow relationships. In this study, we use a quantile regression approach to derive a probabilistic distribution of turbidity predictions for Esopus Creek, a major stream in one of the watersheds that supply drinking water to New York City, using measured daily mean streamflow-turbidity data pairs for 2003 to 2016. Although a single regression curve can underpredict or overpredict the actual observation, quantile regression can estimate a range of possible turbidity values for a given value of streamflow. Regression relationships for various quantiles were applied to streamflows simulated by a watershed model to predict stream turbidity under: (i) the observed historical climate, and (ii) a future climate derived from 20 global climate model (GCM) scenarios. Future scenarios using quantile regression in combination with these GCMs and a stochastic weather generator indicated an increase in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological events that may generate high stream turbidity and cause potential water quality challenges to the water supply. The methods outlined in this study can be used for probabilistic estimation of stream turbidity for operational decisions and can be part of a vulnerability-based method to explore climate impacts on water resources.}, }
@article {pmid30511643, year = {2018}, author = {Bjornsson, H}, title = {[Climate change and health].}, journal = {Laeknabladid}, volume = {104}, number = {12}, pages = {539}, doi = {10.17992/lbl.2018.12.205}, pmid = {30511643}, issn = {0023-7213}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Iceland ; }, }
@article {pmid30511479, year = {2019}, author = {Arshad, S and Ahmad, M and Saboor, A and Ibrahim, FH and Mustafa, MRU and Zafar, M and Ashfaq, S}, title = {Role of trees in climate change and their authentication through scanning electron microscopy.}, journal = {Microscopy research and technique}, volume = {82}, number = {2}, pages = {92-100}, doi = {10.1002/jemt.23106}, pmid = {30511479}, issn = {1097-0029}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Microscopy, Electron, Scanning ; Pakistan ; Seeds/classification/ultrastructure ; Trees/*classification/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the most realistic theory of this era. Sudden and drastic changes are happening on the earth and the survival of mankind is becoming questionable in the future. The plants play the key role in controlling the climate change. The study emphasizes on role of trees in the cop up or damaging the climate of this earth, whether they are medicinal trees or economically important trees. Due to the overgrazing and intense deforestation the climate is being affected hazardously. The global warming phenomenon is occurring due to the less availability of trees and more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In total 20 plants were collected from across the Pakistan on the basis of their abundance and their key roles. Out of which seeds of eight plants were scanned through scanning electron microscope for correct authentication and importance of these medicinally important trees in mitigating the climate change. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS: The role of forest sector in the climate's change mitigation. Medicinally and economically important tree species across Pakistan. By using SEM, Ultra seed sculpturing features as an authentication tool. To formulate some policies to stop or control deforestation.}, }
@article {pmid30509907, year = {2018}, author = {Olson, JR}, title = {Predicting combined effects of land use and climate change on river and stream salinity.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1764}, pages = {}, pmid = {30509907}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Industrial Development ; Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/*chemistry ; *Salinity ; United States ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Agricultural, industrial and urban development have all contributed to increased salinity in streams and rivers, but the likely effects of future development and climate change are unknown. I developed two empirical models to estimate how these combined effects might affect salinity by the end of this century (measured as electrical conductivity, EC). The first model predicts natural background from static (e.g. geology and soils) and dynamic (i.e. climate and vegetation) environmental factors and explained 78% of the variation in EC. I then compared the estimated background EC with current measurements at 2001 sites chosen probabilistically from all conterminous USA streams. EC was more than 50% greater at 34% of these sites. The second model predicts deviation of EC from background as a function of human land use and environmental factors and explained 60% of the variation in alteration from background. I then predicted the effects of climate and land use change on EC at the end of the century by replacing dynamic variables with published projections of future conditions based on the A2 emissions scenario. By the end of the century, the median EC is predicted to increase from 0.319 mS cm[-1] to 0.524 mS cm[-1] with over 50% of streams having greater than 50% increases in EC and 35% more than doubling their EC. Most of the change is related to increases in human land use, with climate change accounting for only 12% of the increase. In extreme cases, increased salinity may make water unsuitable for human use, but widespread moderate increases are likely a greater threat to stream ecosystems owing to the elimination of low EC habitats.This article is part of the theme issue 'Salt in freshwaters: causes, ecological consequences and future prospects'.}, }
@article {pmid30509906, year = {2018}, author = {Le, TDH and Kattwinkel, M and Schützenmeister, K and Olson, JR and Hawkins, CP and Schäfer, RB}, title = {Predicting current and future background ion concentrations in German surface water under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1764}, pages = {}, pmid = {30509906}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fresh Water ; Germany ; Ions/*analysis ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Salts/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Salinization of surface waters is a global environmental issue that can pose a regional risk to freshwater organisms, potentially leading to high environmental and economic costs. Global environmental change including climate and land use change can increase the transport of ions into surface waters. We fit both multiple linear regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models on a large spatial dataset to predict Ca[2+] (266 sites), Mg[2+] (266 sites), and [Formula: see text] (357 sites) ion concentrations as well as electrical conductivity (EC-a proxy for total dissolved solids with 410 sites) in German running water bodies. Predictions in both types of models were driven by the major factors controlling salinity including geologic and soil properties, climate, vegetation and topography. The predictive power of the two types of models was very similar, with RF explaining 71-76% of the spatial variation in ion concentrations and LR explaining 70-75% of the variance. Mean squared errors for predictions were all smaller than 0.06. The factors most strongly associated with stream ion concentrations varied among models but rock chemistry and climate were the most dominant. The RF model was subsequently used to forecast the changes in EC that were likely to occur for the period of 2070 to 2100 in response to just climate change-i.e. no additional effects of other anthropogenic activities. The future forecasting shows approximately 10% and 15% increases in mean EC for representative concentration pathways 2.6 and 8.5 (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios, respectively.This article is part of the theme issue 'Salt in freshwaters: causes, ecological consequences and future prospects'.}, }
@article {pmid30509664, year = {2018}, author = {Diele-Viegas, LM and Rocha, CFD}, title = {Unraveling the influences of climate change in Lepidosauria (Reptilia).}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {78}, number = {}, pages = {401-414}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2018.11.005}, pmid = {30509664}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Body Temperature ; *Climate Change ; Reptiles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans and many species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances and interactions in response to these changes. Projections of future climate change are uncertain, but the Earth's warming is likely to exceed 4.8 °C by the end of 21th century. The vulnerability of a population, species, group or system due to climate change is a function of impact of the changes on the evaluated system (exposure and sensitivity) and adaptive capacity as a response to this impact, and the relationship between these elements will determine the degree of species vulnerability. Predicting the potential future risks to biodiversity caused by climate change has become an extremely active field of research, and several studies in the last two decades had focused on determining possible impacts of climate change on Lepidosaurians, at a global, regional and local level. Here we conducted a systematic review of published studies in order to seek to what extent the accumulated knowledge currently allow us to identify potential trends or patterns regarding climate change effects on lizards, snakes, amphisbaenians and tuatara. We conducted a literature search among online literature databases/catalogues and recorded 255 studies addressing the influence of climate change on a total of 1918 species among 49 Lepidosaurian's families. The first study addressing this subject is dated 1999. Most of the studies focused on species distribution, followed by thermal biology, reproductive biology, behavior and genetics. We concluded that an integrative approach including most of these characteristics and also bioclimatic and environmental variables, may lead to consistent and truly effective strategies for species conservation, aiming to buffer the climate change effects on this group of reptiles.}, }
@article {pmid30498774, year = {2018}, author = {Dahlke, FT and Butzin, M and Nahrgang, J and Puvanendran, V and Mortensen, A and Pörtner, HO and Storch, D}, title = {Northern cod species face spawning habitat losses if global warming exceeds 1.5°C.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {11}, pages = {eaas8821}, pmid = {30498774}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Animals ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Gadus morhua/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; *Reproduction ; Salinity ; }, abstract = {Rapid climate change in the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic poses a threat to some of the world's largest fish populations. Impacts of warming and acidification may become accessible through mechanism-based risk assessments and projections of future habitat suitability. We show that ocean acidification causes a narrowing of embryonic thermal ranges, which identifies the suitability of spawning habitats as a critical life-history bottleneck for two abundant cod species. Embryonic tolerance ranges linked to climate simulations reveal that ever-increasing CO2 emissions [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5] will deteriorate suitability of present spawning habitat for both Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) by 2100. Moderate warming (RCP4.5) may avert dangerous climate impacts on Atlantic cod but still leaves few spawning areas for the more vulnerable Polar cod, which also loses the benefits of an ice-covered ocean. Emissions following RCP2.6, however, support largely unchanged habitat suitability for both species, suggesting that risks are minimized if warming is held "below 2°C, if not 1.5°C," as pledged by the Paris Agreement.}, }
@article {pmid30498339, year = {2018}, author = {Hoffmann, C and Hanisch, M and Heinsohn, JB and Dostal, V and Jehn, M and Liebers, U and Pankow, W and Donaldson, GC and Witt, C}, title = {Increased vulnerability of COPD patient groups to urban climate in view of global warming.}, journal = {International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {3493-3501}, pmid = {30498339}, issn = {1178-2005}, mesh = {Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Disease Progression ; Female ; Germany/epidemiology ; Health Status ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Patient Admission ; Prognosis ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/diagnosis/*epidemiology/physiopathology/therapy ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; *Urban Health ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: Patients with COPD show an increase in acute exacerbations (AECOPD) during the cold season as well as during heat waves in the summer months. Due to global climate changes, extreme weather conditions are likely to occur more frequently in the future. The goal of this study was to identify patient groups most at risk of exacerbations during the four seasons of the year and to determine at which temperature threshold the daily hospital admissions due to AECOPD increase during the summer.<br><br>PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analyzed retrospective demographic and medical data of 990 patients, who were hospitalized for AECOPD in Berlin, Germany. The cases were grouped into the following cohorts: "spring" (admission between March and May), "summer" (June - August), "autumn" (September - November), and "winter" (December - February). AECOPD hospital admissions from 2006 and 2010 were grouped into a "hot summer" cohort and cases from 2011 and 2012 into a "cold summer" data-set. Climate data were obtained from the German Meteorological Office.<br><br>RESULTS: Patients hospitalized for a COPD exacerbation during winter were significantly older than summertime patients (P=0.040) and also thinner than patients exacerbating in spring (P=0.042). COPD exacerbations during hot summer periods happened more often to patients with a history of myocardial infarction (P=0.014) or active smokers (P=0.011). An AECOPD during colder summers occurred in patients with a higher Charlson index, who suffered in increased numbers from peripheral vascular diseases (P=0.016) or tumors (P=0.004). Summertime hospital admissions increased above a daily minimum temperature of 18.3&#xb0;C (P=0.006).<br><br>CONCLUSION: The identification of COPD patient groups most at risk for climate related exacerbations enables climate-adapted prevention through patient guidance and treatment. In view of global climate changes, discovering vulnerabilities and implementing adaptive measures will be of growing importance.}, }
@article {pmid30497656, year = {2018}, author = {Arabena, K and Armstrong, F and Berry, H and Brooks, P and Capon, T and Crabb, B and Demaio, A and Doherty, P and Lewin, S and Lo, S and Lopez, A and McMichael, C and McPake, B and Moodie, R and Nolan, T and Ruff, T and Sainsbury, P and Selvey, L and Shearman, D and Stanley, F and Talley, NJ and Watts, N}, title = {Australian health professionals' statement on climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10160}, pages = {2169-2170}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32610-2}, pmid = {30497656}, issn = {1474-547X}, }
@article {pmid30496047, year = {2018}, author = {Figueres, C and Landrigan, PJ and Fuller, R}, title = {Tackling air pollution, climate change, and NCDs: time to pull together.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {392}, number = {10157}, pages = {1502-1503}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32740-5}, pmid = {30496047}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Noncommunicable Diseases/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid30487170, year = {2018}, author = {Wise, J}, title = {Climate change is outpacing response, warn experts.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {k5018}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.k5018}, pmid = {30487170}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid30486282, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, L and Liao, W and Liu, C and Zhang, N and Zhong, S and Huang, C}, title = {Associations between Knowledge of the Causes and Perceived Impacts of Climate Change: A Cross-Sectional Survey of Medical, Public Health and Nursing Students in Universities in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {30486282}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; China ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Public Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Students, Medical/*psychology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Students, Nursing/*psychology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Universities ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to measure the knowledge and perceptions of medical, public health, and nursing students about climate change and its impacts, and to identify associations between the knowledge and perceptions. Data were from a nationwide cross-sectional survey of 1387 students sampled in five different regional universities in China (April[-]May 2017). The knowledge and perceptions of the participants were collected by self-administered questionnaires. We found that most respondents believed that climate change is generally "bad" (83%) and bad for human health (88%), while 67% believed that climate change is controllable. The vast majority of respondents acknowledged illness conditions resulting from poor air quality (95%), heat stress (93%), and extreme weather events (91%) as potential impacts of climate change. Nevertheless, only 39% recognized malnutrition as a consequence of food deprivation resulting from climate change. Around 58% of respondents could correctly identify the causes of climate change. The knowledge of the causes of climate change was not associated with the ability to recognize the health consequences of climate change. However, the knowledge of causes of climate change was a significant predictor of increased awareness of the negative impacts of climate change between the medical and nursing students, although this was not the case among their public health counterparts. Poor knowledge about the causes of climate change is evident among students in China. They are able to recognize the direct links between weather events and health, but less likely to understand the consequences involving complicated pathways. Research and training into the underlying mechanisms of health impacts of climate change needs to be strengthened.}, }
@article {pmid30486244, year = {2018}, author = {Rakotoarison, N and Raholijao, N and Razafindramavo, LM and Rakotomavo, ZAPH and Rakotoarisoa, A and Guillemot, JS and Randriamialisoa, ZJ and Mafilaza, V and Ramiandrisoa, VAMP and Rajaonarivony, R and Andrianjafinirina, S and Tata, V and Vololoniaina, MC and Rakotomanana, F and Raminosoa, VM}, title = {Assessment of Risk, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change by the Health Sector in Madagascar.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {30486244}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Diarrhea/epidemiology ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Incidence ; Madagascar/epidemiology ; Malaria/epidemiology ; Malnutrition/epidemiology ; Population Surveillance/*methods ; Public Health Surveillance/*methods ; Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Madagascar is cited as one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change, with significant impacts to the health of its population. In this study, the vulnerability of Madagascar's health sector to climate change was assessed and appropriate adaptation measures were identified. In order to assess climate risks, vulnerability and identify adaptation options, the Madagascar Ministry of Public Health as well as the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service worked in close collaboration with a team of local experts to conduct a literature review, field surveys, and analyses of current and future climate and health trends. Four climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern are described in the study: acute respiratory infections (ARI), diarrhea, malnutrition, and malaria. Baseline conditions of these four diseases from 2000 to 2014 show acute respiratory infections and diarrheal diseases are increasing in incidence; while incidence of malnutrition and malaria decreased over this period. To assess future impacts in Madagascar, this baseline information was used with climate projections for the two scenarios-RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5-for the periods 2016[-]2035, 2036[-]2070 and 2071[-]2100. Future climate conditions are shown to exacerbate and increase the incidence of all four climate sensitive diseases. Further analysis of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to the climate hazards suggests that the health sector in four regions of Madagascar is particularly vulnerable. The study recommends adaptation measures to improve the monitoring and early warning systems for climate sensitive diseases, as well as to reduce population vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid30484936, year = {2019}, author = {Cohen, JM and Civitello, DJ and Venesky, MD and McMahon, TA and Rohr, JR}, title = {An interaction between climate change and infectious disease drove widespread amphibian declines.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {927-937}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14489}, pmid = {30484936}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {R01GM109499/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; R01TW010286-01/NH/NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Bufonidae/*microbiology ; Chytridiomycota/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/physiopathology ; *Disease Susceptibility ; Endangered Species ; Mycoses/epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change might drive species declines by altering species interactions, such as host-parasite interactions. However, few studies have combined experiments, field data, and historical climate records to provide evidence that an interaction between climate change and disease caused any host declines. A recently proposed hypothesis, the thermal mismatch hypothesis, could identify host species that are vulnerable to disease under climate change because it predicts that cool- and warm-adapted hosts should be vulnerable to disease at unusually warm and cool temperatures, respectively. Here, we conduct experiments on Atelopus zeteki, a critically endangered, captively bred frog that prefers relatively cool temperatures, and show that frogs have high pathogen loads and high mortality rates only when exposed to a combination of the pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and high temperatures, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Further, we tested various hypotheses to explain recent declines experienced by species in the amphibian genus Atelopus that are thought to be associated with B. dendrobatidis and reveal that these declines are best explained by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. As in our experiments, only the combination of rapid increases in temperature and infectious disease could account for the patterns of declines, especially in species adapted to relatively cool environments. After combining experiments on declining hosts with spatiotemporal patterns in the field, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that widespread species declines, including possible extinctions, have been driven by an interaction between increasing temperatures and infectious disease. Moreover, our findings suggest that hosts adapted to relatively cool conditions will be most vulnerable to the combination of increases in mean temperature and emerging infectious diseases.}, }
@article {pmid30483276, year = {2018}, author = {Henn, JJ and Buzzard, V and Enquist, BJ and Halbritter, AH and Klanderud, K and Maitner, BS and Michaletz, ST and Pötsch, C and Seltzer, L and Telford, RJ and Yang, Y and Zhang, L and Vandvik, V}, title = {Intraspecific Trait Variation and Phenotypic Plasticity Mediate Alpine Plant Species Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1548}, pmid = {30483276}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {In a rapidly changing climate, alpine plants may persist by adapting to new conditions. However, the rate at which the climate is changing might exceed the rate of adaptation through evolutionary processes in long-lived plants. Persistence may depend on phenotypic plasticity in morphology and physiology. Here we investigated patterns of leaf trait variation including leaf area, leaf thickness, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nutrients (C, N, P) and isotopes (δ[13]C and δ[15]N) across an elevation gradient on Gongga Mountain, Sichuan Province, China. We quantified inter- and intra-specific trait variation and the plasticity in leaf traits of selected species to experimental warming and cooling by using a reciprocal transplantation approach. We found substantial phenotypic plasticity in most functional traits where δ[15]N, leaf area, and leaf P showed greatest plasticity. These traits did not correspond with traits with the largest amount of intraspecific variation. Plasticity in leaf functional traits tended to enable plant populations to shift their trait values toward the mean values of a transplanted plants' destination community, but only if that population started with very different trait values. These results suggest that leaf trait plasticity is an important mechanism for enabling plants to persist within communities and to better tolerate changing environmental conditions under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30477122, year = {2018}, author = {Berry, P and Enright, PM and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Villalobos Prats, E and Campbell-Lendrum, D}, title = {Assessing Health Vulnerabilities and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Review of International Progress.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {30477122}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; Internationality ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasing risks to human health and to the health systems that seek to protect the safety and well-being of populations. Health authorities require information about current associations between health outcomes and weather or climate, vulnerable populations, projections of future risks and adaptation opportunities in order to reduce exposures, empower individuals to take needed protective actions and build climate-resilient health systems. An increasing number of health authorities from local to national levels seek this information by conducting climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments. While assessments can provide valuable information to plan for climate change impacts, the results of many studies are not helping to build the global evidence-base of knowledge in this area. They are also often not integrated into adaptation decision making, sometimes because the health sector is not involved in climate change policy making processes at the national level. Significant barriers related to data accessibility, a limited number of climate and health models, uncertainty in climate projections, and a lack of funding and expertise, particularly in developing countries, challenge health authority efforts to conduct rigorous assessments and apply the findings. This paper examines the evolution of climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments, including guidance developed for such projects, the number of assessments that have been conducted globally and implementation of the findings to support health adaptation action. Greater capacity building that facilitates assessments from local to national scales will support collaborative efforts to protect health from current climate hazards and future climate change. Health sector officials will benefit from additional resources and partnership opportunities to ensure that evidence about climate change impacts on health is effectively translated into needed actions to build health resilience.}, }
@article {pmid30476829, year = {2019}, author = {Koutroulis, AG}, title = {Dryland changes under different levels of global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {655}, number = {}, pages = {482-511}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.215}, pmid = {30476829}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Drylands are vital ecosystems which cover almost 47% of the Earth's surface, hosting 39% of the global population. Dryland areas are highly sensitive to climatic changes and substantial impacts are foreseen under a warming climate. Many studies have examined the evolution of drylands in the future highlighting the need for improved capability of climate models to simulate aridity. The present study takes advantage of new higher resolution climate projections by the HadGEM3A Atmosphere Global Climate Model using prescribed time varying SSTs and sea ice, provided by a range of CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5. The aim of the higher resolution models is to examine the benefit of the improved representation of atmospheric processes in the dryland research and to see where these results lie in the range of results from previous studies using the original CMIP5 ensemble. The transient response of aridity from the recent past until the end of the 21st century was examined as well as the expansion of global drylands under specific levels of global warming (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C). Dryland changes were further assessed at the watershed level for a number of major global river basins to discuss implications on hydrological changes and land degradation. The areal coverage of drylands could increase by an additional 7% of the global land surface by 2100 under high end climate change. At a 4 °C warmer world above pre-industrial, 11.2% of global land area is projected to shift towards drier types and 4.24% to wetter. At the same level of warming the number of humans projected to live in drylands varies between 3.3 and 5.2 billion, depending on the socioeconomic developments. By keeping global warming levels to 1.5 °C, up to 1.9 billion people could avoid living in drylands compared to a 4 °C warmer world of low environmental concern.}, }
@article {pmid30473865, year = {2018}, author = {Dietl, GP and Nagel-Myers, J and Aronson, RB}, title = {Indirect effects of climate change altered the cannibalistic behaviour of shell-drilling gastropods in Antarctica during the Eocene.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {5}, number = {10}, pages = {181446}, pmid = {30473865}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {The fossil record from Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula, provides a record of biotic response to the onset of global climatic cooling during the Eocene. Using drilling traces-small, round holes preserved on prey shells-we examined the effect of a cooling pulse 41 Ma on the cannibalistic behaviour of predatory naticid gastropods. We predicted that cannibalistic attacks would decline in response to the cooling climate, reflecting reduced activity levels, energy requirements and constraints on the chemically aided drilling process of the naticids. Surprisingly, however, cannibalism frequencies did not change. This counterintuitive result is best explained by a sharp reduction in durophagous (shell-crushing) predation in shallow-benthic communities in Antarctica that also occurred as the climate cooled. Reduced durophagous predation may have created a less-risky environment for foraging naticids, stimulating cannibalistic behaviour. The change in the top-down control exerted by shell-crushing predators on naticids may have counteracted the direct, negative effects of declining temperatures on the predatory performance of naticids. Our results suggest that the long-term consequences of climate change cannot be predicted solely from its direct effects on predation, because the temperature can have large indirect effects on consumer-resource interactions, especially where risk-effects dominate.}, }
@article {pmid30473757, year = {2018}, author = {Terblanche-Greeff, AC and Dokken, JV and van Niekerk, D and Loubser, RA}, title = {Cultural beliefs of time orientation and social self-construal: Influences on climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {510}, pmid = {30473757}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest challenges humankind faces and adaptive behaviour is an imperative response to such change. Culture and the resulting worldview are determinants of behaviour and eminent cultural beliefs are that of time orientation (TO) and social self-construal (SSC). To date, no research focuses on these beliefs from an indigenous South African perspective or the manner in which it may subsequently affect a community's adaptation towards climate change. Q-methodology was used to study perspectives and beliefs in three peri-urban communities in South Africa and to investigate the interrelation between themes such as TO, SSC, climate change awareness and climate change causality. It became apparent that the communities are aware of climate change, yet little to no efforts are currently being made to adapt to climatic change. This absence of motivation to adapt may be attributed to limited risk perception and cultural beliefs of TO and SSC. This study aims to contribute to the understanding of cultural beliefs and its impact on climate change adaptation behaviour in the South African context. It is concluded that TO and SSC from an indigenous South African perspective influence community adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30473756, year = {2018}, author = {Schuman, S and Dokken, JV and van Niekerk, D and Loubser, RA}, title = {Religious beliefs and climate change adaptation: A study of three rural South African communities.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {509}, pmid = {30473756}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This article argues that religious beliefs significantly influence a community's understanding and experience of climate change adaptation, indicating the need for an inclusion of such information in climate change adaptation education. Data were collected using the Q-method, whereby recurring statements were identified from semi-structured interviews with participants from three rural communities in the North-West province of South Africa: Ikageng, Ventersdorp and Jouberton. The research found that community members who regard themselves as religious (overall of the Christian faith) fall under two groups: the religious determinists or fatalists, who see climate as a natural process that is governed by God, and religious participants who deny this 'naturalness' and acknowledge humans' impact on the climate.}, }
@article {pmid30473737, year = {2018}, author = {Dumic, I and Severnini, E}, title = {"Ticking Bomb": The Impact of Climate Change on the Incidence of Lyme Disease.}, journal = {The Canadian journal of infectious diseases &amp; medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale}, volume = {2018}, number = {}, pages = {5719081}, pmid = {30473737}, issn = {1712-9532}, abstract = {Lyme disease (LD) is the most common tick-borne disease in North America. It is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi and transmitted to humans by blacklegged ticks, Ixodes scapularis. The life cycle of the LD vector, I. scapularis, usually takes two to three years to complete and goes through three stages, all of which are dependent on environmental factors. Increases in daily average temperatures, a manifestation of climate change, might have contributed to an increase in tick abundance via higher rates of tick survival. Additionally, these environmental changes might have contributed to better host availability, which is necessary for tick feeding and life cycle completion. In fact, it has been shown that both tick activity and survival depend on temperature and humidity. In this study, we have examined the relationship between those climatic variables and the reported incidence of LD in 15 states that contribute to more than 95% of reported cases within the Unites States. Using fixed effects analysis for a panel of 468 U.S. counties from those high-incidence states with annual data available for the period 2000-2016, we have found sizable impacts of temperature on the incidence of LD. Those impacts can be described approximately by an inverted U-shaped relationship, consistent with patterns of tick survival and host-seeking behavior. Assuming a 2°C increase in annual average temperature-in line with mid-century (2036-2065) projections from the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA4)-we have predicted that the number of LD cases in the United States will increase by over 20 percent in the coming decades. These findings may help improving preparedness and response by clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers, as well as raising public awareness of the importance of being cautious when engaging in outdoor activities.}, }
@article {pmid30473301, year = {2019}, author = {Lu, X and Lu, Y and Chen, D and Su, C and Song, S and Wang, T and Tian, H and Liang, R and Zhang, M and Khan, K}, title = {Climate change induced eutrophication of cold-water lake in an ecologically fragile nature reserve.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {75}, number = {}, pages = {359-369}, doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2018.05.018}, pmid = {30473301}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Eutrophication ; *Lakes ; }, abstract = {Aquatic ecosystem sustainability around the globe is facing crucial challenges because of increasing anthropogenic and natural disturbances. In this study, the Tianchi Lake, a typical cold-water lake and a UNESCO/MAB (Man and Biosphere) nature reserve located in high latitude and elevation with the relatively low intensity of human activity was chosen as a system to examine the linkages between climate change and eutrophication. As a part of the UNESCO Bogda Man and Biosphere Reserve, Tianchi Lake has been well preserved for prevention from human intervention, but why has it been infected with eutrophication recent years? Our results show that climate change played a significant role in the eutrophication in the Tianchi Lake. Increased temperature, changed precipitation pattern and wind-induced hydrodynamic fluctuations in the summer season were suggested to make a major contribution to the accelerated eutrophication. The results also showed that the local temperature and precipitation changes were closely linked to the large-scale atmospheric circulation, which opens the door for the method to be applied in other regions without local climatic information. This study suggests that there is an urgent need to take into consideration of climate change adaptation into the conservation and management of cold-water lakes globally.}, }
@article {pmid30472516, year = {2019}, author = {Austin, SE and Ford, JD and Berrang-Ford, L and Biesbroek, R and Ross, NA}, title = {Enabling local public health adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {220}, number = {}, pages = {236-244}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2018.11.002}, pmid = {30472516}, issn = {1873-5347}, support = {//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Cooperative Behavior ; Germany ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; *Leadership ; *Local Government ; Organizational Case Studies ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Local public health authorities often lack the capacity to adapt to climate change, despite being on the 'front lines' of climate impacts. Upper-level governments are well positioned to create an enabling environment for adaptation and build local public health authorities' capacity, yet adaptation literature has not specified how upper-level governments can build local-level adaptive capacity. In this paper we examine how federal and regional governments can contribute to enabling and supporting public health adaptation to climate change at the local level in federal systems. We outline the local level's self-assessed adaptive capacity for public health adaptation in Canadian and German comparative case studies, in terms of funding, knowledge and skills, organizations, and prioritization, drawing upon 30 semi-structured interviews. Based on interviewees' recommendations and complemented by scientific literature, we develop a set of practical measures that could enable or support local-level public health adaptation. We find that adaptive capacity varies widely between local public health authorities, but most report having insufficient funding and staff for adaptation activities. We propose 10 specific measures upper-level governments can take to build local public health authorities' capacity for adaptation, under the interrelated target areas of: building financial capital; developing and disseminating usable knowledge; collaborating and coordinating for shared knowledge; and claiming leadership. Federal and regional governments have an important role to play in enabling local-level public health adaptation, and have many instruments available to them to fulfill that role. Selecting and implementing measures to enable local public health authorities' adaptive capacity will require tailoring to, and consideration, of the local context and needs.}, }
@article {pmid30469066, year = {2019}, author = {Thomas, P and Büntgen, U}, title = {A risk assessment of Europe's black truffle sector under predicted climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {655}, number = {}, pages = {27-34}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.252}, pmid = {30469066}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agaricales/*growth &amp; development ; *Agriculture ; Ascomycota/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; France ; Italy ; Risk Assessment ; Spain ; }, abstract = {The black truffle (Tuber melanosporum) is a highly revered culinary icon species that grows symbiotically with its host trees across several parts of southern Europe. Where harvested under natural or cultivated conditions, truffles can have a significant socioeconomic impact and may even form a key component of cultural identity. Although some aspects of truffle biology and ecology have been elucidated recently, the role of abiotic, environmental and climatic factors in the production and maturation of their fruitbodies is still largely unknown. Based on 36-year-long, continuous records of Mediterranean truffle yield, we demonstrate that decreased summer precipitation together with increased summer temperatures significantly reduce the fungus' subsequent winter harvest. Using state-of-the-art climate model projections, we predict that a significant decline of 78-100% in southern European truffle production is likely to occur between 2071 and 2100. The additional threats of forecasted heatwaves, forest fires, pest and disease outbreaks are discussed along with socioeconomic and ecological consequences of a warmer and dryer future climate. Our results emphasize the need for unravelling the direct and indirect effects of climate change on Europe's truffle sector and underline the importance of conservation initiatives at local to international scales.}, }
@article {pmid30466147, year = {2019}, author = {Zhou, G and Luo, Q and Chen, Y and He, M and Zhou, L and Frank, D and He, Y and Fu, Y and Zhang, B and Zhou, X}, title = {Effects of livestock grazing on grassland carbon storage and release override impacts associated with global climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {1119-1132}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14533}, pmid = {30466147}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon/analysis/metabolism ; *Carbon Cycle ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; Herbivory/*physiology ; Livestock/*physiology ; Plants/metabolism ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Predicting future carbon (C) dynamics in grassland ecosystems requires knowledge of how grazing and global climate change (e.g., warming, elevated CO2 , increased precipitation, drought, and N fertilization) interact to influence C storage and release. Here, we synthesized data from 223 grassland studies to quantify the individual and interactive effects of herbivores and climate change on ecosystem C pools and soil respiration (Rs). Our results showed that grazing overrode global climate change factors in regulating grassland C storage and release (i.e., Rs). Specifically, grazing significantly decreased aboveground plant C pool (APCP), belowground plant C pool (BPCP), soil C pool (SCP), and Rs by 19.1%, 6.4%, 3.1%, and 4.6%, respectively, while overall effects of all global climate change factors increased APCP, BPCP, and Rs by 6.5%, 15.3%, and 3.4% but had no significant effect on SCP. However, the combined effects of grazing with global climate change factors also significantly decreased APCP, SCP, and Rs by 4.0%, 4.7%, and 2.7%, respectively but had no effect on BPCP. Most of the interactions between grazing and global climate change factors on APCP, BPCP, SCP, and Rs were additive instead of synergistic or antagonistic. Our findings highlight the dominant effects of grazing on C storage and Rs when compared with the suite of global climate change factors. Therefore, incorporating the dominant effect of herbivore grazing into Earth System Models is necessary to accurately predict climate-grassland feedbacks in the Anthropocene.}, }
@article {pmid30464832, year = {2018}, author = {Elayadeth-Meethal, M and Thazhathu Veettil, A and Maloney, SK and Hawkins, N and Misselbrook, TH and Sejian, V and Rivero, MJ and Lee, MRF}, title = {Size does matter: Parallel evolution of adaptive thermal tolerance and body size facilitates adaptation to climate change in domestic cattle.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {21}, pages = {10608-10620}, pmid = {30464832}, issn = {2045-7758}, support = {BBS/E/C/000I0320/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BBS/E/C/000J0100/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The adaptive potential of livestock under a warming climate is increasingly relevant in relation to the growing pressure of global food security. Studies on heat tolerance demonstrate the interplay of adaptation and acclimatization in functional traits, for example, a reduction in body size and enhanced tolerance in response to a warming climate. However, current lack of understanding of functional traits and phylogenetic history among phenotypically distinct populations constrains predictions of climate change impact. Here, we demonstrate evidence of parallel evolution in adaptive tolerance to heat stress in dwarf cattle breeds (DCB, Bos taurus indicus) and compare their thermoregulatory responses with those in standard size cattle breeds (SCB, crossbred, Bos taurus indicus × Bos taurus taurus). We measured vital physiological, hematological, biochemical, and gene expression changes in DCB and SCB and compared the molecular phylogeny using mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) analysis. Our results show that SCB can acclimatize in the short term to higher temperatures but reach their tolerance limit under prevailing tropical conditions, while DCB is adapted to the warmer climate. Increased hemoglobin concentration, reduced cellular size, and smaller body size enhance thermal tolerance. Mitogenome analysis revealed that different lineages of DCB have evolved reduced size independently, as a parallel adaptation to heat stress. The results illustrate mechanistic ways of dwarfing, body size-dependent tolerance, and differential fitness in a large mammal species under harsh field conditions, providing a background for comparing similar populations during global climate change. These demonstrate the value of studies combining functional, physiological, and evolutionary approaches to delineate adaptive potential and plasticity in domestic species. We thus highlight the value of locally adapted breeds as a reservoir of genetic variation contributing to the global domestic genetic resource pool that will become increasingly important for livestock production systems under a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid30464240, year = {2018}, author = {Wood, JR and Díaz, FP and Latorre, C and Wilmshurst, JM and Burge, OR and Gutiérrez, RA}, title = {Plant pathogen responses to Late Pleistocene and Holocene climate change in the central Atacama Desert, Chile.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {17208}, pmid = {30464240}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {Core funding for Crown Research Institutes//Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE)/International ; Core funding to Crown Research Institutes//Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE)/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Chile ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Ancient/*isolation &amp; purification ; DNA, Fungal/*isolation &amp; purification ; Desert Climate ; Feces/chemistry ; *Fossils ; Fungi/*classification/*genetics ; Metagenomics/methods ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; RNA, Ribosomal, 18S/genetics ; Rodentia ; }, abstract = {Future climate change has the potential to alter the distribution and prevalence of plant pathogens, which may have significant implications for both agricultural crops and natural plant communities. However, there are few long-term datasets against which modelled predictions of pathogen responses to climate change can be tested. Here, we use 18S metabarcoding of 28 rodent middens (solidified deposits of rodent coprolites and nesting material) from the Central Atacama, spanning the last ca. 49 ka, to provide the first long-term late Quaternary record of change in plant pathogen communities in response to changing climate. Plant pathogen richness was significantly greater in middens deposited during the Central Andean Pluvial Event (CAPE); a period of increased precipitation between 17.5-8.5 ka. Moreover, the occurrence frequency of Pucciniaceae (rust fungi) was significantly greater during the CAPE, and the highest relative abundances for five additional potentially pathogenic taxa also occurred during this period. The results demonstrate the promising potential for ancient DNA analysis of late Quaternary samples to reveal insights into how plant pathogens responded to past climatic and environmental change, which could help predict how pathogens may responded to future change.}, }
@article {pmid30463471, year = {2019}, author = {Symonds, ME and Farhat, G and Aldiss, P and Pope, M and Budge, H}, title = {Brown adipose tissue and glucose homeostasis - the link between climate change and the global rise in obesity and diabetes.}, journal = {Adipocyte}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {46-50}, pmid = {30463471}, issn = {2162-397X}, mesh = {Adipose Tissue, Beige/metabolism ; Adipose Tissue, Brown/*metabolism ; Adult ; Carbohydrate Metabolism ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Diabetes Mellitus/etiology ; Energy Metabolism ; Female ; Glucose/*metabolism ; Homeostasis/physiology ; Humans ; Male ; Mitochondria/metabolism ; Mitochondrial Proteins/metabolism ; Obesity/etiology ; Thermogenesis/physiology ; Uncoupling Protein 1/metabolism ; }, abstract = {There is increasing evidence that the global rise in temperature is contributing to the onset of diabetes, which could be mediated by a concomitant reduction in brown fat activity. Brown (and beige) fat are characterised as possessing a unique mitochondrial protein uncoupling protein (UCP)1 that when activated can rapidly generate large amounts of heat. Primary environmental stimuli of UCP1 include cold-exposure and diet, leading to increased activity of the sympathetic nervous system and large amounts of lipid and glucose being oxidised by brown fat. The exact contribution remains controversial, although recent studies indicate that the amount of brown and beige fat in adult humans has been greatly underestimated. We therefore review the potential mechanisms by which glucose could be utilised within brown and beige fat in adult humans and the extent to which these are sensitive to temperature and diet. This includes the potential contribution from the peridroplet and cytoplasmic mitochondrial sub-fractions recently identified in brown fat, and whether a proportion of glucose oxidation could be UCP1-independent. It is thus predicted that as new methods are developed to assess glucose metabolism by brown fat, a more accurate determination of the thermogenic and non-thermogenic functions could be feasible in humans.}, }
@article {pmid30463139, year = {2019}, author = {Li, Y and Tao, H and Su, B and Kundzewicz, ZW and Jiang, T}, title = {Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on winter snow depth in Central Asia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2866-2873}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.126}, pmid = {30463139}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Snow depth plays an essential role in the water and energy balance of the land surface. It is of special importance in arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. Owing to the limited availability of field observations, the spatial and temporal variations of snow depth are still poorly known. Using the Japanese 55-year (JRA-55) and the ERA-Interim reanalysis snow depth products, we considered four global climate models (GCMs) applied in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), examining how they represent snow depth in Central Asia during the period 1986-2005 in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics. We also investigated changes of winter (January-March) snow depth in Central Asia, at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Finally, the joint probabilistic behavior of winter temperature and precipitation at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming are investigated using the kernel density estimator (KDE). The result shows that the snow depth climatology of Central Asia is generally well simulated in both spatial pattern and temporal (inter-annual and inter-seasonal) pattern. All models approximately simulate the winter maximum and the summer minimum values of snow depth but tend to overestimate the amplitude during October-December. Only the trend in HadGEM2-ES matches fairly well to the JRA-55 reanalysis snow depth. When comparing the projections of spatial distribution of winter snow depth, distinctive spatial pattern is noted at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, when the snow depth is shown to increase in northeastern and to decrease in midwestern regions of Central Asia. According to the joint probability distributions of precipitation and temperature, Central Asia will tend to experience a warmer and wetter winter at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, which can be associated with an increase in snow depth in the northeastern regions.}, }
@article {pmid30463131, year = {2019}, author = {Liu, Z and Yang, Y and He, C and Tu, M}, title = {Climate change will constrain the rapid urban expansion in drylands: A scenario analysis with the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2772-2786}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.177}, pmid = {30463131}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Evaluation of climate change impacts (CCIs) on urban expansion is important to improving the urban sustainability in drylands. Taking the agro-pastoral transitional zone of northern China (APTZNC) as an example, this study evaluates potential CCIs on urban expansion in 2015-2050. First, we set up six climate change scenarios (CCSs) based on the simulated results of global climate model and regional climate model under different representative concentration pathways. Then, we simulate regional urban expansion under the different CCSs using the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. We find that climate change will be a key factor that affects urban expansion in this region. The urban land affected by climate change in the entire region will increase from 20.24-26.48 km[2] (2020) to 119.71-339.26 km[2] (2050), an increase of 4.91-11.81 times. The CCIs on urban expansion will be the most significant in the mid-western region. In 2050, the urban land potentially affected by climate change will be 98.70-213.88 km[2], which is 42.26%-134.12% of the urban land in the entire region. To improve urban sustainability in the APTZNC, effective measures must be adopted to mitigate and adapt to CCIs on urban expansion.}, }
@article {pmid30461534, year = {2019}, author = {Reid, CE and Maestas, MM}, title = {Wildfire smoke exposure under climate change: impact on respiratory health of affected communities.}, journal = {Current opinion in pulmonary medicine}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {179-187}, pmid = {30461534}, issn = {1531-6971}, support = {P2C HD066613/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; Public Health/methods/trends ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Smoke ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this review, we describe the current status of the literature regarding respiratory health related to wildfire smoke exposure, anticipated future impacts under a changing climate, and strategies to reduce respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Recent findings confirm associations between wildfire smoke exposure and respiratory health outcomes, with the clearest evidence for exacerbations of asthma. Although previous evidence showed a clear association between wildfire smoke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, findings from recent studies are more mixed. Current evidence in support of an association between respiratory infections and wildfire smoke exposure is also mixed. Only one study has investigated long-term respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke, and few studies have estimated future health impacts of wildfires under likely climate change scenarios.<br><br>SUMMARY: Wildfire activity has been increasing over the past several decades and is likely to continue to do so as climate change progresses, which, combined with a growing population, means that population exposure to and respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke is likely to grow in the future. More research is needed to understand which population subgroups are most vulnerable to wildfire smoke exposure and the long-term respiratory health impacts of these high pollution events.}, }
@article {pmid30460966, year = {2018}, author = {Dennis, S and Fisher, D}, title = {Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: The Next 50 Years.}, journal = {Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore}, volume = {47}, number = {10}, pages = {401-404}, pmid = {30460966}, issn = {2972-4066}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*organization &amp; administration ; Communicable Diseases/diagnosis/*epidemiology ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Female ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Male ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid30460817, year = {2018}, author = {Liu, C and Huo, HL and Tian, LM and Dong, XG and Qi, D and Zhang, Y and Xu, JY and Cao, YF}, title = {[Potential geographical distribution of Pyrus calleryana under different climate change scena-rios based on the MaxEnt model].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {11}, pages = {3696-3704}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201811.016}, pmid = {30460817}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Asia ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; North America ; Pyrus/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {To resovle the problems of in-situ conservation and resource utilization of Pyrus caller-yana, maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and geographic information system (GIS) were used to predict the global ecological suitable region of P. calleryana in different climate scenarios based on 236 distribution data and 19 ecological factors. The results showed that the ecological suitable regions of P. calleryana were mainly concentrated in North America, Asia and other regions, with a total area of 1.6×10[7] km[2]. In China, the regions with high ecological suitability were Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces. The main factors affecting the geographical distribution of P. calleryana were mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation, followed by the seasonality of temperature. The model simulations indicated that P. calleryana would have different suitable habitat areas and marginally suitable habitat areas in different climate scenarios. In terms of the spatial distribution of the potential habitat area, both the distributional range and the center of distribution of suitable and marginally suitable habitat area would shift from east to west. The suitable habitat area in North America and marginally suitable habitat areas in Europe would increase rapidly.}, }
@article {pmid30460799, year = {2018}, author = {Liu, M and Mao, ZJ and Li, Y and Xia, ZY}, title = {[Response of radial growth to climate change in Pinus koraiensis with different diameter classes].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {11}, pages = {3530-3540}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201811.010}, pmid = {30460799}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forests ; Pinus/*physiology ; Temperature ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Dendrochronological techniques were used to study the response of radial growth of Pinus koraiensis with different diameter classes to climate change throughout the natural range of broad-leaved Korean pine forests, including Baishilazi Nature Reserve (40.9° N), Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve (42.4° N), Liangshui Nature Reserve (47.2° N), and Shengshan Nature Reserve (49.4° N). We investigated the similarities and differences of growth responses of different diameter classes to climate factors and clarified the key climate factors affecting the growth of P. koraiensis at different latitude sites. We explored the dynamic changes of the radial growth of P. koraiensis from the latitudinal gradient over the past 40 years. The results showed many similarities in the response of two diameter classes to local climate factors. Small diameter (diameter at breast height of 10-20 cm) trees were more sensitive to the changes of average minimum temperature of the current growing season and the meteorological factors of the previous year, whereas large diameter (diameter at breast height >40 cm) trees were more sensitive to the changes of average maximum temperature and average relative humidity of the current growing season. The key meteorological factors that affecting radial growth of P. koraiensis differed along the latitude gradient. In Baishilazi Nature Reserve, the southernmost plot, the key climate factors were the average maximum temperature and the average maximum temperature in the current growing season. In Shengshan Nature Reserve, the northernmost sample plot, the key climate factors were low temperature factors, such as the minimum temperature in all seasons, the average maximum temperature in winter, the average temperature of all seasons except for the end of previous growing season and the current growing season. The Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in the current growth season and the end of the current growth season and the precipitation in the current growth season were the key climate factors in Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve. The average temperature of the current growing season was the key climate factor of Liangshui Nature Reserve. In recent four decades, with the rising of temperature, the radial growth of P. koraiensis of two diameter classes significantly decreased in the southernmost point, significantly increased in the northernmost point, and had no significant variation in middle latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid30460481, year = {2019}, author = {Ahmed, N and Thompson, S and Glaser, M}, title = {Global Aquaculture Productivity, Environmental Sustainability, and Climate Change Adaptability.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {159-172}, pmid = {30460481}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture ; *Climate Change ; Fisheries ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Seawater ; }, abstract = {To meet the demand for food from a growing global population, aquaculture production is under great pressure to increase as capture fisheries have stagnated. However, aquaculture has raised a range of environmental concerns, and further increases in aquaculture production will face widespread environmental challenges. The effects of climate change will pose a further threat to global aquaculture production. Aquaculture is often at risk from a combination of climatic variables, including cyclone, drought, flood, global warming, ocean acidification, rainfall variation, salinity, and sea level rise. For aquaculture growth to be sustainable its environmental impacts must reduce significantly. Adaptation to climate change is also needed to produce more fish without environmental impacts. Some adaptation strategies including integrated aquaculture, recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS), and the expansion of seafood farming could increase aquaculture productivity, environmental sustainability, and climate change adaptability.}, }
@article {pmid30460433, year = {2019}, author = {Campoy, JA and Darbyshire, R and Dirlewanger, E and Quero-García, J and Wenden, B}, title = {Yield potential definition of the chilling requirement reveals likely underestimation of the risk of climate change on winter chill accumulation.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {183-192}, pmid = {30460433}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {2014-1R201022971//Conseil R&#xe9;gional Aquitaine/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Flowers/physiology ; Prunus avium/*physiology ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Evaluation of chilling requirements of cultivars of temperate fruit trees provides key information to assess regional suitability, according to winter chill, for both industry expansion and ongoing profitability as climate change progresses. Traditional methods for calculating chilling requirements use climate-controlled chambers and define chilling requirements (CR) using a fixed bud burst percentage, usually close to 50% (CR-50%). However, this CR-50% definition may estimate chilling requirements that lead to flowering percentages that are lower than required for orchards to be commercially viable. We used sweet cherry to analyse the traditional method for calculating chilling requirements (CR-50%) and compared the results with a more restrictive method, where the chilling requirement was defined by a 90% bud break level (CRm-90%). For sweet cherry, this higher requirement of flowering success (90% as opposed to 50%) better represents grower production needs as a greater number of flowers leads to greater potential yield. To investigate the future risk of insufficient chill based on alternate calculations of the chilling requirement, climate projections of winter chill suitability across Europe were calculated using CR-50% and CRm-90%. Regional suitability across the landscape was highly dependent on the method used to define chilling requirements, and differences were found for both cold and mild winter areas. Our results suggest that bud break percentage levels used in the assessment of chilling requirements for sweet cherry influence production risks of current and future production areas. The use of traditional methods to determine chilling requirements can result in an underestimation of productivity chilling requirements for tree crops like sweet cherry which rely on a high conversion of flowers to mature fruit to obtain profitable yields. This underestimation may have negative consequences for the fruit industry as climate change advances with climate risk underestimated.}, }
@article {pmid30458350, year = {2019}, author = {Nunfam, VF and Van Etten, EJ and Oosthuizen, J and Adusei-Asante, K and Frimpong, K}, title = {Climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers: Perspectives of supervisors and other stakeholders in Ghana.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {169}, number = {}, pages = {147-155}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.11.004}, pmid = {30458350}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ghana/epidemiology ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology ; Heat-Shock Response ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mining ; Occupational Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Occupational Health ; }, abstract = {Increasing air temperatures as a result of climate change are worsening the impact of heat exposure on working populations, including mining workers, who are at risk of suffering heat-related illnesses, injury and death. However, inadequate awareness of climate change-related occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies have been shown to render occupational heat stress management ineffective. A concurrent mixed-methods approach was used to assess the perceptions of climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers among supervisory personnel and other stakeholders in Ghana. Questionnaires and interviews were used to elicit data from 19 respondents. Data were processed and interpreted using descriptive statistics, chi-square and Fisher's exact tests, and thematic analysis. Supervisors' climate change risks perception was adequate, and their concern about workplace heat exposure risks was moderate. Mining workers' occupational heat stress risks experiences were linked to heat-related illness and minor injuries. Mining workers' adaptation strategies included water intake, use of cooling mechanisms, work-break practices, and clothing use. The related differences in job experience in the distribution of climate change risk perception and occupational heat stress risk experiences, and the difference in educational attainment in the distribution of adaptation strategies of occupational heat stress were significant (p < 0.05). Hence, an effective workplace heat management policy requires adequate understanding of occupational heat stress risks and adaptation policies and continued education and training for mining workers.}, }
@article {pmid30456897, year = {2019}, author = {Cochand, F and Therrien, R and Lemieux, JM}, title = {Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Snow-Influenced Catchment.}, journal = {Ground water}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, pages = {3-20}, doi = {10.1111/gwat.12848}, pmid = {30456897}, issn = {1745-6584}, mesh = {Canada ; Climate Change ; *Groundwater ; Hydrology ; *Snow ; }, abstract = {The potential impact of climate change on water resources has been intensively studied for different regions and climates across the world. In regions where winter processes such as snowfall and melting play a significant role, anticipated changes in temperature might significantly affect hydrological systems. To address this impact, modifications have been made to the fully integrated surface-subsurface flow model HydroGeoSphere (HGS) to allow the simulation of snow accumulation and melting. The modified HGS model was used to assess the potential impact of climate change on surface and subsurface flow in the Saint-Charles River catchment, Quebec (Canada) for the period 2070 to 2100. The model was first developed and calibrated to reproduce observed streamflow and hydraulic heads for current climate conditions. The calibrated model was then used with three different climate scenarios to simulate surface flow and groundwater dynamics for the 2070 to 2100 period. Winter stream discharges are predicted to increase by about 80, 120, and 150% for the three scenarios due to warmer winters, leading to more liquid precipitation and more snowmelt. Conversely, the summer stream discharges are predicted to fall by about 10, 15, and 20% due to an increase in evapotranspiration. However, the annual mean stream discharge should remain stable (±0.1 m[3] /s). The predicted increase in hydraulic heads in winter may reach 15 m and the maximum decrease in summer may reach 3 m. Simulations show that winter processes play a key role in the seasonal modifications anticipated for surface and subsurface flow dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid30455442, year = {2018}, author = {Doughty, CE and Santos-Andrade, PE and Shenkin, A and Goldsmith, GR and Bentley, LP and Blonder, B and Díaz, S and Salinas, N and Enquist, BJ and Martin, RE and Asner, GP and Malhi, Y}, title = {Tropical forest leaves may darken in response to climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {12}, pages = {1918-1924}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0716-y}, pmid = {30455442}, issn = {2397-334X}, support = {NE/J023418/1//Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/International ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Hot Temperature ; Models, Theoretical ; Peru ; Plant Leaves/chemistry/*physiology ; Trees/chemistry/*physiology ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Tropical forest leaf albedo (reflectance) greatly impacts how much energy the planet absorbs; however; little is known about how it might be impacted by climate change. Here, we measure leaf traits and leaf albedo at ten 1-ha plots along a 3,200-m elevation gradient in Peru. Leaf mass per area (LMA) decreased with warmer temperatures along the elevation gradient; the distribution of LMA was positively skewed at all sites indicating a shift in LMA towards a warmer climate and future reduced tropical LMA. Reduced LMA was significantly (P < 0.0001) correlated with reduced leaf near-infrared (NIR) albedo; community-weighted mean NIR albedo significantly (P < 0.01) decreased as temperature increased. A potential future 2 °C increase in tropical temperatures could reduce lowland tropical leaf LMA by 6-7 g m[-2] (5-6%) and reduce leaf NIR albedo by 0.0015-0.002 units. Reduced NIR albedo means that leaves are darker and absorb more of the Sun's energy. Climate simulations indicate this increased absorbed energy will warm tropical forests more at high CO2 conditions with proportionately more energy going towards heating and less towards evapotranspiration and cloud formation.}, }
@article {pmid30455218, year = {2018}, author = {MacLean, HJ and Nielsen, ME and Kingsolver, JG and Buckley, LB}, title = {Using museum specimens to track morphological shifts through climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {374}, number = {1763}, pages = {}, pmid = {30455218}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Alberta ; Animals ; Butterflies/*anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Colorado ; Museums ; Northwestern United States ; *Specimen Handling ; }, abstract = {Museum specimens offer a largely untapped resource for detecting morphological shifts in response to climate change. However, morphological shifts can be obscured by shifts in phenology or distribution or sampling biases. Additionally, interpreting phenotypic shifts requires distinguishing whether they result from plastic or genetic changes. Previous studies using collections have documented consistent historical size changes, but the limited studies of other morphological traits have often failed to support, or even test, hypotheses. We explore the potential of collections by investigating shifts in the functionally significant coloration of a montane butterfly, Colias meadii, over the past 60 years within three North American geographical regions. We find declines in ventral wing melanism, which correspond to reduced absorption of solar radiation and thus reduced risk of overheating, in two regions. However, contrary to expected responses to climate warming, we find melanism increases in the most thoroughly sampled region. Relationships among temperature, phenology and morphology vary across years and complicate the distinction between plastic and genetic responses. Differences in these relationships may account for the differing morphological shifts among regions. Our findings highlight the promise of using museum specimens to test mechanistic hypotheses for shifts in functional traits, which is essential for deciphering interacting responses to climate change.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.}, }
@article {pmid30452890, year = {2019}, author = {Sergi, C and Serra, N and Colomba, C and Ayanlade, A and Di Carlo, P}, title = {Tuberculosis evolution and climate change: How much work is ahead?.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {190}, number = {}, pages = {157-158}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.11.016}, pmid = {30452890}, issn = {1873-6254}, }
@article {pmid30452778, year = {2019}, author = {Shortridge, J and Camp, JS}, title = {Addressing Climate Change as an Emerging Risk to Infrastructure Systems.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {39}, number = {5}, pages = {959-967}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13234}, pmid = {30452778}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {The consequences that climate change could have on infrastructure systems are potentially severe but highly uncertain. This should make risk analysis a natural framework for climate adaptation in infrastructure systems. However, many aspects of climate change, such as weak background knowledge and societal controversy, make it an emerging risk where traditional approaches for risk assessment and management cannot be confidently employed. A number of research developments aimed at addressing these issues have emerged in recent years, such as the development of probabilistic climate projections, climate services, and robust decision frameworks. However, additional research is needed to improve the suitability of these methods for infrastructure planning. In this perspective, we outline some of the challenges in addressing climate change risks to infrastructure and summarize new developments aimed at meeting these challenges. We end by highlighting needs for future research, many of which could be well-served by expertise within the risk analysis community.}, }
@article {pmid30451349, year = {2019}, author = {Stinziano, JR and Bauerle, WL and Way, DA}, title = {Modelled net carbon gain responses to climate change in boreal trees: Impacts of photosynthetic parameter selection and acclimation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {1445-1465}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14530}, pmid = {30451349}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {2009-51181-05768//U.S. Department of Agriculture/ ; //State of Colorado/ ; //Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/ ; //Canada Foundation for Innovation/ ; //Ministry of Research and Innovation/ ; }, abstract = {Boreal forests are crucial in regulating global vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks, but the impact of climate change on boreal tree carbon fluxes is still unclear. Given the sensitivity of global vegetation models to photosynthetic and respiration parameters, we determined how predictions of net carbon gain (C-gain) respond to variation in these parameters using a stand-level model (MAESTRA). We also modelled how thermal acclimation of photosynthetic and respiratory temperature sensitivity alters predicted net C-gain responses to climate change. We modelled net C-gain of seven common boreal tree species under eight climate scenarios across a latitudinal gradient to capture a range of seasonal temperature conditions. Physiological parameter values were taken from the literature together with different approaches for thermally acclimating photosynthesis and respiration. At high latitudes, net C-gain was stimulated up to 400% by elevated temperatures and CO2 in the autumn but suppressed at the lowest latitudes during midsummer under climate scenarios that included warming. Modelled net C-gain was more sensitive to photosynthetic capacity parameters (Vcmax , Jmax , Arrhenius temperature response parameters, and the ratio of Jmax to Vcmax) than stomatal conductance or respiration parameters. The effect of photosynthetic thermal acclimation depended on the temperatures where it was applied: acclimation reduced net C-gain by 10%-15% within the temperature range where the equations were derived but decreased net C-gain by 175% at temperatures outside this range. Thermal acclimation of respiration had small, but positive, impacts on net C-gain. We show that model simulations are highly sensitive to variation in photosynthetic parameters and highlight the need to better understand the mechanisms and drivers underlying this variability (e.g., whether variability is environmentally and/or biologically driven) for further model improvement.}, }
@article {pmid30450107, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, Y and Halbritter, AH and Klanderud, K and Telford, RJ and Wang, G and Vandvik, V}, title = {Transplants, Open Top Chambers (OTCs) and Gradient Studies Ask Different Questions in Climate Change Effects Studies.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1574}, pmid = {30450107}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Long-term monitoring, space-for-time substitutions along gradients, and in situ temperature manipulations are common approaches to understand effects of climate change on alpine and arctic plant communities. Although general patterns emerge from studies using different approaches, there are also some inconsistencies. To provide better estimates of plant community responses to future warming across a range of environments, there have been repeated calls for integrating different approaches within single studies. Thus, to examine how different methods in climate change effect studies may ask different questions, we combined three climate warming approaches in a single study in the Hengduan Mountains of southwestern China. We monitored plant communities along an elevation gradient using the space-for-time approach, and conducted warming experiments using open top chambers (OTCs) and plant community transplantation toward warmer climates along the same gradient. Plant species richness and abundances were monitored over 5 years addressing two questions: (1) how do plant communities respond to the different climate warming approaches? (2) how can the combined approaches improve predictions of plant community responses to climate change? The general trend across all three approaches was decreased species richness with climate warming at low elevations. This suggests increased competition from immigrating lowland species, and/or from the species already growing inside the plots, as indicated by increased biomass, vegetation height or proportion of graminoids. At the coldest sites, species richness decreased in OTCs and along the gradient, but increased in the transplants, suggesting that plant communities in colder climates are more open to invasion from lowland species, with slow species loss. This was only detected in the transplants, showing that different approaches, may yield different results. Whereas OTCs may constrain immigration of new species, transplanted communities are rapidly exposed to new neighbors that can easily colonize the small plots. Thus, different approaches ask slightly different questions, in particular regarding indirect climate change effects, such as biotic interactions. To better understand both direct and indirect effects of climate change on plant communities, we need to combine approaches in future studies, and if novel interactions are of particular interest, transplants may be a better approach than OTCs.}, }
@article {pmid30448995, year = {2019}, author = {van Kerkhoff, L and Munera, C and Dudley, N and Guevara, O and Wyborn, C and Figueroa, C and Dunlop, M and Hoyos, MA and Castiblanco, J and Becerra, L}, title = {Towards future-oriented conservation: Managing protected areas in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {48}, number = {7}, pages = {699-713}, pmid = {30448995}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {P10002150//Luc Hoffmann Institute/ ; PO#2174//Luc Hoffmann Institute/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Colombia ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Decision Making ; Ecology ; }, abstract = {Management of protected areas must adapt to climate impacts, and prepare for ongoing ecological transformation. Future-Proofing Conservation is a dialogue-based, multi-stakeholder learning process that supports conservation managers to consider the implications of climate change for governance and management. It takes participants through a series of conceptual transitions to identify new management options that are robust to a range of possible biophysical futures, and steps that they can take now to prepare for ecological transformation. We outline the Future-Proofing Conservation process, and demonstrate its application in a pilot programme in Colombia. This process can be applied and adapted to a wide range of climate adaptation contexts, to support practitioners in developing positive ways forward for management and decision-making. By acknowledging scientific uncertainty, considering social values, and rethinking the rules that shape conservation governance, participants can identify new strategies towards "future-oriented conservation" over the long term.}, }
@article {pmid30448655, year = {2019}, author = {Warnatzsch, EA and Reay, DS}, title = {Temperature and precipitation change in Malawi: Evaluation of CORDEX-Africa climate simulations for climate change impact assessments and adaptation planning.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {654}, number = {}, pages = {378-392}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.098}, pmid = {30448655}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Malawi is highlighted as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the effects of climate change. The large uncertainty around future climate change in the region remains a barrier to adaptation planning. Despite this high potential vulnerability, relatively little research has gone into determining how well available models represent this country's climate. This work therefore evaluates the ability of existing General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to hindcast climatic variables in Malawi at a resolution appropriate for climate change impact assessment and adaptation planning. We focus on monthly precipitation rate, and mean, maximum and minimum surface air temperature. This assessment compares available observed datasets against the outputs of six ERA-interim driven RCMs and 21 GCM-driven RCMs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative, and the 11 GCMs which form their boundary conditions. It was found that the performance of the RCMs is highly influenced by their boundary conditions. None of the individual or ensemble RCMs or GCMs assessed in this paper correlate well with the observed datasets for any of the assessed climatic variables. While, they do simulate the trending change in temperature variables well, the simulated outputs for precipitation are highly divergent. Based on these findings we suggest that either the ensemble RCMs or ensemble GCMs would be suitable for understanding projected temperature trends, with the RCMs providing better spatial resolution. However, none of the assessed models provide certainty over future precipitation trends in Malawi. As such we suggest that impact assessments and adaptation plans in Malawi will need to be designed and tested against a range of future precipitation scenarios. To improve modelling for Malawi it is recommended that regional climate models be improved for higher spatial resolution and inclusion of the impacts from large water bodies, including Lake Malawi.}, }
@article {pmid30447580, year = {2019}, author = {Hălbac-Cotoară-Zamfir, R and Keesstra, S and Kalantari, Z}, title = {The impact of political, socio-economic and cultural factors on implementing environment friendly techniques for sustainable land management and climate change mitigation in Romania.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {654}, number = {}, pages = {418-429}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.160}, pmid = {30447580}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Throughout the history of Romania, political decisions, socio-economic measures, and cultural (traditional) characters have affected the implementation of environment friendly techniques (EFTs) policies. In the context of this paper, EFTs can be defined as solutions for the use of land resources aiming the increasing of goods for meeting the changing human needs and with neutral or positive environmental impact. Changes in the political regime have always had a visible impact on the EFTs issue in Romania. EFTs has gone through several major phases. The political impact on EFTs implementation mainly affected sustainable land management (SLM) and to a small extent, at the end of the communist era and partly during the capitalist period, climate change mitigation. Throughout history, the political factor has dominated and influenced the capacity of the EFTs implementation process in responding to socio-economic stimuli. In addition, quality of life, rural-urban and urban-rural migrations, poverty, education level, and climate change adaptation have had impacts on the status of EFTs according to governance and political reflections. The agrarian reforms from the last two centuries, based on socio-economic demands, have strongly influenced the capacity to implement EFTs both positively and negatively. However, the cultural factor was least affected by political and socio-economic changes as a stability factor in ensuring continued implementation of the EFTs. Currently, there is a strong need to reconsider EFTs as sustainability tools for Romanian agriculture that can cope with climate change and sustainable land management (SLM) demands. This paper presents a brief history of EFTs in Romania and their benefits in achieving SLM equilibrium, describing the impacts of political decisions, socio-economic measures, and cultural features on implementing ETFs policies.}, }
@article {pmid30446838, year = {2018}, author = {Sarun, S and Ghermandi, A and Sheela, AM and Justus, J and Vineetha, P}, title = {Climate change vulnerability in a tropical region based on environmental and socio-economic factors.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {190}, number = {12}, pages = {727}, pmid = {30446838}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Humans ; India ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The understanding of the regional and local dimensions of vulnerability due to climate change is essential to develop appropriate and targeted adaptation efforts. We assessed the local dimensions of vulnerability in the tropical state of Kerala, India, using a purposely developed vulnerability index, which accounts for both environmental and socio-economic factors. The large extents of coastal wetlands and lagoons and high concentration of mangrove forests make the state environmentally vulnerable. Low human development index, large population of socially deprived groups, which are dependent on the primary sector, and high population density make the state vulnerable from a socio-economic point of view. The present study investigates climate change vulnerability at the district level in the State of Kerala relying on a purposely developed composite vulnerability index that encompasses both socio-economic and environmental factors. The Kerala coast contains the socio-economically and ecologically most vulnerable regions, as demonstrated by a composite vulnerability index.}, }
@article {pmid30445333, year = {2019}, author = {Eekhout, J and de Vente, J}, title = {Assessing the effectiveness of Sustainable Land Management for large-scale climate change adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {654}, number = {}, pages = {85-93}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.350}, pmid = {30445333}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change will strongly affect essential ecosystem services, like the provision of freshwater, food production, soil erosion and flood control. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) practices are increasingly promoted to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation, but there is lack of evidence at scales most relevant for policymaking. We evaluated the effectiveness of SLM in a large Mediterranean catchment where climate change is projected to significantly reduce water security. We show that the on-site and off-site impacts of climate change are almost entirely reversed by the large-scale implementation of SLM under moderate climate change conditions, characterized by limited reductions in annual precipitation but significant increased precipitation intensity. Under more extreme reductions of annual precipitation, SLM implementation reduces the impacts on water security, but cannot prevent significant increased plant water stress and reduced water availability. Under these conditions, additional adaptation measures are required considering their interactions and trade-offs regarding water security.}, }
@article {pmid30444929, year = {2018}, author = {He, W and Yang, JY and Qian, B and Drury, CF and Hoogenboom, G and He, P and Lapen, D and Zhou, W}, title = {Climate change impacts on crop yield, soil water balance and nitrate leaching in the semiarid and humid regions of Canada.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e0207370}, pmid = {30444929}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Crop Production ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Models, Biological ; *Soil ; *Water ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on agricultural systems is a major concern as it can have a significant effect on the world food supply. The objective of this study was to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production and nitrate leaching in two distinct climatic zones in Canada. Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was selected for the semiarid regions of Western Canada (Swift Current, SK) and maize (Zea mays L.) was chosen for the more humid regions of central Canada (Woodslee, ON). Climate scenarios were based upon simulations from a Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and crop simulations were conducted using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Compared to the baseline climate scenario, wheat yields increased by 8, 8, 11, 15%, whereas maize yields decreased by 15, 25, 22, 41% under RCP4.5 2050s (2041-2070), RCP4.5 2080s (2071-2100), RCP8.5 2050s and RCP8.5 2080s scenarios, respectively. Annual nitrate leaching increased by 19, 57, 73, 129% at Swift Current and by 84, 117, 208, 317% at Woodslee under the four scenarios, respectively. Adaptation measures suggested that fertilizer N rate for spring wheat should be increased to 80-100 kg N ha-1 to obtain optimal yields although this will result in an additional risk of 5-8 kg N ha-1 nitrate leaching at Swift Current. The fertilizer N rate of 150 kg N ha-1 was found to be suitable for high maize yields at Woodslee. New wheat and maize cultivars with long growing seasons would enable crop growth to match the phenological stage and hence maintain high crop yields to adapt to increased temperatures in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30444658, year = {2018}, author = {Wadgymar, SM and Mactavish, RM and Anderson, JT}, title = {Transgenerational and Within-Generation Plasticity in Response to Climate Change: Insights from a Manipulative Field Experiment across an Elevational Gradient.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {192}, number = {6}, pages = {698-714}, doi = {10.1086/700097}, pmid = {30444658}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Altitude ; Brassicaceae/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Phenotype ; Seeds ; Snow ; }, abstract = {Parental environmental effects-or transgenerational plasticity-can influence an individual's phenotype or fitness yet remain underexplored in the context of global change. Using the perennial self-pollinating plant Boechera stricta, we explored the effects of climate change on transgenerational and within-generation plasticity in dormancy, germination, growth, and survival. We first conducted a snow removal experiment in the field, in which we transplanted 16 families of known origin into three common gardens at different elevations and exposed half of the siblings to contemporary snow dynamics and half to early snow removal. We planted the offspring of these individuals in a factorial manipulation of temperature and water level in the growth chamber and reciprocally transplanted them across all parental environments in the field. The growth chamber experiment revealed that the effects of transgenerational plasticity persist in traits expressed after establishment, even when accounting for parental effects on seed mass. The field experiment showed that transgenerational and within-generation plasticity can interact and that plasticity varies clinally in populations distributed across elevations. These findings demonstrate that transgenerational plasticity can influence fitness-related traits and should be incorporated in studies of biological responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30443732, year = {2019}, author = {Douglass-Gallagher, E and Stuart, D}, title = {Crop Growers' Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: A Situated Study of Agriculture in Arizona's Verde Valley.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {1}, pages = {94-109}, pmid = {30443732}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Arizona ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Environment ; }, abstract = {Climate change will pose unprecedented challenges for agricultural producers globally, requiring the ability to adapt to new and unpredictable conditions. This study explores the adaptive capacity of crop growers in the Verde Valley, Arizona (US). Rather than examining pre-determined indicators of adaptive capacity, this study adopts a situated framework that examines material conditions, perceptions, and the larger social context. Interviewers used past experiences and future scenarios to allow factors that enhance or constrain adaptive capacity to emerge from the interviews. Findings reveal adaptation is site specific but general measures can be taken to enhance adaptive capacity. Encouraging diversity in crops and water sources, the use of drought and heat tolerant crops, and the use of water conservation practices will likely increase growers' adaptive capacity. In contrast, lack of support from organizations and government programs, lack of diverse crops and sources of water, lack of awareness about climate change, and growers' confidence in their ability to always adapt impairs adaptive capacity. Verde Valley growers will need increased support from local and national organizations to adapt to projected changes. The situated framework applied in this study reveals important insights and could be used to explore adaptive capacity in other agricultural regions.}, }
@article {pmid30442795, year = {2018}, author = {Klein, T and Hartmann, H}, title = {Climate change drives tree mortality.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6416}, pages = {758}, doi = {10.1126/science.aav6508}, pmid = {30442795}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Forests ; *Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid30440075, year = {2018}, author = {Hemmer, CJ and Emmerich, P and Loebermann, M and Frimmel, S and Reisinger, EC}, title = {[Mosquitoes and Ticks: The Influence of Global Warming in the Transmission of Infectious Diseases in Germany].}, journal = {Deutsche medizinische Wochenschrift (1946)}, volume = {143}, number = {23}, pages = {1714-1722}, doi = {10.1055/a-0653-6333}, pmid = {30440075}, issn = {1439-4413}, mesh = {Animals ; *Arthropod Vectors ; *Culicidae ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Ticks ; *Virus Diseases/transmission/virology ; }, abstract = {During the last 135 years, the average temperature in Germany has increased by 1.4 °C. By 2050, a further rise by 1.5 °C is expected. This is associated with an increase of precipitation during the winter months. This climate change probably will improve both the growth conditions for mosquitoes and ticks, as well as their ability to transmit infectious diseases. Today, vectors that have not yet been present are invading into Germany. Among them is Aedes albopictus, which transmits Chikungunya, Zika, and Dengue Fever. Also, spreading of autochthonous malaria and West Nile Fever appear possible in Germany. Because of the increased presence of Phlebotomus species, leishmaniasis should be considered as a potential differential diagnosis in unclear hematologic diseases. Among the tick-borne diseases, climate change has already led to increased case numbers of Borreliosis and Tick Borne Encephalitis (TBE), and Crimean Congo Virus is spreading from the Balkan region towards Central Europe. This requires physicians to consider additional differential diagnoses in febrile illnesses.}, }
@article {pmid30430701, year = {2019}, author = {Varela, MR and Patrício, AR and Anderson, K and Broderick, AC and DeBell, L and Hawkes, LA and Tilley, D and Snape, RTE and Westoby, MJ and Godley, BJ}, title = {Assessing climate change associated sea-level rise impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches using drones, photogrammetry and a novel GPS system.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {753-762}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14526}, pmid = {30430701}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Aircraft ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/instrumentation/*methods ; Geographic Information Systems/instrumentation ; *Nesting Behavior ; Photogrammetry/methods ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change associated sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to have profound impacts on coastal areas, affecting many species, including sea turtles which depend on these habitats for egg incubation. Being able to accurately model beach topography using digital terrain models (DTMs) is therefore crucial to project SLR impacts and develop effective conservation strategies. Traditional survey methods are typically low-cost with low accuracy or high-cost with high accuracy. We present a novel combination of drone-based photogrammetry and a low-cost and portable real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS to create DTMs which are highly accurate (<10 cm error) and visually realistic. This methodology is ideal for surveying coastal sites, can be broadly applied to other species and habitats, and is a relevant tool in supporting the development of Specially Protected Areas. Here, we applied this method as a case-study to project three SLR scenarios (0.48, 0.63 and 1.20 m) and assess the future vulnerability and viability of a key nesting habitat for sympatric loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas) at a key rookery in the Mediterranean. We combined the DTM with 5 years of nest survey data describing location and clutch depth, to identify (a) regions with highest nest densities, (b) nest elevation by species and beach, and (c) estimated proportion of nests inundated under each SLR scenario. On average, green turtles nested at higher elevations than loggerheads (1.8 m vs. 1.32 m, respectively). However, because green turtles dig deeper nests than loggerheads (0.76 m vs. 0.50 m, respectively), these were at similar risk of inundation. For a SLR of 1.2 m, we estimated a loss of 67.3% for loggerhead turtle nests and 59.1% for green turtle nests. Existing natural and artificial barriers may affect the ability of these nesting habitats to remain suitable for nesting through beach migration.}, }
@article {pmid30429613, year = {2018}, author = {Fadrique, B and Báez, S and Duque, &#xc1; and Malizia, A and Blundo, C and Carilla, J and Osinaga-Acosta, O and Malizia, L and Silman, M and Farfán-Ríos, W and Malhi, Y and Young, KR and Cuesta C, F and Homeier, J and Peralvo, M and Pinto, E and Jadan, O and Aguirre, N and Aguirre, Z and Feeley, KJ}, title = {Widespread but heterogeneous responses of Andean forests to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {564}, number = {7735}, pages = {207-212}, pmid = {30429613}, issn = {1476-4687}, support = {DEB-1350125//US National Science Foundation/International ; DEB-1754647//US National Science Foundation/International ; DEB-1258112//US National Science Foundation/International ; EAR-1338694//US National Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Altitude ; *Biodiversity ; Databases, Factual ; Disaster Planning/trends ; Disasters/prevention &amp; control ; Forecasting/methods ; *Forests ; *Global Warming ; Species Specificity ; *Temperature ; Trees/*classification/*physiology ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Global warming is forcing many species to shift their distributions upward, causing consequent changes in the compositions of species that occur at specific locations. This prediction remains largely untested for tropical trees. Here we show, using a database of nearly 200 Andean forest plot inventories spread across more than 33.5° latitude (from 26.8° S to 7.1° N) and 3,000-m elevation (from 360 to 3,360 m above sea level), that tropical and subtropical tree communities are experiencing directional shifts in composition towards having greater relative abundances of species from lower, warmer elevations. Although this phenomenon of 'thermophilization' is widespread throughout the Andes, the rates of compositional change are not uniform across elevations. The observed heterogeneity in thermophilization rates is probably because of different warming rates and/or the presence of specialized tree communities at ecotones (that is, at the transitions between distinct habitats, such as at the timberline or at the base of the cloud forest). Understanding the factors that determine the directions and rates of compositional changes will enable us to better predict, and potentially mitigate, the effects of climate change on tropical forests.}, }
@article {pmid30428540, year = {2018}, author = {Zhao, C and Chen, J and Du, P and Yuan, H}, title = {Characteristics of Climate Change and Extreme Weather from 1951 to 2011 in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {30428540}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change/*history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Temperature ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {It has been demonstrated that climate change is an established fact. A good comprehension of climate and extreme weather variation characteristics on a temporal and a spatial scale is important for adaptation and response. In this work, the characteristics of temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather distribution and variation is summarized for a period of 60 years and the seasonal fluctuation of temperature and precipitation is also analyzed. The results illustrate the reduction in daily and annual temperature divergence on both temporal and spatial scales. However, the gaps remain relatively significant. Furthermore, the disparity in daily and annual precipitation are found to be increasing on both temporal and spatial scales. The findings indicate that climate change, to a certain extent, narrowed the temperature gap while widening the precipitation gap on temporal and spatial scales in China.}, }
@article {pmid30426378, year = {2019}, author = {Fang, J and Lau, CKM and Lu, Z and Wu, W and Zhu, L}, title = {Natural disasters, climate change, and their impact on inclusive wealth in G20 countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {1455-1463}, pmid = {30426378}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {16BJY052//The National Social Science Fund of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; *Developed Countries ; *Economic Development ; Humans ; *Natural Disasters ; Sustainable Development ; }, abstract = {This paper uses the 1990-2010 natural disaster and carbon emission data of G20 countries to examine the impact of natural disasters and climate change on the natural capital component of inclusive wealth. Our study shows that climate change and GDP have no positive impacts on the growth of natural capital. By contrast, trade openness and natural disaster frequency contribute to the accumulation of natural capital in G20 countries. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the growth of natural capital and the magnitude of natural disaster. Natural capital growth is not affected very much by small disasters. By contrast, large disasters tend to make the growth of natural capital fall sharply.}, }
@article {pmid30419441, year = {2019}, author = {Makate, C and Makate, M and Mango, N and Siziba, S}, title = {Increasing resilience of smallholder farmers to climate change through multiple adoption of proven climate-smart agriculture innovations. Lessons from Southern Africa.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {231}, number = {}, pages = {858-868}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.069}, pmid = {30419441}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Africa, Southern ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Malawi ; Zimbabwe ; }, abstract = {Conservation agriculture, drought tolerant maize, and improved legume varieties are key climate change management strategies for smallholder farmers in southern Africa. Their complementary efforts in adaptation to climate change are sternly important for farm productivity and income. This study evaluates factors explaining individual and multiple adoption of climate change management strategies and their differential impacts on productivity and income using a sample of 1172 smallholder farmers from Malawi and Zimbabwe. The study employs multinomial logistic regression to evaluate factors of individual and multiple adoption and regression adjustment with inverse probability weighting to evaluate impacts of the different adoption regimes on farm productivity and income. The results show that multiple adoption of innovations is mostly explained by access to key resources (credit, income and information), level of education and size of land owned by the farmer. More so, the concurrent adoption of conservation agriculture, stress adapted legume varieties and drought tolerant maize has far greater dividends on productivity and income than when considered individually. However, impacts of multiple adoption of the practices are not entirely uniform across different geographic regions and gender. Results suggest that effective institutional and policy efforts targeted towards reducing resource constraints that inhibit farmers' capacity to adopt complementary climate-smart agriculture packages such as conservation agriculture, drought tolerant maize and improved legume varieties must be gender sensitive and context specific.}, }
@article {pmid30418152, year = {2018}, author = {Zohner, CM and Mo, L and Renner, SS}, title = {Global warming reduces leaf-out and flowering synchrony among individuals.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {30418152}, issn = {2050-084X}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; Flowers/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Models, Theoretical ; Photoperiod ; Plant Leaves/*physiology ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The temporal overlap of phenological stages, phenological synchrony, crucially influences ecosystem functioning. For flowering, among-individual synchrony influences gene flow. For leaf-out, it affects interactions with herbivores and competing plants. If individuals differ in their reaction to the ongoing change in global climate, this should affect population-level synchrony. Here, we use climate-manipulation experiments, Pan-European long-term (>15 years) observations, and common garden monitoring data on up to 72 woody and herbaceous species to study the effects of increasing temperatures on the extent of leaf-out and flowering synchrony within populations. Warmer temperatures reduce in situ leaf-out and flowering synchrony by up to 55%, and experiments on European beech provide a mechanism for how individual differences in day-length and/or chilling sensitivity may explain this finding. The rapid loss of reproductive and vegetative synchrony in European plants predicts changes in their gene flow and trophic interactions, but community-wide consequences remain largely unknown.<br><br>EDITORIAL NOTE: This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).}, }
@article {pmid30417977, year = {2019}, author = {Jarić, I and Lennox, RJ and Kalinkat, G and Cvijanović, G and Radinger, J}, title = {Susceptibility of European freshwater fish to climate change: Species profiling based on life-history and environmental characteristics.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {448-458}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14518}, pmid = {30417977}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Fishes/*physiology ; Fresh Water ; *Life History Traits ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to strongly affect freshwater fish communities. Combined with other anthropogenic drivers, the impacts may alter species spatio-temporal distributions and contribute to population declines and local extinctions. To provide timely management and conservation of fishes, it is relevant to identify species that will be most impacted by climate change and those that will be resilient. Species traits are considered a promising source of information on characteristics that influence resilience to various environmental conditions and impacts. To this end, we collated life-history traits and climatic niches of 443 European freshwater fish species and compared those identified as susceptible to climate change to those that are considered to be resilient. Significant differences were observed between the two groups in their distribution, life history, and climatic niche, with climate-change-susceptible species being distributed within the Mediterranean region, and being characterized by greater threat levels, lesser commercial relevance, lower vulnerability to fishing, smaller body and range size, and warmer thermal envelopes. Based on our results, we establish a list of species of highest priority for further research and monitoring regarding climate-change susceptibility within Europe. The presented approach represents a promising tool to efficiently assess large groups of species regarding their susceptibility to climate change and other threats, and to identify research and management priorities.}, }
@article {pmid30414338, year = {2019}, author = {Coleman, MA and Butcherine, P and Kelaher, BP and Broadhurst, MK and March, DT and Provost, EJ and David, J and Benkendorff, K}, title = {Climate change does not affect the seafood quality of a commonly targeted fish.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {699-707}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14513}, pmid = {30414338}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; *Food Quality ; Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; New South Wales ; Perciformes/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Seafood/*analysis ; Seawater/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Climate change can affect marine and estuarine fish via alterations to their distributions, abundances, sizes, physiology and ecological interactions, threatening the provision of ecosystem goods and services. While we have an emerging understanding of such ecological impacts to fish, we know little about the potential influence of climate change on the provision of nutritional seafood to sustain human populations. In particular, the quantity, quality and/or taste of seafood may be altered by future environmental changes with implications for the economic viability of fisheries. In an orthogonal mesocosm experiment, we tested the influence of near-future ocean warming and acidification on the growth, health and seafood quality of a recreationally and commercially important fish, yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis). The growth of yellowfin bream significantly increased under near-future temperature conditions (but not acidification), with little change in health (blood glucose and haematocrit) or tissue biochemistry and nutritional properties (fatty acids, lipids, macro- and micronutrients, moisture, ash and total N). Yellowfin bream appear to be highly resilient to predicted near-future ocean climate change, which might be facilitated by their wide spatio-temporal distribution across habitats and broad diet. Moreover, an increase in growth, but little change in tissue quality, suggests that near-future ocean conditions will benefit fisheries and fishers that target yellowfin bream. The data reiterate the inherent resilience of yellowfin bream as an evolutionary consequence of their euryhaline status in often environmentally challenging habitats and imply their sustainable and viable fisheries into the future. We contend that widely distributed species that span large geographic areas and habitats can be "climate winners" by being resilient to the negative direct impacts of near-future oceanic and estuarine climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30413121, year = {2018}, author = {Gao, X and Wang, A and Zhao, Y and Zhao, X and Sun, M and Du, J and Gang, C}, title = {Study on Water Suitability of Apple Plantations in the Loess Plateau under Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {30413121}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Farms ; Forecasting ; *Malus ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Water Resources ; Weather ; }, abstract = {With the implementation of the Grain for Green Project, the apple plantation area is increasing in Loess Plateau. However, due to severe water scarcity, the sustainability of apple tree growth is threatened. In this paper, we used meteorological data (1990[-]2013) and forecasted climate data (2019[-]2050) to estimate water demand and establish a water suitability model to study the water balance between available water and water consumption of the apple trees. The results show that: (i) the order of the average water demand of apple plantation in each subarea is Shaanxi Province > Yuncheng area > Gansu Province > Sanmenxia Region, ranging from 500 to 950 mm; (ii) the temporal variability of water suitability from 1990 to 2013 is large, and the higher values are concentrated in the late growth stage of the apple trees and the lower values are concentrated in the early growth stage; (iii) the temporal and spatial distribution of water suitability is relatively stable and even in the Loess Plateau in the period of 2019[-]2050; (iv) the water suitability is mainly affected by effective precipitation and reference evapotranspiration and the reference evapotranspiration is mainly affected by the solar radiation (36%) and average temperature (38%). Furthermore, due to the joint influence of precipitation increases and solar radiation (average temperature) increases, the future water suitability of the apple plantation area in the Loess Plateau is showing a non-significant downward trend under RCP4.5 scenario.}, }
@article {pmid30412888, year = {2019}, author = {Op de Hipt, F and Diekkrüger, B and Steup, G and Yira, Y and Hoffmann, T and Rode, M and Näschen, K}, title = {Modeling the effect of land use and climate change on water resources and soil erosion in a tropical West African catch-ment (Dano, Burkina Faso) using SHETRAN.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {653}, number = {}, pages = {431-445}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.351}, pmid = {30412888}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study investigates the effect of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate change on catchment hydrology and soil erosion in the Dano catchment in south-western Burkina Faso based on hydrological and soil erosion modeling. The past LULC change is studied using land use maps of the years 1990, 2000, 2007 and 2013. Based on these maps future LULC scenarios were developed for the years 2019, 2025 and 2030. The observed past and modeled future LULC are used to feed SHETRAN, a hydrological and soil erosion model. Observed and modeled climate data cover the period 1990-2030. The isolated influence of LULC change assuming a constant climate is simulated by applying the seven LULC maps under observed climate data of the period 1990-2015. The isolated effect of climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5 of CCLM4-8) is studied by applying the LULC map of 1990 to the period 1990-2032. Additionally, we combined past modeled climate data and past observed LULC maps. Two chronological and continuous simulations were used to estimate the impact of LULC in the past and in the future by gradually applying the LULC maps. These simulations consider the combined impact of LULC and climate change. The simulations that assumed a constant climate and a changing LULC show increasing water yield (3.6%-46.5%) and mainly increasing specific sediment yield (-3.3%-52.6%). The simulations that assume constant LULC and climate as changing factor indicate increases in water yield of 24.5% to 46.7% and in sediment yield of 31.1% to 54.7% between the periods 1990-2005 and 2006-2032. The continuous simulations signal a clear increase in water yield (20.3%-73.4%) and specific sediment yield (24.7% to 90.1%). Actual evapotranspiration is estimated to change by between -7.3% (only LUCC) to +3.3% (only climate change). When comparing observed LULC and climate change alone, climate change has a larger impact on discharge and sediment yield, but LULC amplifies climate change impacts strongly. However, future LULC (2019-2030) will have a stronger impact as currently observed.}, }
@article {pmid30409881, year = {2018}, author = {Kubelka, V and Šálek, M and Tomkovich, P and Végvári, Z and Freckleton, RP and Székely, T}, title = {Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6415}, pages = {680-683}, doi = {10.1126/science.aat8695}, pmid = {30409881}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; Nesting Behavior/*physiology ; Predatory Behavior/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change is thought to disrupt trophic relationships, with consequences for complex interspecific interactions, yet the effects of climate change on species interactions are poorly understood, and such effects have not been documented at a global scale. Using a single database of 38,191 nests from 237 populations, we found that shorebirds have experienced a worldwide increase in nest predation over the past 70 years. Historically, there existed a latitudinal gradient in nest predation, with the highest rates in the tropics; however, this pattern has been recently reversed in the Northern Hemisphere, most notably in the Arctic. This increased nest predation is consistent with climate-induced shifts in predator-prey relationships.}, }
@article {pmid30409435, year = {2018}, author = {Godin-Beekmann, S}, title = {[Impact of climate change and ozone layer evolution on surface ultraviolet radiation].}, journal = {Annales de dermatologie et de venereologie}, volume = {145}, number = {12S}, pages = {S7-S8}, doi = {10.1016/j.annder.2018.09.159}, pmid = {30409435}, issn = {0151-9638}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced/epidemiology ; Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology ; *Stratospheric Ozone ; Sunlight ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; Vitamin D/metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid30408274, year = {2019}, author = {Bryndum-Buchholz, A and Tittensor, DP and Blanchard, JL and Cheung, WWL and Coll, M and Galbraith, ED and Jennings, S and Maury, O and Lotze, HK}, title = {Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {459-472}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14512}, pmid = {30408274}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; *Biomass ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%-30% (±12%-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%-80% (±35%-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.}, }
@article {pmid30408266, year = {2019}, author = {Salas, RN and Slutzman, JE and Sorensen, C and Lemery, J and Hess, JJ}, title = {Climate Change and Health: An Urgent Call to Academic Emergency Medicine.}, journal = {Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {837-840}, doi = {10.1111/acem.13657}, pmid = {30408266}, issn = {1553-2712}, }
@article {pmid30408043, year = {2018}, author = {Montero, N and Dei Marcovaldi, MAG and Lopez-Mendilaharsu, M and Santos, AS and Santos, AJB and Fuentes, MMPB}, title = {Warmer and wetter conditions will reduce offspring production of hawksbill turtles in Brazil under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e0204188}, pmid = {30408043}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Humidity ; *Models, Biological ; Reproduction/physiology ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to impact animals that are heavily reliant on environmental factors, such as sea turtles, since the incubation of their eggs, hatching success and sex ratio are influenced by the environment in which eggs incubate. As climate change progresses it is therefore important to understand how climatic conditions influence their reproductive output and the ramifications to population stability. Here, we examined the influences of five climatic variables (air temperature, accumulated and average precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at different temporal scales on hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) hatchling production at ten nesting beaches within two regions of Brazil (five nesting beaches in Rio Grande do Norte and five in Bahia). Air temperature and accumulated precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hawksbill hatching success (number of eggs hatched within a nest) across Brazil and in Rio Grande do Norte, while air temperature and average precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hatching success at Bahia. Solar radiation was the main climatic driver of emergence success (number of hatchlings that emerged from total hatched eggs within a nest) at both regions. Warmer temperatures and higher solar radiation had negative effects on hatchling production, while wetter conditions had a positive effect. Conservative and extreme climate scenarios show air temperatures are projected to increase at this site, while precipitation projections vary between scenarios and regions throughout the 21st century. We predicted hatching success of undisturbed nests (no recorded depredation or storm-related impacts) will decrease in Brazil by 2100 as a result of how this population is influenced by local climate. This study shows the determining effects of different climate variables and their combinations on an important and critically endangered marine species.}, }
@article {pmid30408029, year = {2018}, author = {Alexander, KA and Heaney, AK and Shaman, J}, title = {Hydrometeorology and flood pulse dynamics drive diarrheal disease outbreaks and increase vulnerability to climate change in surface-water-dependent populations: A retrospective analysis.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {e1002688}, pmid = {30408029}, issn = {1549-1676}, support = {T32 ES023770/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; U01 GM110748/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Age Factors ; Botswana/epidemiology ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Diarrhea, Infantile/diagnosis/epidemiology/*microbiology ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Escherichia coli/isolation &amp; purification/*pathogenicity ; Escherichia coli Infections/diagnosis/epidemiology/*microbiology/transmission ; Female ; *Floods ; Humans ; Infant ; Male ; Public Health ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Rivers/*microbiology ; Seasons ; *Water Microbiology ; *Water Quality ; *Water Supply ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impacts of climate change on surface water, waterborne disease, and human health remain a growing area of concern, particularly in Africa, where diarrheal disease is one of the most important health threats to children under 5 years of age. Little is known about the role of surface water and annual flood dynamics (flood pulse) on waterborne disease and human health nor about the expected impact of climate change on surface-water-dependent populations.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the Chobe River in northern Botswana, a flood pulse river-floodplain system, we applied multimodel inference approaches assessing the influence of river height, water quality (bimonthly counts of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids [TSS], 2011-2017), and meteorological variability on weekly diarrheal case reports among children under 5 presenting to health facilities (n = 10 health facilities, January 2007-June 2017). We assessed diarrheal cases by clinical characteristics and season across age groups using monthly outpatient data (January 1998-June 2017). A strong seasonal pattern was identified, with 2 outbreaks occurring regularly in the wet and dry seasons. The timing of outbreaks diverged from that at the level of the country, where surface water is largely absent. Across age groups, the number of diarrheal cases was greater, on average, during the dry season. Demographic and clinical characteristics varied by season, underscoring the importance of environmental drivers. In the wet season, rainfall (8-week lag) had a significant influence on under-5 diarrhea, with a 10-mm increase in rainfall associated with an estimated 6.5% rise in the number of cases. Rainfall, minimum temperature, and river height were predictive of E. coli concentration, and increases in E. coli in the river were positively associated with diarrheal cases. In the dry season, river height (1-week lag) and maximum temperature (1- and 4-week lag) were significantly associated with diarrheal cases. During this period, a 1-meter drop in river height corresponded to an estimated 16.7% and 16.1% increase in reported diarrhea with a 1- and 4-week lag, respectively. In this region, as floodwaters receded from the surrounding floodplains, TSS levels increased and were positively associated with diarrheal cases (0- and 3-week lag). Populations living in this region utilized improved water sources, suggesting that hydrological variability and rapid water quality shifts in surface waters may compromise water treatment processes. Limitations include the potential influence of health beliefs and health seeking behaviors on data obtained through passive surveillance.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In flood pulse river-floodplain systems, hydrology and water quality dynamics can be highly variable, potentially impacting conventional water treatment facilities and the production of safe drinking water. In Southern Africa, climate change is predicted to intensify hydrological variability and the frequency of extreme weather events, amplifying the public health threat of waterborne disease in surface-water-dependent populations. Water sector development should be prioritized with urgency, incorporating technologies that are robust to local environmental conditions and expected climate-driven impacts. In populations with high HIV burdens, expansion of diarrheal disease surveillance and intervention strategies may also be needed. As annual flood pulse processes are predominantly influenced by climate controls in distant regions, country-level data may be inadequate to refine predictions of climate-health interactions in these systems.}, }
@article {pmid30406962, year = {2019}, author = {Esquivel-Muelbert, A and Baker, TR and Dexter, KG and Lewis, SL and Brienen, RJW and Feldpausch, TR and Lloyd, J and Monteagudo-Mendoza, A and Arroyo, L and Álvarez-Dávila, E and Higuchi, N and Marimon, BS and Marimon-Junior, BH and Silveira, M and Vilanova, E and Gloor, E and Malhi, Y and Chave, J and Barlow, J and Bonal, D and Davila Cardozo, N and Erwin, T and Fauset, S and Hérault, B and Laurance, S and Poorter, L and Qie, L and Stahl, C and Sullivan, MJP and Ter Steege, H and Vos, VA and Zuidema, PA and Almeida, E and Almeida de Oliveira, E and Andrade, A and Vieira, SA and Aragão, L and Araujo-Murakami, A and Arets, E and Aymard C, GA and Baraloto, C and Camargo, PB and Barroso, JG and Bongers, F and Boot, R and Camargo, JL and Castro, W and Chama Moscoso, V and Comiskey, J and Cornejo Valverde, F and Lola da Costa, AC and Del Aguila Pasquel, J and Di Fiore, A and Fernanda Duque, L and Elias, F and Engel, J and Flores Llampazo, G and Galbraith, D and Herrera Fernández, R and Honorio Coronado, E and Hubau, W and Jimenez-Rojas, E and Lima, AJN and Umetsu, RK and Laurance, W and Lopez-Gonzalez, G and Lovejoy, T and Aurelio Melo Cruz, O and Morandi, PS and Neill, D and Núñez Vargas, P and Pallqui Camacho, NC and Parada Gutierrez, A and Pardo, G and Peacock, J and Peña-Claros, M and Peñuela-Mora, MC and Petronelli, P and Pickavance, GC and Pitman, N and Prieto, A and Quesada, C and Ramírez-Angulo, H and Réjou-Méchain, M and Restrepo Correa, Z and Roopsind, A and Rudas, A and Salomão, R and Silva, N and Silva Espejo, J and Singh, J and Stropp, J and Terborgh, J and Thomas, R and Toledo, M and Torres-Lezama, A and Valenzuela Gamarra, L and van de Meer, PJ and van der Heijden, G and van der Hout, P and Vasquez Martinez, R and Vela, C and Vieira, ICG and Phillips, OL}, title = {Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {39-56}, pmid = {30406962}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//European Research Council (ERC)/International ; }, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Brazil ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Seasons ; Trees/classification/physiology ; Tropical Climate ; Water ; }, abstract = {Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30405277, year = {2018}, author = {Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Guo, Y and Sera, F and Huber, V and Schleussner, CF and Mitchell, D and Tong, S and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M and Saldiva, PHN and Lavigne, E and Correa, PM and Ortega, NV and Kan, H and Osorio, S and Kyselý, J and Urban, A and Jaakkola, JJK and Ryti, NRI and Pascal, M and Goodman, PG and Zeka, A and Michelozzi, P and Scortichini, M and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y and Hurtado-Diaz, M and Cruz, J and Seposo, X and Kim, H and Tobias, A and Íñiguez, C and Forsberg, B and Åström, DO and Ragettli, MS and Röösli, M and Guo, YL and Wu, CF and Zanobetti, A and Schwartz, J and Bell, ML and Dang, TN and Van, DD and Heaviside, C and Vardoulakis, S and Hajat, S and Haines, A and Armstrong, B and Ebi, KL and Gasparrini, A}, title = {Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {150}, number = {3-4}, pages = {391-402}, pmid = {30405277}, issn = {0165-0009}, support = {MR/M022625/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; MR/R013349/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C". The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.}, }
@article {pmid30404727, year = {2018}, author = {Obradovich, N and Migliorini, R}, title = {Sleep and the human impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Sleep medicine reviews}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.smrv.2018.09.002}, pmid = {30404727}, issn = {1532-2955}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Sleep/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid30402535, year = {2018}, author = {d'Alpoim Guedes, J and Bocinsky, RK}, title = {Climate change stimulated agricultural innovation and exchange across Asia.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {eaar4491}, pmid = {30402535}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Agriculture/*history/*methods ; Asia ; China ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*history ; History, Ancient ; *Models, Theoretical ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {Ancient farmers experienced climate change at the local level through variations in the yields of their staple crops. However, archaeologists have had difficulty in determining where, when, and how changes in climate affected ancient farmers. We model how several key transitions in temperature affected the productivity of six grain crops across Eurasia. Cooling events between 3750 and 3000 cal. BP lead humans in parts of the Tibetan Plateau and in Central Asia to diversify their crops. A second event at 2000 cal. BP leads farmers in central China to also diversify their cropping systems and to develop systems that allowed transport of grains from southern to northern China. In other areas where crop returns fared even worse, humans reduced their risk by increasing investment in nomadic pastoralism and developing long-distance networks of trade. By translating changes in climatic variables into factors that mattered to ancient farmers, we situate the adaptive strategies they developed to deal with variance in crop returns in the context of environmental and climatic changes.}, }
@article {pmid30402056, year = {2018}, author = {Bezeng, BS and Tesfamichael, SG and Dayananda, B and , }, title = {Predicting the effect of climate change on a range-restricted lizard in southeastern Australia.}, journal = {Current zoology}, volume = {64}, number = {2}, pages = {165-171}, pmid = {30402056}, issn = {1674-5507}, abstract = {Climate change is ranked as one of the most severe threats to global biodiversity. This global phenomenon is particularly true for reptiles whose biology and ecology are closely linked to climate. In this study, we used over 1,300 independent occurrence points and different climate change emission scenarios to evaluate the potential risk of changing climatic conditions on the current and future potential distribution of a rock-dwelling lizard; the velvet gecko. Furthermore, we investigated if the current extent of protected area networks in Australia captures the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Our results show that climate change projections for the year 2075 have the potential to alter the distribution of the velvet gecko in southeastern Australia. Specifically, climate change may favor the range expansion of this species to encompass more suitable habitats. The trend of range expansion was qualitatively similar across the different climate change scenarios used. Additionally, we observed that the current network of protected areas in southeast Australia does not fully account for the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Ongoing climate change may profoundly affect the potential range distribution of the velvet gecko population. Therefore, the restricted habitat of the velvet geckos should be the focus of intensive pre-emptive management efforts. This management prioritization should be extended to encompass the increases in suitable habitats observed in this study in order to maximize the microhabitats available for the survival of this species.}, }
@article {pmid30401921, year = {2018}, author = {Bauduin, S and McIntire, E and St-Laurent, MH and Cumming, SG}, title = {Compensatory conservation measures for an endangered caribou population under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {16438}, pmid = {30401921}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Endangered Species ; Population Dynamics ; Reindeer/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Future human land use and climate change may disrupt movement behaviors of terrestrial animals, thereby altering the ability of individuals to move across a landscape. Some of the expected changes result from processes whose effects will be difficult to alter, such as global climate change. We present a novel framework in which we use models to (1) identify the ecological changes from these difficult-to-alter processes, as well as (2) the potential conservation measures that are best able to compensate for these changes. We illustrated this framework with the case of an endangered caribou population in Québec, Canada. We coupled a spatially explicit individual-based movement model with a range of landscape scenarios to assess the impacts of varying degrees of climate change, and the ability of conservation actions to compensate for such impacts on caribou movement behaviors. We found that (1) climate change impacts reduced movement potential, and that (2) the complete restoration of secondary roads inside protected areas was able to fully offset this reduction, suggesting that road restoration would be an effective compensatory conservation action. By evaluating conservation actions via landscape use simulated by an individual-based model, we were able to identify compensatory conservation options for an endangered species facing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30400337, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, GJ and Bergquist, R}, title = {Potential Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis: A Global Assessment Attempt.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and infectious disease}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {30400337}, issn = {2414-6366}, abstract = {Based on an ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs), four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and several ongoing and planned Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global, average temperatures will increase by at least 1.5 °C in the near future and more by the end of the century if greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are not genuinely tempered. While the RCPs are indicative of various amounts of GHGs in the atmosphere the CMIPs are designed to improve the workings of the GCMs. We chose RCP4.5 which represented a medium GHG emission increase and CMIP5, the most recently completed CMIP phase. Combining this meteorological model with a biological counterpart model accounted for replication and survival of the snail intermediate host as well as maturation of the parasite stage inside the snail at different ambient temperatures. The potential geographical distribution of the three main schistosome species: Schistosoma japonicum, S. mansoni and S. haematobium was investigated with reference to their different transmission capabilities at the monthly mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month(s) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month(s). The set of six maps representing the predicted situations in 2021[-]2050 and 2071[-]2100 for each species mainly showed increased transmission areas for all three species but they also left room for potential shrinkages in certain areas.}, }
@article {pmid30398569, year = {2018}, author = {Clearfield, M and Davis, G and Weiss, J and Gayer, G and Shubrook, JH}, title = {Cardiovascular Disease as a Result of the Interactions Between Obesity, Climate Change, and Inflammation: The COCCI Syndemic.}, journal = {The Journal of the American Osteopathic Association}, volume = {118}, number = {11}, pages = {719-729}, doi = {10.7556/jaoa.2018.157}, pmid = {30398569}, issn = {1945-1997}, mesh = {Body Mass Index ; Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis/*epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Female ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Inflammation/diagnosis/epidemiology ; Male ; Metabolic Syndrome/diagnosis/*epidemiology ; Needs Assessment ; Obesity/diagnosis/*epidemiology ; Prevalence ; Risk Assessment ; *Syndemic ; }, abstract = {Obesity and climate change conspire to create an environment in which subclinical vascular inflammation leads to progressive atherosclerosis, which contributes to the number 1 cause of global mortality: cardiovascular disease. The syndemic model requires 2 or more diseases or contributors to disease (such as obesity and climate change) clustering within a specific population in addition to the associated societal and social factors, ultimately creating an environment supportive of a greater adverse interaction. This article explores the syndemic of obesity and climate change as a driver for cardiovascular disease.}, }
@article {pmid30395645, year = {2018}, author = {Jaime, R and Alcántara, JM and Manzaneda, AJ and Rey, PJ}, title = {Climate change decreases suitable areas for rapeseed cultivation in Europe but provides new opportunities for white mustard as an alternative oilseed for biofuel production.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {e0207124}, pmid = {30395645}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biofuels ; *Brassica napus ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Europe ; Models, Theoretical ; Plant Dispersal ; Plant Oils ; *Sinapis ; }, abstract = {Oilseed crops, including several mustards, are cultivated as biofuel sources worldwide. However, common mustard crops (e.g., the rapeseed Brassica napus) grow naturally in mesic temperate regions, which are expected to be impaired by global warming and increased aridity. In particular, increased aridity is predicted to reduce the oil concentration and seed yield of rapeseed crops. There is therefore an urgent need to identify alternative bioenergy crops that are preadapted to future climatic conditions. An alternative to conventional Brassica species for biodiesel production is the white mustard Sinapis alba, which is native to the circum-Mediterranean region and has a high seed lipid content. S. alba grows spontaneously in olive groves and other widespread Mediterranean crops; accordingly, it could be easily cultivated by companion planting to improve ecosystem function by decreasing soil loss, controlling microbial disease, and assisting in the maintenance of biodiversity. In this study, using species distribution modeling, we predicted climatically suitable areas for the cultivation of S. alba in Western Europe across the Mediterranean Basin under present climatic conditions and several climate change scenarios. We show that current climatically suitable areas for S. alba cultivation do not overlap with those for B. napus. Unlike B. napus, S. alba could be cultivated throughout most of the circum-Mediterranean region. According to our models, increases in aridity and annual mean temperatures will expand the climatically suitable areas for S. alba in the Mediterranean Basin. However, suitable areas for the cultivation of B. napus will decrease significantly in Western Europe. Our results indicate that S. alba is a strong, environmentally safe candidate for biofuel production throughout the Mediterranean Basin and other Western European countries, especially under climate change scenarios that are expected to impair current oilseed crops.}, }
@article {pmid30393928, year = {2019}, author = {Lehikoinen, P and Santangeli, A and Jaatinen, K and Rajasärkkä, A and Lehikoinen, A}, title = {Protected areas act as a buffer against detrimental effects of climate change-Evidence from large-scale, long-term abundance data.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {304-313}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14461}, pmid = {30393928}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Finland ; }, abstract = {Climate change is driving species to shift their distributions toward high altitudes and latitudes, while habitat loss and fragmentation may hamper species ability to follow their climatic envelope. These two drivers of change may act in synergy, with particularly disastrous impacts on biodiversity. Protected areas, PAs, may thus represent crucial buffers against the compounded effects of climate change and habitat loss. However, large-scale studies assessing the performance of PAs as such buffers remain scarce and are largely based on species occurrence data. Conversely, abundance data have proven to be more reliable for addressing changes in wildlife populations under climate change. We evaluated changes in bird abundance from the 1970s-80s to the 2000s inside and outside PAs at the trailing range edge of 30 northern bird species and at the leading range edge of 70 southern species. Abundances of retracting northern species were higher and declined less inside PAs at their trailing range edge. The positive effect of PAs on bird abundances was particularly marked in northern species that rely strongly on PAs, that is, their density distribution is largely confined within PAs. These species were nearly absent outside PAs in the 2000s. The abundances of southern species were in general lower inside PAs and increased less from the 70s-80s to 2000s. Nonetheless, species with high reliance on PAs had much higher abundances inside than outside PAs in the 2000s. These results show that PAs are essential in mitigating the retraction of northern species, but also facilitate northward expansions of southern species highly reliant on PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence documenting the role of PAs in facilitating species to adjust to rapidly changing climatic conditions, thereby contributing to the mitigation of impending biodiversity loss. PAs may thus allow time for initiating wider conservation programs on currently unprotected land.}, }
@article {pmid30393451, year = {2018}, author = {Hamidov, A and Helming, K and Bellocchi, G and Bojar, W and Dalgaard, T and Ghaley, BB and Hoffmann, C and Holman, I and Holzkämper, A and Krzeminska, D and Kværnø, SH and Lehtonen, H and Niedrist, G and Øygarden, L and Reidsma, P and Roggero, PP and Rusu, T and Santos, C and Seddaiu, G and Skarbøvik, E and Ventrella, D and Żarski, J and Schönhart, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies.}, journal = {Land degradation &amp; development}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {2378-2389}, pmid = {30393451}, issn = {1099-145X}, abstract = {Soils are vital for supporting food security and other ecosystem services. Climate change can affect soil functions both directly and indirectly. Direct effects include temperature, precipitation, and moisture regime changes. Indirect effects include those that are induced by adaptations such as irrigation, crop rotation changes, and tillage practices. Although extensive knowledge is available on the direct effects, an understanding of the indirect effects of agricultural adaptation options is less complete. A review of 20 agricultural adaptation case-studies across Europe was conducted to assess implications to soil threats and soil functions and the link to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The major findings are as follows: (a) adaptation options reflect local conditions; (b) reduced soil erosion threats and increased soil organic carbon are expected, although compaction may increase in some areas; (c) most adaptation options are anticipated to improve the soil functions of food and biomass production, soil organic carbon storage, and storing, filtering, transforming, and recycling capacities, whereas possible implications for soil biodiversity are largely unknown; and (d) the linkage between soil functions and the SDGs implies improvements to SDG 2 (achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture) and SDG 13 (taking action on climate change), whereas the relationship to SDG 15 (using terrestrial ecosystems sustainably) is largely unknown. The conclusion is drawn that agricultural adaptation options, even when focused on increasing yields, have the potential to outweigh the negative direct effects of climate change on soil degradation in many European regions.}, }
@article {pmid30390399, year = {2019}, author = {Reside, AE and Critchell, K and Crayn, DM and Goosem, M and Goosem, S and Hoskin, CJ and Sydes, T and Vanderduys, EP and Pressey, RL}, title = {Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species' fates under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {e01824}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1824}, pmid = {30390399}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {//Australian Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The need to proactively manage landscapes and species to aid their adaptation to climate change is widely acknowledged. Current approaches to prioritizing investment in species conservation generally rely on correlative models, which predict the likely fate of species under different climate change scenarios. Yet, while model statistics can be improved by refining modeling techniques, gaps remain in understanding the relationship between model performance and ecological reality. To investigate this, we compared standard correlative species distribution models to highly accurate, fine-scale, distribution models. We critically assessed the ecological realism of each species' model, using expert knowledge of the geography and habitat in the study area and the biology of the study species. Using interactive software and an iterative vetting with experts, we identified seven general principles that explain why the distribution modeling under- or overestimated habitat suitability, under both current and predicted future climates. Importantly, we found that, while temperature estimates can be dramatically improved through better climate downscaling, many models still inaccurately reflected moisture availability. Furthermore, the correlative models did not account for biotic factors, such as disease or competitor species, and were unable to account for the likely presence of micro refugia. Under-performing current models resulted in widely divergent future projections of species' distributions. Expert vetting identified regions that were likely to contain micro refugia, even where the fine-scale future projections of species distributions predicted population losses. Based on the results, we identify four priority conservation actions required for more effective climate change adaptation responses. This approach to improving the ecological realism of correlative models to understand climate change impacts on species can be applied broadly to improve the evidence base underpinning management responses.}, }
@article {pmid30385868, year = {2018}, author = {Lim, YK and Schubert, SD and Kovach, R and Molod, AM and Pawson, S}, title = {The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {16172}, pmid = {30385868}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 °C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 °C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.}, }
@article {pmid30385766, year = {2018}, author = {Hummel, M and Hallahan, BF and Brychkova, G and Ramirez-Villegas, J and Guwela, V and Chataika, B and Curley, E and McKeown, PC and Morrison, L and Talsma, EF and Beebe, S and Jarvis, A and Chirwa, R and Spillane, C}, title = {Reduction in nutritional quality and growing area suitability of common bean under climate change induced drought stress in Africa.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {16187}, pmid = {30385766}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change impacts on food security will involve negative impacts on crop yields, and potentially on the nutritional quality of staple crops. Common bean is the most important grain legume staple crop for human diets and nutrition worldwide. We demonstrate by crop modeling that the majority of current common bean growing areas in southeastern Africa will become unsuitable for bean cultivation by the year 2050. We further demonstrate reductions in yields of available common bean varieties in a field trial that is a climate analogue site for future predicted drought conditions. Little is known regarding the impact of climate change induced abiotic stresses on the nutritional quality of common beans. Our analysis of nutritional and antinutritional compounds reveals that iron levels in common bean grains are reduced under future climate-scenario relevant drought stress conditions. In contrast, the levels of protein, zinc, lead and phytic acid increase in the beans under such drought stress conditions. This indicates that under climate-change induced drought scenarios, future bean servings by 2050 will likely have lower nutritional quality, posing challenges for ongoing climate-proofing of bean production for yields, nutritional quality, human health, and food security.}, }
@article {pmid30380686, year = {2018}, author = {Bishop-Williams, KE and Berrang-Ford, L and Sargeant, JM and Pearl, DL and Lwasa, S and Namanya, DB and Edge, VL and Cunsolo, A and ,  and ,  and Huang, Y and Ford, J and Garcia, P and Harper, SL}, title = {Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {30380686}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {X//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/*methods ; Female ; *Health Services Needs and Demand ; Hospitalization/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Theoretical ; Poisson Distribution ; Seasons ; Uganda ; *Weather ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Background: Season and weather are associated with many health outcomes, which can influence hospital admission rates. We examined associations between hospital admissions (all diagnoses) and local meteorological parameters in Southwestern Uganda, with the aim of supporting hospital planning and preparedness in the context of climate change. Methods: Hospital admissions data and meteorological data were collected from Bwindi Community Hospital and a satellite database of weather conditions, respectively (2011 to 2014). Descriptive statistics were used to describe admission patterns. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was fitted to investigate associations between hospital admissions and season, precipitation, and temperature. Results: Admission counts were highest for acute respiratory infections, malaria, and acute gastrointestinal illness, which are climate-sensitive diseases. Hospital admissions were 1.16 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.31; p = 0.008) times higher during extreme high temperatures (i.e., >95th percentile) on the day of admission. Hospital admissions association with season depended on year; admissions were higher in the dry season than the rainy season every year, except for 2014. Discussion: Effective adaptation strategy characteristics include being low-cost and quick and practical to implement at local scales. Herein, we illustrate how analyzing hospital data alongside meteorological parameters may inform climate-health planning in low-resource contexts.}, }
@article {pmid30380174, year = {2018}, author = {Li, J and Li, D and Xue, Y and Wu, B and He, X and Liu, F}, title = {Identifying potential refugia and corridors under climate change: A case study of endangered Sichuan golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Qinling Mountains, China.}, journal = {American journal of primatology}, volume = {80}, number = {11}, pages = {e22929}, pmid = {30380174}, issn = {1098-2345}, support = {2013BAD03B03//National Science &amp; Technology Pillar Program for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period-Technology of Habitat Assessment and Restoration for Shennongjia Golden Monkey/International ; 2018M631624//Project Funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; Colobinae/*physiology ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Geography ; Parks, Recreational ; *Refugium ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens endangered species and challenges current conservation strategies. Effective conservation requires vulnerability assessments for species susceptible to climate change and adaptive strategies to mitigate threats associated with climate. In this paper, we used the Maxent to model the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Sichuan golden monkey Rhinopithecus roxellana. Our results showed that (i) suitable habitat for Sichuan golden monkey was predicted to decrease by 37% in 2050s under climate change; (ii) the mean elevations of suitable habitat in the 2050s was estimated to shift 160 m higher; (iii) nature reserves protect 62% of current suitable habitat and 56% of future suitable habitat; and (iv) 49% of current suitable habitat was predicted to be vulnerable to future climate change. Given these results, we proposed conservation implications to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Sichuan golden monkey, including adjusting range of national park, establishing habitat corridors, and conducting long-term monitoring.}, }
@article {pmid30379857, year = {2018}, author = {Case, MJ and Stinson, KA}, title = {Climate change impacts on the distribution of the allergenic plant, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in the eastern United States.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0205677}, pmid = {30379857}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Ambrosia/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; *Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal ; United States ; Weed Control ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts.}, }
@article {pmid30379845, year = {2018}, author = {Vicens, J and Bueno-Guerra, N and Gutiérrez-Roig, M and Gracia-Lázaro, C and Gómez-Gardeñes, J and Perelló, J and Sánchez, A and Moreno, Y and Duch, J}, title = {Resource heterogeneity leads to unjust effort distribution in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0204369}, pmid = {30379845}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Awareness ; Child ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Cooperative Behavior ; Female ; Games, Experimental ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Risk ; *Social Justice ; Unsupervised Machine Learning ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Climate change mitigation is a shared global challenge that involves collective action of a set of individuals with different tendencies to cooperation. However, we lack an understanding of the effect of resource inequality when diverse actors interact together towards a common goal. Here, we report the results of a collective-risk dilemma experiment in which groups of individuals were initially given either equal or unequal endowments. We found that the effort distribution was highly inequitable, with participants with fewer resources contributing significantly more to the public goods than the richer -sometimes twice as much. An unsupervised learning algorithm classified the subjects according to their individual behavior, finding the poorest participants within two "generous clusters" and the richest into a "greedy cluster". Our results suggest that policies would benefit from educating about fairness and reinforcing climate justice actions addressed to vulnerable people instead of focusing on understanding generic or global climate consequences.}, }
@article {pmid30378103, year = {2019}, author = {Clewlow, HL and Takahashi, A and Watanabe, S and Votier, SC and Downie, R and Ratcliffe, N}, title = {Niche partitioning of sympatric penguins by leapfrog foraging appears to be resilient to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {88}, number = {2}, pages = {223-235}, pmid = {30378103}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Breeding ; Climate Change ; *Spheniscidae ; Sympatry ; }, abstract = {Interspecific competition can drive niche partitioning along multidimensional axes, including allochrony. Competitor matching will arise where the phenology of sympatric species with similar ecological requirements responds to climate change at different rates such that allochrony is reduced. Our study quantifies the degree of niche segregation in foraging areas and depths that arises from allochrony in sympatric Adélie and chinstrap penguins and explores its resilience to climate change. Three-dimensional tracking data were sampled during all stages of the breeding season and were used to parameterise a behaviour-based model that quantified spatial overlap of foraging areas under different scenarios of allochrony. The foraging ranges of the two species were similar within breeding stages, but differences in their foraging ranges between stages, combined with the observed allochrony of 28 days, resulted in them leapfrogging each other through the breeding season such that they were exploiting different foraging locations on the same calendar dates. Allochrony reduced spatial overlap in the peripheral utilisation distribution of the two species by 54.0% over the entire breeding season, compared to a scenario where the two species bred synchronously. Analysis of long-term phenology data revealed that both species advanced their laying dates in relation to October air temperatures at the same rate, preserving allochrony and niche partitioning. However, if allochrony is reduced by just a single day, the spatial overlap of the core utilisation distribution increased by an average of 2.1% over the entire breeding season. Niche partitioning between the two species by allochrony appears to be resilient to climate change and so competitor matching cannot be implicated in the observed population declines of the two penguin species across the Western Antarctic Peninsula.}, }
@article {pmid30377877, year = {2018}, author = {Patz, JA}, title = {Altered Disease Risk from Climate Change.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {693-694}, pmid = {30377877}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disease ; Ecology ; Humans ; Public Health ; *Risk Assessment ; }, }
@article {pmid30375880, year = {2019}, author = {Trájer, AJ and Nagy, G and Domokos, E}, title = {Exploration of the heterogeneous effect of climate change on ozone concentration in an urban environment.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {276-289}, doi = {10.1080/09603123.2018.1539703}, pmid = {30375880}, issn = {1369-1619}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humidity ; Hungary ; *Models, Theoretical ; Ozone/*analysis ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Ozone is a significant causative agent of mortality in cities. Urban environments are expressly vulnerable to global warming because of the extensive emission of air pollutants with urban heat island effect enhancing much rapidly the ozone concentration than in the less urbanized regions. This effect previously was not studied in local scale. It was hypothesized that climate change will cause heterogenic increase of ozone concentration in the different parts of the cities. To study this effect, the near-surface ozone concentration of 10 points of a Hungarian city was measured and modeled. At first step, the local correlations between solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and the near surface ozone concentrations at 3 m height were determined, specifying the local ozone-producing conditions. Then, based on the scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th assessment report, the future seasonal near-surface ozone concentrations were modeled. Based on the model, it was determined that climate change will result in a heterogenic increase of near-surface ozone concentration.}, }
@article {pmid30374458, year = {2018}, author = {Ladau, J and Shi, Y and Jing, X and He, JS and Chen, L and Lin, X and Fierer, N and Gilbert, JA and Pollard, KS and Chu, H}, title = {Existing Climate Change Will Lead to Pronounced Shifts in the Diversity of Soil Prokaryotes.}, journal = {mSystems}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {30374458}, issn = {2379-5077}, abstract = {Soil bacteria are key to ecosystem function and maintenance of soil fertility. Leveraging associations of current geographic distributions of bacteria with historic climate, we predict that soil bacterial diversity will increase across the majority (∼75%) of the Tibetan Plateau and northern North America if bacterial communities equilibrate with existing climatic conditions. This prediction is possible because the current distributions of soil bacteria have stronger correlations with climate from ∼50 years ago than with current climate. This lag is likely associated with the time it takes for soil properties to adjust to changes in climate. The predicted changes are location specific and differ across bacterial taxa, including some bacteria that are predicted to have reductions in their distributions. These findings illuminate the widespread potential of climate change to influence belowground diversity and the importance of considering bacterial communities when assessing climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. IMPORTANCE There have been many studies highlighting how plant and animal communities lag behind climate change, causing extinction and diversity debts that will slowly be paid as communities equilibrate. By virtue of their short generation times and dispersal abilities, soil bacteria might be expected to respond to climate change quickly and to be effectively in equilibrium with current climatic conditions. We found strong evidence to the contrary in Tibet and North America. These findings could significantly improve understanding of climate impacts on soil microbial communities.}, }
@article {pmid30373825, year = {2018}, author = {Freeman, BG and Scholer, MN and Ruiz-Gutierrez, V and Fitzpatrick, JW}, title = {Climate change causes upslope shifts and mountaintop extirpations in a tropical bird community.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {47}, pages = {11982-11987}, pmid = {30373825}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animal Migration/physiology ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Forecasting ; Homing Behavior ; Peru ; Population Dynamics/*trends ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Montane species worldwide are shifting upslope in response to recent temperature increases. These upslope shifts are predicted to lead to mountaintop extinctions of species that live only near mountain summits, but empirical examples of populations that have disappeared are sparse. We show that recent warming constitutes an "escalator to extinction" for birds on a remote Peruvian mountain-high-elevation species have declined in both range size and abundance, and several previously common mountaintop residents have disappeared from the local community. Our findings support projections that warming will likely drive widespread extirpations and extinctions of high-elevation taxa in the tropical Andes. Such climate change-driven mountaintop extirpations may be more likely in the tropics, where temperature seems to exert a stronger control on species' range limits than in the temperate zone. In contrast, we show that lowland bird species at our study site are expanding in range size as they shift their upper limits upslope and may thus benefit from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30373158, year = {2018}, author = {Ebi, KL and Berry, P and Hayes, K and Boyer, C and Sellers, S and Enright, PM and Hess, JJ}, title = {Stress Testing the Capacity of Health Systems to Manage Climate Change-Related Shocks and Stresses.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {30373158}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care/*methods ; Government Programs ; Health Systems Plans ; Humans ; *Public Health Practice ; Risk Assessment/methods ; }, abstract = {Vulnerability and adaptation assessments can provide valuable input to foster climate-resilient health systems. However, these assessments often do not explore the potential health risks of climate change far outside the range of recent experience with extreme weather events and other climate-related hazards. Climate and health stress tests are designed to increase the capacity of health systems and related sectors to manage potentially disruptive climate-related shocks and stresses. Stress tests focus on hypothetical scenarios, during which it would be difficult for the health system to maintain its essential function of providing services to protect population health. The stress test explores approaches to effectively manage acute and chronic climate-related events and conditions that could directly impact health systems, and climate-related events in non-health sectors that can indirectly impact health outcomes and/or health system function. We provide detailed methods and guidance for conducting climate and health stress tests, centering on three primary activities: (1) preparing and scoping the stress test; (2) successfully conducting the stress test; and (3) communicating the results to key stakeholders to facilitate policy and programmatic reforms.}, }
@article {pmid30373063, year = {2019}, author = {Parajuli, R and Thoma, G and Matlock, MD}, title = {Environmental sustainability of fruit and vegetable production supply chains in the face of climate change: A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2863-2879}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.019}, pmid = {30373063}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; *Food Supply ; Fruit/*growth &amp; development ; Vegetables/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {This study discusses importance of assessing environmental sustainability of fruits and vegetable (F&amp;V) production sector in future climate change (CC) scenarios. For the current production scenario, life cycle environmental footprints of F&amp;V supply chain are discussed considering the influences of: agro-climates, production systems, raw material inputs, post-harvest managements to the products' yield and quality. Potential risks of CC to the sector are discussed in the context of elevated global temperature and carbon dioxide level, ozone depletion and changes in precipitation patterns. Potential risks due to CC are on the productivity and the quality of F&amp;V products, such as texture, color, maturity and nutrients. Increased risk of failure of the current crop protection strategies, e.g. due to pest infestations and different crop-water and nutrient stresses are among the short and long-term risks. It also discusses potential adaptation and mitigation measures to CC, and therefrom argues on the related environmental consequences in the supply chain. From the LCA studies, it was revealed that environmental impacts of F&amp;V supply chain varied as per agro-ecological characteristics and farming systems, e.g. greenhouse vs open-field, organic vs conventional, and grown in different agro-climatic conditions. The nexus among the climatic stresses, potential adaptation and mitigation measures, hence were in the form of potential changes in the raw material inputs and resource flows depending on the preferred future agro-management strategies and farming practices. Adaptation and other management options, included are, changes in: crop calendar, nutrient and pest management strategies, post-harvest handling and improved preservation of F&amp;V products. These are argued eventually being determining factors leading to different environmental footprints compared to the existing management scenarios. Prospective life cycle environmental evaluation of F&amp;V supply chain considering the relationship among product yield and qualities, CC stresses and potential adaptation and mitigation measures is thus a new thrust and direction.}, }
@article {pmid30370745, year = {2018}, author = {Michelozzi, P and De' Donato, F}, title = {[Climate change and air quality: a "liaison dangereuse"].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {42}, number = {5-6}, pages = {382-383}, doi = {10.19191/EP18.5-6.P382.112}, pmid = {30370745}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis ; *Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Global Burden of Disease ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Internationality ; Italy ; Mongolia/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid30369830, year = {2018}, author = {van Lange, PAM and Rinderu, MI and Bushman, BJ}, title = {CLASH: Climate (change) and cultural evolution of intergroup conflict.}, journal = {Group processes &amp; intergroup relations : GPIR}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {457-471}, pmid = {30369830}, issn = {1368-4302}, abstract = {Aggression and violence levels generally increase as one moves closer to the equator, but why? We developed a new theoretical model, CLimate, Aggression, and Self-control in Humans (CLASH; van Lange, Rinderu, &amp; Bushman, 2017b, 2017c), to understand differences within and between countries in aggression and violence in terms of differences in climate. Colder temperatures, and especially larger degrees of seasonal variation in climate, call for individuals and groups to adopt a slower life history strategy, revealed in a greater focus on the future (vs. present) and a stronger focus on self-control-variables that are known to inhibit aggression and violence. Other variables (e.g., wealth, income inequality, parasite stress) are also linked to both climate differences and to aggression and violence differences. When people think of the consequences of climate change, they rarely think of the impact on aggression and violence levels, but they should. CLASH has broad implications for the effects of climate change on intergroup conflict.}, }
@article {pmid30369627, year = {2018}, author = {Dalla Marta, A and Eitzinger, J and Kersebaum, KC and Todorovic, M and Altobelli, F}, title = {Assessment and monitoring of crop water use and productivity in response to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of agricultural science}, volume = {156}, number = {5}, pages = {575-576}, doi = {10.1017/S002185961800076X}, pmid = {30369627}, issn = {0021-8596}, }
@article {pmid30368853, year = {2019}, author = {Bostrom, A and Hayes, AL and Crosman, KM}, title = {Efficacy, Action, and Support for Reducing Climate Change Risks.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {805-828}, doi = {10.1111/risa.13210}, pmid = {30368853}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {1430781//National Science Foundation/International ; 1463492//University of Washington/International ; //Carnegie Mellon University/International ; T32 HD007543//Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development/International ; //Shanahan Endowment Fellowship/International ; //Center for Studies in Demography &amp; Ecology/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Risk Reduction Behavior ; }, abstract = {A growing body of research demonstrates that believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self-efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts. Despite this potentially critical role of efficacy beliefs, measures and their use vary wildly in climate change risk perception and communication research, making it hard to compare and learn from efficacy studies. To address this problem and advance our understanding of efficacy beliefs, this article makes three contributions. First, we present a theoretically motivated approach to measuring climate change mitigation efficacy, in light of diverse proposed, perceived, and previously researched strategies. Second, we test this in two national survey samples (Amazon's Mechanical Turk N = 405, GfK Knowledge Panel N = 1,820), demonstrating largely coherent beliefs by level of action and discrimination between types of efficacy. Four additive efficacy scales emerge: personal self-efficacy, personal response efficacy, government and collective self-efficacy, and government and collective response efficacy. Third, we employ the resulting efficacy scales in mediation models to test how well efficacy beliefs predict climate change policy support, controlling for specific knowledge, risk perceptions, and ideology, and allowing for mediation by concern. Concern fully mediates the relatively strong effects of perceived risk on policy support, but only partly mediates efficacy beliefs. Stronger government and collective response efficacy beliefs and personal self-efficacy beliefs are both directly and indirectly associated with greater support for reducing the risks of climate change, even after controlling for ideology and causal beliefs about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30368676, year = {2018}, author = {Benmoussa, H and Ben Mimoun, M and Ghrab, M and Luedeling, E}, title = {Climate change threatens central Tunisian nut orchards.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {12}, pages = {2245-2255}, pmid = {30368676}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Nuts ; Pistacia/*physiology ; Prunus dulcis/*physiology ; Seasons ; Tunisia ; }, abstract = {Temperate deciduous trees can only be productive where winters are cold enough to meet their chilling needs. In the Mediterranean region, chill has traditionally been sufficient for many species, but this may change as temperatures increase. We explored the region's present and future suitability for temperate trees by quantifying chill for the Sfax region in central Tunisia, one of the warmest regions where temperate nuts are commercially grown. We assessed climatic risk by calculating historic chill (since 1973) and using a weather generator calibrated with local weather data (1973-2015) to produce 101 years of chill estimates (computed with the Dynamic Model) and 3 past and 72 future scenarios (for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, using two representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For almonds and pistachios, we compared available chill during the chilling period with the species' estimated chilling requirements, and we computed the date by which sufficient chill was expected to have accumulated. Our findings indicated severe chill losses for all future scenarios. For all species, the current chill period is no longer expected to be sufficient for meeting chilling requirements in the future. Chill needs may still be fulfilled later in the year, especially for low-chill almonds, but this would result in delayed phenology, with possible adverse effects on productivity. Temperate nut production is thus unlikely to remain viable at this site, highlighting an urgent need to identify locally appropriate adaptation options. This challenge is likely shared by other warm production regions of temperate fruits and nuts around the world.}, }
@article {pmid30368152, year = {2019}, author = {Rakib, MA and Sasaki, J and Pal, S and Newaz, MA and Bodrud-Doza, M and Bhuiyan, MAH}, title = {An investigation of coastal vulnerability and internal consistency of local perceptions under climate change risk in the southwest part of Bangladesh.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {231}, number = {}, pages = {419-428}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.054}, pmid = {30368152}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climatic threats force disruption on community lifestyles by impairing social factors, the fundamental components of ensuring social sustainability. This study investigates the situational factors affecting the consequences on coastal livelihoods, and social activities; it also considers the effectiveness of traditional knowledge in reducing possible risks. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were employed, including questionnaire survey for identifying the local perception of climatic impacts alongside the impacts on daily activities. Interviews, field observations, and multivariate analyses were performed to explain the vulnerability status in coastal communities. Results show that most livelihood sectors were severely affected by the long-term and repeated actions of climatic hazards, such as cyclones, associated with a number of unavoidable risks making people susceptible to damages in social wellbeing. In addition, saltwater intrusion damages drinking water supply and crop farming, which can cause diseases among coastal communities, but very few attempts have been made to provide alternative sources of drinking water at a household level. Moreover, principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) revealed significant interfaces between local perceptions and the socio-and agro-environmental factors changing the overall status of regional hazards. Thus, the situation exhibits coastal hazards, social vulnerability, and social crisis. Local people use their traditional knowledge to cope with various levels of crisis under vulnerable conditions, but sometimes doing so exceeds their capacity owing to the unwanted changes in climatic variables and knowledge gaps or uncertainties. Challenges on the basis of the problematic points should be noted, however, it would be more significant to achieve social sustainability under adverse climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30366320, year = {2019}, author = {Boonwichai, S and Shrestha, S and Babel, MS and Weesakul, S and Datta, A}, title = {Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies on rainfed rice production in Songkhram River Basin, Thailand.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {652}, number = {}, pages = {189-201}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.201}, pmid = {30366320}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Oryza ; Rivers ; Temperature ; Thailand ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This study investigates rice yield and evaluates potential adaptation measures on field management practices for rainfed rice production under climate change scenarios in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand. The top-down and bottom-up approaches are combined to evaluate the future climate conditions in the Songkhram River Basin and identify adaptation strategies respectively. An ensemble of four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) bias-corrected using the Quantile Mapping technique was used to project the future climate under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The DSSAT crop simulation model was used to simulate rice yield and evaluate the impacts of climate change on rice yield, as well as the feasibility of four adaptation options, which were solicited from four hundred farmers through questionnaire surveys in the basin. The strategies include (i) change in planting date, (ii) change in fertiliser application date, (iii) change in fertiliser application dose, and (iv) supplying irrigation water. Based on the model results, future maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to increase by 2.8 and 3.2 °C respectively under RCP8.5 scenario for 2080s. Although annual rainfall may be unchanged, rainfall patterns will shift earlier in future. Evaluation of adaptation strategies suggest that supplying irrigation water under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively are the best strategies to increase rice yield under climate change scenarios. Change in fertiliser application date and change in planting date can increase the future rice yield by 12 and 8%, respectively under RCP4.5 scenario for 2080s. Adjusting the fertiliser application dose may however reduce future rice yield. Although supplying irrigation water can aid the production of rainfed rice, other concerns such as the source of water are involved. The feasibility of adaptation actions would depend largely on available resources and mindset of farmers. Further work is warranted in exploring a combination of adaptation strategies and management plans to combat the adverse impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30364587, year = {2018}, author = {Rahut, DB and Ali, A}, title = {Impact of climate-change risk-coping strategies on livestock productivity and household welfare: empirical evidence from Pakistan.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {e00797}, pmid = {30364587}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Using the primary datasets collected from 700 livestock farmers from all four major provinces of Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit Baltistan, this paper analyzes the impact of climate-change risk coping strategies on household welfare. A Poisson regression model was used to estimate the determinants of the livestock ownership and multivariate probit model to assess the determinants of the measures taken to manage the climatic-risk challenge for livestock. A propensity score matching approach (PSM) was used to assess the impact of the adopted climate-risk management strategies on livestock farmers. Findings indicated that in Pakistan livestock farmers generally adopt four main types of strategies to cope with climate risk: livestock insurance, selling of livestock, allocation of more land area for fodder and migration. The results show that age, education, wealth, access to extension services, and membership in NGOs, influence the livestock farmers' choice of climate-risk-coping mechanisms. The livestock farmers who adopted risk-coping mechanisms generally fared better. Increasing the land area allocated to fodder seems to increase production of milk and butter, resulting in higher income and lower poverty levels. Those who bought insurance had more milk production and a lower poverty level, while those who sold livestock to cope with climate risk decreased production but increased household income and lowered poverty levels. Migration seems to have a negative impact on production and income. Impact assessments confirm that purchasing livestock insurance and increasing fodder areas are more effective compared to the selling of livestock and migration. Agricultural climate policy should focus on creating awareness as well as increasing access to extension services among livestock farmers on climate risk and risk-coping strategies to mitigate the impact on rural livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid30361350, year = {2018}, author = {Pennisi, E}, title = {Restoring lost grazers could help blunt climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {362}, number = {6413}, pages = {388}, doi = {10.1126/science.362.6413.388}, pmid = {30361350}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Forests ; Grassland ; *Herbivory ; Perissodactyla ; Reindeer ; Tundra ; Wildfires/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid30360282, year = {2019}, author = {Potapowicz, J and Szumińska, D and Szopińska, M and Polkowska, &#x17b;}, title = {The influence of global climate change on the environmental fate of anthropogenic pollution released from the permafrost: Part I. Case study of Antarctica.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {1534-1548}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.168}, pmid = {30360282}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*analysis ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Permafrost ; }, abstract = {This article presents a review of information related to the influence of potential permafrost degradation on the environmental fate of chemical species which are released and stored, classified as potential influence in future Antarctic environment. Considering all data regarding climate change prediction, this topic may prove important issue for the future state of the Antarctic environment. A detailed survey on soil and permafrost data permitted the assumption that this medium may constitute a sink for organic and inorganic pollution (especially for persistent organic pollution, POPs, and heavy metals). The analysis of the environmental fate and potential consequences of the presence of pollutants for the existence of the Antarctic fauna leads to a conclusion that they may cause numerous negative effects (e.g. Endocrine disruptions, DNA damage, cancerogenicity). In the case of temperature increase and enhanced remobilisation processes, this effect may be even stronger, and may disturb natural balance in the environment. Therefore, regular research on the environmental fate of pollution is required, especially in terms of processes of remobilisation from the permafrost reserves.}, }
@article {pmid30359427, year = {2018}, author = {Di Giusto, B and Lavallee, JP and Yu, TY}, title = {Towards an East Asian model of climate change awareness: A questionnaire study among university students in Taiwan.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0206298}, pmid = {30359427}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Awareness ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Asia, Eastern ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Students ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Taiwan ; Universities ; }, abstract = {East Asia emits more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than any other region, yet little is known about attitudes towards climate change in this region. A cross-sectional survey investigating climate change knowledge, concern and behavior change was administered to 1118 university students at nine universities across Taiwan in June 2016. Knowledge was assessed with a 15-item quiz while concern and behavioral change were self-reported on 5-point Likert scales. The relationship of these three variables with various socio-demographic variables was investigated through Kruskal-Wallis tests and ordinal logistic regressions. Knowledge was homogeneous by region but differed sharply by socioeconomic position. Concern appears high by international standards, with 65% reporting being "somewhat concerned" and 28% being "very concerned," while climate change denial was negligible. Students expressing greater concern were more likely to be from eastern and southern Taiwan, regions more vulnerable to extreme weather events. However, these high concern levels did not translate into action, as only 38% of respondents reported "some" and 11% reported "very much" behavioral change in response to climate change. Higher levels of behavioral change were reported by students expressing greater concern and students with lower levels of climate change knowledge. In contrast with studies of Western societies, our findings suggest an East Asian model in which the conflict between economic growth and the environment is playing out in different ways, such that the crucial need is for policy leadership and not more education.}, }
@article {pmid30358002, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, L and Huang, JG and Ma, Q and Hänninen, H and Tremblay, F and Bergeron, Y}, title = {Long-term changes in the impacts of global warming on leaf phenology of four temperate tree species.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {997-1004}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14496}, pmid = {30358002}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Europe ; *Global Warming ; Plant Leaves/*physiology ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Contrary to the generally advanced spring leaf unfolding under global warming, the effects of the climate warming on autumn leaf senescence are highly variable with advanced, delayed, and unchanged patterns being all reported. Using one million records of leaf phenology from four dominant temperate species in Europe, we investigated the temperature sensitivities of spring leaf unfolding and autumn leaf senescence (ST , advanced or delayed days per degree Celsius). The ST of spring phenology in all of the four examined species showed an increase and decrease during 1951-1980 and 1981-2013, respectively. The decrease in the ST during 1981-2013 appears to be caused by reduced accumulation of chilling units. As with spring phenology, the ST of leaf senescence of early successional and exotic species started to decline since 1980. In contrast, for late successional species, the ST of autumn senescence showed an increase for the entire study period from 1951 to 2013. Moreover, the impacts of rising temperature associated with global warming on spring leaf unfolding were stronger than those on autumn leaf senescence. The timing of leaf senescence was positively correlated with the timing of leaf unfolding during 1951-1980. However, as climate warming continued, the differences in the responses between spring and autumn phenology gradually increased, so that the correlation was no more significant during 1981-2013. Our results further suggest that since 2000, due to the decreased temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding the length of the growing season has not increased any more. These finding needs to be addressed in vegetation models used for assessing the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30357847, year = {2019}, author = {Carvalho, LC and Amâncio, S}, title = {Cutting the Gordian Knot of abiotic stress in grapevine: From the test tube to climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {165}, number = {2}, pages = {330-342}, pmid = {30357847}, issn = {1399-3054}, support = {SFRH/BPD/109428/2015//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; UID/AGR/04129/2013//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Genotype ; Stress, Physiological/genetics/*physiology ; Transcriptome/genetics ; Vitis/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In Mediterranean climate areas, the available scenarios for climate change suggest an increase in the frequency of heat waves and severe drought in summer. Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is a traditional Mediterranean species and is the most valuable fruit crop in the world. Currently, viticulture must adjust to impending climate changes that are already pushing vine-growers toward the use of irrigation, with the concomitant losses in wine quality, and researchers to study tolerance to stress in existing genotypes. The viticulture and winemaking worlds are in demand to understand the physiological potential of the available genotypes to respond to climate changes. In this review, we will focus on the cross-talk between common abiotic stresses that currently affect grapevine productivity and that are prone to affect it deeper in the future. We will discuss results obtained under three experimental stress conditions and that call for specific responses: (1) acclimatization of in vitro plantlets, (2) stress combinations in controlled conditions for research purposes, (3) extreme events in the field that, driven by climate changes, are pushing Mediterranean species to the limit. The different levels of tolerance to stress put in evidence by the plasticity of phenotypic and genotypic response mechanisms, will be addressed. This information is relevant to understand varietal adaptation to impending climate changes and to assist vine growers in choosing genotypes and viticulture practices.}, }
@article {pmid30356932, year = {2018}, author = {Ashraf, U and Chaudhry, MN and Ahmad, SR and Ashraf, I and Arslan, M and Noor, H and Jabbar, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change on Capparis spinosa L. based on ecological niche modeling.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e5792}, pmid = {30356932}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Recent changes in climate are transforming the situation of life on Earth, including impacting the conservation status of many plant and animal species. This study aims to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on a medicinal plant that is known to be heat-tolerant, Capparis spinosa L. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate current and future potential distributions for the species, considering two emissions scenarios and five climate models for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The results in terms of areal coverage at different suitability levels in the future were closely similar to its present-day distribution; indeed, only minor differences existed in highly suitable area, with increases of only 0.2-0.3% in suitable area for 2050 and 2070 under representative concentration pathway 4.5. Given that climate-mediated range shifts in the species are expected to be minor, conservation attention to this species can focus on minimizing local effects of anthropogenic activity.}, }
@article {pmid30356292, year = {2018}, author = {Barros, C and Thuiller, W and Münkemüller, T}, title = {Drought effects on the stability of forest-grassland ecotones under gradual climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0206138}, pmid = {30356292}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {281422/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Forests ; France ; *Grassland ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Trees/classification/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Plant communities in forest-grassland ecotones of the European Alps are already suffering from gradual climate change and will likely be exposed to more frequent and intense drought periods in the future. Yet, how gradual climate change and extreme drought will affect the stability of these plant communities is largely unknown. Here, we investigated how drought modulates the effects of gradual climate change on the long-term structural stability of these ecotone communities using a multidimensional approach. Using a spatially explicit landscape vegetation model, we simulated three drought scenarios, on top of gradual changes of climate variables, and their impacts on the dynamics of 24 plant functional groups, distinguishing between forests and grasslands, as well as different land uses. We then used n-dimensional hypervolumes to define community states under the different drought scenarios, and compared them to initial conditions to assess changes in community structural stability. In general, added drought effects did not counteract the long-term consequences of gradual climate changes, although they resulted in quantitatively different effects. Importantly, drought and climate change had non-negligible consequences for taxonomic and functional structure that differed between communities and land-use regimes. For instance, forest taxonomic structure was more overall more stable than grassland's, despite the observed functional shifts towards more warm-adapted species compositions. Conversely, unmanaged grasslands were the least stable, suffering the loss of characteristic alpine species. Also, while frequent and severe drought regimes caused forests to become more variable in time, they had the opposite effect on grasslands. Our results agree with observations of drought- and climate-driven changes in mountain communities of the Alps, and we discuss their relevance for ecosystem management. Importantly, we demonstrate the utility of this multidimensional approach to study community stability for analysing cross-community and cross-disturbance responses to global change.}, }
@article {pmid30355969, year = {2018}, author = {Zeuli, K and Nijhuis, A and Macfarlane, R and Ridsdale, T}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on the Food System in Toronto.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {30355969}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Industry ; Ontario ; Risk Assessment ; Seasons ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {As part of its Climate Change and Health Strategy, in 2017, Toronto Public Health engaged stakeholders from across the food system to complete a high-level vulnerability assessment of the impact of climate change on the food system in Toronto. Using the Ontario Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Guidelines, the City of Toronto's High-Level Risk Assessment Tool, and a strategic framework developed by the Initiative for a Competitive Inner City, Toronto Public Health identified the most significant extreme weather event risks to food processing, distribution and access in Toronto. Risks associated with three extreme weather events that are the most likely to occur in Toronto due to climate change were analyzed: significant rain and flooding, an extended heat wave, and a major winter ice storm. The analysis finds that while extreme weather events could potentially disrupt Toronto's food supply, the current risk of an extended, widespread food supply disruption is relatively low. However, the findings highlight that a concerted effort across the food system, including electrical and fuel providers, is needed to address other key vulnerabilities that could impact food access, especially for vulnerable populations. Interruptions to electricity will have food access and food safety impacts, while interruptions to the transportation network and fuel will have food distribution and access impacts. Actions to mitigate these risks could include addressing food access vulnerabilities through ongoing city-wide strategies and integrating food access into the City's emergency response planning. The next steps will include engaging with multiple partners across the city to understand and strengthen the "last mile" of food distribution and develop community food resilience action plans for vulnerable neighbourhoods.}, }
@article {pmid30355678, year = {2018}, author = {Taillardat, P and Friess, DA and Lupascu, M}, title = {Mangrove blue carbon strategies for climate change mitigation are most effective at the national scale.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {30355678}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Carbon fixed by vegetated coastal ecosystems (blue carbon) can mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions, though its effectiveness differs with the spatial scale of interest. A literature review compiling carbon sequestration rates within key ecosystems confirms that blue carbon ecosystems are the most efficient natural carbon sinks at the plot scale, though some overlooked biogeochemical processes may lead to overestimation. Moreover, the limited spatial extent of coastal habitats minimizes their potential at the global scale, only buffering 0.42% of the global fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2014. Still, blue carbon plays a role for countries with moderate fossil fuel emissions and extensive coastlines. In 2014, mangroves mitigated greater than 1% of national fossil fuel emissions for countries such as Bangladesh, Colombia and Nigeria. Considering that the Paris Agreement is based on nationally determined contributions, we propose that mangrove blue carbon may contribute to climate change mitigation at this scale in some instances alongside other blue carbon ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30353483, year = {2019}, author = {Sharma, R and Hooyberghs, H and Lauwaet, D and De Ridder, K}, title = {Urban Heat Island and Future Climate Change-Implications for Delhi's Heat.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {96}, number = {2}, pages = {235-251}, pmid = {30353483}, issn = {1468-2869}, mesh = {Cities/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Humans ; India ; Rural Population/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {UrbClim, the urban climate model, is used for short- and long-term projections of climate for Delhi. The projections are performed for RCP8.5 using an ensemble of 11 GCM model outputs. Various heat stress indices were employed to understand the role of urban heat island (UHI) in influencing the present and future urban climate of the city. UHI intensity based on 5% warmest nights (TNp95) was 4.1 °C and exhibits negligible change over time. However, the impact of UHI on other heat stress indices is very strong. Combined hot days and tropical nights (CHT) that influenced 58-70% of the reference time frame are expected to rise to 68-77% in near-future and to 91-97% in far-future time periods. For reference time period, urban areas experience 2.3 more number of heat wave days (NHWD) than rural areas per summer season. This difference increases to 7.1 in short-term and 13.8 in long-term projections. Similar to this trend, frequency of heat waves (FHW) for urban areas is also expected to increase from 0.8 each summer season in reference time frame to 2.1 and 5.1 in short- and long-term projections. The urban-rural difference for duration of heat waves (DHW) appears to increase from 1.7 days in past to 2.3 and 2.2 days in future, illustrating that DHW for cities will be higher than non-urban areas at least by 2 days. The intensity of heat wave (IHW) for urban land uses increases from 40 °C in reference time frame to 45 °C in short-term projection to 49 °C in far future. These values for non-urban land use were 33 °C during the baseline time period and are expected to increase to 42 °C and 46 °C in near- and far-future time frames. The results clearly indicate the contribution of UHI effects in intensifying the impacts of extreme heat and heat stress in the city.}, }
@article {pmid30350264, year = {2018}, author = {Jaakkola, JJK and Juntunen, S and Näkkäläjärvi, K}, title = {The Holistic Effects of Climate Change on the Culture, Well-Being, and Health of the Saami, the Only Indigenous People in the European Union.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {401-417}, pmid = {30350264}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {*Attitude to Health ; *Climate Change ; *Cultural Characteristics ; European Union ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Mental Health ; *Population Groups ; Seasons ; Social Environment ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: (1) To develop a framework for understanding the holistic effects of climate change on the Saami people; (2) to summarize the scientific evidence about the primary, secondary, and tertiary effects of climate change on Saami culture and Sápmi region; and (3) to identify gaps in the knowledge of the effects of climate change on health and well-being of the Saami.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: The Saami health is on average similar, or slightly better compared to the health of other populations in the same area. Warming climate has already influenced Saami reindeer culture. Mental health and suicide risk partly linked to changing physical and social environments are major concerns. The lifestyle, diet, and morbidity of the Saami are changing to resemble the majority populations posing threats for the health of the Saami and making them more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Climate change is a threat for the cultural way of life of Saami. Possibilities for Saami to adapt to climate change are limited.}, }
@article {pmid30349658, year = {2018}, author = {Musarandega, H and Chingombe, W and Pillay, R}, title = {Harnessing local traditional authorities as a potential strategy to combat the vagaries of climate change in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {651}, pmid = {30349658}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {While the devastating vagaries of climate change are ravaging communities the world over, especially in Africa, and Zimbabwe in particular, the role of traditional authorities is being overlooked. This paper argues for a relentless push towards the unimpeded involvement of local traditional authorities (LTAs) in the mobilisation of rural communities to adopt appropriate climate change adaptation practices in Zimbabwe. Given its complexity and uniqueness, external intervention through government and non-governmental agents alone can hardly foster climate change adaptation particularly at local levels within communities. Traditional leaders, who have for a long time been useful in the governance of people in various rural communities, can play a supportive role in climate change adaptation. Traditional leaders do not only serve as governance authorities but also know the traditional strategies of combating the negative effects of climate change. Despite the pressure from political interference and the advent of western technological advancement, a lot could still be done to buttress the authority and respect vested in chiefs, headsmen and village heads in the country. LTAs have the power to manage grassroots communities; hence they can be utilised as drivers in the use of traditional climate change adaptation strategies. The paper concludes that political interference is one challenge faced by abusing traditional leadership as a means to gain political mileage. The paper recommends for extended capacity building on the part of traditional leaders to improve their knowledge base. This will enable them to appreciate the integration of indigenous and modern climate change adaptation strategies. It further recommends the revitalisation of the traditional council (Dare raMambo) to deal with environmental offenses with the scope of assisting government efforts to ensure sound ecological practices within communities.}, }
@article {pmid30348889, year = {2018}, author = {Kjeldahl, EM and Hendricks, VF}, title = {The sense of social influence: pluralistic ignorance in climate change: Social factors play key roles in human behavior. Individuals tend to underestimate how much others worry about climate change. This may inhibit them from taking collective climate action.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {19}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {30348889}, issn = {1469-3178}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Communications Media ; *Cultural Diversity ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; *Social Behavior ; }, abstract = {How pluralistic ignorance can inhibit us from taking collective climate action and may affect similar problems such as public resistance to vaccination programs. [Image: see text]}, }
@article {pmid30348873, year = {2018}, author = {Jarvie, S and Svenning, JC}, title = {Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {1761}, pages = {}, pmid = {30348873}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.}, }
@article {pmid30348869, year = {2018}, author = {Falcón, W and Hansen, DM}, title = {Island rewilding with giant tortoises in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {1761}, pages = {}, pmid = {30348869}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Islands ; Seychelles ; Turtles ; }, abstract = {Replacing recently extinct endemic giant tortoises with extant, functional analogues provide the perhaps best examples of island rewilding to date. Yet, an efficient future application of this conservation action is challenging in an era of climate change. We here present and discuss a conceptual framework that can serve as a roadmap for the study and application of tortoise rewilding in an uncertain future. We focus on three main ecological functions mediated by giant tortoises, namely herbivory, seed dispersal and nutrient cycling, and discuss how climate change is likely to impact these. We then propose and discuss mitigation strategies such as artificial constructed shade sites and water holes that can help drive and maintain the ecosystem functions provided by the tortoises on a landscape scale. The application of the framework and the mitigation strategies are illustrated with examples from both wild and rewilded populations of the Aldabra giant tortoise, Aldabrachelys gigantea, in the Western Indian Ocean.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.}, }
@article {pmid30348867, year = {2018}, author = {Cromsigt, JPGM and Te Beest, M and Kerley, GIH and Landman, M and le Roux, E and Smith, FA}, title = {Trophic rewilding as a climate change mitigation strategy?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {1761}, pages = {}, pmid = {30348867}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; *Herbivory ; Mammals/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The loss of megafauna at the terminal Pleistocene has been linked to a wide range of Earth-system-level changes, such as altered greenhouse gas budgets, fire regimes and biome-level vegetation changes. Given these influences and feedbacks, might part of the solution for mitigating anthropogenic climate change lie in the restoration of extant megafauna to ecosystems? Here, we explore the potential role of trophic rewilding on Earth's climate system. We first provide a novel synthesis of the various ways that megafauna interact with the major drivers of anthropogenic climate change, including greenhouse gas storage and emission, aerosols and albedo. We then explore the role of rewilding as a mitigation tool at two scales: (i) current and near-future opportunities for national or regional climate change mitigation portfolios, and (ii) more radical opportunities at the global scale. Finally, we identify major knowledge gaps that complicate the complete characterization of rewilding as a climate change mitigation strategy. Our perspective is urgent since we are losing the Earth's last remaining megafauna, and with it a potential option to address climate change.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.}, }
@article {pmid30348756, year = {2018}, author = {Hopping, KA and Chignell, SM and Lambin, EF}, title = {The demise of caterpillar fungus in the Himalayan region due to climate change and overharvesting.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {45}, pages = {11489-11494}, pmid = {30348756}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Hypocreales/*physiology ; Medicine, Tibetan Traditional/methods ; *Models, Statistical ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Demand for traditional medicine ingredients is causing species declines globally. Due to this trade, Himalayan caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) has become one of the world's most valuable biological commodities, providing a crucial source of income for hundreds of thousands of collectors. However, the resulting harvesting boom has generated widespread concern over the sustainability of its collection. We investigate whether caterpillar fungus production is decreasing-and if so, why-across its entire range. To overcome the limitations of sparse quantitative data, we use a multiple evidence base approach that makes use of complementarities between local knowledge and ecological modeling. We find that, according to collectors across four countries, caterpillar fungus production has decreased due to habitat degradation, climate change, and especially overexploitation. Our statistical models corroborate that climate change is contributing to this decline. They indicate that caterpillar fungus is more productive under colder conditions, growing in close proximity to areas likely to have permafrost. With significant warming already underway throughout much of its range, we conclude that caterpillar fungus populations have been negatively affected by a combination of overexploitation and climate change. Our results underscore that harvesting is not the sole threat to economically valuable species, and that a collapse of the caterpillar fungus system under ongoing warming and high collection pressure would have serious implications throughout the Himalayan region.}, }
@article {pmid30348655, year = {2018}, author = {Law, A and Saunders, P and Middleton, J and McCoy, D}, title = {Global warming must stay below 1.5°C.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {k4410}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.k4410}, pmid = {30348655}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid30348474, year = {2018}, author = {Vafeiadou, AM and Bretaña, BLP and Van Colen, C and Dos Santos, GAP and Moens, T}, title = {Global warming-induced temperature effects to intertidal tropical and temperate meiobenthic communities.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {142}, number = {}, pages = {163-177}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.10.005}, pmid = {30348474}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Global Warming ; Nematoda/*physiology ; Population Density ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global climate change and the related temperature rise strongly impact marine life and have long been in the center of scientific attention. This experimental work investigates thermal-stress effects on intertidal meiofauna from tropical and temperate coasts, focusing on community responses. Natural communities were exposed for a month to ambient, elevated constant temperatures and diurnal fluctuating temperature regimes with elevated peak maxima, to mimic realistic future climate conditions. Abundance, biodiversity, community composition and functional diversity were assessed. Differential responses between a tropical and a temperate community were revealed. The tropical nematode assemblage was more tolerant to the elevated constant than to the fluctuating temperature regime, whereas the temperate assemblage was equally affected by both. Shifts in dominance of temperature-tolerant species in elevated constant and fluctuating temperature treatments (due to temperature variations) were observed and explained by a combination of differential tolerances and shifts in species interactions. Overall, global warming-induced temperature was found to alter species dynamics within meiobenthic communities, which may have further implications for the ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid30347771, year = {2018}, author = {Mpandeli, S and Naidoo, D and Mabhaudhi, T and Nhemachena, C and Nhamo, L and Liphadzi, S and Hlahla, S and Modi, AT}, title = {Climate Change Adaptation through the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Southern Africa.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {30347771}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Africa, Southern ; Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a complex and cross-cutting problem that needs an integrated and transformative systems approach to respond to the challenge. Current sectoral approaches to climate change adaptation initiatives often create imbalances and retard sustainable development. Regional and international literature on climate change adaptation opportunities and challenges applicable to southern Africa from a water-energy-food (WEF) nexus perspective was reviewed. Specifically, this review highlights climate change impacts on water, energy, and food resources in southern Africa, while exploring mitigation and adaptation opportunities. The review further recommends strategies to develop cross-sectoral sustainable measures aimed at building resilient communities. Regional WEF nexus related institutions and legal frameworks were also reviewed to relate the WEF nexus to policy. Southern Africa is witnessing an increased frequency and intensity in climate change-associated extreme weather events, causing water, food, and energy insecurity. A projected reduction of 20% in annual rainfall by 2080 in southern Africa will only increase the regional socio-economic challenges. This is exacerbating regional resource scarcities and vulnerabilities. It will also have direct and indirect impacts on nutrition, human well-being, and health. Reduced agricultural production, lack of access to clean water, sanitation, and clean, sustainable energy are the major areas of concern. The region is already experiencing an upsurge of vector borne diseases (malaria and dengue fever), and water and food-borne diseases (cholera and diarrhoea). What is clear is that climate change impacts are cross-sectoral and multidimensional, and therefore require cross-sectoral mitigation and adaptation approaches. In this regard, a well-coordinated and integrated WEF nexus approach offers opportunities to build resilient systems, harmonise interventions, and mitigate trade-offs and hence improve sustainability. This would be achieved through greater resource mobilisation and coordination, policy convergence across sectors, and targeting nexus points in the landscape. The WEF nexus approach has potential to increase the resilience of marginalised communities in southern Africa by contributing towards attaining the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, and 13).}, }
@article {pmid30346952, year = {2018}, author = {Lord, JS and Hargrove, JW and Torr, SJ and Vale, GA}, title = {Climate change and African trypanosomiasis vector populations in Zimbabwe's Zambezi Valley: A mathematical modelling study.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {e1002675}, pmid = {30346952}, issn = {1549-1676}, support = {BB/L019035/1//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/P005888/1//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*growth &amp; development ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; *Trypanosomiasis, African/epidemiology ; Tsetse Flies/*growth &amp; development ; Zimbabwe ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Quantifying the effects of climate change on the entomological and epidemiological components of vector-borne diseases is an essential part of climate change research, but evidence for such effects remains scant, and predictions rely largely on extrapolation of statistical correlations. We aimed to develop a mechanistic model to test whether recent increases in temperature in the Mana Pools National Park of the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe could account for the simultaneous decline of tsetse flies, the vectors of human and animal trypanosomiasis.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: The model we developed incorporates the effects of temperature on mortality, larviposition, and emergence rates and is fitted to a 27-year time series of tsetse caught from cattle. These catches declined from an average of c. 50 flies per animal per afternoon in 1990 to c. 0.1 in 2017. Since 1975, mean daily temperatures have risen by c. 0.9&#xb0;C and temperatures in the hottest month of November by c. 2&#xb0;C. Although our model provided a good fit to the data, it cannot predict whether or when extinction will occur.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The model suggests that the increase in temperature may explain the observed collapse in tsetse abundance and provides a first step in linking temperature to trypanosomiasis risk. If the effect at Mana Pools extends across the whole of the Zambezi Valley, then transmission of trypanosomes is likely to have been greatly reduced in this warm low-lying region. Conversely, rising temperatures may have made some higher, cooler, parts of Zimbabwe more suitable for tsetse and led to the emergence of new disease foci.}, }
@article {pmid30345359, year = {2018}, author = {Zou, CZ and Goldberg, MD and Hao, X}, title = {New generation of U.S. satellite microwave sounder achieves high radiometric stability performance for reliable climate change detection.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {10}, pages = {eaau0049}, pmid = {30345359}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Observations from the satellite microwave sounders play a vital role in measuring the long-term temperature trends for climate change monitoring. Changes in diurnal sampling over time and calibration drift have been the main sources of uncertainties in the satellite-measured temperature trends. We examine observations from the first of a series of U.S. new generation of microwave sounder, the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which has been flying onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/NASA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) environmental satellite since late 2011. The SNPP satellite has a stable afternoon orbit that has close to the same local observation time as NASA's Aqua satellite that has been carrying the heritage microwave sounder, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A), from 2002 until the present. The similar overpass timing naturally removes most of their diurnal differences. In addition, direct comparison of temperature anomalies between the two instruments shows little or no relative calibration drift for most channels. Our results suggest that both SNPP/ATMS and Aqua/AMSU-A instruments have achieved absolute stability in the measured atmospheric temperatures within 0.04 K per decade. This uncertainty is small enough to allow reliable detection of the temperature climate trends and help to resolve debate on relevant issues. We also analyze AMSU-A observations onboard the European MetOp-A satellite that has a stable morning orbit 8 hours apart from the SNPP overpass time. Their comparison reveals large asymmetric trends between day and night in the lower- and mid-tropospheric temperatures over land. This information could help to improve climate data records for temperature trend detection with improved accuracy. The SNPP satellite will be followed by four NOAA operational Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites, providing accurate and stable measurement for decades to come. The primary mission of JPSS is for weather forecasting. Now, with the added feature of stable orbits, JPSS observations can also be used to monitor changes in climate with much lower uncertainty than the previous generation of NOAA operational satellites.}, }
@article {pmid30345319, year = {2018}, author = {Lefohn, AS and Malley, CS and Smith, L and Wells, B and Hazucha, M and Simon, H and Naik, V and Mills, G and Schultz, MG and Paoletti, E and De Marco, A and Xu, X and Zhang, L and Wang, T and Neufeld, HS and Musselman, RC and Tarasick, D and Brauer, M and Feng, Z and Tang, H and Kobayashi, K and Sicard, P and Solberg, S and Gerosa, G}, title = {Tropospheric ozone assessment report: Global ozone metrics for climate change, human health, and crop/ecosystem research.}, journal = {Elementa (Washington, D.C.)}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {1}, pmid = {30345319}, issn = {2325-1026}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of ozone on human health, vegetation, and climate requires appropriate metrics. A key component of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is the consistent calculation of these metrics at thousands of monitoring sites globally. Investigating temporal trends in these metrics required that the same statistical methods be applied across these ozone monitoring sites. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (for significant trends) and the Theil-Sen estimator (for estimating the magnitude of trend) were selected to provide robust methods across all sites. This paper provides the scientific underpinnings necessary to better understand the implications of and rationale for selecting a specific TOAR metric for assessing spatial and temporal variation in ozone for a particular impact. The rationale and underlying research evidence that influence the derivation of specific metrics are given. The form of 25 metrics (4 for model-measurement comparison, 5 for characterization of ozone in the free troposphere, 11 for human health impacts, and 5 for vegetation impacts) are described. Finally, this study categorizes health and vegetation exposure metrics based on the extent to which they are determined only by the highest hourly ozone levels, or by a wider range of values. The magnitude of the metrics is influenced by both the distribution of hourly average ozone concentrations at a site location, and the extent to which a particular metric is determined by relatively low, moderate, and high hourly ozone levels. Hence, for the same ozone time series, changes in the distribution of ozone concentrations can result in different changes in the magnitude and direction of trends for different metrics. Thus, dissimilar conclusions about the effect of changes in the drivers of ozone variability (e.g., precursor emissions) on health and vegetation exposure can result from the selection of different metrics.}, }
@article {pmid30344117, year = {2018}, author = {Mao, Y and Economo, EP and Satoh, N}, title = {The Roles of Introgression and Climate Change in the Rise to Dominance of Acropora Corals.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {28}, number = {21}, pages = {3373-3382.e5}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2018.08.061}, pmid = {30344117}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/genetics/*physiology ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; *Gene Flow ; Life History Traits ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {Reef-building corals provide the structural basis for one of Earth's most spectacular and diverse-but increasingly threatened-ecosystems. Modern Indo-Pacific reefs are dominated by species of the staghorn coral genus Acropora, but the evolutionary and ecological factors associated with their diversification and rise to dominance are unclear. Recent work on evolutionary radiations has demonstrated the importance of introgression and ecological opportunity in promoting diversification and ecological success. Here, we analyze the genomes of five staghorn coral species to examine the roles of introgression and ecological opportunity in the rise to dominance of Acropora. We found evidence for a history marked by a major introgression event as well as recurrent gene flow across species. In addition, we found that genes with topologies mismatching the species tree are evolving faster, which is suggestive of a role for introgression in spreading adaptive genetic variation. Demographic analysis showed that Acropora lineages profited from climate-driven mass extinctions in the Plio-Pleistocene, indicating that Acropora exploited ecological opportunity opened by a new climatic regime favoring species that could cope with rapid sea-level changes. Collectively, the genomes of reef-building corals have recorded an evolutionary history shaped by introgression and climate change, suggesting that Acropora-among most vulnerable corals to stressors-may be critical for understanding how reefs track the impending rapid sea-level changes of the Anthropocene.}, }
@article {pmid30342323, year = {2019}, author = {Liao, W and Yang, L and Zhong, S and Hess, JJ and Wang, Q and Bao, J and Huang, C}, title = {Preparing the next generation of health professionals to tackle climate change: Are China's medical students ready?.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {168}, number = {}, pages = {270-277}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.10.006}, pmid = {30342323}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Students, Medical ; Universities ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Medical students will lead the health sector responses and adaptation efforts in the near future, yet little is known in China about their knowledge, perceptions and preparedness to meet these challenges.<br><br>METHODS: A nationwide study was conducted at five medical universities across different regions of China using a two-stage stratified cluster sampling design. A self-administered questionnaire was applied to collect the information including perception, preparedness and educational needs in response to climate change. The data were first analyzed descriptively, then chi-square tests and kruskal wallis tests were applied to determined differences among subgroups, and logistic regression analysis were deployed to detect the socio-demographic factors influencing student's perception.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 1436 medical students were approached and 1387 participated in the study (96.6% response rate). Most students were aware of the health impacts because of climate change, with over 90% perceived air quality-related and heat-related illness, while only a small part identified undernutrition and mental health. Approximately 90% embraced their role in tackling climate change, but 50% reported themselves and the health sectors were not adequately prepared. Compared to clinical students, preventive medicine students were more likely to perceive their responsibility to address climate change (OR:1.36, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.78). Also, 80% students admitted insufficient information and knowledge on climate change and health. Most students agreed that climate change and its health impacts should be included into their current curriculum.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Medical students in China were aware of climate change and felt responsible, but were not ready to make responses to its health impacts. Educational efforts should reinforce eco-medical literacy development and capacity building in the era of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30341722, year = {2019}, author = {Abid, M and Scheffran, J and Schneider, UA and Elahi, E}, title = {Farmer Perceptions of Climate Change, Observed Trends and Adaptation of Agriculture in Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {63}, number = {1}, pages = {110-123}, pmid = {30341722}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {Farmers' willingness and ability to adapt agricultural systems depend on their knowledge about changes in climate and perceived risks of extreme events. Using cross-sectional data of 450 farmers collected from three agro-ecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, this study investigates farmer perceptions of climate change and their agreement with observed climatic trends. In addition, this study explores the correlation between different adaptation stages (perceptions, intentions, and adaptation) and their key drivers using a Multivariate Probit Model. This study also explores the adaptation measures adopted by farmers. The results of the study show that the perceptions of increasing mean temperature match well with locally recorded data. However, a discrepancy is found in some cases between farmer perceptions of rainfall changes and local climate records. Moreover, education, experience, land tenure, land holdings, extension, cooperation, access to weather forecasting, and marketing information are the factors influencing the three adaptation stages. A strong association is found among the three adaptation stages. Particularly, the study confirms the hypothesis that accurate perceptions lead to stronger adaptation intentions compared to underestimated or no perceptions. Further, farmers prefer basic adaptation measures including changing crop varieties, input use and planting dates over advanced measures, such as planting shade trees, soil conservation, and crop diversification. The study recommends providing farmers, especially small landholders and tenants, easy access to information, institutional services and training on the use of advanced measures to reduce negative impacts of climate change at the farm level.}, }
@article {pmid30337544, year = {2018}, author = {Sirois-Delisle, C and Kerr, JT}, title = {Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {14464}, pmid = {30337544}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; Bees/classification/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change has shaped bee distributions over the past century. Here, we conducted the first species-specific assessment of future climate change impacts on North American bumblebee distributions, using the most recent global change scenarios developed in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We assessed potential shifts in bumblebee species distributions with models generated using Maxent. We tested different assumptions about bumblebee species' dispersal capacities, drawing on observed patterns of range shifts to date, dispersal rates observed for bumblebee queens, and, lastly, assuming unlimited dispersal. Models show significant contractions of current ranges even under scenarios in which dispersal rates were high. Results suggest that dispersal rates may not suffice for bumblebees to track climate change as rapidly as required under any IPCC scenario for future climate change. Areas where species losses are projected overlap for many species and climate scenarios, and are concentrated in eastern parts of the continent. Models also show overlap for range expansions across many species, suggesting the presence of "hotspots" where management activities could benefit many species, across all climate scenarios. Broad-scale strategies are likely to be necessary to improve bumblebee conservation prospects under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30334034, year = {2018}, author = {Piacentini, RD and Della Ceca, LS and Ipiña, A}, title = {Climate change and its relationship with non-melanoma skin cancers.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {17}, number = {12}, pages = {1913-1917}, doi = {10.1039/c7pp00405b}, pmid = {30334034}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Carcinoma, Basal Cell/*epidemiology/pathology ; Carcinoma, Squamous Cell/epidemiology/pathology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Incidence ; Models, Theoretical ; Skin Neoplasms/*epidemiology/pathology ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting both the environment and human behaviour. One significant impact is related to health, as detailed in the IPCC 2014 report. In the present work, and as a contribution to this commemorative special issue to Prof. Dr Jan van der Leun, we present the results of the squamous (SCC) and basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) incidence change in relation to the ambient temperature increase. This increase is produced by global warming, mainly induced by anthropogenic atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases. We have broadened a previous study conducted by van der Leun et al. (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2008, 7, 730-733), by analysing the effective carcinogenicity of UV dose, for the period 2000-2200 and four climate change scenarios (called RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The corresponding percentage increases of the incidence of SCC for 2100 are 5.8, 10.4, 13.8 and 21.4%, and for 2200 they are 4.3, 12.1, 19.0 and 40.5%. In a similar way, the percentage increases of the incidence of BCC for 2100 are 2.8, 4.9, 6.5 and 9.9% and for 2200 they are 2.0, 5.8, 8.9 and 18.2%. We report the SCC and BCC percentage effective incidence results as a function of time, for the whole 21st century and we extended the analysis to the 22nd century, since people possibly affected (like the Z and T generations, born at the beginning of this century) will have a life expectancy extending up to the final decades of the present century and even to the first ones of the next century.}, }
@article {pmid30333846, year = {2018}, author = {Holopainen, JK and Virjamo, V and Ghimire, RP and Blande, JD and Julkunen-Tiitto, R and Kivimäenpää, M}, title = {Climate Change Effects on Secondary Compounds of Forest Trees in the Northern Hemisphere.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1445}, pmid = {30333846}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Plant secondary compounds (PSCs), also called secondary metabolites, have high chemical and structural diversity and appear as non-volatile or volatile compounds. These compounds may have evolved to have specific physiological and ecological functions in the adaptation of plants to their growth environment. PSCs are produced by several metabolic pathways and many PSCs are specific for a few plant genera or families. In forest ecosystems, full-grown trees constitute the majority of plant biomass and are thus capable of producing significant amounts of PSCs. We summarize older literature and review recent progress in understanding the effects of abiotic and biotic factors on PSC production of forest trees and PSC behavior in forest ecosystems. The roles of different PSCs under stress and their important role in protecting plants against abiotic and biotic factors are also discussed. There was strong evidence that major climate change factors, CO2 and warming, have contradictory effects on the main PSC groups. CO2 increases phenolic compounds in foliage, but limits terpenoids in foliage and emissions. Warming decreases phenolic compounds in foliage but increases terpenoids in foliage and emissions. Other abiotic stresses have more variable effects. PSCs may help trees to adapt to a changing climate and to pressure from current and invasive pests and pathogens. Indirect adaptation comes via the effects of PSCs on soil chemistry and nutrient cycling, the formation of cloud condensation nuclei from tree volatiles and by CO2 sequestration into PSCs in the wood of living and dead forest trees.}, }
@article {pmid30332816, year = {2018}, author = {Gong, B and Weng, B and Yan, D and Qin, T and Wang, H and Bi, W}, title = {Variation of Hydrothermal Conditions under Climate Change in Naqu Prefecture, Tibet Plateau, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {30332816}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Rain ; Snow ; Temperature ; Tibet ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Analysis of the suitability of hydrothermal conditions for vegetation growth would benefit the ecological barrier construction, water resources protection and climate change adaptation. The suitability of hydrothermal conditions in Naqu Prefecture was studied based on the spatial displacement of 500 mm precipitation and 2000 °C accumulated temperature contours. Results showed that the 500 mm precipitation contour had a shifting trend toward the southwest, with a 3.3-year and 7.1-year period, respectively, in the longitudinal and latitudinal direction, and the longitude changed suddenly around 1996. The 2000 °C accumulated temperature contour had a shifting trend toward the northwest, with a 1.8-year period and a 7-year sub-period in the longitudinal direction; the longitude had a catastrophe point between 1966 and 1967, while the latitude had a catastrophe point between 2005 and 2006. When located in the same vegetation zone, the annual precipitation in Naqu Prefecture was higher than the national average, while the accumulated temperature was lower than the national average, indicating that areas with suitable hydrothermal conditions suitable for vegetation growth showed a northwestward shift tendency. This research would help to support some recommendations for plants' ecological system protection in alpine areas, and also provide guidelines for climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid30332777, year = {2018}, author = {Butler, CD}, title = {Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989[-]2013).}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {30332777}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Civilization ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Global Warming ; *Risk ; }, abstract = {Background: Anthropogenic global warming, interacting with social and other environmental determinants, constitutes a profound health risk. This paper reports a comprehensive literature review for 1989[-]2013 (inclusive), the first 25 years in which this topic appeared in scientific journals. It explores the extent to which articles have identified potentially catastrophic, civilization-endangering health risks associated with climate change. Methods: PubMed and Google Scholar were primarily used to identify articles which were then ranked on a three-point scale. Each score reflected the extent to which papers discussed global systemic risk. Citations were also analyzed. Results: Of 2143 analyzed papers 1546 (72%) were scored as one. Their citations (165,133) were 82% of the total. The proportion of annual papers scored as three was initially high, as were their citations but declined to almost zero by 1996, before rising slightly from 2006. Conclusions: The enormous expansion of the literature appropriately reflects increased understanding of the importance of climate change to global health. However, recognition of the most severe, existential, health risks from climate change was generally low. Most papers instead focused on infectious diseases, direct heat effects and other disciplinary-bounded phenomena and consequences, even though scientific advances have long called for more inter-disciplinary collaboration.}, }
@article {pmid30332438, year = {2018}, author = {Morgounov, A and Sonder, K and Abugalieva, A and Bhadauria, V and Cuthbert, RD and Shamanin, V and Zelenskiy, Y and DePauw, RM}, title = {Effect of climate change on spring wheat yields in North America and Eurasia in 1981-2015 and implications for breeding.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0204932}, pmid = {30332438}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production ; Kazakhstan ; North America ; Rain ; Russia ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Wheat yield dynamic in Canada, USA, Russia and Kazakhstan from 1981 till 2015 was related to air temperature and precipitation during wheat season to evaluate the effects of climate change. The study used yield data from the provinces, states and regions and average yield from 19 spring wheat breeding/research sites. Both at production and research sites grain yield in Eurasia was two times lower compared to North America. The yearly variations in grain yield in North America and Eurasia did not correlate suggesting that higher yield in one region was normally associated with lower yield in another region. Minimum and maximum air temperature during the wheat growing season (April-August) had tendency to increase. While precipitation in April-August increased in North American sites from 289 mm in 1981-1990 to 338 mm in 2006-2015 it remained constant and low at Eurasian sites (230 and 238 mm, respectively). High temperature in June and July negatively affected grain yield in most of the sites at both continents. Climatic changes resulted in substantial changes in the dates of planting and harvesting normally leading to extension of growing season. Longer planting-harvesting period was positively associated with the grain yield for most of the locations. The climatic changes since 1981 and spring wheat responses suggest several implications for breeding. Gradual warming extends the wheat growing season and new varieties need to match this to utilize their potential. Higher rainfall during the wheat season, especially in North America, will require varieties with higher yield potential responding to moisture availability. June is a critical month for spring wheat in both regions due to the significant negative correlation of grain yield with maximum temperature and positive correlation with precipitation. Breeding for adaptation to higher temperatures during this period is an important strategy to increase yield.}, }
@article {pmid30327524, year = {2018}, author = {Warren, M}, title = {Climate change is about to make your beer more expensive.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {562}, number = {7727}, pages = {319-320}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-07015-7}, pmid = {30327524}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Beer/*economics/*supply &amp; distribution ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*economics/*growth &amp; development ; Czech Republic ; Droughts/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hordeum/*growth &amp; development ; Humans ; Infrared Rays ; Ireland ; Life Style ; *Models, Economic ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30325951, year = {2018}, author = {Zavaleta, C and Berrang-Ford, L and Ford, J and Llanos-Cuentas, A and Cárcamo, C and Ross, NA and Lancha, G and Sherman, M and Harper, SL and , }, title = {Multiple non-climatic drivers of food insecurity reinforce climate change maladaptation trajectories among Peruvian Indigenous Shawi in the Amazon.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0205714}, pmid = {30325951}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {//Canadian Institutes of Health Research/International ; }, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; *Indians, South American ; Male ; Peru/epidemiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is affecting food systems globally, with implications for food security, nutrition, and the health of human populations. There are limited data characterizing the current and future consequences of climate change on local food security for populations already experiencing poor nutritional indicators. Indigenous Amazonian populations have a high reported prevalence of nutritional deficiencies. This paper characterizes the food system of the Shawi of the Peruvian Amazon, climatic and non-climatic drivers of their food security vulnerability to climate change, and identifies potential maladaptation trajectories.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: Semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24), three photovoice workshops (n = 17 individuals), transect walks (n = 2), a food calendar exercise, and two community dissemination meetings (n = 30 individuals), were conducted within two Shawi communities in Balsapuerto District in the Peruvian Loreto region between June and September of 2014. The Shawi food system was based on three main food sub-systems (forest, farming and externally-sourced). Shawi reported collective, gendered, and emotional notions related to their food system activities. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of food security vulnerability among Shawi participants acted at proximal and distal levels, and mutually reinforced key maladaptation trajectories, including: 1) a growing population and natural resource degradation coupled with limited opportunities to increase incomes, and 2) a desire for education and deforestation reinforced by governmental social and food interventions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: A series of maladaptive trajectories have the potential to increase social and nutritional inequities for the Shawi. Transformational food security adaptation should include consideration of Indigenous perceptions and priorities, and should be part of Peruvian food and socioeconomic development policies.}, }
@article {pmid30325145, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, XQ and Li, GQ and DU, S}, title = {Predicting the influence of future climate change on the suitable distribution areas of Elaeagnus angustifolia.}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {3213-3220}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201810.018}, pmid = {30325145}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Elaeagnaceae ; }, abstract = {Climate change significantly affects geographic distribution of plants worldwide. Understanding the influence of climate change on the suitable areas of afforestation tree species in China and taking timely countermeasures are crucial for improving the effectiveness of afforestation. Elaeagnus angustifolia is a good species for ecological restoration of degraded lands and control of desertification. Using MaxEnt and GIS, we predicted the changes of climatically suitable areas of this species under future climate scenarios, based on 182 records from herbaria and published literatures, and 13 climatic factors from BIOCLIM, Holdridge life zone and Kira index. The results showed that the four climate scenarios in 2070s had different effects on the climatically suitable areas of this species. The suitable areas would shrink in the lowest greenhouse gas emission (RCP 2.6) scenario. The shrinking areas were mainly located in the edge of the currently suitable areas in the northwest. The suitable areas would expand in the lower (RCP 4.5), the higher (RCP 6.0) and the highest (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The expanding areas were mainly located in the northwestern arid regions of warm temperate zone, and northeastern sub-humid regions of middle temperate zone. There were obvious expansions in the northern arid and semi-arid regions of middle temperate zone, and southern humid regions of north-subtropical zone under RCP 8.5 scenario. The geographical centroids of future suitable ranges would move with a speed of 6-19 km·(10 a)[-1]. The altitudinal centroids were predicted to move to lower regions with a speed of 3-20 m·(10 a)[-1]. The stably suitable areas accounted for 83%-98% of the current distribution ranges of this species, which were generally stable under future climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30322040, year = {2018}, author = {Levison, MM and Butler, AJ and Rebellato, S and Armstrong, B and Whelan, M and Gardner, C}, title = {Development of a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Using a Public Health Lens to Determine Local Health Vulnerabilities: An Ontario Health Unit Experience.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {30322040}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Ontario ; Public Health/*methods ; }, abstract = {Climate change is negatively impacting the health of Canadians and is accordingly expected to have a significant impact on public health agencies and their response to these health impacts throughout the twenty-first century. While national and international research and assessments have explored the potential human health impacts of climate change, few assessments have explored the implications of climate change from a local public health perspective. An applied research approach to expand local knowledge and action of health vulnerabilities through a climate change action plan and vulnerability assessment was utilized by a local public health agency. Adoption and adaptation of the approach used may be valuable for public health organizations to assist their communities. Through completing a vulnerability assessment, an evidentiary base was generated for public health to inform adaptation actions to reduce negative health impacts and increase resiliency. Challenges in completing vulnerability assessments at the local level include the framing and scoping of health impacts and associated indicators, as well as access to internal expertise surrounding the analysis of data. While access to quantitative data may be limiting at the local level, qualitative data can enhance knowledge of local impacts, while also supporting the creation of key partnerships with community stakeholders which can ensure climate action continues beyond the scope of the vulnerability assessment.}, }
@article {pmid30321724, year = {2019}, author = {Aubin, D and Riche, C and Vande Water, V and La Jeunesse, I}, title = {The adaptive capacity of local water basin authorities to climate change: The Thau lagoon basin in France.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2013-2023}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.078}, pmid = {30321724}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change exacerbates climate variability, and makes water governance more complex. The French local water management plans (SAGE) developed an integrated approach that relies on a balance between bottom-up and top-down governance. The aim of this article is to question the actual role of the local basin authorities and ask whether they are central in water governance. The Social Network Analysis of the Thau basin shows that the key actors of the SAGE, namely the Rhone-Mediterranean-Corsica Water Agency, the local water agency and the local water commission, are the most powerful actors in the management of the river basin and play a crucial brokerage role in climate change adaptation. Integrated water resource management shifted power from territorial and central authorities to functional and local managers.}, }
@article {pmid30318097, year = {2018}, author = {Balasubramanian, M}, title = {Climate change, famine, and low-income communities challenge Sustainable Development Goals.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {10}, pages = {e421-e422}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30212-2}, pmid = {30318097}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; India ; *Poverty/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Starvation/*epidemiology ; *Sustainable Development ; }, }
@article {pmid30317170, year = {2019}, author = {Huang, L and Liao, FH and Lohse, KA and Larson, DM and Fragkias, M and Lybecker, DL and Baxter, CV}, title = {Land conservation can mitigate freshwater ecosystem services degradation due to climate change in a semiarid catchment: The case of the Portneuf River catchment, Idaho, USA.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1796-1809}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.260}, pmid = {30317170}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Conservation of Water Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Idaho ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {There is increasing evidence of environmental change impacts on freshwater ecosystem services especially through land use and climate change. However, little is known about how land conservation could help mitigate adverse water-sustainability impacts. In this paper, we utilized the InVEST tool and the Residual Trends method to assess the joint effects and relative contributions of climate change and land conservation on freshwater ecosystem services in the Portneuf River catchment in Idaho, USA. We developed five hypothesized scenarios regarding gain and loss in the enrollment of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the largest agricultural land-retirement program in the U.S., plus riparian buffer and assessed their interactions with climate change. Results suggest that the realized water yield in the Portneuf River catchment would possibly be 56% less due to climate change and 24% less due to the decline of CRP enrollment. On the contrary, if CRP enrollment is promoted by ~30% and riparian buffer protection is implemented, the water supply reduction in the year 2050 could be changed from 56% to 26%, the total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) export would be reduced by 10% and 11%, and the total suspended sediment (TSS) reduced by 17%. This study suggests that increasing implementation of the CRP would likely preserve key freshwater ecosystem services and assist proactive mitigation, especially for semiarid regions vulnerable to changing climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30316094, year = {2019}, author = {Kosai, S and Yamasue, E}, title = {Global warming potential and total material requirement in metal production: Identification of changes in environmental impact through metal substitution.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {651}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1764-1775}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.085}, pmid = {30316094}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In view of the increasing demand for metal use, it is of significant importance to evaluate the environmental impact of metal production. The global warming potential (GWP) in the process of metal production has often been focused upon as a major indicator for evaluating the burden on the environment. Moreover, the environmental impact and mineral exploitation arising from metal ore mining activities, which generate unavoidable mine wastes and have an impact on the ecological biodiversity, cannot be ignored. The major factors for determining the intensity of resource exploitation being the ore grades and strip ratio, the existing indicators for land use employed in the life cycle assessment (LCA) may not fully cover the criteria of the impact of metal mining on the environmental system. Therefore, this study employs the method of total material requirement (TMR) assessment, involving not only the direct and indirect material inputs but also the hidden flows, which are particularly associated with mine wastes. Firstly, the methodology of computing the TMR in the process of metal production is developed. Next, the relation between the GWP and TMR for 58 metals is assessed and finally, the environmental impact through metal substitutes is evaluated from the perspectives of the GWP and TMR. This analysis could identify some of the aspects overlooked in the previous environmental criteria that were concentrating on greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. The developed algorithm may be useful in identifying appropriate metal substitutes, considering the environmental impact.}, }
@article {pmid30315649, year = {2018}, author = {Rugiu, L and Manninen, I and Rothäusler, E and Jormalainen, V}, title = {Tolerance to climate change of the clonally reproducing endemic Baltic seaweed, Fucus radicans: is phenotypic plasticity enough?.}, journal = {Journal of phycology}, volume = {54}, number = {6}, pages = {888-898}, doi = {10.1111/jpy.12796}, pmid = {30315649}, issn = {1529-8817}, support = {273623//Suomen Akatemia/International ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Fucus/*physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; Reproduction, Asexual ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {To predict the effects of climate change, we first need information on both the current tolerance ranges of species and their future adaptive potential. Adaptive responses may originate either in genetic variation or in phenotypic plasticity, but the relative importance of these factors is poorly understood. Here, we tested the tolerance of Fucus radicans to the combination of hyposalinity and warming projected by climate models for 2070-2099. We measured the growth and survival responses of thalli in both current and future conditions, focusing on variations in tolerance among and within different clonal lineages. Survival was 32% lower in future than in current conditions, but the weight and length of the thalli which survived was respectively 267% and 178% higher when exposed to future conditions. The relatively high tolerance to the future conditions suggests that F. radicans is likely to persist in its current distributional range, which is limited to the Gulf of Bothia and Estonian coast in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, this species may be able to expand its distribution southward and replace its congener F. vesiculosus, which, in previous studies, has not tolerated the future conditions as well. In addition, we discovered variation in tolerance to future conditions within one of the clonal lineages, which have been hitherto presumed to lack adaptive variation. The discovery of intra-clonal phenotypic plasticity means that this alga has the potential for adaptive responses to climate change, which may be the key to the future persistence of F. radicans in the Baltic Sea.}, }
@article {pmid30312341, year = {2018}, author = {Skelsey, P and Humphris, SN and Campbell, EJ and Toth, IK}, title = {Threat of establishment of non-indigenous potato blackleg and tuber soft rot pathogens in Great Britain under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0205711}, pmid = {30312341}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Enterobacteriaceae/growth &amp; development ; *Pectobacterium/growth &amp; development ; Plant Diseases/etiology/*microbiology ; Plant Tubers/*microbiology ; Solanum tuberosum/*microbiology ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Potato blackleg and soft rot caused by Pectobacterium and Dickeya species are among the most significant bacterial diseases affecting potato production globally. In this study we estimate the impact of future temperatures on establishment of non-indigenous but confirmed Pectobacterium and Dickeya species in Great Britain (GB). The calculations are based on probabilistic climate change data and a model fitted to disease severity data from a controlled environment tuber assay with the dominant potato blackleg and soft rot-causing species in GB (P. atrosepticum), and three of the main causative agents in Europe (P. carotovorum subsp. brasiliense, P. parmentieri, Dickeya solani). Our aim was to investigate if the European strains could become stronger competitors in the GB potato ecosystem as the climate warms, on the basis of their aggressiveness in tubers at different temperatures. Principally, we found that the tissue macerating capacity of all four pathogens will increase in GB under all emissions scenarios. The predominant Pectobacterium and Dickeya species in Europe are able to cause disease in tubers under field conditions currently seen in GB but are not expected to become widely established in the future, at least on the basis of their aggressiveness in tubers relative to P. atrosepticum under GB conditions. Our key take-home messages are that the GB potato industry is well positioned to continue to thrive via current best management practices and continued reinforcement of existing legislation.}, }
@article {pmid30308889, year = {2019}, author = {Vrzel, J and Ludwig, R and Gampe, D and Ogrinc, N}, title = {Hydrological system behaviour of an alluvial aquifer under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {649}, number = {}, pages = {1179-1188}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.396}, pmid = {30308889}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In this paper, we present an assessment of the sensitivity of groundwater-surface water interactions to climate change in an alluvial aquifer, located in the Ljubljansko polje, Slovenia. The investigation is motivated by a recent assessment of climate change pressures on the water balance in the Sava River Basin (Gampe et al., 2016). The assessment was performed using a comprehensive hydrological modelling approach, which is based on the direct/indirect communication between FEFLOW and WaSiM/MIKE 11. This modelling framework provides a precise simulation of the critical processes in the study domain, which are the main drivers influencing the interactions between precipitation, river water and groundwater under different future climate scenarios. Climate projections were based on the results of the three regional climate models SMHI-RCA4, KNMI-RACMO22E and CLMcom-CCLM4. The results show that there will be higher levels of local precipitation during 2036-2065, the projected river discharge will be larger in the future compared to 2000-2014, and it is unlikely that the Ljubljansko polje will suffer from water scarcity. In addition, amongst the various sections of the Sava River the section between Črnuče and Šentjakob is the one most sensitive to climate change. By running the models under different climate scenarios a deeper insight into aquifer system functioning was obtained. Investigating impacts of climate change on groundwater and interactions between surface water and groundwater on the local scale is a basis for applying such a study on the global scale, which was still not very well investigated.}, }
@article {pmid30308832, year = {2019}, author = {Dong, Z and Driscoll, CT and Campbell, JL and Pourmokhtarian, A and Stoner, AMK and Hayhoe, K}, title = {Projections of water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under future climate change in an alpine tundra ecosystem in the southern Rocky Mountains using a biogeochemical model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {1451-1464}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.151}, pmid = {30308832}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Colorado ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; *Tundra ; Water/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Using statistically downscaled future climate scenarios and a version of the biogeochemical model (PnET-BGC) that was modified for use in the alpine tundra, we investigated changes in water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under the Representative Concentration Pathways at Niwot Ridge in Colorado, USA. Our simulations indicate that future hydrology will become more water-limited over the short-term due to the temperature-induced increases in leaf conductance, but remains energy-limited over the longer term because of anticipated future decreases in leaf area and increases in annual precipitation. The seasonal distribution of the water supply will become decoupled from energy inputs due to advanced snowmelt, causing soil moisture stress to plants during the growing season. Decreases in summer soil moisture are projected to not only affect leaf production, but also reduce decomposition of soil organic matter in summer despite increasing temperature. Advanced future snowmelt in spring and increasing rain to snow ratio in fall are projected to increase soil moisture and decomposition of soil organic matter. The extended growing season is projected to increase carbon sequestration by 2% under the high radiative forcing scenario, despite a 31% reduction in leaf display due to the soil moisture stress. Our analyses demonstrate that future nitrogen uptake by alpine plants is regulated by nitrogen supply from mineralization, but plant nitrogen demand may also affect plant uptake under the warmer scenario. PnET-BGC simulations also suggest that potential CO2 effects on alpine plants are projected to cause larger increases in plant carbon storage than leaf and root production.}, }
@article {pmid30308814, year = {2019}, author = {Byun, K and Chiu, CM and Hamlet, AF}, title = {Effects of 21st century climate change on seasonal flow regimes and hydrologic extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes region of the US.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {1261-1277}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.063}, pmid = {30308814}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Analyzing future changes in hydrologic extremes such as floods, low flows, and soil moisture extremes is important because many impacts on ecosystems and human systems occur during extreme events. To quantify changes in hydrologic extremes, this study conducts hydrologic modeling experiments over 20 Midwestern watersheds using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced by historical observed datasets and future projections from statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) simulations. Our results show that peak daily streamflow at the 100-yr reoccurrence interval will increase (+10-30%) in most watersheds by 2080s due to significant increases in precipitation (P) and increasing P as rainfall during winter and spring seasons. The simulations also show strong shifts towards earlier peak flow timing (up to a month), especially in strongly snowmelt-dominated watersheds. These effects are linked to strong decreasing trends in maximum Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) with warming, which are simulated over essentially the entire domain. Projected changes in 7-day extreme low flows are smaller in magnitude (-10-+10%) with somewhat larger decreases simulated at the end of century; however, the timing of extreme low flows is projected to shift from winter/spring to summer and fall in strongly snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the northernmost parts of the domain. Extreme low soil moisture increases over most of the domain in the future projections up to the 2050s, but by the 2080s there are more widespread decreases in extreme low soil moisture, especially in the northernmost parts of the domain.}, }
@article {pmid30305760, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Economics Nobel for climate change, Hubble trouble and open-access ups and downs.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {562}, number = {7726}, pages = {168-169}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06954-5}, pmid = {30305760}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30301994, year = {2018}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {IPCC says limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require drastic action.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {562}, number = {7726}, pages = {172-173}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06876-2}, pmid = {30301994}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Footprint/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disasters/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Extinction, Biological ; Global Warming/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid30301717, year = {2018}, author = {Balakrishnan, VS}, title = {Global warming: experts demand urgent action to prevent public health crisis.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {363}, number = {}, pages = {k4241}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.k4241}, pmid = {30301717}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid30301052, year = {2018}, author = {Warwick, RM and Tweedley, JR and Potter, IC}, title = {Microtidal estuaries warrant special management measures that recognise their critical vulnerability to pollution and climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {135}, number = {}, pages = {41-46}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.06.062}, pmid = {30301052}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Biota ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Water Resources/*methods ; *Estuaries ; Eutrophication ; Phytoplankton/growth &amp; development ; Salinity ; *Water Pollution ; }, abstract = {Not all estuaries are equally susceptible to anthropogenic perturbation. Microtidal estuaries with long residence times are intrinsically less robust than well-flushed macrotidal estuaries, facilitating the accumulation of contaminants. This promotes development of blooms of non-toxic and toxic phytoplankton, and hypoxia and anoxia may occur in deeper sections of the typically stratified water column. In Mediterranean and arid climates, high temperatures and low and/or seasonal rainfall can result in marked hypersalinity. Thus, any increase in anthropogenic perturbation will further decrease the health of a system in which the biota already experiences natural stress. Microtidal estuaries are also more susceptible to climate change, the detrimental longer-term effects of which are becoming manifestly obvious. Numerous attempts have been made to develop novel solutions to problems caused by eutrophication, phytoplankton blooms, hypoxia and hypersalinity, which have met with various levels of success, but the need for such measures and effective legislation is increasingly critical.}, }
@article {pmid30300346, year = {2018}, author = {Gross, L}, title = {Confronting climate change in the age of denial.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {e3000033}, pmid = {30300346}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; *Denial, Psychological ; Humans ; }, abstract = {This Editorial introduces a Collection of articles in which the authors explore the challenges and pitfalls of communicating the science of climate change in an atmosphere where evidence doesn't matter.}, }
@article {pmid30298082, year = {2018}, author = {Malacarne, G and Pilati, S and Valentini, S and Asnicar, F and Moretto, M and Sonego, P and Masera, L and Cavecchia, V and Blanzieri, E and Moser, C}, title = {Discovering Causal Relationships in Grapevine Expression Data to Expand Gene Networks. A Case Study: Four Networks Related to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1385}, pmid = {30298082}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {In recent years the scientific community has been heavily engaged in studying the grapevine response to climate change. Final goal is the identification of key genetic traits to be used in grapevine breeding and the setting of agronomic practices to improve climatic resilience. The increasing availability of transcriptomic studies, describing gene expression in many tissues and developmental, or treatment conditions, have allowed the implementation of gene expression compendia, which enclose a huge amount of information. The mining of transcriptomic data represents an effective approach to expand a known local gene network (LGN) by finding new related genes. We recently published a pipeline based on the iterative application of the PC-algorithm, named NES[2]RA, to expand gene networks in Escherichia coli and Arabidopsis thaliana. Here, we propose the application of this method to the grapevine transcriptomic compendium Vespucci, in order to expand four LGNs related to the grapevine response to climate change. Two networks are related to the secondary metabolic pathways for anthocyanin and stilbenoid synthesis, involved in the response to solar radiation, whereas the other two are signaling networks, related to the hormones abscisic acid and ethylene, possibly involved in the regulation of cell water balance and cuticle transpiration. The expansion networks produced by NES[2]RA algorithm have been evaluated by comparison with experimental data and biological knowledge on the identified genes showing fairly good consistency of the results. In addition, the algorithm was effective in retaining only the most significant interactions among the genes providing a useful framework for experimental validation. The application of the NES[2]RA to Vitis vinifera expression data by means of the BOINC-based implementation is available upon request (valter.cavecchia@cnr.it).}, }
@article {pmid30297481, year = {2018}, author = {Fontes, CG and Dawson, TE and Jardine, K and McDowell, N and Gimenez, BO and Anderegg, L and Negrón-Juárez, R and Higuchi, N and Fine, PVA and Araújo, AC and Chambers, JQ}, title = {Dry and hot: the hydraulic consequences of a climate change-type drought for Amazonian trees.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {1760}, pages = {}, pmid = {30297481}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Biomechanical Phenomena ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Forests ; *Hot Temperature ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Trees/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Xylem/physiology ; }, abstract = {How plants respond physiologically to leaf warming and low water availability may determine how they will perform under future climate change. In 2015-2016, an unprecedented drought occurred across Amazonia with record-breaking high temperatures and low soil moisture, offering a unique opportunity to evaluate the performances of Amazonian trees to a severe climatic event. We quantified the responses of leaf water potential, sap velocity, whole-tree hydraulic conductance (Kwt), turgor loss and xylem embolism, during and after the 2015-2016 El Niño for five canopy-tree species. Leaf/xylem safety margins (SMs), sap velocity and Kwt showed a sharp drop during warm periods. SMs were negatively correlated with vapour pressure deficit, but had no significant relationship with soil water storage. Based on our calculations of canopy stomatal and xylem resistances, the decrease in sap velocity and Kwt was due to a combination of xylem cavitation and stomatal closure. Our results suggest that warm droughts greatly amplify the degree of trees' physiological stress and can lead to mortality. Given the extreme nature of the 2015-2016 El Niño and that temperatures are predicted to increase, this work can serve as a case study of the possible impact climate warming can have on tropical trees.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.}, }
@article {pmid30297424, year = {2018}, author = {Obradovich, N and Migliorini, R and Paulus, MP and Rahwan, I}, title = {Empirical evidence of mental health risks posed by climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {43}, pages = {10953-10958}, pmid = {30297424}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Cyclonic Storms ; Disasters ; Humans ; Mental Disorders/*etiology/*psychology ; Mental Health ; Prevalence ; Risk ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Sound mental health-a critical facet of human wellbeing-has the potential to be undermined by climate change. Few large-scale studies have empirically examined this hypothesis. Here, we show that short-term exposure to more extreme weather, multiyear warming, and tropical cyclone exposure each associate with worsened mental health. To do so, we couple meteorological and climatic data with reported mental health difficulties drawn from nearly 2 million randomly sampled US residents between 2002 and 2012. We find that shifting from monthly temperatures between 25 °C and 30 °C to >30 °C increases the probability of mental health difficulties by 0.5% points, that 1°C of 5-year warming associates with a 2% point increase in the prevalence of mental health issues, and that exposure to Hurricane Katrina associates with a 4% point increase in this metric. Our analyses provide added quantitative support for the conclusion that environmental stressors produced by climate change pose threats to human mental health.}, }
@article {pmid30296777, year = {2019}, author = {Augustynczik, ALD and Asbeck, T and Basile, M and Bauhus, J and Storch, I and Mikusiński, G and Yousefpour, R and Hanewinkel, M}, title = {Diversification of forest management regimes secures tree microhabitats and bird abundance under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2717-2730}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.366}, pmid = {30296777}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forestry/*methods ; Forests ; Germany ; Microclimate ; Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The loss of biodiversity in temperate forests due to combined effect of climate change and forest management poses a major threat to the functioning of these ecosystems in the future. Climate change is expected to modify ecological processes and amplify disturbances, compromising the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services. Here we investigate the impacts of climate change and forest management on the abundance of tree microhabitats and forest birds as biodiversity proxies, using an integrated modelling approach. To perform our analysis, we calibrated tree microhabitat and bird abundance in a forest landscape in Southwestern Germany, and coupled them with a climate sensitive forest growth model. Our results show generally positive impacts of climate warming and higher harvesting intensity on bird abundance, with up to 30% increase. Conversely, climate change and wood removals above 5% of the standing volume led to a loss of tree microhabitats. A diversified set of management regimes with different harvesting intensities applied in a landscape scale was required to balance this trade-off. For example, to maximize the expected bird abundance (up to 11%) and to avoid tree microhabitat abundance loss of >20% necessitates setting aside 10.2% of the forest area aside and application of harvesting intensities < 10.4% of the standing volume. We conclude that promoting forest structural complexity by diversifying management regimes across the landscape will be key to maintain forest biodiversity in temperate forests under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30296775, year = {2019}, author = {Nilawar, AP and Waikar, ML}, title = {Impacts of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration under RCP 4.5 and 8.5: A case study in Purna river basin, India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2685-2696}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.334}, pmid = {30296775}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change has a significant effect on various hydrological processes in a large river basin. The assessment of these processes is also useful for water resource management and long-term sustainability of any hydrological project. In this study, an attempt is made to quantify the effects of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration in the Purna river basin, India. Three Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 for the four future periods of P1 (2009-2031), P2 (2032-2053), P3 (2054-2075) and P4 (2076-2099) are considered. Differences in scenarios are compared with the base period 1980-2005. The SWAT is used on monthly basis for the period 1980 to 2005 with calibration period 1980 to 1994 and validation period 1995 to 2005. The projected precipitation and temperature show a significant increasing trend compared to the baseline condition for both RCPs. Similarly, the average monthly streamflow is projected to increase by 24.47 to 115.94m[3]/s whereas average monthly sediment concentration by 32.58 to 162.96mg/l under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In particular, streamflow and sediment are expected to increase significantly from June to September at the outlet of the basin. The study results give insight into future hydrological scenarios which will be useful for policy makers to implement effective water resource strategies.}, }
@article {pmid30296610, year = {2018}, author = {Shen, R and Ye, ZC and Gao, J and Hou, YP and Ye, H}, title = {Climate change risk perception in global: Correlation with petroleum and liver disease: A meta-analysis.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {166}, number = {}, pages = {453-461}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2018.09.080}, pmid = {30296610}, issn = {1090-2414}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Alanine Transaminase/analysis ; Aspartate Aminotransferases/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Liver Cirrhosis/etiology ; Liver Diseases/*etiology ; Liver Neoplasms/etiology ; Occupational Exposure/*adverse effects/analysis ; Petroleum/*toxicity ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Liver diseases have been bound to environmental factors, inclusive of air pollution. The exposure of workers to petrochemicals counts as a possible cause of Liver diseases, whereas results are inconsistent with the previous studies. In this study, a meta-analysis is conducted to assess the pooled risk.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDING: A systematic search was performed by related researchers. Correlations are analyzed among petroleum and liver cirrhosis mortality, fatty liver, alanine amino transferase (abbreviated as ALT), aspartate amino transferase (abbreviated as AST). Pooled risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and effect size(ES) with 95% confidence interval are calculated. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias are also tested. Data are analyzed from 5 studies involving 296 participants. Results are incorporated through adopting a random effects meta-analysis. Working in a petrochemical plant shall not increase the death risk posed by cirrhosis (RR&#x202f;=&#x202f;0.44, 95% CI [0.36; 0.54]). Yet the incidence of fatty liver increases (RR&#x202f;=&#x202f;1.22, 95% CI [1.21; 1.23]). Abnormal incidence of ALT and AST also increases.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Occupational exposure plays an important role in causing ALT abnormalities and fatty liver among oil workers, but not a risk factor of cirrhosis, AST abnormalities and liver cancer.}, }
@article {pmid30295401, year = {2019}, author = {Kwiatkowski, L and Aumont, O and Bopp, L}, title = {Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {218-229}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14468}, pmid = {30295401}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Food Chain ; Models, Biological ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton/*physiology ; Zooplankton/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. Evidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels. Here we show that trophic amplification of marine biomass declines is a consistent feature of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models, across different scenarios of future climate change. Under the business-as-usual Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global mean phytoplankton biomass is projected to decline by 6.1% ± 2.5% over the twenty-first century, while zooplankton biomass declines by 13.6% ± 3.0%. All models project greater relative declines in zooplankton than phytoplankton, with annual zooplankton biomass anomalies 2.24 ± 1.03 times those of phytoplankton. The low latitude oceans drive the projected trophic amplification of biomass declines, with models exhibiting variable trophic interactions in the mid-to-high latitudes and similar relative changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Under the assumption that zooplankton biomass is prey limited, an analytical explanation of the trophic amplification that occurs in the low latitudes can be derived from generic plankton differential equations. Using an ocean biogeochemical model, we show that the inclusion of variable C:N:P phytoplankton stoichiometry can substantially increase the trophic amplification of biomass declines in low latitude regions. This additional trophic amplification is driven by enhanced nutrient limitation decreasing phytoplankton N and P content relative to C, hence reducing zooplankton growth efficiency. Given that most current Earth System Models assume that phytoplankton C:N:P stoichiometry is constant, such models are likely to underestimate the extent of negative trophic amplification under projected climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30295388, year = {2019}, author = {Chan, FT and Stanislawczyk, K and Sneekes, AC and Dvoretsky, A and Gollasch, S and Minchin, D and David, M and Jelmert, A and Albretsen, J and Bailey, SA}, title = {Climate change opens new frontiers for marine species in the Arctic: Current trends and future invasion risks.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {25-38}, pmid = {30295388}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; Arctic Regions ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Introduced Species/statistics &amp; numerical data/*trends ; Risk ; }, abstract = {Climate change and increased anthropogenic activities are expected to elevate the potential of introducing nonindigenous species (NIS) into the Arctic. Yet, the knowledge base needed to identify gaps and priorities for NIS research and management is limited. Here, we reviewed primary introduction events to each ecoregion of the marine Arctic realm to identify temporal and spatial patterns, likely source regions of NIS, and the putative introduction pathways. We included 54 introduction events representing 34 unique NIS. The rate of NIS discovery ranged from zero to four species per year between 1960 and 2015. The Iceland Shelf had the greatest number of introduction events (n = 14), followed by the Barents Sea (n = 11), and the Norwegian Sea (n = 11). Sixteen of the 54 introduction records had no known origins. The majority of those with known source regions were attributed to the Northeast Atlantic and the Northwest Pacific, 19 and 14 records, respectively. Some introduction events were attributed to multiple possible pathways. For these introductions, vessels transferred the greatest number of aquatic NIS (39%) to the Arctic, followed by natural spread (30%) and aquaculture activities (25%). Similar trends were found for introductions attributed to a single pathway. The phyla Arthropoda and Ochrophyta had the highest number of recorded introduction events, with 19 and 12 records, respectively. Recommendations including vector management, horizon scanning, early detection, rapid response, and a pan-Arctic biodiversity inventory are considered in this paper. Our study provides a comprehensive record of primary introductions of NIS for marine environments in the circumpolar Arctic and identifies knowledge gaps and opportunities for NIS research and management. Ecosystems worldwide will face dramatic changes in the coming decades due to global change. Our findings contribute to the knowledge base needed to address two aspects of global change-invasive species and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30293660, year = {2018}, author = {Rich, WA and Schubert, N and Schläpfer, N and Carvalho, VF and Horta, ACL and Horta, PA}, title = {Physiological and biochemical responses of a coralline alga and a sea urchin to climate change: Implications for herbivory.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {142}, number = {}, pages = {100-107}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.09.026}, pmid = {30293660}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Herbivory/*physiology ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Rhodophyta/*physiology ; Sea Urchins/*physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Direct responses to rising temperatures and ocean acidification are increasingly well known for many single species, yet recent reviews have highlighted the need for climate change research to consider a broader range of species, how stressors may interact, and how stressors may affect species interactions. The latter point is important in the context of plant-herbivore interactions, as increasing evidence shows that increasing seawater temperature and/or acidification can alter algal traits that dictate their susceptibility to herbivores, and subsequently, community and ecosystem properties. To better understand how marine rocky shore environments will be affected by a changing ocean, in the present study we investigated the direct effects of short-term, co-occurring increased temperature and ocean acidification on a coralline alga (Jania rubens) and a sea urchin herbivore (Echinometra lucunter) and assessed the indirect effects of these factors on the algal-herbivore interaction. A 21-day mesocosm experiment was conducted with both algae and sea urchins exposed to ambient (24 °C, Low CO2), high-temperature (28 °C, Low CO2), acidified (24 °C, High CO2), or high-temperature plus acidified (28 °C, High CO2) conditions. Algal photosynthesis, respiration, and phenolic content were unaffected by increased temperature and CO2, but calcium carbonate content was reduced under high CO2 treatments in both temperatures, while total sugar content of the algae was reduced under acidified, lower temperature conditions. Metabolic rates of the sea urchin were elevated in the lower temperature, high CO2 treatment, and feeding assays showed that consumption rates also increased in this treatment. Despite some changes to algal chemical composition, it appears that at least under short-term exposure to climate change conditions, direct effects on herbivore metabolism dictated herbivory rates, while indirect effects caused by changes in algal palatability seemed to be of minor importance.}, }
@article {pmid30293009, year = {2019}, author = {González-Zeas, D and Erazo, B and Lloret, P and De Bièvre, B and Steinschneider, S and Dangles, O}, title = {Linking global climate change to local water availability: Limitations and prospects for a tropical mountain watershed.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {2577-2586}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.309}, pmid = {30293009}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Bridging the gap between the predictions of coarse-scale climate models and the fine-scale climatic reality is a key issue of hydrological research and water management. While many advances have been realized in developed countries, the situation is contrastingly different in most tropical regions where we still lack information on potential discrepancies between measured and modeled climatic conditions. Consequently, water managers in these regions often rely on non-academic expertise to help them plan their future strategies. This issue is particularly alarming in tropical mountainous areas where water demand is increasing rapidly and climate change is expected to have severe impacts. In this article, we addressed this issue by evaluating the limitations and prospects in using regional climate models for evaluating the impact of climate change on water availability in a watershed that provides Quito, the capital of Ecuador, with about 30% of its current water needs. In particular, we quantified the temporal and spatial discrepancies between predicted and observed precipitation and temperature, and explored underlying mechanisms at play. Our results provide a strong critique of the inappropriate use of regional models to inform water planning with regard to adaptation strategies to face climate change. As a multidisciplinary group composed of hydrologists, ecologists and water managers, we then propose a framework to guide future climate change impact studies in tropical mountain watersheds where hydro-climatological data are scarce.}, }
@article {pmid30291786, year = {2018}, author = {Odey, EA and Abo, BO and Li, Z and Zhou, X and Giwa, AS}, title = {Influence of climate and environmental change in Nigeria: a review on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {441-447}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2018-0043}, pmid = {30291786}, issn = {2191-0308}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Humans ; Nigeria ; *Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {This paper reviews the current issues that involve environmental changes in Nigeria and environmental threats within the country. The fundamental aim of scientific knowledge in environmental studies is to reconcile climate change and environmental sustainability with developmental goals. Therefore, information on impact adaptation to climate change and vulnerability research is required to develop specific, action-oriented, interdisciplinary, successful, sociopolitical and democratic reform for the entire population of a country. This condition requires large inclusion of environmental researchers, institutions, re-inventing of research structures and ideas to dominate the global environmental change research and the critical analysis of present decision making, power, structure and related information structures. This review presents the effect of climate change in Nigeria and encourages adaptation research with challenging innovation, such as the use of energy-efficient renewable energy sources to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper also highlighted the need for researchers to become detailed, action oriented and multiscalar and to attend communications structure problems in enhancing the environmental activity.}, }
@article {pmid30290771, year = {2018}, author = {Rinne, PLH and Paul, LK and van der Schoot, C}, title = {Decoupling photo- and thermoperiod by projected climate change perturbs bud development, dormancy establishment and vernalization in the model tree Populus.}, journal = {BMC plant biology}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {220}, pmid = {30290771}, issn = {1471-2229}, support = {192013 and 263117//Norwegian Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Fraxinus/genetics/physiology ; *Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; Photoperiod ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Plant Shoots/growth &amp; development ; Populus/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The performance and survival of deciduous trees depends on their innate ability to anticipate seasonal change. A key event is the timely production of short photoperiod-induced terminal and axillary buds that are dormant and freezing-tolerant. Some observations suggest that low temperature contributes to terminal bud initiation and dormancy. This is puzzling because low temperatures in the chilling range universally release dormancy. It also raises the broader question if the projected climate instabilities, as well as the northward migration of trees, will affect winter preparations and survival of trees.<br><br>RESULTS: To gauge the response capacity of trees, we exposed juvenile hybrid aspens to a 10-h short photoperiod in combination with different day/night temperature regimes: high (24/24&#xa0;&#xb0;C), moderate (18/18&#xa0;&#xb0;C), moderate-low (18/12&#xa0;&#xb0;C) and low (12/12&#xa0;&#xb0;C), and analysed bud development, dormancy establishment, and marker gene expression. We found that low temperature during the bud formation period (pre-dormancy) upregulated dormancy-release genes of the gibberellin (GA) pathway, including the key GA biosynthesis genes GA20oxidase and GA3oxidase, the GA-receptor gene GID1, as well as GA-inducible enzymes of the 1,3-&#x3b2;-glucanase family that degrade callose at plasmodesmal Dormancy Sphincter Complexes. Simultaneously, this pre-dormancy low temperature perturbed the expression of flowering pathway genes, including CO, FT, CENL1, AGL14, LFY and AP1. In brief, pre-dormancy low temperature compromised bud development, dormancy establishment, and potentially vernalization. On the other hand, a high pre-dormancy temperature prevented dormancy establishment and resulted in flushing.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results show that pre-dormancy low temperature represents a form of chilling that antagonizes dormancy establishment. Combined with available field data, this indicates that natural Populus ecotypes have evolved to avoid the adverse effects of high and low temperatures by initiating and completing dormant buds within an approximate temperature-window of 24-12&#xa0;&#xb0;C. Global warming and erratic temperature patterns outside this range can therefore endanger the successful propagation of deciduous perennials.}, }
@article {pmid30290336, year = {2019}, author = {Tang, KHD}, title = {Climate change in Malaysia: Trends, contributors, impacts, mitigation and adaptations.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1858-1871}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.316}, pmid = {30290336}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {PURPOSE: This paper reviews the past and future trends of climate change in Malaysia, the major contributors of greenhouse gases and the impacts of climate change to Malaysia. It also reviews the mitigation and adaptations undertaken, and future strategies to manage the impacts of regional climate change.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: The review encompasses historical climate data comprising mean daily temperature, precipitation, mean sea level and occurrences of extreme weather events. Future climate projections have also been reviewed in addition to scholarly papers and news articles related to impacts, contributors, mitigation and adaptations in relation to climate change.<br><br>FINDINGS: The review shows that annual mean temperature, occurrences of extreme weather events and mean sea level are rising while rainfall shows variability. Future projections point to continuous rise of temperature and mean sea level till the end of the 21st century, highly variable rainfall and increased frequency of extreme weather events. Climate change impacts particularly on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, coastal and marine resources, public health and energy. The energy and waste management sectors are the major contributors to climate change. Mitigation of and adaptations to climate change in Malaysia revolve around policy setting, enactment of laws, formulation and implementation of plans and programmes, as well as global and regional collaborations, particularly for energy, water resources, agriculture and biodiversity. There are apparent shortcomings in continuous improvement and monitoring of the programmes as well as enforcement of the relevant laws.<br><br>ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This paper presents a comprehensive review of the major themes of climate change in Malaysia and recommends pertinent ways forward to fill the gaps of mitigation and adaptations already implemented.}, }
@article {pmid30288205, year = {2018}, author = {Lafuente, A and Berdugo, M and de Guevara, ML and Gozalo, B and Maestre, FT}, title = {Simulated climate change affects how biocrusts modulate water gains and desiccation dynamics after rainfall events.}, journal = {Ecohydrology : ecosystems, land and water process interactions, ecohydrogeomorphology}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {30288205}, issn = {1936-0584}, support = {242658/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; 647038/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Soil surface communities dominated by mosses, lichens and cyanobacteria (biocrusts) are common between vegetation patches in drylands worldwide, and are known to affect soil wetting and drying after rainfall events. While ongoing climate change is already warming and changing rainfall patterns of drylands in many regions, little is known on how these changes may affect the hydrological behaviour of biocrust-covered soils. We used eight years of continuous soil moisture and rainfall data from a climate change experiment in central Spain to explore how biocrusts modify soil water gains and losses after rainfall events under simulated changes in temperature (2.5°C warming) and rainfall (33% reduction). Both rainfall amount and biocrust cover increased soil water gains after rainfall events, whereas experimental warming, rainfall intensity and initial soil moisture decreased them. Initial moisture, maximum temperature and biocrust cover, by means of enhancing potential evapotranspiration or by soil darkening, increased the drying rates and enhanced the exponential behaviour of the drying events. Meanwhile, warming reduced their exponential behaviour. The effects of climate change treatments on soil water gains and losses changed through time, with important differences between the first two years of the experiment and five years after its setup. These effects were mainly driven by the important reductions in biocrust cover and diversity observed under warming. Our results highlight the importance of long-term studies to understand soil moisture responses to ongoing climate change in drylands.}, }
@article {pmid30287852, year = {2018}, author = {Di Cecco, GJ and Gouhier, TC}, title = {Increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {14850}, pmid = {30287852}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Understanding spatiotemporal variation in environmental conditions is important to determine how climate change will impact ecological communities. The spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature can have strong impacts on community structure and persistence by increasing the duration and the magnitude of unfavorable conditions in sink populations and disrupting spatial rescue effects by synchronizing spatially segregated populations. Although increases in spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature have been documented in historical data, little is known about how climate change will impact these trends. We examined daily air temperature data from 21 General Circulation Models under the business-as-usual carbon emission scenario to quantify patterns of spatial and temporal autocorrelation between 1871 and 2099. Although both spatial and temporal autocorrelation increased over time, there was significant regional variation in the temporal autocorrelation trends. Additionally, we found a consistent breakpoint in the relationship between spatial autocorrelation and time around the year 2030, indicating an acceleration in the rate of increase of the spatial autocorrelation over the second half of the 21[st] century. Overall, our results suggest that ecological populations might experience elevated extinction risk under climate change because increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature is expected to erode both spatial and temporal refugia.}, }
@article {pmid30286359, year = {2019}, author = {Iqbal, MS and Islam, MMM and Hofstra, N}, title = {The impact of socio-economic development and climate change on E. coli loads and concentrations in Kabul River, Pakistan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1935-1943}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.347}, pmid = {30286359}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Economic Development ; Escherichia coli/*physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Pakistan ; Rivers/*microbiology ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Microbial pollution is a major problem worldwide. High concentrations of Escherichia coli have been found in Kabul River in Pakistan. E. coli concentrations vary under different socio-economic conditions, such as population and livestock densities, urbanisation, sanitation and treatment of wastewater and manure, and climate-change aspects, such as floods and droughts. In this paper, we assess potential future E. coli loads and concentrations in the Kabul River using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool with scenarios that are based on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSPs and RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Scenario_1 considers moderate population and livestock density growth, planned urbanisation and strongly improved wastewater and manure treatment (based on SSP1, "Sustainability"), and moderate climate change (RCP4.5, moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions). Scenario_2 considers strong population and livestock density growth, moderate urbanisation, slightly improved wastewater treatment, no manure treatment (based on SSP3, "Regional rivalry") and strong climate change (RCP8.5, high GHG emissions). Simulated E. coli responses to Scenario_2 suggest a mid-century increase in loads by 111% and a late century increase of 201% compared to baseline loads. Similarly, simulated E. coli loads are reduced by 60% for the mid-century and 78% for the late century compared to the baseline loads. When additional treatment is simulated in Scenario_1, the loads are reduced even further by 94%, 92% and 99.3% compared to the baseline concentrations when additional tertiary treatment, manure treatment or both have been applied respectively. This study is one of the first to apply combined socio-economic development and climate change scenario analysis with an E. coli concentration model to better understand how these concentrations may change in the future. The scenario analysis shows that reducing E. coli concentrations in Pakistan's rivers is possible, but requires strongly improved waste water treatment and manure management measures.}, }
@article {pmid30286353, year = {2019}, author = {Du, X and Shrestha, NK and Wang, J}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on stream temperature in the Athabasca River Basin using SWAT equilibrium temperature model and its potential impacts on stream ecosystem.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {1872-1881}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.344}, pmid = {30286353}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Alberta ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers ; *Temperature ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Stream temperatures, which influence dynamics and distributions of the aquatic species and kinetics of biochemical reactions, are expected to be altered by the climate change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change on stream temperature is helpful for integrated water resources management. In this study, our previously developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) equilibrium temperature model, which considers both the impacts of meteorological condition and hydrological processes, was used to assess the climate change impact on the stream temperature regimes in the Athabasca River Basin (ARB), a cold climate region watershed of western Canada. The streamflow and stream temperatures were calibrated and validated first in the baseline period, using multi-site observed data in the ARB. Then, climate change impact assessments were conducted based on three climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.6 and 8.5 scenarios. Results showed that warmer and wetter future condition would prevail in the ARB. As a result, streamflow in the basin would increase despite the projected increases in evapotranspiration due to warmer condition. On the basin scale, annual stream temperatures are expected to increase by 0.8 to 1.1 °C in mid-century and by 1.6 to 3.1 °C in late century. Moreover, the stream temperature changes showed a marked temporal pattern with the highest increases (2.0 to 7.4 °C) in summer. The increasing stream temperatures would affect water quality dynamics in the ARB by decreasing dissolved oxygen concentrations and increasing biochemical reaction rates in the streams. Such spatial-temporal changes in stream temperature regimes in future period would also affect aquatic species, thus require appropriate management measures to attenuate the impacts.}, }
@article {pmid30283484, year = {2018}, author = {Bajay, SK and Cruz, MV and da Silva, CC and Murad, NF and Brandão, MM and de Souza, AP}, title = {Extremophiles as a Model of a Natural Ecosystem: Transcriptional Coordination of Genes Reveals Distinct Selective Responses of Plants Under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1376}, pmid = {30283484}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The goal of this research was to generate networks of co-expressed genes to explore the genomic responses of Rhizophora mangle L. populations to contrasting environments and to use gene network analysis to investigate their capacity for adaptation in the face of historical and future perturbations and climatic changes. RNA sequencing data were generated for R. mangle samples collected under field conditions from contrasting climate zones in the equatorial and subtropical regions of Brazil. A gene co-expression network was constructed using Pearson's correlation coefficient, showing correlations among 78,364 transcriptionally coordinated genes. Each region exhibited two distinct network profiles; genes correlated with the oxidative stress response showed higher relative expression levels in subtropical samples than in equatorial samples, whereas genes correlated with the hyperosmotic salinity response, heat response and UV response had higher expression levels in the equatorial samples than in the subtropical samples. In total, 992 clusters had enriched ontology terms, which suggests that R. mangle is under higher stress in the equatorial region than in the subtropical region. Increased heat may thus pose a substantial risk to species diversity at the center of its distribution range in the Americas. This study, which was performed using trees in natural field conditions, allowed us to associate the specific responses of genes previously described in controlled environments with their responses to the local habitat where the species occurs. The study reveals the effects of contrasting environments on gene expression in R. mangle, shedding light on the different abiotic variables that may contribute to the genetic divergence previously described for the species through the use of simple sequence repeats (SSRs). These effects may result from two fundamental processes in evolution, namely, phenotypic plasticity and natural selection.}, }
@article {pmid30283159, year = {2018}, author = {Hundessa, S and Williams, G and Li, S and Liu, L and Cao, W and Ren, H and Guo, J and Gasparrini, A and Ebi, K and Zhang, W and Guo, Y}, title = {Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {627}, number = {}, pages = {1285-1293}, pmid = {30283159}, issn = {1879-1026}, support = {MR/M022625/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Malaria, Falciparum/*epidemiology ; Malaria, Vivax/*epidemiology ; Plasmodium vivax ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global climate change is likely to increase the geographic range and seasonality of malaria transmission. Areas suitable for distribution of malaria vectors are predicted to increase with climate change but evidence is limited on future distribution of malaria with climate in China.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to assess a potential effect of climate change on Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) and Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) malaria under climate change scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: National malaria surveillance data during 2005-2014 were integrated with corresponding climate data to model current weather-malaria relationship. We used the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) with a spatial component, assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution and including an offset for the population while accounting for potential non-linearity and long-term trend. The association was applied to future climate to project county-level malaria distribution using ensembles of Global Climate Models under two climate scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change could substantially increase P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria, under both climate scenarios, but by larger amount under RCP8.5, compared to the baseline. P. falciparum is projected to increase more than P. vivax. The distributions of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria are expected to increase in most regions regardless of the climate scenarios. A high percentage (>50%) increases are projected in some counties of the northwest, north, northeast, including northern tip of the northeast China, with a clearer spatial change for P. vivax than P. falciparum under both scenarios, highlighting potential changes in the latitudinal extent of the malaria.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that spatial and temporal distribution of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China will change due to future climate change, if there is no policy to mitigate it. These findings are important to guide the malaria elimination goal for China.}, }
@article {pmid30283116, year = {2018}, author = {Kiser, B}, title = {An ode to female space trainees, the creeping cost of climate change, and the fabric of history: Books in brief.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {562}, number = {7725}, pages = {35}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06862-8}, pmid = {30283116}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30275304, year = {2018}, author = {Parent, B and Leclere, M and Lacube, S and Semenov, MA and Welcker, C and Martre, P and Tardieu, F}, title = {Maize yields over Europe may increase in spite of climate change, with an appropriate use of the genetic variability of flowering time.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {42}, pages = {10642-10647}, pmid = {30275304}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Agriculture/*methods/trends ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Europe ; Flowers/*growth &amp; development ; Time Factors ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Projections based on invariant genotypes and agronomic practices indicate that climate change will largely decrease crop yields. The comparatively few studies considering farmers' adaptation result in a diversity of impacts depending on their assumptions. We combined experiments and process-based modeling for analyzing the consequences of climate change on European maize yields if farmers made the best use of the current genetic variability of cycle duration, based on practices they currently use. We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient for identifying a cycle duration that maximizes yield in a range of European climatic conditions. This was observed in six field experiments with a panel of 121 accessions and extended to 59 European sites over 36 years with a crop model. The assumption that farmers use optimal cycle duration and sowing date was supported by comparison with historical data. Simulations were then carried out for 2050 with 3 million combinations of crop cycle durations, climate scenarios, management practices, and modeling hypotheses. Simulated grain production over Europe in 2050 was stable (-1 to +1%) compared with the 1975-2010 baseline period under the hypotheses of unchanged cycle duration, whereas it was increased (+4-7%) when crop cycle duration and sowing dates were optimized in each local environment. The combined effects of climate change and farmer adaptation reduced the yield gradient between south and north of Europe and increased European maize production if farmers continued to make the best use of the genetic variability of crop cycle duration.}, }
@article {pmid30266900, year = {2018}, author = {Moore, JS and Chapman, JM and Mazerolle, MJ and Harris, LN and Taylor, EB}, title = {Premature alarm on the impacts of climate change on Arctic Char in Lake Hazen.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3985}, pmid = {30266900}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid30262270, year = {2018}, author = {Saraiva, ACF and Mesquita, A and de Oliveira, TF and Hauser-Davis, RA}, title = {High CO2 effects on growth and biometal contents in the pioneer species Senna reticulata: climate change predictions.}, journal = {Journal of trace elements in medicine and biology : organ of the Society for Minerals and Trace Elements (GMS)}, volume = {50}, number = {}, pages = {130-138}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtemb.2018.06.018}, pmid = {30262270}, issn = {1878-3252}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Iron/metabolism ; Magnesium/metabolism ; Senna Plant/*metabolism ; Sodium/metabolism ; Trace Elements/metabolism ; }, abstract = {The aim of the present study consisted in evaluating the effects of CO2 enrichment on the growth and biometal/nutrient content and accumulation in Senna reticulata germinated under two different carbon dioxide concentrations: atmospheric (360 mg L[-1]) and elevated (720 mg L[-1]). Biometal/nutrient determinations were performed on three different plant portions (leaflets, stem and root) using flame atomic absorption spectrometry. In general, the biometal and nutrient stoichiometries in roots were increased, probably due to reduced transpiration, and consequent biometal accumulation. An Artifical Neural Network analysis suggests that Mg, Na and Fe display the most different behavior when comparing plants germinated at atmospheric and elevated CO2 conditions. Biomass and growth increases and certain elemental levels indicate that S. reticulata benefits from increased CO2 levels, however some results indicate the contrary, making further studies in this context necessary, as these changes may lead to direct effects on food safety, crop yields, and phytoremediation efficiency.}, }
@article {pmid30261186, year = {2019}, author = {Stensgaard, AS and Vounatsou, P and Sengupta, ME and Utzinger, J}, title = {Schistosomes, snails and climate change: Current trends and future expectations.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {190}, number = {}, pages = {257-268}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.09.013}, pmid = {30261186}, issn = {1873-6254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Schistosoma haematobium/isolation &amp; purification ; Schistosoma japonicum/isolation &amp; purification ; Schistosoma mansoni/isolation &amp; purification ; Schistosomiasis/epidemiology/*transmission ; Snails/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {The exact impact of climate change on schistosomiasis, a disease caused by a blood fluke that affects more than 250 million people mainly in tropical and subtropical countries, is currently unknown, but likely to vary with the snail-parasite species' specific ecologies and the spatio-temporal scale of investigation. Here, by means of a systematic review to identify studies reporting on impacts of climate change on the agents of schistosomiasis, we provide an updated synthesis of the current knowledge about the climate change-schistosomiasis relation. We found that, despite a recent increase in scientific studies that discuss the potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis, only a handful of reports have applied modelling and predictive forecasting that provide a quantitative estimate of potential outcomes. The volume and type of evidence associated with climate change responses were found to be variable across geographical regions and snail-parasite taxonomic groups. Indeed, the strongest evidence stems from the People's Republic of China pertaining to Schistosoma japonicum. Some evidence is also available from eastern Africa, mainly for Schistosoma mansoni. While studies focused on the northern and southern range margins for schistosomiasis indicate an increase in transmission range as the most likely outcome, there was less agreement about the direction of outcomes from the central and eastern parts of Africa. The current lack of consensus suggests that climate change is more likely to shift than to expand the geographic ranges of schistosomiasis. A comparison between the current geographical distributions and the thermo-physiological limitations of the two main African schistosome species (Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni) offered additional insights, and showed that both species already exist near their thermo-physiological niche boundaries. The African species both stand to move considerably out of their "thermal comfort zone" in a future, warmer Africa, but S. haematobium in particular is likely to experience less favourable climatic temperatures. The consequences for schistosomiasis transmission will, to a large extent, depend on the parasites and snails ability to adapt or move. Based on the identified geographical trends and knowledge gaps about the climate change-schistosomiasis relation, we propose to align efforts to close the current knowledge gaps and focus on areas considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30260968, year = {2018}, author = {Zhao, J and Zhan, X and Jiang, Y and Xu, J}, title = {Variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for potato in northern China under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e0203538}, pmid = {30260968}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Models, Theoretical ; *Solanum tuberosum ; }, abstract = {Investigating the variations in crop climatic suitability and planting regionalization can provide scientific evidence for ensuring food security under climate change. In this study, variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for the potato in northern China were investigated based on daily data from 1965 to 2014 collected at 321 agro-meteorological observation stations located throughout the region. Northern China was divided into three areas, including Northwest China, North China and Northeast China. The agricultural climatic suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method were applied. The potato growth seasons were divided into threestages:from sowing to emergence, from emergence to flowering and from flowering to maturity. The comprehensive climatic suitabilityindex (C), which varied from 0 to 1, was established to evaluate the effects of climate change on potato planting. The results showed that, from 1965 to 2014, the C value in the study area increased 0.002 every ten years over the past 50 years with an average of 0.706, benefitting potato growth in the vast area of northern China. Nonetheless, precipitation was found to be the main climatic factor restricting potato growth in northern China. For spatial distribution, the C value showed a gradually declining trend from east to west, decreasing westward and southward over the past 50 years. For the growth season, the C value varied during different potato growth stages over the past 50 years. The C value increased during the sowing-emergence stage and decreased during the emergence-flowering stage and the flowering-maturity stage. The decreased C during the later growth stages would directly affect the quality and yield of the potato, mainly because the flowering-maturity stage was associated with potato tuber enlargement and starch accumulation. Variations in potato planting regionalization in northern China over the past 50 years were evident. Climate change was more beneficial to potato cultivation in northeast China where the highly suitable areas had clearly expanded. However, potato cultivation was most negatively affected in northwest China where the middle suitable areas had receded. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30258078, year = {2018}, author = {Sylla, MB and Pal, JS and Faye, A and Dimobe, K and Kunstmann, H}, title = {Climate change to severely impact West African basin scale irrigation in 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {14395}, pmid = {30258078}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {West Africa is in general limited to rainfed agriculture. It lacks irrigation opportunities and technologies that are applied in many economically developed nations. A warming climate along with an increasing population and wealth has the potential to further strain the region's potential to meet future food needs. In this study, we investigate West Africa's hydrological potential to increase agricultural productivity through the implementation of large-scale water storage and irrigation. A 23-member ensemble of Regional Climate Models is applied to assess changes in hydrologically relevant variables under 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios according to the UNFCCC 2015 Conference of Parties (COP 21) agreement. Changes in crop water demand, irrigation water need, water availability and the difference between water availability and irrigation water needs, here referred as basin potential, are presented for ten major river basins covering entire West Africa. Under the 2 °C scenario, crop water demand and irrigation water needs are projected to substantially increase with the largest changes in the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea respectively. At the same time, irrigation potential, which is directly controlled by the climate, is projected to decrease even in regions where water availability increases. This indicates that West African river basins will likely face severe freshwater shortages thus limiting sustainable agriculture. We conclude a general decline in the basin-scale irrigation potential in the event of large-scale irrigation development under 2 °C global warming. Reducing the warming to 1.5 °C decreases these impacts by as much as 50%, suggesting that the region of West Africa clearly benefits from efforts of enhanced mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid30256156, year = {2018}, author = {Schmidt, CW}, title = {More Cases of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: A Consequence of Climate Change?.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {126}, number = {9}, pages = {94002}, pmid = {30256156}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Child ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease ; Humans ; Incidence ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid30256154, year = {2018}, author = {Lloyd, SJ and Bangalore, M and Chalabi, Z and Kovats, RS and Hallegatte, S and Rozenberg, J and Valin, H and Havlík, P}, title = {A Global-Level Model of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Child Stunting via Income and Food Price in 2030.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {126}, number = {9}, pages = {97007}, pmid = {30256154}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Child, Preschool ; Climate Change ; Commerce ; Food Supply/*economics ; Growth Disorders/economics/*epidemiology/etiology ; Humans ; *Income ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; *Poverty ; Prevalence ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In 2016, 23% of children (155 million) aged [Formula: see text] were stunted. Global-level modeling has consistently found climate change impacts on food production are likely to impair progress on reducing undernutrition.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We adopt a new perspective, assessing how climate change may affect child stunting via its impacts on two interacting socioeconomic drivers: incomes of the poorest 20% of populations (due to climate impacts on crop production, health, labor productivity, and disasters) and food prices.<br><br>METHODS: We developed a statistical model to project moderate and severe stunting in children aged [Formula: see text] at the national level in 2030 under low and high climate change scenarios combined with poverty and prosperity scenarios in 44 countries.<br><br>RESULTS: We estimated that in the absence of climate change, 110 million children aged [Formula: see text] would be stunted in 2030 under the poverty scenario in comparison with 83 million under the prosperity scenario. Estimates of climate change-attributable stunting ranged from 570,000 under the prosperity/low climate change scenario to [Formula: see text] under the poverty/high climate change scenario. The projected impact of climate change on stunting was greater in rural vs. urban areas under both socioeconomic scenarios. In countries with lower incomes and relatively high food prices, we projected that rising prices would tend to increase stunting, whereas in countries with higher incomes and relatively low food prices, rising prices would tend to decrease stunting. These findings suggest that food prices that provide decent incomes to farmers alongside high employment with living wages will reduce undernutrition and vulnerability to climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Shifting the focus from food production to interactions between incomes and food price provides new insights. Futures that protect health should consider not just availability, accessibility, and quality of food, but also the incomes generated by those producing the food. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2916.}, }
@article {pmid30254516, year = {2018}, author = {Dworetzky, BA}, title = {Global Warming for Psychogenic Nonepileptic Seizures? Report From ILAE Climate Survey.}, journal = {Epilepsy currents}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {231-232}, pmid = {30254516}, issn = {1535-7597}, }
@article {pmid30253695, year = {2018}, author = {Newman, TP and Nisbet, EC and Nisbet, MC}, title = {Climate change, cultural cognition, and media effects: Worldviews drive news selectivity, biased processing, and polarized attitudes.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {985-1002}, doi = {10.1177/0963662518801170}, pmid = {30253695}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {According to cultural cognition theory, individuals hold opinions about politically contested issues like climate change that are consistent with their "cultural way of life," conforming their opinions to how they think society should be organized and to what they perceive are the attitudes of their cultural peers. Yet despite dozens of cultural cognition studies, none have directly examined the role of the news media in facilitating these differential interpretations. To address this gap, drawing on a national survey of US adults administered in 2015, we statistically modeled the cultural cognition process in relation to news choices and media effects on public attitudes about climate change. Individuals possessing strongly held cultural worldviews, our findings show, not only choose news outlets where they expect to find culturally congruent arguments about climate change, but they also selectively process the arguments they encounter. Overall, our study demonstrates the substantial role that cultural cognition in combination with news media choices play in contributing to opinion polarization on climate change and other politicized science topics.}, }
@article {pmid30252686, year = {2019}, author = {Al-Delaimy, WK and Krzyzanowski, M}, title = {A Policy Brief: Climate Change and Epidemiology.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1097/EDE.0000000000000925}, pmid = {30252686}, issn = {1531-5487}, mesh = {Administrative Personnel/*standards ; *Climate Change ; *Epidemiologic Studies ; Humans ; *Policy Making ; Public Health/*standards ; }, }
@article {pmid30251041, year = {2019}, author = {Xing, B and Chen, H and Chen, Q and Zhang, Y and Liu, Z and Yang, Z}, title = {Assessing impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Coregonus ussuriensis and other coldwater fishes in northern China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {33}, pages = {34058-34066}, pmid = {30251041}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {ZR2015YL011//Shandong Natural Science Foundation/ ; 51179007//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 201401014//Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of China/ ; 2015ZX07203-005//Major Science and Technology Program for Water Pollution Control and Treatment/ ; ZR2016YL003//Shandong Natural Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fishes/*physiology ; Rivers ; Salmonidae ; Seafood ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change seriously affects habitat suitability for coldwater fish. Amur whitefish (Coregonus ussuriensis) is a commercially important coldwater fish species found in northeast China that is particularly sensitive to water temperature. We use water temperature models for Songhua (Harbin to Yilan) and Mayi rivers to predict habitat suitability for Amur whitefish and other coldwater fish species during the months of July and August in 2014 and 2100-2 months during which river temperatures can reach extremes. The predict-results showed that fish habitat was to deteriorate over time, and to be less suitable for survival of coldwater fish species in 2100 than that in 2014. Under scenario RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5), the time period during which habitat for Amur whitefish was unsuitable increased continually; under scenario RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), Amur whitefish might even disappear from the river basin. A significant increase in river water temperature will compromise coldwater fish survival and possibly lead to their disappearance. Practical measures to control greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the impact of global warming on aquatic ecosystems must be taken.}, }
@article {pmid30250726, year = {2018}, author = {Manzanedo, RD and Ballesteros-Cánovas, J and Schenk, F and Stoffel, M and Fischer, M and Allan, E}, title = {Increase in CO2 concentration could alter the response of Hedera helix to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {16}, pages = {8598-8606}, pmid = {30250726}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Increasing CO 2 concentration ([CO 2]) is likely to affect future species distributions, in interaction with other climate change drivers. However, current modeling approaches still seldom consider interactions between climatic factors and the importance of these interactions therefore remains mostly unexplored. Here, we combined dendrochronological and modeling approaches to study the interactive effects of increasing [CO 2] and temperature on the distribution of one of the main European liana species, Hedera helix. We combined a classical continent-wide species distribution modeling approach with a case study using H. helix and Quercus cerris tree rings, where we explored the long-term influence of a variety of climate drivers, including increasing [CO 2], and their interactions, on secondary growth. Finally, we explored how our findings could influence the model predictions. Climate-only model predictions showed a small decrease in habitat suitability for H. helix in Europe; however, this was accompanied by a strong shift in the distribution toward the north and east. Our growth ring data suggested that H. helix can benefit from high [CO 2] under warm conditions, more than its tree hosts, which showed a weaker response to [CO 2] coupled with higher cavitation risk under high temperature. Increasing [CO 2] might therefore offset the negative effects of high temperatures on H. helix, and we illustrate how this might translate into maintenance of H. helix in warmer areas. Our results highlight the need to consider carbon fertilization and interactions between climate variables in ecological modeling. Combining dendrochronological analyses with spatial distribution modeling may provide opportunities to refine predictions of how climate change will affect species distributions.}, }
@article {pmid30250709, year = {2018}, author = {Marion, L and Bergerot, B}, title = {Northern range shift may be due to increased competition induced by protection of species rather than to climate change alone.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {16}, pages = {8364-8379}, pmid = {30250709}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Few long-term, large-scale studies have been conducted about the factors likely to explain changes in species abundance and distribution in winter. Range shifts are generally attributed to the climate change or land use. This study shows that other factors such as species protection and the ensuing increasing numbers of individuals and competition could be involved. It details the progressive conquest of France, the most important European wintering area for great cormorant, in three decades as its legal protection by the EU Birds Directive. It is based on 13 exhaustive national counts. Cormorants first occupied the farthest areas (Atlantic and Mediterranean lagoons, then larger rivers) from the main-core European breeding area, with only progressive occupancy of the northeastern part later. This strategy mainly resulted from competition for optimal available feeding areas. Suboptimal areas (smaller wetlands harboring smaller night roosts, colder northeastern French areas) and progressive fragmentation of large night roosts into smaller, better located ones minimized flight costs. The coldest areas were occupied last, once other areas were saturated. Their occupancy was favored locally by the global climate change, but it played a minor role in these strategies. Both factors induced only a small NNE shift of the weighted centroid range of the wintering population (2.6 km/year) which mainly resulted from competition (buffer effect). Only the 2009 cold wave decreased the total number of wintering cormorants at the national scale, once the population had probably reached the carrying capacity of the country, while the previous cold waves had a minor effect. Comparatively, there was a greater SSE range shift of the weighted centroid of the breeding population (4.66 km/year). Range shifts of other recently protected species have been attributed to the sole climate change in the literature, but competition due to the saturation of usual wintering or breeding areas should be considered too.}, }
@article {pmid30250673, year = {2018}, author = {Chardon, NI and Wipf, S and Rixen, C and Beilstein, A and Doak, DF}, title = {Local trampling disturbance effects on alpine plant populations and communities: Negative implications for climate change vulnerability.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {16}, pages = {7921-7935}, pmid = {30250673}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global change is modifying species communities from local to landscape scales, with alterations in the abiotic and biotic determinants of geographic range limits causing species range shifts along both latitudinal and elevational gradients. An important but often overlooked component of global change is the effect of anthropogenic disturbance, and how it interacts with the effects of climate to affect both species and communities, as well as interspecies interactions, such as facilitation and competition. We examined the effects of frequent human trampling disturbances on alpine plant communities in Switzerland, focusing on the elevational range of the widely distributed cushion plant Silene acaulis and the interactions of this facilitator species with other plants. Examining size distributions and densities, we found that disturbance appears to favor individual Silene growth at middle elevations. However, it has negative effects at the population level, as evidenced by a reduction in population density and reproductive indices. Disturbance synergistically interacts with the effects of elevation to reduce species richness at low and high elevations, an effect not mitigated by Silene. In fact, we find predominantly competitive interactions, both by Silene on its hosted and neighboring species and by neighboring (but not hosted) species on Silene. Our results indicate that disturbance can be beneficial for Silene individual performance, potentially through changes in its neighboring species community. However, possible reduced recruitment in disturbed areas could eventually lead to population declines. While other studies have shown that light to moderate disturbances can maintain high species diversity, our results emphasize that heavier disturbance reduces species richness, diversity, as well as percent cover, and adversely affects cushion plants and that these effects are not substantially reduced by plant-plant interactions. Heavily disturbed alpine systems could therefore be at greater risk for upward encroachment of lower elevation species in a warming world.}, }
@article {pmid30250671, year = {2018}, author = {Vasconcelos, TS and do Nascimento, BTM and Prado, VHM}, title = {Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {16}, pages = {7894-7906}, pmid = {30250671}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {We performed Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to generate climatically suitable areas for anurans in the Brazilian hotspots, the Atlantic Forest (AF), and Cerrado (CER), considering the baseline and future climate change scenarios, to evaluate the differences in the alpha and beta diversity metrics across time. We surveyed anuran occurrence records and generated ENMs for 350 and 155 species in the AF and CER. The final predictive maps for the baseline, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios, based on an ensemble approach, were used to estimate the alpha (local species richness) and beta diversity metrics (local contribution to beta diversity index and its decomposition into replacement and nestedness components) in each ~50 × 50 km grid cell of the hotspots. Climate change is not expected to drastically change the distribution of the anuran richness gradients, but to negatively impact their whole extensions (i.e., cause species losses throughout the hotspots), except the northeastern CER that is expected to gain in species richness. Areas having high beta diversity are expected to decrease in northeastern CER, whereas an increase is expected in southeastern/southwestern CER under climate change. High beta diversity areas are expected to remain in the same AF locations as the prediction of the baseline climate, but the predominance of species loss under climate change is expected to increase the nestedness component in the hotspot. These results suggest that the lack of similar climatically suitable areas for most species will be the main challenge that species will face in the future. Finally, the application of the present framework to a wide range of taxa is an important step for the conservation of threatened biomes.}, }
@article {pmid30248871, year = {2018}, author = {Ma, X and Zhao, C and Tao, H and Zhu, J and Kundzewicz, ZW}, title = {Projections of actual evapotranspiration under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios in sandy areas in northern China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {1496-1508}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.253}, pmid = {30248871}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an essential component of Earth's global energy balance and water cycle. The Paris Agreement aspires to limit global mean surface warming to <2 °C and no >1.5 °C relative to preindustrial levels. However, it is uncertain how this global level will impact the shifts in the extents of sandy areas caused by global desertification. Using Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) datasets and advection-aridity models, we investigated the spatiotemporal features of ETa in sandy areas in northern China under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. The four climate models indicated significant increases in ETa in arid areas across northwestern China. Over time, the ETa value under only the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) emission scenario increased towards a plateau and significantly increased in the other three emission scenarios (P < 0.01) under global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. In terms of the spatial variations, ETa showed an increasing trend in all seasons except winter. The maximum ETa was 84.61 mm, and high values were mainly located in the southeast of the study area. Precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed good correlations with ETa in the sandy areas in northern China. The sandy areas in northern China showed decreasing trends (0.45 km[2]/a) from 1980 to 2015. Under global warming of 2.0 °C (2040-2059) relative to that of 1.5 °C (2020-2039), the area of sandy land will increase at a rate of 27.04 km[2] per decade (P < 0.01); after this period, the sandy land area in northern China may gradually stabilize, with a trend of 0.02 km[2]/a (2047-2100). Early efforts to achieve the 1.5 °C temperature goal could therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial global desertification and the related impacts.}, }
@article {pmid30248832, year = {2018}, author = {Ishida, K and Ercan, A and Trinh, T and Kavvas, ML and Ohara, N and Carr, K and Anderson, ML}, title = {Analysis of future climate change impacts on snow distribution over mountainous watersheds in Northern California by means of a physically-based snow distribution model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {1065-1082}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.250}, pmid = {30248832}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on snow distribution through the 21st century were investigated over three mountainous watersheds in Northern California by means of a physically-based snow distribution model. The future climate conditions during a 90-year future period from water year 2010 to 2100 were obtained from 13 future climate projection realizations from two GCMs (ECHAM5 and CCSM3) based on four SRES scenarios (A1B, A1FI, A2, and B1). The 13 future climate projection realizations were dynamically downscaled at 9 km resolution by a regional climate model. Using the downscaled variables based on the 13 future climate projection realizations, snow distribution over the Feather, Yuba, and American River watersheds (FRW, YRW, and ARW) was projected by means of the physically-based snow model. FRW and YRW watersheds cover the main source areas of the California State Water Project (SWP), and ARW is one of the key watersheds in the California Central Valley Project (CVP). SWP and CVP are of great importance as they provide and regulate much of the California's water for drinking, irrigation, flood control, environmental, and hydro-power generation purposes. Ensemble average snow distribution over the study watersheds was calculated over the 13 realizations and for each scenario, revealing differences among the scenarios. While the snow reduction through the 21st century was similar between A1B and A2, the snow reduction was milder for B1, and more severe for A1FI. A significant downward trend was detected in the snowpack over nearly the entire watershed areas for all the ensemble average results.}, }
@article {pmid30248829, year = {2018}, author = {Liang, J and Xing, W and Zeng, G and Li, X and Peng, Y and Li, X and Gao, X and He, X}, title = {Where will threatened migratory birds go under climate change? Implications for China's national nature reserves.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {1040-1047}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.196}, pmid = {30248829}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Birds ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change, regarded as one of the major threats to biodiversity and ecosystems, can impact on the distribution and survival of migratory birds. To investigate the threats of climate change to threatened migratory bird distributions, we used species distribution model (SDM) and climatic data under current and future climate scenarios to predict future changes in species distributions and how the geographic distribution of these threatened birds may respond to climate change by 2050. Our results show the hotspots for all species may remain in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River, while more species may dwell in the coastal regions of the Bohai Gulf and the Yellow Sea in the future. Our findings show that the percentage of all species distributions or hotspots for all threatened species covered by national nature reserves (NNRs) in China remain low by 2050. Thus, we propose that China should increase and expand reserves in eastern China. Significantly, we emphasize the creation of protected areas to make it the Ramsar sites in the world and recommend that China should (1) strengthen the cooperation with neighboring countries to share maximum species occurrence data (especially the threatened species), (2) overlay maps of individual species for each taxon to assess the efficiency of coastal nature reserves and predict the hotspots shift under climate change, (3) trade off urban development and ecosystem stability to create new and dynamic protected areas to make it the Ramsar sites, (4) appeal for long-term protection of ecosystem stability to achieve sustainable development in the world.}, }
@article {pmid30245745, year = {2017}, author = {Silva, RA and West, JJ and Lamarque, JF and Shindell, DT and Collins, WJ and Faluvegi, G and Folberth, GA and Horowitz, LW and Nagashima, T and Naik, V and Rumbold, ST and Sudo, K and Takemura, T and Bergmann, D and Cameron-Smith, P and Doherty, RM and Josse, B and MacKenzie, IA and Stevenson, DS and Zeng, G}, title = {FUTURE GLOBAL MORTALITY FROM CHANGES IN AIR POLLUTION ATTRIBUTABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {647-651}, pmid = {30245745}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {P30 ES010126/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R21 ES022600/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30244322, year = {2018}, author = {Lee, SW and Lee, K and Lim, B}, title = {Effects of climate change-related heat stress on labor productivity in South Korea.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {12}, pages = {2119-2129}, pmid = {30244322}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {KMA2018-00122//Korea Meteorological Administration/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Efficiency ; Forecasting ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Occupational Exposure ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; Workload ; }, abstract = {This study assessed the potential impact of heat stress on labor productivity in South Korea; as such, stress is expected to increase due to climate change. To quantify the future loss of labor productivity, we used the relationship between the wet-bulb globe temperature and work-rest cycles with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 as the climate change scenarios. If only climate factors are considered, then future labor productivity is expected to decline in most regions from the middle of the twenty-first century onwards (2041-2070). From the late twenty-first century onwards, the productivity of heavy outdoor work could decline by 26.1% from current levels under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. Further analysis showed that regional differences in labor characteristics and the working population had noteworthy impacts on future labor productivity losses. The heat stress caused by climate change thus has a potentially substantial negative impact on outdoor labor productivity in South Korea.}, }
@article {pmid30240399, year = {2018}, author = {Rheuban, JE and Doney, SC and Cooley, SR and Hart, DR}, title = {Projected impacts of future climate change, ocean acidification, and management on the US Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e0203536}, pmid = {30240399}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Oceans and Seas ; *Pectinidae ; }, abstract = {Ocean acidification has the potential to significantly impact both aquaculture and wild-caught mollusk fisheries around the world. In this work, we build upon a previously published integrated assessment model of the US Atlantic Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery to determine the possible future of the fishery under a suite of climate, economic, biological, and management scenarios. We developed a 4x4x4x4 hypercube scenario framework that resulted in 256 possible combinations of future scenarios. The study highlights the potential impacts of ocean acidification and management for a subset of future climate scenarios, with a high CO2 emissions case (RCP8.5) and lower CO2 emissions and climate mitigation case (RCP4.5). Under RCP4.5 and the highest impact and management scenario, ocean acidification has the potential to reduce sea scallop biomass by approximately 13% by the end of century; however, the lesser impact scenarios cause very little change. Under RCP8.5, sea scallop biomass may decline by more than 50% by the end of century, leading to subsequent declines in industry landings and revenue. Management-set catch limits improve the outcomes of the fishery under both climate scenarios, and the addition of a 10% area closure increases future biomass by more than 25% under the highest ocean acidification impacts. However, increased management still does not stop the projected long-term decline of the fishery under ocean acidification scenarios. Given our incomplete understanding of acidification impacts on P. magellanicus, these declines, along with the high value of the industry, suggest population-level effects of acidification should be a clear research priority. Projections described in this manuscript illustrate both the potential impacts of ocean acidification under a business-as-usual and a moderately strong climate-policy scenario. We also illustrate the importance of fisheries management targets in improving the long-term outcome of the P. magellanicus fishery under potential global change.}, }
@article {pmid30239067, year = {2018}, author = {Valencia, E and Gross, N and Quero, JL and Carmona, CP and Ochoa, V and Gozalo, B and Delgado-Baquerizo, M and Dumack, K and Hamonts, K and Singh, BK and Bonkowski, M and Maestre, FT}, title = {Cascading effects from plants to soil microorganisms explain how plant species richness and simulated climate change affect soil multifunctionality.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {12}, pages = {5642-5654}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14440}, pmid = {30239067}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {242658//European Research Council/International ; 647038//European Research Council/International ; FP7-609398//European Research Council/International ; MOBJD13//European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Bacterial Physiological Phenomena ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; *Soil/chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Despite their importance, how plant communities and soil microorganisms interact to determine the capacity of ecosystems to provide multiple functions simultaneously (multifunctionality) under climate change is poorly known. We conducted a common garden experiment using grassland species to evaluate how plant functional structure and soil microbial (bacteria and protists) diversity and abundance regulate soil multifunctionality responses to joint changes in plant species richness (one, three and six species) and simulated climate change (3°C warming and 35% rainfall reduction). The effects of species richness and climate on soil multifunctionality were indirectly driven via changes in plant functional structure and their relationships with the abundance and diversity of soil bacteria and protists. More specifically, warming selected for the larger and most productive plant species, increasing the average size within communities and leading to reductions in functional plant diversity. These changes increased the total abundance of bacteria that, in turn, increased that of protists, ultimately promoting soil multifunctionality. Our work suggests that cascading effects between plant functional traits and the abundance of multitrophic soil organisms largely regulate the response of soil multifunctionality to simulated climate change, and ultimately provides novel experimental insights into the mechanisms underlying the effects of biodiversity and climate change on ecosystem functioning.}, }
@article {pmid30238321, year = {2018}, author = {Barnes, CS}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Pollen and Respiratory Disease.}, journal = {Current allergy and asthma reports}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {59}, pmid = {30238321}, issn = {1534-6315}, mesh = {*Allergens ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity ; *Pollen ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: A warming world will impact everyone and everything. The practice of allergic and respiratory disease will not be excepted. All the impacts will be impossible to anticipate. This review is intended to discuss significant factors related to individuals with allergic and respiratory disease.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Recent findings include the increased growth of allergenic plants in response to higher carbon dioxide levels and warmer temperatures. This also contributes to the increased production of pollen as well as the appearance of allergenic species in new climactic areas. Stinging insects will extend their ranges into northern areas where they have not previously been a problem. The shift and extension of pollen seasons with warmer springs and later frosts have already been observed. Recent severe hurricanes and flooding events may be just the harbinger of increasing damp housing exposure related to sea level rise. Evidence is accumulating that indicates the expected higher number of ozone alert days and increased pollution in populated areas is bringing increases in pollen potency. Finally, increased exposure to smoke and particles from wild fires, resulting from heat waves, will contribute to the general increase in respiratory disease. The practice of allergy being closely aligned with environmental conditions will be especially impacted. Allergists should consider increasing educational activities aimed at making patients more aware of air quality conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30236344, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Public Health and Implications for Emergency Medicine.}, journal = {Annals of emergency medicine}, volume = {72}, number = {4}, pages = {e49}, doi = {10.1016/j.annemergmed.2018.07.033}, pmid = {30236344}, issn = {1097-6760}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Emergency Medical Services/*standards ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Public Health/*trends ; Societies, Medical ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30235646, year = {2019}, author = {Zhang, P and Qiao, Y and Schineider, M and Chang, J and Mutzner, R and Fluixá-Sanmartín, J and Yang, Z and Fu, R and Chen, X and Cai, L and Lu, J}, title = {Using a hierarchical model framework to assess climate change and hydropower operation impacts on the habitat of an imperiled fish in the Jinsha River, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {646}, number = {}, pages = {1624-1638}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.318}, pmid = {30235646}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fishes/*physiology ; Power Plants ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Climate change and hydropower operations affect hydrological regimes at regional basin scales and impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. The present study proposes a hierarchical modeling framework for predicting and analyzing the impacts of climate change and hydropower on fish habitats. The approach couples multi-scale climate, hydrological, water temperature, hydrodynamic and habitat suitability models and was applied to a reach of the Jinsha River. Flow discharge and water temperature were predicted in the study area for a baseline scenario and three climate change scenarios, and each considered the presence and absence of impacts caused by hydropower operation. The impacts of flow discharge and water temperature variations on spawning and juvenile Coreius guichenoti, an imperiled warm-water fish in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB), were evaluated using a fuzzy logic-based habitat model. The results showed that habitat suitability and available usable area for the fish increased due to climate change, and water temperature rising was the main influencing factor. Water temperature decrease induced by hydropower operation in the spawning periods resulted in the reduction of available habitat area. However, climate change reduced the negative effects generated by hydropower operation, and the available habitat area for the fish would still be expected to increase under the combined impacts of climate change and hydropower operation in the future. It is predicted that water warming, as a result of climate change, is likely to eliminate the spawning postponement effect generated by hydropower operation on Coreius guichenoti as well as other warm-water fish species in the JRB. In contrast, water warming induced by climate change is likely to exacerbate the negative effects of hydropower operation on the spawning activity of cold-water fish species in the JRB. The present study provides a scheme to predict the impacts of climate change and hydropower on other organisms in river ecosystems. The results are beneficial for the development of long-term and adaptive conservation and restoration measures for aquatic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30228379, year = {2019}, author = {Fernández-Gómez, B and Díez, B and Polz, MF and Arroyo, JI and Alfaro, FD and Marchandon, G and Sanhueza, C and Farías, L and Trefault, N and Marquet, PA and Molina-Montenegro, MA and Sylvander, P and Snoeijs-Leijonmalm, P}, title = {Bacterial community structure in a sympagic habitat expanding with global warming: brackish ice brine at 85-90 °N.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {316-333}, pmid = {30228379}, issn = {1751-7370}, mesh = {Actinobacteria/isolation &amp; purification ; Alphaproteobacteria/isolation &amp; purification ; Antarctic Regions ; Arctic Regions ; Bacteria/classification/*isolation &amp; purification ; Ecosystem ; Flavobacteriaceae/isolation &amp; purification ; Gammaproteobacteria/isolation &amp; purification ; *Global Warming ; Ice Cover/*microbiology ; Salinity ; Seasons ; Seawater/microbiology ; }, abstract = {Larger volumes of sea ice have been thawing in the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) during the last decades than during the past 800,000 years. Brackish brine (fed by meltwater inside the ice) is an expanding sympagic habitat in summer all over the CAO. We report for the first time the structure of bacterial communities in this brine. They are composed of psychrophilic extremophiles, many of them related to phylotypes known from Arctic and Antarctic regions. Community structure displayed strong habitat segregation between brackish ice brine (IB; salinity 2.4-9.6) and immediate sub-ice seawater (SW; salinity 33.3-34.9), expressed at all taxonomic levels (class to genus), by dominant phylotypes as well as by the rare biosphere, and with specialists dominating IB and generalists SW. The dominant phylotypes in IB were related to Candidatus Aquiluna and Flavobacterium, those in SW to Balneatrix and ZD0405, and those shared between the habitats to Halomonas, Polaribacter and Shewanella. A meta-analysis for the oligotrophic CAO showed a pattern with Flavobacteriia dominating in melt ponds, Flavobacteriia and Gammaproteobacteria in solid ice cores, Flavobacteriia, Gamma- and Betaproteobacteria, and Actinobacteria in brine, and Alphaproteobacteria in SW. Based on our results, we expect that the roles of Actinobacteria and Betaproteobacteria in the CAO will increase with global warming owing to the increased production of meltwater in summer. IB contained three times more phylotypes than SW and may act as an insurance reservoir for bacterial diversity that can act as a recruitment base when environmental conditions change.}, }
@article {pmid30228328, year = {2018}, author = {Morton, A}, title = {Australia has no climate-change policy - again.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {561}, number = {7723}, pages = {293-294}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06675-9}, pmid = {30228328}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Australia ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Federal Government ; Goals ; International Cooperation/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Leadership ; Paris ; *Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid30228131, year = {2018}, author = {Kearney, GD and Jones, K and Bell, RA and Swinker, M and Allen, TR}, title = {Climate Change and Public Health through the Lens of Rural, Eastern North Carolina.}, journal = {North Carolina medical journal}, volume = {79}, number = {5}, pages = {270-277}, doi = {10.18043/ncm.79.5.270}, pmid = {30228131}, issn = {0029-2559}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; North Carolina ; *Public Health ; Rural Population ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND Recognizing that health outcomes are associated with climate threats is important and requires increased attention by health care providers and policymakers. The primary goal of this report is to provide information related to the public health threats of climate change, while identifying climate-sensitive populations primarily in rural, Eastern North Carolina.METHODS Publicly available data was used to evaluate regional (eg, Eastern, Piedmont, and Western) and county level socio-vulnerability characteristics of population groups in North Carolina, including: percent of persons living in poverty, percent of non-white persons, percent of persons under 18 years living in poverty, percent of elderly people living in poverty, percent of persons with a disability, and number of primary care physicians. One-way ANOVA was used to calculate and compare mean value estimates of population socio-vulnerability variables in Eastern North Carolina with Piedmont and Western regions.RESULTS Across all regional categories, the eastern part of the state had considerably higher averages than the state for percent of persons living in poverty (17.2%), percent of non-white persons (13.3%), percent of persons under 18 years old living in poverty (24.9%), percent of elderly people living in poverty (10.0%), and percent of persons with a disability (13.3%). Overwhelmingly, more counties in Eastern North Carolina had fewer primary care physicians (per 10,000 persons) than the state average (8.6 per 10,000 persons).CONCLUSION Eastern North Carolina has a disproportionally higher percent of population groups that are vulnerable to the threats of climate change. The need for health care providers to understand and communicate the challenges faced by rural, vulnerable population groups is of great public health importance. Communicating these health risks to policy makers is of equal importance.}, }
@article {pmid30225375, year = {2018}, author = {Roth, V and Lemann, T and Zeleke, G and Subhatu, AT and Nigussie, TK and Hurni, H}, title = {Effects of climate change on water resources in the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {e00771}, pmid = {30225375}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Drawing on hydrology, rainfall, and climatic data from the past 25 years, this article investigates the effects of climate change on water resources in the transnational Blue Nile Basin (BNB). The primary focus is on determining the long-term temporal and seasonal changes in the flows of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia at the border to Sudan. This is important because the Blue Nile is the main tributary to the Nile river, the lifeline of both Sudan and Egypt. Therefore, to begin with long-term trends in hydrological time series were detected by means of both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated using several sub-basins and new high-resolution land use and soil maps. Future climate change impacts were projected using data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions based on three different climate change scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Projected time series were analysed for changes in rainfall and streamflow trends. Climate change scenario modelling suggested that the precipitation will increase from 7% to 48% and that streamflow from the BNB could increase by 21% to 97%. The results provide a basis for evaluating future impacts of climate change on the upper Blue Nile River (Abay River). This is the main river basin contributing to the Nile and a source of water for millions of people in Sudan and Egypt, downstream from Ethiopia. Three models (CCCMA, CNRM, MRI) were applied in this research, within two future time periods (2046-2064 and 2081-2099) and one scenario (A1B). The Abay Basin was divided into seven sub-basins, six of which were used as inlets to the lowest basin at the border to Sudan. The above-mentioned results show that under current climate change scenarios there is a strong seasonal shift to be expected from the present main rainfall season (June to September) to an earlier onset from January to May with less pronounced peaks but longer duration of the rainfall season. This has direct consequences on the streamflow of the Blue Nile, which is connected to the rainfall season and therefore has direct effects on the people living in the sphere of influence of the Nile River.}, }
@article {pmid30224086, year = {2018}, author = {Rothäusler, E and Rugiu, L and Jormalainen, V}, title = {Forecast climate change conditions sustain growth and physiology but hamper reproduction in range-margin populations of a foundation rockweed species.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {141}, number = {}, pages = {205-213}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.09.014}, pmid = {30224086}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Baltic States ; *Climate Change ; *Fucus/growth &amp; development ; *Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Intensifying environmental changes due to climate change affect marine species worldwide. Herein, we experimentally tested if the combination of forecasted warming and hyposalinity adversely affected growth, receptacle formation, and photosynthesis of three marginal populations of the brown alga Fucus from the northern Baltic Sea. Growth was not impaired by the projected consequences of climate change but genotypes varied in their responses, suggesting existence of genetic variation in phenotypic plasticity. Climate change further prevented receptacle formation, implying that Fucus fail to reproduce sexually. Photosynthesis was not affected by climate change but varied among populations. Our results show that Fucus populations photosynthesized, grew, and survived well under the projected climate change but their sexual reproduction ceased. This suggests that the marginal populations tested herein are resilient to future conditions but only if asexual reproduction enables them to proliferate.}, }
@article {pmid30216409, year = {2018}, author = {Panchen, ZA and Johnston, MO}, title = {Shifts in pollen release envelope differ between genera with non-uniform climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {105}, number = {9}, pages = {1568-1576}, doi = {10.1002/ajb2.1156}, pmid = {30216409}, issn = {1537-2197}, support = {//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/International ; //Killam Trusts/International ; }, mesh = {Betula/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Flowers/physiology ; Pollen/*physiology ; Pollination ; Populus/physiology ; Wind ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Plant phenological responses to climate change now constitute one of the best studied areas of the ecological impacts of climate change. Flowering time responses to climate change of wind-pollinated species have, however, been less well studied. A novel source of flowering time data for wind-pollinated species is allergen monitoring records.<br><br>METHODS: We studied the male flowering time response to climatic variables of two wind-pollinated genera, Betula (Betulaceae) and Populus (Salicaceae), using pollen count records over a 17-year period.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: We found that changes in the pollen release envelope differed between the two genera. Over the study period, the only month with a significant rise in temperature was April, resulting in the duration of pollen release of the April-flowering Populus to shorten and the start and peak of the May-flowering Betula to advance. The quantity of pollen released by Betula has increased and was related to increases in the previous year's August precipitation, while the quantity of pollen released by Populus has not changed and was related to the previous year's summer and autumn temperatures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that taxa differ in the reproductive consequences of environmental change. Differing shifts in phenology among species may be related to different rates of change in climatic variables in different months of the year. While our study only considers two genera, the results underscore the importance of understanding non-uniform intra-annual variation in climate when studying the ecological implications of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30215727, year = {2018}, author = {Ediriweera, DS and Diggle, PJ and Kasturiratne, A and Pathmeswaran, A and Gunawardena, NK and Jayamanne, SF and Isbister, GK and Dawson, A and Lalloo, DG and de Silva, HJ}, title = {Evaluating temporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka: the potential for higher snakebite burdens with climate change.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {47}, number = {6}, pages = {2049-2058}, pmid = {30215727}, issn = {1464-3685}, support = {MR/P024513/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Endemic Diseases/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forecasting ; Health Surveys ; *Hospitalization/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Humans ; Humidity ; Incidence ; *Seasons ; Snake Bites/epidemiology/therapy ; Sri Lanka/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that has been overlooked by healthcare decision makers in many countries. Previous studies have reported seasonal variation in hospital admission rates due to snakebites in endemic countries including Sri Lanka, but seasonal patterns have not been investigated in detail.<br><br>METHODS: A national community-based survey was conducted during the period of August 2012 to June 2013. The survey used a multistage cluster design, sampled 165&#x2009;665 individuals living in 44&#x2009;136 households and recorded all recalled snakebite events that had occurred during the preceding year. Log-linear models were fitted to describe the expected number of snakebites occurring in each month, taking into account seasonal trends and weather conditions, and addressing the effects of variation in survey effort during the study and of recall bias amongst survey respondents.<br><br>RESULTS: Snakebite events showed a clear seasonal variation. Typically, snakebite incidence is highest during November-December followed by March-May and August, but this can vary between years due to variations in relative humidity, which is also a risk factor. Low relative-humidity levels are associated with high snakebite incidence. If current climate-change projections are correct, this could lead to an increase in the annual snakebite burden of 31.3% (95% confidence interval: 10.7-55.7) during the next 25-50&#x2009;years.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Snakebite in Sri Lanka shows seasonal variation. Additionally, more snakebites can be expected during periods of lower-than-expected humidity. Global climate change is likely to increase the incidence of snakebite in Sri Lanka.}, }
@article {pmid30214693, year = {2018}, author = {Jooste, BS and Dokken, JV and van Niekerk, D and Loubser, RA}, title = {Challenges to belief systems in the context of climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {508}, pmid = {30214693}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This article focuses on the social aspects of climate change and explores the interrelationship between belief systems and adaptation. The links and interaction between external and internal realities are examined from the perspective of contextual vulnerability, with a focus on the multifaceted structure of belief systems. The aim was to determine those challenges regarding climate change adaptation that are caused by a community's belief system and to make recommendations to overcome them. Diverse perceptions of climate change and beliefs from three townships in the North-West Province of South Africa were collected and analysed using Q-methodology, finding five distinct worldview narratives. These narratives were named naturalist collectivist, religious, religious determinist, activist collectivist and structural thinker. It is recommended that policymakers aim to address diverse views and should be informed by factors that increase resistance to belief revision. Information should be framed in ways that foster the perception of internal control, are clearly evidence based and encourage a desire to learn more.}, }
@article {pmid30214380, year = {2018}, author = {Patella, V and Florio, G and Magliacane, D and Giuliano, A and Crivellaro, MA and Di Bartolomeo, D and Genovese, A and Palmieri, M and Postiglione, A and Ridolo, E and Scaletti, C and Ventura, MT and Zollo, A and , }, title = {Urban air pollution and climate change: "The Decalogue: Allergy Safe Tree" for allergic and respiratory diseases care.}, journal = {Clinical and molecular allergy : CMA}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {20}, pmid = {30214380}, issn = {1476-7961}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: According to the World Health Organization, air pollution is closely associated with climate change and, in particular, with global warming. In addition to melting of ice and snow, rising sea level, and flooding of coastal areas, global warming is leading to a tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems. Moreover, the effects of air pollution on airway and lung diseases are well documented as reported by the World Allergy Organization.<br><br>METHODS: Scientific literature was searched for studies investigating the effect of the interaction between air pollution and climate change on allergic and respiratory diseases.<br><br>RESULTS: Since 1990s, a multitude of articles and reviews have been published on this topic, with many studies confirming that the warming of our planet is caused by the "greenhouse effect" as a result of increased emission of "greenhouse" gases. Air pollution is also closely linked to global warming: the emission of hydrocarbon combustion products leads to increased concentrations of biological allergens such as pollens, generating a mixture of these particles called particulate matter (PM). The concept is that global warming is linked to the emission of hydrocarbon combustion products, since both carbon dioxide and heat increase pollen emission into the atmosphere, and all these particles make up PM10. However, the understanding of the mechanisms by which PM affects human health is still limited. Therefore, several studies are trying to determine the causes of global warming. There is also evidence that increased concentrations of air pollutants and pollens can activate inflammatory mediators in the airways. Our Task Force has prepared a Decalogue of rules addressing public administrators, which aims to limit the amount of allergenic pollen in the air without sacrificing public green areas.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Several studies underscore the significant risks of global warming on human health due to increasing levels of air pollution. The impact of climate change on respiratory diseases appears well documented. The last decades have seen a rise in the concentrations of pollens and pollutants in the air. This rise parallels the increase in the number of people presenting with allergic symptoms (e.g., allergic rhinitis, conjunctivitis, and asthma), who often require emergency medical care. Our hope is that scientists from different disciplines will work together with institutions, pharmaceutical companies and lay organizations to limit the adverse health effects of air pollution and global warming.}, }
@article {pmid30213661, year = {2018}, author = {Kumar, S and Bhavya, PS and Ramesh, R and Gupta, GVM and Chiriboga, F and Singh, A and Karunasagar, I and Rai, A and Rehnstam-Holm, AS and Edler, L and Godhe, A}, title = {Nitrogen uptake potential under different temperature-salinity conditions: Implications for nitrogen cycling under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {141}, number = {}, pages = {196-204}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.09.001}, pmid = {30213661}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Chlorophyll A ; *Climate Change ; *Nitrogen/analysis ; Phytoplankton ; Salinity ; *Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {As projected by climate change models, increase in sea surface temperature and precipitation in the future may alter nutrient cycling in the coastal regions due to potential changes in phytoplankton community structure and their ability to assimilate nitrogen (N) and carbon (C). An experiment simulating different temperature and salinity conditions (28[°]C-35 ambient conditions, 28[º]C-31, 31[º]C-35 and 31[º]C-31) in mesocosms containing 1000 L of coastal water from the Arabian Sea was performed and N uptake rates were measured using [15]N tracer technique on 2[nd], 5[th], 7[th] and 10[th] day of the experiment. The results show that, under all conditions, the total N (NO3[-] + NH4[+]) uptake rates were lower in the beginning and on the final day of the tracer experiment, while it peaked during middle, consistent with chlorophyll a concentrations. Total N uptake rate was significantly lower (p = 0.003) under ambient temperature-lower salinity condition (28[º]C-31) than the others. This indicates that lowering of salinity in coastal regions due to excessive rainfall in the future may affect the N uptake potential of the phytoplankton, which may change the regional C and N budget.}, }
@article {pmid30212791, year = {2019}, author = {Yang, Y and Liu, G and Ye, C and Liu, W}, title = {Bacterial community and climate change implication affected the diversity and abundance of antibiotic resistance genes in wetlands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {361}, number = {}, pages = {283-293}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2018.09.002}, pmid = {30212791}, issn = {1873-3336}, mesh = {Altitude ; China ; *Climate Change ; Drug Resistance, Bacterial/*genetics ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Genes, Bacterial ; Microbiota/*genetics ; *Soil Microbiology ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) have been identified as emerging pollutants in the environment. However, little information is available for ARGs in natural wetlands at high altitude. In this study, we investigated 32 wetlands across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, with the variation of wetland types, altitude, and environmental factors, to assess the determinant factor of ARGs in this area. ARGs were detected in all the wetlands, ranged from 1.80 × 105 to 1.35 × 107 copies per gram of soils. The ARGs in wetland soils were diverse and abundant, and varied from each site, but the spatial geographical distance did not influence the ARG profile. The mobile genetic elements in wetlands ranged from 3.13 × 103 to 1.02 × 106 copies per gram of soil, indicating the low abundance of mobile genetic elements suggests a lower transfer rate of ARGs between bacteria in the Plateau. Bacterial community composition was the main driver in shaping the ARG diversity and geographic distribution. Soil moisture and temperature were positively correlated with ARG abundance in this region. These results not only provide a better understanding of the background levels of ARGs in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, but also shed light on the influence of climate change and increased human activities on the distribution of ARGs.}, }
@article {pmid30209380, year = {2018}, author = {Sutton, R}, title = {Attributing extreme weather to climate change is not a done deal.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {561}, number = {7722}, pages = {177}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06631-7}, pmid = {30209380}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disasters/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Models, Theoretical ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Uncertainty ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid30209049, year = {2018}, author = {Newman, M}, title = {Global hunger grows amid conflict and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {362}, number = {}, pages = {k3893}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.k3893}, pmid = {30209049}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid30208067, year = {2018}, author = {Vieira, KS and Montenegro, PFG and Santana, GG and Vieira, WLDS}, title = {Effect of climate change on distribution of species of common horned frogs in South America.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e0202813}, pmid = {30208067}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Anura/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; South America ; }, abstract = {Our main objectives were to verify the effect of climate change on distribution of frogs of the family Ceratophryidae and if the legal protection areas in South America will be effective or ineffective in ensuring the preservation of the toads this family in coming decades. The results showed that in the last 140,000 years, species of the family Ceratophryidae expanded and contracted their distribution areas, which naturally reflected the climate and vegetation changes in the Quaternary of South America. The maps of projections showed that changes in temperature determined the area of habitat suitability of 63.7% of the species of ceratophrids both during the last interglacial period and nowadays, and it seems that this will also be the case for the next 62 years. Given the current concerns about future extinctions in the tropics, it is prudent to examine, with special attention, the effects of climate fluctuations on the diversity and distribution of species, because the current estimates of reduction in biodiversity caused by habitat destruction and emission of greenhouse gases are comparable to estimated reductions during glacial intervals.}, }
@article {pmid30206900, year = {2019}, author = {Anisimov, O and Orttung, R}, title = {Climate change in Northern Russia through the prism of public perception.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {48}, number = {6}, pages = {661-671}, pmid = {30206900}, issn = {1654-7209}, support = {14-17-00037//Russian Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Russia ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {This article fills a major hole in the Western literature on climate change perceptions by reporting detailed data from Russia. While Northern Russia demonstrates high rates of climate change, regional adaptation policies are yet to be established. Complicating the problem, how the Russian public perceives climate change remains poorly known. This study synthesizes data from observations, modeling, and sociological surveys, and gives insight into the public perceptions of current and projected future changes in climate. Results indicate that, similar to what is found in the Western context, unusual weather patterns and single extreme events have a deeper impact than long-term climate change on public perceptions. The majority of the population considers climate and environmental changes locally, does not associate them with global drivers, and is not prepared to act on them. Accordingly, even the best designed climate policies cannot be implemented in Northern Russia, because there is no public demand for them. To address this situation, climate scientists should work to educate members of the public about basic scientific concepts so that they begin to demand better climate policies.}, }
@article {pmid30206398, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Caches of mummified penguins warn of climate-change impacts.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {561}, number = {7722}, pages = {152}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06181-y}, pmid = {30206398}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30205341, year = {2019}, author = {Niu, Y and Yang, S and Zhou, J and Chu, B and Ma, S and Zhu, H and Hua, L}, title = {Vegetation distribution along mountain environmental gradient predicts shifts in plant community response to climate change in alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {505-514}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.390}, pmid = {30205341}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Altitude ; Biodiversity ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Cyperaceae/classification/growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; *Grassland ; Plant Development ; Plants/*classification ; Poaceae/classification/growth &amp; development ; Soil/chemistry ; Temperature ; Tibet ; Water ; }, abstract = {Plants are particularly sensitive to climate change in alpine ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau. The various mountain micro-climates provide a natural gradient for space-for-time substitution research that plant responses to climate change. In this study, we surveyed the plant community in term of species composition, diversity and biomass across 189 sites on a hill of the Tibetan Plateau and analysed the individual and integrated effects of soil temperature and moisture on the plant community. The results showed that, at the quadrat scale, there were decrease in richness of 1.08 species for every 1 °C increase in soil temperature and 3.56 species for every 10% decrease in soil moisture. The integrated effects of increasing soil temperature and decreasing moisture are expected to lead to a rapid decrease in species richness. Biomass had no significant correlation with soil temperature but significantly decreased with soil moisture decreasing (p < 0.01). Biomass would decrease when soil moisture was below 20%, no matter how the change of soil temperature. We also found that gramineae and perennial forbs were sensitive to climate change. With soil temperature increased, the proportion of gramineae increased, whereas the proportion of perennial forbs decreased. The integrated effects of soil temperature increasing and moisture decreasing caused a shift from sedge-controlled to gramineae-controlled communities in alpine meadow. This study not only enhances our understanding of mountain plant community dynamics under climate change, but also predicts the shift of vegetation response to climate change on high-elevation alpine meadow.}, }
@article {pmid30203344, year = {2018}, author = {Cynk, KW}, title = {The process of climate change in mass media discourse using the example of Polish and international editions of "Newsweek" magazine.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {31}, pages = {31439-31449}, pmid = {30203344}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Language ; *Mass Media ; Poland ; Publishing ; *Serial Publications ; }, abstract = {The main objective of the article is to conduct a critical media discourse analysis as presented in the Polish and international editions of the "Newsweek" magazine in the years 2001-2006 and 2012-2016; the subject of which was climate change. The introduction provides the definitions of the key terms, such as: the greenhouse effect and critical discourse analysis (CDA). The theoretical part presents the most important assumptions of the CDA and presents a characteristic of the weekly. The results of the conducted quantitative and qualitative analysis partially lead to varying conclusions. Based on the CDA, the hypothesis was assumed that more attention was provided to climate change in the international (English) edition of "Newsweek", than in the Polish-language edition. Rejected in turn was the hypothesis, according to which, more importance to climate change and their repercussions was provided in the discourse within the last 5 years of publication of the weekly than in the discourse from the years 2001-2006. As a result of comparison of both discourses, the disturbing fact that media discourse did not present and encourage among the readers an active stance in favour of the climate was noticed. It is the task of this influential weekly, the message of which reaches many people, not only to provide knowledge and shape specific values or view, but also to encourage and popularise attitudes in favour of the climate. If man wants to continue to live on earth, then one of their goals is to modify the form of discourse by entities responsible for its form.}, }
@article {pmid30202656, year = {2018}, author = {Shabani, F and Kumar, L and Hamdan Saif Al Shidi, R}, title = {Impacts of climate change on infestations of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) on date palms in Oman.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e5545}, pmid = {30202656}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Climate change has determined shifts in distributions of species and is likely to affect species in the future. Our study aimed to (i) demonstrate the linkage between spatial climatic variability and the current and historical Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) distribution in Oman and (ii) model areas becoming highly suitable for the pest in the future. The Dubas bug is a pest of date palm trees that can reduce the crop yield by 50% under future climate scenarios in Oman. Projections were made in three species distribution models; generalized linear model, maximum entropy, boosted regression tree using of four global circulation models (GCMs) (a) HadGEM2, (b) CCSM4, (c) MIROC5 and (d) HadGEM2-AO, under four representative concentration pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. We utilized the most commonly used threshold of maximum sensitivity + specificity for classifying outputs. Results indicated that northern Oman is currently at great risk of Dubas bug infestations (highly suitable climatically) and the infestations level will remain high in 2050 and 2070. Other non-climatic integrated pest management methods may be greater value than climatic parameters for monitoring infestation levels, and may provide more effective strategies to manage Dubas bug infestations in Oman. This would ensure the continuing competitiveness of Oman in the global date fruit market and preserve national yields.}, }
@article {pmid30201967, year = {2018}, author = {Froehlich, HE and Gentry, RR and Halpern, BS}, title = {Global change in marine aquaculture production potential under climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {11}, pages = {1745-1750}, pmid = {30201967}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture/*trends ; Bivalvia/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/*growth &amp; development ; Global Warming ; Models, Biological ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an immediate and future threat to food security globally. The consequences for fisheries and agriculture production potential are well studied, yet the possible outcomes for aquaculture (that is, aquatic farming)-one of the fastest growing food sectors on the planet-remain a major gap in scientific understanding. With over one-third of aquaculture produced in marine waters and this proportion increasing, it is critical to anticipate new opportunities and challenges in marine production under climate change. Here, we model and map the effect of warming ocean conditions (Representative Concentration Pathway scenario 8.5) on marine aquaculture production potential over the next century, based on thermal tolerance and growth data of 180 cultured finfish and bivalve species. We find heterogeneous patterns of gains and losses, but an overall greater probability of declines worldwide. Accounting for multiple drivers of species growth, including shifts in temperature, chlorophyll and ocean acidification, reveals potentially greater declines in bivalve aquaculture compared with finfish production. This study addresses a missing component in food security research and sustainable development planning by identifying regions that will face potentially greater climate change challenges and resilience with regards to marine aquaculture in the coming decades. Understanding the scale and magnitude of future increases and reductions in aquaculture potential is critical for designing effective and efficient use and protection of the oceans, and ultimately for feeding the planet sustainably.}, }
@article {pmid30200609, year = {2018}, author = {Ebi, KL and Boyer, C and Bowen, KJ and Frumkin, H and Hess, J}, title = {Monitoring and Evaluation Indicators for Climate Change-Related Health Impacts, Risks, Adaptation, and Resilience.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {30200609}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Health Impact Assessment ; Health Systems Plans ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk Management ; Uncertainty ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a range of current and future health risks that health professionals need to understand, track, and manage. However, conventional monitoring and evaluation (M&amp;E) as practiced in the health sector, including the use of indicators, does not adequately serve this purpose. Improved indicators are needed in three broad categories: (1) vulnerability and exposure to climate-related hazards; (2) current impacts and projected risks; and (3) adaptation processes and health system resilience. These indicators are needed at the population level and at the health systems level (including clinical care and public health). Selected indicators must be sensitive, valid, and useful. And they must account for uncertainties about the magnitude and pattern of climate change; the broad range of upstream drivers of climate-sensitive health outcomes; and the complexities of adaptation itself, including institutional learning and knowledge management to inform iterative risk management. Barriers and constraints to implementing such indicators must be addressed, and lessons learned need to be added to the evidence base. This paper describes an approach to climate and health indicators, including characteristics of the indicators, implementation, and research needs.}, }
@article {pmid30200277, year = {2018}, author = {Chersich, MF and Wright, CY and Venter, F and Rees, H and Scorgie, F and Erasmus, B}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {30200277}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Humans ; Mental Health ; *Public Health ; South Africa/epidemiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Given its associated burden of disease, climate change in South Africa could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent health-sector response. The growing impact of climate change has major implications for South Africa, especially for the numerous vulnerable groups in the country. We systematically reviewed the literature by searching PubMed and Web of Science. Of the 820 papers screened, 34 were identified that assessed the impacts of climate change on health in the country. Most papers covered effects of heat on health or on infectious diseases (20/34; 59%). We found that extreme weather events are the most noticeable effects to date, especially droughts in the Western Cape, but rises in vector-borne diseases are gaining prominence. Climate aberration is also linked in myriad ways with outbreaks of food and waterborne diseases, and possibly with the recent Listeria epidemic. The potential impacts of climate change on mental health may compound the multiple social stressors that already beset the populace. Climate change heightens the pre-existing vulnerabilities of women, fishing communities, rural subsistence farmers and those living in informal settlements. Further gender disparities, eco-migration and social disruptions may undermine the prevention-but also treatment-of HIV. Our findings suggest that focused research and effective use of surveillance data are required to monitor climate change's impacts; traditional strengths of the country's health sector. The health sector, hitherto a fringe player, should assume a greater leadership role in promoting policies that protect the public's health, address inequities and advance the country's commitments to climate change accords.}, }
@article {pmid30199690, year = {2019}, author = {Trauernicht, C}, title = {Vegetation-Rainfall interactions reveal how climate variability and climate change alter spatial patterns of wildland fire probability on Big Island, Hawaii.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {459-469}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.347}, pmid = {30199690}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The area burned annually by wildland fire in Hawaii has increased fourfold in recent decades. The archipelago's novel fuel types and climatic heterogeneity pose significant challenges for fire risk assessment and fire management. Probability-based fire occurrence models using historical wildfire records provide a means to assess and attribute fire risk in regions of the world like Hawaii where investment in fire science is limited. This research used generalized additive models to 1) assess the relative contribution of vegetation, climate, and human-caused ignitions to the probability of fire in the northwest quadrant of Hawaii Island and 2) compare how landscape flammability varies due to interannual rainfall variability versus projected changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR) and temperature. Annual fire probability was highest for grasslands and peaked at drier conditions (0.04 at 450 mm MAR) when compared with shrublands (0.03 at 650 mm MAR) and forest (0.015 at 600 mm MAR). Excess rainfall the year prior to fire occurrence increased fire risk across grasslands, and thus overall fire probability, more so than drought the year that fire occurred. Drying and warming trends for the region under projected climate change increased maximum values of fire probability by as much as 375% and shifted areas of peak landscape flammability to higher elevation. Model predictions under future climate also indicate the largest changes in landscape flammability will happen by mid-Century. The influence of antecedent wet years on fire risk can improve near-term predictions of fire risk in Hawaii while climate projections indicate that fire management will need to be prioritized at upper elevations where high value natural resources are concentrated.}, }
@article {pmid30199682, year = {2019}, author = {Pandey, VP and Dhaubanjar, S and Bharati, L and Thapa, BR}, title = {Hydrological response of Chamelia watershed in Mahakali Basin to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {650}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {365-383}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.053}, pmid = {30199682}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Chamelia (catchment area = 1603 km[2]), a tributary of Mahakali, is a snow-fed watershed in Western Nepal. The watershed has 14 hydropower projects at various stages of development. This study simulated the current and future hydrological system of Chamelia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated for 2001-2007; validated for 2008-2013; and then applied to assess streamflow response to projected future climate scenarios. Multi-site calibration ensures that the model is capable of reproducing hydrological heterogeneity within the watershed. Current water balance above the Q120 hydrological station in the forms of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and net water yield are 2469 mm, 381 mm and 1946 mm, respectively. Outputs of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future periods were considered for assessing climate change impacts. An ensemble of bias-corrected RCM projections showed that maximum temperature under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures is projected to increase from the baseline by 0.9 °C (1.1 °C), 1.4 °C (2.1 °C), and 1.6 °C (3.4 °C), respectively. Minimum temperature for the same scenarios and future periods are projected to increase by 0.9 °C (1.2 °C), 1.6 °C (2.5 °C), and 2.0 °C (3.9 °C), respectively. Average annual precipitation under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 10% (11%), 10% (15%), and 13% (15%), respectively. Based on the five RCMs considered, there is a high consensus for increase in temperature but higher uncertainty with respect to precipitations. Under these projected changes, average annual streamflow was simulated to increase gradually from the near to far future under both RCPs; for instance, by 8.2% in near-, 12.2% in mid-, and 15.0% in far-future under RCP4.5 scenarios. The results are useful for planning water infrastructure projects, in Chamelia and throughout the Mahakali basin, to ensure long-term sustainability under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30199667, year = {2018}, author = {Arbuthnott, K and Hajat, S and Heaviside, C and Vardoulakis, S}, title = {What is cold-related mortality? A multi-disciplinary perspective to inform climate change impact assessments.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {121}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {119-129}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2018.08.053}, pmid = {30199667}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cold Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; London/epidemiology ; Models, Theoretical ; *Mortality ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There is a growing discussion regarding the mortality burdens of hot and cold weather and how the balance between these may alter as a result of climate change. Net effects of climate change are often presented, and in some settings these may suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality will outweigh increases in heat-related mortality. However, key to these discussions is that the magnitude of temperature-related mortality is wholly sensitive to the placement of the temperature threshold above or below which effects are modelled. For cold exposure especially, where threshold effects are often ill-defined, choices in threshold placement have varied widely between published studies, even within the same location. Despite this, there is little discussion around appropriate threshold selection and whether reported associations reflect true causal relationships - i.e. whether all deaths occurring below a given temperature threshold can be regarded as cold-related and are therefore likely to decrease as climate warms.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Our objectives are to initiate a discussion around the importance of threshold placement and examine evidence for causality across the full range of temperatures used to quantify cold-related mortality. We examine whether understanding causal mechanisms can inform threshold selection, the interpretation of current and future cold-related health burdens and their use in policy formation.<br><br>METHODS: Using Greater London data as an example, we first illustrate the sensitivity of cold related mortality to threshold selection. Using the Bradford Hill criteria as a framework, we then integrate knowledge and evidence from multiple disciplines and areas- including animal and human physiology, epidemiology, biomarker studies and population level studies. This allows for discussion of several possible direct and indirect causal mechanisms operating across the range of 'cold' temperatures and lag periods used in health impact studies, and whether this in turn can inform appropriate threshold placement.<br><br>RESULTS: Evidence from a range of disciplines appears to support a causal relationship for cold across a range of temperatures and lag periods, although there is more consistent evidence for a causal effect at more extreme temperatures. It is plausible that 'direct' mechanisms for cold mortality are likely to occur at lower temperatures and 'indirect' mechanisms (e.g. via increased spread of infection) may occur at milder temperatures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Separating the effects of 'extreme' and 'moderate' cold (e.g. temperatures between approximately 8-9&#x202f;&#xb0;C and 18&#x202f;&#xb0;C in the UK) could help the interpretation of studies quoting attributable mortality burdens. However there remains the general dilemma of whether it is better to use a lower cold threshold below which we are more certain of a causal relationship, but at the risk of under-estimating deaths attributable to cold.}, }
@article {pmid30196319, year = {2018}, author = {Akbarpour, S and Niksokhan, MH}, title = {Investigating effects of climate change, urbanization, and sea level changes on groundwater resources in a coastal aquifer: an integrated assessment.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {190}, number = {10}, pages = {579}, pmid = {30196319}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Groundwater/*chemistry ; Iran ; Models, Theoretical ; Seawater/*analysis ; Soil ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Urbanization and climate change are causing numerous side effects on groundwater resources. In this study, an integrated modeling approach by linking soil and water application tool (SWAT), modular finite difference groundwater flow (MODFLOW), and three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow coupled with multi-species solute and heat transport (SEAWAT) models were used to exhibit responses of groundwater systems, in terms of flow and salt concentrations to current and future climatic and anthropogenic changes. Future climate scenarios for periods of 2010-2040 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM) for scenarios A1B, B1, and A2 which was downscaled by the Long Ashton Research Station weather generator (LARS-WG) providing precipitation and temperature patterns for the period 2018-2040. The GCM's outputs were applied to SWAT model to estimate recharge rate for the ten scenarios designed to assess the sensitivity of the aquifer to urbanization and climate change. The estimated recharge rate from SWAT was utilized as an input in numerical groundwater model to evaluate saltwater intrusion (SWI), changes in freshwater storage within the aquifer system, and changes in groundwater level. Based on the results of each scenario's simulation, increase of pumping rate yield by future population growth will have more adverse effects on the unconfined aquifer. The derived information from this study can be used to improve future works by developing a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged response of freshwater storage and unconfined groundwater systems to climate change and anthropogenic activities.}, }
@article {pmid30194394, year = {2018}, author = {Alava, JJ and Cisneros-Montemayor, AM and Sumaila, UR and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Projected amplification of food web bioaccumulation of MeHg and PCBs under climate change in the Northeastern Pacific.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {13460}, pmid = {30194394}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; Mercury Compounds/*metabolism ; Pacific Ocean ; Polychlorinated Biphenyls/*metabolism ; Salmon/*metabolism ; Whale, Killer/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Climate change increases exposure and bioaccumulation of pollutants in marine organisms, posing substantial ecophysiological and ecotoxicological risks. Here, we applied a trophodynamic ecosystem model to examine the bioaccumulation of organic mercury (MeHg) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in a Northeastern Pacific marine food web under climate change. We found largely heterogeneous sensitivity in climate-pollution impacts between chemicals and trophic groups. Concentration of MeHg and PCBs in top predators, including resident killer whales, is projected to be amplified by 8 and 3%, respectively, by 2100 under a high carbon emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) relative to a no-climate change control scenario. However, the level of amplification increases with higher carbon emission scenario for MeHg, but decreases for PCBs. Such idiosyncratic responses are shaped by the differences in bioaccumulation pathways between MeHg and PCBs, and the modifications of food web dynamics between different levels of climate change. Climate-induced pollutant amplification in mid-trophic level predators (Chinook salmon) are projected to be higher (~10%) than killer whales. Overall, the predicted trophic magnification factor is ten-fold higher in MeHg than in PCBs under high CO2 emissions. This contribution highlights the importance of understanding the interactions with anthropogenic organic pollutants in assessing climate risks on marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30191473, year = {2018}, author = {Hutchins, SS and Bouye, K and Luber, G and Briseno, L and Hunter, C and Corso, L}, title = {Public Health Agency Responses and Opportunities to Protect Against Health Impacts of Climate Change Among US Populations with Multiple Vulnerabilities.}, journal = {Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities}, volume = {5}, number = {6}, pages = {1159-1170}, pmid = {30191473}, issn = {2196-8837}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Government Agencies ; Humans ; *Public Health ; United States ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {During the past several decades, unprecedented global changes in climate have given rise to an increase in extreme weather and other climate events and their consequences such as heavy rainfall, hurricanes, flooding, heat waves, wildfires, and air pollution. These climate effects have direct impacts on human health such as premature death, injuries, exacerbation of health conditions, disruption of mental well-being, as well as indirect impacts through food- and water-related infections and illnesses. While all populations are at risk for these adverse health outcomes, some populations are at greater risk because of multiple vulnerabilities resulting from increased exposure to risk-prone areas, increased sensitivity due to underlying health conditions, and limited adaptive capacity primarily because of a lack of economic resources to respond adequately. We discuss current governmental public health responses and their future opportunities to improve resilience of special populations at greatest risk for adverse health outcomes. Vulnerability assessment, adaptation plans, public health emergency response, and public health agency accreditation are all current governmental public health actions. Governmental public health opportunities include integration of these current responses with health equity initiatives and programs in communities.}, }
@article {pmid30190492, year = {2018}, author = {Chen, C and Guerit, L and Foreman, BZ and Hassenruck-Gudipati, HJ and Adatte, T and Honegger, L and Perret, M and Sluijs, A and Castelltort, S}, title = {Estimating regional flood discharge during Palaeocene-Eocene global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {13391}, pmid = {30190492}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {200021-146822//Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F&#x00F6;rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation)/International ; }, abstract = {Among the most urgent challenges in future climate change scenarios is accurately predicting the magnitude to which precipitation extremes will intensify. Analogous changes have been reported for an episode of millennial-scale 5 °C warming, termed the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), providing independent constraints on hydrological response to global warming. However, quantifying hydrologic extremes during geologic global warming analogs has proven difficult. Here we show that water discharge increased by at least 1.35 and potentially up to 14 times during the early phase of the PETM in northern Spain. We base these estimates on analyses of channel dimensions, sediment grain size, and palaeochannel gradients across the early PETM, which is regionally marked by an abrupt transition from overbank palaeosol deposits to conglomeratic fluvial sequences. We infer that extreme floods and channel mobility quickly denuded surrounding soil-mantled landscapes, plausibly enhanced by regional vegetation decline, and exported enormous quantities of terrigenous material towards the ocean. These results support hypotheses that extreme rainfall events and associated risks of flooding increase with global warming at similar, but potentially at much higher, magnitudes than currently predicted.}, }
@article {pmid30188919, year = {2018}, author = {Halley, JM and Van Houtan, KS and Mantua, N}, title = {How survival curves affect populations' vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {e0203124}, pmid = {30188919}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Extinction, Biological ; Fertility ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; Mortality ; Population Dynamics ; Stochastic Processes ; Survival Analysis ; }, abstract = {Human activities are exposing organisms not only to direct threats (e.g. habitat loss) but also to indirect environmental pressures such as climate change, which involves not just directional global warming but also increasing climatic variability. Such changes will impact whole communities of organisms and the possible effects on population dynamics have raised concerns about increased extinction rates. Conservation-minded approaches to extinction risk vary from range shifts predicted by climate envelope models with no population dynamics to population viability analyses that ignore environmental variability altogether. Our modelling study shows that these extremes are modelling responses to a spectrum of environmental sensitivity that organisms may exhibit. We show how the survival curve plays a major role in how environmental variability leads to population fluctuations. While it is often supposed that low-fecundity organisms (those with high parental investment) will be the most vulnerable to climate change, it is those with high fecundity (low parental investment) that are likely to be more sensitive to such changes. We also find that abundance variations in high fecundity populations is driven primarily by fluctuations in the survival of early life stages, the more so if those environmental changes are autocorrelated in time. We show which types of conservation actions are most appropriate for a number of real populations. While the most effective conservation actions for organisms of low fecundity is to avoid killing them, for populations with high fecundity (and low parental investment), our study suggests conservation should focus more on protecting early life stages from hostile environments.}, }
@article {pmid30188004, year = {2019}, author = {Fernández-Pascual, E and Mattana, E and Pritchard, HW}, title = {Seeds of future past: climate change and the thermal memory of plant reproductive traits.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {94}, number = {2}, pages = {439-456}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12461}, pmid = {30188004}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Germination ; Multivariate Analysis ; Phylogeny ; Plant Dormancy/physiology ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Publication Bias ; Reproduction ; Seedlings/growth &amp; development ; Seeds/*physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Plant persistence and migration in face of climate change depends on successful reproduction by seed, a central aspect of plant life that drives population dynamics, community assembly and species distributions. Plant reproduction by seed is a chain of physiological processes, the rates of which are a function of temperature, and can be modelled using thermal time models. Importantly, while seed reproduction responds to its instantaneous thermal environment, there is also evidence of phenotypic plasticity in response to the thermal history experienced by the plant's recent ancestors, by the reproducing plant since seedling establishment, and by its seeds both before and after their release. This phenotypic plasticity enables a thermal memory of plant reproduction, which allows individuals to acclimatise to their surroundings. This review synthesises current knowledge on the thermal memory of plant reproduction by seed, and highlights its importance for modelling approaches based on physiological thermal time. We performed a comprehensive search in the Web of Science and analysed 533 relevant articles, of which 81 provided material for a meta-analysis of thermal memory in reproductive functional traits based on the effect size Zr. The articles encompassed the topics of seed development, seed yield (mass and number), seed dormancy (physiological, morphological and physical), germination, and seedling establishment. The results of the meta-analysis provide evidence for a thermal memory of seed yield, physiological dormancy and germination. Seed mass and physiological dormancy appear to be the central hubs of this memory. We argue for integrating thermal memory into a predictive framework based on physiological time modelling. This will provide a quantitative assessment of plant reproduction, a complex system that integrates past and present thermal inputs to achieve successful reproduction in changing environments. The effects of a warming environment on plant reproduction cannot be reduced to a qualitative interpretation of absolute positives and negatives. Rather, these effects need to be understood in terms of changing rates and thresholds for the physiological process that underlie reproduction by seed.}, }
@article {pmid30187645, year = {2018}, author = {Usinowicz, J and Levine, JM}, title = {Species persistence under climate change: a geographical scale coexistence problem.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {1589-1603}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13108}, pmid = {30187645}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {31003A_173210//Swiss National Science Foundation/Switzerland ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Forecasting the impacts of climate change on biological diversity requires better ways to incorporate competitive interactions into predictions of species' range dynamics and persistence. This problem has been studied extensively in a different context by theoreticians evaluating the coexistence of species in spatially heterogeneous environments. Here, we show how spatial coexistence theory can be adapted to provide a mathematical framework for understanding species persistence in competitive communities under climate change. We first show how the spatial low-density growth rate provides the relevant metric of species persistence along a climate gradient. We then analyse a model of multiple migrating competitors to show how mechanisms contributing to low-density growth rates quantify the effect of different competitive processes on persistence, and how these processes change in strength with species' asynchronous migration under climate change. Finally, we outline the empirical utility of the framework, showing how the theory can scale up from local measurements of species performance and competitive interactions to range-scale metrics of persistence. Treating species' range dynamics as a geographical-scale coexistence problem presents its own set of challenges, but building from a well-established body of theory may greatly improve the predictability of species persistence in competitive communities under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30187452, year = {2019}, author = {Coates, SJ and Davis, MDP and Andersen, LK}, title = {Temperature and humidity affect the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease: a systematic review of the literature - a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {58}, number = {4}, pages = {388-399}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.14188}, pmid = {30187452}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/*epidemiology ; Humans ; *Humidity ; Incidence ; Rain ; Societies, Medical ; Sunlight ; *Temperature ; Wind ; }, abstract = {Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-mediated condition that predominantly affects children under 5 years of age. The tendency for outbreaks to peak in warmer summer months suggests a relationship between HFMD and weather patterns. We reviewed the English-language literature for articles describing a relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD. Seventy-two studies meeting criteria were identified. A positive, statistically significant relationship was identified between HFMD cases and both temperature (61 of 67 studies, or 91.0%, reported a positive relationship) [CI 81.8-95.8%, P = 0.0001] and relative humidity (41 of 54 studies, or 75.9%) [CI 63.1-85.4%, P = 0.0001]. No significant relationship was identified between HFMD and precipitation, wind speed, and/or sunshine. Most countries reported a single peak of disease each year (most commonly early Summer), but subtropical and tropical climate zones were significantly more likely to experience a bimodal distribution of cases throughout the year (two peaks a year; most commonly late spring/early summer, with a smaller peak in autumn). The rising global incidence of HFMD, particularly in Pacific Asia, may be related to climate change. Weather forecasting might be used effectively in the future to indicate the risk of HFMD outbreaks and the need for targeted public health interventions.}, }
@article {pmid30187146, year = {2018}, author = {Smyth, CE and Smiley, BP and Magnan, M and Birdsey, R and Dugan, AJ and Olguin, M and Mascorro, VS and Kurz, WA}, title = {Climate change mitigation in Canada's forest sector: a spatially explicit case study for two regions.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {11}, pmid = {30187146}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: We determine the potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by changes in management practices and wood use for two regions within Canada's managed forest from 2018 to 2050. Our modeling frameworks include the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector, a framework for harvested wood products that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of marginal emission substitution benefits from the changes in use of wood products and bioenergy. Using a spatially explicit forest inventory with 16 ha pixels, we examine mitigation scenarios relating to forest management and wood use: increased harvesting efficiency; residue management for bioenergy; reduced harvest; reduced slashburning, and more longer-lived wood products. The primary reason for the spatially explicit approach at this coarse resolution was to estimate transportation distances associated with delivering harvest residues for heat and/or electricity production for local communities.<br><br>RESULTS: Results demonstrated large differences among alternative scenarios, and from alternative assumptions about substitution benefits for fossil fuel-based energy and products which changed scenario rankings. Combining forest management activities with a wood-use scenario that generated more longer-lived products had the highest mitigation potential.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The use of harvest residues to meet local energy demands in place of burning fossil fuels was found to be an effective scenario to reduce GHG emissions, along with scenarios that increased the utilization level for harvest, and increased the longevity of wood products. Substitution benefits from avoiding fossil fuels or emissions-intensive products were dependent on local circumstances for energy demand and fuel mix, and the assumed wood use for products. As projected future demand for biomass use in national GHG mitigation strategies could exceed sustainable biomass supply, analyses such as this can help identify biomass sources that achieve the greatest mitigation benefits.}, }
@article {pmid30182605, year = {2018}, author = {Li, HQ and Liu, XL and Wang, JH and Fu, YY and Ding, SM and Xie, WY and Zhang, J}, title = {[Influence of climate change on the suitable ranges for planting pickled mustard tuber in Chongqing.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {2651-2657}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201808.018}, pmid = {30182605}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Mustard Plant ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Pickled mustard tuber (Brassica juncea var. tumida) belonging to Cruciferae, is a unique economic crop in China. Climate is an important factor affecting the distribution of pickled mustard tuber. Based on species presence data at 279 locations and 22 high-resolution environmental factor layers, we analyzed the potential planting area of pickled mustard tuber in Chongqing by MaxEnt model under the current conditions and the future distributions for the periods 2050s and 2070s under the climate change scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that MaxEnt model was excellent in predicting its potential plan-ting area. The cumulative contributions of dominant factors reached as high as 81.7%, including precipitation of wettest month, temperature annual range, minimum temperature of coldest month, isothermality, mean diurnal range and average maximum temperature. The threshold of those factors was 173-183 mm, 27.2-28.3 ℃, 1.8-3.8 ℃, 22.5-24 ℃, 6.2-6.8 ℃ and 14.8-18.0 ℃, respectively. Under current condition, the optimum suitable areas of pickled mustard tuber, which amounted to 4.2%, were in the northeast, west and east of Fuling, the east and south of Changshou, the south and southeast of Dianjiang, the northwest and north of Fengdu, the southeast of Zhongxian, and a small part of Wulong and Nanchuan, while the proportion of moderately suitable areas was 6.3%. Under four climate change scenarios, the optimum suitable areas would drop to 2.7%, 3.8%, 3.1%, 3.2% and 3.1%, 3.7%, 3.5%, 2.9% for the periods 2050s and 2070s, respectively, while moderately suitable areas would rise gradually.}, }
@article {pmid30182168, year = {2018}, author = {Dugan, AJ and Birdsey, R and Mascorro, VS and Magnan, M and Smyth, CE and Olguin, M and Kurz, WA}, title = {A systems approach to assess climate change mitigation options in landscapes of the United States forest sector.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {13}, pmid = {30182168}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: United States forests can contribute to national strategies for greenhouse gas reductions. The objective of this work was to evaluate forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios from 2018 to 2050 by applying a systems-based approach that accounts for net emissions across four interdependent components: (1) forest ecosystem, (2) land-use change, (3) harvested wood products, and (4) substitution benefits from using wood products and bioenergy. We assessed a range of land management and harvested wood product scenarios for two case studies in the U.S: coastal South Carolina and Northern Wisconsin. We integrated forest inventory and remotely-sensed disturbance data within a modelling framework consisting of a growth-and-yield driven ecosystem carbon model; a harvested wood products model that estimates emissions from commodity production, use and post-consumer treatment; and displacement factors to estimate avoided fossil fuel emissions. We estimated biophysical mitigation potential by comparing net emissions from land management and harvested wood products scenarios with a baseline ('business as usual') scenario.<br><br>RESULTS: Baseline scenario results showed that the strength of the ecosystem carbon sink has been decreasing in the two sites due to age-related productivity declines and deforestation. Mitigation activities have the potential to lessen or delay the further reduction in the carbon sink. Results of the mitigation analysis indicated that scenarios reducing net forest area loss were most effective in South Carolina, while extending harvest rotations and increasing longer-lived wood products were most effective in Wisconsin. Scenarios aimed at increasing bioenergy use either increased or reduced net emissions within the 32-year analysis timeframe.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: It is critical to apply a systems approach to comprehensively assess net emissions from forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios. Although some scenarios produced a benefit by displacing emissions from fossil fuel energy or by substituting wood products for other materials, these benefits can be outweighed by increased carbon emissions in the forest or product systems. Maintaining forests as forests, extending rotations, and shifting commodities to longer-lived products had the strongest mitigation benefits over several decades. Carbon cycle impacts of bioenergy depend on timeframe, feedstocks, and alternative uses of biomass, and cannot be assumed carbon neutral.}, }
@article {pmid30181643, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Global warming tops the agenda as climate brings down a third Australian prime minister.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {561}, number = {7721}, pages = {5-6}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06164-z}, pmid = {30181643}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Australia ; Coral Reefs ; Droughts ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Federal Government ; *Global Warming/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control ; *Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid30181268, year = {2018}, author = {Krinner, G and Flanner, MG}, title = {Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {38}, pages = {9462-9466}, pmid = {30181268}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Because all climate models exhibit biases, their use for assessing future climate change requires implicitly assuming or explicitly postulating that the biases are stationary or vary predictably. This hypothesis, however, has not been, and cannot be, tested directly. This work shows that under very large climate change the bias patterns of key climate variables exhibit a striking degree of stationarity. Using only correlation with a model's preindustrial bias pattern, a model's 4xCO2 bias pattern is objectively and correctly identified among a large model ensemble in almost all cases. This outcome would be exceedingly improbable if bias patterns were independent of climate state. A similar result is also found for bias patterns in two historical periods. This provides compelling and heretofore missing justification for using such models to quantify climate perturbation patterns and for selecting well-performing models for regional downscaling. Furthermore, it opens the way to extending bias corrections to perturbed states, substantially broadening the range of justified applications of climate models.}, }
@article {pmid30180761, year = {2019}, author = {Phillips, C and Lipman, GS and Gugelmann, H and Doering, K and Lung, D}, title = {Snakebites and climate change in California, 1997-2017.}, journal = {Clinical toxicology (Philadelphia, Pa.)}, volume = {57}, number = {3}, pages = {168-174}, doi = {10.1080/15563650.2018.1508690}, pmid = {30180761}, issn = {1556-9519}, mesh = {Adult ; California/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Poison Control Centers ; Retrospective Studies ; Seasons ; Snake Bites/*epidemiology ; Temperature ; Treatment Outcome ; Weather ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change effect on flora and fauna has been scientifically documented, but the effect on North American venomous snakebites is unknown. The objectives were to examine Californian snakebite incidence and correlate with weather patterns and climate changes.<br><br>METHODS: A retrospective analysis of snakebites reported to the Californian Poison Control System from 1 September 1997 to 30 September 2017. Venomous snakebite reports were aggregated by caller zip code, and correlated per county with weather data, air temperature, precipitation, population data, eco-regions, and land characteristics. Time series decomposition by seasonality and trend, regression, and autocorrelation were used to assess association between climate variables and incidence.<br><br>RESULTS: There were 5365 reported venomous snakebites during the study period, with a median age of 37 years (22-51) with 76% male (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;.001, 95% CI 75.6-77.9%). Most snakebite outcomes were coded as minor (1363, 25%) or moderate (2607, 49%), with three deaths. Adjusted for population, the annualized incidence of snakebites statewide slightly decreased (rho&#x2009;=&#x2009;-0.11, p&#x2009;=&#x2009;.65). The snakebite incidence per million people rose after a period of no drought and declined during drought (r&#x2009;=&#x2009;-0.41, p&#x2009;&#x226a;&#x2009;.01). Snakebite incidence decreased by 6-month prior drought (-3.8% for each 10% increase in drought), and increased by 18-month prior precipitation (+3.9% for each 10% increase in precipitation).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of precipitation and drought had a significant and predictive effect on snakebites in California over a 20-year period. Snakebite incidence decreased following drought, and increased after precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid30180357, year = {2019}, author = {Longyang, Q}, title = {Assessing the effects of climate change on water quality of plateau deep-water lake - A study case of Hongfeng Lake.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {647}, number = {}, pages = {1518-1530}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.031}, pmid = {30180357}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change-related temperature increases and sea level rise have a significant impact on the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere. Impacts on ecosystems will mostly occur over the long term and short-term effects may consequently attract comparatively less attention from researchers and decision-makers. In this study, we investigate eight meteorological factors and eleven water quality indicators of deep-water lakes in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in southwestern China. A robust proxy model based on a seven-year dataset (2010-2016) was established to predict the effects of climate change on water quality in Hongfeng Lake over the coming years. Perturbation analysis revealed that global warming has a more significant effect on chlorophyll a levels than on total phosphorus or total nitrogen in the lake area, and that external nutrient loading is a key factor aggravating eutrophication. Non-point source pollution induced by heavy precipitation will likely lead to an increase in total nitrogen and the lake may become more phosphorus-restricted. Reducing external inputs and controlling endogenous releases will help alleviate eutrophication.}, }
@article {pmid30180331, year = {2019}, author = {Zhou, Y and Hartemink, AE and Shi, Z and Liang, Z and Lu, Y}, title = {Land use and climate change effects on soil organic carbon in North and Northeast China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {647}, number = {}, pages = {1230-1238}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.016}, pmid = {30180331}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Soil is recognized as the largest carbon reservoir in the terrestrial ecosystem. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is vulnerable to changes in land use and climate. For a better understanding of the SOC dynamics and its driving factors, we collected data of the 1980s and 2000s in the North and Northeast China and conducted the digital soil mapping for spatial variation of SOC for the respective period. In the 1980s, 585 soils were sampled and the area was resampled in 2003 and 2004 (1062 samples) in a 30-km grid. The main land use in the area was cropland, forest and grassland. The random forest was used to predict the SOC concentration and its temporal change using land use, terrain factors, vegetation index, vis-NIR spectra and climate factors as predictors. The average SOC concentration in 1985 was 10.0 g kg[-1] compared to 12.5 g kg[-1] in 2004. The SOC variation was similar over the two periods, and levels increased from south to north. The estimated SOC stock was 1.68 Pg in 1985 and 1.66 Pg in 2004, but the SOC changes were different under different land uses. Over the twenty-year period, average temperatures increased and large areas of forests and grassland were converted to cropland. SOC under cropland was increased by 0.094 Pg (+9%) whereas 0.089 Pg SOC was lost under forests (-25%) and 0.037 Pg in the soils under grassland (-25%). It is concluded that land use is the main drivers for SOC changes in this area while climate change had different contributions in different regions. SOC loss was remarkable under the land use conversion while cropland has considerable potential to sequester SOC.}, }
@article {pmid30179545, year = {2018}, author = {Tuller, D}, title = {Confronting The Effects Of Climate Change On Health In California.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {37}, number = {9}, pages = {1354-1357}, doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2018.0942}, pmid = {30179545}, issn = {1544-5208}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; California ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Vulnerable communities have been forced to address the deepening impact of severe weather events on residents' well-being.}, }
@article {pmid30179479, year = {2018}, author = {Anderson, CM and Kissel, KA and Field, CB and Mach, KJ}, title = {Climate Change Mitigation, Air Pollution, and Environmental Justice in California.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {52}, number = {18}, pages = {10829-10838}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.8b00908}, pmid = {30179479}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; California ; Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Particulate Matter ; }, abstract = {Climate change mitigation policies can have significant co-benefits for air quality, including benefits to disadvantaged communities experiencing substantial air pollution. However, the effects of these mitigation policies have rarely been evaluated with respect to their influence on disadvantaged communities. Here we assess the air pollution and environmental justice implications of California's cap-and-trade mitigation program through analysis of (1) the sources of air pollution in disadvantaged communities, (2) emissions-reduction offset usage under the cap-and-trade program, and (3) the relationship between reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and reductions in co-pollutant emissions. Our analysis suggests that the cap-and-trade program has limited impacts, including limited disproportionate impacts, on air quality in disadvantaged communities. The sources of most air pollution in these communities have not been subject to the cap-and-trade program, and the use of emissions-reduction offsets is only marginally higher in disadvantaged communities than in other communities. Furthermore, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions imply smaller proportional reductions in co-pollutant emissions. While climate policies lead to important air quality co-benefits in some contexts, especially through reduced coal usage, targeted air quality policies and regulations may be more effective for reducing air pollution in disadvantaged communities in California and throughout the state.}, }
@article {pmid30177567, year = {2018}, author = {Foster, GL and Hull, P and Lunt, DJ and Zachos, JC}, title = {Placing our current 'hyperthermal' in the context of rapid climate change in our geological past.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {2130}, pages = {}, pmid = {30177567}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {'…there are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.' Donald Rumsfeld 12th February 2002.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.}, }
@article {pmid30177247, year = {2018}, author = {Rifkin, DI and Long, MW and Perry, MJ}, title = {Climate change and sleep: A systematic review of the literature and conceptual framework.}, journal = {Sleep medicine reviews}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {3-9}, doi = {10.1016/j.smrv.2018.07.007}, pmid = {30177247}, issn = {1532-2955}, support = {R21 ES028124/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; Floods ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Sleep/*physiology ; Sleep Deprivation/*psychology ; }, abstract = {From disaster related stress causing insomnia, to poor air quality causing sleep related breathing problems, climate change poses a potentially serious threat to human sleep. We conducted a systematic review evaluating the relationship between climate change and human sleep in the PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane databases from 1980 through 2017 following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Inclusion criteria included epidemiologic studies published in English that reported observational population data on human sleep and its relationship to climate change, temperature, extreme weather events and climate related disasters (e.g. hurricanes, floods, and wildfires). We excluded non-human studies, laboratory or experimental physiology studies, commentaries or letters, review articles, and articles on wind turbines. Using a systematic search strategy, 16 studies met the inclusion criteria. Six studies related to the effects of rising temperature, seven studies related to extreme weather events, and three studies related to floods or wildfires. Diminished total sleep times and sleep disruption were most commonly reported, especially among the most vulnerable populations including the elderly and low-income; however, the body of evidence was limited and further well-designed human studies are clearly needed. We present a conceptual framework for identifying the emerging threats of climate change and understanding their respective effects on human sleep.}, }
@article {pmid30177006, year = {2018}, author = {Anglaret, X}, title = {I would prefer not to aggravate global warming.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {e382-e383}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30171-2}, pmid = {30177006}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Choice Behavior ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid30177000, year = {2018}, author = {Shultz, JM and Kossin, JP and Ettman, C and Kinney, PL and Galea, S}, title = {The 2017 perfect storm season, climate change, and environmental injustice.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {e370-e371}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30168-2}, pmid = {30177000}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Humans ; Seasons ; *Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid30176471, year = {2019}, author = {Hoang, LP and van Vliet, MTH and Kummu, M and Lauri, H and Koponen, J and Supit, I and Leemans, R and Kabat, P and Ludwig, F}, title = {The Mekong's future flows under multiple drivers: How climate change, hydropower developments and irrigation expansions drive hydrological changes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {649}, number = {}, pages = {601-609}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.160}, pmid = {30176471}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The river flow regime and water resources are highly important for economic growths, flood security, and ecosystem dynamics in the Mekong basin - an important transboundary river basin in South East Asia. The river flow, although remains relatively unregulated, is expected to be increasingly perturbed by climate change and rapidly accelerating socioeconomic developments. Current understanding about hydrological changes under the combined impacts of these drivers, however, remains limited. This study presents projected hydrological changes caused by multiple drivers, namely climate change, large-scale hydropower developments, and irrigated land expansions by 2050s. We found that the future flow regime is highly susceptible to all considered drivers, shown by substantial changes in both annual and seasonal flow distribution. While hydropower developments exhibit limited impacts on annual total flows, climate change and irrigation expansions cause changes of +15% and -3% in annual flows, respectively. However, hydropower developments show the largest seasonal impacts characterized by higher dry season flows (up to +70%) and lower wet season flows (-15%). These strong seasonal impacts tend to outplay those of the other drivers, resulting in the overall hydrological change pattern of strong increases of the dry season flow (up to +160%); flow reduction in the first half of the wet season (up to -25%); and slight flow increase in the second half of the wet season (up to 40%). Furthermore, the cumulative impacts of all drivers cause substantial flow reductions during the early wet season (up to -25% in July), posing challenges for crop production and saltwater intrusion in the downstream Mekong Delta. Substantial flow changes and their consequences require careful considerations of future development activities, as well as timely adaptation to future changes.}, }
@article {pmid30176458, year = {2019}, author = {Deligios, PA and Chergia, AP and Sanna, G and Solinas, S and Todde, G and Narvarte, L and Ledda, L}, title = {Climate change adaptation and water saving by innovative irrigation management applied on open field globe artichoke.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {649}, number = {}, pages = {461-472}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.349}, pmid = {30176458}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Agricultural Irrigation/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Cynara scolymus/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Italy ; }, abstract = {The setting up of innovative irrigation water management might contribute to the mitigation of negative issues related to climate change. Our hypothesis was that globe artichoke irrigated with a traditionally drip system could be converted to an innovative water management system based on precision irrigation techniques and on evaporative cooling application in order to improve crop physiological status with positive impacts on earliness, total heads yield and water saving. Over two experiments carried out at plot- and field-scale, two irrigation management systems, differing in type and application time, were compared: (i) conventional, and (ii) canopy-cooling. Plant physiological status at a weekly sampling interval and the head atrophy incidence (as the ratio of the total primary heads collected) were monitored. We also recorded and determined heads production, and yield components. In both experiments, throughout the application period of evaporative cooling (three months), canopy-cooling showed the lowest value of leaf temperature and the highest photosynthesis values compared with the conventional one (+3 °C and -30%, respectively). The physiological advantage gained by the crop with evaporative cooling has led to a higher production both in terms of total yield (+30%), and in terms of harvested first order heads that from an economic viewpoint are the most profitable for farmers. At farm-scale, the canopy-cooling treatment resulted in a higher earliness (35 days) and water productivity (+36%) compared with conventional one. Our findings show that by combining evaporative cooling practice with precision irrigation technique the heads yield can be optimized also leading to a relevant water saving (-34%). Moreover, the study proved that canopy-cooling set up might be a winning strategy in order to mitigate climatic changes and heat stress conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30173951, year = {2018}, author = {Nogués-Bravo, D and Rodríguez-Sánchez, F and Orsini, L and de Boer, E and Jansson, R and Morlon, H and Fordham, DA and Jackson, ST}, title = {Cracking the Code of Biodiversity Responses to Past Climate Change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {33}, number = {10}, pages = {765-776}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2018.07.005}, pmid = {30173951}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {How individual species and entire ecosystems will respond to future climate change are among the most pressing questions facing ecologists. Past biodiversity dynamics recorded in the paleoecological archives show a broad array of responses, yet significant knowledge gaps remain. In particular, the relative roles of evolutionary adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, and dispersal in promoting survival during times of climate change have yet to be clarified. Investigating the paleo-archives offers great opportunities to understand biodiversity responses to future climate change. In this review we discuss the mechanisms by which biodiversity responds to environmental change, and identify gaps of knowledge on the role of range shifts and tolerance. We also outline approaches at the intersection of paleoecology, genomics, experiments, and predictive models that will elucidate the processes by which species have survived past climatic changes and enhance predictions of future changes in biological diversity.}, }
@article {pmid30173057, year = {2018}, author = {Schmidt, A and Creason, W and Law, BE}, title = {Estimating regional effects of climate change and altered land use on biosphere carbon fluxes using distributed time delay neural networks with Bayesian regularized learning.}, journal = {Neural networks : the official journal of the International Neural Network Society}, volume = {108}, number = {}, pages = {97-113}, doi = {10.1016/j.neunet.2018.08.004}, pmid = {30173057}, issn = {1879-2782}, mesh = {Atmosphere/analysis ; Bayes Theorem ; Carbon/analysis ; *Carbon Cycle ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Machine Learning/trends ; Models, Theoretical ; *Neural Networks, Computer ; Oregon ; }, abstract = {The ability to accurately predict changes of the carbon and energy balance on a regional scale is of great importance for assessing the effect of land use changes on carbon sequestration under future climate conditions. Here, a suite of land cover-specific Distributed Time Delay Neural Networks with a parameter adoption algorithm optimized through Bayesian regularization was used to model the statewide atmospheric exchange of CO2, water vapor, and energy in Oregon with its strong spatial gradients of climate and land cover. The network models were trained with eddy covariance data from 9 atmospheric flux towers. Compared to results derived with more common regression networks utilizing non-delayed input vectors, the performance of the DTDNN models was significantly improved with an average increase of the coefficients of determination of 64%. The optimized models were applied in combination with downscaled climate projections of the CMIP5 project to calculate future changes in the cycle of carbon, associated with a prescribed conversion of conventional grass-crops to hybrid poplar plantations for biofuel production in Oregon. The results show that under future RCP8.5 climate conditions the total statewide NEP increases by 0.87 TgC per decade until 2050 without any land use changes. With all non-forage grass completely converted to hybrid poplar the NEP averages 32.9 TgC in 2046-2050, an increase of 9%. Through comparisons with the results of a Bayesians inversion study, the results presented demonstrate that DTDNN models are a specifically well-suited approach to use the available data from flux networks to assess changes in biosphere-atmosphere exchange triggered by massive land use conversion superimposed on a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid30172574, year = {2018}, author = {Lilienfeld, E and Nicholas, PK and Breakey, S and Corless, IB}, title = {Addressing climate change through a nursing lens within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.}, journal = {Nursing outlook}, volume = {66}, number = {5}, pages = {482-494}, doi = {10.1016/j.outlook.2018.06.010}, pmid = {30172574}, issn = {1528-3968}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Nursing Services/*trends ; Sustainable Development/*trends ; United Nations/organization &amp; administration/trends ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In 2000, the United Nations (UN) introduced the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), described as a global movement with the primary aim of ending world-wide poverty ("Millennium Summit," 2000). The second phase of the project, known as the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) agenda offers an increased emphasis on lessening the mitigating factors associated with climate change and adapting to the negative effects of climate change. Nurses are in the unique position to address the health-related impacts related to climate change through community health approaches aimed at education and promotion of environmental stewardship.<br><br>PURPOSE: The purpose of this scoping review was to examine the relationships among the health consequences of climate change, nursing literature on climate change, and nursing implications. The following will be addressed: "What is nursing's role in policy, practice, and advocacy when addressing the effects of climate change? What is the importance of the SDGs as a framework for addressing climate change in the role of nursing?"<br><br>METHOD: This scoping review of the literature was conducted which included the evaluation of a broad range of articles using scoping methods as frameworks.<br><br>FINDINGS: An overarching theme regarding the nursing community's responsibility in addressing the effects of climate change and their role as advocates, educators, and global citizens was extracted from the scoping review.<br><br>DISCUSSION: There are many opportunities for nurses to become actively involved in efforts aimed at mitigation, adaptation, and resilience efforts in climate change, including becoming involved in policy, advocacy, research, and practice opportunities.}, }
@article {pmid30168745, year = {2018}, author = {Ramanathan, V and Samet, J and Neira, M and Sorondo, MS}, title = {Air Pollution, Climate Change, and Health: A Declaration from the Vatican.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {1027-1029}, doi = {10.1513/AnnalsATS.201805-319ED}, pmid = {30168745}, issn = {2325-6621}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Academies and Institutes ; *Air Pollution ; *Catholicism ; *Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; Ecosystem ; Education ; *Environmental Policy ; Evidence-Based Practice ; *Health ; Humans ; Religious Personnel ; }, }
@article {pmid30168388, year = {2018}, author = {Krause, MJ}, title = {Intergovernmental panel on climate change's landfill methane protocol: Reviewing 20 years of application.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {36}, number = {9}, pages = {827-840}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X18793935}, pmid = {30168388}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants ; Climate Change ; Methane ; *Refuse Disposal ; Waste Disposal Facilities ; Wood ; }, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) protocol for predicting national methane emission inventories from landfills was published 22 years ago in the 1996 Revised Guidelines. There currently exists a broad dataset to review landfill parameters and reported values and their appropriateness in use and application in a range of site-specific, regional, and national estimates. Degradable organic carbon (DOC) content was found to range from 0.0105 to 0.65 g C/g waste, with an average of 0.166 g C/g waste. The fraction of DOC that would anaerobically degrade (DOC f) was reported to range from 50-83%, whereas higher and lower values have been experimentally determined for a variety of waste components, such as wood (0-50%) and food waste (50-75%). Where field validation occurred for the methane correction factor, values were substantially lower than defaults. The fraction of methane in anaerobic landfill gas (F) default of 50% is almost universally applied and is appropriate for cellulosic wastes. The methane generation rate constant (k) varied widely from 0.01 to 0.51 y[-1], representing half-lives from 1 to 69 years. Methane oxidation (OX) default values of 0 and 10% may be valid, but values greater than 30% have been reported for porous covers at managed sites. The IPCC protocol is a practical tool with uncertainties and limitations that must be addressed when used for purposes other than developing inventories.}, }
@article {pmid30167455, year = {2018}, author = {Gaines, SD and Costello, C and Owashi, B and Mangin, T and Bone, J and Molinos, JG and Burden, M and Dennis, H and Halpern, BS and Kappel, CV and Kleisner, KM and Ovando, D}, title = {Improved fisheries management could offset many negative effects of climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {8}, pages = {eaao1378}, pmid = {30167455}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries/*standards/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fishes/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The world's oceans supply food and livelihood to billions of people, yet species' shifting geographic ranges and changes in productivity arising from climate change are expected to profoundly affect these benefits. We ask how improvements in fishery management can offset the negative consequences of climate change; we find that the answer hinges on the current status of stocks. The poor current status of many stocks combined with potentially maladaptive responses to range shifts could reduce future global fisheries yields and profits even more severely than previous estimates have suggested. However, reforming fisheries in ways that jointly fix current inefficiencies, adapt to fisheries productivity changes, and proactively create effective transboundary institutions could lead to a future with higher profits and yields compared to what is produced today.}, }
@article {pmid30166779, year = {2018}, author = {Babaie, J and Barati, M and Azizi, M and Ephtekhari, A and Sadat, SJ}, title = {A systematic evidence review of the effect of climate change on malaria in Iran.}, journal = {Journal of parasitic diseases : official organ of the Indian Society for Parasitology}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {331-340}, pmid = {30166779}, issn = {0971-7196}, abstract = {Climate is an effective factor in the ecological structure which plays an important role in control and outbreak of the diseases caused by biological factors like malaria. With regard to the occurring climatic change, this study aimed to review the effects of climate change on malaria in Iran. In this systematic review, Cochrane, PubMed and ScienceDirect (as international databases), SID and Magiran as Persian databases were investigated through MESH keywords including climate change, global warming, malaria, Anopheles, and Iran. The related articles were screened and finally their results were extracted using data extraction sheets. Totally 41 papers were resulted through databases searching process. Finally 14 papers which met inclusion criteria were included in data extraction stage. The findings indicated that Anopheles mosquitoes are present at least in 115 places in Iran; they are compatible with climatic zones of Iran. Malaria and it's vectors are affected by climate change. Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind intensity and direction are the most important climatic factors affecting the growth and proliferation of Anopheles, Plasmodium and the prevalence of malaria. The transmission of malaria in Iran is associated with the climatic factors of temperature, rainfall, and humidity. Therefore, with regard to the occurring climatic change, the incidence of the disease may also change which needs to be taken into consideration while planning of malaria control.}, }
@article {pmid30166778, year = {2018}, author = {Van Lange, PAM and Joireman, J and Milinski, M}, title = {Climate Change: What Psychology Can Offer in Terms of Insights and Solutions.}, journal = {Current directions in psychological science}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {269-274}, pmid = {30166778}, issn = {0963-7214}, abstract = {Can psychological science offer evidence-based solutions to climate change? Using insights and principles derived from the literature on social dilemmas and human cooperation, we discuss evidence in support of three solutions: crossing the borders of thought, time, and space. First, borders of thought could be crossed by using persuasion that is concrete and tailored to local circumstances and by highlighting information about people's efforts as evidence against the myth of self-interest. Second, borders of time could be crossed by using kinship cues, which can help make the future less distant, and relatively uninvolved advisors, who may help make the future salient. And third, borders of space could be crossed by showing group representatives how they might benefit from a frame of altruistic competition-focusing on the benefits of being seen as moral and global in orientation. Our overall conclusion is that psychological science can offer evidence-based solutions to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30166491, year = {2018}, author = {Nolan, C and Overpeck, JT and Allen, JRM and Anderson, PM and Betancourt, JL and Binney, HA and Brewer, S and Bush, MB and Chase, BM and Cheddadi, R and Djamali, M and Dodson, J and Edwards, ME and Gosling, WD and Haberle, S and Hotchkiss, SC and Huntley, B and Ivory, SJ and Kershaw, AP and Kim, SH and Latorre, C and Leydet, M and Lézine, AM and Liu, KB and Liu, Y and Lozhkin, AV and McGlone, MS and Marchant, RA and Momohara, A and Moreno, PI and Müller, S and Otto-Bliesner, BL and Shen, C and Stevenson, J and Takahara, H and Tarasov, PE and Tipton, J and Vincens, A and Weng, C and Xu, Q and Zheng, Z and Jackson, ST}, title = {Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {361}, number = {6405}, pages = {920-923}, doi = {10.1126/science.aan5360}, pmid = {30166491}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid30161113, year = {2018}, author = {Bennett, H and King, P}, title = {Pro-equity climate change and environmental sustainability action by district health boards in Aotearoa/New Zealand.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {131}, number = {1481}, pages = {56-63}, pmid = {30161113}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Food Supply ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Gases ; Health Policy ; Health Priorities ; Healthcare Disparities ; Humans ; New Zealand ; Renewable Energy ; Travel ; }, abstract = {AIM: With current health ministerial directives to prioritise actions on reducing health inequities and district health board (DHB) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, we argue that all climate change and environmental sustainability actions by DHBs must be pro-equity, and explore how the two priorities can be addressed concurrently.<br><br>METHOD: Building on prior knowledge of climate change and environmental sustainability action in the health and disability sector, we undertook a visioning exercise to generate ideas for pro-equity GHG emissions reduction initiatives in the DHB context. Visioning was further informed by presentation and feedback discussion at an Annual Scientific Meeting of the New Zealand College of Public Health Medicine.<br><br>RESULTS: Three scenarios were envisioned in the areas of DHB energy use, transport and procurement where GHG emissions could be reduced, and health determinants and outcomes for M&#x101;ori and Pacific peoples improved.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Current ministerial directives to address both health inequities and DHB greenhouse gas emissions present DHBs with the opportunity to ensure they systematically address both priorities at the same time. In doing so, Aotearoa/New Zealand has the potential to lead the world in demonstrating pro-equity climate change and sustainability action in health systems.}, }
@article {pmid30160697, year = {2017}, author = {Maksimovic, Z and Cornwell, MS and Semren, O and Rifatbegovic, M}, title = {The apparent role of climate change in a recent anthrax outbreak in cattle.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {959-963}, doi = {10.20506/rst.36.3.2727}, pmid = {30160697}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthrax/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Bacillus anthracis/isolation &amp; purification ; Bosnia and Herzegovina/epidemiology ; Cattle ; Cattle Diseases/epidemiology/*microbiology ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks/*veterinary ; }, abstract = {An anthrax outbreak recently occurred in cattle in a region that had previously been free of the disease for more than two decades. This event followed heavy springtime rains that had caused flooding, and a hot, dry summer. These temporally connected events may indicate a new link between climate change and an increased incidence of bacterial diseases with environmental reservoirs.}, }
@article {pmid30159651, year = {2018}, author = {Limaye, VS and Vargo, J and Harkey, M and Holloway, T and Patz, JA}, title = {Climate Change and Heat-Related Excess Mortality in the Eastern USA.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {485-496}, pmid = {30159651}, issn = {1612-9210}, support = {R21 ES020232/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; 1R21ES020232-01/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Cause of Death/*trends ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Forecasting ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Humans ; Infrared Rays/*adverse effects ; Public Health/*trends ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change will increase extreme heat-related health risks. To quantify the health impacts of mid-century climate change, we assess heat-related excess mortality across the eastern USA. Health risks are estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Mid-century temperature estimates, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, are compared to 2007 temperatures at 36 km and 12 km resolutions. Models indicate the average apparent and actual summer temperatures rise by 4.5° and 3.3° C, respectively. Warmer average apparent temperatures could cause 11,562 additional annual deaths (95% confidence interval, CI: 2641-20,095) due to cardiovascular stress in the population aged 65 years and above, while higher minimum temperatures could cause 8767 (95% CI: 5030-12,475) additional deaths each year. Modeled future climate data available at both coarse (36 km) and fine (12 km) resolutions predict significant human health impacts from warmer climates. The findings suggest that currently available information on future climates is sufficient to guide regional planning for the protection of public health. Higher resolution climate and demographic data are still needed to inform more targeted interventions.}, }
@article {pmid30159527, year = {2017}, author = {Entwisle, TJ and Cole, C and Symes, P}, title = {Adapting the botanical landscape of Melbourne Gardens (Royal Botanic Gardens Victoria) in response to climate change.}, journal = {Plant diversity}, volume = {39}, number = {6}, pages = {338-347}, pmid = {30159527}, issn = {2468-2659}, abstract = {Botanic gardens around the world maintain collections of living plants for science, conservation, education, beauty and more. These collections change over time - in scope and content - but the predicted impacts of climate change will require a more strategic approach to the succession of plant species and their landscapes. Royal Botanic Gardens Victoria has recently published a 'Landscape Succession Strategy' for its Melbourne Gardens, a spectacular botanical landscape established in 1846. The strategy recognizes that with 1.6 million visitors each year, responsibility for a heritage-listed landscape and the need to care for a collection of 8500 plant species of conservation and scientific importance, planting and planning must take into account anticipated changes to rainfall and temperature. The trees we plant today must be suitable for the climate of the twenty-second century. Specifically, the Strategy sets out the steps needed over the next twenty years to transition the botanic garden to one resilient to the climate modelled for 2090. The document includes a range of practical measures and achievable (and at times somewhat aspirational) targets. Climate analogues will be used to identify places in Australia and elsewhere with conditions today similar to those predicted for Melbourne in 2090, to help select new species for the collection. Modelling of the natural and cultivated distribution of species will be used to help select suitable growth forms to replace existing species of high value or interest. Improved understanding of temperature gradients within the botanic garden, water holding capacity of soils and plant water use behaviour is already resulting in better targeted planting and irrigation. The goal is to retain a similar diversity of species but transition the collection so that by 2036 at least 75% of the species are suitable for the climate in 2090. Over the next few years we hope to provide 100% of irrigation water from sustainable water sources, and infrastructure will be improved to adapt to predicted higher temperatures and more climatic extremes. At all times there will be a strong focus on assisting the broader community in their response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30157226, year = {2018}, author = {Martínez-Jauregui, M and Serra-Varela, MJ and Díaz, M and Soliño, M}, title = {Mitigation strategies for conserving bird diversity under climate change scenarios in Europe: The role of forest naturalization.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e0202009}, pmid = {30157226}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Biomass ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Endangered Species ; *Forests ; }, abstract = {There are many possible strategies to promote naturalization in anthropogenic landscapes to mitigate global change effects. We combined large-scale databases available for continental Spain on: (1) distribution of breeding birds, (2) forest inventory stands, (3) land-use cover, (4) 18 global climate models recently developed at local scales, and (5) historical and genetically-based information on the distribution of natural versus planted pine forests, to analyze whether back to nature strategies may help to mitigate biodiversity loss due to climate change. We performed the analysis along environmental and ecological gradients of pine forests in Southern Europe. Models suggested that, naturalization strategies, in this case defined by the replacement of planted pine forests and eucalyptus forests by natural pine forests, could help to mitigate the expected loss of bird diversity due to climate change, but that mitigation efficiency will vary along environmental and ecological gradients. Maximum levels of diversity mitigation were predicted at intermediate levels of naturalization, with lower bird richness in areas where all pine forests were either planted or naturalized. Efficiency also varied spatially, given that both cold- and hot-spots of climate-driven bird diversity loss were identified. Transforming planted forest into natural forest is not a mitigation panacea, and additional regionally-adapted strategies may be identified to mitigate the expected biodiversity loss in forest ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid30156484, year = {2018}, author = {Walker, JT}, title = {The influence of climate change on waterborne disease and Legionella: a review.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {138}, number = {5}, pages = {282-286}, doi = {10.1177/1757913918791198}, pmid = {30156484}, issn = {1757-9147}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Legionella/isolation &amp; purification ; Legionnaires' Disease/*epidemiology ; Temperature ; Waterborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to have a major impact on people's lives with the recent extreme weather events and varying abnormal temperature profiles across the world raising concerns. The impacts of global warming are already being observed, from rising sea levels and melting snow and ice to changing weather patterns. Scientists state unequivocally that these trends cannot be explained by natural variability in climate alone. Human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels, have warmed the earth by dramatically increasing concentrations of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere; as these concentrations increase, the more the earth will warm. Climate change and related extreme weather events are being exacerbated sooner than has previously been considered and are already adversely affecting ecosystems and human health by increasing the burden and type of disease at a local level. Changes to the marine environment and freshwater supplies already affect significant parts of the world's population and warmer temperatures, especially in more temperate regions, may see an increased spread and transmission of diseases usually associated with warmer climes including, for example, cholera and malaria; these impacts are likely to become more severe in a greater number of countries. This review discusses the impacts of climate change including changes in infectious disease transmission, patterns of waterborne diseases and the likely consequences of climate change due to warmer water, drought, higher rainfall, rising sea levels and flooding.}, }
@article {pmid30155993, year = {2018}, author = {Bigot, S and Buges, J and Gilly, L and Jacques, C and Le Boulch, P and Berger, M and Delcros, P and Domergue, JB and Koehl, A and Ley-Ngardigal, B and Tran Van Canh, L and Couée, I}, title = {Pivotal roles of environmental sensing and signaling mechanisms in plant responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {12}, pages = {5573-5589}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14433}, pmid = {30155993}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/genetics ; }, abstract = {Climate change reshapes the physiology and development of organisms through phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic modifications, and genetic adaptation. Under evolutionary pressures of the sessile lifestyle, plants possess efficient systems of phenotypic plasticity and acclimation to environmental conditions. Molecular analysis, especially through omics approaches, of these primary lines of environmental adjustment in the context of climate change has revealed the underlying biochemical and physiological mechanisms, thus characterizing the links between phenotypic plasticity and climate change responses. The efficiency of adaptive plasticity under climate change indeed depends on the realization of such biochemical and physiological mechanisms, but the importance of sensing and signaling mechanisms that can integrate perception of environmental cues and transduction into physiological responses is often overlooked. Recent progress opens the possibility of considering plant phenotypic plasticity and responses to climate change through the perspective of environmental sensing and signaling. This review aims to analyze present knowledge on plant sensing and signaling mechanisms and discuss how their structural and functional characteristics lead to resilience or hypersensitivity under conditions of climate change. Plant cells are endowed with arrays of environmental and stress sensors and with internal signals that act as molecular integrators of the multiple constraints of climate change, thus giving rise to potential mechanisms of climate change sensing. Moreover, mechanisms of stress-related information propagation lead to stress memory and acquired stress tolerance that could withstand different scenarios of modifications of stress frequency and intensity. However, optimal functioning of existing sensors, optimal integration of additive constraints and signals, or memory processes can be hampered by conflicting interferences between novel combinations and novel changes in intensity and duration of climate change-related factors. Analysis of these contrasted situations emphasizes the need for future research on the diversity and robustness of plant signaling mechanisms under climate change conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30154576, year = {2018}, author = {Piñeiro-Corbeira, C and Barreiro, R and Cremades, J and Arenas, F}, title = {Seaweed assemblages under a climate change scenario: Functional responses to temperature of eight intertidal seaweeds match recent abundance shifts.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {12978}, pmid = {30154576}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Cell Respiration ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Photosynthesis ; *Seawater ; Seaweed/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Field evidence is essential to assess the consequences of climate change but a solid causal link often requires additional information obtained under controlled laboratory conditions. Additionally, the functional response to temperature may also help to discriminate species potentially more vulnerable to warming. Using a highly resolved temperature gradient, we examined the temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration in eight intertidal seaweeds that recently followed opposite abundance trends in NW Iberia. The temperature dependence of photosynthesis was consistently different between the macroalgae that increased and those that decreased their abundance in the last decade and a half, with photosynthesis twice more sensitive in the upward group. Unlike photosynthesis, the temperature dependence of respiration was unrelated to the abundance trend group, implying that the net metabolic scaling with temperature varied between the two groups of seaweeds. Overall, our results provide experimental support to the role of temperate as a likely driver of the changes in abundance recorded by field-monitoring studies. They also suggest that the temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration assessed in short-term experiments may serve as a biomarker of the potential vulnerability of some seaweed to the consequences of water warming.}, }
@article {pmid30154536, year = {2018}, author = {Reardon, S}, title = {Trump's science-adviser pick hedges on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7720}, pages = {536-537}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06019-7}, pmid = {30154536}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Federal Government ; Meteorology ; *Politics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid30153361, year = {2018}, author = {Sigdel, SR and Wang, Y and Camarero, JJ and Zhu, H and Liang, E and Peñuelas, J}, title = {Moisture-mediated responsiveness of treeline shifts to global warming in the Himalayas.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5549-5559}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14428}, pmid = {30153361}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {ERC-SyG-2013-610028//European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; *Global Warming ; Nepal ; *Plant Dispersal ; *Rain ; Time Factors ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Among forest ecosystems, the alpine treeline ecotone can be considered to be a simplified model to study global ecology and climate change. Alpine treelines are expected to shift upwards in response to global warming given that tree recruitment and growth are assumed to be mainly limited by low temperatures. However, little is known whether precipitation and temperature interact to drive long-term Himalayan treeline dynamics. Tree growth is affected by spring rainfall in the central Himalayan treelines, being good locations for testing if, in addition to temperature, precipitation mediates treeline dynamics. To test this hypothesis, we reconstructed spatiotemporal variations in treeline dynamics in 20 plots located at six alpine treeline sites, dominated by two tree species (birch, fir), and situated along an east-west precipitation gradient in the central Himalayas. Our reconstructions evidenced that treelines shifted upward in response to recent climate warming, but their shift rates were primarily mediated by spring precipitation. The rate of upward shift was higher in the wettest eastern Himalayas, suggesting that its ascent rate was facilitated by spring precipitation. The drying tendency in association with the recent warming trends observed in the central Himalayas, however, will likely hinder an upslope advancement of alpine treelines and promote downward treeline shifts if moisture availability crosses a critical minimum threshold. Our study highlights the complexity of plant responses to climate and the need to consider multiple climate factors when analyzing treeline dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid30152470, year = {2017}, author = {Baylis, M and Caminade, C and Turner, J and Jones, AE}, title = {The role of climate change in a developing threat: the case of bluetongue in Europe.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {467-478}, doi = {10.20506/rst.36.2.2667}, pmid = {30152470}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; Bluetongue/*epidemiology/transmission ; Bluetongue virus/*physiology ; Ceratopogonidae/*physiology/virology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/transmission/veterinary/virology ; Disease Outbreaks/veterinary ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/physiology/*virology ; Sheep ; }, abstract = {There is a solid theoretical basis for expecting climate change to have a considerable effect on the infectious diseases of humans, animals and plants. Vector-borne diseases are the most likely to be affected. It is, however, rare to observe such impacts, as diseases are also influenced by many other drivers, some of which may have stronger effects over shorter time scales than climate change. Nevertheless, there is evidence that our warming climate has already influenced some animal diseases, of which bluetongue is considered a prime example. Bluetongue emerged dramatically in southern Europe after 1998 and in northern Europe from 2006. While the speed and scale of this emergence is a challenge to explain, there is evidence, principally from the development of climate-driven models, that recent climate change has played a significant role. Climate-driven models point to an increase in the risk of bluetongue transmission in Europe in recent decades, caused by an increased suitability of parts of southern Europe for the Afro-tropical biting midge, Culicoides imicola, as well as an increase in the vectorial capacity of indigenous Culicoides vectors in northern Europe. Farm-to-farm transmission models of bluetongue in England and Wales under predicted climatic conditions further suggest that, under high-emission scenarios, the scale of future outbreaks could far exceed those experienced to date. The role of climate change in the developing threat of animal disease is, therefore, likely to be economically and socially costly, unless lower emission targets can be set and followed.}, }
@article {pmid30152194, year = {2018}, author = {Kornder, NA and Riegl, BM and Figueiredo, J}, title = {Thresholds and drivers of coral calcification responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5084-5095}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14431}, pmid = {30152194}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; *Calcification, Physiologic ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Seasons ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Increased temperature and CO2 levels are considered key drivers of coral reef degradation. However, individual assessments of ecological responses (calcification) to these stressors are often contradicting. To detect underlying drivers of heterogeneity in coral calcification responses, we developed a procedure for the inclusion of stress-effect relationships in ecological meta-analyses. We applied this technique to a dataset of 294 empirical observations from 62 peer-reviewed publications testing individual and combined effects of elevated temperature and pCO2 on coral calcification. Our results show an additive interaction between warming and acidification, which reduces coral calcification by 20% when pCO2 levels exceed 700 ppm and temperature increases by 3°C. However, stress levels varied among studies and significantly affected outcomes, with unaffected calcification rates under moderate stresses (pCO2 ≤ 700 ppm, ΔT < 3°C). Future coral reef carbon budgets will therefore depend on the magnitude of pCO2 and temperature elevations and, thus, anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Accounting for stress-effect relationships enabled us to identify additional drivers of heterogeneity including coral taxa, life stage, habitat, food availability, climate, and season. These differences can aid reef management identifying refuges and conservation priorities, but without a global effort to reduce CO2 emissions, coral capacity to build reefs will be at risk.}, }
@article {pmid30151036, year = {2018}, author = {Kingsolver, JG and Buckley, LB}, title = {How do phenology, plasticity, and evolution determine the fitness consequences of climate change for montane butterflies?.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {1231-1244}, pmid = {30151036}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Species have responded to climate change via seasonal (phenological) shifts, morphological plasticity, and evolutionary adaptation, but how these responses contribute to changes and variation in population fitness are poorly understood. We assess the interactions and relative importance of these responses for fitness in a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Because environmental temperatures affect developmental rates of each life stage, populations along the gradients differ in phenological timing and the number of generations each year. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity of adult butterflies, exhibits local adaptation across elevation and responds plastically to developmental temperatures. We integrate climatic data for the past half-century with microclimate, developmental, biophysical, demographic, and evolutionary models for this system to predict how phenology, plasticity, and evolution contribute to phenotypic and fitness variation along the gradient. We predict that phenological advancements incompletely compensate for climate warming, and also influence morphological plasticity. Climate change is predicted to increase mean population fitness in the first seasonal generation at high elevation, but decrease mean fitness in the summer generations at low elevation. Phenological shifts reduce the interannual variation in directional selection and morphology, but do not have consistent effects on variation in mean fitness. Morphological plasticity and its evolution can substantially increase population fitness and adaptation to climate change at low elevations, but environmental unpredictability limits adaptive plastic and evolutionary responses at high elevations. Phenological shifts also decrease the relative fitness advantages of morphological plasticity and evolution. Our results illustrate how the potential contributions of phenological and morphological plasticity and of evolution to climate change adaptation can vary along environmental gradients and how environmental variability will limit adaptive responses to climate change in montane regions.}, }
@article {pmid30150388, year = {2018}, author = {Staubwasser, M and Drăgușin, V and Onac, BP and Assonov, S and Ersek, V and Hoffmann, DL and Veres, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on the transition of Neanderthals to modern humans in Europe.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {37}, pages = {9116-9121}, pmid = {30150388}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Archaeology ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Extinction, Biological ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; *Neanderthals ; }, abstract = {Two speleothem stable isotope records from East-Central Europe demonstrate that Greenland Stadial 12 (GS12) and GS10-at 44.3-43.3 and 40.8-40.2 ka-were prominent intervals of cold and arid conditions. GS12, GS11, and GS10 are coeval with a regional pattern of culturally (near-)sterile layers within Europe's diachronous archeologic transition from Neanderthals to modern human Aurignacian. Sterile layers coeval with GS12 precede the Aurignacian throughout the middle and upper Danube region. In some records from the northern Iberian Peninsula, such layers are coeval with GS11 and separate the Châtelperronian from the Aurignacian. Sterile layers preceding the Aurignacian in the remaining Châtelperronian domain are coeval with GS10 and the previously reported 40.0- to 40.8-ka cal BP [calendar years before present (1950)] time range of Neanderthals' disappearance from most of Europe. This suggests that ecologic stress during stadial expansion of steppe landscape caused a diachronous pattern of depopulation of Neanderthals, which facilitated repopulation by modern humans who appear to have been better adapted to this environment. Consecutive depopulation-repopulation cycles during severe stadials of the middle pleniglacial may principally explain the repeated replacement of Europe's population and its genetic composition.}, }
@article {pmid30147799, year = {2018}, author = {Wamsler, C}, title = {Mind the gap: The role of mindfulness in adapting to increasing risk and climate change.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {1121-1135}, pmid = {30147799}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {It is becoming clear that increasingly complex global challenges cannot simply be solved by new technology or governments alone. We also need to develop new social practices and encourage a broader cultural shift towards sustainability. Against this background, this paper explores the role of mindfulness in adapting to increasing risk and climate change. Based on a literature review, it assesses current research on 'mindful climate adaptation', and explores how individual mindfulness is linked to climate adaptation. While in practice mindfulness-based approaches to climate adaptation have gained widespread recognition (e.g., by the United Nations), the results show that related research is scarce and fragmented. There is almost no research into the role of mindfulness in climate adaptation. At the same time, new scientific domains are opening up in cognate fields that illuminate the mindfulness-adaptation nexus from certain perspectives. These fields include: (1) disaster management; (2) individual well-being; (3) organisational management; (4) environmental behaviour; (5) social justice; and (6) knowledge production. As new concepts and approaches emerge, they require critical construct validation and empirical testing. The importance of further investigation is supported by a complementary empirical study, which shows that individual mindfulness disposition coincides with increased motivation to take (or support) climate adaptation actions. The paper concludes that mindfulness has the potential to facilitate adaptation at all scales (through cognitive, managerial, structural, ontological, and epistemological change processes) and should, therefore, become a core element in climate and associated sustainability research. Finally, it sketches the conceptual trajectories of the mindfulness-adaptation nexus and presents a pioneering, comprehensive framework for 'mindful climate adaptation'.}, }
@article {pmid30147786, year = {2018}, author = {Jerneck, A}, title = {Taking gender seriously in climate change adaptation and sustainability science research: views from feminist debates and sub-Saharan small-scale agriculture.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {403-416}, pmid = {30147786}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {People, places, and production contributing the least to climate change will suffer the most. This calls for adaptation as a key climate change response. But adaptation is surrounded by problems. Finance is uncertain and fragmented, mainstreaming into development is complicated, and technical solutions often overshadow existing social relations and institutions. From a gender perspective, and as a critical research initiative to support the building of sustainability science as an umbrella field, this article raises three pertinent questions on adaptation in the global South: what is its purpose, how can development inform it, and what institutions in terms of rights and responsibilities are core to it? Focusing on sub-Saharan small-scale agriculture, three main points emerge. Regarding the purpose, adaptation should be a transformative pathway out of poverty, ill-health, and food insecurity. Regarding development, adaptation can learn from how development theory, policy, and practice have addressed women, gender, and environment in varied settings and debates. Regarding core institutions, adaptation must address gender regimes that regulate access to, use of, and control over resources, especially those defining land distribution, labour division, and strategic decision-making power. To conclude, I propose gender-informed research questions for further inquiry.}, }
@article {pmid30147284, year = {2018}, author = {Woods, R and Coen, S and Fernández, A}, title = {Moral (dis)engagement with anthropogenic climate change in online comments on newspaper articles.}, journal = {Journal of community &amp; applied social psychology}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {244-257}, pmid = {30147284}, issn = {1052-9284}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is widely acknowledged to be morally significant, but little is known about everyday moralising around ACC. We addressed this gap via quantified thematic analysis of 300 online comments to British newspaper articles on ACC, drawing on Bandura's moral disengagement theory. Moral disengagement through denial of ACC was widespread. Other disengagement strategies, such as palliative comparison and diminishing agency, occurred less often. There was also some moral engagement, most often through assertions of the existence of ACC and/or its harmful effects. Moral disengagement was significantly more common in comments on right wing than left wing newspapers, whereas the opposite was true of moral engagement. Although Bandura's framework provided a useful starting point to make sense of ACC moralising, it did not capture moral concerns that extended beyond its "harm/care" remit. In particular, many "denial" comments included a "dishonesty" discourse, whereby ACC proponents were accused of deception for ulterior motives. To classify this discourse as moral disengagement obscures its engagement with a different set of moral issues around trust and honesty. We suggest that Bandura's theory represents one possible "moral landscape" around ACC and could be extended to encompass a broader range of moral concerns.}, }
@article {pmid30141151, year = {2018}, author = {Rymbai, D and Sheikh, FM}, title = {The insight of agricultural adaptation to climate change: a case of rice growers in Eastern Himalaya, India.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {10}, pages = {1833-1845}, pmid = {30141151}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animals ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Female ; India ; Oryza ; }, abstract = {Adaptation is crucial to curb down the negative impact of climate change particularly on agricultural sector. Hence, a study was conducted to identify the strategies adopted by the cereal growers in Eastern Himalaya region of India and determine the factors affecting them. A total 120 farmers were surveyed from Senapati district in Manipur and East Sikkim district in Sikkim. The widely adopted strategies were the change in transplanting time and change in transplanting as well as harvesting time, which were autonomous, traditional, and taken in response to the scarcity of water. Tobit model has identified that the area under rice cultivation, support received from Village Science Centre, and decline in food availability positively influenced the farmers to adapt to climate change. Multinomial logit model revealed that the female farmers, area under rice cultivation, and decline in rice productivity positively influenced the adoption of the strategies, whereas number of cattle owned, irrigated area, and support from Agricultural Department revealed the negative influence. To sustain farming in hill agriculture, the study recommends the integration of the farmers' knowledge along with scientific measures. Planned intervention, viz., in the form of construction of water harvesting structure, should be initiated by the State Government.}, }
@article {pmid30140980, year = {2018}, author = {Buse, CG}, title = {Why should public health agencies across Canada conduct climate change and health vulnerability assessments?.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {109}, number = {5-6}, pages = {782-785}, pmid = {30140980}, issn = {1920-7476}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health Administration ; *Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly impacting population health outcomes related to several areas of public health service delivery across Canada, and internationally. As a result, public health practitioners are increasingly looking for guidance on how to begin planning for and adapting to a myriad of health-related climate impacts. This paper outlines several benefits for local or regional health agencies in conducting climate change and health vulnerability assessments (CCHVAs), based on the author's experience in conducting two of Canada's first comprehensive assessments. These benefits include, but are not limited to establishing suitable baseline understandings of past, present, and future climate-related health risks; providing guidance on mechanisms to reduce health inequities that may be exacerbated by climate change; generating credibility for health agencies to engage with climate change and pursue collaborative, intersectoral relationships with a range of likely and unlikely allies; identifying suitable, cost-effective adaptation options in the form of public health programming; and encouraging decision-makers to produce proactive policy actions to redress potential climate impacts on population health. Completing a CCHVA can directly optimize health agencies' and their allies' efforts to respond to the health imperatives associated with climate change, while also fueling adaptation options that yield co-benefits across a variety of sectors.}, }
@article {pmid30136323, year = {2019}, author = {Bhattacharyya, S and Dawson, DA and Hipperson, H and Ishtiaq, F}, title = {A diet rich in C3 plants reveals the sensitivity of an alpine mammal to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {250-265}, pmid = {30136323}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Carnivory ; Climate Change ; Diet ; *Ecosystem ; Feces/chemistry ; *Food Chain ; Herbivory/physiology ; Lagomorpha/*physiology ; Mammals ; Plants/*chemistry/classification/genetics ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Plant-herbivore interactions provide critical insights into the mechanisms that govern the spatiotemporal distributions of organisms. These interactions are crucial to understanding the impacts of climate change, which are likely to have an effect on the population dynamics of alpine herbivores. The Royle's pika (Ochotona roylei, hereafter pika) is a lagomorph found in the western Himalaya and is dependent on alpine plants that are at risk from climate change. As the main prey of many carnivores in the region, the pika plays a crucial role in trophic interactions. We examined topographical features, plant genera presence and seasonal dynamics as drivers of the plant richness in the pika's diet across an elevational gradient (2,600-4,450 m). We identified 79 plant genera in the faecal pellets of pikas, of which 89% were forbs, >60% were endemic to the Himalaya, and 97.5% of the diet plant genera identified followed the C3 photosynthetic pathway. We found that, during the premonsoon season, the number of genera in the pika's diet decreased with increasing elevation. We demonstrate that a large area of talus supports greater plant diversity and, not surprisingly, results in higher species richness in the pika's diet. However, in talus habitat with deep crevices, pikas consumed fewer plant genera suggesting they may be foraging suboptimally due to predation risk. The continued increase in global temperature is expected to have an effect on the distribution dynamics of C3 plants and consequently influence pika diet and distribution, resulting in a significant negative cascading effect on the Himalayan ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid30133464, year = {2018}, author = {Weber, J and Wohland, J and Reyers, M and Moemken, J and Hoppe, C and Pinto, JG and Witthaut, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on backup energy and storage needs in wind-dominated power systems in Europe.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e0201457}, pmid = {30133464}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Europe ; *Forecasting ; Power Plants/organization &amp; administration/*trends ; *Wind ; }, abstract = {The high temporal variability of wind power generation represents a major challenge for the realization of a sustainable energy supply. Large backup and storage facilities are necessary to secure the supply in periods of low renewable generation, especially in countries with a high share of renewables. We show that strong climate change is likely to impede the system integration of intermittent wind energy. To this end, we analyze the temporal characteristics of wind power generation based on high-resolution climate projections for Europe and uncover a robust increase of backup energy and storage needs in most of Central, Northern and North-Western Europe. This effect can be traced back to an increase of the likelihood for long periods of low wind generation and an increase in the seasonal wind variability.}, }
@article {pmid30131478, year = {2018}, author = {Hayes, K and Poland, B}, title = {Addressing Mental Health in a Changing Climate: Incorporating Mental Health Indicators into Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {30131478}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Policy Making ; }, abstract = {A growing number of health authorities around the world are conducting climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments; however, few explore impacts and adaptations related to mental health. We argue for an expanded conceptualization of health that includes both the physiological and psychological aspects of climate change and health. Through a review of the global literature on mental health and climate change, this analytical review explores how mental health can be integrated into climate change and health vulnerability assessments and concludes with recommendations for integrating mental health within climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments.}, }
@article {pmid30131432, year = {2018}, author = {Day, JA and Fung, IY and Liu, W}, title = {Reply to Li et al: Late 20th-century drought in northern China reflects influence of global warming, aerosols, and natural variability.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {36}, pages = {E8329}, pmid = {30131432}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid30129483, year = {2019}, author = {Wingard, D and Trejo, J and Gudea, M and Goodman, S and Reznik, V}, title = {Faculty Equity, Diversity, Culture and Climate Change in Academic Medicine: A Longitudinal Study.}, journal = {Journal of the National Medical Association}, volume = {111}, number = {1}, pages = {46-53}, doi = {10.1016/j.jnma.2018.05.004}, pmid = {30129483}, issn = {0027-9684}, mesh = {California ; *Cultural Diversity ; Faculty, Medical/*organization &amp; administration/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Female ; Humans ; Interpersonal Relations ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Minority Groups/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Organizational Culture ; Organizational Innovation ; Organizational Policy ; Physicians, Women/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Salaries and Fringe Benefits/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Schools, Medical/*organization &amp; administration/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Sexism/economics/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Sexual Harassment/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: There is a national call for academic medicine to use evidence-based initiatives to improve its culture and climate. The authors report data-driven policy and programmatic interventions that were associated with increased faculty diversity, equity, respectful behavior and improved faculty climate, at UC San Diego Health Sciences.<br><br>METHODS: Based on demographic and survey data, interventions were designed to improve the climate between 2005 and 2015. Interventions included routine measuring and dissemination of demographic data, changes and dissemination of policy and procedures, and new and improved faculty development programming. Impact was measured using demographic data over time, salary equity studies, and school-wide climate surveys in 2005, 2011, and 2015. Specific outcomes included measures of diversity, salary equity, behavior, and climate.<br><br>RESULTS: Over the ten-year period, the proportion of women increased from 16% to 23% of tenure/tenure-track faculty and 31%-40% of all faculty. Underrepresented minority faculty increased from less than 1%-7% of tenure/tenure-track faculty and from 5% to 8% of all faculty. While women continued to be paid less than men, the adjusted difference dropped from 23% to 12%. Reports of inappropriate behavior by faculty decreased significantly, while satisfaction and knowledge about institutional mentoring and resources improved.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Multiple interventions including new faculty development programs, changes in policy, and measuring demographics/climate supported diverse faculty recruitment, enhanced a culture of respect and improved faculty morale. Cultural changes in policy, periodic faculty data collection with dissemination, and increased faculty development, improve the climate in academic medicine.}, }
@article {pmid30128861, year = {2019}, author = {Mendoza-Ponce, A and Corona-Núñez, RO and Galicia, L and Kraxner, F}, title = {Identifying hotspots of land use cover change under socioeconomic and climate change scenarios in Mexico.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {336-349}, pmid = {30128861}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Mexico ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {This study identifies the hotspots of land use cover change (LUCC) under two socioeconomic and climate change scenarios [business as usual (BAU) and a pessimistic scenario] at the national level for Mexico for three-time periods. Modelling suggests that by 2050 grassland and tropical evergreen forest will be the most endangered ecosystems, having lost 20-33% (BAU) or 43-46% (pessimistic scenario) of their extent in comparison to 1993. Agricultural expansion would be the major driver of LUCC, increasing from 24.4% of the country in 1993 to 30% (BAU) or 34% (pessimistic) in 2050. The most influential variables were distance from roads and human settlements, slope, aridity, and evapotranspiration. The hotspots of LUCC were influenced by environmental constraints and socioeconomic activities more than by climate change. These findings could be used to build proposals to reduce deforestation, including multiple feedbacks among urbanization, industrialization and food consumption.}, }
@article {pmid30127444, year = {2018}, author = {Ali, SA and Aadhar, S and Shah, HL and Mishra, V}, title = {Projected Increase in Hydropower Production in India under Climate Change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {12450}, pmid = {30127444}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Hydropower is a valuable renewable energy resource in India, which can help in climate change mitigation and meet the increasing energy demands. However, the crucial role of climate change on hydropower production in India remains unexplored. Here using the observations and model simulations, we show that seven large hydropower projects experienced a significant (p-value < 0.05) warming and a decline in precipitation and streamflow during the observed period of 1951-2007. However, all the hydropower projects are projected to experience a warmer and wetter climate in the future. Multimodel ensemble mean annual average temperature (precipitation) is projected to rise up to 6.3 ± 1.6 °C (18 ± 14.6%) in the catchments upstream of the other reservoirs by the end of the 21st century under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. Due to the projected increase in precipitation, mean annual streamflow (up to +45%) and hydropower (up to +25%) production are projected to rise under the future climate. However, significant warming (6.25 ± 1.62 °C) is projected to result in a decline in streamflow and hydropower production in May- June for snow-dominated Nathpa Jhakri and Bhakra Nangal hydropower projects. Our results provide insights into the development and planning of hydropower projects in India under the current projected future climate.}, }
@article {pmid30125314, year = {2018}, author = {Middaugh, CR and Magoulick, DD}, title = {Forecasting effects of angler harvest and climate change on smallmouth bass abundance at the southern edge of their range.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e0202737}, pmid = {30125314}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Arkansas ; Bass/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Floods ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change will affect stream systems in numerous ways over the coming century. Globally, streams are expected to experience changes in temperature and flow regime. Previous work has indicated that these changes will likely affect fish distributions, but little work has been conducted examining population level effects of climate change on warmwater fish at the warmest portion of their range. We model several potential climate change-related stressors and the resulting effects on smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu populations in the Buffalo National River, Arkansas, USA, located near the southern extent of smallmouth bass range. Smallmouth bass are a popular recreational fish in the region and angler harvest likely contributes substantially to annual mortality. We created a simulation model parameterized with data collected from the Buffalo National River to evaluate the relative importance of climate stressors and angler harvest on smallmouth bass populations. Our simulations suggest that increases in springtime temperature and reductions in river discharge during the spawning period could increase recruitment, resulting in increases in adult abundance (8% higher). However, when increased flooding and drought probabilities are considered, our model indicates the Buffalo National River could experience large reductions in adult smallmouth bass abundance (≥50% decline) and increased probability of extinction compared to present levels. Simulations showed that harvest reduction could be a viable strategy to reduce the negative effects of climate change, but that even with complete closure of harvest, smallmouth bass population levels would still be well below present abundance (46% lower than present). Efforts to reduce flooding and drought effects related to climate change in the Buffalo National River could help offset the predicted reduction in the smallmouth bass population.}, }
@article {pmid30121528, year = {2019}, author = {Gorguner, M and Kavvas, ML and Ishida, K}, title = {Assessing the impacts of future climate change on the hydroclimatology of the Gediz Basin in Turkey by using dynamically downscaled CMIP5 projections.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {648}, number = {}, pages = {481-499}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.167}, pmid = {30121528}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Gediz Basin is a Mediterranean watershed along the Aegean coast of Turkey, in which the most important economic activity is agriculture. Over the last few decades, this basin has been experiencing water-related problems such as water scarcity and competing use of water. This study assesses the impact of future climate change on the availability of water resources in the Gediz Basin during the 21st century by investigating the inflows into the major reservoir in the basin, Demirkopru Reservoir, which is the major source of irrigation water to the basin. The analysis in this study involves setting up a coupled hydro-climate model over the Gediz Basin by coupling the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the physically-based Watershed Environmental Hydrology (WEHY) model. First, the WRF model is used to reconstruct the historical climatic variables over the basin by dynamically downscaling the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. The calibrated and validated WRF model is then used to dynamically downscale eight different future climate projections over the Gediz Basin to a much finer resolution (6 km), which is more appropriate for the hydrologic modeling of the basin. These climate projections are from four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5, under two IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The outputs from the WRF model are then input into the WEHY model, which is calibrated and validated over the basin, to simulate the hydrological processes within the basin and to obtain the projected future inflows into the Demirkopru Reservoir. Results of the future analysis over the 21st century (2017-2100) are then compared to the historical values (1985-2012) to investigate the impacts of future climate change on the hydroclimatology of the Gediz Basin.}, }
@article {pmid30120891, year = {2019}, author = {Caminade, C and McIntyre, KM and Jones, AE}, title = {Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1436}, number = {1}, pages = {157-173}, pmid = {30120891}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {//National Institute for Health Research/International ; //National Health Service/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea-level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri-Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.}, }
@article {pmid30115798, year = {2018}, author = {Bongaarts, J and O'Neill, BC}, title = {Global warming policy: Is population left out in the cold?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {361}, number = {6403}, pages = {650-652}, doi = {10.1126/science.aat8680}, pmid = {30115798}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Family Planning Policy ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Population Control ; *Population Growth ; }, }
@article {pmid30114866, year = {2018}, author = {Parise, I}, title = {A brief review of global climate change and the public health consequences.}, journal = {Australian journal of general practice}, volume = {47}, number = {7}, pages = {451-456}, doi = {10.31128/AJGP-11-17-4412}, pmid = {30114866}, issn = {2208-7958}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disease Vectors ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Public Health/methods/*trends ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global climate change (GCC) will have an enormous impact on public health in the 21st century. Evidence clearly implicates the use of fossil fuels and the resultant anthropogenic greenhouse gases as the major source of GCC.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This paper seeks to examine briefly the association between fossil fuels and GCC, the consequent environmental changes and the predicted public health effects.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Complex and interrelated climate changes are forecast to present immense challenges, including increased morbidity and mortality, arising from heatwaves, extreme weather events, infectious and non-communicable diseases. The subsequent health effects, modulated by socioeconomic determinants, will be distributed inequitably primarily to vulnerable populations, largely in the tropics. A response to GCC is urgently required, involving strategies to mitigate and adapt to GCC. Not only will general practitioners be managing health conditions caused by GCC, but they are also well placed in the community to advocate for GCC mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid30113710, year = {2018}, author = {Peters, K}, title = {Disasters, climate change, and securitisation: the United Nations Security Council and the United Kingdom's security policy.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {42 Suppl 2}, number = {}, pages = {S196-S214}, doi = {10.1111/disa.12307}, pmid = {30113710}, issn = {1467-7717}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Public Policy ; *Security Measures ; United Kingdom ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Since climate change was included on the United Nations Security Council's agenda in 2007, there has been much debate about whether or not it has been securitised. This paper starts from the premise that climate change has undergone a partial securitisation-that is, a gradual process wherein political choices are made to frame certain issues in particular ways. Climate change has been reframed from a purely developmental and environmental concern to one that impels foreign policy and security domains. This paper makes a novel contribution to disasters, climate change, and security studies by arguing that explicit and implicit links to natural hazard-related disasters have been employed as part of a gradual process of securitisation, or, more specifically, the partial securitisation of climate change. This is demonstrated by drawing on two cases: United Nations Security Council debates between 2007 and 2017; and the United Kingdom's security policy between 1997 and 2017.}, }
@article {pmid30112780, year = {2018}, author = {Diovisalvi, N and Odriozola, M and Garcia de Souza, J and Rojas Molina, F and Fontanarrosa, MS and Escaray, R and Bustingorry, J and Sanzano, P and Grosman, F and Zagarese, H}, title = {Species-specific phenological trends in shallow Pampean lakes' (Argentina) zooplankton driven by contemporary climate change in the Southern Hemisphere.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5137-5148}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14423}, pmid = {30112780}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Argentina ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Lakes/*microbiology ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; *Zooplankton/physiology ; }, abstract = {The relationship between the timing of recurrent biological events and seasonal climatic patterns (i.e., phenology) is a crucial ecological process. Changes in phenology are increasingly linked to global climate change. However, current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is subjected to substantial regional and seasonal biases. Most available evidence on climate-driven phenological changes comes from Northern Hemisphere (NH) ecosystems and typically involves increases in spring and summer temperatures, which translate into earlier onsets of spring population developments. In the Argentine Pampa region, warming has occurred at a much slower pace than in the NH, and trends are mostly restricted to increases in the minimum temperatures. We used zooplankton abundance data from Lake Chascomús (recorded every two weeks from 2005 to 2015) to evaluate potential changes in phenology. We adopted a sequential screening approach to identify taxa displaying phenological trends and evaluated whether such trends could be associated to observe long-term changes in water temperature. Two zooplankton species displayed significant later shifts in phenology metrics (end date of Brachionus havanaensis seasonal distribution: 31 day/decade, onset and end dates of Keratella americana seasonal distribution: 59 day/decade and 82 day/decade, respectively). The timing of the observed shift in B. havanaensis phenology was coincident with a warming trend in the May lake water temperature (4.7°C per decade). Analysis of abundance versus temperature patterns from six additional shallow Pampean lakes, and evaluation of previous experimental results, provided further evidence that the lake water warming trend in May was responsible for the delayed decline of B. havanaensis populations in autumn. This study is the first report of freshwater zooplankton phenology changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH).}, }
@article {pmid30111788, year = {2018}, author = {Frölicher, TL and Fischer, EM and Gruber, N}, title = {Marine heatwaves under global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7718}, pages = {360-364}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9}, pmid = {30111788}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; Arctic Regions ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Hot Temperature ; Human Activities ; *Oceans and Seas ; Pacific Ocean ; Probability ; }, abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months[1] and can extend up to thousands of kilometres[2]. Some of the recently observed marine heatwaves revealed the high vulnerability of marine ecosystems[3-11] and fisheries[12-14] to such extreme climate events. Yet our knowledge about past occurrences[15] and the future progression of MHWs is very limited. Here we use satellite observations and a suite of Earth system model simulations to show that MHWs have already become longer-lasting and more frequent, extensive and intense in the past few decades, and that this trend will accelerate under further global warming. Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, current national policies for the reduction of global carbon emissions are predicted to result in global warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century[16], for which models project an average increase in the probability of MHWs by a factor of 41. At this level of warming, MHWs have an average spatial extent that is 21 times bigger than in preindustrial times, last on average 112 days and reach maximum sea surface temperature anomaly intensities of 2.5 degrees Celsius. The largest changes are projected to occur in the western tropical Pacific and Arctic oceans. Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes.}, }
@article {pmid30111485, year = {2018}, author = {Ricciardi, W}, title = {1st scientific symposium on Health and Climate Change, Italian National Institute of Health, 3-5th December 2018, Rome, Italy.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {643}, number = {}, pages = {A1}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.096}, pmid = {30111485}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Italy ; *National Health Programs ; *Public Health ; Rome ; }, }
@article {pmid30109679, year = {2018}, author = {Sracek, O and Kříbek, B and Mihaljevič, M and Ettler, V and Vaněk, A and Penížek, V and Filip, J and Veselovský, F and Nyambe, I}, title = {The impact of wetland on neutral mine drainage from mining wastes at Luanshya in the Zambian Copperbelt in the framework of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {29}, pages = {28961-28972}, pmid = {30109679}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Adsorption ; Calcium Sulfate/chemistry ; Carbonates/chemistry ; Chemical Precipitation ; *Climate Change ; Colloids ; *Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Ferric Compounds ; Filtration ; Metals, Heavy/*analysis ; Minerals/*chemistry ; *Mining ; Seasons ; Sulfates/analysis ; Wastewater/*chemistry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; Weather ; *Wetlands ; X-Ray Diffraction ; Zambia ; }, abstract = {The impact of a natural wetland ("dambo" in Zambia) on neutral mine drainage at Luanshya in the Zambian Copperbelt has been investigated during an intermediate discharge period (July) using a multi-method characterization of solid phase samples, sequential extraction analysis, X-ray diffraction, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy combined with water analyses, isotopic analyses, and geochemical modeling. In the wetland, the principal identified solid phases in sediments were carbonates, gypsum, and ferric oxyhydroxides. A significant portion of the ochres was present as insoluble hematite. Mine drainage pH values decrease, and log [Formula: see text] values increase after inflow of water into the wetland; dissolved and suspended concentrations of Fe, Mn, Cu, and Co also decrease. Based on speciation calculations, there is no precipitation of secondary Cu and Co minerals in the period of sampling, but it can occur later in dry period when the flow rate is reduced. Concentrations of sulfate decrease, and values of δ[34]S(SO4) in the wetland increase in parallel, suggesting sulfate reduction is occurring. In more advanced dry period, the discharge in mine drainage stream is probably much lower and water can reach supersaturation with respect to minerals such as gypsum, which has been found in sediments. Wetlands have a positive impact on mine drainage water quality due to the removal of metals by adsorption, co-precipitation, and filtration of colloids. However, there can also be a rebound of contamination by seepage inflow downstream from the wetland. Ongoing climate change with extreme hydrologic events may enhance differences between dry and rainy seasons with resulting faster mobilization of contaminants.}, }
@article {pmid30108575, year = {2018}, author = {de Souza, MS and Muelbert, JH and Costa, LDF and Klering, EV and Yunes, JS}, title = {Environmental Variability and Cyanobacterial Blooms in a Subtropical Coastal Lagoon: Searching for a Sign of Climate Change Effects.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {1727}, pmid = {30108575}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Cyanobacterial blooms in marine and freshwater environments may be favored by shifts in physical water column parameters due to warming under climate change. The Patos Lagoon (PL), a subtropical coastal environment in southern Brazil, is known for recurrent blooms of Microcystis aeruginosa complex (MAC). Here, we analyze the variability of these blooms and their relation to changes in wind direction and speed, rainfall and freshwater run-off from 2000 to 2017. Also, we discuss both longer time-series of air temperature and rainfall and a review of local studies with microcystins produced by these noxious species. Since the 1980s, MAC blooms were associated to negative anomalies in annual precipitation that occur during La Niña periods and, in the last years (2001-2014), accompanied by a trend in low river discharge. MAC blooms were conspicuous from December to March, i.e., austral summer, with massive patches seen in satellite images as for 2017. We suggest that low rainfall and run-off years under NE wind-driven hydrodynamics might accumulate MAC biomass in the west margin of the PL system. In contrast, a positive, long-term trend in precipitation (from 1950 to 2016; slope = 3.9868 mm/yr, p < 0.05) should imply in high river discharge and, consequently, advection of this biomass to the adjacent coastal region. Due to the proximity to urban areas, the blooms can represent recreational and economic hazards to the region.}, }
@article {pmid30108213, year = {2018}, author = {Sévellec, F and Drijfhout, SS}, title = {A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3024}, pmid = {30108213}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {In a changing climate, there is an ever-increasing societal demand for accurate and reliable interannual predictions. Accurate and reliable interannual predictions of global temperatures are key for determining the regional climate change impacts that scale with global temperature, such as precipitation extremes, severe droughts, or intense hurricane activity, for instance. However, the chaotic nature of the climate system limits prediction accuracy on such timescales. Here we develop a novel method to predict global-mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, based on transfer operators, which allows, by-design, probabilistic forecasts. The prediction accuracy is equivalent to operational forecasts and its reliability is high. The post-1998 global warming hiatus is well predicted. For 2018-2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend. This will temporarily reinforce the long-term global warming trend. The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures. The important numerical efficiency of the method (a few hundredths of a second on a laptop) opens the possibility for real-time probabilistic predictions carried out on personal mobile devices.}, }
@article {pmid30108186, year = {2018}, author = {Ornes, S}, title = {Core Concept: How does climate change influence extreme weather? Impact attribution research seeks answers.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {33}, pages = {8232-8235}, pmid = {30108186}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid30107770, year = {2018}, author = {Shorthouse, M and Stone, L}, title = {Inequity amplified: climate change, the Australian farmer, and mental health.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {209}, number = {4}, pages = {156-157}, doi = {10.5694/mja18.00624}, pmid = {30107770}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; *Health Services Accessibility ; *Healthcare Disparities ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ; Rural Health Services ; }, }
@article {pmid30107308, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, Z and Cui, C and Peng, S}, title = {Critical sectors and paths for climate change mitigation within supply chain networks.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {30-36}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.08.018}, pmid = {30107308}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Beijing ; Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide/*economics ; *Climate Change ; Energy-Generating Resources/*economics ; }, abstract = {Certain sectors and paths along supply chains play a critical role in climate change mitigation. We develope a consumption-based framework, which combines input-output analysis, a power-of-pull approach and structural path analysis, and applied it to supply chain networks derived from 2010 and 2012 Jing-Jin-Ji interregional input-output tables. The aim of this study is to identify (1) the key economic sectors for controlling carbon emissions and their changes, (2) the critical directions from a carbon-pulling sector to the emissions of key economic sectors, and (3) the paths with the largest carbon emissions flux in these critical directions. Our results show that the key sectors are from Hebei and Tianjin, more concentrated in Hebei. Most sectors have the largest pulling power over their own carbon emissions, and within-region connections dominated in the emission network, with a stronger tie between Beijing and the other two regions. Critical paths along carbon-pulling directions are located in tiers 0 and 1. Our framework can provide new insight into the creation of carbon emissions control policies.}, }
@article {pmid30103482, year = {2018}, author = {Bi, W and Weng, B and Yuan, Z and Ye, M and Zhang, C and Zhao, Y and Yan, D and Xu, T}, title = {Evolution Characteristics of Surface Water Quality Due to Climate Change and LUCC under Scenario Simulations: A Case Study in the Luanhe River Basin.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {30103482}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {It is of great significance to study the effects and mechanisms of the key driving forces of surface water quality deterioration-climate change and LUCC (land use and land cover change). The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) in north-eastern China was examined for qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the responses of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads on different climate scenarios and LUCC scenarios. The results show that from 1963 to 2017, the TN and TP loads basically presented a negative correlation with the temperature change (except for winter), while showing a significant positive correlation with the precipitation change. The incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to temperature increase. From 2020 to 2050, the annual average loads of TN and TP were slightly lower than from 1963 to 2017. The contribution of rising temperature was more significant on nutrient loads. Also, the incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to the future climate change. Under LUCC scenarios, the TN and TP loads and pollution incidence increased correspondingly with the decrease of natural land. The evolution characteristics analysis can provide support for the effect and adaptation-strategies study of climate change and LUCC on surface water quality.}, }
@article {pmid30103037, year = {2019}, author = {Guo, Y and Li, X and Zhao, Z and Nawaz, Z}, title = {Predicting the impacts of climate change, soils and vegetation types on the geographic distribution of Polyporus umbellatus in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {648}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.465}, pmid = {30103037}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Polyporus/*physiology ; Soil/chemistry/*classification ; }, abstract = {Polyporus umbellatus is a fungus that has been used medically as a diuretic for thousands of years in China. To evaluate the impacts of climatic change on the distribution of P. umbellatus, we selected the annual mean air temperature, isothermality, minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality and used observations from the 2000s and simulated values from two future periods (2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080) to build an ensemble model (EM); then, we developed a comprehensive habitat suitability model by integrating soil and vegetation conditions into the EM to assess the distribution of suitable P. umbellatus habitats across China in the 2000s and the two future periods. Our results show that annual precipitation and annual mean air temperature together largely determine the distribution of P. umbellatus and those suitable P. umbellatus habitats generally occur in areas with an optimal annual precipitation of approximately 1000 mm and an optimal annual mean air temperature of approximately 13 °C. In other words, P. umbellatus requires a humid and cool environment for growth. In addition, brown soils with a granular structure and low acidity are more suitable for P. umbellatus. Furthermore, we have observed that the distribution of P. umbellatus is usually associated with the presence of coniferous, mixed coniferous, and broad-leaved forests, suggesting that these vegetation types are suitable habitats for P. umbellatus. In the future, annual precipitation and annual mean air temperature will continue to increase, consequently increasing the availability of habitats suitable for P. umbellatus in northeastern and southwestern China but likely leading to a degradation of suitable P. umbellatus habitats in central China.}, }
@article {pmid30095156, year = {2018}, author = {Møller, AP and Erritzøe, J and van Dongen, S}, title = {Body size, developmental instability, and climate change.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {72}, number = {10}, pages = {2049-2056}, doi = {10.1111/evo.13570}, pmid = {30095156}, issn = {1558-5646}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*growth &amp; development ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Denmark ; Phenotype ; Seasons ; Wings, Animal/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Development is often temperature-dependent. We hypothesized smaller size and larger asymmetry with increasing temperatures. However, we also predicted associations with asymmetry to differ among traits that differ in their degree of functional importance (especially the functional wings in migratory birds were predicted to be more canalized), timing of development (skeletal [femur, tarsus, and humerus] vs. feather [wing and tail traits]). We analyzed a large dataset of which we included species with at least 20 specimens resulting in 5533 asymmetry values in 1593 individuals from 66 species. There was a consistent significant decrease in size with temperature across all traits. Fluctuating asymmetry (FA) for wings and femur was on average lower, suggesting higher canalization, and it decreased with migration distance, however that was not the case for the other traits. FA increased with increasing temperature for wings, but not for the other characters, where the different responses of different characters to temperature were significant. Because there was no significant three-way interaction between temperature, migration distance, and character, the asymmetry-temperature response was similar in migratory and resident species. These findings imply that climate warming reduces size of all traits and decreases developmental instability of wings in birds.}, }
@article {pmid30093836, year = {2018}, author = {Groot, L and Swart, J}, title = {Climate change control: the Lindahl solution.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {757-782}, pmid = {30093836}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate different burden sharing rules with respect to abatement of carbon emissions. We evaluate seven different rules both in terms of their redistributive impact and by the extent to which they realize the aim of optimal abatement. We show that the Lindahl solution, where the burden sharing rule of carbon abatement is determined by each region's willingness to pay, is to be preferred above the non-cooperative Nash outcome. Poor regions however would prefer the social planner outcome with a global permit market, because then the burden sharing rule has a secondary role of income redistribution by means of transfers from rich to poor, on top of its primary role of assigning abatement burdens. Based on these findings, we argue that in order to control global greenhouse gas emissions, the level of individual country emission abatement effort should be a function of their willingness to pay to curb climate change, rather than their historical emissions or ability to abate.}, }
@article {pmid30093833, year = {2018}, author = {Fellmann, T and Witzke, P and Weiss, F and Van Doorslaer, B and Drabik, D and Huck, I and Salputra, G and Jansson, T and Leip, A}, title = {Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {451-468}, pmid = {30093833}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.}, }
@article {pmid30093831, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, Z and Smyth, CE and Lemprière, TC and Rampley, GJ and Kurz, WA}, title = {Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia, Canada.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {257-290}, pmid = {30093831}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Managing forests to increase carbon sequestration or reduce carbon emissions and using wood products and bioenergy to store carbon and substitute for other emission-intensive products and fossil fuel energy have been considered effective ways to tackle climate change in many countries and regions. The objective of this study is to examine the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector by developing and assessing potential mitigation strategies and portfolios with various goals in British Columbia (BC), Canada. From a systems perspective, mitigation potentials of five individual strategies and their combinations were examined with regionally differentiated implementations of changes. We also calculated cost curves for the strategies and explored socio-economic impacts using an input-output model. Our results showed a wide range of mitigation potentials and that both the magnitude and the timing of mitigation varied across strategies. The greatest mitigation potential was achieved by improving the harvest utilization, shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived wood products, and using harvest residues for bioenergy. The highest cumulative mitigation of 421 MtCO2e for BC was estimated when employing the strategy portfolio that maximized domestic mitigation during 2017-2050, and this would contribute 35% of BC's greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 at less than $100/tCO2e and provide additional socio-economic benefits. This case study demonstrated the application of an integrated systems approach that tracks carbon stock changes and emissions in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products (HWPs), and the avoidance of emissions through the use of HWPs and is therefore applicable to other countries and regions.}, }
@article {pmid30093829, year = {2018}, author = {Klostermann, J and van de Sandt, K and Harley, M and Hildén, M and Leiter, T and van Minnen, J and Pieterse, N and van Bree, L}, title = {Towards a framework to assess, compare and develop monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation in Europe.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {187-209}, pmid = {30093829}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Adaptation is increasingly recognised as essential when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change on societies, economies and the environment. However, there is insufficient information about the effectiveness of adaption policies, measures and actions. For this reason, the establishment of monitoring programmes is considered to be necessary. Such programmes can contribute to knowledge, learning and data to support adaptation governance. In the European Union (EU), member states are encouraged to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). The NASs developed so far vary widely because of differing views, approaches and policies. A number of member states have progressed to monitoring and evaluating the implementation of their NAS. It is possible to identify key elements in these monitoring programmes that can inform the wider policy learning process. In this paper, four generic building blocks for creating a monitoring and evaluation programme are proposed: (1) definition of the system of interest, (2) selection of a set of indicators, (3) identification of the organisations responsible for monitoring and (4) definition of monitoring and evaluation procedures. The monitoring programmes for NAS in three member states-Finland, the UK and Germany-were analysed to show how these elements have been used in practice, taking into account their specific contexts. It is asserted that the provision of a common framework incorporating these elements will help other member states and organisations within them in setting up and improving their adaptation monitoring programmes.}, }
@article {pmid30093725, year = {2018}, author = {Junium, CK and Dickson, AJ and Uveges, BT}, title = {Perturbation to the nitrogen cycle during rapid Early Eocene global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3186}, pmid = {30093725}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {1455258//National Science Foundation (NSF)/International ; }, abstract = {The degree to which ocean deoxygenation will alter the function of marine communities remains unclear but may be best constrained by detailed study of intervals of rapid warming in the geologic past. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was an interval of rapid warming that was the result of increasing contents of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that had wide ranging effects on ecosystems globally. Here, we present stable nitrogen isotope data from the Eastern Peri-Tethys Ocean that record a significant transition in the nitrogen cycle. At the initiation of the PETM, the nitrogen isotopic composition of sediments decreased by ~6‰ to as low as -3.4‰, signaling reorganization of the marine nitrogen cycle. Warming, changes in ocean circulation, and deoxygenation caused a transition to nitrogen cycle to conditions that were most similar to those experienced during Oceanic Anoxic Events of the Mesozoic.}, }
@article {pmid30092826, year = {2018}, author = {Chalghaf, B and Chemkhi, J and Mayala, B and Harrabi, M and Benie, GB and Michael, E and Ben Salah, A}, title = {Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of Leishmania vectors in the Mediterranean basin: impact of climate change.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {461}, pmid = {30092826}, issn = {1756-3305}, support = {grant number S-LMAQM-12-GR-1145//American Association for the Advancement of Science/ ; }, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Insect Vectors ; Leishmania/*physiology ; Leishmaniasis/epidemiology/*transmission ; Mediterranean Region/epidemiology ; Models, Biological ; Phlebotomus/parasitology/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of sand flies during the last decades has shifted northward from latitudes below 45°N in southern Europe to latitudes just above 50[○]N. Recent studies show that some phlebotomine sand flies were recorded in several parts of Germany and Belgium. In central Europe, some autochthone leishmaniasis cases are being recorded in regions traditionally regarded as leishmaniasis-free. An important challenge is to predict the geographical distribution of leishmaniasis vectors under new climatic conditions. In this study, we attempted to predict the current distribution of six leishmaniasis vectors in the Mediterranean basin and forecast species' geographical shift under future climate scenarios using an ensemble ecological niche modeling approach. Species records were obtained from scientific surveys published in the research literature between 2006 and 2016. A series of climate metrics describing temperature and precipitation in the study area under two climatic scenarios were obtained from WorldClim database. A consensus model was derived from six varieties of modeling approaches (regression, machine learning and classification techniques) in order to ensure valid prediction of distribution of vectors under different climate scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: Model performance was generally high for the included species with a specificity (true negative rate) ranging from 81.03 to 96.52% (mean = 86.94%) and a sensitivity (true positive rate) ranging from 87.93 to 100% (mean = 96.98%). Our work evidenced the hypothesis of the widespread of Leishmania vectors under climate change scenarios. All of the studied species are prospected to gain new areas that are actually not suitable for vectors' survival. Phlebotomine sand flies are prospected to invade extra-Mediterranean regions, especially western and central Europe.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed the importance of environmental and climate factors on the distribution of leishmaniasis vectors and demonstrated the performance of ecological niche modeling in the prediction of the geographical spread of vector-borne diseases. Ecological niche modeling should be considered in the future as a valuable tool in addition to experimental laboratory studies for a better understanding of the biology of vector species.}, }
@article {pmid30087469, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Hunger's toll looks set to grow with tough action on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7717}, pages = {144}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05837-z}, pmid = {30087469}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid30083934, year = {2018}, author = {Godoy-Vitorino, F and Toledo-Hernandez, C}, title = {Reef-Building Corals as a Tool for Climate Change Research in the Genomics Era.}, journal = {Results and problems in cell differentiation}, volume = {65}, number = {}, pages = {529-546}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-92486-1_23}, pmid = {30083934}, issn = {0080-1844}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*genetics/microbiology/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; *Ecosystem ; *Genomics ; Humans ; *Research ; }, abstract = {Coral reef ecosystems are among the most biodiverse habitats in the marine realm. They not only contribute with a plethora of ecosystem services, but they also are beneficial to humankind via nurturing marine fisheries and sustaining recreational activities. We will discuss the biology of coral reefs and their ecophysiology including the complex bacterial microbiota associated with them.}, }
@article {pmid30083425, year = {2018}, author = {Olabisi, LS and Azhar, GS and Abbott, M and Lempert, RJ}, title = {Participatory Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Public Health in Long Beach, California: Discussion from a Workshop Hosted by the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition.}, journal = {Rand health quarterly}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {4}, pmid = {30083425}, issn = {2162-8254}, abstract = {Participatory modeling aims to incorporate stakeholders into the process of developing models for the purpose of eliciting information, appropriately reflecting stakeholder interests and concerns, and improving stakeholder understanding, and acceptance of the analysis. Participatory modeling, using causal loop diagramming (CLD), was used to explore the impact of climate change on public health in Long Beach, California. CLD, commonly used in participatory modeling, provided useful information to serve as the basis for a quantitative system dynamics model to protect the citizens of Long Beach, and potentially other cities or regions affected by climate change. Diverse stakeholders constructed CLDs depicting the impacts of climate change on public health in Long Beach. This exercise aimed to (1) identify public health issues that might be caused or exacerbated by climate change; (2) examine the systemic connections between climate change and other drivers of public health/illness and mortality; and (3) identify feedback loops to gain an understanding of how climate change could impact public health over coming decades. Six groups of five stakeholders were tasked with depicting the impacts of climate change on public health. Each group designated a key health outcome of concern on a citywide scale, including critical drivers of the outcome at higher and lower scales if necessary (for example, state laws, or household-level decisions that affect health outcomes in the aggregate). Social, environmental, political, and economic variables were all considered. After the small group diagramming exercise, groups presented diagram results to other participants, and the discussion around the diagrams was recorded.}, }
@article {pmid30083173, year = {2018}, author = {Six, DL and Vergobbi, C and Cutter, M}, title = {Are Survivors Different? Genetic-Based Selection of Trees by Mountain Pine Beetle During a Climate Change-Driven Outbreak in a High-Elevation Pine Forest.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {993}, pmid = {30083173}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Increased mortality of forest trees, driven directly or indirectly by climate change, is occurring around the world. In western North America, whitebark pine, a high elevation keystone species, and lodgepole pine, a widespread ecologically and economically important tree, have experienced extensive mortality in recent climate-driven outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle. However, even in stands experiencing high levels of mortality, some mature trees have survived. We hypothesized that the outbreak acted as a natural selection event, removing trees most susceptible to the beetle and least adapted to warmer drier conditions. If this was the case, genetic change would be expected at loci underlying beetle resistance. Given we did not know the basis for resistance, we used inter-simple sequence repeats to compare the genetic profiles of two sets of trees, survivors (mature, living trees) and general population (trees just under the diameter preferred by the beetles and expected to approximate the genetic structure of each tree species at the site without beetle selection). This method detects high levels of polymorphism and has often been able to detect patterns associated with phenotypic traits. For both whitebark and lodgepole pine, survivors and general population trees mostly segregated independently indicating a genetic basis for survivorship. Exceptions were a few general population trees that segregated with survivors in proportions roughly reflecting the proportion of survivors versus beetle-killed trees. Our results indicate that during outbreaks, beetle choice may result in strong selection for trees with greater resistance to attack. Our findings suggest that survivorship is genetically based and, thus, heritable. Therefore, retaining survivors after outbreaks to act as primary seed sources could act to promote adaptation. Further research will be needed to characterize the actual mechanism(s) of resistance.}, }
@article {pmid30082407, year = {2018}, author = {Ficklin, DL and Abatzoglou, JT and Robeson, SM and Null, SE and Knouft, JH}, title = {Natural and managed watersheds show similar responses to recent climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {34}, pages = {8553-8557}, pmid = {30082407}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Changes in climate are driving an intensification of the hydrologic cycle and leading to alterations of natural streamflow regimes. Human disturbances such as dams, land-cover change, and water diversions are thought to obscure climate signals in hydrologic systems. As a result, most studies of changing hydroclimatic conditions are limited to areas with natural streamflow. Here, we compare trends in observed streamflow from natural and human-modified watersheds in the United States and Canada for the 1981-2015 water years to evaluate whether comparable responses to climate change are present in both systems. We find that patterns and magnitudes of trends in median daily streamflow, daily streamflow variability, and daily extremes in human-modified watersheds are similar to those from nearby natural watersheds. Streamflow in both systems show negative trends throughout the southern and western United States and positive trends throughout the northeastern United States, the northern Great Plains, and southern prairies of Canada. The trends in both natural and human-modified watersheds are linked to local trends in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, demonstrating that water management and land-cover change have not substantially altered the effects of climate change on human-modified watersheds compared with nearby natural watersheds.}, }
@article {pmid30082401, year = {2018}, author = {Iknayan, KJ and Beissinger, SR}, title = {Collapse of a desert bird community over the past century driven by climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {34}, pages = {8597-8602}, pmid = {30082401}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Desert Climate ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Climate change has caused deserts, already defined by climatic extremes, to warm and dry more rapidly than other ecoregions in the contiguous United States over the last 50 years. Desert birds persist near the edge of their physiological limits, and climate change could cause lethal dehydration and hyperthermia, leading to decline or extirpation of some species. We evaluated how desert birds have responded to climate and habitat change by resurveying historic sites throughout the Mojave Desert that were originally surveyed for avian diversity during the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. We found strong evidence of an avian community in collapse. Sites lost on average 43% of their species, and occupancy probability declined significantly for 39 of 135 breeding birds. The common raven was the only native species to substantially increase across survey sites. Climate change, particularly decline in precipitation, was the most important driver of site-level persistence, while habitat change had a secondary influence. Habitat preference and diet were the two most important species traits associated with occupancy change. The presence of surface water reduced the loss of site-level richness, creating refugia. The collapse of the avian community over the past century may indicate a larger imbalance in the Mojave and provide an early warning of future ecosystem disintegration, given climate models unanimously predict an increasingly dry and hot future.}, }
@article {pmid30080880, year = {2018}, author = {Syphard, AD and Sheehan, T and Rustigian-Romsos, H and Ferschweiler, K}, title = {Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {e0201680}, pmid = {30080880}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Fires/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Models, Statistical ; *Plant Development ; Probability ; }, abstract = {Understanding where and how fire patterns may change is critical for management and policy decision-making. To map future fire patterns, statistical correlative models are typically developed, which associate observed fire locations with recent climate maps, and are then applied to maps of future climate projections. A potential source of uncertainty is the common omission of static or dynamic vegetation as predictor variables. We therefore assessed the sensitivity of future fire projections to different combinations of vegetation maps used as explanatory variables in a statistically based fire modeling framework. We compared models without vegetation to models that incorporated static vegetation maps and that included output from a dynamic vegetation model that imposed three scenarios of fire and one scenario of land use change. We mapped projected future probability of all and large fires (> = 40 ha) under two climate scenarios in a heterogeneous study area spanning a large elevational gradient in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Results showed high model sensitivity to the treatment of vegetation as a predictor variable, particularly for models of large fire probability and for models accounting for wildfire effects on vegetation, which lowered future fire probability. Some scenarios resulted in opposite directional trends in the extent and probability of future fire, which could have serious implications for policy and management resource allocation. Model sensitivity resulted from high relative importance of vegetation variables in the baseline models and from large predicted changes in vegetation, particularly when simulating wildfire. Although statistical fire models often omit vegetation due to uncertainty, model sensitivity demonstrated here suggests a need to account for that uncertainty. Coupling statistical and processed based models may be a promising approach to reflect a more plausible range of scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30080626, year = {2018}, author = {Torres, N and Goicoechea, N and Zamarreño, AM and Carmen Antolín, M}, title = {Mycorrhizal symbiosis affects ABA metabolism during berry ripening in Vitis vinifera L. cv. Tempranillo grown under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {274}, number = {}, pages = {383-393}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2018.06.009}, pmid = {30080626}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {Abscisic Acid/*metabolism ; Anthocyanins/*metabolism ; Climate Change ; Mycorrhizae/*physiology ; Phenols/*metabolism ; Plant Growth Regulators/*metabolism ; Symbiosis ; Temperature ; Vitis/*microbiology/physiology ; Water/physiology ; }, abstract = {Arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis is a promising tool for improving the quality of grapes under changing environments. Therefore, the aim of this research was to determine if the ability of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) to enhance phenolic content (specifically, anthocyanins) in a climate change framework could be mediated by alterations in berry ABA metabolism during ripening. The study was carried out on fruit-bearing cuttings of cv. Tempranillo (CL-1048 and CL-1089) inoculated (+M) or not (-M) with AMF. Two experimental designs were implemented. In the first experiment +M and -M plants were subjected to two temperatures (24/14 °C or 28/18 °C (day/night)) from fruit set to berry maturity. In the second experiment, +M and -M plants were subjected to two temperatures (24/14 °C or 28/18 °C (day/night)) combined with two irrigation regimes (late water deficit (LD) and full irrigation (FI)). At 28/18 °C AMF contributed to an increase in berry anthocyanins and modulated ABA metabolism, leading to higher ABA-GE and 7'OH-ABA and lower phaseic acid (PA) in berries compared to -M plants. Under the most stressful scenario (LD and 28/18 °C), at harvest +M plants exhibited higher berry anthocyanins and 7´OH-ABA and lower PA and dihydrophaseic acid (DPA) levels than -M plants. These findings highlight the involvement of ABA metabolism into the ability of AMF to improve some traits involved in the quality of grapes under global warming scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid30078955, year = {2018}, author = {Waldman, KB and Richardson, RB}, title = {Confronting Tradeoffs Between Agricultural Ecosystem Services and Adaptation to Climate Change in Mali.}, journal = {Ecological economics : the journal of the International Society for Ecological Economics}, volume = {150}, number = {}, pages = {184-193}, pmid = {30078955}, issn = {0921-8009}, abstract = {Changing climatic conditions present new challenges for agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa. Sorghum has proven to be an adaptable and resilient crop despite limited funding for crop development. Recent breeding efforts target hybrid and perennial technologies that may facilitate adaptation to climate change. Advantages of perennial crops over their annual counterparts include improved soil quality and water conservation and reduced inputs and labor requirements. In contrast, hybrid crops are often bred for improved grain yield and earlier maturation to avoid variable conditions. We use discrete choice experiments to model adoption of sorghum as a function of attributes that differ between these technologies and traditional varieties in Mali. Overall, the main perceived advantage of perennial crops is agricultural ecosystem services such as soil improvement, while adoption of hybrid crops is hampered by the inability to reuse seed. Women farmers are less concerned about higher labor requirements associated with perennial crops and the ability to reuse hybrids seeds than male farmers. Farmers prefer traditional sorghum to perennial sorghum and are indifferent between traditional and hybrid sorghum. These findings have important policy implications for understanding tradeoffs that are central to farmer decision making when it comes to breeding technologies for climate adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid30078910, year = {2018}, author = {León-Sánchez, L and Nicolás, E and Goberna, M and Prieto, I and Maestre, FT and Querejeta, JI}, title = {Poor plant performance under simulated climate change is linked to mycorrhizal responses in a semiarid shrubland.}, journal = {The Journal of ecology}, volume = {106}, number = {3}, pages = {960-976}, pmid = {30078910}, issn = {0022-0477}, support = {242658/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; 647038/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Warmer and drier conditions associated with ongoing climate change will increase abiotic stress for plants and mycorrhizal fungi in drylands worldwide, thereby potentially reducing vegetation cover and productivity and increasing the risk of land degradation and desertification. Rhizosphere microbial interactions and feedbacks are critical processes that could either mitigate or aggravate the vulnerability of dryland vegetation to forecasted climate change.We conducted a four-year manipulative study in a semiarid shrubland in the Iberian Peninsula to assess the effects of warming (~2.5ºC; W), rainfall reduction (~30%; RR) and their combination (W+RR) on the performance of native shrubs (Helianthemum squamatum) and their associated mycorrhizal fungi.Warming (W and W+RR) decreased the net photosynthetic rates of H. squamatum shrubs by ~31% despite concurrent increases in stomatal conductance (~33%), leading to sharp decreases (~50%) in water use efficiency. Warming also advanced growth phenology, decreased leaf nitrogen and phosphorus contents per unit area, reduced shoot biomass production by ~36% and decreased survival during a dry year in both W and W+RR plants. Plants under RR showed more moderate decreases (~10-20%) in photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and shoot growth.Warming, RR and W+RR altered ectomycorrhizal fungal (EMF) community structure and drastically reduced the relative abundance of EMF sequences obtained by high-throughput sequencing, a response associated with decreases in the leaf nitrogen, phosphorus and dry matter contents of their host plants. In contrast to EMF, the community structure and relative sequence abundances of other non-mycorrhizal fungal guilds were not significantly affected by the climate manipulation treatments.Synthesis: Our findings highlight the vulnerability of both native plants and their symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi to climate warming and drying in semiarid shrublands, and point to the importance of a deeper understanding of plant-soil feedbacks to predict dryland vegetation responses to forecasted aridification. The interdependent responses of plants and ectomycorrhizal fungi to warming and rainfall reduction may lead to a detrimental feedback loop on vegetation productivity and nutrient pool size, which could amplify the adverse impacts of forecasted climate change on ecosystem functioning in EMF-dominated drylands.}, }
@article {pmid30078685, year = {2018}, author = {Liang, JL and Zhou, WH and Gao, SM and Yu, WP and Shu, WS and Li, JT}, title = {A simple slash-and-char system to mitigate climate change and environmental pollution.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {242}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {1904-1911}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2018.07.074}, pmid = {30078685}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Agriculture/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Biomass ; Carbon ; Charcoal/*chemistry ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollution ; Greenhouse Gases/*analysis ; Oryza ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/analysis ; }, abstract = {Agriculture-based climate change mitigation may occur through enhancing the carbon sink or through reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from agricultural residue treatment, as open burning of agricultural residues produces millions of tons of GHGs and air pollutants annually worldwide. Charring slashed biomass, termed as slash-and-char, has been considered as a promising alternative to open burning in dealing with agricultural residues such as rice straw. Previous studies, however, focused on relatively sophisticated slash-and-char systems, which could not be practiced easily by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Here we introduce a simple slash-and-char system to mitigate the environmental problems associated with open burning of rice straw. This system could convert 30.7% of the initial carbon in rice straw into biochar, much higher than that retained in the ash generated by open burning (3.95%). It could also cut GHGs, particulate matters and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emissions by 26.9%, 99.0% and 99.4%, respectively. If open burning of rice straw was replaced by the slash-and-char, the annual emissions of GHGs, particulate matters and PAHs in China would decrease by at least 15.4 Tg, 1.51 Tg and 1.27 Gg, correspondingly. This decrease is nearly twice the size of China's estimated forest C sink (8.81 Tg).}, }
@article {pmid30077910, year = {2018}, author = {Salerno, F and Gaetano, V and Gianni, T}, title = {Urbanization and climate change impacts on surface water quality: Enhancing the resilience by reducing impervious surfaces.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {144}, number = {}, pages = {491-502}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2018.07.058}, pmid = {30077910}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Italy ; *Models, Theoretical ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Rain ; Rivers/chemistry ; Sewage ; Urbanization ; Waste Disposal Facilities ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Climate change and urbanization are key factors affecting the future of water quality in urbanized catchments. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impact of climate change and urbanization on the water quality of receiving water bodies in the context of a highly urbanized watershed served by a combined sewer system (CSS) in northern Italy. The impact is determined by an integrated modelling study involving two years of field campaigns. The results obtained from the case study show that impervious urban surfaces and rainfall intensity are significant predictors of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and consequently of the water quality of the receiving water body. Scenarios for the year 2100 demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanization is likely to lead to severe worsening of river water quality due to a doubling of the total phosphorus load from CSOs compared to the current load. Reduction in imperviousness was found to be a suitable strategy to adapt to these scenarios by limiting the construction of new impervious areas and decreasing the existing areas by only 15%. This information can be further utilized to develop future designs, which in turn should make these systems more resilient to future changes in climate and urbanization.}, }
@article {pmid30077852, year = {2019}, author = {Cai, D and Fraedrich, K and Guan, Y and Guo, S and Zhang, C and Zhu, X}, title = {Urbanization and climate change: Insights from eco-hydrological diagnostics.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {647}, number = {}, pages = {29-36}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.319}, pmid = {30077852}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To quantify how urbanization induced long-term changes have altered the evolution of urban climate, a novel eco-hydrological diagnostic is introduced and applied globally, to a developing and a developed country (China and US-America). Urban areas are (i) geographically identified by remote sensing based nighttime light, (ii) physically embedded in state spaces spanned by suitable combinations of surface energy and water fluxes comprising the rainfall-runoff chain, and (iii) dynamically characterized by the time evolution of the surface fluxes at geographically fixed locations, analyzed as trajectories in state space, and interpreted by an attribution model separating anthropogenic from climate induced causes. The results describe the long term climatological settings of urban areas in a net radiation versus dryness diagram, while the attribution of change is diagnosed in a state space spanned by energy and water excess: (i) Cities in China are characterized by a bi-modal distribution separated by the boundary between water and energy-limited (northern and southern) regimes while US-American cities are assembling unimodally on this boundary, and globally the urbanized areas are also aligned along this boundary between water and energy-limited regimes. (ii) Attribution of eco-hydrological changes of urbanized regions to climate and human-induced causes shows also basic differences between the developing and developed country: urbanization in Chinese cities is characterized by a 'wet-gets-drier' and 'dry-gets-wetter' paradigm of the climate-induced contributions, due to which cities tend towards a unimodal state as it is observed for US-American urban areas. Finally, implications for large scale city planning are discussed in the outlook.}, }
@article {pmid30077344, year = {2018}, author = {Dell'Apa, A and Carney, K and Davenport, TM and Carle, MV}, title = {Potential medium-term impacts of climate change on tuna and billfish in the Gulf of Mexico: A qualitative framework for management and conservation.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {141}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.07.017}, pmid = {30077344}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Gulf of Mexico ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction ; *Tuna ; }, abstract = {A systematic review of scientific papers on the potential impacts of climate-driven environmental changes on tuna and billfish in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) was conducted to identify the climate-driven pressures and their associated potential impacts on the reproductive success and survival of tuna and billfish, and which of those impacts may have more relevance for their management and conservation in the GOM by 2050. An Impact Screening Analysis (ISA) was developed to evaluate the potential climate impacts discovered in the literature synthesis by assessing each impact against four criteria, and assigning it a ranking based on likelihood of occurrence (High, Medium, or Low). Results show three types of climate-driven pressures within the High ranking: increased water temperature; changes in ocean circulation and eddy kinetic energy; and changes in storm and wind patterns. Our findings provide valuable information to advance our understanding of key climate-driven physico-chemical processes that can impact the biology of tuna and billfish in the GOM, and enhance conservation and management of these species.}, }
@article {pmid30075869, year = {2018}, author = {Lauria, V and Das, I and Hazra, S and Cazcarro, I and Arto, I and Kay, S and Ofori-Danson, P and Ahmed, M and Hossain, MAR and Barange, M and Fernandes, JA}, title = {Corrigendum to importance of fisheries for food security across three climate change vulnerable deltas Science of the total Environment 640-641 (2018) 1566-1577.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {1650}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.209}, pmid = {30075869}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid30075785, year = {2018}, author = {Gilfillan, D}, title = {Regional organisations supporting health sector responses to climate change in Southeast Asia.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {80}, pmid = {30075785}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Interinstitutional Relations ; Regional Health Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The role played by regional organisations in climate change adaptation and health is growing in Southeast Asia, with the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment both supporting health and adaptation initiatives. There is, however, a lack of empirical research on the value that regional organisations add to national health-related adaptation. This qualitative research compares regional project and governance-based models of adaptation and health support in Southeast Asia, providing an analysis of strengths and weaknesses of each, as well as possibilities for improvement.<br><br>METHODS: An existing adaptation assessment framework was modified for this research, and used as a guide to gather and analyse data from academic and grey literature, policy documents and interviews in order to qualitatively assess two organisations and their different models of adaptation and health support.<br><br>RESULTS: This research found differing strengths in the approaches to climate change and health used by the Asian Development Bank and by the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment. The regional forum has vision, high levels of perceived legitimacy, and access to 'in-house' expertise in public health and climate change. Conversely, the Asian Development Bank has strengths in project management and access to significant financial resources to support work in climate change and health.<br><br>CONCLUSION: When regional organisations, such as the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment, have membership and mandate overlaps, their work will likely benefit from well designed, institutionalised and incentivised coordination mechanisms. Coordination can reduce redundancies as well as the administrative workload on partner government agencies. In the case-study examined, the Asian Development Bank's project management expertise complements the vision and high levels of perceived legitimacy of the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment, thus a coordinated approach could deliver improved adaptation and health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid30073071, year = {2018}, author = {Cottingham, A and Huang, P and Hipsey, MR and Hall, NG and Ashworth, E and Williams, J and Potter, IC}, title = {Growth, condition, and maturity schedules of an estuarine fish species change in estuaries following increased hypoxia due to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {14}, pages = {7111-7130}, pmid = {30073071}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Understanding challenges posed by climate change to estuaries and their faunas remains a high priority for managing these systems and their communities. Freshwater discharge into a range of estuary types in south-western Australia between 1990 and 2015 is shown to be related to rainfall. This largely accounts for decreases in discharge in this microtidal region being more pronounced on the west coast than south coast, where rainfall decline was less. Results of an oxygen-balance model imply that, as demonstrated by empirical data for the Swan River Estuary, declines in discharge into a range of estuary types would be accompanied by increases in the extent of hypoxia. In 2013-15, growth and body condition of the teleost Acanthopagrus butcheri varied markedly among three permanently open, one intermittently-open, one seasonally-closed and one normally-closed estuary, with average time taken by females to reach the minimum legal length (MLL) of 250 mm ranging from 3.6 to 17.7 years. It is proposed that, in a given restricted period, these inter-estuary variations in biological characteristics are related more to differences in factors, such as food resources and density, than to temperature and salinity. The biological characteristics of A. butcheri in the four estuaries, for which there are historical data, changed markedly between 1993-96 and 2013-15. Growth of both sexes, and also body condition in all but the normally-closed estuary, declined, with females taking between 1.7 and 2.9 times longer to attain the MLL. Irrespective of period, body condition, and growth are positively related. Age at maturity typically increased between periods, but length at maturity declined only in the estuary in which growth was greatest. The plasticity of the biological characteristics of A. butcheri, allied with confinement to its natal estuary and ability to tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions, makes this sparid and comparable species excellent subjects for assessing estuarine "health."}, }
@article {pmid30073050, year = {2018}, author = {Berriozabal-Islas, C and Rodrigues, JFM and Ramírez-Bautista, A and Becerra-López, JL and Nieto-Montes de Oca, A}, title = {Effect of climate change in lizards of the genus Xenosaurus (Xenosauridae) based on projected changes in climatic suitability and climatic niche conservatism.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {14}, pages = {6860-6871}, pmid = {30073050}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Accelerated climate change represents a major threat to the health of the planet's biodiversity. Particularly, lizards of the genus Xenosaurus might be negatively affected by this phenomenon because several of its species have restricted distributions, low vagility, and preference for low temperatures. No study, however, has examined the climatic niche of the species of this genus and how their distribution might be influenced by different climate change scenarios. In this project, we used a maximum entropy approach to model the climatic niche of 10 species of the genus Xenosaurus under present and future suitable habitat, considering a climatic niche conservatism context. Therefore, we performed a similarity analysis of the climatic niche between each species of the genus Xenosaurus. Our results suggest that a substantial decrease in suitable habitat for all species will occur by 2070. Among the most affected species, X. tzacualtipantecus will not have suitable conditions according to its climatic niche requirements and X. phalaroanthereon will lose 85.75% of its current suitable area. On the other hand, we found low values of conservatism of the climatic niche among species. Given the limited capacity of dispersion and the habitat specificity of these lizards, it seems unlikely that fast changes would occur in the distribution of these species facing climate change. The low conservatism in climatic niche we found in Xenosaurus suggests that these species might have the capacity to adapt to the new environmental conditions originated by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30072614, year = {2018}, author = {Wells, CN and Tonkyn, D}, title = {Changes in the Geographic Distribution of the Diana Fritillary (Speyeria diana: Nymphalidae) under Forecasted Predictions of Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {30072614}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including butterfly species. Research has focused primarily on high latitude species in North America, with no known studies examining responses of taxa in the southeastern United States. The Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana) has experienced a recent range retraction in that region, disappearing from lowland sites and now persisting in two phylogenetically distinct high elevation populations. These findings are consistent with the predicted effects of a warming climate on numerous taxa, including other butterfly species in North America and Europe. We used ecological niche modeling to predict future changes to the distribution of S. diana under several climate models. To evaluate how climate change might influence the geographic distribution of this butterfly, we developed ecological niche models using Maxent. We used two global circulation models, the community climate system model (CCSM) and the model for interdisciplinary research on climate (MIROC), under low and high emissions scenarios to predict the future distribution of S. diana. Models were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics area under curve (AUC) test and the true skill statistics (TSS) (mean AUC = 0.91 ± 0.0028 SE, TSS = 0.87 ± 0.0032 SE for representative concentration pathway (RCP) = 4.5; and mean AUC = 0.87 ± 0.0031 SE, TSS = 0.84 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 8.5), which both indicate that the models we produced were significantly better than random (0.5). The four modeled climate scenarios resulted in an average loss of 91% of suitable habitat for S. diana by 2050. Populations in the southern Appalachian Mountains were predicted to suffer the most severe fragmentation and reduction in suitable habitat, threatening an important source of genetic diversity for the species. The geographic and genetic isolation of populations in the west suggest that those populations are equally as vulnerable to decline in the future, warranting ongoing conservation of those populations as well. Our results suggest that the Diana fritillary is under threat of decline by 2050 across its entire distribution from climate change, and is likely to be negatively affected by other human-induced factors as well.}, }
@article {pmid30065269, year = {2018}, author = {Kang, S and Eltahir, EAB}, title = {North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2894}, pmid = {30065269}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {North China Plain is the heartland of modern China. This fertile plain has experienced vast expansion of irrigated agriculture which cools surface temperature and moistens surface air, but boosts integrated measures of temperature and humidity, and hence enhances intensity of heatwaves. Here, we project based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that climate change would add significantly to the anthropogenic effects of irrigation, increasing the risk from heatwaves in this region. Under the business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heatwaves with wet-bulb temperature exceeding the threshold defining what Chinese farmers may tolerate while working outdoors. China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population: continuation of the current pattern of global emissions may limit habitability in the most populous region, of the most populous country on Earth.}, }
@article {pmid30064741, year = {2018}, author = {Asproudi, A and Ferrandino, A and Bonello, F and Vaudano, E and Pollon, M and Petrozziello, M}, title = {Key norisoprenoid compounds in wines from early-harvested grapes in view of climate change.}, journal = {Food chemistry}, volume = {268}, number = {}, pages = {143-152}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodchem.2018.06.069}, pmid = {30064741}, issn = {1873-7072}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Fruit ; Norisoprenoids/*analysis ; Odorants ; Seasons ; *Vitis ; Wine/*analysis ; }, abstract = {In view of climate change, the scheduling of an early harvest may be an agronomic option to limit wine alcohol, provided that a satisfactory content of secondary metabolites can be ensured in grapes. To better understand the link between grape ripening, seasonal trend and wine aroma, the aromatic expression of Barbera and Pinot Noir wines produced with early harvested grapes was assessed. Attention was focused on C13 norisoprenoids during both alcoholic fermentation and after three months of storage. At the end of fermentation, the highest β-damascenone content was detected in wines obtained from less ripe grapes, the content subsequently increased significantly after three months of storage; however, the levels of β-ionone decreased significantly during the same period. The reduction of wine alcohol as a result of harvesting earlier, especially for Barbera, was associated with optimal aromatic levels as well as good technological parameters.}, }
@article {pmid30063714, year = {2018}, author = {Guo, Y and Gasparrini, A and Li, S and Sera, F and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M and Saldiva, PHN and Lavigne, E and Tawatsupa, B and Punnasiri, K and Overcenco, A and Correa, PM and Ortega, NV and Kan, H and Osorio, S and Jaakkola, JJK and Ryti, NRI and Goodman, PG and Zeka, A and Michelozzi, P and Scortichini, M and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y and Seposo, X and Kim, H and Tobias, A and Íñiguez, C and Forsberg, B and Åström, DO and Guo, YL and Chen, BY and Zanobetti, A and Schwartz, J and Dang, TN and Van, DD and Bell, ML and Armstrong, B and Ebi, KL and Tong, S}, title = {Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002629}, pmid = {30063714}, issn = {1549-1676}, support = {MR/M022625/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Cause of Death ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Greenhouse Effect/*mortality/prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Gases/adverse effects ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30063708, year = {2018}, author = {Nissan, H and Conway, D}, title = {From advocacy to action: Projecting the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002624}, pmid = {30063708}, issn = {1549-1676}, mesh = {*Climate Change/mortality ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; Global Health/*trends ; *Health Status ; Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {In a Perspective, Hannah Nissan and Declan Conway discuss the implications of uncertainty about projected impacts of climate change on health.}, }
@article {pmid30063707, year = {2018}, author = {Patz, JA and Thomson, MC}, title = {Climate change and health: Moving from theory to practice.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002628}, pmid = {30063707}, issn = {1549-1676}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Health ; *Health Status ; Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {In an Editorial discussing the Special Issue on Climate Change and Health, guest editors Jonathan Patz and Madeleine Thompson summarize key issues in the field and describe the significance of research studies included in the issue.}, }
@article {pmid30062166, year = {2017}, author = {Mann, DL}, title = {Are Academic Medical Centers Placing Translational Scientists on the Endangered Species List?: A Call for Climate Change to Preserve the Species.}, journal = {JACC. Basic to translational science}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {500-502}, pmid = {30062166}, issn = {2452-302X}, }
@article {pmid30061649, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Pinning extreme weather on climate change is now routine and reliable science.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7716}, pages = {5}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05839-x}, pmid = {30061649}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disasters ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid30061648, year = {2018}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Droughts, heatwaves and floods: How to tell when climate change is to blame.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7716}, pages = {20-22}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05849-9}, pmid = {30061648}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Droughts/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Europe ; Floods/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Forecasting ; Geographic Mapping ; *Hot Temperature ; Human Activities ; Models, Theoretical ; *Natural Disasters ; Probability ; Russia ; South Africa ; *Weather ; Wildfires/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid30060608, year = {2018}, author = {Wei, J and Chen, H and Long, R}, title = {Determining Multi-Layer Factors That Drive the Carbon Capability of Urban Residents in Response to Climate Change: An Exploratory Qualitative Study in China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {30060608}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Carbon ; China ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Public Policy ; Urban Population ; }, abstract = {The active promotion of carbon abatement to mitigate global climate change and protect the environment and public health has become the international consensus. The carbon capability is a key index for measuring the potential reduction of the carbon emissions by urban residents, and thus encouraging residents to exhibit normal and autonomous low-carbon behavior has become an important issue. In this study, based on grounded theory, data from in-depth interviews were encoded at three levels to identify the multi-layer factors that drive the carbon capability of urban residents, and we constructed a theoretical model for policy intervention. The results showed that individual factors, organizational factors, social factors, and social demographic variables were the main variables that affected the carbon capability, and utility experience perception was the main intermediary variable that affected the carbon capability. There was an obvious gap between utility experience perception and carbon capability. Low carbon selection cost was an internal situational variable that regulated the relationship between these factors, and the policy situation and technical situation were external situational variables. There were two-way effects on the carbon capability and utility experience perception. Thus, we explored these driving factors and the role of the carbon capability model. The results of this study may facilitate targeted policy thinking and the development of an implementation path for government in order to formulate effective guiding policies to enhance the carbon capability of urban residents.}, }
@article {pmid30058746, year = {2018}, author = {Valle, D and Albuquerque, P and Zhao, Q and Barberan, A and Fletcher, RJ}, title = {Extending the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model to presence/absence data: A case study on North American breeding birds and biogeographical shifts expected from climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5560-5572}, pmid = {30058746}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Models, Biological ; United States ; }, abstract = {Understanding how species composition varies across space and time is fundamental to ecology. While multiple methods having been created to characterize this variation through the identification of groups of species that tend to co-occur, most of these methods unfortunately are not able to represent gradual variation in species composition. The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model is a mixed-membership method that can represent gradual changes in community structure by delineating overlapping groups of species, but its use has been limited because it requires abundance data and requires users to a priori set the number of groups. We substantially extend LDA to accommodate widely available presence/absence data and to simultaneously determine the optimal number of groups. Using simulated data, we show that this model is able to accurately determine the true number of groups, estimate the underlying parameters, and fit with the data. We illustrate this method with data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Overall, our model identified 18 main bird groups, revealing striking spatial patterns for each group, many of which were closely associated with temperature and precipitation gradients. Furthermore, by comparing the estimated proportion of each group for two time periods (1997-2002 and 2010-2015), our results indicate that nine (of 18) breeding bird groups exhibited an expansion northward and contraction southward of their ranges, revealing subtle but important community-level biodiversity changes at a continental scale that are consistent with those expected under climate change. Our proposed method is likely to find multiple uses in ecology, being a valuable addition to the toolkit of ecologists.}, }
@article {pmid30055491, year = {2019}, author = {Li, J and Dong, W and Oenema, O and Chen, T and Hu, C and Yuan, H and Zhao, L}, title = {Irrigation reduces the negative effect of global warming on winter wheat yield and greenhouse gas intensity.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {646}, number = {}, pages = {290-299}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.296}, pmid = {30055491}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Global warming may exacerbate drought, decrease crop yield and affect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in semi-arid regions. However, the interactive effects of increases in temperature and water availability on winter wheat yield and GHG emissions in semi-arid climates are not well-understood. Here, we report on a two-year field experiment that examined the effects of a mean soil temperature increase of ~2 °C (at 5 cm depth) with and without additional irrigation on wheat yield and GHG emissions. Infrared heaters were placed above the crop canopy at a height of 1.8 m to simulate warming. Fluxes of CH4, CO2 and N2O were measured using closed static chamber technique once per week during the wheat growing seasons. Warming decreased wheat yield by 28% in the relatively dry year of 2015, while supplemental irrigation nullified the warming effect completely. Warming did not alter the wheat yield significantly in the relatively wet year of 2016, but supplemental irrigation with no warming decreased the wheat yield by 25%. Warming increased CO2 emissions by 28% and CH4 uptake by 24% and tended to decrease N2O emissions. Supplemental irrigation increased N2O emissions but had little effect on CO2 emissions and CH4 uptake. Evidently, warming and supplemental irrigation had interactive effects on wheat yield, GHG emissions and GHG emissions intensity. Precision irrigation appears to be a means of simultaneously increasing wheat yield and reducing GHG emissions under warming conditions in semi-arid areas.}, }
@article {pmid30055058, year = {2018}, author = {Albrich, K and Rammer, W and Thom, D and Seidl, R}, title = {Trade-offs between temporal stability and level of forest ecosystem services provisioning under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {1884-1896}, pmid = {30055058}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {Y 895/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; Y895 B25//Austrian Science Fund/International ; P 25503-B16//Austrian Science Fund/International ; 101198//Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management/International ; }, mesh = {Austria ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forestry ; *Forests ; Models, Biological ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The ability of forests to continuously provide ecosystem services (ES) is threatened by rapid changes in climate and disturbance regimes. Consequently, these changes present a considerable challenge for forest managers. Management of forests often focuses on maximizing the level of ES provisioning over extended time frames (i.e., rotation periods of more than 100 yr). However, temporal stability is also crucial for many ES, for example, in the context of a steady provisioning of resources to the industry, or the protection of human infrastructure against natural hazards. How temporal stability and the level of ES provisioning are related is of increasing interest, particularly since changing climate and disturbance regimes amplify temporal variability in forest ecosystems. In this simulation study, we investigated whether forest management can simultaneously achieve high levels and temporal stability of ES provisioning. Specifically, we quantified (1) trade-offs between ES stability and level of ES provisioning, and (2) the effect of tree species diversity on ES stability. Simulating a wide range of future climate scenarios and management strategies, we found a negative relationship between temporal stability and level of ES provisioning for timber production, carbon cycling, and site protection in a landscape in the Austrian Alps. Tree species diversity had a predominantly positive effect on ES stability. We conclude that attempts to maximize the level of ES provisioning may increase its temporal variability, and thus threaten the continuity of ES supply. Consequently, considerations of stability need to be more explicitly included in forest management planning under increasingly variable future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid30054917, year = {2018}, author = {Knapp, AK and Carroll, CJW and Griffin-Nolan, RJ and Slette, IJ and Chaves, FA and Baur, LE and Felton, AJ and Gray, JE and Hoffman, AM and Lemoine, NP and Mao, W and Post, AK and Smith, MD}, title = {A reality check for climate change experiments: Do they reflect the real world?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {10}, pages = {2145-2151}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2474}, pmid = {30054917}, issn = {0012-9658}, support = {//US National Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Rain ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Experiments are widely used in ecology, particularly for assessing global change impacts on ecosystem function. However, results from experiments often are inconsistent with observations made under natural conditions, suggesting the need for rigorous comparisons of experimental and observational studies. We conducted such a "reality check" for a grassland ecosystem by compiling results from nine independently conducted climate change experiments. Each experiment manipulated growing season precipitation (GSP) and measured responses in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). We compared results from experiments with long-term (33-yr) annual precipitation and ANPP records to ask if collectively (n = 44 experiment-years) experiments yielded estimates of ANPP, rain-use efficiency (RUE, grams per square meter ANPP per mm precipitation), and the relationship between GSP and ANPP comparable to observations. We found that mean ANPP and RUE from experiments did not deviate from observations. Experiments and observational data also yielded similar functional relationships between ANPP and GSP, but only within the range of historically observed GSP. Fewer experiments imposed extreme levels of GSP (outside the observed 33-yr record), but when these were included, they altered the GSP-ANPP relationship. This result underscores the need for more experiments imposing extreme precipitation levels to resolve how forecast changes in climate regimes will affect ecosystem function in the future.}, }
@article {pmid30054543, year = {2018}, author = {Zachary, DS}, title = {The Inverse Poisson Functional for forecasting response time to environmental events and global climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {11342}, pmid = {30054543}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A series of Poisson distributions are fit to sets of global cost-of-impact data representing large-scale accidents and anthropogenic catastrophes. The fits are used to build a function representing data means and are designated the Inverse Poisson Functional. Climate and environmental data have been used to develop a cost-frequency population distribution and to estimate the expected time between events. On a global scale, we show that expected wait- or reaction- times can be estimated using the Poisson density function. The functional is generated, representing the locus of means (peaks) from the individual Poisson distributions from different impact costs. Past (ex-post) forecasts relate to a range of natural and anthropogenic disasters; future (ex-ante) forecast presents global CO2 emissions. This paper shows that a substantial reaction to global climate change (CO2 emissions extremum) will occur in 55 to 120 years (95% CI) with a model prediction of 80 years.}, }
@article {pmid30046067, year = {2018}, author = {Mitchard, ETA}, title = {The tropical forest carbon cycle and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {559}, number = {7715}, pages = {527-534}, pmid = {30046067}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Sequestration ; Environmental Policy ; *Forests ; *Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; Sustainable Development ; Trees/*metabolism ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Tropical forests make an approximately neutral contribution to the global carbon cycle, with intact and recovering forests taking in as much carbon as is released through deforestation and degradation. In the near future, tropical forests are likely to become a carbon source, owing to continued forest loss and the effect of climate change on the ability of the remaining forests to capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide. This will make it harder to limit global warming to below 2 °C. Encouragingly, recent international agreements commit to halting deforestation and degradation, but a lack of fundamental data for use in monitoring and model design makes policy action difficult.}, }
@article {pmid30045581, year = {2018}, author = {Pesce, M and Critto, A and Torresan, S and Giubilato, E and Santini, M and Zirino, A and Ouyang, W and Marcomini, A}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coastal waters.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {628-629}, number = {}, pages = {919-937}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.131}, pmid = {30045581}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {There is high confidence that the anthropogenic increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is causing modifications in the Earth's climate. Coastal waterbodies such as estuaries, bays and lagoons are among those most affected by the ongoing changes in climate. Being located at the land-sea interface, such waterbodies are subjected to the combined changes in the physical-chemical processes of atmosphere, upstream land and coastal waters. Particularly, climate change is expected to alter phytoplankton communities by changing their environmental drivers (especially climate-related), thus exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication events, such as hypoxia, harmful algal blooms (HAB) and loss of habitat. A better understanding of the links between climate-related drivers and phytoplankton is therefore necessary for projecting climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we present the case study of the Zero river basin in Italy, one of the main contributors of freshwater and nutrient to the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, a coastal waterbody belonging to the lagoon of Venice. To project the impacts of climate change on freshwater inputs, nutrient loadings and their effects on the phytoplankton community of the receiving waterbody, we formulated and applied an integrated modelling approach made of: climate simulations derived by coupling a General Circulation Model (GCM) and a Regional Climate Model (RCM) under alternative emission scenarios, the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the ecological model AQUATOX. Climate projections point out an increase of precipitations in the winter period and a decrease in the summer months, while temperature shows a significant increase over the whole year. Water discharge and nutrient loads simulated by SWAT show a tendency to increase (decrease) in the winter (summer) period. AQUATOX projects changes in the concentration of nutrients in the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, and variations in the biomass and species of the phytoplankton community.}, }
@article {pmid30045562, year = {2018}, author = {Aslam, AQ and Ahmad, I and Ahmad, SR and Hussain, Y and Hussain, MS and Shamshad, J and Zaidi, SJA}, title = {Integrated climate change risk assessment and evaluation of adaptation perspective in southern Punjab, Pakistan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {628-629}, number = {}, pages = {1422-1436}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.129}, pmid = {30045562}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is posing stresses on water resources, food security, population, environment and economy of the southern Punjab. Integrated climate change risk assessment is carried out using assessed likelihood approach for defined mean, hot &amp; dry, central, warm &amp; wet climate models over selected time slices and adaptation plans. Climate models are based on the 5[th], 50[th] &amp; 95[th] percentiles of PRECIS RCM projections of temperature &amp; precipitation under IPCC A2 &amp; A1B scenarios. Four time slices 2015, 2035, 2065 and 2085 are selected to assess the temporal climate change risk and to evaluate the performance of selected adaptations to reduce climate threats over considered assets. Results are presented in terms of risk indices and risk reduction units (RRUs). In first half of the 21[st] century, climate change risk will continue to increase from current level and is high (>10) in most of the selected time slices. Maximum ensembles of climate models, time slices and adaptation plans observe moderate (37-40 RRUs) and high (40-55 RRUs) risk class. Cumulative risk has been calculated through integration of sectoral sensitivity e.g. population density, land use, food security and multidimensional poverty to climate change risk class using AHP and overlaying in GIS environment. About 90% and 83% area of southern Punjab is falling in high cumulative risk. About 13% area, comprising Muzaffargarh and Rajanpur district is under very high cumulative risk. Water induced adaptations like development of water resources, dam &amp; flood control protection, temporary flood barriers and water resource acquisition are the preferred and suitable adaptations as these observed >100 RRUs for most of the ensembles. Assessing baseline vulnerability and sectoral sensitivity to climate stimuli are the hot spots requiring priority attention and firm decision making by disaster management authorities and communities residing in southern Punjab.}, }
@article {pmid30040814, year = {2018}, author = {Fagliano, JA and Diez Roux, AV}, title = {Climate change, urban health, and the promotion of health equity.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002621}, pmid = {30040814}, issn = {1549-1676}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Health Equity ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Protective Factors ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Social Determinants of Health ; *Urban Health ; }, abstract = {Jerald Fagliano and Ana Diez Roux discuss the challenges of climate change in an urban environment, but also opportunities for healthier lifestyles and green spaces.}, }
@article {pmid30039684, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, MP and Ren, CJ and Zhang, W and Chen, ZX and Fu, SY and Liu, WC and Yang, GH and Han, XH}, title = {[Responses mechanism of C:N:P stoichiometry of soil microbial biomass and soil enzymes to climate change.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {2445-2454}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201807.041}, pmid = {30039684}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Enzymes/metabolism ; Nitrogen ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Microorganisms and soil enzymes are important drivers for biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding the role of microorganisms in the regulation of ecosystems and the response mechanisms of microbial biomass and soil enzymes to climate change are important topic in ecology. From the perspective of climatic factors, this review introduced the roles of microorganisms and soil enzymes in the carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles of terrestrial ecosystems based on the theory of ecological stoichiometry. Moreover, we synthesized the responses mechanisms of soil microbial and soil enzyme stoichiometry, i.e., changes of microbial metabolic rate, enzymatic acti-vity, microbial community structure, ecological stoichiometry of soil microbial biomass and soil enzymes, and nutrient use efficiency. Finally, we analyzed the current research inadequacies and proposed the scientific problems in this field, i.e., to comprehensively elucidate the response mecha-nism of soil microbes and soil enzymes to climate change; to examine the nutrient coupling mechanism of soil microbes and extracellular enzymes; and to explore the adaptive strategies of C:N:P stoichiometry of soil microbial biomass and soil enzymes to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30039645, year = {2018}, author = {Huang, C and He, HS and Liang, Y and Wu, ZW}, title = {[Effects of climate change, fire and harvest on carbon storage of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {2088-2100}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201807.036}, pmid = {30039645}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Fires ; *Forests ; Taiga ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change will increase the frequency of fire disturbances, which may further exa-cerbate carbon loss from boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, China. In this study, we coupled forest ecosystem and forest landscape models to simulate the dynamics of boreal forest carbon storage in the next 100 years. We quantified the effects of climate change, fire and harvest on carbon storage of boreal forests. The results showed that climate change would increase carbon storage of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, even if fire and harvest could partially offset such changes. Aboveground and soil organic carbon storage would increase by 9%-22% and 6%-9% in the next 100 years. In the short-term (0-20 years), the effects of climate change on carbon storage was stronger than fire. The effects of climate change on boreal forest carbon storage were less than fire and harvest in medium (30-50 years) and long-term (60-100 years). The variability of climate change and fire disturbance in the Great Xing'an Mountains caused high uncertainty of the future boreal forest carbon storage. The uncertainties of aboveground and soil organic carbon of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains were 12.4%-16.2% and 6.6%-10.4% in the next 100 years. The effects of seed dispersal, fire and harvest should be taken account for accurate estimation of carbon storage in Chinese boreal forests.}, }
@article {pmid30039486, year = {2018}, author = {Bashir, MR and Atiq, M and Mohsan, M}, title = {The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) due to global climate change strengthens the plants and inhibits pathogenic infection.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {27}, pages = {26850-26851}, pmid = {30039486}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid30037049, year = {2018}, author = {Kholoud, K and Denis, S and Lahouari, B and El Hidan, MA and Souad, B}, title = {Management of Leishmaniases in the Era of Climate Change in Morocco.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {30037049}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors ; Humans ; Incidence ; Insect Vectors ; Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Morocco/epidemiology ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {The proliferation of vector-borne diseases are predicted to increase in a changing climate and Leishmaniases, as a vector-borne diseases, are re-emerging diseases in several regions of the world. In Morocco, during the last decade, a sharp increase in cutaneous leishmaniases cases has been reported. Nevertheless, in Morocco, leishmaniases are a major public health problem, and little interest was given to climate change impacts on the distribution and spread of these diseases. As insect-borne diseases, the incidence and distribution of leishmaniases are influenced by environmental changes, but also by several socio-economic and cultural factors. From a biological point of view, environmental variables have effects on the survival of insect vectors and mammalian reservoirs, which, in turn, affects transmission. Here, we highlight the effects of climate change in Morocco and discuss its consequences on the epidemiology of leishmaniases to identify challenges and define targeted recommendations to fight this disease.}, }
@article {pmid30033146, year = {2018}, author = {Whitehead, P and Jin, L and Macadam, I and Janes, T and Sarkar, S and Rodda, HJE and Sinha, R and Nicholls, RJ}, title = {Corrigendum to "Modelling Impacts of Climate Change and Socio-Economic Change on the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Meghna, Hooghly and Mahanadi River Systems in India and Bangladesh" [Stoten 636 (2018) 1362-1372].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {1651-1652}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.180}, pmid = {30033146}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid30032080, year = {2018}, author = {Suttles, KM and Singh, NK and Vose, JM and Martin, KL and Emanuel, RE and Coulston, JW and Saia, SM and Crump, MT}, title = {Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast U.S.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {806-816}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.287}, pmid = {30032080}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study assessed the combined effects of increased urbanization and climate change on streamflow in the Yadkin-Pee Dee watershed (North Carolina, USA) and focused on the conversion from forest to urban land use, the primary land use transition occurring in the watershed. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate future (2050-2070) streamflow and baseflow for four combined climate and land use scenarios across the Yadkin-Pee Dee River watershed and three subwatersheds. The combined scenarios pair land use change and climate change scenarios together. Compared to the baseline, projected streamflow increased in three out of four combined scenarios and decreased in one combined scenario. Baseflow decreased in all combined scenarios, but decreases were largest in subwatersheds that lost the most forest. The effects of land use change and climate change were additive, amplifying the increases in runoff and decreases in baseflow. Streamflow was influenced more strongly by climate change than land use change. However, for baseflow the reverse was true; land use change tended to drive baseflow more than climate change. Land use change was also a stronger driver than climate in the most urban subwatershed. In the most extreme land use and climate projection the volume of the 1-day, 100 year flood nearly doubled at the watershed outlet. Our results underscore the importance of forests as hydrologic regulators buffering streamflow and baseflow from hydrologic extremes. Additionally, our results suggest that land managers and policy makers need to consider the implications of forest loss on streamflow and baseflow when planning for future urbanization and climate change adaptation options.}, }
@article {pmid30031364, year = {2018}, author = {Madsen, HM and Andersen, MM and Rygaard, M and Mikkelsen, PS}, title = {Definitions of event magnitudes, spatial scales, and goals for climate change adaptation and their importance for innovation and implementation.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {144}, number = {}, pages = {192-203}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2018.07.026}, pmid = {30031364}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Denmark ; Environmental Policy ; Floods ; Goals ; *Inventions ; Rain ; Water ; }, abstract = {We examine how core professional and institutional actors in the innovation system conceptualize climate change adaptation in regards to pluvial flooding-and how this influences innovation. We do this through a qualitative case study in Copenhagen with interconnected research rounds, including 32 semi-structured interviews, to strengthen the interpretation and analysis of qualitative data. We find that the term "climate change adaptation" currently has no clearly agreed definition in Copenhagen; instead, different actors use different conceptualizations of climate change adaptation according to the characteristics of their specific innovation and implementation projects. However, there is convergence among actors towards a new cognitive paradigm, whereby economic goals and multifunctionality are linked with cost-benefit analyses for adapting to extreme rain events on a surface water catchment scale. Differences in definitions can lead to both successful innovation and to conflict, and thus they affect the city's capacity for change. Our empirical work suggests that climate change adaptation can be characterized according to three attributes: event magnitudes (everyday, design, and extreme), spatial scales (small/local, medium/urban, and large/national-international), and (a wide range of) goals, thereby resulting in different technology choices.}, }
@article {pmid30030873, year = {2018}, author = {Thomas, Y and Bacher, C}, title = {Assessing the sensitivity of bivalve populations to global warming using an individual-based modelling approach.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {4581-4597}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14402}, pmid = {30030873}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {SAD POPDEB n&#xb0;9277//R&#xe9;gion Bretagne/International ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Models, Biological ; Mytilus/*physiology ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Climate change exposes benthic species populations in coastal ecosystems to a combination of different stressors (e.g., warming, acidification and eutrophication), threatening the sustainability of the ecological functions they provide. Thermal stress appears to be one of the strongest drivers impacting marine ecosystems, acting across a wide range of scales, from individual metabolic performances to geographic distribution of populations. Accounting for and integrating the response of species functional traits to thermal stress is therefore a necessary step in predicting how populations will respond to the warming expected in coming decades. Here, we developed an individual-based population model using a mechanistic formulation of metabolic processes within the framework of the dynamic energy budget theory. Through a large number of simulations, we assessed the sensitivity of population growth potential to thermal stress and food conditions based on a climate projection scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP8.5: no reduction of greenhouse gas emissions). We focused on three bivalve species with contrasting thermal tolerance ranges and distinct distribution ranges along 5,000 km of coastline in the NE Atlantic: the Pacific oyster (Magallana gigas), and two mussel species: Mytilus edulis and Mytilus galloprovincialis. Our results suggest substantial and contrasting changes within species depending on local temperature and food concentration. Reproductive phenology appeared to be a core process driving the responses of the populations, and these patterns were closely related to species thermal tolerances. The nonlinear relationship we found between individual life-history traits and response at the population level emphasizes the need to consider the interactions resulting from upscaling across different levels of biological organisation. These results underline the importance of a process-based understanding of benthic population response to seawater warming, which will be necessary for forward planning of resource management and strategies for conservation and adaptation to environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid30029120, year = {2018}, author = {Ghezzo, M and Pellizzato, M and De Pascalis, F and Silvestri, S and Umgiesser, G}, title = {Natural resources and climate change: A study of the potential impact on Manila clam in the Venice lagoon.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {419-430}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.060}, pmid = {30029120}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture/methods ; Bivalvia/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Introduced Species ; *Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {A crucial aspect in climate change is to understand how an ecosystem will adapt under different environmental conditions and how it will influence the ecological resources and the connected human activities. In this study, a numerical model reproduces the growth dynamics, dispersion and settlement of clam's larvae in the Venice lagoon. On the basis of the last IPCC scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100, the model simulates the changes in larval settlement, showing how the geographical distribution and, consequently, the nursery area changes over time. Our results indicate that climate change will modify, not only the timing of the settlements (from spring-summer to winter autumn) and the spatial distribution of nursery areas (from central to southern lagoon), but also the absolute quantity of settled larvae in the lagoon. This can strongly affect aquaculture in terms of availability of seed and farming practice. Given that these changes are due to the variations in temperature and circulation, similar processes are likely to happen in other transitional environments all over the world affecting the global aquaculture resources. In this regard, the tool we developed could support local policymakers in the knowledge-based planning and sustainable management of clam aquaculture in vulnerable environments.}, }
@article {pmid30026213, year = {2018}, author = {Randel, WJ}, title = {The seasonal fingerprint of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {361}, number = {6399}, pages = {227-228}, doi = {10.1126/science.aat9097}, pmid = {30026213}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid30025064, year = {2018}, author = {Robertson, AD and Zhang, Y and Sherrod, LA and Rosenzweig, ST and Ma, L and Ahuja, L and Schipanski, ME}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Yields and Soil Carbon in Row Crop Dryland Agriculture.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {684-694}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.08.0309}, pmid = {30025064}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Environmental Monitoring ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two climate change scenarios (moderate warming, representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5; and high warming, RCP 8.5), using long-term experimental data and the DayCent process-based model for three sites with varying climates and soil conditions in the US High Plains. Each site included a no-till cropping intensity gradient introduced in 1985, with treatments ranging from wheat-fallow (L.) to continuous annual cropping and perennial grass. Simulations were extended to 2100 using data from 16 global circulation models to estimate uncertainty. Simulated yields declined for all crops (up to 50% for wheat), with small changes after 2050 under RCP 4.5 and continued losses to 2100 under RCP 8.5. Of the cropped systems, continuous cropping had the highest average productivity and soil C sequestration rates (78.1 kg C ha yr from 2015 to 2045 under RCP 4.5). Any increase in soil C for cropped rotations was realized by 2050, but grassland treatments increased soil C (up to 69%) through 2100, even under RCP 8.5. Our simulations indicate that reduced frequency of summer fallow can both increase annualized yields and store more soil C. As evapotranspiration is likely to increase, reducing fallow periods without live vegetation from dryland agricultural rotations may enhance the resilience of these systems to climate change while also increasing soil C storage and mitigating carbon dioxide emissions.}, }
@article {pmid30025061, year = {2018}, author = {Nash, PR and Gollany, HT and Sainju, UM}, title = {CQESTR-Simulated Response of Soil Organic Carbon to Management, Yield, and Climate Change in the Northern Great Plains Region.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {674-683}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.07.0273}, pmid = {30025061}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Traditional dryland crop management includes fallow and intensive tillage, which have reduced soil organic carbon (SOC) over the past century, raising concerns regarding soil health and sustainability. The objectives of this study were: (i) to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, to simulate SOC dynamics from 2006 to 2011 and to predict relative SOC trends in cropping sequences that included barley (L.), pea (L.), and fallow under conventional tillage or no-till, and N fertilization rates through 2045; and (ii) to identify best dryland cropping systems to increase SOC and reduce CO emissions under projected climate change in eastern Montana. Cropping sequences were conventional-till barley-fallow (CTB-F), no-till barley-fallow (NTB-F), no-till continuous barley (NTCB), and no-till barley-pea (NTB-P), with 0 and 80 kg N ha applied to barley. Under current crop production, climatic conditions, and averaged N rates, SOC at the 0- to 10-cm depth was predicted to increase by 1.74, 1.79, 2.96, and 4.57 Mg C ha by 2045 for CTB-F, NTB-F, NTB-P, and NTCB, respectively. When projected climate change and the current positive US barley yield trend were accounted for in the simulations, SOC accretion was projected to increase by 0.69 to 0.92 Mg C ha and 0.41 to 0.47 Mg C ha, respectively. According to the model simulations, adoption of NT, elimination of fallow years, and N fertilizer management will likely have the greatest impact on SOC stocks in the top soil as of 2045 in the Northern Great Plains.}, }
@article {pmid30025056, year = {2018}, author = {Wienhold, BJ and Jin, VL and Schmer, MR and Varvel, GE}, title = {Soil Carbon Response to Projected Climate Change in the US Western Corn Belt.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {704-709}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.09.0379}, pmid = {30025056}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Soil/chemistry ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {The western US Corn Belt is projected to experience major changes in growing conditions due to climate change over the next 50 to 100 yr. Projected changes include increases in growing season length, number of high temperature stress days and warm nights, and precipitation, with more heavy rainfall events. The impact these changes will have on soil organic carbon (SOC) needs to be estimated and adaptive changes in management developed to sustain soil health and system services. The process-based model CQESTR was used to model changes in SOC stocks (0-30 cm) of continuous corn (L.) and a corn-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation under disk, chisel, ridge, and no-tillage using projected growing season conditions for the next 50 yr. Input for the model was based on management and harvest records from a long-term tillage study (1986-2015) in eastern Nebraska, and model output was validated using measured changes in SOC from 1999 to 2011 in the study. The validated model was used to estimate changes in SOC over 17 yr under climatic conditions projected for 2065 under two scenarios: (i) crop yields increasing at the observed rate from 1971 to 2016 or (ii) crop yields reduced due to negative effects of increasing temperature. CQESTR estimates of SOC agreed well with measured SOC (= 0.70, < 0.0001). Validated model simulated changes in SOC under projected climate change differed among the three soil depths (0-7.5, 7.5-15, and 15-30 cm). Summed over the 0- to 30-cm depth, there were significant three-way interactions of year × rotation × yield (= 0.014) and year × tillage × yield (< 0.001). As yield increased, SOC increased under no-tillage continuous corn but was unchanged under no-tillage corn-soybean and ridge tillage regardless of cropping system. Under chisel and disk tillage, SOC declined regardless of cropping system. With declining yields SOC decreased regardless of tillage or cropping system. These results highlight the interaction between genetics and management in maintaining yield trends and soil C.}, }
@article {pmid30025049, year = {2018}, author = {Gollany, HT and Polumsky, RW}, title = {Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Responses to Cropping Intensity, Tillage, and Climate Change in Pacific Northwest Dryland.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {625-634}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.09.0374}, pmid = {30025049}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Northwestern United States ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Managing dryland cropping systems to increase soil organic C (SOC) under changing climate is challenging after decades of winter wheat (L.)-fallow and moldboard plow tillage (W-F/MP). The objective was to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, and SOC data collected in 2004, 2008, and 2012 to predict the best management to increase SOC under changing climate in four cropping systems, which included continuous wheat under no tillage (W-W/NT), wheat and sorghum × sudangrass [ (L.) Moench. × L.] under no tillage, wheat-fallow under sweep tillage, and W-F/MP. Since future yields and climate are uncertain, 20 scenarios for each cropping system were simulated with four climate projections and five crop yield scenarios (current crop yields, and 10 or 30% greater or lesser yields). Measured and simulated SOC were significantly (< 0.0001) correlated (= 0.98) at all soil depths. Predicted SOC changes ranged from -12.03 to 2.56 Mg C ha in the 1-m soil depth for W-F/MP and W-W/NT, respectively, during the 2012 to 2052 predictive period. Only W-W/NT sequestered SOC at a rate of 0.06 Mg C ha yr under current crop yields and climate. Under climate change and yield scenarios, W-W/NT lost SOC except with a 30% wheat yield increase for 40 yr. Predicted SOC increases in W-W/NT were 0.71, 1.16, and 0.88 Mg C ha under the Oregon Climate Assessment Reports for low emissions and high emissions and the Regional Climate Model version 3 with boundary conditions from the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model, respectively, with 30% yield increases. Continuous no-till cropping would increase SOC and improve soil health and resiliency to lessen the impact of extreme weather.}, }
@article {pmid30025045, year = {2018}, author = {Nash, PR and Gollany, HT and Liebig, MA and Halvorson, JJ and Archer, DW and Tanaka, DL}, title = {Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Responses to Crop Rotation, Tillage, and Climate Change in North Dakota.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {654-662}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.04.0161}, pmid = {30025045}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Crop Production ; Crops, Agricultural ; North Dakota ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Understanding how agricultural management and climate change affect soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is particularly important for dryland agriculture regions that have been losing SOC over time due to fallow and tillage practices, and it can lead to development of agricultural practice(s) that reduce the impact of climate change on crop production. The objectives of this study were: (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in the top 30 cm of soil during a 20-yr (1993-2012) field study using CQESTR, a process-based C model; (ii) to predict the impact of changes in management, crop production, and climate change from 2013 to 2032; and (iii) to identify the best dryland cropping systems to maintain or increase SOC stocks under projected climate change in central North Dakota. Intensifying crop rotations was predicted to have a greater impact on SOC stocks than tillage (minimum tillage [MT], no-till [NT]) during 2013 to 2032, as SOC was highly correlated to biomass input (= 0.91, = 0.00053). Converting from a MT spring wheat (SW, L.)-fallow rotation to a NT continuous SW rotation increased annualized biomass additions by 2.77 Mg ha (82%) and SOC by 0.22 Mg C ha yr. Under the assumption that crop production will stay at the 1993 to 2012 average, climate change is predicted to have a minor impact on SOC (approximately -6.5%) relative to crop rotation management. The CQESTR model predicted that the addition of another SW or rye (L.) crop would have a greater effect on SOC stocks (0- to 30-cm depth) than conversion from MT to NT or climate change from 2013 to 2032.}, }
@article {pmid30025039, year = {2018}, author = {Jebari, A and Del Prado, A and Pardo, G and Rodríguez Martín, JA and Álvaro-Fuentes, J}, title = {Modeling Regional Effects of Climate Change on Soil Organic Carbon in Spain.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {644-653}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.07.0294}, pmid = {30025039}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Soil/*chemistry ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Soil organic C (SOC) stock assessments at the regional scale under climate change scenarios are of paramount importance in implementing soil management practices to mitigate climate change. In this study, we estimated the changes in SOC sequestration under climate change conditions in agricultural land in Spain using the RothC model at the regional level. Four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios (CGCM2-A2, CGCM2-B2, ECHAM4-A2, and ECHAM4-B2) were used to simulate SOC changes during the 2010 to 2100 period across a total surface area of 2.33 × 10 km. Although RothC predicted a general increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all climate change scenarios, these SOC sequestration rates were smaller than those under baseline conditions. Moreover, this SOC response differed among climate change scenarios, and in some situations, some losses of SOC occurred. The greatest losses of C stocks were found mainly in the ECHAM4 (highest temperature rise and precipitation drop) scenarios and for rainfed and certain woody crops (lower C inputs). Under climate change conditions, management practices including no-tillage for rainfed crops and vegetation cover for woody crops were predicted to double and quadruple C sequestration rates, reaching values of 0.47 and 0.35 Mg C ha yr, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid30025032, year = {2018}, author = {Nash, PR and Gollany, HT and Novak, JM and Bauer, PJ and Hunt, PG and Karlen, DL}, title = {Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Response to Tillage, Yield, and Climate Change in the Southeastern Coastal Plains.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {663-673}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.05.0190}, pmid = {30025032}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Intensive tillage, low-residue crops, and a warm, humid climate have contributed to soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the southeastern Coastal Plains region. Conservation (CnT) tillage and winter cover cropping are current management practices to rebuild SOC; however, there is sparse long-term field data showing how these management practices perform under variable climate conditions. The objectives of this study were to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, to simulate SOC in the top 15 cm of a loamy sand soil (fine-loamy, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Kandiudult) under conventional (CvT) or CnT tillage to elucidate the impact of projected climate change and crop yields on SOC relative to management and recommend the best agriculture management to increase SOC. Conservation tillage was predicted to increase SOC by 0.10 to 0.64 Mg C ha for six of eight crop rotations compared with CvT by 2033. The addition of a winter crop [rye (L.) or winter wheat (L.)] to a corn (L.)-cotton (L.) or corn-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation increased SOC by 1.47 to 2.55 Mg C ha. A continued increase in crop yields following historical trends could increase SOC by 0.28 Mg C ha, whereas climate change is unlikely to have a significant impact on SOC except in the corn-cotton or corn-soybean rotations where SOC decreased up to 0.15 Mg C ha by 2033. The adoption of CnT and cover crop management with high-residue-producing corn will likely increase SOC accretion in loamy sand soils. Simulation results indicate that soil C saturation may be reached in high-residue rotations, and increasing SOC deeper in the soil profile will be required for long-term SOC accretion beyond 2030.}, }
@article {pmid30025031, year = {2018}, author = {Cavigelli, MA and Nash, PR and Gollany, HT and Rasmann, C and Polumsky, RW and Le, AN and Conklin, AE}, title = {Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Changes in Maryland Are Affected by Tillage, Climate Change, and Crop Yield.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {588-595}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.07.0291}, pmid = {30025031}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Maryland ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks in no-till (NT) and conventionally tilled (CT) agricultural systems is poorly understood. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of projected climate change on SOC to 50-cm soil depth for grain cropping systems in the southern Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. We used SOC and other data from the long-term Farming Systems Project in Beltsville, MD, and CQESTR, a process-based soil C model, to predict the impact of cropping systems and climate (air temperature and precipitation) on SOC for a 40-yr period (2012-2052). Since future crop yields are uncertain, we simulated five scenarios with differing yield levels (crop yields from 1996-2014, and at 10 or 30% greater or lesser than these yields). Without change in climate or crop yields (baseline conditions) CQESTR predicted an increase in SOC of 0.014 and 0.021 Mg ha yr in CT and NT, respectively. Predicted climate change alone resulted in an SOC increase of only 0.002 Mg ha yr in NT and a decrease of 0.017 Mg ha yr in CT. Crop yield declines of 10 and 30% led to SOC decreases between 2 and 8% compared with 2012 levels. Increasing crop yield by 10 and 30% was sufficient to raise SOC 2 and 7%, respectively, above the climate-only scenario under both CT and NT between 2012 and 2052. Results indicate that under these simulated conditions, the negative impact of climate change on SOC levels could be mitigated by crop yield increases.}, }
@article {pmid30024871, year = {2018}, author = {Blum, AJ and Hotez, PJ}, title = {Global "worming": Climate change and its projected general impact on human helminth infections.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e0006370}, pmid = {30024871}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Helminthiasis/epidemiology/*parasitology ; Helminths/*physiology ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid30024475, year = {2018}, author = {Wellbery, C and Sheffield, P and Timmireddy, K and Sarfaty, M and Teherani, A and Fallar, R}, title = {It's Time for Medical Schools to Introduce Climate Change Into Their Curricula.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {93}, number = {12}, pages = {1774-1777}, pmid = {30024475}, issn = {1938-808X}, support = {K23 ES024127/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; L40 ES017745/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES023515/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Curriculum/*trends ; Education, Medical/*methods ; Environmental Health/*education ; Humans ; Schools, Medical/*trends ; }, abstract = {Climate change presents unprecedented health risks and demands universal attention to address them. Multiple intergovernmental organizations, health associations, and health professions schools have recognized the specific importance of preparing physicians to address the health impacts of climate change. However, medical school curricula have not kept pace with this urgent need for targeted training.The authors describe the rationale for inclusion of climate change in medical education and some potential pathways for incorporating this broad topic into physician training and continuing medical education. Reasons include the magnitude and reach of this transboundary issue, the shared responsibility of the U.S. health care sector as a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, and the disproportionate effects of climate change on vulnerable populations. The integration of climate-change-related topics with training of essential physician skills in a rapidly changing environment is feasible because many health topic areas already exist in medical school curricula in which climate change education can be incorporated. To fully integrate the health topics, underlying concepts, and the needed clinical and system-wide translations, content could be included across the scope of training and into continuing medical education and faculty development. The authors provide examples of such an approach to curricular inclusion.}, }
@article {pmid30021321, year = {2018}, author = {Lauria, V and Das, I and Hazra, S and Cazcarro, I and Arto, I and Kay, S and Ofori-Danson, P and Ahmed, M and Hossain, MAR and Barange, M and Fernandes, JA}, title = {Importance of fisheries for food security across three climate change vulnerable deltas.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {640-641}, number = {}, pages = {1566-1577}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.011}, pmid = {30021321}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Fishes ; *Food Supply ; Ghana ; India ; }, abstract = {Deltas are home to a large and growing proportion of the world's population, often living in conditions of extreme poverty. Deltaic ecosystems are ecologically significant as they support high biodiversity and a variety of fisheries, however these coastal environments are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bangladesh/India), the Mahanadi (India), and the Volta (Ghana) are among the most important and populous delta regions in the world and they are all considered at risk of food insecurity and climate change. The fisheries sector is vital for populations that live in the three deltas, as a source of animal protein (in Bangladesh and Ghana around 50-60% of animal protein is supplied by fish while in India this is about 12%) through subsistence fishing, as a source of employment and for the wider economy. The aquaculture sector shows a rapid growth in Bangladesh and India while in Ghana this is just starting to expand. The main exported species differ across countries with Ghana and India dominated by marine fish species, whereas Bangladesh exports shrimps and prawns. Fisheries play a more important part in the economy of Bangladesh and Ghana than for India, both men and women work in fisheries, with a higher proportion of women in the Volta then in the Asian deltas. Economic and integrated modelling using future scenarios suggest that changes in temperature and primary production could reduce fish productivity and fisheries income especially in the Volta and Bangladesh deltas, however these losses could be mitigated by reducing overfishing and improving management. The analysis provided in this paper highlights the importance of applying plans for fisheries management at regional level. Minimizing the impacts of climate change while increasing marine ecosystems resilience must be a priority for scientists and governments before these have dramatic impacts on millions of people's lives.}, }
@article {pmid30021320, year = {2018}, author = {Lipczynska-Kochany, E}, title = {Effect of climate change on humic substances and associated impacts on the quality of surface water and groundwater: A review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {640-641}, number = {}, pages = {1548-1565}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.376}, pmid = {30021320}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Humic substances (HS), a highly transformed part of non-living natural organic matter (NOM), comprise up to 70% of the soil organic matter (SOM), 50-80% of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in surface water, and 25% of DOM in groundwater. They considerably contribute to climate change (CC) by generating greenhouse gases (GHG). On the other hand, CC affects HS, their structure and reactivity. HS important role in global warming has been recognized and extensively studied. However, much less attention has been paid so far to effects on the freshwater quality, which may result from the climate induced impact on HS, and HS interactions with contaminants in soil, surface water and groundwater. It is expected that an increased temperature and enhanced biodegradation of SOM will lead to an increase in the production of DOM, while the flooding and runoff will export it from soil to rivers, lakes, and groundwater. Microbial growth will be stimulated and biodegradation of pollutants in water can be enhanced. However, there may be also negative effects, including an inhibition of solar disinfection in brown lakes. The CC induced desorption from soil and sediments, as well as re-mobilization of metals and organic pollutants are anticipated. In-situ treatment of surface water and groundwater may be affected. Quality of the source freshwater is expected to deteriorate and drinking water production may become more expensive. Many of the possible effects of CC described in this article have yet to be explored and understood. Enormous potential for interesting, multidisciplinary studies in the important research areas has been presented.}, }
@article {pmid30015117, year = {2018}, author = {Hesselschwerdt, J and Wantzen, KM}, title = {Global warming may lower thermal barriers against invasive species in freshwater ecosystems - A study from Lake Constance.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {645}, number = {}, pages = {44-50}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.078}, pmid = {30015117}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Global Warming ; *Introduced Species ; Lakes/*chemistry ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {European freshwater ecosystems are increasingly invaded by exotic animal and plant species. Apart from increased connectivity between previously separated watersheds, the increasing temperature of the hydrosystems favors the spread of exotic species. The freshwater fauna of Central Europe is still shaped by the cold-adapted animal assemblages resulting from the last glaciation. It is less diverse, and the species are putatively less performant competitors, compared to the warm-adapted, species-rich fauna of the Ponto-Caspian realm, from which many current aquatic invaders are coming. Our study analyses potential mechanisms explaining the coexistence between one of the most impacting aquatic invaders of the past decades, the 'killer shrimp' Dikerogammarus villosus and the previously dominating amphipod Gammarus roeselii in Lake Constance, using laboratory predation experiments and field surveys. Our results indicate two key drivers for coexistence: low winter temperatures and the substrate structure of the alga Chara sp. At temperatures below 6 °C, the predation pressure on G. roeselii was strongly reduced; G. roeselii can therefore disperse throughout the littoral in winter, avoiding predation by D. villosus. Artificial heating of a section of the lake shore, however, resulted in local extinction of G. roeselii by D. villosus. The macroalga Chara sp. completely inhibited predation by D. villosus on G. roeselii. Climate change scenarios indicate that global warming might destroy this thermal refuge during winter until 2085. For the survival of G. roeselii it will then be crucial, which part of the Chara population will maintain epigeic plant parts during winter. The complex interplay between thermal and physical refuges for native species in the context of climate change and changing trophic status of freshwater systems, as disentangled by our study, shows that ecosystem management and restoration strategies need to better consider multiple stressors (and their rather complex mitigation strategies).}, }
@article {pmid30014037, year = {2018}, author = {Riddell, EA and Odom, JP and Damm, JD and Sears, MW}, title = {Plasticity reveals hidden resistance to extinction under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {7}, pages = {eaar5471}, pmid = {30014037}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Energy Metabolism ; Extinction, Biological ; Seasons ; Stress, Physiological ; Urodela/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Extinction rates are predicted to rise exponentially under climate warming, but many of these predictions ignore physiological and behavioral plasticity that might buffer species from extinction. We evaluated the potential for physiological acclimatization and behavioral avoidance of poor climatic conditions to lower extinction risk under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity, a region currently predicted to lose most of the salamander habitat due to warming. Our approach integrated experimental physiology and behavior into a mechanistic species distribution model to predict extinction risk based on an individual's capacity to maintain energy balance with and without plasticity. We assessed the sensitivity of extinction risk to body size, behavioral strategies, limitations on energy intake, and physiological acclimatization of water loss and metabolic rate. The field and laboratory experiments indicated that salamanders readily acclimatize water loss rates and metabolic rates in ways that could maintain positive energy balance. Projections with plasticity reduced extinction risk by 72% under climate warming, especially in the core of their range. Further analyses revealed that juveniles might experience the greatest physiological stress under climate warming, but we identified specific physiological adaptations or plastic responses that could minimize the lethal physiological stress imposed on juveniles. We conclude that incorporating plasticity fundamentally alters ecological predictions under climate change by reducing extinction risk in the hotspot of salamander diversity.}, }
@article {pmid30013852, year = {2018}, author = {Riquelme, C and Estay, SA and López, R and Pastore, H and Soto-Gamboa, M and Corti, P}, title = {Protected areas' effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e5222}, pmid = {30013852}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range.<br><br>METHODS: To estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)-RCP4.5 and RCP6.0.<br><br>RESULTS: Based on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km[2] of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86-60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57-64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57-34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79-31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Modeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid30013133, year = {2018}, author = {Metcalfe, DB and Hermans, TDG and Ahlstrand, J and Becker, M and Berggren, M and Björk, RG and Björkman, MP and Blok, D and Chaudhary, N and Chisholm, C and Classen, AT and Hasselquist, NJ and Jonsson, M and Kristensen, JA and Kumordzi, BB and Lee, H and Mayor, JR and Prevéy, J and Pantazatou, K and Rousk, J and Sponseller, RA and Sundqvist, MK and Tang, J and Uddling, J and Wallin, G and Zhang, W and Ahlström, A and Tenenbaum, DE and Abdi, AM}, title = {Patchy field sampling biases understanding of climate change impacts across the Arctic.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {1443-1448}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0612-5}, pmid = {30013133}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Selection Bias ; Spatial Analysis ; }, abstract = {Effective societal responses to rapid climate change in the Arctic rely on an accurate representation of region-specific ecosystem properties and processes. However, this is limited by the scarcity and patchy distribution of field measurements. Here, we use a comprehensive, geo-referenced database of primary field measurements in 1,840 published studies across the Arctic to identify statistically significant spatial biases in field sampling and study citation across this globally important region. We find that 31% of all study citations are derived from sites located within 50 km of just two research sites: Toolik Lake in the USA and Abisko in Sweden. Furthermore, relatively colder, more rapidly warming and sparsely vegetated sites are under-sampled and under-recognized in terms of citations, particularly among microbiology-related studies. The poorly sampled and cited areas, mainly in the Canadian high-Arctic archipelago and the Arctic coastline of Russia, constitute a large fraction of the Arctic ice-free land area. Our results suggest that the current pattern of sampling and citation may bias the scientific consensuses that underpin attempts to accurately predict and effectively mitigate climate change in the region. Further work is required to increase both the quality and quantity of sampling, and incorporate existing literature from poorly cited areas to generate a more representative picture of Arctic climate change and its environmental impacts.}, }
@article {pmid30012226, year = {2018}, author = {Cuthbertson, J and Archer, F and Robertson, A}, title = {Special Report: WADEM Climate Change Position Statement.}, journal = {Prehospital and disaster medicine}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {428-431}, doi = {10.1017/S1049023X18000535}, pmid = {30012226}, issn = {1945-1938}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; *Emergency Medicine ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WADEM; Madison, Wisconsin USA) is a multi-disciplinary professional association whose mission is the global improvement of prehospital and emergency health care, public health, and disaster health and preparedness. In April 2017, the biennial general meeting of the World Congress for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WCDEM) endorsed the WADEM Climate Change Position Statement, which was subsequently published in Prehospital and Disaster Medicine in July 2017. This special report examines literature used and reviews the process of development of this Position Statement as a product of WADEM.Cuthbertson J, Archer F, Robertson A. Special report: WADEM climate change position statement. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(4):428-431.}, }
@article {pmid30008520, year = {2018}, author = {Damert, M and Baumgartner, RJ}, title = {Intra-Sectoral Differences in Climate Change Strategies: Evidence from the Global Automotive Industry.}, journal = {Business strategy and the environment}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {265-281}, pmid = {30008520}, issn = {1099-0836}, abstract = {Companies are increasingly challenged for action on climate change. Most studies on business responses to climate change focus on cross-sector comparisons and neglect intra-sectoral dynamics. This paper investigates the influence of supply chain position and regional affiliation on climate change strategies within a particular industry. We present a generic framework integrating both market and non-market responses to climate change. We argue that climate change strategies comprise several corporate activities that have different foci of interaction and four main objectives: governance, innovation, compensation and legitimation. Using a global sample of 116 automotive companies, we conduct a cluster analysis and identify four types of strategy. We find that the sophistication of automobile manufacturers' strategies significantly differs from that of suppliers. Regional affiliation and firm size prove to be determinants of the strategy type pursued. We cannot find evidence for a relationship between financial performance and a company's strategic approach to climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Business Strategy and the Environment published by ERP Environment and John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd.}, }
@article {pmid30007904, year = {2018}, author = {Lake, IR and Jones, NR and Agnew, M and Goodess, CM and Giorgi, F and Hamaoui-Laguel, L and Semenov, MA and Solmon, F and Storkey, J and Vautard, R and Epstein, MM}, title = {Erratum: "Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe".}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {126}, number = {7}, pages = {079002}, doi = {10.1289/EHP2073}, pmid = {30007904}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1289/EHP173.].}, }
@article {pmid30006980, year = {2018}, author = {Chefaoui, RM and Duarte, CM and Serrão, EA}, title = {Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {4919-4928}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14401}, pmid = {30006980}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {SFRH/BPD/85040/2012//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/International ; //Pew Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {Alismatales/classification/genetics/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Extinction, Biological ; Genetic Variation ; Mediterranean Sea ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well-documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst-case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.}, }
@article {pmid30006620, year = {2018}, author = {Zhu, K and Zhang, J and Niu, S and Chu, C and Luo, Y}, title = {Limits to growth of forest biomass carbon sink under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2709}, pmid = {30006620}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {Faculty Research Grant//University of California, Santa Cruz (UC Santa Cruz)/International ; 31625006//National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)/International ; }, abstract = {Widely recognized as a significant carbon sink, North American forests have experienced a history of recovery and are facing an uncertain future. This growing carbon sink is dictated by recovery from land-use change, with growth trajectory modified by environmental change. To address both processes, we compiled a forest inventory dataset from North America to quantify aboveground biomass growth with stand age across forest types and climate gradients. Here we show, the biomass grows from 90 Mg ha[-1] (2000-2016) to 105 Mg ha[-1] (2020 s), 128 Mg ha[-1] (2050 s), and 146 Mg ha[-1] (2080 s) under climate change scenarios with no further disturbances. Climate change modifies the forest recovery trajectory to some extent, but the overall growth is limited, showing signs of biomass saturation. The future (2080s) biomass will only sequester at most 22% more carbon than the current level. Given such a strong sink has limited growth potential, our ground-based analysis suggests policy changes to sustain the carbon sink.}, }
@article {pmid30004323, year = {2018}, author = {Chersich, MF and Scorgie, F and Rees, H and Wright, CY}, title = {How climate change can fuel listeriosis outbreaks in South Africa.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {108}, number = {6}, pages = {453-454}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2018.v108i6.13274}, pmid = {30004323}, issn = {0256-9574}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Disease Outbreaks/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Food Microbiology ; Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology/microbiology ; Humans ; Listeriosis/*epidemiology/*transmission ; South Africa ; *Water Microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid30003633, year = {2018}, author = {Champion, C and Hobday, AJ and Tracey, SR and Pecl, GT}, title = {Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5440-5453}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14398}, pmid = {30003633}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Community Participation ; Data Collection ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Oceans and Seas ; Pacific Ocean ; Perciformes/*physiology ; Research Design ; }, abstract = {The environmental effects of climate change are predicted to cause distribution shifts in many marine taxa, yet data are often difficult to collect. Quantifying and monitoring species' suitable environmental habitats is a pragmatic approach for assessing changes in species distributions but is underdeveloped for quantifying climate change induced range shifts in marine systems. Specifically, habitat predictions present opportunities for quantifying spatiotemporal distribution changes while accounting for sources of natural climate variation. Here we demonstrate the utility of a marine-based habitat model parameterized using citizen science data and remotely sensed environmental covariates for quantifying shifts in oceanographic habitat suitability over 22 years for a coastal-pelagic fish species in a climate change hotspot. Our analyses account for the effects of natural intra- and interannual climate variability to reveal rapid poleward shifts in core (94.4 km/decade) and poleward edge (108.8 km/decade) oceanographic habitats. Temporal persistence of suitable oceanographic habitat at high latitudes also increased by approximately 3 months over the study period. Our approach demonstrates how marine citizen science data can be used to quantify range shifts, but necessitates shifting focus from species distributions directly, to the distribution of species' environmental habitat preferences.}, }
@article {pmid29996456, year = {2018}, author = {Reino, L and Triviño, M and Beja, P and Araújo, MB and Figueira, R and Segurado, P}, title = {Modelling landscape constraints on farmland bird species range shifts under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {625}, number = {}, pages = {1596-1605}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.007}, pmid = {29996456}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Several studies estimating the effects of global environmental change on biodiversity are focused on climate change. Yet, non-climatic factors such as changes in land cover can also be of paramount importance. This may be particularly important for habitat specialists associated with human-dominated landscapes, where land cover and climate changes may be largely decoupled. Here, we tested this idea by modelling the influence of climate, landscape composition and pattern, on the predicted future (2021-2050) distributions of 21 farmland bird species in the Iberian Peninsula, using boosted regression trees and 10-km resolution presence/absence data. We also evaluated whether habitat specialist species were more affected by landscape factors than generalist species. Overall, this study showed that the contribution of current landscape composition and pattern to the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) was relatively low. However, SDMs built using either climate or climate plus landscape variables yielded very different predictions of future species range shifts and, hence, of the geographical patterns of change in species richness. Our results indicate that open habitat specialist species tend to expand their range, whereas habitat generalist species tend to retract under climate change scenarios. The effect of incorporating landscape factors were particularly marked on open habitat specialists of conservation concern, for which the expected expansion under climate change seems to be severely constrained by land cover change. Overall, results suggest that particular attention should be given to landscape change in addition to climate when modelling the impacts of environmental changes for both farmland specialist and generalist bird distributions.}, }
@article {pmid29995321, year = {2018}, author = {Healy, TM and Brennan, RS and Whitehead, A and Schulte, PM}, title = {Tolerance traits related to climate change resilience are independent and polygenic.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5348-5360}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14386}, pmid = {29995321}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Variation ; Oxygen/metabolism ; Phenotype ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {The resilience of organisms to climate change through adaptive evolution is dependent on the extent of genetically based variation in key phenotypic traits and the nature of genetic associations between them. For aquatic animals, upper thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance are likely to be a important determinants of sensitivity to climate change. To determine the genetic basis of these traits and to detect associations between them, we compared naturally occurring populations of two subspecies of Atlantic killifish, Fundulus heteroclitus, that differ in both thermal and hypoxia tolerance. Multilocus association mapping demonstrated that 47 and 35 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) explained 43.4% and 51.9% of variation in thermal and hypoxia tolerance, respectively, suggesting that genetic mechanisms underlie a substantial proportion of variation in each trait. However, no explanatory SNPs were shared between traits, and upper thermal tolerance varied approximately linearly with latitude, whereas hypoxia tolerance exhibited a steep phenotypic break across the contact zone between the subspecies. These results suggest that upper thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance are neither phenotypically correlated nor genetically associated, and thus that rates of adaptive change in these traits can be independently fine-tuned by natural selection. This modularity of important traits can underpin the evolvability of organisms to complex future environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid29991788, year = {2018}, author = {Thirumalai, K}, title = {A fresh take on ancient climate change in the North Pacific.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {559}, number = {7713}, pages = {185-186}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05614-y}, pmid = {29991788}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fresh Water ; Oceans and Seas ; Pacific Ocean ; }, }
@article {pmid29990916, year = {2018}, author = {Shaffril, HAM and Krauss, SE and Samsuddin, SF}, title = {A systematic review on Asian's farmers' adaptation practices towards climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {683-695}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.349}, pmid = {29990916}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods/trends ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; Farmers/*psychology ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change in Asia is affecting farmers' daily routines. Much of the focus surrounding climate change has targeted the economic and environmental repercussions on farming. Few systematic reviews have been carried out on the social impacts of climate change among farmers in Asia. The present article set out to analyse the existing literature on Asian farmers' adaptation practices towards the impacts of climate change. Guided by the PRISMA Statement (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) review method, a systematic review of the Scopus and Web of Science databases identified 38 related studies. Further review of these articles resulted in six main themes - crop management, irrigation and water management, farm management, financial management, physical infrastructure management and social activities. These six themes further produced a total of 35 sub-themes. Several recommendations are highlighted related to conducting more qualitative studies, to have specific and a standard systematic review method for guide research synthesis in context of climate change adaptation and to practice complimentary searching techniques such as citation tracking, reference searching, snowballing and contacting experts.}, }
@article {pmid29990360, year = {2018}, author = {Gateau-Rey, L and Tanner, EVJ and Rapidel, B and Marelli, JP and Royaert, S}, title = {Climate change could threaten cocoa production: Effects of 2015-16 El Niño-related drought on cocoa agroforests in Bahia, Brazil.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {e0200454}, pmid = {29990360}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agaricales ; Brazil ; *Cacao ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Dehydration ; *Droughts ; *El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Farms ; Forestry ; Forests ; Mycoses ; Plant Diseases ; Rain ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Climate models predict a possible increase in the frequency of strong climate events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which in parts of the tropics are the cause of exceptional droughts, these threaten global food production. Agroforestry systems are often suggested as promising diversification options to increase farmers' resilience to extreme climatic events. In the Northeastern state of Bahia, where most Brazilian cocoa is grown in wildlife-friendly agroforests, ENSOs cause severe droughts which negatively affect forest and agriculture. Cocoa (Theobroma cacao) is described as being sensitive to drought but there are no field-studies of the effect of ENSO-related drought on adult cocoa trees in the America's; there is one study of an experimentally-imposed drought in Indonesia which resulted in 10 to 46% yield loss. In our study, in randomly chosen farms in Bahia, Brazil, we measured the effect of the 2015-16 severe ENSO, which caused an unprecedented drought in cocoa agroforests. We show that drought caused high cocoa tree mortality (15%) and severely decreased cocoa yield (89%); the drought also increased infection rate of the chronic fungal disease witches' broom (Moniliophthora perniciosa). Ours findings showed that Brazilian cocoa agroforests are at risk and that increasing frequency of strong droughts are likely to cause decreased cocoa yields in the coming decades. Furthermore, because cocoa, like many crops, is grown somewhat beyond its climatic limits, it and other crops could be the 'canaries in the coalmine' warning of forthcoming major drought effects on semi-natural and natural vegetation.}, }
@article {pmid29990343, year = {2018}, author = {Sorensen, C and Murray, V and Lemery, J and Balbus, J}, title = {Climate change and women's health: Impacts and policy directions.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002603}, pmid = {29990343}, issn = {1549-1676}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Global Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Health Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; *Policy Making ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Sex Factors ; Women's Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {In a Policy Forum, Cecilia Sorensen and colleagues discuss the implications of climate change for women's health.}, }
@article {pmid29989167, year = {2018}, author = {Bell, JJ and Rovellini, A and Davy, SK and Taylor, MW and Fulton, EA and Dunn, MR and Bennett, HM and Kandler, NM and Luter, HM and Webster, NS}, title = {Climate change alterations to ecosystem dominance: how might sponge-dominated reefs function?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {9}, pages = {1920-1931}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2446}, pmid = {29989167}, issn = {0012-9658}, support = {//Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Carbon ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic stressors are impacting ecological systems across the world. Of particular concern are the recent rapid changes occurring in coral reef systems. With ongoing degradation from both local and global stressors, future reefs are likely to function differently from current coral-dominated ecosystems. Determining key attributes of future reef states is critical to reliably predict outcomes for ecosystem service provision. Here we explore the impacts of changing sponge dominance on coral reefs. Qualitative modelling of reef futures suggests that changing sponge dominance due to increased sponge abundance will have different outcomes for other trophic levels compared with increased sponge dominance as a result of declining coral abundance. By exploring uncertainty in the model outcomes we identify the need to (1) quantify changes in carbon flow through sponges, (2) determine the importance of food limitation for sponges, (3) assess the ubiquity of the recently described "sponge loop," (4) determine the competitive relationships between sponges and other benthic taxa, particularly algae, and (5) understand how changing dominance of other organisms alters trophic pathways and energy flows through ecosystems. Addressing these knowledge gaps will facilitate development of more complex models that assess functional attributes of sponge-dominated reef ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid29988420, year = {2018}, author = {Harvey, BJ and Nash, KL and Blanchard, JL and Edwards, DP}, title = {Ecosystem-based management of coral reefs under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {6354-6368}, pmid = {29988420}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Coral reefs provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people as well as harbour some of the highest regions of biodiversity in the ocean. However, overexploitation, land-use change and other local anthropogenic threats to coral reefs have left many degraded. Additionally, coral reefs are faced with the dual emerging threats of ocean warming and acidification due to rising CO 2 emissions, with dire predictions that they will not survive the century. This review evaluates the impacts of climate change on coral reef organisms, communities and ecosystems, focusing on the interactions between climate change factors and local anthropogenic stressors. It then explores the shortcomings of existing management and the move towards ecosystem-based management and resilience thinking, before highlighting the need for climate change-ready marine protected areas (MPAs), reduction in local anthropogenic stressors, novel approaches such as human-assisted evolution and the importance of sustainable socialecological systems. It concludes that designation of climate change-ready MPAs, integrated with other management strategies involving stakeholders and participation at multiple scales such as marine spatial planning, will be required to maximise coral reef resilience under climate change. However, efforts to reduce carbon emissions are critical if the long-term efficacy of local management actions is to be maintained and coral reefs are to survive.}, }
@article {pmid29986484, year = {2018}, author = {Madrigano, J and Lane, K and Petrovic, N and Ahmed, M and Blum, M and Matte, T}, title = {Awareness, Risk Perception, and Protective Behaviors for Extreme Heat and Climate Change in New York City.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {29986484}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; *Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; *Health Surveys ; Heat Stress Disorders/*prevention &amp; control/psychology ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; New York City ; Risk Factors ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Preventing heat-related illness and death requires an understanding of who is at risk and why, and options for intervention. We sought to understand the drivers of socioeconomic disparities in heat-related vulnerability in New York City (NYC), the perceived risk of heat exposure and climate change, and barriers to protective behaviors. A random digit dial telephone survey of 801 NYC adults aged 18 and older was conducted from 22 September[-]1 October, 2015. Thirteen percent of the population did not possess an air conditioner (AC), and another 15% used AC never/infrequently. In adjusted models, odds of not possessing AC were greater for non-Hispanic blacks compared with other races/ethnicities, odds ratio (OR) = 2.0 (95% CI: 1.1, 3.5), and for those with low annual household income, OR = 3.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 5.5). Only 12% reported going to a public place with AC if they could not keep cool at home. While low-income individuals were less likely to be aware of heat warnings, they were more likely to be concerned that heat could make them ill and that climate change would affect their health than participants with a higher household income, OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0, 2.3). In NYC, lack of access to AC partially explains disparities in heat-related health outcomes. Our results point to opportunities for knowledge building and engagement on heat-health awareness and climate change adaptation that can be applied in NYC and other metropolitan areas to improve and target public health prevention efforts.}, }
@article {pmid29984270, year = {2018}, author = {Coates, SJ and Fox, LP}, title = {Disseminated coccidioidomycosis as a harbinger of climate change.}, journal = {JAAD case reports}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {424-425}, pmid = {29984270}, issn = {2352-5126}, }
@article {pmid29983005, year = {2019}, author = {Dusenge, ME and Duarte, AG and Way, DA}, title = {Plant carbon metabolism and climate change: elevated CO2 and temperature impacts on photosynthesis, photorespiration and respiration.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {221}, number = {1}, pages = {32-49}, doi = {10.1111/nph.15283}, pmid = {29983005}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {//Ontario Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science/International ; //Canadian Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council/International ; 200091/2015-8//CNPQ/International ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; Plant Transpiration ; Plants/*metabolism ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Contents Summary 32 I. The importance of plant carbon metabolism for climate change 32 II. Rising atmospheric CO2 and carbon metabolism 33 III. Rising temperatures and carbon metabolism 37 IV. Thermal acclimation responses of carbon metabolic processes can be best understood when studied together 38 V. Will elevated CO2 offset warming-induced changes in carbon metabolism? 40 VI. No plant is an island: water and nutrient limitations define plant responses to climate drivers 41 VII. Conclusions 42 Acknowledgements 42 References 42 Appendix A1 48 SUMMARY: Plant carbon metabolism is impacted by rising CO2 concentrations and temperatures, but also feeds back onto the climate system to help determine the trajectory of future climate change. Here we review how photosynthesis, photorespiration and respiration are affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate warming, both separately and in combination. We also compile data from the literature on plants grown at multiple temperatures, focusing on net CO2 assimilation rates and leaf dark respiration rates measured at the growth temperature (Agrowth and Rgrowth , respectively). Our analyses show that the ratio of Agrowth to Rgrowth is generally homeostatic across a wide range of species and growth temperatures, and that species that have reduced Agrowth at higher growth temperatures also tend to have reduced Rgrowth , while species that show stimulations in Agrowth under warming tend to have higher Rgrowth in the hotter environment. These results highlight the need to study these physiological processes together to better predict how vegetation carbon metabolism will respond to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29981997, year = {2018}, author = {Shrestha, S}, title = {Editorial of special issue on climate change impact on water environment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {474}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.031}, pmid = {29981997}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid29981032, year = {2018}, author = {Williams, L}, title = {Climate change, colonialism, and women's well-being in Canada: what is to be done?.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {109}, number = {2}, pages = {268-271}, pmid = {29981032}, issn = {1920-7476}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Colonialism ; Female ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Male ; Sex Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Women's Health ; }, abstract = {The impacts of accelerating climate change across Canada are unequally distributed between populations and regions. Emerging evidence shows climate change and resultant policies to be worsening gendered social and economic inequities between women and men, with women's participation largely absent in climate change research and decision-making. These dynamics are resulting in negative impacts for women's well-being, with Indigenous and historically marginalized women at increased risk of experiencing health inequities as a result of climate change. To date, public health discourse has largely failed to incorporate gender as a key determinant of health in discussions of climate change impacts on populations. Paralleling this lack of development, the entangled relationship between climate and colonialism tends to be subsumed under the term "Aboriginality" within health determinants discourse. This commentary on gender and climate change in Canada is framed within a radical intersectional approach as an alternative course of public health analysis and action aimed at addressing resulting health and power inequities. Following an overview of evidence regarding the gendered impacts of climate change on women's work, roles, agency, and well-being, several possible public health action areas on climate change and gender are highlighted as necessary components for resilient communities capable of meeting contemporary challenges.}, }
@article {pmid29980966, year = {2018}, author = {Salazar-Parra, C and Aranjuelo, I and Pascual, I and Aguirreolea, J and Sánchez-Díaz, M and Irigoyen, JJ and Araus, JL and Morales, F}, title = {Is vegetative area, photosynthesis, or grape C uploading involved in the climate change-related grape sugar/anthocyanin decoupling in Tempranillo?.}, journal = {Photosynthesis research}, volume = {138}, number = {1}, pages = {115-128}, pmid = {29980966}, issn = {1573-5079}, support = {BFU2008-01405/BFI//Science and Innovation Spanish Ministry/ ; AGL2014-56075-C2-1-R//Ministerio de Econom&#xed;a y Competitividad/ ; A03 group//Arag&#xf3;n Government/ ; IT-932-16//Basque Government/ ; }, mesh = {Anthocyanins/*metabolism ; Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Carbon Isotopes/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Photosynthesis/*physiology ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Sugars/metabolism ; Vitis/growth &amp; development/metabolism/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Foreseen climate change is expected to impact on grape composition, both sugar and pigment content. We tested the hypothesis that interactions between main factors associated with climate change (elevated CO2, elevated temperature, and water deficit) decouple sugars and anthocyanins, and explored the possible involvement of vegetative area, photosynthesis, and grape C uploading on the decoupling. Tempranillo grapevine fruit-bearing cuttings were exposed to CO2 (700 vs. 400 ppm), temperature (ambient vs. + 4 °C), and irrigation levels (partial vs. full) in temperature-gradient greenhouses. In a search for mechanistic insights into the underlying processes, experiments 1 and 2 were designed to maximize photosynthesis and enlarge leaf area range among treatments, whereas plant growth was manipulated in order to deliberately down-regulate photosynthesis and control vegetative area in experiments 3 and 4. Towards this aim, treatments were applied either from fruit set to maturity with free vegetation and fully irrigated or at 5-8% of pot capacity (experiments 1 and 2), or from veraison to maturity with controlled vegetation and fully irrigated or at 40% of pot capacity (experiments 3 and 4). Modification of air [13]C isotopic composition under elevated CO2 enabled the further characterization of whole C fixation period and C partitioning to grapes. Increases of the grape sugars-to-anthocyanins ratio were highly and positively correlated with photosynthesis and grape [13]C labeling, but not with vegetative area. Evidence is presented for photosynthesis, from fruit set to veraison, and grape C uploading, from veraison to maturity, as key processes involved in the establishment and development, respectively, of the grape sugars to anthocyanins decoupling.}, }
@article {pmid29980735, year = {2018}, author = {Muller, M}, title = {Cape Town's drought: don't blame climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {559}, number = {7713}, pages = {174-176}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05649-1}, pmid = {29980735}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Australia ; Brazil ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Water Resources/economics/methods/trends ; *Droughts ; Humans ; *Politics ; South Africa ; Spain ; *Water Supply/economics/methods ; }, }
@article {pmid29980085, year = {2018}, author = {Leng, G}, title = {Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C reduces future risk of yield loss in the United States: A probabilistic modeling approach.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {644}, number = {}, pages = {52-59}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.344}, pmid = {29980085}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study assess the possible outcomes of yield changes in the United States which is responsible for 40% of global maize supply under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios. Instead of providing deterministic estimates, this study introduces a probability-based approach that allow for examination of the associated probability of each outcome, which has great implications for decision-makings. Results show distinct spatial patterns in future yield loss risk associated with temperature rise at the county scale, with highest probability in central and southeastern US, and lowest risk in western US and high production regions such as Iowa. Comparing the estimates under 1.5 °C global warming against that in 2.0 °C warming indicates that keeping global warming within 1.5 °C has great benefits for reducing future yield loss risk. Based on the ensemble mean of 97 climate model simulations, the risk of yield dropping below historical long-term mean is projected to decrease from 81% to 75% for the country as a whole. Such benefit is more evident when considering the risk of yield reduction by 10% and 20%, which is expected to decrease by 25% and 28%, respectively. This suggests that constraining global temperature rise to 1.5 °C has more benefits for reducing extreme yield reductions. Spatially, keeping global warming within 1.5 °C would benefit more in Missouri, South Dakota, Eastern Kansas, Southern Texas and southeastern part of the country than other regions, highlighting the spatially variable benefits of climate mitigation efforts. The analysis framework introduced in this study can also be easily extended to other regions and crops. The results of this study highlight the areas where maize yield is most vulnerable to temperature rise, and the spatially variable benefits for reducing yield loss risk by keeping global warming within 1.5 °C.}, }
@article {pmid29979762, year = {2018}, author = {Kerr, JR and Wilson, MS}, title = {Changes in perceived scientific consensus shift beliefs about climate change and GM food safety.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {e0200295}, pmid = {29979762}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Attitude ; *Climate Change ; *Consensus ; Female ; *Food Safety ; *Food, Genetically Modified ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Perception ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus, a sizable minority of people doubt that human activity is causing climate change. Communicating the existence of a scientific consensus has been suggested as a way to correct individuals' misperceptions about human-caused climate change and other scientific issues, though empirical support is mixed. We report an experiment in which psychology students were presented with consensus information about two issues, and subsequently reported their perception of the level of consensus and extent of their endorsement of those issues. We find that messages about scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change and the safety of genetically modified food shift perceptions of scientific consensus. Using mediation models we also show that, for both these issues, high consensus messages also increase reported personal agreement with the scientific consensus, mediated by changes in perceptions of a scientific consensus. This confirms the role of perceived consensus in informing personal beliefs about climate change, though results indicate the impact of single, one-off messages may be limited.}, }
@article {pmid29975596, year = {2019}, author = {Evans, GW}, title = {Projected Behavioral Impacts of Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of psychology}, volume = {70}, number = {}, pages = {449-474}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-psych-010418-103023}, pmid = {29975596}, issn = {1545-2085}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Climatic Processes ; *Environmental Pollution ; *Human Development ; Humans ; *Interpersonal Relations ; *Mental Health ; *Natural Disasters ; *Recreation ; }, abstract = {The projected behavioral impacts of global climate change emanate from environmental changes including temperature elevation, extreme weather events, and rising air pollution. Negative affect, interpersonal and intergroup conflict, and possibly psychological distress increase with rising temperature. Droughts, floods, and severe storms diminish quality of life, elevate stress, produce psychological distress, and may elevate interpersonal and intergroup conflict. Recreational opportunities are compromised by extreme weather, and children may suffer delayed cognitive development. Elevated pollutants concern citizens and may accentuate psychological distress. Outdoor recreational activity is curtailed by ambient pollutants. Limitations and issues in need of further investigation include the following: lack of data on direct experience with climate change rather than indirect assessments related to projected changes; poor spatial resolution in environmental exposures and behavioral assessments; few rigorous quasi-experimental studies; overreliance on self-reports of behavioral outcomes; little consideration of moderator effects; and scant investigation of underlying psychosocial processes to explain projected behavioral impacts.}, }
@article {pmid29974714, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, TY and Wu, JG and Wang, L}, title = {[The effects of climate change on isoprene emission rate from leaves of Pleioblastus amarus in different regions.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {2028-2042}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201806.031}, pmid = {29974714}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Butadienes/*analysis ; China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Hemiterpenes/*analysis ; Pentanes/*analysis ; Plant Leaves/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios produced by the global climate model NorESM1-M and plant isoprene emissions model, the effects of climate change on the isoprene emission rate from leaves of Pleioblastus amarus in Yixing City of Jiangsu Province, Longmen County of Guangdong Province, Yulong Naxi Autonomous County of Yunnan Province and Wanyuan City of Sichuan Province were simulated. The differences of isoprene emission rate from leaves of P. amarus distributed in four regions were compared under future climate change scenarios. The results showed that mean annual air temperature would increase, annual precipitation and radiation intensity would greatly fluctuate, with the coexistence of increasing and decreasing trends in the four regions. In the baseline scenario, daily mean emission rate of isoprene from leaves of P. amarus was 71-470 μg·g[-1]·d[-1], and annual mean value was 25954-171231 μg·g[-1]·a[-1]. The daily and annual emission rates in the four regions decreased with the order of Longmen, Yixing, Wanyuan and Yulong. Compared with the baseline scenario, daily mean emission rate of isoprene from leaves of P. amarus was about 4-45 μg·g[-1]·d[-1] higher in future climate change scenario, and which was about 23, 29, 4, and 14 μg·g[-1]·d[-1] higher than that in baseline in Yixing, Longmen, Yulong and Wanyuan, respectively. In addition, the emission rate of isoprene from leaves of P. amarus was more than 5% higher in the future climate change scenario than that in the baseline scenario, which was higher in Wanyuan and Yixing (>13%) than and lower in Longmen and Yulong (>5%). All the four regions reached the highest rate under RCP8.5 scenario (increased by about 11%-18%). Compared with the baseline scenario, annual emission rate of isoprene in the future climate change scenario was about 1500-17000 μg·g[-1]·a[-1], and which was about 8560-13208 μg·g[-1]·a[-1] higher in Yixing, 10862-16131 μg·g[-1]·a[-1] higher in Longmen, 1574-3028 μg·g[-1]·a[-1] higher in Yulong, 5288-8532 μg·g[-1]·a[-1] higher in Wanyuan. In addition, the increasing rate of annual isoprene emission rates was 6%-14%. The rates in Yixing (8%-12%) and Wanyuan (8%-14%) were higher than that in the other two regions, the rate in Yulong (6%-12% increase) was the lowest, with all four regions increasing substantially (9%-14%) under RCP8.5 scenario. The results suggested that climate change would have different effects on the rate of isoprene emissions from leaves of P. amarus distributed in diffe-rent regions.}, }
@article {pmid29974629, year = {2018}, author = {Carroll, W and Graham, N and Lang, MK and Yunker, Z and McCartney, KD}, title = {The Corporate Elite and the Architecture of Climate Change Denial: A Network Analysis of Carbon Capital's Reach into Civil Society.}, journal = {Canadian review of sociology = Revue canadienne de sociologie}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, pages = {425-450}, doi = {10.1111/cars.12211}, pmid = {29974629}, issn = {1755-618X}, abstract = {This study employs social network analysis to map the Canadian network of carbon-capital corporations whose boards interlock with key knowledge-producing civil society organizations, including think tanks, industry associations, business advocacy organizations, universities, and research institutes. We find a pervasive pattern of carbon-sector reach into these domains of civil society, forming a single, connected network that is centered in Alberta yet linked to the central-Canadian corporate elite through hegemonic capitalist organizations, including major financial companies. This structure provides the architecture for a "soft" denial regime that acknowledges climate change while protecting the continued flow of profit to fossil fuel and related companies.}, }
@article {pmid29971745, year = {2018}, author = {Paul, S and Deka, RC and Gour, NK}, title = {Kinetics, mechanism, and global warming potentials of HFO-1234yf initiated by O3 molecules and NO3 radicals: insights from quantum study.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {26}, pages = {26144-26156}, pmid = {29971745}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {F.4-2/2006(BSR)/CH/16-17/0152//University Grants Commission/ ; }, mesh = {Fluorocarbons/*chemistry ; *Global Warming ; Kinetics ; Nitrates/*chemistry ; Oxidation-Reduction ; Ozone/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {In the present investigation, the oxidation of HFO-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) with O3 molecule and NO3 radical is studied by quantum chemical methods. The possible reaction pathways of the titled molecule with O3 molecule and NO3 radical are analyzed using M06-2X meta-hybrid density functional with the 6-311++G(d,p) basis set. We have further employed a series of single-point energy calculations by using a potentially high-level couple cluster method with single and double excitations, including perturbative corrections ((CCSD(T)) at the same basis set. The addition reaction of HFO-1234yf with O3 molecule is initiated by the formation of primary ozonide complex, which leads to the formation of various carbonyl compounds and Criegee intermediates. The calculated energy barriers and thermochemical parameters inferred that decomposition of C˙H2OO˙ and CF3CFO is slightly more preferred over the formation of CF3C˙FOO˙ and CH2O. Further, the NO3 radical addition at α- and β-sits of CF3CF〓CH2 molecule is analyzed in details. The individual and overall rate constants for each reaction pathways are calculated by using canonical transition state theory over the temperature range of 250-450 K. We have observed that the computed rate constants are in good agreement with the available experimental data. Atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials of the HFO-1234yf are also reported in this manuscript.}, }
@article {pmid29969461, year = {2018}, author = {Abel, DW and Holloway, T and Harkey, M and Meier, P and Ahl, D and Limaye, VS and Patz, JA}, title = {Air-quality-related health impacts from climate change and from adaptation of cooling demand for buildings in the eastern United States: An interdisciplinary modeling study.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {e1002599}, pmid = {29969461}, issn = {1549-1676}, support = {R21 ES020232/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Air Conditioning/*adverse effects/economics ; Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; *Air Pollution/economics ; Cause of Death ; Computer Simulation ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Facility Design and Construction/economics ; Female ; *Global Warming/economics/mortality ; Health Status ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Theoretical ; Numerical Analysis, Computer-Assisted ; Particulate Matter/*adverse effects ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change negatively impacts human health through heat stress and exposure to worsened air pollution, amongst other pathways. Indoor use of air conditioning can be an effective strategy to reduce heat exposure. However, increased air conditioning use increases emissions of air pollutants from power plants, in turn worsening air quality and human health impacts. We used an interdisciplinary linked model system to quantify the impacts of heat-driven adaptation through building cooling demand on air-quality-related health outcomes in a representative mid-century climate scenario.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a modeling system that included downscaling historical and future climate data with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, simulating building electricity demand using the Regional Building Energy Simulation System (RBESS), simulating power sector production and emissions using MyPower, simulating ambient air quality using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and calculating the incidence of adverse health outcomes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). We performed simulations for a representative present-day climate scenario and 2 representative mid-century climate scenarios, with and without exacerbated power sector emissions from adaptation in building energy use. We find that by mid-century, climate change alone can increase fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations by 58.6% (2.50 &#x3bc;g/m3) and ozone (O3) by 14.9% (8.06 parts per billion by volume [ppbv]) for the month of July. A larger change is found when comparing the present day to the combined impact of climate change and increased building energy use, where PM2.5 increases 61.1% (2.60 &#x3bc;g/m3) and O3 increases 15.9% (8.64 ppbv). Therefore, 3.8% of the total increase in PM2.5 and 6.7% of the total increase in O3 is attributable to adaptive behavior (extra air conditioning use). Health impacts assessment finds that for a mid-century climate change scenario (with adaptation), annual PM2.5-related adult mortality increases by 13,547 deaths (14 concentration-response functions with mean incidence range of 1,320 to 26,481, approximately US$126 billion cost) and annual O3-related adult mortality increases by 3,514 deaths (3 functions with mean incidence range of 2,175 to 4,920, approximately US$32.5 billion cost), calculated as a 3-month summer estimate based on July modeling. Air conditioning adaptation accounts for 654 (range of 87 to 1,245) of the PM2.5-related deaths (approximately US$6 billion cost, a 4.8% increase above climate change impacts alone) and 315 (range of 198 to 438) of the O3-related deaths (approximately US$3 billion cost, an 8.7% increase above climate change impacts alone). Limitations of this study include modeling only a single month, based on 1 model-year of future climate simulations. As a result, we do not project the future, but rather describe the potential damages from interactions arising between climate, energy use, and air quality.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study examines the contribution of future air-pollution-related health damages that are caused by the power sector through heat-driven air conditioning adaptation in buildings. Results show that without intervention, approximately 5%-9% of exacerbated air-pollution-related mortality will be due to increases in power sector emissions from heat-driven building electricity demand. This analysis highlights the need for cleaner energy sources, energy efficiency, and energy conservation to meet our growing dependence on building cooling systems and simultaneously mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29968827, year = {2018}, author = {Makri, A}, title = {Cyprus asserts itself as regional hub for climate-change research.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {559}, number = {7712}, pages = {15-16}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05528-9}, pmid = {29968827}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Academies and Institutes/*organization &amp; administration ; *Climate Change ; Cyprus ; European Union ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; Mediterranean Region ; Middle East ; Research/*organization &amp; administration/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid29967461, year = {2018}, author = {Abou Chakra, M and Bumann, S and Schenk, H and Oschlies, A and Traulsen, A}, title = {Immediate action is the best strategy when facing uncertain climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2566}, pmid = {29967461}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Mitigating the detrimental effects of climate change is a collective problem that requires global cooperation. However, achieving cooperation is difficult since benefits are obtained in the future. The so-called collective-risk game, devised to capture dangerous climate change, showed that catastrophic economic losses promote cooperation when individuals know the timing of a single climatic event. In reality, the impact and timing of climate change is not certain; moreover, recurrent events are possible. Thus, we devise a game where the risk of a collective loss can recur across multiple rounds. We find that wait and see behavior is successful only if players know when they need to contribute to avoid danger and if contributions can eliminate the risks. In all other cases, act quickly is more successful, especially under uncertainty and the possibility of repeated losses. Furthermore, we incorporate influential factors such as wealth inequality and heterogeneity in risks. Even under inequality individuals should contribute early, as long as contributions have the potential to decrease risk. Most importantly, we find that catastrophic scenarios are not necessary to induce such immediate collective action.}, }
@article {pmid29967319, year = {2018}, author = {van de Velde, S and Mills, BJW and Meysman, FJR and Lenton, TM and Poulton, SW}, title = {Early Palaeozoic ocean anoxia and global warming driven by the evolution of shallow burrowing.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2554}, pmid = {29967319}, issn = {2041-1723}, support = {PhD Aspirant//Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (Research Foundation Flanders)/International ; Academic Fellowship//University of Leeds/International ; ERC Grant 306933//EC | European Research Council (ERC)/International ; VICI grant 016.VICI.170.072//Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research)/International ; NE/P013651//Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/International ; NE/P013651//Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/International ; Wolfson Research Merit Award//Royal Society/International ; }, abstract = {The evolution of burrowing animals forms a defining event in the history of the Earth. It has been hypothesised that the expansion of seafloor burrowing during the Palaeozoic altered the biogeochemistry of the oceans and atmosphere. However, whilst potential impacts of bioturbation on the individual phosphorus, oxygen and sulphur cycles have been considered, combined effects have not been investigated, leading to major uncertainty over the timing and magnitude of the Earth system response to the evolution of bioturbation. Here we integrate the evolution of bioturbation into the COPSE model of global biogeochemical cycling, and compare quantitative model predictions to multiple geochemical proxies. Our results suggest that the advent of shallow burrowing in the early Cambrian contributed to a global low-oxygen state, which prevailed for ~100 million years. This impact of bioturbation on global biogeochemistry likely affected animal evolution through expanded ocean anoxia, high atmospheric CO2 levels and global warming.}, }
@article {pmid29966379, year = {2018}, author = {Ghazali, DA and Guericolas, M and Thys, F and Sarasin, F and Arcos González, P and Casalino, E}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Disaster and Emergency Medicine Focusing on Mitigation Disruptive Effects: an International Perspective.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {29966379}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; *Emergency Medicine ; Humans ; *Internationality ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, climate change has been responsible for an increase in the average temperature of the troposphere and of the oceans, with consequences on the frequency and intensity of many extreme weather phenomena. Climate change’s effects on natural disasters can be expected to induce a rise in humanitarian crises. In addition, it will surely impact the population’s long-term general health, especially among the most fragile. There are foreseeable health risks that both ambulatory care organizations and hospitals will face as global temperatures rise. These risks include the geographic redistribution of infectious (particularly zoonotic) diseases, an increase in cardiac and respiratory illnesses, as well as a host of other health hazards. Some of these risks have been detailed for most developed countries as well as for some developing countries. Using these existing risk assessments as a template, organizational innovations as well as implementation strategies should be proposed to mitigate the disruptive effects of these health risks on emergency departments and by extension, reduce the negative impact of climate change on the populations they serve.}, }
@article {pmid29963745, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, L and Tian, F and Wang, Y and Wu, Z and Schurgers, G and Fensholt, R}, title = {Acceleration of global vegetation greenup from combined effects of climate change and human land management.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {5484-5499}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14369}, pmid = {29963745}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Forestry ; Humans ; *Plant Development ; Remote Sensing Technology ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Global warming and human land management have greatly influenced vegetation growth through both changes in spring phenology and photosynthetic primary production. This will presumably impact the velocity of vegetation greenup (Vgreenup, the daily rate of changes in vegetation productivity during greenup period), yet little is currently known about the spatio-temporal patterns of Vgreenup of global vegetation. Here, we define Vgreenup as the ratio of the amplitude of greenup (Agreenup) to the duration of greenup (Dgreenup) and derive global Vgreenup from 34-year satellite leaf area index (LAI) observations to study spatio-temporal dynamics of Vgreenup at the global, hemispheric, and ecosystem scales. We find that 19.9% of the pixels analyzed (n = 1,175,453) experienced significant trends toward higher greenup rates by an average of 0.018 m[2] m[-2] day[-1] for 1982-2015 as compared to 8.6% of pixels with significant negative trends (p < 0.05). Global distribution and dynamics of Vgreenup show high spatial heterogeneity and ecosystem-specific patterns, which is primarily determined by the high spatial variation in Agreenup, while the temporal dynamics of Vgreenup are directly controlled by both changes in Dgreenup and Agreenup. Areas with the largest Vgreenup and largest positive trends are both observed in deciduous and mixed forests as compared to nonforest ecosystems showing both lower Vgreenup and trends. For nonforest ecosystems, human-managed ecosystems (e.g., rangelands and rainfed croplands) exhibited higher Vgreenup and positive trends than those of natural counterparts, suggesting strong imprints of human land management on terrestrial ecosystem functioning. Globally, warming has accelerated Vgreenup in temperature-constrained high latitude forest ecosystems and arctic regions, but decelerated Vgreenup in temperate and arid/semiarid areas. These results suggest that the combined effects of climate change and human land management have greatly accelerated global vegetation greenup, with important implications for changes in terrestrial ecosystem functioning and global carbon cycling.}, }
@article {pmid29963621, year = {2018}, author = {Shan, Y and Guan, D and Hubacek, K and Zheng, B and Davis, SJ and Jia, L and Liu, J and Liu, Z and Fromer, N and Mi, Z and Meng, J and Deng, X and Li, Y and Lin, J and Schroeder, H and Weisz, H and Schellnhuber, HJ}, title = {City-level climate change mitigation in China.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {6}, pages = {eaaq0390}, pmid = {29963621}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; Cities ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Geography ; Industry ; }, abstract = {As national efforts to reduce CO2 emissions intensify, policy-makers need increasingly specific, subnational information about the sources of CO2 and the potential reductions and economic implications of different possible policies. This is particularly true in China, a large and economically diverse country that has rapidly industrialized and urbanized and that has pledged under the Paris Agreement that its emissions will peak by 2030. We present new, city-level estimates of CO2 emissions for 182 Chinese cities, decomposed into 17 different fossil fuels, 46 socioeconomic sectors, and 7 industrial processes. We find that more affluent cities have systematically lower emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), supported by imports from less affluent, industrial cities located nearby. In turn, clusters of industrial cities are supported by nearby centers of coal or oil extraction. Whereas policies directly targeting manufacturing and electric power infrastructure would drastically undermine the GDP of industrial cities, consumption-based policies might allow emission reductions to be subsidized by those with greater ability to pay. In particular, sector-based analysis of each city suggests that technological improvements could be a practical and effective means of reducing emissions while maintaining growth and the current economic structure and energy system. We explore city-level emission reductions under three scenarios of technological progress to show that substantial reductions (up to 31%) are possible by updating a disproportionately small fraction of existing infrastructure.}, }
@article {pmid29960228, year = {2018}, author = {Ahn, JM and Kwon, HG and Yang, DS and Kim, YS}, title = {Assessing environmental flows of coordinated operation of dams and weirs in the Geum River basin under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {643}, number = {}, pages = {912-925}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.225}, pmid = {29960228}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted frequent and severe droughts and floods caused by irregular climatic conditions in the future, making water resources management difficult. Within the field of integrated watershed management, the concept of 'environmental flow' is being increasingly studied. In Korea, the Four Major Rivers Restoration Project was carried out as part of the plan to manage future water resources, particularly in response to climate change. In order to improve comprehensive water resources management, there is an interest in integrating into the operation of the existing dams the multi-functional weirs constructed under the said project. To date, there is an absence of studies comprehensively considering climate change, run-off volume, reservoir operations, and environmental flow, with most of the existing studies focusing only on one or the other of these factors. In this study, we presented a method to evaluate the river environment that considers all the said factors. To evaluate how environmental flow is influenced by the changes in river flow due to climate change and hydraulic structure operation, the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) was used as the hydrological model, HEC-ResSim was used as the hydraulic structures operational model, and the Global Environmental Flow Calculator (GEFC) was used as the method to evaluate environmental flows. RCP climate change scenarios, provided by the Climate Change Information Center (CCIC), a branch of the Korea Meteorological Administration, were applied to analyze the future watershed runoff characteristics of the Geum River Basin under different hydraulic structure operation modes. This study concludes that efficient use of water resources can be achieved through the integrated operation of the dams and multi-functional weirs in times of water shortage. Comparing the results of modelling under a no‑carbon reduction scenario on one hand, and a scenario in which emissions were reduced on the other hand, differences were found in flows during floods, in the mean annual runoff ratio in accordance with the environment management class, and in the environmental flow rating. It appears that a new water resources management plan is required to respond to climate change as indicated by the shift of the flow duration curve to a lower environmental management class (EMC) under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid29957890, year = {2018}, author = {Li, XR and Jia, RL and Zhang, ZS and Zhang, P and Hui, R}, title = {Hydrological response of biological soil crusts to global warming: A ten-year simulative study.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {4960-4971}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14378}, pmid = {29957890}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {41621001//National Natural Scientific Foundation of China/International ; 41530746//National Natural Scientific Foundation of China/International ; }, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon/analysis ; *Computer Simulation ; *Desert Climate ; *Global Warming ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Rain ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; Water/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Biological soil crusts across the desert regions play a key role in regional ecological security and ecological health. They are vital biotic components of desert ecosystems that maintain soil stability, fix carbon and nitrogen, influence the establishment of vascular plants, and serve as habitats for a large number of arthropods and microorganisms, as well as influencing soil hydrological processes. Changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to influence the functioning of desert ecosystems by altering biotic components such as the species composition of biological soil crusts. However, it remains unclear how these important components will respond to the prolonged warming and reduced precipitation that is predicted to occur with climate change. To evaluate how the hydrological properties of these biological soil crusts respond to these alterations, we used open-top chambers over a 10-year period to simulate warming and reduced precipitation. Infiltration, dew entrapment, and evaporation were measured as surrogates of the hydrological functioning of biological soil crusts. It was found that the ongoing warming coupled with reduced precipitation will more strongly affect moss in crustal communities than lichens and cyanobacteria, which will lead to a direct alteration of the hydrological performance of biological soil crusts. Reductions in moss abundance, surface cover, and biomass resulted in a change in structure and function of crustal communities, decreased dew entrapment, and increased infiltration and evaporation of biological soil crusts in desert ecosystems, which further impacted on the desert soil water balance.}, }
@article {pmid29955993, year = {2018}, author = {Hultine, KR and Bush, SE and Ward, JK and Dawson, TE}, title = {Does sexual dimorphism predispose dioecious riparian trees to sex ratio imbalances under climate change?.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {187}, number = {4}, pages = {921-931}, pmid = {29955993}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {1340856//National Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Sex Characteristics ; Sex Ratio ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Environmental changes have resulted in significant declines in native riparian forests that are comprised largely of dioecious tree taxa, including boxelder and iconic cottonwood/willow gallery forests. Dioecious species may be especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change given that they often exhibit skewed sex ratios that are reinforced by physiological and morphological specialization of each sex to specific microhabitats. A comprehensive data synthesis suggests that male individuals of boxelder and cottonwood taxa have a higher representation on dry microhabitats than females and are less physiologically sensitive to increased aridity than co-occurring females. Consequently, extreme male-biased sex ratios are possible under future climate conditions that could reduce population fitness below a sustainable threshold. Riparian willows, on the other hand, generally do not express obvious sexual dimorphism in habitat preference or physiological sensitivity to aridity. Thus, it is unclear whether climate change will impact population structure of willows in ways that parallel other dioecious riparian tree taxa. Future riparian tree restoration programs should aim to maintain future sex ratio balance that maximizes population fitness under projected hydro-climatological conditions. Recent advances in genomics will likely provide the critical tools for early sex determination in pre-reproductive trees across riparian tree species such that sex ratio balance could be targeted during initial stages of restoration, along with adaptations for drought tolerance and other key traits that are essential for survival under future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid29955862, year = {2018}, author = {Jones, LM and Eves-van den Akker, S and van-Oosten Hawle, P and Atkinson, HJ and Urwin, PE}, title = {Duplication of hsp-110 Is Implicated in Differential Success of Globodera Species under Climate Change.}, journal = {Molecular biology and evolution}, volume = {35}, number = {10}, pages = {2401-2413}, pmid = {29955862}, issn = {1537-1719}, support = {P40 OD010440/OD/NIH HHS/United States ; BB/J015563/1//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/M014207/1//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Gene Duplication ; HSP110 Heat-Shock Proteins/*genetics/metabolism ; *Heat-Shock Response ; Hot Temperature ; Rhabditida/*genetics/metabolism ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Managing the emergence and spread of crop pests and pathogens is essential for global food security. Understanding how organisms have adapted to their native climate is key to predicting the impact of climate change. The potato cyst nematodes Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis are economically important plant pathogens that cause yield losses of up to 50% in potato. The two species have different thermal optima that may relate to differences in the altitude of their regions of origin in the Andes. Here, we demonstrate that juveniles of G. pallida are less able to recover from heat stress than those of G. rostochiensis. Genome-wide analysis revealed that while both Globodera species respond to heat stress by induction of various protective heat-inducible genes, G. pallida experiences heat stress at lower temperatures. We use C. elegans as a model to demonstrate the dependence of the heat stress response on expression of Heat Shock Factor-1 (HSF-1). Moreover, we show that hsp-110 is induced by heat stress in G. rostochiensis, but not in the less thermotolerant G. pallida. Sequence analysis revealed that this gene and its promoter was duplicated in G. rostochiensis and acquired thermoregulatory properties. We show that hsp-110 is required for recovery from acute thermal stress in both C. elegans and in G. rostochiensis. Our findings point towards an underlying molecular mechanism that allows the differential expansion of one species relative to another closely related species under current climate change scenarios. Similar mechanisms may be true of other invertebrate species with pest status.}, }
@article {pmid29955348, year = {2017}, author = {Mthembu, NN and Zwane, EM}, title = {The adaptive capacity of smallholder mixed-farming systems to the impact of climate change: The case of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {469}, pmid = {29955348}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change poses a serious threat to efforts by developing countries to ensure food security and poverty reduction. The National Development goals of South Africa envisage the agricultural sector as a key driver for job creation and economic growth. This article seeks to investigate the adaptive capacity of the Ncunjane farming community in Msinga, KwaZulu-Natal in response to drought spells of 2010 and 2014. This article draws on data collected using both qualitative and quantitative methods in 2011 and later in 2015 with the data analysed through the Statistical Package for Social Science to determine significant correlations between variables. Analysis of the vulnerability and adaptive capacity is performed using conceptual framework. This study found that both smallholder farmers who engaged in livestock and crop production have experienced high cattle mortalities and stagnant crop productivity, which in turn put pressure on already constrained disposable household income because of increased food costs and agricultural input costs, particularly supplementary animal feed. Cattle owners were more vulnerable to drought because of poor risk management and thus became highly dependent on government to provide drought relief. Application for government drought relief was found not to be effective in cases of large herds of cattle. Variability of rainfall and prolonged heat spells has a significant impact on the sustainability of smallholder mixed-farming systems, leaving agriculture as a highly questionable form of livelihood for rural farming communities such as Msinga. The article recommends strengthened institutional mechanisms so that stakeholders should play a more meaningful role within provincial and local agriculture in leveraging government support but places emphasis on the adoption of innovative strategies that can potentially yield significantly resilient smallholder mixed-farming systems in the wake of climate variability.}, }
@article {pmid29955344, year = {2017}, author = {Masipa, TS}, title = {The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {411}, pmid = {29955344}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (in)security. From this paper's analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa's ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.}, }
@article {pmid29955263, year = {2018}, author = {Mugambiwa, SS and Dzomonda, O}, title = {Climate change and vulnerability discourse by students at a South African university.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {476}, pmid = {29955263}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to pose grave consequences to communities around the world. It is predicted that many people, mostly in the developing world, will experience shortages of water and food as well as numerous health-related effects because of climate change. Therefore, rigorous global action is needed to enable developing countries to adapt to the effects of climate change. Universities play a pivotal role in addressing these issues and their impacts through research and technological innovations. Hence, assessing the extent to which university students understand climate change and its impacts displays the extent of hope in mitigating future changes in climatic conditions. This article assesses the knowledge and understanding of climate change and its impacts by students at an institution of higher learning in South Africa. This study utilised a quantitative approach and a descriptive design. The convenience method was used to obtain participants for the study. Self-administered questionnaires were utilised in a survey to collect data from the participants. A sample of 90 university students participated in the survey. Data analysis included descriptive statistics and T-tests. Reliability was measured using the Cronbach's alpha. The study discovered that university students have low knowledge and understanding of climate change. As a result, the study concluded that if students could be well-informed about climate change issues, they could positively contribute to the development of their communities by crafting smart climate change mitigation and adaptation skills.}, }
@article {pmid29955256, year = {2018}, author = {Dujardin, S and Hermesse, J and Dendoncker, N}, title = {Making space for experiential knowledge in climate change adaptation? Insights from municipal planning officers in Bohol, Philippines.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {433}, pmid = {29955256}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is a global phenomenon that has multiple local effects on people and places. Yet, climate change knowledge often travels uncomfortably across scales and needs constant re-interpretation as it is applied in different spatial contexts. This requires the examination of how scientific and local knowledge about climate change travel across social systems and shape local meanings and adaptive actions on climate change. Using an interpretive social science analysis of environmental change, this study investigates development planning as a key boundary object for handling both kinds of knowledge and explores experiential knowledge of climate change held by planning officers from the coastal landscape of the island province of Bohol, Philippines. Drawing upon face-to-face interviews, mental maps, and planning documents review, main results first characterise three experiential ways of knowing about climate change across spaces of lived experiences and spaces of maps and plans. Then, we show how planners engage with climate change adaptation by combining national, techno-scientific and local, on-the-ground ways of knowing, offering a venue in which experiential knowledge on climate change is used for building planning significance and making more grounded accounts of adaptation moving forward in planning policy and practice.}, }
@article {pmid29955255, year = {2018}, author = {Mbereko, A and Chimbari, MJ and Mukaratirwa, S}, title = {The political ecology of stakeholder-driven climate change adaptation: Case study from Ntalale ward, Gwanda district, in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {419}, pmid = {29955255}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Vulnerable rural communities face climate change-related shifts in rainfall patterns, particularly droughts and floods. The study investigated how Ntalale ward households in Gwanda district of Zimbabwe interpret climate change and adapt to its stressors in the context of the Zimbabwean political economy. Focus group discussions and interviews collected qualitative data. The community has experienced the following climate change-related risks: droughts, floods, heatwave and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. Droughts were reported to be occurring more frequent in the past 25 years as compared to the period before 1991. Ntalale area experienced floods in the 2002-2003 rainy season only. Respondents generally perceived that the rainy season had changed in the past 5 years, with the season now beginning in December and ending in March. The households have resorted to shifting cultivation practices, replanting, use of wetlands in preference to upland fields, changing of seed varieties or crops, selling of livestock and informal trading as coping strategies. Although non-governmental organisations have assisted the community to set up irrigation schemes, a few selected community members have benefited from the initiative. The Ntalale community has experienced four climate change-related risks and institutions have assisted the community. It is recommended that cooperation between households and institutions is key in developing stakeholder-driven adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid29955251, year = {2018}, author = {Mugambiwa, SS}, title = {Adaptation measures to sustain indigenous practices and the use of indigenous knowledge systems to adapt to climate change in Mutoko rural district of Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {388}, pmid = {29955251}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This article examines adaptation measures used to sustain indigenous practices and the use of indigenous knowledge systems (IKS) to adapt to climate change in Mutoko rural district of Zimbabwe. Community-based adaptation is able to reduce the vulnerability as well as improve the resilience of the local people to climatic variability and change. Subsistence farmers have always adopted adaptive strategies to some of these changes over the years. As such, the adoption of indigenous practices will significantly help rural community members to adapt to climate change. This study employed a qualitative method and an exploratory design, and the results are derived from 30 purposively selected in-depth interviews. The study discovered that there are numerous measures used to adapt to climate change and subsequently to sustain indigenous practices. The study also found that the community no longer grows maize in large quantities, having shifted to millet and sorghum in order to adapt to climate change. The community also provided various strategies to adapt to climate change. These strategies include mulching, creating large storage houses for produce and creating temporary walls on riverbanks in order to store water when the rivers dry up. This study concludes that climate change adaptation measures employed by the community have significantly helped them to sustain their indigenous practices in many ways. Also, the use of IKS, through activities such as crop type change from maize to traditional millet and sorghum (which facilitates traditional lifestyle and activities), re-establishes the community's indigenous practices since they are made to observe the practices of yesteryear.}, }
@article {pmid29955250, year = {2018}, author = {Ketlhoilwe, MJ and Kanene, KM}, title = {Access to energy sources in the face of climate change: Challenges faced by women in rural communities.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {375}, pmid = {29955250}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Access to energy is a challenge to rural communities, especially among women who are the prime household energy users. This article is based on research carried out in the Tswapong villages in Botswana where energy sources particularly wood, are slowly getting depleted while electricity connection costs remain unaffordable for the poor. The article provides constructivist analysis of experiences in real-life situations among women. Data were generated through observations, documents analysis, interviews and focus group discussions. It has emerged from the research that majority of the respondents use firewood as energy source. Firewood and gas are mainly used for cooking while electricity is mainly used for lighting. The demand for firewood has led to firewood commercialisation, the depletion of preferred firewood tree species and increase in the impact of climate change. The article recommends economic diversification and subsidies to empower the majority of the rural poor to connect to the national electric grid and reduce on firewood dependence. These could be complemented by harnessing of solar energy and low-cost, energy-saving technologies. Subsidies to enable women access to energy services would contribute immensely to the decade of Sustainable Energy for All and to the attainment of the post 2015 sustainable development goal on energy.}, }
@article {pmid29954662, year = {2018}, author = {Needleman, RK and Neylan, IP and Erickson, TB}, title = {Environmental and Ecological Effects of Climate Change on Venomous Marine and Amphibious Species in the Wilderness.}, journal = {Wilderness &amp; environmental medicine}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {343-356}, doi = {10.1016/j.wem.2018.04.003}, pmid = {29954662}, issn = {1545-1534}, mesh = {Amphibian Venoms ; *Amphibians/physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cnidaria/physiology ; Ecology ; Elapid Venoms ; Environment ; *Fishes, Poisonous/physiology ; Humans ; *Hydrophiidae/physiology ; Venoms ; Wilderness ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Recent analyses of data show a warming trend in global average air and sea surface ocean temperatures. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, the sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. This article will focus on climate change and projected effects on venomous marine and amphibious creatures with the potential impact on human health.<br><br>METHODS: Retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous aquatic and amphibious creatures. Species included venomous jellyfish, poisonous fish, crown-of-thorns starfish, sea snakes, and toxic frogs.<br><br>RESULTS: In several projected scenarios, rising temperatures, weather extremes, and shifts in seasons will increase poisonous population numbers, particularly with certain marine creatures like jellyfish and crown-of-thorns starfish. Habitat expansions by lionfish and sea snakes are projected to occur. These phenomena, along with increases in human populations and coastal development will likely increase human-animal encounters. Other species, particularly amphibious toxic frogs, are declining rapidly due to their sensitivity to any temperature change or subtle alterations in the stability of their environment. If temperatures continue to rise to record levels over the next decades, it is predicted that the populations of these once plentiful and critically important animals to the aquatic ecosystem will decline and their geographic distributions will shrink.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Review of the literature investigating the effect and forecasts of climate change on venomous marine and amphibious creatures has demonstrated that temperature extremes and changes to climatic norms will likely have a dramatic effect on these toxicological organisms. The effects of climate change on these species through temperature alteration and rising coastal waters will influence each species differently and in turn potentially affect commercial industries, travel, tourism, and human health.}, }
@article {pmid29953493, year = {2018}, author = {Lee, H and Kim, JE and Lee, S and Lee, CH}, title = {Potential effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics in Korea.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {e0199205}, pmid = {29953493}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Models, Biological ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Dengue fever is a major international public health concern, with more than 55% of the world population at risk of infection. Recent climate changes related to global warming have increased the potential risk of domestic outbreaks of dengue in Korea. In this study, we develop a two-strain dengue model associated with climate-dependent parameters based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We assess the potential risks of dengue outbreaks by means of the vector capacity and intensity under various RCP scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of the temperature-dependent parameters is performed to explore the effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics. Our results demonstrate that a higher temperature significantly enhances the potential threat of domestic dengue outbreaks in Korea. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of countermeasures on the cumulative incidence of humans and vectors. The current main control measures (comprising only travel restrictions) for infected humans in Korea are not as effective as combined control measures (travel restrictions and vector control), dramatically reducing the possibilities of dengue outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid29943748, year = {2018}, author = {Levi, M and Kjellstrom, T and Baldasseroni, A}, title = {Impact of climate change on occupational health and productivity: a systematic literature review focusing on workplace heat.}, journal = {La Medicina del lavoro}, volume = {109}, number = {3}, pages = {163-179}, pmid = {29943748}, issn = {0025-7818}, mesh = {Agriculture/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Construction Industry/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Efficiency ; European Union/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Warming ; Health Policy ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; Occupational Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; Occupational Exposure/*adverse effects ; *Occupational Health ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; Workplace/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: With climate change, mean annual air temperatures are getting hotter and extreme weather events will become more and more common in most parts of the world.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: As part of the EU funded project HEAT-SHIELD we conducted a systematic review to summarize the epidemiological evidence of the effects of global warming-related heat exposure on workers' health and productivity.<br><br>METHODS: Three separate searches, focused, respectively, on: i) heat-related illness (HRI), cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases; ii) traumatic injuries; and iii) vector-borne diseases or vectors distribution, were conducted in PubMed. EMBASE was also consulted to retrieve relevant studies focused on the health effects of climate change. A fourth search strategy to assess the effects on work productivity was conducted both in PubMed and in the SCOPUS database.<br><br>RESULTS: A significant proportion of studies reported findings regarding the Mesoamerican nephropathy issue. This is a disease occurring especially among young and middle-aged male sugarcane workers, without conventional risk factors for chronic kidney disease. For injuries, there is a reversed U-shaped exposure-response relationship between Tmax and overall daily injury claims. Outdoor workers are at increased risk of vector-borne infectious diseases, as a positive correlation between higher air temperatures and current or future expansion of the habitat of vectors is being observed. As for productivity, agriculture and construction are the most studied sectors; a day with temperatures exceeding 32&#xb0;C can reduce daily labour supply in exposed sectors by up to 14%.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The present findings should inform development of further research and related health policies in the EU and beyond with regard to protecting working people from the effects of workplace heat during climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29938796, year = {2018}, author = {Lamprecht, A and Semenchuk, PR and Steinbauer, K and Winkler, M and Pauli, H}, title = {Climate change leads to accelerated transformation of high-elevation vegetation in the central Alps.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {220}, number = {2}, pages = {447-459}, pmid = {29938796}, issn = {1469-8137}, support = {ACRP 6: GZ B368633//Austrian Climate Research Program/International ; KR13AC6K11076//Austrian Climate Research Program/International ; }, mesh = {*Altitude ; Austria ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; *Plants ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {High mountain ecosystems and their biota are governed by low-temperature conditions and thus can be used as indicators for climate warming impacts on natural ecosystems, provided that long-term data exist. We used data from the largest alpine to nival permanent plot site in the Alps, established in the frame of the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) on Schrankogel in the Tyrolean Alps, Austria, in 1994, and resurveyed in 2004 and 2014. Vascular plant species richness per plot increased over the entire period, albeit to a lesser extent in the second decade, because disappearance events increased markedly in the latter period. Although presence/absence data could only marginally explain range shift dynamics, changes in species cover and plant community composition indicate an accelerating transformation towards a more warmth-demanding and more drought-adapted vegetation, which is strongest at the lowest, least rugged subsite. Divergent responses of vertical distribution groups of species suggest that direct warming effects, rather than competitive displacement, are the primary causes of the observed patterns. The continued decrease in cryophilic species could imply that trailing edge dynamics proceed more rapidly than successful colonisation, which would favour a period of accelerated species declines.}, }
@article {pmid29938209, year = {2018}, author = {Balkovič, J and Skalský, R and Folberth, C and Khabarov, N and Schmid, E and Madaras, M and Obersteiner, M and van der Velde, M}, title = {Impacts and Uncertainties of +2°C of Climate Change and Soil Degradation on European Crop Calorie Supply.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {373-395}, pmid = {29938209}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {Even if global warming is kept below +2°C, European agriculture will be significantly impacted. Soil degradation may amplify these impacts substantially and thus hamper crop production further. We quantify biophysical consequences and bracket uncertainty of +2°C warming on calories supply from 10 major crops and vulnerability to soil degradation in Europe using crop modeling. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model together with regional climate projections from the European branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) was used for this purpose. A robustly positive calorie yield change was estimated for the EU Member States except for some regions in Southern and South-Eastern Europe. The mean impacts range from +30 Gcal ha[-1] in the north, through +25 and +20 Gcal ha[-1] in Western and Eastern Europe, respectively, to +10 Gcal ha[-1] in the south if soil degradation and heat impacts are not accounted for. Elevated CO2 and increased temperature are the dominant drivers of the simulated yield changes in high-input agricultural systems. The growth stimulus due to elevated CO2 may offset potentially negative yield impacts of temperature increase by +2°C in most of Europe. Soil degradation causes a calorie vulnerability ranging from 0 to 50 Gcal ha[-1] due to insufficient compensation for nutrient depletion and this might undermine climate benefits in many regions, if not prevented by adaptation measures, especially in Eastern and North-Eastern Europe. Uncertainties due to future potentials for crop intensification are about 2-50 times higher than climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid29938085, year = {2018}, author = {Bellard, C and Jeschke, JM and Leroy, B and Mace, GM}, title = {Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {5688-5700}, pmid = {29938085}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29938046, year = {2018}, author = {Terando, A and Youngsteadt, E and Meineke, E and Prado, S}, title = {Accurate near surface air temperature measurements are necessary to gauge large-scale ecological responses to global climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {5233-5234}, pmid = {29938046}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Linked Article: https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3965.}, }
@article {pmid29937583, year = {2018}, author = {Prati, G and Pietrantoni, L and Albanesi, C}, title = {Human values and beliefs and concern about climate change: a Bayesian longitudinal analysis.}, journal = {Quality &amp; quantity}, volume = {52}, number = {4}, pages = {1613-1625}, pmid = {29937583}, issn = {0033-5177}, abstract = {The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of human values on beliefs and concern about climate change using a longitudinal design and Bayesian analysis. A sample of 298 undergraduate/master students filled out the same questionnaire on two occasions at an interval of 2 months. The questionnaire included measures of beliefs and concern about climate change (i.e., perceived consequences, risk perception, and skepticism) and human values (i.e., the Portrait Values Questionnaire). After controlling for gender and the respective baseline score, universalism at Time 1 was associated with higher levels of perceived consequences of climate change and lower levels of climate change skepticism. Self-direction at Time 1 predicted Time 2 climate change risk perception and perceived consequences of climate change. Hedonism at Time 1 was associated with Time 2 climate change risk perception. The other human values at Time 1 were not associated with any of the measures of beliefs and concern about climate change at Time 2. The results of this study suggest that a focus on universalism and self-direction values seems to be a more successful approach to stimulate public engagement with climate change than a focus on other human values.}, }
@article {pmid29934542, year = {2018}, author = {Ramos, JE and Pecl, GT and Moltschaniwskyj, NA and Semmens, JM and Souza, CA and Strugnell, JM}, title = {Population genetic signatures of a climate change driven marine range extension.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {9558}, pmid = {29934542}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Gene Flow ; *Genetics, Population ; Octopodiformes/*genetics ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Shifts in species distribution, or 'range shifts', are one of the most commonly documented responses to ocean warming, with important consequences for the function and structure of ecosystems, and for socio-economic activities. Understanding the genetic signatures of range shifts can help build our knowledge of the capacity of species to establish and persist in colonised areas. Here, seven microsatellite loci were used to examine the population connectivity, genetic structure and diversity of Octopus tetricus, which has extended its distribution several hundred kilometres polewards associated with the southwards extension of the warm East Australian Current along south-eastern Australia. The historical distribution and the range extension zones had significant genetic differences but levels of genetic diversity were comparable. The population in the range extension zone was sub-structured, contained relatively high levels of self-recruitment and was sourced by migrants from along the entire geographic distribution. Genetic bottlenecks and changes in population size were detected throughout the range extension axis. Persistent gene flow from throughout the historical zone and moderate genetic diversity may buffer the genetic bottlenecks and favour the range extension of O. tetricus. These characteristics may aid adaptation, establishment, and long-term persistence of the population in the range extension zone.}, }
@article {pmid29931768, year = {2018}, author = {Jenouvrier, S and Desprez, M and Fay, R and Barbraud, C and Weimerskirch, H and Delord, K and Caswell, H}, title = {Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {87}, number = {4}, pages = {906-920}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12827}, pmid = {29931768}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Life History Traits ; *Longevity ; Longitudinal Studies ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: "Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?" We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry-over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at-sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre-breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry-over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle.}, }
@article {pmid29930266, year = {2018}, author = {Belote, RT and Carroll, C and Martinuzzi, S and Michalak, J and Williams, JW and Williamson, MA and Aplet, GH}, title = {Assessing agreement among alternative climate change projections to inform conservation recommendations in the contiguous United States.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {9441}, pmid = {29930266}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Addressing uncertainties in climate vulnerability remains a challenge for conservation planning. We evaluate how confidence in conservation recommendations may change with agreement among alternative climate projections and metrics of climate exposure. We assessed agreement among three multivariate estimates of climate exposure (forward velocity, backward velocity, and climate dissimilarity) using 18 alternative climate projections for the contiguous United States. For each metric, we classified maps into quartiles for each alternative climate projections, and calculated the frequency of quartiles assigned for each gridded location (high quartile frequency = more agreement among climate projections). We evaluated recommendations using a recent climate adaptation heuristic framework that recommends emphasizing various conservation strategies to land based on current conservation value and expected climate exposure. We found that areas where conservation strategies would be confidently assigned based on high agreement among climate projections varied substantially across regions. In general, there was more agreement in forward and backward velocity estimates among alternative projections than agreement in estimates of local dissimilarity. Consensus of climate predictions resulted in the same conservation recommendation assignments in a few areas, but patterns varied by climate exposure metric. This work demonstrates an approach for explicitly evaluating alternative predictions in geographic patterns of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29929273, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, H and Fan, J and Cao, W and Harris, W and Li, Y and Chi, W and Wang, S}, title = {Response of wind erosion dynamics to climate change and human activity in Inner Mongolia, China during 1990 to 2015.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {639}, number = {}, pages = {1038-1050}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.082}, pmid = {29929273}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Soil ; *Wind ; }, abstract = {Soil erosion caused by wind is a serious environmental problem that results in land degradation and threatens sustainable development. Accurately evaluating wind erosion dynamics is important for reducing the hazard of wind erosion. Separating the climatic and anthropogenic causes of wind erosion can improve the understanding of its driving mechanisms. Based on meteorological, remote sensing and field observation data, we applied the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) to simulate wind erosion in Inner Mongolia, China from 1990 to 2015. We used the variable control method by input of the average climate conditions to calculate human-induced wind erosion. The difference between natural wind erosion and human-induced wind erosion was determined to assess the effect of climate change on wind erosion. The results showed that the wind erosion modulus had a remarkable decline with a slope of 52.23 t/km[2]/a from 1990 to 2015. During 26 years, the average wind erosion for Inner Mongolia amounted to 63.32 billion tons. Wind erosion showed an overall significant decline of 49.23% and the partial severer erosion hazard significantly increased by 7.11%. Of the significant regional decline, 40.72% was caused by climate changes, and 8.51% was attributed to ecological restoration programs. For the significant regional increases of wind erosion, 4.29% was attributed to climate changes and 2.82% to human activities, mainly overgrazing and land use/cover changes. During the study, the driving forces in Inner Mongolia of wind erosion dynamics differed spatially. Timely monitoring based on multi-source data and highlighting the importance of positive human activities by increasing vegetation coverage for deserts, reducing grazing pressure on grasslands, establishing forests as windbreaks and optimizing crop planting rotations of farmlands can all act to reduce and control wind erosion.}, }
@article {pmid29929254, year = {2018}, author = {Rogora, M and Frate, L and Carranza, ML and Freppaz, M and Stanisci, A and Bertani, I and Bottarin, R and Brambilla, A and Canullo, R and Carbognani, M and Cerrato, C and Chelli, S and Cremonese, E and Cutini, M and Di Musciano, M and Erschbamer, B and Godone, D and Iocchi, M and Isabellon, M and Magnani, A and Mazzola, L and Morra di Cella, U and Pauli, H and Petey, M and Petriccione, B and Porro, F and Psenner, R and Rossetti, G and Scotti, A and Sommaruga, R and Tappeiner, U and Theurillat, JP and Tomaselli, M and Viglietti, D and Viterbi, R and Vittoz, P and Winkler, M and Matteucci, G}, title = {Assessment of climate change effects on mountain ecosystems through a cross-site analysis in the Alps and Apennines.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {624}, number = {}, pages = {1429-1442}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.155}, pmid = {29929254}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Mountain ecosystems are sensitive and reliable indicators of climate change. Long-term studies may be extremely useful in assessing the responses of high-elevation ecosystems to climate change and other anthropogenic drivers from a broad ecological perspective. Mountain research sites within the LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research) network are representative of various types of ecosystems and span a wide bioclimatic and elevational range. Here, we present a synthesis and a review of the main results from ecological studies in mountain ecosystems at 20 LTER sites in Italy, Switzerland and Austria covering in most cases more than two decades of observations. We analyzed a set of key climate parameters, such as temperature and snow cover duration, in relation to vascular plant species composition, plant traits, abundance patterns, pedoclimate, nutrient dynamics in soils and water, phenology and composition of freshwater biota. The overall results highlight the rapid response of mountain ecosystems to climate change, with site-specific characteristics and rates. As temperatures increased, vegetation cover in alpine and subalpine summits increased as well. Years with limited snow cover duration caused an increase in soil temperature and microbial biomass during the growing season. Effects on freshwater ecosystems were also observed, in terms of increases in solutes, decreases in nitrates and changes in plankton phenology and benthos communities. This work highlights the importance of comparing and integrating long-term ecological data collected in different ecosystems for a more comprehensive overview of the ecological effects of climate change. Nevertheless, there is a need for (i) adopting co-located monitoring site networks to improve our ability to obtain sound results from cross-site analysis, (ii) carrying out further studies, in particular short-term analyses with fine spatial and temporal resolutions to improve our understanding of responses to extreme events, and (iii) increasing comparability and standardizing protocols across networks to distinguish local patterns from global patterns.}, }
@article {pmid29929151, year = {2018}, author = {Liobikienė, G and Butkus, M}, title = {The challenges and opportunities of climate change policy under different stages of economic development.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {642}, number = {}, pages = {999-1007}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.140}, pmid = {29929151}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change policy confronts with many challenges and opportunities. Thus the aim of this study was to analyse the impact of gross domestic product (hereinafter GDP), trade, foreign direct investment (hereinafter FDI), energy efficiency (hereinafter EF) and renewable energy (hereinafter RE) consumption on greenhouse gas (hereinafter GHG) emissions in 1990-2013 and reveal the main challenges and opportunities of climate policy for which policy makers should take the most attention under different stages of economic development. The results showed that the economic growth significantly contributed to the increase of GHG emissions and remains the main challenge in all groups of countries. Analysing the trade impact on pollution, the results revealed that the growth of export (hereinafter EX) significantly reduced GHG emissions only in high income countries. However, the export remains a challenge in low income countries. FDI insignificantly determined the changes in GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Meanwhile, energy efficiency and share of renewable energy consumption are the main opportunities of climate change policy because they reduce the GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Thus, technological processes, the increase of energy efficiency and the shift from carbon to renewable energy sources are the main tools implementing the climate change policy in all countries despite the different stage of economic development.}, }
@article {pmid29929072, year = {2018}, author = {Luís, S and Lima, ML and Roseta-Palma, C and Rodrigues, N and P Sousa, L and Freitas, F and L Alves, F and Lillebø, AI and Parrod, C and Jolivet, V and Paramana, T and Alexandrakis, G and Poulos, S}, title = {Psychosocial drivers for change: Understanding and promoting stakeholder engagement in local adaptation to climate change in three European Mediterranean case studies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {223}, number = {}, pages = {165-174}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.06.020}, pmid = {29929072}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; France ; Greece ; Humans ; *Intention ; Policy Making ; Portugal ; }, abstract = {Stakeholder engagement in the processes of planning local adaptation to climate change faces many challenges. The goal of this work was to explore whether or not the intention of engaging could be understood (Study 1) and promoted (Study 2), by using an extension of the theory of planned behaviour. In Study 1, stakeholders from three European Mediterranean case studies were surveyed: Baixo Vouga Lagunar (Portugal), SCOT Provence Méditerranée (France), and the island of Crete (Greece) (N = 115). Stakeholders' intention of engaging was significantly predicted by subjective norm (which was predicted by injunctive normative beliefs towards policy-makers and stakeholders) and by perceived behavioural control (which was predicted by knowledge of policy and instruments). Study 2 was conducted in the Baixo Vouga Lagunar case study and consisted of a two-workshop intervention where issues on local and regional adaptation, policies, and engagement were presented and discussed. A within-participants comparison of initial survey results with results following the workshops (NT1 = 12, NT2 = 15, NT3 = 12) indicated that these were successful in increasing stakeholders' intention of engaging. This increase was paired with a) an increase in injunctive normative beliefs towards policy-makers and consequently in subjective norm, and to b) a decrease in perceived complexity of planning local adaptation and an increase in knowledge regarding adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29927899, year = {2019}, author = {Grossman, E and Hathaway, M and Bush, KF and Cahillane, M and English, DQ and Holmes, T and Moran, CE and Uejio, CK and York, EA and Dorevitch, S}, title = {Minigrants to Local Health Departments: An Opportunity to Promote Climate Change Preparedness.}, journal = {Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {113-120}, doi = {10.1097/PHH.0000000000000826}, pmid = {29927899}, issn = {1550-5022}, mesh = {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S./organization &amp; administration/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Civil Defense/instrumentation/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Financing, Organized/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Government Programs ; Humans ; *Local Government ; Public Health/*methods ; United States ; }, abstract = {CONTEXT: Human health is threatened by climate change. While the public health workforce is concerned about climate change, local health department (LHD) administrators have reported insufficient knowledge and resources to address climate change. Minigrants from state to LHDs have been used to promote a variety of local public health initiatives.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To describe the minigrant approach used by state health departments implementing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework, to highlight successes of this approach in promoting climate change preparedness at LHDs, and to describe challenges encountered.<br><br>DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey and discussion.<br><br>INTERVENTION: State-level recipients of CDC funding issued minigrants to local public health entities to promote climate change preparedness, adaptation, and resilience.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The amount of funding, number of LHDs funded per state, goals, selection process, evaluation process, outcomes, successes, and challenges of the minigrant programs.<br><br>RESULTS: Six state-level recipients of CDC funding for BRACE framework implementation awarded minigrants ranging from $7700 to $28 500 per year to 44 unique local jurisdictions. Common goals of the minigrants included capacity building, forging partnerships with entities outside of health departments, incorporating climate change information into existing programs, and developing adaptation plans. Recipients of minigrants reported increases in knowledge, engagement with diverse stakeholders, and the incorporation of climate change content into existing programs. Challenges included addressing climate change in regions where the topic is politically sensitive, as well as the uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of local projects beyond the term of minigrant support.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Minigrants can increase local public health capacity to address climate change. Jurisdictions that wish to utilize minigrant mechanisms to promote climate change adaptation and preparedness at the local level may benefit from the experience of the 6 states and 44 local health programs described.}, }
@article {pmid29920926, year = {2019}, author = {Matzrafi, M}, title = {Climate change exacerbates pest damage through reduced pesticide efficacy.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {75}, number = {1}, pages = {9-13}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5121}, pmid = {29920926}, issn = {1526-4998}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Insecta/metabolism ; *Pest Control ; Pesticides/metabolism/*pharmacology ; Plants/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Pesticide efficacy is strongly associated with environmental conditions. Conditional resistance defined as a reduction in pesticide sensitivity under changed environmental conditions has been widely detected under climatic changes such as elevated temperatures and CO2 enrichment. Given the effects of environmental conditions on pesticide sensitivity, many of the putative resistance reports made by farmers may be due to pesticide application followed by non-optimal environmental conditions rather than the evolution of resistance. This type of conditional resistance may be the result of phenotypic plasticity or epigenetic changes in response to environmental changes. Elevated temperatures and CO2 enrichment can directly lead to reduced pesticide efficacy by altering pesticide metabolism and translocation, or indirectly increasing pesticide detoxification in host-plants thus reducing pesticide availability for the target pest. Stress-related signal transduction pathways, as well as physiological changes, can both be associated with accelerated pesticide detoxification under climatic changes. The possibility for parallel mechanisms controlling these responses in different pest species should be considered. It is proposed that the same mechanisms leading to non-target site resistance in pests may also play a role in conditional resistance, suggesting we can predict the pesticides to which pests are likely to be less responsive under changing climatic conditions. Using adjuvants to improve pesticide translocation or reduce pesticide metabolism, alongside with new technologies such as using nanoparticles may result in higher pesticide functionality under the projected climate change. Exploring the physiological, transcriptional and biochemical basis underlying conditional resistance is crucial in maintaining future pest management under changing environmental conditions. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid29916353, year = {2018}, author = {Tavares, A}, title = {[The Impact of Climate Change on Health].}, journal = {Acta medica portuguesa}, volume = {31}, number = {5}, pages = {241-242}, doi = {10.20344/amp.10473}, pmid = {29916353}, issn = {1646-0758}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid29913597, year = {2018}, author = {Whitehead, PG and Jin, L and Macadam, I and Janes, T and Sarkar, S and Rodda, HJE and Sinha, R and Nicholls, RJ}, title = {Modelling impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Meghna, Hooghly and Mahanadi river systems in India and Bangladesh.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {636}, number = {}, pages = {1362-1372}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.362}, pmid = {29913597}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River System, the associated Hooghly River and the Mahanadi River System represent the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 780 million. The rivers are of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as they provide fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and support the Delta System in the Bay of Bengal. Future changes in both climate and socio-economics have been investigated to assess whether these will alter river flows and water quality. Climate datasets downscaled from three different Global Climate Models have been used to drive a daily process based flow and water quality model. The results suggest that due to climate change the flows will increase in the monsoon period and also be enhanced in the dry season. However, once socio-economic changes are also considered, increased population, irrigation, water use and industrial development reduce water availability in drought conditions, threatening water supplies and posing a threat to river and coastal ecosystems. This study, as part of the DECCMA (Deltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation) project, also addresses water quality issues, particularly nutrients (N and P) and their transport along the rivers and discharge into the Delta System. Climate will alter flows, increasing flood flows and changing pollution dilution factors in the rivers, as well as other key processes controlling water quality. Socio-economic change will affect water quality, as water diversion strategies, increased population and industrial development alter the water balance and enhance fluxes of nutrients from agriculture, urban centers and atmospheric deposition.}, }
@article {pmid29912888, year = {2018}, author = {Morrison, M and Parton, K and Hine, DW}, title = {Increasing belief but issue fatigue: Changes in Australian Household Climate Change Segments between 2011 and 2016.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {e0197988}, pmid = {29912888}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Australia ; Behavior ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; *Culture ; Fatigue/*psychology ; Female ; *Housing ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Stakeholder Participation/psychology ; }, abstract = {Using national Australian samples collected in 2011 (n = 1927) and 2016 (n = 2503), we identified six Australian household segments which we labelled Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful and Dismissive. Between the two periods, we found the proportion of households in the Alarmed and Concerned segments was stable; however there was a decrease (28% to 20%) in the proportion of households in the Doubtful and Dismissive segments and an increase (27% to 33%) in the Cautious and Disengaged segments. We found that a greater proportion of households have personally experienced climate change, and were more likely to believe in human causation and believe that there is a scientific consensus about the issue. However, there was evidence of issue fatigue. Households were less likely to report that they had thought about climate change or talked about it with their friends in 2016 relative to 2011. They were also less likely to pursue certain climate friendly behaviours or reward or punish companies for their climate behaviours. These findings suggest a need to motivate households to maintain efforts to mitigate climate change, particularly the Cautious and Disengaged households that are more amenable to changing their views about this issue.}, }
@article {pmid29909329, year = {2018}, author = {Madrigal-González, J and Andivia, E and Zavala, MA and Stoffel, M and Calatayud, J and Sánchez-Salguero, R and Ballesteros-Cánovas, J}, title = {Disentangling the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {642}, number = {}, pages = {619-628}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.064}, pmid = {29909329}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Mediterranean Region ; Temperature ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate change can impair ecosystem functions and services in extensive dry forests worldwide. However, attribution of climate change impacts on tree growth and forest productivity is challenging due to multiple inter-annual patterns of climatic variability associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Moreover, growth responses to rising atmospheric CO2, namely carbon fertilization, as well as size ontogenetic changes can obscure the climate change signature as well. Here we apply Structural Equation Models (SEM) to investigate the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment (i.e., extreme in terms of the combination of sandy-unconsolidated soils and climatic aridity). Specifically, we analyzed potential direct and indirect pathways by which different sources of climatic variability (i.e. warming and precipitation trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, [NAO]; the Mediterranean Oscillation, [MOI]; the Atlantic Mediterranean Oscillation, [AMO]) affect aridity through their control on local climate (in terms of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation), and subsequently tree productivity, in terms of basal area increments (BAI). Our results support the predominant role of Diameter at Breast Height (DHB) as the main growth driver. In terms of climate, NAO and AMO are the most important drivers of tree growth through their control of aridity (via effects of precipitation and temperature, respectively). Furthermore and contrary to current expectations, our findings also support a net positive role of climate warming on growth over the last 50 years and suggest that impacts of climate warming should be evaluated considering multi-annual and multi-decadal periods of local climate defined by atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic.}, }
@article {pmid29909326, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, X and Sun, W and Li, P and Mu, X and Gao, P and Zhao, G}, title = {Reduced sediment transport in the Chinese Loess Plateau due to climate change and human activities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {642}, number = {}, pages = {591-600}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.061}, pmid = {29909326}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Geologic Sediments/*analysis ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Soil ; }, abstract = {The sediment load on the Chinese Loess Plateau has sharply decreased in recent years. However, the contribution of terrace construction and vegetation restoration projects to sediment discharge reduction remains uncertain. In this paper, eight catchments located in the Loess Plateau were chosen to explore the effects of different driving factors on sediment discharge changes during the period from the 1960s to 2012. Attribution approaches were applied to evaluate the effects of climate, terrace, and vegetation coverage changes on sediment discharge. The results showed that the annual sediment discharge decreased significantly in all catchments ranging from -0.007 to -0.039 Gt·yr[-1]. Sediment discharge in most tributaries has shown abrupt changes since 1996, and the total sediment discharge was reduced by 60.1% during 1997-2012. We determined that increasing vegetation coverage was the primary factor driving the reductions in sediment loads since 1996 and accounted for 47.7% of the total reduction. Climate variability and terrace construction accounted for 9.1% and 18.6% of sediment discharge reductions, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid29909324, year = {2018}, author = {El Jaouhari, N and Abouabdillah, A and Bouabid, R and Bourioug, M and Aleya, L and Chaoui, M}, title = {Assessment of sustainable deficit irrigation in a Moroccan apple orchard as a climate change adaptation strategy.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {642}, number = {}, pages = {574-581}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.108}, pmid = {29909324}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study was conducted over three consecutive years, 2015, 2016 and 2017, in the Imouzzer Kander region located in northwestern Morocco. The main objective is to evaluate apple tree responses to two sustainable deficit irrigation strategies with 75% (T2) and 50% (T3) of calculated crop evapotranspiration (ETc), compared to a control irrigated with 100% ETc (T1). During the three experiment years, estimated reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was 630, 684 and 728 mm, respectively, in 2015, 2016 and 2017. Under the two restricted regimes, shoot length and fruit size evolution were not significantly affected. During the fruit set of 2017, no significant effects of sustainable deficit irrigation on the relative water content were observed, whereas they increased significantly during the fruit-swelling stage for the T3 treatment. Likewise, net CO2 assimilation (An) was not affected by the irrigation dose, whereas it increased significantly and inversely proportional to the amount of applied water during fruit swelling. Thus, under our experimental conditions, the trees subjected to extreme deficit irrigation (T3) were not stressed at either stage. Moreover, deficit irrigation at 75% ETc increased apple yield significantly. In contrast, deficit irrigation at 50% ETc throughout the cycle was not enough to maintain an acceptable fruit size for the three studied campaigns. However, the best qualitative performance, notably for fruit firmness and sugar content, was attributed to this irrigation regime (T3).}, }
@article {pmid29907247, year = {2018}, author = {Gronlund, CJ and Sullivan, KP and Kefelegn, Y and Cameron, L and O'Neill, MS}, title = {Climate change and temperature extremes: A review of heat- and cold-related morbidity and mortality concerns of municipalities.}, journal = {Maturitas}, volume = {114}, number = {}, pages = {54-59}, pmid = {29907247}, issn = {1873-4111}, support = {K99 ES026198/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES017885/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R00 ES026198/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Cities ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Heating ; Hot Temperature ; *Housing ; Humans ; Michigan ; Seasons ; Survival Rate ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Cold and hot weather are associated with mortality and morbidity. Although the burden of temperature-associated mortality may shift towards high temperatures in the future, cold temperatures may represent a greater current-day problem in temperate cities. Hot and cold temperature vulnerabilities may coincide across several personal and neighborhood characteristics, suggesting opportunities for increasing present and future resilience to extreme temperatures. We present a narrative literature review encompassing the epidemiology of cold- and heat-related mortality and morbidity, related physiologic and environmental mechanisms, and municipal responses to hot and cold weather, illustrated by Detroit, Michigan, USA, a financially burdened city in an economically diverse metropolitan area. The Detroit area experiences sharp increases in mortality and hospitalizations with extreme heat, while cold temperatures are associated with more gradual increases in mortality, with no clear threshold. Interventions such as heating and cooling centers may reduce but not eliminate temperature-associated health problems. Furthermore, direct hemodynamic responses to cold, sudden exertion, poor indoor air quality and respiratory epidemics likely contribute to cold-related mortality. Short- and long-term interventions to enhance energy and housing security and housing quality may reduce temperature-related health problems. Extreme temperatures can increase morbidity and mortality in municipalities like Detroit that experience both extreme heat and prolonged cold seasons amidst large socioeconomic disparities. The similarities in physiologic and built-environment vulnerabilities to both hot and cold weather suggest prioritization of strategies that address both present-day cold and near-future heat concerns.}, }
@article {pmid29904536, year = {2018}, author = {Parker, CT and Cockerham, D and Foss, AW}, title = {Communicating Climate Change: Lessons Learned from a Researcher-Museum Collaboration.}, journal = {Journal of microbiology &amp; biology education}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {29904536}, issn = {1935-7877}, abstract = {The need for science education and outreach is great. However, despite the ever-growing body of available scientific information, facts are often misrepresented to or misunderstood by the general public. This can result in uninformed decisions that negatively impact society at both individual and community levels. One solution to this problem is to make scientific information more available to the public through outreach programs. Most outreach programs, however, focus on health initiatives, STEM programs, or young audiences exclusively. This article describes a collaboration between the Research and Learning Center at the Fort Worth Museum of Science and History and an interdisciplinary team of researchers from the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex area. The collaboration was a pilot effort of a science communication fellowship and was designed to train researchers to effectively convey current science information to the public with a focus on lifelong learning. We focus on the broader idea of a university-museum collaboration that bridges the science communication gap as we outline the process of forming this collaboration, lessons we learned from the process, and directions that can support future collaborations.}, }
@article {pmid29901813, year = {2019}, author = {Senapati, N and Stratonovitch, P and Paul, MJ and Semenov, MA}, title = {Drought tolerance during reproductive development is important for increasing wheat yield potential under climate change in Europe.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {70}, number = {9}, pages = {2549-2560}, pmid = {29901813}, issn = {1460-2431}, support = {BB/P016855/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Europe ; Hot Temperature ; Triticum/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Drought stress during reproductive development could drastically reduce wheat grain number and yield, but quantitative evaluation of such an effect is unknown under climate change. The objectives of this study were to evaluate potential yield benefits of drought tolerance during reproductive development for wheat ideotypes under climate change in Europe, and to identify potential cultivar parameters for improvement. We used the Sirius wheat model to optimize drought-tolerant (DT) and drought-sensitive (DS) wheat ideotypes under a future 2050 climate scenario at 13 contrasting sites, representing major wheat growing regions in Europe. Averaged over the sites, DT ideotypes achieved 13.4% greater yield compared with DS, with higher yield stability. However, the performances of the ideotypes were site dependent. Mean yield of DT was 28-37% greater compared with DS in southern Europe. In contrast, no yield difference (≤1%) between ideotypes was found in north-western Europe. An intermediate yield benefit of 10-23% was found due to drought tolerance in central and eastern Europe. We conclude that tolerance to drought stress during reproductive development is important for high yield potentials and greater yield stability of wheat under climate change in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid29899493, year = {2018}, author = {Brooks, CM and Ainley, DG and Abrams, PA and Dayton, PK and Hofman, RJ and Jacquet, J and Siniff, DB}, title = {Antarctic fisheries: factor climate change into their management.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {558}, number = {7709}, pages = {177-180}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-05372-x}, pmid = {29899493}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Aquatic Organisms ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; Endangered Species/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Environmental Policy/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; Fisheries/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*organization &amp; administration ; Fishes/classification/physiology ; Food Chain ; Oceans and Seas ; Whales ; Wilderness ; }, }
@article {pmid29899341, year = {2018}, author = {Han, Z and Song, W and Deng, X and Xu, X}, title = {Grassland ecosystem responses to climate change and human activities within the Three-River Headwaters region of China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {9079}, pmid = {29899341}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Three-River Headwaters region (TRHR) of China is an important part of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Although the TRHR is rich in grassland resources, the ecosystem of this area is extremely fragile. Natural and artificial interference have been key to the development of grassland ecosystem spatiotemporal heterogeneity, although the intensity and mode of their influence on ecological processes varies depending on scale; analyses in this area are therefore also scale-dependent. We use multi-scale nested data to analyze the mechanisms underlying the influence of climate change and human activities on grassland net primary productivity (NPP) by applying a multi-level modeling approach. The results of this study show that: (1) The annual grassland NPP of the TRHR has risen in a wavelike pattern over time, increasing by 39.88% overall; (2) Differences of 54.9% and 41.1% in temporal grassland NPP can be attributed to variations between these watersheds as well as county characteristics, and; (3) Although the 'warm and moist' climate trend seen over the course of this study has proved beneficial in enhancing grassland NPP, the rate of increase has tended to be faster in relatively dry and warm regions. Economic development and population growth have both exerted negative impacts on grassland NPP.}, }
@article {pmid29897977, year = {2018}, author = {Ameztegui, A and Solarik, KA and Parkins, JR and Houle, D and Messier, C and Gravel, D}, title = {Perceptions of climate change across the Canadian forest sector: The key factors of institutional and geographical environment.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {e0197689}, pmid = {29897977}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forestry ; *Forests ; Humans ; Perception ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Assessing the perception of key stakeholders within the forest sector is critical to evaluating their readiness to engage in adapting to climate change. Here, we report the results of the most comprehensive survey carried out in the Canadian forestry sector to date regarding perceptions of climate change. A total of 1158 individuals, representing a wide range of stakeholders across the five most important forestry provinces in Canada, were asked about climate change, its impact on forest ecosystems, and the suitability of current forest management for addressing future impacts. Overall, we found that respondents were more concerned about climate change than the general population. More than 90% of respondents agreed with the anthropogenic origins of climate change, and > 50% considered it a direct threat to their welfare. Political view was the main driver of general beliefs about the causes of climate change and its future consequences, while the province of origin proved to be the best predictor of perceived current impacts on forest ecosystems and its associated risks; and type of stakeholder was the main driver of perceived need for adaptation. Industrial stakeholders were the most skeptical about the anthropogenic cause(s) of climate change (18% disagreed with this statement, compared to an average of 8% in the other stakeholders), its impacts on forest ecosystems (28% for industry vs. 10% for other respondents), and the need for new management practices (18% vs. 7%). Although the degree of awareness and the willingness to implement adaptive practices were high even for the most skeptical groups, our study identified priority sectors or areas for action when designing awareness campaigns. We suggest that the design of a strategic framework for implementing climate adaptation within the Canadian forest sector should focus on the relationship between climate change and changes in disturbance regimes, and above all on the economic consequences of these changes, but it should also take into account the positions shown by each of the actors in each province.}, }
@article {pmid29888141, year = {2018}, author = {Iannella, M and Cerasoli, F and D'Alessandro, P and Console, G and Biondi, M}, title = {Coupling GIS spatial analysis and Ensemble Niche Modelling to investigate climate change-related threats to the Sicilian pond turtle Emys trinacris, an endangered species from the Mediterranean.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4969}, pmid = {29888141}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The pond turtle Emys trinacris is an endangered endemic species of Sicily showing a fragmented distribution throughout the main island. In this study, we applied "Ensemble Niche Modelling", combining more classical statistical techniques as Generalized Linear Models and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines with machine-learning approaches as Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, to model the potential distribution of the species under current and future climatic conditions. Moreover, a "gap analysis" performed on both the species' presence sites and the predictions from the Ensemble Models is proposed to integrate outputs from these models, in order to assess the conservation status of this threatened species in the context of biodiversity management. For this aim, four "Representative Concentration Pathways", corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissions trajectories were considered to project the obtained models to both 2050 and 2070. Areas lost, gained or remaining stable for the target species in the projected models were calculated. E. trinacris' potential distribution resulted to be significantly dependent upon precipitation-linked variables, mainly precipitation of wettest and coldest quarter. Future negative effects for the conservation of this species, because of more unstable precipitation patterns and extreme meteorological events, emerged from our analyses. Further, the sites currently inhabited by E. trinacris are, for more than a half, out of the Protected Areas network, highlighting an inadequate management of the species by the authorities responsible for its protection. Our results, therefore, suggest that in the next future the Sicilian pond turtle will need the utmost attention by the scientific community to avoid the imminent risk of extinction. Finally, the gap analysis performed in GIS environment resulted to be a very informative post-modeling technique, potentially applicable to the management of species at risk and to Protected Areas' planning in many contexts.}, }
@article {pmid29886957, year = {2018}, author = {Soares, MO}, title = {Climate change and regional human pressures as challenges for management in oceanic islands, South Atlantic.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {131}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {347-355}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.008}, pmid = {29886957}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Brazil ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Introduced Species ; Islands ; Water Pollutants, Chemical ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to determine the main anthropogenic pressures and the effectiveness of management practices in marine protected areas (MPAs) (Rocas Atoll and Fernando de Noronha Archipelago, South Atlantic). The MPAs exhibited high management effectiveness over the last 25 years due to the control of local pressures (i.e., fishing and tourism). However, the increase in regional and global pressures, such as invasive species, marine debris, and climate change stressors (sea-level rise, extreme events, range shifts of species, warming, and ocean acidification), are environmental risks that need to be considered during conservation. Strategies for large scale marine spatial planning, as well as proposals for an integrated management of MPAs (including coral reef islands and seamounts) by the articulation of a network, which reduces regional human pressures and improves ocean governance were discussed. This study provided insights into the challenges faced in the management of MPAs in a rapidly changing ocean.}, }
@article {pmid29885223, year = {2017}, author = {Ossa, PG and Armesto, JJ and Pérez, F}, title = {Assessing the influence of life form and life cycle on the response of desert plants to past climate change: Genetic diversity patterns of an herbaceous lineage of Nolana along western South America.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {104}, number = {10}, pages = {1533-1545}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1700101}, pmid = {29885223}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; Environment ; Genetic Drift ; *Genetic Variation ; Haplotypes ; Life Cycle Stages ; Phylogeography ; Refugium ; Solanaceae/*genetics/physiology ; South America ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Plant responses to past climate change could have been shaped by life-history traits. Here we explore the influence of life form on the response of xerophytic plants to Quaternary climate fluctuations, through a comparison of genetic patterns of codistributed herbaceous and shrubby lineages of the genus Nolana.<br><br>METHODS: We reconstructed the phylogeographic history of a herbaceous lineage of three species of Nolana distributed from a northern arid zone (30&#xb0;S) to a southern wet-temperate (42&#xb0;S) zone, by sequencing two cpDNA regions. Results were compared with similar data published earlier for a congeneric, codistributed shrubby lineage.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: We detected significant genetic differentiation among populations. Divergence of all haplotypes occurred during the Pleistocene, between 245 and 62 kyr ago. For both the shrubby and herbaceous lineages, the greatest haplotype diversity was found in their northern range. However, herbs also retained some diversity at higher latitude. Herbaceous populations were less genetically structured and less differentiated than shrubby ones.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Genetic evidence revealed that both lineages of Nolana survived climate change through the Quaternary, experiencing population collapses and recoveries. Phylogeographic histories present similarities between the two lineages, but also marked differences that can be explained by their differences in life form and life cycle. While the shrubby lineage followed the classical pattern of postglacial expansion toward higher latitudes, species in the herbaceous lineage showed evidence of long-lasting persistence at the southern edge of their current range, suggesting for the first time multiple glacial refugia for a xerophytic plant in southern South America.}, }
@article {pmid29881451, year = {2018}, author = {Hayes, K and Blashki, G and Wiseman, J and Burke, S and Reifels, L}, title = {Climate change and mental health: risks, impacts and priority actions.}, journal = {International journal of mental health systems}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {28}, pmid = {29881451}, issn = {1752-4458}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This article provides an overview of the current and projected climate change risks and impacts to mental health and provides recommendations for priority actions to address the mental health consequences of climate change.<br><br>DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The authors argue the following three points: firstly, while attribution of mental health outcomes to specific climate change risks remains challenging, there are a number of opportunities available to advance the field of mental health and climate change with more empirical research in this domain; secondly, the risks and impacts of climate change on mental health are already rapidly accelerating, resulting in a number of direct, indirect, and overarching effects that disproportionally affect those who are most marginalized; and, thirdly, interventions to address climate change and mental health need to be coordinated and rooted in active hope in order to tackle the problem in a holistic manner. This discussion paper concludes with recommendations for priority actions to address the mental health consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29881244, year = {2018}, author = {Sato, KN and Powell, J and Rudie, D and Levin, LA and , }, title = {Evaluating the promise and pitfalls of a potential climate change-tolerant sea urchin fishery in southern California.}, journal = {ICES journal of marine science : journal du conseil}, volume = {75}, number = {3}, pages = {1029-1041}, pmid = {29881244}, issn = {1054-3139}, support = {T34 GM008228/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Marine fishery stakeholders are beginning to consider and implement adaptation strategies in the face of growing consumer demand and potential deleterious climate change impacts such as ocean warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation. This study investigates the potential for development of a novel climate change-tolerant sea urchin fishery in southern California based on Strongylocentrotus fragilis (pink sea urchin), a deep-sea species whose peak density was found to coincide with a current trap-based spot prawn fishery (Pandalus platyceros) in the 200-300-m depth range. Here we outline potential criteria for a climate change-tolerant fishery by examining the distribution, life-history attributes, and marketable qualities of S. fragilis in southern California. We provide evidence of seasonality of gonad production and demonstrate that peak gonad production occurs in the winter season. S. fragilis likely spawns in the spring season as evidenced by consistent minimum gonad indices in the spring/summer seasons across 4 years of sampling (2012-2016). The resiliency of S. fragilis to predicted future increases in acidity and decreases in oxygen was supported by high species abundance, albeit reduced relative growth rate estimates at water depths (485-510 m) subject to low oxygen (11.7-16.9 µmol kg[-1]) and pHTotal (<7.44), which may provide assurances to stakeholders and managers regarding the suitability of this species for commercial exploitation. Some food quality properties of the S. fragilis roe (e.g. colour, texture) were comparable with those of the commercially exploited shallow-water red sea urchin (Mesocentrotus franciscanus), while other qualities (e.g. 80% reduced gonad size by weight) limit the potential future marketability of S. fragilis. This case study highlights the potential future challenges and drawbacks of climate-tolerant fishery development in an attempt to inform future urchin fishery stakeholders.}, }
@article {pmid29879829, year = {2018}, author = {Mapato, C and Wanapat, M}, title = {New roughage source of Pennisetum purpureum cv. Mahasarakham utilization for ruminants feeding under global climate change.}, journal = {Asian-Australasian journal of animal sciences}, volume = {31}, number = {12}, pages = {1890-1896}, pmid = {29879829}, issn = {1011-2367}, support = {//Khon Kaen University/ ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: As the climate changes, it influences ruminant's feed intake, nutrient digestibility, rumen methane production and emission. This experiment aimed to evaluate the effect of feeding Sweet grass (Pennisetum purpureum cv. Mahasarakham; SG) as a new source of good quality forage to improve feed utilization efficiency and to mitigate rumen methane production and emission.<br><br>METHODS: Four, growing crossbred of Holstein Friesian heifers, 14 months old, were arranged in a 4&#xd7;4 Latin square design to receive four dietary treatments. Treatment 1 (T1) was rice straw (RS) fed on ad libitum with 1.0% body weight (BW) of concentrate (C) supplementation (RS/1.0C). Treatment 2 (T2) and treatment 3 (T3) were SG, fed on ad libitum with 1.0% and 0.5% BW of concentrate supplementation, respectively (SG/1.0C and SG/0.5C, respectively). Treatment 4 (T4) was total Sweet grass fed on ad libitum basis with non-concentrate supplementation (TSG).<br><br>RESULTS: The results revealed that roughage and total feed intake were increased with SG when compared to RS (p<0.01) while TSG was like RS/1.0C treatment. Digestibility of nutrients, nutrients intake, total volatile fatty acids (VFAs), rumen microorganisms were the highest and CH4 was the lowest in the heifers that received SG/1.0C (p<0.01). Total dry matter (DM) feed intake, digestibility and intake of nutrients, total VFAs, NH3-N, bacterial and fungal population of animals receiving SG/0.5C were higher than those fed on RS/1.0C. Reducing of concentrate supplementation with SG as a roughage source increased NH3-N, acetic acid, and fungal populations, but it decreased propionic acid and protozoal populations (p<0.05). However, ruminal pH and blood urea nitrogen were not affected by the dietary treatments (p>0.05).<br><br>CONCLUSION: As the results, SG could be a good forage to improve rumen fermentation, decrease methane production and reduced the level of concentrate supplementation for growing ruminants in the tropics especially under global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29876087, year = {2018}, author = {Salas, EAL and Valdez, R and Michel, S and Boykin, KG}, title = {Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {5124-5138}, pmid = {29876087}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Identifying the factors predicting the high-elevation suitable habitats of Central Asian argali wild sheep and how these suitable habitats are affected by the changing climate regimes could help address conservation and management efforts and identify future critical habitat for the species in eastern Tajikistan. This study used environmental niche models (ENMs) to map and compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for Marco Polo argali. Argali occurrence points were collected during field surveys conducted from 2009 to 2016. Our models showed that terrain ruggedness and annual mean temperature had strong correlations on argali distribution. We then used two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two future time periods (2050 and 2070) to model the impacts of climate change on Marco Polo argali habitat. Results indicated a decline of suitable habitat with majority of losses observed at lower elevations (3,300-4,300 m). Models that considered all variables (climatic and nonclimatic) predicted losses of present suitable areas of 60.6% (6,928 km[2]) and 63.2% (7,219 km[2]) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Results also showed averaged habitat gains of 46.2% (6,106 km[2]) at much higher elevations (4,500-6,900 m) and that elevational shifts of habitat use could occur in the future. Our results could provide information for conservation planning for this near threatened species in the region.}, }
@article {pmid29873062, year = {2019}, author = {Nguyen, GH and Andersen, LK and Davis, MDP}, title = {Climate change and atopic dermatitis: is there a link?.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {58}, number = {3}, pages = {279-282}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.14016}, pmid = {29873062}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Dermatitis, Atopic/*epidemiology/*etiology ; Humans ; Humidity ; Pollen/adverse effects ; Prevalence ; Severity of Illness Index ; Temperature ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic relapsing inflammatory skin disease with a growing health concern, because of its high prevalence and associated low quality of life. The etiology of AD is multifactorial with interaction between various factors such as genetic predisposition, immune, and importantly, environmental factors. Since climate change is associated with a profound shift in environmental factors, we suggest that AD is being influenced by climate change. This review highlights the effects of ultraviolet light, temperature, humidity, pollens, air pollutants, and their interaction between them contributing to the epidemiology and pathophysiology of AD.}, }
@article {pmid29868293, year = {2018}, author = {Castillo, AG and Alò, D and González, BA and Samaniego, H}, title = {Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4907}, pmid = {29868293}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe).<br><br>METHODS: We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests.<br><br>RESULTS: We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid29868106, year = {2018}, author = {Manzoor, SA and Griffiths, G and Iizuka, K and Lukac, M}, title = {Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {664}, pmid = {29868106}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum. This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum.}, }
@article {pmid29867087, year = {2018}, author = {Shi, Z and Crowell, S and Luo, Y and Moore, B}, title = {Model structures amplify uncertainty in predicted soil carbon responses to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2171}, pmid = {29867087}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Large model uncertainty in projected future soil carbon (C) dynamics has been well documented. However, our understanding of the sources of this uncertainty is limited. Here we quantify the uncertainties arising from model parameters, structures and their interactions, and how those uncertainties propagate through different models to projections of future soil carbon stocks. Both the vertically resolved model and the microbial explicit model project much greater uncertainties to climate change than the conventional soil C model, with both positive and negative C-climate feedbacks, whereas the conventional model consistently predicts positive soil C-climate feedback. Our findings suggest that diverse model structures are necessary to increase confidence in soil C projection. However, the larger uncertainty in the complex models also suggests that we need to strike a balance between model complexity and the need to include diverse model structures in order to forecast soil C dynamics with high confidence and low uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid29866444, year = {2018}, author = {Rötter, RP and Hoffmann, MP and Koch, M and Müller, C}, title = {Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {45}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {255-261}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2018.05.009}, pmid = {29866444}, issn = {1879-0356}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/physiology ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances.}, }
@article {pmid29864744, year = {2018}, author = {Espeland, EK and Kettenring, KM}, title = {Strategic plant choices can alleviate climate change impacts: A review.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {222}, number = {}, pages = {316-324}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.05.042}, pmid = {29864744}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Plants ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem services to reduce climate change impacts to local communities. Because plants can alleviate the abiotic and biotic stresses of climate change, purposeful plant choices could improve adaptation. However, there has been no systematic review of how plants can be applied to alleviate effects of climate change. Here we describe how plants can modify climate change effects by altering biological and physical processes. Plant effects range from increasing soil stabilization to reducing the impact of flooding and storm surges. Given the global scale of plant-related activities such as farming, landscaping, forestry, conservation, and restoration, plants can be selected strategically-i.e., planting and maintaining particular species with desired impacts-to simultaneously restore degraded ecosystems, conserve ecosystem function, and help alleviate effects of climate change. Plants are a tool for EbA that should be more broadly and strategically utilized.}, }
@article {pmid29864667, year = {2018}, author = {Li, H and Chen, H and Wang, H and Yu, E}, title = {Future precipitation changes over China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming targets by using CORDEX regional climate models.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {640-641}, number = {}, pages = {543-554}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.324}, pmid = {29864667}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study aims to characterize future changes in precipitation extremes over China based on regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-East Asia project. The results of five RCMs involved in CORDEX-East Asia project that driven by HadGEM2-AO are compared with the simulation of CMA-RegCM driven by BCC-CSM1.1. Eleven precipitation extreme indices that developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices are employed to evaluate precipitation extreme changes over China. Generally, RCMs can reproduce their spatiotemporal characteristics over China in comparison with observations. For future climate projections, RCMs indicate that both the occurrence and intensity of precipitation extremes in most regions of China will increase when the global temperature increases by 1.5/2.0 °C. The yearly maximum five-day precipitation (RX5D) averaged over China is reported to increase by 4.4% via the CMA-RegCM under the 1.5 °C warming in comparison with the baseline period (1986-2005); however, a relatively large increase of 11.1% is reported by the multi-model ensemble median (MME) when using the other five models. Furthermore, the reoccurring risks of precipitation extremes over most regions of China will further increase due to the additional 0.5 °C warming. For example, RX5D will further increase by approximately 8.9% over NWC, 3.8% over NC, 2.3% over SC, and approximately 1.0% over China. Extremes, such as the historical 20-year return period event of yearly maximum one-day precipitation (RX1D) and RX5D, will become more frequent, with occurrences happening once every 8.8 years (RX1D) and 11.5 years (RX5D) under the 1.5 °C warming target, and there will be two fewer years due to the additional 0.5 °C warming. In addition, the intensity of these events will increase by approximately 9.2% (8.5%) under the 1.5 °C warming target and 12.6% (11.0%) under the 2.0 °C warming target for RX1D (RX5D).}, }
@article {pmid29863771, year = {2018}, author = {Chappelka, AH and Neufeld, HS}, title = {A link between physical and chemical climate change: the enhancement of vegetative water loss by atmospheric aerosols.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {219}, number = {1}, pages = {9-11}, doi = {10.1111/nph.15193}, pmid = {29863771}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Aerosols ; *Climate Change ; Plant Leaves ; *Vapor Pressure ; Water ; }, }
@article {pmid29862336, year = {2018}, author = {Nursey-Bray, M and Palmer, R}, title = {Country, climate change adaptation and colonisation: insights from an Indigenous adaptation planning process, Australia.}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {e00565}, pmid = {29862336}, issn = {2405-8440}, abstract = {Indigenous peoples are going to be disproportionately affected by climate change. Developing tailored, place based, and culturally appropriate solutions will be necessary. Yet finding cultural and institutional 'fit' within and between competing values-based climate and environmental management governance regimes remains an ongoing challenge. This paper reports on a collaborative research project with the Arabana people of central Australia, that resulted in the production of the first Indigenous community-based climate change adaptation strategy in Australia. We aimed to try and understand what conditions are needed to support Indigenous driven adaptation initiatives, if there are any cultural differences that need accounting for and how, once developed they be integrated into existing governance arrangements. Our analysis found that climate change adaptation is based on the centrality of the connection to 'country' (traditional land), it needs to be aligned with cultural values, and focus on the building of adaptive capacity. We find that the development of climate change adaptation initiatives cannot be divorced from the historical context of how the Arabana experienced and collectively remember colonisation. We argue that in developing culturally responsive climate governance for and with Indigenous peoples, that that the history of colonisation and the ongoing dominance of entrenched Western governance regimes needs acknowledging and redressing into contemporary environmental/climate management.}, }
@article {pmid29861837, year = {2018}, author = {Kooperman, GJ and Pritchard, MS and O'Brien, TA and Timmermans, BW}, title = {Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present-Day and Climate Change Response of Moderate Rates in the Community Atmosphere Model.}, journal = {Journal of advances in modeling earth systems}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {971-988}, pmid = {29861837}, issn = {1942-2466}, abstract = {Deficiencies in the parameterizations of convection used in global climate models often lead to a distorted representation of the simulated rainfall intensity distribution (i.e., too much rainfall from weak rain rates). While encouraging improvements in high percentile rainfall intensity have been found as the horizontal resolution of the Community Atmosphere Model is increased to ∼25 km, we demonstrate no corresponding improvement in the moderate rain rates that generate the majority of accumulated rainfall. Using a statistical framework designed to emphasize links between precipitation intensity and accumulated rainfall beyond just the frequency distribution, we show that CAM cannot realistically simulate moderate rain rates, and cannot capture their intensification with climate change, even as resolution is increased. However, by separating the parameterized convective and large-scale resolved contributions to total rainfall, we find that the intensity, geographic pattern, and climate change response of CAM's large-scale rain rates are more consistent with observations (TRMM 3B42), superparameterization, and theoretical expectations, despite issues with parameterized convection. Increasing CAM's horizontal resolution does improve the representation of total rainfall intensity, but not due to changes in the intensity of large-scale rain rates, which are surprisingly insensitive to horizontal resolution. Rather, improvements occur through an increase in the relative contribution of the large-scale component to the total amount of accumulated rainfall. Analysis of sensitivities to convective timescale and entrainment rate confirm the importance of these parameters in the possible development of scale-aware parameterizations, but also reveal unrecognized trade-offs from the entanglement of precipitation frequency and total amount.}, }
@article {pmid29860010, year = {2018}, author = {Holmberg, M and Aherne, J and Austnes, K and Beloica, J and De Marco, A and Dirnböck, T and Fornasier, MF and Goergen, K and Futter, M and Lindroos, AJ and Krám, P and Neirynck, J and Nieminen, TM and Pecka, T and Posch, M and Pröll, G and Rowe, EC and Scheuschner, T and Schlutow, A and Valinia, S and Forsius, M}, title = {Modelling study of soil C, N and pH response to air pollution and climate change using European LTER site observations.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {640-641}, number = {}, pages = {387-399}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.299}, pmid = {29860010}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Current climate warming is expected to continue in coming decades, whereas high N deposition may stabilize, in contrast to the clear decrease in S deposition. These pressures have distinctive regional patterns and their resulting impact on soil conditions is modified by local site characteristics. We have applied the VSD+ soil dynamic model to study impacts of deposition and climate change on soil properties, using MetHyd and GrowUp as pre-processors to provide input to VSD+. The single-layer soil model VSD+ accounts for processes of organic C and N turnover, as well as charge and mass balances of elements, cation exchange and base cation weathering. We calibrated VSD+ at 26 ecosystem study sites throughout Europe using observed conditions, and simulated key soil properties: soil solution pH (pH), soil base saturation (BS) and soil organic carbon and nitrogen ratio (C:N) under projected deposition of N and S, and climate warming until 2100. The sites are forested, located in the Mediterranean, forested alpine, Atlantic, continental and boreal regions. They represent the long-term ecological research (LTER) Europe network, including sites of the ICP Forests and ICP Integrated Monitoring (IM) programmes under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), providing high quality long-term data on ecosystem response. Simulated future soil conditions improved under projected decrease in deposition and current climate conditions: higher pH, BS and C:N at 21, 16 and 12 of the sites, respectively. When climate change was included in the scenario analysis, the variability of the results increased. Climate warming resulted in higher simulated pH in most cases, and higher BS and C:N in roughly half of the cases. Especially the increase in C:N was more marked with climate warming. The study illustrates the value of LTER sites for applying models to predict soil responses to multiple environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid29857466, year = {2018}, author = {McGushin, A and Tcholakov, Y and Hajat, S}, title = {Climate Change and Human Health: Health Impacts of Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {29857466}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {In December 2015, a historic agreement was reached at the Paris Climate Conference for the first-ever global deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[...].}, }
@article {pmid29855893, year = {2019}, author = {Krishnan, P and Ananthan, PS and Purvaja, R and Joyson Joe Jeevamani, J and Amali Infantina, J and Srinivasa Rao, C and Anand, A and Mahendra, RS and Sekar, I and Kareemulla, K and Biswas, A and Kalpana Sastry, R and Ramesh, R}, title = {Framework for mapping the drivers of coastal vulnerability and spatial decision making for climate-change adaptation: A case study from Maharashtra, India.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {48}, number = {2}, pages = {192-212}, pmid = {29855893}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Decision Making ; Floods ; India ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change are of particular concern to the coastal region of tropical countries like India, which are exposed to cyclones, floods, tsunami, seawater intrusion, etc. Climate-change adaptation presupposes comprehensive assessment of vulnerability status. Studies so far relied either on remote sensing-based spatial mapping of physical vulnerability or on certain socio-economic aspects with limited scope for upscaling or replication. The current study is an attempt to develop a holistic and robust framework to assess the vulnerability of coastal India at different levels. We propose and estimate cumulative vulnerability index (CVI) as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, at the village level, using nationally comparable and credible datasets. The exposure index (EI) was determined at the village level by decomposing the spatial multi-hazard maps, while sensitivity (SI) and adaptive capacity indices (ACI) were estimated using 23 indicators, covering social and economic aspects. The indicators were identified through the literature review, expert consultations, opinion survey, and were further validated through statistical tests. The socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI) was constructed as a function of sensitivity and adaptive capacity for planning grassroot-level interventions and adaptation strategies. The framework was piloted in Sindhudurg, a coastal district in Maharashtra, India. It comprises 317 villages, spread across three taluks viz., Devgad, Malvan and Vengurla. The villages in Sindhudurg were ranked based on this multi-criteria approach. Based on CVI values, 92 villages (30%) in Sindhudurg were identified as highly vulnerable. We propose a decision tool for identifying villages vulnerable to changing climate, based on their level of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in a two-dimensional matrix, thus aiding in planning location-specific interventions. Here, vulnerability indicators are classified and designated as 'drivers' (indicators with significantly high values and intervention priority) and 'buffers' (indicators with low-to-moderate values) at the village level. The framework provides for aggregation or decomposition of CVI and other sub-indices, in order to plan spatial contingency plans and enable swift action for climate adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid29855875, year = {2018}, author = {Sheng, F and Cao, CG and Li, CF}, title = {Integrated rice-duck farming decreases global warming potential and increases net ecosystem economic budget in central China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {23}, pages = {22744-22753}, pmid = {29855875}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2017YFD0301403//State Key Special Program/ ; 31471454, 31671637, 31670447//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 2016CFA017//Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Animal Husbandry/methods ; Animals ; China ; *Ducks/growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Methane/*analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; *Oryza/growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Over the past decades, many attempts have been made to assess the effects of integrated rice-duck farming on greenhouse gas emissions, use efficient of energy, soil fertility, and economic significance. However, very few studies have been focused on the effects of the farming on net ecosystem economic budget (NEEB). Here, a 2-year field experiment was conducted to comprehensively investigate the effects of ducks raised in paddy fields on CH4 and N2O emissions, global warming potential (GWP), rice grain yield, and NEEB in central China. The experiment included two treatments: integrated rice-duck farming (RD) and conventional rice farming (R). The introduction of ducks into the paddy fields markedly increased the rice grain yield due to enhanced tiller number and root bleeding rate. RD treatment significantly elevated the N2O emissions (p < 0.05) but decreased CH4 emissions (p < 0.05) during rice growing seasons compared with R treatment. Analysis of GWP based on CH4 and N2O emissions showed that compared with R treatment, RD treatment significantly decreased the GWP by 28.1 and 28.0% and reduced the greenhouse gas intensity by 30.6 and 29.8% in 2009 and 2010, respectively. In addition, RD treatment increased NEEB by 40.8 and 39.7% respectively in 2009 and 2010 relative to R treatment. Taken together, our results suggest that the integrated rice-duck farming system is an effective strategy to optimize the economic and environmental benefits of paddy fields in central China.}, }
@article {pmid29855872, year = {2018}, author = {Sequeira, TN and Santos, MS and Magalhães, M}, title = {Climate change and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel data approach.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {23}, pages = {22725-22735}, pmid = {29855872}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007659//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o para a Ci&#xea;ncia e a Tecnologia/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Economic Development ; Global Warming ; Gross Domestic Product ; Models, Econometric ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on economic growth must therefore be analyzed in accordance with its (time-varying) common effects. We present an econometric analysis that evaluates this effect taking into account its global nature. Contrary to previous evidence that ignores the global effects, we obtain that the rising temperature has not decreased growth in real GDP per capita in the second half of the twentieth century for the world countries. However, we obtain a negative effect of rising temperatures and a positive effect of rising precipitation in poor countries. This positive effect of rising precipitation is also confirmed for hot and temperate countries.}, }
@article {pmid29853283, year = {2018}, author = {Araus, JL and Kefauver, SC}, title = {Breeding to adapt agriculture to climate change: affordable phenotyping solutions.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {45}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {237-247}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2018.05.003}, pmid = {29853283}, issn = {1879-0356}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Phenotype ; Plant Breeding/methods ; }, abstract = {Breeding is one of the central pillars of adaptation of crops to climate change. However, phenotyping is a key bottleneck that is limiting breeding efficiency. The awareness of phenotyping as a breeding limitation is not only sustained by the lack of adequate approaches, but also by the perception that phenotyping is an expensive activity. Phenotyping is not just dependent on the choice of appropriate traits and tools (e.g. sensors) but relies on how these tools are deployed on their carrying platforms, the speed and volume of data extraction and analysis (throughput), the handling of spatial variability and characterization of environmental conditions, and finally how all the information is integrated and processed. Affordable high throughput phenotyping aims to achieve reasonably priced solutions for all the components comprising the phenotyping pipeline. This mini-review will cover current and imminent solutions for all these components, from the increasing use of conventional digital RGB cameras, within the category of sensors, to open-access cloud-structured data processing and the use of smartphones. Emphasis will be placed on field phenotyping, which is really the main application for day-to-day phenotyping.}, }
@article {pmid29851645, year = {2017}, author = {Hansen, A and Bi, P}, title = {Climate change adaptation: no one size fits all.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {1}, number = {9}, pages = {e353-e354}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30160-2}, pmid = {29851645}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid29851632, year = {2017}, author = {Lee, JY and Kim, H}, title = {Comprehensive assessment of climate change risks.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {1}, number = {5}, pages = {e166-e167}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30084-0}, pmid = {29851632}, issn = {2542-5196}, }
@article {pmid29851616, year = {2017}, author = {Majeed, H and Lee, J}, title = {The impact of climate change on youth depression and mental health.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {e94-e95}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30045-1}, pmid = {29851616}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Depression/*etiology ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid29851610, year = {2017}, author = {The Lancet Planetary Health, }, title = {Climate change-the wider threat.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {e82}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30052-9}, pmid = {29851610}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid29851604, year = {2017}, author = {Charlesworth, M and Swinton, F}, title = {Anaesthetic gases, climate change, and sustainable practice.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {1}, number = {6}, pages = {e216-e217}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30040-2}, pmid = {29851604}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Anesthesia, Inhalation/instrumentation/*methods ; *Anesthetics, Inhalation ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Gases ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid29851262, year = {2019}, author = {Chen, J and Lin, G and Qin, W and Yan, J and Zhang, T and Su, J}, title = {The roles of calving migration and climate change in the formation of the weak genetic structure in the Tibetan antelope (Pantholops hodgsonii).}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {248-258}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12334}, pmid = {29851262}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Antelopes/*genetics/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; DNA/genetics ; Female ; Genetic Variation ; Parturition ; Phylogeny ; Pregnancy ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Geographical barriers and distance can reduce gene exchange among animals, resulting in genetic divergence of geographically isolated populations. The Tibetan antelope (Pantholops hodgsonii) has a geographical range of approximately 1600 km across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which comprises a series of tall mountains and big rivers. However, previous studies indicate that there is little genetic differentiation among their geographically delineated populations. To better understand the genetic structure of P. hodgsonii populations, we collected 145 samples from the 3 major calving regions, taking into consideration their various calving grounds and migration routes. We used a combination of mitochondrial sequences (Cyt b, ATPase, D-loop and COX I) to investigate the genetic structure and the evolutionary divergence of the populations. Significant, albeit weak, genetic differentiation was detected among the 3 geographical populations. Analysis of the genetic divergence process revealed that the animals gradually entered a period of rapid genetic differentiation approximately 60 000 years ago. The calving migration of P. hodgsonii cannot be the main cause of their weak genetic structure because this cannot fully homogenize the genetic pool. Instead, the geological and climatic events as well as the coupling vegetation succession process during this period have been suggested to greatly contribute to the genetic structure and the expansion of genetic diversity.}, }
@article {pmid29849111, year = {2018}, author = {Haworth, M and Belcher, CM and Killi, D and Dewhirst, RA and Materassi, A and Raschi, A and Centritto, M}, title = {Publisher Correction: Impaired photosynthesis and increased leaf construction costs may induce floral stress during episodes of global warming over macroevolutionary timescales.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {8661}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-26883-7}, pmid = {29849111}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.}, }
@article {pmid29847557, year = {2018}, author = {Rounaghi, I and Hosseinian Yousefkhani, SS}, title = {Effects of climate change on niche shifts of Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi (Reptilia: Agamidae) in Western Asia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {e0197884}, pmid = {29847557}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; *Reptiles ; }, abstract = {Genus Pseudotrapelus has a wide distribution in North Africa and in the Middle East. In the present study, we modeled the habitat suitability of two Omani species of the genus (Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi) to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on their distribution. Mean diurnal range and precipitation of wettest quarter are the most highly contributed variables for P. jensvindumi and P. dhofarensis, respectively. The potential distribution for P. dhofarensis in the current time covers the southern coastal regions of Oman, Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and Socotra Island, but the suitable regions were reduced in the future prediction and limited to Yemen, Socotra Island, and Oman. There have not been any records of the species outside of Oman. Analysis of habitat suitability for P. jensvindumi indicated that the species is restricted to the Al Hajar Mountain of Oman and the southeast coastal region of Iran, but there are no records of the species from Iran. Because mean diurnal range will not be influenced by climate change in future, the potential distribution of the species is not expected to be changed in 2050. All predicted models were performed with the highest AUC (more than 0.97) using the Maxent method. Investigation to find unknown populations of these two species in Iran, Yemen, and Socotra Island is essential for developing conservation programs in the future.}, }
@article {pmid29846783, year = {2018}, author = {Laursen, S and Puniwai, N and Genz, AS and Nash, SAB and Canale, LK and Ziegler-Chong, S}, title = {Collaboration Across Worldviews: Managers and Scientists on Hawai'i Island Utilize Knowledge Coproduction to Facilitate Climate Change Adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {62}, number = {4}, pages = {619-630}, pmid = {29846783}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Decision Making ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Environmental Policy ; Hawaii ; Humans ; Information Dissemination ; Knowledge ; *Research Design ; }, abstract = {Complex socio-ecological issues, such as climate change have historically been addressed through technical problem solving methods. Yet today, climate science approaches are increasingly accounting for the roles of diverse social perceptions, experiences, cultural norms, and worldviews. In support of this shift, we developed a research program on Hawai'i Island that utilizes knowledge coproduction to integrate the diverse worldviews of natural and cultural resource managers, policy professionals, and researchers within actionable science products. Through their work, local field managers regularly experience discrete land and waterscapes. Additionally, in highly interconnected rural communities, such as Hawai'i Island, managers often participate in the social norms and values of communities that utilize these ecosystems. Such local manager networks offer powerful frameworks within which to co-develop and implement actionable science. We interviewed a diverse set of local managers with the aim of incorporating their perspectives into the development of a collaborative climate change research agenda that builds upon existing professional networks utilized by managers and scientists while developing new research products. We report our manager needs assessment, the development process of our climate change program, our interactive forums, and our ongoing research products. Our needs assessment showed that the managers' primary source of information were other professional colleagues, and our in-person forums informed us that local managers are very interested in interacting with a wider range of networks to build upon their management capacities. Our initial programmatic progress suggests that co-created research products and in-person forums strengthen the capacities of local managers to adapt to change.}, }
@article {pmid29845384, year = {2018}, author = {Ogle, SM and Domke, G and Kurz, WA and Rocha, MT and Huffman, T and Swan, A and Smith, JE and Woodall, C and Krug, T}, title = {Delineating managed land for reporting national greenhouse gas emissions and removals to the United Nations framework convention on climate change.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {9}, pmid = {29845384}, issn = {1750-0680}, support = {13-CR-11242305-098//U.S. Forest Service/ ; }, abstract = {Land use and management activities have a substantial impact on carbon stocks and associated greenhouse gas emissions and removals. However, it is challenging to discriminate between anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic sources and sinks from land. To address this problem, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change developed a managed land proxy to determine which lands are contributing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Governments report all emissions and removals from managed land to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change based on this proxy, and policy interventions to reduce emissions from land use are expected to focus on managed lands. Our objective was to review the use of the managed land proxy, and summarize the criteria that governments have applied to classify land as managed and unmanaged. We found that the large majority of governments are not reporting on their application of the managed land proxy. Among the governments that do provide information, most have assigned all area in specific land uses as managed, while designating all remaining lands as unmanaged. This designation as managed land is intuitive for croplands and settlements, which would not exist without management interventions, but a portion of forest land, grassland, and wetlands may not be managed in a country. Consequently, Brazil, Canada and the United States have taken the concept further and delineated managed and unmanaged forest land, grassland and wetlands, using additional criteria such as functional use of the land and accessibility of the land to anthropogenic activity. The managed land proxy is imperfect because reported emissions from any area can include non-anthropogenic sources, such as natural disturbances. However, the managed land proxy does make reporting of GHG emissions and removals from land use more tractable and comparable by excluding fluxes from areas that are not directly influenced by anthropogenic activity. Moreover, application of the managed land proxy can be improved by incorporating additional criteria that allow for further discrimination between managed and unmanaged land.}, }
@article {pmid29844981, year = {2018}, author = {Wei, J and Zhao, Q and Zhao, W and Zhang, H}, title = {Predicting the potential distributions of the invasive cycad scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) under different climate change scenarios and the implications for management.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4832}, pmid = {29844981}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Cycads are an ancient group of gymnosperms that are popular as landscaping plants, though nearly all of them are threatened or endangered in the wild. The cycad aulacaspis scale (CAS), Aulacaspis yasumatsui Takagi (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), has become one of the most serious pests of cycads in recent years; however, the potential distribution range and the management approach for this pest are unclear. A potential risk map of cycad aulacaspis scale was created based on occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors in this study. Furthermore, the future potential distributions of CAS were projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-AO and MIROC5) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The model suggested high environmental suitability for the continents of Asia and North America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential distribution expansions or reductions were also predicted under different climate change conditions. Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor, explaining 48.1% of the distribution of the species. The results also suggested that highly suitable habitat for CAS would exist in the study area if the mean temperature of 15-20 °C in the driest quarter and a mean temperature of 25-28 °C the wettest quarter. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policy to manage and control this invasive pest.}, }
@article {pmid29844952, year = {2018}, author = {Vale, MM and Souza, TV and Alves, MAS and Crouzeilles, R}, title = {Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4689}, pmid = {29844952}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species' representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050.<br><br>METHODS: We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers.<br><br>RESULTS: We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km[2] in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as "no regret" areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies.}, }
@article {pmid29808822, year = {2018}, author = {Chan, AW and Hon, KL and Leung, TF and Ho, MH and Rosa Duque, JS and Lee, TH}, title = {The effects of global warming on allergic diseases.}, journal = {Hong Kong medical journal = Xianggang yi xue za zhi}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {277-284}, doi = {10.12809/hkmj177046}, pmid = {29808822}, issn = {1024-2708}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate ; Environmental Health ; Food Chain ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology ; *Oceans and Seas ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Global warming is a public health emergency. Substantial scientific evidence indicates an unequivocal rising trend in global surface temperature that has caused higher atmospheric levels of moisture retention leading to more frequent extreme weather conditions, shrinking ice volume, and gradually rising sea levels. The concomitant rise in the prevalence of allergic diseases is closely related to these environmental changes because warm and moist environments favour the proliferation of common allergens such as pollens, dust mites, molds, and fungi. Global warming also stresses ecosystems, further accelerating critical biodiversity loss. Excessive carbon dioxide, together with the warming of seawater, promotes ocean acidification and oxygen depletion. This results in a progressive decline of phytoplankton and fish growth that in turn promotes the formation of larger oceanic dead zones, disrupting the food chain and biodiversity. Poor environmental biodiversity and a reduction in the microbiome spectrum are risk factors for allergic diseases in human populations. While climate change and the existence of an allergy epidemic are closely linked according to robust international research, efforts to mitigate these have encountered strong resistance because of vested economic and political concerns in different countries. International collaboration to establish legally binding regulations should be mandatory for forest protection and energy saving. Lifestyle and behavioural changes should also be advocated at the individual level by focusing on low carbon living; avoiding food wastage; and implementing the 4Rs: reduce, reuse, recycle, and replace principles. These lifestyle measures are entirely consistent with the current recommendations for allergy prevention. Efforts to mitigate climate change, preserve biodiversity, and prevent chronic diseases are interdependent disciplines.}, }
@article {pmid29808532, year = {2019}, author = {Li, X and Ge, X and Chen, L and Zhang, L and Wang, T and Zong, S}, title = {Climate change impacts on the potential distribution of Eogystia hippophaecolus in China.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {75}, number = {1}, pages = {215-223}, doi = {10.1002/ps.5092}, pmid = {29808532}, issn = {1526-4998}, support = {31470651//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Life History Traits ; Models, Biological ; Moths/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Seabuckthorn carpenter moth, Eogystia hippophaecolus (Hua, Chou, Fang, &amp; Chen, 1990), is the most important boring pest of sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L.) in the northwest of China. It is responsible for the death of large areas of H. rhamnoides forest, seriously affecting the ecological environment and economic development in north-western China. To clarify the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus in China, the present study used the CLIMEX 4.0.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1981-2010) and simulated future climate data (2011-2100) for China.<br><br>RESULTS: Under historical climate condition, E. hippophaecolus would be found to be distributed mainly between 27&#xb0; N-51&#xb0; N and 74&#xb0; E-134&#xb0; E, with favorable and highly favorable habitats accounting for 35.2% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, E. hippophaecolus would be distributed mainly between 27&#xb0; N-53&#xb0; N and 74&#xb0; E-134&#xb0; E, with the possibility of moving in a northwest direction. Under these conditions, the proportion of the total area providing a favorable and highly favorable habitat may decrease to about 33%.<br><br>CONCLUSION: These results will help to identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus, thereby providing a theoretical basis for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks. &#xa9; 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid29804316, year = {2018}, author = {Li, D and Wu, S and Liu, L and Zhang, Y and Li, S}, title = {Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {9}, pages = {4095-4106}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14327}, pmid = {29804316}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; }, abstract = {Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid29803048, year = {2018}, author = {Zhao, G and Mu, X and Jiao, J and Gao, P and Sun, W and Li, E and Wei, Y and Huang, J}, title = {Assessing response of sediment load variation to climate change and human activities with six different approaches.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {639}, number = {}, pages = {773-784}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.154}, pmid = {29803048}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Understanding the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to variations in sediment load is of great importance for regional soil, and river basin management. Considerable studies have investigated spatial-temporal variation of sediment load within the Loess Plateau; however, contradictory findings exist among methods used. This study systematically reviewed six quantitative methods: simple linear regression, double mass curve, sediment identity factor analysis, dam-sedimentation based method, the Sediment Delivery Distributed (SEDD) model, and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The calculation procedures and merits for each method were systematically explained. A case study in the Huangfuchuan watershed on the northern Loess Plateau has been undertaken. The results showed that sediment load had been reduced by 70.5% during the changing period from 1990 to 2012 compared to that of the baseline period from 1955 to 1989. Human activities accounted for an average of 93.6 ± 4.1% of the total decline in sediment load, whereas climate change contributed 6.4 ± 4.1%. Five methods produced similar estimates, but the linear regression yielded relatively different results. The results of this study provide a good reference for assessing the effects of climate change and human activities on sediment load variation by using different methods.}, }
@article {pmid29802778, year = {2018}, author = {Jeremias, G and Barbosa, J and Marques, SM and Asselman, J and Gonçalves, FJM and Pereira, JL}, title = {Synthesizing the role of epigenetics in the response and adaptation of species to climate change in freshwater ecosystems.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {27}, number = {13}, pages = {2790-2806}, doi = {10.1111/mec.14727}, pmid = {29802778}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; DNA Methylation/genetics ; *Ecosystem ; *Epigenomics ; Fresh Water ; Lakes ; }, abstract = {Freshwater ecosystems are amongst the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Currently, climate change is one of the most important drivers of freshwater transformation and its effects include changes in the composition, biodiversity and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Understanding the capacity of freshwater species to tolerate the environmental fluctuations induced by climate change is critical to the development of effective conservation strategies. In the last few years, epigenetic mechanisms were increasingly put forward in this context because of their pivotal role in gene-environment interactions. In addition, the evolutionary role of epigenetically inherited phenotypes is a relatively recent but promising field. Here, we examine and synthesize the impacts of climate change on freshwater ecosystems, exploring the potential role of epigenetic mechanisms in both short- and long-term adaptation of species. Following this wrapping-up of current evidence, we particularly focused on bringing together the most promising future research avenues towards a better understanding of the effects of climate change on freshwater biodiversity, specifically highlighting potential molecular targets and the most suitable freshwater species for future epigenetic studies in this context.}, }
@article {pmid29801768, year = {2018}, author = {Fernandez, MA and Bucaram, S and Renteria, W}, title = {Corrigendum to "(Non-) robustness of vulnerability assessments to climate change: An application to New Zealand" [J. Environ. Manag. 203 400-412].}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {223}, number = {}, pages = {1098-1099}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.05.038}, pmid = {29801768}, issn = {1095-8630}, }
@article {pmid29801237, year = {2018}, author = {Wagena, MB and Collick, AS and Ross, AC and Najjar, RG and Rau, B and Sommerlot, AR and Fuka, DR and Kleinman, PJA and Easton, ZM}, title = {Impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {637-638}, number = {}, pages = {1443-1454}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.116}, pmid = {29801237}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Nutrient export from agricultural landscapes is a water quality concern and the cause of mitigation activities worldwide. Climate change impacts hydrology and nutrient cycling by changing soil moisture, stoichiometric nutrient ratios, and soil temperature, potentially complicating mitigation measures. This research quantifies the impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrology, nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas emissions in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We force a calibrated model with seven downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate models and derived climate anomalies to assess their impact on hydrology and the export of nitrate (NO3-), phosphorus (P), and sediment, and emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and di-nitrogen (N2). Model-average (±standard deviation) results indicate that climate change, through an increase in precipitation and temperature, will result in substantial increases in winter/spring flow (10.6 ± 12.3%), NO3- (17.3 ± 6.4%), dissolved P (32.3 ± 18.4%), total P (24.8 ± 16.9%), and sediment (25.2 ± 16.6%) export, and a slight increases in N2O (0.3 ± 4.8%) and N2 (0.2 ± 11.8%) emissions. Conversely, decreases in summer flow (-29.1 ± 24.6%) and the export of dissolved P (-15.5 ± 26.4%), total P (-16.3 ± 20.7%), sediment (-20.7 ± 18.3%), and NO3- (-29.1 ± 27.8%) are driven by greater evapotranspiration from increasing summer temperatures. Decreases in N2O (-26.9 ± 15.7%) and N2 (-36.6 ± 22.9%) are predicted in the summer and driven by drier soils. While the changes in flow are related directly to changes in precipitation and temperature, the changes in nutrient and sediment export are, to some extent, driven by changes in agricultural management that climate change induces, such as earlier spring tillage and altered nutrient application timing and by alterations to nutrient cycling in the soil.}, }
@article {pmid29801202, year = {2018}, author = {Jin, L and Whitehead, PG and Appeaning Addo, K and Amisigo, B and Macadam, I and Janes, T and Crossman, J and Nicholls, RJ and McCartney, M and Rodda, HJE}, title = {Modeling future flows of the Volta River system: Impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {637-638}, number = {}, pages = {1069-1080}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.350}, pmid = {29801202}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {As the scientific consensus concerning global climate change has increased in recent decades, research on potential impacts of climate change on water resources has been given high importance. However in Sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have fully evaluated the potential implications of climate change to their water resource systems. The Volta River is one of the major rivers in Africa covering six riparian countries (mainly Ghana and Burkina Faso). It is a principal water source for approximately 24 million people in the region. The catchment is primarily agricultural providing food supplies to rural areas, demonstrating the classic water, food, energy nexus. In this study an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) was applied to the whole Volta River system to simulate flow in the rivers and at the outlet of the artificial Lake Volta. High-resolution climate scenarios downscaled from three different Global Climate Models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES and CanESM2), have been used to drive the INCA model and to assess changes in flow by 2050s and 2090s under the high climate forcing scenario RCP8.5. Results show that peak flows during the monsoon months could increase into the future. The duration of high flow could become longer compared to the recent condition. In addition, we considered three different socio-economic scenarios. As an example, under the combined impact from climate change from downscaling CNRM-CM5 and medium+ (high economic growth) socio-economic changes, the extreme high flows (Q5) of the Black Volta River are projected to increase 11% and 36% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Lake Volta outflow would increase +1% and +5% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively, under the same scenario. The effects of changing socio-economic conditions on flow are minor compared to the climate change impact. These results will provide valuable information assisting future water resource development and adaptive strategies in the Volta Basin.}, }
@article {pmid29800841, year = {2018}, author = {Peng, S and Li, Z}, title = {Potential land use adjustment for future climate change adaptation in revegetated regions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {639}, number = {}, pages = {476-484}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.194}, pmid = {29800841}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {To adapt to future climate change, appropriate land use patterns are desired. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) emphasizing the dominant role of climate can provide a useful baseline to guide the potential land use adjustment. This work is particularly important for the revegetated regions with intensive human perturbation. However, it has received little attention. This study chose China's Loess Plateau, a typical revegetated region, as an example study area to generate the PNV patterns with high spatial resolution over 2071-2100 with a process-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), and further investigated the potential land use adjustment through comparing the simulated and observed land use patterns. Compared with 1981-2010, the projected PNV over 2071-2100 would have less forest and more steppe because of drier climate. Subsequently, 25.3-55.0% of the observed forests and 79.3-91.9% of the observed grasslands in 2010 can be kept over 2071-2100, and the rest of the existing forested area and grassland were expected to be more suitable for steppes and forests, respectively. To meet the request of China's Grain for Green Project, 60.9-84.8% of the existing steep farmland could be converted to grassland and the other for forest. Our results highlight the importance in adjusting the existing vegetation pattern to adapt to climate change. The research approach is extendable and provides a framework to evaluate the sustainability of the existing land use pattern under future climate.}, }
@article {pmid29797078, year = {2018}, author = {Mukwada, G and Manatsa, D}, title = {Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {190}, number = {6}, pages = {358}, pmid = {29797078}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Plant Development ; Rain ; *Satellite Imagery ; Seasons ; South Africa ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.}, }
@article {pmid29795584, year = {2018}, author = {Slama, A and Mallek-Maalej, E and Ben Mohamed, H and Rhim, T and Radhouane, L}, title = {A return to the genetic heritage of durum wheat to cope with drought heightened by climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {e0196873}, pmid = {29795584}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Chlorophyll/biosynthesis ; Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Edible Grain/*genetics/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Optical Imaging ; Peroxidase/metabolism ; Photosynthesis/genetics ; Plant Breeding ; Plant Leaves/*genetics/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Proline/metabolism ; *Rain ; Stress, Physiological/*genetics ; Sugars/metabolism ; Triticum/*genetics/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Water/metabolism ; }, abstract = {The objective of this work was to perform a comparative analysis of the physiological, biochemical and agronomical parameters of recent and heritage durum wheat cultivars (Triticum durum Desf.) under water-deficit conditions. Five cultivars were grown under irrigated (control) and rainfall (stressed) conditions. Different agro-physiological and biochemical parameters were studied: electrolyte leakage, relative water content, chlorophyll fluorescence, proline, soluble sugars, specific peroxidase activity, yield and drought stress indices. It was revealed that a water deficit increased proline content, electrolyte leakage, soluble sugars and specific peroxidase activity and decreased relative water content, fluorescence and grain yield. According to these parameters and drought stress indices, our investigation indicated that old cultivars are the best-adapted to local conditions and showed characteristics of drought tolerance, while recent cultivars showed more drought susceptibility. Therefore, local cultivars of each country should be kept by farmers and plant breeders to preserve their genetic heritage.}, }
@article {pmid29795400, year = {2018}, author = {Atmeh, K and Andruszkiewicz, A and Zub, K}, title = {Climate change is affecting mortality of weasels due to camouflage mismatch.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {7648}, pmid = {29795400}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/physiology ; Animals ; Biological Mimicry/*physiology ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Color ; Demography ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Molting/*physiology ; Mustelidae/*physiology ; Phenotype ; Poland ; Predatory Behavior/physiology ; Seasons ; Snow ; }, abstract = {Direct phenological mismatch caused by climate change can occur in mammals that moult seasonally. Two colour morphs of the weasel Mustela nivalis (M. n.) occur sympatrically in Białowieża Forest (NE Poland) and differ in their winter pelage colour: white in M. n. nivalis and brown in M. n. vulgaris. Due to their small body size, weasels are vulnerable to attacks by a range of different predators; thus cryptic coat colour may increase their winter survival. By analysing trapping data, we found that the share of white subspecies in the weasel population inhabiting Białowieża Forest decreases with decreasing numbers of days with snow cover. This led us to hypothesise that selective predation pressure should favour one of the two phenotypes, according to the prevailing weather conditions in winter. A simple field experiment with weasel models (white and brown), exposed against different background colours, revealed that contrasting models faced significantly higher detection by predators. Our observations also confirmed earlier findings that the plasticity of moult in M. n. nivalis is very limited. This means that climate change will strongly influence the mortality of the nivalis-type due to prolonged camouflage mismatch, which will directly affect the abundance and geographical distribution of this subspecies.}, }
@article {pmid29793679, year = {2018}, author = {Huang, X}, title = {Ecologically unequal exchange, recessions, and climate change: A longitudinal study.}, journal = {Social science research}, volume = {73}, number = {}, pages = {1-12}, doi = {10.1016/j.ssresearch.2018.03.003}, pmid = {29793679}, issn = {1096-0317}, abstract = {This study investigates how the ecologically unequal exchange of carbon dioxide emissions varies with economic recessions. I propose a country-specific approach to examine (1) the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and the "vertical flow" of exports to the United States; and (2) the variations of the relationship before, during, and after two recent economic recessions in 2001 and 2008. Using data on 69 developing nations between 2000 and 2010, I estimate time-series cross-sectional regression models with two-way fixed effects. Results suggest that the vertical flow of exports to the United States is positively associated with carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries. The magnitude of this relationship increased in 2001, 2009, and 2010, and decreased in 2008, but remained stable in non-recession periods, suggesting that economic recessions in the United States are associated with variations of ecologically unequal exchange. Results highlight the impacts of U.S. recessions on carbon emissions in developing countries through the structure of international trade.}, }
@article {pmid29790983, year = {2018}, author = {Zinsstag, J and Crump, L and Schelling, E and Hattendorf, J and Maidane, YO and Ali, KO and Muhummed, A and Umer, AA and Aliyi, F and Nooh, F and Abdikadir, MI and Ali, SM and Hartinger, S and Mäusezahl, D and de White, MBG and Cordon-Rosales, C and Castillo, DA and McCracken, J and Abakar, F and Cercamondi, C and Emmenegger, S and Maier, E and Karanja, S and Bolon, I and de Castañeda, RR and Bonfoh, B and Tschopp, R and Probst-Hensch, N and Cissé, G}, title = {Climate change and One Health.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology letters}, volume = {365}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {29790983}, issn = {1574-6968}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention &amp; control ; *Environmental Exposure ; Food Supply/methods ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Infection Control/*methods ; One Health/*trends ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology/transmission ; }, abstract = {The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29785350, year = {2018}, author = {Durante, LM and Cruz, ICS and Lotufo, TMC}, title = {The effect of climate change on the distribution of a tropical zoanthid (Palythoa caribaeorum) and its ecological implications.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4777}, pmid = {29785350}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Palythoa caribaeorum is a zoanthid often dominant in shallow rocky environments along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean, from the tropics to the subtropics. This species has high environmental tolerance and is a good space competitor in reef environments. Considering current and future scenarios in the global climate regime, this study aimed to model and analyze the distribution of P. caribaeorum, generating maps of potential distribution for the present and the year 2100. The distribution was modeled using maximum entropy (Maxent) based on 327 occurrence sites retrieved from the literature. Calcite concentration, maximum chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, pH, and temperature range yielded a model with the smallest Akaike information criterion (2649.8), and were used in the present and future distribution model. Data from the HadGEM2-ES climate model were used to generate the projections for the year 2100. The present distribution of P. caribaeorum shows that parts of the Brazilian coast, Caribbean Sea, and Florida are suitable regions for the species, as they are characterized by high salinity and pH and small temperature variation. An expansion of the species' distribution was forecast northward under mild climate scenarios, while a decrease of suitable areas was forecast in the south. In the climate scenario with the most intense changes, P. caribaeorum would lose one-half of its suitable habitats, including the northernmost and southernmost areas of its distribution. The Caribbean Sea and northeastern Brazil, as well as other places under the influence of coastal upwellings, may serve as potential havens for this species.}, }
@article {pmid29784905, year = {2018}, author = {King, M and Altdorff, D and Li, P and Galagedara, L and Holden, J and Unc, A}, title = {Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21[st]-century global climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {7904}, pmid = {29784905}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21[st]-century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.}, }
@article {pmid29781429, year = {2018}, author = {The Lancet, }, title = {Turning climate change legislation into public health policy.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {391}, number = {10133}, pages = {1865}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31004-3}, pmid = {29781429}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Health Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid29781219, year = {2018}, author = {Mathias, JM and Thomas, RB}, title = {Disentangling the effects of acidic air pollution, atmospheric CO2 , and climate change on recent growth of red spruce trees in the Central Appalachian Mountains.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {9}, pages = {3938-3953}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14273}, pmid = {29781219}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*pharmacology ; *Air Pollution ; Appalachian Region ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/*pharmacology ; Carbon Isotopes/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Photosynthesis ; Picea/drug effects/*growth &amp; development ; Plant Leaves/metabolism ; Trees/drug effects/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {In the 45 years after legislation of the Clean Air Act, there has been tremendous progress in reducing acidic air pollutants in the eastern United States, yet limited evidence exists that cleaner air has improved forest health. Here, we investigate the influence of recent environmental changes on the growth and physiology of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) trees, a key indicator species of forest health, spanning three locations along a 100 km transect in the Central Appalachian Mountains. We incorporated a multiproxy approach using 75-year tree ring chronologies of basal tree growth, carbon isotope discrimination (∆[13] C, a proxy for leaf gas exchange), and δ[15] N (a proxy for ecosystem N status) to examine tree and ecosystem level responses to environmental change. Results reveal the two most important factors driving increased tree growth since ca. 1989 are reductions in acidic sulfur pollution and increases in atmospheric CO2 , while reductions in pollutant emissions of NOx and warmer springs played smaller, but significant roles. Tree ring ∆[13] C signatures increased significantly since 1989, concurrently with significant declines in tree ring δ[15] N signatures. These isotope chronologies provide strong evidence that simultaneous changes in C and N cycling, including greater photosynthesis and stomatal conductance of trees and increases in ecosystem N retention, were related to recent increases in red spruce tree growth and are consequential to ecosystem recovery from acidic pollution. Intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) of the red spruce trees increased by ~51% across the 75-year chronology, and was driven by changes in atmospheric CO2 and acid pollution, but iWUE was not linked to recent increases in tree growth. This study documents the complex environmental interactions that have contributed to the recovery of red spruce forest ecosystems from pervasive acidic air pollution beginning in 1989, about 15 years after acidic pollutants started to decline in the United States.}, }
@article {pmid29780340, year = {2018}, author = {Ejelöv, E and Hansla, A and Bergquist, M and Nilsson, A}, title = {Regulating Emotional Responses to Climate Change - A Construal Level Perspective.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {629}, pmid = {29780340}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {This experimental study (N = 139) examines the role of emotions in climate change risk communication. Drawing on Construal Level Theory, we tested how abstract vs. concrete descriptions of climate threat affect basic and self-conscious emotions and three emotion regulation strategies: changing oneself, repairing the situation and distancing oneself. In a 2 × 2 between subjects factorial design, climate change consequences were described as concrete/abstract and depicted as spatially proximate/distant. Results showed that, as hypothesized, increased self-conscious emotions mediate overall positive effects of abstract description on self-change and repair attempts. Unexpectedly and independent of any emotional process, a concrete description of a spatially distant consequence is shown to directly increase self-change and repair attempts, while it has no such effects when the consequence is spatially proximate. "Concretizing the remote" might refer to a potentially effective strategy for overcoming spatial distance barriers and motivating mitigating behavior.}, }
@article {pmid29780026, year = {2018}, author = {Osama, T and Brindley, D and Majeed, A and Murray, KA and Shah, H and Toumazos, M and Van Velthoven, M and Car, J and Wells, G and Meinert, E}, title = {Teaching the relationship between health and climate change: a systematic scoping review protocol.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {e020330}, pmid = {29780026}, issn = {2044-6055}, support = {MR/R015600/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health/*education ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Status ; Humans ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The observed and projected impacts of climate change on human health are significant. While climate change has gathered global momentum and is taught frequently, the extent to which the relationships between climate change and health are taught remains uncertain. Education provides an opportunity to create public engagement on these issues, but the extent to which historical implementation of climate health education could be leveraged is not well understood. To address this gap, we propose to conduct a scoping review of all forms of teaching that have been used to illustrate the health effects of climate change between 2005 and 2017, coinciding with a turning point in the public health and climate change agendas following the 2005 Group of 7/8 (G7/8) Summit.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Using Arksey/O'Malley's and Levac's methodological framework, MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Education Resource Information Centre, Web of Science, Global Health, Health Management Information Consortium, Georef, Ebsco and PROSPERO will be systematically searched. Predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied by two independent reviewers to determine study eligibility. Studies published in English and after 2005 only will be examined. Following selection of studies, data will be extracted and analysed.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethical approval is required as exclusively secondary data will be used. Our findings will be communicated to the European Institute of Innovation &amp; Technology Health-Knowledge and Innovation Communities to assist in the development of a FutureLearn Massive Open Online Course on the health effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29778407, year = {2018}, author = {Cowburn, B and Samoilys, MA and Obura, D}, title = {The current status of coral reefs and their vulnerability to climate change and multiple human stresses in the Comoros Archipelago, Western Indian Ocean.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {133}, number = {}, pages = {956-969}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.065}, pmid = {29778407}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/classification/*growth &amp; development ; Climate Change ; Comoros ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollution ; Fisheries ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Indian Ocean ; }, abstract = {Coral bleaching and various human stressors have degraded the coral reefs of the Comoros Archipelago in the past 40 years and rising atmospheric CO2 levels are predicted to further impact marine habitats. The condition of reefs in the Comoros is poorly known; using SCUBA based methods we surveyed reef condition and resilience to bleaching at sites in Grande Comore and Mohéli in 2010 and 2016. The condition of reefs was highly variable, with a range in live coral cover between 6% and 60% and target fishery species biomass between 20 and 500 kg per ha. The vulnerability assessment of reefs to future coral bleaching and their exposure to fishing, soil erosion and river pollution in Mohéli Marine Park found that offshore sites around the islets south of the island were least likely to be impacted by these negative pressures. The high variability in both reef condition and vulnerability across reefs in the Park lends itself to spatially explicit conservation actions. However, it is noteworthy that climate impacts to date appear moderate and that local human pressures are not having a major impact on components of reef health and recovery, suggesting these reefs are relatively resilient to the current anthropogenic stresses that they are experiencing.}, }
@article {pmid29777204, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, X and Wu, W and Perry, L and Ma, Z and Bar-Yosef, O and Cohen, DJ and Zheng, H and Ge, Q}, title = {Critical role of climate change in plant selection and millet domestication in North China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {7855}, pmid = {29777204}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Archaeology ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Domestication ; Millets/*growth &amp; development ; Starch/analysis ; }, abstract = {While North China is one of the earliest independent centers for cereal domestication in the world, the earliest stages of the long process of agricultural origins remain unclear. While only millets were eventually domesticated in early sedentary societies there, recent archaeobotanical evidence reported here indicates that grasses from the Paniceae (including millets) and Triticeae tribes were exploited together by foraging groups from the Last Glacial Maximum to the mid-Holocene. Here we explore how and why millets were selected for domestication while Triticeae were abandoned. We document the different exploitation and cultivation trajectories of the two tribes employing ancient starch data derived from nine archaeological sites dating from 25,000 to 5500 cal BP (LGM through mid-Holocene) in North China. With this diachronic overview, we can place the trajectories into the context of paleoclimatic reconstructions for this period. Entering the Holocene, climatic changes increased the yield stability, abundance, and availability of the wild progenitors of millets, with growing conditions increasingly favoring millets while becoming more unfavorable for grasses of the Triticeae tribe. We thus hypothesize that climate change played a critical role in the selection of millet species for domestication in North China, with early domestication evidenced by 8700 cal BP.}, }
@article {pmid29773751, year = {2018}, author = {Warren, R and Price, J and Graham, E and Forstenhaeusler, N and VanDerWal, J}, title = {The projected effect on insects, vertebrates, and plants of limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {360}, number = {6390}, pages = {791-795}, doi = {10.1126/science.aar3646}, pmid = {29773751}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; *Insecta ; *Plants ; United Nations ; *Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {In the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the United Nations is pursuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C, whereas earlier aspirations focused on a 2°C limit. With current pledges, corresponding to ~3.2°C warming, climatically determined geographic range losses of >50% are projected in ~49% of insects, 44% of plants, and 26% of vertebrates. At 2°C, this falls to 18% of insects, 16% of plants, and 8% of vertebrates and at 1.5°C, to 6% of insects, 8% of plants, and 4% of vertebrates. When warming is limited to 1.5°C as compared with 2°C, numbers of species projected to lose >50% of their range are reduced by ~66% in insects and by ~50% in plants and vertebrates.}, }
@article {pmid29773234, year = {2018}, author = {Tommaso, C and Emanuele, B and Guido, P and Lucia, P and Vincenza, CM and Riccardo, V}, title = {Corrigendum to "Soil organic carbon pool's contribution to climate change mitigation on marginal land of a Mediterranean montane area in Italy" &lt;[J. Environ. Manag. 218 (2018) 593-601]&gt;.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {219}, number = {}, pages = {361}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.05.020}, pmid = {29773234}, issn = {1095-8630}, }
@article {pmid29770962, year = {2018}, author = {Cruz, JP and Felicilda-Reynaldo, RFD and Alshammari, F and Alquwez, N and Alicante, JG and Obaid, KB and Rady, HEAEA and Qtait, M and Silang, JPBT}, title = {Factors Influencing Arab Nursing Students' Attitudes toward Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability and their Inclusion in Nursing Curricula.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {598-605}, doi = {10.1111/phn.12516}, pmid = {29770962}, issn = {1525-1446}, mesh = {Adult ; Arabs/*psychology ; *Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Delivery of Health Care ; Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate/*methods ; Egypt ; Female ; Humans ; Iraq ; Male ; Saudi Arabia ; Students, Nursing/*psychology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To assess the factors influencing the attitudes of Bachelor of Science in Nursing students toward climate change and environmental sustainability and the inclusion of these concepts in the nursing curricula of four Arab countries.<br><br>METHOD: A convenience sample of 1,059 students from four Arab countries was surveyed using the Environmental Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey-2 (SANS-2) questionnaire in this descriptive-comparative study.<br><br>RESULTS: The majority of the respondents exhibited positive attitudes toward the five items of SANS-2, with "Environmental sustainability is an important issue for nursing" receiving the lowest mean score and "Issues about climate change should be included in the nursing curriculum" receiving the highest mean score. Saudi students had more positive attitudes toward environmental sustainability in health care compared with students from Iraq, Egypt, and the Palestinian Territories. Country of residence, type of community, and knowledge about environmental issues and their impact on health in any nursing course were significant factors that influenced attitudes toward environmental sustainability.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The inclusion of climate change and environmental sustainability in nursing curricula in the Arab region was emphasized by the findings. Including environmental sustainability practices in nursing education will help student nurses develop critical thinking and skills in the adaptive delivery of health care, especially when resources are scarce.}, }
@article {pmid29768693, year = {2018}, author = {Mouritsen, KN and Sørensen, MM and Poulin, R and Fredensborg, BL}, title = {Coastal ecosystems on a tipping point: Global warming and parasitism combine to alter community structure and function.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {9}, pages = {4340-4356}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14312}, pmid = {29768693}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Amphipoda/*parasitology ; Animals ; *Global Warming ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; *Hot Temperature ; Snails/*parasitology ; Species Specificity ; Trematoda/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Mounting evidence suggests that the transmission of certain parasites is facilitated by increasing temperatures, causing their host population to decline. However, no study has yet addressed how temperature and parasitism may combine to shape the functional structure of a whole host community in the face of global warming. Here, we apply an outdoor mesocosm approach supported by field surveys to elucidate this question in a diverse intertidal community of amphipods infected by the pathogenic microphallid trematode, Maritrema novaezealandensis. Under present temperature (17°C) and level of parasitism, the parasite had little impact on the host community. However, elevating the temperature to 21°C in the presence of parasites induced massive structural changes: amphipod abundances decreased species-specifically, affecting epibenthic species but leaving infaunal species largely untouched. In effect, species diversity dropped significantly. In contrast, four degree higher temperatures in the absence of parasitism had limited influence on the amphipod community. Further elevating temperatures (19-25°C) and parasitism, simulating a prolonged heat-wave scenario, resulted in an almost complete parasite-induced extermination of the amphipod community at 25°C. In addition, at 19°C, just two degrees above the present average, a similar temperature-parasite synergistic impact on community structure emerged as seen at 21°C under lower parasite pressure. The heat-wave temperature of 25°C per se affected the amphipod community in a comparable way: species diversity declined and the infaunal species were favoured at the expense of epibenthic species. Our experimental findings are corroborated by field data demonstrating a strong negative relationship between current amphipod species richness and the level of Maritrema parasitism across 12 sites. Hence, owing to the synergistic impact of temperature and parasitism, our study predicts that coastal amphipod communities will deteriorate in terms of abundance and diversity in face of anticipated global warming, functionally changing them to be dominated by infaunal species.}, }
@article {pmid29765385, year = {2018}, author = {Lopes, MS and Royo, C and Alvaro, F and Sanchez-Garcia, M and Ozer, E and Ozdemir, F and Karaman, M and Roustaii, M and Jalal-Kamali, MR and Pequeno, D}, title = {Optimizing Winter Wheat Resilience to Climate Change in Rain Fed Crop Systems of Turkey and Iran.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {563}, pmid = {29765385}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Erratic weather patterns associated with increased temperatures and decreasing rainfall pose unique challenges for wheat breeders playing a key part in the fight to ensure global food security. Within rain fed winter wheat areas of Turkey and Iran, unusual weather patterns may prevent attaining maximum potential increases in winter wheat genetic gains. This is primarily related to the fact that the yield ranking of tested genotypes may change from one year to the next. Changing weather patterns may interfere with the decisions breeders make about the ideotype(s) they should aim for during selection. To inform breeding decisions, this study aimed to optimize major traits by modeling different combinations of environments (locations and years) and by defining a probabilistic range of trait variations [phenology and plant height (PH)] that maximized grain yields (GYs; one wheat line with optimal heading and height is suggested for use as a testing line to aid selection calibration decisions). Research revealed that optimal phenology was highly related to the temperature and to rainfall at which winter wheat genotypes were exposed around heading time (20 days before and after heading). Specifically, later winter wheat genotypes were exposed to higher temperatures both before and after heading, increased rainfall at the vegetative stage, and reduced rainfall during grain filling compared to early genotypes. These variations in exposure to weather conditions resulted in shorter grain filling duration and lower GYs in long-duration genotypes. This research tested if diversity within species may increase resilience to erratic weather patterns. For the study, calculated production of a selection of five high yielding genotypes (if grown in five plots) was tested against monoculture (if only a single genotype grown in the same area) and revealed that a set of diverse genotypes with different phenologies and PHs was not beneficial. New strategies of progeny selection are discussed: narrow range of variation for phenology in families may facilitate the discovery and selection of new drought-resistant and avoidant wheat lines targeting specific locations.}, }
@article {pmid29763871, year = {2018}, author = {Jin, L and Whitehead, PG and Rodda, H and Macadam, I and Sarkar, S}, title = {Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {637-638}, number = {}, pages = {907-917}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.349}, pmid = {29763871}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; India ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Water Quality ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology.}, }
@article {pmid29763817, year = {2018}, author = {Ahmadalipour, A and Moradkhani, H}, title = {Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {117}, number = {}, pages = {215-225}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014}, pmid = {29763817}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Africa, Northern/epidemiology ; Aged ; *Global Warming ; Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality ; Humans ; Mediterranean Sea ; Middle East/epidemiology ; Risk ; }, abstract = {Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region.}, }
@article {pmid29763490, year = {2018}, author = {Lundgren, AD}, title = {Climate change and skin disease.}, journal = {Cutis}, volume = {101}, number = {4}, pages = {E12-E14}, pmid = {29763490}, issn = {2326-6929}, mesh = {Arbovirus Infections/*epidemiology/etiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Lyme Disease/*epidemiology/etiology ; Mycoses/*epidemiology/etiology ; Skin Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology/mortality ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.}, }
@article {pmid29760904, year = {2018}, author = {Markle, TM and Kozak, KH}, title = {Low acclimation capacity of narrow-ranging thermal specialists exposes susceptibility to global climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {4644-4656}, pmid = {29760904}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Thermal acclimation is hypothesized to offer a selective advantage in seasonal habitats and may underlie disparities in geographic range size among closely-related species with similar ecologies. Understanding this relationship is also critical for identifying species that are more sensitive to warming climates. Here, we study North American plethodontid salamanders to investigate whether acclimation ability is associated with species' latitudinal extents and the thermal range of the environments they inhabit. We quantified variation in thermal physiology by measuring standard metabolic rate (SMR) at different test and acclimation temperatures for 16 species of salamanders with varying latitudinal extents. A phylogenetically-controlled Markov chain Monte Carlo generalized linear mixed model (MCMCglmm) was then employed to determine whether there are differences in SMR between wide- and narrow-ranging species at different acclimation temperatures. In addition, we tested for a relationship between the acclimation ability of species and the environmental temperature ranges they inhabit. Further, we investigated if there is a trade-off between critical thermal maximum (CTMax) and thermal acclimation ability. MCMCglmm results show a significant difference in acclimation ability between wide and narrow-ranging temperate salamanders. Salamanders with wide latitudinal distributions maintain or slightly increase SMR when subjected to higher test and acclimation temperatures, whereas several narrow-ranging species show significant metabolic depression. We also found significant, positive relationships between acclimation ability and environmental thermal range, and between acclimation ability and CTMax. Wide-ranging salamander species exhibit a greater capacity for thermal acclimation than narrow-ranging species, suggesting that selection for acclimation ability may have been a key factor enabling geographic expansion into areas with greater thermal variability. Further, given that narrow-ranging salamanders are found to have both poor acclimation ability and lower tolerance to warm temperatures, they are likely to be more susceptible to environmental warming associated with anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29760897, year = {2018}, author = {Martin, JM and Mead, JI and Barboza, PS}, title = {Bison body size and climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {4564-4574}, pmid = {29760897}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The relationship between body size and temperature of mammals is poorly resolved, especially for large keystone species such as bison (Bison bison). Bison are well represented in the fossil record across North America, which provides an opportunity to relate body size to climate within a species. We measured the length of a leg bone (calcaneal tuber, DstL) in 849 specimens from 60 localities that were dated by stratigraphy and [14]C decay. We estimated body mass (M) as M = (DstL/11.49)[3]. Average annual temperature was estimated from δ[18]O values in the ice cores from Greenland. Calcaneal tuber length of Bison declined over the last 40,000 years, that is, average body mass was 37% larger (910 ± 50 kg) than today (665 ± 21 kg). Average annual temperature has warmed by 6°C since the Last Glacial Maximum (~24-18 kya) and is predicted to further increase by 4°C by the end of the 21st century. If body size continues to linearly respond to global temperature, Bison body mass will likely decline by an additional 46%, to 357 ± 54 kg, with an increase of 4°C globally. The rate of mass loss is 41 ± 10 kg per°C increase in global temperature. Changes in body size of Bison may be a result of migration, disease, or human harvest but those effects are likely to be local and short-term and not likely to persist over the long time scale of the fossil record. The strong correspondence between body size of bison and air temperature is more likely the result of persistent effects on the ability to grow and the consequences of sustaining a large body mass in a warming environment. Continuing rises in global temperature will likely depress body sizes of bison, and perhaps other large grazers, without human intervention.}, }
@article {pmid29760885, year = {2018}, author = {Slodowicz, D and Descombes, P and Kikodze, D and Broennimann, O and Müller-Schärer, H}, title = {Areas of high conservation value at risk by plant invaders in Georgia under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {4431-4442}, pmid = {29760885}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Invasive alien plants (IAP) are a threat to biodiversity worldwide. Understanding and anticipating invasions allow for more efficient management. In this regard, predicting potential invasion risks by IAPs is essential to support conservation planning into areas of high conservation value (AHCV) such as sites exhibiting exceptional botanical richness, assemblage of rare, and threatened and/or endemic plant species. Here, we identified AHCV in Georgia, a country showing high plant richness, and assessed the susceptibility of these areas to colonization by IAPs under present and future climatic conditions. We used actual protected areas and areas of high plant endemism (identified using occurrences of 114 Georgian endemic plant species) as proxies for AHCV. Then, we assessed present and future potential distribution of 27 IAPs using species distribution models under four climate change scenarios and stacked single-species potential distribution into a consensus map representing IAPs richness. We evaluated present and future invasion risks in AHCV using IAPs richness as a metric of susceptibility. We show that the actual protected areas cover only 9.4% of the areas of high plant endemism in Georgia. IAPs are presently located at lower elevations around the large urban centers and in western Georgia. We predict a shift of IAPs toward eastern Georgia and higher altitudes and an increased susceptibility of AHCV to IAPs under future climate change. Our study provides a good baseline for decision makers and stakeholders on where and how resources should be invested in the most efficient way to protect Georgia's high plant richness from IAPs.}, }
@article {pmid29758903, year = {2018}, author = {Pholkern, K and Saraphirom, P and Srisuk, K}, title = {Potential impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Central Huai Luang Basin, Northeast Thailand.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {633}, number = {}, pages = {1518-1535}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.300}, pmid = {29758903}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Central Huai Luang Basin is one of the important rice producing areas of Udon Thani Province in Northeastern Thailand. The basin is underlain by the rock salt layers of the Maha Sarakham Formation and is the source of saline groundwater and soil salinity. The regional and local groundwater flow systems are the major mechanisms responsible for spreading saline groundwater and saline soils in this basin. Climate change may have an impact on groundwater recharge, on water table depth and the consequences of waterlogging, and on the distribution of soil salinity in this basin. Six future climate conditions from the SEACAM and CanESM2 models were downscaled to investigate the potential impact of future climate conditions on groundwater quantity and quality in this basin. The potential impact was investigated by using a set of numerical models, namely HELP3 and SEAWAT, to estimate the groundwater recharge and flow and the salt transport of groundwater simulation, respectively. The results revealed that within next 30years (2045), the future average annual temperature is projected to increase by 3.1°C and 2.2°C under SEACAM and CanESM2 models, respectively, while the future precipitation is projected to decrease by 20.85% under SEACAM and increase by 18.35% under the CanESM2. Groundwater recharge is projected to increase under the CanESM2 model and to slightly decrease under the SEACAM model. Moreover, for all future climate conditions, the depths of the groundwater water table are projected to continuously increase. The results showed the impact of climate change on salinity distribution for both the deep and shallow groundwater systems. The salinity distribution areas are projected to increase by about 8.08% and 56.92% in the deep and shallow groundwater systems, respectively. The waterlogging areas are also projected to expand by about 63.65% from the baseline period.}, }
@article {pmid29758885, year = {2018}, author = {Mahmoud, SH and Gan, TY}, title = {Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {633}, number = {}, pages = {1329-1344}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.290}, pmid = {29758885}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Desert Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Humans ; Saudi Arabia ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change. Lastly, climate models were used to project future climate change between 2014 and 2100. The analysis of LUC revealed that between 1970 and 2014, built up areas experienced the greatest growth during the study period, leading to a significant monotonic trend. Urban areas increased by 2349.61km[2] between 1970 and 2014, an average increase of >53.4km[2]/yr. The projected LUC between 2014 and 2100 indicate a continued increase in urban areas and irrigated cropland. Human alteration of land use from natural vegetation and forests to other uses after 1970, resulted in a loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which usually have devastating effects on the biodiversity of the region. Resulting in a statistically significant change point in temperature anomaly after 1968 with a warming trend of 0.24°C/decade and a downward trend in precipitation anomaly of 12.2mm/decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions including all anthropogenic sources showed a statistically significant positive trend of 78,090Kt/decade after 1991. This is reflected in the future projection of temperature anomaly between 1900 and 2100 with a future warming trend of 0.19°C/decade. In conclusion, human activities, industrial revelation, deforestation, land use transformation and increase in greenhouse gases had significant implications on the environment and ecosystem services of the study area.}, }
@article {pmid29753342, year = {2018}, author = {Booth, M}, title = {Climate Change and the Neglected Tropical Diseases.}, journal = {Advances in parasitology}, volume = {100}, number = {}, pages = {39-126}, pmid = {29753342}, issn = {2163-6079}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Neglected Diseases/*epidemiology ; Tropical Climate ; Tropical Medicine/*trends ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to impact across every domain of society, including health. The majority of the world's population is susceptible to pathological, infectious disease whose life cycles are sensitive to environmental factors across different physical phases including air, water and soil. Nearly all so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) fall into this category, meaning that future geographic patterns of transmission of dozens of infections are likely to be affected by climate change over the short (seasonal), medium (annual) and long (decadal) term. This review offers an introduction into the terms and processes deployed in modelling climate change and reviews the state of the art in terms of research into how climate change may affect future transmission of NTDs. The 34 infections included in this chapter are drawn from the WHO NTD list and the WHO blueprint list of priority diseases. For the majority of infections, some evidence is available of which environmental factors contribute to the population biology of parasites, vectors and zoonotic hosts. There is a general paucity of published research on the potential effects of decadal climate change, with some exceptions, mainly in vector-borne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid29753228, year = {2018}, author = {Eze, S and Palmer, SM and Chapman, PJ}, title = {Negative effects of climate change on upland grassland productivity and carbon fluxes are not attenuated by nitrogen status.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {637-638}, number = {}, pages = {398-407}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.032}, pmid = {29753228}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon ; *Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Grassland ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Effects of climate change on managed grassland carbon (C) fluxes and biomass production are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the individual and interactive effects of experimental warming (+3 °C above ambient summer daily range of 9-12 °C), supplemental precipitation (333 mm +15%) and drought (333 mm -23%) on plant biomass, microbial biomass C (MBC), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and dissolved organic C (DOC) flux in soil cores from two upland grasslands of different soil nitrogen (N) status (0.54% and 0.37%) in the UK. After one month of acclimation to ambient summer temperature and precipitation, five replicate cores of each treatment were subjected to three months of experimental warming, drought and supplemental precipitation, based on the projected regional summer climate by the end of the 21st Century, in a fully factorial design. NEE and DOC flux were measured throughout the experimental duration, alongside other environmental variables including soil temperature and moisture. Plant biomass and MBC were determined at the end of the experiment. Results showed that warming plus drought resulted in a significant decline in belowground plant biomass (-29 to -37%), aboveground plant biomass (-35 to -77%) and NEE (-13 to -29%), regardless of the N status of the soil. Supplemental precipitation could not reverse the negative effects of warming on the net ecosystem C uptake and plant biomass production. This was attributed to physiological stress imposed by warming which suggests that future summer climate will reduce the C sink capacity of the grasslands. Due to the low moisture retention observed in this study, and to verify our findings, it is recommended that future experiments aimed at measuring soil C dynamics under climate change should be carried out under field conditions. Longer term experiments are recommended to account for seasonal and annual variability, and adaptive changes in biota.}, }
@article {pmid29752540, year = {2018}, author = {Huang, J and Hao, H}, title = {Detecting mismatches in the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering in response to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {8}, pages = {1507-1520}, pmid = {29752540}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {41775109,41275119//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; Flowers/*physiology ; Gossypium/*physiology ; Larva/*physiology ; Moths/*physiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Current evidence suggests that climate change has directly affected the phenology of many invertebrate species associated with agriculture. Such changes in phenology have the potential to cause temporal mismatches between predators and prey and may lead to a disruption in natural pest control ecosystem. Understanding the synchrony between pest insects and host plant responses to climate change is a key step to improve integrated pest management strategies. Cotton bollworm larvae damage cotton, and thus, data from Magaiti County, China, collected during the period of 1990-2015 were analyzed to assess the effects of climate change on cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. The results showed that a warming climate advanced the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. However, the phenological rate of change was faster in cotton bollworm larvae than that in cotton flowering, and the larval period was prolonged, resulting in a great increase of the larval population. The abrupt phenological changes in cotton bollworm larvae occurred earlier than that in cotton, and the abrupt phenological changes in cotton flowering occurred earlier than that in larval abundance. However, the timing of abrupt changes in larval abundance all occurred later than that in temperature. Thus, the abrupt changes that occurred in larvae, cotton flowering and climate were asynchronous. The interval days between the cotton flowering date (CFD) and the half-amount larvae date (HLD) expanded by 3.41 and 4.41 days with a 1 °C increase of Tmean in May and June, respectively. The asynchrony between cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering will likely broaden as the climate changes. The effective temperature in March and April and the end date of larvae (ED) were the primary factors affecting asynchrony.}, }
@article {pmid29751894, year = {2018}, author = {Martinez, PA and Andrade, MA and Bidau, CJ}, title = {Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genus Tityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina.}, journal = {Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology}, volume = {25}, number = {}, pages = {67-72}, doi = {10.1016/j.sste.2018.03.002}, pmid = {29751894}, issn = {1877-5853}, mesh = {Animals ; Argentina/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Scorpion Stings/*epidemiology ; Scorpions/*physiology ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {The temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is changing. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic in time. We analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution by the construction of risk maps. Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future climatic conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we developed risk maps for the analyzed species. Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina are expected to show significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated district in Argentina thus iable to become the most affected by T. trivittatus. These alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies.}, }
@article {pmid29751440, year = {2018}, author = {Luo, P and Zhou, M and Deng, H and Lyu, J and Cao, W and Takara, K and Nover, D and Geoffrey Schladow, S}, title = {Impact of forest maintenance on water shortages: Hydrologic modeling and effects of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {615}, number = {}, pages = {1355-1363}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.044}, pmid = {29751440}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The importance of water quantity for domestic and industrial water supply, agriculture, and the economy more broadly has led to the development of many water quantity assessment methods. In this study, surface flow and soil water in the forested upper reaches of the Yoshino River are compared using a distributed hydrological model with Forest Maintenance Module under two scenarios; before and after forest maintenance. We also examine the impact of forest maintenance on these variables during extreme droughts. Results show that surface flow and soil water increased after forest maintenance. In addition, projections of future water resources were estimated using a hydrological model and the output from a 20km mesh Global Climate Model (GCM20). River discharge for the near-future (2015-2039) is similar to that of the present (1979-2003). Estimated river discharge for the future (2075-2099) was found to be substantially more extreme than in the current period, with 12m[3]/s higher peak discharge in August and 7m[3]/s lower in July compared to the discharges of the present period. Soil water for the future is estimated to be lower than for the present and near future in May. The methods discussed in this study can be applied in other regions and the results help elucidate the impact of forests and climate change on water resources.}, }
@article {pmid29751428, year = {2018}, author = {Vasilevich, R and Lodygin, E and Beznosikov, V and Abakumov, E}, title = {Molecular composition of raw peat and humic substances from permafrost peat soils of European Northeast Russia as climate change markers.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {615}, number = {}, pages = {1229-1238}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.053}, pmid = {29751428}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Humic substances (HSs) from the mire peat soils of the forest-tundra zone of the European northeast part of Russia have been characterized in terms of molecular composition. This was accomplished using solid-state [13]C nuclear magnetic resonance ([13]C NMR) techniques and electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopy. The composition depended on the intensity of cryogenic processes in the active layer, the quality of the humification precursors (the degree of peat material transformation), and the biochemical selection of aromatic fragments during humification. Humic acids (HAs) and fulvic acids (FAs) of the peat soils showed the presence of compounds with a low extent of condensation and a low portion of aromatic fragments, which increased with depth. A higher proportion of aliphatic carbon species was found in the HAs, indicating a low degree of organic matter stabilization. Based on the data from the two types of peat soils, we suggest that particular changes in the proportion of aromatic and unoxidized aliphatic fragments on the border of the bottom of the active layer and permafrost layers can be used as markers of current climatic change.}, }
@article {pmid29751421, year = {2018}, author = {Yang, X and Warren, R and He, Y and Ye, J and Li, Q and Wang, G}, title = {Impacts of climate change on TN load and its control in a River Basin with complex pollution sources.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {615}, number = {}, pages = {1155-1163}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.288}, pmid = {29751421}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {It is increasingly recognized that climate change could affect the quality of water through complex natural and anthropogenic mechanisms. Previous studies on climate change and water quality have mostly focused on assessing its impact on pollutant loads from agricultural runoff. A sub-daily SWAT model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from all known anthropogenic sources including industries, municipal sewage treatment plants, concentrated and scattered feedlot operations, rural households, and crop production in the Upper Huai River Basin. This is a highly polluted basin with total nitrogen (TN) concentrations frequently exceeding Class V of the Chinese Surface Water Quality Standard (GB3838-2002). Climate change projections produced by 16 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in the mid (2040-2060) and late (2070-2090) century were used to drive the SWAT model to evaluate the impacts of climate change on both the TN loads and the effectiveness of three water pollution control measures (reducing fertilizer use, constructing vegetative filter strips, and improving septic tank performance) in the basin. SWAT simulation results have indicated that climate change is likely to cause an increase in both monthly average and extreme TN loads in February, May, and November. The projected impact of climate change on TN loads in August is more varied between GCMs. In addition, climate change is projected to have a negative impact on the effectiveness of septic tanks in reducing TN loads, while its impacts on the other two measures are more uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, reducing fertilizer use remains the most effective measure for reducing TN loads under different climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, improving septic tank performance is relatively more effective in reducing annual TN loads, while constructing vegetative filter strips is more effective in reducing annual maximum monthly TN loads.}, }
@article {pmid29748990, year = {2018}, author = {Crickenberger, S and Wethey, DS}, title = {Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {3804-3819}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14300}, pmid = {29748990}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Thoracica/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species.}, }
@article {pmid29748332, year = {2018}, author = {Burggren, W}, title = {Developmental phenotypic plasticity helps bridge stochastic weather events associated with climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {221}, number = {Pt 9}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.161984}, pmid = {29748332}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Invertebrates/*growth &amp; development ; *Stochastic Processes ; Vertebrates/*growth &amp; development ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {The slow, inexorable rise in annual average global temperatures and acidification of the oceans are often advanced as consequences of global change. However, many environmental changes, especially those involving weather (as opposed to climate), are often stochastic, variable and extreme, particularly in temperate terrestrial or freshwater habitats. Moreover, few studies of animal and plant phenotypic plasticity employ realistic (i.e. short-term, stochastic) environmental change in their protocols. Here, I posit that the frequently abrupt environmental changes (days, weeks, months) accompanying much longer-term general climate change (e.g. global warming over decades or centuries) require consideration of the true nature of environmental change (as opposed to statistical means) coupled with an expansion of focus to consider developmental phenotypic plasticity. Such plasticity can be in multiple forms - obligatory/facultative, beneficial/deleterious - depending upon the degree and rate of environmental variability at specific points in organismal development. Essentially, adult phenotypic plasticity, as important as it is, will be irrelevant if developing offspring lack sufficient plasticity to create modified phenotypes necessary for survival.}, }
@article {pmid29743516, year = {2018}, author = {Tang, L and Duan, X and Kong, F and Zhang, F and Zheng, Y and Li, Z and Mei, Y and Zhao, Y and Hu, S}, title = {Influences of climate change on area variation of Qinghai Lake on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since 1980s.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {7331}, pmid = {29743516}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the most sensitive region to global warming on Earth. Qinghai Lake, the largest lake on the plateau, has experienced evident area variation during the past several decades. To quantify the area changes of Qinghai Lake, a satellite-based survey based on Landsat images from the 1980s to 2010s has been performed. In addition, meteorological data from all the seven available stations on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been analyzed. Area of Qinghai Lake shrank ~2% during 1987-2005, and then increased ~3% from 2005-2016. Meanwhile, the average annual temperature increased 0.319 °C/10 y in the past 50 years, where the value is 0.415 °C/10 y from 2005-2016. The structural equation modeling (SEM) shows that precipitation is the primary factor influencing the area of Qinghai Lake. Moreover, temperature might be tightly correlated with precipitation, snow line, and evaporation, thereby indirectly causes alternations of the lake area. This study elucidated the significant area variation of water body on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau under global warming since 1980s.}, }
@article {pmid29742473, year = {2018}, author = {Magalhães, L and de Montaudouin, X and Figueira, E and Freitas, R}, title = {Trematode infection modulates cockles biochemical response to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {637-638}, number = {}, pages = {30-40}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.432}, pmid = {29742473}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Cardiidae/*parasitology/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Europe ; Oceans and Seas ; *Trematode Infections ; }, abstract = {Resulting mainly from atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) build-up, seawater temperature rise is among the most important climate change related factors affecting costal marine ecosystems. Global warming will have implications on the water cycle, increasing the risk of heavy rainfalls and consequent freshwater input into the oceans but also increasing the frequency of extreme drought periods with consequent salinity increase. For Europe, by the end of the century, projections describe an increase of CO2 concentration up to 1120 ppm (corresponding to 0.5 pH unit decrease), an increase in the water temperature up to 4 °C and a higher frequency of heavy precipitation. These changes are likely to impact many biotic interactions, including host-parasite relationships which are particularly dependent on abiotic conditions. In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that the edible cockle, Cerastoderma edule, exposed to different salinity, temperature and pH levels as proxy for climate change, modify the infection success of the trematode parasite Himasthla elongata, with consequences to cockles biochemical performance. The results showed that the cercariae infection success increased with acidification but higher biochemical alterations were observed in infected cockles exposed to all abiotic experimental stressful conditions tested. The present study suggested that changes forecasted by many models may promote the proliferation of the parasites infective stages in many ecosystems leading to enhanced transmission, especially on temperate regions, that will influence the geographical distribution of some diseases and, probably, the survival capacity of infected bivalves.}, }
@article {pmid29739824, year = {2018}, author = {Philipsborn, RP and Chan, K}, title = {Climate Change and Global Child Health.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {141}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1542/peds.2017-3774}, pmid = {29739824}, issn = {1098-4275}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Child ; Child Advocacy ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/mortality ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Floods ; *Global Health ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Natural Disasters ; Refugees ; }, }
@article {pmid29738631, year = {2018}, author = {Heinemeyer, A and Swindles, GT}, title = {Unraveling past impacts of climate change and land management on historic peatland development using proxy-based reconstruction, monitoring data and process modeling.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {9}, pages = {4131-4142}, pmid = {29738631}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Amoebida/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; England ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Peatlands represent globally significant soil carbon stores that have been accumulating for millennia under water-logged conditions. However, deepening water-table depths (WTD) from climate change or human-induced drainage could stimulate decomposition resulting in peatlands turning from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Contemporary WTD ranges of testate amoebae (TA) are commonly used to predict past WTD in peatlands using quantitative transfer function models. Here we present, for the first time, a study comparing TA-based WTD reconstructions to instrumentally monitored WTD and hydrological model predictions using the MILLENNIA peatland model to examine past peatland responses to climate change and land management. Although there was very good agreement between monitored and modeled WTD, TA-reconstructed water table was consistently deeper. Predictions from a larger European TA transfer function data set were wetter, but the overall directional fit to observed WTD was better for a TA transfer function based on data from northern England. We applied a regression-based offset correction to the reconstructed WTD for the validation period (1931-2010). We then predicted WTD using available climate records as MILLENNIA model input and compared the offset-corrected TA reconstruction to MILLENNIA WTD predictions over an extended period (1750-1931) with available climate reconstructions. Although the comparison revealed striking similarities in predicted overall WTD patterns, particularly for a recent drier period (1965-1995), there were clear periods when TA-based WTD predictions underestimated (i.e. drier during 1830-1930) and overestimated (i.e. wetter during 1760-1830) past WTD compared to MILLENNIA model predictions. Importantly, simulated grouse moor management scenarios may explain the drier TA WTD predictions, resulting in considerable model predicted carbon losses and reduced methane emissions, mainly due to drainage. This study demonstrates the value of a site-specific and combined data-model validation step toward using TA-derived moisture conditions to understand past climate-driven peatland development and carbon budgets alongside modeling likely management impacts.}, }
@article {pmid29738581, year = {2018}, author = {Fodor, N and Foskolos, A and Topp, CFE and Moorby, JM and Pásztor, L and Foyer, CH}, title = {Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {e0197076}, pmid = {29738581}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle ; Climate Change/*economics ; Dairying/economics ; Female ; Heat-Shock Response/*physiology ; Hot Temperature ; Lactation/physiology ; Milk/*economics ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.}, }
@article {pmid29736330, year = {2018}, author = {Archis, JN and Akcali, C and Stuart, BL and Kikuchi, D and Chunco, AJ}, title = {Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4647}, pmid = {29736330}, issn = {2167-8359}, support = {K12 GM000678/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; K12 GM000708/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius, and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.}, }
@article {pmid29733640, year = {2018}, author = {Duan, H and Miller, TR and Liu, G and Zeng, X and Yu, K and Huang, Q and Zuo, J and Qin, Y and Li, J}, title = {Chilling Prospect: Climate Change Effects of Mismanaged Refrigerants in China.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {52}, number = {11}, pages = {6350-6356}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.7b05987}, pmid = {29733640}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants ; China ; *Climate Change ; Czech Republic ; Netherlands ; }, abstract = {The global community has responded to the dual threats of ozone depletion and climate change from refrigerant emissions (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons, CFCs, and hydrofluorocarbons, HFCs) in refrigerators and air conditioners (RACs) by agreeing to phase out the production of the most damaging chemicals and replacing them with substitutes. Since these refrigerants are "banked" in products during their service life, they will continue to impact our environment for decades to come if they are released due to mismanagement at the end of life. Addressing such long-term impacts of refrigerants requires a dynamic understanding of the RACs' life cycle, which was largely overlooked in previous studies. Based on field surveys and a dynamic model, we reveal the lingering ozone depletion potential (ODP) and significant global warming potential (GWP) of scrap refrigerants in China, the world's largest producer (62%) and consumer (46%) of RACs in 2015, which comes almost entirely from air conditioners rather than refrigerators. If the use and waste management of RACs continue with the current trend, the total GWP of scrap refrigerants in China will peak by 2025 at a level of 135.2 ± 18.9 Mt CO2e (equal to approximately 1.2% ± 0.2% of China's total greenhouse gas emissions or the national total of either The Netherlands and Czech Republic in 2015). Our results imply an urgent need for improving the recycling and waste management of RACs in China.}, }
@article {pmid29729183, year = {2018}, author = {de Lafontaine, G and Napier, JD and Petit, RJ and Hu, FS}, title = {Invoking adaptation to decipher the genetic legacy of past climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {7}, pages = {1530-1546}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2382}, pmid = {29729183}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Genetic Variation ; Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Persistence of natural populations during periods of climate change is likely to depend on migration (range shifts) or adaptation. These responses were traditionally considered discrete processes and conceptually divided into the realms of ecology and evolution. In a milestone paper, Davis and Shaw (2001) Science 292:673 argued that the interplay of adaptation and migration was central to biotic responses to Quaternary climate, but since then there has been no synthesis of efforts made to set up this research program. Here we review some of the salient findings from molecular genetic studies assessing ecological and evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate change. These studies have revolutionized our understanding of population processes associated with past species migration. However, knowledge remains limited about the role of natural selection for local adaptation of populations to Quaternary environmental fluctuations and associated range shifts, and for the footprints this might have left on extant populations. Next-generation sequencing technologies, high-resolution paleoclimate analyses, and advances in population genetic theory offer an unprecedented opportunity to test hypotheses about adaptation through time. Recent population genomics studies have greatly improved our understanding of the role of contemporary adaptation to local environments in shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity across modern-day landscapes. Advances in this burgeoning field provide important conceptual and methodological bases to decipher the historical role of natural selection and assess adaptation to past environmental variation. We suggest that a process called "temporal conditional neutrality" has taken place: some alleles favored in glacial environments become selectively neutral in modern-day conditions, whereas some alleles that had been neutral during glacial periods become under selection in modern environments. Building on this view, we present a new integrative framework for addressing the interplay of demographic and adaptive evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate dynamics, the research agenda initially envisioned by Davis and Shaw (2001) Science 292:673.}, }
@article {pmid29728134, year = {2018}, author = {Rodríguez, MA and Angueyra, A and Cleef, AM and Van Andel, T}, title = {Ethnobotany of the Sierra Nevada del Cocuy-Güicán: climate change and conservation strategies in the Colombian Andes.}, journal = {Journal of ethnobiology and ethnomedicine}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {34}, pmid = {29728134}, issn = {1746-4269}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Ethnobotany ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Plants, Edible ; Plants, Medicinal ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Sierra Nevada del Cocuy-Güicán in the Colombian Andes is protected as a National Natural Park since 1977 because of its fragile páramo ecosystems, extraordinary biodiversity, high plant endemism, and function as water reservoir. The vegetation on this mountain is threatened by expanding agriculture, deforestation, tourism, and climate change. We present an ethnobotanical inventory among local farmer communities and discuss the effects of vegetation change on the availability of useful plants.<br><br>METHODS: We used 76 semi-structured, 4 in-depth interviews, and 247 botanical collections to record the ethnoflora of the farmers and surveyed from the high Andean forest to the super-p&#xe1;ramo, including native and introduced species. We organized 3 participative workshops with local children, high school students, and campesinos' women to share the data we acquired in the field and empower local plant conservation awareness.<br><br>RESULTS: We encountered 174 useful plants, most of them native to the area (68%) and almost one third introduced (32%). The Compositae was the most species-rich family, followed by Lamiaceae, Poaceae, and Rosaceae. The majority of plant species were used as medicine, followed by food, firewood, and domestic tools. Local farmers reported declining numbers of p&#xe1;ramo species, which were now only found at higher altitudes than before. Although our informants were worried about the preservation of their natural resources and noticed the effects of climate change, for several commercial species, unsustainable land use and overharvesting seemed to be the direct cause of declining medicinal plant resources rather than climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We recommend conservation plans that include vegetation monitoring, people's perceptions on climate change, and participative actions with the communities of the Sierra Nevada del Cocuy-G&#xfc;ic&#xe1;n.}, }
@article {pmid29727927, year = {2018}, author = {Sundt-Hansen, LE and Hedger, RD and Ugedal, O and Diserud, OH and Finstad, AG and Sauterleute, JF and Tøfte, L and Alfredsen, K and Forseth, T}, title = {Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {631-632}, number = {}, pages = {1005-1017}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.058}, pmid = {29727927}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; Salmo salar/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon.}, }
@article {pmid29727836, year = {2018}, author = {Vigliano, PH and Rechencq, MM and Fernández, MV and Lippolt, GE and Macchi, PJ}, title = {Fish thermal habitat current use and simulation of thermal habitat availability in lakes of the Argentine Patagonian Andes under climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {636}, number = {}, pages = {688-698}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.237}, pmid = {29727836}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Argentina ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*physiology ; Lakes/*chemistry ; Perches ; Temperature ; Trout ; }, abstract = {Habitat use in relation to the thermal habitat availability and food source as a forcing factor on habitat selection and use of Percichthys trucha (Creole perch), Oncorhynchus mykiss (rainbow trout), Salmo trutta (brown trout) and Salvelinus fontinalis (brook trout) were determined as well as future potential thermal habitat availability for these species under climate change scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. This study was conducted in three interconnected lakes of Northern Patagonia (Moreno Lake system). Data on fish abundance was obtained through gill netting and hydroacoustics, and thermal profiles and fish thermal habitat suitability index curves were used to identify current species-specific thermal habitat use. Surface air temperatures from the (NEX GDDP) database for RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 were used to model monthly average temperatures of the water column up to the year 2099 for all three lakes, and to determine potential future habitat availability. In addition, data on fish diet were used to determine whether food could act as a forcing factor in current habitat selection. The four species examined do not use all the thermally suitable habitats currently available to them in the three lakes, and higher fish densities are not necessarily constrained to their "fundamental thermal niches" sensu Magnuson et al. (1979), as extensive use is made of less suitable habitats. This is apparently brought about by food availability acting as a major forcing factor in habitat selection and use. Uncertainties related to the multidimensionality inherent to habitat selection and climate change imply that fish resource management in Patagonia will not be feasible through traditional incremental policies and strategic adjustments based on short-term predictions, but will have to become highly opportunistic and adaptive.}, }
@article {pmid29726229, year = {2018}, author = {Liu, JC and Wang, ZL and Yue, SC and Li, SQ}, title = {[Effects of plastic film mulching and nitrogen application rate on net global warming potential in semiarid rain-fed maize cropland].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {1197-1204}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201804.028}, pmid = {29726229}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Crops, Agricultural ; Fertilizers ; *Global Warming ; Nitrogen ; *Plastics ; Rain ; Soil ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {A one-year field experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of plastic film mulching (FM) and nitrogen application rates applied to rain-fed maize fields on net global warming potential (Net GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) at the Changwu Agricultural and Ecological Experimental Station. Both GWP and GHGI were affected by the plastic film mulching and nitrogen application rate. Under the FM treatment, maize yield ranged from 1643 to 16699 kg·hm[-2], the net GWP (CO2-eq) ranged from 595 to 4376 kg·hm[-2]·a[-1], and the GHGI (CO2-eq) ranged from 213 to 358 kg·t[-1]. The grain yield of maize, net GWP and GHGI for the UM (no mulching) treatment were 956 to 8821 kg·hm[-2], 342 to 4004 kg·hm[-2]·a[-1] and 204 to 520 kg·t[-1], respectively. The results suggested that plastic film mulching could simultaneously improve grain yield and decrease GHGI in rain-fed cropland along with nitrogen fertilizer of 250 kg·hm[-2].}, }
@article {pmid29726224, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, YB and Gao, CH and Qin, H}, title = {[Prediction of the suitable distribution and responses to climate change of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {1156-1162}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201804.011}, pmid = {29726224}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Elaeagnaceae ; Endangered Species ; Entropy ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding the responses of the habitats of endangered species to climate change is of great significance for biodiversity conservation and the maintenance of the integrity of ecosystem function. In this study, the potential suitable distribution habitats of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province was simulated by the maximum entropy model, based on 73 occurrence field records and 35 environmental factors under the current climate condition. Moreover, with the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the dynamics of distribution pattern was analyzed for E. mollis under different climate scenarios. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.987, indicating that the data fitted the model very well and that the prediction was highly reliable. Results from the Jackknife test showed that the main environmental variables affecting the E. mollis distribution were the precipitation seasonality, the range of annual temperature, annual mean temperature, isothermality, annual precipitation, and pH of topsoil, with the cumulative contribution reaching 94.8%. At present, the potential suitable habitats of E. mollis are mainly located in two regions, the southern of Lyuliang Mountain and Zhongtiao Mountain in Shanxi Province. Under different climate scenarios, the total suitable area of E. mollis would shrink in 2070s. In RCP 2.6 the suitable area would firstly increase and then decrease, while in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 it would response sensitively and first decrease and then increase. Its spatial distribution in two suitable regions would show divergent responses to climate change. The distribution in southern Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction, while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate along elevation.}, }
@article {pmid29723929, year = {2018}, author = {Sarà, G and Gouhier, TC and Brigolin, D and Porporato, EMD and Mangano, MC and Mirto, S and Mazzola, A and Pastres, R}, title = {Predicting shifting sustainability trade-offs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {3654-3665}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14296}, pmid = {29723929}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aquaculture ; Aquatic Organisms ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Fisheries/*organization &amp; administration ; *Fishes ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Defining sustainability goals is a crucial but difficult task because it often involves the quantification of multiple interrelated and sometimes conflicting components. This complexity may be exacerbated by climate change, which will increase environmental vulnerability in aquaculture and potentially compromise the ability to meet the needs of a growing human population. Here, we developed an approach to inform sustainable aquaculture by quantifying spatio-temporal shifts in critical trade-offs between environmental costs and benefits using the time to reach the commercial size as a possible proxy of economic implications of aquaculture under climate change. Our results indicate that optimizing aquaculture practices by minimizing impact (this study considers as impact a benthic carbon deposition ≥ 1 g C m[-2] day[-1]) will become increasingly difficult under climate change. Moreover, an increasing temperature will produce a poleward shift in sustainability trade-offs. These findings suggest that future sustainable management strategies and plans will need to account for the effects of climate change across scales. Overall, our results highlight the importance of integrating environmental factors in order to sustainably manage critical natural resources under shifting climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid29722211, year = {2018}, author = {Luo, X and Wang, YL and Zhang, JQ}, title = {[Simulating the effects of climate change and fire disturbance on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {713-724}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201803.011}, pmid = {29722211}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; Fires ; Forests ; *Taiga ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Predicting the effects of climate warming and fire disturbance on forest aboveground biomass is a central task of studies in terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The alteration of temperature, precipitation, and disturbance regimes induced by climate warming will affect the carbon dynamics of forest ecosystem. Boreal forest is an important forest type in China, the responses of which to climate warming and fire disturbance are increasingly obvious. In this study, we used a forest landscape model LANDIS PRO to simulate the effects of climate change on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, and compared direct effects of climate warming and the effects of climate warming-induced fires on forest aboveground biomass. The results showed that the aboveground biomass in this area increased under climate warming scenarios and fire disturbance scenarios with increased intensity. Under the current climate and fire regime scenario, the aboveground biomass in this area was (97.14±5.78) t·hm[-2], and the value would increase up to (97.93±5.83) t·hm[-2] under the B1F2 scenario. Under the A2F3 scenario, aboveground biomass at landscape scale was relatively higher at the simulated periods of year 100-150 and year 150-200, and the value were (100.02±3.76) t·hm[-2] and (110.56±4.08) t·hm[-2], respectively. Compared to the current fire regime scenario, the predicted biomass at landscape scale was increased by (0.56±1.45) t·hm[-2] under the CF2 scenario (fire intensity increased by 30%) at some simulated periods, and the aboveground biomass was reduced by (7.39±1.79) t·hm[-2] in CF3 scenario (fire intensity increased by 230%) at the entire simulation period. There were significantly different responses between coniferous and broadleaved species under future climate warming scenarios, in that the simulated biomass for both Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla showed decreasing trend with climate change, whereas the simulated biomass for Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica, Picea koraiensis and Populus davidiana showed increasing trend at different degrees during the entire simulation period. There was a time lag for the direct effect of climate warming on biomass for coniferous and broadleaved species. The response time of coniferous species to climate warming was 25-30 years, which was longer than that for broadleaf species. The forest landscape in the Great Xing'an Mountains was sensitive to the interactive effect of climate warming (high CO2 emissions) and high intensity fire disturbance. Future climate warming and high intensity forest fire disturbance would significantly change the composition and structure of forest ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid29722153, year = {2018}, author = {Huey, RB and Buckley, LB and DU, W}, title = {Biological buffers and the impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {349-354}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12321}, pmid = {29722153}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid29721700, year = {2018}, author = {Levy, K and Smith, SM and Carlton, EJ}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {272-282}, pmid = {29721700}, issn = {2196-5412}, support = {K01 AI103544/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; Diarrhea/*epidemiology/etiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Waterborne Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid29721285, year = {2018}, author = {Baattrup-Pedersen, A and Garssen, A and Göthe, E and Hoffmann, CC and Oddershede, A and Riis, T and van Bodegom, PM and Larsen, SE and Soons, M}, title = {Structural and functional responses of plant communities to climate change-mediated alterations in the hydrology of riparian areas in temperate Europe.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {8}, pages = {4120-4135}, pmid = {29721285}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The hydrology of riparian areas changes rapidly these years because of climate change-mediated alterations in precipitation patterns. In this study, we used a large-scale in situ experimental approach to explore effects of drought and flooding on plant taxonomic diversity and functional trait composition in riparian areas in temperate Europe. We found significant effects of flooding and drought in all study areas, the effects being most pronounced under flooded conditions. In near-stream areas, taxonomic diversity initially declined in response to both drought and flooding (although not significantly so in all years) and remained stable under drought conditions, whereas the decline continued under flooded conditions. For most traits, we found clear indications that the functional diversity also declined under flooded conditions, particularly in near-stream areas, indicating that fewer strategies succeeded under flooded conditions. Consistent changes in community mean trait values were also identified, but fewer than expected. This can have several, not mutually exclusive, explanations. First, different adaptive strategies may coexist in a community. Second, intraspecific variability was not considered for any of the traits. For example, many species can elongate shoots and petioles that enable them to survive shallow, prolonged flooding but such abilities will not be captured when applying mean trait values. Third, we only followed the communities for 3 years. Flooding excludes species intolerant of the altered hydrology, whereas the establishment of new species relies on time-dependent processes, for instance the dispersal and establishment of species within the areas. We expect that altered precipitation patterns will have profound consequences for riparian vegetation in temperate Europe. Riparian areas will experience loss of taxonomic and functional diversity and, over time, possibly also alterations in community trait responses that may have cascading effects on ecosystem functioning.}, }
@article {pmid29719145, year = {2018}, author = {Pratt, C and Tate, K}, title = {Mitigating Methane: Emerging Technologies To Combat Climate Change's Second Leading Contributor.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {52}, number = {11}, pages = {6084-6097}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.7b04711}, pmid = {29719145}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants ; Climate Change ; Methane ; Waste Disposal Facilities ; *Waste Management ; }, abstract = {Methane (CH4) is the second greatest contributor to anthropogenic climate change. Emissions have tripled since preindustrial times and continue to rise rapidly, given the fact that the key sources of food production, energy generation and waste management, are inexorably tied to population growth. Until recently, the pursuit of CH4 mitigation approaches has tended to align with opportunities for easy energy recovery through gas capture and flaring. Consequently, effective abatement has been largely restricted to confined high-concentration sources such as landfills and anaerobic digesters, which do not represent a major share of CH4's emission profile. However, in more recent years we have witnessed a quantum leap in the sophistication, diversity and affordability of CH4 mitigation technologies on the back of rapid advances in molecular analytical techniques, developments in material sciences and increasingly efficient engineering processes. Here, we present some of the latest concepts, designs and applications in CH4 mitigation, identifying a number of abatement synergies across multiple industries and sectors. We also propose novel ways to manipulate cutting-edge technology approaches for even more effective mitigation potential. The goal of this review is to stimulate the ongoing quest for and uptake of practicable CH4 mitigation options; supplementing established and proven approaches with immature yet potentially high-impact technologies. There has arguably never been, and if we do not act soon nor will there be, a better opportunity to combat climate change's second most significant greenhouse gas.}, }
@article {pmid29718919, year = {2018}, author = {Wabnitz, CCC and Lam, VWY and Reygondeau, G and Teh, LCL and Al-Abdulrazzak, D and Khalfallah, M and Pauly, D and Palomares, MLD and Zeller, D and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {e0194537}, pmid = {29718919}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Aquatic Organisms ; *Biodiversity ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fisheries/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Indian Ocean ; }, abstract = {Climate change-reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions-is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region's diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.}, }
@article {pmid29718292, year = {2018}, author = {Piffaretti, JC and Schink, B and Semenza, JC}, title = {Editorial to the thematic issue climate change and microbiology.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology letters}, volume = {365}, number = {10}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsle/fny080}, pmid = {29718292}, issn = {1574-6968}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid29715668, year = {2018}, author = {Tommaso, C and Emanuele, B and Guido, P and Lucia, P and Vincenza, CM and Riccardo, V}, title = {Soil organic carbon pool's contribution to climate change mitigation on marginal land of a Mediterranean montane area in Italy.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {218}, number = {}, pages = {593-601}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.04.093}, pmid = {29715668}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; Italy ; Soil ; }, abstract = {To evaluate the mitigation potential provided by the SOC pool, we investigated the impact of woody encroachment in the 0-30 cm depth of mineral soil across a natural succession from abandoned pastures and croplands to broadleaves forests on the central Apennine in Italy. In parallel, to assess the effect of the land use change (LUC) from cropland to pasture, a series of pastures established on former agricultural sites, abandoned at different time in the past, were also investigated. Our results show that woody encroachment on former pastures and croplands contributes largely to mitigate climate change, with an increase of the original SOC stock of 45% (40.5 Mg C ha[-1]) and 120% (66.5 Mg C ha[-1]), respectively. Also the LUC from croplands to pastures, greatly contributes to climate change mitigation trough a SOC increase of about 80% of the original SOC (45.9 Mg C ha[-1]). The management of abandoned lands represent a crucial point in the mitigation potential of agriculture and forestry activities, and particularly the role of the SOC pool. A policy effort should focus on minimizing the risk of speculative management options, particularly when the value of woody biomass become convenient to supply new energy systems allowing monetizing a long term forests productivity. In conclusion, despite both the land abandonment and the LUC can have a different impact on the SOC pool under different climatic conditions, these results can be useful to improve the SOC estimates in the National greenhouse gases Inventory at country level.}, }
@article {pmid29715345, year = {2018}, author = {Koh, HK and McCarthy, GA}, title = {Private and Public Sector Responses to Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {319}, number = {17}, pages = {1756-1757}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2018.4804}, pmid = {29715345}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Commerce ; Cooperative Behavior ; Interinstitutional Relations ; *International Cooperation ; *Private Sector ; *Public Sector ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid29714828, year = {2018}, author = {Pires, APF and Srivastava, DS and Marino, NAC and MacDonald, AAM and Figueiredo-Barros, MP and Farjalla, VF}, title = {Interactive effects of climate change and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {5}, pages = {1203-1213}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2202}, pmid = {29714828}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plant Leaves ; }, abstract = {Climate change and biodiversity loss are expected to simultaneously affect ecosystems, however research on how each driver mediates the effect of the other has been limited in scope. The multiple stressor framework emphasizes non-additive effects, but biodiversity may also buffer the effects of climate change, and climate change may alter which mechanisms underlie biodiversity-function relationships. Here, we performed an experiment using tank bromeliad ecosystems to test the various ways that rainfall changes and litter diversity may jointly determine ecological processes. Litter diversity and rainfall changes interactively affected multiple functions, but how depends on the process measured. High litter diversity buffered the effects of altered rainfall on detritivore communities, evidence of insurance against impacts of climate change. Altered rainfall affected the mechanisms by which litter diversity influenced decomposition, reducing the importance of complementary attributes of species (complementarity effects), and resulting in an increasing dependence on the maintenance of specific species (dominance effects). Finally, altered rainfall conditions prevented litter diversity from fueling methanogenesis, because such changes in rainfall reduced microbial activity by 58%. Together, these results demonstrate that the effects of climate change and biodiversity loss on ecosystems cannot be understood in isolation and interactions between these stressors can be multifaceted.}, }
@article {pmid29712890, year = {2018}, author = {Johnson, NC and Xie, SP and Kosaka, Y and Li, X}, title = {Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1724}, pmid = {29712890}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.}, }
@article {pmid29712800, year = {2018}, author = {Adger, WN and Brown, I and Surminski, S}, title = {Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {2121}, pages = {}, pmid = {29712800}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.}, }
@article {pmid29712792, year = {2018}, author = {Brown, I}, title = {Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {2121}, pages = {}, pmid = {29712792}, issn = {1471-2962}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Environment ; Intersectoral Collaboration ; *Policy ; *Risk Assessment ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.}, }
@article {pmid29712791, year = {2018}, author = {Warren, RF and Wilby, RL and Brown, K and Watkiss, P and Betts, RA and Murphy, JM and Lowe, JA}, title = {Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {2121}, pages = {}, pmid = {29712791}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.}, }
@article {pmid29710784, year = {2018}, author = {Wolkinger, B and Haas, W and Bachner, G and Weisz, U and Steininger, K and Hutter, HP and Delcour, J and Griebler, R and Mittelbach, B and Maier, P and Reifeltshammer, R}, title = {Evaluating Health Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in Urban Mobility.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {29710784}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; Air Pollution/economics/*prevention &amp; control ; Austria ; *Climate Change ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Environmental Exposure/economics/*prevention &amp; control ; *Environmental Policy/economics ; *Exercise ; Health Policy ; Health Promotion/economics/methods ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Transportation/economics/methods ; *Urban Health ; Vehicle Emissions/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {There is growing recognition that implementation of low-carbon policies in urban passenger transport has near-term health co-benefits through increased physical activity and improved air quality. Nevertheless, co-benefits and related cost reductions are often not taken into account in decision processes, likely because they are not easy to capture. In an interdisciplinary multi-model approach we address this gap, investigating the co-benefits resulting from increased physical activity and improved air quality due to climate mitigation policies for three urban areas. Additionally we take a (macro-)economic perspective, since that is the ultimate interest of policy-makers. Methodologically, we link a transport modelling tool, a transport emission model, an emission dispersion model, a health model and a macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze three climate change mitigation scenarios. We show that higher levels of physical exercise and reduced exposure to pollutants due to mitigation measures substantially decrease morbidity and mortality. Expenditures are mainly born by the public sector but are mostly offset by the emerging co-benefits. Our macroeconomic results indicate a strong positive welfare effect, yet with slightly negative GDP and employment effects. We conclude that considering economic co-benefits of climate change mitigation policies in urban mobility can be put forward as a forceful argument for policy makers to take action.}, }
@article {pmid29710652, year = {2018}, author = {de Jong, P and Tanajura, CAS and Sánchez, AS and Dargaville, R and Kiperstok, A and Torres, EA}, title = {Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {634}, number = {}, pages = {1540-1553}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.256}, pmid = {29710652}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {By the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25-50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961-90 long-term average. Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been below its long-term average every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be even more severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC high emissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production.}, }
@article {pmid29710632, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, K and Yao, L and Meng, J and Tao, J}, title = {Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {634}, number = {}, pages = {1326-1334}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.112}, pmid = {29710632}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; Paeonia/*physiology ; Plant Dispersal ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×10[5]km[2] and 1.89×10[5]km[2], respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species.}, }
@article {pmid29710627, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, WJ and He, HS and Thompson, FR and Spetich, MA and Fraser, JS}, title = {Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {634}, number = {}, pages = {1214-1221}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.353}, pmid = {29710627}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Forests ; Plant Dispersal ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are not well represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts. We investigate how species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity affect species distribution shifts. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale tree species demography and competition, landscape-scale dispersal and disturbances, and regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the distribution shifts of four representative tree species with distinct biological traits in the central hardwood forest region of United States. Our results suggested that biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age) were important for determining tree species distribution shifts. Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared to perfect environmental conditions. The average distribution shift rates ranged from 24 to 200myear[-1] under climate change scenarios, implying that many tree species may not able to keep up with climate change because of limited dispersal capacity, long generation time, and environmental heterogeneity. We suggest that climate-distribution models should include species demographic processes (e.g., fecundity, dispersal, colonization), biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age), and environmental heterogeneity (e.g., habitat fragmentation) to improve future predictions of species distribution shifts in response to changing climates.}, }
@article {pmid29710574, year = {2018}, author = {Chiabai, A and Quiroga, S and Martinez-Juarez, P and Higgins, S and Taylor, T}, title = {The nexus between climate change, ecosystem services and human health: Towards a conceptual framework.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {1191-1204}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.323}, pmid = {29710574}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Humans ; }, abstract = {This paper addresses the impact that changes in natural ecosystems can have on health and wellbeing focusing on the potential co-benefits that green spaces could provide when introduced as climate change adaptation measures. Ignoring such benefits could lead to sub-optimal planning and decision-making. A conceptual framework, building on the ecosystem-enriched Driver, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action model (eDPSEEA), is presented to aid in clarifying the relational structure between green spaces and human health, taking climate change as the key driver. The study has the double intention of (i) summarising the literature with a special emphasis on the ecosystem and health perspectives, as well as the main theories behind these impacts, and (ii) modelling these findings into a framework that allows for multidisciplinary approaches to the underlying relations between human health and green spaces. The paper shows that while the literature based on the ecosystem perspective presents a well-documented association between climate, health and green spaces, the literature using a health-based perspective presents mixed evidence in some cases. The role of contextual factors and the exposure mechanism are rarely addressed. The proposed framework could serve as a multidisciplinary knowledge platform for multi-perspecitve analysis and discussion among experts and stakeholders, as well as to support the operationalization of quantitative assessment and modelling exercises.}, }
@article {pmid29710562, year = {2018}, author = {Mazaris, AD and Germond, B}, title = {Bridging the gap between climate change and maritime security: Towards a comprehensive framework for planning.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {1076-1080}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.136}, pmid = {29710562}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {For the past two decades, the need to shield strategic maritime interests, to tackle criminality and terrorism at or from the sea and to conserve valuable marine resources has been recognized at the highest political level. Acknowledging and accounting for the interplay between climate change, the vulnerability of coastal populations and the occurrence of maritime criminality should be part of any ocean governance process. Still, given the complex interactions between climate change and socio-economic components of the marine realm, it has become urgent to establish a solid methodological framework, which could lead to sound and effective decisions. We propose that any such framework should not be built from scratch. The adaptation of well tested, existing uncertainty-management tools, such as Cumulative Effect Assessments, could serve as a solid basis to account for the magnitude and directionality of the dependencies between the impacts of climate change and the occurrence of maritime criminality, offering spatial explicit risk evaluations. Multi-Criteria Decision Making could then be employed to better and faster inform decision-makers. These mechanisms could provide a framework for comparison of alternative mitigation and adaptation actions and are essential in assessing responses to tackle maritime crime in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29709838, year = {2018}, author = {Lu, Y and Yuan, J and Lu, X and Su, C and Zhang, Y and Wang, C and Cao, X and Li, Q and Su, J and Ittekkot, V and Garbutt, RA and Bush, S and Fletcher, S and Wagey, T and Kachur, A and Sweijd, N}, title = {Major threats of pollution and climate change to global coastal ecosystems and enhanced management for sustainability.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {239}, number = {}, pages = {670-680}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2018.04.016}, pmid = {29709838}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Pollution ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Coastal zone is of great importance in the provision of various valuable ecosystem services. However, it is also sensitive and vulnerable to environmental changes due to high human populations and interactions between the land and ocean. Major threats of pollution from over enrichment of nutrients, increasing metals and persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and climate change have led to severe ecological degradation in the coastal zone, while few studies have focused on the combined impacts of pollution and climate change on the coastal ecosystems at the global level. A global overview of nutrients, metals, POPs, and major environmental changes due to climate change and their impacts on coastal ecosystems was carried out in this study. Coasts of the Eastern Atlantic and Western Pacific were hotspots of concentrations of several pollutants, and mostly affected by warming climate. These hotspots shared the same features of large populations, heavy industry and (semi-) closed sea. Estimation of coastal ocean capital, integrated management of land-ocean interaction in the coastal zone, enhancement of integrated global observation system, and coastal ecosystem-based management can play effective roles in promoting sustainable management of coastal marine ecosystems. Enhanced management from the perspective of mitigating pollution and climate change was proposed.}, }
@article {pmid29709284, year = {2018}, author = {Williams, ML and Lott, MC and Kitwiroon, N and Dajnak, D and Walton, H and Holland, M and Pye, S and Fecht, D and Toledano, MB and Beevers, SD}, title = {The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act: a modelling study for Great Britain.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {5}, pages = {e202-e213}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6}, pmid = {29709284}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {MR/L01341X/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis ; Air Pollution/adverse effects/*analysis/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; *Energy-Generating Resources ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen Dioxide/adverse effects/analysis ; Ozone/adverse effects/analysis ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects/analysis ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions.<br><br>METHODS: In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes. We used four scenarios and focused on the air pollution implications from fine particulate matter (PM2&#xb7;5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone. The four scenarios were baseline, which assumed no further climate actions beyond those already achieved and did not meet the UK's Climate Change Act (at least an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050 compared with 1990) target; nuclear power, which met the Climate Change Act target with a limited increase in nuclear power; low-greenhouse gas, which met the Climate Change Act target without any policy constraint on nuclear build; and a constant scenario that held 2011 air pollutant concentrations constant until 2050. We predicted the health and economic impacts from air pollution for the scenarios until 2050, and the inequalities in exposure across different socioeconomic groups.<br><br>FINDINGS: NO2 concentrations declined leading to 4&#x2008;892&#x2008;000 life-years saved for the nuclear power scenario and 7&#x2008;178&#x2008;000 life-years saved for the low-greenhouse gas scenario from 2011 to 2154. However, the associations that we used might overestimate the effects of NO2 itself. PM2&#xb7;5 concentrations in Great Britain are predicted to decrease between 42% and 44% by 2050 compared with 2011 in the scenarios that met the Climate Change Act targets, especially those from road traffic and off-road machinery. These reductions in PM2&#xb7;5 are tempered by a 2035 peak (and subsequent decline) in biomass (wood burning), and by a large, projected increase in future demand for transport leading to potential increases in non-exhaust particulate matter emissions. The potential use of biomass in poorly controlled technologies to meet the Climate Change Act commitments would represent an important missed opportunity (resulting in 472&#x2008;000 more life-years lost from PM2&#xb7;5 in the low-greenhouse gas scenario and 1&#x2008;122&#x2008;000 more life-years lost in the nuclear power scenario from PM2&#xb7;5 than the baseline scenario). Although substantial overall improvements in absolute amounts of exposure are seen compared with 2011, these outcomes mask the fact that health inequalities seen (in which socioeconomically disadvantaged populations are among the most exposed) are projected to be maintained up to 2050.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: The modelling infrastructure created will help future researchers explore a wider range of climate policy scenarios, including local, European, and global scenarios. The need to strengthen the links between climate change policy objectives and public health imperatives, and the benefits to societal wellbeing that might result is urgent.<br><br>FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.}, }
@article {pmid29707963, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, Y and An, S and Xing, M and Wan, Y and Liu, Q}, title = {Global warming and heart disease prevention.}, journal = {European journal of preventive cardiology}, volume = {25}, number = {12}, pages = {1342}, doi = {10.1177/2047487318774846}, pmid = {29707963}, issn = {2047-4881}, mesh = {Global Health ; *Global Warming ; *Heart Diseases/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Morbidity/trends ; Primary Prevention/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid29706437, year = {2018}, author = {Dasgupta, S}, title = {Burden of climate change on malaria mortality.}, journal = {International journal of hygiene and environmental health}, volume = {221}, number = {5}, pages = {782-791}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijheh.2018.04.003}, pmid = {29706437}, issn = {1618-131X}, mesh = {Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Malaria/*mortality ; Male ; }, abstract = {In 2016, an estimated 445,000 deaths and 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposures such as temperature and precipitation make malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1980 and 2010, we find a non-linear relationship between temperature and malaria mortality and estimate that the global optimal temperature threshold beyond which all-age malaria mortality increases is 20.8 °C, while in the case of child mortality; a significantly lower optimum temperature of 19.3° is estimated. Our results also suggest that this optimal temperature is 28.4 °C and 26.3 °C in Africa and Asia, respectively - the continents where malaria is most prevalent. Furthermore, we estimate that child mortality (ages 0-4) is likely to increase by up to 20% in some areas due to climate change by the end of the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid29705434, year = {2018}, author = {Mahmoud, SH and Gan, TY}, title = {Urbanization and climate change implications in flood risk management: Developing an efficient decision support system for flood susceptibility mapping.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {636}, number = {}, pages = {152-167}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.282}, pmid = {29705434}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The effects of urbanization and climate change impact to the flood risk of two governorates in Egypt were analyzed. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to the annual rainfall, rainfall anomaly, and temperature anomaly of both study sites. Next, change points and trends of the annual and monthly surface runoff data generated by the Curve Number method over 1948-2014 were also analyzed to detect the effects of urbanization on the surface runoff. Lastly, a GIS decision support system was developed to delineate flood susceptibility zones for the two governorates. The significant decline in annual rainfall and rainfall anomaly after 1994 at 8.96 and 15.3 mm/decade respectively was likely due to climate change impact, especially significant warming trend since 1976 at 0.16 °C/decade, though that could partly be attributed to rapid urbanization. Since 1970, effects of urbanization to flood risk are clear, because despite a decline in rainfall, the annual surface runoff and runoff anomaly show positive trends of 12.7 and of 14.39 mm/decade, respectively. Eleven flood contributing factors have been identified and used in mapping flood susceptibility zones of both sites. In the El-Beheira governorate, 9.2%, 17.9%, 32.3%, 28.3% and 12.3% of its area are categorized as very high, high, moderate, low and very low susceptibility to flooding, respectively. Similarly, in Alexandria governorate, 15.9%, 33.5%, 41%, 8.8% and 0.8% of its area are categorized as very high, high, moderate, low and very low susceptibility to flooding, respectively. Very high and high susceptible zones are located in the northern, northwestern and northeastern parts of the Beheira governorates, and in the northeastern and northwestern parts of Alexandria. The flood related information obtained in this study will be useful to assist mitigating potential flood damages and future land use planning of both governorates of Egypt.}, }
@article {pmid29704714, year = {2018}, author = {Crick, F and Jenkins, K and Surminski, S}, title = {Strengthening insurance partnerships in the face of climate change - Insights from an agent-based model of flood insurance in the UK.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {636}, number = {}, pages = {192-204}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.239}, pmid = {29704714}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Multisectoral partnerships are increasingly cited as a mechanism to deliver and improve disaster risk management. Yet, partnerships are not a panacea and more research is required to understand the role that they can play in disaster risk management and particularly disaster risk reduction. This paper investigates how partnerships can incentivise flood risk reduction by focusing on the UK public-private partnership on flood insurance. Developing the right flood insurance arrangements to incentivise flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change is a key challenge. In the face of rising flood risks due to climate change and socio-economic development insurance partnerships can no longer afford to focus only on the risk transfer function. However, while expectations of the insurance industry have traditionally been high when it comes to flood risk management, the insurance industry alone will not provide the solution to the challenge of rising risks. The case of flood insurance in the UK illustrates this: even national government and industry together cannot fully address these risks and other actors need to be involved to create strong incentives for risk reduction. Using an agent-based model focused on surface water flood risk in London we analyse how other partners could strengthen the insurance partnership by reducing flood risk and thus helping to maintain affordable insurance premiums. Our findings are relevant for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and also internationally.}, }
@article {pmid29702612, year = {2018}, author = {Fischer, H and Schütte, S and Depoux, A and Amelung, D and Sauerborn, R}, title = {How Well Do COP22 Attendees Understand Graphs on Climate Change Health Impacts from the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report?.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {29702612}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Comprehension ; Congresses as Topic ; *Data Visualization ; Humans ; Pilot Projects ; *Public Health ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Graphs are prevalent in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), often depicting key points and major results. However, the popularity of graphs in the IPCC reports contrasts with a neglect of empirical tests of their understandability. Here we put the understandability of three graphs taken from the Health chapter of the Fifth Assessment Report to an empirical test. We present a pilot study where we evaluate objective understanding (mean accuracy in multiple-choice questions) and subjective understanding (self-assessed confidence in accuracy) in a sample of attendees of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh, 2016 (COP22), and a student sample. Results show a mean objective understanding of M = 0.33 for the COP sample, and M = 0.38 for the student sample. Subjective and objective understanding were unrelated for the COP22 sample, but associated for the student sample. These results suggest that (i) understandability of the IPCC health chapter graphs is insufficient, and that (ii) particularly COP22 attendees lacked insight into which graphs they did, and which they did not understand. Implications for the construction of graphs to communicate health impacts of climate change to decision-makers are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid29701771, year = {2018}, author = {Buckley, LB and Cannistra, AF and John, A}, title = {Leveraging Organismal Biology to Forecast the Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {58}, number = {1}, pages = {38-51}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icy018}, pmid = {29701771}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {Animals ; Bivalvia/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Invertebrates/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Vertebrates/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Despite the pressing need for accurate forecasts of ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental change, commonly used modeling approaches exhibit mixed performance because they omit many important aspects of how organisms respond to spatially and temporally variable environments. Integrating models based on organismal phenotypes at the physiological, performance, and fitness levels can improve model performance. We summarize current limitations of environmental data and models and discuss potential remedies. The paper reviews emerging techniques for sensing environments at fine spatial and temporal scales, accounting for environmental extremes, and capturing how organisms experience the environment. Intertidal mussel data illustrate biologically important aspects of environmental variability. We then discuss key challenges in translating environmental conditions into organismal performance including accounting for the varied timescales of physiological processes, for responses to environmental fluctuations including the onset of stress and other thresholds, and for how environmental sensitivities vary across lifecycles. We call for the creation of phenotypic databases to parameterize forecasting models and advocate for improved sharing of model code and data for model testing. We conclude with challenges in organismal biology that must be solved to improve forecasts over the next decade.}, }
@article {pmid29698101, year = {2018}, author = {Esty, DC and Bell, ML}, title = {Business Leadership in Global Climate Change Responses.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S80-S84}, pmid = {29698101}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Commerce ; *Environmental Policy ; Environmental Pollution ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Internationality ; *Leadership ; United States ; }, abstract = {In the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement, 195 countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in recognition of the scientific consensus on the consequences of climate change, including substantial public health burdens. In June 2017, however, US president Donald Trump announced that the United States would not implement the Paris Agreement. We highlight the business community's backing for climate change action in the United States. Just as the US federal government is backing away from its Paris commitments, many corporate executives are recognizing the need to address the greenhouse gas emissions of their companies and the business logic of strong environmental, social, and governance practices more generally. We conclude that climate change could emerge as an issue on which the business and public health communities might align and provide leadership.}, }
@article {pmid29698096, year = {2018}, author = {Samet, JM and Woodward, A}, title = {National Government Denial of Climate Change and State and Local Public Health Action in a Federalist System.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S112-S113}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2018.304395}, pmid = {29698096}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Coal ; Environmental Pollution ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Public Health Administration/methods ; United States ; United States Environmental Protection Agency/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid29698093, year = {2018}, author = {Bell, M and Greenberg, MR}, title = {Climate Change and Human Health: Links Between History, Policy, and Science.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S54-S55}, pmid = {29698093}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; *History ; Humans ; *Policy ; Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid29698091, year = {2018}, author = {Parker-Flynn, JE}, title = {Linking Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S58-S59}, pmid = {29698091}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {California ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid29698090, year = {2018}, author = {Moulton, AD}, title = {Legal Authority and State Public Health Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S109-S110}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2017.304204}, pmid = {29698090}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {Capacity Building/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Leadership ; Population Health ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *State Government ; }, }
@article {pmid29698088, year = {2018}, author = {Goldstein, BD and Greenberg, MR}, title = {Global Climate Change and the "So What?" Issue: Reversing the Impact of Donald Trump.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S78-S79}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2017.304264}, pmid = {29698088}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; Environmental Pollution ; Humans ; *Politics ; Sustainable Growth ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid29697173, year = {2018}, author = {Chen, L and Huang, JG and Ma, Q and Hänninen, H and Rossi, S and Piao, S and Bergeron, Y}, title = {Spring phenology at different altitudes is becoming more uniform under global warming in Europe.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {9}, pages = {3969-3975}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14288}, pmid = {29697173}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Europe ; *Global Warming ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; Trees/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Under current global warming, high-elevation regions are expected to experience faster warming than low-elevation regions. However, due to the lack of studies based on long-term large-scale data, the relationship between tree spring phenology and the elevation-dependent warming is unclear. Using 652k records of leaf unfolding of five temperate tree species monitored during 1951-2013 in situ in Europe, we discovered a nonlinear trend in the altitudinal sensitivity (SA , shifted days per 100 m in altitude) in spring phenology. A delayed leaf unfolding (2.7 ± 0.6 days per decade) was observed at high elevations possibly due to decreased spring forcing between 1951 and 1980. The delayed leaf unfolding at high-elevation regions was companied by a simultaneous advancing of leaf unfolding at low elevations. These divergent trends contributed to a significant increase in the SA (0.36 ± 0.07 days 100/m per decade) during 1951-1980. Since 1980, the SA started to decline with a rate of -0.32 ± 0.07 days 100/m per decade, possibly due to reduced chilling at low elevations and improved efficiency of spring forcing in advancing the leaf unfolding at high elevations, the latter being caused by increased chilling. Our results suggest that due to both different temperature changes at the different altitudes, and the different tree responses to these changes, the tree phenology has shifted at different rates leading to a more uniform phenology at different altitudes during recent decades.}, }
@article {pmid29695135, year = {2018}, author = {Herrmann, A and Sauerborn, R}, title = {General Practitioners' Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change-A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {29695135}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Female ; General Practitioners/*psychology ; Germany ; Health Services Research ; Health Services for the Aged/organization &amp; administration/standards ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Male ; Perception ; Qualitative Research ; }, abstract = {Heat health impacts (HHI) on the elderly are a growing concern in the face of climate change and aging populations. General practitioners (GPs) have an important role in health care for the elderly. To inform the development of effective prevention measures, it is important to investigate GPs’ perceptions of HHI. Twenty four qualitative expert interviews were conducted with GPs and analyzed using the framework approach. GPs were generally aware of heat health impacts, focusing on cardiovascular morbidity and volume imbalances. Perceptions of mortality and for instance impacts on respiratory diseases or potentially risky drugs in heat waves partly diverged from findings in literature. GPs judged the current relevance of HHI differently depending on their attitudes towards: (i) sensitivity of the elderly, (ii) status of nursing care and (iii) heat exposure in Baden-W&amp;uuml;rttemberg. Future relevance of HHI was perceived to be increasing by most GPs. The main cause identified for this was population aging, while impacts of climate change were judged as uncertain by many. GPs’ perceptions, partly diverging from literature, show that GPs’ knowledge and awareness on HHI and climate change needs to be strengthened. However, they also emphasize the need for more research on HHI in the ambulant health care setting. Furthermore, GPs perceptions suggest that strong nursing care and social networks for elderly are major elements of a climate resilient health system.}, }
@article {pmid29694355, year = {2018}, author = {Imbach, P and Chou, SC and Lyra, A and Rodrigues, D and Rodriguez, D and Latinovic, D and Siqueira, G and Silva, A and Garofolo, L and Georgiou, S}, title = {Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0193570}, pmid = {29694355}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Central America ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961-1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021-2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021-2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario.}, }
@article {pmid29692086, year = {2017}, author = {Yu, J and Liu, QJ and Zhou, G and Meng, SW and Zhou, H and Xu, ZZ and Shi, JN and Du, WX}, title = {[Response of radial growth of Pinus koraiensis and Picea jezoensis to climate change in Xiao-xing'anling Mountains, Northeast China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {28}, number = {11}, pages = {3451-3460}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201711.008}, pmid = {29692086}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Picea ; *Pinus ; }, abstract = {Based on dendrochronological methods, we established residual chronologies of Pinus koraiensis and Picea jezoensis, with the dominant species of broadleaved Korean pine mixed forest at low altitudes chosen as the research object, to identify the key climatic factors affecting the radial growth of the two species in Xiaoxing'anling Mountains, Northeast China. The results showed that the responses of the two species to climate factors were different, and P. koraiensis was more sensitive, and hence more suitable for dendroclimatological analysis. Response function coefficients indicated that the radial growth of P. koraiensis negatively correlated with June mean temperature of current year, while positively correlated with precipitation in June of current year. There was no significant correlation between P. jezoensis and all climate variables. Spatial correlation analysis revealed that variations in chronology of P. koraiensis contained strong regional signals, and the highest correlation occurred in the vicinity of the study area. Warming caused drought stress, which was the main factor that limited the growth of P. koraiensis, and it might have adverse effects on the Korean pine if global temperature continues to increase. The coupling effects of large-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability may affect the radial growth of P. koraiensis in Xiaoxing'anling Mountains.}, }
@article {pmid29692054, year = {2018}, author = {Huo, XY and Peng, SZ and Ren, JY and Cao, Y and Chen, YM}, title = {[Dynamic change of Pinus tabuliformis forest productivity and its response to future climate change in Shaanxi Province, China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {412-420}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201802.006}, pmid = {29692054}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Pinus ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {This study analyzed the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabuliformis forest under future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100, using a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). The results showed that in the 2015-2100 period, annual mean temperature of this region would significantly increase by 0.12, 0.23 and 0.54 ℃·10 a[-1] under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the annual precipitation would have no significant change under climate scenarios except RCP4.5, under which it would significantly increase by 14.36 mm·10 a[-1]. Compared with the NPP of P. tabuliformis forest in the historical period (1961-1990), it would increase by 1.6%-29.6% in the future period, and the enhancement could reach 45.4% at the end of this century (2071-2100) under RCP8.5 scenario. The NPP under the RCP8.5 scenario was the highest, followed by the RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. During 2015-2100, the NPP in the northern Shaanxi region would significantly decrease with the rate of 41.00 and 21.00 g C·m[-2]·10 a[-1] under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively, implying that this area has the potentiality to be carbon source.}, }
@article {pmid29692022, year = {2018}, author = {Wu, Z and Dong, YB and Xiong, ZQ}, title = {[Effects of biochar application three-years ago on global warming potentials of CH4 and N2O in a rice-wheat rotation system].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {141-148}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201801.028}, pmid = {29692022}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Charcoal ; *Crop Production ; *Global Warming ; Methane ; Nitrous Oxide ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Soil ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {To evaluate the long-term effects of biochar amendment on greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), a field experiment was conducted to examine the effects of 3-year field-aged biochar (B3) and fresh biochar (B0) on global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in a typical rice-wheat rotation system. Four treatments were established as control without nitrogen fertilizer (CK), urea without biochar (N), urea with fresh biochar amended in 2015 (NB0), and urea with 3-year field-aged biochar amended in 2012 (NB3). Results showed that both the NB0 and NB3 treatments obviously increased soil pH, soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN) and influenced the potential activity of functional microorganisms related to GHGs compared to the N treatment. Relative to the N treatment, the NB3 treatment significantly improved crop yield by 14.1% while reduced the CH4 and N2O emissions by 9.0% and 34.0%, respectively. In addition, the NB0 treatment significantly improved crop yield by 9.3%, while reduced the N2O emission by 38.6% though increased the CH4 emissions by 4.7% relative to the N treatment. Moreover, both the NB0 and NB3 treatments could significantly reduce both GWP and GHGI, with NB3 being more effective in simultaneously mitigating the GHGs emissions and enhancing crop yield. Since field-aged biochar showed obvious effects on GHGs mitigation and carbon sequestration after 3 years, biochar incorporations had long-term effect on GHGs mitigation and crop production in the rice-wheat rotation system.}, }
@article {pmid29692017, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, H and Chen, HH and Tang, LS and Wang, JH and Tang, HY}, title = {[Temporal and spatial change of climate resources and meteorological disasters under climate change during winter crop growing season in Guangdong Province, China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {93-102}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201801.015}, pmid = {29692017}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Crop Production ; *Disasters ; Droughts ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Trend analysis method was applied to analyze the general variation characteristics of the climate resources and meteorological disasters of growing season of the winter planting in Guangdong before (1961-1996) and after climate warming (1997-2015). Percentile method was employed to determine thresholds for extreme cold and drought in major planting regions, and the characteristics of extreme disasters since climate warming were analyzed. The results showed that, by comparing 1997-2015 with 1961-1996, the heat value in winter growing season increased significantly. The belt with a higher heat value, where the average temperature was ≥15 ℃ and accumulated temperature was ≥2200 ℃·d, covered the main winter production regions as Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Meizhou and Guangzhou. Meanwhile, the precipitation witnessed a slight increase. The regions with precipitations of 250-350 mm included Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and Meizhou. Chilling injury in the winter planting season in the regions decreased, the belt with an accumulated chilling of <2 ℃·d covered the major geographic parts of the involved regions as Zhanjiang, Maoming, Guangzhou and Huizhou; and the belt with an accumulated chilling of 8-16 ℃·d covered the major geographic parts of Shaoguan and Meizhou. Meanwhile, the drought days decreased, the belt with drought days ≥50 included the major geographic parts of Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and the belt with drought days <50 included the major geographic parts of Shaoguan. The typical case of the extreme disasters showed that the extreme chilling injury and drought in the main producing regions should not be overlooked. Maoming, Huizhou and Meizhou were at higher risk of extreme chilling injury, followed by Shaoguan and Guangzhou. Zhanjiang and Maoming faced the highest risk of extreme drought, Huizhou and Guangzhou took the second place, Shaoguan and Meizhou went last. During 1997-2015, the heat of winter season increased significantly, the trend of chilling and drought decreased, however, the extreme disasters occurred frequently and the risks were higher in winter production areas. It was suggested that the winter planting should be closely integrated with climate resources and the occurrence law of meteorological disasters in growing season.}, }
@article {pmid29691942, year = {2018}, author = {Samplonius, JM and Bartošová, L and Burgess, MD and Bushuev, AV and Eeva, T and Ivankina, EV and Kerimov, AB and Krams, I and Laaksonen, T and Mägi, M and Mänd, R and Potti, J and Török, J and Trnka, M and Visser, ME and Zang, H and Both, C}, title = {Phenological sensitivity to climate change is higher in resident than in migrant bird populations among European cavity breeders.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {3780-3790}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14160}, pmid = {29691942}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Nesting Behavior/*physiology ; Passeriformes/classification/*physiology ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Many organisms adjust their reproductive phenology in response to climate change, but phenological sensitivity to temperature may vary between species. For example, resident and migratory birds have vastly different annual cycles, which can cause differential temperature sensitivity at the breeding grounds, and may affect competitive dynamics. Currently, however, adjustment to climate change in resident and migratory birds have been studied separately or at relatively small geographical scales with varying time series durations and methodologies. Here, we studied differential effects of temperature on resident and migratory birds using the mean egg laying initiation dates from 10 European nest box schemes between 1991 and 2015 that had data on at least one resident tit species and at least one migratory flycatcher species. We found that both tits and flycatchers advanced laying in response to spring warming, but resident tit populations advanced more strongly in relation to temperature increases than migratory flycatchers. These different temperature responses have already led to a divergence in laying dates between tits and flycatchers of on average 0.94 days per decade over the current study period. Interestingly, this divergence was stronger at lower latitudes where the interval between tit and flycatcher phenology is smaller and winter conditions can be considered more favorable for resident birds. This could indicate that phenological adjustment to climate change by flycatchers is increasingly hampered by competition with resident species. Indeed, we found that tit laying date had an additional effect on flycatcher laying date after controlling for temperature, and this effect was strongest in areas with the shortest interval between both species groups. Combined, our results suggest that the differential effect of climate change on species groups with overlapping breeding ecology affects the phenological interval between them, potentially affecting interspecific interactions.}, }
@article {pmid29691632, year = {2018}, author = {Eikenberry, SE and Gumel, AB}, title = {Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review.}, journal = {Journal of mathematical biology}, volume = {77}, number = {4}, pages = {857-933}, pmid = {29691632}, issn = {1432-1416}, support = {EF-0832858//National Science Foundation/International ; }, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Animals ; Anopheles/growth &amp; development/parasitology ; *Climate Change/history ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology/history/*transmission ; Mathematical Concepts ; *Models, Biological ; Mosquito Vectors/growth &amp; development/parasitology ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.}, }
@article {pmid29691504, year = {2018}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Clear signs of global warming will hit poorer countries first.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {556}, number = {7702}, pages = {415-416}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-04854-2}, pmid = {29691504}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Developed Countries/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Developing Countries/*economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Geographic Mapping ; Global Warming/*economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; International Cooperation ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid29687305, year = {2018}, author = {Kirch, DG and Petelle, K}, title = {Addressing the Health Effects of Climate Change: an Approach Based on Evidence and Ethics.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {324-326}, doi = {10.1007/s40596-018-0907-5}, pmid = {29687305}, issn = {1545-7230}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ethics, Medical ; *Evidence-Based Medicine ; Humans ; Mental Health ; *Public Health ; Societies, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid29686289, year = {2018}, author = {Montwé, D and Isaac-Renton, M and Hamann, A and Spiecker, H}, title = {Cold adaptation recorded in tree rings highlights risks associated with climate change and assisted migration.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1574}, pmid = {29686289}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature/*adverse effects ; Genotype ; North America ; Seasons ; Seeds/physiology ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {With lengthening growing seasons but increased temperature variability under climate change, frost damage to plants may remain a risk and could be exacerbated by poleward planting of warm-adapted seed sources. Here, we study cold adaptation of tree populations in a wide-ranging coniferous species in western North America to inform limits to seed transfer. Using tree-ring signatures of cold damage from common garden trials designed to study genetic population differentiation, we find opposing geographic clines for spring frost and fall frost damage. Provenances from northern regions are sensitive to spring frosts, while the more productive provenances from central and southern regions are more susceptible to fall frosts. Transferring the southern, warm-adapted genotypes northward causes a significant loss of growth and a permanent rank change after a spring frost event. We conclude that cold adaptation should remain an important consideration when implementing seed transfers designed to mitigate harmful effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29685733, year = {2018}, author = {Varshney, RK and Singh, VK and Kumar, A and Powell, W and Sorrells, ME}, title = {Can genomics deliver climate-change ready crops?.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {45}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {205-211}, pmid = {29685733}, issn = {1879-0356}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*genetics ; Genome, Plant/genetics ; Genomics/*methods ; *Plant Breeding ; Quantitative Trait Loci/genetics ; }, abstract = {Development of climate resilient crops with accelerating genetic gains in crops will require integration of different disciplines/technologies, to see the impact in the farmer's field. In this review, we summarize how we are utilizing our germplasm collections to identify superior alleles/haplotypes through NGS based sequencing approaches and how genomics-enabled technologies together with precise phenotyping are being used in crop breeding. Pre-breeding and genomics-assisted breeding approaches are contributing to the more efficient development of climate-resilient crops. It is anticipated that the integration of several disciplines/technologies will result in the delivery of climate change ready crops in less time.}, }
@article {pmid29685183, year = {2018}, author = {Supple, MA and Bragg, JG and Broadhurst, LM and Nicotra, AB and Byrne, M and Andrew, RL and Widdup, A and Aitken, NC and Borevitz, JO}, title = {Landscape genomic prediction for restoration of a Eucalyptus foundation species under climate change.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {29685183}, issn = {2050-084X}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Australia ; *Biological Variation, Population ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation/*methods ; Eucalyptus/*genetics/*growth &amp; development ; *Genetic Variation ; }, abstract = {As species face rapid environmental change, we can build resilient populations through restoration projects that incorporate predicted future climates into seed sourcing decisions. Eucalyptus melliodora is a foundation species of a critically endangered community in Australia that is a target for restoration. We examined genomic and phenotypic variation to make empirical based recommendations for seed sourcing. We examined isolation by distance and isolation by environment, determining high levels of gene flow extending for 500 km and correlations with climate and soil variables. Growth experiments revealed extensive phenotypic variation both within and among sampling sites, but no site-specific differentiation in phenotypic plasticity. Model predictions suggest that seed can be sourced broadly across the landscape, providing ample diversity for adaptation to environmental change. Application of our landscape genomic model to E. melliodora restoration projects can identify genomic variation suitable for predicted future climates, thereby increasing the long term probability of successful restoration.}, }
@article {pmid29684896, year = {2018}, author = {Campbell, P and Zhang, Y and Yan, F and Lu, Z and Streets, D}, title = {Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part II: Air quality projections and the interplay between emissions and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {238}, number = {}, pages = {918-930}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2018.03.016}, pmid = {29684896}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/analysis/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Dioxide ; Carbon Monoxide ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen Oxides/analysis ; Ozone/analysis ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Sulfur Dioxide ; Transportation ; United States ; Vehicle Emissions/*analysis ; Volatile Organic Compounds/analysis ; Weather ; }, abstract = {In Part II of this work we present the results of the downscaled offline Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) model, included in the "Technology Driver Model" (TDM) approach to future U.S. air quality projections (2046-2050) compared to a current-year period (2001-2005), and the interplay between future emission and climate changes. By 2046-2050, there are widespread decreases in future concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) due mainly to decreasing on-road vehicle (ORV) emissions near urban centers as well as decreases in other transportation modes that include non-road engines (NRE). However, there are widespread increases in daily maximum 8-hr ozone (O3) across the U.S., which are due to enhanced greenhouse gases (GHG) including methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario, and isolated areas of larger reduction in transportation emissions of NOx compared to that of VOCs over regions with VOC-limited O3 chemistry. Other notable future changes are reduced haze and improved visibility, increased primary organic to elemental carbon ratio, decreases in PM2.5 and its species, decreases and increases in dry deposition of SO2 and O3, respectively, and decreases in total nitrogen (TN) deposition. There is a tendency for transportation emission and CH4 changes to dominate the increases in O3, while climate change may either enhance or mitigate these increases in the west or east U.S., respectively. Climate change also decreases PM2.5 in the future. Other variable changes exhibit stronger susceptibility to either emission (e.g., CO, NOx, and TN deposition) or climate changes (e.g., VOC, NH3, SO2, and total sulfate deposition), which also have a strong dependence on season and specific U.S. regions.}, }
@article {pmid29684649, year = {2018}, author = {Tong, MX and Hansen, A and Hanson-Easey, S and Xiang, J and Cameron, S and Liu, Q and Liu, X and Sun, Y and Weinstein, P and Han, GS and Bi, P}, title = {China's capacity of hospitals to deal with infectious diseases in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {206}, number = {}, pages = {60-66}, pmid = {29684649}, issn = {1873-5347}, mesh = {Adult ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; Capacity Building ; China ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*therapy ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Health Care Surveys ; *Hospital Administration ; Humans ; Male ; Personnel, Hospital/*psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Infectious diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in China. The capacity of hospitals to deal with the challenge from emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change is of great importance to population health. This study aimed to explore the capacity of hospitals in China to deal with such challenges.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was utilized to gauge information regarding capacity of hospitals to deal with infectious diseases in the context of climate change among 611 clinical professionals whose roles pertained to infectious disease diagnosis, treatment and management in Anhui Province of China. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression analysis were performed on the data.<br><br>RESULTS: More than 90% of participants believed climate change would have an adverse influence on population health and infectious disease control in China. Most indicated that their hospitals were well prepared for emerging infectious diseases at present, and they considered that logistical support in hospitals (e.g. administrative and maintenance services) should be strengthened for future capacity building. The majority of participants suggested that effective prevention and control measures, more interdisciplinary collaborations, more funding in rural areas for health care, and improved access to facilities enabling online reporting of infectious diseases, were extremely important strategies in building capacity to curb the population health impact of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change in China.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Clinical professionals recognized that climate change will likely increase the transmission of infectious diseases. Although rural health care and hospitals' logistical support need to be improved, most professionals believed their hospitals to be capable of dealing with emerging diseases. They thought that interdisciplinary and cross-regional collaborations, together with necessary resource support (e.g. improved facilities for rural health care) would be important control strategies.}, }
@article {pmid29684041, year = {2018}, author = {Peterson St-Laurent, G and Hagerman, S and Kozak, R and Hoberg, G}, title = {Public perceptions about climate change mitigation in British Columbia's forest sector.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0195999}, pmid = {29684041}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {British Columbia ; Carbon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Forests ; Internet ; *Perception ; Public Opinion ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia. The successful implementation of forest management activities to achieve climate change mitigation in British Columbia will be strongly influenced by public support or opposition. While we now have increasingly clear ideas of the management opportunities associated with forest mitigation and some insight into public support for climate change mitigation in the context of sustainable forest management, very little is known with respect to the levels and basis of public support for potential forest management strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper, by describing the results of a web-based survey, documents levels of public support for the implementation of eight forest carbon mitigation strategies in British Columbia's forest sector, and examines and quantifies the influence of the factors that shape this support. Overall, respondents ascribed a high level of importance to forest carbon mitigation and supported all of the eight proposed strategies, indicating that the British Columbia public is inclined to consider alternative practices in managing forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. That said, we found differences in levels of support for the mitigation strategies. In general, we found greater levels of support for a rehabilitation strategy (e.g. reforestation of unproductive forest land), and to a lesser extent for conservation strategies (e.g. old growth conservation, reduced harvest) over enhanced forest management strategies (e.g. improved harvesting and silvicultural techniques). We also highlighted multiple variables within the British Columbia population that appear to play a role in predicting levels of support for conservation and/or enhanced forest management strategies, including environmental values, risk perception, trust in groups of actors, prioritized objectives of forest management and socio-demographic factors.}, }
@article {pmid29683551, year = {2018}, author = {Xie, YF and Yang, L and Deng, RY and Chen, MH and Luan, XF and Gottardi, E and Zhang, ZX}, title = {Changes in the range of the medicinal herb Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) under climate change.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {771-779}, doi = {10.1111/plb.12836}, pmid = {29683551}, issn = {1438-8677}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Eriocaulaceae/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Plants, Medicinal/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) is one of the most common and least expensive herbal medicines for eye disease. This species is facing potential threats from climate change. Insufficient biogeographic knowledge of this plant species can hinder its effective management for long-term population survival. We integrated ecological niche modelling (Biomod2) with 70 records of E. buergerianum and eight environmental variables to estimate changes in distribution over time. A core area Zonation algorithm was introduced to identify conservation priority areas. Our results indicate that the range of E. buergerianum will likely decrease in the future: the overall range change on average is -44.36 ± 21.56% (-3.70% to -77.73%); values of range loss and range gain are 45.79 ± 20.30% (9.29-78.19%) and 1.43 ± 1.53% (0.18-5.59%), respectively. According to conservation priority analysis, the mandatory reserve (top 5%), negotiable reserve (0.95-0.9) and partial reserve (0.9-0.8) areas are 19,799, 19,799 and 39,597 km[2] , respectively. The areas identified as conservation priority are located in the southeast, especially in northern Taiwan and the Wuyi Mountains. Based on these results, we suggest a re-evaluation of the threatened status of this species, with a potential upgrade to the vulnerable (VU) category. To overcome the adverse conditions faced by populations of E. buergerianum in China, we propose a multi-faceted conservation strategy involving more complete resource assessment, a monitoring system, medical research focused on revealing medicinal components or substitutes, and a regional development plan that considers both wildlife and socio-economic issues.}, }
@article {pmid29681687, year = {2018}, author = {Trisurat, Y and Aekakkararungroj, A and Ma, HO and Johnston, JM}, title = {Basin-wide Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Mekong Basin.}, journal = {Ecological research}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {73-86}, pmid = {29681687}, issn = {0912-3814}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; EPA999999//Intramural EPA/ ; }, abstract = {Water resources support more than 60 million people in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) and are important for food security-especially rice production-and economic security. This study aims to quantify water yield under near- and long-term climate scenarios and assess the potential impacts on rice cultivation. The InVEST model (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) forecasted water yield, and land evaluation was used to delineate suitability classes. Pattern-downscaled climate data were specially generated for the LMB. Predicted annual water yields for 2030 and 2060, derived from a drier overall scenario in combination with medium and high greenhouse gas emissions, indicated a reduction of 9-24% from baseline (average 1986-2005) runoff. In contrast, increased seasonality and wetter rainfall scenarios increased annual runoff by 6-26%. Extreme drought decreased suitability of transplanted rice cultivation by 3%, and rice production would be reduced by 4.2 and 4%, with and without irrigation projects, relative to baseline. Greatest rice reduction was predicted for Thailand, followed by Lao PDR and Cambodia, and was stable for Vietnam. Rice production in the LMB appears sufficient to feed the LMB population in 2030, while rice production in Lao PDR and Cambodia are not expected to be sufficient for domestic consumption, largely due to steep topography and sandy soils as well as drought. Four adaptation measures to minimize climate impacts (i.e., irrigation, changing the planting calendar, new rice varieties, and alternative crops) are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid29681548, year = {2018}, author = {Lerner, BH}, title = {Climate Change?: The Environment, Physicians, and Historians.}, journal = {Bulletin of the history of medicine}, volume = {92}, number = {1}, pages = {46-49}, doi = {10.1353/bhm.2018.0001}, pmid = {29681548}, issn = {1086-3176}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; *Physicians ; }, }
@article {pmid29680763, year = {2018}, author = {Sishodia, RP and Shukla, S and Wani, SP and Graham, WD and Jones, JW}, title = {Future irrigation expansion outweigh groundwater recharge gains from climate change in semi-arid India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {725-740}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.130}, pmid = {29680763}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Simultaneous effects of future climate and irrigation intensification on surface and groundwater systems are not well understood. Efforts are needed to understand the future groundwater availability and associated surface flows under business-as-usual management to formulate policy changes to improve water sustainability. We combine measurements with integrated modeling (MIKE SHE/MIKE11) to evaluate the effects of future climate (2040-2069), with and without irrigation expansion, on water levels and flows in an agricultural watershed in low-storage crystalline aquifer region of south India. Demand and supply management changes, including improved efficiency of irrigation water as well as energy uses, were evaluated. Increased future rainfall (7-43%, from 5 Global Climate Models) with no further expansion of irrigation wells increased the groundwater recharge (10-55%); however, most of the recharge moved out of watershed as increased baseflow (17-154%) with a small increase in net recharge (+0.2mm/year). When increased rainfall was considered with projected increase in irrigation withdrawals, both hydrologic extremes of well drying and flooding were predicted. A 100-year flow event was predicted to be a 5-year event in the future. If irrigation expansion follows the historical trends, earlier and more frequent well drying, a source of farmers' distress in India, was predicted to worsen in the future despite the recharge gains from increased rainfall. Storage and use of excess flows, improved irrigation efficiency with flood to drip conversion in 25% of irrigated area, and reduced energy subsidy (free electricity for 3.5h compared to 7h/day; $1 billion savings) provided sufficient water savings to support future expansion in irrigated areas while mitigating well drying as well as flooding. Reductions in energy subsidy to fund the implementation of economically desirable (high benefit-cost ratio) demand (drip irrigation) and supply (water capture and storage) management was recommended to achieve a sustainable food-water-energy nexus in semi-arid regions.}, }
@article {pmid29680392, year = {2018}, author = {Heffernan, C}, title = {Climate change and multiple emerging infectious diseases.}, journal = {Veterinary journal (London, England : 1997)}, volume = {234}, number = {}, pages = {43-47}, pmid = {29680392}, issn = {1532-2971}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Disease Outbreaks/*veterinary ; }, }
@article {pmid29677994, year = {2018}, author = {Barteit, S and Sié, A and Yé, M and Depoux, A and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Climate Change and Health as Massive Open Online Courses.}, journal = {Studies in health technology and informatics}, volume = {247}, number = {}, pages = {416-420}, pmid = {29677994}, issn = {1879-8365}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Education, Distance ; Humans ; *Internet ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {To teach the basics of climate change and health - such as the nature of health impacts, best practices in adoption strategies and promotion in health co-benefits, mitigation and adaptation strategies - we have developed three massive open online courses (MOOCs). We analysed the three MOOCs with regards to different factors such as course content, student motivation, instructor behaviour, co-learner effects, design and implementation effects. We conducted online surveys for all three MOOCs based on the research model of Hone et al., extended with regards to student's motivation and course outcomes. In total, we evaluated 6898 students, of which 101 students took part in the online survey. We found differences in completion rates and country of origin for the three MOOCs. The francophone MOOC was found to have a high number of participants from lower-income- and low-and-middle-income countries. The majority of participants were aged between 22 and 40 years of age and had mainly a graduate educational background. The primary motivation to join the MOOC was the knowledge and skills gained as a result of taking the course. The three MOOCs on climate change and health had a reach of almost 7000 students worldwide, as compared to the scope of a face-to-face course on the same topic of 30 students, including students from resource-low environments that are already vulnerable to current changes in climate. The evaluation of the MOOCs outlined the current impact. However, further research has to be conducted to be able to get insights into the impact over time.}, }
@article {pmid29677670, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, Z and Chang, J and Xu, CY and Zhou, Y and Wu, Y and Chen, X and Jiang, S and Duan, Z}, title = {The response of lake area and vegetation cover variations to climate change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the past 30years.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {443-451}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.113}, pmid = {29677670}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Lakes and vegetation are important factors of the Earth's hydrological cycle and can be called an "indicator" of climate change. In this study, long-term changes of lakes' area and vegetation coverage in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and their relations to the climate change were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall method during the past 30years. Results showed that: 1) the lakes' area of the QTP increased significantly during the past 30years as a whole, and the increasing rates have been dramatically sped up since the year of 2000. Among them, the area of Ayakekumu Lake has the fastest growing rate of 51.35%, which increased from 618km[2] in the 1980s to 983km[2] in the 2010s; 2) overall, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) increased in the QTP during the past 30years. Above 79% of the area in the QTP showed increasing trend of NDVI before the year of 2000; 3) the air temperature increased significantly, the precipitation increased slightly, and the pan evaporation decreased significantly during the past 30years. The lake area and vegetation coverage changes might be related to the climate change. The shifts in the temporal climate trend occurred around the year 2000 had led the lake area and vegetation coverage increasing. This study is of importance in further understanding the environmental changes under global warming over the QTP.}, }
@article {pmid29677488, year = {2018}, author = {Gottesman, S}, title = {Chilled in Translation: Adapting to Bacterial Climate Change.}, journal = {Molecular cell}, volume = {70}, number = {2}, pages = {193-194}, doi = {10.1016/j.molcel.2018.04.003}, pmid = {29677488}, issn = {1097-4164}, mesh = {Bacterial Proteins ; Climate Change ; Cold-Shock Response ; Escherichia coli/*genetics ; *RNA, Messenger ; }, abstract = {Cold-shocked bacteria transiently shut down protein translation, but the mechanisms whereby they adaptively restore translation were incompletely understood. Zhang et al. (2018) demonstrate a global increase in mRNA structure after cold shock and that, as structured RNA decreases, translation returns, dependent upon ribonuclease RNase R and cold shock protein CspA and its homologs.}, }
@article {pmid29677024, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {How Can Climate Change Impact the Health of Workers? Part 1: Increased Ambient Temperature.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {60}, number = {6}, pages = {e288-e289}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001342}, pmid = {29677024}, issn = {1536-5948}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Heat Stress Disorders/*etiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; *Occupational Health ; }, }
@article {pmid29677022, year = {2018}, author = {Green-McKenzie, J and Pensa, MA}, title = {A Series of JOEM Forum Articles Discussing the Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Workplace and Worker Health.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {60}, number = {6}, pages = {e287}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001349}, pmid = {29677022}, issn = {1536-5948}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Occupational Health ; }, }
@article {pmid29676643, year = {2018}, author = {Balmes, JR}, title = {Climate Change and Implications for Prevention. California's Efforts to Provide Leadership.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {15}, number = {Suppl 2}, pages = {S114-S117}, doi = {10.1513/AnnalsATS.201706-476MG}, pmid = {29676643}, issn = {2325-6621}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; California ; *Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Leadership ; Particulate Matter ; Policy ; }, abstract = {The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and the temperature of the earth's surface have been rising in parallel for decades, with the former recently reaching 400 parts per million, consistent with a 1.5°C increase in global warming. Climate change models predict that a "business as usual" approach, that is, no effort to control CO2 emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, will result in a more than 2°C increase in annual average surface temperature by approximately 2034. With atmospheric warming comes increased air pollution. The concept of a "climate gap" in air quality control captures the decreased effectiveness of regulatory policies to reduce pollution with a hotter climate. Sources of greenhouse gases and climate-forcing aerosols ("black carbon") are the same sources of air pollutants that harm health. California has adopted robust climate change mitigation policies that are also designed to achieve public health cobenefits by improving air quality. These policies include advanced clean car standards, renewable energy, a sustainable communities strategy to limit suburban sprawl, a low carbon fuel standard, and energy efficiency. A market-based mechanism to put a price on CO2 emissions is the cap-and-trade program that allows capped facilities to trade state-issued greenhouse gas emissions allowances. The "cap" limits total greenhouse gas emissions from all covered sources, and declines over time to progressively reduce emissions. An alternative approach is a carbon tax. California's leadership on air quality and climate change mitigation is increasingly important, given the efforts to slow or even reverse implementation of such policies at the U.S. national level.}, }
@article {pmid29673035, year = {2018}, author = {Black, DA and O'Loughlin, K and Wilson, LA}, title = {Climate change and the health of older people in Australia: A scoping review on the role of mobile applications (apps) in ameliorating impact.}, journal = {Australasian journal on ageing}, volume = {37}, number = {2}, pages = {99-106}, doi = {10.1111/ajag.12522}, pmid = {29673035}, issn = {1741-6612}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Exercise ; Female ; Health Status ; *Healthy Aging ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Mobile Applications ; Quality of Life ; *Smartphone ; Telemedicine/*instrumentation ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Due to the impact of climate change, mobile applications (apps) providing information about the external environment have the potential to improve the health of older people. The purpose of this research was to undertake a scoping review of the evidence on the usability, feasibility and effectiveness of mobile apps to encourage access to activities outside the home in older people.<br><br>METHODS: A search of databases was undertaken with relevant keywords. Selected manuscripts were judged for relevance to the inclusion criteria and assessed for quality.<br><br>RESULTS: Very few published studies examined mobile apps specifically designed to prevent, or to treat, chronic disease in ageing populations, and fewer had rigorous designs. No study addressed accessing the external environment in the context of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that there is a gap in the evidence about the mobile apps designed for healthy ageing and, more specifically, to improve access to the external environment.}, }
@article {pmid29670282, year = {2018}, author = {Hughes, TP and Kerry, JT and Baird, AH and Connolly, SR and Dietzel, A and Eakin, CM and Heron, SF and Hoey, AS and Hoogenboom, MO and Liu, G and McWilliam, MJ and Pears, RJ and Pratchett, MS and Skirving, WJ and Stella, JS and Torda, G}, title = {Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {556}, number = {7702}, pages = {492-496}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0041-2}, pmid = {29670282}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/classification/*growth &amp; development ; Australia ; *Coral Reefs ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Global warming is rapidly emerging as a universal threat to ecological integrity and function, highlighting the urgent need for a better understanding of the impact of heat exposure on the resilience of ecosystems and the people who depend on them [1] . Here we show that in the aftermath of the record-breaking marine heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 [2] , corals began to die immediately on reefs where the accumulated heat exposure exceeded a critical threshold of degree heating weeks, which was 3-4 °C-weeks. After eight months, an exposure of 6 °C-weeks or more drove an unprecedented, regional-scale shift in the composition of coral assemblages, reflecting markedly divergent responses to heat stress by different taxa. Fast-growing staghorn and tabular corals suffered a catastrophic die-off, transforming the three-dimensionality and ecological functioning of 29% of the 3,863 reefs comprising the world's largest coral reef system. Our study bridges the gap between the theory and practice of assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, under the emerging framework for the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems [3] , by rigorously defining both the initial and collapsed states, identifying the major driver of change, and establishing quantitative collapse thresholds. The increasing prevalence of post-bleaching mass mortality of corals represents a radical shift in the disturbance regimes of tropical reefs, both adding to and far exceeding the influence of recurrent cyclones and other local pulse events, presenting a fundamental challenge to the long-term future of these iconic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid29670149, year = {2018}, author = {Haworth, M and Belcher, CM and Killi, D and Dewhirst, RA and Materassi, A and Raschi, A and Centritto, M}, title = {Impaired photosynthesis and increased leaf construction costs may induce floral stress during episodes of global warming over macroevolutionary timescales.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {6206}, pmid = {29670149}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Global warming events have coincided with turnover of plant species at intervals in Earth history. As mean global temperatures rise, the number, frequency and duration of heat-waves will increase. Ginkgo biloba was grown under controlled climatic conditions at two different day/night temperature regimes (25/20 °C and 35/30 °C) to investigate the impact of heat stress. Photosynthetic CO2-uptake and electron transport were reduced at the higher temperature, while rates of respiration were greater; suggesting that the carbon balance of the leaves was adversely affected. Stomatal conductance and the potential for evaporative cooling of the leaves was reduced at the higher temperature. Furthermore, the capacity of the leaves to dissipate excess energy was also reduced at 35/30 °C, indicating that photo-protective mechanisms were no longer functioning effectively. Leaf economics were adversely affected by heat stress, exhibiting an increase in leaf mass per area and leaf construction costs. This may be consistent with the selective pressures experienced by fossil Ginkgoales during intervals of global warming such as the Triassic - Jurassic boundary or Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. The physiological and morphological responses of the G. biloba leaves were closely interrelated; these relationships may be used to infer the leaf economics and photosynthetic/stress physiology of fossil plants.}, }
@article {pmid29670057, year = {2018}, author = {Banwell, N and Rutherford, S and Mackey, B and Chu, C}, title = {Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {29670057}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disasters/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links.}, }
@article {pmid29666660, year = {2018}, author = {Sulistyawati, S and Mulasari, SA and Sukesi, TW}, title = {Assessment of Knowledge regarding Climate Change and Health among Adolescents in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2018}, number = {}, pages = {9716831}, pmid = {29666660}, issn = {1687-9813}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Indonesia ; *Perception ; Psychology, Adolescent/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {This research was aimed at providing evidence on climate change and health knowledge among adolescents. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Yogyakarta city from June to September 2016. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data among 508 adolescents who were in the second grade of a senior high school. This study revealed that participants had a low and inconsistent understanding regarding climate change and its impact on health. They reported that they prefer to get climate change information via talking with family. In summary, adolescent knowledge regarding climate change and health needs to improve with proper content and appropriate media.}, }
@article {pmid29666319, year = {2018}, author = {Liu, H and Mi, Z and Lin, L and Wang, Y and Zhang, Z and Zhang, F and Wang, H and Liu, L and Zhu, B and Cao, G and Zhao, X and Sanders, NJ and Classen, AT and Reich, PB and He, JS}, title = {Shifting plant species composition in response to climate change stabilizes grassland primary production.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {16}, pages = {4051-4056}, pmid = {29666319}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Humidity ; Longitudinal Studies ; Observational Studies as Topic ; *Plant Dispersal ; Plant Roots/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Poaceae/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Tibet ; *Tundra ; }, abstract = {The structure and function of alpine grassland ecosystems, including their extensive soil carbon stocks, are largely shaped by temperature. The Tibetan Plateau in particular has experienced significant warming over the past 50 y, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the future. Such climate change will likely alter plant species composition and net primary production (NPP). Here we combined 32 y of observations and monitoring with a manipulative experiment of temperature and precipitation to explore the effects of changing climate on plant community structure and ecosystem function. First, long-term climate warming from 1983 to 2014, which occurred without systematic changes in precipitation, led to higher grass abundance and lower sedge abundance, but did not affect aboveground NPP. Second, an experimental warming experiment conducted over 4 y had no effects on any aspect of NPP, whereas drought manipulation (reducing precipitation by 50%), shifted NPP allocation belowground without affecting total NPP. Third, both experimental warming and drought treatments, supported by a meta-analysis at nine sites across the plateau, increased grass abundance at the expense of biomass of sedges and forbs. This shift in functional group composition led to deeper root systems, which may have enabled plant communities to acquire more water and thus stabilize ecosystem primary production even with a changing climate. Overall, our study demonstrates that shifting plant species composition in response to climate change may have stabilized primary production in this high-elevation ecosystem, but it also caused a shift from aboveground to belowground productivity.}, }
@article {pmid29666313, year = {2018}, author = {Fang, J and Yu, G and Liu, L and Hu, S and Chapin, FS}, title = {Climate change, human impacts, and carbon sequestration in China.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {16}, pages = {4015-4020}, pmid = {29666313}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics/methods ; Agrochemicals/toxicity ; Carbon/analysis ; *Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollution/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Plant Dispersal ; }, }
@article {pmid29665567, year = {2018}, author = {Kabir, SMS}, title = {Psychological health challenges of the hill-tracts region for climate change in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Asian journal of psychiatry}, volume = {34}, number = {}, pages = {74-77}, doi = {10.1016/j.ajp.2018.04.001}, pmid = {29665567}, issn = {1876-2026}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Bangladesh ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Mental Disorders/*etiology ; Middle Aged ; Qualitative Research ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the deleterious effects of climate change on psychological health of the Hill-Tracts and government to deal with these adverse psychological health impacts. Although knowledge is still limited about the connections between climate change and psychological health, the evidence is indicating that impacts can be felt at both the individual and community levels, with psychological health outcomes ranging from psychological distress, depression, and anxiety, to increased addictions and suicide rates. Drawing from 125 in-depth interviews conducted between January 2015 and October 2016 with community members and local and regional health professionals, participants reported that climate change was negatively impacting psychological health and well-being. The results stated that climate change enhanced the possibility of an increased drug, family stress, alcohol use, amplified previous traumas, psychological health stressors, and were implicated in increased potential for suicide ideation of the Hill-Tracts region in Bangladesh. These exploratory findings indicate that climate change is becoming an additional psychological health stressor for Hill-Tracks' dwellers in Bangladesh.}, }
@article {pmid29664961, year = {2018}, author = {Thapa, S and Chitale, V and Rijal, SJ and Bisht, N and Shrestha, BB}, title = {Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0195752}, pmid = {29664961}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Introduced Species ; *Plants ; Satellite Imagery ; }, abstract = {Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively.}, }
@article {pmid29664475, year = {2018}, author = {Harvey, JA and van den Berg, D and Ellers, J and Kampen, R and Crowther, TW and Roessingh, P and Verheggen, B and Nuijten, RJM and Post, E and Lewandowsky, S and Stirling, I and Balgopal, M and Amstrup, SC and Mann, ME}, title = {Corrigendum: Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy.}, journal = {Bioscience}, volume = {68}, number = {4}, pages = {237}, doi = {10.1093/biosci/biy033}, pmid = {29664475}, issn = {0006-3568}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/biosci/bix133.].}, }
@article {pmid29662248, year = {2018}, author = {Harvey, JA and van den Berg, D and Ellers, J and Kampen, R and Crowther, TW and Roessingh, P and Verheggen, B and Nuijten, RJM and Post, E and Lewandowsky, S and Stirling, I and Balgopal, M and Amstrup, SC and Mann, ME}, title = {Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy.}, journal = {Bioscience}, volume = {68}, number = {4}, pages = {281-287}, pmid = {29662248}, issn = {0006-3568}, abstract = {Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a "poster species" for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability. By denying the impacts of AGW on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of AGW, aggravating the consensus gap. To counter misinformation and reduce this gap, scientists should directly engage the public in the media and blogosphere.}, }
@article {pmid29662073, year = {2018}, author = {Zhao, J and Zhan, R and Wang, Y}, title = {Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {6023}, pmid = {29662073}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.}, }
@article {pmid29660728, year = {2018}, author = {Kılıç, E and Puig, R and Zengin, G and Zengin, CA and Fullana-I-Palmer, P}, title = {Corporate carbon footprint for country Climate Change mitigation: A case study of a tannery in Turkey.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {60-69}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.111}, pmid = {29660728}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Industrial Waste/*analysis ; Solid Waste/*analysis ; *Tanning ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {Assessment of carbon emissions and environmental impact of production is indispensable to achieve a sustainable industrial production in Turkey, especially for those companies willing to compete in new international green markets. In this case study, corporate carbon footprint of a representative Turkish tanning company was analyzed. Inventory and impact data are presented to help in the environmental decision-making process. The results indicate that significant environmental impacts were caused during the landfilling of solid wastes as well as the production of the electricity and fuel required in the tannery. Turkish tannery inventory data presented here for the first time will be useful for leather tanning company managers to calculate sustainability key indicators. Improving alternatives at country level were identified (increasing the renewable sources on electricity production and promote energy recovery in landfills) which would be useful not only to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of tanning sector but also of other industries requiring electricity and producing organic wastes. Considering the substantial contribution of industrial processes to the Turkish carbon emissions (15.7%) (TUIK, 2013), work done on those areas would provide a sound improvement in environmental profile of Turkey. The importance to promote a national strategy to reduce GHG emissions in Turkey was discussed here, as well as its relation to corporate carbon footprint assessments. One of the significant points revealed from the case study is the lack of published country specific emission factors for Turkey, which is a fundamental prerequisite to promote corporate carbon footprint assessment within the country.}, }
@article {pmid29660717, year = {2018}, author = {Wagena, MB and Easton, ZM}, title = {Agricultural conservation practices can help mitigate the impact of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {132-143}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.110}, pmid = {29660717}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Agricultural conservation practices (CPs) are commonly implemented to reduce diffuse nutrient pollution. Climate change can complicate the development, implementation, and efficiency of agricultural CPs by altering hydrology, nutrient cycling, and erosion. This research quantifies the impact of climate change on hydrology, nutrient cycling, erosion, and the effectiveness of agricultural CP in the Susquehanna River Basin in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA. We develop, calibrate, and test the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model and select four CPs; buffer strips, strip-cropping, no-till, and tile drainage, to test their effectiveness in reducing climate change impacts on water quality. We force the model with six downscaled global climate models (GCMs) for a historic period (1990-2014) and two future scenario periods (2041-2065 and 2075-2099) and quantify the impact of climate change on hydrology, nitrate-N (NO3-N), total N (TN), dissolved phosphorus (DP), total phosphorus (TP), and sediment export with and without CPs. We also test prioritizing CP installation on the 30% of agricultural lands that generate the most runoff (e.g., critical source areas-CSAs). Compared against the historical baseline and with no CPs, the ensemble model predictions indicate that climate change results in annual increases in flow (4.5±7.3%), surface runoff (3.5±6.1%), sediment export (28.5±18.2%) and TN export (9.5±5.1%), but decreases in NO3-N (12±12.8%), DP (14±11.5), and TP (2.5±7.4%) export. When agricultural CPs are simulated most do not appreciably change the water balance, however, tile drainage and strip-cropping decrease surface runoff, sediment export, and DP/TP, while buffer strips reduce N export. Installing CPs on CSAs results in nearly the same level of performance for most practices and most pollutants. These results suggest that climate change will influence the performance of agricultural CPs and that targeting agricultural CPs to CSAs can provide nearly the same level of water quality effects as more widespread adoption.}, }
@article {pmid29660713, year = {2018}, author = {Dubey, SK and Sharma, D}, title = {Assessment of climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin, India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {635}, number = {}, pages = {10-19}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.343}, pmid = {29660713}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Crop growth models like AquaCrop are useful in understanding the impact of climate change on crop production considering the various projections from global circulation models and regional climate models. The present study aims to assess the climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin i.e., wheat, barley and maize. Banas basin is part of the semi-arid region of Rajasthan state in India. AquaCrop model is used to calculate the yield of all the three crops for a historical period of 30years (1981-2010) and then compared with observed yield data. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values are calculated to assess the model accuracy in prediction of yield. Further, the calibrated model is used to predict the possible impacts of climate change and CO2 concentration on crop yield using CORDEX-SA climate projections of three driving climate models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the future period 2021-2050. RMSE values of simulated yield with respect to observed yield of wheat, barley and maize are 11.99, 16.15 and 19.13, respectively. It is predicted that crop yield of all three crops will increase under the climate change conditions for future period (2021-2050).}, }
@article {pmid29660613, year = {2018}, author = {Chen, X and Li, X and Yuan, X and Zeng, G and Liang, J and Li, X and Xu, W and Luo, Y and Chen, G}, title = {Effects of human activities and climate change on the reduction of visibility in Beijing over the past 36 years.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {116}, number = {}, pages = {92-100}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2018.04.009}, pmid = {29660613}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Beijing ; *Climate Change ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Smog ; }, abstract = {Both climate change and intensive human activities are thought to have contributed to the impairment of atmospheric visibility in Beijing. But the detailed processes involved and relative roles of human activities and climate change have not been quantified. Optical extinction of aerosols, the inverse of meteorological visibility is especially sensitive to fine particles <1.0 μm. These submicron particles are considered more hazardous than larger ones in terms of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Here we used the aerosol optical extinction (inverse of visibility) as the indicator of submicron particles pollution to estimate its inter-annual variability from 1980 to 2015. Our results indicated that optical extinction experienced two different periods: a weakly increasing stage (1980-2005) and a rapidly increasing stage (2005-2015). We attributed the variations of optical extinction to the joint effects of human activities and climate change. Over the past 36 years, human activities played a leading role in the increase of optical extinction, with a positive contribution of 0.077 km[-1]/10 y. While under the effects of climate change, optical extinction firstly decreased by 0.035 km[-1]/10 y until 2005 and then increased by 0.087 km[-1]/10 y. Detailed analysis revealed that the abrupt change (around 2005) of optical extinction resulted from the trend reversals of climate change. We found since 2005 the decreasing trend by 0.58 m·s[-1]/10 y in wind speed, the growing trend at 8.69%/10 y in relative humidity and the declining trend by 2.72 hPa/10 y in atmospheric pressure have caused the rapid increase of optical extinction. In brief, the higher load of fine particles <1.0 μm in Beijing in recent decades could be associated with both human activities and climate change. Particularly after 2005, the adverse climate change aggravated the situation of submicron particles pollution.}, }
@article {pmid29659603, year = {2018}, author = {Lyam, PT and Duque-Lazo, J and Durka, W and Hauenschild, F and Schnitzler, J and Michalak, I and Ogundipe, OT and Muellner-Riehl, AN}, title = {Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0194726}, pmid = {29659603}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Africa, Western ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fabaceae/*genetics ; *Genetic Variation ; Genotype ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Plastids/genetics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to impact species' genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species' ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species' adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29656612, year = {2018}, author = {Mogollón, R and R Calil, PH}, title = {Counterintuitive effects of global warming-induced wind patterns on primary production in the Northern Humboldt Current System.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {7}, pages = {3187-3198}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14171}, pmid = {29656612}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Peru ; *Wind ; }, abstract = {It has been hypothesized that global warming will strengthen upwelling-favorable winds in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) as a consequence of the increase of the land-sea thermal gradient along the Peruvian coast. The effect of strengthened winds in this region is assessed with the use of a coupled physical-biogeochemical model forced with projected and climatological winds. Strengthened winds induce an increase in primary production of 2% per latitudinal degree from 9.5°S to 5°S. In some important coastal upwelling sites primary production is reduced. This is due to a complex balance between nutrient availability, nutrient use efficiency, as well as eddy- and wind-driven factors. Mesoscale activity induces a net offshore transport of inorganic nutrients, thus reducing primary production in the coastal upwelling region. Wind mixing, in general disadvantageous for primary producers, leads to shorter residence times in the southern and central coastal zones. Overall, instead of a proportional enhancement in primary production due to increased winds, the NHCS becomes only 5% more productive (+5 mol C m[-2] year[-1]), 10% less limited by nutrients and 15% less efficient due to eddy-driven effects. It is found that regions with a initial strong nutrient limitation are more efficient in terms of nutrient assimilation which makes them more resilient in face of the acceleration of the upwelling circulation.}, }
@article {pmid29656456, year = {2018}, author = {Yalcin, S and Leroux, SJ}, title = {An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {3849-3861}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14169}, pmid = {29656456}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Extinction, Biological ; Ontario ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Land-cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981-1985 and 2001-2005 are correlated with land-cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land-cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land-cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land-cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction.}, }
@article {pmid29656409, year = {2019}, author = {Goodarzi, M and Abedi-Koupai, J and Heidarpour, M}, title = {Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigation Water Demands and Its Resulting Consequences on Groundwater Using CMIP5 Models.}, journal = {Ground water}, volume = {57}, number = {2}, pages = {259-268}, doi = {10.1111/gwat.12771}, pmid = {29656409}, issn = {1745-6584}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Groundwater ; Models, Theoretical ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {In this study, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements on the regional cropping pattern were evaluated using two climate change scenarios and combinations of 20 GCM models. Different models including CROPWAT, MODFLOW, and statistical models were used to evaluate the climate change impacts. The results showed that in the future period (2017 to 2046) the temperature in all months of the year will increase at all stations. The average annual precipitation decline in Isfahan, Tiran, Flavarjan, and Lenj stations for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are 18.6 and 27.6%, 15.2 and 18%, 22.5 and 31.5%, and 10.5 and 12.1%, respectively. The average increase in the evapotranspiration for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are about 2.5 and 4.1%, respectively. The irrigation water demands increases considerably and for some crops, on average 18%. Among the existing crops in the cropping pattern, barley, cumin, onion, wheat, and forage crops are more sensitive and their water demand will increase significantly. Results indicate that climate change could have a significant impact on water resources consumption. By considering irrigation efficiency in the region, climate change impacts will result in about 35 to 50 million m[3] /year, over-extraction from the aquifer. This additional exploitation causes an extra drop of 0.4 to 0.8 m in groundwater table per year in the aquifer. Therefore, with regard to the critical condition of the aquifer, management and preventive measures to deal with climate change in the future is absolutely necessary.}, }
@article {pmid29655850, year = {2018}, author = {Dutta, SM and Mustafi, SB and Raha, S and Chakraborty, SK}, title = {Biomonitoring role of some cellular markers during heat stress-induced changes in highly representative fresh water mollusc, Bellamya bengalensis: Implication in climate change and biological adaptation.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {157}, number = {}, pages = {482-490}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2018.04.001}, pmid = {29655850}, issn = {1090-2414}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Biological Oxygen Demand Analysis ; Biomarkers/*metabolism ; Catalase/metabolism ; Chemical Phenomena ; Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fresh Water ; Glutathione/metabolism ; Glutathione Peroxidase/metabolism ; Glutathione Reductase/metabolism ; HSP70 Heat-Shock Proteins/genetics/metabolism ; *Hot Temperature ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; India ; Mollusca/*physiology ; Oxidative Stress ; Seasons ; *Stress, Physiological ; Superoxide Dismutase/metabolism ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Owing to increasing concern of global climate-change, temperature rise is of great interest which can be primarily evaluated from the seasonal variations in some organisms. Aquatic environment can be extremely stressful to its inhabitants because most of them are poikilothermous. In the present study, attempt was made to evaluate the biological effects of oxidative-stress and adaptive/antioxidant capacities during temperature variations (36-40 °C for 24hrs to 72hrs) in Bellamya bengalensis both in environmental and laboratory conditions by testing some biomarkers like HSP70, catalase (CAT), superoxide dismutase (SOD), reduced glutathione (GSH) and glutathione reductase (GR). The biomarker potency of the molecules and the anti-oxidative metabolic-network was postulated and extrapolated to find its resemblance to the climate-change associated organismal variations. In a natural and eco-restored environment in the Eastern part of India, 10-20 fold increases in CAT, SOD and HSP70 protein expressions (Western blot results) were noticed in Bellamya paralleling to their increased enzymatic activities (gel zymogram studies) due to the seasonal (summer versus winter) temperature variation. It is evident from the consecutive three years' study that this variation resulted in the unfavorable physico-chemical changes of water quality parameters like dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, alkalinity and consequently decreased the animal density in summer. And that was revived due to their higher reproduction-rate in post rainy/winter season when temperature normalizes resulting in a restoration of favorable environment. In laboratory condition, the reduced GR and increased GPx indicated the oxidative damage as evident by higher tissue MDA level following to higher mortality. Changes in SOD and CAT activities suggest activation of physiological mechanism to scavenge the ROS produced during heat stress. However, when mortality increased at different time points (36 °C - 72 h and 38 °C - 72 h), these enzyme activities also decreased as they failed to save the tissues from ROS. The results suggest that temperature variation does alter the active oxygen metabolism by modulating antioxidant enzyme activities, which can be used as biomarker to detect sub-lethal effects of climate change-associated pollution. The parity in environmental and laboratory experimental results may justify this laboratory experiment as model heat-stress experiment and indicate temperature as a universal stressor which alone or in combination with other water parameters initiates a consistent adapting behavior. The Bellamya bengalensis being the highest faunal representative in its habitat may serve as a good bioindicator species.}, }
@article {pmid29655118, year = {2018}, author = {De Marchi, L and Neto, V and Pretti, C and Figueira, E and Chiellini, F and Morelli, A and Soares, AMVM and Freitas, R}, title = {Effects of multi-walled carbon nanotube materials on Ruditapes philippinarum under climate change: The case of salinity shifts.}, journal = {Aquatic toxicology (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {199}, number = {}, pages = {199-211}, doi = {10.1016/j.aquatox.2018.04.001}, pmid = {29655118}, issn = {1879-1514}, mesh = {Animals ; Antioxidants/metabolism ; Biotransformation/drug effects ; Bivalvia/*drug effects/enzymology ; *Climate Change ; Dynamic Light Scattering ; Energy Metabolism/drug effects ; Glutathione/metabolism ; Glycogen/metabolism ; Lipid Peroxidation/drug effects ; Multivariate Analysis ; Nanotubes, Carbon/*toxicity/ultrastructure ; Neurotoxins/toxicity ; Oxidative Stress/drug effects ; Particle Size ; *Salinity ; Seawater ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity ; }, abstract = {The toxicity of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) is closely related to their physico-chemical characteristics as well as the physico-chemical parameters of the media where CNTs are dispersed. In a climate change scenario, changes in seawater salinity are becoming a topic of concern particularly in estuarine and coastal areas. Nevertheless, to our knowledge no information is available on how salinity shifts may alter the sensitivity (in terms of biochemical responses) of bivalves when exposed to different CNTs. For this reason, a laboratory experiment was performed exposing the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum, one of the most dominant bivalves of the estuarine and coastal lagoon environments, for 28 days to unfunctionalized multi-walled carbon nanotube MWCNTs (Nf-MWCNTs) and carboxylated MWCNTs (f-MWCNTs), maintained at control salinity (28) and low salinity 21. Concentration-dependent toxicity was demonstrated in individuals exposed to both MWCNT materials and under both salinities, generating alterations of energy reserves and metabolism, oxidative status and neurotoxicity compared to non-contaminated clams. Moreover, our results showed greater toxic impacts induced in clams exposed to f-MWCNTs compared to Nf-MWCNTs. In the present study it was also demonstrated how salinity shifts altered the toxicity of both MWCNT materials as well as the sensitivity of R. philippinarum exposed to these contaminates in terms of clam metabolism, oxidative status and neurotoxicity.}, }
@article {pmid29653722, year = {2018}, author = {Schwartz, SA}, title = {War, Climate Change, and Migration.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {172-176}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2018.03.006}, pmid = {29653722}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Emigration and Immigration ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; *Refugees ; United States ; *Warfare ; }, }
@article {pmid29651454, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, F and Romaniello, SJ and Algeo, TJ and Lau, KV and Clapham, ME and Richoz, S and Herrmann, AD and Smith, H and Horacek, M and Anbar, AD}, title = {Multiple episodes of extensive marine anoxia linked to global warming and continental weathering following the latest Permian mass extinction.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {e1602921}, pmid = {29651454}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Explaining the ~5-million-year delay in marine biotic recovery following the latest Permian mass extinction, the largest biotic crisis of the Phanerozoic, is a fundamental challenge for both geological and biological sciences. Ocean redox perturbations may have played a critical role in this delayed recovery. However, the lack of quantitative constraints on the details of Early Triassic oceanic anoxia (for example, time, duration, and extent) leaves the links between oceanic conditions and the delayed biotic recovery ambiguous. We report high-resolution U-isotope (δ[238]U) data from carbonates of the uppermost Permian to lowermost Middle Triassic Zal section (Iran) to characterize the timing and global extent of ocean redox variation during the Early Triassic. Our δ[238]U record reveals multiple negative shifts during the Early Triassic. Isotope mass-balance modeling suggests that the global area of anoxic seafloor expanded substantially in the Early Triassic, peaking during the latest Permian to mid-Griesbachian, the late Griesbachian to mid-Dienerian, the Smithian-Spathian transition, and the Early/Middle Triassic transition. Comparisons of the U-, C-, and Sr-isotope records with a modeled seawater PO4[3-] concentration curve for the Early Triassic suggest that elevated marine productivity and enhanced oceanic stratification were likely the immediate causes of expanded oceanic anoxia. The patterns of redox variation documented by the U-isotope record show a good first-order correspondence to peaks in ammonoid extinctions during the Early Triassic. Our results indicate that multiple oscillations in oceanic anoxia modulated the recovery of marine ecosystems following the latest Permian mass extinction.}, }
@article {pmid29651148, year = {2018}, author = {Sultana, S and Baumgartner, JB and Dominiak, BC and Royer, JE and Beaumont, LJ}, title = {Author Correction: Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for the Queensland fruit fly.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {6118}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-23430-2}, pmid = {29651148}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has been fixed in the paper.}, }
@article {pmid29651147, year = {2018}, author = {You, J and Qin, X and Ranjitkar, S and Lougheed, SC and Wang, M and Zhou, W and Ouyang, D and Zhou, Y and Xu, J and Zhang, W and Wang, Y and Yang, J and Song, Z}, title = {Response to climate change of montane herbaceous plants in the genus Rhodiola predicted by ecological niche modelling.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {5879}, pmid = {29651147}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; *Ecosystem ; Genetics, Population ; Haplotypes/genetics ; *Phylogeography ; Rhodiola/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change profoundly influences species distributions. These effects are evident in poleward latitudinal range shifts for many taxa, and upward altitudinal range shifts for alpine species, that resulted from increased annual global temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 22,000 BP). For the latter, the ultimate consequence of upward shifts may be extinction as species in the highest alpine ecosystems can migrate no further, a phenomenon often characterized as "nowhere to go". To predict responses to climate change of the alpine plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) to estimate the range shifts of 14 Rhodiola species, beginning with the Last Interglacial (ca. 120,000-140,000 BP) through to 2050. Distributions of Rhodiola species appear to be shaped by temperature-related variables. The southeastern QTP, and especially the Hengduan Mountains, were the origin and center of distribution for Rhodiola, and also served as refugia during the LGM. Under future climate scenario in 2050, Rhodiola species might have to migrate upward and northward, but many species would expand their ranges contra the prediction of the "nowhere to go" hypothesis, caused by the appearance of additional potential habitat concomitant with the reduction of permafrost with climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid29644604, year = {2019}, author = {Mas-Pla, J and Menció, A}, title = {Groundwater nitrate pollution and climate change: learnings from a water balance-based analysis of several aquifers in a western Mediterranean region (Catalonia).}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {2184-2202}, pmid = {29644604}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {CGL2014-57215-C4-2-R//MINECO/ ; MPCUdG2016/061//Universitat de Girona/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Groundwater/*chemistry ; Hydrology ; Mediterranean Region ; Nitrates/*analysis ; *Rivers ; Spain ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; *Water Quality ; *Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Climate change will affect the dynamics of the hydrogeological systems and their water resources quality; in particular nitrate, which is herein taken as a paradigmatic pollutant to illustrate the effects of climate change on groundwater quality. Based on climatic predictions of temperature and precipitation for the horizon of 2021 and 2050, as well as on land use distribution, water balances are recalculated for the hydrological basins of distinct aquifer systems in a western Mediterranean region as Catalonia (NE Spain) in order to determine the reduction of available water resources. Besides the fact that climate change will represent a decrease of water availability, we qualitatively discuss the modifications that will result from the future climatic scenarios and their impact on nitrate pollution according to the geological setting of the selected aquifers. Climate effects in groundwater quality are described according to hydrological, environmental, socio-economic, and political concerns. Water reduction stands as a major issue that will control stream-aquifer interactions and subsurface recharge, leading to a general modification of nitrate in groundwater as dilution varies. A nitrate mass balance model provides a gross estimation of potential nitrate evolution in these aquifers, and it points out that the control of the fertilizer load will be crucial to achieve adequate nitrate content in groundwater. Reclaimed wastewater stands as local reliable resource, yet its amount will only satisfy a fraction of the loss of available resources due to climate change. Finally, an integrated management perspective is necessary to avoid unplanned actions from private initiatives that will jeopardize the achievement of sustainable water resources exploitation under distinct hydrological scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid29643497, year = {2018}, author = {Khan, SA}, title = {Curtail climate-change effects using Singapore Index of Cities' Biodiversity.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {556}, number = {7700}, pages = {174}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-04168-3}, pmid = {29643497}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Cities ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Singapore ; }, }
@article {pmid29642815, year = {2018}, author = {Sly, PD and Holt, PG}, title = {Pollution, climate change, and childhood asthma in Australia.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {208}, number = {7}, pages = {297-298}, doi = {10.5694/mja17.01145}, pmid = {29642815}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Asthma ; Australia ; Child ; Climate Change ; Housing ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid29642810, year = {2018}, author = {Madden, DL and McLean, M and Horton, GL}, title = {Preparing medical graduates for the health effects of climate change: an Australasian collaboration.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {208}, number = {7}, pages = {291-292}, doi = {10.5694/mja17.01172}, pmid = {29642810}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Education, Medical/*trends ; Global Health ; Humans ; New Zealand ; *Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid29642807, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, Y and Beggs, PJ}, title = {The &lt;em&gt;Lancet&lt;/em&gt; Countdown down under: tracking progress on health and climate change in Australia.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {208}, number = {7}, pages = {285-286}, doi = {10.5694/mja17.01245}, pmid = {29642807}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Global Health/*trends ; Health Planning ; Health Policy/*trends ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Politics ; Public Health/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid29638230, year = {2018}, author = {Anderson, JG and Clapp, CE}, title = {Coupling free radical catalysis, climate change, and human health.}, journal = {Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP}, volume = {20}, number = {16}, pages = {10569-10587}, doi = {10.1039/c7cp08331a}, pmid = {29638230}, issn = {1463-9084}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Catalysis ; *Climate Change ; Feedback ; *Free Radicals ; Humans ; Methane/chemistry ; Seasons ; Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology ; Stratospheric Ozone/*chemistry ; Temperature ; Water/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {We present the chain of mechanisms linking free radical catalytic loss of stratospheric ozone, specifically over the central United States in summer, to increased climate forcing by CO2 and CH4 from fossil fuel use. This case directly engages detailed knowledge, emerging from in situ aircraft observations over the polar regions in winter, defining the temperature and water vapor dependence of the kinetics of heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine (HCl and ClONO2) to free radical form (ClO). Analysis is placed in the context of irreversible changes to specific subsystems of the climate, most notably coupled feedbacks that link rapid changes in the Arctic with the discovery that convective storms over the central US in summer both suppress temperatures and inject water vapor deep into the stratosphere. This places the lower stratosphere over the US in summer within the same photochemical catalytic domain as the lower stratosphere of the Arctic in winter engaging the risk of amplifying the rate limiting step in the ClO dimer catalytic mechanism by some six orders of magnitude. This transitions the catalytic loss rate of ozone in lower stratosphere over the United States in summer from HOx radical control to ClOx radical control, increasing the overall ozone loss rate by some two orders of magnitude over that of the unperturbed state. Thus we address, through a combination of observations and modeling, the mechanistic foundation defining why stratospheric ozone, vulnerable to increased climate forcing, is one of the most delicate aspects of habitability on the planet.}, }
@article {pmid29637512, year = {2018}, author = {Stewart, AJ}, title = {Psychiatry's Role in Responding to Climate Change.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {327-328}, doi = {10.1007/s40596-018-0909-3}, pmid = {29637512}, issn = {1545-7230}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Psychiatry ; }, }
@article {pmid29637319, year = {2018}, author = {Burke, SEL and Sanson, AV and Van Hoorn, J}, title = {The Psychological Effects of Climate Change on Children.}, journal = {Current psychiatry reports}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {35}, pmid = {29637319}, issn = {1535-1645}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Anxiety/etiology ; Child ; Depression/etiology ; Emotions ; *Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Mental Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Stress, Psychological/*etiology ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We review recent evidence on the psychological effects of climate change on children, covering both direct and indirect impacts, and discuss children's psychological adaptation to climate change.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Both the direct and flow-on effects of climate change place children at risk of mental health consequences including PTSD, depression, anxiety, phobias, sleep disorders, attachment disorders, and substance abuse. These in turn can lead to problems with emotion regulation, cognition, learning, behavior, language development, and academic performance. Together, these create predispositions to adverse adult mental health outcomes. Children also exhibit high levels of concern over climate change. Meaning-focused coping promotes well-being and environmental engagement. Both direct and indirect climate change impacts affect children's psychological well-being. Children in the developing world will suffer the worst impacts. Mental health professionals have important roles in helping mitigate climate change, and researching and implementing approaches to helping children cope with its impacts.}, }
@article {pmid29635859, year = {2018}, author = {Johansson, MU and Frisk, CA and Nemomissa, S and Hylander, K}, title = {Disturbance from traditional fire management in subalpine heathlands increases Afro-alpine plant resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {7}, pages = {2952-2964}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14121}, pmid = {29635859}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Africa ; Altitude ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Fires ; *Plant Development ; Plants/*classification ; }, abstract = {Species are often controlled by biotic factors such as competition at the warm edge of their distribution range. Disturbances at the treeline, disrupting competitive dominance, may thus enable alpine species to utilize lower altitudes. We searched for evidence for range expansion in grazed, fire-managed Ethiopian subalpine Erica heathlands across a 25-year chronosequence. We examined vascular plant composition in 48 plots (5 × 5 m) across an altitudinal range of 3,465-3,711 m.a.s.l. and analyzed how community composition changed in relation to increasing competition over time (using a Shade index based on Erica shrub height and cover) and altitude. Species' habitats and altitudinal ranges were derived from literature. Time since fire explained more variation (r[2] = .41) in species composition than altitude did (r[2] = .32) in an NMDS analysis. Community-weighted altitudinal optima for species in a plot decreased strongly with increasing shade (GLM, Standardized Regression Coefficient SRC = -.41, p = .003), but increased only weakly with altitude (SRC = .26, p = .054). In other words, young stands were dominated by species with higher altitudinal optima than old stands. Forest species richness increased with Log Shade index (SRC = .12, p = .008), but was unaffected by altitude (SRC = -.07, p = .13). However, richness of alpine and heathland species was not highest in plots with lowest Shade index, but displayed a unimodal pattern with an initial increase, followed by a decrease when shading increased (altitude was not significant). Our results indicate that disturbance from the traditional patch burning increases the available habitat for less competitive high-altitude plants and prevents tree line ascent. Therefore, maintaining, but regulating, the traditional land use increases the Afro-alpine flora's resilience to global warming. However, this system is threatened by a new REDD+ program attempting to increase carbon storage via fire suppression. This study highlights the importance of understanding traditional management regimes for biodiversity conservation in cultural landscapes in an era of global change.}, }
@article {pmid29634825, year = {2018}, author = {Wilke, RA and Freeman, JW}, title = {Fracking and Climate Change-Reply.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {319}, number = {14}, pages = {1508-1509}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2018.0228}, pmid = {29634825}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; *Hydraulic Fracking ; }, }
@article {pmid29634822, year = {2018}, author = {Frumkin, H and Patz, J}, title = {Fracking and Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {319}, number = {14}, pages = {1508}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2018.0191}, pmid = {29634822}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; *Hydraulic Fracking ; }, }
@article {pmid29633989, year = {2018}, author = {Leach, TH and Winslow, LA and Acker, FW and Bloomfield, JA and Boylen, CW and Bukaveckas, PA and Charles, DF and Daniels, RA and Driscoll, CT and Eichler, LW and Farrell, JL and Funk, CS and Goodrich, CA and Michelena, TM and Nierzwicki-Bauer, SA and Roy, KM and Shaw, WH and Sutherland, JW and Swinton, MW and Winkler, DA and Rose, KC}, title = {Long-term dataset on aquatic responses to concurrent climate change and recovery from acidification.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {180059}, pmid = {29633989}, issn = {2052-4463}, abstract = {Concurrent regional and global environmental changes are affecting freshwater ecosystems. Decadal-scale data on lake ecosystems that can describe processes affected by these changes are important as multiple stressors often interact to alter the trajectory of key ecological phenomena in complex ways. Due to the practical challenges associated with long-term data collections, the majority of existing long-term data sets focus on only a small number of lakes or few response variables. Here we present physical, chemical, and biological data from 28 lakes in the Adirondack Mountains of northern New York State. These data span the period from 1994-2012 and harmonize multiple open and as-yet unpublished data sources. The dataset creation is reproducible and transparent; R code and all original files used to create the dataset are provided in an appendix. This dataset will be useful for examining ecological change in lakes undergoing multiple stressors.}, }
@article {pmid29632745, year = {2018}, author = {Jones, CA and Daehler, CC}, title = {Herbarium specimens can reveal impacts of climate change on plant phenology; a review of methods and applications.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4576}, pmid = {29632745}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Studies in plant phenology have provided some of the best evidence for large-scale responses to recent climate change. Over the last decade, more than thirty studies have used herbarium specimens to analyze changes in flowering phenology over time, although studies from tropical environments are thus far generally lacking. In this review, we summarize the approaches and applications used to date. Reproductive plant phenology has primarily been analyzed using two summary statistics, the mean flowering day of year and first-flowering day of year, but mean flowering day has proven to be a more robust statistic. Two types of regression models have been applied to test for associations between flowering, temperature and time: flowering day regressed on year and flowering day regressed on temperature. Most studies analyzed the effect of temperature by averaging temperatures from three months prior to the date of flowering. On average, published studies have used 55 herbarium specimens per species to characterize changes in phenology over time, but in many cases fewer specimens were used. Geospatial grid data are increasingly being used for determining average temperatures at herbarium specimen collection locations, allowing testing for finer scale correspondence between phenology and climate. Multiple studies have shown that inferences from herbarium specimen data are comparable to findings from systematically collected field observations. Understanding phenological responses to climate change is a crucial step towards recognizing implications for higher trophic levels and large-scale ecosystem processes. As herbaria are increasingly being digitized worldwide, more data are becoming available for future studies. As temperatures continue to rise globally, herbarium specimens are expected to become an increasingly important resource for analyzing plant responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29630672, year = {2018}, author = {Manchego, CE and Hildebrandt, P and Cueva, J and Espinosa, CI and Stimm, B and Günter, S}, title = {Correction: Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {e0195851}, pmid = {29630672}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190092.].}, }
@article {pmid29626775, year = {2018}, author = {Ali, G}, title = {Climate change and associated spatial heterogeneity of Pakistan: Empirical evidence using multidisciplinary approach.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {634}, number = {}, pages = {95-108}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.170}, pmid = {29626775}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon, which has various implications for the environment and socio-economic conditions of the people. Its effects are deeper in an agrarian economy which is susceptible to the vagaries of nature. Therefore, climate change directly impacts the society in different ways, and society must pay the cost. Focusing on this truth, the main objective of this research was to investigate the empirical changes and spatial heterogeneity in the climate of Pakistan in real terms using time series data. Climate change and variability in Pakistan, over time, were estimated from 1961 to 2014 using all the climate variables for the very first time. Several studies were available on climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation; however, it was difficult to observe exactly how much change occurred in which province and when. A multidisciplinary approach was utilized to estimate the absolute change through a combination of environmental, econometric, and remote sensing methods. Moreover, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to ascertain the extent of variability in climate change and information was digitalized through ground truthing. Results showed that the average temperature of Pakistan increased by 2°C between 1960 and 1987 and 4°C between 1988 and 2014, and R[2] was 0.978. The rate of temperature increased 0.09°C between 1960 and 2014. The mean annual precipitation of Pakistan increased by 478mm, and its R[2] were 0.34-0.64. The mean annual humidity of Pakistan increased by 2.94%, and the rate of humidity has been increased by 0.97% from 1988 to 2014. Notably, Sindh and Balochistan provinces have shown a significant spatial heterogeneity regarding the increase in precipitation. Statistically all variables are significant. This would serve as a baseline information for climate change-related studies in Pakistan and its application in different sectors. This would also serve the plant breeders and policymakers of the country.}, }
@article {pmid29623477, year = {2018}, author = {Modarres, R and Ghadami, M and Naderi, S and Naderi, M}, title = {Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {7}, pages = {1275-1281}, pmid = {29623477}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Iran/epidemiology ; Population Health ; Risk ; }, abstract = {Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.}, }
@article {pmid29621957, year = {2018}, author = {Hanna, EG and McIver, LJ}, title = {Climate change: a brief overview of the science and health impacts for Australia.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {208}, number = {7}, pages = {311-315}, doi = {10.5694/mja17.00640}, pmid = {29621957}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {The scientific relationship between atmospheric CO2 and global temperatures has been understood for over a century. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 due to burning of fossil fuels have contributed to 75% of the observed 1°C rise in global temperatures since the start of the industrial era (about 1750). Global warming is associated with intensifying climatic extremes and disruption to human society and human health. Mitigation is vital for human health as continued current emission rates are likely to lead to 4°C of warming by 2100. Further escalation of Australia's hot and erratic climate will lead to more extreme climate-related disasters of heatwaves, droughts, fires and storms, as well as shifts in disease burdens.}, }
@article {pmid29618754, year = {2018}, author = {Morin, X and Fahse, L and Jactel, H and Scherer-Lorenzen, M and García-Valdés, R and Bugmann, H}, title = {Long-term response of forest productivity to climate change is mostly driven by change in tree species composition.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {5627}, pmid = {29618754}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Models, Biological ; Trees/*classification/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects ecosystem functioning directly through impacts on plant physiology, resulting in changes of global productivity. However, climate change has also an indirect impact on ecosystems, through changes in the composition and diversity of plant communities. The relative importance of these direct and indirect effects has not been evaluated within a same generic approach yet. Here we took advantage of a novel approach for disentangling these two effects in European temperate forests across a large climatic gradient, through a large simulation-based study using a forest succession model. We first showed that if productivity positively correlates with realized tree species richness under a changed climate, indirect effects appear pivotal to understand the magnitude of climate change impacts on forest productivity. We further detailed how warmer and drier conditions may affect the diversity-productivity relationships (DPRs) of temperate forests in the long term, mostly through effects on species recruitment, ultimately enhancing or preventing complementarity in resource use. Furthermore, losing key species reduced the strength of DPRs more severely in environments that are becoming climatically harsher. By disentangling direct and indirect effects of climate change on ecosystem functioning, these findings explain why high-diversity forests are expected to be more resilient to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29618170, year = {2018}, author = {Faldyn, MJ and Hunter, MD and Elderd, BD}, title = {Climate change and an invasive, tropical milkweed: an ecological trap for monarch butterflies.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {5}, pages = {1031-1038}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2198}, pmid = {29618170}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; *Asclepias ; *Butterflies ; Cardenolides ; Climate Change ; Ecology ; }, abstract = {While it is well established that climate change affects species distributions and abundances, the impacts of climate change on species interactions has not been extensively studied. This is particularly important for specialists whose interactions are tightly linked, such as between the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) and the plant genus Asclepias, on which it depends. We used open-top chambers (OTCs) to increase temperatures in experimental plots and placed either nonnative Asclepias curassavica or native A. incarnata in each plot along with monarch larvae. We found, under current climatic conditions, adult monarchs had higher survival and mass when feeding on A. curassavica. However, under future conditions, monarchs fared much worse on A. curassavica. The decrease in adult survival and mass was associated with increasing cardenolide concentrations under warmer temperatures. Increased temperatures alone reduced monarch forewing length. Cardenolide concentrations in A. curassavica may have transitioned from beneficial to detrimental as temperature increased. Thus, the increasing cardenolide concentrations may have pushed the larvae over a tipping point into an ecological trap; whereby past environmental cues associated with increased fitness give misleading information. Given the ubiquity of specialist plant-herbivore interactions, the potential for such ecological traps to emerge as temperatures increase may have far-reaching consequences.}, }
@article {pmid29617317, year = {2018}, author = {Workman, A and Blashki, G and Bowen, KJ and Karoly, DJ and Wiseman, J}, title = {The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {29617317}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; Delivery of Health Care/*economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Health Policy/*economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; *Politics ; }, abstract = {A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science&amp;ndash;policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda.}, }
@article {pmid29615671, year = {2018}, author = {Boch, CA and Micheli, F and AlNajjar, M and Monismith, SG and Beers, JM and Bonilla, JC and Espinoza, AM and Vazquez-Vera, L and Woodson, CB}, title = {Local oceanographic variability influences the performance of juvenile abalone under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {5501}, pmid = {29615671}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Gastropoda/metabolism/physiology ; *Oceanography ; Oxygen/metabolism ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is causing warming, deoxygenation, and acidification of the global ocean. However, manifestation of climate change may vary at local scales due to oceanographic conditions. Variation in stressors, such as high temperature and low oxygen, at local scales may lead to variable biological responses and spatial refuges from climate impacts. We conducted outplant experiments at two locations separated by ~2.5 km and two sites at each location separated by ~200 m in the nearshore of Isla Natividad, Mexico to assess how local ocean conditions (warming and hypoxia) may affect juvenile abalone performance. Here, we show that abalone growth and mortality mapped to variability in stress exposure across sites and locations. These insights indicate that management decisions aimed at maintaining and recovering valuable marine species in the face of climate change need to be informed by local variability in environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid29615236, year = {2018}, author = {Emiliano, M and Valenzano, B and Surico, G and Piscitelli, P and Missoni, E}, title = {Decarbonisation, climate change, and human rights: a road map for the future of Puglia region.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {e60-e61}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30005-6}, pmid = {29615236}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; Italy ; }, }
@article {pmid29615235, year = {2018}, author = {Schütte, S and Gemenne, F and Zaman, M and Flahault, A and Depoux, A}, title = {Connecting planetary health, climate change, and migration.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {e58-e59}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30004-4}, pmid = {29615235}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Health Impact Assessment/*methods ; *Human Migration ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid29615207, year = {2018}, author = {Cloos, P and Ridde, V}, title = {Research on climate change, health inequities, and migration in the Caribbean.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {e4-e5}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30176-6}, pmid = {29615207}, issn = {2542-5196}, mesh = {Caribbean Region ; *Climate Change ; Healthcare Disparities/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid29614613, year = {2018}, author = {Sun, QH and Wang, WT and Wang, YW and Li, TT}, title = {[Estimating and projecting the acute effect of cold spells on excess mortality under climate change in Guangzhou].}, journal = {Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine]}, volume = {52}, number = {4}, pages = {430-435}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2018.04.018}, pmid = {29614613}, issn = {0253-9624}, mesh = {China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Mortality/*trends ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Objective: To estimate future excess mortality attributable to cold spells in Guangzhou, China. Methods: We collected the mortality data and metrological data from 2009-2013 of Guangzhou to calculated the association between cold spell days and non-accidental mortality with GLM model. Then we projected future daily average temperatures (2020-2039 (2020s) , 2050-2069 (2050s) , 2080-2099 (2080s)) with 5 GCMs models and 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to identify cold spell days. The baseline period was the 1980s (1980-1999). Finally, calculated the yearly cold spells related excess death of 1980s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s with average daily death count of non-cold spell days, exposure-response relationship, and yearly number of cold spell days. Results: The average of daily non-accidental mortality in Guangzhou from 2009 to 2013 was 96, and the average of daily average was 22.0 ℃. Cold spell days were associated with 3.3% (95%CI: 0.4%-6.2%) increase in non-accidental mortality. In 1980s, yearly cold spells related deaths were 34 (95%CI: 4-64). In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-10; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-9; and in 2080s, will increase by 1-9 under the RCP4.5 scenario. In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-9; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-6; and in 2080s, will increase by 0-11 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Conclusion: The cold spells related non-accidental deaths in Guangzhou will increase in future under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29614599, year = {2018}, author = {Bi, P}, title = {[Climate change, health impacts in the vulnerable communities and adaptations].}, journal = {Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine]}, volume = {52}, number = {4}, pages = {348-351}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2018.04.004}, pmid = {29614599}, issn = {0253-9624}, }
@article {pmid29614598, year = {2018}, author = {Tong, SL}, title = {[Climate change and population health].}, journal = {Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine]}, volume = {52}, number = {4}, pages = {344-347}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2018.04.003}, pmid = {29614598}, issn = {0253-9624}, }
@article {pmid29610383, year = {2018}, author = {Betts, RA and Alfieri, L and Bradshaw, C and Caesar, J and Feyen, L and Friedlingstein, P and Gohar, L and Koutroulis, A and Lewis, K and Morfopoulos, C and Papadimitriou, L and Richardson, KJ and Tsanis, I and Wyser, K}, title = {Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {376}, number = {2119}, pages = {}, pmid = {29610383}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.}, }
@article {pmid29608770, year = {2018}, author = {Harvey, JA and van den Berg, D and Ellers, J and Kampen, R and Crowther, TW and Roessingh, P and Verheggen, B and Nuijten, RJM and Post, E and Lewandowsky, S and Stirling, I and Balgopal, M and Amstrup, SC and Mann, ME}, title = {Corrigendum: Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy.}, journal = {Neurosurgery}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/bioscience/biy033}, pmid = {29608770}, issn = {1524-4040}, }
@article {pmid29607034, year = {2018}, author = {Kakouei, K and Kiesel, J and Domisch, S and Irving, KS and Jähnig, SC and Kail, J}, title = {Projected effects of Climate-change-induced flow alterations on stream macroinvertebrate abundances.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {3393-3409}, pmid = {29607034}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global change has the potential to affect river flow conditions which are fundamental determinants of physical habitats. Predictions of the effects of flow alterations on aquatic biota have mostly been assessed based on species ecological traits (e.g., current preferences), which are difficult to link to quantitative discharge data. Alternatively, we used empirically derived predictive relationships for species' response to flow to assess the effect of flow alterations due to climate change in two contrasting central European river catchments. Predictive relationships were set up for 294 individual species based on (1) abundance data from 223 sampling sites in the Kinzig lower-mountainous catchment and 67 sites in the Treene lowland catchment, and (2) flow conditions at these sites described by five flow metrics quantifying the duration, frequency, magnitude, timing and rate of flow events using present-day gauging data. Species' abundances were predicted for three periods: (1) baseline (1998-2017), (2) horizon 2050 (2046-2065) and (3) horizon 2090 (2080-2099) based on these empirical relationships and using high-resolution modeled discharge data for the present and future climate conditions. We compared the differences in predicted abundances among periods for individual species at each site, where the percent change served as a proxy to assess the potential species responses to flow alterations. Climate change was predicted to most strongly affect the low-flow conditions, leading to decreased abundances of species up to -42%. Finally combining the response of all species over all metrics indicated increasing overall species assemblage responses in 98% of the studied river reaches in both projected horizons and were significantly larger in the lower-mountainous Kinzig compared to the lowland Treene catchment. Such quantitative analyses of freshwater taxa responses to flow alterations provide valuable tools for predicting potential climate-change impacts on species abundances and can be applied to any stressor, species, or region.}, }
@article {pmid29605830, year = {2018}, author = {Ranabhat, S and Ghate, R and Bhatta, LD and Agrawal, NK and Tankha, S}, title = {Policy Coherence and Interplay between Climate Change Adaptation Policies and the Forestry Sector in Nepal.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {61}, number = {6}, pages = {968-980}, pmid = {29605830}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Forestry/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Government Regulation ; Humans ; Nepal ; *Policy Making ; }, abstract = {Least Developed Countries are likely to be hit the hardest by climate change and need focused efforts towards adaptation. Nepal recognizes that it needs to integrate climate change adaptation into various policies, but limited understanding of how to make these policies coherent is among the factors that hinder effective adaptation action. This can lead to wasted resources and lost opportunities. This paper applies concepts from policy coherence for development frameworks and policy content analysis to examine coherence in Nepal's climate and forest policies-and discusses the factors hindering effective implementation. The policies are analyzed at the horizontal/external level at three layers-motivation, measures, and planned implementation process. The paper finds that policies are more consistent on motivation level and adaptation measures, but are less coherent on implementation. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is more explicit in identifying institutions, organizations, roles and responsibilities, resource allocation (financial), and a monitoring and evaluation plan for climate change adaptation while other policies such as Climate Change Policy 2011, National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan 2014-2020, Forest Policy 2015, and Forest Sector Strategy 2016 have critical gaps in this area. This paper conclude that formulation of a policy, articulating targets, and mobilizing financial resources are in themselves not sufficient to effectively address climate change adaptation. Policy-based legislation is required, together with development of a supportive collaborative multi-stakeholder approach at different levels of governance, backed up by effective, collaborative monitoring and enforcement.}, }
@article {pmid29603775, year = {2019}, author = {Mousavi-Derazmahalleh, M and Bayer, PE and Hane, JK and Valliyodan, B and Nguyen, HT and Nelson, MN and Erskine, W and Varshney, RK and Papa, R and Edwards, D}, title = {Adapting legume crops to climate change using genomic approaches.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {42}, number = {1}, pages = {6-19}, pmid = {29603775}, issn = {1365-3040}, support = {/GATES/Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; Fabaceae/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; Genes, Plant/genetics/physiology ; *Genomics/methods ; Plant Breeding/methods ; }, abstract = {Our agricultural system and hence food security is threatened by combination of events, such as increasing population, the impacts of climate change, and the need to a more sustainable development. Evolutionary adaptation may help some species to overcome environmental changes through new selection pressures driven by climate change. However, success of evolutionary adaptation is dependent on various factors, one of which is the extent of genetic variation available within species. Genomic approaches provide an exceptional opportunity to identify genetic variation that can be employed in crop improvement programs. In this review, we illustrate some of the routinely used genomics-based methods as well as recent breakthroughs, which facilitate assessment of genetic variation and discovery of adaptive genes in legumes. Although additional information is needed, the current utility of selection tools indicate a robust ability to utilize existing variation among legumes to address the challenges of climate uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid29603469, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, B and Shuman, J and Shugart, HH and Lerdau, MT}, title = {Biodiversity matters in feedbacks between climate change and air quality: a study using an individual-based model.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {28}, number = {5}, pages = {1223-1231}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1721}, pmid = {29603469}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Feedback ; *Models, Biological ; Tennessee ; Trees ; Volatile Organic Compounds/analysis ; }, abstract = {Air quality is closely associated with climate change via the biosphere because plants release large quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOC) that mediate both gaseous pollutants and aerosol dynamics. Earlier studies, which considered only leaf physiology and simply scale up from leaf-level enhancements of emissions, suggest that climate warming enhances whole forest VOC emissions, and these increased VOC emissions aggravate ozone pollution and secondary organic aerosol formation. Using an individual-based forest VOC emissions model, UVAFME-VOC, that simulates system-level emissions by explicitly simulating forest community dynamics to the individual tree level, ecological competition among the individuals of differing size and age, and radiative transfer and leaf function through the canopy, we find that climate warming only sometimes stimulates isoprene emissions (the single largest source of non-methane hydrocarbon) in a southeastern U.S. forest. These complex patterns result from the combination of higher temperatures' stimulating emissions at the leaf level but decreasing the abundance of isoprene-emitting taxa at the community level by causing a decline in the abundance of isoprene-emitting species (Quercus spp.). This ecological effect eventually outweighs the physiological one, thus reducing overall emissions. Such reduced emissions have far-reaching implications for the climate-air-quality relationships that have been established on the paradigm of warming-enhancement VOC emissions from vegetation. This local scale modeling study suggests that community ecology rather than only individual physiology should be integrated into future studies of biosphere-climate-chemistry interactions.}, }
@article {pmid29603307, year = {2018}, author = {Carbó, A and Torres, R and Teixidó, N and Usall, J and Medina, A and Magan, N}, title = {Impact of climate change environmental conditions on the resilience of different formulations of the biocontrol agent Candida sake CPA-1 on grapes.}, journal = {Letters in applied microbiology}, volume = {67}, number = {1}, pages = {2-8}, doi = {10.1111/lam.12889}, pmid = {29603307}, issn = {1472-765X}, mesh = {Antibiosis/*physiology ; Biological Control Agents/*pharmacology ; Botrytis/*drug effects ; Candida/*physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Drug Compounding ; Fruit/microbiology ; Hot Temperature ; Rhizopus/*drug effects ; Vitis/*microbiology ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Biocontrol agents have become components of integrated crop protection systems for controlling economically important fungal pathogens. Candida sake CPA-1 is a biocontrol agent of fungal pathogens of fruits, both pre- and post-harvest. While the efficacy of different formulations have been examined previously, few studies have considered the resilience of different formulations under changing climatic conditions of elevated temperature, drought stress and increased atmospheric CO2 . This study examined the effect of (a) temperature × RH × elevated CO2 (400 vs 1000 ppm) on the temporal establishment and viability of two dry and one liquid C. sake CPA-1 formulations on grape berry surfaces; (b) temperature stress (25 vs 35°C); and (c) elevated CO2 levels. Results indicated that temperature, RH and CO2 concentration influenced the establishment and viability of the formulations but there was no significant difference between formulations. For the combined three-component factors, increased temperature (35°C) and lower RH (40%) reduced the viable populations on grapes. The interaction with elevated CO2 improved the establishment of viable populations of the formulations tested. Viable populations greater than Log 4 CFUs per g were recovered from the grape surfaces suggesting that these had conserved resilience for control of Botrytis rot in grapes.<br><br>The interaction between environmental factors that are expected to occur in response to climate change (CC) will have a significant impact on food security and availability. Little information exists on how elevated temperature, drought stress and increased CO2 will have on the efficacy of biocontrol agents. The impact of these factors on the viability of different formulations of the biocontrol yeast Candida sake on the surface of grapes berries was evaluated for the first time. Such knowledge is critical for projecting the efficacy of biocontrol under climate change conditions and to identify formulations that have the necessary resilience to perform under CC conditions.}, }
@article {pmid29599537, year = {2017}, author = {Fell, SC and Carrivick, JL and Brown, LE}, title = {The Multitrophic Effects of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat in Mountain Rivers.}, journal = {Bioscience}, volume = {67}, number = {10}, pages = {897-911}, pmid = {29599537}, issn = {0006-3568}, abstract = {Climate change is driving the thinning and retreat of many glaciers globally. Reductions of ice-melt inputs to mountain rivers are changing their physicochemical characteristics and, in turn, aquatic communities. Glacier-fed rivers can serve as model systems for investigations of climate-change effects on ecosystems because of their strong atmospheric-cryospheric links, high biodiversity of multiple taxonomic groups, and significant conservation interest concerning endemic species. From a synthesis of existing knowledge, we develop a new conceptual understanding of how reducing glacier cover affects organisms spanning multiple trophic groups. Although the response of macroinvertebrates to glacier retreat has been well described, we show that there remains a relative paucity of information for biofilm, microinvertebrate, and vertebrate taxa. Enhanced understanding of whole river food webs will improve the prediction of river-ecosystem responses to deglaciation while offering the potential to identify and protect a wider range of sensitive and threatened species.}, }
@article {pmid29599047, year = {2018}, author = {Leffers, J and Butterfield, P}, title = {Nurses play essential roles in reducing health problems due to climate change.}, journal = {Nursing outlook}, volume = {66}, number = {2}, pages = {210-213}, doi = {10.1016/j.outlook.2018.02.008}, pmid = {29599047}, issn = {1528-3968}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; Societies, Nursing ; }, }
@article {pmid29595780, year = {2018}, author = {Butler, CD and Kefford, BJ}, title = {Climate change as a contributor to human conflict.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {555}, number = {7698}, pages = {587}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-03795-0}, pmid = {29595780}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid29595567, year = {2019}, author = {McDermott-Levy, R and Jackman-Murphy, KP and Leffers, JM and Jordan, L}, title = {Integrating Climate Change Into Nursing Curricula.}, journal = {Nurse educator}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {43-47}, doi = {10.1097/NNE.0000000000000525}, pmid = {29595567}, issn = {1538-9855}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Curriculum ; Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Nursing Education Research ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a significant threat to human health across the life cycle. Nurses play an important role in mitigation, adaptation, and resilience to climate change. The use of health care resources, air quality and extreme heat, mental health, and natural disasters are major content areas across undergraduate nursing curricula that influence or are influenced by climate change. Teaching strategies and resources are offered to prepare nursing students to address climate change and human health.}, }
@article {pmid29595166, year = {2018}, author = {Kristvik, E and Kleiven, GH and Lohne, J and Muthanna, TM}, title = {Assessing the robustness of raingardens under climate change using SDSM and temporal downscaling.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {77}, number = {5-6}, pages = {1640-1650}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2018.043}, pmid = {29595166}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Cities ; *Climate Change ; Drainage, Sanitary ; Floods ; Norway ; *Rain ; Time Factors ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to lead to higher precipitation amounts and intensities causing an increase of the risk for flooding and combined sewer overflows in urban areas. To cope with these changes, water managers are requesting practical tools that can facilitate adaptive planning. This study was carried out to investigate how recent developments in downscaling techniques can be used to assess the effects of adaptive measures. A combined spatial-temporal downscaling methodology using the Statistical DownScaling Model-Decision Centric (SDSM-DC) and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution was applied to project future precipitation in the city of Bergen, Norway. A raingarden was considered a potential adaptive measure, and its performance was assessed using the RECARGA simulation tool. The benefits and limitations of using the proposed method have been demonstrated and compared to current design practices in Norway. Large differences in the raingarden's performance with respect to percentage overflow and lag-time reduction were found for varying projections. This highlights the need for working with a range of possible futures. Further, it was found that Ksat was the determining factor for peak-flow reduction and that different values of Ksat had different benefits. Engineering flexible solutions by combining measures holding different characteristics will induce robust adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid29595165, year = {2018}, author = {Vu, DT and Yamada, T and Ishidaira, H}, title = {Assessing the impact of sea level rise due to climate change on seawater intrusion in Mekong Delta, Vietnam.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {77}, number = {5-6}, pages = {1632-1639}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2018.038}, pmid = {29595165}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Rivers/*chemistry ; *Salinity ; *Seawater ; Vietnam ; }, abstract = {In the context of climate change, salinity intrusion into rivers has been, and will be, one of the most important issues for coastal water resources management. A combination of changes, including increased temperature, change in regional rainfall, especially sea level rise (SLR) related to climate change, will have significant impacts on this phenomenon. This paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (MKD) for evaluating the effect of sea water intrusion under a new SLR scenario. Salinity intrusion was simulated by one-dimensional (1D) modeling. The relative sea level projection was constructed corresponding to the RCP 6.0 emission scenario for MKD based on the statistical downscaling method. The sea level in 2050 is projected to increase from 25 cm to 30 cm compared to the baseline period (in 2000). Furthermore, the simulated results suggested that salinity greater than 4 g/l, which affects rice yield, will intrude up to 50-60 km into the river. Approximately 30,000 ha of agricultural area will be affected if the sea level rise is 30 cm.}, }
@article {pmid29594685, year = {2018}, author = {M'mboroki, KG and Wandiga, S and Oriaso, SO}, title = {Climate change impacts detection in dry forested ecosystem as indicated by vegetation cover change in -Laikipia, of Kenya.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {190}, number = {4}, pages = {255}, pmid = {29594685}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Forests ; Humans ; Kenya ; Plants ; Poaceae ; }, abstract = {The objective of the study was to detect and identify land cover changes in Laikipia County of Kenya that have occurred during the last three decades. The land use types of study area are six, of which three are the main and the other three are the minor. The main three, forest, shrub or bush land and grassland, changed during the period, of which grasslands reduced by 5864 ha (40%), forest by 3071 ha (24%) and shrub and bush land increased by 8912 ha (43%). The other three minor land use types were bare land which had reduced by 238 ha (45%), river bed vegetation increased by 209 ha (72%) and agriculture increased by 52 ha (600%) over the period decades. Differences in spatiotemporal variations of vegetation could be largely attributed to the effects of climate factors, anthropogenic activities and their interactions. Precipitation and temperature have been demonstrated to be the key climate factors for plant growth and vegetation development where rainfall decreased by 200 mm and temperatures increased by 1.5 °C over the period. Also, the opinion of the community on the change of land use and management was attributed to climate change and also adaptation strategies applied by the community over time. For example unlike the common understanding that forest resources utilisation increases with increasing human population, Mukogodo dry forested ecosystem case is different in that the majority of the respondents (78.9%) reported that the forest resource use was more in that period than now and also a similar majority (74.2%) had the same opinion that forest resource utilisation was low compared to last 30 years. In Yaaku community, change impacts were evidenced and thus mitigation measures suggested to address the impacts which included the following: controlled bush management and indigenous grass reseeding programme were advocated to restore original grasslands, and agricultural (crop farming) activities are carried out in designated areas outside the forest conservation areas (ecosystem zoning) all in consultation with government (political class), community and other stakeholders. Groups are organised (environmental management committee) to address conservation, political and vulnerability issues in the pastoral dry forested ecosystem which will sustain pastoralism in the ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid29593244, year = {2018}, author = {Treves, A and Artelle, KA and Darimont, CT and Lynn, WS and Paquet, P and Santiago-Ávila, FJ and Shaw, R and Wood, MC}, title = {Author Correction: Intergenerational equity can help to prevent climate change and extinction.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {5}, pages = {910}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0512-8}, pmid = {29593244}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {The original Article mistakenly coded the constitutional rights of Australia as containing a governmental duty to protect the environment (blue in the figures); this has been corrected to containing no explicit mention of environmental protection (orange in the figures). The original Article also neglected to code the constitutional rights of the Cayman Islands (no data; yellow in the figures); this has been corrected to containing a governmental duty to protect the environment (blue in the figures).Although no inferences changed as a result of these errors, many values changed slightly and have been corrected. The proportion of the world's nations having constitutional rights to a healthy environment changed from 75% to 74%. The proportions of nations in different categories given in the Fig. 1 caption all changed except purple countries (3.1%): green countries changed from 47.2% to 46.9%; blue countries changed from 24.4% to 24.2%; and orange countries changed from 25.3% to 25.8%. The proportion of the global atmospheric CO2 emitted by the 144 nations changed from 72.6% to 74.4%; the proportion of the world's population represented by the 144 nations changed from 84.9% to 85%. The values of annual average CO2 emissions for blue countries changed from 363,000 Gg to 353,000 Gg and for orange countries from 195,000 Gg to 201,000 Gg. The proportion of threatened mammals endemic to a single country represented by the 144 countries changed from 91% to 84%. Figures 1-3 have been updated to show the correct values and map colours and the Supplementary Information has been updated to give the correct country codes.}, }
@article {pmid29581589, year = {2018}, author = {Blockley, S and Candy, I and Matthews, I and Langdon, P and Langdon, C and Palmer, A and Lincoln, P and Abrook, A and Taylor, B and Conneller, C and Bayliss, A and MacLeod, A and Deeprose, L and Darvill, C and Kearney, R and Beavan, N and Staff, R and Bamforth, M and Taylor, M and Milner, N}, title = {The resilience of postglacial hunter-gatherers to abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {5}, pages = {810-818}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0508-4}, pmid = {29581589}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {Archaeology ; *Climate Change ; England ; Humans ; *Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Understanding the resilience of early societies to climate change is an essential part of exploring the environmental sensitivity of human populations. There is significant interest in the role of abrupt climate events as a driver of early Holocene human activity, but there are very few well-dated records directly compared with local climate archives. Here, we present evidence from the internationally important Mesolithic site of Star Carr showing occupation during the early Holocene, which is directly compared with a high-resolution palaeoclimate record from neighbouring lake beds. We show that-once established-there was intensive human activity at the site for several hundred years when the community was subject to multiple, severe, abrupt climate events that impacted air temperatures, the landscape and the ecosystem of the region. However, these results show that occupation and activity at the site persisted regardless of the environmental stresses experienced by this society. The Star Carr population displayed a high level of resilience to climate change, suggesting that postglacial populations were not necessarily held hostage to the flickering switch of climate change. Instead, we show that local, intrinsic changes in the wetland environment were more significant in determining human activity than the large-scale abrupt early Holocene climate events.}, }
@article {pmid29581283, year = {2018}, author = {McGuire, AD and Lawrence, DM and Koven, C and Clein, JS and Burke, E and Chen, G and Jafarov, E and MacDougall, AH and Marchenko, S and Nicolsky, D and Peng, S and Rinke, A and Ciais, P and Gouttevin, I and Hayes, DJ and Ji, D and Krinner, G and Moore, JC and Romanovsky, V and Schädel, C and Schaefer, K and Schuur, EAG and Zhuang, Q}, title = {Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {15}, pages = {3882-3887}, pmid = {29581283}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km[2] for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km[2] for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (10[15]-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.}, }
@article {pmid29579676, year = {2018}, author = {Gomes, MP and de Brito, JCM and Bicalho, EM and Silva, JG and de Fátima Gomides, M and Garcia, QS and Figueredo, CC}, title = {Ciprofloxacin vs. temperature: Antibiotic toxicity in the free-floating liverwort Ricciocarpus natans from a climate change perspective.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {202}, number = {}, pages = {410-419}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2018.03.048}, pmid = {29579676}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Anti-Bacterial Agents/toxicity ; Antioxidants ; Ciprofloxacin/*pharmacokinetics/toxicity ; Climate Change ; Hepatophyta/enzymology/*metabolism ; Hydrogen Peroxide/metabolism/pharmacology ; Photosynthesis/drug effects ; Plants/metabolism ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The physiological responses of the aquatic liverwort Ricciocarpus natans to ciprofloxacin (Cipro) exposure under different growth temperatures were investigated. Cipro appears to act as an inhibitor of mitochondrial Complex III by blocking the oxidation of quinol, resulting in the formation of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). H2O2 accumulation upon Cipro exposure is responsible for decreased photosynthesis in plants. The amount of H2O2 in plants is kept under control by antioxidant enzymes, whose activities are central to the responses of plants to Cipro yet are influenced by temperature. Increased temperature favored Cipro uptake by plants as well as its deleterious effects on mitochondrial activity; however, it also favored the activity of antioxidant enzymes, thereby preventing the exacerbation of the deleterious effects of Cipro. The uptake of Cipro by plants appears to be largely a passive process, although some uptake must be driven by an energy-consuming process. Ricciocarpus natans should be considered for programs aimed at the reclamation of Cipro since this plant exhibits high Cipro-tolerance, the capacity for accumulation and increased uptake rates of the antibiotic with increasing temperatures (from 20 to 30 °C).}, }
@article {pmid29579656, year = {2018}, author = {An, L and Che, H and Xue, M and Zhang, T and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Zhou, C and Zhao, H and Gui, K and Zheng, Y and Sun, T and Liang, Y and Sun, E and Zhang, H and Zhang, X}, title = {Temporal and spatial variations in sand and dust storm events in East Asia from 2007 to 2016: Relationships with surface conditions and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {633}, number = {}, pages = {452-462}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.068}, pmid = {29579656}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {We analyzed the frequency and intensity of sand and dust storms (SDSs) in East Asia from 2007 to 2016 using observational data from ground stations, numerical modeling, and vegetation indices obtained from both satellite and reanalysis data. The relationships of SDSs with surface conditions and the synoptic circulation pattern were also analyzed. The statistical analyses demonstrated that the number and intensity of SDS events recorded in spring during 2007 to 2016 showed a decreasing trend. The total number of spring SDSs decreased from at least ten events per year before 2011 to less than ten events per year after 2011. The overall average annual variation of the surface dust concentration in the main dust source regions decreased 33.24μg/m[3] (-1.75%) annually. The variation in the temperatures near and below the ground surface and the amount of precipitation and soil moisture all favored an improvement in vegetation coverage, which reduced the intensity and frequency of SDSs. The strong winds accompanying the influx of cold air from high latitudes showed a decreasing trend, leading to a decrease in the number of SDSs and playing a key role in the decadal decrease of SDSs. The decrease in the intensity of the polar vortex during study period was closely related to the decrease in the intensity and frequency of SDSs.}, }
@article {pmid29576329, year = {2018}, author = {Johnson, SN and Züst, T}, title = {Climate Change and Insect Pests: Resistance Is Not Futile?.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {367-369}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2018.03.001}, pmid = {29576329}, issn = {1878-4372}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Food Supply ; Herbivory ; *Insecta ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Chemical signals produced by plants when attacked by herbivores play a crucial role in efficient plant defence. A recent study suggests that herbivore-specific R-gene resistance may be enhanced by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Understanding how climate change affects plant resistance to herbivorous pests could be essential for future food security.}, }
@article {pmid29574605, year = {2018}, author = {Demain, JG}, title = {Climate Change and the Impact on Respiratory and Allergic Disease: 2018.}, journal = {Current allergy and asthma reports}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {22}, pmid = {29574605}, issn = {1534-6315}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Hypersensitivity ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The purpose of this paper is to review allergic respiratory disease related to indoor and outdoor exposures and to examine the impact of known and projected changes in climate. The global burden of disease directly attributed to climate change is very difficult to measure and becomes more challenging when the capacity of humans to adapt to these changes is taken into consideration. Allergic respiratory disease, such as asthma, is quite heterogenous, though closely associated with environmental and consequently immunologic interaction. Where is the tipping point?<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Our climate has been measurably changing for the past 100&#xa0;years. It may indeed be the most significant health threat of the twenty-first century, and consequently tackling climate change may be the greatest health opportunity. The impacts of climate change on human health are varied and coming more into focus. Direct effects, such as heatwaves, severe weather, drought, and flooding, are apparent and frequently in the news. Indirect or secondary effects, such as changes in ecosystems and the impact on health, are less obvious. It is these changes in ecosystems that may have the greatest impact on allergic and respiratory diseases. This review will explore some ways that climate change, current and predicted, influences respiratory disease. Discussion will focus on changing pollen patterns, damp buildings with increased mold exposure, air pollution, and heat stress.}, }
@article {pmid29573674, year = {2018}, author = {Ortega Díaz, A and Gutiérrez, EC}, title = {Competing actors in the climate change arena in Mexico: A network analysis.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {215}, number = {}, pages = {239-247}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.03.056}, pmid = {29573674}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Mexico ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {This paper analyzes the actors in the climate change arena and their influence in directing Mexico toward policies that decrease greenhouse gas emissions, such as the carbon tax and climate change law. The network analysis of the agreement of these laws and public policies in Mexico is a lesson for any country that is in the process of designing and adopting environmental laws. The research is performed using a network analysis that is derived from interviews with various main actors and a discourse analysis of the media. Results show that actors do not coordinate their efforts-they meet frequently but in different inter-ministerial commissions-and do not enforce the same policies. The actors in the industry have formed strong coalitions against the carbon tax and the General Law on Climate Change, whereas international institutions have formed coalitions that support these policies and laws.}, }
@article {pmid29571311, year = {2018}, author = {Laaidi, K and Pascal, M and Léon, C and Beaudeau, P}, title = {[Reducing the impacts of hot weather in a context of climate change].}, journal = {Soins; la revue de reference infirmiere}, volume = {63}, number = {823}, pages = {28-30}, doi = {10.1016/j.soin.2018.01.005}, pmid = {29571311}, issn = {0038-0814}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health/standards ; *Health Promotion/methods/organization &amp; administration ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; *Preventive Medicine/methods/organization &amp; administration ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on the health of individuals raises fears of significant long-term effects. Certain repercussions are already evident. Health professionals, particularly those working with vulnerable people, play a key role in health promotion and taking into account the challenges posed by hot weather. They need to be better trained in order to promote behaviours more favourable to health.}, }
@article {pmid29570924, year = {2018}, author = {Footitt, S and Huang, Z and Ölcer-Footitt, H and Clay, H and Finch-Savage, WE}, title = {The impact of global warming on germination and seedling emergence in Alliaria petiolata, a woodland species with dormancy loss dependent on low temperature.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {682-690}, doi = {10.1111/plb.12720}, pmid = {29570924}, issn = {1438-8677}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Brassicaceae/*physiology ; Forests ; Germination/*physiology ; Global Warming ; Plant Dormancy ; Seedlings/*growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The impact of global warming on seed dormancy loss and germination was investigated in Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard), a common woodland/hedgerow plant in Eurasia, considered invasive in North America. Increased temperature may have serious implications, since seeds of this species germinate and emerge at low temperatures early in spring to establish and grow before canopy development of competing species. Dormancy was evaluated in seeds buried in field soils. Seedling emergence was also investigated in the field, and in a thermogradient tunnel under global warming scenarios representing predicted UK air temperatures through to 2080. Dormancy was simple, and its relief required the accumulation of low temperature chilling time. Under a global warming scenario, dormancy relief and seedling emergence declined and seed mortality increased as soil temperature increased along a thermal gradient. Seedling emergence advanced with soil temperature, peaking 8 days earlier under 2080 conditions. The results indicate that as mean temperature increases due to global warming, the chilling requirement for dormancy relief may not be fully satisfied, but seedling emergence will continue from low dormancy seeds in the population. Adaptation resulting from selection of this low dormancy proportion is likely to reduce the overall population chilling requirement. Seedling emergence is also likely to keep pace with the advancement of biological spring, enabling A. petiolata to maintain its strategy of establishment before the woodland canopy closes. However, this potential for adaptation may be countered by increased seed mortality in the seed bank as soils warm.}, }
@article {pmid29569798, year = {2018}, author = {Gavazov, K and Albrecht, R and Buttler, A and Dorrepaal, E and Garnett, MH and Gogo, S and Hagedorn, F and Mills, RTE and Robroek, BJM and Bragazza, L}, title = {Vascular plant-mediated controls on atmospheric carbon assimilation and peat carbon decomposition under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {9}, pages = {3911-3921}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14140}, pmid = {29569798}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Plant Development ; Plants/*metabolism ; Seasons ; Soil/*chemistry ; Sphagnopsida ; }, abstract = {Climate change can alter peatland plant community composition by promoting the growth of vascular plants. How such vegetation change affects peatland carbon dynamics remains, however, unclear. In order to assess the effect of vegetation change on carbon uptake and release, we performed a vascular plant-removal experiment in two Sphagnum-dominated peatlands that represent contrasting stages of natural vegetation succession along a climatic gradient. Periodic measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange revealed that vascular plants play a crucial role in assuring the potential for net carbon uptake, particularly with a warmer climate. The presence of vascular plants, however, also increased ecosystem respiration, and by using the seasonal variation of respired CO2 radiocarbon (bomb-[14] C) signature we demonstrate an enhanced heterotrophic decomposition of peat carbon due to rhizosphere priming. The observed rhizosphere priming of peat carbon decomposition was matched by more advanced humification of dissolved organic matter, which remained apparent beyond the plant growing season. Our results underline the relevance of rhizosphere priming in peatlands, especially when assessing the future carbon sink function of peatlands undergoing a shift in vegetation community composition in association with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29569788, year = {2018}, author = {Krause, A and Pugh, TAM and Bayer, AD and Li, W and Leung, F and Bondeau, A and Doelman, JC and Humpenöder, F and Anthoni, P and Bodirsky, BL and Ciais, P and Müller, C and Murray-Tortarolo, G and Olin, S and Popp, A and Sitch, S and Stehfest, E and Arneth, A}, title = {Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {7}, pages = {3025-3038}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14144}, pmid = {29569788}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Crops, Agricultural ; Forests ; Soil ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy.}, }
@article {pmid29568006, year = {2018}, author = {Bathiany, S and Scheffer, M and van Nes, EH and Williamson, MS and Lenton, TM}, title = {Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {5040}, pmid = {29568006}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The notion that small changes can have large consequences in the climate or ecosystems has become popular as the concept of tipping points. Typically, tipping points are thought to arise from a loss of stability of an equilibrium when external conditions are slowly varied. However, this appealingly simple view puts us on the wrong foot for understanding a range of abrupt transitions in the climate or ecosystems because complex environmental systems are never in equilibrium. In particular, they are forced by diurnal variations, the seasons, Milankovitch cycles and internal climate oscillations. Here we show how abrupt and sometimes even irreversible change may be evoked by even small shifts in the amplitude or time scale of such environmental oscillations. By using model simulations and reconciling evidence from previous studies we illustrate how these phenomena can be relevant for ecosystems and elements of the climate system including terrestrial ecosystems, Arctic sea ice and monsoons. Although the systems we address are very different and span a broad range of time scales, the phenomena can be understood in a common framework that can help clarify and unify the interpretation of abrupt shifts in the Earth system.}, }
@article {pmid29564970, year = {2018}, author = {Kowalczewski, E and Klein, J}, title = {Sámi youth health, the role of climate change, and unique health-seeking behaviour.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {77}, number = {1}, pages = {1454785}, pmid = {29564970}, issn = {2242-3982}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adolescent Health/*ethnology ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Ethnicity/psychology ; Focus Groups ; Humans ; Medicine, Traditional ; Patient Acceptance of Health Care/*ethnology ; Qualitative Research ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The goal of this cross-sectional qualitative study was to assess the impact of climate change on Sámi youth health, health care access, and health-seeking behaviour. Indigenous research methodology served as the basis of the investigation which utilised focus groups of youths and one-on-one interviews of adult community leaders using a semi-structured, open-ended questions. The results of the focus groups and interviews were then analysed to identify trends. We found that Sámi youth mostly associate the implications of climate change to their culture andcultural practices rather than the historical influence the environment had on Sámi health. They also take part in unique health-seeking behaviour by utilising both traditional and Western medicine simultaneously but without interaction due to social and structural factors. Our findings suggest that the health of Sámi teens is not tied to the environment directly, but through cultural activities.}, }
@article {pmid29561837, year = {2018}, author = {Wu, JX and Wilsey, CB and Taylor, L and Schuurman, GW}, title = {Projected avifaunal responses to climate change across the U.S. National Park System.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {e0190557}, pmid = {29561837}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Demography ; *Models, Biological ; *Parks, Recreational ; Seasons ; United States ; }, abstract = {Birds in U.S. national parks find strong protection from many longstanding and pervasive threats, but remain highly exposed to effects of ongoing climate change. To understand how climate change is likely to alter bird communities in parks, we used species distribution models relating North American Breeding Bird Survey (summer) and Audubon Christmas Bird Count (winter) observations to climate data from the early 2000s and projected to 2041-2070 (hereafter, mid-century) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. We analyzed climate suitability projections over time for 513 species across 274 national parks, classifying them as improving, worsening, stable, potential colonization, and potential extirpation. U.S. national parks are projected to become increasingly important for birds in the coming decades as potential colonizations exceed extirpations in 62-100% of parks, with an average ratio of potential colonizations to extirpations of 4.1 in winter and 1.4 in summer under RCP8.5. Average species turnover is 23% in both summer and winter under RCP8.5. Species turnover (Bray-Curtis) and potential colonization and extirpation rates are positively correlated with latitude in the contiguous 48 states. Parks in the Midwest and Northeast are expected to see particularly high rates of change. All patterns are more extreme under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6. Based on the ratio of potential colonization and extirpation, parks were classified into overall trend groups associated with specific climate-informed conservation strategies. Substantial change to bird and ecological communities is anticipated in coming decades, and current thinking suggests managing towards a forward-looking concept of ecological integrity that accepts change and novel ecological conditions, rather than focusing management goals exclusively on maintaining or restoring a static set of historical conditions.}, }
@article {pmid29559704, year = {2018}, author = {Rezaei, EE and Siebert, S and Hüging, H and Ewert, F}, title = {Climate change effect on wheat phenology depends on cultivar change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {4891}, pmid = {29559704}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Germany ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Changing crop phenology is considered an important bio-indicator of climate change, with the recent warming trend causing an advancement in crop phenology. Little is known about the contributions of changes in sowing dates and cultivars to long-term trends in crop phenology, particularly for winter crops such as winter wheat. Here, we analyze a long-term (1952-2013) dataset of phenological observations across western Germany and observations from a two-year field experiment to directly compare the phenologies of winter wheat cultivars released between 1950 and 2006. We found a 14-18% decline in the temperature sum required from emergence to flowering for the modern cultivars of winter wheat compared with the cultivars grown in the 1950s and 1960s. The trends in the flowering day obtained from a phenology model parameterized with the field observations showed that changes in the mean temperature and cultivar properties contributed similarly to the trends in the flowering day, whereas the effects of changes in the sowing day were negligible. We conclude that the single-cultivar concept commonly used in climate change impact assessments results in an overestimation of winter wheat sensitivity to increasing temperature, which suggests that studies on climate change effects should consider changes in cultivars.}, }
@article {pmid29557538, year = {2018}, author = {Angelini, C and van Montfrans, SG and Hensel, MJS and He, Q and Silliman, BR}, title = {The importance of an underestimated grazer under climate change: how crab density, consumer competition, and physical stress affect salt marsh resilience.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {187}, number = {1}, pages = {205-217}, pmid = {29557538}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {1546638//National Science Foundation (USA)/International ; 1445834//National Science Foundation (USA)/International ; 0620959//National Science Foundation (USA)/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Brachyura ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Poaceae ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Climate change and consumer outbreaks are driving ecosystem collapse worldwide. Although much research has demonstrated that these factors can interact, how heterogeneity in top-down control intensity and physical forcing modulates ecosystem resilience to climate stress remains poorly understood. Here, we explore whether the nocturnal herbivorous crab Sesarma reticulatum can control spatially dominant cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) growth and how its top-down effects vary with crab density, drought stress, and large-scale disturbance in southeastern US salt marshes. In multiple field experiments and surveys, we show that Sesarma depresses cordgrass growth and that its effects increase in a saturating manner with increasing crab density, such that the highest naturally occurring densities of this consumer can trigger local cordgrass die-off. This top-down effect of Sesarma is similar in magnitude to what is thought to be the dominant grazer in the system, the marsh periwinkle snail Littoraria irrorata. In a drought stress by Sesarma density experiment, we further show that salinity stress and intensive crab herbivory additively suppress cordgrass drought resistance. After drought subsides, surveys and experiments reveal that Sesarma also stifles cordgrass re-growth into existing die-off areas. Together, these results show that multiple grazers powerfully regulate the productivity and drought resilience of these intertidal grasslands and that heterogeneity in physical stress and consumer density can dictate when and where top-down forcing is important. More generally, this work provides a rare, experimental demonstration of the critical role top-down control can play across the initiation and recovery stages of ecosystem die-off.}, }
@article {pmid29556762, year = {2018}, author = {Martin, G and Yanez-Arenas, C and Chen, C and Plowright, RK and Webb, RJ and Skerratt, LF}, title = {Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {509-525}, pmid = {29556762}, issn = {1612-9210}, support = {PRJ-008213//Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Domestic/*virology ; Australia/epidemiology ; Chiroptera/*virology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disease Outbreaks/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Geography ; Henipavirus Infections/*epidemiology/*transmission/virology ; Horses/virology ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175-260% (110,000-165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.}, }
@article {pmid29556118, year = {2018}, author = {Fullerton, AH and Torgersen, CE and Lawler, JJ and Steel, EA and Ebersole, JL and Lee, SY}, title = {Longitudinal thermal heterogeneity in rivers and refugia for coldwater species: effects of scale and climate change.}, journal = {Aquatic sciences}, volume = {80}, number = {3}, pages = {1-15}, pmid = {29556118}, issn = {1015-1621}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; EPA999999//Intramural EPA/ ; }, abstract = {Climate-change driven increases in water temperature pose challenges for aquatic organisms. Predictions of impacts typically do not account for fine-grained spatiotemporal thermal patterns in rivers. Patches of cooler water could serve as refuges for anadromous species like salmon that migrate during summer. We used high-resolution remotely sensed water temperature data to characterize summer thermal heterogeneity patterns for 11,308 km of 2[nd]- to 7[th]-order rivers throughout the Pacific Northwest and northern California (USA). We evaluated (1) water temperature patterns at different spatial resolutions, (2) the frequency, size, and spacing of cool thermal patches suitable for Pacific salmon (i.e., contiguous stretches ≥0.25 km, ≤15°C and ≥2°C cooler than adjacent water), and (3) potential influences of climate change on availability of cool patches. Thermal heterogeneity was nonlinearly related to the spatial resolution of water temperature data, and heterogeneity at fine resolution (<1 km) would have been difficult to quantify without spatially continuous data. Cool patches were generally >2.7 and <13.0 km long, and spacing among patches was generally >5.7 and <49.4 km. Thermal heterogeneity varied among rivers, some of which had long uninterrupted stretches of warm water ≥20°C, and others had many smaller cool patches. Our models predicted little change in future thermal heterogeneity among rivers, but within-river patterns sometimes changed markedly compared to contemporary patterns. These results can inform long-term monitoring programs as well as near-term climate-adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid29555758, year = {2018}, author = {Law, BE and Hudiburg, TW and Berner, LT and Kent, JJ and Buotte, PC and Harmon, ME}, title = {Land use strategies to mitigate climate change in carbon dense temperate forests.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {14}, pages = {3663-3668}, pmid = {29555758}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Carbon/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fires ; *Forestry ; *Forests ; }, abstract = {Strategies to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions through forestry activities have been proposed, but ecosystem process-based integration of climate change, enhanced CO2, disturbance from fire, and management actions at regional scales are extremely limited. Here, we examine the relative merits of afforestation, reforestation, management changes, and harvest residue bioenergy use in the Pacific Northwest. This region represents some of the highest carbon density forests in the world, which can store carbon in trees for 800 y or more. Oregon's net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was equivalent to 72% of total emissions in 2011-2015. By 2100, simulations show increased net carbon uptake with little change in wildfires. Reforestation, afforestation, lengthened harvest cycles on private lands, and restricting harvest on public lands increase NECB 56% by 2100, with the latter two actions contributing the most. Resultant cobenefits included water availability and biodiversity, primarily from increased forest area, age, and species diversity. Converting 127,000 ha of irrigated grass crops to native forests could decrease irrigation demand by 233 billion m[3]⋅y[-1] Utilizing harvest residues for bioenergy production instead of leaving them in forests to decompose increased emissions in the short-term (50 y), reducing mitigation effectiveness. Increasing forest carbon on public lands reduced emissions compared with storage in wood products because the residence time is more than twice that of wood products. Hence, temperate forests with high carbon densities and lower vulnerability to mortality have substantial potential for reducing forest sector emissions. Our analysis framework provides a template for assessments in other temperate regions.}, }
@article {pmid29555741, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Correction for Gay-Antaki and Liverman, Climate for women in climate science: Women scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {14}, pages = {E3324}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1803793115}, pmid = {29555741}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid29554770, year = {2018}, author = {Alvioli, M and Melillo, M and Guzzetti, F and Rossi, M and Palazzi, E and von Hardenberg, J and Brunetti, MT and Peruccacci, S}, title = {Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {630}, number = {}, pages = {1528-1543}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.315}, pmid = {29554770}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The relation between climate change and its potential effects on the stability of slopes remains an open issue. For rainfall induced landslides, the point consists in determining the effects of the projected changes in the duration and amounts of rainfall that can initiate slope failures. We investigated the relationship between fine-scale climate projections obtained by downscaling and the expected modifications in landslide occurrence in Central Italy. We used rainfall measurements taken by 56 rain gauges in the 9-year period 2003-2011, and the RainFARM technique to generate downscaled synthetic rainfall fields from regional climate model projections for the 14-year calibration period 2002-2015, and for the 40-year projection period 2010-2049. Using a specific algorithm, we extracted a number of rainfall events, i.e. rainfall periods separated by dry periods of no or negligible amount of rain, from the measured and the synthetic rainfall series. Then, we used the selected rainfall events to forcethe Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model TRIGRS v. 2.1. We analyzed the results in terms of variations (or lack of variations) in the rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, in the probability distribution of landslide size (area), and in landslide hazard. Results showed that the downscaled rainfall fields obtained by RainFARM can be used to single out rainfall events, and to force the slope stability model. Results further showed that while the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence are expected to change in future scenarios, the probability distribution of landslide areas are not. We infer that landslide hazard in the study area is expected to change in response to the projected variations in the rainfall conditions. We expect our results to contribute to regional investigations of the expected impact of projected climate variations on slope stability conditions and on landslide hazards.}, }
@article {pmid29554625, year = {2018}, author = {Fernandino, G and Elliff, CI and Silva, IR}, title = {Ecosystem-based management of coastal zones in face of climate change impacts: Challenges and inequalities.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {215}, number = {}, pages = {32-39}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.03.034}, pmid = {29554625}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change effects have the potential of affecting both ocean and atmospheric processes. These changes pose serious threats to the millions of people that live by the coast. Thus, the objective of the present review is to discuss how climate change is altering (and will continue to alter) atmospheric and oceanic processes, what are the main implications of these alterations along the coastline, and which are the ecosystem-based management (EBM) strategies that have been proposed and applied to address these issues. While ocean warming, ocean acidification and increasing sea level have been more extensively studied, investigations on the effects of climate change to wind and wave climates are less frequent. Coastal ecosystems and their respective natural resources will respond differently according to location, environmental drivers and coastal processes. EBM strategies have mostly concentrated on improving ecosystem services, which can be used to assist in mitigating climate change effects. The main challenge for developing nations regards gaps in information and scarcity of resources. Thus, for effective management and adaptive EBM strategies to be developed worldwide, information at a local level is greatly needed.}, }
@article {pmid29554132, year = {2018}, author = {Anjos, LJS and de Toledo, PM}, title = {Measuring resilience and assessing vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change in South America.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {e0194654}, pmid = {29554132}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization/physiology ; Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring ; *Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Forests ; Grassland ; Models, Theoretical ; South America ; Stress, Physiological/physiology ; Trees ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been identified as the primary threat to the integrity and functioning of ecosystems in this century, although there is still much uncertainty about its effects and the degree of vulnerability for different ecosystems to this threat. Here we propose a new methodological approach capable of measuring and mapping the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems at large scales based on their climatic niche. To do this, we used high spatial resolution remote sensing data and ecological niche modeling techniques to calculate and spatialize the resilience of three stable states of ecosystems in South America: forest, savanna, and grassland. Also, we evaluated the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate stress, the likelihood of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions, and their respective adaptive capacities in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that forests, the most productive and biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems on the earth, are more vulnerable to climate change than savannas or grasslands. Forests showed less resistance to climate stress and a higher chance of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions. If this scenario occurs, the forest ecosystems would have less chance of adaptation compared to savannas or grasslands because of their narrow climate niche. Therefore, we can conclude that a possible consolidation of non-analogous climatic conditions would lead to a loss of resilience in the forest ecosystem, significantly increasing the chance of a critical transition event to another stable state with a lower density of vegetation cover (e.g., savanna or grassland).}, }
@article {pmid29548012, year = {2018}, author = {Maguire, KC and Shinneman, DJ and Potter, KM and Hipkins, VD}, title = {Intraspecific Niche Models for Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa) Suggest Potential Variability in Population-Level Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Systematic biology}, volume = {67}, number = {6}, pages = {965-978}, doi = {10.1093/sysbio/syy017}, pmid = {29548012}, issn = {1076-836X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Phylogeny ; Pinus ponderosa/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently available, geographically widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29547592, year = {2018}, author = {Banwell, N and Rutherford, S and Mackey, B and Street, R and Chu, C}, title = {Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {29547592}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Global Health ; Humans ; Risk ; }, abstract = {Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.}, }
@article {pmid29545820, year = {2018}, author = {Cassia, R and Nocioni, M and Correa-Aragunde, N and Lamattina, L}, title = {Climate Change and the Impact of Greenhouse Gasses: CO2 and NO, Friends and Foes of Plant Oxidative Stress.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {273}, pmid = {29545820}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Here, we review information on how plants face redox imbalance caused by climate change, and focus on the role of nitric oxide (NO) in this response. Life on Earth is possible thanks to greenhouse effect. Without it, temperature on Earth's surface would be around -19°C, instead of the current average of 14°C. Greenhouse effect is produced by greenhouse gasses (GHG) like water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxides (NxO) and ozone (O3). GHG have natural and anthropogenic origin. However, increasing GHG provokes extreme climate changes such as floods, droughts and heat, which induce reactive oxygen species (ROS) and oxidative stress in plants. The main sources of ROS in stress conditions are: augmented photorespiration, NADPH oxidase (NOX) activity, β-oxidation of fatty acids and disorders in the electron transport chains of mitochondria and chloroplasts. Plants have developed an antioxidant machinery that includes the activity of ROS detoxifying enzymes [e.g., superoxide dismutase (SOD), ascorbate peroxidase (APX), catalase (CAT), glutathione peroxidase (GPX), and peroxiredoxin (PRX)], as well as antioxidant molecules such as ascorbic acid (ASC) and glutathione (GSH) that are present in almost all subcellular compartments. CO2 and NO help to maintain the redox equilibrium. Higher CO2 concentrations increase the photosynthesis through the CO2-unsaturated Rubisco activity. But Rubisco photorespiration and NOX activities could also augment ROS production. NO regulate the ROS concentration preserving balance among ROS, GSH, GSNO, and ASC. When ROS are in huge concentration, NO induces transcription and activity of SOD, APX, and CAT. However, when ROS are necessary (e.g., for pathogen resistance), NO may inhibit APX, CAT, and NOX activity by the S-nitrosylation of cysteine residues, favoring cell death. NO also regulates GSH concentration in several ways. NO may react with GSH to form GSNO, the NO cell reservoir and main source of S-nitrosylation. GSNO could be decomposed by the GSNO reductase (GSNOR) to GSSG which, in turn, is reduced to GSH by glutathione reductase (GR). GSNOR may be also inhibited by S-nitrosylation and GR activated by NO. In conclusion, NO plays a central role in the tolerance of plants to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29545489, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {How will climate change affect king penguins?.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {182}, number = {11}, pages = {308-309}, pmid = {29545489}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Spheniscidae ; }, }
@article {pmid29540695, year = {2018}, author = {Leifeld, J and Menichetti, L}, title = {The underappreciated potential of peatlands in global climate change mitigation strategies.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1071}, pmid = {29540695}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Soil carbon sequestration and avoidable emissions through peatland restoration are both strategies to tackle climate change. Here we compare their potential and environmental costs regarding nitrogen and land demand. In the event that no further areas are exploited, drained peatlands will cumulatively release 80.8 Gt carbon and 2.3 Gt nitrogen. This corresponds to a contemporary annual greenhouse gas emission of 1.91 (0.31-3.38) Gt CO2-eq. that could be saved with peatland restoration. Soil carbon sequestration on all agricultural land has comparable mitigation potential. However, additional nitrogen is needed to build up a similar carbon pool in organic matter of mineral soils, equivalent to 30-80% of the global fertilizer nitrogen application annually. Restoring peatlands is 3.4 times less nitrogen costly and involves a much smaller land area demand than mineral soil carbon sequestration, calling for a stronger consideration of peatland rehabilitation as a mitigation measure.}, }
@article {pmid29536432, year = {2018}, author = {Anacona, PI and Kinney, J and Schaefer, M and Harrison, S and Wilson, R and Segovia, A and Mazzorana, B and Guerra, F and Farías, D and Reynolds, JM and Glasser, NF}, title = {Glacier protection laws: Potential conflicts in managing glacial hazards and adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {47}, number = {8}, pages = {835-845}, pmid = {29536432}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Argentina ; Chile ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Ecosystem ; Floods/mortality ; Freezing/adverse effects ; Humans ; Hydrostatic Pressure/adverse effects ; *Ice Cover ; *Jurisprudence ; Kyrgyzstan ; Lakes ; Mining/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {The environmental, socioeconomic and cultural significance of glaciers has motivated several countries to regulate activities on glaciers and glacierized surroundings. However, laws written to specifically protect mountain glaciers have only recently been considered within national political agendas. Glacier Protection Laws (GPLs) originate in countries where mining has damaged glaciers and have been adopted with the aim of protecting the cryosphere from harmful activities. Here, we analyze GPLs in Argentina (approved) and Chile (under discussion) to identify potential environmental conflicts arising from law restrictions and omissions. We conclude that GPLs overlook the dynamics of glaciers and could prevent or delay actions needed to mitigate glacial hazards (e.g. artificial drainage of glacial lakes) thus placing populations at risk. Furthermore, GPL restrictions could hinder strategies (e.g. use of glacial lakes as reservoirs) to mitigate adverse impacts of climate change. Arguably, more flexible GPLs are needed to protect us from the changing cryosphere.}, }
@article {pmid29536042, year = {2018}, author = {Shirzaei, M and Bürgmann, R}, title = {Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {eaap9234}, pmid = {29536042}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km[2] will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km[2] considering sea level rise alone.}, }
@article {pmid29535418, year = {2018}, author = {Tabari, H and Willems, P}, title = {Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {4435}, pmid = {29535418}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a "highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring" pattern which switches to the "increase in autumn, decrease in spring" pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier" paradigm.}, }
@article {pmid29535348, year = {2018}, author = {McGowan, H and Callow, JN and Soderholm, J and McGrath, G and Campbell, M and Zhao, JX}, title = {Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {4394}, pmid = {29535348}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.}, }
@article {pmid29532601, year = {2018}, author = {Rehnus, M and Bollmann, K and Schmatz, DR and Hackländer, K and Braunisch, V}, title = {Alpine glacial relict species losing out to climate change: The case of the fragmented mountain hare population (Lepus timidus) in the Alps.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {7}, pages = {3236-3253}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14087}, pmid = {29532601}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Hares/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Reproduction ; Switzerland ; *Tundra ; }, abstract = {Alpine and Arctic species are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, which is expected to cause habitat loss, fragmentation and-ultimately-extinction of cold-adapted species. However, the impact of climate change on glacial relict populations is not well understood, and specific recommendations for adaptive conservation management are lacking. We focused on the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) as a model species and modelled species distribution in combination with patch and landscape-based connectivity metrics. They were derived from graph-theory models to quantify changes in species distribution and to estimate the current and future importance of habitat patches for overall population connectivity. Models were calibrated based on 1,046 locations of species presence distributed across three biogeographic regions in the Swiss Alps and extrapolated according to two IPCC scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 &amp; 8.5), each represented by three downscaled global climate models. The models predicted an average habitat loss of 35% (22%-55%) by 2100, mainly due to an increase in temperature during the reproductive season. An increase in habitat fragmentation was reflected in a 43% decrease in patch size, a 17% increase in the number of habitat patches and a 34% increase in inter-patch distance. However, the predicted changes in habitat availability and connectivity varied considerably between biogeographic regions: Whereas the greatest habitat losses with an increase in inter-patch distance were predicted at the southern and northern edges of the species' Alpine distribution, the greatest increase in patch number and decrease in patch size is expected in the central Swiss Alps. Finally, both the number of isolated habitat patches and the number of patches crucial for maintaining the habitat network increased under the different variants of climate change. Focusing conservation action on the central Swiss Alps may help mitigate the predicted effects of climate change on population connectivity.}, }
@article {pmid29532257, year = {2018}, author = {Donnelly, A}, title = {Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {7}, pages = {1221-1228}, pmid = {29532257}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Insecta ; Ireland ; }, abstract = {A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.}, }
@article {pmid29527218, year = {2018}, author = {Johnson, SN and Ryalls, JMW and Gherlenda, AN and Frew, A and Hartley, SE}, title = {Benefits from Below: Silicon Supplementation Maintains Legume Productivity under Predicted Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {202}, pmid = {29527218}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Many studies demonstrate that elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (eCO2) can promote root nodulation and biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in legumes such as lucerne (Medicago sativa). But when elevated temperature (eT) conditions are applied in tandem with eCO2, a more realistic scenario for future climate change, the positive effects of eCO2 on nodulation and BNF in M. sativa are often much reduced. Silicon (Si) supplementation of M. sativa has also been reported to promote root nodulation and BNF, so could potentially restore the positive effects of eCO2 under eT. Increased nitrogen availability, however, could also increase host suitability for aphid pests, potentially negating any benefit. We applied eCO2 (+240 ppm) and eT (+4°C), separately and in combination, to M. sativa growing in Si supplemented (Si+) and un-supplemented soil (Si-) to determine whether Si moderated the effects of eCO2 and eT. Plants were either inoculated with the aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum or insect-free. In Si- soils, eCO2 stimulated plant growth by 67% and nodulation by 42%, respectively, whereas eT reduced these parameters by 26 and 48%, respectively. Aphids broadly mirrored these effects on Si- plants, increasing colonization rates under eCO2 and performing much worse (reduced abundance and colonization) under eT when compared to ambient conditions, confirming our hypothesized link between root nodulation, plant growth, and pest performance. Examined across all CO2 and temperature regimes, Si supplementation promoted plant growth (+93%), and root nodulation (+50%). A. pisum abundance declined sharply under eT conditions and was largely unaffected by Si supplementation. In conclusion, supplementing M. sativa with Si had consistent positive effects on plant growth and nodulation under different CO2 and temperature scenarios. These findings offer potential for using Si supplementation to maintain legume productivity under predicted climate change scenarios without making legumes more susceptible to insect pests.}, }
@article {pmid29523649, year = {2018}, author = {Li, G and Guo, Q and Liu, Y and Li, Y and Pan, X}, title = {Projected Temperature-Related Years of Life Lost From Stroke Due To Global Warming in a Temperate Climate City, Asia: Disease Burden Caused by Future Climate Change.}, journal = {Stroke}, volume = {49}, number = {4}, pages = {828-834}, doi = {10.1161/STROKEAHA.117.020042}, pmid = {29523649}, issn = {1524-4628}, mesh = {China/epidemiology ; Cities ; Climate Change/mortality ; Forecasting ; Global Warming/*mortality ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; *Life Expectancy ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Retrospective Studies ; Seasons ; Stroke/*mortality ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Global warming has attracted worldwide attention. Numerous studies have indicated that stroke is associated with temperature; however, few studies are available on the projections of the burden of stroke attributable to future climate change. We aimed to investigate the future trends of stroke years of life lost (YLL) associated with global warming.<br><br>METHODS: We collected death records to examine YLL in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson regression model after controlling for trends, day of the week, relative humidity, and air pollution. We estimated temperature-YLL associations with a distributed lag nonlinear model. These models were then applied to the local climate projections to estimate temperature-related YLL in the 2050s and 2070s. We projected temperature-related YLL from stroke in Tianjin under 19 global-scale climate models and 3 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed a slight decrease in YLL with percent decreases of 0.85%, 0.97%, and 1.02% in the 2050s and 0.94%, 1.02%, and 0.91% in the 2070s for the 3 scenarios, respectively. The increases in heat-related annual YLL and the decreases in cold-related YLL under the high emission scenario were the strongest. The monthly analysis showed that the most significant increase occurred in the summer months, particularly in August, with percent changes >150% in the 2050s and up to 300% in the 2070s.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Future changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related YLL, and this increase will not be offset by adaptation under both medium emission and high emission scenarios. Health protections from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold effects will also remain important.}, }
@article {pmid29521847, year = {2019}, author = {Kearney, GD and Bell, RA}, title = {Perceptions of Global Warming Among the Poorest Counties in the Southeastern United States.}, journal = {Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {107-112}, doi = {10.1097/PHH.0000000000000720}, pmid = {29521847}, issn = {1550-5022}, mesh = {Geographic Mapping ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Local Government ; *Perception ; *Poverty Areas ; Southeastern United States ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Vulnerable Populations/*psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {The geographic position and high level of poverty in the southeastern United States are significant risk factors that contribute to the region's high vulnerability to climate change. The goal of this study was to evaluate beliefs and perceptions of global warming among those living in poverty in the poorest counties in the southeastern United States. Results from this project may be used to support public health efforts to increase climate-related messaging to vulnerable and underserved communities. This was an ecological study that analyzed public opinion poll estimates from previously gathered national level survey data (2016). Responses to 5 questions related to beliefs, attitudes, and perceptions of global warming were evaluated. Counties below the national average poverty level (13.5%) were identified among 11 southeastern US states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia). Student t tests were used to compare public perceptions of global warming among the poorest urban and rural counties with national-level public opinion estimates. Overall, counties below the national poverty level in the southeastern US were significantly less likely to believe that global warming was happening compared with national-level estimates. The poorest rural counties were less likely to believe that global warming was happening than the poorest urban counties. Health care providers and public health leaders at regional and local levels are in ideal positions to raise awareness and advocate the health implications of climate change to decision makers for the benefit of helping underserved communities mitigate and adequately adapt to climate-related threats.}, }
@article {pmid29520061, year = {2018}, author = {Oostra, V and Saastamoinen, M and Zwaan, BJ and Wheat, CW}, title = {Strong phenotypic plasticity limits potential for evolutionary responses to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {1005}, pmid = {29520061}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity, the expression of multiple phenotypes from one genome, is a widespread adaptation to short-term environmental fluctuations, but whether it facilitates evolutionary adaptation to climate change remains contentious. Here, we investigate seasonal plasticity and adaptive potential in an Afrotropical butterfly expressing distinct phenotypes in dry and wet seasons. We assess the transcriptional architecture of plasticity in a full-factorial analysis of heritable and environmental effects across 72 individuals, and reveal pervasive gene expression differences between the seasonal phenotypes. Strikingly, intra-population genetic variation for plasticity is largely absent, consistent with specialisation to a particular environmental cue reliably predicting seasonal transitions. Under climate change, deteriorating accuracy of predictive cues will likely aggravate maladaptive phenotype-environment mismatches and increase selective pressures on reaction norms. However, the observed paucity of genetic variation for plasticity limits evolutionary responses, potentially weakening prospects for population persistence. Thus, seasonally plastic species may be especially vulnerable to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29518794, year = {2018}, author = {Hailes, O and Jones, R and Menkes, D and Freeman, J and Monasterio, E}, title = {Climate change, human health and the CPTPP.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {131}, number = {1471}, pages = {7-12}, pmid = {29518794}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; New Zealand ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid29517900, year = {2018}, author = {DaMatta, FM and Avila, RT and Cardoso, AA and Martins, SCV and Ramalho, JC}, title = {Physiological and Agronomic Performance of the Coffee Crop in the Context of Climate Change and Global Warming: A Review.}, journal = {Journal of agricultural and food chemistry}, volume = {66}, number = {21}, pages = {5264-5274}, doi = {10.1021/acs.jafc.7b04537}, pmid = {29517900}, issn = {1520-5118}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; Coffea/*growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Coffee ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Developing Countries ; Droughts ; Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Rain ; Sunlight ; }, abstract = {Coffee is one of the most important global crops and provides a livelihood to millions of people living in developing countries. Coffee species have been described as being highly sensitive to climate change, as largely deduced from modeling studies based on predictions of rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. Here, we discuss the physiological responses of the coffee tree in the context of present and ongoing climate changes, including drought, heat, and light stresses, and interactions between these factors. We also summarize recent insights on the physiological and agronomic performance of coffee at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and highlight the key role of CO2 in mitigating the harmful effects of heat stress. Evidence is shown suggesting that warming, per se, may be less harmful to coffee suitability than previously estimated, at least under the conditions of an adequate water supply. Finally, we discuss several mitigation strategies to improve crop performance in a changing world.}, }
@article {pmid29515617, year = {2018}, author = {Hatfield, JL and Dold, C}, title = {Agroclimatology and Wheat Production: Coping with Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {224}, pmid = {29515617}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Cereal production around the world is critical to the food supply for the human population. Crop productivity is primarily determined by a combination of temperature and precipitation because temperatures have to be in the range for plant growth and precipitation has to supply crop water requirements for a given environment. The question is often asked about the changes in productivity and what we can expect in the future and we evaluated the causes for variation in historical annual statewide wheat grain yields in Oklahoma, Kansas, and North Dakota across the Great Plains of United States. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is adapted to this area and we focused on production in these states from 1950 to 2016. This analysis used a framework for annual yields using yield gaps between attainable and actual yields and found the primary cause of the variation among years were attributable to inadequate precipitation during the grain-filling period. In Oklahoma, wheat yields were reduced when April and May precipitation was limited (r[2] = 0.70), while in Kansas, May precipitation was the dominant factor (r[2] = 0.78), and in North Dakota June-July precipitation was the factor explaining yield variation (r[2] = 0.65). Temperature varied among seasons and at the statewide level did not explain a significant portion of the yield variation. The pattern of increased variation in precipitation will cause further variation in wheat production across the Great Plains. Reducing yield variation among years will require adaptation practices that increase water availability to the crop coupled with the positive impact derived from other management practices, e.g., cultivars, fertilizer management, etc.}, }
@article {pmid29513753, year = {2018}, author = {Duku, C and Zwart, SJ and Hein, L}, title = {Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {e0192642}, pmid = {29513753}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods/trends ; Benin ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods/trends ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; Humidity ; Models, Biological ; *Tropical Climate ; Water/metabolism ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid29508312, year = {2018}, author = {Wheeler, N and Watts, N}, title = {Climate Change: From Science to Practice.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {170-178}, pmid = {29508312}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; Public Health Practice ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change poses a significant threat to human health. Understanding how climate science can be translated into public health practice is an essential first step in enabling robust adaptation and improving resiliency to climate change.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Recent research highlights the importance of iterative approaches to public health adaptation to climate change, enabling uncertainties of health impacts and barriers to adaptation to be accounted for. There are still significant barriers to adaptation, which are context-specific and thus present unique challenges to public health practice. The implementation of flexible adaptation approaches, using frameworks targeted for public health, is key to ensuring robust adaptation to climate change in public health practice. The BRACE framework provides an excellent approach for health adaptation to climate change. Combining this with the insights provided and by the adaptation pathways approach allows for more deliberate accounting of long-term uncertainties. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into public health practice and planning is important in facilitating this approach and overcoming the significant barriers to effective adaptation. Yet, the immediate and future limits to adaptation provide clear justification for urgent and accelerated efforts to mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29508194, year = {2018}, author = {Awais, M and Wajid, A and Saleem, MF and Nasim, W and Ahmad, A and Raza, MAS and Bashir, MU and Mubeen, M and Hammad, HM and Habib Ur Rahman, M and Saeed, U and Arshad, MN and Hussain, J}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {14}, pages = {13719-13730}, pmid = {29508194}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {117-3166-AV7-053)//Higher Education Commission, Pakistan/ ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Agricultural Irrigation ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Helianthus/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Pakistan ; Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop's yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha[-1]) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050.}, }
@article {pmid29508052, year = {2019}, author = {Nyssanbayeva, AS and Cherednichenko, AV and Cherednichenko, VS and Abayev, NN and Madibekov, AS}, title = {Bioclimatic conditions of the winter months in Western Kazakhstan and their dynamics in relation to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {63}, number = {5}, pages = {659-669}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-1513-7}, pmid = {29508052}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Climate Change/*history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Kazakhstan ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The territory of West Kazakhstan is an intensively developing region. The main oil and gas fields are concentrated there. In addition, this region is well-known as a region of nomad cattle breeding. Both of industry and agriculture demand a lot of employees, working in the open air in wintertime. Severe winter conditions, primary very low temperatures, and strong winds characterize the region. In this work, we calculated and analyzed the spatial and temporal distributions of effective temperatures in the region and their dynamics due to the global warming in the last decades. To calculate the equivalent temperature (WCET) was used the method of OFCM 2003. Nowadays, it is known as a common method for similar studies. It was shown that in the observed region, WCET is significantly lower than the ambient temperature. Repeatability of WCET, corresponding to «increasing risk», «high risk» is high in the main part of the region. Global warming in the region results in returning extremely high temperatures of the air, decreasing repeatability of the average gradation of WCET approximately on 4%, but there is no any visible changing repeatability of extreme WCET. Obtained results can be used for planning any construction work in the open air and agriculture branches.}, }
@article {pmid29500926, year = {2018}, author = {Asad, H and Carpenter, DO}, title = {Effects of climate change on the spread of zika virus: a public health threat.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {31-42}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2017-0042}, pmid = {29500926}, issn = {2191-0308}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Incidence ; *Public Health ; Zika Virus/physiology ; Zika Virus Infection/complications/*epidemiology/*transmission/virology ; }, abstract = {Zika is a vector-borne viral disease transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The increased climate instability has contributed to the emergence of infections carried by mosquitoes like dengue, chikungunya and zika. While infection with the zika virus is not new, the recent epidemic of microcephaly in Brazil and other countries in South America resulting from the infection of pregnant women with the zika virus raise a number of serious public health concerns. These include the question of how climate change affects the range of zika vectors, what can we do to shorten the length of mosquito season, how and why the symptoms of zika infection have changed and what can be done to reduce the burden of human disease from this infection? Another important question that needs to be answered is what are the factors that caused the zika virus to leave the non-human primates and/or other mammals and invade the human population?}, }
@article {pmid29499542, year = {2018}, author = {O'Driscoll, C and Ledesma, JLJ and Coll, J and Murnane, JG and Nolan, P and Mockler, EM and Futter, MN and Xiao, LW}, title = {Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {630}, number = {}, pages = {869-877}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.248}, pmid = {29499542}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Natural organic matter poses an increasing challenge to water managers because of its potential adverse impacts on water treatment and distribution, and subsequently human health. Projections were made of impacts of climate change on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the primarily agricultural Boyne catchment which is used as a potable water supply in Ireland. The results indicated that excluding a potential rise in extreme precipitation, future projected loads are not dissimilar to those observed under current conditions. This is because projected increases in DOC concentrations are offset by corresponding decreases in precipitation and hence river flow. However, the results presented assume no changes in land use and highlight the predicted increase in DOC loads from abstracted waters at water treatment plants.}, }
@article {pmid29499531, year = {2018}, author = {Ayanlade, A and Radeny, M and Morton, JF and Muchaba, T}, title = {Rainfall variability and drought characteristics in two agro-climatic zones: An assessment of climate change challenges in Africa.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {630}, number = {}, pages = {728-737}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.196}, pmid = {29499531}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This paper examines drought characteristics as an evidence of climate change in two agro-climatic zones of Nigeria and farmers' climate change perceptions of impacts and adaptation strategies. The results show high spatial and temporal rainfall variability for the stations. Consequently, there are several anomalies in rainfall in recent years but much more in the locations around the Guinea savanna. The inter-station and seasonality statistics reveal less variable and wetter early growing seasons and late growing seasons in the Rainforest zone, and more variable and drier growing seasons in other stations. The probability (p) of dry spells exceeding 3, 5 and 10 consecutive days is very high with 0.62≤p≥0.8 in all the stations, though, the p-values for 10day spells drop below 0.6 in Ibadan and Osogbo. The results further show that rainfall is much more reliable from the month of May until July with the coefficient of variance for rainy days <0.30, but less reliable in the months of March, August and October (CV-RD>0.30), though CV-RD appears higher in the month of August for all the stations. It is apparent that farmers' perceptions of drought fundamentally mirror climatic patterns from historical weather data. The study concludes that the adaptation facilities and equipment, hybrids of crops and animals are to be provided to farmers, at a subsidized price by the government, for them to cope with the current condition of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29499291, year = {2018}, author = {Khalifian, S and Rosenbach, M}, title = {Dermatology, climate change, and the perils of attacks on expertise.}, journal = {Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology}, volume = {79}, number = {2}, pages = {397-399}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaad.2018.02.054}, pmid = {29499291}, issn = {1097-6787}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Dermatology ; *Expert Testimony ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Physician's Role ; Politics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid29498787, year = {2018}, author = {Faleiro, FV and Nemésio, A and Loyola, R}, title = {Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {2272-2283}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14112}, pmid = {29498787}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees/*classification/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Male ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species' occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit with presence-absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict the effect of climate change on species and assembly level distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether predictions of presence-absence models can be used as a proxy to abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation. We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and project them into six climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance when the output of the models were continuous; results were very different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore, geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the ongoing debate of suitability-abundance models and can be used to support spatial conservation prioritization schemes and species triage in Atlantic Forest.}, }
@article {pmid29496379, year = {2018}, author = {Perotti, MG and Bonino, MF and Ferraro, D and Cruz, FB}, title = {How sensitive are temperate tadpoles to climate change? The use of thermal physiology and niche model tools to assess vulnerability.}, journal = {Zoology (Jena, Germany)}, volume = {127}, number = {}, pages = {95-105}, doi = {10.1016/j.zool.2018.01.002}, pmid = {29496379}, issn = {1873-2720}, mesh = {Animals ; Anura/*physiology ; Argentina ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; Chile ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Larva ; }, abstract = {Ectotherms are vulnerable to climate change, given their dependence on temperature, and amphibians are particularly interesting because of their complex life cycle. Tadpoles may regulate their body temperature by using suitable thermal microhabitats. Thus, their physiological responses are the result of adjustment to the local thermal limits experienced in their ponds. We studied three anuran tadpole species present in Argentina and Chile: Pleurodema thaul and Pleurodema bufoninum that are seasonal and have broad geographic ranges, and Batrachyla taeniata, a geographically restricted species with overwintering tadpoles. Species with restricted distribution are more susceptible to climate change than species with broader distribution that may cope with potential climatic changes in the environments in which they occur. We aim to test whether these species can buffer the potential effects of climate warming. We used ecological niche models and the outcomes of their thermal attributes (critical thermal limits, optimal temperature, and locomotor performance breadth) as empirical evidence of their capacity. We found that Pleurodema species show broader performance curves, related to their occurrence, while the geographically restricted B. taeniata shows a narrower thermal breadth, but is faster in warmer conditions. The modeled distributions and empirical physiological results suggest no severe threats for these three anurans. However, the risk level is increasing and a retraction of their distribution range might be possible for Pleurodema species, and some local population extinctions may happen, particularly for the narrowly distributed B. taeniata.}, }
@article {pmid29495656, year = {2018}, author = {Freije-Carrelo, L and Alonso Sobrado, L and Moldovan, M and Encinar, JR and García Alonso, JI}, title = {Isotope Dilution Mass Spectrometry for Highly Precise Determination of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon in Seawater Aiming at Climate Change Studies.}, journal = {Analytical chemistry}, volume = {90}, number = {7}, pages = {4677-4685}, doi = {10.1021/acs.analchem.7b05242}, pmid = {29495656}, issn = {1520-6882}, abstract = {Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is one of the most important parameters to be measured in seawaters for climate change studies. Its quantitative assessment requires analytical methodologies with overall uncertainties around 0.05% RSD for clear evaluation of temporal trends. Herein, two alternative isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IDMS) methodologies (online and species-specific) using an isotope ratio mass spectrometer (IRMS) and two calculation procedures for each methodology have been compared. As a result, a new method for the determination of DIC in seawaters, based on species-specific IDMS with isotope pattern deconvolution calculation, was developed and validated. A [13]C-enriched bicarbonate tracer was added to the sample and, after equilibration and acidification, the isotope abundances at CO2 masses 44, 45, and 46 were measured on an IRMS instrument. Notably, early spiking allows correcting for evaporations and/or adsorptions during sample preparation and storage and could be carried out immediately after sampling. Full uncertainty budgets were calculated taking into account all the factors involved in the determination (initial weights, concentration and isotope abundances of standards, and final IRMS measurements). The average DIC value obtained for CRM seawater agreed very well with the certified value. Propagated precision obtained ranged from 0.035 to 0.050% RSD for individual sample triplicates. Reproducibility, assessed by three independent experiments carried out in different working days, was excellent as well (-0.01% and 0.057%, error and full combined uncertainty, respectively). Additionally, the approach proposed improves on established methods by simplicity, higher throughput (15 min per sample), and lower volume requirements (10 mL).}, }
@article {pmid29494979, year = {2018}, author = {Tra, TV and Thinh, NX and Greiving, S}, title = {Combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment for the hydrological system in the Vu Gia- Thu Bon River Basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {630}, number = {}, pages = {718-727}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.250}, pmid = {29494979}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Vu Gia- Thu Bon (VGTB) River Basin, located in the Central Coastal zone of Viet Nam currently faces water shortage. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the challenge. Therefore, there is a need to study the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the river basin. The study adopts a combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment to address the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the VGTB River Basin. A MIKE BASIN water balance model for the river basin was established to simulate the response of the hydrological system. Simulations were performed through parametrically varying temperature and precipitation to determine the vulnerability space of water shortage. General Circulation Models (GCMs) were then utilized to provide climate projections for the river basin. The output from GCMs was then mapped onto the vulnerability space determined earlier. In total, 9 out of 55 water demand nodes in the simulation are expected to face problematic conditions as future climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid29494978, year = {2018}, author = {Du, J and Shen, J and Park, K and Wang, YP and Yu, X}, title = {Worsened physical condition due to climate change contributes to the increasing hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {630}, number = {}, pages = {707-717}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.265}, pmid = {29494978}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {There are increasing concerns about the impact of worsened physical condition on hypoxia in a variety of coastal systems, especially considering the influence of changing climate. In this study, an EOF analysis of the DO data for 1985-2012, a long-term numerical simulation of vertical exchange, and statistical analysis were applied to understand the underlying mechanisms for the variation of DO condition in Chesapeake Bay. Three types of analysis consistently demonstrated that both biological and physical conditions contribute equally to seasonal and interannual variations of the hypoxic condition in Chesapeake Bay. We found the physical condition (vertical exchange+temperature) determines the spatial and seasonal pattern of the hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. The EOF analysis showed that the first mode, which was highly related to the physical forcings and correlated with the summer hypoxia volume, can be well explained by seasonal and interannual variations of physical variables and biological activities, while the second mode is significantly correlated with the estuarine circulation and river discharge. The weakened vertical exchange and increased water temperature since the 1980s demonstrated a worsened physical condition over the past few decades. Under changing climate (e.g., warming, accelerated sea-level rise, altered precipitation and wind patterns), Chesapeake Bay is likely to experience a worsened physical condition, which will amplify the negative impact of anthropogenic inputs on eutrophication and consequently require more efforts for nutrient reduction to improve the water quality condition in Chesapeake Bay.}, }
@article {pmid29494602, year = {2018}, author = {Xu, Y and Wang, S and Bai, X and Shu, D and Tian, Y}, title = {Runoff response to climate change and human activities in a typical karst watershed, SW China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {e0193073}, pmid = {29494602}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Hydrology/methods ; Natural Resources ; Rain ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {This study aims to reveal the runoff variation characteristics of long time series in a karst region, analyse comprehensively its different driving factors, and estimate quantitatively the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to net runoff variation. Liudong river basin, a typical karst watershed in southwest China, is the study site. Statistical methods, such as linear fitting, the Morlet wavelet analysis, normalized curve and double mass curve, are applied to analyse the runoff of the watershed. Results show that the runoff in the karst watershed during the research period exhibits a three-stage change and the abrupt change points are the years 1981 and 2007: (1) 1968-1980, the runoff initially exhibited a trend of sustained decreasing and then an abrupt fluctuation. The runoff was obviously destroyed through precipitation-producing processes. Improper land utilisation and serious forest and grass destruction intensified the fluctuation variation amplitude of the runoff. (2) 1981-2006, the changing processes of runoff and precipitation exhibited good synchronism. Precipitation significantly affected runoff variation and human activities had a slight interference degree. (3) 2007-2013, the fluctuation range of runoff was considerably smaller than that of precipitation. The significant growth of forest and grassland areas and the increase in water consumption mitigated runoff fluctuation and greatly diminished runoff variation amplitude. According to calculation, the relative contribution rates of precipitation and human activities to net runoff variation with 1981-2007 as the reference period were -81% and 181% in average, respectively, during 1968-1980, and -117% and 217% in average, respectively, during 2007-2013. In general, the analysis of runoff variation trend and of the contribution rate of its main influencing factors in the typical karst watershed for nearly half a century may be significant to solve the drought problem in the karst region and for the sustainable development of the drainage basin.}, }
@article {pmid29494310, year = {2018}, author = {Assunção, R and Martins, C and Viegas, S and Viegas, C and Jakobsen, LS and Pires, S and Alvito, P}, title = {Climate change and the health impact of aflatoxins exposure in Portugal - an overview.}, journal = {Food additives &amp; contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, analysis, control, exposure &amp; risk assessment}, volume = {35}, number = {8}, pages = {1610-1621}, doi = {10.1080/19440049.2018.1447691}, pmid = {29494310}, issn = {1944-0057}, mesh = {Aflatoxins/administration &amp; dosage/adverse effects/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Dietary Exposure/adverse effects/*analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; Food Contamination/*analysis ; *Food Safety ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Humans ; Mycotoxins/administration &amp; dosage/adverse effects/*analysis ; Portugal ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been indicated as a driver for food safety issues worldwide, mainly due to the impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of food chain. Mycotoxins, natural contaminants produced by fungi, are among the most important of such hazards. Aflatoxins, which have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins, assume particular importance. A recent study predicted aflatoxin contamination in maize and wheat crops in Europe within the next 100 years and aflatoxin B1 is predicted to become a food safety issue in Europe, especially in the most probable scenario of climate change (+2°C). This review discusses the potential influence of climate change on the health risk associated to aflatoxins dietary exposure of Portuguese population. We estimated the burden of disease associated to the current aflatoxin exposure for Portuguese population in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). It is expected that in the future the number of DALYs and the associated cases of hepatocellular carcinoma due to aflatoxins exposure will increase due to climate change. The topics highlighted through this review, including the potential impact on health of the Portuguese population through the dietary exposure to aflatoxins, should represent an alert for the potential consequences of an incompletely explored perspective of climate change. Politics and decision-makers should be involved and committed to implement effective measures to deal with climate change issues and to reduce its possible consequences. This review constitutes a contribution for the prioritisation of strategies to face the unequal burden of effects of weather-related hazards in Portugal and across Europe.}, }
@article {pmid29493611, year = {2018}, author = {Bai, X and Dawson, RJ and Ürge-Vorsatz, D and Delgado, GC and Salisu Barau, A and Dhakal, S and Dodman, D and Leonardsen, L and Masson-Delmotte, V and Roberts, DC and Schultz, S}, title = {Six research priorities for cities and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {555}, number = {7694}, pages = {23-25}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-02409-z}, pmid = {29493611}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid29492692, year = {2018}, author = {Layton-Matthews, K and Ozgul, A and Griesser, M}, title = {The interacting effects of forestry and climate change on the demography of a group-living bird population.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {186}, number = {4}, pages = {907-918}, pmid = {29492692}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Forestry ; Forests ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats is a global driver of wildlife population declines. Local population responses to such environmental perturbations are generally well understood, but in socially structured populations, interactions between environmental and social factors may influence population responses. Thus, understanding how habitat degradation affects the dynamics of these populations requires simultaneous consideration of social and environmental mechanisms underlying demographic responses. Here we investigated the effect of habitat degradation through commercial forestry on spatiotemporal dynamics of a group-living bird, the Siberian jay, Perisoreus infaustus, in boreal forests of northern Sweden. We assessed the interacting effects of forestry, climate and population density on stage-specific, seasonal life-history rates and population dynamics, using long-term, individual-based demographic data from 70 territories in natural and managed forests. Stage-specific survival and reproductive rates, and consequently population growth, were lower in managed forests than in natural forests. Population growth was most sensitive to breeder survival and was more sensitive to early dispersing juveniles than those delaying dispersal. Forestry decreased population growth in managed forests by reducing reproductive success and breeder survival. Increased snow depth improved winter survival, and warmer spring temperatures enhanced reproductive success, particularly in natural forests. Population growth was stable in natural forests but it was declining in managed forests, and this difference accelerated under forecasted climate scenarios. Thus, climatic change could exacerbate the rate of forestry-induced population decline through reduced snow cover in our study species, and in other species with similar life-history characteristics and habitat requirements.}, }
@article {pmid29492011, year = {2017}, author = {Santoro, S and Sanchez-Suarez, C and Rouco, C and Palomo, LJ and Fernández, MC and Kufner, MB and Moreno, S}, title = {Long-term data from a small mammal community reveal loss of diversity and potential effects of local climate change.}, journal = {Current zoology}, volume = {63}, number = {5}, pages = {515-523}, pmid = {29492011}, issn = {1674-5507}, abstract = {Climate change affects distribution and persistence of species. However, forecasting species' responses to these changes requires long-term data series that are often lacking in ecological studies. We used 15 years of small mammal trapping data collected between 1978 and 2015 in 3 areas at Doñana National Park (southwest Spain) to (i) describe changes in species composition and (ii) test the association between local climate conditions and size of small mammal populations. Overall, 5 species were captured: wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus, algerian mouse Mus spretus, greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula, garden dormouse Eliomys quercinus, and black rat Rattus rattus. The temporal pattern in the proportion of captures of each species suggests that the small mammal diversity declined with time. Although the larger species (e.g., E. quercinus), better adapted to colder climate, have disappeared from our trapping records, M. spretus, a small species inhabiting southwest Europe and the Mediterranean coast of Africa, currently is almost the only trapped species. We used 2-level hierarchical models to separate changes in abundance from changes in probability of capture using records of A. sylvaticus in all 3 areas and of M. spretus in 1. We found that heavy rainfall and low temperatures were positively related to abundance of A. sylvaticus, and that the number of extremely hot days was negatively related to abundance of M. spretus. Despite other mechanisms are likely to be involved, our findings support the importance of climate for the distribution and persistence of these species and raise conservation concerns about potential cascading effects in the Doñana ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid29489853, year = {2018}, author = {Dittbrenner, BJ and Pollock, MM and Schilling, JW and Olden, JD and Lawler, JJ and Torgersen, CE}, title = {Modeling intrinsic potential for beaver (Castor canadensis) habitat to inform restoration and climate change adaptation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {e0192538}, pmid = {29489853}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Rivers ; Rodentia/*physiology ; Washington ; }, abstract = {Through their dam-building activities and subsequent water storage, beaver have the potential to restore riparian ecosystems and offset some of the predicted effects of climate change by modulating streamflow. Thus, it is not surprising that reintroducing beaver to watersheds from which they have been extirpated is an often-used restoration and climate-adaptation strategy. Identifying sites for reintroduction, however, requires detailed information about habitat factors-information that is not often available at broad spatial scales. Here we explore the potential for beaver relocation throughout the Snohomish River Basin in Washington, USA with a model that identifies some of the basic building blocks of beaver habitat suitability and does so by relying solely on remotely sensed data. More specifically, we developed a generalized intrinsic potential model that draws on remotely sensed measures of stream gradient, stream width, and valley width to identify where beaver could become established if suitable vegetation were to be present. Thus, the model serves as a preliminary screening tool that can be applied over relatively large extents. We applied the model to 5,019 stream km and assessed the ability of the model to correctly predict beaver habitat by surveying for beavers in 352 stream reaches. To further assess the potential for relocation, we assessed land ownership, use, and land cover in the landscape surrounding stream reaches with varying levels of intrinsic potential. Model results showed that 33% of streams had moderate or high intrinsic potential for beaver habitat. We found that no site that was classified as having low intrinsic potential had any sign of beavers and that beaver were absent from nearly three quarters of potentially suitable sites, indicating that there are factors preventing the local population from occupying these areas. Of the riparian areas around streams with high intrinsic potential for beaver, 38% are on public lands and 17% are on large tracts of privately-owned timber land. Thus, although there are a large number of areas that could be suitable for relocation and restoration using beavers, current land use patterns may substantially limit feasibility in these areas.}, }
@article {pmid29489817, year = {2018}, author = {Monahan, WB and Theobald, DM}, title = {Climate change adaptation benefits of potential conservation partnerships.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {e0191468}, pmid = {29489817}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {We evaluate the world terrestrial network of protected areas (PAs) for its partnership potential in responding to climate change. That is, if a PA engaged in collaborative, trans-boundary management of species, by investing in conservation partnerships with neighboring areas, what climate change adaptation benefits might accrue? We consider core tenets of conservation biology related to protecting large areas with high environmental heterogeneity and low climate change velocity and ask how a series of biodiversity adaptation indicators change across spatial scales encompassing potential PA and non-PA partners. Less than 1% of current world terrestrial PAs equal or exceed the size of established and successful conservation partnerships. Partnering at this scale would increase the biodiversity adaptation indicators by factors up to two orders of magnitude, compared to a null model in which each PA is isolated. Most partnership area surrounding PAs is comprised of non-PAs (70%), indicating the importance of looking beyond the current network of PAs when promoting climate change adaptation. Given monumental challenges with PA-based species conservation in the face of climate change, partnerships provide a logical and achievable strategy for helping areas adapt. Our findings identify where strategic partnering efforts in highly vulnerable areas of the world may prove critical in safeguarding biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid29488260, year = {2018}, author = {Carter, NH and Bouley, P and Moore, S and Poulos, M and Bouyer, J and Pimm, SL}, title = {Climate change, disease range shifts, and the future of the Africa lion.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {32}, number = {5}, pages = {1207-1210}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.13102}, pmid = {29488260}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Africa ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Lions ; }, }
@article {pmid29486443, year = {2018}, author = {Fereidoon, M and Koch, M}, title = {SWAT-MODSIM-PSO optimization of multi-crop planning in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran, under the impacts of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {630}, number = {}, pages = {502-516}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.234}, pmid = {29486443}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation/*methods ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Hydrology ; Iran ; Models, Theoretical ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Agriculture is one of the environmental/economic sectors that may adversely be affected by climate change, especially, in already nowadays water-scarce regions, like the Middle East. One way to cope with future changes in absolute as well as seasonal (irrigation) water amounts can be the adaptation of the agricultural crop pattern in a region, i.e. by planting crops which still provide high yields and so economic benefits to farmers under such varying climate conditions. To do this properly, the whole cascade starting from climate change, effects on hydrology and surface water availability, subsequent effects on crop yield, agricultural areas available, and, finally, economic value of a multi-crop cultivation pattern must be known. To that avail, a complex coupled simulation-optimization tool SWAT-LINGO-MODSIM-PSO (SLMP) has been developed here and used to find the future optimum cultivation area of crops for the maximization of the economic benefits in five irrigation-fed agricultural plains in the south of the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) southwest Iran. Starting with the SWAT distributed hydrological model, the KR-streamflow as well as the inflow into the Karkheh-reservoir, as the major storage of irrigation water, is calibrated and validated, based on 1985-2004 observed discharge data. In the subsequent step, the SWAT-predicted streamflow is fed into the MODSIM river basin Decision Support System to simulate and optimize the water allocation between different water users (agricultural, environmental, municipal and industrial) under standard operating policy (SOP) rules. The final step is the maximization of the economic benefit in the five agricultural plains through constrained PSO (particle swarm optimization) by adjusting the cultivation areas (decision variables) of different crops (wheat, barley, maize and "others"), taking into account their specific prizes and optimal crop yields under water deficiency, with the latter computed in the LINGO-sub-optimization module embedded in the SLMP-tool. For the optimization of the agricultural benefits in the KRB in the near future (2038-2060), quantile-mapping (QM) bias-corrected downscaled predictors for daily precipitation and temperatures of the HadGEM2-ES GCM-model under RCP4.5- and RCP8.5-emission scenarios are used as climate drivers in the streamflow- and crop yield simulations of the SWAT-model, leading to corresponding changes in the final outcome (economic benefit) of the SLMP-tool. In fact, whereas for the historical period (1985-2004) a total annual benefit of 94.2 million US$ for all multi-crop areas in KRB is computed, there is a decrease to 88.3 million US$ and 72.1 million US$ for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, in the near future (2038-2060) prediction period. In fact, this future income decrease is due to a substantial shift from cultivation areas devoted nowadays to high-price wheat and barley in the winter season to low-price maize-covered areas in the future summers, owing to a future seasonal change of SWAT-predicted irrigation water available, i.e. less in the winter and more in the summer.}, }
@article {pmid29485725, year = {2018}, author = {Zhan, J and Ericson, L and Burdon, JJ}, title = {Climate change accelerates local disease extinction rates in a long-term wild host-pathogen association.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {3526-3536}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14111}, pmid = {29485725}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Basidiomycota/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Extinction, Biological ; Filipendula/*microbiology ; Global Warming ; *Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {Pathogens are a significant component of all plant communities. In recent years, the potential for existing and emerging pathogens of agricultural crops to cause increased yield losses as a consequence of changing climatic patterns has raised considerable concern. In contrast, the response of naturally occurring, endemic pathogens to a warming climate has received little attention. Here, we report on the impact of a signature variable of global climate change - increasing temperature - on the long-term epidemiology of a natural host-pathogen association involving the rust pathogen Triphragmium ulmariae and its host plant Filipendula ulmaria. In a host-pathogen metapopulation involving approximately 230 host populations growing on an archipelago of islands in the Gulf of Bothnia we assessed changes in host population size and pathogen epidemiological measures over a 25-year period. We show how the incidence of disease and its severity declines over that period and most importantly demonstrate a positive association between a long-term trend of increasing extinction rates in individual pathogen populations of the metapopulation and increasing temperature. Our results are highly suggestive that changing climatic patterns, particularly mean monthly growing season (April-November) temperature, are markedly influencing the epidemiology of plant disease in this host-pathogen association. Given the important role plant pathogens have in shaping the structure of communities, changes in the epidemiology of pathogens have potentially far-reaching impacts on ecological and evolutionary processes. For these reasons, it is essential to increase understanding of pathogen epidemiology, its response to warming, and to invoke these responses in forecasts for the future.}, }
@article {pmid29483522, year = {2018}, author = {Yin, K and Hong, H and Algeo, TJ and Churchman, GJ and Li, Z and Zhu, Z and Fang, Q and Zhao, L and Wang, C and Ji, K and Lei, W and Duan, Z}, title = {Fe-oxide mineralogy of the Jiujiang red earth sediments and implications for Quaternary climate change, southern China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {3610}, pmid = {29483522}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Diffuse reflectance spectrophotometry (DRS) is a new, fast, and reliable method to characterize Fe-oxides in soils. The Fe-oxide mineralogy of the Jiujiang red earth sediments was investigated using DRS to investigate the climate evolution of southern China since the mid-Pleistocene. The DRS results show that hematite/(hematite + goethite) ratios [Hm/(Hm + Gt)] exhibit an upward decreasing trend within the Jiujiang section, suggesting a gradual climate change from warm and humid in the middle Pleistocene to cooler and drier in the late Pleistocene. Upsection trends toward higher (orthoclase + plagioclase)/quartz ratios [(Or + Pl)/Q] and magnetic susceptibility values (χlf) support this inference, which accords with global climate trends at that time. However, higher-frequency climatic subcycles observed in loess sections of northern China are not evident in the Jiujiang records, indicating a relatively lower climate sensitivity of the red earth sediments in southern China.}, }
@article {pmid29482093, year = {2018}, author = {Benjankar, R and Tonina, D and McKean, JA and Sohrabi, MM and Chen, Q and Vidergar, D}, title = {Dam operations may improve aquatic habitat and offset negative effects of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {213}, number = {}, pages = {126-134}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.02.066}, pmid = {29482093}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Hydrology ; Idaho ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Dam operation impacts on stream hydraulics and ecological processes are well documented, but their effect depends on geographical regions and varies spatially and temporally. Many studies have quantified their effects on aquatic ecosystem based mostly on flow hydraulics overlooking stream water temperature and climatic conditions. Here, we used an integrated modeling framework, an ecohydraulics virtual watershed, that links catchment hydrology, hydraulics, stream water temperature and aquatic habitat models to test the hypothesis that reservoir management may help to mitigate some impacts caused by climate change on downstream flows and temperature. To address this hypothesis we applied the model to analyze the impact of reservoir operation (regulated flows) on Bull Trout, a cold water obligate salmonid, habitat, against unregulated flows for dry, average, and wet climatic conditions in the South Fork Boise River (SFBR), Idaho, USA.}, }
@article {pmid29482066, year = {2018}, author = {Reyna-Bensusan, N and Wilson, DC and Smith, SR}, title = {Uncontrolled burning of solid waste by households in Mexico is a significant contributor to climate change in the country.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {163}, number = {}, pages = {280-288}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.01.042}, pmid = {29482066}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Fires ; Humans ; Mexico ; *Refuse Disposal ; *Solid Waste ; }, abstract = {Uncontrolled burning of municipal solid waste (MSW) is an important source of air pollution and is wide spread in many developing countries, but only limited data quantify the extent of domestic open burning of household waste. Here, we present some of the first field data to be reported on the uncontrolled domestic burning of waste. A representative community of Mexico (Huejutla de Reyes Municipality) was investigated and household surveys, interviews with waste operators and a waste characterisation analysis were completed to assess the extent of, and factors controlling, the open burning of waste. Waste collection provision to rural communities was very limited and, consequently 92% of households in rural areas reported that they disposed of waste by uncontrolled burning in backyards or unofficial dumps. Overall, 24% of the total MSW generated in the Municipality was disposed by uncontrolled burning. Urban and periurban areas received twice-weekly collections and the rate of uncontrolled burning was considerably smaller compared to rural households, corresponding to approximately 2% of total waste generation. Carbon equivalency calculations showed that burning waste in backyards represented approximately 6% of the total and 8.5% of fuel related CO2Eq emissions by the municipality. Moreover, the equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2Eq) from black carbon (BC) emitted by uncontrolled burning in backyards was over fifteen times larger compared to methane (CH4) potentially released from equivalent amounts of combustible biodegradable waste disposal at the official dumpsite. An assessment of local respiratory health data showed the incidence of disease was higher in rural than in urban areas, when the opposite trend is typically observed in the international literature; given the high rate of burning activity found in rural areas we suggest that open burning of waste could be a major reason for the apparent poorer respiratory health status of the rural population and requires further investigation. The results emphasise the importance of including BC from uncontrolled burning of waste in international emission inventories of greenhouse gases and in the assessment of the health status of local communities in developing countries where this practice is prevalent.}, }
@article {pmid29479693, year = {2018}, author = {Mitchell, D and Snelling, EP and Hetem, RS and Maloney, SK and Strauss, WM and Fuller, A}, title = {Revisiting concepts of thermal physiology: Predicting responses of mammals to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {87}, number = {4}, pages = {956-973}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12818}, pmid = {29479693}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Mammals/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The accuracy of predictive models (also known as mechanistic or causal models) of animal responses to climate change depends on properly incorporating the principles of heat transfer and thermoregulation into those models. Regrettably, proper incorporation of these principles is not always evident. We have revisited the relevant principles of thermal physiology and analysed how they have been applied in predictive models of large mammals, which are particularly vulnerable, to climate change. We considered dry heat exchange, evaporative heat transfer, the thermoneutral zone and homeothermy, and we examined the roles of size and shape in the thermal physiology of large mammals. We report on the following misconceptions in influential predictive models: underestimation of the role of radiant heat transfer, misassignment of the role and misunderstanding of the sustainability of evaporative cooling, misinterpretation of the thermoneutral zone as a zone of thermal tolerance or as a zone of sustainable energetics, confusion of upper critical temperature and critical thermal maximum, overestimation of the metabolic energy cost of evaporative cooling, failure to appreciate that the current advantages of size and shape will become disadvantageous as climate change advances, misassumptions about skin temperature and, lastly, misconceptions about the relationship between body core temperature and its variability with body mass in large mammals. Not all misconceptions invalidate the models, but we believe that preventing inappropriate assumptions from propagating will improve model accuracy, especially as models progress beyond their current typically static format to include genetic and epigenetic adaptation that can result in phenotypic plasticity.}, }
@article {pmid29478885, year = {2018}, author = {Lieske, DJ and Lloyd, VK}, title = {Combining public participatory surveillance and occupancy modelling to predict the distributional response of Ixodes scapularis to climate change.}, journal = {Ticks and tick-borne diseases}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {695-706}, doi = {10.1016/j.ttbdis.2018.01.018}, pmid = {29478885}, issn = {1877-9603}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; Borrelia burgdorferi ; Canada/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Community Participation/methods ; Dog Diseases/blood/epidemiology/parasitology ; Dogs ; Epidemiological Monitoring/*veterinary ; Humans ; Ixodes/*physiology ; Lyme Disease/blood/epidemiology/microbiology/*veterinary ; *Models, Statistical ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Ixodes scapularis, a known vector of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (Bbss), is undergoing range expansion in many parts of Canada. The province of New Brunswick, which borders jurisdictions with established populations of I. scapularis, constitutes a range expansion zone for this species. To better understand the current and potential future distribution of this tick under climate change projections, this study applied occupancy modelling to distributional records of adult ticks that successfully overwintered, obtained through passive surveillance. This study indicates that I. scapularis occurs throughout the southern-most portion of the province, in close proximity to coastlines and major waterways. Milder winter conditions, as indicated by the number of degree days <0 °C, was determined to be a strong predictor of tick occurrence, as was, to a lesser degree, rising levels of annual precipitation, leading to a final model with a predictive accuracy of 0.845 (range: 0.828-0.893). Both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate projections predict that a significant proportion of the province (roughly a quarter to a third) will be highly suitable for I. scapularis by the 2080s. Comparison with cases of canine infection show good spatial agreement with baseline model predictions, but the presence of canine Borrelia infections beyond the climate envelope, defined by the highest probabilities of tick occurrence, suggest the presence of Bbss-carrying ticks distributed by long-range dispersal events. This research demonstrates that predictive statistical modelling of multi-year surveillance information is an efficient way to identify areas where I. scapularis is most likely to occur, and can be used to guide subsequent active sampling efforts in order to better understand fine scale species distributional patterns.}, }
@article {pmid29478630, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, R and Kalin, L}, title = {Combined and synergistic effects of climate change and urbanization on water quality in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {64}, number = {}, pages = {107-121}, doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2016.11.021}, pmid = {29478630}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {Alabama ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Seasons ; Urbanization/*trends ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; Water Pollution, Chemical/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {This study investigated potential changes in flow, total suspended solid (TSS) and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) loadings under future climate change, land use/cover (LULC) change and combined change scenarios in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama, USA. Four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES) of greenhouse gas were used to assess the future climate change (2016-2040). Three projected LULC maps (2030) were employed to reflect different extents of urbanization in future. The individual, combined and synergistic impacts of LULC and climate change on water quantity/quality were analyzed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Under the "climate change only" scenario, monthly distribution and projected variation of TSS are expected to follow a pattern similar to streamflow. Nutrients are influenced both by flow and management practices. The variation of Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorous (TP) generally follow the flow trend as well. No evident difference in the N:P ratio was projected. Under the "LULC change only" scenario, TN was projected to decrease, mainly due to the shrinkage of croplands. TP will increase in fall and winter. The N:P ratio shows a strong decreasing potential. Under the "combined change" scenario, LULC and climate change effect were considered simultaneously. Results indicate that if future loadings are expected to increase/decrease under any individual scenario, then the combined change will intensify that trend. Conversely, if their effects are in opposite directions, an offsetting effect occurs. Science-based management practices are needed to reduce nutrient loadings to the Bay.}, }
@article {pmid29478182, year = {2018}, author = {Hoang, LP and Biesbroek, R and Tri, VPD and Kummu, M and van Vliet, MTH and Leemans, R and Kabat, P and Ludwig, F}, title = {Managing flood risks in the Mekong Delta: How to address emerging challenges under climate change and socioeconomic developments.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {47}, number = {6}, pages = {635-649}, pmid = {29478182}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disaster Planning ; *Floods ; Risk ; Risk Management ; }, abstract = {Climate change and accelerating socioeconomic developments increasingly challenge flood-risk management in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta-a typical large, economically dynamic and highly vulnerable delta. This study identifies and addresses the emerging challenges for flood-risk management. Furthermore, we identify and analyse response solutions, focusing on meaningful configurations of the individual solutions and how they can be tailored to specific challenges using expert surveys, content analysis techniques and statistical inferences. Our findings show that the challenges for flood-risk management are diverse, but critical challenges predominantly arise from the current governance and institutional settings. The top-three challenges include weak collaboration, conflicting management objectives and low responsiveness to new issues. We identified 114 reported solutions and developed six flood management strategies that are tailored to specific challenges. We conclude that the current technology-centric flood management approach is insufficient given the rapid socioecological changes. This approach therefore should be adapted towards a more balanced management configuration where technical and infrastructural measures are combined with institutional and governance resolutions. Insights from this study contribute to the emerging repertoire of contemporary flood management solutions, especially through their configurations and tailoring to specific challenges.}, }
@article {pmid29472598, year = {2018}, author = {Kukal, MS and Irmak, S}, title = {Climate-Driven Crop Yield and Yield Variability and Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. Great Plains Agricultural Production.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {3450}, pmid = {29472598}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation/*trends ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production/*trends ; Edible Grain/growth &amp; development ; Sorghum/*growth &amp; development ; Glycine max/*growth &amp; development ; United States ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate variability and trends affect global crop yields and are characterized as highly dependent on location, crop type, and irrigation. U.S. Great Plains, due to its significance in national food production, evident climate variability, and extensive irrigation is an ideal region of investigation for climate impacts on food production. This paper evaluates climate impacts on maize, sorghum, and soybean yields and effect of irrigation for individual counties in this region by employing extensive crop yield and climate datasets from 1968-2013. Variability in crop yields was a quarter of the regional average yields, with a quarter of this variability explained by climate variability, and temperature and precipitation explained these in singularity or combination at different locations. Observed temperature trend was beneficial for maize yields, but detrimental for sorghum and soybean yields, whereas observed precipitation trend was beneficial for all three crops. Irrigated yields demonstrated increased robustness and an effective mitigation strategy against climate impacts than their non-irrigated counterparts by a considerable fraction. The information, data, and maps provided can serve as an assessment guide for planners, managers, and policy- and decision makers to prioritize agricultural resilience efforts and resource allocation or re-allocation in the regions that exhibit risk from climate variability.}, }
@article {pmid29471190, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, J and Zhang, X and Li, D and Yang, Y and Zhong, J and Wang, Y and Che, H and Che, H and Zhang, Y}, title = {Interdecadal changes of summer aerosol pollution in the Yangtze River Basin of China, the relative influence of meteorological conditions and the relation to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {630}, number = {}, pages = {46-52}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.236}, pmid = {29471190}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Winter is a season of much concern for aerosol pollution in China, but less concern for pollution in the summertime. There are even less concern and larger uncertainty about interdecadal changes in summer aerosol pollution, relative influence of meteorological conditions, and their links to climate change. Here we try to reveal the relation among interdecadal changes in summer's most important circulation system affecting China (East Asian Summer Monsoon-EASM), an index of meteorological conditions (called PLAM, Parameter Linking Air Quality and Meteorological Elements, which is almost linearly related with aerosol pollution), and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (M-LYR) in central eastern China during summertime since the 1960's. During the weak monsoon years, the aerosol pollution load was heavier in the M-LYR and opposite in the strong monsoon years mainly influenced by EASM and associated maintenance position of the anti-Hadley cell around 115°E. The interdecadal changes in meteorological conditions and their associated aerosol pollution in the context of such climate change have experienced four periods since the 1960's, which were a relatively large decreased period from 1961 to 1980, a large rise between 1980 and 1999, a period of slow rise or maintenance from 1999 to 2006, and a relatively rapid rise between 2006 and 2014. Among later three pollution increased periods, about 51%, 25% and 60% of the aerosol pollution change respectively come from the contribution of worsening weather conditions, which are found to be greatly affected by changes in EASM.}, }
@article {pmid29468779, year = {2018}, author = {DeWeber, JT and Wagner, T}, title = {Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {2735-2748}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14101}, pmid = {29468779}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Models, Biological ; Rivers/chemistry ; Trout/*physiology ; Uncertainty ; United States ; }, abstract = {Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30-day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species' distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold-water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid-century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our study demonstrates that even relatively small differences in the definitions of climate metrics can result in very different projections and reveal high uncertainty in predicted climate change effects.}, }
@article {pmid29468028, year = {2018}, author = {Yuan, Z and Liu, D and Keesing, JK and Zhao, M and Guo, S and Peng, Y and Zhang, H}, title = {Paleoecological evidence for decadal increase in phytoplankton biomass off northwestern Australia in response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {2097-2107}, pmid = {29468028}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Ocean warming can modify the phytoplankton biomass on decadal scales. Significant increases in sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall in the northwest of Australia over recent decades are attributed to climate change. Here, we used four biomarker proxies (TEX86 index, long-chain n-alkanes, brassicasterol, and dinosterol) to reconstruct approximately 60-year variations of SST, terrestrial input, and diatom and dinoflagellate biomass in the coastal waters of the remote Kimberley region. The results showed that the most significant increases in SST and terrestrial input occurred since 1997, accompanied by an abrupt increase in diatom and dinoflagellate biomasses. Compared with the results before 1997, the average TEX86H temperature during 1997-2011 increased approximately 1°C, rainfall increased 248.2 mm, brassicasterol and dinosterol contents increased 8.5 and 1.7 times. Principal component analysis indicated that the warming SST played a more important role in the phytoplankton increase than increased rainfall and river discharge.}, }
@article {pmid29467262, year = {2018}, author = {Howard, C and Stephens, PA and Tobias, JA and Sheard, C and Butchart, SHM and Willis, SG}, title = {Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {285}, number = {1873}, pages = {}, pmid = {29467262}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Animal Migration/physiology ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Flight, Animal ; Models, Biological ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range potential and migratory refuelling requirements to simulate the number of stopovers required and the duration of current migratory journeys for 77 bird species breeding in Europe. Using tracking data, we show that our estimates accord with recorded journey times and stopovers for most species. We then combine projections of altered migratory distances under climate change with models of avian flight to predict future migratory journeys. We find that 37% of migratory journeys undertaken by long-distance migrants will necessitate an additional stopover in future. These greater distances and the increased number of stops will substantially increase overall journey durations of many long-distance migratory species, a factor not currently considered in climate impact studies.}, }
@article {pmid29466143, year = {2018}, author = {Macpherson, CC}, title = {Bringing Values, Relationships, Environments, and Climate Change to Policy Deliberations.}, journal = {The American journal of bioethics : AJOB}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {63-65}, doi = {10.1080/15265161.2017.1420835}, pmid = {29466143}, issn = {1536-0075}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Freedom ; Humans ; Morals ; Social Responsibility ; }, }
@article {pmid29463723, year = {2018}, author = {Sun, F and Roderick, ML and Farquhar, GD}, title = {Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {10}, pages = {2305-2310}, pmid = {29463723}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {There is a growing research interest in the detection of changes in hydrologic and climatic time series. Stationarity can be assessed using the autocorrelation function, but this is not yet common practice in hydrology and climate. Here, we use a global land-based gridded annual precipitation (hereafter P) database (1940-2009) and find that the lag 1 autocorrelation coefficient is statistically significant at around 14% of the global land surface, implying nonstationary behavior (90% confidence). In contrast, around 76% of the global land surface shows little or no change, implying stationary behavior. We use these results to assess change in the observed P over the most recent decade of the database. We find that the changes for most (84%) grid boxes are within the plausible bounds of no significant change at the 90% CI. The results emphasize the importance of adequately accounting for natural variability when assessing change.}, }
@article {pmid29456455, year = {2018}, author = {Hernandez, Y and Guimarães Pereira, &#xc2; and Barbosa, P}, title = {Resilient futures of a small island: A participatory approach in Tenerife (Canary Islands) to address climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; policy}, volume = {80}, number = {}, pages = {28-37}, pmid = {29456455}, issn = {1462-9011}, abstract = {Adaptation to climate change has been considered to be crucial to current societies, especially for small islands. In this paper the case of Tenerife (in the Canary Islands) is analysed. Tenerife is a small island located northwest of the African continent, in the Atlantic Ocean. Tenerife presents a high vulnerability to heatwaves and Saharan dust events as a consequence of its closeness to the Saharan desert. In fact, increasing frequency of heatwaves and Saharan dust events has been reported and could worsen in the future due to global warming. An exploration of adaptation strategies to an increase of the frequency and intensity of these phenomena is therefore needed. Different social actors have been engaged in a participatory process aiming at exploring pathways for adaptation to extreme weather events. Resilience was argued as the relevant framing to address those hazards. Four focus group sessions were carried out in order to explore key transformative elements necessary to make resilient futures for Tenerife. The results highlight the need for broader climate-based policies across all sectors to assure that the island becomes resilient to climatic and non-climatic shocks.}, }
@article {pmid29456454, year = {2018}, author = {Nawrotzki, RJ and DeWaard, J}, title = {Putting trapped populations into place: Climate change and inter-district migration flows in Zambia.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {533-546}, pmid = {29456454}, issn = {1436-3798}, support = {P2C HD041023/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Research shows that the association between adverse climate conditions and human migration is heterogeneous. One reason for this heterogeneity is the differential vulnerability of populations to climate change. This includes highly vulnerable, "trapped" populations that are too poor to migrate given deep and persistent poverty, the financial costs of migrating, and the erosion of already fragile economic livelihoods under climate change. Another reason for this heterogeneity is the differential vulnerability of places. However, despite the growing list of studies showing that the climate-migration relationship clearly varies across places, there is surprisingly little research on the characteristics of places themselves that trap, or immobilize, populations. Accordingly, we provide the first account of the "holding power" of places in the association between adverse climate conditions and migration flows among 55 districts in Zambia in 2000 and 2010. Methodologically, we combine high resolution climate information with aggregated census micro data to estimate gravity models of inter-district migration flows. Results reveal that the association between adverse climate conditions and migration is positive only for wealthy migrant-sending districts. In contrast, poor districts are characterized by climate-related immobility. Yet, our findings show that access to migrant networks enables climate related mobility in the poorest districts, suggesting a viable pathway to overcome mobility constraints. Planners and policy makers need to recognize the holding power of places that can trap populations and develop programs to support in situ adaptation and to facilitate migration to avoid humanitarian emergencies.}, }
@article {pmid29453644, year = {2018}, author = {Coverdale, J and Balon, R and Beresin, EV and Brenner, AM and Guerrero, APS and Louie, AK and Roberts, LW}, title = {Climate Change: A Call to Action for the Psychiatric Profession.}, journal = {Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {317-323}, doi = {10.1007/s40596-018-0885-7}, pmid = {29453644}, issn = {1545-7230}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Psychiatry ; }, }
@article {pmid29453115, year = {2018}, author = {Lamnatou, C and Motte, F and Notton, G and Chemisana, D and Cristofari, C}, title = {Cumulative energy demand and global warming potential of a building-integrated solar thermal system with/without phase change material.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {212}, number = {}, pages = {301-310}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.01.027}, pmid = {29453115}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {France ; *Global Warming ; *Recycling ; Solar Energy ; }, abstract = {Building-integrated solar thermal (BIST) systems are a specific type of solar thermal systems which are integrated into the building and they participate in building functionality. The present article is about the life-cycle assessment of different options of a BIST system (Mediterranean climatic conditions: Ajaccio, France). The environmental profile of the studied configurations is assessed by means of CED (cumulative energy demand), GWP (global warming potential) and EPBT (energy payback time). The proposed configurations (for the collector) include: i) a system without PCM (phase change material) using only rock wool as insulation and ii) a system with PCM (myristic acid) and rock wool. Concerning life-cycle results based on CED and GWP 100a (scenario without recycling), the configuration without PCM shows 0.67 MJprim/kWh and 0.06 kg CO2.eq/kWh while the configuration with PCM presents 0.74 MJprim/kWh and 0.08 kg CO2.eq/kWh. Regarding EPBT, if the inputs for pumping/auxiliary heating are not taken into account, both configurations (with/without PCM) have almost the same EPBT (about 1.3 years). On the other hand, if the inputs for pumping/auxiliary heating are considered, EPBT is lower for the system with PCM. In addition, scenarios with recycling have been examined and the results demonstrate that recycling considerably improves the environmental profile of the studied configurations.}, }
@article {pmid29451307, year = {2018}, author = {Wadgymar, SM and Ogilvie, JE and Inouye, DW and Weis, AE and Anderson, JT}, title = {Phenological responses to multiple environmental drivers under climate change: insights from a long-term observational study and a manipulative field experiment.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {218}, number = {2}, pages = {517-529}, doi = {10.1111/nph.15029}, pmid = {29451307}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Brassicaceae/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Flowers/*physiology ; Seasons ; Snow ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change has induced pronounced shifts in the reproductive phenology of plants, yet we know little about which environmental factors contribute to interspecific variation in responses and their effects on fitness. We integrate data from a 43 yr record of first flowering for six species in subalpine Colorado meadows with a 3 yr snow manipulation experiment on the perennial forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) from the same site. We analyze shifts in the onset of flowering in relation to environmental drivers known to influence phenology: the timing of snowmelt, the accumulation of growing degree days, and photoperiod. Variation in responses to climate change depended on the sequence in which species flowered, with early-flowering species reproducing faster, at a lower heat sum, and under increasingly disparate photoperiods relative to later-flowering species. Early snow-removal treatments confirm that the timing of snowmelt governs observed trends in flowering phenology of B. stricta and that climate change can reduce the probability of flowering, thereby depressing fitness. Our findings suggest that climate change is decoupling historical combinations of photoperiod and temperature and outpacing phenological changes for our focal species. Accurate predictions of biological responses to climate change require a thorough understanding of the factors driving shifts in phenology.}, }
@article {pmid29450079, year = {2017}, author = {Depoux, A and Hémono, M and Puig-Malet, S and Pédron, R and Flahault, A}, title = {Communicating climate change and health in the media.}, journal = {Public health reviews}, volume = {38}, number = {}, pages = {7}, pmid = {29450079}, issn = {0301-0422}, abstract = {The translation of science from research to real-world change is a central goal of public health. Communication has an essential role to play in provoking a response to climate change. It must first raise awareness, make people feel involved and ultimately motivate them to take action. The goal of this research is to understand how the information related to this issue is being addressed and disseminated to different audiences-public citizens, politicians and key climate change stakeholders. Initial results show that the scientific voice struggles to globally highlight this issue to a general audience and that messages that address the topic do not meet the challenges, going from a dramatic framing to a basic adaptation framing. Communication experts can help inform scientists and policy makers on how to best share information about climate change in an engaging and motivating way. This study gives an insight about the key role of the media and communications in addressing themes relating to climate change and transmitting information to the public in order to take action.}, }
@article {pmid29449510, year = {2018}, author = {Mills, LS and Bragina, EV and Kumar, AV and Zimova, M and Lafferty, DJR and Feltner, J and Davis, BM and Hackländer, K and Alves, PC and Good, JM and Melo-Ferreira, J and Dietz, A and Abramov, AV and Lopatina, N and Fay, K}, title = {Winter color polymorphisms identify global hot spots for evolutionary rescue from climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {359}, number = {6379}, pages = {1033-1036}, doi = {10.1126/science.aan8097}, pmid = {29449510}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Biological Mimicry ; *Climate Change ; *Molting ; *Pigmentation ; Seasons ; Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {Maintenance of biodiversity in a rapidly changing climate will depend on the efficacy of evolutionary rescue, whereby population declines due to abrupt environmental change are reversed by shifts in genetically driven adaptive traits. However, a lack of traits known to be under direct selection by anthropogenic climate change has limited the incorporation of evolutionary processes into global conservation efforts. In 21 vertebrate species, some individuals undergo a seasonal color molt from summer brown to winter white as camouflage against snow, whereas other individuals remain brown. Seasonal snow duration is decreasing globally, and fitness is lower for winter white animals on snowless backgrounds. Based on 2713 georeferenced samples of known winter coat color-from eight species across trophic levels-we identify environmentally driven clinal gradients in winter coat color, including polymorphic zones where winter brown and white morphs co-occur. These polymorphic zones, underrepresented by existing global protected area networks, indicate hot spots for evolutionary rescue in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid29448153, year = {2018}, author = {Li, Y and Ren, T and Kinney, PL and Joyner, A and Zhang, W}, title = {Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {163}, number = {}, pages = {171-185}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.01.047}, pmid = {29448153}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {China/epidemiology ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Mortality/trends ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041-2060) relative to 1970-2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300-43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200-36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300-29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800-14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200-40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits.}, }
@article {pmid29447288, year = {2018}, author = {García-Aguilar, MC and Turrent, C and Elorriaga-Verplancken, FR and Arias-Del-Razo, A and Schramm, Y}, title = {Climate change and the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) population in Baja California, Mexico.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {e0193211}, pmid = {29447288}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Mexico ; Population Density ; *Seals, Earless ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Earth's climate is warming, especially in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) breeds and haul-outs on islands and the mainland of Baja California, Mexico, and California, U.S.A. At the beginning of the 21st century, numbers of elephant seals in California are increasing, but the status of Baja California populations is unknown, and some data suggest they may be decreasing. We hypothesize that the elephant seal population of Baja California is experiencing a decline because the animals are not migrating as far south due to warming sea and air temperatures. Here we assessed population trends of the Baja California population, and climate change in the region. The numbers of northern elephant seals in Baja California colonies have been decreasing since the 1990s, and both the surface waters off Baja California and the local air temperatures have warmed during the last three decades. We propose that declining population sizes may be attributable to decreased migration towards the southern portions of the range in response to the observed temperature increases. Further research is needed to confirm our hypothesis; however, if true, it would imply that elephant seal colonies of Baja California and California are not demographically isolated which would pose challenges to environmental and management policies between Mexico and the United States.}, }
@article {pmid29446666, year = {2018}, author = {Faour-Klingbeil, D and Todd, ECD}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Raw and Untreated Wastewater Use for Agriculture, Especially in Arid Regions: A Review.}, journal = {Foodborne pathogens and disease}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {61-72}, doi = {10.1089/fpd.2017.2389}, pmid = {29446666}, issn = {1556-7125}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation/economics/*methods ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Water Resources ; Crops, Agricultural/chemistry/microbiology/parasitology ; *Droughts ; Environmental Policy ; Food Contamination/analysis ; Humans ; Public Health ; Wastewater/*chemistry ; Water Quality ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time that pose unprecedented stress to the environment and threats to human health. The global impacts of climate change are vast, spanning from extreme weather events to changes in patterns and distribution of infectious diseases. Lack of rainfall associated with higher temperatures has a direct influence on agricultural production. This is compounded by a growing population forecasted to expand further with increasing needs for food and water. All this has led to the increasing use of wastewater worldwide. In this review, we more specifically discuss the use of untreated wastewater in agriculture in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, the most arid region in the world. This presents challenges for agriculture with respect to water availability and increasing wastewater use in agri-food chain. This in turn exerts pressures on the safety of food raised from such irrigated crops. Current practices in the MENA region indicate that ineffective water resource management, lack of water quality policies, and slow-paced wastewater management strategies continue to contribute to a decline in water resources and an increased unplanned use of black and graywater in agriculture. Radical actions are needed in the region to improve water and wastewater management to adapt to these impacts. In this regard, the 2006 WHO guidelines for the use of wastewater contain recommendations for the most effective solutions. They provide a step-by-step guide for series of appropriate health protection measures for microbial reduction targets of 6 log units for viral, bacterial, and protozoan pathogens, but these need to be combined with new varieties of crops that are drought and pest resistant. More research into economic local treatment procedures for wastewater in the region is warranted.}, }
@article {pmid29446515, year = {2018}, author = {Bosch, J and Fernández-Beaskoetxea, S and Garner, TWJ and Carrascal, LM}, title = {Long-term monitoring of an amphibian community after a climate change- and infectious disease-driven species extirpation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {2622-2632}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14092}, pmid = {29446515}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Amphibians ; Animal Diseases/*epidemiology/microbiology ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Chytridiomycota/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Mycoses/*epidemiology/microbiology ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Infectious disease and climate change are considered major threats to biodiversity and act as drivers behind the global amphibian decline. This is, to a large extent, based on short-term studies that are designed to detect the immediate and strongest biodiversity responses to a threatening process. What few long-term studies are available, although typically focused on single species, report outcomes that often diverge significantly from the short-term species responses. Here, we report the results of an 18-year survey of an amphibian community exposed to both climate warming and the emergence of lethal chytridiomycosis. Our study shows that the impacts of infectious disease are ongoing but restricted to two out of nine species that form the community, despite the fact all species can become infected with the fungus. Climate warming appears to be affecting four out of the nine species, but the response of three of these is an increase in abundance. Our study supports a decreasing role of infectious disease on the community, and an increasing and currently positive effect of climate warming. We caution that if the warming trends continue, the net positive effect will turn negative as amphibian breeding habitat becomes unavailable as water bodies dry, a pattern that already may be underway.}, }
@article {pmid29446386, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Don't jump to conclusions about climate change and civil conflict.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {554}, number = {7692}, pages = {275-276}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-01875-9}, pmid = {29446386}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Africa ; Bias ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Conflict, Psychological ; Developing Countries/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Social Justice ; Social Sciences/methods/standards ; *Uncertainty ; Violence/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Vulnerable Populations ; *Warfare ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid29446033, year = {2018}, author = {Lake, IR and Barker, GC}, title = {Climate Change, Foodborne Pathogens and Illness in Higher-Income Countries.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {187-196}, pmid = {29446033}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {*Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Developed Countries/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Food Microbiology/methods ; Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology/*etiology/microbiology/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We present a review of the likely consequences of climate change for foodborne pathogens and associated human illness in higher-income countries.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: The relationships between climate and food are complex and hence the impacts of climate change uncertain. This makes it difficult to know which foodborne pathogens will be most affected, what the specific effects will be, and on what timescales changes might occur. Hence, a focus upon current capacity and adaptation potential against foodborne pathogens is essential. We highlight a number of developments that may enhance preparedness for climate change. These include the following: Adoption of novel surveillance methods, such as syndromic methods, to speed up detection and increase the fidelity of intervention in foodborne outbreaks Genotype-based approaches to surveillance of food pathogens to enhance spatiotemporal resolution in tracing and tracking of illness Ever increasing integration of plant, animal and human surveillance systems, One Health, to maximise potential for identifying threats Increased commitment to cross-border (global) information initiatives (including big data) Improved clarity regarding the governance of complex societal issues such as the conflict between food safety and food waste Strong user-centric (social) communications strategies to engage diverse stakeholder groups The impact of climate change upon foodborne pathogens and associated illness is uncertain. This emphasises the need to enhance current capacity and adaptation potential against foodborne illness. A range of developments are explored in this paper to enhance preparedness.}, }
@article {pmid29444086, year = {2018}, author = {Menezes, JA and Confalonieri, U and Madureira, AP and Duval, IB and Santos, RBD and Margonari, C}, title = {Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {e0190808}, pmid = {29444086}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Brazil ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Forests ; Humans ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29443447, year = {2018}, author = {Tribouillois, H and Constantin, J and Justes, E}, title = {Cover crops mitigate direct greenhouse gases balance but reduce drainage under climate change scenarios in temperate climate with dry summers.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {2513-2529}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14091}, pmid = {29443447}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; France ; Greenhouse Gases/*analysis ; *Humidity ; Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Cover crops provide ecosystem services such as storing atmospheric carbon in soils after incorporation of their residues. Cover crops also influence soil water balance, which can be an issue in temperate climates with dry summers as for example in southern France and Europe. As a consequence, it is necessary to understand cover crops' long-term influence on greenhouse gases (GHG) and water balances to assess their potential to mitigate climate change in arable cropping systems. We used the previously calibrated and validated soil-crop model STICS to simulate scenarios of cover crop introduction to assess their influence on rainfed and irrigated cropping systems and crop rotations distributed among five contrasted sites in southern France from 2007 to 2052. Our results showed that cover crops can improve mean direct GHG balance by 315 kg CO2 e ha[-1] year[-1] in the long term compared to that of bare soil. This was due mainly to an increase in carbon storage in the soil despite a slight increase in N2 O emissions which can be compensated by adapting fertilization. Cover crops also influence the water balance by reducing mean annual drainage by 20 mm/year but increasing mean annual evapotranspiration by 20 mm/year compared to those of bare soil. Using cover crops to improve the GHG balance may help to mitigate climate change by decreasing CO2 e emitted in cropping systems which can represent a decrease from 4.5% to 9% of annual GHG emissions of the French agriculture and forestry sector. However, if not well managed, they also could create water management issues in watersheds with shallow groundwater. Relationships between cover crop biomass and its influence on several variables such as drainage, carbon sequestration, and GHG emissions could be used to extend our results to other conditions to assess the cover crops' influence in a wider range of areas.}, }
@article {pmid29440664, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, R and Liang, T and Guo, J and Xie, H and Feng, Q and Aimaiti, Y}, title = {Grassland dynamics in response to climate change and human activities in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2014.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {2888}, pmid = {29440664}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; Human Activities ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change and human activities are two key factors that affect grassland ecosystem. Accurately estimating the effects of these two factors on grassland dynamics and understanding the driving forces of the dynamics are important in controlling grassland degradation. In this study, the potential Net Primary productivity (NPPP) and the difference between NPPP and actual NPP (NPPA) are used as indicators of climate change and human activities on grassland ecosystem in Xinjiang. An overall grassland NPPA increase than decrease (69.7% vs 30.3%) is found over the study period of 2000 to 2014. While human activities played a dominant role for such a NPPA increase, both human activities and climate change contributed almost equally to the grassland NPPA decrease. Within the three types of grasslands in Xinjiang, the desert grassland showed the greatest NPPA increasing trend that mostly attributed to human activities; the meadow showed an overall NPPA decreasing trend that was mainly caused by human activities; the steppe showed similar NPPA decreasing and increasing trend in terms of area percentage. Based on this study, our recommendations are (1) to continue the grazing prohibition policy in desert grassland and (2) to extensively implement the rest grazing policy in steppe and meadow grasslands.}, }
@article {pmid29440422, year = {2018}, author = {Gay-Antaki, M and Liverman, D}, title = {Climate for women in climate science: Women scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {9}, pages = {2060-2065}, pmid = {29440422}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; Data Collection ; Female ; Government ; Humans ; Interinstitutional Relations ; Research/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Women ; Women's Rights ; }, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an authoritative and influential source of reports on climate change. The lead authors of IPCC reports include scientists from around the world, but questions have been raised about the dominance of specific disciplines in the report and the disproportionate number of scholars from the Global North. In this paper, we analyze the as-yet-unexamined issue of gender and IPCC authorship, looking at changes in gender balance over time and analyzing women's views about their experience and barriers to full participation, not only as women but also at the intersection of nationality, race, command of English, and discipline. Over time, we show that the proportion of female IPCC authors has seen a modest increase from less than 5% in 1990 to more than 20% in the most recent assessment reports. Based on responses from over 100 women IPCC authors, we find that many women report a positive experience in the way in which they are treated and in their ability to influence the report, although others report that some women were poorly represented and heard. We suggest that an intersectional lens is important: not all women experience the same obstacles: they face multiple and diverse barriers associated with social identifiers such as race, nationality, command of English, and disciplinary affiliation. The scientific community benefits from including all scientists, including women and those from the Global South. This paper documents barriers to participation and identifies opportunities to diversify climate science.}, }
@article {pmid29440401, year = {2018}, author = {Nerem, RS and Beckley, BD and Fasullo, JT and Hamlington, BD and Masters, D and Mitchum, GT}, title = {Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {9}, pages = {2022-2025}, pmid = {29440401}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y[2] Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.}, }
@article {pmid29439244, year = {2018}, author = {Rogge, PC}, title = {My climate change crisis.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {359}, number = {6376}, pages = {706}, doi = {10.1126/science.359.6376.706}, pmid = {29439244}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid29438428, year = {2018}, author = {Ramírez, F and Rodríguez, C and Seoane, J and Figuerola, J and Bustamante, J}, title = {How will climate change affect endangered Mediterranean waterbirds?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {e0192702}, pmid = {29438428}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Endangered Species ; Seasons ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Global warming and direct anthropogenic impacts, such as water extraction, largely affect water budgets in Mediterranean wetlands, thereby increasing wetland salinities and isolation, and decreasing water depths and hydroperiods (duration of the inundation period). These wetland features are key elements structuring waterbird communities. However, the ultimate and net consequences of these dynamic conditions on waterbird assemblages are largely unknown. We combined regular sampling of waterbird presence through one annual cycle with in-situ data on relevant environmental predictors of waterbird distribution to model habitat selection for 69 species in a typical Mediterranean wetland network in southwestern Spain. Species associations with environmental features were subsequently used to predict changes in habitat suitability for each species under three climate change scenarios (encompassing changes in environmental predictors that ranged from 10% to 50% change as predicted by regional climatic models). Waterbirds distributed themselves unevenly throughout environmental gradients and water salinity was the most important gradient structuring the distribution of the community. Environmental suitability for the guilds of diving birds and vegetation gleaners will decline in future climate scenarios, while many small wading birds will benefit from changing conditions. Resident species and those that breed in this wetland network will also be more negatively impacted than those using this area for wintering or stopover. We provide a tool that can be used in a horizon-scanning framework to identify emerging issues in waterbird conservation and to anticipate suitable management actions.}, }
@article {pmid29436768, year = {2018}, author = {Sinervo, B and Miles, DB and Wu, Y and Méndez-DE LA Cruz, FR and Kirchhof, S and Qi, Y}, title = {Climate change, thermal niches, extinction risk and maternal-effect rescue of toad-headed lizards, Phrynocephalus, in thermal extremes of the Arabian Peninsula to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {450-470}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12315}, pmid = {29436768}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Altitude ; Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation ; Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; Female ; Geography ; Lizards/*physiology ; Male ; Ovum ; Phylogeny ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Determining the susceptibility of species to changing thermal niches is a major goal for biologists. In this paper we develop an eco-physiological model of extinction risk under climate change premised on behavioral thermoregulation. Our method downscales operative environmental temperatures, which restrict hours of activity of lizards, hr , for present-day climate (1975) and future climate scenarios (2070). We apply our model using occurrence records of 20 Phrynocephalus lizards (or taxa in species complexes) drawn from literature and museum records. Our analysis is phylogenetically informed, because some clades may be more sensitive to rising temperatures. The limits for computed hr predict local extirpations among Phrynocephalus lizards at continental scales and delineate upper boundaries of thermal niches as defined by Extreme Value Distributions. Under the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario, we predict extirpation of 64% of local populations by 2070 across 20 Phrynocephalus species, and 12 are at high risk of total extinction due to thermal limits being exceeded. In tandem with global strategies of lower CO2 emissions, we propose regional strategies for establishing new national parks to protect extinction-prone taxa by preserving high-elevation climate refugia within existing sites of species occurrence. We propose that evolved acclimatization - maternal plasticity - may ameliorate risk, but is poorly studied. Previous studies revealed that adaptive maternal plasticity by thermoregulating gravid females alter progeny thermal preferences by ±1 °C. We describe plasticity studies for extinction-prone species that could assess whether they might be buffered from climate warming - a self-rescue. We discuss an epigenetic framework for studying such maternal-effect evolution.}, }
@article {pmid29434297, year = {2018}, author = {Xiu, P and Chai, F and Curchitser, EN and Castruccio, FS}, title = {Future changes in coastal upwelling ecosystems with global warming: The case of the California Current System.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {2866}, pmid = {29434297}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {California ; Ecosystem ; Food Supply ; *Global Warming ; Models, Theoretical ; Plankton/*physiology ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Coastal upwelling ecosystems are among the most productive ecosystems in the world, meaning that their response to climate change is of critical importance. Our understanding of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems is largely limited to the open ocean, mainly because coastal upwelling is poorly reproduced by current earth system models. Here, a high-resolution model is used to examine the response of nutrients and plankton dynamics to future climate change in the California Current System (CCS). The results show increased upwelling intensity associated with stronger alongshore winds in the coastal region, and enhanced upper-ocean stratification in both the CCS and open ocean. Warming of the open ocean forces isotherms downwards, where they make contact with water masses with higher nutrient concentrations, thereby enhancing the nutrient flux to the deep source waters of the CCS. Increased winds and eddy activity further facilitate upward nutrient transport to the euphotic zone. However, the plankton community exhibits a complex and nonlinear response to increased nutrient input, as the food web dynamics tend to interact differently. This analysis highlights the difficulty in understanding how the marine ecosystem responds to a future warming climate, given to range of relevant processes operating at different scales.}, }
@article {pmid29432164, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Correction for Murari et al., Climate change and agricultural suicides in India.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {7}, pages = {E1698}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1801217115}, pmid = {29432164}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid29430082, year = {2017}, author = {Hunter, LM and Simon, DH}, title = {Might Climate Change the "Healthy Migrant" Effect?.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {47}, number = {}, pages = {133-142}, pmid = {29430082}, issn = {0959-3780}, support = {P2C HD066613/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R13 HD078101/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid29426026, year = {2018}, author = {Schweitzer, MD and Calzadilla, AS and Salamo, O and Sharifi, A and Kumar, N and Holt, G and Campos, M and Mirsaeidi, M}, title = {Lung health in era of climate change and dust storms.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {163}, number = {}, pages = {36-42}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2018.02.001}, pmid = {29426026}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Aged ; *Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Asthma/etiology/immunology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; *Dust ; Humans ; Lung/drug effects/immunology/pathology ; *Sarcoidosis/etiology/immunology ; Wind ; }, abstract = {Dust storms are strong winds which lead to particle exposure over extensive areas. These storms influence air quality on both a local and global scale which lead to both short and long-term effects. The frequency of dust storms has been on the rise during the last decade. Forecasts suggest that their incidence will increase as a response to the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Elderly people, young children, and individuals with chronic cardiopulmonary diseases are at the greatest risk for health effects of dust storms. A wide variety of infectious and non-infectious diseases have been associated with dust exposure. Influenza A virus, pulmonary coccidioidomycosis, bacterial pneumonia, and meningococcal meningitis are a few examples of dust-related infectious diseases. Among non-infectious diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, sarcoidosis and pulmonary fibrosis have been associated with dust contact. Here, we review two molecular mechanisms of dust induced lung disease for asthma and sarcoidosis. We can also then further understand the mechanisms by which dust particles disturb airway epithelial and immune cells.}, }
@article {pmid29423733, year = {2018}, author = {Luo, Q and O'Leary, G and Cleverly, J and Eamus, D}, title = {Effectiveness of time of sowing and cultivar choice for managing climate change: wheat crop phenology and water use efficiency.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {6}, pages = {1049-1061}, pmid = {29423733}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {AGFACE//ARC, GRDC/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Climate Change ; Edible Grain/growth &amp; development ; New South Wales ; Seasons ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) presents a challenge for the sustainable development of wheat production systems in Australia. This study aimed to (1) quantify the impact of future CC on wheat grain yield for the period centred on 2030 from the perspectives of wheat phenology, water use and water use efficiency (WUE) and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of changing sowing times and cultivars in response to the expected impacts of future CC on wheat grain yield. The daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model for baseline and future periods were used by a stochastic weather generator to derive changes in mean climate and in climate variability and to construct local climate scenarios, which were then coupled with a wheat crop model to achieve the two research aims. We considered three locations in New South Wales, Australia, six times of sowing (TOS) and three bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars in this study. Simulation results show that in 2030 (1) for impact analysis, wheat phenological events are expected to occur earlier and crop water use is expected to decrease across all cases (the combination of three locations, six TOS and three cultivars), wheat grain yield would increase or decrease depending on locations and TOS; and WUE would increase in most of the cases; (2) for adaptation considerations, the combination of TOS and cultivars with the highest yield varied across locations. Wheat growers at different locations will require different strategies in managing the negative impacts or taking the opportunities of future CC.}, }
@article {pmid29423694, year = {2019}, author = {Lee, YJ and Tung, CM and Lin, SC}, title = {Attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and mitigation and adaptation behavior in Yunlin County, Taiwan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {26}, number = {30}, pages = {30603-30613}, pmid = {29423694}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {MOST 104-2410-H-170-003//Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan/ ; MOST105-2410-H-170-001-MY2//Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan/ ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological/*physiology ; *Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Disasters ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Rural Population ; Taiwan ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Issues that are associated with climate change have global importance. Most related studies take a national or regional perspective on the impact of climate change. Taiwan is constrained by its geographical conditions, which increase its vulnerability to climate change, especially in its western coastal areas. The county that is most affected by climate change is Yunlin. In 2013-2014, projects that were sponsored by Taiwan's government analyzed the relationship among synthesized vulnerability, ecological footprint (EF) and adaptation to climate change and proposed 15 categories of synthesized vulnerability and EF values. This study further examines the relationship between vulnerability and EF values and examines how residents of four townships-Linnei, Sihu, Mailiao, and Huwei-cope with the effects of climate change. This study investigates whether the residents of the four townships vary in their attitudes to climate change, their perceptions of disaster risk, and their behavioral intentions with respect to coping with climate change. The structural equation model (SEM) is used to examine the relationships among attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and the behavioral intentions of residents in townships with various vulnerabilities to climate change. The results that are obtained using the SEM reveal that climate change mitigation/adaptation behavior is affected by attitudes to climate change and perceptions of disaster risk. However, the effects of attitudes and perceptions on mitigation and adaptation that are mediated by place attachment are not statistically significant.}, }
@article {pmid29423661, year = {2018}, author = {Hathaway, J and Maibach, EW}, title = {Health Implications of Climate Change: a Review of the Literature About the Perception of the Public and Health Professionals.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {197-204}, pmid = {29423661}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; Attitude to Health ; *Climate Change ; *Health ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; *Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Through a systematic search of English language peer-reviewed studies, we assess how health professionals and the public, worldwide, perceive the health implications of climate change.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Among health professionals, perception that climate change is harming health appears to be high, although self-assessed knowledge is low, and perceived need to learn more is high. Among the public, few North Americans can list any health impacts of climate change, or who is at risk, but appear to view climate change as harmful to health. Among vulnerable publics in Asia and Africa, awareness of increasing health harms due to specific changing climatic conditions is high. Americans across the political and climate change opinion spectra appear receptive to information about the health aspects of climate change, although findings are mixed. Health professionals feel the need to learn more, and the public appears open to learning more, about the health consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29420869, year = {2018}, author = {Wolff, NH and Mumby, PJ and Devlin, M and Anthony, KRN}, title = {Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {1978-1991}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14043}, pmid = {29420869}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Pressure ; *Water Quality ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under pressure from a suite of stressors including cyclones, crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), nutrients from river run-off and warming events that drive mass coral bleaching. Two key questions are: how vulnerable will the GBR be to future environmental scenarios, and to what extent can local management actions lower vulnerability in the face of climate change? To address these questions, we use a simple empirical and mechanistic coral model to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections (from four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), cyclones and local stressors. Projections (2017-2050) indicate significant potential for coral recovery in the near-term, relative to current state, followed by climate-driven decline. Under a scenario of unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5) and business-as-usual management of local stressors, mean coral cover on the GBR is predicted to recover over the next decade and then rapidly decline to only 3% by year 2050. In contrast, a scenario of strong carbon mitigation (RCP2.6) and improved water quality, predicts significant coral recovery over the next two decades, followed by a relatively modest climate-driven decline that sustained coral cover above 26% by 2050. In an analysis of the impacts of cumulative stressors on coral cover relative to potential coral cover in the absence of such impacts, we found that GBR-wide reef performance will decline 27%-74% depending on the scenario. Up to 66% of performance loss is attributable to local stressors. The potential for management to reduce vulnerability, measured here as the mean number of years coral cover can be kept above 30%, is spatially variable. Management strategies that alleviate cumulative impacts have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of some midshelf reefs in the central GBR by 83%, but only if combined with strong mitigation of carbon emissions.}, }
@article {pmid29417451, year = {2018}, author = {Kinney, PL}, title = {Interactions of Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Human Health.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {179-186}, pmid = {29417451}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; Inhalation Exposure/adverse effects ; Ozone/adverse effects ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: I review literature on the impacts of climate change on air quality and human health, with a focus on articles published from 2013 on ozone and airborne particles. Selected previous literature is discussed where relevant in tracing the origins of our current knowledge.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Climate and weather have strong influences on the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollution concentrations. Emissions of ozone and PM2.5 precursors increase at higher ambient temperatures. The reactions that form ozone occur faster with greater sunlight and higher temperatures. Weather systems influence the movement and dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere through the action of winds, vertical mixing, and precipitation, all of which are likely to alter in a changing climate. Recent studies indicate that, holding anthropogenic air pollution emissions constant, ozone concentrations in populated regions will tend to increase in future climate scenarios. For the USA, the climate impact on ozone is most consistently seen in north-central and north-eastern states, with the potential for many thousands of additional ozone-related deaths. The sensitivity of anthropogenic PM2.5 to climate is more variable across studies and regions, owing to the varied nature of PM constituents, as well as to less complete characterization of PM reaction chemistry in available atmospheric models. However, PM emitted by wildland fires is likely to become an increasing health risk in many parts of the world as climate continues to change. The complex interactions between climate change and air quality imply that future policies to mitigate these twin challenges will benefit from greater coordination. Assessing the health implications of alternative policy approaches towards climate and pollution mitigation will be a critical area of future work.}, }
@article {pmid29415354, year = {2018}, author = {Katelaris, CH and Beggs, PJ}, title = {Climate change: allergens and allergic diseases.}, journal = {Internal medicine journal}, volume = {48}, number = {2}, pages = {129-134}, doi = {10.1111/imj.13699}, pmid = {29415354}, issn = {1445-5994}, mesh = {Allergens/*adverse effects ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Greenhouse Gases/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology/etiology/therapy ; Pollen/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, have increased significantly since the start of the Industrial Era around 1750, with much of this increase occurring over just the last 50 years or so. This is resulting in warming of the climate system as well as changes in precipitation and weather and climate extremes. These changes in climate are having wide-ranging impacts on the Earth's physical, biological and human systems, including human health. It is these impacts of climate change on human health that are the focus of this paper, particularly the impacts on allergens and allergic diseases. Such impacts are particularly significant in many countries where the prevalence of such diseases is high and/or increasing. There is now compelling evidence that rising air temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations are, in some plant species, resulting in increased pollen production and allergenicity and advancement and lengthening of the pollen season. Changes in extreme events, such as thunderstorms and tropical cyclones, will also have impacts on allergic diseases, with, for example, the flooding associated with tropical cyclones leading to proliferation of mould growth in damp homes. The article also considers a range of responses to these health threats, including greenhouse gas mitigation, and adaptation strategies, such as enhanced environmental monitoring and health surveillance and adequate planning for the future medical workforce.}, }
@article {pmid29414989, year = {2018}, author = {Tremblay, JA and Boulanger, Y and Cyr, D and Taylor, AR and Price, DT and St-Laurent, MH}, title = {Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {e0191645}, pmid = {29414989}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.}, }
@article {pmid29414375, year = {2018}, author = {Gomiero, A and Bellerby, RGJ and Manca Zeichen, M and Babbini, L and Viarengo, A}, title = {Biological responses of two marine organisms of ecological relevance to on-going ocean acidification and global warming.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {236}, number = {}, pages = {60-70}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2018.01.063}, pmid = {29414375}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; Chlorophyta/*physiology ; Ciliophora/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Recently, there has been a growing concern that climate change may rapidly and extensively alter global ecosystems with unknown consequences for terrestrial and aquatic life. While considerable emphasis has been placed on terrestrial ecology consequences, aquatic environments have received relatively little attention. Limited knowledge is available on the biological effects of increments of seawater temperature and pH decrements on key ecological species, i.e., primary producers and/or organisms representative of the basis of the trophic web. In the present study, we addressed the biological effects of global warming and ocean acidification on two model organisms, the microbenthic marine ciliate Euplotes crassus and the green alga Dunaliella tertiocleta using a suite of high level ecological endpoint tests and sub-lethal stress measures. Organisms were exposed to combinations of pH and temperature (TR1: 7.9[pH], 25.5 °C and TR2: 7.8[pH], 27,0 °C) simulating two possible environmental scenarios predicted to occur in the habitats of the selected species before the end of this century. The outcomes of the present study showed that the tested scenarios did not induce a significant increment of mortality on protozoa. Under the most severe exposure conditions, sub-lethal stress indices show that pH homeostatic mechanisms have energetic costs that divert energy from essential cellular processes and functions. The marine protozoan exhibited significant impairment of the lysosomal compartment and early signs of oxidative stress under these conditions. Similarly, significant impairment of photosynthetic efficiency and an increment in lipid peroxidation were observed in the autotroph model organism held under the most extreme exposure condition tested.}, }
@article {pmid29412275, year = {2017}, author = {Miguel, JCH}, title = {The technopolitics of climate change: climate models, geopolitics, and governmentality.}, journal = {Historia, ciencias, saude--Manguinhos}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {969-987}, doi = {10.1590/S0104-59702017000500007}, pmid = {29412275}, issn = {1678-4758}, abstract = {Based on an empirical study of climate modeling at Brazil's Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, the article explores how climate modeling represents a pragmatic government approach in the realm of climate change. The discussion begins with how this pragmatic approach serves the purposes of the geopolitical action of the State within the international framework of global climate knowledge production. It then shows how modeling engenders forms of interpretation of climate change phenomena and future impacts on the local scale and finds expression in governmental rationalities of a biopolitical nature. In short, the discussion is how the technoscience of climate modeling is constructed as a governmental technology and rationality (governmentality) of the State, a process I call the technopolitics of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29410875, year = {2018}, author = {Amélineau, F and Fort, J and Mathewson, PD and Speirs, DC and Courbin, N and Perret, S and Porter, WP and Wilson, RJ and Grémillet, D}, title = {Energyscapes and prey fields shape a North Atlantic seabird wintering hotspot under climate change.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {171883}, pmid = {29410875}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {There is an urgent need for a better understanding of animal migratory ecology under the influence of climate change. Most current analyses require long-term monitoring of populations on the move, and shorter-term approaches are needed. Here, we analysed the ecological drivers of seabird migration within the framework of the energyscape concept, which we defined as the variations in the energy requirements of an organism across geographical space as a function of environmental conditions. We compared the winter location of seabirds with their modelled energy requirements and prey fields throughout the North Atlantic. Across six winters, we tracked the migration of 94 little auks (Alle alle), a key sentinel Arctic species, between their East Greenland breeding site and wintering areas off Newfoundland. Winter energyscapes were modelled with Niche Mapper™, a mechanistic tool which takes into account local climate and bird ecophysiology. Subsequently, we used a resource selection function to explain seabird distributions through modelled energyscapes and winter surface distribution of one of their main prey, Calanus finmarchicus. Finally, future energyscapes were calculated according to IPCC climate change scenarios. We found that little auks targeted areas with high prey densities and moderately elevated energyscapes. Predicted energyscapes for 2050 and 2095 showed a decrease in winter energy requirements under the high emission scenario, which may be beneficial if prey availability is maintained. Overall, our study demonstrates the great potential of the energyscape concept for the study of animal spatial ecology, in particular in the context of global change.}, }
@article {pmid29404558, year = {2018}, author = {Bais, AF and Lucas, RM and Bornman, JF and Williamson, CE and Sulzberger, B and Austin, AT and Wilson, SR and Andrady, AL and Bernhard, G and McKenzie, RL and Aucamp, PJ and Madronich, S and Neale, RE and Yazar, S and Young, AR and de Gruijl, FR and Norval, M and Takizawa, Y and Barnes, PW and Robson, TM and Robinson, SA and Ballaré, CL and Flint, SD and Neale, PJ and Hylander, S and Rose, KC and Wängberg, S&#xc5; and Häder, DP and Worrest, RC and Zepp, RG and Paul, ND and Cory, RM and Solomon, KR and Longstreth, J and Pandey, KK and Redhwi, HH and Torikai, A and Heikkilä, AM}, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2017.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {127-179}, pmid = {29404558}, issn = {1474-9092}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels of experts that inform the Parties to the Montreal Protocol. The EEAP focuses on the effects of UV radiation on human health, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, air quality, and materials, as well as on the interactive effects of UV radiation and global climate change. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously held. Because of the Montreal Protocol, there are now indications of the beginnings of a recovery of stratospheric ozone, although the time required to reach levels like those before the 1960s is still uncertain, particularly as the effects of stratospheric ozone on climate change and vice versa, are not yet fully understood. Some regions will likely receive enhanced levels of UV radiation, while other areas will likely experience a reduction in UV radiation as ozone- and climate-driven changes affect the amounts of UV radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Like the other Panels, the EEAP produces detailed Quadrennial Reports every four years; the most recent was published as a series of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). In the years in between, the EEAP produces less detailed and shorter Update Reports of recent and relevant scientific findings. The most recent of these was for 2016 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2017, 16, 107-145). The present 2017 Update Report assesses some of the highlights and new insights about the interactive nature of the direct and indirect effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change. A full 2018 Quadrennial Assessment, will be made available in 2018/2019.}, }
@article {pmid29402988, year = {2018}, author = {Lara, MJ and Nitze, I and Grosse, G and Martin, P and McGuire, AD}, title = {Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {2345}, pmid = {29402988}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km[2]) using the Landsat archive (1999-2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.}, }
@article {pmid29402986, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, Y and Bian, J and Zhao, Y and Tang, J and Jia, Z}, title = {Assessment of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution in snowmelt period for a cold area using SWAT.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {2402}, pmid = {29402986}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The source area of Liao River is a typical cold region in northeastern China, which experiences serious problems with agricultural nonpoint source pollution (NPS), it is important to understand future climate change impacts on NPS in the watershed. This issue has been investigated by coupling semi distributed hydrological model (SWAT), statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and global circulation model (GCMs). The results show that annual average temperature would rise by 2.1 °C (1.3 °C) in the 2080 s under scenario RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), and annual precipitation would increase by 67 mm (33 mm). The change in winter temperature and precipitation is most significant with an increase by 0.23 °C/10a (0.17 °C/10a) and 1.94 mm/10a (2.78 mm/10a). The future streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease by 19.05% (10.59%), 12.27% (8.81%) and 10.63% (6.11%), respectively. Monthly average streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease from March to November, and increase from December to February. This is because the increased precipitation and temperature in winter, which made the spring snowpack melting earlier. These study indicate the trends of nonpoint source pollution during the snowmelt period under climate change conditions, accordingly adaptation measures will be necessary.}, }
@article {pmid29398897, year = {2017}, author = {Burger, J and Gochfeld, M}, title = {Perceptions of severe storms, climate change, ecological structures and resiliency three years post-hurricane Sandy in New Jersey.}, journal = {Urban ecosystems}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {1261-1275}, pmid = {29398897}, issn = {1083-8155}, support = {P30 ES005022/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Global warming is leading to increased frequency and severity of storms that are associated with flooding, increasing the risk to urban, coastal populations. This study examined perceptions of the relationship between severe storms, sea level rise, climate change and ecological barriers by a vulnerable environmental justice population in New Jersey. Patients using New Jersey's Federally Qualified Health Centers were interviewed after Hurricane [Superstorm] Sandy because it is essential to understand the perceptions of uninsured, underinsured, and economically challenged people to better develop a resiliency strategy for the most vulnerable people. Patients (N = 355) using 6 centers were interviewed using a structured interview form. Patients were interviewed in the order they entered the reception area, in either English or Spanish. Respondents were asked to rate their agreement with environmental statements. Respondents 1) agreed with experts that "severe storms were due to climate change", "storms will come more often", and that "flooding was due to sea level rise", 2) did not agree as strongly that "climate change was due to human activity", 3) were neutral for statements that "Sandy damages were due to loss of dunes or salt marshes". 4) did not differ as a function of ethnic/racial categories, and 5) showed few gender differences. It is imperative that the public understand that climate change and sea level rise are occurring so that they support community programs (and funding) to prepare for increased frequency of storms and coastal flooding. The lack of high ratings for the role of dunes and marshes in preventing flooding indicates a lack of understanding that ecological structures protect coasts, and suggests a lack of support for management actions to restore dunes as part of a coastal preparedness strategy. Perceptions that do not support a public policy of coastal zone management to protect coastlines can lead to increased flooding, extensive property damages, and injuries or loss of life.}, }
@article {pmid29396330, year = {2018}, author = {Azhoni, A and Goyal, MK}, title = {Diagnosing climate change impacts and identifying adaptation strategies by involving key stakeholder organisations and farmers in Sikkim, India: Challenges and opportunities.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {626}, number = {}, pages = {468-477}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.112}, pmid = {29396330}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Humans ; Sikkim ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Narrowing the gap between research, policy making and implementing adaptation remains a challenge in many parts of the world where climate change is likely to severely impact water security. This research aims to narrow this gap by matching the adaptation strategies being framed by policy makers to that of the perspectives of development agencies, researchers and farmers in the Himalayan state of Sikkim in India. Our case study examined the perspectives of various stakeholders for climate change impacts, current adaptation strategies, knowledge gaps and adaptation barriers, particularly in the context of implementing the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change through semi-structured interviews carried out with decision makers in the Sikkim State Government, researchers, consultants, local academia, development agencies and farmers. Using Stakeholders Network Analysis tools, this research unravels the complexities of perceiving climate change impacts, identifying strategies, and implementing adaptation. While farmers are less aware about the global phenomenon of climate change impacts for water security, their knowledge of the local conditions and their close interaction with the State Government Agriculture Department provides them opportunities. Although important steps are being initiated through the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change it is yet to deliver effective means of adaptation implementation and hence, strengthening the networks of close coordination between the various implementing agencies will pay dividends. Knowledge gaps and the need for capacity building identified in this research, based on the understandings of key stakeholders are highly relevant to both the research community and for informing policy.}, }
@article {pmid29395962, year = {2018}, author = {Needleman, RK and Neylan, IP and Erickson, T}, title = {Potential Environmental and Ecological Effects of Global Climate Change on Venomous Terrestrial Species in the Wilderness.}, journal = {Wilderness &amp; environmental medicine}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {226-238}, doi = {10.1016/j.wem.2017.11.004}, pmid = {29395962}, issn = {1545-1534}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Animals, Poisonous/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Hymenoptera/*physiology ; Snakes/*physiology ; Spiders/*physiology ; *Wilderness ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change has been scientifically documented, and its effects on wildlife have been prognosticated. We sought to predict the overall impact of climate change on venomous terrestrial species. We hypothesize that given the close relationship between terrestrial venomous species and climate, a changing global environment may result in increased species migration, geographical redistribution, and longer seasons for envenomation, which would have repercussions on human health.<br><br>METHODS: A retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature was performed with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous terrestrial creatures. Species included venomous reptiles, snakes, arthropods, spiders, and Hymenoptera (ants and bees). Animals that are vectors of hemorrhagic infectious disease (eg, mosquitos, ticks) were excluded.<br><br>RESULTS: Our review of the literature indicates that changes to climatic norms will have a potentially dramatic effect on terrestrial venomous creatures. Empirical evidence demonstrates that geographic distributions of many species have already shifted due to changing climatic conditions. Given that most terrestrial venomous species are ectotherms closely tied to ambient temperature, and that climate change is shifting temperature zones away from the equator, further significant distribution and population changes should be anticipated. For those species able to migrate to match the changing temperatures, new geographical locations may open. For those species with limited distribution capabilities, the rate of climate change may accelerate faster than species can adapt, causing population declines. Specifically, poisonous snakes and spiders will likely maintain their population numbers but will shift their geographic distribution to traditionally temperate zones more often inhabited by humans. Fire ants and Africanized honey bees are expected to have an expanded range distribution due to predicted warming trends. Human encounters with these types of creatures are likely to increase, resulting in potential human morbidity and mortality.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Temperature extremes and changes to climatic norms may have a dramatic effect on venomous terrestrial species. As climate change affects the distribution, populations, and life histories of these organisms, the chance of encounters could be altered, thus affecting human health and the survivability of these creatures.}, }
@article {pmid29389964, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, R and Li, Q and He, S and Liu, Y and Wang, M and Jiang, G}, title = {Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {e0192153}, pmid = {29389964}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pseudomonas syringae/*isolation &amp; purification/metabolism ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China.<br><br>METHOD: Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation.<br><br>RESULT: The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25&#xb0; to 36&#xb0;N and from longitude 101&#xb0; to 122&#xb0;E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.}, }
@article {pmid29389638, year = {2018}, author = {Paterson, RRM and Venâncio, A and Lima, N and Guilloux-Bénatier, M and Rousseaux, S}, title = {Predominant mycotoxins, mycotoxigenic fungi and climate change related to wine.}, journal = {Food research international (Ottawa, Ont.)}, volume = {103}, number = {}, pages = {478-491}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodres.2017.09.080}, pmid = {29389638}, issn = {1873-7145}, mesh = {Aflatoxins/adverse effects/metabolism ; Aspergillus/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Consumer Product Safety ; Food Microbiology/*methods ; Fruit/growth &amp; development/*microbiology ; Fumonisins/adverse effects/metabolism ; Humans ; Mycotoxins/*adverse effects/metabolism ; Ochratoxins/adverse effects/metabolism ; Risk Assessment ; Vitis/growth &amp; development/*microbiology ; Wine/adverse effects/*microbiology ; }, abstract = {Wine is a significant contributor to the economies of many countries. However, the commodity can become contaminated with mycotoxins produced by certain fungi. Most information on mycotoxins in wine is from Spain, Italy and France. Grapes can be infected by mycotoxigenic fungi, of which Aspergillus carbonarius producing ochratoxin A (OTA) is of highest concern. Climate is the most important factor in determining contamination once the fungi are established, with high temperatures being a major factor for OTA contamination: OTA in wine is at higher concentrations in warmer southern Europe than northern. Contamination by fumonisins is a particular concern, related to Aspergillus niger producing these compounds and the fungus being isolated frequently from grapes. Aflatoxins can be present in wine, but patulin is seldom detected. Alternaria mycotoxins (e.g. alternariol) have been frequently observed. There are indications that T-2 toxin may be common. Also, the combined effects of mycotoxins in wine require consideration. No other mycotoxins are currently of concern. Accurate fungal identifications and mycotoxin detection from the fungi are important and a consideration of practical methods are required. There is a diversity of wines that can be contaminated (e.g. red, white, sweet, dry and fortified). The occurrence of OTA is higher in red and sweet than white wines. Steps to control mycotoxins in wine involve good agriculture practices. The effect of climate change on vines and mycotoxins in wine needs urgent consideration by well-constructed modelling studies and expert interpretation of existing data. Reliable models of the effect of climate change on vines is a priority: the health of vines affects mycotoxin contamination. A modelling study of OTA in grapes at higher temperatures over 100years is required. Progress has been made in reducing OTA in wine. The other mycotoxins require consideration and the effects of climate change will become crucial.}, }
@article {pmid29386754, year = {2017}, author = {Corry, O}, title = {The international politics of geoengineering: The feasibility of Plan B for tackling climate change.}, journal = {Security dialogue}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {297-315}, pmid = {29386754}, issn = {1460-3640}, abstract = {Geoengineering technologies aim to make large-scale and deliberate interventions in the climate system possible. A typical framing is that researchers are exploring a 'Plan B' in case mitigation fails to avert dangerous climate change. Some options are thought to have the potential to alter the politics of climate change dramatically, yet in evaluating whether they might ultimately reduce climate risks, their political and security implications have so far not been given adequate prominence. This article puts forward what it calls the 'security hazard' and argues that this could be a crucial factor in determining whether a technology is able, ultimately, to reduce climate risks. Ideas about global governance of geoengineering rely on heroic assumptions about state rationality and a generally pacific international system. Moreover, if in a climate engineered world weather events become something certain states can be made directly responsible for, this may also negatively affect prospects for 'Plan A', i.e. an effective global agreement on mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid29384340, year = {2018}, author = {Antoine-Jonville, S and Faure, C and Hue, O and Henri, S}, title = {Ambient temperature-related exaggerated post-prandial insulin response in a young athlete: a case report and implications for climate change.}, journal = {Asia Pacific journal of clinical nutrition}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {487-489}, doi = {10.6133/apjcn.052017.10}, pmid = {29384340}, issn = {0964-7058}, mesh = {Humans ; Insulin/blood/*metabolism ; Male ; *Postprandial Period ; *Temperature ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The objective is to present the case of a 21-yr-old athlete observed with non-physiological immediate postprandial insulin response (1162 pmol/l; normal glucose excursion: 6.6 mmol/l), in a warm environment. No suspicion or evidence of any underlying pathology was found in this well-trained Afro-Caribbean male runner. He never reported any hypoglycemic episode. When performing the same protocol performed in a cooler environment (21.0°C vs 30.3°C), only physiological responses were observed. We conclude that 1) youth, leanness and regular exercise training are not absolutely protective against glucose metabolism impairment in apparently healthy subjects; 2) ambient temperature should be regarded as a potential source of glucose metabolism impairment.}, }
@article {pmid29383253, year = {2017}, author = {Strauss, WM and Hetem, RS and Mitchell, D and Maloney, SK and O'Brien, HD and Meyer, LCR and Fuller, A}, title = {Body water conservation through selective brain cooling by the carotid rete: a physiological feature for surviving climate change?.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {cow078}, pmid = {29383253}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Some mammals have the ability to lower their hypothalamic temperature below that of carotid arterial blood temperature, a process termed selective brain cooling. Although the requisite anatomical structure that facilitates this physiological process, the carotid rete, is present in members of the Cetartiodactyla, Felidae and Canidae, the carotid rete is particularly well developed in the artiodactyls, e.g. antelopes, cattle, sheep and goats. First described in the domestic cat, the seemingly obvious function initially attributed to selective brain cooling was that of protecting the brain from thermal damage. However, hyperthermia is not a prerequisite for selective brain cooling, and selective brain cooling can be exhibited at all times of the day, even when carotid arterial blood temperature is relatively low. More recently, it has been shown that selective brain cooling functions primarily as a water-conservation mechanism, allowing artiodactyls to save more than half of their daily water requirements. Here, we argue that the evolutionary success of the artiodactyls may, in part, be attributed to the evolution of the carotid rete and the resulting ability to conserve body water during past environmental conditions, and we suggest that this group of mammals may therefore have a selective advantage in the hotter and drier conditions associated with current anthropogenic climate change. A better understanding of how selective brain cooling provides physiological plasticity to mammals in changing environments will improve our ability to predict their responses and to implement appropriate conservation measures.}, }
@article {pmid29380382, year = {2018}, author = {Tseng, M and Kaur, KM and Soleimani Pari, S and Sarai, K and Chan, D and Yao, CH and Porto, P and Toor, A and Toor, HS and Fograscher, K}, title = {Decreases in beetle body size linked to climate change and warming temperatures.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {87}, number = {3}, pages = {647-659}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12789}, pmid = {29380382}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/*physiology ; Global Warming ; *Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Body size is a fundamental ecological trait and is correlated with population dynamics, community structure and function, and ecosystem fluxes. Laboratory data from broad taxonomic groups suggest that a widespread response to a warming world may be an overall decrease in organism body size. However, given the myriad of biotic and abiotic factors that can also influence organism body size in the wild, it is unclear whether results from these laboratory assays hold in nature. Here we use datasets spanning 30 to 100 years to examine whether the body size of wild-caught beetles has changed over time, whether body size changes are correlated with increased temperatures, and we frame these results using predictions derived from a quantitative review of laboratory responses of 22 beetle species to temperature. We found that 95% of laboratory-reared beetles decreased in size with increased rearing temperature, with larger-bodied species shrinking disproportionately more than smaller-bodied beetles. In addition, the museum datasets revealed that larger-bodied beetle species have decreased in size over time, that mean beetle body size explains much of the interspecific variation in beetle responses to temperature, and that long-term beetle size changes are explained by increases in autumn temperature and decreases in spring temperature in this region. Our data demonstrate that the relationship between body size and temperature of wild-caught beetles matches relatively well with results from laboratory studies, and that variation in this relationship is largely explained by interspecific variation in mean beetle body size. This long-term beetle dataset is one of the most comprehensive arthropod body size datasets compiled to date, it improves predictions regarding the shrinking of organisms with global climate change, and together with the meta-analysis data, call for new hypotheses to explain why larger-bodied organisms may be more sensitive to temperature.}, }
@article {pmid29379217, year = {2018}, author = {Hofer, U}, title = {Marine Microbiology: Climate change boosts cyanobacteria.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {122-123}, pmid = {29379217}, issn = {1740-1534}, mesh = {Cell Proliferation ; *Climate Change ; *Cyanobacteria ; Food Chain ; Water Microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid29379177, year = {2018}, author = {Baker, DM and Freeman, CJ and Wong, JCY and Fogel, ML and Knowlton, N}, title = {Climate change promotes parasitism in a coral symbiosis.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {921-930}, pmid = {29379177}, issn = {1751-7370}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; Anthozoa/metabolism/*physiology ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Cyanobacteria/metabolism/*physiology ; Dinoflagellida/metabolism/*physiology ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Symbiosis/*physiology ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Coastal oceans are increasingly eutrophic, warm and acidic through the addition of anthropogenic nitrogen and carbon, respectively. Among the most sensitive taxa to these changes are scleractinian corals, which engineer the most biodiverse ecosystems on Earth. Corals' sensitivity is a consequence of their evolutionary investment in symbiosis with the dinoflagellate alga, Symbiodinium. Together, the coral holobiont has dominated oligotrophic tropical marine habitats. However, warming destabilizes this association and reduces coral fitness. It has been theorized that, when reefs become warm and eutrophic, mutualistic Symbiodinium sequester more resources for their own growth, thus parasitizing their hosts of nutrition. Here, we tested the hypothesis that sub-bleaching temperature and excess nitrogen promotes symbiont parasitism by measuring respiration (costs) and the assimilation and translocation of both carbon (energy) and nitrogen (growth; both benefits) within Orbicella faveolata hosting one of two Symbiodinium phylotypes using a dual stable isotope tracer incubation at ambient (26 °C) and sub-bleaching (31 °C) temperatures under elevated nitrate. Warming to 31 °C reduced holobiont net primary productivity (NPP) by 60% due to increased respiration which decreased host %carbon by 15% with no apparent cost to the symbiont. Concurrently, Symbiodinium carbon and nitrogen assimilation increased by 14 and 32%, respectively while increasing their mitotic index by 15%, whereas hosts did not gain a proportional increase in translocated photosynthates. We conclude that the disparity in benefits and costs to both partners is evidence of symbiont parasitism in the coral symbiosis and has major implications for the resilience of coral reefs under threat of global change.}, }
@article {pmid29377826, year = {2018}, author = {Zoboli, O and Schilling, K and Ludwig, AL and Kreuzinger, N and Zessner, M}, title = {Primary productivity and climate change in Austrian lowland rivers.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {77}, number = {1-2}, pages = {417-425}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2017.553}, pmid = {29377826}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Austria ; Carbon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Eutrophication ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {There is increasing evidence of water temperature being a key controlling factor of stream ecosystem metabolism. Although the focus of research currently lies on carbon emissions from fluvial networks and their potential role as positive climate feedback, it is also important to estimate the risk of eutrophication streams will be exposed to in the future. In this work, a methodological approach is developed to create a scientific basis for such assessment and is applied to two Austrian lowland rivers with significantly different characteristics. Gross primary productivity (GPP) is determined through the open diel oxygen method and its temperature dependence is quantified based on the metabolic theory of ecology. This relationship is combined with the outcomes of a climate change scenario obtained through a novel integrated modelling framework. Results indicate that in both rivers, a 1.5°C warming would provoke an increase of GPP of 7-9% and that such an increase would not be limited by nutrient availability. The results further suggest that the situation for the relatively shallow river might be more critical, given that its GPP values in summer are five times higher than in the deeper murky river.}, }
@article {pmid29377078, year = {2018}, author = {Dayrit, JF and Bintanjoyo, L and Andersen, LK and Davis, MDP}, title = {Impact of climate change on dermatological conditions related to flooding: update from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {57}, number = {8}, pages = {901-910}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.13901}, pmid = {29377078}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Bites and Stings/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Dermatitis/epidemiology ; Dermatomycoses/epidemiology ; *Floods ; Humans ; Skin/*injuries ; Skin Diseases/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Skin Diseases, Bacterial/epidemiology ; Skin Diseases, Parasitic/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change contributes to the increase in severity and frequency of flooding, which is the most frequent and deadly disaster worldwide. Flood-related damage can be very severe and include health effects. Among those health impacts, dermatological diseases are one of the most frequently encountered. Both infectious and noninfectious dermatological conditions are increasing after flooding. We searched PubMed using the search term climate change OR global warming OR rainfall OR flooding OR skin. Articles published in the English-language literature were included. We also searched the International Society of Dermatology website library on climate change for additional articles. There is an increased risk of trauma during the course of a natural disaster. The majority of post-tsunami wound infections were polymicrobial, but gram-negative bacteria were the leading causes. Infectious diseases with dermatological manifestations, such as impetigo, leptospirosis, measles, dengue fever, tinea corporis, malaria, and leishmaniasis, are important causes of morbidity among flood-afflicted individuals. Insect bites and stings, and parasite infestations such as scabies and cutaneous larva migrans are also frequently observed. Inflammatory conditions including irritant contact dermatitis are among the leading dermatological conditions. Dermatological conditions such as alopecia areata, vitiligo, psoriasis, and urticaria can be induced or exacerbated by psychological conditions post disaster. Prevention is essential in the management of skin diseases because of flooding. Avoiding exposure to contaminated environments, wearing protective devices, rapid provision of clean water and sanitation facilities, prompt vector controls, and education about disease risk and prevention are important.}, }
@article {pmid29375800, year = {2018}, author = {Sheridan, JA and Caruso, NM and Apodaca, JJ and Rissler, LJ}, title = {Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {1316-1327}, pmid = {29375800}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km[2], and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.}, }
@article {pmid29373749, year = {2018}, author = {Martínez-Vilalta, J}, title = {The rear window: structural and functional plasticity in tree responses to climate change inferred from growth rings.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {38}, number = {2}, pages = {155-158}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpy008}, pmid = {29373749}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forests ; Temperature ; *Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid29372502, year = {2018}, author = {Lamsal, P and Kumar, L and Aryal, A and Atreya, K}, title = {Invasive alien plant species dynamics in the Himalayan region under climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {47}, number = {6}, pages = {697-710}, pmid = {29372502}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Introduced Species ; *Plants ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Climate change will impact the dynamics of invasive alien plant species (IAPS). However, the ability of IAPS under changing climate to invade mountain ecosystems, particularly the Himalayan region, is less known. This study investigates the current and future habitat of five IAPS of the Himalayan region using MaxEnt and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Two invasive species, Ageratum conyzoides and Parthenium hysterophorus, will lose overall suitable area by 2070, while Ageratina adenophora, Chromolaena odorata and Lantana camara will gain suitable areas and all of them will retain most of the current habitat as stable. The southern Himalayan foothills will mostly conserve species ecological niches, while suitability of all the five species will decrease with increasing elevation. Such invasion dynamics in the Himalayan region could have impacts on numerous ecosystems and their biota, ecosystem services and human well-being. Trans-boundary response strategies suitable to the local context of the region could buffer some of the likely invasion impacts.}, }
@article {pmid29368173, year = {2018}, author = {Meier, M and Fuhrer, J and Holzkämper, A}, title = {Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {6}, pages = {991-1002}, pmid = {29368173}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Freezing ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk ; Seasons ; Switzerland ; Vitis/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Late spring frost is a severe risk during early plant development. It may cause important economic damage to grapevine production. In a warming climate, late frost risk either could decline due to the reduction in frost days and an advancement of the last day of frost or increase due to a more pronounced shift forward of the start of the active growing period of the plants. These possibilities were analyzed in a case study for two locations in the lower Swiss Rhone Valley (Sion, Aigle) where viticulture is an important part of agriculture. Twelve phenology models were calibrated for the developmental stage BBCH09 (bud burst) using measured or reconstructed temperature data for two vineyards in Changins (1958 to 2012) and Leytron (1977 to 2014) together with observed phenological data. The day of year (DOY) for BBCH09 was then modelled for the years 1951 to 2050 using the best performing phenology model in combination with ten downscaled and bias-corrected climate scenarios. A 100-day period starting with BBCH09 was defined, during which daily mean and minimum temperatures were used to calculate three frost risk indices in each year. These indices were compared between the periods 1961-1990 (reference) and 2021-2050 (climate change scenario). Based on the average of the ensemble of climate model chains, BBCH09 advanced by 9 (range 7-11) (Aigle) and 7 (range 5-8) (Sion) days between the two time periods, similar to the shift in the last day of frost. The separate results of the different model chains suggest that, in the near future, late spring frost risk may increase or decrease, depending on location and climate change projections. While for the reference, the risk is larger at the warmer site (Sion) compared to that at the cooler site (Aigle), for the period 2021-2050, small shifts in both phenology and occurrence of frost (i.e., days with daily minimum temperature below 0 °C) lead to a small decrease in frost risk at the warmer but an increase at the cooler site. However, considerable uncertainties remain that are mostly related to climate model chains. Consequently, shifts in frost risk remain uncertain for the time period considered and the two study locations.}, }
@article {pmid29364949, year = {2018}, author = {Hermes, C and Keller, K and Nicholas, RE and Segelbacher, G and Schaefer, HM}, title = {Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {e0191773}, pmid = {29364949}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Ecuador ; *Endangered Species/trends ; Forests ; Models, Biological ; *Parakeets ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes.}, }
@article {pmid29363133, year = {2018}, author = {Arevalo, E and Panserat, S and Seiliez, I and Larrañaga, A and Bardonnet, A}, title = {Effect of food shortage and temperature on age 0+ salmonids: a contribution to predict the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {92}, number = {3}, pages = {642-652}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.13533}, pmid = {29363133}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; Autophagy/genetics ; *Climate Change ; *Energy Metabolism ; Fish Proteins/genetics/metabolism ; Gene Expression Profiling ; Proteolysis ; *Temperature ; Trout/*genetics/metabolism/physiology ; Yolk Sac ; }, abstract = {Brown trout Salmo trutta alevins were maintained at 8 and 11° C at three conditions over a 9 day period from yolk sac exhaustion: fed ad libitum, starved or fed ad libitum after starvation. Whole-body gene expressions for proteins involved in energy metabolism and the two primary proteolytic pathways were assessed. This study is the first to show an over-expression of proteasome and autophagy-related genes in young stages of salmonids, particularly at 11° C.}, }
@article {pmid29362700, year = {2018}, author = {Bai, Y and Wei, X and Li, X}, title = {Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {e4287}, pmid = {29362700}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future.<br><br>METHODS: In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time.<br><br>RESULTS: Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas.<br><br>DISCUSSION: In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.}, }
@article {pmid29361977, year = {2018}, author = {Pinceel, T and Buschke, F and Weckx, M and Brendonck, L and Vanschoenwinkel, B}, title = {Climate change jeopardizes the persistence of freshwater zooplankton by reducing both habitat suitability and demographic resilience.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {2}, pmid = {29361977}, issn = {1472-6785}, support = {12F0716N//FWO/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Anostraca/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Fresh Water ; *Life History Traits ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Zooplankton/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Higher temperatures and increased environmental variability under climate change could jeopardize the persistence of species. Organisms that rely on short windows of rainfall to complete their life-cycles, like desert annual plants or temporary pool animals, may be particularly at risk. Although some could tolerate environmental changes by building-up banks of propagules (seeds or eggs) that buffer against catastrophes, climate change will threaten this resilience mechanism if higher temperatures reduce propagule survival. Using a crustacean model species from temporary waters, we quantified experimentally the survival and dormancy of propagules under anticipated climate change and used these demographic parameters to simulate long term population dynamics.<br><br>RESULTS: By exposing propagules to present-day and projected daily temperature cycles in an 8&#xa0;month laboratory experiment, we showed how increased temperatures reduce survival rates in the propagule bank. Integrating these reduced survival rates into population models demonstrated the inability of the bank to maintain populations; thereby exacerbating extinction risk caused by shortened growing seasons.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our study demonstrates that climate change could threaten the persistence of populations by both reducing habitat suitability and eroding life-history strategies that support demographic resilience.}, }
@article {pmid29358713, year = {2018}, author = {Chowdhury, S and Dey, S and Smith, KR}, title = {Ambient PM2.5 exposure and expected premature mortality to 2100 in India under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {318}, pmid = {29358713}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis/*toxicity ; Air Pollution/*analysis ; Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*analysis ; Forecasting ; Humans ; India ; Mortality, Premature/*trends ; Particulate Matter/*analysis/*toxicity ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Premature mortality from current ambient fine particulate (PM2.5) exposure in India is large, but the trend under climate change is unclear. Here we estimate ambient PM2.5 exposure up to 2100 by applying the relative changes in PM2.5 from baseline period (2001-2005) derived from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models to the satellite-derived baseline PM2.5. We then project the mortality burden using socioeconomic and demographic projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Ambient PM2.5 exposure is expected to peak in 2030 under the RCP4.5 and in 2040 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Premature mortality burden is expected to be 2.4-4 and 28.5-38.8% higher under RCP8.5 scenario relative to the RCP4.5 scenario in 2031-2040 and 2091-2100, respectively. Improved health conditions due to economic growth are expected to compensate for the impact of changes in population and age distribution, leading to a reduction in per capita health burden from PM2.5 for all scenarios except the combination of RCP8.5 exposure and SSP3.}, }
@article {pmid29353968, year = {2017}, author = {Mulvaney, KK and Druschke, CG}, title = {USING DIVERSE EXPERTISE TO ADVANCE CLIMATE CHANGE FISHERIES SCIENCE.}, journal = {Ocean &amp; coastal management}, volume = {149}, number = {}, pages = {175-185}, pmid = {29353968}, issn = {0964-5691}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; EPA999999//Intramural EPA/ ; }, abstract = {As climate change continues to impact New England's coastal ecosystems and their related fisheries, the need for measuring, projecting, interpreting, and applying those impacts for adaptive management is expanding. In New England, different types of formal and informal research efforts that involve collaboration between the fishing community and traditional university and government researchers continue to develop to address some of this need. To better understand the opportunities and challenges that these collaborative research efforts face, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 18 members of the fishing and research communities who are engaged in advancing New England climate change and fisheries science. Participants showed clear concern for the impacts of climate change on New England fisheries and about the insufficient availability of the necessary science to manage for those impacts. They also noted a number of challenges in collaborative research, including poor communication and a lack of trust among fishers, researchers, and decision makers, as well as a lack of perceived credibility for research coming out of the fishing community. We identify a number of opportunities for improving collaboration and communication among these groups, which could build upon the identified value of existing collaborations.}, }
@article {pmid29353124, year = {2018}, author = {Hundessa, S and Li, S and Liu, L and Guo, J and Guo, Y and Zhang, W and Williams, G}, title = {Projecting environmental suitable areas for malaria transmission in China under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {162}, number = {}, pages = {203-210}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2017.12.021}, pmid = {29353124}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Malaria/transmission ; *Malaria, Falciparum/transmission ; *Malaria, Vivax/transmission ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The proportion of imported malaria cases in China has increased over recent years, and has presented challenges for the malaria elimination program in China. However, little is known about the geographic distribution and environmental suitability for malaria transmission under projected climate change scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: Using the MaxEnt model based on malaria presence-only records, we produced environmental suitability maps and examined the relative contribution of topographic, demographic, and environmental risk factors for P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China.<br><br>RESULTS: The MaxEnt model estimated that environmental suitability areas (ESAs) for malaria cover the central, south, southwest, east and northern regions, with a slightly wider range of ESAs extending to the northeast region for P. falciparum. There was spatial agreement between the location of imported cases and area environmentally suitable for malaria transmission. The ESAs of P. vivax and P. falciparum are projected to increase in some parts of southwest, south, central, north and northeast regions in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, by a greater amount for P. falciparum under the RCP8.5 scenario. Temperature and NDVI values were the most influential in defining the ESAs for P. vivax, and temperature and precipitation the most influential for P. falciparum malaria.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study estimated that the ESA for malaria transmission in China will increase with climate change and highlights the potential establishment of further local transmission. This model should be used to support malaria control by targeting areas where interventions on malaria transmission need to be enhanced.}, }
@article {pmid29348646, year = {2018}, author = {Treves, A and Artelle, KA and Darimont, CT and Lynn, WS and Paquet, P and Santiago-Ávila, FJ and Shaw, R and Wood, MC}, title = {Intergenerational equity can help to prevent climate change and extinction.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {204-207}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-018-0465-y}, pmid = {29348646}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Extinction, Biological ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid29345683, year = {2018}, author = {Forster, P}, title = {Homing in on a key factor of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {553}, number = {7688}, pages = {288-289}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-00480-0}, pmid = {29345683}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid29345235, year = {2018}, author = {D Amato, M and Cecchi, L and Annesi-Maesano, I and D Amato, G}, title = {News on Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Allergic Triggers of Asthma.}, journal = {Journal of investigational allergology &amp; clinical immunology}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {91-97}, doi = {10.18176/jiaci.0228}, pmid = {29345235}, issn = {1018-9068}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*immunology ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Allergens/immunology ; Animals ; Asthma/*etiology/*immunology ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*etiology/*immunology ; Pollen/immunology ; Vehicle Emissions ; }, abstract = {The rising frequency of obstructive respiratory diseases during recent years, in particular allergic asthma, can be partially explained by changes in the environment, with the increasing presence in the atmosphere of chemical triggers (particulate matter and gaseous components such as nitrogen dioxide and ozone) and biologic triggers (aeroallergens). In allergic individuals, aeroallergens stimulate airway sensitization and thus induce symptoms of bronchial asthma. Over the last 50 years, the earth's temperature has risen markedly, likely because of growing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Major atmospheric and climatic changes, including global warming induced by human activity, have a considerable impact on the biosphere and on the human environment. Urbanization and high levels of vehicle emissions induce symptoms of bronchial obstruction (in particular bronchial asthma), more so in people living in urban areas compared than in those who live in rural areas. Measures need to be taken to mitigate the future impact of climate change and global warming. However, while global emissions continue to rise, we must learn to adapt to climate variability.}, }
@article {pmid29342758, year = {2017}, author = {Pearson, AR and van der Linden, S}, title = {When does deprivation motivate future-oriented thinking? The case of climate change.}, journal = {The Behavioral and brain sciences}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {e336}, doi = {10.1017/S0140525X17001066}, pmid = {29342758}, issn = {1469-1825}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Decision Making ; Forecasting ; Social Class ; *Thinking ; }, abstract = {Pepper &amp; Nettle overstate cross-domain evidence of present-oriented thinking among lower-socioeconomic-status (SES) groups and overlook key social and contextual drivers of temporal decision making. We consider psychological research on climate change - a quintessential intertemporal problem that implicates inequities and extrinsic mortality risk - documenting more future-oriented thinking among low- compared to high-SES groups.}, }
@article {pmid29341358, year = {2018}, author = {Mustonen, KR and Mykrä, H and Marttila, H and Sarremejane, R and Veijalainen, N and Sippel, K and Muotka, T and Hawkins, CP}, title = {Thermal and hydrologic responses to climate change predict marked alterations in boreal stream invertebrate assemblages.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {2434-2446}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14053}, pmid = {29341358}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Finland ; Hydrology ; Invertebrates/*classification/physiology ; Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Air temperature at the northernmost latitudes is predicted to increase steeply and precipitation to become more variable by the end of the 21st century, resulting in altered thermal and hydrological regimes. We applied five climate scenarios to predict the future (2070-2100) benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages at 239 near-pristine sites across Finland (ca. 1200 km latitudinal span). We used a multitaxon distribution model with air temperature and modeled daily flow as predictors. As expected, projected air temperature increased the most in northernmost Finland. Predicted taxonomic richness also increased the most in northern Finland, congruent with the predicted northwards shift of many species' distributions. Compositional changes were predicted to be high even without changes in richness, suggesting that species replacement may be the main mechanism causing climate-induced changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Northern streams were predicted to lose much of the seasonality of their flow regimes, causing potentially marked changes in stream benthic assemblages. Sites with the highest loss of seasonality were predicted to support future assemblages that deviate most in compositional similarity from the present-day assemblages. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were also predicted to change more in headwaters than in larger streams, as headwaters were particularly sensitive to changes in flow patterns. Our results emphasize the importance of focusing protection and mitigation on headwater streams with high-flow seasonality because of their vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29338736, year = {2018}, author = {Moukam Kakmeni, FM and Guimapi, RYA and Ndjomatchoua, FT and Pedro, SA and Mutunga, J and Tonnang, HEZ}, title = {Spatial panorama of malaria prevalence in Africa under climate change and interventions scenarios.}, journal = {International journal of health geographics}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {2}, pmid = {29338736}, issn = {1476-072X}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Geographic Information Systems/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Geographic Mapping ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/*transmission ; *Models, Theoretical ; Mosquito Vectors ; Plasmodium falciparum/isolation &amp; purification ; Prevalence ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Malaria is highly sensitive to climatic variables and is strongly influenced by the presence of vectors in a region that further contribute to parasite development and sustained disease transmission. Mathematical analysis of malaria transmission through the use and application of the value of the basic reproduction number (R0) threshold is an important and useful tool for the understanding of disease patterns.<br><br>METHODS: Temperature dependence aspect of R0 obtained from dynamical mathematical network model was used to derive the spatial distribution maps for malaria transmission under different climatic and intervention scenarios. Model validation was conducted using MARA map and the Annual Plasmodium falciparum Entomological Inoculation Rates for Africa.<br><br>RESULTS: The inclusion of the coupling between patches in dynamical model seems to have no effects on the estimate of the optimal temperature (about 25&#xa0;&#xb0;C) for malaria transmission. In patches environment, we were able to establish a threshold value (about &#x3b1;&#xa0;=&#xa0;5) representing the ratio between the migration rates from one patch to another that has no effect on the magnitude of R0. Such findings allow us to limit the production of the spatial distribution map of R0 to a single patch model. Future projections using temperature changes indicated a shift in malaria transmission areas towards the southern and northern areas of Africa and the application of the interventions scenario yielded a considerable reduction in transmission within malaria endemic areas of the continent.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The approach employed here is a sole study that defined the limits of contemporary malaria transmission, using R0 derived from a dynamical mathematical model. It has offered a unique prospect for measuring the impacts of interventions through simple manipulation of model parameters. Projections at scale provide options to visualize and query the results, when linked to the human population could potentially deliver adequate highlight on the number of individuals at risk of malaria infection across Africa. The findings provide a reasonable basis for understanding the fundamental effects of malaria control and could contribute towards disease elimination, which is considered as a challenge especially in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29335439, year = {2018}, author = {Wu, X and Wang, W and Xie, X and Yin, C and Hou, H and Yan, W and Wang, G}, title = {Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity as affected by different water management strategies in Chinese double rice-cropping systems.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {779}, pmid = {29335439}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {This study provides a complete account of global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) in relation to a long-term water management experiment in Chinese double-rice cropping systems. The three strategies of water management comprised continuous (year-round) flooding (CF), flooding during the rice season but with drainage during the midseason and harvest time (F-D-F), and irrigation only for flooding during transplanting and the tillering stage (F-RF). The CH4 and N2O fluxes were measured with the static chamber method. Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration rates were estimated based on the changes in the carbon stocks during 1998-2014. Longer periods of soil flooding led to increased CH4 emissions, reduced N2O emissions, and enhanced SOC sequestration. The net GWPs were 22,497, 8,895, and 1,646 kg CO2-equivalent ha[-1] yr[-1] for the CF, F-D-F, and F-RF, respectively. The annual rice grain yields were comparable between the F-D-F and CF, but were reduced significantly (by 13%) in the F-RF. The GHGIs were 2.07, 0.87, and 0.18 kg CO2-equivalent kg[-1] grain yr[-1] for the CF, F-D-F, and F-RF, respectively. These results suggest that F-D-F could be used to maintain the grain yields and simultaneously mitigate the climatic impact of double rice-cropping systems.}, }
@article {pmid29332297, year = {2018}, author = {Lewis, MA and Marculis, NG and Shen, Z}, title = {Integrodifference equations in the presence of climate change: persistence criterion, travelling waves and inside dynamics.}, journal = {Journal of mathematical biology}, volume = {77}, number = {6-7}, pages = {1649-1687}, pmid = {29332297}, issn = {1432-1416}, support = {NET GP 434810-12//Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Basic Reproduction Number ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Mathematical Concepts ; *Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {To understand the effects that the climate change has on the evolution of species as well as the genetic consequences, we analyze an integrodifference equation (IDE) models for a reproducing and dispersing population in a spatio-temporal heterogeneous environment described by a shifting climate envelope. Our analysis on the IDE focuses on the persistence criterion, travelling wave solutions, and the inside dynamics. First, the persistence criterion, characterizing the global dynamics of the IDE, is established in terms of the basic reproduction number. In the case of persistence, a unique travelling wave is found to govern the global dynamics. The effects of the size and the shifting speed of the climate envelope on the basic reproduction number, and hence, on the persistence criterion, are also investigated. In particular, the critical domain size and the critical shifting speed are found in certain cases. Numerical simulations are performed to complement the theoretical results. In the case of persistence, we separate the travelling wave and general solutions into spatially distinct neutral fractions to study the inside dynamics. It is shown that each neutral genetic fraction rearranges itself spatially so as to asymptotically achieve the profile of the travelling wave. To measure the genetic diversity of the population density we calculate the Shannon diversity index and related indices, and use these to illustrate how diversity changes with underlying parameters.}, }
@article {pmid29331243, year = {2018}, author = {Rugiu, L and Manninen, I and Rothäusler, E and Jormalainen, V}, title = {Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {134}, number = {}, pages = {76-84}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2017.12.016}, pmid = {29331243}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; Baltic States ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fucus/physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Climate change is threating species' persistence worldwide. To predict species responses to climate change we need information not just on their environmental tolerance but also on its adaptive potential. We tested how the foundation species of rocky littoral habitats, Fucus vesiculosus, responds to combined hyposalinity and warming projected to the Baltic Sea by 2070-2099. We quantified responses of replicated populations originating from the entrance, central, and marginal Baltic regions. Using replicated individuals, we tested for the presence of within-population tolerance variation. Future conditions hampered growth and survival of the central and marginal populations whereas the entrance populations fared well. Further, both the among- and within-population variation in responses to climate change indicated existence of genetic variation in tolerance. Such standing genetic variation provides the raw material necessary for adaptation to a changing environment, which may eventually ensure the persistence of the species in the inner Baltic Sea.}, }
@article {pmid29326251, year = {2018}, author = {Stone, R}, title = {Cuba's 100-year plan for climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {359}, number = {6372}, pages = {144-145}, doi = {10.1126/science.359.6372.144}, pmid = {29326251}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Cuba ; Ecosystem ; *Government Programs ; }, }
@article {pmid29325358, year = {2018}, author = {Qiu, JT and Zhang, L and Luo, XJ and Yang, J and Liu, S and Jiang, WX and Yu, CT}, title = {[Correlation between of aortic dissection onset and climate change].}, journal = {Zhonghua wai ke za zhi [Chinese journal of surgery]}, volume = {56}, number = {1}, pages = {74-77}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.issn.0529-5815.2018.01.016}, pmid = {29325358}, issn = {0529-5815}, mesh = {Adult ; *Aortic Dissection/epidemiology ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Retrospective Studies ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Objective: To explore the relationship between the incidence of aortic dissection and climate change. Methods: The characteristics of 345 acute aortic dissection patients came from Beijing in Department of Vascular Surgery, Fu Wai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking Union Medical College from January 2005 to December 2015 were analyzed, retrospectively. There were 266 male and 79 female patients with a mean age of (49±12) years. There were 209 cases of Stanford type A aortic dissection, and 136 cases of type B. According to Fuwai aortic dissection classification: type A 8 cases, type B 95 cases, type Cp 13 cases, type Ct 187 cases, type Cd 40 cases, type D 2 cases. Meanwhile, monthly maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, average pressure, amount of rainfall, sunshine, relative humidity and other meteorological data were collected. Rank-sum test was used to analyze the difference of onset of aortic dissection in different seasons and months. Generalized additive models were implied to explore climate change and the onset of aortic dissection. Results: The onset of aortic dissection was related to season. Winter had higher morbidity compared to summer (M(Q(R)): 3(2) vs. 2(2), Z=1.97, P=0.05). The occurrence of aortic dissection was associated with month.December had the largest quantity, July had the least (2(3) vs. 2(1), Z=2.42, P=0.02). The mean temperature was statistically significant for indicating the change of aortic dissection onset. It meaned that onset probability was increased with the decrease of temperature (RR=1.01, 95%CI: 1.00 to 1.02, P=0.04). Conclusions: The onset of aortic dissection had something to do with season and month. The incidence of aortic dissection increases with temperature decreases.}, }
@article {pmid29323803, year = {2017}, author = {Mazza, JJ}, title = {Climate Change and Agriculture: Future Implications.}, journal = {WMJ : official publication of the State Medical Society of Wisconsin}, volume = {116}, number = {4}, pages = {191}, pmid = {29323803}, issn = {1098-1861}, mesh = {*Agriculture/trends ; *Climate Change ; *Forecasting ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid29323158, year = {2018}, author = {Yin, Y and Ma, D and Wu, S}, title = {Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {493}, pmid = {29323158}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Models, Biological ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Variations in forest net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the combined effects of key climate variables on ecosystem structure and function, especially on the carbon cycle. We performed risk analysis indicated by the magnitude of future negative anomalies in NPP in comparison with the natural interannual variability to investigate the impact of future climatic projections on forests in China. Results from the multi-model ensemble showed that climate change risk of decreases in forest NPP would be more significant in higher emission scenario in China. Under relatively low emission scenarios, the total area of risk was predicted to decline, while for RCP8.5, it was predicted to first decrease and then increase after the middle of 21st century. The rapid temperature increases predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario would be probably unfavorable for forest vegetation growth in the long term. High-level risk area was likely to increase except RCP2.6. The percentage area at high risk was predicted to increase from 5.39% (2021-2050) to 27.62% (2071-2099) under RCP8.5. Climate change risk to forests was mostly concentrated in southern subtropical and tropical regions, generally significant under high emission scenario of RCP8.5, which was mainly attributed to the intensified dryness in south China.}, }
@article {pmid29321885, year = {2018}, author = {Paterson, RRM and Lima, N}, title = {Climate change affecting oil palm agronomy, and oil palm cultivation increasing climate change, require amelioration.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {452-461}, pmid = {29321885}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Palm oil is used in various valued commodities and is a large global industry worth over US$ 50 billion annually. Oil palms (OP) are grown commercially in Indonesia and Malaysia and other countries within Latin America and Africa. The large-scale land-use change has high ecological, economic, and social impacts. Tropical countries in particular are affected negatively by climate change (CC) which also has a detrimental impact on OP agronomy, whereas the cultivation of OP increases CC. Amelioration of both is required. The reduced ability to grow OP will reduce CC, which may allow more cultivation tending to increase CC, in a decreasing cycle. OP could be increasingly grown in more suitable regions occurring under CC. Enhancing the soil fauna may compensate for the effect of CC on OP agriculture to some extent. The effect of OP cultivation on CC may be reduced by employing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plans, for example, by avoiding illegal fire land clearing. Other ameliorating methods are reported herein. More research is required involving good management practices that can offset the increases in CC by OP plantations. Overall, OP-growing countries should support the Paris convention on reducing CC as the most feasible scheme for reducing CC.}, }
@article {pmid29321863, year = {2018}, author = {Lee, SG and Kim, SK and Lee, HJ and Lee, HS and Lee, JH}, title = {Impact of moderate and extreme climate change scenarios on growth, morphological features, photosynthesis, and fruit production of hot pepper.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {197-206}, pmid = {29321863}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Horticultural crop production and changes in physiological aspects during the growing season may be affected by climate change factors (CC), which include increased temperature and the associated doubling or tripling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the potential effects are complex and many parameters might impact on the observed effects. To evaluate the effects of CC, the growth, yield, fruit characteristics, photosynthetic traits, and morphological characteristics of hot peppers were investigated. The hot peppers were grown under two CC scenarios, with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 4.5 (Temp.; +3.4°C, CO2 conc.; 540 μmol/mol, Precipitation +17.3%) and RCP 8.5 (Temp.; +6.0°C and CO2 conc.; 940 μmol/mol, Precipitation +20.3%), respectively, using extreme weather simulators. This was compared with existing weather conditions occurring in Jeonju, South Korea in terms of air temperature, relative humidity, radiation, and precipitation. Overall, the plant height showed the highest under moderate CC conditions (RCP 4.5) among all the treatments tested. The number of leaves in the RCP 8.5 condition showed 7,739/plants, which was 2.2 times higher than that of the control. In addition, fruit shape was shortened and percentage dry matter was also the highest. The yield of hot pepper in the CC RCP 4.5 and 8.5 conditions were decreased by 21.5% and 89.2% when compared with that of the control, respectively. The days to harvest in the condition of CC scenarios were shortened from 5 to 13 compared with that of control, predominantly due to the increased air temperature. The results indicated that the severe RCP CC scenarios made reduction in the yields and negative affection on the fruit qualities. Overall, hot pepper was tolerant of mild CC scenarios of temperature × CO2 but was significantly affected by more extreme CC interacting parameter concentrations (or similar).}, }
@article {pmid29321679, year = {2018}, author = {Weiwei, LU and Xinxiao, YU and Guodong, JIA and Hanzhi, LI and Ziqiang, LIU}, title = {Responses of Intrinsic Water-use Efficiency and Tree Growth to Climate Change in Semi-Arid Areas of North China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {308}, pmid = {29321679}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; Cupressaceae/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Humidity ; }, abstract = {Tree-level intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) is derived from the tree-ring [13]C isotope composition (δ[13]C) and is an important indicator of the adaptability for trees to climate change. However, there is still uncertainty regarding the relationship between long-term forest ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity and iWUE. To determine whether elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (Ca) increase iWUE and tree growth (basal area increment, BAI), dendrochronological methods and stable isotope analyses were used to examine annual changes in the tree-ring width and carbon isotope composition (δ[13]C) of Platycladus orientalis in northern China. The iWUE derived from δ[13]C has increased significantly (p < 0.01). Long-term iWUE trend was largely and positively driven by the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. We observed a general increase in averaged BAI, which had significant positive correlation with iWUE (R[2] = 0.3186, p < 0.01). Increases in iWUE indeed translated into enhanced P. orientalis growth in semi-arid areas of northern China. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration significantly (p < 0.01) stimulated P. orientalis biomass accumulation when Ca was less than approximately 320 ppm in the early phase; however, this effect was not pronounced when Ca exceeded 320 ppm.}, }
@article {pmid29321574, year = {2018}, author = {Rothacker, L and Dosseto, A and Francke, A and Chivas, AR and Vigier, N and Kotarba-Morley, AM and Menozzi, D}, title = {Impact of climate change and human activity on soil landscapes over the past 12,300 years.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {247}, pmid = {29321574}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Soils are key to ecosystems and human societies, and their critical importance requires a better understanding of how they evolve through time. However, identifying the role of natural climate change versus human activity (e.g. agriculture) on soil evolution is difficult. Here we show that for most of the past 12,300 years soil erosion and development were impacted differently by natural climate variability, as recorded by sediments deposited in Lake Dojran (Macedonia/Greece): short-lived (< 1,000 years) climatic shifts had no effect on soil development but impacted soil erosion. This decoupling disappeared between 3,500 and 3,100 years ago, when the sedimentary record suggests an unprecedented erosion event associated with the development of agriculture in the region. Our results show unambiguously how differently soils evolved under natural climate variability (between 12,300 and 3,500 years ago) and later in response to intensifying human impact. The transition from natural to anthropogenic landscape started just before, or at, the onset of the Greek 'Dark Ages' (~3,200 cal yr BP). This could represent the earliest recorded sign of a negative feedback between civilization and environmental impact, where the development of agriculture impacted soil resources, which in turn resulted in a slowdown of civilization expansion.}, }
@article {pmid29317829, year = {2017}, author = {Short, EE and Caminade, C and Thomas, BN}, title = {Climate Change Contribution to the Emergence or Re-Emergence of Parasitic Diseases.}, journal = {Infectious diseases}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {1178633617732296}, pmid = {29317829}, issn = {1178-6337}, abstract = {The connection between our environment and parasitic diseases may not always be straightforward, but it exists nonetheless. This article highlights how climate as a component of our environment, or more specifically climate change, has the capability to drive parasitic disease incidence and prevalence worldwide. There are both direct and indirect implications of climate change on the scope and distribution of parasitic organisms and their associated vectors and host species. We aim to encompass a large body of literature to demonstrate how a changing climate will perpetuate, or perhaps exacerbate, public health issues and economic stagnation due to parasitic diseases. The diseases examined include those caused by ingested protozoa and soil helminths, malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, babesiosis, schistosomiasis, and echinococcus, as well as parasites affecting livestock. It is our goal to impress on the scientific community the magnitude a changing climate can have on public health in relation to parasitic disease burden. Once impending climate changes are now upon us, and as we see these events unfold, it is critical to create management plans that will protect the health and quality of life of the people living in the communities that will be significantly affected.}, }
@article {pmid29316685, year = {2018}, author = {Sun, Y and Han, Z}, title = {Climate Change Risk Perception in Taiwan: Correlation with Individual and Societal Factors.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {29316685}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Climate Change ; Educational Status ; Female ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Politics ; *Public Opinion ; *Religion and Psychology ; *Social Environment ; Taiwan ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {This study differentiates the risk perception and influencing factors of climate change along the dimensions of global severity and personal threat. Using the 2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSGS) data (N = 2001) as a representative sample of adults from Taiwan, we investigated the influencing factors of the risk perceptions of climate change in these two dimensions (global severity and personal threat). Logistic regression models were used to examine the correlations of individual factors (gender, age, education, climate-related disaster experience and risk awareness, marital status, employment status, household income, and perceived social status) and societal factors (religion, organizational embeddedness, and political affiliations) with the above two dimensions. The results demonstrate that climate-related disaster experience has no significant impact on either the perception of global severity or the perception of personal impact. However, climate-related risk awareness (regarding typhoons, in particular) is positively associated with both dimensions of the perceived risks of climate change. With higher education, individuals are more concerned about global severity than personal threat. Regarding societal factors, the supporters of political parties have higher risk perceptions of climate change than people who have no party affiliation. Religious believers have higher risk perceptions of personal threat than non-religious people. This paper ends with a discussion about the effectiveness of efforts to enhance risk perception of climate change with regard to global severity and personal threat.}, }
@article {pmid29315515, year = {2018}, author = {Andriuzzi, WS and Adams, BJ and Barrett, JE and Virginia, RA and Wall, DH}, title = {Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {99}, number = {2}, pages = {312-321}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.2090}, pmid = {29315515}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Soil/*chemistry ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna.}, }
@article {pmid29315309, year = {2018}, author = {Ullah, H and Nagelkerken, I and Goldenberg, SU and Fordham, DA}, title = {Climate change could drive marine food web collapse through altered trophic flows and cyanobacterial proliferation.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {e2003446}, pmid = {29315309}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; Biomass ; Climate Change/*economics ; Computer Simulation ; Cyanobacteria/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Energy Transfer ; *Food Chain ; Global Warming/economics ; Homeostasis ; }, abstract = {Global warming and ocean acidification are forecast to exert significant impacts on marine ecosystems worldwide. However, most of these projections are based on ecological proxies or experiments on single species or simplified food webs. How energy fluxes are likely to change in marine food webs in response to future climates remains unclear, hampering forecasts of ecosystem functioning. Using a sophisticated mesocosm experiment, we model energy flows through a species-rich multilevel food web, with live habitats, natural abiotic variability, and the potential for intra- and intergenerational adaptation. We show experimentally that the combined stress of acidification and warming reduced energy flows from the first trophic level (primary producers and detritus) to the second (herbivores), and from the second to the third trophic level (carnivores). Warming in isolation also reduced the energy flow from herbivores to carnivores, the efficiency of energy transfer from primary producers and detritus to herbivores and detritivores, and the living biomass of detritivores, herbivores, and carnivores. Whilst warming and acidification jointly boosted primary producer biomass through an expansion of cyanobacteria, this biomass was converted to detritus rather than to biomass at higher trophic levels-i.e., production was constrained to the base of the food web. In contrast, ocean acidification affected the food web positively by enhancing trophic flow from detritus and primary producers to herbivores, and by increasing the biomass of carnivores. Our results show how future climate change can potentially weaken marine food webs through reduced energy flow to higher trophic levels and a shift towards a more detritus-based system, leading to food web simplification and altered producer-consumer dynamics, both of which have important implications for the structuring of benthic communities.}, }
@article {pmid29314017, year = {2018}, author = {Housset, JM and Nadeau, S and Isabel, N and Depardieu, C and Duchesne, I and Lenz, P and Girardin, MP}, title = {Tree rings provide a new class of phenotypes for genetic associations that foster insights into adaptation of conifers to climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {218}, number = {2}, pages = {630-645}, pmid = {29314017}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; *Genetic Association Studies ; Genotype ; Geography ; Molecular Sequence Annotation ; Phenotype ; Pinus/*genetics/*physiology ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide/genetics ; Quantitative Trait, Heritable ; Quebec ; Trees/*genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Local adaptation in tree species has been documented through a long history of common garden experiments where functional traits (height, bud phenology) are used as proxies for fitness. However, the ability to identify genes or genomic regions related to adaptation to climate requires the evaluation of traits that precisely reflect how and when climate exerts selective constraints. We combine dendroecology with association genetics to establish a link between genotypes, phenotypes and interannual climatic fluctuations. We illustrate this approach by examining individual tree responses embedded in the annual rings of 233 Pinus strobus trees growing in a common garden experiment representing 38 populations from the majority of its range. We found that interannual variability in growth was affected by low temperatures during spring and autumn, and by summer heat and drought. Among-population variation in climatic sensitivity was significantly correlated with the mean annual temperature of the provenance, suggesting local adaptation. Genotype-phenotype associations using these new tree-ring phenotypes validated nine candidate genes identified in a previous genetic-environment association study. Combining dendroecology with association genetics allowed us to assess tree vulnerability to past climate at fine temporal scales and provides avenues for future genomic studies on functional adaptation in forest trees.}, }
@article {pmid29313368, year = {2017}, author = {Heng, N}, title = {Tackling the health impacts of climate change in the twenty-first century.}, journal = {Medicine, conflict, and survival}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {306-318}, doi = {10.1080/13623699.2017.1420409}, pmid = {29313368}, issn = {1362-3699}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases ; Environment ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Humans ; Public Health ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The turn of the twenty-first century has borne witness to the seemingly relentless march of climate change, with global mean temperatures and sea levels projected to rise significantly in the near future. Despite considerable improvements in healthcare, mortality rates and life expectancy worldwide over the past few decades, there is increasing evidence postulating the potentially adverse impacts of environmental alterations on health in more ways than one. These not only involve direct and indirect climatic-related health impacts, but also those modulated by human aspects. Undeniably, there is a pressing need to recognize these issues and come up with appropriate solutions to address them as much as possible. Fortunately, this has led to the development of a wide range of measures encompassing both adaptation and mitigation strategies, alongside the recent Paris accords which highlight renewed global resolve in tackling these challenges in a collaborative and coordinated manner. However, progress has been relatively muted, and whether these prove to be the turning point remains very much to be seen. Nonetheless, taking the above into consideration, there is little doubt about the gravity of the situation, and that much more needs to be done to integrate and bring society forward in this new era.}, }
@article {pmid29312364, year = {2017}, author = {Nair, VD and Nair, PKR and Dari, B and Freitas, AM and Chatterjee, N and Pinheiro, FM}, title = {Biochar in the Agroecosystem-Climate-Change-Sustainability Nexus.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {2051}, pmid = {29312364}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Interest in the use of biochar in agriculture has increased exponentially during the past decade. Biochar, when applied to soils is reported to enhance soil carbon sequestration and provide other soil productivity benefits such as reduction of bulk density, enhancement of water-holding capacity and nutrient retention, stabilization of soil organic matter, improvement of microbial activities, and heavy-metal sequestration. Furthermore, biochar application could enhance phosphorus availability in highly weathered tropical soils. Converting the locally available feedstocks and farm wastes to biochar could be important under smallholder farming systems as well, and biochar use may have applications in tree nursery production and specialty-crop management. Thus, biochar can contribute substantially to sustainable agriculture. While these benefits and opportunities look attractive, several problems, and bottlenecks remain to be addressed before widespread production and use of biochar becomes popular. The current state of knowledge is based largely on limited small-scale studies under laboratory and greenhouse conditions. Properties of biochar vary with both the feedstock from which it is produced and the method of production. The availability of feedstock as well as the economic merits, energy needs, and environmental risks-if any-of its large-scale production and use remain to be investigated. Nevertheless, available indications suggest that biochar could play a significant role in facing the challenges posed by climate change and threats to agroecosystem sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid29311687, year = {2018}, author = {Liang, HY and Feng, ZP and Pei, B and Li, Y and Yang, XT}, title = {Demographic expansion of two Tamarix species along the Yellow River caused by geological events and climate change in the Pleistocene.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {60}, pmid = {29311687}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; China ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Chloroplast ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; Geography ; *Geological Phenomena ; Haplotypes ; Population Density ; Rivers ; *Tamaricaceae/classification/genetics ; }, abstract = {The geological events and climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene played important roles in shaping patterns of species distribution. However, few studies have evaluated the patterns of species distribution that were influenced by the Yellow River. The present work analyzed the demography of two endemic tree species that are widely distributed along the Yellow River, Tamarix austromongolica and Tamarix chinensis, to understand the role of the Yellow River and Pleistocene climate in shaping their distribution patterns. The most common chlorotype, chlorotype 1, was found in all populations, and its divergence time could be dated back to 0.19 million years ago (Ma). This dating coincides well with the formation of the modern Yellow River and the timing of Marine Isotope Stages 5e-6 (MIS 5e-6). Bayesian reconstructions along with models of paleodistribution revealed that these two species experienced a demographic expansion in population size during the Quaternary period. Approximate Bayesian computation analyses supported a scenario of expansion approximately from the upper to lower reaches of the Yellow River. Our results provide support for the roles of the Yellow River and the Pleistocene climate in driving demographic expansion of the populations of T. austromongolica and T. chinensis. These findings are useful for understanding the effects of geological events and past climatic fluctuations on species distribution patterns.}, }
@article {pmid29311564, year = {2018}, author = {Wallmann, K and Riedel, M and Hong, WL and Patton, H and Hubbard, A and Pape, T and Hsu, CW and Schmidt, C and Johnson, JE and Torres, ME and Andreassen, K and Berndt, C and Bohrmann, G}, title = {Gas hydrate dissociation off Svalbard induced by isostatic rebound rather than global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {83}, pmid = {29311564}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Methane seepage from the upper continental slopes of Western Svalbard has previously been attributed to gas hydrate dissociation induced by anthropogenic warming of ambient bottom waters. Here we show that sediment cores drilled off Prins Karls Foreland contain freshwater from dissociating hydrates. However, our modeling indicates that the observed pore water freshening began around 8 ka BP when the rate of isostatic uplift outpaced eustatic sea-level rise. The resultant local shallowing and lowering of hydrostatic pressure forced gas hydrate dissociation and dissolved chloride depletions consistent with our geochemical analysis. Hence, we propose that hydrate dissociation was triggered by postglacial isostatic rebound rather than anthropogenic warming. Furthermore, we show that methane fluxes from dissociating hydrates were considerably smaller than present methane seepage rates implying that gas hydrates were not a major source of methane to the oceans, but rather acted as a dynamic seal, regulating methane release from deep geological reservoirs.}, }
@article {pmid29310508, year = {2018}, author = {Chirico, F}, title = {Comments on "Climate Change and Public Health: A Small Frame Obscures the Picture".}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {5-7}, doi = {10.1177/1048291117752463}, pmid = {29310508}, issn = {1541-3772}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid29307030, year = {2018}, author = {O'Donnell, S}, title = {The neurobiology of climate change.}, journal = {Die Naturwissenschaften}, volume = {105}, number = {1-2}, pages = {11}, pmid = {29307030}, issn = {1432-1904}, support = {Startup funds//Drexel University/ ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Nervous System Physiological Phenomena ; Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.}, }
@article {pmid29306827, year = {2018}, author = {Bajracharya, AR and Bajracharya, SR and Shrestha, AB and Maharjan, SB}, title = {Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {625}, number = {}, pages = {837-848}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.332}, pmid = {29306827}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region is an important global freshwater resource. The hydrological regime of the region is vulnerable to climatic variations, especially precipitation and temperature. In our study, we modelled the impact of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the snow dominated Kaligandaki Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for a future projection of changes in the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki basin based on Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's (CMIP5) General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. It is predicted to be a rise in the average annual temperature of over 4°C, and an increase in the average annual precipitation of over 26% by the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. Modeling results show these will lead to significant changes in the basin's water balance and hydrological regime. In particular, a 50% increase in discharge is expected at the outlet of the basin. Snowmelt contribution will largely be affected by climate change, and it is projected to increase by 90% by 2090.Water availability in the basin is not likely to decrease during the 21st century. The study demonstrates that the important water balance components of snowmelt, evapotranspiration, and water yield at higher elevations in the upper and middle sub-basins of the Kaligandaki Basin will be most affected by the increasing temperatures and precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid29306663, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, B and Li, G and Ma, Y and Pan, X}, title = {Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {162}, number = {}, pages = {152-159}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2017.12.027}, pmid = {29306663}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Beijing ; *Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality ; China ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Mortality ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities.}, }
@article {pmid29306145, year = {2018}, author = {Mitter, H and Schönhart, M and Larcher, M and Schmid, E}, title = {The Stimuli-Actions-Effects-Responses (SAER)-framework for exploring perceived relationships between private and public climate change adaptation in agriculture.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {209}, number = {}, pages = {286-300}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.12.063}, pmid = {29306145}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Austria ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Humans ; Public Opinion ; *Public-Private Sector Partnerships ; }, abstract = {Empirical findings on actors' roles and responsibilities in the climate change adaptation process are rare even though cooperation between private and public actors is perceived important to foster adaptation in agriculture. We therefore developed the framework SAER (Stimuli-Actions-Effects-Responses) to investigate perceived relationships between private and public climate change adaptation in agriculture at regional scale. In particular, we explore agricultural experts' perceptions on (i) climatic and non-climatic factors stimulating private adaptation, (ii) farm adaption actions, (iii) potential on-farm and off-farm effects from adaptation, and (iv) the relationships between private and public adaptation. The SAER-framework is built on a comprehensive literature review and empirical findings from semi-structured interviews with agricultural experts from two case study regions in Austria. We find that private adaptation is perceived as incremental, systemic or transformational. It is typically stimulated by a mix of bio-physical and socio-economic on-farm and off-farm factors. Stimulating factors related to climate change are perceived of highest relevance for systemic and transformational adaptation whereas already implemented adaptation is mostly perceived to be incremental. Perceived effects of private adaptation are related to the environment, weather and climate, quality and quantity of agricultural products as well as human, social and economic resources. Our results also show that public adaptation can influence factors stimulating private adaptation as well as adaptation effects through the design and development of the legal, policy and organizational environment as well as the provision of educational, informational, financial, and technical infrastructure. Hence, facilitating existing and new collaborations between private and public actors may enable farmers to adapt effectively to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29302132, year = {2018}, author = {Challinor, AJ and Müller, C and Asseng, S and Deva, C and Nicklin, KJ and Wallach, D and Vanuytrecht, E and Whitfield, S and Ramirez-Villegas, J and Koehler, AK}, title = {Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Agricultural systems}, volume = {159}, number = {}, pages = {296-306}, pmid = {29302132}, issn = {0308-521X}, support = {BB/K010476/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions underlying these ranges are not always clear. We suggest that the contingency of results upon assumptions is made explicit via a common uncertainty reporting format; and/or that studies are assessed against a set of criteria, such as those presented in this paper.}, }
@article {pmid29301999, year = {2018}, author = {Fitzpatrick, MJ and Edelsparre, AH}, title = {The genomics of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {359}, number = {6371}, pages = {29-30}, doi = {10.1126/science.aar3920}, pmid = {29301999}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Genomics ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid29299265, year = {2017}, author = {Klockmann, M and Fischer, K}, title = {Effects of temperature and drought on early life stages in three species of butterflies: Mortality of early life stages as a key determinant of vulnerability to climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {24}, pages = {10871-10879}, pmid = {29299265}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change poses substantial challenges to biodiversity conservation. Well-documented responses include phenological and range shifts, and declines in cold but increases in warm-adapted species. Thus, some species will suffer while others will benefit from ongoing change, although the biological features determining the prospects of a given species under climate change are largely unknown. By comparing three related butterfly species of different vulnerability to climate change, we show that stress tolerance during early development may be of key importance. The arguably most vulnerable species showed the strongest decline in egg hatching success under heat and desiccation stress, and similar pattern also for hatchling mortality. Research, especially on insects, is often focussed on the adult stage only. Thus, collating more data on stress tolerance in different life stages will be of crucial importance for enhancing our abilities to predict the fate of particular species and populations under ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29299232, year = {2017}, author = {Saalfeld, ST and Lanctot, RB}, title = {Multispecies comparisons of adaptability to climate change: A role for life-history characteristics?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {24}, pages = {10492-10502}, pmid = {29299232}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Phenological advancement allows individuals to adapt to climate change by timing life-history events to the availability of key resources so that individual fitness is maximized. However, different trophic levels may respond to changes in their environment at different rates, potentially leading to a phenological mismatch. This may be especially apparent in the highly seasonal arctic environment that is experiencing the effects of climate change more so than any other region. During a 14-year study near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological advancement in egg laying in relation to snowmelt for eight arctic-breeding shorebirds and investigated potential linkages to species-specific life-history characteristics. We found that snowmelt advanced 0.8 days/year-six times faster than the prior 60-year period. During this same time, six of the eight species exhibited phenological advancement in laying dates (varying among species from 0.1 to 0.9 days earlier per year), although no species appeared capable of keeping pace with advancing snowmelt. Phenological changes were likely the result of high phenotypic plasticity, as all species investigated in this study showed high interannual variability in lay dates. Commonality among species with similar response rates to timing of snowmelt suggests that nesting later and having an opportunistic settlement strategy may increase the adaptability of some species to changing climate conditions. Other life-history characteristics, such as migration strategy, previous site experience, and mate fidelity did not influence the ability of individuals to advance laying dates. As a failure to advance egg laying is likely to result in greater phenological mismatch, our study provides an initial assessment of the relative risk of species to long-term climatic changes.}, }
@article {pmid29298137, year = {2018}, author = {Beaugrand, G and Kirby, RR}, title = {How Do Marine Pelagic Species Respond to Climate Change? Theories and Observations.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {169-197}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063304}, pmid = {29298137}, issn = {1941-0611}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {In this review, we show how climate affects species, communities, and ecosystems, and why many responses from the species to the biome level originate from the interaction between the species' ecological niche and changes in the environmental regime in both space and time. We describe a theory that allows us to understand and predict how marine species react to climate-induced changes in ecological conditions, how communities form and are reconfigured, and so how biodiversity is arranged and may respond to climate change. Our study shows that the responses of species to climate change are therefore intelligible-that is, they have a strong deterministic component and can be predicted.}, }
@article {pmid29295938, year = {2018}, author = {}, title = {Correction for Singh et al., Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {2}, pages = {E342}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1721679115}, pmid = {29295938}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid29291568, year = {2018}, author = {Zhao, Z and Dong, S and Jiang, X and Zhao, J and Liu, S and Yang, M and Han, Y and Sha, W}, title = {Are land use and short time climate change effective on soil carbon compositions and their relationships with soil properties in alpine grassland ecosystems on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {625}, number = {}, pages = {539-546}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.206}, pmid = {29291568}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Fencing and grass plantation are two key interventions to preserve the degraded grassland on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Climate warming and N deposition have substantially affected the alpine grassland ecosystems. However, molecular composition of soil organic carbon (SOC), the indicator of degradation of SOC, and its responses to climate change are still largely unclear. In this study, we conducted the experiments in three types of land use on the QTP: alpine meadow (AM), alpine steppe (AS), and cultivated grassland (CG) under 2°C climatic warming, 5 levels of nitrogen deposition rates at 8, 24, 40, 56, and 72kg N ha[-1]year[-1], as well as a combination of climatic warming and N deposition (8kg N ha[-1]year[-1]). Our findings indicate that all three types of land use were dominated by O-alkyl carbon. The alkyl/O-alkyl ratio, aromaticity and hydrophobicity index of the CG were larger than those of the AM and AS, and this difference was generally stable under different treatments. Most of the SOC in the alpine grasslands was derived from fresh plants, and the carbon in the CG was more stable than that in the AM and AS. The compositions of all the alpine ecosystems were stable under short-term climatic changes, suggesting the short-term climate warming and nitrogen deposition likely did not affect the molecular composition of the SOC in the restored grasslands.}, }
@article {pmid29291453, year = {2018}, author = {Lindborg, T and Thorne, M and Andersson, E and Becker, J and Brandefelt, J and Cabianca, T and Gunia, M and Ikonen, ATK and Johansson, E and Kangasniemi, V and Kautsky, U and Kirchner, G and Klos, R and Kowe, R and Kontula, A and Kupiainen, P and Lahdenperä, AM and Lord, NS and Lunt, DJ and Näslund, JO and Nordén, M and Norris, S and Pérez-Sánchez, D and Proverbio, A and Riekki, K and Rübel, A and Sweeck, L and Walke, R and Xu, S and Smith, G and Pröhl, G}, title = {Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA.}, journal = {Journal of environmental radioactivity}, volume = {183}, number = {}, pages = {41-53}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvrad.2017.12.006}, pmid = {29291453}, issn = {1879-1700}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Radiation Monitoring ; Radioactive Waste/*analysis ; Radioactivity ; Refuse Disposal/*methods ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The work has been supported by results of parallel on-going research that has been published in a variety of reports and peer reviewed journal articles. The project is due to be described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Noting the multi-disciplinary nature of post-closure safety assessments, here, an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radiological safety assessment with a review of the work that has been undertaken. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of climate change and landscape development within an overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: identification of the key processes that drive environmental change (mainly those associated with climate and climate change), and description of how a relevant future may develop on a global scale; development of a methodology for characterising environmental change that is valid on a global scale, showing how modelled global changes in climate can be downscaled to provide information that may be needed for characterising environmental change in site-specific assessments, and illustrating different aspects of the methodology in a number of case studies that show the evolution of site characteristics and the implications for the dose assessment models. Overall, the study has shown that quantitative climate and landscape modelling has now developed to the stage that it can be used to define an envelope of climate and landscape change scenarios at specific sites and under specific greenhouse-gas emissions assumptions that is suitable for use in quantitative post-closure performance assessments. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but are projections based on a well-established understanding of the important processes involved and their impacts on different types of landscape. Such projections support the understanding of, and selection of, plausible ranges of scenarios for use in post-closure safety assessments.}, }
@article {pmid29291051, year = {2017}, author = {Greenville, AC and Wardle, GM and Dickman, CR}, title = {Desert mammal populations are limited by introduced predators rather than future climate change.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {4}, number = {11}, pages = {170384}, pmid = {29291051}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to place up to one in six species at risk of extinction in coming decades, but extinction probability is likely to be influenced further by biotic interactions such as predation. We use structural equation modelling to integrate results from remote camera trapping and long-term (17-22 years) regional-scale (8000 km[2]) datasets on vegetation and small vertebrates (greater than 38 880 captures) to explore how biotic processes and two key abiotic drivers influence the structure of a diverse assemblage of desert biota in central Australia. We use our models to predict how changes in rainfall and wildfire are likely to influence the cover and productivity of the dominant vegetation and the impacts of predators on their primary rodent prey over a 100-year timeframe. Our results show that, while vegetation cover may decline due to climate change, the strongest negative effect on prey populations in this desert system is top-down suppression from introduced predators.}, }
@article {pmid29290644, year = {2018}, author = {Agne, MC and Beedlow, PA and Shaw, DC and Woodruff, DR and Lee, EH and Cline, SP and Comeleo, RL}, title = {Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of western Oregon and Washington, U.S.A.}, journal = {Forest ecology and management}, volume = {409}, number = {}, pages = {317-332}, pmid = {29290644}, issn = {0378-1127}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Forest disturbance regimes are beginning to show evidence of climate-mediated changes, such as increasing severity of droughts and insect outbreaks. We review the major insects and pathogens affecting the disturbance regime for coastal Douglas-fir forests in western Oregon and Washington State, USA, and ask how future climate changes may influence their role in disturbance ecology. Although the physiological constraints of light, temperature, and moisture largely control tree growth, episodic and chronic disturbances interacting with biological factors have substantial impacts on the structure and functioning of forest ecosystems in this region. Understanding insect and disease interactions is critical to predicting forest response to climate change and the consequences for ecosystem services, such as timber, clean water, fish and wildlife. We focused on future predictions for warmer wetter winters, hotter drier summers, and elevated atmospheric CO2 to hypothesize the response of Douglas-fir forests to the major insects and diseases influencing this forest type: Douglas-fir beetle, Swiss needle cast, black stain root disease, and laminated root rot. We hypothesize that 1) Douglas-fir beetle and black stain root disease could become more prevalent with increasing, fire, temperature stress, and moisture stress, 2) future impacts of Swiss needle cast are difficult to predict due to uncertainties in May-July leaf wetness, but warmer winters could contribute to intensification at higher elevations, and 3) laminated root rot will be influenced primarily by forest management, rather than climatic change. Furthermore, these biotic disturbance agents interact in complex ways that are poorly understood. Consequently, to inform management decisions, insect and disease influences on disturbance regimes must be characterized specifically by forest type and region in order to accurately capture these interactions in light of future climate-mediated changes.}, }
@article {pmid29288221, year = {2018}, author = {Murari, KK and Jayaraman, T and Swaminathan, M}, title = {Climate change and agricultural suicides in India.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {2}, pages = {E115}, pmid = {29288221}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; India ; Suicide ; }, }
@article {pmid29282537, year = {2017}, author = {Jach, R and Knutelski, S and Uchman, A and Hercman, H and Dohnalik, M}, title = {Subfossil markers of climate change during the Roman Warm Period of the late Holocene.}, journal = {Die Naturwissenschaften}, volume = {105}, number = {1-2}, pages = {6}, pmid = {29282537}, issn = {1432-1904}, support = {K/ZDS/007303//Uniwersytet Jagiello&#x144;ski w Krakowie/ ; K/ZDS/006320//Uniwersytet Jagiello&#x144;ski w Krakowie/ ; K/ZDS/007305//Uniwersytet Jagiello&#x144;ski w Krakowie/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Biomarkers ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/*physiology ; Mites/physiology ; Poland ; Quercus ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Abundant bog oak trunks occur in alluvial deposits of the Raba River in the village of Targowisko (southern Poland). Several of them contain galleries of the great capricorn beetle (Cerambyx cerdo L.). A well-preserved subfossil larva and pupa, as well as adults of this species, are concealed in some of the galleries. These galleries co-occur with boring galleries of other insects such as ship-timber beetles (Lymexylidae) and metallic wood borers (Buprestidae). A dry larva of a stag beetle (Lucanidae) and a mite (Acari) have been found in the C. cerdo galleries. Selected samples of the trunks and a sample of the C. cerdo larva were dated, using radiocarbon and dendrochronological methods, to the period from 45 BC to AD 554; one sample was dated to the period from 799 to 700 BC. Accumulation of the channel alluvia containing the bog oak trunks is synchronous with the Roman Warm Period (late antiquity/Early Mediaeval times). The most recent part of this period correlates with massive accumulations of fallen oak trunks noted from various river valleys in the Carpathian region and dated to AD 450-570. The results indicate that C. cerdo was more abundant within the study area during the Roman Warm Period than it is today.}, }
@article {pmid29281669, year = {2017}, author = {Finné, M and Holmgren, K and Shen, CC and Hu, HM and Boyd, M and Stocker, S}, title = {Late Bronze Age climate change and the destruction of the Mycenaean Palace of Nestor at Pylos.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {e0189447}, pmid = {29281669}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Archaeology ; *Climate Change ; Fossils ; Greece ; Radiometric Dating ; }, abstract = {This paper offers new high-resolution oxygen and carbon isotope data from Stalagmite S1 from Mavri Trypa Cave, SW Peloponnese. Our data provide the climate background to the destruction of the nearby Mycenaean Palace of Nestor at Pylos at the transition from Late Helladic (LH) IIIB to LH IIIC, ~3150-3130 years before present (before AD 1950, hereafter yrs BP) and the subsequent period. S1 is dated by 24 U-Th dates with an averaged precision of ±26 yrs (2σ), providing one of the most robust paleoclimate records from the eastern Mediterranean for the end of the Late Bronze Age (LBA). The δ18O record shows generally wetter conditions at the time when the Palace of Nestor at Pylos was destroyed, but a brief period of drier conditions around 3200 yrs BP may have disrupted the Mycenaean agricultural system that at the time was likely operating close to its limit. Gradually developing aridity after 3150 yrs BP, i.e. subsequent to the destruction, probably reduced crop yields and helped to erode the basis for the reinstitution of a central authority and the Palace itself.}, }
@article {pmid29280238, year = {2018}, author = {Gomez-Casanovas, N and DeLucia, NJ and Bernacchi, CJ and Boughton, EH and Sparks, JP and Chamberlain, SD and DeLucia, EH}, title = {Grazing alters net ecosystem C fluxes and the global warming potential of a subtropical pasture.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {557-572}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1670}, pmid = {29280238}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; Cattle ; *Global Warming ; *Herbivory ; Methane/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The impact of grazing on C fluxes from pastures in subtropical and tropical regions and on the environment is uncertain, although these systems account for a substantial portion of global C storage. We investigated how cattle grazing influences net ecosystem CO2 and CH4 exchange in subtropical pastures using the eddy covariance technique. Measurements were made over several wet-dry seasonal cycles in a grazed pasture, and in an adjacent pasture during the first three years of grazer exclusion. Grazing increased soil wetness but did not affect soil temperature. By removing aboveground biomass, grazing decreased ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross primary productivity (GPP). As the decrease in Reco was larger than the reduction in GPP, grazing consistently increased the net CO2 sink strength of subtropical pastures (55, 219 and 187 more C/m[2] in 2013, 2014, and 2015). Enteric ruminant fermentation and increased soil wetness due to grazers, increased total net ecosystem CH4 emissions in grazed relative to ungrazed pasture (27-80%). Unlike temperate, arid, and semiarid pastures, where differences in CH4 emissions between grazed and ungrazed pastures are mainly driven by enteric ruminant fermentation, our results showed that the effect of grazing on soil CH4 emissions can be greater than CH4 produced by cattle. Thus, our results suggest that the interactions between grazers and soil hydrology affecting soil CH4 emissions play an important role in determining the environmental impacts of this management practice in a subtropical pasture. Although grazing increased total net ecosystem CH4 emissions and removed aboveground biomass, it increased the net storage of C and decreased the global warming potential associated with C fluxes of pasture by increasing its net CO2 sink strength.}, }
@article {pmid29279381, year = {2018}, author = {Vitasse, Y and Signarbieux, C and Fu, YH}, title = {Global warming leads to more uniform spring phenology across elevations.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {115}, number = {5}, pages = {1004-1008}, pmid = {29279381}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Global Warming ; Models, Biological ; Plant Leaves/*growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Seasons ; Switzerland ; Temperature ; Trees/*growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {One hundred years ago, Andrew D. Hopkins estimated the progressive delay in tree leaf-out with increasing latitude, longitude, and elevation, referred to as "Hopkins' bioclimatic law." What if global warming is altering this well-known law? Here, based on ∼20,000 observations of the leaf-out date of four common temperate tree species located in 128 sites at various elevations in the European Alps, we found that the elevation-induced phenological shift (EPS) has significantly declined from 34 d⋅1,000 m[-1] conforming to Hopkins' bioclimatic law in 1960, to 22 d⋅1,000 m[-1] in 2016, i.e., -35%. The stronger phenological advance at higher elevations, responsible for the reduction in EPS, is most likely to be connected to stronger warming during late spring as well as to warmer winter temperatures. Indeed, under similar spring temperatures, we found that the EPS was substantially reduced in years when the previous winter was warmer. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining EPS over the last six decades. Future climate warming may further reduce the EPS with consequences for the structure and function of mountain forest ecosystems, in particular through changes in plant-animal interactions, but the actual impact of such ongoing change is today largely unknown.}, }
@article {pmid29278346, year = {2017}, author = {Macpherson, CC and Wynia, M}, title = {Should Health Professionals Speak Up to Reduce the Health Risks of Climate Change?.}, journal = {AMA journal of ethics}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {1202-1210}, doi = {10.1001/journalofethics.2017.19.12.msoc1-1712}, pmid = {29278346}, issn = {2376-6980}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; Humans ; Patient Advocacy ; *Physicians/ethics ; *Political Activism ; Politics ; *Public Health ; Risk ; Social Responsibility ; }, abstract = {Should physicians take action in the political realm to address climate change? There are many historical examples of physician advocacy in the political sphere, both individually and as a collective, and many have argued that it is important for health professionals to advocate on a variety of issues. But which criteria should be used to determine when and how health professionals should take on particular advocacy issues, and is climate change an appropriate-or even obligatory-arena for physician advocacy? We propose a seven-part deliberative framework for making this determination.}, }
@article {pmid29278344, year = {2017}, author = {Lehmann, LS}, title = {Is Editing the Genome for Climate Change Adaptation Ethically Justifiable?.}, journal = {AMA journal of ethics}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {1186-1192}, doi = {10.1001/journalofethics.2017.19.12.stas1-1712}, pmid = {29278344}, issn = {2376-6980}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Family Characteristics ; Gene Editing/*ethics ; Genetic Enhancement/*ethics ; *Genome, Human ; Humans ; Morals ; Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; Safety ; Social Responsibility ; }, abstract = {As climate change progresses, we humans might have to inhabit a world for which we are increasingly maladapted. If we were able to identify genes that directly influence our ability to thrive in a changing climate, would it be ethically justifiable to edit the human genome to enhance our ability to adapt to this new environment? Should we use gene editing not only to prevent significant disease but also to enhance our ability to function in the world? Here I suggest a "4-S framework" for analyzing the justifiability of gene editing that includes these considerations: (1) safety, (2) significance of harm to be averted, (3) succeeding generations, and (4) social consequences.}, }
@article {pmid29278341, year = {2017}, author = {Brown, BP and Chor, J}, title = {What Are Risks and Benefits of Not Incorporating Information about Population Growth and Its Impact on Climate Change into Reproductive Care?.}, journal = {AMA journal of ethics}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {1157-1163}, doi = {10.1001/journalofethics.2017.19.12.ecas1-1712}, pmid = {29278341}, issn = {2376-6980}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Comprehension ; *Decision Making ; Emotions ; *Ethics, Medical ; Family ; Family Planning Services/*ethics ; Humans ; Informed Consent ; Patient Preference ; Personal Autonomy ; Physician-Patient Relations/*ethics ; Physicians/ethics ; *Population Growth ; Reproduction/*ethics ; Social Control, Informal ; Social Justice ; Social Values ; }, abstract = {Fears about the impact of family planning decisions on the environment are not new. Concerns about population growth have often been conflated with concerns about the increasing demographic influence of specific feared or marginalized groups, leading to subsequent unjust treatment of those targeted populations. In clinical encounters such as this case, in which the patient expresses concerns about having another child in light of the effect of population growth on climate change, it is not appropriate for the clinician to impose environmental protection values on a patient's reproductive decision making, as this risks undermining her autonomy as well as perpetuating injustice. When a patient raises such worries, however, the physician's responsibility is to elicit and try to understand the patient's preferences and then to offer treatment choices that align with those values.}, }
@article {pmid29276803, year = {2017}, author = {Gasparrini, A and Guo, Y and Sera, F and Vicedo-Cabrera, AM and Huber, V and Tong, S and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M and Nascimento Saldiva, PH and Lavigne, E and Matus Correa, P and Valdes Ortega, N and Kan, H and Osorio, S and Kyselý, J and Urban, A and Jaakkola, JJK and Ryti, NRI and Pascal, M and Goodman, PG and Zeka, A and Michelozzi, P and Scortichini, M and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y and Hurtado-Diaz, M and Cesar Cruz, J and Seposo, X and Kim, H and Tobias, A and Iñiguez, C and Forsberg, B and Åström, DO and Ragettli, MS and Guo, YL and Wu, CF and Zanobetti, A and Schwartz, J and Bell, ML and Dang, TN and Van, DD and Heaviside, C and Vardoulakis, S and Hajat, S and Haines, A and Armstrong, B}, title = {Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Lancet. Planetary health}, volume = {1}, number = {9}, pages = {e360-e367}, pmid = {29276803}, issn = {2542-5196}, support = {MR/M022625/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates.<br><br>METHODS: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes.<br><br>FINDINGS: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85&#x2008;879&#x2008;895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1&#xb7;2% (empirical 95% CI -3&#xb7;6 to 1&#xb7;4) in Australia to -0&#xb7;1% (-2&#xb7;1 to 1&#xb7;6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3&#xb7;0% (-3&#xb7;0 to 9&#xb7;3) in Central America to 12&#xb7;7% (-4&#xb7;7 to 28&#xb7;1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.<br><br>FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.}, }
@article {pmid29274104, year = {2018}, author = {Álvarez-Romero, JG and Munguía-Vega, A and Beger, M and Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, M and Suárez-Castillo, AN and Gurney, GG and Pressey, RL and Gerber, LR and Morzaria-Luna, HN and Reyes-Bonilla, H and Adams, VM and Kolb, M and Graham, EM and VanDerWal, J and Castillo-López, A and Hinojosa-Arango, G and Petatán-Ramírez, D and Moreno-Baez, M and Godínez-Reyes, CR and Torre, J}, title = {Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {e671-e691}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13989}, pmid = {29274104}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; California ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Fishes ; *Global Warming ; Larva/physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Plankton/physiology ; }, abstract = {Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.}, }
@article {pmid29273800, year = {2017}, author = {Sullivan, RC and Levy, RC and da Silva, AM and Pryor, SC}, title = {Developing and diagnosing climate change indicators of regional aerosol optical properties.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {18093}, pmid = {29273800}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Given the importance of aerosol particles to radiative transfer via aerosol-radiation interactions, a methodology for tracking and diagnosing causes of temporal changes in regional-scale aerosol populations is illustrated. The aerosol optical properties tracked include estimates of total columnar burden (aerosol optical depth, AOD), dominant size mode (Ångström exponent, AE), and relative magnitude of radiation scattering versus absorption (single scattering albedo, SSA), along with metrics of the structure of the spatial field of these properties. Over well-defined regions of North America, there are generally negative temporal trends in mean and extreme AOD, and SSA. These are consistent with lower aerosol burdens and transition towards a relatively absorbing aerosol, driven primarily by declining sulfur dioxide emissions. Conversely, more remote regions are characterized by increasing mean and extreme AOD that is attributed to increased local wildfire emissions and long-range (transcontinental) transport. Regional and national reductions in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursors are leading to declining spatial autocorrelation in the aerosol fields and increased importance of local anthropogenic emissions in dictating aerosol burdens. However, synoptic types associated with high aerosol burdens are intensifying (becoming more warm and humid), and thus changes in synoptic meteorology may be offsetting aerosol burden reductions associated with emissions legislation.}, }
@article {pmid29267357, year = {2017}, author = {Manchego, CE and Hildebrandt, P and Cueva, J and Espinosa, CI and Stimm, B and Günter, S}, title = {Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {e0190092}, pmid = {29267357}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecuador ; Species Specificity ; Trees/*classification ; }, abstract = {Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium.}, }
@article {pmid29267204, year = {2017}, author = {Sellers, S and Ebi, KL}, title = {Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {29267204}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {P2C HD050924/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Public Health/*trends ; Risk Assessment ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {A growing body of literature addresses how climate change is likely to have substantial and generally adverse effects on population health and health systems around the world. These effects are likely to vary within and between countries and, importantly, will vary depending on different socioeconomic development patterns. Transitioning to a more resilient and sustainable world to prepare for and manage the effects of climate change is likely to result in better health outcomes. Sustained fossil fuel development will likely result in continued high burdens of preventable conditions, such as undernutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases. Using a new set of socioeconomic development trajectories, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), along with the World Health Organization's Operational Framework for Building Climate Resilient Health Systems, we extend existing storylines to illustrate how various aspects of health systems are likely to be affected under each SSP. We also discuss the implications of our findings on how the burden of mortality and the achievement of health-related Sustainable Development Goal targets are likely to vary under different SSPs.}, }
@article {pmid29265499, year = {2018}, author = {Pau, S and Okamoto, DK and Calderón, O and Wright, SJ}, title = {Long-term increases in tropical flowering activity across growth forms in response to rising CO2 and climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {2105-2116}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14004}, pmid = {29265499}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Flowers/*physiology ; *Forests ; Reproduction ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Mounting evidence suggests that anthropogenic global change is altering plant species composition in tropical forests. Fewer studies, however, have focused on long-term trends in reproductive activity, in part because of the lack of data from tropical sites. Here, we analyze a 28-year record of tropical flower phenology in response to anthropogenic climate and atmospheric change. We show that a multidecadal increase in flower activity is most strongly associated with rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations using yearly aggregated data. Compared to significant climatic factors, CO2 had on average an approximately three-, four-, or fivefold stronger effect than rainfall, solar radiation, and the Multivariate ENSO Index, respectively. Peaks in flower activity were associated with greater solar radiation and lower rainfall during El Niño years. The effect of atmospheric CO2 on flowering has diminished over the most recent decade for lianas and canopy trees, whereas flowering of midstory trees and shrub species continued to increase with rising CO2 . Increases in flowering were accompanied by a lengthening of flowering duration for canopy and midstory trees. Understory treelets did not show increases in flowering but did show increases in duration. Given that atmospheric CO2 will likely continue to climb over the next century, a long-term increase in flowering activity may persist in some growth forms until checked by nutrient limitation or by climate change through rising temperatures, increasing drought frequency and/or increasing cloudiness and reduced insolation.}, }
@article {pmid29263386, year = {2017}, author = {Adachi, SA and Nishizawa, S and Yoshida, R and Yamaura, T and Ando, K and Yashiro, H and Kajikawa, Y and Tomita, H}, title = {Contributions of changes in climatology and perturbation and the resulting nonlinearity to regional climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {2224}, pmid = {29263386}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Future changes in large-scale climatology and perturbation may have different impacts on regional climate change. It is important to understand the impacts of climatology and perturbation in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic changes. Although many studies have investigated the influence of climatology changes on regional climate, the significance of perturbation changes is still debated. The nonlinear effect of these two changes is also unknown. We propose a systematic procedure that extracts the influences of three factors: changes in climatology, changes in perturbation and the resulting nonlinear effect. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the procedure, applying it to future changes in precipitation. All three factors have the same degree of influence, especially for extreme rainfall events. Thus, regional climate assessments should consider not only the climatology change but also the perturbation change and their nonlinearity. This procedure can advance interpretations of future regional climates.}, }
@article {pmid29260232, year = {2017}, author = {Friedrich, MJ}, title = {Latest Report on Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {318}, number = {23}, pages = {2287}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2017.19366}, pmid = {29260232}, issn = {1538-3598}, }
@article {pmid29260070, year = {2017}, author = {Boss, JD and Sosne, G and Tewari, A}, title = {Ocular dirofilariasis: Ophthalmic implication of climate change on vector-borne parasites.}, journal = {American journal of ophthalmology case reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {9-10}, pmid = {29260070}, issn = {2451-9936}, abstract = {PURPOSE: To describe a geographically rare case of ophthalmic dirofilariasis.<br><br>OBSERVATIONS: An 81-year-old male of good socioeconomic status living in the state of Michigan in the United States, presented to the eye clinic with a painful red left eye. He had not traveled outside of the state of Michigan in over three years. He was found to have a 7 cm long subconjunctival roundworm, which was ultimately extracted.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS AND IMPORTANCE: With increasing global temperatures, ocular dirofilariasis is being introduced in more northern climates and should be included in the differential diagnosis in areas previously isolated from these vector-borne parasites.}, }
@article {pmid29258035, year = {2018}, author = {Sahle, M and Saito, O and Fürst, C and Yeshitela, K}, title = {Quantification and mapping of the supply of and demand for carbon storage and sequestration service in woody biomass and soil to mitigate climate change in the socio-ecological environment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {624}, number = {}, pages = {342-354}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.033}, pmid = {29258035}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Ethiopia ; Greenhouse Gases/analysis ; Satellite Imagery ; Soil/*chemistry ; Wood/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {In this study, the supply of and demand for carbon storage and sequestration of woody biomass in the socio-ecological environment of the Wabe River catchment in Gurage Mountains, Ethiopia, were estimated. This information was subsequently integrated into a map that showed the balance between supply capacities and demand in a spatially explicit manner to inform planners and decision makers on methods used to manage local climate change. Field data for wood biomass and soil were collected, satellite images for land use and land cover (LULC) were classified, and secondary data from statistics and studies for estimation were obtained. Carbon storage, the rate of carbon sequestration and the rate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from diverse sources at different LULCs, was estimated accordingly by several methods. Even though a large amount of carbon was stored in the catchment, the current yearly sequestration was less than the CO2-eq. GHG emissions. Forest and Enset-based agroforestry emissions exhibited the highest amount of woody biomass, and cereal crop and wetland exhibited the highest decrease in soil carbon sequestration. CO2-eq. GHG emissions are mainly caused by livestock, nitrogenous fertilizer consumption, and urban activities. The net negative emissions were estimated for the LULC classes of cereal crop, grazing land, and urban areas. In conclusion, without any high-emission industries, GHG emissions can be greater than the regulatory capacity of ecosystems in the socio-ecological environment. This quantification approach can provide information to policy and decision makers to enable them to tackle climate change at the root level. Thus, measures to decrease emission levels and enhance the sequestration capacity are crucial to mitigate the globally delivered service in a specific area. Further studies on the effects of land use alternatives on net emissions are recommended to obtain in-depth knowledge on sustainable land use planning.}, }
@article {pmid29254730, year = {2017}, author = {Kimaro, EG and Toribio, JLML and Mor, SM}, title = {Climate change and cattle vector-borne diseases: Use of participatory epidemiology to investigate experiences in pastoral communities in Northern Tanzania.}, journal = {Preventive veterinary medicine}, volume = {147}, number = {}, pages = {79-89}, doi = {10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.08.010}, pmid = {29254730}, issn = {1873-1716}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; Cattle ; Cattle Diseases/epidemiology/*psychology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Community Participation ; Disease Vectors ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Seasons ; Tanzania/epidemiology ; Theileriasis/epidemiology/*psychology ; Trypanosomiasis, African/epidemiology/*psychology/*veterinary ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to increase incidence of vector-borne diseases in humans, however, little is known about the impact of such diseases in livestock. In the absence of historical data with which to examine the inter-relation between climate and disease, participatory epidemiological (PE) methods were used with Maasai pastoralists of Monduli District, northern Tanzania to establish local observations on two major vector-borne diseases of cattle, namely East Coast fever (ECF) and African animal trypanosomiasis (AAT). Data collection involving gender segregated groups (10 men groups and 9 women groups) occurred in 10 randomly selected villages between November 2014 and March 2015. ECF and AAT were ranked amongst the top 5 most important cattle diseases with strong agreement across informant groups (Kendall's W=0.40 for men and 0.45 for women; p<0.01). Matrix scoring for both men and women groups confirmed that Masaai easily recognize these diseases. All groups associated ECF with the wet and cool dry seasons. AAT was more variable throughout the year, with more cases reported in the long dry season. Likewise, pastoralists reported differences in seasonal occurrence of disease vectors (Rhipicephalus appendiculatus and Glossina spp.) by village. Comparing 2014-1984, participant groups consistently reported declines in rainfall, vegetation cover and quality pasture, as well as increases in severe droughts. Experiences with ECF/AAT and vector abundance between these time periods was more variable across villages, and likely relates to changes in climate and animal management practices over the last 30 years. This baseline study is the first to document the inter-relation between climate and cattle vector-borne disease from the pastoralist perspective. Findings from this study reveal a complex interplay between human, animal and environmental factors, understanding of which is urgently required to devise approaches to mitigate effects of climate change in these vulnerable areas.}, }
@article {pmid29253831, year = {2018}, author = {McDonnell, TC and Reinds, GJ and Sullivan, TJ and Clark, CM and Bonten, LTC and Mol-Dijkstra, JP and Wamelink, GWW and Dovciak, M}, title = {Feasibility of coupled empirical and dynamic modeling to assess climate change and air pollution impacts on temperate forest vegetation of the eastern United States.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {234}, number = {}, pages = {902-914}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2017.12.002}, pmid = {29253831}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/analysis/metabolism ; Soil/chemistry ; Tennessee ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; United States ; Virginia ; }, abstract = {Changes in climate and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition caused pronounced changes in soil conditions and habitat suitability for many plant species over the latter half of the previous century. Such changes are expected to continue in the future with anticipated further changing air temperature and precipitation that will likely influence the effects of N deposition. To investigate the potential long-term impacts of atmospheric N deposition on hardwood forest ecosystems in the eastern United States in the context of climate change, application of the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community model VSD+PROPS was explored at three sites in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee. This represents the first application of VSD+PROPS to forest ecosystems in the United States. Climate change and elevated (above mid-19th century) N deposition were simulated to be important factors for determining habitat suitability. Although simulation results suggested that the suitability of these forests to support the continued presence of their characteristic understory plant species might decline by the year 2100, low data availability for building vegetation response models with PROPS resulted in uncertain results at the extremes of simulated N deposition. Future PROPS model development in the United States should focus on inclusion of additional foundational data or alternate candidate predictor variables to reduce these uncertainties.}, }
@article {pmid29253777, year = {2018}, author = {Bonfante, A and Monaco, E and Langella, G and Mercogliano, P and Bucchignani, E and Manna, P and Terribile, F}, title = {A dynamic viticultural zoning to explore the resilience of terroir concept under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {624}, number = {}, pages = {294-308}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.035}, pmid = {29253777}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change (CC) directly influences agricultural sectors, presenting the need to identify both adaptation and mitigation actions that can make local farming communities and crop production more resilient. In this context, the viticultural sector is one of those most challenged by CC due to the need to combine grape quality, grapevine cultivar adaptation and therefore farmers' future incomes. Thus, understanding how suitability for viticulture is changing under CC is of primary interest in the development of adaptation strategies in traditional wine-growing regions. Considering that climate is an essential part of the terroir system, the expected variability in climate change could have a marked influence on terroir resilience with important effects on local farming communities in viticultural regions. From this perspective, the aim of this paper is to define a new dynamic viticultural zoning procedure that is able to integrate the effects of CC on grape quality responses and evaluate terroir resilience, providing a support tool for stakeholders involved in viticultural planning (winegrowers, winegrower consortiums, policy makers etc.). To achieve these aims, a Hybrid Land Evaluation System, combining qualitative (standard Land Evaluation) and quantitative (simulation model) approaches, was applied within a traditional region devoted to high quality wine production in Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, BN), for a specific grapevine cultivar (Aglianico). The work employed high resolution climate projections that were derived under two different IPCC scenarios, namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results obtained indicate that: (i) only 2% of the suitable area of Valle Telesina expresses the concept of terroir resilience orientated towards Aglianico ultra quality grape production; (ii) within 2010-2040, it is expected that 41% of the area suitable for Aglianico cultivation will need irrigation to achieve quality grape production; (iii) by 2100, climate change benefits for the cultivation of Aglianico will decrease, as well as the suitable areas.}, }
@article {pmid29252985, year = {2017}, author = {Bombi, P and D'Andrea, E and Rezaie, N and Cammarano, M and Matteucci, G}, title = {Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {e0189468}, pmid = {29252985}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Area Under Curve ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Geography ; Interdisciplinary Communication ; *Models, Biological ; Pinus sylvestris/growth &amp; development ; Trees/*physiology ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated.}, }
@article {pmid29252921, year = {2018}, author = {Perkison, WB and Kearney, GD and Saberi, P and Guidotti, T and McCarthy, R and Cook-Shimanek, M and Pensa, MA and Nabeel, I and , }, title = {Responsibilities of the Occupational and Environmental Medicine Provider in the Treatment and Prevention of Climate Change-Related Health Problems.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {60}, number = {2}, pages = {e76-e81}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000001251}, pmid = {29252921}, issn = {1536-5948}, support = {T03 OH008607/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; T42 OH008421/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors ; Environmental Medicine/*standards ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Natural Disasters ; Occupational Diseases/diagnosis/etiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Occupational Exposure/adverse effects/*prevention &amp; control ; Occupational Health ; Occupational Medicine/*standards ; *Professional Role ; Stress, Psychological/chemically induced/prevention &amp; control ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; Waterborne Diseases/chemically induced/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {: Workers are uniquely susceptible to the health hazards imposed by environmental changes. Occupational and environmental medicine (OEM) providers are at the forefront of emerging health issues pertaining to working populations including climate change, and must be prepared to recognize, respond to, and mitigate climate change-related health effects in workers. This guidance document from the American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine focuses on North American workers health effects that may occur as a result of climate change and describes the responsibilities of the OEM provider in responding to these health challenges.}, }
@article {pmid29251797, year = {2018}, author = {Zhang, Y and Mathewson, PD and Zhang, Q and Porter, WP and Ran, J}, title = {An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {1804-1816}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14022}, pmid = {29251797}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Endangered Species ; *Forests ; Ursidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Threatened and endangered species are more vulnerable to climate change due to small population and specific geographical distribution. Therefore, identifying and incorporating the biological processes underlying a species' adaptation to its environment are important for determining whether they can persist in situ. Correlative models are widely used to predict species' distribution changes, but generally fail to capture the buffering capacity of organisms. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) live in topographically complex mountains and are known to avoid heat stress. Although many studies have found that climate change will lead to severe habitat loss and threaten previous conservation efforts, the mechanisms underlying panda's responses to climate change have not been explored. Here, we present a case study in Daxiangling Mountains, one of the six Mountain Systems that giant panda distributes. We used a mechanistic model, Niche Mapper, to explore what are likely panda habitat response to climate change taking physiological, behavioral and ecological responses into account, through which we map panda's climatic suitable activity area (SAA) for the first time. We combined SAA with bamboo forest distribution to yield highly suitable habitat (HSH) and seasonal suitable habitat (SSH), and their temporal dynamics under climate change were predicted. In general, SAA in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7%-52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6%-86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5%-68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070. Our method of mechanistic modeling can help to distinguish whether habitat loss is caused by thermal environmental deterioration or food loss under climate change. Furthermore, mechanistic models can produce robust predictions by incorporating ecophysiological feedbacks and minimizing extrapolation into novel environments. We suggest that a mechanistic approach should be incorporated into distribution predictions and conservation planning.}, }
@article {pmid29245185, year = {2018}, author = {Tao, F and Rötter, RP and Palosuo, T and Gregorio Hernández Díaz-Ambrona, C and Mínguez, MI and Semenov, MA and Kersebaum, KC and Nendel, C and Specka, X and Hoffmann, H and Ewert, F and Dambreville, A and Martre, P and Rodríguez, L and Ruiz-Ramos, M and Gaiser, T and Höhn, JG and Salo, T and Ferrise, R and Bindi, M and Cammarano, D and Schulman, AH}, title = {Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {1291-1307}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14019}, pmid = {29245185}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {BB/P016855/1//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Finland ; Forecasting ; Mediterranean Region ; *Models, Biological ; Spain ; Time Factors ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate change impact assessments are plagued with uncertainties from many sources, such as climate projections or the inadequacies in structure and parameters of the impact model. Previous studies tried to account for the uncertainty from one or two of these. Here, we developed a triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment using seven crop models, multiple sets of model parameters and eight contrasting climate projections together to comprehensively account for uncertainties from these three important sources. We demonstrated the approach in assessing climate change impact on barley growth and yield at Jokioinen, Finland in the Boreal climatic zone and Lleida, Spain in the Mediterranean climatic zone, for the 2050s. We further quantified and compared the contribution of crop model structure, crop model parameters and climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Based on the triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment, the median of simulated yield change was -4% and +16%, and the probability of decreasing yield was 63% and 31% in the 2050s, at Jokioinen and Lleida, respectively, relative to 1981-2010. The contribution of crop model structure to the total variance of ensemble output was larger than that from downscaled climate projections and model parameters. The relative contribution of crop model parameters and downscaled climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output varied greatly among the seven crop models and between the two sites. The contribution of downscaled climate projections was on average larger than that of crop model parameters. This information on the uncertainty from different sources can be quite useful for model users to decide where to put the most effort when preparing or choosing models or parameters for impact analyses. We concluded that the triple-ensemble probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties from multiple important sources provide more comprehensive information for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments as compared to the conventional approaches that are deterministic or only account for the uncertainties from one or two of the uncertainty sources.}, }
@article {pmid29242185, year = {2018}, author = {Giovannini, I and Altiero, T and Guidetti, R and Rebecchi, L}, title = {Will the Antarctic tardigrade Acutuncus antarcticus be able to withstand environmental stresses related to global climate change?.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {221}, number = {Pt 4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.160622}, pmid = {29242185}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Desiccation ; Hot Temperature ; Longevity ; *Stress, Physiological ; Tardigrada/*physiology ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Because conditions in continental Antarctica are highly selective and extremely hostile to life, its biota is depauperate, but well adapted to live in this region. Global climate change has the potential to impact continental Antarctic organisms because of increasing temperatures and ultraviolet radiation. This research evaluates how ongoing climate changes will affect Antarctic species, and whether Antarctic organisms will be able to adapt to the new environmental conditions. Tardigrades represent one of the main terrestrial components of Antarctic meiofauna; therefore, the pan-Antarctic tardigrade Acutuncus antarcticus was used as model to predict the fate of Antarctic meiofauna threatened by climate change. Acutuncus antarcticus individuals tolerate events of desiccation, increased temperature and UV radiation. Both hydrated and desiccated animals tolerate increases in UV radiation, even though the desiccated animals are more resistant. Nevertheless, the survivorship of hydrated and desiccated animals is negatively affected by the combination of temperature and UV radiation, with the hydrated animals being more tolerant than desiccated animals. Finally, UV radiation has a negative impact on the life history traits of successive generations of A. antarcticus, causing an increase in egg reabsorption and teratological events. In the long run, A. antarcticus could be at risk of population reductions or even extinction. Nevertheless, because the changes in global climate will proceed gradually and an overlapping of temperature and UV increase could be limited in time, A. antarcticus, as well as many other Antarctic organisms, could have the potential to overcome global warming stresses, and/or the time and capability to adapt to the new environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid29238531, year = {2017}, author = {Basset, Y and Lamarre, GPA and Ratz, T and Segar, ST and Decaëns, T and Rougerie, R and Miller, SE and Perez, F and Bobadilla, R and Lopez, Y and Ramirez, JA and Aiello, A and Barrios, H}, title = {The Saturniidae of Barro Colorado Island, Panama: A model taxon for studying the long-term effects of climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {23}, pages = {9991-10004}, pmid = {29238531}, issn = {2045-7758}, support = {669609/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {We have little knowledge of the response of invertebrate assemblages to climate change in tropical ecosystems, and few studies have compiled long-term data on invertebrates from tropical rainforests. We provide an updated list of the 72 species of Saturniidae moths collected on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, during the period 1958-2016. This list will serve as baseline data for assessing long-term changes of saturniids on BCI in the future, as 81% of the species can be identified by their unique DNA Barcode Index Number, including four cryptic species not yet formally described. A local species pool of 60 + species breeding on BCI appears plausible, but more cryptic species may be discovered in the future. We use monitoring data obtained by light trapping to analyze recent population trends on BCI for saturniid species that were relatively common during 2009-2016, a period representing >30 saturniid generations. The abundances of 11 species, of 14 tested, could be fitted to significant time-series models. While the direction of change in abundance was uncertain for most species, two species showed a significant increase over time, and forecast models also suggested continuing increases for most species during 2017-2018, as compared to the 2009 base year. Peaks in saturniid abundance were most conspicuous during El Niño and La Niña years. In addition to a species-specific approach, we propose a reproducible functional classification based on five functional traits to analyze the responses of species sharing similar functional attributes in a fluctuating climate. Our results suggest that the abundances of larger body-size species with good dispersal abilities may increase concomitantly with rising air temperature in the future, because short-lived adults may allocate less time to increasing body temperature for flight, leaving more time available for searching for mating partners or suitable oviposition sites.}, }
@article {pmid29238520, year = {2017}, author = {Takano, KT and Hibino, K and Numata, A and Oguro, M and Aiba, M and Shiogama, H and Takayabu, I and Nakashizuka, T}, title = {Detecting latitudinal and altitudinal expansion of invasive bamboo Phyllostachys edulis and Phyllostachys bambusoides (Poaceae) in Japan to project potential habitats under 1.5°C-4.0°C global warming.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {23}, pages = {9848-9859}, pmid = {29238520}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Rapid expansion of exotic bamboos has lowered species diversity in Japan's ecosystems by hampering native plant growth. The invasive potential of bamboo, facilitated by global warming, may also affect other countries with developing bamboo industries. We examined past (1975-1980) and recent (2012) distributions of major exotic bamboos (Phyllostachys edulis and P. bambusoides) in areas adjacent to 145 weather stations in central and northern Japan. Bamboo stands have been established at 17 sites along the latitudinal and altitudinal distributional limit during the last three decades. Ecological niche modeling indicated that temperature had a strong influence on bamboo distribution. Using mean annual temperature and sun radiation data, we reproduced bamboo distribution (accuracy = 0.93 and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) = 0.92). These results infer that exotic bamboo distribution has shifted northward and upslope, in association with recent climate warming. Then, we simulated future climate data and projected the climate change impact on the potential habitat distribution of invasive bamboos under different temperature increases (i.e., 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C) relative to the preindustrial period. Potential habitats in central and northern Japan were estimated to increase from 35% under the current climate (1980-2000) to 46%-48%, 51%-54%, 61%-67%, and 77%-83% under 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C warming levels, respectively. These infer that the risk areas can increase by 1.3 times even under a 1.5°C scenario and expand by 2.3 times under a 4.0°C scenario. For sustainable ecosystem management, both mitigation and adaptation are necessary: bamboo planting must be carefully monitored in predicted potential habitats, which covers most of Japan.}, }
@article {pmid29235029, year = {2018}, author = {Bharali, A and Baruah, KK and Baruah, SG and Bhattacharyya, P}, title = {Impacts of integrated nutrient management on methane emission, global warming potential and carbon storage capacity in rice grown in a northeast India soil.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {5889-5901}, pmid = {29235029}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {DST/IS-STAC/CO2-SR-105/11(G)//Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, New Delhi/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Fertilizers ; Food ; *Global Warming ; India ; Manure ; Methane/*metabolism ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Oryza/*metabolism ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Rice soil is a source of emission of two major greenhouse gases (methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)) and a sink of carbon dioxide (CO2). The effect of inorganic fertilizers in combination with various organics (cow dung, green manure (Sesbania aculeata) Azolla compost, rice husk) on CH4 emission, global warming potential, and soil carbon storage along with crop productivity were studied at university farm under field conditions. The experiment was conducted in a randomized block design for 2 years in a monsoon rice (cv. Ranjit) ecosystem (June-November, 2014 and 2015). Combined application of inorganic (NPK) with Sesbania aculeata resulted in high global warming potential (GWP) of 887.4 kg CO2 ha[-1] and low GWP of 540.6 kg CO2 ha[-1] was recorded from inorganic fertilizer applied field. Irrespective of the type of organic amendments, flag leaf photosynthesis of the rice crop increased over NPK application (control). There was an increase in CH4 emission from the organic amended fields compared to NPK alone. The combined application of NPK and Azolla compost was effective in the buildup of soil carbon (16.93 g kg[-1]) and capacity of soil carbon storage (28.1 Mg C ha[-1]) with high carbon efficiency ratio (16.9). Azolla compost application along with NPK recorded 15.66% higher CH4 emission with 27.43% yield increment over control. Azolla compost application significantly enhanced carbon storage of soil and improved the yielding ability of grain (6.55 Mg ha[-1]) over other treatments.}, }
@article {pmid29233795, year = {2017}, author = {Stephen, DM and Barnett, AG}, title = {Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {125}, number = {12}, pages = {127001}, pmid = {29233795}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Arthritis, Reactive/economics/epidemiology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Health Services/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Irritable Bowel Syndrome/economics/epidemiology ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Econometric ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Queensland/epidemiology ; Salmonella Infections/*economics/*epidemiology ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies.<br><br>METHODS: We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay.<br><br>RESULTS: Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000&#x2009;million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.}, }
@article {pmid29233463, year = {2018}, author = {Schwartz, SA}, title = {Climate Change, Well-being, and Carbon.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {15-18}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2017.10.004}, pmid = {29233463}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; Delivery of Health Care/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Politics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid29232695, year = {2017}, author = {Scheuer, S and Haase, D and Volk, M}, title = {Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {e0189451}, pmid = {29232695}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Rain ; Research ; Temperature ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid29230936, year = {2018}, author = {Stevens-Rumann, CS and Kemp, KB and Higuera, PE and Harvey, BJ and Rother, MT and Donato, DC and Morgan, P and Veblen, TT}, title = {Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {243-252}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12889}, pmid = {29230936}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Fires ; *Forests ; Trees ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Forest resilience to climate change is a global concern given the potential effects of increased disturbance activity, warming temperatures and increased moisture stress on plants. We used a multi-regional dataset of 1485 sites across 52 wildfires from the US Rocky Mountains to ask if and how changing climate over the last several decades impacted post-fire tree regeneration, a key indicator of forest resilience. Results highlight significant decreases in tree regeneration in the 21st century. Annual moisture deficits were significantly greater from 2000 to 2015 as compared to 1985-1999, suggesting increasingly unfavourable post-fire growing conditions, corresponding to significantly lower seedling densities and increased regeneration failure. Dry forests that already occur at the edge of their climatic tolerance are most prone to conversion to non-forests after wildfires. Major climate-induced reduction in forest density and extent has important consequences for a myriad of ecosystem services now and in the future.}, }
@article {pmid29230904, year = {2018}, author = {van Oort, PAJ and Zwart, SJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {1029-1045}, pmid = {29230904}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Africa ; *Climate Change ; Food Supply ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Photosynthesis ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (-24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by -21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by -45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (-15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates.}, }
@article {pmid29230070, year = {2018}, author = {Duong, TM and Ranasinghe, R and Thatcher, M and Mahanama, S and Wang, ZB and Dissanayake, PK and Hemer, M and Luijendijk, A and Bamunawala, J and Roelvink, D and Walstra, D}, title = {ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE STABILITY OF SMALL TIDAL INLETS: Part 2- DATA RICH ENVIRONMENTS.}, journal = {Marine geology}, volume = {395}, number = {}, pages = {65-81}, pmid = {29230070}, issn = {0025-3227}, support = {//Goddard Space Flight Center NASA/United States ; N-999999//Intramural NASA/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) is likely to affect the thousands of bar-built or barrier estuaries (here referred to as Small tidal inlets - STIs) around the world. Any such CC impacts on the stability of STIs, which governs the dynamics of STIs as well as that of the inlet-adjacent coastline, can result in significant socio-economic consequences due to the heavy human utilisation of these systems and their surrounds. This article demonstrates the application of a process based snap-shot modelling approach, using the coastal morphodynamic model Delft3D, to 3 case study sites representing the 3 main STI types; Permanently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 1), Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlets (Type 2) and Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 3). The 3 case study sites (Negombo lagoon - Type 1, Kalutara lagoon - Type 2, and Maha Oya river - Type 3) are all located along the southwest coast of Sri Lanka. After successful hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model validation at the 3 case study sites, CC impact assessment are undertaken for a high end greenhouse gas emission scenario. Future CC modified wave and riverflow conditions are derived from a regional scale application of spectral wave models (WaveWatch III and SWAN) and catchment scale applications of a hydrologic model (CLSM) respectively, both of which are forced with IPCC Global Climate Model output dynamically downscaled to ~ 50 km resolution over the study area with the stretched grid Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model CCAM. Results show that while all 3 case study STIs will experience significant CC driven variations in their level of stability, none of them will change Type by the year 2100. Specifically, the level of stability of the Type 1 inlet will decrease from 'Good' to 'Fair to poor' by 2100, while the level of (locational) stability of the Type 2 inlet will also decrease with a doubling of the annual migration distance. Conversely, the stability of the Type 3 inlet will increase, with the time till inlet closure increasing by ~75%. The main contributor to the overall CC effect on the stability of all 3 STIs is CC driven variations in wave conditions and resulting changes in longshore sediment transport, not Sea level rise as commonly believed.}, }
@article {pmid29230026, year = {2018}, author = {Monchamp, ME and Spaak, P and Domaizon, I and Dubois, N and Bouffard, D and Pomati, F}, title = {Homogenization of lake cyanobacterial communities over a century of climate change and eutrophication.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {317-324}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-017-0407-0}, pmid = {29230026}, issn = {2397-334X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/classification/*physiology ; *Eutrophication ; France ; Italy ; Lakes/*microbiology ; *Microbiota ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Switzerland ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Human impacts on biodiversity are well recognized, but uncertainties remain regarding patterns of diversity change at different spatial and temporal scales. Changes in microbial assemblages are, in particular, not well understood, partly due to the lack of community composition data over relevant scales of space and time. Here, we investigate biodiversity patterns in cyanobacterial assemblages over one century of eutrophication and climate change by sequencing DNA preserved in the sediments of ten European peri-Alpine lakes. We found species losses and gains at the lake scale, while species richness increased at the regional scale over approximately the past 100 years. Our data show a clear signal for beta diversity loss, with the composition and phylogenetic structure of assemblages becoming more similar across sites in the most recent decades, as have the general environmental conditions in and around the lakes. We attribute patterns of change in community composition to raised temperatures affecting the strength of the thermal stratification and, as a consequence, nutrient fluctuations, which favoured cyanobacterial taxa able to regulate buoyancy. Our results reinforce previous reports of human-induced homogenization of natural communities and reveal how potentially toxic and bloom-forming cyanobacteria have widened their geographic distribution in the European temperate region.}, }
@article {pmid29229233, year = {2018}, author = {Tjaden, NB and Caminade, C and Beierkuhnlein, C and Thomas, SM}, title = {Mosquito-Borne Diseases: Advances in Modelling Climate-Change Impacts.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {227-245}, doi = {10.1016/j.pt.2017.11.006}, pmid = {29229233}, issn = {1471-5007}, support = {MR/M0501633/1//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; Mosquito Vectors/*physiology/virology ; Risk Assessment/*trends ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases are on the rise globally. As the consequences of climate change are becoming evident, climate-based models of disease risk are of growing importance. Here, we review the current state-of-the-art in both mechanistic and correlative disease modelling, the data driving these models, the vectors and diseases covered, and climate models applied to assess future risk. We find that modelling techniques have advanced considerably, especially in terms of using ensembles of climate models and scenarios. Effects of extreme events, precipitation regimes, and seasonality on diseases are still poorly studied. Thorough validation of models is still a challenge and is complicated by a lack of field and laboratory data. On a larger scale, the main challenges today lie in cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral transfer of data and methods.}, }
@article {pmid29228976, year = {2017}, author = {Ramirez, B and , }, title = {Support for research towards understanding the population health vulnerabilities to vector-borne diseases: increasing resilience under climate change conditions in Africa.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {164}, pmid = {29228976}, issn = {2049-9957}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; TDR/IDRC 106905-001//International Development Research Centre/ ; }, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Animals ; Biomedical Research ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/*transmission ; Disease Vectors ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Population Health ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Diseases transmitted to humans by vectors account for 17% of all infectious diseases and remain significant public health problems. Through the years, great strides have been taken towards combatting vector-borne diseases (VBDs), most notably through large scale and coordinated control programmes, which have contributed to the decline of the global mortality attributed to VBDs. However, with environmental changes, including climate change, the impact on VBDs is anticipated to be significant, in terms of VBD-related hazards, vulnerabilities and exposure. While there is growing awareness on the vulnerability of the African continent to VBDs in the context of climate change, there is still a paucity of research being undertaken in this area, and impeding the formulation of evidence-based health policy change.<br><br>MAIN BODY: One way in which the gap in knowledge and evidence can be filled is for donor institutions to support research in this area. The collaboration between the WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) and the International Centre for Research and Development (IDRC) builds on more than 10&#xa0;years of partnership in research capacity-building in the field of tropical diseases. From this partnership was born yet another research initiative on VBDs and the impact of climate change in the Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa. This paper lists the projects supported under this research initiative and provides a brief on some of the policy and good practice recommendations emerging from the ongoing implementation of the research projects.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Data generated from the research initiative are expected to be uptaken by stakeholders (including communities, policy makers, public health practitioners and other relevant partners) to contribute to a better understanding of the impacts of social, environmental and climate change on VBDs(i.e. the nature of the hazard, vulnerabilities, exposure), and improve the ability of African countries to adapt to and reduce the effects of these changes in ways that benefit their most vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid29227189, year = {2018}, author = {Fei, Q and Li, J and Luo, Y and Ma, K and Niu, B and Mu, C and Gao, H and Li, X}, title = {Plant molecular responses to the elevated ambient temperatures expected under global climate change.}, journal = {Plant signaling &amp; behavior}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {e1414123}, pmid = {29227189}, issn = {1559-2324}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Flowers/physiology ; Hypocotyl/growth &amp; development ; Plants/*genetics ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Environmental temperatures affect plant distribution, growth, and development. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global temperatures will rise by at least 1.5°C by the end of this century. Global temperature changes have already had a discernable impact on agriculture, phenology, and ecosystems. At the molecular level, extensive literature exists on the mechanism controlling plant responses to high temperature stress. However, few studies have focused on the molecular mechanisms behind plant responses to mild increases in ambient temperature. Previous research has found that moderately higher ambient temperatures can induce hypocotyl elongation and early flowering. Recent evidence demonstrates roles for the phytohormones auxin and ethylene in adaptive growth of plant roots to slightly higher ambient temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid29223080, year = {2018}, author = {Lencioni, V}, title = {Glacial influence and stream macroinvertebrate biodiversity under climate change: Lessons from the Southern Alps.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {622-623}, number = {}, pages = {563-575}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.266}, pmid = {29223080}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Ice Cover ; *Invertebrates ; Italy ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {The aim of this work was to highlight the main ecological predictors driving invertebrate distribution in eight glacier-fed streams in the Southern Alps. Thirty-five sites belonging to four stream types were sampled monthly during the ablation season of one, two or three years between 1996 and 2014. Taxa from glacial (kryal and glacio-rhithral) and non-glacial (kreno-rhithral and lake outlet) sites were separated by canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) along a glacial influence gradient and a hydrological-altitudinal gradient. High glacial influence was associated mainly with low maximum water temperature (Tmax), high Glacial Index (calculated as a function of glacier area and distance from the glacier), and the abundance of Diamesa species (D. steinboecki, D. goetghebueri, D. zernyi, and D. latitarsis). Change-point analysis and Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis confirmed the CCA results in identifying these Diamesa species as the taxa with the strongest preference for high percent glacier cover in the catchment (change point~30%) and low Tmax (change point~6°C). Temporal changes in community structure were highlighted in seven sites fed by glaciers under different retreat rates. Where the rate was faster and the remaining glacier smaller (≪1km[2]), the most cold-stenothermal kryal inhabitant, D. steinboecki, almost disappeared or survived only as brachypterous populations, whereas other Diamesinae (Pseudokiefferiella parva), Orthocladiinae (e.g. Eukiefferiella, Orthocladius), Limoniidae, Baetidae, Nemouridae, and non-insect taxa (e.g. Oligochaeta, Hydracarina) became more abundant. Upstream migration was observed in Diamesa spp. which conquered new stream reaches left free by the retreating glacier, and euriecious taxa which colonized reaches with ameliorated environmental conditions, no longer the exclusive habitat of Diamesa spp. Co-occurrence of stochastic and deterministic assembly processes seem to drive spatio-temporal changes in these invertebrate communities. Long-term ecological studies on the adaptive biology of kryal species will be useful to predict the fate of Alpine biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid29220773, year = {2018}, author = {Li, C and Lu, Y and Liu, J and Wu, X}, title = {Climate change and dengue fever transmission in China: Evidences and challenges.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {622-623}, number = {}, pages = {493-501}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.326}, pmid = {29220773}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Aedes/virology ; Animals ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/epidemiology/*transmission ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Dengue Fever (DF) has become one of the most serious infectious diseases in China. Dengue virus and its vector (Aedes mosquito) are known to be sensitive to climate condition. Climate impacts DF through affecting three essential bioecological aspects: DF virus, vector (mosquito) and DF transmission environment. Weather-based DF model, mosquito model and climate model are the three pillars to help the prediction of DF distribution. Through a systematic review of literature between 1980 and 2017, this paper summarizes empirical evidences in China on the impact of climate change on DF; it further reviews the related DF incidence models and their findings on how changes in weather factors may impact DF occurrences in China. Compared with some well-known research projects in the western countries, there is a lack of knowledge in China regarding how the spatiotemporal distribution of DF will respond to climate change. However, being able to predict DF distribution is key to China's efforts to prevent and control DF transmission. We conclude this paper by recommending four focused areas for China: promoting more advanced research on the relationship between extreme weather events and DF, developing regional-specific models for the high risk regions of DF in south China, encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration between climate studies and health services, and enhancing public health education and management at national, regional and local levels.}, }
@article {pmid29220761, year = {2018}, author = {Cervi, F and Petronici, F and Castellarin, A and Marcaccio, M and Bertolini, A and Borgatti, L}, title = {Climate-change potential effects on the hydrological regime of freshwater springs in the Italian Northern Apennines.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {622-623}, number = {}, pages = {337-348}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.231}, pmid = {29220761}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In large areas of the Italian Northern Apennines, hundreds of low-yield springs provide water for drinking and industrial purposes, with short groundwater flow paths being formed within fractured sedimentary rock units. This hydrogeological setting results in spring water discharges that closely follow meteoric water recharge patterns, leading to low-flow periods concentrated in the summer/early autumn. Therefore, the springs' outflow can be very sensitive to a shortage in water recharge, as it was the case in 2003 and 2017, when a prolonged period of drought caused severe water management issues. This work analyses how a group of such springs responds to climate change. In particular, we first validated a hydrological rainfall-runoff model on the basis of daily discharge data collected between 2013 and 2016. Then, outflows were simulated for baseline (1984-2013) and future periods (2021-2050) using weather data provided by five RCM-GCM combinations. Finally, we performed statistical analyses aiming to examine the intra-annual variability in discharge rates, low-flow indices, flow-duration curves and the length of low-flows. Results show no evidence of change in mean annual discharges, but future climate estimates suggest a slight change to seasonal discharges in the future, with a marked increase of discharge during winter and spring, and a decrease in summer and autumn. Q(95) and 7Q10 low-flow indices (i.e. the daily discharge exceeded 95% of the time and the minimum weekly discharge associated with a 10-year recurrence interval, respectively) are significantly affected by the climate change (-21.8% and -25.0%, respectively), while droughts are expected to be more frequent: the number of years with a consecutive low-flow between 51 and 100days to increase by a third, and between 101 and 150 to duplicate.}, }
@article {pmid29219964, year = {2017}, author = {Brown, PT and Caldeira, K}, title = {Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {552}, number = {7683}, pages = {45-50}, pmid = {29219964}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Earth, Planet ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Human Activities ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Temperature ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.}, }
@article {pmid29219105, year = {2017}, author = {Curtis, S and Fair, A and Wistow, J and Val, DV and Oven, K}, title = {Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {16}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {128}, pmid = {29219105}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Public Health/*trends ; Social Welfare/*trends ; United Kingdom ; Weather ; }, abstract = {This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.}, }
@article {pmid29219103, year = {2017}, author = {Doherty, RM and Heal, MR and O'Connor, FM}, title = {Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {16}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {118}, pmid = {29219103}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Humans ; Ozone/*adverse effects ; Particulate Matter/*adverse effects ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH4) abundances lead to increases in background O3 that offset the O3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O3 - termed the O3 climate penalty - especially in southern Europe. The O3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O3 distribution, such as daily maximum O3. Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100.A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O3 and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during the 2003 heatwave over Europe has been examined in numerous studies and mechanisms for enhancing O3 have been identified.There are few studies on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on air quality, but these report higher O3-related health burdens in polluted populated regions and greater PM2.5 health burdens in these emission regions. Studies that examine the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions change under the RCP scenarios report reductions in global and European premature O3-respiratory related and PM mortalities arising from the large decreases in precursor emissions. Under RCP 8.5 the large increase in CH4 leads to global and European excess O3-respiratory related mortalities in 2100. For future health effects, besides uncertainty in future O3 and particularly PM concentrations, there is also uncertainty in risk estimates such as effect modification by temperature on pollutant-response relationships and potential future adaptation that would alter exposure risk.}, }
@article {pmid29219100, year = {2017}, author = {Lake, IR}, title = {Food-borne disease and climate change in the United Kingdom.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {16}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {117}, pmid = {29219100}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {Campylobacter/physiology ; Campylobacter Infections/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Climate Change ; Foodborne Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Public Health ; Salmonella/physiology ; Salmonella Infections/*epidemiology/transmission ; Uncertainty ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {This review examined the likely impact of climate change upon food-borne disease in the UK using Campylobacter and Salmonella as example organisms. Campylobacter is an important food-borne disease and an increasing public health threat. There is a reasonable evidence base that the environment and weather play a role in its transmission to humans. However, uncertainty as to the precise mechanisms through which weather affects disease, make it difficult to assess the likely impact of climate change. There are strong positive associations between Salmonella cases and ambient temperature, and a clear understanding of the mechanisms behind this. However, because the incidence of Salmonella disease is declining in the UK, any climate change increases are likely to be small. For both Salmonella and Campylobacter the disease incidence is greatest in older adults and young children. There are many pathways through which climate change may affect food but only a few of these have been rigorously examined. This provides a high degree of uncertainty as to what the impacts of climate change will be. Food is highly controlled at the National and EU level. This provides the UK with resilience to climate change as well as potential to adapt to its consequences but it is unknown whether these are sufficient in the context of a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid29219099, year = {2017}, author = {Morris, GP and Reis, S and Beck, SA and Fleming, LE and Adger, WN and Benton, TG and Depledge, MH}, title = {Scoping the proximal and distal dimensions of climate change on health and wellbeing.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {16}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {116}, pmid = {29219099}, issn = {1476-069X}, support = {MR/K019341/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate on health and wellbeing occur in time and space and through a range of indirect, complicated mechanisms. This diversity of pathways has major implications for national public health planning and influence on interventions that might help to mitigate and adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions, nationally and internationally. This paper draws upon evidence from public health and adverse impact studies across climate science, hydrology, agriculture, public health, and the social sciences. It presents a conceptual model to support decision-making by recognizing both the proximal and distal pathways from climate-induced environmental change to national health and wellbeing. The proximal and distal pathways associated with food security, migration and mobility illustrate the diverse climate change influences in different geographic locations over different timescales. We argue that greater realization and articulation of proximal and distal pathways should radically alter how climate change is addressed as a national and international public health challenge.}, }
@article {pmid29219091, year = {2017}, author = {Baylis, M}, title = {Potential impact of climate change on emerging vector-borne and other infections in the UK.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {16}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {112}, pmid = {29219091}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropod Vectors/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; Humans ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate is one of several causes of disease emergence. Although half or more of infectious diseases are affected by climate it appears to be a relatively infrequent cause of human disease emergence. Climate mostly affects diseases caused by pathogens that spend part of their lifecycle outside of the host, exposed to the environment. The most important routes of transmission of climate sensitive diseases are by arthropod (insect and tick) vectors, in water and in food. Given the sensitivity of many diseases to climate, it is very likely that at least some will respond to future climate change. In the case of vector-borne diseases this response will include spread to new areas. Several vector-borne diseases have emerged in Europe in recent years; these include vivax malaria, West Nile fever, dengue fever, Chikungunya fever, leishmaniasis, Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. The vectors of these diseases are mosquitoes, sand flies and ticks. The UK has endemic mosquito species capable of transmitting malaria and probably other pathogens, and ticks that transmit Lyme disease. The UK is also threatened by invasive mosquito species known to be able to transmit West Nile, dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and sand flies that spread leishmaniasis. Warmer temperatures in the future will increase the suitability of the UK's climate for these invasive species, and increase the risk that they may spread disease. While much attention is on invasive species, it is important to recognize the threat presented by native species too. Proposed actions to reduce the future impact of emerging vector-borne diseases in the UK include insect control activity at points of entry of vehicles and certain goods, wider surveillance for mosquitoes and sand flies, research into the threat posed by native species, increased awareness of the medical profession of the threat posed by specific diseases, regular risk assessments, and increased preparedness for the occurrence of a disease emergency.}, }
@article {pmid29219089, year = {2017}, author = {Paavola, J}, title = {Health impacts of climate change and health and social inequalities in the UK.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {16}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {113}, pmid = {29219089}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Social Justice ; *Socioeconomic Factors ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {This article examines how social and health inequalities shape the health impacts of climate change in the UK, and what the implications are for climate change adaptation and health care provision. The evidence generated by the other articles of the special issue were interpreted using social justice reasoning in light of additional literature, to draw out the key implications of health and social inequalities for health outcomes of climate change. Exposure to heat and cold, air pollution, pollen, food safety risks, disruptions to access to and functioning of health services and facilities, emerging infections and flooding are examined as the key impacts of climate change influencing health outcomes. Age, pre-existing medical conditions and social deprivation are found to be the key (but not only) factors that make people vulnerable and to experience more adverse health outcomes related to climate change impacts. In the future, climate change, aging population and decreasing public spending on health and social care may aggravate inequality of health outcomes related to climate change. Health education and public preparedness measures that take into account differential exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of different groups help address health and social inequalities to do with climate change. Adaptation strategies based on individual preparedness, action and behaviour change may aggravate health and social inequalities due to their selective uptake, unless they are coupled with broad public information campaigns and financial support for undertaking adaptive measures.}, }
@article {pmid29218580, year = {2018}, author = {Bourgeade, P and Bourioug, M and Macor, S and Alaoui-Sossé, L and Alaoui-Sossé, B and Aleya, L}, title = {Potential vulnerability of oak forests to climate change-induced flooding: effects of mild oxygen deficiency on Quercus robur and Quercus petraea seedling physiology.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {5550-5557}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-017-0893-2}, pmid = {29218580}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Floods ; *Forests ; Oxygen/*metabolism ; Quercus/*metabolism ; Seedlings/metabolism/*physiology ; Soil ; Water/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Flooding is characterized by saturation of soil pores with water, leading to hypoxic conditions which affect plant root development and metabolism. We investigated the oxygen deficiency tolerance observed in Quercus robur and Quercus petraea and seek to understand whether it can be explained by enhanced efficiency in oxygen use in the roots, as estimated through radial oxygen loss visualization in relation to growth measurements and root apex respiration. The study showed that root growth, under oxygen deficiency conditions, was significantly reduced only in Q. robur seedlings. Root respiration was maintained in Q. robur, whereas it was decreased in Q. petraea. Both species set up a barrier against radial oxygen loss, though measurement of apex oxygen leakage showed greater oxygen efficiency in Q. robur seedlings. This strategy might allow Q. robur to maintain its respiration and thus to survive longer under oxygen deficiency conditions by facilitating the seedling establishment in transient flooded soils.}, }
@article {pmid29218512, year = {2017}, author = {Munzi, S and Ochoa-Hueso, R and Gerosa, G and Marzuoli, R}, title = {(E)merging directions on air pollution and climate change research in Mediterranean Basin ecosystems.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {24}, number = {34}, pages = {26155-26159}, pmid = {29218512}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid29217424, year = {2018}, author = {Islam, MMM and Iqbal, MS and Leemans, R and Hofstra, N}, title = {Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.}, journal = {International journal of hygiene and environmental health}, volume = {221}, number = {2}, pages = {283-292}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijheh.2017.11.006}, pmid = {29217424}, issn = {1618-131X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Hydrodynamics ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/*microbiology ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks.}, }
@article {pmid29213176, year = {2017}, author = {Barrett, T and Feola, G and Khusnitdinova, M and Krylova, V}, title = {Adapting Agricultural Water Use to Climate Change in a Post-Soviet Context: Challenges and Opportunities in Southeast Kazakhstan.}, journal = {Human ecology: an interdisciplinary journal}, volume = {45}, number = {6}, pages = {747-762}, pmid = {29213176}, issn = {0300-7839}, abstract = {The convergence of climate change and post-Soviet socio-economic and institutional transformations has been underexplored so far, as have the consequences of such convergence on crop agriculture in Central Asia. This paper provides a place-based analysis of constraints and opportunities for adaptation to climate change, with a specific focus on water use, in two districts in southeast Kazakhstan. Data were collected by 2 multi-stakeholder participatory workshops, 21 semi-structured in-depth interviews, and secondary statistical data. The present-day agricultural system is characterised by enduring Soviet-era management structures, but without state inputs that previously sustained agricultural productivity. Low margins of profitability on many privatised farms mean that attempts to implement integrated water management have produced water users associations unable to maintain and upgrade a deteriorating irrigation infrastructure. Although actors engage in tactical adaptation measures, necessary structural adaptation of the irrigation system remains difficult without significant public or private investments. Market-based water management models have been translated ambiguously to this region, which fails to encourage efficient water use and hinders adaptation to water stress. In addition, a mutual interdependence of informal networks and formal institutions characterises both state governance and everyday life in Kazakhstan. Such interdependence simultaneously facilitates operational and tactical adaptation, but hinders structural adaptation, as informal networks exist as a parallel system that achieves substantive outcomes while perpetuating the inertia and incapacity of the state bureaucracy. This article has relevance for critical understanding of integrated water management in practice and adaptation to climate change in post-Soviet institutional settings more broadly.}, }
@article {pmid29213103, year = {2017}, author = {Muths, E and Chambert, T and Schmidt, BR and Miller, DAW and Hossack, BR and Joly, P and Grolet, O and Green, DM and Pilliod, DS and Cheylan, M and Fisher, RN and McCaffery, RM and Adams, MJ and Palen, WJ and Arntzen, JW and Garwood, J and Fellers, G and Thirion, JM and Besnard, A and Grant, EHC}, title = {Heterogeneous responses of temperate-zone amphibian populations to climate change complicates conservation planning.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {17102}, pmid = {29213103}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Amphibians/*physiology ; Animals ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Europe ; North America ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Urodela/physiology ; }, abstract = {The pervasive and unabated nature of global amphibian declines suggests common demographic responses to a given driver, and quantification of major drivers and responses could inform broad-scale conservation actions. We explored the influence of climate on demographic parameters (i.e., changes in the probabilities of survival and recruitment) using 31 datasets from temperate zone amphibian populations (North America and Europe) with more than a decade of observations each. There was evidence for an influence of climate on population demographic rates, but the direction and magnitude of responses to climate drivers was highly variable among taxa and among populations within taxa. These results reveal that climate drivers interact with variation in life-history traits and population-specific attributes resulting in a diversity of responses. This heterogeneity complicates the identification of conservation 'rules of thumb' for these taxa, and supports the notion of local focus as the most effective approach to overcome global-scale conservation challenges.}, }
@article {pmid29955339, year = {2017}, author = {Tabbo, AM and Amadou, Z}, title = {Assessing newly introduced climate change adaptation strategy packages among rural households: Evidence from Kaou local government area, Tahoua State, Niger Republic.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {383}, pmid = {29955339}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This research discusses new strategies developed and introduced by national and international partners to help farmers in building adaptative capacity against the negative externalities of climate change. The purpose of this study is to determine and to assess the most important adaptation strategies introduced by development partners. Based on the recognition interview with farmers and synthesis of previous research, 13 strategies were compiled and included in the study. Thus, an advance in the balanced incomplete block design was used to design the questionnaire served as data collection tools. For each question, respondents were asked to choose their best and their worst strategies. Thus, the difference between the best and worst strategies consistent with random utility theory was used for the modelling. Results show that herd rebuilding, human capacity building, introduction of fishing, water and soil conservation activities, introduction of leafy vegetable such as Moringa oleifera, financial credit, forage seed marketing and introduction of agriculture inputs were the most important strategies, while the support to vegetable production, income-generating activities, the use of agricultural improved seed varieties, anti-fire band making and cereal bank introduction were the least important adaptation strategies for farmers. These results are therefore essential for the dissemination of adaptation strategies, thereby stimulating and maintaining sustainability development actions in the study area.}, }
@article {pmid29955331, year = {2017}, author = {Mupakati, T and Tanyanyiwa, VI}, title = {Cassava production as a climate change adaptation strategy in Chilonga Ward, Chiredzi District, Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {348}, pmid = {29955331}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This study sought to pilot a range of long-term adaptation measures in the agriculture sector because of climate change shocks. Past droughts in Zimbabwe have had devastating environmental and socio-economic impacts in rural areas where livelihoods mainly depend on agriculture. Over the past few years, many parts of Zimbabwe have been experiencing extreme events. The study sought to address the following objectives to describe smallholder farmers' knowledge of climate change variability and change in Chilonga Ward and to explore the potential of cassava production as a climate change adaptation strategy in Chiredzi. An assessment of the impact of cassava production on rural livelihoods as a climate change adaptation strategy was also done. Focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, desk research and observation were the tools used to collect data. The results show that cassava has an extensive root system that can penetrate poor soils which may not support crops like maize. Zimbabwe has to increase cassava production as its tubers can be value added to produce a range of products that include livestock feed and porridge.}, }
@article {pmid30481434, year = {2017}, author = {Johnson, SR}, title = {'Climate change is the greatest public health threat we have'.}, journal = {Modern healthcare}, volume = {47}, number = {16}, pages = {32-33}, pmid = {30481434}, issn = {0160-7480}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act ; *Politics ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {The Obama administration's public health efforts focused on acknowledging that social factors such as poverty and food insecurity affect the health outcomes of communities. The election of Donald Trump worries public health experts such as Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, who sat down with Modern Healthcare reporter Steven Ross Johnson to discuss what's next for public health under a Trump administration and where he sees opportunities for collaboration in a potential post-ACA world. The following is an edited transcript.}, }
@article {pmid29955325, year = {2017}, author = {Mudombi, S and Fabricius, C and van Zyl-Bulitta, V and Patt, A}, title = {The use of and obstacles to social learning in climate change adaptation initiatives in South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {292}, pmid = {29955325}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Global environmental change will have major impacts on ecosystems and human livelihoods while challenging the adaptive capacity of individuals and communities. Social learning, an ongoing adaptive process of knowledge generation, reflection and synthesis, may enhance people's awareness about climate change and its impacts, with positive outcomes for their adaptive capacity. The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of factors promoting social learning in climate change adaptation initiatives in South Africa. An online survey was used to obtain the views of decision makers in government and non-governmental organisations about the presence of personal factors and organisational factors that promote social learning. Descriptive analysis was used to assess these issues. The findings provide some evidence of social learning in climate change adaptation projects in South Africa, with the majority of respondents indicating that personal social learning indicators were present. Mechanisms for improved conflict resolution were, however, less prevalent. The organisational and governance-related barriers to implementation also presented significant challenges. Some of the main organisational barriers were short timeframes for implementing projects, inadequate financial resources, political interference, shortcomings in governance systems and lack of knowledge and expertise in organisations. There is a need for organisations to promote social learning by ensuring that their organisational environment and governance structures are conducive for their employees to embrace social learning. This will help contribute to the overall success of climate change adaptation initiatives.}, }
@article {pmid29741008, year = {2017}, author = {Chen, M and Kou, WH and Li, YH and Mao, WB and Sun, CS and Chen, SG}, title = {[Impacts of climate change on maize potential productivity in Northeast China and the simulation of control measures: A case study of Jilin Province, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {821-828}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201703.038}, pmid = {29741008}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Temperature ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {In this study, we collected data of meteorology, soil property, agricultural management and corn yield from five representative sites in Jilin Province, China, and integrated these data into a crop growth model of CERES-maize to simulate the potential productivity of five corn varieties. Our objectives were to simulate, calibrate and validate genetic parameters of the corns based on the analyses of climatic effects on the productivity, and to establish best practices for enhancing crop production in response to climatic change. The results showed that the projected days of sowing-flo-wering and flowering-maturing stages and yields of corn were well consistent with the measured va-lues with normalized mean variances being 2.96%, 3.40% and 9.37%, respectively, and the stan-dard deviation ranged from -10.6% to 15.2%. The mean projected light-temperature potential productivity (LTPP) of corns ranged from 7799.60 to 12902.83 kg·hm[-2]·a[-1], which decreased by 128.6-880.3 kg·hm[-2] every 10 years. The correlation analysis suggested that climate change, i.e. temperature rising and significant decline of total radiation during the growth of corns, dominated the decrease of LTPP of corns in the region. The simulated genetic parameters indicated that the LTPP of the corns increased linearly with the increase of P5 (filling stage characteristic parameter referred to silking to physiological maturity of more than 8 ℃ heat time). Our model estimated that the LTPP might increase 154.44-261.10 kg·hm[-2] for every 10 ℃·d increase of P5. The simulated sowing date delay showed that five days' sowing delay would maximize the LTPP of corns in Dunhua and Liaoyuan with 0.47% and 1.32% increase, respectively, while 15 days' delay would maximize the LTPP in Huadian and Yushu with 1.10% and 4.06% increase, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid29955332, year = {2017}, author = {Mugambiwa, SS and Tirivangasi, HM}, title = {Climate change: A threat towards achieving 'Sustainable Development Goal number two' (end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture) in South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {350}, pmid = {29955332}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {This article aims to assess the impacts of climate change towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal number two (SDG 2) as well as examining the poverty alleviation strategies by subsistence farmers in South Africa. Widespread hunger and poverty continue to be among the most life-threatening problems confronting mankind. Available statistics show that global poverty remains a serious challenge around the world. Across the globe, one in five people lives on less than $1 a day and one in seven suffers from chronic hunger. Similarly, the developing world is adversely affected by poverty and hunger. In the sub-Saharan Africa, research has revealed a higher prevalence of hunger, malnutrition, poverty and food insecurity. SDG 2 focuses more on eliminating hunger and promoting sustainable agriculture. The study employed an exploratory design and a qualitative method. Snowball sampling was used in selecting relevant sources which led the researchers to other research work on the same field through keywords and reference lists. The researchers employed discourse analysis to analyse data. The study discovered that there are numerous potential effects climate change could have on agriculture. It affects crop growth and quality and livestock health. Farming practices could also be affected as well as animals that could be raised in particular climatic areas. The impact of climate change as well as the susceptibility of poor communities is very immense. The article concludes that climate change reduces access to drinking water, negatively affects the health of people and poses a serious threat to food security.}, }
@article {pmid29922702, year = {2017}, author = {Erickson, LE and Jennings, M}, title = {Energy, Transportation, Air Quality, Climate Change, Health Nexus: Sustainable Energy is Good for Our Health.}, journal = {AIMS public health}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {47-61}, pmid = {29922702}, issn = {2327-8994}, abstract = {The Paris Agreement on Climate Change has the potential to improve air quality and human health by encouraging the electrification of transportation and a transition from coal to sustainable energy. There will be human health benefits from reducing combustion emissions in all parts of the world. Solar powered charging infrastructure for electric vehicles adds renewable energy to generate electricity, shaded parking, and a needed charging infrastructure for electric vehicles that will reduce range anxiety. The costs of wind power, solar panels, and batteries are falling because of technological progress, magnitude of commercial activity, production experience, and competition associated with new trillion dollar markets. These energy and transportation transitions can have a very positive impact on health. The energy, transportation, air quality, climate change, health nexus may benefit from additional progress in developing solar powered charging infrastructure.}, }
@article {pmid29964539, year = {2017}, author = {Cheng, G and Chen, J and Liu, JJ and Zhang, AF and Wang, XD and Feng, H and Zhao, Y}, title = {[Comparative Analysis on Effect of Wheat Straw and Its Biochar Amendment on Net Global Warming Potential Under Wheat-Maize Rotation Ecosystem in the Guanzhong Plain].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {38}, number = {2}, pages = {792-801}, doi = {10.13227/j.hjkx.201607071}, pmid = {29964539}, issn = {0250-3301}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Charcoal ; China ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Soil ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {In order to compare the differences in carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas mitigation between straw and straw-derived biochar amendment, a field experiment was conducted with simultaneous measurement of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, crop yield, soil organic carbon (SOC) content and net global warming potential (NGWP) in a wheat-maize rotation cropping system from the loess plateau of China. Five treatments were included:control (no straw incorporation, no straw-derived biochar amendment and no fertilization, CK), fertilization (no straw incorporation and no straw-derived biochar amendment, F), straw with fertilization (wheat straw incorporated at 8 t·hm[-2], FS), low straw-derived biochar (8 t·hm[-2]) with fertilization (FBlow) and high straw-derived biochar (16 t·hm[-2]) with fertilization (FBhigh). Wheat yield increased by 30.9%, 66.3% and 36.6% under FS, FBlow and FBhigh treatment, as compared to the F treatment, respectively. However, maize yield decreased by 14.1%, 18.0% and 24.6% under FS, CK and FBhigh treatment as compared to the F treatment, respectively. There was no significant difference between FBlow and F treatment. Annual CO2 emission increased by 60.2% under FS treatment, but decreased by 14.4% under FBhigh treatment as compared to the F treatment, respectively. Annual N2O emission decreased by 27.6% and 38.7% under FBlow and FBhigh treatment as compared to the F treatment, respectively. However, no significant difference was observed under straw application. Overall, the NGWP decreased by 24.13 and 58.44 t·hm[-2] under FBlow and FBhigh treatment as compared to the F treatment, respectively. And the NGHGI decreased by 1.78 and 5.06 t·t[-1] under FBlow and FBhigh treatment as compared to the F treatment, respectively. In summary, we conclude that the fertilization with 16 t·hm[-2] biochar amendment can be used as an effective management to improve the crop yield and reduce the net global warming potential under the wheat-maize rotation system.}, }
@article {pmid30271313, year = {2017}, author = {Wigand, C and Ardito, T and Chaffee, C and Ferguson, W and Paton, S and Raposa, K and Vandemoer, C and Watson, E}, title = {A climate change adaptation strategy for management of coastal marsh systems.}, journal = {Estuaries and coasts : journal of the Estuarine Research Federation}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {682-693}, pmid = {30271313}, issn = {1559-2723}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible an experimental BACI (Before-After, Control-Impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described, and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coastal systems faced with deteriorating habitat, accelerated sea level rise, and changes in precipitation and storm patterns.}, }
@article {pmid30203940, year = {2017}, author = {Blumm, MC and Wood, MC}, title = {"No Ordinary Lawsuit": Climate Change, Due Process, and the Public Trust Doctrine.}, journal = {The American University law review}, volume = {67}, number = {1}, pages = {1-87}, pmid = {30203940}, issn = {0003-1453}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects/*ethics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Carbon Dioxide/*adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Federal Government ; Fossil Fuels/*adverse effects ; Global Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Global Warming/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Greenhouse Gases/*adverse effects ; Human Rights/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Natural Resources ; Policy ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Social Responsibility ; Survival ; Trust ; United States ; }, abstract = {On November 10, 2016, just two days after the election of President Donald Trump, the federal district court in Oregon handed down Juliana v. United States. This remarkable decision refused to dismiss a lawsuit brought by youth plaintiffs who claimed that the federal government's fossil fuel policies over the years, which have produced an atmosphere with dangerous levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs), violated the federal public trust doctrine (PTD) and their federal constitutional rights to due process and equal protection. The court found a constitutional right to a stable climate system, determining that the PTD was an implicit part of due process and enforceable through the Constitution’s due process clause. At trial, if the youth plaintiffs are able to prove that for decades the government willfully disregarded information about the potential catastrophic effects of GHG pollution, or abdicated its public trust duties, the decision could be transformative in global efforts to shift to an energy policy that does not threaten young people and future generations. This Article examines Juliana, its context as part of a worldwide campaign of "atmospheric trust" litigation, its path-breaking reasoning, and its implications in the United States and abroad. The case has been described as "the case of the century" and, because of the harm it aims to address and the fundamental rights approach endorsed by the court, it just may be that. Pending the forthcoming trial and almost certain appeals, we think the case is, as the trial judge accurately recognized, "no ordinary lawsuit."}, }
@article {pmid30197568, year = {2017}, author = {Koopman, JFL and Kuik, O and Tol, RSJ and Brouwer, R}, title = {The potential of water markets to allocate water between industry, agriculture, and public water utilities as an adaptation mechanism to climate change.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {325-347}, pmid = {30197568}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {One of the climate change scenarios that have been developed for the Netherlands predicts hotter and drier summers and a substantial drop in river discharge. This might lead to water scarcity with detrimental economic and environmental effects. Among the possible adaptation responses to climate change-induced water scarcity, the re-allocation of water resources among competing uses should also be considered. In this paper, we extend and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the potential of water markets (water allocation according to its shadow price) to guide the allocation of scarce water across agriculture, manufacturing, and public water supply. We develop four scenarios in which the scope of water markets is increased from industry-specific to economy-wide. The results show that the agricultural sector bears nearly all of the losses from a new water-scarce climate, while the manufacturing sectors are able to mitigate their losses to a large extent by technical measures. Extending the scope of water markets unambiguously increases economic output and results in a re-allocation of water to the manufacturing sector from the agricultural sector and from public water services. If, perhaps for political reasons, public water services are excluded from water trading, water is re-allocated from agriculture to manufacturing. Depending on which sectors are included, the construction of a water market can have negative or positive effects on a sector's output, and although the implementation of water markets may be positive for overall economic output and can hence assist adaptation, the effect on vulnerable or societally sensitive economic sectors, such as public water, should be taken into account when implementing such a market.}, }
@article {pmid30197565, year = {2017}, author = {van der Pol, TD and van Ierland, EC and Gabbert, S}, title = {Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {267-285}, pmid = {30197565}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising flood risk management strategies under climate change. First, uncertainty about the changes in return periods of hydro-meteorological extremes is introduced by probability-weighted climate scenarios. Second, the analysis is extended by learning about climate change impacts. Learning occurs upon the probabilistic arrival of information. We distinguish between learning from scientific progress, from statistical evidence and from flood disasters. These probabilistic extensions can be used to analyse and compare the economic efficiency and flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. We offer a critical discussion of the scope of such extensions and options for increasing flexibility. We find that uncertainty reduction from scientific progress may reduce initial investments, while other types of learning may increase initial investments. This requires analysing effects of different types of learning. We also find that probabilistic information about climate change impacts and learning is imprecise. We conclude that risk-based CBA with learning improves the flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. However, CBA provides subjective estimates of expected outcomes and reflects different decision-maker preferences than those captured in robustness analyses. We therefore advocate robustness analysis in addition to, or combined with, cost-benefit analysis to support local investment decisions on flood risk reduction and global strategies on allocation of adaptation funds for flood risk management.}, }
@article {pmid30197564, year = {2017}, author = {Eikelboom, T and Janssen, R}, title = {Collaborative use of geodesign tools to support decision-making on adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {247-266}, pmid = {30197564}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Spatial planners around the world need to make climate change adaptation plans. Climate adaptation planning requires combining spatial information with stakeholder values. This study demonstrates the potential of geodesign tools as a mean to integrate spatial analysis with stakeholder participation in adaptation planning. The tools are interactive and provide dynamic feedback on stakeholder objectives in response to the application of spatial measures. Different rationalities formed by underlying internalized values influence the reasoning of decision-making. Four tools were developed, each tailored to different rationalities varying between a collective or individual viewpoint and analytical or political arguments. The tools were evaluated in an experiment with four groups of participants that were set around an interactive mapping device: the touch table. To study how local decision-making on adaptation can be supported, this study focuses on a specific case study in the Netherlands. In this case study, multiple different stakeholders need to make spatial decisions on land use and water management planning in response to climate change. The collaborative use of four geodesign tools was evaluated in an interactive experiment. The results show that the geodesign tools were able to integrate the engagement of stakeholders and assessment of measures. The experiment showed that decision-making on adaptation to climate change can benefit from the use of geodesign tools as long as the tool is carefully matched to the rationality that applies to the adaptation issue. Although the tools were tested to support the design of adaptation plans in a Dutch setting, the tools could be used for regional adaptation planning in other countries such as the development of regional adaptation strategies (RAS) as required by the European Union or on a national scale to support developing national adaptation plans of action (NAPAs) as initiated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for least developed countries.}, }
@article {pmid30174749, year = {2017}, author = {Borquez, R and Aldunce, P and Adler, C}, title = {Resilience to climate change: from theory to practice through co-production of knowledge in Chile.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {163-176}, pmid = {30174749}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {In theory, building resilience is touted as one way to deal with climate change impacts; however, in practice, there is a need to examine how contexts influence the capacity of building resilience. A participatory process was carried out through workshops in regions affected by drought in Chile in 2014. The aim was to explore how resilience theory can be better applied and articulated into practice vis-á-vis participatory approaches that enrich the research process through the incorporation of co-produced. The results show that there are more differences in responses by type of actor than between regions, where issues of national interest, such as 'education-information' and 'preparedness', are highlighted over others. However, historically relevant local topics emerged as differentiators: decentralisation, and political will. This reinforces why special attention must be given to the different understandings in knowledge co-production processes. This study provides evidence and lessons on the importance of incorporating processes of the co-production of knowledge as a means to better articulate and transfer abstract concepts, such as resilience theory, into practice.}, }
@article {pmid30147760, year = {2017}, author = {Chaudhury, AS and Thornton, TF and Helfgott, A and Sova, C}, title = {Applying the robust adaptation planning (RAP) framework to Ghana's agricultural climate change adaptation regime.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {657-676}, pmid = {30147760}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {This paper introduces a five-step framework, namely the Robust Adaptation Planning (RAP) framework, to plan and respond to the 'grand challenge' of climate change. RAP combines, under a unified framework, elements from robust action, participatory planning and network theory to capture the different motives, perception, and roles of actors that are important for climate change adaptation. RAP leverages existing structures and networks and involves diverse actors to plan, sequence and time strategies across multiple levels (i.e. from local to national). Actors identify adaptation interventions and important actor relations to develop wide networks, highlighting potential pathways for connecting action from central policy to local implementation (and vice versa). Comparing these proposed participatory structures with existing structures reveals actors deemed important for delivering adaptation, as well as gaps and overlaps in their relations. The end result is a robust plan covering many perspectives and local realities for both relieving immediate and adapting to longer-term consequences of climate change. We applied the RAP framework in Ghana's agricultural climate change adaptation regime to demonstrate its usefulness as a means of planning adaptation interventions in a climate-vulnerable, multi-actor and multi-level setting. The application of the RAP framework in this paper highlights how it can: (1) visualise the adaptation space (and its different components), and reduce the complexity of implementing adaptation responses; (2) offer a shared space to actors from all administrative levels to think and create collective narratives for adaptation without demanding explicit consensus and; (3) identify key actors and actions through a collaborative planning process, and allocate responsibility for the smooth delivery of adaptation interventions.}, }
@article {pmid30093822, year = {2017}, author = {Warren, M and Frolking, S and Dai, Z and Kurnianto, S}, title = {Impacts of land use, restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {1041-1061}, pmid = {30093822}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics of several management scenarios within the context of simulated twenty-first century climate change. Simulations of all scenarios with land use, including restoration, indicated net C losses over the twenty-first century ranging from 10 to 100 % of pre-disturbance values. Fire can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. Simulated 100 years of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) cultivation with an initial prescribed burn resulted in 2400-3000 Mg CO2 ha[-1] total emissions. Simulated restoration following one 25-year oil palm rotation reduced total emissions to 440-1200 Mg CO2 ha[-1], depending on climate. These results suggest that even under a very optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one third of the peat C lost to the atmosphere from 25 years of oil palm cultivation can be recovered in the following 75 years if the site is restored. Emissions from a simulated land degradation scenario were most sensitive to climate, with total emissions ranging from 230 to 10,600 Mg CO2 ha[-1] over 100 years for the wettest and driest dry season scenarios, respectively. The large difference was driven by increased fire probability. Therefore, peat fire suppression is an effective management tool to maintain tropical peatland C stocks in the near term and should be a high priority for climate mitigation efforts. In total, we estimate emissions from current cleared peatlands and peatlands converted to oil palm in Southeast Asia to be 8.7 Gt CO2 over 100 years with a moderate twenty-first century climate. These emissions could be minimized by effective fire suppression and hydrological restoration.}, }
@article {pmid30093820, year = {2017}, author = {Eitzinger, A and Läderach, P and Rodriguez, B and Fisher, M and Beebe, S and Sonder, K and Schmidt, A}, title = {Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {743-760}, pmid = {30093820}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers' food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons. We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10-38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10-41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.}, }
@article {pmid29749205, year = {2017}, author = {Li, S and Wu, ZW and Liang, Y and He, HS}, title = {[Drivers of human-caused fire occurrence and its variation trend under climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {210-218}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201701.037}, pmid = {29749205}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Carbon ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Fires ; Humans ; Taiga ; }, abstract = {The Great Xing'an Mountains are an important boreal forest region in China with high frequency of fire occurrences. With climate change, this region may have a substantial change in fire frequency. Building the relationship between spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors, and predicting the spatial patterns of human-caused fires under climate change scenarios are important for fire management and carbon balance in boreal forests. We employed a spatial point pattern model to explore the relationship between the spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors based on a database of historical fire records (1967-2006) in the Great Xing'an Mountains. The fire occurrence time was used as dependent variable. Nine abiotic (annual temperature and precipitation, elevation, aspect, and slope), biotic (vegetation type), and human factors (distance to the nearest road, road density, and distance to the nearest settlement) were selected as explanatory variables. We substituted the climate scenario data (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the current climate data to predict the future spatial patterns of human-caused fire occurrence in 2050. Our results showed that the point pattern progress (PPP) model was an effective tool to predict the future relationship between fire occurrence and its spatial covariates. The climatic variables might significantly affect human-caused fire occurrence, while vegetation type, elevation and human variables were important predictors of human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence probability was expected to increase in the south of the area, and the north and the area along the main roads would also become areas with high human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence would increase by 72.2% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and by 166.7% under the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050. Under climate change scenarios, the spatial patterns of human-caused fires were mainly influenced by the climate and human factors.}, }
@article {pmid29704340, year = {2016}, author = {Zhao, W and Shen, WS and Liu, HY}, title = {[Climate change risk of nature reserve and its assessment: A case study of Dalinuoer National Nature Reserve in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {27}, number = {12}, pages = {3831-3837}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201612.003}, pmid = {29704340}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forests ; *Grassland ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {According to the theoretical framework of addressing climate change based on risk mana-gement and the challenge to nature reserve management under climate change, climate change risk of nature reserve was analyzed and defined. Focus on birds and water habitat, grassland habitat, forest habitat, wetland habitat in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk assessment method of nature reserve under climate change was formulated, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were assessed and predicted. The results showed that, during the period from 1997 to 2010, there was significant volatility in dynamic changes of climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region, Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were in status of risk in 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2008, wetland habitat was also in status of risk in 2002 and 2004. Under scenario A, B and C, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region would be more serious in 2020 and 2030, compared with the 2010 level. Climate change risks to different habitats were different significantly, with most serious climate change risk to wetland habitat due to its sensitivity to climate change and rich bird resources. The effect of climate change on nature reserve and related risk would be aggravated by excess utilization of water resource and grassland resource. As climate change risks had appeared in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk management associated with climate change could greatly help to maintain and enhance biodiversity protection function of nature reserves.}, }
@article {pmid29696859, year = {2016}, author = {Zhao, ZF and Wei, HY and Guo, YL and Gu, W}, title = {[Potential distribution of Panax ginseng and its predicted responses to climate change.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {27}, number = {11}, pages = {3607-3615}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201611.040}, pmid = {29696859}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Panax/*physiology ; }, abstract = {This study utilized Panax ginseng as the research object. Based on BioMod2 platform, with species presence data and 22 climatic variables, the potential geographic distribution of P. ginseng under the current conditions in northeast China was simulated with ten species distribution model. And then with the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) as weights, we build an ensemble model, which integrated the results of 10 models, using the ensemble model, the future distributions of P. ginseng were also projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under the climate change scenarios of RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that for the entire region of study area, under the present climatic conditions, 10.4% of the areas were identified as suitable habitats, which were mainly located in northeast Changbai Mountains area and the southeastern region of the Xiaoxing'an Mountains. The model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats would have a relatively significant change under the different climate change scenarios, and generally the range of suitable habitats would be a certain degree of decrease. Meanwhile, the goodness-of-fit, predicted ranges, and weights of explanatory variables was various for each model. And according to the goodness-of-fit, Maxent had the highest model performance, and GAM, RF and ANN were followed, while SRE had the lowest prediction accuracy. In this study we established an ensemble model, which could improve the accuracy of the existing species distribution models, and optimization of species distribution prediction results.}, }
@article {pmid29693858, year = {2016}, author = {Jevtic, M}, title = {THE VOICE OF HEALTH: FINDING A CURE FOR THE CLIMATE CHANGE MALADY.}, journal = {Medicinski pregled}, volume = {69}, number = {11-12}, pages = {339-344}, doi = {10.2298/mpns1612339j}, pmid = {29693858}, issn = {0025-8105}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Delivery of Health Care ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Environment ; Global Health ; Humans ; Urbanization ; }, }
@article {pmid29450063, year = {2016}, author = {Flahault, A and de Castaneda, RR and Bolon, I}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases.}, journal = {Public health reviews}, volume = {37}, number = {}, pages = {21}, pmid = {29450063}, issn = {0301-0422}, abstract = {Global changes are major determinants for infectious diseases, although attributable, part of climate change remains debatable. Vector-borne diseases are prone to be impacted by global warming, although other factors may play a substantial role, evidenced by the dramatic decrease in malaria in the last decades in places where climate change has deep and significant effects. There is now evidence that in some areas of the world, e.g. Horn of Africa, warm El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), which are observed in the South Pacific Ocean, are associated with higher risk of emergence of Rift Valley fever, cholera and malaria and during cold La Niña events, dengue fever, chikungunya and yellow fever. This has been observed for these and other diseases in other parts of the world. For example, seasonal influenza outbreaks have been more intense (i.e. higher number) and more severe (i.e. higher mortality) when concomitant with La Niña events. Since climate scientists have recently observed that climate change is tied to more frequent and more intense ENSO events, we may foresee increases in frequency and severity in emerging infectious diseases in the world.}, }
@article {pmid29769989, year = {2016}, author = {Mathieu, K and Karmali, M}, title = {Vector-borne diseases, climate change and healthy urban living: Next steps.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {42}, number = {10}, pages = {219-221}, pmid = {29769989}, issn = {1188-4169}, }
@article {pmid29769980, year = {2016}, author = {Ogden, NH}, title = {Vector-borne disease, climate change and urban design.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {42}, number = {10}, pages = {202}, pmid = {29769980}, issn = {1188-4169}, }
@article {pmid29726129, year = {2016}, author = {Dai, EF and Zhou, H and Wu, Z and Wang, XF and Xi, WM and Zhu, JJ}, title = {[Simulation study on the effects of climate change on aboveground biomass of plantation in southern China: Taking Moshao forest farm in Huitong Ecological Station as an example].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {27}, number = {10}, pages = {3059-3069}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201610.011}, pmid = {29726129}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forests ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Global climate warming has significant effect on territorial ecosystem, especially on forest ecosystem. The increase in temperature and radiative forcing will significantly alter the structure and function of forest ecosystem. The southern plantation is an important part of forests in China, its response to climate change is getting more and more intense. In order to explore the responses of southern plantation to climate change under future climate scenarios and to reduce the losses that might be caused by climate change, we used climatic estimated data under three new emission scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.6 scenario, RCP4.5 scenario, and RCP8.5 scenario). We used the spatially dynamic forest landscape model LANDIS-2, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model PnET-2, to simulate the impact of climate change on aboveground net primary production (ANPP), species' establishment probability (SEP) and aboveground biomass of Moshao forest farm in Huitong Ecological Station, which located in Hunan Province during the period of 2014-2094. The results showed that there were obvious differences in SEP and ANPP among different forest types under changing climate. The degrees of response of SEP to climate change for different forest types were shown as: under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, artificial coniferous forest>natural broadleaved forest>artificial broadleaved forest. Under RCP8.5, natural broadleaved forest>artificial broadleaved forest>artificial coniferous forest. The degrees of response of ANPP to climate change for different forest types were shown as: under RCP2.6, artificial broadleaved forest> natural broadleaved forest>artificial coniferous forest. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, natural broadleaved forest>artificial broadleaved forest>artificial coniferous forest. The aboveground biomass of the artificial coniferous forest would decline at about 2050, but the natural broadleaved forest and artificial broadleaved forest showed a rising trend in general. During the period of 2014-2094, the total aboveground biomass under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios increased by 68.2%, 79.3% and 72.6%, respectively. The total aboveground biomass under various climatic scenarios sort as: RCP4.5>RCP8.5>RCP2.6. We thought that an appropriate temperature might be beneficial to the biomass accumulation in this study area. However, overextended temperature might hinder the sustainable development of forest production and ecological function.}, }
@article {pmid29442486, year = {2016}, author = {Adams, KA}, title = {The Psychohistory of Climate Change: A Clear and Present Danger.}, journal = {The Journal of psychohistory}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {114-136}, pmid = {29442486}, issn = {0145-3378}, mesh = {Authoritarianism ; Climate Change/*history ; *Earth, Planet ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Narcissism ; }, abstract = {The inability of contemporary society to transition from fossil fuels to green energy was engineered by the oil industry, which has worked for decades to stifle the emergence of ecological awareness. Climate change presents a clear and present danger to our society. The present dilemma is the result of the psychopathic corporate system, that pillages the earth for profit (extractivism), evades the real costs of production (externalizing costs), and pursues only self-interest (the best interests of the corporation). The well-being of the environment is thereby sacrificed for profit and our collective future is jeopardized. The corporate practice of creative destruction has gained such Thanatos-like momentum that it threatens the earth in its obsession with profit. Conservatives, under the sway of the unreality principle, dismiss climate change and block efforts to solve climate issues. For them, science is wish fulfillment based on denial. Their willingness to endanger the world results from their authoritarian upbringing. The corporal punishment they endured as children left a residue of rage—the impulse to destroy life—that underlies corporate rationality’s assault on the environment. Fearing death, they inflict death in a perverse ritual to feel alive. Compensating for the narcissistic wounds of childhood through the formation of a grandiose self, they are identified with the omnipotent parent, and alternate between suicidal impulse and escape via godlike technology. Conservative attacks on women highlight the residual wounds of relatedness to their dragon mothers, just as their relatedness to the environment involves a restaging of their encounters with their breast and toilet mothers. Solving environmental problems, however, will require more than overcoming conservative intransigence. The concept of ecological debt accentuates the importance of consumer choice for the environment. The United Nations Human Development Report 2015 regarding CO2 emissions demonstrates the massive environmental debt of Northern Hemisphere societies and suggests the magnitude of the transformation necessary to resolve the problem of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid30561914, year = {2016}, author = {Tullai-McGuinness, S and Berry, P and Chaudry, R}, title = {The Reality of Climate Change on Health.}, journal = {Ohio nurses review}, volume = {91}, number = {5}, pages = {12-3, 15}, pmid = {30561914}, issn = {0030-0993}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; Nursing/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid29558613, year = {2016}, author = {Ceballos, G}, title = {Four Commentaries on the Pope’s Message on Climate Change and Income Inequality. IV. Pope Francis’ Encyclical Letter Laudato Si’, Global Environmental Risks, and the Future of Humanity.}, journal = {The Quarterly review of biology}, volume = {91}, number = {3}, pages = {285-295}, doi = {10.1086/688261}, pmid = {29558613}, issn = {0033-5770}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Catholicism/history ; *Climate Change/history ; Conservation of Natural Resources/history/*trends ; Ecology/history/*trends ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Income/history/*trends ; *Leadership ; Poverty/history/*trends ; Risk Factors ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid29558612, year = {2016}, author = {DeWitt, CB}, title = {Four Commentaries on the Pope’s Message on Climate Change and Income Inequality. III. Earth Stewardship and Laudato Si’.}, journal = {The Quarterly review of biology}, volume = {91}, number = {3}, pages = {271-284}, pmid = {29558612}, issn = {0033-5770}, mesh = {Animals ; *Catholicism/history ; *Climate Change/history ; Conservation of Natural Resources/history/*trends ; Ecology/history/*trends ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Income/history/*trends ; *Leadership ; Poverty/history/*trends ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid29558611, year = {2016}, author = {Tucker, ME and Grim, J}, title = {Four Commentaries on the Pope’s Message on Climate Change and Income Inequality. II. Integrating Ecology and Justice: The Papal Encyclical.}, journal = {The Quarterly review of biology}, volume = {91}, number = {3}, pages = {261-270}, doi = {10.1086/688095}, pmid = {29558611}, issn = {0033-5770}, mesh = {*Catholicism/history ; *Climate Change/history ; Ecology/history/*trends ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Income/history/*trends ; *Leadership ; Poverty/history/*trends ; Social Justice/history/*trends ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid29558610, year = {2016}, author = {Raven, PH}, title = {Four Commentaries on the Pope’s Message on Climate Change and Income Inequality. I. Our World and Pope Francis’ Encyclical, Laudato si’.}, journal = {The Quarterly review of biology}, volume = {91}, number = {3}, pages = {247-295}, doi = {10.1086/688094}, pmid = {29558610}, issn = {0033-5770}, mesh = {*Catholicism/history ; *Climate Change/history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Income/history/*trends ; *Leadership ; Poverty/history/*trends ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid29964717, year = {2016}, author = {Zhang, C and Liu, HA and Gao, XP and Zhang, WN}, title = {[Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Phosphorus and DO in Yuqiao Reservoir].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {37}, number = {8}, pages = {2932-2939}, doi = {10.13277/j.hjkx.2016.08.014}, pmid = {29964717}, issn = {0250-3301}, abstract = {The climate indicators and water quality parameters, e.g. total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved oxygen (DO) in a period of 20 years (1992-2011) were analyzed to explore potential impacts of climate change on nutrients and DO. Firstly, the study period was divided into two decades: 1992-2001 cool decade and 2002-2011 warm decade for the Mann Kendall statistical test and the accumulative anomaly test. Secondly, the significance of climate parameters in seasonal variations was analyzed by comparing the nonlinear trends of parameters using non-parametric regression in two decades respectively. Finally, comparing the relationship between climate indicators and water quality parameters for two decades, the potential impacts were investigated by double-k method. The results showed that the higher temperature potentially decreased TP concentrations in winter and spring and DO concentration in autumn. However, the increases in air temperature in winter and spring increased DO concentration. The increase in wind speed was most likely to increase TP and DO concentrations in all four seasons. A positive correlation between precipitation and TP concentration was found in all four seasons. The DO concentration declined when rainfall decreased in summer. The difference in temporal trends between inflow P loading and concentrations in reservoir indicated the potential impacts of climate change on TP concentration. The field data in TP and macrophytes biomass in spring was the evidence supporting that TP in spring was likely to decline when the air temperature increased. The study provides a reference for the impacts and mechanisms of climate change on water quality in Yuqiao reservoir.}, }
@article {pmid29733145, year = {2016}, author = {Chen, H and Li, ZG and Tang, PQ and Hu, YN and Tan, JY and Liu, ZH and You, LZ and Yang, P}, title = {[Rice area change in Northeast China and its correlation with climate change.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {2571-2579}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201608.036}, pmid = {29733145}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture/*trends ; China ; *Climate Change ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Rain ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Based on the time-series map of rice area, a spatial production allocation model (SPAM) which has been applied for mapping the global level crop allocation datasets was deve-loped to simulate the spatio-temporal dynamics of rice area in Northeast China during 1980-2010 within 5'×5' grid cells. The spatio-temporal variations of rice area with temperature and precipita-tion during past 30 years were explored. The results indicated that the rice area expanded significantly northwards to46° N before 2000. After that, the increased sown area mainly occurred in the northern parts of Northeast China. Meanwhile, rice area also expanded eastwards to 131° E and toward the higher elevation regions (above 200 m). Due to a northward movement of accumulated temperature belts, the new rice area mainly appeared in the regions with an annual accumulated temperature (AAT) between 2800 and 3400 ℃·d. The trend of precipitation during the study period increased before 2000 and decreased afterwards. The increased rice area was found mainly in the regions with precipitation range from 300 mm to 600 mm.}, }
@article {pmid29733144, year = {2016}, author = {Li, XF and Zhao, HY and Zhu, HX and Wang, P and Wang, QJ and Wang, M and Li, YG}, title = {[Evolution of maize climate productivity and its response to climate change in Heilongjiang Province, China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {2561-2570}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201608.011}, pmid = {29733144}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Rain ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Zea mays/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Under the background of climate change, revealing the change trend and spatial diffe-rence of maize climate productivity in-depth and understanding the regularity of maize climatic resources utilization can provide scientific basis for the macro-decision of agricultural production in Heilongjiang Province. Based on the 1981-2014 meteorological data of 72 weather stations and the corresponding maize yield data in Heilongjiang Province, by the methods of step by step revisal, spatial interpolation and linear trend analysis, this paper studied the photosynthetic productivity (PP), light-temperature productivity (LTP), and climatic productivity (CP) of spring maize, and their temporal and spatial variation characteristics, main influencing factors and light energy utilization efficiency, and evaluated the maize climate productivities under different climate scenarios in the future. The results showed that during the study period, the mean PP, LTP and CP in Heilongjiang Province were 26558, 19953, 18742 kg·hm[-2], respectively. Maize PP, LTP and CP were high in plains and low in mountains, and gradually decreased from southwest to northeast. PP, LTP and CP presented significantly increasing trends, and the increase rates were 378, 723 and 560 kg·hm[-2]·(10 a)[-1], respectively. The increase of radiation and temperature had positive effect on maize production in Heilongjiang Province. The potential productivity of maize presented significant response to climate change. The decrease of solar radiation led to the decline of PP in western Songnen Plain, but the increased temperature compensated the negative effect of solar radiation, so the downward trend of LTP was slowed. The response to climate warming was particularly evident in North and East, and LTP was significantly increased, which was sensitive to the change of precipitation in southwest of Songnen Plain and part of Sanjiang Plain. The average ratio of maize actual yield to its climate productivity was only 24.1%, there was still 75.9% to be developed. In the future, the warm and wet climate would benefit the improvement of maize climate productivity, while the cold and dry climate would make an adverse impact.}, }
@article {pmid29955293, year = {2016}, author = {Ofoegbu, C and Chirwa, PW and Francis, J and Babalola, FD}, title = {Perception-based analysis of climate change effect on forest-based livelihood: The case of Vhembe District in South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {271}, pmid = {29955293}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Forests are vulnerable to climate change and are also major sources of livelihood for many rural households in Africa. This study examines rural people's perceptions of climate change impacts on forest-based livelihoods using rural communities of Vhembe District in South Africa as a case study. The study was based on the principles of perceived impact-based assessment, and sustainable livelihoods framework. Using the stratified proportionate random sampling procedure in combination with weighted Enumeration Area for the selected communities, 366 households were chosen and interviewed. Data analysis involved computing frequencies and conducting the Chi-square, binomial tests and binary logistic regression analysis. The respondents identified erratic rainfall, extreme temperature, extreme drought and flooding as key climatic events in their community. But not all identified key climatic events were perceived to constitute risk to forest products and forest-based livelihood. Only extreme drought was indicated to constitute risk to availability of forest products. In addition, the binary logistic regression showed a significant difference (p < 0.05) in the perceived risk of climate change to the availability of essential forest products across the three municipalities. Hence the need for forest development initiatives that target vulnerable forest products per community as a means of enhancing resilience of forest-based livelihood to climate change impacts in rural community development in South Africa.}, }
@article {pmid29737143, year = {2016}, author = {Zhao, XY and Xue, B}, title = {[Farmer's perception and adaptation intention for climate change in high-cold eco-fragile region: A case of Gannan Plateau, China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {27}, number = {7}, pages = {2329-2339}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201607.039}, pmid = {29737143}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Farmers/*psychology ; Humans ; *Intention ; }, abstract = {In order to provide reference for formulating the effective policies of climate change, we selected Ganan Plateau located in the eastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the study area, and used the farmer's investigation data to analyze the impact of the farmers' perception of climate change on their adaptation indention. The results showed that the farmer's severity perception of climate change declined from the pure agriculture household to the household with combined occupation, and to the non-agriculture household, but the farmer's adaptation efficacy perception was vice versa. Moreover, all of the perceived probability, self-efficacy and adaptation cost of the household with combined occupation were highest, those of the non-agriculture household were the second place and those of the pure agriculture household were the lowest. The farmer's positive adaptation indention of climate change increased from the pure agriculture household to the household with combined occupation, and to the non-agriculture household. Increasing the perceived risk and adaptation efficacy would promote the farmer's positive adaptation intention, but increasing the perceived adaptation cost would promote the farmers' passive adaptation intention. Meanwhile, the more the farmer's agricultural acreage, livestock, income and optimistic degree were, the stronger the farmer's positive adaptation intention was; But the more the farmers' fixed capital, unpaid cash assistance opportunities, relative number and the number of people offering help were, the weaker the farmers' positive adaptation intention was. Finally, we pointed out the measures of promoting the positive adaptation intention and the problems on which we should focus in the future research.}, }
@article {pmid29229027, year = {2016}, author = {Pearman, RBGI}, title = {Climate change and adaptation for health and social services.}, journal = {Australian journal of primary health}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {267-268}, doi = {10.1071/PYv22n3_BR}, pmid = {29229027}, issn = {1448-7527}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Social Work ; }, }
@article {pmid30159458, year = {2016}, author = {Ren, Z and Peng, H and Liu, ZW}, title = {The rapid climate change-caused dichotomy on subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan: Reduction in habitat diversity and increase in species diversity.}, journal = {Plant diversity}, volume = {38}, number = {3}, pages = {142-148}, pmid = {30159458}, issn = {2468-2659}, abstract = {Yunnan's biodiversity is under considerable pressure and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in this area have become increasingly fragmented through agriculture, logging, planting of economic plants, mining activities and changing environment. The aims of the study are to investigate climate change-induced changes of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in Yunnan and identify areas of current species richness centers for conservation preparation. Stacked species distribution models were created to generate ensemble forecasting of species distributions, alpha diversity and beta diversity for Yunnan's subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in both current and future climate scenarios. Under stacked species distribution models in rapid climate changes scenarios, changes of water-energy dynamics may possibly reduce beta diversity and increase alpha diversity. This point provides insight for future conservation of evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan, highlighting the need to fully consider the problem of vegetation homogenization caused by transformation of water-energy dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid29955320, year = {2016}, author = {Aleke, BI and Nhamo, G}, title = {Information and communication technology and climate change adaptation: Evidence from selected mining companies in South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {250}, pmid = {29955320}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The mining sector is a significant contributor to the gross domestic product of many global economies. Given the increasing trends in climate-induced disasters and the growing desire to find lasting solutions, information and communication technology (ICT) has been introduced into the climate change adaptation mix. Climate change-induced extreme weather events such as flooding, drought, excessive fog, and cyclones have compounded the environmental challenges faced by the mining sector. This article presents the adoption of ICT innovation as part of the adaptation strategies towards reducing the mining sector's vulnerability and exposure to climate change disaster risks. Document analysis and systematic literature review were adopted as the methodology. Findings from the study reflect how ICT intervention orchestrated changes in communication patterns which are tailored towards the reduction in climate change vulnerability and exposure. The research concludes with a proposition that ICT intervention must be part of the bigger and ongoing climate change adaptation agenda in the mining sector.}, }
@article {pmid29955318, year = {2016}, author = {Lethoko, MX}, title = {Inclusion of climate change strategies in municipal Integrated Development Plans: A case from seven municipalities in Limpopo Province, South Africa.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {245}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v8i3.245}, pmid = {29955318}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made it clear that anthropogenic greenhouse gasses are the main cause of observed global warming that leads to climate change. Climate change is now a global reality. In the South African political set-up, local municipalities are the structures that are in direct contact with communities and they draw up Integrated Development Plans (IDPs), which are reviewed and upgraded annually. The article seeks to investigate the extent to which climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies are embedded IDPs in seven vulnerable municipalities in the Limpopo Province. The article conducted an in-depth content analysis of the IDPs of the seven municipalities and the results have revealed that these municipalities have not included adaptation and mitigation strategies adequately in their IDPs despite being the most vulnerable municipalities in the province. The article concludes that these municipalities have not as yet institutionalised climate change in their daily operations, planning and decision making. To this end, the paper recommends that local municipalities should include climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in their IDPs.}, }
@article {pmid29732781, year = {2016}, author = {Hu, XQ and Xu, MY and He, YQ and Zhang, MD and Ji, WJ and Zhu, Y}, title = {[Effects of future climate change on climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco plantation in Yunnan, China.].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {1241-1247}, doi = {10.13287/j.1001-9332.201604.037}, pmid = {29732781}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Nicotiana/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The climatic suitability distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan will be profoundly affected by climate change. According to three key factors influencing climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan, namely, average temperature in July, sunshine duration from July to August, precipitation from April to September, the variations of climatic suitability distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan respectively in 1986-2005, 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios were investigated by using the climatic simulation data in 1981-2060 and the meteorological observation data during 1986-2005. The results showed that climatic suitability region would expand northward and eastward and plantable area of flue-cured tobacco would gradually increase. The increment of plantable area was more in 2041-2060 than in 2021-2040, and under RCP8.5 scenario than under RCP4.5 scenario. The optimum climatic area and sub-suitable climatic area were expanded considerably, while the suitable climatic area was not much changed. In the future, the north-central Yunnan such as Kunming, Qujing, Dali, Chuxiong, Lijiang would have a big increase in both the optimum climatic area and the cultivable area, meanwhile, the southern Yunnan including Wenshan, Honghe, Puer and Xishuangbanna would have a big decrease in both the optimum climatic area and the cultivable area.}, }
@article {pmid29955317, year = {2016}, author = {Namukombo, J}, title = {Information and communication technologies and gender in climate change and green economy: Situating women's opportunities and challenges in Zambian policies and strategies.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {243}, pmid = {29955317}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Zambia's 2012 report on the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (RIO +20) identifies existing opportunities on the country's transitioning to green economy. The RIO +20 conference of 2012 has resulted in new momentum in addressing problems of sustainable development. However, this article argues that there are practical challenges that require paying attention to, especially those involving women. The article addressed one key question: To what extent can women participate in the transitioning process to green economy in Zambia and what opportunities and challenges exists? The study used document analysis to answer the above question. National policy documents were reviewed to understand interventions on environmental management. Whilst going through the documents, the study used gender analysis frameworks (education, skills, roles in family and society, access to infrastructure) to bring out qualitative and quantitative information on women. Using suggested green economy interventions in the literature as benchmark, qualitative analysis was used to project possible participation of women in green economy activities and possible challenges to be faced. The study found that participation of women will be limited despite existing opportunities because of challenges of access to information and communication technology infrastructures, low educational levels and skills and financial constraints. As Zambia undergoes a transitioning process, these limitations should be addressed in planned green economy policies and interventions to maximise benefits.}, }
@article {pmid29955323, year = {2016}, author = {Joshua, MK and Ngongondo, C and Chipungu, F and Monjerezi, M and Liwenga, E and Majule, AE and Stathers, T and Lamboll, R}, title = {Climate change in semi-arid Malawi: Perceptions, adaptation strategies and water governance.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {255}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v8i3.255}, pmid = {29955323}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change and variability are a threat to sustainable agricultural production in semi-arid areas of Malawi. Overdependence on subsistence rain-fed agriculture in these areas calls for the identification of sustainable adaptation strategies. A study was therefore conducted in Chikwawa, a semi-arid district in southern Malawi, to: (1) assess community's perception of a changing climate against empirical evidence, (2) determine their local adaptive measures, (3) evaluate the potential of irrigated agriculture as an adaptive measure in household food security and (4) challenges over access to available water resources. The study employed focus group discussions and key informant interviews to assess people's perceptions of climate change and variability and their desired interventions. To validate the people's perceptions, rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960-2010 were analysed. A participatory complete randomised experimental design in both rain-fed and dry season-irrigated conditions was conducted to assess a maize cropping system that would improve adaptation. The study established persistent declining yields from rain-fed production in part because of perennial rainfall failure. In response, the community has shifted its focus to irrigation as an adaptation strategy, which has in turn triggered water conflicts in the community over the control of the resource. Water legislation however fails to adequately provide for rules governing sharing of water resources between various stakeholders. This article therefore recommends development of an appropriate institutional framework that forms a strong basis for equitable distribution of water for irrigation in areas most vulnerable to extreme climate events - including droughts and floods.}, }
@article {pmid29955322, year = {2016}, author = {Kupika, OL and Nhamo, G}, title = {Mainstreaming biodiversity and wildlife management into climate change policy frameworks in selected east and southern African countries.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {254}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v8i3.254}, pmid = {29955322}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The Rio+20 outcomes document, the Future We Want, enshrines green economy as one of the platforms to attain sustainable development and calls for measures that seek to address climate change and biodiversity management. This paper audits climate change policies from selected east and southern African countries to determine the extent to which climate change legislation mainstreams biodiversity and wildlife management. A scan of international, continental, regional and national climate change policies was conducted to assess whether they include biodiversity and/or wildlife management issues. The key finding is that many climate change policy-related documents, particularly the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs), address threats to biodiversity and wildlife resources. However, international policies like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol do not address the matter under deliberation. Regional climate change policies such as the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and African Union address biodiversity and/or wildlife issues whilst the Southern African Development Community region does not have a stand-alone policy for climate change. Progressive countries like Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia have recently put in place detailed NAPAs which are mainstream responsive strategies intended to address climate change adaptation in the wildlife sector.}, }
@article {pmid30026656, year = {2016}, author = {Nover, DM and Witt, JW and Butcher, JB and Johnson, TE and Weaver, CP}, title = {The effects of downscaling method on the variability of simulated watershed response to climate change in five U.S. basins.}, journal = {Earth interactions}, volume = {20}, number = {11}, pages = {1-27}, pmid = {30026656}, issn = {1087-3562}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; }, abstract = {Simulations of future climate change impacts on water resources are subject to multiple and cascading uncertainties associated with different modeling and methodological choices. A key facet of this uncertainty is the coarse spatial resolution of GCM output compared to the finer-resolution information needed by water managers. To address this issue, it is now common practice to apply spatial downscaling techniques, using either higher-resolution regional climate models or statistical approaches applied to GCM output to develop finer-resolution information for use in water resources impacts assessments. Downscaling, however, can also introduce its own uncertainties into water resources impacts assessments. This study uses watershed simulations in five U.S. basins to quantify the sources of variability in streamflow, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads associated with the underlying GCM compared to the choice of downscaling method (both statistically and dynamically downscaled GCM output). We also assess the specific, incremental effects of downscaling by comparing watershed simulations based on downscaled and non-downscaled GCM model output. Results show that the underlying GCM and the downscaling method each contribute to the variability of simulated watershed responses. The relative contribution of GCM and downscaling method to the variability of simulated responses varies by watershed and season of the year. Results illustrate the potential implications of one key methodological choice in conducting climate change impacts assessments for water - the selection of downscaled climate change information.}, }
@article {pmid29955316, year = {2016}, author = {Tabbo, AM and Amadou, Z and Danbaky, AB}, title = {Evaluating farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change: A case study of Kaou local government area, Tahoua State, Niger Republic.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {241}, pmid = {29955316}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The study discusses local farmers' strategies of coping with and building resilience against the negative impact of climate change. Information for the discussion was from data collected using a set of structured questionnaires from interviews scheduled with 128 farmers. The questionnaire was based on previous literature and direct reconnaissance interview with farmers, which culminated in 13 strategies used for the study being reported. For each question, respondents were asked to choose their best and worst strategies. Thus, the difference between the best and worst strategies consistent with random utility theory has been used for the modelling. Results show that semi-transhumance, various handicrafts making, rural migration, small-scale vegetable production and small-scale river exploitation were the most important strategies identified, whilst water transport and vending, shifting cultivation, gypsum mining, gathering and trading of wild fruits and edible plants as well as cattle and sheep fattening were the least appreciated strategies identified amongst the farmers facing climate change. These findings are therefore imperative for planning farmers' capacity-building and resilience against climate change projects to ensure sustainability in the study area.}, }
@article {pmid29955315, year = {2016}, author = {Ndhlovu, MP and Mpofu, T}, title = {Communal farming, climate change adaptation and the media in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {239}, doi = {10.4102/jamba.v8i3.239}, pmid = {29955315}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {Climate change is destroying Zimbabwean communal farmers' agricultural activities - a source of living for most people. As communal farmers struggle to adapt, the media is expected to assume a fundamental theoretical role of educating and informing them about the appropriate adaptation techniques. Located in Umguza District in Matabeleland North Province, the study explored how communal farmers created meaning out of climate change media content and its influence on their agricultural practices from October 2014 to April 2015. In doing so, the study used the Two-Step Flow theory and Hall's Encoding and Decoding Model. Entrenched in pragmatism, the study embedded quantitative techniques at different stages. Multistage sampling combining Simple Random Sampling (SRS), purposive and systematic sampling techniques was used to identify the 263 households for semi structured questionnaires, direct observations and in-depth interviews. The findings were analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), thematic analysis and pattern matching. The results show that personal observations; print, broadcast and online media; and opinion leaders were the main sources of climate change information. The radio was the most used medium in communicating climate change adaptation though it was the second most accessed after mobile phones. Conservation Agriculture and planting of drought-resistant crops were some of the adaptation techniques communicated in the media. When interacting with media content, communal farmers create their own meaning influenced by their cultural values, resulting in some adopting, rejecting or modifying certain adaptation techniques. The study concludes that opinion leaders are fundamental in communal farmers' interaction with media but their influence must not be overestimated.}, }
@article {pmid29955309, year = {2016}, author = {Ncube, M and Madubula, N and Ngwenya, H and Zinyengere, N and Zhou, L and Francis, J and Mthunzi, T and Olivier, C and Madzivhandila, T}, title = {Climate change, household vulnerability and smart agriculture: The case of two South African provinces.}, journal = {Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {182}, pmid = {29955309}, issn = {1996-1421}, abstract = {The impact of climate-change disasters poses significant challenges for South Africa, especially for vulnerable rural households. In South Africa, the impact of climate change at the local level, especially in rural areas, is not well known. Rural households are generally poor and lack resources to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change, but the extent of their vulnerability is largely not understood. This study looked at the micro-level impact of climate change, evaluated household vulnerability and assessed alternative adaptation strategies in rural areas. The results indicate that climate change will hit crop yields hard and that households with less capital are most vulnerable. These households consist of the elderly and households headed by females. Households that receive remittances or extension services or participate in formal savings schemes in villages are less vulnerable. The results suggest that households need to move towards climate-smart agriculture, which combines adaptation, mitigation and productivity growth.}, }
@article {pmid30197562, year = {2016}, author = {Araya, MM and Hofstad, O}, title = {Monetary incentives to avoid deforestation under the Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD)+ climate change mitigation scheme in Tanzania.}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {421-443}, pmid = {30197562}, issn = {1573-1596}, abstract = {The paper estimates and compares the level of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) payments required to compensate for the opportunity costs (OCs) of stopping the conversion of montane forest and miombo woodlands into cropland in two agro-ecological zones in Morogoro Region in Tanzania. Data collected from 250 households were used for OC estimation. REDD+ payment was estimated as the net present value (NPV) of agricultural rent and forest rent during land clearing, minus net returns from sustainable wood harvest, divided by the corresponding reduction in carbon stock. The median compensation required to protect the current carbon stock in the two vegetation types ranged from USD 1 tCO2e[-1] for the montane forest to USD 39 tCO2e[-1] for the degraded miombo woodlands, of which up to 70 % and 16 %, respectively, were for compensating OCs from forest rent during land clearing. The figures were significantly higher when the cost of farmers' own labor was not taken into account in NPV calculations. The results also highlighted that incentives in the form of sustainable harvests could offset up to 55 % of the total median OC to protect the montane forest and up to 45 % to protect the miombo woodlands, depending on the wage rates. The findings suggest that given the possible factors that can potentially affect estimates of REDD+ payments, avoiding deforestation of the montane forest would be feasible under the REDD+ scheme. However, implementation of the policy in villages around the miombo area would require very high compensation levels.}, }
@article {pmid30174739, year = {2016}, author = {Ayeb-Karlsson, S and van der Geest, K and Ahmed, I and Huq, S and Warner, K}, title = {A people-centred perspective on climate change, environmental stress, and livelihood resilience in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {679-694}, pmid = {30174739}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {The Ganges-Brahmaputra delta enables Bangladesh to sustain a dense population, but it also exposes people to natural hazards. This article presents findings from the Gibika project, which researches livelihood resilience in seven study sites across Bangladesh. This study aims to understand how people in the study sites build resilience against environmental stresses, such as cyclones, floods, riverbank erosion, and drought, and in what ways their strategies sometimes fail. The article applies a new methodology for studying people's decision making in risk-prone environments: the personal Livelihood History interviews (N = 28). The findings show how environmental stress, shocks, and disturbances affect people's livelihood resilience and why adaptation measures can be unsuccessful. Floods, riverbank erosion, and droughts cause damage to agricultural lands, crops, houses, and properties. People manage to adapt by modifying their agricultural practices, switching to alternative livelihoods, or using migration as an adaptive strategy. In the coastal study sites, cyclones are a severe hazard. The study reveals that when a cyclone approaches, people sometimes choose not to evacuate: they put their lives at risk to protect their livelihoods and properties. Future policy and adaptation planning must use lessons learned from people currently facing environmental stress and shocks.}, }
@article {pmid29972273, year = {2015}, author = {Barraclough, KA and Holt, SG and Agar, JW}, title = {Climate change and us: What nephrologists should know.}, journal = {Nephrology (Carlton, Vic.)}, volume = {20}, number = {10}, pages = {760-764}, doi = {10.1111/nep.12496}, pmid = {29972273}, issn = {1440-1797}, abstract = {Global warming poses significant risks to human health and the planet. If allowed to continue unchecked, its consequences will be devastating. While all populations will be effected with time, vulnerable groups, including those with kidney disease, are likely to be at primary risk. This paper summarizes the current state of scientific knowledge relevant to climate change. It discusses the contribution of the health-care system, and particularly dialysis programmes, to greenhouse gas emissions, and pathways that exist for nephrologists to mitigate their environmental impact.}, }
@article {pmid30174756, year = {2011}, author = {Arndt, C and Strzepeck, K and Tarp, F and Thurlow, J and Fant, C and Wright, L}, title = {Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique.}, journal = {Sustainability science}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {7-20}, pmid = {30174756}, issn = {1862-4057}, abstract = {Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003-2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key 'no-regret' adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid29505213, year = {2009}, author = {Deschenes, O and Greenstone, M and Guryan, J}, title = {Climate Change and Birth Weight.}, journal = {The American economic review}, volume = {99}, number = {2}, pages = {211-217}, doi = {10.1257/aer.99.2.211}, pmid = {29505213}, issn = {0002-8282}, mesh = {*Birth Weight ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Fetal Development ; Fetus ; Humans ; Pregnancy ; *Prenatal Exposure Delayed Effects ; *Temperature ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid29861694, year = {2007}, author = {}, title = {IUFRO Research Group 7.01 "Impacts of Air Pollution and Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems" Riverside, California, September 10-15, 2006.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {264-266}, doi = {10.1100/tsw.2007.105}, pmid = {29861694}, issn = {1537-744X}, }
@article {pmid29507152, year = {2006}, author = {}, title = {Correction for LeGrande et al., Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {103}, number = {27}, pages = {10527}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.0604012103}, pmid = {29507152}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid30147503, year = {2001}, author = {Haley, S}, title = {Dubya Echoes Confirmation of Human-Induced Global Warming Theory and an Antioxidant Unravels.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {48}, doi = {10.1100/tsw.2001.63}, pmid = {30147503}, issn = {1537-744X}, abstract = {U.S. President George W. Bush's nod to scientific evidence for human industrialization's major role in the onset of global climate change grabs both top story positions in Nature and Science this week.}, }
@article {pmid29667976, year = {1999}, author = {Reichhardt, T}, title = {Geophysicists call for action on global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {397}, number = {6718}, pages = {373}, doi = {10.1038/16964}, pmid = {29667976}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid29212454, year = {2017}, author = {Dong, F and Hung, CM and Li, XL and Gao, JY and Zhang, Q and Wu, F and Lei, FM and Li, SH and Yang, XJ}, title = {Ice age unfrozen: severe effect of the last interglacial, not glacial, climate change on East Asian avifauna.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {244}, pmid = {29212454}, issn = {1471-2148}, support = {31540092//National Natural Science Foundation of China/International ; 31101636//National Natural Science Foundation of China/International ; 2016FA043//Applied Basic Research Key Project of Yunnan/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Asia, Eastern ; *Ice Cover ; Models, Biological ; Phylogeography ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The glacial-interglacial cycles in the Pleistocene caused repeated range expansion and contraction of species in several regions in the world. However, it remains uncertain whether such climate oscillations had similar impact on East Asian biota, despite its widely recognized importance in global biodiversity. Here we use both molecular and ecological niche profiles on 11 East Asian avian species with various elevational ranges to reveal their response to the late Pleistocene climate changes.<br><br>RESULTS: The ecological niche models (ENM) consistently showed that these avian species might substantially contract their ranges to the south during the Last Interglacial period (LIG) and expanded their northern range margins through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), leading to the LGM ranges observed for all 11 species. Consistently, coalescent simulations based on 25-30 nuclear genes retrieved signatures of significant population growth through the last glacial period across all species studied. Climate statistics suggested that high climatic variability during the LIG and a relatively mild climate at the LGM potentially explained the historical population dynamics of these birds.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study based on multiple species and both lines of ecological niche profiles and genetic data to characterize the unique response of East Asian biota to late Pleistocene climate. The present study highlights regional differences in the evolutionary consequence of climate change during the last glacial cycle and implies that global warming might pose a great risk to species in this region given potentially higher climatic variation in the future analogous to that during the LIG.}, }
@article {pmid29212052, year = {2018}, author = {Miserendino, ML and Brand, C and Epele, LB and Di Prinzio, CY and Omad, GH and Archangelsky, M and Martínez, O and Kutschker, AM}, title = {Biotic diversity of benthic macroinvertebrates at contrasting glacier-fed systems in Patagonia Mountains: The role of environmental heterogeneity facing global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {622-623}, number = {}, pages = {152-163}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.320}, pmid = {29212052}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Chlorophyll ; Chlorophyll A ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; *Ice Cover ; *Invertebrates ; Rivers ; South America ; }, abstract = {Patagonia is by far the largest glacierized area in South America. However, little is known about ecology, functioning and biodiversity of glacier-fed streams facing global warming. We investigated changes in environmental features and macroinvertebrate communities along a longitudinal gradient of glacier influence of two Patagonian systems that differ in glacier cover magnitude and the spatial sequence of lotic and lentic phases. Both glaciers, Torrecillas (~5.5km[2], Torrecillas system) and Cónico (~0.44km[2], Baggilt system), are retreating. Longitudinal distribution of benthic invertebrates partially fitted to predictions for glacierized temperate systems, with Diamesinae spp. dominating at closest sites to the Cónico, and Orthocladiinae increasing downstream, but patterns were unclear at Torrecillas. Generalized Linear Model identified chlorophyll a and conductivity as having significant effect on richness and density respectively at Torrecillas; detritus biomass and gravel influenced species richness, and boulder percentage and water temperature affected density, at Baggilt. Canonical Correspondence Analyses integrating benthic biota and environmental variables revealed that a higher environmental heterogeneity at Baggilt, related with spatial dimension (unshaded/shaded reaches, wetland reaches), local resources (detritus, bryophytes) and temperature, probably explained the unexpected high richness in benthic assemblages (67 taxa). Environmental conditions imposed by the lake outlet (proglacial) at Torrecillas resulted in a less diverse community (31 taxa). Finally our results suggest that these isolated, small glacier-fed streams typical of the Patagonian landscape appear highly vulnerable to global warming. Endemic elements could disappear at upper segments being replaced by other species common at rhithral environments, which might increase local diversity (alfa diversity) but decrease regional diversity (gamma diversity). From an ecosystem perspective stream functioning can result altered. Glacier retreating or disappearing threatens major ecosystem services for Patagonian inhabitants such as water supply, hydrological regulation, recreation and tourism.}, }
@article {pmid29212051, year = {2018}, author = {Anache, JAA and Flanagan, DC and Srivastava, A and Wendland, EC}, title = {Land use and climate change impacts on runoff and soil erosion at the hillslope scale in the Brazilian Cerrado.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {622-623}, number = {}, pages = {140-151}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.257}, pmid = {29212051}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Land use and climate change can influence runoff and soil erosion, threatening soil and water conservation in the Cerrado biome in Brazil. The adoption of a process-based model was necessary due to the lack of long-term observed data. Our goals were to calibrate the WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) model for different land uses under subtropical conditions in the Cerrado biome; predict runoff and soil erosion for these different land uses; and simulate runoff and soil erosion considering climate change. We performed the model calibration using a 5-year dataset (2012-2016) of observed runoff and soil loss in four different land uses (wooded Cerrado, tilled fallow without plant cover, pasture, and sugarcane) in experimental plots. Selected soil and management parameters were optimized for each land use during the WEPP model calibration with the existing field data. The simulations were conducted using the calibrated WEPP model components with a 100-year climate dataset created with CLIGEN (weather generator) based on regional climate statistics. We obtained downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections, and runoff and soil loss were predicted with WEPP using future climate scenarios for 2030, 2060, and 2090 considering different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The WEPP model had an acceptable performance for the subtropical conditions. Land use can influence runoff and soil loss rates in a significant way. Potential climate changes, which indicate the increase of rainfall intensities and depths, may increase the variability and rates of runoff and soil erosion. However, projected climate changes did not significantly affect the runoff and soil erosion for the four analyzed land uses at our location. Finally, the runoff behavior was distinct for each land use, but for soil loss we found similarities between pasture and wooded Cerrado, suggesting that the soil may attain a sustainable level when the land management follows conservation principles.}, }
@article {pmid29211542, year = {2018}, author = {Woodward, AJ and Samet, JM}, title = {Climate Change, Hurricanes, and Health.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {1}, pages = {33-35}, pmid = {29211542}, issn = {1541-0048}, support = {U2R TW010125/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Disasters ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid29211325, year = {2018}, author = {Tomotani, BM and van der Jeugd, H and Gienapp, P and de la Hera, I and Pilzecker, J and Teichmann, C and Visser, ME}, title = {Climate change leads to differential shifts in the timing of annual cycle stages in a migratory bird.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {823-835}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14006}, pmid = {29211325}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Molting ; Netherlands ; Passeriformes/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Shifts in reproductive phenology due to climate change have been well documented in many species but how, within the same species, other annual cycle stages (e.g. moult, migration) shift relative to the timing of breeding has rarely been studied. When stages shift at different rates, the interval between stages may change resulting in overlaps, and as each stage is energetically demanding, these overlaps may have negative fitness consequences. We used long-term data of a population of European pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) to investigate phenological shifts in three annual cycle stages: spring migration (arrival dates), breeding (egg-laying and hatching dates) and the onset of postbreeding moult. We found different advancements in the timing of breeding compared with moult (moult advances faster) and no advancement in arrival dates. To understand these differential shifts, we explored which temperatures best explain the year-to-year variation in the timing of these stages, and show that they respond differently to temperature increases in the Netherlands, causing the intervals between arrival and breeding and between breeding and moult to decrease. Next, we tested the fitness consequences of these shortened intervals. We found no effect on clutch size, but the probability of a fledged chick to recruit increased with a shorter arrival-breeding interval (earlier breeding). Finally, mark-recapture analyses did not detect an effect of shortened intervals on adult survival. Our results suggest that the advancement of breeding allows more time for fledgling development, increasing their probability to recruit. This may incur costs to other parts of the annual cycle, but, despite the shorter intervals, there was no effect on adult survival. Our results show that to fully understand the consequences of climate change, it is necessary to look carefully at different annual cycle stages, especially for organisms with complex cycles, such as migratory birds.}, }
@article {pmid29211060, year = {2018}, author = {Pacheco, SE}, title = {Hurricane Harvey and climate change: the need for policy to protect children.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {83}, number = {1-1}, pages = {9-10}, pmid = {29211060}, issn = {1530-0447}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Disasters ; Health Policy ; Health Status ; Healthcare Disparities ; Humans ; Poverty ; Stress, Psychological ; Texas ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, }
@article {pmid29209338, year = {2017}, author = {Viana, DS}, title = {Can Aquatic Plants Keep Pace with Climate Change?.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {1906}, pmid = {29209338}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The persistence of species may depend upon their capacity to keep pace with climate change. However, dispersal has been ignored in the vast majority of studies that aimed at estimating and predicting range shifts as a response to climate change. Long distance dispersal (LDD) in particular might promote rapid range shifts and allow species to track suitable habitat. Many aquatic plant species are dispersed by birds and have the potential to be dispersed over hundreds of kilometers during the bird migration seasons. I argue that such dispersal potential might be critical to allow species to track climate change happening at unprecedented high rates. As a case study, I used dispersal data from three aquatic plant species dispersed by migratory birds to model range shifts in response to climate change projections. By comparing four dispersal scenarios - (1) no dispersal, (2) unlimited dispersal, (3) LDD < 100 km, and (4) LDD mediated by bird migratory movements -, it was shown that, for bird-mediated dispersal, the rate of colonization is sufficient to counterbalance the rate of habitat loss. The estimated rates of colonization (3.2-31.5 km⋅year[-1]) are higher than, for example, the rate of global warming (previously estimated at 0.42 km⋅year[-1]). Although further studies are needed, the results suggest that these aquatic plant species can adjust their ranges under a severe climate change scenario. Therefore, investigating the dispersal capacity of species, namely their LDD potential, may contribute to estimate the likelihood of species to keep pace with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29207285, year = {2018}, author = {Martinez, GS and Diaz, J and Hooyberghs, H and Lauwaet, D and De Ridder, K and Linares, C and Carmona, R and Ortiz, C and Kendrovski, V and Aerts, R and Van Nieuwenhuyse, A and Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, M}, title = {Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {111}, number = {}, pages = {135-143}, pmid = {29207285}, issn = {1873-6750}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Belgium ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Forecasting ; Hospitalization ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mortality ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence.<br><br>METHODS: We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986-2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026-2045) and one in the far future (2081-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009-2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature.<br><br>RESULTS: During the sample period 2009-2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26&#xb0;C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8-23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78-41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00-105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future.<br><br>CONCLUSION: These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.}, }
@article {pmid29206887, year = {2017}, author = {Ordoñez, A and Kennedy, EV and Diaz-Pulido, G}, title = {Reduced spore germination explains sensitivity of reef-building algae to climate change stressors.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {e0189122}, pmid = {29206887}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; *Germination ; Seaweed/*physiology ; Spores/*growth &amp; development ; *Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Reduced seawater pH and changes in carbonate chemistry associated with ocean acidification (OA) decrease the recruitment of crustose coralline algae (CCAcf.), an important coral-reef builder. However, it is unclear whether the observed decline in recruitment is driven by impairment of spore germination, or post-settlement processes (e.g. space competition). To address this, we conducted an experiment using a dominant CCA, Porolithon cf. onkodes to test the independent and combined effects of OA, warming, and irradiance on its germination success and early development. Elevated CO2 negatively affected several processes of spore germination, including formation of the germination disc, initial growth, and germling survival. The magnitude of these effects varied depending on the levels of temperature and irradiance. For example, the combination of high CO2 and high temperature reduced formation of the germination disc, but this effect was independent of irradiance levels, while spore abnormalities increased under high CO2 and high temperature particularly in combination with low irradiance intensity. This study demonstrates that spore germination of CCA is impacted by the independent and interactive effects of OA, increasing seawater temperature and irradiance intensity. For the first time, this provides a mechanism for how the sensitivity of critical early life history processes to global change may drive declines of adult populations of key marine calcifiers.}, }
@article {pmid29206879, year = {2017}, author = {Alkishe, AA and Peterson, AT and Samy, AM}, title = {Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {e0189092}, pmid = {29206879}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Africa, Northern ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Ixodes/*microbiology ; Lyme Disease/transmission ; Middle East ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades.<br><br>METHOD: We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070.<br><br>RESULT: The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions.}, }
@article {pmid29203077, year = {2018}, author = {Röder, M and Thornley, P}, title = {Waste wood as bioenergy feedstock. Climate change impacts and related emission uncertainties from waste wood based energy systems in the UK.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {74}, number = {}, pages = {241-252}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2017.11.042}, pmid = {29203077}, issn = {1879-2456}, mesh = {*Biofuels ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Coal ; Fossil Fuels ; Greenhouse Effect ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Considering the urgent need to shift to low carbon energy carriers, waste wood resources could provide an alternative energy feedstock and at the same time reduce emissions from landfill. This research examines the climate change impacts and related emission uncertainties of waste wood based energy. For this, different grades of waste wood and energy application have been investigated using lifecycle assessment. Sensitivity analysis has then been applied for supply chain processes and feedstock properties for the main emission contributing categories: transport, processing, pelletizing, urea resin fraction and related N2O formation. The results show, depending on the waste wood grade, the conversion option, scale and the related reference case, that emission reductions of up to 91% are possible for non-treated wood waste. Compared to this, energy from treated wood waste with low contamination can achieve up to 83% emission savings, similar to untreated waste wood pellets, but in some cases emissions from waste wood based energy can exceed the ones of the fossil fuel reference - in the worst case by 126%. Emission reductions from highly contaminated feedstocks are largest when replacing electricity from large-scale coal and landfill. The highest emission uncertainties are related to the wood's resin fraction and N2O formation during combustion and, pelletizing. Comparing wood processing with diesel and electricity powered equipment also generated high variations in the results, while emission variations related to transport are relatively small. Using treated waste wood as a bioenergy feedstock can be a valid option to reduce emissions from energy production but this is only realisable if coal and landfill gas are replaced. To achieve meaningful emission reduction in line with national and international climate change targets, pre-treatment of waste wood would be required to reduce components that form N2O during the energy conversion.}, }
@article {pmid29202413, year = {2018}, author = {Hernroth, BE and Baden, SP}, title = {Alteration of host-pathogen interactions in the wake of climate change - Increasing risk for shellfish associated infections?.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {161}, number = {}, pages = {425-438}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2017.11.032}, pmid = {29202413}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Humans ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Norway ; *Seawater ; *Shellfish/parasitology ; }, abstract = {The potential for climate-related spread of infectious diseases through marine systems has been highlighted in several reports. With this review we want to draw attention to less recognized mechanisms behind vector-borne transmission pathways to humans. We have focused on how the immune systems of edible marine shellfish, the blue mussels and Norway lobsters, are affected by climate related environmental stressors. Future ocean acidification (OA) and warming due to climate change constitute a gradually increasing persistent stress with negative trade-off for many organisms. In addition, the stress of recurrent hypoxia, inducing high levels of bioavailable manganese (Mn) is likely to increase in line with climate change. We summarized that OA, hypoxia and elevated levels of Mn did have an overall negative effect on immunity, in some cases also with synergistic effects. On the other hand, moderate increase in temperature seems to have a stimulating effect on antimicrobial activity and may in a future warming scenario counteract the negative effects. However, rising sea surface temperature and climate events causing high land run-off promote the abundance of naturally occurring pathogenic Vibrio and will in addition, bring enteric pathogens which are circulating in society into coastal waters. Moreover, the observed impairments of the immune defense enhance the persistence and occurrence of pathogens in shellfish. This may increase the risk for direct transmission of pathogens to consumers. It is thus essential that in the wake of climate change, sanitary control of coastal waters and seafood must recognize and adapt to the expected alteration of host-pathogen interactions.}, }
@article {pmid29202078, year = {2017}, author = {Zhang, Y and Feng, R and Wu, R and Zhong, P and Tan, X and Wu, K and Ma, L}, title = {Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China.}, journal = {Global health research and policy}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {10}, pmid = {29202078}, issn = {2397-0642}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There was no consistent definition for heat wave worldwide, while a limited number of studies have compared the mortality effect of heat wave as defined differently. This paper aimed to provide epidemiological evidence for policy makers to determine the most appropriate definition for local heat wave warning systems.<br><br>METHODS: We developed 45 heat wave definitions (HWs) combining temperature indicators and temperature thresholds with durations. We then assessed the impact of heat waves under various definitions on non-accidental mortality in hot season (May-September) in Wuhan, China during 2003-2010.<br><br>RESULTS: Heat waves defined by HW14 (daily mean temperature&#x2009;&#x2265;&#x2009;99.0th percentile and duration&#x2009;&#x2265;&#x2009;3&#xa0;days) had the best predictive ability in assessing the mortality effects of heat wave with the relative risk of 1.63 (95% CI: 1.43, 1.89) for total mortality. The group-specific mortality risk using official heat wave definition of Chinese Meteorological Administration was much smaller than that using HW14. We also found that women, and the elderly (age&#x2009;&#x2265;&#x2009;65) were more susceptible to heat wave effects which were stronger and longer lasting.<br><br>CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that region specific heat wave definitions are crucial and necessary for developing efficient local heat warning systems and for providing evidence for policy makers to protect the vulnerable population.}, }
@article {pmid29198265, year = {2018}, author = {Makkar, HPS}, title = {Review: Feed demand landscape and implications of food-not feed strategy for food security and climate change.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {1744-1754}, doi = {10.1017/S175173111700324X}, pmid = {29198265}, issn = {1751-732X}, mesh = {*Animal Feed ; Animals ; Biofuels ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Livestock ; }, abstract = {The food-feed competition is one of the complex challenges, and so are the ongoing climate change, land degradation and water shortage for realizing sustainable food production systems. By 2050 the global demand for animal products is projected to increase by 60% to 70%, and developing countries will have a lion's share in this increase. Currently, ~800 million tonnes of cereals (one-third of total cereal production) are used in animal feed and by 2050 it is projected to be over 1.1 billion tonnes. Most of the increase in feed demand will be in developing countries, which already face many food security challenges. Additional feed required for the projected increased demand of animal products, if met through food grains, will further exacerbate the food insecurity in these countries. Furthermore, globally, the production, processing and transport of feed account for 45% of the greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector. This paper presents approaches for addressing these challenges in quest for making livestock sector more sustainable. The use of novel human-inedible feed resources such as insect meals, leaf meals, protein isolates, single cell protein produced using waste streams, protein hydrolysates, spineless cactus, algae, co-products of the biofuel industry, food wastes among others, has enormous prospects. Efficient use of grasslands also offers possibilities for increasing carbon sequestration, land reclamation and livestock productivity. Opportunities also exist for decreasing feed wastages by simple and well proven practices such as use of appropriate troughs, increase in efficiency of harvesting crop residues and their conversion to complete feeds especially in the form of densified feed blocks or pellets, feeding as per the nutrient requirements, among others. Available evidence have been presented to substantiate arguments that: (a) for successful and sustained adoption of a feed technology, participation of the private sector and a sound business plan are required, (b) for sustainability of the livestock production systems, it is also important to consider the consumption of animal products and a case has been presented to assess future needs of animal source foods based on their requirements for healthy living,}, }
@article {pmid29197290, year = {2018}, author = {Couture, RM and Moe, SJ and Lin, Y and Kaste, &#xd8; and Haande, S and Lyche Solheim, A}, title = {Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {621}, number = {}, pages = {713-724}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.303}, pmid = {29197290}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria ; *Eutrophication ; Lakes/*analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; Norway ; Phytoplankton ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Excess nutrient inputs and climate change are two of multiple stressors affecting many lakes worldwide. Lake Vansjø in southern Norway is one such eutrophic lake impacted by blooms of toxic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), and classified as moderate ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. Future climate change may exacerbate the situation. Here we use a set of chained models (global climate model, hydrological model, catchment phosphorus (P) model, lake model, Bayesian Network) to assess the possible future ecological status of the lake, given the set of climate scenarios and storylines common to the EU project MARS (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). The model simulations indicate that climate change alone will increase precipitation and runoff, and give higher P fluxes to the lake, but cause little increase in phytoplankton biomass or changes in ecological status. For the storylines of future management and land-use, however, the model results indicate that both the phytoplankton biomass and the lake ecological status can be positively or negatively affected. Our results also show the value in predicting a biological indicator of lake ecological status, in this case, cyanobacteria biomass with a BN model. For all scenarios, cyanobacteria contribute to worsening the status assessed by phytoplankton, compared to using chlorophyll-a alone.}, }
@article {pmid29197040, year = {2018}, author = {Whiteman, JP and Harlow, HJ and Durner, GM and Regehr, EV and Amstrup, SC and Ben-David, M}, title = {Phenotypic plasticity and climate change: can polar bears respond to longer Arctic summers with an adaptive fast?.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {186}, number = {2}, pages = {369-381}, pmid = {29197040}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {OPP0732713//National Science Foundation/International ; F91737301//U.S. Environmental Protection Agency/International ; NNG05G165H//Wyoming NASA Space Grant Consortium/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Female ; Ice Cover ; Seasons ; *Ursidae ; }, abstract = {Plasticity in the physiological and behavioural responses of animals to prolonged food shortages may determine the persistence of species under climate warming. This is particularly applicable for species that can "adaptively fast" by conserving protein to protect organ function while catabolizing endogenous tissues. Some Ursids, including polar bears (Ursus maritimus), adaptively fast during winter hibernation-and it has been suggested that polar bears also employ this strategy during summer. We captured 57 adult female polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) during summer 2008 and 2009 and measured blood variables that indicate feeding, regular fasting, and adaptive fasting. We also assessed tissue δ[13]C and δ[15]N to infer diet, and body condition via mass and length. We found that bears on shore maintained lipid and protein stores by scavenging on bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) carcasses from human harvest, while those that followed the retreating sea ice beyond the continental shelf were food deprived. They had low ratios of blood urea to creatinine (U:C), normally associated with adaptive fasting. However, they also exhibited low albumin and glucose (indicative of protein loss) and elevated alanine aminotransferase and ghrelin (which fall during adaptive fasting). Thus, the ~ 70% of the SBS subpopulation that spends summer on the ice experiences more of a regular, rather than adaptive, fast. This fast will lengthen as summer ice declines. The resulting protein loss prior to winter could be a mechanism driving the reported correlation between summer ice and polar bear reproduction and survival in the SBS.}, }
@article {pmid29196806, year = {2018}, author = {Battisti, R and Sentelhas, PC and Boote, KJ}, title = {Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {823-832}, pmid = {29196806}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {2013/05306-0//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; 2014/09424-0//Funda&#xe7;&#xe3;o de Amparo &#xe0; Pesquisa do Estado de S&#xe3;o Paulo/ ; }, mesh = {Brazil ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; *Models, Theoretical ; Plant Transpiration ; Rain ; Glycine max/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO2] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (- 30, - 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (- 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha[-1] for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from - 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO2] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO2.}, }
@article {pmid29195537, year = {2016}, author = {Divakaran, B and Lembeck, S and Kerr, R and Calmus, H and Potter, T}, title = {Nurses See "The Big Picture": Addressing Climate Change as a Social Determinant of Global Health.}, journal = {Creative nursing}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {243-248}, doi = {10.1891/1078-4535.22.4.243}, pmid = {29195537}, issn = {1078-4535}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Global Health/*standards ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Nurse's Role ; *Social Determinants of Health ; }, abstract = {Although it is well known that health is influenced by social determinants, climate change is an underrepresented determinant of health within nursing and health care literature, curriculum, and practice. There is urgent need to recognize climate change as a current and future threat to human and environmental health. This article describes the role of nursing in taking action on climate change now and in the future. The profession of nursing, with its ongoing commitment to social justice and its unique position to collaborate with patients and other health care professionals, is particularly well situated to activate change to protect and promote the health of individuals, populations, and future generations.}, }
@article {pmid29193745, year = {2018}, author = {Park, DJ}, title = {United States news media and climate change in the era of US President Trump.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {202-204}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.2011}, pmid = {29193745}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Policy ; *Global Warming ; *Mass Media ; United States ; }, abstract = {The Donald J Trump administration's strategy to disengage and downplay the Paris Climate Agreement will likely result in a slight decrease in the already low levels of US news media global warming coverage. This is because significant limitations with the news media's ability to adequately cover climate change predated the administration. First, studies indicate that advertising interests and editors have always challenged journalists' abilities to adequately report on climate change issues. Instead of climate change stories, editors often prefer more sensational topics that garner higher ratings and approval with advertisers. Second, the journalistic norm of balance and the role of sourcing give climate skeptics exceptional media exposure, which creates a "false balance" or equivalency between skeptics and scientists. Third, the massive power and influence of the fossil fuel industry's public relations arm has also had a tremendous impact on public (mis)understanding of climate change. Fourth, a trend toward declining climate change coverage and "climate silence" in US media is developing. Media corporations have substantially eliminated the number of environmental journalists that cover climate change. The overall effect of these limitations distorts public understanding of climate change and delays potential government action. Moving away from a predominantly commercial media system to one with a substantial noncommercial component can improve US journalism, whereas using advertising to increase rates for environmentally unsound products and services may also help mitigate global warming. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:202-204. © 2018 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid29193692, year = {2018}, author = {Sanganyado, E and Teta, C and Masiri, B}, title = {Impact of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {189-193}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.2010}, pmid = {29193692}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {Africa ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Culture ; Droughts ; Environment ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Environmental Policy ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Recent studies show cultural worldviews are a key determinant of environmental risk perceptions; thus, they could influence climate change adaptation strategies. African traditional worldviews encourage harmony between humans and the environment through a complex metaphysical belief system transmitted through folklore, taboos, and traditional knowledge. However, African traditional worldviews hold a belief in traditional gods that was shown to have a low connectedness to nature and a low willingness to change. In Makueni District, Kenya, 45% of agropastoralists surveyed believed drought was god's plan and could not be changed. In contrast, traditional knowledge, which is shaped by African traditional worldviews, is often used to frame adaptive strategies such as migration, changing modes of production, and planting different crop varieties. Furthermore, traditional knowledge has been used as a complement to science in areas where meteorological data was unavailable. However, the role of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaption remains understudied. Hence, there is a need to systematically establish the influence of African traditional worldviews on climate change risk perception, development of adaptive strategies, and policy formulation and implementation. In this commentary, we discuss the potential impacts of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:189-193. © 2018 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid29192830, year = {2017}, author = {Sannes, PL}, title = {Hyaluronan: Local Climate Change in Asthma?.}, journal = {American journal of respiratory cell and molecular biology}, volume = {57}, number = {6}, pages = {635-636}, pmid = {29192830}, issn = {1535-4989}, mesh = {Animals ; Asthma/*metabolism/pathology/physiopathology ; *Cell Movement ; *Cellular Microenvironment ; Extracellular Matrix/*metabolism/pathology ; Humans ; Hyaluronic Acid/*metabolism ; Lung/*metabolism/pathology ; }, }
@article {pmid29192763, year = {2018}, author = {Mellett, T and Selvin, C and Defforey, D and Roberts, K and Lecher, AL and Dennis, K and Gutknecht, J and Field, C and Paytan, A}, title = {Assessing Cumulative Effects of Climate Change Manipulations on Phosphorus Limitation in a Californian Grassland.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {52}, number = {1}, pages = {98-106}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.7b04362}, pmid = {29192763}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {California ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Grassland ; *Phosphorus ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Grasslands throughout the world are responding in diverse ways to changing climate and environmental conditions. In this study we analyze indicators of phosphorus limitation including phosphorus concentrations, phosphorus to nitrogen, and carbon ratios, oxygen isotope ratios of phosphate in vegetation, and phosphatase enzyme activity in soil to shed light on potential effects of climate change on phosphorus availability to grassland vegetation. The study was conducted at the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE), California where manipulations mimicking increases in temperature, water, nitrogen and carbon-dioxide have been maintained for over 15 years. We compare our results to an earlier study conducted 3 years after the start of the experiment, in order to assess any change in the response of phosphorus over time. Our results suggest that a decade later the measured indicators show similar or only slightly stronger responses. Specifically, addition of nitrogen, the principle parameter controlling biomass growth, increased phosphorus demand but thresholds that suggest P limitation were not reached. A study documenting changes in net primary productivity (NPP) over time at the JRGCE also could not identify a progressive effect of the manipulations on NPP. Combined these results indicate that the vegetation in these grassland systems is not very sensitive to the range of climate parameters tested.}, }
@article {pmid29192174, year = {2017}, author = {Clilverd, MA and Duthie, R and Rodger, CJ and Hardman, RL and Yearby, KH}, title = {Long-term climate change in the D-region.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {16683}, pmid = {29192174}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Controversy exists over the potential effects of long-term increases in greenhouse gas concentrations on the ionospheric D-region at 60-90 km altitudes. Techniques involving in-situ rocket measurements, remote optical observations, and radio wave reflection experiments have produced conflicting results. This study reports a novel technique that analyses long-distance subionospheric very low frequency radiowave observations of the NAA 24.0 kHz transmitter, Cutler, Maine, made from Halley Station, Antarctica, over the period 1971-2016. The analysis is insensitive to any changes in the output power of the transmitter, compensates for the use of different data logging equipment, and can confirm the accuracy of the timing systems operated over the 45 year long record. A ~10% reduction in the scale size of the transmitter nighttime interference fringe pattern has been determined, taking into account the quasi-11 year solar cycle. Subionospheric radiowave propagation modeling suggests that the contraction of the interference fringe pattern about the mid-latitude NAA transmitter is due to a 3 km reduction in the effective height of the nighttime ionospheric D-region over the last 45 years. This is consistent with the effect of enhanced infra-red cooling by increasing greenhouse gases.}, }
@article {pmid29190035, year = {2018}, author = {Zhai, X and Zhang, Y}, title = {Impact assessment of projected climate change on diffuse phosphorous loss in Xin'anjiang catchment, China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {25}, number = {5}, pages = {4570-4583}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-017-0790-8}, pmid = {29190035}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {No. 41671024//Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; No. 2014041//China Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS/ ; No. 2015RC201//Program for "Bingwei" Excellent Talents in IGSNRR CAS/ ; }, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Floods ; Forecasting ; *Models, Theoretical ; Phosphorus/*analysis ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Seasons ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Diffuse nutrient loss is a serious threat to water security and has severely deteriorated water quality throughout the world. Xin'anjiang catchment, as a main drinking water source for Hangzhou City, has been a national concern for water environment protection with payment for watershed services construction. Detection of diffuse phosphorous (DP) pollution dynamics under climate change is significant for sustainable water quality management. In this study, the impact of projected climate change on DP load was analyzed using SWAT to simulate the future changes of diffuse components (carriers: water discharge and sediment; nutrient: DP) at both station and sub-catchment scales under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Results showed that wetting and warming years were expected with increasing tendencies of both precipitation and temperature in the two future periods (2020s: 2021~2030, 2030s: 2031~2040) except in the 2020s in the RCP2.6 scenario, and the annual average increasing ratios of precipitation and temperature reached - 1.79~3.79% and 0.48~1.27 °C, respectively, comparing with those in the baseline (2000s: 2001~2010). Climate change evidently altered annual and monthly average water discharge and sediment load, while it has a remarkable impact on the timing and monthly value of DP load at station scale. DP load tended to increase in the non-flood season at Yuliang due to strengthened nutrient flushing from rice land into rivers with increasing precipitation and enhanced phosphorous cycle in soil layers with increasing temperature, while it tended to decrease in the flood season at Yuliang and in most months at Tunxi due to restricted phosphorous reaction with reduced dissolved oxygen content and enhanced dilution effect. Spatial variability existed in the changes of sediment load and DP load at sub-catchment scale due to climate change. DP load tended to decrease in most sub-catchments and was the most remarkable in the RCP8.5 scenario (2020s, - 9.00~2.63%; 2030s, - 11.16~7.89%), followed by RCP2.6 (2020s, - 10.00~2.90%; 2030s, - 9.00~6.63%) and RCP4.5 (2020s, - 6.81~5.49%, 2030s, - 10.00~9.09%) scenarios. Decreasing of DP load mainly aggregated in the western and eastern mountainous regions, while it tended to increase in the northern and middle regions. This study was expected to provide insights into diffuse nutrient loss control and management in Xin'anjiang catchment, and scientific references for the implementation of water environmental protection in China.}, }
@article {pmid29189970, year = {2018}, author = {Lundgren-Kownacki, K and Kjellberg, SM and Gooch, P and Dabaieh, M and Anandh, L and Venugopal, V}, title = {Climate change-induced heat risks for migrant populations working at brick kilns in India: a transdisciplinary approach.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {3}, pages = {347-358}, pmid = {29189970}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Construction Materials ; Forecasting ; Heat Stress Disorders/*prevention &amp; control ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; India ; Industry ; Models, Theoretical ; Occupational Diseases/*prevention &amp; control ; *Occupational Exposure ; Risk ; *Transients and Migrants ; }, abstract = {During the summer of 2015, India was hit by a scorching heat wave that melted pavements in Delhi and caused thousands of deaths, mainly among the most marginalized populations. One such group facing growing heat risks from both occupational and meteorological causes are migrant brick kiln workers. This study evaluates both current heat risks and the potential future impacts of heat caused by climate change, for the people working at brick kilns in India. A case study of heat stress faced by people working at brick kilns near Chennai, India, is the anchor point around which a transdisciplinary approach was applied. Around Chennai, the situation is alarming since occupational heat exposure in the hot season from March to July is already at the upper limits of what humans can tolerate before risking serious impairment. The aim of the study was to identify new pathways for change and soft solutions by both reframing the problem and expanding the solution space being considered in order to improve the quality of life for the migrant populations at the brick kilns. Technical solutions evaluated include the use of sun-dried mud bricks and other locally "appropriate technologies" that could mitigate the worsening of climate change-induced heat. Socio-cultural solutions discussed for empowering the people who work at the brick kilns include participatory approaches such as open re-localization, and rights-based approaches including the environmental sustainability and the human rights-based approach framework. Our analysis suggests that an integrative, transdisciplinary approach could incorporate a more holistic range of technical and socio-culturally informed solutions in order to protect the health of people threatened by India's brick kiln industry.}, }
@article {pmid29186016, year = {2017}, author = {Yu, TY and Yu, TK}, title = {The Moderating Effects of Students' Personality Traits on Pro-Environmental Behavioral Intentions in Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {29186016}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; Attitude ; *Behavior ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Female ; Humans ; *Intention ; Male ; *Personality ; Social Norms ; Students/*psychology ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {This study developed a model that examined the relationship between undergraduate students' beliefs, norms and pro-environment behavioral intentions in the context of global climate change (GCC). The model was further evaluated to determine whether latent variables, such as sustainability value, environmental concern, social norms, perceived risk, pro-environmental attitude, as defined by the theory of planned behavior and value-belief-norm theory, significantly influenced students' intentions towards pro-environmental behavior. The research model was empirically tested using data collected form 275 undergraduate students. Empirical results found support for four interaction effects of personality traits and the related latent variables of environmental attitude, including sustainability value, social norms, environmental concern and perceived risk. The impact of undergraduate students' environmental attitudes was moderated by personality traits. The findings of this research offer policy makers and enterprises better understandings of undergraduate students' attitudes and behavioral intentions towards GCC and promote the visibility of this issue.}, }
@article {pmid29185420, year = {2017}, author = {van Dorn, A}, title = {Extreme weather in 2017: time to take climate change seriously.}, journal = {The Lancet. Respiratory medicine}, volume = {5}, number = {12}, pages = {934}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-2600(17)30448-4}, pmid = {29185420}, issn = {2213-2619}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; *Internationality ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid29181444, year = {2017}, author = {Kaniewski, D and Marriner, N and Ilan, D and Morhange, C and Thareani, Y and Van Campo, E}, title = {Climate change and water management in the biblical city of Dan.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {3}, number = {11}, pages = {e1700954}, pmid = {29181444}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {Global climate change has sharpened focus on the social and economic challenges associated with water deficits, particularly in regions where anthropogenic demands exceed supply. This modern condition was also experienced by the people of ancient western Asia, where chronic water shortages were accentuated by recurrent droughts. However, human societies may react to climate change, particularly desiccation, in different ways depending on specific local conditions. Focusing on the biblical site of Tel Dan (present-day Israel), we show the effects of severe precipitation decline in an environment that was well watered and fertile even in times of drought. Such local niches of prosperity became attractive targets for predation when food resources became scarce in surrounding rain-fed areas. We propose that predation forced urban populations to either flee or adopt new subsistence strategies. Predation and abandonment, even if only partial, led to the poor maintenance of water networks in and around the city. Once stagnant water surrounded the area, water-borne disease proliferated. Our study shows how climate changes can disrupt social and political structures, cause water system management to collapse, and facilitate marshland expansion.}, }
@article {pmid29178135, year = {2018}, author = {Bai, WN and Yan, PC and Zhang, BW and Woeste, KE and Lin, K and Zhang, DY}, title = {Demographically idiosyncratic responses to climate change and rapid Pleistocene diversification of the walnut genus Juglans (Juglandaceae) revealed by whole-genome sequences.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {217}, number = {4}, pages = {1726-1736}, doi = {10.1111/nph.14917}, pmid = {29178135}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Base Sequence ; *Climate Change ; Fraxinus/genetics ; *Genetic Variation ; *Genome, Plant ; Juglans/*genetics ; Markov Chains ; Phylogeny ; Population Density ; Populus/genetics ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; *Whole Genome Sequencing ; }, abstract = {Whether species demography and diversification are driven primarily by extrinsic environmental changes such as climatic oscillations in the Quaternary or by intrinsic biological interactions like coevolution between antagonists is a matter of active debate. In fact, their relative importance can be assessed by tracking past population fluctuations over considerable time periods. We applied the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent approach on the genomes of 11 temperate Juglans species to estimate trajectories of changes in effective population size (Ne) and used a Bayesian-coalescent based approach that simultaneously considers multiple genomes (G-PhoCS) to estimate divergence times between lineages. Ne curves of all study species converged 1.0 million yr ago, probably reflecting the time when the walnut genus last shared a common ancestor. This estimate was confirmed by the G-PhoCS estimates of divergence times. But all species did not react similarly to the dramatic climatic oscillations following early Pleistocene cooling, so the timing and amplitude of changes in Ne differed among species and even among conspecific lineages. The population histories of temperate walnut species were not driven by extrinsic environmental changes alone, and a key role was probably played by species-specific factors such as coevolutionary interactions with specialized pathogens.}, }
@article {pmid29176879, year = {2017}, author = {Chan, EYY and Wang, SS and Ho, JY and Huang, Z and Liu, S and Guo, C}, title = {Socio-demographic predictors of health and environmental co-benefit behaviours for climate change mitigation in urban China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {e0188661}, pmid = {29176879}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; China/epidemiology ; *Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Demography ; *Environment ; Female ; *Health ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Hong Kong/epidemiology ; Humans ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Multivariate Analysis ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This study aims to examine the patterns and socio-demographic predictors of health and environmental co-benefit behaviours that support climate change mitigation in a densely populated Asian metropolis-Hong Kong.<br><br>METHODS: A population-based, stratified and cross-sectional random digit dialling telephone survey study was conducted between January and February 2016, among the Cantonese-speaking population aged 15 and above in Hong Kong. Socio-demographic data and the self-reported practice of 10 different co-benefit behaviours were solicited. Ethics approval and participant's verbal consent were sought.<br><br>FINDINGS: The study sample consisted of 1,017 respondents (response rate: 63.6%) were comparable to the age, gender and geographical distributions of the Hong Kong population found in the latest 2011 Hong Kong Population Census. Among the co-benefit behaviours, using less packaging and disposable shopping bags were practiced in the highest frequency (70.1%). However, four behaviours were found to have never been practiced by more than half of the respondents, including bringing personal eating utensils when dining in restaurants or small eateries, showering less than five minutes, having one vegetarian meal a week, and buying more organic food. Results of multivariable logistic regression showed that frequency of practicing co-benefit behaviours were consistently associated with gender and age.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Urban residents in Hong Kong do not engage in the practice of co-benefit behaviours in a uniform way. In general, females and older people are more likely to adopt co-benefit behaviours in their daily lives. Further research to assess the knowledge and attitudes of the population towards these co-benefit behaviours will provide support to relevant climate change mitigation policies and education programmes.}, }
@article {pmid29173874, year = {2017}, author = {The Lancet Infectious Diseases, }, title = {Climate change: the role of the infectious disease community.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {17}, number = {12}, pages = {1219}, doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30645-X}, pmid = {29173874}, issn = {1474-4457}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/diagnosis/*epidemiology/therapy/transmission ; Forecasting ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Research Support as Topic/*organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid29170858, year = {2018}, author = {Leisner, CP and Wood, JC and Vaillancourt, B and Tang, Y and Douches, DS and Robin Buell, C and Winkler, JA}, title = {Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {4}, pages = {669-679}, pmid = {29170858}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {Proposal #GR15-008//Michigan State University GREEEN/ ; Award CNH 0909378//National Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Solanum tuberosum/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid29168625, year = {2018}, author = {Meester, L and Stoks, R and Brans, KI}, title = {Genetic adaptation as a biological buffer against climate change: Potential and limitations.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {372-391}, pmid = {29168625}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*genetics ; Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Biota ; *Climate Change ; Extinction, Biological ; Genetic Variation ; }, abstract = {Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems and their biota, resulting in range shifts, novel interactions, food web alterations, changed intensities of host-parasite interactions, and extinctions. An increasing number of studies have documented evolutionary changes in traits such as phenology and thermal tolerance. In this opinion paper, we argue that, while evolutionary responses have the potential to provide a buffer against extinctions or range shifts, a number of constraints and complexities blur this simple prediction. First, there are limits to evolutionary potential both in terms of genetic variation and demographic effects, and these limits differ strongly among taxa and populations. Second, there can be costs associated with genetic adaptation, such as a reduced evolutionary potential towards other (human-induced) environmental stressors or direct fitness costs due to tradeoffs. Third, the differential capacity of taxa to genetically respond to climate change results in novel interactions because different organism groups respond to a different degree with local compared to regional (dispersal and range shift) responses. These complexities result in additional changes in the selection pressures on populations. We conclude that evolution can provide an initial buffer against climate change for some taxa and populations but does not guarantee their survival. It does not necessarily result in reduced extinction risks across the range of taxa in a region or continent. Yet, considering evolution is crucial, as it is likely to strongly change how biota will respond to climate change and will impact which taxa will be the winners or losers at the local, metacommunity and regional scales.}, }
@article {pmid29168615, year = {2018}, author = {Boonstra, R and Boutin, S and Jung, TS and Krebs, CJ and Taylor, S}, title = {Impact of rewilding, species introductions and climate change on the structure and function of the Yukon boreal forest ecosystem.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {123-138}, pmid = {29168615}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Demography ; Environmental Monitoring ; Mammals/*physiology ; *Taiga ; Time Factors ; Yukon Territory ; }, abstract = {Community and ecosystem changes are happening in the pristine boreal forest ecosystem of the Yukon for 2 reasons. First, climate change is affecting the abiotic environment (temperature, rainfall and growing season) and driving changes in plant productivity and predator-prey interactions. Second, simultaneously change is occurring because of mammal species reintroductions and rewilding. The key ecological question is the impact these faunal changes will have on trophic dynamics. Primary productivity in the boreal forest is increasing because of climatic warming, but plant species composition is unlikely to change significantly during the next 50-100 years. The 9-10-year population cycle of snowshoe hares will persist but could be reduced in amplitude if winter weather increases predator hunting efficiency. Small rodents have increased in abundance because of increased vegetation growth. Arctic ground squirrels have disappeared from the forest because of increased predator hunting efficiency associated with shrub growth. Reintroductions have occurred for 2 reasons: human reintroductions of large ungulates and natural recolonization of mammals and birds extending their geographic ranges. The deliberate rewilding of wood bison (Bison bison) and elk (Cervus canadensis) has changed the trophic structure of this boreal ecosystem very little. The natural range expansion of mountain lions (Puma concolor), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and American marten (Martes americana) should have few ecosystem effects. Understanding potential changes will require long-term monitoring studies and experiments on a scale we rarely deem possible. Ecosystems affected by climate change, species reintroductions and human alteration of habitats cannot remain stable and changes will be critically dependent on food web interactions.}, }
@article {pmid29167983, year = {2018}, author = {Bastille-Rousseau, G and Schaefer, JA and Peers, MJL and Ellington, EH and Mumma, MA and Rayl, ND and Mahoney, SP and Murray, DL}, title = {Climate change can alter predator-prey dynamics and population viability of prey.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {186}, number = {1}, pages = {141-150}, pmid = {29167983}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {For many organisms, climate change can directly drive population declines, but it is less clear how such variation may influence populations indirectly through modified biotic interactions. For instance, how will climate change alter complex, multi-species relationships that are modulated by climatic variation and that underlie ecosystem-level processes? Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a keystone species in Newfoundland, Canada, provides a useful model for unravelling potential and complex long-term implications of climate change on biotic interactions and population change. We measured cause-specific caribou calf predation (1990-2013) in Newfoundland relative to seasonal weather patterns. We show that black bear (Ursus americanus) predation is facilitated by time-lagged higher summer growing degree days, whereas coyote (Canis latrans) predation increases with current precipitation and winter temperature. Based on future climate forecasts for the region, we illustrate that, through time, coyote predation on caribou calves could become increasingly important, whereas the influence of black bear would remain unchanged. From these predictions, demographic projections for caribou suggest long-term population limitation specifically through indirect effects of climate change on calf predation rates by coyotes. While our work assumes limited impact of climate change on other processes, it illustrates the range of impact that climate change can have on predator-prey interactions. We conclude that future efforts to predict potential effects of climate change on populations and ecosystems should include assessment of both direct and indirect effects, including climate-predator interactions.}, }
@article {pmid29167452, year = {2017}, author = {Aben, RCH and Barros, N and van Donk, E and Frenken, T and Hilt, S and Kazanjian, G and Lamers, LPM and Peeters, ETHM and Roelofs, JGM and de Senerpont Domis, LN and Stephan, S and Velthuis, M and Van de Waal, DB and Wik, M and Thornton, BF and Wilkinson, J and DelSontro, T and Kosten, S}, title = {Cross continental increase in methane ebullition under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {1682}, pmid = {29167452}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Methane (CH4) strongly contributes to observed global warming. As natural CH4 emissions mainly originate from wet ecosystems, it is important to unravel how climate change may affect these emissions. This is especially true for ebullition (bubble flux from sediments), a pathway that has long been underestimated but generally dominates emissions. Here we show a remarkably strong relationship between CH4 ebullition and temperature across a wide range of freshwater ecosystems on different continents using multi-seasonal CH4 ebullition data from the literature. As these temperature-ebullition relationships may have been affected by seasonal variation in organic matter availability, we also conducted a controlled year-round mesocosm experiment. Here 4 °C warming led to 51% higher total annual CH4 ebullition, while diffusion was not affected. Our combined findings suggest that global warming will strongly enhance freshwater CH4 emissions through a disproportional increase in ebullition (6-20% per 1 °C increase), contributing to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid29167361, year = {2017}, author = {Zhang, L and Takahashi, D and Hartvig, M and Andersen, KH}, title = {Food-web dynamics under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {284}, number = {1867}, pages = {}, pmid = {29167361}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes. We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our simulations illustrate how isolated communities deteriorate as populations go extinct when the environment moves outside the species' thermal niches. High-trophic-level species are most vulnerable, while the ecosystem function of lower trophic levels is less impacted. Open communities can compensate for the loss of ecosystem function by invasions of new species. Individual populations show complex responses largely uncorrelated with the direct impact of temperature change on physiology. Such complex responses are particularly evident during extinction and invasion events of other species, where climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted.}, }
@article {pmid29167360, year = {2017}, author = {Halupka, L and Halupka, K}, title = {The effect of climate change on the duration of avian breeding seasons: a meta-analysis.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {284}, number = {1867}, pages = {}, pmid = {29167360}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Nesting Behavior ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Many bird species are advancing the timing of their egg-laying in response to a warming climate. Little is known, however, of whether this advancement affects the respective length of the breeding seasons. A meta-analysis of 65 long-term studies of 54 species from the Northern Hemisphere has revealed that within the last 45 years an average population has lengthened the season by 1.4 days per decade, which was independent from changes in mean laying dates. Multi-brooded birds have prolonged their seasons by 4 days per decade, while single-brooded have shortened by 2 days. Changes in season lengths covaried with local climate changes: warming was correlated with prolonged seasons in multi-brooded species, but not in single-brooders. This might be a result of higher ecological flexibility of multi-brooded birds, whereas single brooders may have problems with synchronizing their reproduction with the peak of food resources. Sedentary species and short-distance migrants prolonged their breeding seasons more than long-distance migrants, which probably cannot track conditions at their breeding grounds. We conclude that as long as climate warming continues without major changes in ecological conditions, multi-brooded or sedentary species will probably increase their reproductive output, while the opposite effect may occur in single-brooded or migratory birds.}, }
@article {pmid29166165, year = {2017}, author = {Nilsson-Örtman, V and Johansson, F}, title = {The Rate of Seasonal Changes in Temperature Alters Acclimation of Performance under Climate Change.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {190}, number = {6}, pages = {743-761}, doi = {10.1086/694412}, pmid = {29166165}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Larva/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Models, Biological ; Odonata/*physiology ; Oviposition ; *Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {How the ability to acclimate will impact individual performance and ecological interactions under climate change remains poorly understood. Theory predicts that the benefit an organism can gain from acclimating depends on the rate at which temperatures change relative to the time it takes to induce beneficial acclimation. Here, we present a conceptual model showing how slower seasonal changes under climate change can alter species' relative performance when they differ in acclimation rate and magnitude. To test predictions from theory, we performed a microcosm experiment where we reared a mid- and a high-latitude damselfly species alone or together under the rapid seasonality currently experienced at 62°N and the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change and measured larval growth and survival. To separate acclimation effects from fixed thermal responses, we simulated growth trajectories based on species' growth rates at constant temperatures and quantified how much and how fast species needed to acclimate to match the observed growth trajectories. Consistent with our predictions, the results showed that the midlatitude species had a greater capacity for acclimation than the high-latitude species. Furthermore, since acclimation occurred at a slower rate than seasonal temperature changes, the midlatitude species had a small growth advantage over the high-latitude species under the current seasonality but a greater growth advantage under the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change. In addition, the two species did not differ in survival under the current seasonality, but the midlatitude species had higher survival under the predicted climate change scenario, possibly because rates of cannibalism were lower when smaller heterospecifics were present. These findings highlight the need to incorporate acclimation rates in ecological models.}, }
@article {pmid29165848, year = {2018}, author = {Attard, CRM and Brauer, CJ and Sandoval-Castillo, J and Faulks, LK and Unmack, PJ and Gilligan, DM and Beheregaray, LB}, title = {Ecological disturbance influences adaptive divergence despite high gene flow in golden perch (Macquaria ambigua): Implications for management and resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {196-215}, doi = {10.1111/mec.14438}, pmid = {29165848}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Animals ; Australia ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Cluster Analysis ; *Gene Flow ; Gene Frequency/genetics ; Genetic Loci ; Geography ; Perches/*genetics/*physiology ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide/genetics ; Principal Component Analysis ; }, abstract = {Populations that are adaptively divergent but maintain high gene flow may have greater resilience to environmental change as gene flow allows the spread of alleles that have already been tested elsewhere. In addition, populations naturally subjected to ecological disturbance may already hold resilience to future environmental change. Confirming this necessitates ecological genomic studies of high dispersal, generalist species. Here we perform one such study on golden perch (Macquaria ambigua) in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia, using a genome-wide SNP data set. The MDB spans across arid to wet and temperate to subtropical environments, with low to high ecological disturbance in the form of low to high hydrological variability. We found high gene flow across the basin and three populations with low neutral differentiation. Genotype-environment association analyses detected adaptive divergence predominantly linked to an arid region with highly variable riverine flow, and candidate loci included functions related to fat storage, stress and molecular or tissue repair. The high connectivity of golden perch in the MDB will likely allow locally adaptive traits in its most arid and hydrologically variable environment to spread and be selected in localities that are predicted to become arid and hydrologically variable in future climates. High connectivity in golden perch is likely due to their generalist life history and efforts of fisheries management. Our study adds to growing evidence of adaptation in the face of gene flow and highlights the importance of considering ecological disturbance and adaptive divergence in biodiversity management.}, }
@article {pmid29160927, year = {2018}, author = {Boone, RB and Conant, RT and Sircely, J and Thornton, PK and Herrero, M}, title = {Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {1382-1393}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13995}, pmid = {29160927}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Livestock ; }, abstract = {Rangelands are Earth's dominant land cover and are important providers of ecosystem services. Reliance on rangelands is projected to grow, thus understanding the sensitivity of rangelands to future climates is essential. We used a new ecosystem model of moderate complexity that allows, for the first time, to quantify global changes expected in rangelands under future climates. The mean global annual net primary production (NPP) may decline by 10 g C m[-2] year[-1] in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but herbaceous NPP is projected to increase slightly (i.e., average of 3 g C m[-2] year[-1]). Responses vary substantially from place-to-place, with large increases in annual productivity projected in northern regions (e.g., a 21% increase in productivity in the US and Canada) and large declines in western Africa (-46% in sub-Saharan western Africa) and Australia (-17%). Soil organic carbon is projected to increase in Australia (9%), the Middle East (14%), and central Asia (16%) and decline in many African savannas (e.g., -18% in sub-Saharan western Africa). Livestock are projected to decline 7.5 to 9.6%, an economic loss of from $9.7 to $12.6 billion. Our results suggest that forage production in Africa is sensitive to changes in climate, which will have substantial impacts on the livelihoods of the more than 180 million people who raise livestock on those rangelands. Our approach and the simulation tool presented here offer considerable potential for forecasting future conditions, highlight regions of concern, and support analyses where costs and benefits of adaptations and policies may be quantified. Otherwise, the technical options and policy and enabling environment that are needed to facilitate widespread adaptation may be very difficult to elucidate.}, }
@article {pmid29158763, year = {2017}, author = {Bayram, H}, title = {Effect of Global Climate Change-Related Factors on COPD Morbidity.}, journal = {Tanaffos}, volume = {16}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S29}, pmid = {29158763}, issn = {1735-0344}, }
@article {pmid29158760, year = {2017}, author = {Bayram, H}, title = {Effect of Global Climate Change-Related Factors on COPD Morbidity.}, journal = {Tanaffos}, volume = {16}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S24}, pmid = {29158760}, issn = {1735-0344}, }
@article {pmid29158460, year = {2017}, author = {Vogel, L}, title = {Climate change is already making us sick.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {189}, number = {46}, pages = {E1428-E1429}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-5527}, pmid = {29158460}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disasters/economics ; Food Supply ; *Global Health ; Health Policy ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid29155862, year = {2017}, author = {Nateghi, R and Mukherjee, S}, title = {A multi-paradigm framework to assess the impacts of climate change on end-use energy demand.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {e0188033}, pmid = {29155862}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Air Conditioning/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate Change/*economics ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Energy Resources/trends ; Energy-Generating Resources/*economics ; Heating/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Indiana ; *Models, Statistical ; Renewable Energy/*economics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Projecting the long-term trends in energy demand is an increasingly complex endeavor due to the uncertain emerging changes in factors such as climate and policy. The existing energy-economy paradigms used to characterize the long-term trends in the energy sector do not adequately account for climate variability and change. In this paper, we propose a multi-paradigm framework for estimating the climate sensitivity of end-use energy demand that can easily be integrated with the existing energy-economy models. To illustrate the applicability of our proposed framework, we used the energy demand and climate data in the state of Indiana to train a Bayesian predictive model. We then leveraged the end-use demand trends as well as downscaled future climate scenarios to generate probabilistic estimates of the future end-use demand for space cooling, space heating and water heating, at the individual household and building level, in the residential and commercial sectors. Our results indicated that the residential load is much more sensitive to climate variability and change than the commercial load. Moreover, since the largest fraction of the residential energy demand in Indiana is attributed to heating, future warming scenarios could lead to reduced end-use demand due to lower space heating and water heating needs. In the commercial sector, the overall energy demand is expected to increase under the future warming scenarios. This is because the increased cooling load during hotter summer months will likely outpace the reduced heating load during the more temperate winter months.}, }
@article {pmid29152181, year = {2017}, author = {Steen, V and Sofaer, HR and Skagen, SK and Ray, AJ and Noon, BR}, title = {Projecting species' vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {21}, pages = {8841-8851}, pmid = {29152181}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.}, }
@article {pmid29151575, year = {2017}, author = {Moore, FC and Baldos, U and Hertel, T and Diaz, D}, title = {New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {1607}, pmid = {29151575}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics ; Carbon/analysis/*economics ; Climate Change/*economics ; Crops, Agricultural/economics/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Despite substantial advances in climate change impact research in recent years, the scientific basis for damage functions in economic models used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC) is either undocumented, difficult to trace, or based on a small number of dated studies. Here we present new damage functions based on the current scientific literature and introduce these into an integrated assessment model (IAM) in order to estimate a new SCC. We focus on the agricultural sector, use two methods for determining the yield impacts of warming, and the GTAP CGE model to calculate the economic consequences of yield shocks. These new damage functions reveal far more adverse agricultural impacts than currently represented in IAMs. Impacts in the agriculture increase from net benefits of $2.7 ton[-1] CO2 to net costs of $8.5 ton[-1], leading the total SCC to more than double.}, }
@article {pmid29149298, year = {2018}, author = {Semenza, JC and Suk, JE}, title = {Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology letters}, volume = {365}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {29149298}, issn = {1574-6968}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Culicidae ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Europe ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Insect Vectors ; Psychodidae ; Ticks ; }, abstract = {Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction.}, }
@article {pmid29148655, year = {2017}, author = {Weems, C and Subramaniam, PR}, title = {Feframing Climate Change for Environmental Health.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health}, volume = {79}, number = {8}, pages = {24-27}, pmid = {29148655}, issn = {0022-0892}, mesh = {Behavior ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; Politics ; *Public Health ; *Public Opinion ; United States ; }, abstract = {Repeated warnings by the scientific community on the dire consequences of climate change through global warming to the ecology and sustenance of our planet have not been give appropriate attention by the U.S. public. Research has shown that climate change is responsible for catastrophic weather occurrences--such as floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, and heat waves--resulting in environmental and public health issues. The purpose of this report is to examine factors influencing public views on climate change. Theoretical and political perspectives are examined to unpack opinions held by the public in the U.S. on climate change. The Health Belief Model is used as an example to showcase the efficacy of an individual behavior change program in providing the synergy to understand climate change at the microlevel. The concept of reframing is discussed as a strategy to alter how the public views climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29146578, year = {2017}, author = {Sen, B and Dhimal, M and Latheef, AT and Ghosh, U}, title = {Climate change: health effects and response in South Asia.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {359}, number = {}, pages = {j5117}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.j5117}, pmid = {29146578}, issn = {1756-1833}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern ; *Climate Change ; Community-Institutional Relations ; Delivery of Health Care/*organization &amp; administration ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Environmental Pollutants/*adverse effects ; Health Communication ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Heat Stress Disorders/*therapy ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Patient Care Team ; Policy Making ; Population Surveillance ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, }
@article {pmid29145461, year = {2017}, author = {Vázquez-Rowe, I and Larrea-Gallegos, G and Villanueva-Rey, P and Gilardino, A}, title = {Climate change mitigation opportunities based on carbon footprint estimates of dietary patterns in Peru.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {e0188182}, pmid = {29145461}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; *Diet ; Humans ; Peru ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Food consumption accounts for an important proportion of the world GHG emissions per capita. Previous studies have delved into the nature of dietary patterns, showing that GHG reductions can be achieved in diets if certain foods are consumed rather than other, more GHG intensive products. For instance, vegetarian and low-meat diets have proved to be less carbon intensive than diets that are based on ruminant meat. These environmental patterns, increasingly analyzed in developed nations, are yet to be assessed in countries liked Peru where food purchase represents a relatively high percentage of the average household expenditure, ranging from 38% to 51% of the same. Therefore, food consumption can be identified as a potential way to reduce GHG emissions in Peru. However, the Peruvian government lacks a specific strategy to mitigate emissions in this sector, despite the recent ratification of the Paris Accord. In view of this, the main objective of this study is to analyze the environmental impacts of a set of 47 Peruvian food diet profiles, including geographical and socioeconomic scenarios. In order to do this, Life Cycle Assessment was used as the methodological framework to obtain the overall impacts of the components in the dietary patterns observed and primary data linked to the composition of diets were collected from the Peruvian National Institute for Statistics (INEI). Life cycle inventories for the different products that are part of the Peruvian diet were obtained from a set of previous scientific articles and reports regarding food production. Results were computed using the IPCC 2013 assessment method to estimate GHG emissions. Despite variations in GHG emissions from a geographical perspective, no significant differences were observed between cities located in the three Peruvian natural regions (i.e., coast, Andes and Amazon basin). In contrast, there appears to be a strong, positive correlation between GHG emissions and social expenditure or academic status. When compared to GHG emissions computed in the literature for developed nations, where the average caloric intake is substantially higher, diet-related emissions in Peru were in the low range. Our results could be used as a baseline for policy support to align nutritional and health policies in Peru with the need to reduce the environmental impacts linked to food production.}, }
@article {pmid29144432, year = {2017}, author = {Sheffield, PE and Uijttewaal, SAM and Stewart, J and Galvez, MP}, title = {Climate Change and Schools: Environmental Hazards and Resiliency.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {29144432}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {P01 ES009584/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; M01 RR000071/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; UL1 TR001433/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; K01 ES012645/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; U01 ES012771/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES023515/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; K23 ES024127/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; U01 ES019454/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; L40 ES017745/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; U01 ES019435/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; K07 CA093447/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Disasters ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; *Schools ; United States ; }, abstract = {The changing climate is creating additional challenges in maintaining a healthy school environment in the United States (U.S.) where over 50 million people, mostly children, spend approximately a third of their waking hours. Chronic low prioritization of funds and resources to support environmental health in schools and lack of clear regulatory oversight in the U.S. undergird the new risks from climate change. We illustrate the extent of risk and the variation in vulnerability by geographic region, in the context of sparse systematically collected and comparable data particularly about school infrastructure. Additionally, we frame different resilience building initiatives, focusing on interventions that target root causes, or social determinants of health. Disaster response and recovery are also framed as resilience building efforts. Examples from U.S. Federal Region 2 (New Jersey, New York, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands) and nationally are used to illustrate these concepts. We conclude that better surveillance, more research, and increased federal and state oversight of environmental factors in schools (specific to climate risks) is necessary, as exposures result in short- and long term negative health effects and climate change risks will increase over time.}, }
@article {pmid29143493, year = {2018}, author = {Carlo, MA and Riddell, EA and Levy, O and Sears, MW}, title = {Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {104-116}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12877}, pmid = {29143493}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Life Cycle Stages ; *Lizards ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship.}, }
@article {pmid29136659, year = {2017}, author = {Kaky, E and Gilbert, F}, title = {Predicting the distributions of Egypt's medicinal plants and their potential shifts under future climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {e0187714}, pmid = {29136659}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Egypt ; Forecasting ; Plants, Medicinal/*classification ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most difficult of challenges to conserving biodiversity, especially for countries with few data on the distributions of their taxa. Species distribution modelling is a modern approach to the assessment of the potential effects of climate change on biodiversity, with the great advantage of being robust to small amounts of data. Taking advantage of a recently validated dataset, we use the medicinal plants of Egypt to identify hotspots of diversity now and in the future by predicting the effect of climate change on the pattern of species richness using species distribution modelling. Then we assess how Egypt's current Protected Area network is likely to perform in protecting plants under climate change. The patterns of species richness show that in most cases the A2a 'business as usual' scenario was more harmful than the B2a 'moderate mitigation' scenario. Predicted species richness inside Protected Areas was higher than outside under all scenarios, indicating that Egypt's PAs are well placed to help conserve medicinal plants.}, }
@article {pmid29133863, year = {2017}, author = {Haustein, K and Allen, MR and Forster, PM and Otto, FEL and Mitchell, DM and Matthews, HD and Frame, DJ}, title = {A real-time Global Warming Index.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {15417}, pmid = {29133863}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.}, }
@article {pmid29133790, year = {2017}, author = {Pretzsch, H and Biber, P and Uhl, E and Dahlhausen, J and Schütze, G and Perkins, D and Rötzer, T and Caldentey, J and Koike, T and Con, TV and Chavanne, A and Toit, BD and Foster, K and Lefer, B}, title = {Climate change accelerates growth of urban trees in metropolises worldwide.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {15403}, pmid = {29133790}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Cities ; *City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Time Factors ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Despite the importance of urban trees, their growth reaction to climate change and to the urban heat island effect has not yet been investigated with an international scope. While we are well informed about forest growth under recent conditions, it is unclear if this knowledge can be simply transferred to urban environments. Based on tree ring analyses in ten metropolises worldwide, we show that, in general, urban trees have undergone accelerated growth since the 1960s. In addition, urban trees tend to grow more quickly than their counterparts in the rural surroundings. However, our analysis shows that climate change seems to enhance the growth of rural trees more than that of urban trees. The benefits of growing in an urban environment seem to outweigh known negative effects, however, accelerated growth may also mean more rapid ageing and shortened lifetime. Thus, city planners should adapt to the changed dynamics in order to secure the ecosystem services provided by urban trees.}, }
@article {pmid29131789, year = {2017}, author = {Robbins, A}, title = {What's missing in climate change discussions?.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {390}, number = {10103}, pages = {1641}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32151-7}, pmid = {29131789}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Air Conditioning ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Gases/*adverse effects ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; *Politics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid29129287, year = {2017}, author = {Murrell, EG}, title = {Can agricultural practices that mitigate or improve crop resilience to climate change also manage crop pests?.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {23}, number = {}, pages = {81-88}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2017.07.008}, pmid = {29129287}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropods ; *Climate Change ; Crop Production/*methods ; Pest Control/*methods ; Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {Sustainable agricultural practices that are promoted for mitigating climate change have the potential to also improve pest management. The author highlights recent studies that demonstrate effects of climate-mitigating agricultural practices on arthropod pests and predators in agronomic cropping systems. Promising practices for suppressing pests and/or improving biological control include: plant species diversification, especially via the addition of perennial species; cover cropping; tillage practices that retain crop residue; application of organic fertilizers such as compost and manure; and water management practices such as irrigation and sustainable rice intensification. More research is needed that explicitly tests pest and predator responses to agricultural practices under climate change conditions, if these practices are to be effectively promoted and implemented as agricultural pest management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid29129279, year = {2017}, author = {Laws, AN}, title = {Climate change effects on predator-prey interactions.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {23}, number = {}, pages = {28-34}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2017.06.010}, pmid = {29129279}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Insecta/*physiology ; Plants ; *Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {Predator-prey interactions can be very important to community structure and function. A growing body of research demonstrates how climate change can modify these species interactions. Climate change can modify predator-prey interactions by affecting species characteristics, and by modifying consumptive and/or non-consumptive predator effects. Current work examines how climate change and predation risk can combine to influence herbivore stoichiometry and feeding ecology. Other recent advances show how climate change can affect chemical signaling of plants and insects, as well as how pollution and other components of the environmental context can modify predator-prey interactions.}, }
@article {pmid29127793, year = {2018}, author = {Castex, V and Beniston, M and Calanca, P and Fleury, D and Moreau, J}, title = {Pest management under climate change: The importance of understanding tritrophic relations.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {616-617}, number = {}, pages = {397-407}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.027}, pmid = {29127793}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Herbivory ; Humidity ; Hymenoptera/physiology ; Insecta ; Lepidoptera/parasitology ; *Pest Control ; Temperature ; Vitis ; }, abstract = {Plants and insects depend on climatic factors (temperature, solar radiation, precipitations, relative humidity and CO2) for their development. Current knowledge suggests that climate change can alter plants and insects development and affect their interactions. Shifts in tritrophic relations are of particular concern for Integrated Pest Management (IPM), because responses at the highest trophic level (natural enemies) are highly sensitive to warmer temperature. It is expected that natural enemies could benefit from better conditions for their development in northern latitudes and IPM could be facilitated by a longer period of overlap. This may not be the case in southern latitudes, where climate could become too warm. Adapting IPM to future climatic conditions requires therefore understanding of changes that occur at the various levels and their linkages. The aim of this review is to assess the current state of knowledge and highlights the gaps in the existing literature concerning how climate change can affect tritrophic relations. Because of the economic importance of wine production, the interactions between grapevine, Vitis vinifera (1st), Lobesia botrana (2nd) and Trichogramma spp., (3rd), an egg parasitoid of Lobesia botrana, are considered as a case study for addressing specific issues. In addition, we discuss models that could be applied in order quantify alterations in the synchrony or asynchrony patterns but also the shifts in the timing and spatial distribution of hosts, pests and their natural enemies.}, }
@article {pmid29126053, year = {2018}, author = {Shi, H and Chen, J and Wang, K and Niu, J}, title = {A new method and a new index for identifying socioeconomic drought events under climate change: A case study of the East River basin in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {616-617}, number = {}, pages = {363-375}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.321}, pmid = {29126053}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Drought is a complex natural hazard that may have destructive damages on societal properties and even lives. Generally, socioeconomic drought occurs when water resources systems cannot meet water demand, mainly due to a weather-related shortfall in water supply. This study aims to propose a new method, a heuristic method, and a new index, the socioeconomic drought index (SEDI), for identifying and evaluating socioeconomic drought events on different severity levels (i.e., slight, moderate, severe, and extreme) in the context of climate change. First, the minimum in-stream water requirement (MWR) is determined through synthetically evaluating the requirements of water quality, ecology, navigation, and water supply. Second, according to the monthly water deficit calculated as the monthly streamflow data minus the MWR, the drought month can be identified. Third, according to the cumulative water deficit calculated from the monthly water deficit, drought duration (i.e., the number of continuous drought months) and water shortage (i.e., the largest cumulative water deficit during the drought period) can be detected. Fourth, the SEDI value of each socioeconomic drought event can be calculated through integrating the impacts of water shortage and drought duration. To evaluate the applicability of the new method and new index, this study examines the drought events in the East River basin in South China, and the impact of a multi-year reservoir (i.e., the Xinfengjiang Reservoir) in this basin on drought analysis is also investigated. The historical and future streamflow of this basin is simulated using a hydrologic model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. For historical and future drought analysis, the proposed new method and index are feasible to identify socioeconomic drought events. The results show that a number of socioeconomic drought events (including some extreme ones) may occur in future, and the appropriate reservoir operation can significantly ease such situation.}, }
@article {pmid29122837, year = {2017}, author = {Mora, C and Counsell, CWW and Bielecki, CR and Louis, LV}, title = {Twenty-Seven Ways a Heat Wave Can Kill You: Deadly Heat in the Era of Climate Change.}, journal = {Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.117.004233}, pmid = {29122837}, issn = {1941-7705}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation ; Cause of Death ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Heat Stress Disorders/diagnosis/*mortality/physiopathology/therapy ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Prognosis ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid29122780, year = {2017}, author = {Yu, AT and Sarfaty, M}, title = {Countdown tracks progress on health effects of climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {359}, number = {}, pages = {j5159}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.j5159}, pmid = {29122780}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Health Policy ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid29122751, year = {2017}, author = {Hughes, F and Hodkinson, J and Montgomery, H}, title = {Tropical cyclones and public health: how climate change is driving increasingly extreme weather-an essay by Fintan Hughes, Jack Hodkinson, and Hugh Montgomery.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {359}, number = {}, pages = {j4908}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.j4908}, pmid = {29122751}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid29122346, year = {2018}, author = {Wan, JZ and Wang, CJ and Qu, H and Liu, R and Zhang, ZX}, title = {Vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {621}, number = {}, pages = {1633-1641}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.065}, pmid = {29122346}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Plants ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {China has large areas of forest vegetation that are critical to biodiversity and carbon storage. It is important to assess vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China because it may change the distributions and species compositions of forest vegetation. Based on the equilibrium assumption of forest communities across different spatial and temporal scales, we used species distribution modelling coupled with endemics-area relationship to assess the vulnerability of 204 forest communities across 16 vegetation types under different climate change scenarios in China. By mapping the vulnerability of forest vegetation to climate change, we determined that 78.9% and 61.8% of forest vegetation should be relatively stable in the low and high concentration scenarios, respectively. There were large vulnerable areas of forest vegetation under anthropogenic climate change in northeastern and southwestern China. The vegetation of subtropical mixed broadleaf evergreen and deciduous forest, cold-temperate and temperate mountains needleleaf forest, and temperate mixed needleleaf and broadleaf deciduous forest types were the most vulnerable under climate change. Furthermore, the vulnerability of forest vegetation may increase due to high greenhouse gas concentrations. Given our estimates of forest vegetation vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change, it is critical that we ensure long-term monitoring of forest vegetation responses to future climate change to assess our projections against observations. We need to better integrate projected changes of temperature and precipitation into climate-adaptive conservation strategies for forest vegetation in China.}, }
@article {pmid29122059, year = {2017}, author = {Rhodes, CJ}, title = {US withdrawal from the COP21 Paris Climate Change Agreement, and its possible implications.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {100}, number = {4}, pages = {411-419}, pmid = {29122059}, issn = {0036-8504}, }
@article {pmid29121580, year = {2018}, author = {Turk, JK and Reay, DS and Haszeldine, RS}, title = {Gas-fired power in the UK: Bridging supply gaps and implications of domestic shale gas exploitation for UK climate change targets.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {616-617}, number = {}, pages = {318-325}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.007}, pmid = {29121580}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {There is a projected shortcoming in the fourth carbon budget of 7.5%. This shortfall may be increased if the UK pursues a domestic shale gas industry to offset projected decreases in traditional gas supply. Here we estimate that, if the project domestic gas supply gap for power generation were to be met by UK shale gas with low fugitive emissions (0.08%), an additional 20.4MtCO2e[1] would need to be accommodated during carbon budget periods 3-6. We find that a modest fugitive emissions rate (1%) for UK shale gas would increase global emissions compared to importing an equal quantity of Qatari liquefied natural gas. Additionally, we estimate that natural gas electricity generation would emit 420-466MtCO2e (460 central estimate) during the same time period within the traded EU emissions cap. We conclude that domestic shale gas production with even a modest 1% fugitive emissions rate would risk exceedance of UK carbon budgets. We also highlight that, under the current production-based greenhouse gas accounting system, the UK is incentivized to import natural gas rather than produce it domestically.}, }
@article {pmid29120513, year = {2018}, author = {Lefevre, S and McKenzie, DJ and Nilsson, GE}, title = {In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {553-556}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13978}, pmid = {29120513}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Fishes ; Forecasting ; Gills ; *Global Warming ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung () provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W∞). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, dG . Here we find that changing both dG and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W∞ is unlikely to be explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world.}, }
@article {pmid29118777, year = {2017}, author = {Chedraoui, S and Abi-Rizk, A and El-Beyrouthy, M and Chalak, L and Ouaini, N and Rajjou, L}, title = {Capparis spinosa L. in A Systematic Review: A Xerophilous Species of Multi Values and Promising Potentialities for Agrosystems under the Threat of Global Warming.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {1845}, pmid = {29118777}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Caper (Capparis spinosa L.) is a xerophytic shrub with a remarkable adaptability to harsh environments. This plant species is of great interest for its medicinal/pharmacological properties and its culinary uses. Its phytochemical importance relies on many bioactive components present in different organs and its cultivation can be of considerable economic value. Moreover, taxonomic identification of C. spinosa L. has been difficult due to its wide heterogeneity, and many authors fell into confusion due to the scarcity of genetic studies. The present review summarizes information concerning C. spinosa L. including agronomic performance, botanical description, taxonomical approaches, traditional pharmacological uses, phytochemical evaluation and genetic studies. This knowledge represents an important tool for further research studies and agronomic development on this indigenous species with respect to the emerging climatic change in the Eastern Mediterranean countries. Indeed, this world region is particularly under the threat of global warming and it appears necessary to rethink agricultural systems to adapt them to current and futures challenging environmental conditions. Capparis spinosa L. could be a part of this approach. So, this review presents a state of the art considering caper as a potential interesting crop under arid or semi-arid regions (such as Eastern Mediterranean countries) within the climate change context. The aim is to raise awareness in the scientific community (geneticists, physiologists, ecophysiologists, agronomists, …) about the caper strengths and interest to the development of this shrub as a crop.}, }
@article {pmid29118140, year = {2017}, author = {Klinger, DH and Levin, SA and Watson, JR}, title = {Correction to 'The growth of finfish in global open-ocean aquaculture under climate change'.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {284}, number = {1866}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2017.2256}, pmid = {29118140}, issn = {1471-2954}, }
@article {pmid29118133, year = {2017}, author = {Wegge, P and Rolstad, J}, title = {Climate change and bird reproduction: warmer springs benefit breeding success in boreal forest grouse.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {284}, number = {1866}, pages = {}, pmid = {29118133}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Galliformes/*physiology ; Global Warming ; Norway ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Taiga ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming is predicted to adversely affect the reproduction of birds, especially in northern latitudes. A recent study in Finland inferred that declining populations of black grouse, Tetrao tetrix, could be attributed to advancement of the time of mating and chicks hatching too early-supporting the mismatch hypothesis. Here, we examine the breeding success of sympatric capercaillie, T. urogallus, and black grouse over a 38-year period in southeast Norway. Breeding season temperatures increased, being most pronounced in April. Although the onset of spring advanced nearly three weeks, the peak of mating advanced only 4-5 days. In contrast to the result of the Finnish study, breeding success increased markedly in both species (capercaillie: 62%, black grouse: 38%). Both brood frequency and brood size increased during the study period, but significantly so only for brood frequency in capercaillie. Whereas the frequency of capercaillie broods was positively affected by rising temperatures, especially during the pre-hatching period, this was not the case in black grouse. Brood size, on the other hand, increased with increasing post-hatching temperatures in both species. Contrary to the prediction that global warming will adversely affect reproduction in boreal forest grouse, our study shows that breeding success was enhanced in warmer springs.}, }
@article {pmid29116832, year = {2017}, author = {Heckman, CJ}, title = {Public Parks and Shady Areas in Times of Climate Change, Urban Sprawl, and Obesity.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {107}, number = {12}, pages = {1856-1858}, pmid = {29116832}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Obesity ; Recreation ; }, }
@article {pmid29115230, year = {2017}, author = {The Lancet, }, title = {Counting down to climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {390}, number = {10107}, pages = {2016}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32809-X}, pmid = {29115230}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Needs Assessment ; Politics ; Risk Assessment ; }, }
@article {pmid29112781, year = {2018}, author = {Alexander, JM and Chalmandrier, L and Lenoir, J and Burgess, TI and Essl, F and Haider, S and Kueffer, C and McDougall, K and Milbau, A and Nuñez, MA and Pauchard, A and Rabitsch, W and Rew, LJ and Sanders, NJ and Pellissier, L}, title = {Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {563-579}, pmid = {29112781}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {678841/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Plants/*classification ; }, abstract = {Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.}, }
@article {pmid29107552, year = {2017}, author = {Eronen, JT and Zohdy, S and Evans, AR and Tecot, SR and Wright, PC and Jernvall, J}, title = {Feeding Ecology and Morphology Make a Bamboo Specialist Vulnerable to Climate Change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {27}, number = {21}, pages = {3384-3389.e2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2017.09.050}, pmid = {29107552}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Dentition ; *Diet ; Endangered Species ; Extinction, Biological ; Feeding Behavior/*physiology ; Lemur/*physiology ; Madagascar ; Sasa ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Animals with dietary specializations can be used to link climate to specific ecological drivers of endangerment. Only two mammals, the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in Asia and the greater bamboo lemur (Prolemur simus) in Madagascar, consume the nutritionally poor and mechanically challenging culm or trunk of woody bamboos [1-3]. Even though the greater bamboo lemur is critically endangered, paleontological evidence shows that it was once broadly distributed [4, 5]. Here, integrating morphological, paleontological, and ecological evidence, we project the effects of climate change on greater bamboo lemurs. Both the giant panda and the greater bamboo lemur are shown to share diagnostic dental features indicative of a bamboo diet, thereby providing an ecometric indicator [6, 7] of diet preserved in the fossil record. Analyses of bamboo feeding in living populations show that bamboo culm is consumed only during the dry season and that the greater bamboo lemur is currently found in regions with the shortest dry season. In contrast, paleontological localities of the greater bamboo lemurs have the longest dry seasons. Future projections show that many present-day greater bamboo lemur populations will experience prolonged dry seasons similar to those of the localities where only fossils of the greater bamboo lemur are found. Whereas abundant foods such as bamboo allow feeding specialists to thrive, even a moderate change in seasonality may outstrip the capacity of greater bamboo lemurs to persist on their mechanically demanding food source. Coupling known changes in species distribution with high-resolution ecological and historical data helps to identify extinction risks.}, }
@article {pmid29107377, year = {2018}, author = {Eleftheriou, D and Kiachidis, K and Kalmintzis, G and Kalea, A and Bantasis, C and Koumadoraki, P and Spathara, ME and Tsolaki, A and Tzampazidou, MI and Gemitzi, A}, title = {Determination of annual and seasonal daytime and nighttime trends of MODIS LST over Greece - climate change implications.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {616-617}, number = {}, pages = {937-947}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.226}, pmid = {29107377}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most challenging research topics during the last few decades, as temperature rise has already posed a significant impact on the earth's functions thus affecting all life of the planet. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is identified as a key variable in environmental and climate studies. The present study investigates the distribution of daytime and nighttime LST trends over Greece, a country in the Mediterranean area which is identified as one of the main "hot-spots" of climate change projections. Remotely sensed LST data were obtained from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor in the form of 8-day composites of day and night values at a resolution of 1km for a 17-year period, i.e. from 2000 to 2017. Spatial aggregates of 10km×10km were computed and the annual and seasonal temporal trends were determined for each one of those sub-areas. Results showed that annual trends of daily LST in the majority of areas demonstrated decrease ranging from -1∗10[-2]°C to -1.3∗10[-3]°C, with some sporadic parts showing a slight increase. A totally different outcome is observed in the fate of night LST, with all areas over Greece demonstrating increasing annual trends ranging from 4.6∗10[-5]°C to 3.1∗10[-3]°C, with highest values in the South-East parts of the country. Seasonal trends in day and night LST showed the same pattern, i.e., a general decrease in the day LST and a definite increase in night. An interesting finding is the increase in winter LST trends observed both for day and night LST, indicating that the absolute minimum annual LST observed during winter in Greece increases. Our results also indicate that the annual diurnal LST range is decreasing.}, }
@article {pmid29105912, year = {2018}, author = {Reisinger, A and Clark, H}, title = {How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {1749-1761}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13975}, pmid = {29105912}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Greenhouse Gases/*chemistry/metabolism ; *Livestock ; Methane/analysis ; }, abstract = {Agriculture directly contributes about 10%-12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO2 . Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle-climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non-CO2 emissions now and in future, and to CO2 from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non-CO2 emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO2 from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non-CO2 livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO2 emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non-CO2 emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal.}, }
@article {pmid29103648, year = {2018}, author = {Teixeira, EI and de Ruiter, J and Ausseil, AG and Daigneault, A and Johnstone, P and Holmes, A and Tait, A and Ewert, F}, title = {Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {616-617}, number = {}, pages = {785-795}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.247}, pmid = {29103648}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil (e.g. residual nitrogen, N) aspects. For example, by adapting maize to early-sowing dates under a warmer climate, there was an advance in catch crop establishment which enhanced residual soil N uptake. This dynamics, however, differed with local environment and choice of short- or long-cycle maize genotypes. Adaptation was insufficient to neutralize rotation yield losses in lowlands but consistently enhanced yield gains in highlands, where other constraints limited arable cropping. The positive responses to adaptation were mainly due to increases in solar radiation interception across the entire growth season. These results provide deeper insights on the dynamics of climate change impacts for crop rotation systems. Such knowledge can be used to develop improved regional impact assessments for situations where multi-crop rotations better represent predominant agricultural systems.}, }
@article {pmid29098819, year = {2017}, author = {Lin, L and Jin, L and Wang, ZH and Cui, ZJ and Ma, Y}, title = {[Prediction of the potential distribution of Tibetan medicinal Lycium ruthenicum in context of climate change].}, journal = {Zhongguo Zhong yao za zhi = Zhongguo zhongyao zazhi = China journal of Chinese materia medica}, volume = {42}, number = {14}, pages = {2659-2669}, doi = {10.19540/j.cnki.cjcmm.2017.0117}, pmid = {29098819}, issn = {1001-5302}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Lycium/*growth &amp; development ; Medicine, Tibetan Traditional ; Plants, Medicinal/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {To predict the suitable distribution patterns of Lycium ruthenicum in the present and future under the background of climate change, and provide reference for the resources sustainable utilization and GAP standardized planting. The software of Maxent and ArcGis was used to predict the potential suitable regions and grades of L. ruthenicum in China based on the 149 distribution information, climate data of contemporary (1950-2000) and future (20-80 decade of 21 century), and considering of three greenhouse gaseous emission scenario. The results showed that：the suitable distribution regions of L. ruthenicum are mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Neimenggu, and Ningxia province in present. In addition, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Xizang are also distribution regions.The suitable distribution area of L. ruthenicum is 284.506 949×104 km2, accounted for 29.6% of the land area of China.The relatively stable area of the suitable regions accounted for 25.2% of the total suitable region area.Under the background of climate change, compared with contemporary, the total area of suitable region is reducing and moderately suitable area is increasing at different degree at the 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 decade of 21 century. Climate change both can change the total area of suitable regions and habitat suitability of L. ruthenicum. It could provide a strategic guidance for protection, development and utilization of L. ruthenicum though the prediction of potential suitable regions distribution of L. ruthenicum based on the mainly factor of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29096948, year = {2018}, author = {Watts, N and Amann, M and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Belesova, K and Bouley, T and Boykoff, M and Byass, P and Cai, W and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Chambers, J and Cox, PM and Daly, M and Dasandi, N and Davies, M and Depledge, M and Depoux, A and Dominguez-Salas, P and Drummond, P and Ekins, P and Flahault, A and Frumkin, H and Georgeson, L and Ghanei, M and Grace, D and Graham, H and Grojsman, R and Haines, A and Hamilton, I and Hartinger, S and Johnson, A and Kelman, I and Kiesewetter, G and Kniveton, D and Liang, L and Lott, M and Lowe, R and Mace, G and Odhiambo Sewe, M and Maslin, M and Mikhaylov, S and Milner, J and Latifi, AM and Moradi-Lakeh, M and Morrissey, K and Murray, K and Neville, T and Nilsson, M and Oreszczyn, T and Owfi, F and Pencheon, D and Pye, S and Rabbaniha, M and Robinson, E and Rocklöv, J and Schütte, S and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Steinbach, R and Tabatabaei, M and Wheeler, N and Wilkinson, P and Gong, P and Montgomery, H and Costello, A}, title = {The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {391}, number = {10120}, pages = {581-630}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32464-9}, pmid = {29096948}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; //Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change/economics ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disasters ; Electricity ; Food Supply ; Global Health/trends ; Health Occupations ; Health Planning/economics ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Infrared Rays ; International Cooperation ; Malnutrition/etiology ; Maternal Health ; Public Health/*trends ; Risk Assessment/trends ; Work ; }, }
@article {pmid29093163, year = {2017}, author = {Lutz, W}, title = {How population growth relates to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {46}, pages = {12103-12105}, pmid = {29093163}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; *Population Growth ; }, }
@article {pmid29087298, year = {2017}, author = {Scovronick, N and Budolfson, MB and Dennig, F and Fleurbaey, M and Siebert, A and Socolow, RH and Spears, D and Wagner, F}, title = {Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {46}, pages = {12338-12343}, pmid = {29087298}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {P2C HD042849/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; Family Planning Services/*ethics/trends ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Models, Economic ; Policy ; *Population Forecast ; *Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population.}, }
@article {pmid29081540, year = {2017}, author = {Regehr, EV and Wilson, RR and Rode, KD and Runge, MC and Stern, HL}, title = {Harvesting wildlife affected by climate change: a modelling and management approach for polar bears.}, journal = {The Journal of applied ecology}, volume = {54}, number = {5}, pages = {1534-1543}, pmid = {29081540}, issn = {0021-8901}, abstract = {The conservation of many wildlife species requires understanding the demographic effects of climate change, including interactions between climate change and harvest, which can provide cultural, nutritional or economic value to humans.We present a demographic model that is based on the polar bear Ursus maritimus life cycle and includes density-dependent relationships linking vital rates to environmental carrying capacity (K). Using this model, we develop a state-dependent management framework to calculate a harvest level that (i) maintains a population above its maximum net productivity level (MNPL; the population size that produces the greatest net increment in abundance) relative to a changing K, and (ii) has a limited negative effect on population persistence.Our density-dependent relationships suggest that MNPL for polar bears occurs at approximately 0·69 (95% CI = 0·63-0·74) of K. Population growth rate at MNPL was approximately 0·82 (95% CI = 0·79-0·84) of the maximum intrinsic growth rate, suggesting relatively strong compensation for human-caused mortality.Our findings indicate that it is possible to minimize the demographic risks of harvest under climate change, including the risk that harvest will accelerate population declines driven by loss of the polar bear's sea-ice habitat. This requires that (i) the harvest rate - which could be 0 in some situations - accounts for a population's intrinsic growth rate, (ii) the harvest rate accounts for the quality of population data (e.g. lower harvest when uncertainty is large), and (iii) the harvest level is obtained by multiplying the harvest rate by an updated estimate of population size. Environmental variability, the sex and age of removed animals and risk tolerance can also affect the harvest rate. Synthesis and applications. We present a coupled modelling and management approach for wildlife that accounts for climate change and can be used to balance trade-offs among multiple conservation goals. In our example application to polar bears experiencing sea-ice loss, the goals are to maintain population viability while providing continued opportunities for subsistence harvest. Our approach may be relevant to other species for which near-term management is focused on human factors that directly influence population dynamics within the broader context of climate-induced habitat degradation.}, }
@article {pmid29080073, year = {2017}, author = {Orru, H and Ebi, KL and Forsberg, B}, title = {The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {504-513}, pmid = {29080073}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/analysis/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; Ozone/analysis ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.}, }
@article {pmid29078312, year = {2017}, author = {Singh, MS and Kuang, Z and Maloney, ED and Hannah, WM and Wolding, BO}, title = {Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {44}, pages = {11657-11662}, pmid = {29078312}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere.}, }
@article {pmid29078274, year = {2017}, author = {Garner, AJ and Mann, ME and Emanuel, KA and Kopp, RE and Lin, N and Alley, RB and Horton, BP and DeConto, RM and Donnelly, JP and Pollard, D}, title = {Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {45}, pages = {11861-11866}, pmid = {29078274}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Disasters ; *Floods ; Models, Theoretical ; New York City ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 4.0-5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100 and ranges from 5.0-15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970-2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030-2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280-2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse.}, }
@article {pmid29076111, year = {2017}, author = {Robine, JM}, title = {When climate change encounters the revolution in adult longevity.}, journal = {Aging clinical and experimental research}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {1073-1074}, doi = {10.1007/s40520-017-0839-z}, pmid = {29076111}, issn = {1720-8319}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Italy ; *Longevity ; }, }
@article {pmid29076018, year = {2017}, author = {Eide, A}, title = {Climate change, fisheries management and fishing aptitude affecting spatial and temporal distributions of the Barents Sea cod fishery.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {46}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {387-399}, pmid = {29076018}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aptitude ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Fishes ; Seafood ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to influence spatial and temporal distributions of fish stocks. The aim of this paper is to compare climate change impact on a fishery with other factors impacting the performance of fishing fleets. The fishery in question is the Northeast Arctic cod fishery, a well-documented fishery where data on spatial and temporal distributions are available. A cellular automata model is developed for the purpose of mimicking possible distributional patterns and different management alternatives are studied under varying assumptions on the fleets' fishing aptitude. Fisheries management and fishing aptitude, also including technological development and local knowledge, turn out to have the greatest impact on the spatial distribution of the fishing effort, when comparing the IPCC's SRES A1B scenario with repeated sequences of the current environmental situation over a period of 45 years. In both cases, the highest profits in the simulation period of 45 years are obtained at low exploitation levels and moderate fishing aptitude.}, }
@article {pmid29075456, year = {2017}, author = {Cobben, MMP and van Noordwijk, AJ}, title = {Consequences of the genetic threshold model for observing partial migration under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {20}, pages = {8379-8387}, pmid = {29075456}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long-used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual-based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species' colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change-induced shifts in species' ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the species level, which will reduce the risk of extinction.}, }
@article {pmid29075443, year = {2017}, author = {Virkkala, R and Lehikoinen, A}, title = {Birds on the move in the face of climate change: High species turnover in northern Europe.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {20}, pages = {8201-8209}, pmid = {29075443}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Species richness is predicted to increase in the northern latitudes in the warming climate due to ranges of many southern species expanding northwards. We studied changes in the composition of the whole avifauna and in bird species richness in a period of already warming climate in Finland (in northern Europe) covering 1,100 km in south-north gradient across the boreal zone (over 300,000 km[2]). We compared bird species richness and species-specific changes (for all 235 bird species that occur in Finland) in range size (number of squares occupied) and range shifts (measured as median of area of occupancy) based on bird atlas studies between 1974-1989 and 2006-2010. In addition, we tested how the habitat preference and migration strategy of species explain species-specific variation in the change of the range size. The study was carried out in 10 km squares with similar research intensity in both time periods. The species richness did not change significantly between the two time periods. The composition of the bird fauna, however, changed considerably with 37.0% of species showing an increase and 34.9% a decrease in the numbers of occupied squares, that is, about equal number of species gained and lost their range. Altogether 95.7% of all species (225/235) showed changes either in the numbers of occupied squares or they experienced a range shift (or both). The range size of archipelago birds increased and long-distance migrants declined significantly. Range loss observed in long-distance migrants is in line with the observed population declines of long-distance migrants in the whole Europe. The results show that there is an ongoing considerable species turnover due to climate change and due to land use and other direct human influence. High bird species turnover observed in northern Europe may also affect the functional diversity of species communities.}, }
@article {pmid29073190, year = {2017}, author = {Chiu, YT and Bain, A and Deng, SL and Ho, YC and Chen, WH and Tzeng, HY}, title = {Effects of climate change on a mutualistic coastal species: Recovery from typhoon damages and risks of population erosion.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {e0186763}, pmid = {29073190}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Ficus/*growth &amp; development ; *Models, Biological ; *Pollination ; Taiwan ; *Wasps ; }, abstract = {Presently, climate change has increased the frequency of extreme meteorological events such as tropical cyclones. In the western Pacific basin, these cyclones are called typhoons, and in this area, around Taiwan Island, their frequency has almost doubled since 2000. When approaching landmasses, typhoons have devastating effects on coastal vegetation. The increased frequency of these events has challenged the survival of coastal plant species and their posttyphoon recovery. In this study, a population of coastal gynodioecious Ficus pedunculosa var. mearnsii (Mearns fig) was surveyed for two years to investigate its recovery after Typhoon Morakot, which occurred in August 2009. Similar to all the Ficus species, the Mearns fig has an obligate mutualistic association with pollinating fig wasp species, which requires syconia (the closed Ficus inflorescence) to complete its life cycle. Moreover, male gynodioecious fig species produces both pollen and pollen vectors, whereas the female counterpart produces only seeds. The recovery of the Mearns fig was observed to be rapid, with the production of both leaves and syconia. The syconium:leaf ratio was greater for male trees than for female trees, indicating the importance of syconium production for the wasp survival. Pollinating wasps live for approximately 1 day; therefore, receptive syconia are crucial. Every typhoon season, few typhoons pass by the coasts where the Mearns fig grows, destroying all the leaves and syconia. In this paper, we highlight the potential diminution of the fig population that can lead to the extinction of the mutualistic pair of species. The effects of climate change on coastal species warrant wider surveys.}, }
@article {pmid29073012, year = {2017}, author = {Lau, JA and Lennon, JT and Heath, KD}, title = {Trees harness the power of microbes to survive climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {42}, pages = {11009-11011}, pmid = {29073012}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forests ; *Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid29072941, year = {2018}, author = {Kreslake, JM and Sarfaty, M and Roser-Renouf, C and Leiserowitz, AA and Maibach, EW}, title = {The Critical Roles of Health Professionals in Climate Change Prevention and Preparedness.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S68-S69}, pmid = {29072941}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning ; Health Personnel ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; *Preventive Health Services ; Public Health/education/*methods ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid29072937, year = {2018}, author = {DeJarnett, N and Robb, K and Castellanos, I and Dettman, L and Patel, SS}, title = {The American Public Health Association's 2017 Year of Climate Change and Health: Time for Action.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S76-S77}, pmid = {29072937}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*American Public Health Association ; *Climate Change ; Health Equity ; Humans ; Public Health ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid29072936, year = {2018}, author = {Ganesh, C and Smith, JA}, title = {Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S114-S119}, pmid = {29072936}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {California ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Environmental Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Farmers ; Greenhouse Gases ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Mental Disorders/epidemiology ; Occupational Exposure/adverse effects ; *Policy Making ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California's progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions.}, }
@article {pmid29072934, year = {2018}, author = {Burke, TA and Fox, MA}, title = {Global to Local: Public Health on the Front Lines of Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S74-S75}, pmid = {29072934}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; Leadership ; Public Health Administration/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid29072933, year = {2018}, author = {Waila, JM and Mahero, MW and Namusisi, S and Hoffman, SJ and Robertson, C}, title = {Outcomes of Climate Change in a Marginalized Population: An Ethnography on the Turkana Pastoralists in Kenya.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {108}, number = {S2}, pages = {S70-S71}, pmid = {29072933}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; Anthropology, Cultural ; *Climate Change ; Conflict, Psychological ; *Droughts ; Humans ; Kenya/epidemiology ; *Livestock ; }, }
@article {pmid29070449, year = {2018}, author = {Alonso-Ayuso, M and Quemada, M and Vanclooster, M and Ruiz-Ramos, M and Rodriguez, A and Gabriel, JL}, title = {Assessing cover crop management under actual and climate change conditions.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {621}, number = {}, pages = {1330-1341}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.095}, pmid = {29070449}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The termination date is recognized as a key management factor to enhance cover crops for multiple benefits and to avoid competition with the following cash crop. However, the optimum date depends on annual meteorological conditions, and climate variability induces uncertainty in a decision that needs to be taken every year. One of the most important cover crop benefits is reducing nitrate leaching, a major concern for irrigated agricultural systems and highly affected by the termination date. This study aimed to determine the effects of cover crops and their termination date on the water and N balances of an irrigated Mediterranean agroecosystem under present and future climate conditions. For that purpose, two field experiments were used for inverse calibration and validation of the WAVE model (Water and Agrochemicals in the soil and Vadose Environment), based on continuous soil water content data, soil nitrogen content and crop measurements. The calibrated and validated model was subsequently used in advanced scenario analysis under present and climate change conditions. Under present conditions, a late termination date increased cover crop biomass and subsequently soil water and N depletion. Hence, preemptive competition risk with the main crop was enhanced, but a reduction of nitrate leaching also occurred. The hypothetical planting date of the following cash crop was also an important tool to reduce preemptive competition. Under climate change conditions, the simulations showed that the termination date will be even more important to reduce preemptive competition and nitrate leaching.}, }
@article {pmid29069444, year = {2017}, author = {Weichert, H and Högy, P and Mora-Ramirez, I and Fuchs, J and Eggert, K and Koehler, P and Weschke, W and Fangmeier, A and Weber, H}, title = {Grain yield and quality responses of wheat expressing a barley sucrose transporter to combined climate change factors.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {68}, number = {20}, pages = {5511-5525}, pmid = {29069444}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Hordeum/*genetics ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Membrane Transport Proteins/*genetics/metabolism ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Plant Proteins/*genetics/metabolism ; Plants, Genetically Modified/genetics/metabolism ; Triticum/*genetics/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Crop yield stability must be ensured under future climate conditions such as elevated CO2 and high temperatures. We tested 'HOSUT', a winter wheat line expressing a grain-targeted sucrose transporter of barley in response to combinations of CO2 enrichment, a heat wave, and high nitrogen fertilization. Compared with wild-type Certo, HOSUT had a superior performance for grain yield, aboveground biomass, and ears per plant, obviously due to transgene activity in developing grains and young vegetative sinks. HOSUT grains were larger and contained more endosperm cells. HOSUT and high CO2 effects similarly improved phenological and yield-related traits. Significant HOSUT-CO2 interactions for biomass of stems, ears, grain yield, nitrogen yield, and grain number revealed that Certo was promoted by CO2 enrichment, whereas HOSUT responded weakly. CO2 enrichment strongly reduced and HOSUT effects weakly reduced grain nitrogen, storage proteins, and free amino acids. In contrast to CO2 enrichment, HOSUT effects did not impair grain micronutrient concentrations. Significant HOSUT-nitrogen fertilization interactions for ear biomass, grain yield, grain number per plant, and harvest index indicated that HOSUT benefited more from additional nitrogen. The heat wave decreased aboveground and ear biomass, grain yield, harvest index, grain size, and starch and water use, but increased grain sucrose concentration.}, }
@article {pmid29069361, year = {2017}, author = {Kistner, EJ}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Abundance of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) With Special Reference to North America and Europe.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {46}, number = {6}, pages = {1212-1224}, doi = {10.1093/ee/nvx157}, pmid = {29069361}, issn = {1938-2936}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Heteroptera/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Introduced Species ; Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Seasons ; Temperature ; United States ; }, abstract = {The invasive brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål; Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), has recently emerged as a harmful pest of horticultural crops in North America and Europe. Native to East Asia, this highly polyphagous insect is spreading rapidly worldwide. Climate change will add further complications to managing this species in terms of both geographic distribution and population growth. This study used CLIMEX to compare potential H. halys distribution under recent and future climate models using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global circulation models, CSIRO Mk3.0 and MIROC-H. Simulated changes in seasonal phenology and voltinism were examined. Under the possible future climate scenarios, suitable range in Europe expands northward. In North America, the suitable H. halys range shifts northward into Canada and contracts from its southern temperature range limits in the United States due to increased heat stress. Prolonged periods of warm temperatures resulted in longer H. halys growing seasons. However, future climate scenarios indicated that rising summer temperatures decrease H. halys growth potential compared to recent climatic conditions, which in turn, may reduce mid-summer crop damage. Climate change may increase the number of H. halys generations produced annually, thereby enabling the invasive insect to become multivoltine in the northern latitudes of North America and Europe where it is currently reported to be univoltine. These results indicate prime horticultural production areas in Europe, the northeastern United States, and southeastern Canada are at greatest risk from H. halys under both current and possible future climates.}, }
@article {pmid29068180, year = {2017}, author = {Van Hulle, S}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Health From the Perspective of Catholic Relief Services.}, journal = {Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing}, volume = {49}, number = {6}, pages = {596-597}, doi = {10.1111/jnu.12227}, pmid = {29068180}, issn = {1547-5069}, mesh = {Catholicism ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Relief Work ; *Religious Missions ; }, }
@article {pmid29067642, year = {2017}, author = {Crépin, AS and Karcher, M and Gascard, JC}, title = {Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS): Integrated perspectives.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {46}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {341-354}, pmid = {29067642}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Commerce ; *Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {This introduction to the special issue presents an overview of the wide range of results produced during the European Union project Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS). This project assessed the main impacts of climate change on Arctic Ocean's geophysical variables and how these impending changes could be expected to impact directly and indirectly on socio-economic activities like transportation, marine sea food production and resource exploitation. Related governance issues were examined. These results were used to develop several management tools that can live on beyond ACCESS. In this article, we synthesize most of the project results in the form of tentative responses to questions raised during the project. By doing so, we put the findings of the project in a broader perspective and introduce the contributions made in the different articles published in this special issue.}, }
@article {pmid29067639, year = {2017}, author = {Nordam, T and Dunnebier, DAE and Beegle-Krause, CJ and Reed, M and Slagstad, D}, title = {Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {46}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {442-452}, pmid = {29067639}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Ice Cover ; Petroleum/analysis ; *Petroleum Pollution ; Seasons ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009-2012 and 2050-2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC's A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in "typical" outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.}, }
@article {pmid29067638, year = {2017}, author = {Petrick, S and Riemann-Campe, K and Hoog, S and Growitsch, C and Schwind, H and Gerdes, R and Rehdanz, K}, title = {Climate change, future Arctic Sea ice, and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {46}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {410-422}, pmid = {29067638}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Ice Cover ; Oceans and Seas ; *Oil and Gas Fields ; Petroleum ; }, abstract = {A significant share of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.}, }
@article {pmid29065994, year = {2017}, author = {Sim, F and Mackie, P}, title = {Climate change, hurricanes and public health.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {152}, number = {}, pages = {A1-A2}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2017.10.009}, pmid = {29065994}, issn = {1476-5616}, }
@article {pmid29064726, year = {2019}, author = {Drappier, J and Thibon, C and Rabot, A and Geny-Denis, L}, title = {Relationship between wine composition and temperature: Impact on Bordeaux wine typicity in the context of global warming-Review.}, journal = {Critical reviews in food science and nutrition}, volume = {59}, number = {1}, pages = {14-30}, doi = {10.1080/10408398.2017.1355776}, pmid = {29064726}, issn = {1549-7852}, mesh = {France ; *Global Warming ; Temperature ; Vitis/*physiology ; Wine/*analysis/*classification ; }, abstract = {Weather conditions throughout the year have a greater influence than other factors (such as soil and cultivars) on grapevine development and berry composition. Temperature affects gene expression and enzymatic activity of primary and secondary metabolism which determine grape ripening and wine characteristics. In the context of the climate change, temperatures will probably rise between 0.3°C and 1.7°C over the next 20 years. They are already rising and the physiology of grapevines is already changing. These modifications exert a profound shift in primary (sugar and organic acid balance) and secondary (phenolic and aromatic compounds) berry metabolisms and the resulting composition of wine. For example, some Bordeaux wines have a tendency toward reduced freshness and a modification of their ruby color. In this context it is necessary to understand the impact of higher temperatures on grape development, harvest procedures, and wine composition in order to preserve the typicity of the wines and to adapt winemaking processes.}, }
@article {pmid29059630, year = {2018}, author = {Hess, C and Niemeyer, T and Fichtner, A and Jansen, K and Kunz, M and Maneke, M and von Wehrden, H and Quante, M and Walmsley, D and von Oheimb, G and Härdtle, W}, title = {Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition alters growth responses of European beech (Fagus sylvativa L.) to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {233}, number = {}, pages = {92-98}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2017.10.024}, pmid = {29059630}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*toxicity ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fagus/drug effects/*physiology ; *Forests ; Nitrogen/*toxicity ; Plant Roots ; Temperature ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Global change affects the functioning of forest ecosystems and the services they provide, but little is known about the interactive effects of co-occurring global change drivers on important functions such as tree growth and vitality. In the present study we quantified the interactive (i.e. synergistic or antagonistic) effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) on tree growth (in terms of tree-ring width, TRW), taking forest ecosystems with European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) as an example. We hypothesised that (i) N deposition and climatic variables can evoke non-additive responses of the radial increment of beech trees, and (ii) N loads have the potential to strengthen the trees' sensitivity to climate change. In young stands, we found a synergistic positive effect of N deposition and annual mean temperature on TRW, possibly linked to the alleviation of an N shortage in young stands. In mature stands, however, high N deposition significantly increased the trees' sensitivity to increasing annual mean temperatures (antagonistic effect on TRW), possibly due to increased fine root dieback, decreasing mycorrhizal colonization or shifts in biomass allocation patterns (aboveground vs. belowground). Accordingly, N deposition and climatic variables caused both synergistic and antagonistic effects on the radial increment of beech trees, depending on tree age and stand characteristics. Hence, the nature of interactions could mediate the long-term effects of global change drivers (including N deposition) on forest carbon sequestration. In conclusion, our findings illustrate that interaction processes between climatic variables and N deposition are complex and have the potential to impair growth and performance of European beech. This in turn emphasises the importance of multiple-factor studies to foster an integrated understanding and models aiming at improved projections of tree growth responses to co-occurring drivers of global change.}, }
@article {pmid29057960, year = {2017}, author = {Sakai, A and Fujita, K}, title = {Contrasting glacier responses to recent climate change in high-mountain Asia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {13717}, pmid = {29057960}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Recent studies of Asian glaciers have shown that glaciers in eastern Karakoram and West Kunlun have been slightly gaining mass while those in nearby Jammu Kashmir and Himalayas are losing mass, at rates of more than 0.5 m w.e.yr[-1] and about 0.3 m w.e.yr[-1], respectively. Two possible explanations have been proposed for this difference in glacier behaviour: spatial heterogeneity in climate change (climatic forcing) or differing glacier responses to climate change (glacier response). However, neither explanation has strong supporting evidence. Here, we examine the glacial response by calculating the mass-balance sensitivity to temperature change in high-mountain Asia. In support of the glacier-response explanation, we find a strong correlation between observed glacier surface-elevation changes and mass-balance sensitivity of glaciers. The high coefficient of determination (R[2] = 0.61) suggests that spatially heterogeneous mass-balance sensitivity has more explanatory power than regionally different climate change for the recent contrasting glacier fluctuations in the high mountain Asia.}, }
@article {pmid29055170, year = {2018}, author = {Tito, R and Vasconcelos, HL and Feeley, KJ}, title = {Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {e592-e602}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13959}, pmid = {29055170}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Peru ; }, abstract = {One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%-29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ ha[-1] yr[-1] . These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non-climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development.}, }
@article {pmid29055169, year = {2018}, author = {Ballarin, F and Li, S}, title = {Diversification in tropics and subtropics following the mid-Miocene climate change: A case study of the spider genus Nesticella.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {e577-e591}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13958}, pmid = {29055169}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Asia ; Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Phylogeny ; Spiders/classification/*genetics ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Caves may offer suitable refugia for troglophilic invertebrates during periods of unfavourable climatic conditions because of their stable microclimates. As a consequence, allopatric divergence from their epigean counterparts may occur, leading to formation of truly hypogean communities (the Climatic Relict Hypothesis). Unlike the well-studied effects of Pleistocene glaciations, we know little about how ancient climate changes drove the development of cave-dwelling organisms living at both middle and lower latitudes. We investigate the evolutionary history of the troglophilic spider genus Nesticella (Araneae, Nesticidae) in relation to Asian Neogene (23-2.6 Ma) climatic changes. Our analyses discern clear differences in the evolution of the two main clades of Nesticella, which occur in temperate/subtropical and tropical latitudes. Eastern Asian Nesticella gradually evolved greater sedentariness and a strict subterranean lifestyle starting from the middle Miocene Epoch (~15-14 Ma) in conjunction with the progressive deterioration of the climate and vegetational shifts. Caves appear to have acted as refugia because of their internally uniform temperature and humidity, which allowed these spiders to survive increasing external seasonality and habitat loss. In contrast, a uniform accumulation of lineages, long-lasting times for dispersals and the lack of a comparable habitat shifting characterized the tropical lineage. This difference in pattern likely owes to the mild effects of climate change at low latitudes and the consequent lack of strong climatic drivers in tropical environments. Thus, the mid-Miocene climatic shift appears to be the major evolutionary force shaping the ecological differences between Asian troglophilic invertebrates and the driver of the permanent hypogean communities in middle latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid29055070, year = {2018}, author = {McClelland, GTW and Altwegg, R and van Aarde, RJ and Ferreira, S and Burger, AE and Chown, SL}, title = {Climate change leads to increasing population density and impacts of a key island invader.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {212-224}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1642}, pmid = {29055070}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Diet ; *Ecosystem ; *Invertebrates ; Islands ; *Mice ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {The considerable threats of invasive rodents to island biodiversity are likely to be compounded by climate change. Forecasts for such interactions have been most pronounced for the Southern Ocean islands where ameliorating conditions are expected to decrease thermal and resource restrictions on rodents. Firm evidence for changing rodent populations in response to climate change, and demonstrations of associated impacts on the terrestrial environment, are nonetheless entirely absent for the region. Using data collected over three decades on sub-Antarctic Marion Island, we tested empirically whether mouse populations have changed through time and whether these changes can be associated significantly with changing abiotic conditions. Changes in invertebrate populations, which have previously been attributed to mouse predation, but with little explicit demographic analysis, were also examined to determine whether they can be associated with changing mouse populations. The total number of mice on the island at annual peak density increased by 430.0% between 1979-1980 and 2008-2011. This increase was due to an advanced breeding season, which was robustly related to the number of precipitation-free days during the non-breeding season. Mice directly reduced invertebrate densities, with biomass losses of up to two orders of magnitude in some habitats. Such invertebrate declines are expected to have significant consequences for ecosystem processes over the long term. Our results demonstrate that as climate change continues to create ameliorating conditions for invasive rodents on sub-Antarctic islands, the severity of their impacts will increase. They also emphasize the importance of rodent eradication for the restoration of invaded islands.}, }
@article {pmid29054633, year = {2018}, author = {Czortek, P and Delimat, A and Dyderski, MK and Zięba, A and Jagodziński, AM and Jaroszewicz, B}, title = {Climate change, tourism and historical grazing influence the distribution of Carex lachenalii Schkuhr - A rare arctic-alpine species in the Tatra Mts.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {618}, number = {}, pages = {1628-1637}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.001}, pmid = {29054633}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Biodiversity ; Carex Plant/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Herbivory ; Poland ; }, abstract = {Mountain vegetation is highly specialized to harsh climatic conditions and therefore is sensitive to any change in environment. The rarest and most vulnerable plants occurring in alpine regions are expected to respond rapidly to environmental changes. An example of such a species is Carex lachenalii subsp. lachenalii Schkuhr, which occurs in Poland on only a few isolated sites in the Tatra Mts. The aim of this study was to assess changes in distribution of C. lachenalii in the Tatra Mts over the past 50-150years and the effects of climate change, tourism and historical grazing on the ecological niche of C. lachenalii. We focused on changes in the importance of functional diversity components in shaping plant species composition. Over the past 50-150years, the elevation of the average distribution of C. lachenalii shifted about 178m upward alongside a significant prolongation of the vegetative season by approximately 20days in the last 50-60years. Species composition of plots without C. lachenalii was characterized by competition between plants, whereas on plots with C. lachenalii habitat filtering was the most important component. Our results suggest that climate change was the main factor driving upward shift of C. lachenalii. Moderate trampling enhanced horizontal spread of this plant, whereas cessation of grazing grazing caused decline of C. lachenalii. The three environmental factors studied that determined shifts in distribution of C. lachenalii may also contribute to changes in distribution of other rare mountain plant species causing changes in ecosystem functioning.}, }
@article {pmid29052387, year = {2017}, author = {Zhu, SD and Huang, LQ and Guo, LP and Ma, XT and Hao, QX and Le, ZY and Zhang, XB and Yang, G and Zhang, Y and Chen, ML}, title = {[Climate change impacts on yield of Cordyceps sinensis and research on yield prediction model of C. sinensis].}, journal = {Zhongguo Zhong yao za zhi = Zhongguo zhongyao zazhi = China journal of Chinese materia medica}, volume = {42}, number = {7}, pages = {1281-1286}, doi = {10.19540/j.cnki.cjcmm.2017.0055}, pmid = {29052387}, issn = {1001-5302}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Cordyceps/*growth &amp; development ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Tibet ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Cordyceps sinensis is a Chinese unique precious herbal material, its genuine producing areas covering Naqu, Changdu in Qinghai Tibet Plateau, Yushu in Qinghai province and other regions. In recent 10 years, C. sinensis resources is decreasing as a result of the blindly and excessively perennial dug. How to rationally protect, develop and utilize of the valuable resources of C. sinensis has been referred to an important field of research on C. sinensis. The ecological environment and climate change trend of Qinghai Tibet plateau happens prior to other regions, which means that the distribution and evolution of C. sinensis are more obvious and intense than those of the other populations. Based on RS (remote sensing)/GIS(geographic information system) technology, this paper utilized the relationship between the snowline elevation, the average temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours in harvest period (April and may) of C. sinensis and the actual production of C. sinensis to establish a weighted geometric mean model. The model's prediction accuracy can reach 82.16% at least in forecasting C. sinensis year yield in Naqu area in every early June. This study can provide basic datum and information for supporting the C. sinensis industry healthful, sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid29051455, year = {2017}, author = {Tsai, WT}, title = {Fate of Chloromethanes in the Atmospheric Environment: Implications for Human Health, Ozone Formation and Depletion, and Global Warming Impacts.}, journal = {Toxics}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {29051455}, issn = {2305-6304}, abstract = {Among the halogenated hydrocarbons, chloromethanes (i.e., methyl chloride, CH3Cl; methylene chloride, CH2Cl2; chloroform, CHCl3; and carbon tetrachloride, CCl4) play a vital role due to their extensive uses as solvents and chemical intermediates. This article aims to review their main chemical/physical properties and commercial/industrial uses, as well as the environment and health hazards posed by them and their toxic decomposition products. The environmental properties (including atmospheric lifetime, radiative efficiency, ozone depletion potential, global warming potential, photochemical ozone creation potential, and surface mixing ratio) of these chlorinated methanes are also reviewed. In addition, this paper further discusses their atmospheric fates and human health implications because they are apt to reside in the lower atmosphere when released into the environment. According to the atmospheric degradation mechanism, their toxic degradation products in the troposphere include hydrogen chloride (HCl), carbon monoxide (CO), chlorine (Cl2), formyl chloride (HCOCl), carbonyl chloride (COCl2), and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). Among them, COCl2 (also called phosgene) is a powerful irritating gas, which is easily hydrolyzed or thermally decomposed to form hydrogen chloride.}, }
@article {pmid29045616, year = {2017}, author = {Danovaro, R and Corinaldesi, C and Dell'Anno, A and Rastelli, E}, title = {Potential impact of global climate change on benthic deep-sea microbes.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology letters}, volume = {364}, number = {23}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsle/fnx214}, pmid = {29045616}, issn = {1574-6968}, mesh = {*Archaea ; *Bacteria ; *Climate Change ; Extreme Environments ; Oceans and Seas ; *Viruses ; *Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Benthic deep-sea environments are the largest ecosystem on Earth, covering ∼65% of the Earth surface. Microbes inhabiting this huge biome at all water depths represent the most abundant biological components and a relevant portion of the biomass of the biosphere, and play a crucial role in global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing evidence suggests that global climate changes are affecting also deep-sea ecosystems, both directly (causing shifts in bottom-water temperature, oxygen concentration and pH) and indirectly (through changes in surface oceans' productivity and in the consequent export of organic matter to the seafloor). However, the responses of the benthic deep-sea biota to such shifts remain largely unknown. This applies particularly to deep-sea microbes, which include bacteria, archaea, microeukaryotes and their viruses. Understanding the potential impacts of global change on the benthic deep-sea microbial assemblages and the consequences on the functioning of the ocean interior is a priority to better forecast the potential consequences at global scale. Here we explore the potential changes in the benthic deep-sea microbiology expected in the coming decades using case studies on specific systems used as test models.}, }
@article {pmid29045479, year = {2017}, author = {Götschke, J and Mertsch, P and Bischof, M and Kneidinger, N and Matthes, S and Renner, ED and Schultz, K and Traidl-Hoffmann, C and Duchna, HW and Behr, J and Schmude, J and Huber, RM and Milger, K}, title = {Perception of climate change in patients with chronic lung disease.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {e0186632}, pmid = {29045479}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Perception ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/*psychology ; Rhinitis, Allergic/diagnosis ; Statistics, Nonparametric ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change affects human health. The respective consequences are predicted to increase in the future. Patients with chronic lung disease are particularly vulnerable to the involved environmental alterations. However, their subjective perception and reactions to these alterations remain unknown.<br><br>METHODS: In this pilot study, we surveyed 172 adult patients who underwent pulmonary rehabilitation and 832 adult tourists without lung disease in the alpine region about their perception of being affected by climate change and their potential reaction to specific consequences. The patients' survey also contained the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) to rate the severity of symptoms.<br><br>RESULTS: Most of the patients stated asthma (73.8%), COPD (9.3%) or both (11.0%) as underlying disease while 5.8% suffered from other chronic lung diseases. Patients and tourists feel equally affected by current climate change in general, while allergic subjects in both groups feel significantly more affected (p = 0.04). The severity of symptoms assessed by CAT correlates with the degree of feeling affected (p<0.01). The main disturbing consequences for patients are decreased air quality, increasing numbers of ticks and mosquitos and a rising risk for allergy and extreme weather events such as thunderstroms, while tourists are less disturbed by these factors. Increasing number of heat-days is of little concern to both groups.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Overall patients are more sensitive to health-related consequences of climate change. Yet, the hazard of heat-days seems underestimated and awareness should be raised.}, }
@article {pmid29044944, year = {2018}, author = {Lustenhouwer, N and Wilschut, RA and Williams, JL and van der Putten, WH and Levine, JM}, title = {Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {e534-e544}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13947}, pmid = {29044944}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Flowers/*genetics/*physiology ; Phenotype ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/*genetics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species' current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species' ability to shift their range with climate change may therefore depend on how populations evolve in response to such novel environmental conditions. However, due to the recent nature of thus far observed range expansions, the role of rapid adaptation during climate change migration is only beginning to be understood. Here, we evaluated evolution during the recent native range expansion of the annual plant Dittrichia graveolens, which is spreading northward in Europe from the Mediterranean region. We examined genetically based differentiation between core and edge populations in their phenology, a trait that is likely under selection with shorter growing seasons and greater seasonality at northern latitudes. In parallel common garden experiments at range edges in Switzerland and the Netherlands, we grew plants from Dutch, Swiss, and central and southern French populations. Population genetic analysis following RAD-sequencing of these populations supported the hypothesized central France origins of the Swiss and Dutch range edge populations. We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to 4 weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread.}, }
@article {pmid29044545, year = {2018}, author = {Huang, Z and Footitt, S and Tang, A and Finch-Savage, WE}, title = {Predicted global warming scenarios impact on the mother plant to alter seed dormancy and germination behaviour in Arabidopsis.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {187-197}, doi = {10.1111/pce.13082}, pmid = {29044545}, issn = {1365-3040}, mesh = {Arabidopsis/*growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Germination ; *Global Warming ; Nitrates/metabolism ; Plant Development ; *Plant Dormancy ; Seedlings/physiology ; Seeds/growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Seed characteristics are key components of plant fitness that are influenced by temperature in their maternal environment, and temperature will change with global warming. To study the effect of such temperature changes, Arabidopsis thaliana plants were grown to produce seeds along a uniquely designed polyethylene tunnel having a thermal gradient reflecting local global warming predictions. Plants therefore experienced the same variations in temperature and light conditions but different mean temperatures. A range of seed-related plant fitness estimates were measured. There were dramatic non-linear temperature effects on the germination behaviour in two contrasting ecotypes. Maternal temperatures lower than 15-16 °C resulted in significantly greater primary dormancy. In addition, the impact of nitrate in the growing media on dormancy was shown only by seeds produced below 15-16 °C. However, there were no consistent effects on seed yield, number, or size. Effects on germination behaviour were shown to be a species characteristic responding to temperature and not time of year. Elevating temperature above this critical value during seed development has the potential to dramatically alter the timing of subsequent seed germination and the proportion entering the soil seed bank. This has potential consequences for the whole plant life cycle and species fitness.}, }
@article {pmid29043571, year = {2017}, author = {Zahmatkesh, Z and Karamouz, M}, title = {An uncertainty-based framework to quantifying climate change impacts on coastal flood vulnerability: case study of New York City.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {189}, number = {11}, pages = {567}, pmid = {29043571}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Disasters ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods/standards ; Floods/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forecasting ; New York City ; Probability ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The continued development efforts around the world, growing population, and the increased probability of occurrence of extreme hydrologic events have adversely affected natural and built environments. Flood damages and loss of lives from the devastating storms, such as Irene and Sandy on the East Coast of the USA, are examples of the vulnerability to flooding that even developed countries have to face. The odds of coastal flooding disasters have been increased due to accelerated sea level rise, climate change impacts, and communities' interest to live near the coastlines. Climate change, for instance, is becoming a major threat to sustainable development because of its adverse impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Effective management strategies are thus required for flood vulnerability reduction and disaster preparedness. This paper is an extension to the flood resilience studies in the New York City coastal watershed. Here, a framework is proposed to quantify coastal flood vulnerability while accounting for climate change impacts. To do so, a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach that combines watershed characteristics (factors) and their weights is proposed to quantify flood vulnerability. Among the watershed characteristics, potential variation in the hydrologic factors under climate change impacts is modeled utilizing the general circulation models' (GCMs) outputs. The considered factors include rainfall, extreme water level, and sea level rise that exacerbate flood vulnerability through increasing exposure and susceptibility to flooding. Uncertainty in the weights as well as values of factors is incorporated in the analysis using the Monte Carlo (MC) sampling method by selecting the best-fitted distributions to the parameters with random nature. A number of low impact development (LID) measures are then proposed to improve watershed adaptive capacity to deal with coastal flooding. Potential range of current and future vulnerability to flooding is estimated with and without consideration of climate change impacts and after implementation of LIDs. Results show that climate change has the potential to increase rainfall intensity, flood volume, floodplain extent, and flood depth in the watershed. The results also reveal that improving system resilience by reinforcing the adaptation capacity through implementing LIDs could mitigate flood vulnerability. Moreover, the results indicate the significant effect of uncertainties, arising from the factors' weights as well as climate change, impacts modeling approach, on quantifying flood vulnerability. This study underlines the importance of developing applicable schemes to quantify coastal flood vulnerability for evolving future responses to adverse impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29043051, year = {2017}, author = {Sivadasan, U and Randriamanana, T and Chenhao, C and Virjamo, V and Nybakken, L and Julkunen-Tiitto, R}, title = {Effect of climate change on bud phenology of young aspen plants (Populus tremula. L).}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {19}, pages = {7998-8007}, pmid = {29043051}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Boreal tree species are excellent tools for studying tolerance to climate change. Bud phenology is a trait, which is highly sensitive to environmental fluctuations and thus useful for climate change investigations. However, experimental studies of bud phenology under simulated climate change outdoors are deficient. We conducted a multifactorial field experiment with single (T, UVA, UVB) and combined treatments (UVA+T, UVB+T) of elevated temperature (T, +2°C) and ultraviolet-B radiation (+30% UVB) in order to examine their impact on both male and female genotypes of aspen (Populus tremula L.). This study focuses on the effect of the treatments in years 2 and 3 after planting (2013, 2014) and follows how bud phenology is adapting in year 4 (2015), when the treatments were discontinued. Moreover, the effect of bud removal was recorded. We found that elevated temperature played a key role in delaying bud set and forcing bud break in intact individuals, as well as slightly delaying bud break in bud-removed individuals. UVB delayed the bud break in bud-removed males. In addition, both UVA and UVB interacted with temperature in year 3 and even in year 4, when the treatments were off, but only in male individuals. Axillary bud removal forced both bud break and bud set under combined treatments (UVA+T, UVB+T) and delayed both under individual treatments (T, UVB). In conclusion, male aspens were more responsive to the treatments than females and that effect of elevated temperature and UV radiation on bud set and bud break of aspen is not disappearing over 4-year study period.}, }
@article {pmid29043046, year = {2017}, author = {Jochner, M and Bugmann, H and Nötzli, M and Bigler, C}, title = {Among-tree variability and feedback effects result in different growth responses to climate change at the upper treeline in the Swiss Alps.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {19}, pages = {7937-7953}, pmid = {29043046}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Upper treeline ecotones are important life form boundaries and particularly sensitive to a warming climate. Changes in growth conditions at these ecotones have wide-ranging implications for the provision of ecosystem services in densely populated mountain regions like the European Alps. We quantify climate effects on short- and long-term tree growth responses, focusing on among-tree variability and potential feedback effects. Although among-tree variability is thought to be substantial, it has not been considered systematically yet in studies on growth-climate relationships. We compiled tree-ring data including almost 600 trees of major treeline species (Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus cembra, and Pinus mugo) from three climate regions of the Swiss Alps. We further acquired tree size distribution data using unmanned aerial vehicles. To account for among-tree variability, we employed information-theoretic model selections based on linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) with flexible choice of monthly temperature effects on growth. We isolated long-term trends in ring-width indices (RWI) in interaction with elevation. The LMMs revealed substantial amounts of previously unquantified among-tree variability, indicating different strategies of single trees regarding when and to what extent to invest assimilates into growth. Furthermore, the LMMs indicated strongly positive temperature effects on growth during short summer periods across all species, and significant contributions of fall (L. decidua) and current year's spring (L. decidua, P. abies). In the longer term, all species showed consistently positive RWI trends at highest elevations, but different patterns with decreasing elevation. L. decidua exhibited even negative RWI trends compared to the highest treeline sites, whereas P. abies, P. cembra, and P. mugo showed steeper or flatter trends with decreasing elevation. This does not only reflect effects of ameliorated climate conditions on tree growth over time, but also reveals first signs of long-suspected negative and positive feedback of climate change on stand dynamics at treeline.}, }
@article {pmid29040273, year = {2017}, author = {Zhu, G and Fan, J and Peterson, AT}, title = {Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {e0006021}, pmid = {29040273}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Risk Factors ; *Schistosoma japonicum ; Schistosomiasis japonica/*epidemiology/transmission ; Snails/*parasitology/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to channel fresh water from the Yangtze River north to more industrialized parts of China. An important question is whether future climate change and dispersal via the SNWD may synergistically favor a northward expansion of species involved in hosting and transmitting schistosomiasis in China, specifically the intermediate host, Oncomelania hupensis.<br><br>In this study, climate spaces occupied by the four subspecies of O. hupensis (O. h. hupensis, O. h. robertsoni, O. h. guangxiensis and O. h. tangi) were estimated, and niche conservatism tested among each pair of subspecies. Fine-tuned Maxent (fMaxent) and ensemble models were used to anticipate potential distributions of O. hupensis under future climate change scenarios. We were largely unable to reject the null hypothesis that climatic niches are conserved among the four subspecies, so factors other than climate appear to account for the divergence of O. hupensis populations across mainland China. Both model approaches indicated increased suitability and range expansion in O. h. hupensis in the future; an eastward and northward shift in O. h. robertsioni and O. h. guangxiensis, respectively; and relative distributional stability in O. h. gangi.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The southern parts of the Central Route of SNWD will coincide with suitable areas for O. h. hupensis in 2050-2060; its suitable areas will also expand northward along the southern parts of the Eastern Route by 2080-2090. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis along the southern Central Route and Eastern Route of the SNWD in a future, warmer China.}, }
@article {pmid29036214, year = {2017}, author = {Montemayor, SI and Melo, MC and Scattolini, MC and Pocco, ME and Del Río, MG and Dellapé, G and Scheibler, EE and Roig, SA and Cazorla, CG and Dellapé, PM}, title = {The fate of endemic insects of the Andean region under the effect of global warming.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {e0186655}, pmid = {29036214}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; *Insecta ; *Models, Statistical ; South America ; }, abstract = {Three independent but complementary lines of research have provided evidence for the recognition of refugia: paleontology, phylogeography and species distributional modelling (SDM). SDM assesses the ecological requirements of a species based on its known occurrences and enables its distribution to be projected on past climatological reconstructions. One advantage over the other two approaches is that it provides an explicit link to environment and geography, thereby enabling the analysis of a large number of taxa in the search for more general refugia patterns. We propose a methodology for using SDM to recognize biogeographical patterns of endemic insects from Southern South America. We built species distributional models for 59 insect species using Maxent. The species analyzed in the study have narrow niche breadth and were classified into four assemblages according to the ecoregion they inhabit. Models were built for the Late Pleistocene, Mid-Holocene and Present. Through the procedure developed for this study we used the models to recognize: Late Pleistocene refugia; areas with high species richness during all three periods; climatically constant areas (in situ refugia); consistent patterns among in situ refugia, Pleistocene refugia and current distribution of endemic species. We recognized two adjacent Pleistocene refugia with distinct climates; four in situ refugia, some of which are undergoing a process of fragmentation and retraction or enlargement. Interestingly, we found a congruent pattern among in situ refugia, Pleistocene refugia and endemic species. Our results seem to be consistent with the idea that long-term climate stability is known to have a key role in promoting persistence of biodiversity in an area. Our Pleistocene and in situ refugia are consistent with refugia identified in studies focusing on different taxa and applying other methodologies, showing that the method developed can be used to identify such areas and prove their importance for conservation.}, }
@article {pmid29034990, year = {2018}, author = {Liang, Y and Duveneck, MJ and Gustafson, EJ and Serra-Diaz, JM and Thompson, JR}, title = {How disturbance, competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {e335-e351}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13847}, pmid = {29034990}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Demography ; *Forests ; New England ; Seeds ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to cause geographic shifts in tree species' ranges, but such shifts may not keep pace with climate changes because seed dispersal distances are often limited and competition-induced changes in community composition can be relatively slow. Disturbances may speed changes in community composition, but the interactions among climate change, disturbance and competitive interactions to produce range shifts are poorly understood. We used a physiologically based mechanistic landscape model to study these interactions in the northeastern United States. We designed a series of disturbance scenarios to represent varied disturbance regimes in terms of both disturbance extent and intensity. We simulated forest succession by incorporating climate change under a high-emissions future, disturbances, seed dispersal, and competition using the landscape model parameterized with forest inventory data. Tree species range boundary shifts in the next century were quantified as the change in the location of the 5th (the trailing edge) and 95th (the leading edge) percentiles of the spatial distribution of simulated species. Simulated tree species range boundary shifts in New England over the next century were far below (usually <20 km) that required to track the velocity of temperature change (usually more than 110 km over 100 years) under a high-emissions scenario. Simulated species` ranges shifted northward at both the leading edge (northern boundary) and trailing edge (southern boundary). Disturbances may expedite species' recruitment into new sites, but they had little effect on the velocity of simulated range boundary shifts. Range shifts at the trailing edge tended to be associated with photosynthetic capacity, competitive ability for light and seed dispersal ability, whereas shifts at the leading edge were associated only with photosynthetic capacity and competition for light. This study underscores the importance of understanding the role of interspecific competition and disturbance when studying tree range shifts.}, }
@article {pmid29033175, year = {2018}, author = {Li, Y and Li, G and Zeng, Q and Liang, F and Pan, X}, title = {Projecting temperature-related years of life lost under different climate change scenarios in one temperate megacity, China.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {233}, number = {}, pages = {1068-1075}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2017.10.008}, pmid = {29033175}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {China/epidemiology ; Cities/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Environmental Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Policy ; Female ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Life Expectancy/*trends ; Linear Models ; Male ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Temperature has been associated with population health, but few studies have projected the future temperature-related years of life lost attributable to climate change. To project future temperature-related disease burden in Tianjin, we selected years of life lost (YLL) as the dependent variable to explore YLL attributable to climate change. A generalized linear model (GLM) and distributed lag non-linear model were combined to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature on the YLL of non-accidental mortality. Then, we calculated the YLL changes attributable to future climate scenarios in 2055 and 2090. The relationships of daily mean temperature with the YLL of non-accident mortality were basically U-shaped. Both the daily mean temperature increase on high-temperature days and its drop on low-temperature days caused an increase of YLL and non-accidental deaths. The temperature-related YLL will worsen if future climate change exceeds 2 °C. In addition, the adverse effects of extreme temperature on YLL occurred more quickly than that of the overall temperature. The impact of low temperature was greater than that of high temperature. Men were vulnerable to high temperature compared with women. This analysis highlights that the government should formulate environmental policies to reach the Paris Agreement goal.}, }
@article {pmid29031011, year = {2018}, author = {Pacifici, M and Visconti, P and Rondinini, C}, title = {A framework for the identification of hotspots of climate change risk for mammals.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {1626-1636}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13942}, pmid = {29031011}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Mammals/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {As rates of global warming increase rapidly, identifying species at risk of decline due to climate impacts and the factors affecting this risk have become key challenges in ecology and conservation biology. Here, we present a framework for assessing three components of climate-related risk for species: vulnerability, exposure and hazard. We used the relationship between the observed response of species to climate change and a set of intrinsic traits (e.g. weaning age) and extrinsic factors (e.g. precipitation seasonality within a species geographic range) to predict, respectively, the vulnerability and exposure of all data-sufficient terrestrial non-volant mammals (3,953 species). Combining this information with hazard (the magnitude of projected climate change within a species geographic range), we identified global hotspots of species at risk from climate change that includes the western Amazon basin, south-western Kenya, north-eastern Tanzania, north-eastern South Africa, Yunnan province in China, and mountain chains in Papua-New Guinea. Our framework identifies priority areas for monitoring climate change effects on species and directing climate mitigation actions for biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid29027426, year = {2017}, author = {Yang, HF and Zheng, JH and Jia, XG and Li, XJ}, title = {[Projection of potential geographic distribution of Apocynum venetum under climate change in northern China].}, journal = {Zhongguo Zhong yao za zhi = Zhongguo zhongyao zazhi = China journal of Chinese materia medica}, volume = {42}, number = {6}, pages = {1118-1124}, doi = {10.19540/j.cnki.cjcmm.2017.0033}, pmid = {29027426}, issn = {1001-5302}, mesh = {Apocynum/*growth &amp; development ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; omega-Conotoxin GVIA ; }, abstract = {Apocynum venetum belongs to apocynaceae and is a perennial medicinal plant, its stem is an important textile raw materials. The projection of potential geographic distribution of A. venetum has an important significance for the protection and sustainable utilization of the plant. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of A. venetum and to project how climate change would affect its geographic distribution. The projection geographic distribution of A. venetum under current bioclimatic conditions in northern China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 44 locations and 19 bioclimatic parameters. The future distributions of A. venetum were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The result showed that min air temperature of the coldest month, annual mean air temperature, precipitation of the coldest quarter and mean air temperature of the wettest quarter dominated the geographic distribution of A. venetum. Under current climate, the suitable habitats of A. venetum is 11.94% in China, the suitable habitats are mainly located in the middle of Xinjiang, in the northern part of Gansu, in the southern part of Neimeng, in the northern part of Ningxia, in the middle and northern part of Shaanxi, in the southern part of Shanxi, in the middle and northern part of Henan, in the middle and southern part of Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin, in the southern part of Liaoning and part of Beijing. From 2050 to 2070, the model outputs indicated that the suitable habitats of A. venetum would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.}, }
@article {pmid29026169, year = {2017}, author = {Sultana, S and Baumgartner, JB and Dominiak, BC and Royer, JE and Beaumont, LJ}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for the Queensland fruit fly.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {13025}, pmid = {29026169}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Queensland ; Tephritidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is a major factor driving shifts in the distributions of pests and invasive species. The Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Qfly), is the most economically damaging insect pest of Australia's horticultural industry, and its management is a key priority for plant protection and biosecurity. Identifying the extent to which climate change may alter the distribution of suitable habitat for Qfly is important for the development and continuation of effective monitoring programs, phytosanitary measures, and management strategies. We used Maxent, a species distribution model, to map suitable habitat for Qfly under current climate, and six climate scenarios for 2030, 2050 and 2070. Our results highlight that south-western Australia, northern regions of the Northern Territory, eastern Queensland, and much of south-eastern Australia are currently suitable for Qfly. This includes southern Victoria and eastern Tasmania, which are currently free of breeding populations. There is substantial agreement across future climate scenarios that most areas currently suitable will remain so until at least 2070. Our projections provide an initial estimate of the potential exposure of Australia's horticultural industry to Qfly as climate changes, highlighting the need for long-term vigilance across southern Australia to prevent further range expansion of this species.}, }
@article {pmid29026153, year = {2017}, author = {Williamson, CE and Madronich, S and Lal, A and Zepp, RG and Lucas, RM and Overholt, EP and Rose, KC and Schladow, SG and Lee-Taylor, J}, title = {Climate change-induced increases in precipitation are reducing the potential for solar ultraviolet radiation to inactivate pathogens in surface waters.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {13033}, pmid = {29026153}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Lakes/microbiology/parasitology ; Models, Theoretical ; Organic Chemicals/analysis ; *Rain ; Rivers/chemistry ; Seasons ; *Solar Energy ; Surface Properties ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; *Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is accelerating the release of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to inland and coastal waters through increases in precipitation, thawing of permafrost, and changes in vegetation. Our modeling approach suggests that the selective absorption of ultraviolet radiation (UV) by DOM decreases the valuable ecosystem service wherein sunlight inactivates waterborne pathogens. Here we highlight the sensitivity of waterborne pathogens of humans and wildlife to solar UV, and use the DNA action spectrum to model how differences in water transparency and incident sunlight alter the ability of UV to inactivate waterborne pathogens. A case study demonstrates how heavy precipitation events can reduce the solar inactivation potential in Lake Michigan, which provides drinking water to over 10 million people. These data suggest that widespread increases in DOM and consequent browning of surface waters reduce the potential for solar UV inactivation of pathogens, and increase exposure to infectious diseases in humans and wildlife.}, }
@article {pmid29024396, year = {2017}, author = {Leyva, EWA and Beaman, A and Davidson, PM}, title = {Health Impact of Climate Change in Older People: An Integrative Review and Implications for Nursing.}, journal = {Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing}, volume = {49}, number = {6}, pages = {670-678}, doi = {10.1111/jnu.12346}, pmid = {29024396}, issn = {1547-5069}, mesh = {Aged ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: Older people account for the highest proportion of mortality from extreme weather events associated with climate change. This article aims to describe the health impacts of climate change on older people.<br><br>TYPE OF STUDY: An integrative review was conducted with 30 studies retrieved from PubMed, EBSCO, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) on climate stressors, determinants of resilient capacity, risk factors, and health outcomes.<br><br>FINDINGS: Heat, temperature variability, and air pollution increase mortality risk in older people, especially from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Floods are linked with increasing incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety. Facing these adversities, older people exhibit both vulnerability and resilience.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Research gaps exist in understanding the full spectrum of the resilience experience of older people, and appreciating areas wherein nursing can play a pivotal role.<br><br>CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Recognizing the vulnerabilities of older people in the context of climate change is important. Identifying opportunities to promote resilience is an important focus for nurses to develop tailored and targeted nursing interventions.}, }
@article {pmid29024256, year = {2018}, author = {Donelson, JM and Salinas, S and Munday, PL and Shama, LNS}, title = {Transgenerational plasticity and climate change experiments: Where do we go from here?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {13-34}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13903}, pmid = {29024256}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity, both within and across generations, is an important mechanism that organisms use to cope with rapid climate change. While an increasing number of studies show that plasticity across generations (transgenerational plasticity or TGP) may occur, we have limited understanding of key aspects of TGP, such as the environmental conditions that may promote it, its relationship to within-generation plasticity (WGP) and its role in evolutionary potential. In this review, we consider how the detection of TGP in climate change experiments is affected by the predictability of environmental variation, as well as the timing and magnitude of environmental change cues applied. We also discuss the need to design experiments that are able to distinguish TGP from selection and TGP from WGP in multigenerational experiments. We conclude by suggesting future research directions that build on the knowledge to date and admit the limitations that exist, which will depend on the way environmental change is simulated and the type of experimental design used. Such an approach will open up this burgeoning area of research to a wider variety of organisms and allow better predictive capacity of the role of TGP in the response of organisms to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid29024142, year = {2017}, author = {Shirley, MH and Austin, JD}, title = {Did Late Pleistocene climate change result in parallel genetic structure and demographic bottlenecks in sympatric Central African crocodiles, Mecistops and Osteolaemus?.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {22}, pages = {6463-6477}, doi = {10.1111/mec.14378}, pmid = {29024142}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Africa, Central ; Alligators and Crocodiles/*classification/genetics ; Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Biological Evolution ; Cell Nucleus/genetics ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; *Ecosystem ; Genetics, Population ; Genotype ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Phylogeography ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Sympatry ; }, abstract = {The mid-Holocene has had profound demographic impacts on wildlife on the African continent, although there is little known about the impacts on species from Central Africa. Understanding the impacts of climate change on codistributed species can enhance our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and for formulating restoration objectives. We took a multigenome comparative approach to examine the phylogeographic structure of two poorly known Central African crocodile species-Mecistops sp. aff. cataphractus and Osteolaemus tetraspis. In addition, we conducted coalescent-based demographic reconstructions to test the hypothesis that population decline was driven by climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum, vs. more recent anthropogenic pressures. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model to reconstruct demographic history, we show that both species had dramatic declines (>97%) in effective population size in the 'period following the Last Glacial Maximum 1,500-18,000 YBP. Identification of genetic structuring showed both species have similar regional structure corresponding to major geological features (i.e., hydrologic basin) and that small observed differences between them are best explained by the differences in their ecology and the likely impact that climate change had on their habitat needs. Our results support our hypothesis that climatic effects, presumably on forest and wetland habitat, had a congruent negative impact on both species.}, }
@article {pmid29021590, year = {2017}, author = {Ofori, BY and Stow, AJ and Baumgartner, JB and Beaumont, LJ}, title = {Influence of adaptive capacity on the outcome of climate change vulnerability assessment.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {12979}, pmid = {29021590}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Lizards/physiology ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) has become a mainstay conservation decision support tool. CCVAs are recommended to incorporate three elements of vulnerability - exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity - yet, lack of data frequently leads to the latter being excluded. Further, weighted or unweighted scoring schemes, based on expert opinion, may be applied. Comparisons of these approaches are rare. In a CCVA for 17 Australian lizard species, we show that membership within three vulnerability categories (low, medium and high) generally remained similar regardless of the framework or scoring scheme. There was one exception however, where, under the warm/dry scenario for 2070, including adaptive capacity lead to five fewer species being classified as highly vulnerable. Two species, Eulamprus leuraensis and E. kosciuskoi, were consistently ranked the most vulnerable, primarily due to projected losses in climatically suitable habitat, narrow thermal tolerance and specialist habitat requirements. Our findings provide relevant information for prioritizing target species for conservation and choosing appropriate conservation actions. We conclude that for the species included in this study, the framework and scoring scheme used had little impact on the identification of the most vulnerable species. We caution, however, that this outcome may not apply to other taxa or regions.}, }
@article {pmid29020041, year = {2017}, author = {Purse, BV and Masante, D and Golding, N and Pigott, D and Day, JC and Ibañez-Bernal, S and Kolb, M and Jones, L}, title = {How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {e0183583}, pmid = {29020041}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Disease Vectors ; Environment ; Geography ; Incidence ; Leishmaniasis/*epidemiology ; Models, Biological ; Probability ; Socioeconomic Factors ; South America ; }, abstract = {The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas-ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways.}, }
@article {pmid29019973, year = {2017}, author = {Hodson, R}, title = {Climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {550}, number = {7675}, pages = {S53}, doi = {10.1038/550S53a}, pmid = {29019973}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Aquatic Organisms/drug effects ; Carbon Dioxide/adverse effects/analysis/isolation &amp; purification ; Environmental Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Global Warming/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Human Activities ; Politics ; Research Personnel/psychology ; }, }
@article {pmid29019772, year = {2017}, author = {Bell, ML}, title = {Advancing Science and Public Health Practice on Climate Change and Health Justice.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {107}, number = {11}, pages = {1687}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2017.304066}, pmid = {29019772}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Health Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; *Politics ; Public Health Administration/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Public Health Practice/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Social Justice/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid29016928, year = {2017}, author = {Fodor, N and Challinor, A and Droutsas, I and Ramirez-Villegas, J and Zabel, F and Koehler, AK and Foyer, CH}, title = {Integrating Plant Science and Crop Modeling: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Soybean and Maize Production.}, journal = {Plant &amp; cell physiology}, volume = {58}, number = {11}, pages = {1833-1847}, pmid = {29016928}, issn = {1471-9053}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Glycine max/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {Increasing global CO2 emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO2 world. Crop model inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modeling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. When CO2 fertilization effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarize the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production.}, }
@article {pmid28991973, year = {2017}, author = {Forber, KJ and Ockenden, MC and Wearing, C and Hollaway, MJ and Falloon, PD and Kahana, R and Villamizar, ML and Zhou, JG and Withers, PJA and Beven, KJ and Collins, AL and Evans, R and Hiscock, KM and Macleod, CJA and Haygarth, PM}, title = {Determining the Effect of Drying Time on Phosphorus Solubilization from Three Agricultural Soils under Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {1131-1136}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2017.04.0144}, pmid = {28991973}, issn = {0047-2425}, support = {BBS/E/C/000I0330/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Phosphorus/*analysis ; Soil/*chemistry ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate projections for the future indicate that the United Kingdom will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, bringing longer dry periods followed by rewetting. This will result in changes in phosphorus (P) mobilization patterns that will influence the transfer of P from land to water. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the future patterns of drying-rewetting will affect the amount of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) solubilized from soil. Estimations of dry period characteristics (duration and temperature) under current and predicted climate were determined using data from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator tool. Three soils (sieved <2 mm), collected from two regions of the United Kingdom with different soils and farm systems, were dried at 25°C for periods of 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 60, and 90 d, then subsequently rewetted (50 mL over 2 h). The solubilized leachate was collected and analyzed for SRP. In the 2050s, warm period temperature extremes >25°C are predicted in some places and dry periods of 30 to 90 d extremes are predicted. Combining the frequency of projected dry periods with the SRP concentration in leachate suggests that this may result overall in increased mobilization of P; however, critical breakpoints of 6.9 to 14.5 d dry occur wherein up to 28% more SRP can be solubilized following a rapid rewetting event. The precise cause of this increase could not be identified and warrants further investigation as the process is not currently included in P transfer models.}, }
@article {pmid28991410, year = {2018}, author = {Dyderski, MK and Paź, S and Frelich, LE and Jagodziński, AM}, title = {How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {1150-1163}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13925}, pmid = {28991410}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Magnoliopsida/classification/*physiology ; Tracheophyta/classification/*physiology ; Trees/*classification/physiology ; }, abstract = {Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation.}, }
@article {pmid28991399, year = {2018}, author = {Bailey, VL and Bond-Lamberty, B and DeAngelis, K and Grandy, AS and Hawkes, CV and Heckman, K and Lajtha, K and Phillips, RP and Sulman, BN and Todd-Brown, KEO and Wallenstein, MD}, title = {Soil carbon cycling proxies: Understanding their critical role in predicting climate change feedbacks.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {895-905}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13926}, pmid = {28991399}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon/*chemistry/metabolism ; *Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Soil/*chemistry ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {The complexity of processes and interactions that drive soil C dynamics necessitate the use of proxy variables to represent soil characteristics that cannot be directly measured (correlative proxies), or that aggregate information about multiple soil characteristics into one variable (integrative proxies). These proxies have proven useful for understanding the soil C cycle, which is highly variable in both space and time, and are now being used to make predictions of the fate and persistence of C under future climate scenarios. However, the C pools and processes that proxies represent must be thoughtfully considered in order to minimize uncertainties in empirical understanding. This is necessary to capture the full value of a proxy in model parameters and in model outcomes. Here, we provide specific examples of proxy variables that could improve decision-making, and modeling skill, while also encouraging continued work on their mechanistic underpinnings. We explore the use of three common soil proxies used to study soil C cycling: metabolic quotient, clay content, and physical fractionation. We also consider how emerging data types, such as genome-sequence data, can serve as proxies for microbial community activities. By examining some broad assumptions in soil C cycling with the proxies already in use, we can develop new hypotheses and specify criteria for new and needed proxies.}, }
@article {pmid28989943, year = {2017}, author = {Blanc, E and Caron, J and Fant, C and Monier, E}, title = {Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields.}, journal = {Earth's future}, volume = {5}, number = {8}, pages = {877-892}, pmid = {28989943}, issn = {2328-4277}, abstract = {While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.}, }
@article {pmid28988853, year = {2017}, author = {Davis, KL and Coleman, MA and Connell, SD and Russell, BD and Gillanders, BM and Kelaher, BP}, title = {Ecological performance of construction materials subject to ocean climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {131}, number = {}, pages = {177-182}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2017.09.011}, pmid = {28988853}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Construction Materials/*analysis ; Materials Testing ; Oceans and Seas ; Polyethylene ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Artificial structures will be increasingly utilized to protect coastal infrastructure from sea-level rise and storms associated with climate change. Although it is well documented that the materials comprising artificial structures influence the composition of organisms that use them as habitat, little is known about how these materials may chemically react with changing seawater conditions, and what effects this will have on associated biota. We investigated the effects of ocean warming, acidification, and type of coastal infrastructure material on algal turfs. Seawater acidification resulted in greater covers of turf, though this effect was counteracted by elevated temperatures. Concrete supported a greater cover of turf than granite or high-density polyethylene (HDPE) under all temperature and pH treatments, with the greatest covers occurring under simulated ocean acidification. Furthermore, photosynthetic efficiency under acidification was greater on concrete substratum compared to all other materials and treatment combinations. These results demonstrate the capacity to maximise ecological benefits whilst still meeting local management objectives when engineering coastal defense structures by selecting materials that are appropriate in an ocean change context. Therefore, mitigation efforts to offset impacts from sea-level rise and storms can also be engineered to alter, or even reduce, the effects of climatic change on biological assemblages.}, }
@article {pmid28985449, year = {2018}, author = {Giménez-Benavides, L and Escudero, A and García-Camacho, R and García-Fernández, A and Iriondo, JM and Lara-Romero, C and Morente-López, J}, title = {How does climate change affect regeneration of Mediterranean high-mountain plants? An integration and synthesis of current knowledge.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {20 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {50-62}, doi = {10.1111/plb.12643}, pmid = {28985449}, issn = {1438-8677}, mesh = {*Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Mediterranean Region ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Mediterranean mountains are extraordinarily diverse and hold a high proportion of endemic plants, but they are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and most species distribution models project drastic changes in community composition. Retrospective studies and long-term monitoring also highlight that Mediterranean high-mountain plants are suffering severe range contractions. The aim of this work is to review the current knowledge of climate change impacts on the process of plant regeneration by seed in Mediterranean high-mountain plants, by combining available information from observational and experimental studies. We also discuss some processes that may provide resilience against changing environmental conditions and suggest some research priorities for the future. With some exceptions, there is still little evidence of the direct effects of climate change on pollination and reproductive success of Mediterranean high-mountain plants, and most works are observational and/or centred only in the post-dispersal stages (germination and establishment). The great majority of studies agree that the characteristic summer drought and the extreme heatwaves, which are projected to be more intense in the future, are the most limiting factors for the regeneration process. However, there is an urgent need for studies combining elevational gradient approaches with experimental manipulations of temperature and drought to confirm the magnitude and variability of species' responses. There is also limited knowledge about the ability of Mediterranean high-mountain plants to cope with climate change through phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. This could be achieved by performing common garden and reciprocal translocation experiments with species differing in life history traits.}, }
@article {pmid28984106, year = {2018}, author = {Levesque, E and Compagnon, P}, title = {Climate change in liver preservation?.}, journal = {Minerva anestesiologica}, volume = {84}, number = {2}, pages = {154-156}, doi = {10.23736/S0375-9393.17.12397-7}, pmid = {28984106}, issn = {1827-1596}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Liver ; *Liver Transplantation ; }, }
@article {pmid28983120, year = {2017}, author = {Kolanowska, M and Kras, M and Lipińska, M and Mystkowska, K and Szlachetko, DL and Naczk, AM}, title = {Global warming not so harmful for all plants - response of holomycotrophic orchid species for the future climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {12704}, pmid = {28983120}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Orchidaceae/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Current and expected changes in global climate are major threat for biological diversity affecting individuals, communities and ecosystems. However, there is no general trend in the plants response to the climate change. The aim of present study was to evaluate impact of the future climate changes on the distribution of holomycotrophic orchid species using ecological niche modeling approach. Three different scenarios of future climate changes were tested to obtain the most comprehensive insight in the possible habitat loss of 16 holomycotrophic orchids. The extinction of Cephalanthera austiniae was predicted in all analyses. The coverage of suitable niches of Pogoniopsis schenckii will decrease to 1-30% of its current extent. The reduction of at least 50% of climatic niche of Erythrorchis cassythoides and Limodorum abortivum will be observed. In turn, the coverage of suitable niches of Hexalectris spicata, Uleiorchis ulaei and Wullschlaegelia calcarata may be even 16-74 times larger than in the present time. The conducted niche modeling and analysis of the similarity of their climatic tolerance showed instead that the future modification of the coverage of their suitable niches will not be unified and the future climate changes may be not so harmful for holomycotrophic orchids as expected.}, }
@article {pmid28983118, year = {2017}, author = {Li, R and Xu, M and Powers, R and Zhao, F and Jetz, W and Wen, H and Sheng, Q}, title = {Quantifying the evidence for co-benefits between species conservation and climate change mitigation in giant panda habitats.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {12705}, pmid = {28983118}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Forests ; Ursidae/metabolism/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Conservationists strive for practical, cost-effective management solutions to forest-based species conservation and climate change mitigation. However, this is compromised by insufficient information about the effectiveness of protected areas in increasing carbon storage, and the co-benefits of species and carbon conservation remain poorly understood. Here, we present the first rigorous quantitative assessment of the roles of giant panda nature reserves (NRs) in carbon sequestration, and explore the co-benefits of habitat conservation and climate change mitigation. Results show that more than 90% of the studied panda NRs are effective in increasing carbon storage, with the mean biomass carbon density of the whole NRs exhibiting a 4.2% higher growth rate compared with lands not declared as NRs over the period 1988-2012, while this effectiveness in carbon storage masks important patterns of spatial heterogeneity across the giant panda habitats. Moreover, the significant associations have been identified between biomass carbon density and panda's habitat suitability in ~85% NRs and at the NR level. These findings suggest that the planning for carbon and species conservation co-benefits would enhance the greatest return on limited conservation investments, which is a critical need for the giant panda after its conservation status has been downgraded from "endangered" to "vulnerable".}, }
@article {pmid28982778, year = {2017}, author = {Mirsaeidi, M and Javadzadeh, A and Campos, M}, title = {A risky political game with climate change.}, journal = {The European respiratory journal}, volume = {50}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1183/13993003.01145-2017}, pmid = {28982778}, issn = {1399-3003}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*prevention &amp; control ; Environmental Health/*organization &amp; administration ; Global Health/*trends ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid28982187, year = {2017}, author = {Geyer, J and Kreft, S and Jeltsch, F and Ibisch, PL}, title = {Assessing climate change-robustness of protected area management plans-The case of Germany.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {e0185972}, pmid = {28982187}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Germany ; }, abstract = {Protected areas are arguably the most important instrument of biodiversity conservation. To keep them fit under climate change, their management needs to be adapted to address related direct and indirect changes. In our study we focus on the adaptation of conservation management planning, evaluating management plans of 60 protected areas throughout Germany with regard to their climate change-robustness. First, climate change-robust conservation management was defined using 11 principles and 44 criteria, which followed an approach similar to sustainability standards. We then evaluated the performance of individual management plans concerning the climate change-robustness framework. We found that climate change-robustness of protected areas hardly exceeded 50 percent of the potential performance, with most plans ranking in the lower quarter. Most Natura 2000 protected areas, established under conservation legislation of the European Union, belong to the sites with especially poor performance, with lower values in smaller areas. In general, the individual principles showed very different rates of accordance with our principles, but similarly low intensity. Principles with generally higher performance values included holistic knowledge management, public accountability and acceptance as well as systemic and strategic coherence. Deficiencies were connected to dealing with the future and uncertainty. Lastly, we recommended the presented principles and criteria as essential guideposts that can be used as a checklist for working towards more climate change-robust planning.}, }
@article {pmid28980845, year = {2017}, author = {Khanna, SK}, title = {Global Perspectives on Climate Change, Gender, Ethnicity, Food taboos, and Local Knowledge.}, journal = {Ecology of food and nutrition}, volume = {56}, number = {5}, pages = {349-350}, doi = {10.1080/03670244.2017.1387401}, pmid = {28980845}, issn = {1543-5237}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Culture ; *Diet ; Ethnicity ; *Food Supply ; Gender Identity ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Taboo ; }, }
@article {pmid28978724, year = {2017}, author = {Klinger, DH and Levin, SA and Watson, JR}, title = {The growth of finfish in global open-ocean aquaculture under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {284}, number = {1864}, pages = {}, pmid = {28978724}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aquaculture ; Carbon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Perciformes/*growth &amp; development ; Salmo salar/*growth &amp; development ; Sea Bream/growth &amp; development ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Aquaculture production is projected to expand from land-based operations to the open ocean as demand for seafood grows and competition increases for inputs to land-based aquaculture, such as freshwater and suitable land. In contrast to land-based production, open-ocean aquaculture is constrained by oceanographic factors, such as current speeds and seawater temperature, which are dynamic in time and space, and cannot easily be controlled. As such, the potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production is tied to the physical state of the oceans. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the potential of open-ocean finfish aquaculture globally, given physical, biological and technological constraints. Finfish growth potential for three common aquaculture species representing different thermal guilds-Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) and cobia (Rachycentron canadum)-is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a high-resolution global climate model. Globally, there are ample areas that are physically suitable for fish growth and potential expansion of the nascent aquaculture industry. The effects of climate change are heterogeneous across species and regions, but areas with existing aquaculture industries are likely to see increases in growth rates. In areas where climate change results in reduced growth rates, adaptation measures, such as selective breeding, can probably offset potential production losses.}, }
@article {pmid28977817, year = {2018}, author = {An, R and Ji, M and Zhang, S}, title = {Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.}, journal = {Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {150-163}, doi = {10.1111/obr.12624}, pmid = {28977817}, issn = {1467-789X}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Energy Metabolism ; Feeding Behavior ; Food Supply ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Obesity/*epidemiology ; Sedentary Behavior ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity.}, }
@article {pmid28976626, year = {2018}, author = {Stephens, T and Wilson, SC and Cassidy, F and Bender, D and Gummer, D and Smith, DHV and Lloyd, N and McPherson, JM and Moehrenschlager, A}, title = {Climate change impacts on the conservation outlook of populations on the poleward periphery of species ranges: A case study of Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {836-847}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13922}, pmid = {28976626}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Male ; North America ; Population Dynamics ; Sciuridae/*physiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Given climate change, species' climatically suitable habitats are increasingly expected to shift poleward. Some imperilled populations towards the poleward edge of their species' range might therefore conceivably benefit from climate change. Interactions between climate and population dynamics may be complex, however, with climate exerting effects both indirectly via influence over food availability and more directly, via effects on physiology and its implications for survival and reproduction. A thorough understanding of these interactions is critical for effective conservation management. We therefore examine the relationship between climate, survival and reproduction in Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs, a threatened keystone species in an imperilled ecosystem at the northern edge of the species' range. Our analyses considered 8 years of annual mark-recapture data (2007-2014) in relation to growing degree days, precipitation, drought status and winter severity, as well as year, sex, age and body mass. Survival was strongly influenced by the interaction of drought and body mass class, and winter temperature severity. Female reproductive status was associated with the interaction of growing degree days and growing season precipitation, with spring precipitation and with winter temperature severity. Results related to body mass suggested that climatic variables exerted their effects via regulation of food availability with potential linked effects of food quality, immunological and behavioural implications, and predation risk. Predictions of future increases in drought conditions in North America's grassland ecosystems have raised concerns for the outlook of Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs. Insights gained from the analyses, however, point to mitigating species management options targeted at decoupling the mechanisms by which climate exerts its negative influence. Our approach highlights the importance of understanding the interaction between climate and population dynamics in peripheral populations whose viability might ultimately determine their species' ability to track climatically suitable space.}, }
@article {pmid28973826, year = {2018}, author = {White, KS and Gregovich, DP and Levi, T}, title = {Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {1136-1149}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13919}, pmid = {28973826}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Alaska ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Ruminants/*physiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change represents a primary threat to species persistence and biodiversity at a global scale. Cold adapted alpine species are especially sensitive to climate change and can offer key "early warning signs" about deleterious effects of predicted change. Among mountain ungulates, survival, a key determinant of demographic performance, may be influenced by future climate in complex, and possibly opposing ways. Demographic data collected from 447 mountain goats in 10 coastal Alaska, USA, populations over a 37-year time span indicated that survival is highest during low snowfall winters and cool summers. However, general circulation models (GCMs) predict future increase in summer temperature and decline in winter snowfall. To disentangle how these opposing climate-driven effects influence mountain goat populations, we developed an age-structured population model to project mountain goat population trajectories for 10 different GCM/emissions scenarios relevant for coastal Alaska. Projected increases in summer temperature had stronger negative effects on population trajectories than the positive demographic effects of reduced winter snowfall. In 5 of the 10 GCM/representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the net effect of projected climate change was extinction over a 70-year time window (2015-2085); smaller initial populations were more likely to go extinct faster than larger populations. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that distributional shifts to higher elevation (i.e., "thermoneutral") summer range was unlikely to be a viable behavioral adaptation strategy; due to the conical shape of mountains, summer range was expected to decline by 17%-86% for 7 of the 10 GCM/RCP scenarios. Projected declines of mountain goat populations are driven by climate-linked bottom-up mechanisms and may have wide ranging implications for alpine ecosystems. These analyses elucidate how projected climate change can negatively alter population dynamics of a sentinel alpine species and provide insight into how demographic modeling can be used to assess risk to species persistence.}, }
@article {pmid28971346, year = {2018}, author = {Bailey, DL and Pichler, BJ and Gückel, B and Antoch, G and Barthel, H and Bhujwalla, ZM and Biskup, S and Biswal, S and Bitzer, M and Boellaard, R and Braren, RF and Brendle, C and Brindle, K and Chiti, A and la Fougère, C and Gillies, R and Goh, V and Goyen, M and Hacker, M and Heukamp, L and Knudsen, GM and Krackhardt, AM and Law, I and Morris, JC and Nikolaou, K and Nuyts, J and Ordonez, AA and Pantel, K and Quick, HH and Riklund, K and Sabri, O and Sattler, B and Troost, EGC and Zaiss, M and Zender, L and Beyer, T}, title = {Combined PET/MRI: Global Warming-Summary Report of the 6th International Workshop on PET/MRI, March 27-29, 2017, Tübingen, Germany.}, journal = {Molecular imaging and biology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {4-20}, pmid = {28971346}, issn = {1860-2002}, mesh = {Humans ; Liquid Biopsy ; *Magnetic Resonance Imaging ; *Positron-Emission Tomography ; Radiotherapy, Image-Guided ; Tumor Microenvironment ; }, abstract = {The 6th annual meeting to address key issues in positron emission tomography (PET)/magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was held again in Tübingen, Germany, from March 27 to 29, 2017. Over three days of invited plenary lectures, round table discussions and dialogue board deliberations, participants critically assessed the current state of PET/MRI, both clinically and as a research tool, and attempted to chart future directions. The meeting addressed the use of PET/MRI and workflows in oncology, neurosciences, infection, inflammation and chronic pain syndromes, as well as deeper discussions about how best to characterise the tumour microenvironment, optimise the complementary information available from PET and MRI, and how advanced data mining and bioinformatics, as well as information from liquid biomarkers (circulating tumour cells and nucleic acids) and pathology, can be integrated to give a more complete characterisation of disease phenotype. Some issues that have dominated previous meetings, such as the accuracy of MR-based attenuation correction (AC) of the PET scan, were finally put to rest as having been adequately addressed for the majority of clinical situations. Likewise, the ability to standardise PET systems for use in multicentre trials was confirmed, thus removing a perceived barrier to larger clinical imaging trials. The meeting openly questioned whether PET/MRI should, in all cases, be used as a whole-body imaging modality or whether in many circumstances it would best be employed to give an in-depth study of previously identified disease in a single organ or region. The meeting concluded that there is still much work to be done in the integration of data from different fields and in developing a common language for all stakeholders involved. In addition, the participants advocated joint training and education for individuals who engage in routine PET/MRI. It was agreed that PET/MRI can enhance our understanding of normal and disrupted biology, and we are in a position to describe the in vivo nature of disease processes, metabolism, evolution of cancer and the monitoring of response to pharmacological interventions and therapies. As such, PET/MRI is a key to advancing medicine and patient care.}, }
@article {pmid28965141, year = {2018}, author = {Chmielewski, FM and Götz, KP and Weber, KC and Moryson, S}, title = {Climate change and spring frost damages for sweet cherries in Germany.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {2}, pages = {217-228}, pmid = {28965141}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {CH 228/5-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Flowers/*growth &amp; development ; *Freezing ; Fruit/growth &amp; development ; Germany ; *Models, Theoretical ; Prunus avium/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Spring frost can be a limiting factor in sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) production. Rising temperatures in spring force the development of buds, whereby their vulnerability to freezing temperatures continuously increases. With the beginning of blossom, flowers can resist only light frosts without any significant damage. In this study, we investigated the risk of spring frost damages during cherry blossom for historical and future climate conditions at two different sites in NE (Berlin) and SW Germany (Geisenheim). Two phenological models, developed on the basis of phenological observations at the experimental sweet cherry orchard in Berlin-Dahlem and validated for endodormancy release and for warmer climate conditions (already published), were used to calculate the beginning of cherry blossom in Geisenheim, 1951-2015 (external model validation). Afterwards, on the basis of a statistical regionalisation model WETTREG (RCP 8.5), the frequency of frost during cherry blossom was calculated at both sites for historical (1971-2000) and future climate conditions (2011-2100). From these data, we derived the final flower damage, defined as the percentage of frozen flowers due to single or multiple frost events during blossom. The results showed that rising temperatures in this century can premature the beginning of cherry blossom up to 17 days at both sites, independent of the used phenological model. The frequency and strength of frost was characterised by a high temporal and local variability. For both sites, no significant increase in frost frequency and frost damage during blossom was found. In Geisenheim, frost damages significantly decreased from the middle of the twenty-first century. This study additionally emphasises the importance of reliable phenological models which not only work for current but also for changed climate conditions and at different sites. The date of endodormancy release should always be a known parameter in chilling/forcing models.}, }
@article {pmid28962974, year = {2017}, author = {Ou, G and Wang, H and Si, R and Guan, W}, title = {The dinoflagellate Akashiwo sanguinea will benefit from future climate change: The interactive effects of ocean acidification, warming and high irradiance on photophysiology and hemolytic activity.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {68}, number = {}, pages = {118-127}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2017.08.003}, pmid = {28962974}, issn = {1878-1470}, mesh = {Acids/*chemistry ; Animals ; Batch Cell Culture Techniques ; Carbonates/chemistry ; Carotenoids/metabolism ; Chlorophyll/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Dinoflagellida/growth &amp; development/*physiology/*radiation effects ; Hemolysis/*radiation effects ; *Light ; *Oceans and Seas ; Photosynthesis/radiation effects ; Rabbits ; }, abstract = {Due to global climate change, marine phytoplankton will likely experience low pH (ocean acidification), high temperatures and high irradiance in the future. Here, this work report the results of a batch culture experiment conducted to study the interactive effects of elevated CO2, increased temperature and high irradiance on the harmful dinoflagellate Akashiwo sanguinea, isolated at Dongtou Island, Eastern China Sea. The A. sanguinea cells were acclimated in high CO2 condition for about three months before testing the responses of cells to a full factorial matrix experimentation during a 7-day period. This study measured the variation in physiological parameters and hemolytic activity in 8 treatments, representing full factorial combinations of 2 levels each of exposure to CO2 (400 and 1000μatm), temperature (20 and 28°C) and irradiance (50 and 200μmol photons m[-2]s[-1]). Sustained growth of A. sanguinea occurred in all treatments, but high CO2 (HC) stimulated faster growth than low CO2 (LC). The pigments (chlorophyll a and carotenoid) decreased in all HC treatments. The quantum yield (Fv/Fm) declined slightly in all high-temperature (HT) treatments. High irradiance (HL) induced the accumulation of ultraviolet-absorbing compounds (UVabc) irrespective of temperature and CO2. The hemolytic activity in the LC treatments, however, declined when exposed to HT and HL, but HC alleviated the adverse effects of HT and HL on hemolytic activity. All HC and HL conditions and the combinations of high temperature*high light (HTHL) and high CO2*high temperature*high light (HCHTHL) positively affected the growth in comparison to the low CO2*low temperature*low light (LCLTLL) treatment. High temperature (HT), high light (HL) and a combination of HT*HL, however, negatively impacted hemolytic activity. CO2 was the main factor that affected the growth and hemolytic activity. There were no significant interactive effects of CO2*temperature*irradiance on growth, pigment, Fv/Fm or hemolytic activity, but there were effects on Pm, α, and Ek. If these results are extrapolated to the natural environment, it can be hypothesized that A. sanguinea cells will benefit from the combination of ocean acidification, warming, and high irradiance that are likely to occur under future climate change. It is assumed that faster growth and higher hemolytic activity and UVabc of this species will occur under future conditions compared with those the current CO2 (400μatm) and temperature (20°C) conditions.}, }
@article {pmid28961781, year = {2017}, author = {Alkorta, I and Epelde, L and Garbisu, C}, title = {Environmental parameters altered by climate change affect the activity of soil microorganisms involved in bioremediation.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology letters}, volume = {364}, number = {19}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsle/fnx200}, pmid = {28961781}, issn = {1574-6968}, mesh = {Bacteria/*metabolism ; Biodegradation, Environmental ; *Climate Change ; Plant Development ; Plants/metabolism ; *Soil Microbiology ; Soil Pollutants/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Bioremediation, based on the use of microorganisms to break down pollutants, can be very effective at reducing soil pollution. But the climate change we are now experiencing is bound to have an impact on bioremediation performance, since the activity and degrading abilities of soil microorganisms are dependent on a series of environmental parameters that are themselves being altered by climate change, such as soil temperature, moisture, amount of root exudates, etc. Many climate-induced effects on soil microorganisms occur indirectly through changes in plant growth and physiology derived from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures, the alteration of precipitation patterns, etc., with a concomitant effect on rhizoremediation performance (i.e. the plant-assisted microbial degradation of pollutants in the rhizosphere). But these effects are extremely complex and mediated by processes such as acclimation and adaptation. Besides, soil microorganisms form complex networks of interactions with a myriad of organisms from many taxonomic groups that will also be affected by climate change, further complicating data interpretation.}, }
@article {pmid28960808, year = {2017}, author = {Williams, H and Downes, E}, title = {Development of a Course on Complex Humanitarian Emergencies: Preparation for the Impact of Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing}, volume = {49}, number = {6}, pages = {661-669}, pmid = {28960808}, issn = {1547-5069}, support = {CC999999//Intramural CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Altruism ; Climate Change ; *Curriculum ; *Disaster Planning ; Disasters ; Education, Nursing/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: The effects of climate change are far-reaching and multifactorial, with potential impacts on food security and conflict. Large population movements, whether from the aftermath of natural disasters or resulting from conflict, can precipitate the need for humanitarian response in what can become complex humanitarian emergencies (CHEs). Nurses need to be prepared to respond to affected communities in need, whether the emergency is domestic or global. The purpose of the article is to describe a novel course for nursing students interested in practice within the confines of CHEs and natural disasters.<br><br>METHODS AND FRAMEWORK: The authors used the Sphere Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards as a practical framework to inform the course development. They completed a review of the literature on the interaction on climate change, conflict and health, and competencies related to working CHEs. Resettled refugees, as well as experts in the area of humanitarian response, recovery, and mitigation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and nongovernmental organizations further informed the development of the course.<br><br>CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This course prepares the nursing workforce to respond appropriately to large population movements that may arise from the aftermath of natural disasters or conflict, both of which can comprise a complex humanitarian disaster. Using The Sphere Project e-learning course, students learn about the Sphere Project, which works to ensure accountability and quality in humanitarian response and offers core minimal standards for technical assistance. These guidelines are seen globally as the gold standard for humanitarian response and address many of the competencies for disaster nursing (http://www.sphereproject.org/learning/e-learning-course/).}, }
@article {pmid28957457, year = {2017}, author = {Ogden, NH}, title = {Climate change and vector-borne diseases of public health significance.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology letters}, volume = {364}, number = {19}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsle/fnx186}, pmid = {28957457}, issn = {1574-6968}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; Ecology ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {There has been much debate as to whether or not climate change will have, or has had, any significant effect on risk from vector-borne diseases. The debate on the former has focused on the degree to which occurrence and levels of risk of vector-borne diseases are determined by climate-dependent or independent factors, while the debate on the latter has focused on whether changes in disease incidence are due to climate at all, and/or are attributable to recent climate change. Here I review possible effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases, methods used to predict these effects and the evidence to date of changes in vector-borne disease risks that can be attributed to recent climate change. Predictions have both over- and underestimated the effects of climate change. Mostly under-estimations of effects are due to a focus only on direct effects of climate on disease ecology while more distal effects on society's capacity to control and prevent vector-borne disease are ignored. There is increasing evidence for possible impacts of recent climate change on some vector-borne diseases but for the most part, observed data series are too short (or non-existent), and impacts of climate-independent factors too great, to confidently attribute changing risk to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28952248, year = {2017}, author = {Yang, X and Zheng, JH and Mu, C and Lin, J}, title = {[Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia under climate change].}, journal = {Zhongguo Zhong yao za zhi = Zhongguo zhongyao zazhi = China journal of Chinese materia medica}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {450-455}, doi = {10.19540/j.cnki.cjcmm.20170103.004}, pmid = {28952248}, issn = {1001-5302}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fabaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Forecasting ; Geography ; *Plant Dispersal ; Spatial Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Specific information on geographic distribution of a species is important for its conservation. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia, which is a plant used in traditional Uighur medicine, and predict how climate change would affect its geographic range. The potential geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under the current conditions in China was simulated with MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 42 locations and 19 climatic variables. The future distributions of A. sparsifolia were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).The result showed that mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual mean temperature, precipitation of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the temperature annual range were the seven climatic factors influencing the geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under current climate, the suitable habitats are mainly located in the Xinjiang, in the middle and north of Gansu, in the west of Neimeng, in the north of Nei Monggol. From 2050 to 2070, the model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats of A. sparsifolia would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and scenarios of RCP8.5 on the whole.}, }
@article {pmid28952024, year = {2017}, author = {Yang, X and Tan, L and He, R and Fu, G and Ye, J and Liu, Q and Wang, G}, title = {Stochastic sensitivity analysis of nitrogen pollution to climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {24}, number = {34}, pages = {26545-26561}, pmid = {28952024}, issn = {1614-7499}, support = {2016YFA0601501//National Key Research and Development Program of China/ ; 41201191//Chinese Natural Science Foundation/ ; 2016490411//Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Soil/chemistry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {It is increasingly recognized that climate change could impose both direct and indirect impacts on the quality of the water environment. Previous studies have mostly concentrated on evaluating the impacts of climate change on non-point source pollution in agricultural watersheds. Few studies have assessed the impacts of climate change on the water quality of river basins with complex point and non-point pollution sources. In view of the gap, this paper aims to establish a framework for stochastic assessment of the sensitivity of water quality to future climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources. A sub-daily soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from multiple point and non-point pollution sources in the upper Huai River basin of China. A weather generator was used to produce 50 years of synthetic daily weather data series for all 25 combinations of precipitation (changes by - 10, 0, 10, 20, and 30%) and temperature change (increases by 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 °C) scenarios. The generated daily rainfall series was disaggregated into the hourly scale and then used to drive the sub-daily SWAT model to simulate the nitrogen cycle under different climate change scenarios. Our results in the study region have indicated that (1) both total nitrogen (TN) loads and concentrations are insensitive to temperature change; (2) TN loads are highly sensitive to precipitation change, while TN concentrations are moderately sensitive; (3) the impacts of climate change on TN concentrations are more spatiotemporally variable than its impacts on TN loads; and (4) wide distributions of TN loads and TN concentrations under individual climate change scenario illustrate the important role of climatic variability in affecting water quality conditions. In summary, the large variability in SWAT simulation results within and between each climate change scenario highlights the uncertainty of the impacts of climate change and the need to incorporate extreme conditions in managing water environment and developing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid28950412, year = {2018}, author = {Felicilda-Reynaldo, RFD and Cruz, JP and Alshammari, F and Obaid, KB and Rady, HEAEA and Qtait, M and Alquwez, N and Colet, PC}, title = {Knowledge of and attitudes toward climate change and its effects on health among nursing students: A multi-Arab country study.}, journal = {Nursing forum}, volume = {53}, number = {2}, pages = {179-189}, doi = {10.1111/nuf.12240}, pmid = {28950412}, issn = {1744-6198}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Arabs/*psychology ; Chi-Square Distribution ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Education, Nursing, Baccalaureate/methods ; Egypt ; Female ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Iraq ; *Knowledge ; Male ; Saudi Arabia ; Students, Nursing/*psychology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and its impact on health continues to receive inadequate attention in the nursing literature, especially in the Arab region. This study explored the knowledge of and attitudes toward climate change and its effect on health among nursing students from four Arab countries.<br><br>METHOD: A cross-sectional study was conducted among a convenience sample of 1,059 baccalaureate nursing students from four Arab countries using the New Ecological Paradigm scale and an adapted questionnaire.<br><br>RESULTS: The findings indicate an average range of attitude toward the environment, with country of residence, type of community, academic-year level, and climate change related variables as significant factors influencing students' attitudes. A moderate level of knowledge about the potential health related impacts of climate change was revealed. Students from Saudi Arabia and Palestinian Territory reported a significantly higher level of knowledge than Egyptian and Iraqi students. Most of the respondents reported that all identified health related effects of climate change have already increased, while more than two-thirds reported that each of the health-related impacts would increase within the next 20 years.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings underscore the need for more coverage of topics related to climate change and its health-related impacts in nursing education curricula in Arab countries.}, }
@article {pmid28950027, year = {2017}, author = {Zhai, S and Song, G and Qin, Y and Ye, X and Lee, J}, title = {Modeling the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield in inland China: An autoregressive distributed lag approach.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {e0184474}, pmid = {28950027}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {This study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield per unit area from 1970 to 2014 in Henan, the largest agricultural province in China, using an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The bounded F-test for cointegration among the model variables yielded evidence of a long-run relationship among climate change, technical progress, and the wheat yield per unit area. In the long run, agricultural machinery and fertilizer use both had significantly positive impacts on the per unit area wheat yield. A 1% increase in the aggregate quantity of fertilizer use increased the wheat yield by 0.19%. Additionally, a 1% increase in machine use increased the wheat yield by 0.21%. In contrast, precipitation during the wheat growth period (from emergence to maturity, consisting of the period from last October to June) led to a decrease in the wheat yield per unit area. In the short run, the coefficient of the aggregate quantity of fertilizer used was negative. Land size had a significantly positive impact on the per unit area wheat yield in the short run. There was no significant short-run or long-run impact of temperature on the wheat yield per unit area in Henan Province. The results of our analysis suggest that climate change had a weak impact on the wheat yield, while technical progress played an important role in increasing the wheat yield per unit area. The results of this study have implications for national and local agriculture policies under climate change. To design well-targeted agriculture adaptation policies for the future and to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on the wheat yield, climate change and technical progress factors should be considered simultaneously. In addition, adaptive measures associated with technical progress should be given more attention.}, }
@article {pmid28949467, year = {2017}, author = {McCoy, D}, title = {Critical Global Health: Responding to Poverty, Inequality and Climate Change Comment on "Politics, Power, Poverty and Global Health: Systems and Frames".}, journal = {International journal of health policy and management}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {539-541}, pmid = {28949467}, issn = {2322-5939}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Politics ; *Poverty ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {A recent article by Sol Benatar calls on the global health community to reassess its approach to twin crises of global poverty and climate change. I build on his article by challenging mainstream narratives that claim satisfactory progress in efforts to reduce poverty and improve health for all, and arguing that any eradication of poverty that is consistent with environmental sustainability will require a more explicit emphasis on the redistribution of power and wealth. I suggest that the global health community has been largely socialised into accepting that progress and future solutions can be attained through more neoliberal development, technological advancement and philanthropic endeavour and that a more critical global health is required. I propose three steps that the global health community should take: first, create more space for the social, political and political sciences within global health; second, be more prepared to act politically and challenge power; and third, do more to bridge the global-local divide in recognition of the fact that progressive change requires mobilisation from the bottom-up in conjunction with top-down policy and legislative change.}, }
@article {pmid28948655, year = {2018}, author = {Jones, MC and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {e719-e731}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13869}, pmid = {28948655}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Fisheries ; *Fuzzy Logic ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Invertebrates ; *Models, Biological ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Marine species are being impacted by climate change and ocean acidification, although their level of vulnerability varies due to differences in species' sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure to climate hazards. Due to limited data on the biological and ecological attributes of many marine species, as well as inherent uncertainties in the assessment process, climate change vulnerability assessments in the marine environment frequently focus on a limited number of taxa or geographic ranges. As climate change is already impacting marine biodiversity and fisheries, there is an urgent need to expand vulnerability assessment to cover a large number of species and areas. Here, we develop a modelling approach to synthesize data on species-specific estimates of exposure, and ecological and biological traits to undertake an assessment of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and risk of impacts (combining exposure to hazards and vulnerability) of climate change (including ocean acidification) for global marine fishes and invertebrates. We use a fuzzy logic approach to accommodate the variability in data availability and uncertainties associated with inferring vulnerability levels from climate projections and species' traits. Applying the approach to estimate the relative vulnerability and risk of impacts of climate change in 1074 exploited marine species globally, we estimated their index of vulnerability and risk of impacts to be on average 52 ± 19 SD and 66 ± 11 SD, scaling from 1 to 100, with 100 being the most vulnerable and highest risk, respectively, under the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We identified 157 species to be highly vulnerable while 294 species are identified as being at high risk of impacts. Species that are most vulnerable tend to be large-bodied endemic species. This study suggests that the fuzzy logic framework can help estimate climate vulnerabilities and risks of exploited marine species using publicly and readily available information.}, }
@article {pmid28948471, year = {2017}, author = {Masud, MM and Akhatr, R and Nasrin, S and Adamu, IM}, title = {Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {24}, number = {34}, pages = {26462-26477}, pmid = {28948471}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Adult ; *Awareness ; *Climate Change ; *Demography ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Malaysia ; Male ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28948096, year = {2017}, author = {Acuña-Rodríguez, IS and Torres-Díaz, C and Hereme, R and Molina-Montenegro, MA}, title = {Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {e3718}, pmid = {28948096}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species' physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could increase in their ecophysiological performance, enhancing the size of populations or their spread.}, }
@article {pmid28946962, year = {2017}, author = {de Lorenzo, A and Liaño, F}, title = {High temperatures and nephrology: The climate change problem.}, journal = {Nefrologia : publicacion oficial de la Sociedad Espanola Nefrologia}, volume = {37}, number = {5}, pages = {492-500}, doi = {10.1016/j.nefro.2016.12.008}, pmid = {28946962}, issn = {1989-2284}, mesh = {Acute Kidney Injury/etiology/physiopathology ; Body Temperature Regulation/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Dehydration/etiology/physiopathology ; Disease Susceptibility ; Glomerular Filtration Rate ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Heat Exhaustion/etiology/physiopathology ; Hemodynamics ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Kidney/physiology ; Kidney Diseases/epidemiology/*etiology ; Models, Biological ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Sweating/physiology ; Water-Electrolyte Imbalance/etiology/physiopathology ; }, abstract = {It is well known that climate change greatly affects human health, even though there are few studies on renal outcomes. Heat waves have been found to increase cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality, as well as the risk of acute renal failure and hospitalisation due to renal diseases, with related mortality. Recurrent dehydration in people regularly exposed to high temperatures seems to be resulting in an unrecognised cause of proteinuric chronic kidney disease, the underlying pathophysiological mechanism of which is becoming better understood. However, beyond heat waves and extreme temperatures, there is a seasonal variation in glomerular filtration rate that may contribute to the onset of renal failure and electrolyte disorders during extremely hot periods. Although there are few references in the literature, serum sodium disorders seem to increase. The most vulnerable population to heat-related disease are the elderly, children, chronic patients, bedridden people, disabled people, people living alone or with little social contact, and socioeconomically disadvantaged people.}, }
@article {pmid28945144, year = {2018}, author = {Moragrega, C and Puig, M and Ruz, L and Montesinos, E and Llorente, I}, title = {Epidemiological Features and Trends of Brown Spot of Pear Disease Based on the Diversity of Pathogen Populations and Climate Change Effects.}, journal = {Phytopathology}, volume = {108}, number = {2}, pages = {223-233}, doi = {10.1094/PHYTO-03-17-0079-R}, pmid = {28945144}, issn = {0031-949X}, mesh = {Ascomycota/*isolation &amp; purification/pathogenicity/physiology ; Climate Change ; Fruit/microbiology ; Fungicides, Industrial ; Geography ; Multivariate Analysis ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; Plant Leaves/microbiology ; Pyrus/*microbiology ; Risk ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Brown spot of pear, caused by the fungus Stemphylium vesicarium, is an emerging disease of economic importance in several pear-growing areas in Europe. In recent years, new control strategies combining sanitation practices and fungicide applications according to developed forecasting models have been introduced to manage the disease. However, the pathogenic and saprophytic behavior of this pathogen makes it difficult to manage the disease. In addition, climate change can also result in variations in the severity and geographical distribution of the disease. In this study, ecological and epidemiological aspects of brown spot of pear disease related to inoculum characterization and climate change impact were elucidated. The pathogenic variation in S. vesicarium populations from pear orchards and its relationship to inoculum sources (air samples, leaf debris, and infected host and nonhost tissues) was determined using multivariate analysis. In total, six variables related to infection and disease development on cultivar Conference pear detached leaves of 110 S. vesicarium isolates were analyzed. A high proportion of isolates (42%) were nonpathogenic to pear; 85% of these nonpathogenic isolates were recovered from air samples. Most isolates recovered from lesions (93%) and pseudothecia (83%) were pathogenic to pear. A group of pathogenic isolates rapidly infected cultivar Conference pear leaves resulted in disease increase that followed a monomolecular model, whereas some S. vesicarium isolates required a period of time after inoculation to initiate infection and resulted in disease increase that followed a logistic model. The latter group was mainly composed of isolates recovered from pseudothecia on leaf debris, whereas the former group was mainly composed of isolates recovered from lesions on pear fruit and leaves. The relationship between the source of inoculum and pathogenic/aggressiveness profile was confirmed by principal component analysis. The effect of climate change on disease risk was analyzed in two pear-growing areas of Spain under two scenarios (A2 and B1) and for three periods (2005 to 2009, 2041 to 2060, and 2081 to 2100). Simulations showed that the level of risk predicted by BSPcast model increased to high or very high under the two scenarios and was differentially distributed in the two regions. This study is an example of how epidemiological models can be used to predict not only the onset of infections but also how climate change could affect brown spot of pear. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license .}, }
@article {pmid28935782, year = {2017}, author = {Davydova, A}, title = {Russia heightens defenses against climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {357}, number = {6357}, pages = {1221}, doi = {10.1126/science.357.6357.1221}, pmid = {28935782}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid28934674, year = {2017}, author = {Tanner-McAllister, SL and Rhodes, J and Hockings, M}, title = {Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {204}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {510-518}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.09.038}, pmid = {28934674}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Decision Making ; Government ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management.}, }
@article {pmid28934282, year = {2017}, author = {Mandle, L and Wolny, S and Bhagabati, N and Helsingen, H and Hamel, P and Bartlett, R and Dixon, A and Horton, R and Lesk, C and Manley, D and De Mel, M and Bader, D and Nay Won Myint, S and Myint, W and Su Mon, M}, title = {Assessing ecosystem service provision under climate change to support conservation and development planning in Myanmar.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {e0184951}, pmid = {28934282}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Decision Making ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Myanmar ; Social Planning ; }, abstract = {Inclusion of ecosystem services (ES) information into national-scale development and climate adaptation planning has yet to become common practice, despite demand from decision makers. Identifying where ES originate and to whom the benefits flow-under current and future climate conditions-is especially critical in rapidly developing countries, where the risk of ES loss is high. Here, using Myanmar as a case study, we assess where and how ecosystems provide key benefits to the country's people and infrastructure. We model the supply of and demand for sediment retention, dry-season baseflows, flood risk reduction and coastal storm protection from multiple beneficiaries. We find that locations currently providing the greatest amount of services are likely to remain important under the range of climate conditions considered, demonstrating their importance in planning for climate resilience. Overlap between priority areas for ES provision and biodiversity conservation is higher than expected by chance overall, but the areas important for multiple ES are underrepresented in currently designated protected areas and Key Biodiversity Areas. Our results are contributing to development planning in Myanmar, and our approach could be extended to other contexts where there is demand for national-scale natural capital information to shape development plans and policies.}, }
@article {pmid28931842, year = {2017}, author = {Kroeger, KD and Crooks, S and Moseman-Valtierra, S and Tang, J}, title = {Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {11914}, pmid = {28931842}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as "Blue Carbon"), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH4) and CO2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.}, }
@article {pmid28929710, year = {2017}, author = {, }, title = {Fighting global warming under the Trump Administration: a one-on-one conversation with Joel Schwartz.}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {41}, number = {3-4}, pages = {163-164}, doi = {10.19191/EP17.3-4.P163.047}, pmid = {28929710}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Carbon Dioxide ; Dissent and Disputes ; *Environmental Health ; Fossil Fuels ; *Global Warming ; Government Employees ; Humans ; Public Policy ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid28928261, year = {2017}, author = {Torjesen, I}, title = {Paris Agreement's ambition to limit global warming to 1.5°C still possible, analysis shows.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {358}, number = {}, pages = {j4332}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.j4332}, pmid = {28928261}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Environmental Policy ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Paris ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid28926597, year = {2017}, author = {Reyna, KS and Burggren, WW}, title = {Altered embryonic development in northern bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) induced by pre-incubation oscillatory thermal stresses mimicking global warming predictions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {e0184670}, pmid = {28926597}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Embryo, Nonmammalian/metabolism ; Embryonic Development ; Global Warming ; Kaplan-Meier Estimate ; Oxygen Consumption ; Quail/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; Water/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Global warming is likely to alter reproductive success of ground-nesting birds that lay eggs normally left unattended for days or even weeks before actual parental incubation, especially in already warm climates. The native North American bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) is such a species, and pre-incubation quail eggs may experience temperatures ≥45°C. Yet, almost nothing is known about embryonic survival after such high pre-incubation temperatures. Freshly laid bobwhite quail eggs were exposed during a 12 day pre-incubation period to one of five thermal regimes: low oscillating temperatures (25-40°C, mean = 28.9°C), high oscillating temperatures (30-45°C, mean = 33.9°C), low constant temperatures (28.85°C), high constant temperatures (mean = 33.9°C), or commercially employed pre-incubation temperatures (20°C). After treatment, eggs were then incubated at a standard 37.5°C to determine subsequent effects on embryonic development rate, survival, water loss, hatching, and embryonic oxygen consumption. Both quantity of heating degree hours during pre-incubation and specific thermal regime (oscillating vs. non-oscillating) profoundly affected important aspects of embryo survival and indices of development and growth Pre-incubation quail eggs showed a remarkable tolerance to constant high temperatures (up to 45°C), surviving for 4.5±0.3 days of subsequent incubation, but high oscillating pre-incubation temperature increased embryo survival (mean survival 12.2±1.8 days) and led to more rapid development than high constant temperature (maximum 38.5°C), even though both groups experienced the same total heating degree-hours. Oxygen consumption was ~200-300 μl O2.egg.min-1 at hatching in all groups, and was not affected by pre-incubation conditions. Oscillating temperatures, which are the norm for pre-incubation quail eggs in their natural habitat, thus enhanced survival at higher temperatures. However, a 5°C increase in pre-incubation temperature, which equates to the predicted long-term increases of 5°C or more, nonetheless reduced hatching rate by approximately 50%. Thus, while pre-incubation bobwhite eggs may be resiliant to moderate oscillating temperature increases, global warming will likely severely impact wild bobwhite quail populations, especially in their strongholds in southern latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid28918270, year = {2018}, author = {Soleimani, A and Hosseini, SM and Massah Bavani, AR and Jafari, M and Francaviglia, R}, title = {Corrigendum to "Simulating soil organic carbon stock as affected by land cover change and climate change, Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran)" [Sci. Total Environ. 599-600 (2017) 1646-1657].}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {613-614}, number = {}, pages = {388}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.294}, pmid = {28918270}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid28915548, year = {2018}, author = {Jackson, FL and Fryer, RJ and Hannah, DM and Millar, CP and Malcolm, IA}, title = {A spatio-temporal statistical model of maximum daily river temperatures to inform the management of Scotland's Atlantic salmon rivers under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {612}, number = {}, pages = {1543-1558}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.010}, pmid = {28915548}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The thermal suitability of riverine habitats for cold water adapted species may be reduced under climate change. Riparian tree planting is a practical climate change mitigation measure, but it is often unclear where to focus effort for maximum benefit. Recent developments in data collection, monitoring and statistical methods have facilitated the development of increasingly sophisticated river temperature models capable of predicting spatial variability at large scales appropriate to management. In parallel, improvements in temporal river temperature models have increased the accuracy of temperature predictions at individual sites. This study developed a novel large scale spatio-temporal model of maximum daily river temperature (Twmax) for Scotland that predicts variability in both river temperature and climate sensitivity. Twmax was modelled as a linear function of maximum daily air temperature (Tamax), with the slope and intercept allowed to vary as a smooth function of day of the year (DoY) and further modified by landscape covariates including elevation, channel orientation and riparian woodland. Spatial correlation in Twmax was modelled at two scales; (1) river network (2) regional. Temporal correlation was addressed through an autoregressive (AR1) error structure for observations within sites. Additional site level variability was modelled with random effects. The resulting model was used to map (1) spatial variability in predicted Twmax under current (but extreme) climate conditions (2) the sensitivity of rivers to climate variability and (3) the effects of riparian tree planting. These visualisations provide innovative tools for informing fisheries and land-use management under current and future climate.}, }
@article {pmid28915463, year = {2018}, author = {Koutroulis, AG and Papadimitriou, LV and Grillakis, MG and Tsanis, IK and Wyser, K and Betts, RA}, title = {Freshwater vulnerability under high end climate change. A pan-European assessment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {613-614}, number = {}, pages = {271-286}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.074}, pmid = {28915463}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {As freshwater availability is crucial for securing a sustainable, lower‑carbon future, there is a critical connection between water management and climate policies. Under a rapidly changing climate, it is more important than ever to estimate the degree of future water security. This is a challenging task as it depends on many different variables: the degree of warming and its consequent effects on hydrological resources, the water demand by different sectors, and the possible ameliorations or deteriorations of the effects due to climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. A simple and transparent conceptual framework has been developed to assess the European vulnerability to freshwater stress under the present hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions, in comparison to projections of future vulnerability for different degrees of global warming (1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C), under the high-rate warming scenario (RCP8.5). Different levels of adaptation to climate change are considered in the framework, by employing various relevant pathways of socioeconomic development. A spatially detailed pan-European map of vulnerability to freshwater shortage has been developed at the local administrative level, making this approach extremely useful for supporting regional level policymaking and implementation and strategic planning against future freshwater stress.}, }
@article {pmid28915399, year = {2018}, author = {Kumari, S and Hiloidhari, M and Kumari, N and Naik, SN and Dahiya, RP}, title = {Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {147}, number = {}, pages = {516-522}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2017.09.003}, pmid = {28915399}, issn = {1090-2414}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; India ; *Livestock ; Methane/*analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH4 emission. The results show that the CH4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO2e (GTP20) and 62 Tg CO2e (GTP100) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases.}, }
@article {pmid28904775, year = {2017}, author = {Kettenbach, JA and Miller-Struttmann, N and Moffett, Z and Galen, C}, title = {How shrub encroachment under climate change could threaten pollination services for alpine wildflowers: A case study using the alpine skypilot, Polemonium viscosum.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {17}, pages = {6963-6971}, pmid = {28904775}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Under climate change, shrubs encroaching into high altitude plant communities disrupt ecosystem processes. Yet effects of encroachment on pollination mutualisms are poorly understood. Here, we probe potential fitness impacts of interference from encroaching Salix (willows) on pollination quality of the alpine skypilot, Polemonium viscosum. Overlap in flowering time of Salix and Polemonium is a precondition for interference and was surveyed in four extant and 25 historic contact zones. Pollinator sharing was ascertained from observations of willow pollen on bumble bees visiting Polemonium flowers and on Polemonium pistils. We probed fitness effects of pollinator sharing by measuring the correlation between Salix pollen contamination and seed set in naturally pollinated Polemonium. To ascertain whether Salix interference occurred during or after pollination, we compared seed set under natural pollination, conspecific pollen addition, and Salix pollen addition. In current and past contact zones Polemonium and Salix overlapped in flowering time. After accounting for variance in flowering date due to latitude, Salix and Polemonium showed similar advances in flowering under warmer summers. This trend supports the idea that sensitivity to temperature promotes reproductive synchrony in both species. Salix pollen is carried by bumble bees when visiting Polemonium flowers and accounts for up to 25% of the grains on Polemonium pistils. Salix contamination correlates with reduced seed set in nature and when applied experimentally. Postpollination processes likely mediate these deleterious effects as seed set in nature was not limited by pollen delivery.<br><br>SYNTHESIS: As willows move higher with climate change, we predict that they will drive postpollination interference, reducing the fitness benefits of pollinator visitation for Polemonium and selecting for traits that reduce pollinator sharing.}, }
@article {pmid28904756, year = {2017}, author = {Du, Y and Chen, J and Willis, CG and Zhou, Z and Liu, T and Dai, W and Zhao, Y and Ma, K}, title = {Phylogenetic conservatism and trait correlates of spring phenological responses to climate change in northeast China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {17}, pages = {6747-6757}, pmid = {28904756}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change has resulted in major changes in plant phenology across the globe that includes leaf-out date and flowering time. The ability of species to respond to climate change, in part, depends on their response to climate as a phenological cue in general. Species that are not phenologically responsive may suffer in the face of continued climate change. Comparative studies of phenology have found phylogeny to be a reliable predictor of mean leaf-out date and flowering time at both the local and global scales. This is less true for flowering time response (i.e., the correlation between phenological timing and climate factors), while no study to date has explored whether the response of leaf-out date to climate factors exhibits phylogenetic signal. We used a 52-year observational phenological dataset for 52 woody species from the Forest Botanical Garden of Heilongjiang Province, China, to test phylogenetic signal in leaf-out date and flowering time, as well as, the response of these two phenological traits to both temperature and winter precipitation. Leaf-out date and flowering time were significantly responsive to temperature for most species, advancing, on average, 3.11 and 2.87 day/°C, respectively. Both leaf-out and flowering, and their responses to temperature exhibited significant phylogenetic signals. The response of leaf-out date to precipitation exhibited no phylogenetic signal, while flowering time response to precipitation did. Native species tended to have a weaker flowering response to temperature than non-native species. Earlier leaf-out species tended to have a greater response to winter precipitation. This study is the first to assess phylogenetic signal of leaf-out response to climate change, which suggests, that climate change has the potential to shape the plant communities, not only through flowering sensitivity, but also through leaf-out sensitivity.}, }
@article {pmid28904751, year = {2017}, author = {Ortega-García, S and Guevara, L and Arroyo-Cabrales, J and Lindig-Cisneros, R and Martínez-Meyer, E and Vega, E and Schondube, JE}, title = {The thermal niche of Neotropical nectar-feeding bats: Its evolution and application to predict responses to global warming.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {17}, pages = {6691-6701}, pmid = {28904751}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The thermal niche of a species is one of the main determinants of its ecology and biogeography. In this study, we determined the thermal niche of 23 species of Neotropical nectar-feeding bats of the subfamily Glossophaginae (Chiroptera, Phyllostomidae). We calculated their thermal niches using temperature data obtained from collection records, by generating a distribution curve of the maximum and minimum temperatures per locality, and using the inflection points of the temperature distributions to estimate the species optimal (STZ) and suboptimal (SRZ) zones of the thermal niche. Additionally, by mapping the values of the STZ and SRZ on a phylogeny of the group, we generated a hypothesis of the evolution of the thermal niches of this clade of nectar-feeding bats. Finally, we used the characteristics of their thermal niches to predict the responses of these organisms to climate change. We found a large variation in the width and limits of the thermal niches of nectar-feeding bats. Additionally, while the upper limits of the thermal niches varied little among species, their lower limits differ wildly. The ancestral reconstruction of the thermal niche indicated that this group of Neotropical bats evolved under cooler temperatures. The two clades inside the Glossophaginae differ in the evolution of their thermal niches, with most members of the clade Choeronycterines evolving "colder" thermal niches, while the majority of the species in the clade Glossophagines evolving "warmer" thermal niches. By comparing thermal niches with climate change models, we found that all species could be affected by an increase of 1°C in temperature at the end of this century. This suggests that even nocturnal species could suffer important physiological costs from global warming. Our study highlights the value of scientific collections to obtain ecologically significant physiological data for a large number of species.}, }
@article {pmid28901603, year = {2017}, author = {Earl, J and Hickey, C and Rieder, TN}, title = {Fertility, immigration, and the fight against climate change.}, journal = {Bioethics}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {582-589}, doi = {10.1111/bioe.12374}, pmid = {28901603}, issn = {1467-8519}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Demography ; Developing Countries ; *Economics ; *Emigration and Immigration ; *Fertility ; Humans ; *Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Several philosophers have recently argued that policies aimed at reducing human fertility are a practical and morally justifiable way to mitigate the risk of dangerous climate change. There is a powerful objection to such "population engineering" proposals: even if drastic fertility reductions are needed to prevent dangerous climate change, implementing those reductions would wreak havoc on the global economy, which would seriously undermine international antipoverty efforts. In this article, we articulate this economic objection to population engineering and show how it fails. We argue, first, that the economic objection paints an inaccurate picture of the complicated relationship between demographic change and economic growth, and second, that any untoward economic effects of fertility reduction can be mitigated with additional policies. Specifically, we argue that supplementing fertility reduction with policies that facilitate the emigration of younger people from developing nations to developed nations could allow for both global reductions in GHG emissions and continued economic stability. Further, we show that moral arguments against such unprecedented increases in immigration are unsuccessful. We conclude that population engineering is a practical and morally justifiable tool for addressing the twin evils of climate change and global poverty.}, }
@article {pmid28898825, year = {2017}, author = {He, X and Chen, L and Han, L and Liu, N and Cui, R and Yin, H and Huang, G}, title = {Evaluation of biochar powder on oxygen supply efficiency and global warming potential during mainstream large-scale aerobic composting.}, journal = {Bioresource technology}, volume = {245}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {309-317}, doi = {10.1016/j.biortech.2017.08.076}, pmid = {28898825}, issn = {1873-2976}, mesh = {*Charcoal ; China ; *Composting ; *Global Warming ; Methane ; Oxygen ; Soil ; }, abstract = {This study investigated the effects of biochar powder on oxygen supply efficiency and global warming potential (GWP) in the large-scale aerobic composting pattern which includes cyclical forced-turning with aeration at the bottom of composting tanks in China. A 55-day large-scale aerobic composting experiment was conducted in two different groups without and with 10% biochar powder addition (by weight). The results show that biochar powder improves the holding ability of oxygen, and the duration time (O2>5%) is around 80%. The composting process with above pattern significantly reduce CH4 and N2O emissions compared to the static or turning-only styles. Considering the average GWP of the BC group was 19.82% lower than that of the CK group, it suggests that rational addition of biochar powder has the potential to reduce the energy consumption of turning, improve effectiveness of the oxygen supply, and reduce comprehensive greenhouse effects.}, }
@article {pmid28898285, year = {2017}, author = {Bowler, D and Böhning-Gaese, K}, title = {Improving the community-temperature index as a climate change indicator.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {e0184275}, pmid = {28898285}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biomass ; Birds/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Fishes/physiology ; *Hot Temperature ; Models, Statistical ; }, abstract = {Climate change indicators are tools to assess, visualize and communicate the impacts of climate change on species and communities. Indicators that can be applied to different taxa are particularly useful because they allow comparative analysis to identify which kinds of species are being more affected. A general prediction, supported by empirical data, is that the abundance of warm-adapted species should increase over time, relative to the cool-adapted ones within communities, under increasing ambient temperatures. The community temperature index (CTI) is a community weighted mean of species' temperature preferences and has been used as an indicator to summarize this temporal shift. The CTI has the advantages of being a simple and generalizable indicator; however, a core problem is that temporal trends in the CTI may not only reflect changes in temperature. This is because species' temperature preferences often covary with other species attributes, and these other attributes may affect species response to other environmental drivers. Here, we propose a novel model-based approach that separates the effects of temperature preference from the effects of other species attributes on species' abundances and subsequently on the CTI. Using long-term population data of breeding birds in Denmark and demersal marine fish in the southeastern North Sea, we find differences in CTI trends with the original approach and our model-based approach, which may affect interpretation of climate change impacts. We suggest that our method can be used to test the robustness of CTI trends to the possible effects of other drivers of change, apart from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28893985, year = {2017}, author = {Imbach, P and Fung, E and Hannah, L and Navarro-Racines, CE and Roubik, DW and Ricketts, TH and Harvey, CA and Donatti, CI and Läderach, P and Locatelli, B and Roehrdanz, PR}, title = {Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {39}, pages = {10438-10442}, pmid = {28893985}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics ; Animals ; Bees/*classification/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Coffea/*growth &amp; development ; Coffee/*economics ; Crops, Agricultural/*economics/*growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; Farms/economics ; Pollination/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops. Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination. We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. Our results suggest that coffee-suitable areas will be reduced 73-88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46-76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8-18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46-59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10-22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34-51% of other areas. Finally, in 31-33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases. Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions.}, }
@article {pmid28891026, year = {2017}, author = {Robinson, A and Inouye, DW and Ogilvie, JE and Mooney, EH}, title = {Multitrophic interactions mediate the effects of climate change on herbivore abundance.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {185}, number = {2}, pages = {181-190}, pmid = {28891026}, issn = {1432-1939}, support = {DEB-9408382//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; DEB-0238331//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; DEB-0922080//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; DEB-1354104//Division of Environmental Biology/ ; IBN-9814509//Directorate for Biological Sciences/ ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Ants ; Aphids ; *Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; *Herbivory ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Plants ; Population Density ; Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Climate change can influence the abundance of insect herbivores through direct and indirect mechanisms. In this study, we evaluated multitrophic drivers of herbivore abundance for an aphid species (Aphis helianthi) in a subalpine food web consisting of a host plant (Ligusticum porteri), mutualist ants and predatory lygus bugs (Lygus spp.). We used a model-selection approach to determine which climate and host plant cues best predict year-to-year variation in insect phenology and abundance observed over 6 years. We complemented this observational study with experiments that determined how elevated temperature interacts with (1) host plant phenology and (2) the ant-aphid mutualism to determine aphid abundance. We found date of snowmelt to be the best predictor of yearly abundance of aphid and lygus bug abundance but the direction of this effect differed. Aphids achieved lower abundances in early snowmelt years likely due to increased abundance of lygus bug predators in these years. Elevating temperature of L. porteri flowering stalks reduced their quality as hosts for aphid populations. However, warming aphid colonies on host plants of similar quality increased population growth rates. Importantly, this effect was apparent even in the absence of ants. While we observed fewer ants tending colonies at elevated temperatures, these colonies also had reduced numbers of lygus bug predators. This suggests that mutualism with ants becomes less significant as temperature increases, which contrasts other ant-hemipteran systems. Our observational and experimental results show the importance of multitrophic species interactions for predicting the effect of climate change on the abundances of herbivores.}, }
@article {pmid28890712, year = {2017}, author = {Bose, H and Satyanarayana, T}, title = {Microbial Carbonic Anhydrases in Biomimetic Carbon Sequestration for Mitigating Global Warming: Prospects and Perspectives.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {1615}, pmid = {28890712}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {All the leading cities in the world are slowly becoming inhospitable for human life with global warming playing havoc with the living conditions. Biomineralization of carbon dioxide using carbonic anhydrase (CA) is one of the most economical methods for mitigating global warming. The burning of fossil fuels results in the emission of large quantities of flue gas. The temperature of flue gas is quite high. Alkaline conditions are necessary for CaCO3 precipitation in the mineralization process. In order to use CAs for biomimetic carbon sequestration, thermo-alkali-stable CAs are, therefore, essential. CAs must be stable in the presence of various flue gas contaminants too. The extreme environments on earth harbor a variety of polyextremophilic microbes that are rich sources of thermo-alkali-stable CAs. CAs are the fastest among the known enzymes, which are of six basic types with no apparent sequence homology, thus represent an elegant example of convergent evolution. The current review focuses on the utility of thermo-alkali-stable CAs in biomineralization based strategies. A variety of roles that CAs play in various living organisms, the use of CA inhibitors as drug targets and strategies for overproduction of CAs to meet the demand are also briefly discussed.}, }
@article {pmid28888233, year = {2017}, author = {Hunt, J and Wu, J}, title = {Asian Urban Environment and Climate Change: Preface.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {59}, number = {}, pages = {1-5}, doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2017.07.019}, pmid = {28888233}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution ; Asia ; *City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {The Asian Network on Climate Science and Technology (www.ancst.org), in collaboration with Tsinghua University, held a conference on environmental and climate science, air pollution, urban planning and transportation in July 2015, with over 40 Asian experts participating and presentation. This was followed by a meeting with local government and community experts on the practical conclusions of the conference. Of the papers presented at the conference a selection are included in this special issue of Journal of Environmental Science, which also reflects the conclusions of the Paris Climate meeting in Dec 2015, when the major nations of the world agreed about the compelling need to reduce the upward trend of adverse impacts associated with global climate change. Now is the time for urban areas to work out the serious consequences for their populations, but also how they should work together to take action to reduce global warming to benefit their own communities and also the whole planet!}, }
@article {pmid28887895, year = {2018}, author = {Carmona-Castro, O and Moo-Llanes, DA and Ramsey, JM}, title = {Impact of climate change on vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas, 1909) in North America.}, journal = {Medical and veterinary entomology}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {84-101}, doi = {10.1111/mve.12269}, pmid = {28887895}, issn = {1365-2915}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Chagas Disease/parasitology/*transmission ; *Climate Change ; Insect Vectors/parasitology/*physiology ; Mexico ; Models, Biological ; Reduviidae/parasitology/*physiology ; Trypanosoma cruzi/*physiology ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change can influence the geographical range of the ecological niche of pathogens by altering biotic interactions with vectors and reservoirs. The distributions of 20 epidemiologically important triatomine species in North America were modelled, comparing the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt), with or without topographical variables. Potential shifts in transmission niche for Trypanosoma cruzi (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae) (Chagas, 1909) were analysed for 2050 and 2070 in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. There were no significant quantitative range differences between the GARP and MaxEnt models, but GARP models best represented known distributions for most species [partial-receiver operating characteristic (ROC) > 1]; elevation was an important variable contributing to the ecological niche model (ENM). There was little difference between niche breadth projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; the majority of species shifted significantly in both periods. Those species with the greatest current distribution range are expected to have the greatest shifts. Positional changes in the centroid, although reduced for most species, were associated with latitude. A significant increase or decrease in mean niche elevation is expected principally for Neotropical 1 species. The impact of climate change will be specific to each species, its biogeographical region and its latitude. North American triatomines with the greatest current distribution ranges (Nearctic 2 and Nearctic/Neotropical) will have the greatest future distribution shifts. Significant shifts (increases or decreases) in mean elevation over time are projected principally for the Neotropical species with the broadest current distributions. Changes in the vector exposure threat to the human population were significant for both future periods, with a 1.48% increase for urban populations and a 1.76% increase for rural populations in 2050.}, }
@article {pmid28887819, year = {2017}, author = {Sullivan-Marx, E and McCauley, L}, title = {Climate Change, Global Health, and Nursing Scholarship.}, journal = {Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing}, volume = {49}, number = {6}, pages = {593-595}, doi = {10.1111/jnu.12342}, pmid = {28887819}, issn = {1547-5069}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Education, Nursing/*methods ; *Environmental Health ; Faculty, Nursing/*education ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid28886914, year = {2018}, author = {Charlton, MB and Bowes, MJ and Hutchins, MG and Orr, HG and Soley, R and Davison, P}, title = {Mapping eutrophication risk from climate change: Future phosphorus concentrations in English rivers.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {613-614}, number = {}, pages = {1510-1526}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.218}, pmid = {28886914}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to increase eutrophication risk in rivers yet few studies identify the timescale or spatial extent of such impacts. Phosphorus concentration, considered the primary driver of eutrophication risk in English rivers, may increase through reduced dilution particularly if river flows are lower in summer. Detailed models can indicate change in catchment phosphorus concentrations but targeted support for mitigation measures requires a national scale evaluation of risk. In this study, a load apportionment model is used to describe the current relationship between flow and total reactive phosphorus (TRP) at 115 river sites across England. These relationships are used to estimate TRP concentrations for the 2050s under 11 climate change driven scenarios of future river flows and under scenarios of both current and higher levels of sewage treatment. National maps of change indicate a small but inconsistent increase in annual average TRP concentrations with a greater change in summer. Reducing the TRP concentration of final sewage effluent to 0.5mg/L P for all upstream sewage treatment works was inadequate to meet existing P standards required through the EU Water Framework Directive, indicating that more needs to be done, including efforts to reduce diffuse pollution.}, }
@article {pmid28886538, year = {2018}, author = {Aslam, RA and Shrestha, S and Pandey, VP}, title = {Groundwater vulnerability to climate change: A review of the assessment methodology.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {612}, number = {}, pages = {853-875}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.237}, pmid = {28886538}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Impacts of climate change on water resources, especially groundwater, can no longer be hidden. These impacts are further exacerbated under the integrated influence of climate variability, climate change and anthropogenic activities. The degree of impact varies according to geographical location and other factors leading systems and regions towards different levels of vulnerability. In the recent past, several attempts have been made in various regions across the globe to quantify the impacts and consequences of climate and non-climate factors in terms of vulnerability to groundwater resources. Firstly, this paper provides a structured review of the available literature, aiming to critically analyse and highlight the limitations and knowledge gaps involved in vulnerability (of groundwater to climate change) assessment methodologies. The effects of indicator choice and the importance of including composite indicators are then emphasised. A new integrated approach for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability to climate change is proposed to successfully address those limitations. This review concludes that the choice of indicator has a significant role in defining the reliability of computed results. The effect of an individual indicator is also apparent but the consideration of a combination (variety) of indicators may give more realistic results. Therefore, in future, depending upon the local conditions and scale of the study, indicators from various groups should be chosen. Furthermore, there are various assumptions involved in previous methodologies, which limit their scope by introducing uncertainty in the calculated results. These limitations can be overcome by implementing the proposed approach.}, }
@article {pmid28885979, year = {2017}, author = {Gosling, SN and Hondula, DM and Bunker, A and Ibarreta, D and Liu, J and Zhang, X and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {125}, number = {8}, pages = {087008}, pmid = {28885979}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Mortality/*trends ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments.<br><br>METHODS: We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty.<br><br>RESULTS: The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.}, }
@article {pmid28884406, year = {2017}, author = {Lonsdale, WR and Kretser, HE and Chetkiewicz, CB and Cross, MS}, title = {Similarities and Differences in Barriers and Opportunities Affecting Climate Change Adaptation Action in Four North American Landscapes.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {60}, number = {6}, pages = {1076-1089}, pmid = {28884406}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/*methods ; *Decision Making, Organizational ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Policy/economics/trends ; Humans ; Natural Resources ; North America ; *Organizational Innovation/economics ; Planning Techniques ; Policy Making ; Politics ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change presents a complex set of challenges for natural resource managers across North America. Despite recognition that climate change poses serious threats to species, ecosystems, and human communities, implementation of adaptation measures is not yet happening on a broad scale. Among different regions, a range of climate change trajectories, varying political contexts, and diverse social and ecological systems generate a myriad of factors that can affect progress on climate change adaptation implementation. In order to understand the general versus site-specific nature of barriers and opportunities influencing implementation, we surveyed and interviewed practitioners, decision-makers, and scientists involved in natural resource management in four different North American regions, northern Ontario (Canada), the Adirondack State Park (US), Arctic Alaska (US), and the Transboundary Rocky Mountains (US and Canada). Common barriers among regions related to a lack of political support and financial resources, as well as challenges related to translating complex and interacting effects of climate change into management actions. Opportunities shared among regions related to collaboration, funding, and the presence of strong leadership. These commonalities indicate the importance of cross-site learning about ways to leverage opportunities and address adaptation barriers; however, regional variations also suggest that adaptation efforts will need to be tailored to fit specific ecological, political, social and economic contexts. Comparative findings on the similarities and differences in barriers and opportunities, as well as rankings of barriers and opportunities by region, offers important contextual insights into how to further refine efforts to advance adaptation actions in those regions.}, }
@article {pmid28883403, year = {2017}, author = {Viglietti, PA and Rubidge, BS and Smith, RMH}, title = {New Late Permian tectonic model for South Africa's Karoo Basin: foreland tectonics and climate change before the end-Permian crisis.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {10861}, pmid = {28883403}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Late Permian Karoo Basin tectonics in South Africa are reflected as two fining-upward megacycles in the Balfour and upper Teekloof formations. Foreland tectonics are used to explain the cyclic nature and distribution of sedimentation, caused by phases of loading and unloading in the southern source areas adjacent to the basin. New data supports this model, and identifies potential climatic effects on the tectonic regime. Diachronous second-order subaerial unconformities (SU) are identified at the base and top of the Balfour Formation. One third-order SU identified coincides with a faunal turnover which could be related to the Permo-Triassic mass extinction (PTME). The SU are traced, for the first time, to the western portion of the basin (upper Teekloof Formation). Their age determinations support the foreland basin model as they coincide with dated paroxysms. A condensed distal (northern) stratigraphic record is additional support for this tectonic regime because orogenic loading and unloading throughout the basin was not equally distributed, nor was it in-phase. This resulted in more frequent non-deposition with increased distance from the tectonically active source. Refining basin dynamics allows us to distinguish between tectonic and climatic effects and how they have influenced ancient ecosystems and sedimentation through time.}, }
@article {pmid28882186, year = {2017}, author = {Suffice, P and Asselin, H and Imbeau, L and Cheveau, M and Drapeau, P}, title = {More fishers and fewer martens due to cumulative effects of forest management and climate change as evidenced from local knowledge.}, journal = {Journal of ethnobiology and ethnomedicine}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {51}, pmid = {28882186}, issn = {1746-4269}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; Female ; Food Chain ; Forestry/*methods ; Male ; *Mustelidae ; Population Density ; Quebec ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Monitoring of fur-bearing species populations is relatively rare due to their low densities. In addition to catch data, trappers' experience provides information on the ecology and status of the harvested species. Fisher (Pekania pennanti) and American marten (Martes americana) are mustelids that are sensitive to forest management and therefore considered to be ecological indicators of forest health. Fisher populations have increased in eastern North America since the early 2000s and this could have resulted in a northeastern extension of the species' range and increased overlap with marten's range. Moreover, habitats of both species are subject to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The objective of this study was to document the knowledge held by local trappers in the northern area of sympatry between fisher and marten to identify factors that could explain variation in populations of the two species and interactions between them.<br><br>METHOD: Forty-one semi-directed interviews with Indigenous and non-Indigenous trappers in the Abitibi-T&#xe9;miscamingue region of western Quebec (Canada), at the northern limit of the overlapping ranges of the two mustelid species.<br><br>RESULTS: Trappers highlighted the lack of exclusivity of marten and fisher to coniferous forests, although marten is more closely associated with them than is fisher. Fisher apparently also takes advantage of open environments, including agroforestry systems. Moreover, climate change increases the frequency of freeze-thaw events that cause the formation of an ice crust on the snow surface, which favors fisher movements.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The fisher was identified as a competitor and even a predator of the marten. Furthermore, the fisher is less affected than the marten by forest management, and it also seems to benefit from climate change to a greater extent.}, }
@article {pmid28881936, year = {2017}, author = {Urban, MC and Zarnetske, PL and Skelly, DK}, title = {Searching for Biotic Multipliers of Climate Change.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, pages = {134-147}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icx045}, pmid = {28881936}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {As climates change, biologists need to prioritize which species to understand, predict, and protect. One way is to identify key species that are both sensitive to climate change and that disproportionately affect communities and ecosystems. These "biotic multipliers" provide efficient targets for research and conservation. Here, we propose eight mechanistic hypotheses related to impact and sensitivity that suggest that top consumers might often act as biotic multipliers of climate change. For impact, top consumers often affect communities and ecosystems through strong top-down effects. For sensitivity, metabolic theory and data suggest that photosynthesis and respiration differ in temperature responses, potentially increasing the sensitivity of consumers relative to plants. Larger-bodied organisms are typically more thermally sensitive than smaller ones, suggesting how large top consumers might be more sensitive than their smaller prey. In addition, traits related to predation are more sensitive than defensive traits to temperature. Top consumers might also be more sensitive because they often lag behind prey in phenological responses. The combination of low population sizes and demographic traits of top consumers could make them more sensitive to disturbances like climate change, which could slow their recovery. As top consumers are positioned at the top of the food chain, many small effects can accumulate from other trophic levels to affect top consumers. Finally, top consumers also often disperse more frequently and farther than prey, potentially leading to greater sensitivity to climate-induced changes in ranges and subsequent impacts on invaded communities. Overall, we expect that large, ectothermic top consumers and mobile predators might frequently be biotic multipliers of climate change. However, this prediction depends on the particular features of species, habitats, and ecosystems. In specific cases, herbivores, plants, or pathogens might be more sensitive than top consumers or have greater community impacts. To predict biotic multipliers, we need to compare sensitivities and impacts across trophic groups in a broader range of ecosystems as well as perform experiments that uncouple proposed mechanisms. Overall, the biotic multiplier concept offers an alternative prioritization scheme for research and conservation that includes impacts on communities and ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid28880945, year = {2017}, author = {Sewell, DK and Rayner, PJ and Shank, DB and Guy, S and Lilburn, SD and Saber, S and Kashima, Y}, title = {Causal knowledge promotes behavioral self-regulation: An example using climate change dynamics.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {e0184480}, pmid = {28880945}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Economic Development ; Humans ; Social Behavior ; }, abstract = {Adopting successful climate change mitigation policies requires the public to choose how to balance the sometimes competing goals of managing CO2 emissions and achieving economic growth. It follows that collective action on climate change depends on members of the public to be knowledgeable of the causes and economic ramifications of climate change. The existing literature, however, shows that people often struggle to correctly reason about the fundamental accumulation dynamics that drive climate change. Previous research has focused on using analogy to improve people's reasoning about accumulation, which has been met with some success. However, these existing studies have neglected the role economic factors might play in shaping people's decisions in relation to climate change. Here, we introduce a novel iterated decision task in which people attempt to achieve a specific economic goal by interacting with a causal dynamic system in which human economic activities, CO2 emissions, and warming are all causally interrelated. We show that when the causal links between these factors are highlighted, people's ability to achieve the economic goal of the task is enhanced in a way that approaches optimal responding, and avoids dangerous levels of warming.}, }
@article {pmid28878792, year = {2017}, author = {Barnes, PW and Ryel, RJ and Flint, SD}, title = {UV Screening in Native and Non-native Plant Species in the Tropical Alpine: Implications for Climate Change-Driven Migration of Species to Higher Elevations.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {1451}, pmid = {28878792}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Ongoing changes in Earth's climate are shifting the elevation ranges of many plant species with non-native species often experiencing greater expansion into higher elevations than native species. These climate change-induced shifts in distributions inevitably expose plants to novel biotic and abiotic environments, including altered solar ultraviolet (UV)-B (280-315 nm) radiation regimes. Do the greater migration potentials of non-native species into higher elevations imply that they have more effective UV-protective mechanisms than native species? In this study, we surveyed leaf epidermal UV-A transmittance (TUV A) in a diversity of plant species representing different growth forms to test whether native and non-native species growing above 2800 m elevation on Mauna Kea, Hawaii differed in their UV screening capabilities. We further compared the degree to which TUV A varied along an elevation gradient in the native shrub Vaccinium reticulatum and the introduced forb Verbascum thapsus to evaluate whether these species differed in their abilities to adjust their levels of UV screening in response to elevation changes in UV-B. For plants growing in the Mauna Kea alpine/upper subalpine, we found that adaxial TUV A, measured with a UVA-PAM fluorometer, varied significantly among species but did not differ between native (mean = 6.0%; n = 8) and non-native (mean = 5.8%; n = 11) species. When data were pooled across native and non-native taxa, we also found no significant effect of growth form on TUV A, though woody plants (shrubs and trees) were represented solely by native species whereas herbaceous growth forms (grasses and forbs) were dominated by non-native species. Along an elevation gradient spanning 2600-3800 m, TUV A was variable (mean range = 6.0-11.2%) and strongly correlated with elevation and relative biologically effective UV-B in the exotic V. thapsus; however, TUV A was consistently low (3%) and did not vary with elevation in the native V. reticulatum. Results indicate that high levels of UV protection occur in both native and non-native species in this high UV-B tropical alpine environment, and that flexibility in UV screening is a mechanism employed by some, but not all species to cope with varying solar UV-B exposures along elevation gradients.}, }
@article {pmid28875164, year = {2017}, author = {Rajsekhar, D and Gorelick, SM}, title = {Increasing drought in Jordan: Climate change and cascading Syrian land-use impacts on reducing transboundary flow.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {3}, number = {8}, pages = {e1700581}, pmid = {28875164}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {In countries where severe drought is an anticipated effect of climate change and in those that heavily depend on upstream nations for fresh water, the effect of drier conditions and consequent changes in the transboundary streamflow regime induced by anthropogenic interventions and disasters leads to uncertainty in regional water security. As a case in point, we analyze Jordan's surface water resources and agricultural water demand through 2100, considering the combined impacts of climate change and land-use change driven by the Syrian conflict. We use bias-corrected regional climate simulations as input to high-resolution hydrologic models to assess three drought types: meteorological (rainfall decrease), agricultural (soil moisture deficit), and hydrologic (streamflow decline) under future scenarios. The historical baseline period (1981-2010) is compared to the future (2011-2100), divided into three 30-year periods. Comparing the baseline period to 2070-2100, average temperature increases by 4.5°C, rainfall decreases by 30%, and multiple drought-type occurrences increase from ~8 in 30 years to ~25 in 30 years. There is a significant increase in the contemporaneous occurrence of multiple drought types along with an 80% increase in simultaneous warm and dry events. Watershed simulations of future transboundary Yarmouk-Jordan River flow from Syria show that Jordan would receive 51 to 75% less Yarmouk water compared to historical flow. Recovery of Syrian irrigated agriculture to pre-conflict conditions would produce twice the decline in transboundary flow as that due to climate change. In Jordan, the confluence of limited water supply, future drought, and transboundary hydrologic impacts of land use severely challenges achieving freshwater sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid28874748, year = {2017}, author = {Yang, HF and Yang, SL and Xu, KH and Wu, H and Shi, BW and Zhu, Q and Zhang, WX and Yang, Z}, title = {Erosion potential of the Yangtze Delta under sediment starvation and climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {10535}, pmid = {28874748}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Deltas are widely threatened by sediment starvation and climate change. Erosion potential is an important indicator of delta vulnerability. Here, we investigate the erosion potential of the Yangtze Delta. We found that over the past half century the Yangtze's sediment discharge has decreased by 80% due to the construction of >50,000 dams and soil conservation, whereas the wind speed and wave height in the delta region have increased by 5-7%, and the sea level has risen at a rate of 3 mm/yr. According to hydrodynamic measurements and analyses of seabed sediments, the period when bed shear stress due to combined current-wave action under normal weather conditions exceeds the critical bed shear stress for erosion (τ cr) accounts for 63% of the total observed period on average and can reach 100% during peak storms. This explains why net erosion has occurred in some areas of the subaqueous delta. We also found that the increase with depth of τ cr is very gradual in the uppermost several metres of the depositional sequence. We therefore expect that the Yangtze subaqueous delta will experience continuous erosion under sediment starvation and climate change in the next decades of this century or even a few centuries.}, }
@article {pmid28874529, year = {2017}, author = {McConnell, JR and Burke, A and Dunbar, NW and Köhler, P and Thomas, JL and Arienzo, MM and Chellman, NJ and Maselli, OJ and Sigl, M and Adkins, JF and Baggenstos, D and Burkhart, JF and Brook, EJ and Buizert, C and Cole-Dai, J and Fudge, TJ and Knorr, G and Graf, HF and Grieman, MM and Iverson, N and McGwire, KC and Mulvaney, R and Paris, G and Rhodes, RH and Saltzman, ES and Severinghaus, JP and Steffensen, JP and Taylor, KC and Winckler, G}, title = {Synchronous volcanic eruptions and abrupt climate change ∼17.7 ka plausibly linked by stratospheric ozone depletion.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {38}, pages = {10035-10040}, pmid = {28874529}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Glacial-state greenhouse gas concentrations and Southern Hemisphere climate conditions persisted until ∼17.7 ka, when a nearly synchronous acceleration in deglaciation was recorded in paleoclimate proxies in large parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with many changes ascribed to a sudden poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and subsequent climate impacts. We used high-resolution chemical measurements in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide, Byrd, and other ice cores to document a unique, ∼192-y series of halogen-rich volcanic eruptions exactly at the start of accelerated deglaciation, with tephra identifying the nearby Mount Takahe volcano as the source. Extensive fallout from these massive eruptions has been found >2,800 km from Mount Takahe. Sulfur isotope anomalies and marked decreases in ice core bromine consistent with increased surface UV radiation indicate that the eruptions led to stratospheric ozone depletion. Rather than a highly improbable coincidence, circulation and climate changes extending from the Antarctic Peninsula to the subtropics-similar to those associated with modern stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica-plausibly link the Mount Takahe eruptions to the onset of accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation ∼17.7 ka.}, }
@article {pmid28871605, year = {2018}, author = {Henson, SA and Cole, HS and Hopkins, J and Martin, AP and Yool, A}, title = {Detection of climate change-driven trends in phytoplankton phenology.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {e101-e111}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13886}, pmid = {28871605}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Phytoplankton/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The timing of the annual phytoplankton spring bloom is likely to be altered in response to climate change. Quantifying that response has, however, been limited by the typically coarse temporal resolution (monthly) of global climate models. Here, we use higher resolution model output (maximum 5 days) to investigate how phytoplankton bloom timing changes in response to projected 21st century climate change, and how the temporal resolution of data influences the detection of long-term trends. We find that bloom timing generally shifts later at mid-latitudes and earlier at high and low latitudes by ~5 days per decade to 2100. The spatial patterns of bloom timing are similar in both low (monthly) and high (5 day) resolution data, although initiation dates are later at low resolution. The magnitude of the trends in bloom timing from 2006 to 2100 is very similar at high and low resolution, with the result that the number of years of data needed to detect a trend in phytoplankton phenology is relatively insensitive to data temporal resolution. We also investigate the influence of spatial scales on bloom timing and find that trends are generally more rapidly detectable after spatial averaging of data. Our results suggest that, if pinpointing the start date of the spring bloom is the priority, the highest possible temporal resolution data should be used. However, if the priority is detecting long-term trends in bloom timing, data at a temporal resolution of 20 days are likely to be sufficient. Furthermore, our results suggest that data sources which allow for spatial averaging will promote more rapid trend detection.}, }
@article {pmid28871543, year = {2017}, author = {Arnholdt-Schmitt, B}, title = {Respiration Traits as Novel Markers for Plant Robustness Under the Threat of Climate Change: A Protocol for Validation.}, journal = {Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.)}, volume = {1670}, number = {}, pages = {183-191}, doi = {10.1007/978-1-4939-7292-0_15}, pmid = {28871543}, issn = {1940-6029}, mesh = {Biochemistry/*methods ; Biomarkers/*metabolism ; Cell Respiration ; *Climate Change ; Daucus carota/cytology/*metabolism ; Meristem/metabolism ; Plant Roots/metabolism ; Plant Shoots/metabolism ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, abstract = {Respiration traits allow calculating temperature-dependent carbon use efficiency and prediction of growth rates. This protocol aims (1) to enable validation of respiration traits as non-DNA biomarkers for breeding on robust plants in support of sustainable and healthy plant production; (2) to provide an efficient, novel way to identify and predict functionality of DNA-based markers (genes, polymorphisms, edited genes, transgenes, genomes, and hologenomes), and (3) to directly help farmers select robust material appropriate for a specified region. The protocol is based on applying isothermal calorespirometry and consists of four steps: plant tissue preparation, calorespirometry measurements, data processing, and final validation through massive field-based data.The methodology can serve selection and improvement for a wide range of crops. Several of them are currently being tested in the author's lab. Among them are important cereals, such as wheat, barley, and rye, and diverse vegetables. However, it is critical that the protocol for measuring respiration traits be well adjusted to the plant species by considering deep knowledge on the specific physiology and functional cell biology behind the final target trait for production. Here, Daucus carota L. is chosen as an advanced example to demonstrate critical species-specific steps for protocol development. Carrot is an important global vegetable that is grown worldwide and in all climate regions (moderate, subtropical, and tropical). Recently, this species is also used in my lab as a model for studies on alternative oxidase (AOX) gene diversity and evolutionary dynamics in interaction with endophytes.}, }
@article {pmid28871202, year = {2017}, author = {Albrecht, J and Bartoń, KA and Selva, N and Sommer, RS and Swenson, JE and Bischof, R}, title = {Humans and climate change drove the Holocene decline of the brown bear.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {10399}, pmid = {28871202}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Europe ; *Extinction, Biological ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Ursidae/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The current debate about megafaunal extinctions during the Quaternary focuses on the extent to which they were driven by humans, climate change, or both. These two factors may have interacted in a complex and unexpected manner, leaving the exact pathways to prehistoric extinctions unresolved. Here we quantify, with unprecedented detail, the contribution of humans and climate change to the Holocene decline of the largest living terrestrial carnivore, the brown bear (Ursus arctos), on a continental scale. We inform a spatially explicit metapopulation model for the species by combining life-history data and an extensive archaeofaunal record from excavations across Europe with reconstructed climate and land-use data reaching back 12,000 years. The model reveals that, despite the broad climatic niche of the brown bear, increasing winter temperatures contributed substantially to its Holocene decline - both directly by reducing the species' reproductive rate and indirectly by facilitating human land use. The first local extinctions occurred during the Mid-Holocene warming period, but the rise of the Roman Empire 2,000 years ago marked the onset of large-scale extinctions, followed by increasingly rapid range loss and fragmentation. These findings strongly support the hypothesis that complex interactions between climate and humans may have accelerated megafaunal extinctions.}, }
@article {pmid28869695, year = {2018}, author = {Griffith, GP and Strutton, PG and Semmens, JM}, title = {Climate change alters stability and species potential interactions in a large marine ecosystem.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {e90-e100}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13891}, pmid = {28869695}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Fishes/*classification/*physiology ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {We have little empirical evidence of how large-scale overlaps between large numbers of marine species may have altered in response to human impacts. Here, we synthesized all available distribution data (>1 million records) since 1992 for 61 species of the East Australian marine ecosystem, a global hot spot of ocean warming and continuing fisheries exploitation. Using a novel approach, we constructed networks of the annual changes in geographical overlaps between species. Using indices of changes in species overlap, we quantified changes in the ecosystem stability, species robustness, species sensitivity and structural keystone species. We then compared the species overlap indices with environmental and fisheries data to identify potential factors leading to the changes in distributional overlaps between species. We found that the structure of the ecosystem has changed with a decrease in asymmetrical geographical overlaps between species. This suggests that the ecosystem has become less stable and potentially more susceptible to environmental perturbations. Most species have shown a decrease in overlaps with other species. The greatest decrease in species overlap robustness and sensitivity to the loss of other species has occurred in the pelagic community. Some demersal species have become more robust and less sensitive. Pelagic structural keystone species, predominately the tunas and billfish, have been replaced by demersal fish species. The changes in species overlap were strongly correlated with regional oceanographic changes, in particular increasing ocean warming and the southward transport of warmer and saltier water with the East Australian Current, but less correlated with fisheries catch. Our study illustrates how large-scale multispecies distribution changes can help identify structural changes in marine ecosystems associated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28867871, year = {2017}, author = {Singh, K and McClean, CJ and Büker, P and Hartley, SE and Hill, JK}, title = {Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India.}, journal = {Agricultural systems}, volume = {156}, number = {}, pages = {76-84}, pmid = {28867871}, issn = {0308-521X}, abstract = {Global warming is predicted to increase in the future, with detrimental consequences for rainfed crops that are dependent on natural rainfall (i.e. non-irrigated). Given that many crops grown under rainfed conditions support the livelihoods of low-income farmers, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of rainfed areas to climate change in order to anticipate potential risks to food security. In this paper, we focus on India, where ~ 50% of rice is grown under rainfed conditions, and we employ statistical models (climate envelope models (CEMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs)) to map changes in climate suitability for rainfed rice cultivation at a regional level (~ 18 × 18 km cell resolution) under projected future (2050) climate change (IPCC RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, using three GCMs: BCC-CSM1.1, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and HadGEM2-ES). We quantify the occurrence of rice (whether or not rainfed rice is commonly grown, using CEMs) and rice extent (area under cultivation, using BRTs) during the summer monsoon in relation to four climate variables that affect rice growth and yield namely ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration (PER), maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin), and total rainfall during harvesting. Our models described the occurrence and extent of rice very well (CEMs for occurrence, ensemble AUC = 0.92; BRTs for extent, Pearson's r = 0.87). PER was the most important predictor of rainfed rice occurrence, and it was positively related to rainfed rice area, but all four climate variables were important for determining the extent of rice cultivation. Our models project that 15%-40% of current rainfed rice growing areas will be at risk (i.e. decline in climate suitability or become completely unsuitable). However, our models project considerable variation across India in the impact of future climate change: eastern and northern India are the locations most at risk, but parts of central and western India may benefit from increased precipitation. Hence our CEM and BRT models agree on the locations most at risk, but there is less consensus about the degree of risk at these locations. Our results help to identify locations where livelihoods of low-income farmers and regional food security may be threatened in the next few decades by climate changes. The use of more drought-resilient rice varieties and better irrigation infrastructure in these regions may help to reduce these impacts and reduce the vulnerability of farmers dependent on rainfed cropping.}, }
@article {pmid28862778, year = {2017}, author = {Jordan, R and Hoffmann, AA and Dillon, SK and Prober, SM}, title = {Evidence of genomic adaptation to climate in Eucalyptus microcarpa: Implications for adaptive potential to projected climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {21}, pages = {6002-6020}, doi = {10.1111/mec.14341}, pmid = {28862778}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Eucalyptus/*genetics ; Gene Frequency ; Genetics, Population ; *Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; *Selection, Genetic ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding whether populations can adapt in situ or whether interventions are required is of key importance for biodiversity management under climate change. Landscape genomics is becoming an increasingly important and powerful tool for rapid assessments of climate adaptation, especially in long-lived species such as trees. We investigated climate adaptation in Eucalyptus microcarpa using the DArTseq genomic approach. A combination of FST outlier and environmental association analyses were performed using >4200 genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 26 populations spanning climate gradients in southeastern Australia. Eighty-one SNPs were identified as putatively adaptive, based on significance in FST outlier tests and significant associations with one or more climate variables related to temperature (70/81), aridity (37/81) or precipitation (35/81). Adaptive SNPs were located on all 11 chromosomes, with no particular region associated with individual climate variables. Climate adaptation appeared to be characterized by subtle shifts in allele frequencies, with no consistent fixed differences identified. Based on these associations, we predict adaptation under projected changes in climate will include a suite of shifts in allele frequencies. Whether this can occur sufficiently rapidly through natural selection within populations, or would benefit from assisted gene migration, requires further evaluation. In some populations, the absence or predicted increases to near fixation of particular adaptive alleles hint at potential limits to adaptive capacity. Together, these results reinforce the importance of standing genetic variation at the geographic level for maintaining species' evolutionary potential.}, }
@article {pmid28861903, year = {2018}, author = {Trull, N and Böhm, M and Carr, J}, title = {Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {135-147}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.13022}, pmid = {28861903}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; Bias ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; *Extinction, Biological ; }, abstract = {International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change-vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population-level threats).}, }
@article {pmid28861124, year = {2017}, author = {Seidl, R and Thom, D and Kautz, M and Martin-Benito, D and Peltoniemi, M and Vacchiano, G and Wild, J and Ascoli, D and Petr, M and Honkaniemi, J and Lexer, MJ and Trotsiuk, V and Mairota, P and Svoboda, M and Fabrika, M and Nagel, TA and Reyer, CPO}, title = {Forest disturbances under climate change.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {395-402}, pmid = {28861124}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {Y 895/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, abstract = {Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.}, }
@article {pmid28860149, year = {2018}, author = {Robertson, L}, title = {Climate change, weather and road deaths.}, journal = {Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {232-235}, doi = {10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042419}, pmid = {28860149}, issn = {1475-5785}, mesh = {Accidents, Traffic/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; United States ; Urbanization ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {In 2015, a 7% increase in road deaths per population in the USA reversed the 35-year downward trend. Here I test the hypothesis that weather influenced the change in trend. I used linear regression to estimate the effect of temperature and precipitation on miles driven per capita in urbanizedurbanised areas of the USA during 2010. I matched date and county of death with temperature on that date and number of people exposed to that temperature to calculate the risk per persons exposed to specific temperatures. I employed logistic regression analysis of temperature, precipitation and other risk factors prevalent in 2014 to project expected deaths in 2015 among the 100 most populous counties in the USA. Comparison of actual and projected deaths provided an estimate of deaths expected without the temperature increase.}, }
@article {pmid28858329, year = {2017}, author = {Phillips, N}, title = {Legal threat exposes gaps in climate-change planning.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {548}, number = {7669}, pages = {508-509}, doi = {10.1038/548508a}, pmid = {28858329}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics ; Australia ; Budgets ; *Climate Change/economics ; Disaster Planning/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*organization &amp; administration/standards ; Europe ; Global Warming/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Meteorology/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*standards ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Uncertainty ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid28858315, year = {2017}, author = {Meissner, KJ and Bralower, TJ}, title = {Palaeoclimate: Volcanism caused ancient global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {548}, number = {7669}, pages = {531-533}, pmid = {28858315}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Global Warming ; Temperature ; *Volcanic Eruptions ; }, }
@article {pmid28857058, year = {2017}, author = {Kjellstrom, T and Lemke, B and Otto, M}, title = {Climate conditions, workplace heat and occupational health in South-East Asia in the context of climate change.}, journal = {WHO South-East Asia journal of public health}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {15-21}, doi = {10.4103/2224-3151.213786}, pmid = {28857058}, issn = {2304-5272}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Occupational Diseases/*epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Occupational Exposure/*adverse effects ; *Occupational Health ; Risk ; Workplace ; }, abstract = {Occupational health is particularly affected by high heat exposures in workplaces, which will be an increasing problem as climate change progresses. People working in jobs of moderate or heavy work intensity in hot environments are at particular risk, owing to exposure to high environmental heat and internal heat production. This heat needs to be released to protect health, and such release is difficult or impossible at high temperatures and high air humidity. A range of clinical health effects can occur, and the heat-related physical exhaustion leads to a reduction of work capacity and labour productivity, which may cause substantial economic losses. Current trends in countries of the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region are towards higher ambient heat levels during large parts of each year, and modelling indicates continuing trends, which will particularly affect low-income individuals and communities. Prevention activities need to address the climate policies of each country, and to apply currently available heat-reducing technologies in workplaces whenever possible. Work activities can be adjusted to reduce exposure to daily heat peaks or seasonal heat concerns. Application of basic occupational health principles, such as supply of drinking water, enforcement of rest periods and training of workers and supervisors, is essential.}, }
@article {pmid28857057, year = {2017}, author = {Dhimal, M and Dhimal, ML and Pote-Shrestha, RR and Groneberg, DA and Kuch, U}, title = {Health-sector responses to address the impacts of climate change in Nepal.}, journal = {WHO South-East Asia journal of public health}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {9-14}, doi = {10.4103/2224-3151.213795}, pmid = {28857057}, issn = {2304-5272}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*organization &amp; administration ; Health Care Sector/*organization &amp; administration ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Nepal ; }, abstract = {Nepal is highly vulnerable to global climate change, despite its negligible emission of global greenhouse gases. The vulnerable climate-sensitive sectors identified in Nepal's National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to Climate Change 2010 include agriculture, forestry, water, energy, public health, urbanization and infrastructure, and climate-induced disasters. In addition, analyses carried out as part of the NAPA process have indicated that the impacts of climate change in Nepal are not gender neutral. Vector-borne diseases, diarrhoeal diseases including cholera, malnutrition, cardiorespiratory diseases, psychological stress, and health effects and injuries related to extreme weather are major climate-sensitive health risks in the country. In recent years, research has been done in Nepal in order to understand the changing epidemiology of diseases and generate evidence for decision-making. Based on this evidence, the experience of programme managers, and regular surveillance data, the Government of Nepal has mainstreamed issues related to climate change in development plans, policies and programmes. In particular, the Government of Nepal has addressed climate-sensitive health risks. In addition to the NAPA report, several policy documents have been launched, including the Climate Change Policy 2011; the Nepal Health Sector Programme - Implementation Plan II (NHSP-IP 2) 2010-2015; the National Health Policy 2014; the National Health Sector Strategy 2015-2020 and its implementation plan (2016-2021); and the Health National Adaptation Plan (H-NAP): climate change and health strategy and action plan (2016-2020). However, the translation of these policies and plans of action into tangible action on the ground is still in its infancy in Nepal. Despite this, the health sector's response to addressing the impact of climate change in Nepal may be taken as a good example for other low- and middle-income countries.}, }
@article {pmid28857056, year = {2017}, author = {Bowen, KJ and Ebi, KL}, title = {Health risks of climate change in the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.}, journal = {WHO South-East Asia journal of public health}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {3-8}, doi = {10.4103/2224-3151.213789}, pmid = {28857056}, issn = {2304-5272}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; *Climate Change/mortality ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Environmental Health/organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Malnutrition/epidemiology ; *Public Health ; Risk ; Weather ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region are particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. Changes in extreme weather events, undernutrition and the spread of infectious diseases are projected to increase the number of deaths due to climate change by 2030, indicating the need to strengthen activities for adaptation and mitigation. With support from the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia and others, countries have started to include climate change as a key consideration in their national public health policies. Further efforts are needed to develop evidence-based responses; garner the necessary support from partner ministries; and access funding for activities related to health and climate change. National action plans for climate change generally identify health as one of their priorities; however, limited information is available on implementation processes, including which ministries and departments would be involved; the time frame; stakeholder responsibilities; and how the projects would be financed. While progress is being made, efforts are needed to increase the capacity of health systems to manage the health risks of climate change in South-East Asia, if population health is to be protected and strengthened while addressing changing weather and climate patterns. Enhancing the resilience of health systems is key to ensuring a sustainable path to improved planetary and population health.}, }
@article {pmid28857055, year = {2017}, author = {Ibrahim, HEAN and Mathur, A}, title = {Climate change and health in Maldives: Protecting our common future.}, journal = {WHO South-East Asia journal of public health}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.4103/2224-3151.213785}, pmid = {28857055}, issn = {2304-5272}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*organization &amp; administration ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Indian Ocean Islands ; }, }
@article {pmid28855959, year = {2017}, author = {Reyer, CPO and Bathgate, S and Blennow, K and Borges, JG and Bugmann, H and Delzon, S and Faias, SP and Garcia-Gonzalo, J and Gardiner, B and Gonzalez-Olabarria, JR and Gracia, C and Hernández, JG and Kellomäki, S and Kramer, K and Lexer, MJ and Lindner, M and van der Maaten, E and Maroschek, M and Muys, B and Nicoll, B and Palahi, M and Palma, JH and Paulo, JA and Peltola, H and Pukkala, T and Rammer, W and Ray, D and Sabaté, S and Schelhaas, MJ and Seidl, R and Temperli, C and Tomé, M and Yousefpour, R and Zimmermann, NE and Hanewinkel, M}, title = {Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {034027}, pmid = {28855959}, issn = {1748-9326}, support = {Y 895/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, abstract = {Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid28851885, year = {2017}, author = {Davies, TE and Maxwell, SM and Kaschner, K and Garilao, C and Ban, NC}, title = {Large marine protected areas represent biodiversity now and under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {9569}, pmid = {28851885}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Large marine protected areas (>30,000 km[2]) have a high profile in marine conservation, yet their contribution to conservation is contested. Assessing the overlap of large marine protected areas with 14,172 species, we found large marine protected areas cover 4.4% of the ocean and at least some portion of the range of 83.3% of the species assessed. Of all species within large marine protected areas, 26.9% had at least 10% of their range represented, and this was projected to increase to 40.1% in 2100. Cumulative impacts were significantly higher within large marine protected areas than outside, refuting the critique that they only occur in pristine areas. We recommend future large marine protected areas be sited based on systematic conservation planning practices where possible and include areas beyond national jurisdiction, and provide five key recommendations to improve the long-term representation of all species to meet critical global policy goals (e.g., Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Targets).}, }
@article {pmid28844791, year = {2017}, author = {Nadeau, CP and Urban, MC and Bridle, JR}, title = {Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {32}, number = {10}, pages = {786-800}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2017.07.012}, pmid = {28844791}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Genetic Variation ; Phenotype ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research.}, }
@article {pmid28841645, year = {2017}, author = {Yuan, X and Bai, J and Li, L and Kurban, A and De Maeyer, P}, title = {The dominant role of climate change in determining changes in evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {e0183071}, pmid = {28841645}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; History, 21st Century ; Models, Theoretical ; Water/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China has experienced significant land cover and climate change since the beginning of the 21st century. However, a reasonable simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and its response to environmental factors are still unclear. For this study, to simulate ET and its response to climate and land cover change in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012, we used the Common Land Model (CoLM) by adding irrigation effects for cropland and modifying root distributions and the root water uptake process for shrubland. Our results indicate that mean annual ET from 2001 to 2012 was 131.22 (±21.78) mm/year and demonstrated no significant trend (p = 0.12). The model simulation also indicates that climate change was capable of explaining 99% of inter-annual ET variability; land cover change only explained 1%. Land cover change caused by the expansion of croplands increased annual ET by 1.11 mm while climate change, mainly resulting from both decreased temperature and precipitation, reduced ET by 21.90 mm. Our results imply that climate change plays a dominant role in determining changes in ET, and also highlight the need for appropriate land-use strategies for managing water sources in dryland ecosystems within Xinjiang.}, }
@article {pmid28839273, year = {2017}, author = {Greenspan, SE and Bower, DS and Roznik, EA and Pike, DA and Marantelli, G and Alford, RA and Schwarzkopf, L and Scheffers, BR}, title = {Infection increases vulnerability to climate change via effects on host thermal tolerance.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {9349}, pmid = {28839273}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Amphibians/microbiology ; Animal Diseases/etiology/microbiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Susceptibility ; Infections/*etiology ; *Thermotolerance ; }, abstract = {Unprecedented global climate change and increasing rates of infectious disease emergence are occurring simultaneously. Infection with emerging pathogens may alter the thermal thresholds of hosts. However, the effects of fungal infection on host thermal limits have not been examined. Moreover, the influence of infections on the heat tolerance of hosts has rarely been investigated within the context of realistic thermal acclimation regimes and potential anthropogenic climate change. We tested for effects of fungal infection on host thermal tolerance in a model system: frogs infected with the chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Infection reduced the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) of hosts by up to ~4 °C. Acclimation to realistic daily heat pulses enhanced thermal tolerance among infected individuals, but the magnitude of the parasitism effect usually exceeded the magnitude of the acclimation effect. In ectotherms, behaviors that elevate body temperature may decrease parasite performance or increase immune function, thereby reducing infection risk or the intensity of existing infections. However, increased heat sensitivity from infections may discourage these protective behaviors, even at temperatures below critical maxima, tipping the balance in favor of the parasite. We conclude that infectious disease could lead to increased uncertainty in estimates of species' vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28839065, year = {2017}, author = {Wang, C and Wang, F}, title = {China can lead on climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {357}, number = {6353}, pages = {764}, doi = {10.1126/science.aao2785}, pmid = {28839065}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid28835696, year = {2017}, author = {Dai, Y and Yang, J and Hu, W and Zahoor, R and Chen, B and Zhao, W and Meng, Y and Zhou, Z}, title = {Simulative Global Warming Negatively Affects Cotton Fiber Length through Shortening Fiber Rapid Elongation Duration.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {9264}, pmid = {28835696}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Global warming could possibly increase the air temperature by 1.8-4.0 °C in the coming decade. Cotton fiber is an essential raw material for the textile industry. Fiber length, which was found negatively related to the excessively high temperature, determines yarn quality to a great extent. To investigate the effects of global warming on cotton fiber length and its mechaism, cottons grown in artificially elevated temperature (34.6/30.5 °C, Tday/Tnight) and ambient temperature (31.6/27.3 °C) regions have been investigated. Becaused of the high sensitivities of enzymes V-ATPase, PEPC, and genes GhXTH1 and GhXTH2 during fiber elongation when responding to high temperature stress, the fiber rapid elongation duration (FRED) has been shortened, which led to a significant suppression on final fiber length. Through comprehensive analysis, Tnight had a great influence on fiber elongation, which means Tn could be deemed as an ideal index for forecasting the degree of high temperature stress would happen to cotton fiber property in future. Therefore, we speculate the global warming would bring unfavorable effects on cotton fiber length, which needs to take actions in advance for minimizing the loss in cotton production.}, }
@article {pmid28835214, year = {2017}, author = {Nkanga, MSN and Longo-Mbenza, B and Adeniyi, OV and Ngwidiwo, JB and Katawandja, AL and Kazadi, PRB and Nzonzila, AN}, title = {Ageing, exposure to pollution, and interactions between climate change and local seasons as oxidant conditions predicting incident hematologic malignancy at KINSHASA University clinics, Democratic Republic of CONGO (DRC).}, journal = {BMC cancer}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {559}, pmid = {28835214}, issn = {1471-2407}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; *Aging ; *Climate Change ; Democratic Republic of the Congo ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; Female ; HIV Infections/complications ; Hematologic Neoplasms/*epidemiology/*etiology ; Hospitals, University ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Oxidants ; Population Surveillance ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Regression Analysis ; Risk Factors ; *Seasons ; Sepsis/complications/microbiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The global burden of hematologic malignancy (HM) is rapidly rising with aging, exposure to polluted environments, and global and local climate variability all being well-established conditions of oxidative stress. However, there is currently no information on the extent and predictors of HM at Kinshasa University Clinics (KUC), DR Congo (DRC). This study evaluated the impact of bio-clinical factors, exposure to polluted environments, and interactions between global climate changes (EL Nino and La Nina) and local climate (dry and rainy seasons) on the incidence of HM.<br><br>METHODS: This hospital-based prospective cohort study was conducted at Kinshasa University Clinics in DR Congo. A total of 105 black African adult patients with anaemia between 2009 and 2016 were included. HM was confirmed by morphological typing according to the French-American-British (FAB) Classification System. Gender, age, exposure to traffic pollution and garages/stations, global climate variability (El Nino and La Nina), and local climate (dry and rainy seasons) were potential independent variables to predict incident HM using Cox regression analysis and Kaplan Meier curves.<br><br>RESULTS: Out of the total 105 patients, 63 experienced incident HM, with an incidence rate of 60%. After adjusting for gender, HIV/AIDS, and other bio-clinical factors, the most significant independent predictors of HM were age&#xa0;&#x2265;&#xa0;55&#xa0;years (HR&#xa0;=&#xa0;2.4; 95% CI 1.4-4.3; P&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.003), exposure to pollution and garages or stations (HR&#xa0;=&#xa0;4.9; 95% CI 2-12.1; P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001), combined local dry season + La Nina (HR&#xa0;=&#xa0;4.6; 95%CI 1.8-11.8; P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001), and combined local dry season + El Nino (HR&#xa0;=&#xa0;4; 95% CI 1.6-9.7; P&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.004). HM types included acute myeloid leukaemia (28.6% n&#xa0;=&#xa0;18), multiple myeloma (22.2% n&#xa0;=&#xa0;14), myelodysplastic syndromes (15.9% n&#xa0;=&#xa0;10), chronic myeloid leukaemia (15.9% n&#xa0;=&#xa0;10), chronic lymphoid leukaemia (9.5% n&#xa0;=&#xa0;6), and acute lymphoid leukaemia (7.9% n&#xa0;=&#xa0;5). After adjusting for confounders using Cox regression analysis, age&#xa0;&#x2265;&#xa0;55&#xa0;years, exposure to pollution, combined local dry season + La Nina and combined local dry season + El Nino were the most significant predictors of incident hematologic malignancy.<br><br>CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the importance of aging, pollution, the dry season, El Nino and La Nina as related to global warming as determinants of hematologic malignancies among African patients from Kinshasa, DR Congo. Cancer registries in DRC and other African countries will provide more robust database for future researches on haematological malignancies in the region.}, }
@article {pmid28834176, year = {2017}, author = {Veenema, TG and Thornton, CP and Lavin, RP and Bender, AK and Seal, S and Corley, A}, title = {Climate Change-Related Water Disasters' Impact on Population Health.}, journal = {Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing}, volume = {49}, number = {6}, pages = {625-634}, doi = {10.1111/jnu.12328}, pmid = {28834176}, issn = {1547-5069}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; *Disasters ; *Floods ; Humans ; Population Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: Rising global temperatures have resulted in an increased frequency and severity of cyclones, hurricanes, and flooding in many parts of the world. These climate change-related water disasters (CCRWDs) have a devastating impact on communities and the health of residents. Clinicians and policymakers require a substantive body of evidence on which to base planning, prevention, and disaster response to these events. The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the literature concerning the impact of CCRWDs on public health in order to identify factors in these events that are amenable to preparedness and mitigation. Ultimately, this evidence could be used by nurses to advocate for greater preparedness initiatives and inform national and international disaster policy.<br><br>DESIGN AND METHODS: A systematic literature review of publications identified through a comprehensive search of five relevant databases (PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature [CINAHL], Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science) was conducted using a modified Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach in January 2017 to describe major themes and associated factors of the impact of CCRWDs on population health.<br><br>FINDINGS: Three major themes emerged: environmental disruption resulting in exposure to toxins, population susceptibility, and health systems infrastructure (failure to plan-prepare-mitigate, inadequate response, and lack of infrastructure). Direct health impact was characterized by four major categories: weather-related morbidity and mortality, waterborne diseases/water-related illness, vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, and psychiatric/mental health effects. Scope and duration of the event are factors that exacerbate the impact of CCRWDs. Discussion of specific factors amenable to mitigation was limited. Flooding as an event was overrepresented in this analysis (60%), and the majority of the research reviewed was conducted in high-income or upper middle-/high-income countries (62%), despite the fact that low-income countries bear a disproportionate share of the burden on morbidity and mortality from CCRWDs.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Empirical evidence related to CCRWDs is predominately descriptive in nature, characterizing the cascade of climatic shifts leading to major environmental disruption and exposure to toxins, and their resultant morbidity and mortality. There is inadequate representation of research exploring potentially modifiable factors associated with CCRWDs and their impact on population health. This review lays the foundation for a wide array of further areas of analysis to explore the negative health impacts of CCRWDs and for nurses to take a leadership role in identifying and advocating for evidence-based policies to plan, prevent, or mitigate these effects.<br><br>CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Nurses comprise the largest global healthcare workforce and are in a position to advocate for disaster preparedness for CCRWDs, develop more robust environmental health policies, and work towards mitigating exposure to environmental toxins that may threaten human health.}, }
@article {pmid28833977, year = {2018}, author = {Pauly, D and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Sound physiological knowledge and principles in modeling shrinking of fishes under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {e15-e26}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13831}, pmid = {28833977}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Oxygen Consumption ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {One of the main expected responses of marine fishes to ocean warming is decrease in body size, as supported by evidence from empirical data and theoretical modeling. The theoretical underpinning for fish shrinking is that the oxygen supply to large fish size cannot be met by their gills, whose surface area cannot keep up with the oxygen demand by their three-dimensional bodies. However, Lefevre et al. (Global Change Biology, 2017, 23, 3449-3459) argue against such theory. Here, we re-assert, with the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT), that gills, which must retain the properties of open surfaces because their growth, even while hyperallometric, cannot keep up with the demand of growing three-dimensional bodies. Also, we show that a wide range of biological features of fish and other water-breathing organisms can be understood when gill area limitation is used as an explanation. We also note that an alternative to GOLT, offering a more parsimonious explanation for these features of water-breathers has not been proposed. Available empirical evidence corroborates predictions of decrease in body sizes under ocean warming based on GOLT, with the magnitude of the predicted change increases when using more species-specific parameter values of metabolic scaling.}, }
@article {pmid28833814, year = {2018}, author = {Jiménez, L and Rühland, KM and Jeziorski, A and Smol, JP and Pérez-Martínez, C}, title = {Climate change and Saharan dust drive recent cladoceran and primary production changes in remote alpine lakes of Sierra Nevada, Spain.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {e139-e158}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13878}, pmid = {28833814}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Africa, Northern ; Animals ; Biota ; Cladocera/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Dust ; Ecosystem ; Lakes/*chemistry ; Spain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Recent anthropogenic climate change and the exponential increase over the past few decades of Saharan dust deposition, containing ecologically important inputs of phosphorus (P) and calcium (Ca), are potentially affecting remote aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we examine changes in cladoceran assemblage composition and chlorophyll-a concentrations over the past ~150 years from high-resolution, well-dated sediment cores retrieved from six remote high mountain lakes in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Southern Spain, a region affected by Saharan dust deposition. In each lake, marked shifts in cladoceran assemblages and chlorophyll-a concentrations in recent decades indicate a regional-scale response to climate and Saharan dust deposition. Chlorophyll-a concentrations have increased since the 1970s, consistent with a response to rising air temperatures and the intensification of atmospheric deposition of Saharan P. Similar shifts in cladoceran taxa across lakes began over a century ago, but have intensified over the past ~50 years, concurrent with trends in regional air temperature, precipitation, and increased Saharan dust deposition. An abrupt increase in the relative abundance of the benthic cladoceran Alona quadrangularis at the expense of Chydorus sphaericus, and a significant increase in Daphnia pulex gr. was a common trend in these softwater lakes. Differences in the magnitude and timing of these changes are likely due to catchment and lake-specific differences. In contrast with other alpine lakes that are often affected by acid deposition, atmospheric Ca deposition appears to be a significant explanatory factor, among others, for the changes in the lake biota of Sierra Nevada that has not been previously considered. The effects observed in Sierra Nevada are likely occurring in other Mediterranean lake districts, especially in softwater, oligotrophic lakes. The predicted increases in global temperature and Saharan dust deposition in the future will further impact the ecological condition of these ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid28831405, year = {2017}, author = {Thompson, JE}, title = {Survey data reflecting popular opinions of the causes and mitigation of climate change.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {412-439}, doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2017.07.060}, pmid = {28831405}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {The data presented within this manuscript reports the results of a 20-question opinion survey concerning popular beliefs regarding the causes of and possible mitigation of climate change. The results and opinions from 746 survey respondents are presented. The data reflects certain misconceptions of climate change, and is useful for investigators to begin forming opinions of the public's knowledge regarding the potentially inflammatory topics of climate change, greenhouse gases, and geo-engineering.}, }
@article {pmid28831026, year = {2017}, author = {Beans, C}, title = {Science and Culture: Arctic photographers bring climate change into focus.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {34}, pages = {8897-8899}, pmid = {28831026}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid28827678, year = {2017}, author = {Shama, LNS}, title = {The mean and variance of climate change in the oceans: hidden evolutionary potential under stochastic environmental variability in marine sticklebacks.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {8889}, pmid = {28827678}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Increasing climate variability may pose an even greater risk to species than climate warming because temperature fluctuations can amplify adverse impacts of directional warming on fitness-related traits. Here, the influence of directional warming and increasing climate variability on marine stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus) offspring size variation was investigated by simulating changes to the mean and variance of ocean temperatures predicted under climate change. Reproductive traits of mothers and offspring size reaction norms across four climate scenarios were examined to assess the roles of standing genetic variation, transgenerational and within-generation plasticity in adaptive potential. Mothers acclimated to directional warming produced smaller eggs than mothers in constant, ambient temperatures, whereas mothers in a predictably variable environment (weekly change between temperatures) produced a range of egg sizes, possibly reflecting a diversified bet hedging strategy. Offspring size post-hatch was mostly influenced by genotype by environment interactions and not transgenerational effects. Offspring size reaction norms also differed depending on the type of environmental predictability (predictably variable vs. stochastic), with offspring reaching the largest sizes in the stochastic environment. Release of cryptic genetic variation for offspring size in the stochastic environment suggests hidden evolutionary potential in this wild population to respond to changes in environmental predictability.}, }
@article {pmid28827347, year = {2017}, author = {Zhang, Z and Zimmermann, NE and Stenke, A and Li, X and Hodson, EL and Zhu, G and Huang, C and Poulter, B}, title = {Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {36}, pages = {9647-9652}, pmid = {28827347}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Wetland methane (CH4) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO2, CH4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m[-2] to 0.19 W·m[-2] by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.}, }
@article {pmid28827324, year = {2017}, author = {Bardeen, CG and Garcia, RR and Toon, OB and Conley, AJ}, title = {On transient climate change at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {36}, pages = {E7415-E7424}, pmid = {28827324}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth's surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition.}, }
@article {pmid28821792, year = {2017}, author = {Zou, M and Niu, J and Kang, S and Li, X and Lu, H}, title = {The contribution of human agricultural activities to increasing evapotranspiration is significantly greater than climate change effect over Heihe agricultural region.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {8805}, pmid = {28821792}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component linking the water, energy, and carbon cycles. Understanding changes in ET and the relative contribution rates of human activity and of climate change at the basin scale is important for sound water resources management. In this study, changes in ET in the Heihe agricultural region in northwest China during 1984-2014 were examined using remotely-sensed ET data with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Correlation analysis identified the dominant factors that influence change in ET per unit area and those that influence change in total ET. Factor analysis identified the relative contribution rates of the dominant factors in each case. The results show that human activity, which includes factors for agronomy and irrigation, and climate change, including factors for precipitation and relative humidity, both contribute to increases in ET per unit area at rates of 60.93% and 28.01%, respectively. Human activity, including the same factors, and climate change, including factors for relative humidity and wind speed, contribute to increases in total ET at rates of 53.86% and 35.68%, respectively. Overall, in the Heihe agricultural region, the contribution of human agricultural activities to increased ET was significantly greater than that of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28818712, year = {2017}, author = {Fernandez, MA and Bucaram, S and Renteria, W}, title = {(Non-) robustness of vulnerability assessments to climate change: An application to New Zealand.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {203}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {400-412}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.07.054}, pmid = {28818712}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; New Zealand ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Assessments of vulnerability to climate change are a key element to inform climate policy and research. Assessments based on the aggregation of indicators have a strong appeal for their simplicity but are at risk of over-simplification and uncertainty. This paper explores the non-robustness of indicators-based assessments to changes in assumptions on the degree of substitution or compensation between indicators. Our case study is a nationwide assessment for New Zealand. We found that the ranking of geographic areas is sensitive to different parameterisations of the aggregation function, that is, areas that are categorised as highly vulnerable may switch to the least vulnerable category even with respect to the same climate hazards and population groups. Policy implications from the assessments are then compromised. Though indicators-based approaches may help on identifying drivers of vulnerability, there are weak grounds to use them to recommend mitigation or adaptation decisions given the high level of uncertainty because of non-robustness.}, }
@article {pmid28817596, year = {2017}, author = {Gray, LK and Clarke, C and Wint, GRW and Moran, JA}, title = {Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {e0183132}, pmid = {28817596}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Magnoliopsida/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them.}, }
@article {pmid28816471, year = {2017}, author = {Juanchich, M and Sirota, M}, title = {How much will the sea level rise? Outcome selection and subjective probability in climate change predictions.}, journal = {Journal of experimental psychology. Applied}, volume = {23}, number = {4}, pages = {386-402}, doi = {10.1037/xap0000137}, pmid = {28816471}, issn = {1939-2192}, mesh = {Adult ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Oceans and Seas ; *Probability ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {We tested whether people focus on extreme outcomes to predict climate change and assessed the gap between the frequency of the predicted outcome and its perceived probability while controlling for climate change beliefs. We also tested 2 cost-effective interventions to reduce the preference for extreme outcomes and the frequency-probability gap by manipulating the probabilistic format: numerical or dual-verbal-numerical. In 4 experiments, participants read a scenario featuring a distribution of sea level rises, selected a sea rise to complete a prediction (e.g., "It is 'unlikely' that the sea level will rise . . . inches") and judged the likelihood of this sea rise occurring. Results showed that people have a preference for predicting extreme climate change outcomes in verbal predictions (59% in Experiments 1-4) and that this preference was not predicted by climate change beliefs. Results also showed an important gap between the predicted outcome frequency and participants' perception of the probability that it would occur. The dual-format reduced the preference for extreme outcomes for low and medium probability predictions but not for high ones, and none of the formats consistently reduced the frequency-probability gap. (PsycINFO Database Record}, }
@article {pmid28816416, year = {2018}, author = {Bamminger, C and Poll, C and Marhan, S}, title = {Offsetting global warming-induced elevated greenhouse gas emissions from an arable soil by biochar application.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {e318-e334}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13871}, pmid = {28816416}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Charcoal ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Greenhouse Gases ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Global warming will likely enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils. Due to its slow decomposability, biochar is widely recognized as effective in long-term soil carbon (C) sequestration and in mitigation of soil GHG emissions. In a long-term soil warming experiment (+2.5 °C, since July 2008) we studied the effect of applying high-temperature Miscanthus biochar (0, 30 t/ha, since August 2013) on GHG emissions and their global warming potential (GWP) during 2 years in a temperate agroecosystem. Crop growth, physical and chemical soil properties, temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Rs), and metabolic quotient (qCO2) were investigated to yield further information about single effects of soil warming and biochar as well as on their interactions. Soil warming increased total CO2 emissions by 28% over 2 years. The effect of warming on soil respiration did not level off as has often been observed in less intensively managed ecosystems. However, the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was not affected by warming. Overall, biochar had no effect on most of the measured parameters, suggesting its high degradation stability and its low influence on microbial C cycling even under elevated soil temperatures. In contrast, biochar × warming interactions led to higher total N2 O emissions, possibly due to accelerated N-cycling at elevated soil temperature and to biochar-induced changes in soil properties and environmental conditions. Methane uptake was not affected by soil warming or biochar. The incorporation of biochar-C into soil was estimated to offset warming-induced elevated GHG emissions for 25 years. Our results highlight the suitability of biochar for C sequestration in cultivated temperate agricultural soil under a future elevated temperature. However, the increased N2 O emissions under warming limit the GHG mitigation potential of biochar.}, }
@article {pmid28815911, year = {2018}, author = {Purcell, R and McGirr, J}, title = {Rural health service managers' perspectives on preparing rural health services for climate change.}, journal = {The Australian journal of rural health}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {20-25}, doi = {10.1111/ajr.12374}, pmid = {28815911}, issn = {1440-1584}, mesh = {Adult ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; Female ; Health Personnel/*psychology ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; New South Wales ; Rural Health Services/*organization &amp; administration ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To determine health service managers' (HSMs) recommendations on strengthening the health service response to climate change.<br><br>DESIGN: Self-administered survey in paper or electronic format.<br><br>SETTING: Rural south-west of New South Wales.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: Health service managers working in rural remote metropolitan areas 3-7.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of respondents identifying preferred strategies for preparation of rural health services for climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: There were 43 participants (53% response rate). Most respondents agreed that there is scepticism regarding climate change among health professionals (70%, n = 30) and community members (72%, n = 31). Over 90% thought that climate change would impact the health of rural populations in the future with regard to heat-related illnesses, mental health, skin cancer and water security. Health professionals and government were identified as having key leadership roles on climate change and health in rural communities. Over 90% of the respondents believed that staff and community in local health districts (LHDs) should be educated about the health impacts of climate change. Public health education facilitated by State or Federal Government was the preferred method of educating community members, and education facilitated by the LHD was the preferred method for educating health professionals.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Health service managers hold important health leadership roles within rural communities and their health services. The study highlights the scepticism towards climate change among health professionals and community members in rural Australia. It identifies the important role of rural health services in education and advocacy on the health impacts of climate change and identifies recommended methods of public health education for community members and health professionals.}, }
@article {pmid28814652, year = {2017}, author = {Kingsolver, JG and Buckley, LB}, title = {Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {284}, number = {1860}, pages = {}, pmid = {28814652}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*genetics ; Altitude ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Butterflies/*genetics/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Microclimate ; Models, Biological ; Phenotype ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments.}, }
@article {pmid28813491, year = {2017}, author = {Naya, DE and Naya, H and Cook, J}, title = {Climate change and body size trends in aquatic and terrestrial endotherms: Does habitat matter?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {e0183051}, pmid = {28813491}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; Ecosystem ; *Mammals ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {Several studies have claimed that reduction in body size comprises a nearly universal response to global warming; however, doubts about the validity of this pattern for endothermic species have been raised recently. Accordingly, we assessed temporal changes in body mass for 27 bird and 17 mammal species, to evaluate if a reduction in body size during the 20th century is a widespread phenomenon among endothermic vertebrates. In addition, we tested if there are differences in the temporal change in size between birds and mammals, aquatic and terrestrial species, and the first and second half of the 20th century. Overall, six species increased their body mass, 21 species showed no significant changes in size, and 17 species decreased their body mass during the 20th century. Temporal changes in body mass were similar for birds and mammals, but strongly differ between aquatic and terrestrial species: while most of the aquatic species increased or did not change in body mass, most terrestrial species decreased in size. In addition, we found that, at least in terrestrial birds, the mean value of the correlation between body mass and year of collection differs between the first half and the second half of the 20th century, being close to zero for the former period but negative for the later one. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing that temporal changes in body mass differ between aquatic and terrestrial species in both mammals and birds.}, }
@article {pmid28812743, year = {2017}, author = {Bowler, DE and Hof, C and Haase, P and Kröncke, I and Schweiger, O and Adrian, R and Baert, L and Bauer, HG and Blick, T and Brooker, RW and Dekoninck, W and Domisch, S and Eckmann, R and Hendrickx, F and Hickler, T and Klotz, S and Kraberg, A and Kühn, I and Matesanz, S and Meschede, A and Neumann, H and O'Hara, R and Russell, DJ and Sell, AF and Sonnewald, M and Stoll, S and Sundermann, A and Tackenberg, O and Türkay, M and Valladares, F and van Herk, K and van Klink, R and Vermeulen, R and Voigtländer, K and Wagner, R and Welk, E and Wiemers, M and Wiltshire, KH and Böhning-Gaese, K}, title = {Cross-realm assessment of climate change impacts on species' abundance trends.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {67}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-016-0067}, pmid = {28812743}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Climate change, land-use change, pollution and exploitation are among the main drivers of species' population trends; however, their relative importance is much debated. We used a unique collection of over 1,000 local population time series in 22 communities across terrestrial, freshwater and marine realms within central Europe to compare the impacts of long-term temperature change and other environmental drivers from 1980 onwards. To disentangle different drivers, we related species' population trends to species- and driver-specific attributes, such as temperature and habitat preference or pollution tolerance. We found a consistent impact of temperature change on the local abundances of terrestrial species. Populations of warm-dwelling species increased more than those of cold-dwelling species. In contrast, impacts of temperature change on aquatic species' abundances were variable. Effects of temperature preference were more consistent in terrestrial communities than effects of habitat preference, suggesting that the impacts of temperature change have become widespread for recent changes in abundance within many terrestrial communities of central Europe.}, }
@article {pmid28812614, year = {2017}, author = {Dey, CJ and Dale, J}, title = {Climate change ecology: Hot under the collar.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {60}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-016-0060}, pmid = {28812614}, issn = {2397-334X}, }
@article {pmid28812603, year = {2017}, author = {Evans, SR and Gustafsson, L}, title = {Climate change upends selection on ornamentation in a wild bird.}, journal = {Nature ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {39}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-016-0039}, pmid = {28812603}, issn = {2397-334X}, abstract = {Secondary sexual traits have high heritabilities and are exposed to strong, environmentally sensitive selection, and so are expected to evolve rapidly in response to sustained environmental change. We examine the eco-evolutionary dynamics of ornament expression in a long-term study population of collared flycatchers, Ficedula albicollis, in which forehead patch size, which positively influences male reproductive success, declined markedly over 34 years. Annual fitness selection on forehead patch size switched from positive to negative during the study, a reversal that is accounted for by rising spring temperatures at the breeding site: highly ornamented males were selectively favoured following cold breeding seasons but selected against following warm breeding seasons. An 'individual animal model' describes a decline in the genetic values of breeding males during the study, which simulations showed was unlikely to result from drift alone. These results are thus consistent with adaptive evolution of a sexually selected trait in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28811606, year = {2017}, author = {Xue, L and Yang, F and Yang, C and Chen, X and Zhang, L and Chi, Y and Yang, G}, title = {Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {8254}, pmid = {28811606}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Understanding contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in streamflow is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the double mass curve method (DMC) and the Budyko methods. The time series (1960~2015) are divided into three periods: the prior impacted period (1960~1972) and the two post impacted periods, 1973~1986 and 1987~2015 with trend analysis. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in deduction in the streamflow in TRB with contribution of 144.6% to 120.68% during the post impacted period I and 228.68% to 140.38% during the post impacted period II. Climatic variables accounted for 20.68%~44.6% of the decrease during the post impacted period I and 40.38% ~128.68% during the post impacted period II. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the streamflow alteration was most sensitive to changes in landscape parameters. The aridity index and all the elasticities showed an obvious increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream in the TRB. Our study suggests that it is important to take effective measures for sustainable development of eco-hydrological and socio-economic systems in the TRB.}, }
@article {pmid28811557, year = {2017}, author = {Jin, Z and Liang, W and Yang, Y and Zhang, W and Yan, J and Chen, X and Li, S and Mo, X}, title = {Separating Vegetation Greening and Climate Change Controls on Evapotranspiration trend over the Loess Plateau.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {8191}, pmid = {28811557}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key ecological process connecting the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system, and its changes seriously affects the regional distribution of available water resources, especially in the arid and semiarid regions. With the Grain-for-Green project implemented in the Loess Plateau (LP) since 1999, water and heat distribution across the region have experienced great changes. Here, we investigate the changes and associated driving forces of ET in the LP from 2000 to 2012 using a remote sensing-based evapotranspiration model. Results show that annual ET significantly increased by 3.4 mm per year (p = 0.05) with large interannual fluctuations during the study period. This trend is higher than coincident increases in precipitation (2.0 mm yr[-2]), implying a possible pressure of water availability. The correlation analysis showed that vegetation change is the major controlling factor on interannual variability of annual ET with ~52.8% of pixels scattered in the strip region from the northeastern to southwestern parts of the LP. Further factorial analysis suggested that vegetation greening is the primary driver of the rises of ET over the study period relative to climate change. Our study can provide an improved understanding of the effects of vegetation and climate change on terrestrial ecosystem ET in the LP.}, }
@article {pmid28811512, year = {2017}, author = {Almagro, A and Oliveira, PTS and Nearing, MA and Hagemann, S}, title = {Projected climate change impacts in rainfall erosivity over Brazil.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {8130}, pmid = {28811512}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on soil erosion may bring serious economic, social and environmental problems. However, few studies have investigated these impacts on continental scales. Here we assessed the influence of climate change on rainfall erosivity across Brazil. We used observed rainfall data and downscaled climate model output based on Hadley Center Global Environment Model version 2 (HadGEM2-ES) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate version 5 (MIROC5), forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5, to estimate and map rainfall erosivity and its projected changes across Brazil. We estimated mean values of 10,437 mm ha[-1] h[-1] year[-1] for observed data (1980-2013) and 10,089 MJ mm ha[-1] h[-1] year[-1] and 10,585 MJ mm ha[-1] h[-1] year[-1] for HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5, respectively (1961-2005). Our analysis suggests that the most affected regions, with projected rainfall erosivity increases ranging up to 109% in the period 2007-2040, are northeastern and southern Brazil. Future decreases of as much as -71% in the 2071-2099 period were estimated for the southeastern, central and northwestern parts of the country. Our results provide an overview of rainfall erosivity in Brazil that may be useful for planning soil and water conservation, and for promoting water and food security.}, }
@article {pmid28811163, year = {2017}, author = {Noctor, G and Mhamdi, A}, title = {Climate Change, CO2, and Defense: The Metabolic, Redox, and Signaling Perspectives.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {22}, number = {10}, pages = {857-870}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2017.07.007}, pmid = {28811163}, issn = {1878-4372}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; Climate Change ; Disease Resistance ; Oxidation-Reduction ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/immunology/*metabolism ; Salicylic Acid/metabolism ; *Signal Transduction ; }, abstract = {Ongoing human-induced changes in the composition of the atmosphere continue to stimulate interest in the effects of high CO2 on plants, but its potential impact on inducible plant defense pathways remains poorly defined. Recently, several studies have reported that growth at elevated CO2 is sufficient to induce defenses such as the salicylic acid pathway, thereby increasing plant resistance to pathogens. These reports contrast with evidence that defense pathways can be promoted by photorespiration, which is inhibited at high CO2. Here, we review signaling, metabolic, and redox processes modulated by CO2 levels and discuss issues to be resolved in elucidating the relationships between primary metabolism, inducible defense, and biotic stress resistance.}, }
@article {pmid28810512, year = {2017}, author = {Sfez, S and De Meester, S and Dewulf, J}, title = {Co-digestion of rice straw and cow dung to supply cooking fuel and fertilizers in rural India: Impact on human health, resource flows and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {609}, number = {}, pages = {1600-1615}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.150}, pmid = {28810512}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Animals ; *Biofuels ; Cattle ; Climate Change ; *Cooking ; Environment ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Humans ; India ; *Manure ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Oryza/*chemistry ; Prospective Studies ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Anaerobic digestion of cow dung with new feedstock such as crop residues to increase the biogas potential is an option to help overcoming several issues faced by India. Anaerobic digestion provides biogas that can replace biomass cooking fuels and reduce indoor air pollution. It also provides digestate, a fertilizer that can contribute to compensate nutrient shortage on agricultural land. Moreover, it avoids the burning of rice straw in the fields which contributes to air pollution in India and climate change globally. Not only the technical and economical feasibility but also the environmental sustainability of such systems needs to be assessed. The potential effects of implementing community digesters co-digesting cow dung and rice straw on carbon and nutrients flows, human health, resource efficiency and climate change are analyzed by conducting a Substance Flow Analysis and a Life Cycle Assessment. The implementation of the technology is considered at the level of the state of Chhattisgarh. Implementing this scenario reduces the dependency of the rural community to nitrogen and phosphorus from synthetic fertilizers only by 0.1 and 1.6%, respectively, but the dependency of farmers to potassium from synthetic fertilizers by 31%. The prospective scenario returns more organic carbon to agricultural land and thus has a potential positive effect on soil quality. The implementation of the prospective scenario can reduce the health impact of the local population by 48%, increase the resource efficiency of the system by 60% and lower the impact on climate change by 13%. This study highlights the large potential of anaerobic digestion to overcome the aforementioned issues faced by India. It demonstrates the need to couple local and global assessments and to conduct analyses at the substance level to assess the sustainability of such systems.}, }
@article {pmid28810027, year = {2017}, author = {Kaelin, WG}, title = {Climate Change: What Would Lincoln Do?.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {318}, number = {7}, pages = {611}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2017.6999}, pmid = {28810027}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Famous Persons ; History, 19th Century ; National Academy of Sciences, U.S./*history ; *Science/history ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid28808336, year = {2017}, author = {Holtvoeth, J and Vogel, H and Valsecchi, V and Lindhorst, K and Schouten, S and Wagner, B and Wolff, GA}, title = {Linear and non-linear responses of vegetation and soils to glacial-interglacial climate change in a Mediterranean refuge.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {8121}, pmid = {28808336}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The impact of past global climate change on local terrestrial ecosystems and their vegetation and soil organic matter (OM) pools is often non-linear and poorly constrained. To address this, we investigated the response of a temperate habitat influenced by global climate change in a key glacial refuge, Lake Ohrid (Albania, Macedonia). We applied independent geochemical and palynological proxies to a sedimentary archive from the lake over the penultimate glacial-interglacial transition (MIS 6-5) and the following interglacial (MIS 5e-c), targeting lake surface temperature as an indicator of regional climatic development and the supply of pollen and biomarkers from the vegetation and soil OM pools to determine local habitat response. Climate fluctuations strongly influenced the ecosystem, however, lake level controls the extent of terrace surfaces between the shoreline and mountain slopes and hence local vegetation, soil development and OM export to the lake sediments. There were two phases of transgressional soil erosion from terrace surfaces during lake-level rise in the MIS 6-5 transition that led to habitat loss for the locally dominant pine vegetation as the terraces drowned. Our observations confirm that catchment morphology plays a key role in providing refuges with low groundwater depth and stable soils during variable climate.}, }
@article {pmid28807298, year = {2017}, author = {Lawrence, KE and Summers, SR and Heath, ACG and McFadden, AMJ and Pulford, DJ and Tait, AB and Pomroy, WE}, title = {Using a rule-based envelope model to predict the expansion of habitat suitability within New Zealand for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis, with future projections based on two climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Veterinary parasitology}, volume = {243}, number = {}, pages = {226-234}, doi = {10.1016/j.vetpar.2017.07.001}, pmid = {28807298}, issn = {1873-2550}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Ixodidae/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; New Zealand ; }, abstract = {Haemaphysalis longicornis is the only species of tick present in New Zealand which infests livestock and is also the only competent vector for Theileria orientalis. Since 2012, New Zealand has suffered from an epidemic of infectious bovine anaemia associated with T. orientalis, an obligate intracellular protozoan parasite of cattle and buffaloes. The aim of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of habitat suitability of New Zealand for the tick H. longicornis using a simple rule-based climate envelope model, to validate the model against published data and use the validated model to project an expansion in habitat suitability for H. longicornis under two alternative climate change scenarios for the periods 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, relative to the climate of 1981-2010. A rule-based climate envelope model was developed based on the environmental requirements for off-host tick survival. The resulting model was validated against a maximum entropy environmental niche model of environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission and against a H. longicornis occurrence map. Validation was completed using the I-similarity statistic and by linear regression. The H. longicornis climate envelope model predicted that 75% of cattle farms in the North Island, 3% of cattle farms in the South Island and 54% of cattle farms in New Zealand overall have habitats potentially suitable for the establishment of H. longicornis. The validation methods showed an acceptable level of agreement between the envelope model and published data. Both of the climate change scenarios, for each of the time periods, projected only slight to moderate increases in the average farm habitat suitability scores for all the South Island regions. However, only for the West Coast, Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson regions did these increases in environmental suitability translate into an increased proportion of cattle farms with low or high H. longicornis habitat suitability. These results will have important implications for the geographical progression of Theileria-associated bovine anaemia (TABA) in New Zealand and will also be of interest to Haemaphysalis longicornis researchers in Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand.}, }
@article {pmid28807256, year = {2017}, author = {Barraclough, KA and Blashki, GA and Holt, SG and Agar, JWM}, title = {Climate change and kidney disease-threats and opportunities.}, journal = {Kidney international}, volume = {92}, number = {3}, pages = {526-530}, doi = {10.1016/j.kint.2017.03.047}, pmid = {28807256}, issn = {1523-1755}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases/*complications/transmission ; Disease Progression ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Kidney Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; Mosquito Vectors ; Wind ; }, }
@article {pmid28806731, year = {2017}, author = {Konowalik, K and Proćków, M and Proćków, J}, title = {Climatic niche of Selinum alatum (Apiaceae, Selineae), a new invasive plant species in Central Europe and its alterations according to the climate change scenarios: Are the European mountains threatened by invasion?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {e0182793}, pmid = {28806731}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Apiaceae/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Europe ; *Introduced Species ; Models, Theoretical ; Principal Component Analysis ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {In recent years, a few established populations of Selinum alatum have been found in the Eastern Carpathians outside its native range that is the Caucasus and the Armenian Highlands. The species is spreading predominantly in Poland where it can outcompete native plants in certain cases. This study addresses a potential climatic niche of the plant with the special aims to illuminate future spreading and indicate areas suitable for invasion. Our results show that the extent of the favourable habitat of the species is broader than currently known. This suggests that the plant has the ability to become a potential new element in some semi-natural or disturbed ecosystems associated with mountainous areas, especially in Central and Southern Europe. Future (2070) models mostly rendered similar suitability maps, but showed slight differences over particular areas and a contraction of suitable habitats, mainly in the northern part of the non-native range.}, }
@article {pmid28806483, year = {2017}, author = {Leffers, J and Levy, RM and Nicholas, PK and Sweeney, CF}, title = {Mandate for the Nursing Profession to Address Climate Change Through Nursing Education.}, journal = {Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing}, volume = {49}, number = {6}, pages = {679-687}, doi = {10.1111/jnu.12331}, pmid = {28806483}, issn = {1547-5069}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Education, Nursing/*organization &amp; administration ; Environmental Health/*education ; Humans ; Nursing Education Research ; Nursing Evaluation Research ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: The adverse health effects from climate change demand action from the nursing profession. This article examines the calls to action, the status of climate change in nursing education, and challenges and recommendations for nursing education related to climate change and human health.<br><br>ORGANIZING CONSTRUCT: Discussion paper.<br><br>FINDINGS: The integration of climate change into nursing education is essential so that knowledge, skills, and insights critical for clinical practice in our climate-changing world are incorporated in curricula, practice, research, and policy. Our Ecological Planetary Health Model offers a framework for nursing to integrate relevant climate change education into nursing curricula and professional nursing education. Nursing education can offer a leadership role to address the mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies for climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: An ecological framework is valuable for nursing education regarding climate change through its consideration of political, cultural, economic, and environmental interrelationships on human health and the health of the planet. Knowledge of climate change is important for integration into basic and advanced nursing education, as well as professional education for nurses to address adverse health impacts, climate change responses policy, and advocacy roles.<br><br>CLINICAL RELEVANCE: For current and future nurses to provide care within a climate-changing environment, nursing education has a mandate to integrate knowledge about climate change issues across all levels of nursing education. Competence in nursing practice follows from knowledge and skill acquisition gained from integration of climate change content into nursing education.}, }
@article {pmid28806469, year = {2017}, author = {George, M and Bruzzese, JM and Matura, LA}, title = {Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.}, journal = {Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing}, volume = {49}, number = {6}, pages = {644-652}, doi = {10.1111/jnu.12330}, pmid = {28806469}, issn = {1547-5069}, support = {K23 NR014885/NR/NINR NIH HHS/United States ; R21 NR016507/NR/NINR NIH HHS/United States ; R21 HD086448/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*epidemiology ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions.<br><br>APPROACH: This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk.<br><br>FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups.<br><br>CLINICAL RELEVANCE: While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action.}, }
@article {pmid28804989, year = {2018}, author = {Feng, X and Uriarte, M and González, G and Reed, S and Thompson, J and Zimmerman, JK and Murphy, L}, title = {Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {e213-e232}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13863}, pmid = {28804989}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; Biomass ; Carbon ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Models, Biological ; Plant Leaves ; Puerto Rico ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.}, }
@article {pmid28800413, year = {2017}, author = {Stowell, JD and Kim, YM and Gao, Y and Fu, JS and Chang, HH and Liu, Y}, title = {The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {108}, number = {}, pages = {41-50}, pmid = {28800413}, issn = {1873-6750}, support = {R21 ES020225/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; U01 EH000405/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; Forecasting ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Ozone/*analysis ; United States ; Vehicle Emissions ; }, abstract = {Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O3-related mortality.}, }
@article {pmid28798754, year = {2017}, author = {Fini, A and Brunetti, C and Loreto, F and Centritto, M and Ferrini, F and Tattini, M}, title = {Isoprene Responses and Functions in Plants Challenged by Environmental Pressures Associated to Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {1281}, pmid = {28798754}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The functional reasons for isoprene emission are still a matter of hot debate. It was hypothesized that isoprene biosynthesis evolved as an ancestral mechanism in plants adapted to high water availability, to cope with transient and recurrent oxidative stresses during their water-to-land transition. There is a tight association between isoprene emission and species hygrophily, suggesting that isoprene emission may be a favorable trait to cope with occasional exposure to stresses in mesic environments. The suite of morpho-anatomical traits does not allow a conservative water use in hygrophilic mesophytes challenged by the environmental pressures imposed or exacerbated by drought and heat stress. There is evidence that in stressed plants the biosynthesis of isoprene is uncoupled from photosynthesis. Because the biosynthesis of isoprene is costly, the great investment of carbon and energy into isoprene must have relevant functional reasons. Isoprene is effective in preserving the integrity of thylakoid membranes, not only through direct interaction with their lipid acyl chains, but also by up-regulating proteins associated with photosynthetic complexes and enhancing the biosynthesis of relevant membrane components, such as mono- and di-galactosyl-diacyl glycerols and unsaturated fatty acids. Isoprene may additionally protect photosynthetic membranes by scavenging reactive oxygen species. Here we explore the mode of actions and the potential significance of isoprene in the response of hygrophilic plants when challenged by severe stress conditions associated to rapid climate change in temperate climates, with special emphasis to the concomitant effect of drought and heat. We suggest that isoprene emission may be not a good estimate for its biosynthesis and concentration in severely droughted leaves, being the internal concentration of isoprene the important trait for stress protection.}, }
@article {pmid28797642, year = {2017}, author = {Dossey, L}, title = {Hot and Bothered: Violence, Aggression, and Global Warming.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {285-290}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2017.07.004}, pmid = {28797642}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {*Aggression ; Armed Conflicts ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Politics ; Sports ; United States ; *Violence ; }, }
@article {pmid28797480, year = {2017}, author = {Morley, SA and Nguyen, KD and Peck, LS and Lai, CH and Tan, KS}, title = {Can acclimation of thermal tolerance, in adults and across generations, act as a buffer against climate change in tropical marine ectotherms?.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {68}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {195-199}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2016.09.007}, pmid = {28797480}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Gastropoda/physiology ; *Temperature ; Thoracica/physiology ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Thermal acclimation capacity was investigated in adults of three tropical marine invertebrates, the subtidal barnacle Striatobalanus amaryllis, the intertidal gastropod Volegalea cochlidium and the intertidal barnacle Amphibalanus amphitrite. To test the relative importance of transgenerational acclimation, the developmental acclimation capacity of A. amphitrite was investigated in F1 and F2 generations reared at a subset of the same incubation temperatures. The increase in CTmax (measured through loss of key behavioural metrics) of F0 adults across the incubation temperature range 25.4-33.4°C was low: 0.00°C (V. cochlidium), 0.05°C (S. amaryllis) and 0.06°C (A. amphitrite) per 1°C increase in incubation temperature (the acclimation response ratio; ARR). Although the effect of generation was not significant, across the incubation temperature range of 29.4-33.4°C, the increase in CTmax in the F1 (0.30°C) and F2 (0.15°C) generations of A. amphitrite was greater than in the F0 (0.10°C). These correspond to ARR's of 0.03°C (F0), 0.08°C (F1) and 0.04°C (F2), respectively. The variability in CTmax between individuals in each treatment was maintained across generations, despite the high mortality of progeny. Further research is required to investigate the potential for transgenerational acclimation to provide an extra buffer for tropical marine species facing climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid28797067, year = {2017}, author = {Hirata, A and Nakamura, K and Nakao, K and Kominami, Y and Tanaka, N and Ohashi, H and Takano, KT and Takeuchi, W and Matsui, T}, title = {Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {e0182837}, pmid = {28797067}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pinus/*growth &amp; development ; *Plant Diseases ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.}, }
@article {pmid28796635, year = {2017}, author = {Ebi, KL and Ogden, NH and Semenza, JC and Woodward, A}, title = {Detecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {125}, number = {8}, pages = {085004}, pmid = {28796635}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Canada/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health/methods ; Europe/epidemiology ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Lyme Disease/*epidemiology/microbiology ; Vibrio Infections/*epidemiology/microbiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Detection and attribution of health impacts caused by climate change uses formal methods to determine a) whether the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has changed, and b) the extent to which that change could be attributed to climate change. There have been limited efforts to undertake detection and attribution analyses in health.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to show a range of approaches for conducting detection and attribution analyses.<br><br>RESULTS: Case studies for heatwaves, Lyme disease in Canada, and Vibrio emergence in northern Europe highlight evidence that climate change is adversely affecting human health. Changes in rates and geographic distribution of adverse health outcomes were detected, and, in each instance, a proportion of the observed changes could, in our judgment, be attributed to changes in weather patterns associated with climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results of detection and attribution studies can inform evidence-based risk management to reduce current, and plan for future, changes in health risks associated with climate change. Gaining a better understanding of the size, timing, and distribution of the climate change burden of disease and injury requires reliable long-term data sets, more knowledge about the factors that confound and modify the effects of climate on health, and refinement of analytic techniques for detection and attribution. At the same time, significant advances are possible in the absence of complete data and statistical certainty: there is a place for well-informed judgments, based on understanding of underlying processes and matching of patterns of health, climate, and other determinants of human well-being. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1509.}, }
@article {pmid28792956, year = {2017}, author = {Giannini, TC and Costa, WF and Cordeiro, GD and Imperatriz-Fonseca, VL and Saraiva, AM and Biesmeijer, J and Garibaldi, LA}, title = {Projected climate change threatens pollinators and crop production in Brazil.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {e0182274}, pmid = {28792956}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animals ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Pollination/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Animal pollination can impact food security since many crops depend on pollinators to produce fruits and seeds. However, the effects of projected climate change on crop pollinators and therefore on crop production are still unclear, especially for wild pollinators and aggregate community responses. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of 95 pollinator species of 13 Brazilian crops, and we estimated their relative impacts on crop production. We described these effects at the municipality level, and we assessed the crops that were grown, the gross production volume of these crops, the total crop production value, and the number of inhabitants. Overall, considering all crop species, we found that the projected climate change will reduce the probability of pollinator occurrence by almost 0.13 by 2050. Our models predict that almost 90% of the municipalities analyzed will face species loss. Decreases in the pollinator occurrence probability varied from 0.08 (persimmon) to 0.25 (tomato) and will potentially affect 9% (mandarin) to 100% (sunflower) of the municipalities that produce each crop. Municipalities in central and southern Brazil will potentially face relatively large impacts on crop production due to pollinator loss. In contrast, some municipalities in northern Brazil, particularly in the northwestern Amazon, could potentially benefit from climate change because pollinators of some crops may increase. The decline in the probability of pollinator occurrence is found in a large number of municipalities with the lowest GDP and will also likely affect some places where crop production is high (20% to 90% of the GDP) and where the number of inhabitants is also high (more than 6 million people). Our study highlights key municipalities where crops are economically important and where pollinators will potentially face the worst conditions due to climate change. However, pollinators may be able to find new suitable areas that have the potential to improve crop production. The results shown here could guide policy decisions for adapting to climate change and for preventing the loss of pollinator species and crop production.}, }
@article {pmid28790191, year = {2017}, author = {Vaidyanathan, G}, title = {Inner Workings: Climate change complicates fisheries modeling and management.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {32}, pages = {8435-8437}, pmid = {28790191}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods/*trends ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries/economics/ethics/*trends ; Population Dynamics ; }, }
@article {pmid28784716, year = {2017}, author = {Bakun, A}, title = {Climate change and ocean deoxygenation within intensified surface-driven upwelling circulations.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {2102}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2016.0327}, pmid = {28784716}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {Ocean deoxygenation often takes place in proximity to zones of intense upwelling. Associated concerns about amplified ocean deoxygenation arise from an arguable likelihood that coastal upwelling systems in the world's oceans may further intensify as anthropogenic climate change proceeds. Comparative examples discussed include the uniquely intense seasonal Somali Current upwelling, the massive upwelling that occurs quasi-continuously off Namibia and the recently appearing and now annually recurring 'dead zone' off the US State of Oregon. The evident 'transience' in causal dynamics off Oregon is somewhat mirrored in an interannual-scale intermittence in eruptions of anaerobically formed noxious gases off Namibia. A mechanistic scheme draws the three examples towards a common context in which, in addition to the obvious but politically problematic remedy of actually reducing 'greenhouse' gas emissions, the potentially manageable abundance of strongly swimming, finely gill raker-meshed small pelagic fish emerges as a plausible regulating factor.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.}, }
@article {pmid28781572, year = {2017}, author = {Klonner, G and Dullinger, I and Wessely, J and Bossdorf, O and Carboni, M and Dawson, W and Essl, F and Gattringer, A and Haeuser, E and van Kleunen, M and Kreft, H and Moser, D and Pergl, J and Pyšek, P and Thuiller, W and Weigelt, P and Winter, M and Dullinger, S}, title = {Will climate change increase hybridization risk between potential plant invaders and their congeners in Europe?.}, journal = {Diversity &amp; distributions}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {934-943}, pmid = {28781572}, issn = {1366-9516}, support = {I 1443/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, abstract = {AIM: Interspecific hybridization can promote invasiveness of alien species. In many regions of the world, public and domestic gardens contain a huge pool of non-native plants. Climate change may relax constraints on their naturalization and hence facilitate hybridization with related species in the resident flora. Here, we evaluate this possible increase in hybridization risk by predicting changes in the overlap of climatically suitable ranges between a set of garden plants and their congeners in the resident flora.<br><br>LOCATION: Europe.<br><br>METHODS: From the pool of alien garden plants, we selected those which (1) are not naturalized in Europe, but established outside their native range elsewhere in the world; (2) belong to a genus where interspecific hybridization has been previously reported; and (3) have congeners in the native and naturalized flora of Europe. For the resulting set of 34 alien ornamentals as well as for 173 of their European congeners, we fitted species distribution models and projected suitable ranges under the current climate and three future climate scenarios. Changes in range overlap between garden plants and congeners were then assessed by means of the true skill statistic.<br><br>RESULTS: Projections suggest that under a warming climate, suitable ranges of garden plants will increase, on average, while those of their congeners will remain constant or shrink, at least under the more severe climate scenarios. The mean overlap in ranges among congeners of the two groups will decrease. Variation among genera is pronounced; however, and for some congeners, range overlap is predicted to increase significantly.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Averaged across all modelled species, our results do not indicate that hybrids between potential future invaders and resident species will emerge more frequently in Europe when climate warms. These average trends do not preclude, however, that hybridization risk may considerably increase in particular genera.}, }
@article {pmid28781394, year = {2017}, author = {Marx, W and Haunschild, R and French, B and Bornmann, L}, title = {Slow reception and under-citedness in climate change research: A case study of Charles David Keeling, discoverer of the risk of global warming.}, journal = {Scientometrics}, volume = {112}, number = {2}, pages = {1079-1092}, pmid = {28781394}, issn = {0138-9130}, abstract = {The Keeling curve has become a chemical landmark, whereas the papers by Charles David Keeling about the underlying carbon dioxide measurements are not cited as often as can be expected against the backdrop of his final approval. In this bibliometric study, we analyze Keeling's papers as a case study for under-citedness of climate change publications. Three possible reasons for the under-citedness of Keeling's papers are discussed: (1) The discourse on global cooling at the starting time of Keeling's measurement program, (2) the underestimation of what is often seen as "routine science", and (3) the amount of implicit/informal citations at the expense of explicit/formal (reference-based) citations. Those reasons may have contributed more or less to the slow reception and the under-citedness of Keeling's seminal works.}, }
@article {pmid28781392, year = {2017}, author = {Nowack, PJ and Braesicke, P and Luke Abraham, N and Pyle, JA}, title = {On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming.}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {44}, number = {8}, pages = {3858-3866}, pmid = {28781392}, issn = {0094-8276}, abstract = {The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.}, }
@article {pmid28781385, year = {2017}, author = {Danise, S and Holland, SM}, title = {Faunal response to sea-level and climate change in a short-lived seaway: Jurassic of the Western Interior, USA.}, journal = {Palaeontology}, volume = {60}, number = {2}, pages = {213-232}, pmid = {28781385}, issn = {0031-0239}, abstract = {Understanding how regional ecosystems respond to sea-level and environmental perturbations is a main challenge in palaeoecology. Here we use quantitative abundance estimates, integrated within a sequence stratigraphic and environmental framework, to reconstruct benthic community changes through the 13 myr history of the Jurassic Sundance Seaway in the western United States. Sundance Seaway communities are notable for their low richness and high dominance relative to most areas globally in the Jurassic, and this probably reflects steep temperature and salinity gradients along the 2000 km length of the Seaway that hindered colonization of species from the open ocean. Ordination of samples shows a main turnover event at the Middle-Upper Jurassic transition, which coincided with a shift from carbonate to siliciclastic depositional systems in the Seaway, probably initiated by northward drift from subtropical latitudes to more humid temperate latitudes, and possibly global cooling. Turnover was not uniform across the onshore-offshore gradient, but was higher in offshore environments. The higher resilience of onshore communities to third-order sea-level fluctuations and to the change from a carbonate to a siliciclastic system was driven by a few abundant eurytopic species that persisted from the opening to the closing of the Seaway. Lower stability in offshore facies was instead controlled by the presence of more volatile stenotopic species. Such increased onshore stability in community composition contrasts with the well-documented onshore increase in taxonomic turnover rates, and this study underscores how ecological analyses of relative abundance may contrast with taxonomically based analyses. We also demonstrate the importance of a stratigraphic palaeobiological approach to reconstructing the links between environmental and faunal gradients, and how their evolution through time produces local stratigraphic changes in community composition.}, }
@article {pmid28774914, year = {2017}, author = {Grant, PR}, title = {Evolution, climate change, and extreme events.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {357}, number = {6350}, pages = {451-452}, doi = {10.1126/science.aao2067}, pmid = {28774914}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid28768884, year = {2017}, author = {Nawrot, R and Albano, PG and Chattopadhyay, D and Zuschin, M}, title = {Climate change and body size shift in Mediterranean bivalve assemblages: unexpected role of biological invasions.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {284}, number = {1860}, pages = {}, pmid = {28768884}, issn = {1471-2954}, support = {P 28983/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Indian Ocean ; *Introduced Species ; Mediterranean Sea ; }, abstract = {Body size is a synthetic functional trait determining many key ecosystem properties. Reduction in average body size has been suggested as one of the universal responses to global warming in aquatic ecosystems. Climate change, however, coincides with human-enhanced dispersal of alien species and can facilitate their establishment. We address effects of species introductions on the size structure of recipient communities using data on Red Sea bivalves entering the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal. We show that the invasion leads to increase in median body size of the Mediterranean assemblage. Alien species are significantly larger than native Mediterranean bivalves, even though they represent a random subset of the Red Sea species with respect to body size. The observed patterns result primarily from the differences in the taxonomic composition and body-size distributions of the source and recipient species pools. In contrast to the expectations based on the general temperature-size relationships in marine ectotherms, continued warming of the Mediterranean Sea indirectly leads to an increase in the proportion of large-bodied species in bivalve assemblages by accelerating the entry and spread of tropical aliens. These results underscore complex interactions between changing climate and species invasions in driving functional shifts in marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid28767136, year = {2018}, author = {Feldman, L and Hart, PS}, title = {Is There Any Hope? How Climate Change News Imagery and Text Influence Audience Emotions and Support for Climate Mitigation Policies.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {38}, number = {3}, pages = {585-602}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12868}, pmid = {28767136}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {Using a national sample, this study experimentally tests the effects of news visuals and texts that emphasize either the causes and impacts of climate change or actions that can be taken to address climate change. We test the effects of variations in text and imagery on discrete emotions (i.e., hope, fear, and anger) and, indirectly, on support for climate mitigation policies. Political ideology is examined as a moderator. The findings indicate that news images and texts that focus on climate-oriented actions can increase hope and, in the case of texts, decrease fear and anger, and these effects generally hold across the ideological spectrum. In turn, the influence of emotions on policy support depends on ideology: Hope and fear increase support for climate policies for all ideological groups but particularly conservatives, whereas anger polarizes the opinions of liberals and conservatives. Implications for climate change communication that appeals to emotions are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid28766042, year = {2018}, author = {Kjellstrom, T and Freyberg, C and Lemke, B and Otto, M and Briggs, D}, title = {Estimating population heat exposure and impacts on working people in conjunction with climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {3}, pages = {291-306}, pmid = {28766042}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate Change ; *Efficiency ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Humidity ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Middle Aged ; Models, Theoretical ; *Occupational Exposure ; Workplace ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Increased environmental heat levels as a result of climate change present a major challenge to the health, wellbeing and sustainability of human communities in already hot parts of this planet. This challenge has many facets from direct clinical health effects of daily heat exposure to indirect effects related to poor air quality, poor access to safe drinking water, poor access to nutritious and safe food and inadequate protection from disease vectors and environmental toxic chemicals. The increasing environmental heat is a threat to environmental sustainability. In addition, social conditions can be undermined by the negative effects of increased heat on daily work and life activities and on local cultural practices. The methodology we describe can be used to produce quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on work activities in countries and local communities. We show in maps the increasing heat exposures in the shade expressed as the occupational heat stress index Wet Bulb Globe Temperature. Some tropical and sub-tropical areas already experience serious heat stress, and the continuing heating will substantially reduce work capacity and labour productivity in widening parts of the world. Southern parts of Europe and the USA will also be affected. Even the lowest target for climate change (average global temperature change = 1.5 °C at representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6) will increase the loss of daylight work hour output due to heat in many tropical areas from less than 2% now up to more than 6% at the end of the century. A global temperature change of 2.7 °C (at RCP6.0) will double this annual heat impact on work in such areas. Calculations of this type of heat impact at country level show that in the USA, the loss of work capacity in moderate level work in the shade will increase from 0.17% now to more than 1.3% at the end of the century based on the 2.7 °C temperature change. The impact is naturally mainly occurring in the southern hotter areas. In China, the heat impact will increase from 0.3 to 2%, and in India, from 2 to 8%. Especially affected countries, such as Cambodia, may have losses going beyond 10%, while countries with most of the population at high cooler altitude, such as Ethiopia, may experience much lower losses.}, }
@article {pmid28763476, year = {2017}, author = {Zhang, S and Kang, H and Yang, W}, title = {Climate change-induced water stress suppresses the regeneration of the critically endangered forest tree Nyssa yunnanensis.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {e0182012}, pmid = {28763476}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Forests ; Germination ; Humidity ; Nyssa/*physiology ; Photosynthesis ; Seasons ; Seedlings/physiology ; Seeds/physiology ; Soil ; Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; *Trees ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climatic change-induced water stress has been found to threaten the viability of trees, especially endangered species, through inhibiting their recruitment. Nyssa yunnanensis, a plant species with extremely small populations (PSESP), consists of only two small populations of eight mature individuals remaining in southwestern China. In order to determine the barriers to regeneration, both in situ and laboratory experiments were performed to examine the critical factors hindering seed germination and seedling establishment. The results of in situ field experiments demonstrated that soil water potentials lower than -5.40 MPa (experienced in December) had significantly inhibitory effects on seedling survival, and all seedlings perished at a soil water potential of -5.60 MPa (January). Laboratory experiments verified that N. yunnanensis seedlings could not survive at a 20% PEG 6000 concentration (-5.34 MPa) or 1/5 water-holding capacity (WHC; -5.64 MPa), and seed germination was inhibited in the field from September (-1.10 MPa) to November (-4.30 MPa). Our results suggested that soil water potentials between -5.34 and -5.64 MPa constituted the range of soil water potentials in which N. yunnanensis seedlings could not survive. In addition to water deficit, intensified autotoxicity, which is concentration-dependent, resulted in lower seed germination and seedling survival. Thus, seed establishment was probably simultaneously impacted by water deficit and aggravated autotoxicity. Meteorological records from the natural distribution areas of N. yunnanensis indicated that mean annual rainfall and relative humidity have declined by 21.7% and 6.3% respectively over past 55 years, while the temperature has increased by 6.0%. Climate change-induced drought, along with a poor resistance and adaptability to drought stress, has severely impacted the natural regeneration of N. yunnanensis. In conclusion, climate change-induced drought has been implicated as a regulating factor in the natural regeneration of N. yunnanensis through suppressing seed germination and screening out seedlings in the dry season. Based on the experimental findings, habitat restoration and microclimate improvement should both be highlighted in the conservation of this particular plant species.}, }
@article {pmid28758917, year = {2017}, author = {Kuehn, L and McCormick, S}, title = {Heat Exposure and Maternal Health in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {28758917}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Maternal Health ; Pregnancy ; *Pregnancy Outcome ; }, abstract = {Climate change will increasingly affect the health of vulnerable populations, including maternal and fetal health. This systematic review aims to identify recent literature that investigates increasing heat and extreme temperatures on pregnancy outcomes globally. We identify common research findings in order to create a comprehensive understanding of how immediate effects will be sustained in the next generation. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guide, we systematically reviewed articles from PubMed and Cochrane Reviews. We included articles that identify climate change-related exposures and adverse health effects for pregnant women. There is evidence that temperature extremes adversely impact birth outcomes, including, but not limited to: changes in length of gestation, birth weight, stillbirth, and neonatal stress in unusually hot temperature exposures. The studies included in this review indicate that not only is there a need for further research on the ways that climate change, and heat in particular, may affect maternal health and neonatal outcomes, but that uniform standards for assessing the effects of heat on maternal fetal health also need to be established.}, }
@article {pmid28758293, year = {2017}, author = {Gallardo, B and Aldridge, DC and González-Moreno, P and Pergl, J and Pizarro, M and Pyšek, P and Thuiller, W and Yesson, C and Vilà, M}, title = {Protected areas offer refuge from invasive species spreading under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {5331-5343}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13798}, pmid = {28758293}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Introduced Species ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Protected areas (PAs) are intended to provide native biodiversity and habitats with a refuge against the impacts of global change, particularly acting as natural filters against biological invasions. In practice, however, it is unknown how effective PAs will be in shielding native species from invasions under projected climate change. Here, we investigate the current and future potential distributions of 100 of the most invasive terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species in Europe. We use this information to evaluate the combined threat posed by climate change and invasions to existing PAs and the most susceptible species they shelter. We found that only a quarter of Europe's marine and terrestrial areas protected over the last 100 years have been colonized by any of the invaders investigated, despite offering climatically suitable conditions for invasion. In addition, hotspots of invasive species and the most susceptible native species to their establishment do not match at large continental scales. Furthermore, the predicted richness of invaders is 11%-18% significantly lower inside PAs than outside them. Invasive species are rare in long-established national parks and nature reserves, which are actively protected and often located in remote and pristine regions with very low human density. In contrast, the richness of invasive species is high in the more recently designated Natura 2000 sites, which are subject to high human accessibility. This situation may change in the future, since our models anticipate important shifts in species ranges toward the north and east of Europe at unprecedented rates of 14-55 km/decade, depending on taxonomic group and scenario. This may seriously compromise the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of the resistance that PAs provide against biological invasions and climate change on a continental scale and illustrates their strategic value in safeguarding native biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid28757602, year = {2017}, author = {Ockenden, MC and Hollaway, MJ and Beven, KJ and Collins, AL and Evans, R and Falloon, PD and Forber, KJ and Hiscock, KM and Kahana, R and Macleod, CJA and Tych, W and Villamizar, ML and Wearing, C and Withers, PJA and Zhou, JG and Barker, PA and Burke, S and Freer, JE and Johnes, PJ and Snell, MA and Surridge, BWJ and Haygarth, PM}, title = {Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {161}, pmid = {28757602}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.}, }
@article {pmid28753605, year = {2017}, author = {A, R and Praveen, D and R, J and D, R and K, P}, title = {Spatiotemporal analysis of projected impacts of climate change on the major C3 and C4 crop yield under representative concentration pathway 4.5: Insight from the coasts of Tamil Nadu, South India.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e0180706}, pmid = {28753605}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*metabolism ; India ; Models, Theoretical ; *Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {India's dependence on a climate sensitive sector like agriculture makes it highly vulnerable to its impacts. However, agriculture is highly heterogeneous across the country owing to regional disparities in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. It is essential to know and quantify the possible impacts of changes in climate on crop yield for successful agricultural management and planning at a local scale. The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) was employed to generate regional climate projections for the study area using the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RegCM4.4. The dynamics in potential impacts at the sub-district level were evaluated using the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCPs). The aim of this study was to simulate the crop yield under a plausible change in climate for the coastal areas of South India through the end of this century. The crop simulation model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 4.5, was used to understand the plausible impacts on the major crop yields of rice, groundnuts, and sugarcane under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. The findings reveal that under the RCP 4.5 scenario there will be decreases in the major C3 and C4 crop yields in the study area. This would affect not only the local food security, but the livelihood security as well. This necessitates timely planning to achieve sustainable crop productivity and livelihood security. On the other hand, this situation warrants appropriate adaptations and policy intervention at the sub-district level for achieving sustainable crop productivity in the future.}, }
@article {pmid28750284, year = {2017}, author = {Sperotto, A and Molina, JL and Torresan, S and Critto, A and Marcomini, A}, title = {Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {202}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {320-331}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.07.044}, pmid = {28750284}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Risk Assessment ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management.}, }
@article {pmid28750225, year = {2017}, author = {Weinberger, KR and Haykin, L and Eliot, MN and Schwartz, JD and Gasparrini, A and Wellenius, GA}, title = {Projected temperature-related deaths in ten large U.S. metropolitan areas under different climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {107}, number = {}, pages = {196-204}, pmid = {28750225}, issn = {1873-6750}, support = {F32 ES027742/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; MR/M022625/1//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Mortality ; *Temperature ; United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There is an established U-shaped association between daily temperature and mortality. Temperature changes projected through the end of century are expected to lead to higher rates of heat-related mortality but also lower rates of cold-related mortality, such that the net change in temperature-related mortality will depend on location.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We quantified the change in heat-, cold-, and temperature-related mortality rates through the end of the century across 10 large US metropolitan areas.<br><br>METHODS: We applied location-specific projections of future temperature from over 40 downscaled climate models to exposure-response functions relating daily temperature and mortality in 10 US metropolitan areas to estimate the change in temperature-related mortality rates in 2045-2055 and 2085-2095 compared to 1992-2002, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We further calculated the total number of deaths attributable to temperature in 1997, 2050, and 2090 in each metropolitan area, either assuming constant population or accounting for projected population growth.<br><br>RESULTS: In each of the 10 metropolitan areas, projected future temperatures were associated with lower rates of cold-related deaths and higher rates of heat-related deaths. Under the higher-emission RCP 8.5 scenario, 8 of the 10 metropolitan areas are projected to experience a net increase in annual temperature-related deaths per million people by 2086-2095, ranging from a net increase of 627 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 239, 1018) deaths per million in Los Angeles to a net decrease of 59 (95% eCI: -485, 314) deaths per million in Boston. Applying these projected temperature-related mortality rates to projected population size underscores the large public health burden of temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Increases in the heat-related death rate are projected to outweigh decreases in the cold-related death rate in 8 out of 10 cities studied under a high emissions scenario. Adhering to a lower greenhouse gas emissions scenario has the potential to substantially reduce future temperature-related mortality.}, }
@article {pmid28749596, year = {2017}, author = {Nicholas, PK and Breakey, S}, title = {Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Environmental Health: Implications for the Nursing Profession.}, journal = {Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing}, volume = {49}, number = {6}, pages = {606-616}, doi = {10.1111/jnu.12326}, pmid = {28749596}, issn = {1547-5069}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health/organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Leadership ; *Nurse's Role ; *Social Justice ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE: Climate change is an emerging challenge linked to negative outcomes for the environment and human health. Since the 1960s, there has been a growing recognition of the need to address climate change and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions implicated in the warming of our planet. There are also deleterious health outcomes linked to complex climate changes that are emerging in the 21st century. This article addresses the social justice issues associated with climate change and human health and discussion of climate justice.<br><br>ORGANIZING CONSTRUCT: Discussion paper.<br><br>METHODS: A literature search of electronic databases was conducted for articles, texts, and documents related to climate change, climate justice, and human health.<br><br>FINDINGS: The literature suggests that those who contribute least to global warming are those who will disproportionately be affected by the negative health outcomes of climate change. The concept of climate justice and the role of the Mary Robinson Foundation-Climate Justice are discussed within a framework of nursing's professional responsibility and the importance of social justice for the world's people. The nursing profession must take a leadership role in engaging in policy and advocacy discussions in addressing the looming problems associated with climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Nursing organizations have adopted resolutions and engaged in leadership roles to address climate change at the local, regional, national, and global level. It is essential that nurses embrace concepts related to social justice and engage in the policy debate regarding the deleterious effects on human health related to global warming and climate change. Nursing's commitment to social justice offers an opportunity to offer significant global leadership in addressing the health implications related to climate change.<br><br>CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Recognizing the negative impacts of climate change on well-being and the underlying socioeconomic reasons for their disproportionate and inequitable distribution can expand and optimize the profession's role in education, practice, research, and policy-making efforts to address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28748778, year = {2017}, author = {, }, title = {WADEM Climate Change Position Statement.}, journal = {Prehospital and disaster medicine}, volume = {32}, number = {4}, pages = {351}, doi = {10.1017/S1049023X17006823}, pmid = {28748778}, issn = {1945-1938}, }
@article {pmid28747769, year = {2017}, author = {Wang, Z and Chen, J and Xing, F and Han, Y and Chen, F and Zhang, L and Li, Y and Li, C}, title = {Response of cotton phenology to climate change on the North China Plain from 1981 to 2012.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {6628}, pmid = {28747769}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {To identify countermeasures for the impacts of climate change on crop production, exploring the changes in crop phenology and their relationship to climate change is required. This study was based on cotton phenology and climate data collected from 13 agro-meteorological experimental stations and 13 meteorological stations on the North China Plain from 1981 to 2012. Spatiotemporal trends in the cotton phenology data, lengths of the different growing phases, mean temperatures, and rainfall were analyzed. These results indicated that warming accelerated cotton growth, advanced cotton phenology, and shortened the growing period of cotton. However, harvest dates were significantly delayed at 8 (61.5%) stations, the length of both the flowering-boll opening and boll opening-harvest periods increased at 10 (77.0%) stations, and a positive correlation was found between the mean temperature and the length of the whole growing period at 10 (77.0%) stations. Therefore, cotton practices and cultivars on the North China Plain should be adjusted accordingly. The response of cotton phenology to climate change, as shown here, can further guide the development of options for the adaptation of cotton production in the near future.}, }
@article {pmid28746891, year = {2017}, author = {Wu, Q and Qi, J and Xia, X}, title = {Long-term variations in sediment heavy metals of a reservoir with changing trophic states: Implications for the impact of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {609}, number = {}, pages = {242-250}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.04.041}, pmid = {28746891}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Two dated sediment cores from the Miyun Reservoir of Beijing in China were analyzed to reconstruct the pollution history of heavy metals including cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), iron (Fe), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn) as well as phosphorus (P). Enrichment factor (EF) and geoaccumulation index (Igeo) were applied to assess the enrichment status of heavy metals. Average EF and Igeo values indicated that the studied heavy metals in the sediments mainly originated from non-point source pollution and soil-water erosion, showing low ecological risks. In addition, correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) identified that Cd, Zn, and P were mainly from agricultural diffusion pollution caused by utilization of the phosphate fertilizer; Zn, Ni, and Cr originated from soil erosion. PCA analysis was further conducted to investigate the relationships among meteorological factors, algae-dominant total organic carbon (TOC), and heavy metals. Results showed that algae-dominant TOC had strong positive correlation with temperature, which can be explained by that increased temperature accelerated the growth of algae. Meanwhile the opposite loadings between algae-dominant TOC and heavy metal suggested that primary production played an important role in migration and transformation of metals. Moreover, stepwise multiple regression models showed that Fe was sensitive to temperature, which accounted for approximately 39.0% and 40.1% of the variations in Fe of two sediment cores, respectively. Fe showed significant decreasing trends during the past 50years. Reductive environment of water-sediment interface caused by increasing temperature probably contributed to the restoration of ferric iron, resulting in the release of soluble Fe to overlying waters. Future climate change with elevated temperature and extreme weather events will aggravate the ecological risk of heavy metals in water environment due to the enhanced leaching effect and non-point source pollution as well as the release of heavy metals from sediments to water environment.}, }
@article {pmid28740241, year = {2017}, author = {Grieve, BD and Hare, JA and Saba, VS}, title = {Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {6264}, pmid = {28740241}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Copepoda/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081-2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.}, }
@article {pmid28740168, year = {2017}, author = {Mehran, A and AghaKouchak, A and Nakhjiri, N and Stewardson, MJ and Peel, MC and Phillips, TJ and Wada, Y and Ravalico, JK}, title = {Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {6282}, pmid = {28740168}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.}, }
@article {pmid28732401, year = {2017}, author = {Merriam, ER and Fernandez, R and Petty, JT and Zegre, N}, title = {Can brook trout survive climate change in large rivers? If it rains.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {607-608}, number = {}, pages = {1225-1236}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.049}, pmid = {28732401}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Rain ; *Rivers ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Temperature ; Trout/*physiology ; West Virginia ; }, abstract = {We provide an assessment of thermal characteristics and climate change vulnerability for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitats in the upper Shavers Fork sub-watershed, West Virginia. Spatial and temporal (2001-2015) variability in observed summer (6/1-8/31) stream temperatures was quantified in 23 (9 tributary, 14 main-stem) reaches. We developed a mixed effects model to predict site-specific mean daily stream temperature from air temperature and discharge and coupled this model with a hydrologic model to predict future (2016-2100) changes in stream temperature under low (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios. Observed mean daily stream temperature exceeded the 21°C brook trout physiological threshold in all but one main-stem site, and 3 sites exceeded proposed thermal limits for either 63- and 7-day mean stream temperature. We modeled mean daily stream temperature with a high degree of certainty (R[2]=0.93; RMSE=0.76°C). Predicted increases in mean daily stream temperature in main-stem and tributary reaches ranged from 0.2°C (RCP 4.5) to 1.2°C (RCP 8.5). Between 2091 and 2100, the average number of days with mean daily stream temperature>21°C increased within main-stem sites under the RCP 4.5 (0-1.2days) and 8.5 (0-13) scenarios; however, no site is expected to exceed 63- or 7-day thermal limits. During the warmest 10years, ≥5 main-stem sites exceeded the 63- or 7-day thermal tolerance limits under both climate emissions scenarios. Years with the greatest increases in stream temperature were characterized by low mean daily discharge. Main-stem reaches below major tributaries never exceed thermal limits, despite neighboring reaches having among the highest observed and predicted stream temperatures. Persistence of thermal refugia within upper Shavers Fork would enable persistence of metapopulation structure and life history processes. However, this will only be possible if projected increases in discharge are realized and offset expected increases in air temperature.}, }
@article {pmid28731409, year = {2017}, author = {Ng, V and Fazil, A and Gachon, P and Deuymes, G and Radojević, M and Mascarenhas, M and Garasia, S and Johansson, MA and Ogden, NH}, title = {Assessment of the Probability of Autochthonous Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in Canada under Recent and Projected Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {125}, number = {6}, pages = {067001}, pmid = {28731409}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Aedes/virology ; Animals ; British Columbia/epidemiology ; Caribbean Region ; Chikungunya Fever/*transmission ; *Chikungunya virus ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/virology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a reemerging pathogen transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. The ongoing Caribbean outbreak is of concern due to the potential for infected travelers to spread the virus to countries where vectors are present and the population is susceptible. Although there has been no autochthonous transmission of CHIKV in Canada, there is concern that both Ae. albopictus and CHIKV will become established, particularly under projected climate change. We developed risk maps for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada under recent (1981–2010) and projected climate (2011–2040 and 2041–2070).<br><br>METHODS: The risk for CHIKV transmission was the combination of the climatic suitability for CHIKV transmission potential and the climatic suitability for the presence of Ae. albopictus; the former was assessed using a stochastic model to calculate R0 and the latter was assessed by deriving a suitability indicator (SIG) that captures a set of climatic conditions known to influence the ecology of Ae. albopictus. R0 and SIG were calculated for each grid cell in Canada south of 60&#xb0;N, for each time period and for two emission scenarios, and combined to produce overall risk categories that were mapped to identify areas suitable for transmission and the duration of transmissibility.<br><br>FINDINGS: The risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission under recent climate is very low with all of Canada classified as unsuitable or rather unsuitable for transmission. Small parts of southern coastal British Columbia become progressively suitable with short-term and long-term projected climate; the duration of potential transmission is limited to 1&#x2013;2 months of the year.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: Although the current risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada is very low, our study could be further supported by the routine surveillance of Ae. albopictus in areas identified as potentially suitable for transmission given our uncertainty on the current distribution of this species in Canada. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP669}, }
@article {pmid28730654, year = {2017}, author = {Calder, WJ and Shuman, B}, title = {Extensive wildfires, climate change, and an abrupt state change in subalpine ribbon forests, Colorado.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {98}, number = {10}, pages = {2585-2600}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.1959}, pmid = {28730654}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Colorado ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Ecosystems may shift abruptly when the effects of climate change and disturbance interact, and landscapes with regularly patterned vegetation may be especially vulnerable to abrupt shifts. Here we use a fossil pollen record from a regularly patterned ribbon forest (alternating bands of forests and meadows) in Colorado to examine whether past changes in wildfire and climate produced abrupt vegetation shifts. Comparing the percentages of conifer pollen with sedimentary δ[18] O data (interpreted as an indicator of temperature or snow accumulation) indicates a first-order linear relationship between vegetation composition and climate change with no detectable lags over the past 2,500 yr (r = 0.55, P < 0.001). Additionally, however, we find that the vegetation changed abruptly within a century of extensive wildfires, which were recognized in a previous study to have burned approximately 80% of the surrounding 1,000 km[2] landscape 1,000 yr ago when temperatures rose ~0.5°C. The vegetation change was larger than expected from the effects of climate change alone. Pollen assemblages changed from a composition associated with closed subalpine forests to one similar to modern ribbon forests. Fossil pollen assemblages then remained like those from modern ribbon forests for the following ~1,000 yr, providing a clear example of how extensive disturbances can trigger persistent new vegetation states and alter how vegetation responds to climate.}, }
@article {pmid28727842, year = {2017}, author = {Singh, SP and Swanson, M}, title = {How issue frames shape beliefs about the importance of climate change policy across ideological and partisan groups.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e0181401}, pmid = {28727842}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Climate Change ; *Culture ; Environment ; Human Rights ; Humans ; Models, Psychological ; *Policy ; *Politics ; Psycholinguistics ; Public Opinion ; Security Measures ; United States ; }, abstract = {We use an experiment to examine whether the way in which climate change is framed affects individuals' beliefs about its importance as a policy issue. We employ frames that emphasize national security, human rights, and environmental importance about the consequences of climate change. We find no evidence that issue frames have an overall effect on opinions about the importance of climate change policy. We do find some evidence that the effect of issue frames varies across ideological and partisan groups. Most notably, issue frames can lead Republicans and those on the political right to view climate change policy as less important. We conclude by discussing our findings relative to extant literature and considering the implications of our findings for those who seek to address the issue of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28727747, year = {2017}, author = {Ellis-Soto, D and Blake, S and Soultan, A and Guézou, A and Cabrera, F and Lötters, S}, title = {Plant species dispersed by Galapagos tortoises surf the wave of habitat suitability under anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e0181333}, pmid = {28727747}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Ecuador ; Endangered Species ; Introduced Species ; Passiflora/physiology ; *Plant Dispersal ; Psidium/physiology ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Native biodiversity on the Galapagos Archipelago is severely threatened by invasive alien species. On Santa Cruz Island, the abundance of introduced plant species is low in the arid lowlands of the Galapagos National Park, but increases with elevation into unprotected humid highlands. Two common alien plant species, guava (Psidium guajava) and passion fruit (Passiflora edulis) occur at higher elevations yet their seeds are dispersed into the lowlands by migrating Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.). Tortoises transport large quantities of seeds over long distances into environments in which they have little or no chance of germination and survival under current climate conditions. However, climate change is projected to modify environmental conditions on Galapagos with unknown consequences for the distribution of native and introduced biodiversity. We quantified seed dispersal of guava and passion fruit in tortoise dung piles and the distribution of adult plants along two elevation gradients on Santa Cruz to assess current levels of 'wasted' seed dispersal. We computed species distribution models for both taxa under current and predicted future climate conditions. Assuming that tortoise migratory behaviour continues, current levels of "wasted" seed dispersal in lowlands were projected to decline dramatically in the future for guava but not for passion fruit. Tortoises will facilitate rapid range expansion for guava into lowland areas within the Galapagos National Park where this species is currently absent. Coupled with putative reduction in arid habitat for native species caused by climate change, tortoise driven guava invasion will pose a serious threat to local plant communities.}, }
@article {pmid28727744, year = {2017}, author = {Prist, PR and Uriarte, M and Fernandes, K and Metzger, JP}, title = {Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {e0005705}, pmid = {28727744}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Brazil/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Microbiology ; Orthohantavirus ; Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome/mortality/*transmission ; Humans ; Incidence ; Risk Factors ; Rodentia/*virology ; Saccharum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns.}, }
@article {pmid28727217, year = {2018}, author = {Miller, DD and Ota, Y and Sumaila, UR and Cisneros-Montemayor, AM and Cheung, WWL}, title = {Adaptation strategies to climate change in marine systems.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-e14}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13829}, pmid = {28727217}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {The world's oceans are highly impacted by climate change and other human pressures, with significant implications for marine ecosystems and the livelihoods that they support. Adaptation for both natural and human systems is increasingly important as a coping strategy due to the rate and scale of ongoing and potential future change. Here, we conduct a review of literature concerning specific case studies of adaptation in marine systems, and discuss associated characteristics and influencing factors, including drivers, strategy, timeline, costs, and limitations. We found ample evidence in the literature that shows that marine species are adapting to climate change through shifting distributions and timing of biological events, while evidence for adaptation through evolutionary processes is limited. For human systems, existing studies focus on frameworks and principles of adaptation planning, but examples of implemented adaptation actions and evaluation of outcomes are scarce. These findings highlight potentially useful strategies given specific social-ecological contexts, as well as key barriers and specific information gaps requiring further research and actions.}, }
@article {pmid28726752, year = {2017}, author = {Metallinou, MM and Log, T}, title = {Health Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Subzero Temperature Fires.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {28726752}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; *Fires ; Hospitalization ; Humans ; Mortality ; Weather ; Wood ; }, abstract = {General fire risk and the special risk related to cold climate cellulosic drying processes are outlined. Four recent subzero temperatures fires are studied with respect to health impacts: a wooden village fire, a single wood structure fire, a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire and a huge wildland fire. The health impacts range from stress related to loss of jobs, psychological effects of lost possessions, exposure to smoke and heat as well as immediate, or delayed, loss of lives. These four fires resulted in 32 fatalities, 385 persons hospitalized for shorter or longer periods, 104 structures lost and 1015 km[2] of wildland burned north of, and just south of, the Arctic Circle. It is shown that the combination of subzero temperature dry weather, strong winds, changing agricultural activities and declining snowpack may lead to previously anticipated threats to people and the environment. There are reasons to believe that these fires are a result of the ongoing climate changes. Risk impacts are discussed. Rural districts and/or vulnerable populations seem to be most affected. Training methods to identify and better monitor critical fire risk parameters are suggested to mitigate the health impacts of a possibly increasing number of such fires.}, }
@article {pmid28726175, year = {2017}, author = {Lei, J and Chen, L and Li, H}, title = {Using ensemble forecasting to examine how climate change promotes worldwide invasion of the golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata).}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {189}, number = {8}, pages = {404}, pmid = {28726175}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; *Introduced Species ; Malus ; Models, Theoretical ; Snails/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata, is one of the world's 100 most notorious invasive alien species. Knowledge about the critical climate variables that limit the global distribution range of the snail, as well as predictions of future species distributions under climate change, is very helpful for management of snail. In this study, the climatically suitable habitats for this kind of snail under current climate conditions were modeled by biomod2 and projected to eight future climate scenarios (2 time periods [2050s, 2080s] × 2 Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs; RCP2.6, RCP8.5] × 2 atmospheric General Circulation Models [GCMs; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)]). The results suggest that the lowest temperature of coldest month is the critical climate variable to restrict the global distribution range of P. canaliculata. It is predicted that the climatically suitable habitats for P. canaliculata will increase by an average of 3.3% in 2050s and 3.8% in 2080s for the RCP2.6 scenario, while they increase by an average of 8.7% in 2050s and 10.3% in 2080s for the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, climate change in the future may promote the global invasion of the invasive species. Therefore, it is necessary to take proactive measures to monitor and preclude the invasion of this species.}, }
@article {pmid28725374, year = {2016}, author = {Matteodo, M and Ammann, K and Verrecchia, EP and Vittoz, P}, title = {Snowbeds are more affected than other subalpine-alpine plant communities by climate change in the Swiss Alps.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {19}, pages = {6969-6982}, pmid = {28725374}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {While the upward shift of plant species has been observed on many alpine and nival summits, the reaction of the subalpine and lower alpine plant communities to the current warming and lower snow precipitation has been little investigated so far. To this aim, 63 old, exhaustive plant inventories, distributed along a subalpine-alpine elevation gradient of the Swiss Alps and covering different plant community types (acidic and calcareous grasslands; windy ridges; snowbeds), were revisited after 25-50 years. Old and recent inventories were compared in terms of species diversity with Simpson diversity and Bray-Curtis dissimilarity indices, and in terms of community composition with principal component analysis. Changes in ecological conditions were inferred from the ecological indicator values. The alpha-diversity increased in every plant community, likely because of the arrival of new species. As observed on mountain summits, the new species led to a homogenization of community compositions. The grasslands were quite stable in terms of species composition, whatever the bedrock type. Indeed, the newly arrived species were part of the typical species pool of the colonized community. In contrast, snowbed communities showed pronounced vegetation changes and a clear shift toward dryer conditions and shorter snow cover, evidenced by their colonization by species from surrounding grasslands. Longer growing seasons allow alpine grassland species, which are taller and hence more competitive, to colonize the snowbeds. This study showed that subalpine-alpine plant communities reacted differently to the ongoing climate changes. Lower snow/rain ratio and longer growing seasons seem to have a higher impact than warming, at least on plant communities dependent on long snow cover. Consequently, they are the most vulnerable to climate change and their persistence in the near future is seriously threatened. Subalpine and alpine grasslands are more stable, and, until now, they do not seem to be affected by a warmer climate.}, }
@article {pmid28725092, year = {2016}, author = {Shapiro, JM}, title = {Special Interests and the Media: Theory and an Application to Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of public economics}, volume = {144}, number = {}, pages = {91-108}, pmid = {28725092}, issn = {0047-2727}, support = {P2C HD041020/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {A journalist reports to a voter on an unknown, policy-relevant state. Competing special interests can make claims that contradict the facts but seem credible to the voter. A reputational incentive to avoid taking sides leads the journalist to report special interests' claims to the voter. In equilibrium, the voter can remain uninformed even when the journalist is perfectly informed. Communication is improved if the journalist discloses her partisan leanings. The model provides an account of persistent public ignorance on climate change that is consistent with narrative and quantitative evidence.}, }
@article {pmid28724987, year = {2017}, author = {Huang, S and Leng, G and Huang, Q and Xie, Y and Liu, S and Meng, E and Li, P}, title = {The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {5891}, pmid = {28724987}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating the potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. This study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.}, }
@article {pmid28724952, year = {2017}, author = {Ramirez-Cabral, NYZ and Kumar, L and Shabani, F}, title = {Global alterations in areas of suitability for maize production from climate change and using a mechanistic species distribution model (CLIMEX).}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {5910}, pmid = {28724952}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Models, Theoretical ; Reproducibility of Results ; Species Specificity ; Stress, Physiological ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {At the global level, maize is the third most important crop on the basis of harvested area. Given its importance, an assessment of the variation in regional climatic suitability under climate change is critical. CliMond 10' data were used to model the potential current and future climate distribution of maize at the global level using the CLIMEX distribution model with climate data from two general circulation models, CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, assuming an A2 emissions scenario for 2050 and 2100. The change in area under future climate was analysed at continental level and for major maize-producing countries of the world. Regions between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn indicate the highest loss of climatic suitability, contrary to poleward regions that exhibit an increase of suitability. South America shows the highest loss of climatic suitability, followed by Africa and Oceania. Asia, Europe and North America exhibit an increase in climatic suitability. This study indicates that globally, large areas that are currently suitable for maize cultivation will suffer from heat and dry stresses that may constrain production. For the first time, a model was applied worldwide, allowing for a better understanding of areas that are suitable and that may remain suitable for maize.}, }
@article {pmid28724691, year = {2017}, author = {Rey, B and Fuller, A and Mitchell, D and Meyer, LCR and Hetem, RS}, title = {Drought-induced starvation of aardvarks in the Kalahari: an indirect effect of climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {28724691}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation ; Botswana ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; *Xenarthra ; }, abstract = {Aardvarks (Orycteropus afer) are elusive burrowing mammals, predominantly nocturnal and distributed widely throughout Africa except for arid deserts. Their survival may be threatened by climate change via direct and indirect effects of increasing heat and aridity. To measure their current physiological plasticity, we implanted biologgers into six adult aardvarks resident in the semi-arid Kalahari. Following a particularly dry and hot summer, five of the study aardvarks and 11 other aardvarks at the study site died. Body temperature records revealed homeothermy (35.4-37.2°C) initially, but heterothermy increased progressively through the summer, with declining troughs in the nychthemeral rhythm of body temperature reaching as low as 25°C before death, likely due to starvation. Activity patterns shifted from the normal nocturnal to a diurnal mode. Our results do not bode well for the future of aardvarks facing climate change. Extirpation of aardvarks, which play a key role as ecosystem engineers, may disrupt stability of African ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid28722753, year = {2018}, author = {Piñero, MC and Pérez-Jiménez, M and López-Marín, J and Del Amor, FM}, title = {Fruit quality of sweet pepper as affected by foliar Ca applications to mitigate the supply of saline water under a climate change scenario.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {98}, number = {3}, pages = {1071-1078}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.8557}, pmid = {28722753}, issn = {1097-0010}, mesh = {Calcium/analysis/*metabolism ; Capsicum/chemistry/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide ; Chlorophyll/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Fruit/*chemistry/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Photosynthesis ; Saline Waters/analysis/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Sweet pepper fruit quality disorders have been related mainly to an unbalanced nutrient supply and non-optimal growth conditions. Increases in the atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2 ]) have been associated with a reduction of transpiration, which can affect calcium (Ca) uptake as it is linked closely to water uptake. We investigated whether foliar application of Ca can counterbalance the effects of saline water and elevated [CO2 ].<br><br>RESULTS: High CO2 favoured generative growth instead of vegetative growth. Foliar Ca supply did not affect the marketable yield, but reduced the total yield when combined with salinity and 400&#x2009;&#xb5;mol mol[-1] CO2 . Salinity affected negatively the total yield but this was overcome when CO2 was applied. The B and K concentrations were reduced by foliar Ca application, while Ca and Mn were increased at 400&#x2009;&#xb5;mol mol[-1] CO2 . Salinity increased the Mn, Cl, and Na concentrations, regardless of the [CO2 ], and decreased K at 800&#x2009;&#xb5;mol mol[-1] CO2 . The total protein was affected negatively only by elevated [CO2 ], and the total free amino acid concentration was reduced by all treatments.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The effect of Ca application differed according to the other treatments applied. This procedure should be optimised to overcome future climate impacts on fruit quality. &#xa9; 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid28719655, year = {2017}, author = {Jesus, TF and Moreno, JM and Repolho, T and Athanasiadis, A and Rosa, R and Almeida-Val, VMF and Coelho, MM}, title = {Protein analysis and gene expression indicate differential vulnerability of Iberian fish species under a climate change scenario.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e0181325}, pmid = {28719655}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cyprinidae/*genetics/*metabolism ; *Endangered Species ; Evolution, Molecular ; Fish Proteins/chemistry/*genetics/*metabolism ; *Gene Expression Regulation ; Models, Molecular ; Protein Conformation ; }, abstract = {Current knowledge on the biological responses of freshwater fish under projected scenarios of climate change remains limited. Here, we examine differences in the protein configuration of two endemic Iberian freshwater fish species, Squalius carolitertii and the critically endangered S. torgalensis that inhabit in the Atlantic-type northern and in the Mediterranean-type southwestern regions, respectively. We performed protein structure modeling of fourteen genes linked to protein folding, energy metabolism, circadian rhythms and immune responses. Structural differences in proteins between the two species were found for HSC70, FKBP52, HIF1α and GPB1. For S. torgalensis, besides structural differences, we found higher thermostability for two proteins (HSP90 and GBP1), which can be advantageous in a warmer environment. Additionally, we investigated how these species might respond to projected scenarios of 3° climate change warming, acidification (ΔpH = -0.4), and their combined effects. Significant changes in gene expression were observed in response to all treatments, particularly under the combined warming and acidification. While S. carolitertii presented changes in gene expression for multiple proteins related to folding (hsp90aa1, hsc70, fkbp4 and stip1), only one such gene was altered in S. torgalensis (stip1). However, S. torgalensis showed a greater capacity for energy production under both the acidification and combined scenarios by increasing cs gene expression and maintaining ldha gene expression in muscle. Overall, these findings suggest that S. torgalensis is better prepared to cope with projected climate change. Worryingly, under the simulated scenarios, disturbances to circadian rhythm and immune system genes (cry1aa, per1a and gbp1) raise concerns for the persistence of both species, highlighting the need to consider multi-stressor effects when evaluating climate change impacts upon fish. This work also highlights that assessments of the potential of endangered freshwater species to cope with environmental change are crucial to help decision-makers adopt future conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid28718119, year = {2017}, author = {Bogner, J}, title = {[Global warming - more and other infectious diseases in Germany?].}, journal = {MMW Fortschritte der Medizin}, volume = {159}, number = {13}, pages = {39-42}, doi = {10.1007/s15006-017-9899-4}, pmid = {28718119}, issn = {1438-3276}, mesh = {Aedes ; Animals ; Chikungunya Fever ; Climate ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; Germany ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Malaria ; Mosquito Vectors ; Rift Valley Fever ; Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid28718118, year = {2017}, author = {Witt, C and Liebers, U and Dostal, V and Heinsohn, JB and Hanisch, M and Drozdek, M and Schubert, A and Scherer, D}, title = {[More heat stress and air pollution for the lungs in view of climate change].}, journal = {MMW Fortschritte der Medizin}, volume = {159}, number = {13}, pages = {42-45}, doi = {10.1007/s15006-017-9900-2}, pmid = {28718118}, issn = {1438-3276}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; *Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; *Heat-Shock Response ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Lung Diseases ; Pollen ; }, }
@article {pmid28717391, year = {2017}, author = {Kim, SY and Costa, MM and Esteve-Codina, A and Velando, A}, title = {Transcriptional mechanisms underlying life-history responses to climate change in the three-spined stickleback.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {718-730}, pmid = {28717391}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of an organism to express different phenotypes depending on the environment, provides an important mechanism by which an animal population can persist under rapid climate change. We experimentally tested both life-history and transcriptional responses of an ecological model species, the three-spined stickleback, to warm acclimation at the southern edge of its European range. We explored cross-environment genetic correlations of key life-history traits in male sticklebacks exposed to long-term temperature changes to examine whether the plasticity pattern was variable among genotypes by using a character-state approach. We also studied gene expression plasticity by analysing both whole-transcriptome and candidate gene expression in brain and liver. Male sticklebacks that developed under warmer conditions during winter were smaller in size and invested less in nuptial coloration at the beginning of the breeding season, showing similar responses across different genotypes. The lack of genetic variation in life-history responses may limit any future evolution of the thermal reaction norm in the study population. After long-term exposure to increased winter temperatures, genes responsible for several metabolic and oxidation-reduction processes were upregulated, and some hormone genes involved in growth and reproduction were downregulated in the brain. In the liver, there was no significantly represented gene ontology by the differentially expressed genes. Since a higher temperature leads to a higher resting metabolic rate, living in warmer environments may incur higher energetic costs for ectotherms to maintain cellular homoeostasis, resulting in negative consequences for life-history traits. The expression of genes related to metabolism, cellular homoeostasis and regulatory signalling may underlie temperature-induced changes in life history.}, }
@article {pmid28717135, year = {2017}, author = {Pu, B and Ginoux, P}, title = {Projection of American dustiness in the late 21[st] century due to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {5553}, pmid = {28717135}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate models project rising drought risks over the southwestern and central U.S. in the twenty-first century due to increasing greenhouse gases. The projected drier regions largely overlay the major dust sources in the United States. However, whether dust activity in U.S. will increase in the future is not clear, due to the large uncertainty in dust modeling. This study found that changes of dust activity in the U.S. in the recent decade are largely associated with the variations of precipitation, soil bareness, and surface winds speed. Using multi-model output under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario, we project that climate change will increase dust activity in the southern Great Plains from spring to fall in the late half of the twenty-first century - largely due to reduced precipitation, enhanced land surface bareness, and increased surface wind speed. Over the northern Great Plains, less dusty days are expected in spring due to increased precipitation and reduced bareness. Given the large negative economic and societal consequences of severe dust storms, this study complements the multi-model projection on future dust variations and may help improve risk management and resource planning.}, }
@article {pmid28709097, year = {2017}, author = {Fu, Q and Li, B and Hou, Y and Bi, X and Zhang, X}, title = {Effects of land use and climate change on ecosystem services in Central Asia's arid regions: A case study in Altay Prefecture, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {607-608}, number = {}, pages = {633-646}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.241}, pmid = {28709097}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The sustainable use of ecosystem services (ES) can contribute to enhancing human well-being. Understanding the effects of land use and climate change on ES can provide scientific and targeted guidance for the sustainable use of ES. The objective of this study was to reveal the way in which land use and climate change influence the spatial and temporal variations of ES in the mountain-oasis-desert system (MODS). In this study, we assessed water yield, soil conservation, crop production, and sand fixation in 1990, 2000, and 2010 in Altay Prefecture, which is representative of the MODS, based on widely used biophysical models. Moreover, we analyzed the effects of different land use and climate change conditions on ES. The results show that the area of forest and bare land decreased in Altay Prefecture. In contrast, the area of grassland with low coverage and cropland increased. The climate of this area presented an overall warming-wetting trend, with warming-drying and cooling-wetting phenomena in some areas. Soil conservation in the mountain zone, water yield in the oasis zone, and sand fixation in the desert zone all decreased under the influence of land use change alone. The warming-drying trend led to decreased water yield in the oasis zone and increased wind erosion in the desert zone. Based on the results, we recommend that local governments achieve sustainable use of ES by planting grasslands with high coverage in the oasis zone, increasing investment in agricultural science and technology, and establishing protected areas in the mountain and desert zones. The methodology in our study can also be applied to other regions with a MODS structure.}, }
@article {pmid28706225, year = {2017}, author = {Kumar, L and Tehrany, MS}, title = {Climate change impacts on the threatened terrestrial vertebrates of the Pacific Islands.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {5030}, pmid = {28706225}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Endangered Species ; Pacific Islands ; Population Forecast/*methods ; Population Growth ; Vertebrates/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The aim of this study was to undertake a broad-scale understanding of the distribution of vulnerable, endangered and critically endangered terrestrial vertebrate species in the Pacific and the assessment of impacts of climate change and sea level rise. 150 critically endangered, endangered and vulnerable terrestrial vertebrates found in 23 countries of the Pacific were linked to island susceptibility to climate change. Out of the 1779 islands making up the 23 countries, 674 of them hosted at least one species from the above categories. 84 of the 150 species are endemic to this study area and many of these occur on islands with high susceptibility to climate change, with many of them occurring on one island only. The species data, together with islands, was overlain with Mean Significant Wave Height (Hs) projections for 2081-2100 under RCP4.5 and 8.5, and further analysed for threat of extinction. A large number of critically endangered and endangered species fall in regions that have the highest Hs projections.}, }
@article {pmid28701561, year = {2017}, author = {Hannisdal, B and Haaga, KA and Reitan, T and Diego, D and Liow, LH}, title = {Common species link global ecosystems to climate change: dynamical evidence in the planktonic fossil record.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {284}, number = {1858}, pages = {}, pmid = {28701561}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Foraminifera ; Fossils ; Oceans and Seas ; *Plankton ; }, abstract = {Common species shape the world around us, and changes in their commonness signify large-scale shifts in ecosystem structure and function. However, our understanding of long-term ecosystem response to environmental forcing in the deep past is centred on species richness, neglecting the disproportional impact of common species. Here, we use common and widespread species of planktonic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments to track changes in observed global occupancy (proportion of sampled sites at which a species is present and observed) through the turbulent climatic history of the last 65 Myr. Our approach is sensitive to relative changes in global abundance of the species set and robust to factors that bias richness estimators. Using three independent methods for detecting causality, we show that the observed global occupancy of planktonic foraminifera has been dynamically coupled to past oceanographic changes captured in deep-ocean temperature reconstructions. The causal inference does not imply a direct mechanism, but is consistent with an indirect, time-delayed causal linkage. Given the strong quantitative evidence that a dynamical coupling exists, we hypothesize that mixotrophy (symbiont hosting) may be an ecological factor linking the global abundance of planktonic foraminifera to long-term climate changes via the relative extent of oligotrophic oceans.}, }
@article {pmid28700721, year = {2017}, author = {Wei, J and Zhang, H and Zhao, W and Zhao, Q}, title = {Niche shifts and the potential distribution of Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e0180913}, pmid = {28700721}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Hemiptera/*physiology ; Principal Component Analysis ; Software ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), is a serious invasive species that significantly damages plants of approximately 60 families around the world. It is originally from North America and has also been introduced to other continents. Our goals were to create a current and future potential global distribution map for this pest under climate change with MaxEnt software. We tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for P. solenopsis by comparing its native niche in North America to its invasive niches on other continents using Principal components analyses (PCA) in R. The potentially suitable habitat for P. solenopsis in its native and non-native ranges is presented in the present paper. The results suggested that the mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the mean temperature of the driest quarter are the most important environmental variables determining the potential distribution of P. solenopsis. We found strong evidence for niche shifts in the realized climatic niche of this pest in South America and Australia due to niche unfilling; however, a niche shift in the realized climatic niche of this pest in Eurasian owing to niche expansion.}, }
@article {pmid28698518, year = {2017}, author = {Alhassan, S and Hadwen, WL}, title = {Challenges and Opportunities for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into WaSH Development Planning in Ghana.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {}, pmid = {28698518}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Floods ; Ghana ; *Hygiene ; *Sanitation ; *Social Planning ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) facilities and services, as these are intimately linked to the water cycle and are vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of available water resources. Floods and droughts, which pollute and reduce water delivery respectively, have now become a perennial issue to deal with in the northern regions of Ghana. This study aimed to assess the degree to which climate change adaptation measures are mainstreamed into the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) development planning process in Ghana. Stakeholders from government and non-government agencies were interviewed to gain perspectives on the threat of climate change, the inclusion of climate change in WaSH planning and the barriers preventing mainstreaming. Despite awareness of climate change, adaptation measures have not been considered, and the immediate WaSH needs remain the priority. Overall, stakeholders felt the adaptive capacity of the Municipality was low and that mainstreaming has not yet occurred. Despite the lack of progress, there are great opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into planning through increasing awareness and capacity, legislative and institutional changes and the development of participatory systems to provide early warning systems and disaster risk analyses that will inform future planning.}, }
@article {pmid28695682, year = {2018}, author = {Hisano, M and Searle, EB and Chen, HYH}, title = {Biodiversity as a solution to mitigate climate change impacts on the functioning of forest ecosystems.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {93}, number = {1}, pages = {439-456}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12351}, pmid = {28695682}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Models, Biological ; Plants/metabolism ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Forest ecosystems are critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through carbon sequestration. However, climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning in both negative and positive ways, and has led to shifts in species/functional diversity and losses in plant species diversity which may impair the positive effects of diversity on ecosystem functioning. Biodiversity may mitigate climate change impacts on (I) biodiversity itself, as more-diverse systems could be more resilient to climate change impacts, and (II) ecosystem functioning through the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning. By surveying the literature, we examined how climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning and plant diversity. Based on the biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning (B→EF), we specifically address the potential for biodiversity to mitigate climate change impacts on forest ecosystem functioning. For this purpose, we formulate a concept whereby biodiversity may reduce the negative impacts or enhance the positive impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Further B→EF studies on climate change in natural forests are encouraged to elucidate how biodiversity might influence ecosystem functioning. This may be achieved through the detailed scrutiny of large spatial/long temporal scale data sets, such as long-term forest inventories. Forest management strategies based on B→EF have strong potential for augmenting the effectiveness of the roles of forests in the mitigation of climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning.}, }
@article {pmid28692899, year = {2017}, author = {Yan, D and Ludwig, F and Huang, HQ and Werners, SE}, title = {Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {607-608}, number = {}, pages = {294-303}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.265}, pmid = {28692899}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools.}, }
@article {pmid28690934, year = {2017}, author = {Byers, DL and Chang, SM}, title = {Studying plant-pollinator interactions facing climate change and changing environments.}, journal = {Applications in plant sciences}, volume = {5}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {28690934}, issn = {2168-0450}, abstract = {Plant-pollinator interactions are essential for successful plant reproduction in both natural and agricultural systems. These interactions are negatively impacted by recent large-scale alterations of the environments, particularly climate change. The responses of plants and pollinators to changing abiotic conditions that vary seasonally and geographically are often uncoordinated, potentially leading to the breakdown of this interaction. The complexity of the responses of plants and pollinators to our changing climate necessitates creative approaches. The six articles in this special issue directly address this need by providing a variety of key methods and reviews of current methodology. The articles include: DNA barcoding methods for use on pollen collected from visiting bees; methods for assessment of plant attraction traits (nectar and review of floral volatiles methods); a field sampling method for ground nesting bees; a review of using spatial and temporal transplants for addressing changing dynamics of plant-pollinator interactions; and a review of approaches used to assess potential shifts in phenology of plants and pollinators. Collectively, these articles illustrate some of the breadth of approaches needed to address the changing dynamics of plant-pollinator interactions.}, }
@article {pmid28690930, year = {2017}, author = {Morton, EM and Rafferty, NE}, title = {Plant-pollinator interactions under climate change: The use of spatial and temporal transplants.}, journal = {Applications in plant sciences}, volume = {5}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {28690930}, issn = {2168-0450}, abstract = {Climate change is affecting both the timing of life history events and the spatial distributions of many species, including plants and pollinators. Shifts in phenology and range affect not only individual plant and pollinator species but also interactions among them, with possible negative consequences for both parties due to unfavorable abiotic conditions or mismatches caused by differences in shift magnitude or direction. Ultimately, population extinctions and reductions in pollination services could occur as a result of these climate change-induced shifts, or plants and pollinators could be buffered by plastic or genetic responses or novel interactions. Either scenario will likely involve altered selection pressures, making an understanding of plasticity and local adaptation in space and time especially important. In this review, we discuss two methods for studying plant-pollinator interactions under climate change: spatial and temporal transplants, both of which offer insight into whether plants and pollinators will be able to adapt to novel conditions. We discuss the advantages and limitations of each method and the future possibilities for this area of study. We advocate for consideration of how joint shifts in both dimensions might affect plant-pollinator interactions and point to key insights that can be gained with experimental transplants.}, }
@article {pmid28686737, year = {2017}, author = {Hayes, MA and Adams, RA}, title = {Simulated bat populations erode when exposed to climate change projections for western North America.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e0180693}, pmid = {28686737}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Chiroptera/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forests ; Models, Theoretical ; North America ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Recent research has demonstrated that temperature and precipitation conditions correlate with successful reproduction in some insectivorous bat species that live in arid and semiarid regions, and that hot and dry conditions correlate with reduced lactation and reproductive output by females of some species. However, the potential long-term impacts of climate-induced reproductive declines on bat populations in western North America are not well understood. We combined results from long-term field monitoring and experiments in our study area with information on vital rates to develop stochastic age-structured population dynamics models and analyzed how simulated fringed myotis (Myotis thysanodes) populations changed under projected future climate conditions in our study area near Boulder, Colorado (Boulder Models) and throughout western North America (General Models). Each simulation consisted of an initial population of 2,000 females and an approximately stable age distribution at the beginning of the simulation. We allowed each population to be influenced by the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation for our study area and a generalized range-wide model projected through year 2086, for each of four carbon emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). Each population simulation was repeated 10,000 times. Of the 8 Boulder Model simulations, 1 increased (+29.10%), 3 stayed approximately stable (+2.45%, +0.05%, -0.03%), and 4 simulations decreased substantially (-44.10%, -44.70%, -44.95%, -78.85%). All General Model simulations for western North America decreased by >90% (-93.75%, -96.70%, -96.70%, -98.75%). These results suggest that a changing climate in western North America has the potential to quickly erode some forest bat populations including species of conservation concern, such as fringed myotis.}, }
@article {pmid28686417, year = {2017}, author = {Kern, JD and Characklis, GW}, title = {Evaluating the Financial Vulnerability of a Major Electric Utility in the Southeastern U.S. to Drought under Climate Change and an Evolving Generation Mix.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {51}, number = {15}, pages = {8815-8823}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6b05460}, pmid = {28686417}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Droughts ; Electricity ; Southeastern United States ; Water ; }, abstract = {There is increasing recognition of the vulnerability of electric power systems to drought and the potential for both climate change and a shifting generation mix to alter this vulnerability. Nonetheless, the considerable research in this area has not been synthesized to inform electric utilities with respect to a key factor that influences their decisions about critical infrastructure: financial risk for shareholders. This study addresses this gap in knowledge by developing a systems framework for assessing the financial exposure of utilities to drought, with further consideration of the effects of climate change and a shifting generation mix. We then apply this framework to a major utility in the Southeastern U.S. Results suggest that extreme drought could cause profit shortfalls of more than $100 million if water temperature regulations are strictly enforced. However, even losses of this magnitude would not significantly impact returns for shareholders. This may inadvertently reduce pressure internally at utilities to incorporate drought vulnerability into long-term strategic planning, potentially leaving utilities and their customers at greater risk in the future.}, }
@article {pmid28684889, year = {2017}, author = {Seidl, R and Rammer, W}, title = {Climate change amplifies the interactions between wind and bark beetle disturbances in forest landscapes.}, journal = {Landscape ecology}, volume = {32}, number = {7}, pages = {1485-1498}, pmid = {28684889}, issn = {0921-2973}, support = {P 25503/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, abstract = {CONTEXT: Growing evidence suggests that climate change could substantially alter forest disturbances. Interactions between individual disturbance agents are a major component of disturbance regimes, yet how interactions contribute to their climate sensitivity remains largely unknown.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Here, our aim was to assess the climate sensitivity of disturbance interactions, focusing on wind and bark beetle disturbances.<br><br>METHODS: We developed a process-based model of bark beetle disturbance, integrated into the dynamic forest landscape model iLand (already including a detailed model of wind disturbance). We evaluated the integrated model against observations from three wind events and a subsequent bark beetle outbreak, affecting 530.2 ha (3.8 %) of a mountain forest landscape in Austria between 2007 and 2014. Subsequently, we conducted a factorial experiment determining the effect of changes in climate variables on the area disturbed by wind and bark beetles separately and in combination.<br><br>RESULTS: iLand was well able to reproduce observations with regard to area, temporal sequence, and spatial pattern of disturbance. The observed disturbance dynamics was strongly driven by interactions, with 64.3 % of the area disturbed attributed to interaction effects. A +4 &#xb0;C warming increased the disturbed area by +264.7 % and the area-weighted mean patch size by +1794.3 %. Interactions were found to have a ten times higher sensitivity to temperature changes than main effects, considerably amplifying the climate sensitivity of the disturbance regime.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Disturbance interactions are a key component of the forest disturbance regime. Neglecting interaction effects can lead to a substantial underestimation of the climate change sensitivity of disturbance regimes.}, }
@article {pmid28683083, year = {2017}, author = {Roberts, JJ and Fausch, KD and Schmidt, TS and Walters, DM}, title = {Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {e0179498}, pmid = {28683083}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Colorado ; Computer Simulation ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Lakes/*analysis ; *Models, Statistical ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.}, }
@article {pmid28681324, year = {2017}, author = {de Lira Azevêdo, E and Alves, RRN and Dias, TLP and Molozzi, J}, title = {How do people gain access to water resources in the Brazilian semiarid (Caatinga) in times of climate change?.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {189}, number = {8}, pages = {375}, pmid = {28681324}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Drinking Water ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fishes ; Humans ; Water Resources/*supply &amp; distribution ; Water Supply/methods/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Climate change is becoming an imminent reality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. Therefore, it is essential to understand the relationships between humans and aquatic ecosystems in order to devise efficient management and conservation strategies. We conducted 126 interviews using a semi-structured form to record water sources, transport strategies, and the use and treatment of water by communities surrounding four reservoirs within two drainage basins in the semiarid region of Brazil. These factors were then compared to the mean water volumes of the respective reservoirs from 2013 to 2015, a period of severe drought in that area. Seven types of water sources were considered, according to the perspectives of the interviewees: large reservoirs (dams) (43% of the citations), other smaller reservoirs (25%), rainwater (17.5%), wells (7%), waterholes (3%), bottled water (4%), and water tanks (0.5%). The water resources obtained are transported to human residences in seven different manners: actively pumped (34% of the citations), by water tanker truck (33%), distributed in pipes by local resident associations (11%), transport by animal (14%), human transport (4%), by car (2%), and by motorcycle (2%). The water is then used for domestic purposes (21%), for personal hygiene (20%), by animals (19%), in agriculture (18%), for cooking (10%), for fishing (7%), and for drinking (6%). A worrisome trend was that many local residents did not treat the water they were consuming. Climate change affects seasonal patterns of rainfall that will, in turn, determine the availability and quantities of water resources, provoking changes in the sources of water used by human populations, their strategies of access to that resource, and water-use patterns. It is necessary sustainable use of water resources based on the realities of local populations.}, }
@article {pmid28680673, year = {2017}, author = {Venugopal, PD and Dively, GP}, title = {Climate change, transgenic corn adoption and field-evolved resistance in corn earworm.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {4}, number = {6}, pages = {170210}, pmid = {28680673}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Increased temperature anomaly during the twenty-first century coincides with the proliferation of transgenic crops containing the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Berliner) (Bt) to express insecticidal Cry proteins. Increasing temperatures profoundly affect insect life histories and agricultural pest management. However, the implications of climate change on Bt crop-pest interactions and insect resistance to Bt crops remains unexamined. We analysed the relationship of temperature anomaly and Bt adoption with field-evolved resistance to Cry1Ab Bt sweet corn in a major pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie). Increased Bt adoption during 1996-2016 suppressed H. zea populations, but increased temperature anomaly buffers population reduction. Temperature anomaly and its interaction with elevated selection pressure from high Bt acreage probably accelerated the Bt-resistance development. Helicoverpa zea damage to corn ears, kernel area consumed, mean instars and proportion of late instars in Bt varieties increased with Bt adoption and temperature anomaly, through additive or interactive effects. Risk of Bt-resistant H. zea spreading is high given extensive Bt adoption, and the expected increase in overwintering and migration. Our study highlights the challenges posed by climate change for Bt biotechnology-based agricultural pest management, and the need to incorporate evolutionary processes affected by climate change into Bt-resistance management programmes.}, }
@article {pmid28680129, year = {2017}, author = {Arheimer, B and Donnelly, C and Lindström, G}, title = {Regulation of snow-fed rivers affects flow regimes more than climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {62}, pmid = {28680129}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {River flow is mainly controlled by climate, physiography and regulations, but their relative importance over large landmasses is poorly understood. Here we show from computational modelling that hydropower regulation is a key driver of flow regime change in snow-dominated regions and is more important than future climate changes. This implies that climate adaptation needs to include regulation schemes. The natural river regime in snowy regions has low flow when snow is stored and a pronounced peak flow when snow is melting. Global warming and hydropower regulation change this temporal pattern similarly, causing less difference in river flow between seasons. We conclude that in snow-fed rivers globally, the future climate change impact on flow regime is minor compared to regulation downstream of large reservoirs, and of similar magnitude over large landmasses. Our study not only highlights the impact of hydropower production but also that river regulation could be turned into a measure for climate adaptation to maintain biodiversity on floodplains under climate change.Global warming and hydropower regulations are major threats to future fresh-water availability and biodiversity. Here, the authors show that their impact on flow regime over a large landmass result in similar changes, but hydropower is more critical locally and may have potential for climate adaptation in floodplains.}, }
@article {pmid28675600, year = {2017}, author = {Frank, A and Howe, GT and Sperisen, C and Brang, P and Clair, JBS and Schmatz, DR and Heiri, C}, title = {Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {5358-5371}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13802}, pmid = {28675600}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Abies/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fagus/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Forests ; Picea/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Risk ; Seedlings/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Switzerland ; Trees/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest health and productivity. We studied potential genetic maladaptation to future climates in three major European tree species, Norway spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). A common garden experiment was conducted to evaluate the quantitative genetic variation in growth and phenology of seedlings from 77 to 92 native populations of each species from across Switzerland. We used multivariate genecological models to associate population variation with past seed source climates, and to estimate relative risk of maladaptation to current and future climates based on key phenotypic traits and three regional climate projections within the A1B scenario. Current risks from climate change were similar to average risks from current seed transfer practices. For all three climate models, future risks increased in spruce and beech until the end of the century, but remained low in fir. Largest average risks associated with climate projections for the period 2061-2090 were found for spruce seedling height (0.64), and for beech bud break and leaf senescence (0.52 and 0.46). Future risks for spruce were high across Switzerland. However, areas of high risk were also found in drought-prone regions for beech and in the southern Alps for fir. Genetic maladaptation to future climates is likely to become a problem for spruce and beech by the end of this century, but probably not for fir. Consequently, forest management strategies should be adjusted in the study area for spruce and beech to maintain productive and healthy forests in the future.}, }
@article {pmid28675588, year = {2017}, author = {Langston, AK and Kaplan, DA and Putz, FE}, title = {A casualty of climate change? Loss of freshwater forest islands on Florida's Gulf Coast.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {5383-5397}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13805}, pmid = {28675588}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Floods ; Florida ; *Forests ; *Fresh Water ; *Islands ; Seawater ; Species Specificity ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Sea level rise elicits short- and long-term changes in coastal plant communities by altering the physical conditions that affect ecosystem processes and species distributions. While the effects of sea level rise on salt marshes and mangroves are well studied, we focus on its effects on coastal islands of freshwater forest in Florida's Big Bend region, extending a dataset initiated in 1992. In 2014-2015, we evaluated tree survival, regeneration, and understory composition in 13 previously established plots located along a tidal creek; 10 plots are on forest islands surrounded by salt marsh, and three are in continuous forest. Earlier studies found that salt stress from increased tidal flooding prevented tree regeneration in frequently flooded forest islands. Between 1992 and 2014, tidal flooding of forest islands increased by 22%-117%, corresponding with declines in tree species richness, regeneration, and survival of the dominant tree species, Sabal palmetto (cabbage palm) and Juniperus virginiana (southern red cedar). Rates of S. palmetto and J. virginiana mortality increased nonlinearly over time on the six most frequently flooded islands, while salt marsh herbs and shrubs replaced forest understory vegetation along a tidal flooding gradient. Frequencies of tidal flooding, rates of tree mortality, and understory composition in continuous forest stands remained relatively stable, but tree regeneration substantially declined. Long-term trends identified in this study demonstrate the effect of sea level rise on spatial and temporal community reassembly trajectories that are dynamically re-shaping the unique coastal landscape of the Big Bend.}, }
@article {pmid28674198, year = {2017}, author = {Perkins, S}, title = {Inner Workings: How saving some of the Southeast's oldest trees might help scientists monitor climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {27}, pages = {6875-6876}, pmid = {28674198}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; North Carolina ; Taxodium/*growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid28668326, year = {2017}, author = {Peterson, AT and Campbell, LP and Moo-Llanes, DA and Travi, B and González, C and Ferro, MC and Ferreira, GEM and Brandão-Filho, SP and Cupolillo, E and Ramsey, J and Leffer, AMC and Pech-May, A and Shaw, JJ}, title = {Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae).}, journal = {International journal for parasitology}, volume = {47}, number = {10-11}, pages = {667-674}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijpara.2017.04.007}, pmid = {28668326}, issn = {1879-0135}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; Psychodidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {This study explores the present day distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in relation to climate, and transfers the knowledge gained to likely future climatic conditions to predict changes in the species' potential distribution. We used ecological niche models calibrated based on occurrences of the species complex from across its known geographic range. Anticipated distributional changes varied by region, from stability to expansion or decline. Overall, models indicated no significant north-south expansion beyond present boundaries. However, some areas suitable both at present and in the future (e.g., Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru) may offer opportunities for distributional expansion. Our models anticipated potential range expansion in southern Brazil and Argentina, but were variably successful in anticipating specific cases. The most significant climate-related change anticipated in the species' range was with regard to range continuity in the Amazon Basin, which is likely to increase in coming decades. Rather than making detailed forecasts of actual locations where Lu. longipalpis will appear in coming years, our models make interesting and potentially important predictions of broader-scale distributional tendencies that can inform heath policy and mitigation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid28667851, year = {2017}, author = {Vázquez-Rowe, I and Kahhat, R and Lorenzo-Toja, Y}, title = {Natural disasters and climate change call for the urgent decentralization of urban water systems.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {605-606}, number = {}, pages = {246-250}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.222}, pmid = {28667851}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Lima is gradually upgrading its urban water cycle to comply with improved sanitation standards, with the aim of treating the entire flow of water and wastewater that it creates. However, this paper examines the basic characteristics of the main treatment systems that are currently in operation in the Peruvian capital, highlighting the myopic and inefficient nature of these investments. It digs deep in the debate between centralized and decentralized water management systems in a city that is exposed to numerous hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Previous errors that have occurred in the developed world throughout the evolution process of the urban water cycle should be taken into consideration prior to any infrastructure development in emerging countries. For the particular case of Lima, special emphasis should be given to the resilience of its urban water system in order to guarantee rapid recovery after disaster events.}, }
@article {pmid28667849, year = {2017}, author = {Zhai, R and Tao, F}, title = {Contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change in seven typical catchments across China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {605-606}, number = {}, pages = {219-229}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.210}, pmid = {28667849}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Water ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Climate change and human activities are two major factors affecting water resource change. It is important to understand the roles of the major factors in affecting runoff change in different basins for watershed management. Here, we investigated the trends in climate and runoff in seven typical catchments in seven basins across China from 1961 to 2014. Then we attributed the runoff change to climate change and human activities in each catchment and in three time periods (1980s, 1990s and 2000s), using the VIC model and long-term runoff observation data. During 1961-2014, temperature increased significantly, while the trends in precipitation were insignificant in most of the catchments and inconsistent among the catchments. The runoff in most of the catchments showed a decreasing trend except the Yingluoxia catchment in the northwestern China. The contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change varied in different catchments and time periods. In the 1980s, climate change contributed more to runoff change than human activities, which was 84%, 59%, -66%, -50%, 59%, 94%, and -59% in the Nianzishan, Yingluoxia, Xiahui, Yangjiaping, Sanjiangkou, Xixian, and Changle catchment, respectively. After that, human activities had played a more essential role in runoff change. In the 1990s and 2000s, human activities contributed more to runoff change than in the 1980s. The contribution by human activities accounted for 84%, -68%, and 67% in the Yingluoxia, Xiahui, and Sanjiangkou catchment, respectively, in the 1990s; and -96%, -67%, -94%, and -142% in the Nianzishan, Yangjiaping, Xixian, and Changle catchment, respectively, in the 2000s. It is also noted that after 2000 human activities caused decrease in runoff in all catchments except the Yingluoxia. Our findings highlight that the effects of human activities, such as increase in water withdrawal, land use/cover change, operation of dams and reservoirs, should be well managed.}, }
@article {pmid28663496, year = {2017}, author = {Hsiang, S and Kopp, R and Jina, A and Rising, J and Delgado, M and Mohan, S and Rasmussen, DJ and Muir-Wood, R and Wilson, P and Oppenheimer, M and Larsen, K and Houser, T}, title = {Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {356}, number = {6345}, pages = {1362-1369}, doi = {10.1126/science.aal4369}, pmid = {28663496}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors-agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor-increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).}, }
@article {pmid28663479, year = {2017}, author = {Chin, G}, title = {Costing out the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {356}, number = {6345}, pages = {1346-1348}, doi = {10.1126/science.356.6345.1346-l}, pmid = {28663479}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid28663454, year = {2017}, author = {Pizer, WA}, title = {What's the damage from climate change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {356}, number = {6345}, pages = {1330-1331}, doi = {10.1126/science.aan5201}, pmid = {28663454}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid28663441, year = {2017}, author = {Schütte, S and Depoux, A and Vigil, S and Kowalski, C and Gemenne, F and Flahault, A}, title = {The influence of health concerns in scientific and policy debates on climate change.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and community health}, volume = {71}, number = {8}, pages = {747-749}, doi = {10.1136/jech-2015-206962}, pmid = {28663441}, issn = {1470-2738}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; *Health Policy ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Policy Making ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid28661294, year = {2017}, author = {Smith, JA and Vargo, J and Hoverter, SP}, title = {Climate Change and Public Health Policy.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {45}, number = {1_suppl}, pages = {82-85}, doi = {10.1177/1073110517703332}, pmid = {28661294}, issn = {1748-720X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses real and immediate impacts to the public health of populations around the globe. Adverse impacts are expected to continue throughout the century. Emphasizing co-benefits of climate action for health, combining adaptation and mitigation efforts, and increasing interagency coordination can effectively address both public health and climate change challenges.}, }
@article {pmid28660715, year = {2017}, author = {Wheatley, CJ and Beale, CM and Bradbury, RB and Pearce-Higgins, JW and Critchlow, R and Thomas, CD}, title = {Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {3704-3715}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13759}, pmid = {28660715}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Endangered Species ; }, abstract = {Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available.}, }
@article {pmid28660541, year = {2017}, author = {Sarzaeim, P and Bozorg-Haddad, O and Fallah-Mehdipour, E and Loáiciga, HA}, title = {Environmental water demand assessment under climate change conditions.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {189}, number = {7}, pages = {359}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-017-6067-3}, pmid = {28660541}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Hydrology ; Iran ; Temperature ; Water Resources ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Measures taken to cope with the possible effects of climate change on water resources management are key for the successful adaptation to such change. This work assesses the environmental water demand of the Karkheh river in the reach comprising Karkheh dam to the Hoor-al-Azim wetland, Iran, under climate change during the period 2010-2059. The assessment of the environmental demand applies (1) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and (2) downscaling methods. The first phase of this work projects temperature and rainfall in the period 2010-2059 under three RCPs and with two downscaling methods. Thus, six climatic scenarios are generated. The results showed that temperature and rainfall average would increase in the range of 1.7-5.2 and 1.9-9.2%, respectively. Subsequently, flows corresponding to the six different climatic scenarios are simulated with the unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evaporation, and stream flow data (IHACRES) rainfall-runoff model and are input to the Karkheh reservoir. The simulation results indicated increases of 0.9-7.7% in the average flow under the six simulation scenarios during the period of analysis. The second phase of this paper's methodology determines the monthly minimum environmental water demands of the Karkheh river associated with the six simulation scenarios using a hydrological method. The determined environmental demands are compared with historical ones. The results show that the temporal variation of monthly environmental demand would change under climate change conditions. Furthermore, some climatic scenarios project environmental water demand larger than and some of them project less than the baseline one.}, }
@article {pmid28658207, year = {2017}, author = {Lee, JR and Raymond, B and Bracegirdle, TJ and Chadès, I and Fuller, RA and Shaw, JD and Terauds, A}, title = {Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {547}, number = {7661}, pages = {49-54}, pmid = {28658207}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Biodiversity ; Climate Change/history/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Ecology/trends ; History, 21st Century ; *Ice Cover ; }, abstract = {Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km[2] by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.}, }
@article {pmid28654663, year = {2017}, author = {Lopes, TM and Bailly, D and Almeida, BA and Santos, NCL and Gimenez, BCG and Landgraf, GO and Sales, PCL and Lima-Ribeiro, MS and Cassemiro, FAS and Rangel, TF and Diniz-Filho, JAF and Agostinho, AA and Gomes, LC}, title = {Two sides of a coin: Effects of climate change on the native and non-native distribution of Colossoma macropomum in South America.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {e0179684}, pmid = {28654663}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; Characiformes/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Introduced Species ; Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; South America ; }, abstract = {Climate change and species invasions interact in nature, disrupting biological communities. Based on this knowledge, we simultaneously assessed the effects of climate change on the native distribution of the Amazonian fish Colossoma macropomum as well as on its invasiveness across river basins of South America, using ecological niche modeling. We used six niche models within the ensemble forecast context to predict the geographical distribution of C. macropomum for the present time, 2050 and 2080. Given that this species has been continuously introduced into non-native South American basins by fish farming activities, we added the locations of C. macropomum farms into the modeling process to obtain a more realistic scenario of its invasive potential. Based on modelling outputs we mapped climate refuge areas at different times. Our results showed that a plenty of climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of C. macropomum occurrence are located outside the original basins at the present time and that its invasive potential is greatly amplified by fish farms. Simulations of future geographic ranges revealed drastic range contraction in the native region, implying concerns not only with respect to the species conservation but also from a socio-economic perspective since the species is a cornerstone of artisanal and commercial fisheries in the Amazon. Although the invasive potential is projected to decrease in the face of climate change, climate refugia will concentrate in Paraná River, Southeast Atlantic and East Atlantic basins, putting intense, negative pressures on the native fish fauna these regions. Our findings show that short and long-term management actions are required for: i) the conservation of natural stocks of C. macropomum in the Amazon, and ii) protecting native fish fauna in the climate refuges of the invaded regions.}, }
@article {pmid28650153, year = {2017}, author = {Chapra, SC and Boehlert, B and Fant, C and Bierman, VJ and Henderson, J and Mills, D and Mas, DML and Rennels, L and Jantarasami, L and Martinich, J and Strzepek, KM and Paerl, HW}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in U.S. Freshwaters: A Screening-Level Assessment.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {51}, number = {16}, pages = {8933-8943}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.7b01498}, pmid = {28650153}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria ; Fresh Water ; *Harmful Algal Bloom ; Humans ; United States ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) have serious adverse effects on human and environmental health. Herein, we developed a modeling framework that predicts the effect of climate change on cyanobacteria concentrations in large reservoirs in the contiguous U.S. The framework, which uses climate change projections from five global circulation models, two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and two cyanobacterial growth scenarios, is unique in coupling climate projections with a hydrologic/water quality network model of the contiguous United States. Thus, it generates both regional and nationwide projections useful as a screening-level assessment of climate impacts on CyanoHAB prevalence as well as potential lost recreation days and associated economic value. Our projections indicate that CyanoHAB concentrations are likely to increase primarily due to water temperature increases tempered by increased nutrient levels resulting from changing demographics and climatic impacts on hydrology that drive nutrient transport. The combination of these factors results in the mean number of days of CyanoHAB occurrence ranging from about 7 days per year per waterbody under current conditions, to 16-23 days in 2050 and 18-39 days in 2090. From a regional perspective, we find the largest increases in CyanoHAB occurrence in the Northeast U.S., while the greatest impacts to recreation, in terms of costs, are in the Southeast.}, }
@article {pmid28649779, year = {2018}, author = {Razgour, O and Taggart, JB and Manel, S and Juste, J and Ibáñez, C and Rebelo, H and Alberdi, A and Jones, G and Park, K}, title = {An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology resources}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {18-31}, pmid = {28649779}, issn = {1755-0998}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Chiroptera/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; *Endangered Species ; *Environmental Exposure ; Genetics, Population/*methods ; Phylogeography ; Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population-level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype-environment association analysis, we identify potential climate-adaptive SNPs in our genomic data set and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore, a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.}, }
@article {pmid28649324, year = {2017}, author = {Rolls, RJ and Hayden, B and Kahilainen, KK}, title = {Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {4109-4128}, pmid = {28649324}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context-dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the ecological impact of climate change, (2) the separate and combined effects of climate and non-native invading species and (3) the underlying ecological processes or mechanisms responsible for changes in patterns of biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid28648261, year = {2017}, author = {Shader, RI}, title = {Drug Safety, Climate Change, Causality, and Predictability.}, journal = {Clinical therapeutics}, volume = {39}, number = {7}, pages = {1271-1274}, doi = {10.1016/j.clinthera.2017.06.004}, pmid = {28648261}, issn = {1879-114X}, }
@article {pmid28647992, year = {2017}, author = {Gao, JH and Li, LP and Wang, J and Liu, XB and Wu, HX and Li, J and Li, J and Liu, QY}, title = {[Progress of research in relation to the impact of climate change on children's health status].}, journal = {Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi}, volume = {38}, number = {6}, pages = {832-836}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.06.028}, pmid = {28647992}, issn = {0254-6450}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Public Health ; Research/trends ; }, abstract = {Along with global warming, climate change has become one of the biggest public health challenges. The unique metabolism, behavior, physiology and development in children, will make them suffer more from the climate change. In the present review, we summarized the progress and situation of studies on the associations between climate change and children's health also trying to provide adaptation and mitigation strategies. The purpose of this study was to offer scientific evidence for prevention and control on the adverse effects as injuries, diseases and deaths among children that resulted from the changes of climate.}, }
@article {pmid28644983, year = {2017}, author = {Guerrero-Meseguer, L and Marín, A and Sanz-Lázaro, C}, title = {Future heat waves due to climate change threaten the survival of Posidonia oceanica seedlings.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {230}, number = {}, pages = {40-45}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2017.06.039}, pmid = {28644983}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Alismatales/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Extreme Heat ; Germination ; Hot Temperature ; Mediterranean Sea ; Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development ; Plants ; Seedlings ; *Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {Extreme weather events are major drivers of ecological change, and their occurrence is likely to increase due to climate change. The transient increases in atmospheric temperatures are leading to a greater occurrence of heat waves, extreme events that can produce a substantial warming of water, especially in enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean Sea. Here, we tested the effects of current and predicted heat waves on the early stages of development of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica. Temperatures above 27 °C limited the growth of the plant by inhibiting its photosynthetic system. It suffered a reduction in leaf growth and faster leaf senescence, and in some cases mortality. This study demonstrates that the greater frequency of heat waves, along with anticipated temperature rises in coming decades, are expected to negatively affect the germination of P. oceanica seedlings.}, }
@article {pmid28642628, year = {2016}, author = {Liu, JC and Mickley, LJ and Sulprizio, MP and Dominici, F and Yue, X and Ebisu, K and Anderson, GB and Khan, RFA and Bravo, MA and Bell, ML}, title = {Particulate Air Pollution from Wildfires in the Western US under Climate Change.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {138}, number = {3}, pages = {655-666}, pmid = {28642628}, issn = {0165-0009}, support = {R21 ES022585/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R21 ES021427/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R21 ES024012/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R21 ES020152/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 ES019560/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 ES024332/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R00 ES022631/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly attributable to wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004-2009) and future (2046-2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model. Future estimates are obtained under a scenario of moderately increasing greenhouse gases by mid-century. We create a new term "Smoke Wave," defined as ≥2 consecutive days with high wildfire-specific PM2.5, to describe episodes of high air pollution from wildfires. We develop an interactive map to demonstrate the counties likely to suffer from future high wildfire pollution events. For 2004-2009, on days exceeding regulatory PM2.5 standards, wildfires contributed an average of 71.3% of total PM2.5. Under future climate change, we estimate that more than 82 million individuals will experience a 57% and 31% increase in the frequency and intensity, respectively, of Smoke Waves. Northern California, Western Oregon and the Great Plains are likely to suffer the highest exposure to widlfire smoke in the future. Results point to the potential health impacts of increasing wildfire activity on large numbers of people in a warming climate and the need to establish or modify US wildfire management and evacuation programs in high-risk regions. The study also adds to the growing literature arguing that extreme events in a changing climate could have significant consequences for human health.}, }
@article {pmid28642495, year = {2017}, author = {Schroeder, K and Chiggiato, J and Josey, SA and Borghini, M and Aracri, S and Sparnocchia, S}, title = {Rapid response to climate change in a marginal sea.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {4065}, pmid = {28642495}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Mediterranean Sea is a mid-latitude marginal sea, particularly responsive to climate change as reported by recent studies. The Sicily Channel is a choke point separating the sea in two main basins, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Western Mediterranean Sea. Here, we report and analyse a long-term record (1993-2016) of the thermohaline properties of the Intermediate Water that crosses the Sicily Channel, showing increasing temperature and salinity trends much stronger than those observed at intermediate depths in the global ocean. We investigate the causes of the observed trends and in particular determine the role of a changing climate over the Eastern Mediterranean, where the Intermediate Water is formed. The long-term Sicily record reveals how fast the response to climate change can be in a marginal sea like the Mediterranean Sea compared to the global ocean, and demonstrates the essential role of long time series in the ocean.}, }
@article {pmid28636099, year = {2017}, author = {Stahl, RG and Stauber, JL and Clements, WH}, title = {Spectators or participants: How can SETAC become more engaged in international climate change research programs?.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {36}, number = {8}, pages = {1971-1977}, doi = {10.1002/etc.3868}, pmid = {28636099}, issn = {1552-8618}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecotoxicology/*methods ; Environmental Pollution/*analysis ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pesticides/toxicity ; Program Development ; *Societies, Scientific ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Environmental toxicologists and chemists have been crucial to evaluating the chemical fate and toxicological effects of environmental contaminants, including chlorinated pesticides, before and after Rachel Carson's publication of Silent Spring in 1962. Like chlorinated pesticides previously, global climate change is widely considered to be one of the most important environmental challenges of our time. Over the past 30 yr, climate scientists and modelers have shown that greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 cause radiative forcing (climate forcing) and lead to increased global temperatures. Despite significant climate change research efforts worldwide, the climate science community has overlooked potential problems associated with chemical contaminants, in particular how climate change could magnify the ecological consequences of their use and disposal. It is conceivable that the impacts of legacy or new chemical contaminants on wildlife and humans may be exacerbated when climate changes, especially if global temperatures rise as predicted. This lack of attention to chemical contaminants represents an opportunity for environmental toxicologists and chemists to become part of the global research program, and our objective is to highlight the importance of and ways for that to occur. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:1971-1977. © 2017 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid28634416, year = {2017}, author = {Crespo, D and Grilo, TF and Baptista, J and Coelho, JP and Lillebø, AI and Cássio, F and Fernandes, I and Pascoal, C and Pardal, M&#xc2; and Dolbeth, M}, title = {New climatic targets against global warming: will the maximum 2 °C temperature rise affect estuarine benthic communities?.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {3918}, pmid = {28634416}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.}, }
@article {pmid28632781, year = {2017}, author = {Blasiak, R and Spijkers, J and Tokunaga, K and Pittman, J and Yagi, N and Österblom, H}, title = {Climate change and marine fisheries: Least developed countries top global index of vulnerability.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {e0179632}, pmid = {28632781}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; *Fisheries ; Food Supply ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Future impacts of climate change on marine fisheries have the potential to negatively influence a wide range of socio-economic factors, including food security, livelihoods and public health, and even to reshape development trajectories and spark transboundary conflict. Yet there is considerable variability in the vulnerability of countries around the world to these effects. We calculate a vulnerability index of 147 countries by drawing on the most recent data related to the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for vulnerability, we first construct aggregate indices for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using 12 primary variables. Seven out of the ten most vulnerable countries on the resulting index are Small Island Developing States, and the top quartile of the index includes countries located in Africa (17), Asia (7), North America and the Caribbean (4) and Oceania (8). More than 87% of least developed countries are found within the top half of the vulnerability index, while the bottom half includes all but one of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development member states. This is primarily due to the tremendous variation in countries' adaptive capacity, as no such trends are evident from the exposure or sensitivity indices. A negative correlation exists between vulnerability and per capita carbon emissions, and the clustering of states at different levels of development across the vulnerability index suggests growing barriers to meeting global commitments to reducing inequality, promoting human well-being and ensuring sustainable cities and communities. The index provides a useful tool for prioritizing the allocation of climate finance, as well as activities aimed at capacity building and the transfer of marine technology.}, }
@article {pmid28630484, year = {2017}, author = {Lu, Q and Zhao, D and Wu, S}, title = {Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {3845}, pmid = {28630484}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate warming causes changes in permafrost distribution, which affects the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle and carbon flux in cold regions. In this study, the Surface Frost Number model was applied to examine permafrost distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) under the four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The Kappa statistic was used to evaluate model results by comparing simulations of baseline permafrost distribution (1981-2010) with the existing frozen soil maps. The comparison shows that the Surface Frost Number model is suitable for simulating the general characteristics of permafrost distribution on the QTP. Simulated results suggest that areas of permafrost degradation would be the smallest in the near-term (2011‒2040) with the rates of 17.17%, 18.07%, 12.95% and 15.66% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. The rate of permafrost degradation would be faster in the mid-term (2041‒2070), especially under the RCP8.5 scenario (about 41.42%). Areas of permafrost degradation would be the largest in the long-term (2071‒2099) relative to baseline conditions, with a modelled 64.31% decrease in permafrost distribution using the RCP8.5 scenario. Our results would help the decision‒making for engineering construction program on the QTP, and support local units in their efforts to adapt climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28630444, year = {2017}, author = {Tjaden, NB and Suk, JE and Fischer, D and Thomas, SM and Beierkuhnlein, C and Semenza, JC}, title = {Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21[st] century.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {3813}, pmid = {28630444}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Chikungunya Fever/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Climate Change ; *Databases, Factual ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.}, }
@article {pmid28630302, year = {2017}, author = {Yang, B and He, M and Shishov, V and Tychkov, I and Vaganov, E and Rossi, S and Ljungqvist, FC and Bräuning, A and Grießinger, J}, title = {New perspective on spring vegetation phenology and global climate change based on Tibetan Plateau tree-ring data.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {27}, pages = {6966-6971}, pmid = {28630302}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Tibet ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Phenological responses of vegetation to climate, in particular to the ongoing warming trend, have received much attention. However, divergent results from the analyses of remote sensing data have been obtained for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the world's largest high-elevation region. This study provides a perspective on vegetation phenology shifts during 1960-2014, gained using an innovative approach based on a well-validated, process-based, tree-ring growth model that is independent of temporal changes in technical properties and image quality of remote sensing products. Twenty composite site chronologies were analyzed, comprising about 3,000 trees from forested areas across the TP. We found that the start of the growing season (SOS) has advanced, on average, by 0.28 d/y over the period 1960-2014. The end of the growing season (EOS) has been delayed, by an estimated 0.33 d/y during 1982-2014. No significant changes in SOS or EOS were observed during 1960-1981. April-June and August-September minimum temperatures are the main climatic drivers for SOS and EOS, respectively. An increase of 1 °C in April-June minimum temperature shifted the dates of xylem phenology by 6 to 7 d, lengthening the period of tree-ring formation. This study extends the chronology of TP phenology farther back in time and reconciles the disparate views on SOS derived from remote sensing data. Scaling up this analysis may improve understanding of climate change effects and related phenological and plant productivity on a global scale.}, }
@article {pmid28628974, year = {2017}, author = {Lin, H and Wang, X and Gong, P and Ren, J and Wang, C and Yuan, X and Wang, L and Yao, T}, title = {The influence of climate change on the accumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, black carbon and mercury in a shrinking remote lake of the southern Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {601-602}, number = {}, pages = {1814-1823}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.038}, pmid = {28628974}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {A sediment core from a remote lake, Pumoyum Co, located in the southern TP, was analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), black carbon (BC) and mercury. Concentrations ranged from 30 to 229ng/g for PAHs, 0.46 to 1.48mg/g for BC and 10 to 30ng/g for mercury. Significant correlations were found among the concentrations of PAHs, BC and mercury, suggesting the sources of these pollutants to be similar; mainly from combustion processes. Further diagnosis of the likely sources of BC and PAHs suggested that petroleum combustion has been one of the increasing sources in the last few decades, but biomass burning remains the dominant source of these pollutants. The historic trends of the three pollutants closely followed historic BC emission trends from Europe (before 1970) and southern Asia (after 2000). With economic development in southern Asia, concentrations of pollutants in the sediments of Pumoyum Co have increased during the past decade. However, the accumulation fluxes of the pollutants during that period remained stable, which may be due to the recent low precipitation and less catchment erosion of Pumoyum Co (experienced a drier climate and shrinking of lake area).}, }
@article {pmid28628676, year = {2017}, author = {de la Fuente, A and Rojas, M and Mac Lean, C}, title = {A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {e0179705}, pmid = {28628676}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the "well below 2°C" warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work's primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2.}, }
@article {pmid28628132, year = {2017}, author = {Moat, J and Williams, J and Baena, S and Wilkinson, T and Gole, TW and Challa, ZK and Demissew, S and Davis, AP}, title = {Resilience potential of the Ethiopian coffee sector under climate change.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {17081}, doi = {10.1038/nplants.2017.81}, pmid = {28628132}, issn = {2055-0278}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Coffea ; Ethiopia ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Coffee farming provides livelihoods for around 15 million farmers in Ethiopia and generates a quarter of the country's export earnings. Against a backdrop of rapidly increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall, there is an urgent need to understand the influence of climate change on coffee production. Using a modelling approach in combination with remote sensing, supported by rigorous ground-truthing, we project changes in suitability for coffee farming under various climate change scenarios, specifically by assessing the exposure of coffee farming to future climatic shifts. We show that 39-59% of the current growing area could experience climatic changes that are large enough to render them unsuitable for coffee farming, in the absence of significant interventions or major influencing factors. Conversely, relocation of coffee areas, in combination with forest conservation or re-establishment, could see at least a fourfold (>400%) increase in suitable coffee farming area. We identify key coffee-growing areas that are susceptible to climate change, as well as those that are climatically resilient.}, }
@article {pmid28623883, year = {2017}, author = {Dormann, CF and von Riedmatten, L and Scherer-Lorenzen, M}, title = {No consistent effect of plant species richness on resistance to simulated climate change for above- or below-ground processes in managed grasslands.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {23}, pmid = {28623883}, issn = {1472-6785}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Biomass ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Grassland ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/classification ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Species richness affects processes and functions in many ecosystems. Since management of temperate grasslands is directly affecting species composition and richness, it can indirectly govern how systems respond to fluctuations in environmental conditions. Our aim in this study was to investigate whether species richness in managed grasslands can buffer the effects of drought and warming manipulations and hence increase the resistance to climate change. We established 45 plots in three regions across Germany, each with three different management regimes (pasture, meadow and mown pasture). We manipulated spring warming using open-top chambers and summer drought using rain-out shelters for 4 weeks.<br><br>RESULTS: Measurements of species richness, above- and below-ground biomass and soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations showed significant but inconsistent differences among regions, managements and manipulations. We detected a three-way interaction between species richness, management and region, indicating that our study design was sensitive enough to detect even intricate effects.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We could not detect a pervasive effect of species richness on biomass differences between treatments and controls, indicating that a combination of spring warming and summer drought effects on grassland systems are not consistently moderated by species richness. We attribute this to the relatively high number of species even at low richness levels, which already provides the complementarity required for positive biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships. A review of the literature also indicates that climate manipulations largely fail to show richness-buffering, while natural experiments do, suggesting that such manipulations are milder than reality or incur treatment artefacts.}, }
@article {pmid28622371, year = {2017}, author = {Chui, APY and Ang, P}, title = {High tolerance to temperature and salinity change should enable scleractinian coral Platygyra acuta from marginal environments to persist under future climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {e0179423}, pmid = {28622371}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Hong Kong ; *Hot Temperature ; *Salinity ; }, abstract = {With projected changes in the marine environment under global climate change, the effects of single stressors on corals have been relatively well studied. However, more focus should be placed on the interactive effects of multiple stressors if their impacts upon corals are to be assessed more realistically. Elevation of sea surface temperature is projected under global climate change, and future increases in precipitation extremes related to the monsoon are also expected. Thus, the lowering of salinity could become a more common phenomenon and its impact on corals could be significant as extreme precipitation usually occurs during the coral spawning season. Here, we investigated the interactive effects of temperature [24, 27 (ambient), 30, 32°C] and salinity [33 psu (ambient), 30, 26, 22, 18, 14 psu] on larval settlement, post-settlement survival and early growth of the dominant coral Platygyra acuta from Hong Kong, a marginal environment for coral growth. The results indicate that elevated temperatures (+3°C and +5°C above ambient) did not have any significant effects on larval settlement success and post-settlement survival for up to 56 days of prolonged exposure. Such thermal tolerance was markedly higher than that reported in the literature for other coral species. Moreover, there was a positive effect of these elevated temperatures in reducing the negative effects of lowered salinity (26 psu) on settlement success. The enhanced settlement success brought about by elevated temperatures, together with the high post-settlement survival recorded up to 44 and 8 days of exposure under +3°C and +5°C ambient respectively, resulted in the overall positive effects of elevated temperatures on recruitment success. These results suggest that projected elevation in temperature over the next century should not pose any major problem for the recruitment success of P. acuta. The combined effects of higher temperatures and lowered salinity (26 psu) could even be beneficial. Therefore, corals that are currently present in marginal environments like Hong Kong, as exemplified by the dominant P. acuta, are likely to persist in a warmer and intermittently less saline, future ocean.}, }
@article {pmid28622225, year = {2017}, author = {Max, M}, title = {A Climate Change in Mechanical Ventilation?.}, journal = {Critical care medicine}, volume = {45}, number = {7}, pages = {1253-1255}, doi = {10.1097/CCM.0000000000002398}, pmid = {28622225}, issn = {1530-0293}, mesh = {*Acidosis, Respiratory ; *Climate Change ; Hospital Mortality ; Humans ; Hypercapnia ; Respiration, Artificial ; }, }
@article {pmid28621028, year = {2017}, author = {Laloë, JO and Cozens, J and Renom, B and Taxonera, A and Hays, GC}, title = {Climate change and temperature-linked hatchling mortality at a globally important sea turtle nesting site.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {11}, pages = {4922-4931}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13765}, pmid = {28621028}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Cabo Verde ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction ; Sex Determination Processes ; *Sex Ratio ; Temperature ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The study of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in vertebrates has attracted major scientific interest. Recently, concerns for species with TSD in a warming world have increased because imbalanced sex ratios could potentially threaten population viability. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the direct effects of increased temperatures on successful embryonic development. Using 6603 days of sand temperature data recorded across 6 years at a globally important loggerhead sea turtle rookery-the Cape Verde Islands-we show the effects of warming incubation temperatures on the survival of hatchlings in nests. Incorporating published data (n = 110 data points for three species across 12 sites globally), we show the generality of relationships between hatchling mortality and incubation temperature and hence the broad applicability of our findings to sea turtles in general. We use a mechanistic approach supplemented by empirical data to consider the linked effects of warming temperatures on hatchling output and on sex ratios for these species that exhibit TSD. Our results show that higher temperatures increase the natural growth rate of the population as more females are produced. As a result, we project that numbers of nests at this globally important site will increase by approximately 30% by the year 2100. However, as incubation temperatures near lethal levels, the natural growth rate of the population decreases and the long-term survival of this turtle population is threatened. Our results highlight concerns for species with TSD in a warming world and underline the need for research to extend from a focus on temperature-dependent sex determination to a focus on temperature-linked hatchling mortalities.}, }
@article {pmid28619023, year = {2017}, author = {Leicht, K and Seppälä, K and Seppälä, O}, title = {Potential for adaptation to climate change: family-level variation in fitness-related traits and their responses to heat waves in a snail population.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {140}, pmid = {28619023}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Fresh Water ; Genetic Variation ; Reproduction ; Snails/*genetics/immunology/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: On-going global climate change poses a serious threat for natural populations unless they are able to evolutionarily adapt to changing environmental conditions (e.g. increasing average temperatures, occurrence of extreme weather events). A prerequisite for evolutionary change is within-population heritable genetic variation in traits subject to selection. In relation to climate change, mainly phenological traits as well as heat and desiccation resistance have been examined for such variation. Therefore, it is important to investigate adaptive potential under climate change conditions across a broader range of traits. This is especially true for life-history traits and defences against natural enemies (e.g. parasites) since they influence organisms' fitness both directly and through species interactions. We examined the adaptive potential of fitness-related traits and their responses to heat waves in a population of a freshwater snail, Lymnaea stagnalis. We estimated family-level variation and covariation in life history (size, reproduction) and constitutive immune defence traits [haemocyte concentration, phenoloxidase (PO)-like activity, antibacterial activity of haemolymph] in snails experimentally exposed to typical (15 °C) and heat wave (25 °C) temperatures. We also assessed variation in the reaction norms of these traits between the treatments.<br><br>RESULTS: We found that at the heat wave temperature, snails were larger and reproduced more, while their immune defence was reduced. Snails showed high family-level variation in all examined traits within both temperature treatments. The only negative genetic correlation (between reproduction and antibacterial activity) appeared at the high temperature. However, we found no family-level variation in the responses of most examined traits to the experimental heat wave (i.e. largely parallel reaction norms between the treatments). Only the reduction of PO-like activity when exposed to the high temperature showed family-level variation, suggesting that the cost of heat waves may be lower for some families and could evolve under selection.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that there is genetic potential for adaptation within both thermal environments and that trait evolution may not be strongly affected by trade-offs between them. However, rare differences in thermal reaction norms across families indicate limited evolutionary potential in the responses of snails to changing temperatures during extreme weather events.}, }
@article {pmid28618659, year = {2017}, author = {Sjerps, RMA and Ter Laak, TL and Zwolsman, GJJG}, title = {Projected impact of climate change and chemical emissions on the water quality of the European rivers Rhine and Meuse: A drinking water perspective.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {601-602}, number = {}, pages = {1682-1694}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.250}, pmid = {28618659}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Drinking Water/*analysis ; Humans ; Netherlands ; Rivers/*chemistry ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Low river discharges of the rivers Rhine and Meuse are expected to occur more often and more prolonged in a changing climate. During these dry periods the dilution of point sources such as sewage effluents is reduced leading to a decline in chemical water quality. This study projects chemical water quality of the rivers Rhine and Meuse in the year 2050, based on projections of chemical emissions and two climate scenarios: moderate and fast climate change. It focuses on specific compounds known to be relevant to drinking water production, i.e. four pharmaceuticals, a herbicide and its metabolite and an artificial sweetener. Hydrological variability, climate change, and increased emission show a significant influence on the water quality in the Rhine and Meuse. The combined effect of changing future emissions of these compounds and reduced dilution due to climate change has leaded to increasing (peak) concentrations in the river water by a factor of two to four. Current water treatment efficiencies in the Netherlands are not sufficient to reduce these projected concentrations in drinking water produced from surface water below precautionary water target values. If future emissions are not sufficiently reduced or treatment efficiencies are not improved, these compounds will increasingly be found in drinking water, albeit at levels which pose no threat to human health.}, }
@article {pmid28616491, year = {2016}, author = {Fielding, G and McPherson, M and Hansen-Ketchum, P and MacDougall, D and Beltrami, H and Dunn, J}, title = {Climate change projections and public health systems: Building evidence-informed connections.}, journal = {One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {152-154}, pmid = {28616491}, issn = {2352-7714}, }
@article {pmid28616195, year = {2017}, author = {Li, J and Liu, F and Xue, Y and Zhang, Y and Li, D}, title = {Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {4003-4015}, pmid = {28616195}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km[2] from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km[2]) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.}, }
@article {pmid28614605, year = {2017}, author = {Martínez-García, LB and De Deyn, GB and Pugnaire, FI and Kothamasi, D and van der Heijden, MGA}, title = {Symbiotic soil fungi enhance ecosystem resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {5228-5236}, pmid = {28614605}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Mycorrhizae/*physiology ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Phosphorus ; *Rain ; *Soil Microbiology ; Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Substantial amounts of nutrients are lost from soils through leaching. These losses can be environmentally damaging, causing groundwater eutrophication and also comprise an economic burden in terms of lost agricultural production. More intense precipitation events caused by climate change will likely aggravate this problem. So far it is unresolved to which extent soil biota can make ecosystems more resilient to climate change and reduce nutrient leaching losses when rainfall intensity increases. In this study, we focused on arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, common soil fungi that form symbiotic associations with most land plants and which increase plant nutrient uptake. We hypothesized that AM fungi mitigate nutrient losses following intensive precipitation events (higher amount of precipitation and rain events frequency). To test this, we manipulated the presence of AM fungi in model grassland communities subjected to two rainfall scenarios: moderate and high rainfall intensity. The total amount of nutrients lost through leaching increased substantially with higher rainfall intensity. The presence of AM fungi reduced phosphorus losses by 50% under both rainfall scenarios and nitrogen losses by 40% under high rainfall intensity. Thus, the presence of AM fungi enhanced the nutrient interception ability of soils, and AM fungi reduced the nutrient leaching risk when rainfall intensity increases. These findings are especially relevant in areas with high rainfall intensity (e.g., such as the tropics) and for ecosystems that will experience increased rainfall due to climate change. Overall, this work demonstrates that soil biota such as AM fungi can enhance ecosystem resilience and reduce the negative impact of increased precipitation on nutrient losses.}, }
@article {pmid28606202, year = {2017}, author = {Adelaine, SA and Sato, M and Jin, Y and Godwin, H}, title = {An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) Hospitals, Wildfires Highest Priority.}, journal = {Prehospital and disaster medicine}, volume = {32}, number = {5}, pages = {556-562}, doi = {10.1017/S1049023X17006586}, pmid = {28606202}, issn = {1945-1938}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Demography ; *Disaster Planning ; Emergency Service, Hospital/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Health Services Needs and Demand ; Humans ; Los Angeles ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Introduction Although many studies have delineated the variety and magnitude of impacts that climate change is likely to have on health, very little is known about how well hospitals are poised to respond to these impacts. Hypothesis/Problem The hypothesis is that most modern hospitals in urban areas in the United States need to augment their current disaster planning to include climate-related impacts.<br><br>METHODS: Using Los Angeles County (California USA) as a case study, historical data for emergency department (ED) visits and projections for extreme-heat events were used to determine how much climate change is likely to increase ED visits by mid-century for each hospital. In addition, historical data about the location of wildfires in Los Angeles County and projections for increased frequency of both wildfires and flooding related to sea-level rise were used to identify which area hospitals will have an increased risk of climate-related wildfires or flooding at mid-century.<br><br>RESULTS: Only a small fraction of the total number of predicted ED visits at mid-century would likely to be due to climate change. By contrast, a significant portion of hospitals in Los Angeles County are in close proximity to very high fire hazard severity zones (VHFHSZs) and would be at greater risk to wildfire impacts as a result of climate change by mid-century. One hospital in Los Angeles County was anticipated to be at greater risk due to flooding by mid-century as a result of climate-related sea-level rise.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that several Los Angeles County hospitals should focus their climate-change-related planning on building resiliency to wildfires. Adelaine SA , Sato M , Jin Y , Godwin H . An assessment of climate change impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) hospitals, wildfires highest priority. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):556-562.}, }
@article {pmid28605863, year = {2017}, author = {Wu, L and Wang, S and Bai, X and Luo, W and Tian, Y and Zeng, C and Luo, G and He, S}, title = {Quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in a typical karst watershed, SW China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {601-602}, number = {}, pages = {1449-1465}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.288}, pmid = {28605863}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Rivers ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The Yinjiang River watershed is a typical karst watershed in Southwest China. The present study explored runoff change and its responses to different driving factors in the Yinjiang River watershed over the period of 1984 to 2015. The methods of cumulative anomaly, continuous wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall rank correlation trend test, and Hurst exponent were applied to analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change. The contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change were quantitatively assessed using the comparative method of the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ). The following results were obtained: (1) From 1984 to 2015, runoff and precipitation exhibited no-significant increasing trend, whereas evaporation exhibited significant decreasing trend. (2) In the future, runoff, precipitation, and evaporation will exhibit weak anti-persistent feature with different persistent times. This feature indicated that in their persistent times, runoff and precipitation will continuously decline, whereas evaporation will continuously increase. (3) Runoff and precipitation were well-synchronized with abrupt change features and stage characteristics, and exhibited consistent multi-timescale characteristics that were different from that of evaporation. (4) The contribution of precipitation to runoff change was 50%-60% and was considered high and stable. The contribution of evaporation to runoff change was 10%-90% and was variable with a positive or negative effects. The contribution of human activities to runoff change was 20%-60% and exerted a low positive or negative effect. (5) Climatic factors highly contributed to runoff change. By contrast, the contribution of human activities to runoff change was low. The contribution of climatic factors to runoff change was highly variable because of differences among base periods. In conclusion, this paper provides a basic theoretical understanding of the main factors that contribute to runoff change in a karst watershed.}, }
@article {pmid28605858, year = {2017}, author = {Liu, Y and Engel, BA and Collingsworth, PD and Pijanowski, BC}, title = {Optimal implementation of green infrastructure practices to minimize influences of land use change and climate change on hydrology and water quality: Case study in Spy Run Creek watershed, Indiana.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {601-602}, number = {}, pages = {1400-1411}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.015}, pmid = {28605858}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Nutrient loading from the Maumee River watershed is a significant reason for the harmful algal blooms (HABs) problem in Lake Erie. The nutrient loading from urban areas needs to be reduced with the installation of green infrastructure (GI) practices. The Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development 2.1 (L-THIA-LID 2.1) model was used to explore the influences of land use (LU) and climate change on water quantity and quality in Spy Run Creek watershed (SRCW) (part of Maumee River watershed), decide whether and where excess phosphorus loading existed, identify critical areas to understand where the greatest amount of runoff/pollutants originated, and optimally implement GI practices to obtain maximum environmental benefits with the lowest costs. Both LU/climate changes increased runoff/pollutants generated from the watershed. Areas with the highest runoff/pollutant amount per area, or critical areas, differed for various environmental concerns, land uses (LUs), and climates. Compared to optimization considering all areas, optimization conducted only in critical areas can provide similar cost-effective results with decreased computational time for low levels of runoff/pollutant reductions, but critical area optimization results were not as cost-effective for higher levels of runoff/pollutant reductions. Runoff/pollutants for 2011/2050 LUs/climates could be reduced to amounts of 2001 LU/climate by installation of GI practices with annual expenditures of $0.34 to $2.05 million. The optimization scenarios that were able to obtain the 2001 runoff level in 2011/2050, can also reduce all pollutants to 2001 levels in this watershed.}, }
@article {pmid28605840, year = {2017}, author = {Singh, P and Boote, KJ and Kadiyala, MDM and Nedumaran, S and Gupta, SK and Srinivas, K and Bantilan, MCS}, title = {An assessment of yield gains under climate change due to genetic modification of pearl millet.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {601-602}, number = {}, pages = {1226-1237}, pmid = {28605840}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Pennisetum/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; Plants, Genetically Modified/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Developing cultivars with traits that can enhance and sustain productivity under climate change will be an important climate smart adaptation option. The modified CSM-CERES-Pearl millet model was used to assess yield gains by modifying plant traits determining crop maturity duration, potential yield and tolerance to drought and heat in pearl millet cultivars grown at six locations in arid (Hisar, Jodhpur, Bikaner) and semi-arid (Jaipur, Aurangabad and Bijapur) tropical India and two locations in semi-arid tropical West Africa (Sadore in Niamey and Cinzana in Mali). In all the study locations the yields decreased when crop maturity duration was decreased by 10% both in current and future climate conditions; however, 10% increase in crop maturity significantly (p<0.05) increased yields at Aurangabad and Bijapur, but not at other locations. Increasing yield potential traits by 10% increased yields under both the climate situations in India and West Africa. Drought tolerance imparted the lowest yield gain at Aurangabad (6%), the highest at Sadore (30%) and intermediate at the other locations under current climate. Under climate change the contribution of drought tolerance to the yield of cultivars either increased or decreased depending upon changes in rainfall of the locations. Yield benefits of heat tolerance substantially increased under climate change at most locations, having the greatest effects at Bikaner (17%) in India and Sadore (13%) in West Africa. Aurangabad and Bijapur locations had no yield advantage from heat tolerance due to their low temperature regimes. Thus drought and heat tolerance in pearl millet increased yields under climate change in both the arid and semi-arid tropical climates with greater benefit in relatively hotter environments. This study will assists the plant breeders in evaluating new promising plant traits of pearl millet for adapting to climate change at the selected locations and other similar environments.}, }
@article {pmid28603538, year = {2017}, author = {Linnakoski, R and Forbes, KM and Wingfield, MJ and Pulkkinen, P and Asiegbu, FO}, title = {Testing Projected Climate Change Conditions on the Endoconidiophora polonica / Norway spruce Pathosystem Shows Fungal Strain Specific Effects.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {883}, pmid = {28603538}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Climate changes, exemplified by increased temperatures and CO2 concentration, pose a global threat to forest health. Of particular concern are pests and pathogens, with a warming climate altering their distributions and evolutionary capacity, while impairing the ability of some plants to respond to infections. Progress in understanding and mitigating such effects is currently hindered by a lack of empirical research. Norway spruce (Picea abies) is one of the most economically important tree species in northern Europe, and is considered highly vulnerable to changes in climate. It is commonly infected by the fungus Endoconidiophora polonica, and we hypothesized that damage caused to trees will increase under future climate change predictions. To test this hypothesis an in vivo greenhouse experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of a changed growing environment on E. polonica infected Norway spruce seedlings, comparing ambient conditions to predicted temperatures and CO2 levels in Finland for the years 2030 and 2100. In total, 450 seedlings were randomized amongst the three treatments, with 25 seedlings from each allocated to inoculation with one of five different fungal strains or mock-inoculation. Seedlings were monitored throughout the thermal growing season for mortality, and lesion length and depth indices were measured at the experiment conclusion. Disease severity (mortality and lesions) was consistently greater in fungal-inoculated than mock-inoculated seedlings. However, substantial differences were observed among fungal strains in response to climate scenarios. For example, although overall seedling mortality was highest under the most distant (and severe) climate change expectations, of the two fungal strains with the highest mortality counts (referred to as F4 and F5), one produced greater mortality under the 2030 and 2100 scenarios than ambient conditions, whereas climate scenario had no effect on the other. This study contributes to a limited body of empirical research on the effects of projected climate changes on forestry pathosystems, and is the first to investigate interactions between Norway spruce and E. polonica. The results indicate the potential for future climate changes to alter the impact of forest pathogens with implications for productivity, while highlighting the need for a strain-specific level of understanding of the disease agents.}, }
@article {pmid28602234, year = {2017}, author = {Furlong, MJ and Zalucki, MP}, title = {Climate change and biological control: the consequences of increasing temperatures on host-parasitoid interactions.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {20}, number = {}, pages = {39-44}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2017.03.006}, pmid = {28602234}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Moths/*parasitology/physiology ; Pest Control, Biological ; Temperature ; Wasps/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The relative thermal requirements and tolerances of hymenopteran parasitoids and their hosts were investigated based on published data. The optimal temperature (Topt) for development of parasitoids was significantly lower than that for their hosts. Given the limited plasticity of insect responses to high temperatures and the proximity of Topt to critical thermal maxima, this suggests that host-parasitoid interactions could be negatively affected by increasing global temperatures. A modelling study of the interactions between the diamondback moth and its parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum in Australia indicated that predicted temperature increases will have a greater negative impact on the distribution of the parasitoid than on its host and that they could lead to its exclusion from some agricultural regions where it is currently important.}, }
@article {pmid28599218, year = {2017}, author = {Islam, MT and Nursey-Bray, M}, title = {Adaptation to climate change in agriculture in Bangladesh: The role of formal institutions.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {200}, number = {}, pages = {347-358}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.05.092}, pmid = {28599218}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Bangladesh is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and adaptation is emerging as a key policy response. Place based programs that build adaptive capacity are needed. This paper explores the effectiveness of formal institutions in climate change adaptation for agriculture from the perspectives of farmers and institutional communities of practice within two drought-prone areas in Bangladesh. Our findings show that formal institutions via their communities of practice play an important role in building place based capacity for mitigation and adaptation strategies in agriculture. Over-emphasis on technology, lack of acknowledgement of cultural factors and a failure of institutional communities of practice to mediate and create linkages with informal institutional communities of practice remain barriers. We argue that in order for formal institutions to play an ongoing and crucial role in building adaptive agriculture in Bangladesh, they must incorporate cultural mechanisms and build partnerships with more community based informal institutions.}, }
@article {pmid28598413, year = {2017}, author = {O'Beirne, MD and Werne, JP and Hecky, RE and Johnson, TC and Katsev, S and Reavie, ED}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change has altered primary productivity in Lake Superior.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {15713}, pmid = {28598413}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter many facets of Earth's freshwater resources, especially lacustrine ecosystems. The effects of anthropogenic changes in Lake Superior, which is Earth's largest freshwater lake by area, are not well documented (spatially or temporally) and predicted future states in response to climate change vary. Here we show that Lake Superior experienced a slow, steady increase in production throughout the Holocene using (paleo)productivity proxies in lacustrine sediments to reconstruct past changes in primary production. Furthermore, data from the last century indicate a rapid increase in primary production, which we attribute to increasing surface water temperatures and longer seasonal stratification related to longer ice-free periods in Lake Superior due to anthropogenic climate warming. These observations demonstrate that anthropogenic effects have become a prominent influence on one of Earth's largest, most pristine lacustrine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid28596356, year = {2017}, author = {Ash, C}, title = {Down to the guts of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {356}, number = {6342}, pages = {1041-1042}, doi = {10.1126/science.356.6342.1041-c}, pmid = {28596356}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid28585927, year = {2017}, author = {Thirumalai, K and DiNezio, PN and Okumura, Y and Deser, C}, title = {Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {15531}, pmid = {28585927}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.}, }
@article {pmid28585765, year = {2017}, author = {Tei, S and Sugimoto, A and Yonenobu, H and Matsuura, Y and Osawa, A and Sato, H and Fujinuma, J and Maximov, T}, title = {Tree-ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {5179-5188}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13780}, pmid = {28585765}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Alaska ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Forests ; Seasons ; Siberia ; Temperature ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Circumboreal forest ecosystems are exposed to a larger magnitude of warming in comparison with the global average, as a result of warming-induced environmental changes. However, it is not clear how tree growth in these ecosystems responds to these changes. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of forest productivity to climate change using ring width indices (RWI) from a tree-ring width dataset accessed from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank and gridded climate datasets from the Climate Research Unit. A negative relationship of RWI with summer temperature and recent reductions in RWI were typically observed in continental dry regions, such as inner Alaska and Canada, southern Europe, and the southern part of eastern Siberia. We then developed a multiple regression model with regional meteorological parameters to predict RWI, and then applied to these models to predict how tree growth will respond to twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5 scenario). The projections showed a spatial variation and future continuous reduction in tree growth in those continental dry regions. The spatial variation, however, could not be reproduced by a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). The DGVM projected a generally positive trend in future tree growth all over the circumboreal region. These results indicate that DGVMs may overestimate future wood net primary productivity (NPP) in continental dry regions such as these; this seems to be common feature of current DGVMs. DGVMs should be able to express the negative effect of warming on tree growth, so that they simulate the observed recent reduction in tree growth in continental dry regions.}, }
@article {pmid28585396, year = {2019}, author = {Ferreira, WP and Ribeiro Júnior, JI and de Fátima Souza, C}, title = {Climate change does not impact on Coffea arabica yield in Brazil.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {99}, number = {12}, pages = {5270-5282}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.8465}, pmid = {28585396}, issn = {1097-0010}, support = {02.13.02.005.00.00//Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecu&#xe1;ria/ ; 02.13.02.005.00.00//Programa Caf&#xe9; 02/2013/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Coffea/*growth &amp; development ; Humidity ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Brazil is the largest producer of coffee in the world. Studies on climate change estimate large impacts on the production of Coffea arabica (C. arabica). In this context, it is necessary to know the quantitative production values to provide evidence for policy makers to target the prompt answer.<br><br>RESULTS: Using data from 18 municipalities located in five Brazilian states that produce more coffee in Brazil, in an unprecedented way, in this work it is shown that although the minimum temperature is the most important climatic variable for the production, its effect, although positive, and its degree of explanation, were technically too small to explain the volume of production in Brazilian conditions. According to the model of non-stationary time series ARIMA (1, 1, 0) coffee production in the future may reach almost four million tons, and the productivity almost 2500&#x2009;kg ha[-1] on average, with the advancement of technology as the main factor that should promote simultaneous increases in production and productivity. However, despite natural climate variations, which make it the most responsible for the variability of annual coffee production, the producer must increase the use of the technologies to support the Brazilian coffee agribusiness.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study reveal that coffee production in Brazil is due much more to productivity than to the minimum ambient temperature change over the long term; despite this, the climate variable should be considered the most influential on the production and productivity of coffee. &#xa9; 2017 Embrapa. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture &#xa9; 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid28584096, year = {2017}, author = {Roberts, CM and O'Leary, BC and McCauley, DJ and Cury, PM and Duarte, CM and Lubchenco, J and Pauly, D and Sáenz-Arroyo, A and Sumaila, UR and Wilson, RW and Worm, B and Castilla, JC}, title = {Marine reserves can mitigate and promote adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {24}, pages = {6167-6175}, pmid = {28584096}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Strong decreases in greenhouse gas emissions are required to meet the reduction trajectory resolved within the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, even these decreases will not avert serious stress and damage to life on Earth, and additional steps are needed to boost the resilience of ecosystems, safeguard their wildlife, and protect their capacity to supply vital goods and services. We discuss how well-managed marine reserves may help marine ecosystems and people adapt to five prominent impacts of climate change: acidification, sea-level rise, intensification of storms, shifts in species distribution, and decreased productivity and oxygen availability, as well as their cumulative effects. We explore the role of managed ecosystems in mitigating climate change by promoting carbon sequestration and storage and by buffering against uncertainty in management, environmental fluctuations, directional change, and extreme events. We highlight both strengths and limitations and conclude that marine reserves are a viable low-tech, cost-effective adaptation strategy that would yield multiple cobenefits from local to global scales, improving the outlook for the environment and people into the future.}, }
@article {pmid28580238, year = {2017}, author = {Atlin, GN and Cairns, JE and Das, B}, title = {Rapid breeding and varietal replacement are critical to adaptation of cropping systems in the developing world to climate change.}, journal = {Global food security}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {31-37}, pmid = {28580238}, issn = {2211-9124}, abstract = {Plant breeding is a key mechanism for adaptation of cropping systems to climate change. Much discussion of breeding for climate change focuses on genes with large effects on heat and drought tolerance, but phenology and stress tolerance are highly polygenic. Adaptation will therefore mainly result from continually adjusting allele frequencies at many loci through rapid-cycle breeding that delivers a steady stream of incrementally improved cultivars. This will require access to elite germplasm from other regions, shortened breeding cycles, and multi-location testing systems that adequately sample the target population of environments. The objective of breeding and seed systems serving smallholder farmers should be to ensure that they use varieties developed in the last 10 years. Rapid varietal turnover must be supported by active dissemination of new varieties, and active withdrawal of obsolete ones. Commercial seed systems in temperate regions achieve this through competitive seed markets, but in the developing world, most crops are not served by competitive commercial seed systems, and many varieties date from the end of the Green Revolution (the late 1970s, when the second generation of modern rice and wheat varieties had been widely adopted). These obsolete varieties were developed in a climate different than today's, placing farmers at risk. To reduce this risk, a strengthened breeding system is needed, with freer international exchange of elite varieties, short breeding cycles, high selection intensity, wide-scale phenotyping, and accurate selection supported by genomic technology. Governments need to incentivize varietal release and dissemination systems to continuously replace obsolete varieties.}, }
@article {pmid28577148, year = {2017}, author = {Mohammadzadeh, A and Mahdavi Damghani, A and Vafabakhsh, J and Deihimfard, R}, title = {Assessing energy efficiencies, economy, and global warming potential (GWP) effects of major crop production systems in Iran: a case study in East Azerbaijan province.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {24}, number = {20}, pages = {16971-16984}, pmid = {28577148}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Azerbaijan ; Crop Production ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Iran ; }, abstract = {Efficient use of energy in farming systems is one of the most important implications for decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigating global warming (GW). This paper describes the energy use patterns, analyze the economics, and report global warming potential effects of major crop production systems in East Azerbaijan province, Iran. For this purpose, 110 farmers whose main activity was major crop production in the region, including wheat, barley, carrot, tomato, onion, potato, alfalfa, corn silage, canola, and saffron, were surveyed. Some other data was obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad of Iran. Results showed that, in terms of total energy input, onion (87,556 Mj ha[-1]) and potato (80,869 Mj ha[-1]) production systems were more energy-intensive than other crops. Among the studied crops, the highest values of net return (6563.8 $ ha[-1]) and benefit/cost ratio (1.95) were related to carrot and corn silage production systems, respectively. Studies have also shown that onion and saffron production systems emit the highest (5332.6 kg CO2eq ha[-1]) and lowest (646.24 kg CO2eq ha[-1]) CO2 eq. emission, respectively. When it was averaged across crops, diesel fuel accounted for the greatest GHG contribution with 43% of the total, followed by electric power (28%) and nitrogen fertilizer (21%). In the present study, eco-efficiency was calculated as a ratio of the gross production value and global warming potential effect for the studied crops. Out of all the studied crops, the highest values of eco-efficiency were calculated to be 8.65 $ kg CO2eq[-1] for the saffron production system followed by the carrot (3.65 $ kg CO2eq[-1]) production. Generally, from the aspect of energy balance and use efficiency, the alfalfa production system was the best; however, from an economical point of view, the carrot production system was better than the other crops.}, }
@article {pmid28575836, year = {2017}, author = {Bonfante, A and Impagliazzo, A and Fiorentino, N and Langella, G and Mori, M and Fagnano, M}, title = {Supporting local farming communities and crop production resilience to climate change through giant reed (Arundo donax L.) cultivation: An Italian case study.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {601-602}, number = {}, pages = {603-613}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.214}, pmid = {28575836}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Bioenergy crops are well known for their ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the soil carbon stock. Although such crops are often held to be in competition with food crops and thus raise the question of current and future food security, at the same time mitigation measures are required to tackle climate change and sustain local farming communities and crop production. However, in some cases the actions envisaged for specific pedo-climatic conditions are not always economically sustainable by farmers. In this frame, energy crops with high environmental adaptability and yields, such as giant reed (Arundo donax L.), may represent an opportunity to improve farm incomes, making marginal areas not suitable for food production once again productive. In so doing, three of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations would be met, namely SDG 2 on food security and sustainable agriculture, SDG 7 on reliable, sustainable and modern energy, and SDG 13 on action to combat climate change and its impacts. In this work, the response of giant reed in the marginal areas of an agricultural district of southern Italy (Destra Sele) and expected farm incomes under climate change (2021-2050) are evaluated. The normalized water productivity index of giant reed was determined (WP; 30.1gm[-2]) by means of a SWAP agro-hydrological model, calibrated and validated on two years of a long-term field experiment. The model was used to estimate giant reed response (biomass yield) in marginal areas under climate change, and economic evaluation was performed to determine expected farm incomes (woodchips and chopped forage). The results show that woodchip production represents the most profitable option for farmers, yielding a gross margin 50% lower than ordinary high-input maize cultivation across the study area.}, }
@article {pmid28574568, year = {2017}, author = {Unger, N and Yue, X and Harper, KL}, title = {Aerosol climate change effects on land ecosystem services.}, journal = {Faraday discussions}, volume = {200}, number = {}, pages = {121-142}, doi = {10.1039/c7fd00033b}, pmid = {28574568}, issn = {1364-5498}, mesh = {Aerosols/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {A coupled global aerosol-carbon-climate model is applied to assess the impacts of aerosol physical climate change on the land ecosystem services gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) in the 1996-2005 period. Aerosol impacts are quantified on an annual mean basis relative to the hypothetical aerosol-free world in 1996-2005, the global climate state in the absence of the historical rise in aerosol pollution. We examine the separate and combined roles of fast feedbacks associated with the land and slow feedbacks associated with the ocean. We consider all fossil fuel, biofuel and biomass burning aerosol emission sources as anthropogenic. The effective radiative forcing for aerosol-radiation interactions is -0.44 W m[-2] and aerosol-cloud interactions is -1.64 W m[-2]. Aerosols cool and dry the global climate system by -0.8 °C and -0.08 mm per day relative to the aerosol-free world. Without aerosol pollution, human-induced global warming since the preindustrial would have already exceeded the 1.5 °C aspirational limit set in the Paris Agreement by the 1996-2005 decade. Aerosol climate impacts on the global average land ecosystem services are small due to large opposite sign effects in the tropical and boreal biomes. Aerosol slow feedbacks associated with the ocean strongly dominate impacts in the Amazon and North American Boreal. Aerosol cooling of the Amazon by -1.2 °C drives NPP increases of 8% or +0.76 ± 0.61 PgC per year, a 5-10 times larger impact than estimates of diffuse radiation fertilization by biomass burning aerosol in this region. The North American Boreal suffers GPP and NPP decreases of 35% due to aerosol-induced cooling and drying (-1.6 °C, -0.14 mm per day). Aerosol-land feedbacks play a larger role in the eastern US and Central Africa. Our study identifies an eco-climate teleconnection in the polluted earth system: the rise of the northern hemisphere mid-latitude reflective aerosol pollution layer causes long range cooling that protects Amazon NPP by 8% and suppresses boreal NPP by 35%.}, }
@article {pmid28573600, year = {2017}, author = {Lamsal, P and Kumar, L and Atreya, K and Pant, KP}, title = {Vulnerability and impacts of climate change on forest and freshwater wetland ecosystems in Nepal: A review.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {46}, number = {8}, pages = {915-930}, pmid = {28573600}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forests ; Fresh Water ; Nepal ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) threatens ecosystems in both developed and developing countries. As the impacts of CC are pervasive, global, and mostly irreversible, it is gaining worldwide attention. Here we review vulnerability and impacts of CC on forest and freshwater wetland ecosystems. We particularly look at investigations undertaken at different geographic regions in order to identify existing knowledge gaps and possible implications from such vulnerability in the context of Nepal along with available adaptation programs and national-level policy supports. Different categories of impacts which are attributed to disrupting structure, function, and habitat of both forest and wetland ecosystems are identified and discussed. We show that though still unaccounted, many facets of forest and freshwater wetland ecosystems of Nepal are vulnerable and likely to be impacted by CC in the near future. Provisioning ecosystem services and landscape-level ecosystem conservation are anticipated to be highly threatened with future CC. Finally, the need for prioritizing CC research in Nepal is highlighted to close the existing knowledge gap along with the implementation of adaptation measures based on existing location specific traditional socio-ecological system.}, }
@article {pmid28573380, year = {2017}, author = {Ibáñez, I and Katz, DSW and Lee, BR}, title = {The contrasting effects of short-term climate change on the early recruitment of tree species.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {184}, number = {3}, pages = {701-713}, pmid = {28573380}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Seedlings/*growth &amp; development ; Soil ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Predictions of plant responses to climate change are frequently based on organisms' presence in warmer locations, which are then assumed to reflect future performance in cooler areas. However, as plant life stages may be affected differently by environmental changes, there is little empirical evidence that this approach provides reliable estimates of short-term responses to global warming. Under this premise, we analyzed 8 years of early recruitment data, seed production and seedling establishment and survival, collected for two tree species at two latitudes. We quantified recruitment to a wide range of environmental conditions, temperature, soil moisture and light, and simulated recruitment under two forecasted climatic scenarios. Annual demographic transitions were affected by the particular conditions taking place during their onset, but the effects of similar environmental shifts differed among the recruitment stages; seed production was higher in warmer years, while seedling establishment and survival peaked during cold years. Within a species, these effects also varied between latitudes; increasing temperatures at the southern location will have stronger detrimental effects on recruitment than similar changes at the northern locations. Our simulations illustrate that warmer temperatures may increase seed production, but they will have a negative effect on establishment and survival. When the three early recruitment processes were simultaneously considered, simulations showed little change in recruitment dynamics at the northern site and a slight decrease at the southern site. It is only when we considered these three stages that we were able to assess likely changes in early recruitment under the predicted conditions.}, }
@article {pmid28573342, year = {2017}, author = {Sauerborn, R}, title = {A gaping research gap regarding the climate change impact on health in poor countries.}, journal = {European journal of epidemiology}, volume = {32}, number = {9}, pages = {855-856}, pmid = {28573342}, issn = {1573-7284}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; Global Health ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Research ; }, }
@article {pmid28570976, year = {2017}, author = {Shrestha, NK and Du, X and Wang, J}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on fresh water resources of the Athabasca River Basin, Canada.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {601-602}, number = {}, pages = {425-440}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.013}, pmid = {28570976}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Proper management of blue and green water resources is important for the sustainability of ecosystems and for the socio-economic development of river basins such as the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Canada. For this reason, quantifying climate change impacts on these water resources at a finer temporal and spatial scale is often necessary. In this study, we used a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess climate change impacts on fresh water resources, focusing explicitly on the impacts to both blue and green water. We used future climate data generated by the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) with a spatial resolution of 0.22°×0.22° (~25km) for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Results projected the climate of the ARB to be wetter by 21-34% and warmer by 2-5.4°C on an annual time scale. Consequently, the annual average blue and green water flow was projected to increase by 16-54% and 11-34%, respectively, depending on the region, future period, and emission scenario. Furthermore, the annual average green water storage at the boreal region was expected to increase by 30%, while the storage was projected to remain fairly stable or decrease in other regions, especially during the summer season. On average, the fresh water resources in the ARB are likely to increase in the future. However, evidence of temporal and spatial heterogeneity could pose many future challenges to water resource planners and managers.}, }
@article {pmid28570962, year = {2017}, author = {Obydenkova, AV and Salahodjaev, R}, title = {Climate change policies: The role of democracy and social cognitive capital.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {157}, number = {}, pages = {182-189}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2017.05.009}, pmid = {28570962}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Democracy ; *Environmental Policy ; Humans ; *Social Capital ; }, abstract = {The impact of democracy on governments' choice of environmental policies has attracted significant academic attention in recent years. However, less attention has been devoted to the role of the social cognitive capital of the national population. Does society's cognitive capital matter in governmental choice regarding environmental policies, if at all? This study addresses this question through a large-N analysis of 94 countries accounting for the role of both political regimes and social capital in governmental choice of climate change policies. We find that higher social cognitive capital within a democratic state radically increases that state's commitment to adopt environmental policies. More specifically, a 1-point increase in the democracy index is associated with nearly 5 points increase in the adoption of the Climate Laws, Institutions and Measures Index (CLIMI). In a similar vein, a 10 points increase in social cognitive capital is associated with a nearly 16 points increase in CLIMI. The findings presented in this study aim to contribute to the ongoing debate on the impact of democracy and the cognitive capital of society on international environmentalism. The findings will also be interesting for scholars working on the impact of political institutional factors and the role of society in environmental policy choices made at the international level.}, }
@article {pmid28570219, year = {2017}, author = {Yuan, ZY and Jiao, F and Shi, XR and Sardans, J and Maestre, FT and Delgado-Baquerizo, M and Reich, PB and Peñuelas, J}, title = {Experimental and observational studies find contrasting responses of soil nutrients to climate change.}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {28570219}, issn = {2050-084X}, support = {242658/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; 610028/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; 647038/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Carbon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Food ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Manipulative experiments and observations along environmental gradients, the two most common approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling, are generally assumed to produce similar results, but this assumption has rarely been tested. We did so by conducting a meta-analysis and found that soil nutrients responded differentially to drivers of climate change depending on the approach considered. Soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with water addition in manipulative experiments but increased with annual precipitation along environmental gradients. Different patterns were also observed between warming experiments and temperature gradients. Our findings provide evidence of inconsistent results and suggest that manipulative experiments may be better predictors of the causal impacts of short-term (months to years) climate change on soil nutrients but environmental gradients may provide better information for long-term correlations (centuries to millennia) between these nutrients and climatic features. Ecosystem models should consequently incorporate both experimental and observational data to properly assess the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling.}, }
@article {pmid28566698, year = {2017}, author = {Ouyang, H and Hu, C}, title = {Insight into climate change from the carbon exchange of biocrusts utilizing non-rainfall water.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {2573}, pmid = {28566698}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Biocrusts are model ecosystems of global change studies. However, light and non-rainfall water (NRW) were previously few considered. Different biocrust types further aggravated the inconsistence. So carbon-exchange of biocrusts (cyanobacteria crusts-AC1/AC2; cyanolichen crust-LC1; chlorolichen crust-LC2; moss crust-MC) utilizing NRW at various temperatures and light-intensities were determined under simulated and insitu mesocosm experiments. Carbon input of all biocrusts were negatively correlated with experimental temperature under all light-intensity with saturated water and stronger light with equivalent NRW, but positively correlated with temperature under weak light with equivalent NRW. LCPs and R/Pg of AC1 were lowest, followed in turn by AC2, LC2 and MC. Thus AC1 had most opportunities to use NRW, and 2.5 °C warming did cause significant changes of carbon exchange. Structural equation models further revealed that air-temperature was most important for carbon-exchange of ACs, but equally important as NRW for LC2 and MC; positive influence of warming on carbon-input in ACs was much stronger than the latter. Therefore, temperature effect on biocrust carbon-input depends on both moisture and light. Meanwhile, the role of NRW, transitional states between ACs, and obvious carbon-fixation differences between lichen crusts should be fully considered in the future study of biocrusts responding to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28566031, year = {2017}, author = {Navia, R and Chamy, R}, title = {The link between waste management, climate change and bioeconomy.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {561-562}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X17712622}, pmid = {28566031}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Waste Management ; }, }
@article {pmid28562825, year = {2017}, author = {Melo, DCD and Wendland, E}, title = {Shallow aquifer response to climate change scenarios in a small catchment in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {89}, number = {1 Suppl&#xa0;0}, pages = {391-406}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765201720160264}, pmid = {28562825}, issn = {1678-2690}, abstract = {Water availability restrictions are already a reality in several countries. This issue is likely to worsen due to climate change, predicted for the upcoming decades. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate change on groundwater system in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models (GCM) outputs were used as inputs to a water balance model, which produced recharge estimates for the groundwater model. Recharge was estimated across different land use types considering a control period from 2004 to 2014, and a future period from 2081 to 2099. Major changes in monthly rainfall means are expected to take place in dry seasons. Most of the analysed scenarios predict increase of more than 2 ºC in monthly mean temperatures. Comparing the control and future runs, our results showed a mean recharge change among scenarios that ranged from ~-80 to ~+60%, depending on the land use type. As a result of such decrease in recharge rates, the response given by the groundwater model indicates a lowering of the water table under most scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid28560343, year = {2017}, author = {Fei, S and Desprez, JM and Potter, KM and Jo, I and Knott, JA and Oswalt, CM}, title = {Divergence of species responses to climate change.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {e1603055}, pmid = {28560343}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Phylogeny ; *Quantitative Trait Loci ; *Trees/genetics/growth &amp; development ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change can have profound impacts on biodiversity and the sustainability of many ecosystems. Various studies have investigated the impacts of climate change, but large-scale, trait-specific impacts are less understood. We analyze abundance data over time for 86 tree species/groups across the eastern United States spanning the last three decades. We show that more tree species have experienced a westward shift (73%) than a poleward shift (62%) in their abundance, a trend that is stronger for saplings than adult trees. The observed shifts are primarily due to the changes of subpopulation abundances in the leading edges and are significantly associated with changes in moisture availability and successional processes. These spatial shifts are associated with species that have similar traits (drought tolerance, wood density, and seed weight) and evolutionary histories (most angiosperms shifted westward and most gymnosperms shifted poleward). Our results indicate that changes in moisture availability have stronger near-term impacts on vegetation dynamics than changes in temperature. The divergent responses to climate change by trait- and phylogenetic-specific groups could lead to changes in composition of forest ecosystems, putting the resilience and sustainability of various forest ecosystems in question.}, }
@article {pmid28552975, year = {2017}, author = {Herzog, R and Hadrys, H}, title = {Long-term genetic monitoring of a riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae]: Direct anthropogenic impact versus climate change effects.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {e0178014}, pmid = {28552975}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Odonata/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Modern conservationists call for long term genetic monitoring datasets to evaluate and understand the impact of human activities on natural ecosystems and species on a global but also local scale. However, long-term monitoring datasets are still rare but in high demand to correctly identify, evaluate and respond to environmental changes. In the presented study, a population of the riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae), was monitored over a time period from 1989 to 2013. Study site was an artificial irrigation ditch in one of the last European stone steppes and "nature heritage", the Crau in Southern France. This artificial riverine habitat has an unusual high diversity of odonate species, prominent indicators for evaluating freshwater habitats. A clearing of the canal and destruction of the bank vegetation in 1996 was assumed to have great negative impact on the odonate larval and adult populations. Two mitochondrial markers (CO1 &amp; ND1) and a panel of nuclear microsatellite loci were used to assess the genetic diversity. Over time they revealed a dramatic decline in diversity parameters between the years 2004 and 2007, however not between 1996 and 1997. From 2007 onwards the population shows a stabilizing trend but has not reached the amount of genetic variation found at the beginning of this survey. This decline cannot be referred to the clearing of the canal or any other direct anthropogenic impact. Instead, it is most likely that the populations' decay was due to by extreme weather conditions during the specific years. A severe drought was recorded for the summer months of these years, leading to reduced water levels in the canal causing also other water parameters to change, and therefore impacting temperature sensitive riverine habitat specialists like the O. coerulescens in a significant way. The data provide important insights into population genetic dynamics and metrics not always congruent with traditional monitoring data (e.g. abundance); a fact that should be regarded with caution when management plans for developed landscapes are designed.}, }
@article {pmid28550724, year = {2017}, author = {Hancock, GR and Verdon-Kidd, D and Lowry, JBC}, title = {Soil erosion predictions from a landscape evolution model - An assessment of a post-mining landform using spatial climate change analogues.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {601-602}, number = {}, pages = {109-121}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.04.038}, pmid = {28550724}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Landscape Evolution Modelling (LEM) technologies provide a means by which it is possible to simulate the long-term geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform. However, simulations rarely consider the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change and consequently risk not accounting for the range of rainfall variability that might be expected in both the near and far future. One issue is that high resolution (both spatial and temporal) rainfall projections incorporating the potential effects of greenhouse forcing are required as input. However, projections of rainfall change are still highly uncertain for many regions, particularly at sub annual/seasonal scales. This is the case for northern Australia, where a decrease or an increase in rainfall post 2030 is considered equally likely based on climate model simulations. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate a spatial analogue approach to develop point scale hourly rainfall scenarios to be used as input to the CAESAR - Lisflood LEM to test the sensitivity of the geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform to potential changes in climate. Importantly, the scenarios incorporate the range of projected potential increase/decrease in rainfall for northern Australia and capture the expected envelope of erosion rates and erosion patterns (i.e. where erosion and deposition occurs) over a 100year modelled period. We show that all rainfall scenarios produce sediment output and gullying greater than that of the surrounding natural system, however a 'wetter' future climate produces the highest output. Importantly, incorporating analogue rainfall scenarios into LEM has the capacity to both improve landform design and enhance the modelling software. Further, the method can be easily transferred to other sites (both nationally and internationally) where rainfall variability is significant and climate change impacts are uncertain.}, }
@article {pmid28549233, year = {2017}, author = {Landrum, AR and Lull, RB and Akin, H and Hasell, A and Jamieson, KH}, title = {Processing the papal encyclical through perceptual filters: Pope Francis, identity-protective cognition, and climate change concern.}, journal = {Cognition}, volume = {166}, number = {}, pages = {1-12}, doi = {10.1016/j.cognition.2017.05.015}, pmid = {28549233}, issn = {1873-7838}, mesh = {*Catholicism ; *Climate Change ; *Cognition ; Humans ; *Social Identification ; }, abstract = {Previous research suggests that when individuals encounter new information, they interpret it through perceptual 'filters' of prior beliefs, relevant social identities, and messenger credibility. In short, evaluations are not based solely on message accuracy, but also on the extent to which the message and messenger are amenable to the values of one's social groups. Here, we use the release of Pope Francis's 2015 encyclical as the context for a natural experiment to examine the role of prior values in climate change cognition. Based on our analysis of panel data collected before and after the encyclical's release, we find that political ideology moderated views of papal credibility on climate change for those participants who were aware of the encyclical. We also find that, in some contexts, non-Catholics who were aware of the encyclical granted Pope Francis additional credibility compared to the non-Catholics who were unaware of it, yet Catholics granted the Pope high credibility regardless of encyclical awareness. Importantly, papal credibility mediated the conditional relationships between encyclical awareness and acceptance of the Pope's messages on climate change. We conclude by discussing how our results provide insight into cognitive processing of new information about controversial issues.}, }
@article {pmid28548115, year = {2017}, author = {Mann, ME and Rahmstorf, S and Kornhuber, K and Steinman, BA and Miller, SK and Coumou, D}, title = {Corrigendum: Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {46822}, doi = {10.1038/srep46822}, pmid = {28548115}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/srep45242.}, }
@article {pmid28545604, year = {2017}, author = {Sukhbaatar, C and Sajjad, RU and Lunten, J and Yu, SH and Lee, CH}, title = {Climate Change Impact on the Tuul River Flow in a Semiarid Region in Mongolia.}, journal = {Water environment research : a research publication of the Water Environment Federation}, volume = {89}, number = {6}, pages = {527-538}, doi = {10.2175/106143016X14798353399223}, pmid = {28545604}, issn = {1061-4303}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Hydrology ; Mongolia ; *Rivers ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {This study investigated the impact of climate change on the Tuul River flow in a semiarid region in Mongolia using statistical methods and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The authors found that the precipitation showed cyclic variability (three dry and two wet periods) at inter- and multi-decadal scales throughout the study period (1945-2012). Both river flow and actual evapotranspiration (ET) showed a positive relationship with precipitation. In addition, the river flow further decreased due to increased water loss in percentage via actual ET even though the amount of actual ET decreased during dry periods. A significant increase in air temperature by 1.3 to 1.8 °C was recorded during latest dry period (1996-2012). Increase in temperature resulted in an added stressor, where water loss in percentage via actual ET increased more and resulted in an additional decrease in the river flow. This study concluded that precipitation has a stronger influence on the Tuul River flow than temperature.}, }
@article {pmid28544153, year = {2017}, author = {Auld, SKJR and Brand, J}, title = {Simulated climate change, epidemic size, and host evolution across host-parasite populations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {5045-5053}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13769}, pmid = {28544153}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Daphnia/genetics/*parasitology ; Ecology ; Genetic Variation ; Genotype ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; *Models, Biological ; Pasteuria/*physiology ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {Climate change is causing warmer and more variable temperatures as well as physical flux in natural populations, which will affect the ecology and evolution of infectious disease epidemics. Using replicate seminatural populations of a coevolving freshwater invertebrate-parasite system (host: Daphnia magna, parasite: Pasteuria ramosa), we quantified the effects of ambient temperature and population mixing (physical flux within populations) on epidemic size and population health. Each population was seeded with an identical suite of host genotypes and dose of parasite transmission spores. Biologically reasonable increases in environmental temperature caused larger epidemics, and population mixing reduced overall epidemic size. Mixing also had a detrimental effect on host populations independent of disease. Epidemics drove parasite-mediated selection, leading to a loss of host genetic diversity, and mixed populations experienced greater evolution due to genetic drift over the season. These findings further our understanding of how diversity loss will reduce the host populations' capacity to respond to changes in selection, therefore stymying adaptation to further environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid28542172, year = {2017}, author = {Dangles, O and Rabatel, A and Kraemer, M and Zeballos, G and Soruco, A and Jacobsen, D and Anthelme, F}, title = {Ecosystem sentinels for climate change? Evidence of wetland cover changes over the last 30 years in the tropical Andes.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {e0175814}, pmid = {28542172}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Bolivia ; *Climate Change ; Grassland ; Ice Cover ; Linear Models ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Spacecraft ; Time Factors ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {While the impacts of climate change on individual species and communities have been well documented there is little evidence on climate-mediated changes for entire ecosystems. Pristine alpine environments can provide unique insights into natural, physical and ecological response to climate change yet broad scale and long-term studies on these potential 'ecosystem sentinels' are scarce. We addressed this issue by examining cover changes of 1689 high-elevation wetlands (temporarily or perennial water-saturated grounds) in the Bolivian Cordillera Real, a region that has experienced significant warming and glacier melting over the last 30 years. We combined high spatial resolution satellite images from PLEIADES with the long-term images archive from LANDSAT to 1) examine environmental factors (e.g., glacier cover, wetland and watershed size) that affected wetland cover changes, and 2) identify wetlands' features that affect their vulnerability (using habitat drying as a proxy) in the face of climate change. Over the (1984-2011) period, our data showed an increasing trend in the mean wetland total area and number, mainly related to the appearance of wet grassland patches during the wetter years. Wetland cover also showed high inter-annual variability and their area for a given year was positively correlated to precipitation intensities in the three months prior to the image date. Also, round wetlands located in highly glacierized catchments were less prone to drying, while relatively small wetlands with irregularly shaped contours suffered the highest rates of drying over the last three decades. High Andean wetlands can therefore be considered as ecosystem sentinels for climate change, as they seem sensitive to glacier melting. Beyond the specific focus of this study, our work illustrates how satellite-based monitoring of ecosystem sentinels can help filling the lack of information on the ecological consequences of current and changing climate conditions, a common and crucial issue especially in less-developed countries.}, }
@article {pmid28539511, year = {2017}, author = {Hof, C and Khaliq, I and Prinzinger, R and Böhning-Gaese, K and Pfenninger, M}, title = {Global patterns of thermal tolerances and vulnerability of endotherms to climate change remain robust irrespective of varying data suitability criteria.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {284}, number = {1855}, pages = {}, pmid = {28539511}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid28538859, year = {2017}, author = {Cabezas, C and Lachira, A and Franco, L and Vergara, L and Miraval, ML}, title = {[Climate change and heat stroke in children in the north of Peru].}, journal = {Revista peruana de medicina experimental y salud publica}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {145-146}, doi = {10.17843/rpmesp.2017.341.2777}, pmid = {28538859}, issn = {1726-4642}, }
@article {pmid28538704, year = {2017}, author = {Ali, S and Liu, Y and Ishaq, M and Shah, T and Abdullah,  and Ilyas, A and Din, IU}, title = {Climate Change and Its Impact on the Yield of Major Food Crops: Evidence from Pakistan.}, journal = {Foods (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {}, pmid = {28538704}, issn = {2304-8158}, abstract = {Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change, and extreme climatic conditions are threatening food security. This study examines the effects of climate change (e.g., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and the sunshine) on the major crops of Pakistan (e.g., wheat, rice, maize, and sugarcane). The methods of feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) consistent standard error were employed using time series data for the period 1989 to 2015. The results of the study reveal that maximum temperature adversely affects wheat production, while the effect of minimum temperature is positive and significant for all crops. Rainfall effect towards the yield of a selected crop is negative, except for wheat. To cope with and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, there is a need for the development of heat- and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties to ensure food security in the country.}, }
@article {pmid28536591, year = {2017}, author = {Kane, K and Debinski, DM and Anderson, C and Scasta, JD and Engle, DM and Miller, JR}, title = {Using Regional Climate Projections to Guide Grassland Community Restoration in the Face of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {730}, pmid = {28536591}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Grassland loss has been extensive worldwide, endangering the associated biodiversity and human well-being that are both dependent on these ecosystems. Ecologists have developed approaches to restore grassland communities and many have been successful, particularly where soils are rich, precipitation is abundant, and seeds of native plant species can be obtained. However, climate change adds a new filter needed in planning grassland restoration efforts. Potential responses of species to future climate conditions must also be considered in planning for long-term resilience. We demonstrate this methodology using a site-specific model and a maximum entropy approach to predict changes in habitat suitability for 33 grassland plant species in the tallgrass prairie region of the U.S. using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios A1B and A2. The A1B scenario predicts an increase in temperature from 1.4 to 6.4°C, whereas the A2 scenario predicts temperature increases from 2 to 5.4°C and much greater CO2 emissions than the A1B scenario. Both scenarios predict these changes to occur by the year 2100. Model projections for 2040 under the A1B scenario predict that all but three modeled species will lose ~90% of their suitable habitat. Then by 2080, all species except for one will lose ~90% of their suitable habitat. Models run using the A2 scenario predict declines in habitat for just four species by 2040, but models predict that by 2080, habitat suitability will decline for all species. The A2 scenario appears based on our results to be the less severe climate change scenario for our species. Our results demonstrate that many common species, including grasses, forbs, and shrubs, are sensitive to climate change. Thus, grassland restoration alternatives should be evaluated based upon the long-term viability in the context of climate change projections and risk of plant species loss.}, }
@article {pmid28535593, year = {2017}, author = {Soleimani, A and Hosseini, SM and Massah Bavani, AR and Jafari, M and Francaviglia, R}, title = {Simulating soil organic carbon stock as affected by land cover change and climate change, Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {599-600}, number = {}, pages = {1646-1657}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.077}, pmid = {28535593}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Soil organic carbon (SOC) contains a considerable portion of the world's terrestrial carbon stock, and is affected by changes in land cover and climate. SOC modeling is a useful approach to assess the impact of land use, land use change and climate change on carbon (C) sequestration. This study aimed to: (i) test the performance of RothC model using data measured from different land covers in Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran); and (ii) predict changes in SOC under different climate change scenarios that may occur in the future. The following land covers were considered: Quercus castaneifolia (QC), Acer velutinum (AV), Alnus subcordata (AS), Cupressus sempervirens (CS) plantations and a natural forest (NF). For assessment of future climate change projections the Fifth Assessment IPCC report was used. These projections were generated with nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) leading to very low and high greenhouse gases concentration levels (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively), and for four 20year-periods up to 2099 (2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). Simulated values of SOC correlated well with measured data (R[2]=0.64 to 0.91) indicating a good efficiency of the RothC model. Our results showed an overall decrease in SOC stocks by 2099 under all land covers and climate change scenarios, but the extent of the decrease varied with the climate models, the emissions scenarios, time periods and land covers. Acer velutinum plantation was the most sensitive land cover to future climate change (range of decrease 8.34-21.83tCha[-1]). Results suggest that modeling techniques can be effectively applied for evaluating SOC stocks, allowing the identification of current patterns in the soil and the prediction of future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid28533952, year = {2017}, author = {Mattern, T and Meyer, S and Ellenberg, U and Houston, DM and Darby, JT and Young, M and van Heezik, Y and Seddon, PJ}, title = {Quantifying climate change impacts emphasises the importance of managing regional threats in the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {e3272}, pmid = {28533952}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Climate change is a global issue with effects that are difficult to manage at a regional scale. Yet more often than not climate factors are just some of multiple stressors affecting species on a population level. Non-climatic factors-especially those of anthropogenic origins-may play equally important roles with regard to impacts on species and are often more feasible to address. Here we assess the influence of climate change on population trends of the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) over the last 30 years, using a Bayesian model. Sea surface temperature (SST) proved to be the dominating factor influencing survival of both adult birds and fledglings. Increasing SST since the mid-1990s was accompanied by a reduction in survival rates and population decline. The population model showed that 33% of the variation in population numbers could be explained by SST alone, significantly increasing pressure on the penguin population. Consequently, the population becomes less resilient to non-climate related impacts, such as fisheries interactions, habitat degradation and human disturbance. However, the extent of the contribution of these factors to declining population trends is extremely difficult to assess principally due to the absence of quantifiable data, creating a discussion bias towards climate variables, and effectively distracting from non-climate factors that can be managed on a regional scale to ensure the viability of the population.}, }
@article {pmid28531155, year = {2017}, author = {Navi, M and Hansen, A and Nitschke, M and Hanson-Easey, S and Pisaniello, D}, title = {Developing Health-Related Indicators of Climate Change: Australian Stakeholder Perspectives.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {28531155}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Public Health ; South Australia ; }, abstract = {Climate-related health indicators are potentially useful for tracking and predicting the adverse public health effects of climate change, identifying vulnerable populations, and monitoring interventions. However, there is a need to understand stakeholders' perspectives on the identification, development, and utility of such indicators. A qualitative approach was used, comprising semi-structured interviews with key informants and service providers from government and non-government stakeholder organizations in South Australia. Stakeholders saw a need for indicators that could enable the monitoring of health impacts and time trends, vulnerability to climate change, and those which could also be used as communication tools. Four key criteria for utility were identified, namely robust and credible indicators, specificity, data availability, and being able to be spatially represented. The variability of risk factors in different regions, lack of resources, and data and methodological issues were identified as the main barriers to indicator development. This study demonstrates a high level of stakeholder awareness of the health impacts of climate change, and the need for indicators that can inform policy makers regarding interventions.}, }
@article {pmid28527153, year = {2017}, author = {Donnelly, A and Yu, R}, title = {The rise of phenology with climate change: an evaluation of IJB publications.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {61}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {29-50}, pmid = {28527153}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Meteorology ; Periodicals as Topic/*trends ; Plants ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, phenology has become an important tool by which to measure both the impact of climate change on ecosystems and the feedback of ecosystems to the climate system. However, there has been little attempt to date to systematically quantify the increase in the number of scientific publications with a focus on phenology and climate change. In order to partially address this issue, we examined the number of articles (original papers, reviews and short communications) containing the terms 'phenology' and 'climate change' in the title, abstract or keywords, published in the International Journal of Biometeorology in the 60 years since its inception in 1957. We manually inspected all issues prior to 1987 for the search terms and subsequently used the search facility on the Web of Science online database. The overall number of articles published per decade remained relatively constant (255-378) but rose rapidly to 1053 in the most recent decade (2007-2016), accompanied by an increase (41-172) in the number of articles containing the search terms. A number of factors may have contributed to this rise, including the recognition of the value of phenology as an indicator of climate change and the initiation in 2010 of a series of conferences focusing on phenology which subsequently led to two special issues of the journal. The word 'phenology' was in use from the first issue, whereas 'climate change' only emerged in 1987 and peaked in 2014. New technologies such as satellite remote sensing and the internet led to an expansion of and greater access to a growing reservoir of phenological information. The application of phenological data included determining the impact of warming of phenophases, predicting wine quality and the pollen season, demonstrating the potential for mismatch to occur and both reconstructing and forecasting climate. Even though this analysis was limited to one journal, it is likely to be indicative of a similar trend across other scientific publications.}, }
@article {pmid28520770, year = {2017}, author = {Moor, H}, title = {Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {e0177778}, pmid = {28520770}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Evolution, Molecular ; *Genetic Variation ; *Life History Traits ; Magnoliopsida/*genetics ; Models, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species' overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence mechanisms may increase community resilience to future climate change and are useful guides for model development.}, }
@article {pmid28516144, year = {2017}, author = {Mainali, J and Pricope, NG}, title = {Geospatial datasets in support of high-resolution spatial assessment of population vulnerability to climate change in Nepal.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {459-462}, pmid = {28516144}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {We present a geographic information system (GIS) dataset with a nominal spatial resolution of one-kilometer composed of grid polygons originally derived and utilized in a high-resolution climate vulnerability model for Nepal. The different data sets described and shared in this article are processed and tailored to the specific objectives of our research paper entitled "High-resolution Spatial Assessment of Population Vulnerability to Climate Change in Nepal" (Mainali and Pricope, In press) [1]. We share these data recognizing that there is a significant gap in regards to data availability, the spatial patterns of different biophysical and socioeconomic variables, and the overall population vulnerability to climatic variability and disasters in Nepal. Individual variables, as well as the entire set presented in this dataset, can be used to better understand the spatial pattern of different physical, biological, climatic, and vulnerability characteristics in Nepal. The datasets presented in this article are sourced from different national and global databases and have been statistically treated to meet the needs of the article. The data are in GIS-ready ESRI shapefile file format of one-kilometer grid polygon with various fields (columns) for each dataset.}, }
@article {pmid28516031, year = {2016}, author = {Wang, CJ and Wan, JZ and Zhang, ZX and Zhang, GM}, title = {Identifying appropriate protected areas for endangered fern species under climate change.}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {904}, pmid = {28516031}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {The management of protected areas (PAs) is widely used in the conservation of endangered plant species under climate change. However, studies that have identified appropriate PAs for endangered fern species are rare. To address this gap, we must develop a workflow to plan appropriate PAs for endangered fern species that will be further impacted by climate change. Here, we used endangered fern species in China as a case study, and we applied conservation planning software coupled with endangered fern species distribution data and distribution modeling to plan conservation areas with high priority protection needs under climate change. We identified appropriate PAs for endangered fern species under climate change based on the IUCN protected area categories (from Ia to VI) and planned additional PAs for endangered fern species. The high priority regions for protecting the endangered fern species were distributed throughout southern China. With decreasing temperature seasonality, the priority ranking of all endangered fern species is projected to increase in existing PAs. Accordingly, we need to establish conservation areas with low climate vulnerability in existing PAs and expand the conservation areas for endangered fern species in the high priority conservation regions.}, }
@article {pmid28513777, year = {2017}, author = {Miranda, AL and Cordeiro, SM and Reis, JN and Cardoso, LG and Guimarães, AG}, title = {Population dynamics of Siderastrea stellata Verrill, 1868 from Rocas Atoll, RN: implications for predicted climate change impacts at the only South Atlantic atoll.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {89}, number = {2}, pages = {1143-1153}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765201720160449}, pmid = {28513777}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*anatomy &amp; histology/*growth &amp; development ; Atlantic Ocean ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Environmental Monitoring ; Geographic Mapping ; Population Growth ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Coral reefs are one of the most vulnerable ecosystems to ocean warming and acidification, and it is important to determine the role of reef building species in this environment in order to obtain insight into their susceptibility to expected impacts of global changes. Aspects of the life history of a coral population, such as reproduction, growth and size-frequency can contribute to the production of models that are used to estimate impacts and potential recovery of the population, acting as a powerful tool for the conservation and management of those ecosystems. Here, we present the first evidence of Siderastrea stellata planulation, its early growth, population size-frequency distribution and growth rate of adult colonies in Rocas Atoll. Our results, together with the environmental protection policies and the absence of anthropogenic pressures, suggest that S. stellata population may have a good potential in the maintenance and recovery in the atoll. However, our results also indicate an impact on corals' recruitment, probably as a consequence of the positive temperature anomaly that occurred in 2010. Thus, despite the pristine status of Rocas Atoll, the preservation of its coral community seems to be threatened by current global changes, such as more frequent thermal stress events.}, }
@article {pmid28510631, year = {2017}, author = {Sánchez, AM and Alonso-Valiente, P and Albert, MJ and Escudero, A}, title = {How might edaphic specialists in gypsum islands respond to climate change? Reciprocal sowing experiment to infer local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {120}, number = {1}, pages = {135-146}, pmid = {28510631}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Calcium Sulfate ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Germination ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Seedlings/physiology ; Spain ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity are considered key mechanisms for coping with climate warming, especially for plant species that inhabit island-like habitats. In Spain a complete guild of edaphic specialists, most of them threatened, occurs in gypsum outcrops, but how these species will respond to climate change has received little attention.<br><br>METHODS: A reciprocal sowing experiment was performed to determine the extent of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity in five gypsophytes with contrasting distributions along a climate gradient. Germination, seedling growth and survival were recorded during a 4-year period.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Plants responded plastically according to their positions along the regional climate gradient, as well as locally between matched locations. All species exhibited highly plastic responses and stress-tolerant behaviours, especially in terms of seedling survival during summer drought. However, no evidence of local adaptation was detected in any of the locations, where local individuals never performed better than those from other sites. In some sites, both germination and seedling recruitment were higher irrespective of parent plant origin.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The lack of local adaptation to drought displayed at the regeneration stage indicates limited capacity for in situ genetic response to new climate scenarios. Nevertheless, a plastic response along the climatic gradient does suggest a wider species-level capacity to enable these edaphic specialists to cope with increasing aridity over coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid28507153, year = {2017}, author = {Prather, MJ and Holmes, CD}, title = {Overexplaining or underexplaining methane's role in climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {21}, pages = {5324-5326}, pmid = {28507153}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Methane ; }, }
@article {pmid28505889, year = {2017}, author = {Jiang, L and Guli Jiapaer,  and Bao, A and Guo, H and Ndayisaba, F}, title = {Vegetation dynamics and responses to climate change and human activities in Central Asia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {599-600}, number = {}, pages = {967-980}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.012}, pmid = {28505889}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Knowledge of the current changes and dynamics of different types of vegetation in relation to climatic changes and anthropogenic activities is critical for developing adaptation strategies to address the challenges posed by climate change and human activities for ecosystems. Based on a regression analysis and the Hurst exponent index method, this research investigated the spatial and temporal characteristics and relationships between vegetation greenness and climatic factors in Central Asia using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and gridded high-resolution station (land) data for the period 1984-2013. Further analysis distinguished between the effects of climatic change and those of human activities on vegetation dynamics by means of a residual analysis trend method. The results show that vegetation pixels significantly decreased for shrubs and sparse vegetation compared with those for the other vegetation types and that the degradation of sparse vegetation was more serious in the Karakum and Kyzylkum Deserts, the Ustyurt Plateau and the wetland delta of the Large Aral Sea than in other regions. The Hurst exponent results indicated that forests are more sustainable than grasslands, shrubs and sparse vegetation. Precipitation is the main factor affecting vegetation growth in the Kazakhskiy Melkosopochnik. Moreover, temperature is a controlling factor that influences the seasonal variation of vegetation greenness in the mountains and the Aral Sea basin. Drought is the main factor affecting vegetation degradation as a result of both increased temperature and decreased precipitation in the Kyzylkum Desert and the northern Ustyurt Plateau. The residual analysis highlighted that sparse vegetation and the degradation of some shrubs in the southern part of the Karakum Desert, the southern Ustyurt Plateau and the wetland delta of the Large Aral Sea were mainly triggered by human activities: the excessive exploitation of water resources in the upstream areas of the Amu Darya basin and oil and natural gas extraction in the southern part of the Karakum Desert and the southern Ustyurt Plateau. The results also indicated that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, abandoned pastures gave rise to increased vegetation in eastern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and abandoned croplands reverted to grasslands in northern Kazakhstan, leading to a decrease in cropland greenness. Shrubs and sparse vegetation were extremely sensitive to short-term climatic variations, and our results demonstrated that these vegetation types were the most seriously degraded by human activities. Therefore, regional governments should strive to restore vegetation to sustain this fragile arid ecological environment.}, }
@article {pmid28504631, year = {2017}, author = {Furu, P and Tellier, S and Vestergaard, LS}, title = {[Climate change, floods and health intervention].}, journal = {Ugeskrift for laeger}, volume = {179}, number = {20}, pages = {}, pmid = {28504631}, issn = {1603-6824}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; *Disasters ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control ; Floods ; Global Health ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change and variability are considered some of the biggest threats to human health in the 21st century. Extreme weather events such as floods and storms are examples of natural hazards resulting in highest number of disasters and with considerable mortality and morbidity among vulnerable communities. A coordinated, well-planned management of health interventions must be taken for timely action in the response, recovery, prevention and preparedness phases of disasters. Roles and responsibilities of international as well as national organizations and authorities are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid28504255, year = {2017}, author = {Reyna, JL and Chester, MV}, title = {Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {14916}, pmid = {28504255}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change could significantly affect consumer demand for energy in buildings, as changing temperatures may alter heating and cooling loads. Warming climates could also lead to the increased adoption and use of cooling technologies in buildings. We assess residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles, California under multiple climate change projections and investigate the potential for energy efficiency to offset increased demand. We calibrate residential energy use against metered data, accounting for differences in building materials and appliances. Under temperature increases, we find that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand could increase by as much as 41-87% between 2020 and 2060. However, aggressive policies aimed at upgrading heating/cooling systems and appliances could result in electricity use increases as low as 28%, potentially avoiding the installation of new generation capacity. We therefore recommend aggressive energy efficiency, in combination with low-carbon generation sources, to offset projected increases in residential energy demand.}, }
@article {pmid28501612, year = {2017}, author = {Ng, NSR and Wilton, PR and Prawiradilaga, DM and Tay, YC and Indrawan, M and Garg, KM and Rheindt, FE}, title = {The effects of Pleistocene climate change on biotic differentiation in a montane songbird clade from Wallacea.}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {114}, number = {}, pages = {353-366}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2017.05.007}, pmid = {28501612}, issn = {1095-9513}, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Climate Change ; DNA/chemistry/isolation &amp; purification/metabolism ; Genetic Variation ; NADH Dehydrogenase/classification/genetics ; Phylogeny ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Principal Component Analysis ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Songbirds/*classification/genetics ; }, abstract = {The role of Pleistocene Ice Age in tropical diversification is poorly understood, especially in archipelagos, in which glaciation-induced sea level fluctuations may lead to complicated changes in land distribution. To assess how Pleistocene land bridges may have facilitated gene flow in tropical archipelagos, we investigated patterns of diversification in the rarely-collected rusty-bellied fantail Rhipidura teysmanni (Passeriformes: Rhipiduridae) complex from Wallacea using a combination of bioacoustic traits and whole-genome sequencing methods (dd-RADSeq). We report a biogeographic leapfrog pattern in the vocalizations of these birds, and uncover deep genomic divergence among island populations despite the presence of intermittent land connections between some. We demonstrate how rare instances of genetic introgression have affected the evolution of this species complex, and document the presence of double introgressive mitochondrial sweeps, highlighting the dangers of using only mitochondrial DNA in evolutionary research. By applying different tree inference approaches, we demonstrate how concatenation methods can give inaccurate results when investigating divergence in closely-related taxa. Our study highlights high levels of cryptic avian diversity in poorly-explored Wallacea, elucidates complex patterns of Pleistocene climate-mediated diversification in an elusive montane songbird, and suggests that Pleistocene land bridges may have accounted for limited connectivity among montane Wallacean biota.}, }
@article {pmid28499120, year = {2017}, author = {MacGillivray, BH}, title = {Characterising bias in regulatory risk and decision analysis: An analysis of heuristics applied in health technology appraisal, chemicals regulation, and climate change governance.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {105}, number = {}, pages = {20-33}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2017.05.002}, pmid = {28499120}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Bias ; Biomedical Technology ; Climate Change ; Decision Making ; *Decision Support Techniques ; Hazardous Substances ; Heuristics ; Humans ; Risk ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; *Social Control, Formal ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {In many environmental and public health domains, heuristic methods of risk and decision analysis must be relied upon, either because problem structures are ambiguous, reliable data is lacking, or decisions are urgent. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty beyond model and measurement error - uncertainty stemming from relying on inexact inference rules. Here we identify and analyse heuristics used to prioritise risk objects, to discriminate between signal and noise, to weight evidence, to construct models, to extrapolate beyond datasets, and to make policy. Some of these heuristics are based on causal generalisations, yet can misfire when these relationships are presumed rather than tested (e.g. surrogates in clinical trials). Others are conventions designed to confer stability to decision analysis, yet which may introduce serious error when applied ritualistically (e.g. significance testing). Some heuristics can be traced back to formal justifications, but only subject to strong assumptions that are often violated in practical applications. Heuristic decision rules (e.g. feasibility rules) in principle act as surrogates for utility maximisation or distributional concerns, yet in practice may neglect costs and benefits, be based on arbitrary thresholds, and be prone to gaming. We highlight the problem of rule-entrenchment, where analytical choices that are in principle contestable are arbitrarily fixed in practice, masking uncertainty and potentially introducing bias. Strategies for making risk and decision analysis more rigorous include: formalising the assumptions and scope conditions under which heuristics should be applied; testing rather than presuming their underlying empirical or theoretical justifications; using sensitivity analysis, simulations, multiple bias analysis, and deductive systems of inference (e.g. directed acyclic graphs) to characterise rule uncertainty and refine heuristics; adopting "recovery schemes" to correct for known biases; and basing decision rules on clearly articulated values and evidence, rather than convention.}, }
@article {pmid28499041, year = {2017}, author = {Considine, MJ and Siddique, KHM and Foyer, CH}, title = {Nature's pulse power: legumes, food security and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {68}, number = {8}, pages = {1815-1818}, pmid = {28499041}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Fabaceae/*genetics ; Food Supply/*methods ; Humans ; *Plant Breeding ; }, }
@article {pmid28496153, year = {2017}, author = {Eberwein, J and Shen, W and Jenerette, GD}, title = {Michaelis-Menten kinetics of soil respiration feedbacks to nitrogen deposition and climate change in subtropical forests.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {1752}, pmid = {28496153}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Aerobiosis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Feedback ; *Forests ; Glucose/pharmacology ; Kinetics ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Soil/*chemistry ; Temperature ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {China experiences some of the highest rates of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition globally, with further increases projected. Understanding of soil feedbacks to the combined anthropogenic influences of climate change and nitrogen deposition in these systems is critical to improve predictive abilities for future climate scenarios. Here we used a Michaelis-Menten substrate-based kinetics framework to explore how soil CO2 production (Rsoil) responds to changes in temperature and available soil nitrogen (N) by combining field experiments with laboratory manipulations from sites experiencing elevated rates of anthropogenic N deposition but varying in soil N availabiltiy. The temperature sensitivity of Rsoil was strongly influenced by labile C additions. Furthermore, estimation of the temperature response of the Michaelis-Menten parameters supports the use of substrate-based kinetics in modeling efforts. Results from both field and laboratory experiments demonstrated a general decrease in Rsoil with increasing soil available N that was variably dependent on carbon (C) availability. Both the field and the laboratory measurements demonstrated a consistent decrease in the Michaelis-Menten parameter kM with increasing soil available N, indicating an increase in the efficiency of soil C decomposition with increasing N. Furthermore, these results provide evidence of interactions between N deposition and temperature sensitivity, which could influence C storage under combined anthropogenic global change drivers.}, }
@article {pmid28494294, year = {2017}, author = {Shrestha, S and Chapagain, R and Babel, MS}, title = {Quantifying the impact of climate change on crop yield and water footprint of rice in the Nam Oon Irrigation Project, Thailand.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {599-600}, number = {}, pages = {689-699}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.028}, pmid = {28494294}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Thailand ; *Water ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Northeast Thailand makes a significant contribution to fragrant and high-quality rice consumed within Thailand and exported to other countries. The majority of rice is produced in rainfed conditions while irrigation water is supplied to rice growers in the dry season. This paper quantifies the potential impact of climate change on the water footprint of rice production using the DSSAT (CERES-Rice) crop growth model for the Nam Oon Irrigation Project located in Northeast Thailand. Crop phenology data was obtained from field experiments and used to set up and validate the CERES-Rice model. The present and future water footprint of rice, the amount of water evaporated during the growing period, was calculated under current and future climatic condition for the irrigation project area. The outputs of three regional climate models (ACCESS-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM, and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM) for scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were downscaled using quantile mapping method. Simulation results show a considerably high increase in the water footprint of KDML-105 and RD-6 rice varieties ranging from 56.5 to 92.2% and 27.5 to 29.7%. respectively for the future period under RCP 4.5, and 71.4 to 76.5% and 27.9 to 37.6%, respectively under RCP 8.5 relative to the simulated baseline water footprint for the period 1976-2005. Conversely, the ChaiNat-1 variety shows a decrease in projected water footprint of 42.1 to 39.4% under RCP 4.5 and 38.5 to 31.7% under RCP 8.5. The results also indicate a huge increase in the future blue water footprint, which will consequently cause a high increment in the irrigation water requirement in order to meet the plant's evaporation demand. The research outcome highlights the importance of proper adaptation strategies to reduce or maintain acceptable water footprints under future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid28488335, year = {2017}, author = {Salmona, J and Heller, R and Quéméré, E and Chikhi, L}, title = {Climate change and human colonization triggered habitat loss and fragmentation in Madagascar.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {19}, pages = {5203-5222}, doi = {10.1111/mec.14173}, pmid = {28488335}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Genetics, Population ; Humans ; Madagascar ; Models, Genetic ; Population Dynamics ; Strepsirhini/*classification/genetics ; }, abstract = {The relative effect of past climate fluctuations and anthropogenic activities on current biome distribution is subject to increasing attention, notably in biodiversity hot spots. In Madagascar, where humans arrived in the last ~4 to 5,000 years, the exact causes of the demise of large vertebrates that cohabited with humans are yet unclear. The prevailing narrative holds that Madagascar was covered with forest before human arrival and that the expansion of grasslands was the result of human-driven deforestation. However, recent studies have shown that vegetation and fauna structure substantially fluctuated during the Holocene. Here, we study the Holocene history of habitat fragmentation in the north of Madagascar using a population genetics approach. To do so, we infer the demographic history of two northern Madagascar neighbouring, congeneric and critically endangered forest dwelling lemur species-Propithecus tattersalli and Propithecus perrieri-using population genetic analyses. Our results highlight the necessity to consider population structure and changes in connectivity in demographic history inferences. We show that both species underwent demographic fluctuations which most likely occurred after the mid-Holocene transition. While mid-Holocene climate change probably triggered major demographic changes in the two lemur species range and connectivity, human settlements that expanded over the last four millennia in northern Madagascar likely played a role in the loss and fragmentation of the forest cover.}, }
@article {pmid28487718, year = {2017}, author = {Bussotti, F and Pollastrini, M}, title = {Observing Climate Change Impacts on European Forests: What Works and What Does Not in Ongoing Long-Term Monitoring Networks.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {629}, pmid = {28487718}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid28487508, year = {2017}, author = {Wang, Y and Liu, Y and Liu, R and Zhang, A and Yang, S and Liu, H and Zhou, Y and Yang, Z}, title = {Biochar amendment reduces paddy soil nitrogen leaching but increases net global warming potential in Ningxia irrigation, China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {1592}, pmid = {28487508}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The efficacy of biochar as an environmentally friendly agent for non-point source and climate change mitigation remains uncertain. Our goal was to test the impact of biochar amendment on paddy rice nitrogen (N) uptake, soil N leaching, and soil CH4 and N2O fluxes in northwest China. Biochar was applied at four rates (0, 4.5, 9 and13.5 t ha[-1] yr[-1]). Biochar amendment significantly increased rice N uptake, soil total N concentration and the abundance of soil ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), but it significantly reduced the soil NO3[-]-N concentration and soil bulk density. Biochar significantly reduced NO3[-]-N and NH4[+]-N leaching. The C2 and C3 treatments significantly increased the soil CH4 flux and reduced the soil N2O flux, leading to significantly increased net global warming potential (GWP). Soil NO3[-]-N rather than NH4[+]-N was the key integrator of the soil CH4 and N2O fluxes. Our results indicate that a shift in abundance of the AOA community and increased rice N uptake are closely linked to the reduced soil NO3[-]-N concentration under biochar amendment. Furthermore, soil NO3[-]-N availability plays an important role in regulating soil inorganic N leaching and net GWP in rice paddies in northwest China.}, }
@article {pmid28486185, year = {2017}, author = {Yadav, IC and Linthoingambi Devi, N and Li, J and Syed, JH and Zhang, G and Watanabe, H}, title = {Biomass burning in Indo-China peninsula and its impacts on regional air quality and global climate change-a review.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {227}, number = {}, pages = {414-427}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2017.04.085}, pmid = {28486185}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Aerosols/analysis ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Asia ; Biomass ; China ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fires/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Gases/analysis ; Humans ; India ; Particulate Matter/*analysis ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {Although, many biomass burning (BB) emissions products (particulate matter and trace gases) are believed to be trans-boundary pollutants that originates from India and China (the two most populous countries in Asia), the information about BB emission and related contents is limited for Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) region. This motivated us to review this region pertaining to BB emission. The main objective of the review is to document the current status of BB emission in ICP region. In order to highlight the impact of BB on regional air quality and global climate change, the role of BB emission in ICP region is also discussed. Based on the available literature and modeling simulations studies, it is evidenced that ICP is one of the hotspot regional source for aerosols in terms of BB emissions. In addition, regional emissions through BB have significant implications for regional air quality especially in the neighboring countries such as China, Taiwan and India. Our assessment highlight that there is still a general lack of reliable data and research studies addressing BB related issues in context of environmental and human health. There is therefore a critical need to improve the current knowledge base, which should build upon the research experience and further research into these issues is considered vital to help inform future policies/control strategies.}, }
@article {pmid28484838, year = {2017}, author = {Juknys, R and Velička, R and Kanapickas, A and Kriaučiūnienė, Z and Masilionytė, L and Vagusevičienė, I and Pupalienė, R and Klepeckas, M and Sujetovienė, G}, title = {Projecting the impact of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {61}, number = {10}, pages = {1765-1775}, pmid = {28484838}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Lithuania ; Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate warming and a shift in the timing of phenological phases, which lead to changes in the duration of the vegetation period may have an essential impact on the productivity of winter crops. The main purpose of this study is to examine climate change-related long-term (1961-2015) changes in the duration of both initial (pre-winter) and main (post-winter) winter wheat vegetation seasons and to present the projection of future phenological changes until the end of this century. Delay and shortening of pre-winter vegetation period, as well as the advancement and slight extension of the post-winter vegetation period, resulted in the reduction of whole winter wheat vegetation period by more than 1 week over the investigated 55 years. Projected changes in the timing of phenological phases which define limits of a main vegetation period differ essentially from the observed period. According to pessimistic (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) scenario, the advancement of winter wheat maturity phase by almost 30 days and the shortening of post-winter vegetation season by 15 days are foreseen for a far (2071-2100) projection. An increase in the available chilling amount is specific not only to the investigated historical period (1960-2015) but also to the projected period according to the climate change scenarios of climate warming for all three projection periods. Consequently, the projected climate warming does not pose a threat of plant vernalization shortage in the investigated geographical latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid28483874, year = {2017}, author = {Palmer, G and Platts, PJ and Brereton, T and Chapman, JW and Dytham, C and Fox, R and Pearce-Higgins, JW and Roy, DB and Hill, JK and Thomas, CD}, title = {Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {372}, number = {1723}, pages = {}, pmid = {28483874}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; England ; Lepidoptera/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.}, }
@article {pmid28482888, year = {2017}, author = {Fones, HN and Gurr, SJ}, title = {NOXious gases and the unpredictability of emerging plant pathogens under climate change.}, journal = {BMC biology}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {36}, pmid = {28482888}, issn = {1741-7007}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*metabolism ; Gases/*adverse effects ; Nitrogen Oxides/*adverse effects ; *Plant Diseases/etiology ; }, abstract = {Emerging pathogens of crops threaten food security and are increasingly problematic due to intensive agriculture and high volumes of trade and transport in plants and plant products. The ability to predict pathogen risk to agricultural regions would therefore be valuable. However, predictions are complicated by multi-faceted relationships between crops, their pathogens, and climate change. Climate change is related to industrialization, which has brought not only a rise in greenhouse gas emissions but also an increase in other atmospheric pollutants. Here, we consider the implications of rising levels of reactive nitrogen gases and their manifold interactions with crops and crop diseases.}, }
@article {pmid28482734, year = {2017}, author = {Diallo, T and Cantoreggi, N and Simos, J and Christie, DPTH}, title = {Is HIA the most effective tool to assess the impact on health of climate change mitigation policies at the local level? A case study in Geneva, Switzerland.}, journal = {Global health promotion}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {5-15}, doi = {10.1177/1757975916686920}, pmid = {28482734}, issn = {1757-9767}, mesh = {City Planning ; Climate Change ; Decision Making ; Environment ; Greenhouse Effect/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Health Impact Assessment/*methods ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Switzerland ; }, abstract = {This study aims to understand how the health dimension is integrated into four impact assessment tools used in Geneva, Switzerland: environmental impact assessment (EIA), strategic environmental assessment (SEA), sustainability assessment (SA) and health impact assessment (HIA). We have chosen as a case study greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction policies chosen by the city of Geneva. The methodological approach consists in analysing EIA, SEA, SA and HIA conducted on three projects in three topic areas: urban planning, heating and transportation. These projects are: a complex urbanisation plan in an urban neighbourhood in Geneva (the Gare des Eaux-Vives project), a sustainable transportation plan for a central district in Geneva (the St-Gervais transportation project) and a strategy to encourage the City's employees to use sustainable transport for local business travel. The results show some shortcomings in the consideration of health in SEA, EIA and SA. This work highlights a narrow vision of health in SEA and EIA, limiting itself to a review of the effects of projects on the determinants of the physical environment as required by the legislation relating to these tools. EIA does not require the integration of the health dimension. As for SA, our research found that health is treated much more superficially than in HIA and primarily through the analysis of 'health and safety' criteria. It appears from this work that HIA is the tool which provides the most elaborate assessment, compared to SA, SEA or EIA, of the consequences for health of the GHG reduction policies chosen by the local decision-makers of a city. However, our study suggests that the HIA community should identify the situations in which HIA should be carried out and in which cases it is better to include health issues within an integrated analysis.}, }
@article {pmid28481897, year = {2017}, author = {Jaramillo, E and Dugan, JE and Hubbard, DM and Contreras, H and Duarte, C and Acuña, E and Schoeman, DS}, title = {Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {e0177116}, pmid = {28481897}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; *Crustacea ; }, abstract = {Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal ecosystem, and for one species, across hemispheres in this space-for-time substitution, suggests predictions of ecosystem responses to thermal effects of climate change may potentially be generalised, with important implications for coastal conservation.}, }
@article {pmid28472189, year = {2017}, author = {Riley, ME and Griffen, BD}, title = {Habitat-specific differences alter traditional biogeographic patterns of life history in a climate-change induced range expansion.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {e0176263}, pmid = {28472189}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Crustacea/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; *Geography ; }, abstract = {Range shifts and expansions resulting from global climate change have the potential to create novel communities with unique plant-animal interactions. Organisms expanding their range into novel biotic and abiotic environments may encounter selection pressures that alter traditional biogeographic patterns of life history traits. Here, we used field surveys to examine latitudinal patterns of life history traits in a broadly distributed ectotherm (mangrove tree crab Aratus pisonii) that has recently experienced a climate change-induced range expansion into a novel habitat type. Additionally, we conducted laboratory and field experiments to investigate characteristics associated with these life history traits (e.g. fecundity, offspring quality, and potential selection pressures). We compared these characteristics in native mangrove habitats in which the species has historically dwelled and novel salt marsh habitats into which the species has recently expanded its range. Consistent with traditional biogeographic concepts (i.e. Bergmann's clines), size at maturity and mean body size of reproductive females increased with latitude within the native habitat. However, they decreased significantly in novel habitats at the highest latitudes of the species' range, which was consistent with habitat-specific differences in both biotic (predation) and abiotic (temperature) selection pressures. Although initial maternal investment (egg volume and weight) did not differ between habitats, fecundity was lower in novel habitats as a result of differences in size at reproduction. Offspring quality, as measured by larval starvation resistance, was likewise diminished in novel habitats relative to native habitats. These differences in offspring quality may have enduring consequences for species success and persistence in novel habitats. Life history characteristics such as those investigated here are fundamental organismal traits; consequently, understanding the potential impacts of climate change responses on latitudinal patterns of these traits is key to understanding climate change impacts on natural systems.}, }
@article {pmid28470360, year = {2017}, author = {Dasgupta, S and Sobhan, I and Wheeler, D}, title = {The impact of climate change and aquatic salinization on mangrove species in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {46}, number = {6}, pages = {680-694}, pmid = {28470360}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Humans ; *Rhizophoraceae ; Salinity ; }, abstract = {This paper investigates the possible impacts of climate change on aquatic salinity and mangrove species in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. The impact analysis combines the salinity tolerance ranges of predominant mangrove species with aquatic salinity measures in 27 scenarios of climate change by 2050. The estimates indicate significant overall losses for Heritiera fomes; substantial gains for Excoecaria agallocha; modest changes for Avicennia alba, A. marina, A. officinalis, Ceriops decandra, and Sonneratia apetala; and mixed results for species combinations. Changes in mangrove stocks are likely to change the prospects for forest-based livelihoods. The implications for neighboring communities are assessed by computing changes in high-value mangrove species for the five sub-districts in the Sundarbans. The results of the impact analysis indicate highly varied patterns of gain and loss across the five sub-districts. Overall, however, the results suggest that salinity-induced mangrove migration will have a strongly regressive impact on the value of timber stocks because of the loss of highest value timber species, Heritiera fomes. In addition, the augmented potential for honey production will likely increase conflicts between humans and wildlife in the region.}, }
@article {pmid28470215, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Increased scrutiny of climate-change models should be welcomed.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {545}, number = {7652}, pages = {6}, doi = {10.1038/545006a}, pmid = {28470215}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Models, Biological ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, }
@article {pmid28470193, year = {2017}, author = {Medhaug, I and Stolpe, MB and Fischer, EM and Knutti, R}, title = {Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {545}, number = {7652}, pages = {41-47}, pmid = {28470193}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/analysis/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Datasets as Topic ; *Dissent and Disputes ; Earth, Planet ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Policy ; Global Warming/*history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Hot Temperature ; Human Activities/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Models, Theoretical ; Public Opinion ; Reproducibility of Results ; Seawater/analysis/chemistry ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.}, }
@article {pmid28469171, year = {2017}, author = {Leng, G and Huang, M}, title = {Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {1463}, pmid = {28469171}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Climate Change/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crops, Agricultural/economics/*physiology ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; *Models, Statistical ; Rain ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Temperature ; United States ; Zea mays/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40% by 2050 s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. This has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid28469028, year = {2017}, author = {Nourani, E and Yamaguchi, NM and Higuchi, H}, title = {Climate change alters the optimal wind-dependent flight routes of an avian migrant.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {284}, number = {1854}, pages = {}, pmid = {28469028}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Falconiformes/*physiology ; Flight, Animal ; *Wind ; }, abstract = {Migratory birds can be adversely affected by climate change as they encounter its geographically uneven impacts in various stages of their life cycle. While a wealth of research is devoted to the impacts of climate change on distribution range and phenology of migratory birds, the indirect effects of climate change on optimal migratory routes and flyways, through changes in air movements, are poorly understood. Here, we predict the influence of climate change on the migratory route of a long-distant migrant using an ensemble of correlative modelling approaches, and present and future atmospheric data obtained from a regional climate model. We show that changes in wind conditions by mid-century will result in a slight shift and reduction in the suitable areas for migration of the study species, the Oriental honey-buzzard, over a critical section of its autumn journey, followed by a complete loss of this section of the traditional route by late century. Our results highlight the need for investigating the consequences of climate change-induced disturbance in wind support for long-distance migratory birds, particularly species that depend on the wind to cross ecological barriers, and those that will be exposed to longer journeys due to future range shifts.}, }
@article {pmid28467840, year = {2017}, author = {Frutos, OD and Cortes, I and Cantera, S and Arnaiz, E and Lebrero, R and Muñoz, R}, title = {Nitrous Oxide Abatement Coupled with Biopolymer Production As a Model GHG Biorefinery for Cost-Effective Climate Change Mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {51}, number = {11}, pages = {6319-6325}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.7b00643}, pmid = {28467840}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Biopolymers ; Bioreactors ; *Climate Change ; In Situ Hybridization, Fluorescence ; *Nitrous Oxide ; Pentanoic Acids ; }, abstract = {N2O represents ∼6% of the global greenhouse gas emission inventory and the most important O3-depleting substance emitted in this 21st century. Despite its environmental relevance, little attention has been given to cost-effective and environmentally friendly N2O abatement methods. Here we examined, the potential of a bubble column (BCR) and an internal loop airlift (ALR) bioreactors of 2.3 L for the abatement of N2O from a nitric acid plant emission. The process was based on the biological reduction of N2O by Paracoccus denitrificans using methanol as a carbon/electron source. Two nitrogen limiting strategies were also tested for the coproduction of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV) coupled with N2O reduction. High N2O removal efficiencies (REs) (≈87%) together with a low PHBV cell accumulation were observed in both bioreactors in excess of nitrogen. However, PHBV contents of 38-64% were recorded under N limiting conditions along with N2O-REs of ≈57% and ≈84% in the ALR and BCR, respectively. Fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses showed that P. denitrificans was dominant (>50%) after 6 months of experimentation. The successful abatement of N2O concomitant with PHBV accumulation confirmed the potential of integrating biorefinery concepts into biological gas treatment for a cost-effective GHG mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid28465693, year = {2017}, author = {Quintão, AF and Brito, I and Oliveira, F and Madureira, AP and Confalonieri, U}, title = {Social, Environmental, and Health Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Case of the Municipalities of Minas Gerais, Brazil.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2017}, number = {}, pages = {2821343}, pmid = {28465693}, issn = {1687-9813}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; *Environmental Health ; Health Status ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Social Environment ; }, abstract = {Vulnerability to climate change is a complex and dynamic phenomenon involving both social and physical/environmental aspects. It is presented as a method for the quantification of the vulnerability of all municipalities of Minas Gerais, a state in southeastern Brazil. It is based on the aggregation of different kinds of environmental, climatic, social, institutional, and epidemiological variables, to form a composite index. This was named "Index of Human Vulnerability" and was calculated using a software (SisVuClima®) specifically developed for this purpose. Social, environmental, and health data were combined with the climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, downscaled from ETA-HadGEM2-ES for each municipality. The Index of Human Vulnerability associated with the RCP 8.5 has shown a higher vulnerability for municipalities in the southern and eastern parts of the state of Minas Gerais.}, }
@article {pmid28465575, year = {2017}, author = {García Molinos, J and Burrows, MT and Poloczanska, ES}, title = {Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {1332}, pmid = {28465575}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.}, }
@article {pmid28464493, year = {2017}, author = {Meynard, CN and Gay, PE and Lecoq, M and Foucart, A and Piou, C and Chapuis, MP}, title = {Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies' niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {11}, pages = {4739-4749}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13739}, pmid = {28464493}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Africa ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Asia ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Grasshoppers/classification/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Risk ; }, abstract = {The desert locust is an agricultural pest that is able to switch from a harmless solitarious stage, during recession periods, to swarms of gregarious individuals that disperse long distances and affect areas from western Africa to India during outbreak periods. Large outbreaks have been recorded through centuries, and the Food and Agriculture Organization keeps a long-term, large-scale monitoring survey database in the area. However, there is also a much less known subspecies that occupies a limited area in Southern Africa. We used large-scale climatic and occurrence data of the solitarious phase of each subspecies during recession periods to understand whether both subspecies climatic niches differ from each other, what is the current potential geographical distribution of each subspecies, and how climate change is likely to shift their potential distribution with respect to current conditions. We evaluated whether subspecies are significantly specialized along available climate gradients by using null models of background climatic differences within and between southern and northern ranges and applying niche similarity and niche equivalency tests. The results point to climatic niche conservatism between the two clades. We complemented this analysis with species distribution modeling to characterize current solitarious distributions and forecast potential recession range shifts under two extreme climate change scenarios at the 2050 and 2090 time horizon. Projections suggest that, at a global scale, the northern clade could contract its solitarious recession range, while the southern clade is likely to expand its recession range. However, local expansions were also predicted in the northern clade, in particular in southern and northern margins of the current geographical distribution. In conclusion, monitoring and management practices should remain in place in northern Africa, while in Southern Africa the potential for the subspecies to pose a threat in the future should be investigated more closely.}, }
@article {pmid28464113, year = {2017}, author = {Sae-Lim, P and Kause, A and Mulder, HA and Olesen, I}, title = {BREEDING AND GENETICS SYMPOSIUM: Climate change and selective breeding in aquaculture.}, journal = {Journal of animal science}, volume = {95}, number = {4}, pages = {1801-1812}, doi = {10.2527/jas.2016.1066}, pmid = {28464113}, issn = {1525-3163}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture ; Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/*genetics/physiology ; Food Supply ; *Selective Breeding ; }, abstract = {Aquaculture is the fastest growing food production sector and it contributes significantly to global food security. Based on Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, aquaculture production must increase significantly to meet the future global demand for aquatic foods in 2050. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and FAO, climate change may result in global warming, sea level rise, changes of ocean productivity, freshwater shortage, and more frequent extreme climate events. Consequently, climate change may affect aquaculture to various extents depending on climatic zones, geographical areas, rearing systems, and species farmed. There are 2 major challenges for aquaculture caused by climate change. First, the current fish, adapted to the prevailing environmental conditions, may be suboptimal under future conditions. Fish species are often poikilothermic and, therefore, may be particularly vulnerable to temperature changes. This will make low sensitivity to temperature more important for fish than for livestock and other terrestrial species. Second, climate change may facilitate outbreaks of existing and new pathogens or parasites. To cope with the challenges above, 3 major adaptive strategies are identified. First, general 'robustness' will become a key trait in aquaculture, whereby fish will be less vulnerable to current and new diseases while at the same time thriving in a wider range of temperatures. Second, aquaculture activities, such as input power, transport, and feed production contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Selection for feed efficiency as well as defining a breeding goal that minimizes greenhouse gas emissions will reduce impacts of aquaculture on climate change. Finally, the limited adoption of breeding programs in aquaculture is a major concern. This implies inefficient use of resources for feed, water, and land. Consequently, the carbon footprint per kg fish produced is greater than when fish from breeding programs would be more heavily used. Aquaculture should use genetically improved and robust organisms not suffering from inbreeding depression. This will require using fish from well-managed selective breeding programs with proper inbreeding control and breeding goals. Policymakers and breeding organizations should provide incentives to boost selective breeding programs in aquaculture for more robust fish tolerating climatic change.}, }
@article {pmid28463773, year = {2017}, author = {Zamasiya, B and Nyikahadzoi, K and Mukamuri, BB}, title = {Factors influencing smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones: A case study of Hwedza District in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {198}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {233-239}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.04.073}, pmid = {28463773}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Farmers ; Humans ; Intention ; Zimbabwe ; }, abstract = {This paper examines factors influencing behavioural change among smallholder farmers towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones of Africa, specifically, Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly-selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study used an ordered logit model to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that the gender of the household head, access to extension services on crop and livestock production, access to climate information, membership to social groups and experiencing a drought have a positive influence on farmers' attitude towards adaptation to climate change and variability. The study concluded that although the majority of smallholder farmers perceive that the climate is changing, they continue to habour negative attitudes towards prescribed climate change adaptation techniques. This study recommends more education on climate change, as well as adaptation strategies for both agricultural extension workers and farmers. This can be complemented by disseminating timely climate information through extension officers and farmers' groups.}, }
@article {pmid28461439, year = {2017}, author = {Smith, J}, title = {Demanding stories: television coverage of sustainability, climate change and material demand.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {2095}, pages = {}, pmid = {28461439}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {This paper explores the past, present and future role of broadcasting, above all via the medium of television, in shaping how societies talk, think about and act on climate change and sustainability issues. The paper explores these broad themes via a focus on the important but relatively neglected issue of material demand and opportunities for its reduction. It takes the outputs and decision-making of one of the world's most influential broadcasters, the BBC, as its primary focus. The paper considers these themes in terms of stories, touching on some of the broader societal frames of understanding into which they can be grouped. Media decision-makers and producers from a range of genres frequently return to the centrality of 'story' in the development, commissioning and production of an idea. With reference to specific examples of programming, and drawing on interviews with media practitioners, the paper considers the challenges of generating broadcast stories that can inspire engagement in issues around climate change, and specifically material demand. The concluding section proposes actions and approaches that might help to establish material demand reduction as a prominent way of thinking about climate change and environmental issues more widely.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.}, }
@article {pmid28461429, year = {2017}, author = {Davison, A}, title = {'Not to escape the world but to join it': responding to climate change with imagination not fantasy.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {375}, number = {2095}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2016.0365}, pmid = {28461429}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Creativity ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Environmental Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; *Fantasy ; *Imagination ; Problem Solving ; Public Policy/trends ; }, abstract = {The work of climate scientists, demonstrating human-driven climate change, has not provoked the widespread and far-reaching changes to human behaviour necessary to avert potentially catastrophic environmental trajectories. This work has not yet sufficiently been able to engage the individual and collective imagination. Drawing on Samuel Taylor Coleridge (1772-1834) and Iris Murdoch (1919-1999), we can distinguish two modes under which the human imagination can operate: in Murdoch's terms, these are 'imagination' and 'fantasy'. To relate imaginatively is to be willing to allow one's internal image of the world to be changed by what one encounters, while an outlook characterized by fantasy relates to the world as one would wish it were, rather than how it actually is. Fantasy, therefore, operates not only among those who deny climate change, but also among those who entertain the promise of a technological solution too optimistically. An imaginative outlook, by contrast, evaluates actions and patterns of behaviour in terms of their relation to a wider whole. This is necessary for providing the degree of agency required to step out of a cycle of ever accelerating production, which is explored in terms of an analogy to a discussion of revenge and forgiveness from Hannah Arendt (1906-1975). Ultimately, the need to engage the imagination is an opportunity as well as a challenge. To live imaginatively is fulfilling, and that is precisely what the challenges of climate change require.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.}, }
@article {pmid28460237, year = {2017}, author = {Ochoa-Hueso, R and Munzi, S and Alonso, R and Arróniz-Crespo, M and Avila, A and Bermejo, V and Bobbink, R and Branquinho, C and Concostrina-Zubiri, L and Cruz, C and Cruz de Carvalho, R and De Marco, A and Dias, T and Elustondo, D and Elvira, S and Estébanez, B and Fusaro, L and Gerosa, G and Izquieta-Rojano, S and Lo Cascio, M and Marzuoli, R and Matos, P and Mereu, S and Merino, J and Morillas, L and Nunes, A and Paoletti, E and Paoli, L and Pinho, P and Rogers, IB and Santos, A and Sicard, P and Stevens, CJ and Theobald, MR}, title = {Ecological impacts of atmospheric pollution and interactions with climate change in terrestrial ecosystems of the Mediterranean Basin: Current research and future directions.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {227}, number = {}, pages = {194-206}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2017.04.062}, pmid = {28460237}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Research ; }, abstract = {Mediterranean Basin ecosystems, their unique biodiversity, and the key services they provide are currently at risk due to air pollution and climate change, yet only a limited number of isolated and geographically-restricted studies have addressed this topic, often with contrasting results. Particularities of air pollution in this region include high O3 levels due to high air temperatures and solar radiation, the stability of air masses, and dominance of dry over wet nitrogen deposition. Moreover, the unique abiotic and biotic factors (e.g., climate, vegetation type, relevance of Saharan dust inputs) modulating the response of Mediterranean ecosystems at various spatiotemporal scales make it difficult to understand, and thus predict, the consequences of human activities that cause air pollution in the Mediterranean Basin. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement coordinated research and experimental platforms along with wider environmental monitoring networks in the region. In particular, a robust deposition monitoring network in conjunction with modelling estimates is crucial, possibly including a set of common biomonitors (ideally cryptogams, an important component of the Mediterranean vegetation), to help refine pollutant deposition maps. Additionally, increased attention must be paid to functional diversity measures in future air pollution and climate change studies to establish the necessary link between biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean ecosystems. Through a coordinated effort, the Mediterranean scientific community can fill the above-mentioned gaps and reach a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying the combined effects of air pollution and climate change in the Mediterranean Basin.}, }
@article {pmid28458445, year = {2017}, author = {Henderson, JV and Storeygard, A and Deichmann, U}, title = {Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?.}, journal = {Journal of development economics}, volume = {124}, number = {}, pages = {60-82}, pmid = {28458445}, issn = {0304-3878}, support = {T32 HD007338/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {This paper documents strong but differentiated links between climate and urbanization in large panels of districts and cities in Sub-Saharan Africa, which has dried substantially in the past fifty years. The key dimension of heterogeneity is whether cities are likely to have manufacturing for export outside their regions, as opposed to being exclusively market towns providing local services to agricultural hinterlands. In regions where cities are likely to be manufacturing centers (25% of our sample), drier conditions increase urbanization and total urban incomes. There, urban migration provides an "escape" from negative agricultural moisture shocks. However, in the remaining market towns (75% of our sample), cities just service agriculture. Reduced farm incomes from negative shocks reduce demand for urban services and derived demand for urban labor. There, drying has little impact on urbanization or total urban incomes. Lack of structural transformation in Africa inhibits a better response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28458194, year = {2017}, author = {Di Matteo, L and Dragoni, W and Maccari, D and Piacentini, SM}, title = {Climate change, water supply and environmental problems of headwaters: The paradigmatic case of the Tiber, Savio and Marecchia rivers (Central Italy).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {598}, number = {}, pages = {733-748}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.04.153}, pmid = {28458194}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {River headwaters, in spite of their importance for habitats and water supply, are often inadequately studied and managed. This study discusses the effects of the hydrogeological system and climatic variations on the environment of Monte Fumaiolo (Central Italy), which corresponds to the headwaters of the rivers Tiber, Savio and Marecchia. The area is a key system for supplying drinking-water and is also the habitat of amphibians such as the endemic and endangered Bombina pachypus and other amphibian species. Ongoing climate change is affecting the area: during the last 30years, five prolonged droughts have occurred, against only one in the preceding 40years. On all time-scales, there is a decrease in rainfall during the recharge period and an increase of temperature: these trends correspond to a decrease in water yield of about 12% over the last 30years. The hydrologic system of the study area is composed of one basic aquifer and a few perched aquifers feeding springs. Their resilience to drought depends on their geological setting: study of some depletion curves helped us to understand the geological setting of the various types, and two promising sites for the habitat preservation of amphibians were identified. Study results indicate new approaches to the study and management of the environment and its water supply, which could be useful in similar areas.}, }
@article {pmid28456463, year = {2017}, author = {Petrovskii, S and Sekerci, Y and Venturino, E}, title = {Regime shifts and ecological catastrophes in a model of plankton-oxygen dynamics under the climate change.}, journal = {Journal of theoretical biology}, volume = {424}, number = {}, pages = {91-109}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.04.018}, pmid = {28456463}, issn = {1095-8541}, mesh = {*Extinction, Biological ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; *Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen/*metabolism ; Plankton/*physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {It is estimated that more than a half of the total atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. Any significant decrease in the net oxygen production by phytoplankton is therefore likely to result in the depletion of atmospheric oxygen and in a global mass mortality of animals and humans. In its turn, the rate of oxygen production is known to depend on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. We address this problem theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that, when the temperature rises sufficiently high, a regime shift happens: the sustainable oxygen production becomes impossible and the system's dynamics leads to fast oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. We also consider a scenario when, after a certain period of increase, the temperature is set on a new higher yet apparently safe value, i.e. before the oxygen depletion disaster happens. We show that in this case the system dynamics may exhibit a long-term quasi-sustainable dynamics that can still result in an ecological disaster (oxygen depletion and mass extinctions) but only after a considerable period of time. Finally, we discuss the early warning signals of the approaching regime shift resulting in the disaster.}, }
@article {pmid28449200, year = {2017}, author = {MacLean, SA and Beissinger, SR}, title = {Species' traits as predictors of range shifts under contemporary climate change: A review and meta-analysis.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {10}, pages = {4094-4105}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13736}, pmid = {28449200}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {A growing body of literature seeks to explain variation in range shifts using species' ecological and life-history traits, with expectations that shifts should be greater in species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive potential, and ecological generalization. Despite strong theoretical support for species' traits as predictors of range shifts, empirical evidence from contemporary range shift studies remains limited in extent and consensus. We conducted the first comprehensive review of species' traits as predictors of range shifts, collecting results from 51 studies across multiple taxa encompassing over 11,000 species' responses for 54 assemblages of taxonomically related species occurring together in space. We used studies of assemblages that directly compared geographic distributions sampled in the 20th century prior to climate change with resurveys of distributions after contemporary climate change and then tested whether species traits accounted for heterogeneity in range shifts. We performed a formal meta-analysis on study-level effects of body size, fecundity, diet breadth, habitat breadth, and historic range limit as predictors of range shifts for a subset of 21 studies of 26 assemblages with sufficient data. Range shifts were consistent with predictions based on habitat breadth and historic range limit. However, body size, fecundity, and diet breadth showed no significant effect on range shifts across studies, and multiple studies reported significant relationships that contradicted predictions. Current understanding of species' traits as predictors of range shifts is limited, and standardized study is needed for traits to be valid indicators of vulnerability in assessments of climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid28448460, year = {2017}, author = {Quam, VGM and Rocklöv, J and Quam, MBM and Lucas, RAI}, title = {Assessing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Health Co-Benefits: A Structured Review of Lifestyle-Related Climate Change Mitigation Strategies.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {28448460}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Diet/methods ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation/*methods ; Gases/analysis ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Life Style ; Transportation/methods ; }, abstract = {This is the first structured review to identify and summarize research on lifestyle choices that improve health and have the greatest potential to mitigate climate change. Two literature searches were conducted on: (1) active transport health co-benefits, and (2) dietary health co-benefits. Articles needed to quantify both greenhouse gas emissions and health or nutrition outcomes resulting from active transport or diet changes. A data extraction tool (PRISMA) was created for article selection and evaluation. A rubric was devised to assess the biases, limitations and uncertainties of included articles. For active transport 790 articles were retrieved, nine meeting the inclusion criteria. For diet 2524 articles were retrieved, 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. A total of 31 articles were reviewed and assessed using the rubric, as one article met the inclusion criteria for both active transport and diet co-benefits. Methods used to estimate the effect of diet or active transport modification vary greatly precluding meta-analysis. The scale of impact on health and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) outcomes depends predominately on the aggressiveness of the diet or active transport scenario modelled, versus the modelling technique. Effective mitigation policies, infrastructure that supports active transport and low GHGE food delivery, plus community engagement are integral in achieving optimal health and GHGE outcomes. Variation in culture, nutritional and health status, plus geographic density will determine which mitigation scenario(s) best suit individual communities.}, }
@article {pmid28447137, year = {2017}, author = {Bunz, M and Mücke, HG}, title = {[Climate change - physical and mental consequences].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {60}, number = {6}, pages = {632-639}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-017-2548-3}, pmid = {28447137}, issn = {1437-1588}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/*epidemiology/psychology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Comorbidity ; Environmental Illness ; Environmental Monitoring/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Evidence-Based Medicine ; Humans ; Incidence ; Mental Disorders/*epidemiology/psychology ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*epidemiology/psychology ; Risk Factors ; Somatoform Disorders/*epidemiology/psychology ; }, abstract = {Climate change has already had a large influence on the human environmental system and directly or indirectly affects physical and mental health. Triggered by extreme meteorological conditions, for example, storms, floods, earth slides and heat periods, the direct consequences range from illnesses to serious accidents with injuries, or in extreme cases fatalities. Indirectly, a changed environment due to climate change affects, amongst other things, the cardiovascular system and respiratory tract, and can also cause allergies and infectious diseases. In addition, increasing confrontation with environmental impacts may cause negative psychological effects such as posttraumatic stress disorders and anxiety, but also aggression, distress and depressive symptoms. The extent and severity of the health consequences depend on individual pre-disposition, resilience, behaviour and adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid28444505, year = {2018}, author = {Gao, C and Kuklane, K and Östergren, PO and Kjellstrom, T}, title = {Occupational heat stress assessment and protective strategies in the context of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {3}, pages = {359-371}, pmid = {28444505}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {668786//The European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (HEAT-SHIELD)/ ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Heat Stress Disorders/*prevention &amp; control ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Occupational Diseases/*prevention &amp; control ; Occupational Exposure/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Global warming will unquestionably increase the impact of heat on individuals who work in already hot workplaces in hot climate areas. The increasing prevalence of this environmental health risk requires the improvement of assessment methods linked to meteorological data. Such new methods will help to reveal the size of the problem and design appropriate interventions at individual, workplace and societal level. The evaluation of occupational heat stress requires measurement of four thermal climate factors (air temperature, humidity, air velocity and heat radiation); available weather station data may serve this purpose. However, the use of meteorological data for occupational heat stress assessment is limited because weather stations do not traditionally and directly measure some important climate factors, e.g. solar radiation. In addition, local workplace environmental conditions such as local heat sources, metabolic heat production within the human body, and clothing properties, all affect the exchange of heat between the body and the environment. A robust occupational heat stress index should properly address all these factors. This article reviews and highlights a number of selected heat stress indices, indicating their advantages and disadvantages in relation to meteorological data, local workplace environments, body heat production and the use of protective clothing. These heat stress and heat strain indices include Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, Discomfort Index, Predicted Heat Strain index, and Universal Thermal Climate Index. In some cases, individuals may be monitored for heat strain through physiological measurements and medical supervision prior to and during exposure. Relevant protective and preventive strategies for alleviating heat strain are also reviewed and proposed.}, }
@article {pmid28439005, year = {2017}, author = {Diffenbaugh, NS and Singh, D and Mankin, JS and Horton, DE and Swain, DL and Touma, D and Charland, A and Liu, Y and Haugen, M and Tsiang, M and Rajaratnam, B}, title = {Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {19}, pages = {4881-4886}, pmid = {28439005}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.}, }
@article {pmid28437850, year = {2018}, author = {Visschers, VHM}, title = {Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {43-55}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12818}, pmid = {28437850}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty is related to people's concern about climate change, their trust in science, their knowledge about climate change, and their political attitude. The results of a principal component analysis showed that respondents differentiated between perceived ambiguity in climate research, measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty about the future impact of climate change. Using structural equation modeling, it was found that only perceived ambiguity was directly related to concern about climate change, whereas measurement uncertainty and future uncertainty were not. Trust in climate science was strongly associated with each type of uncertainty perception and was indirectly associated with concern about climate change. Also, more knowledge about climate change was related to less strong perceptions of each type of climate science uncertainty. Hence, it is suggested that to increase public concern about climate change, it may be especially important to consider the perceived ambiguity about climate research. Efforts that foster trust in climate science also appear highly worthwhile.}, }
@article {pmid28437400, year = {2017}, author = {Sivaram, V}, title = {The Global Warming Wild Card.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {316}, number = {5}, pages = {48-53}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0517-48}, pmid = {28437400}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid28436009, year = {2017}, author = {Andersen, LK and Davis, MDP}, title = {A wake-up call to dermatologists - climate change affects the skin.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {56}, number = {10}, pages = {e198-e199}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.13617}, pmid = {28436009}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Dermatology ; Health Education ; Humans ; Skin Diseases/*etiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Societies, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid28435862, year = {2017}, author = {Jerneck, M}, title = {Financialization impedes climate change mitigation: Evidence from the early American solar industry.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {e1601861}, pmid = {28435862}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The article investigates how financialization impedes climate change mitigation by examining its effects on the early history of one low-carbon industry, solar photovoltaics in the United States. The industry grew rapidly in the 1970s, as large financial conglomerates acquired independent firms. While providing needed financial support, conglomerates changed the focus from existing markets in consumer applications toward a future utility market that never materialized. Concentration of the industry also left it vulnerable to the corporate restructuring of the 1980s, when the conglomerates were dismantled and solar divisions were pared back or sold off to foreign firms. Both the move toward conglomeration, when corporations became managed as stock portfolios, and its subsequent reversal were the result of increased financial dominance over corporate governance. The American case is contrasted with the more successful case of Japan, where these changes to corporate governance did not occur. Insulated from shareholder pressure and financial turbulence, Japanese photovoltaics manufacturers continued to expand investment throughout the 1980s when their American rivals were cutting back. The study is informed by Joseph Schumpeter's theory of creative destruction and Hyman Minsky's theory of financialization, along with economic sociology. By highlighting the tenuous and conflicting relation between finance and production that shaped the early history of the photovoltaics industry, the article raises doubts about the prevailing approach to mitigate climate change through carbon pricing. Given the uncertainty of innovation and the ease of speculation, it will do little to spur low-carbon technology development without financial structures supporting patient capital.}, }
@article {pmid28435826, year = {2017}, author = {Baaghideh, M and Mayvaneh, F}, title = {Climate Change and Simulation of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Case Study of Mashhad, Iran.}, journal = {Iranian journal of public health}, volume = {46}, number = {3}, pages = {396-407}, pmid = {28435826}, issn = {2251-6085}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Weather and climate play a significant role in human health. We are accustomed to affects the weather conditions. By increasing or decreasing the environment temperature or change of seasons, some diseases become prevalent or remove. This study investigated the role of temperature in cardiovascular disease mortality of city of Mashhad in the current decade and its simulation in the future decades under conditions of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Cardiovascular disease mortality data and the daily temperatures data were used during (2004-2013) period. First, the correlation between cardiovascular disease mortality and maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated then by using General Circulation Model, Emissions Scenarios, and temperature data were extracted for the next five decades and finally, mortality was simulated.<br><br>RESULTS: There is a strong positive association between maximum temperature and mortality (r= 0.83, P-value<0.01), also observed a negative and weak but significant association between minimum temperatures and mortality. The results obtained from simulation show increased temperature in the next decades in Mashhad and a 1 &#xb0;C increase in maximum temperature is associated with a 4.27% (95%CI: 0.91, 7.00) increase in Cardiovascular disease mortality.<br><br>CONCLUSION: By increasing temperature and the number of hot days the cardiovascular disease mortality increases and these increases will be intensified in the future decades. Therefore, necessary preventive measures are required to mitigate temperature effects with greater attention to vulnerable group.}, }
@article {pmid28433817, year = {2017}, author = {Pandit, SN and Maitland, BM and Pandit, LK and Poesch, MS and Enders, EC}, title = {Climate change risks, extinction debt, and conservation implications for a threatened freshwater fish: Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {598}, number = {}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.228}, pmid = {28433817}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Cyprinidae ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Fresh Water ; Models, Theoretical ; South Dakota ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting many freshwater species, particularly fishes. Predictions of future climate change suggest large and deleterious effects on species with narrow dispersal abilities due to limited hydrological connectivity. In turn, this creates the potential for population isolation in thermally unsuitable habitats, leading to physiological stress, species declines or possible extirpation. The current extent of many freshwater fish species' spatio-temporal distribution patterns and their sensitivity to thermal impacts from climate change - critical information for conservation planning - are often unknown. Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus) is an ecologically important species listed as threatened or imperilled nationally (Canada) and regionally (South Dakota, United States) due to its restricted range and sensitivity to water quality and temperature. This research aimed to determine the current distribution and spatio-temporal variability in projected suitable habitat for Carmine shiner using niche-based modeling approaches (MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN models). Statistically downscaled, bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) data was used to model the distribution of Carmine shiner in central North America for the period of 2041-2060 (2050s). Maximum mean July temperature and temperature variability were the main factors in determining Carmine shiner distribution. Patterns of projected habitat change by the 2050s suggest the spatial extent of the current distribution of Carmine shiner would shift north, with >50% of the current distribution changing with future projections based on two Representative Concentrations Pathways for CO2 emissions. Whereas the southern extent of the distribution would become unsuitable for Carmine shiner, suitable habitats are predicted to become available further north, if accessible. Importantly, the majority of habitat gains for Carmine shiner would be in areas currently inaccessible due to dispersal limitations, suggesting current populations may face an extinction debt within the next half century. These results provide evidence that Carmine shiner may be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and suggest that management actions - such as assisted migration - may be needed to mitigate impacts from climate change and ensure the long-term persistence of the species.}, }
@article {pmid28432859, year = {2017}, author = {Okulewicz, A}, title = {The impact of global climate change on the spread of parasitic nematodes.}, journal = {Annals of parasitology}, volume = {63}, number = {1}, pages = {15-20}, doi = {10.17420/ap6301.79}, pmid = {28432859}, issn = {2299-0631}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/parasitology/physiology ; *Nematoda/physiology ; Nematode Infections/*epidemiology/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {Climate changes may influence the frequency, intensity and geographical distribution of parasites, directly affecting their dispersive stages in the environment (eggs, larvae) and, indirectly, the larvae living mainly in invertebrate intermediate hosts. In biologically diverse nematodes climate warming contributes to the increase in the range of distribution, colonization of new hosts and modification of their development cycles. This is particularly acute in the Arctic and pertains, for instance, to nematodes Ostertagia gruehneri and Setaria tundra parasitizing reindeer Rangifer tarandus and Umingmakstrongylus pallikuukensis in musk oxen (Ovibos moschatus). Increase in range expansion of mosquitoes Culicidae caused that nematodes of the genus Dirofilaria, especially D. repens, have been listed in autochthonous invasions even in the northern and eastern European countries. In addition, extended range of occurrence is also shown by Ancylostoma braziliense – a parasite of carnivores in the tropical and subtropical countries. In recent years over 20 cases of autochthonous creeping eruption (CE) caused by cutanea larva migrans (CLM) A. braziliense were detected in people in southern Europe (Italy, Spain, France, Germany).}, }
@article {pmid28432508, year = {2017}, author = {Walling, B and Chaudhary, S and Dhanya, CT and Kumar, A}, title = {Estimation of environmental flow incorporating water quality and hypothetical climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {189}, number = {5}, pages = {225}, pmid = {28432508}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fresh Water ; India ; Rivers ; Water Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Water Quality ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Environmental flows (Eflow, hereafter) are the flows to be maintained in the river for its healthy functioning and the sustenance and protection of aquatic ecosystems. Estimation of Eflow in any river stretch demands consideration of various factors such as flow regime, ecosystem, and health of river. However, most of the Eflow estimation studies have neglected the water quality factor. This study urges the need to consider water quality criterion in the estimation of Eflow and proposes a framework for estimating Eflow incorporating water quality variations under present and hypothetical future scenarios of climate change and pollution load. The proposed framework is applied on the polluted stretch of Yamuna River passing through Delhi, India. Required Eflow at various locations along the stretch are determined by considering possible variations in future water quantity and quality. Eflow values satisfying minimum quality requirements for different river water usage classes (classes A, B, C, and D as specified by the Central Pollution Control Board, India) are found to be between 700 and 800 m[3]/s. The estimated Eflow values may aid policymakers to derive upstream storage-release policies or effluent restrictions. Generalized nature of this framework will help its implementation on any river systems.}, }
@article {pmid28429985, year = {2017}, author = {Thiel, C and Duncan, P and Woods, N}, title = {Attitude of US obstetricians and gynaecologists to global warming and medical waste.}, journal = {Journal of health services research &amp; policy}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {162-167}, doi = {10.1177/1355819617697353}, pmid = {28429985}, issn = {1758-1060}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Global warming (or climate change) is a major public health issue, and health services are one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in high-income countries. Despite the scale of the health care sector's resource consumption, little is known about the attitude of physicians and their willingness to participate in efforts to reduce the environmental impact of health services.<br><br>METHODS: A survey of 236 obstetricians and gynaecologists at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center in Western Pennsylvania, USA. Survey responses were compared to Gallup poll data from the general population using a one-sample test of proportions, Fisher's exact tests, Chi-square test, and logistic regression.<br><br>RESULTS: Physicians in obstetrics and gynaecology were more likely than the public (84% vs. 54%; p<0.001) to believe that global warming is occurring, that media portrayal of its seriousness is accurate, and that it is caused by human activities. Two-thirds of physicians felt the amount of surgical waste generated is excessive and increasing. The majority (95%) would support efforts to reduce waste, with 66% favouring the use of reusable surgical tools over disposable where clinically equivalent. Despite their preference for reusable surgical instruments, only 20% preferred the reusable devices available to them.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Health care providers engaging in sustainability efforts may encounter significant support from physicians and may benefit from including physician leaders in their efforts.}, }
@article {pmid28428872, year = {2017}, author = {Butler, MJ and Metzger, KL and Harris, GM}, title = {Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {8}, pages = {2821-2834}, pmid = {28428872}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.}, }
@article {pmid28426754, year = {2017}, author = {Oke, TA and Hager, HA}, title = {Assessing environmental attributes and effects of climate change on Sphagnum peatland distributions in North America using single- and multi-species models.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {e0175978}, pmid = {28426754}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; North America ; Species Specificity ; *Sphagnopsida ; }, abstract = {The fate of Northern peatlands under climate change is important because of their contribution to global carbon (C) storage. Peatlands are maintained via greater plant productivity (especially of Sphagnum species) than decomposition, and the processes involved are strongly mediated by climate. Although some studies predict that warming will relax constraints on decomposition, leading to decreased C sequestration, others predict increases in productivity and thus increases in C sequestration. We explored the lack of congruence between these predictions using single-species and integrated species distribution models as proxies for understanding the environmental correlates of North American Sphagnum peatland occurrence and how projected changes to the environment might influence these peatlands under climate change. Using Maximum entropy and BIOMOD modelling platforms, we generated single and integrated species distribution models for four common Sphagnum species in North America under current climate and a 2050 climate scenario projected by three general circulation models. We evaluated the environmental correlates of the models and explored the disparities in niche breadth, niche overlap, and climate suitability among current and future models. The models consistently show that Sphagnum peatland distribution is influenced by the balance between soil moisture deficit and temperature of the driest quarter-year. The models identify the east and west coasts of North America as the core climate space for Sphagnum peatland distribution. The models show that, at least in the immediate future, the area of suitable climate for Sphagnum peatland could expand. This result suggests that projected warming would be balanced effectively by the anticipated increase in precipitation, which would increase Sphagnum productivity.}, }
@article {pmid28425445, year = {2017}, author = {Wang, Z and Lin, L and Zhang, X and Zhang, H and Liu, L and Xu, Y}, title = {Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {46432}, pmid = {28425445}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.}, }
@article {pmid28422136, year = {2017}, author = {Shimizu-Kimura, Y and Accad, A and Shapcott, A}, title = {The relationship between climate change and the endangered rainforest shrub Triunia robusta (Proteaceae) endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {46399}, pmid = {28422136}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Models, Biological ; Phylogeography ; *Proteaceae ; Queensland ; Rainforest ; Refugium ; }, abstract = {Threatened species in rainforests may be vulnerable to climate change, because of their potentially narrow thermal tolerances, small population sizes and restricted distributions. This study modelled climate induced changes on the habitat distribution of the endangered rainforest plant Triunia robusta, endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia. Species distribution models were developed for eastern Australia at 250 m grids and southeast Queensland at 25 m grids using ground-truthed presence records and environmental predictor data. The species' habitat distribution under the current climate was modelled, and the future potential habitat distributions were projected for the epochs 2030, 2050 and 2070. The eastern Australia model identified several spatially disjunct, broad habitat areas of coastal eastern Australia consistent with the current distribution of rainforests, and projected a southward and upslope contraction driven mainly by average temperatures exceeding current range limits. The southeast Queensland models suggest a dramatic upslope contraction toward locations where the majority of known populations are found. Populations located in the Sunshine Coast hinterland, consistent with past rainforest refugia, are likely to persist long-term. Upgrading the level of protection for less formal nature reserves containing viable populations is a high priority to better protect refugial T. robusta populations with respect to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28415134, year = {2017}, author = {Hamilton, CD and Kovacs, KM and Ims, RA and Aars, J and Lydersen, C}, title = {An Arctic predator-prey system in flux: climate change impacts on coastal space use by polar bears and ringed seals.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {86}, number = {5}, pages = {1054-1064}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12685}, pmid = {28415134}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Norway ; Population Dynamics ; *Seals, Earless ; *Ursidae ; }, abstract = {Climate change is impacting different species at different rates, leading to alterations in biological interactions with ramifications for wider ecosystem functioning. Understanding these alterations can help improve predictive capacity and inform management efforts designed to mitigate against negative impacts. We investigated how the movement and space use patterns of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in coastal areas in Svalbard, Norway, have been altered by a sudden decline in sea ice that occurred in 2006. We also investigated whether the spatial overlap between polar bears and their traditionally most important prey, ringed seals (Pusa hispida), has been affected by the sea-ice decline, as polar bears are dependent on a sea-ice platform for hunting seals. We attached biotelemetry devices to ringed seals (n = 60, both sexes) and polar bears (n = 67, all females) before (2002-2004) and after (2010-2013) a sudden decline in sea ice in Svalbard. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate the association of these species to environmental features and an approach based on Time Spent in Area to investigate changes in spatial overlap between the two species. Following the sea-ice reduction, polar bears spent the same amount of time close to tidal glacier fronts in the spring but less time in these areas during the summer and autumn. However, ringed seals did not alter their association with glacier fronts during summer, leading to a major decrease in spatial overlap values between these species in Svalbard's coastal areas. Polar bears now move greater distances daily and spend more time close to ground-nesting bird colonies, where bear predation can have substantial local effects. Our results indicate that sea-ice declines have impacted the degree of spatial overlap and hence the strength of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and ringed seals, with consequences for the wider Arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Shifts in ecological interactions are likely to become more widespread in many ecosystems as both predators and prey respond to changing environmental conditions induced by global warming, highlighting the importance of multi-species studies.}, }
@article {pmid28409227, year = {2017}, author = {Macel, M and Dostálek, T and Esch, S and Bucharová, A and van Dam, NM and Tielbörger, K and Verhoeven, KJF and Münzbergová, Z}, title = {Evolutionary responses to climate change in a range expanding plant.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {184}, number = {2}, pages = {543-554}, pmid = {28409227}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Herbivory ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {To understand the biological effects of climate change, it is essential to take into account species' evolutionary responses to their changing environments. Ongoing climate change is resulting in species shifting their geographical distribution ranges poleward. We tested whether a successful range expanding plant has rapidly adapted to the regional conditions in its novel range, and whether adaptation could be driven by herbivores. Furthermore, we investigated if enemy release occurred in the newly colonized areas and whether plant origins differed in herbivore resistance. Plants were cloned and reciprocally transplanted between three experimental sites across the range. Effects of herbivores on plant performance were tested by individually caging plants with either open or closed cages. There was no indication of (regional) adaptation to abiotic conditions. Plants originating from the novel range were always larger than plants from the core distribution at all experimental sites, with or without herbivory. Herbivore damage was highest and not lowest at the experimental sites in the novel range, suggesting no release from enemy impact. Genotypes from the core were more damaged compared to genotypes from newly colonized areas at the most northern site in the novel range, which was dominated by generalist slug herbivory. We also detected subtle shifts in chemical defenses between the plant origins. Genotypes from the novel range had more inducible defenses. Our results suggest that plants that are expanding their range with climate change may evolve increased vigor and altered herbivore resistance in their new range, analogous to invasive plants.}, }
@article {pmid28409088, year = {2017}, author = {Hiscock, R and Asikainen, A and Tuomisto, J and Jantunen, M and Pärjälä, E and Sabel, CE}, title = {City scale climate change policies: Do they matter for wellbeing?.}, journal = {Preventive medicine reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {265-270}, pmid = {28409088}, issn = {2211-3355}, abstract = {Climate change mitigation policies aim to reduce climate change through reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions whereas adaption policies seek to enable humans to live in a world with increasingly variable and more extreme climatic conditions. It is increasingly realised that enacting such policies will have unintended implications for public health, but there has been less focus on their implications for wellbeing. Wellbeing can be defined as a positive mental state which is influenced by living conditions. As part of URGENCHE, an EU funded project to identify health and wellbeing outcomes of city greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, a survey designed to measure these living conditions and levels of wellbeing in Kuopio, Finland was collected in December 2013. Kuopio was the northmost among seven cities in Europe and China studied. Generalised estimating equation modelling was used to determine which living conditions were associated with subjective wellbeing (measured through the WHO-5 Scale). Local greenspace and spending time in nature were associated with higher levels of wellbeing whereas cold housing and poor quality indoor air were associated with lower levels of wellbeing. Thus adaption policies to increase greenspace might, in addition to reducing heat island effects, have the co-benefit of increasing wellbeing and improving housing insulation.}, }
@article {pmid28405287, year = {2017}, author = {Deb, JC and Phinn, S and Butt, N and McAlpine, CA}, title = {The impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Dipterocarp trees.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {2238-2248}, pmid = {28405287}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal (Shorea robusta) and Garjan (Dipterocarpus turbinatus) form mono-specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous, evergreen, and semievergreen forests across South Asia and continental parts of Southeast Asia. They provide valuable timber and play an important role in the economy of many Asian countries. However, both Dipterocarp trees are threatened by continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and global climate change. While climatic regimes in the Asian tropics are changing, research on climate change-driven shifts in the distribution of tropical Asian trees is limited. We applied a bioclimatic modeling approach to these two Dipterocarp trees Sal and Garjan. We used presence-only records for the tree species, five bioclimatic variables, and selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5: an optimistic scenario and RCP8.5: a pessimistic scenario) and three global climate models (GCMs) to encompass the full range of variation in the models. We modeled climate space suitability for both species, projected to 2070, using a climate envelope modeling tool "MaxEnt" (the maximum entropy algorithm). Annual precipitation was the key bioclimatic variable in all GCMs for explaining the current and future distributions of Sal and Garjan (Sal: 49.97 ± 1.33; Garjan: 37.63 ± 1.19). Our models predict that suitable climate space for Sal will decline by 24% and 34% (the mean of the three GCMs) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In contrast, the consequences of imminent climate change appear less severe for Garjan, with a decline of 17% and 27% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The findings of this study can be used to set conservation guidelines for Sal and Garjan by identifying vulnerable habitats in the region. In addition, the natural habitats of Sal and Garjan can be categorized as low to high risk under changing climates where artificial regeneration should be undertaken for forest restoration.}, }
@article {pmid28402225, year = {2018}, author = {Wang, X}, title = {The role of attitudinal motivations and collective efficacy on Chinese consumers' intentions to engage in personal behaviors to mitigate climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of social psychology}, volume = {158}, number = {1}, pages = {51-63}, doi = {10.1080/00224545.2017.1302401}, pmid = {28402225}, issn = {1940-1183}, mesh = {Adult ; *Attitude ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Consumer Behavior ; Female ; Humans ; *Intention ; Male ; *Social Behavior ; }, abstract = {The Chinese government has recently pledged to reduce its CO2 emissions by 2030. Industrial use of energy, however, is just one source of greenhouse gas emissions. Chinese consumers' more affluent lifestyles also lead to increased consumption of energy, which can result in greenhouse gas emissions. Based on a survey of 516 Chinese consumers, the present investigation examined whether their attitudinal motivations and collective efficacy are related to their intentions to engage in personal actions that may help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Results show that the utilitarian motivation related to the effectiveness of personal actions to alleviate climate change, motivation to express their moral values, self-esteem maintenance motivation, and collective efficacy predicted their attitudes toward these personal actions. Collective efficacy was in turn predicted by future orientation, norms, and the utilitarian motivation. Finally, attitudes and collective efficacy were two major considerations that predicted behavioral intentions. Implications for programs to promote low-carbon actions and lifestyles among Chinese consumers are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid28401508, year = {2017}, author = {Taebi, B and Safari, A}, title = {On Effectiveness and Legitimacy of 'Shaming' as a Strategy for Combatting Climate Change.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {1289-1306}, pmid = {28401508}, issn = {1471-5546}, support = {275-20-040//Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Commerce ; *Cooperative Behavior ; Disclosure ; Government ; Greenhouse Gases ; Humans ; Morals ; *Organizations ; *Shame ; *Social Values ; Voluntary Programs ; }, abstract = {While states have agreed to substantial reduction of emissions in the Paris Agreement, the success of the Agreement strongly depends on the cooperation of large Multinational Corporations. Short of legal obligations, we discuss the effectiveness and moral legitimacy of voluntary approaches based on naming and shaming. We argue that effectiveness and legitimacy are closely tied together; as voluntary approaches are the only alternative to legally imposed duties, they are most morally defensible particularly if they would be the most effective in reducing the harmful greenhouse gases. Shaming could be made effective if states could prompt more corporations to accept voluntary cuts with high gains-such as public acknowledgements-and high losses, such as reporting on noncompliance and public exposure (naming), along with some kind of condemnation (shaming). An important challenge of such voluntary approaches is how to ensure compliance with the agreed upon commitments, while avoiding greenwashing or selective disclosure. Certain institutional arrangements are inevitable, including an independent measurement, monitoring and verification mechanism. In this paper, we discuss the potentials and ethical pitfalls of shaming as a strategy when corporations have a direct relationship with consumers, but also when they are in a relationship with governments and other corporations.}, }
@article {pmid28397796, year = {2017}, author = {Mairal, M and Sanmartín, I and Herrero, A and Pokorny, L and Vargas, P and Aldasoro, JJ and Alarcón, M}, title = {Geographic barriers and Pleistocene climate change shaped patterns of genetic variation in the Eastern Afromontane biodiversity hotspot.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {45749}, pmid = {28397796}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern ; Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Genetic Variation ; Genome, Plant ; Magnoliopsida/*genetics ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {The Eastern African Afromontane forest is getting increased attention in conservation studies because of its high endemicity levels and shrinking geographic distribution. Phylogeographic studies have found evidence of high levels of genetic variation structured across the Great Rift System. Here, we use the epiphytic plant species Canarina eminii to explore causal explanations for this pattern. Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using plastid regions and AFLP fragments. Population genetic analyses, Statistical Parsimony, and Bayesian methods were used to infer genetic diversity, genealogical relationships, structure, gene flow barriers, and the spatiotemporal evolution of populations. A strong phylogeographic structure was found, with two reciprocally monophyletic lineages on each side of the Great Rift System, high genetic exclusivity, and restricted gene flow among mountain ranges. We explain this pattern by topographic and ecological changes driven by geological rifting in Eastern Africa. Subsequent genetic structure is attributed to Pleistocene climatic changes, in which sky-islands acted as long-term refuges and cradles of genetic diversity. Our study highlights the importance of climate change and geographic barriers associated with the African Rift System in shaping population genetic patterns, as well as the need to preserve the high levels of exclusive and critically endangered biodiversity harboured by current patches of the Afromontane forest.}, }
@article {pmid28396828, year = {2017}, author = {Langille, AB and Arteca, EM and Newman, JA}, title = {The impacts of climate change on the abundance and distribution of the Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii) in the United States and Canada.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {e3192}, pmid = {28396828}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {D. suzukii is a relatively recent and destructive pest species to the North American soft-skinned fruit industry. Understanding this species' potential to shift in abundance and range due to changing climate is an important part of an effective mitigation and management strategy. We parameterized a temperature-driven D. suzukii population dynamics model using temperature data derived from several Global Circulation Models (CMIP5) with a range of relative concentration pathway (RCP) predictions. Mean consensus between the models suggest that without adaptation to both higher prolonged temperatures and higher short-term temperature events D. suzukii population levels are likely to drop in currently higher-risk regions. The potential drop in population is evident both as time progresses and as the severity of the RCP scenario increases. Some regions, particularly in northern latitudes, may experience increased populations due to milder winter and more developmentally-ideal summer conditions, but many of these regions are not currently known for soft-skinned fruit production and so the effects of this population increase may not have a significant impact.}, }
@article {pmid28396575, year = {2017}, author = {Hunter, P}, title = {The role of biology in global climate change: Interdisciplinary research in biogeochemistry can help to understand local and global fluxes of carbon and other elements and inform environmental policies.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {18}, number = {5}, pages = {673-676}, pmid = {28396575}, issn = {1469-3178}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Policy ; Interdisciplinary Research/*methods ; }, abstract = {Biogeochemistry aims to understand the flux of elements between life, the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Its insights could inform international policies to mitigate the effects of greenhouse gases and global climate change. [Image: see text]}, }
@article {pmid28394914, year = {2017}, author = {Roitberg, E and Shoshany, M}, title = {Can spatial patterns along climatic gradients predict ecosystem responses to climate change? Experimenting with reaction-diffusion simulations.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {e0174942}, pmid = {28394914}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Mediterranean Region ; *Models, Theoretical ; Plants ; Rain ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Following a predicted decline in water resources in the Mediterranean Basin, we used reaction-diffusion equations to gain a better understanding of expected changes in properties of vegetation patterns that evolve along the rainfall transition between semi-arid and arid rainfall regions. Two types of scenarios were investigated: the first, a discrete scenario, where the potential consequences of climate change are represented by patterns evolving at discrete rainfall levels along a rainfall gradient. This scenario concerns space-for-time substitutions characteristic of the rainfall gradient hypothesis. The second, a continuous scenario, represents explicitly the effect of rainfall decline on patterns which evolved at different rainfall levels along the rainfall gradient prior to the climate change. The eccentricity of patterns that emerge through these two scenarios was found to decrease with decreasing rainfall, while their solidity increased. Due to their inverse modes of change, their ratio was found to be a highly sensitive indicator for pattern response to rainfall decline. An eccentricity ratio versus rainfall (ER:R) line was generalized from the results of the discrete experiment, where ERs above this line represent developed (recovered) patterns and ERs below this line represent degraded patterns. For the rainfall range of 1.2 to 0.8 mm/day, the continuous rainfall decline experiment with ERs that lie above the ER:R line, yielded patterns less affected by rainfall decline than would be expected according to the discrete representation of ecosystems' response. Thus, for this range, space-for-time substitution represents an overestimation of the consequences of the expected rainfall decline. For rainfall levels below 0.8 mm/day, eccentricity ratios from the discrete and continuous experiments practically converge to the same trend of pattern change along the ER:R line. Thus, the rainfall gradient hypothesis may be valid for regions characterized by this important rainfall range, which typically include desert fringe ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid28394311, year = {2017}, author = {Scarrow, R}, title = {Climate change: Variance in crop yields.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {17059}, doi = {10.1038/nplants.2017.59}, pmid = {28394311}, issn = {2055-0278}, }
@article {pmid28394023, year = {2017}, author = {Willis, CG and Law, E and Williams, AC and Franzone, BF and Bernardos, R and Bruno, L and Hopkins, C and Schorn, C and Weber, E and Park, DS and Davis, CC}, title = {CrowdCurio: an online crowdsourcing platform to facilitate climate change studies using herbarium specimens.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {215}, number = {1}, pages = {479-488}, doi = {10.1111/nph.14535}, pmid = {28394023}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crowdsourcing ; Flowers/growth &amp; development ; *Software ; }, abstract = {Phenology is a key aspect of plant success. Recent research has demonstrated that herbarium specimens can provide important information on plant phenology. Massive digitization efforts have the potential to greatly expand herbarium-based phenological research, but also pose a serious challenge regarding efficient data collection. Here, we introduce CrowdCurio, a crowdsourcing tool for the collection of phenological data from herbarium specimens. We test its utility by having workers collect phenological data (number of flower buds, open flowers and fruits) from specimens of two common New England (USA) species: Chelidonium majus and Vaccinium angustifolium. We assess the reliability of using nonexpert workers (i.e. Amazon Mechanical Turk) against expert workers. We also use these data to estimate the phenological sensitivity to temperature for both species across multiple phenophases. We found no difference in the data quality of nonexperts and experts. Nonexperts, however, were a more efficient way of collecting more data at lower cost. We also found that phenological sensitivity varied across both species and phenophases. Our study demonstrates the utility of CrowdCurio as a crowdsourcing tool for the collection of phenological data from herbarium specimens. Furthermore, our results highlight the insight gained from collecting large amounts of phenological data to estimate multiple phenophases.}, }
@article {pmid28393865, year = {2017}, author = {Guo, Y and Li, X and Zhao, Z and Wei, H and Gao, B and Gu, W}, title = {Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {46221}, pmid = {28393865}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Geography ; Global Warming ; Mycorrhizae/*physiology ; Probability ; Tricholoma/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 10[6] km[2], 0.14 × 10[6] km[2], and 0.11 × 10[6] km[2], respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.}, }
@article {pmid28389445, year = {2017}, author = {Sarfaty, M}, title = {High risk US policy on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {357}, number = {}, pages = {j1735}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.j1735}, pmid = {28389445}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Global Health ; Humans ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid28389002, year = {2017}, author = {Angelini, K}, title = {Climate Change, Health, and the Role of Nurses.}, journal = {Nursing for women's health}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {79-83}, doi = {10.1016/j.nwh.2017.02.003}, pmid = {28389002}, issn = {1751-486X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Nurses ; Nursing/*methods ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change is progressing and carries significant public health consequences that nurses will need to be aware of and address in practice and research. The Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments encourages nurses and professional nursing organizations to learn about the health effects of climate change and to conduct research and implement adaptive strategies to provide optimal patient care within a changing environment. Pregnant women, newborns, and children are particularly vulnerable to potential health effects related to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28387247, year = {2017}, author = {Wang, G and Yang, P and Zhou, X}, title = {Identification of the driving forces of climate change using the longest instrumental temperature record.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {46091}, pmid = {28387247}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The identification of causal effects is a fundamental problem in climate change research. Here, a new perspective on climate change causality is presented using the central England temperature (CET) dataset, the longest instrumental temperature record, and a combination of slow feature analysis and wavelet analysis. The driving forces of climate change were investigated and the results showed two independent degrees of freedom -a 3.36-year cycle and a 22.6-year cycle, which seem to be connected to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle and the Hale sunspot cycle, respectively. Moreover, these driving forces were modulated in amplitude by signals with millennial timescales.}, }
@article {pmid28386964, year = {2017}, author = {Liao, W and Menge, DNL and Lichstein, JW and Ángeles-Pérez, G}, title = {Global climate change will increase the abundance of symbiotic nitrogen-fixing trees in much of North America.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {11}, pages = {4777-4787}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13716}, pmid = {28386964}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Mexico ; *Nitrogen Fixation ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Symbiosis ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; United States ; }, abstract = {Symbiotic nitrogen (N)-fixing trees can drive N and carbon cycling and thus are critical components of future climate projections. Despite detailed understanding of how climate influences N-fixation enzyme activity and physiology, comparatively little is known about how climate influences N-fixing tree abundance. Here, we used forest inventory data from the USA and Mexico (>125,000 plots) along with climate data to address two questions: (1) How does the abundance distribution of N-fixing trees (rhizobial, actinorhizal, and both types together) vary with mean annual temperature (MAT) and precipitation (MAP)? (2) How will changing climate shift the abundance distribution of N-fixing trees? We found that rhizobial N-fixing trees were nearly absent below 15°C MAT, but above 15°C MAT, they increased in abundance as temperature rose. We found no evidence for a hump-shaped response to temperature throughout the range of our data. Rhizobial trees were more abundant in dry than in wet ecosystems. By contrast, actinorhizal trees peaked in abundance at 5-10°C MAT and were least abundant in areas with intermediate precipitation. Next, we used a climate-envelope approach to project how N-fixing tree relative abundance might change in the future. The climate-envelope projection showed that rhizobial N-fixing trees will likely become more abundant in many areas by 2080, particularly in the southern USA and western Mexico, due primarily to rising temperatures. Projections for actinorhizal N-fixing trees were more nuanced due to their nonmonotonic dependence on temperature and precipitation. Overall, the dominant trend is that warming will increase N-fixing tree abundance in much of the USA and Mexico, with large increases up to 40° North latitude. The quantitative link we provide between climate and N-fixing tree abundance can help improve the representation of symbiotic N fixation in Earth System Models.}, }
@article {pmid28385761, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Climate change and cattle farming.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {180}, number = {14}, pages = {363}, doi = {10.1136/vr.j1408}, pmid = {28385761}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animals ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Farms ; }, }
@article {pmid28385759, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Climate change and cattle farming.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {180}, number = {14}, pages = {362-363}, doi = {10.1136/vr.j1407}, pmid = {28385759}, issn = {2042-7670}, }
@article {pmid28384575, year = {2017}, author = {Gao, X and Zhao, Q and Zhao, X and Wu, P and Pan, W and Gao, X and Sun, M}, title = {Temporal and spatial evolution of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in the Loess Plateau under climate change from 2001 to 2050.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {595}, number = {}, pages = {191-200}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.226}, pmid = {28384575}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Loess Plateau has great uncertainty on drought occurrence due to climate change. This paper analyzes the evolution of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and regional downscaling model (RegCM4.0). Results indicate that, under RCP2.6 Scenario, the precipitation will increase significantly (5% confidence level) at the rate of 16.40mm/10a. However, the potential evapotranspiration is showing non-significant decreasing trend at the rate of 2.16mm/10a. Moreover, the SPEI will decrease in the south and northernmost area and increase in the central northern area of Loess Plateau. Under RCP8.5 Scenario, the precipitation will increase significantly (5% confidence level) at the rate of 19.12mm/10a. The potential evapotranspiration will non-significantly decrease at the rate of 2.16mm/10a and the SPEI is showing increasing trend almost in the whole Loess Plateau. Generally, Loess Plateau is becoming wetter in the central part under RCP2.6 Scenario and the wet area will be enlarged to almost the whole plateau under RCP8.5 Scenario. Based on the results, the water resources will increase under global warming, which may alleviate the water scarcity issue in the Loess Plateau.}, }
@article {pmid28384572, year = {2017}, author = {Jenkins, K and Surminski, S and Hall, J and Crick, F}, title = {Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an Agent-Based Model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {595}, number = {}, pages = {159-168}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.242}, pmid = {28384572}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally.}, }
@article {pmid28381636, year = {2017}, author = {Beerling, DJ}, title = {Enhanced rock weathering: biological climate change mitigation with co-benefits for food security?.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {28381636}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid28381631, year = {2017}, author = {Edwards, DP and Lim, F and James, RH and Pearce, CR and Scholes, J and Freckleton, RP and Beerling, DJ}, title = {Climate change mitigation: potential benefits and pitfalls of enhanced rock weathering in tropical agriculture.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {28381631}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forests ; Humans ; Tropical Climate ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Restricting future global temperature increase to 2°C or less requires the adoption of negative emissions technologies for carbon capture and storage. We review the potential for deployment of enhanced weathering (EW), via the application of crushed reactive silicate rocks (such as basalt), on over 680 million hectares of tropical agricultural and tree plantations to offset fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Warm tropical climates and productive crops will substantially enhance weathering rates, with potential co-benefits including decreased soil acidification and increased phosphorus supply promoting higher crop yields sparing forest for conservation, and reduced cultural eutrophication. Potential pitfalls include the impacts of mining operations on deforestation, producing the energy to crush and transport silicates and the erosion of silicates into rivers and coral reefs that increases inorganic turbidity, sedimentation and pH, with unknown impacts for biodiversity. We identify nine priority research areas for untapping the potential of EW in the tropics, including effectiveness of tropical agriculture at EW for major crops in relation to particle sizes and soil types, impacts on human health, and effects on farmland, adjacent forest and stream-water biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid28381630, year = {2017}, author = {Kantola, IB and Masters, MD and Beerling, DJ and Long, SP and DeLucia, EH}, title = {Potential of global croplands and bioenergy crops for climate change mitigation through deployment for enhanced weathering.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {28381630}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate ; Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Conventional row crop agriculture for both food and fuel is a source of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, and intensifying production on agricultural land increases the potential for soil C loss and soil acidification due to fertilizer use. Enhanced weathering (EW) in agricultural soils-applying crushed silicate rock as a soil amendment-is a method for combating global climate change while increasing nutrient availability to plants. EW uses land that is already producing food and fuel to sequester carbon (C), and reduces N2O loss through pH buffering. As biofuel use increases, EW in bioenergy crops offers the opportunity to sequester CO2 while reducing fossil fuel combustion. Uncertainties remain in the long-term effects and global implications of large-scale efforts to directly manipulate Earth's atmospheric CO2 composition, but EW in agricultural lands is an opportunity to employ these soils to sequester atmospheric C while benefitting crop production and the global climate.}, }
@article {pmid28377519, year = {2017}, author = {Buckley, YM and Csergő, AM}, title = {Predicting invasion winners and losers under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {16}, pages = {4040-4041}, pmid = {28377519}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Competitive Behavior ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid28374226, year = {2017}, author = {Møller, LR and Drews, M and Larsen, MAD}, title = {Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {60}, number = {1}, pages = {104-117}, pmid = {28374226}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods/organization &amp; administration ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Decision Making ; Farms/organization &amp; administration ; Forecasting ; Ghana ; *Models, Theoretical ; Monte Carlo Method ; Temperature ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28370807, year = {2017}, author = {Butaric, LN and Light, LEO and Juengst, SL}, title = {A call for action: Why anthropologists can (and should) join the discussion on climate change through education.}, journal = {American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1002/ajhb.23002}, pmid = {28370807}, issn = {1520-6300}, mesh = {*Anthropology ; *Climate Change ; Health Personnel/*education ; *Interdisciplinary Communication ; Intersectoral Collaboration ; }, abstract = {Anthropologists, human biologists, and researchers in related fields have been investigating the human-environment interaction and its effects on health for decades. While there have been numerous studies from the medical- and health-sectors pointing to the connection between climate change and health needs, as well as studies advocating for the incorporation of appropriate curricula addressing these needs in medical schools and health-professional programs, this connection is not being systematically taught to our future healthcare professionals. Here, we first briefly summarize research highlighting the interaction between environment and health; we follow this with discussion about why this interaction is important for current and future medical professionals to understand, particularly in light of the current issues of climate change. We specifically address how anthropologists and human biologists have contributed to the literature on marginal environments and climate change, and how anthropological research may be incorporated in health-oriented and medical classrooms to aid in this discussion. Through interdisciplinary collaboration between anthropologists, human biologists, medical-health professionals, and researchers in other fields, we can learn from our past and play a part in piecing together our future health care issues and needs.}, }
@article {pmid28370800, year = {2017}, author = {Mair, L and Harrison, PJ and Räty, M and Bärring, L and Strandberg, G and Snäll, T}, title = {Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {27}, number = {5}, pages = {1485-1497}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1541}, pmid = {28370800}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Basidiomycota/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Forestry ; Forests ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Dispersal ; Species Specificity ; Trees/microbiology/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to drive the distribution retraction of northern species. However, particularly in regions with a history of intensive exploitation, changes in habitat management could facilitate distribution expansions counter to expectations under climate change. Here, we test the potential for future forest management to facilitate the southward expansion of an old-forest species from the boreal region into the boreo-nemoral region, contrary to expectations under climate change. We used an ensemble of species distribution models based on citizen science data to project the response of Phellinus ferrugineofuscus, a red-listed old-growth indicator, wood-decaying fungus, to six forest management and climate change scenarios. We projected change in habitat suitability across the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions of Sweden for the period 2020-2100. Scenarios varied in the proportion of forest set aside from production, the level of timber extraction, and the magnitude of climate change. Habitat suitabilities for the study species were projected to show larger relative increases over time in the boreo-nemoral region compared to the boreal region, under all scenarios. By 2100, mean suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreo-nemoral region were similar to the suitabilities projected for set-aside forest in the boreal region in 2020, suggesting that occurrence in the boreo-nemoral region could be increased. However, across all scenarios, consistently higher projected suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreal region indicated that the boreal region remained the species stronghold. Furthermore, negative effects of climate change were evident in the boreal region, and projections suggested that climatic changes may eventually counteract the positive effects of forest management in the boreo-nemoral region. Our results suggest that the current rarity of this old-growth indicator species in the boreo-nemoral region may be due to the history of intensive forestry. Forest management therefore has the potential to compensate for the negative effects of climate change. However, increased occurrence at the southern range edge would depend on the dispersal and colonization ability of the species. An increase in the amount of set-aside forest across both the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions is therefore likely to be required to prevent the decline of old-forest species under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28369187, year = {2017}, author = {Takahashi, K and Motoki, Y and Tanimoto, T and Kusumi, E and Kami, M}, title = {Concerns About the Attitudes of President Trump Toward Isolationism, Vaccination, and Climate Change.}, journal = {Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America}, volume = {64}, number = {10}, pages = {1465-1466}, doi = {10.1093/cid/cix225}, pmid = {28369187}, issn = {1537-6591}, mesh = {Capital Financing ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; United States ; Vaccination/*psychology ; }, }
@article {pmid28366280, year = {2017}, author = {Elliff, CI and Silva, IR}, title = {Coral reefs as the first line of defense: Shoreline protection in face of climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {127}, number = {}, pages = {148-154}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2017.03.007}, pmid = {28366280}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Coral Reefs ; }, abstract = {Coral reefs are responsible for a wide array of ecosystem services including shoreline protection. However, the processes involved in delivering this particular service have not been fully understood. The objective of the present review was to compile the main results in the literature regarding the study of shoreline protection delivered by coral reefs, identifying the main threats climate change imposes to the service, and discuss mitigation and recovery strategies that can and have been applied to these ecosystems. While different zones of a reef have been associated with different levels of wave energy and wave height attenuation, more information is still needed regarding the capacity of different reef morphologies to deliver shoreline protection. Moreover, the synergy between the main threats imposed by climate change to coral reefs has also not been thoroughly investigated. Recovery strategies are being tested and while there are numerous mitigation options, the challenge remains as to how to implement them and monitor their efficacy.}, }
@article {pmid28365904, year = {2017}, author = {Michalek, AM}, title = {Climate Change[3]!.}, journal = {Journal of cancer education : the official journal of the American Association for Cancer Education}, volume = {32}, number = {2}, pages = {209-210}, doi = {10.1007/s13187-017-1218-3}, pmid = {28365904}, issn = {1543-0154}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid28357050, year = {2017}, author = {Flouris, AD and Kenny, GP}, title = {Heat remains unaccounted for in thermal physiology and climate change research.}, journal = {F1000Research}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {221}, pmid = {28357050}, issn = {2046-1402}, abstract = {In the aftermath of the Paris Agreement, there is a crucial need for scientists in both thermal physiology and climate change research to develop the integrated approaches necessary to evaluate the health, economic, technological, social, and cultural impacts of 1.5°C warming. Our aim was to explore the fidelity of remote temperature measurements for quantitatively identifying the continuous redistribution of heat within both the Earth and the human body. Not accounting for the regional distribution of warming and heat storage patterns can undermine the results of thermal physiology and climate change research. These concepts are discussed herein using two parallel examples: the so-called slowdown of the Earth's surface temperature warming in the period 1998-2013; and the controversial results in thermal physiology, arising from relying heavily on core temperature measurements. In total, the concept of heat is of major importance for the integrity of systems, such as the Earth and human body. At present, our understanding about the interplay of key factors modulating the heat distribution on the surface of the Earth and in the human body remains incomplete. Identifying and accounting for the interconnections among these factors will be instrumental in improving the accuracy of both climate models and health guidelines.}, }
@article {pmid28360268, year = {2017}, author = {Pecl, GT and Araújo, MB and Bell, JD and Blanchard, J and Bonebrake, TC and Chen, IC and Clark, TD and Colwell, RK and Danielsen, F and Evengård, B and Falconi, L and Ferrier, S and Frusher, S and Garcia, RA and Griffis, RB and Hobday, AJ and Janion-Scheepers, C and Jarzyna, MA and Jennings, S and Lenoir, J and Linnetved, HI and Martin, VY and McCormack, PC and McDonald, J and Mitchell, NJ and Mustonen, T and Pandolfi, JM and Pettorelli, N and Popova, E and Robinson, SA and Scheffers, BR and Shaw, JD and Sorte, CJ and Strugnell, JM and Sunday, JM and Tuanmu, MN and Vergés, A and Villanueva, C and Wernberg, T and Wapstra, E and Williams, SE}, title = {Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {355}, number = {6332}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.aai9214}, pmid = {28360268}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Food Supply ; Health ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.}, }
@article {pmid28359315, year = {2017}, author = {Tong, MX and Hansen, A and Hanson-Easey, S and Cameron, S and Xiang, J and Liu, Q and Liu, X and Sun, Y and Weinstein, P and Han, GS and Williams, C and Bi, P}, title = {Perceptions of malaria control and prevention in an era of climate change: a cross-sectional survey among CDC staff in China.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {136}, pmid = {28359315}, issn = {1475-2875}, mesh = {Adult ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; China ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*methods/*organization &amp; administration ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/*prevention &amp; control ; Female ; Government Agencies ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Personnel/*psychology ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Though there was the significant decrease in the incidence of malaria in central and southwest China during the 1980s and 1990s, there has been a re-emergence of malaria since 2000.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted amongst the staff of eleven Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China to gauge their perceptions regarding the impacts of climate change on malaria transmission and its control and prevention. Descriptive analysis was performed to study CDC staff's knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and suggestions for malaria control in the face of climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: A majority (79.8%) of CDC staff were concerned about climate change and 79.7% believed the weather was becoming warmer. Most participants (90.3%) indicated climate change had a negative effect on population health, 92.6 and 86.8% considered that increasing temperatures and precipitation would influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases including malaria. About half (50.9%) of the surveyed staff indicated malaria had re-emerged in recent years, and some outbreaks were occurring in new geographic areas. The main reasons for such re-emergence were perceived to be: mosquitoes in high-density, numerous imported cases, climate change, poor environmental conditions, internal migrant populations, and lack of health awareness.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study found most CDC staff endorsed the statement that climate change had a negative impact on infectious disease transmission. Malaria had re-emerged in some areas of China, and most of the staff believed that this can be managed. However, high densities of mosquitoes and the continuous increase in imported cases of malaria in local areas, together with environmental changes are bringing about critical challenges to malaria control in China. This study contributes to an understanding of climate change related perceptions of malaria control and prevention amongst CDC staff. It may help to formulate in-house training guidelines, community health promotion programmes and policies to improve the capacity of malaria control and prevention in the face of climate change in China.}, }
@article {pmid28359175, year = {2017}, author = {Eads, DA and Hoogland, JL}, title = {Precipitation, Climate Change, and Parasitism of Prairie Dogs by Fleas that Transmit Plague.}, journal = {The Journal of parasitology}, volume = {103}, number = {4}, pages = {309-319}, doi = {10.1645/16-195}, pmid = {28359175}, issn = {1937-2345}, mesh = {Age Distribution ; Animals ; Arizona/epidemiology ; Binomial Distribution ; Climate Change ; Colorado/epidemiology ; Female ; Flea Infestations/epidemiology/parasitology/*veterinary ; Linear Models ; Male ; Plague/epidemiology/transmission/veterinary ; Rain ; Rodent Diseases/epidemiology/*parasitology ; Sciuridae/*parasitology ; Seasons ; Sex Distribution ; Siphonaptera/classification/microbiology ; Utah/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Fleas (Insecta: Siphonaptera) are hematophagous ectoparasites that can reduce the fitness of vertebrate hosts. Laboratory populations of fleas decline under dry conditions, implying that populations of fleas will also decline when precipitation is scarce under natural conditions. If precipitation and hence vegetative production are reduced, however, then herbivorous hosts might suffer declines in body condition and have weakened defenses against fleas, so that fleas will increase in abundance. We tested these competing hypotheses using information from 23 yr of research on 3 species of colonial prairie dogs in the western United States: Gunnison's prairie dog (Cynomys gunnisoni, 1989-1994), Utah prairie dog (Cynomys parvidens, 1996-2005), and white-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys leucurus, 2006-2012). For all 3 species, flea-counts per individual varied inversely with the number of days in the prior growing season with >10 mm of precipitation, an index of the number of precipitation events that might have caused a substantial, prolonged increase in soil moisture and vegetative production. Flea-counts per Utah prairie dog also varied inversely with cumulative precipitation of the prior growing season. Furthermore, flea-counts per Gunnison's and white-tailed prairie dog varied inversely with cumulative precipitation of the just-completed January and February. These results complement research on black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) and might have important ramifications for plague, a bacterial disease transmitted by fleas that devastates populations of prairie dogs. In particular, our results might help to explain why, at some colonies, epizootics of plague, which can kill >95% of prairie dogs, are more likely to occur during or shortly after periods of reduced precipitation. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of droughts in the grasslands of western North America. If so, then climate change might affect the occurrence of plague epizootics among prairie dogs and other mammalian species that associate with them.}, }
@article {pmid28355622, year = {2017}, author = {Cegolon, L and Heymann, WC and Lange, JH}, title = {Climate change, emerging infections and blood donations.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/jtm/taw098}, pmid = {28355622}, issn = {1708-8305}, mesh = {*Blood Transfusion ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*transmission ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Travel ; }, }
@article {pmid28355282, year = {2017}, author = {Massardier-Galatà, L and Morinay, J and Bailleul, F and Wajnberg, E and Guinet, C and Coquillard, P}, title = {Breeding success of a marine central place forager in the context of climate change: A modeling approach.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {e0173797}, pmid = {28355282}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Newborn ; Animals, Suckling/physiology ; Antarctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Feeding Behavior/*physiology ; Female ; Fur Seals/*physiology ; *Models, Statistical ; Oceans and Seas ; Predatory Behavior/*physiology ; Reproduction/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In response to climate warming, a southward shift in productive frontal systems serving as the main foraging sites for many top predator species is likely to occur in Subantarctic areas. Central place foragers, such as seabirds and pinnipeds, are thus likely to cope with an increase in the distance between foraging locations and their land-based breeding colonies. Understanding how central place foragers should modify their foraging behavior in response to changes in prey accessibility appears crucial. A spatially explicit individual-based simulation model (Marine Central Place Forager Simulator (MarCPFS)), including bio-energetic components, was built to evaluate effects of possible changes in prey resources accessibility on individual performances and breeding success. The study was calibrated on a particular example: the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella), which alternates between oceanic areas in which females feed and the land-based colony in which they suckle their young over a 120 days rearing period. Our model shows the importance of the distance covered to feed and prey aggregation which appeared to be key factors to which animals are highly sensitive. Memorization and learning abilities also appear to be essential breeding success traits. Females were found to be most successful for intermediate levels of prey aggregation and short distance to the resource, resulting in optimal female body length. Increased distance to resources due to climate warming should hinder pups' growth and survival while female body length should increase.}, }
@article {pmid28355191, year = {2017}, author = {Dolgin, E}, title = {Climate change: As the ice melts.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {543}, number = {7647}, pages = {S54-S55}, pmid = {28355191}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Animals, Wild/microbiology/parasitology/virology ; Arctic Regions/epidemiology ; Beluga Whale/*parasitology ; Borrelia burgdorferi/*isolation &amp; purification ; Canada/epidemiology ; Diet ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/epidemiology/virology ; Erysipelothrix/*isolation &amp; purification ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Ice Cover ; Incidence ; Indians, North American ; Lyme Disease/epidemiology/microbiology ; Public Health/methods/trends ; Siberia/epidemiology ; Toxoplasma/genetics/*isolation &amp; purification ; Toxoplasmosis/epidemiology/parasitology/prevention &amp; control ; Uncertainty ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology/parasitology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; }, }
@article {pmid28352533, year = {2016}, author = {Mattiasson, B}, title = {Conquering climate change: The vital role of industrial biotechnology to meet Paris Agreement's ambitious goals.}, journal = {Biotechnology reports (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1016/j.btre.2016.02.003}, pmid = {28352533}, issn = {2215-017X}, }
@article {pmid28352286, year = {2017}, author = {Houghton, A and Austin, J and Beerman, A and Horton, C}, title = {An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators in a Rural District.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2017}, number = {}, pages = {3407325}, pmid = {28352286}, issn = {1687-9813}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Environmental Health/*methods ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; *Floods ; Kentucky ; Public Health/*methods ; Rural Population ; }, abstract = {Climate change represents a significant and growing threat to population health. Rural areas face unique challenges, such as high rates of vulnerable populations; economic uncertainty due to their reliance on industries that are vulnerable to climate change; less resilient infrastructure; and lower levels of access to community and emergency services than urban areas. This article fills a gap in public health practice by developing climate and health environmental public health indicators for a local public health department in a rural area. We adapted the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network's framework for climate and health indicators to a seven-county health department in Western Kentucky. Using a three-step review process, we identified primary climate-related environmental public health hazards for the region (extreme heat, drought, and flooding) and a suite of related exposure, health outcome, population vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability indicators. Indicators that performed more poorly at the county level than at the state and national level were defined as "high vulnerability." Six to eight high vulnerability indicators were identified for each county. The local health department plans to use the results to enhance three key areas of existing services: epidemiology, public health preparedness, and community health assessment.}, }
@article {pmid28348926, year = {2017}, author = {Canestrelli, D and Bisconti, R and Chiocchio, A and Maiorano, L and Zampiglia, M and Nascetti, G}, title = {Climate change promotes hybridisation between deeply divergent species.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {e3072}, pmid = {28348926}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Rare hybridisations between deeply divergent animal species have been reported for decades in a wide range of taxa, but have often remained unexplained, mainly considered chance events and reported as anecdotal. Here, we combine field observations with long-term data concerning natural hybridisations, climate, land-use, and field-validated species distribution models for two deeply divergent and naturally sympatric toad species in Europe (Bufo bufo and Bufotes viridis species groups). We show that climate warming and seasonal extreme temperatures are conspiring to set the scene for these maladaptive hybridisations, by differentially affecting life-history traits of both species. Our results identify and provide evidence of an ultimate cause for such events, and reveal that the potential influence of climate change on interspecific hybridisations goes far beyond closely related species. Furthermore, climate projections suggest that the chances for these events will steadily increase in the near future.}, }
@article {pmid28348220, year = {2017}, author = {Matthews, TK and Wilby, RL and Murphy, C}, title = {Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {15}, pages = {3861-3866}, pmid = {28348220}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {China ; *Global Warming ; *Heat Stress Disorders/etiology ; Humans ; India ; Nigeria ; Pakistan ; *Public Health ; Urban Health ; Urban Population ; }, abstract = {In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.}, }
@article {pmid28348212, year = {2017}, author = {Merow, C and Bois, ST and Allen, JM and Xie, Y and Silander, JA}, title = {Climate change both facilitates and inhibits invasive plant ranges in New England.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {16}, pages = {E3276-E3284}, pmid = {28348212}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Berberis/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Brassicaceae/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Ecosystem ; *Introduced Species ; Models, Theoretical ; New England ; }, abstract = {Forecasting ecological responses to climate change, invasion, and their interaction must rely on understanding underlying mechanisms. However, such forecasts require extrapolation into new locations and environments. We linked demography and environment using experimental biogeography to forecast invasive and native species' potential ranges under present and future climate in New England, United States to overcome issues of extrapolation in novel environments. We studied two potentially nonequilibrium invasive plants' distributions, Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) and Berberis thunbergii (Japanese barberry), each paired with their native ecological analogs to better understand demographic drivers of invasions. Our models predict that climate change will considerably reduce establishment of a currently prolific invader (A. petiolata) throughout New England driven by poor demographic performance in warmer climates. In contrast, invasion of B. thunbergii will be facilitated because of higher growth and germination in warmer climates, with higher likelihood to establish farther north and in closed canopy habitats in the south. Invasion success is in high fecundity for both invasive species and demographic compensation for Apetiolata relative to native analogs. For A. petiolata, simulations suggest that eradication efforts would require unrealistic efficiency; hence, management should focus on inhibiting spread into colder, currently unoccupied areas, understanding source-sink dynamics, and understanding community dynamics should A. petiolata (which is allelopathic) decline. Our results-based on considerable differences with correlative occurrence models typically used for such biogeographic forecasts-suggest the urgency of incorporating mechanism into range forecasting and invasion management to understand how climate change may alter current invasion patterns.}, }
@article {pmid28345645, year = {2017}, author = {Mann, ME and Rahmstorf, S and Kornhuber, K and Steinman, BA and Miller, SK and Coumou, D}, title = {Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {45242}, pmid = {28345645}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.}, }
@article {pmid28342661, year = {2017}, author = {Liang, L and Gong, P}, title = {Climate change and human infectious diseases: A synthesis of research findings from global and spatio-temporal perspectives.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {103}, number = {}, pages = {99-108}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2017.03.011}, pmid = {28342661}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/classification ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The life cycles and transmission of most infectious agents are inextricably linked with climate. In spite of a growing level of interest and progress in determining climate change effects on infectious disease, the debate on the potential health outcomes remains polarizing, which is partly attributable to the varying effects of climate change, different types of pathogen-host systems, and spatio-temporal scales. We summarize the published evidence and show that over the past few decades, the reported negative or uncertain responses of infectious diseases to climate change has been growing. A feature of the research tendency is the focus on temperature and insect-borne diseases at the local and decadal scale. Geographically, regions experiencing higher temperature anomalies have been given more research attention; unfortunately, the Earth's most vulnerable regions to climate variability and extreme events have been less studied. From local to global scales, agreements on the response of infectious diseases to climate change tend to converge. So far, an abundance of findings have been based on statistical methods, with the number of mechanistic studies slowly growing. Research gaps and trends identified in this study should be addressed in the future.}, }
@article {pmid28340594, year = {2017}, author = {McIntyre, S and Rangel, EF and Ready, PD and Carvalho, BM}, title = {Species-specific ecological niche modelling predicts different range contractions for Lutzomyia intermedia and a related vector of Leishmania braziliensis following climate change in South America.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {157}, pmid = {28340594}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Insect Vectors ; Models, Theoretical ; Psychodidae/*growth &amp; development ; South America ; Spatial Analysis ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Before 1996 the phlebotomine sand fly Lutzomyia neivai was usually treated as a synonym of the morphologically similar Lutzomyia intermedia, which has long been considered a vector of Leishmania braziliensis, the causative agent of much cutaneous leishmaniasis in South America. This report investigates the likely range changes of both sand fly species in response to a stabilisation climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and a high greenhouse gas emissions one (RCP8.5).<br><br>METHODS: Ecological niche modelling was used to identify areas of South America with climates currently suitable for each species, and then the future distributions of these climates were predicted based on climate change scenarios. Compared with the previous ecological niche model of L. intermedia (sensu lato) produced using the GARP algorithm in 2003, the current investigation modelled the two species separately, making use of verified presence records and additional records after 2001. Also, the new ensemble approach employed ecological niche modelling algorithms (including Maximum Entropy, Random Forests and Support Vector Machines) that have been widely adopted since 2003 and perform better than GARP, as well as using a more recent climate change model (HadGEM2) considered to have better performance at higher resolution than the earlier one (HadCM2).<br><br>RESULTS: Lutzomyia intermedia was shown to be the more tropical of the two species, with its climatic niche defined by higher annual mean temperatures and lower temperature seasonality, in contrast to the more subtropical L. neivai. These different latitudinal ranges explain the two species' predicted responses to climate change by 2050, with L. intermedia mostly contracting its range (except perhaps in northeast Brazil) and L. neivai mostly shifting its range southwards in Brazil and Argentina. This contradicts the findings of the 2003 report, which predicted more range expansion. The different findings can be explained by the improved data sets and modelling methods.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that climate change will not always lead to range expansion of disease vectors such as sand flies. Ecological niche models should be species specific, carefully selected and combined in an ensemble approach.}, }
@article {pmid28339121, year = {2017}, author = {Littlefield, CE and McRae, BH and Michalak, JL and Lawler, JJ and Carroll, C}, title = {Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {1397-1408}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12938}, pmid = {28339121}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Canada ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Geographic Mapping ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Dispersal ; United States ; }, abstract = {Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid28338970, year = {2017}, author = {Matyssek, R and Kozovits, AR and Wieser, G and King, J and Rennenberg, H}, title = {Woody-plant ecosystems under climate change and air pollution-response consistencies across zonobiomes?.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {37}, number = {6}, pages = {706-732}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpx009}, pmid = {28338970}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Animals ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Herbivory ; Insecta ; Ozone ; Rhizosphere ; Soil/chemistry ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Forests store the largest terrestrial pools of carbon (C), helping to stabilize the global climate system, yet are threatened by climate change (CC) and associated air pollution (AP, highlighting ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)). We adopt the perspective that CC-AP drivers and physiological impacts are universal, resulting in consistent stress responses of forest ecosystems across zonobiomes. Evidence supporting this viewpoint is presented from the literature on ecosystem gross/net primary productivity and water cycling. Responses to CC-AP are compared across evergreen/deciduous foliage types, discussing implications of nutrition and resource turnover at tree and ecosystem scales. The availability of data is extremely uneven across zonobiomes, yet unifying patterns of ecosystem response are discernable. Ecosystem warming results in trade-offs between respiration and biomass production, affecting high elevation forests more than in the lowland tropics and low-elevation temperate zone. Resilience to drought is modulated by tree size and species richness. Elevated O3 tends to counteract stimulation by elevated carbon dioxide (CO2). Biotic stress and genomic structure ultimately determine ecosystem responsiveness. Aggrading early- rather than mature late-successional communities respond to CO2 enhancement, whereas O3 affects North American and Eurasian tree species consistently under free-air fumigation. Insect herbivory is exacerbated by CC-AP in biome-specific ways. Rhizosphere responses reflect similar stand-level nutritional dynamics across zonobiomes, but are modulated by differences in tree-soil nutrient cycling between deciduous and evergreen systems, and natural versus anthropogenic nitrogen (N) oversupply. The hypothesis of consistency of forest responses to interacting CC-AP is supported by currently available data, establishing the precedent for a global network of long-term coordinated research sites across zonobiomes to simultaneously advance both bottom-up (e.g., mechanistic) and top-down (systems-level) understanding. This global, synthetic approach is needed because high biological plasticity and physiographic variation across individual ecosystems currently limit development of predictive models of forest responses to CC-AP. Integrated research on C and nutrient cycling, O3-vegetation interactions and water relations must target mechanisms' ecosystem responsiveness. Worldwide case studies must be subject to biostatistical exploration to elucidate overarching response patterns and synthesize the resulting empirical data through advanced modelling, in order to provide regionally coherent, yet globally integrated information in support of internationally coordinated decision-making and policy development.}, }
@article {pmid28334274, year = {2017}, author = {Zhang, CJ and Shen, JP and Sun, YF and Wang, JT and Zhang, LM and Yang, ZL and Han, HY and Wan, SQ and He, JZ}, title = {Interactive effects of multiple climate change factors on ammonia oxidizers and denitrifiers in a temperate steppe.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology ecology}, volume = {93}, number = {4}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1093/femsec/fix037}, pmid = {28334274}, issn = {1574-6941}, mesh = {Ammonia/*metabolism ; Archaea/genetics ; Bacteria/genetics ; Carbon ; China ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Denitrification ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Nitrogen/chemistry ; Oxidation-Reduction ; Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Soil/chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; Water ; }, abstract = {Global climate change could have profound effects on belowground microbial communities and subsequently affect soil biogeochemical processes. The interactive effects of multiple co-occurring climate change factors on microbially mediated processes are not well understood. A four-factorial field experiment with elevated CO2, watering, nitrogen (N) addition and night warming was conducted in a temperate steppe of northern China. Real-time polymerase chain reaction and terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism, combined with clone library techniques, were applied to examine the effects of those climate change factors on N-related microbial abundance and community composition. Only the abundance of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria significantly increased by nitrogen addition and decreased by watering. The interactions of watering × warming on the bacterial amoA community and warming × nitrogen addition on the nosZ community were found. Redundancy analysis indicated that the ammonia-oxidizing archaeal community was affected by total N and total carbon, while the community of bacterial amoA and nosZ were significantly affected by soil pH. According to a structural equation modeling analysis, climate change influenced net primary production indirectly by altering microbial abundance and activities. These results indicated that microbial responses to the combination of chronic global change tend to be smaller than expected from single-factor global change manipulations.}, }
@article {pmid28333743, year = {2017}, author = {Trombley, J and Chalupka, S and Anderko, L}, title = {Climate Change and Mental Health.}, journal = {The American journal of nursing}, volume = {117}, number = {4}, pages = {44-52}, doi = {10.1097/01.NAJ.0000515232.51795.fa}, pmid = {28333743}, issn = {1538-7488}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Mental Disorders/*etiology/*nursing ; *Mental Health ; United States ; }, abstract = {: Climate change is an enormous challenge for our communities, our country, and our world. Recently much attention has been paid to the physical impacts of climate change, including extreme heat events, droughts, extreme storms, and rising sea levels. However, much less attention has been paid to the psychological impacts. This article examines the likely psychological impacts of climate change, including anxiety, stress, and depression; increases in violence and aggression; and loss of community identity. Nurses can play a vital role in local and regional climate strategies by preparing their patients, health care facilities, and communities to effectively address the anticipated mental health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28332515, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Climate-change biology: Heat could lead to tiny mammals.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {543}, number = {7646}, pages = {467}, doi = {10.1038/543467b}, pmid = {28332515}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid28329925, year = {2017}, author = {Shi, XM}, title = {[Attaching importance to study on acute health risk assessment and adaptation of air pollution and climate change].}, journal = {Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi}, volume = {38}, number = {3}, pages = {280-282}, doi = {10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.03.002}, pmid = {28329925}, issn = {0254-6450}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; *Air Pollution ; China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Air pollution and climate change have become key environmental and public health problems around the world, which poses serious threat to human health. How to assess and mitigate the health risks and increase the adaptation of the public have become an urgent topic of research in this area. The six papers in this issue will provide important and rich information on design, analysis method, indicator selection and setting about acute health risk assessment and adaptation study of air pollution and climate change in China, reflecting the advanced conceptions of multi-center and area-specific study and multi-pollutant causing acute effect study. However, the number and type of the cities included in these studies were still limited. In future, researchers should further expand detailed multi-center and multi-area study coverage, conduct area specific predicting and early warning study and strengthen adaptation study.}, }
@article {pmid28329029, year = {2017}, author = {Gautret, P and Parola, P and Raoult, D}, title = {Global Warming and Global Decrease in Vector-Borne Disease Prevalence and Mortality.}, journal = {The Journal of infectious diseases}, volume = {215}, number = {4}, pages = {660-661}, doi = {10.1093/infdis/jix020}, pmid = {28329029}, issn = {1537-6613}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Global Warming ; Humans ; *Malaria ; Prevalence ; }, }
@article {pmid28328080, year = {2017}, author = {Ylä-Anttila, T and Swarnakar, P}, title = {Crowding-in: how Indian civil society organizations began mobilizing around climate change.}, journal = {The British journal of sociology}, volume = {68}, number = {2}, pages = {273-292}, doi = {10.1111/1468-4446.12251}, pmid = {28328080}, issn = {1468-4446}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Consumer Advocacy ; Databases, Factual ; Humans ; India ; *Interpersonal Relations ; Interprofessional Relations ; Interviews as Topic ; Mass Media ; Organizations, Nonprofit ; Politics ; *Social Networking ; Voluntary Programs ; }, abstract = {This paper argues that periodic waves of crowding-in to 'hot' issue fields are a recurring feature of how globally networked civil society organizations operate, especially in countries of the Global South. We elaborate on this argument through a study of Indian civil society mobilization around climate change. Five key mechanisms contribute to crowding-in processes: (1) the expansion of discursive opportunities; (2) the event effects of global climate change conferences; (3) the network effects created by expanding global civil society networks; (4) the adoption and innovation of action repertoires; and (5) global pressure effects creating new opportunities for civil society. Our findings contribute to the world society literature, with an account of the social mechanisms through which global institutions and political events affect national civil societies, and to the social movements literature by showing that developments in world society are essential contributors to national mobilization processes.}, }
@article {pmid28328067, year = {2017}, author = {Levy, O and Borchert, JD and Rusch, TW and Buckley, LB and Angilletta, MJ}, title = {Diminishing returns limit energetic costs of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {98}, number = {5}, pages = {1217-1228}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.1803}, pmid = {28328067}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Lizards/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Changes in the time available for organisms to maintain physiologically preferred temperatures (thermal opportunity) is a primary mechanism by which climate change impacts the fitness and population dynamics of organisms. Yet, it is unclear whether losses or gains in thermal opportunity result in proportional changes in rates of energy procurement and use. We experimentally quantified lizard food consumption and energy assimilation at different durations of thermal opportunity. We incorporated these data in an individual-based model of foraging and digestion in lizards to explore the implications of nonlinear responses to shifts in thermal opportunity across a wide geographic range. Our model predicts that shifts in thermal opportunities resulting from climate change alter energy intake primarily through digestion rather than feeding, because simulated lizards were able to fill their gut faster than they can digest their food. Moreover, since rates of energy assimilation decelerate with increasing thermal opportunity, shifts in daily energetic assimilation would depend on the previous opportunity for thermoregulation. In particular, the same changes in thermal opportunity will have little impact on lizards from warm locations, while having a large impact on lizards from cold locations where thermoregulation is possible for only a few hours each day. Energy expenditure followed spatial patterns in thermal opportunity, with greater annual energy expenditure occurring at warmer locations. Our model predicts that lizards will spend more energy under climate change by maintaining higher body temperatures and remaining active longer. However, the predicted changes in energy assimilation following climate change greatly exceeded the predicted increases in energy expenditure. Simple models, which assume constant rates of energy gain during activity, will potentially mislead efforts to understand and predict the biological impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28326768, year = {2017}, author = {Reinmuth-Selzle, K and Kampf, CJ and Lucas, K and Lang-Yona, N and Fröhlich-Nowoisky, J and Shiraiwa, M and Lakey, PSJ and Lai, S and Liu, F and Kunert, AT and Ziegler, K and Shen, F and Sgarbanti, R and Weber, B and Bellinghausen, I and Saloga, J and Weller, MG and Duschl, A and Schuppan, D and Pöschl, U}, title = {Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Allergies in the Anthropocene: Abundance, Interaction, and Modification of Allergens and Adjuvants.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {51}, number = {8}, pages = {4119-4141}, pmid = {28326768}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; Air Pollution ; Allergens/*immunology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity ; }, abstract = {Air pollution and climate change are potential drivers for the increasing burden of allergic diseases. The molecular mechanisms by which air pollutants and climate parameters may influence allergic diseases, however, are complex and elusive. This article provides an overview of physical, chemical and biological interactions between air pollution, climate change, allergens, adjuvants and the immune system, addressing how these interactions may promote the development of allergies. We reviewed and synthesized key findings from atmospheric, climate, and biomedical research. The current state of knowledge, open questions, and future research perspectives are outlined and discussed. The Anthropocene, as the present era of globally pervasive anthropogenic influence on planet Earth and, thus, on the human environment, is characterized by a strong increase of carbon dioxide, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and combustion- or traffic-related particulate matter in the atmosphere. These environmental factors can enhance the abundance and induce chemical modifications of allergens, increase oxidative stress in the human body, and skew the immune system toward allergic reactions. In particular, air pollutants can act as adjuvants and alter the immunogenicity of allergenic proteins, while climate change affects the atmospheric abundance and human exposure to bioaerosols and aeroallergens. To fully understand and effectively mitigate the adverse effects of air pollution and climate change on allergic diseases, several challenges remain to be resolved. Among these are the identification and quantification of immunochemical reaction pathways involving allergens and adjuvants under relevant environmental and physiological conditions.}, }
@article {pmid28325831, year = {2017}, author = {Johnson, JS and Gaddis, KD and Cairns, DM and Konganti, K and Krutovsky, KV}, title = {Landscape genomic insights into the historic migration of mountain hemlock in response to Holocene climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {104}, number = {3}, pages = {439-450}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1600262}, pmid = {28325831}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {Alaska ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Gene Flow ; *Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; *Genomics ; Genotype ; Hemlock/*genetics/physiology ; Linkage Disequilibrium ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Trees ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Untangling alternative historic dispersal pathways in long-lived tree species is critical to better understand how temperate tree species may respond to climatic change. However, disentangling these alternative pathways is often difficult. Emerging genomic technologies and landscape genetics techniques improve our ability to assess these pathways in natural systems. We address the question to what degree have microrefugial patches and long-distance dispersal been responsible for the colonization of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) on the Alaskan Kenai Peninsula.<br><br>METHODS: We used double-digest restriction-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) to identify genetic variants across eight mountain hemlock sample sites on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. We assessed genetic diversity and linkage disequilibrium using landscape and population genetics approaches. Alternative historic dispersal pathways were assessed using discriminant analysis of principle components and electrical circuit theory.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: A combination of decreasing diversity, high gene flow, and landscape connectivity indicates that mountain hemlock colonization on the Kenai Peninsula is the result of long-distance dispersal. We found that contemporary climate best explained gene flow patterns and that isolation by resistance was a better model explaining genetic variation than isolation by distance.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the conclusion that mountain hemlock colonization is the result of several long-distance dispersal events following Pleistocene glaciation. The high dispersal capability suggests that mountain hemlock may be able to respond to future climate change and expand its range as new habitat opens along its northern distribution.}, }
@article {pmid28325594, year = {2017}, author = {Summers, JC and Kurek, J and Rühland, KM and Neville, EE and Smol, JP}, title = {Assessment of multi-trophic changes in a shallow boreal lake simultaneously exposed to climate change and aerial deposition of contaminants from the Athabasca Oil Sands Region, Canada.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {592}, number = {}, pages = {573-583}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.079}, pmid = {28325594}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Alberta ; Animals ; *Biota ; Canada ; Chironomidae ; Cladocera ; *Climate Change ; Diatoms ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Geologic Sediments ; *Lakes ; *Oil and Gas Fields ; Water Pollutants, Chemical ; }, abstract = {The Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) has been intensely developed for industrial bitumen extraction and upgrading since the 1980s. A paucity of environmental monitoring prior to development raises questions about baseline conditions in freshwater systems in the region and ecological responses to industrial activities. Further, climatic changes prompt questions about the relative roles of climate and industry in shaping aquatic ecosystems through time. We use aquatic bioindicators from multiple trophic levels, concentrations of petrogenic contaminants (dibenzothiophenes), and spectrally-inferred chlorophyll-a preserved in well-dated sediments of a closed-basin, shallow lake ~50km away from the main area of industry, in conjunction with climate observations, to assess how the biotic assemblages of a typical AOSR lake have changed during the past ~75years. We examine the contributions of the area's stressors in structuring aquatic communities. Increases in sedimentary measures of petrogenic contaminants provide clear evidence of aerial contaminant deposition from local industry since its establishment, while climate records demonstrate consistent warming and a recent period of reduced precipitation. Quantitative comparisons of biological assemblages from before and after the establishment of regional industry find significant (p<0.05) differences; however, the magnitude and overall timing of the changes are not consistent with a threshold-type shift in response to the onset of regional industry. Rather, biotic assemblages from multiple trophic levels suggest transitions to an increasingly complex benthic environment and relatively warmer waters, which, like the increasing trends in inferred primary production, are consistent with a changing climate. These findings highlight the important role of climate conditions in regulating primary production and structuring aquatic communities in these shallow systems.}, }
@article {pmid28325593, year = {2017}, author = {Albiac, J and Kahil, T and Notivol, E and Calvo, E}, title = {Agriculture and climate change: Potential for mitigation in Spain.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {592}, number = {}, pages = {495-502}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.110}, pmid = {28325593}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Agriculture and forestry activities are one of the many sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but they are also sources of low-cost opportunities to mitigate these emissions compared to other economic sectors. This paper provides a first estimate of the potential for mitigation in the whole Spanish agriculture. A set of mitigation measures are selected for their cost-effectiveness and abatement potential and an efficient mix of these measures is identified with reference to a social cost of carbon of 40 €/tCO2e. This mix of measures includes adjusting crop fertilization and managing forests for carbon sequestration. Results indicate that by using the efficient mix of mitigation measures the annual abatement potential could reach 10 million tCO2e, which represents 28% of current agricultural emissions in Spain. This potential could further increase if the social cost of carbon rises covering the costs of applying manure to crops. Results indicate also that economic instruments such as input and emission taxes could be only ancillary measures to address mitigation in agriculture. These findings can be used to support the mitigation efforts in Spain and guide policymakers in the design of country-level mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid28325173, year = {2017}, author = {Galaktionov, KV}, title = {Patterns and processes influencing helminth parasites of Arctic coastal communities during climate change.}, journal = {Journal of helminthology}, volume = {91}, number = {4}, pages = {387-408}, doi = {10.1017/S0022149X17000232}, pmid = {28325173}, issn = {1475-2697}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Bird Diseases/*epidemiology/*parasitology ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; Helminthiasis, Animal/*epidemiology/*parasitology ; Helminths/*classification/*isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {This review analyses the scarce available data on biodiversity and transmission of helminths in Arctic coastal ecosystems and the potential impact of climate changes on them. The focus is on the helminths of seabirds, dominant parasites in coastal ecosystems. Their fauna in the Arctic is depauperate because of the lack of suitable intermediate hosts and unfavourable conditions for species with free-living larvae. An increasing proportion of crustaceans in the diet of Arctic seabirds would result in a higher infection intensity of cestodes and acanthocephalans, and may also promote the infection of seabirds with non-specific helminths. In this way, the latter may find favourable conditions for colonization of new hosts. Climate changes may alter the composition of the helminth fauna, their infection levels in hosts and ways of transmission in coastal communities. Immigration of boreal invertebrates and fish into Arctic seas may allow the circulation of helminths using them as intermediate hosts. Changing migratory routes of animals would alter the distribution of their parasites, facilitating, in particular, their trans-Arctic transfer. Prolongation of the seasonal 'transmission window' may increase the parasitic load on host populations. Changes in Arctic marine food webs would have an overriding influence on the helminths' circulation. This process may be influenced by the predicted decreased of salinity in Arctic seas, increased storm activity, coastal erosion, ocean acidification, decline of Arctic ice, etc. Greater parasitological research efforts are needed to assess the influence of factors related to Arctic climate change on the transmission of helminths.}, }
@article {pmid28324256, year = {2017}, author = {Xu, X and Liu, X and Li, Y and Ran, Y and Liu, Y and Zhang, Q and Li, Z and He, Y and Xu, J and Di, H}, title = {Legacy effects of simulated short-term climate change on ammonia oxidisers, denitrifiers, and nitrous oxide emissions in an acid soil.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {24}, number = {12}, pages = {11639-11649}, pmid = {28324256}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Ammonia/*chemistry ; Bacteria/classification/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Genes, Bacterial ; Nitrous Oxide/*chemistry ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Although the effect of simulated climate change on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and on associated microbial communities has been reported, it is not well understood if these effects are short-lived or long-lasting. Here, we conducted a field study to determine the interactive effects of simulated warmer and drier conditions on nitrifier and denitrifier communities and N2O emissions in an acidic soil and the longevity of the effects. A warmer (+2.3 °C) and drier climate (-7.4% soil moisture content) was created with greenhouses. The variation of microbial population abundance and community structure of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), bacteria (AOB), and denitrifiers (nirK/S, nosZ) were determined using real-time PCR and high-throughput sequencing. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions under the greenhouse following urea application significantly increased N2O emissions. There was also a moderate legacy effect on the N2O emissions when the greenhouses were removed in the urea treatment, although this effect only lasted a short period of time (about 60 days). The simulated climate change conditions changed the composition of AOA with the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage increasing significantly. The abundance of all the functional denitrifier genes decreased significantly under the simulated climate change conditions and the legacy effect, after the removal of greenhouses, significantly increased the abundance of AOB, AOA (mainly the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage), and nirK and nosZ genes in the urea-treated soil. In general, the effect of the simulated climate change was short-lived, with the denitrifier communities being able to return to ambient levels after a period of adaptation to ambient conditions. Therefore, the legacy effect of simulated short-time climate change conditions on the ammonia oxidizer and denitrifier communities and N2O emissions were temporary and once the conditions were removed, the microbial communities were able to adapt to the ambient conditions.}, }
@article {pmid28322852, year = {2017}, author = {Putti, FF and Filho, LRAG and Gabriel, CPC and Neto, AB and Bonini, CDSB and Rodrigues Dos Reis, A}, title = {A Fuzzy mathematical model to estimate the effects of global warming on the vitality of Laelia purpurata orchids.}, journal = {Mathematical biosciences}, volume = {288}, number = {}, pages = {124-129}, doi = {10.1016/j.mbs.2017.03.005}, pmid = {28322852}, issn = {1879-3134}, mesh = {Brazil ; Crop Production ; Darkness ; *Fuzzy Logic ; *Global Warming ; Humidity ; Orchidaceae/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to develop a fuzzy mathematical model to estimate the impacts of global warming on the vitality of Laelia purpurata growing in different Brazilian environmental conditions. In order to develop the mathematical model was considered as intrinsic factors the parameters: temperature, humidity and shade conditions to determine the vitality of plants. Fuzzy model results could accurately predict the optimal conditions for cultivation of Laelia purpurata in several sites of Brazil. Based on fuzzy model results, we found that higher temperatures and lacking of properly shading can reduce the vitality of orchids. Fuzzy mathematical model could precisely detect the effect of higher temperatures causing damages on vitality of plants as a consequence of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid28322258, year = {2017}, author = {Yanai, Y and Iwata, Y and Hirota, T}, title = {Optimum soil frost depth to alleviate climate change effects in cold region agriculture.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {44860}, doi = {10.1038/srep44860}, pmid = {28322258}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {On-farm soil frost control has been used for the management of volunteer potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), a serious weed problem caused by climate change, in northern Japan. Deep soil frost penetration is necessary for the effective eradication of unharvested small potato tubers; however, this process can delay soil thaw and increase soil wetting in spring, thereby delaying agricultural activity initiation and increasing nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Conversely, shallow soil frost development helps over-wintering of unharvested potato tubers and nitrate leaching from surface soil owing to the periodic infiltration of snowmelt water. In this study, we synthesised on-farm snow cover manipulation experiments to determine the optimum soil frost depth that can eradicate unharvested potato tubers without affecting agricultural activity initiation while minimising N pollution from agricultural soil. The optimum soil frost depth was estimated to be 0.28-0.33 m on the basis of the annual maximum soil frost depth. Soil frost control is a promising practice to alleviate climate change effects on agriculture in cold regions, which was initiated by local farmers and further promoted by national and local research institutes.}, }
@article {pmid28321366, year = {2017}, author = {Rasmussen, K and Thyrring, J and Muscarella, R and Borchsenius, F}, title = {Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {e3104}, pmid = {28321366}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in 'high allergy risk' (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27-100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid28319700, year = {2017}, author = {Olaya-Abril, A and Parras-Alcántara, L and Lozano-García, B and Obregón-Romero, R}, title = {Soil organic carbon distribution in Mediterranean areas under a climate change scenario via multiple linear regression analysis.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {592}, number = {}, pages = {134-143}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.021}, pmid = {28319700}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Over time, the interest on soil studies has increased due to its role in carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems, which could contribute to decreasing atmospheric CO2 rates. In many studies, independent variables were related to soil organic carbon (SOC) alone, however, the contribution degree of each variable with the experimentally determined SOC content were not considered. In this study, samples from 612 soil profiles were obtained in a natural protected (Red Natura 2000) of Sierra Morena (Mediterranean area, South Spain), considering only the topsoil 0-25cm, for better comparison between results. 24 independent variables were used to define it relationship with SOC content. Subsequently, using a multiple linear regression analysis, the effects of these variables on the SOC correlation was considered. Finally, the best parameters determined with the regression analysis were used in a climatic change scenario. The model indicated that SOC in a future scenario of climate change depends on average temperature of coldest quarter (41.9%), average temperature of warmest quarter (34.5%), annual precipitation (22.2%) and annual average temperature (1.3%). When the current and future situations were compared, the SOC content in the study area was reduced a 35.4%, and a trend towards migration to higher latitude and altitude was observed.}, }
@article {pmid28319190, year = {2017}, author = {Milfont, TL and Wilson, MS and Sibley, CG}, title = {The public's belief in climate change and its human cause are increasing over time.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {e0174246}, pmid = {28319190}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Models, Statistical ; New Zealand ; *Public Opinion ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Polls examining public opinion on the subject of climate change are now commonplace, and one-off public opinion polls provide a snapshot of citizen's opinions that can inform policy and communication strategies. However, cross-sectional polls do not track opinions over time, thus making it impossible to ascertain whether key climate change beliefs held by the same group of individuals are changing or not. Here we examine the extent to which individual's level of agreement with two key beliefs ("climate change is real" and "climate change is caused by humans") remain stable or increase/decrease over a six-year period in New Zealand using latent growth curve modelling (n = 10,436). Data were drawn from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study, a probabilistic national panel study, and indicated that levels of agreement to both beliefs have steadily increased over the 2009-2015 period. Given that climate change beliefs and concerns are key predictors of climate change action, our findings suggest that a combination of targeted endeavors, as well as serendipitous events, may successfully convey the emergency of the issue.}, }
@article {pmid28318131, year = {2017}, author = {McLaughlin, BC and Ackerly, DD and Klos, PZ and Natali, J and Dawson, TE and Thompson, SE}, title = {Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {2941-2961}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13629}, pmid = {28318131}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {California ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Hydrology ; Plants ; *Refugium ; }, abstract = {Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow.}, }
@article {pmid28303652, year = {2017}, author = {Ford, KR and Harrington, CA and St Clair, JB}, title = {Photoperiod cues and patterns of genetic variation limit phenological responses to climate change in warm parts of species' range: Modeling diameter-growth cessation in coast Douglas-fir.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {3348-3362}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13690}, pmid = {28303652}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Genetic Variation ; Photoperiod ; Pseudotsuga/*genetics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The phenology of diameter-growth cessation in trees will likely play a key role in mediating species and ecosystem responses to climate change. A common expectation is that warming will delay cessation, but the environmental and genetic influences on this process are poorly understood. We modeled the effects of temperature, photoperiod, and seed-source climate on diameter-growth-cessation timing in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree) using high-frequency growth measurements across broad environmental gradients for a range of genotypes from different seed sources. Our model suggests that cool temperatures or short photoperiods can induce cessation in autumn. At cool locations (high latitude and elevation), cessation seems to be induced primarily by low temperatures in early autumn (under relatively long photoperiods), so warming will likely delay cessation and extend the growing season. But at warm locations (low latitude or elevation), cessation seems to be induced primarily by short photoperiods later in autumn, so warming will likely lead to only slight extensions of the growing season, reflecting photoperiod limitations on phenological shifts. Trees from seed sources experiencing frequent frosts in autumn or early winter tended to cease growth earlier in the autumn, potentially as an adaptation to avoid frost. Thus, gene flow into populations in warm locations with little frost will likely have limited potential to delay mean cessation dates because these populations already cease growth relatively late. In addition, data from an abnormal heat wave suggested that very high temperatures during long photoperiods in early summer might also induce cessation. Climate change could make these conditions more common in warm locations, leading to much earlier cessation. Thus, photoperiod cues, patterns of genetic variation, and summer heat waves could limit the capacity of coast Douglas-fir to extend its growing season in response to climate change in the warm parts of its range.}, }
@article {pmid28302616, year = {2017}, author = {McCarthy, M}, title = {Climate change is harming Americans' health, US doctors warn.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {356}, number = {}, pages = {j1369}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.j1369}, pmid = {28302616}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid28301603, year = {2017}, author = {Dewes, CF and Rangwala, I and Barsugli, JJ and Hobbins, MT and Kumar, S}, title = {Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {e0174045}, pmid = {28301603}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Several studies have projected increases in drought severity, extent and duration in many parts of the world under climate change. We examine sources of uncertainty arising from the methodological choices for the assessment of future drought risk in the continental US (CONUS). One such uncertainty is in the climate models' expression of evaporative demand (E0), which is not a direct climate model output but has been traditionally estimated using several different formulations. Here we analyze daily output from two CMIP5 GCMs to evaluate how differences in E0 formulation, treatment of meteorological driving data, choice of GCM, and standardization of time series influence the estimation of E0. These methodological choices yield different assessments of spatio-temporal variability in E0 and different trends in 21st century drought risk. First, we estimate E0 using three widely used E0 formulations: Penman-Monteith; Hargreaves-Samani; and Priestley-Taylor. Our analysis, which primarily focuses on the May-September warm-season period, shows that E0 climatology and its spatial pattern differ substantially between these three formulations. Overall, we find higher magnitudes of E0 and its interannual variability using Penman-Monteith, in particular for regions like the Great Plains and southwestern US where E0 is strongly influenced by variations in wind and relative humidity. When examining projected changes in E0 during the 21st century, there are also large differences among the three formulations, particularly the Penman-Monteith relative to the other two formulations. The 21st century E0 trends, particularly in percent change and standardized anomalies of E0, are found to be sensitive to the long-term mean value and the amplitude of interannual variability, i.e. if the magnitude of E0 and its interannual variability are relatively low for a particular E0 formulation, then the normalized or standardized 21st century trend based on that formulation is amplified relative to other formulations. This is the case for the use of Hargreaves-Samani and Priestley-Taylor, where future E0 trends are comparatively much larger than for Penman-Monteith. When comparing Penman-Monteith E0 responses between different choices of input variables related to wind speed, surface roughness, and net radiation, we found differences in E0 trends, although these choices had a much smaller influence on E0 trends than did the E0 formulation choices. These methodological choices and specific climate model selection, also have a large influence on the estimation of trends in standardized drought indices used for drought assessment operationally. We find that standardization tends to amplify divergences between the E0 trends calculated using different E0 formulations, because standardization is sensitive to both the climatology and amplitude of interannual variability of E0. For different methodological choices and GCM output considered in estimating E0, we examine potential sources of uncertainty in 21st century trends in the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) over selected regions of the CONUS to demonstrate the practical implications of these methodological choices for the quantification of drought risk under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28301560, year = {2017}, author = {Timpane-Padgham, BL and Beechie, T and Klinger, T}, title = {A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {e0173812}, pmid = {28301560}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecology ; United States ; }, abstract = {Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9), population- (6), community- (7), ecosystem- (7), or process-level attributes (16). Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1) including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2) considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3) certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to confer resilience because they apply to a wide variety of species and ecosystems. We propose that identifying sources of ecological resilience is a critical step in restoring ecosystems in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid28300113, year = {2017}, author = {Hughes, TP and Kerry, JT and Álvarez-Noriega, M and Álvarez-Romero, JG and Anderson, KD and Baird, AH and Babcock, RC and Beger, M and Bellwood, DR and Berkelmans, R and Bridge, TC and Butler, IR and Byrne, M and Cantin, NE and Comeau, S and Connolly, SR and Cumming, GS and Dalton, SJ and Diaz-Pulido, G and Eakin, CM and Figueira, WF and Gilmour, JP and Harrison, HB and Heron, SF and Hoey, AS and Hobbs, JA and Hoogenboom, MO and Kennedy, EV and Kuo, CY and Lough, JM and Lowe, RJ and Liu, G and McCulloch, MT and Malcolm, HA and McWilliam, MJ and Pandolfi, JM and Pears, RJ and Pratchett, MS and Schoepf, V and Simpson, T and Skirving, WJ and Sommer, B and Torda, G and Wachenfeld, DR and Willis, BL and Wilson, SK}, title = {Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {543}, number = {7645}, pages = {373-377}, doi = {10.1038/nature21707}, pmid = {28300113}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*metabolism ; Australia ; Chlorophyll/metabolism ; Chlorophyll A ; Conservation of Natural Resources/trends ; *Coral Reefs ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Seawater/analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.}, }
@article {pmid28300108, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Climate change: Arctic set for rainy future.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {543}, number = {7645}, pages = {291}, doi = {10.1038/543291e}, pmid = {28300108}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid28300102, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Climate change: Warming poses risk to US farming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {543}, number = {7645}, pages = {290-291}, doi = {10.1038/543290d}, pmid = {28300102}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid28299851, year = {2017}, author = {Anderko, L}, title = {Climate Change and Public Health: Nurses Can Make a Difference.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {34}, number = {2}, pages = {99-100}, doi = {10.1111/phn.12316}, pmid = {28299851}, issn = {1525-1446}, }
@article {pmid28295947, year = {2017}, author = {Garssen, AG and Baattrup-Pedersen, A and Riis, T and Raven, BM and Hoffman, CC and Verhoeven, JTA and Soons, MB}, title = {Effects of increased flooding on riparian vegetation: Field experiments simulating climate change along five European lowland streams.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {3052-3063}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13687}, pmid = {28295947}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Floods ; Plants ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {In many parts of the world, the magnitude and frequency of cold-season precipitation are expected to increase in the near future. This will result in an increased magnitude and duration of winter and spring flooding by rain-fed streams and rivers. Such climate-driven increases in flooding are likely to affect riparian plant communities, but future vegetation changes are hard to predict due to current lack of data. To fill this knowledge gap, we experimentally modified the hydrology of five streams across three countries in north-western Europe during late winter/early spring over a period of 3 years. We assessed the responses in riparian plant species richness, biomass, plant-available nitrogen and phosphorus and seed deposition to increased flooding depth (+18 cm on average at the lowest positions along the riparian gradient) and prolonged flooding duration (6 weeks on average). After 3 years of increased flooding, there was an overall decline in riparian species richness, while riparian plant biomass increased. Extractable soil nitrogen and phosphorus also increased and are likely to have contributed to the increased biomass. Increased flooding resulted in the arrival of more seeds of additional species to the riparian zone, thereby potentially facilitating the shifts in riparian plant species composition we observed. The results of our concerted experimental effort demonstrate that changes in stream riparian plant communities can occur rapidly following increased winter flooding, leading to strong reductions in plant species diversity.}, }
@article {pmid28294575, year = {2018}, author = {Klockmann, M and Wallmeyer, L and Fischer, K}, title = {Variation in adult stress resistance does not explain vulnerability to climate change in copper butterflies.}, journal = {Insect science}, volume = {25}, number = {5}, pages = {894-904}, doi = {10.1111/1744-7917.12456}, pmid = {28294575}, issn = {1744-7917}, support = {DFG Fi 846/8-1//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; DFG GRK2010//Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/ ; }, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Belgium ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Estonia ; Germany ; Species Specificity ; Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. However, although many species clearly suffer from ongoing climate change, others benefit from it, for example, by showing range expansions. However, which specific features determine a species' vulnerability to climate change? Phenotypic plasticity, which has been described as the first line of defence against environmental change, may be of utmost importance here. Against this background, we here compare plasticity in stress tolerance in 3 copper butterfly species, which differ arguably in their vulnerability to climate change. Specifically, we investigated heat, cold and desiccation resistance after acclimatization to different temperatures in the adult stage. We demonstrate that acclimation at a higher temperature increased heat but decreased cold tolerance and desiccation resistance. Contrary to our predictions, species did not show pronounced variation in stress resistance, though plastic capacities in temperature stress resistance did vary across species. Overall, our results seemed to reflect population-rather than species-specific patterns. We conclude that the geographical origin of the populations used should be considered even in comparative studies. However, our results suggest that, in the 3 species studied here, vulnerability to climate change is not in the first place determined by stress resistance in the adult stage. As entomological studies focus all too often on adults only, we argue that more research effort should be dedicated to other developmental stages when trying to understand insect responses to environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid28293288, year = {2017}, author = {Junqueira, TL and Chagas, MF and Gouveia, VLR and Rezende, MCAF and Watanabe, MDB and Jesus, CDF and Cavalett, O and Milanez, AY and Bonomi, A}, title = {Techno-economic analysis and climate change impacts of sugarcane biorefineries considering different time horizons.}, journal = {Biotechnology for biofuels}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {50}, pmid = {28293288}, issn = {1754-6834}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Ethanol production from lignocellulosic feedstocks (also known as 2nd generation or 2G ethanol process) presents a great potential for reducing both ethanol production costs and climate change impacts since agricultural residues and dedicated energy crops are used as feedstock. This study aimed at the quantification of the economic and environmental impacts considering the current and future scenarios of sugarcane biorefineries taking into account not only the improvements of the industrial process but also of biomass production systems. Technology assumptions and scenarios setup were supported by main companies and stakeholders, involved in the lignocellulosic ethanol production chain from Brazil and abroad. For instance, scenarios considered higher efficiencies and lower residence times for pretreatment, enzymatic hydrolysis, and fermentation (including pentoses fermentation); higher sugarcane yields; and introduction of energy cane (a high fiber variety of cane).<br><br>RESULTS: Ethanol production costs were estimated for different time horizons. In the short term, 2G ethanol presents higher costs compared to 1st generation (1G) ethanol. However, in the long term, 2G ethanol is more competitive, presenting remarkable lower production cost than 1G ethanol, even considering some uncertainties regarding technology and market aspects. In addition, environmental assessment showed that both 1G (in the medium and long term) and 2G ethanol can reduce climate change impacts by more than 80% when compared to gasoline.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This work showed the great potential of 2G ethanol production in terms of economic and environmental aspects. These results can support new research programs and public policies designed to stimulate both production and consumption of 2G ethanol in Brazil, accelerating the path along the learning curve. Some examples of mechanisms include: incentives to the establishment of local equipment and enzyme suppliers; and specific funding programs for the development and use of energy cane.}, }
@article {pmid28286602, year = {2017}, author = {D'Amato, G and Vitale, C and Rosario, N and Neto, HJC and Chong-Silva, DC and Mendonça, F and Perini, J and Landgraf, L and Solé, D and Sánchez-Borges, M and Ansotegui, I and D'Amato, M}, title = {Climate change, allergy and asthma, and the role of tropical forests.}, journal = {The World Allergy Organization journal}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {11}, pmid = {28286602}, issn = {1939-4551}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Tropical forests cover less than 10 per cent of all land area (1.8 × 107 km[2]) and over half of the tropical-forest area (1.1 × 107 Km[2]) is represented by humid tropical forests (also called tropical rainforests). The Amazon basin contains the largest rainforest on Earth, almost 5.8 million km[2], and occupies about 40% of South America; more than 60% of the basin is located in Brazil and the rest in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname and Venezuela. Over the past decade the positive role of tropical rainforests in capturing large amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has been demonstrated. In response to the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, tropical forests act as a global carbon sink.<br><br>MAIN BODY: Accumulation of carbon in the tropical terrestrial biosphere strongly contributes to slowing the rate of increase of CO2 into the atmosphere, thus resulting in the reduction of greenhouse gas effect. Tropical rainforests have been estimated to account for 32-36% of terrestrial Net Primary Productivity (NPP) that is the difference between total forest photosynthesis and plant respiration. Tropical rainforests have been acting as a strong carbon sink in this way for decades. However, over the past years, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and especially CO2, in the atmosphere have significantly affected the net carbon balance of tropical rainforests, and have warmed the planet substantially driving climate changes through more severe and prolonged heat waves, variability in temperature, increased air pollution, forest fires, droughts, and floods. The role of tropical forests in mitigating climate change is therefore critical. Over the past 30&#xa0;years almost 600,000&#xa0;km[2] have been deforested in Brazil alone due to the rapid development of Amazonia, this is the reason why currently the region is one of the 'hotspots' of global environmental change on the planet.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Deforestation represents the second largest anthropogenic source of CO2 to the atmosphere, after fossil fuel combustion. There are many causes of deforestation, including socioeconomic and natural factors, such as clear-cutting for agriculture, ranching and development, unsustainable logging for timber, as well as droughts, fires and degradation due to climate change. About natural causes of forest degradation, in the context of the Amazon, the major agent of change in the forest ecosystem would most likely be decreased dry-season precipitation. Of the 23 global climate models employed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their 2007 report, 50-70% predict a substantial (above 20%) reduction of dry-season rainfall in eastern Amazonia under mid-range greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, 40% in central Amazonia and 20% in the west. While annual carbon emissions from fossil-fuel combustion have been continually increasing since 1960s, historical trends of deforestation and associated carbon emissions have remained poorly understood.}, }
@article {pmid28285853, year = {2017}, author = {Jambrina-Enríquez, M and Recio, C and Vega, JC and Valero-Garcés, B}, title = {Tracking climate change in oligotrophic mountain lakes: Recent hydrology and productivity synergies in Lago de Sanabria (NW Iberian Peninsula).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {590-591}, number = {}, pages = {579-591}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.231}, pmid = {28285853}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Mountain lakes are particularly sensitive to global change as their oligotrophic conditions may be rapidly altered after reaching an ecological threshold, due to increasing human impact and climate change. Sanabria Lake, the largest mountain lake in the Iberian Peninsula and with a recent history of increased human impact in its watershed, provides an opportunity to investigate recent trends in an oligotrophic, hydrologically-open mountain lake, and their relationship with climate, hydrological variability and human pressure. We conducted the first systematic and detailed survey of stable isotope compositions of Sanabria Lake and Tera River together with limnological analyses during 2009-2011. δ[18]Olakewater and δDlakewater seasonal fluctuations are strongly linked to river discharges, and follow the monthly mean isotopic composition of precipitation, which is controlled by NAO dynamics. δ[13]CPOM and δ[13]CDIC revealed higher contribution of allochthonous organic matter in winter and spring due to higher river inflow and lower primary productivity. Increased phytoplankton biomass in late summer correlated significantly with higher pH and Chl-a, and higher nutrient input and lower river inflow. However, the small δ[13]CPOM seasonal amplitude underlines the stability of the oligotrophic conditions and the isotopic variation in POM and DIC reflect small seasonal fluctuations mostly as a consequence of strong throughflow. The stability of hydrology and productivity patterns is consistent with Holocene and last millennium reconstructions of past limnological changes in Sanabria Lake. The results of this study indicate that trophic state in this hydrologically-open mountain lake is strongly controlled by climate variability, but recent changes in human-land uses have increased sediment delivery and nutrients supply to the lake and have to be considered for management policies. Monitoring surveys including isotope techniques provide snapshots of modern isotope variability, and serve as a benchmark for assessing the environmental impacts of future developments and long-term climate changes in mountain lakes.}, }
@article {pmid28284650, year = {2017}, author = {Lueking, AD and Cole, MW}, title = {Energy and mass balances related to climate change and remediation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {590-591}, number = {}, pages = {416-429}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.101}, pmid = {28284650}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The goal of this paper is to provide a forum for a broad interdisciplinary group of scientists and engineers to see how concepts of climate change, energy, and carbon remediation strategies are related to quite basic scientific principles. A secondary goal is to show relationships between general concepts in traditional science and engineering fields and to show how they are relevant to broader environmental concepts. This paper revisits Fourier's early mathematical derivation of the average temperature of the Earth from first principles, i.e. an energy balance common to chemical and environmental engineering. The work then uses the concept of mass balance to critically discuss various carbon remediation strategies. The work is of interest to traditional scientists/engineers, but also it is potentially useful as an educational document in advanced undergraduate science or engineering classes.}, }
@article {pmid28284643, year = {2017}, author = {Ferrarini, A and Alatalo, JM and Gustin, M}, title = {Climate change will seriously impact bird species dwelling above the treeline: A prospective study for the Italian Alps.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {590-591}, number = {}, pages = {686-694}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.027}, pmid = {28284643}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Italy ; Prospective Studies ; Trees ; }, abstract = {High mountain systems are predicted to be especially vulnerable to the impact of climate change, with the climatically-constrained tree limit rapidly shifted upslope. In turn, the impact of upward treeline migration on mountain-dwelling bird species is expected to significantly reduce habitat suitability. We developed the first projection of the expected climate-driven rise of the whole treeline (19,256km) of the Italian Alps. The study area extends over 20,700km[2], ranging over 550km in longitude and 320km in latitude. We then investigated how much the expected treeline rise will induce a) shrinking and shifting of the elevation range and b) loss in suitable habitat for the flagship species rock ptarmigan, an alpine bird species dwelling above the treeline and, similarly to many other alpine species, highly vulnerable to treeline rise. We also investigated the potential gain in suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan due to the climate-driven upshift in the uppermost thermal limit. At lower altitudes (1500-1600m a.s.l.), the average expected upshift in the current treeline resulted in 195, 274 and 354m over the short (2010-2039), medium (2040-2069) and long term (2070-2099) respectively. Above 2400m a.s.l., it was less than 30m even in the long term. Overall, during the three climate periods the extent of suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan above the current treeline is projected to decrease by 28.12%, 38.43% and 49.11% respectively. In contrast, the expected gain in suitable habitat due to the shift in the uppermost thermal limit will be severely restrained by the limited surface extension in the top portion of the Italian Alps. The presented approach can promote similar studies elsewhere in the globe, providing a regional perspective to the projection of climate change impact on bird species dwelling above the treeline.}, }
@article {pmid28284225, year = {2017}, author = {Jia, P and Chen, X and Chen, J and Lu, L and Liu, Q and Tan, X}, title = {How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {140}, pmid = {28284225}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {Aedes/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Animals ; Dengue/transmission ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus.<br><br>METHODS: The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5&#xa0;&#xb0;C at an interval of 0.5&#xa0;&#xb0;C in each warming pattern.<br><br>RESULTS: The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.}, }
@article {pmid28283983, year = {2017}, author = {Nguyen, T and Bajwa, AA and Navie, S and O'Donnell, C and Adkins, S}, title = {Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) and climate change: the effect of CO2 concentration, temperature, and water deficit on growth and reproduction of two biotypes.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {10727-10739}, pmid = {28283983}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Asteraceae/drug effects ; Australia ; Carbon Dioxide/pharmacology ; *Climate Change ; *Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change will have a considerable impact upon the processes that moderate weed invasion, in particular to that of parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.). This study evaluated the performance of two Australian biotypes of parthenium weed under a range of environmental conditions including soil moisture (100 and 50% of field capacity), atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration (390 and 550 ppm), and temperature (35/20 and 30/15 °C/day/night). Measurements were taken upon growth, reproductive output, seed biology (fill, viability and dormancy) and soil seed longevity. Parthenium weed growth and seed output were significantly increased under the elevated CO2 concentration (550 ppm) and in the cooler (30/15 °C) and wetter (field capacity) conditions. However, elevated CO2 concentration could not promote growth or seed output when the plants were grown under the warmer (35/20 °C) and wetter conditions. Warm temperatures accelerated the growth of parthenium weed, producing plants with greater height biomass but with a shorter life span. Warm temperatures also affected the reproductive output by promoting both seed production and fill, and promoting seed longevity. Dryer soil conditions (50% of field capacity) also promoted the reproductive output, but did not retain high seed fill or promote seed longevity. Therefore, the rising temperatures, the increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and the longer periods of drought predicted under climate change scenarios are likely to substantially enhance the growth and reproductive output of these two Australian parthenium weed biotypes. This may facilitate the further invasion of this noxious weed in tropical and sub-tropical natural and agro-ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid28283290, year = {2017}, author = {Turner, SWD and Ng, JY and Galelli, S}, title = {Examining global electricity supply vulnerability to climate change using a high-fidelity hydropower dam model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {590-591}, number = {}, pages = {663-675}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.022}, pmid = {28283290}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {An important and plausible impact of a changing global climate is altered power generation from hydroelectric dams. Here we project 21st century global hydropower production by forcing a coupled, global hydrological and dam model with three General Circulation Model (GCM) projections run under two emissions scenarios. Dams are simulated using a detailed model that accounts for plant specifications, storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry and realistic, optimized operations. We show that the inclusion of these features can have a non-trivial effect on the simulated response of hydropower production to changes in climate. Simulation results highlight substantial uncertainty in the direction of change in globally aggregated hydropower production (~-5 to +5% change in mean global production by the 2080s under a high emissions scenario, depending on GCM). Several clearly impacted hotspots are identified, the most prominent of which encompasses the Mediterranean countries in southern Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East. In this region, hydropower production is projected to be reduced by approximately 40% on average by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario. After accounting for each country's dependence on hydropower for meeting its current electricity demands, the Balkans countries emerge as the most vulnerable (~5-20% loss in total national electricity generation depending on country). On the flipside, a handful of countries in Scandinavia and central Asia are projected to reap a significant increase in total electrical production (~5-15%) without investing in new power generation facilities.}, }
@article {pmid28281687, year = {2017}, author = {Rutherford, WA and Painter, TH and Ferrenberg, S and Belnap, J and Okin, GS and Flagg, C and Reed, SC}, title = {Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {44188}, pmid = {28281687}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Drylands represent the planet's largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness-changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.}, }
@article {pmid28281157, year = {2017}, author = {Lawlor, R and Morley, H}, title = {Climate Change and Professional Responsibility: A Declaration of Helsinki for Engineers.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {1431-1452}, pmid = {28281157}, issn = {1471-5546}, support = {AH/L006650/1//Arts and Humanities Research Council/ ; }, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Codes of Ethics ; Engineering/*ethics ; Greenhouse Effect ; Helsinki Declaration ; Humans ; Industry ; *International Cooperation ; *Moral Obligations ; *Professionalism ; }, abstract = {In this paper, we argue that the professional engineering institutions ought to develop a Declaration of Climate Action. Climate change is a serious global problem, and the majority of greenhouse gas emissions come from industries that are enabled by engineers and represented by the engineering professional institutions. If the professional institutions take seriously the claim that a profession should be self-regulating, with codes of ethics that go beyond mere obedience to the law, and if they take their own ethical codes seriously, recognising their responsibility to the public and to future generations (and also recognising a duty of "responsible leadership"), the professional institutions ought to develop a declaration for engineers, addressing climate change. Our argument here is largely inspired by the history of the Declaration of Helsinki. The Declaration of Helsinki was created by the medical profession for the profession, and it held physicians to a higher standard of ethical conduct than was found in the legal framework of individual countries. Although it was not originally a legal document, the influence of the Declaration can be seen in the fact that it is now enshrined in law in a number of different countries. Thus, we argue that the engineering profession could, and should, play a significant role in the abatement of climate change by making changes within the profession. If the engineering profession sets strict standards for professional engineers, with sanctions for those who refuse to comply, this could have a significant impact in relation to our efforts to develop a coordinated response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28281063, year = {2017}, author = {Abbas, F and Hammad, HM and Fahad, S and Cerdà, A and Rizwan, M and Farhad, W and Ehsan, S and Bakhat, HF}, title = {Agroforestry: a sustainable environmental practice for carbon sequestration under the climate change scenarios-a review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {24}, number = {12}, pages = {11177-11191}, pmid = {28281063}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forestry ; Soil ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Agroforestry is a sustainable land use system with a promising potential to sequester atmospheric carbon into soil. This system of land use distinguishes itself from the other systems, such as sole crop cultivation and afforestation on croplands only through its potential to sequester higher amounts of carbon (in the above- and belowground tree biomass) than the aforementioned two systems. According to Kyoto protocol, agroforestry is recognized as an afforestation activity that, in addition to sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2) to soil, conserves biodiversity, protects cropland, works as a windbreak, and provides food and feed to human and livestock, pollen for honey bees, wood for fuel, and timber for shelters construction. Agroforestry is more attractive as a land use practice for the farming community worldwide instead of cropland and forestland management systems. This practice is a win-win situation for the farming community and for the environmental sustainability. This review presents agroforestry potential to counter the increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2 by sequestering it in above- and belowground biomass. The role of agroforestry in climate change mitigation worldwide might be recognized to its full potential by overcoming various financial, technical, and institutional barriers. Carbon sequestration in soil by various agricultural systems can be simulated by various models but literature lacks reports on validated models to quantify the agroforestry potential for carbon sequestration.}, }
@article {pmid28280565, year = {2017}, author = {Shefferson, RP and Mizuta, R and Hutchings, MJ}, title = {Predicting evolution in response to climate change: the example of sprouting probability in three dormancy-prone orchid species.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {160647}, pmid = {28280565}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Although many ecological properties of species respond to climate change, their evolutionary responses are poorly understood. Here, we use data from long-term demographic studies to predict evolutionary responses of three herbaceous perennial orchid species, Cypripedium parviflorum, C. candidum and Ophrys sphegodes, to predicted climate changes in the habitats they occupy. We focus on the evolution of sprouting probability, because all three species exhibit long-term vegetative dormancy, i.e. individual plants may not emerge above-ground, potentially for several consecutive years. The drivers of all major vital rates for populations of the species were analysed with general linear mixed models (GLMMs). High-dimensionality function-based matrix projection models were then developed to serve as core elements of deterministic and stochastic adaptive dynamics models used to analyse the adaptive context of sprouting in all populations. We then used regional climate forecasts, derived from high-resolution general atmospheric circulation models, of increased mean annual temperatures and spring precipitation at the occupied sites, to predict evolutionary trends in sprouting. The models predicted that C. parviflorum and O. sphegodes will evolve higher and lower probabilities of sprouting, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century, whereas, after considerable variation, the probability of sprouting in C. candidum will return to its current level. These trends appear to be driven by relationships between mortality and size: in C. parviflorum and C. candidum, mortality is negatively related to size in the current year but positively related to growth since the previous year, whereas in O. sphegodes, mortality is positively related to size.}, }
@article {pmid28280551, year = {2017}, author = {Cizauskas, CA and Carlson, CJ and Burgio, KR and Clements, CF and Dougherty, ER and Harris, NC and Phillips, AJ}, title = {Parasite vulnerability to climate change: an evidence-based functional trait approach.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {160535}, pmid = {28280551}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Despite the number of virulent pathogens that are projected to benefit from global change and to spread in the next century, we suggest that a combination of coextinction risk and climate sensitivity could make parasites at least as extinction prone as any other trophic group. However, the existing interdisciplinary toolbox for identifying species threatened by climate change is inadequate or inappropriate when considering parasites as conservation targets. A functional trait approach can be used to connect parasites' ecological role to their risk of disappearance, but this is complicated by the taxonomic and functional diversity of many parasite clades. Here, we propose biological traits that may render parasite species particularly vulnerable to extinction (including high host specificity, complex life cycles and narrow climatic tolerance), and identify critical gaps in our knowledge of parasite biology and ecology. By doing so, we provide criteria to identify vulnerable parasite species and triage parasite conservation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid28276177, year = {2017}, author = {Yu, Q and Epstein, H and Engstrom, R and Walker, D}, title = {Circumpolar arctic tundra biomass and productivity dynamics in response to projected climate change and herbivory.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {3895-3907}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13632}, pmid = {28276177}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Herbivory ; Russia ; *Tundra ; }, abstract = {Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general 'greening' trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets-occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two.}, }
@article {pmid28275850, year = {2017}, author = {André, K and Baird, J and Gerger Swartling, &#xc5; and Vulturius, G and Plummer, R}, title = {Analysis of Swedish Forest Owners' Information and Knowledge-Sharing Networks for Decision-Making: Insights for Climate Change Communication and Adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {59}, number = {6}, pages = {885-897}, pmid = {28275850}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; Community Participation ; Decision Making ; Forestry/*methods ; *Forests ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Perception ; Problem Solving ; Social Networking ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {To further the understanding of climate change adaptation processes, more attention needs to be paid to the various contextual factors that shape whether and how climate-related knowledge and information is received and acted upon by actors involved. This study sets out to examine the characteristics of forest owners' in Sweden, the information and knowledge-sharing networks they draw upon for decision-making, and their perceptions of climate risks, their forests' resilience, the need for adaptation, and perceived adaptive capacity. By applying the concept of ego-network analysis, the empirical data was generated by a quantitative survey distributed to 3000 private forest owners' in Sweden in 2014 with a response rate of 31%. The results show that there is a positive correlation, even though it is generally weak, between forest owner climate perceptions and (i) network features, i.e. network size and heterogeneity, and (ii) presence of certain alter groups (i.e. network members or actors). Results indicate that forest owners' social networks currently serve only a minimal function of sharing knowledge of climate change and adaptation. Moreover, considering the fairly infrequent contact between respondents and alter groups, the timing of knowledge sharing is important. In conclusion we suggest those actors that forest owners' most frequently communicate with, especially forestry experts providing advisory services (e.g. forest owner associations, companies, and authorities) have a clear role to communicate both the risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation. Peers are valuable in connecting information about climate risks and adaptation to the actual forest property.}, }
@article {pmid28273392, year = {2017}, author = {Paleari, L and Movedi, E and Cappelli, G and Wilson, LT and Confalonieri, R}, title = {Surfing parameter hyperspaces under climate change scenarios to design future rice ideotypes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {11}, pages = {4651-4662}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13682}, pmid = {28273392}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Breeding ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Edible Grain ; Hot Temperature ; India ; Italy ; Japan ; *Oryza/physiology ; Phenotype ; Philippines ; }, abstract = {Growing food crops to meet global demand and the search for more sustainable cropping systems are increasing the need for new cultivars in key production areas. This study presents the identification of rice traits putatively producing the largest yield benefits in five areas that markedly differ in terms of environmental conditions in the Philippines, India, China, Japan and Italy. The ecophysiological model WARM and sensitivity analysis techniques were used to evaluate phenotypic traits involved with light interception, photosynthetic efficiency, tolerance to abiotic stressors, resistance to fungal pathogens and grain quality. The analysis involved only model parameters that have a close relationship with phenotypic traits breeders are working on, to increase the in vivo feasibility of selected ideotypes. Current climate and future projections were considered, in the light of the resources required by breeding programs and of the role of weather variables in the identification of promising traits. Results suggest that breeding for traits involved with disease resistance, and tolerance to cold- and heat-induced spikelet sterility could provide benefits similar to those obtained from the improvement of traits involved with canopy structure and photosynthetic efficiency. In contrast, potential benefits deriving from improved grain quality traits are restricted by weather variability and markedly affected by G × E interactions. For this reason, district-specific ideotypes were identified using a new index accounting for both their productivity and feasibility.}, }
@article {pmid28272437, year = {2017}, author = {Tang, CQ and Dong, YF and Herrando-Moraira, S and Matsui, T and Ohashi, H and He, LY and Nakao, K and Tanaka, N and Tomita, M and Li, XS and Yan, HZ and Peng, MC and Hu, J and Yang, RH and Li, WJ and Yan, K and Hou, X and Zhang, ZY and López-Pujol, J}, title = {Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {43822}, pmid = {28272437}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods/trends ; *Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; Nyssaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; *Refugium ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata.}, }
@article {pmid28270154, year = {2017}, author = {Chowdhury, FR and Nur, Z and Hassan, N and von Seidlein, L and Dunachie, S}, title = {Pandemics, pathogenicity and changing molecular epidemiology of cholera in the era of global warming.}, journal = {Annals of clinical microbiology and antimicrobials}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {10}, pmid = {28270154}, issn = {1476-0711}, mesh = {Cholera/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Molecular Epidemiology ; *Pandemics ; Vibrio cholerae/*pathogenicity ; Virulence Factors ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Vibrio cholerae, a Gram-negative, non-spore forming curved rod is found in diverse aquatic ecosystems around the planet. It is classified according to its major surface antigen into around 206 serogroups, of which O1 and O139 cause epidemic cholera. A recent spatial modelling technique estimated that around 2.86 million cholera cases occur globally every year, and of them approximately 95,000 die. About 1.3 billion people are currently at risk of infection from cholera. Meta-analysis and mathematical modelling have demonstrated that due to global warming the burden of vector-borne diseases like malaria, leishmaniasis, meningococcal meningitis, viral encephalitis, dengue and chikungunya will increase in the coming years in the tropics and beyond.<br><br>CHOLERA AND CLIMATE: This review offers an overview of the interplay between global warming and the pathogenicity and epidemiology of V. cholerae. Several distinctive features of cholera survival (optimal thriving at 15% salinity, 30&#xa0;&#xb0;C water temperature, and pH 8.5) indicate a possible role of climate change in triggering the epidemic process. Genetic exchange (ctxAB, zot, ace, cep, and orfU) between strains and transduction process allows potential emergence of new toxigenic clones. These processes are probably controlled by precise environmental signals such as optimum temperature, sunlight and osmotic conditions. Environmental influences on phytoplankton growth and chitin remineralization will be discussed alongside the interplay of poor sanitary conditions, overcrowding, improper sewage disposal and global warming in promoting the growth and transmission of this deadly disease.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The development of an effective early warning system based on climate data could help to prevent and control future outbreaks. It may become possible to integrate real-time monitoring of oceanic regions, climate variability and epidemiological and demographic population dynamics to predict cholera outbreaks and support the design of cost-effective public health strategies.}, }
@article {pmid28267245, year = {2017}, author = {Carroll, C and Roberts, DR and Michalak, JL and Lawler, JJ and Nielsen, SE and Stralberg, D and Hamann, A and Mcrae, BH and Wang, T}, title = {Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {11}, pages = {4508-4520}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13679}, pmid = {28267245}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecology ; Forecasting ; North America ; *Refugium ; }, abstract = {As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales.}, }
@article {pmid28267144, year = {2017}, author = {Henson, SA and Beaulieu, C and Ilyina, T and John, JG and Long, M and Séférian, R and Tjiputra, J and Sarmiento, JL}, title = {Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {14682}, pmid = {28267144}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Oceans and Seas ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.}, }
@article {pmid28266093, year = {2017}, author = {Goring, SJ and Williams, JW}, title = {Effect of historical land-use and climate change on tree-climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {461-470}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12747}, pmid = {28266093}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Forestry ; Midwestern United States ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Dispersal ; Rain ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree-climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree-climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land-use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land-use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land-use interactions are compounding, in which historical land-use reinforces shifts in species-climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land-use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary-based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28266064, year = {2017}, author = {Rosner, D}, title = {Health, Climate Change, and the Descent of Science-Based Policy.}, journal = {The Milbank quarterly}, volume = {95}, number = {1}, pages = {36-39}, doi = {10.1111/1468-0009.12243}, pmid = {28266064}, issn = {1468-0009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Policy Making ; Politics ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid28266031, year = {2017}, author = {Petrie, MD and Bradford, JB and Hubbard, RM and Lauenroth, WK and Andrews, CM and Schlaepfer, DR}, title = {Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {98}, number = {6}, pages = {1548-1559}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.1791}, pmid = {28266031}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Pinus ponderosa ; Trees ; }, abstract = {The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key environmental conditions for ponderosa pine, a key dryland forest species. We integrated meteorological data and climate projections for 47 ponderosa pine forest sites across the western United States, and evaluated RP using an ecosystem water balance model. Our primary goal was to contrast conditions supporting regeneration among historical, mid-21st century and late-21st century time frames. Future climatic conditions supported 50% higher RP in 2020-2059 relative to 1910-2014. As temperatures increased more substantially in 2060-2099, seedling survival decreased, RP declined by 50%, and the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58%. Thus, climate change may initially support higher RP and increase the likelihood of successful regeneration events, yet will ultimately reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate climate support of regeneration. Our results suggest that climate change alone may begin to restrict the persistence and expansion of dryland forests by limiting seedling survival in the late 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid28264781, year = {2017}, author = {Rafael, S and Martins, H and Marta-Almeida, M and Sá, E and Coelho, S and Rocha, A and Borrego, C and Lopes, M}, title = {Quantification and mapping of urban fluxes under climate change: Application of WRF-SUEWS model to Greater Porto area (Portugal).}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {155}, number = {}, pages = {321-334}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2017.02.033}, pmid = {28264781}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Models, Theoretical ; Portugal ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change and the growth of urban populations are two of the main challenges facing Europe today. These issues are linked as climate change results in serious challenges for cities. Recent attention has focused on how urban surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and water will be affected by climate change and the implications for urban planning and sustainability. In this study energy fluxes for Greater Porto area, Portugal, were estimated and the influence of the projected climate change evaluated. To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) were applied for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986-2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046-2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that for the future climate conditions, the incoming shortwave radiation will increase by around 10%, the sensible heat flux around 40% and the net storage heat flux around 35%. In contrast, the latent heat flux will decrease about 20%. The changes in the magnitude of the different fluxes result in an increase of the net all-wave radiation by 15%. The implications of the changes of the energy balance on the meteorological variables are discussed, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation.}, }
@article {pmid28264304, year = {2017}, author = {Minoli, I and Avila, LJ}, title = {Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina.}, journal = {Zootaxa}, volume = {4237}, number = {1}, pages = {zootaxa.4237.1.5}, doi = {10.11646/zootaxa.4237.1.5}, pmid = {28264304}, issn = {1175-5334}, mesh = {Animals ; Argentina ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Lizards ; }, abstract = {The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28262986, year = {2017}, author = {Nedrich, SM and Burton, GA}, title = {Indirect effects of climate change on zinc cycling in sediments: The role of changing water levels.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {36}, number = {9}, pages = {2456-2464}, doi = {10.1002/etc.3783}, pmid = {28262986}, issn = {1552-8618}, mesh = {Carbonates/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Floods ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Geologic Sediments/*chemistry ; Metals, Heavy/analysis ; Michigan ; Sulfates/analysis ; Sulfides/analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; Wetlands ; Zinc/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Increased variability in lake and river water levels associated with changing climate could impact the fate and effects of metals in redox-sensitive sediments through the alteration of microbial communities and of acid-base and redox chemistry. The objective of the present study was to determine the influence of water level fluctuation on metal speciation in porewater and predict environmental risk to high-carbonate systems. Using experimental microcosms with sediments collected from 4 metal-contaminated coastal freshwater wetlands in Michigan, USA, we conducted water level fluctuation experiments. Porewater and sediment metals (Ca, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Ni, Zn) and important metal binding phases (iron-oxide speciation, acid-volatile sulfide) were quantified. In a short-term drying (seiche) experiment, there were decreases in all porewater metals after inundation of saturated sediments. During a drought experiment, re-inundation of oxidized sediments increased porewater Cu, Zn, Mg, Ca for most sites. Porewater Zn increased after inundation to levels exceeding the US Environmental Protection Agency threshold for chronic toxicity. These data show that the dissolution of metal carbonates and metal sulfates contributes to metal release after re-flooding and indicate that we might expect increased ecological risk to organisms present in drought-sensitive regions where altered hydroperiods are likely to increase metal bioavailability. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2456-2464. © 2017 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid28262715, year = {2017}, author = {Weyhenmeyer, GA and Mackay, M and Stockwell, JD and Thiery, W and Grossart, HP and Augusto-Silva, PB and Baulch, HM and de Eyto, E and Hejzlar, J and Kangur, K and Kirillin, G and Pierson, DC and Rusak, JA and Sadro, S and Woolway, RI}, title = {Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {43890}, pmid = {28262715}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (Tw-Ta) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (QH). If QH is directed upward, corresponding to positive Tw-Ta, it can enhance CO2 and CH4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative Tw-Ta across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward QH), with Tw-Ta becoming increasingly negative with increasing Ta. Further examination of Tw-Ta using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that Tw-Ta is linearly related to Ta. Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative Tw-Ta with increasing annual mean Ta since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative Tw-Ta, thereby reducing CO2 and CH4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere.}, }
@article {pmid28262418, year = {2017}, author = {Sautier, M and Piquet, M and Duru, M and Martin-Clouaire, R}, title = {Exploring adaptations to climate change with stakeholders: A participatory method to design grassland-based farming systems.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {193}, number = {}, pages = {541-550}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.02.050}, pmid = {28262418}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Grassland ; Humans ; Livestock ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Research is expected to produce knowledge, methods and tools to enhance stakeholders' adaptive capacity by helping them to anticipate and cope with the effects of climate change at their own level. Farmers face substantial challenges from climate change, from changes in the average temperatures and the precipitation regime to an increased variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Such changes can have dramatic consequences for many types of agricultural production systems such as grassland-based livestock systems for which climate change influences the seasonality and productivity of fodder production. We present a participatory design method called FARMORE (FARM-Oriented REdesign) that allows farmers to design and evaluate adaptations of livestock systems to future climatic conditions. It explicitly considers three climate features in the design and evaluation processes: climate change, climate variability and the limited predictability of weather. FARMORE consists of a sequence of three workshops for which a pre-existing game-like platform was adapted. Various year-round forage production and animal feeding requirements must be assembled by participants with a computerized support system. In workshop 1, farmers aim to produce a configuration that satisfies an average future weather scenario. They refine or revise the previous configuration by considering a sample of the between-year variability of weather in workshop 2. In workshop 3, they explicitly take the limited predictability of weather into account. We present the practical aspects of the method based on four case studies involving twelve farmers from Aveyron (France), and illustrate it through an in-depth description of one of these case studies with three dairy farmers. The case studies shows and discusses how workshop sequencing (1) supports a design process that progressively accommodates complexity of real management contexts by enlarging considerations of climate change to climate variability and low weather predictability, and (2) increases the credibility and salience of the design method. Further enhancements of the method are outlined, especially the selection of pertinent weather scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid28261933, year = {2017}, author = {Jones, LM and Koehler, AK and Trnka, M and Balek, J and Challinor, AJ and Atkinson, HJ and Urwin, PE}, title = {Climate change is predicted to alter the current pest status of Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis in the United Kingdom.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {11}, pages = {4497-4507}, pmid = {28261933}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {BB/J015563/1//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Soil ; Solanum tuberosum/*parasitology ; Tylenchoidea/*physiology ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The potato cyst nematodes Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis are economically important plant pathogens causing losses to UK potato harvests estimated at £50 m/ year. Implications of climate change on their future pest status have not been fully considered. Here, we report growth of female G. pallida and G. rostochiensis over the range 15 to 25°C. Females per plant and their fecundity declined progressively with temperatures above 17.5°C for G. pallida, whilst females per plant were optimal between 17.5 and 22.5°C for G. rostochiensis. Relative reproductive success with temperature was confirmed on two potato cultivars infected with either species at 15, 22.5 and 25°C. The reduced reproductive success of G. pallida at 22.5°C relative to 15°C was also recorded for a further seven host cultivars studied. The differences in optimal temperatures for reproductive success may relate to known differences in the altitude of their regions of origin in the Andes. Exposure of G. pallida to a diurnal temperature stress for one week during female growth significantly suppressed subsequent growth for one week at 17.5°C but had no effect on G. rostochiensis. However, after two weeks of recovery, female size was not significantly different from that for the control treatment. Future soil temperatures were simulated for medium- and high-emission scenarios and combined with nematode growth data to project future implications of climate change for the two species. Increased soil temperatures associated with climate change may reduce the pest status of G. pallida but benefit G. rostochiensis especially in the southern United Kingdom. We conclude that plant breeders may be able to exploit the thermal limits of G. pallida by developing potato cultivars able to grow under future warm summer conditions. Existing widely deployed resistance to G. rostochiensis is an important characteristic to retain for new potato cultivars.}, }
@article {pmid28261463, year = {2017}, author = {Wan, JZ and Wang, CJ and Tan, JF and Yu, FH}, title = {Climatic niche divergence and habitat suitability of eight alien invasive weeds in China under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {1541-1552}, pmid = {28261463}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Testing climatic niche divergence and modeling habitat suitability under conditions of climate change are important for developing strategies to limit the introduction and expansion of alien invasive weeds (AIWs) and providing important ecological and evolutionary insights. We assessed climatic niches in both native and invasive ranges as well as habitat suitability under climate change for eight representative Chinese AIWs from the American continent. We used climatic variables associated with occurrence records and developed ecological niche models with Maxent. Interestingly, the climatic niches of all eight AIWs diverged significantly between the native and invasive ranges (the American continent and China). Furthermore, the AIWs showed larger climatic niche breadths in the invasive ranges than in the native ranges. Our results suggest that climatic niche shifts between native and invasive ranges occurred. Thus, the occurrence records of both native and invasive regions must be considered when modeling and predicting the spatial distributions of AIWs under current and future climate scenarios. Owing to high habitat suitability, AIWs were more likely to expand into regions of low latitude, and future climate change was predicted to result in a shift in the AIWs in Qinghai and Tibet (regions of higher altitude) as well as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu (regions of higher latitude). Our results suggest that we need measures to prevent and control AIW expansion at the country-wide level.}, }
@article {pmid28261460, year = {2017}, author = {Reese, GC and Skagen, SK}, title = {Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {1497-1513}, pmid = {28261460}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land-use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We used Random Forests to model probabilities of occurrence and compared the time periods 1981-2010 (hindcast) and 2041-2070 (forecast) in "model space." Projected changes in shorebird probabilities of occurrence varied with species-specific general distribution pattern, migration distance, and spatial extent. Species using the western and northern portion of the study area exhibited the greatest likelihoods of decline, whereas species with more easterly occurrences, mostly long-distance migrants, had the greatest projected increases in probability of occurrence. At an ecoregional extent, differences in probabilities of shorebird occurrence ranged from -0.015 to 0.045 when averaged across climate models, with the largest increases occurring early in migration. Spatial shifts are predicted for several shorebird species. Probabilities of occurrence of wintering Mallards and Northern Pintail are predicted to increase by 0.046 and 0.061, respectively, with northward shifts projected for both species. When incorporated into partner land management decision tools, results at ecoregional extents can be used to identify wetland complexes with the greatest potential to support birds in the nonbreeding season under a wide range of future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid28261446, year = {2017}, author = {Panchen, ZA and Gorelick, R}, title = {Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {1325-1338}, pmid = {28261446}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species' phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic. We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km[2] area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species' phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology-climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late-summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions. Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could result in greater changes in some parts of Nunavut than in others.}, }
@article {pmid28260820, year = {2017}, author = {Wijngaard, RR and van der Perk, M and van der Grift, B and de Nijs, TCM and Bierkens, MFP}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Metal Transport in a Lowland Catchment.}, journal = {Water, air, and soil pollution}, volume = {228}, number = {3}, pages = {107}, pmid = {28260820}, issn = {0049-6979}, abstract = {This study investigates the impact of future climate change on heavy metal (i.e., Cd and Zn) transport from soils to surface waters in a contaminated lowland catchment. The WALRUS hydrological model is employed in a semi-distributed manner to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes in the Dommel catchment in the Netherlands. The model is forced with climate change projections and the simulated fluxes are used as input to a metal transport model that simulates heavy metal concentrations and loads in quickflow and baseflow pathways. Metal transport is simulated under baseline climate ("2000-2010") and future climate ("2090-2099") conditions including scenarios for no climate change and climate change. The outcomes show an increase in Cd and Zn loads and the mean flux-weighted Cd and Zn concentrations in the discharged runoff, which is attributed to breakthrough of heavy metals from the soil system. Due to climate change, runoff enhances and leaching is accelerated, resulting in enhanced Cd and Zn loads. Mean flux-weighted concentrations in the discharged runoff increase during early summer and decrease during late summer and early autumn under the most extreme scenario of climate change. The results of this study provide improved understanding on the processes responsible for future changes in heavy metal contamination in lowland catchments.}, }
@article {pmid28257501, year = {2017}, author = {Requena-Mullor, JM and López, E and Castro, AJ and Alcaraz-Segura, D and Castro, H and Reyes, A and Cabello, J}, title = {Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {e0172107}, pmid = {28257501}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Mustelidae/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Spain ; }, abstract = {As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid28254623, year = {2017}, author = {Phelps, CM and Boyce, MC and Huggett, MJ}, title = {Future climate change scenarios differentially affect three abundant algal species in southwestern Australia.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {126}, number = {}, pages = {69-80}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2017.02.008}, pmid = {28254623}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Seaweed/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Three species of macroalgae (Ecklonia radiata, Sargassum linearifolium, and Laurencia brongniartii) were subjected to future climate change conditions, tested directly for changes in their physiology and chemical ecology, and used in feeding assays with local herbivores to identify the indirect effects of climatic stressors on subsequent levels of herbivory. Each alga had distinct physical and chemical responses to the changes in environmental conditions. In high temperature conditions, S. linearifolium exhibited high levels of bleaching and low maximum quantum yield. For E. radiata, the alga became more palatable to herbivores and the C:N ratios were either higher or lower, dependent on the treatment. Laurencia brongniartii was effected in all manipulations when compared to controls, with increases in bleaching, blade density, and C:N ratios and decreases in growth, maximum quantum yield, blade toughness, total phenolics and consumption by mesograzers. The differential responses we observed in each species have important implications for benthic communities in projected climate change conditions and we suggest that future studies target multi-species assemblage responses.}, }
@article {pmid28247124, year = {2017}, author = {Zhang, Q and Zhang, W and Li, T and Sun, W and Yu, Y and Wang, G}, title = {Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {61}, number = {8}, pages = {1445-1460}, pmid = {28247124}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {31370492//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41573069//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41471444//National Natural Science Foundation of China/ ; 41605088//National Natural Science Foundation of China (CN)/ ; }, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oryza/growth &amp; development ; Triticum/growth &amp; development ; Zea mays/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.}, }
@article {pmid28245534, year = {2017}, author = {Tait, P and Armstrong, F}, title = {Effects of climate change - are we prepared?.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {41}, number = {3}, pages = {324}, doi = {10.1111/1753-6405.12635}, pmid = {28245534}, issn = {1753-6405}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid28240022, year = {2017}, author = {Muratori, M and Smith, SJ and Kyle, P and Link, R and Mignone, BK and Kheshgi, HS}, title = {Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {51}, number = {6}, pages = {3526-3533}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6b04515}, pmid = {28240022}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Biofuels ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Transportation ; }, abstract = {The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21[st] century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. By contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.}, }
@article {pmid28237403, year = {2017}, author = {Foo, SA and Byrne, M}, title = {Marine gametes in a changing ocean: Impacts of climate change stressors on fecundity and the egg.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {128}, number = {}, pages = {12-24}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2017.02.004}, pmid = {28237403}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Fertility ; *Fertilization ; *Germ Cells ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {In marine invertebrates, the environmental history of the mother can influence fecundity and egg size. Acclimation of females in climate change stressors, increased temperature and low pH, results in a decrease in egg number and size in many taxa, with the exception of cephalopods, where eggs increase in size. With respect to spawned eggs, near future levels of ocean acidification can interfere with the egg's block to polyspermy and intracellular pH. Reduction of the extracellular egg jelly coat seen in low pH conditions has implications for impaired egg function and fertilization. Some fast generation species (e.g. copepods, polychaetes) have shown restoration of female reproductive output after several generations in treatments. It will be important to determine if the changes to egg number and size induced by exposure to climate change stressors are heritable.}, }
@article {pmid28237309, year = {2017}, author = {Chen, K and Horton, RM and Bader, DA and Lesk, C and Jiang, L and Jones, B and Zhou, L and Chen, X and Bi, J and Kinney, PL}, title = {Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {224}, number = {}, pages = {317-325}, pmid = {28237309}, issn = {1873-6424}, support = {P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T32 ES023770/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Cardiovascular Diseases/*mortality ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Density ; *Public Health ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*mortality ; }, abstract = {A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid28233862, year = {2017}, author = {Pound, MJ and Salzmann, U}, title = {Heterogeneity in global vegetation and terrestrial climate change during the late Eocene to early Oligocene transition.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {43386}, pmid = {28233862}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Ancient Lands ; Antarctic Regions ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Climate Change/*history ; Cold Climate ; Geologic Sediments/analysis ; History, Ancient ; Ice Cover ; *Oceans and Seas ; *Plant Development ; Plants ; Pollen/*growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Rapid global cooling at the Eocene - Oligocene Transition (EOT), ~33.9-33.5 Ma, is widely considered to mark the onset of the modern icehouse world. A large and rapid drop in atmospheric pCO2 has been proposed as the driving force behind extinctions in the marine realm and glaciation on Antarctica. However, the global terrestrial response to this cooling is uncertain. Here we present the first global vegetation and terrestrial temperature reconstructions for the EOT. Using an extensive palynological dataset, that has been statistically grouped into palaeo-biomes, we show a more transitional nature of terrestrial climate change by indicating a spatial and temporal heterogeneity of vegetation change at the EOT in both hemispheres. The reconstructed terrestrial temperatures show for many regions a cooling that started well before the EOT and continued into the Early Oligocene. We conclude that the heterogeneous pattern of global vegetation change has been controlled by a combination of multiple forcings, such as tectonics, sea-level fall and long-term decline in greenhouse gas concentrations during the late Eocene to early Oligocene, and does not represent a single response to a rapid decline in atmospheric pCO2 at the EOT.}, }
@article {pmid28231329, year = {2017}, author = {Tomasek, BJ and Williams, MM and Davis, AS}, title = {Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {e0172301}, pmid = {28231329}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Illinois ; Seasons ; Soil/chemistry ; Weather ; }, abstract = {As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid28230268, year = {2017}, author = {Cil, G and Cameron, TA}, title = {Potential Climate Change Health Risks from Increases in Heat Waves: Abnormal Birth Outcomes and Adverse Maternal Health Conditions.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {37}, number = {11}, pages = {2066-2079}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12767}, pmid = {28230268}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Gestational Age ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; *Maternal Health ; Pregnancy ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Social Class ; United States ; }, abstract = {We investigate the risks presented by heat waves for adverse health conditions for babies and expectant mothers when these mothers have been exposed to heat waves during gestation or during the period just prior to conception. Rather than just birth weight and gestational age, we focus on less common metrics such as abnormal conditions in the newborn (fetal distress, reliance on a ventilator, and meconium aspiration) and adverse health conditions in the mother (pregnancy-related hypertension, uterine bleeding during pregnancy, eclampsia, and incompetent cervix). We use monthly panel data for over 3,000 U.S. counties, constructed from the confidential version of the U.S. Natality Files for 1989-2008. Our models control for sociodemographic factors and include county, month, and state-by-year fixed effects to control for unobserved spatial and timewise heterogeneity in the data. Even within the United States, where there is widespread access to air conditioning, heat waves increase the fraction of babies with abnormal conditions related to maternal stress, as well as the fraction of mothers who experience pregnancy-related adverse health conditions. The scope for these risks in developing countries is likely to be even greater.}, }
@article {pmid28230079, year = {2017}, author = {Wen, Y and Schoups, G and van de Giesen, N}, title = {Organic pollution of rivers: Combined threats of urbanization, livestock farming and global climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {43289}, pmid = {28230079}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; Biological Oxygen Demand Analysis ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Organic Chemicals/*analysis ; Rivers/*chemistry ; *Urbanization ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Organic pollution of rivers by wastewater discharge from human activities negatively impacts people and ecosystems. Without treatment, pollution control relies on a combination of natural degradation and dilution by natural runoff to reduce downstream effects. We quantify here for the first time the global sanitation crisis through its impact on organic river pollution from the threats of (1) increasing wastewater discharge due to urbanization and intensification of livestock farming, and (2) reductions in river dilution capacity due to climate change and water extractions. Using in-stream Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) as an overall indicator of organic river pollution, we calculate historical (2000) and future (2050) BOD concentrations in global river networks. Despite significant self-cleaning capacities of rivers, the number of people affected by organic pollution (BOD >5 mg/l) is projected to increase from 1.1 billion in 2000 to 2.5 billion in 2050. With developing countries disproportionately affected, our results point to a growing need for affordable wastewater solutions.}, }
@article {pmid28230069, year = {2017}, author = {Ordonez, A and Svenning, JC}, title = {Consistent role of Quaternary climate change in shaping current plant functional diversity patterns across European plant orders.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {42988}, pmid = {28230069}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Caryophyllales/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Plant Development/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Rosales/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Current and historical environmental conditions are known to determine jointly contemporary species distributions and richness patterns. However, whether historical dynamics in species distributions and richness translate to functional diversity patterns remains, for the most part, unknown. The geographic patterns of plant functional space size (richness) and packing (dispersion) for six widely distributed orders of European angiosperms were estimated using atlas distribution data and trait information. Then the relative importance of late-Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change and contemporary environmental factors (climate, productivity, and topography) as determinants of functional diversity of evaluated orders was assesed. Functional diversity patterns of all evaluated orders exhibited prominent glacial-interglacial climate change imprints, complementing the influence of contemporary environmental conditions. The importance of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change factors was comparable to that of contemporary environmental factors across evaluated orders. Therefore, high long-term paleoclimate variability has imposed consistent supplementary constraints on functional diversity of multiple plant groups, a legacy that may permeate to ecosystem functioning and resilience. These findings suggest that strong near-future anthropogenic climate change may elicit long-term functional disequilibria in plant functional diversity.}, }
@article {pmid28225817, year = {2017}, author = {Rempel, RS and Hornseth, ML}, title = {Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {e0172668}, pmid = {28225817}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Great Lakes Region ; Lakes ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.}, }
@article {pmid28223487, year = {2017}, author = {Jones, GD and Droz, B and Greve, P and Gottschalk, P and Poffet, D and McGrath, SP and Seneviratne, SI and Smith, P and Winkel, LH}, title = {Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {11}, pages = {2848-2853}, pmid = {28223487}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {BBS/E/C/00004174/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/L000113/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; *Prognosis ; Risk Factors ; Selenium/chemistry/*metabolism ; Soil/chemistry ; Soil Pollutants/*chemistry/isolation &amp; purification ; Trace Elements/chemistry/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980-1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate-soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080-2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate-soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28222248, year = {2017}, author = {Fekete, I and Lajtha, K and Kotroczó, Z and Várbíró, G and Varga, C and Tóth, JA and Demeter, I and Veperdi, G and Berki, I}, title = {Long-term effects of climate change on carbon storage and tree species composition in a dry deciduous forest.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {3154-3168}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13669}, pmid = {28222248}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon ; *Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Soil ; Time Factors ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Forest vegetation and soils have been suggested as potentially important sinks for carbon (C) with appropriate management and thus are implicated as effective tools in stabilizing climate even with increasing anthropogenic release of CO2 . Drought, however, which is often predicted to increase in models of future climate change, may limit net primary productio (NPP) of dry forest types, with unknown effects on soil C storage. We studied C dynamics of a deciduous temperate forest of Hungary that has been subject to significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature in recent decades. We resampled plots that were established in 1972 and repeated the full C inventory by analyzing more than 4 decades of data on the number of living trees, biomass of trees and shrubs, and soil C content. Our analyses show that the decline in number and biomass of oaks started around the end of the 1970s with a 71% reduction in the number of sessile oak stems by 2014. Projected growth in this forest, based on the yield table's data for Hungary, was 4.6 kg C/m[2] . Although new species emerged, this new growth and small increases in oak biomass resulted in only 1.9 kg C/m[2] increase over 41 years. The death of oaks increased inputs of coarse woody debris to the surface of the soil, much of which is still identifiable, and caused an increase of 15.5%, or 2.6 kg C/m[2] , in the top 1 m of soil. Stability of this fresh organic matter input to surface soil is unknown, but is likely to be low based on the results of a colocated woody litter decomposition study. The effects of a warmer and drier climate on the C balance of forests in this region will be felt for decades to come as woody litter inputs decay, and forest growth remains impeded.}, }
@article {pmid28221374, year = {2016}, author = {Hultine, KR and Grady, KC and Wood, TE and Shuster, SM and Stella, JC and Whitham, TG}, title = {Climate change perils for dioecious plant species.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {16109}, doi = {10.1038/nplants.2016.109}, pmid = {28221374}, issn = {2055-0278}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Reproduction ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change, particularly increased aridity, poses a significant threat to plants and the biotic communities they support. Dioecious species may be especially vulnerable to climate change given that they often exhibit spatial segregation of the sexes, reinforced by physiological and morphological specialization of each sex to different microhabitats. In dimorphic species, the overexpression of a trait by one gender versus the other may become suppressed in future climates. Data suggest that males will generally be less sensitive to increased aridity than co-occurring females and, consequently, extreme male-biased sex ratios are possible in a significant number of populations. The effects of male-biased sex ratios are likely to cascade to dependent community members, especially those that are specialized on one sex.}, }
@article {pmid28221339, year = {2016}, author = {Lyu, J}, title = {Climate change: Sex-specific responses.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {16123}, doi = {10.1038/nplants.2016.123}, pmid = {28221339}, issn = {2055-0278}, }
@article {pmid28218685, year = {2017}, author = {Paterson, RR and Lima, N}, title = {Thermophilic Fungi to Dominate Aflatoxigenic/Mycotoxigenic Fungi on Food under Global Warming.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {28218685}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Aflatoxins/*analysis ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*microbiology ; Food Contamination/*analysis ; Food Safety ; Fungi/*growth &amp; development ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Mycotoxins/*analysis ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Certain filamentous fungi produce mycotoxins that contaminate food. Mycotoxin contamination of crops is highly influenced by environmental conditions and is already affected by global warming, where there is a succession of mycotoxigenic fungi towards those that have higher optimal growth temperatures. Aflatoxigenic fungi are at the highest limit of temperature although predicted increases in temperature are beyond that constraint. The present paper discusses what will succeed these fungi and represents the first such consideration. Aflatoxins are the most important mycotoxins and are common in tropical produce, much of which is exported to temperate regions. Hot countries may produce safer food under climate change because aflatoxigenic fungi will be inhibited. The same situation will occur in previously temperate regions where these fungi have recently appeared, although decades later. Existing thermotolerant and thermophilic fungi (TTF) will dominate, in contrast to the conventional mycotoxigenic fungi adapting or mutating, as it will be quicker. TTF produce a range of secondary metabolites, or potential mycotoxins and patulin which may become a new threat. In addition, Aspergillus fumigatus will appear more frequently, a serious human pathogen, because it is (a) thermotolerant and (b) present on crops: hence this is an even greater problem. An incubation temperature of 41 °C needs employing forthwith to detect TTF. Finally, TTF in crops requires study because of the potential for diseases in humans and animals under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28215020, year = {2017}, author = {Phillips, J and Magos Brehm, J and van Oort, B and Asdal, &#xc5; and Rasmussen, M and Maxted, N}, title = {Climate change and national crop wild relative conservation planning.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {46}, number = {6}, pages = {630-643}, pmid = {28215020}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Food Supply ; Norway ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to be one of the most important factors affecting our future food security. To mitigate negative impacts, we will require our crops to be more genetically diverse. Such diversity is available in crop wild relatives (CWRs), the wild taxa relatively closely related to crops and from which diverse traits can be transferred to the crop. Conservation of such genetic resources resides within the nation where they are found; therefore, national-level conservation recommendations are fundamental to global food security. We investigate the potential impact of climate change on CWR richness in Norway. The consequences of a 1.5 and 3.0 °C temperature rise were studied for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, 2080 and then compared to the present climate. The results indicate a pattern of shifting CWR richness from the south to the north, with increases in taxa turnover and in the numbers of threatened taxa. Recommendations for in situ and ex situ conservation actions over the short and long term for the priority CWRs in Norway are presented. The methods and recommendations developed here can be applied within other nations and at regional and global levels to improve the effectiveness of conservation actions and help ensure global food security.}, }
@article {pmid28212462, year = {2017}, author = {Alava, JJ and Cheung, WWL and Ross, PS and Sumaila, UR}, title = {Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {10}, pages = {3984-4001}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13667}, pmid = {28212462}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; *Food Chain ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; Pacific Ocean ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical ; }, abstract = {Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the ecological and socioeconomic risk of greenhouse gases and marine pollutants.}, }
@article {pmid28211518, year = {2017}, author = {McLinden, MO and Brown, JS and Brignoli, R and Kazakov, AF and Domanski, PA}, title = {Limited options for low-global-warming-potential refrigerants.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {14476}, pmid = {28211518}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, are potent greenhouse gases, and their contribution to climate change is projected to increase. Future use of the hydrofluorocarbons will be phased down and, thus replacement fluids must be found. Here we show that only a few pure fluids possess the combination of chemical, environmental, thermodynamic, and safety properties necessary for a refrigerant and that these fluids are at least slightly flammable. We search for replacements by applying screening criteria to a comprehensive chemical database. For the fluids passing the thermodynamic and environmental screens (critical temperature and global warming potential), we simulate performance in small air-conditioning systems, including optimization of the heat exchangers. We show that the efficiency-versus-capacity trade-off that exists in an ideal analysis disappears when a more realistic system is considered. The maximum efficiency occurs at a relatively high volumetric refrigeration capacity, but there are few fluids in this range.}, }
@article {pmid28211151, year = {2017}, author = {Smith, AB and Alsdurf, J and Knapp, M and Baer, SG and Johnson, LC}, title = {Phenotypic distribution models corroborate species distribution models: A shift in the role and prevalence of a dominant prairie grass in response to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {10}, pages = {4365-4375}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13666}, pmid = {28211151}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Andropogon ; *Climate Change ; *Grassland ; *Poaceae ; Prevalence ; }, abstract = {Phenotypic distribution within species can vary widely across environmental gradients but forecasts of species' responses to environmental change often assume species respond homogenously across their ranges. We compared predictions from species and phenotype distribution models under future climate scenarios for Andropogon gerardii, a widely distributed, dominant grass found throughout the central United States. Phenotype data on aboveground biomass, height, leaf width, and chlorophyll content were obtained from 33 populations spanning a ~1000 km gradient that encompassed the majority of the species' environmental range. Species and phenotype distribution models were trained using current climate conditions and projected to future climate scenarios. We used permutation procedures to infer the most important variable for each model. The species-level response to climate was most sensitive to maximum temperature of the hottest month, but phenotypic variables were most sensitive to mean annual precipitation. The phenotype distribution models predict that A. gerardii could be largely functionally eliminated from where this species currently dominates, with biomass and height declining by up to ~60% and leaf width by ~20%. By the 2070s, the core area of highest suitability for A. gerardii is projected to shift up to ~700 km northeastward. Further, short-statured phenotypes found in the present-day short grass prairies on the western periphery of the species' range will become favored in the current core ~800 km eastward of their current location. Combined, species and phenotype models predict this currently dominant prairie grass will decline in prevalence and stature. Thus, sourcing plant material for grassland restoration and forage should consider changes in the phenotype that will be favored under future climate conditions. Phenotype distribution models account for the role of intraspecific variation in determining responses to anticipated climate change and thereby complement predictions from species distributions models in guiding climate adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid28207766, year = {2017}, author = {Templer, PH and Reinmann, AB and Sanders-DeMott, R and Sorensen, PO and Juice, SM and Bowles, F and Sofen, LE and Harrison, JL and Halm, I and Rustad, L and Martin, ME and Grant, N}, title = {Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE): A new method for simulating future climate in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {e0171928}, pmid = {28207766}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Seasons ; *Snow ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate models project an increase in mean annual air temperatures and a reduction in the depth and duration of winter snowpack for many mid and high latitude and high elevation seasonally snow-covered ecosystems over the next century. The combined effects of these changes in climate will lead to warmer soils in the growing season and increased frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) in winter due to the loss of a continuous, insulating snowpack. Previous experiments have warmed soils or removed snow via shoveling or with shelters to mimic projected declines in the winter snowpack. To our knowledge, no experiment has examined the interactive effects of declining snowpack and increased frequency of soil FTCs, combined with soil warming in the snow-free season on terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, none have mimicked directly the projected increase in soil FTC frequency in tall statured forests that is expected as a result of a loss of insulating snow in winter. We established the Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire in 2012 to assess the combined effects of these changes in climate on a variety of pedoclimate conditions, biogeochemical processes, and ecology of northern hardwood forests. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of creating soil FTC events in a tall statured ecosystem in winter to simulate the projected increase in soil FTC frequency over the next century and combines this projected change in winter climate with ecosystem warming throughout the snow-free season. Together, this experiment provides a new and more comprehensive approach for climate change experiments that can be adopted in other seasonally snow-covered ecosystems to simulate expected changes resulting from global air temperature rise.}, }
@article {pmid28202963, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Climate change: The high cost of keeping cool.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {542}, number = {7641}, pages = {275}, doi = {10.1038/542275d}, pmid = {28202963}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid28196834, year = {2017}, author = {Dadvand, P}, title = {Congenital anomalies: an under-evaluated risk of climate change.}, journal = {Occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {74}, number = {5}, pages = {313-314}, doi = {10.1136/oemed-2016-104193}, pmid = {28196834}, issn = {1470-7926}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Congenital Abnormalities/etiology ; Female ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Maternal Exposure/*adverse effects ; Neural Tube Defects/*etiology ; Pregnancy ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid28195582, year = {2017}, author = {Mackintosh, AN and Anderson, BM and Lorrey, AM and Renwick, JA and Frei, P and Dean, SM}, title = {Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {14202}, pmid = {28195582}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.}, }
@article {pmid28192454, year = {2017}, author = {Serra-Varela, MJ and Alía, R and Pórtoles, J and Gonzalo, J and Soliño, M and Grivet, D and Raposo, R}, title = {Incorporating exposure to pitch canker disease to support management decisions of Pinus pinaster Ait. in the face of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {e0171549}, pmid = {28192454}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Forestry/methods ; Fusarium/*physiology ; Geography ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Models, Theoretical ; Pinus/*microbiology ; Plant Diseases/microbiology ; Rain ; Spain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen's (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host's risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations.}, }
@article {pmid28190904, year = {2017}, author = {Marx, W and Haunschild, R and Thor, A and Bornmann, L}, title = {Which early works are cited most frequently in climate change research literature? A bibliometric approach based on Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy.}, journal = {Scientometrics}, volume = {110}, number = {1}, pages = {335-353}, pmid = {28190904}, issn = {0138-9130}, abstract = {This bibliometric analysis focuses on the general history of climate change research and, more specifically, on the discovery of the greenhouse effect. First, the Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RPYS) is applied to a large publication set on climate change of 222,060 papers published between 1980 and 2014. The references cited therein were extracted and analyzed with regard to publications, which are cited most frequently. Second, a new method for establishing a more subject-specific publication set for applying RPYS (based on the co-citations of a marker reference) is proposed (RPYS-CO). The RPYS of the climate change literature focuses on the history of climate change research in total. We identified 35 highly-cited publications across all disciplines, which include fundamental early scientific works of the nineteenth century (with a weak connection to climate change) and some cornerstones of science with a stronger connection to climate change. By using the Arrhenius (Philos Mag J Sci Ser 5(41):237-276, 1896) paper as a RPYS-CO marker paper, we selected only publications specifically discussing the discovery of the greenhouse effect and the role of carbon dioxide. Using different RPYS approaches in this study, we were able to identify the complete range of works of the celebrated icons as well as many less known works relevant for the history of climate change research. The analyses confirmed the potential of the RPYS method for historical studies: Seminal papers are detected on the basis of the references cited by the overall community without any further assumptions.}, }
@article {pmid28189309, year = {2017}, author = {Paul, C and Weber, M and Knoke, T}, title = {Agroforestry versus farm mosaic systems - Comparing land-use efficiency, economic returns and risks under climate change effects.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {587-588}, number = {}, pages = {22-35}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.037}, pmid = {28189309}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Increasing land-use conflicts call for the development of land-use systems that reconcile agricultural production with the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. Agroforestry has been suggested as a global solution to increase land-use efficiency, while reducing environmental impacts and economic risks for farmers. Past research has often focused on comparing tree-crop combinations with agricultural monocultures, but agroforestry has seldom been systematically compared to other forms of land-use diversification, including a farm mosaic. This form of diversification mixes separate parcels of different land uses within the farm. The objective of this study was to develop a modelling approach to compare the performance of the agroforestry and farm mosaic diversification strategies, accounting for tree-crop interaction effects and economic and climate uncertainty. For this purpose, Modern Portfolio Theory and risk simulation were coupled with the process-based biophysical simulation model WaNuLCAS 4.0. For an example application, we used data from a field trial in Panama. The results show that the simulated agroforestry systems (Taungya, alley cropping and border planting) could outperform a farm mosaic approach in terms of cumulative production and return. Considering market and climate uncertainty, agroforestry showed an up to 21% higher economic return at the same risk level (i.e. standard deviation of economic returns). Farm compositions with large shares of land allocated to maize cultivation were also more severely affected by an increasing drought frequency in terms of both risks and returns. Our study demonstrates that agroforestry can be an economically efficient diversification strategy, but only if the design allows for economies of scope, beneficial interactions between trees and crops and higher income diversification compared to a farm mosaic. The modelling approach can make an important contribution to support land-use decisions at the farm level and reduce land-use conflicts at the landscape level.}, }
@article {pmid28186719, year = {2017}, author = {Xu, Y}, title = {Climate Change as a Flagship Opportunity for Domestic Governance.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {51}, number = {4}, pages = {1946-1947}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6b06001}, pmid = {28186719}, issn = {1520-5851}, }
@article {pmid28186382, year = {2017}, author = {Markovic, D and Carrizo, SF and Kärcher, O and Walz, A and David, JNW}, title = {Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {3567-3580}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13657}, pmid = {28186382}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Fresh Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid28186097, year = {2017}, author = {Chivers, WJ and Walne, AW and Hays, GC}, title = {Mismatch between marine plankton range movements and the velocity of climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {14434}, pmid = {28186097}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Copepoda/physiology ; Diatoms/physiology ; Dinoflagellida/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/physiology ; *Food Chain ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton/physiology ; Plankton/classification/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {The response of marine plankton to climate change is of critical importance to the oceanic food web and fish stocks. We use a 60-year ocean basin-wide data set comprising >148,000 samples to reveal huge differences in range changes associated with climate change across 35 plankton taxa. While the range of dinoflagellates and copepods tended to closely track the velocity of climate change (the rate of isotherm movement), the range of the diatoms moved much more slowly. Differences in range shifts were up to 900 km in a recent warming period, with average velocities of range movement between 7 km per decade northwards for taxa exhibiting niche plasticity and 99 km per decade for taxa exhibiting niche conservatism. The differing responses of taxa to global warming will cause spatial restructuring of the plankton ecosystem with likely consequences for grazing pressures on phytoplankton and hence for biogeochemical cycling, higher trophic levels and biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid28186094, year = {2017}, author = {Mackay, SL and Marchant, DR}, title = {Obliquity-paced climate change recorded in Antarctic debris-covered glaciers.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {14194}, pmid = {28186094}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {The degree to which debris-covered glaciers record past environmental conditions is debated. Here we describe a novel palaeoclimate archive derived from the surface morphology and internal debris within cold-based debris-covered glaciers in Antarctica. Results show that subtle changes in mass balance impart major changes in the concentration of englacial debris and corresponding surface topography, and that over the past ∼220 ka, at least, the changes are related to obliquity-paced solar radiation, manifest as variations in total summer energy. Our findings emphasize solar radiation as a significant driver of mass balance changes in high-latitude mountain systems, and demonstrate that debris-covered glaciers are among the most sensitive recorders of obliquity-paced climate variability in interior Antarctica, in contrast to most other Antarctic archives that favour eccentricity-paced forcing over the same time period. Furthermore, our results open the possibility that similar-appearing debris-covered glaciers on Mars may likewise hold clues to environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid28185607, year = {2017}, author = {Bähner, KW and Zweig, KA and Leal, IR and Wirth, R}, title = {Robustness of plant-insect herbivore interaction networks to climate change in a fragmented temperate forest landscape.}, journal = {Bulletin of entomological research}, volume = {107}, number = {5}, pages = {563-572}, doi = {10.1017/S0007485317000062}, pmid = {28185607}, issn = {1475-2670}, mesh = {Animals ; Betulaceae ; *Climate Change ; Fagus ; *Food Chain ; *Forests ; Germany ; *Herbivory ; *Insecta ; }, abstract = {Forest fragmentation and climate change are among the most severe and pervasive forms of human impact. Yet, their combined effects on plant-insect herbivore interaction networks, essential components of forest ecosystems with respect to biodiversity and functioning, are still poorly investigated, particularly in temperate forests. We addressed this issue by analysing plant-insect herbivore networks (PIHNs) from understories of three managed beech forest habitats: small forest fragments (2.2-145 ha), forest edges and forest interior areas within three continuous control forests (1050-5600 ha) in an old hyper-fragmented forest landscape in SW Germany. We assessed the impact of forest fragmentation, particularly edge effects, on PIHNs and the resulting differences in robustness against climate change by habitat-wise comparison of network topology and biologically realistic extinction cascades of networks following scores of vulnerability to climate change for the food plant species involved. Both the topological network metrics (complexity, nestedness, trophic niche redundancy) and robustness to climate change strongly increased in forest edges and fragments as opposed to the managed forest interior. The nature of the changes indicates that human impacts modify network structure mainly via host plant availability to insect herbivores. Improved robustness of PIHNs in forest edges/small fragments to climate-driven extinction cascades was attributable to an overall higher thermotolerance across plant communities, along with positive effects of network structure. The impoverishment of PIHNs in managed forest interiors and the suggested loss of insect diversity from climate-induced co-extinction highlight the need for further research efforts focusing on adequate silvicultural and conservation approaches.}, }
@article {pmid28181733, year = {2017}, author = {Yan, W and Zhong, Y and Shangguan, Z}, title = {Contrasting responses of leaf stomatal characteristics to climate change: a considerable challenge to predict carbon and water cycles.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {3781-3793}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13654}, pmid = {28181733}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Plant Leaves ; Plant Stomata/*physiology ; Water ; *Water Cycle ; }, abstract = {Stomata control the cycling of water and carbon between plants and the atmosphere; however, no consistent conclusions have been drawn regarding the response of stomatal frequency to climate change. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of 1854 globally obtained data series to determine the response of stomatal frequency to climate change, which including four plant life forms (over 900 species), at altitudes ranging from 0 to 4500 m and over a time span of more than one hundred thousand years. Stomatal frequency decreased with increasing CO2 concentration and increased with elevated temperature and drought stress; it was also dependent on the species and experimental conditions. The response of stomatal frequency to climate change showed a trade-off between stomatal control strategies and environmental factors, such as the CO2 concentration, temperature, and soil water availability. Moreover, threshold effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on stomatal frequency were detected, indicating that the response of stomatal density to increasing CO2 concentration will decrease over the next few years. The results also suggested that the stomatal index may be more reliable than stomatal density for determination of the historic CO2 concentration. Our findings indicate that the contrasting responses of stomata to climate change bring a considerable challenge in predicting future water and carbon cycles.}, }
@article {pmid28181588, year = {2017}, author = {Maor-Landaw, K and Waldman Ben-Asher, H and Karako-Lampert, S and Salmon-Divon, M and Prada, F and Caroselli, E and Goffredo, S and Falini, G and Dubinsky, Z and Levy, O}, title = {Mediterranean versus Red sea corals facing climate change, a transcriptome analysis.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {42405}, pmid = {28181588}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {249930/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Adherens Junctions/metabolism ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*genetics/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Computational Biology/methods ; Gene Expression Profiling ; Gene Ontology ; Indian Ocean ; Mediterranean Sea ; Reproducibility of Results ; Signal Transduction ; *Transcriptome ; }, abstract = {The anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 that drives global warming and ocean acidification raises serious concerns regarding the future of corals, the main carbonate biomineralizers. Here we used transcriptome analysis to study the effect of long-term gradual temperature increase (annual rate), combined with lowered pH values, on a sub-tropical Red Sea coral, Stylophora pistillata, and on a temperate Mediterranean symbiotic coral Balanophyllia europaea. The gene expression profiles revealed a strong effect of both temperature increase and pH decrease implying for synergism response. The temperate coral, exposed to a twice as high range of seasonal temperature fluctuations than the Red Sea species, faced stress more effectively. The compensatory strategy for coping apparently involves deviating cellular resources into a massive up-regulation of genes in general, and specifically of genes involved in the generation of metabolic energy. Our results imply that sub-lethal, prolonged exposure to stress can stimulate evolutionary increase in stress resilience.}, }
@article {pmid28179913, year = {2017}, author = {Rull, V and Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T}, title = {Potential Responses of Vascular Plants from the Pristine "Lost World" of the Neotropical Guayana Highlands to Global Warming: Review and New Perspectives.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {81}, pmid = {28179913}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The neotropical Guayana Highlands (GH) are one of the few remaining pristine environments on Earth, and they host amazing biodiversity with a high degree endemism, especially among vascular plants. Despite the lack of direct human disturbance, GH plants and their communities are threatened with extinction from habitat loss due to global warming (GW). Geographic information systems simulations involving the entire known vascular GH flora (>2430 species) predict potential GW-driven extinctions on the order of 80% by the end of this century, including nearly half of the endemic species. These estimates and the assessment of an environmental impact value for each species led to the hierarchization of plants by their risk of habitat loss and the definition of priority conservation categories. However, the predictions assume that all species will respond to GW by migrating upward and at equal rates, which is unlikely, so current estimates should be considered preliminary and incomplete (although they represent the best that can be done with the existing information). Other potential environmental forcings (i.e., precipitation shifts, an increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration) and idiosyncratic plant responses (i.e., resistance, phenotypic acclimation, rapid evolution) should also be considered, so detailed eco-physiological studies of the more threatened species are urgently needed. The main obstacles to developing such studies are the remoteness and inaccessibility of the GH and, especially, the difficulty in obtaining official permits for fieldwork.}, }
@article {pmid28179512, year = {2017}, author = {Paull, SH and Horton, DE and Ashfaq, M and Rastogi, D and Kramer, LD and Diffenbaugh, NS and Kilpatrick, AM}, title = {Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {284}, number = {1848}, pages = {}, pmid = {28179512}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Culicidae/virology ; *Droughts ; Epidemics ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*virology ; West Nile Fever/*epidemiology ; West Nile virus ; }, abstract = {The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. These results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid28173953, year = {2017}, author = {Tao, Y and Xue, B and Lei, G and Liu, F and Wang, Z}, title = {Effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {223}, number = {}, pages = {624-634}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2017.01.068}, pmid = {28173953}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Food Chain ; Lakes/*chemistry ; Phytoplankton/*metabolism ; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/analysis/*metabolism ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis/*metabolism ; Zooplankton/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {To date effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in planktonic food webs have rarely been studied. Recruitments of plankton have shifted earlier due to global warming. Global warming and precipitation patterns are projected to shift seasonally. Whether and how the shifts in plankton phenology induced by climate change will impact bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants, and how they will respond to climate change are largely unknown. Here, we combine data analysis of the past seven decades, high temporal resolution monitoring and model development to test this hypothesis with nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China. We find biphasic correlations between both bioconcentration factors and bioaccumulation factors of the PAHs and the mean temperature, which depend on the recruitment temperatures of cyanobacteria, and copepods and cladocerans. The positive correlations between bioconcentration factors, bioaccumulation factors and the mean temperature will be observed less than approximately 13-18 days by 2050-2060 due to the shifts in plankton phenology. The PAHs and their bioaccumulation and biomagnification will respond seasonally and differently to climate change. Bioaccumulation of most of the PAHs will decrease with global warming, with higher decreasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Biomagnification of most of the PAHs from phytoplankton to zooplankton will increase with global warming, with higher increasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Our study provides novel insights into bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in eutrophic waters under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid28173628, year = {2017}, author = {Sofaer, HR and Barsugli, JJ and Jarnevich, CS and Abatzoglou, JT and Talbert, MK and Miller, BW and Morisette, JT}, title = {Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {7}, pages = {2537-2553}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13653}, pmid = {28173628}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.}, }
@article {pmid28169865, year = {2017}, author = {Moulton, AD and Schramm, PJ}, title = {Climate Change and Public Health Surveillance: Toward a Comprehensive Strategy.}, journal = {Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {618-626}, pmid = {28169865}, issn = {1550-5022}, support = {CC999999//Intramural CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Population Surveillance/*methods ; Public Health/*methods ; Strategic Planning ; United States ; }, abstract = {CONTEXT: Climate change poses a host of serious threats to human health that robust public health surveillance systems can help address. It is unknown, however, whether existing surveillance systems in the United States have adequate capacity to serve that role, nor what actions may be needed to develop adequate capacity.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: Our goals were to review efforts to assess and strengthen the capacity of public health surveillance systems to support health-related adaptation to climate change in the United States and to determine whether additional efforts are warranted.<br><br>METHODS: Building on frameworks issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we specified 4 core components of public health surveillance capacity relevant to climate change health threats. Using standard methods, we next identified and analyzed multiple assessments of the existing, relevant capacity of public health surveillance systems as well as attempts to improve that capacity. We also received information from selected national public health associations.<br><br>FINDINGS: Multiple federal, state, and local public health agencies, professional associations, and researchers have made valuable, initial efforts to assess and strengthen surveillance capacity. These efforts, however, have been made by entities working independently and without the benefit of a shared conceptual framework or strategy. Their principal focus has been on identifying suitable indicators and data sources largely to the exclusion of other core components of surveillance capacity.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A more comprehensive and strategic approach is needed to build the public health surveillance capacity required to protect the health of Americans in a world of rapidly evolving climate change. Public health practitioners and policy makers at all levels can use the findings and issues reviewed in this article as they lead design and execution of a coordinated, multisector strategic plan to create and sustain that capacity.}, }
@article {pmid28169336, year = {2017}, author = {Mathias, JD and Anderies, JM and Janssen, MA}, title = {On our rapidly shrinking capacity to comply with the planetary boundaries on climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {42061}, pmid = {28169336}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis/chemistry ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Earth, Planet ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Models, Statistical ; Vehicle Emissions/analysis/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {The planetary boundary framework constitutes an opportunity for decision makers to define climate policy through the lens of adaptive governance. Here, we use the DICE model to analyze the set of adaptive climate policies that comply with the two planetary boundaries related to climate change: (1) staying below a CO2 concentration of 550 ppm until 2100 and (2) returning to 350 ppm in 2100. Our results enable decision makers to assess the following milestones: (1) a minimum of 33% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2055 in order to stay below 550 ppm by 2100 (this milestone goes up to 46% in the case of delayed policies); and (2) carbon neutrality and the effective implementation of innovative geoengineering technologies (10% negative emissions) before 2060 in order to return to 350 ppm in 2100, under the assumption of getting out of the baseline scenario without delay. Finally, we emphasize the need to use adaptive path-based approach instead of single point target for climate policy design.}, }
@article {pmid28168760, year = {2017}, author = {Lefevre, S and McKenzie, DJ and Nilsson, GE}, title = {Models projecting the fate of fish populations under climate change need to be based on valid physiological mechanisms.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {3449-3459}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13652}, pmid = {28168760}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Energy Metabolism ; Fisheries ; *Fishes/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Gills/*physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Some recent modelling papers projecting smaller fish sizes and catches in a warmer future are based on erroneous assumptions regarding (i) the scaling of gills with body mass and (ii) the energetic cost of 'maintenance'. Assumption (i) posits that insurmountable geometric constraints prevent respiratory surface areas from growing as fast as body volume. It is argued that these constraints explain allometric scaling of energy metabolism, whereby larger fishes have relatively lower mass-specific metabolic rates. Assumption (ii) concludes that when fishes reach a certain size, basal oxygen demands will not be met, because of assumption (i). We here demonstrate unequivocally, by applying accepted physiological principles with reference to the existing literature, that these assumptions are not valid. Gills are folded surfaces, where the scaling of surface area to volume is not constrained by spherical geometry. The gill surface area can, in fact, increase linearly in proportion to gill volume and body mass. We cite the large body of evidence demonstrating that respiratory surface areas in fishes reflect metabolic needs, not vice versa, which explains the large interspecific variation in scaling of gill surface areas. Finally, we point out that future studies basing their predictions on models should incorporate factors for scaling of metabolic rate and for temperature effects on metabolism, which agree with measured values, and should account for interspecific variation in scaling and temperature effects. It is possible that some fishes will become smaller in the future, but to make reliable predictions the underlying mechanisms need to be identified and sought elsewhere than in geometric constraints on gill surface area. Furthermore, to ensure that useful information is conveyed to the public and policymakers about the possible effects of climate change, it is necessary to improve communication and congruity between fish physiologists and fisheries scientists.}, }
@article {pmid28168035, year = {2017}, author = {Song, X and Zeng, X}, title = {Evaluating the responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and CO2 using dynamic global vegetation models.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {997-1008}, pmid = {28168035}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The climate has important influences on the distribution and structure of forest ecosystems, which may lead to vital feedback to climate change. However, much of the existing work focuses on the changes in carbon fluxes or water cycles due to climate change and/or atmospheric CO 2, and few studies have considered how and to what extent climate change and CO 2 influence the ecosystem structure (e.g., fractional coverage change) and the changes in the responses of ecosystems with different characteristics. In this work, two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs): IAP-DGVM coupled with CLM3 and CLM4-CNDV, were used to investigate the response of the forest ecosystem structure to changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) and CO 2 concentration. In the temperature sensitivity tests, warming reduced the global area-averaged ecosystem gross primary production in the two models, which decreased global forest area. Furthermore, the changes in tree fractional coverage (ΔFtree; %) from the two models were sensitive to the regional temperature and ecosystem structure, i.e., the mean annual temperature (MAT; °C) largely determined whether ΔFtree was positive or negative, while the tree fractional coverage (Ftree; %) played a decisive role in the amplitude of ΔFtree around the globe, and the dependence was more remarkable in IAP-DGVM. In cases with precipitation change, Ftree had a uniformly positive relationship with precipitation, especially in the transition zones of forests (30% < Ftree < 60%) for IAP-DGVM and in semiarid and arid regions for CLM4-CNDV. Moreover, ΔFtree had a stronger dependence on Ftree than on the mean annual precipitation (MAP; mm/year). It was also demonstrated that both models captured the fertilization effects of the CO 2 concentration.}, }
@article {pmid28168022, year = {2017}, author = {Sayer, EJ and Oliver, AE and Fridley, JD and Askew, AP and Mills, RT and Grime, JP}, title = {Links between soil microbial communities and plant traits in a species-rich grassland under long-term climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {855-862}, pmid = {28168022}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change can influence soil microorganisms directly by altering their growth and activity but also indirectly via effects on the vegetation, which modifies the availability of resources. Direct impacts of climate change on soil microorganisms can occur rapidly, whereas indirect effects mediated by shifts in plant community composition are not immediately apparent and likely to increase over time. We used molecular fingerprinting of bacterial and fungal communities in the soil to investigate the effects of 17 years of temperature and rainfall manipulations in a species-rich grassland near Buxton, UK. We compared shifts in microbial community structure to changes in plant species composition and key plant traits across 78 microsites within plots subjected to winter heating, rainfall supplementation, or summer drought. We observed marked shifts in soil fungal and bacterial community structure in response to chronic summer drought. Importantly, although dominant microbial taxa were largely unaffected by drought, there were substantial changes in the abundances of subordinate fungal and bacterial taxa. In contrast to short-term studies that report high resistance of soil fungi to drought, we observed substantial losses of fungal taxa in the summer drought treatments. There was moderate concordance between soil microbial communities and plant species composition within microsites. Vector fitting of community-weighted mean plant traits to ordinations of soil bacterial and fungal communities showed that shifts in soil microbial community structure were related to plant traits representing the quality of resources available to soil microorganisms: the construction cost of leaf material, foliar carbon-to-nitrogen ratios, and leaf dry matter content. Thus, our study provides evidence that climate change could affect soil microbial communities indirectly via changes in plant inputs and highlights the importance of considering long-term climate change effects, especially in nutrient-poor systems with slow-growing vegetation.}, }
@article {pmid28167756, year = {2017}, author = {Auffhammer, M and Baylis, P and Hausman, CH}, title = {Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {8}, pages = {1886-1891}, pmid = {28167756}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond [Rose S, et al. (2014) Understanding the Social Cost of Carbon: A Technical Assessment]. The empirical literature has shown significant increases in climate-driven impacts on overall consumption, yet has not focused on the cost implications of the increased intensity and frequency of extreme events driving peak demand, which is the highest load observed in a period. We use comprehensive, high-frequency data at the level of load balancing authorities to parameterize the relationship between average or peak electricity demand and temperature for a major economy. Using statistical models, we analyze multiyear data from 166 load balancing authorities in the United States. We couple the estimated temperature response functions for total daily consumption and daily peak load with 18 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climate change-driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and heterogeneous changes in consumption, with an average increase of 2.8% by end of century. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant increases in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States, assuming today's technology and electricity market fundamentals. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating capacity, suggesting additional peak capacity costs of up to 180 billion dollars by the end of the century under business-as-usual.}, }
@article {pmid28166942, year = {2017}, author = {Ober, GT and Thornber, C and Grear, J and Kolbe, JJ}, title = {Ecological differences influence the thermal sensitivity of swimming performance in two co-occurring mysid shrimp species with climate change implications.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {64}, number = {}, pages = {26-34}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2016.11.012}, pmid = {28166942}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Body Temperature ; Crustacea/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Oceans and Seas ; Species Specificity ; *Swimming ; }, abstract = {Temperature strongly affects performance in ectotherms. As ocean warming continues, performance of marine species will be impacted. Many studies have focused on how warming will impact physiology, life history, and behavior, but few studies have investigated how ecological and behavioral traits of organisms will affect their response to changing thermal environments. Here, we assessed the thermal tolerances and thermal sensitivity of swimming performance of two sympatric mysid shrimp species of the Northwest Atlantic. Neomysis americana and Heteromysis formosa overlap in habitat and many aspects of their ecological niche, but only N. americana exhibits vertical migration. In temperate coastal ecosystems, temperature stratification of the water column exposes vertical migrators to a wider range of temperatures on a daily basis. We found that N. americana had a significantly lower critical thermal minimum (CTmin) and critical thermal maximum (CTmax). However, both mysid species had a buffer of at least 4°C between their CTmax and the 100-year projection for mean summer water temperatures of 28°C. Swimming performance of the vertically migrating species was more sensitive to temperature variation, and this species exhibited faster burst swimming speeds. The generalist performance curve of H. formosa and specialist curve of N. americana are consistent with predictions based on the exposure of each species to temperature variation such that higher within-generation variability promotes specialization. However, these species violate the assumption of the specialist-generalist tradeoff in that the area under their performance curves is not constant. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating species-specific responses to temperature based on the ecology and behavior of organisms into climate change prediction models.}, }
@article {pmid28166939, year = {2017}, author = {Lah, RA and Benkendorff, K and Bucher, D}, title = {Thermal tolerance and preference of exploited turbinid snails near their range limit in a global warming hotspot.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {64}, number = {}, pages = {100-108}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2017.01.008}, pmid = {28166939}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Aquaculture ; Biomass ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Oceans and Seas ; Photoperiod ; Snails/*physiology ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Predicted global climate change has prompted numerous studies of thermal tolerances of marine species. The upper thermal tolerance is unknown for most marine species, but will determine their vulnerability to ocean warming. Gastropods in the family Turbinidae are widely harvested for human consumption. To investigate the responses of turbinid snails to future conditions we determined critical thermal maxima (CTMax) and preferred temperatures of Turbo militaris and Lunella undulata from the tropical-temperate overlap region of northern New South Wales, on the Australian east coast. CTMax were determined at two warming rates: 1°C/30min and 1°C/12h. The number of snails that lost attachment to the tank wall was recorded at each temperature increment. At the faster rate, T. militaris had a significantly higher CTMax (34.0°C) than L. undulata (32.2°C). At the slower rate the mean of both species was lower and there was no significant difference between them (29.4°C for T. militaris and 29.6°C for L. undulata). This is consistent with differences in thermal inertia possibly allowing animals to tolerate short periods at higher temperatures than is possible during longer exposure times, but other mechanisms are not discounted. The thermoregulatory behaviour of the turban snails was determined in a horizontal thermal gradient. Both species actively sought out particular temperatures along the gradient, suggesting that behavioural responses may be important in ameliorating short-term temperature changes. The preferred temperatures of both species were higher at night (24.0°C and 26.0°C) than during the day (22.0°C and 23.9°C). As the snails approached their preferred temperature, net hourly displacement decreased. Preferred temperatures were within the average seasonal seawater temperature range in this region. However, with future predicted water temperature trends, the species could experience increased periods of thermal stress, possibly exceeding CTMax and potentially leading to range contractions.}, }
@article {pmid28165276, year = {2017}, author = {Salomon, E and Preston, JL and Tannenbaum, MB}, title = {Climate change helplessness and the (de)moralization of individual energy behavior.}, journal = {Journal of experimental psychology. Applied}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {15-28}, doi = {10.1037/xap0000105}, pmid = {28165276}, issn = {1939-2192}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Emotions ; Environment ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Motivation ; }, abstract = {Although most people understand the threat of climate change, they do little to modify their own energy conservation behavior. One reason for this gap between belief and behavior may be that individual actions seem unimpactful and therefore are not morally relevant. This research investigates how climate change helplessness-belief that one's actions cannot affect climate change-can undermine the moralization of climate change and personal energy conservation. In Study 1, climate change efficacy predicted both moralization of energy use and energy conservation intentions beyond individual belief in climate change. In Studies 2 and 3, participants read information about climate change that varied in efficacy message, that is, whether individual actions (e.g., using less water, turning down heat) make a difference in the environment. Participants who read that their behavior made no meaningful impact reported weaker moralization and intentions (Study 2), and reported more energy consumption 1 week later (Study 3). Moreover, effects on intentions and actions were mediated by changes in moralization. We discuss ways to improve climate change messages to foster environmental efficacy and moralization of personal energy use. (PsycINFO Database Record}, }
@article {pmid28164815, year = {2017}, author = {Ziegler, C and Morelli, V and Fawibe, O}, title = {Climate Change and Underserved Communities.}, journal = {Primary care}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {171-184}, doi = {10.1016/j.pop.2016.09.017}, pmid = {28164815}, issn = {1558-299X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disasters ; Disease Vectors ; Health Status ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Mental Health ; Primary Health Care ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest global health threat of the twenty-first century, yet it is not widely understood as a health hazard by primary care providers in the United States. Aside from increasing displacement of populations and acute trauma resulting from increasing frequency of natural disasters, the impact of climate change on temperature stress, vector-borne illnesses, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, and mental health is significant, with disproportionate impact on underserved and marginalized populations. Primary care providers must be aware of the impact of climate change on the health of their patients and advocate for adaptation and mitigation policies for the populations they serve.}, }
@article {pmid28161909, year = {2017}, author = {Ettinger, A and HilleRisLambers, J}, title = {Competition and facilitation may lead to asymmetric range shift dynamics with climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {3921-3933}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13649}, pmid = {28161909}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Reproduction ; Seeds ; Tracheophyta/*growth &amp; development ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Forecasts of widespread range shifts with climate change stem from assumptions that climate drives species' distributions. However, local adaptation and biotic interactions also influence range limits and thus may impact range shifts. Despite the potential importance of these factors, few studies have directly tested their effects on performance at range limits. We address how population-level variation and biotic interactions may affect range shifts by transplanting seeds and seedlings of western North American conifers of different origin populations into different competitive neighborhoods within and beyond their elevational ranges and monitoring their performance. We find evidence that competition with neighboring trees limits performance within current ranges, but that interactions between adults and juveniles switch from competitive to facilitative at upper range limits. Local adaptation had weaker effects on performance that did not predictably vary with range position or seed origin. Our findings suggest that competitive interactions may slow species turnover within forests at lower range limits, whereas facilitative interactions may accelerate the pace of tree expansions upward near timberline.}, }
@article {pmid28160645, year = {2017}, author = {Regan, CM and Connor, JD and Raja Segaran, R and Meyer, WS and Bryan, BA and Ostendorf, B}, title = {Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {192}, number = {}, pages = {171-183}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.01.049}, pmid = {28160645}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Biomass ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Spatial Analysis ; }, abstract = {The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield variability is more affected than perennial biomass plantings, comparatively little of the study area is economically viable for conversion to biomass under $200/DM t, and it is not until prices exceed $200/DM t that significant areas become profitable for biomass plantings. We conclude that for biomass to become a valuable diversification option the synchronisation of products and services derived from biomass and the development of markets is vital.}, }
@article {pmid28160031, year = {2017}, author = {Jewitt, D and Goodman, PS and Erasmus, BF and O'Connor, TG and Witkowski, ET}, title = {Planning for the Maintenance of Floristic Diversity in the Face of Land Cover and Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {59}, number = {5}, pages = {792-806}, pmid = {28160031}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Plants ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {Habitat loss and climate change are primary drivers of global biodiversity loss. Species will need to track changing environmental conditions through fragmented and transformed landscapes such as KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Landscape connectivity is an important tool for maintaining resilience to global change. We develop a coarse-grained connectivity map between protected areas to aid decision-making for implementing corridors to maintain floristic diversity in the face of global change. The spatial location of corridors was prioritised using a biological underpinning of floristic composition that incorporated high beta diversity regions, important plant areas, climate refugia, and aligned to major climatic gradients driving floristic pattern. We used Linkage Mapper to develop the connectivity network. The resistance layer was based on land-cover categories with natural areas discounted according to their contribution towards meeting the biological objectives. Three corridor maps were developed; a conservative option for meeting minimum corridor requirements, an optimal option for meeting a target amount of 50% of the landscape and an option including linkages in highly transformed areas. The importance of various protected areas and critical linkages in maintaining landscape connectivity are discussed, disconnected protected areas and pinch points identified where the loss of small areas could compromise landscape connectivity. This framework is suggested as a way to conserve floristic diversity into the future and is recommended as an approach for other global connectivity initiatives. A lack of implementation of corridors will lead to further habitat loss and fragmentation, resulting in further risk to plant diversity.}, }
@article {pmid28158477, year = {2018}, author = {Rhoades, JL and Gruber, JS and Horton, B}, title = {Developing an In-depth Understanding of Elderly Adult's Vulnerability to Climate Change.}, journal = {The Gerontologist}, volume = {58}, number = {3}, pages = {567-577}, doi = {10.1093/geront/gnw167}, pmid = {28158477}, issn = {1758-5341}, mesh = {Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; *Community-Based Participatory Research ; Connecticut ; Disaster Planning ; Female ; *Floods ; Health Services Research ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Male ; *Public Policy ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF STUDY: Recent reports highlight the vulnerability of elderly adults to climate change, yet limited research has focused on this topic. To address this, the purpose of this study was to develop an in-depth understanding of elderly adult's vulnerability to climate change within the context of a specific community.<br><br>DESIGN AND METHODS: A case study methodology utilizing a community-based action research approach was employed to engage elderly participants living in Bridgeport, CT, in exploring their vulnerability to current and predicted climate stressors with a focus on extreme heat, flooding and storms, and air pollution.<br><br>RESULTS: This research identifies personal characteristics that interact with contextual factors to influence elderly adult's vulnerability to climate change. Personal characteristics include health, economic, and social considerations. Contextual factors include the adequacy of emergency preparedness measures, transportation resources, and coping and recovery resources. As a result of the interplay of these characteristics and factors, predicted climate changes could have serious consequences for Bridgeport's elderly adults.<br><br>IMPLICATIONS: This research provides a contextualized and detailed illustration of how climate change could overwhelm elderly adult's adaptive capacity and highlights the need for support services to provide safeguards. The issues and concerns raised may bear similarities to other locations, especially urban settings facing similar climate stressors with similar socioeconomic conditions. The findings suggest a need for further research to improve our understanding and serve as the basis for collaborative adaptation planning that engages elderly communities with local governments and a broad coalition of partners to keep elders safe.}, }
@article {pmid28155860, year = {2017}, author = {Meng, Q and Wang, H and Yan, P and Pan, J and Lu, D and Cui, Z and Zhang, F and Chen, X}, title = {Designing a new cropping system for high productivity and sustainable water usage under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {41587}, pmid = {28155860}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The food supply is being increasingly challenged by climate change and water scarcity. However, incremental changes in traditional cropping systems have achieved only limited success in meeting these multiple challenges. In this study, we applied a systematic approach, using model simulation and data from two groups of field studies conducted in the North China Plain, to develop a new cropping system that improves yield and uses water in a sustainable manner. Due to significant warming, we identified a double-maize (M-M; Zea mays L.) cropping system that replaced the traditional winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) -summer maize system. The M-M system improved yield by 14-31% compared with the conventionally managed wheat-maize system, and achieved similar yield compared with the incrementally adapted wheat-maize system with the optimized cultivars, planting dates, planting density and water management. More importantly, water usage was lower in the M-M system than in the wheat-maize system, and the rate of water usage was sustainable (net groundwater usage was ≤150 mm yr[-1]). Our study indicated that systematic assessment of adaptation and cropping system scale have great potential to address the multiple food supply challenges under changing climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid28150865, year = {2017}, author = {Moo-Llanes, DA and Arque-Chunga, W and Carmona-Castro, O and Yañez-Arenas, C and Yañez-Trujillano, HH and Cheverría-Pacheco, L and Baak-Baak, CM and Cáceres, AG}, title = {Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.}, journal = {Medical and veterinary entomology}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {123-131}, doi = {10.1111/mve.12219}, pmid = {28150865}, issn = {1365-2915}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Insect Vectors/*physiology ; Leishmania/physiology ; Leishmaniasis/parasitology/*transmission ; Models, Biological ; Peru ; Psychodidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis.}, }
@article {pmid28150769, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Climate change: Drop in coal use slows emissions.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {542}, number = {7639}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1038/542009e}, pmid = {28150769}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid28150767, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Climate change: Lasting heavy rains to come.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {542}, number = {7639}, pages = {8}, doi = {10.1038/542008c}, pmid = {28150767}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid28148994, year = {2017}, author = {Vetter, SH and Sapkota, TB and Hillier, J and Stirling, CM and Macdiarmid, JI and Aleksandrowicz, L and Green, R and Joy, EJ and Dangour, AD and Smith, P}, title = {Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural food production to supply Indian diets: Implications for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Agriculture, ecosystems &amp; environment}, volume = {237}, number = {}, pages = {234-241}, pmid = {28148994}, issn = {0167-8809}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. The growing global population is putting pressure on agricultural production systems that aim to secure food production while minimising GHG emissions. In this study, the GHG emissions associated with the production of major food commodities in India are calculated using the Cool Farm Tool. GHG emissions, based on farm management for major crops (including cereals like wheat and rice, pulses, potatoes, fruits and vegetables) and livestock-based products (milk, eggs, chicken and mutton meat), are quantified and compared. Livestock and rice production were found to be the main sources of GHG emissions in Indian agriculture with a country average of 5.65 kg CO2eq kg[-1] rice, 45.54 kg CO2eq kg[-1] mutton meat and 2.4 kg CO2eq kg[-1] milk. Production of cereals (except rice), fruits and vegetables in India emits comparatively less GHGs with <1 kg CO2eq kg[-1] product. These findings suggest that a shift towards dietary patterns with greater consumption of animal source foods could greatly increase GHG emissions from Indian agriculture. A range of mitigation options are available that could reduce emissions from current levels and may be compatible with increased future food production and consumption demands in India.}, }
@article {pmid28142318, year = {2017}, author = {Ciesielski, T}, title = {Climate Change and Public Health.}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {8-11}, doi = {10.1177/1048291117691075}, pmid = {28142318}, issn = {1541-3772}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Fossil Fuels ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {It is clear that the public health community is concerned about the human health impacts of climate change, but are we inadvertently underestimating the scope of the problem and obfuscating potentially useful interventions by using a narrow intellectual frame in our discussions with policy makers? If we take a more holistic approach, we see that the public health impacts of climate change are only one subset of the enormous public health impacts of fossil fuel burning. This broader perspective can provide a more accurate and comprehensive assessment that is more useful for decision making in public policy settings.}, }
@article {pmid28139649, year = {2017}, author = {Schlaepfer, DR and Bradford, JB and Lauenroth, WK and Munson, SM and Tietjen, B and Hall, SA and Wilson, SD and Duniway, MC and Jia, G and Pyke, DA and Lkhagva, A and Jamiyansharav, K}, title = {Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {14196}, pmid = {28139649}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the twenty first century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers could be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as a global study that focuses on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly populated areas.}, }
@article {pmid28139172, year = {2017}, author = {Quiller, G and Krenz, J and Ebi, K and Hess, JJ and Fenske, RA and Sampson, PD and Pan, M and Spector, JT}, title = {Heat exposure and productivity in orchards: Implications for climate change research.}, journal = {Archives of environmental &amp; occupational health}, volume = {72}, number = {6}, pages = {313-316}, pmid = {28139172}, issn = {2154-4700}, support = {K01 OH010672/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Efficiency ; *Farmers/psychology ; Female ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Humidity ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Occupational Exposure ; Occupational Health/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Washington ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Recent studies suggest that heat exposure degrades work productivity, but such studies have not considered individual- and workplace-level factors. Forty-six tree-fruit harvesters (98% Latino/a) from 6 orchards participated in a cross-sectional study in central/eastern Washington in 2015. The association between maximum measured work-shift wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGTmax) and productivity (total weight of fruit bins collected per time worked) was estimated using linear mixed-effects models, adjusting for relevant confounders. The mean (standard deviation) WBGTmax was 27.9°C (3.6°C) in August and 21.2°C (2.0°C) in September. There was a trend of decreasing productivity with increasing WBGTmax, but this association was not statistically significant. When individual- and workplace-level factors were included in the model, the association approached the null. Not considering individual, work, and economic factors that affect rest and recovery in projections of the effects of climate change could result in overestimates of reductions in future productivity and underestimate risk of heat illness.}, }
@article {pmid28139035, year = {2017}, author = {Cheal, AJ and MacNeil, MA and Emslie, MJ and Sweatman, H}, title = {The threat to coral reefs from more intense cyclones under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {4}, pages = {1511-1524}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13593}, pmid = {28139035}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Ocean warming under climate change threatens coral reefs directly, through fatal heat stress to corals and indirectly, by boosting the energy of cyclones that cause coral destruction and loss of associated organisms. Although cyclone frequency is unlikely to rise, cyclone intensity is predicted to increase globally, causing more frequent occurrences of the most destructive cyclones with potentially severe consequences for coral reef ecosystems. While increasing heat stress is considered a pervasive risk to coral reefs, quantitative estimates of threats from cyclone intensification are lacking due to limited data on cyclone impacts to inform projections. Here, using extensive data from Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we show that increases in cyclone intensity predicted for this century are sufficient to greatly accelerate coral reef degradation. Coral losses on the outer GBR were small, localized and offset by gains on undisturbed reefs for more than a decade, despite numerous cyclones and periods of record heat stress, until three unusually intense cyclones over 5 years drove coral cover to record lows over >1500 km. Ecological damage was particularly severe in the central-southern region where 68% of coral cover was destroyed over >1000 km, forcing record declines in the species richness and abundance of associated fish communities, with many local extirpations. Four years later, recovery of average coral cover was relatively slow and there were further declines in fish species richness and abundance. Slow recovery of community diversity appears likely from such a degraded starting point. Highly unusual characteristics of two of the cyclones, aside from high intensity, inflated the extent of severe ecological damage that would more typically have occurred over 100s of km. Modelling published predictions of future cyclone activity, the likelihood of more intense cyclones within time frames of coral recovery by mid-century poses a global threat to coral reefs and dependent societies.}, }
@article {pmid28135337, year = {2017}, author = {Raimi, KT and Stern, PC and Maki, A}, title = {The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {e0171130}, pmid = {28135337}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; *Comprehension ; *Decision Making ; Humans ; Meta-Analysis as Topic ; Policy ; Politics ; Reading ; Self Report ; }, abstract = {To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid28135027, year = {2017}, author = {Jin, VL and Schmer, MR and Stewart, CE and Sindelar, AJ and Varvel, GE and Wienhold, BJ}, title = {Long-term no-till and stover retention each decrease the global warming potential of irrigated continuous corn.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {7}, pages = {2848-2862}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13637}, pmid = {28135027}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; Agriculture ; *Crops, Agricultural ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Nitrous Oxide ; Soil ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Over the last 50 years, the most increase in cultivated land area globally has been due to a doubling of irrigated land. Long-term agronomic management impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and global warming potential (GWP) in irrigated systems, however, remain relatively unknown. Here, residue and tillage management effects were quantified by measuring soil nitrous oxide (N2 O) and methane (CH4) fluxes and SOC changes (ΔSOC) at a long-term, irrigated continuous corn (Zea mays L.) system in eastern Nebraska, United States. Management treatments began in 2002, and measured treatments included no or high stover removal (0 or 6.8 Mg DM ha[-1] yr[-1] , respectively) under no-till (NT) or conventional disk tillage (CT) with full irrigation (n = 4). Soil N2 O and CH4 fluxes were measured for five crop-years (2011-2015), and ΔSOC was determined on an equivalent mass basis to ~30 cm soil depth. Both area- and yield-scaled soil N2 O emissions were greater with stover retention compared to removal and for CT compared to NT, with no interaction between stover and tillage practices. Methane comprised <1% of total emissions, with NT being CH4 neutral and CT a CH4 source. Surface SOC decreased with stover removal and with CT after 14 years of management. When ΔSOC, soil GHG emissions, and agronomic energy usage were used to calculate system GWP, all management systems were net GHG sources. Conservation practices (NT, stover retention) each decreased system GWP compared to conventional practices (CT, stover removal), but pairing conservation practices conferred no additional mitigation benefit. Although cropping system, management equipment/timing/history, soil type, location, weather, and the depth to which ΔSOC is measured affect the GWP outcomes of irrigated systems at large, this long-term irrigated study provides valuable empirical evidence of how management decisions can impact soil GHG emissions and surface SOC stocks.}, }
@article {pmid28134343, year = {2017}, author = {Park, DR and Ho, CH and Chan, JC and Ha, KJ and Kim, HS and Kim, J and Kim, JH}, title = {Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {41354}, pmid = {28134343}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate.}, }
@article {pmid28132402, year = {2017}, author = {Helbig, M and Chasmer, LE and Desai, AR and Kljun, N and Quinton, WL and Sonnentag, O}, title = {Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {3231-3248}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13638}, pmid = {28132402}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Canada ; Carbon ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Taiga ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw-induced collapse-scar bog ('wetland') expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape-scale net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEELAND), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEELAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature- and light-limited NEELAND of a boreal forest-wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEELAND (-20 g C m[-2]) and wetland NEE (-24 g C m[-2]) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEELAND . In contrast, we find non-negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEELAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light-limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year-round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO2 uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO2 uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m[-2] for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m[-2] for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO2 uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO2 uptake of boreal forest-wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO2 sources under continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We conclude that NEELAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid28130557, year = {2017}, author = {Alam, GM}, title = {Livelihood Cycle and Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Change and Hazards in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {59}, number = {5}, pages = {777-791}, pmid = {28130557}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Family Characteristics ; Humans ; Poverty ; Quality of Life ; *Rural Population ; }, abstract = {Rural riverine households in Bangladesh are confronted with many climate-driven hazards, including riverbank erosion, which results in loss of productive land and other natural resources of the riverine households, and thus threatens their livelihoods and food security. This study assesses the main drivers of vulnerability and livelihood cycle of vulnerable riparian households in Bangladesh. The study utilises the IPCC framework of vulnerability and develops a weighted approach by employing the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index. The results reveal that the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index differ across locations, however, a high index value for both measures indicates the households' high livelihood vulnerability to climate change and hazards. The main drivers that influence the vulnerability dimensions are livelihood strategies and access to food, water and health facilities. These hazard-prone households are also vulnerable due to their existing low livelihood status that leads to a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of this study are crucial for policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to minimise vulnerability and to enhance the local adaptation processes in order to improve such households' livelihood across Bangladesh.}, }
@article {pmid28126515, year = {2017}, author = {Rix, MG and Cooper, SJB and Meusemann, K and Klopfstein, S and Harrison, SE and Harvey, MS and Austin, AD}, title = {Post-Eocene climate change across continental Australia and the diversification of Australasian spiny trapdoor spiders (Idiopidae: Arbanitinae).}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {109}, number = {}, pages = {302-320}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2017.01.008}, pmid = {28126515}, issn = {1095-9513}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Speciation ; New Zealand ; Phylogeny ; South Australia ; Spiders/classification/*genetics ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {The formation and spread of the Australian arid zone during the Neogene was a profoundly transformative event in the biogeographic history of Australia, resulting in extinction or range contraction in lineages adapted to mesic habitats, as well as diversification and range expansion in arid-adapted taxa (most of which evolved from mesic ancestors). However, the geographic origins of the arid zone biota are still relatively poorly understood, especially among highly diverse invertebrate lineages, many of which are themselves poorly documented at the species level. Spiny trapdoor spiders (Idiopidae: Arbanitinae) are one such lineage, having mesic 'on-the-continent' Gondwanan origins, while also having experienced major arid zone radiations in select clades. In this study, we present new orthologous nuclear markers for the phylogenetic inference of mygalomorph spiders, and use them to infer the phylogeny of Australasian Idiopidae with a 12-gene parallel tagged amplicon next-generation sequencing approach. We use these data to test the mode and timing of diversification of arid-adapted idiopid lineages across mainland Australia, and employ a continent-wide sampling of the fauna's phylogenetic and geographic diversity to facilitate ancestral area inference. We further explore the evolution of phenotypic and behavioural characters associated with both arid and mesic environments, and test an 'out of south-western Australia' hypothesis for the origin of arid zone clades. Three lineages of Idiopidae are shown to have diversified in the arid zone during the Miocene, one (genus Euoplos) exclusively in Western Australia. Arid zone Blakistonia likely had their origins in South Australia, whereas in the most widespread genus Aganippe, a more complex scenario is evident, with likely range expansion from southern Western Australia to southern South Australia, from where the bulk of the arid zone fauna then originated. In Aganippe, remarkable adaptations to phragmotic burrow-plugging in transitional arid zone taxa have evolved twice independently in Western Australia, while in Misgolas and Cataxia, burrow door-building behaviours have likely been independently lost at least three times in the eastern Australian mesic zone. We also show that the presence of idiopids in New Zealand (Cantuaria) is likely to be the result of recent dispersal from Australia, rather than ancient continental vicariance. By providing the first comprehensive, continental synopsis of arid zone biogeography in an Australian arachnid lineage, we show that the diversification of arbanitine Idiopidae was intimately associated with climate shifts during the Neogene, resulting in multiple Mio-Pliocene radiations.}, }
@article {pmid28126409, year = {2017}, author = {Webster, MS and Colton, MA and Darling, ES and Armstrong, J and Pinsky, ML and Knowlton, N and Schindler, DE}, title = {Who Should Pick the Winners of Climate Change?.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {32}, number = {3}, pages = {167-173}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2016.12.007}, pmid = {28126409}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Many conservation strategies identify a narrow subset of genotypes, species, or geographic locations that are predicted to be favored under different scenarios of future climate change. However, a focus on predicted winners, which might not prove to be correct, risks undervaluing the balance of biological diversity from which climate-change winners could otherwise emerge. Drawing on ecology, evolutionary biology, and portfolio theory, we propose a conservation approach designed to promote adaptation that is less dependent on uncertain predictions about the identity of winners and losers. By designing actions to facilitate numerous opportunities for selection across biological and environmental conditions, we can allow nature to pick the winners and increase the probability that ecosystems continue to provide services to humans and other species.}, }
@article {pmid28125659, year = {2017}, author = {Aukema, JE and Pricope, NG and Husak, GJ and Lopez-Carr, D}, title = {Biodiversity Areas under Threat: Overlap of Climate Change and Population Pressures on the World's Biodiversity Priorities.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {e0170615}, pmid = {28125659}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Africa ; Agriculture ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Sri Lanka ; }, abstract = {Humans and the ecosystem services they depend on are threatened by climate change. Places with high or growing human population as well as increasing climate variability, have a reduced ability to provide ecosystem services just as the need for these services is most critical. A spiral of vulnerability and ecosystem degradation often ensues in such places. We apply different global conservation schemes as proxies to examine the spatial relation between wet season precipitation, population change over three decades, and natural resource conservation. We pose two research questions: 1) Where are biodiversity and ecosystem services vulnerable to the combined effects of climate change and population growth? 2) Where are human populations vulnerable to degraded ecosystem services? Results suggest that globally only about 20% of the area between 50 degrees latitude North and South has experienced significant change-largely wetting-in wet season precipitation. Approximately 40% of rangelands and 30% of rainfed agriculture lands have experienced significant precipitation changes, with important implications for food security. Over recent decades a number of critical conservation areas experienced high population growth concurrent with significant wetting or drying (e.g. the Horn of Africa, Himalaya, Western Ghats, and Sri Lanka), posing challenges not only for human adaptation but also to the protection and sustenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying areas of climate and population risk and their overlap with conservation priorities can help to target activities and resources that promote biodiversity and ecosystem services while improving human well-being.}, }
@article {pmid28125385, year = {2017}, author = {Levy, BS and Sidel, VW and Patz, JA}, title = {Climate Change and Collective Violence.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {38}, number = {}, pages = {241-257}, pmid = {28125385}, issn = {1545-2093}, support = {P2C HD047873/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Violence ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and}, }
@article {pmid28125383, year = {2017}, author = {Myers, SS and Smith, MR and Guth, S and Golden, CD and Vaitla, B and Mueller, ND and Dangour, AD and Huybers, P}, title = {Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {38}, number = {}, pages = {259-277}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044356}, pmid = {28125383}, issn = {1545-2093}, support = {106864MA//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 106924//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Food ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Malnutrition ; }, abstract = {Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.}, }
@article {pmid28124708, year = {2017}, author = {, }, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: Progress report, 2016.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {107-145}, pmid = {28124708}, issn = {1474-9092}, support = {EPA999999//Intramural EPA/United States ; }, mesh = {Autoimmune Diseases/etiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ozone/chemistry/*metabolism ; Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology/etiology ; Ultraviolet Rays ; Vitamin D/metabolism ; }, abstract = {The Parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three Panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with two focal issues. The first focus is the effects of UV radiation on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The second focus is on interactions between UV radiation and global climate change and how these may affect humans and the environment. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously believed. As a result of this, human health and environmental issues will be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other Panels, the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was published as a series of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). In the years in between, the EEAP produces less detailed and shorter Progress Reports of the relevant scientific findings. The most recent of these was for 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2016, 15, 141-147). The present Progress Report for 2016 assesses some of the highlights and new insights with regard to the interactive nature of the direct and indirect effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change. The more detailed Quadrennial Assessment will be made available in 2018.}, }
@article {pmid28118858, year = {2017}, author = {Kumar, S and Yadav, A and Yadav, M and Yadav, JP}, title = {Effect of climate change on phytochemical diversity, total phenolic content and in vitro antioxidant activity of Aloe vera (L.) Burm.f.}, journal = {BMC research notes}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {60}, pmid = {28118858}, issn = {1756-0500}, mesh = {Aloe/*chemistry ; Antioxidants/*analysis ; Biphenyl Compounds/chemistry ; Chelating Agents/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Free Radical Scavengers/chemistry ; Geography ; Hydrogen Peroxide/chemistry ; Phenols/*analysis ; Phytochemicals/*analysis ; Picrates/chemistry ; Plant Extracts/chemistry ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to analyse the effect of climate change on phytochemicals, total phenolic content (TPC) and antioxidant potential of methanolic extracts of Aloe vera collected from different climatic zones of the India.<br><br>METHODS: Crude methanolic extracts of A. vera from the different states of India were screened for presence of various phytochemicals, total phenolic content and in vitro antioxidant activity. Total phenolic content was tested by Folin-Ciocalteau reagent based assay whilst DPPH free radical scavenging assay, metal chelating assay, hydrogen peroxide scavenging assay, reducing power assay and &#x3b2; carotene-linoleic assay were used to assess the antioxidant potential of A. vera methanolic leaf extracts.<br><br>RESULTS: Alkaloids, phenols, flavonoids, saponins, and terpenes were the main phytochemicals presents in all accessions. A significant positive correlation was found between TPC and antioxidant activity of different accessions. Extracts of highland and semi-arid zones possessed maximum antioxidant potential. Accessions from tropical zones showed the least antioxidant activity in all assays.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: It could be concluded that different agro-climatic conditions have effects on the phytochemicals, total phenolic content (TPC) and antioxidant potential of the A. vera plant. The results reveal that A. vera can be a potential source of novel natural antioxidant compounds.}, }
@article {pmid28117324, year = {2017}, author = {Pan, Y and Li, L and Jiang, X and Li, G and Zhang, W and Wang, X and Ingersoll, AP}, title = {Earth's changing global atmospheric energy cycle in response to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {14367}, pmid = {28117324}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {The Lorenz energy cycle is widely used to investigate atmospheres and climates on planets. However, the long-term temporal variations of such an energy cycle have not yet been explored. Here we use three independent meteorological data sets from the modern satellite era, to examine the temporal characteristics of the Lorenz energy cycle of Earth's global atmosphere in response to climate change. The total mechanical energy of the global atmosphere basically remains constant with time, but the global-average eddy energies show significant positive trends. The spatial investigations suggest that these positive trends are concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere. Significant positive trends are also found in the conversion, generation and dissipation rates of energies. The positive trends in the dissipation rates of kinetic energies suggest that the efficiency of the global atmosphere as a heat engine increased during the modern satellite era.}, }
@article {pmid28116691, year = {2017}, author = {Abermann, J and Hansen, B and Lund, M and Wacker, S and Karami, M and Cappelen, J}, title = {Hotspots and key periods of Greenland climate change during the past six decades.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {46}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {3-11}, pmid = {28116691}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Air Pressure ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring ; Geography ; Greenland ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {We investigated air temperature and pressure gradients and their trends for the period 1996-2014 in Greenland and compared these to other periods since 1958. Both latitudinal temperature and pressure gradients were strongest during winter. An overall temperature increase up to 0.15 °C year[-1] was observed for 1996-2014. The strongest warming happened during February at the West coast (up to 0.6 °C year[-1]), weaker but consistent and significant warming occurred during summer months (up to 0.3 °C year[-1]) both in West and East Greenland. Pressure trends on a monthly basis were mainly negative, but largely statistically non-significant. Compared with other time windows in the past six decades, the period 1996-2014 yielded an above-average warming trend. Northeast Greenland and the area around Zackenberg follow the general pattern but are on the lower boundary of observed significant trends in Greenland. We conclude that temperature-driven ecosystem changes as observed in Zackenberg may well be exceeded in other areas of Greenland.}, }
@article {pmid28116685, year = {2017}, author = {Hobbie, JE and Shaver, GR and Rastetter, EB and Cherry, JE and Goetz, SJ and Guay, KC and Gould, WA and Kling, GW}, title = {Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {46}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {160-173}, pmid = {28116685}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Alaska ; Arctic Regions ; Biodiversity ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring ; *Ecosystem ; Greenland ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Long-term measurements of ecological effects of warming are often not statistically significant because of annual variability or signal noise. These are reduced in indicators that filter or reduce the noise around the signal and allow effects of climate warming to emerge. In this way, certain indicators act as medium pass filters integrating the signal over years-to-decades. In the Alaskan Arctic, the 25-year record of warming of air temperature revealed no significant trend, yet environmental and ecological changes prove that warming is affecting the ecosystem. The useful indicators are deep permafrost temperatures, vegetation and shrub biomass, satellite measures of canopy reflectance (NDVI), and chemical measures of soil weathering. In contrast, the 18-year record in the Greenland Arctic revealed an extremely high summer air-warming of 1.3 °C/decade; the cover of some plant species increased while the cover of others decreased. Useful indicators of change are NDVI and the active layer thickness.}, }
@article {pmid28116684, year = {2017}, author = {Marbà, N and Krause-Jensen, D and Olesen, B and Christensen, PB and Merzouk, A and Rodrigues, J and Wegeberg, S and Wilce, RT}, title = {Climate change stimulates the growth of the intertidal macroalgae Ascophyllum nodosum near the northern distribution limit.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {46}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {119-131}, pmid = {28116684}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Ascophyllum/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring ; Geography ; Greenland ; Ice Cover ; Norway ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Ascophyllum nodosum is a foundation macroalgae of the intertidal zone that distributes across latitude 41.3-69.7°N. We tested the hypothesis that growth of A. nodosum near the northern distribution edge increases with warming. We retrospectively quantified the growth of eight A. nodosum populations at West Greenland and North Norway (from 64°N to 69°N). For seven populations, we measured growth rates since 1997-2002 and for one of them we extended the time series back to 1956 using published estimates. Individuals at northern populations elongated between 2.0 and 9.1 cm year[-1] and this variability correlated with temperature and annual ice-free days. A spatial comparison of A. nodosum growth across the species distribution range showed that Northern (and coldest) populations grew at the slowest rates. Our results demonstrate that arctic climate change enhances the growth of A. nodosum populations and suggest that their productivity may increase in response to projected global warming.}, }
@article {pmid28116056, year = {2017}, author = {Gong, M and Guan, T and Hou, M and Liu, G and Zhou, T}, title = {Hopes and challenges for giant panda conservation under climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {596-605}, pmid = {28116056}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {One way that climate change will impact animal distributions is by altering habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation. Understanding the impacts of climate change on currently threatened species is of immediate importance because complex conservation planning will be required. Here, we mapped changes to the distribution, suitability, and fragmentation of giant panda habitat under climate change and quantified the direction and elevation of habitat shift and fragmentation patterns. These data were used to develop a series of new conservation strategies for the giant panda. Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, China. Data from the most recent giant panda census, habitat factors, anthropogenic disturbance, climate variables, and climate predictions for the year 2050 (averaged across four general circulation models) were used to project giant panda habitat in Maxent. Differences in habitat patches were compared between now and 2050. While climate change will cause a 9.1% increase in suitable habitat and 9% reduction in subsuitable habitat by 2050, no significant net variation in the proportion of suitable and subsuitable habitat was found. However, a distinct climate change-induced habitat shift of 11 km eastward by 2050 is predicted firstly. Climate change will reduce the fragmentation of suitable habitat at high elevations and exacerbate the fragmentation of subsuitable habitat below 1,900 m above sea level. Reduced fragmentation at higher elevations and worsening fragmentation at lower elevations have the potential to cause overcrowding of giant pandas at higher altitudes, further exacerbating habitat shortage in the central Qinling Mountains. The habitat shift to the east due to climate change may provide new areas for giant pandas but poses severe challenges for future conservation.}, }
@article {pmid28115693, year = {2017}, author = {Neelin, JD and Sahany, S and Stechmann, SN and Bernstein, DN}, title = {Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {6}, pages = {1258-1263}, pmid = {28115693}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.}, }
@article {pmid28112402, year = {2017}, author = {Abbott, RE and Doak, DF and DeMarche, ML}, title = {Portfolio effects, climate change, and the persistence of small populations: analyses on the rare plant Saussurea weberi.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {98}, number = {4}, pages = {1071-1081}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.1738}, pmid = {28112402}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology ; Population Dynamics ; *Saussurea ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The mechanisms that stabilize small populations in the face of environmental variation are crucial to their long-term persistence. Building from diversity-stability concepts in community ecology, within-population diversity is gaining attention as an important component of population stability. Genetic and microhabitat variation within populations can generate diverse responses to common environmental fluctuations, dampening temporal variability across the population as a whole through portfolio effects. Yet, the potential for portfolio effects to operate at small scales within populations or to change with systematic environmental shifts, such as climate change, remain largely unexplored. We tracked the abundance of a rare alpine perennial plant, Saussurea weberi, in 49 1-m[2] plots within a single population over 20 yr. We estimated among-plot correlations in log annual growth rate to test for population-level synchrony and quantify portfolio effects across the 20-yr study period and also in 5-yr subsets based on June temperature quartiles. Asynchrony among plots, due to different plot-level responses to June temperature, reduced overall fluctuations in abundance and the probability of decline in population models, even when accounting for the effects of density dependence on dynamics. However, plots became more synchronous and portfolio effects decreased during the warmest years of the study, suggesting that future climate warming may erode stabilizing mechanisms in populations of this rare plant.}, }
@article {pmid28111525, year = {2017}, author = {Dullinger, I and Wessely, J and Bossdorf, O and Dawson, W and Essl, F and Gattringer, A and Klonner, G and Kreft, H and Kuttner, M and Moser, D and Pergl, J and Pyšek, P and Thuiller, W and van Kleunen, M and Weigelt, P and Winter, M and Dullinger, S and Beaumont, L}, title = {Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe.}, journal = {Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {43-53}, pmid = {28111525}, issn = {1466-822X}, abstract = {AIM: Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate.<br><br>LOCATION: Europe.<br><br>METHODS: We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation.<br><br>RESULTS: Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in&#x2009;>&#x2009;5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid28111479, year = {2017}, author = {Thom, D and Rammer, W and Dirnböck, T and Müller, J and Kobler, J and Katzensteiner, K and Helm, N and Seidl, R}, title = {The impacts of climate change and disturbance on spatio-temporal trajectories of biodiversity in a temperate forest landscape.}, journal = {The Journal of applied ecology}, volume = {54}, number = {1}, pages = {28-38}, pmid = {28111479}, issn = {0021-8901}, support = {P 25503/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, abstract = {1. The ongoing changes to climate challenge the conservation of forest biodiversity. Yet, in thermally limited systems, such as temperate forests, not all species groups might be affected negatively. Furthermore, simultaneous changes in the disturbance regime have the potential to mitigate climate-related impacts on forest species. Here, we (i) investigated the potential long-term effect of climate change on biodiversity in a mountain forest landscape, (ii) assessed the effects of different disturbance frequencies, severities and sizes and (iii) identified biodiversity hotspots at the landscape scale to facilitate conservation management. 2. We employed the model iLand to dynamically simulate the tree vegetation on 13 865 ha of the Kalkalpen National Park in Austria over 1000 years, and investigated 36 unique combinations of different disturbance and climate scenarios. We used simulated changes in tree cover and composition as well as projected temperature and precipitation to predict changes in the diversity of Araneae, Carabidae, ground vegetation, Hemiptera, Hymenoptera, Mollusca, saproxylic beetles, Symphyta and Syrphidae, using empirical response functions. 3. Our findings revealed widely varying responses of biodiversity indicators to climate change. Five indicators showed overall negative effects, with Carabidae, saproxylic beetles and tree species diversity projected to decrease by more than 33%. Six indicators responded positively to climate change, with Hymenoptera, Mollusca and Syrphidae diversity projected to increase more than twofold. 4. Disturbances were generally beneficial for the studied indicators of biodiversity. Our results indicated that increasing disturbance frequency and severity have a positive effect on biodiversity, while increasing disturbance size has a moderately negative effect. Spatial hotspots of biodiversity were currently found in low- to mid-elevation areas of the mountainous study landscape, but shifted to higher-elevation zones under changing climate conditions. 5.Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight that intensifying disturbance regimes may alleviate some of the impacts of climate change on forest biodiversity. However, the projected shift in biodiversity hotspots is a challenge for static conservation areas. In this regard, overlapping hotspots under current and expected future conditions highlight priority areas for robust conservation management.}, }
@article {pmid28110630, year = {2017}, author = {Raila, EM and Anderson, DO}, title = {Healthcare waste management during disasters and its effects on climate change: Lessons from 2010 earthquake and cholera tragedies in Haiti.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {35}, number = {3}, pages = {236-245}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X16682312}, pmid = {28110630}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Cholera/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Earthquakes ; Haiti/epidemiology ; Humans ; Medical Waste/*analysis ; Risk ; *Waste Management ; }, abstract = {Despite growing effects of human activities on climate change throughout the world, and global South in particular, scientists are yet to understand how poor healthcare waste management practices in an emergency influences the climate change. This article presents new findings on climate change risks of healthcare waste disposal during and after the 2010 earthquake and cholera disasters in Haiti. The researchers analysed quantities of healthcare waste incinerated by the United Nations Mission in Haiti for 60 months (2009 to 2013). The aim was to determine the relationship between healthcare waste incinerated weights and the time of occurrence of the two disasters, and associated climate change effects, if any. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient indicated a weak correlation between the quantities of healthcare waste disposed of and the time of occurrence of the actual emergencies (r (58) = 0.406, p = 0.001). Correspondingly, linear regression analysis indicated a relatively linear data trend (R[2] = 0.16, F (1, 58) = 11.42, P = 0.001) with fluctuating scenarios that depicted a sharp rise in 2012, and time series model showed monthly and yearly variations within 60 months. Given that the peak healthcare waste incineration occurred 2 years after the 2010 disasters, points at the need to minimise wastage on pharmaceuticals by improving logistics management. The Government of Haiti had no data on healthcare waste disposal and practised smoky open burning, thus a need for capacity building on green healthcare waste management technologies for effective climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid28107778, year = {2017}, author = {Monteiro, N and Cunha, M and Ferreira, L and Vieira, N and Antunes, A and Lyons, D and Jones, AG}, title = {Parabolic variation in sexual selection intensity across the range of a cold-water pipefish: implications for susceptibility to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {3600-3609}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13630}, pmid = {28107778}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; Fishes ; Reproduction ; Selection, Genetic ; Sex Characteristics ; Water ; }, abstract = {While an understanding of evolutionary processes in shifting environments is vital in the context of rapid ecological change, one of the most potent selective forces, sexual selection, remains curiously unexplored. Variation in sexual selection across a species range, especially across a gradient of temperature regimes, has the potential to provide a window into the possible impacts of climate change on the evolution of mating patterns. Here, we investigated some of the links between temperature and indicators of sexual selection, using a cold-water pipefish as model. We found that populations differed with respect to body size, length of the breeding season, fecundity, and sexual dimorphism across a wide latitudinal gradient. We encountered two types of latitudinal patterns, either linear, when related to body size, or parabolic in shape when considering variables related to sexual selection intensity, such as sexual dimorphism and reproductive investment. Our results suggest that sexual selection intensity increases toward both edges of the distribution and that the large differences in temperature likely play a significant role. Shorter breeding seasons in the north and reduced periods for gamete production in the south certainly have the potential to alter mating systems, breeding synchrony, and mate monopolization rates. As latitude and water temperature are tightly coupled across the European coasts, the observed patterns in traits related to sexual selection can lead to predictions regarding how sexual selection should change in response to climate change. Based on data from extant populations, we can predict that as the worm pipefish moves northward, a wave of decreasing selection intensity will likely replace the strong sexual selection at the northern range margin. In contrast, the southern populations will be followed by heightened sexual selection, which may exacerbate the problem of local extinction at this retreating boundary.}, }
@article {pmid28107563, year = {2018}, author = {Pérez-Jiménez, M and Hernández-Munuera, M and Piñero, MC and López-Ortega, G and Del Amor, FM}, title = {Are commercial sweet cherry rootstocks adapted to climate change? Short-term waterlogging and CO2 effects on sweet cherry cv. 'Burlat'.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {41}, number = {5}, pages = {908-918}, doi = {10.1111/pce.12920}, pmid = {28107563}, issn = {1365-3040}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Carbon Dioxide/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Floods ; Oxygen/*metabolism ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Plant Roots/physiology ; Prunus avium/*physiology ; Stress, Physiological ; Time Factors ; Water/*physiology ; }, abstract = {High CO2 is able to ameliorate some negative effects due to climate change and intensify others. This study involves the sweet cherry (Prunus avium) cultivar 'Burlat' grafted on the 'Mariana 2624', 'Adara' and 'LC 52' rootstocks. In a climate chamber at two CO2 concentrations, ambient (400 µmol mol[-1]) and elevated (800 µmol mol[-1]), the plants were submitted to waterlogging for 7 d, followed by 7 d of recovery after drainage. Waterlogging drastically decreased the rate of photosynthesis, significantly endangering plant survival, particularly for the 'LC 52' and 'Adara' rootstocks. 'Mariana 2624' was also clearly affected by waterlogging that increased lipid peroxidation and the Cl[-] and SO4[2-] concentrations in all the studied plants. Nevertheless, CO2 was able to overcome this reduction in photosynthesis, augmenting growth, increasing soluble sugars and starch, raising turgor and regulating the concentrations of Cl[-] and SO4[2-] , while lowering the NO3[-] concentration in leaves of all the studied rootstocks. In concordance with these results, the proline levels indicated a more intense stress at control CO2 than at high CO2 for waterlogged plants. 'Mariana 2624' was more resistant to waterlogging than 'Adara', and both were more resistant than 'LC 52' in control CO2 conditions; this clearly enhanced the chance of survival under hypoxia.}, }
@article {pmid28105701, year = {2017}, author = {Hotaling, S and Finn, DS and Joseph Giersch, J and Weisrock, DW and Jacobsen, D}, title = {Climate change and alpine stream biology: progress, challenges, and opportunities for the future.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {92}, number = {4}, pages = {2024-2045}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12319}, pmid = {28105701}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; Genomics ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {In alpine regions worldwide, climate change is dramatically altering ecosystems and affecting biodiversity in many ways. For streams, receding alpine glaciers and snowfields, paired with altered precipitation regimes, are driving shifts in hydrology, species distributions, basal resources, and threatening the very existence of some habitats and biota. Alpine streams harbour substantial species and genetic diversity due to significant habitat insularity and environmental heterogeneity. Climate change is expected to affect alpine stream biodiversity across many levels of biological resolution from micro- to macroscopic organisms and genes to communities. Herein, we describe the current state of alpine stream biology from an organism-focused perspective. We begin by reviewing seven standard and emerging approaches that combine to form the current state of the discipline. We follow with a call for increased synthesis across existing approaches to improve understanding of how these imperiled ecosystems are responding to rapid environmental change. We then take a forward-looking viewpoint on how alpine stream biologists can make better use of existing data sets through temporal comparisons, integrate remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technologies, and apply genomic tools to refine knowledge of underlying evolutionary processes. We conclude with comments about the future of biodiversity conservation in alpine streams to confront the daunting challenge of mitigating the effects of rapid environmental change in these sentinel ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid28104829, year = {2017}, author = {Hopkinson, NS and Hart, N and Jenkins, G and Kaminski, N and Rosenfeld, M and Smyth, A and Wilkinson, A}, title = {Climate change and lung health: the challenge for a new president.}, journal = {Thorax}, volume = {72}, number = {4}, pages = {295-296}, doi = {10.1136/thoraxjnl-2017-209978}, pmid = {28104829}, issn = {1468-3296}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; Humans ; Lung Diseases/*epidemiology ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid28104175, year = {2017}, author = {Gupta, V and Mason-Sharma, A and Caty, SN and Kerry, V}, title = {Adapting global health aid in the face of climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Global health}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {e133-e134}, doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30002-5}, pmid = {28104175}, issn = {2214-109X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health/*economics ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid28102247, year = {2017}, author = {}, title = {Climate change: Sea-level rise for centuries to come.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {541}, number = {7637}, pages = {262-263}, doi = {10.1038/541262d}, pmid = {28102247}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid28100818, year = {2017}, author = {Brodie, JF and Strimas-Mackey, M and Mohd-Azlan, J and Granados, A and Bernard, H and Giordano, AJ and Helmy, OE}, title = {Lowland biotic attrition revisited: body size and variation among climate change 'winners' and 'losers'.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {284}, number = {1847}, pages = {}, pmid = {28100818}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Body Size ; Borneo ; *Climate Change ; *Mammals ; Rainforest ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities-currently the most diverse on Earth-may become depauperate ('biotic attrition'). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely.}, }
@article {pmid28098198, year = {2017}, author = {Cho, SJ and McCarl, BA}, title = {Climate change influences on crop mix shifts in the United States.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {40845}, pmid = {28098198}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {We examine the impact of current and future climate on crop mixes over space in the US. We find using historical data that temperature and precipitation are among the causal factors for shits in crop production location and mixes, with some crops being more sensitive than others. In particular, we find that when temperature rises, cotton, rice, sorghum and winter wheat are more likely to be chosen. We also find that barley, sorghum, winter wheat, spring wheat and hay are more likely to be chosen as regions become drier, and corn, cotton, rice and soybeans are more likely to be selected in wetter regions. Additionally, we assess how much of the observed crop mix shifts between 1970 and 2010 were contributed to by climate change. There we find climate explains about 7-50% of the shift in latitude, 20-36% in longitude and 4-28% of that in elevation. Finally, we estimate climate change impacts on future crop mix under CMIP5 scenarios. There we find shifts in US production regions for almost all major crops with the movement north and east. The estimates describe how the farmers respond to altering climate and can be used for planning future crop allocations.}, }
@article {pmid28092757, year = {2017}, author = {Ellis, NR and Albrecht, GA}, title = {Climate change threats to family farmers' sense of place and mental wellbeing: A case study from the Western Australian Wheatbelt.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {175}, number = {}, pages = {161-168}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2017.01.009}, pmid = {28092757}, issn = {1873-5347}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Family/*psychology ; Farmers/*psychology ; Female ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Risk Assessment ; *Stress, Psychological ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {'Sense of place' has become a central concept in the analysis of the cultural, personal and mental health risks posed by a changing climate. However, such place-related understandings of mental health and wellbeing remain largely limited to Indigenous health contexts. In this article we argue the relevance of sense of place in understanding the mental health impacts of climate change on family farmers who retain close living and working relationships to the land. We conducted a community-based qualitative case study located in the Western Australian Wheatbelt - a region that has experienced some of the most significant climate change in Australia. A three-part interview series was conducted with 22 family farmers between February 2013 and April 2014, and 15 interviews with various agricultural and mental health key informants. The research findings reveal that recently observed patterns of climate change have exacerbated farmers' worries about the weather, undermined notions of self-identity, and contributed to cumulative and chronic forms of place-based distress, culminating in heightened perceived risk of depression and suicide. The research findings highlight the tightly coupled ecosystem health-human health relationships that exist for family farmers living in regions affected by climate change, as well as the significance of farmers' place-based attachments and identities for their mental health and wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid28088545, year = {2017}, author = {Deng, Y and Wang, M and Yousefpour, R}, title = {How do people's perceptions and climatic disaster experiences influence their daily behaviors regarding adaptation to climate change? - A case study among young generations.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {581-582}, number = {}, pages = {840-847}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.022}, pmid = {28088545}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Adolescent ; *Behavior ; China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Disasters ; *Droughts ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Psychological Theory ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Adaptation is a commonly applied strategy used to address individual behavior changes, in response to climate change. However, in-depth, evidence-based investigations of the relationships among individual perceptions, climatic disaster experiences, and daily behaviors regarding adaptation to climate change remain to be conducted. We obtained survey data from 488 respondents in southwestern China, a region prone to frequent and severe droughts, to assess factors that influence adaptive behaviors and to identify their pathways. We applied Construal Level Theory (CLT) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to differentiate between respondents' high-level abstract construals and their low-level concrete construals. We analyzed the influences of these two levels of perception, combined with drought experiences on water-saving behaviors. We developed a structural equation model to estimate the correlation coefficients of the latent and observed variables in the structural process linked to the respondents' adaptive behaviors. The results found that a concrete perception of saving water plays a more significant part than an abstract perception of climate change in prompting specific adaptive behaviors. Improving public perceptions of climate change might increase the desirability of adaptation, whereas improving perceptions of water saving might increase the feasibility of implementing adaptive measures. Experience influenced individual behaviors, but that influence was indirect through its effects on perceptions.}, }
@article {pmid28080981, year = {2016}, author = {Stenlid, J and Oliva, J}, title = {Phenotypic interactions between tree hosts and invasive forest pathogens in the light of globalization and climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {371}, number = {1709}, pages = {}, pmid = {28080981}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Ascomycota/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Commerce ; Forests ; *Host-Pathogen Interactions ; *Internationality ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; Sweden ; Trees/*microbiology ; }, abstract = {Invasive pathogens can cause considerable damage to forest ecosystems. Lack of coevolution is generally thought to enable invasive pathogens to bypass the defence and/or recognition systems in the host. Although mostly true, this argument fails to predict intermittent outcomes in space and time, underlining the need to include the roles of the environment and the phenotype in host-pathogen interactions when predicting disease impacts. We emphasize the need to consider host-tree imbalances from a phenotypic perspective, considering the lack of coevolutionary and evolutionary history with the pathogen and the environment, respectively. We describe how phenotypic plasticity and plastic responses to environmental shifts may become maladaptive when hosts are faced with novel pathogens. The lack of host-pathogen and environmental coevolution are aligned with two global processes currently driving forest damage: globalization and climate change, respectively. We suggest that globalization and climate change act synergistically, increasing the chances of both genotypic and phenotypic imbalances. Short moves on the same continent are more likely to be in balance than if the move is from another part of the world. We use Gremmeniella abietina outbreaks in Sweden to exemplify how host-pathogen phenotypic interactions can help to predict the impacts of specific invasive and emergent diseases.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'.}, }
@article {pmid28079167, year = {2017}, author = {Huai, J}, title = {Corrigendum: Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {40456}, doi = {10.1038/srep40456}, pmid = {28079167}, issn = {2045-2322}, }
@article {pmid28079074, year = {2017}, author = {Mutke, J and Böhnert, T and Weigend, M}, title = {Climate change: Save last cloud forests in western Andes.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {541}, number = {7636}, pages = {157}, pmid = {28079074}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid28078520, year = {2017}, author = {Xu, G and Liu, X and Wang, Q and Xiong, R and Hang, Y}, title = {Effects of screenhouse cultivation and organic materials incorporation on global warming potential in rice fields.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {24}, number = {7}, pages = {6581-6591}, pmid = {28078520}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Biofuels/analysis ; *Fertilizers ; *Global Warming ; Methane/*analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Global rice production will be increasingly challenged by providing healthy food for a growing population at minimal environmental cost. In this study, a 2-year field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of a novel rice cultivation mode (screenhouse cultivation, SHC) and organic material (OM) incorporation (wheat straw and wheat straw-based biogas residue) on methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and rice yields. In addition, the environmental factors and soil properties were also determined. Relative to the traditional open-field cultivation (OFC), SHC decreased the CH4 and N2O emissions by 6.58-18.73 and 2.51-21.35%, respectively, and the global warming potential (GWP) was reduced by 6.49-18.65%. This trend was mainly because of lower soil temperature and higher soil redox potential in SHC. Although the rice grain yield for SHC were reduced by 2.51-4.98% compared to the OFC, the CH4 emissions and GWP per unit of grain yield (yield-scaled CH4 emissions and GWP) under SHC were declined. Compared to use of inorganic fertilizer only (IN), combining inorganic fertilizer with wheat straw (WS) or wheat straw-based biogas residue (BR) improved rice grain yield by 2.12-4.10 and 4.68-5.89%, respectively. However, OM incorporation enhanced CH4 emissions and GWP, leading to higher yield-scaled CH4 emissions and GWP in WS treatment. Due to rice yield that is relatively high, there was no obvious effect of BR treatment on them. These findings suggest that apparent environmental benefit can be realized by applying SHC and fermenting straw aerobically before its incorporation.}, }
@article {pmid28076360, year = {2017}, author = {Karmalkar, AV and Bradley, RS}, title = {Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {e0168697}, pmid = {28076360}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Models, Theoretical ; Northwestern United States ; *Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is negligible throughout the twenty-first century compared to uncertainties associated with internal variability and model diversity.}, }
@article {pmid28075011, year = {2017}, author = {Pasanen-Mortensen, M and Elmhagen, B and Lindén, H and Bergström, R and Wallgren, M and van der Velde, Y and Cousins, SA}, title = {The changing contribution of top-down and bottom-up limitation of mesopredators during 220 years of land use and climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {86}, number = {3}, pages = {566-576}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12633}, pmid = {28075011}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Finland ; *Food Chain ; Foxes/*physiology ; Lynx/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {Apex predators may buffer bottom-up driven ecosystem change, as top-down suppression may dampen herbivore and mesopredator responses to increased resource availability. However, theory suggests that for this buffering capacity to be realized, the equilibrium abundance of apex predators must increase. This raises the question: will apex predators maintain herbivore/mesopredator limitation, if bottom-up change relaxes resource constraints? Here, we explore changes in mesopredator (red fox Vulpes vulpes) abundance over 220 years in response to eradication and recovery of an apex predator (Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx), and changes in land use and climate which are linked to resource availability. A three-step approach was used. First, recent data from Finland and Sweden were modelled to estimate linear effects of lynx density, land use and winter temperature on fox density. Second, lynx density, land use and winter temperature was estimated in a 22 650 km[2] focal area in boreal and boreo-nemoral Sweden in the years 1830, 1920, 2010 and 2050. Third, the models and estimates were used to project historic and future fox densities in the focal area. Projected fox density was lowest in 1830 when lynx density was high, winters cold and the proportion of cropland low. Fox density peaked in 1920 due to lynx eradication, a mesopredator release boosted by favourable bottom-up changes - milder winters and cropland expansion. By 2010, lynx recolonization had reduced fox density, but it remained higher than in 1830, partly due to the bottom-up changes. Comparing 1830 to 2010, the contribution of top-down limitation decreased, while environment enrichment relaxed bottom-up limitation. Future scenarios indicated that by 2050, lynx density would have to increase by 79% to compensate for a projected climate-driven increase in fox density. We highlight that although top-down limitation in theory can buffer bottom-up change, this requires compensatory changes in apex predator abundance. Hence apex predator recolonization/recovery to historical levels would not be sufficient to compensate for widespread changes in climate and land use, which have relaxed the resource constraints for many herbivores and mesopredators. Variation in bottom-up conditions may also contribute to context dependence in apex predator effects.}, }
@article {pmid28074927, year = {2017}, author = {Wang, YH and Comes, HP and Cao, YN and Guo, R and Mao, YR and Qiu, YX}, title = {Quaternary climate change drives allo-peripatric speciation and refugial divergence in the Dysosma versipellis-pleiantha complex from different forest types in China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {40261}, pmid = {28074927}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Berberidaceae/*genetics ; China ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; Evolution, Molecular ; *Forests ; *Genetic Speciation ; Models, Biological ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Subtropical China harbours the world's most diverse temperate flora, but little is known about the roles of geographical and eco-climatic factors underlying the region's exceptionally high levels of species diversity and endemism. Here we address this key question by investigating the spatio-temporal and ecological processes of divergence within the Dysosma versipellis-pleiantha species complex, endemic to subtropical China. Our cpDNA phylogeny showed that this monophyletic group of understory herbs is derived from a Late Pliocene ancestor of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP)/Southwest China. Genetic and ENM data in conjunction with niche differentiation analyses support that the early divergence of D. versipellis and D. pleiantha proceeded through allo-peripatric speciation, possibly triggered by Early Pleistocene climate change, while subsequent climate-induced cycles of range contractions/expansions enhanced the eco-geographical isolation of both taxa. Furthermore, modelling of population-genetic data indicated that major lineage divergences within D. versipellis likely resulted from long-term allopatric population isolation in multiple localized refugia over the last glacial/interglacial periods, and which in turn fostered endemic species formation (D. difformis, D. majoensis) from within D. versipellis in Southwest China. These findings point to an overriding role of Quaternary climate change in triggering essentially allopatric (incipient) speciation in this group of forest-restricted plant species in subtropical China.}, }
@article {pmid28073585, year = {2017}, author = {Barmentlo, SH and van Gestel, CAM and Álvarez-Rogel, J and González-Alcaraz, MN}, title = {Influence of climate change on the multi-generation toxicity to Enchytraeus crypticus of soils polluted by metal/metalloid mining wastes.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {222}, number = {}, pages = {101-108}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2016.12.078}, pmid = {28073585}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Availability ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; Metals, Heavy/analysis/chemistry/*toxicity ; *Mining ; Oligochaeta/*drug effects ; Soil/*chemistry ; Soil Pollutants/analysis/chemistry/*toxicity ; Spain ; Wastewater/analysis/chemistry ; }, abstract = {This study aimed at assessing the effects of increased air temperature and reduced soil moisture content on the multi-generation toxicity of a soil polluted by metal/metalloid mining wastes. Enchytraeus crypticus was exposed to dilution series of the polluted soil in Lufa 2.2 soil under different combinations of air temperature (20 °C and 25 °C) and soil moisture content (50% and 30% of the soil water holding capacity, WHC) over three generations standardized on physiological time. Generation time was shorter with increasing air temperature and/or soil moisture content. Adult survival was only affected at 30% WHC (∼30% reduction at the highest percentages of polluted soil). Reproduction decreased with increasing percentage of polluted soil in a dose-related manner and over generations. Toxicity increased at 30% WHC (>50% reduction in EC50 in F0 and F1 generations) and over generations in the treatments at 20 °C (40-60% reduction in EC50 in F2 generation). At 25 °C, toxicity did not change when combined with 30% WHC and only slightly increased with 50% WHC. So, higher air temperature and/or reduced soil moisture content does affect the toxicity of soils polluted by metal/metalloid mining wastes to E. crypticus and this effect may exacerbate over generations.}, }
@article {pmid28073478, year = {2016}, author = {Paerl, HW and Gardner, WS and Havens, KE and Joyner, AR and McCarthy, MJ and Newell, SE and Qin, B and Scott, JT}, title = {Mitigating cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems impacted by climate change and anthropogenic nutrients.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {54}, number = {}, pages = {213-222}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2015.09.009}, pmid = {28073478}, issn = {1878-1470}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/*physiology ; *Ecosystem ; *Eutrophication ; *Harmful Algal Bloom ; Humans ; Lakes/microbiology ; Nitrogen/analysis/metabolism ; Phosphorus/analysis/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Mitigating the global expansion of cyanobacterial harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) is a major challenge facing researchers and resource managers. A variety of traditional (e.g., nutrient load reduction) and experimental (e.g., artificial mixing and flushing, omnivorous fish removal) approaches have been used to reduce bloom occurrences. Managers now face the additional effects of climate change on watershed hydrologic and nutrient loading dynamics, lake and estuary temperature, mixing regime, internal nutrient dynamics, and other factors. Those changes favor CyanoHABs over other phytoplankton and could influence the efficacy of control measures. Virtually all mitigation strategies are influenced by climate changes, which may require setting new nutrient input reduction targets and establishing nutrient-bloom thresholds for impacted waters. Physical-forcing mitigation techniques, such as flushing and artificial mixing, will need adjustments to deal with the ramifications of climate change. Here, we examine the suite of current mitigation strategies and the potential options for adapting and optimizing them in a world facing increasing human population pressure and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28073473, year = {2016}, author = {Visser, PM and Verspagen, JMH and Sandrini, G and Stal, LJ and Matthijs, HCP and Davis, TW and Paerl, HW and Huisman, J}, title = {How rising CO2 and global warming may stimulate harmful cyanobacterial blooms.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {54}, number = {}, pages = {145-159}, doi = {10.1016/j.hal.2015.12.006}, pmid = {28073473}, issn = {1878-1470}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; Cyanobacteria/*physiology ; Eutrophication ; *Global Warming ; Lakes ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to stimulate the development of harmful cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic waters, with negative consequences for water quality of many lakes, reservoirs and brackish ecosystems across the globe. In addition to effects of temperature and eutrophication, recent research has shed new light on the possible implications of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Depletion of dissolved CO2 by dense cyanobacterial blooms creates a concentration gradient across the air-water interface. A steeper gradient at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will lead to a greater influx of CO2, which can be intercepted by surface-dwelling blooms, thus intensifying cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic waters. Bloom-forming cyanobacteria display an unexpected diversity in CO2 responses, because different strains combine their uptake systems for CO2 and bicarbonate in different ways. The genetic composition of cyanobacterial blooms may therefore shift. In particular, strains with high-flux carbon uptake systems may benefit from the anticipated rise in inorganic carbon availability. Increasing temperatures also stimulate cyanobacterial growth. Many bloom-forming cyanobacteria and also green algae have temperature optima above 25°C, often exceeding the temperature optima of diatoms and dinoflagellates. Analysis of published data suggests that the temperature dependence of the growth rate of cyanobacteria exceeds that of green algae. Indirect effects of elevated temperature, like an earlier onset and longer duration of thermal stratification, may also shift the competitive balance in favor of buoyant cyanobacteria while eukaryotic algae are impaired by higher sedimentation losses. Furthermore, cyanobacteria differ from eukaryotic algae in that they can fix dinitrogen, and new insights show that the nitrogen-fixation activity of heterocystous cyanobacteria can be strongly stimulated at elevated temperatures. Models and lake studies indicate that the response of cyanobacterial growth to rising CO2 concentrations and elevated temperatures can be suppressed by nutrient limitation. The greatest response of cyanobacterial blooms to climate change is therefore expected to occur in eutrophic and hypertrophic lakes.}, }
@article {pmid28073022, year = {2017}, author = {Costello, MJ and Breyer, S}, title = {Ocean Depths: The Mesopelagic and Implications for Global Warming.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {R36-R38}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2016.11.042}, pmid = {28073022}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; *Carbon Cycle ; Climate Change ; *Echolocation ; Fisheries ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {The mesopelagic or 'twilight zone' of the oceans occurs too deep for photosynthesis, but is a major part of the world's carbon cycle. Depth boundaries for the mesopelagic have now been shown on a global scale using the distribution of pelagic animals detected by compiling echo-soundings from ships around the world, and been used to predict the effect of global warming on regional fish production.}, }
@article {pmid28069633, year = {2017}, author = {Schierenbeck, KA}, title = {Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {119}, number = {2}, pages = {215-228}, pmid = {28069633}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation/*genetics ; Genetics, Population ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Estimated future climate scenarios can be used to predict where hotspots of endemism may occur over the next century, but life history, ecological and genetic traits will be important in informing the varying responses within myriad taxa. Essential to predicting the consequences of climate change to individual species will be an understanding of the factors that drive genetic structure within and among populations. Here, I review the factors that influence the genetic structure of plant species in California, but are applicable elsewhere; existing levels of genetic variation, life history and ecological characteristics will affect the ability of an individual taxon to persist in the presence of anthropogenic change.<br><br>Persistence in the face of climate change is likely determined by life history characteristics: dispersal ability, generation time, reproductive ability, degree of habitat specialization, plant-insect interactions, existing genetic diversity and availability of habitat or migration corridors. Existing levels of genetic diversity in plant populations vary based on a number of evolutionary scenarios that include endemism, expansion since the last glacial maximum, breeding system and current range sizes.<br><br>A number of well-documented examples are provided from the California Floristic Province. Some predictions can be made for the responses of plant taxa to rapid environmental changes based on geographic position, evolutionary history, existing genetic variation, and ecological amplitude.<br><br>The prediction of how species will respond to climate change will require a synthesis drawing from population genetics, geography, palaeontology and ecology. The important integration of the historical factors that have shaped the distribution and existing genetic structure of California's plant taxa will enable us to predict and prioritize the conservation of species and areas most likely to be impacted by rapid climate change, human disturbance and invasive species.}, }
@article {pmid28069310, year = {2017}, author = {Chiu, MC and Hunt, L and Resh, VH}, title = {Climate-change influences on the response of macroinvertebrate communities to pesticide contamination in the Sacramento River, California watershed.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {581-582}, number = {}, pages = {741-749}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.002}, pmid = {28069310}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; California ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Invertebrates ; Pesticides/*analysis ; *Rivers ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Limited studies have addressed how future climate-change scenarios may alter the effects of pesticides on biotic assemblages or the effects of exposures to repeated pulses of pesticide mixtures. We used reported pesticide-use data as input to a hydrological fate and transport model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) under multiple climate-change scenarios to simulate spatiotemporal dynamics of pesticides mixtures in streams on a daily time-step in the Sacramento River watershed of California. We predicted that there will be increased pesticide application with warming across the watershed, especially in upstream areas. Using a statistical model describing the relationship between macroinvertebrate communities and pesticide dynamics, we found that compared to the baseline period of 1970-1999: (1) most climate-change scenarios predicted increased rainfall and warming across the watershed during 2070-2099; and (2) increasing pesticide contamination and increased impact on macroinvertebrates will likely occur in most areas of the watershed by 2070-2099; and (3) lower increases in effects of pesticides on macroinvertebrates were predicted for the downstream areas with intensive agriculture compared to some upstream areas with less-intensive agriculture. Future efforts on practical adaptation and mitigation strategies can be improved by awareness of altered threats of pesticide mixtures under future climate-change conditions.}, }
@article {pmid28062105, year = {2017}, author = {Chen, Y and Han, X and Si, W and Wu, Z and Chien, H and Okamoto, K}, title = {An assessment of climate change impacts on maize yields in Hebei Province of China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {581-582}, number = {}, pages = {507-517}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.158}, pmid = {28062105}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The climate change impacts on maize yields are quantified in this paper using statistical models with panel data from 3731 farmers' observations across nine sample villages in Hebei Province of China. The marginal impacts of climate change and the simulated impacts on maize yields based on scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 from the global climate models of Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) and Meteorological Research Institute Coupled General Circulation Model version 3 (MRI-CGCM3) were then calculated, analyzed, and explained. The results indicate that, first, the most important finding was that climate change impacts on maize yields were significant and a 1°C warming or a 1mm decrease in precipitation resulted in a 150.255kg or a 1.941kg loss in maize yields per hectare, respectively. Second, villages with latitudes of less than 39.832 and longitudes of more than 114.839 in Hebei province suffered losses due to warm weather. Third, the simulated impacts for the full sample are all negative based on scenarios from MIROC5, and their magnitudes are more than those of MRI-CGCM3 are. Based on scenarios in the 2050s, the biggest loss for maize yields per hectare for the full sample accounts for about one-tenth of the mean maize yield from 2004 to 2010, and all of the villages are impacted. Hence, it is important to help farms adopt an adaptation strategy to tackle the risk of loss for maize yields from climate change, and it is necessary to develop agricultural synthesis services as a public adaptation policy at the village level to interact with the adaptation strategy at the farm level.}, }
@article {pmid28060848, year = {2017}, author = {Liao, W and Atkinson, CT and LaPointe, DA and Samuel, MD}, title = {Mitigating Future Avian Malaria Threats to Hawaiian Forest Birds from Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {e0168880}, pmid = {28060848}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Genetically Modified ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Culicidae/parasitology ; *Forests ; Hawaii/epidemiology ; Insect Vectors/parasitology ; Malaria, Avian/*epidemiology/transmission ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Mosquito Control ; Population Density ; Swine ; }, abstract = {Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai'i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.}, }
@article {pmid28052075, year = {2017}, author = {Pawlowski, MN and Crow, SE and Meki, MN and Kiniry, JR and Taylor, AD and Ogoshi, R and Youkhana, A and Nakahata, M}, title = {Field-Based Estimates of Global Warming Potential in Bioenergy Systems of Hawaii: Crop Choice and Deficit Irrigation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {e0168510}, pmid = {28052075}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Agricultural Irrigation ; *Biofuels ; Biomass ; Carbon/analysis ; Crops, Agricultural/*physiology ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Gases/analysis ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Hawaii ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Plant Roots/growth &amp; development ; Soil ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Water ; }, abstract = {Replacing fossil fuel with biofuel is environmentally viable from a climate change perspective only if the net greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint of the system is reduced. The effects of replacing annual arable crops with perennial bioenergy feedstocks on net GHG production and soil carbon (C) stock are critical to the system-level balance. Here, we compared GHG flux, crop yield, root biomass, and soil C stock under two potential tropical, perennial grass biofuel feedstocks: conventional sugarcane and ratoon-harvested, zero-tillage napiergrass. Evaluations were conducted at two irrigation levels, 100% of plantation application and at a 50% deficit. Peaks and troughs of GHG emission followed agronomic events such as ratoon harvest of napiergrass and fertilization. Yet, net GHG flux was dominated by carbon dioxide (CO2), as methane was oxidized and nitrous oxide (N2O) emission was very low even following fertilization. High N2O fluxes that frequently negate other greenhouse gas benefits that come from replacing fossil fuels with agronomic forms of bioenergy were mitigated by efficient water and fertilizer management, including direct injection of fertilizer into buried irrigation lines. From soil intensively cultivated for a century in sugarcane, soil C stock and root biomass increased rapidly following cultivation in grasses selected for robust root systems and drought tolerance. The net soil C increase over the two-year crop cycle was three-fold greater than the annualized soil surface CO2 flux. Deficit irrigation reduced yield, but increased soil C accumulation as proportionately more photosynthetic resources were allocated belowground. In the first two years of cultivation napiergrass did not increase net greenhouse warming potential (GWP) compared to sugarcane, and has the advantage of multiple ratoon harvests per year and less negative effects of deficit irrigation to yield.}, }
@article {pmid28051192, year = {2017}, author = {Rossati, A}, title = {Global Warming and Its Health Impact.}, journal = {The international journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {7-20}, pmid = {28051192}, issn = {2008-6814}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; Disasters ; *Environmental Health ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far as to speed it up as in the case of mosquitoes. Diseases transmitted by mosquitoes include some of the most widespread worldwide illnesses such as malaria and viral diseases. Tick-borne diseases have increased in the past years in cold regions, because rising temperatures accelerate the cycle of development, the production of eggs, and the density and distribution of the tick population. The areas of presence of ticks and diseases that they can transmit have increased, both in terms of geographical extension than in altitude. In the next years the engagement of the health sector would be working to develop prevention and adaptation programs in order to reduce the costs and burden of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28051191, year = {2017}, author = {Punton, A and Crossley, EJ and Matthews, NR and Walpole, SC}, title = {Protecting Health from Climate Change Requires Concerted Action and Radical Approaches: A Discussion of Recent Progress in International Climate Negotiations.}, journal = {The international journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {1-6}, pmid = {28051191}, issn = {2008-6814}, }
@article {pmid28046046, year = {2017}, author = {Morelli, TL and Daly, C and Dobrowski, SZ and Dulen, DM and Ebersole, JL and Jackson, ST and Lundquist, JD and Millar, CI and Maher, SP and Monahan, WB and Nydick, KR and Redmond, KT and Sawyer, SC and Stock, S and Beissinger, SR}, title = {Correction: Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {e0169725}, pmid = {28046046}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159909.].}, }
@article {pmid28045111, year = {2017}, author = {Liu, W and Zhang, Z and Xie, X and Yu, Z and von Gadow, K and Xu, J and Zhao, S and Yang, Y}, title = {Analysis of the Global Warming Potential of Biogenic CO2 Emission in Life Cycle Assessments.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {39857}, pmid = {28045111}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Biomass ; *Carbon Cycle ; *Forests ; *Global Warming ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Biomass is generally believed to be carbon neutral. However, recent studies have challenged the carbon neutrality hypothesis by introducing metric indicators to assess the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbio). In this study we calculated the GWPbio factors using a forest growth model and radiative forcing effects with a time horizon of 100 years and applied the factors to five life cycle assessment (LCA) case studies of bioproducts. The forest carbon change was also accounted for in the LCA studies. GWPbio factors ranged from 0.13-0.32, indicating that biomass could be an attractive energy resource when compared with fossil fuels. As expected, short rotation and fast-growing biomass plantations produced low GWPbio. Long-lived wood products also allowed more regrowth of biomass to be accounted as absorption of the CO2 emission from biomass combustion. The LCA case studies showed that the total life cycle GHG emissions were closely related to GWPbio and energy conversion efficiency. By considering the GWPbio factors and the forest carbon change, the production of ethanol and bio-power appeared to have higher GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel at the highest GWPbio.}, }
@article {pmid28040271, year = {2017}, author = {Bett, B and Kiunga, P and Gachohi, J and Sindato, C and Mbotha, D and Robinson, T and Lindahl, J and Grace, D}, title = {Effects of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of livestock diseases.}, journal = {Preventive veterinary medicine}, volume = {137}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {119-129}, doi = {10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.11.019}, pmid = {28040271}, issn = {1873-1716}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/etiology/*veterinary ; *Livestock ; }, abstract = {The planet's mean air and ocean temperatures have been rising over the last century because of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These changes have substantial effects on the epidemiology of infectious diseases. We describe direct and indirect processes linking climate change and infectious diseases in livestock with reference to specific case studies. Some of the studies are used to show a positive association between temperature and expansion of the geographical ranges of arthropod vectors (e.g. Culicoides imicola, which transmits bluetongue virus) while others are used to illustrate an opposite trend (e.g. tsetse flies that transmit a range of trypanosome parasites in sub-Saharan Africa). We further describe a positive association between extreme events: droughts and El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) weather patterns and Rift Valley fever outbreaks in East Africa and some adaptation practices used to mitigate the impacts of climate change that may increase risk of exposure to infectious pathogens. We conclude by outlining mitigation and adaptation measures that can be used specifically in the livestock sector to minimize the impacts of climate change-associated livestock diseases.}, }
@article {pmid28035265, year = {2016}, author = {Muñoz, DJ and Miller Hesed, K and Campbell Grant, EH and Miller, DA}, title = {Evaluating within-population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal-limited species to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {24}, pages = {8740-8755}, pmid = {28035265}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal-limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal-limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5-year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size-specific fecundity, potentially reducing population-level persistence. To better understand within-population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph-specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.}, }
@article {pmid28033377, year = {2016}, author = {Zhang, W and Ming, Q and Shi, Z and Niu, J and Su, H}, title = {Climate Change and Drought Events in the Geochemical Records of the Lacustrine Deposits in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {e0168928}, pmid = {28033377}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Lakes/*chemistry ; Models, Theoretical ; Tibet ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Lacustrine deposits at the margin of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) are sensitive indicators for the evolution of the southwest Asian monsoon (SWAM) during the Quaternary. Thus, they can provide insight into the Quaternary climatic history and their relationship with global climatic changes. The results of the geochemical analysis of the Xiaozhongdian Basin section at the SETP suggest that SiO2 had the highest content of the major elements followed by Al2O3. The order of the abundance of the major elements was generally as follows: SiO2>Al2O3>Fe2O3>CaO>MgO>K2O>TiO2>Na2O>MnO2. The geochemical proxies, such as chemical index of alteration (CIA), the index of compositional variability (ICV) and (CaO+K2O+Na2O)/Al2O3, indicate the weak chemical weathering and the aridification of the margin of the SETP during the Heinrich events. In addition, the aridification of the SETP during the Heinrich events may be closely related to the cold signals transmitted from the high latitudes of the North Atlantic to the TP, and the effect caused the cooling effect to be very strong on the TP as a result of the upper-level westerly jet stream and then reduced the suction action associated with the SWAM, thus accelerating the drying rate of Xiaozhongdian Basin, which was amplifying the degree of drought in Heinrich events.}, }
@article {pmid28031695, year = {2016}, author = {Clarens, AF and Peters, CA}, title = {Mitigating Climate Change at the Carbon Water Nexus: A Call to Action for the Environmental Engineering Community.}, journal = {Environmental engineering science}, volume = {33}, number = {10}, pages = {719-724}, pmid = {28031695}, issn = {1092-8758}, abstract = {Environmental engineers have played a critical role in improving human and ecosystem health over the past several decades. These contributions have focused on providing clean water and air as well as managing waste streams and remediating polluted sites. As environmental problems have become more global in scale and more deeply entrenched in sociotechnical systems, the discipline of environmental engineering must grow to be ready to respond to the challenges of the coming decades. Here we make the case that environmental engineers should play a leadership role in the development of climate change mitigation technologies at the carbon-water nexus (CWN). Climate change, driven largely by unfettered emissions of fossil carbon into the atmosphere, is a far-reaching and enormously complex environmental risk with the potential to negatively affect food security, human health, infrastructure, and other systems. Solving this problem will require a massive mobilization of existing and innovative new technology. The environmental engineering community is uniquely positioned to do pioneering work at the CWN using a skillset that has been honed, solving related problems. The focus of this special issue, on "The science and innovation of emerging subsurface energy technologies," provides one example domain within which environmental engineers and related disciplines are beginning to make important contributions at the CWN. In this article, we define the CWN and describe how environmental engineers can bring their considerable expertise to bear in this area. Then we review some of the topics that appear in this special issue, for example, mitigating the impacts of hydraulic fracturing and geologic carbon storage, and we provide perspective on emergent research directions, for example, enhanced geothermal energy, energy storage in sedimentary formations, and others.}, }
@article {pmid28029477, year = {2017}, author = {Li, S and Juhász-Horváth, L and Harrison, PA and Pintér, L and Rounsevell, MDA}, title = {Relating farmer's perceptions of climate change risk to adaptation behaviour in Hungary.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {185}, number = {}, pages = {21-30}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.10.051}, pmid = {28029477}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Decision Making ; *Farmers ; Humans ; Hungary ; }, abstract = {Understanding how farmers perceive climate change risks and how this affects their willingness to adopt adaptation practices is critical for developing effective climate change response strategies for the agricultural sector. This study examines (i) the perceptual relationships between farmers' awareness of climate change phenomena, beliefs in climate change risks and actual adaptation behaviour, and (ii) how these relationships may be modified by farm-level antecedents related to human, social, financial capitals and farm characteristics. An extensive household survey was designed to investigate the current pattern of adaptation strategies and collect data on these perceptual variables and their potential antecedents from private landowners in Veszprém and Tolna counties, Hungary. Path analysis was used to explore the causal connections between variables. We found that belief in the risk of climate change was heightened by an increased awareness of directly observable climate change phenomena (i.e. water shortages and extreme weather events). The awareness of extreme weather events was a significant driver of adaptation behaviour. Farmers' actual adaptation behaviour was primarily driven by financial motives and managerial considerations (i.e. the aim of improving profit and product sales; gaining farm ownership and the amount of land managed; and, the existence of a successor), and stimulated by an innovative personality and the availability of information from socio-agricultural networks. These results enrich the empirical evidence in support of improving understanding of farmer decision-making processes, which is critical in developing well-targeted adaptation policies.}, }
@article {pmid28028893, year = {2018}, author = {Baar, Y and Friedman, ALL and Meiri, S and Scharf, I}, title = {Little effect of climate change on body size of herbivorous beetles.}, journal = {Insect science}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {309-316}, doi = {10.1111/1744-7917.12420}, pmid = {28028893}, issn = {1744-7917}, mesh = {Animals ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; *Coleoptera ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change affects various aspects of an animal's life, with important effects on distribution range and phenology. The relationship between global warming and body size changes in mammals and birds has been widely studied, with most findings indicating a decline in body size over time. Nevertheless, little data exist on similar size change patterns of invertebrates in general and insects in particular, and it is unclear whether insects should decrease in size or not with climate warming. We measured over 4000 beetle specimens, belonging to 29 beetle species in 8 families, collected in Israel during the last 100 years. The sampled species are all herbivorous. We examined whether beetle body size had changed over the years, while also investigating the relationships between body size and annual temperature, precipitation, net primary productivity (NPP) at the collection site and collection month. None of the environmental variables, including the collection year, was correlated with the size of most of the studied beetle species, while there were strong interactions of all variables with species. Our results, though mostly negative, suggest that the effect of climate change on insect body size is species-specific and by no means a general macro-ecological rule. They also suggest that the intrapopulation variance in body size of insects collected as adults in the field is large enough to conceal intersite environmental effects on body size, such as the effect of temperature and NPP.}, }
@article {pmid28028223, year = {2017}, author = {Melvin, AM and Larsen, P and Boehlert, B and Neumann, JE and Chinowsky, P and Espinet, X and Martinich, J and Baumann, MS and Rennels, L and Bothner, A and Nicolsky, DJ and Marchenko, SS}, title = {Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {2}, pages = {E122-E131}, pmid = {28028223}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80-100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.}, }
@article {pmid28027721, year = {2017}, author = {York, L and Heffernan, C and Rymer, C and Panda, N}, title = {A deterministic evaluation of heat stress mitigation and feed cost under climate change within the smallholder dairy sector.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {900-909}, doi = {10.1017/S1751731116002706}, pmid = {28027721}, issn = {1751-732X}, mesh = {Animal Feed/economics ; Animal Husbandry/economics/*methods ; Animals ; Breeding ; Cattle/genetics/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; India ; Lactation ; Milk/metabolism ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {In the global South, dairying is often promoted as a means of poverty alleviation. Yet, under conditions of climate warming, little is known regarding the ability of small-scale dairy producers to maintain production and/or the robustness of possible adaptation options in meeting the challenges presented, particularly heat stress. The authors created a simple, deterministic model to explore the influence of breed and heat stress relief options on smallholder dairy farmers in Odisha, India. Breeds included indigenous Indian (non-descript), low-grade Jersey crossbreed and high-grade Jersey crossbreed. Relief strategies included providing shade, fanning and bathing. The impact of predicted critical global climate parameters, a 2°C and 4°C temperature rise were explored. A feed price scenario was modelled to illustrate the importance of feed in impact estimation. Feed costs were increased by 10% to 30%. Across the simulations, high-grade Jersey crossbreeds maintained higher milk yields, despite being the most sensitive to the negative effects of temperature. Low-capital relief strategies were the most effective at reducing heat stress impacts on household income. However, as feed costs increased the lower-grade Jersey crossbreed became the most profitable breed. The high-grade Jersey crossbreed was only marginally (4.64%) more profitable than the indigenous breed. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding the factors and practical trade-offs that underpin adaptation. The model also highlights the need for hot-climate dairying projects and programmes to consider animal genetic resources alongside environmentally sustainable adaptation measures for greatest poverty impact.}, }
@article {pmid28018631, year = {2016}, author = {Caudell, M and Quinlan, R}, title = {Life-history theory and climate change: resolving population and parental investment paradoxes.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {3}, number = {11}, pages = {160470}, pmid = {28018631}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Population growth in the next half-century is on pace to raise global carbon emissions by half. Carbon emissions are associated with fertility as a by-product of somatic and parental investment, which is predicted to involve time orientation/preference as a mediating psychological mechanism. Here, we draw upon life-history theory (LHT) to investigate associations between future orientation and fertility, and their impacts on carbon emissions. We argue 'K-strategy' life history (LH) in high-income countries has resulted in parental investment behaviours involving future orientation that, paradoxically, promote unsustainable carbon emissions, thereby lowering the Earth's K or carrying capacity. Increasing the rate of approach towards this capacity are 'r-strategy' LHs in low-income countries that promote population growth. We explore interactions between future orientation and development that might slow the rate of approach towards global K. Examination of 67 000 individuals across 75 countries suggests that future orientation interacts with the relationship between environmental risk and fertility and with development related parental investment, particularly investment in higher education, to slow population growth and mitigate per capita carbon emissions. Results emphasize that LHT will be an important tool in understanding the demographic and consumption patterns that drive anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28011805, year = {2016}, author = {Herlihy, N and Bar-Hen, A and Verner, G and Fischer, H and Sauerborn, R and Depoux, A and Flahault, A and Schütte, S}, title = {Climate change and human health: what are the research trends? A scoping review protocol.}, journal = {BMJ open}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {e012022}, pmid = {28011805}, issn = {2044-6055}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; Research/*trends ; Research Design ; Risk ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: For 28 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been assessing the potential risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. Although interest in climate change and health is growing, the implications arising from their interaction remain understudied. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be key step in inciting some of the changes necessary to decelerate global warming. A long-term and broad overview of the existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. In this paper we outline our methods to conduct a scoping review of the published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health between 1990 and 2015.<br><br>METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A detailed search strategy will be used to search the PubMed and Web of Science databases. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied in order to capture the most relevant literature in the time frame chosen. Data will be extracted, categorised and coded to allow for statistical analysis of the results.<br><br>ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethical approval was required for this study. A searchable database of climate change and health publications will be developed and a manuscript will be complied for publication and dissemination of the findings. We anticipate that this study will allow us to map the trends observed in publications over the 25-year time period in climate change and health research. It will also identify the research areas with the highest volume of publications as well as highlight the research trends in climate change and health.}, }
@article {pmid28011366, year = {2017}, author = {Lee, HF and Fei, J and Chan, CY and Pei, Q and Jia, X and Yue, RP}, title = {Climate change and epidemics in Chinese history: A multi-scalar analysis.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {53-63}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2016.12.020}, pmid = {28011366}, issn = {1873-5347}, mesh = {China/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Epidemics/*history/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; History, 15th Century ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, Medieval ; Humans ; Meteorology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Spatial Analysis ; }, abstract = {This study seeks to provide further insight regarding the relationship of climate-epidemics in Chinese history through a multi-scalar analysis. Based on 5961 epidemic incidents in China during 1370-1909 CE we applied Ordinary Least Square regression and panel data regression to verify the climate-epidemic nexus over a range of spatial scales (country, macro region, and province). Results show that epidemic outbreaks were negatively correlated with the temperature in historical China at various geographic levels, while a stark reduction in the correlational strength was observed at lower geographic levels. Furthermore, cooling drove up epidemic outbreaks in northern and central China, where population pressure reached a clear threshold for amplifying the vulnerability of epidemic outbreaks to climate change. Our findings help to illustrate the modifiable areal unit and the uncertain geographic context problems in climate-epidemics research. Researchers need to consider the scale effect in the course of statistical analyses, which are currently predominantly conducted on a national/single scale; and also the importance of how the study area is delineated, an issue which is rarely discussed in the climate-epidemics literature. Future research may leverage our results and provide a cross-analysis with those derived from spatial analysis.}, }
@article {pmid28009103, year = {2017}, author = {Hansen, A and Xiang, J and Liu, Q and Tong, MX and Sun, Y and Liu, X and Chen, K and Cameron, S and Hanson-Easey, S and Han, GS and Weinstein, P and Williams, C and Bi, P}, title = {Experts' Perceptions on China's Capacity to Manage Emerging and Re-emerging Zoonotic Diseases in an Era of Climate Change.}, journal = {Zoonoses and public health}, volume = {64}, number = {7}, pages = {527-536}, doi = {10.1111/zph.12335}, pmid = {28009103}, issn = {1863-2378}, mesh = {Animals ; China/*epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*methods ; Communicable Diseases ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; Perception ; *Public Health ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Zoonotic diseases transmitted by arthropods and rodents are a major public health concern in China. However, interventions in recent decades have helped lower the incidence of several diseases despite the country's large, frequently mobile population and socio-economic challenges. Increasing globalization, rapid urbanization and a warming climate now add to the complexity of disease control and prevention and could challenge China's capacity to respond to threats of emerging and re-emerging zoonoses. To investigate this notion, face-to-face interviews were conducted with 30 infectious disease experts in four cities in China. The case study diseases under discussion were malaria, dengue fever and haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, all of which may be influenced by changing meteorological conditions. Data were analysed using standard qualitative techniques. The study participants viewed the current disease prevention and control system favourably and were optimistic about China's capacity to manage climate-sensitive diseases in the future. Several recommendations emerged from the data including the need to improve health literacy in the population regarding the transmission of infectious diseases and raising awareness of the health impacts of climate change amongst policymakers and health professionals. Participants thought that research capacity could be strengthened and human resources issues for front-line staff should be addressed. It was considered important that authorities are well prepared in advance for outbreaks such as dengue fever in populous subtropical areas, and a prompt and coordinated response is required when outbreaks occur. Furthermore, health professionals need to remain skilled in the identification of diseases for which incidence is declining, so that re-emerging or emerging trends can be rapidly identified. Recommendations such as these may be useful in formulating adaptation plans and capacity building for the future control and prevention of climate-sensitive zoonotic diseases in China and neighbouring countries.}, }
@article {pmid28008919, year = {2016}, author = {Schleuning, M and Fründ, J and Schweiger, O and Welk, E and Albrecht, J and Albrecht, M and Beil, M and Benadi, G and Blüthgen, N and Bruelheide, H and Böhning-Gaese, K and Dehling, DM and Dormann, CF and Exeler, N and Farwig, N and Harpke, A and Hickler, T and Kratochwil, A and Kuhlmann, M and Kühn, I and Michez, D and Mudri-Stojnić, S and Plein, M and Rasmont, P and Schwabe, A and Settele, J and Vujić, A and Weiner, CN and Wiemers, M and Hof, C}, title = {Ecological networks are more sensitive to plant than to animal extinction under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {13965}, pmid = {28008919}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Extinction, Biological ; Models, Theoretical ; Plants/classification/*metabolism ; Pollination ; Population Dynamics ; Seed Dispersal ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Impacts of climate change on individual species are increasingly well documented, but we lack understanding of how these effects propagate through ecological communities. Here we combine species distribution models with ecological network analyses to test potential impacts of climate change on >700 plant and animal species in pollination and seed-dispersal networks from central Europe. We discover that animal species that interact with a low diversity of plant species have narrow climatic niches and are most vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, biotic specialization of plants is not related to climatic niche breadth and vulnerability. A simulation model incorporating different scenarios of species coextinction and capacities for partner switches shows that projected plant extinctions under climate change are more likely to trigger animal coextinctions than vice versa. This result demonstrates that impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be amplified via extinction cascades from plants to animals in ecological networks.}, }
@article {pmid28008069, year = {2016}, author = {Cheung, WW and Reygondeau, G and Frölicher, TL}, title = {Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5°C global warming target.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {354}, number = {6319}, pages = {1591-1594}, doi = {10.1126/science.aag2331}, pmid = {28008069}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Earth, Planet ; *Fisheries ; *Fishes ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Models, Theoretical ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Translating the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial level into impact-related targets facilitates communication of the benefits of mitigating climate change to policy-makers and stakeholders. Developing ecologically relevant impact-related targets for marine ecosystem services, such as fisheries, is an important step. Here, we use maximum catch potential and species turnover as climate-risk indicators for fisheries. We project that potential catches will decrease by more than 3 million metric tons per degree Celsius of warming. Species turnover is more than halved when warming is lowered from 3.5° to 1.5°C above the preindustrial level. Regionally, changes in maximum catch potential and species turnover vary across ecosystems, with the biggest risk reduction in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic regions when the Paris Agreement target is achieved.}, }
@article {pmid28004798, year = {2016}, author = {Feng, L and Jia, Z and Li, Q}, title = {The dynamic monitoring of aeolian desertification land distribution and its response to climate change in northern China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {39563}, pmid = {28004798}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Aeolian desertification is poorly understood despite its importance for indicating environment change. Here we exploit Gaofen-1(GF-1) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data to develop a quick and efficient method for large scale aeolian desertification dynamic monitoring in northern China. This method, which is based on Normalized Difference Desertification Index (NDDI) calculated by band1 &amp;band2 of MODIS reflectance data (MODIS09A1). Then we analyze spatial-temporal change of aeolian desertification area and detect its possible influencing factors, such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and population by Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) model. It suggests that aeolian desertification area with population indicates feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables (P < 0.05), but forcing of aeolian desertification area by population is weak. Meanwhile, we find aeolian desertification area is significantly affected by temperature, as expected. However, there is no obvious forcing for the aeolian desertification area and precipitation. Aeolian desertification area with wind speed indicates feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables with significant signal (P < 0.01). We infer that aeolian desertification is greatly affected by natural factors compared with anthropogenic factors. For the desertification in China, we are greatly convinced that desertification prevention is better than control.}, }
@article {pmid28004348, year = {2017}, author = {Demirkesen, AC and Evrendilek, F}, title = {Compositing climate change vulnerability of a Mediterranean region using spatiotemporally dynamic proxies for ecological and socioeconomic impacts and stabilities.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {189}, number = {1}, pages = {29}, pmid = {28004348}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Geographic Information Systems ; Mediterranean Region ; Temperature ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {The study presents a new methodology to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics of climate change vulnerability at a regional scale adopting a new conceptual model of vulnerability as a function of climate change impacts, ecological stability, and socioeconomic stability. Spatiotemporal trends of equally weighted proxy variables for the three vulnerability components were generated to develop a composite climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) for a Mediterranean region of Turkey combining Landsat time series data, digital elevation model (DEM)-derived data, ordinary kriging, and geographical information system. Climate change impact was based on spatiotemporal trends of August land surface temperature (LST) between 1987 and 2016. Ecological stability was based on DEM, slope, aspect, and spatiotemporal trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), while socioeconomic stability was quantified as a function of spatiotemporal trends of land cover, population density, per capita gross domestic product, and illiteracy. The zones ranked on the five classes of no-to-extreme vulnerability were identified where highly and moderately vulnerable lands covered 0.02% (12 km[2]) and 11.8% (6374 km[2]) of the study region, respectively, mostly occurring in the interior central part. The adoption of this composite CCVI approach is expected to lead to spatiotemporally dynamic policy recommendations towards sustainability and tailor preventive and mitigative measures to locally specific characteristics of coupled ecological-socioeconomic systems.}, }
@article {pmid28001335, year = {2017}, author = {McKenzie, D and Littell, JS}, title = {Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {26-36}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1420}, pmid = {28001335}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; *Fires ; Global Warming ; Hydrology ; Models, Statistical ; Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought-fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought-fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid28001290, year = {2017}, author = {Knapp, AK and Ciais, P and Smith, MD}, title = {Reconciling inconsistencies in precipitation-productivity relationships: implications for climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {214}, number = {1}, pages = {41-47}, doi = {10.1111/nph.14381}, pmid = {28001290}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; *Plant Development ; *Rain ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Contents 41 I. 41 II. 42 III. 43 IV. 44 V. 45 Acknowledgements 46 References 46 SUMMARY: Precipitation (PPT) is a primary climatic determinant of plant growth and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) over much of the globe. Thus, PPT-ANPP relationships are important both ecologically and to land-atmosphere models that couple terrestrial vegetation to the global carbon cycle. Empirical PPT-ANPP relationships derived from long-term site-based data are almost always portrayed as linear, but recent evidence has accumulated that is inconsistent with an underlying linear relationship. We review, and then reconcile, these inconsistencies with a nonlinear model that incorporates observed asymmetries in PPT-ANPP relationships. Although data are currently lacking for parameterization, this new model highlights research needs that, when met, will improve our understanding of carbon cycle dynamics, as well as forecasts of ecosystem responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28000934, year = {2017}, author = {D Stock, W}, title = {Plants anticipating rain - a challenge for modelling climate change impacts.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {213}, number = {2}, pages = {475-477}, doi = {10.1111/nph.14369}, pmid = {28000934}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Plants ; *Rain ; }, }
@article {pmid27997122, year = {2017}, author = {Kopáček, J and Kaňa, J and Bičárová, S and Fernandez, IJ and Hejzlar, J and Kahounová, M and Norton, SA and Stuchlík, E}, title = {Climate Change Increasing Calcium and Magnesium Leaching from Granitic Alpine Catchments.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {159-166}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6b03575}, pmid = {27997122}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Calcium ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Lakes ; *Magnesium ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Climate change can reverse trends of decreasing calcium and magnesium [Ca + Mg] leaching to surface waters in granitic alpine regions recovering from acidification. Despite decreasing concentrations of strong acid anions (-1.4 μeq L[-1] yr[-1]) during 2004-2016 in nonacidic alpine lakes in the Tatra Mountains (Central Europe), the average [Ca + Mg] concentrations increased (2.5 μeq L[-1] yr[-1]), together with elevated terrestrial export of bicarbonate (HCO3[-]; 3.6 μeq L[-1] yr[-1]). The percent increase in [Ca + Mg] concentrations in nonacidic lakes (0.3-3.2% yr[-1]) was significantly and positively correlated with scree proportion in the catchment area and negatively correlated with the extent of soil cover. Leaching experiments with freshly crushed granodiorite, the dominant bedrock, showed that accessory calcite and (to a lesser extent) apatite were important sources of Ca. We hypothesize that elevated terrestrial export of [Ca + Mg] and HCO3[-] resulted from increased weathering caused by accelerated physical erosion of rocks due to elevated climate-related mechanical forces (an increasing frequency of days with high precipitation amounts and air temperatures fluctuating around 0 °C) during the last 2-3 decades. These climatic effects on water chemistry are especially strong in catchments where fragmented rocks are more exposed to weathering, and their position is less stable than in soil.}, }
@article {pmid27996978, year = {2017}, author = {Zhang, X and Johnston, ER and Li, L and Konstantinidis, KT and Han, X}, title = {Experimental warming reveals positive feedbacks to climate change in the Eurasian Steppe.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {885-895}, pmid = {27996978}, issn = {1751-7370}, mesh = {Biomass ; Biota ; Carbon/metabolism ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Grassland ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Plants/metabolism ; Soil ; *Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {Identifying soil microbial feedbacks to increasing temperatures and moisture alterations is critical for predicting how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to climate change. We performed a 5-year field experiment manipulating warming, watering and their combination in a semiarid temperate steppe in northern China. Warming stimulated the abundance of genes responsible for degrading recalcitrant soil organic matter (SOM) and reduced SOM content by 13%. Watering, and warming plus watering also increased the abundance of recalcitrant SOM catabolism pathways, but concurrently promoted plant growth and increased labile SOM content, which somewhat offset SOM loss. The treatments also increased microbial biomass, community complexity and metabolic potential for nitrogen and sulfur assimilation. Both microbial and plant community composition shifted with the treatment conditions, and the sample-to-sample compositional variations of the two communities (pairwise β-diversity distances) were significantly correlated. In particular, microbial community composition was substantially correlated with the dominant plant species (~0.54 Spearman correlation coefficient), much more than with measured soil indices, affirming a tight coupling between both biological communities. Collectively, our study revealed the direction and underlying mechanisms of microbial feedbacks to warming and suggested that semiarid regions of northern steppes could act as a net carbon source under increased temperatures, unless precipitation increases concurrently.}, }
@article {pmid27996154, year = {2017}, author = {Lozano, OM and Salis, M and Ager, AA and Arca, B and Alcasena, FJ and Monteiro, AT and Finney, MA and Del Giudice, L and Scoccimarro, E and Spano, D}, title = {Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {37}, number = {10}, pages = {1898-1916}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12739}, pmid = {27996154}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities.}, }
@article {pmid27995720, year = {2016}, author = {Rosner, D}, title = {Webs of Denial: Climate Change and the Challenge to Public Health.}, journal = {The Milbank quarterly}, volume = {94}, number = {4}, pages = {733-735}, pmid = {27995720}, issn = {1468-0009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Denial, Psychological ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid27994143, year = {2017}, author = {Kaufmann, RK and Mann, ML and Gopal, S and Liederman, JA and Howe, PD and Pretis, F and Tang, X and Gilmore, M}, title = {Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {1}, pages = {67-71}, pmid = {27994143}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Attitude ; Climate ; Cold Temperature ; *Communication ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; }, abstract = {We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that "global warming is happening." This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved.}, }
@article {pmid27994137, year = {2017}, author = {Reinmann, AB and Hutyra, LR}, title = {Edge effects enhance carbon uptake and its vulnerability to climate change in temperate broadleaf forests.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, number = {1}, pages = {107-112}, pmid = {27994137}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Cycle/*physiology ; Carbon Sequestration/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; New England ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Forest fragmentation is a ubiquitous, ongoing global phenomenon with profound impacts on the growing conditions of the world's remaining forest. The temperate broadleaf forest makes a large contribution to the global terrestrial carbon sink but is also the most heavily fragmented forest biome in the world. We use field measurements and geospatial analyses to characterize carbon dynamics in temperate broadleaf forest fragments. We show that forest growth and biomass increase by 89 ± 17% and 64 ± 12%, respectively, from the forest interior to edge, but ecosystem edge enhancements are not currently captured by models or approaches to quantifying regional C balance. To the extent that the findings from our research represent the forest of southern New England in the United States, we provide a preliminary estimate that edge growth enhancement could increase estimates of the region's carbon uptake and storage by 13 ± 3% and 10 ± 1%, respectively. However, we also find that forest growth near the edge declines three times faster than that in the interior in response to heat stress during the growing season. Using climate projections, we show that future heat stress could reduce the forest edge growth enhancement by one-third by the end of the century. These findings contrast studies of edge effects in the world's other major forest biomes and indicate that the strength of the temperate broadleaf forest carbon sink and its capacity to mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions may be stronger, but also more sensitive to climate change than previous estimates suggest.}, }
@article {pmid27993762, year = {2016}, author = {Sullivan, RK and Marsh, S and Halvarsson, J and Holdsworth, M and Waterlander, W and Poelman, MP and Salmond, JA and Christian, H and Koh, LS and Cade, JE and Spence, JC and Woodward, A and Maddison, R}, title = {Smartphone Apps for Measuring Human Health and Climate Change Co-Benefits: A Comparison and Quality Rating of Available Apps.}, journal = {JMIR mHealth and uHealth}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {e135}, pmid = {27993762}, issn = {2291-5222}, support = {G0802108/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and the burden of noncommunicable diseases are major global challenges. Opportunities exist to investigate health and climate change co-benefits through a shift from motorized to active transport (walking and cycling) and a shift in dietary patterns away from a globalized diet to reduced consumption of meat and energy dense foods. Given the ubiquitous use and proliferation of smartphone apps, an opportunity exists to use this technology to capture individual travel and dietary behavior and the associated impact on the environment and health.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to identify, describe the features, and rate the quality of existing smartphone apps which capture personal travel and dietary behavior and simultaneously estimate the carbon cost and potential health consequences of these actions.<br><br>METHODS: The Google Play and Apple App Stores were searched between October 19 and November 6, 2015, and a secondary Google search using the apps filter was conducted between August 8 and September 18, 2016. Eligible apps were required to estimate the carbon cost of personal behaviors with the potential to include features to maximize health outcomes. The quality of included apps was assessed by 2 researchers using the Mobile Application Rating Scale (MARS).<br><br>RESULTS: Out of 7213 results, 40 apps were identified and rated. Multiple travel-related apps were identified, however no apps solely focused on the carbon impact or health consequences of dietary behavior. None of the rated apps provided sufficient information on the health consequences of travel and dietary behavior. Some apps included features to maximize participant engagement and encourage behavior change towards reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Most apps were rated as acceptable quality as determined by the MARS; 1 was of poor quality and 10 apps were of good quality. Interrater reliability of the 2 evaluators was excellent (ICC=0.94, 95% CI 0.87-0.97).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Existing apps capturing travel and dietary behavior and the associated health and environmental impact are of mixed quality. Most apps do not include all desirable features or provide sufficient health information. Further research is needed to determine the potential of smartphone apps to evoke behavior change resulting in climate change and health co-benefits.}, }
@article {pmid27991978, year = {2016}, author = {Kiefer, M and Rodríguez-Guzmán, J and Watson, J and van Wendel de Joode, B and Mergler, D and da Silva, AS}, title = {Worker health and safety and climate change in the Americas: issues and research needs.}, journal = {Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {192-197}, pmid = {27991978}, issn = {1680-5348}, support = {CC999999//Intramural CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Americas ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Extreme Heat ; Humans ; Ice Cover ; *Occupational Health ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {SYNOPSIS This report summarizes and discusses current knowledge on the impact that climate change can have on occupational safety and health (OSH), with a particular focus on the Americas. Worker safety and health issues are presented on topics related to specific stressors (e.g., temperature extremes), climate associated impacts (e.g., ice melt in the Arctic), and a health condition associated with climate change (chronic kidney disease of non-traditional etiology). The article discusses research needs, including hazards, surveillance, and risk assessment activities to better characterize and understand how OSH may be associated with climate change events. Also discussed are the actions that OSH professionals can take to ensure worker health and safety in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27991974, year = {2016}, author = {Barcellos, C and Roux, E and Ceccato, P and Gosselin, P and Monteiro, AM and de Matos, VP and Xavier, DR}, title = {An observatory to gather and disseminate information on the health-related effects of environmental and climate change.}, journal = {Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {167-173}, pmid = {27991974}, issn = {1680-5348}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Humans ; Information Dissemination/*methods ; *Internet ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {This report sought to critically examine proposals, potentials, and challenges of environmental health observatories with an emphasis on climate change processes. A critical review of existing environmental health observatories was performed, examining their purposes, potential audiences, and technological platforms. The implementation of the Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory (C&amp;HO) is described, and two stages are defined: (i) the requirement analysis and negotiation stage that identified the national and regional institutional players and their roles as data producers/users; and (ii) thematic health-related workshops that reviewed water-related diseases, vector-borne diseases, extreme climate events, and health problems derived from forest fires. The C&amp;HO is an example of making information on climate and health available through an Internet site where data from different origins can be accessed on a common platform. Complex queries are made by users and can be executed over multiple sites, geographically distributed, with all technical details hidden from the end user. At this stage of the C&amp;HO prototype, alongside the queries, users can also produce semi-qualitative graphs and maps. A multi-scale approach was developed using the platform by setting up sentinel sites. Building a successful observatory is a participatory process that involves choosing indicators, data sources, information technology, and languages to best reach different audiences, such as researchers, citizens, public health professionals, and decisionmakers.}, }
@article {pmid27991972, year = {2016}, author = {Riojas-Rodríguez, H and da Silva, AS and Texcalac-Sangrador, JL and Moreno-Banda, GL}, title = {Air pollution management and control in Latin America and the Caribbean: implications for climate change.}, journal = {Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {150-159}, pmid = {27991972}, issn = {1680-5348}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Air Pollution/analysis/*prevention &amp; control ; Bolivia ; Caribbean Region ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Guatemala ; Guideline Adherence ; Humans ; Latin America ; Peru ; West Indies ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To assess the status of the legal framework for air quality control in all countries of Latin America and Caribbean (LAC); to determine the current distribution of air monitoring stations and mean levels of air pollutants in all capital and large cities (more than 100 000 inhabitants); and to discuss the implications for climate change and public policymaking.<br><br>METHODS: From January 2015-February 2016, searches were conducted of online databases for legislation, regulations, policies, and air pollution programs, as well as for the distribution of monitoring stations and the mean annual levels of air pollution in all LAC countries.<br><br>RESULTS: Only 117 cities distributed among 17 of 33 LAC countries had official information on ground level air pollutants, covering approximately 146 million inhabitants. The annual mean of inhalable particles concentration in most of the cities were over the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines; notably, only Bolivia, Peru, and Guatemala have actually adopted the guidelines. Most of the cities did not have information on particulate matter of 2.5 microns or less, and only a few measured black carbon.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The air quality regulatory framework should be updated to reflect current knowledge on health effects. Monitoring and control of ground level pollutants should be extended and strengthened to increase awareness and protect public health. Using the co-benefits of air pollution control for health and climate as a framework for policy and decision-making in LAC is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid27991971, year = {2016}, author = {da Silva, AS and Buss, DF and Galvão, LA and Becerra-Posada, F}, title = {Not so simple as it seems: tackling climate change and implementing the sustainable development goals in the Americas.}, journal = {Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {147-149}, pmid = {27991971}, issn = {1680-5348}, mesh = {Americas ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Goals ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid27984794, year = {2017}, author = {Justice, C and White, SM and McCullough, DA and Graves, DS and Blanchard, MR}, title = {Can stream and riparian restoration offset climate change impacts to salmon populations?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {188}, number = {}, pages = {212-227}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.12.005}, pmid = {27984794}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oregon ; Population Dynamics ; Rivers ; *Salmon ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding how stream temperature responds to restoration of riparian vegetation and channel morphology in context of future climate change is critical for prioritizing restoration actions and recovering imperiled salmon populations. We used a deterministic water temperature model to investigate potential thermal benefits of riparian reforestation and channel narrowing to Chinook Salmon populations in the Upper Grande Ronde River and Catherine Creek basins in Northeast Oregon, USA. A legacy of intensive land use practices in these basins has significantly reduced streamside vegetation and increased channel width across most of the stream network, resulting in water temperatures that far exceed the optimal range for salmon growth and survival. By combining restoration scenarios with climate change projections, we were able to evaluate whether future climate impacts could be offset by restoration actions. A combination of riparian restoration and channel narrowing was predicted to reduce peak summer water temperatures by 6.5 °C on average in the Upper Grande Ronde River and 3.0 °C in Catherine Creek in the absence of other perturbations. These results translated to increases in Chinook Salmon parr abundance of 590% and 67% respectively. Although projected climate change impacts on water temperature for the 2080s time period were substantial (i.e., median increase of 2.7 °C in the Upper Grande Ronde and 1.5 °C in Catherine Creek), we predicted that basin-wide restoration of riparian vegetation and channel width could offset these impacts, reducing peak summer water temperatures by about 3.5 °C in the Upper Grande Ronde and 1.8 °C in Catherine Creek. These results underscore the potential for riparian and stream channel restoration to mitigate climate change impacts to threatened salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest.}, }
@article {pmid27984771, year = {2017}, author = {Molina, O and Saldarriaga, V}, title = {The perils of climate change: In utero exposure to temperature variability and birth outcomes in the Andean region.}, journal = {Economics and human biology}, volume = {24}, number = {}, pages = {111-124}, doi = {10.1016/j.ehb.2016.11.009}, pmid = {27984771}, issn = {1873-6130}, mesh = {Bolivia/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Colombia/epidemiology ; Developing Countries ; Female ; *Food Supply ; *Health Services Accessibility ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; *Infant, Low Birth Weight ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Peru/epidemiology ; Pregnancy ; Pregnancy Outcome/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The discussion on the effects of climate change on human activity has primarily focused on how increasing temperature levels can impair human health. However, less attention has been paid to the effect of increased climate variability on health. We investigate how in utero exposure to temperature variability, measured as the fluctuations relative to the historical local temperature mean, affects birth outcomes in the Andean region. Our results suggest that exposure to a temperate one standard deviation relative to the municipality's long-term temperature mean during pregnancy reduces birth weight by 20g. and increases the probability a child is born with low birth weight by a 0.7 percentage point. We also explore potential channels driving our results and find some evidence that increased temperature variability can lead to a decrease in health care and increased food insecurity during pregnancy.}, }
@article {pmid27984678, year = {2017}, author = {Krumhansl, KA and Bergman, JN and Salomon, AK}, title = {Assessing the ecosystem-level consequences of a small-scale artisanal kelp fishery within the context of climate-change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {799-813}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1484}, pmid = {27984678}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {British Columbia ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; *Kelp ; *Macrocystis ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Coastal communities worldwide rely on small-scale artisanal fisheries as a means of increasing food security and alleviating poverty. Even small-scale fishing activities, however, are prone to resource depletion and environmental degradation, which can erode livelihoods in the long run. Thus, there is a pressing need to identify viable and resilient artisanal fisheries, and generate knowledge to support management within the context of a rapidly changing climate. We examined the ecosystem-level consequences of an artisanal kelp fishery (Macrocystis pyrifera), finding small-scale harvest of this highly productive species poses minimal impacts on kelp recovery rates, survival, and biomass dynamics, and abundances of associated commercial and culturally important fish species. These results suggest that small-scale harvest poses minimal trade-offs for the other economic benefits provided by these ecosystems, and their inherent, spiritual, and cultural value to humans. However, we detected a negative impact of warmer seawater temperatures on kelp recovery rates following harvest, indicating that the viability of harvest, even at small scales, may be threatened by future increases in global ocean temperature. This suggests that negative impacts of artisanal fisheries may be more likely to arise in the context of a warming climate, further highlighting the widespread effects of global climate change on coastal fisheries and livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid27984422, year = {2017}, author = {Thigpen Tart, K and Dilworth, CH and Birnbaum, LS and Balbus, JM}, title = {The Epidemiologic Silver Lining of Climate Change.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {313-315}, doi = {10.1097/EDE.0000000000000613}, pmid = {27984422}, issn = {1531-5487}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid27982504, year = {2017}, author = {Mainwaring, MC and Barber, I and Deeming, DC and Pike, DA and Roznik, EA and Hartley, IR}, title = {Climate change and nesting behaviour in vertebrates: a review of the ecological threats and potential for adaptive responses.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {92}, number = {4}, pages = {1991-2002}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12317}, pmid = {27982504}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Nesting Behavior/*physiology ; Vertebrates/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Nest building is a taxonomically widespread and diverse trait that allows animals to alter local environments to create optimal conditions for offspring development. However, there is growing evidence that climate change is adversely affecting nest-building in animals directly, for example via sea-level rises that flood nests, reduced availability of building materials, and suboptimal sex allocation in species exhibiting temperature-dependent sex determination. Climate change is also affecting nesting species indirectly, via range shifts into suboptimal nesting areas, reduced quality of nest-building environments, and changes in interactions with nest predators and parasites. The ability of animals to adapt to sustained and rapid environmental change is crucial for the long-term persistence of many species. Many animals are known to be capable of adjusting nesting behaviour adaptively across environmental gradients and in line with seasonal changes, and this existing plasticity potentially facilitates adaptation to anthropogenic climate change. However, whilst alterations in nesting phenology, site selection and design may facilitate short-term adaptations, the ability of nest-building animals to adapt over longer timescales is likely to be influenced by the heritable basis of such behaviour. We urgently need to understand how the behaviour and ecology of nest-building in animals is affected by climate change, and particularly how altered patterns of nesting behaviour affect individual fitness and population persistence. We begin our review by summarising how predictable variation in environmental conditions influences nest-building animals, before highlighting the ecological threats facing nest-building animals experiencing anthropogenic climate change and examining the potential for changes in nest location and/or design to provide adaptive short- and long-term responses to changing environmental conditions. We end by identifying areas that we believe warrant the most urgent attention for further research.}, }
@article {pmid27982119, year = {2016}, author = {Escobar, LE and Romero-Alvarez, D and Leon, R and Lepe-Lopez, MA and Craft, ME and Borbor-Cordova, MJ and Svenning, JC}, title = {Declining Prevalence of Disease Vectors Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {39150}, pmid = {27982119}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Area Under Curve ; Chikungunya Fever/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology/transmission ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development/microbiology/virology ; Prevalence ; ROC Curve ; Risk ; Yellow Fever/*epidemiology/transmission ; }, abstract = {More than half of the world population is at risk of vector-borne diseases including dengue fever, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever, leishmaniasis, chagas disease, and malaria, with highest incidences in tropical regions. In Ecuador, vector-borne diseases are present from coastal and Amazonian regions to the Andes Mountains; however, a detailed characterization of the distribution of their vectors has never been carried out. We estimate the distribution of 14 vectors of the above vector-borne diseases under present-day and future climates. Our results consistently suggest that climate warming is likely threatening some vector species with extinction, locally or completely. These results suggest that climate change could reduce the burden of specific vector species. Other vector species are likely to shift and constrain their geographic range to the highlands in Ecuador potentially affecting novel areas and populations. These forecasts show the need for development of early prevention strategies for vector species currently absent in areas projected as suitable under future climate conditions. Informed interventions could reduce the risk of human exposure to vector species with distributional shifts, in response to current and future climate changes. Based on the mixed effects of future climate on human exposure to disease vectors, we argue that research on vector-borne diseases should be cross-scale and include climatic, demographic, and landscape factors, as well as forces facilitating disease transmission at fine scales.}, }
@article {pmid27981339, year = {2018}, author = {Méndez-Lázaro, PA and Pérez-Cardona, CM and Rodríguez, E and Martínez, O and Taboas, M and Bocanegra, A and Méndez-Tejeda, R}, title = {Climate change, heat, and mortality in the tropical urban area of San Juan, Puerto Rico.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {699-707}, pmid = {27981339}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {AGS-1444755//National Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality ; Cities/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Diabetes Mellitus/mortality ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Kidney Diseases/mortality ; Mortality/*trends ; Pneumonia/mortality ; Puerto Rico/epidemiology ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/mortality ; Risk ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Extreme heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical areas of Australia, India, and Puerto Rico. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat episodes are triggering public health issues in most mid-latitude and continental cities. With urbanization, land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly encouraging the Urban Heat Island effect with potential impacts on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations. However, this association is not completely understood in tropical islands such as Puerto Rico. The present study examines the effects of heat in two municipalities (San Juan and Bayamón) within the San Juan metropolitan area on overall and cause-specific mortality among the population between 2009 and 2013. The number of daily deaths attributed to selected causes (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, pneumonia, and kidney disease) coded and classified according to the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases was analyzed. The relations between elevated air surface temperatures on cause-specific mortality were modeled. Separate Poisson regression models were fitted to explain the total number of deaths as a function of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, while adjusting for seasonal patterns. Results show a significant increase in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, during the summers of 2012 and 2013. Stroke (relative risk = 16.80, 95% CI 6.81-41.4) and cardiovascular diseases (relative risk = 16.63, 95% CI 10.47-26.42) were the primary causes of death most associated with elevated summer temperatures. Better understanding of how these heat events affect the health of the population will provide a useful tool for decision makers to address and mitigate the effects of the increasing temperatures on public health. The enhanced temperature forecast may be a crucial component in decision making during the National Weather Service Heat Watches, Advisories, and Warning process.}, }
@article {pmid27980179, year = {2016}, author = {Smithers, RJ and Blicharska, M}, title = {Indirect impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {354}, number = {6318}, pages = {1386}, doi = {10.1126/science.aal4402}, pmid = {27980179}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid27978538, year = {2016}, author = {Hillier, A and Kelly, RP and Klinger, T}, title = {Narrative Style Influences Citation Frequency in Climate Change Science.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {e0167983}, pmid = {27978538}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Bibliometrics ; *Climate Change ; Journal Impact Factor ; Peer Review, Research ; Publishing/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Peer-reviewed publications focusing on climate change are growing exponentially with the consequence that the uptake and influence of individual papers varies greatly. Here, we derive metrics of narrativity from psychology and literary theory, and use these metrics to test the hypothesis that more narrative climate change writing is more likely to be influential, using citation frequency as a proxy for influence. From a sample of 732 scientific abstracts drawn from the climate change literature, we find that articles with more narrative abstracts are cited more often. This effect is closely associated with journal identity: higher-impact journals tend to feature more narrative articles, and these articles tend to be cited more often. These results suggest that writing in a more narrative style increases the uptake and influence of articles in climate literature, and perhaps in scientific literature more broadly.}, }
@article {pmid27976837, year = {2017}, author = {Warren, DR and Kraft, CE and Josephson, DC and Driscoll, CT}, title = {Acid rain recovery may help to mitigate the impacts of climate change on thermally sensitive fish in lakes across eastern North America.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {2149-2153}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13568}, pmid = {27976837}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Acid Rain ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Fishes ; Lakes ; North America ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {From the 1970s to 1990s, more stringent air quality regulations were implemented across North America and Europe to reduce chemical emissions that contribute to acid rain. Surface water pH slowly increased during the following decades, but biological recovery lagged behind chemical recovery. Fortunately, this situation is changing. In the past few years, northeastern US fish populations have begun to recover in lakes that were historically incapable of sustaining wild fish due to acidic conditions. As lake ecosystems across the eastern United States recover from acid deposition, the stress to the most susceptible populations of native coldwater fish appears to be shifting from acidification effects to thermal impacts associated with changing climate. Extreme summer temperature events - which are expected to occur with increasing frequency in the coming century - can stress and ultimately kill native coldwater fish in lakes where thermal stratification is absent or highly limited. Based on data from northeastern North America, we argue that recovery from acid deposition has the potential to improve the resilience of coldwater fish populations in some lakes to impacts of climate change. This will occur as the amount of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the water increases with increasing lake pH. Increased DOC will reduce water clarity and lead to shallower and more persistent lake thermoclines that can provide larger areas of coldwater thermal refuge habitat. Recovery from acidification will not eliminate the threat of climate change to coldwater fish, but secondary effects of acid recovery may improve the resistance of coldwater fish populations in lakes to the effects of elevated summer temperatures in historically acidified ecosystems. This analysis highlights the importance of considering the legacy of past ecosystem impacts and how recovery or persistence of those effects may interact with climate change impacts on biota in the coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid27976449, year = {2017}, author = {Tietjen, B and Schlaepfer, DR and Bradford, JB and Lauenroth, WK and Hall, SA and Duniway, MC and Hochstrasser, T and Jia, G and Munson, SM and Pyke, DA and Wilson, SD}, title = {Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {7}, pages = {2743-2754}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13598}, pmid = {27976449}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Rain ; Soil/chemistry ; Water ; }, abstract = {Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid27974150, year = {2017}, author = {Körfgen, A and Keller, L and Kuthe, A and Oberrauch, A and Stötter, H}, title = {(Climate) Change in young people's minds - From categories towards interconnections between the anthroposphere and natural sphere.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {580}, number = {}, pages = {178-187}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.127}, pmid = {27974150}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Choice Behavior ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; *Learning ; Students ; }, abstract = {The grand challenges of the 21st century will increasingly require societies to reconsider the pathways taken thus far. Engagement with climate change is of ever-growing importance to young people. They will be confronted with the effects of climate change throughout their entire lives and, as future decision-makers, they will vitally shape societal developments. Education will thus play a crucial role in the transformation to a sustainable society. In terms of awareness-raising, an important first step in preparing young people for the challenges of the 21st century is to understand what content is connected with climate change. As complex challenges, such as climate change, demand ways of thinking that go beyond categories, interconnections between the anthroposphere and the natural sphere have to be taken into consideration. This study provides an insight into the questions and topics young people develop whilst becoming involved in climate change in an in-school learning setting and in an out-of-school learning setting (a high mountain environment). The analysis focuses on the question of in which spheres students predominantly make their thematic choices and how far the interconnections between different spheres are formed. Our results show that the choice of the learning setting influences the topics students connect with climate change. Interconnections between sub-spheres of the anthroposphere and natural sphere are made only occasionally. These findings serve as a basis for reconsidering the content and foundation of climate change communication with young people. We recommend that climate change educational programmes should include phases that allow the following: a) involvement with climate change issues related to single spheres in the first phase, and b) consideration of the interconnections between spheres when becoming involved with climate change issues in the second phase. As the educational setting can considerably influence the focus of the learning process, it should be chosen thoughtfully.}, }
@article {pmid27974065, year = {2017}, author = {Carvalho, BM and Rangel, EF and Vale, MM}, title = {Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling.}, journal = {Bulletin of entomological research}, volume = {107}, number = {4}, pages = {419-430}, doi = {10.1017/S0007485316001097}, pmid = {27974065}, issn = {1475-2670}, mesh = {Animals ; *Arthropod Vectors ; *Climate Change ; *Diptera ; *Ecosystem ; Ixodes ; *Models, Theoretical ; Triatoma ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.}, }
@article {pmid27973732, year = {2017}, author = {La Sorte, FA and Fink, D}, title = {Projected changes in prevailing winds for transatlantic migratory birds under global warming.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {86}, number = {2}, pages = {273-284}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12624}, pmid = {27973732}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Charadriiformes/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Models, Biological ; Songbirds/*physiology ; *Wind ; }, abstract = {A number of terrestrial bird species that breed in North America cross the Atlantic Ocean during autumn migration when travelling to their non-breeding grounds in the Caribbean or South America. When conducting oceanic crossings, migratory birds tend to associate with mild or supportive winds, whose speed and direction may change under global warming. The implications of these changes for transoceanic migratory bird populations have not been addressed. We used occurrence information from eBird (1950-2015) to estimate the geographical location of population centres at a daily temporal resolution across the annual cycle for 10 transatlantic migratory bird species. We used this information to estimate the location and timing of autumn migration within the transatlantic flyway. We estimated how prevailing winds are projected to change within the transatlantic flyway during this time using daily wind speed anomalies (1996-2005 and 2091-2100) from 29 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models implemented under CMIP5. Autumn transatlantic migrants have the potential to encounter strong westerly crosswinds early in their transatlantic journey at intermediate and especially high migration altitudes, strong headwinds at low and intermediate migration altitudes within the Caribbean that increase in strength as the season progresses, and weak tailwinds at intermediate and high migration altitudes east of the Caribbean. The CMIP5 simulations suggest that, during this century, the likelihood of autumn transatlantic migrants encountering strong westerly crosswinds will diminish. As global warming progresses, the need for species to compensate or drift under the influence of strong westerly crosswinds during the initial phase of their autumn transatlantic journey may be diminished. Existing strategies that promote headwind avoidance and tailwind assistance will likely remain valid. Thus, climate change may reduce time and energy requirements and the chance of mortality or vagrancy during a specific but likely critical portion of these species' autumn migration journey.}, }
@article {pmid27958273, year = {2016}, author = {Reed, D and Washburn, L and Rassweiler, A and Miller, R and Bell, T and Harrer, S}, title = {Extreme warming challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {13757}, pmid = {27958273}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to warming. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to extreme warming events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27957695, year = {2017}, author = {Lenka, S and Lenka, NK and Singh, AB and Singh, B and Raghuwanshi, J}, title = {Global warming potential and greenhouse gas emission under different soil nutrient management practices in soybean-wheat system of central India.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {4603-4612}, pmid = {27957695}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Crops, Agricultural ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; India ; Seasons ; Soil ; *Glycine max ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Soil nutrient management is a key component contributing to the greenhouse gas (GHG) flux and mitigation potential of agricultural production systems. However, the effect of soil nutrient management practices on GHG flux and global warming potential (GWP) is less understood in agricultural soils of India. The present study was conducted to compare three nutrient management systems practiced for nine consecutive years in a soybean-wheat cropping system in the Vertisols of India, in terms of GHG flux and GWP. The treatments were composed of 100% organic (ONM), 100% inorganic (NPK), and integrated nutrient management (INM) with 50% organic + 50% inorganic inputs. The gas samples for GHGs (CO2, CH4, and N2O) were collected by static chamber method at about 15-day interval during 2012-13 growing season. The change in soil organic carbon (SOC) content was estimated in terms of the changes in SOC stock in the 0-15 cm soil over the 9-year period covering 2004 to 2013. There was a net uptake of CH4 in all the treatments in both soybean and wheat crop seasons. The cumulative N2O and CO2 emissions were in the order of INM > ONM > NPK with significant difference between treatments (p < 0.05) in both the crop seasons. The annual GWP, expressed in terms of CH4 and N2O emission, also followed the same trend and was estimated to be 1126, 1002, and 896 kg CO2 eq ha[-1] year[-1] under INM, ONM, and NPK treatments, respectively. However, the change in SOC stock was significantly higher under ONM (1250 kg ha[-1] year[-1]) followed by INM (417 kg ha[-1] year[-1]) and least under NPK (198 kg ha[-1] year[-1]) treatment. The wheat equivalent yield was similar under ONM and INM treatments and was significantly lower under NPK treatment. Thus, the GWP per unit grain yield was lower under ONM followed by NPK and INM treatments and varied from 250, 261, and 307 kg CO2 eq Mg[-1] grain yield under ONM, NPK, and INM treatments, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid27942080, year = {2016}, author = {Bornmann, L and Haunschild, R and Marx, W}, title = {Policy documents as sources for measuring societal impact: how often is climate change research mentioned in policy-related documents?.}, journal = {Scientometrics}, volume = {109}, number = {3}, pages = {1477-1495}, pmid = {27942080}, issn = {0138-9130}, abstract = {In the current UK Research Excellence Framework (REF) and the Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA), societal impact measurements are inherent parts of the national evaluation systems. In this study, we deal with a relatively new form of societal impact measurements. Recently, Altmetric-a start-up providing publication level metrics-started to make data for publications available which have been mentioned in policy documents. We regard this data source as an interesting possibility to specifically measure the (societal) impact of research. Using a comprehensive dataset with publications on climate change as an example, we study the usefulness of the new data source for impact measurement. Only 1.2 % (n = 2341) out of 191,276 publications on climate change in the dataset have at least one policy mention. We further reveal that papers published in Nature and Science as well as from the areas "Earth and related environmental sciences" and "Social and economic geography" are especially relevant in the policy context. Given the low coverage of the climate change literature in policy documents, this study can be only a first attempt to study this new source of altmetrics data. Further empirical studies are necessary, because mentions in policy documents are of special interest in the use of altmetrics data for measuring target-oriented the broader impact of research.}, }
@article {pmid27940821, year = {2016}, author = {Pala, C}, title = {Corals tie stronger El Niños to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {354}, number = {6317}, pages = {1210}, doi = {10.1126/science.354.6317.1210}, pmid = {27940821}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/metabolism/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen Isotopes/metabolism ; Seawater ; }, }
@article {pmid27935165, year = {2017}, author = {Xu, C and Liu, H and Anenkhonov, OA and Korolyuk, AY and Sandanov, DV and Balsanova, LD and Naidanov, BB and Wu, X}, title = {Long-term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality, regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {2370-2382}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13582}, pmid = {27935165}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Siberia ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long-term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long-term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long-term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900-2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests.}, }
@article {pmid27935162, year = {2017}, author = {Rogers, BM and Jantz, P and Goetz, SJ}, title = {Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {3302-3320}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13585}, pmid = {27935162}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Plants ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of tree species because of critical environmental tolerances related to growth, mortality, reproduction, disturbances, and biotic interactions. How this is realized in 21st century remains uncertain, in large part due to limitations on plant migration and the impacts of landscape fragmentation. Understanding these changes is of particular concern for forest management, which requires information at an appropriately fine spatial resolution. Here we provide a framework and application for tree species vulnerability to climate change in the eastern United States that accounts for influential drivers of future distributions. We used species distribution models to project changes in habitat suitability at 800 m for 40 tree species that vary in physiology, range, and environmental niche. We then developed layers of adaptive capacity based on migration potential, forest fragmentation, and propagule pressure. These were combined into metrics of vulnerability, including an overall index and spatially explicit categories designed to inform management. Despite overall favorable changes in suitability, the majority of species and the landscape were considered vulnerable to climate change. Vulnerability was significantly exacerbated by projections of pests and pathogens for some species. Northern and high-elevation species tended to be the most vulnerable. There were, however, some notable areas of particular resilience, including most of West Virginia. Our approach combines some of the most important considerations for species vulnerability in a straightforward framework, and can be used as a tool for managers to prioritize species, areas, and actions.}, }
@article {pmid27933915, year = {2016}, author = {Liu, D and Qin, S and Li, W and Zhang, D and Guo, Z}, title = {Atmospheric Chemistry of 1H-Heptafluorocyclopentene (cyc-CF2CF2CF2CF═CH-): Rate Constant, Products, and Mechanism of Gas-Phase Reactions with OH Radicals, IR Absorption Spectrum, Photochemical Ozone Creation Potential, and Global Warming Potential.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {120}, number = {48}, pages = {9557-9563}, doi = {10.1021/acs.jpca.6b10348}, pmid = {27933915}, issn = {1520-5215}, abstract = {The rate constant for gas-phase reactions of OH radicals with 1H-heptafluorocyclopentene (cyc-CF2CF2CF2CF═CH-) was measured using a relative rate method at 298 K: (5.20 ± 0.09) × 10[-14] cm[3] molecule[-1] s[-1]. The quoted uncertainty includes two standard deviations from the least-squares regression, the systematic error from the GC analysis, and the uncertainties of the rate constants of the reference compounds. The OH-radical-initiated oxidation of cyc-CF2CF2CF2CF═CH- gives the main products COF2, CO, and CO2, leading to negligible environmental impact. For consumptions of cyc-CF2CF2CF2CF═CH- of less than 54%, the yield of the formation of ([COF2] + [CO] + [CO2])/5 (based on the conservation of carbon) was 0.99 ± 0.02, which is very close to 100%. A possible degradation mechanism was proposed. The radiative efficiency (RE) of cyc-CF2CF2CF2CF═CH- measured at room temperature was 0.215 W m[-2] ppb[-1]. The atmospheric lifetime of cyc-CF2CF2CF2CF═CH- was calculated as 0.61 year, and the photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP) was negligible. The 20-, 100-, and 500-year time horizon global warming potentials (GWPs) were estimated as 153, 42, and 12, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid27933500, year = {2017}, author = {Elum, ZA and Modise, DM and Nhamo, G}, title = {Climate change mitigation: the potential of agriculture as a renewable energy source in Nigeria.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {3260-3273}, pmid = {27933500}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; *Biofuels ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Nigeria ; Waste Management ; }, abstract = {Energy is pivotal to the economic development of every nation. However, its production and utilization leads to undesirable carbon emissions that aggravate global warming which results in climate change. The agriculture sector is a significant user of energy. However, it has the potential to be a major contributor to Nigeria's energy supply mix in meeting its energy deficit. More so, in the light of current and impending adverse effects of climate change, there is a need to contain GHG's emissions. This paper focuses on bioenergy utilization as a climate change mitigation strategy and one that can, through effective waste management, enhance sustainable economic development in Nigeria. The paper employed a critical discourse analysis to examine the potential of the agricultural sector to provide biofuels from energy crops and other biomass sources. We conclude that Nigeria can reduce its GHG emissions and greatly contribute to global climate change mitigation while also alleviating its energy supply deficit if the agricultural and municipal wastes readily available in its towns and cities are converted to bioenergy. Such engagements will not only promote a clean and healthy environment but also create jobs for economic empowerment and a better standard of living for the people.}, }
@article {pmid27933448, year = {2017}, author = {Cola, G and Failla, O and Maghradze, D and Megrelidze, L and Mariani, L}, title = {Erratum to: Grapevine phenology and climate change in Georgia.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {61}, number = {4}, pages = {775}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-016-1289-6}, pmid = {27933448}, issn = {1432-1254}, }
@article {pmid27929448, year = {2016}, author = {Kais, SM and Islam, MS}, title = {Community Capitals as Community Resilience to Climate Change: Conceptual Connections.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {}, pmid = {27929448}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Community Participation/*psychology ; Disasters ; Humans ; Resilience, Psychological ; }, abstract = {In the last few decades, disaster risk reduction programs and climate initiatives across the globe have focused largely on the intimate connections between vulnerability, recovery, adaptation, and coping mechanisms. Recent focus, however, is increasingly paid to community resilience. Community, placed at the intersection between the household and national levels of social organization, is crucial in addressing economic, social, or environmental disturbances disrupting human security. Resilience measures a community's capability of bouncing back-restoring the original pre-disaster state, as well as bouncing forward-the capacity to cope with emerging post-disaster situations and changes. Both the 'bouncing back' and 'moving forward' properties of a community are shaped and reshaped by internal and external shocks such as climate threats, the community's resilience dimensions, and the intensity of economic, social, and other community capitals. This article reviews (1) the concept of resilience in relation to climate change and vulnerability; and (2) emerging perspectives on community-level impacts of climate change, resilience dimensions, and community capitals. It argues that overall resilience of a place-based community is located at the intersection of the community's resilience dimensions, community capitals, and the level of climate disruptions.}, }
@article {pmid27929423, year = {2016}, author = {Mercuri, AM and Torri, P and Fornaciari, R and Florenzano, A}, title = {Plant Responses to Climate Change: The Case Study of Betulaceae and Poaceae Pollen Seasons (Northern Italy, Vignola, Emilia-Romagna).}, journal = {Plants (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {27929423}, issn = {2223-7747}, abstract = {Aerobiological data have especially demonstrated that there is correlation between climate warming and the pollination season of plants. This paper focuses on airborne pollen monitoring of Betulaceae and Poaceae, two of the main plant groups with anemophilous pollen and allergenic proprieties in Northern Italy. The aim is to investigate plant responses to temperature variations by considering long-term pollen series. The 15-year aerobiological analysis is reported from the monitoring station of Vignola (located near Modena, in the Emilia-Romagna region) that had operated in the years 1990-2004 with a Hirst spore trap. The Yearly Pollen Index calculated for these two botanical families has shown contrasting trends in pollen production and release. These trends were well identifiable but fairly variable, depending on both meteorological variables and anthropogenic causes. Based on recent reference literature, we considered that some oscillations in pollen concentration could have been a main effect of temperature variability reflecting global warming. The duration of pollen seasons of Betulaceae and Poaceae, depending on the different species included in each family, has not unequivocally been determined. Phenological responses were particularly evident in Alnus and especially in Corylus as a general moving up of the end of pollination. The study shows that these trees can be affected by global warming more than other, more tolerant, plants. The research can be a contribution to the understanding of phenological plant responses to climate change and suggests that alder and hazelnut trees have to be taken into high consideration as sensible markers of plant responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27925812, year = {2017}, author = {Shanley, K}, title = {Climate Change and Water Quality: Keeping a Finger on the Pulse.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {107}, number = {1}, pages = {e10}, pmid = {27925812}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Heart Rate ; *Water Quality ; Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid27922629, year = {2016}, author = {Wenden, B and Campoy, JA and Lecourt, J and López Ortega, G and Blanke, M and Radičević, S and Schüller, E and Spornberger, A and Christen, D and Magein, H and Giovannini, D and Campillo, C and Malchev, S and Peris, JM and Meland, M and Stehr, R and Charlot, G and Quero-García, J}, title = {A collection of European sweet cherry phenology data for assessing climate change.}, journal = {Scientific data}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {160108}, pmid = {27922629}, issn = {2052-4463}, mesh = {Breeding ; *Climate Change ; *Crop Production ; Europe ; Flowers/*growth &amp; development ; *Gardening ; Models, Biological ; Prunus avium/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Professional and scientific networks built around the production of sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) led to the collection of phenology data for a wide range of cultivars grown in experimental sites characterized by highly contrasted climatic conditions. We present a dataset of flowering and maturity dates, recorded each year for one tree when available, or the average of several trees for each cultivar, over a period of 37 years (1978-2015). Such a dataset is extremely valuable for characterizing the phenological response to climate change, and the plasticity of the different cultivars' behaviour under different environmental conditions. In addition, this dataset will support the development of predictive models for sweet cherry phenology exploitable at the continental scale, and will help anticipate breeding strategies in order to maintain and improve sweet cherry production in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid27922014, year = {2016}, author = {Good, P and Booth, BB and Chadwick, R and Hawkins, E and Jonko, A and Lowe, JA}, title = {Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {13667}, doi = {10.1038/ncomms13667}, pmid = {27922014}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.}, }
@article {pmid27920390, year = {2017}, author = {Lancaster, LT and Morrison, G and Fitt, RN}, title = {Life history trade-offs, the intensity of competition, and coexistence in novel and evolving communities under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {372}, number = {1712}, pages = {}, pmid = {27920390}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Life History Traits ; }, abstract = {The consequences of climate change for local biodiversity are little understood in process or mechanism, but these changes are likely to reflect both changing regional species pools and changing competitive interactions. Previous empirical work largely supports the idea that competition will intensify under climate change, promoting competitive exclusions and local extinctions, while theory and conceptual work indicate that relaxed competition may in fact buffer communities from biodiversity losses that are typically witnessed at broader spatial scales. In this review, we apply life history theory to understand the conditions under which these alternative scenarios may play out in the context of a range-shifting biota undergoing rapid evolutionary and environmental change, and at both leading-edge and trailing-edge communities. We conclude that, in general, warming temperatures are likely to reduce life history variation among competitors, intensifying competition in both established and novel communities. However, longer growing seasons, severe environmental stress and increased climatic variability associated with climate change may buffer these communities against intensified competition. The role of life history plasticity and evolution has been previously underappreciated in community ecology, but may hold the key to understanding changing species interactions and local biodiversity under changing climates.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'.}, }
@article {pmid27920377, year = {2017}, author = {Colautti, RI and Ågren, J and Anderson, JT}, title = {Phenological shifts of native and invasive species under climate change: insights from the Boechera-Lythrum model.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {372}, number = {1712}, pages = {}, pmid = {27920377}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; Brassicaceae/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Flowers/*growth &amp; development ; Introduced Species ; Lythrum/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; Models, Biological ; Models, Genetic ; North America ; *Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Warmer and drier climates have shifted phenologies of many species. However, the magnitude and direction of phenological shifts vary widely among taxa, and it is often unclear when shifts are adaptive or how they affect long-term viability. Here, we model evolution of flowering phenology based on our long-term research of two species exhibiting opposite shifts in floral phenology: Lythrum salicaria, which is invasive in North America, and the sparse Rocky Mountain native Boechera stricta Genetic constraints are similar in both species, but differences in the timing of environmental conditions that favour growth lead to opposite phenological shifts under climate change. As temperatures increase, selection is predicted to favour earlier flowering in native B. stricta while reducing population viability, even if populations adapt rapidly to changing environmental conditions. By contrast, warming is predicted to favour delayed flowering in both native and introduced L. salicaria populations while increasing long-term viability. Relaxed selection from natural enemies in invasive L. salicaria is predicted to have little effect on flowering time but a large effect on reproductive fitness. Our approach highlights the importance of understanding ecological and genetic constraints to predict the ecological consequences of evolutionary responses to climate change on contemporary timescales.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'.}, }
@article {pmid27917982, year = {2016}, author = {Herrero, M and Addison, J and Bedelian, C and Carabine, E and Havlík, P and Henderson, B and Van De Steeg, J and Thornton, PK}, title = {Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, pages = {417-433}, doi = {10.20506/rst.35.2.2533}, pmid = {27917982}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Animal Husbandry/*methods/trends ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Marketing ; Social Support ; Technology ; }, abstract = {The authors discuss the main climate change impacts on pastoralist societies, including those on rangelands, livestock and other natural resources, and their extended repercussions on food security, incomes and vulnerability. The impacts of climate change on the rangelands of the globe and on the vulnerability of the people who inhabit them will be severe and diverse, and will require multiple, simultaneous responses. In higher latitudes, the removal of temperature constraints might increase pasture production and livestock productivity, but in tropical arid lands, the impacts are highly location specific, but mostly negative. The authors outline several adaptation options, ranging from implementing new technical practices and diversifying income sources to finding institutional support and introducing new market mechanisms, all of which are pivotal for enhancing the capacity of pastoralists to adapt to climate variability and change. Due to the dynamism of all the changes affecting pastoral societies, strategies that lock pastoral societies into specified development pathways could be maladaptive. Flexible and evolving combinations of practices and policies are the key to successful pastoral adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid27917355, year = {2016}, author = {Sharma, AK and Vezzaro, L and Birch, H and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K and Mikkelsen, PS}, title = {Effect of climate change on stormwater runoff characteristics and treatment efficiencies of stormwater retention ponds: a case study from Denmark using TSS and Cu as indicator pollutants.}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {1984}, pmid = {27917355}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {This study investigated the potential effect of climate changes on stormwater pollution runoff characteristics and the treatment efficiency of a stormwater retention pond in a 95 ha catchment in Denmark. An integrated dynamic stormwater runoff quality and treatment model was used to simulate two scenarios: one representing the current climate and another representing a future climate scenario with increased intensity of extreme rainfall events and longer dry weather periods. 100-year long high-resolution rainfall time series downscaled from regional climate model projections were used as input. The collected data showed that total suspended solids (TSS) and total copper (Cu) concentrations in stormwater runoff were related to flow, rainfall intensity and antecedent dry period. Extreme peak intensities resulted in high particulate concentrations and high loads but did not affect dissolved Cu concentrations. The future climate simulations showed an increased frequency of higher flows and increased total concentrations discharged from the catchment. The effect on the outlet from the pond was an increase in the total concentrations (TSS and Cu), whereas no major effect was observed on dissolved Cu concentrations. Similar results are expected for other particle bound pollutants including metals and slowly biodegradable organic substances such as PAH. Acute toxicity impacts to downstream surface waters seem to be only slightly affected. A minor increase in yearly loads of sediments and particle-bound pollutants is expected, mainly caused by large events disrupting the settling process. This may be important to consider for the many stormwater retention ponds existing in Denmark and across the world.}, }
@article {pmid27915134, year = {2017}, author = {Carbonell, JA and Bilton, DT and Calosi, P and Millán, A and Stewart, A and Velasco, J}, title = {Metabolic and reproductive plasticity of core and marginal populations of the eurythermic saline water bug Sigara selecta (Hemiptera: Corixidae) in a climate change context.}, journal = {Journal of insect physiology}, volume = {98}, number = {}, pages = {59-66}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinsphys.2016.11.015}, pmid = {27915134}, issn = {1879-1611}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; *Energy Metabolism ; Europe ; Heteroptera/*physiology ; *Oviposition ; Ovum/physiology ; Saline Waters/analysis ; Spain ; *Thermotolerance ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change is driving dramatic range shifts in diverse taxa worldwide, and species responses to global change are likely to be determined largely by population responses at geographical range margins. Here we investigate the metabolic and reproductive plasticity in response to water temperature and salinity variation of two populations of the eurythermic saline water bug Sigara selecta: one population located close to the northern edge of its distribution, in a relatively cold, thermally stable region (SE England - 'marginal'), and one close to the range centre, in a warmer and more thermally variable Mediterranean climate (SE Spain - 'core'). We compared metabolic and oviposition rates and egg size, following exposure to one of four different combinations of temperature (15 and 25°C) and salinity (10 and 35gL[-1]). Oviposition rate was significantly higher in the marginal population, although eggs laid were smaller overall. No significant differences in oxygen consumption rates were found between core and marginal populations, although the marginal population showed higher levels of plasticity in both metabolic and reproductive traits. Our results suggest that population-specific responses to environmental change are complex and may be mediated by differences in phenotypic plasticity. In S. selecta, the higher plasticity of the marginal population may facilitate both its persistence in current habitats and northward expansion with future climatic warming. The less plastic core population may be able to buffer current environmental variability with minor changes in metabolism and fecundity, but could be prone to extinction if temperature and salinity changes exceed physiological tolerance limits in the future.}, }
@article {pmid27912005, year = {2016}, author = {Reneker, JL and Kamel, SJ}, title = {Climate change increases the production of female hatchlings at a northern sea turtle rookery.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {97}, number = {12}, pages = {3257-3264}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.1603}, pmid = {27912005}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; North Carolina ; Sex Determination Processes/*physiology ; Sex Ratio ; Time Factors ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures, along with major adjustments to precipitation, throughout the 21st century. Species exhibiting temperature-dependent sex determination are highly susceptible to such changes since the incubation environment influences critical offspring characteristics such as survival and sex ratio. Here we show that the mean incubation duration of loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests from a high-density nesting beach on Bald Head Island, North Carolina, USA has decreased significantly over the past 25 yr. This decrease in incubation duration is significantly positively correlated with mean air temperature and negatively correlated with mean precipitation during the nesting season. Additionally, although no change in hatching success was detected during this same period, a potentially detrimental consequence of shorter incubation durations is that they lead to the production of primarily female offspring. Given that global temperatures are predicted to increase by as much as 4°C over the next century, the mass feminization of sea turtle hatchlings is a high-priority concern. While presently limited in number, studies using long-term data sets to examine the temporal correlation between offspring characteristics and climatic trends are essential for understanding the scope and direction of climate change effects on species persistence.}, }
@article {pmid27909212, year = {2017}, author = {Raila, EM and Anderson, DO}, title = {Black carbon emission reduction strategies in healthcare industry for effective global climate change management.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {416-425}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X16678315}, pmid = {27909212}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Haiti ; *Health Care Sector ; Humans ; Incineration/*methods ; Plastics ; *Soot/analysis ; Waste Management/*methods ; }, abstract = {Climate change remains one of the biggest threats to life on earth to date with black carbon (BC) emissions or smoke being the strongest cause after carbon dioxide (CO2). Surprisingly, scientific evidence about black carbon emissions reduction in healthcare settings is sparse. This paper presents new research findings on the reduction of black carbon emissions from an observational study conducted at the UN Peacekeeping Operations (MINUSTAH) in Haiti in 2014. Researchers observed 20 incineration cycles, 30 minutes for each cycle of plastic and cardboard sharps healthcare waste (HCW) containers ranged from 3 to 14.6 kg. The primary aim was to determine if black carbon emissions from healthcare waste incineration can be lowered by mainstreaming the use of cardboard sharps healthcare waste containers instead of plastic sharps healthcare waste containers. Similarly, the study looks into whether burning temperature was associated with the smoke levels for each case or not. Independent samples t-tests demonstrated significantly lower black carbon emissions during the incineration of cardboard sharps containers (6.81 ± 4.79% smoke) than in plastic containers (17.77 ± 8.38% smoke); a statistically significant increase of 10.96% smoke (95% Confidence Interval (CI) [4.4 to 17.5% smoke], p = 0.003). Correspondingly, lower bottom burner temperatures occurred during the incineration of cardboard sharps containers than in plastic (95% Cl [16 to 126°C], p = 0.014). Finally, we expect the application of the new quantitative evidence to form the basis for policy formulation, mainstream the use of cardboard sharps containers and opt for non-incineration disposal technologies as urgent steps for going green in healthcare waste management.}, }
@article {pmid27905443, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {Climate change: Shifting niches spell trouble.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {540}, number = {7631}, pages = {10-11}, doi = {10.1038/540010e}, pmid = {27905443}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid27904417, year = {2016}, author = {Balogun, EO and Nok, AJ and Kita, K}, title = {Global warming and the possible globalization of vector-borne diseases: a call for increased awareness and action.}, journal = {Tropical medicine and health}, volume = {44}, number = {}, pages = {38}, pmid = {27904417}, issn = {1348-8945}, abstract = {Human activities such as burning of fossil fuels play a role in upsetting a previously more balanced and harmonious ecosystem. Climate change-a significant variation in the usual pattern of Earth's average weather conditions is a product of this ecosystem imbalance, and the rise in the Earth's average temperature (global warming) is a prominent evidence. There is a correlation between global warming and the ease of transmission of infectious diseases. Therefore, with global health in focus, we herein opine a stepping-up of research activities regarding global warming and infectious diseases globally.}, }
@article {pmid27903054, year = {2016}, author = {Khormi, HM and Kumar, L}, title = {Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia.}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {416}, doi = {10.4081/gh.2016.416}, pmid = {27903054}, issn = {1970-7096}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; Climate Change ; Demography/trends ; Geographic Information Systems ; *Global Warming ; India ; Indonesia ; Insect Vectors ; Malaria/*epidemiology ; Malaysia ; Philippines ; Spatial Analysis ; Taiwan ; Thailand ; }, abstract = {We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid27902869, year = {2017}, author = {Evans, C and Brandsma, J and Pond, DW and Venables, HJ and Meredith, MP and Witte, HJ and Stammerjohn, S and Wilson, WH and Clarke, A and Brussaard, CP}, title = {Drivers of interannual variability in virioplankton abundance at the coastal western Antarctic peninsula and the potential effects of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {740-755}, doi = {10.1111/1462-2920.13627}, pmid = {27902869}, issn = {1462-2920}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Aquatic Organisms ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Ice Cover/virology ; Phytoplankton/genetics/growth &amp; development/isolation &amp; purification ; Seasons ; Viruses/classification/genetics/*isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {An 8-year time-series in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) with an approximately weekly sampling frequency was used to elucidate changes in virioplankton abundance and their drivers in this climatically sensitive region. Virioplankton abundances at the coastal WAP show a pronounced seasonal cycle with interannual variability in the timing and magnitude of the summer maxima. Bacterioplankton abundance is the most influential driving factor of the virioplankton, and exhibit closely coupled dynamics. Sea ice cover and duration predetermine levels of phytoplankton stock and thus, influence virioplankton by dictating the substrates available to the bacterioplankton. However, variations in the composition of the phytoplankton community and particularly the prominence of Diatoms inferred from silicate drawdown, drive interannual differences in the magnitude of the virioplankton bloom; likely again mediated through changes in the bacterioplankton. Their findings suggest that future warming within the WAP will cause changes in sea ice that will influence viruses and their microbial hosts through changes in the timing, magnitude and composition of the phytoplankton bloom. Thus, the flow of matter and energy through the viral shunt may be decreased with consequences for the Antarctic food web and element cycling.}, }
@article {pmid27901297, year = {2017}, author = {Hovel, RA and Carlson, SM and Quinn, TP}, title = {Climate change alters the reproductive phenology and investment of a lacustrine fish, the three-spine stickleback.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {2308-2320}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13531}, pmid = {27901297}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Fishes ; Male ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; *Smegmamorpha ; }, abstract = {High-latitude lakes are particularly sensitive to the effects of global climate change, demonstrating earlier ice breakup, longer ice-free seasons, and increased water temperatures. Such physical changes have implications for diverse life-history traits in taxa across entire lake food webs. Here, we use a five-decade time series from an Alaskan lake to explore effects of climate change on growth and reproduction of a widely distributed lacustrine fish, the three-spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models to describe trends in the mean length for multiple size classes and to explore the influence of physical (date of ice breakup, surface water temperature) and biological (density of con- and heterospecifics) factors. As predicted, mean size of age 1 and older fish at the end of the growing season increased across years with earlier ice breakup and warmer temperatures. In contrast, mean size of age 0 fish decreased over time. Overall, lower fish density and warmer water temperatures were associated with larger size for all cohorts. Earlier ice breakup was associated with larger size for age 1 and older fish but, paradoxically, with smaller size of age 0 fish. To explore this latter result, we used mixing models on age 0 size distributions, which revealed an additional cohort in years with early ice breakup, lowering the mean size of age 0 fish. Moreover, early ice breakup was associated with earlier breeding, evidenced by earlier capture of age 0 fish. Our results suggest that early ice breakup altered both timing and frequency of breeding; three-spine stickleback spawned earlier and more often in response to earlier ice breakup date. While previous studies have shown the influence of changing conditions in northern lakes on breeding timing and growth, this is the first to document increased breeding frequency, highlighting another pathway by which climate change can alter the ecology of northern lakes.}, }
@article {pmid27901045, year = {2016}, author = {Knutson, TR and Zhang, R and Horowitz, LW}, title = {Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {13676}, pmid = {27901045}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade[-1]) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade[-1]). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model-having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models-we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1 K decade[-1] trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid27898193, year = {2017}, author = {Jiang, Y and Rastetter, EB and Shaver, GR and Rocha, AV and Zhuang, Q and Kwiatkowski, BL}, title = {Modeling long-term changes in tundra carbon balance following wildfire, climate change, and potential nutrient addition.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {105-117}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1413}, pmid = {27898193}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Alaska ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Models, Biological ; Nitrogen/analysis/metabolism ; Nutrients ; Phosphorus/analysis/metabolism ; Soil/*chemistry ; Temperature ; *Tundra ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {To investigate the underlying mechanisms that control long-term recovery of tundra carbon (C) and nutrients after fire, we employed the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to simulate 200-yr post-fire changes in the biogeochemistry of three sites along a burn severity gradient in response to increases in air temperature, CO2 concentration, nitrogen (N) deposition, and phosphorus (P) weathering rates. The simulations were conducted for severely burned, moderately burned, and unburned arctic tundra. Our simulations indicated that recovery of C balance after fire was mainly determined by the internal redistribution of nutrients among ecosystem components (controlled by air temperature), rather than the supply of nutrients from external sources (e.g., nitrogen deposition and fixation, phosphorus weathering). Increases in air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in (1) a net transfer of nutrient from soil organic matter to vegetation and (2) higher C : nutrient ratios in vegetation and soil organic matter. These changes led to gains in vegetation biomass C but net losses in soil organic C stocks. Under a warming climate, nutrients lost in wildfire were difficult to recover because the warming-induced acceleration in nutrient cycles caused further net nutrient loss from the system through leaching. In both burned and unburned tundra, the warming-caused acceleration in nutrient cycles and increases in ecosystem C stocks were eventually constrained by increases in soil C : nutrient ratios, which increased microbial retention of plant-available nutrients in the soil. Accelerated nutrient turnover, loss of C, and increasing soil temperatures will likely result in vegetation changes, which further regulate the long-term biogeochemical succession. Our analysis should help in the assessment of tundra C budgets and of the recovery of biogeochemical function following fire, which is in turn necessary for the maintenance of wildlife habitat and tundra vegetation.}, }
@article {pmid27897997, year = {2016}, author = {Turingan, R and Sloan, T}, title = {Thermal Resilience of Feeding Kinematics May Contribute to the Spread of Invasive Fishes in Light of Climate Change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {27897997}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {As a consequence of global warming, tropical invasive species are expected to expand their range pole-ward, extending their negative impacts to previously undisturbed, high-latitude ecosystems. Investigating the physiological responses of invasive species to environmental temperature is important because the coupled effects of climate change and species invasion on ecosystems could be more alarming than the effects of each phenomenon independently. Especially in poikilotherms, the rate of motion in muscle-driven biomechanical systems is expected to double for every 10 °C increase in temperature. In this study, we address the question, "How does temperature affect the speed of jaw-movement during prey-capture in invasive fishes?" Kinematic analysis of invasive-fish prey-capture behavior revealed that (1) movement velocities of key components of the feeding mechanism did not double as water temperature increased from 20 °C to 30 °C; and (2) thermal sensitivity (Q10 values) for gape, hyoid, lower-jaw rotation, and cranial rotation velocities at 20 °C and 30 °C ranged from 0.56 to 1.44 in all three species. With the exception of lower-jaw rotation, Q10 values were significantly less than the expected Q10 = 2.0, indicating that feeding kinematics remains consistent despite the change in environmental temperature. It is conceivable that the ability to maintain peak performance at different temperatures helps facilitate the spread of invasive fishes globally.}, }
@article {pmid27896611, year = {2017}, author = {Robichaud, P}, title = {Is Ignorance of Climate Change Culpable?.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {1409-1430}, pmid = {27896611}, issn = {1471-5546}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; *Moral Obligations ; Morals ; }, abstract = {Sometimes ignorance is an excuse. If an agent did not know and could not have known that her action would realize some bad outcome, then it is plausible to maintain that she is not to blame for realizing that outcome, even when the act that leads to this outcome is wrong. This general thought can be brought to bear in the context of climate change insofar as we think (a) that the actions of individual agents play some role in realizing climate harms and (b) that these actions are apt targets for being considered right or wrong. Are agents who are ignorant about climate change and the way their actions contribute to it excused because of their ignorance, or is their ignorance culpable? In this paper I examine these questions from the perspective of recent developments in the theories of responsibility for ignorant action and characterize their verdicts. After developing some objections to existing attempts to explore these questions, I characterize two influential theories of moral responsibility and discuss their implications for three different types of ignorance about climate change. I conclude with some recommendations for how we should react to the face of the theories' conflicting verdicts. The answer to the question posed in the title, then, is: "Well, it's complicated."}, }
@article {pmid27895833, year = {2016}, author = {Bickton, FM}, title = {Climate change as the biggest threat to public health in southern Africa and measures to reduce its impacts.}, journal = {Malawi medical journal : the journal of Medical Association of Malawi}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {70-72}, pmid = {27895833}, issn = {1995-7270}, mesh = {Africa, Southern ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disasters ; Food Supply ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Public Opinion ; }, }
@article {pmid27890966, year = {2016}, author = {van Leuken, JP and Swart, AN and Droogers, P and van Pul, A and Heederik, D and Havelaar, AH}, title = {Climate change effects on airborne pathogenic bioaerosol concentrations: a scenario analysis.}, journal = {Aerobiologia}, volume = {32}, number = {4}, pages = {607-617}, pmid = {27890966}, issn = {0393-5965}, abstract = {The most recent IPCC report presented further scientific evidence for global climate change in the twenty-first century. Important secondary effects of climate change include those on water resource availability, agricultural yields, urban healthy living, biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and public health. The aim of this explorative study was to determine the range of expected airborne pathogen concentrations during a single outbreak or release in a future climate compared to a historical climatic period (1981-2010). We used five climate scenarios for the periods 2016-2045 and 2036-2065 defined by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and two conversion tools to create hourly future meteorological data sets. We modelled season-averaged airborne pathogen concentrations by means of an atmospheric dispersion model and compared these data to historical (1981-2010) modelled concentrations. Our results showed that modelled concentrations were modified several percentage points on average as a result of climate change. On average, concentrations were reduced in four out of five scenarios. Wind speed and global radiation were of critical importance, which determine horizontal and vertical dilution. Modelled concentrations decreased on average, but large positive and negative hourly averaged effects were calculated (from -67 to +639 %). This explorative study shows that further research should include pathogen inactivation and more detailed probability functions on precipitation, snow, and large-scale circulation.}, }
@article {pmid27889364, year = {2017}, author = {Van Looy, K and Piffady, J}, title = {Metapopulation modelling of riparian tree species persistence in river networks under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {202}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {437-446}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.11.019}, pmid = {27889364}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; *Rivers ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Floodplain landscapes are highly fragmented by river regulation resulting in habitat degradation and flood regime perturbation, posing risks to population persistence. Climate change is expected to pose supplementary risks in this context of fragmented landscapes, and especially for river systems adaptation management programs are developed. The association of habitat quality and quantity with the landscape dynamics and resilience to human-induced disturbances is still poorly understood in the context of species survival and colonization processes, but essential to prioritize conservation and restoration actions. We present a modelling approach that elucidates network connectivity and landscape dynamics in spatial and temporal context to identify vital corridors and conservation priorities in the Loire river and its tributaries. Alteration of flooding and flow regimes is believed to be critical to population dynamics in river ecosystems. Still, little is known of critical levels of alteration both spatially and temporally. We applied metapopulation modelling approaches for a dispersal-limited tree species, white elm; and a recruitment-limited tree species, black poplar. In different model steps the connectivity and natural dynamics of the river landscape are confronted with physical alterations (dams/dykes) to species survival and then future scenarios for climatic changes and potential adaptation measures are entered in the model and translated in population persistence over the river basin. For the two tree species we highlighted crucial network zones in relation to habitat quality and connectivity. Where the human impact model already shows currently restricted metapopulation development, climate change is projected to aggravate this persistence perspective substantially. For both species a significant drawback to the basin population is observed, with 1/3 for elm and ¼ for poplar after 25 years already. But proposed adaptation measures prove effective to even bring metapopulation strength and persistence up to a level above the current level.}, }
@article {pmid27888775, year = {2017}, author = {Schoen, ME and Xue, X and Wood, A and Hawkins, TR and Garland, J and Ashbolt, NJ}, title = {Cost, energy, global warming, eutrophication and local human health impacts of community water and sanitation service options.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {109}, number = {}, pages = {186-195}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2016.11.044}, pmid = {27888775}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Eutrophication ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Sanitation ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/economics ; Wastewater ; Water ; }, abstract = {We compared water and sanitation system options for a coastal community across selected sustainability metrics, including environmental impact (i.e., life cycle eutrophication potential, energy consumption, and global warming potential), equivalent annual cost, and local human health impact. We computed normalized metric scores, which we used to discuss the options' strengths and weaknesses, and conducted sensitivity analysis of the scores to changes in variable and uncertain input parameters. The alternative systems, which combined centralized drinking water with sanitation services based on the concepts of energy and nutrient recovery as well as on-site water reuse, had reduced environmental and local human health impacts and costs than the conventional, centralized option. Of the selected sustainability metrics, the greatest advantages of the alternative community water systems (compared to the conventional system) were in terms of local human health impact and eutrophication potential, despite large, outstanding uncertainties. Of the alternative options, the systems with on-site water reuse and energy recovery technologies had the least local human health impact; however, the cost of these options was highly variable and the energy consumption was comparable to on-site alternatives without water reuse or energy recovery, due to on-site reuse treatment. Future work should aim to reduce the uncertainty in the energy recovery process and explore the health risks associated with less costly, on-site water treatment options.}, }
@article {pmid27887826, year = {2017}, author = {Linares, R and Roqué, C and Gutiérrez, F and Zarroca, M and Carbonel, D and Bach, J and Fabregat, I}, title = {The impact of droughts and climate change on sinkhole occurrence. A case study from the evaporite karst of the Fluvia Valley, NE Spain.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {579}, number = {}, pages = {345-358}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.091}, pmid = {27887826}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This work introduces the concept that sinkhole frequency in some karst settings increases during drought periods. This conception is tested in a sector of the Fluvia River valley in NE Spain, where subsidence phenomena is related to the karstification of folded Eocene evaporite formations. In the discharge areas, the evaporites behave as confined aquifers affected by hypogene karstification caused by aggressive artesian flows coming form an underlying carbonate aquifer. A sinkhole inventory with chronological data has been constructed, revealing temporal clusters. Those clusters show a good correlation with drought periods, as revealed by precipitation, river discharge and piezometric data. This temporal association is particularly obvious for the last and current drought starting in 1998, which is the most intense of the record period (1940-present). Climatic projections based on recent studies foresee an intensification of the droughts in this sector of NE Spain, which could be accompanied by the enhancement of the sinkhole hazard and the associated risks.}, }
@article {pmid27886199, year = {2016}, author = {Balaguru, K and Foltz, GR and Leung, LR and Emanuel, KA}, title = {Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {13670}, pmid = {27886199}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall in places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961-2008 is ∼53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes.}, }
@article {pmid27881748, year = {2016}, author = {Jezkova, T and Wiens, JJ}, title = {Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {283}, number = {1843}, pages = {}, pmid = {27881748}, issn = {1471-2954}, support = {K12 GM000708/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/classification ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Mammals/classification ; Models, Biological ; Phylogeography ; Plants/classification ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27880846, year = {2016}, author = {Upson, R and Williams, JJ and Wilkinson, TP and Clubbe, CP and Maclean, IM and McAdam, JH and Moat, JF}, title = {Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {e0167026}, pmid = {27880846}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Falkland Islands ; *Models, Biological ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020-2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements.}, }
@article {pmid27878538, year = {2016}, author = {Thompson-Hall, M and Carr, ER and Pascual, U}, title = {Enhancing and expanding intersectional research for climate change adaptation in agrarian settings.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {45}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {373-382}, pmid = {27878538}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; Female ; *Gender Identity ; Humans ; Male ; Research ; }, abstract = {Most current approaches focused on vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation to climate change frame gender and its influence in a manner out-of-step with contemporary academic and international development research. The tendency to rely on analyses of the sex-disaggregated gender categories of 'men' and 'women' as sole or principal divisions explaining the abilities of different people within a group to adapt to climate change, illustrates this problem. This framing of gender persists in spite of established bodies of knowledge that show how roles and responsibilities that influence a person´s ability to deal with climate-induced and other stressors emerge at the intersection of diverse identity categories, including but not limited to gender, age, seniority, ethnicity, marital status, and livelihoods. Here, we provide a review of relevant literature on this topic and argue that approaching vulnerability to climate change through intersectional understandings of identity can help improve adaptation programming, project design, implementation, and outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid27878532, year = {2016}, author = {Ravera, F and Martín-López, B and Pascual, U and Drucker, A}, title = {The diversity of gendered adaptation strategies to climate change of Indian farmers: A feminist intersectional approach.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {45}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {335-351}, pmid = {27878532}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Female ; *Gender Identity ; Humans ; India ; Male ; *Social Environment ; }, abstract = {This paper examines climate change adaptation and gender issues through an application of a feminist intersectional approach. This approach permits the identification of diverse adaptation responses arising from the existence of multiple and fragmented dimensions of identity (including gender) that intersect with power relations to shape situation-specific interactions between farmers and ecosystems. Based on results from contrasting research cases in Bihar and Uttarakhand, India, this paper demonstrates, inter alia, that there are geographically determined gendered preferences and adoption strategies regarding adaptation options and that these are influenced by the socio-ecological context and institutional dynamics. Intersecting identities, such as caste, wealth, age and gender, influence decisions and reveal power dynamics and negotiation within the household and the community, as well as barriers to adaptation among groups. Overall, the findings suggest that a feminist intersectional approach does appear to be useful and worth further exploration in the context of climate change adaptation. In particular, future research could benefit from more emphasis on a nuanced analysis of the intra-gender differences that shape adaptive capacity to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27878531, year = {2016}, author = {Djoudi, H and Locatelli, B and Vaast, C and Asher, K and Brockhaus, M and Basnett Sijapati, B}, title = {Beyond dichotomies: Gender and intersecting inequalities in climate change studies.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {45}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {248-262}, pmid = {27878531}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Feminism ; *Gender Identity ; Humans ; *Research ; *Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change and related adaptation strategies have gender-differentiated impacts. This paper reviews how gender is framed in 41 papers on climate change adaptation through an intersectionality lens. The main findings show that while intersectional analysis has demonstrated many advantages for a comprehensive study of gender, it has not yet entered the field of climate change and gender. In climate change studies, gender is mostly handled in a men-versus-women dichotomy and little or no attention has been paid to power and social and political relations. These gaps which are echoed in other domains of development and gender research depict a 'feminization of vulnerability' and reinforce a 'victimization' discourse within climate change studies. We argue that a critical intersectional assessment would contribute to unveil agency and emancipatory pathways in the adaptation process by providing a better understanding of how the differential impacts of climate change shape, and are shaped by, the complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations.}, }
@article {pmid27873482, year = {2016}, author = {Bush, A and Mokany, K and Catullo, R and Hoffmann, A and Kellermann, V and Sgrò, C and McEvey, S and Ferrier, S}, title = {Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {1468-1478}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12696}, pmid = {27873482}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Australia ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Drosophila/*genetics/physiology ; Genetic Fitness ; *Models, Biological ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27873107, year = {2016}, author = {Abah, RC and Petja, BM}, title = {Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {188}, number = {12}, pages = {683}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-016-5700-x}, pmid = {27873107}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Droughts ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fertilizers ; Floods ; Human Migration ; Humans ; Income ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m[3] s[-1]), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m[3] s[-1]. The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid27871118, year = {2017}, author = {Smith, SH and Steenhof, K and McClure, CJ and Heath, JA}, title = {Earlier nesting by generalist predatory bird is associated with human responses to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {86}, number = {1}, pages = {98-107}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12604}, pmid = {27871118}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Falconiformes/*physiology ; Grassland ; Idaho ; *Nesting Behavior ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Warming temperatures cause temporal changes in growing seasons and prey abundance that drive earlier breeding by birds, especially dietary specialists within homogeneous habitat. Less is known about how generalists respond to climate-associated shifts in growing seasons or prey phenology, which may occur at different rates across land cover types. We studied whether breeding phenology of a generalist predator, the American kestrel (Falco sparverius), was associated with shifts in growing seasons and, presumably, prey abundance, in a mosaic of non-irrigated shrub/grasslands and irrigated crops/pastures. We examined the relationship between remotely-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and abundance of small mammals that, with insects, constitute approximately 93% of kestrel diet biomass. We used NDVI to estimate the start of the growing season (SoGS) in irrigated and non-irrigated lands from 1992 to 2015 and tested whether either estimate of annual SoGS predicted the timing of kestrel nesting. Finally, we examined relationships among irrigated SoGS, weather and crop planting. NDVI was a useful proxy for kestrel prey because it predicted small mammal abundance and past studies showed that NDVI predicts insect abundance. NDVI-estimated SoGS advanced significantly in irrigated lands (β = -1·09 ± 0·30 SE) but not in non-irrigated lands (β = -0·57 ± 0·53). Average date of kestrel nesting advanced 15 days in the past 24 years and was positively associated with the SoGS in irrigated lands, but not the SoGS in non-irrigated lands. Advanced SoGS in irrigated lands was related to earlier planting of crops after relatively warm winters, which were more common in recent years. Despite different patterns of SoGS change between land cover types, kestrel nesting phenology shifted with earlier prey availability in irrigated lands. Kestrels may preferentially track prey in irrigated lands over non-irrigated lands because of higher quality prey on irrigated lands, or earlier prey abundance may release former constraints on other selective pressures to breed early, such as seasonal declines in fecundity or competition for high-quality mates. This is one of the first examples of an association between human adaptation to climate change and shifts in breeding phenology of wildlife.}, }
@article {pmid27870075, year = {2016}, author = {Rodó, X}, title = {Human health in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1382}, number = {1}, pages = {3-7}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.13286}, pmid = {27870075}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Disease Vectors ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; Parasitic Diseases/*epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid27867400, year = {2016}, author = {Kabir, R and Khan, HT and Ball, E and Caldwell, K}, title = {Climate Change Impact: The Experience of the Coastal Areas of Bangladesh Affected by Cyclones Sidr and Aila.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2016}, number = {}, pages = {9654753}, pmid = {27867400}, issn = {1687-9813}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Disasters/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Health Status ; Humans ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Bangladesh is considered one of the countries most at risk to the effects of climate change and its coastal area is most vulnerable. This study tries to explore the experiences of cyclones Sidr and Aila affected people living in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. This study was conducted in the cyclone Sidr affected Amtali Upazila of Barguna District and in the cyclone Aila affected Koyra Upazila of Khulna District. Primary data collection was done using Focus Group Interview and then a thematic analysis approach was used for analysis. Three core themes emerged from the analysis and they are, firstly, impacts of climate change on the socioeconomic condition of the people, secondly, the impact on the health status of the population, and finally the impact on vulnerable people. Findings show that the effects of climate change have serious consequences on the livelihood patterns of the affected population and on their overall health status. As a result, the unfavorable health condition of these affected people makes them more vulnerable to various emerging diseases.}, }
@article {pmid27861866, year = {2017}, author = {Townhill, BL and Pinnegar, JK and Righton, DA and Metcalfe, JD}, title = {Fisheries, low oxygen and climate change: how much do we really know?.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {90}, number = {3}, pages = {723-750}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.13203}, pmid = {27861866}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Fishes/*physiology ; Hypoxia ; Models, Biological ; Oxygen/*physiology ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {As a result of long-term climate change, regions of the ocean with low oxygen concentrations are predicted to occur more frequently and persist for longer periods of time in the future. When low levels of oxygen are present, this places additional pressure on marine organisms to meet their metabolic requirements, with implications for growth, feeding and reproduction. Extensive research has been carried out on the effects of acute hypoxia, but far less on long-term chronic effects of low oxygen zones, especially with regard to commercially important fishes and shellfishes. To provide further understanding on how commercial species could be affected, the results of relevant experiments must support population and ecosystem models. This is not easy because individual effects are wide-ranging; for example, studies to date have shown that low oxygen zones can affect predator-prey relationships as some species are able to tolerate low oxygen more than others. Some fishes may move away from areas until oxygen levels return to acceptable levels, while others take advantage of a reduced start response in prey fishes and remain in the area to feed. Sessile or less mobile species such as shellfishes are unable to move out of depleted oxygen zones. Some species can tolerate low oxygen levels for only short periods of time, while others are able to acclimatize. To advance the knowledge-base further, a number of promising technological and modelling-based developments and the role of physiological data within these, are proposed. These include advances in remote telemetry (tagging) and sensor technologies, trait-based analyses to provide insight into how whole assemblages might respond in the future, research into long-term adaptability of species, population and ecosystem modelling techniques and quantification of economic effects. In addition, more detailed oxygen monitoring and projections are required to better understand the likely temporal and local-scale changes in oxygen.}, }
@article {pmid27859101, year = {2016}, author = {Guittar, J and Goldberg, D and Klanderud, K and Telford, RJ and Vandvik, V}, title = {Can trait patterns along gradients predict plant community responses to climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {97}, number = {10}, pages = {2791-2801}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.1500}, pmid = {27859101}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Norway ; Plant Leaves ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Plant functional traits vary consistently along climate gradients and are therefore potential predictors of plant community response to climate change. We test this space-for-time assumption by combining a spatial gradient study with whole-community turf transplantation along temperature and precipitation gradients in a network of 12 grassland sites in Southern Norway. Using data on eight traits for 169 species and annual vegetation censuses of 235 turfs over 5 yr, we quantify trait-based responses to climate change by comparing observed community dynamics in transplanted turfs to field-parameterized null model simulations. Three traits related to species architecture (maximum height, number of dormant meristems, and ramet-ramet connection persistence) varied consistently along spatial temperature gradients and also correlated to changes in species abundances in turfs transplanted to warmer climates. Two traits associated with resource acquisition strategy (SLA, leaf area) increased along spatial temperature gradients but did not correlate to changes in species abundances following warming. No traits correlated consistently with precipitation. Our study supports the hypothesis that spatial associations between plant traits and broad-scale climate variables can be predictive of community response to climate change, but it also suggests that not all traits with clear patterns along climate gradients will necessarily influence community response to an equal degree.}, }
@article {pmid27859085, year = {2016}, author = {Palmquist, KA and Schlaepfer, DR and Bradford, JB and Lauenroth, WK}, title = {Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: climate change consequences for soil water resources.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {97}, number = {9}, pages = {2342-2354}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.1457}, pmid = {27859085}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Plants ; Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; Water Resources ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: (1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems, and (2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT, to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, whereas changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer, drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen.}, }
@article {pmid27856085, year = {2017}, author = {Watts, N and Adger, WN and Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Bai, Y and Byass, P and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Colbourn, T and Cox, P and Davies, M and Depledge, M and Depoux, A and Dominguez-Salas, P and Drummond, P and Ekins, P and Flahault, A and Grace, D and Graham, H and Haines, A and Hamilton, I and Johnson, A and Kelman, I and Kovats, S and Liang, L and Lott, M and Lowe, R and Luo, Y and Mace, G and Maslin, M and Morrissey, K and Murray, K and Neville, T and Nilsson, M and Oreszczyn, T and Parthemore, C and Pencheon, D and Robinson, E and Schütte, S and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Vineis, P and Wilkinson, P and Wheeler, N and Xu, B and Yang, J and Yin, Y and Yu, C and Gong, P and Montgomery, H and Costello, A}, title = {The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {389}, number = {10074}, pages = {1151-1164}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32124-9}, pmid = {27856085}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; /WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Biomarkers ; *Global Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27854248, year = {2016}, author = {Bhore, SJ}, title = {Paris Agreement on Climate Change: A Booster to Enable Sustainable Global Development and Beyond.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {27854248}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; *International Cooperation ; Paris ; *United Nations ; }, abstract = {The global warming and its adverse effects on the atmosphere, the biosphere, the lithosphere, and the hydrosphere are obvious. Based on this fact, the international community is fully convinced that we need to fix the problem urgently for our survival, good health, and wellbeing. The aim of this article is to promote the awareness about the United Nations (UN) historic 'Paris Agreement on Climate Change (PACC)' which entered into-force on 4 November 2016. The expected impact of PACC on the global average temperature rise by 2100 as well as its role in enabling accomplishment of global sustainable development goals (SDGs) for the people and planet is also highlighted.}, }
@article {pmid27854068, year = {2017}, author = {Ojea, E and Pearlman, I and Gaines, SD and Lester, SE}, title = {Fisheries regulatory regimes and resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {46}, number = {4}, pages = {399-412}, pmid = {27854068}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Fisheries/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Government Regulation ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already producing ecological, social, and economic impacts on fisheries, and these effects are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude in the future. Fisheries governance and regulations can alter socio-ecological resilience to climate change impacts via harvest control rules and incentives driving fisher behavior, yet there are no syntheses or conceptual frameworks for examining how institutions and their regulatory approaches can alter fisheries resilience to climate change. We identify nine key climate resilience criteria for fisheries socio-ecological systems (SES), defining resilience as the ability of the coupled system of interacting social and ecological components (i.e., the SES) to absorb change while avoiding transformation into a different undesirable state. We then evaluate the capacity of four fisheries regulatory systems that vary in their degree of property rights, including open access, limited entry, and two types of rights-based management, to increase or inhibit resilience. Our exploratory assessment of evidence in the literature suggests that these regulatory regimes vary widely in their ability to promote resilient fisheries, with rights-based approaches appearing to offer more resilience benefits in many cases, but detailed characteristics of the regulatory instruments are fundamental.}, }
@article {pmid27853231, year = {2016}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {How much longer can Antarctica's hostile ocean delay global warming?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {539}, number = {7629}, pages = {346-348}, pmid = {27853231}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; *Ice Cover ; Oceans and Seas ; }, }
@article {pmid27847824, year = {2016}, author = {Ivanescu, L and Bodale, I and Florescu, SA and Roman, C and Acatrinei, D and Miron, L}, title = {Climate Change Is Increasing the Risk of the Reemergence of Malaria in Romania.}, journal = {BioMed research international}, volume = {2016}, number = {}, pages = {8560519}, pmid = {27847824}, issn = {2314-6141}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*etiology ; Risk ; Romania/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The climatic modifications lead to global warming; favouring the risk of the appearance and development of diseases are considered until now tropical diseases. Another important factor is the workers' immigration, the economic crisis favouring the passive transmission of new species of culicidae from different areas. Malaria is the disease with the widest distribution in the globe. Millions of people are infected every year in Africa, India, South-East Asia, Middle East, and Central and South America, with more than 41% of the global population under the risk of infestation with malaria. The increase of the number of local cases reported in 2007-2011 indicates that the conditions can favour the high local transmission in the affected areas. In the situation presented, the establishment of the level of risk concerning the reemergence of malaria in Romania becomes a priority.}, }
@article {pmid27846577, year = {2016}, author = {Scheffers, BR and De Meester, L and Bridge, TC and Hoffmann, AA and Pandolfi, JM and Corlett, RT and Butchart, SH and Pearce-Kelly, P and Kovacs, KM and Dudgeon, D and Pacifici, M and Rondinini, C and Foden, WB and Martin, TG and Mora, C and Bickford, D and Watson, JE}, title = {The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {354}, number = {6313}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaf7671}, pmid = {27846577}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics ; Fisheries ; Food Chain ; Fresh Water ; *Genetic Variation ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Sex Ratio ; }, abstract = {Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid27846412, year = {2017}, author = {Parker, GB and Hadzi-Pavlovic, D and Graham, RK}, title = {Examining for any impact of climate change on the association between seasonality and hospitalization for mania.}, journal = {Journal of affective disorders}, volume = {208}, number = {}, pages = {431-435}, doi = {10.1016/j.jad.2016.11.006}, pmid = {27846412}, issn = {1573-2517}, mesh = {Bipolar Disorder/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Hospitalization/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hospitals, Psychiatric ; Humans ; New South Wales/epidemiology ; Patient Admission/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Regression Analysis ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Studies have established higher rates of hospitalization for mania in spring and summer and posit various explanatory climatic variables. As the earth's climate is changing, we pursue whether this is reflected in the yearly seasonal variation in hospitalizations for mania. This would be indicated by the presence of secular changes in both the hospitalization seasonal pattern and climatic variables, and associations between both variable sets.<br><br>METHODS: Data were obtained for 21,882 individuals hospitalized to psychiatric hospitals in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) over a 14-year period (2000-2014) with ICD-diagnosed mania - and with NSW population figures and salient climatic variables collected for the same period. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the predictive value of climate variables on hospital admissions.<br><br>RESULTS: Data quantified a peak for manic admissions in spring of the southern hemisphere, in the months of October and November. There was a significant linear increase in manic admissions (0.5%/year) over the 14-year time period, with significant variation across years. In terms of climatic variables, there was a significant linear trend over the interval for solar radiation, although the trend indicated a decrease rather than an increase. Seasonal variation in admissions was most closely associated with two climate variables - evaporation in the current month and temperature in the previous month.<br><br>LIMITATIONS: Hospitalization rates do not necessarily provide an accurate estimate of the onset of manic episodes and findings may be limited to the southern hemisphere, or New South Wales.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: While overall findings do not support the hypothesis that climate change is leading to a higher seasonal impact for manic hospital admissions in the southern hemisphere, analyses identified two climate/weather variables - evaporation and temperature - that may account for the yearly spring excess.}, }
@article {pmid27845760, year = {2016}, author = {Ji, C and Cao, W and Chen, Y and Yang, H}, title = {Carbon Balance and Contribution of Harvested Wood Products in China Based on the Production Approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {27845760}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/analysis/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Carbon Footprint/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change ; Wood/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The carbon sequestration of harvested wood products (HWP) plays an important role in climate mitigation. Accounting the carbon contribution of national HWP carbon pools has been listed as one of the key topics for negotiation in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. On the basis of the revised Production Approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) (IPCC), this study assessed the accounting of carbon stock and emissions from the HWP pool in China and then analyzed its balance and contribution to carbon mitigation from 1960 to 2014. Research results showed that the accumulated carbon stock in China's HWP carbon pool increased from 130 Teragrams Carbon (TgC) in 1960 to 705.6 TgC in 2014. The annual increment in the carbon stock rose from 3.2 TgC in 1960 to 45.2 TgC in 2014. The category of solid wood products accounted for approximately 95% of the annual amount. The reduction in carbon emissions was approximately twelve times that of the emissions from the HWP producing and processing stage during the last decade. Furthermore, the amount of carbon stock and emission reduction increased from 23 TgC in 1960 to 76.1 TgC in 2014. The annual contribution of HWP could compensate for approximately 2.9% of the national carbon dioxide emissions in China.}, }
@article {pmid27845372, year = {2016}, author = {Van Dyck, H and Holveck, MJ}, title = {Ecotypic differentiation matters for latitudinal variation in energy metabolism and flight performance in a butterfly under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {36941}, pmid = {27845372}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Butterflies/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Ecotype ; Energy Metabolism/*physiology ; Flight, Animal/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Life histories of organisms may vary with latitude as they experience different thermal constraints and challenges. This geographic, intraspecific variation could be of significance for range dynamics under climate change beyond edge-core comparisons. In this study, we did a reciprocal transplant experiment between the temperature-regimes of two latitudes with an ectotherm insect, examining the effects on energy metabolism and flight performance. Pararge aegeria expanded its ecological niche from cool woodland (ancestral) to warmer habitat in agricultural landscape (novel ecotype). Northern males had higher standard metabolic rates than southern males, but in females these rates depended on their ecotype. Southern males flew for longer than northern ones. In females, body mass-corrected flight performance depended on latitude and thermal treatment during larval development and in case of the southern females, their interaction. Our experimental study provides evidence for the role of ecological differentiation at the core of the range to modulate ecophysiology and flight performance at different latitudes, which in turn may affect the climatic responsiveness of the species.}, }
@article {pmid27843166, year = {2016}, author = {Tong, S and Berry, HL and Ebi, K and Bambrick, H and Hu, W and Green, D and Hanna, E and Wang, Z and Butler, CD}, title = {Climate change, food, water and population health in China.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {94}, number = {10}, pages = {759-765}, pmid = {27843166}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forecasting ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Public Policy ; *Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.}, }
@article {pmid27843109, year = {2017}, author = {Baker-Austin, C and Trinanes, J and Gonzalez-Escalona, N and Martinez-Urtaza, J}, title = {Non-Cholera Vibrios: The Microbial Barometer of Climate Change.}, journal = {Trends in microbiology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {76-84}, doi = {10.1016/j.tim.2016.09.008}, pmid = {27843109}, issn = {1878-4380}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Climatic Processes ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Seawater/microbiology ; Vibrio Infections/*epidemiology/microbiology/pathology ; Vibrio cholerae/*growth &amp; development ; Vibrio parahaemolyticus/*growth &amp; development ; Vibrio vulnificus/*growth &amp; development ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {There is a growing interest in the role of climate change in driving the spread of waterborne infectious diseases, such as those caused by bacterial pathogens. One particular group of pathogenic bacteria - vibrios - are a globally important cause of diseases in humans and aquatic animals. These Gram-negative bacteria, including the species Vibrio vulnificus, Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio cholerae, grow in warm, low-salinity waters, and their abundance in the natural environment mirrors ambient environmental temperatures. In a rapidly warming marine environment, there are greater numbers of human infections, and most notably outbreaks linked to extreme weather events such as heatwaves in temperate regions such as Northern Europe. Because the growth of pathogenic vibrios in the natural environment is largely dictated by temperature, we argue that this group of pathogens represents an important and tangible barometer of climate change in marine systems. We provide a number of specific examples of the impacts of climate change on this group of bacteria and their associated diseases, and discuss advanced strategies to improve our understanding of these emerging waterborne diseases through the integration of microbiological, genomic, epidemiological, climatic, and ocean sciences.}, }
@article {pmid27842412, year = {2016}, author = {Reines, EJ}, title = {Climate Change and Health.}, journal = {Annals of internal medicine}, volume = {165}, number = {10}, pages = {746-747}, doi = {10.7326/L16-0414}, pmid = {27842412}, issn = {1539-3704}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid27842411, year = {2016}, author = {Mondrow, E}, title = {Climate Change and Health.}, journal = {Annals of internal medicine}, volume = {165}, number = {10}, pages = {745-746}, doi = {10.7326/L16-0413}, pmid = {27842411}, issn = {1539-3704}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid27842410, year = {2016}, author = {Berman, DS}, title = {Climate Change and Health.}, journal = {Annals of internal medicine}, volume = {165}, number = {10}, pages = {746}, doi = {10.7326/L16-0412}, pmid = {27842410}, issn = {1539-3704}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid27842409, year = {2016}, author = {Crowley, RA and Moyer, DV and DeLong, DM}, title = {Climate Change and Health.}, journal = {Annals of internal medicine}, volume = {165}, number = {10}, pages = {747-748}, doi = {10.7326/L16-0411}, pmid = {27842409}, issn = {1539-3704}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid27841003, year = {2017}, author = {Webb, L and Darbyshire, R and Erwin, T and Goodwin, I}, title = {A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {61}, number = {5}, pages = {891-901}, pmid = {27841003}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Fruit/physiology/*radiation effects ; Malus/physiology/*radiation effects ; Plant Diseases/*etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Risk ; Sunlight/*adverse effects ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.}, }
@article {pmid27838119, year = {2017}, author = {Sá, JC and Lal, R and Cerri, CC and Lorenz, K and Hungria, M and de Faccio Carvalho, PC}, title = {Low-carbon agriculture in South America to mitigate global climate change and advance food security.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {98}, number = {}, pages = {102-112}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2016.10.020}, pmid = {27838119}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Animals ; Carbon/analysis ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Cattle ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Food ; *Food Supply ; Forests ; Livestock ; Plants/metabolism ; Soil ; South America ; }, abstract = {The worldwide historical carbon (C) losses due to Land Use and Land-Use Change between 1870 and 2014 are estimated at 148 Pg C (1 Pg=1billionton). South America is chosen for this study because its soils contain 10.3% (160 Pg C to 1-m depth) of the soil organic carbon stock of the world soils, it is home to 5.7% (0.419 billion people) of the world population, and accounts for 8.6% of the world food (491milliontons) and 21.0% of meat production (355milliontons of cattle and buffalo). The annual C emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in South America represent only 2.5% (0.25 Pg C) of the total global emissions (9.8 Pg C). However, South America contributes 31.3% (0.34 Pg C) of global annual greenhouse gas emissions (1.1 Pg C) through Land Use and Land Use Change. The potential of South America as a terrestrial C sink for mitigating climate change with adoption of Low-Carbon Agriculture (LCA) strategies based on scenario analysis method is 8.24 Pg C between 2016 and 2050. The annual C offset for 2016 to 2020, 2021 to 2035, and 2036 to 2050 is estimated at 0.08, 0.25, and 0.28 Pg C, respectively, equivalent to offsetting 7.5, 22.2 and 25.2% of the global annual greenhouse gas emissions by Land Use and Land Use Change for each period. Emission offset for LCA activities is estimated at 31.0% by restoration of degraded pasturelands, 25.6% by integrated crop-livestock-forestry-systems, 24.3% by no-till cropping systems, 12.8% by planted commercial forest and forestation, 4.2% by biological N fixation and 2.0% by recycling the industrial organic wastes. The ecosystem carbon payback time for historical C losses from South America through LCA strategies may be 56 to 188years, and the adoption of LCA can also increase food and meat production by 615Mton or 17.6Mtonyear[-1] and 56Mton or 1.6Mtonyear[-1], respectively, between 2016 and 2050.}, }
@article {pmid27836188, year = {2016}, author = {James, NC and Whitfield, AK and Harrison, TD}, title = {Grey mullet (Mugilidae) as possible indicators of global warming in South African estuaries and coastal waters.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {122}, number = {}, pages = {188-195}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2016.11.002}, pmid = {27836188}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Estuaries ; *Global Warming ; Smegmamorpha/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The grey mullet usually occur in large numbers and biomass in the estuaries of all three South African biogeographic regions, thus making it an ideal family to use in terms of possibly acting as an environmental indicator of global warming. In this analysis the relative estuarine abundance of the dominant three groups of mugilids, namely tropical, warm-water and cool-water endemics, were related to sea surface coastal temperatures. The study suggests a strong link between temperature and the distribution and abundance of the three mullet groups within estuaries and indicates the potential of this family to act as an indicator for future climate change within these systems and adjacent coastal waters.}, }
@article {pmid27835976, year = {2016}, author = {Onyango, EA and Sahin, O and Awiti, A and Chu, C and Mackey, B}, title = {An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {551}, pmid = {27835976}, issn = {1475-2875}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Transmission, Infectious ; *Epidemiologic Methods ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Risk ; Risk Assessment ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.}, }
@article {pmid27830414, year = {2017}, author = {Rasiah, R and Ahmed, A and Al-Amin, AQ and Chenayah, S}, title = {Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {2632-2642}, pmid = {27830414}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Malaysia ; *Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.}, }
@article {pmid27829694, year = {2016}, author = {Hamilton, LC and Saito, K and Loring, PA and Lammers, RB and Huntington, HP}, title = {Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska.}, journal = {Population and environment}, volume = {38}, number = {2}, pages = {115-133}, pmid = {27829694}, issn = {0199-0039}, abstract = {Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on "the front line of climate change." Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify the climate contribution. Clearer attribution might come from comparisons of migration rates among places that are similar in most respects, apart from known climatic impacts. We apply this approach using annual 1990-2014 time series on 43 Arctic Alaska towns and villages. Within-community time plots show no indication of enhanced out-migration from the most at-risk communities. More formally, there is no significant difference between net migration rates of at-risk and other places, testing several alternative classifications. Although climigration is not detectable to date, growing risks make either planned or unplanned movements unavoidable in the near future.}, }
@article {pmid27829504, year = {2017}, author = {Qiu, L and Hao, M and Wu, Y}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on carbon dynamics in a rain-fed agro-ecosystem on the Loess Plateau of China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {577}, number = {}, pages = {267-278}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.178}, pmid = {27829504}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Although many studies have been conducted on crop yield in rain-fed agriculture, the possible impacts of climate change on the carbon (C) dynamics of rain-fed rotation systems, particularly their direction and magnitude at the long-term scale, are still poorly understood. In this study, the sensitivity of C dynamics of a typical rotation system to elevated CO2 and changed temperature and precipitation were first tested using the CENTURY model, based on data collected from a 30-year field experiment of a corn-wheat-wheat-millet (CWWM) rotation system in the tableland of the Loess Plateau. The possible responses of crop biomass C and soil organic C (SOC) accumulation were then evaluated under scenarios representing the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results indicated that elevated CO2 and increased precipitation exerted positive effect on biomass C in CWWM rotation system, while increasing the temperature by 1°C, 2°C and 4°C had negative effects on biomass C due to opposite responses of corn and winter wheat to warming. SOC accumulation was enhanced by increased CO2 concentration and precipitation but impaired by increased temperature. Under future RCP scenarios with dynamic CO2, the biomass C of corn exhibited decrease during the period of 2046-2075 under RCP4.5 and the period of 2016-2075 under RCP8.5 due to reduced precipitation and a warmer climate. In contrast, winter wheat would benefit from increased CO2 and temperature and was projected to have larger biomass C under both RCP scenarios. Although the climate condition had large differences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the projected SOC had similar trends under two scenarios due to CO2 fertilizer effect and precipitation fluctuation. These results implied that crop biomass C and SOC accumulation in a warmer environment are strongly related to precipitation, and increase in field water storage should be emphasized in coping with future climate.}, }
@article {pmid27829036, year = {2016}, author = {Ribeiro, BR and Sales, LP and De Marco, P and Loyola, R}, title = {Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {e0165073}, pmid = {27829036}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Brazil ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Geography ; Mammals/classification/*physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species' response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species' range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species' vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species' ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.}, }
@article {pmid27829008, year = {2016}, author = {McFadden, BR}, title = {Examining the Gap between Science and Public Opinion about Genetically Modified Food and Global Warming.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {e0166140}, pmid = {27829008}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; Female ; *Food, Genetically Modified/adverse effects/economics ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Male ; Models, Econometric ; *Public Opinion ; Science ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {There is great uncertainty due to challenges of escalating population growth and climate change. Public perception that diverges from the scientific community may decrease the effectiveness of scientific inquiry and innovation as tools to solve these challenges. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with the divergence of public opinion from scientific consensus regarding the safety of genetically modified (GM) foods and human involvement in global warming (GW). Results indicate that the effects of knowledge on public opinion are complex and non-uniform across types of knowledge (i.e., perceived and actual) or issues. Political affiliation affects agreement with science; Democrats were more likely to agree that GM food is safe and human actions cause GW. Respondents who had relatively higher cognitive function or held illusionary correlations about GM food or GW were more likely to have an opinion that differed from the scientific community.}, }
@article {pmid27828994, year = {2016}, author = {Lutz, AF and Immerzeel, WW and Kraaijenbrink, PD and Shrestha, AB and Bierkens, MF}, title = {Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {e0165630}, pmid = {27828994}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Afghanistan ; China ; Climate ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hydrology/methods/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ice Cover ; India ; *Models, Statistical ; Pakistan ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Snow ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.}, }
@article {pmid27818886, year = {2016}, author = {Grüneis, H and Penker, M and Höferl, KM}, title = {The full spectrum of climate change adaptation: testing an analytical framework in Tyrolean mountain agriculture (Austria).}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {1848}, pmid = {27818886}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {Our scientific view on climate change adaptation (CCA) is unsatisfying in many ways: It is often dominated by a modernistic perspective of planned pro-active adaptation, with a selective focus on measures directly responding to climate change impacts and thus it is far from real-life conditions of those who are actually affected by climate change. Farmers have to simultaneously adapt to multiple changes. Therefore, also empirical climate change adaptation research needs a more integrative perspective on real-life climate change adaptations. This also has to consider "hidden" adaptations, which are not explicitly and directly motivated by CCA but actually contribute to the sector's adaptability to climate change. The aim of the present study is to develop and test an analytic framework that contributes to a broader understanding of CCA and to bridge the gap between scientific expertise and practical action. The framework distinguishes three types of CCA according to their climate related motivations: explicit adaptations, multi-purpose adaptations, and hidden adaptations. Although agriculture is among the sectors that are most affected by climate change, results from the case study of Tyrolean mountain agriculture show that climate change is ranked behind other more pressing "real-life-challenges" such as changing agricultural policies or market conditions. We identified numerous hidden adaptations which make a valuable contribution when dealing with climate change impacts. We conclude that these hidden adaptations have not only to be considered to get an integrative und more realistic view on CCA; they also provide a great opportunity for linking adaptation strategies to farmers' realities.}, }
@article {pmid27814029, year = {2017}, author = {Lynch-Stieglitz, J}, title = {The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {83-104}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060415}, pmid = {27814029}, issn = {1941-0611}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Geologic Sediments ; Temperature ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Abrupt changes in climate have occurred in many locations around the globe over the last glacial cycle, with pronounced temperature swings on timescales of decades or less in the North Atlantic. The global pattern of these changes suggests that they reflect variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This review examines the evidence from ocean sediments for ocean circulation change over these abrupt events. The evidence for changes in the strength and structure of the AMOC associated with the Younger Dryas and many of the Heinrich events is strong. Although it has been difficult to directly document changes in the AMOC over the relatively short Dansgaard-Oeschger events, there is recent evidence supporting AMOC changes over most of these oscillations as well. The lack of direct evidence for circulation changes over the shortest events leaves open the possibility of other driving mechanisms for millennial-scale climate variability.}, }
@article {pmid27810766, year = {2017}, author = {Azhoni, A and Holman, I and Jude, S}, title = {Contextual and interdependent causes of climate change adaptation barriers: Insights from water management institutions in Himachal Pradesh, India.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {576}, number = {}, pages = {817-828}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.151}, pmid = {27810766}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; India ; Water ; *Water Resources ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Research on adaptation barriers is increasing as the need for climate change adaptation becomes evident. However, empirical studies regarding the emergence, causes and sustenance of adaptation barriers remain limited. This research identifies key contextual causes of adaptation barriers in water institutions in the mountainous Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh in northern India. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with representatives from twenty-six key governmental, non-governmental, academic and research institutions in the State with responsibilities spanning domestic water supply, irrigation and hydropower generation, environmental monitoring and research. It identified low knowledge capacity and resources, policy implementation gaps, normative attitudes, and unavailability and inaccessibility of data and information compounded with weak interinstitutional networks as key adaptation barriers. Although these barriers are similar to those reported elsewhere, they have important locally-contextual root causes. For instance, inadequate resources result from fragmented resources allocation due to competing developmental priorities and the desire of the political leadership to please diverse electors, rather than climate scepticism. The identified individual barriers are found to be highly inter-dependent and closely intertwined which enables the identification of leverage points for interventions to maximise barrier removal. For instance, breaking down key barriers hindering accessibility to data and information, which are shaped by systemic bureaucracies and cultural attitudes, will involve attitudinal change through sensitisation to the importance of accurate and accessible data and information and the building trust between different actors, in addition to institutional structural changes through legislation and inter-institutional agreements. Approaching barriers as a system of contextually interconnected cultural, systemic, geographical and political underlying factors enriches the understanding of adaptation enablers, thereby contributing to achieving a better adapted society.}, }
@article {pmid27810386, year = {2016}, author = {Wu, YP}, title = {Climate change is a potential factor for the emergence of pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Comment on "Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties" by Gui-Quan Sun et al.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {19}, number = {}, pages = {98-99}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2016.10.003}, pmid = {27810386}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Epidemics ; }, }
@article {pmid27809970, year = {2016}, author = {Rose Vineer, H and Steiner, J and Knapp-Lawitzke, F and Bull, K and von Son-de Fernex, E and Bosco, A and Hertzberg, H and Demeler, J and Rinaldi, L and Morrison, AA and Skuce, P and Bartley, DJ and Morgan, ER}, title = {Implications of between-isolate variation for climate change impact modelling of Haemonchus contortus populations.}, journal = {Veterinary parasitology}, volume = {229}, number = {}, pages = {144-149}, doi = {10.1016/j.vetpar.2016.10.015}, pmid = {27809970}, issn = {1873-2550}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Goat Diseases/epidemiology/parasitology ; Goats ; Haemonchiasis/epidemiology/parasitology/*veterinary ; Haemonchus/classification/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Risk Assessment ; Seasons ; Sheep ; Sheep Diseases/epidemiology/parasitology ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on parasites and parasitic diseases is a growing concern and numerous empirical and mechanistic models have been developed to predict climate-driven spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of parasites and disease risk. Variation in parasite phenotype and life-history traits between isolates could undermine the application of such models at broad spatial scales. Seasonal variation in the transmission of the haematophagous gastrointestinal nematode Haemonchus contortus, one of the most pathogenic helminth species infecting sheep and goats worldwide, is primarily determined by the impact of environmental conditions on the free-living stages. To evaluate variability in the development success and mortality of the free-living stages of H. contortus and the impact of this variability on future climate impact modelling, three isolates of diverse origin were cultured at a range of temperatures between 15°C and 37°C to determine their development success compared with simulations using the GLOWORM-FL H. contortus model. No significant difference was observed in the developmental success of the three isolates of H. contortus tested, nor between isolates and model simulations. However, development success of all isolates at 37°C was lower than predicted by the model, suggesting the potential for overestimation of transmission risk at higher temperatures, such as those predicted under some scenarios of climate change. Recommendations are made for future climate impact modelling of gastrointestinal nematodes.}, }
@article {pmid27677853, year = {2017}, author = {Lu, H and McComas, KA and Besley, JC}, title = {Messages promoting genetic modification of crops in the context of climate change: Evidence for psychological reactance.}, journal = {Appetite}, volume = {108}, number = {}, pages = {104-116}, doi = {10.1016/j.appet.2016.09.026}, pmid = {27677853}, issn = {1095-8304}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Anger ; *Climate Change/economics ; Crops, Agricultural/*adverse effects/economics/genetics/growth &amp; development ; Cues ; Diet Surveys ; *Diet, Healthy/economics/psychology ; Female ; *Food Supply/economics ; Food, Genetically Modified/*adverse effects/economics ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Promotion/ethics/methods ; Humans ; Intention ; Internet ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Models, Psychological ; Motivation ; Plants, Genetically Modified/*adverse effects/genetics/growth &amp; development ; United States ; }, abstract = {Genetic modification (GM) of crops and climate change are arguably two of today's most challenging science communication issues. Increasingly, these two issues are connected in messages proposing GM as a viable option for ensuring global food security threatened by climate change. This study examines the effects of messages promoting the benefits of GM in the context of climate change. Further, it examines whether explicit reference to "climate change," or "global warming" in a GM message results in different effects than each other, or an implicit climate reference. An online sample of U.S. participants (N = 1050) were randomly assigned to one of four conditions: "climate change" cue, "global warming" cue, implicit cue, or control (no message). Generally speaking, framing GM crops as a way to help ensure global food security proved to be an effective messaging strategy in increasing positive attitudes toward GM. In addition, the implicit cue condition led to liberals having more positive attitudes and behavioral intentions toward GM than the "climate change" cue condition, an effect mediated by message evaluations.}, }
@article {pmid27809393, year = {2017}, author = {Messmer, V and Pratchett, MS and Hoey, AS and Tobin, AJ and Coker, DJ and Cooke, SJ and Clark, TD}, title = {Global warming may disproportionately affect larger adults in a predatory coral reef fish.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {2230-2240}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13552}, pmid = {27809393}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Anthozoa ; *Coral Reefs ; *Fisheries ; *Global Warming ; }, abstract = {Global warming is expected to reduce body sizes of ectothermic animals. Although the underlying mechanisms of size reductions remain poorly understood, effects appear stronger at latitudinal extremes (poles and tropics) and in aquatic rather than terrestrial systems. To shed light on this phenomenon, we examined the size dependence of critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and aerobic metabolism in a commercially important tropical reef fish, the leopard coral grouper (Plectropomus leopardus) following acclimation to current-day (28.5 °C) vs. projected end-of-century (33 °C) summer temperatures for the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR). CTmax declined from 38.3 to 37.5 °C with increasing body mass in adult fish (0.45-2.82 kg), indicating that larger individuals are more thermally sensitive than smaller conspecifics. This may be explained by a restricted capacity for large fish to increase mass-specific maximum metabolic rate (MMR) at 33 °C compared with 28.5 °C. Indeed, temperature influenced the relationship between metabolism and body mass (0.02-2.38 kg), whereby the scaling exponent for MMR increased from 0.74 ± 0.02 at 28.5 °C to 0.79 ± 0.01 at 33 °C, and the corresponding exponents for standard metabolic rate (SMR) were 0.75 ± 0.04 and 0.80 ± 0.03. The increase in metabolic scaling exponents at higher temperatures suggests that energy budgets may be disproportionately impacted in larger fish and contribute to reduced maximum adult size. Such climate-induced reductions in body size would have important ramifications for fisheries productivity, but are also likely to have knock-on effects for trophodynamics and functioning of ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid27808169, year = {2016}, author = {Meersmans, J and Arrouays, D and Van Rompaey, AJ and Pagé, C and De Baets, S and Quine, TA}, title = {Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {35798}, pmid = {27808169}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.}, }
@article {pmid27808022, year = {2016}, author = {Fourt, D and Poirier, C}, title = {Healthcare and Climate Change: Do No Harm.}, journal = {Healthcare quarterly (Toronto, Ont.)}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {37-43}, doi = {10.12927/hcq.2016.24791}, pmid = {27808022}, issn = {1710-2774}, mesh = {Canada ; *Carbon Footprint/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Facility Design and Construction ; Health Facilities ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The increased frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change can cause casualties and put healthcare delivery at risk. Ironically, healthcare is a significant source of the very greenhouse gas emissions that lead to climate change. The Vancouver Island Health Authority case study shows the value of targets, energy management and innovation in new construction. Efforts have yielded great results to date with $2 million a year saved in utilities, and are nearing the target of reducing emissions by 33% below 2007 levels by 2020.}, }
@article {pmid27804094, year = {2017}, author = {Banerjee, K and Gatti, RC and Mitra, A}, title = {Climate change-induced salinity variation impacts on a stenoecious mangrove species in the Indian Sundarbans.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {46}, number = {4}, pages = {492-499}, pmid = {27804094}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Endangered Species ; India ; Malvaceae/*growth &amp; development ; *Salinity ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The alterations in the salinity profile are an indirect, but potentially sensitive, indicator for detecting changes in precipitation, evaporation, river run-off, glacier retreat, and ice melt. These changes have a high impact on the growth of coastal plant species, such as mangroves. Here, we present estimates of the variability of salinity and the biomass of a stenoecious mangrove species (Heritiera fomes, commonly referred to as Sundari) in the aquatic subsystem of the lower Gangetic delta based on a dataset from 2004 to 2015. We highlight the impact of salinity alteration on the change in aboveground biomass of this endangered species that, due to different salinity profile in the western and central sectors of the lower Gangetic plain, shows an increase only in the former sector, where the salinity is dropping and low growth in the latter, where the salinity is increasing.}, }
@article {pmid27802883, year = {2017}, author = {Song, G and Li, M and Fullana-I-Palmer, P and Williamson, D and Wang, Y}, title = {Dietary changes to mitigate climate change and benefit public health in China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {577}, number = {}, pages = {289-298}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.184}, pmid = {27802883}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Carbon Footprint ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Diet ; Female ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Male ; *Public Health ; Red Meat ; }, abstract = {Dietary change presents an opportunity to meet the dual challenges of non-communicable diseases and the effects of climate change in China. Based on a food survey and reviewed data sets, we linked nutrient composition and carbon footprint data by aggregating 1950 types of foods into 28 groups. Nine dietary scenarios for both men and women were modeled based on the current diet and latest National Program for Food and Nutrition. Linear uncertainty optimization was used to produce diets meeting the Chinese Dietary Reference Intakes for adults aged 18-50years while minimizing carbon footprints. The theoretical optimal diet reduced daily footprints by 46%, but this diet was unrealistic due to limited food diversity. Constrained by acceptability, the optimal diet reduced the daily carbon footprints by 7-28%, from 3495 to 2517-3252g CO2e, for men and by 5-26%, from 3075 to 2280-2917g CO2e, for women. Dietary changes for adults are capable of benefiting China in terms of the considerable footprint reduction of 53-222Mt.CO2eyear[-1], when magnified based on the Chinese population, which is the largest worldwide. Seven of eight scenarios showed that reductions in meat consumption resulted in greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, dramatic reductions in meat consumption may produce smaller reductions in emissions, as the consumption of other ingredients increases to compensate for the nutrients in meat. A trade-off between poultry and other meats (beef, pork, and lamb) is usually observed, and rice, which is a popular food in China, was the largest contributor to carbon footprint reductions. Our findings suggest that changing diets for climate change mitigation and human health is possible in China, though the per capital mitigation potential is slight lower than that in developed economies of France, Spain, Sweden, and New Zealand.}, }
@article {pmid27743309, year = {2016}, author = {Garnier, J and Lewis, MA}, title = {Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences.}, journal = {Bulletin of mathematical biology}, volume = {78}, number = {11}, pages = {2165-2185}, doi = {10.1007/s11538-016-0213-x}, pmid = {27743309}, issn = {1522-9602}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; *Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Mathematical Concepts ; Models, Genetic ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.}, }
@article {pmid27801802, year = {2016}, author = {Ahmed, T and Scholz, M and Al-Faraj, F and Niaz, W}, title = {Water-Related Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Subsequently on Public Health: A Review for Generalists with Particular Reference to Pakistan.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {27801802}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Agriculture/*trends ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Developing Countries ; Environmental Pollution ; Floods ; Humans ; Pakistan ; Population Density ; Public Health/*trends ; Water Pollution/analysis/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Water Quality ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Water-related impacts due to change in climatic conditions ranging from water scarcity to intense floods and storms are increasing in developing countries like Pakistan. Water quality and waterborne diseases like hepatitis, cholera, typhoid, malaria and dengue fever are increasing due to chaotic urbanization, industrialization, poor hygienic conditions, and inappropriate water management. The morbidity rate is high due to lack of health care facilities, especially in developing countries. Organizations linked to the Government of Pakistan (e.g., Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Climate Change, Planning and Development, Ministry of Forest, Irrigation and Public Health, Pakistan Meteorological Department, National Disaster Management, Pakistan Agricultural Research Centre, Pakistan Council for Research in Water Resources, and Global Change Impact Study Centre), United Nation organizations, provincial government departments, non-governmental organizations (e.g., Global Facility and Disaster Reduction), research centers linked to universities, and international organizations (International Institute for Sustainable Development, Food and Agriculture, Global Climate Fund and World Bank) are trying to reduce the water-related impacts of climate change, but due to lack of public awareness and health care infrastructure, the death rate is steadily increasing. This paper critically reviews the scientific studies and reports both at national and at international level benefiting generalists concerned with environmental and public health challenges. The article underlines the urgent need for water conservation, risk management, and the development of mitigation measures to cope with the water-related impacts of climate change on agriculture and subsequently on public health. Novel solutions and bioremediation methods have been presented to control environmental pollution and to promote awareness among the scientific community. The focus is on diverse strategies to handle the forthcoming challenges associated with water resources management.}, }
@article {pmid27801654, year = {2016}, author = {Averett, N}, title = {Pacific Island Countries and Climate Change: Examining Associated Human Health Vulnerabilities.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {124}, number = {11}, pages = {A208}, pmid = {27801654}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; Environment ; Humans ; Pacific Islands ; }, }
@article {pmid27799126, year = {2016}, author = {The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, }, title = {Antimicrobial resistance-what can we learn from climate change?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Respiratory medicine}, volume = {4}, number = {11}, pages = {845}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-2600(16)30332-0}, pmid = {27799126}, issn = {2213-2619}, mesh = {Anti-Bacterial Agents/*administration &amp; dosage/pharmacology ; *Climate Change ; *Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; }, }
@article {pmid27795595, year = {2016}, author = {Saetnan, ER and Kipling, RP}, title = {Evaluating a European knowledge hub on climate change in agriculture: Are we building a better connected community?.}, journal = {Scientometrics}, volume = {109}, number = {2}, pages = {1057-1074}, pmid = {27795595}, issn = {0138-9130}, abstract = {In order to maintain food security and sustainability of production under climate change, interdisciplinary and international collaboration in research is essential. In the EU, knowledge hubs are important funding instruments for the development of an interconnected European Research Area. Here, network analysis was used to assess whether the pilot knowledge hub MACSUR has affected interdisciplinary collaboration, using co-authorship of peer reviewed articles as a measure of collaboration. The broad community of all authors identified as active in the field of agriculture and climate change was increasingly well connected over the period studied. Between knowledge hub members, changes in network parameters suggest an increase in collaborative interaction beyond that expected due to network growth, and greater than that found in the broader community. Given that interdisciplinary networks often take several years to have an impact on research outputs, these changes within the relatively new MACSUR community provide evidence that the knowledge hub structure has been effective in stimulating collaboration. However, analysis showed that knowledge hub partners were initially well-connected, suggesting that the initiative may have gathered together researchers with particular resources or inclinations towards collaborative working. Long term, consistent funding and ongoing reflection to improve networking structures may be necessary to sustain the early positive signs from MACSUR, to extend its success to a wider community of researchers, or to repeat it in less connected fields of science. Tackling complex challenges such as climate change will require research structures that can effectively support and utilise the diversity of talents beyond the already well-connected core of scientists at major research institutes. But network research shows that this core, well-connected group are vital brokers in achieving wider integration.}, }
@article {pmid27658682, year = {2016}, author = {Takahashi, B and Burnham, M and Terracina-Hartman, C and Sopchak, AR and Selfa, T}, title = {Climate Change Perceptions of NY State Farmers: The Role of Risk Perceptions and Adaptive Capacity.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {58}, number = {6}, pages = {946-957}, pmid = {27658682}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Agriculture/*methods/*organization &amp; administration ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Developed Countries ; *Farmers/psychology ; Farms/organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; New York ; *Perception ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to severely impact agricultural practices in many important food-producing regions, including the Northeast United States. Changing climate conditions, such as increases in the amount of rainfall, will require farmers to adapt. Yet, little is known with regard to farmers' perceptions and understandings about climate change, especially in the industrialized country context. This paper aims at overcoming this research limitation, as well as determining the existing contextual, cognitive, and psychological barriers that can prevent adoption of sustainable practices of farmers in New York State. The study is framed within the adaptive capacity and risk perception literature, and is based on a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with farmers in 21 farms in two counties in Central New York. The results reveal diverging views about the long-term consequences of climate change. Results also reveal that past experience remains as the most important source of information that influences beliefs and perceptions about climate change, confirming previous research.}, }
@article {pmid27791053, year = {2016}, author = {Abatzoglou, JT and Williams, AP}, title = {Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {42}, pages = {11770-11775}, pmid = {27791053}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; United States ; *Wildfires ; }, abstract = {Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.}, }
@article {pmid27791047, year = {2016}, author = {Harvey, BJ}, title = {Human-caused climate change is now a key driver of forest fire activity in the western United States.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {42}, pages = {11649-11650}, pmid = {27791047}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; United States ; *Wildfires ; }, }
@article {pmid27790788, year = {2017}, author = {Davenport, JM and Hossack, BR and Fishback, L}, title = {Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {2262-2271}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13543}, pmid = {27790788}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Anura ; Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1-4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment that are expected in this ecosystem will reduce mean fitness of populations across the landscape.}, }
@article {pmid27789841, year = {2016}, author = {Guiot, J and Cramer, W}, title = {Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {354}, number = {6311}, pages = {465-468}, doi = {10.1126/science.aah5015}, pmid = {27789841}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Biodiversity ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Mediterranean Region ; Paris ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5°C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2°C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies.}, }
@article {pmid27789833, year = {2016}, author = {Fang, Q}, title = {Adapting Chinese cities to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {354}, number = {6311}, pages = {425-426}, doi = {10.1126/science.aak9826}, pmid = {27789833}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {China ; *Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; *Disaster Planning ; Humans ; Urbanization ; Wetlands ; }, }
@article {pmid27745769, year = {2016}, author = {Fossey, M and Rousseau, AN}, title = {Can isolated and riparian wetlands mitigate the impact of climate change on watershed hydrology? A case study approach.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {184}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {327-339}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.09.043}, pmid = {27745769}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Hydrology/*methods ; Models, Theoretical ; Quebec ; *Rivers ; Seasons ; Water ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The effects of wetlands on stream flows are well established, namely mitigating flow regimes through water storage and slow water release. However, their effectiveness in reducing flood peaks and sustaining low flows is mainly driven by climate conditions and wetland type with respect to their connectivity to the hydrographic network (i.e. isolated or riparian wetlands). While some studies have demonstrated these hydrological functions/services, few of them have focused on the benefits to the hydrological regimes and their evolution under climate change (CC) and, thus, some gaps persist. The objective of this study was to further advance our knowledge with that respect. The PHYSITEL/HYDROTEL modelling platform was used to assess current and future states of watershed hydrology of the Becancour and Yamaska watersheds, Quebec, Canada. Simulation results showed that CC will induce similar changes on mean seasonal flows, namely larger and earlier spring flows leading to decreases in summer and fall flows. These expected changes will have different effects on 20-year and 100-year peak flows with respect to the considered watershed. Nevertheless, conservation of current wetland states should: (i) for the Becancour watershed, mitigate the potential increase in 2-year, 20-year and 100-year peak flows; and (ii) for the Yamaska watershed, accentuate the potential decrease in the aforementioned indicators. However, any loss of existing wetlands would be detrimental for 7-day 2-year and 10-year as well as 30-day 5-year low flows.}, }
@article {pmid27787948, year = {2016}, author = {Gilliam, FS}, title = {Forest ecosystems of temperate climatic regions: from ancient use to climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {212}, number = {4}, pages = {871-887}, doi = {10.1111/nph.14255}, pmid = {27787948}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Models, Theoretical ; Phylogeography ; Soil ; }, abstract = {871 I. 871 II. 874 III. 875 IV. 878 V. 882 884 References 884 SUMMARY: Humans have long utilized resources from all forest biomes, but the most indelible anthropogenic signature has been the expanse of human populations in temperate forests. The purpose of this review is to bring into focus the diverse forests of the temperate region of the biosphere, including those of hardwood, conifer and mixed dominance, with a particular emphasis on crucial challenges for the future of these forested areas. Implicit in the term 'temperate' is that the predominant climate of these forest regions has distinct cyclic, seasonal changes involving periods of growth and dormancy. The specific temporal patterns of seasonal change, however, display an impressive variability among temperate forest regions. In addition to the more apparent current anthropogenic disturbances of temperate forests, such as forest management and conversion to agriculture, human alteration of temperate forests is actually an ancient phenomenon, going as far back as 7000 yr before present (bp). As deep-seated as these past legacies are for temperate forests, all current and future perturbations, including timber harvesting, excess nitrogen deposition, altered species' phenologies, and increasing frequency of drought and fire, must be viewed through the lens of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27785716, year = {2017}, author = {Park, CB and Kim, YJ and Soyano, K}, title = {Effects of increasing temperature due to aquatic climate change on the self-fertility and the sexual development of the hermaphrodite fish, Kryptolebias marmoratus.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {1484-1494}, pmid = {27785716}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Fertility ; Gonads/growth &amp; development ; *Hot Temperature ; Killifishes/*physiology ; Male ; Reproduction ; Self-Fertilization ; Sexual Development ; Sexual Maturation ; Vitellogenins/blood ; }, abstract = {In order to assess the effects of increasing temperature on the reproductive performance of fish, different thermal conditions (i.e., 25.0, 26.5, 27.5, 28.5, 30.0 °C) were used in this study and the self-fertilizing hermaphrodite fish, Kryptolebias marmoratus, was exposed to these different thermal conditions. During an exposure period of 30 to 150 days, the gonadosomatic index (GSI), gonadal development, the levels of plasma 17β-estradial (E2) and testosterone (T), hepatic vitellogenin (VTG) mRNA abundance, and the number of self-fertilized eggs were analyzed. This study confirmed that a high water temperature above 27.5 °C led to the suppression of self-fertility of hermaphroditic fish from 30 days after exposure. The oocyte quality and maturation would be affected by the disruption of hepatic VTG synthesis at a high water temperature of 30 °C, which resulted in the reduced the self-fertility in K. marmoratus. Consequently, this study suggests that elevated water temperature due to aquatic climate change prior to sexual maturation and the onset of spawning can lead to the reproductive dysfunction of hermaphroditic K. marmoratus.}, }
@article {pmid27784716, year = {2016}, author = {Shin, GY and Manuel, RJ}, title = {Healthcare professionals must "think globally, act locally" on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {355}, number = {}, pages = {i5686}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.i5686}, pmid = {27784716}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid27661077, year = {2016}, author = {Koyama, T and Ito, H and Fujisawa, T and Ikeda, H and Kakishima, S and Cooley, JR and Simon, C and Yoshimura, J and Sota, T}, title = {Genomic divergence and lack of introgressive hybridization between two 13-year periodical cicadas support life cycle switching in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {21}, pages = {5543-5556}, doi = {10.1111/mec.13858}, pmid = {27661077}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Genomics ; Hemiptera/classification/*genetics ; *Hybridization, Genetic ; *Life Cycle Stages ; Phenotype ; Phylogeny ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; }, abstract = {Life history evolution spurred by post-Pleistocene climatic change is hypothesized to be responsible for the present diversity in periodical cicadas (Magicicada), but the mechanism of life cycle change has been controversial. To understand the divergence process of 13-year and 17-year cicada life cycles, we studied genetic relationships between two synchronously emerging, parapatric 13-year periodical cicada species in the Decim group, Magicicada tredecim and M. neotredecim. The latter was hypothesized to be of hybrid origin or to have switched from a 17-year cycle via developmental plasticity. Phylogenetic analysis using restriction-site-associated DNA sequences for all Decim species and broods revealed that the 13-year M. tredecim lineage is genomically distinct from 17-year Magicicada septendecim but that 13-year M. neotredecim is not. We detected no significant introgression between M. tredecim and M. neotredecim/M. septendecim thus refuting the hypothesis that M. neotredecim are products of hybridization between M. tredecim and M. septendecim. Further, we found that introgressive hybridization is very rare or absent in the contact zone between the two 13-year species evidenced by segregation patterns in single nucleotide polymorphisms, mitochondrial lineage identity and head width and abdominal sternite colour phenotypes. Our study demonstrates that the two 13-year Decim species are of independent origin and nearly completely reproductively isolated. Combining our data with increasing observations of occasional life cycle change in part of a cohort (e.g. 4-year acceleration of emergence in 17-year species), we suggest a pivotal role for developmental plasticity in Magicicada life cycle evolution.}, }
@article {pmid27781365, year = {2016}, author = {Burbrink, FT and Chan, YL and Myers, EA and Ruane, S and Smith, BT and Hickerson, MJ}, title = {Asynchronous demographic responses to Pleistocene climate change in Eastern Nearctic vertebrates.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {1457-1467}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12695}, pmid = {27781365}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/*genetics ; Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; Vertebrates/*genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Pleistocene climatic cycles altered species distributions in the Eastern Nearctic of North America, yet the degree of congruent demographic response to the Pleistocene among codistributed taxa remains unknown. We use a hierarchical approximate Bayesian computational approach to test if population sizes across lineages of snakes, lizards, turtles, mammals, birds, salamanders and frogs in this region expanded synchronously to Late Pleistocene climate changes. Expansion occurred in 75% of 74 lineages, and of these, population size trajectories across the community were partially synchronous, with coexpansion found in at least 50% of lineages in each taxonomic group. For those taxa expanding outside of these synchronous pulses, factors related to when they entered the community, ecological thresholds or biotic interactions likely condition their timing of response to Pleistocene climate change. Unified timing of population size change across communities in response to Pleistocene climate cycles is likely rare in North America.}, }
@article {pmid27781160, year = {2016}, author = {Guo, Y and Wei, H and Lu, C and Gao, B and Gu, W}, title = {Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {e2554}, pmid = {27781160}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.}, }
@article {pmid27778064, year = {2017}, author = {Mulenga, BP and Wineman, A and Sitko, NJ}, title = {Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {59}, number = {2}, pages = {291-306}, pmid = {27778064}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Attitude ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; *Farmers/psychology ; Perception ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Zambia ; }, abstract = {A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.}, }
@article {pmid27777720, year = {2016}, author = {Dawe, KL and Boutin, S}, title = {Climate change is the primary driver of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) range expansion at the northern extent of its range; land use is secondary.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {18}, pages = {6435-6451}, pmid = {27777720}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Quantifying the relative influence of multiple mechanisms driving recent range expansion of non-native species is essential for predicting future changes and for informing adaptation and management plans to protect native species. White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) have been expanding their range into the North American boreal forest over the last half of the 20th century. This has already altered predator-prey dynamics in Alberta, Canada, where the distribution likely reaches the northern extent of its continuous range. Although current white-tailed deer distribution is explained by both climate and human land use, the influence each factor had on the observed range expansion would depend on the spatial and temporal pattern of these changes. Our objective was to quantify the relative importance of land use and climate change as drivers of white-tailed deer range expansion and to predict decadal changes in white-tailed deer distribution in northern Alberta for the first half of the 21st century. An existing species distribution model was used to predict past decadal distributions of white-tailed deer which were validated using independent data. The effects of climate and land use change were isolated by comparing predictions under theoretical "no-change between decades" scenarios, for each factor, to predictions under observed climate and land use change. Climate changes led to more than 88%, by area, of the increases in probability of white-tailed deer presence across all decades. The distribution is predicted to extend 100 km further north across the northeastern Alberta boreal forest as climate continues to change over the first half of the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid27776181, year = {2016}, author = {Torres-Díaz, C and Gallardo-Cerda, J and Lavin, P and Oses, R and Carrasco-Urra, F and Atala, C and Acuña-Rodríguez, IS and Convey, P and Molina-Montenegro, MA}, title = {Biological Interactions and Simulated Climate Change Modulates the Ecophysiological Performance of Colobanthus quitensis in the Antarctic Ecosystem.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {e0164844}, pmid = {27776181}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Biomass ; Caryophyllaceae/chemistry/microbiology/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Endophytes/*physiology ; Phytochemicals/*analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Most climate and environmental change models predict significant increases in temperature and precipitation by the end of the 21st Century, for which the current functional output of certain symbioses may also be altered. In this context we address the following questions: 1) How the expected changes in abiotic factors (temperature, and water) differentially affect the ecophysiological performance of the plant Colobanthus quitensis? and 2) Will this environmental change indirectly affect C. quitensis photochemical performance and biomass accumulation by modifying its association with fungal endophytes? Plants of C. quitensis from King George Island in the South Shetland archipelago (62°09' S), and Lagotellerie Island in the Antarctic Peninsula (65°53' S) were put under simulated abiotic conditions in growth chambers following predictive models of global climate change (GCC). The indirect effect of GCC on the interaction between C. quitensis and fungal endophytes was assessed in a field experiment carried out in the Antarctica, in which we eliminated endophytes under contemporary conditions and applied experimental watering to simulate increased precipitation input. We measured four proxies of plant performance. First, we found that warming (+W) significantly increased plant performance, however its effect tended to be less than watering (+W) and combined warming and watering (+T°+W). Second, the presence of fungal endophytes improved plant performance, and its effect was significantly decreased under experimental watering. Our results indicate that both biotic and abiotic factors affect ecophysiological performance, and the directions of these influences will change with climate change. Our findings provide valuable information that will help to predict future population spread and evolution through using ecological niche models under different climatic scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid27774575, year = {2017}, author = {Suwannatrai, A and Pratumchart, K and Suwannatrai, K and Thinkhamrop, K and Chaiyos, J and Kim, CS and Suwanweerakamtorn, R and Boonmars, T and Wongsaroj, T and Sripa, B}, title = {Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {116}, number = {1}, pages = {243-250}, pmid = {27774575}, issn = {1432-1955}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Opisthorchis/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Temperature ; Thailand ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is now regarded as imposing a significant threat of enhancing transmission of parasitic diseases. Maximum entropy species distribution modeling (MaxEnt) was used to explore how projected climate change could affect the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand. A range of climate variables was used: the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) climate change model and also the IPCC scenarios A2a for 2050 and 2070. Occurrence data from surveys conducted in 2009 and 2014 were obtained from the Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. The MaxEnt model performed better than random for O. viverrini with training AUC values greater than 0.8 under current and future climatic conditions. The current distribution of O. viverrini is significantly affected by precipitation and minimum temperature. According to current conditions, parts of Thailand climatically suitable for O. viverrini are mostly in the northeast and north, but the parasite is largely absent from southern Thailand. Under future climate change scenarios, the distribution of O. viverrini in 2050 should be significantly affected by precipitation, maximum temperature, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter, whereas in 2070, significant factors are likely to be precipitation during the coldest quarter, maximum, and minimum temperatures. Maps of predicted future distribution revealed a drastic decrease in presence of O. viverrini in the northeast region. The information gained from this study should be a useful reference for implementing long-term prevention and control strategies for O. viverrini in Thailand.}, }
@article {pmid27767177, year = {2016}, author = {Woolf, D and Lehmann, J and Lee, DR}, title = {Optimal bioenergy power generation for climate change mitigation with or without carbon sequestration.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {13160}, pmid = {27767177}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Restricting global warming below 2 °C to avoid catastrophic climate change will require atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Current integrated assessment models (IAMs) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios assume that CDR within the energy sector would be delivered using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Although bioenergy-biochar systems (BEBCS) can also deliver CDR, they are not included in any IPCC scenario. Here we show that despite BECCS offering twice the carbon sequestration and bioenergy per unit biomass, BEBCS may allow earlier deployment of CDR at lower carbon prices when long-term improvements in soil fertility offset biochar production costs. At carbon prices above $1,000 Mg[-1] C, BECCS is most frequently (P>0.45, calculated as the fraction of Monte Carlo simulations in which BECCS is the most cost effective) the most economic biomass technology for climate-change mitigation. At carbon prices below $1,000 Mg[-1] C, BEBCS is the most cost-effective technology only where biochar significantly improves agricultural yields, with pure bioenergy systems being otherwise preferred.}, }
@article {pmid27765779, year = {2016}, author = {Kelly, FJ}, title = {Twin problems of climate change and air pollution.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {355}, number = {}, pages = {i5620}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.i5620}, pmid = {27765779}, issn = {1756-1833}, support = {G0801056/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; MR/L01341X/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Health Status ; Humans ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid27763409, year = {2016}, author = {Coen, DR}, title = {Big is a Thing of the Past: Climate Change and Methodology in the History of Ideas.}, journal = {Journal of the history of ideas}, volume = {77}, number = {2}, pages = {305-321}, doi = {10.1353/jhi.2016.0019}, pmid = {27763409}, issn = {0022-5037}, abstract = {The climate crisis has raised questions about the proper scale of historical analysis in the Anthropocene. After explaining how this methodological crisis differs from an earlier stand-off between proponents of microhistory and total history, this paper suggests a role for intellectual history in moving us beyond the current debate. What is needed is a history of "scaling"; that is, we need to historicize the process of mediating between different frameworks of measurement, even those that might at first appear incommensurable. Historical examples are explored in which such a process of commensuration has allowed for a pluralism of perceptions of space and time.}, }
@article {pmid27762354, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {Climate change: Wildfires burn more US forest.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {538}, number = {7625}, pages = {292-293}, doi = {10.1038/538292d}, pmid = {27762354}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid27760207, year = {2016}, author = {Dickinson, JL and McLeod, P and Bloomfield, R and Allred, S}, title = {Which Moral Foundations Predict Willingness to Make Lifestyle Changes to Avert Climate Change in the USA?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {e0163852}, pmid = {27760207}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Climate Change ; Empathy ; Female ; Humans ; *Life Style ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Morals ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Jonathan Haidt's Moral Foundations Theory identifies five moral axes that can influence human motivation to take action on vital problems like climate change. The theory focuses on five moral foundations, including compassion, fairness, purity, authority, and ingroup loyalty; these have been found to differ between liberals and conservatives as well as Democrats and Republicans. Here we show, based on the Cornell National Social Survey (USA), that valuations of compassion and fairness were strong, positive predictors of willingness to act on climate change, whereas purity had a non-significant tendency in the positive direction (p = 0.07). Ingroup loyalty and authority were not supported as important predictor variables using model selection ([Formula: see text]). Compassion and fairness were more highly valued by liberals, whereas purity, authority, and in-group loyalty were more highly valued by conservatives. As in previous studies, participants who were younger, more liberal, and reported greater belief in climate change, also showed increased willingness to act on climate change. Our research supports the potential importance of moral foundations as drivers of intentions with respect to climate change action, and suggests that compassion, fairness, and to a lesser extent, purity, are potential moral pathways for personal action on climate change in the USA.}, }
@article {pmid27759112, year = {2016}, author = {Wu, J and Wurst, S and Zhang, X}, title = {Plant functional trait diversity regulates the nonlinear response of productivity to regional climate change in Tibetan alpine grasslands.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {35649}, pmid = {27759112}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Biological Variation, Population ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Grassland ; *Plant Development ; Rain ; Soil/chemistry ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {The biodiversity-productivity relationship is still under debate for alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau. We know little about direct and indirect effects of biotic and abiotic drivers on this relationship, especially in regard to plant functional trait diversity. Here, we examine how aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation use efficiency (PUE) respond to climate, soil and community structure across alpine grasslands on the Northern Tibetan Plateau. We found that both ANPP and PUE showed nonlinear patterns along water availability and site altitude variation, which together accounted for 80.3% and 68.8% of variation in ANPP and PUE, respectively, by optimal generalized additive models. Functional trait divergence (FTD) and community weighted mean (CWM) of plant functional traits were as important as plant species diversity (PSD) for explaining the nonlinear productivity-climate relationship. These findings were confirmed by results from principal component analyses and structural equation models. We also found that FTD was negatively correlated with PSD across different alpine grasslands. Our results implicate: first, the combinatorial influences of temperature and precipitation gradients are important for predicting alpine grassland dynamics; second, the convergence and divergence of plant functional traits may have the potential to elucidate the effect of plant diversity on ecosystem functionality.}, }
@article {pmid27624169, year = {2016}, author = {Sen, S and Gode, A and Ramanujam, S and Ravikanth, G and Aravind, NA}, title = {Modeling the impact of climate change on wild Piper nigrum (Black Pepper) in Western Ghats, India using ecological niche models.}, journal = {Journal of plant research}, volume = {129}, number = {6}, pages = {1033-1040}, pmid = {27624169}, issn = {1618-0860}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; India ; Models, Theoretical ; Piper nigrum/*physiology ; *Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {The center of diversity of Piper nigrum L. (Black Pepper), one of the highly valued spice crops is reported to be from India. Black pepper is naturally distributed in India in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot and is the only known existing source of its wild germplasm in the world. We used ecological niche models to predict the potential distribution of wild P. nigrum in the present and two future climate change scenarios viz (A1B) and (A2A) for the year 2080. Three topographic and nine uncorrelated bioclim variables were used to develop the niche models. The environmental variables influencing the distribution of wild P. nigrum across different climate change scenarios were identified. We also assessed the direction and magnitude of the niche centroid shift and the change in niche breadth to estimate the impact of projected climate change on the distribution of P. nigrum. The study shows a niche centroid shift in the future climate scenarios. Both the projected future climate scenarios predicted a reduction in the habitat of P. nigrum in Southern Western Ghats, which harbors many wild accessions of P. nigrum. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on P. nigrum and provide useful information for designing sound germplasm conservation strategies for P. nigrum.}, }
@article {pmid27755699, year = {2016}, author = {Weir, SM and Scott, DE and Salice, CJ and Lance, SL}, title = {Integrating copper toxicity and climate change to understand extinction risk to two species of pond-breeding anurans.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, pages = {1721-1732}, doi = {10.1890/15-1082}, pmid = {27755699}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; Anura/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Copper/*toxicity ; *Extinction, Biological ; Larva/drug effects ; Models, Biological ; Reproduction/drug effects ; Risk Factors ; Stochastic Processes ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {Chemical contamination is often suggested as an important contributing factor to amphibian population declines, but direct links are rarely reported. Population modeling provides a quantitative method to integrate toxicity data with demographic data to understand the long-term effects of contaminants on population persistence. In this study we use laboratory-derived embryo and larval toxicity data for two anuran species to investigate the potential for toxicity to contribute to population declines. We use the southern toad (Anaxyrus terrestris) and the southern leopard frog (Lithobates sphenocephalus) as model species to investigate copper (Cu) toxicity. We use matrix models to project populations through time and quantify extinction risk (the probability of quasi-extinction in 35 yr). Life-history parameters for toads and frogs were obtained from previously published literature or unpublished data from a long-term (>35 yr) data set. In addition to Cu toxicity, we investigate the role of climate change on amphibian populations by including the probability of early pond drying that results in catastrophic reproductive failure (CRF, i.e., complete mortality of all larval individuals). Our models indicate that CRF is an important parameter for both species as both were unable to persist when CRF probability was >50% for toads or 40% for frogs. Copper toxicity alone did not result in significant effects on extinction risk unless toxicity was very high (>50% reduction in survival parameters). For toads, Cu toxicity and high probability of CRF both resulted in high extinction risk but no synergistic (or greater than additive) effects between the two stressors occurred. For leopard frogs, in the absence of CRF survival was high even under Cu toxicity, but with CRF Cu toxicity increased extinction risk. Our analyses highlight the importance of considering multiple stressors as well as species differences in response to those stressors. Our models were consistently most sensitive to juvenile and adult survival, further suggesting the importance of terrestrial stages to population persistence. Future models will incorporate multiple wetlands with different combinations of stressors to understand if our results for a single wetland result in a population sink within the landscape.}, }
@article {pmid27755694, year = {2016}, author = {Sofaer, HR and Skagen, SK and Barsugli, JJ and Rashford, BS and Reese, GC and Hoeting, JA and Wood, AW and Noon, BR}, title = {Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, pages = {1677-1692}, doi = {10.1890/15-0750.1}, pmid = {27755694}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/trends ; Models, Biological ; Time Factors ; Weather ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27753179, year = {2017}, author = {Stortini, CH and Chabot, D and Shackell, NL}, title = {Marine species in ambient low-oxygen regions subject to double jeopardy impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {2284-2296}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13534}, pmid = {27753179}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Oxygen ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {We have learned much about the impacts of warming on the productivity and distribution of marine organisms, but less about the impact of warming combined with other environmental stressors, including oxygen depletion. Also, the combined impact of multiple environmental stressors requires evaluation at the scales most relevant to resource managers. We use the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, characterized by a large permanently hypoxic zone, as a case study. Species distribution models were used to predict the impact of multiple scenarios of warming and oxygen depletion on the local density of three commercially and ecologically important species. Substantial changes are projected within 20-40 years. A eurythermal depleted species already limited to shallow, oxygen-rich refuge habitat (Atlantic cod) may be relatively uninfluenced by oxygen depletion but increase in density within refuge areas with warming. A more stenothermal, deep-dwelling species (Greenland halibut) is projected to lose ~55% of its high-density areas under the combined impacts of warming and oxygen depletion. Another deep-dwelling, more eurythermal species (Northern shrimp) would lose ~4% of its high-density areas due to oxygen depletion alone, but these impacts may be buffered by warming, which may increase density by 8% in less hypoxic areas, but decrease density by ~20% in the warmest parts of the region. Due to local climate variability and extreme events, and that our models cannot project changes in species sensitivity to hypoxia with warming, our results should be considered conservative. We present an approach to effectively evaluate the individual and cumulative impacts of multiple environmental stressors on a species-by-species basis at the scales most relevant to managers. Our study may provide a basis for work in other low-oxygen regions and should contribute to a growing literature base in climate science, which will continue to be of support for resource managers as climate change accelerates.}, }
@article {pmid27752964, year = {2017}, author = {Wong-Parodi, G and Bruine de Bruin, W}, title = {Informing Public Perceptions About Climate Change: A 'Mental Models' Approach.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {1369-1386}, pmid = {27752964}, issn = {1471-5546}, support = {SES-0949710//National Science Foundation/ ; SES-1463492//National Science Foundation/ ; }, mesh = {*Access to Information ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; Decision Making ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Judgment ; Models, Psychological ; *Public Opinion ; Public Policy ; Research ; *Research Personnel ; }, abstract = {As the specter of climate change looms on the horizon, people will face complex decisions about whether to support climate change policies and how to cope with climate change impacts on their lives. Without some grasp of the relevant science, they may find it hard to make informed decisions. Climate experts therefore face the ethical need to effectively communicate to non-expert audiences. Unfortunately, climate experts may inadvertently violate the maxims of effective communication, which require sharing communications that are truthful, brief, relevant, clear, and tested for effectiveness. Here, we discuss the 'mental models' approach towards developing communications, which aims to help experts to meet the maxims of effective communications, and to better inform the judgments and decisions of non-expert audiences.}, }
@article {pmid27752459, year = {2016}, author = {Feleke, FB and Berhe, M and Gebru, G and Hoag, D}, title = {Determinants of adaptation choices to climate change by sheep and goat farmers in Northern Ethiopia: the case of Southern and Central Tigray, Ethiopia.}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {1692}, pmid = {27752459}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {The livestock sector serves as a foremost source of revenue for rural people, particularly in many developing countries. Among the livestock species, sheep and goats are the main source of livelihood for rural people in Ethiopia; they can quickly multiply, resilient and are easily convertible to cash to meet financial needs of the rural producers. The multiple contributions of sheep and goat and other livestock to rural farmers are however being challenged by climate change and variability. Farmers are responding to the impacts of climate change by adopting different mechanisms, where choices are largely dependent on many factors. This study, therefore, aims to analyze the determinants of choices of adaptation practices to climate change that causes scarcity of feed, heat stress, shortage of water and pasture on sheep and goat production. The study used 318 sample households drawn from potential livestock producing districts representing 3 agro-ecological settings. Data was analyzed using simple descriptive statistical tools, a multivariate probit model and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Most of the respondents (98.6 %) noted that climate is changing. Respondents' perception is that climate change is expressed through increased temperature (88 %) and decline in rainfall (73 %) over the last 10 years. The most commonly used adaptation strategy was marketing during forage shock (96.5 %), followed by home feeding (89.6 %). The estimation from the multivariate probit model showed that access to information, farming experience, number of households in one village, distance to main market, income of household, and agro-ecological settings influenced farmers' adaptation choices to climate change. Furthermore, OLS revealed that the adaptation strategies had positive influence on the household income.}, }
@article {pmid27676468, year = {2016}, author = {Miotti, M and Supran, GJ and Kim, EJ and Trancik, JE}, title = {Personal Vehicles Evaluated against Climate Change Mitigation Targets.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {50}, number = {20}, pages = {10795-10804}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6b00177}, pmid = {27676468}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Carbon ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Motor Vehicles ; Transportation ; *Vehicle Emissions ; }, abstract = {Meeting global climate change mitigation goals will likely require that transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions begin to decline within the next two decades and then continue to fall. A variety of vehicle technologies and fuels are commercially available to consumers today that can reduce the emissions of the transportation sector. Yet what are the best options, and do any suffice to meet climate policy targets? Here, we examine the costs and carbon intensities of 125 light-duty vehicle models on the U.S. market today and evaluate these models against U.S. emission-reduction targets for 2030, 2040, and 2050 that are compatible with the goal of limiting mean global temperature rise to 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Our results show that consumers are not required to pay more for a low-carbon-emitting vehicle. Across the diverse set of vehicle models and powertrain technologies examined, a clean vehicle is usually a low-cost vehicle. Although the average carbon intensity of vehicles sold in 2014 exceeds the climate target for 2030 by more than 50%, we find that most hybrid and battery electric vehicles available today meet this target. By 2050, only electric vehicles supplied with almost completely carbon-free electric power are expected to meet climate-policy targets.}, }
@article {pmid27750128, year = {2016}, author = {Brudler, S and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K and Hauschild, MZ and Rygaard, M}, title = {Life cycle assessment of stormwater management in the context of climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {106}, number = {}, pages = {394-404}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2016.10.024}, pmid = {27750128}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Floods ; *Rain ; }, abstract = {Expected increases in pluvial flooding, due to climatic changes, require large investments in the retrofitting of cities to keep damage at an acceptable level. Many cities have investigated the possibility of implementing stormwater management (SWM) systems which are multi-functional and consist of different elements interacting to achieve desired safety levels. Typically, an economic assessment is carried out in the planning phase, while environmental sustainability is given little or no attention. In this paper, life cycle assessment is used to quantify environmental impacts of climate change adaptation strategies. The approach is tested using a climate change adaptation strategy for a catchment in Copenhagen, Denmark. A stormwater management system, using green infrastructure and local retention measures in combination with planned routing of stormwater on the surfaces to manage runoff, is compared to a traditional, sub-surface approach. Flood safety levels based on the Three Points Approach are defined as the functional unit to ensure comparability between systems. The adaptation plan has significantly lower impacts (3-18 person equivalents/year) than the traditional alternative (14-103 person equivalents/year) in all analysed impact categories. The main impacts are caused by managing rain events with return periods between 0.2 and 10 years. The impacts of handling smaller events with a return period of up to 0.2 years and extreme events with a return period of up to 100 years are lower in both alternatives. The uncertainty analysis shows the advantages of conducting an environmental assessment in the early stages of the planning process, when the design can still be optimised, but it also highlights the importance of detailed and site-specific data.}, }
@article {pmid27749908, year = {2016}, author = {Tolentino, PL and Poortinga, A and Kanamaru, H and Keesstra, S and Maroulis, J and David, CP and Ritsema, CJ}, title = {Projected Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Philippines.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {e0163941}, pmid = {27749908}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Philippines ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Water Movements ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century). Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country.}, }
@article {pmid27746795, year = {2016}, author = {Villeneuve, I and Lamhamedi, MS and Benomar, L and Rainville, A and DeBlois, J and Beaulieu, J and Bousquet, J and Lambert, MC and Margolis, H}, title = {Morpho-Physiological Variation of White Spruce Seedlings from Various Seed Sources and Implications for Deployment under Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {1450}, pmid = {27746795}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Because of changes in climatic conditions, tree seeds originating from breeding programs may no longer be suited to sites where they are currently sent. As a consequence, new seed zones may have to be delineated. Assisted migration consists of transferring seed sources that match the future climatic conditions to which they are currently adapted. It represents a strategy that could be used to mitigate the potential negative consequences of climate change on forest productivity. Decisions with regard to the choice of the most appropriate seed sources have to rely on appropriate knowledge of morpho-physiological responses of trees. To meet this goal, white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) seedlings from eight seed orchards were evaluated during two years in a forest nursery, and at the end of the first growing season on three plantation sites located in different bioclimatic domains in Quebec. The morpho-physiological responses obtained at the end of the second growing season (2+0) in the nursery made it possible to cluster the orchards into three distinct groups. Modeling growth curves of these different groups showed that the height growth of seedlings from the second-generation and southern first-generation seed orchards was significantly higher than that of those from other orchards, by at least 6%. A multiple regression model with three climatic variables (average growing season temperature, average July temperature, length of the growing season) showed that the final height of seedlings (2+0) from the first-generation seed orchards was significantly related to the local climatic conditions at the orchard sites of origin where parental trees from surrounding natural populations were sampled to provide grafts for orchard establishment. Seedling height growth was significantly affected by both seed source origins and planting sites, but the relative ranking of the different seed sources was maintained regardless of reforestation site. This knowledge could be used, in conjunction with transfer models, to refine operational seed transfer rules and select the most suitable sites in an assisted migration strategy.}, }
@article {pmid27744477, year = {2017}, author = {Asemaninejad, A and Thorn, RG and Lindo, Z}, title = {Experimental Climate Change Modifies Degradative Succession in Boreal Peatland Fungal Communities.}, journal = {Microbial ecology}, volume = {73}, number = {3}, pages = {521-531}, pmid = {27744477}, issn = {1432-184X}, mesh = {Ascomycota/*classification/genetics/metabolism ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Fungal/genetics ; Microbiota/*genetics ; Mortierella/*classification/genetics/growth &amp; development ; Mycorrhizae/*classification/growth &amp; development ; Soil/chemistry ; Soil Microbiology ; Sphagnopsida/*microbiology ; Temperature ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Peatlands play an important role in global climate change through sequestration of atmospheric CO2. Climate-driven changes in the structure of fungal communities in boreal peatlands that favor saprotrophic fungi can substantially impact carbon dynamics and nutrient cycling in these crucial ecosystems. In a mesocosm study using a full factorial design, 100 intact peat monoliths, complete with living Sphagnum and above-ground vascular vegetation, were subjected to three climate change variables (increased temperature, reduced water table, and elevated CO2 concentrations). Peat litterbags were placed in mesocosms, and fungal communities in litterbags were monitored over 12 months to assess the impacts of climate change variables on peat-inhabiting fungi. Changes in fungal richness, diversity, and community composition were assessed using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of ribosomal DNA (rDNA). While general fungal richness reduced under warming conditions, Ascomycota exhibited higher diversity under increased temperature treatments over the course of the experiment. Both increased temperature and lowered water table position drove shifts in fungal community composition with a strong positive effect on endophytic and mycorrhizal fungi (including one operational taxonomic unit (OTU) tentatively identified as Barrenia panicia) and different groups of saprotrophs identified as Mortierella, Galerina, and Mycena. These shifts were observed during a predicted degradative succession in the decomposer community as different carbon substrates became available. Since fungi play a central role in peatland communities, increased abundances of saprotrophic fungi under warming conditions, at the expense of reduced fungal richness overall, may increase decomposition rates under future climate scenarios and could potentially aggravate the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27742170, year = {2017}, author = {Kaffenberger, BH and Shetlar, D and Norton, SA and Rosenbach, M}, title = {The effect of climate change on skin disease in North America.}, journal = {Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology}, volume = {76}, number = {1}, pages = {140-147}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaad.2016.08.014}, pmid = {27742170}, issn = {1097-6787}, mesh = {Animals ; Bites and Stings/*epidemiology ; Chikungunya Fever/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Cnidaria ; Coccidioidomycosis/epidemiology ; Dengue/epidemiology ; Disease Vectors ; *Endemic Diseases ; Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology ; Humans ; Leishmaniasis/epidemiology ; Lyme Disease/epidemiology ; North America/epidemiology ; Skin Diseases/*epidemiology/microbiology/parasitology ; Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology ; Zika Virus Infection/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Global temperatures continue to rise, reaching new records almost every year this decade. Although the causes are debated, climate change is a reality. Consequences of climate change include melting of the arctic ice cap, rising of sea levels, changes in precipitation patterns, and increased severe weather events. This article updates dermatologists about the effects of climate change on the epidemiology and geographic ranges of selected skin diseases in North America. Although globalization, travel, and trade are also important to changing disease and vector patterns, climate change creates favorable habitats and expanded access to immunologically naïve hosts. Endemic North American illnesses such as Lyme disease, leishmaniasis, and dimorphic fungal infections have recently expanded the geographic areas of risk. As temperatures increase, epidemic viral diseases such as hand-foot-and-mouth disease may develop transmission seasons that are longer and more intense. Chikungunya and dengue are now reported within the southern United States, with Zika on the horizon. Cutaneous injuries from aquatic and marine organisms that have expanding habitats and longer durations of peak activity include jellyfish envenomation, cercarial dermatitis, and seabather eruption, among others. Skin cancer rates may also be affected indirectly by changes in temperature and associated behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid27739483, year = {2016}, author = {Goberville, E and Hautekèete, NC and Kirby, RR and Piquot, Y and Luczak, C and Beaugrand, G}, title = {Climate change and the ash dieback crisis.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {35303}, pmid = {27739483}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Ascomycota/*pathogenicity ; *Climate Change ; Fraxinus/growth &amp; development/*microbiology ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; }, abstract = {Beyond the direct influence of climate change on species distribution and phenology, indirect effects may also arise from perturbations in species interactions. Infectious diseases are strong biotic forces that can precipitate population declines and lead to biodiversity loss. It has been shown in forest ecosystems worldwide that at least 10% of trees are vulnerable to extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated. In Europe, the emerging ash dieback disease caused by the fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, commonly called Chalara fraxinea, is causing a severe mortality of common ash trees (Fraxinus excelsior); this is raising concerns for the persistence of this widespread tree, which is both a key component of forest ecosystems and economically important for timber production. Here, we show how the pathogen and climate change may interact to affect the future spatial distribution of the common ash. Using two presence-only models, seven General Circulation Models and four emission scenarios, we show that climate change, by affecting the host and the pathogen separately, may uncouple their spatial distribution to create a mismatch in species interaction and so a lowering of disease transmission. Consequently, as climate change expands the ranges of both species polewards it may alleviate the ash dieback crisis in southern and occidental regions at the same time.}, }
@article {pmid27739159, year = {2017}, author = {Richardson, BA and Chaney, L and Shaw, NL and Still, SM}, title = {Will phenotypic plasticity affecting flowering phenology keep pace with climate change?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {2499-2508}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13532}, pmid = {27739159}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Artemisia/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Flowers ; Phenotype ; Reproduction ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Rising temperatures have begun to shift flowering time, but it is unclear whether phenotypic plasticity can accommodate projected temperature change for this century. Evaluating clines in phenological traits and the extent and variation in plasticity can provide key information on assessing risk of maladaptation and developing strategies to mitigate climate change. In this study, flower phenology was examined in 52 populations of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) growing in three common gardens. Flowering date (anthesis) varied 91 days from late July to late November among gardens. Mixed-effects modeling explained 79% of variation in flowering date, of which 46% could be assigned to plasticity and genetic variation in plasticity and 33% to genetics (conditional R[2] = 0.79, marginal R[2] = 0.33). Two environmental variables that explained the genetic variation were photoperiod and the onset of spring, the Julian date of accumulating degree-days >5 °C reaching 100. The genetic variation was mapped for contemporary and future climates (decades 2060 and 2090), showing flower date change varies considerably across the landscape. Plasticity was estimated to accommodate, on average, a ±13-day change in flowering date. However, the examination of genetic variation in plasticity suggests that the magnitude of plasticity could be affected by variation in the sensitivity to photoperiod and temperature. In a warmer common garden, lower-latitude populations have greater plasticity (+16 days) compared to higher-latitude populations (+10 days). Mapped climatypes of flowering date for contemporary and future climates illustrate the wide breadth of plasticity and large geographic overlap. Our research highlights the importance of integrating information on genetic variation, phenotypic plasticity and climatic niche modeling to evaluate plant responses and elucidate vulnerabilities to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27737979, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {Vector-borne disease, cities, and climate change.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {62}, number = {10}, pages = {818}, pmid = {27737979}, issn = {1715-5258}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; *Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Culicidae ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Tick-Borne Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Ticks ; West Nile Fever/*epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid27733288, year = {2017}, author = {Gao, G and Clare, AS and Rose, C and Caldwell, GS}, title = {Eutrophication and warming-driven green tides (Ulva rigida) are predicted to increase under future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {114}, number = {1}, pages = {439-447}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.10.003}, pmid = {27733288}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Eutrophication ; Germination ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Lipid Metabolism ; Nitrates/metabolism ; Proteins/metabolism ; Reproduction ; Seaweed/growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Ulva/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The incidence and severity of extraordinary macroalgae blooms (green tides) are increasing. Here, climate change (ocean warming and acidification) impacts on life history and biochemical responses of a causative green tide species, Ulva rigida, were investigated under combinations of pH (7.95, 7.55, corresponding to lower and higher pCO2), temperature (14, 18°C) and nitrate availability (6 and 150μmolL[-1]). The higher temperature accelerated the onset and magnitude of gamete settlement. Any two factor combination promoted germination and accelerated growth in young plants. The higher temperature increased reproduction, which increased further in combination with elevated pCO2 or nitrate. Reproductive success was highest (64.4±5.1%) when the upper limits of all three variables were combined. Biochemically, more protein and lipid but less carbohydrate were synthesized under higher temperature and nitrate conditions. These results suggest that climate change may cause more severe green tides, particularly when eutrophication cannot be effectively controlled.}, }
@article {pmid27732622, year = {2016}, author = {Estrada-Contreras, I and Equihua, M and Laborde, J and Martínez Meyer, E and Sánchez-Velásquez, LR}, title = {Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {e0164178}, pmid = {27732622}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Biodiversity ; Carbon Sequestration ; Cedrela/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Forests ; Mexico ; Models, Biological ; Probability ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.}, }
@article {pmid27730286, year = {2017}, author = {Bhattarai, MD and Secchi, S and Schoof, J}, title = {An Analysis of the Climate Change Mitigation Potential through Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration in a Corn Belt Watershed.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {59}, number = {1}, pages = {77-86}, pmid = {27730286}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Soil/*chemistry ; Glycine max/*growth &amp; development ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Land-based carbon sequestration constitutes a major low cost and immediately viable option in climate change mitigation. Using downscaled data from eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models for a simulation period between 2015 and 2099, we examine the carbon sequestration potential of alternative agricultural land uses in an intensively farmed Corn Belt watershed and the impact of climate change on crop yields. Our results show that switching from conventional tillage continuous corn to no-till corn-soybean can sequester the equivalent of 192.1 MtCO2 eq of soil organic carbon per hectare with a sequestration rate of 2.26 MtCO2 eq ha[-1] yr[-1]. Our results also indicate that switchgrass can sequester the equivalent of 310.7 MtCO2 eq of soil organic carbon per hectare with a sequestration rate of 3.65 MtCO2 eq ha[-1] yr[-1]. Our findings suggest that, unlike for corn and soybean yields, climate change does not have a significant effect on switchgrass yields, possibly due to the carbon fertilization effect.}, }
@article {pmid27729484, year = {2016}, author = {Fordham, DA and Brook, BW and Hoskin, CJ and Pressey, RL and VanDerWal, J and Williams, SE}, title = {Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {}, pmid = {27729484}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anura ; Australia ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species-area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays-an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur.}, }
@article {pmid27728846, year = {2017}, author = {Xu, G and Liu, X and Wang, Q and Yu, X and Hang, Y}, title = {Integrated rice-duck farming mitigates the global warming potential in rice season.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {575}, number = {}, pages = {58-66}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.233}, pmid = {27728846}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animals ; China ; *Ducks ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Oryza ; Seasons ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Integrated rice-duck farming (IRDF), as a mode of ecological agriculture, is an important way to realize sustainable development of agriculture. A 2-year split-plot field experiment was performed to evaluate the effects of IRDF on methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and its ecological mechanism in rice season. This experiment was conducted with two rice farming systems (FS) of IRDF and conventional farming (CF) under four paddy-upland rotation systems (PUR): rice-fallow (RF), annual straw incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWS), annual straw-based biogas residues incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWB), and rice-green manure (RGM). During the rice growing seasons, IRDF decreased the CH4 emission by 8.80-16.68%, while increased the N2O emission by 4.23-15.20%, when compared to CF. Given that CH4 emission contributed to 85.83-96.22% of global warming potential (GWP), the strong reduction in CH4 emission led to a significantly lower GWP of IRDF as compared to CF. The reason for this trend was because IRDF has significant effect on dissolved oxygen (DO) and soil redox potential (Eh), which were two pivotal factors for CH4 and N2O emissions in this study. The IRDF not only mitigates the GWP, but also increases the rice yield by 0.76-2.43% compared to CF. Moreover, compared to RWS system, RF, RWB and RGM systems significantly reduced CH4 emission by 50.17%, 44.89% and 39.51%, respectively, while increased N2O emission by 10.58%, 14.60% and 23.90%, respectively. And RWS system had the highest GWP. These findings suggest that mitigating GWP and improving rice yield could be simultaneously achieved by the IRDF, and employing suitable PUR would benefit for relieving greenhouse effect.}, }
@article {pmid27726943, year = {2016}, author = {Rosenblatt, AE and Schmitz, OJ}, title = {Climate Change, Nutrition, and Bottom-Up and Top-Down Food Web Processes.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {31}, number = {12}, pages = {965-975}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2016.09.009}, pmid = {27726943}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Feeding Behavior ; *Food Chain ; }, abstract = {Climate change ecology has focused on climate effects on trophic interactions through the lenses of temperature effects on organismal physiology and phenological asynchronies. Trophic interactions are also affected by the nutrient content of resources, but this topic has received less attention. Using concepts from nutritional ecology, we propose a conceptual framework for understanding how climate affects food webs through top-down and bottom-up processes impacted by co-occurring environmental drivers. The framework integrates climate effects on consumer physiology and feeding behavior with effects on resource nutrient content. It illustrates how studying responses of simplified food webs to simplified climate change might produce erroneous predictions. We encourage greater integrative complexity of climate change research on trophic interactions to resolve patterns and enhance predictive capacities.}, }
@article {pmid27726439, year = {2016}, author = {Sarfaty, M and Kreslake, J and Ewart, G and Guidotti, TL and Thurston, GD and Balmes, JR and Maibach, EW}, title = {Survey of International Members of the American Thoracic Society on Climate Change and Health.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {1808-1813}, pmid = {27726439}, issn = {2325-6621}, support = {P30 ES000260/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; Education, Medical ; *Environmental Health ; Female ; *Global Health ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Physicians ; Societies, Medical ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {The American Thoracic Society (ATS), in collaboration with George Mason University, surveyed international members of the society to assess perceptions, clinical experiences, and preferred policy responses related to global climate change. A recruitment email was sent by the ATS President in October 2015 to 5,013 international members. Subsequently, four reminder emails were sent to nonrespondents. Responses were received from 489 members in 68 countries; the response rate was 9.8%. Half of respondents reported working in countries in Asia (25%) or Europe (25%), with the remainder in South America (18%), North America (Canada and Mexico) (18%), Australia or New Zealand (9%), and Africa (6%). Survey estimate confidence intervals were ± 5% or smaller. A high percentage of international ATS survey respondents judged that climate change is happening (96%), that it is driven by human activity (70%), and that it is relevant to patient care ("a great deal"/"a moderate amount") (80%). A majority of respondents also indicated they are already observing health impacts of climate change among their patients; most commonly as increases in chronic disease severity from air pollution (88%), allergic symptoms from exposure to plants or mold (72%), and severe weather injuries (69%). An even larger majority anticipated seeing these climate-related health impacts in the next two decades. Respondents further indicated that physicians and physician organizations should play an active role in educating patients, the public, and policy makers on the human health effects of climate change. International ATS respondents, like their counterparts in the U.S., observed that human health is already adversely affected by climate change, and support responses to address this situation.}, }
@article {pmid27724843, year = {2016}, author = {Freilich, X and Anadón, JD and Bukala, J and Calderon, O and Chakraborty, R and Boissinot, S and , }, title = {Comparative Phylogeography of Ethiopian anurans: impact of the Great Rift Valley and Pleistocene climate change.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {206}, pmid = {27724843}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern ; Animals ; Anura/*genetics ; Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Gene Flow ; Genetic Variation ; Phylogeny ; *Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Ethiopian highlands are a biodiversity hotspot, split by the Great Rift Valley into two distinct systems of plateaus and mountains. The Rift Valley is currently hot and dry and acts as a barrier to gene flow for highland-adapted species. It is however unlikely that the conditions in the Rift were inhospitable to highland species during the entire Pleistocene. To assess the significance of the Ethiopian Rift as a biogeographic barrier as well as the impact Pleistocene climatic changes have had on the evolution of Ethiopian organisms, we performed phylogeographic analyses and developed present and past niche models on seven anuran species with different elevational and ecological preferences.<br><br>RESULTS: We found that highland species on the east and the west sides of the Rift are genetically differentiated and have not experienced any detectable gene flow for at least 0.4 my. In contrast, species found at elevations lower than 2500&#xa0;m do not show any population structure. We also determined that highland species have lower effective population sizes than lowland species, which have experienced a large, yet gradual, demographic expansion, starting approximately half a million year ago.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The pattern we report here is consistent with the increasingly warmer and drier conditions of the Pleistocene in East Africa, which resulted in the expansion of savanna, the fragmentation of forests and the shrinking of highland habitats. Climatic niche models indicated that the Rift is currently non suitable for most of the studied species, but it could have been a more permeable barrier during the Last Glacial Maximum. However, considering the strong genetic structure of highland species, we hypothesize that the barrier mechanisms at the Rift are not only climatic but also topographical.}, }
@article {pmid27723460, year = {2017}, author = {Amin, MZM and Shaaban, AJ and Ercan, A and Ishida, K and Kavvas, ML and Chen, ZQ and Jang, S}, title = {Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {575}, number = {}, pages = {12-22}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.009}, pmid = {27723460}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid27720597, year = {2017}, author = {Wu, H and Ismail, M and Ding, J}, title = {Global warming increases the interspecific competitiveness of the invasive plant alligator weed, Alternanthera philoxeroides.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {575}, number = {}, pages = {1415-1422}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.226}, pmid = {27720597}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Amaranthaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Animals ; China ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Introduced Species ; Plant Weeds/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Global warming could accelerate the spread of invasive species to higher latitudes and intensify their effects on native species. Here, we report results of two years of field surveys along a latitudinal gradient (21°N to 31°N) in southern China, to determine the species structure of the invasive plant Alternanthera philoxeroides community. We also performed a replacement series experiment (mono and mixed) to evaluate the effects of elevated temperature on the competitiveness of A. philoxeroides with the native co-occurring species Digitaria sanguinalis. In the field survey, we found that the dominance of A. philoxeroides increased with increasing of latitude gradient while cover of D. sanguinalis decreased. In monospecific plantings, artificial warming reduced the length of D. sanguinalis roots. In mixed plantings, warming reduced both A. philoxeroides abundance and D. sanguinalis stem length when A. philoxeroides was more prevalent in the planting. Warming also significantly reduced D. sanguinalis biomass, but increased that of A. philoxeroides. In addition, elevated temperatures significantly reduced the relative yield (RY) of D. sanguinalis, particularly when A. philoxeroides was planted in higher proportion in the plot. These results suggest that the invasiveness of A. philoxeroides increased with increasing latitude, and that warming may increase the effectiveness of its interspecific competition with D. sanguinalis. Hence, under global warming conditions, the harm to native species from A. philoxeroides would increase at higher latitudes. Our findings are critical for predicting the invasiveness of alien species under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27720081, year = {2016}, author = {Sørensen, JG and Kristensen, TN and Overgaard, J}, title = {Evolutionary and ecological patterns of thermal acclimation capacity in Drosophila: is it important for keeping up with climate change?.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {98-104}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2016.08.003}, pmid = {27720081}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Drosophila/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity of temperature tolerance (thermal acclimation) is often highlighted as an important component of the acute and evolutionary adaptation to temperatures in insects. For this reason, it is often suggested that thermal acclimation ability could be important for buffering the consequences of climate change. Based on data from Drosophila we discuss if and how phenotypic plasticity is likely to mitigate the effects of climate change. We conclude that plasticity of upper thermal limits is small in magnitude, evolves slowly and that acclimation ability is weakly correlated with latitude and environmental heterogeneity. Accordingly plasticity in upper thermal limits is unlikely to effectively buffer effects of global warming for species already close to their upper thermal boundaries.}, }
@article {pmid27720080, year = {2016}, author = {Hellmann, JJ and Grundel, R and Hoving, C and Schuurman, GW}, title = {A call to insect scientists: challenges and opportunities of managing insect communities under climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {92-97}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2016.08.005}, pmid = {27720080}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/trends ; Decision Making ; *Ecosystem ; Entomology/trends ; Insecta/*physiology ; }, abstract = {As climate change moves insect systems into uncharted territory, more knowledge about insect dynamics and the factors that drive them could enable us to better manage and conserve insect communities. Climate change may also require us to revisit insect management goals and strategies and lead to a new kind of scientific engagement in management decision-making. Here we make five key points about the role of insect science in aiding and crafting management decisions, and we illustrate those points with the monarch butterfly and the Karner blue butterfly, two species undergoing considerable change and facing new management dilemmas. Insect biology has a strong history of engagement in applied problems, and as the impacts of climate change increase, a reimagined ethic of entomology in service of broader society may emerge. We hope to motivate insect biologists to contribute time and effort toward solving the challenges of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27720079, year = {2016}, author = {Boullis, A and Detrain, C and Francis, F and Verheggen, FJ}, title = {Will climate change affect insect pheromonal communication?.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {87-91}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2016.08.006}, pmid = {27720079}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animal Communication ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Insecta/*physiology ; Pheromones/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Understanding how climate change will affect species interactions is a challenge for all branches of ecology. We have only limited understanding of how increasing temperature and atmospheric CO2 and O3 levels will affect pheromone-mediated communication among insects. Based on the existing literature, we suggest that the entire process of pheromonal communication, from production to behavioural response, is likely to be impacted by increases in temperature and modifications to atmospheric CO2 and O3 levels. We argue that insect species relying on long-range chemical signals will be most impacted, because these signals will likely suffer from longer exposure to oxidative gases during dispersal. We provide future directions for research programmes investigating the consequences of climate change on insect pheromonal communication.}, }
@article {pmid27720078, year = {2016}, author = {Maino, JL and Kong, JD and Hoffmann, AA and Barton, MG and Kearney, MR}, title = {Mechanistic models for predicting insect responses to climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {81-86}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2016.07.006}, pmid = {27720078}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Insecta/*physiology ; Life Cycle Stages ; Microclimate ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Mechanistic models of the impacts of climate change on insects can be seen as very specific hypotheses about the connections between microclimate, ecophysiology and vital rates. These models must adequately capture stage-specific responses, carry-over effects between successive stages, and the evolutionary potential of the functional traits involved in complex insect life-cycles. Here we highlight key considerations for current approaches to mechanistic modelling of insect responses to climate change. We illustrate these considerations within a general mechanistic framework incorporating the thermodynamic linkages between microclimate and heat, water and nutrient exchange throughout the life-cycle under different climate scenarios. We emphasise how such a holistic perspective will provide increasingly robust insights into how insects adapt and respond to changing climates.}, }
@article {pmid27720076, year = {2016}, author = {Boggs, CL}, title = {The fingerprints of global climate change on insect populations.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {69-73}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2016.07.004}, pmid = {27720076}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Insecta/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Synthesizing papers from the last two years, I examined generalizations about the fingerprints of climate change on insects' population dynamics and phenology. Recent work shows that populations can differ in response to changes in climate means and variances. The part of the thermal niche occupied by an insect population, voltinism, plasticity and adaptation to weather perturbations, and interactions with other species can all exacerbate or mitigate responses to climate change. Likewise, land use change or agricultural practices can affect responses to climate change. Nonetheless, our knowledge of effects of climate change is still biased by organism and geographic region, and to some extent by scale of climate parameter.}, }
@article {pmid27720075, year = {2016}, author = {Lobo, JM}, title = {The use of occurrence data to predict the effects of climate change on insects.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {62-68}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2016.07.003}, pmid = {27720075}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Insecta/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Experimental information on the roles played by climatic factors in determining the ecology and distribution of insect species is scarce. This has stimulated the increasing use of the climatic characteristics of the localities in which the species are observed to derive predictions under different climatic scenarios (the so called species-distribution models or SDMs). This text reviews the main limitations of these correlative models when they are applied to organisms, such as insects, that are characterized by a high degree of collector bias and incompleteness. It is argued that SDMs must rely solely on presence information, rejecting the use of background or pseudoabsences, and that we are not predicting the future distribution of a species but exploring the future location of the climatic conditions in which a species was observed. The scarcity and bias of the available occurrence information in insects as well as our ignorance about the non-climatic factors delimiting species ranges forces us to be extremely careful. It is therefore desirable to avoid the use of central tendency measures reflecting supposed optimum niche conditions because they are particularly dependent on the quantity and biases of the occurrence information. The use of simple algorithms and procedures aimed at extracting information on environmental limits from the available occurrences would be more convenient in this case.}, }
@article {pmid27720073, year = {2016}, author = {Forrest, JR}, title = {Complex responses of insect phenology to climate change.}, journal = {Current opinion in insect science}, volume = {17}, number = {}, pages = {49-54}, doi = {10.1016/j.cois.2016.07.002}, pmid = {27720073}, issn = {2214-5753}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Insecta/*physiology ; Life Cycle Stages/physiology ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Insect phenologies are changing in response to climate warming. Shifts toward earlier seasonal activity are widespread; however, responses of insect phenology to warming are often more complex. Many species have prolonged their activity periods; others have shown delays. Furthermore, because of interspecific differences in temperature sensitivity, warming can increase or decrease synchronization between insects and their food plants and natural enemies. Here, I review recent findings in three areas-shifts in phenology, changes in voltinism, and altered species interactions-and highlight counterintuitive responses to warming caused by the particularities of insect life cycles. Throughout, I emphasize how an appreciation of the evolutionary processes shaping insect life histories is necessary to forecast changes in insect phenology and their demographic consequences.}, }
@article {pmid27720011, year = {2016}, author = {Verde, C and Giordano, D and Bellas, CM and di Prisco, G and Anesio, AM}, title = {Polar Marine Microorganisms and Climate Change.}, journal = {Advances in microbial physiology}, volume = {69}, number = {}, pages = {187-215}, doi = {10.1016/bs.ampbs.2016.07.002}, pmid = {27720011}, issn = {2162-5468}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Antarctic Regions ; Aquatic Organisms/metabolism ; Arctic Regions ; Bacteria/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Climate ; Ecosystem ; Ice Cover/*microbiology ; Microbiota/*physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The large diversity of marine microorganisms harboured by oceans plays an important role in planet sustainability by driving globally important biogeochemical cycles; all primary and most secondary production in the oceans is performed by microorganisms. The largest part of the planet is covered by cold environments; consequently, cold-adapted microorganisms have crucial functional roles in globally important environmental processes and biogeochemical cycles cold-adapted extremophiles are a remarkable model to shed light on the molecular basis of survival at low temperature. The indigenous populations of Antarctic and Arctic microorganisms are endowed with genetic and physiological traits that allow them to live and effectively compete at the temperatures prevailing in polar regions. Some genes, e.g. glycosyltransferases and glycosylsynthetases involved in the architecture of the cell wall, may have been acquired/retained during evolution of polar strains or lost in tropical strains. This present work focusses on temperature and its role in shaping microbial adaptations; however, in assessing the impacts of climate changes on microbial diversity and biogeochemical cycles in polar oceans, it should not be forgotten that physiological studies need to include the interaction of temperature with other abiotic and biotic factors.}, }
@article {pmid27715295, year = {2016}, author = {Lavey, WG}, title = {Hospitals Should Help Communities Prepare for Climate Change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {106}, number = {11}, pages = {1952-1954}, pmid = {27715295}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {Climate ; Community Health Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; *Community-Institutional Relations ; Cooperative Behavior ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; Hospitals, Community/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; *Quality Improvement ; Residence Characteristics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid27714641, year = {2016}, author = {Minos, D and Butzlaff, I and Demmler, KM and Rischke, R}, title = {Economic Growth, Climate Change, and Obesity.}, journal = {Current obesity reports}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {441-448}, pmid = {27714641}, issn = {2162-4968}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Economic Development ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Obesity/*etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Policy Making ; }, abstract = {Human and planetary health as well as economic growth are firmly interlinked and subject to complex interaction effects. In this paper, we provide an overview of interlinkages between economic growth, climate change, and obesity focusing on recent advances in the literature. In addition to empirical findings, we discuss different theoretical frameworks used to conceptualize these complex links and highlight policy options and challenges. We conclude that policies addressing both climate change and obesity simultaneously are particularly promising and often suitable for ensuring sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid27714505, year = {2017}, author = {Cola, G and Failla, O and Maghradze, D and Megrelidze, L and Mariani, L}, title = {Grapevine phenology and climate change in Georgia.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {61}, number = {4}, pages = {761-773}, pmid = {27714505}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Altitude ; Climate Change/*history ; Georgia (Republic) ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Vitis ; }, abstract = {While the climate of Western Europe has been deeply affected by the abrupt climate change that took place in the late '1980s of the twentieth century, a similar signal is detected only few years later, in 1994, in Georgia. Grapevine phenology is deeply influenced by climate and this paper aimed to analyze how phenological timing changed before and after the climatic change of 1994. Availability of thermal resources in the two climatic phases for the five altitudinal belts in the 0-1250-m range was analyzed. A phenological dataset gathered in two experimental sites during the period 2012-2014, and a suitable thermal dataset was used to calibrate a phenological model based on the normal approach and able to describe BBCH phenological stages 61 (beginning of flowering), 71 (fruit set), and 81 (veraison). Calibration was performed for four relevant Georgian varieties (Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi, and Saperavi). The model validation was performed on an independent 3-year dataset gathered in Gorizia (Italy). Furthermore, in the case of variety Rkatsiteli, the model was applied to the 1974-2013 thermal time series in order to obtain phenological maps of the Georgian territory. Results show that after the climate change of 1994, Rkatsiteli showed an advance, more relevant at higher altitudes where the whole increase of thermal resource was effectively translated in phenological advance. For instance the average advance of veraison was 5.9 days for 250-500 m asl belt and 18.1 days for 750-1000 m asl). On the other hand, at lower altitudes, phenological advance was depleted by superoptimal temperatures. As a final result, some suggestions for the adaptation of viticultural practices to the current climatic phase are provided.}, }
@article {pmid27713106, year = {2017}, author = {Butterworth, MK and Morin, CW and Comrie, AC}, title = {An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {125}, number = {4}, pages = {579-585}, pmid = {27713106}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Aedes/virology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology/transmission ; Dengue Virus ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/virology ; Models, Theoretical ; Southeastern United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue fever, caused by a mosquito-transmitted virus, is an increasing health concern in the Americas. Meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation can affect disease distribution and abundance through biophysical impacts on the vector and on the virus. Such tightly coupled links may facilitate further spread of dengue fever under a changing climate. In the southeastern United States, the dengue vector is widely established and exists on the current fringe of dengue transmission.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We assessed projected climate change-driven shifts in dengue transmission risk in this region.<br><br>METHODS: We used a dynamic mosquito population and virus transmission model driven by meteorological data to simulate Aedes aegypti populations and dengue cases in 23 locations in the southeastern United States under current climate conditions and future climate projections. We compared estimates for each location with simulations based on observed data from San Juan, Puerto Rico, where dengue is endemic.<br><br>RESULTS: Our simulations based on current climate data suggest that dengue transmission at levels similar to those in San Juan is possible at several U.S. locations during the summer months, particularly in southern Florida and Texas. Simulations that include climate change projections suggest that conditions may become suitable for virus transmission in a larger number of locations and for a longer period of time during each year. However, in contrast with San Juan, U.S. locations would not sustain year-round dengue transmission according to our model.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is limited by low winter temperatures in the mainland United States, which are likely to prevent its permanent establishment. Although future climate conditions may increase the length of the mosquito season in many locations, projected increases in dengue transmission are limited to the southernmost locations.}, }
@article {pmid27706832, year = {2017}, author = {Diamond, SE}, title = {Evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance: biogeographic patterns and expectations under climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1389}, number = {1}, pages = {5-19}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.13223}, pmid = {27706832}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Geography ; Phenotype ; Selection, Genetic ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {How will organisms respond to climate change? The rapid changes in global climate are expected to impose strong directional selection on fitness-related traits. A major open question then is the potential for adaptive evolutionary change under these shifting climates. At the most basic level, evolutionary change requires the presence of heritable variation and natural selection. Because organismal tolerances of high temperature place an upper bound on responding to temperature change, there has been a surge of research effort on the evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance traits. Here, I review the available evidence on heritable variation in upper thermal tolerance traits, adopting a biogeographic perspective to understand how heritability of tolerance varies across space. Specifically, I use meta-analytical models to explore the relationship between upper thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature. I also explore how variation in the methods used to obtain these thermal tolerance heritabilities influences the estimation of heritable variation in tolerance. I conclude by discussing the implications of a positive relationship between thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature and how this might influence responses to future changes in climate.}, }
@article {pmid27703684, year = {2016}, author = {Winter, M and Fiedler, W and Hochachka, WM and Koehncke, A and Meiri, S and De la Riva, I}, title = {Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {160158}, pmid = {27703684}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.}, }
@article {pmid27703075, year = {2016}, author = {Kikuchi, Y and Tada, A and Musolin, DL and Hari, N and Hosokawa, T and Fujisaki, K and Fukatsu, T}, title = {Collapse of Insect Gut Symbiosis under Simulated Climate Change.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {27703075}, issn = {2150-7511}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Gastrointestinal Microbiome/*radiation effects ; Heteroptera/growth &amp; development/*microbiology/*radiation effects ; Models, Theoretical ; Symbiosis/*radiation effects ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Global warming impacts diverse organisms not only directly but also indirectly via other organisms with which they interact. Recently, the possibility that elevated temperatures resulting from global warming may substantially affect biodiversity through disrupting mutualistic/parasitic associations has been highlighted. Here we report an experimental demonstration that global warming can affect a pest insect via suppression of its obligate bacterial symbiont. The southern green stinkbug Nezara viridula depends on a specific gut bacterium for its normal growth and survival. When the insects were reared inside or outside a simulated warming incubator wherein temperature was controlled at 2.5°C higher than outside, the insects reared in the incubator exhibited severe fitness defects (i.e., retarded growth, reduced size, yellowish body color, etc.) and significant reduction of symbiont population, particularly in the midsummer season, whereas the insects reared outside did not. Rearing at 30°C or 32.5°C resulted in similar defective phenotypes of the insects, whereas no adult insects emerged at 35°C. Notably, experimental symbiont suppression by an antibiotic treatment also induced similar defective phenotypes of the insects, indicating that the host's defective phenotypes are attributable not to the heat stress itself but to the suppression of the symbiont population induced by elevated temperature. These results strongly suggest that high temperature in the midsummer season negatively affects the insects not directly but indirectly via the heat-vulnerable obligate bacterial symbiont, which highlights the practical relevance of mutualism collapse in this warming world.<br><br>IMPORTANCE: Climate change is among the biggest environmental issues in the contemporary world, and its impact on the biodiversity and ecosystem is not only of scientific interest but also of practical concern for the general public. On the basis of our laboratory data obtained under strictly controlled environmental conditions and our simulated warming data obtained in seminatural settings (elevated 2.5&#xb0;C above the normal temperature), we demonstrate here that Nezara viridula, the notorious stinkbug pest, suffers serious fitness defects in the summer season under the simulated warming conditions, wherein high temperature acts on the insect not directly but indirectly via suppression of its obligate gut bacterium. Our finding highlights that heat-susceptible symbionts can be the "Achilles' heel" of symbiont-dependent organisms under climate change conditions.}, }
@article {pmid27702748, year = {2016}, author = {Ramanathan, V and Haines, A}, title = {Healthcare professionals must lead on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {355}, number = {}, pages = {i5245}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.i5245}, pmid = {27702748}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/toxicity ; Carbon Dioxide/toxicity ; *Climate Change ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; Leadership ; }, }
@article {pmid27698299, year = {2016}, author = {D'Ovidio, MC and Annesi-Maesano, I and D'Amato, G and Cecchi, L}, title = {Climate change and occupational allergies: an overview on biological pollution, exposure and prevention.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {406-414}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_16_03_12}, pmid = {27698299}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {Allergens/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Occupational Diseases/*epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; *Occupational Exposure ; Occupational Health ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change, air pollution, temperature increase and other environmental variables are modifying air quality, contributing to the increase of prevalence of allergic respiratory diseases. Allergies are complex diseases characterized by multilevel interactions between individual susceptibility, response to immune modulation and environmental exposures to physical, chemical and biological agents. Occupational allergies introduce a further complexity to these relationships by adding occupational exposure to both the indoor and outdoor ones in the living environment.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to overview climate-related allergy affecting environmental and occupational health, as literature data are scanty in this regard, and to suggest a management model of this risk based on a multidisciplinary approach, taking the case of biological pollution, with details on exposure and prevention.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The management of climate-related occupational allergy should take into account preventive health strategies, environmental, public and occupational interventions, as well as to develop, implement, evaluate, and improve guidelines and standards protecting workers health under changing climatic conditions; new tools and strategies based on local conditions will have to be developed. Experimental studies and acquisition of environmental and personal data have to be matched to derive useful information for the scope of occupational health and safety.}, }
@article {pmid27698298, year = {2016}, author = {Vonesch, N and D'Ovidio, MC and Melis, P and Remoli, ME and Ciufolini, MG and Tomao, P}, title = {Climate change, vector-borne diseases and working population.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {397-405}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_16_03_11}, pmid = {27698298}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Vectors ; Encephalitis, Arbovirus/epidemiology ; Humans ; Occupational Health ; Tick-Borne Diseases/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Risks associated with climate change are increasing worldwide and the global effects include altered weather and precipitation patterns, rising temperatures and others; human health can be affected directly and indirectly. This paper is an overview of literature regarding climate changes, their interaction with vector-borne diseases and impact on working population.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: Articles regarding climate changes as drivers of vector-borne diseases and evidences of occupational cases have been picked up by public databank. Technical documents were also included in the study.<br><br>RESULTS: Evidences regarding the impact of climate changes on vector-borne diseases in Europe, provided by the analysis of the literature, are presented.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases are likely to be emerging due to climate modifications, with impacts on public and occupational health. However, other environmental and anthropogenic drivers such as increasing travelling and trade, deforestation and reforestation, altered land use and urbanization can influence their spread. Further studies are necessary to better understand the phenomenon and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect human health should be accelerated and strengthened.}, }
@article {pmid27698297, year = {2016}, author = {Contessa, GM and Grandi, C and Scognamiglio, M and Genovese, E and Sandri, S}, title = {Climate change and safety at work with ionizing radiations.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {386-396}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_16_03_10}, pmid = {27698297}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Nuclear Power Plants ; Occupational Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Occupational Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Radiation Monitoring ; Radiation Protection ; *Radiation, Ionizing ; Radioactive Hazard Release ; }, abstract = {The accident at Tokyo Electric Power Company's (TEPCO's) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) has been one of the dominant topic in nuclear safety and it has brought new attention on the matter of accidents in NPPs due to external events related to natural causes. Climate change has risen new risks and the growing probability of extreme external events has increased exposure and vulnerability of workers in the nuclear sector. However extreme natural events are a threat not only to NPPs but to all facilities dealing with radioactive material and in an emergency scenario they can affect the effectiveness and implementation of safety devices and procedures and also prevent communications, causing delays in the readiness of response. It is clear that adaptation strategies are necessary to cope with emerging changes in climate and a new nuclear safety culture is growing, that addresses accidents initiated not only by internal but also by external events.}, }
@article {pmid27698296, year = {2016}, author = {Gatto, MP and Cabella, R and Gherardi, M}, title = {Climate change: the potential impact on occupational exposure to pesticides.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {374-385}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_16_03_09}, pmid = {27698296}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Insecta ; Occupational Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Occupational Health ; Pesticides/*adverse effects/analysis ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the possible influence of global climate change (GCC) on exposure to plant protection products (PPP) in the workplace.<br><br>METHODS: The paper has evaluated the main potential relationships between GCC and occupational exposure to pesticides, by highlighting how global warming might affect their future use and by reviewing its possible consequence on workers' exposure.<br><br>RESULTS: Global warming, influencing the spatial and temporal distribution and proliferation of weeds, the impact of already present insect pests and pathogens and the introduction of new infesting species, could cause a changed use of pesticides in terms of higher amounts, doses and types of products applied, so influencing the human exposure to them during agricultural activities. GCC, in particular heat waves, may also potentially have impact on workers' susceptibility to pesticides absorption.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Prevention policies of health in the workplace must be ready to address new risks from occupational exposure to pesticide, presumably different from current risks, since an increased use may be expected.}, }
@article {pmid27698295, year = {2016}, author = {Harari Arjona, R and Piñeiros, J and Ayabaca, M and Harari Freire, F}, title = {Climate change and agricultural workers' health in Ecuador: occupational exposure to UV radiation and hot environments.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {368-373}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_16_03_08}, pmid = {27698295}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {Agricultural Workers' Diseases/*epidemiology ; Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Ecuador ; Environment ; Farmers ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Occupational Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Occupational Health/*trends ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global concern but little is known about its potential health effects in workers from non-industrialized countries. Ecuadorian workers from the coast (hot environments) and Andean region (elevated UV radiation) might be at particular risk of such effects. In the Andean region, measurements of UV index show maximum levels exceeding 11, a level considered being extreme according to the WHO. Also, an increased incidence of skin cancer was reported the last decennium, this being the second most common cancer type in men and women. In the coast, a high reported prevalence of kidney disease in agricultural workers is suggested to be related to exposure to hot temperatures. The scarce data available on occupational health in Ecuadorian agricultural workers raise the need for further investigation. Data worldwide shows an increasing prevalence of UV radiation- and heat stress-related illnesses in agricultural workers and urges the adoption of preventive measures.}, }
@article {pmid27698293, year = {2016}, author = {Grandi, C and Borra, M and Militello, A and Polichetti, A}, title = {Impact of climate change on occupational exposure to solar radiation.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {343-356}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_16_03_06}, pmid = {27698293}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Occupational Exposure ; Occupational Health ; Stratospheric Ozone ; Sunlight/*adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Occupational exposure to solar radiation may induce both acute and long-term effects on skin and eyes. Personal exposure is very difficult to assess accurately, as it depends on environmental, organisational and individual factors. The ongoing climate change interacting with stratospheric ozone dynamics may affect occupational exposure to solar radiation. In addition, tropospheric levels of environmental pollutants interacting with solar radiation may be altered by climate dynamics, so introducing another variable affecting the overall exposure to solar radiation. Given the uncertainties regarding the direction of changes in exposure to solar radiation due to climate change, compliance of outdoor workers with protective measures and a proper health surveillance are crucial. At the same time, education and training, along with the promotion of healthier lifestyles, are of paramount importance.}, }
@article {pmid27698292, year = {2016}, author = {Marchetti, E and Capone, P and Freda, D}, title = {Climate change impact on microclimate of work environment related to occupational health and productivity.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {338-342}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_16_03_05}, pmid = {27698292}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {Body Temperature Regulation ; Climate Change/*economics ; *Efficiency ; *Environment ; Humans ; *Microclimate ; Occupational Exposure ; Occupational Health/*economics/*trends ; Workplace ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is a global emergency that influences human health and occupational safety. Global warming characterized by an increase in temperature of the ambience and humidity affects human health directly impairing body thermoregulation with serious consequences: dehydration, fatigue, heat stroke and even death. Several studies have demonstrated negative effects of climate change on working populations in a wide variety of workplaces with particular regard to outdoor and uncooled indoor workplaces. Most vulnerable workers are outdoor workers in tropical and subtropical countries usually involved in heavy labor during hot seasons. Many of the consequences therefore, regarding working people are possible, even without health symptoms by reducing work productivity.<br><br>AIM: The scope of this review is to investigate effects of climate change on workers both in relation to health and work productivity.<br><br>METHODS: This study has been realized by analyzing recent international literature.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In order to reduce negative effects of climate change on working populations it is essential to implement preventive measures with a multidisciplinary strategy limiting health risks and improving work productivity.}, }
@article {pmid27698291, year = {2016}, author = {Ciardini, V and Contessa, GM and Falsaperla, R and Gómez-Amo, JL and Meloni, D and Monteleone, F and Pace, G and Piacentino, S and Sferlazzo, D and di Sarra, A}, title = {Global and Mediterranean climate change: a short summary.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {325-337}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_16_03_04}, pmid = {27698291}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Mediterranean Region ; Occupational Health/trends ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Observed changes at the global scale. An increase of the annual mean global temperature and changes of other climate parameters have been observed in the last century. The global temperature and the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases are changing at a very fast pace compared to those found in palaeoclimate records. Changes in the Mediterranean. Variations of some climate change indicators can be much larger at the local than at the global scale, and the Mediterranean has been indicated among the regions most sensitive to climate change, also due to the increasing anthropogenic pressure. Model projections for the Mediterranean foresee further warming, droughts, and long-lasting modifications.<br><br>IMPACTS: Regional climate changes impact health and ecosystems, creating new risks, determined not only by weather events, but also by changing exposures and vulnerabilities. These issues, and in particular those regarding occupational safety, have not been sufficiently addressed to date.}, }
@article {pmid27698290, year = {2016}, author = {D'Ovidio, MC and Grandi, C and Marchetti, E and Polichetti, A and Iavicoli, S}, title = {Climate change and occupational health. Preface.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {323-324}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_16_03_03}, pmid = {27698290}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; Occupational Exposure ; Occupational Health/*trends ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid27697320, year = {2016}, author = {Saul, R and Barnes, R and Elliott, M}, title = {Is climate change an unforeseen, irresistible and external factor - A force majeure in marine environmental law?.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {113}, number = {1-2}, pages = {25-35}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.06.074}, pmid = {27697320}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Policy ; European Union ; Oceans and Seas ; Water Pollution/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {Several environmental laws include provisions on natural causes or force majeure, which except States from their commitments if it can be proven that the failure to meet the commitment is due to factors outside their control. The European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) has a pivotal role in managing EU marine waters. This paper analyses natural causes and force majeure provisions of the MFSD and other marine legislation, and addresses their interaction with climate change and its consequences, especially the effect on the obligation of ensuring seas are in Good Environmental Status. Climate change is an exogenic unmanaged pressure in that it emanates from outside the area being managed but in which the management authority has to respond to the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and temperature elevation, rather than its causes. It is suggested that a defence by a Member State of force majeure may be accepted if an event was proven to be due to an externality of control, irresistible and unforeseeable. The analysis contends that countering such a legal defence would centre on the fact that climate change is a well-accepted phenomenon, is foreseen with an accepted level of confidence and probability and is due to human actions. However, as yet, this has not been legally tested.}, }
@article {pmid27696381, year = {2017}, author = {Andersen, LK and Davis, MD}, title = {Climate change and the epidemiology of selected tick-borne and mosquito-borne diseases: update from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Task Force.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {56}, number = {3}, pages = {252-259}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.13438}, pmid = {27696381}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Alphavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology ; Mosquito Vectors ; Tick-Borne Diseases/*epidemiology ; West Nile Fever/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change refers to variation in the climate of a specific region or globally over time. A change has been reported in the epidemiology of tick- and mosquito-borne diseases in recent decades. Investigators have postulated that this effect may be associated with climate change. We reviewed the English-language literature describing changes in the epidemiology of specific tick- and mosquito-borne diseases, including the tick-borne diseases of Lyme disease, tularemia, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Mediterranean spotted fever, and Rocky Mountain spotted fever and the mosquito-borne diseases of dengue, malaria, West Nile virus infection, Ross River virus disease, and Barmah Forest virus disease. We postulate that the changing epidemiology of tick- and mosquito-borne diseases is related to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27695814, year = {2016}, author = {Andy Cole, N and Radcliff, S and DeVries, TJ and Rotz, A and Ely, DG and Cardoso, F}, title = {Production, Management, and Environment Symposium: Environmental footprint of livestock production - Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of animal science}, volume = {94}, number = {8}, pages = {3137-3138}, doi = {10.2527/jas.2016-0602}, pmid = {27695814}, issn = {1525-3163}, }
@article {pmid27695522, year = {2016}, author = {Kelly, MW and DeBiasse, MB and Villela, VA and Roberts, HL and Cecola, CF}, title = {Adaptation to climate change: trade-offs among responses to multiple stressors in an intertidal crustacean.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {1147-1155}, pmid = {27695522}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Trade-offs may influence both physiological and evolutionary responses to co-occurring stressors, but their effects on both plastic and adaptive responses to climate change are poorly understood. To test for genetic and physiological trade-offs incurred in tolerating multiple stressors, we hybridized two populations of the intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus that were divergent for both heat and salinity tolerance. Starting in the F2 generation, we selected for increased tolerance of heat, low salinity, and high salinity in replicate lines. After five generations of selection, heat-selected lines had greater heat tolerance but lower fecundity, indicating an energetic cost to tolerance. Lines selected for increased salinity tolerance did not show evidence of adaptation to their respective environments; however, hypo-osmotic selection lines showed substantial loss of tolerance to hyperosmotic stress. Neither of the salinity selection regimes resulted in diminished heat tolerance at ambient salinity; however, simultaneous exposure to heat and hypo-osmotic stress led to decreased heat tolerance, implying a physiological trade-off in tolerance to the two stressors. When we quantified the transcriptomic response to heat and salinity stress via RNA sequencing, we observed little overlap in the stress responses, suggesting the observed synergistic effects of heat and salinity stress were driven by competing energetic demands, rather than shared stress response pathways.}, }
@article {pmid27695107, year = {2016}, author = {Samy, AM and Elaagip, AH and Kenawy, MA and Ayres, CF and Peterson, AT and Soliman, DE}, title = {Climate Change Influences on the Global Potential Distribution of the Mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, Vector of West Nile Virus and Lymphatic Filariasis.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {e0163863}, pmid = {27695107}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Africa, Northern ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Culex/pathogenicity/*virology ; Europe ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/pathogenicity/*virology ; Saudi Arabia ; United States ; West Nile Fever/*epidemiology/transmission/virology ; West Nile virus/pathogenicity ; Zika Virus/pathogenicity ; Zika Virus Infection/*epidemiology/transmission/virology ; }, abstract = {Rapid emergence of most vector-borne diseases (VBDs) may be associated with range expansion of vector populations. Culex quinquefasciatus Say 1823 is a potential vector of West Nile virus, Saint Louis encephalitis virus, and lymphatic filariasis. We estimated the potential distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus under both current and future climate conditions. The present potential distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus showed high suitability across low-latitude parts of the world, reflecting the current distribution of the species. Suitable conditions were identified also in narrow zones of North Africa and Western Europe. Model transfers to future conditions showed a potential distribution similar to that under present-day conditions, although with higher suitability in southern Australia. Highest stability with changing climate was between 30°S and 30°N. The areas present high agreement among diverse climate models as regards distributional potential in the future, but differed in anticipating potential for distribution in North and Central Africa, southern Asia, central USA, and southeastern Europe. Highest disparity in model predictions across representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was in Saudi Arabia and Europe. The model predictions allow anticipation of changing distributional potential of the species in coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid27692330, year = {2016}, author = {Haydock, LAJ and Pomroy, WE and Stevenson, MA and Lawrence, KE}, title = {A growing degree-day model for determination of Fasciola hepatica infection risk in New Zealand with future predictions using climate change models.}, journal = {Veterinary parasitology}, volume = {228}, number = {}, pages = {52-59}, doi = {10.1016/j.vetpar.2016.05.033}, pmid = {27692330}, issn = {1873-2550}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Fasciola hepatica/*isolation &amp; purification ; Fascioliasis/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Geography ; *Models, Theoretical ; New Zealand/epidemiology ; Risk ; Ruminants ; Sheep ; Sheep Diseases/*epidemiology/parasitology ; }, abstract = {Infections of ruminants with Fasciola hepatica are considered to be of regional importance within New Zealand but there is very little recent information on its prevalence or severity other than anecdotal reports. Generally they are considered to be of secondary importance compared to gastrointestinal nematode infections. Utilizing data from Virtual Climate Stations (n=11491) distributed on a 5km grid around New Zealand a growing degree-day model was used to describe the risk of infection with liver fluke from 1972 to 2012 and then to apply the predictions to estimate the risk of fluke infections within New Zealand for the years 2040 and 2090. The growing degree-day model was validated against the most recent survey of infection within New Zealand in 1984. A strong positive linear relationship for 1984 between F. hepatica prevalence in lambs and infection risk (p<0.001; R[2]=0.71) was found indicating the model was effective for New Zealand. A linear regression for risk values from 14 regions in New Zealand for 1972-2012 did not show any discernible change in risk of infection over this time period (p>0.05). Post-hoc comparisons indicate the risk in Westland was found to be substantially higher (p<0.05) than all other regions with Northland ranked second highest. Notable predicted changes in F. hepatica infection risk in 2040 and 2090 were detected although they did vary between different climate change scenarios. The highest average percentage changes in infection risk were found in regions with low initial risk values such as Canterbury and Otago; in these regions 2090 infection risk is expected to rise by an average of 186% and 184%, respectively. Despite the already high levels of infection risk in Westland, values are expected to rise by a further 76% by 2090. The model does show some areas with little change with Taranaki predicted to experience only very minor increases in infection risk with average 2040 and 2090 predicted changes of 0% and 29%, respectively. Overall, these results suggest the significance of F. hepatica in New Zealand farming systems is probably underestimated and that this risk will generally increase with global warming following climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27689449, year = {2016}, author = {Tong, S and Confalonieri, U and Ebi, K and Olsen, J}, title = {Managing and Mitigating the Health Risks of Climate Change: Calling for Evidence-Informed Policy and Action.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {124}, number = {10}, pages = {A176-A179}, pmid = {27689449}, issn = {1552-9924}, abstract = {Climate change affects many natural and social systems and processes that are essential for life. It disrupts the Earth’s life-support systems that underpin the world’s capacity to supply adequate food and fresh water, and it disturbs the eco-physical buffering against natural disasters. Epidemiologists need to develop and improve research and monitoring programs to better understand the scale and immediacy of the threat of climate change to human health and to act within a much larger and more comprehensive framework. To address one of the greatest environmental issues of our lifetime, the scientific and policy-making communities should work together to formulate evidence-informed public policy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to its inevitable impacts in this generation and, more importantly, in future generations to come.}, }
@article {pmid27689354, year = {2016}, author = {Ranjitkar, S and Sujakhu, NM and Merz, J and Kindt, R and Xu, J and Matin, MA and Ali, M and Zomer, RJ}, title = {Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {e0163916}, pmid = {27689354}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {The Government of Nepal has identified opportunities in agricultural commercialization, responding to a growing internal demand and expansion of export markets to reduce the immense trade deficit. Several cash crops, including coffee and bananas, have been identified in the recently approved Agriculture Development Strategy. Both of these crops have encouraged smallholder farmers to convert their subsistence farming practices to more commercial cultivation. Identification of suitable agro-ecological zones and understanding climate-related issues are important for improved production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Here, the suitability of coffee and banana crops is analyzed for different agro-ecological zones represented by Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS). Future shifts in these suitability zones are also predicted. Plantation sites in Nepal were geo-referenced and used as input in species distribution modelling. The multi-model ensemble model suggests that climate change will reduce the suitable growing area for coffee by about 72% across the selected emission scenarios from now to 2050. Impacts are low for banana growing, with a reduction in suitability by about 16% by 2050. Bananas show a lot of potential for playing an important role in Nepal as a sustainable crop in the context of climate change, as this study indicates that the amount of area suited to banana growing will grow by 40% by 2050. Based on our analysis we recommend possible new locations for coffee plantations and one method for mitigating climate change-related problems on existing plantations. These findings are expected to support planning and policy dialogue for mitigation and support better informed and scientifically based decision-making relating to these two crops.}, }
@article {pmid27685981, year = {2017}, author = {Santangeli, A and Rajasärkkä, A and Lehikoinen, A}, title = {Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {2241-2249}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13518}, pmid = {27685981}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Birds ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Finland ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late.}, }
@article {pmid27681327, year = {2016}, author = {Mweya, CN and Kimera, SI and Stanley, G and Misinzo, G and Mboera, LE}, title = {Climate Change Influences Potential Distribution of Infected Aedes aegypti Co-Occurrence with Dengue Epidemics Risk Areas in Tanzania.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {e0162649}, pmid = {27681327}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue is the second most important vector-borne disease of humans globally after malaria. Incidence of dengue infections has dramatically increased recently, potentially due to changing climate. Climate projections models predict increases in average annual temperature, precipitation and extreme events in the future. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of changing climate on distribution of dengue vectors in relation to epidemic risk areas in Tanzania.<br><br>METHODS/FINDINGS: We used ecological niche models that incorporated presence-only infected Aedes aegypti data co-occurrence with dengue virus to estimate potential distribution of epidemic risk areas. Model input data on infected Ae. aegypti was collected during the May to June 2014 epidemic in Dar es Salaam. Bioclimatic predictors for current and future projections were also used as model inputs. Model predictions indicated that habitat suitability for infected Ae. aegypti co-occurrence with dengue virus in current scenarios is highly localized in the coastal areas, including Dar es Salaam, Pwani, Morogoro, Tanga and Zanzibar. Models indicate that areas of Kigoma, Ruvuma, Lindi, and those around Lake Victoria are also at risk. Projecting to 2020, we show that risk emerges in Mara, Arusha, Kagera and Manyara regions, but disappears in parts of Morogoro, Ruvuma and near Lake Nyasa. In 2050 climate scenario, the predicted habitat suitability of infected Ae. aegypti co-occurrence with dengue shifted towards the central and north-eastern parts with intensification in areas around all major lakes. Generally, model findings indicated that the coastal regions would remain at high risk for dengue epidemic through 2050.<br><br>CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Models incorporating climate change scenarios to predict emerging risk areas for dengue epidemics in Tanzania show that the anticipated risk is immense and results help guiding public health policy decisions on surveillance and control of dengue epidemics. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt control and prevention strategies.}, }
@article {pmid27679837, year = {2016}, author = {Ford, JD and Tilleard, SE and Berrang-Ford, L and Araos, M and Biesbroek, R and Lesnikowski, AC and MacDonald, GK and Hsu, A and Chen, C and Bizikova, L}, title = {Opinion: Big data has big potential for applications to climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {39}, pages = {10729-10732}, pmid = {27679837}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid27677813, year = {2016}, author = {Cang, FA and Wilson, AA and Wiens, JJ}, title = {Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {27677813}, issn = {1744-957X}, abstract = {Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity, especially if species cannot adapt to changing climatic conditions quickly enough. A critical question is how quickly climatic niches change, and if this speed is sufficient to prevent extinction as climates warm. Here, we address this question in the grass family (Poaceae). Grasses are fundamental to one of Earth's most widespread biomes (grasslands), and provide roughly half of all calories consumed by humans (including wheat, rice, corn and sorghum). We estimate rates of climatic niche change in 236 species and compare these with rates of projected climate change by 2070. Our results show that projected climate change is consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. Although these results do not show directly what will happen under global warming, they have troubling implications for a major biome and for human food resources.}, }
@article {pmid27670975, year = {2016}, author = {Huai, J}, title = {Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {33744}, pmid = {27670975}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an "integrative typology" of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the "5W1H" questions: "Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?" Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978-1999, I answer the "5W1H" questions through establishing the "six typologies" framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology.}, }
@article {pmid27667778, year = {2016}, author = {Sinclair, BJ and Marshall, KE and Sewell, MA and Levesque, DL and Willett, CS and Slotsbo, S and Dong, Y and Harley, CD and Marshall, DJ and Helmuth, BS and Huey, RB}, title = {Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {19}, number = {11}, pages = {1372-1385}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12686}, pmid = {27667778}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Models, Biological ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (Tb) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key - but often biologically unreasonable - assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced Tb. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage-specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with Tb , to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27666428, year = {2016}, author = {Fletcher, N}, title = {Climate change in cardiothoracic intensive care.}, journal = {Anaesthesia}, volume = {71}, number = {12}, pages = {1395-1398}, doi = {10.1111/anae.13646}, pmid = {27666428}, issn = {1365-2044}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Critical Care ; Humans ; Intensive Care Units ; }, }
@article {pmid27665446, year = {2017}, author = {Jude, SR and Drew, GH and Pollard, SJT and Rocks, SA and Jenkinson, K and Lamb, R}, title = {Delivering organisational adaptation through legislative mechanisms: Evidence from the Adaptation Reporting Power (Climate Change Act 2008).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {574}, number = {}, pages = {858-871}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.104}, pmid = {27665446}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {There is increasing recognition that organisations, particularly in key infrastructure sectors, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, and require organisational responses to ensure they are resilient and adaptive. However, detailed evidence of how adaptation is facilitated, implemented and reported, particularly through legislative mechanisms is lacking. The United Kingdom Climate Change Act (2008), introduced the Adaptation Reporting Power, enabling the Government to direct so-called reporting authorities to report their climate change risks and adaptation plans. We describe the authors' unique role and experience supporting the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) during the Adaptation Reporting Power's first round. An evaluation framework, used to review the adaptation reports, is presented alongside evidence on how the process provides new insights into adaptation activities and triggered organisational change in 78% of reporting authorities, including the embedding of climate risk and adaptation issues. The role of legislative mechanisms and risk-based approaches in driving and delivering adaptation is discussed alongside future research needs, including the development of organisational maturity models to determine resilient and well adapting organisations. The Adaptation Reporting Power process provides a basis for similar initiatives in other countries, although a clear engagement strategy to ensure buy-in to the process and research on its long-term legacy, including the potential merits of voluntary approaches, is required.}, }
@article {pmid27665444, year = {2017}, author = {Dovie, DBK and Dzodzomenyo, M and Ogunseitan, OA}, title = {Sensitivity of health sector indicators' response to climate change in Ghana.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {574}, number = {}, pages = {837-846}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.066}, pmid = {27665444}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Ghana ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {There is accumulating evidence that the emerging burden of global climate change threatens the fidelity of routine indicators for disease detection and management of risks to public health. The threat partially reflects the conservative character of the health sector and the reluctance to adopt new indicators, despite the growing awareness that existing environmental health indicators were developed to respond to risks that may no longer be relevant, and are too simplistic to also act as indicators for newer global-scale risk factors. This study sought to understand the scope of existing health indicators, while aiming to discover new indicators for building resilience against three climate sensitive diseases (cerebro spinal meningitis, malaria and diarrhea). Therefore, new potential indicators derived from human and biophysical origins were developed to complement existing health indicators, thereby creating climate-sensitive battery of robust composite indices of resilience in health planning. Using Ghana's health sector as a case study systematic international literature review, national expert consultation, and focus group outcomes yielded insights into the relevance, sensitivity and impacts of 45 indicators in 11 categories in responding to climate change. In total, 65% of the indicators were sensitive to health impacts of climate change; 24% acted directly; 31% synergistically; and 45% indirectly, with indicator relevance strongly associated with type of health response. Epidemiological indicators (e.g. morbidity) and health demographic indicators (e.g. population structure) require adjustments with external indicators (e.g. biophysical, policy) to be resilient to climate change. Therefore, selective integration of social and ecological indicators with existing public health indicators improves the fidelity of the health sector to adopt more robust planning of interdependent systems to build resilience. The study highlights growing uncertainties in translating research into protective policies when new indicators associated with non-health sources are needed to complement existing health indicators that are expected to respond to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27665118, year = {2016}, author = {Puppim de Oliveira, JA and Doll, CN}, title = {Governance and networks for health co-benefits of climate change mitigation: Lessons from two Indian cities.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {97}, number = {}, pages = {146-154}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2016.08.020}, pmid = {27665118}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Cities ; Climate Change ; Environment ; *Environmental Health ; Government ; Humans ; Policy Making ; *Public Health ; Research ; *Urban Health ; }, abstract = {Health has been the main driver for many urban environmental interventions, particularly in cases of significant health problems linked to poor urban environmental conditions. This paper examines empirically the links between climate change mitigation and health in urban areas, when health is the main driver for improvements. The paper aims to understand how systems of urban governance can enable or prevent the creation of health outcomes via continuous improvements in the environmental conditions in a city. The research draws on cases from two Indian cities where initiatives were undertaken in different sectors: Surat (waste) and Delhi (transportation). Using the literature on network effectiveness as an analytical framework, the paper compares the cases to identify the possible ways to strengthen the governance and policy making process in the urban system so that each intervention can intentionally realize multiple impacts for both local health and climate change mitigation in the long term as well as factors that may pose a threat to long-term progress and revert back to the previous situation after initial achievements.}, }
@article {pmid27661983, year = {2016}, author = {Jiang, H and Liu, T and Li, L and Zhao, Y and Pei, L and Zhao, J}, title = {Predicting the Potential Distribution of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under Climate Change in China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {e0163718}, pmid = {27661983}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {Global warming has created opportunities and challenges for the survival and development of species. Determining how climate change may impact multiple ecosystem levels and lead to various species adaptations is necessary for both biodiversity conservation and sustainable biological resource utilization. In this study, we employed Maxent to predict changes in the habitat range and altitude of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under current and future climate scenarios in China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The model inputs included 732 presence points and nine sets of environmental variables under the current conditions and the four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. All of the AUCs were greater than 0.80, thereby placing these models in the "very good" category. Using a jackknife analysis, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and altitude were found to be the top three variables that affect the range of P. tenuifolia. Additionally, we found that the predicted highly suitable habitat was in reasonable agreement with its actual distribution. Furthermore, the highly suitable habitat area was slowly reduced over time.}, }
@article {pmid27660480, year = {2017}, author = {Li, MW and Xin, D and Gao, Y and Li, KP and Fan, K and Muñoz, NB and Yung, WS and Lam, HM}, title = {Using genomic information to improve soybean adaptability to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {68}, number = {8}, pages = {1823-1834}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erw348}, pmid = {27660480}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/genetics/physiology ; Dehydration/*genetics ; Droughts ; Floods ; Genomics ; Plant Breeding/*methods ; Quantitative Trait Loci ; Salinity ; *Selection, Genetic ; Glycine max/*genetics/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has brought severe challenges to agriculture. It is anticipated that there will be a drop in crop yield - including that of soybean - due to climatic stress factors that include drastic fluctuations in temperature, drought, flooding and high salinity. Genomic information on soybean has been accumulating rapidly since initial publication of its reference genome, providing a valuable tool for the improvement of cultivated soybean. Not only are many molecular markers that are associated with important quantitative trait loci now identified, but we also have a more detailed picture of the genomic variations among soybean germplasms, enabling us to utilize these as tools to assist crop breeding. In this review, we will summarize and discuss the currently available soybean genomic approaches, including whole-genome sequencing, sequencing-based genotyping, functional genomics, proteomics, and epigenomics. The information uncovered through these techniques will help further pinpoint important gene candidates and genomic loci associated with adaptive traits, as well as achieving a better understanding of how soybeans cope with the changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid27658406, year = {2016}, author = {Chen, Z and Chen, F and Zhang, H and Liu, S}, title = {Effects of nitrogen application rates on net annual global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in double-rice cropping systems of the Southern China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {23}, number = {24}, pages = {24781-24795}, pmid = {27658406}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; Ecosystem ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrogen/chemistry/*metabolism ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The net global warming potential (NGWP) and net greenhouse gas intensity (NGHGI) of double-rice cropping systems are not well documented. We measured the NGWP and NGHGI including soil organic carbon (SOC) change and indirect emissions (IE) from double-crop rice fields with fertilizing systems in Southern China. These experiments with three different nitrogen (N) application rates since 2012 are as follows: 165 kgN ha[-1] for early rice and 225 kgN ha[-1] for late rice (N1), which was the local N application rates as the control; 135 kgN ha[-1] for early rice and 180 kgN ha[-1] for late rice (N2, 20 % reduction); and 105 kgN ha[-1] for early rice and 135 kgN ha[-1] for late rice (N3, 40 % reduction). Results showed that yields increased with the increase of N application rate, but without significant difference between N1 and N2 plots. Annual SOC sequestration rate under N1 was estimated to be 1.15 MgC ha[-1] year[-1], which was higher than those under other fertilizing systems. Higher N application tended to increase CH4 emissions during the flooded rice season and significantly increased N2O emissions from drained soils during the nonrice season, ranking as N1 > N2 > N3 with significant difference (P < 0.05). Two-year average IE has a huge contribution to GHG emissions mainly coming from the higher N inputs in the double-rice cropping system. Reducing N fertilizer usage can effectively decrease the NGWP and NGHGI in the double-rice cropping system, with the lowest NGHGI obtained in the N2 plot (0.99 kg CO2-eq kg[-1] yield year[-1]). The results suggested that agricultural economic viability and GHG mitigation can be simultaneously achieved by properly reducing N fertilizer application in double-rice cropping systems.}, }
@article {pmid27657098, year = {2016}, author = {Workman, A and Blashki, G and Karoly, D and Wiseman, J}, title = {The Role of Health Co-Benefits in the Development of Australian Climate Change Mitigation Policies.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {27657098}, issn = {1660-4601}, abstract = {Reducing domestic carbon dioxide and other associated emissions can lead to short-term, localized health benefits. Quantifying and incorporating these health co-benefits into the development of national climate change mitigation policies may facilitate the adoption of stronger policies. There is, however, a dearth of research exploring the role of health co-benefits on the development of such policies. To address this knowledge gap, research was conducted in Australia involving the analysis of several data sources, including interviews carried out with Australian federal government employees directly involved in the development of mitigation policies. The resulting case study determined that, in Australia, health co-benefits play a minimal role in the development of climate change mitigation policies. Several factors influence the extent to which health co-benefits inform the development of mitigation policies. Understanding these factors may help to increase the political utility of future health co-benefits studies.}, }
@article {pmid27655765, year = {2016}, author = {Tomotani, BM and Gienapp, P and Beersma, DG and Visser, ME}, title = {Climate change relaxes the time constraints for late-born offspring in a long-distance migrant.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {283}, number = {1839}, pages = {}, pmid = {27655765}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Female ; *Passeriformes ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Animals in seasonal environments need to fit their annual-cycle stages, such as moult and migration, in a tight schedule. Climate change affects the phenology of organisms and causes advancements in timing of these annual-cycle stages but not necessarily at the same rates. For migratory birds, this can lead to more severe or more relaxed time constraints in the time from fledging to migration, depending on the relative shifts of the different stages. We tested how a shift in hatch date, which has advanced due to climate change, impacts the organization of the birds' whole annual cycle. We experimentally advanced and delayed the hatch date of pied flycatcher chicks in the field and then measured the timing of their annual-cycle stages in a controlled laboratory environment. Hatch date affected the timing of moult and pre-migratory fattening, but not migration. Early-born birds hence had a longer time to fatten up than late-born ones; the latter reduced their interval between onset of fattening and migration to be able to migrate at the same time as the early-born birds. This difference in time constraints for early- and late-born individuals may explain why early-born offspring have a higher probability to recruit as a breeding bird. Climate change-associated advancements of avian egg-lay dates, which in turn advances hatch dates, can thus reduce the negative fitness consequences of reproducing late, thereby reducing the selection for early egg-laying migratory birds.}, }
@article {pmid27654004, year = {2017}, author = {Bayram, H and Bauer, AK and Abdalati, W and Carlsten, C and Pinkerton, KE and Thurston, GD and Balmes, JR and Takaro, TK}, title = {Environment, Global Climate Change, and Cardiopulmonary Health.}, journal = {American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine}, volume = {195}, number = {6}, pages = {718-724}, pmid = {27654004}, issn = {1535-4970}, support = {P30 ES000260/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P51 OD011107/OD/NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Environment ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Global Health ; Heart Diseases/epidemiology/*etiology ; Humans ; Lung Diseases/epidemiology/*etiology ; Morbidity ; }, }
@article {pmid27652535, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {Climate-change ecology: Australian tree range threatened.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {537}, number = {7621}, pages = {453}, doi = {10.1038/537453d}, pmid = {27652535}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid27650480, year = {2017}, author = {Ralston, J and DeLuca, WV and Feldman, RE and King, DI}, title = {Population trends influence species ability to track climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {4}, pages = {1390-1399}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13478}, pmid = {27650480}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species' realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species' ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27647008, year = {2016}, author = {Bouhours, J and Lewis, MA}, title = {Climate Change and Integrodifference Equations in a Stochastic Environment.}, journal = {Bulletin of mathematical biology}, volume = {78}, number = {9}, pages = {1866-1903}, doi = {10.1007/s11538-016-0203-z}, pmid = {27647008}, issn = {1522-9602}, mesh = {Animals ; Butterflies ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Global Warming/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Mathematical Concepts ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Stochastic Processes ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts population distributions, forcing some species to migrate poleward if they are to survive and keep up with the suitable habitat that is shifting with the temperature isoclines. Previous studies have analysed whether populations have the capacity to keep up with shifting temperature isoclines, and have mathematically determined the combination of growth and dispersal that is needed to achieve this. However, the rate of isocline movement can be highly variable, with much uncertainty associated with yearly shifts. The same is true for population growth rates. Growth rates can be variable and uncertain, even within suitable habitats for growth. In this paper, we reanalyse the question of population persistence in the context of the uncertainty and variability in isocline shifts and rates of growth. Specifically, we employ a stochastic integrodifference equation model on a patch of suitable habitat that shifts poleward at a random rate. We derive a metric describing the asymptotic growth rate of the linearised operator of the stochastic model. This metric yields a threshold criterion for population persistence. We demonstrate that the variability in the yearly shift and in the growth rate has a significant negative effect on the persistence in the sense that it decreases the threshold criterion for population persistence. Mathematically, we show how the persistence metric can be connected to the principal eigenvalue problem for a related integral operator, at least for the case where isocline shifting speed is deterministic. Analysis of dynamics for the case where the dispersal kernel is Gaussian leads to the existence of a critical shifting speed, above which the population will go extinct, and below which the population will persist. This leads to clear bounds on rate of environmental change if the population is to persist. Finally, we illustrate our different results for butterfly population using numerical simulations and demonstrate how increased variances in isocline shifts and growth rates translate into decreased likelihoods of persistence.}, }
@article {pmid27646707, year = {2016}, author = {Pugh, TA and Müller, C and Elliott, J and Deryng, D and Folberth, C and Olin, S and Schmid, E and Arneth, A}, title = {Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {12608}, pmid = {27646707}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.}, }
@article {pmid27642368, year = {2016}, author = {Reyes-García, V and Fernández-Llamazares, &#xc1; and Guèze, M and Garcés, A and Mallo, M and Vila-Gómez, M and Vilaseca, M}, title = {Local indicators of climate change: The potential contribution of local knowledge to climate research.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {109-124}, pmid = {27642368}, issn = {1757-7780}, support = {261971/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Local knowledge has been proposed as a place-based tool to ground-truth climate models and to narrow their geographic sensitivity. To assess the potential role of local knowledge in our quest to understand better climate change and its impacts, we first need to critically review the strengths and weaknesses of local knowledge of climate change and the potential complementarity with scientific knowledge. With this aim, we conducted a systematic, quantitative meta-analysis of published peer-reviewed documents reporting local indicators of climate change (including both local observations of climate change and observed impacts on the biophysical and the social systems). Overall, primary data on the topic are not abundant, the methodological development is incipient, and the geographical extent is unbalanced. On the 98 case studies documented, we recorded the mention of 746 local indicators of climate change, mostly corresponding to local observations of climate change (40%), but also to observed impacts on the physical (23%), the biological (19%), and the socioeconomic (18%) systems. Our results suggest that, even if local observations of climate change are the most frequently reported type of change, the rich and fine-grained knowledge in relation to impacts on biophysical systems could provide more original contributions to our understanding of climate change at local scale.}, }
@article {pmid27638214, year = {2016}, author = {Nobre, CA and Sampaio, G and Borma, LS and Castilla-Rubio, JC and Silva, JS and Cardoso, M}, title = {Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {39}, pages = {10759-10768}, pmid = {27638214}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forests ; Geography ; Gross Domestic Product ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Internationality ; Plant Transpiration/physiology ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {For half a century, the process of economic integration of the Amazon has been based on intensive use of renewable and nonrenewable natural resources, which has brought significant basin-wide environmental alterations. The rural development in the Amazonia pushed the agricultural frontier swiftly, resulting in widespread land-cover change, but agriculture in the Amazon has been of low productivity and unsustainable. The loss of biodiversity and continued deforestation will lead to high risks of irreversible change of its tropical forests. It has been established by modeling studies that the Amazon may have two "tipping points," namely, temperature increase of 4 °C or deforestation exceeding 40% of the forest area. If transgressed, large-scale "savannization" of mostly southern and eastern Amazon may take place. The region has warmed about 1 °C over the last 60 y, and total deforestation is reaching 20% of the forested area. The recent significant reductions in deforestation-80% reduction in the Brazilian Amazon in the last decade-opens up opportunities for a novel sustainable development paradigm for the future of the Amazon. We argue for a new development paradigm-away from only attempting to reconcile maximizing conservation versus intensification of traditional agriculture and expansion of hydropower capacity-in which we research, develop, and scale a high-tech innovation approach that sees the Amazon as a global public good of biological assets that can enable the creation of innovative high-value products, services, and platforms through combining advanced digital, biological, and material technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution in progress.}, }
@article {pmid27630608, year = {2016}, author = {Amelung, D and Fischer, H and Kruse, L and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Defogging Climate Change Communication: How Cognitive Research Can Promote Effective Climate Communication.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {1340}, pmid = {27630608}, issn = {1664-1078}, }
@article {pmid27627688, year = {2017}, author = {Wright, RF and Couture, RM and Christiansen, AB and Guerrero, JL and Kaste, &#xd8; and Barlaup, BT}, title = {Effects of multiple stresses hydropower, acid deposition and climate change on water chemistry and salmon populations in the River Otra, Norway.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {574}, number = {}, pages = {128-138}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.044}, pmid = {27627688}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Acids/analysis ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Norway ; *Renewable Energy ; Rivers/*chemistry ; *Salmon ; }, abstract = {Many surface waters in Europe suffer from the adverse effects of multiple stresses. The Otra River, southernmost Norway, is impacted by acid deposition, hydropower development and increasingly by climate change. The river holds a unique population of land-locked salmon and anadromous salmon in the lower reaches. Both populations have been severely affected by acidification. The decrease in acid deposition since the 1980s has led to partial recovery of both populations. Climate change with higher temperatures and altered precipitation can potentially further impact fish populations. We used a linked set of process-oriented models to simulate future climate, discharge, and water chemistry at five sub-catchments in the Otra river basin. Projections to year 2100 indicate that future climate change will give a small but measureable improvement in water quality, but that additional reductions in acid deposition are needed to promote full restoration of the fish communities. These results can help guide management decisions to sustain key salmon habitats and carry out effective long-term mitigation strategies such as liming. The Otra River is typical of many rivers in Europe in that it fails to achieve the good ecological status target of the EU Water Framework Directive. The programme of measures needed in the river basin management plan necessarily must consider the multiple stressors of acid deposition, hydropower, and climate change. This is difficult, however, as the synergistic and antagonistic effects are complex and challenging to address with modelling tools currently available.}, }
@article {pmid27627305, year = {2016}, author = {Drótos, G and Bódai, T and Tél, T}, title = {Quantifying nonergodicity in nonautonomous dissipative dynamical systems: An application to climate change.}, journal = {Physical review. E}, volume = {94}, number = {2-1}, pages = {022214}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevE.94.022214}, pmid = {27627305}, issn = {2470-0053}, abstract = {In nonautonomous dynamical systems, like in climate dynamics, an ensemble of trajectories initiated in the remote past defines a unique probability distribution, the natural measure of a snapshot attractor, for any instant of time, but this distribution typically changes in time. In cases with an aperiodic driving, temporal averages taken along a single trajectory would differ from the corresponding ensemble averages even in the infinite-time limit: ergodicity does not hold. It is worth considering this difference, which we call the nonergodic mismatch, by taking time windows of finite length for temporal averaging. We point out that the probability distribution of the nonergodic mismatch is qualitatively different in ergodic and nonergodic cases: its average is zero and typically nonzero, respectively. A main conclusion is that the difference of the average from zero, which we call the bias, is a useful measure of nonergodicity, for any window length. In contrast, the standard deviation of the nonergodic mismatch, which characterizes the spread between different realizations, exhibits a power-law decrease with increasing window length in both ergodic and nonergodic cases, and this implies that temporal and ensemble averages differ in dynamical systems with finite window lengths. It is the average modulus of the nonergodic mismatch, which we call the ergodicity deficit, that represents the expected deviation from fulfilling the equality of temporal and ensemble averages. As an important finding, we demonstrate that the ergodicity deficit cannot be reduced arbitrarily in nonergodic systems. We illustrate via a conceptual climate model that the nonergodic framework may be useful in Earth system dynamics, within which we propose the measure of nonergodicity, i.e., the bias, as an order-parameter-like quantifier of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27626347, year = {2016}, author = {Moulton, AD}, title = {Toward a National Climate Change Health Coalition.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {106}, number = {10}, pages = {1763-1764}, doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2016.303331}, pmid = {27626347}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Greenhouse Gases ; Health Care Coalitions/*organization &amp; administration ; Health Planning/organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid27625660, year = {2016}, author = {Sultan, B and Gaetani, M}, title = {Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {1262}, pmid = {27625660}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid27621443, year = {2016}, author = {Aguilée, R and Raoul, G and Rousset, F and Ronce, O}, title = {Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {39}, pages = {E5741-8}, pmid = {27621443}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; *Geography ; Models, Biological ; Phenotype ; Pollen/*physiology ; Population Density ; Seed Dispersal/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27618445, year = {2016}, author = {Zanin, M and Mangabeira Albernaz, AL}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {e0162500}, pmid = {27618445}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plants ; South America ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map's coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions.}, }
@article {pmid27618121, year = {2016}, author = {Boeckmann, M and Zeeb, H}, title = {Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework.}, journal = {Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {27618121}, issn = {2227-9032}, abstract = {Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers.}, }
@article {pmid27618074, year = {2016}, author = {Austin, SE and Biesbroek, R and Berrang-Ford, L and Ford, JD and Parker, S and Fleury, MD}, title = {Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {13}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {27618074}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases ; Federal Government ; *Health Planning ; Heat Stress Disorders ; Humans ; Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development ; *Public Health ; Risk ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will-or should-include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation-cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning-and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning.}, }
@article {pmid27617189, year = {2016}, author = {Yang, YT and Sarfaty, M}, title = {Zika virus: A call to action for physicians in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Preventive medicine reports}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {444-446}, pmid = {27617189}, issn = {2211-3355}, abstract = {In February 2016, the World Health Organization declared the mosquito-borne Zika virus to be a "public health emergency of international concern" as the disease linked to thousands of birth defects in Brazil spreads rapidly. The distribution of the Aedes mosquitos has drastically increased over the past few decades, which have been the hottest decades on Earth in more than 1000 years based on climate proxy measures. Although a combination of factors explains the current Zika virus outbreak, it's highly likely that the changes in the climate contribute to the spread of Aedes vector carrying the Zika virus, the pathogen causing serious birth defects. Physicians, both individually and collectively, as trusted and educated members of society have critical roles to play. In addition to clinical management and prevention of Zika, physicians should communicate about the health benefits of addressing climate change in straightforward evidence-based language to their local communities and policymakers, and make clear their support for policies mitigating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27613292, year = {2015}, author = {Sojobi, AO and Balogun, II and Salami, AW}, title = {Climate change in Lagos state, Nigeria: what really changed?.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {188}, number = {10}, pages = {556}, pmid = {27613292}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Nigeria ; *Periodicity ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Our study revealed periodicities of 2.3 and 2.25 years in wet and dry seasons and periodicities of 2 to 5 years on seasonal and annual timescales. Minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and evaporation recorded increases of 2.47, 1.37 and 28.37 %, respectively, but a reduction of 19.58 % in rainfall on decadal timescale. Periodicity of 8 to 12 years was also observed in annual Tmax. Cramer's test indicated a warming trend with significant Tmax increase in February, April, July, August, October and November during 2000-2009 on decadal monthly timescale, a significant decline in Summer rainfall but significant Tmax increase in Spring, Autumn and Winter on decadal seasonal timescale. The low correlation of rainfall with temperature parameters and evaporation indicates that advection of moisture into Lagos State seems to be the dominant mechanism controlling rainfall within the State alongside other tropical and extra-tropical factors. In addition, our study revealed that the persistent state of minimum temperature often precedes the arrival and reversal of the phase of maximum temperature. Furthermore, our study also revealed that extreme and high variable rainfalls, which are associated with the increased warming trend, had periodicities of 1 to 3 years with a probability of 86.45 % of occurring every 3 years between April and September. It is recommended that government and private sector should give financial and technical supports to climate researches in order to appropriately inform policy making to improve the adaptive capacity and resilience of Lagos State against climate change impacts and guard against maladaptation.}, }
@article {pmid27611802, year = {2016}, author = {Hernández-Montilla, MC and Martínez-Morales, MA and Posada Vanegas, G and de Jong, BH}, title = {Assessment of Hammocks (Petenes) Resilience to Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change in Mexico.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {e0162637}, pmid = {27611802}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Geography ; Mexico ; *Oceans and Seas ; Plants ; }, abstract = {There is a pressing need to assess resilience of coastal ecosystems against sea level rise. To develop appropriate response strategies against future climate disturbances, it is important to estimate the magnitude of disturbances that these ecosystems can absorb and to better understand their underlying processes. Hammocks (petenes) coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to sea level rise linked to climate change; their vulnerability is mainly due to its close relation with the sea through underground drainage in predominantly karstic soils. Hammocks are biologically important because of their high diversity and restricted distribution. This study proposes a strategy to assess resilience of this coastal ecosystem when high-precision data are scarce. Approaches and methods used to derive ecological resilience maps of hammocks are described and assessed. Resilience models were built by incorporating and weighting appropriate indicators of persistence to assess hammocks resilience against flooding due to climate change at "Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve", in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. According to the analysis, 25% of the study area is highly resilient (hot spots), whereas 51% has low resilience (cold spots). The most significant hot spot clusters of resilience were located in areas distant to the coastal zone, with indirect tidal influence, and consisted mostly of hammocks surrounded by basin mangrove and floodplain forest. This study revealed that multi-criteria analysis and the use of GIS for qualitative, semi-quantitative and statistical spatial analyses constitute a powerful tool to develop ecological resilience maps of coastal ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, even when high-precision data are not available. This method can be applied in other sites to help develop resilience analyses and decision-making processes for management and conservation of coastal areas worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid27609987, year = {2016}, author = {Greenwood, O and Mossman, HL and Suggitt, AJ and Curtis, RJ and Maclean, IM}, title = {Using in situ management to conserve biodiversity under climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of applied ecology}, volume = {53}, number = {3}, pages = {885-894}, pmid = {27609987}, issn = {0021-8901}, abstract = {Successful conservation will increasingly depend on our ability to help species cope with climate change. While there has been much attention on accommodating or assisting range shifts, less has been given to the alternative strategy of helping species survive climate change through in situ management.Here we provide a synthesis of published evidence examining whether habitat management can be used to offset the adverse impacts on biodiversity of changes in temperature, water availability and sea-level rise. Our focus is on practical methods whereby the local environmental conditions experienced by organisms can be made more suitable.Many studies suggest that manipulating vegetation structure can alter the temperature and moisture conditions experienced by organisms, and several demonstrate that these altered conditions benefit species as regional climatic conditions become unsuitable. The effects of topography on local climatic conditions are even better understood, but the alteration of topography as a climate adaptation tool is not ingrained in conservation practice. Trials of topographic alteration in the field should therefore be a priority for future research.Coastal systems have the natural capacity to keep pace with climate change, but require sufficient sediment supplies and space for landward migration to do so. There is an extensive literature on managed realignment. While the underlying rationale is simple, successful implementation requires careful consideration of elevation and past land use. Even with careful management, restored habitats may not attain the physical and biological attributes of natural habitats. Synthesis and applications. The recent literature provides a compelling case that some of the adverse effects of climate change can be offset by appropriate management. However, much of the evidence for this is indirect and too few studies provide empirical tests of the long-term effectiveness of these management interventions. It is clear from the existing evidence that some techniques have a higher risk of failure or unexpected outcomes than others and managers will need to make careful choices about which to implement. We have assessed the strength of evidence of these approaches in order to demonstrate to conservation professionals the risks involved.}, }
@article {pmid27609898, year = {2016}, author = {Urban, MC and Bocedi, G and Hendry, AP and Mihoub, JB and Pe'er, G and Singer, A and Bridle, JR and Crozier, LG and De Meester, L and Godsoe, W and Gonzalez, A and Hellmann, JJ and Holt, RD and Huth, A and Johst, K and Krug, CB and Leadley, PW and Palmer, SC and Pantel, JH and Schmitz, A and Zollner, PA and Travis, JM}, title = {Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {353}, number = {6304}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1126/science.aad8466}, pmid = {27609898}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Culicidae/virology ; Dengue/transmission ; Earth, Planet ; *Models, Biological ; Models, Genetic ; Population Dynamics ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid27608297, year = {2017}, author = {Hansen, GJ and Read, JS and Hansen, JF and Winslow, LA}, title = {Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {4}, pages = {1463-1476}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13462}, pmid = {27608297}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bass ; *Climate Change ; Lakes ; *Perches ; Population Dynamics ; Wisconsin ; }, abstract = {Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake-specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake-specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33-75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27-60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.}, }
@article {pmid27604919, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {Climate change: Melting ice opens Arctic to shipping.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {537}, number = {7619}, pages = {141}, doi = {10.1038/537141e}, pmid = {27604919}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid27604917, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {Climate-change ecology: Trees flourish on the happy edge.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {537}, number = {7619}, pages = {140-141}, doi = {10.1038/537140d}, pmid = {27604917}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid27604755, year = {2016}, author = {Araya-Muñoz, D and Metzger, MJ and Stuart, N and Wilson, AMW and Alvarez, L}, title = {Assessing urban adaptive capacity to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {183}, number = {}, pages = {314-324}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.08.060}, pmid = {27604755}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Chile ; Cities ; City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Models, Theoretical ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Despite the growing number of studies focusing on urban vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, which is a key component of the IPCC definition of vulnerability, is rarely assessed quantitatively. We examine the capacity of adaptation in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy modelling was developed to standardise and aggregate, through a stepwise approach, seventeen indicators derived from widely available census statistical data into an adaptive capacity index. The results indicate that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of adaptive capacity between 1992 and 2002. However, the relative differences between municipalities did not change significantly over the studied timeframe. Fuzzy overlay allowed us to standardise and to effectively aggregate indicators with differing ranges and granularities of attribute values into an overall index. It also provided a conceptually sound and reproducible means of exploring the interplay of many indicators that individually influence adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it captured the complex, aggregated and continued nature of the adaptive capacity, favouring to deal with gaps of data and knowledge associated with the concept of adaptive capacity. The resulting maps can help identify municipalities where adaptive capacity is weak and identify which components of adaptive capacity need strengthening. Identification of these capacity conditions can stimulate dialogue amongst policymakers and stakeholders regarding how to manage urban areas and how to prioritise resources for urban development in ways that can also improve adaptive capacity and thus reduce vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27604549, year = {2016}, author = {Kreslake, JM and Price, KM and Sarfaty, M}, title = {Developing effective communication materials on the health effects of climate change for vulnerable groups: a mixed methods study.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {946}, pmid = {27604549}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Chronic Disease/*psychology ; *Climate Change ; Educational Status ; Female ; Health Behavior ; Health Communication/*methods ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Income ; Intention ; Linear Models ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Qualitative Research ; Social Class ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Vulnerable Populations/*psychology ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Individuals with chronic health conditions or low socioeconomic status (SES) are more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. Health communication can provide information on the management of these impacts. This study tested, among vulnerable audiences, whether viewing targeted materials increases knowledge about the health impacts of climate change and strength of climate change beliefs, and whether each are associated with stronger intentions to practice recommended behaviors.<br><br>METHODS: Low-SES respondents with chronic conditions were recruited for an online survey in six cities. Respondents were shown targeted materials illustrating the relationship between climate change and chronic conditions. Changes in knowledge and climate change beliefs (pre- and post-test) and behavioral intentions (post-test only) were tested using McNemar tests of marginal frequencies of two binary outcomes or paired t-tests, and multivariable linear regression. Qualitative interviews were conducted among target audiences to triangulate survey findings and make recommendations on the design of messages.<br><br>RESULTS: Respondents (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;122) reflected the target population regarding income, educational level and prevalence of household health conditions. (1) Knowledge. Significant increases in knowledge were found regarding: groups that are most vulnerable to heat (children [p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001], individuals with heart disease [p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001], or lung disease [p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.019]); and environmental conditions that increase allergy-producing pollen (increased heat [p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.003], increased carbon dioxide [p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001]). (2) Strength of certainty that climate change is happening increased significantly between pre-&#xa0;and post-test (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001), as did belief that climate change affected respondents' health (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001). (3) Behavioral intention. At post-test, higher knowledge of heat vulnerabilities and environmental conditions that trigger pollen allergies were associated with greater behavioral intention scores (p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.001 and p&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.002, respectively). In-depth interviews (N&#x2009;=&#x2009;15) revealed that vulnerable audiences are interested in immediate-term advice on health management and protective behaviors related to their chronic conditions, but took less notice of messages about collective action to slow or stop climate change. Respondents identified both appealing and less favorable design elements in the materials.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Individuals who are vulnerable to the health effects of climate change benefit from communication materials that explain, using graphics and concise language, how climate change affects health conditions and how to engage in protective adaptation behaviors.}, }
@article {pmid27603667, year = {2016}, author = {Stevenson, KT and Peterson, MN and Bradshaw, A}, title = {How Climate Change Beliefs among U.S. Teachers Do and Do Not Translate to Students.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {e0161462}, pmid = {27603667}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Interpersonal Relations ; Male ; North Carolina ; Public Opinion ; School Teachers/*psychology ; Students/*psychology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Research suggests climate change beliefs among science teachers mirror those of the general public, raising questions of whether teachers may be perpetuating polarization of public opinion through their classrooms. We began answering these questions with a survey of middle school science teachers (n = 24) and their students (n = 369) in North Carolina, USA. Similar to previous studies, we found that though nearly all (92.1%) of students had teachers who believe that global warming is happening, few (12%) are in classrooms with teachers who recognize that global warming is anthropogenic. We found that teacher beliefs that global warming is happening and student climate change knowledge were the strongest predictors of student belief that global warming is happening and human caused. Conversely, teacher beliefs about human causes of global warming had no relationship with student beliefs, suggesting that science teachers' low recognition of the causes of global warming is not necessarily problematic in terms of student outcomes. These findings may be explained by previous research suggesting adolescents interpret scientific information relatively independently of ideological constraints. Though teacher polarization may be problematic in its own right, it appears that as long as climate change information is presented in classrooms, students deduce anthropogenic causes.}, }
@article {pmid27600330, year = {2016}, author = {Lam, VW and Cheung, WW and Reygondeau, G and Sumaila, UR}, title = {Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {32607}, pmid = {27600330}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.}, }
@article {pmid27599050, year = {2016}, author = {Seif-Ennasr, M and Zaaboul, R and Hirich, A and Caroletti, GN and Bouchaou, L and El Morjani, ZEA and Beraaouz, EH and McDonnell, RA and Choukr-Allah, R}, title = {Climate change and adaptive water management measures in Chtouka Aït Baha region (Morocco).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {573}, number = {}, pages = {862-875}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.170}, pmid = {27599050}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study evaluates the effect on the availability of water resources for agriculture of expected future changes in precipitation and temperature distributions in north-western Africa. It also puts forward some locally derived adaptation strategies to climate change that can have a positive impact on water resources in the Chtouka Aït Baha region. Historical baselines of precipitation and temperature were derived using satellite data respectively from CHIRPS and CRU, while future projections of temperature and precipitation were extracted from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment database (CORDEX). Projections were also generated for two future periods (2030-2049 and 2080-2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Regional climate models and satellite data outputs were evaluated by calculating their bias and RMSE against historical baseline and observed data. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, temperature in the region shows an increase by 2°C for the 2030-2049 time period, and by 4 to 5°C towards the end of the 21st century. According to the RCP4.5 scenario, precipitation shows a reduction of 10 to 30% for the period 2030-2049, up to 60% for 2080-2099. Outputs from the climate change projections were used to force the HEC-HMS hydrological model. Simulation results indicate that water deficit at basin level will likely triple towards 2050 due to increase in water demand and decrease in aquifer recharge and dam storage. This alarming situation, in a country that already suffers from water insecurity, emphasizes the need for more efforts to implement climate change adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment of 38 climate change adaptation measures according to several criteria. The evaluation shows that measures affecting the management of water resources have the highest benefit-to-efforts ratio, which indicates that decision makers and stakeholders should increasingly focus their efforts on management measures.}, }
@article {pmid27595495, year = {2016}, author = {Naroznova, I and Møller, J and Scheutz, C}, title = {Global warming potential of material fractions occurring in source-separated organic household waste treated by anaerobic digestion or incineration under different framework conditions.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {58}, number = {}, pages = {397-407}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2016.08.020}, pmid = {27595495}, issn = {1879-2456}, abstract = {This study compared the environmental profiles of anaerobic digestion (AD) and incineration, in relation to global warming potential (GWP), for treating individual material fractions that may occur in source-separated organic household waste (SSOHW). Different framework conditions representative for the European Union member countries were considered. For AD, biogas utilisation with a biogas engine was considered and two potential situations investigated - biogas combustion with (1) combined heat and power production (CHP) and (2) electricity production only. For incineration, four technology options currently available in Europe were covered: (1) an average incinerator with CHP production, (2) an average incinerator with mainly electricity production, (3) an average incinerator with mainly heat production and (4) a state-of-the art incinerator with CHP working at high energy recovery efficiencies. The study was performed using a life cycle assessment in its consequential approach. Furthermore, the role of waste-sorting guidelines (defined by the material fractions allowed for SSOHW) in relation to GWP of treating overall SSOHW with AD was investigated. A case-study of treating 1tonne of SSOHW under framework conditions in Denmark was conducted. Under the given assumptions, vegetable food waste was the only material fraction which was always better for AD compared to incineration. For animal food waste, kitchen tissue, vegetation waste and dirty paper, AD utilisation was better unless it was compared to a highly efficient incinerator. Material fractions such as moulded fibres and dirty cardboard were attractive for AD, albeit only when AD with CHP and incineration with mainly heat production were compared. Animal straw, in contrast, was always better to incinerate. Considering the total amounts of individual material fractions in waste generated within households in Denmark, food waste (both animal and vegetable derived) and kitchen tissue are the main material fractions allowing GWP mitigation with AD when it is compared to incineration. The inclusion of other material fractions in SSOHW sorting guidelines may be considered of less importance.}, }
@article {pmid27591704, year = {2016}, author = {Sterk, A and de Man, H and Schijven, JF and de Nijs, T and de Roda Husman, AM}, title = {Climate change impact on infection risks during bathing downstream of sewage emissions from CSOs or WWTPs.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {105}, number = {}, pages = {11-21}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2016.08.053}, pmid = {27591704}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Humans ; *Sewage ; *Wastewater ; Water ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to influence infection risks while bathing downstream of sewage emissions from combined sewage overflows (CSOs) or waste water treatment plants (WWTPs) due to changes in pathogen influx, rising temperatures and changing flow rates of the receiving waters. In this study, climate change impacts on the surface water concentrations of Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium and norovirus originating from sewage were modelled. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was used to assess changes in risks of infection. In general, infection risks downstream of WWTPs are higher than downstream CSOs. Even though model outputs show an increase in CSO influxes, in combination with changes in pathogen survival, dilution within the sewage system and bathing behaviour, the effects on the infection risks are limited. However, a decrease in dilution capacity of surface waters could have significant impact on the infection risks of relatively stable pathogens like Cryptosporidium and norovirus. Overall, average risks are found to be higher downstream WWTPs compared to CSOs. Especially with regard to decreased flow rates, adaptation measures on treatment at WWTPs may be more beneficial for human health than decreasing CSO events.}, }
@article {pmid27591524, year = {2016}, author = {Malkiewicz, M and Drzeniecka-Osiadacz, A and Krynicka, J}, title = {The dynamics of the Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen seasons in the context of climate change (SW Poland).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {573}, number = {}, pages = {740-750}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.103}, pmid = {27591524}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Allergens/*analysis ; Alnus/*physiology ; Betula/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Corylus/*physiology ; Poland ; *Pollen ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/etiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The changes in the main features of early spring tree or shrub pollen seasons are important due to the significant impact on the occurrence of pollen-related allergy symptoms. This study shows the results of pollen monitoring for a period of eleven years (2003-2013) using a Burkard volumetric spore trap. The main characteristics of the hazel, alder, and birch pollination season were studied in Wrocław (SW Poland). The statistical analyses do not show a significant trend of annual total pollen count or shift in timing of the pollen season in the period of analysis. The research confirms a great impact (at the statistically significant level of 0.05) of the heat resources on pollination season (the value of the correlation coefficient ranges from -0.63 up to -0.87). Meteorological variables (e.g. sum of temperature for selected period) were compiled to 5-year running means to examine trends. Changes in the pollination period features due to climate change including both timing and intensity of pollen productivity, would have important consequences for allergy sufferers.}, }
@article {pmid27591186, year = {2016}, author = {Becklin, KM and Anderson, JT and Gerhart, LM and Wadgymar, SM and Wessinger, CA and Ward, JK}, title = {Examining Plant Physiological Responses to Climate Change through an Evolutionary Lens.}, journal = {Plant physiology}, volume = {172}, number = {2}, pages = {635-649}, pmid = {27591186}, issn = {1532-2548}, support = {F32 GM110988/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Biological Evolution ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Fossils ; Gene Flow ; Herbivory/physiology ; Mycorrhizae ; Photosynthesis ; Phylogeny ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena/genetics ; Plants/genetics/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Integrating knowledge from physiological ecology, evolutionary biology, phylogenetics, and paleobiology provides novel insights into factors driving plant physiological responses to both past and future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27588009, year = {2016}, author = {Unsworth, KL and Russell, SV and Davis, MC}, title = {Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation's Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {1212}, pmid = {27588009}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {In this paper, we argue that individuals - as members of society - play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants' belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid27585648, year = {2016}, author = {Wiesmeier, M and Poeplau, C and Sierra, CA and Maier, H and Frühauf, C and Hübner, R and Kühnel, A and Spörlein, P and Geuß, U and Hangen, E and Schilling, B and von Lützow, M and Kögel-Knabner, I}, title = {Projected loss of soil organic carbon in temperate agricultural soils in the 21(st) century: effects of climate change and carbon input trends.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {32525}, pmid = {27585648}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change and stagnating crop yields may cause a decline of SOC stocks in agricultural soils leading to considerable CO2 emissions and reduced agricultural productivity. Regional model-based SOC projections are needed to evaluate these potential risks. In this study, we simulated the future SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria in the 21(st) century. Soils from 51 study sites representing the most important soil classes of Central Europe were fractionated and derived SOC pools were used to initialize the RothC soil carbon model. For each site, long-term C inputs were determined using the C allocation method. Model runs were performed for three different C input scenarios as a realistic range of projected yield development. Our modelling approach revealed substantial SOC decreases of 11-16% under an expected mean temperature increase of 3.3 °C assuming unchanged C inputs. For the scenario of 20% reduced C inputs, agricultural SOC stocks are projected to decline by 19-24%. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario of 20% increased C inputs led to SOC decreases of 3-8%. Projected SOC changes largely differed among investigated soil classes. Our results indicated that C inputs have to increase by 29% to maintain present SOC stocks in agricultural soils.}, }
@article {pmid27583999, year = {2016}, author = {Valois, P and Blouin, P and Ouellet, C and Renaud, JS and Bélanger, D and Gosselin, P}, title = {The Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Continuing Medical Education Needs Assessment Framework.}, journal = {The Journal of continuing education in the health professions}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {218-225}, doi = {10.1097/CEH.0000000000000084}, pmid = {27583999}, issn = {1554-558X}, mesh = {Adult ; Analysis of Variance ; Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Clinical Competence/standards ; Education, Medical, Continuing/*methods ; Female ; Health Impact Assessment/*methods ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Physicians, Family/trends ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: As the health consequences of climate change (CC) will likely become more manifest in the future, family physicians have to be knowledgeable about these impacts and the ways in which they can affect their patients. The main aim of this study was to propose a competency framework and questionnaire used to conduct a needs analysis to identify and prioritize family physicians' real educational needs regarding the health impacts of CC.<br><br>METHODS: A mixed method combining a qualitative interview and a quantitative online questionnaire was used (n = 24 physicians). The interview assessed key beliefs related to participating in an online continuing medical education (eCME) activity on the health impacts of climate change, and the perception of the key factors or conditions required to ensure the family physicians' satisfaction with this eCME activity. The questionnaire assessed the current and desired levels of competency on five general training themes: general knowledge about CC; heat-related illnesses; CC, extreme weather events and modification of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases; CC, extreme weather events and modification of water-borne diseases; and mental health impacts of natural disasters.<br><br>RESULTS: Results revealed the need for improved medical education on climate change and health. Results also add to the literature by showing that a 3-hour eCME activity covering these topics would be useful and would allow family physicians to use this knowledge in their daily practice, notably through prevention and counseling.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Introducing a CME needs assessment framework and a generic instrument that reflects family physicians' needs regarding the health impacts of CC has the added advantage of standardizing the assessment procedure.}, }
@article {pmid27583363, year = {2016}, author = {Cooper, JA and Loomis, GW and Amador, JA}, title = {Hell and High Water: Diminished Septic System Performance in Coastal Regions Due to Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {e0162104}, pmid = {27583363}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biological Oxygen Demand Analysis ; *Climate Change ; New England ; Nitrogen/isolation &amp; purification ; Phosphorus/*isolation &amp; purification ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/*methods ; }, abstract = {Climate change may affect the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) to treat wastewater in coastal regions of the Northeastern United States. Higher temperatures and water tables can affect treatment by reducing the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment, which may result in greater transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) to groundwater, jeopardizing public and aquatic ecosystem health. The soil treatment area (STA) of an OWTS removes contaminants as wastewater percolates through the soil. Conventional STAs receive wastewater from the septic tank, with infiltration occurring deeper in the soil profile. In contrast, shallow narrow STAs receive pre-treated wastewater that infiltrates higher in the soil profile, which may make them more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify the water quality functions of a conventional and two types of shallow narrow STAs under present climate (PC; 20°C) and climate change (CC; 25°C, 30 cm elevation in water table). Significantly greater removal of BOD5 was observed under CC for all STA types. Phosphorus removal decreased significantly from 75% (PC) to 66% (CC) in the conventional STA, and from 100% to 71-72% in shallow narrow STAs. No fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) were released under PC, whereas up to 17 and 20 CFU 100 mL-1 were released in conventional and shallow narrow STAs, respectively, under CC. Total N removal increased from 14% (PC) to 19% (CC) in the conventional STA, but decreased in shallow narrow STAs, from 6-7% to less than 3.0%. Differences in removal of FCB and total N were not significant. Leaching of N in excess of inputs was also observed in shallow narrow STAs under CC. Our results indicate that climate change can affect contaminant removal from wastewater, with effects dependent on the contaminant and STA type.}, }
@article {pmid29051798, year = {2016}, author = {Burger, J and Gochfeld, M and Pittfield, T and Jeitner, C}, title = {Perceptions of Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Possible Consequences Relate Mainly to Self-Valuation of Science Knowledge.}, journal = {Energy and power engineering}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {250-262}, pmid = {29051798}, issn = {1949-243X}, support = {P30 ES005022/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {This study examines perceptions of climate change and sea level rise in New Jersey residents in 2012 and 2014. Different surveys have shown declines in interest and concern about climate change and sea level rise. Climate change and increasing temperatures have an anthropogenic cause, which relates to energy use, making it important to examine whether people believe that it is occurring. In late 2012 New Jersey experienced Super storm Sandy, one of the worst hurricanes in its history, followed by public discussion and media coverage of stronger more frequent storms due to climate change. Using structured interviews, we tested the null hypotheses that there were no differences in perceptions of 1260 interviewees as a function of year of the survey, age, gender, years of education, and self-evaluation of science knowledge (on a scale of 1 to 5). In 2012 460 of 639 (72%) rated "global warming occurring" as "certain" (#4) or "very certain" (#5) compared with 453 of 621 (73%) in 2014. For "due to human activities" the numbers of "certain" or "very certain" were 71% in 2012, and 67% in 2014 and for sea level rise the numbers were 64% and 70%. There were some inconsistent between-year differences with higher ratings in 2012 for 3 outcomes and higher ratings in 2014 for 5 outcomes. However, for 25 questions relative to climate change, sea level rise, and the personal and ecological effects of sea level rise, self-evaluation of science knowledge, independent of years of education, was the factor that entered 23 of the models, accounting for the most variability in ratings. People who believed they had a "high knowledge" (#4) or "very high knowledge" (#5) of science rated all issues as more important than did those people who rated their own scientific knowledge as average or below average.}, }
@article {pmid28725352, year = {2016}, author = {Caputi, N and Kangas, M and Denham, A and Feng, M and Pearce, A and Hetzel, Y and Chandrapavan, A}, title = {Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {3583-3593}, pmid = {28725352}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {An extreme marine heat wave which affected 2000 km of the midwest coast of Australia occurred in the 2010/11 austral summer, with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2-5°C above normal climatology. The heat wave was influenced by a strong Leeuwin Current during an extreme La Niña event at a global warming hot spot in the Indian Ocean. This event had a significant effect on the marine ecosystem with changes to seagrass/algae and coral habitats, as well as fish kills and southern extension of the range of some tropical species. The effect has been exacerbated by above-average SST in the following two summers, 2011/12 and 2012/13. This study examined the major impact the event had on invertebrate fisheries and the management adaption applied. A 99% mortality of Roei abalone (Haliotis roei) and major reductions in recruitment of scallops (Amusium balloti), king (Penaeus latisulcatus) and tiger (P. esculentus) prawns, and blue swimmer crabs were detected with management adapting with effort reductions or spatial/temporal closures to protect the spawning stock and restocking being evaluated. This study illustrates that fisheries management under extreme temperature events requires an early identification of temperature hot spots, early detection of abundance changes (preferably using pre-recruit surveys), and flexible harvest strategies which allow a quick response to minimize the effect of heavy fishing on poor recruitment to enable protection of the spawning stock. This has required researchers, managers, and industry to adapt to fish stocks affected by an extreme environmental event that may become more frequent due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid28989959, year = {2016}, author = {Teller, AS}, title = {Moving the Conversation on Climate Change and Inequality to the Local: Socio-ecological Vulnerability in Agricultural Tanzania.}, journal = {Sociology of development (Oakland, Calif.)}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {25-50}, pmid = {28989959}, issn = {2374-538X}, support = {T32 HD007338/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to shift seasonality in Tanzania, while smallholder farmers' livelihoods and the economy rely upon the success of rainfed agriculture. However, we should not a priori assume doomsday climate vulnerability scenarios of drought and devastation in the rural global South nor, on the other hand, that farmers will optimally employ local knowledge for effective adaptation. Drawing from qualitative fieldwork in two Tanzanian communities, I question these grand narratives of devastation and local adaptive capacity and introduce an approach that brings inequality to the center. Poorer nations are most vulnerable to climate change, but they are not homogenous and neither are the smallholder farmers living within them. I present evidence on the crucial context-specific dimensions of socio-ecological vulnerability for these smallholder farmers-1) water resources and access to them; 2) agricultural knowledge, including farmers' own knowledge and their interactions with sources like government-run agricultural extension and NGOs; and 3) existing drought-coping strategies-and the heterogeneity among farmers across these dimensions. Ultimately, this case demonstrates how climate change can reproduce existing inequalities within nations by drawing upon how farmers currently respond to drought as evidence. I present the difficult and somewhat bleak contexts within which the farmers are coping, but also illustrate the agency that farmers exhibit in response to these conditions and the adaptive capacity they possess. Finally, I call for more sub-national research on climate and inequality by sociologists and draw connections among within-nation inequality, climate change, and agricultural development initiatives.}, }
@article {pmid28867920, year = {2016}, author = {Berhane, K and Kumie, A and Samet, J}, title = {Health Effects of Environmental Exposures, Occupational Hazards and Climate Change in Ethiopia: Synthesis of Situational Analysis, Needs Assessment and the Way Forward.}, journal = {The Ethiopian journal of health development = Ya'Ityopya tena lemat mashet}, volume = {30}, number = {1 Spec Iss}, pages = {50-56}, pmid = {28867920}, issn = {1021-6790}, support = {P30 ES007048/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R24 TW009552/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; U01 TW010094/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; U2R TW010125/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The burden of diseases caused by environmental and occupational health hazards and the effects of global climate change are of growing concerns in Ethiopia. However, no adequate information seems to be available on the current situation. This means there is a critical gap in research, policy framework and implementation in the country.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this paper was to synthesize evidence from a systematic situational analysis and needs assessment to help establish a hub for research and training on three major themes and their related policy frameworks: air pollution and health, occupational health and safety and climate change and health.<br><br>METHODS: The methods used in this work include a systematic review of secondary data from peer-reviewed literature, thesis reports from academia, government and national statistical reports. Limited primary data based on key informant interviews held with major stakeholders were also used as sources of data.<br><br>FINDINGS: Exposures to high levels of indoor and outdoor air pollutants were found to be major sources of public health challenges. Lack of occupational safety and health due to agricultural activities and exposure to industries was found to be substantial. Worse is the growing fear that climate change will pose increasingly significant multidimensional challenges to the environment and public health. Across all three areas of focus, there was a paucity of information on local scientific evidence. There is also very limited trained skilled manpower and physical infrastructure to monitor the environment and enforce regulatory guidelines. Research, policy frameworks and regulatory mechanisms were among the cross-cutting issues that needed urgent attention.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Critical gaps were observed in research and training across the three themes. Also, there is a limitation in implementing the link between policy and related regulations in the environment and health.}, }
@article {pmid28867919, year = {2016}, author = {Simane, B and Beyene, H and Deressa, W and Kumie, A and Berhane, K and Samet, J}, title = {Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis.}, journal = {The Ethiopian journal of health development = Ya'Ityopya tena lemat mashet}, volume = {30}, number = {1 Spec Iss}, pages = {28-41}, pmid = {28867919}, issn = {1021-6790}, support = {P30 ES007048/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; U2R TW010125/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; U01 TW010094/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; R24 TW009552/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; R24 TW009548/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This review assessed Ethiopia's existing situation on issues related to the environment, climate change and health, and identifies gaps and needs that can be addressed through research, training, and capacity building.<br><br>METHODS: The research was conducted through a comprehensive review of available secondary data and interviewing key informants in various national organizations involved in climate change adaptation and mitigation activities.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change-related health problems, such as mortality and morbidity due to floods and heat waves, vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, meningitis, and air pollution-related respiratory diseases are increasing in Ethiopia. Sensitive systems such as agriculture, health, and water have been affected, and the effects of climate change will continue to magnify without the right adaptation and mitigation measures. Currently, research on climate change and health is not adequately developed in Ethiopia. Research and other activities appear to be fragmented and uncoordinated. As a result, very few spatially detailed and methodologically consistent studies have been made to assess the impact of climate in the country. There has often been a lack of sufficient collaboration among organizations on the planning and execution of climate change and health activities, and the lack of trained professionals who can perform climate change and health-related research activities at various levels.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Firstly, there is a lack of organized structure in the various organizations. Secondly, there is inadequate level of inter-sectoral collaboration and poor coordination and communication among different stakeholders. Thirdly, there are no reliable policy guidelines and programs among organizations, agencies and offices that target climate change and health. Fourth, the existing policies fail to consider the gender and community-related dimensions of climate change. Fifth, the monitoring and evaluation efforts exerted on climate change and health activities are not strong enough to address the climate change and health issues in the country.}, }
@article {pmid28510835, year = {2015}, author = {Chiou, CR and Hsieh, TY and Chien, CC}, title = {Plant bioclimatic models in climate change research.}, journal = {Botanical studies}, volume = {56}, number = {1}, pages = {26}, pmid = {28510835}, issn = {1817-406X}, abstract = {Bioclimatics is an ancient science that was once neglected by many ecologists. However, as climate changes have attracted increasing attention, scientists have reevaluated the relevance of bioclimatology and it has thus become essential for exploring climate changes. Because of the rapidly growing importance of bioclimatic models in climate change studies, we evaluated factors that influence plant bioclimatology, constructed and developed bioclimatic models, and assessed the precautionary effects of the application of the models. The findings obtained by sequentially reviewing the development history and importance of bioclimatic models in climate change studies can be used to enhance the knowledge of bioclimatic models and strengthen their ability to apply them. Consequently, bioclimatic models can be used as a powerful tool and reference in decision-making responses to future climate changes. The objectives of this study were to (1) understand how climatic factors affect plants; (2) describe the sources, construction principles, and development of early plant bioclimatic models (PBMs); and (3) summarize the recent applications of PBMs in climate change research.}, }
@article {pmid29093845, year = {2015}, author = {MacFarlane, EK and Shakya, R and Berry, HL and Kohrt, BA}, title = {Implications of participatory methods to address mental health needs associated with climate change: 'photovoice' in Nepal.}, journal = {BJPsych international}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {33-35}, pmid = {29093845}, issn = {2056-4740}, abstract = {'Photovoice', a community-based participatory research methodology, uses images as a tool to deconstruct problems by posing meaningful questions in a community to find actionable solutions. This community-enhancing technique was used to elicit experiences of climate change among women in rural Nepal. The current analysis employs mixed methods to explore the subjective mental health experience of participating in a 4- to 5-day photovoice process focused on climate change. A secondary objective of this work was to explore whether or not photovoice training, as a one-time 4- to 5-day intensive intervention, can mobilise people to be more aware of environmental changes related to climate change and to be more resilient to these changes, while providing positive mental health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid29093844, year = {2015}, author = {Berry, HL and Peel, D}, title = {Worrying about climate change: is it responsible to promote public debate?.}, journal = {BJPsych international}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {31-32}, pmid = {29093844}, issn = {2056-4740}, abstract = {Some fear that provoking widespread worry about climate change may harm mental health. The Regional Wellbeing Survey, a large study of health, well-being and life in rural and regional Australia, examined climate change worry and attitudes. Most respondents were worried about climate change and agreed that fossil fuel use causes global warming, but there was no evidence to suggest that worry about climate change is linked to mental health in the general population. Respectful, calm, considered public debate about how to respond to climate change is unlikely to be harmful to population mental health. Individually focused clinical approaches are unlikely to be effective as a primary approach in managing the mental health impacts of climate change. Instead, collective, systems-based approaches will be needed.}, }
@article {pmid29093843, year = {2015}, author = {Maughan, DL and Berry, HL}, title = {Mind games: standing by while the world ignores climate change.}, journal = {BJPsych international}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {29-30}, pmid = {29093843}, issn = {2056-4740}, abstract = {The mental health effects of climate change are significant and highly concerning, yet little is known about the magnitude of these effects or how best to manage them. This introduction to the thematic papers in this issue explains why climate change is an increasingly important matter for all health services.}, }
@article {pmid27752430, year = {2015}, author = {Svoboda, N and Strer, M and Hufnagel, J}, title = {Rainfed winter wheat cultivation in the North German Plain will be water limited under climate change until 2070.}, journal = {Environmental sciences Europe}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {29}, pmid = {27752430}, issn = {2190-4707}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: We analysed regionalised ECHAM6 climate data for the North German Plains (NGP) in two time slots from 1981 to 2010 and 2041 to 2070.<br><br>RESULTS: The annual mean temperature will increase significantly (by about 2&#xa0;&#xb0;C) that will result in shorter growing periods since the sum of degree days until harvest will be reached earlier. Even if the amount of total precipitation does not change there appears to be a shift towards increased winter precipitation and thus noticeable reduced summer precipitation.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Through the example of winter wheat we show a future limitation of water availability if yields are to be maintained or even increase.}, }
@article {pmid28078970, year = {2014}, author = {Mathews, AS}, title = {Scandals, audits, and fictions: Linking climate change to Mexican forests.}, journal = {Social studies of science}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {82-108}, doi = {10.1177/0306312713490330}, pmid = {28078970}, issn = {0306-3127}, abstract = {Over the past 10 years, Mexican officials and scientists have promoted the project of protecting Mexican forests in order to mitigate climate change, forests acting to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This article compares existing policies around mass reforestation and markets for environmental services, and their relationships to a policy in construction - Reduced Emissions through Degradation and Deforestation. Mass reforestation policies collapsed in the face of politicized audits and stories about corruption; markets for environmental services continued with little criticism, stabilized in part by the charisma of Reduced Emissions through Degradation and Deforestation policies. I explain the collapse of mass reforestation policies as being due to failed knowledge performances by officials and scientists; such failures are assessed by more or less skeptical publics who expect specific ways of performing credible public knowledge. Areas of nonknowledge can be tamed as calculable uncertainty, or alternatively transformed into ontological indeterminacy, scandals, and stories of corruption. Areas of nonknowledge are not pathological: they may support, as well as undermine, climate science, the authority of institutions, or the credibility of carbon accounts.}, }
@article {pmid29160667, year = {2014}, author = {Souther, S and McGraw, JB}, title = {Synergistic effects of climate change and harvest on extinction risk of American ginseng.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {1463-1477}, doi = {10.1890/13-0653.1}, pmid = {29160667}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Extinction, Biological ; Panax/genetics/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Over the next century, the conservation of biodiversity will depend not only on our ability to understand the effect of climate change, but also on our capacity to predict how other factors interact with climate change to influence species viability. We used American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.), the United States' premier wild-harvested medicinal, as a model system to ask whether the effect of harvest on extinction risk depends on changing climatic conditions. We performed stochastic projections of viability response to an increase in maximum growing-season temperature of 1°C over the next 70 years by sampling matrices from long-term demographic studies of 12 populations (representing 75 population-years of data). In simulations that included harvest and climate change, extinction risk at the median population size (N = 140) was 65%, far exceeding the additive effects of the two factors (extinction risk = 8% and 6% for harvest and climate change, respectively; quasi-extinction threshold = 20). We performed a life table response experiment (LTRE) to determine underlying causes of the effect of warming and harvest on deterministic λ (λd). Together, these factors decreased λd values primarily by reducing growth of juvenile and small adult plants to the large-adult stage, as well as decreasing stasis of the juveniles and large adults. The interaction observed in stochastic model results followed from a nonlinear increase in extinction risk as the combined impact of harvest and warming consistently reduced λ values below the demographic tipping point of λ = 1. While further research is needed to create specific recommendations, these findings indicate that ginseng harvest regulations should be revised to account for changing climate. Given the possibility of nonlinear response like that reported here, pre-emptive adaptation of management strategies may increase efficacy of biodiversity conservation by allowing behavior modification prior to precipitous population decline.}, }
@article {pmid27752416, year = {2014}, author = {Riediger, J and Breckling, B and Nuske, RS and Schröder, W}, title = {Will climate change increase irrigation requirements in agriculture of Central Europe? A simulation study for Northern Germany.}, journal = {Environmental sciences Europe}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {18}, pmid = {27752416}, issn = {2190-4707}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: By example of a region in Northern Germany (County of Uelzen), this study investigates whether climate change is likely to require adaption of agricultural practices such as irrigation in Central Europe. Due to sandy soils with low water retention capacity and occasional insufficient rainfall, irrigation is a basic condition for agricultural production in the county of Uelzen. Thus, in the framework of the comprehensive research cluster Nachhaltiges Landmanagement im Norddeutschen Tiefland (NaLaMa-nT), we investigated whether irrigation might need to be adapted to changing climatic conditions. To this end, results from regionalised climate change modelling were coupled with soil- and crop-specific evapotranspiration models to calculate potential amounts of irrigation to prevent crop failures. Three different runs of the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 were used for the time period until 2070.<br><br>RESULTS: The results show that the extent of probable necessary irrigation will likely increase in the future. For the scenario run with the highest temperature rise, the results suggest that the amount of ground water presently allowed to be extracted for irrigation might not be sufficient in the future to retain common agricultural pattern.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The investigation at hand exemplifies data requirements and methods to estimate irrigation needs under climate change conditions. Restriction of ground water withdrawal by German environmental regulation may require an adaptation of crop selection and alterations in agricultural practice also in regions with comparable conditions.}, }
@article {pmid28510857, year = {2013}, author = {Zhao, ZJ and Shen, GZ and Tan, LY and Kang, DW and Wang, MJ and Kang, W and Guo, WX and Zeppel, MJ and Yu, Q and Li, JQ}, title = {Treeline dynamics in response to climate change in the Min Mountains, southwestern China.}, journal = {Botanical studies}, volume = {54}, number = {1}, pages = {15}, pmid = {28510857}, issn = {1817-406X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Abies faxoniana is the dominant plant species of the forest ecosystem on the eastern edge of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where the treeline is strongly defined by climate. The tree-ring chronologies and age structure of Abies faxoniana were developed in the treeline ecotones on the northwestern and southeastern aspects of the Min Mountains in the Wanglang Nature Reserve to examine the treeline dynamics of recent decades in response to climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: On the northwestern aspect, correlation analysis showed that the radial growth was significantly and positively correlated with precipitation in current January and monthly mean temperature in current April, but significantly and negatively correlated with monthly mean temperature in previous August. On the southeastern aspect, the radial growth was significantly negatively correlated with monthly mean temperature in previous July and August.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The different responses of radial growth to climatic variability on both the aspects might be mainly due to the micro-environmental conditions. The recruitment benefited from the warm temperature in current April, July and September on the northwestern aspect. The responses of radial growth and recruitment to climatic variability were similar on the northwestern slope. Recruitment was greatly restricted by competition with dense bamboos on the southeastern aspect.}, }
@article {pmid28741832, year = {2012}, author = {Donley, EE and Naiman, RJ and Marineau, MD}, title = {Strategic planning for instream flow restoration: a case study of potential climate change impacts in the central Columbia River basin.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {18}, number = {10}, pages = {3071-3086}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02773.x}, pmid = {28741832}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {We provide a case study prioritizing instream flow restoration activities by sub-basin according to the habitat needs of Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed salmonids relative to climate change in the central Columbia River basin in Washington State (USA). The objective is to employ scenario analysis to inform and improve existing instream flow restoration projects. We assess the sensitivity of late summer (July, August, and September) flows to the following scenario simulations - singly or in combination: climate change, changes in the quantity of water used for irrigation and possible changes to existing water resource policy. Flows for four sub-basins were modeled using the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) under historical and projected conditions of 2020 and 2040 for each scenario. Results indicate that Yakima will be the most flow-limited sub-basin with average reductions in streamflow of 41% under climate conditions of 2020 and 56% under 2040 conditions; 1.3-2.5 times greater than those of other sub-basins. In addition, irrigation plays a key role in the hydrology of the Yakima sub-basin - with flow reductions ranging from 78% to 90% under severe to extreme (i.e., 20-40%) increases in agricultural water use (2.0-4.4 times the reductions in the other sub-basins). The Yakima and Okanogan sub-basins are the most responsive to simulations of flow-bolstering policy change (providing salmon with first priority water allocation and at biologically relevant flows), as demonstrated by 91-100% target flows attained. The Wenatchee and Methow sub-basins do not exhibit similar responsiveness to simulated policy changes. Considering climate change only, we conclude that flow restoration should be prioritized first in the Yakima and Wenatchee sub-basins, and second in the Okanogan and Methow. Considering both climate change and possible policy changes, we recommend that the Yakima sub-basin receive the highest priority for flow restoration activities to sustain critical instream habitat for ESA-listed salmonids.}, }
@article {pmid28741824, year = {2012}, author = {Matthews, S and Sullivan, AL and Watson, P and Williams, RJ}, title = {Climate change, fuel and fire behaviour in a eucalypt forest.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {18}, number = {10}, pages = {3212-3223}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02768.x}, pmid = {28741824}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {A suite of models was used to examine the links between climate, fuels and fire behaviour in dry eucalypt forests in south-eastern Australia. Predictions from a downscaled climate model were used to drive models of fuel amount, the moisture content of fuels and two models of forest fire behaviour at a location in western Sydney in New South Wales, Australia. We found that a warming and drying climate produced lower fine fuel amounts, but greater availability of this fuel to burn due to lower moisture contents. Changing fuel load had only a small effect on fuel moisture. A warmer, drier climate increased rate of spread, an important measure of fire behaviour. Reduced fuel loads ameliorated climate-induced changes in fire behaviour for one model. Sensitivity analysis of the other fire model showed that changes in fuel amount induced changes in fire behaviour of a similar magnitude to that caused directly by sensitivity to climate. Projection of changes in fire risk requires modelling of changes in vegetation as well as changes in climate. Better understanding of climate change effects on vegetation structure is required.}, }
@article {pmid28741816, year = {2012}, author = {Albouy, C and Guilhaumon, F and Araújo, MB and Mouillot, D and Leprieur, F}, title = {Combining projected changes in species richness and composition reveals climate change impacts on coastal Mediterranean fish assemblages.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {18}, number = {10}, pages = {2995-3003}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02772.x}, pmid = {28741816}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Species Temporal Turnover (STT) is one of the most familiar metrics to assess changes in assemblage composition as a consequence of climate change. However, STT mixes two components in one metric, changes in assemblage composition caused by a process of species loss or gain (i.e. the nestedness component) and changes in assemblage composition caused by a process of species replacement (i.e. the species replacement component). Drawing on previous studies investigating spatial patterns of beta diversity, we propose measures of STT that allow analysing each component (species replacement vs. nestedness), separately. We also present a mapping strategy to simultaneously visualize changes in species richness and assemblage composition. To illustrate our approach, we used the Mediterranean coastal fish fauna as a case study. Using Bioclimatic Envelope Models (BEMs) we first projected the potential future climatic niches of 288 coastal Mediterranean fish species based on a global warming scenario. We then aggregated geographically the species-level projections to analyse the projected changes in species richness and composition. Our results show that projected changes in assemblage composition are caused by different processes (species replacement vs. nestedness) in several areas of the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, our mapping strategy highlights that the coastal fish fauna in several regions of the Mediterranean Sea could experience a 'cul-de-sac' effect if exposed to climate warming. Overall, the joint exploration of changes in species richness and composition coupled with the distinction between species replacement and nestedness bears important information for understanding the nature of climate change impacts on biodiversity. These methodological advances should help decision-makers in prioritizing action in the areas facing the greatest vulnerability to climate.}, }
@article {pmid28612774, year = {2012}, author = {Deb, AK and Kanungo, S and Deb, M and Nair, GB}, title = {Impact of climate change on health and strategies for mitigation and adaptation.}, journal = {WHO South-East Asia journal of public health}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {8-19}, doi = {10.4103/2224-3151.206918}, pmid = {28612774}, issn = {2304-5272}, abstract = {Climate change and its negative impacts on health are now globally recognized. A wide variety of diseases and health conditions - ranging from heat and radiation-related illnesses to water and vector-borne diseases, under-nutrition, respiratory and cardiac problems, drowning, injuries and mental stress arising from extreme and sudden weather events and their resultant population displacements - all have been associated with various components of changing climate. However, the exact nature and extent of such impacts are yet to be firmly established since many other non-climate factors also produce or affect similar outcomes. This calls for more research specially from the underdeveloped countries, where such impacts are disproportionately more but reliable data are remarkably less. Recognizing the importance of human influences on global warming, almost all countries in the world have undertaken some kind of policies and measures to mitigate adverse climatic changes. Unfortunately, even without further addition of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in our climate, the amount of GHGs already released has the potential to continue the damages for many more decades to come. Thus, all countries should also place priorities in assessing their own vulnerabilities from climate change and take adaptive measures accordingly. As climate change exerts its impact simultaneously in many non-health sectors as well, this would require strong intersectoral cooperation at various levels.}, }
@article {pmid27736403, year = {2009}, author = {Ward, M}, title = {Protecting health in Europe from climate change Protecting health in Europe from climate change Menne Bettina , Kovats Sari Apfel Franklin (Eds) World Health Organization CHF15 50pp 9789289071871 9289071877 [Formula: see text].}, journal = {Nursing management (Harrow, London, England : 1994)}, volume = {16}, number = {4}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.7748/nm.16.4.9.s14}, pmid = {27736403}, issn = {1354-5760}, abstract = {THIS BOOKLET identifies the drivers for climate change in Europe and reviews how attendant healthcare problems can be reduced.}, }
@article {pmid28903228, year = {2007}, author = {Yano, T and Aydin, M and Haraguchi, T}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation Demand and Crop Growth in a Mediterranean Environment of Turkey.}, journal = {Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {7}, number = {10}, pages = {2297-2315}, pmid = {28903228}, issn = {1424-8220}, abstract = {A simulation study was carried out to describe effects of climate change on cropgrowth and irrigation water demand for a wheat-maize cropping sequence in aMediterranean environment of Turkey. Climate change scenarios were projected using dataof the three general circulation models-GCMs (CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI)-for theperiod of 1990 to 2100 and one regional climate model-RCM-for the period of 2070 to2079. Potential impacts of climate change based on GCMs data were estimated for the A2scenario in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The forcing data for theboundary condition of the RCM were given by the MRI model. Daily CGCM2 and RCMdata were used for computations of water balance and crop development. Predictionsderived from the models about changes in irrigation and crop growth in this study coveredthe period of 2070 to 2079 relative to the baseline period of 1994 to 2003. The effects ofclimate change on water demand and on wheat and maize yields were predicted using thedetailed crop growth subroutine of the SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant) model. Precipitation was projected to decrease by about 163, 163 and 105 mm during the periodof 1990 to 2100 under the A2 scenario of the CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models,respectively. The CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models projected a temperature rise of 4.3,5.3 and 3.1 oC, respectively by 2100. An increase in temperature may result in a higherevaporative demand of the atmosphere. However, actual evapotranspiration (ETa) fromwheat cropland under a doubling CO2 concentration for the period of 2070 to 2079 wasSensors 2007, 7 2298 predicted to decrease by about 28 and 8% relative to the baseline period based on the CGCM2 and RCM data, respectively. According to these models, irrigation demand by wheat would be higher for the same period due to a decrease in precipitation. Both ETa and irrigation water for maize cropland were projected to decrease by 24 and 15% according to the CGCM2, and 28 and 22% according to the RCM, respectively. The temperature rise accelerated crop development but shortened the growing period by 24 days for wheat and 9 days for maize according to the CGCM2 data. The shortened growth duration with a higher temperature reduced the biomass accumulation of both crops regardless of CO2-fertilization effect. With the combined effect of CO2-fertilization and increased temperature, the CGCM2 and RCM projections resulted in an increase by 16 and 36% in grain yield of wheat and a decrease by about 25% and an increase by 3% in maize yield, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid27736388, year = {2007}, author = {}, title = {Nurses' role in global warming.}, journal = {Nursing management (Harrow, London, England : 1994)}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {4}, doi = {10.7748/nm.14.5.4.s5}, pmid = {27736388}, issn = {1354-5760}, abstract = {Nurses are being urged to play their part in helping the NHS tackle global warming.}, }
@article {pmid29111949, year = {2003}, author = {White, CM}, title = {A&amp;WMA Annual Conference Preview: 2003 Critical Review to Cover Co2 Emissions and Global Warming.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {53}, number = {4}, pages = {505}, doi = {10.1080/10473289.2003.10466167}, pmid = {29111949}, issn = {2162-2906}, }
@article {pmid28547553, year = {2002}, author = {Nadkarni, NM and Solano, R}, title = {Potential effects of climate change on canopy communities in a tropical cloud forest: an experimental approach.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {131}, number = {4}, pages = {580-586}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-002-0899-3}, pmid = {28547553}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {Global climate change models predict reduced cloud water in tropical montane forests. To test the effects of reduced cloud water on epiphytes, plants that are tightly coupled to atmospheric inputs, we transplanted epiphytes and their arboreal soil from upper cloud forest trees to trees at slightly lower elevations that are naturally exposed to less cloud water. Control plants moved between trees within the upper site showed no transplantation effects, but experimental plants at lower sites had significantly higher leaf mortality, lower leaf production, and reduced longevity. After the epiphytes died, seedlings of terrestrial gap-colonizing tree species grew from the seed banks within the residual mats of arboreal soil. Greenhouse experiments confirmed that the death of epiphytes can result in radical compositional changes of canopy communities. Thus, tropical montane epiphyte communities constitute both a potentially powerful tool for detecting climate changes and a rich arena to study plant/soil/seed interactions under natural and manipulated conditions. This study also provides experimental evidence that the potential effects of global climate change on canopy and terrestrial communities can be significant for cloud forest biota. Results suggest there will be negative effects on the productivity and longevity of particular epiphytes and a subsequent emergence of an emerging terrestrial component into the canopy community from a previously suppressed seed bank.}, }
@article {pmid28547255, year = {2002}, author = {Inouye, DW and Morales, MA and Dodge, GJ}, title = {Variation in timing and abundance of flowering by Delphinium barbeyi Huth (Ranunculaceae): the roles of snowpack, frost, and La Niña, in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {130}, number = {4}, pages = {543-550}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-001-0835-y}, pmid = {28547255}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {Delphinium barbeyi is a common herbaceous wildflower in montane meadows at 2,900 m near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, and its flowers are important nectar resources for bumblebees and hummingbirds. During the period 1977-1999 flowering was highly variable in both timing (date of first flower ranged from 5 July to 6 August, mean=17 July) and abundance (maximum open flowers per 2×2-m plot ranged from 11.3 to 197.9, mean=82). Time and abundance of flowering are highly correlated with the previous winter's snowpack, as measured by the amount of snow remaining on the ground on 15 May (range 0-185 cm, mean=67.1). We used structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among snowpack, first date of bare ground, first date of flowering, number of inflorescences produced, and peak number of flowers, all of which are significantly correlated with each other. Snowpack depth on 15 May is a significant predictor of the first date of bare ground (R [2]=0.872), which in turn is a significant predictor of the first date of flowering (R [2]=0.858); snowpack depth is also significantly correlated with number of inflorescences produced (R [2]=0.713). Both the number of inflorescences and mean date of first flowering are significant predictors of flowers produced (but with no residual effect of snowpack). Part of the effect of snowpack on flowering may be mediated through an increased probability of frost damage in years with lower snowpack - the frequency of early-season "frost events" explained a significant proportion of the variance in the number of flowers per stem. There is significant reduction of flower production in La Niña episodes. The variation in number of flowers we have observed is likely to affect the pollination, mating system, and demography of the species. Through its effect on snowpack, frost events, and their interaction, climate change may influence all of these variables.}, }
@article {pmid28547054, year = {2002}, author = {Kaufmann, R}, title = {Glacier foreland colonisation: distinguishing between short-term and long-term effects of climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {130}, number = {3}, pages = {470-475}, doi = {10.1007/s00442-001-0815-2}, pmid = {28547054}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {By comparing short-term (6 years) observations with long-term (>100 years) community changes reconstructed from the chronosequence along a glacier foreland, I show that the colonisation of recently deglaciated terrain by invertebrates may constitute a process reacting sensitively to temperature fluctuations. Early colonising stages (<30 years old) currently develop faster, and intermediate successional stages (30-50 years old) slower, than would be indicated by the long-term chronosequence pattern. These differences between the chronosequence approach and direct observation can be explained by a simple model relating the rate of community evolution to the temperature record. It would mean that an increase of 0.6°C in summer temperatures approximately doubled the speed of initial colonisation, whereas later successional stages were less sensitive to climate change. The present situation appears to result from unusually warm summers around 1950 and a warm period accelerating glacier retreat since 1980. In contrast to the long-term trend, all except the youngest communities have suffered a loss in diversity in recent years.}, }
@article {pmid28308042, year = {1999}, author = {Fox, LR and Ribeiro, SP and Brown, VK and Masters, GJ and Clarke, IP}, title = {Direct and indirect effects of climate change on St John's wort, Hypericum perforatum L. (Hypericaceae).}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {120}, number = {1}, pages = {113-122}, doi = {10.1007/s004420050839}, pmid = {28308042}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {We report results from a continuing, long-term field experiment addressing biotic responses to climatic change in grasslands. We focus on effects of summer precipitation (enhanced rainfall, drought, control) and winter ground temperatures (warming, control) on growth, reproduction and herbivory in St John's wort, Hypericum perforatum L. Both winter warming and summer rainfall regimes modified performance and interactions of H. perforatum, particularly those with herbivorous insects. Winter warming had positive effects, with earlier initiation of plant growth and reduced damage by gall-forming and sucking insects in spring, but also had strong negative effects on plant height, flowering, and reproduction. Summer drought reduced reproductive success, but even severe drought did not affect plant growth or flowering success directly. Rather, summer drought acted indirectly by modifying interactions with herbivorous insects via increased vulnerability of the plants to herbivory on flowers and capsules. Overall, the effects of summer precipitation were expressed mainly through interactions that altered the responses to increased winter temperatures, particularly as summer drought increased. The field site, in Oxfordshire, UK, is near the northern limit of distribution of the species, and the experiment tested probable responses of H. perforatum as climates shift towards those more typical of the current center of the distribution of the species. However, if climates do change according to the projected scenarios, then H. perforatum is unlikely to fare well near its northern boundary. Increased winter temperatures, particularly if accompanied by increased summer drought, will probably render this species even less abundant in England than at present.}, }
@article {pmid28307501, year = {1997}, author = {Carey, EV and Callaway, RM and DeLucia, EH}, title = {Stem respiration of ponderosa pines grown in contrasting climates: implications for global climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {111}, number = {1}, pages = {19-25}, doi = {10.1007/s004420050203}, pmid = {28307501}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {We examined the effects of climate and allocation patterns on stem respiration in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) growing on identical substrate in the cool, moist Sierra Nevada mountains and the warm, dry, Great Basin Desert. These environments are representative of current climatic conditions and those predicted to accompany a doubling of atmospheric CO2, respectively, throughout the range of many western north American conifers. A previous study found that trees growing in the desert allocate proportionally more biomass to sapwood and less to leaf area than montane trees. We tested the hypothesis that respiration rates of sapwood are lower in desert trees than in montane trees due to reduced stem maintenance respiration (physiological acclimation) or reduced construction cost of stem tissue (structural acclimation). Maintenance respiration per unit sapwood volume at 15°C did not differ between populations (desert: 6.39 ± 1.14 SE μmol m[-3] s[-1], montane: 6.54 ± 1.13 SE μmol m[-3] s[-1], P = 0.71) and declined with increasing stem diameter (P = 0.001). The temperature coefficient of respiration (Q 10) varied seasonally within both environments (P = 0.05). Construction cost of stem sapwood was the same in both environments (desert: 1.46 ± 0.009 SE g glucose g[-1] sapwood, montane: 1.48 ± 0.009 SE glucose g[-1] sapwood, P = 0.14). Annual construction respiration calculated from construction cost, percent carbon and relative growth rate was greater in montane populations due to higher growth rates. These data provide no evidence of respiratory acclimation by desert trees. Estimated yearly stem maintenance respiration was greater in large desert trees than in large montane trees because of higher temperatures in the desert and because of increased allocation of biomass to sapwood. By analogy, these data suggest that under predicted increases in temperature and aridity, potential increases in aboveground carbon gain due to enhanced photosynthetic rates may be partially offset by increases in maintenance respiration in large trees growing in CO2-enriched atmospheres.}, }
@article {pmid28307833, year = {1996}, author = {Loik, ME and Harte, J}, title = {High-temperature tolerance of Artemisia tridentata and Potentilla gracilis under a climate change manipulation.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {108}, number = {2}, pages = {224-231}, pmid = {28307833}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {Leaf tolerance to high temperatures, as determined by electrolyte leakage and chlorophyll a fluorescence, was compared for Artemisia tridentata (Asteraceae), a widespread shrub of the Great Basin, Colorado Plateau, and western slope of the Rocky Mountains, and Potentilla gracilis (Rosaceae), a herbaceous forb common to high-elevation meadows of the western United States. Species-specific and treatment-specific differences in leaf temperature, high-temperature tolerance and chlorophyll a fluorescence from photosystem II were compared, to test the hypothesis that plants at ecosystem borders will exhibit species-specific responses to climate change. Measurements were made for plants exposed to a climate change warming manipulation on a major ecosystem border at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Colorado, United States, in July and August 1995. In July, daily maximal leaf temperatures were significantly higher for P. gracilis than for A. tridentata. Leaf temperatures were slightly lower in August than July for leaves of both species, on control and heated plots, despite the fact that daily maximum air temperatures were not significantly different for the two months. High-temperature tolerance was determined for leaves treated for 1 h at temperatures ranging from 15°C to 65°C. LT50 was approximately 46°C for both species on control plots, but was 43°C for leaves of both species from heated plots, contrary to the predictions of the hypothesis. No shift in LT50 (acclimation) was apparent between July and August. Changes in chlorophyll a fluorescence from photosystem II (F V /F M) were used to characterize the photosynthetic response to high temperatures. For both A. tridentata and P. gracilis in July, F V /F M was about 0.7, but decreased for temperatures above 40°C. The results suggest that plant responses to global warming at ecosystem borders may be influenced by factors other than leaf-level physiological tolerance to elevated temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid28307299, year = {1996}, author = {Kennedy, AD}, title = {Antarctic fellfield response to climate change: a tripartite synthesis of experimental data.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {107}, number = {2}, pages = {141-150}, pmid = {28307299}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {This paper explores the biological consequences of climate change by integrating the results of a tripartite investigation involving fumarole, field manipulation and laboratory incubation experiments. The geographical region for this research is the maritime Antarctic. Under contemporary climate conditions, the lithosols in this region support only a sparse cryptogamic flora of limited taxonomic diversity and low structural complexity. However, the existence in geothermal areas of temperate species (e.g. Campylopus introflexus, Marchantia polymorpha, Philonotis acicularis) growing outside their normal biogeographical range suggests that elevated temperature and humidity may alter the trajectory of community development towards Magellanic or Patagonian composition. Productivity is also likely to increase, as indicated by significantly greater vegetative biomass recorded beneath climate-ameliorating soil covers than in controls. Barren fellfield soil samples transplanted to the laboratory and incubated at temperatures of 2-25°C show rapid development of moss, algae and lichen propagules in the range 15-25°C. A variety of species develop that have not been recorded in the field. The presence of exotic taxa indicates the existence of a dormant propagule bank in maritime Antarctic soils and suggests that no significant delay is likely to occur between the onset of climate warming and community development: instead, rapid establishment of those species favoured by the new climate conditions will yield a distinct founder effect, with increasing above- and below-ground biomass stimulating biogeochemical cycling. It is argued that the combined results of this synthesis identify generic responses to climate change arising from the importance at high latitudes of low temperature and water availability as limiting factors: subject to other growth resources being non-limiting, a more consistent stimulatory response to climate change may be expected than in temperate or tropical regions. The tripartite approach, encompassing field, microcosm and laboratory methodologies, renders the conclusions more robust than any single study considered in isolation.}, }
@article {pmid28307325, year = {1996}, author = {Martinelli, IA and Pessenda, LC and Espinoza, E and Camargo, PB and Telles, FC and Cerri, CC and Victoria, RL and Aravena, R and Richey, J and Trumbore, S}, title = {Carbon-13 variation with depth in soils of Brazil and climate change during the Quaternary.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {106}, number = {3}, pages = {376-381}, pmid = {28307325}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {Paleoecological and geomorphological studies indicate that, during the middle Holocene, there was a predominance of drier conditions with grassy savannahs replacing forests across the South American continent. Modern savannahs are composed mainly of C4 plants and soils developed under this type of vegetation show enrichment in [13]C compared to soils under C3 vegetation cover. If soils contain stabilized organic matter formed in the middle Holocene, we hypothesize that former C4 vegetation would be evidenced by a large enrichment of [13]C in soil organic matter (SOM). We investigate this possibility examining the depth variation of carbon isotopic composition in 21 soil profiles collected by different researchers at 14 different sites in Brazil. Of these, profiles from only three sites showed a marked increase of [13]C with depth (9-10‰ enrichment in δ[13]C difference between the surface soil and deepest depth); two sites showed intermediate enrichment (4-5‰), and nine sites showed a small enrichment of approximatelly 2.5‰. The majority of sites showing all-C3 derived SOM were in the Amazon region. Possible causes for the absence of a large [13]C enrichment with depth are: (1) dominance of C3 rather than C4 grasses in mid-Holocene savannahas, (2) soil profiles did not preserve organic matter derived from mid-Holocene plants, (3) the retreat of forest areas did not occur on a regional scale, but was a much more localized phenomenon.}, }
@article {pmid28312457, year = {1993}, author = {Chown, SL and Smith, VR}, title = {Climate change and the short-term impact of feral house mice at the sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {96}, number = {4}, pages = {508-516}, pmid = {28312457}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {At the Prince Edward Islands, temperatures have increased by approximately 1°C over the past 40 years, accompanied by a decline in precipitation. This has led to a reduction in the peat moisture content of mires and higher growing season "warmth". The temperature-and moisture-sensitive sedge, Uncinia compacta R. Br. (Cyperaceae), has consequently increased its aerial cover on Prince Edward Island, but harvesting of seeds by feral house mice (up to 100% removed) has prevented this from happening on Marion Island. Such extensive use of resources suggests that prey switching may be taking place at Marion Island. Scat analyses revealed that mice are·not only eating ectemnorhinine weevils to a greater extent than found in previous studies of populations at Marion Island, but that they also prefer larger weevils (±6 mm). A decrease in body size of preferred weevil prey species [Bothrometopus randi Jeannel and Ectemnorhinus similis C.O. Waterhouse (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)] has taken place on Marion Island (1986-1992), but not on Prince Edward Island. This appears to be a result of increased predation on weevils. In addition, adults of the prey species, E. similis are relatively more abundant on Prince Edward Island than adults of the smaller congener E. marioni Jeannel, and could not be found on Marion Island in the late austral summer of 1991. These results not only provide support for previous hypotheses of the effect of global warming on mouse-plant-invertebrate interactions on the Prince Edward Islands, but also provide limited evidence for the first recorded case of predator-mediated speciation. They also show that the interaction of human-induced changes operating at different scales may have profound consequences for local systems.}, }
@article {pmid28312940, year = {1993}, author = {Jonasson, S and Havström, M and Jensen, M and Callaghan, TV}, title = {In situ mineralization of nitorgen and phosphorus of arctic soils after perturbations simulating climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {95}, number = {2}, pages = {179-186}, pmid = {28312940}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {Seasonal net nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) mineralization was investigated at Abisko, Swedish Lapland in soils of a subarctic heath and in soils of a colder (by about 4° C), high altitude fellfield by (a) using in situ soil incubation in soils which had been shaded or subjected to two levels of increased temperature, combined with (b) reciprocal transplantation of soils between the two sites. Proportionally large and significant net seasonal mineralization of N, in contrast to non-significant P mineralization, was found in untransplanted and transplanted fellfield soil. In contrast, P was mineralized in proportionally large amounts, in contrast to low N mineralization, in the transplanted and untransplanted heath soil. The differences indicate that P was strongly immobilized in relation to N at the fellfield and that N was more strongly immobilized than P in the heath soil. The immobilization in both soils remained high even after a temperature change of 4-5° C experienced by transplanted soils. Air temperature increases of up to 4-5° C in greenhouses resulted in a soil temperature increase of 1-2° C and did not cause any extra increase of net N and P mineralization. The results suggest that soil temperature increases of up to 2° C, which are likely to occur by the end of the next century as an effect of a predicted 4-5° C rise in air temperature, have only small effects on net mineralization in at least two characteristic tundra soils. These effects are probably smaller than the natural fluctuation of plant available nutrients from site to site, even within the same plant community. A further soil temperature increase of up to 4-5° C may enhance decomposition and gross mineralization, but the rate of net mineralization, and hence the change of nutrient availability to the plants, depends on the extent of microbial immobilization of the extra nutrients released.}, }
@article {pmid27759242, year = {1993}, author = {Noble, IR}, title = {A Model of the Responses of Ecotones to Climate Change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {396-403}, doi = {10.2307/1941908}, pmid = {27759242}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {It has been suggested that global climatic change may be detected by monitoring the positions of ecotones. I built a model of the dynamics of ecotones similar to those found in altitudinal or latitudinal treelines, where a slow tendency for the ecotone to advance is counterbalanced by disturbances such as fire or landslides. The model showed that the response of such ecotones to a wide range of simulated climate changes was slow and that the ecotone front was dissected. It would appear that such ecotones would not make suitable sites for monitoring climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27759275, year = {1992}, author = {Leadley, PW and Reynolds, JF}, title = {Long-Term Response of an Arctic Sedge to Climate Change: A Simulation Study.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {323-340}, doi = {10.2307/1941868}, pmid = {27759275}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {It appears that polar regions of the Earth will bear the brunt of global temperature increases. Because of the ecological importance of the sedge Eriophorum vaginatum in the arctic and the large amount of data available on its growth and physiology, we chose this species as a test case to model the potential long-term response of arctic plants to global climate change. Our simulation model utilizes a mechanistic framework and includes the effects of light, temperature, season length, nitrogen availability, and CO2 concentration on E. vaginatum growth dynamics. The model was parameterized based on a series of published studies of the growth responses of E. vaginatum to nutrients and validated using (1) field studies on the growth responses of E. vaginatum to temperature and shading, and (2) the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on E. vaginatum photosynthesis. The effect of a 50-yr period of climate change on peak biomass (overwintering biomass plus seasonal production) in E. vaginatum was explored. We use climate change here to refer to linear increases over a 50-yr period in temperature (from 8° to 13°C), season length (from 100 to 120 d), and atmospheric CO2 (from 340 to 680 @mL/L). Similarly, a wide range of nitrogen availabilities (from 9 to 18 g°m [-2] °yr[-1]) was also examined because of its importance in productivity. The model predicts that a simultaneous increase in the direct effects of temperature, season length, and CO2 , with no change in nitrogen availability, will result in a slight decrease in peak biomass. A simulated long-term doubling of nitrogen availability results in an °70% increase in peak biomass, whereas with concurrent changes in climate and nitrogen availability, the model predicts a slight decline in peak biomass compared to increases in nitrogen alone. In essence, the model predicts that climate change will have substantial effects on E. vaginatum only indirectly through changes in nitrogen availability. Simulated peak biomass responds linearly up to a doubling of current nitrogen availabilities. Therefore, at low-to-moderate increases in nitrogen availability, the predicted response of E. vaginatum to climate change is linearly (and almost exclusively) dependent on our ability to predict the effects of climate change on nitrogen cycling. At nitrogen availabilities >2x current availabilities, the relationship flattens out very rapidly because the plant becomes limited by carbon uptake. Thus, if nitrogen availabilities more than double in the future, E. vaginatum may shift from being a nutrient-limited to a carbon-limited system and, consequently, increased season length and elevated CO2 concentrations may play an important role in controlling E. vaginatum productivity.}, }
@article {pmid27759194, year = {1992}, author = {Esser, G}, title = {Implications of Climate Change for Production and Decomposition in Grasslands and Coniferous Forests.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {47-54}, doi = {10.2307/1941888}, pmid = {27759194}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {A geographical information system, together with a climate-driven, global, regionalized, carbon-budget model, was used to investigate climatic limitations of grassland and coniferous forest vegetation units. The climatic limitations of the fluxes net primary productivity and litter decay were considered for present climatic conditions and for scenario conditions assuming a 3.5°C temperature rise or a 10% precipitation increase, respectively. The two fluxes behave differently in respect to climatic limitations. Global grassland and coniferous forest areas are quite similar in size, but grasslands have the higher productivity while coniferous forests dominate in phytomass. Therefore, grasslands are more important for the seasonal carbon cycle. Coniferous forests have the stronger potential to influence the long-term carbon balance. The assumed climate change will strongly affect the climatic limitations of both vegetation types.}, }
@article {pmid27755768, year = {1991}, author = {Anderson, JM}, title = {The Effects of Climate Change on Decomposition Processes in Grassland and Coniferous Forests.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {326-347}, doi = {10.2307/1941761}, pmid = {27755768}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {Current models of climate change predict a reduction of area covered by northern coniferous forests and tundra, and an increase in grasslands. These scenarios also indicate a northerly shift in agricultural regions, bringing virgin soils under cultivation. The direct effects of man on tundra, boreal forest, and temperate grassland ecosystems are likely to result in less carbon mobilization from soils and vegetation than from tropical forests. However, as a consequence of climate change, carbon mineralization rates from arctic and sub-arctic soils could be very rapid under warmer and drier conditions because of low stabilization of soil organic matter (SOM) and enhanced microbial responses to small changes in soil moisture and temperature. Predicting the response of these systems to climate change is complicated where the edaphic environment regulating SOM dynamics is not a direct function of macroclimatic conditions. Grasslands contain a greater proportion of highly stabilized SOM than coniferous forests, distributed over greater depth in the soil profile, which is less susceptible to changes in mineralization rates. It is concluded that short-term responses of soil processes to climate change are more predictable in well-drained grassland and forest soils than in waterlogged soils of the tundra and boreal region. Over longer periods of time, however, plant species and soil types will alter in response to new temperature and moisture regimes above- and belowground interacting with the effects of carbon enrichment and changes in nutrient availability. The dynamics of these plant-soil interactions and the future status of soils in different life zones as sources or sinks of carbon is poorly understood. More data are also needed on the distribution of waterlogged forest soils in the boreal zone and responses to warming, which include the production of methane as well as CO2 . The primary recommendation for future research is for integrated studies on plant and soil processes.}, }
@article {pmid27755666, year = {1991}, author = {Mooney, HA}, title = {Biological Response to Climate Change: An Agenda for Research.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {112-117}, doi = {10.2307/1941805}, pmid = {27755666}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {Our knowledge of the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems on a global scale is not developed to a sufficient degree to understand-much less predict-the consequences of climate change either on the systems themselves or on subsequent atmospheric interactions. In many regards we have lagged behind the atmospheric scientists, and to a certain degree the oceanographers, in establishing a global understanding of the dynamics of our respective systems. This is due in part to the inherently greater complexity of biotic systems, but also to the lack of appropriate tools to measure regional biotic processes. These tools are now becoming available and with them a better understanding of terrestrial and atmospheric interactions. Even as these capabilities become a reality we must be realistic in recognizing that we have so far to go along the road to understanding that useful predictive capacity may elude us for a long time to come. What we need to do is act on the recommendations that have been emerging over the past few years and develop a global program to document more precisely the distribution, structure, and quantity of the earth's biotic systems, their principal functional properties, and-most difficult of all-their changing nature. In order to do this we will have to: (1) perfect some of the emerging new tools for assessing these properties, (2) fill some of the gaps in our knowledge about the relevant processes, and (3) establish an international network of long-term observations and large-scale ecosystem manipulations. We have been aware of these needs and shortcomings for some time and we must move from plans to concerted international action.}, }
@article {pmid27755664, year = {1991}, author = {Long, SP and Hutchin, PR}, title = {Primary Production in Grasslands and Coniferous Forests with Climate Change: An Overview.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {139-156}, doi = {10.2307/1941807}, pmid = {27755664}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {In energy terms primary production is the driving step of the global carbon cycle. To predict the interaction of ecosystems with the "greenhoude" effect, it is necessary to understand how primary production, consumption, and decomposition will respond to climate change. Most estimates of primary production have been made by extrapolation from measured standing crops. For grasslands we show this approach to be seriously in error. Even where detailed studies of turnover and belowground production have been undertaken, errors are invariably high, severely limiting the value of models based on correlation of climate with measured production. Detailed information is available on the responses of individual plant processes to individual climatic variables at the leaf, plant, and stand level, giving potential for a more mechanistic approach in modelling. This approach is limited by lack of information on multivariate interactions and on some key physiological processes, and by uncertainties in scaling up to populations and communities. Despite this, some important insights to possible community responses, particularly those of C3 and C4 types, may be gained from knowledge of responses at the plant level and below. This review outlines the expected character of climate change in grasslands and coniferous forests. Knowledge of the responses of different physiological processes underlying production to individual aspects of climate change is considered, and its implications for higher levels of organization are discussed. Although feasible, mechanistic models of production compound the errors associated with individual process responses with uncertainties surrounding interaction and scaling up, and result in very large errors in any prediction of response to climate change. We conclude that there is insufficient information to predict accurately the response of primary production to climate change. The key processes for which information is inadequate and the parameters that have meaning at different scales need to be identified. Of particular promise is the approach of predicting production from light interception and conversion efficiency.}, }
@article {pmid27755662, year = {1991}, author = {Ryan, MG}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Plant Respiration.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {157-167}, doi = {10.2307/1941808}, pmid = {27755662}, issn = {1051-0761}, abstract = {Plant respiration is a large, environmentally sensitive component of the ecosystem carbon balance, and net ecosystem carbon flux will change as the balance between photosynthesis and respiration changes. Partitioning respiration into the functional components of construction, maintenance, and ion uptake will aid the estimation of plant respiration for ecosystems. Maintenance respiration is the component most sensitive to changes in temperature, CO2 , protein concentration and turnover, water stress, and atmospheric pollutants. For a wide variety of plant tissues, maintenance respiration, corrected for temperature, appears to be linearly related to Kjeldahl nitrogen content of live tissue. Total and maintenance respiration may decline under CO2 enrichment, but the mechanism, independence from changes in protein content, and acclimation are unknown. Response of respiration to temperature can be modelled as a Q10 relationship, if corrections for bias arising from daily and annual temperature amplitude are applied. Occurrence and control of the cyanide-resistant respiratory pathway and acclimation of respiration rates to different climates are poorly understood, but may substantially affect the reliability of model estimates of plant respiration.}, }
@article {pmid27755656, year = {1991}, author = {Breymeyer, A and Melillo, JM}, title = {The Effects of Climate Change on Production and Decomposition in Coniferous Forests and Grasslands.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {111}, doi = {10.2307/1941804}, pmid = {27755656}, issn = {1051-0761}, }
@article {pmid28311714, year = {1986}, author = {Solomon, AM}, title = {Transient response of forests to CO2-induced climate change: simulation modeling experiments in eastern North America.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {68}, number = {4}, pages = {567-579}, pmid = {28311714}, issn = {1432-1939}, abstract = {The temporal response of forests to CO2-induced climate changes was examined for eastern North America. A forest stand simulation model was used with the assumption that climate will change at a constant rate as atmospheric CO2 doubles, and then as CO2 doubles again. Before being used to project future vegetation trends, the simulation model FORENA was verified by its ability to reproduce long, temporal sequences of plant community change recorded by fossil pollen and by its ability to reproduce today's vegetation. The simulated effects of changing monthly temperature and precipitation included a distinctive dieback of extant trees at most locations, with only partial recovery of biomass in areas of today's temperate deciduous forest. In the southern portion of today's deciduous-coniferous transition forests the simulated dieback was indistinct and recovery by deciduous tree species was rapid. In more northerly transition areas, the dieback not only was clearly expressed, but occurred twice, when new dominant species replaced extant conifers, then were themselves replaced, as climate change continued. Boreal conifers also underwent diebacks and were replaced by deciduous hardwoods more slowly in the north than in the south. Transient responses in species composition and carbon storage continued as much as 300 years after simulated climate changes ceased.}, }
@article {pmid27348245, year = {2016}, author = {Singer, M and Hasemann, J and Raynor, A}, title = {"I Feel Suffocated:" Understandings of Climate Change in an Inner City Heat Island.}, journal = {Medical anthropology}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {453-463}, doi = {10.1080/01459740.2016.1204543}, pmid = {27348245}, issn = {1545-5882}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Anthropology, Medical ; *Climate Change ; Connecticut ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Hispanic or Latino/*psychology ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Narration ; *Public Health ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is contributing to a range of adverse environmental and weather shifts, including more intense and more frequent heatwaves and an intensification of the urban heat island effect. These changes are known to produce a set of significant and differentially distributed health problems, with a particularly high burden among poor and marginalized populations. In this article, we report findings from a qualitative study of community knowledge, attitudes, health and other concerns, and behavioral responses regarding mounting urban temperatures and related environmental health issues among Latinos living in the city of Hartford, CT in northeast United States. Findings suggest the need for enhanced participation in knowledge dissemination and preparedness planning based on the coproduction of knowledge about climate change and community responses to it. The special role of anthropology in such efforts is highlighted.}, }
@article {pmid26645102, year = {2016}, author = {McIver, L and Kim, R and Woodward, A and Hales, S and Spickett, J and Katscherian, D and Hashizume, M and Honda, Y and Kim, H and Iddings, S and Naicker, J and Bambrick, H and McMichael, AJ and Ebi, KL}, title = {Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {124}, number = {11}, pages = {1707-1714}, pmid = {26645102}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Pacific Islands ; Poisson Distribution ; Public Health Surveillance ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries-Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health.<br><br>METHODS: This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a "likelihood versus impact" matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly.<br><br>RESULTS: The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity of the countries to manage and adapt in the face of such risks. Citation: McIver L, Kim R, Woodward A, Hales S, Spickett J, Katscherian D, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Kim H, Iddings S, Naicker J, Bambrick H, McMichael AJ, Ebi KL. 2016. Health impacts of climate change in Pacific island countries: a regional assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities. Environ Health Perspect 124:1707-1714;&#x2002;http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509756.}, }
@article {pmid27080908, year = {2016}, author = {Zhang, C and Jansen, M and De Meester, L and Stoks, R}, title = {Energy storage and fecundity explain deviations from ecological stoichiometry predictions under global warming and size-selective predation.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {85}, number = {6}, pages = {1431-1441}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12531}, pmid = {27080908}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropod Proteins/metabolism ; Body Size ; Carbohydrate Metabolism ; Daphnia/*physiology ; *Energy Metabolism ; *Fertility ; Fishes/*physiology ; Food Chain ; *Global Warming ; *Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {A key challenge for ecologists is to predict how single and joint effects of global warming and predation risk translate from the individual level up to ecosystem functions. Recently, stoichiometric theory linked these levels through changes in body stoichiometry, predicting that both higher temperatures and predation risk induce shifts in energy storage (increases in C-rich carbohydrates and reductions in N-rich proteins) and body stoichiometry (increases in C : N and C : P). This promising theory, however, is rarely tested and assumes that prey will divert energy away from reproduction under predation risk, while under size-selective predation, prey instead increase fecundity. We exposed the water flea Daphnia magna to 4 °C warming and fish predation risk to test whether C-rich carbohydrates increase and N-rich proteins decrease, and as a result, C : N and C : P increase under warming and predation risk. Unexpectedly, warming decreased body C : N, which was driven by reductions in C-rich fat and sugar contents while the protein content did not change. This reflected a trade-off where the accelerated intrinsic growth rate under warming occurred at the cost of a reduced energy storage. Warming reduced C : N less and only increased C : P and N : P in the fish-period Daphnia. These evolved stoichiometric responses to warming were largely driven by stronger warming-induced reductions in P than in C and N and could be explained by the better ability to deal with warming in the fish-period Daphnia. In contrast to theory predictions, body C : N decreased under predation risk due to a strong increase in the N-rich protein content that offsets the increase in C-rich fat content. The higher investment in fecundity (more N-rich eggs) under predation risk contributed to this stronger increase in protein content. Similarly, the lower body C : N of pre-fish Daphnia also matched their higher fecundity. Warming and predation risk independently shaped body stoichiometry, largely by changing levels of energy storage molecules. Our results highlight that two widespread patterns, the trade-off between rapid development and energy storage and the increased investment in reproduction under size-selective predation, cause predictable deviations from current ecological stoichiometry theory.}, }
@article {pmid27475053, year = {2016}, author = {Özkan, &#x15e; and Vitali, A and Lacetera, N and Amon, B and Bannink, A and Bartley, DJ and Blanco-Penedo, I and de Haas, Y and Dufrasne, I and Elliott, J and Eory, V and Fox, NJ and Garnsworthy, PC and Gengler, N and Hammami, H and Kyriazakis, I and Leclère, D and Lessire, F and Macleod, M and Robinson, TP and Ruete, A and Sandars, DL and Shrestha, S and Stott, AW and Twardy, S and Vanrobays, ML and Ahmadi, BV and Weindl, I and Wheelhouse, N and Williams, AG and Williams, HW and Wilson, AJ and Østergaard, S and Kipling, RP}, title = {Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {151}, number = {}, pages = {130-144}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2016.07.033}, pmid = {27475053}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Livestock ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27370903, year = {2016}, author = {Mosedale, JR and Abernethy, KE and Smart, RE and Wilson, RJ and Maclean, IM}, title = {Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {11}, pages = {3814-3828}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13406}, pmid = {27370903}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Vitis ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The cultivation of grapevines for winemaking, known as viticulture, is widely cited as a climate-sensitive agricultural system that has been used as an indicator of both historic and contemporary climate change. Numerous studies have questioned the viability of major viticulture regions under future climate projections. We review the methods used to study the impacts of climate change on viticulture in the light of what is known about the effects of climate and weather on the yields and quality of vineyard harvests. Many potential impacts of climate change on viticulture, particularly those associated with a change in climate variability or seasonal weather patterns, are rarely captured. Key biophysical characteristics of viticulture are often unaccounted for, including the variability of grapevine phenology and the exploitation of microclimatic niches that permit successful cultivation under suboptimal macroclimatic conditions. We consider how these same biophysical characteristics permit a variety of strategies by which viticulture can adapt to changing climatic conditions. The ability to realize these strategies, however, is affected by uneven exposure to risks across the winemaking sector, and the evolving capacity for decision-making within and across organizational boundaries. The role grape provenance plays in shaping perceptions of wine value and quality illustrates how conflicts of interest influence decisions about adaptive strategies within the industry. We conclude by considering what lessons can be taken from viticulture for studies of climate change impacts and the capacity for adaptation in other agricultural and natural systems.}, }
@article {pmid27254813, year = {2016}, author = {Fraga, H and García de Cortázar Atauri, I and Malheiro, AC and Santos, JA}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {11}, pages = {3774-3788}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13382}, pmid = {27254813}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Forecasting ; Italy ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen ; Water ; }, abstract = {Viticulture is a key socio-economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980-2005) and future (2041-2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO2 physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO2 partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector.}, }
@article {pmid27214030, year = {2016}, author = {Skelsey, P and Cooke, DE and Lynott, JS and Lees, AK}, title = {Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {11}, pages = {3724-3738}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13368}, pmid = {27214030}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Phytophthora infestans ; Plant Diseases ; Risk ; Scotland ; Seasons ; *Solanum tuberosum ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on dispersal processes is largely ignored in risk assessments for crop diseases, as inoculum is generally assumed to be ubiquitous and nonlimiting. We suggest that consideration of the impact of climate change on the connectivity of crops for inoculum transmission may provide additional explanatory and predictive power in disease risk assessments, leading to improved recommendations for agricultural adaptation to climate change. In this study, a crop-growth model was combined with aerobiological models and a newly developed infection risk model to provide a framework for quantifying the impact of future climates on the risk of disease occurrence and spread. The integrated model uses standard meteorological variables and can be easily adapted to various crop pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum. In a case study, the framework was used with data defining the spatial distribution of potato crops in Scotland and spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future connectivity of crop distributions for Phytophthora infestans (causal agent of potato late blight) inoculum and the subsequent risk of infection. Projections and control recommendations are provided for multiple combinations of potato cultivar and CO2 emissions scenario, and temporal and spatial averaging schemes. Overall, we found that relative to current climatic conditions, the risk of late blight will increase in Scotland during the first half of the potato growing season and decrease during the second half. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of climate change-driven shifts in the cropping season. Advancing the start of the potato growing season by 1 month proved to be an effective strategy from both an agronomic and late blight management perspective.}, }
@article {pmid27178530, year = {2016}, author = {Boit, A and Sakschewski, B and Boysen, L and Cano-Crespo, A and Clement, J and Garcia-Alaniz, N and Kok, K and Kolb, M and Langerwisch, F and Rammig, A and Sachse, R and van Eupen, M and von Bloh, W and Clara Zemp, D and Thonicke, K}, title = {Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {11}, pages = {3689-3701}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13355}, pmid = {27178530}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Latin America ; }, abstract = {Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.}, }
@article {pmid27104650, year = {2016}, author = {Ford, KR and Harrington, CA and Bansal, S and Gould, PJ and St Clair, JB}, title = {Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {11}, pages = {3712-3723}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13328}, pmid = {27104650}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; North America ; *Plant Development ; *Pseudotsuga ; Seasons ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures ('forcing') typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures ('chilling') while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution.}, }
@article {pmid27029713, year = {2016}, author = {Dai, E and Wu, Z and Ge, Q and Xi, W and Wang, X}, title = {Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCP scenarios in southern China.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {11}, pages = {3642-3661}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13307}, pmid = {27029713}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; }, abstract = {In the past three decades, our global climate has been experiencing unprecedented warming. This warming has and will continue to significantly influence the structure and function of forest ecosystems. While studies have been conducted to explore the possible responses of forest landscapes to future climate change, the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios under the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have not been widely used in quantitative modeling research of forest landscapes. We used LANDIS-II, a forest dynamic landscape model, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II), to simulate spatial interactions and ecological succession processes under RCP scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. We also modeled a control scenario of extrapolating current climate conditions to examine changes in distribution and aboveground biomass (AGB) among five different forest types for the period of 2010-2100 in Taihe County in southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. The results of the simulation show that climate change will significantly influence forest distribution and AGB. (i) Evergreen broad-leaved forests will expand into Chinese fir and Chinese weeping cypress forests. The area percentages of evergreen broad-leaved forests under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the control scenarios account for 18.25%, 18.71%, 18.85% and 17.46% of total forest area, respectively. (ii) The total AGB under RCP4.5 will reach its highest level by the year 2100. Compared with the control scenarios, the total AGB under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increases by 24.1%, 64.2% and 29.8%, respectively. (iii) The forest total AGB increases rapidly at first and then decreases slowly on the temporal dimension. (iv) Even though the fluctuation patterns of total AGB will remain consistent under various future climatic scenarios, there will be certain responsive differences among various forest types.}, }
@article {pmid27580056, year = {2016}, author = {Liu, W and Zhao, Y and You, J and Qi, D and Zhou, Y and Chen, J and Song, Z}, title = {Morphological and Genetic Variation along a North-to-South Transect in Stipa purpurea, a Dominant Grass on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Implications for Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {e0161972}, pmid = {27580056}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Climate Change ; DNA, Plant/*genetics ; Gene Flow ; *Genetic Variation ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Models, Theoretical ; Poaceae/genetics/*physiology ; Population Density ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Estimating the potential of species to cope with rapid environmental climatic modifications is of vital importance for determining their future viability and conservation. The variation between existing populations along a climatic gradient may predict how a species will respond to future climate change. Stipa purpurea is a dominant grass species in the alpine steppe and meadow of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Ecological niche modelling was applied to S. purpurea, and its distribution was found to be most strongly correlated with the annual precipitation and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. We established a north-to-south transect over 2000 km long on the QTP reflecting the gradients of temperature and precipitation, and then we estimated the morphological by sampling fruited tussocks and genetic divergence by using 11 microsatellite markers between 20 populations along the transect. Reproductive traits (the number of seeds and reproductive shoots), the reproductive-vegetative growth ratio and the length of roots in the S. purpurea populations varied significantly with climate variables. S. purpurea has high genetic diversity (He = 0.585), a large effective population size (Ne >1,000), and a considerable level of gene flow between populations. The S. purpurea populations have a mosaic genetic structure: some distant populations (over 1000 km apart) clustered genetically, whereas closer populations (< 100 km apart) had diverged significantly, suggesting local adaptation. Asymmetrical long-distance inter-population gene flow occurs along the sampling transect and might be mediated by seed dispersal via migratory herbivores, such as the chiru (Pantholops hodgsonii). These findings suggest that population performance variation and gene flow both facilitate the response of S. purpurea to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27579608, year = {2016}, author = {Braun McNeill, J and Avens, L and Goodman Hall, A and Goshe, LR and Harms, CA and Owens, DW}, title = {Female-Bias in a Long-Term Study of a Species with Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination: Monitoring Sex Ratios for Climate Change Research.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {e0160911}, pmid = {27579608}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Male ; North Carolina ; *Sex Determination Processes ; *Sex Ratio ; *Turtles ; }, abstract = {Alterations have occurred and continue to manifest in the Earth's biota as a result of climate change. Animals exhibiting temperature dependent sex determination (TSD), including sea turtles, are perhaps most vulnerable to a warming of the Earth as highly skewed sex ratios can result, potentially leading to population extinction resulting from decreased male recruitment. Recent studies have begun to quantify climate change impacts to sea turtle populations, especially in terms of predicting effects on hatchling sex ratios. However, given the inherent difficulty in studying sex ratios at this life stage, a more accurate assessment of changes in population sex ratios might be derived by evaluating the juvenile portion of foraging aggregations. We investigated the long-term trend in sex ratio of a juvenile loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle population inhabiting Pamlico and Core Sounds, North Carolina, USA. We used plasma testosterone reference ranges measured using radioimmunoassay (RIA) to assign sex for 959 turtles and confirmed sex assignment of a subset (N = 58) of the sampled turtles through laparoscopic examination of their gonads. Our results demonstrate that for this particular population of loggerheads, sex ratios (3Females:1Male) had not significantly changed over a 10 year period (1998-2007), nor showed any significant difference among 5-cm straight carapace length (SCL) size classes. Ultimately, these findings provide a basis for comparison with future sex ratios, and highlight the importance of establishing similar long-term studies monitoring secondary, rather than primary, sex ratios, so that needed mitigation measures to climate change impacts can be implemented.}, }
@article {pmid27577688, year = {2016}, author = {Piferrer, F}, title = {Altered sex ratios in response to climate change-Who will fall into the (epigenetic) trap? (Comment on DOI 10.1002/bies.201600058).}, journal = {BioEssays : news and reviews in molecular, cellular and developmental biology}, volume = {38}, number = {10}, pages = {939}, doi = {10.1002/bies.201600172}, pmid = {27577688}, issn = {1521-1878}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Epigenomics ; Humans ; *Sex Ratio ; }, }
@article {pmid27576351, year = {2016}, author = {Turner, LM and Alsterberg, C and Turner, AD and Girisha, SK and Rai, A and Havenhand, JN and Venugopal, MN and Karunasagar, I and Godhe, A}, title = {Pathogenic marine microbes influence the effects of climate change on a commercially important tropical bivalve.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {32413}, pmid = {27576351}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/pathogenicity ; Bacteria/pathogenicity ; Bivalvia/growth &amp; development/*microbiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Marine Toxins ; }, abstract = {There is growing evidence that climate change will increase the prevalence of toxic algae and harmful bacteria, which can accumulate in marine bivalves. However, we know little about any possible interactions between exposure to these microorganisms and the effects of climate change on bivalve health, or about how this may affect the bivalve toxin-pathogen load. In mesocosm experiments, mussels, Perna viridis, were subjected to simulated climate change (warming and/or hyposalinity) and exposed to harmful bacteria and/or toxin-producing dinoflagellates. We found significant interactions between climate change and these microbes on metabolic and/or immunobiological function and toxin-pathogen load in mussels. Surprisingly, however, these effects were virtually eliminated when mussels were exposed to both harmful microorganisms simultaneously. This study is the first to examine the effects of climate change on determining mussel toxin-pathogen load in an ecologically relevant, multi-trophic context. The results may have considerable implications for seafood safety.}, }
@article {pmid27574700, year = {2016}, author = {Stevanović, M and Popp, A and Lotze-Campen, H and Dietrich, JP and Müller, C and Bonsch, M and Schmitz, C and Bodirsky, BL and Humpenöder, F and Weindl, I}, title = {The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {2}, number = {8}, pages = {e1501452}, pmid = {27574700}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; Climate Change/*economics ; Commerce/economics ; Computer Simulation ; Crops, Agricultural/*economics ; Environment ; Food Supply/economics ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered.}, }
@article {pmid27573740, year = {2016}, author = {Collier, R}, title = {CMA GC: Doctors must engage in climate change action.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {188}, number = {13}, pages = {E303}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-5318}, pmid = {27573740}, issn = {1488-2329}, }
@article {pmid27572690, year = {2016}, author = {Dhyani, S and Thummarukuddy, M}, title = {Ecological engineering for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {23}, number = {19}, pages = {20049-20052}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-016-7517-0}, pmid = {27572690}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid27571508, year = {2016}, author = {Ruiz, EF and Torres-Román, JS}, title = {Tackling vulnerability in climate change for Peruvian public health.}, journal = {Medwave}, volume = {16}, number = {7}, pages = {e6518}, doi = {10.5867/medwave.2016.07.6518}, pmid = {27571508}, issn = {0717-6384}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Peru ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid27565529, year = {2016}, author = {González-Alcaraz, MN and van Gestel, CAM}, title = {Toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus crypticus changes under a global warming perspective: Variations in air temperature and soil moisture content.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {573}, number = {}, pages = {203-211}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.061}, pmid = {27565529}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Forecasting ; Global Warming ; Metalloids/metabolism/*toxicity ; Metals, Heavy/metabolism/*toxicity ; Oligochaeta/*drug effects/metabolism ; Reproduction/drug effects ; Soil/*chemistry/standards ; Soil Pollutants/metabolism/*toxicity ; Temperature ; Water/analysis ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to assess how the current global warming perspective, with increasing air temperature (20°C vs. 25°C) and decreasing soil moisture content (50% vs. 30% of the soil water holding capacity, WHC), affected the toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus crypticus. Enchytraeids were exposed for 21d to a dilution series of the agricultural soil with Lufa 2.2 control soil under four climate situations: 20°C+50% WHC (standard conditions), 20°C+30% WHC, 25°C+50% WHC, and 25°C+30% WHC. Survival, reproduction and bioaccumulation of As, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were obtained as endpoints. Reproduction was more sensitive to both climate factors and metal(loid) pollution. High soil salinity (electrical conductivity~3dSm[-1]) and clay texture, even without the presence of high metal(loid) concentrations, affected enchytraeid performance especially at drier conditions (≥80% reduction in reproduction). The toxicity of the agricultural soil increased at drier conditions (10% reduction in EC10 and EC50 values for the effect on enchytraeid reproduction). Changes in enchytraeid performance were accompanied by changes in As, Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn bioaccumulation, with lower body concentrations at drier conditions probably due to greater competition with soluble salts in the case of Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn. This study shows that apart from high metal(loid) concentrations other soil properties (e.g. salinity and texture) may be partially responsible for the toxicity of metal(loid)-polluted soils to soil invertebrates, especially under changing climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid27563502, year = {2016}, author = {Hudson, SW}, title = {Insights in Public Health: Climate Change: A Public Health Challenge and Opportunity for Hawai'i.}, journal = {Hawai'i journal of medicine &amp; public health : a journal of Asia Pacific Medicine &amp; Public Health}, volume = {75}, number = {8}, pages = {245-250}, pmid = {27563502}, issn = {2165-8242}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*standards/trends ; Hawaii ; Health Status ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Public Health/*standards/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid27562030, year = {2017}, author = {Ren, S and Chen, X and An, S}, title = {Assessing plant senescence reflectance index-retrieved vegetation phenology and its spatiotemporal response to climate change in the Inner Mongolian Grassland.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {61}, number = {4}, pages = {601-612}, pmid = {27562030}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Grassland ; *Plant Development ; Satellite Imagery ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Plant phenology is a key link for controlling interactions between climate change and biogeochemical cycles. Satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has been extensively used to detect plant phenology at regional scales. Here, we introduced a new vegetation index, plant senescence reflectance index (PSRI), and determined PSRI-derived start (SOS) and end (EOS) dates of the growing season using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data from 2000 to 2011 in the Inner Mongolian Grassland. Then, we validated the reliability of PSRI-derived SOS and EOS dates using NDVI-derived SOS and EOS dates. Moreover, we conducted temporal and spatial correlation analyses between PSRI-derived SOS/EOS date and climatic factors and revealed spatiotemporal patterns of PSRI-derived SOS and EOS dates across the entire research region at pixel scales. Results show that PSRI has similar performance with NDVI in extracting SOS and EOS dates in the Inner Mongolian Grassland. Precipitation regime is the key climate driver of interannual variation of grassland phenology, while temperature and precipitation regimes are the crucial controlling factors of spatial differentiation of grassland phenology. Thus, PSRI-derived vegetation phenology can effectively reflect land surface vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change. Moreover, a significant linear trend of PSRI-derived SOS and EOS dates was detected only at small portions of pixels, which is consistent with that of greenup and brownoff dates of herbaceous plant species in the Inner Mongolian Grassland. Overall, PSRI is a useful and robust metric in addition to NDVI for monitoring land surface grassland phenology.}, }
@article {pmid27561209, year = {2017}, author = {Okazaki, RR and Towle, EK and van Hooidonk, R and Mor, C and Winter, RN and Piggot, AM and Cunning, R and Baker, AC and Klaus, JS and Swart, PK and Langdon, C}, title = {Species-specific responses to climate change and community composition determine future calcification rates of Florida Keys reefs.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {1023-1035}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13481}, pmid = {27561209}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa ; Caribbean Region ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Florida ; Population Dynamics ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change compromises reef growth as a result of increasing temperatures and ocean acidification. Scleractinian corals vary in their sensitivity to these variables, suggesting species composition will influence how reef communities respond to future climate change. Because data are lacking for many species, most studies that model future reef growth rely on uniform scleractinian calcification sensitivities to temperature and ocean acidification. To address this knowledge gap, calcification of twelve common and understudied Caribbean coral species was measured for two months under crossed temperatures (27, 30.3 °C) and CO2 partial pressures (pCO2) (400, 900, 1300 μatm). Mixed-effects models of calcification for each species were then used to project community-level scleractinian calcification using Florida Keys reef composition data and IPCC AR5 ensemble climate model data. Three of the four most abundant species, Orbicella faveolata, Montastraea cavernosa, and Porites astreoides, had negative calcification responses to both elevated temperature and pCO2 . In the business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario, reefs with high abundances of these species had projected end-of-century declines in scleractinian calcification of >50% relative to present-day rates. Siderastrea siderea, the other most common species, was insensitive to both temperature and pCO2 within the levels tested here. Reefs dominated by this species had the most stable end-of-century growth. Under more optimistic scenarios of reduced CO2 emissions, calcification rates throughout the Florida Keys declined <20% by 2100. Under the most extreme emissions scenario, projected declines were highly variable among reefs, ranging 10-100%. Without considering bleaching, reef growth will likely decline on most reefs, especially where resistant species like S. siderea are not already dominant. This study demonstrates how species composition influences reef community responses to climate change and how reduced CO2 emissions can limit future declines in reef calcification.}, }
@article {pmid27558776, year = {2016}, author = {Handfield, T and Huang, PH and Simpson, RM}, title = {Climate change, cooperation and moral bioenhancement.}, journal = {Journal of medical ethics}, volume = {42}, number = {11}, pages = {742-747}, doi = {10.1136/medethics-2016-103593}, pmid = {27558776}, issn = {1473-4257}, abstract = {The human faculty of moral judgement is not well suited to address problems, like climate change, that are global in scope and remote in time. Advocates of 'moral bioenhancement' have proposed that we should investigate the use of medical technologies to make human beings more trusting and altruistic and hence more willing to cooperate in efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change. We survey recent accounts of the proximate and ultimate causes of human cooperation in order to assess the prospects for bioenhancement. We identify a number of issues that are likely to be significant obstacles to effective bioenhancement, as well as areas for future research.}, }
@article {pmid27557093, year = {2017}, author = {Lake, IR and Jones, NR and Agnew, M and Goodess, CM and Giorgi, F and Hamaoui-Laguel, L and Semenov, MA and Solmon, F and Storkey, J and Vautard, R and Epstein, MM}, title = {Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {125}, number = {3}, pages = {385-391}, pmid = {27557093}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {BBS/E/C/00004938/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Allergens/*analysis ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Europe/epidemiology ; Hypersensitivity ; *Pollen ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe.<br><br>METHODS: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391;&#x2002;http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.}, }
@article {pmid27550861, year = {2017}, author = {Nadeau, CP and Urban, MC and Bridle, JR}, title = {Coarse climate change projections for species living in a fine-scaled world.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {12-24}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13475}, pmid = {27550861}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Population Dynamics ; South America ; }, abstract = {Accurately predicting biological impacts of climate change is necessary to guide policy. However, the resolution of climate data could be affecting the accuracy of climate change impact assessments. Here, we review the spatial and temporal resolution of climate data used in impact assessments and demonstrate that these resolutions are often too coarse relative to biologically relevant scales. We then develop a framework that partitions climate into three important components: trend, variance, and autocorrelation. We apply this framework to map different global climate regimes and identify where coarse climate data is most and least likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments. We show that impact assessments for many large mammals and birds use climate data with a spatial resolution similar to the biologically relevant area encompassing population dynamics. Conversely, impact assessments for many small mammals, herpetofauna, and plants use climate data with a spatial resolution that is orders of magnitude larger than the area encompassing population dynamics. Most impact assessments also use climate data with a coarse temporal resolution. We suggest that climate data with a coarse spatial resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in climates with high spatial trend and variance (e.g., much of western North and South America) and the least in climates with low spatial trend and variance (e.g., the Great Plains of the USA). Climate data with a coarse temporal resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in the northern half of the northern hemisphere where temporal climatic variance is high. Our framework provides one way to identify where improving the resolution of climate data will have the largest impact on the accuracy of biological predictions under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27548838, year = {2016}, author = {Consuegra, S and Rodríguez López, CM}, title = {Epigenetic-induced alterations in sex-ratios in response to climate change: An epigenetic trap?.}, journal = {BioEssays : news and reviews in molecular, cellular and developmental biology}, volume = {38}, number = {10}, pages = {950-958}, doi = {10.1002/bies.201600058}, pmid = {27548838}, issn = {1521-1878}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Epigenesis, Genetic ; Plants/genetics ; Sex Determination Processes/*genetics ; *Sex Ratio ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {We hypothesize that under the predicted scenario of climate change epigenetically mediated environmental sex determination could become an epigenetic trap. Epigenetically regulated environmental sex determination is a mechanism by which species can modulate their breeding strategies to accommodate environmental change. Growing evidence suggests that epigenetic mechanisms may play a key role in phenotypic plasticity and in the rapid adaptation of species to environmental change, through the capacity of organisms to maintain a non-genetic plastic memory of the environmental and ecological conditions experienced by their parents. However, inherited epigenetic variation could also be maladaptive, becoming an epigenetic trap. This is because environmental sex determination can alter sex ratios by increasing the survival of one of the sexes at the expense of negative fitness consequences for the other, which could lead not only to the collapse of natural populations, but also have an impact in farmed animal and plant species.}, }
@article {pmid27547522, year = {2016}, author = {Duan, RY and Kong, XQ and Huang, MY and Varela, S and Ji, X}, title = {The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {e2185}, pmid = {27547522}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137-4,124 m to 286-4,396 m in the 2050s or 314-4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.}, }
@article {pmid27547213, year = {2016}, author = {Barnett, KL and Facey, SL}, title = {Grasslands, Invertebrates, and Precipitation: A Review of the Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {1196}, pmid = {27547213}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Invertebrates are the main components of faunal diversity in grasslands, playing substantial roles in ecosystem processes including nutrient cycling and pollination. Grassland invertebrate communities are heavily dependent on the plant diversity and production within a given system. Climate change models predict alterations in precipitation patterns, both in terms of the amount of total inputs and the frequency, seasonality and intensity with which these inputs occur, which will impact grassland productivity. Given the ecological, economic and biodiversity value of grasslands, and their importance globally as areas of carbon storage and agricultural development, it is in our interest to understand how predicted alterations in precipitation patterns will affect grasslands and the invertebrate communities they contain. Here, we review the findings from manipulative and observational studies which have examined invertebrate responses to altered rainfall, with a particular focus on large-scale field experiments employing precipitation manipulations. Given the tight associations between invertebrate communities and their underlying plant communities, invertebrate responses to altered precipitation generally mirror those of the plants in the system. However, there is evidence that species responses to future precipitation changes will be idiosyncratic and context dependent across trophic levels, challenging our ability to make reliable predictions about how grassland communities will respond to future climatic changes, without further investigation. Thus, moving forward, we recommend increased consideration of invertebrate communities in current and future rainfall manipulation platforms, as well as the adoption of new technologies to aid such studies.}, }
@article {pmid27545818, year = {2017}, author = {Woodworth-Jefcoats, PA and Polovina, JJ and Drazen, JC}, title = {Climate change is projected to reduce carrying capacity and redistribute species richness in North Pacific pelagic marine ecosystems.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {1000-1008}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13471}, pmid = {27545818}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Fishes ; Pacific Ocean ; Zooplankton ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to impact all aspects of marine ecosystems, including fisheries. Here, we use output from a suite of 11 earth system models to examine projected changes in two ecosystem-defining variables: temperature and food availability. In particular, we examine projected changes in epipelagic temperature and, as a proxy for food availability, zooplankton density. We find that under RCP8.5, a high business-as-usual greenhouse gas scenario, increasing temperatures may alter the spatial distribution of tuna and billfish species richness across the North Pacific basin. Furthermore, warmer waters and declining zooplankton densities may act together to lower carrying capacity for commercially valuable fish by 2-5% per decade over the 21st century. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the magnitude, composition, and distribution of commercial fish catch across the pelagic North Pacific. Such changes will in turn ultimately impact commercial fisheries' economic value. Fishery managers should anticipate these climate impacts to ensure sustainable fishery yields and livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid27543682, year = {2017}, author = {Ikeda, DH and Max, TL and Allan, GJ and Lau, MK and Shuster, SM and Whitham, TG}, title = {Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {164-176}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13470}, pmid = {27543682}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Forecasting ; Genetic Variation ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in species that span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils and climate). Moreover, common garden studies have demonstrated a covariance between neutral markers and functional traits associated with a species' ability to adapt to environmental change. We therefore predicted that genetically distinct populations would respond differently to climate change, resulting in predicted distributions with little overlap. To test whether genetic information improves our ability to predict a species' niche space, we created genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), a widespread tree species in which prior common garden experiments demonstrate strong evidence for local adaptation. Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs predicted population occurrences with up to 12-fold greater accuracy than models without genetic information; (ii) tests of niche similarity revealed that three ecotypes, identified on the basis of neutral genetic markers and locally adapted populations, are associated with differences in climate; (iii) our forecasts indicate that ongoing climate change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart in geographic space, resulting in greater niche divergence; (iv) ecotypes that currently exhibit the largest geographic distribution and niche breadth appear to be buffered the most from climate change. As diverse agents of selection shape genetic variability and structure within species, we argue that gENMs will lead to more accurate predictions of species distributions under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27539825, year = {2016}, author = {Gampe, D and Nikulin, G and Ludwig, R}, title = {Using an ensemble of regional climate models to assess climate change impacts on water scarcity in European river basins.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {573}, number = {}, pages = {1503-1518}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.053}, pmid = {27539825}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change will likely increase pressure on the water balances of Mediterranean basins due to decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures. To overcome the issue of data scarcity the hydrological relevant variables total runoff, surface evaporation, precipitation and air temperature are taken from climate model simulations. The ensemble applied in this study consists of 22 simulations, derived from different combinations of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) forcing different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) at ~12km horizontal resolution provided through the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Four river basins (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava) are selected and climate change signals for the future period 2035-2065 as compared to the reference period 1981-2010 are investigated. Decreased runoff and evaporation indicate increased water scarcity over the Ebro and the Evrotas, as well as the southern parts of the Adige and the Sava, resulting from a temperature increase of 1-3° and precipitation decrease of up to 30%. Most severe changes are projected for the summer months indicating further pressure on the river basins already at least partly characterized by flow intermittency. The widely used Falkenmark indicator is presented and confirms this tendency and shows the necessity for spatially distributed analysis and high resolution projections. Related uncertainties are addressed by the means of a variance decomposition and model agreement to determine the robustness of the projections. The study highlights the importance of high resolution climate projections and represents a feasible approach to assess climate impacts on water scarcity also in regions that suffer from data scarcity.}, }
@article {pmid27536533, year = {2016}, author = {Abeysingha, NS and Singh, M and Islam, A and Sehgal, VK}, title = {Climate change impacts on irrigated rice and wheat production in Gomti River basin of India: a case study.}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {1250}, pmid = {27536533}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {Potential future impacts of climate change on irrigated rice and wheat production and their evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements in the Gomti River basin were assessed by integrating a widely used hydrological model "Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)" and climate change scenario generated from MIROC (HiRes) global climate model. SWAT model was calibrated and validated using monthly streamflow data of four spatially distributed gauging stations and district wise wheat and rice yields data for the districts located within the basin. Simulation results showed an increase in mean annual rice yield in the range of 5.5-6.7, 16.6-20.2 and 26-33.4 % during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, mean annual wheat yield is also likely to increase by 13.9-15.4, 23.6-25.6 and 25.2-27.9 % for the same future time periods. Evapotranspiration for both wheat and rice is projected to increase in the range of 3-9.6 and 7.8-16.3 %, respectively. With increase in rainfall during rice growing season, irrigation water allocation for rice is likely to decrease (<5 %) in future periods, but irrigation water allocation for wheat is likely to increase by 17.0-45.3 % in future periods.}, }
@article {pmid27534686, year = {2016}, author = {Boyce, R and Reyes, R and Matte, M and Ntaro, M and Mulogo, E and Metlay, JP and Band, L and Siedner, MJ}, title = {Severe Flooding and Malaria Transmission in the Western Ugandan Highlands: Implications for Disease Control in an Era of Global Climate Change.}, journal = {The Journal of infectious diseases}, volume = {214}, number = {9}, pages = {1403-1410}, pmid = {27534686}, issn = {1537-6613}, support = {K23 MH099916/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Female ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Male ; Uganda/epidemiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There are several mechanisms by which global climate change may impact malaria transmission. We sought to assess how the increased frequency of extreme precipitation events associated with global climate change will influence malaria transmission in highland areas of East Africa.<br><br>METHODS: &#x2003;We used a differences-in-differences, quasi-experimental design to examine spatial variability in the incidence rate of laboratory-confirmed malaria cases and malaria-related hospitalizations between villages (1) at high versus low elevations, (2) with versus without rivers, and (3) upstream versus downstream before and after severe flooding that occurred in Kasese District, Western Region, Uganda, in May 2013.<br><br>RESULTS: &#x2003;During the study period, 7596 diagnostic tests were performed, and 1285 patients were admitted with a diagnosis of malaria. We observed that extreme flooding resulted in an increase of approximately 30% in the risk of an individual having a positive result of a malaria diagnostic test in the postflood period in villages bordering a flood-affected river, compared with villages farther from a river, with a larger relative impact on upstream versus downstream villages (adjusted rate ratio, 1.91 vs 1.33).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: &#x2003;Extreme precipitation such as the flooding described here may pose significant challenges to malaria control programs and will demand timely responses to mitigate deleterious impacts on human health.}, }
@article {pmid27534684, year = {2016}, author = {Caminade, C and McIntyre, MK and Jones, AE}, title = {Climate Change and Vector-borne Diseases: Where Are We Next Heading?.}, journal = {The Journal of infectious diseases}, volume = {214}, number = {9}, pages = {1300-1301}, doi = {10.1093/infdis/jiw368}, pmid = {27534684}, issn = {1537-6613}, support = {MR/M0501633/1//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid27533426, year = {2016}, author = {Smith, KR and Woodward, A and Lemke, B and Otto, M and Chang, CJ and Mance, AA and Balmes, J and Kjellstrom, T}, title = {The last Summer Olympics? Climate change, health, and work outdoors.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {388}, number = {10045}, pages = {642-644}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31335-6}, pmid = {27533426}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Construction Industry ; Heat Stress Disorders/*etiology ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Humidity ; *Running ; Seasons ; Sports ; Uncertainty ; *Work ; }, }
@article {pmid27532151, year = {2016}, author = {Ahn, JJ and Son, Y and He, Y and Lee, E and Park, YL}, title = {Effects of Temperature on Development and Voltinism of Chaetodactylus krombeini (Acari: Chaetodactylidae): Implications for Climate Change Impacts.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {e0161319}, pmid = {27532151}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acari/*embryology/*growth &amp; development ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Larva/*growth &amp; development ; Models, Animal ; Nymph/*growth &amp; development ; United States ; }, abstract = {Temperature plays an important role in the growth and development of arthropods, and thus the current trend of climate change will alter their biology and species distribution. We used Chaetodactylus krombeini (Acari: Chaetodactylidae), a cleptoparasitic mite associated with Osmia bees (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), as a model organism to investigate how temperature affects the development and voltinism of C. krombeini in the eastern United States. The effects of temperature on the stage-specific development of C. krombeini were determined at seven constant temperatures (16.1, 20.2, 24.1, 27.5, 30.0, 32.4 and 37.8°C). Parameters for stage-specific development, such as threshold temperatures and thermal constant, were determined by using empirical models. Results of this study showed that C. krombeini eggs developed successfully to adult at all temperatures tested except 37.8°C. The nonlinear and linear empirical models were applied to describe quantitatively the relationship between temperature and development of each C. krombeini stage. The nonlinear Lactin model estimated optimal temperatures as 31.4, 32.9, 32.6 and 32.5°C for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. In the linear model, the lower threshold temperatures were estimated to be 9.9, 14.7, 13.0 and 12.4°C for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. The thermal constant for each stage completion were 61.5, 28.1, 64.8 and 171.1 degree days for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. Under the future climate scenarios, the number of generations (i.e., voltinism) would increase more likely by 1.5 to 2.0 times by the year of 2100 according to simulation. The findings herein firstly provided comprehensive data on thermal development of C. krombeini and implications for the management of C. krombeini populations under global warming were discussed. *Scientific Article No. 3278 of the West Virginia Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station, Morgantown, West Virginia.}, }
@article {pmid27532150, year = {2016}, author = {Kano, Y and Dudgeon, D and Nam, S and Samejima, H and Watanabe, K and Grudpan, C and Grudpan, J and Magtoon, W and Musikasinthorn, P and Nguyen, PT and Praxaysonbath, B and Sato, T and Shibukawa, K and Shimatani, Y and Suvarnaraksha, A and Tanaka, W and Thach, P and Tran, DD and Yamashita, T and Utsugi, K}, title = {Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {e0160151}, pmid = {27532150}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animals ; Asia, Southeastern ; *Biodiversity ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fisheries ; *Fishes ; Fresh Water ; *Global Warming ; *Power Plants ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Both hydropower dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity. While the extent of global warming may be reduced by a shift towards energy generation by large dams in order to reduce fossil-fuel use, such dams profoundly modify riverine habitats. Furthermore, the threats posed by dams and global warming will interact: for example, dams constrain range adjustments by fishes that might compensate for warming temperatures. Evaluation of their combined or synergistic effects is thus essential for adequate assessment of the consequences of planned water-resource developments. We made projections of the responses of 363 fish species within the Indo-Burma global biodiversity hotspot to the separate and joint impacts of dams and global warming. The hotspot encompasses the Lower Mekong Basin, which is the world's largest freshwater capture fishery. Projections for 81 dam-building scenarios revealed progressive impacts upon projected species richness, habitable area, and the proportion of threatened species as generating capacity increased. Projections from 126 global-warming scenarios included a rise in species richness, a reduction in habitable area, and an increase in the proportion of threatened species; however, there was substantial variation in the extent of these changes among warming projections. Projections from scenarios that combined the effects of dams and global warming were derived either by simply adding the two threats, or by combining them in a synergistic manner that took account of the likelihood that habitat shifts under global warming would be constrained by river fragmentation. Impacts on fish diversity under the synergistic projections were 10-20% higher than those attributable to additive scenarios, and were exacerbated as generating capacity increased-particularly if CO2 emissions remained high. The impacts of dams, especially those on river mainstreams, are likely to be greater, more predictable and more immediately pressing for fishes than the consequences of global warming. Limits upon dam construction should therefore be a priority action for conserving fish biodiversity in the Indo-Burma hotspot. This would minimize synergistic impacts attributable to dams plus global warming, and help ensure the continued provision of ecosystem services represented by the Lower Mekong fishery.}, }
@article {pmid27529820, year = {2016}, author = {Davies, HN and Beckley, LE and Kobryn, HT and Lombard, AT and Radford, B and Heyward, A}, title = {Integrating Climate Change Resilience Features into the Incremental Refinement of an Existing Marine Park.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {e0161094}, pmid = {27529820}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Aquatic Organisms ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Software ; }, abstract = {Marine protected area (MPA) designs are likely to require iterative refinement as new knowledge is gained. In particular, there is an increasing need to consider the effects of climate change, especially the ability of ecosystems to resist and/or recover from climate-related disturbances, within the MPA planning process. However, there has been limited research addressing the incorporation of climate change resilience into MPA design. This study used Marxan conservation planning software with fine-scale shallow water (<20 m) bathymetry and habitat maps, models of major benthic communities for deeper water, and comprehensive human use information from Ningaloo Marine Park in Western Australia to identify climate change resilience features to integrate into the incremental refinement of the marine park. The study assessed the representation of benthic habitats within the current marine park zones, identified priority areas of high resilience for inclusion within no-take zones and examined if any iterative refinements to the current no-take zones are necessary. Of the 65 habitat classes, 16 did not meet representation targets within the current no-take zones, most of which were in deeper offshore waters. These deeper areas also demonstrated the highest resilience values and, as such, Marxan outputs suggested minor increases to the current no-take zones in the deeper offshore areas. This work demonstrates that inclusion of fine-scale climate change resilience features within the design process for MPAs is feasible, and can be applied to future marine spatial planning practices globally.}, }
@article {pmid27527995, year = {2016}, author = {Stoddart, MC and Smith, J}, title = {The Endangered Arctic, the Arctic as Resource Frontier: Canadian News Media Narratives of Climate Change and the North.}, journal = {Canadian review of sociology = Revue canadienne de sociologie}, volume = {53}, number = {3}, pages = {316-336}, doi = {10.1111/cars.12111}, pmid = {27527995}, issn = {1755-618X}, abstract = {The Arctic is one of the most radically altered parts of the world due to climate change, with significant social and cultural impacts as a result. Using discourse network analysis and qualitative textual analysis of articles published in the Globe and Mail and National Post during the period 2006 to 2010, we identify and analyze key frames that interpret the implications of climate change on the Arctic. We examine Canadian national news media coverage to ask: How does the Arctic enter media coverage of climate change? Is there evidence of a climate justice discourse in relation to regional disparities in the risks and harms of climate change between northern and southern Canada? Climate change in the Arctic is often framed through the lens of Canadian national interests, which downplays climate-related social impacts that are already occurring at subnational political and geographical scales. L'Arctique est une des régions du monde la plus radicalement altérée par le changement climatique, menant comme résultat des importants changements sociaux et culturels. En utilisant l'analyse des réseaux de discours ainsi que l'analyse textuelle qualitative des articles publiés dans le Globe and Mail et le National Post de 2006 à 2010, nous identifions and analysons des cadres clés qui servent à interpréter les conséquences du changement climatique dans l'Arctique. Nous examinons la couverture des médias nationaux canadiens pour pouvoir demander : comment est-ce que l'Arctique s'insère dans la couverture médiatique du changement climatique? Est-ce qu'il y a de la preuve d'un discours de la justice climatique en relation des disparités régionales des risques et méfaits du changement climatique entre le Canada du nord et du sud? Le changement climatique dans l'Arctique est souvent encadré à travers le prisme des intérêts nationaux canadiens, ce qui minimise les impacts sociaux reliés au climat qui se produisent actuellement aux échelons sous-nationaux politiques et géographiques.}, }
@article {pmid27521050, year = {2016}, author = {Gray, SB and Brady, SM}, title = {Plant developmental responses to climate change.}, journal = {Developmental biology}, volume = {419}, number = {1}, pages = {64-77}, doi = {10.1016/j.ydbio.2016.07.023}, pmid = {27521050}, issn = {1095-564X}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/pharmacology ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect ; Periodicity ; *Plant Development/drug effects ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development ; Plant Roots/growth &amp; development ; Reproduction ; Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is multi-faceted, and includes changing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Here, we focus on the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, rising temperature, and drought stress and their interaction on plant developmental processes in leaves, roots, and in reproductive structures. While in some cases these responses are conserved across species, such as decreased root elongation, perturbation of root growth angle and reduced seed yield in response to drought, or an increase in root biomass in shallow soil in response to elevated CO2, most responses are variable within and between species and are dependent on developmental stage. These variable responses include species-specific thresholds that arrest development of reproductive structures, reduce root growth rate and the rate of leaf initiation and expansion in response to elevated temperature. Leaf developmental responses to elevated CO2 vary by cell type and by species. Variability also exists between C3 and C4 species in response to elevated CO2, especially in terms of growth and seed yield stimulation. At the molecular level, significantly less is understood regarding conservation and variability in molecular mechanisms underlying these traits. Abscisic acid-mediated changes in cell wall expansion likely underlie reductions in growth rate in response to drought, and changes in known regulators of flowering time likely underlie altered reproductive transitions in response to elevated temperature and CO2. Genes that underlie most other organ or tissue-level responses have largely only been identified in a single species in response to a single stress and their level of conservation is unknown. We conclude that there is a need for further research regarding the molecular mechanisms of plant developmental responses to climate change factors in general, and that this lack of data is particularly prevalent in the case of interactive effects of multiple climate change factors. As future growing conditions will likely expose plants to multiple climate change factors simultaneously, with a sum negative influence on global agriculture, further research in this area is critical.}, }
@article {pmid27518837, year = {2016}, author = {D'Amato, G and Vitale, C and Lanza, M and Molino, A and D'Amato, M}, title = {Climate change, air pollution, and allergic respiratory diseases: an update.}, journal = {Current opinion in allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {434-440}, doi = {10.1097/ACI.0000000000000301}, pmid = {27518837}, issn = {1473-6322}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Allergens/immunology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Plants ; Pollen/immunology ; Respiratory Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/*immunology ; Urbanization ; Vehicle Emissions ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The rising trend in prevalence of allergic respiratory disease and bronchial asthma, observed over the last decades, can be explained by changes occurring in the environment, with increasing presence of biologic, such as allergens, and chemical atmospheric trigger factors able to stimulate the sensitization and symptoms of these diseases.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Many studies have shown changes in production, dispersion, and allergen content of pollen and spores because of climate change with an increasing effect of aeroallergens on allergic patients.<br><br>SUMMARY: Over the last 50 years, global earth's temperature has markedly risen likely because of growing emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Major changes involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by human activity, have a major impact on the biosphere and human environment.Urbanization and high levels of vehicle emissions are correlated to an increase in the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy prevalent in people who live in urban areas compared with those who live in rural areas. Measures of mitigation need to be applied for reducing future impacts of climate change on our planet, but until global emissions continue to rise, adaptation to the impacts of future climate variability will also be required.}, }
@article {pmid27516957, year = {2016}, author = {Chowdhury, A and Maiti, SK and Bhattacharyya, S}, title = {How to communicate climate change 'impact and solutions' to vulnerable population of Indian Sundarbans? From theory to practice.}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {1219}, pmid = {27516957}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Global consciousness on climate change problems and adaptation revolves around the disparity of information sharing and communication gap between theoretical scientific knowledge at academic end and practical implications of these at the vulnerable populations' end. Coastal communities facing socio-economic stress, like densely populated Sundarbans, are the most affected part of the world, exposed to climate change problems and uncertainties. This article explores the successes of a socio-environmental project implemented at Indian Sundarbans targeted towards economic improvement and aims at communicating environmental conservation through organized community participation.<br><br>CASE DESCRIPTION: Participatory rural appraisal (PRA) and the wealth rank tool (WRT) were used to form a "group based organization" with 2100 vulnerable families to give them knowledge about capacity building, disaster management, resource conservation and sustainable agriculture practices. Training was conducted with the selected group members on resource conservation, institution building, alternative income generation activities (AIGA) like, Poultry, Small business, Tricycle van, Organic farming and disaster management in a participatory mode. The climate change 'problems-solutions' were communicated to this socio-economically marginalized and ostracized community through participatory educational theater (PET).<br><br>DISCUSSION AND EVALUATION: WRT revealed that 45 % of the population was under economic stress. Out of 2100 beneficiaries', 1015 beneficiaries' started organic farming, 133 beneficiaries' adopted poultry instead of resource exploitive livelihood and 71 beneficiaries' engaged themselves with small business, which was the success stories of this project. To mitigate disaster, 10-committees were formed and the endemic knowledge about climate change was recorded by participatory method validated through survey by structured questionnaire. As a part of this project 87 ha of naked deforested mudflat was reclaimed with endangered mangroves involving target community members aimed to sequester CO2, control soil erosion and act as a barrier during natural disasters.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This case study concluded that participatory method of communication, aiming not only to communicate theoretical knowledge, but also to devise adaptation strategies through conservation of endemic knowledge, popularizing sustainability through Micro Finance Institutions and promoting AIGA along with motivating vulnerable community to restore degraded forest lands, could be a effective solution to practically combat climate change problems.}, }
@article {pmid27516864, year = {2016}, author = {Aryal, A and Shrestha, UB and Ji, W and Ale, SB and Shrestha, S and Ingty, T and Maraseni, T and Cockfield, G and Raubenheimer, D}, title = {Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {4065-4075}, pmid = {27516864}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator-prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy-deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate-only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km(2)) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km(2) (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate-only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator-prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards - a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.}, }
@article {pmid27516852, year = {2016}, author = {Appelqvist, C and Havenhand, JN}, title = {A phenological shift in the time of recruitment of the shipworm, Teredo navalis L., mirrors marine climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {3862-3870}, pmid = {27516852}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {For many species, seasonal changes in key environmental variables such as food availability, light, and temperature drive the timing ("phenology") of major life-history events. Extensive evidence from terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats shows that global warming is changing the timings of many biological events; however, few of these studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the phenology of larval recruitment in marine invertebrates. Here, we studied temperature-related phenological shifts in the breeding season of the shipworm Teredo navalis (Mollusca, Bivalvia). We compared data for the recruitment period of T. navalis along the Swedish west coast during 2004-2006 with similar data from 1971-1973, and related differences in recruitment timing to changes in sea surface temperature over the same period. We found no significant shift in the timing of onset of recruitment over this ~30-year time span, but the end of recruitment was an average of 26 days later in recent years, leading to significantly longer recruitment periods. These changes correlated strongly with increased sea surface temperatures and coincided with published thermal tolerances for reproduction in T. navalis. Our findings are broadly comparable with other reports of phenological shifts in marine species, and suggest that warmer sea surface temperatures are increasing the likelihood of successful subannual reproduction and intensifying recruitment of T. navalis in this region.}, }
@article {pmid27516588, year = {2016}, author = {Stern, PC and Perkins, JH and Sparks, RE and Knox, RA}, title = {GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH. The challenge of climate-change neoskepticism.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {353}, number = {6300}, pages = {653-654}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaf6675}, pmid = {27516588}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid27515507, year = {2016}, author = {Canyon, DV and Speare, R and Burkle, FM}, title = {Forecasted Impact of Climate Change on Infectious Disease and Health Security in Hawaii by 2050.}, journal = {Disaster medicine and public health preparedness}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {797-804}, doi = {10.1017/dmp.2016.73}, pmid = {27515507}, issn = {1938-744X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*pathology ; Disasters ; Forecasting/*methods ; Hawaii ; Humans ; Public Health/methods/trends ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Climate change is expected to cause extensive shifts in the epidemiology of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Scenarios on the effects of climate change typically attribute altered distribution of communicable diseases to a rise in average temperature and altered incidence of infectious diseases to weather extremes.<br><br>METHODS: Recent evaluations of the effects of climate change on Hawaii have not explored this link. It may be expected that Hawaii's natural geography and robust water, sanitation, and health care infrastructure renders residents less vulnerable to many threats that are the focus on smaller, lesser developed, and more vulnerable Pacific islands. In addition, Hawaii's communicable disease surveillance and response system can act rapidly to counter increases in any disease above baseline and to redirect resources to deal with changes, particularly outbreaks due to exotic pathogens.<br><br>RESULTS: The evidence base examined in this article consistently revealed very low climate sensitivity with respect to infectious and mosquito-borne diseases.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A community resilience model is recommended to increase adaptive capacity for all possible climate change impacts rather an approach that focuses specifically on communicable diseases. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:797-804).}, }
@article {pmid27514216, year = {2016}, author = {Stewart, W}, title = {Emulating Emily Rushton's 'climate change journey'.}, journal = {Nursing New Zealand (Wellington, N.Z. : 1995)}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {3}, pmid = {27514216}, issn = {1179-8920}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Diet, Vegan ; Humans ; *Nurses ; *Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid27513912, year = {2016}, author = {Mundim, FM and Bruna, EM}, title = {Is There a Temperate Bias in Our Understanding of How Climate Change Will Alter Plant-Herbivore Interactions? A Meta-analysis of Experimental Studies.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {188 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S74-89}, doi = {10.1086/687530}, pmid = {27513912}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Herbivory ; Plants ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change can drive major shifts in community composition and interactions between resident species. However, the magnitude of these changes depends on the type of interactions and the biome in which they take place. We review the existing conceptual framework for how climate change will influence tropical plant-herbivore interactions and formalize a similar framework for the temperate zone. We then conduct the first biome-specific tests of how plant-herbivore interactions change in response to climate-driven changes in temperature, precipitation, ambient CO2, and ozone. We used quantitative meta-analysis to compare predicted and observed changes in experimental studies. Empirical studies were heavily biased toward temperate systems, so testing predicted changes in tropical plant-herbivore interactions was virtually impossible. Furthermore, most studies investigated the effects of CO2 with limited plant and herbivore species. Irrespective of location, most studies manipulated only one climate change factor despite the fact that different factors can act in synergy to alter responses of plants and herbivores. Finally, studies of belowground plant-herbivore interactions were also rare; those conducted suggest that climate change could have major effects on belowground subsystems. Our results suggest that there is a disconnection between the growing literature proposing how climate change will influence plant-herbivore interactions and the studies testing these predictions. General conclusions will also be hampered without better integration of above- and belowground systems, assessing the effects of multiple climate change factors simultaneously, and using greater diversity of species in experiments.}, }
@article {pmid27513724, year = {2016}, author = {Wang, L and Yuan, X and Xie, Z and Wu, P and Li, Y}, title = {Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {30571}, pmid = {27513724}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The recent global warming slowdown or hiatus after the big El Niño event in 1997/98 raises the questions of whether terrestrial hydrological cycle is being decelerated and how do the hydrological extremes respond to the hiatus. However, the rapidly developing drought events that are termed as "flash droughts" accompanied by extreme heat, low soil moisture and high evapotranspiration (ET), occurred frequently around the world, and caused devastating impacts on crop yields and water supply. Here, we investigate the long-term trend and variability of flash droughts over China. Flash droughts are most likely to occur over humid and semi-humid regions, such as southern and northeastern China. Flash drought averaged over China increased by 109% from 1979 to 2010, and the increase was mainly due to a long term warming of temperature (50%), followed by the contributions from decreasing soil moisture and increasing ET. There was a slight drop in temperature after 1997, but the increasing trend of flash droughts was tripled. Further results indicate that the decreasing temperature was compensated by the accelerated drying trends of soil moisture and enhanced ET, leading to an acceleration of flash droughts during the warming hiatus. The anthropogenic warming in the next few decades may exacerbate future flash drought conditions in China.}, }
@article {pmid27509760, year = {2016}, author = {Dilt, TE and Weisberg, PJ and Leitner, P and Matocq, MD and Inman, RD and Nussear, KE and Esque, TC}, title = {Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {1223-1237}, doi = {10.1890/15-0925}, pmid = {27509760}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Desert Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Policy ; *Models, Biological ; Plants/classification ; Sciuridae/*physiology ; United States ; }, abstract = {Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.}, }
@article {pmid27509758, year = {2016}, author = {Zidon, R and Tsueda, H and Morin, E and Morin, S}, title = {Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {1198-1210}, doi = {10.1890/15-1045}, pmid = {27509758}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; Computer Simulation ; Crops, Agricultural/parasitology ; *Global Warming ; Hemiptera/*physiology ; Mediterranean Region ; Models, Biological ; Periodicity ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid27509755, year = {2016}, author = {Hällfors, MH and Liao, J and Dzurisin, J and Grundel, R and Hyvärinen, M and Towle, K and Wu, GC and Hellmann, JJ}, title = {Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {1154-1169}, doi = {10.1890/15-0926}, pmid = {27509755}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Animals ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Endangered Species ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Primula/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate Max-Ent models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. Principal component analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species vs. population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.}, }
@article {pmid27509744, year = {2016}, author = {Colloff, M and Lavorel, S and Wise, RM and Dunlop, M and Overton, IC and Williams, KJ}, title = {Adaptation services of floodplains and wetlands under transformational climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {1003-1017}, doi = {10.1890/15-0848}, pmid = {27509744}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Rivers ; *Water Movements ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Adaptation services are the ecosystem processes and services that benefit people by increasing their ability to adapt to change. Benefits may accrue from existing but newly used services where ecosystems persist or from novel services supplied following ecosystem transformation. Ecosystem properties that enable persistence or transformation are important adaptation services because they support future options. The adaptation services approach can be applied to decisions on trade-offs between currently valued services and benefits from maintaining future options. For example, ecosystem functions and services of floodplains depend on river flows. In those regions of the world where climate change projections are for hotter, drier conditions, floods will be less frequent and floodplains will either persist, though with modified structure and function, or transform to terrestrial (flood-independent) ecosystems. Many currently valued ecosystem services will reduce in supply or become unavailable, but new options are provided by adaptation services. We present a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, for operationalizing the adaptation services concept for floodplains and wetlands. We found large changes in flow and flood regimes are likely under a scenario of +1.6°C by 2030, even with additional water restored to rivers under the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We predict major changes to floodplain ecosystems, including contraction of riparian forests and woodlands and expansion of terrestrial, drought-tolerant vegetation communities. Examples of adaptation services under this scenario include substitution of irrigated agriculture with dryland cropping and floodplain grazing; mitigation of damage from rarer, extreme floods; and increased tourism, recreational, and cultural values derived from fewer, smaller wetlands that can be maintained with environmental flows. Management for adaptation services will require decisions on where intervention can enable ecosystem persistence and where transformation is inevitable. New ways of managing water that include consideration of the increasing importance of adaptation services requires major changes to decision-making that better account for landscape heterogeneity and large-scale change rather than attempting to maintain ecosystems in fixed states.}, }
@article {pmid27509088, year = {2016}, author = {Morelli, TL and Daly, C and Dobrowski, SZ and Dulen, DM and Ebersole, JL and Jackson, ST and Lundquist, JD and Millar, CI and Maher, SP and Monahan, WB and Nydick, KR and Redmond, KT and Sawyer, SC and Stock, S and Beissinger, SR}, title = {Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {e0159909}, pmid = {27509088}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Rabbits ; *Refugium ; }, abstract = {Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27508496, year = {2016}, author = {Miralles, L and Oremus, M and Silva, MA and Planes, S and Garcia-Vazquez, E}, title = {Interspecific Hybridization in Pilot Whales and Asymmetric Genetic Introgression in Northern Globicephala melas under the Scenario of Global Warming.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {e0160080}, pmid = {27508496}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Biological Evolution ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; DNA, Mitochondrial/chemistry/genetics ; Female ; Genetic Loci ; Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; *Global Warming ; Haplotypes ; Hybridization, Genetic/*genetics ; Male ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Whales, Pilot/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Pilot whales are two cetacean species (Globicephala melas and G. macrorhynchus) whose distributions are correlated with water temperature and partially overlap in some areas like the North Atlantic Ocean. In the context of global warming, distribution range shifts are expected to occur in species affected by temperature. Consequently, a northward displacement of the tropical pilot whale G. macrorynchus is expected, eventually leading to increased secondary contact areas and opportunities for interspecific hybridization. Here, we describe genetic evidences of recurrent hybridization between pilot whales in northeast Atlantic Ocean. Based on mitochondrial DNA sequences and microsatellite loci, asymmetric introgression of G. macrorhynchus genes into G. melas was observed. For the latter species, a significant correlation was found between historical population growth rate estimates and paleotemperature oscillations. Introgressive hybridization, current temperature increases and lower genetic variation in G. melas suggest that this species could be at risk in its northern range. Under increasing environmental and human-mediated stressors in the North Atlantic Ocean, it seems recommendable to develop a conservation program for G. melas.}, }
@article {pmid27507240, year = {2016}, author = {Matzrafi, M and Seiwert, B and Reemtsma, T and Rubin, B and Peleg, Z}, title = {Climate change increases the risk of herbicide-resistant weeds due to enhanced detoxification.}, journal = {Planta}, volume = {244}, number = {6}, pages = {1217-1227}, pmid = {27507240}, issn = {1432-2048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Halogenated Diphenyl Ethers/metabolism ; *Herbicide Resistance ; Herbicides/metabolism ; Heterocyclic Compounds, 2-Ring/metabolism ; Inactivation, Metabolic ; Lolium/drug effects/metabolism/physiology ; Plant Weeds/*drug effects/metabolism/physiology ; Poaceae/drug effects/metabolism/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming will increase the incidence of metabolism-based reduced herbicide efficacy on weeds and, therefore, the risk for evolution of non-target site herbicide resistance. Climate changes affect food security both directly and indirectly. Weeds are the major biotic factor limiting crop production worldwide, and herbicides are the most cost-effective way for weed management. Processes associated with climatic changes, such as elevated temperatures, can strongly affect weed control efficiency. Responses of several grass weed populations to herbicides that inhibit acetyl-CoA carboxylase (ACCase) were examined under different temperature regimes. We characterized the mechanism of temperature-dependent sensitivity and the kinetics of pinoxaden detoxification. The products of pinoxaden detoxification were quantified. Decreased sensitivity to ACCase inhibitors was observed under elevated temperatures. Pre-treatment with the cytochrome-P450 inhibitor malathion supports a non-target site metabolism-based mechanism of herbicide resistance. The first 48 h after herbicide application were crucial for pinoxaden detoxification. The levels of the inactive glucose-conjugated pinoxaden product (M5) were found significantly higher under high- than low-temperature regime. Under high temperature, a rapid elevation in the level of the intermediate metabolite (M4) was found only in pinoxaden-resistant plants. Our results highlight the quantitative nature of non-target-site resistance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first experimental evidence for temperature-dependent herbicide sensitivity based on metabolic detoxification. These findings suggest an increased risk for the evolution of herbicide-resistant weeds under predicted climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid27507077, year = {2017}, author = {Runting, RK and Bryan, BA and Dee, LE and Maseyk, FJ and Mandle, L and Hamel, P and Wilson, KA and Yetka, K and Possingham, HP and Rhodes, JR}, title = {Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {28-41}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13457}, pmid = {27507077}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid27504632, year = {2016}, author = {Kwon, TS and Li, F and Kim, SS and Chun, JH and Park, YS}, title = {Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {e0159795}, pmid = {27504632}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ants ; Extinction, Biological ; *Forests ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Statistical ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.}, }
@article {pmid27498523, year = {2016}, author = {Eggen, B}, title = {The effect of climate change on our heath.}, journal = {Journal of family health}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {37-38}, pmid = {27498523}, issn = {2058-7554}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid27492290, year = {2016}, author = {Wu, PC and Lee, CC}, title = {[Confronting the Health-Related Challenges of Climate Change: Nursing Education for the Future].}, journal = {Hu li za zhi The journal of nursing}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {5-12}, doi = {10.6224/JN.63.4.5}, pmid = {27492290}, issn = {0047-262X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Education, Nursing ; Health ; Humans ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the greatest threat to public health in the 21st century. The increasing health impact of heat waves, the increasing magnitudes and spatial expansions of vector and water-borne diseases epidemics, and the increasing medical burdens of biological allergic illnesses, worsening local air pollution, and other related issues are expected to continue to increase in severity in the near future. All of these issues are global problems that must be faced. Adaptation strategies and action plans related to climate change are needed and emerging. Moreover, integrating the basic concepts, scientific evidences, and new technology into public and professional education systems is already recognized as a priority in the national adaptation program. Nurses stand on the frontlines of medical care and health communication. The integration of climate change and adaptation to climate change into nursing education and training is become increasingly important. This article reviews both the expected health impacts of climate change and the mitigation and adaptation strategies that have been proposed / adopted by medical care facilities around the world. Further, we outline the current, priority needs for action in medical care facilities in Taiwan in order to mitigate and adapt to climate-change-related healthcare issues. Additionally, we present an integrated strategic plan for educating healthcare professionals, including nurse, in the future. We hope that the ideas that are presented in this paper encourage multidisciplinary cooperation and help bridge the gap between technology development and practical application in Taiwan's medical care system.}, }
@article {pmid27489201, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {Corrigendum for: The Ethics of Belief, Cognition, and Climate Change Pseudoskepticism: Implications for Public Discourse, by Lawrence Torcello in TopiCS in Cognitive Science, 8(1).}, journal = {Topics in cognitive science}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {715}, doi = {10.1111/tops.12215}, pmid = {27489201}, issn = {1756-8765}, }
@article {pmid27487117, year = {2016}, author = {Hart, PS and Feldman, L}, title = {The Influence of Climate Change Efficacy Messages and Efficacy Beliefs on Intended Political Participation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {e0157658}, pmid = {27487117}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; Climate Change ; Communication ; Female ; Humans ; *Intention ; Male ; Mass Media ; Middle Aged ; *Politics ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States/ethnology ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Using an online survey experiment with a national sample, this study examined how changing the type and valence of efficacy information in news stories discussing global climate change may impact intended political participation through the mediators of perceived internal, external, and response efficacy. Overall, the results revealed that after a single exposure to a news story, stories including positive internal efficacy content increased perceived internal efficacy, while stories including negative external efficacy content lowered perceived external efficacy. There were limited impacts of other types of efficacy content on perceived efficacy. Perceived internal, external, and response efficacy all offered unique, positive associations with intentions to engage in climate change-related political participation. The results suggest that news stories including positive internal efficacy information in particular have the potential to increase public engagement around climate change. The implications for science communication are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid27486659, year = {2016}, author = {Mildenberger, M and Howe, P and Lachapelle, E and Stokes, L and Marlon, J and Gravelle, T}, title = {The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {e0159774}, pmid = {27486659}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Opinion ; Public Policy ; Regression Analysis ; Rural Population ; United States ; Urban Population ; }, abstract = {While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.}, }
@article {pmid27486572, year = {2016}, author = {Liu, L and Yang, X and Liu, H and Wang, M and Welles, S and Márquez, S and Frank, A and Haas, CN}, title = {Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Air Pollution, Climate Change, and Total Mortality in 120 Cities of China, 2012-2013.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {143}, pmid = {27486572}, issn = {2296-2565}, support = {R25 MD006792/MD/NIMHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {China has had a rapid increase in its economy over the past three decades. However, the economic boom came at a certain cost of depleting air quality. In the study, we aimed to examine the burden of air pollution and its association with climatic factors and health outcomes using data from Chinese national and city-level air quality and public health surveillance systems. City-level daily air pollution index (API, a sum weighted index of SO2, NO2, PM10, CO, and Ozone) in 120 cities in 2012 and 2013, and its association with climate factors were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and panel fixed models. City-level ecological association between annual average API and total mortality were examined using univariate and partial correlation analysis. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by taking the consideration of time-lag effect between exposures and outcomes. The results show that among the 120 cities, annual average API significantly increased from 2012 to 2013 (65.05 vs. 75.99, p < 0.0001). The highest average API was in winter, and the lowest in summer. A significantly spatial clustering of elevated API was observed, with the highest API in northwest China in 2012 and with the highest in east China in 2013. In 2012, 5 (4%) of the 120 cities had ≥60 days with API >100 (defined as "slightly polluted"), however, it increased to 21 cities (18%) that experienced API >100 for ≥60 days in 2013. Furthermore, 16 cities (13%) in 2012 and 35 (29%) in 2013 experienced a maximum API >300 (defined as "severely polluted"). API was negatively and significantly correlated with heat index, precipitation, and sunshine hours, but positively with air pressure. Cities with higher API concentrations had significantly higher total mortality rates than those with lower API. About a 4-7% of the variation in total mortality could be explained by the difference in API across the nation. In conclusion, the study highlights an increased trend of air pollution from 2012 to 2013 in China. The magnitude of air pollution varied by seasons and regions and correlated with climatic factors and total mortality across the country.}, }
@article {pmid27486065, year = {2016}, author = {Fleming, A and Howden, SM}, title = {Ambiguity: A new way of thinking about responses to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {571}, number = {}, pages = {1271-1274}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.162}, pmid = {27486065}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Diversity, interdisciplinarity and transdisciplinarity are now recognized as vital to tackling wicked problems such as those presented by a changing climate (Nature editorial 2015, Ledford 2015; Dick et al., 2016). Including diverse disciplines in science projects enables a range of different views which often facilitate the creation of innovative solutions. Supporting multiple views and options requires a different way of working beyond traditional reductionist approaches to science, communication and decision-making. To embrace diversity in scientific project teams in order to tackle complex, integrated and urgent issues but to expect singular and linear pathways forward is paradoxical. Much has been written about the need for the scientific community to embrace uncertainty (e.g. Popper, Lempert &amp; Bankes 2005; Lempert et al., 2004; Nelson, Howden &amp; Hayman 2013; Bammer &amp; Smithson 2008). We argue that this in itself will not suffice, and that there is also a need to embrace ambiguity in certain situations. Thus, in this article we explore: (1) what ambiguity is, including the benefits it can offer to climate adaptation in particular, using existing approaches to ambiguity in the arts and humanities as examples (2), we discuss practical meanings of ambiguity in relation to climate change, (3) we propose possible next steps for bringing ambiguity into interdisciplinary practice, and (4) we identify some challenges and necessary preconditions to successfully and appropriately embracing ambiguity.}, }
@article {pmid27485898, year = {2016}, author = {McIver, LJ and Imai, C and Buettner, PG and Gager, P and Chan, VS and Hashizume, M and Iddings, SN and Kol, H and Raingsey, PP and Lyne, K}, title = {Diarrheal Diseases and Climate Change in Cambodia.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {576-585}, doi = {10.1177/1010539516660190}, pmid = {27485898}, issn = {1941-2479}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Cambodia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Diarrhea/*epidemiology ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Risk Factors ; Time Factors ; Waterborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The DRIP-SWICCH (Developing Research and Innovative Policies Specific to the Water-related Impacts of Climate Change on Health) project aimed to increase the resilience of Cambodian communities to the health risks posed by climate change-related impacts on water. This article follows a review of climate change and water-related diseases in Cambodia and presents the results of a time series analysis of monthly weather and diarrheal disease data for 11 provinces. In addition, correlations of diarrheal disease incidence with selected demographic, socioeconomic, and water and sanitation indicators are described, with results suggesting education and literacy may be most protective against disease. The potential impact of climate change on the burden of diarrheal disease in Cambodia is considered, along with the implications of these findings for health systems adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid27482907, year = {2016}, author = {Leas, EC and Althouse, BM and Dredze, M and Obradovich, N and Fowler, JH and Noar, SM and Allem, JP and Ayers, JW}, title = {Big Data Sensors of Organic Advocacy: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio and Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {e0159885}, pmid = {27482907}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Famous Persons ; Global Warming ; Humans ; *Information Dissemination ; Internet ; Search Engine ; Social Media ; Television ; }, abstract = {The strategies that experts have used to share information about social causes have historically been top-down, meaning the most influential messages are believed to come from planned events and campaigns. However, more people are independently engaging with social causes today than ever before, in part because online platforms allow them to instantaneously seek, create, and share information. In some cases this "organic advocacy" may rival or even eclipse top-down strategies. Big data analytics make it possible to rapidly detect public engagement with social causes by analyzing the same platforms from which organic advocacy spreads. To demonstrate this claim we evaluated how Leonardo DiCaprio's 2016 Oscar acceptance speech citing climate change motivated global English language news (Bloomberg Terminal news archives), social media (Twitter postings) and information seeking (Google searches) about climate change. Despite an insignificant increase in traditional news coverage (54%; 95%CI: -144 to 247), tweets including the terms "climate change" or "global warming" reached record highs, increasing 636% (95%CI: 573-699) with more than 250,000 tweets the day DiCaprio spoke. In practical terms the "DiCaprio effect" surpassed the daily average effect of the 2015 Conference of the Parties (COP) and the Earth Day effect by a factor of 3.2 and 5.3, respectively. At the same time, Google searches for "climate change" or "global warming" increased 261% (95%CI, 186-335) and 210% (95%CI 149-272) the day DiCaprio spoke and remained higher for 4 more days, representing 104,190 and 216,490 searches. This increase was 3.8 and 4.3 times larger than the increases observed during COP's daily average or on Earth Day. Searches were closely linked to content from Dicaprio's speech (e.g., "hottest year"), as unmentioned content did not have search increases (e.g., "electric car"). Because these data are freely available in real time our analytical strategy provides substantial lead time for experts to detect and participate in organic advocacy while an issue is salient. Our study demonstrates new opportunities to detect and aid agents of change and advances our understanding of communication in the 21st century media landscape.}, }
@article {pmid27482902, year = {2016}, author = {Tabachnick, WJ}, title = {Climate Change and the Arboviruses: Lessons from the Evolution of the Dengue and Yellow Fever Viruses.}, journal = {Annual review of virology}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {125-145}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-virology-110615-035630}, pmid = {27482902}, issn = {2327-0578}, mesh = {Aedes/virology ; Animals ; Arbovirus Infections/*transmission/virology ; Arboviruses/*genetics ; Dengue/prevention &amp; control/*transmission/virology ; Dengue Virus/*genetics ; Evolution, Molecular ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/virology ; Yellow Fever/prevention &amp; control/*transmission/virology ; Yellow fever virus/*genetics ; }, abstract = {The impact of anticipated changes in global climate on the arboviruses and the diseases they cause poses a significant challenge for public health. The past evolution of the dengue and yellow fever viruses provides clues about the influence of changes in climate on their future evolution. The evolution of both viruses has been influenced by virus interactions involving the mosquito species and the primate hosts involved in virus transmission, and by their domestic and sylvatic cycles. Information is needed on how viral genes in general influence phenotypic variance for important viral functions. Changes in global climate will alter the interactions of mosquito species with their primate hosts and with the viruses in domestic cycles, and greater attention should be paid to the sylvatic cycles. There is great danger for the evolution of novel viruses, such as new serotypes, that could compromise vaccination programs and jeopardize public health. It is essential to understand (a) both sylvatic and domestic cycles and (b) the role of virus genetic and environmental variances in shaping virus phenotypic variance to more fully assess the impact of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27482844, year = {2016}, author = {Papadimitriou, VC and Burkholder, JB}, title = {OH Radical Reaction Rate Coefficients, Infrared Spectrum, and Global Warming Potential of (CF3)2CFCH═CHF (HFO-1438ezy(E)).}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {120}, number = {33}, pages = {6618-6628}, doi = {10.1021/acs.jpca.6b06096}, pmid = {27482844}, issn = {1520-5215}, abstract = {Rate coefficients, k(T), for the OH radical + (E)-(CF3)2CFCH═CHF ((E)-1,3,4,4,4-pentafluoro-3-(trifluoromethyl)-1-butene, HFO-1438ezy(E)) gas-phase reaction were measured using pulsed laser photolysis-laser-induced fluorescence (PLP-LIF) between 214 and 380 K and 50 and 450 Torr (He or N2 bath gas) and with a relative rate method at 296 K between 100 and 400 Torr (synthetic air). Over the range of pressures included in this study, no pressure dependence in k(T) was observed. k(296 K) obtained using the two techniques agreed to within ∼3% with (3.26 ± 0.26) × 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (2σ absolute uncertainty) obtained using the PLP-LIF technique. k(T) displayed non-Arrhenius behavior that is reproduced by (7.34 ± 0.30) × 10(-19)T(2) exp[(481 ± 10)/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). With respect to OH reactive loss, the atmospheric lifetime of HFO-1438ezy(E) is estimated to be ∼36 days and HFO-1438ezy(E) is considered a very short-lived substance (VSLS) (the actual lifetime will depend on the time and location of the HFO-1438ezy(E) emission). On the basis of the HFO-1438ezy(E) infrared absorption spectrum measured in this work and its estimated lifetime, a radiative efficiency of 0.306 W m(-2) ppb(-1) (well-mixed gas) was calculated and its 100-year time-horizon global warming potential, GWP100, was estimated to be 8.6. CF3CFO, HC(O)F, and CF2O were identified using infrared spectroscopy as stable end products in the oxidation of HFO-1438ezy(E) in the presence of O2. Two additional fluorinated products were observed and theoretical calculations of the infrared spectra of likely degradation products are presented. The photochemical ozone creation potential of HFO-1438ezy(E) was estimated to be ∼2.15.}, }
@article {pmid27482082, year = {2016}, author = {Ragettli, S and Immerzeel, WW and Pellicciotti, F}, title = {Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {33}, pages = {9222-9227}, pmid = {27482082}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Chile ; *Climate Change ; Hydrology ; Ice Cover ; Nepal ; *Rivers ; Seasons ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Mountain ranges are the world's natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.}, }
@article {pmid27479240, year = {2016}, author = {Touch, V and Martin, RJ and Scott, JF and Cowie, A and Liu, L}, title = {Climate change adaptation options in rainfed upland cropping systems in the wet tropics: A case study of smallholder farms in North-West Cambodia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {182}, number = {}, pages = {238-246}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.07.039}, pmid = {27479240}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Cambodia ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Decision Making ; Environment ; *Farms ; Focus Groups ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {While climate change is confirmed to have serious impacts on agricultural production in many regions worldwide, researchers have proposed various measures that farmers can apply to cope with and adapt to those changes. However, it is often the case that not every adaptation measure would be practical and adoptable in a specific region. Farmers may have their own ways of managing and adapting to climate change that need to be taken into account when considering interventions. This study aimed to engage with farmers to: (1) better understand small-holder knowledge, attitudes and practices in relation to perceived or expected climate change; and (2) document cropping practices, climate change perceptions, constraints to crop production, and coping and adaptation options with existing climate variability and expected climate change. This study was conducted in 2015 in Sala Krau village near Pailin (12°52'N, 102°45'E) and Samlout (12°39'N, 102°36'E) of North-West Cambodia. The methods used were a combination of focus group discussions and one-on-one interviews where 132 farming households were randomly selected. We found that farmers were conscious of changes in climate over recent years, and had a good understanding of likely future changes. While farmers are aware of some practices that can be modified to minimize risk and cope with anticipated changes, they are reluctant to apply them. Furthermore; there are no government agricultural extension services provided at the village level and farmers have relied on each other and other actors in the value chain network for information to support their decision-making. There is a lack of knowledge of the principles of conservation agriculture that urgently require agricultural extension services in the region to build farmer ability to better cope and adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27478706, year = {2016}, author = {Périé, C and de Blois, S}, title = {Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {e2218}, pmid = {27478706}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5-21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid27476545, year = {2016}, author = {Dobrowski, SZ and Parks, SA}, title = {Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {12349}, pmid = {27476545}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.}, }
@article {pmid27476005, year = {2016}, author = {Beniston, M and Stoffel, M}, title = {Rain-on-snow events, floods and climate change in the Alps: Events may increase with warming up to 4°C and decrease thereafter.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {571}, number = {}, pages = {228-236}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.146}, pmid = {27476005}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This paper focuses on the influence of mountain rain-on-snow (ROS) events that can on occasion trigger major floods in alpine catchments. In order to assess the evolution of these events in a recent past, and the potential changes that could be experienced in a changing climate over coming decades, we have focused on a small catchment in north-eastern Switzerland, the Sitter, well-endowed with both climate and hydrological data. Observations show that there has been an increase in the number of rain-on-snow events since the early 1960s related to the rise in atmospheric temperatures. Results from a simple temperature-based snow model show that the number of ROS events could increase by close to 50% with temperatures 2-4°C warmer than today, before declining when temperatures go beyond 4°C. The likelihood of more ROS events suggests that the risks of flooding in a future climate may indeed get worse before they improve.}, }
@article {pmid27473773, year = {2016}, author = {Mihailović, DT and Drešković, N and Arsenić, I and Ćirić, V and Djurdjević, V and Mimić, G and Pap, I and Balaž, I}, title = {Impact of climate change on soil thermal and moisture regimes in Serbia: An analysis with data from regional climate simulations under SRES-A1B.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {571}, number = {}, pages = {398-409}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.142}, pmid = {27473773}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {We considered temporal and spatial variations to the thermal and moisture regimes of the most common RSGs (Reference Soil Groups) in Serbia under the A1B scenario for the 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods, with respect to the 1961-1990 period. We utilized dynamically downscaled global climate simulations from the ECHAM5 model using the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model). We analysed the soil temperature and moisture time series using simple statistics and a Kolmogorov complexity (KC) analysis. The corresponding metrics were calculated for 150 sites. In the future, warmer and drier regimes can be expected for all RSGs in Serbia. The calculated soil temperature and moisture variations include increases in the mean annual soil temperature (up to 3.8°C) and decreases in the mean annual soil moisture (up to 11.3%). Based on the KC values, the soils in Serbia are classified with respect to climate change impacts as (1) less sensitive (Vertisols, Umbrisols and Dystric Cambisols) or (2) more sensitive (Chernozems, Eutric Cambisols and Planosols).}, }
@article {pmid27473615, year = {2016}, author = {Ahmed, A and Devadason, ES and Al-Amin, AQ}, title = {Implications of climate change damage for agriculture: sectoral evidence from Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {23}, number = {20}, pages = {20688-20699}, pmid = {27473615}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics/trends ; Algorithms ; Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Crops, Agricultural/economics ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Livestock ; Models, Economic ; Pakistan ; }, abstract = {This paper gives a projection of the possible damage of climate change on the agriculture sector of Pakistan for the period 2012-2037, based on a dynamic approach, using an environment-related applied computable general equilibrium model (CGE). Climate damage projections depict an upward trend for the period of review and are found to be higher than the global average. Further, the damage to the agricultural sector exceeds that for the overall economy. By sector, climatic damage disproportionately affects the major and minor crops, livestock and fisheries. The largest losses following climate change, relative to the other agricultural sectors, are expected for livestock. The reason for this is the orthodox system of production for livestock, with a low adaptability to negative shocks of climate change. Overall, the findings reveal the high exposure of the agriculture sector to climate damage. In this regard, policymakers in Pakistan should take seriously the effects of climate change on agriculture and consider suitable technology to mitigate those damages.}, }
@article {pmid27472663, year = {2016}, author = {Haunschild, R and Bornmann, L and Marx, W}, title = {Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {e0160393}, pmid = {27472663}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Bibliometrics ; *Climate Change ; *Research ; }, abstract = {This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5-6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top-the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that the term climate change comes forward with time. Furthermore, the term impact arises and points to research dealing with the various effects of climate change. The discussion of the question of human induced climate change towards a clear fact (for the majority of the scientific community) stimulated research on future pathways for adaptation and mitigation. Finally, the term model and related terms prominently appear independent of time, indicating the high relevance of climate modeling.}, }
@article {pmid27472269, year = {2017}, author = {Pourmokhtarian, A and Driscoll, CT and Campbell, JL and Hayhoe, K and Stoner, AM and Adams, MB and Burns, D and Fernandez, I and Mitchell, MJ and Shanley, JB}, title = {Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {840-856}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13444}, pmid = {27472269}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; New England ; Plants ; *Rivers ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27471781, year = {2016}, author = {Newbery, F and Qi, A and Fitt, BD}, title = {Modelling impacts of climate change on arable crop diseases: progress, challenges and applications.}, journal = {Current opinion in plant biology}, volume = {32}, number = {}, pages = {101-109}, doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2016.07.002}, pmid = {27471781}, issn = {1879-0356}, support = {BB/E001610/1//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/1017585/1//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/N005112/1//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/1016317/1//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Combining climate change, crop growth and crop disease models to predict impacts of climate change on crop diseases can guide planning of climate change adaptation strategies to ensure future food security. This review summarises recent developments in modelling climate change impacts on crop diseases, emphasises some major challenges and highlights recent trends. The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change modelling and crop modelling is contributing towards measures of uncertainty in climate change impact projections but other aspects of uncertainty remain largely unexplored. Impact assessments are still concentrated on few crops and few diseases but are beginning to investigate arable crop disease dynamics at the landscape level.}, }
@article {pmid27471332, year = {2016}, author = {Hoque, MA and Scheelbeek, PF and Vineis, P and Khan, AE and Ahmed, KM and Butler, AP}, title = {Drinking water vulnerability to climate change and alternatives for adaptation in coastal South and South East Asia.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {136}, number = {}, pages = {247-263}, pmid = {27471332}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Drinking water in much of Asia, particularly in coastal and rural settings, is provided by a variety of sources, which are widely distributed and frequently managed at an individual or local community level. Coastal and near-inland drinking water sources in South and South East (SSE) Asia are vulnerable to contamination by seawater, most dramatically from tropical cyclone induced storm surges. This paper assesses spatial vulnerabilities to salinisation of drinking water sources due to meteorological variability and climate change along the (ca. 6000 km) coastline of SSE Asia. The risks of increasing climatic stresses are first considered, and then maps of relative vulnerability along the entire coastline are developed, using data from global scale land surface models, along with an overall vulnerability index. The results show that surface and near-surface drinking water in the coastal areas of the mega-deltas in Vietnam and Bangladesh-India are most vulnerable, putting more than 25 million people at risk of drinking 'saline' water. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this problem, with adverse consequences for health, such as prevalence of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. There is a need for identifying locations that are most at risk of salinisation in order for policy makers and local officials to implement strategies for reducing these health impacts. To counter the risks associated with these vulnerabilities, possible adaptation measures are also outlined. We conclude that detailed and fine scale vulnerability assessments may become crucial for planning targeted adaptation programmes along these coasts.}, }
@article {pmid27471293, year = {2016}, author = {Schmittner, A}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. The smoking gun for Atlantic circulation changes.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {353}, number = {6298}, pages = {445-446}, doi = {10.1126/science.aag3156}, pmid = {27471293}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Seawater ; *Smoking ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; }, }
@article {pmid27469983, year = {2017}, author = {Munday, PL and Donelson, JM and Domingos, JA}, title = {Potential for adaptation to climate change in a coral reef fish.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {307-317}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13419}, pmid = {27469983}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; *Fishes/genetics/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Genetic Variation ; }, abstract = {Predicting the impacts of climate change requires knowledge of the potential to adapt to rising temperatures, which is unknown for most species. Adaptive potential may be especially important in tropical species that have narrow thermal ranges and live close to their thermal optimum. We used the animal model to estimate heritability, genotype by environment interactions and nongenetic maternal components of phenotypic variation in fitness-related traits in the coral reef damselfish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus. Offspring of wild-caught breeding pairs were reared for two generations at current-day and two elevated temperature treatments (+1.5 and +3.0 °C) consistent with climate change projections. Length, weight, body condition and metabolic traits (resting and maximum metabolic rate and net aerobic scope) were measured at four stages of juvenile development. Additive genetic variation was low for length and weight at 0 and 15 days posthatching (dph), but increased significantly at 30 dph. By contrast, nongenetic maternal effects on length, weight and body condition were high at 0 and 15 dph and became weaker at 30 dph. Metabolic traits, including net aerobic scope, exhibited high heritability at 90 dph. Furthermore, significant genotype x environment interactions indicated potential for adaptation of maximum metabolic rate and net aerobic scope at higher temperatures. Net aerobic scope was negatively correlated with weight, indicating that any adaptation of metabolic traits at higher temperatures could be accompanied by a reduction in body size. Finally, estimated breeding values for metabolic traits in F2 offspring were significantly affected by the parental rearing environment. Breeding values at higher temperatures were highest for transgenerationally acclimated fish, suggesting a possible role for epigenetic mechanisms in adaptive responses of metabolic traits. These results indicate a high potential for adaptation of aerobic scope to higher temperatures, which could enable reef fish populations to maintain their performance as ocean temperatures rise.}, }
@article {pmid27469427, year = {2016}, author = {Anderson, TR and Hawkins, E and Jones, PD}, title = {CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models.}, journal = {Endeavour}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {178-187}, doi = {10.1016/j.endeavour.2016.07.002}, pmid = {27469427}, issn = {1873-1929}, abstract = {Climate warming during the course of the twenty-first century is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.7°C depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, based on the ensemble-mean results of state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). Just how reliable are these projections, given the complexity of the climate system? The early history of climate research provides insight into the understanding and science needed to answer this question. We examine the mathematical quantifications of planetary energy budget developed by Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) and Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964) and construct an empirical approximation of the latter, which we show to be successful at retrospectively predicting global warming over the course of the twentieth century. This approximation is then used to calculate warming in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases during the twenty-first century, projecting a temperature increase at the lower bound of results generated by an ensemble of ESMs (as presented in the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This result can be interpreted as follows. The climate system is conceptually complex but has at its heart the physical laws of radiative transfer. This basic, or "core" physics is relatively straightforward to compute mathematically, as exemplified by Callendar's calculations, leading to quantitatively robust projections of baseline warming. The ESMs include not only the physical core but also climate feedbacks that introduce uncertainty into the projections in terms of magnitude, but not sign: positive (amplification of warming). As such, the projections of end-of-century global warming by ESMs are fundamentally trustworthy: quantitatively robust baseline warming based on the well-understood physics of radiative transfer, with extra warming due to climate feedbacks. These projections thus provide a compelling case that global climate will continue to undergo significant warming in response to ongoing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.}, }
@article {pmid27468738, year = {2016}, author = {Churakova Sidorova, OV and Saurer, M and Bryukhanova, MV and Siegwolf, RT and Bigler, C}, title = {Site-specific water-use strategies of mountain pine and larch to cope with recent climate change.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {36}, number = {8}, pages = {942-953}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpw060}, pmid = {27468738}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Larix/*metabolism/*physiology ; Pinus/*metabolism/*physiology ; Plant Leaves/metabolism/physiology ; Water/*metabolism ; Xylem/metabolism ; }, abstract = {We aim to achieve a mechanistic understanding of the eco-physiological processes in Larix decidua and Pinus mugo var. uncinata growing on north- and south-facing aspects in the Swiss National Park in order to distinguish the short- and long-term effects of a changing climate. To strengthen the interpretation of the δ(18)O signal in tree rings and its coherence with the main factors and processes driving evaporative δ(18)O needle water enrichment, we analyzed the δ(18)O in needle, xylem and soil water over the growing season in 2013 and applied the mechanistic Craig-Gordon model (1965) for the short-term responses. We found that δ(18)O needle water strongly reflected the variability of relative humidity mainly for larch, while only δ(18)O in pine xylem water showed a strong link to δ(18)O in precipitation. Larger differences in offsets between modeled and measured δ(18)O needle water for both species from the south-facing aspects were detected, which could be explained by the high transpiration rates. Different soil water and needle water responses for the two species indicate different water-use strategies, further modulated by the site conditions. To reveal the long-term physiological response of the studied trees to recent and past climate changes, we analyzed δ(13)C and δ(18)O in wood chronologies from 1900 to 2013. Summer temperatures as well as summer and annual amount of precipitations are important factors for growth of both studied species from both aspects. However, mountain pine trees reduced sensitivity to temperature changes, while precipitation changes come to play an important role for the period from 1980 to 2013. Intrinsic water-use efficiency (WUEi) calculated for larch trees since the 1990s reached a saturation point at elevated CO2 Divergent trends between pine WUEi and δ(18)O are most likely indicative of a decline of mountain pine trees and are also reflected in decoupling mechanisms in the isotope signals between needles and tree-rings.}, }
@article {pmid27467171, year = {2016}, author = {Vafidis, JO and Vaughan, IP and Jones, TH and Facey, RJ and Parry, R and Thomas, RJ}, title = {The Effects of Supplementary Food on the Breeding Performance of Eurasian Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus; Implications for Climate Change Impacts.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {e0159933}, pmid = {27467171}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Feed ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Clutch Size ; Female ; Male ; Nesting Behavior ; Reproduction ; Songbirds/*physiology ; Wales ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Understanding the mechanisms by which climate variation can drive population changes requires information linking climate, local conditions, trophic resources, behaviour and demography. Climate change alters the seasonal pattern of emergence and abundance of invertebrate populations, which may have important consequences for the breeding performance and population change of insectivorous birds. In this study, we examine the role of food availability in driving behavioural changes in an insectivorous migratory songbird; the Eurasian reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus. We use a feeding experiment to examine the effect of increased food supply on different components of breeding behaviour and first-brood productivity, over three breeding seasons (2012-2014). Reed warblers respond to food-supplementation by advancing their laying date by up to 5.6 days. Incubation periods are shorter in supplemented groups during the warmest mean spring temperatures. Nestling growth rates are increased in nests provisioned by supplemented parents. In addition, nest predation is reduced, possibly because supplemented adults spend more time at the nest and faster nestling growth reduces the period of vulnerability of eggs and nestlings to predators (and brood parasites). The net effect of these changes is to advance the fledging completion date and to increase the overall productivity of the first brood for supplemented birds. European populations of reed warblers are currently increasing; our results suggest that advancing spring phenology, leading to increased food availability early in the breeding season, could account for this change by facilitating higher productivity. Furthermore, the earlier brood completion potentially allows multiple breeding attempts. This study identifies the likely trophic and behavioural mechanisms by which climate-driven changes in invertebrate phenology and abundance may lead to changes in breeding phenology, nest survival and net reproductive performance of insectivorous birds.}, }
@article {pmid27466861, year = {2017}, author = {Burkett, E and Martin-Khan, MG and Scott, J and Samanta, M and Gray, LC}, title = {Trends and predicted trends in presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments: effects of demand growth, population aging and climate change.}, journal = {Australian health review : a publication of the Australian Hospital Association}, volume = {41}, number = {3}, pages = {246-253}, doi = {10.1071/AH15165}, pmid = {27466861}, issn = {0156-5788}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Emergency Service, Hospital/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Episode of Care ; Female ; *Health Services Needs and Demand ; Health Services for the Aged/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Male ; Population Surveillance ; Retrospective Studies ; }, abstract = {Objectives The aim of the present study was to describe trends in and age and gender distributions of presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments (EDs) from July 2006 to June 2011, and to develop ED utilisation projections to 2050. Methods A retrospective analysis of data collected in the National Non-admitted Patient Emergency Department Care Database was undertaken to assess trends in ED presentations. Three standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population growth models, with and without adjustment for current trends in ED presentation growth and effects of climate change, were examined with projections of ED presentations across three age groups (0-64, 65-84 and ≥85 years) to 2050. Results From 2006-07 to 2010-11, ED presentations increased by 12.63%, whereas the Australian population over this time increased by only 7.26%. Rates of presentation per head of population were greatest among those aged ≥85 years. Projections of ED presentations to 2050 revealed that overall ED presentations are forecast to increase markedly, with the rate of increase being most marked for older people. Conclusion Growth in Australian ED presentations from 2006-07 to 2010-11 was greater than that expected from population growth alone. The predicted changes in demand for ED care will only be able to be optimally managed if Australian health policy, ED funding instruments and ED models of care are adjusted to take into account the specific care and resource needs of older people. What is known about the topic? Rapid population aging is anticipated over coming decades. International studies and specific local-level Australian studies have demonstrated significant growth in ED presentations. There have been no prior national-level Australian studies of ED presentation trends by age group. What does this paper add? The present study examined national ED presentation trends from July 2006 to June 2011, with specific emphasis on trends in presentation by age group. ED presentation growth was found to exceed population growth in all age groups. The rate of ED presentations per head of population was highest among those aged ≥85 years. ED utilisation projections to 2050, using standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population modelling, with and without adjustment for current ED growth, were developed. The projections demonstrated linear growth in ED presentation for those aged 0-84 years, with growth in ED presentations of the ≥85 year age group demonstrating marked acceleration after 2030. What are the implications for practitioners? Growth in ED presentations exceeding population growth suggests that current models of acute health care delivery require review to ensure that optimal care is delivered in the most fiscally efficient manner. Trends in presentation of older people emphasise the imperative for ED workforce planning and education in care of this complex patient cohort, and the requirement to review funding models to incentivise investment in ED avoidance and substitutive care models targeting older people.}, }
@article {pmid27465040, year = {2016}, author = {Chen, HY and Luo, Y and Reich, PB and Searle, EB and Biswas, SR}, title = {Climate change-associated trends in net biomass change are age dependent in western boreal forests of Canada.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {1150-1158}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12653}, pmid = {27465040}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Alberta ; *Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Saskatchewan ; Seasons ; *Taiga ; Trees/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on forest net biomass change are poorly understood but critical for predicting forest's contribution to the global carbon cycle. Recent studies show climate change-associated net biomass declines in mature forest plots. The representativeness of these plots for regional forests, however, remains uncertain because we lack an assessment of whether climate change impacts differ with forest age. Using data from plots of varying ages from 17 to 210 years, monitored from 1958 to 2011 in western Canada, we found that climate change has little effect on net biomass change in forests ≤ 40 years of age due to increased growth offsetting increased mortality, but has led to large decreases in older forests due to increased mortality accompanying little growth gain. Our analysis highlights the need to incorporate forest age profiles in examining past and projecting future forest responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27464955, year = {2017}, author = {Wang, H and Rutishauser, T and Tao, Z and Zhong, S and Ge, Q and Dai, J}, title = {Impacts of global warming on phenology of spring leaf unfolding remain stable in the long run.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {61}, number = {2}, pages = {287-292}, pmid = {27464955}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Europe ; *Global Warming ; Plant Leaves/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The impact of spring temperature forcing on the timing of leaf unfolding of plants (temperature sensitivity, ST) is one important indicator of how and to what degree plant species track climate change. Fu et al. (Nature 526:104-107, 2015) found that ST has significantly decreased from the 1980-1994 to the 1999-2013 period for seven mid-latitude tree species in Europe. However, long-term changes in ST over the past 60 years are still not clear. Here, using in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species, we analyze the temporal change in ST over decadal time scales extending the data series back to 1951. Our results demonstrate that ST shows no statistically significant change within shifting 30-year windows from 1951 to 2013 and remains stable between 1951-1980 and 1984-2013 (3.6 versus 3.7 days °C[-1]). This result suggests that the significant decrease in ST over the past 33 years could not be sustained when examining the trends of phenological responses in the long run. Therefore, we could not conclude that tree spring phenology advances will slow down in the future, and the ST changes in warming scenarios are still uncertain.}, }
@article {pmid27463237, year = {2016}, author = {Hancock, AM}, title = {Rapid adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {15}, pages = {3525-3526}, doi = {10.1111/mec.13731}, pmid = {27463237}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Brassica rapa ; Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Gene Pool ; }, abstract = {In recent years, amid growing concerns that changing climate is affecting species distributions and ecosystems, predicting responses to rapid environmental change has become a major goal. In this issue, Franks and colleagues take a first step towards this objective (Franks et al. 2016). They examine genomewide signatures of selection in populations of Brassica rapa after a severe multiyear drought. Together with other authors, Franks had previously shown that flowering time was reduced after this particular drought and that the reduction was genetically encoded. Now, the authors have sequenced previously stored samples to compare allele frequencies before and after the drought and identify the loci with the most extreme shifts in frequencies. The loci they identify largely differ between populations, suggesting that different genetic variants may be responsible for reduction in flowering time in the two populations.}, }
@article {pmid27457660, year = {2016}, author = {Williams, CR and Mincham, G and Faddy, H and Viennet, E and Ritchie, SA and Harley, D}, title = {Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.}, journal = {Epidemiology and infection}, volume = {144}, number = {14}, pages = {3091-3100}, pmid = {27457660}, issn = {1469-4409}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology/virology ; Dengue Virus/*physiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.}, }
@article {pmid27453686, year = {2016}, author = {Gutiérrez-Tapia, P and Palma, RE}, title = {Integrating phylogeography and species distribution models: cryptic distributional responses to past climate change in an endemic rodent from the central Chile hotspot.}, journal = {Diversity &amp; distributions}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {638-650}, pmid = {27453686}, issn = {1366-9516}, support = {U19 AI045452/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {AIM: Biodiversity losses under the species level may have been severely underestimated in future global climate change scenarios. Therefore, it is important to characterize the diversity units at this level, as well as to understand their ecological responses to climatic forcings. We have chosen an endemic rodent from a highly endangered ecogeographic area as a model to look for distributional responses below the species level: Phyllotis darwini.<br><br>LOCATION: The central Chile biodiversity hotspot: This area harbours a high number of endemic species, and it is known to have experienced vegetational displacements between two mountain systems during and after the Last Glacial Maximum.<br><br>METHODS: We have characterized cryptic lineages inside P. darwini in a classic phylogeographic approach; those intraspecific lineages were considered as relevant units to construct distribution models at Last Glacial Maximum and at present, as border climatic conditions. Differences in distribution between border conditions for each lineage were interpreted as distributional responses to post-glacial climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: The species is composed of two major phylogroups: one of them has a broad distribution mainly across the valley but also in mountain ranges, whereas the other displays a disjunct distribution across both mountain ranges and always above 1500 m. The lineage distribution model under LGM climatic conditions suggests that both lineages were co-distributed in the southern portion of P. darwini's current geographic range, mainly at the valley and at the coast.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Present distribution of lineages in P. darwini is the consequence of a cryptic distributional response to climate change after LGM: postglacial northward colonization, with strict altitudinal segregation of both phylogroups.}, }
@article {pmid27450261, year = {2016}, author = {Null, SE and Prudencio, L}, title = {Climate change effects on water allocations with season dependent water rights.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {571}, number = {}, pages = {943-954}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.081}, pmid = {27450261}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Appropriative water rights allocate surface water to competing users based on seniority. Often water rights vary seasonally with spring runoff, irrigation schedules, or other non-uniform supply and demand. Downscaled monthly Coupled Model Intercomparison Project multi-model, multi-emissions scenario hydroclimate data evaluate water allocation reliability and variability with anticipated hydroclimate change. California's Tuolumne watershed is a study basin, chosen because water rights are well-defined, simple, and include competing environmental, agricultural, and urban water uses representative of most basins. We assume that dedicated environmental flows receive first priority when mandated by federal law like the Endangered Species Act or hydropower relicensing, followed by senior agricultural water rights, and finally junior urban water rights. Environmental flows vary by water year and include April pulse flows, and senior agricultural water rights are 68% larger during historical spring runoff from April through June. Results show that senior water right holders receive the largest climate-driven reductions in allocated water when peak streamflow shifts from snowmelt-dominated spring runoff to mixed snowmelt- and rainfall-dominated winter runoff. Junior water right holders have higher uncertainty from inter-annual variability. These findings challenge conventional wisdom that water shortages are absorbed by junior water users and suggest that aquatic ecosystems may be disproportionally impaired by hydroclimate change, even when environmental flows receive priority.}, }
@article {pmid27443725, year = {2016}, author = {Michalak, AM}, title = {Study role of climate change in extreme threats to water quality.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {535}, number = {7612}, pages = {349-350}, pmid = {27443725}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecosystem ; Eutrophication ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Lakes/chemistry/microbiology ; Phosphorus/metabolism ; Phytoplankton/metabolism/pathogenicity ; Rain ; *Research ; Temperature ; Water Microbiology ; Water Movements ; *Water Quality/standards ; Water Supply/standards/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Wind ; }, }
@article {pmid27443460, year = {2016}, author = {Miguel Ayala, L and van Eupen, M and Zhang, G and Pérez-Soba, M and Martorano, LG and Lisboa, LS and Beltrao, NE}, title = {Impact of agricultural expansion on water footprint in the Amazon under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {569-570}, number = {}, pages = {1159-1173}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.191}, pmid = {27443460}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Agricultural expansion and intensification are main drivers of land-use change in Brazil. Soybean is the major crop under expansion in the area. Soybean production involves large amounts of water and fertiliser that act as sources of contamination with potentially negative impacts on adjacent water bodies. These impacts might be intensified by projected climate change in tropical areas. A Water Footprint Assessment (WFA) serves as a tool to assess environmental impacts of water and fertiliser use. The aim of this study was to understand potential impacts on environmental sustainability of agricultural intensification close to a protected forest area of the Amazon under climate change. We carried out a WFA to calculate the water footprint (WF) related to soybean production, Glycine max, to understand the sustainability of the WF in the Tapajós river basin, a region in the Brazilian Amazon with large expansion and intensification of soybean. Based on global datasets, environmental hotspots - potentially unsustainable WF areas - were identified and spatially plotted in both baseline scenario (2010) and projection into 2050 through the use of a land-use change scenario that includes climate change effects. Results show green and grey WF values in 2050 increased by 304% and 268%, respectively. More than one-third of the watersheds doubled their grey WF in 2050. Soybean production in 2010 lies within sustainability limits. However, current soybean expansion and intensification trends lead to large impacts in relation to water pollution and water use, affecting protected areas. Areas not impacted in terms of water pollution dropped by 20.6% in 2050 for the whole catchment, while unsustainability increased 8.1%. Management practices such as water consumption regulations to stimulate efficient water use, reduction of crop water use and evapotranspiration, and optimal fertiliser application control could be key factors in achieving sustainability within a river basin.}, }
@article {pmid27441134, year = {2016}, author = {Ajuang, CO and Abuom, PO and Bosire, EK and Dida, GO and Anyona, DN}, title = {Determinants of climate change awareness level in upper Nyakach Division, Kisumu County, Kenya.}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {1015}, pmid = {27441134}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {Improving the understanding of climate change awareness is one of the top priorities in climate change research. While the African continent is among the regions with the highest vulnerability to climate change, research on climate knowledge and awareness is lacking. Kenya is already grappling with the impacts of climate change, which are projected to increase in a non-linear and non-predictable manner. This study sought to determine climate change awareness levels among households residing in Upper Nyakach Division, Kisumu County, Kenya using common climate change markers viz heavy rainfall, floods, droughts and temperature. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted in which 384 household heads were selected as respondents from 11 sub-locations; all located within Upper Nyakach Division. A questionnaire was used to collect data. Most (90.9 %) respondents had observed changes in the overall climate. Awareness level of climate change varied significantly across the 11 sub-locations. To further gain insight unto which variables were the most significant determinant of climate change awareness in upper Nyakach division, Kisumu county, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with Poisson error distribution was built. The model indicated that sex of the household head, education level and age significantly influenced respondents' awareness to climate change markers. Most (87 %) households reported rising temperatures over the past 20 years. Over half (55.2 %) the respondents had observed declining rains, with significant differences being observed across age groups. Up to 75 % of the respondents reported increased droughts frequency over the last 20 years, with significant differences observed across gender. Most (86.7 %) respondents reported having observed changes in water sources with significant differences reported across age groups. The respondents reported an increased prevalence of malaria with significant differences being observed among the education levels and households' main livelihoods. The general population of the Upper Nyakach Divison is aware of changing global climate. However, more effort is required in mitigating climate change as per the local settings. Awareness campaign aimed at increasing knowledge of climate change markers among community members is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid27434259, year = {2016}, author = {Jordan, S and Giersch, JJ and Muhlfeld, CC and Hotaling, S and Fanning, L and Tappenbeck, TH and Luikart, G}, title = {Correction: Loss of Genetic Diversity and Increased Subdivision in an Endemic Alpine Stonefly Threatened by Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {e0159931}, pmid = {27434259}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0157386.].}, }
@article {pmid27432981, year = {2016}, author = {Sheets, HD and Mitchell, CE and Melchin, MJ and Loxton, J and Štorch, P and Carlucci, KL and Hawkins, AD}, title = {Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {30}, pages = {8380-8385}, pmid = {27432981}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/classification/growth &amp; development ; Bayes Theorem ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Fossils ; Geologic Sediments ; Invertebrates/classification/*growth &amp; development ; Models, Biological ; Oceans and Seas ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (∼447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.}, }
@article {pmid27432777, year = {2016}, author = {Mourtzinis, S and Ortiz, BV and Damianidis, D}, title = {Climate Change and ENSO Effects on Southeastern US Climate Patterns and Maize Yield.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {29777}, pmid = {27432777}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change has a strong influence on weather patterns and significantly affects crop yields globally. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a strong influence on the U.S. climate and is related to agricultural production variability. ENSO effects are location-specific and in southeastern U.S. strongly connect with climate variability. When combined with climate change, the effects on growing season climate patterns and crop yields might be greater than expected. In our study, historical monthly precipitation and temperature data were coupled with non-irrigated maize yield data (33-43 years depending on the location) to show a potential yield suppression of ~15% for one °C increase in southeastern U.S. growing season maximum temperature. Yield suppression ranged between -25 and -2% among locations suppressing the southeastern U.S. average yield trend since 1981 by 17 kg ha(-1)year(-1) (~25%), mainly due to year-to-year June temperature anomalies. Yields varied among ENSO phases from 1971-2013, with greater yields observed during El Niño phase. During La Niña years, maximum June temperatures were higher than Neutral and El Niño, whereas June precipitation was lower than El Niño years. Our data highlight the importance of developing location-specific adaptation strategies quantifying both, climate change and ENSO effects on month-specific growing season climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid27429499, year = {2016}, author = {Mendlik, T and Gobiet, A}, title = {Selecting climate simulations for impact studies based on multivariate patterns of climate change.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {135}, number = {}, pages = {381-393}, pmid = {27429499}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: In climate change impact research it is crucial to carefully select the meteorological input for impact models. We present a method for model selection that enables the user to shrink the ensemble to a few representative members, conserving the model spread and accounting for model similarity. This is done in three steps: First, using principal component analysis for a multitude of meteorological parameters, to find common patterns of climate change within the multi-model ensemble. Second, detecting model similarities with regard to these multivariate patterns using cluster analysis. And third, sampling models from each cluster, to generate a subset of representative simulations. We present an application based on the ENSEMBLES regional multi-model ensemble with the aim to provide input for a variety of climate impact studies. We find that the two most dominant patterns of climate change relate to temperature and humidity patterns. The ensemble can be reduced from 25 to 5 simulations while still maintaining its essential characteristics. Having such a representative subset of simulations reduces computational costs for climate impact modeling and enhances the quality of the ensemble at the same time, as it prevents double-counting of dependent simulations that would lead to biased statistics.<br><br>The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1582-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.}, }
@article {pmid27427431, year = {2016}, author = {Shanahan, TM and Hughen, KA and McKay, NP and Overpeck, JT and Scholz, CA and Gosling, WD and Miller, CS and Peck, JA and King, JW and Heil, CW}, title = {CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {29587}, pmid = {27427431}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28-15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future.}, }
@article {pmid27423771, year = {2016}, author = {Nishijima, D}, title = {Product lifetime, energy efficiency and climate change: A case study of air conditioners in Japan.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {181}, number = {}, pages = {582-589}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.07.010}, pmid = {27423771}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Efficiency ; *Household Articles ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {This study proposed a modelling technique for estimating life-cycle CO2 emissions of durable goods by considering changes in product lifetime and energy efficiency. The stock and flow of durable goods was modelled by Weibull lifetime distributions and the trend in annual energy efficiency (i.e., annual electricity consumption) of an "average" durable good was formulated as a reverse logistic curve including a technologically critical value (i.e., limit energy efficiency) with respect to time. I found that when the average product lifetime is reduced, there is a trade-off between the reduction in emissions during product use (use phase), due to the additional purchases of new, more energy-efficient air conditioners, and the increase in emissions arising from the additional production of new air conditioners stimulated by the reduction of the average product lifetime. A scenario analysis focused on residential air conditioners in Japan during 1972-2013 showed that for a reduction of average lifetime of 1 year, if the air conditioner energy efficiency limit can be improved by 1.4% from the estimated current efficiency level, then CO2 emissions can be reduced by approximately the same amount as for an extension of average product lifetime of 1 year.}, }
@article {pmid27421856, year = {2016}, author = {Li, W and Xu, X and Fujibayashi, M and Niu, Q and Tanaka, N and Nishimura, O}, title = {Response of microalgae to elevated CO2 and temperature: impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {23}, number = {19}, pages = {19847-19860}, pmid = {27421856}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Bacterial Proteins/metabolism ; Biopolymers/metabolism ; Carbohydrate Metabolism/drug effects ; Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; Climate Change ; Diatoms/*drug effects/metabolism ; Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; Humic Substances ; Microalgae/*drug effects/metabolism ; Microcystis/*drug effects/metabolism ; Plant Proteins/metabolism ; Scenedesmus/*drug effects/metabolism ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {To estimate the combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on microalgae, three typical and worldwide freshwater species, the green alga Scenedesmus acuminatus, the diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana, and the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa, as well as mixes of these three species were continuously cultured in controlled environment chambers with CO2 at 390 and 1000 ppm and temperatures of 20, 25, and 30 °C. CO2 and temperature significantly affected the production of microalgae. The cell productivity increased under elevated CO2 and temperature. Although the green alga dominated in the mixed culture within all CO2 and temperature conditions, rising temperature and CO2 intensified the competition of the cyanobacterium with other microalgae. CO2 affected the extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) characteristics of the green alga and the cyanobacterium. Elevated CO2 induced the generation of humic substances in the EPS fractions of the green alga, the cyanobacterium, and the mixed culture. The extracellular carbohydrates of the diatom and the extracellular proteins of the cyanobacterium increased with elevated CO2 and temperature, while the extracellular carbohydrates and proteins of the green alga and the mixes increased under elevated CO2 and temperature. There were synergistic effects of CO2 and temperature on the productivity and the EPS of microalgae. Climate change related CO2 and temperature increases will promote autochthonous organic carbon production in aquatic ecosystems and facilitate the proliferation of cyanobacteria, which potentially changes the carbon cycling and undermines the functioning of ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid27420171, year = {2016}, author = {Brassard, P and Godbout, S and Raghavan, V}, title = {Soil biochar amendment as a climate change mitigation tool: Key parameters and mechanisms involved.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {181}, number = {}, pages = {484-497}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.06.063}, pmid = {27420171}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Charcoal ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Policy ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Soil/*chemistry ; Waste Management/*methods ; }, abstract = {Biochar, a solid porous material obtained from the carbonization of biomass under low or no oxygen conditions, has been proposed as a climate change mitigation tool because it is expected to sequester carbon (C) for centuries and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils. This review aimed to identify key biochar properties and production parameters that have an effect on these specific applications of the biochar. Moreover, mechanisms involved in interactions between biochar and soils were highlighted. Following a compilation and comparison of the characteristics of 76 biochars from 40 research studies, biochars with a lower N content, and consequently a higher C/N ratio (>30), were found to be more suitable for mitigation of N2O emissions from soils. Moreover, biochars produced at a higher pyrolysis temperature, and with O/C ratio <0.2, H/Corg ratio <0.4 and volatile matter below 80% may have high C sequestration potential. Based on these observations, biochar production and application to the field can be used as a tool to mitigate climate change. However, it is important to determine the pyrolysis conditions and feedstock needed to produce a biochar with the desired properties for a specific application. More research studies are needed to identify the exact mechanisms involved following biochar amendment to soil.}, }
@article {pmid27418072, year = {2016}, author = {Kumar, M}, title = {Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {188}, number = {8}, pages = {465}, pmid = {27418072}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Food Supply/*standards ; Forecasting ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nutrition Policy ; Population Growth ; Temperature ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {In recent times, several studies around the globe indicate that climatic changes are likely to impact the food production and poses serious challenge to food security. In the face of climate change, agricultural systems need to adapt measures for not only increasing food supply catering to the growing population worldwide with changing dietary patterns but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on the earth. Crop simulation models are the primary tools available to assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production and informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management. In consideration with the important issue, this is an attempt to provide a review on the relationship between climate change impacts and crop production. It also emphasizes the role of crop simulation models in achieving food security. Significant progress has been made in understanding the potential consequences of environment-related temperature and precipitation effect on agricultural production during the last half century. Increased CO2 fertilization has enhanced the potential impacts of climate change, but its feasibility is still in doubt and debates among researchers. To assess the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture, different crop simulation models have been developed, to provide informative strategies to avoid risks and understand the physical and biological processes. Furthermore, they can help in crop improvement programmes by identifying appropriate future crop management practises and recognizing the traits having the greatest impact on yield. Nonetheless, climate change assessment through model is subjected to a range of uncertainties. The prediction uncertainty can be reduced by using multimodel, incorporating crop modelling with plant physiology, biochemistry and gene-based modelling. For devloping new model, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for model testing. Therefore, assessment of agricultural productivity to sustain food security for generations is essential to maintain a collective knowledge and resources for preventing negative impact as well as managing crop practises.}, }
@article {pmid27414998, year = {2016}, author = {Kaiho, K and Oshima, N and Adachi, K and Adachi, Y and Mizukami, T and Fujibayashi, M and Saito, R}, title = {Global climate change driven by soot at the K-Pg boundary as the cause of the mass extinction.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {28427}, pmid = {27414998}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The mass extinction of life 66 million years ago at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary, marked by the extinctions of dinosaurs and shallow marine organisms, is important because it led to the macroevolution of mammals and appearance of humans. The current hypothesis for the extinction is that an asteroid impact in present-day Mexico formed condensed aerosols in the stratosphere, which caused the cessation of photosynthesis and global near-freezing conditions. Here, we show that the stratospheric aerosols did not induce darkness that resulted in milder cooling than previously thought. We propose a new hypothesis that latitude-dependent climate changes caused by massive stratospheric soot explain the known mortality and survival on land and in oceans at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary. The stratospheric soot was ejected from the oil-rich area by the asteroid impact and was spread globally. The soot aerosols caused sufficiently colder climates at mid-high latitudes and drought with milder cooling at low latitudes on land, in addition to causing limited cessation of photosynthesis in global oceans within a few months to two years after the impact, followed by surface-water cooling in global oceans in a few years. The rapid climate change induced terrestrial extinctions followed by marine extinctions over several years.}, }
@article {pmid27416325, year = {2017}, author = {Ash, JD and Givnish, TJ and Waller, DM}, title = {Tracking lags in historical plant species' shifts in relation to regional climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {1305-1315}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13429}, pmid = {27416325}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Wisconsin ; }, abstract = {Can species shift their distributions fast enough to track changes in climate? We used abundance data from the 1950s and the 2000s in Wisconsin to measure shifts in the distribution and abundance of 78 forest-understory plant species over the last half-century and compare these shifts to changes in climate. We estimated temporal shifts in the geographic distribution of each species using vectors to connect abundance-weighted centroids from the 1950s and 2000s. These shifts in distribution reflect colonization, extirpation, and changes in abundance within sites, separately quantified here. We then applied climate analog analyses to compute vectors representing the climate change that each species experienced. Species shifted mostly to the northwest (mean: 49 ± 29 km) primarily reflecting processes of colonization and changes in local abundance. Analog climates for these species shifted even further to the northwest, however, exceeding species' shifts by an average of 90 ± 40 km. Most species thus failed to match recent rates of climate change. These lags decline in species that have colonized more sites and those with broader site occupancy, larger seed mass, and higher habitat fidelity. Thus, species' traits appear to affect their responses to climate change, but relationships are weak. As climate change accelerates, these lags will likely increase, potentially threatening the persistence of species lacking the capacity to disperse to new sites or locally adapt. However, species with greater lags have not yet declined more in abundance. The extent of these threats will likely depend on how other drivers of ecological change and interactions among species affect their responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27410969, year = {2016}, author = {Dannenmann, M and Bimüller, C and Gschwendtner, S and Leberecht, M and Tejedor, J and Bilela, S and Gasche, R and Hanewinkel, M and Baltensweiler, A and Kögel-Knabner, I and Polle, A and Schloter, M and Simon, J and Rennenberg, H}, title = {Climate Change Impairs Nitrogen Cycling in European Beech Forests.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {e0158823}, pmid = {27410969}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Ammonia/*metabolism ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Droughts ; Europe ; Fagus/*metabolism ; Forests ; Hot Temperature ; Mycorrhizae/growth &amp; development ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Nitrogen Cycle/*physiology ; Oxidation-Reduction ; Oxidoreductases/genetics ; Soil/chemistry ; Trees/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {European beech forests growing on marginal calcareous soils have been proposed to be vulnerable to decreased soil water availability. This could result in a large-scale loss of ecological services and economical value in a changing climate. In order to evaluate the potential consequences of this drought-sensitivity, we investigated potential species range shifts for European beech forests on calcareous soil in the 21st century by statistical species range distribution modelling for present day and projected future climate conditions. We found a dramatic decline by 78% until 2080. Still the physiological or biogeochemical mechanisms underlying the drought sensitivity of European beech are largely unknown. Drought sensitivity of beech is commonly attributed to plant physiological constraints. Furthermore, it has also been proposed that reduced soil water availability could promote nitrogen (N) limitation of European beech due to impaired microbial N cycling in soil, but this hypothesis has not yet been tested. Hence we investigated the influence of simulated climate change (increased temperatures, reduced soil water availability) on soil gross microbial N turnover and plant N uptake in the beech-soil interface of a typical mountainous beech forest stocking on calcareous soil in SW Germany. For this purpose, triple 15N isotope labelling of intact beech seedling-soil-microbe systems was combined with a space-for-time climate change experiment. We found that nitrate was the dominant N source for beech natural regeneration. Reduced soil water content caused a persistent decline of ammonia oxidizing bacteria and therefore, a massive attenuation of gross nitrification rates and nitrate availability in the soil. Consequently, nitrate and total N uptake of beech seedlings were strongly reduced so that impaired growth of beech seedlings was observed already after one year of exposure to simulated climatic change. We conclude that the N cycle in this ecosystem and here specifically nitrification is vulnerable to reduced water availability, which can directly lead to nutritional limitations of beech seedlings. This tight link between reduced water availability, drought stress for nitrifiers, decreased gross nitrification rates and nitrate availability and finally nitrate uptake by beech seedlings could represent the Achilles' heel for beech under climate change stresses.}, }
@article {pmid27404276, year = {2016}, author = {Pinceel, T and Vanschoenwinkel, B and Brendonck, L and Buschke, F}, title = {Modelling the sensitivity of life history traits to climate change in a temporary pool crustacean.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {29451}, pmid = {27404276}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Anostraca/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; *Life History Traits ; Ovum/physiology ; Zooplankton/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Temporary pool inhabitants face altered inundation regimes under climate change. While their exposure to these changes has received considerable attention, few studies have investigated their sensitivity or adaptability. Here, we use zooplankton as a model to explore how decreasing hydroperiods affect extinction risks and assess whether changes in life history traits could promote persistence. For this, we construct a three-stage matrix population model parameterised with realistic life-history values for the fairy shrimp Branchipodopsis wolfi from pools with varying hydroperiods. Our results suggest that extinction risks increase drastically once the median hydroperiod drops below a critical threshold. Although changes in life-history parameters could potentially compensate for this risk, the relative importance of each trait for population growth depends on the median hydroperiod. For example, survival of dormant eggs seemed to be most important when hydroperiods were short while the survival of freshly laid eggs and adult individuals were more important in longer-lived pools. Overall, this study demonstrates that zooplankton species are sensitive to climate change and that the adaptive capacity of organisms from temporary pools with dissimilar hydrology hinges on selection of different life history traits.}, }
@article {pmid27402077, year = {2016}, author = {Xiang, J and Hansen, A and Pisaniello, D and Bi, P}, title = {Workers' perceptions of climate change related extreme heat exposure in South Australia: a cross-sectional survey.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {549}, pmid = {27402077}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Adult ; Age Factors ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Female ; Heat Stress Disorders/*prevention &amp; control/psychology ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Occupational Exposure/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Occupational Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Safety ; South Australia ; Workplace/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Occupational exposure to extreme heat without sufficient protection may not only increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and injuries but also compromise economic productivity. With predictions of more frequent and intense bouts of hot weather, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers' health and safety. This study aims to investigate workers' perceptions and behavioural responses towards extreme heat exposure in a warming climate.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in 2012 in South Australia among selected outdoor industries. Workers' heat risk perceptions were measured in the following five aspects: concerns about heat exposure, attitudes towards more training, policy and guideline support, the adjustment of work habits, and degree of satisfaction of current preventive measures. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors significantly associated with workers' heat perceptions.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 749 respondents participated in this survey, with a response rate of 50.9&#xa0;%. A little more than half (51.2&#xa0;%) of respondents were moderately or very much concerned about workplace heat exposure. Factors associated with workers' heat concerns included age, undertaking very physically demanding work, and the use of personal protective equipment, heat illness history, and injury experience during hot weather. Less than half (43.4&#xa0;%) of the respondents had received heat-related training. Workers aged 25-54 years and those with previous heat-related illness/injury history showed more supportive attitudes towards heat-related training. The provision of cool drinking water was the most common heat prevention measure. A little more than half (51.4&#xa0;%) of respondents were satisfied with the current heat prevention measures. About two-thirds (63.8&#xa0;%) of respondents agreed that there should be more heat-related regulations and guidelines for working during very hot weather. More than two-thirds (68.8&#xa0;%) of the respondents were willing to adjust their current work habits to adapt to the likely increasing extreme heat, especially those with previous heat illness experience.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest a need to strengthen workers' heat risk awareness and refine current heat prevention strategies in a warming climate. Further heat educational programmes and training should focus on those undertaking physically demanding work outdoors, in particular young workers and those over 55&#xa0;years with low education levels.}, }
@article {pmid27398619, year = {2016}, author = {Norris, JR and Allen, RJ and Evan, AT and Zelinka, MD and O'Dell, CW and Klein, SA}, title = {Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {536}, number = {7614}, pages = {72-75}, pmid = {27398619}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Clouds substantially affect Earth's energy budget by reflecting solar radiation back to space and by restricting emission of thermal radiation to space. They are perhaps the largest uncertainty in our understanding of climate change, owing to disagreement among climate models and observational datasets over what cloud changes have occurred during recent decades and will occur in response to global warming. This is because observational systems originally designed for monitoring weather have lacked sufficient stability to detect cloud changes reliably over decades unless they have been corrected to remove artefacts. Here we show that several independent, empirically corrected satellite records exhibit large-scale patterns of cloud change between the 1980s and the 2000s that are similar to those produced by model simulations of climate with recent historical external radiative forcing. Observed and simulated cloud change patterns are consistent with poleward retreat of mid-latitude storm tracks, expansion of subtropical dry zones, and increasing height of the highest cloud tops at all latitudes. The primary drivers of these cloud changes appear to be increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and a recovery from volcanic radiative cooling. These results indicate that the cloud changes most consistently predicted by global climate models are currently occurring in nature.}, }
@article {pmid27396719, year = {2016}, author = {Queirós, AM and Huebert, KB and Keyl, F and Fernandes, JA and Stolte, W and Maar, M and Kay, S and Jones, MC and Hamon, KG and Hendriksen, G and Vermard, Y and Marchal, P and Teal, LR and Somerfield, PJ and Austen, MC and Barange, M and Sell, AF and Allen, I and Peck, MA}, title = {Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {12}, pages = {3927-3936}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13423}, pmid = {27396719}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.}, }
@article {pmid27396714, year = {2016}, author = {Frishkoff, LO and Karp, DS and Flanders, JR and Zook, J and Hadly, EA and Daily, GC and M'Gonigle, LK}, title = {Climate change and habitat conversion favour the same species.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {1081-1090}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12645}, pmid = {27396714}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Costa Rica ; *Forests ; }, abstract = {Land-use change and climate change are driving a global biodiversity crisis. Yet, how species' responses to climate change are correlated with their responses to land-use change is poorly understood. Here, we assess the linkages between climate and land-use change on birds in Neotropical forest and agriculture. Across > 300 species, we show that affiliation with drier climates is associated with an ability to persist in and colonise agriculture. Further, species shift their habitat use along a precipitation gradient: species prefer forest in drier regions, but use agriculture more in wetter zones. Finally, forest-dependent species that avoid agriculture are most likely to experience decreases in habitable range size if current drying trends in the Neotropics continue as predicted. This linkage suggests a synergy between the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Because they favour the same species, climate and land-use change will likely homogenise biodiversity more severely than otherwise anticipated.}, }
@article {pmid27396061, year = {2016}, author = {Rushton, E}, title = {One nurse's climate change journey.}, journal = {Nursing New Zealand (Wellington, N.Z. : 1995)}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {22-3, 41}, pmid = {27396061}, issn = {1173-2032}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate Change ; *Diet, Vegan ; Humans ; New Zealand ; Nurse's Role ; *Nurses ; *Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid27390633, year = {2016}, author = {Balama, C and Augustino, S and Eriksen, S and Makonda, FB}, title = {Forest adjacent households' voices on their perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change in Kilombero District, Tanzania.}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {792}, pmid = {27390633}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {Climate change is a global and local challenge to both sustainable livelihoods and economic development. Tanzania as other countries of the world has been affected. Several studies have been conducted on farmers' perceptions and adaptation to climate change in the country, but little attention has been devoted to forest adjacent households in humid areas. This study assessed this gap through assessing forest adjacent households' voices on perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change in Kilombero District, Tanzania. Data collection involved key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household questionnaires. Results showed that the majority of households perceived changed climate in terms of temperature increase, unpredictable rainfall, frequent occurrence of floods, increased dry spells during rainy season coupled with decreased water sources and emergence of new pests and diseases. The perceived change in climate has impacted agriculture productivity as the main livelihood source. Different coping and adaptation strategies are employed. These are; crop diversification, changing cropping calendar, adopting modern farming technologies, and increasing reliance on non-timber forest products. These strategies were positively and significantly influenced by socio-economic factors including household size, residence period, land ownership and household income. The study concludes that, there are changes in climatic conditions; and to respond to these climatic changes, forest adjacent households have developed numerous coping and adaptation strategies, which were positively and significantly influenced by some socio-economic factors. The study calls for actual implementation of local climate change policies and strategies in order to enhance adaptive capacity at household level.}, }
@article {pmid27388896, year = {2016}, author = {Rosol, R and Powell-Hellyer, S and Chan, HM}, title = {Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {75}, number = {}, pages = {31127}, pmid = {27388896}, issn = {2242-3982}, support = {//CIHR/Canada ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Animals, Wild ; Arctic Regions ; Diet/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Dietary Fats ; Edible Grain ; Female ; *Food Preferences ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Inuit/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Male ; *Nutritional Status ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species.<br><br>METHODS: Data collected during the 2007-2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used.<br><br>RESULTS: A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline) resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.}, }
@article {pmid27387343, year = {2016}, author = {Villalbí, JR and Ventayol, I}, title = {Climate Change and Health in the Urban Context: The Experience of Barcelona.}, journal = {International journal of health services : planning, administration, evaluation}, volume = {46}, number = {3}, pages = {389-405}, doi = {10.1177/0020731416643444}, pmid = {27387343}, issn = {1541-4469}, mesh = {Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; *Cities ; *City Planning ; *Climate Change ; *Health Planning ; Humans ; Malaria/prevention &amp; control ; Spain ; *Urban Health ; Water Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses huge challenges for public health, and cities are at the forefront of this process. The purpose of this paper is to present the issues climate change poses for public health in the city of Barcelona, how they are being addressed, and what are the current major challenges, trying to contribute to the development of a baseline understanding of the status of adaptation in cities from a public health perspective. The major issues related to climate change faced by the city are common to other urban centers in a Mediterranean climate: heat waves, water availability and quality, air quality, and diseases transmitted by vectors, and all are reviewed in detail with empirical data. They are not a potential threat for the future, but have actually challenged the city services and infrastructure over the last years, requiring sustainable responses and rigorous planning.}, }
@article {pmid27387153, year = {2017}, author = {Rollins-Smith, LA}, title = {Amphibian immunity-stress, disease, and climate change.}, journal = {Developmental and comparative immunology}, volume = {66}, number = {}, pages = {111-119}, doi = {10.1016/j.dci.2016.07.002}, pmid = {27387153}, issn = {1879-0089}, mesh = {Amphibians/*immunology/microbiology/virology ; Animals ; Chytridiomycota/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Hypothalamo-Hypophyseal System ; Immune System ; *Immunity, Innate ; Pituitary-Adrenal System ; Ranavirus/*physiology ; Stress, Physiological/*immunology ; }, abstract = {Like all other vertebrate groups, amphibian responses to the environment are mediated through the brain (hypothalamic)-pituitary-adrenal/interrenal (HPA/I) axis and the sympathetic nervous system. Amphibians are facing historically unprecedented environmental stress due to climate change that will involve unpredictable temperature and rainfall regimes and possible nutritional deficits due to extremes of temperature and drought. At the same time, amphibians in all parts of the world are experiencing unprecedented declines due to the emerging diseases, chytridiomycosis (caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans) and ranavirus diseases due to viruses of the genus Ranavirus in the family Iridoviridae. Other pathogens and parasites also afflict amphibians, but here I will limit myself to a review of recent literature linking stress and these emerging diseases (chytridiomycosis and ranavirus disease) in order to better predict how environmental stressors and disease will affect global amphibian populations.}, }
@article {pmid27386558, year = {2016}, author = {Salzmann, M}, title = {Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {2}, number = {6}, pages = {e1501572}, pmid = {27386558}, issn = {2375-2548}, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Climate ; Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; }, abstract = {Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.}, }
@article {pmid27386514, year = {2016}, author = {Palmer, G and Hill, JK and Brereton, TM and Brooks, DR and Chapman, JW and Fox, R and Oliver, TH and Thomas, CD}, title = {Retraction of the Research Article: "Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species' distribution and abundance changes".}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {e1600819}, pmid = {27386514}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {[This retracts the article on p. e1400220 in vol. 1, PMID: 26601276.].}, }
@article {pmid27386296, year = {2016}, author = {Yéo, WE and Goula, BT and Diekkrüger, B and Afouda, A}, title = {Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Comoe River Basin (West Africa).}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {847}, pmid = {27386296}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {Climate change is impacting water users in many sectors: water supply, farming, industry, hydropower, fishing, housing, navigation and health. Existing situations, like population growth, movement of populations from rural to urban areas, poverty and pollution can aggravate the impacts of climate change. The aim of the study is to evaluate the vulnerability of different water user groups to climate change and define communities' adaptation strategies in the Comoe River Basin. Information was collected on communities' concerns and perception on changes in climate and potential adaptation measures and strategies. Results show that 95 % of the sample in the study communities had heard of it and are aware that climate change is occurring. They have been experiencing changes in economic activity and cropping pattern, reduced water level in rivers, crop failure, delay in cropping season, new pests and diseases, food insecurity, drop in income and decline in crop yield. Results also show that communities employ various adaptation strategies including crops diversification, substitution and calendar redefinition, agroforestry, borrowing from friends and money lenders and increasing fertilizer application.}, }
@article {pmid27386098, year = {2016}, author = {Ortega, Z and Mencía, A and Pérez-Mellado, V}, title = {Behavioral buffering of global warming in a cold-adapted lizard.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {13}, pages = {4582-4590}, pmid = {27386098}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Alpine lizards living in restricted areas might be particularly sensitive to climate change. We studied thermal biology of Iberolacerta cyreni in high mountains of central Spain. Our results suggest that I. cyreni is a cold-adapted thermal specialist and an effective thermoregulator. Among ectotherms, thermal specialists are more threatened by global warming than generalists. Alpine lizards have no chance to disperse to new suitable habitats. In addition, physiological plasticity is unlikely to keep pace with the expected rates of environmental warming. Thus, lizards might rely on their behavior in order to deal with ongoing climate warming. Plasticity of thermoregulatory behavior has been proposed to buffer the rise of environmental temperatures. Therefore, we studied the change in body and environmental temperatures, as well as their relationships, for I. cyreni between the 1980s and 2012. Air temperatures have increased more than 3.5°C and substrate temperatures have increased by 6°C in the habitat of I. cyreni over the last 25 years. However, body temperatures of lizards have increased less than 2°C in the same period, and the linear relationship between body and environmental temperatures remains similar. These results show that alpine lizards are buffering the potential impact of the increase in their environmental temperatures, most probably by means of their behavior. Body temperatures of I. cyreni are still cold enough to avoid any drop in fitness. Nonetheless, if warming continues, behavioral buffering might eventually become useless, as it would imply spending too much time in shelter, losing feeding, and mating opportunities. Eventually, if body temperature exceeds the thermal optimum in the near future, fitness would decrease abruptly.}, }
@article {pmid27386089, year = {2016}, author = {Bancroft, BA and Lawler, JJ and Schumaker, NH}, title = {Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land-use change on an endangered bird.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {13}, pages = {4468-4477}, pmid = {27386089}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change and land-use change are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. Land-use change has resulted in extensive habitat loss for many species. Likewise, climate change has affected many species resulting in range shifts, changes in phenology, and altered interactions. We used a spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore the effects of land-use change and climate change on a population of the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (RCW; Picoides borealis). We modeled the effects of land-use change using multiple scenarios representing different spatial arrangements of new training areas for troops across Fort Benning. We used projected climate-driven changes in habitat and changes in reproductive output to explore the potential effects of climate change. We summarized potential changes in habitat based on the output of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, run for multiple climate change scenarios through the year 2100. We projected potential changes in reproduction based on an empirical relationship between spring precipitation and the mean number of successful fledglings produced per nest attempt. As modeled in our study, climate change had virtually no effect on the RCW population. Conversely, simulated effects of land-use change resulted in the loss of up to 28 breeding pairs by 2100. However, the simulated impacts of development depended on where the development occurred and could be completely avoided if the new training areas were placed in poor-quality habitat. Our results demonstrate the flexibility inherent in many systems that allows seemingly incompatible human land uses, such as development, and conservation actions to exist side by side.}, }
@article {pmid27386086, year = {2016}, author = {Bi, H and Yue, W and Wang, X and Zou, J and Li, L and Liu, J and Sun, Y}, title = {Late Pleistocene climate change promoted divergence between Picea asperata and P. crassifolia on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau through recent bottlenecks.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {13}, pages = {4435-4444}, pmid = {27386086}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Divergence during the early stage of speciation can be driven by a population bottleneck via reduced gene flow and enhanced lineage sorting. In this study, we aimed to examine whether such bottlenecks occurred during the initial speciation of two closely related spruce species Picea asperata and P. crassifolia occurring on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). We analyzed sequences of three chloroplast, two mitochondrial DNA fragments and a further 13 nuclear loci from 216 individuals of the two species. Both species showed a low level of genetic diversity in contrast to other congeners occurring in the QTP and adjacent regions. The estimated population sizes of P. asperata and P. crassifolia are less than the ancestral population size before splitting. These results together with multiple statistical tests (Tajima's D, Fu and Li's D* and F*) suggest that these two species underwent recent bottlenecks. Based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we also determined that the period of the population shrinkage was consistent with the interspecific divergence during the late Pleistocene. The reduced population sizes and the divergent selection may together have triggered the initial divergence under high gene flow between these two species. Our results therefore highlight the importance of climatic oscillations during the late Pleistocene in promoting speciation through changing demographic sizes of the ancestral species on the QTP and in adjacent regions.}, }
@article {pmid27384634, year = {2016}, author = {Avilez, JL and Bazalar, J and Azañedo, D and Miranda, JJ}, title = {[Peru, climate change and non-communicable diseases: ¿where are we and where are we headed?].}, journal = {Revista peruana de medicina experimental y salud publica}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {143-148}, pmid = {27384634}, issn = {1726-4642}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; Humans ; *Noncommunicable Diseases ; Peru ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {The world is facing a crisis of noncommunicable diseases alongside a state of climate volatility. Of the total health burden attributable to climate change, 99% will be assumed by developing countries. In light of climate change, Peru's best opportunity is to create mitigation and adaptation policies focused on developing health co-benefits, which will improve the state of noncommunicable diseases and the climate system. This article presents Peru's compromises in terms of mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions; identifies public health opportunities for Peru under the Paris Agreement signed in the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21); and makes recommendations for evidence and policy generation for the National Academy of Medicine and the Peruvian government.}, }
@article {pmid27384633, year = {2016}, author = {Roda, TB}, title = {[Role of the health sector in climate change].}, journal = {Revista peruana de medicina experimental y salud publica}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {139-142}, pmid = {27384633}, issn = {1726-4642}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {This article compiles the conclusions and results of several studies conducted by global and intergovernmental organizations involved in the research and promotion of policies and strategies for a successful and efficient management of the negative effects of climate change in public health. It is also a call for awareness the health community regarding their protagonist and strategic role to be assumed in relation to this global phenomenon which requires the coordinated cross-sectoral and inter-institution collaboration to achieve true social and environmental resilience.}, }
@article {pmid27384632, year = {2016}, author = {Sánchez Zavaleta, CA}, title = {[Evolution of the climate change concept and its impact in the public health of Peru].}, journal = {Revista peruana de medicina experimental y salud publica}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {128-138}, pmid = {27384632}, issn = {1726-4642}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; Peru ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {The term "climate change" is not a new concept but its impact on public health is under constant review. We know that climate has already changed and will continue to change for centuries with the rise in average global temperature, and the associated rise in sea level. This fact makes mitigation efforts relevant only in the very long term and for generations of humans whose parents have not yet been born. When we talk about public health in the context of climate change, we are talking about adaptation. In the present, countries that are currently the most affected by climate change are precisely countries like Peru, without a significant carbon footprint at the global level but that are highly sensitive to the effects of climate. Without reliable climate projections, the health impact of climate change can be uncertain and complicated. Nevertheless, at the local level, every district can identify its vulnerabilities and define priorities to protect the health of its population. There are, and it can also be developed, environmental health indicators that can help monitor how well we are adapting and how prepared we are for changes in the climate. Adaptation to climate change implies improving living conditions, enhancing epidemiological surveillance systems and extending access to healthcare. The fight against the effects of climate change in public health is a fight against poverty and inequality, and that is nothing new in Peru.}, }
@article {pmid27384616, year = {2016}, author = {Figueroa, R}, title = {[Climate change and health].}, journal = {Revista peruana de medicina experimental y salud publica}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {7-9}, pmid = {27384616}, issn = {1726-4642}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid27382472, year = {2016}, author = {Lefevre, S}, title = {Are global warming and ocean acidification conspiring against marine ectotherms? A meta-analysis of the respiratory effects of elevated temperature, high CO2 and their interaction.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {cow009}, pmid = {27382472}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {With the occurrence of global change, research aimed at estimating the performance of marine ectotherms in a warmer and acidified future has intensified. The concept of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance, which is inspired by the Fry paradigm of a bell-shaped increase-optimum-decrease-type response of aerobic scope to increasing temperature, but also includes proposed negative and synergistic effects of elevated CO2 levels, has been suggested as a unifying framework. The objectives of this meta-analysis were to assess the following: (i) the generality of a bell-shaped relationship between absolute aerobic scope (AAS) and temperature; (ii) to what extent elevated CO2 affects resting oxygen uptake MO2rest and AAS; and (iii) whether there is an interaction between elevated temperature and CO2. The behavioural effects of CO2 are also briefly discussed. In 31 out of 73 data sets (both acutely exposed and acclimated), AAS increased and remained above 90% of the maximum, whereas a clear thermal optimum was observed in the remaining 42 data sets. Carbon dioxide caused a significant rise in MO2rest in only 18 out of 125 data sets, and a decrease in 25, whereas it caused a decrease in AAS in four out of 18 data sets and an increase in two. The analysis did not reveal clear evidence for an overall correlation with temperature, CO2 regime or duration of CO2 treatment. When CO2 had an effect, additive rather than synergistic interactions with temperature were most common and, interestingly, they even interacted antagonistically on MO2rest and AAS. The behavioural effects of CO2 could complicate experimental determination of respiratory performance. Overall, this meta-analysis reveals heterogeneity in the responses to elevated temperature and CO2 that is not in accordance with the idea of a single unifying principle and which cannot be ignored in attempts to model and predict the impacts of global warming and ocean acidification on marine ectotherms.}, }
@article {pmid27382141, year = {2016}, author = {Boucher, O and Bellassen, V and Benveniste, H and Ciais, P and Criqui, P and Guivarch, C and Le Treut, H and Mathy, S and Séférian, R}, title = {Opinion: In the wake of Paris Agreement, scientists must embrace new directions for climate change research.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {27}, pages = {7287-7290}, pmid = {27382141}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid27380393, year = {2016}, author = {Song, JH and Lee, Y and Lee, DS}, title = {Development of a multimedia model (POPsLTEA) to assess the influence of climate change on the fate and transport of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in East Asia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {569-570}, number = {}, pages = {690-699}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.127}, pmid = {27380393}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Asia, Eastern ; Models, Theoretical ; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/*analysis ; }, abstract = {A dynamic multimedia model (POPsLTEA) for an East Asia region was developed and evaluated to quantitatively assess how climate change (CC) alters the environmental fate and transport dynamics of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in air, water, soil, and sediment. To cover the entire model domain (25°N-50°N and 98°E-148°E) where China, Japan, and South and North Koreas are of primary concern, a total of 5000 main cells of 50km×50km size were used while 1008 cells of a finer spatial resolution (12.5km×12.5km) was nested for South Korea (33°N-38°N and 126°E-132°E). Most of the predicted concentrations agreed with the observed values within one order of magnitude with a tendency of overestimation for air and sediment. Prediction of the atmospheric concentration was statistically significant in both coincidence and association, suggesting the model's potential to successfully predict the fate and transport of the PAHs as influenced by CC. An example study of benzo(a)pyrene demonstrates that direction and strength of the CC influence on the pollution levels vary with the location and environmental media. As compared to the five year period of 2011 to 2015, the changes across the model domain in the annual geometric mean concentration over the years of 2021 through 2100 were predicted to range from 88% to 304%, from 84% to 109%, from 32% to 362%, and from 49% to 303%, in air, soil, surface water, and sea water, respectively, under the scenario of RCP8.5.}, }
@article {pmid27377632, year = {2016}, author = {Petersen, SV and Dutton, A and Lohmann, KC}, title = {End-Cretaceous extinction in Antarctica linked to both Deccan volcanism and meteorite impact via climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {12079}, pmid = {27377632}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {The cause of the end-Cretaceous (KPg) mass extinction is still debated due to difficulty separating the influences of two closely timed potential causal events: eruption of the Deccan Traps volcanic province and impact of the Chicxulub meteorite. Here we combine published extinction patterns with a new clumped isotope temperature record from a hiatus-free, expanded KPg boundary section from Seymour Island, Antarctica. We document a 7.8±3.3 °C warming synchronous with the onset of Deccan Traps volcanism and a second, smaller warming at the time of meteorite impact. Local warming may have been amplified due to simultaneous disappearance of continental or sea ice. Intra-shell variability indicates a possible reduction in seasonality after Deccan eruptions began, continuing through the meteorite event. Species extinction at Seymour Island occurred in two pulses that coincide with the two observed warming events, directly linking the end-Cretaceous extinction at this site to both volcanic and meteorite events via climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27376921, year = {2016}, author = {Masciopinto, C and Liso, IS}, title = {Assessment of the impact of sea-level rise due to climate change on coastal groundwater discharge.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {569-570}, number = {}, pages = {672-680}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.183}, pmid = {27376921}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {An assessment of sea intrusion into coastal aquifers as a consequence of local sea-level rise (LSLR) due to climate change was carried out at Murgia and Salento in southern Italy. The interpolation of sea-level measurements at three tide-gauge stations was performed during the period of 2000 to 2014. The best fit of measurements shows an increasing rate of LSLR ranging from 4.4mm/y to 8.8mm/y, which will result in a maximum LSLR of approximately 2m during the 22nd century. The local rate of sea-level rise matches recent 21st and 22nd century projections of mean global sea-level rise determined by other researchers, which include increased melting rates of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the effect of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and changes in the quantity of stored land water. Subsequently, Ghyben-Herzberg's equation for the freshwater/saltwater interface was rewritten in order to determine the decrease in groundwater discharge due to the maximum LSLR. Groundwater flow simulations and ArcGIS elaborations of digital elevation models of the coast provided input data for the Ghyben-Herzberg calculation under the assumption of head-controlled systems. The progression of seawater intrusion due to LSLR suggests an impressive depletion of available groundwater discharge during the 22nd century, perhaps as much as 16.1% of current groundwater pumping for potable water in Salento.}, }
@article {pmid27375653, year = {2016}, author = {Wieser, G and Oberhuber, W and Gruber, A and Leo, M and Matyssek, R and Grams, TE}, title = {Stable Water Use Efficiency under Climate Change of Three Sympatric Conifer Species at the Alpine Treeline.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {799}, pmid = {27375653}, issn = {1664-462X}, support = {P 22206/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, abstract = {The ability of treeline associated conifers in the Central Alps to cope with recent climate warming and increasing CO2 concentration is still poorly understood. We determined tree ring stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of Pinus cembra, Picea abies, and Larix decidua trees from 1975 to 2010. Stable isotope ratios were compared with leaf level gas exchange measurements carried out in situ between 1979 and 2007. Results indicate that tree ring derived intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of P. cembra, P. abies and L. decidua remained constant during the last 36 years despite climate warming and rising atmospheric CO2. Temporal patterns in Δ(13)C and Δ(18)O mirrored leaf level gas exchange assessments, suggesting parallel increases of CO2-fixation and stomatal conductance of treeline conifer species. As at the study site soil water availability was not a limiting factor iWUE remained largely stable throughout the study period. The stability in iWUE was accompanied by an increase in basal area increment (BAI) suggesting that treeline trees benefit from both recent climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Finally, our results suggest that iWUE may not change species composition at treeline in the Austrian Alps due to similar ecophysiological responses to climatic changes of the three sympatric study species.}, }
@article {pmid27375273, year = {2016}, author = {Williams, JD and Boyko, CB}, title = {Introduction to the Symposium: Parasites and Pests in Motion: Biology, Biodiversity and Climate Change.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {556-560}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icw085}, pmid = {27375273}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Host-Pathogen Interactions/physiology ; Parasites/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Although climate change can cause extreme alterations to ecosystems, only limited research has investigated how altered physical conditions (e.g., warming, extreme temperature events, sea level rise, ocean acidification, and altered precipitation) influence species interactions. In particular, the interplay between host and parasites in such a changing world is in need of study. Our objective in organizing this symposium was to bring together researchers working on a wide variety of natural enemies (parasites, pathogens, and pests), to exchange knowledge on how aspects of global climate change may alter the distribution and ecology of these organisms and their hosts. It is our intention that the symposium and the resulting articles will foster more accurate modeling of and predictions about the impacts of climate change on the biology and ecology of natural enemies and their hosts.}, }
@article {pmid27373326, year = {2016}, author = {Annesi-Maesano, I}, title = {United Nations Climate Change Conferences: COP21 a lost opportunity for asthma and allergies and preparing for COP22.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {138}, number = {1}, pages = {57-58}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2016.02.043}, pmid = {27373326}, issn = {1097-6825}, mesh = {*Asthma ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Humans ; *United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid27372660, year = {2016}, author = {Pröbstl-Haider, U and Mostegl, NM and Kelemen-Finan, J and Haider, W and Formayer, H and Kantelhardt, J and Moser, T and Kapfer, M and Trenholm, R}, title = {Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {58}, number = {3}, pages = {446-464}, pmid = {27372660}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics/methods/*trends ; Austria ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/*trends ; Ecosystem ; Farmers ; Forecasting ; Forestry/economics/methods/*trends ; Humans ; *Policy Making ; }, abstract = {Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid27372250, year = {2016}, author = {Hobbs, TJ and Neumann, CR and Meyer, WS and Moon, T and Bryan, BA}, title = {Models of reforestation productivity and carbon sequestration for land use and climate change adaptation planning in South Australia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {181}, number = {}, pages = {279-288}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.06.049}, pmid = {27372250}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Biodiversity ; Biomass ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Models, Theoretical ; Soil ; South Australia ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Environmental management and regional land use planning has become more complex in recent years as growing world population, climate change, carbon markets and government policies for sustainability have emerged. Reforestation and agroforestry options for environmental benefits, carbon sequestration, economic development and biodiversity conservation are now important considerations of land use planners. New information has been collected and regionally-calibrated models have been developed to facilitate better regional land use planning decisions and counter the limitations of currently available models of reforestation productivity and carbon sequestration. Surveys of above-ground biomass of 264 reforestation sites (132 woodlots, 132 environmental plantings) within the agricultural regions of South Australia were conducted, and combined with spatial information on climate and soils, to develop new spatial and temporal models of plant density and above-ground biomass productivity from reforestation. The models can be used to estimate productivity and total carbon sequestration (i.e. above-ground + below-ground biomass) under a continuous range of planting designs (e.g. variable proportions of trees and shrubs or plant densities), timeframes and future climate scenarios. Representative spatial models (1 ha resolution) for 3 reforestation designs (i.e. woodlots, typical environmental planting, biodiverse environmental plantings) × 3 timeframes (i.e. 25, 45, 65 years) × 4 possible climates (i.e. no change, mild, moderate, severe warming and drying) were generated (i.e. 36 scenarios) for use within land use planning tools.}, }
@article {pmid27367816, year = {2016}, author = {Bauer, SK and Grotz, LS and Connelly, EB and Colosi, LM}, title = {Reevaluation of the global warming impacts of algae-derived biofuels to account for possible contributions of nitrous oxide.}, journal = {Bioresource technology}, volume = {218}, number = {}, pages = {196-201}, doi = {10.1016/j.biortech.2016.06.058}, pmid = {27367816}, issn = {1873-2976}, mesh = {*Biofuels ; Environment ; *Global Warming ; Nitrates/chemistry ; Nitrites/chemistry ; Nitrogen/*analysis/chemistry ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; Oxygen/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The environmental impacts of algae biofuels have been evaluated by life-cycle assessment (LCA); however, these analyses have overlooked nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas. A literature analysis was performed to estimate algal N2O emissions and assess the impacts of growth conditions on flux magnitudes. Nitrogen source and dissolved oxygen concentration were identified as possible key contributors; therefore, their individual and combined impacts were evaluated using bench-scale experiments. It was observed that maximum N2O emissions (77.5μg/galgae/day) occur under anoxic conditions with nitrite. Conversely, minimum emissions (6.25μg/galgae/day) occur under oxic conditions with nitrate. Aggregated N2O flux estimates were then incorporated into a LCA framework for algae biodiesel. Accounting for "low" N2O emissions mediated no significant increase (<1%) compared to existing GWP estimates; however, "high" N2O emissions mediate an increase of roughly 25%, potentially jeopardizing the anticipated economic and environmental performances of algae biofuels.}, }
@article {pmid27365446, year = {2016}, author = {Petry, WK and Soule, JD and Iler, AM and Chicas-Mosier, A and Inouye, DW and Miller, TE and Mooney, KA}, title = {Sex-specific responses to climate change in plants alter population sex ratio and performance.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {353}, number = {6294}, pages = {69-71}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaf2588}, pmid = {27365446}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropods/classification/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Pollen/physiology ; Seeds/physiology ; Sex Characteristics ; *Sex Ratio ; Valerian/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Males and females are ecologically distinct in many species, but whether responses to climate change are sex-specific is unknown. We document sex-specific responses to climate change in the plant Valeriana edulis (valerian) over four decades and across its 1800-meter elevation range. Increased elevation was associated with increased water availability and female frequency, likely owing to sex-specific water use efficiency and survival. Recent aridification caused male frequency to move upslope at 175 meters per decade, a rate of trait shift outpacing reported species' range shifts by an order of magnitude. This increase in male frequency reduced pollen limitation and increased seedset. Coupled with previous studies reporting sex-specific arthropod communities, these results underscore the importance of ecological differences between the sexes in mediating biological responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27365440, year = {2016}, author = {Etterson, JR and Mazer, SJ}, title = {ECOLOGY. How climate change affects plants' sex lives.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {353}, number = {6294}, pages = {32-33}, doi = {10.1126/science.aag1624}, pmid = {27365440}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Sex Ratio ; Valerian/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid27365315, year = {2016}, author = {Henry, LG and McManus, JF and Curry, WB and Roberts, NL and Piotrowski, AM and Keigwin, LD}, title = {North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {353}, number = {6298}, pages = {470-474}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaf5529}, pmid = {27365315}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27364884, year = {2016}, author = {Carmody, M and Waszczak, C and Idänheimo, N and Saarinen, T and Kangasjärvi, J}, title = {ROS signalling in a destabilised world: A molecular understanding of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of plant physiology}, volume = {203}, number = {}, pages = {69-83}, doi = {10.1016/j.jplph.2016.06.008}, pmid = {27364884}, issn = {1618-1328}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Reactive Oxygen Species/*metabolism ; *Signal Transduction ; Stress, Physiological ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change results in increased intensity and frequency of extreme abiotic and biotic stress events. In plants, reactive oxygen species (ROS) accumulate in proportion to the level of stress and are major signalling and regulatory metabolites coordinating growth, defence, acclimation and cell death. Our knowledge of ROS homeostasis, sensing, and signalling is therefore key to understanding the impacts of climate change at the molecular level. Current research is uncovering new insights into temporal-spatial, cell-to-cell and systemic ROS signalling pathways, particularly how these affect plant growth, defence, and more recently acclimation mechanisms behind stress priming and long term stress memory. Understanding the stabilising and destabilising factors of ROS homeostasis and signalling in plants exposed to extreme and fluctuating stress will concomitantly reveal how to address future climate change challenges in global food security and biodiversity management.}, }
@article {pmid27364126, year = {2016}, author = {Settele, J and Bishop, J and Potts, SG}, title = {Climate change impacts on pollination.}, journal = {Nature plants}, volume = {2}, number = {7}, pages = {16092}, doi = {10.1038/nplants.2016.92}, pmid = {27364126}, issn = {2055-0278}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*physiology ; *Pollination ; }, }
@article {pmid27362228, year = {2016}, author = {Visser, ME}, title = {Phenology: Interactions of climate change and species.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {535}, number = {7611}, pages = {236-237}, doi = {10.1038/nature18905}, pmid = {27362228}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid27357778, year = {2016}, author = {Hallegatte, S and Mach, KJ}, title = {Make climate-change assessments more relevant.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {534}, number = {7609}, pages = {613-615}, pmid = {27357778}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Administrative Personnel ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Communication ; *Environmental Policy ; Goals ; International Cooperation ; Models, Theoretical ; *Policy Making ; *Research Personnel ; Risk Assessment ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid27356878, year = {2016}, author = {Hollesen, J and Matthiesen, H and Møller, AB and Westergaard-Nielsen, A and Elberling, B}, title = {Climate change and the loss of organic archaeological deposits in the Arctic.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {28690}, pmid = {27356878}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average with overlooked consequences for the preservation of the rich cultural and environmental records that have been stored for millennia in archaeological deposits. In this article, we investigate the oxic degradation of different types of organic archaeological deposits located in different climatic zones in West and South Greenland. The rate of degradation is investigated based on measurements of O2 consumption, CO2 production and heat production at different temperatures and water contents. Overall, there is good consistency between the three methods. However, at one site the, O2 consumption is markedly higher than the CO2 production, highlighting the importance of combining several measures when assessing the vulnerability of organic deposits. The archaeological deposits are highly vulnerable to degradation regardless of age, depositional and environmental conditions. Degradation rates of the deposits are more sensitive to increasing temperatures than natural soils and the process is accompanied by a high microbial heat production that correlates significantly with their total carbon content. We conclude that organic archaeology in the Arctic is facing a critical challenge that requires international action.}, }
@article {pmid27352849, year = {2016}, author = {Cimino, MA and Lynch, HJ and Saba, VS and Oliver, MJ}, title = {Projected asymmetric response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {28785}, pmid = {27352849}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Population Dynamics ; Spheniscidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The contribution of climate change to shifts in a species' geographic distribution is a critical and often unresolved ecological question. Climate change in Antarctica is asymmetric, with cooling in parts of the continent and warming along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). The Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) is a circumpolar meso-predator exposed to the full range of Antarctic climate and is undergoing dramatic population shifts coincident with climate change. We used true presence-absence data on Adélie penguin breeding colonies to estimate past and future changes in habitat suitability during the chick-rearing period based on historic satellite observations and future climate model projections. During the contemporary period, declining Adélie penguin populations experienced more years with warm sea surface temperature compared to populations that are increasing. Based on this relationship, we project that one-third of current Adélie penguin colonies, representing ~20% of their current population, may be in decline by 2060. However, climate model projections suggest refugia may exist in continental Antarctica beyond 2099, buffering species-wide declines. Climate change impacts on penguins in the Antarctic will likely be highly site specific based on regional climate trends, and a southward contraction in the range of Adélie penguins is likely over the next century.}, }
@article {pmid27350103, year = {2017}, author = {Vainio, A and Paloniemi, R and Varho, V}, title = {Weighing the Risks of Nuclear Energy and Climate Change: Trust in Different Information Sources, Perceived Risks, and Willingness to Pay for Alternatives to Nuclear Power.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {37}, number = {3}, pages = {557-569}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12640}, pmid = {27350103}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {We examined how individuals perceive nuclear energy in the context of climate change mitigation and how their perceptions are associated with trust in different risk information sources. We analyzed the interrelationships between trust, perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, perception of nuclear energy as an acceptable way to mitigate climate change, and willingness to pay (WTP) for alternatives to nuclear power. A nationwide survey (N = 967) collected in Finland was analyzed with structural equation modeling. The associations between trust and perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, and perception of nuclear power as a way to mitigate climate change varied by the type of information source. Political party support and other background variables were associated with trust in different information sources. The effect of trust in information sources on WTP was mediated by perceived risks and benefits. The results will increase our understanding of how individuals perceive nuclear energy as a way to cut CO2 emissions and the role of trust in different information sources in shaping nuclear risk perceptions and energy choices.}, }
@article {pmid27348125, year = {2016}, author = {Jordan, S and Giersch, JJ and Muhlfeld, CC and Hotaling, S and Fanning, L and Tappenbeck, TH and Luikart, G}, title = {Loss of Genetic Diversity and Increased Subdivision in an Endemic Alpine Stonefly Threatened by Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {e0157386}, pmid = {27348125}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Gene Flow ; Insecta/*genetics ; Montana ; *Polymorphism, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Much remains unknown about the genetic status and population connectivity of high-elevation and high-latitude freshwater invertebrates, which often persist near snow and ice masses that are disappearing due to climate change. Here we report on the conservation genetics of the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana (Ricker) of Montana, USA, a cold-water obligate species. We sequenced 1530 bp of mtDNA from 116 L. tumana individuals representing "historic" (>10 yr old) and 2010 populations. The dominant haplotype was common in both time periods, while the second-most-common haplotype was found only in historic samples, having been lost in the interim. The 2010 populations also showed reduced gene and nucleotide diversity and increased genetic isolation. We found lower genetic diversity in L. tumana compared to two other North American stonefly species, Amphinemura linda (Ricker) and Pteronarcys californica Newport. Our results imply small effective sizes, increased fragmentation, limited gene flow, and loss of genetic variation among contemporary L. tumana populations, which can lead to reduced adaptive capacity and increased extinction risk. This study reinforces concerns that ongoing glacier loss threatens the persistence of L. tumana, and provides baseline data and analysis of how future environmental change could impact populations of similar organisms.}, }
@article {pmid27346847, year = {2017}, author = {Shah, P and Mallory, ML and Ando, AW and Guntenspergen, GR}, title = {Fine-resolution conservation planning with limited climate-change information.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {278-289}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12793}, pmid = {27346847}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Central America ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forecasting ; Humans ; North America ; }, abstract = {Climate-change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation-related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation-planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk-diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate-change scenarios for carrying out fine-resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk-return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate-change information and full climate-change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate-change forecasts such that the best possible risk-return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate-change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches.}, }
@article {pmid27344409, year = {2016}, author = {Wagner, H and Fanesi, A and Wilhelm, C}, title = {Title: Freshwater phytoplankton responses to global warming.}, journal = {Journal of plant physiology}, volume = {203}, number = {}, pages = {127-134}, doi = {10.1016/j.jplph.2016.05.018}, pmid = {27344409}, issn = {1618-1328}, mesh = {Acclimatization/physiology ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Fresh Water ; *Global Warming ; Phytoplankton/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming alters species composition and function of freshwater ecosystems. However, the impact of temperature on primary productivity is not sufficiently understood and water quality models need to be improved in order to assess the quantitative and qualitative changes of aquatic communities. On the basis of experimental data, we demonstrate that the commonly used photosynthetic and water chemistry parameters alone are not sufficient for modeling phytoplankton growth under changing temperature regimes. We present some new aspects of the acclimation process with respect to temperature and how contrasting responses may be explained by a more complete physiological knowledge of the energy flow from photons to new biomass. We further suggest including additional bio-markers/traits for algal growth such as carbon allocation patterns to increase the explanatory power of such models. Although carbon allocation patterns are promising and functional cellular traits for growth prediction under different nutrient and light conditions, their predictive power still waits to be tested with respect to temperature. A great challenge for the near future will be the prediction of primary production efficiencies under the global change scenario using a uniform model for phytoplankton assemblages.}, }
@article {pmid27339968, year = {2016}, author = {Stott, P}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. How climate change affects extreme weather events.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {352}, number = {6293}, pages = {1517-1518}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaf7271}, pmid = {27339968}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Extreme Cold ; Extreme Heat ; Human Activities ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid27339855, year = {2016}, author = {Verner, G and Schütte, S and Knop, J and Sankoh, O and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Health in climate change research from 1990 to 2014: positive trend, but still underperforming.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {30723}, pmid = {27339855}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has been recognized as both one of the biggest threats and the biggest opportunities for global health in the 21st century. This trend review seeks to assess and characterize the amount and type of scientific literature on the link between climate change and human health.<br><br>DESIGN: We tracked the use of climate-related terms and their co-occurrence with health terms during the 25 years since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, from 1990 to 2014, in two scientific databases and in the IPCC reports. We investigated the trends in the number of publications about health and climate change through time, by nature of the health impact under study, and by geographic area. We compared the scientific production in the health field with that of other sectors on which climate change has an impact.<br><br>RESULTS: The number of publications was extremely low in both databases from 1990 (325 and 1,004, respectively) until around 2006 (1,332 and 4,319, respectively), which has since then increased exponentially in recent years (6,079 and 17,395, respectively, in 2014). However, the number of climate change papers regarding health is still about half that of other sectors. Certain health impacts, particularly malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), remain substantially understudied. Approximately two-thirds of all published studies were carried out in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), predominantly in Europe and North America.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is a clear need for further research on the links between climate change and health. This pertains particularly to research in and by those countries in which health will be mostly affected and capacity to adapt is least. Specific undertreated topics such as NCDs, malnutrition, and mental health should gain the priority they deserve. Funding agencies are invited to take note of and establish calls for proposals accordingly. Raising the interest in this research area in young scientists remains a challenge and should lead to innovative courses for large audiences, such as Massive Open Online Courses.}, }
@article {pmid27337304, year = {2016}, author = {Watson, J}, title = {Bring climate change back from the future.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {534}, number = {7608}, pages = {437}, doi = {10.1038/534437a}, pmid = {27337304}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disasters/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Environmental Policy ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Marsupialia ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid27334776, year = {2016}, author = {D'Amato, G and Pawankar, R and Vitale, C and Lanza, M and Molino, A and Stanziola, A and Sanduzzi, A and Vatrella, A and D'Amato, M}, title = {Climate Change and Air Pollution: Effects on Respiratory Allergy.}, journal = {Allergy, asthma &amp; immunology research}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {391-395}, pmid = {27334776}, issn = {2092-7355}, abstract = {A body of evidence suggests that major changes involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by anthropogenic factors, have impact on the biosphere and human environment. Studies on the effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between allergic respiratory diseases, asthma and environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, airborne allergens, and air pollution. Urbanization with its high levels of vehicle emissions, and a westernized lifestyle are linked to the rising frequency of respiratory allergic diseases and bronchial asthma observed over recent decades in most industrialized countries. However, it is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate changes and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in the general population and on the timing of asthma exacerbations, although the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity could also be an effect of air pollution and climate change. Since airborne allergens and air pollutants are frequently increased contemporaneously in the atmosphere, an enhanced IgE-mediated response to aeroallergens and enhanced airway inflammation could account for the increasing frequency of respiratory allergy and asthma in atopic subjects in the last 5 decades. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the relationship between air pollution and respiratory allergic diseases, such as rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions, and westernized lifestyle are correlated with an increased frequency of respiratory allergy prevalently in people who live in urban areas in comparison with people living in rural areas. Climatic factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, thunderstorms, etc.) can affect both components (biological and chemical) of this interaction.}, }
@article {pmid27333676, year = {2016}, author = {Stagg, K and Choucair, B}, title = {Climate Change As a Critical Health Issue.}, journal = {Health progress (Saint Louis, Mo.)}, volume = {97}, number = {3}, pages = {4-7}, pmid = {27333676}, issn = {0882-1577}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Impact Assessment ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid27330557, year = {2016}, author = {Tran, TT and Janssens, L and Dinh, KV and Op de Beeck, L and Stoks, R}, title = {Evolution determines how global warming and pesticide exposure will shape predator-prey interactions with vector mosquitoes.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {818-830}, pmid = {27330557}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {How evolution may mitigate the effects of global warming and pesticide exposure on predator-prey interactions is directly relevant for vector control. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we addressed how 4°C warming and exposure to the pesticide endosulfan shape the predation on Culex pipiens mosquitoes by damselfly predators from replicated low- and high-latitude populations. Although warming was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates on these prey. Possibly, under warming escape speeds of the mosquitoes increased more than the attack efficiency of the predators. Endosulfan imposed mortality and induced behavioral changes (including increased filtering and thrashing and a positional shift away from the bottom) in mosquito larvae. Although the pesticide was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates by the low-latitude predators. This can be explained by the combination of the evolution of a faster life history and associated higher vulnerabilities to the pesticide (in terms of growth rate and lowered foraging activity) in the low-latitude predators and pesticide-induced survival selection in the mosquitoes. Our results suggest that predation rates on mosquitoes at the high latitude will be reduced under warming unless predators evolve toward the current low-latitude phenotype or low-latitude predators move poleward.}, }
@article {pmid27329325, year = {2017}, author = {Sofia, G and Emma, T and Veronica, T and Giuseppe, F}, title = {Climate change: consequences on the pollination of grasses in Perugia (Central Italy). A 33-year-long study.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {61}, number = {1}, pages = {149-158}, pmid = {27329325}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Italy ; Poaceae/*physiology ; Pollen ; *Pollination ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Many works carried out in the last decades have shown that the pollen season for taxa flowering in winter and spring, in temperate regions, has tended to be earlier, probably due to the continuous rise in temperature. The mean annual temperature in Perugia, Central Italy, was about 0.5 °C higher in the last three decades compared with that registered from 1952 to 1981. The increase of temperature took place mainly in winter and spring, while no significant variation was recorded during the summer and autumn. This scenario shows variations in the timing and behavior of flowering of many spontaneous plants such as grasses, whose phenology is strongly influenced by air temperature. This work reports fluctuations in the airborne grass pollen presence in Perugia over a 33-year period (1982-2014), in order to study the influence of the warming registered in recent years on the behavior of pollen release of this taxon. The grass pollen season in Perugia typically lasts from the beginning of May to late July. The start dates showed a marked trend to an earlier beginning of the season (-0.4 day/year), as well as a strong correlation with the average temperatures of March and April. The peak is reached around 30th May, but the annual pollen index (API) is following a decreasing trend. The correlation between starting dates and spring temperatures could be interesting for the constitution of a forecasting model capable of predicting the presence of airborne grass pollen, helping to plan therapies for allergic people.}, }
@article {pmid27328743, year = {2017}, author = {da Silva, RS and Kumar, L and Shabani, F and Picanço, MC}, title = {Potential risk levels of invasive Neoleucinodes elegantalis (small tomato borer) in areas optimal for open-field Solanum lycopersicum (tomato) cultivation in the present and under predicted climate change.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {73}, number = {3}, pages = {616-627}, doi = {10.1002/ps.4344}, pmid = {27328743}, issn = {1526-4998}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Food Chain ; Larva/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Solanum lycopersicum/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Moths/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Neoleucinodes elegantalis is one of the major insect pests of Solanum lycopersicum. Currently, N. elegantalis is present only in America and the Caribbean, and is a threat in the world's largest S. lycopersicum-producing countries. In terms of potential impact on agriculture, the impact of climate change on insect invasions must be a concern. At present, no research exists regarding the effects of climatic change on the risk level of N. elegantalis. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for S. lycopersicum and N. elegantalis, utilizing CLIMEX to determine risk levels of N. elegantalis in open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation in the present and under projected climate change, using the global climate model CSIRO-Mk3.0.<br><br>RESULTS: Large areas are projected to be suitable for N. elegantalis and optimal for open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation at the present time. However, in the future these areas will become unsuitable for both species. Conversely, other regions in the future may become optimal for open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation, with a varying risk level for N. elegantalis.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The risk level results presented here provide a useful tool to design strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of N. elegantalis in open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation. &#xa9; 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid27326373, year = {2016}, author = {Wang, C and Liu, C and Wan, J and Zhang, Z}, title = {Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {e2091}, pmid = {27326373}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves.}, }
@article {pmid27324415, year = {2016}, author = {Filgueira, R and Guyondet, T and Comeau, LA and Tremblay, R}, title = {Bivalve aquaculture-environment interactions in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {12}, pages = {3901-3913}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13346}, pmid = {27324415}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aquaculture ; Bays ; *Bivalvia ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Estuaries ; }, abstract = {Coastal embayments are at risk of impacts by climate change drivers such as ocean warming, sea level rise and alteration in precipitation regimes. The response of the ecosystem to these drivers is highly dependent on their magnitude of change, but also on physical characteristics such as bay morphology and river discharge, which play key roles in water residence time and hence estuarine functioning. These considerations are especially relevant for bivalve aquaculture sites, where the cultured biomass can alter ecosystem dynamics. The combination of climate change, physical and aquaculture drivers can result in synergistic/antagonistic and nonlinear processes. A spatially explicit model was constructed to explore effects of the physical environment (bay geomorphic type, freshwater inputs), climate change drivers (sea level, temperature, precipitation) and aquaculture (bivalve species, stock) on ecosystem functioning. A factorial design led to 336 scenarios (48 hydrodynamic × 7 management). Model outcomes suggest that the physical environment controls estuarine functioning given its influence on primary productivity (bottom-up control dominated by riverine nutrients) and horizontal advection with the open ocean (dominated by bay geomorphic type). The intensity of bivalve aquaculture ultimately determines the bivalve-phytoplankton trophic interaction, which can range from a bottom-up control triggered by ammonia excretion to a top-down control via feeding. Results also suggest that temperature is the strongest climate change driver due to its influence on the metabolism of poikilothermic organisms (e.g. zooplankton and bivalves), which ultimately causes a concomitant increase of top-down pressure on phytoplankton. Given the different thermal tolerance of cultured species, temperature is also critical to sort winners from losers, benefiting Crassostrea virginica over Mytilus edulis under the specific conditions tested in this numerical exercise. In general, it is predicted that bays with large rivers and high exchange with the open ocean will be more resilient under climate change when bivalve aquaculture is present.}, }
@article {pmid27324146, year = {2016}, author = {Murdock, CC and Sternberg, ED and Thomas, MB}, title = {Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {27771}, pmid = {27324146}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {R01 AI110793/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; U19 AI089676/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01AI110793/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; U19AI089676/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Africa ; Animals ; Anopheles/growth &amp; development/*pathogenicity ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development/pathogenicity ; Malaria, Falciparum/*epidemiology/parasitology/transmission ; Plasmodium falciparum/growth &amp; development/*pathogenicity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Several studies suggest the potential for climate change to increase malaria incidence in cooler, marginal transmission environments. However, the effect of increasing temperature in warmer regions where conditions currently support endemic transmission has received less attention. We investigate how increases in temperature from optimal conditions (27 °C to 30 °C and 33 °C) interact with realistic diurnal temperature ranges (DTR: ± 0 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C) to affect the ability of key vector species from Africa and Asia (Anopheles gambiae and An. stephensi) to transmit the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. The effects of increasing temperature and DTR on parasite prevalence, parasite intensity, and mosquito mortality decreased overall vectorial capacity for both mosquito species. Increases of 3 °C from 27 °C reduced vectorial capacity by 51-89% depending on species and DTR, with increases in DTR alone potentially halving transmission. At 33 °C, transmission potential was further reduced for An. stephensi and blocked completely in An. gambiae. These results suggest that small shifts in temperature could play a substantial role in malaria transmission dynamics, yet few empirical or modeling studies consider such effects. They further suggest that rather than increase risk, current and future warming could reduce transmission potential in existing high transmission settings.}, }
@article {pmid27323709, year = {2017}, author = {Perera, FP}, title = {Multiple Threats to Child Health from Fossil Fuel Combustion: Impacts of Air Pollution and Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {125}, number = {2}, pages = {141-148}, pmid = {27323709}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Child Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Approaches to estimating and addressing the risk to children from fossil fuel combustion have been fragmented, tending to focus either on the toxic air emissions or on climate change. Yet developing children, and especially poor children, now bear a disproportionate burden of disease from both environmental pollution and climate change due to fossil fuel combustion.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This commentary summarizes the robust scientific evidence regarding the multiple current and projected health impacts of fossil fuel combustion on the young to make the case for a holistic, child-centered energy and climate policy that addresses the full array of physical and psychosocial stressors resulting from fossil fuel pollution.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The data summarized here show that by sharply reducing our dependence on fossil fuels we would achieve highly significant health and economic benefits for our children and their future. These benefits would occur immediately and also play out over the life course and potentially across generations.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Going beyond the powerful scientific and economic arguments for urgent action to reduce the burning of fossil fuels is the strong moral imperative to protect our most vulnerable populations. Citation: Perera FP. 2017. Multiple threats to child health from fossil fuel combustion: impacts of air pollution and climate change. Environ Health Perspect 125:141-148;&#x2002;http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP299.}, }
@article {pmid27322480, year = {2016}, author = {Liu-Helmersson, J and Quam, M and Wilder-Smith, A and Stenlund, H and Ebi, K and Massad, E and Rocklöv, J}, title = {Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe.}, journal = {EBioMedicine}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {267-277}, pmid = {27322480}, issn = {2352-3964}, mesh = {Aedes/*physiology/virology ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Dengue/history/*transmission ; *Epidemics ; Europe/epidemiology ; History, 20th Century ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901-2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence-if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid27322185, year = {2016}, author = {Takemoto, K and Kajihara, K}, title = {Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {e0157929}, pmid = {27322185}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Pollination/physiology ; Seed Dispersal ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.}, }
@article {pmid27317885, year = {2016}, author = {Massatti, R and Knowles, LL}, title = {Contrasting support for alternative models of genomic variation based on microhabitat preference: species-specific effects of climate change in alpine sedges.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {16}, pages = {3974-3986}, doi = {10.1111/mec.13735}, pmid = {27317885}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; Carex Plant/classification/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; Colorado ; *Ecosystem ; *Genetics, Population ; Genomics ; Ice Cover ; *Models, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Deterministic processes may uniquely affect codistributed species' phylogeographic patterns such that discordant genetic variation among taxa is predicted. Yet, explicitly testing expectations of genomic discordance in a statistical framework remains challenging. Here, we construct spatially and temporally dynamic models to investigate the hypothesized effect of microhabitat preferences on the permeability of glaciated regions to gene flow in two closely related montane species. Utilizing environmental niche models from the Last Glacial Maximum and the present to inform demographic models of changes in habitat suitability over time, we evaluate the relative probabilities of two alternative models using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) in which glaciated regions are either (i) permeable or (ii) a barrier to gene flow. Results based on the fit of the empirical data to data sets simulated using a spatially explicit coalescent under alternative models indicate that genomic data are consistent with predictions about the hypothesized role of microhabitat in generating discordant patterns of genetic variation among the taxa. Specifically, a model in which glaciated areas acted as a barrier was much more probable based on patterns of genomic variation in Carex nova, a wet-adapted species. However, in the dry-adapted Carex chalciolepis, the permeable model was more probable, although the difference in the support of the models was small. This work highlights how statistical inferences can be used to distinguish deterministic processes that are expected to result in discordant genomic patterns among species, including species-specific responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27317136, year = {2016}, author = {Rafael, S and Martins, H and Sá, E and Carvalho, D and Borrego, C and Lopes, M}, title = {Influence of urban resilience measures in the magnitude and behaviour of energy fluxes in the city of Porto (Portugal) under a climate change scenario.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {566-567}, number = {}, pages = {1500-1510}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.037}, pmid = {27317136}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Different urban resilience measures, such as the increase of urban green areas and the application of white roofs, were evaluated with the WRF-SUEWS modelling system. The case study consists of five heat waves occurring in Porto (Portugal) urban area in a future climate scenario. Meteorological forcing and boundary data were downscaled for Porto urban area from the CMIP5 earth system model MPI-ESM, for the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. The influence of different resilience measures on the energy balance components was quantified and compared between each other. Results show that the inclusion of green urban areas increases the evaporation and the availability of surface moisture, redirecting the energy to the form of latent heat flux (maximum increase of +200Wm(-2)) rather than to sensible heat. The application of white roofs increases the solar radiation reflection, due to the higher albedo of such surfaces, reducing both sensible and storage heat flux (maximum reductions of -62.8 and -35Wm(-2), respectively). The conjugations of the individual benefits related to each resilience measure shows that this measure is the most effective one in terms of improving the thermal comfort of the urban population, particularly due to the reduction of both sensible and storage heat flux. The obtained results contribute to the knowledge of the surface-atmosphere exchanges and can be of great importance for stakeholders and decision-makers.}, }
@article {pmid27305265, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {Nurses must speak louder on climate change.}, journal = {Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987)}, volume = {30}, number = {42}, pages = {66}, doi = {10.7748/ns.30.42.66.s52}, pmid = {27305265}, issn = {2047-9018}, abstract = {Could nurses use their political influence more effectively? From social media to tweeting, why do nurses stay quiet when they could harness their political power? Writing in Primary Health Care, professor of nursing Mary Chiarella argues that nurses, considered one of the most ethical groups of voters, have influence to speak out about the dangers of global warming on people's health. Ms Chiarella encourages nurses to engage professionally to save the planet.}, }
@article {pmid27304924, year = {2016}, author = {Dangles, O and Loirat, J and Freour, C and Serre, S and Vacher, J and Le Roux, X}, title = {Research on Biodiversity and Climate Change at a Distance: Collaboration Networks between Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {e0157441}, pmid = {27304924}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Caribbean Region ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *Cooperative Behavior ; European Union ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Latin America ; Research/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Research Personnel/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Biodiversity loss and climate change are both globally significant issues that must be addressed through collaboration across countries and disciplines. With the December 2015 COP21 climate conference in Paris and the recent creation of the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), it has become critical to evaluate the capacity for global research networks to develop at the interface between biodiversity and climate change. In the context of the European Union (EU) strategy to stand as a world leader in tackling global challenges, the European Commission has promoted ties between the EU and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in science, technology and innovation. However, it is not clear how these significant interactions impact scientific cooperation at the interface of biodiversity and climate change. We looked at research collaborations between two major regions-the European Research Area (ERA) and LAC-that addressed both biodiversity and climate change. We analysed the temporal evolution of these collaborations, whether they were led by ERA or LAC teams, and which research domains they covered. We surveyed publications listed on the Web of Science that were authored by researchers from both the ERA and LAC and that were published between 2003 and 2013. We also run similar analyses on other topics and other continents to provide baseline comparisons. Our results revealed a steady increase in scientific co-authorships between ERA and LAC countries as a result of the increasingly complex web of relationships that has been weaved among scientists from the two regions. The ERA-LAC co-authorship increase for biodiversity and climate change was higher than those reported for other topics and for collaboration with other continents. We also found strong differences in international collaboration patterns within the LAC: co-publications were fewest from researchers in low- and lower-middle-income countries and most prevalent from researchers in emerging countries like Mexico and Brazil. Overall, interdisciplinary publications represented 25.8% of all publications at the interface of biodiversity and climate change in the ERA-LAC network. Further scientific collaborations should be promoted 1) to prevent less developed countries from being isolated from the global cooperation network, 2) to ensure that scientists from these countries are trained to lead visible and recognized biodiversity and climate change research, and 3) to develop common study models that better integrate multiple scientific disciplines and better support decision-making.}, }
@article {pmid27300561, year = {2016}, author = {Du, Y and Zhang, Y and Chen, F and Chang, Y and Liu, Z}, title = {Photochemical reactivities of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in a sub-alpine lake revealed by EEM-PARAFAC: An insight into the fate of allochthonous DOM in alpine lakes affected by climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {568}, number = {}, pages = {216-225}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.036}, pmid = {27300561}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Due to climate change, tree line advance is occurring in many alpine regions. Within the next 50 to 100years, alpine lake catchments are expected to develop increased vegetation cover similar to that of sub-alpine lake catchments which currently exist below the tree line. Such changes in vegetation could trigger increased allochthonous DOM inputs to alpine lakes. To understand the fate of allochthonous DOM in alpine lakes impacted by climate change, the photochemical reactivity of DOM in sub-alpine Lake Tiancai (located 200m below the tree line) was investigated by excitation emission matrix fluorescence combined with parallel factor analysis (EEM-PARAFAC) and UV-Vis spectra analysis. With photo-exposure, a decrease in apparent DOM molecular weight was observed and 32% DOM was photomineralized to CO2. Interestingly, the aromaticity of DOM increased after photodegradation, as evidenced by increases in both the specific UV absorbance at 254nm (SUVA254) and the humification index (HIX). Five EEM-PARAFAC components were identified, including four terrestrially-derived substances (C1, C2, C3 and C4; allochthonous) and one tryptophan-like substance (C5; autochthonous). Generally, allochthonous DOM represented by C2 and C3 exhibited greater photoreactivity than autochthonous DOM represented by C5. C4 was identified as a possible photoproduct with relatively high aromaticity and photorefractive tendencies and contributed to the observed increase in SUVA254 and HIX. UV light facilitated the photodegradation of DOM and had the greatest effect on the removal of C3. This study provides information on the transformation of EEM-PARAFAC components in a sub-alpine lake, which is important in understanding the fate of increased allochthonous DOM inputs to alpine lakes impacted by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27300144, year = {2016}, author = {Mirsaeidi, M and Motahari, H and Taghizadeh Khamesi, M and Sharifi, A and Campos, M and Schraufnagel, DE}, title = {Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {1223-1230}, doi = {10.1513/AnnalsATS.201511-729PS}, pmid = {27300144}, issn = {2325-6621}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Respiratory Tract Infections/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future.}, }
@article {pmid27296386, year = {2016}, author = {Kreslake, JM and Sarfaty, M and Maibach, EW}, title = {Documenting the Human Health Impacts of Climate Change in Tropical and Subtropical Regions.}, journal = {The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene}, volume = {95}, number = {2}, pages = {260-262}, pmid = {27296386}, issn = {1476-1645}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Documentation ; Humans ; *Tropical Medicine ; }, }
@article {pmid27293118, year = {2016}, author = {Iyengar, SV and Balakrishnan, J and Kurths, J}, title = {Impact of climate change on larch budmoth cyclic outbreaks.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {27845}, pmid = {27293118}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Moths/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Periodic outbreaks of the larch budmoth Zeiraphera diniana population (and the massive forest defoliation they engender) have been recorded in the Alps over the centuries and are known for their remarkable regularity. But these have been conspicuously absent since 1981. On the other hand, budmoth outbreaks have been historically unknown in the larches of the Carpathian Tatra mountains. To resolve this puzzle, we propose here a model which includes the influence of climate and explains both the 8-9 year periodicity in the budmoth cycle and the variations from this, as well as the absence of cycles. We successfully capture the observed trend of relative frequencies of outbreaks, reproducing the dominant periodicities seen. We contend that the apparent collapse of the cycle in 1981 is due to changing climatic conditions following a tipping point and propose the recurrence of the cycle with a changed periodicity of 40 years - the next outbreak could occur in 2021. Our model also predicts longer cycles.}, }
@article {pmid27284184, year = {2016}, author = {Magnan, AK and Ribera, T}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. Global adaptation after Paris.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {352}, number = {6291}, pages = {1280-1282}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaf5002}, pmid = {27284184}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid27283941, year = {2016}, author = {Hunter, P}, title = {The potential of molecular biology and biotechnology for dealing with global warming: The biosciences will have to play a leading role in developing new technologies for mitigating the impact of greenhouse gas emissions.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {17}, number = {7}, pages = {946-948}, pmid = {27283941}, issn = {1469-3178}, mesh = {Biotechnology/*methods ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Carbon Monoxide/analysis ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Gases/*analysis ; Molecular Biology/*methods ; Photosynthesis ; Plants/metabolism ; Solar Energy ; }, abstract = {Dealing with the effects of climate change and keeping the level of atmospheric CO2 in check will require considerable efforts by molecular biology and biotechnology. New technologies for energy conversion and plant varieties to cope with a warming climate might help to limit the increase of global temperatures. [Image: see text]}, }
@article {pmid27283832, year = {2016}, author = {Wang, J and Sun, L and Chen, L and Xu, L and Wang, Y and Wang, X}, title = {The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {27723}, pmid = {27283832}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Biomarkers/analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Culture ; Geography ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; *Internationality ; Rivers ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050-4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400-4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions.}, }
@article {pmid27283495, year = {2016}, author = {Johnson, RJ and Stenvinkel, P and Jensen, T and Lanaspa, MA and Roncal, C and Song, Z and Bankir, L and Sánchez-Lozada, LG}, title = {Metabolic and Kidney Diseases in the Setting of Climate Change, Water Shortage, and Survival Factors.}, journal = {Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {2247-2256}, pmid = {27283495}, issn = {1533-3450}, support = {K01 DK095930/DK/NIDDK NIH HHS/United States ; R01 DK108408/DK/NIDDK NIH HHS/United States ; T32 DK007446/DK/NIDDK NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Dehydration/complications/metabolism ; Fructose/metabolism ; Humans ; Kidney Diseases/complications/epidemiology/*etiology/metabolism ; Metabolic Diseases/complications/epidemiology/*etiology/metabolism ; *Survival ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change (global warming) is leading to an increase in heat extremes and coupled with increasing water shortage, provides a perfect storm for a new era of environmental crises and potentially, new diseases. We use a comparative physiologic approach to show that one of the primary mechanisms by which animals protect themselves against water shortage is to increase fat mass as a means for providing metabolic water. Strong evidence suggests that certain hormones (vasopressin), foods (fructose), and metabolic products (uric acid) function as survival signals to help reduce water loss and store fat (which also provides a source of metabolic water). These mechanisms are intricately linked with each other and stimulated by dehydration and hyperosmolarity. Although these mechanisms were protective in the setting of low sugar and low salt intake in our past, today, the combination of diets high in fructose and salty foods, increasing temperatures, and decreasing available water places these survival signals in overdrive and may be accelerating the obesity and diabetes epidemics. The recent discovery of multiple epidemics of CKD occurring in agricultural workers in hot and humid environments may represent harbingers of the detrimental consequences of the combination of climate change and overactivation of survival pathways.}, }
@article {pmid27280629, year = {2016}, author = {Ba, K and Thiaw, M and Lazar, N and Sarr, A and Brochier, T and Ndiaye, I and Faye, A and Sadio, O and Panfili, J and Thiaw, OT and Brehmer, P}, title = {Resilience of Key Biological Parameters of the Senegalese Flat Sardinella to Overfishing and Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {e0156143}, pmid = {27280629}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fisheries ; Fishes/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Senegal ; Sex Ratio ; }, abstract = {The stock of the Senegalese flat sardinella, Sardinella maderensis, is highly exploited in Senegal, West Africa. Its growth and reproduction parameters are key biological indicators for improving fisheries management. This study reviewed these parameters using landing data from small-scale fisheries in Senegal and literature information dated back more than 25 years. Age was estimated using length-frequency data to calculate growth parameters and assess the growth performance index. With global climate change there has been an increase in the average sea surface temperature along the Senegalese coast but the length-weight parameters, sex ratio, size at first sexual maturity, period of reproduction and condition factor of S. maderensis have not changed significantly. The above parameters of S. maderensis have hardly changed, despite high exploitation and fluctuations in environmental conditions that affect the early development phases of small pelagic fish in West Africa. This lack of plasticity of the species regarding of the biological parameters studied should be considered when planning relevant fishery management plans.}, }
@article {pmid27273300, year = {2017}, author = {Green, DM}, title = {Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {646-656}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13390}, pmid = {27273300}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Breeding ; *Bufonidae ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals' prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads' eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late-breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long-term phenological trends.}, }
@article {pmid27269723, year = {2016}, author = {Motani, R}, title = {Palaeobiology: Born and Gone in Global Warming.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {R466-8}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2016.04.014}, pmid = {27269723}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Global Warming ; Reptiles ; }, abstract = {Why ichthyosaurs - marine Mesozoic reptiles - disappeared before the dinosaur extinction has remained a mystery. New research suggests they may have gone extinct stepwise, during one of the most extreme greenhouse periods in the history of complex life-forms.}, }
@article {pmid27266520, year = {2016}, author = {Tomaszkiewicz, M and Abou Najm, M and Beysens, D and Alameddine, I and Bou Zeid, E and El-Fadel, M}, title = {Projected climate change impacts upon dew yield in the Mediterranean basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {566-567}, number = {}, pages = {1339-1348}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.195}, pmid = {27266520}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water scarcity is increasingly raising the need for non-conventional water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. In this context, atmospheric moisture can potentially be harvested in the form of dew, which is commonly disregarded from the water budget, although its impact may be significant when compared to rainfall during the dry season. In this study, a dew atlas for the Mediterranean region is presented illustrating dew yields using the yield data collected for the 2013 dry season. The results indicate that cumulative monthly dew yield in the region can exceed 2.8mm at the end of the dry season and 1.5mm during the driest months, compared to <1mm of rainfall during the same period in some areas. Dew yields were compared with potential evapotranspiration (PET) and actual evapotranspiration (ET) during summer months thus highlighting the role of dew to many native plants in the region. Furthermore, forecasted trends in temperature and relative humidity were used to estimate dew yields under future climatic scenarios. The results showed a 27% decline in dew yield during the critical summer months at the end of the century (2080).}, }
@article {pmid27266257, year = {2016}, author = {Bartosiewicz, M and Laurion, I and Clayer, F and Maranger, R}, title = {Heat-Wave Effects on Oxygen, Nutrients, and Phytoplankton Can Alter Global Warming Potential of Gases Emitted from a Small Shallow Lake.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {50}, number = {12}, pages = {6267-6275}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.5b06312}, pmid = {27266257}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Gases ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature ; *Lakes ; Methane ; *Oxygen ; Phytoplankton ; }, abstract = {Increasing air temperatures may result in stronger lake stratification, potentially altering nutrient and biogenic gas cycling. We assessed the impact of climate forcing by comparing the influence of stratification on oxygen, nutrients, and global-warming potential (GWP) of greenhouse gases (the sum of CH4, CO2, and N2O in CO2 equivalents) emitted from a shallow productive lake during an average versus a heat-wave year. Strong stratification during the heat wave was accompanied by an algal bloom and chemically enhanced carbon uptake. Solar energy trapped at the surface created a colder, isolated hypolimnion, resulting in lower ebullition and overall lower GWP during the hotter-than-average year. Furthermore, the dominant CH4 emission pathway shifted from ebullition to diffusion, with CH4 being produced at surprisingly high rates from sediments (1.2-4.1 mmol m(-2) d(-1)). Accumulated gases trapped in the hypolimnion during the heat wave resulted in a peak efflux to the atmosphere during fall overturn when 70% of total emissions were released, with littoral zones acting as a hot spot. The impact of climate warming on the GWP of shallow lakes is a more complex interplay of phytoplankton dynamics, emission pathways, thermal structure, and chemical conditions, as well as seasonal and spatial variability, than previously reported.}, }
@article {pmid27263100, year = {2016}, author = {Susaeta, A and Adams, DC and Carter, DR and Dwivedi, P}, title = {Climate Change and Ecosystem Services Output Efficiency in Southern Loblolly Pine Forests.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {58}, number = {3}, pages = {417-430}, pmid = {27263100}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Florida ; *Forests ; Pinus taeda/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Forests provide myriad ecosystem services that are vital to humanity. With climate change, we expect to see significant changes to forests that will alter the supply of these critical services and affect human well-being. To better understand the impacts of climate change on forest-based ecosystem services, we applied a data envelopment analysis method to assess plot-level efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services in Florida natural loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) forests. Using field data for n = 16 loblolly pine forest plots, including inputs such as site index, tree density, age, precipitation, and temperatures for each forest plot, we assessed the relative plot-level production of three ecosystem services: timber, carbon sequestered, and species richness. The results suggested that loblolly pine forests in Florida were largely inefficient in the provision of these ecosystem services under current climatic conditions. Climate change had a small negative impact on the loblolly pine forests efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services. In this context, we discussed the reduction of tree density that may not improve ecosystem services production.}, }
@article {pmid27260548, year = {2016}, author = {Ogden, NH and Lindsay, LR}, title = {Effects of Climate and Climate Change on Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases: Ticks Are Different.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {32}, number = {8}, pages = {646-656}, doi = {10.1016/j.pt.2016.04.015}, pmid = {27260548}, issn = {1471-5007}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*physiology ; Reproduction/physiology ; Tick-Borne Diseases/parasitology ; Ticks/*physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {There has been considerable debate as to whether global risk from vector-borne diseases will be impacted by climate change. This has focussed on important mosquito-borne diseases that are transmitted by the vectors from infected to uninfected humans. However, this debate has mostly ignored the biological diversity of vectors and vector-borne diseases. Here, we review how climate and climate change may impact those most divergent of arthropod disease vector groups: multivoltine insects and hard-bodied (ixodid) ticks. We contrast features of the life cycles and behaviour of these arthropods, and how weather, climate, and climate change may have very different impacts on the spatiotemporal occurrence and abundance of vectors, and the pathogens they transmit.}, }
@article {pmid27259038, year = {2016}, author = {Kipling, RP and Virkajärvi, P and Breitsameter, L and Curnel, Y and De Swaef, T and Gustavsson, AM and Hennart, S and Höglind, M and Järvenranta, K and Minet, J and Nendel, C and Persson, T and Picon-Cochard, C and Rolinski, S and Sandars, DL and Scollan, ND and Sebek, L and Seddaiu, G and Topp, CFE and Twardy, S and Van Middelkoop, J and Wu, L and Bellocchi, G}, title = {Key challenges and priorities for modelling European grasslands under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {566-567}, number = {}, pages = {851-864}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.144}, pmid = {27259038}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27255627, year = {2016}, author = {de Leeuw, S}, title = {Beyond frozen ground: Climate change and health.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {424-427}, pmid = {27255627}, issn = {1715-5258}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Public Health/*standards ; }, }
@article {pmid27255005, year = {2016}, author = {Wilson, C}, title = {CUTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE.}, journal = {Australian nursing &amp; midwifery journal}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {47}, pmid = {27255005}, issn = {2202-7114}, mesh = {Australia ; Climate Change/*economics ; Environmental Policy/*economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid27254115, year = {2017}, author = {Nowakowski, AJ and Watling, JI and Whitfield, SM and Todd, BD and Kurz, DJ and Donnelly, MA}, title = {Tropical amphibians in shifting thermal landscapes under land-use and climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {96-105}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12769}, pmid = {27254115}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Costa Rica ; Ecosystem ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Land-cover and climate change are both expected to alter species distributions and contribute to future biodiversity loss. However, the combined effects of land-cover and climate change on assemblages, especially at the landscape scale, remain understudied. Lowland tropical amphibians may be particularly susceptible to changes in land cover and climate warming because many species have narrow thermal safety margins resulting from air and body temperatures that are close to their critical thermal maxima (CTmax). We examined how changing thermal landscapes may alter the area of thermally suitable habitat (TSH) for tropical amphibians. We measured microclimates in 6 land-cover types and CTmax of 16 frog species in lowland northeastern Costa Rica. We used a biophysical model to estimate core body temperatures of frogs exposed to habitat-specific microclimates while accounting for evaporative cooling and behavior. Thermally suitable habitat area was estimated as the portion of the landscape where species CTmax exceeded their habitat-specific maximum body temperatures. We projected changes in TSH area 80 years into the future as a function of land-cover change only, climate change only, and combinations of land-cover and climate-change scenarios representing low and moderate rates of change. Projected decreases in TSH area ranged from 16% under low emissions and reduced forest loss to 30% under moderate emissions and business-as-usual land-cover change. Under a moderate emissions scenario (A1B), climate change alone contributed to 1.7- to 4.5-fold greater losses in TSH area than land-cover change only, suggesting that future decreases in TSH from climate change may outpace structural habitat loss. Forest-restricted species had lower mean CTmax than species that occurred in altered habitats, indicating that thermal tolerances will likely shape assemblages in changing thermal landscapes. In the face of ongoing land-cover and climate change, it will be critical to consider changing thermal landscapes in strategies to conserve ectotherm species.}, }
@article {pmid27252930, year = {2016}, author = {Menhas, R and Umer, S and Shabbir, G}, title = {Climate Change and its Impact on Food and Nutrition Security in Pakistan.}, journal = {Iranian journal of public health}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {549-550}, pmid = {27252930}, issn = {2251-6085}, }
@article {pmid27252294, year = {2016}, author = {Hawkins, AJ and Stark, LA}, title = {Bringing Climate Change into the Life Science Classroom: Essentials, Impacts on Life, and Addressing Misconceptions.}, journal = {CBE life sciences education}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {}, pmid = {27252294}, issn = {1931-7913}, mesh = {Biological Science Disciplines/*education ; *Climate Change ; Databases as Topic ; Forestry ; Humans ; Internationality ; *Life ; *Schools ; Smartphone ; United States ; United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration ; }, abstract = {Most life science educators are unaware of the scientific consensus regarding climate change. This Feature highlights free online resources to teach climate change, including research summaries, materials about the life science impacts of climate change, and resources that address common misconceptions and “skeptical” arguments.}, }
@article {pmid27252225, year = {2016}, author = {Hall, RJ and Brown, LM and Altizer, S}, title = {Modeling vector-borne disease risk in migratory animals under climate change.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {56}, number = {2}, pages = {353-364}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icw049}, pmid = {27252225}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; *Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Models, Biological ; Risk ; }, abstract = {Recent theory suggests that animals that migrate to breed at higher latitudes may benefit from reduced pressure from natural enemies, including pathogens ("migratory escape"), and that migration itself weeds out infected individuals and lowers infection prevalence ("migratory culling"). The distribution and activity period of arthropod disease vectors in temperate regions is expected to respond rapidly to climate change, which could reduce the potential for migratory escape. However, climate change could have the opposite effect of reducing transmission if differential responses in the phenology and distribution of migrants and disease vectors reduce their overlap in space and time. Here we outline a simple modeling framework for exploring the influence of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics in a migratory host. We investigate two scenarios under which pathogen transmission dynamics might be mediated by climate change: (1) vectors respond more rapidly than migrants to advancing phenology at temperate breeding sites, causing peak susceptible host density and vector emergence to diverge ("migratory mismatch") and (2) reduced migratory propensity allows increased nonbreeding survival of infected hosts and larger breeding-site epidemics (loss of migratory culling, here referred to as "sedentary amplification"). Our results highlight the need for continued surveillance of climate-induced changes to migratory behavior and vector activity to predict pathogen prevalence and its impacts on migratory animals.}, }
@article {pmid27250039, year = {2017}, author = {Descamps, S and Aars, J and Fuglei, E and Kovacs, KM and Lydersen, C and Pavlova, O and Pedersen, &#xc5;&#xd8; and Ravolainen, V and Strøm, H}, title = {Climate change impacts on wildlife in a High Arctic archipelago - Svalbard, Norway.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {490-502}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13381}, pmid = {27250039}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Mammals ; North Sea ; Norway ; Population Dynamics ; Svalbard ; }, abstract = {The Arctic is warming more rapidly than other region on the planet, and the northern Barents Sea, including the Svalbard Archipelago, is experiencing the fastest temperature increases within the circumpolar Arctic, along with the highest rate of sea ice loss. These physical changes are affecting a broad array of resident Arctic organisms as well as some migrants that occupy the region seasonally. Herein, evidence of climate change impacts on terrestrial and marine wildlife in Svalbard is reviewed, with a focus on bird and mammal species. In the terrestrial ecosystem, increased winter air temperatures and concomitant increases in the frequency of 'rain-on-snow' events are one of the most important facets of climate change with respect to impacts on flora and fauna. Winter rain creates ice that blocks access to food for herbivores and synchronizes the population dynamics of the herbivore-predator guild. In the marine ecosystem, increases in sea temperature and reductions in sea ice are influencing the entire food web. These changes are affecting the foraging and breeding ecology of most marine birds and mammals and are associated with an increase in abundance of several temperate fish, seabird and marine mammal species. Our review indicates that even though a few species are benefiting from a warming climate, most Arctic endemic species in Svalbard are experiencing negative consequences induced by the warming environment. Our review emphasizes the tight relationships between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems in this High Arctic archipelago. Detecting changes in trophic relationships within and between these ecosystems requires long-term (multidecadal) demographic, population- and ecosystem-based monitoring, the results of which are necessary to set appropriate conservation priorities in relation to climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid27248830, year = {2016}, author = {Ihlow, F and Courant, J and Secondi, J and Herrel, A and Rebelo, R and Measey, GJ and Lillo, F and De Villiers, FA and Vogt, S and De Busschere, C and Backeljau, T and Rödder, D}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {e0154869}, pmid = {27248830}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; Models, Theoretical ; Xenopus laevis ; }, abstract = {By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.}, }
@article {pmid27245802, year = {2016}, author = {Domșa, C and Sándor, AD and Mihalca, AD}, title = {Climate change and species distribution: possible scenarios for thermophilic ticks in Romania.}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {421}, doi = {10.4081/gh.2016.421}, pmid = {27245802}, issn = {1970-7096}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; *Models, Theoretical ; Romania/epidemiology ; *Ticks ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Several zoonotic tick-borne diseases are emerging in Europe due to various factors, including changes of the cultural landscape, increasing human populations, variation of social habits and climate change. We have modelled the potential range changes for two thermophilic tick species (Hyalomma marginatum and Rhipicephalus annulatus) by use of MaxEnt® and 15 climatic predictors, taking into account the aptitude for future climatic change in Romania. Current models predict increased temperatures, both in the short term (up to 2050) and in the long term (up to 2070), together with possible changes also of the other climatic factors (e.g. precipitation), and may lead to higher zoonotic risks associated with an expansion of the range of the target species. Three different models were constructed (the present, 2050 and 2070) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gas scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. The most dramatic scenario (RCP8.5) produced the highest increase in the probable distribution range for both species. In concordance with similar continental-wide studies, both tick species displayed a shift of distribution towards previously cooler areas of Romania. In most scenarios, this would lead to wider ranges; from 9.7 to 43.1% for H. marginatum, and from 53.4 to 205.2% for R annulatus. Although the developed models demonstrate a good predictive power, the issue of species ecology should also be considered.}, }
@article {pmid27244725, year = {2017}, author = {Johansson, J and Opach, T and Glaas, E and Neset, TS and Navarra, C and Linner, BO and Rod, JK}, title = {VisAdapt: A Visualization Tool to Support Climate Change Adaptation.}, journal = {IEEE computer graphics and applications}, volume = {37}, number = {2}, pages = {54-65}, doi = {10.1109/MCG.2016.49}, pmid = {27244725}, issn = {1558-1756}, abstract = {The web-based visualization VisAdapt tool was developed to help laypeople in the Nordic countries assess how anticipated climate change will impact their homes. The tool guides users through a three-step visual process that helps them explore risks and identify adaptive actions specifically modified to their location and house type. This article walks through the tool's multistep, user-centered design process. Although VisAdapt's target end users are Nordic homeowners, the insights gained from the development process and the lessons learned from the project are applicable to a wide range of domains.}, }
@article {pmid27242814, year = {2016}, author = {Sterck, F and Anten, NP and Schieving, F and Zuidema, PA}, title = {Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {607}, pmid = {27242814}, issn = {1664-462X}, support = {242955/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and - the notoriously unknown - physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27241717, year = {2017}, author = {Hulme, PE}, title = {Climate change and biological invasions: evidence, expectations, and response options.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {92}, number = {3}, pages = {1297-1313}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12282}, pmid = {27241717}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Introduced Species ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {A changing climate may directly or indirectly influence biological invasions by altering the likelihood of introduction or establishment, as well as modifying the geographic range, environmental impacts, economic costs or management of alien species. A comprehensive assessment of empirical and theoretical evidence identified how each of these processes is likely to be shaped by climate change for alien plants, animals and pathogens in terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments of Great Britain. The strongest contemporary evidence for the potential role of climate change in the establishment of new alien species is for terrestrial arthropods, as a result of their ectothermic physiology, often high dispersal rate and their strong association with trade as well as commensal relationships with human environments. By contrast, there is little empirical support for higher temperatures increasing the rate of alien plant establishment due to the stronger effects of residence time and propagule pressure. The magnitude of any direct climate effect on the number of new alien species will be small relative to human-assisted introductions driven by socioeconomic factors. Casual alien species (sleepers) whose population persistence is limited by climate are expected to exhibit greater rates of establishment under climate change assuming that propagule pressure remains at least at current levels. Surveillance and management targeting sleeper pests and diseases may be the most cost-effective option to reduce future impacts under climate change. Most established alien species will increase their distribution range in Great Britain over the next century. However, such range increases are very likely be the result of natural expansion of populations that have yet to reach equilibrium with their environment, rather than a direct consequence of climate change. To assess the potential realised range of alien species will require a spatially explicit approach that not only integrates bioclimatic suitability and population-level demographic rates but also simulation of landscape-level processes (e.g. dispersal, land-use change, host/habitat distribution, non-climatic edaphic constraints). In terms of invasive alien species that have known economic or biodiversity impacts, the taxa that are likely to be the most responsive are plant pathogens and insect pests of agricultural crops. However, the extent to which climate adaptation strategies lead to new crops, altered rotations, and different farming practices (e.g. irrigation, fertilization) will all shape the potential agricultural impacts of alien species. The greatest uncertainty in the effects of climate change on biological invasions exists with identifying the future character of new species introductions and predicting ecosystem impacts. Two complementary strategies may work under these conditions of high uncertainty: (i) prioritise ecosystems in terms of their perceived vulnerability to climate change and prevent ingress or expansion of alien species therein that may exacerbate problems; (ii) target those ecosystem already threatened by alien species and implement management to prevent the situation deteriorating under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27240853, year = {2016}, author = {Jiang, C and Zhang, L}, title = {Effect of ecological restoration and climate change on ecosystems: a case study in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region, China.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {188}, number = {6}, pages = {382}, pmid = {27240853}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation/*methods ; Grassland ; Ice Cover/chemistry ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Soil/chemistry ; Wetlands ; Wind ; }, abstract = {The Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) is the headwater of the Yangtze River Basin (YARB), Yellow River Basin (YRB), and Lancang River Basin (LRB); it is known as China's 'Water Tower' owing to its important supply of freshwater. In order to assess ecosystem changes in the TRHR during 2000-2012, we systematically and comprehensively evaluated a combination of model simulation results and actual observational data. The results showed the following: (1) Ecosystem pattern was relatively stable during 2000-2010, with a slight decrease in farmland and desert areas, and a slight increase in grassland and wetland/water-body areas. (2) A warmer and wetter climate, and ecological engineering, caused the vegetation cover and productivity to significantly improve. (3) Precipitation was the main controlling factor for streamflow. A significant increase in precipitation during 2000-2012 resulted in an obvious increase in annual and seasonal streamflow. Glacier melting also contributed to the streamflow increase. (4) The total amount of soil conservation increased slightly from 2000 to 2012. The increase in precipitation caused rainfall erosivity to increase, which enhanced the intensity of soil erosion. The decrease in wind speed decreased wind erosion and the frequency of sandstorms. (5) The overall habitat quality in the TRHR was stable between 2000 and 2010, and the spatial pattern exhibited obvious heterogeneity. In some counties that included nature reserves, habitat quality was slightly higher in 2010 than in 2000, which reflected the effectiveness of the ecological restoration. Overall, the aforementioned ecosystem changes are the combined results of ecological restoration and climate change, and they are likely a local and temporary improvement, rather than a comprehensive and fundamental change. Therefore, more investments and efforts are needed to preserve natural ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid27238290, year = {2016}, author = {Brondízio, ES and de Lima, AC and Schramski, S and Adams, C}, title = {Social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon.}, journal = {Annals of human biology}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {405-414}, doi = {10.1080/03014460.2016.1193222}, pmid = {27238290}, issn = {1464-5033}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/etiology ; Environment ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Social Change ; }, abstract = {CONTEXT: The Amazon region has been part of climate change debates for decades, yet attention to its social and health dimensions has been limited.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This paper assesses literature on the social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon. A conceptual framework underscores multiple stresses and exposures created by interactions between climate change and local social-environmental conditions.<br><br>METHODS: Using the Thomson-Reuter Web of Science, this study bibliometrically assessed the overall literature on climate change in the Amazon, including Physical Sciences, Social Sciences, Anthropology, Environmental Science/Ecology and Public, Environmental/Occupational Health. From this assessment, a relevant sub-sample was selected and complemented with literature from the Brazilian database SciELO.<br><br>RESULTS: This sample discusses three dimensions of climate change impacts in the region: livelihood changes, vector-borne diseases and microbial proliferation, and respiratory diseases. This analysis elucidates imbalance and disconnect between ecological, physical and social and health dimensions of climate change and between continental and regional climate analysis, and sub-regional and local levels.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Work on the social and health implications of climate change in the Amazon falls significantly behind other research areas, limiting reliable information for analytical models and for Amazonian policy-makers and society at large. Collaborative research is called for.}, }
@article {pmid27231410, year = {2016}, author = {Jezkova, T and Jaeger, JR and Oláh-Hemmings, V and Jones, KB and Lara-Resendiz, RA and Mulcahy, DG and Riddle, BR}, title = {Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos).}, journal = {Ecography}, volume = {39}, number = {5}, pages = {437-448}, pmid = {27231410}, issn = {0906-7590}, support = {K12 GM000708/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions - niches - to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos), a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post-LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27229882, year = {2016}, author = {Üveges, B and Mahr, K and Szederkényi, M and Bókony, V and Hoi, H and Hettyey, A}, title = {Experimental evidence for beneficial effects of projected climate change on hibernating amphibians.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {26754}, pmid = {27229882}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Bufo bufo/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Hibernation ; Survival Rate ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates today, experiencing worldwide declines. In recent years considerable effort was invested in exposing the causes of these declines. Climate change has been identified as such a cause; however, the expectable effects of predicted milder, shorter winters on hibernation success of temperate-zone Amphibians have remained controversial, mainly due to a lack of controlled experimental studies. Here we present a laboratory experiment, testing the effects of simulated climate change on hibernating juvenile common toads (Bufo bufo). We simulated hibernation conditions by exposing toadlets to current (1.5 °C) or elevated (4.5 °C) hibernation temperatures in combination with current (91 days) or shortened (61 days) hibernation length. We found that a shorter winter and milder hibernation temperature increased survival of toads during hibernation. Furthermore, the increase in temperature and shortening of the cold period had a synergistic positive effect on body mass change during hibernation. Consequently, while climate change may pose severe challenges for amphibians of the temperate zone during their activity period, the negative effects may be dampened by shorter and milder winters experienced during hibernation.}, }
@article {pmid27226471, year = {2016}, author = {Sultaire, SM and Pauli, JN and Martin, KJ and Meyer, MW and Notaro, M and Zuckerberg, B}, title = {Correction to: Climate change surpasses land-use change in the contracting range boundary of a winter-adapted mammal.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {283}, number = {1831}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2016.0899}, pmid = {27226471}, issn = {1471-2954}, }
@article {pmid27225328, year = {2017}, author = {Inoue, K and Berg, DJ}, title = {Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel, Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {94-107}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13369}, pmid = {27225328}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; *Genetic Variation ; }, abstract = {In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream-dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward-time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater-ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream-dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27224975, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {WHO CALL ON COUNTRIES TO PROTECT HEALTH FROM CLIMATE CHANGE.}, journal = {Neurosciences (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {86-87}, pmid = {27224975}, issn = {1319-6138}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Diarrhea/mortality ; *Environmental Policy ; Floods ; Food Supply ; *Health Policy ; Heat Stress Disorders/mortality ; Humans ; Malaria/mortality ; Malnutrition/mortality ; *Public Health ; Water Supply ; *World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid27223473, year = {2016}, author = {Blennow, K and Persson, J and Persson, E and Hanewinkel, M}, title = {Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {e0155137}, pmid = {27223473}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Education ; Female ; *Forestry ; *Forests ; Germany ; Humans ; *Information Literacy ; Male ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.}, }
@article {pmid27222033, year = {2016}, author = {Sarkar, A and Mukherjee, AD and Bera, MK and Das, B and Juyal, N and Morthekai, P and Deshpande, RD and Shinde, VS and Rao, LS}, title = {Oxygen isotope in archaeological bioapatites from India: Implications to climate change and decline of Bronze Age Harappan civilization.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {26555}, pmid = {27222033}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The antiquity and decline of the Bronze Age Harappan civilization in the Indus-Ghaggar-Hakra river valleys is an enigma in archaeology. Weakening of the monsoon after ~5 ka BP (and droughts throughout the Asia) is a strong contender for the Harappan collapse, although controversy exists about the synchroneity of climate change and collapse of civilization. One reason for this controversy is lack of a continuous record of cultural levels and palaeomonsoon change in close proximity. We report a high resolution oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) record of animal teeth-bone phosphates from an archaeological trench itself at Bhirrana, NW India, preserving all cultural levels of this civilization. Bhirrana was part of a high concentration of settlements along the dried up mythical Vedic river valley 'Saraswati', an extension of Ghaggar river in the Thar desert. Isotope and archaeological data suggest that the pre-Harappans started inhabiting this area along the mighty Ghaggar-Hakra rivers fed by intensified monsoon from 9 to 7 ka BP. The monsoon monotonically declined after 7 ka yet the settlements continued to survive from early to mature Harappan time. Our study suggests that other cause like change in subsistence strategy by shifting crop patterns rather than climate change was responsible for Harappan collapse.}, }
@article {pmid27219116, year = {2016}, author = {Xu, H and Twine, TE and Girvetz, E}, title = {Climate Change and Maize Yield in Iowa.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {e0156083}, pmid = {27219116}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Iowa ; Linear Models ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21st century as compared with late 20th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model with output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20th century to middle and late 21st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid27214122, year = {2017}, author = {Wade, AA and Hand, BK and Kovach, RP and Luikart, G and Whited, DC and Muhlfeld, CC}, title = {Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species' climate-change vulnerability.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {136-149}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12764}, pmid = {27214122}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species' vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species' vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27210568, year = {2016}, author = {Qian, C and Yin, H and Shi, Y and Zhao, J and Yin, C and Luo, W and Dong, Z and Chen, G and Yan, X and Wang, XR and Ma, XF}, title = {Population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum, a pioneer annual plant endemic to mobile sand dunes, in response to global climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {26613}, pmid = {27210568}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Caryophyllaceae/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; *Desert Climate ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Climate change plays an important role in the transition of ecosystems. Stratigraphic investigations have suggested that the Asian interior experienced frequent transitions between grassland and desert ecosystems as a consequence of global climate change. Using maternally and bi-parentally inherited markers, we investigated the population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum (Chenopodiaceae), an annual pioneer plant endemic to mobile sand dunes. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that A. squarrosum could originate from Gurbantunggut desert since ~1.6 Ma, and subsequently underwent three waves of colonisation into other deserts and sandy lands corresponding to several glaciations. The rapid population expansion and distribution range shifts of A. squarrosum from monsoonal climate zones suggested that the development of the monsoonal climate significantly enhanced the population growth and gene flow of A. squarrosum. These data also suggested that desertification of the fragile grassland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was more ancient than previously suggested and will be aggravated under global warming in the future. This study provides new molecular phylogeographic insights into how pioneer annual plant species in desert ecosystems respond to global climate change, and facilitates evaluation of the ecological potential and genetic resources of future crops for non-arable dry lands to mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27209793, year = {2016}, author = {Petitpierre, B and McDougall, K and Seipel, T and Broennimann, O and Guisan, A and Kueffer, C}, title = {Will climate change increase the risk of plant invasions into mountains?.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {530-544}, doi = {10.1890/14-1871}, pmid = {27209793}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Introduced Species ; Models, Biological ; Plants/*classification ; Switzerland ; }, abstract = {Mountain ecosystems have been less adversely affected by invasions of non-native plants than most other ecosystems, partially because most invasive plants in the lowlands are limited by climate and cannot grow under harsher high-elevation conditions. However, with ongoing climate change, invasive species may rapidly move upwards and threaten mid-, and then high-elevation mountain ecosystems. We evaluated this threat by modeling the current and future habitat suitability for 48 invasive plant species in Switzerland and New South Wales, Australia. Both regions had contrasting climate interactions with elevation, resulting in possible different responses of species distributions to climate change. Using a species distribution modeling approach that combines data from two spatial scales, we built high-resolution species distribution models (≤ 250 m) that account for the global climatic niche of species and also finer variables depicting local climate and disturbances. We found that different environmental drivers limit the elevation range of invasive species in each of the two regions, leading to region-specific species responses to climate change. The optimal suitability for plant invaders is predicted to markedly shift from the lowland to the montane or subalpine zone in Switzerland, whereas the upward shift is far less pronounced in New South Wales where montane and subalpine elevations are already suitable. The results suggest that species most likely to invade high elevations in Switzerland will be cold-tolerant, whereas species with an affinity to moist soils are most likely to invade higher elevations in Australia. Other plant traits were only marginally associated with elevation limits. These results demonstrate that a more systematic consideration of future distributions of invasive species is required in conservation plans of not yet invaded mountainous ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid27207903, year = {2016}, author = {Guillebaud, J}, title = {Voluntary family planning to minimise and mitigate climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {353}, number = {}, pages = {i2102}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.i2102}, pmid = {27207903}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Family Planning Services/methods/*trends ; Global Health/*trends ; Greenhouse Effect ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Population Growth ; Preventive Medicine ; Qualitative Research ; Sex Education/*organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid27199092, year = {2017}, author = {Merrill, SC and Peairs, FB}, title = {Temperature variability is a key component in accurately forecasting the effects of climate change on pest phenology.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {73}, number = {2}, pages = {380-388}, doi = {10.1002/ps.4320}, pmid = {27199092}, issn = {1526-4998}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Helianthus/parasitology ; Models, Theoretical ; Monte Carlo Method ; *Temperature ; Weather ; Weevils/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Models describing the effects of climate change on arthropod pest ecology are needed to help mitigate and adapt to forthcoming changes. Challenges arise because climate data are at resolutions that do not readily synchronize with arthropod biology. Here we explain how multiple sources of climate and weather data can be synthesized to quantify the effects of climate change on pest phenology.<br><br>RESULTS: Predictions of phenological events differ substantially between models that incorporate scale-appropriate temperature variability and models that do not. As an illustrative example, we predicted adult emergence of a pest of sunflower, the sunflower stem weevil Cylindrocopturus adspersus (LeConte). Predictions of the timing of phenological events differed by an average of 11 days between models with different temperature variability inputs. Moreover, as temperature variability increases, developmental rates accelerate.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our work details a phenological modeling approach intended to help develop tools to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change. Results show that selection of scale-appropriate temperature data is of more importance than selecting a climate change emission scenario. Predictions derived without appropriate temperature variability inputs will likely result in substantial phenological event miscalculations. Additionally, results suggest that increased temperature instability will lead to accelerated pest development. &#xa9; 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid27197685, year = {2016}, author = {Misslin, R and Telle, O and Daudé, E and Vaguet, A and Paul, RE}, title = {Urban climate versus global climate change-what makes the difference for dengue?.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1382}, number = {1}, pages = {56-72}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.13084}, pmid = {27197685}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Animals ; Cities/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/diagnosis/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Global Health/*trends ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Insect Vectors ; Urbanization/*trends ; }, abstract = {The expansion in the geographical distribution of vector-borne diseases is a much emphasized consequence of climate change, as are the consequences of urbanization for diseases that are already endemic, which may be even more important for public health. In this paper, we focus on dengue, the most widespread urban vector-borne disease. Largely urban with a tropical/subtropical distribution and vectored by a domesticated mosquito, Aedes aegypti, dengue poses a serious public health threat. Temperature plays a determinant role in dengue epidemic potential, affecting crucial parts of the mosquito and viral life cycles. The urban predilection of the mosquito species will further exacerbate the impact of global temperature change because of the urban heat island effect. Even within a city, temperatures can vary by 10 °C according to urban land use, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) can be even greater. DTR has been shown to contribute significantly to dengue epidemic potential. Unraveling the importance of within-city temperature is as important for dengue as for the negative health consequences of high temperatures that have thus far been emphasized, for example, pollution and heat stroke. Urban and landscape planning designed to mitigate the non-infectious negative effects of temperature should additionally focus on dengue, which is currently spreading worldwide with no signs of respite.}, }
@article {pmid27196816, year = {2017}, author = {Wyka, SA and Smith, C and Munck, IA and Rock, BN and Ziniti, BL and Broders, K}, title = {Emergence of white pine needle damage in the northeastern United States is associated with changes in pathogen pressure in response to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {394-405}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13359}, pmid = {27196816}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Forests ; New England ; Pinus/*physiology ; *Plant Diseases ; Plant Leaves ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The defoliation of the eastern white pine (Pinus strobus) across the northeastern United States is an escalating concern threatening the ecological health of northern forests and economic vitality of the region's lumber industry. First documented in the spring of 2010 affecting 24 328 hectares in the state of Maine, white pine needle damage (WPND) has continued to spread and is now well established in all New England states. While causal agents of WPND are known, current research is lacking in both sampling distribution and the specific environmental factor(s) that affect the development and spread of this disease complex. This study aims to construct a more detailed distribution map of the four primary causal agents within the region, as well as utilize long-term WPND monitoring plots and data collected from land-based weather stations to develop a climatic model to predict the severity of defoliation events in the proceeding year. Sampling results showed a greater distribution of WPND than previously reported. WPND was generally found in forest stands that compromised >50% eastern white pine by basal area. No single species, nor a specific combination of species had a dominating presence in particular states or regions, thus supporting the disease complex theory that WPND is neither caused by an individual species nor by a specific combination of species. In addition, regional weather data confirmed the trend of increasing temperature and precipitation observed in this region with the previous year's May, June, and July rainfall being the best predictor of defoliation events in the following year. Climatic models were developed to aid land managers in predicting disease severity and accordingly adjust their management decisions. Our results clearly demonstrate the role changing climate patterns have on the health of eastern white pine in the northeastern United States.}, }
@article {pmid27191300, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {Readers panel - Facing up to climate change.}, journal = {Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987)}, volume = {30}, number = {35}, pages = {28-29}, doi = {10.7748/ns.30.35.28.s28}, pmid = {27191300}, issn = {2047-9018}, abstract = {Our experts consider a hot topic of the day.}, }
@article {pmid27190980, year = {2016}, author = {Maxwell, J and Blashki, G}, title = {Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity.}, journal = {Journal of public health research}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {673}, pmid = {27190980}, issn = {2279-9028}, abstract = {Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors' experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public healthThere is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27185921, year = {2016}, author = {Duffy, JE and Lefcheck, JS and Stuart-Smith, RD and Navarrete, SA and Edgar, GJ}, title = {Biodiversity enhances reef fish biomass and resistance to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {22}, pages = {6230-6235}, pmid = {27185921}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Fishes/*growth &amp; development ; Humans ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {Fishes are the most diverse group of vertebrates, play key functional roles in aquatic ecosystems, and provide protein for a billion people, especially in the developing world. Those functions are compromised by mounting pressures on marine biodiversity and ecosystems. Because of its economic and food value, fish biomass production provides an unusually direct link from biodiversity to critical ecosystem services. We used the Reef Life Survey's global database of 4,556 standardized fish surveys to test the importance of biodiversity to fish production relative to 25 environmental drivers. Temperature, biodiversity, and human influence together explained 47% of the global variation in reef fish biomass among sites. Fish species richness and functional diversity were among the strongest predictors of fish biomass, particularly for the large-bodied species and carnivores preferred by fishers, and these biodiversity effects were robust to potentially confounding influences of sample abundance, scale, and environmental correlations. Warmer temperatures increased biomass directly, presumably by raising metabolism, and indirectly by increasing diversity, whereas temperature variability reduced biomass. Importantly, diversity and climate interact, with biomass of diverse communities less affected by rising and variable temperatures than species-poor communities. Biodiversity thus buffers global fish biomass from climate change, and conservation of marine biodiversity can stabilize fish production in a changing ocean.}, }
@article {pmid27183821, year = {2016}, author = {Martinez, GS and Baccini, M and De Ridder, K and Hooyberghs, H and Lefebvre, W and Kendrovski, V and Scott, K and Spasenovska, M}, title = {Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {407}, pmid = {27183821}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Health ; Europe ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Mortality/*trends ; Public Health ; Republic of North Macedonia/epidemiology ; Seasons ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period.<br><br>METHODS: After ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5) and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100, and in a past time period (1986-2005) to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact.<br><br>RESULTS: Our estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986-2005), heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026-2045, and more than quadruple in 2081-2100. When considering the impact in 2081-2100, sampling variability around the heat-mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6&#xa0;% of total variability.<br><br>CONCLUSION: These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid27182979, year = {2016}, author = {González-Alcaraz, MN and van Gestel, CAM}, title = {Metal/metalloid (As, Cd and Zn) bioaccumulation in the earthworm Eisenia andrei under different scenarios of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {215}, number = {}, pages = {178-186}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2016.05.012}, pmid = {27182979}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; Arsenic/*analysis/metabolism ; Cadmium/*analysis/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Pollution ; Oligochaeta/*chemistry/metabolism ; Soil Pollutants/*analysis/metabolism ; Zinc/*analysis/metabolism ; }, abstract = {This study aimed at assessing the effects of global warming (increasing air temperature and decreasing soil moisture content) on the bioaccumulation kinetics of As, Cd and Zn in the earthworm Eisenia andrei in two polluted soils (mine tailing and watercourse soil). Earthworms were exposed for up to 21 d under four climate conditions: 20 °C + 50% soil water holding capacity (WHC) (standard conditions), 20 °C + 30% WHC, 25 °C + 50% WHC and 25 °C + 30% WHC. Porewater metal/metalloid availability did not change in the mine tailing soil after the incubation period under the different climate conditions tested. However, in the watercourse soil, porewater Cd concentrations decreased from ∼63 to ∼32-41 μg L(-1) after 21 d and Zn concentrations from ∼3761 to ∼1613-2170 μg L(-1), especially at 20 °C and 50% WHC. In both soils, As and Zn showed similar bioaccumulation patterns in the earthworms, without major differences among climate conditions. Earthworm concentrations peaked after 1-3 d of exposure (in μg g(-1) dry weight: As∼32.5-108, Zn∼704-1172) and then remained constant (typical pattern of essential elements even for As). For Cd the bioaccumulation pattern changed when changing the climate conditions. Under standard conditions, earthworm Cd concentrations increased to ∼12.6-18.5 μg g(-1) dry weight without reaching equilibrium (typical pattern of non-essential elements). However when increasing temperature and/or decreasing soil moisture content the bioaccumulation pattern changed towards that more typical of essential elements due to increased Cd elimination rates (from ∼0.11 to ∼0.24-1.27 d(-1) in the mine tailing soil, from ∼0.07 to ∼0.11-0.35 d(-1) in the watercourse soil) and faster achievement of a steady state. This study shows that metal/metalloid bioaccumulation pattern in earthworms may change dependent on climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid27179801, year = {2016}, author = {Habtemariam, LT and Gandorfer, M and Kassa, GA and Heissenhuber, A}, title = {Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {58}, number = {2}, pages = {343-358}, pmid = {27179801}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Ethiopia ; *Farmers/psychology ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Perception ; Soil/standards ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid27178300, year = {2016}, author = {Mizobuchi, R and Fukuoka, S and Tsushima, S and Yano, M and Sato, H}, title = {QTLs for Resistance to Major Rice Diseases Exacerbated by Global Warming: Brown Spot, Bacterial Seedling Rot, and Bacterial Grain Rot.}, journal = {Rice (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {23}, pmid = {27178300}, issn = {1939-8425}, abstract = {In rice (Oryza sativa L.), damage from diseases such as brown spot, caused by Bipolaris oryzae, and bacterial seedling rot and bacterial grain rot, caused by Burkholderia glumae, has increased under global warming because the optimal temperature ranges for growth of these pathogens are relatively high (around 30 °C). Therefore, the need for cultivars carrying genes for resistance to these diseases is increasing to ensure sustainable rice production. In contrast to the situation for other important rice diseases such as blast and bacterial blight, no genes for complete resistance to brown spot, bacterial seedling rot or bacterial grain rot have yet been discovered. Thus, rice breeders have to use partial resistance, which is largely influenced by environmental conditions. Recent progress in molecular genetics and improvement of evaluation methods for disease resistance have facilitated detection of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with resistance. In this review, we summarize the results of worldwide screening for cultivars with resistance to brown spot, bacterial seedling rot and bacterial grain rot and we discuss the identification of QTLs conferring resistance to these diseases in order to provide useful information for rice breeding programs.}, }
@article {pmid27174976, year = {2016}, author = {Wikelski, M and Tertitski, G}, title = {ECOLOGY. Living sentinels for climate change effects.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {352}, number = {6287}, pages = {775-776}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaf6544}, pmid = {27174976}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Charadriiformes/*abnormalities ; *Global Warming ; }, }
@article {pmid27173913, year = {2016}, author = {Wang, C and Chen, Z and Unteregelsbacher, S and Lu, H and Gschwendtner, S and Gasche, R and Kolar, A and Schloter, M and Kiese, R and Butterbach-Bahl, K and Dannenmann, M}, title = {Climate change amplifies gross nitrogen turnover in montane grasslands of Central Europe in both summer and winter seasons.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {9}, pages = {2963-2978}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13353}, pmid = {27173913}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Archaea ; Bacteria ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Grassland ; *Nitrogen ; Oxidation-Reduction ; Seasons ; Soil ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {The carbon- and nitrogen-rich soils of montane grasslands are exposed to above-average warming and to altered precipitation patterns as a result of global change. To investigate the consequences of climatic change for soil nitrogen turnover, we translocated intact plant-soil mesocosms along an elevational gradient, resulting in an increase of the mean annual temperature by approx. 2 °C while decreasing precipitation from approx. 1500 to 1000 mm. Following three years of equilibration, we monitored the dynamics of gross nitrogen turnover and ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA) in soils over an entire year. Gross nitrogen turnover and gene levels of AOB and AOA showed pronounced seasonal dynamics. Both summer and winter periods equally contributed to cumulative annual N turnover. However, highest gross N turnover and abundance of ammonia oxidizers were observed in frozen soil of the climate change site, likely due to physical liberation of organic substrates and their rapid turnover in the unfrozen soil water film. This effect was not observed at the control site, where soil freezing did not occur due to a significant insulating snowpack. Climate change conditions accelerated gross nitrogen mineralization by 250% on average. Increased N mineralization significantly stimulated gross nitrification by AOB rather than by AOA. However, climate change impacts were restricted to the 2-6 cm topsoil and rarely occurred at 12-16 cm depth, where generally much lower N turnover was observed. Our study shows that significant mineralization pulses occur under changing climate, which is likely to result in soil organic matter losses with their associated negative impacts on key soil functions. We also show that N cycling processes in frozen soil can be hot moments for N turnover and thus are of paramount importance for understanding seasonal patterns, annual sum of N turnover and possible climate change feedbacks.}, }
@article {pmid27170012, year = {2016}, author = {Madhusoodhanan, CG and Sreeja, KG and Eldho, TI}, title = {Climate change impact assessments on the water resources of India under extensive human interventions.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {45}, number = {6}, pages = {725-741}, pmid = {27170012}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Human Activities ; India ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Water Resources/*supply &amp; distribution ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major concern in the twenty-first century and its assessments are associated with multiple uncertainties, exacerbated and confounded in the regions where human interventions are prevalent. The present study explores the challenges for climate change impact assessment on the water resources of India, one of the world's largest human-modified systems. The extensive human interventions in the Energy-Land-Water-Climate (ELWC) nexus significantly impact the water resources of the country. The direct human interventions in the landscape may surpass/amplify/mask the impacts of climate change and in the process also affect climate change itself. Uncertainties in climate and resource assessments add to the challenge. Formulating coherent resource and climate change policies in India would therefore require an integrated approach that would assess the multiple interlinkages in the ELWC nexus and distinguish the impacts of global climate change from that of regional human interventions. Concerted research efforts are also needed to incorporate the prominent linkages in the ELWC nexus in climate/earth system modelling.}, }
@article {pmid27167740, year = {2016}, author = {Dodds, PS and Mitchell, L and Reagan, AJ and Danforth, CM}, title = {Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {e0154184}, pmid = {27167740}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate ; Climate Change/history/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Cold Temperature ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; *Models, Statistical ; Rain ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; United States ; }, abstract = {Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms-the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyse daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853-2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice. We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. Our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models.}, }
@article {pmid27164412, year = {2017}, author = {Ekholm, S and Olofsson, A}, title = {Parenthood and Worrying About Climate Change: The Limitations of Previous Approaches.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {37}, number = {2}, pages = {305-314}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12626}, pmid = {27164412}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {The present study considers the correlation between parenthood and worry about the consequences of climate change. Two approaches to gauging people's perceptions of the risks of climate change are compared: the classic approach, which measures risk perception, and the emotion-based approach, which measures feelings toward a risk object. The empirical material is based on a questionnaire-based survey of 3,529 people in Sweden, of whom 1,376 answered, giving a response rate of 39%. The results show that the correlation of parenthood and climate risk is significant when the emotional aspect is raised, but not when respondents were asked to do cognitive estimates of risk. Parenthood proves significant in all three questions that measure feelings, demonstrating that it is a determinant that serves to increase worry about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27163695, year = {2016}, author = {Daoud, A and Halleröd, B and Guha-Sapir, D}, title = {Correction: What Is the Association between Absolute Child Poverty, Poor Governance, and Natural Disasters? A Global Comparison of Some of the Realities of Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {e0155653}, pmid = {27163695}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0153296.].}, }
@article {pmid27161934, year = {2016}, author = {Song, X and Zhou, G and Xu, Z and Lv, X and Wang, Y}, title = {A self-photoprotection mechanism helps Stipa baicalensis adapt to future climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {25839}, pmid = {27161934}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological/radiation effects ; *Climate Change ; Gases/metabolism ; Light ; *Photochemical Processes/radiation effects ; Photosynthesis/radiation effects ; Plant Leaves/physiology/radiation effects ; Poaceae/*physiology/*radiation effects ; Soil ; Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {We examined the photosynthetic responses of Stipa baicalensis to relative long-term exposure (42 days) to the predicted elevated temperature and water availability changes to determine the mechanisms through which the plant would acclimate to future climate change. Two thermal regimes (ambient and +4 °C) and three irrigation levels (partial, normal and excess) were used in environmental control chambers. The gas exchange parameters, light response curves and A/Ci curves were determined. The elevated temperature and partial irrigation reduced the net photosynthetic rate due to a limitation in the photosynthetic capacity instead of the intercellular CO2 concentration. Partial irrigation decreased Rubisco activation and limited RuBP regeneration. The reduction in Vcmax increased with increasing temperature. Excess irrigation offset the negative effect of drought and led to a partial recovery of the photosynthetic capacity. Although its light use efficiency was restricted, the use of light and dark respiration by Stipa baicalensis was unchanged. We concluded that nonstomatal limitation was the primary reason for photosynthesis regulation in Stipa baicalensis under relative long-term climate change conditions. Although climate change caused reductions in the light use efficiency and photosynthetic rate, a self-photoprotection mechanism in Stipa baicalensis resulted in its high ability to maintain normal live activities.}, }
@article {pmid27161019, year = {2016}, author = {Resnik, DB}, title = {Bioethics and Climate Change: A Response to Macpherson and Valles.}, journal = {Bioethics}, volume = {30}, number = {8}, pages = {649-652}, pmid = {27161019}, issn = {1467-8519}, support = {ZIA ES102646-07//Intramural NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Bioethical Issues ; *Bioethics ; *Climate Change ; Ethical Analysis ; Ethicists ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Two articles published in Bioethics recently have explored the ways that bioethics can contribute to the climate change debate. Cheryl Cox Macpherson argues that bioethicists can play an important role in the climate change debate by helping the public to better understand the values at stake and the trade-offs that must be made in individual and social choices, and Sean Valles claims that bioethicists can contribute to the debate by framing the issues in terms of the public health impacts of climate change. While Macpherson and Valles make valid points concerning a potential role for bioethics in the climate change debate, it is important to recognize that much more than ethical analysis and reflection will be needed to significantly impact public attitudes and government policies.}, }
@article {pmid27157328, year = {2016}, author = {Medina, M and Fernández, JB and Charruau, P and de la Cruz, FM and Ibargüengoytía, N}, title = {Vulnerability to climate change of Anolis allisoni in the mangrove habitats of Banco Chinchorro Islands, Mexico.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {58}, number = {}, pages = {8-14}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2016.02.005}, pmid = {27157328}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Body Size ; Body Temperature ; Body Temperature Regulation ; Ecosystem ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Lizards/*physiology ; Male ; Mexico ; Sex Characteristics ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {As niche specialist species, lizards from tropical environments are characterized by a low tolerance and high physiological sensitivity to temperature changes. The extent of vulnerability to thermal changes depends on the lizard's physiological plasticity to adjust the environmental changes. Herein we studied the thermal biology of Anolis allisoni, an endemic arboreal lizard from the tropical islands of the Banco Chinchorro Biosphere Reserve, Mexico, carried out during April and May 2012 and April 2014. We report field body (Tb) and preferred body temperatures in the laboratory (Tpref), operative temperatures (Te) and restriction of hours of activity. Anolis allisoni showed high and identical Tb and Tpref (33°C), not significantly different than the mean Te (32.15°C). The effectiveness of thermoregulation (E=-0.30) and the analysis of hours of restriction suggested that the high temperatures of Te (40-62.5°C) registered at midday (from 12:00 to 15:00) of A. allisoni habitat are hostile and force lizards to take refuge during a period of 3h of their daily time of activity. The scarcity of opportunities to find alternative refuges for thermoregulation in Banco Chinchorro point out the vulnerability of A. allisoni and the risk of local extinction when considering future predictions of increase in global environmental temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid27151892, year = {2016}, author = {Glaser, J and Lemery, J and Rajagopalan, B and Diaz, HF and García-Trabanino, R and Taduri, G and Madero, M and Amarasinghe, M and Abraham, G and Anutrakulchai, S and Jha, V and Stenvinkel, P and Roncal-Jimenez, C and Lanaspa, MA and Correa-Rotter, R and Sheikh-Hamad, D and Burdmann, EA and Andres-Hernando, A and Milagres, T and Weiss, I and Kanbay, M and Wesseling, C and Sánchez-Lozada, LG and Johnson, RJ}, title = {Climate Change and the Emergent Epidemic of CKD from Heat Stress in Rural Communities: The Case for Heat Stress Nephropathy.}, journal = {Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {1472-1483}, pmid = {27151892}, issn = {1555-905X}, support = {I01 BX002586/BX/BLRD VA/United States ; }, mesh = {Central America/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Dehydration/etiology ; *Epidemics ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology/etiology ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; North America/epidemiology ; Physical Exertion ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/*epidemiology/etiology ; South America/epidemiology ; Sri Lanka/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change has led to significant rise of 0.8°C-0.9°C in global mean temperature over the last century and has been linked with significant increases in the frequency and severity of heat waves (extreme heat events). Climate change has also been increasingly connected to detrimental human health. One of the consequences of climate-related extreme heat exposure is dehydration and volume loss, leading to acute mortality from exacerbations of pre-existing chronic disease, as well as from outright heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Recent studies have also shown that recurrent heat exposure with physical exertion and inadequate hydration can lead to CKD that is distinct from that caused by diabetes, hypertension, or GN. Epidemics of CKD consistent with heat stress nephropathy are now occurring across the world. Here, we describe this disease, discuss the locations where it appears to be manifesting, link it with increasing temperatures, and discuss ongoing attempts to prevent the disease. Heat stress nephropathy may represent one of the first epidemics due to global warming. Government, industry, and health policy makers in the impacted regions should place greater emphasis on occupational and community interventions.}, }
@article {pmid27151406, year = {2017}, author = {Maclean, IM and Suggitt, AJ and Wilson, RJ and Duffy, JP and Bennie, JJ}, title = {Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {256-268}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13343}, pmid = {27151406}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Altitude ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Microclimate ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The existence of fine-grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed 'microrefugia'. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine-grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977-2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long-term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north-east-facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost-free season varied from +11 to -54 days and the increase in annual growing degree-days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west-facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27150265, year = {2018}, author = {Mercer, D}, title = {Why Popper can't resolve the debate over global warming: Problems with the uses of philosophy of science in the media and public framing of the science of global warming.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {139-152}, doi = {10.1177/0963662516645040}, pmid = {27150265}, issn = {1361-6609}, abstract = {A notable feature in the public framing of debates involving the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming are appeals to uncritical 'positivist' images of the ideal scientific method. Versions of Sir Karl Popper's philosophy of falsification appear most frequently, featuring in many Web sites and broader media. This use of pop philosophy of science forms part of strategies used by critics, mainly from conservative political backgrounds, to manufacture doubt, by setting unrealistic standards for sound science, in the veracity of science of Anthropogenic Global Warming. It will be shown, nevertheless, that prominent supporters of Anthropogenic Global Warming science also often use similar references to Popper to support their claims. It will also be suggested that this pattern reflects longer traditions of the use of Popperian philosophy of science in controversial settings, particularly in the United States, where appeals to the authority of science to legitimize policy have been most common. It will be concluded that studies of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming debate would benefit from taking greater interest in questions raised by un-reflexive and politically expedient public understanding(s) of the philosophy of science of both critics and supporters of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming.}, }
@article {pmid27148728, year = {2016}, author = {Hasse, JU and Weingaertner, DE}, title = {From vision to action: roadmapping as a strategic method and tool to implement climate change adaptation - the example of the roadmap 'water sensitive urban design 2020'.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {73}, number = {9}, pages = {2251-2259}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2016.065}, pmid = {27148728}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Decision Making ; Germany ; Sanitary Engineering/*methods ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {As the central product of the BMBF-KLIMZUG-funded Joint Network and Research Project (JNRP) 'dynaklim - Dynamic adaptation of regional planning and development processes to the effects of climate change in the Emscher-Lippe region (North Rhine Westphalia, Germany)', the Roadmap 2020 'Regional Climate Adaptation' has been developed by the various regional stakeholders and institutions containing specific regional scenarios, strategies and adaptation measures applicable throughout the region. This paper presents the method, elements and main results of this regional roadmap process by using the example of the thematic sub-roadmap 'Water Sensitive Urban Design 2020'. With a focus on the process support tool 'KlimaFLEX', one of the main adaptation measures of the WSUD 2020 roadmap, typical challenges for integrated climate change adaptation like scattered knowledge, knowledge gaps and divided responsibilities but also potential solutions and promising chances for urban development and urban water management are discussed. With the roadmap and the related tool, the relevant stakeholders of the Emscher-Lippe region have jointly developed important prerequisites to integrate their knowledge, to clarify vulnerabilities, adaptation goals, responsibilities and interests, and to foresightedly coordinate measures, resources, priorities and schedules for an efficient joint urban planning, well-grounded decision-making in times of continued uncertainties and step-by-step implementation of adaptation measures from now on.}, }
@article {pmid27149551, year = {2016}, author = {Motanya, NC and Valera, P}, title = {Climate Change and Its Impact on the Incarcerated Population: A Descriptive Review.}, journal = {Social work in public health}, volume = {31}, number = {5}, pages = {348-357}, doi = {10.1080/19371918.2015.1137513}, pmid = {27149551}, issn = {1937-190X}, mesh = {Civil Defense ; *Climate Change ; Criminal Law ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; New Orleans ; *Prisoners ; Public Health ; Social Work ; }, abstract = {This descriptive review article describes climate change and its detrimental effects on incarcerated populations. Case examples are provided of specific natural disasters and deaths due to overheating temperatures. Because public health and social work aims to improve the health and social welfare of vulnerable populations, the authors explain why climate change should be considered a priority area in both fields. Examples are provided on how to improve conditions for the 2.4 million men, women, and youth who are incarcerated.}, }
@article {pmid27145522, year = {2016}, author = {Prasad, T}, title = {Climate change: Child's play?.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {52}, number = {4}, pages = {471-472}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.13117}, pmid = {27145522}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; *Family ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid27137087, year = {2016}, author = {Foo, R}, title = {The role of physiotherapy in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Physiotherapy}, volume = {102}, number = {3}, pages = {e5}, doi = {10.1016/j.physio.2015.10.009}, pmid = {27137087}, issn = {1873-1465}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Physical Therapy Modalities ; }, }
@article {pmid27136458, year = {2016}, author = {Westphal, MF and Stewart, JA and Tennant, EN and Butterfield, HS and Sinervo, B}, title = {Contemporary Drought and Future Effects of Climate Change on the Endangered Blunt-Nosed Leopard Lizard, Gambelia sila.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {e0154838}, pmid = {27136458}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Endangered Species ; Lizards ; Population Dynamics ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Extreme weather events can provide unique opportunities for testing models that predict the effect of climate change. Droughts of increasing severity have been predicted under numerous models, thus contemporary droughts may allow us to test these models prior to the onset of the more extreme effects predicted with a changing climate. In the third year of an ongoing severe drought, surveys failed to detect neonate endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizards in a subset of previously surveyed populations where we expected to see them. By conducting surveys at a large number of sites across the range of the species over a short time span, we were able to establish a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation and the presence of neonate leopard lizards over geographic space. Our results are consistent with those of numerous longitudinal studies and are in accordance with predictive climate change models. We suggest that scientists can take immediate advantage of droughts while they are still in progress to test patterns of occurrence in other drought-sensitive species and thus provide for more robust models of climate change effects on biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid27135584, year = {2016}, author = {Zhang, Y and Zhang, C and Wang, Z and Chen, Y and Gang, C and An, R and Li, J}, title = {Vegetation dynamics and its driving forces from climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region, China from 1982 to 2012.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {563-564}, number = {}, pages = {210-220}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.223}, pmid = {27135584}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Three-River Source Region (TRSR), a region with key importance to the ecological security of China, has undergone climate changes and a shift in human activities driven by a series of ecological restoration projects in recent decades. To reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation dynamics and calculate the contributions of driving factors in the TRSR across different periods from 1982 to 2012, net primary productivity (NPP) estimated using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach model was used to assess the status of vegetation. The actual effects of different climatic variation trends on interannual variation in NPP were analyzed. Furthermore, the relationships of NPP with different climate factors and human activities were analyzed quantitatively. Results showed the following: from 1982 to 2012, the average NPP in the study area was 187.37gcm(-2)yr(-1). The average NPP exhibited a fluctuation but presented a generally increasing trend over the 31-year study period, with an increase rate of 1.31gcm(-2)yr(-2). During the entire study period, the average contributions of temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation to NPP interannual variation over the entire region were 0.58, 0.73, and 0.09gcm(-2)yr(-2), respectively. Radiation was the climate factor with the greatest influence on NPP interannual variation. The factor that restricted NPP increase changed from temperature and radiation to precipitation. The average contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP interannual variation were 1.40gcm(-2)yr(-2) and -0.08gcm(-2)yr(-2), respectively. From 1982 to 2000, the general climate conditions were favorable to vegetation recovery, whereas human activities had a weaker negative impact on vegetation growth. From 2001 to 2012, climate conditions began to have a negative impact on vegetation growth, whereas human activities made a favorable impact on vegetation recovery.}, }
@article {pmid27135130, year = {2016}, author = {Bryce, J and Foley, E and Reeves, J}, title = {CALLING CODE BLUE ON CLIMATE CHANGE.}, journal = {Australian nursing &amp; midwifery journal}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {32}, pmid = {27135130}, issn = {2202-7114}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Status ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid27128933, year = {2016}, author = {Barraza, R and Velazquez-Angulo, G and Flores-Tavizón, E and Romero-González, J and Huertas-Cardozo, JI}, title = {The Role of Science in Advising the Decision Making Process: A Pathway for Building Effective Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Mexico at the Local Level.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {}, pmid = {27128933}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Cities/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Decision Making ; Humans ; *Interprofessional Relations ; Local Government ; Mexico ; *Policy Making ; *Politics ; *Science ; }, abstract = {This study examines a pathway for building urban climate change mitigation policies by presenting a multi-dimensional and transdisciplinary approach in which technical, economic, environmental, social, and political dimensions interact. Now, more than ever, the gap between science and policymaking needs to be bridged; this will enable judicious choices to be made in regarding energy and climate change mitigation strategies, leading to positive social impacts, in particular for the populations at-risk at the local level. Through a case study in Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico, we propose a multidimensional and transdisciplinary approach with the role of scientist as policy advisers to improve the role of science in decision-making on mitigation policies at the local level in Mexico.}, }
@article {pmid27126780, year = {2016}, author = {Chapman, R and Howden-Chapman, P and Capon, A}, title = {Understanding the systemic nature of cities to improve health and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {94}, number = {}, pages = {380-387}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2016.04.014}, pmid = {27126780}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {*Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Policy Making ; Public Policy ; *Urban Health ; }, abstract = {Understanding cities comprehensively as systems is a costly challenge and is typically not feasible for policy makers. Nevertheless, focusing on some key systemic characteristics of cities can give useful insights for policy to advance health and well-being outcomes. Moreover, if we take a coevolutionary systems view of cities, some conventional assumptions about the nature of urban development (e.g. the growth in private vehicle use with income) may not stand up. We illustrate this by examining the coevolution of urban transport and land use systems, and institutional change, giving examples of policy implications. At a high level, our concern derives from the need to better understand the dynamics of urban change, and its implications for health and well-being. At a practical level, we see opportunities to use stylised findings about urban systems to underpin policy experiments. While it is now not uncommon to view cities as systems, policy makers appear to have made little use so far of a systems approach to inform choice of policies with consequences for health and well-being. System insights can be applied to intelligently anticipate change - for example, as cities are subjected to increasing natural system reactions to climate change, they must find ways to mitigate and adapt to it. Secondly, systems insights around policy cobenefits are vital for better informing horizontal policy integration. Lastly, an implication of system complexity is that rather than seeking detailed, 'full' knowledge about urban issues and policies, cities would be well advised to engage in policy experimentation to address increasingly urgent health and climate change issues.}, }
@article {pmid27124597, year = {2016}, author = {Mann, ML and Batllori, E and Moritz, MA and Waller, EK and Berck, P and Flint, AL and Flint, LE and Dolfi, E}, title = {Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e0153589}, pmid = {27124597}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Anthropology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; California ; Climate ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disasters/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fires/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Human Activities/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Probability ; }, abstract = {The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.}, }
@article {pmid27124443, year = {2016}, author = {Alley, RB}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. A heated mirror for future climate.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {352}, number = {6282}, pages = {151-152}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaf4837}, pmid = {27124443}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; Fossils ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid27123845, year = {2016}, author = {Tillotson, MD and Quinn, TP}, title = {Beyond Correlation in the Detection of Climate Change Impacts: Testing a Mechanistic Hypothesis for Climatic Influence on Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) Productivity.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e0154356}, pmid = {27123845}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Alaska ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Fresh Water ; Geography ; Least-Squares Analysis ; Life Cycle Stages ; Models, Theoretical ; Regression Analysis ; Rivers ; Salmon/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Water/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Detecting the biological impacts of climate change is a current focus of ecological research and has important applications in conservation and resource management. Owing to a lack of suitable control systems, measuring correlations between time series of biological attributes and hypothesized environmental covariates is a common method for detecting such impacts. These correlative approaches are particularly common in studies of exploited fish species because rich biological time-series data are often available. However, the utility of species-environment relationships for identifying or predicting biological responses to climate change has been questioned because strong correlations often deteriorate as new data are collected. Specifically stating and critically evaluating the mechanistic relationship(s) linking an environmental driver to a biological response may help to address this problem. Using nearly 60 years of data on sockeye salmon from the Kvichak River, Alaska we tested a mechanistic hypothesis linking water temperatures experienced during freshwater rearing to population productivity by modeling a series of intermediate, deterministic relationships and evaluating temporal trends in biological and environmental time-series. We found that warming waters during freshwater rearing have profoundly altered patterns of growth and life history in this population complex yet there has been no significant correlation between water temperature and metrics of productivity commonly used in fisheries management. These findings demonstrate that pairing correlative approaches with careful consideration of the mechanistic links between populations and their environments can help to both avoid spurious correlations and identify biologically important, but not statistically significant relationships, and ultimately producing more robust conclusions about the biological impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27123575, year = {2016}, author = {Hennes, EP and Ruisch, BC and Feygina, I and Monteiro, CA and Jost, JT}, title = {Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental psychology. General}, volume = {145}, number = {6}, pages = {755-771}, doi = {10.1037/xge0000148}, pmid = {27123575}, issn = {1939-2222}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; *Economics ; Humans ; *Mental Recall ; *Motivation ; }, abstract = {The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record}, }
@article {pmid27120818, year = {2016}, author = {Rhodes, CJ}, title = {The 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference: COP21.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {99}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {97-104}, pmid = {27120818}, issn = {2047-7163}, }
@article {pmid27118831, year = {2016}, author = {Parker, A}, title = {Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is stable under global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {20}, pages = {E2760-1}, pmid = {27118831}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Climate ; *Global Warming ; *Water Movements ; }, }
@article {pmid27117486, year = {2017}, author = {Domínguez, M and Lafita, &#xcd; and Mateu, A}, title = {Taking climate change seriously: An analysis of op-ed articles in Spanish press.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {861-871}, doi = {10.1177/0963662516641844}, pmid = {27117486}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Newspapers as Topic ; Politics ; *Public Opinion ; Spain ; }, abstract = {In this article, we study the evolution of opinion genres regarding climate change in three Spanish newspapers (El País, El Mundo, and ABC). Analyzing the op-ed articles in these newspapers, we observe a significant change in the evolution of opinion. While denialism was very present in conservative press in 2007, 7 years later it is almost absent from El Mundo, and its presence in ABC is much lower and inactive: this shows that scientific consensus has prevailed over time and Spanish denialism has weakened, exclusively supported by political arguments by the most conservative parties.}, }
@article {pmid27115798, year = {2016}, author = {The Lancet, }, title = {The perfect storm: climate change and its health consequences.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {387}, number = {10026}, pages = {1348}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30117-9}, pmid = {27115798}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid27115684, year = {2016}, author = {Naoe, S and Tayasu, I and Sakai, Y and Masaki, T and Kobayashi, K and Nakajima, A and Sato, Y and Yamazaki, K and Kiyokawa, H and Koike, S}, title = {Mountain-climbing bears protect cherry species from global warming through vertical seed dispersal.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {26}, number = {8}, pages = {R315-6}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2016.03.002}, pmid = {27115684}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; Oxygen Isotopes/*analysis ; Seasons ; *Seed Dispersal ; Temperature ; *Ursidae/classification ; }, abstract = {In a warming climate, temperature-sensitive plants must move toward colder areas, that is, higher latitude or altitude, by seed dispersal [1]. Considering that the temperature drop with increasing altitude (-0.65°C per 100 m altitude) is one hundred to a thousand times larger than that of the equivalent latitudinal distance [2], vertical seed dispersal is probably a key process for plant escape from warming temperatures. In fact, plant geographical distributions are tracking global warming altitudinally rather than latitudinally, and the extent of tracking is considered to be large in plants with better-dispersed traits (e.g., lighter seeds in wind-dispersed plants) [1]. However, no study has evaluated vertical seed dispersal itself due to technical difficulty or high cost. Here, we show using a stable oxygen isotope that black bears disperse seeds of wild cherry over several hundred meters vertically, and that the dispersal direction is heavily biased towards the mountain tops. Mountain climbing by bears following spring-to-summer plant phenology is likely the cause of this biased seed dispersal. These results suggest that spring- and summer-fruiting plants dispersed by animals may have high potential to escape global warming. Our results also indicate that the direction of vertical seed dispersal can be unexpectedly biased, and highlight the importance of considering seed dispersal direction to understand plant responses to past and future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27115294, year = {2016}, author = {Schulte, PA and Bhattacharya, A and Butler, CR and Chun, HK and Jacklitsch, B and Jacobs, T and Kiefer, M and Lincoln, J and Pendergrass, S and Shire, J and Watson, J and Wagner, GR}, title = {Advancing the framework for considering the effects of climate change on worker safety and health.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental hygiene}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {847-865}, pmid = {27115294}, issn = {1545-9632}, support = {CC999999//Intramural CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Geography ; Humans ; Occupational Exposure/*analysis ; Occupational Health/*trends ; Risk Assessment ; *Temperature ; United States ; }, abstract = {In 2009, a preliminary framework for how climate change could affect worker safety and health was described. That framework was based on a literature search from 1988-2008 that supported seven categories of climate-related occupational hazards: (1) increased ambient temperature; (2) air pollution; (3) ultraviolet radiation exposure; (4) extreme weather; (5) vector-borne diseases and expanded habitats; (6) industrial transitions and emerging industries; and (7) changes in the built environment. This article reviews the published literature from 2008-2014 in each of the seven categories. Additionally, three new topics related to occupational safety and health are considered: mental health effects, economic burden, and potential worker safety and health impacts associated with the nascent field of climate intervention (geoengineering). Beyond updating the literature, this article also identifies key priorities for action to better characterize and understand how occupational safety and health may be associated with climate change events and ensure that worker health and safety issues are anticipated, recognized, evaluated, and mitigated. These key priorities include research, surveillance, risk assessment, risk management, and policy development. Strong evidence indicates that climate change will continue to present occupational safety and health hazards, and this framework may be a useful tool for preventing adverse effects to workers.}, }
@article {pmid27112281, year = {2016}, author = {Jones, RA}, title = {Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.}, journal = {Advances in virus research}, volume = {95}, number = {}, pages = {87-147}, doi = {10.1016/bs.aivir.2016.02.004}, pmid = {27112281}, issn = {1557-8399}, mesh = {Animals ; Aphids/virology ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Food Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Insect Vectors/virology ; *Models, Statistical ; Plant Diseases/*virology ; Plant Viruses/*pathogenicity/physiology ; Plant Weeds/physiology ; Plants/*virology ; }, abstract = {Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid27111991, year = {2015}, author = {Du, JQ and Jiaerheng, A and Zhao, C and Fang, GL and Yin, JQ and Xiang, B and Yuan, XJ and Fang, SF}, title = {[Dynamic changes in vegetation NDVI from 1982 to 2012 and its responses to climate change and human activities in Xinjiang, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {12}, pages = {3567-3578}, pmid = {27111991}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon ; China ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fertilizers ; Gossypium ; Grassland ; *Human Activities ; Livestock ; *Plants ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the terrestrial carbon balance and the climate system, and also overwhelmingly dominates the provisioning of ecosystem services. Therefore, it has significance to monitor the growth of vegetation. Based on AVHRR GIMMS NDVI and MODIS NDVI datasets, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of change in NDVI and their linkage with climate change and human activity from 1982 to 2012 in the typical arid region, Xinjiang of northwestern China, at pixel and regional scales. At regional scale, although a statistically significant positive trend of growing season NDVI with a rate of 4.09 x 10[-4]· a[-1] was found during 1982-2012, there were two distinct periods with opposite trends in growing season NDVI before and after 1998, respectively. NDVI in growing season first significantly increased with a rate of 10 x 10[-4]· a[-1] from 1982 to 1998, and then decreased with a rate of -3 x 10[-4]· a[-1] from 1998 to 2012. The change in trend of NDVI from increase to decrease mainly occurred in summer, followed by autumn, and the reversal wasn't observed in spring. At pixel scale, the NDVI in farmland significantly increased; the NDVI changes in the growing season and all seasons showed polarization: Areas with significant change mostly increased in size as the NDVI record grown in length. The rate of increase in size of areas with significantly decreasing NDVI was larger than that with significantly increasing NDVI, which led to the NDVI increase obviously slowing down or stopping at regional scale. The vegetation growth in the study area was regulated by both climate change and human activity. Temperature was the most important driving factor in spring and autumn, whereas precipitation in summer. Extensive use of fertilizers and increased farmland irrigated area promoted the vegetation growth. However, the rapid increase in the proportion of cotton cultivation and use of drip irrigation might reduce spring NDVI in the part of farmlands, and the increase in stocking levels of livestock might lead to a decrease in NDVI in some grasslands.}, }
@article {pmid27110979, year = {2016}, author = {Aich, V and Liersch, S and Vetter, T and Fournet, S and Andersson, JCM and Calmanti, S and van Weert, FHA and Hattermann, FF and Paton, EN}, title = {Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {562}, number = {}, pages = {666-677}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.021}, pmid = {27110979}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB.}, }
@article {pmid27110806, year = {2016}, author = {Burrows, K and Kinney, PL}, title = {Exploring the Climate Change, Migration and Conflict Nexus.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {443}, pmid = {27110806}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Emigration and Immigration ; Humans ; Refugees ; *Warfare ; }, abstract = {The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been widely discussed and is increasingly viewed by policy makers as a security issue. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the role that climate variability and change play among the many drivers of migration and conflict. The overall objective of this paper is to explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration and increased risk of conflict. We review the existing literature surrounding this issue and break the problem into two components: the links between climate change and migration, and those between migration and conflict. We found a large range of views regarding the importance of climate change as a driver for increasing rates of migration and subsequently of conflict. We argue that future research should focus not only on the climate-migration-conflict pathway but also work to understand the other pathways by which climate variability and change might exacerbate conflict. We conclude by proposing five questions to help guide future research on the link between climate change, migration, and conflict.}, }
@article {pmid27110801, year = {2016}, author = {Paz, S and Negev, M and Clermont, A and Green, MS}, title = {Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {438}, pmid = {27110801}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Cities ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Health Planning ; Humans ; Los Angeles ; Mediterranean Region ; *Public Health ; South Africa ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.}, }
@article {pmid27109012, year = {2016}, author = {Bataillon, T and Galtier, N and Bernard, A and Cryer, N and Faivre, N and Santoni, S and Severac, D and Mikkelsen, TN and Larsen, KS and Beier, C and Sørensen, JG and Holmstrup, M and Ehlers, BK}, title = {A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {2370-2379}, pmid = {27109012}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Gene Frequency ; Invertebrates/*genetics ; Polymorphism, Genetic ; *Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response.}, }
@article {pmid27107974, year = {2016}, author = {Tambo, E and Duo-Quan, W and Zhou, XN}, title = {Tackling air pollution and extreme climate changes in China: Implementing the Paris climate change agreement.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {95}, number = {}, pages = {152-156}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2016.04.010}, pmid = {27107974}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide ; China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Coal ; Fossil Fuels ; Humans ; Power Plants ; Wind ; }, abstract = {China still depends on coal for more than 60% of its power despite big investments in the process of shifting to nuclear, solar and wind power renewable energy resources alignment with Paris climate change agreement (Paris CCA). Chinese government through the Communist Party Central Committee (CPCC) ascribes great importance and commitment to Paris CCA legacy and history landmark implementation at all levels. As the world's biggest carbon dioxide emitter, China has embarked on "SMART" pollution and climate changes programs and measures to reduce coal-fired power plants to less than 50% in the next five years include: new China model of energy policies commitment on CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions reductions to less than 20% non-fossil energy use by 2030 without undermining their economic growth, newly introduced electric vehicles transportation benefits, interactive and sustained air quality index (AQI) monitoring systems, decreasing reliance on fossil fuel economic activities, revision of energy price reforms and renewable energy to less energy efficient technologies development. Furthermore, ongoing CPCC improved environmental initiatives, implemented strict regulations and penalties on local companies and firms' pollution production management, massive infrastructures such as highways to reduce CO2 expansion of seven regional emissions trading markets and programs for CO2 emissions and other pollutants are being documented. Maximizing on the centralized nature of the China's government, implemented Chinese pollution, climate changes mitigation and adaptation initiatives, "SMART" strategies and credible measures are promising. A good and practical example is the interactive and dynamic website and database covering 367 Chinese cities and providing real time information on environmental and pollution emissions AQI. Also, water quality index (WQI), radiation and nuclear safety monitoring and management systems over time and space. These are ongoing Chinese valuable and exemplary leadership in Paris CCA implementation to the global community. Especially to pragmatic and responsible efforts to support pollution and climate changes capacity development, technology transfer and empowerment in emissions surveillance and monitoring systems and "SMART" integrated climate changes mitigation packages in global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) context, citizenry health and wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid27104611, year = {2016}, author = {Molloy, SW and Davis, RA and van Etten, EJ}, title = {Incorporating Field Studies into Species Distribution and Climate Change Modelling: A Case Study of the Koomal Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus (Phalangeridae).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e0154161}, pmid = {27104611}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior/physiology ; South Australia ; Trees/physiology ; Trichosurus/*physiology ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective way of predicting the potential distribution of species and their response to environmental change. Most SDMs apply presence data to a relatively generic set of predictive variables such as climate. However, this weakens the modelling process by overlooking the responses to more cryptic predictive variables. In this paper we demonstrate a means by which data gathered from an intensive animal trapping study can be used to enhance SDMs by combining field data with bioclimatic modelling techniques to determine the future potential distribution for the koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus). The koomal is a geographically isolated subspecies of the common brushtail possum, endemic to south-western Australia. Since European settlement this taxon has undergone a significant reduction in distribution due to its vulnerability to habitat fragmentation, introduced predators and tree/shrub dieback caused by a virulent group of plant pathogens of the genus Phytophthora. An intensive field study found: 1) the home range for the koomal rarely exceeded 1 km in in length at its widest point; 2) areas heavily infested with dieback were not occupied; 3) gap crossing between patches (>400 m) was common behaviour; 4) koomal presence was linked to the extent of suitable vegetation; and 5) where the needs of koomal were met, populations in fragments were demographically similar to those found in contiguous landscapes. We used this information to resolve a more accurate SDM for the koomal than that created from bioclimatic data alone. Specifically, we refined spatial coverages of remnant vegetation and dieback, to develop a set of variables that we combined with selected bioclimatic variables to construct models. We conclude that the utility value of an SDM can be enhanced and given greater resolution by identifying variables that reflect observed, species-specific responses to landscape parameters and incorporating these responses into the model.}, }
@article {pmid27104336, year = {2016}, author = {Ménard, R and Deshaies-Jacques, M and Gasset, N}, title = {A comparison of correlation-length estimation methods for the objective analysis of surface pollutants at Environment and Climate Change Canada.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {66}, number = {9}, pages = {874-895}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2016.1177620}, pmid = {27104336}, issn = {2162-2906}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*analysis ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Likelihood Functions ; *Models, Theoretical ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: An objective analysis is one of the main components of data assimilation. By combining observations with the output of a predictive model we combine the best features of each source of information: the complete spatial and temporal coverage provided by models, with a close representation of the truth provided by observations. The process of combining observations with a model output is called an analysis. To produce an analysis requires the knowledge of observation and model errors, as well as its spatial correlation. This paper is devoted to the development of methods of estimation of these error variances and the characteristic length-scale of the model error correlation for its operational use in the Canadian objective analysis system. We first argue in favor of using compact support correlation functions, and then introduce three estimation methods: the Hollingsworth-Lönnberg (HL) method in local and global form, the maximum likelihood method (ML), and the [Formula: see text] diagnostic method. We perform one-dimensional (1D) simulation studies where the error variance and true correlation length are known, and perform an estimation of both error variances and correlation length where both are non-uniform. We show that a local version of the HL method can capture accurately the error variances and correlation length at each observation site, provided that spatial variability is not too strong. However, the operational objective analysis requires only a single and globally valid correlation length. We examine whether any statistics of the local HL correlation lengths could be a useful estimate, or whether other global estimation methods such as by the global HL, ML, or [Formula: see text] should be used. We found in both 1D simulation and using real data that the ML method is able to capture physically significant aspects of the correlation length, while most other estimates give unphysical and larger length-scale values.<br><br>IMPLICATIONS: This paper describes a proposed improvement of the objective analysis of surface pollutants at Environment and Climate Change Canada (formerly known as Environment Canada). Objective analyses are essentially surface maps of air pollutants that are obtained by combining observations with an air quality model output, and are thought to provide a complete and more accurate representation of the air quality. The highlight of this study is an analysis of methods to estimate the model (or background) error correlation length-scale. The error statistics are an important and critical component to the analysis scheme.}, }
@article {pmid27103504, year = {2017}, author = {Rial-Lovera, K and Davies, WP and Cannon, ND}, title = {Implications of climate change predictions for UK cropping and prospects for possible mitigation: a review of challenges and potential responses.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {97}, number = {1}, pages = {17-32}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.7767}, pmid = {27103504}, issn = {1097-0010}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/chemistry/*growth &amp; development ; Soil/chemistry ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The UK, like the rest of the world, is confronting the impacts of climate change. Further changes are expected and they will have a profound effect on agriculture. Future crop production will take place against increasing CO2 levels and temperatures, decreasing water availability, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. This review contributes to research on agricultural practices for climate change, but with a more regional perspective. The present study explores climate change impacts on UK agriculture, particularly food crop production, and how to mitigate and build resilience to climate change by adopting and/or changing soil management practices, including fertilisation and tillage systems, new crop adoption and variety choice. Some mitigation can be adopted in the shorter term, such as changes in crop type and reduction in fertiliser use, but in other cases the options will need greater investment and longer adaptation period. This is the case for new crop variety development and deployment, and possible changes to soil cultivations. Uncertainty of future weather conditions, particularly extreme weather, also affect decision-making for adoption of practices by farmers to ensure more stable and sustainable production. Even when there is real potential for climate change mitigation, it can sometimes be more difficult to accomplish with certainty on-farm. Better future climate projections and long-term investments will be required to create more resilient agricultural systems in the UK in the face of climate change challenges. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid27102466, year = {2016}, author = {Kump, L}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. Mineral clues to past volcanism.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {352}, number = {6284}, pages = {411-412}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaf6612}, pmid = {27102466}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid27100790, year = {2016}, author = {Ostrowski, MF and Prosperi, JM and David, J}, title = {Potential Implications of Climate Change on Aegilops Species Distribution: Sympatry of These Crop Wild Relatives with the Major European Crop Triticum aestivum and Conservation Issues.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e0153974}, pmid = {27100790}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Europe ; Gene Flow ; *Models, Biological ; Poaceae/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; Species Specificity ; *Sympatry ; Triticum/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Gene flow from crop to wild relatives is a common phenomenon which can lead to reduced adaptation of the wild relatives to natural ecosystems and/or increased adaptation to agrosystems (weediness). With global warming, wild relative distributions will likely change, thus modifying the width and/or location of co-occurrence zones where crop-wild hybridization events could occur (sympatry). This study investigates current and 2050 projected changes in sympatry levels between cultivated wheat and six of the most common Aegilops species in Europe. Projections were generated using MaxEnt on presence-only data, bioclimatic variables, and considering two migration hypotheses and two 2050 climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Overall, a general decline in suitable climatic conditions for Aegilops species outside the European zone and a parallel increase in Europe were predicted. If no migration could occur, the decline was predicted to be more acute outside than within the European zone. The potential sympatry level in Europe by 2050 was predicted to increase at a higher rate than species richness, and most expansions were predicted to occur in three countries, which are currently among the top four wheat producers in Europe: Russia, France and Ukraine. The results are also discussed with regard to conservation issues of these crop wild relatives.}, }
@article {pmid27100667, year = {2016}, author = {Longobardi, P and Montenegro, A and Beltrami, H and Eby, M}, title = {Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e0153357}, pmid = {27100667}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forests ; *Models, Theoretical ; Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change.}, }
@article {pmid27100092, year = {2016}, author = {Seim, A and Omurova, G and Azisov, E and Musuraliev, K and Aliev, K and Tulyaganov, T and Nikolyai, L and Botman, E and Helle, G and Dorado Liñan, I and Jivcov, S and Linderholm, HW}, title = {Climate Change Increases Drought Stress of Juniper Trees in the Mountains of Central Asia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e0153888}, pmid = {27100092}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Asia ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Juniperus/*physiology ; *Stress, Physiological ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Assessments of climate change impacts on forests and their vitality are essential for semi-arid environments such as Central Asia, where the mountain regions belong to the globally important biodiversity hotspots. Alterations in species distribution or drought-induced tree mortality might not only result in a loss of biodiversity but also in a loss of other ecosystem services. Here, we evaluate spatial trends and patterns of the growth-climate relationship in a tree-ring network comprising 33 juniper sites from the northern Pamir-Alay and Tien Shan mountain ranges in eastern Uzbekistan and across Kyrgyzstan for the common period 1935-2011. Junipers growing at lower elevations are sensitive to summer drought, which has increased in intensity during the studied period. At higher elevations, juniper growth, previously favored by warm summer temperatures, has in the recent few decades become negatively affected by increasing summer aridity. Moreover, response shifts are observed during all seasons. Rising temperatures and alterations in precipitation patterns during the past eight decades can account for the observed increase in drought stress of junipers at all altitudes. The implications of our findings are vital for the application of adequate long-term measures of ecosystem conservation, but also for paleo-climatic approaches and coupled climate-vegetation model simulations for Central Asia.}, }
@article {pmid27100019, year = {2016}, author = {Segurado, P and Branco, P and Jauch, E and Neves, R and Ferreira, MT}, title = {Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {562}, number = {}, pages = {435-445}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.188}, pmid = {27100019}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fishes/*physiology ; Hydrology ; *Rivers ; *Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative effects on fish populations and assemblages.}, }
@article {pmid27100015, year = {2016}, author = {Zhang, Y and Dong, S and Gao, Q and Liu, S and Zhou, H and Ganjurjav, H and Wang, X}, title = {Climate change and human activities altered the diversity and composition of soil microbial community in alpine grasslands of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {562}, number = {}, pages = {353-363}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.221}, pmid = {27100015}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; Soil/chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Alpine ecosystems are known to be sensitive to climate change and human disturbances. However, the knowledge about the changes of their underground microbial communities is inadequate. We explored the diversity and structure of soil bacterial and fungal communities using Ilumina MiSeq sequencing in native alpine grasslands (i.e. the alpine meadow, alpine steppe) and cultivated grassland of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) under three-year treatments of overgrazing, warming and enhanced rainfall. Enhanced rainfall rather than warming significantly reduced soil microbial diversity in native alpine grasslands. Variable warming significantly reduced it in the cultivated grassland. Over 20% and 40% variations of microbial diversity could be explained by soil nutrients and moisture in the alpine meadow and cultivated grassland, separately. Soil microbial communities could be clustered into different groups according to different treatments in the alpine meadow and cultivated grassland. For the alpine steppe, with the lowest soil nutrients and moistures, <10% variations of microbial diversity was explained by soil properties; and the soil microbial communities among different treatments were similar. The soil microbial community in the cultivated grassland was varied from it in native grasslands. Over 50% variations of soil microbial communities among different treatments were explained by soil nutrients and moisture in each grassland type. Our results suggest that climate change and human activities strongly affected soil microbial communities by changing soil nutrients and moistures in alpine grassland ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid27099756, year = {2016}, author = {Leblond, M and St-Laurent, MH and Côté, SD}, title = {Caribou, water, and ice - fine-scale movements of a migratory arctic ungulate in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Movement ecology}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {14}, pmid = {27099756}, issn = {2051-3933}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Freshwater lakes and rivers of the Northern Hemisphere have been freezing increasingly later and thawing increasingly earlier during the last century. With reduced temporal periods during which ice conditions are favourable for locomotion, freshwater bodies could become impediments to the inter-patch movements, dispersion, or migration of terrestrial animals that use ice-covered lakes and rivers to move across their range. Studying the fine-scale responses of individuals to broad-scale changes in ice availability and phenology would help to understand how animals react to ongoing climate change, and contribute to the conservation and management of endangered species living in northern environments. Between 2007 and 2014, we equipped 96 migratory caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou from the Rivière-aux-Feuilles herd in northern Québec (Canada) with GPS telemetry collars and studied their space use. We measured contemporary (digital MODIS maps updated every 8 days, 2000-2014) and historical (annual observations, 1947-1985) variations in freshwater-ice availability and evaluated the concurrent responses of caribou to these changes.<br><br>RESULTS: Ice had a positive influence on caribou movement rates and directionality, and caribou selected ice and avoided water when moving across or in the vicinity of large water bodies. When ice was unavailable, caribou rarely swam across (6&#xa0;% of crossings) and frequently circumvented water bodies for several km. Although ice phenology did not change significantly during our study, climate projections indicated that ice availability could decrease considerably before the end of the century, generating a ~28&#xa0;% increase in distance travelled by caribou during the early spring and fall migrations.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that ice availability influenced the movements of a migratory arctic ungulate. Warmer air temperatures in the Arctic will undoubtedly modify the phenology of ice forming on freshwater lakes and rivers. If migratory caribou are unable to adjust the timing of their migrations, they could be forced to circumvent unfrozen water bodies more frequently and over broader areas, which may increase the distance, time, and energy they use to reach wintering areas. The long-term conservation of wide-ranging species will ultimately depend on our ability to identify the fine-scale behavioural reactions of individuals to broad-scale changes in climate and land use.}, }
@article {pmid27099620, year = {2016}, author = {McCairns, RJ and Smith, S and Sasaki, M and Bernatchez, L and Beheregaray, LB}, title = {The adaptive potential of subtropical rainbowfish in the face of climate change: heritability and heritable plasticity for the expression of candidate genes.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {531-545}, pmid = {27099620}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Whilst adaptation and phenotypic plasticity might buffer species against habitat degradation associated with global climate change, few studies making such claims also possess the necessary and sufficient data to support them. Doing so requires demonstration of heritable variation in traits affecting fitness under new environmental conditions. We address this issue using an emerging aquatic system to study adaptation to climate change, the crimson-spotted rainbowfish (Melanotaenia duboulayi), a freshwater species from a region of eastern Australia projected to be affected by marked temperature increases. Captive born M. duboulayi of known pedigree were used to assess the long-term effects of contemporary and 2070-projected summer temperatures on the expression of genes previously identified in a climate change transcriptomics (RNA-Seq) experiment. Nearly all genes responded to increasing temperature. Significant additive genetic variance explained a moderate proportion of transcriptional variation for all genes. Most genes also showed broad-sense genetic variation in transcriptional plasticity. Additionally, molecular pathways of candidate genes co-occur with genes inferred to be under climate-mediated selection in wild M. duboulayi populations. Together, these results indicate the presence of existing variation in important physiological traits, and the potential for adaptive responses to a changing thermal environment.}, }
@article {pmid27095136, year = {2016}, author = {Desmond, S}, title = {Implementing climate change mitigation in health services: the importance of context.}, journal = {Journal of health services research &amp; policy}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {257-262}, doi = {10.1177/1355819616645373}, pmid = {27095136}, issn = {1758-1060}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Health Personnel ; *Health Services ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Academic interest in strategies to reduce the impact of health services on climate change is quickening. Research has largely focused on local innovations with little consideration of the contextual and systemic elements that influence sustainable development across health systems. A realistic framework specifically to guide decision-making by health care providers is still needed. To address this deficit, the literature is explored in relation to health services and climate change mitigation strategies, and the contextual factors that influence efforts to mitigate climate effects in health service delivery environments are highlighted. A conceptual framework is proposed that offers a model for the pursuit of sustainable development practice in health services. A set of propositions is advanced to provide a systems approach to assist decision-making by decoding the challenges faced in implementing sustainable health services. This has important implications for health care providers, funders and legislators since the financial, policy and regulatory environment of health care, along with its leadership and models of care generally conflict with carbon literacy and climate change mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid27093125, year = {2016}, author = {Zaharescu, DG and Hooda, PS and Burghelea, CI and Polyakov, V and Palanca-Soler, A}, title = {Climate change enhances the mobilisation of naturally occurring metals in high altitude environments.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {560-561}, number = {}, pages = {73-81}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.002}, pmid = {27093125}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; *Altitude ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Metals/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Manmade climate change has expressed a plethora of complex effects on Earth's biogeochemical compartments. Climate change may also affect the mobilisation of natural metal sources, with potential ecological consequences beyond mountains' geographical limits; however, this question has remained largely unexplored. We investigated this by analysing a number of key climatic factors in relationship with trace metal accumulation in the sediment core of a Pyrenean lake. The sediment metal contents showed increasing accumulation trend over time, and their levels varied in step with recent climate change. The findings further revealed that a rise in the elevation of freezing level, a general increase in the frequency of drier periods, changes in the frequency of winter freezing days and a reducing snow cover since the early 1980s, together are responsible for the observed variability and augmented accumulation of trace metals. Our results provide clear evidence of increased mobilisation of natural metal sources - an overlooked effect of climate change on the environment. With further alterations in climate equilibrium predicted over the ensuing decades, it is likely that mountain catchments in metamorphic areas may become significant sources of trace metals, with potentially harmful consequences for the wider environment.}, }
@article {pmid27090814, year = {2016}, author = {Han, X and Sun, X and Wang, C and Wu, M and Dong, D and Zhong, T and Thies, JE and Wu, W}, title = {Mitigating methane emission from paddy soil with rice-straw biochar amendment under projected climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {24731}, pmid = {27090814}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Elevated global temperatures and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with climate change will exert profound effects on rice cropping systems, particularly on their greenhouse gas emitting potential. Incorporating biochar into paddy soil has been shown previously to reduce methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice under ambient temperature and CO2. We examined the ability of rice straw-derived biochar to reduce CH4 emission from paddy soil under elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations expected in the future. Adding biochar to paddy soil reduced CH4 emission under ambient conditions and significantly reduced emissions by 39.5% (ranging from 185.4 mg kg(-1) dry weight soil, dws season(-1) to 112.2 mg kg(-1) dws season(-1)) under simultaneously elevated temperature and CO2. Reduced CH4 release was mainly attributable to the decreased activity of methanogens along with the increased CH4 oxidation activity and pmoA gene abundance of methanotrophs. Our findings highlight the valuable services of biochar amendment for CH4 control from paddy soil in a future that will be shaped by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27089453, year = {2016}, author = {Joy, EA and Horne, BD and Bergstrom, S}, title = {Addressing Air Quality and Health as a Strategy to Combat Climate Change.}, journal = {Annals of internal medicine}, volume = {164}, number = {9}, pages = {626-627}, doi = {10.7326/M16-0507}, pmid = {27089453}, issn = {1539-3704}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid27089232, year = {2016}, author = {Crowley, RA and , }, title = {Climate Change and Health: A Position Paper of the American College of Physicians.}, journal = {Annals of internal medicine}, volume = {164}, number = {9}, pages = {608-610}, doi = {10.7326/M15-2766}, pmid = {27089232}, issn = {1539-3704}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Global Health ; Health Care Sector ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Physician's Role ; *Public Health ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change could have a devastating effect on human and environmental health. Potential effects of climate change on human health include higher rates of respiratory and heat-related illness, increased prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne diseases, food and water insecurity, and malnutrition. Persons who are elderly, sick, or poor are especially vulnerable to these potential consequences. Addressing climate change could have substantial benefits to human health. In this position paper, the American College of Physicians (ACP) recommends that physicians and the broader health care community throughout the world engage in environmentally sustainable practices that reduce carbon emissions; support efforts to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change; and educate the public, their colleagues, their community, and lawmakers about the health risks posed by climate change. Tackling climate change is an opportunity to dramatically improve human health and avert dire environmental outcomes, and ACP believes that physicians can play a role in achieving this goal.}, }
@article {pmid27088733, year = {2016}, author = {Tong, MX and Hansen, A and Hanson-Easey, S and Xiang, J and Cameron, S and Liu, Q and Liu, X and Sun, Y and Weinstein, P and Han, GS and Williams, C and Bi, P}, title = {Perceptions of capacity for infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenges of dengue fever in the face of climate change: A survey among CDC staff in Guangdong Province, China.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {148}, number = {}, pages = {295-302}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2016.03.043}, pmid = {27088733}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Adult ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases ; Dengue/*prevention &amp; control ; Female ; *Government Agencies ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Perception ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is an important climate-sensitive mosquito-borne viral disease that poses a risk to half the world's population. The disease is a major public health issue in China where in 2014 a major outbreak occurred in Guangdong Province. This study aims to gauge health professionals' perceptions about the capacity of infectious disease control and prevention to meet the challenge of dengue fever in the face of climate change in Guangdong Province, China.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was administered among staff in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCs) in Guangdong Province. Data analysis was undertaken using descriptive methods and logistic regression.<br><br>RESULTS: In total, 260 questionnaires were completed. Most participants (80.7%) thought climate change would have a negative effect on population health, and 98.4% of participants reported dengue fever had emerged or re-emerged in China in recent years. Additionally, 74.9% of them indicated that the capability of the CDCs to detect infectious disease outbreak/epidemic at an early stage was excellent; 86.3% indicated laboratories could provide diagnostic support rapidly; and 83.1% believed levels of current staff would be adequate in the event of a major outbreak. Logistic regression analysis showed higher levels of CDCs were perceived to have better capacity for infectious disease control and prevention. Only 26.8% of participants thought they had a good understanding of climate change, and most (85.4%) thought they needed more information about the health impacts of climate change. Most surveyed staff suggested the following strategies to curb the public health impact of infectious diseases in relation to climate change: primary prevention measures, strengthening the monitoring of infectious diseases, the ability to actively forecast disease outbreaks by early warning systems, and more funding for public health education programs.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Vigilant disease and vector surveillance, preventive practice and health promotion programs will likely be significant in addressing the threat of dengue fever in the future. Further efforts are needed to strengthen the awareness of climate change among health professionals, and to promote relevant actions to minimize the health burden of infectious diseases in a changing climate. Results will be critical for policy makers facing the current and future challenges associated with infectious disease prevention and control in China.}, }
@article {pmid27087933, year = {2016}, author = {Jueterbock, A and Smolina, I and Coyer, JA and Hoarau, G}, title = {The fate of the Arctic seaweed Fucus distichus under climate change: an ecological niche modeling approach.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {1712-1724}, pmid = {27087933}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Rising temperatures are predicted to melt all perennial ice cover in the Arctic by the end of this century, thus opening up suitable habitat for temperate and subarctic species. Canopy-forming seaweeds provide an ideal system to predict the potential impact of climate-change on rocky-shore ecosystems, given their direct dependence on temperature and their key role in the ecological system. Our primary objective was to predict the climate-change induced range-shift of Fucus distichus, the dominant canopy-forming macroalga in the Arctic and subarctic rocky intertidal. More specifically, we asked: which Arctic/subarctic and cold-temperate shores of the northern hemisphere will display the greatest distributional change of F. distichus and how will this affect niche overlap with seaweeds from temperate regions? We used the program MAXENT to develop correlative ecological niche models with dominant range-limiting factors and 169 occurrence records. Using three climate-change scenarios, we projected habitat suitability of F. distichus - and its niche overlap with three dominant temperate macroalgae - until year 2200. Maximum sea surface temperature was identified as the most important factor in limiting the fundamental niche of F. distichus. Rising temperatures were predicted to have low impact on the species' southern distribution limits, but to shift its northern distribution limits poleward into the high Arctic. In cold-temperate to subarctic regions, new areas of niche overlap were predicted between F. distichus and intertidal macroalgae immigrating from the south. While climate-change threatens intertidal seaweeds in warm-temperate regions, seaweed meadows will likely flourish in the Arctic intertidal. Although this enriches biodiversity and opens up new seaweed-harvesting grounds, it will also trigger unpredictable changes in the structure and functioning of the Arctic intertidal ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid27083088, year = {2016}, author = {Vezér, MA}, title = {Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis.}, journal = {Studies in history and philosophy of science}, volume = {56}, number = {}, pages = {95-102}, doi = {10.1016/j.shpsa.2016.01.004}, pmid = {27083088}, issn = {0039-3681}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Knowledge ; Meteorology/*methods ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {To study climate change, scientists employ computer models, which approximate target systems with various levels of skill. Given the imperfection of climate models, how do scientists use simulations to generate knowledge about the causes of observed climate change? Addressing a similar question in the context of biological modelling, Levins (1966) proposed an account grounded in robustness analysis. Recent philosophical discussions dispute the confirmatory power of robustness, raising the question of how the results of computer modelling studies contribute to the body of evidence supporting hypotheses about climate change. Expanding on Staley's (2004) distinction between evidential strength and security, and Lloyd's (2015) argument connecting variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, I address this question with respect to recent challenges to the epistemology robustness analysis. Applying this epistemology to case studies of climate change, I argue that, despite imperfections in climate models, and epistemic constraints on variety-of-evidence reasoning and robustness analysis, this framework accounts for the strength and security of evidence supporting climatological inferences, including the finding that global warming is occurring and its primary causes are anthropogenic.}, }
@article {pmid27081888, year = {2016}, author = {Chrétien, JP}, title = {Adapting to Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Department of Defense.}, journal = {Health security}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {86-92}, doi = {10.1089/hs.2016.0019}, pmid = {27081888}, issn = {2326-5108}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases ; Disease Vectors ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Heat Stroke/therapy ; Military Personnel ; United States ; *United States Department of Defense ; }, abstract = {The Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a threat to its mission and recently issued policy to implement climate change adaptation measures. However, the DoD has not conducted a comprehensive assessment of health-related climate change effects. To catalyze the needed assessment--a first step toward a comprehensive DoD climate change adaptation plan for health--this article discusses the DoD relevance of 3 selected climate change impacts: heat injuries, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather that could lead to natural disasters. The author uses these examples to propose a comprehensive approach to planning for health-related climate change impacts in the DoD.}, }
@article {pmid27081069, year = {2016}, author = {Ainsworth, TD and Heron, SF and Ortiz, JC and Mumby, PJ and Grech, A and Ogawa, D and Eakin, CM and Leggat, W}, title = {Climate change disables coral bleaching protection on the Great Barrier Reef.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {352}, number = {6283}, pages = {338-342}, doi = {10.1126/science.aac7125}, pmid = {27081069}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/cytology/*physiology ; Cell Count ; Cell Death ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Dinoflagellida/cytology/physiology ; *Heat-Shock Response ; Hot Temperature ; Photosynthesis ; Pigments, Biological/*physiology ; Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Coral bleaching events threaten the sustainability of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Here we show that bleaching events of the past three decades have been mitigated by induced thermal tolerance of reef-building corals, and this protective mechanism is likely to be lost under near-future climate change scenarios. We show that 75% of past thermal stress events have been characterized by a temperature trajectory that subjects corals to a protective, sub-bleaching stress, before reaching temperatures that cause bleaching. Such conditions confer thermal tolerance, decreasing coral cell mortality and symbiont loss during bleaching by over 50%. We find that near-future increases in local temperature of as little as 0.5°C result in this protective mechanism being lost, which may increase the rate of degradation of the GBR.}, }
@article {pmid27081055, year = {2016}, author = {Burke, M and Craxton, M and Kolstad, CD and Onda, C and Allcott, H and Baker, E and Barrage, L and Carson, R and Gillingham, K and Graff-Zivin, J and Greenstone, M and Hallegatte, S and Hanemann, WM and Heal, G and Hsiang, S and Jones, B and Kelly, DL and Kopp, R and Kotchen, M and Mendelsohn, R and Meng, K and Metcalf, G and Moreno-Cruz, J and Pindyck, R and Rose, S and Rudik, I and Stock, J and Tol, RS}, title = {CLIMATE ECONOMICS. Opportunities for advances in climate change economics.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {352}, number = {6283}, pages = {292-293}, doi = {10.1126/science.aad9634}, pmid = {27081055}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid27077913, year = {2016}, author = {Daoud, A and Halleröd, B and Guha-Sapir, D}, title = {What Is the Association between Absolute Child Poverty, Poor Governance, and Natural Disasters? A Global Comparison of Some of the Realities of Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e0153296}, pmid = {27077913}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Algorithms ; Child ; Child Welfare/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Developing Countries ; *Disasters ; Female ; Government Programs/standards/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Human Rights/standards/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Poverty/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Regression Analysis ; }, abstract = {The paper explores the degree to which exposure to natural disasters and poor governance (quality of governance) is associated with absolute child poverty in sixty-seven middle- and low-income countries. The data is representative for about 2.8 billion of the world´s population. Institutionalist tend to argue that many of society's ills, including poverty, derive from fragile or inefficient institutions. However, our findings show that although increasing quality of government tends to be associated with less poverty, the negative effects of natural disasters on child poverty are independent of a country´s institutional efficiency. Increasing disaster victims (killed and affected) is associated with higher rates of child poverty. A child´s estimated odds ratio to be in a state of absolute poverty increases by about a factor of 5.7 [95% CI: 1.7 to 18.7] when the average yearly toll of disasters in the child´s country increases by one on a log-10 scale. Better governance correlates with less child poverty, but it does not modify the correlation between child poverty and natural disasters. The results are based on hierarchical regression models that partition the variance into three parts: child, household, and country. The models were cross-sectional and based on observational data from the Demographic Health Survey and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, which were collected at the beginning of the twenty-first millennium. The Sustainable Development Goals are a principle declaration to halt climate change, but they lack a clear plan on how the burden of this change should be shared by the global community. Based on our results, we suggest that the development agencies should take this into account and to articulate more equitable global policies to protect the most vulnerable, specifically children.}, }
@article {pmid27074531, year = {2016}, author = {Soimakallio, S and Saikku, L and Valsta, L and Pingoud, K}, title = {Climate Change Mitigation Challenge for Wood Utilization-The Case of Finland.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {50}, number = {10}, pages = {5127-5134}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6b00122}, pmid = {27074531}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Finland ; Forests ; Wood/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The urgent need to mitigate climate change invokes both opportunities and challenges for forest biomass utilization. Fossil fuels can be substituted by using wood products in place of alternative materials and energy, but wood harvesting reduces forest carbon sink and processing of wood products requires material and energy inputs. We assessed the extended life cycle carbon emissions considering substitution impacts for various wood utilization scenarios over 100 years from 2010 onward for Finland. The scenarios were based on various but constant wood utilization structures reflecting current and anticipated mix of wood utilization activities. We applied stochastic simulation to deal with the uncertainty in a number of input variables required. According to our analysis, the wood utilization decrease net carbon emissions with a probability lower than 40% for each of the studied scenarios. Furthermore, large emission reductions were exceptionally unlikely. The uncertainty of the results were influenced clearly the most by the reduction in the forest carbon sink. There is a significant trade-off between avoiding emissions through fossil fuel substitution and reduction in forest carbon sink due to wood harvesting. This creates a major challenge for forest management practices and wood utilization activities in responding to ambitious climate change mitigation targets.}, }
@article {pmid27073017, year = {2016}, author = {Santini, L and Cornulier, T and Bullock, JM and Palmer, SC and White, SM and Hodgson, JA and Bocedi, G and Travis, JM}, title = {A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data: how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {2415-2424}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13271}, pmid = {27073017}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Mammals ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Estimating population spread rates across multiple species is vital for projecting biodiversity responses to climate change. A major challenge is to parameterise spread models for many species. We introduce an approach that addresses this challenge, coupling a trait-based analysis with spatial population modelling to project spread rates for 15 000 virtual mammals with life histories that reflect those seen in the real world. Covariances among life-history traits are estimated from an extensive terrestrial mammal data set using Bayesian inference. We elucidate the relative roles of different life-history traits in driving modelled spread rates, demonstrating that any one alone will be a poor predictor. We also estimate that around 30% of mammal species have potential spread rates slower than the global mean velocity of climate change. This novel trait-space-demographic modelling approach has broad applicability for tackling many key ecological questions for which we have the models but are hindered by data availability.}, }
@article {pmid27071667, year = {2016}, author = {Rehm, EM and Feeley, KJ}, title = {Seedling transplants reveal species-specific responses of high-elevation tropical treeline trees to climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {181}, number = {4}, pages = {1233-1242}, pmid = {27071667}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Forests ; *Seedlings ; Species Specificity ; *Trees ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The elevations at which tropical treelines occur are believed to represent the point where low mean temperatures limit the growth of upright woody trees. Consequently, tropical treelines are predicted to shift to higher elevations with global warming. However, treelines throughout the tropics have remained stationary despite increasing global mean temperatures. The goal of the study reported here was to build a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of mean temperature, low-temperature extremes, shading, and their interactions on seedling survival at tropical treelines. We conducted a seedling transplant study using three dominant canopy-forming treeline species in the southern tropical Andes. We found species-specific differences and contrasting responses in seedling survival to changes in mean temperature. The most abundant naturally occurring species at the seedling stage outside the treeline, Weinmannia fagaroides, showed a negative relationship between the survival of transplanted seedlings and mean temperature, the opposite of a priori expectations. Conversely, Clethra cuneata showed increased survival at higher mean temperatures, but survival also increased with higher absolute low temperatures and the presence of shade. Finally, the survival of Gynoxys nitida seedlings was insensitive to temperature but increased under shade. These findings show that multiple factors can determine the upper distributional limit of species forming the current tropical treeline. As such, predictions of future local and regional tropical treeline shifts may need to consider several factors beyond changes in mean temperature. If the treeline remains stationary and cloud forests are unable to expand into higher elevations, there may be severe species loss in this biodiversity hotspot.}, }
@article {pmid27070383, year = {2016}, author = {Shadkam, S and Ludwig, F and van Vliet, MTH and Pastor, A and Kabat, P}, title = {Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {559}, number = {}, pages = {317-325}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.190}, pmid = {27070383}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.7·10(9)m(3) water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake.}, }
@article {pmid27066906, year = {2016}, author = {Battilani, P and Toscano, P and Van der Fels-Klerx, HJ and Moretti, A and Camardo Leggieri, M and Brera, C and Rortais, A and Goumperis, T and Robinson, T}, title = {Aflatoxin B1 contamination in maize in Europe increases due to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {24328}, pmid = {27066906}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Aflatoxin B1/*analysis ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Food Contamination ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Temperature ; Zea mays/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been reported as a driver for emerging food and feed safety issues worldwide and its expected impact on the presence of mycotoxins in food and feed is of great concern. Aflatoxins have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins; hence, the maximal concentration in agricultural food and feed products and their commodities is regulated worldwide. The possible change in patterns of aflatoxin occurrence in crops due to climate change is a matter of concern that may require anticipatory actions. The aim of this study was to predict aflatoxin contamination in maize and wheat crops, within the next 100 years, under a +2 °C and +5 °C climate change scenario, applying a modelling approach. Europe was virtually covered by a net, 50 × 50 km grids, identifying 2254 meshes with a central point each. Climate data were generated for each point, linked to predictive models and predictions were run consequently. Aflatoxin B1 is predicted to become a food safety issue in maize in Europe, especially in the +2 °C scenario, the most probable scenario of climate change expected for the next years. These results represent a supporting tool to reinforce aflatoxin management and to prevent human and animal exposure.}, }
@article {pmid27066290, year = {2016}, author = {Ngarakana-Gwasira, ET and Bhunu, CP and Masocha, M and Mashonjowa, E}, title = {Assessing the Role of Climate Change in Malaria Transmission in Africa.}, journal = {Malaria research and treatment}, volume = {2016}, number = {}, pages = {7104291}, pmid = {27066290}, issn = {2090-8075}, abstract = {The sensitivity of vector borne diseases like malaria to climate continues to raise considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease dynamics. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission dynamics of malaria. The reproduction number obtained is applied to gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for baseline climate and future climate with aid of GIS. As a result of climate change, malaria burden is likely to increase in the tropics, the highland regions, and East Africa and along the northern limit of falciparum malaria. Falciparum malaria will spread into the African highlands; however it is likely to die out at the southern limit of the disease.}, }
@article {pmid27064486, year = {2016}, author = {Deryugina, T and Shurchkov, O}, title = {The Effect of Information Provision on Public Consensus about Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e0151469}, pmid = {27064486}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Consensus ; *Geographic Information Systems ; Humans ; *Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {Despite over 20 years of research and scientific consensus on the topic, climate change continues to be a politically polarizing issue. We conducted a survey experiment to test whether providing the public with information on the exact extent of scientific agreement about the occurrence and causes of climate change affects respondents' own beliefs and bridges the divide between conservatives and liberals. First, we show that the public significantly underestimated the extent of the scientific consensus. We then find that those given concrete information about scientists' views were more likely to report believing that climate change was already underway and that it was caused by humans. However, their beliefs about the necessity of making policy decisions and their willingness to donate money to combat climate change were not affected. Information provision affected liberals, moderates, and conservatives similarly, implying that the gap in beliefs between liberals and conservatives is not likely to be bridged by information treatments similar to the one we study. Finally, we conducted a 6-month follow-up with respondents to see if the treatment effect persisted; the results were statistically inconclusive.}, }
@article {pmid27063739, year = {2016}, author = {Stensgaard, AS and Booth, M and Nikulin, G and McCreesh, N}, title = {Combining process-based and correlative models improves predictions of climate change effects on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa.}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {11}, number = {1 Suppl}, pages = {406}, doi = {10.4081/gh.2016.406}, pmid = {27063739}, issn = {1970-7096}, support = {MR/N014693/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; Animals ; Biomphalaria ; *Climate Change ; Endemic Diseases ; *Models, Statistical ; Schistosoma mansoni/*physiology ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/*epidemiology/*transmission ; }, abstract = {Currently, two broad types of approach for predicting the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be distinguished: i) empirical-statistical (correlative) approaches that use statistical models of relationships between vector and/or pathogen presence and environmental factors; and ii) process-based (mechanistic) approaches that seek to simulate detailed biological or epidemiological processes that explicitly describe system behavior. Both have advantages and disadvantages, but it is generally acknowledged that both approaches have value in assessing the response of species in general to climate change. Here, we combine a previously developed dynamic, agentbased model of the temperature-sensitive stages of the Schistosoma mansoni and intermediate host snail lifecycles, with a statistical model of snail habitat suitability for eastern Africa. Baseline model output compared to empirical prevalence data suggest that the combined model performs better than a temperature-driven model alone, and highlights the importance of including snail habitat suitability when modeling schistosomiasis risk. There was general agreement among models in predicting changes in risk, with 24-36% of the eastern Africa region predicted to experience an increase in risk of up-to 20% as a result of increasing temperatures over the next 50 years. Vice versa the models predicted a general decrease in risk in 30-37% of the study area. The snail habitat suitability models also suggest that anthropogenically altered habitat play a vital role for the current distribution of the intermediate snail host, and hence we stress the importance of accounting for land use changes in models of future changes in schistosomiasis risk.}, }
@article {pmid27063736, year = {2016}, author = {Leedale, J and Tompkins, AM and Caminade, C and Jones, AE and Nikulin, G and Morse, AP}, title = {Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty.}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {11}, number = {1 Suppl}, pages = {393}, doi = {10.4081/gh.2016.393}, pmid = {27063736}, issn = {1970-7096}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology/*transmission ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Temperature ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.}, }
@article {pmid27059666, year = {2016}, author = {Johnson, GJ}, title = {Effects of climate change on older Australians and chronic disease--are we prepared for the increased burden?.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {196}, doi = {10.1111/1753-6405.12513}, pmid = {27059666}, issn = {1753-6405}, mesh = {Aged ; *Aging ; Australia ; *Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid27058059, year = {2016}, author = {Levy, K and Woster, AP and Goldstein, RS and Carlton, EJ}, title = {Untangling the Impacts of Climate Change on Waterborne Diseases: a Systematic Review of Relationships between Diarrheal Diseases and Temperature, Rainfall, Flooding, and Drought.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {50}, number = {10}, pages = {4905-4922}, pmid = {27058059}, issn = {1520-5851}, support = {K01 AI103544/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R21 TW009032/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Floods ; Humans ; *Temperature ; Waterborne Diseases ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is expected to affect waterborne enteric diseases, yet to date there has been no comprehensive, systematic review of the epidemiological literature examining the relationship between meteorological conditions and diarrheal diseases. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Collection for studies describing the relationship between diarrheal diseases and four meteorological conditions that are expected to increase with climate change: ambient temperature, heavy rainfall, drought, and flooding. We synthesized key areas of agreement and evaluated the biological plausibility of these findings, drawing from a diverse, multidisciplinary evidence base. We identified 141 articles that met our inclusion criteria. Key areas of agreement include a positive association between ambient temperature and diarrheal diseases, with the exception of viral diarrhea and an increase in diarrheal disease following heavy rainfall and flooding events. Insufficient evidence was available to evaluate the effects of drought on diarrhea. There is evidence to support the biological plausibility of these associations, but publication bias is an ongoing concern. Future research evaluating whether interventions, such as improved water and sanitation access, modify risk would further our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on diarrheal diseases and aid in the prioritization of adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid27057131, year = {2015}, author = {Brown, HE and Young, A and Lega, J and Andreadis, TG and Schurich, J and Comrie, A}, title = {Projection of Climate Change Influences on U.S. West Nile Virus Vectors.}, journal = {Earth interactions}, volume = {19}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {27057131}, issn = {1087-3562}, support = {K01 AI101224/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. We describe a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vector-borne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, we estimate mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location, however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, mid-summer decreases in abundance may be off-set by shorter extrinsic incubation periods resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.}, }
@article {pmid27054192, year = {2016}, author = {Uehleke, R}, title = {Data of a willingness to pay survey for national climate change mitigation policies in Germany.}, journal = {Data in brief}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {760-762}, doi = {10.1016/j.dib.2016.03.013}, pmid = {27054192}, issn = {2352-3409}, abstract = {The dataset includes responses from a contingent valuation study about the national climate change mitigation policies in Germany. The online survey was carried out in the spring of 2014. It assesses the willingness to pay for an increase of the national CO2 reduction target by 10 percentage points, which closely represents Germany׳s climate change mitigation strategy. Respondents were randomly allocated to one of the following three question formats: The dichotomous choice referendum, the dissonance minimizing referendum and the two-sided payment ladder. The data can be used to investigate the influence of alternative statistical approaches on the willingness to pay measures and their comparison across question formats.}, }
@article {pmid27053746, year = {2016}, author = {Saupe, EE and Hendricks, JR and Portell, RW and Dowsett, HJ and Haywood, A and Hunter, SJ and Lieberman, BS}, title = {Correction to 'Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years'.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {283}, number = {1828}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2016.0654}, pmid = {27053746}, issn = {1471-2954}, }
@article {pmid27049977, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {Call for nurses to speak up about how climate change is affecting their work.}, journal = {Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987)}, volume = {30}, number = {32}, pages = {8}, doi = {10.7748/ns.30.32.8.s5}, pmid = {27049977}, issn = {2047-9018}, }
@article {pmid27049012, year = {2016}, author = {Kabir, MI and Rahman, MB and Smith, W and Lusha, MA and Milton, AH}, title = {Climate change and health in Bangladesh: a baseline cross-sectional survey.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {29609}, pmid = {27049012}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Adult ; Bangladesh/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Health Expenditures/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mortality ; Poverty ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Vulnerable Populations/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Bangladesh is facing the unavoidable challenge of adaptation to climate change. However, very little is known in relation to climate change and health. This article provides information on potential climate change impact on health, magnitude of climate-sensitive diseases, and baseline scenarios of health systems to climate variability and change.<br><br>DESIGN: A cross-sectional study using multistage cluster sampling framework was conducted in 2012 among 6,720 households of 224 rural villages in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh. Information was obtained from head of the households using a pretested, interviewer-administered, structured questionnaire. A total of 6,720 individuals participated in the study with written, informed consent.<br><br>RESULTS: The majority of the respondents were from the low-income vulnerable group (60% farmers or day labourers) with an average of 30 years' stay in their locality. Most of them (96%) had faced extreme weather events, 45% of people had become homeless and displaced for a mean duration of 38 days in the past 10 years. Almost all of the respondents (97.8%) believe that health care expenditure increased after the extreme weather events. Mean annual total health care expenditure was 6,555 Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) (1 USD=77 BDT in 2015) and exclusively out of pocket of the respondents. Incidence of dengue was 1.29 (95% CI 0.65-2.56) and malaria 13.86 (95% CI 6.00-32.01) per 1,000 adult population for 12 months preceding the data collection. Incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia among under-five children of the households for the preceding month was 10.3% (95% CI 9.16-11.66) and 7.3% (95% CI 6.35-8.46), respectively.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this survey indicate that climate change has a potential adverse impact on human health in Bangladesh. The magnitude of malaria, dengue, childhood diarrhoea, and pneumonia was high among the vulnerable communities. Community-based adaptation strategy for health could be beneficial to minimise climate change attributed health burden of Bangladesh.}, }
@article {pmid27047604, year = {2016}, author = {Yoho, RA and Vanmali, BH}, title = {Controversy in Biology Classrooms-Citizen Science Approaches to Evolution and Applications to Climate Change Discussions.}, journal = {Journal of microbiology &amp; biology education}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {110-114}, pmid = {27047604}, issn = {1935-7877}, abstract = {The biological sciences encompass topics considered controversial by the American public, such as evolution and climate change. We believe that the development of climate change education in the biology classroom is better informed by an understanding of the history of the teaching of evolution. A common goal for science educators should be to engender a greater respect for and appreciation of science among students while teaching specific content knowledge. Citizen science has emerged as a viable yet underdeveloped method for engaging students of all ages in key scientific issues that impact society through authentic data-driven scientific research. Where successful, citizen science may open avenues of communication and engagement with the scientific process that would otherwise be more difficult to achieve. Citizen science projects demonstrate versatility in education and the ability to test hypotheses by collecting large amounts of often publishable data. We find a great possibility for science education research in the incorporation of citizen science projects in curriculum, especially with respect to "hot topics" of socioscientific debate based on our review of the findings of other authors. Journal of Microbiology &amp; Biology Education.}, }
@article {pmid27044783, year = {2016}, author = {Low, WY and Binns, C}, title = {Climate Change: A Public Health Priority.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {28}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {4S}, doi = {10.1177/1010539516639695}, pmid = {27044783}, issn = {1941-2479}, }
@article {pmid27044109, year = {2016}, author = {Hume, BC and Voolstra, CR and Arif, C and D'Angelo, C and Burt, JA and Eyal, G and Loya, Y and Wiedenmann, J}, title = {Ancestral genetic diversity associated with the rapid spread of stress-tolerant coral symbionts in response to Holocene climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {16}, pages = {4416-4421}, pmid = {27044109}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {311179/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; Dinoflagellida/*genetics ; *Ecosystem ; *Genetic Variation ; Oceans and Seas ; *Salinity ; *Stress, Physiological ; *Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Coral communities in the Persian/Arabian Gulf (PAG) withstand unusually high salinity levels and regular summer temperature maxima of up to ∼35 °C that kill conspecifics elsewhere. Due to the recent formation of the PAG and its subsequent shift to a hot climate, these corals have had only <6,000 y to adapt to these extreme conditions and can therefore inform on how coral reefs may respond to global warming. One key to coral survival in the world's warmest reefs are symbioses with a newly discovered alga,Symbiodinium thermophilum Currently, it is unknown whether this symbiont originated elsewhere or emerged from unexpectedly fast evolution catalyzed by the extreme environment. Analyzing genetic diversity of symbiotic algae across >5,000 km of the PAG, the Gulf of Oman, and the Red Sea coastline, we show thatS. thermophilumis a member of a highly diverse, ancient group of symbionts cryptically distributed outside the PAG. We argue that the adjustment to temperature extremes by PAG corals was facilitated by the positive selection of preadapted symbionts. Our findings suggest that maintaining the largest possible pool of potentially stress-tolerant genotypes by protecting existing biodiversity is crucial to promote rapid adaptation to present-day climate change, not only for coral reefs, but for ecosystems in general.}, }
@article {pmid27044049, year = {2016}, author = {Rasheed, S and Siddique, AK and Sharmin, T and Hasan, AM and Hanifi, SM and Iqbal, M and Bhuiya, A}, title = {Salt Intake and Health Risk in Climate Change Vulnerable Coastal Bangladesh: What Role Do Beliefs and Practices Play?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {e0152783}, pmid = {27044049}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; *Awareness ; Bangladesh/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Culture ; Female ; *Food Preferences ; Humans ; Hypertension/chemically induced/epidemiology ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Risk Factors ; *Sodium Chloride, Dietary/administration &amp; dosage/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: High salt consumption is an important risk factor of elevated blood pressure. In Bangladesh about 20 million people are at high risk of hypertension due to climate change induced saline intrusion in water. The objective of this study is to assess beliefs, perceptions, and practices associated with salt consumption in coastal Bangladesh.<br><br>METHODS: The study was conducted in Chakaria, Bangladesh between April-June 2011. It was a cross sectional mixed method study. For the qualitative study 6 focus group discussions, 8 key informant interviews, 60 free listing exercises, 20 ranking exercises and 10 observations were conducted. 400 adults were randomly selected for quantitative survey. For analysis we used SPSS for quantitative data, and Anthropac and Nvivo for qualitative data.<br><br>RESULTS: Salt was described as an essential component of food with strong cultural and religious roots. People described both health benefits and risks related to salt intake. The overall risk perception regarding excessive salt consumption was low and respondents believed that the cooking process can render the salt harmless. Respondents were aware that salt is added in many foods even if they do not taste salty but did not recognize that salt can occur naturally in both foods and water.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In the study community people had low awareness of the risks associated with excess salt consumption and salt reduction strategies were not high in their agenda. The easy access to and low cost of salt as well as unrecognised presence of salt in drinking water has created an environment conducive to excess salt consumption. It is important to design general messages related to salt reduction and test tailored strategies especially for those at high risk of hypertension.}, }
@article {pmid27038309, year = {2016}, author = {Caldwell, PV and Miniat, CF and Elliott, KJ and Swank, WT and Brantley, ST and Laseter, SH}, title = {Declining water yield from forested mountain watersheds in response to climate change and forest mesophication.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {9}, pages = {2997-3012}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13309}, pmid = {27038309}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Appalachian Region ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; North Carolina ; Trees ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change and forest disturbances are threatening the ability of forested mountain watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Here, we used 76 years of water yield, climate, and field plot vegetation measurements in six unmanaged, reference watersheds in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, USA to determine whether water yield has changed over time, and to examine and attribute the causal mechanisms of change. We found that annual water yield increased in some watersheds from 1938 to the mid-1970s by as much as 55%, but this was followed by decreases up to 22% by 2013. Changes in forest evapotranspiration were consistent with, but opposite in direction to the changes in water yield, with decreases in evapotranspiration up to 31% by the mid-1970s followed by increases up to 29% until 2013. Vegetation survey data showed commensurate reductions in forest basal area until the mid-1970s and increases since that time accompanied by a shift in dominance from xerophytic oak and hickory species to several mesophytic species (i.e., mesophication) that use relatively more water. These changes in forest structure and species composition may have decreased water yield by as much as 18% in a given year since the mid-1970s after accounting for climate. Our results suggest that changes in climate and forest structure and species composition in unmanaged forests brought about by disturbance and natural community dynamics over time can result in large changes in water supply.}, }
@article {pmid27038126, year = {2016}, author = {Eller, CB and Lima, AL and Oliveira, RS}, title = {Cloud forest trees with higher foliar water uptake capacity and anisohydric behavior are more vulnerable to drought and climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {211}, number = {2}, pages = {489-501}, doi = {10.1111/nph.13952}, pmid = {27038126}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Deuterium/metabolism ; *Droughts ; *Forests ; Isotope Labeling ; Linear Models ; Plant Leaves/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Plant Stomata/physiology ; Probability ; Species Specificity ; Trees/*physiology ; Water/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Many tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) trees are capable of foliar water uptake (FWU) during leaf-wetting events. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that maintenance of leaf turgor during periods of fog exposure and soil drought is related to species' FWU capacity. We conducted several experiments using apoplastic tracers, deuterium labeling and leaf immersion in water to evaluate differences in FWU among three common TMCF tree species. We also measured the effect of regular fog exposure on the leaf water potential of plants subjected to soil drought and used these data to model species' response to long-term drought. All species were able to absorb water through their leaf cuticles and/or trichomes, although the capacity to do so differed between species. During the drought experiment, the species with higher FWU capacity maintained leaf turgor for a longer period when exposed to fog, whereas the species with lower FWU exerted tighter stomatal regulation to maintain leaf turgor. Model results suggest that without fog, species with high FWU are more likely to lose turgor during seasonal droughts. We show that leaf-wetting events are essential for trees with high FWU, which tend to be more anisohydric, maintaining leaf turgor during seasonal droughts.}, }
@article {pmid27034535, year = {2016}, author = {Kaczmarek, J and Kedziora, A and Brachaczek, A and Latunde-Dada, AO and Dakowska, S and Karg, G and Jedryczka, M}, title = {Effect of climate change on sporulation of the teleomorphs of Leptosphaeria species causing stem canker of brassicas.}, journal = {Aerobiologia}, volume = {32}, number = {}, pages = {39-51}, pmid = {27034535}, issn = {0393-5965}, abstract = {Leptosphaeria maculans and L. biglobosa are closely related sibling fungal pathogens that cause phoma leaf spotting, stem canker (blackleg) and stem necrosis of oilseed rape (Brassica napus). The disease is distributed worldwide, and it is one of the main causes of considerable decrease in seed yield and quality. Information about the time of ascospore release at a particular location provides important data for decision making in plant protection, thereby enabling fungicides to be used only when necessary and at optimal times and doses. Although the pathogens have been studied very extensively, the effect of climate change on the frequencies and distributions of their aerially dispersed primary inoculum has not been reported to date. We have collected a large dataset of spore counts from Poznan, located in central-west part of Poland, and studied the relationships between climate and the daily concentrations of airborne propagules over a period of 17 years (1998-2014). The average air temperature and precipitation for the time of development of pseudothecia and ascospore release (July-November), increased during the years under study at the rates of 0.1 °C and 6.3 mm per year. The day of the year (DOY) for the first detection of spores, as well as the date with maximum of spores, shifted from 270 to 248 DOY, and from 315 to 265 DOY, respectively. The acceleration of the former parameter by 22 days and the latter by 50 days has great influence on the severity of stem canker of oilseed rape.}, }
@article {pmid27034371, year = {2016}, author = {Stephens, PA and Mason, LR and Green, RE and Gregory, RD and Sauer, JR and Alison, J and Aunins, A and Brotons, L and Butchart, SH and Campedelli, T and Chodkiewicz, T and Chylarecki, P and Crowe, O and Elts, J and Escandell, V and Foppen, RP and Heldbjerg, H and Herrando, S and Husby, M and Jiguet, F and Lehikoinen, A and Lindström, &#xc5; and Noble, DG and Paquet, JY and Reif, J and Sattler, T and Szép, T and Teufelbauer, N and Trautmann, S and van Strien, AJ and van Turnhout, CA and Vorisek, P and Willis, SG}, title = {Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {352}, number = {6281}, pages = {84-87}, doi = {10.1126/science.aac4858}, pmid = {27034371}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Birds ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring ; Europe ; Population Dynamics ; United States ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.}, }
@article {pmid27030547, year = {2016}, author = {Iacobucci, G}, title = {NHS is unprepared for risks posed by climate change, warn leading UK health bodies.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {352}, number = {}, pages = {i1781}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.i1781}, pmid = {27030547}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/organization &amp; administration ; Health Planning ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; State Medicine/*organization &amp; administration ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid27030410, year = {2016}, author = {Sultaire, SM and Pauli, JN and Martin, KJ and Meyer, MW and Notaro, M and Zuckerberg, B}, title = {Climate change surpasses land-use change in the contracting range boundary of a winter-adapted mammal.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {283}, number = {1827}, pages = {20153104}, pmid = {27030410}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Hares/*physiology ; Snow ; Wisconsin ; }, abstract = {The effects of climate change on biodiversity have emerged as a dominant theme in conservation biology, possibly eclipsing concern over habitat loss in recent years. The extent to which this shifting focus has tracked the most eminent threats to biodiversity is not well documented. We investigated the mechanisms driving shifts in the southern range boundary of a forest and snow cover specialist, the snowshoe hare, to explore how its range boundary has responded to shifting rates of climate and land cover change over time. We found that although both forest and snow cover contributed to the historical range boundary, the current duration of snow cover best explains the most recent northward shift, while forest cover has declined in relative importance. In this respect, the southern range boundary of snowshoe hares has mirrored the focus of conservation research; first habitat loss and fragmentation was the stronger environmental constraint, but climate change has now become the main threat. Projections of future range shifts show that climate change, and associated snow cover loss, will continue to be the major driver of this species' range loss into the future.}, }
@article {pmid27028871, year = {2016}, author = {Fant, C and Schlosser, CA and Gao, X and Strzepek, K and Reilly, J}, title = {Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e0150633}, pmid = {27028871}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern ; *Climate Change ; Drinking Water ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Monte Carlo Method ; Normal Distribution ; Water Resources ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.}, }
@article {pmid27028072, year = {2016}, author = {Fudickar, AM and Greives, TJ and Atwell, JW and Stricker, CA and Ketterson, ED}, title = {Reproductive Allochrony in Seasonally Sympatric Populations Maintained by Differential Response to Photoperiod: Implications for Population Divergence and Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {187}, number = {4}, pages = {436-446}, doi = {10.1086/685296}, pmid = {27028072}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {Adipose Tissue ; Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Deuterium/analysis ; Feathers/chemistry ; Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone/pharmacology ; Male ; Organ Size ; Passeriformes/*physiology ; *Photoperiod ; Seasons ; *Sympatry ; Testis/growth &amp; development ; Testosterone/blood ; }, abstract = {Reproductive allochrony presents a potential barrier to gene flow and is common in seasonally sympatric migratory and sedentary birds. Mechanisms mediating reproductive allochrony can influence population divergence and the capacity of populations to respond to environmental change. We asked whether reproductive allochrony in seasonally sympatric birds results from a difference in response to supplementary or photoperiodic cues and whether the response varies in relation to the distance separating breeding and wintering locations as measured by stable isotopes. We held seasonally sympatric migratory and sedentary male dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis) in a common garden in early spring under simulated natural changes in photoperiod and made measurements of reproductive and migratory physiology. On the same dates and photoperiods, sedentary juncos had higher testosterone (initial and gonadotropin-releasing hormone induced), more developed cloacal protuberances, and larger testes than migrants. In contrast, migratory juncos had larger fat reserves (fuel for migration). We found a negative relationship between testis mass and feather hydrogen isotope ratios, indicating that testis growth was more delayed in migrants making longer migrations. We conclude that reproductive allochrony in seasonally sympatric migratory and sedentary birds can result from a differential response to photoperiodic cues in a common garden, and as a result, gene flow between migrants and residents may be reduced by photoperiodic control of reproductive development. Further, earlier breeding in response to future climate change may currently be constrained by differential response to photoperiodic cues.}, }
@article {pmid27027291, year = {2016}, author = {Weigelt, P and Steinbauer, MJ and Cabral, JS and Kreft, H}, title = {Late Quaternary climate change shapes island biodiversity.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {532}, number = {7597}, pages = {99-102}, pmid = {27027291}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; Climate Change/*history ; Geographic Mapping ; Geological Phenomena ; History, Ancient ; Internationality ; *Islands ; *Magnoliopsida ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/analysis ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Island biogeographical models consider islands either as geologically static with biodiversity resulting from ecologically neutral immigration-extinction dynamics, or as geologically dynamic with biodiversity resulting from immigration-speciation-extinction dynamics influenced by changes in island characteristics over millions of years. Present climate and spatial arrangement of islands, however, are rather exceptional compared to most of the Late Quaternary, which is characterized by recurrent cooler and drier glacial periods. These climatic oscillations over short geological timescales strongly affected sea levels and caused massive changes in island area, isolation and connectivity, orders of magnitude faster than the geological processes of island formation, subsidence and erosion considered in island theory. Consequences of these oscillations for present biodiversity remain unassessed. Here we analyse the effects of present and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) island area, isolation, elevation and climate on key components of angiosperm diversity on islands worldwide. We find that post-LGM changes in island characteristics, especially in area, have left a strong imprint on present diversity of endemic species. Specifically, the number and proportion of endemic species today is significantly higher on islands that were larger during the LGM. Native species richness, in turn, is mostly determined by present island characteristics. We conclude that an appreciation of Late Quaternary environmental change is essential to understand patterns of island endemism and its underlying evolutionary dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid27025462, year = {2016}, author = {Rice, SM and McIver, LJ}, title = {Climate change and mental health: Rationale for research and intervention planning.}, journal = {Asian journal of psychiatry}, volume = {20}, number = {}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.ajp.2015.12.011}, pmid = {27025462}, issn = {1876-2026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Mental Disorders/epidemiology/ethnology/etiology ; Oceania/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid27022008, year = {2016}, author = {Hodgins, KA and Moore, JL}, title = {Adapting to a warming world: Ecological restoration, climate change, and genomics.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {103}, number = {4}, pages = {590-592}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1600049}, pmid = {27022008}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {*Acclimatization/genetics ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Genomics ; }, }
@article {pmid27018790, year = {2016}, author = {Prado-Lima, M and Val, AL}, title = {Transcriptomic Characterization of Tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum, Cuvier, 1818) Exposed to Three Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e0152366}, pmid = {27018790}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Characiformes/*genetics ; Climate Change ; Contig Mapping ; Databases, Genetic ; Expressed Sequence Tags ; Gene Regulatory Networks ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; RNA/chemistry/isolation &amp; purification/metabolism ; Sequence Analysis, RNA ; *Transcriptome ; }, abstract = {Climate change substantially affects biodiversity around the world, especially in the Amazon region, which is home to a significant portion of the world's biodiversity. Freshwater fishes are susceptible to increases in water temperature and variations in the concentrations of dissolved gases, especially oxygen and carbon dioxide. It is important to understand the mechanisms underlying the physiological and biochemical abilities of fishes to survive such environmental changes. In the present study, we applied RNA-Seq and de novo transcriptome sequencing to evaluate transcriptome alterations in tambaqui when exposed to five or fifteen days of the B1, A1B and A2 climate scenarios foreseen by the IPCC. The generated ESTs were assembled into 54,206 contigs. Gene ontology analysis and the STRING tool were then used to identify candidate protein domains, genes and gene families potentially responsible for the adaptation of tambaqui to climate changes. After sequencing eight RNA-Seq libraries, 32,512 genes were identified and mapped using the Danio rerio genome as a reference. In total, 236 and 209 genes were differentially expressed at five and fifteen days, respectively, including chaperones, energetic metabolism-related genes, translation initiation factors and ribosomal genes. Gene ontology enrichment analysis revealed that mitochondrion, protein binding, protein metabolic process, metabolic processes, gene expression, structural constituent of ribosome and translation were the most represented terms. In addition, 1,202 simple sequence repeats were detected, 88 of which qualified for primer design. These results show that cellular response to climate change in tambaqui is complex, involving many genes, and it may be controlled by different cues and transcription/translation regulation mechanisms. The data generated from this study provide a valuable resource for further studies on the molecular mechanisms involved in the adaptation of tambaqui and other closely related teleost species to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27015952, year = {2016}, author = {Gordon, CA and McManus, DP and Jones, MK and Gray, DJ and Gobert, GN}, title = {The Increase of Exotic Zoonotic Helminth Infections: The Impact of Urbanization, Climate Change and Globalization.}, journal = {Advances in parasitology}, volume = {91}, number = {}, pages = {311-397}, doi = {10.1016/bs.apar.2015.12.002}, pmid = {27015952}, issn = {2163-6079}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Helminthiasis/*epidemiology ; Humans ; *Internationality ; *Urbanization ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Zoonotic parasitic diseases are increasingly impacting human populations due to the effects of globalization, urbanization and climate change. Here we review the recent literature on the most important helminth zoonoses, including reports of incidence and prevalence. We discuss those helminth diseases which are increasing in endemic areas and consider their geographical spread into new regions within the framework of globalization, urbanization and climate change to determine the effect these variables are having on disease incidence, transmission and the associated challenges presented for public health initiatives, including control and elimination.}, }
@article {pmid27015274, year = {2016}, author = {Casajus, N and Périé, C and Logan, T and Lambert, MC and de Blois, S and Berteaux, D}, title = {An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e0152495}, pmid = {27015274}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Cluster Analysis ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Models, Statistical ; Population Dynamics ; Quebec ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.}, }
@article {pmid27013308, year = {2016}, author = {Albers, L and van Roosmalen, J and Tura, AK}, title = {Climate change and neonatal survival: the case of Ethiopia.}, journal = {The Lancet. Global health}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {e236}, doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(16)00045-0}, pmid = {27013308}, issn = {2214-109X}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ethiopia ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid27012933, year = {2016}, author = {Corrigan, LJ and Fabiani, A and Chauke, LF and McMahon, CR and de Bruyn, M and Bester, MN and Bastos, A and Campagna, C and Muelbert, MM and Hoelzel, AR}, title = {Population differentiation in the context of Holocene climate change for a migratory marine species, the southern elephant seal.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {29}, number = {9}, pages = {1667-1679}, doi = {10.1111/jeb.12870}, pmid = {27012933}, issn = {1420-9101}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial ; *Genetics, Population ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Seals, Earless/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Understanding observed patterns of connectivity requires an understanding of the evolutionary processes that determine genetic structure among populations, with the most common models being associated with isolation by distance, allopatry or vicariance. Pinnipeds are annual breeders with the capacity for extensive range overlap during seasonal migrations, establishing the potential for the evolution of isolation by distance. Here, we assess the pattern of differentiation among six breeding colonies of the southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, based on mtDNA and 15 neutral microsatellite DNA markers, and consider measures of their demography and connectivity. We show that all breeding colonies are genetically divergent and that connectivity in this highly mobile pinniped is not strongly associated with geographic distance, but more likely linked to Holocene climate change and demographic processes. Estimates of divergence times between populations were all after the last glacial maximum, and there was evidence for directional migration in a clockwise pattern (with the prevailing current) around the Antarctic. We discuss the mechanisms by which climate change may have contributed to the contemporary genetic structure of southern elephant seal populations and the broader implications.}, }
@article {pmid27012869, year = {2016}, author = {Fonseca, MG and Auad, AM and Resende, TT and Hott, MC and Borges, CA}, title = {How will Mahanarva spectabilis (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) Respond to Global Warming?.}, journal = {Journal of insect science (Online)}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {27012869}, issn = {1536-2442}, mesh = {Animals ; Brachiaria/parasitology ; Brazil ; *Global Warming ; Hemiptera/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Longevity/physiology ; Nymph/physiology ; Oviposition/physiology ; Pennisetum/parasitology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The aim of this study was to determine the favorable constant temperature range for Mahanarva spectabilis(Distant) (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) development as well as to generate geographic distribution maps of this insect pest for future climate scenarios. M. spectabilis eggs were reared on two host plants (Brachiaria ruziziensis(Germain and Edvard) and Pennisetum purpureum(Schumach)), with individual plants kept at temperatures of 16, 20, 24, 28, and 32 °C. Nymphal stage duration, nymphal survival, adult longevity, and egg production were recorded for each temperature*host plant combination. Using the favorable temperature ranges for M. spectabilis development, it was possible to generate geographic distribution. Nymphal survival was highest at 24.4 °C, with estimates of 44 and 8% on Pennisetum and Brachiaria, respectively. Nymphal stage duration was greater on Brachiaria than on Pennisetum at 20 and 24 °C but equal at 28 °C. Egg production was higher on Pennisetum at 24 and 28 °C than at 20 °C, and adult longevity on Pennisetum was higher at 28 °C than at 20 °C, whereas adult longevity at 24 °C did not differ from that at 20 and 28 °C. With these results, it was possible to predict a reduction in M. spectabilis densities in most regions of Brazil in future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid27011761, year = {2015}, author = {Wells, ML and Trainer, VL and Smayda, TJ and Karlson, BS and Trick, CG and Kudela, RM and Ishikawa, A and Bernard, S and Wulff, A and Anderson, DM and Cochlan, WP}, title = {Harmful algal blooms and climate change: Learning from the past and present to forecast the future.}, journal = {Harmful algae}, volume = {49}, number = {}, pages = {68-93}, pmid = {27011761}, issn = {1568-9883}, support = {P01 ES021923/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change pressures will influence marine planktonic systems globally, and it is conceivable that harmful algal blooms may increase in frequency and severity. These pressures will be manifest as alterations in temperature, stratification, light, ocean acidification, precipitation-induced nutrient inputs, and grazing, but absence of fundamental knowledge of the mechanisms driving harmful algal blooms frustrates most hope of forecasting their future prevalence. Summarized here is the consensus of a recent workshop held to address what currently is known and not known about the environmental conditions that favor initiation and maintenance of harmful algal blooms. There is expectation that harmful algal bloom (HAB) geographical domains should expand in some cases, as will seasonal windows of opportunity for harmful algal blooms at higher latitudes. Nonetheless there is only basic information to speculate upon which regions or habitats HAB species may be the most resilient or susceptible. Moreover, current research strategies are not well suited to inform these fundamental linkages. There is a critical absence of tenable hypotheses for how climate pressures mechanistically affect HAB species, and the lack of uniform experimental protocols limits the quantitative cross-investigation comparisons essential to advancement. A HAB "best practices" manual would help foster more uniform research strategies and protocols, and selection of a small target list of model HAB species or isolates for study would greatly promote the accumulation of knowledge. Despite the need to focus on keystone species, more studies need to address strain variability within species, their responses under multifactorial conditions, and the retrospective analyses of long-term plankton and cyst core data; research topics that are departures from the norm. Examples of some fundamental unknowns include how larger and more frequent extreme weather events may break down natural biogeographic barriers, how stratification may enhance or diminish HAB events, how trace nutrients (metals, vitamins) influence cell toxicity, and how grazing pressures may leverage, or mitigate HAB development. There is an absence of high quality time-series data in most regions currently experiencing HAB outbreaks, and little if any data from regions expected to develop HAB events in the future. A subset of observer sites is recommended to help develop stronger linkages among global, national, and regional climate change and HAB observation programs, providing fundamental datasets for investigating global changes in the prevalence of harmful algal blooms. Forecasting changes in HAB patterns over the next few decades will depend critically upon considering harmful algal blooms within the competitive context of plankton communities, and linking these insights to ecosystem, oceanographic and climate models. From a broader perspective, the nexus of HAB science and the social sciences of harmful algal blooms is inadequate and prevents quantitative assessment of impacts of future HAB changes on human well-being. These and other fundamental changes in HAB research will be necessary if HAB science is to obtain compelling evidence that climate change has caused alterations in HAB distributions, prevalence or character, and to develop the theoretical, experimental, and empirical evidence explaining the mechanisms underpinning these ecological shifts.}, }
@article {pmid27010784, year = {2016}, author = {Mo, W and Wang, H and Jacobs, JM}, title = {Understanding the influence of climate change on the embodied energy of water supply.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {95}, number = {}, pages = {220-229}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2016.03.022}, pmid = {27010784}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Water Quality ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The current study aims to advance understandings on how and to what degree climate change will affect the life cycle chemical and energy uses of drinking water supply. A dynamic life cycle assessment was performed to quantify historical monthly operational embodied energy of a selected water supply system located in northeast US. Comprehensive multivariate and regression analyses were then performed to understand the statistical correlation among monthly life cycle energy consumptions, three water quality indicators (UV254, pH, and water temperature), and five climate indicators (monthly mean temperature, monthly mean maximum/minimum temperatures, total precipitation, and total snow fall). Thirdly, a calculation was performed to understand how volumetric and total life cycle energy consumptions will change under two selected IPCC emission scenarios (A2 and B1). It was found that volumetric life cycle energy consumptions are highest in winter months mainly due to the higher uses of natural gas in the case study system, but total monthly life cycle energy consumptions peak in both July and January because of the increasing water demand in summer months. Most of the variations in chemical and energy uses can be interpreted by water quality and climate variations except for the use of soda ash. It was also found that climate change might lead to an average decrease of 3-6% in the volumetric energy use of the case study system by the end of the century. This result combined with conclusions reached by previous climate versus water supply studies indicates that effects of climate change on drinking water supply might be highly dependent on the geographical location and treatment process of individual water supply systems.}, }
@article {pmid27010358, year = {2016}, author = {Rousk, K and Michelsen, A and Rousk, J}, title = {Microbial control of soil organic matter mineralization responses to labile carbon in subarctic climate change treatments.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {12}, pages = {4150-4161}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13296}, pmid = {27010358}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Nitrogen ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; Sweden ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Half the global soil carbon (C) is held in high-latitude systems. Climate change will expose these to warming and a shift towards plant communities with more labile C input. Labile C can also increase the rate of loss of native soil organic matter (SOM); a phenomenon termed 'priming'. We investigated how warming (+1.1 °C over ambient using open top chambers) and litter addition (90 g m[-2] yr[-1]) treatments in the subarctic influenced the susceptibility of SOM mineralization to priming, and its microbial underpinnings. Labile C appeared to inhibit the mineralization of C from SOM by up to 60% within hours. In contrast, the mineralization of N from SOM was stimulated by up to 300%. These responses occurred rapidly and were unrelated to microbial successional dynamics, suggesting catabolic responses. Considered separately, the labile C inhibited C mineralization is compatible with previously reported findings termed 'preferential substrate utilization' or 'negative apparent priming', while the stimulated N mineralization responses echo recent reports of 'real priming' of SOM mineralization. However, C and N mineralization responses derived from the same SOM source must be interpreted together: This suggested that the microbial SOM-use decreased in magnitude and shifted to components richer in N. This finding highlights that only considering SOM in terms of C may be simplistic, and will not capture all changes in SOM decomposition. The selective mining for N increased in climate change treatments with higher fungal dominance. In conclusion, labile C appeared to trigger catabolic responses of the resident microbial community that shifted the SOM mining to N-rich components; an effect that increased with higher fungal dominance. Extrapolating from these findings, the predicted shrub expansion in the subarctic could result in an altered microbial use of SOM, selectively mining it for N-rich components, and leading to a reduced total SOM-use.}, }
@article {pmid27009977, year = {2016}, author = {Bell, SA}, title = {Climate change … are we prepared and ready?.}, journal = {International emergency nursing}, volume = {26}, number = {}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.ienj.2016.03.001}, pmid = {27009977}, issn = {1878-013X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/*standards/trends ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid27007389, year = {2016}, author = {Liu, M and Huang, Y and Hiscock, R and Li, Q and Bi, J and Kinney, PL and Sabel, CE}, title = {Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {27007389}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; China ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Environment Design ; Female ; Health Surveys/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Public Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Public Policy ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Urban Health ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn't been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions. Our findings suggested: (i) Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health), psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience) and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen) were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii) None of existing climate change strategies in Suzhou conflict with wellbeing. Three mitigation policies (promotion of tertiary and high-tech industry, increased renewable energy in buildings, and restrictions on car use) and one adaption policy (increasing resilience) brought positive co-benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should be considered.}, }
@article {pmid27005744, year = {2017}, author = {Wilson, A and Reich, BJ and Nolte, CG and Spero, TL and Hubbell, B and Rappold, AG}, title = {Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature risk surfaces.}, journal = {Journal of exposure science &amp; environmental epidemiology}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {118-124}, pmid = {27005744}, issn = {1559-064X}, support = {R01 ES014843/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T32 ES007142/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R21 ES022585/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R21 ES022795/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Air Pollutants/*adverse effects/analysis ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects/analysis ; Animals ; Cities ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Databases, Factual ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Ozone/*adverse effects/analysis ; Risk Assessment ; United States/epidemiology ; Urban Population ; }, abstract = {We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1.6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.6 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels.}, }
@article {pmid27001851, year = {2016}, author = {Springmann, M and Godfray, HC and Rayner, M and Scarborough, P}, title = {Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change cobenefits of dietary change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {15}, pages = {4146-4151}, pmid = {27001851}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {FS/15/34/31656/BHF_/British Heart Foundation/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; *Diet ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Models, Economic ; }, abstract = {What we eat greatly influences our personal health and the environment we all share. Recent analyses have highlighted the likely dual health and environmental benefits of reducing the fraction of animal-sourced foods in our diets. Here, we couple for the first time, to our knowledge, a region-specific global health model based on dietary and weight-related risk factors with emissions accounting and economic valuation modules to quantify the linked health and environmental consequences of dietary changes. We find that the impacts of dietary changes toward less meat and more plant-based diets vary greatly among regions. The largest absolute environmental and health benefits result from diet shifts in developing countries whereas Western high-income and middle-income countries gain most in per capita terms. Transitioning toward more plant-based diets that are in line with standard dietary guidelines could reduce global mortality by 6-10% and food-related greenhouse gas emissions by 29-70% compared with a reference scenario in 2050. We find that the monetized value of the improvements in health would be comparable with, or exceed, the value of the environmental benefits although the exact valuation method used considerably affects the estimated amounts. Overall, we estimate the economic benefits of improving diets to be 1-31 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to 0.4-13% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2050. However, significant changes in the global food system would be necessary for regional diets to match the dietary patterns studied here.}, }
@article {pmid27001058, year = {2016}, author = {Cao, YN and Comes, HP and Sakaguchi, S and Chen, LY and Qiu, YX}, title = {Evolution of East Asia's Arcto-Tertiary relict Euptelea (Eupteleaceae) shaped by Late Neogene vicariance and Quaternary climate change.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {66}, pmid = {27001058}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; China ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; DNA, Ribosomal Spacer/genetics ; Evolution, Molecular ; Asia, Eastern ; Fossils ; Genetic Speciation ; Japan ; Magnoliopsida/*genetics ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The evolutionary origin and historical demography of extant Arcto-Tertiary forest species in East Asia is still poorly understood. Here, we reconstructed the evolutionary and population demographic history of the two extant Euptelea species in China (E. pleiosperma) and Japan (E. polyandra). Chloroplast/nuclear DNA sequences and microsatellite loci were obtained from 36 Euptelea populations to explore molecular structure and diversity in relation to past and present distributions based on ecological niche modelling (ENM). Time-calibrated phylogenetic/phylogeographic inferences and niche-identity tests were used to infer the historical process of lineage formation.<br><br>RESULTS: Euptelea pleiosperma diverged from E. polyandra around the Late Miocene and experienced significant ecological differentiation. A near-simultaneous diversification of six phylogroups occurred during the mid-to-late Pliocene, in response to the abrupt uplift of the eastern Tibetan Plateau and an increasingly cooler and drier climate. Populations of E. pleiosperma seem to have been mostly stationary through the last glacial cycles, while those of E. polyandra reflect more recent climate-induced cycles of range contraction and expansion.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results illustrate how Late Neogene climatic/tectonic changes promoted speciation and lineage diversification in East Asia's Tertiary relict flora. They also demonstrate for the first time a greater variation in such species' responses to glacial cycles in Japan when compared to congeners in China.}, }
@article {pmid26997004, year = {2016}, author = {Narain, JP}, title = {Unravelling the health impact of climate change.}, journal = {The Indian journal of medical research}, volume = {143}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, pmid = {26997004}, issn = {0971-5916}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; }, }
@article {pmid26995918, year = {2015}, author = {Wang, XY and Yang, XG and Sun, S and Xie, WJ}, title = {[Comparison of potential yield and resource utilization efficiency of main food crops in three provinces of Northeast China under climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {10}, pages = {3091-3102}, pmid = {26995918}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Edible Grain/*growth &amp; development ; Millets ; Oryza ; Soil ; Sorghum ; Glycine max ; Temperature ; Triticum ; Water ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Based on the daily data of 65 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 and the crop phenology data in the potential cultivation zones of thermophilic and chimonophilous crops in Northeast China, the crop potential yields were calculated through step-by-step correction method. The spatio-temporal distribution of the crop potential yields at different levels was analyzed. And then we quantified the limitations of temperature and precipitation on the crop potential yields and compared the differences in the climatic resource utilization efficiency. The results showed that the thermal potential yields of six crops (including maize, rice, spring wheat, sorghum, millet and soybean) during the period 1961-2010 deceased from west to east. The climatic potential yields of the five crops (spring wheat not included) were higher in the south than in the north. The potential yield loss rate due to temperature limitations of the six crops presented a spatial distribution pattern and was higher in the east than in the west. Among the six main crops, the yield potential loss rate due to temperature limitation of the soybean was the highest (51%), and those of the other crops fluctuated within the range of 33%-41%. The potential yield loss rate due to water limitation had an obvious regional difference, and was high in Songnen Plain and Changbai Mountains. The potential yield loss rate of spring wheat was the highest (50%), and those of the other four rainfed crops fluctuated within the range of 8%-10%. The solar energy utilization efficiency of the six main crops ranged from 0.9% to 2.7%, in the order of maize> sorghum>rice>millet>spring wheat>soybean. The precipitation utilization efficiency of the maize, sorghum, spring wheat, millet and soybean under rainfed conditions ranged from 8 to 35 kg . hm-2 . mm-1, in the order of maize>sorghum>spring wheat>millet>soybean. In those areas with lower efficiency of solar energy utilization and precipitation utilization, such as Changbai Mountains and the south of Lesser Khingan Mountains, measures could be taken to increase the efficiency of resource utilization such as rational close-planting, selection of droughtresistant varieties, proper and timely fertilization, farming for soil water storage, optimization of crop layout and so on.}, }
@article {pmid26994703, year = {2016}, author = {Benjamin, GC}, title = {Shelter in the Storm: Health Care Systems and Climate Change.}, journal = {The Milbank quarterly}, volume = {94}, number = {1}, pages = {18-22}, pmid = {26994703}, issn = {1468-0009}, mesh = {Capacity Building/methods/*organization &amp; administration/standards ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources/*methods ; Delivery of Health Care/*organization &amp; administration/standards ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration/standards ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid26991658, year = {2016}, author = {Roser-Renouf, C and Maibach, EW and Li, J}, title = {Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e0151558}, pmid = {26991658}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {2011-101305//PHS HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Civil Defense/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Climate ; Climate Change/*economics ; Humans ; Local Government ; Public Health/*economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Risk Assessment ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources.<br><br>METHODS: We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011-2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%).<br><br>RESULTS: Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid26991236, year = {2016}, author = {Castillo, JA and Plata, G}, title = {The expansion of brown rot disease throughout Bolivia: possible role of climate change.}, journal = {Canadian journal of microbiology}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {442-448}, doi = {10.1139/cjm-2015-0665}, pmid = {26991236}, issn = {1480-3275}, mesh = {Bolivia ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; *Ralstonia solanacearum ; Solanum tuberosum/*microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Bacterial wilt is a devastating plant disease caused by the bacterial pathogen Ralstonia solanacearum species complex and affects different crops. Bacterial wilt infecting potato is also known as brown rot (BR) and is responsible for significant economic losses in potato production, especially in developing countries. In Bolivia, BR affects up to 75% of the potato crop in areas with high incidence and 100% of stored potatoes. The disease has disseminated since its introduction to the country in the mid-1980s mostly through contaminated seed tubers. To avoid this, local farmers multiply seed tubers in highlands because the strain infecting potatoes cannot survive near-freezing temperatures that are typical in the high mountains. Past disease surveys have shown an increase in seed tubers with latent infection in areas at altitudes lower than 3000 m a.s.l. Since global warming is increasing in the Andes Mountains, in this work, we explored the incidence of BR in areas at altitudes above 3000 m a.s.l. Results showed BR presence in the majority of these areas, suggesting a correlation between the increase in disease incidence and the increase in temperature and the number of irregular weather events resulting from climate change. However, it cannot be excluded that the increasing availability of latently infected seed tubers has boosted the spread of BR.}, }
@article {pmid26990351, year = {2016}, author = {Wilson, RJ and Banas, NS and Heath, MR and Speirs, DC}, title = {Projected impacts of 21st century climate change on diapause in Calanus finmarchicus.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {10}, pages = {3332-3340}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13282}, pmid = {26990351}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Copepoda ; Metamorphosis, Biological ; Seasons ; *Zooplankton ; }, abstract = {Diapause plays a key role in the life cycle of high latitude zooplankton. During diapause, animals avoid starving in winter by living in deep waters where metabolism is lower and met by lipid reserves. Global warming is therefore expected to shorten the maximum potential diapause duration by increasing metabolic rates and by reducing body size and lipid reserves. This will alter the phenology of zooplankton, impact higher trophic levels and disrupt biological carbon pumps. Here, we project the impacts of climate change on the key North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus under IPCC RCP 8.5. Potential diapause duration is modelled in relation to body size and overwintering temperature. The projections show pronounced geographic variations. Potential diapause duration reduces by more than 30% in the Western Atlantic, whereas in the key overwintering centre of the Norwegian Sea it changes only marginally. Surface temperature rises, which reduce body size and lipid reserves, will have a similar impact to deep-water changes on diapause in many regions. Because deep-water warming lags that at the surface, animals in the Labrador Sea could offset warming impacts by diapausing in deeper waters. However, the ability to control diapause depth may be limited.}, }
@article {pmid26990129, year = {2016}, author = {Dineshram, R and Chandramouli, K and Ko, GW and Zhang, H and Qian, PY and Ravasi, T and Thiyagarajan, V}, title = {Quantitative analysis of oyster larval proteome provides new insights into the effects of multiple climate change stressors.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {2054-2068}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13249}, pmid = {26990129}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Chromatography, Liquid ; *Climate Change ; Crassostrea/*physiology ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Larva/physiology ; *Metamorphosis, Biological ; Proteome/*physiology ; Salinity ; Seawater/chemistry ; Stress, Physiological ; Tandem Mass Spectrometry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The metamorphosis of planktonic larvae of the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) underpins their complex life-history strategy by switching on the molecular machinery required for sessile life and building calcite shells. Metamorphosis becomes a survival bottleneck, which will be pressured by different anthropogenically induced climate change-related variables. Therefore, it is important to understand how metamorphosing larvae interact with emerging climate change stressors. To predict how larvae might be affected in a future ocean, we examined changes in the proteome of metamorphosing larvae under multiple stressors: decreased pH (pH 7.4), increased temperature (30 °C), and reduced salinity (15 psu). Quantitative protein expression profiling using iTRAQ-LC-MS/MS identified more than 1300 proteins. Decreased pH had a negative effect on metamorphosis by down-regulating several proteins involved in energy production, metabolism, and protein synthesis. However, warming switched on these down-regulated pathways at pH 7.4. Under multiple stressors, cell signaling, energy production, growth, and developmental pathways were up-regulated, although metamorphosis was still reduced. Despite the lack of lethal effects, significant physiological responses to both individual and interacting climate change related stressors were observed at proteome level. The metamorphosing larvae of the C. gigas population in the Yellow Sea appear to have adequate phenotypic plasticity at the proteome level to survive in future coastal oceans, but with developmental and physiological costs.}, }
@article {pmid26989845, year = {2017}, author = {Jones, C and Hine, DW and Marks, AD}, title = {The Future is Now: Reducing Psychological Distance to Increase Public Engagement with Climate Change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {37}, number = {2}, pages = {331-341}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12601}, pmid = {26989845}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {Many people perceive climate change as psychologically distant-a set of uncertain events that might occur far in the future, impacting distant places and affecting people dissimilar to themselves. In this study, we employed construal level theory to investigate whether a climate change communication intervention could increase public engagement by reducing the psychological distance of climate change. Australian residents (N = 333) were randomly assigned to one of two treatment conditions: one framed to increase psychological distance to climate change (distal frame), and the other framed to reduce psychological distance (proximal frame). Participants then completed measures of psychological distance of climate change impacts, climate change concern, and intentions to engage in mitigation behavior. Principal components analysis indicated that psychological distance to climate change was best conceptualized as a multidimensional construct consisting of four components: geographic, temporal, social, and uncertainty. Path analysis revealed the effect of the treatment frame on climate change concern and intentions was fully mediated by psychological distance dimensions related to uncertainty and social distance. Our results suggest that climate communications framed to reduce psychological distance represent a promising strategy for increasing public engagement with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26989826, year = {2016}, author = {Kjellstrom, T and Briggs, D and Freyberg, C and Lemke, B and Otto, M and Hyatt, O}, title = {Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {37}, number = {}, pages = {97-112}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-032315-021740}, pmid = {26989826}, issn = {1545-2093}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Gross Domestic Product ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Occupational Health ; *Workplace ; }, abstract = {Ambient heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which reduces human performance and work capacity at heat levels already common in tropical and subtropical areas. Various health problems have been reported. Increasing heat exposure during the hottest seasons of each year is a key feature of global climate change. Heat exhaustion and reduced human performance are often overlooked in climate change health impact analysis. Later this century, many among the four billion people who live in hot areas worldwide will experience significantly reduced work capacity owing to climate change. In some areas, 30-40% of annual daylight hours will become too hot for work to be carried out. The social and economic impacts will be considerable, with global gross domestic product (GDP) losses greater than 20% by 2100. The analysis to date is piecemeal. More analysis of climate change-related occupational health impact assessments is greatly needed.}, }
@article {pmid26989475, year = {2016}, author = {Boyer, S and Case, BS and Lefort, MC and Waterhouse, BR and Wratten, SD}, title = {Can ecosystem-scale translocations mitigate the impact of climate change on terrestrial biodiversity? Promises, pitfalls, and possibilities: Ecosystem-scale translocations.}, journal = {F1000Research}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {146}, pmid = {26989475}, issn = {2046-1402}, abstract = {Because ecological interactions are the first components of the ecosystem to be impacted by climate change, future forms of threatened-species and ecosystem management should aim at conserving complete, functioning communities rather than single charismatic species. A possible way forward is the deployment of ecosystem-scale translocation (EST), where above- and below-ground elements of a functioning terrestrial ecosystem (including vegetation and topsoil) are carefully collected and moved together. Small-scale attempts at such practice have been made for the purpose of ecological restoration. By moving larger subsets of functioning ecosystems from climatically unstable regions to more stable ones, EST could provide a practical means to conserve mature and complex ecosystems threatened by climate change. However, there are a number of challenges associated with EST in the context of climate change mitigation, in particular the choice of donor and receptor sites. With the aim of fostering discussion and debate about the EST concept, we 1) outline the possible promises and pitfalls of EST in mitigating the impact of climate change on terrestrial biodiversity and 2) use a GIS-based approach to illustrate how potential source and receptor sites, where EST could be trialed and evaluated globally, could be identified.}, }
@article {pmid26989227, year = {2016}, author = {Cornwall, W}, title = {CLIMATE SCIENCE. Efforts to link climate change to severe weather gain ground.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {351}, number = {6279}, pages = {1249-1250}, doi = {10.1126/science.351.6279.1249}, pmid = {26989227}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid26986498, year = {2016}, author = {Sterk, A and Schijven, J and de Roda Husman, AM and de Nijs, T}, title = {Effect of climate change on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to surface water.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {95}, number = {}, pages = {90-102}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2016.03.005}, pmid = {26986498}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Animals ; Campylobacter ; Cattle ; Climate Change ; *Cryptosporidium ; Female ; *Water ; }, abstract = {Faeces originating from wildlife, domestic animals or manure-fertilized fields, is considered an important source of zoonotic pathogens to which people may be exposed by, for instance, bathing or drinking-water consumption. An increase in runoff, and associated wash-off of animal faeces from fields, is assumed to contribute to the increase of disease outbreaks during periods of high precipitation. Climate change is expected to increase winter precipitation and extreme precipitation events during summer, but has simultaneously also other effects such as temperature rise and changes in evapotranspiration. The question is to what extent the combination of these effects influence the input of zoonotic pathogens to the surface waters. To quantitatively analyse the impacts of climate change on pathogen runoff, pathogen concentrations reaching surface waters through runoff were calculated by combining an input model for catchment pathogen loads with the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). Runoff of Cryptosporidium and Campylobacter was evaluated under different climate change scenarios and by applying different scenarios for sources of faecal pollution in the catchments, namely dairy cows and geese and manure fertilization. Model evaluation of these scenarios shows that climate change has little overall impact on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to the surface waters. Even though individual processes like runoff fluxes, pathogen release and dilution are affected, either positively or negatively, the net effect on the pathogen concentration in surface waters and consequently also on infection risks through recreation seems limited.}, }
@article {pmid26983802, year = {2016}, author = {Sánchez-Fernández, D and Rizzo, V and Cieslak, A and Faille, A and Fresneda, J and Ribera, I}, title = {Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {23381}, pmid = {26983802}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/classification ; Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; Phylogeny ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience.}, }
@article {pmid26983534, year = {2016}, author = {Spracklen, DV}, title = {Global warming: China's contribution to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {531}, number = {7594}, pages = {310-312}, pmid = {26983534}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid26981200, year = {2016}, author = {Paital, B and Panda, SK and Hati, AK and Mohanty, B and Mohapatra, MK and Kanungo, S and Chainy, GB}, title = {Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming.}, journal = {World journal of biological chemistry}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {110-127}, pmid = {26981200}, issn = {1949-8454}, abstract = {The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to longevity of animals will become very crucial challenge to biologists of the present millennium.}, }
@article {pmid26979963, year = {2016}, author = {Faust, DR and Moore, MT and Emison, GA and Rush, SA}, title = {Potential Implications of Approaches to Climate Change on the Clean Water Rule Definition of "Waters of the United States".}, journal = {Bulletin of environmental contamination and toxicology}, volume = {96}, number = {5}, pages = {565-572}, doi = {10.1007/s00128-016-1773-z}, pmid = {26979963}, issn = {1432-0800}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Policy ; Fresh Water ; United States ; United States Environmental Protection Agency ; Water ; Water Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {The 1972 Clean Water Act was passed to protect chemical, physical, and biological integrity of United States' waters. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers codified a new "waters of the United States" rule on June 29, 2015, because several Supreme Court case decisions caused confusion with the existing rule. Climate change could affect this rule through connectivity between groundwater and surface waters; floodplain waters and the 100-year floodplain; changes in jurisdictional status; and sea level rise on coastal ecosystems. Four approaches are discussed for handling these implications: (1) "Wait and see"; (2) changes to the rule; (3) use guidance documents; (4) Congress statutorily defining "waters of the United States." The approach chosen should be legally defensible and achieved in a timely fashion to provide protection to "waters of the United States" in proactive consideration of scientifically documented effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid26979241, year = {2016}, author = {Kabir, MI and Rahman, MB and Smith, W and Lusha, MA and Azim, S and Milton, AH}, title = {Knowledge and perception about climate change and human health: findings from a baseline survey among vulnerable communities in Bangladesh.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {16}, number = {}, pages = {266}, pmid = {26979241}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Adult ; Age Factors ; Bangladesh/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Health Expenditures ; Humans ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Perception ; *Public Opinion ; Residence Characteristics ; *Rural Population ; Schools ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change (CC). A basic understanding of public perception on vulnerability, attitude and the risk in relation to CC and health will provide strategic directions for government policy, adaptation strategies and development of community-based guidelines. The objective of this study was to collect community-based data on peoples' knowledge and perception about CC and its impact on health.<br><br>METHODS: In 2012, a cross-sectional survey was undertaken among 6720 households of 224 enumeration areas of rural villages geographically distributed in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh, with total population of 19,228,598. Thirty households were selected randomly from each enumeration area using the household listing provided by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Information was collected from all the 6720 research participants using a structured questionnaire. An observation checklist was used by the interviewers to collect household- and community-related information. In addition, we selected the head of each household as the eligible participant for an interview. Evidence of association between sociodemographic variables and knowledge of CC was explored by cross-tabulation and measured using chi-square tests. Logistic regression models were used to further explore the predictors of knowledge.<br><br>RESULTS: The study revealed that the residents of the rural communities selected for this study largely come from a low socioeconomic background: only 9.6% had postsecondary education or higher, the majority worked as day labourer or farmer (60%), and only 10% earned a monthly income above BDT 12000 (equivalent to US $150 approx.). The majority of the participants (54.2%) had some knowledge about CC but 45.8% did not (p < 0.001). The majority of knowledgeable participants (n = 3645) felt excessive temperature as the change of climate (83.2%). Among all the respondents (n = 6720), 94.5% perceived change in climate and extreme weather events. Most of them (91.9%) observed change in rainfall patterns in the last 10 years, and 97.8% people think their health care expenditure increased after the extreme weather events. Age, educational qualification, monthly income, and occupation were significantly associated with the knowledge about climate change (p < 0.001). People with higher educational level or who live near a school were more knowledgeable about CC and its impact on health.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The knowledge level about CC in our study group was average but the perception and awareness of CC related events and its impact on health was high. The most influential factor leading to understanding of CC and its impact on health was education. School-based intervention could be explored to increase peoples' knowledge about CC and necessary health adaptation at community level.}, }
@article {pmid26974571, year = {2016}, author = {Schroth, G and Läderach, P and Martinez-Valle, AI and Bunn, C and Jassogne, L}, title = {Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {556}, number = {}, pages = {231-241}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.024}, pmid = {26974571}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Cacao/*physiology ; Cameroon ; Chocolate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Cote d'Ivoire ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Ghana ; Grassland ; Nigeria ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas.}, }
@article {pmid26973824, year = {2016}, author = {Keleman Saxena, A and Cadima Fuentes, X and Gonzales Herbas, R and Humphries, DL}, title = {Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.}, journal = {Frontiers in public health}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {20}, pmid = {26973824}, issn = {2296-2565}, abstract = {Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat from climate change. As such, the health of the food production and processing environments in such systems merits immediate attention in research and practice.}, }
@article {pmid26961903, year = {2016}, author = {Semenza, JC and Tran, A and Espinosa, L and Sudre, B and Domanovic, D and Paz, S}, title = {Climate change projections of West Nile virus infections in Europe: implications for blood safety practices.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {15 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {28}, pmid = {26961903}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {*Blood Donors/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Blood Safety/standards ; *Blood Transfusion/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Prevalence ; West Nile Fever/*epidemiology/*transmission/virology ; West Nile virus/physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted by mosquitoes in both urban as well as in rural environments and can be pathogenic in birds, horses and humans. Extrinsic factors such as temperature and land use are determinants of WNV outbreaks in Europe, along with intrinsic factors of the vector and virus.<br><br>METHODS: With a multivariate model for WNV transmission we computed the probability of WNV infection in 2014, with July 2014 temperature anomalies. We applied the July temperature anomalies under the balanced A1B climate change scenario (mix of all energy sources, fossil and non-fossil) for 2025 and 2050 to model and project the risk of WNV infection in the future. Since asymptomatic infections are common in humans (which can result in the contamination of the donated blood) we estimated the predictive prevalence of WNV infections in the blood donor population.<br><br>RESULTS: External validation of the probability model with 2014 cases indicated good prediction, based on an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.871 (SD&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.032), on the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). The climate change projections for 2025 reveal a higher probability of WNV infection particularly at the edges of the current transmission areas (for example in Eastern Croatia, Northeastern and Northwestern Turkey) and an even further expansion in 2050. The prevalence of infection in (blood donor) populations in the outbreak-affected districts is expected to expand in the future.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Predictive modelling of environmental and climatic drivers of WNV can be a valuable tool for public health practice. It can help delineate districts at risk for future transmission. These areas can be subjected to integrated disease and vector surveillance, outreach to the public and health care providers, implementation of personal protective measures, screening of blood donors, and vector abatement activities.}, }
@article {pmid26961843, year = {2016}, author = {Walden, J and Wenzel, L}, title = {Beyond Climate Change: Why Medical Institutions Should Divest From Fossil Fuels.}, journal = {North Carolina medical journal}, volume = {77}, number = {2}, pages = {146}, doi = {10.18043/ncm.77.2.146}, pmid = {26961843}, issn = {0029-2559}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Fossil Fuels/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Physician's Role ; *Preventive Medicine ; Public Health/methods ; }, }
@article {pmid26961541, year = {2016}, author = {Arbuthnott, K and Hajat, S and Heaviside, C and Vardoulakis, S}, title = {Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {15 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {33}, pmid = {26961541}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Climate Change ; Cold Temperature/*adverse effects ; Health Impact Assessment ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; *Urban Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the context of a warming climate and increasing urbanisation (with the associated urban heat island effect), interest in understanding temperature related health effects is growing. Previous reviews have examined how the temperature-mortality relationship varies by geographical location. There have been no reviews examining the empirical evidence for changes in population susceptibility to the effects of heat and/or cold over time. The objective of this paper is to review studies which have specifically examined variations in temperature related mortality risks over the 20(th) and 21(st) centuries and determine whether population adaptation to heat and/or cold has occurred.<br><br>METHODS: We searched five electronic databases combining search terms for three main concepts: temperature, health outcomes and changes in vulnerability or adaptation. Studies included were those which quantified the risk of heat related mortality with changing ambient temperature in a specific location over time, or those which compared mortality outcomes between two different extreme temperature events (heatwaves) in one location.<br><br>RESULTS: The electronic searches returned 9183 titles and abstracts, of which eleven studies examining the effects of ambient temperature over time were included and six studies comparing the effect of different heatwaves at discrete time points were included. Of the eleven papers that quantified the risk of, or absolute heat related mortality over time, ten found a decrease in susceptibility over time of which five found the decrease to be significant. The magnitude of the decrease varied by location. Only two studies attempted to quantitatively attribute changes in susceptibility to specific adaptive measures and found no significant association between the risk of heat related mortality and air conditioning prevalence within or between cities over time. Four of the six papers examining effects of heatwaves found a decrease in expected mortality in later years. Five studies examined the risk of cold. In contrast to the changes in heat related mortality observed, only one found a significant decrease in cold related mortality in later time periods.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence that across a number of different settings, population susceptibility to heat and heatwaves has been decreasing. These changes in heat related susceptibility have important implications for health impact assessments of future heat related risk. A similar decrease in cold related mortality was not shown. Adaptation to heat has implications for future planning, particularly in urban areas, with anticipated increases in temperature due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26960925, year = {2016}, author = {Sabel, CE and Hiscock, R and Asikainen, A and Bi, J and Depledge, M and van den Elshout, S and Friedrich, R and Huang, G and Hurley, F and Jantunen, M and Karakitsios, SP and Keuken, M and Kingham, S and Kontoroupis, P and Kuenzli, N and Liu, M and Martuzzi, M and Morton, K and Mudu, P and Niittynen, M and Perez, L and Sarigiannis, D and Stahl-Timmins, W and Tobollik, M and Tuomisto, J and Willers, S}, title = {Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate change: findings from the URGENCHE EU-China project.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {15 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {25}, pmid = {26960925}, issn = {1476-069X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; China ; Cities ; Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Europe ; European Union ; Gases/analysis ; Government Regulation ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Health Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a global threat to health and wellbeing. Here we provide findings of an international research project investigating the health and wellbeing impacts of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments.<br><br>METHODS: Five European and two Chinese city authorities and partner academic organisations formed the project consortium. The methodology involved modelling the impact of adopted urban climate-change mitigation transport, buildings and energy policy scenarios, usually for the year 2020 and comparing them with business as usual (BAU) scenarios (where policies had not been adopted). Carbon dioxide emissions, health impacting exposures (air pollution, noise and physical activity), health (cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer and leukaemia) and wellbeing (including noise related wellbeing, overall wellbeing, economic wellbeing and inequalities) were modelled. The scenarios were developed from corresponding known levels in 2010 and pre-existing exposure response functions. Additionally there were literature reviews, three longitudinal observational studies and two cross sectional surveys.<br><br>RESULTS: There are four key findings. Firstly introduction of electric cars may confer some small health benefits but it would be unwise for a city to invest in electric vehicles unless their power generation fuel mix generates fewer emissions than petrol and diesel. Second, adopting policies to reduce private car use may have benefits for carbon dioxide reduction and positive health impacts through reduced noise and increased physical activity. Third, the benefits of carbon dioxide reduction from increasing housing efficiency are likely to be minor and co-benefits for health and wellbeing are dependent on good air exchange. Fourthly, although heating dwellings by in-home biomass burning may reduce carbon dioxide emissions, consequences for health and wellbeing were negative with the technology in use in the cities studied.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The climate-change reduction policies reduced CO2 emissions (the most common greenhouse gas) from cities but impact on global emissions of CO2 would be more limited due to some displacement of emissions. The health and wellbeing impacts varied and were often limited reflecting existing relatively high quality of life and environmental standards in most of the participating cities; the greatest potential for future health benefit occurs in less developed or developing countries.}, }
@article {pmid26960200, year = {2016}, author = {Evans, LS and Hicks, CC and Adger, WN and Barnett, J and Perry, AL and Fidelman, P and Tobin, R}, title = {Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e0150575}, pmid = {26960200}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization/physiology ; Animals ; *Anthozoa ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.}, }
@article {pmid26959424, year = {2016}, author = {Samy, AM and Peterson, AT}, title = {Climate Change Influences on the Global Potential Distribution of Bluetongue Virus.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e0150489}, pmid = {26959424}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Bluetongue/transmission/*virology ; Bluetongue virus/*physiology ; Ceratopogonidae/virology ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Insect Vectors/virology ; Ruminants/virology ; }, abstract = {The geographic distribution of arboviruses has received considerable attention after several dramatic emergence events around the world. Bluetongue virus (BTV) is classified among category "A" diseases notifiable to the World Organization of Animal Health (OIE), and is transmitted among ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides. Here, we developed a comprehensive occurrence data set to map the current distribution, estimate the ecological niche, and explore the future potential distribution of BTV globally using ecological niche modeling and based on diverse future climate scenarios from general circulation models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The broad ecological niche and potential geographic distribution of BTV under present-day conditions reflected the disease's current distribution across the world in tropical, subtropical, and temperate regions. All model predictions were significantly better than random expectations. As a further evaluation of model robustness, we compared our model predictions to 331 independent records from most recent outbreaks from the Food and Agriculture Organization Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases Information System (EMPRES-i); all were successfully anticipated by the BTV model. Finally, we tested ecological niche similarity among possible vectors and BTV, and could not reject hypotheses of niche similarity. Under future-climate conditions, the potential distribution of BTV was predicted to broaden, especially in central Africa, United States, and western Russia.}, }
@article {pmid26958981, year = {2016}, author = {Botana, LM}, title = {Toxicological Perspective on Climate Change: Aquatic Toxins.}, journal = {Chemical research in toxicology}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {619-625}, doi = {10.1021/acs.chemrestox.6b00020}, pmid = {26958981}, issn = {1520-5010}, mesh = {Acrylamides/analysis ; Animals ; Bivalvia/chemistry ; Chromatography, Liquid ; Ciguatoxins/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Cnidarian Venoms ; Fishes/metabolism ; Food Contamination/analysis ; Fresh Water/analysis ; Humans ; Marine Toxins/*analysis ; Microcystins/analysis ; Okadaic Acid/analysis ; Seafood/*analysis ; Tandem Mass Spectrometry ; }, abstract = {In recent years, our group and several others have been describing the presence of new, not previously reported, toxins of high toxicity in vectors that may reach the human food chain. These include tetrodotoxin in gastropods in the South of Europe, ciguatoxin in fish in the South of Spain, palytoxin in mussels in the Mediterranean Sea, pinnatoxin all over Europe, and okadaic acid in the south of the U.S. There seem to be new marine toxins appearing in areas that are heavy producers of seafood, and this is a cause of concern as most of these new toxins are not included in current legislation and monitoring programs. Along with the new toxins, new chemical analogues are being reported. The same phenomenom is being recorded in freshwater toxins, such as the wide appearance of cylindrospermopsin and the large worldwide increase of microcystin. The problem that this phenomenon, which may be linked to climate warming, poses for toxicologists is very important not only because there is a lack of chronic studies and an incomplete comprehension of the mechanism driving the production of these toxins but also because the lack of a legal framework for them allows many of these toxins to reach the market. In some cases, it is very difficult to control these toxins because there are not enough standards available, they are not always certified, and there is an insufficient understanding of the toxic equivalency factors of the different analogues in each group. All of these factors have been revealed and grouped through the massive increase in the use of LC-MS as a monitoring tool, legally demanded, creating more toxicological problems.}, }
@article {pmid26956746, year = {2016}, author = {Calder, AS and Morgan, JE}, title = {'Out of the Whirlwind': Clinical Pastoral Education and Climate Change.}, journal = {The journal of pastoral care &amp; counseling : JPCC}, volume = {70}, number = {1}, pages = {16-25}, doi = {10.1177/1542305015621707}, pmid = {26956746}, issn = {1542-3050}, mesh = {Chaplaincy Service, Hospital/*organization &amp; administration ; Critical Care/organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Interprofessional Relations ; Pastoral Care/*education ; Professional Practice/*organization &amp; administration ; *Professional Role ; *Religion and Medicine ; Theology/education ; Victoria ; }, abstract = {This article traces the development of an innovative program of Clinical Pastoral Education (CPE), conducted in 2013 in Victoria, Australia. Interns were placed in environmental contexts; the program's aim was to enhance the eco-ministry identity of interns as they attended to the anxieties and concerns of people affected by ecological change, as well as listening to the cries and groans of Earth. In this sense, pastoral care acknowledges the environment and our human presence within it as of religious and spiritual concern. The theological and supervisory rationales of the program are outlined and include a careful alignment of parallel competencies with the existing objectives and standards required for accreditation. Guidelines for sacred practice in nature, place/case study and the more-than-human verbatims are described, and an illustrative example of such a verbatim is also included.}, }
@article {pmid26951654, year = {2016}, author = {Cheng, J and Liu, Z and Zhang, S and Liu, W and Dong, L and Liu, P and Li, H}, title = {Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {12}, pages = {3175-3178}, pmid = {26951654}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.}, }
@article {pmid26951116, year = {2016}, author = {Juknys, R and Kanapickas, A and Šveikauskaitė, I and Sujetovienė, G}, title = {Response of deciduous trees spring phenology to recent and projected climate change in Central Lithuania.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {60}, number = {10}, pages = {1589-1602}, pmid = {26951116}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Lithuania ; Magnoliopsida/*growth &amp; development ; *Models, Theoretical ; Plant Leaves/*growth &amp; development ; Regression Analysis ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The analysis of long-term time series of spring phenology for different deciduous trees species has shown that leaf unfolding for all the investigated species is the most sensitive to temperatures in March and April and illustrates that forcing temperature is the main driver of the advancement of leaf unfolding. Available chilling amount has increased by 22.5 % over the last 90 years, indicating that in the investigated geographical region there is no threat of chilling shortage. The projection of climatic parameters for Central Lithuania on the basis of three global circulation models has shown that under the optimistic climate change scenario (RCP 2.6) the mean temperature tends to increase by 1.28 °C and under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) by 5.03 °C until the end of the current century. Recently, different statistical models are used not only to analyze but also to project the changes in spring phenology. Our study has shown that when the data of long-term phenological observations are available, multiple regression models are suitable for the projection of the advancement of leaf unfolding under the changing climate. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projected advancement in leaf unfolding for early-season species birch consists of almost 15 days as an average of all three used GSMs. Markedly less response to the projected far future (2071-2100), climate change is foreseen for other investigated climax species: -9 days for lime, 10 days for oak, and 11 days for maple.}, }
@article {pmid26950769, year = {2016}, author = {Baker, DJ and Hartley, AJ and Butchart, SH and Willis, SG}, title = {Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {2392-2404}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13273}, pmid = {26950769}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses.}, }
@article {pmid26950617, year = {2016}, author = {Gao, Q and Guo, Y and Xu, H and Ganjurjav, H and Li, Y and Wan, Y and Qin, X and Ma, X and Liu, S}, title = {Climate change and its impacts on vegetation distribution and net primary productivity of the alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {554-555}, number = {}, pages = {34-41}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.131}, pmid = {26950617}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Grassland ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plants ; Temperature ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Changes in climate have caused impacts on ecosystems on all continents scale, and climate change is also projected to be a stressor on most ecosystems even at the rate of low- to medium-range warming scenarios. Alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is vulnerable to climate change. To quantify the climate change impacts on alpine ecosystems, we simulated the vegetation distribution and net primary production in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau for three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) using climate projection for RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The modified Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ model) was parameter and test to make it applicable to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Climate projections that were applied to LPJ model in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau showed trends toward warmer and wetter conditions. Results based on climate projections indicated changes from 1.3°C to 4.2°C in annual temperature and changes from 2% to 5% in annual precipitation. The main impacts on vegetation distribution was increase in the area of forests and shrubs, decrease in alpine meadows which mainly replaced by shrubs which dominated the eastern plateau, and expanding in alpine steppes to the northwest dominated the western and northern plateau. The NPP was projected to increase by 79% and 134% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projected NPP generally increased about 200gC·m(-2)·yr(-1) in most parts of the plateau with a gradual increase from the eastern to the western region of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau at the end of this century.}, }
@article {pmid26947322, year = {2016}, author = {Springmann, M and Mason-D'Croz, D and Robinson, S and Garnett, T and Godfray, HC and Gollin, D and Rayner, M and Ballon, P and Scarborough, P}, title = {Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {387}, number = {10031}, pages = {1937-1946}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01156-3}, pmid = {26947322}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {FS/15/34/31656/BHF_/British Heart Foundation/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Agriculture/trends ; Body Weight/physiology ; Cause of Death/trends ; *Climate Change ; Developed Countries/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Developing Countries/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Diet/trends ; Energy Intake ; *Food Supply ; Global Health/*trends ; Health Status ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050.<br><br>METHODS: For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs.<br><br>FINDINGS: The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3&#xb7;2% (SD 0&#xb7;4%) in global food availability, 4&#xb7;0% (0&#xb7;7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0&#xb7;7% (0&#xb7;1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in south and east Asia. Adoption of climate-stabilisation pathways would reduce the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71%, depending on their stringency.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: The health effects of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be substantial, and exceed other climate-related health impacts that have been estimated. Climate change mitigation could prevent many climate-related deaths. Strengthening of public health programmes aimed at preventing and treating diet and weight-related risk factors could be a suitable climate change adaptation strategy.<br><br>FUNDING: Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food.}, }
@article {pmid26947321, year = {2016}, author = {Woodward, A and Porter, JR}, title = {Food, hunger, health, and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {387}, number = {10031}, pages = {1886-1887}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00349-4}, pmid = {26947321}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Global Health/*trends ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid26946335, year = {2016}, author = {Turner, RK and Palmieri, MG and Luisetti, T}, title = {Lessons from the construction of a climate change adaptation plan: A Broads wetland case study.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {719-725}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.1774}, pmid = {26946335}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; England ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The dynamic nature of environmental change in coastal areas means that a flexible "learning by doing" management strategy has a number of advantages. This article lays out the principles of such a strategy and then assesses an actual planning and management process focused on climate change consequences for the Broads wetland on the East coast of England. The management strategy focused on the concept of ecosystem services (stocks and flows) provided by the coastal wetland and the threats and opportunities posed to the area by sea level rise and other climate change impacts. The analysis explores the process by which an adaptive management plan has been formulated and coproduced by a combination of centralized (vertical) and stakeholder social network (horizontal) arrangements. The process values where feasible the ecosystem services under threat and prioritizes response actions. Coastal management needs a careful balance between strategic requirements imposed at a national scale and local schemes that affect regional and/or local communities and social networks. These networks aided by electronic media have allowed groups to engage more rapidly and effectively with policy proposals. However, successful deliberation is conditioned by a range of context specific factors, including the type of social networks present and their relative competitive and/or complementary characteristics. The history of consultation and dialogue between official agencies and stakeholders also plays a part in contemporary deliberation processes and the success of their outcomes. Among the issues highlighted are the multiple dimensions of nature's value; the difficulty of quantifying some ecosystem service changes, especially for cultural services; and the problem of "stakeholder fatigue" complicating engagement arrangements. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:719-725. © 2016 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid26943600, year = {2016}, author = {Lewis, ND}, title = {Sustainable development through a gendered lens: climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {97-102}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2015-0077}, pmid = {26943600}, issn = {2191-0308}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Disasters/*prevention &amp; control ; Risk Reduction Behavior ; *Sexism ; }, abstract = {The UN General Assembly has just adopted the post 2015 Sustainable Development Agenda articulated in the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Achieving the SDGs will be furthered by the closer integration of the climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) agendas. Gender provides us a valuable portal for considering this integration. Acknowledging that gender relaters to both women and men and that men and women experience climate variability and disasters differently, in this paper the role of women in both CCA and DRR is explored, shifting the focus from women as vulnerable victims to women as critical agents for change with respect to climate change mitigation and adaptation and reduction of disaster risks. Appropriately targeted interventions can also empower women and contribute to more just and inclusive sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid26940852, year = {2016}, author = {Dayananda, B and Gray, S and Pike, D and Webb, JK}, title = {Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {2405-2414}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13231}, pmid = {26940852}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Hot Temperature ; *Lizards ; *Nesting Behavior ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current 'cold' nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10-33 °C) and future 'hot' nests (27.0 °C, 14-37 °C). 'Hot' incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot-incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold-incubated (11%, 58%) or wild-born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78- 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52- 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18-44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest-site choices. Over the period 1992-2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest-site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments.}, }
@article {pmid26939685, year = {2016}, author = {McElhinney, J}, title = {Influencing the agricultural sector to embrace adaptation to climate change, for the sake of global food security.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {9245-9246}, pmid = {26939685}, issn = {1614-7499}, }
@article {pmid26939133, year = {2016}, author = {Estrada, A and Delgado, MP and Arroyo, B and Traba, J and Morales, MB}, title = {Forecasting Large-Scale Habitat Suitability of European Bustards under Climate Change: The Role of Environmental and Geographic Variables.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e0149810}, pmid = {26939133}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {We modelled the distribution of two vulnerable steppe birds, Otis tarda and Tetrax tetrax, in the Western Palearctic and projected their suitability up to the year 2080. We performed two types of models for each species: one that included environmental and geographic variables (space-included model) and a second one that only included environmental variables (space-excluded model). Our assumption was that ignoring geographic variables in the modelling procedure may result in inaccurate forecasting of species distributions. On the other hand, the inclusion of geographic variables may generate an artificial constraint on future projections. Our results show that space-included models performed better than space-excluded models. While distribution of suitable areas for T. tetrax in the future was approximately the same as at present in the space-included model, the space-excluded model predicted a pronounced geographic change of suitable areas for this species. In the case of O. tarda, the space-included model showed that many areas of current presence shifted to low or medium suitability in the future, whereas a northward expansion of intermediate suitable areas was predicted by the space-excluded one. According to the best models, current distribution of these species can restrict future distribution, probably due to dispersal constraints and site fidelity. Species ranges would be expected to shift gradually over the studied time period and, therefore, we consider it unlikely that most of the current distribution of these species in southern Europe will disappear in less than one hundred years. Therefore, populations currently occupying suitable areas should be a priority for conservation policies. Our results also show that climate-only models may have low explanatory power, and could benefit from adjustments using information on other environmental variables and biological traits; if the latter are not available, including the geographic predictor may improve the reliability of predicted results.}, }
@article {pmid26936843, year = {2016}, author = {Liu, L and Zhang, X and Donnelly, A and Liu, X}, title = {Interannual variations in spring phenology and their response to climate change across the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2013.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {60}, number = {10}, pages = {1563-1575}, pmid = {26936843}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plant Development ; Satellite Imagery ; *Seasons ; Snow ; Temperature ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Land surface phenology has been widely used to evaluate the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in recent decades. Climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau (1960-2010, 0.2 °C/decade) has been found to be greater than the global average (1951-2012, 0.12 °C/decade), which has had a significant impact on the timing of spring greenup. However, the magnitude and direction of change in spring phenology and its response to warming temperature and precipitation are currently under scientific debate. In an attempt to explore this issue further, we detected the onset of greenup based on the time series of daily two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) long-term data record (LTDR; 1982-1999) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG; 2000-2013) using hybrid piecewise logistic models. Further, we examined the temporal trend in greenup onset in both individual pixels and ecoregions across the entire Tibetan Plateau over the following periods: 1982-1999, 2000-2013, and 1982-2013. The interannual variation in greenup onset was linked to the mean temperature and cumulative precipitation in the preceding month, and total precipitation during winter and spring, respectively. Finally, we investigated the relationship between interannual variation in greenup onset dates and temperature and precipitation from 1982 to 2013 at different elevational zones for different ecoregions. The results revealed no significant trend in the onset of greenup from 1982 to 2013 in more than 86 % of the Tibetan Plateau. For each study period, statistically significant earlier greenup trends were observed mainly in the eastern meadow regions while later greenup trends mainly occurred in the southwestern steppe and meadow regions both with areal coverage of less than 8 %. Although spring phenology was negatively correlated with spring temperature and precipitation in the majority of pixels (>60 %), only 15 % and 10 % of these correlations were significant (P < 0.1), respectively. Climate variables had varying effects on the ecoregions with altitude. In the meadow ecoregion, greenup onset was significantly affected by both temperature and precipitation from 3500 to 4000 m altitude and by temperature alone from 4000 to 4500 m. In contrast, greenup onset across all elevational zones, in the steppe ecoregion, was not directly driven by either spring temperature or precipitation, which was likely impacted by soil moisture associated with warming temperature. These findings highlight the complex impacts of climate change on spring phenology in the Tibetan Plateau.}, }
@article {pmid26935847, year = {2016}, author = {McBride, DL}, title = {How Climate Change Affects Children's Health.}, journal = {Journal of pediatric nursing}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {350-352}, doi = {10.1016/j.pedn.2016.02.003}, pmid = {26935847}, issn = {1532-8449}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; Child, Preschool ; Environmental Health/standards/*trends ; Female ; Forecasting ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Male ; Pediatrics ; Policy Making ; Risk Assessment ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, }
@article {pmid26927961, year = {2016}, author = {Bussi, G and Whitehead, PG and Bowes, MJ and Read, DS and Prudhomme, C and Dadson, SJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {572}, number = {}, pages = {1507-1519}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.109}, pmid = {26927961}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; England ; Models, Theoretical ; Phosphorus/*analysis ; Phytoplankton/*physiology ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Potential increases of phytoplankton concentrations in river systems due to global warming and changing climate could pose a serious threat to the anthropogenic use of surface waters. Nevertheless, the extent of the effect of climatic alterations on phytoplankton concentrations in river systems has not yet been analysed in detail. In this study, we assess the impact of a change in precipitation and temperature on river phytoplankton concentration by means of a physically-based model. A scenario-neutral methodology has been employed to evaluate the effects of climate alterations on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (southern England). In particular, five groups of phytoplankton are considered, representing a range of size classes and pigment phenotypes, under three different land-use/land-management scenarios to assess their impact on phytoplankton population levels. The model results are evaluated within the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, with the magnitude varying depending on the location along the River Thames. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increase in phytoplankton concentration, and in some cases, compensate for the effect of rising temperature.}, }
@article {pmid26925738, year = {2016}, author = {Tong, Y and Chen, L and Chi, J and Zhen, G and Zhang, Q and Wang, R and Yao, R and Zhang, W and Wang, X}, title = {Riverine nitrogen loss in the Tibetan Plateau and potential impacts of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {553}, number = {}, pages = {276-284}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.099}, pmid = {26925738}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been the subject of study on water circulation and global climate change. Given the environmental processes related to water outflows, there could be massive nutrient losses in the land surface of TP. In this study, we analyzed the nitrogen discharges of the major rivers flowing out of the TP based on the 5-year monitoring data. According to our calculation, the majority of nitrogen outflows were discharged through the upper Yangtze River and upper Huanghe River, representing ~29% and ~17% of total riverine outflows, respectively. In the entire nitrogen deficit in TP land surface, about 2.7 × 10(5)Mg/year was lost through riverine discharges. Due to the global warming, the changes of hydrologic processes in TP would possibly accelerate the riverine nitrogen outflows in the future.}, }
@article {pmid26925727, year = {2016}, author = {Liu, Y and Theller, LO and Pijanowski, BC and Engel, BA}, title = {Optimal selection and placement of green infrastructure to reduce impacts of land use change and climate change on hydrology and water quality: An application to the Trail Creek Watershed, Indiana.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {553}, number = {}, pages = {149-163}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.116}, pmid = {26925727}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Hydrology ; Indiana ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Urbanization/trends ; Water Pollution ; Water Quality/*standards ; }, abstract = {The adverse impacts of urbanization and climate change on hydrology and water quality can be mitigated by applying green infrastructure practices. In this study, the impacts of land use change and climate change on hydrology and water quality in the 153.2 km(2) Trail Creek watershed located in northwest Indiana were estimated using the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development 2.1 (L-THIA-LID 2.1) model for the following environmental concerns: runoff volume, Total Suspended Solids (TSS), Total Phosphorous (TP), Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen (TKN), and Nitrate+Nitrite (NOx). Using a recent 2001 land use map and 2050 land use forecasts, we found that land use change resulted in increased runoff volume and pollutant loads (8.0% to 17.9% increase). Climate change reduced runoff and nonpoint source pollutant loads (5.6% to 10.2% reduction). The 2050 forecasted land use with current rainfall resulted in the largest runoff volume and pollutant loads. The optimal selection and placement of green infrastructure practices using L-THIA-LID 2.1 model were conducted. Costs of applying green infrastructure were estimated using the L-THIA-LID 2.1 model considering construction, maintenance, and opportunity costs. To attain the same runoff volume and pollutant loads as in 2001 land uses for 2050 land uses, the runoff volume, TSS, TP, TKN, and NOx for 2050 needed to be reduced by 10.8%, 14.4%, 13.1%, 15.2%, and 9.0%, respectively. The corresponding annual costs of implementing green infrastructure to achieve the goals were $2.1, $0.8, $1.6, $1.9, and $0.8 million, respectively. Annual costs of reducing 2050 runoff volume/pollutant loads were estimated, and results show green infrastructure annual cost greatly increased for larger reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads. During optimization, the most cost-efficient green infrastructure practices were selected and implementation levels increased for greater reductions of runoff and nonpoint source pollutants.}, }
@article {pmid26920851, year = {2016}, author = {, }, title = {Position Statement On Climate Change.}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {115-118}, doi = {10.1177/1048291116633832}, pmid = {26920851}, issn = {1541-3772}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Environmental Pollution ; Humans ; Income ; *Social Justice ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people.}, }
@article {pmid26920650, year = {2016}, author = {Rézouki, C and Tafani, M and Cohas, A and Loison, A and Gaillard, JM and Allainé, D and Bonenfant, C}, title = {Socially mediated effects of climate change decrease survival of hibernating Alpine marmots.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {85}, number = {3}, pages = {761-773}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12507}, pmid = {26920650}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; *Climate Change ; France ; Hibernation ; Longitudinal Studies ; Marmota/*physiology ; *Snow ; *Social Behavior ; Survival Analysis ; }, abstract = {In the context of global change, an increasing challenge is to understand the interaction between weather variables and life histories. Species-specific life histories should condition the way climate influences population dynamics, particularly those that are associated with environmental constraints, such as lifestyles like hibernation and sociality. However, the influence of lifestyle in the response of organisms to climate change remains poorly understood. Based on a 23-year longitudinal study on Alpine marmots, we investigated how their lifestyle, characterized by a long hibernation and a high degree of sociality, interacts with the ongoing climate change to shape temporal variation in age-specific survival. As generally reported in other hibernating species, we expected survival of Alpine marmots to be affected by the continuous lengthening of the growing season of plants more than by changes in winter conditions. We found, however, that Alpine marmots displayed lower juvenile survival over time. Colder winters associated with a thinner snow layer lowered juvenile survival, which in turn was associated with a decrease in the relative number of helpers in groups the following years, and therefore lowered the chances of over-winter survival of juveniles born in the most recent years. Our results provide evidence that constraints on life-history traits associated with hibernation and sociality caused juvenile survival to decrease over time, which might prevent Alpine marmots coping successfully with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26918487, year = {2016}, author = {Kovach, RP and Luikart, G and Lowe, WH and Boyer, MC and Muhlfeld, CC}, title = {Risk and efficacy of human-enabled interspecific hybridization for climate-change adaptation: response to Hamilton and Miller (2016).}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {30}, number = {2}, pages = {428-430}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12678}, pmid = {26918487}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Risk ; }, }
@article {pmid26917646, year = {2016}, author = {Guggenheim, R}, title = {The health threat of climate change: working in partnership with patients.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {66}, number = {644}, pages = {149}, pmid = {26917646}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; *Environmental Health ; Environmental Illness/*prevention &amp; control ; *General Practice ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Physician's Role ; *Public Opinion ; Risk Factors ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid26917307, year = {2016}, author = {Grose, J and Richardson, J and Mills, I and Moles, D and Nasser, M}, title = {Exploring attitudes and knowledge of climate change and sustainability in a dental practice: A feasibility study into resource management.}, journal = {British dental journal}, volume = {220}, number = {4}, pages = {187-191}, pmid = {26917307}, issn = {1476-5373}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Dental Assistants ; Dentists ; Feasibility Studies ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; *Practice Management, Dental ; Qualitative Research ; }, abstract = {Objective To understand the attitudes and behaviour of staff in dental practice towards adopting a reduce, reuse, recycle approach to resource management.Design A qualitative interview study.Setting The site for the study was a mixed NHS/private dental practice in North Devon.Subjects All disciplines from one dental practice.Methods (1) A practice scoping exercise - provided context and identified an interview sample. (2) Qualitative interviews with practice staff - explored knowledge and attitudes about sustainability and identified opportunities and limitations for the sustainable management of resources.Results The main issue raised by staff was the amount of waste generated. There was a strong desire to implement changes, but deep concerns were expressed about the impact of challenging current guidance on infection control.Conclusions Primary care dentistry provides both surgical and non-surgical care to more than half the UK population. Therefore, lessons learned from general dental practice can encourage positive change. More research is needed across dental practice in order to generalise these findings.}, }
@article {pmid26915561, year = {2016}, author = {Trisurat, Y and Eawpanich, P and Kalliola, R}, title = {Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {147}, number = {}, pages = {611-620}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2016.02.019}, pmid = {26915561}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; *Forests ; Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; Soil ; Thailand ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region.}, }
@article {pmid26915204, year = {2015}, author = {Liu, JG and Zhu, QA and Shen, Y and Yang, YZ and Luo, YP and Peng, CH}, title = {[Spatiotemporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under future climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {3467-3474}, pmid = {26915204}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Methane/*analysis ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Based on a new process-based model, TRIPLEX-GHG, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under different future climate change scenarios. When natural wetland distributions were fixed, the amount of CH4 emissions from natural wetland ecosystem over China would increase by 32.0%, 55.3% and 90.8% by the end of 21st century under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP2. 6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the current level. Southern China would have higher CH4 emissions compared to that from central and northern China. Besides, there would be relatively low emission fluxes in western China while relatively high emission fluxes in eastern China. Spatially, the areas with relatively high CH4 emission fluxes would be concentrated in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Northeast and the coasts of the Pearl River. In the future, most natural wetlands would emit more CH4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than that of 2005. However, under RCP2.6 scenario, the increasing trend would be curbed and CH4 emissions (especially from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau) begin to decrease in the late 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid26914075, year = {2016}, author = {Ferrero, F and Torres, F and Abrutzky, R and Ossorio, MF and Marcos, A and Ferrario, C and Rial, MJ}, title = {Seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus in Buenos Aires. Relationship with global climate change.}, journal = {Archivos argentinos de pediatria}, volume = {114}, number = {1}, pages = {52-55}, doi = {10.5546/aap.2016.eng.52}, pmid = {26914075}, issn = {1668-3501}, mesh = {Argentina/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Humans ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/*epidemiology ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human/isolation &amp; purification ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Global climate change circulation pattern respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). We assessed whether RSV season has changed over the past 20 years and its correlation with mean annual temperature.<br><br>METHODS: Cross-sectional study that included records of RSV and temperatures from Buenos Aires (1995-2014). RSV season onset, offset and duration, and its correlation with mean annual temperature were described for each year.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 8109 RSV infections were identified. The duration of RSV season reduced significantly (1995: 29 weeks vs. 2014: 17 weeks; R: 0.6; p < 0.001) due to an early ending (1995: week 45 vs. 2014: week 33; R: 0.6; p < 0.001). No correlation was observed between mean annual temperature and RSV season start, end and duration.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Over the past 20 years, RSV season shortened significantly, but no correlation with temperature was observed.}, }
@article {pmid26910944, year = {2015}, author = {Mokany, K and Thomson, JJ and Lynch, JJ and Jordan, GJ and Ferrier, S}, title = {Linking changes in community composition and function under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {2132-2141}, doi = {10.1890/14-2384.1}, pmid = {26910944}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Biological ; Plants/*classification ; Tasmania ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to directly alter the composition of communities and the functioning of ecosystems across the globe. Improving our understanding of links between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning across large spatial scales and rapid global change is a major priority to help identify management responses that will retain diverse, functioning systems. Here we address this challenge by linking projected changes in plant community composition and functional attributes (height, leaf area, seed mass) under climate change across Tasmania, Australia. Using correlative community-level modeling, we found that projected changes in plant community composition were not consistently related to projected changes in community mean trait values. In contrast, we identified specific mechanisms through which alternative combinations of projected functional and compositional change across Tasmania could be realized, including loss/replacement of functionally similar species (lowland grasslands/grassy woodlands) and loss of a small number of functionally unique species (lowland forests). Importantly, we demonstrate how these linked projections of change in community composition and functional attributes can be utilized to inform specific management actions that may assist in maintaining diverse, functioning ecosystems under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26910940, year = {2015}, author = {Dettinger, M and Udall, B and Georgakakos, A}, title = {Western water and climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {2069-2093}, doi = {10.1890/15-0938.1}, pmid = {26910940}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Floods ; Groundwater ; Rain ; Rivers ; Snow ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; United States ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.}, }
@article {pmid26910389, year = {2016}, author = {Ficetola, GF and Colleoni, E and Renaud, J and Scali, S and Padoa-Schioppa, E and Thuiller, W}, title = {Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {2013-2024}, pmid = {26910389}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {281422/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Geography ; Middle East ; Models, Biological ; Spine/*anatomy &amp; histology ; Temperature ; Urodela/*anatomy &amp; histology ; }, abstract = {Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species' persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring species persistence.}, }
@article {pmid26910245, year = {2016}, author = {Chandler, HC and Rypel, AL and Jiao, Y and Haas, CA and Gorman, TA}, title = {Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {e0150169}, pmid = {26910245}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Ambystoma/*physiology ; Animals ; *Climate ; *Models, Biological ; Reproduction ; Southeastern United States ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi), a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006-2014) of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896-2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis). Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid26908366, year = {2016}, author = {Li, H and Jiang, J and Chen, B and Li, Y and Xu, Y and Shen, W}, title = {Pattern of NDVI-based vegetation greening along an altitudinal gradient in the eastern Himalayas and its response to global warming.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {188}, number = {3}, pages = {186}, pmid = {26908366}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; China ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; *Plants ; *Satellite Imagery ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The eastern Himalayas, especially the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon Nature Reserve (YNR), is a global hotspot of biodiversity because of a wide variety of climatic conditions and elevations ranging from 500 to > 7000 m above sea level (a.s.l.). The mountain ecosystems at different elevations are vulnerable to climate change; however, there has been little research into the patterns of vegetation greening and their response to global warming. The objective of this paper is to examine the pattern of vegetation greening in different altitudinal zones in the YNR and its relationship with vegetation types and climatic factors. Specifically, the inter-annual change of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its variation along altitudinal gradient between 1999 and 2013 was investigated using SPOT-VGT NDVI data and ASTER global digital elevation model (GDEM) data. We found that annual NDVI increased by 17.58% in the YNR from 1999 to 2013, especially in regions dominated by broad-leaved and coniferous forests at lower elevations. The vegetation greening rate decreased significantly as elevation increased, with a threshold elevation of approximately 3000 m. Rising temperature played a dominant role in driving the increase in NDVI, while precipitation has no statistical relationship with changes in NDVI in this region. This study provides useful information to develop an integrated management and conservation plan for climate change adaptation and promote biodiversity conservation in the YNR.}, }
@article {pmid26906144, year = {2016}, author = {Feng, B and Zhao, Q and Xu, J and Qin, J and Yang, ZL}, title = {Drainage isolation and climate change-driven population expansion shape the genetic structures of Tuber indicum complex in the Hengduan Mountains region.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {21811}, pmid = {26906144}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Ascomycota/*genetics ; China ; *Climate Change ; Evolution, Molecular ; Gene Flow ; Genes, Fungal ; Groundwater ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {The orogenesis of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Quaternary climate changes have played key roles in driving the evolution of flora and fauna in Southwest China, but their effects on higher fungi are poorly addressed. In this study, we investigated the phylogeographic pattern of the Tuber indicum species complex, an economically important fungal group distributed in the Hengduan Mountains region. Our data confirmed the existence of two distinct lineages, T. indicum and T. himalayense, within this species complex. Three geographic groups (Groups W, N and C) were revealed within T. indicum, with Group W found in the paleo-Lancang River region, while Groups N and C corresponded to the two banks along the contemporary Jinsha River, suggesting that rivers have acted as barriers for gene flow among populations from different drainages. Historical range expansion resulted from climate changes was inferred in Group C, contributing to the observed gene flow among geographic populations within this group. Although no significant geographic structure was identified in T. himalayense, evidence of drainage isolation for this species was also detected. Our findings demonstrate that both topographic changes and Quaternary climate oscillations have played important roles in driving the genetic structures of the T. indicum species complex.}, }
@article {pmid26906017, year = {2016}, author = {Höflich, C and Balakirski, G and Hajdu, Z and Baron, JM and Kaiser, L and Czaja, K and Merk, HF and Gerdsen, S and Strassen, U and Bas, M and Bier, H and Dott, W and Mücke, HG and Straff, W and Chaker, A and Röseler, S}, title = {Potential health risk of allergenic pollen with climate change associated spreading capacity: Ragweed and olive sensitization in two German federal states.}, journal = {International journal of hygiene and environmental health}, volume = {219}, number = {3}, pages = {252-260}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijheh.2016.01.007}, pmid = {26906017}, issn = {1618-131X}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Allergens/*immunology ; Ambrosia/*immunology ; Artemisia/immunology ; Betula/immunology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Fraxinus/immunology ; Germany/epidemiology ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/blood/diagnosis/*epidemiology/immunology ; Immunoglobulin E/blood ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Odds Ratio ; Olea/*immunology ; Pollen/*immunology ; Risk ; Skin Tests ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global climate changes may influence the geographical spread of allergenic plants thus causing new allergen challenges.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: Allergy patients from two German federal states were compared for their status quo sensitization to ragweed, an establishing allergen, olive, a non-established allergen, and the native allergens birch, mugwort, and ash.<br><br>METHODS: Between 2011 and 2013, 476 adult allergy patients per region were recruited. Patients completed a questionnaire, participated in a medical interview, and underwent skin prick testing and blood withdrawal for analysis of specific IgE to allergen components (ISAC technology). Data on regional pollen load from 2006 to 2011 were acquired from the German Pollen Information Service Foundation.<br><br>RESULTS: Prick test reactivity to ragweed and ash, respectively, was lower in Bavaria than in NRW (ragweed: p=0.001, aOR=0.54; ash: p=0.001, aOR=0.59), whereas prick test reactivity to olive was higher (p=0.000, aOR=3.09). Prick test reactivity to birch and mugwort, respectively, did not significantly differ. 1% (1/127) of patients with prick test reactivity to ragweed showed sIgE to Amb a 1, and 65% (86/132) of olive-but-not-ash reactive patients showed sIgE to Ole e 1 (NRW: 67%, Bavaria: 65%; p=0.823, OR=0.91). Regional differences in sensitization pattern were neither explainable by cross-reactivity to pollen pan-allergens nor non-exposure variables nor by reported plant population or pollen data.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Spread of ragweed and particularly olive may result in prompt occurrence of allergic symptoms. Early identification of invasive allergens due to climate change does need time and spatial close meshed measurement of respective indicator allergens and sensitization pattern.}, }
@article {pmid26904762, year = {2015}, author = {Gross, M}, title = {How nature copes with climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {25}, number = {22}, pages = {R1057-9}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2015.10.058}, pmid = {26904762}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Nature ; }, abstract = {As the world is about to find out whether or not our civilisation is up to the challenge of dealing with climate change, research shows a wide range of responses from other species, which may benefit or suffer from the change, and mitigate it or make it worse. Michael Gross reports.}, }
@article {pmid26903924, year = {2016}, author = {Fielding, KS and Hornsey, MJ}, title = {A Social Identity Analysis of Climate Change and Environmental Attitudes and Behaviors: Insights and Opportunities.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {121}, pmid = {26903924}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {Environmental challenges are often marked by an intergroup dimension. Political conservatives and progressives are divided on their beliefs about climate change, farmers come into conflict with scientists and environmentalists over water allocation or species protection, and communities oppose big business and mining companies that threaten their local environment. These intergroup tensions are reminders of the powerful influence social contexts and group memberships can have on attitudes, beliefs, and actions relating to climate change and the environment more broadly. In this paper, we use social identity theory to help describe and explain these processes. We review literature showing, how conceiving of oneself in terms of a particular social identity influences our environmental attitudes and behaviors, how relations between groups can impact on environmental outcomes, and how the content of social identities can direct group members to act in more or less pro-environmental ways. We discuss the similarities and differences between the social identity approach to these phenomena and related theories, such as cultural cognition theory, the theory of planned behavior, and value-belief-norm theory. Importantly, we also advance social-identity based strategies to foster more sustainable environmental attitudes and behaviors. Although this theoretical approach can provide important insights and potential solutions, more research is needed to build the empirical base, especially in relation to testing social identity solutions.}, }
@article {pmid26903635, year = {2016}, author = {Barton, AD and Irwin, AJ and Finkel, ZV and Stock, CA}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {11}, pages = {2964-2969}, pmid = {26903635}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; *Biota ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Phytoplankton/classification/*physiology ; Population Dynamics/trends ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951-2000) and future (2051-2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec(-1)), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec(-1) The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles.}, }
@article {pmid26901827, year = {2016}, author = {Sainju, UM}, title = {A Global Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Management Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Cropland Soils.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {e0148527}, pmid = {26901827}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Crops, Agricultural ; Female ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Male ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Management practices, such as tillage, crop rotation, and N fertilization, may affect net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI), but their global impact on cropland soils under different soil and climatic conditions need further evaluation. Available global data from 57 experiments and 225 treatments were evaluated for individual and combined effects of tillage, cropping systems, and N fertilization rates on GWP and GHGI which accounted for CO2 equivalents from N2O and CH4 emissions with or without equivalents from soil C sequestration rate (ΔSOC), farm operations, and N fertilization. The GWP and GHGI were 66 to 71% lower with no-till than conventional till and 168 to 215% lower with perennial than annual cropping systems, but 41 to 46% greater with crop rotation than monocroppping. With no-till vs. conventional till, GWP and GHGI were 2.6- to 7.4-fold lower when partial than full accounting of all sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs) were considered. With 100 kg N ha-1, GWP and GHGI were 3.2 to 11.4 times greater with partial than full accounting. Both GWP and GHGI increased curvilinearly with increased N fertilization rate. Net GWP and GHGI were 70 to 87% lower in the improved combined management that included no-till, crop rotation/perennial crop, and reduced N rate than the traditional combined management that included conventional till, monocopping/annual crop, and recommended N rate. An alternative soil respiration method, which replaces ΔSOC by soil respiration and crop residue returned to soil in the previous year, similarly reduced GWP and GHGI by 133 to 158% in the improved vs. the traditional combined management. Changes in GWP and GHGI due to improved vs. traditional management varied with the duration of the experiment and inclusion of soil and climatic factors in multiple linear regressions improved their relationships. Improved management practices reduced GWP and GHGI compared with traditional management practices and combined management practices were even more effective than individual management practices in reducing net GHG emissions from cropland soils. Partial accounting overestimated GWP and GHGI values as sinks or sources of net GHGs compared with full accounting when evaluating the effect of management practices.}, }
@article {pmid26901409, year = {2016}, author = {Delaney, A and Tamás, PA and Crane, TA and Chesterman, S}, title = {Systematic Review of Methods in Low-Consensus Fields: Supporting Commensuration through `Construct-Centered Methods Aggregation' in the Case of Climate Change Vulnerability Research.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {e0149071}, pmid = {26901409}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Research Design ; }, abstract = {There is increasing interest in using systematic review to synthesize evidence on the social and environmental effects of and adaptations to climate change. Use of systematic review for evidence in this field is complicated by the heterogeneity of methods used and by uneven reporting. In order to facilitate synthesis of results and design of subsequent research a method, construct-centered methods aggregation, was designed to 1) provide a transparent, valid and reliable description of research methods, 2) support comparability of primary studies and 3) contribute to a shared empirical basis for improving research practice. Rather than taking research reports at face value, research designs are reviewed through inductive analysis. This involves bottom-up identification of constructs, definitions and operationalizations; assessment of concepts' commensurability through comparison of definitions; identification of theoretical frameworks through patterns of construct use; and integration of transparently reported and valid operationalizations into ideal-type research frameworks. Through the integration of reliable bottom-up inductive coding from operationalizations and top-down coding driven from stated theory with expert interpretation, construct-centered methods aggregation enabled both resolution of heterogeneity within identically named constructs and merging of differently labeled but identical constructs. These two processes allowed transparent, rigorous and contextually sensitive synthesis of the research presented in an uneven set of reports undertaken in a heterogenous field. If adopted more broadly, construct-centered methods aggregation may contribute to the emergence of a valid, empirically-grounded description of methods used in primary research. These descriptions may function as a set of expectations that improves the transparency of reporting and as an evolving comprehensive framework that supports both interpretation of existing and design of future research.}, }
@article {pmid26900154, year = {2015}, author = {Witt, C and Schubert, AJ and Jehn, M and Holzgreve, A and Liebers, U and Endlicher, W and Scherer, D}, title = {The Effects of Climate Change on Patients With Chronic Lung Disease. A Systematic Literature Review.}, journal = {Deutsches Arzteblatt international}, volume = {112}, number = {51-52}, pages = {878-883}, pmid = {26900154}, issn = {1866-0452}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Chronic Disease ; Climate Change/*mortality/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality ; Humans ; Lung Diseases/diagnosis/*epidemiology/*mortality ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors ; Survival Rate ; *Weather ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Ever since higher overall mortality rates due to heat stress were reported during the European heat waves of 2003 and 2006, the relation between heat waves and disease-specific events has been an object of scientific study. The effects of heat waves on the morbidity and mortality of persons with chronic lung disease remain unclear.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a systematic search using PubMed, the Cochrane Library, and Google Advanced Search to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2015. The reference lists of the primarily included articles were searched for further pertinent articles. All articles were selected according to the PRISMA guidelines. The heat-wave-related relative excess mortality was descriptively expressed as a mean daily rate ratio ([incidence 1]/[incidence 2]), and the cumulative excess risk (CER) was expressed in percent.<br><br>RESULTS: 33 studies with evaluable raw data concerning the effect of heat waves on patients with chronic lung disease (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, bronchial asthma, pulmonary arterial hypertension, and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis) were analyzed in this review. By deriving statistics from the overall data set, we arrived at the conclusion that future heat waves will-with at least 90% probability-result in a mean daily excess mortality (expressed as a rate ratio) of at least 1.018, and-with 50% probability-in a mean daily excess mortality of at least 1.028. These figures correspond, respectively, to 1.8% and 2.8% rises in the daily risk of death.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Heat waves significantly increase morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic lung disease. The argument that the excess mortality during heat waves is compensated for by a decrease in mortality in the subsequent weeks/months (mortality displacement) should not be used as an excuse for delay in implementing adaptive strategies to protect lung patients from this risk to their health.}, }
@article {pmid26890212, year = {2016}, author = {Shortridge, JE and Guikema, SD}, title = {Scenario Discovery with Multiple Criteria: An Evaluation of the Robust Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {36}, number = {12}, pages = {2298-2312}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12582}, pmid = {26890212}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {There is increasing concern over deep uncertainty in the risk analysis field as probabilistic models of uncertainty cannot always be confidently determined or agreed upon for many of our most pressing contemporary risk challenges. This is particularly true in the climate change adaptation field, and has prompted the development of a number of frameworks aiming to characterize system vulnerabilities and identify robust alternatives. One such methodology is robust decision making (RDM), which uses simulation models to assess how strategies perform over many plausible conditions and then identifies and characterizes those where the strategy fails in a process termed scenario discovery. While many of the problems to which RDM has been applied are characterized by multiple objectives, research to date has provided little insight into how treatment of multiple criteria impacts the failure scenarios identified. In this research, we compare different methods for incorporating multiple objectives into the scenario discovery process to evaluate how they impact the resulting failure scenarios. We use the Lake Tana basin in Ethiopia as a case study, where climatic and environmental uncertainties could impact multiple planned water infrastructure projects, and find that failure scenarios may vary depending on the method used to aggregate multiple criteria. Common methods used to convert multiple attributes into a single utility score can obscure connections between failure scenarios and system performance, limiting the information provided to support decision making. Applying scenario discovery over each performance metric separately provides more nuanced information regarding the relative sensitivity of the objectives to different uncertain parameters, leading to clearer insights on measures that could be taken to improve system robustness and areas where additional research might prove useful.}, }
@article {pmid26888225, year = {2016}, author = {Alatalo, JM and Jägerbrand, AK and Molau, U}, title = {Impacts of different climate change regimes and extreme climatic events on an alpine meadow community.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {21720}, pmid = {26888225}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Climate Change ; *Grassland ; Plant Development ; }, abstract = {Climate variability is expected to increase in future but there exist very few experimental studies that apply different warming regimes on plant communities over several years. We studied an alpine meadow community under three warming regimes over three years. Treatments consisted of (a) a constant level of warming with open-top chambers (ca. 1.9 °C above ambient), (b) yearly stepwise increases in warming (increases of ca. 1.0, 1.9 and 3.5 °C), and (c) pulse warming, a single first-year pulse event of warming (increase of ca. 3.5 °C). Pulse warming and stepwise warming was hypothesised to cause distinct first-year and third-year effects, respectively. We found support for both hypotheses; however, the responses varied among measurement levels (whole community, canopy, bottom layer, and plant functional groups), treatments, and time. Our study revealed complex responses of the alpine plant community to the different experimentally imposed climate warming regimes. Plant cover, height and biomass frequently responded distinctly to the constant level of warming, the stepwise increase in warming and the extreme pulse-warming event. Notably, we found that stepwise warming had an accumulating effect on biomass, the responses to the different warming regimes varied among functional groups, and the short-term perturbations had negative effect on species richness and diversity.}, }
@article {pmid26888035, year = {2016}, author = {Lo, N and Tong, KJ and Rose, HA and Ho, SY and Beninati, T and Low, DL and Matsumoto, T and Maekawa, K}, title = {Multiple evolutionary origins of Australian soil-burrowing cockroaches driven by climate change in the Neogene.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {283}, number = {1825}, pages = {20152869}, pmid = {26888035}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Cockroaches/*genetics ; DNA, Ribosomal Spacer/genetics ; Insect Proteins/genetics ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {Parallel evolution is the independent appearance of similar derived phenotypes from similar ancestral forms. It is of key importance in the debate over whether evolution is stochastic and unpredictable, or subject to constraints that limit available phenotypic options. Nevertheless, its occurrence has rarely been demonstrated above the species level. Climate change on the Australian landmass over the last approximately 20 Myr has provided conditions conducive to parallel evolution, as taxa at the edges of shrinking mesic habitats adapted to drier biomes. Here, we investigate the phylogeny and evolution of Australian soil-burrowing and wood-feeding blaberid cockroaches. Soil burrowers (subfamily Geoscapheinae) are found in relatively dry sclerophyllous and scrubland habits, whereas wood feeders (subfamily Panesthiinae) are found in rainforest and wet sclerophyll. We sequenced and analysed mitochondrial and nuclear markers from 142 specimens, and estimated the evolutionary time scale of the two subfamilies. We found evidence for the parallel evolution of soil-burrowing taxa from wood-feeding ancestors on up to nine occasions. These transitions appear to have been driven by periods of aridification during the Miocene and Pliocene across eastern Australia. Our results provide an illuminating example of climate-driven parallel evolution among species.}, }
@article {pmid26882735, year = {2015}, author = {Herman, B}, title = {Prescribing a climate remedy. Healthcare leaders aim to influence international climate change negotiations.}, journal = {Modern healthcare}, volume = {45}, number = {46}, pages = {20-22}, pmid = {26882735}, issn = {0160-7480}, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; *Internationality ; *Leadership ; *Negotiating ; }, }
@article {pmid26878977, year = {2016}, author = {Paoletti, E and Sicard, P}, title = {Preface to the IUFRO RG7.01 special section "Global Challenges of Air Pollution and Climate Change to Forests".}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {213}, number = {}, pages = {975-976}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2016.02.011}, pmid = {26878977}, issn = {1873-6424}, }
@article {pmid26876243, year = {2016}, author = {Fenberg, PB and Self, A and Stewart, JR and Wilson, RJ and Brooks, SJ}, title = {Exploring the universal ecological responses to climate change in a univoltine butterfly.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {85}, number = {3}, pages = {739-748}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12492}, pmid = {26876243}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; Butterflies/anatomy &amp; histology/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Climate Change ; England ; Female ; Life Cycle Stages/*physiology ; Male ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; Wings, Animal/anatomy &amp; histology ; }, abstract = {Animals with distinct life stages are often exposed to different temperatures during each stage. Thus, how temperature affects these life stages should be considered for broadly understanding the ecological consequences of climate warming on such species. For example, temperature variation during particular life stages may affect respective change in body size, phenology and geographic range, which have been identified as the "universal" ecological responses to climate change. While each of these responses has been separately documented across a number of species, it is not known whether each response occurs together within a species. The influence of temperature during particular life stages may help explain each of these ecological responses to climate change. Our goal was to determine if monthly temperature variation during particular life stages of a butterfly species can predict respective changes in body size and phenology. We also refer to the literature to assess if temperature variability during the adult stage influences range change over time. Using historical museum collections paired with monthly temperature records, we show that changes in body size and phenology of the univoltine butterfly, Hesperia comma, are partly dependent upon temporal variation in summer temperatures during key stages of their life cycle. June temperatures, which are likely to affect growth rate of the final larval instar, are important for predicting adult body size (for males only; showing a positive relationship with temperature). July temperatures, which are likely to influence the pupal stage, are important for predicting the timing of adult emergence (showing a negative relationship with temperature). Previous studies show that August temperatures, which act on the adult stage, are linked to range change. Our study highlights the importance of considering temperature variation during each life stage over historic time-scales for understanding intraspecific response to climate change. Range edge studies of ectothermic species that have annual life cycles, long time-series occurrence data, and associated temperature records (ideally at monthly resolutions) could be useful model systems for intraspecific tests of the universal ecological responses to climate change and for exploring interactive effects.}, }
@article {pmid26875603, year = {2016}, author = {Sánchez-Arcilla, A and García-León, M and Gracia, V and Devoy, R and Stanica, A and Gault, J}, title = {Managing coastal environments under climate change: Pathways to adaptation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {572}, number = {}, pages = {1336-1352}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.01.124}, pmid = {26875603}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This paper deals with the question of how to manage vulnerable coastal systems so as to make them sustainable under present and future climates. This is interpreted in terms of the coastal functionality, mainly natural services and support for socio-economic activities. From here we discuss how to adapt for long term trends and for short terms episodic events using the DPSIR framework. The analysis is presented for coastal archetypes from Spain, Ireland and Romania, sweeping a range of meteo-oceanographic and socio-economic pressures, resulting in a wide range of fluxes among them those related to sediment. The analysis emphasizes the variables that provide a higher level of robustness. That means mean sea level for physical factors and population density for human factors. For each of the studied cases high and low sustainability practices, based on stakeholders preferences, are considered and discussed. This allows proposing alternatives and carrying out an integrated assessment in the last section of the paper. This assessment permits building a sequence of interventions called adaptation pathway that enhances the natural resilience of the studied coastal systems and therefore increases their sustainability under present and future conditions.}, }
@article {pmid26875366, year = {2015}, author = {Benjamin, G and Robeznieks, A}, title = {'People need convincing there's something you can do about climate change'.}, journal = {Modern healthcare}, volume = {45}, number = {44}, pages = {38-39}, pmid = {26875366}, issn = {0160-7480}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Firearms ; Persuasive Communication ; *Societies, Scientific ; United States ; Violence/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid26873061, year = {2016}, author = {Sicard, P and Augustaitis, A and Belyazid, S and Calfapietra, C and de Marco, A and Fenn, M and Bytnerowicz, A and Grulke, N and He, S and Matyssek, R and Serengil, Y and Wieser, G and Paoletti, E}, title = {Global topics and novel approaches in the study of air pollution, climate change and forest ecosystems.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {213}, number = {}, pages = {977-987}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2016.01.075}, pmid = {26873061}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis/pharmacology/toxicity ; *Air Pollution ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Droughts ; *Forests ; Humans ; Nitrogen/analysis/*pharmacology ; Ozone/*toxicity ; Research ; Stress, Physiological ; Trees/drug effects/*physiology ; Water ; }, abstract = {Research directions from the 27th conference for Specialists in Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Forest Ecosystems (2015) reflect knowledge advancements about (i) Mechanistic bases of tree responses to multiple climate and pollution stressors, in particular the interaction of ozone (O3) with nitrogen (N) deposition and drought; (ii) Linking genetic control with physiological whole-tree activity; (iii) Epigenetic responses to climate change and air pollution; (iv) Embedding individual tree performance into the multi-factorial stand-level interaction network; (v) Interactions of biogenic and anthropogenic volatile compounds (molecular, functional and ecological bases); (vi) Estimating the potential for carbon/pollution mitigation and cost effectiveness of urban and peri-urban forests; (vii) Selection of trees adapted to the urban environment; (viii) Trophic, competitive and host/parasite relationships under changing pollution and climate; (ix) Atmosphere-biosphere-pedosphere interactions as affected by anthropospheric changes; (x) Statistical analyses for epidemiological investigations; (xi) Use of monitoring for the validation of models; (xii) Holistic view for linking the climate, carbon, N and O3 modelling; (xiii) Inclusion of multiple environmental stresses (biotic and abiotic) in critical load determinations; (xiv) Ecological impacts of N deposition in the under-investigated areas; (xv) Empirical models for mechanistic effects at the local scale; (xvi) Broad-scale N and sulphur deposition input and their effects on forest ecosystem services; (xvii) Measurements of dry deposition of N; (xviii) Assessment of evapotranspiration; (xix) Remote sensing assessment of hydrological parameters; and (xx) Forest management for maximizing water provision and overall forest ecosystem services. Ground-level O3 is still the phytotoxic air pollutant of major concern to forest health. Specific issues about O3 are: (xxi) Developing dose-response relationships and stomatal O3 flux parameterizations for risk assessment, especially, in under-investigated regions; (xxii) Defining biologically based O3 standards for protection thresholds and critical levels; (xxiii) Use of free-air exposure facilities; (xxiv) Assessing O3 impacts on forest ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid26872153, year = {2016}, author = {Henle, K and Gawel, E and Ring, I and Strunz, S}, title = {Promoting nuclear energy to sustain biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change: response to Brook and Bradshaw 2015.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {663-665}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12691}, pmid = {26872153}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Nuclear Energy ; }, }
@article {pmid26869569, year = {2016}, author = {Lugsdin, J and Hook, C}, title = {Climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {387}, number = {10017}, pages = {431}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00172-0}, pmid = {26869569}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid26869568, year = {2016}, author = {Dai, J and Xu, C and Liao, L and An, H}, title = {Climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {387}, number = {10017}, pages = {431-432}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00173-2}, pmid = {26869568}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid26869567, year = {2016}, author = {Pradyumna, A and Guinto, R}, title = {Climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {387}, number = {10017}, pages = {430-431}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00171-9}, pmid = {26869567}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid26869566, year = {2016}, author = {Kuruppu, N and Capon, A}, title = {Climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {387}, number = {10017}, pages = {430}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00170-7}, pmid = {26869566}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid26868185, year = {2016}, author = {Ren, Z and Wang, D and Ma, A and Hwang, J and Bennett, A and Sturrock, HJ and Fan, J and Zhang, W and Yang, D and Feng, X and Xia, Z and Zhou, XN and Wang, J}, title = {Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {20604}, pmid = {26868185}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Eradication ; Environment ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*parasitology ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*parasitology/prevention &amp; control ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.}, }
@article {pmid26867481, year = {2016}, author = {Yin, Y and Tang, Q and Wang, L and Liu, X}, title = {Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {20905}, pmid = {26867481}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Carbon Cycle ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Factors ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26865962, year = {2016}, author = {Taylor, S and Kumar, L}, title = {Will climate change impact the potential distribution of a native vine (Merremia peltata) which is behaving invasively in the Pacific region?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {742-754}, pmid = {26865962}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Merremia peltata is a species with uncertain status in the island nations of the Pacific region. It has been designated introduced and invasive in some countries whereas it is considered native in others. Recent increase in its abundance across some island landscapes have led to calls for its designation as an invasive species of environmental concern with biological control being suggested as a control strategy. Climate change will add to the complications of managing this species since changes in climate will influence its range limits. In this study, we develop a process-oriented niche model of M. peltata using CLIMEX to investigate the impacts of climate change on its potential distribution. Information on the climatic requirements of M. peltata and its current geographic distribution were used to calibrate the model. The results indicate that under current climate, 273,132 km(2) of the land area in the region is climatically unsuitable or marginal for M. peltata whereas 664,524 km(2) is suitable to highly suitable. Under current climate, areas of climatic suitability for M. peltata were identified on the archipelagos of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. By the end of the century, some archipelagos like Fiji, Hawaii, New Caledonia and Vanuatu will probably become more suitable while PNG and Solomon Islands become less suitable for M. peltata. The results can be used to inform biosecurity planning, management and conservation strategies on islands.}, }
@article {pmid26863972, year = {2016}, author = {Magnan, AK}, title = {Climate change: Metrics needed to track adaptation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {530}, number = {7589}, pages = {160}, doi = {10.1038/530160d}, pmid = {26863972}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Human Activities ; *International Cooperation ; Temperature ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid26863968, year = {2016}, author = {Covington, H and Thornton, J and Hepburn, C}, title = {Global warming: Shareholders must vote for climate-change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {530}, number = {7589}, pages = {156}, pmid = {26863968}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Congresses as Topic ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Federal Government ; Global Warming/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; Investments/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Paris ; }, }
@article {pmid26859521, year = {2016}, author = {Marquès, M and Mari, M and Audí-Miró, C and Sierra, J and Soler, A and Nadal, M and Domingo, JL}, title = {Climate change impact on the PAH photodegradation in soils: Characterization and metabolites identification.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {89-90}, number = {}, pages = {155-165}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2016.01.019}, pmid = {26859521}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Catalysis ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Light ; Models, Theoretical ; *Photolysis ; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/*analysis/radiation effects ; Soil/*chemistry ; Soil Pollutants/*analysis/radiation effects ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are airborne pollutants that are deposited on soils. As climate change is already altering temperature and solar radiation, the global warming is suggested to impact the environmental fate of PAHs. This study was aimed at evaluating the effect of climate change on the PAH photodegradation in soils. Samples of Mediterranean soils were subjected to different temperature and light radiation conditions in a climate chamber. Two climate scenarios were considered according to IPCC projections: 1) a base (B) scenario, being temperature and light intensity 20°C and 9.6W/m(2), respectively, and 2) a climate change (CC) scenario, working at 24°C and 24W/m(2), respectively. As expected, low molecular weight PAHs were rapidly volatilized when increasing both temperature and light intensity. In contrast, medium and high molecular weight PAHs presented different photodegradation rates in soils with different texture, which was likely related to the amount of photocatalysts contained in both soils. In turn, the hydrogen isotopic composition of some of the PAHs under study was also investigated to verify any degradation process. Hydrogen isotopes confirmed that benzo(a)pyrene is degraded in both B and CC scenarios, not only under light but also in the darkness, revealing unknown degradation processes occurring when light is lacking. Potential generation pathways of PAH photodegradation by-products were also suggested, being a higher number of metabolites formed in the CC scenario. Consequently, in a more or less near future, although humans might be less exposed to PAHs, they could be exposed to new metabolites of these pollutants, which might be even more toxic.}, }
@article {pmid26857714, year = {2016}, author = {Al-Yousfi, AB and Neira, M and Bakir, H}, title = {Confronting climate change in the EMR: a win-win public health approach.}, journal = {Eastern Mediterranean health journal = La revue de sante de la Mediterranee orientale = al-Majallah al-sihhiyah li-sharq al-mutawassit}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {781-782}, doi = {10.26719/2015.21.11.781}, pmid = {26857714}, issn = {1020-3397}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Mediterranean Region ; *Public Health ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid26857170, year = {2016}, author = {Adua, L and York, R and Schuelke-Leech, BA}, title = {The human dimensions of climate change: A micro-level assessment of views from the ecological modernization, political economy and human ecology perspectives.}, journal = {Social science research}, volume = {56}, number = {}, pages = {26-43}, doi = {10.1016/j.ssresearch.2015.10.003}, pmid = {26857170}, issn = {1096-0317}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Carbon Footprint ; Child ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Ecology ; *Economic Development ; Environment ; *Family Characteristics ; Humans ; Life Style ; Politics ; Residence Characteristics ; *Social Change ; *Social Class ; Technology ; United States ; }, abstract = {Understanding the manifold human and physical dimensions of climate change has become an area of great interest to researchers in recent decades. Using a U.S. nationally-representative data set and drawing on the ecological modernization, political economy, and human ecology perspectives, this study examines the impacts of energy efficiency technologies, affluence, household demographics, and biophysical characteristics on residential CO2 emissions. Overall, the study provides mixed support for the ecological modernization perspective. While several findings are consistent with the theory's expectation that modern societies can harness technology to mitigate human impacts on the environment, others directly contradict it. Also, the theory's prediction of an inverted U-shaped relationship between affluence and environmental impacts is contradicted. The evidence is somewhat more supportive of the political economy and human ecology perspectives, with affluence, some indicators of technology, household demographics, and biophysical characteristics emerging as important drivers of residential CO2 emissions.}, }
@article {pmid26852164, year = {2016}, author = {Mouri, G and Nakano, K and Tsuyama, I and Tanaka, N}, title = {The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {149}, number = {}, pages = {288-296}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2016.01.024}, pmid = {26852164}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forecasting ; *Forests ; Japan ; Models, Theoretical ; *Water Cycle ; }, abstract = {Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the Catchment Simulator modelling frameworks based on the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO) model, which was expanded to estimate discharge by incorporating the effects of forest-type transition across the whole of Japan. The results indicated that, by the 2090s, annual runoff will increase above present-day values. Increases in annual variation in runoff by the 2090s was predicted to be around 14.1% when using the MRI-GCM data and 44.4% when using the HadGEM data. Analysis by long-term projection showed the largest increases in runoff in the 2090s were related to the type of forest, such as evergreen. Increased runoff can have negative effects on both society and the environment, including increased flooding events, worsened water quality, habitat destruction and changes to the forest moisture-retaining function. Prediction of the impacts of future climate change on water generation is crucial for effective environmental planning and management.}, }
@article {pmid26850984, year = {2016}, author = {Paz, S and Semenza, JC}, title = {El Niño and climate change--contributing factors in the dispersal of Zika virus in the Americas?.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {387}, number = {10020}, pages = {745}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00256-7}, pmid = {26850984}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Animals ; Humans ; *Pandemics ; *Travel ; Zika Virus Infection/*epidemiology/*transmission ; }, }
@article {pmid26848673, year = {2016}, author = {Gutierrez, KS and LePrevost, CE}, title = {Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {189}, pmid = {26848673}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {P30 ES025128/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30ES025128/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; *Rural Health ; *Social Justice ; Southeastern United States ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate justice is a local, national, and global movement to protect at-risk populations who are disproportionately affected by climate change. The social context for this review is the Southeastern region of the United States, which is particularly susceptible to climate change because of the geography of the area and the vulnerabilities of the inhabiting populations. Negative human health effects on variable and vulnerable populations within the Southeast region due to changing climate are concerning, as health threats are not expected to produce parallel effects among all individuals. Vulnerable communities, such as communities of color, indigenous people, the geographically isolated, and those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged and already experiencing poor environmental quality, are least able to respond and adapt to climate change. Focusing on vulnerable populations in the Southeastern United States, this review is a synthesis of the recent (2010 to 2015) literature-base on the health effects connected to climate change. This review also addresses local and regional mitigation and adaptation strategies for citizens and leaders to combat direct and indirect human health effects related to a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid26848052, year = {2016}, author = {Althor, G and Watson, JE and Fuller, RA}, title = {Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {20281}, pmid = {26848052}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Countries export much of the harm created by their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because the Earth's atmosphere intermixes globally. Yet, the extent to which this leads to inequity between GHG emitters and those impacted by the resulting climate change depends on the distribution of climate vulnerability. Here, we determine empirically the relationship between countries' GHG emissions and their vulnerability to negative effects of climate change. In line with the results of other studies, we find an enormous global inequality where 20 of the 36 highest emitting countries are among the least vulnerable to negative impacts of future climate change. Conversely, 11 of the 17 countries with low or moderate GHG emissions, are acutely vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. In 2010, only 28 (16%) countries had an equitable balance between emissions and vulnerability. Moreover, future emissions scenarios show that this inequality will significantly worsen by 2030. Many countries are manifestly free riders causing others to bear a climate change burden, which acts as a disincentive for them to mitigate their emissions. It is time that this persistent and worsening climate inequity is resolved, and for the largest emitting countries to act on their commitment of common but differentiated responsibilities.}, }
@article {pmid26847375, year = {2016}, author = {Bannayan, M and Paymard, P and Ashraf, B}, title = {Vulnerability of maize production under future climate change: possible adaptation strategies.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {96}, number = {13}, pages = {4465-4474}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.7659}, pmid = {26847375}, issn = {1097-0010}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological/radiation effects ; *Climate Change/economics ; Computer Simulation ; *Crop Production/economics/trends ; Crops, Agricultural/economics/growth &amp; development/*physiology/radiation effects ; Desert Climate ; Droughts/economics ; Flowering Tops/growth &amp; development/physiology/radiation effects ; Food Supply/economics ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Iran ; *Models, Biological ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development/physiology/radiation effects ; Seasons ; Seeds/growth &amp; development/*physiology/radiation effects ; Sunlight ; Zea mays/growth &amp; development/*physiology/radiation effects ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change can affect the productivity and geographic distribution of crops. Therefore, evaluation of adaptive management options is crucial in dealing with negative impacts of climate change. The objectives of this study were to simulate the impacts of climate change on maize production in the north-east of Iran. Moreover, vulnerability index which indicated that how much of the crop yield loss is related to the drought was computed for each location to identify where adaptation and mitigation strategies are effective. Different sowing dates were also applied as an adaptation approach to decrease the negative impacts of climate change in study area.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that the maize yield would decline during the 21st century from -2.6% to -82% at all study locations in comparison with the baseline. The result of vulnerability index also indicated that using the adaptation strategies could be effective in all of the study areas. Using different sowing dates as an adaptation approach showed that delaying the sowing date will be advantageous in order to obtain higher yield in all study locations in future.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study provided insight regarding the climate change impacts on maize production and the efficacy of adaptation strategies. &#xa9; 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.}, }
@article {pmid26842786, year = {2016}, author = {Ancillotto, L and Santini, L and Ranc, N and Maiorano, L and Russo, D}, title = {Extraordinary range expansion in a common bat: the potential roles of climate change and urbanisation.}, journal = {Die Naturwissenschaften}, volume = {103}, number = {3-4}, pages = {15}, pmid = {26842786}, issn = {1432-1904}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; Chiroptera/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Models, Biological ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Urbanisation and climate change are two global change processes that affect animal distributions, posing critical threats to biodiversity. Due to its versatile ecology and synurbic habits, Kuhl's pipistrelle (Pipistrellus kuhlii) offers a unique opportunity to explore the relative effects of climate change and urbanisation on species distributions. In a climate change scenario, this typically Mediterranean species is expected to expand its range in response to increasing temperatures. We collected 25,132 high-resolution occurrence records from P. kuhlii European range between 1980 and 2013 and modelled the species' distribution with a multi-temporal approach, using three bioclimatic variables and one proxy of urbanisation. Temperature in the coldest quarter of the year was the most important factor predicting the presence of P. kuhlii and showed an increasing trend in the study period; mean annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality were also relevant, but to a lower extent. Although urbanisation increased in recently colonised areas, it had little effect on the species' presence predictability. P. kuhlii expanded its geographical range by about 394 % in the last four decades, a process that can be interpreted as a response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26842343, year = {2016}, author = {Applebaum, KM and Graham, J and Gray, GM and LaPuma, P and McCormick, SA and Northcross, A and Perry, MJ}, title = {An Overview of Occupational Risks From Climate Change.}, journal = {Current environmental health reports}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {13-22}, pmid = {26842343}, issn = {2196-5412}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*etiology ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Environmental Pollutants/*adverse effects ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Occupational Exposure/*adverse effects ; *Occupational Health ; Ozone/adverse effects ; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Changes in atmosphere and temperature are affecting multiple environmental indicators from extreme heat events to global air quality. Workers will be uniquely affected by climate change, and the occupational impacts of major shifts in atmospheric and weather conditions need greater attention. Climate change-related exposures most likely to differentially affect workers in the USA and globally include heat, ozone, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, other chemicals, pathogenic microorganisms, vector-borne diseases, violence, and wildfires. Epidemiologic evidence documents a U-, J-, or V-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Whereas heat-related morbidity and mortality risks are most evident in agriculture, many other outdoor occupational sectors are also at risk, including construction, transportation, landscaping, firefighting, and other emergency response operations. The toxicity of chemicals change under hyperthermic conditions, particularly for pesticides and ozone. Combined with climate-related changes in chemical transport and distribution, these interactions represent unique health risks specifically to workers. Links between heat and interpersonal conflict including violence require attention because they pose threats to the safety of emergency medicine, peacekeeping and humanitarian relief, and public safety professionals. Recommendations for anticipating how US workers will be most susceptible to climate change include formal monitoring systems for agricultural workers; modeling scenarios focusing on occupational impacts of extreme climate events including floods, wildfires, and chemical spills; and national research agenda setting focusing on control and mitigation of occupational susceptibility to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26841292, year = {2016}, author = {Marquès, M and Mari, M and Audí-Miró, C and Sierra, J and Soler, A and Nadal, M and Domingo, JL}, title = {Photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils under a climate change base scenario.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {148}, number = {}, pages = {495-503}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2016.01.069}, pmid = {26841292}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Deuterium/analysis ; Photolysis ; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/analysis/*radiation effects/toxicity ; Soil/chemistry ; Soil Pollutants/analysis/*radiation effects/toxicity ; Toxicity Tests ; }, abstract = {The photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two typical Mediterranean soils, either coarse- or fine-textured, was here investigated. Soil samples, spiked with the 16 US EPA priority PAHs, were incubated in a climate chamber at stable conditions of temperature (20 °C) and light (9.6 W m(-2)) for 28 days, simulating a climate change base scenario. PAH concentrations in soils were analyzed throughout the experiment, and correlated with data obtained by means of Microtox(®) ecotoxicity test. Photodegradation was found to be dependent on exposure time, molecular weight of each hydrocarbon, and soil texture. Fine-textured soil was able to enhance sorption, being PAHs more photodegraded than in coarse-textured soil. According to the EC50 values reported by Microtox(®), a higher detoxification was observed in fine-textured soil, being correlated with the outcomes of the analytical study. Significant photodegradation rates were detected for a number of PAHs, namely phenanthrene, anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, and indeno(123-cd)pyrene. Benzo(a)pyrene, commonly used as an indicator for PAH pollution, was completely removed after 7 days of light exposure. In addition to the PAH chemical analysis and the ecotoxicity tests, a hydrogen isotope analysis of benzo(a)pyrene was also carried out. The degradation of this specific compound was associated to a high enrichment in (2)H, obtaining a maximum δ(2)H isotopic shift of +232‰. This strong isotopic effect observed in benzo(a)pyrene suggests that compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) may be a powerful tool to monitor in situ degradation of PAHs. Moreover, hydrogen isotopes of benzo(a)pyrene evidenced a degradation process of unknown origin occurring in the darkness.}, }
@article {pmid26840250, year = {2016}, author = {Sanders-DeMott, R and Smith, NG and Templer, PH and Dukes, JS}, title = {Towards an integrated understanding of terrestrial ecosystem feedbacks to climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {209}, number = {4}, pages = {1363-1365}, doi = {10.1111/nph.13877}, pmid = {26840250}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid26840043, year = {2017}, author = {Veprauskas, A and Cushing, JM}, title = {A juvenile-adult population model: climate change, cannibalism, reproductive synchrony, and strong Allee effects.}, journal = {Journal of biological dynamics}, volume = {11}, number = {sup1}, pages = {1-24}, doi = {10.1080/17513758.2015.1131853}, pmid = {26840043}, issn = {1751-3766}, mesh = {Animals ; *Cannibalism ; Charadriiformes/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; *Reproduction ; }, abstract = {We study a discrete time, structured population dynamic model that is motivated by recent field observations concerning certain life history strategies of colonial-nesting gulls, specifically the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens). The model focuses on mechanisms hypothesized to play key roles in a population's response to degraded environment resources, namely, increased cannibalism and adjustments in reproductive timing. We explore the dynamic consequences of these mechanics using a juvenile-adult structure model. Mathematically, the model is unusual in that it involves a high co-dimension bifurcation at [Formula: see text] which, in turn, leads to a dynamic dichotomy between equilibrium states and synchronized oscillatory states. We give diagnostic criteria that determine which dynamic is stable. We also explore strong Allee effects caused by positive feedback mechanisms in the model and the possible consequence that a cannibalistic population can survive when a non-cannibalistic population cannot.}, }
@article {pmid26839967, year = {2016}, author = {Hare, JA and Morrison, WE and Nelson, MW and Stachura, MM and Teeters, EJ and Griffis, RB and Alexander, MA and Scott, JD and Alade, L and Bell, RJ and Chute, AS and Curti, KL and Curtis, TH and Kircheis, D and Kocik, JF and Lucey, SM and McCandless, CT and Milke, LM and Richardson, DE and Robillard, E and Walsh, HJ and McManus, MC and Marancik, KE and Griswold, CA}, title = {A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {e0146756}, pmid = {26839967}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate Change ; *Ecological Parameter Monitoring ; Estuaries ; *Fishes ; *Invertebrates ; Mid-Atlantic Region ; New England ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.}, }
@article {pmid26838053, year = {2016}, author = {Jia, F and Wu, L and Gan, B and Cai, W}, title = {Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {20078}, pmid = {26838053}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.}, }
@article {pmid26837459, year = {2016}, author = {Azad, S and Rajeevan, M}, title = {Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {20145}, pmid = {26837459}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon rainfall are known to have an inverse relationship, which we have observed in the rainfall spectrum exhibiting a spectral dip in 3-5 y period band. It is well documented that El Nino events are known to be associated with deficit rainfall. Our analysis reveals that this spectral dip (3-5 y) is likely to shift to shorter periods (2.5-3 y) in future, suggesting a possible shift in the relationship between ENSO and monsoon rainfall. Spectral analysis of future climate projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) models are employed in order to corroborate our findings. Change in spectral dip speculates early occurrence of drought events in future due to multiple factors of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid26836405, year = {2016}, author = {Abid, M and Schilling, J and Scheffran, J and Zulfiqar, F}, title = {Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {547}, number = {}, pages = {447-460}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.11.125}, pmid = {26836405}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Pakistan ; Perception ; *Risk ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory services.}, }
@article {pmid26835253, year = {2015}, author = {Dantas-Torres, F}, title = {Climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases: The butterfly effect.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology. Parasites and wildlife}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {452-461}, pmid = {26835253}, issn = {2213-2244}, abstract = {We have killed wild animals for obtaining food and decimated forests for many reasons. Nowadays, we are burning fossil fuels as never before and even exploring petroleum in deep waters. The impact of these activities on our planet is now visible to the naked eye and the debate on climate change is warming up in scientific meetings and becoming a priority on the agenda of both scientists and policy decision makers. On the occasion of the Impact of Environmental Changes on Infectious Diseases (IECID) meeting, held in the 2015 in Sitges, Spain, I was invited to give a keynote talk on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. The aim of the present article is to logically extend my rationale presented on the occasion of the IECID meeting. This article is not intended to be an exhaustive review, but an essay on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. It may be anticipated that warmer winters and extended autumn and spring seasons will continue to drive the expansion of the distribution of some tick species (e.g., Ixodes ricinus) to northern latitudes and to higher altitudes. Nonetheless, further studies are advocated to improve our understanding of the complex interactions between landscape, climate, host communities (biodiversity), tick demography, pathogen diversity, human demography, human behaviour, economics, and politics, also considering all ecological processes (e.g., trophic cascades) and other possible interacting effects (e.g., mutual effects of increased greenhouse gas emissions and increased deforestation rates). The multitude of variables and interacting factors involved, and their complexity and dynamism, make tick-borne transmission systems beyond (current) human comprehension. That is, perhaps, the main reason for our inability to precisely predict new epidemics of vector-borne diseases in general.}, }
@article {pmid26827075, year = {2016}, author = {Elachola, H and Memish, ZA}, title = {Oil prices, climate change--health challenges in Saudi Arabia.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {387}, number = {10021}, pages = {827-829}, pmid = {26827075}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Economics ; Health Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Petroleum/*economics ; Saudi Arabia ; }, }
@article {pmid26824727, year = {2016}, author = {Ruiz-Navarro, A and Gillingham, PK and Britton, JR}, title = {Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {9}, pages = {3221-3232}, pmid = {26824727}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Cyprinidae ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges ('climate space'), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L∞) and growth rates (as rate at which L∞ is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the model species were Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Squalius cephalus, Gobio gobio and Abramis brama. Ensemble models predicted that the species' climate spaces would shift in all modelled projections, with the most drastic changes occurring under high emissions; all range centroids shifted in a north-westerly direction. Predicted climate space expanded for R. rutilus and A. brama, contracted for S. cephalus, and for L. leuciscus and G. gobio, expanded under low-emission scenarios but contracted under high emissions, suggesting the presence of some climate-distribution thresholds. For R. rutilus, A. brama, S. cephalus and G. gobio, shifts in their climate space were coupled with predicted shifts to significantly smaller maximum body sizes and/or faster growth rates, aligning strongly to aspects of temperature-body size theory. These predicted shifts in L∞ and K had considerable consequences for size-at-age per species, suggesting substantial alterations in population age structures and abundances. Thus, when predicting climate change outcomes for species, outputs that couple shifts in climate space with altered body sizes and growth rates provide considerable insights into the population and community consequences, especially for species that cannot easily track their thermal niches.}, }
@article {pmid26823161, year = {2016}, author = {Cabré, MF and Quénol, H and Nuñez, M}, title = {Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {60}, number = {9}, pages = {1325-1340}, pmid = {26823161}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Argentina ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Vitis ; }, abstract = {Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural regions. It has been concluded that regional climate change simulations are an adequate methodology, and indeed, the MM5 regional model is an appropriate tool to be applied in viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.}, }
@article {pmid26822392, year = {2016}, author = {, }, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2015.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {141-174}, doi = {10.1039/c6pp90004f}, pmid = {26822392}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Air/analysis ; Air Pollution/analysis ; Altitude ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Arctic Regions ; Autoimmune Diseases/etiology ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Eye Neoplasms/etiology ; Humans ; Hydrobiology ; *Ozone Depletion ; Skin Neoplasms/etiology ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels that regularly informs the Parties (countries) to the Montreal Protocol on the effects of ozone depletion and the consequences of climate change interactions with respect to human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The Panels provide a detailed assessment report every four years. The most recent 2014 Quadrennial Assessment by the EEAP was published as a special issue of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). The next Quadrennial Assessment will be published in 2018/2019. In the interim, the EEAP generally produces an annual update or progress report of the relevant scientific findings. The present progress report for 2015 assesses some of the highlights and new insights with regard to the interactive nature of the effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26821754, year = {2016}, author = {Saltré, F and Rodríguez-Rey, M and Brook, BW and Johnson, CN and Turney, CS and Alroy, J and Cooper, A and Beeton, N and Bird, MI and Fordham, DA and Gillespie, R and Herrando-Pérez, S and Jacobs, Z and Miller, GH and Nogués-Bravo, D and Prideaux, GJ and Roberts, RG and Bradshaw, CJ}, title = {Climate change not to blame for late Quaternary megafauna extinctions in Australia.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {10511}, pmid = {26821754}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; Humans ; Paleontology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Late Quaternary megafauna extinctions impoverished mammalian diversity worldwide. The causes of these extinctions in Australia are most controversial but essential to resolve, because this continent-wide event presaged similar losses that occurred thousands of years later on other continents. Here we apply a rigorous metadata analysis and new ensemble-hindcasting approach to 659 Australian megafauna fossil ages. When coupled with analysis of several high-resolution climate records, we show that megafaunal extinctions were broadly synchronous among genera and independent of climate aridity and variability in Australia over the last 120,000 years. Our results reject climate change as the primary driver of megafauna extinctions in the world's most controversial context, and instead estimate that the megafauna disappeared Australia-wide ∼13,500 years after human arrival, with shorter periods of coexistence in some regions. This is the first comprehensive approach to incorporate uncertainty in fossil ages, extinction timing and climatology, to quantify mechanisms of prehistorical extinctions.}, }
@article {pmid26816183, year = {2016}, author = {Mendes, CS and Coelho, AB and Féres, JG and Souza, EC and Cunha, DA}, title = {[The impact of climate change on leishmaniasis in Brazil].}, journal = {Ciencia &amp; saude coletiva}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {263-272}, doi = {10.1590/1413-81232015211.03992015}, pmid = {26816183}, issn = {1678-4561}, mesh = {Brazil ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Leishmaniasis/*epidemiology ; Patient Admission/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26814377, year = {2015}, author = {Dhillon, VS and Kaur, D}, title = {Green Hospital and Climate Change: Their Interrelationship and the Way Forward.}, journal = {Journal of clinical and diagnostic research : JCDR}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {LE01-5}, pmid = {26814377}, issn = {2249-782X}, abstract = {Climate change is a reality, and the modern healthcare sector not just contributes towards this grave phenomenon but is itself being affected by it. The present review was thus conducted to understand the meaning of 'Green Hospital', to identify the many ways in which health sector is contributing towards climate change, to explore possibilities for countering this grave trend and last of all to look for institutions that are pioneering change. Data for the review was extracted from multiple online sources using the Google search engine. It was found that hospitals, being resource intensive establishments, consume vast amounts of electricity, water, food and construction materials to provide high quality care. It was also found that certain healthcare institutions, by employing simple, smart and sustainable measures can greatly reduce their environmental footprint. But constructing Green Hospitals can be a challenge considering the local conditions and growing customer expectations.}, }
@article {pmid26813867, year = {2016}, author = {De Saedeleer, B}, title = {Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {19881}, pmid = {26813867}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.}, }
@article {pmid26811756, year = {2015}, author = {Moyer-Horner, L and Mathewson, PD and Jones, GM and Kearney, MR and Porter, WP}, title = {Modeling behavioral thermoregulation in a climate change sentinel.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {24}, pages = {5810-5822}, pmid = {26811756}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {When possible, many species will shift in elevation or latitude in response to rising temperatures. However, before such shifts occur, individuals will first tolerate environmental change and then modify their behavior to maintain heat balance. Behavioral thermoregulation allows animals a range of climatic tolerances and makes predicting geographic responses under future warming scenarios challenging. Because behavioral modification may reduce an individual's fecundity by, for example, limiting foraging time and thus caloric intake, we must consider the range of behavioral options available for thermoregulation to accurately predict climate change impacts on individual species. To date, few studies have identified mechanistic links between an organism's daily activities and the need to thermoregulate. We used a biophysical model, Niche Mapper, to mechanistically model microclimate conditions and thermoregulatory behavior for a temperature-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). Niche Mapper accurately simulated microclimate conditions, as well as empirical metabolic chamber data for a range of fur properties, animal sizes, and environmental parameters. Niche Mapper predicted pikas would be behaviorally constrained because of the need to thermoregulate during the hottest times of the day. We also showed that pikas at low elevations could receive energetic benefits by being smaller in size and maintaining summer pelage during longer stretches of the active season under a future warming scenario. We observed pika behavior for 288 h in Glacier National Park, Montana, and thermally characterized their rocky, montane environment. We found that pikas were most active when temperatures were cooler, and at sites characterized by high elevations and north-facing slopes. Pikas became significantly less active across a suite of behaviors in the field when temperatures surpassed 20°C, which supported a metabolic threshold predicted by Niche Mapper. In general, mechanistic predictions and empirical observations were congruent. This research is unique in providing both an empirical and mechanistic description of the effects of temperature on a mammalian sentinel of climate change, the American pika. Our results suggest that previously underinvestigated characteristics, specifically fur properties and body size, may play critical roles in pika populations' response to climate change. We also demonstrate the potential importance of considering behavioral thermoregulation and microclimate variability when predicting animal responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26811461, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {Correction to Supporting Information for Rosenzweig et al., Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {5}, pages = {E665}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1600146113}, pmid = {26811461}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid26810148, year = {2016}, author = {Defriez, EJ and Sheppard, LW and Reid, PC and Reuman, DC}, title = {Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {2069-2080}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13229}, pmid = {26810148}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Copepoda/physiology ; Decapoda/physiology ; Diatoms/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; North Sea ; Plankton/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959-1980 and 1989-2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.}, }
@article {pmid26809502, year = {2016}, author = {Rizzetto, S and Belyazid, S and Gégout, JC and Nicolas, M and Alard, D and Corcket, E and Gaudio, N and Sverdrup, H and Probst, A}, title = {Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {213}, number = {}, pages = {1016-1027}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2015.12.048}, pmid = {26809502}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Abies/drug effects/growth &amp; development ; Air Pollutants/*pharmacology ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; *Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forests ; France ; Models, Biological ; Nitrogen/*pharmacology ; Picea/drug effects/growth &amp; development ; Quercus/drug effects/growth &amp; development ; *Soil ; Trees/*drug effects/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {A dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term.}, }
@article {pmid26808087, year = {2016}, author = {Siña, M and Wood, RC and Saldarriaga, E and Lawler, J and Zunt, J and Garcia, P and Cárcamo, C}, title = {Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {e0147201}, pmid = {26808087}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {D43 TW009375/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; 5D43TW009375-02/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Budgets ; *Cities ; City Planning ; *Climate Change ; *Decision Making ; Developing Countries ; Economic Development ; Environmental Health/economics ; Focus Groups ; Government Programs ; *Health Planning ; *Health Priorities ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Humans ; Peru ; Public Opinion ; Public Policy ; *Social Planning ; Urban Health ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.}, }
@article {pmid26805926, year = {2016}, author = {Ming, T and de Richter, R and Shen, S and Caillol, S}, title = {Fighting global warming by greenhouse gas removal: destroying atmospheric nitrous oxide thanks to synergies between two breakthrough technologies.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {23}, number = {7}, pages = {6119-6138}, pmid = {26805926}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Even if humans stop discharging CO2 into the atmosphere, the average global temperature will still increase during this century. A lot of research has been devoted to prevent and reduce the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the atmosphere, in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is one of the technologies that might help to limit emissions. In complement, direct CO2 removal from the atmosphere has been proposed after the emissions have occurred. But, the removal of all the excess anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 will not be enough, due to the fact that CO2 outgases from the ocean as its solubility is dependent of its atmospheric partial pressure. Bringing back the Earth average surface temperature to pre-industrial levels would require the removal of all previously emitted CO2. Thus, the atmospheric removal of other greenhouse gases is necessary. This article proposes a combination of disrupting techniques to transform nitrous oxide (N2O), the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) in terms of current radiative forcing, which is harmful for the ozone layer and possesses quite high global warming potential. Although several scientific publications cite "greenhouse gas removal," to our knowledge, it is the first time innovative solutions are proposed to effectively remove N2O or other GHGs from the atmosphere other than CO2.}, }
@article {pmid26804198, year = {2016}, author = {Ranney, MA and Clark, D}, title = {Climate Change Conceptual Change: Scientific Information Can Transform Attitudes.}, journal = {Topics in cognitive science}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {49-75}, doi = {10.1111/tops.12187}, pmid = {26804198}, issn = {1756-8765}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Cognition/physiology ; Comprehension ; Culture ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Science/*education ; United States ; }, abstract = {Of this article's seven experiments, the first five demonstrate that virtually no Americans know the basic global warming mechanism. Fortunately, Experiments 2-5 found that 2-45 min of physical-chemical climate instruction durably increased such understandings. This mechanistic learning, or merely receiving seven highly germane statistical facts (Experiment 6), also increased climate-change acceptance-across the liberal-conservative spectrum. However, Experiment 7's misleading statistics decreased such acceptance (and dramatically, knowledge-confidence). These readily available attitudinal and conceptual changes through scientific information disconfirm what we term "stasis theory"--which some researchers and many laypeople varyingly maintain. Stasis theory subsumes the claim that informing people (particularly Americans) about climate science may be largely futile or even counterproductive--a view that appears historically naïve, suffers from range restrictions (e.g., near-zero mechanistic knowledge), and/or misinterprets some polarization and (noncausal) correlational data. Our studies evidenced no polarizations. Finally, we introduce HowGlobalWarmingWorks.org--a website designed to directly enhance public "climate-change cognition."}, }
@article {pmid26804136, year = {2016}, author = {Meng, Q and Chen, X and Lobell, DB and Cui, Z and Zhang, Y and Yang, H and Zhang, F}, title = {Growing sensitivity of maize to water scarcity under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {19605}, pmid = {26804136}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Food ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Temperature ; Water ; *Water Supply ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate change can reduce crop yields and thereby threaten food security. The current measures used to adapt to climate change involve avoiding crops yield decrease, however, the limitations of such measures due to water and other resources scarcity have not been well understood. Here, we quantify how the sensitivity of maize to water availability has increased because of the shift toward longer-maturing varieties during last three decades in the Chinese Maize Belt (CMB). We report that modern, longer-maturing varieties have extended the growing period by an average of 8 days and have significantly offset the negative impacts of climate change on yield. However, the sensitivity of maize production to water has increased: maize yield across the CMB was 5% lower with rainfed than with irrigated maize in the 1980s and was 10% lower (and even >20% lower in some areas) in the 2000s because of both warming and the increased requirement for water by the longer-maturing varieties. Of the maize area in China, 40% now fails to receive the precipitation required to attain the full yield potential. Opportunities for water saving in maize systems exist, but water scarcity in China remains a serious problem.}, }
@article {pmid26802348, year = {2016}, author = {Li, Z and Huang, G and Wang, X and Han, J and Fan, Y}, title = {Impacts of future climate change on river discharge based on hydrological inference: A case study of the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {548-549}, number = {}, pages = {198-210}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.01.002}, pmid = {26802348}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Over the recent years, climate change impacts have been increasingly studied at the watershed scale. However, the impact assessment is strongly dependent upon the performance of the climatic and hydrological models. This study developed a two-step method to assess climate change impacts on water resources based on the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and a Hydrological Inference Model (HIM). PRECIS runs provided future temperature and precipitation projections for the watershed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The HIM based on stepwise cluster analysis is developed to imitate the complex nonlinear relationships between climate input variables and targeted hydrological variables. Its robust mathematical structure and flexibility in predictor selection makes it a desirable tool for fully utilizing various climate modeling outputs. Although PRECIS and HIM cannot fully cover the uncertainties in hydro-climate modeling, they could provide efficient decision support for investigating the impacts of climate change on water resources. The proposed method is applied to the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada. The model performance is demonstrated with comparison to observation data from the watershed during the period 1972-2006. Future river discharge intervals that accommodate uncertainties in hydro-climatic modeling are presented and future river discharge variations are analyzed. The results indicate that even though the total annual precipitation would not change significantly in the future, the inter-annual distribution is very likely to be altered. The water availability is expected to increase in Winter while it is very likely to decrease in Summer over the Grand River Watershed, and adaptation strategies would be necessary.}, }
@article {pmid26800396, year = {2016}, author = {Shao, W and Goidel, K}, title = {Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {36}, number = {11}, pages = {2136-2157}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12571}, pmid = {26800396}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents' perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate-related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15- and 19-year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15- and 19-year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, "seeing is not believing." Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions-rather than objectively measured weather conditions-influence climate-related attitudes.}, }
@article {pmid26799810, year = {2016}, author = {Mellor, JE and Levy, K and Zimmerman, J and Elliott, M and Bartram, J and Carlton, E and Clasen, T and Dillingham, R and Eisenberg, J and Guerrant, R and Lantagne, D and Mihelcic, J and Nelson, K}, title = {Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {548-549}, number = {}, pages = {82-90}, pmid = {26799810}, issn = {1879-1026}, support = {K01 AI103544/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R21 TW009032/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Diarrhea/*epidemiology ; Environmental Health/*methods ; Humans ; Sanitation ; *Systems Analysis ; }, abstract = {Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid26799808, year = {2016}, author = {Tayyebi, A and Darrel Jenerette, G}, title = {Increases in the climate change adaption effectiveness and availability of vegetation across a coastal to desert climate gradient in metropolitan Los Angeles, CA, USA.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {548-549}, number = {}, pages = {60-71}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.01.049}, pmid = {26799808}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Desert Climate ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Hot Temperature ; Los Angeles ; Plant Physiological Phenomena/*physiology ; Plants ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Urbanization has increased heat in the urban environment, with many consequences for human health and well-being. Managing climate change in part through increasing vegetation is desired by many cities to mitigate current and future heat related issues. However, little information is available on what influences the current effectiveness and availability of vegetation for local cooling. In this study, we identified the variation in the interacting relationships among vegetation (normalized difference vegetation index), socioeconomic status (neighborhood income), elevation and land surface temperature (LST) to identify how vegetation based surface cooling services change throughout the pronounced coastal to desert climate gradient of the Los Angeles, CA metropolitan region, a megacity of >18 million residents. A key challenge for understanding variation in vegetation as a climate change adaptation tool spanning neighborhood to megacity scales is developing new "big data" analytical tools. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantify the interacting relationships among socio-economic status data obtained from government census data, elevation and new LST and vegetation data obtained from an airborne imaging campaign conducted in 2013 for the urban and suburban areas across a series of fifteen climate zones. Vegetation systematically increased in cooling effectiveness from 6.06 to 31.77 degrees with increasing distance from the coast. Vegetation and neighborhood income were positively correlated throughout all climate zones with a peak in the relationship occurring near 25km from the coast. Because of the interaction between these two relationships, we also found that higher income neighborhoods were cooler and that this effect peaked at about 30km from the coast. These results show the availability and effectiveness of vegetation on the local climate varies tremendously throughout the Los Angeles, CA metropolitan area. Further, using the more inland climate zones as future analogs for more coastal zones, suggests that in the warmer climate conditions projected for the region the effectiveness of vegetation for regional cooling may increase thus acting as a localized negative feedback mechanism.}, }
@article {pmid26799459, year = {2016}, author = {Zimova, M and Mills, LS and Nowak, JJ}, title = {High fitness costs of climate change-induced camouflage mismatch.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {299-307}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12568}, pmid = {26799459}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; Hares/*physiology ; *Longevity ; Molting ; Phenotype ; Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; Seasons ; *Selection, Genetic ; Snow ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change has created myriad stressors that threaten to cause local extinctions if wild populations fail to adapt to novel conditions. We studied individual and population-level fitness costs of a climate change-induced stressor: camouflage mismatch in seasonally colour molting species confronting decreasing snow cover duration. Based on field measurements of radiocollared snowshoe hares, we found strong selection on coat colour molt phenology, such that animals mismatched with the colour of their background experienced weekly survival decreases up to 7%. In the absence of adaptive response, we show that these mortality costs would result in strong population-level declines by the end of the century. However, natural selection acting on wide individual variation in molt phenology might enable evolutionary adaptation to camouflage mismatch. We conclude that evolutionary rescue will be critical for hares and other colour molting species to keep up with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26799170, year = {2016}, author = {Torcello, L}, title = {The Ethics of Belief, Cognition, and Climate Change Pseudoskepticism: Implications for Public Discourse.}, journal = {Topics in cognitive science}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {19-48}, doi = {10.1111/tops.12179}, pmid = {26799170}, issn = {1756-8765}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cognition/*physiology ; Communication ; *Culture ; Denial, Psychological ; *Ethics ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Models, Psychological ; Morals ; Philosophy ; Research ; }, abstract = {The relationship between knowledge, belief, and ethics is an inaugural theme in philosophy; more recently, under the title "ethics of belief" philosophers have worked to develop the appropriate methodology for studying the nexus of epistemology, ethics, and psychology. The title "ethics of belief" comes from a 19th-century paper written by British philosopher and mathematician W.K. Clifford. Clifford argues that we are morally responsible for our beliefs because (a) each belief that we form creates the cognitive circumstances for related beliefs to follow, and (b) we inevitably influence each other through those beliefs. This study argues that recent cognitive research supports Cliffordian insights regarding patterns of belief formation and social influence. From the confirmation offered by such research, it follows that informational accuracy holds serious ethical significance in public discourse. Although scientific and epistemological matters are not always thought to be linked to normative morality, this study builds on Clifford's initial insights to show their linkage is fundamental to inquiry itself. In turn, Clifford's ethical and epistemic outline can inform a framework grounded in "public reason" under which seemingly opposed science communication strategies (e.g., "information deficit" and "cultural cognition" models) are philosophically united. With public discourse on climate change as the key example, empirically informed and grounded strategies for science communication in the public sphere are considered.}, }
@article {pmid26796918, year = {2016}, author = {Buotte, PC and Peterson, DL and McKelvey, KS and Hicke, JA}, title = {Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {169}, number = {}, pages = {313-318}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.12.017}, pmid = {26796918}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forests ; Geography ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid26796862, year = {2016}, author = {Chadee, DD and Martinez, R}, title = {Aedes aegypti (L.) in Latin American and Caribbean region: With growing evidence for vector adaptation to climate change?.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {156}, number = {}, pages = {137-143}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2015.12.022}, pmid = {26796862}, issn = {1873-6254}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Aedes/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Animals ; Caribbean Region/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Dengue/*transmission ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Latin America/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Within Latin America and the Caribbean region the impact of climate change has been associated with the effects of rainfall and temperature on seasonal outbreaks of dengue but few studies have been conducted on the impacts of climate on the behaviour and ecology of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.This study was conducted to examine the adaptive behaviours currently being employed by A. aegypti mosquitoes exposed to the force of climate change in LAC countries. The literature on the association between climate and dengue incidence is small and sometimes speculative. Few laboratory and field studies have identified research gaps. Laboratory and field experiments were designed and conducted to better understand the container preferences, climate-associated-adaptive behaviour, ecology and the effects of different temperatures and light regimens on the life history of A. aegypti mosquitoes. A. aegypti adaptive behaviours and changes in container preferences demonstrate how complex dengue transmission dynamics is, in different ecosystems. The use of underground drains and septic tanks represents a major behaviour change identified and compounds an already difficult task to control A. aegypti populations. A business as usual approach will exacerbate the problem and lead to more frequent outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in LAC countries unless both area-wide and targeted vector control approaches are adopted. The current evidence and the results from proposed transdisciplinary research on dengue within different ecosystems will help guide the development of new vector control strategies and foster a better understanding of climate change impacts on vector-borne disease transmission.}, }
@article {pmid26796699, year = {2016}, author = {Nabout, JC and Magalhães, MR and de Amorim Gomes, MA and da Cunha, HF}, title = {The Impact of Global Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution and Sustainable Harvest of Hancornia speciosa Gomes (Apocynaceae) in Brazil.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {57}, number = {4}, pages = {814-821}, pmid = {26796699}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Apocynaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Biodiversity ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The global Climate change may affect biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems by changing the appropriate locations for the development and establishment of the species. The Hancornia speciosa, popularly called Mangaba, is a plant species that has potential commercial value and contributes to rural economic activities in Brazil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution, productivity, and value of production of H. speciosa in Brazil. We used MaxEnt to estimate the potential geographic distribution of the species in current and future (2050) climate scenarios. We obtained the productivity and value of production for 74 municipalities in Brazil. Moreover, to explain the variation the productivity and value of production, we constructed 15 models based on four variables: two ecological (ecological niche model and the presence of Unity of conservation) and two socio-economic (gross domestic product and human developed index). The models were selected using Akaike Information Criteria. Our results suggest that municipalities currently harvesting H. speciosa will have lower harvest rates in the future (mainly in northeastern Brazil). The best model to explain the productivity was ecological niche model; thus, municipalities with higher productivity are inserted in regions with higher environmental suitability (indicated by niche model). Thus, in the future, the municipalities harvesting H. speciosa will produce less because there will be less suitable habitat for H. speciosa, which in turn will affect the H. speciosa harvest and the local economy.}, }
@article {pmid26796233, year = {2016}, author = {Fountoulakis, KN and Savopoulos, C and Zannis, P and Apostolopoulou, M and Fountoukidis, I and Kakaletsis, N and Kanellos, I and Dimellis, D and Hyphantis, T and Tsikerdekis, A and Pompili, M and Hatzitolios, AI}, title = {Climate change but not unemployment explains the changing suicidality in Thessaloniki Greece (2000-2012).}, journal = {Journal of affective disorders}, volume = {193}, number = {}, pages = {331-338}, doi = {10.1016/j.jad.2016.01.008}, pmid = {26796233}, issn = {1573-2517}, mesh = {Climate ; Female ; Greece/epidemiology ; Humans ; Linear Models ; Male ; *Seasons ; Sex Factors ; Suicide/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Suicide, Attempted/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Temperature ; Unemployment/*psychology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Recently there was a debate concerning the etiology behind attempts and completed suicides. The aim of the current study was to search for possible correlations between the rates of attempted and completed suicide and climate variables and regional unemployment per year in the county of Thessaloniki, Macedonia, northern Greece, for the years 2000-12.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHODS: The regional rates of suicide and attempted suicide as well as regional unemployment were available from previous publications of the authors. The climate variables were calculated from the daily E-OBS gridded dataset which is based on observational data<br><br>RESULTS: Only the male suicide rates correlate significantly with high mean annual temperature but not with unemployment. The multiple linear regression analysis results suggest that temperature is the only variable that determines male suicides and explains 51% of their variance. Unemployment fails to contribute significantly to the model. There seems to be a seasonal distribution for attempts with mean rates being higher for the period from May to October and the rates clearly correlate with temperature. The highest mean rates were observed during May and August and the lowest during December and February. Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that temperature also determines the female attempts rate although the explained variable is significant but very low (3-5%)<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate variables and specifically high temperature correlate both with suicide and attempted suicide rates but with a different way between males and females. The climate effect was stronger than the effect of unemployment.}, }
@article {pmid26795852, year = {2016}, author = {}, title = {Veterinary pedal power pushes for climate change agreement.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {178}, number = {4}, pages = {82}, doi = {10.1136/vr.i337}, pmid = {26795852}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {*Bicycling ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Lobbying ; United Kingdom ; *Veterinarians ; }, }
@article {pmid26792158, year = {2015}, author = {Sweijd, NA and Wright, CY and Westwood, A and Rouault, M and Landman, WA and MacKenzie, ML and Nuttall, JJ and Mahomed, H and Cousins, T and Winter, K and Berhoozi, F and Kalule, B and Kruger, P and Govender, T and Minakawa, N}, title = {Climate change is catchy--but when will it really hurt?.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {105}, number = {12}, pages = {1018-1023}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2015.v105i12.10332}, pmid = {26792158}, issn = {0256-9574}, abstract = {Concern and general awareness about the impacts of climate change in all sectors of the social-ecological-economic system is growing as a result of improved climate science products and information, as well as increased media coverage of the apparent manifestations of the phenomenon in our society. However, scales of climate variability and change, in space and time, are often confused and so attribution of impacts on various sectors, including the health sector, can be misunderstood and misrepresented. In this review, we assess the mechanistic links between climate and infectious diseases in particular, and consider how this relationship varies, and may vary according to different time scales, especially for aetiologically climate-linked diseases. While climate varies in the medium (inter-annual) time frame, this variability itself may be oscillating and/or trending on cyclical and long-term (climate change) scales because of regional and global scale climate phenomena such as the El-Nino southern oscillation coupled with global-warming drivers of climate change. As several studies have shown, quantifying and modelling these linkages and associations at appropriate time and space scales is both necessary and increasingly feasible with improved climate science products and better epidemiological data. The application of this approach is considered for South Africa, and the need for a more concerted effort in this regard is supported.}, }
@article {pmid26792151, year = {2015}, author = {Wright, CY and Norval, M and Albers, PN}, title = {Climate change, public health and COP21--a South African perspective.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {105}, number = {12}, pages = {997-998}, doi = {10.7196/SAMJ.2015.v105i12.10232}, pmid = {26792151}, issn = {0256-9574}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Public Health ; South Africa ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid26791614, year = {2016}, author = {Boersma, M and Grüner, N and Tasso Signorelli, N and Montoro González, PE and Peck, MA and Wiltshire, KH}, title = {Projecting effects of climate change on marine systems: is the mean all that matters?.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {283}, number = {1823}, pages = {}, pmid = {26791614}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; *Oceans and Seas ; Periodicity ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Studies dealing with the effects of changing global temperatures on living organisms typically concentrate on annual mean temperatures. This, however, might not be the best approach in temperate systems with large seasonality where the mean annual temperature is actually not experienced very frequently. The mean annual temperature across a 50-year, daily time series of measurements at Helgoland Roads (54.2° N, 7.9° E) is 10.1°C while seasonal data are characterized by a clear, bimodal distribution; temperatures are around 6°C in winter and 15°C in summer with rapid transitions in spring and autumn. Across those 50 years, the temperature at which growth is maximal for each single bloom event for 115 phytoplankton species (more than 6000 estimates of optimal temperature) mirrors the bimodal distribution of the in situ temperatures. Moreover, independent laboratory data on temperature optima for growth of North Sea organisms yielded similar results: a deviance from the normal distribution, with a gap close to the mean annual temperature, and more optima either above or below this temperature. We conclude that organisms, particularly those that are short-lived, are either adapted to the prevailing winter or summer temperatures in temperate areas and that few species exist with thermal optima within the periods characterized by rapid spring warming and autumn cooling.}, }
@article {pmid26790253, year = {2015}, author = {Kiefer, B}, title = {[Climate change and medicine: a common horizon].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {11}, number = {498}, pages = {2356}, pmid = {26790253}, issn = {1660-9379}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; France ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Politics ; Switzerland ; }, }
@article {pmid26785550, year = {2015}, author = {Ji, XJ and Cheng, L and Fang, WS}, title = {[Estimating the impacts of future climate change on water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat in Henan Province, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {9}, pages = {2689-2699}, pmid = {26785550}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Forecasting ; Soil ; Triticum/*physiology ; *Water ; }, abstract = {Based on the analysis of water requirement and water deficit during development stage of winter wheat in recent 30 years (1981-2010) in Henan Province, the effective precipitation was calculated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation method, the water requirement (ETC) was estimated by using FAO Penman-Monteith equation and crop coefficient method recommended by FAO, combined with the climate change scenario A2 (concentration on the economic envelopment) and B2 (concentration on the sustainable development) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) , the spatial and temporal characteristics of impacts of future climate change on effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat were estimated. The climatic impact factors of ETc and WD also were analyzed. The results showed that under A2 and B2 scenarios, there would be a significant increase in anomaly percentage of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period compared with the average value from 1981 to 2010. Effective precipitation increased the most in 2030s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 33.5% and 39.2%, respectively. Water requirement increased the most in 2010s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 22.5% and 17.5%, respectively, and showed a significant downward trend with time. Water deficit increased the most under A2 scenario in 2010s by 23.6% and under B2 scenario in 2020s by 13.0%. Partial correlation analysis indicated that solar radiation was the main cause for the variation of ETc and WD in future under A2 and B2 scenarios. The spatial distributions of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period were spatially heterogeneous because of the difference in geographical and climatic environments. A possible tendency of water resource deficiency may exist in Henan Province in the future.}, }
@article {pmid26785460, year = {2015}, author = {O'Brien, K}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. Political agency: The key to tackling climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {350}, number = {6265}, pages = {1170-1171}, doi = {10.1126/science.aad0267}, pmid = {26785460}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid26784753, year = {2016}, author = {Koh, H}, title = {Communicating the Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {315}, number = {3}, pages = {239-240}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2015.18271}, pmid = {26784753}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid26784721, year = {2016}, author = {Moss, D}, title = {OUR CRYING PLANET: AN APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL.}, journal = {The Psychoanalytic quarterly}, volume = {85}, number = {1}, pages = {189-197}, doi = {10.1002/psaq.12064}, pmid = {26784721}, issn = {2167-4086}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Denial, Psychological ; Humans ; *Planets ; *Psychoanalysis ; }, }
@article {pmid26779964, year = {2016}, author = {Macdonald, P}, title = {Heart Transplantation From Donation After Circulatory Death: The Impact of Global Warming.}, journal = {American journal of transplantation : official journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {737-738}, doi = {10.1111/ajt.13573}, pmid = {26779964}, issn = {1600-6143}, mesh = {Brain Death ; *Death ; *Global Warming ; Heart Transplantation ; Humans ; Tissue Donors ; Tissue and Organ Procurement ; }, }
@article {pmid26775853, year = {2016}, author = {Negev, M and Kovats, RS}, title = {Climate change adaptation in the reorganized UK public health system: a view from local government.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {134}, number = {}, pages = {102-104}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2015.12.001}, pmid = {26775853}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Local Government ; *Public Health Administration ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid26775327, year = {2015}, author = {Rafferty, AM and Watts, N and Stott, R}, title = {"We have a responsibility to act on climate change".}, journal = {Nursing times}, volume = {111}, number = {48}, pages = {7}, pmid = {26775327}, issn = {0954-7762}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; International Cooperation ; Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid26771054, year = {2016}, author = {Sanderson, H and Hilden, M and Russel, D and Dessai, S}, title = {Database support for adaptation to climate change: An assessment of web-based portals across scales.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {627-631}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.1755}, pmid = {26771054}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Databases, Factual ; European Union ; *Information Dissemination ; International Cooperation ; Internet ; United States ; }, abstract = {The widely recognized increase in greenhouse gas emissions is necessitating adaptation to a changing climate, and policies are being developed and implemented worldwide, across sectors, and between government scales globally. The aim of this article is to reflect on one of the major challenges: facilitating and sharing information on the next adaptation practices. Web portals (i.e., web sites) for disseminating information are important tools in meeting this challenge, and therefore, we assessed the characteristics of select major portals across multiple scales. We found that there is a rather limited number of case studies available in the portals-between 900 and 1000 in total-with 95 that include cost information and 195 that include the participation of stakeholders globally. Portals are rarely cited by researchers, suggesting a suboptimal connection between the practical, policy-related, and scientific development of adaptation. The government portals often lack links on search results between US and European Union (EU) web sites, for example. With significant investments and policy development emerging in both the United States and the European Union, there is great potential to share information via portals. Moreover, there is the possibility of better connecting the practical adaptation experience from bottom-up projects to the science of adaptation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:627-631. © 2016 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid26771002, year = {2015}, author = {Ramachandran, A and Praveen, D and Jaganathan, R and Palanivelu, K}, title = {Projected and Observed Aridity and Climate Change in the East Coast of South India under RCP 4.5.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {2015}, number = {}, pages = {169761}, pmid = {26771002}, issn = {1537-744X}, abstract = {In the purview of global warming, the present study attempts to project changes in climate and quantify the changes in aridity of two coastal districts in south India under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. Projected climate change output generated by RegCM 4.4 model, pertaining to 14 grid points located within the study area, was analyzed and processed for this purpose. The meteorological parameters temperature and precipitations were used to create De Martonne Aridity Index, to assess the spatial distribution of aridity. The original index values ranged from 13.7 to 16.4 mm/°C, characterizing this area as a semidry climate. The outcome from the changed scenario analysis under RCP 4.5 showed that, during the end of the 21st century, the aridity may be increased more as the index values tend to reduce. The increasing trend in the drying phenomenon may be attributed to the rising of mean annual temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid26769701, year = {2016}, author = {Yu, K and Chen, X and Pan, G and Zhang, X and Chen, C}, title = {Dynamics of soil available phosphorus and its impact factors under simulated climate change in typical farmland of Taihu Lake region, China.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {188}, number = {2}, pages = {88}, pmid = {26769701}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Lakes ; Phosphorus/*analysis ; Seasons ; Soil/*chemistry ; Temperature ; Triticum ; }, abstract = {Global climate change affects the availability of soil nutrients, thereby influencing crop productivity. This research was conducted to investigate the effects of elevated CO2, elevated temperature, and the interaction of the elevated CO2 and temperature on the soil available phosphorus (P) of a paddy-wheat rotation in the Taihu Lake region, China. Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was cultivated during the study period from 2011 to 2014 at two CO2 levels (350 μL•L(-1) ambient and 500 μL•L(-1) elevated by 150 μL•L(-1)) and two temperatures (ambient and 2 °C above the ambient). Soil available P content increased at the first season and decreased at the last season during the three wheat growing seasons. Soil available P content showed seasonal variation, whereas dynamic changes were not significant within each growing season. Soil available P content had no obvious trends under different treatments. But for the elevated temperature, CO2, and their combination treatments, soil available P content decreased in a long time period. During the period of wheat ripening stage, significant positive correlations were found between soil available P content and saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and organic matter, but significant negative correlations with soil clay content and pH value; the correlation coefficients were 0.9400 (p < 0.01), 0.9942 (p < 0.01), -0.9383 (p < 0.01), and -0.6403 (p < 0.05), respectively. Therefore, Ks, organic matter, soil clay, and pH were the major impact factors on soil available P content. These results can provide a basis for predicting the trend of soil available P variation, as well as guidance for managing the soil nutrients and best fertilization practices in the future climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid26768142, year = {2016}, author = {Szabó, B and Vincze, E and Czúcz, B}, title = {Flowering phenological changes in relation to climate change in Hungary.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {60}, number = {9}, pages = {1347-1356}, pmid = {26768142}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Flowers/*growth &amp; development ; Hungary ; Magnoliopsida/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The importance of long-term plant phenological time series is growing in monitoring of climate change impacts worldwide. To detect trends and assess possible influences of climate in Hungary, we studied flowering phenological records for six species (Convallaria majalis, Taraxacum officinale, Syringa vulgaris, Sambucus nigra, Robinia pseudoacacia, Tilia cordata) based on phenological observations from the Hungarian Meteorological Service recorded between 1952 and 2000. Altogether, four from the six examined plant species showed significant advancement in flowering onset with an average rate of 1.9-4.4 days per decade. We found that it was the mean temperature of the 2-3 months immediately preceding the mean flowering date, which most prominently influenced its timing. In addition, several species were affected by the late winter (January-March) values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. We also detected sporadic long-term effects for all species, where climatic variables from earlier months exerted influence with varying sign and little recognizable pattern: the temperature/NAO of the previous autumn (August-December) seems to influence Convallaria, and the temperature/precipitation of the previous spring (February-April) has some effect on Tilia flowering.}, }
@article {pmid26766409, year = {2016}, author = {Roncal-Jimenez, CA and García-Trabanino, R and Wesseling, C and Johnson, RJ}, title = {Mesoamerican Nephropathy or Global Warming Nephropathy?.}, journal = {Blood purification}, volume = {41}, number = {1-3}, pages = {135-138}, doi = {10.1159/000441265}, pmid = {26766409}, issn = {1421-9735}, support = {I01 BX002586/BX/BLRD VA/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Agricultural Workers' Diseases/blood/*diagnosis/epidemiology/pathology ; Aldehyde Reductase/metabolism ; Central America/epidemiology ; Creatinine/blood ; Dehydration/blood/*diagnosis/epidemiology/pathology ; Disease Progression ; Enzyme Activation ; Fructokinases/metabolism ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Kidney Failure, Chronic/blood/*diagnosis/epidemiology/pathology ; Kidney Tubules, Proximal/metabolism/pathology ; Male ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/blood/*diagnosis/epidemiology/pathology ; Uric Acid/blood ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: An epidemic of chronic kidney disease (CKD) of unknown cause has emerged along the Pacific Coast of Central America. The disease primarily affects men working manually outdoors, and the major group affected is sugarcane workers. The disease presents with an asymptomatic rise in serum creatinine that progresses to end-stage renal disease over several years. Renal biopsies show chronic tubulointerstitial disease. While the cause remains unknown, recent studies suggest that it is driven by recurrent dehydration in the hot climate. Potential mechanisms include the development of hyperosmolarity with the activation of the aldose reductase-fructokinase pathway in the proximal tubule leading to local injury and inflammation, and the possibility that renal injury may be the consequence of repeated uricosuria and urate crystal formation as a consequence of both increased generation and urinary concentration, similar to a chronic tumor lysis syndrome. The epidemic is postulated to be increasing due to the effects of global warming.<br><br>SUMMARY: An epidemic of CKD has led to the death of more than 20,000 lives in Central America. The cause is unknown, but appears to be due to recurrent dehydration. Potential mechanisms for injury are renal damage as a consequence of recurrent hyperosmolarity and/or injury to the tubules from repeated episodes of uricosuria.<br><br>KEY MESSAGES: The epidemic of CKD in Mesoamerica may be due to chronic recurrent dehydration as a consequence of global warming and working conditions. This entity may be one of the first major diseases attributed to climate change and the greenhouse effect.}, }
@article {pmid26762022, year = {2015}, author = {Yang, Y and Cai, L and Zhang, R}, title = {[Effects of global climate change on the ecological characteristics and biogeochemical significance of marine viruses--A review].}, journal = {Wei sheng wu xue bao = Acta microbiologica Sinica}, volume = {55}, number = {9}, pages = {1097-1104}, pmid = {26762022}, issn = {0001-6209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Seawater/*chemistry/*virology ; Viruses/classification/genetics/*growth &amp; development/isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {As the most abundance biological agents in the oceans, viruses can influence the physiological and ecological characteristics of host cells through viral infections and lysis, and affect the nutrient and energy cycles of the marine food chain. Thus, they are the major players in the ocean biogeochemical processes. The problems caused by global climate changes, such as sea-surface warming, acidification, nutrients availability, and deoxygenation, have the potential effects on marine viruses and subsequently their ecological and biogeochemical function in the ocean. Here, we reviewed the potential impacts of global climate change on the ecological characteristics (e. g. abundance, distribution, life cycle and the host-virus interactions) and biogeochemical significance (e. g. carbon cycling) of marine viruses. We proposed that marine viruses should not be ignored in the global climate change study.}, }
@article {pmid26761791, year = {2016}, author = {Tellería, JL and Fernández-López, J and Fandos, G}, title = {Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {e0146958}, pmid = {26761791}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Mediterranean Region ; Morocco ; Multivariate Analysis ; Passeriformes/*physiology ; Rain ; Seasons ; Spain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050-2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean.}, }
@article {pmid26761439, year = {2016}, author = {Weatherdon, LV and Ota, Y and Jones, MC and Close, DA and Cheung, WW}, title = {Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations' Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {e0145285}, pmid = {26761439}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Models, Theoretical ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade(-1) by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations' territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived from local fishers' knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid26761202, year = {2016}, author = {Wobus, C and Prucha, R and Albert, D and Woll, C and Loinaz, M and Jones, R and Travers, C}, title = {Correction: Hydrologic Alterations from Climate Change Inform Assessment of Ecological Risk to Pacific Salmon in Bristol Bay, Alaska.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {e0147242}, pmid = {26761202}, issn = {1932-6203}, }
@article {pmid26760272, year = {2016}, author = {Reinmann, AB and Hutyra, LR and Trlica, A and Olofsson, P}, title = {Assessing the global warming potential of human settlement expansion in a mesic temperate landscape from 2005 to 2050.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {545-546}, number = {}, pages = {512-524}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.033}, pmid = {26760272}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fossil Fuels ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Massachusetts ; Models, Theoretical ; *Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Expansion of human settlements is an important driver of global environmental change that causes land use and land cover change (LULCC) and alters the biophysical nature of the landscape and climate. We use the state of Massachusetts, United States (U.S.) to present a novel approach to quantifying the effects of projected expansion of human settlements on the biophysical nature of the landscape. We integrate nationally available datasets with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios model to model albedo and C storage and uptake by forests and vegetation within human settlements. Our results indicate a 4.4 to 14% decline in forest cover and a 35 to 40% increase in developed land between 2005 and 2050, with large spatial variability. LULCC is projected to reduce rates of forest C sequestration, but our results suggest that vegetation within human settlements has the potential to offset a substantial proportion of the decline in the forest C sink and may comprise up to 35% of the terrestrial C sink by 2050. Changes in albedo and terrestrial C fluxes are expected to result in a global warming potential (GWP) of +0.13 Mg CO2-C-equivalence ha(-1)year(-1) under the baseline trajectory, which is equivalent to 17% of the projected increase in fossil fuel emissions. Changes in terrestrial C fluxes are generally the most important driver of the increase in GWP, but albedo change becomes an increasingly important component where housing densities are higher. Expansion of human settlements is the new face of LULCC and our results indicate that when quantifying the biophysical response it is essential to consider C uptake by vegetation within human settlements and the spatial variability in the influence of C fluxes and albedo on changes in GWP.}, }
@article {pmid26758748, year = {2016}, author = {, }, title = {Climate change and non-communicable diseases.}, journal = {The Lancet. Oncology}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1016/S1470-2045(15)00568-9}, pmid = {26758748}, issn = {1474-5488}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution/adverse effects/*prevention &amp; control ; Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid26750491, year = {2016}, author = {Shiogama, H and Stone, D and Emori, S and Takahashi, K and Mori, S and Maeda, A and Ishizaki, Y and Allen, MR}, title = {Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {18903}, pmid = {26750491}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26749179, year = {2016}, author = {Cook, J and Lewandowsky, S}, title = {Rational Irrationality: Modeling Climate Change Belief Polarization Using Bayesian Networks.}, journal = {Topics in cognitive science}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {160-179}, doi = {10.1111/tops.12186}, pmid = {26749179}, issn = {1756-8765}, mesh = {Australia ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Consensus ; Culture ; Humans ; *Models, Psychological ; Perception ; *Rationalization ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Belief polarization is said to occur when two people respond to the same evidence by updating their beliefs in opposite directions. This response is considered to be "irrational" because it involves contrary updating, a form of belief updating that appears to violate normatively optimal responding, as for example dictated by Bayes' theorem. In light of much evidence that people are capable of normatively optimal behavior, belief polarization presents a puzzling exception. We show that Bayesian networks, or Bayes nets, can simulate rational belief updating. When fit to experimental data, Bayes nets can help identify the factors that contribute to polarization. We present a study into belief updating concerning the reality of climate change in response to information about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The study used representative samples of Australian and U.S.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: Among Australians, consensus information partially neutralized the influence of worldview, with free-market supporters showing a greater increase in acceptance of human-caused global warming relative to free-market opponents. In contrast, while consensus information overall had a positive effect on perceived consensus among U.S. participants, there was a reduction in perceived consensus and acceptance of human-caused global warming for strong supporters of unregulated free markets. Fitting a Bayes net model to the data indicated that under a Bayesian framework, free-market support is a significant driver of beliefs about climate change and trust in climate scientists. Further, active distrust of climate scientists among a small number of U.S. conservatives drives contrary updating in response to consensus information among this particular group.}, }
@article {pmid26748862, year = {2016}, author = {Chapman, DS and Makra, L and Albertini, R and Bonini, M and Páldy, A and Rodinkova, V and Šikoparija, B and Weryszko-Chmielewska, E and Bullock, JM}, title = {Modelling the introduction and spread of non-native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {9}, pages = {3067-3079}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13220}, pmid = {26748862}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Ambrosia ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Introduced Species ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non-native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species arrive. Here, we developed a simulation model to understand and describe plant invasion at a continental scale, integrating repeated transport through trade pathways, unintentional release events and the population dynamics and local anthropogenic dispersal that drive subsequent spread. We used the model to simulate the invasion of Europe by common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a globally invasive plant that causes serious harm as an aeroallergen and crop weed. Simulations starting in 1950 accurately reproduced ragweed's current distribution, including the presence of records in climatically unsuitable areas as a result of repeated introduction. Furthermore, the model outputs were strongly correlated with spatial and temporal patterns of ragweed pollen concentrations, which are fully independent of the calibration data. The model suggests that recent trends for warmer summers and increased volumes of international trade have accelerated the ragweed invasion. For the latter, long distance dispersal because of trade within the invaded continent is highlighted as a key invasion process, in addition to import from the native range. Biosecurity simulations, whereby transport through trade pathways is halted, showed that effective control is only achieved by early action targeting all relevant pathways. We conclude that invasion models would benefit from integrating introduction processes (transport and release) with spread dynamics, to better represent propagule pressure from native sources as well as mechanisms for long-distance dispersal within invaded continents. Ultimately, such integration may facilitate better prediction of spatial and temporal variation in invasion risk and provide useful guidance for management strategies to reduce the impacts of invasion.}, }
@article {pmid26748543, year = {2016}, author = {Prudent, N and Houghton, A and Luber, G}, title = {Assessing climate change and health vulnerability at the local level: Travis County, Texas.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {40}, number = {4}, pages = {740-752}, doi = {10.1111/disa.12177}, pmid = {26748543}, issn = {1467-7717}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality ; Censuses ; *Climate Change/mortality ; Diabetes Mellitus/mortality ; Female ; *Floods/mortality ; Geographic Information Systems ; *Health Status ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Hypertension/mortality ; Male ; Principal Component Analysis ; Texas/epidemiology ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {We created a measure to help comprehend population vulnerability to potential flooding and excessive heat events using health, built environment and social factors. Through principal component analysis (PCA), we created non-weighted sum index scores of literature-reviewed social and built environment characteristics. We created baseline poor health measures using 1999-2005 age-adjusted cardiovascular and combined diabetes and hypertension mortality rates to correspond with social-built environment indices. We mapped US Census block groups by linked age-adjusted mortality and a PCA-created social-built environment index. The goal was to measure flooding and excessive heat event vulnerability as proxies for population vulnerability to climate change for Travis County, Texas. This assessment identified communities where baseline poor health, social marginalisation and built environmental impediments intersected. Such assessments may assist targeted interventions and improve emergency preparedness in identified vulnerable communities, while fostering resilience through the focus of climate change adaptation policies at the local level.}, }
@article {pmid26748007, year = {2016}, author = {Fleischer, E and Khashimov, I and Hölzel, N and Klemm, O}, title = {Carbon exchange fluxes over peatlands in Western Siberia: Possible feedback between land-use change and climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {545-546}, number = {}, pages = {424-433}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.073}, pmid = {26748007}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The growing demand for agricultural products has been leading to an expansion and intensification of agriculture around the world. More and more unused land is currently reclaimed in the regions of the former Soviet Union. Driven by climate change, the Western Siberian grain belt might, in a long-term, even expand into the drained peatland areas to the North. It is crucial to study the consequences of this land-use change with respect to the carbon cycling as this is still a major knowledge gap. We present for the first time data on the atmosphere-ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and methane of an arable field and a neighboring unused grassland on peat soil in Western Siberia. Eddy covariance measurements were performed over one vegetation period. No directed methane fluxes were found due to an effective drainage of the study sites. The carbon dioxide fluxes appeared to be of high relevance for the global carbon and greenhouse gas cycles. They showed very site-specific patterns resulting from the development of vegetation: the persistent plants of the grassland were able to start photosynthesizing soon after snow melt, while the absence of vegetation on the managed field lead to a phase of emissions until the oat plants started to grow in June. The uptake peak of the oat field is much later than that of the grassland, but larger due to a rapid plant growth. Budgeting the whole measurement period, the grassland served as a carbon sink, whereas the oat field was identified to be a carbon source. The conversion from non-used grasslands on peat soil to cultivated fields in Western Siberia is therefore considered to have a positive feedback on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26747843, year = {2016}, author = {Brown, JL and Weber, JJ and Alvarado-Serrano, DF and Hickerson, MJ and Franks, SJ and Carnaval, AC}, title = {Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {103}, number = {1}, pages = {153-163}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1500117}, pmid = {26747843}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Genetic Variation ; Models, Genetic ; Northwestern United States ; Penstemon/genetics/*physiology ; *Plant Dispersal ; Southwestern United States ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa.<br><br>METHODS: We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning.}, }
@article {pmid26744480, year = {2016}, author = {Schneider, HE and Mazer, SJ}, title = {Geographic variation in climate as a proxy for climate change: Forecasting evolutionary trajectories from species differentiation and genetic correlations.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {103}, number = {1}, pages = {140-152}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1500108}, pmid = {26744480}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; California ; Clarkia/*genetics ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Phenotype ; Pollination ; Self-Fertilization ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climate change models for California predict a warmer, drier future, potentially resulting in shorter growing seasons. If phenotypic differences between closely related species currently distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient represent adaptations to their abiotic environment, then as conditions become warmer and drier, populations presently adapted to cooler and wetter conditions may evolve to become more similar to those adapted to warmer and drier conditions. Two sister species, Clarkia unguiculata and C. exilis, are distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, providing an opportunity to predict how this process may occur.<br><br>METHODS: In a greenhouse experiment using wild-collected seeds from 11 populations in the southern Sierra Nevada, we examined relationships among elevation, climatic conditions, and population means for each trait, then evaluated bivariate relationships among maternal family means, using raw values and controlling for population and seed mass effects on phenotype.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Clarkia exilis occupied warmer, drier conditions, typically at lower elevations, than C. unguiculata did and flowered earlier and faster, producing smaller flowers with lower herkogamy. In C. unguiculata, petal area, herkogamy, and the rate of flower production were positively correlated with days to first flower.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: If selection favors earlier flowering, smaller petals, or faster flower production in C. unguiculata, then the genetic correlations among these traits should reinforce their joint evolution. Moreover, the correlations between these traits and herkogamy may promote the evolution of self-fertilization as an indirect response to selection, a previously unrecognized potential outcome of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26742651, year = {2016}, author = {Henson, SA and Beaulieu, C and Lampitt, R}, title = {Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {1561-1571}, pmid = {26742651}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Chlorophyll ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrates ; *Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen ; Seawater/chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (<~30 years) to detect trends than other areas. In addition, we quantify the 'footprint' of existing and planned time series stations, that is the area over which a station is representative of a broader region. Footprints are generally largest for pH and sea surface temperature, but nevertheless the existing network of observatories only represents 9-15% of the global ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid26742245, year = {2015}, author = {Nau, JY}, title = {[Is the topic of climate change confronted with scepticism?].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {11}, number = {495}, pages = {2200-2201}, pmid = {26742245}, issn = {1660-9379}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid26738708, year = {2015}, author = {Watts, G}, title = {Scientists welcome new global climate change pact.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {386}, number = {10012}, pages = {2461-2462}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01289-1}, pmid = {26738708}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid26738430, year = {2016}, author = {Robbins, A}, title = {How to understand the results of the climate change summit: Conference of Parties21 (COP21) Paris 2015.}, journal = {Journal of public health policy}, volume = {37}, number = {2}, pages = {129-132}, pmid = {26738430}, issn = {1745-655X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid26732228, year = {2016}, author = {Walsh, RE and Aprígio Assis, AP and Patton, JL and Marroig, G and Dawson, TE and Lacey, EA}, title = {Morphological and dietary responses of chipmunks to a century of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {9}, pages = {3233-3252}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13216}, pmid = {26732228}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Diet ; Environment ; Feeding Behavior ; *Sciuridae ; }, abstract = {Predicting how individual taxa will respond to climatic change is challenging, in part because the impacts of environmental conditions can vary markedly, even among closely related species. Studies of chipmunks (Tamias spp.) in Yosemite National Park provide an important opportunity to explore the reasons for this variation in response. While the alpine chipmunk (T. alpinus) has undergone a significant elevational range contraction over the past century, the congeneric and partially sympatric lodgepole chipmunk (T. speciosus) has not experienced an elevational range shift during this period. As a first step toward identifying the factors underlying this difference in response, we examined evidence for dietary changes and changes in cranial morphology in these species over the past century. Stable isotope analyses of fur samples from modern and historical museum specimens of these species collected at the same localities indicated that signatures of dietary change were more pronounced in T. alpinus, although diet breadth did not differ consistently between the study species. Morphometric analyses of crania from these specimens revealed significant changes in cranial shape for T. alpinus, with less pronounced changes in shape for T. speciosus; evidence of selection on skull morphology was detected for T. alpinus, but not for T. speciosus. These results are consistent with growing evidence that T. alpinus is generally more responsive to environmental change than T. speciosus, but emphasize the complex and often geographically variable nature of such responses. Accordingly, future studies that make use of the taxonomically and spatially integrative approach employed here may prove particularly informative regarding relationships between environmental conditions, range changes, and patterns of phenotypic variation.}, }
@article {pmid26730966, year = {2016}, author = {Wu, J and Liu, Q and Wang, L and Chu, GQ and Liu, JQ}, title = {Vegetation and Climate Change during the Last Deglaciation in the Great Khingan Mountain, Northeastern China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {e0146261}, pmid = {26730966}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Geologic Sediments ; *Ice Cover ; *Plants ; Pollen ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Great Khingan Mountain range, Northeast China, is located on the northern limit of modern East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and thus highly sensitive to the extension of the EASM from glacial to interglacial modes. Here, we present a high-resolution pollen record covering the last glacial maximum and the early Holocene from a closed crater Lake Moon to reconstruct vegetation history during the glacial-interglacial transition and thus register the evolution of the EASM during the last deglaciation. The vegetation history has gone through distinct changes from subalpine meadow in the last glacial maximum to dry steppe dominated by Artemisia from 20.3 to 17.4 ka BP, subalpine meadow dominated by Cyperaceae and Artemisia between 17.4 and 14.4 ka BP, and forest steppe dominated by Betula and Artemisia after 14.4 ka BP. The pollen-based temperature index demonstrates a gradual warming trend started at around 20.3 ka BP with interruptions of several brief events. Two cold conditions occurred around at 17.2-16.6 ka BP and 12.8-11.8 ka BP, temporally correlating to the Henrich 1 and the Younger Dryas events respectively, 1and abrupt warming events occurred around at 14.4 ka BP and 11.8 ka BP, probably relevant to the beginning of the Bølling-Allerød stages and the Holocene. The pollen-based moisture proxy shows distinct drought condition during the last glacial maximum (20.3-18.0 ka BP) and the Younger Dryas. The climate history based on pollen record of Lake Moon suggests that the regional temperature variability was coherent with the classical climate in the North Atlantic, implying the dominance of the high latitude processes on the EASM evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to early Holocene. The local humidity variability was influenced by the EASM limitedly before the Bølling-Allerød warming, which is mainly controlled by the summer rainfall due to the EASM front covering the Northeast China after that.}, }
@article {pmid26730732, year = {2016}, author = {Jackson, MM and Gergel, SE and Martin, K}, title = {Correction: Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {e0146838}, pmid = {26730732}, issn = {1932-6203}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0142110.].}, }
@article {pmid26729867, year = {2016}, author = {García-Robledo, C and Kuprewicz, EK and Staines, CL and Erwin, TL and Kress, WJ}, title = {Limited tolerance by insects to high temperatures across tropical elevational gradients and the implications of global warming for extinction.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {3}, pages = {680-685}, pmid = {26729867}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; *Altitude ; Animals ; Costa Rica ; Electron Transport Complex IV/genetics ; *Extinction, Biological ; Geography ; *Global Warming ; Haplotypes ; Herbivory ; *Hot Temperature ; Humidity ; Insecta/*physiology ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; Species Specificity ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The critical thermal maximum (CTmax), the temperature at which motor control is lost in animals, has the potential to determine if species will tolerate global warming. For insects, tolerance to high temperatures decreases with latitude, suggesting that similar patterns may exist along elevational gradients as well. This study explored how CTmax varies among species and populations of a group of diverse tropical insect herbivores, the rolled-leaf beetles, across both broad and narrow elevational gradients. Data from 6,948 field observations and 8,700 museum specimens were used to map the elevational distributions of rolled-leaf beetles on two mountains in Costa Rica. CTmax was determined for 1,252 individual beetles representing all populations across the gradients. Initial morphological identifications suggested a total of 26 species with populations at different elevations displaying contrasting upper thermal limits. However, compared with morphological identifications, DNA barcodes (cytochrome oxidase I) revealed significant cryptic species diversity. DNA barcodes identified 42 species and haplotypes across 11 species complexes. These 42 species displayed much narrower elevational distributions and values of CTmax than the 26 morphologically defined species. In general, species found at middle elevations and on mountaintops are less tolerant to high temperatures than species restricted to lowland habitats. Species with broad elevational distributions display high CTmax throughout their ranges. We found no significant phylogenetic signal in CTmax, geography, or elevational range. The narrow variance in CTmax values for most rolled-leaf beetles, especially high-elevation species, suggests that the risk of extinction of insects may be substantial under some projected rates of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid26725404, year = {2016}, author = {McCain, C and Szewczyk, T and Bracy Knight, K}, title = {Population variability complicates the accurate detection of climate change responses.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {2081-2093}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13211}, pmid = {26725404}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecology/*methods ; Models, Theoretical ; Plants ; *Population Density ; *Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {The rush to assess species' responses to anthropogenic climate change (CC) has underestimated the importance of interannual population variability (PV). Researchers assume sampling rigor alone will lead to an accurate detection of response regardless of the underlying population fluctuations of the species under consideration. Using population simulations across a realistic, empirically based gradient in PV, we show that moderate to high PV can lead to opposite and biased conclusions about CC responses. Between pre- and post-CC sampling bouts of modeled populations as in resurvey studies, there is: (i) A 50% probability of erroneously detecting the opposite trend in population abundance change and nearly zero probability of detecting no change. (ii) Across multiple years of sampling, it is nearly impossible to accurately detect any directional shift in population sizes with even moderate PV. (iii) There is up to 50% probability of detecting a population extirpation when the species is present, but in very low natural abundances. (iv) Under scenarios of moderate to high PV across a species' range or at the range edges, there is a bias toward erroneous detection of range shifts or contractions. Essentially, the frequency and magnitude of population peaks and troughs greatly impact the accuracy of our CC response measurements. Species with moderate to high PV (many small vertebrates, invertebrates, and annual plants) may be inaccurate 'canaries in the coal mine' for CC without pertinent demographic analyses and additional repeat sampling. Variation in PV may explain some idiosyncrasies in CC responses detected so far and urgently needs more careful consideration in design and analysis of CC responses.}, }
@article {pmid26725308, year = {2016}, author = {Yao, J and He, X and He, H and Chen, W and Dai, L and Lewis, BJ and Yu, L}, title = {The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {18490}, pmid = {26725308}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forestry ; *Forests ; Pinus/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26725258, year = {2016}, author = {Máliš, F and Kopecký, M and Petřík, P and Vladovič, J and Merganič, J and Vida, T}, title = {Life stage, not climate change, explains observed tree range shifts.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {1904-1914}, pmid = {26725258}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {278065/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Plant Dispersal ; Slovakia ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; Trees/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change is expected to shift tree species distribution and therefore affect forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. To assess and project tree distributional shifts, researchers may compare the distribution of juvenile and adult trees under the assumption that differences between tree life stages reflect distributional shifts triggered by climate change. However, the distribution of tree life stages could differ within the lifespan of trees, therefore, we hypothesize that currently observed distributional differences could represent shifts over ontogeny as opposed to climatically driven changes. Here, we test this hypothesis with data from 1435 plots resurveyed after more than three decades across the Western Carpathians. We compared seedling, sapling and adult distribution of 12 tree species along elevation, temperature and precipitation gradients. We analyzed (i) temporal shifts between the surveys and (ii) distributional differences between tree life stages within both surveys. Despite climate warming, tree species distribution of any life stage did not shift directionally upward along elevation between the surveys. Temporal elevational shifts were species specific and an order of magnitude lower than differences among tree life stages within the surveys. Our results show that the observed range shifts among tree life stages are more consistent with ontogenetic differences in the species' environmental requirements than with responses to recent climate change. The distribution of seedlings substantially differed from saplings and adults, while the distribution of saplings did not differ from adults, indicating a critical transition between seedling and sapling tree life stages. Future research has to take ontogenetic differences among life stages into account as we found that distributional differences recently observed worldwide may not reflect climate change but rather the different environmental requirements of tree life stages.}, }
@article {pmid26725252, year = {2016}, author = {Monks, A and Monks, JM and Tanentzap, AJ}, title = {Resource limitation underlying multiple masting models makes mast seeding sensitive to future climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {210}, number = {2}, pages = {419-430}, doi = {10.1111/nph.13817}, pmid = {26725252}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Flowers/physiology ; Genetic Linkage ; *Models, Biological ; Probability ; Reproducibility of Results ; Seeds/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Mechanistic models can help resolve controversy over the responses of mast seeding plants to future environmental change. We evaluate drivers of mast seeding by: developing and validating a new mechanistic resource-based model of mast seeding using four 40-yr Chionochloa (snow tussock) datasets; and comparing the performance of competing empirically-based statistical models, that aim to approximate the mechanisms underlying mast seeding, in explaining simulated and observed data. Our mechanistic model explained 90-99% of the variation in Chionochloa flowering, with higher rates of stored resource mobilisation and lower probability of climatic induction of flowering occurring at lower fertility sites. Inter-annual variation in floral induction and the degree to which seeding is resource-limited explained shifts in the relative performance of different empirical models fitted to data simulated from the mechanistic model. Empirical models explicitly capturing the interaction between the floral induction cue and internal resource state underlying the resource-limited induction mechanism had > 8.7× the statistical support of alternatives when fitted to Chionochloa datasets. We find support for resource-limited floral induction with multiple empirical models consistent with this same mechanism. As both resource acquisition and flowering cues are climate sensitive, we expect climate change to impact upon patterns of mast seeding.}, }
@article {pmid26721565, year = {2016}, author = {Sommer, A}, title = {Burning Fossil Fuels: Impact of Climate Change on Health.}, journal = {International journal of health services : planning, administration, evaluation}, volume = {46}, number = {1}, pages = {48-52}, doi = {10.1177/0020731415625253}, pmid = {26721565}, issn = {0020-7314}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Fossil Fuels ; *Health ; Humans ; United States ; }, abstract = {A recent, sophisticated granular analysis of climate change in the United States related to burning fossil fuels indicates a high likelihood of dramatic increases in temperature, wet-bulb temperature, and precipitation, which will dramatically impact the health and well-being of many Americans, particularly the young, the elderly, and the poor and marginalized. Other areas of the world, where they lack the resources to remediate these weather impacts, will be even more greatly affected. Too little attention is being paid to the impending health impact of accumulating greenhouse gases.}, }
@article {pmid26721473, year = {2016}, author = {Fisichelli, NA and Schuurman, GW and Hoffman, CH}, title = {Is 'Resilience' Maladaptive? Towards an Accurate Lexicon for Climate Change Adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {57}, number = {4}, pages = {753-758}, pmid = {26721473}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Terminology as Topic ; }, abstract = {Climate change adaptation is a rapidly evolving field in conservation biology and includes a range of strategies from resisting to actively directing change on the landscape. The term 'climate change resilience,' frequently used to characterize adaptation strategies, deserves closer scrutiny because it is ambiguous, often misunderstood, and difficult to apply consistently across disciplines and spatial and temporal scales to support conservation efforts. Current definitions of resilience encompass all aspects of adaptation from resisting and absorbing change to reorganizing and transforming in response to climate change. However, many stakeholders are unfamiliar with this spectrum of definitions and assume the more common meaning of returning to a previous state after a disturbance. Climate change, however, is unrelenting and intensifying, characterized by both directional shifts in baseline conditions and increasing variability in extreme events. This ongoing change means that scientific understanding and management responses must develop concurrently, iteratively, and collaboratively, in a science-management partnership. Divergent concepts of climate change resilience impede cross-jurisdictional adaptation efforts and complicate use of adaptive management frameworks. Climate change adaptation practitioners require clear terminology to articulate management strategies and the inherent tradeoffs involved in adaptation. Language that distinguishes among strategies that seek to resist change, accommodate change, and direct change (i.e., persistence, autonomous change, and directed change) is prerequisite to clear communication about climate change adaptation goals and management intentions in conservation areas.}, }
@article {pmid26720626, year = {2016}, author = {Schuldt, B and Knutzen, F and Delzon, S and Jansen, S and Müller-Haubold, H and Burlett, R and Clough, Y and Leuschner, C}, title = {How adaptable is the hydraulic system of European beech in the face of climate change-related precipitation reduction?.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {210}, number = {2}, pages = {443-458}, doi = {10.1111/nph.13798}, pmid = {26720626}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Fagus/anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Linear Models ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Plant Stems/growth &amp; development ; Pressure ; Principal Component Analysis ; *Rain ; Wood/analysis/physiology ; Xylem/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate warming will increase the drought exposure of many forests world-wide. It is not well understood how trees adapt their hydraulic architecture to a long-term decrease in water availability. We examined 23 traits characterizing the hydraulic architecture and growth rate of branches and the dependent foliage of mature European beech (Fagus sylvatica) trees along a precipitation gradient (855-594 mm yr(-1)) on uniform soil. A main goal was to identify traits that are associated with xylem efficiency, safety and growth. Our data demonstrate for the first time a linear increase in embolism resistance with climatic aridity (by 10%) across populations within a species. Simultaneously, vessel diameter declined by 7% and pit membrane thickness (Tm) increased by 15%. Although specific conductivity did not change, leaf-specific conductivity declined by 40% with decreasing precipitation. Of eight plant traits commonly associated with embolism resistance, only vessel density in combination with pathway redundancy and Tm were related. We did not confirm the widely assumed trade-off between xylem safety and efficiency but obtained evidence in support of a positive relationship between hydraulic efficiency and growth. We conclude that the branch hydraulic system of beech has a distinct adaptive potential to respond to a precipitation reduction as a result of the environmental control of embolism resistance.}, }
@article {pmid26719864, year = {2015}, author = {}, title = {Climate change action building.}, journal = {Nursing New Zealand (Wellington, N.Z. : 1995)}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {6}, pmid = {26719864}, issn = {1173-2032}, mesh = {Budgets ; *Climate Change ; New Zealand ; Societies, Nursing/*organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid26719511, year = {2016}, author = {Honey, L}, title = {Food production and climate change: finding the right balance.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {178}, number = {1}, pages = {9-10}, doi = {10.1136/vr.h6724}, pmid = {26719511}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {Animal Welfare ; Animals ; Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Societies, Medical ; United Kingdom ; Veterinary Medicine ; }, }
@article {pmid26711984, year = {2016}, author = {Levine, NM and Zhang, K and Longo, M and Baccini, A and Phillips, OL and Lewis, SL and Alvarez-Dávila, E and Segalin de Andrade, AC and Brienen, RJ and Erwin, TL and Feldpausch, TR and Monteagudo Mendoza, AL and Nuñez Vargas, P and Prieto, A and Silva-Espejo, JE and Malhi, Y and Moorcroft, PR}, title = {Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {3}, pages = {793-797}, pmid = {26711984}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Biomass ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Dehydration ; *Ecosystem ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Seasons ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.}, }
@article {pmid26711878, year = {2015}, author = {Rushton, S and Kett, M}, title = {Climate change and health: rising to the challenge?.}, journal = {Medicine, conflict, and survival}, volume = {31}, number = {3-4}, pages = {141-143}, doi = {10.1080/13623699.2015.1127617}, pmid = {26711878}, issn = {1362-3699}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid26710636, year = {2015}, author = {Liu, SJ and Zhou, GS and Fang, SB and Zhang, JH}, title = {[Effects of future climate change on climatic suitability of rubber plantation in China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {7}, pages = {2083-2090}, pmid = {26710636}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Global Warming ; Hevea/*physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Rubber ; Taiwan ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming may seriously affect the climatic suitability distribution of rubber plantation in China. Five main climate factors affecting rubber planting were mean temperature of the coldest month, mean extremely minimum temperature, the number of monthly, mean temperature ≥18 °C, annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation. Climatic suitability areas of rubber plantation in 1981-2010, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 were analyzed by the maximum entropy model based on the five main climate factors and the climate data of 1981-2010 and RCP4.5 scenario data. The results showed that under the background of the future climate change, the climatic suitability area of rubber plantation would have a trend of expansion to the north in 2041-2060, 2061-2080. The climatic suitability areas of rubber plantation in 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 increased more obviously than in 1981-2010. The suitable area and optimum area would increase, while the less suitable area would decrease. The climatic suitability might change in some areas, such as the total suitable area would decrease in Yunnan Province, and the suitability grade in both Jinghong and Mengna would change from optimum area to suitable area. However, the optimum area of rubber plantation would increase significantly in Hainan Island and Leizhou Peninsula of Guangdong Province, and a new less suitable area of rubber planting would appear in Taiwan Island due to the climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26705309, year = {2016}, author = {Araos, M and Austin, SE and Berrang-Ford, L and Ford, JD}, title = {Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Large Cities: A Global Baseline.}, journal = {International journal of health services : planning, administration, evaluation}, volume = {46}, number = {1}, pages = {53-78}, doi = {10.1177/0020731415621458}, pmid = {26705309}, issn = {0020-7314}, support = {//Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canada ; }, mesh = {Capacity Building/organization &amp; administration ; *Cities ; City Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; *Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Public Health Administration ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change will have significant impacts on human health, and urban populations are expected to be highly sensitive. The health risks from climate change in cities are compounded by rapid urbanization, high population density, and climate-sensitive built environments. Local governments are positioned to protect populations from climate health risks, but it is unclear whether municipalities are producing climate-adaptive policies. In this article, we develop and apply systematic methods to assess the state of public health adaptation in 401 urban areas globally with more than 1 million people, creating the first global baseline for urban public health adaptation. We find that only 10% of the sampled urban areas report any public health adaptation initiatives. The initiatives identified most frequently address risks posed by extreme weather events and involve direct changes in management or behavior rather than capacity building, research, or long-term investments in infrastructure. Based on our characterization of the current urban health adaptation landscape, we identify several gaps: limited evidence of reporting of institutional adaptation at the municipal level in urban areas in the Global South; lack of information-based adaptation initiatives; limited focus on initiatives addressing infectious disease risks; and absence of monitoring, reporting, and evaluation.}, }
@article {pmid26704454, year = {2016}, author = {Gallina, V and Torresan, S and Critto, A and Sperotto, A and Glade, T and Marcomini, A}, title = {A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {168}, number = {}, pages = {123-132}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.11.011}, pmid = {26704454}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Climatic Processes ; *Disasters ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; United States ; }, abstract = {This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process.}, }
@article {pmid26703816, year = {2016}, author = {Sarfaty, M and Kreslake, JM and Casale, TB and Maibach, EW}, title = {Views of AAAAI members on climate change and health.}, journal = {The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. In practice}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {333-5.e26}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaip.2015.09.018}, pmid = {26703816}, issn = {2213-2201}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Allergy and Immunology ; *Climate Change ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Perception ; *Public Health ; Societies, Scientific ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid26702429, year = {2015}, author = {Sahade, R and Lagger, C and Torre, L and Momo, F and Monien, P and Schloss, I and Barnes, DK and Servetto, N and Tarantelli, S and Tatián, M and Zamboni, N and Abele, D}, title = {Climate change and glacier retreat drive shifts in an Antarctic benthic ecosystem.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {1}, number = {10}, pages = {e1500050}, pmid = {26702429}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is one of the three places on Earth that registered the most intense warming in the last 50 years, almost five times the global mean. This warming has strongly affected the cryosphere, causing the largest ice-shelf collapses ever observed and the retreat of 87% of glaciers. Ecosystem responses, although increasingly predicted, have been mainly reported for pelagic systems. However, and despite most Antarctic species being benthic, responses in the Antarctic benthos have been detected in only a few species, and major effects at assemblage level are unknown. This is probably due to the scarcity of baselines against which to assess change. We performed repeat surveys of coastal benthos in 1994, 1998, and 2010, analyzing community structure and environmental variables at King George Island, Antarctica. We report a marked shift in an Antarctic benthic community that can be linked to ongoing climate change. However, rather than temperature as the primary factor, we highlight the resulting increased sediment runoff, triggered by glacier retreat, as the potential causal factor. The sudden shift from a "filter feeders-ascidian domination" to a "mixed assemblage" suggests that thresholds (for example, of tolerable sedimentation) and alternative equilibrium states, depending on the reversibility of the changes, could be possible traits of this ecosystem. Sedimentation processes will be increasing under the current scenario of glacier retreat, and attention needs to be paid to its effects along the AP.}, }
@article {pmid26700871, year = {2015}, author = {Friggens, MM and Finch, DM}, title = {Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {e0144089}, pmid = {26700871}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; New Mexico ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales.}, }
@article {pmid26699717, year = {2015}, author = {Li, Z and Fan, K and Tian, L and Shi, B and Zhang, S and Zhang, J}, title = {Response of Glacier and Lake Dynamics in Four Inland Basins to Climate Change at the Transition Zone between the Karakorum And Himalayas.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {e0144696}, pmid = {26699717}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ice Cover ; *Lakes ; *Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Inland glacier and lake dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its surroundings over recent decades are good indicators of climate change and have a significant impact on the local water supply and ecosystem. The glacier and lake changes in Karakoram are quite different from those of the Himalayas. The mechanisms of the complex and regionally heterogeneous behavior of the glacier and lake changes between the Karakorum and Himalayas are poorly understood. Based on satellite images and meteorological data of Shiquanhe, Hetian, and Yutian stations, we demonstrate that the overall retreat of glaciers and increase of lake area at the transition zone between the Karakoram and Himalayas (TKH) have occurred since 1968 in response to a significant global climate change. Glacial areas in the Songmuxi Co basin, Zepu Co basin, Mang Co basin and Unnamed Co decreased by -1.98 ± 0.02 km2, -5.39 ± 0.02 km2, -0.01 ± 0.02 km2, and -0.12 ± 0.02 km2 during the study period, corresponding to losses of -1.42%, -2.86%, -1.54%, and -1.57%, respectively. The lake area of the Songmuxi Co, Zepu Co, Mang Co and Unnamed Co increased by 7.57 ± 0.02 km2, 8.53 ± 0.02 km2, 1.35 ± 0.02 km2, and 0.53 ± 0.02 km2, corresponding to growths of 30.22%, 7.55%, 11.39%, and 8.05%, respectively. Increases in temperature was the main reason for glacier retreat, whereas decreases in potential evapotranspiration of lakes, increases in precipitation, and increases in melt water from glaciers and frozen soil all contributed to lake area expansion.}, }
@article {pmid26698311, year = {2016}, author = {Slovic, AD and de Oliveira, MA and Biehl, J and Ribeiro, H}, title = {How Can Urban Policies Improve Air Quality and Help Mitigate Global Climate Change: a Systematic Mapping Review.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {93}, number = {1}, pages = {73-95}, pmid = {26698311}, issn = {1468-2869}, support = {P2C HD047879/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Cities ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Geographic Mapping ; Humans ; *Policy ; Urban Health ; }, abstract = {Tackling climate change at the global level is central to a growing field of scientific research on topics such as environmental health, disease burden, and its resulting economic impacts. At the local level, cities constitute an important hub of atmospheric pollution due to the large amount of pollutants that they emit. As the world population shifts to urban centers, cities will increasingly concentrate more exposed populations. Yet, there is still significant progress to be made in understanding the contribution of urban pollutants other than CO2, such as vehicle emissions, to global climate change. It is therefore particularly important to study how local governments are managing urban air pollution. This paper presents an overview of local air pollution control policies and programs that aim to reduce air pollution levels in megacities. It also presents evidence measuring their efficacy. The paper argues that local air pollution policies are not only beneficial for cities but are also important for mitigating and adapting to global climate change. The results systematize several policy approaches used around the world and suggest the need for more in-depth cross-city studies with the potential to highlight best practices both locally and globally. Finally, it calls for the inclusion of a more human rights-based approach as a mean of guaranteeing of clean air for all and reducing factors that exacerbate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26697861, year = {2016}, author = {Kollah, B and Patra, AK and Mohanty, SR}, title = {Aquatic microphylla Azolla: a perspective paradigm for sustainable agriculture, environment and global climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {4358-4369}, pmid = {26697861}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Air Pollutants/*isolation &amp; purification ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; Ferns/*growth &amp; development ; Nitrogen Fixation ; Oryza/growth &amp; development ; Tracheophyta/*growth &amp; development ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {This review addresses the perspectives of Azolla as a multifaceted aquatic resource to ensure ecosystem sustainability. Nitrogen fixing potential of cyanobacterial symbiont varies between 30 and 60 kg N ha(-1) which designates Azolla as an important biological N source for agriculture and animal industry. Azolla exhibits high bioremediation potential for Cd, Cr, Cu, and Zn. Azolla mitigates greenhouse gas emission from agriculture. In flooded rice ecosystem, Azolla dual cropping decreased CH4 emission by 40 % than did urea alone and also stimulated CH4 oxidation. This review highlighted integrated approach using Azolla that offers enormous public health, environmental, and cost benefits.}, }
@article {pmid26697186, year = {2015}, author = {D'Amato, G and Vitale, C and De Martino, A and Viegi, G and Lanza, M and Molino, A and Sanduzzi, A and Vatrella, A and Annesi-Maesano, I and D'Amato, M}, title = {Effects on asthma and respiratory allergy of Climate change and air pollution.}, journal = {Multidisciplinary respiratory medicine}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {39}, pmid = {26697186}, issn = {1828-695X}, abstract = {The major changes to our world are those involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by anthropogenic factors, with impact on the biosphere and human environment. Studies on the effects of climate changes on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between allergic respiratory diseases, asthma and environmental factors, like meteorological variables, airborne allergens and air pollution. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions and westernized lifestyle are correlated with an increased frequency of respiratory allergy, mainly in people who live in urban areas in comparison with people living in rural areas. However, it is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate changes and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in general and on the timing of asthma exacerbations, although the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity could be also considered an effect of air pollution and climate changes. Since airborne allergens and air pollutants are frequently increased contemporaneously in the atmosphere, enhanced IgE-mediated response to aeroallergens and enhanced airway inflammation could account for the increasing frequency of respiratory allergy and asthma in atopic subjects in the last five decades. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the interrelationship between air pollution and respiratory allergic diseases such as rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Climatic factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, thunderstorms, etc) can affect both components (biological and chemical) of this interaction. Scientific societies should be involved in advocacy activities, such as those realized by the Global Alliance against chronic Respiratory Diseases (GARD).}, }
@article {pmid26697028, year = {2015}, author = {Legave, JM and Guédon, Y and Malagi, G and El Yaacoubi, A and Bonhomme, M}, title = {Differentiated Responses of Apple Tree Floral Phenology to Global Warming in Contrasting Climatic Regions.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {1054}, pmid = {26697028}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation (CA) declines and heat accumulation (HA) increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift toward responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid26695523, year = {2016}, author = {Cacciapaglia, C and van Woesik, R}, title = {Climate-change refugia: shading reef corals by turbidity.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {1145-1154}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13166}, pmid = {26695523}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Indian Ocean ; Models, Biological ; Pacific Ocean ; *Refugium ; Species Specificity ; *Sunlight ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Coral reefs have recently experienced an unprecedented decline as the world's oceans continue to warm. Yet global climate models reveal a heterogeneously warming ocean, which has initiated a search for refuges, where corals may survive in the near future. We hypothesized that some turbid nearshore environments may act as climate-change refuges, shading corals from the harmful interaction between high sea-surface temperatures and high irradiance. We took a hierarchical Bayesian approach to determine the expected distribution of 12 coral species in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, between the latitudes 37°N and 37°S, under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (W m(-2)) by 2100. The turbid nearshore refuges identified in this study were located between latitudes 20-30°N and 15-25°S, where there was a strong coupling between turbidity and tidal fluctuations. Our model predicts that turbidity will mitigate high temperature bleaching for 9% of shallow reef habitat (to 30 m depth) - habitat that was previously considered inhospitable under ocean warming. Our model also predicted that turbidity will protect some coral species more than others from climate-change-associated thermal stress. We also identified locations where consistently high turbidity will likely reduce irradiance to <250 μmol m(-2) s(-1) , and predict that 16% of reef-coral habitat ≤30 m will preclude coral growth and reef development. Thus, protecting the turbid nearshore refuges identified in this study, particularly in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands, the northern Philippines, the Ryukyu Islands (Japan), eastern Vietnam, western and eastern Australia, New Caledonia, the northern Red Sea, and the Arabian Gulf, should become part of a judicious global strategy for reef-coral persistence under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26692890, year = {2015}, author = {Nawrotzki, RJ and Hunter, LM and Runfola, DM and Riosmena, F}, title = {Climate Change as Migration Driver from Rural and Urban Mexico.}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {}, pmid = {26692890}, issn = {1748-9326}, support = {P2C HD066613/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R24 HD041023/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R24 HD066613/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on U.S.-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid26692656, year = {2015}, author = {Nawrotzki, RJ and Riosmena, F and Hunter, LM and Runfola, DM}, title = {Amplification or suppression: Social networks and the climate change-migration association in rural Mexico.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {35}, number = {}, pages = {463-474}, pmid = {26692656}, issn = {0959-3780}, support = {P2C HD066613/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R24 HD041023/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R24 HD066613/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Increasing rates of climate migration may be of economic and national concern to sending and destination countries. It has been argued that social networks - the ties connecting an origin and destination - may operate as "migration corridors" with the potential to strongly facilitate climate change-related migration. This study investigates whether social networks at the household and community levels amplify or suppress the impact of climate change on international migration from rural Mexico. A novel set of 15 climate change indices was generated based on daily temperature and precipitation data for 214 weather stations across Mexico. Employing geostatistical interpolation techniques, the climate change values were linked to 68 rural municipalities for which sociodemographic data and detailed migration histories were available from the Mexican Migration Project. Multi-level discrete-time event-history models were used to investigate the effect of climate change on international migration between 1986 and 1999. At the household level, the effect of social networks was approximated by comparing the first to the last move, assuming that through the first move a household establishes internal social capital. At the community level, the impact of social capital was explored through interactions with a measure of the proportion of adults with migration experience. The results show that rather than amplifying, social capital may suppress the sensitivity of migration to climate triggers, suggesting that social networks could facilitate climate change adaptation in place.}, }
@article {pmid26691721, year = {2016}, author = {Bateman, BL and Pidgeon, AM and Radeloff, VC and VanDerWal, J and Thogmartin, WE and Vavrus, SJ and Heglund, PJ}, title = {The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {1130-1144}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13154}, pmid = {26691721}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Models, Biological ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species' suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr(-1) , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr(-1)). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species' distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.}, }
@article {pmid26691578, year = {2016}, author = {Lehikoinen, A and Virkkala, R}, title = {North by north-west: climate change and directions of density shifts in birds.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {1121-1129}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13150}, pmid = {26691578}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Finland ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {There is increasing evidence that climate change shifts species distributions towards poles and mountain tops. However, most studies are based on presence-absence data, and either abundance or the observation effort has rarely been measured. In addition, hardly any studies have investigated the direction of shifts and factors affecting them. Here, we show using count data on a 1000 km south-north gradient in Finland, that between 1970-1989 and 2000-2012, 128 bird species shifted their densities, on average, 37 km towards the north north-east. The species-specific directions of the shifts in density were significantly explained by migration behaviour and habitat type. Although the temperatures have also moved on average towards the north north-east (186 km), the species-specific directions of the shifts in density and temperature did not correlate due to high variation in density shifts. Findings highlight that climate change is unlikely the only driver of the direction of species density shifts, but species-specific characteristics and human land-use practices are also influencing the direction. Furthermore, the alarming results show that former climatic conditions in the north-west corner of Finland have already moved out of the country. This highlights the need for an international approach in research and conservation actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26690584, year = {2016}, author = {Yousefi, M and Mahdavi Damghani, A and Khoramivafa, M}, title = {Comparison greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming potential (GWP) effect of energy use in different wheat agroecosystems in Iran.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {7390-7397}, pmid = {26690584}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Electricity ; Fertilizers ; Gasoline ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Iran ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrogen ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {The aims of this study were to determine energy requirement and global warming potential (GWP) in low and high input wheat production systems in western of Iran. For this purpose, data were collected from 120 wheat farms applying questionnaires via face-to-face interviews. Results showed that total energy input and output were 60,000 and 180,000 MJ ha(-1) in high input systems and 14,000 and 56,000 MJ ha(-1) in low input wheat production systems, respectively. The highest share of total input energy in high input systems recorded for electricity power, N fertilizer, and diesel fuel with 36, 18, and 13 %, respectively, while the highest share of input energy in low input systems observed for N fertilizer, diesel fuel, and seed with 32, 31, and 27 %. Energy use efficiency in high input systems (3.03) was lower than of low input systems (3.94). Total CO2, N2O, and CH4 emissions in high input systems were 1981.25, 31.18, and 1.87 kg ha(-1), respectively. These amounts were 699.88, 0.02, and 0.96 kg ha(-1) in low input systems. In high input wheat production systems, total GWP was 11686.63 kg CO2eq ha(-1) wheat. This amount was 725.89 kg CO2eq ha(-1) in low input systems. The results show that 1 ha of high input system will produce greenhouse effect 17 times of low input systems. So, high input production systems need to have an efficient and sustainable management for reducing environmental crises such as change climate.}, }
@article {pmid26690194, year = {2015}, author = {Gould, S and Rudolph, L}, title = {Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Work on Climate Change and Public Health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {15649-15672}, pmid = {26690194}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Attitude to Health ; California ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Organizational Objectives ; *Public Health Practice ; *Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses a major threat to public health. Strategies that address climate change have considerable potential to benefit health and decrease health inequities, yet public health engagement at the intersection of public health, equity, and climate change has been limited. This research seeks to understand the barriers to and opportunities for advancing work at this nexus. We conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews (N = 113) with public health and climate change professionals and thematic analysis. Barriers to public health engagement in addressing climate change include individual perceptions that climate change is not urgent or solvable and insufficient understanding of climate change's health impacts and programmatic connections. Institutional barriers include a lack of public health capacity, authority, and leadership; a narrow framework for public health practice that limits work on the root causes of climate change and health; and compartmentalization within and across sectors. Opportunities include integrating climate change into current public health practice; providing inter-sectoral support for climate solutions with health co-benefits; and using a health frame to engage and mobilize communities. Efforts to increase public health sector engagement should focus on education and communications, building leadership and funding, and increasing work on the shared root causes of climate change and health inequities.}, }
@article {pmid26690184, year = {2015}, author = {Akerlof, KL and Delamater, PL and Boules, CR and Upperman, CR and Mitchell, CS}, title = {Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {15419-15433}, pmid = {26690184}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {5UE1EH001049/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; U38 EH000944/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; 2U38EH000944/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; P2C HD050924/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; UE1 EH001049/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; Male ; Maryland ; Middle Aged ; *Public Opinion ; Risk Factors ; *Social Perception ; Urban Population/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Vulnerable Populations/*psychology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change's health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change-due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards-already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents' climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.}, }
@article {pmid26685705, year = {2015}, author = {Chapman, PM}, title = {Climate change must be considered in short- and long-term monitoring and assessment.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {101}, number = {2}, pages = {481-482}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.11.050}, pmid = {26685705}, issn = {1879-3363}, }
@article {pmid26684219, year = {2016}, author = {Allison, TC}, title = {Application of an Artificial Neural Network to the Prediction of OH Radical Reaction Rate Constants for Evaluating Global Warming Potential.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. B}, volume = {120}, number = {8}, pages = {1854-1863}, doi = {10.1021/acs.jpcb.5b09558}, pmid = {26684219}, issn = {1520-5207}, mesh = {*Computer Simulation ; *Global Warming ; Hydroxyl Radical/*chemistry ; Kinetics ; *Models, Chemical ; *Neural Networks, Computer ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Rate constants for reactions of chemical compounds with hydroxyl radical are a key quantity used in evaluating the global warming potential of a substance. Experimental determination of these rate constants is essential, but it can also be difficult and time-consuming to produce. High-level quantum chemistry predictions of the rate constant can suffer from the same issues. Therefore, it is valuable to devise estimation schemes that can give reasonable results on a variety of chemical compounds. In this article, the construction and training of an artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction of rate constants at 298 K for reactions of hydroxyl radical with a diverse set of molecules is described. Input to the ANN consists of counts of the chemical bonds and bends present in the target molecule. The ANN is trained using 792 (•)OH reaction rate constants taken from the NIST Chemical Kinetics Database. The mean unsigned percent error (MUPE) for the training set is 12%, and the MUPE of the testing set is 51%. It is shown that the present methodology yields rate constants of reasonable accuracy for a diverse set of inputs. The results are compared to high-quality literature values and to another estimation scheme. This ANN methodology is expected to be of use in a wide range of applications for which (•)OH reaction rate constants are required. The model uses only information that can be gathered from a 2D representation of the molecule, making the present approach particularly appealing, especially for screening applications.}, }
@article {pmid26684208, year = {2015}, author = {Vidal, J}, title = {Health effects of climate change highlighted in Paris Agreement.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {351}, number = {}, pages = {h6885}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.h6885}, pmid = {26684208}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Fossil Fuels/*adverse effects ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Morbidity/*trends ; Paris ; }, }
@article {pmid26682889, year = {2015}, author = {Houle, D and Paquette, A and Côté, B and Logan, T and Power, H and Charron, I and Duchesne, L}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on the Timing of the Production Season of Maple Syrup in Eastern Canada.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {e0144844}, pmid = {26682889}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acer/*growth &amp; development ; Climate Change ; Crop Production/*trends ; Logistic Models ; Models, Biological ; Quebec ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Maple syrup production is an important economic activity in north-eastern North-America. The beginning and length of the production season is linked to daily variation in temperature. There are increasing concerns about the potential impact of climatic change on this industry. Here, we used weekly data of syrup yield for the 1999-2011 period from 121 maple stands in 11 regions of Québec (Canada) to predict how the period of production may be impacted by climate warming. The date at which the production begins is highly variable between years with an average range of 36 days among the regions. However, the average start date for a given region, which ranged from Julian day 65 to 83, was highly predictable (r2 = 0.88) using the average temperature from January to April (TJ-A). A logistic model predicting the weekly presence or absence of production was also developed. Using the inputs of 77 future climate scenarios issued from global models, projections of future production timing were made based on average TJ-A and on the logistic model. The projections of both approaches were in very good agreement and suggest that the sap season will be displaced to occur 15-19 days earlier on average in the 2080-2100 period. The data also show that the displacement in time will not be accompanied by a greater between years variability in the beginning of the season. However, in the southern part of Québec, very short periods of syrup production due to unfavourable conditions in the spring will occur more frequently in the future although their absolute frequencies will remain low.}, }
@article {pmid26681982, year = {2015}, author = {Meller, L and Thuiller, W and Pironon, S and Barbet-Massin, M and Hof, A and Cabeza, M}, title = {Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds.}, journal = {Global change biology. Bioenergy}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {741-751}, pmid = {26681982}, issn = {1757-1693}, support = {281422/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.}, }
@article {pmid26680187, year = {2015}, author = {Wehner, MF and Easterling, DR}, title = {The global warming hiatus's irrelevance.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {350}, number = {6267}, pages = {1482-1483}, doi = {10.1126/science.350.6267.1482-d}, pmid = {26680187}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid26680131, year = {2015}, author = {Fordham, DA}, title = {Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {e1002323}, pmid = {26680131}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Hydrobiology/methods ; *Models, Biological ; Up-Regulation ; }, abstract = {Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species' extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26678330, year = {2016}, author = {Gherlenda, AN and Haigh, AM and Moore, BD and Johnson, SN and Riegler, M}, title = {Climate change, nutrition and immunity: Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the immune function of an insect herbivore.}, journal = {Journal of insect physiology}, volume = {85}, number = {}, pages = {57-64}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinsphys.2015.12.002}, pmid = {26678330}, issn = {1879-1611}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/*immunology/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; *Feeding Behavior ; Herbivory/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Balanced nutrition is fundamental to health and immunity. For herbivorous insects, nutrient-compositional shifts in host plants due to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature may compromise this balance. Therefore, understanding their immune responses to such shifts is vital if we are to predict the outcomes of climate change for plant-herbivore-parasitoid and pathogen interactions. We tested the immune response of Paropsis atomaria Olivier (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feeding on Eucalyptus tereticornis Sm. seedlings exposed to elevated CO2 (640 μmol mol(-1); CE) and temperature (ambient plus 4 °C; TE). Larvae were immune-challenged with a nylon monofilament in order to simulate parasitoid or pathogen attack without other effects of actual parasitism or pathology. The cellular (in vivo melanisation) and humoral (in vitro phenoloxidase PO activity) immune responses were assessed, and linked to changes in leaf chemistry. CE reduced foliar nitrogen (N) concentrations and increased C:N ratios and concentrations of total phenolics. The humoral response was reduced at CE. PO activity and haemolymph protein concentrations decreased at CE, while haemolymph protein concentrations were positively correlated with foliar N concentrations. However, the cellular response increased at CE and this was not correlated with any foliar traits. Immune parameters were not impacted by TE. Our study revealed that opposite cellular and humoral immune responses occurred as a result of plant-mediated effects at CE. In contrast, elevated temperatures within the tested range had minimal impact on immune responses. These complex interactions may alter the outcomes of parasitoid and pathogen attack in future climates.}, }
@article {pmid26674698, year = {2016}, author = {Muñoz-Mas, R and Lopez-Nicolas, A and Martínez-Capel, F and Pulido-Velazquez, M}, title = {Shifts in the suitable habitat available for brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) under short-term climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {544}, number = {}, pages = {686-700}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.11.147}, pmid = {26674698}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Trout/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on the habitat suitability for large brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) was studied in a segment of the Cabriel River (Iberian Peninsula). The future flow and water temperature patterns were simulated at a daily time step with M5 models' trees (NSE of 0.78 and 0.97 respectively) for two short-term scenarios (2011-2040) under the representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). An ensemble of five strongly regularized machine learning techniques (generalized additive models, multilayer perceptron ensembles, random forests, support vector machines and fuzzy rule base systems) was used to model the microhabitat suitability (depth, velocity and substrate) during summertime and to evaluate several flows simulated with River2D©. The simulated flow rate and water temperature were combined with the microhabitat assessment to infer bivariate habitat duration curves (BHDCs) under historical conditions and climate change scenarios using either the weighted usable area (WUA) or the Boolean-based suitable area (SA). The forecasts for both scenarios jointly predicted a significant reduction in the flow rate and an increase in water temperature (mean rate of change of ca. -25% and +4% respectively). The five techniques converged on the modelled suitability and habitat preferences; large brown trout selected relatively high flow velocity, large depth and coarse substrate. However, the model developed with support vector machines presented a significantly trimmed output range (max.: 0.38), and thus its predictions were banned from the WUA-based analyses. The BHDCs based on the WUA and the SA broadly matched, indicating an increase in the number of days with less suitable habitat available (WUA and SA) and/or with higher water temperature (trout will endure impoverished environmental conditions ca. 82% of the days). Finally, our results suggested the potential extirpation of the species from the study site during short time spans.}, }
@article {pmid26674680, year = {2016}, author = {Viola, F and Francipane, A and Caracciolo, D and Pumo, D and La Loggia, G and Noto, LV}, title = {Co-evolution of hydrological components under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean area.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {544}, number = {}, pages = {515-524}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.004}, pmid = {26674680}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Mediterranean area is historically characterized by high human pressure on water resources. Today, while climate is projected to be modified in the future, through precipitation decrease and temperature increase, that jointly and non-linearly may affect runoff, concerns about water availability are increasing. For these reasons, quantitative assessment of future modifications in the mean annual water availability are important; likewise, the description of the future interannual variability of some hydrological components such as runoff and evapotranspiration are highly wished for water management and ecosystems dynamics analyses. This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration, exploring their probability density functions and their interdependence as functions of climatic changes. In order to do that, a parsimonious conceptual lumped model is here used. The model is forced by different future climate scenarios, generated through a weather generator based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) realizations. The use of the adopted hydrological model, under reliable stochastic future climate scenarios, allows to project future values of evapotranspiration and runoff in a probabilistic framework and, at the same time, the evaluation of their bivariate frequency distributions for changes through the Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation method. As a case study, a benchmark Mediterranean watershed has been proposed (Imera Meridionale, Italy). Results suggest a radical shift and shape modification of the annual runoff and evapotranspiration probability density functions. Possible implications and impacts on water resources management are here addressed and discussed.}, }
@article {pmid26673412, year = {2016}, author = {de Boer, J and de Witt, A and Aiking, H}, title = {Help the climate, change your diet: A cross-sectional study on how to involve consumers in a transition to a low-carbon society.}, journal = {Appetite}, volume = {98}, number = {}, pages = {19-27}, doi = {10.1016/j.appet.2015.12.001}, pmid = {26673412}, issn = {1095-8304}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Carbon ; Choice Behavior ; *Climate Change ; Consumer Behavior ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Diet/*psychology ; Educational Status ; Feeding Behavior/*psychology ; Female ; Food Preferences/psychology ; Food, Organic ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Life Style ; Male ; Meat ; Middle Aged ; Netherlands ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {This paper explores how the transition to a low-carbon society to mitigate climate change can be better supported by a diet change. As climate mitigation is not the focal goal of consumers who are buying or consuming food, the study highlighted the role of motivational and cognitive background factors, including possible spillover effects. Consumer samples in the Netherlands (n = 527) and the United States (n = 556) were asked to evaluate food-related and energy-related mitigation options in a design that included three food-related options with very different mitigation potentials (i.e. eating less meat, buying local and seasonal food, and buying organic food). They rated each option's effectiveness and their willingness to adopt it. The outstanding effectiveness of the less meat option (as established by climate experts) was recognized by merely 12% of the Dutch and 6% of the American sample. Many more participants gave fairly positive effectiveness ratings and this was correlated with belief in human causation of climate change, personal importance of climate change, and being a moderate meat eater. Willingness to adopt the less meat option increased with its perceived effectiveness and, controlling for that, it was significantly related to various motivationally relevant factors. The local food option appealed to consumer segments with overlapping but partly different motivational orientations. It was concluded that a transition to a low carbon society can significantly benefit from a special focus on the food-related options to involve more consumers and to improve mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid26671930, year = {2017}, author = {Tranter, B and Lester, L}, title = {Climate patriots? Concern over climate change and other environmental issues in Australia.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, pages = {738-752}, doi = {10.1177/0963662515618553}, pmid = {26671930}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Attitude ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; *Politics ; *Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {Echoing the anti-pollution and resource conservation campaigns in the United States in the early-to-mid-twentieth century, some scholars advocate mobilising support for environmental issues by harnessing the notion of environmental patriotism. Taking action to reduce the impact of global warming has also been cast as a patriotic cause. Drawing upon quantitative data from a recent national survey, we examine the link between patriotism and environmental attitudes in Australia, focussing upon climate change. We find that patriotism has a largely neutral association with concern over environmental issues, with the exception of climate change and, to a lesser extent, wildlife preservation. Expressing concern over climate change appears to be unpatriotic for some Australians. Even after controlling for political party identification and other important correlates of environmental issue concerns, patriots are less likely than others to prioritise climate change as their most urgent environmental issue and less likely to believe that climate change is actually occurring.}, }
@article {pmid26668722, year = {2015}, author = {Duarte, G and Calderon, EN and Pereira, CM and Marangoni, LF and Santos, HF and Peixoto, RS and Bianchini, A and Castro, CB}, title = {A novel marine mesocosm facility to study global warming, water quality, and ocean acidification.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {20}, pages = {4555-4566}, pmid = {26668722}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {We describe a completely randomizable flow-through outdoor mesocosm for climate change and ecotoxicology studies that was built with inexpensive materials. The 16 raceway tanks allow up to 6× water renewal per hour, avoiding changes in natural abiotic seawater conditions. We use an open-source hardware board (Arduino) that was adapted to control heaters and an innovative CO 2 injection system. This system reduced seawater pH up to -0.9 units and increased temperature up to +6°C in three treatments and a control. Treatments can be continuously compared with the control and vary according to diel fluctuations, thus following the diel range observed in the sea. The mesocosm facility also includes an integrated secondary system of 48 aquaria for ecotoxicology studies. We validated the reproducibility and relevance of our experimental system by analyzing the variation of the total DNA of the microbial community extracted from corals in three elevated temperature scenarios during a 40-day experiment. We also present data from temperature, acidification, and copper contamination trials, which allowed continuous, reliable, and consistent treatment manipulations.}, }
@article {pmid26668431, year = {2015}, author = {Kim, R and Costello, A and Campbell-Lendrum, D}, title = {Climate change and health in Pacific island states.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {93}, number = {12}, pages = {819}, pmid = {26668431}, issn = {1564-0604}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change/mortality ; Communicable Diseases/etiology ; Disasters ; *Global Health ; Health Status ; Humans ; Interprofessional Relations ; Pacific Islands ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid26668117, year = {2016}, author = {Xu, X and Shi, Z and Chen, X and Lin, Y and Niu, S and Jiang, L and Luo, R and Luo, Y}, title = {Unchanged carbon balance driven by equivalent responses of production and respiration to climate change in a mixed-grass prairie.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {1857-1866}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13192}, pmid = {26668117}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; *Grassland ; Herbivory ; Oklahoma ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Responses of grassland carbon (C) cycling to climate change and land use remain a major uncertainty in model prediction of future climate. To explore the impacts of global change on ecosystem C fluxes and the consequent changes in C storage, we have conducted a field experiment with warming (+3 °C), altered precipitation (doubled and halved), and annual clipping at the end of growing seasons in a mixed-grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA, from 2009 to 2013. Results showed that although ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary production (GPP) negatively responded to warming, net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) did not significantly change under warming. Doubled precipitation stimulated and halved precipitation suppressed ER and GPP equivalently, with the net outcome being unchanged in NEE. These results indicate that warming and altered precipitation do not necessarily have profound impacts on ecosystem C storage. In addition, we found that clipping enhanced NEE due to a stronger positive response of GPP compared to ER, indicating that clipping could potentially be an effective land practice that could increase C storage. No significant interactions between warming, altered precipitation, and clipping were observed. Meanwhile, we found that belowground net primary production (BNPP) in general was sensitive to climate change and land use though no significant changes were found in NPP across treatments. Moreover, negative correlations of the ER/GPP ratio with soil temperature and moisture did not differ across treatments, highlighting the roles of abiotic factors in mediating ecosystem C fluxes in this grassland. Importantly, our results suggest that belowground C cycling (e.g., BNPP) could respond to climate change with no alterations in ecosystem C storage in the same period.}, }
@article {pmid26667878, year = {2016}, author = {Schwalm, D and Epps, CW and Rodhouse, TJ and Monahan, WB and Castillo, JA and Ray, C and Jeffress, MR}, title = {Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place-based approach.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {1572-1584}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13189}, pmid = {26667878}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Gene Flow ; *Lagomorpha/genetics ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; United States ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas.}, }
@article {pmid26667379, year = {2016}, author = {Sgrò, CM and Terblanche, JS and Hoffmann, AA}, title = {What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?.}, journal = {Annual review of entomology}, volume = {61}, number = {}, pages = {433-451}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-ento-010715-023859}, pmid = {26667379}, issn = {1545-4487}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Diapause, Insect ; Environment ; Insecta/*physiology ; Metamorphosis, Biological ; }, abstract = {Plastic responses figure prominently in discussions on insect adaptation to climate change. Here we review the different types of plastic responses and whether they contribute much to adaptation. Under climate change, plastic responses involving diapause are often critical for population persistence, but key diapause responses under dry and hot conditions remain poorly understood. Climate variability can impose large fitness costs on insects showing diapause and other life cycle responses, threatening population persistence. In response to stressful climatic conditions, insects also undergo ontogenetic changes including hardening and acclimation. Environmental conditions experienced across developmental stages or by prior generations can influence hardening and acclimation, although evidence for the latter remains weak. Costs and constraints influence patterns of plasticity across insect clades, but they are poorly understood within field contexts. Plastic responses and their evolution should be considered when predicting vulnerability to climate change-but meaningful empirical data lag behind theory.}, }
@article {pmid26664681, year = {2015}, author = {Rehm, EM and Olivas, P and Stroud, J and Feeley, KJ}, title = {Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range-edge populations.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {19}, pages = {4315-4326}, pmid = {26664681}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range-edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range-edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range-edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range-core populations. We also highlight how large-scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest-cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range-edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range-edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26663766, year = {2016}, author = {Huang, M and Piao, S and Zeng, Z and Peng, S and Ciais, P and Cheng, L and Mao, J and Poulter, B and Shi, X and Yao, Y and Yang, H and Wang, Y}, title = {Seasonal responses of terrestrial ecosystem water-use efficiency to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {2165-2177}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13180}, pmid = {26663766}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Plant Transpiration ; *Seasons ; Water ; *Water Cycle ; }, abstract = {Ecosystem water-use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of carbon-water interactions and is defined as the ratio of carbon assimilation (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET). Previous research suggests an increasing long-term trend in annual EWUE over many regions and is largely attributed to the physiological effects of rising CO2 . The seasonal trends in EWUE, however, have not yet been analyzed. In this study, we investigate seasonal EWUE trends and responses to various drivers during 1982-2008. The seasonal cycle for two variants of EWUE, water-use efficiency (WUE, GPP/ET), and transpiration-based WUE (WUEt , the ratio of GPP and transpiration), is analyzed from 0.5° gridded fields from four process-based models and satellite-based products, as well as a network of 63 local flux tower observations. WUE derived from flux tower observations shows moderate seasonal variation for most latitude bands, which is in agreement with satellite-based products. In contrast, the seasonal EWUE trends are not well captured by the same satellite-based products. Trend analysis, based on process-model factorial simulations separating effects of climate, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition (NDEP), further suggests that the seasonal EWUE trends are mainly associated with seasonal trends of climate, whereas CO2 and NDEP do not show obvious seasonal difference in EWUE trends. About 66% grid cells show positive annual WUE trends, mainly over mid- and high northern latitudes. In these regions, spring climate change has amplified the effect of CO2 in increasing WUE by more than 0.005 gC m(-2) mm(-1) yr(-1) for 41% pixels. Multiple regression analysis further shows that the increase in springtime WUE in the northern hemisphere is the result of GPP increasing faster than ET because of the higher temperature sensitivity of GPP relative to ET. The partitioning of annual EWUE to seasonal components provides new insight into the relative sensitivities of GPP and ET to climate, CO2, and NDEP.}, }
@article {pmid26662734, year = {2016}, author = {Lázaro-Nogal, A and Matesanz, S and Hallik, L and Krasnova, A and Traveset, A and Valladares, F}, title = {Population differentiation in a Mediterranean relict shrub: the potential role of local adaptation for coping with climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {180}, number = {4}, pages = {1075-1090}, pmid = {26662734}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; Carbohydrate Metabolism ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Magnoliopsida/metabolism/*physiology ; Mediterranean Region ; *Phenotype ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Stress, Physiological ; Water/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Plants can respond to climate change by either migrating, adapting to the new conditions or going extinct. Relict plant species of limited distribution can be especially vulnerable as they are usually composed of small and isolated populations, which may reduce their ability to cope with rapidly changing environmental conditions. The aim of this study was to assess the vulnerability of Cneorum tricoccon L. (Cneoraceae), a Mediterranean relict shrub of limited distribution, to a future drier climate. We evaluated population differentiation in functional traits related to drought tolerance across seven representative populations of the species' range. We measured morphological and physiological traits in both the field and the greenhouse under three water availability levels. Large phenotypic differences among populations were found under field conditions. All populations responded plastically to simulated drought, but they differed in mean trait values as well as in the slope of the phenotypic response. Particularly, dry-edge populations exhibited multiple functional traits that favored drought tolerance, such as more sclerophyllous leaves, strong stomatal control but high photosynthetic rates, which increases water use efficiency (iWUE), and an enhanced ability to accumulate sugars as osmolytes. Although drought decreased RGR in all populations, this reduction was smaller for populations from the dry edge. Our results suggest that dry-edge populations of this relict species are well adapted to drought, which could potentially mitigate the species' extinction risk under drier scenarios. Dry-edge populations not only have a great conservation value but can also change expectations from current species' distribution models.}, }
@article {pmid26661135, year = {2016}, author = {Brown, CJ and O'Connor, MI and Poloczanska, ES and Schoeman, DS and Buckley, LB and Burrows, MT and Duarte, CM and Halpern, BS and Pandolfi, JM and Parmesan, C and Richardson, AJ}, title = {Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {1548-1560}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13184}, pmid = {26661135}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Aquatic Organisms ; *Climate Change ; Ecology/*methods ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species' responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species' responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species' distribution and phenology changes.}, }
@article {pmid26658608, year = {2015}, author = {Jerez, S and Tobin, I and Vautard, R and Montávez, JP and López-Romero, JM and Thais, F and Bartok, B and Christensen, OB and Colette, A and Déqué, M and Nikulin, G and Kotlarski, S and van Meijgaard, E and Teichmann, C and Wild, M}, title = {The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {10014}, pmid = {26658608}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (-14%;+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.}, }
@article {pmid26657975, year = {2015}, author = {Schulte, DM and Dridge, KM and Hudgins, MH}, title = {Climate Change and the Evolution and Fate of the Tangier Islands of Chesapeake Bay, USA.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {17890}, doi = {10.1038/srep17890}, pmid = {26657975}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change and associated sea level rise (SLR) are already impacting low-lying coastal areas, including islands, throughout the world. Many of these areas are inhabited, many will need to be abandoned in coming decades as SLR continues. We examine the evolution (1850-2013) of the last inhabited offshore island in Virginia waters of Chesapeake Bay USA, the Tangier Islands. Three SLR scenarios, a low, mid, and high, were considered. Since 1850, 66.75% of the islands landmass has been lost. Under the mid-range SLR scenario, much of the remaining landmass is expected to be lost in the next 50 years and the Town will likely need to be abandoned. The high SLR scenario will accelerate the land loss and subsidence, such that the Town may need to be abandoned in as few as 25 years. We propose a conceptual plan that would significantly extend the lifespan of the islands and Town.}, }
@article {pmid26654491, year = {2015}, author = {Chevillotte, J}, title = {[Climate change, health challenges of tomorrow?].}, journal = {Revue de l'infirmiere}, volume = {}, number = {216}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1016/j.revinf.2015.10.023}, pmid = {26654491}, issn = {1293-8505}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Forecasting ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid26649996, year = {2016}, author = {Radinger, J and Hölker, F and Horký, P and Slavík, O and Dendoncker, N and Wolter, C}, title = {Synergistic and antagonistic interactions of future land use and climate change on river fish assemblages.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {1505-1522}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13183}, pmid = {26649996}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Europe ; *Fishes ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {River ecosystems are threatened by future changes in land use and climatic conditions. However, little is known of the influence of interactions of these two dominant global drivers of change on ecosystems. Does the interaction amplify (synergistic interaction) or buffer (antagonistic interaction) the impacts and does their interaction effect differ in magnitude, direction and spatial extent compared to single independent pressures. In this study, we model the impact of single and interacting effects of land use and climate change on the spatial distribution of 33 fish species in the Elbe River. The varying effects were modeled using step-wise boosted regression trees based on 250 m raster grid cells. Species-specific models were built for both 'moderate' and 'extreme' future land use and climate change scenarios to assess synergistic, additive and antagonistic interaction effects on species losses, species gains and diversity indices and to quantify their spatial distribution within the Elbe River network. Our results revealed species richness is predicted to increase by 0.7-2.9 species by 2050 across the entire river network. Changes in species richness are likely to be spatially variable with significant changes predicted for 56-85% of the river network. Antagonistic interactions would dominate species losses and gains in up to 75% of the river network. In contrast, synergistic and additive effects would occur in only 20% and 16% of the river network, respectively. The magnitude of the interaction was negatively correlated with the magnitudes of the single independent effects of land use and climate change. Evidence is provided to show that future land use and climate change effects are highly interactive resulting in species range shifts that would be spatially variable in size and characteristic. These findings emphasize the importance of adaptive river management and the design of spatially connected conservation areas to compensate for these high species turnovers and range shifts.}, }
@article {pmid26648483, year = {2016}, author = {Hewitt, JE and Ellis, JI and Thrush, SF}, title = {Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {8}, pages = {2665-2675}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13176}, pmid = {26648483}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; *Oceans and Seas ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid26648385, year = {2016}, author = {Smith, TB and Gyory, J and Brandt, ME and Miller, WJ and Jossart, J and Nemeth, RS}, title = {Caribbean mesophotic coral ecosystems are unlikely climate change refugia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {8}, pages = {2756-2765}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13175}, pmid = {26648385}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa ; Caribbean Region ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; *Refugium ; }, abstract = {Deeper coral reefs experience reduced temperatures and light and are often shielded from localized anthropogenic stressors such as pollution and fishing. The deep reef refugia hypothesis posits that light-dependent stony coral species at deeper depths are buffered from thermal stress and will avoid bleaching-related mass mortalities caused by increasing sea surface temperatures under climate change. This hypothesis has not been tested because data collection on deeper coral reefs is difficult. Here we show that deeper (mesophotic) reefs, 30-75 m depth, in the Caribbean are not refugia because they have lower bleaching threshold temperatures than shallow reefs. Over two thermal stress events, mesophotic reef bleaching was driven by a bleaching threshold that declines 0.26 °C every +10 m depth. Thus, the main premise of the deep reef refugia hypothesis that cooler environments are protective is incorrect; any increase in temperatures above the local mean warmest conditions can lead to thermal stress and bleaching. Thus, relatively cooler temperatures can no longer be considered a de facto refugium for corals and it is likely that many deeper coral reefs are as vulnerable to climate change as shallow water reefs.}, }
@article {pmid26647007, year = {2016}, author = {Betowski, D and Bevington, C and Allison, TC}, title = {Estimation of Radiative Efficiency of Chemicals with Potentially Significant Global Warming Potential.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {50}, number = {2}, pages = {790-797}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.5b04154}, pmid = {26647007}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Global Warming ; *Hydrocarbons, Halogenated ; Models, Theoretical ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Sunlight ; Vibration ; }, abstract = {Halogenated chemical substances are used in a broad array of applications, and new chemical substances are continually being developed and introduced into commerce. While recent research has considerably increased our understanding of the global warming potentials (GWPs) of multiple individual chemical substances, this research inevitably lags behind the development of new chemical substances. There are currently over 200 substances known to have high GWP. Evaluation of schemes to estimate radiative efficiency (RE) based on computational chemistry are useful where no measured IR spectrum is available. This study assesses the reliability of values of RE calculated using computational chemistry techniques for 235 chemical substances against the best available values. Computed vibrational frequency data is used to estimate RE values using several Pinnock-type models, and reasonable agreement with reported values is found. Significant improvement is obtained through scaling of both vibrational frequencies and intensities. The effect of varying the computational method and basis set used to calculate the frequency data is discussed. It is found that the vibrational intensities have a strong dependence on basis set and are largely responsible for differences in computed RE values.}, }
@article {pmid26645380, year = {2015}, author = {Wobus, C and Prucha, R and Albert, D and Woll, C and Loinaz, M and Jones, R and Travers, C}, title = {Hydrologic Alterations from Climate Change Inform Assessment of Ecological Risk to Pacific Salmon in Bristol Bay, Alaska.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {e0143905}, pmid = {26645380}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Alaska ; Animals ; Calibration ; *Climate Change ; *Ecology ; *Hydrology ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {We developed an integrated hydrologic model of the upper Nushagak and Kvichak watersheds in the Bristol Bay region of southwestern Alaska, a region under substantial development pressure from large-scale copper mining. We incorporated climate change scenarios into this model to evaluate how hydrologic regimes and stream temperatures might change in a future climate, and to summarize indicators of hydrologic alteration that are relevant to salmon habitat ecology and life history. Model simulations project substantial changes in mean winter flow, peak flow dates, and water temperature by 2100. In particular, we find that annual hydrographs will no longer be dominated by a single spring thaw event, but will instead be characterized by numerous high flow events throughout the winter. Stream temperatures increase in all future scenarios, although these temperature increases are moderated relative to air temperatures by cool baseflow inputs during the summer months. Projected changes to flow and stream temperature could influence salmon through alterations in the suitability of spawning gravels, changes in the duration of incubation, increased growth during juvenile stages, and increased exposure to chronic and acute temperature stress. These climate-modulated changes represent a shifting baseline in salmon habitat quality and quantity in the future, and an important consideration to adequately assess the types and magnitude of risks associated with proposed large-scale mining in the region.}, }
@article {pmid26642169, year = {2015}, author = {Trask, JA}, title = {An academic approach to climate change emergency preparedness.}, journal = {Journal of business continuity &amp; emergency planning}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {119-128}, pmid = {26642169}, issn = {1749-9216}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Commerce/*organization &amp; administration ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Risk Management/*organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {To achieve effective emergency management and business continuity, all hazards should be considered during the planning and preparedness process. In recent years, several new hazards have attracted the attention of Emergency Management and Business Continuity practitioners. Climate change presents a unique challenge. Practitioners must rely on historical data combined with scientific projections to guide their planning and preparedness efforts. This article examines how an academic institution's emergency management programme can plan successfully for this hazard by focusing on best practices in the area of building cross-departmental and cross-jurisdictional relationships. Examples of scientific data related to the hazard of climate change will be presented along with the latest guidance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency encouraging the planning for future hazards. The article presents a functional exercise in which this hazard was prominently featured, and presents testimony from subject matter experts. Recommendations for emergency management and business continuity programmes are so provided.}, }
@article {pmid26641244, year = {2015}, author = {Romeo Upperman, C and Parker, J and Jiang, C and He, X and Murtugudde, R and Sapkota, A}, title = {Frequency of Extreme Heat Event as a Surrogate Exposure Metric for Examining the Human Health Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {e0144202}, pmid = {26641244}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {R21 ES021422/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R24 HD041041/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; 1R21ES021422-01A1/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Epidemiological Monitoring ; Female ; Heat Exhaustion/*epidemiology ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Male ; }, abstract = {Epidemiological investigation of the impact of climate change on human health, particularly chronic diseases, is hindered by the lack of exposure metrics that can be used as a marker of climate change that are compatible with health data. Here, we present a surrogate exposure metric created using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989) that allows users to quantify long-term changes in exposure to frequency of extreme heat events with near unabridged spatial coverage in a scale that is compatible with national/state health outcome data. We evaluate the exposure metric by decade, seasonality, area of the country, and its ability to capture long-term changes in weather (climate), including natural climate modes. Our findings show that this generic exposure metric is potentially useful to monitor trends in the frequency of extreme heat events across varying regions because it captures long-term changes; is sensitive to the natural climate modes (ENSO events); responds well to spatial variability, and; is amenable to spatial/temporal aggregation, making it useful for epidemiological studies.}, }
@article {pmid26640750, year = {2015}, author = {Fernandez, MA and Bucaram, SJ and Renteria, W}, title = {Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador.}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {738}, pmid = {26640750}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a case study as socioeconomic data are readily available. To incorporate the spatial and temporal pattern of the climatic variables we use reanalysis datasets and empirical orthogonal functions. Our assessment strategy relies on the statistical behavior of climatic and socioeconomic indicators for the weighting and aggregation mechanism into a composite vulnerability indicator. Rather than assuming equal contribution to the formation of the composite indicator, we assume that the weights of the indicators vary inversely as the variance over the cantons (administrative division of Ecuador). This approach captures the multi-dimensionality of vulnerability in a comprehensive form. We find that the least vulnerable cantons concentrate around Ecuador's largest cities (e.g. Quito and Guayaquil); however, approximately 20 % of the national population lives in other cantons that are categorized as highly and very highly vulnerable to climate change. Results also show that the main determinants of high vulnerability are the lack of land tenure in agricultural areas and the nonexistence of government-funded programs directed to environmental and climate change management.}, }
@article {pmid26640687, year = {2015}, author = {McQuillan, MA and Rice, AM}, title = {Differential effects of climate and species interactions on range limits at a hybrid zone: potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {21}, pages = {5120-5137}, pmid = {26640687}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The relative contributions of climate versus interspecific interactions in shaping species distributions have important implications for closely related species at contact zones. When hybridization occurs within a contact zone, these factors regulate hybrid zone location and movement. While a hybrid zone's position may depend on both climate and interactions between the hybridizing species, little is known about how these factors interact to affect hybrid zone dynamics. Here, we utilize SDM (species distribution modeling) both to characterize the factors affecting the current location of a moving North American avian hybrid zone and to predict potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on future distributions. We focus on two passerine species that hybridize where their ranges meet, the Black-capped (Poecile atricapillus) and Carolina (P. carolinensis) chickadee. Our contemporary climate models predict the occurrence of climatically suitable habitat extending beyond the hybrid zone for P. atricapillus only, suggesting that interspecific interactions primarily regulate this range boundary in P. atricapillus, while climatic factors regulate P. carolinensis. Year 2050 climate models predict a drastic northward shift in suitable habitat for P. carolinensis. Because of the greater importance of interspecific interactions for regulating the southern range limit of P. atricapillus, these climate-mediated shifts in the distribution of P. carolinensis may indirectly lead to a range retraction in P. atricapillus. Together, our results highlight the ways climate change can both directly and indirectly affect species distributions and hybrid zone location. In addition, our study lends support to the longstanding hypothesis that abiotic factors regulate species' poleward range limits, while biotic factors shape equatorial range limits.}, }
@article {pmid26640519, year = {2015}, author = {Bourret, A and Bélisle, M and Pelletier, F and Garant, D}, title = {Multidimensional environmental influences on timing of breeding in a tree swallow population facing climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {933-944}, pmid = {26640519}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Most phenological traits are extremely sensitive to current climate change, and advances in the timing of important life-history events have been observed in many species. In birds, phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature is thought to be the main mechanism underlying yearly adjustment in the timing of breeding. However, other factors could be important and interact to affect the levels of plastic responses between and/or within-individuals. Here, we use long-term individual-based data on tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) to identify the spatial and environmental drivers affecting plasticity in laying date and to assess their importance at both population and individual levels. We found that laying date has advanced by 4.2 days over 10 years, and that it was mainly influenced by latitude and an interaction between spring temperature and breeder density. Analyses of individual plasticity showed that increases in temperature, but not in breeder density, resulted in within-individual advances in laying date. Our results suggest that females can adjust their laying date as a function of temperature, but that this adjustment will be partly constrained in habitats with lower breeder densities. Such potential constraint is especially worrying for the broad array of species already declining as a result of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26637196, year = {2016}, author = {Grillakis, MG and Koutroulis, AG and Tsanis, IK}, title = {The 2 °C global warming effect on summer European tourism through different indices.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {60}, number = {8}, pages = {1205-1215}, pmid = {26637196}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Climate ; Europe ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; Thermosensing ; *Travel ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate and weather patterns are an essential resource for outdoor tourism activities. The projected changes in climate and weather patterns are expected to affect the future state of tourism. The present study aims to quantify the positive or negative effect of a 2 °C global warming on summertime climate comfort in the sense of exercising activities that involve light body activity. The well-established Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) and three variants of the widely used Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) were analyzed. Additionally, a new index based on TCI and CIT was tested and compared against the precious indices. Past and future climate data of five high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) from different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (Euro-CORDEX) for a +2 °C period were used. The results indicate improvement in the climate comfort for the majority of European areas for the May to October period. For the June to August period, central and northern European areas are projected to improve, while marginal improvement is found for Mediterranean countries. Furthermore, in specific cases of adjacent Mediterranean areas such as the southern Iberian Peninsula, the June to August climate favorability is projected to reduce as a result of the increase to daytime temperature. The use of a set of different indices and different RCMs and RCPs samples a large fraction of the uncertainty that is crucial for providing robust regional impact information due to climate change. The analysis revealed the similarities and the differences in the magnitude of change across the different indices. Moreover, discrepancies were found in the results of different concentration pathways to the +2 °C global warming, with the RCP8.5 projecting more significant changes for some of the analyzed indices. The estimation of the TCI using different timescale climate data did not change the results on tourism significantly.}, }
@article {pmid26634433, year = {2015}, author = {Tan, X and Gan, TY}, title = {Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {17767}, pmid = {26634433}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow.}, }
@article {pmid26630544, year = {2016}, author = {Hurlbert, M and Gupta, J}, title = {Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {339-356}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12510}, pmid = {26630544}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Argentina ; Canada ; Chile ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Floods ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Public Policy ; Risk ; Rivers ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy.}, }
@article {pmid26627122, year = {2016}, author = {Ludwig, R and Roson, R}, title = {Climate change, water and security in the Mediterranean: Introduction to the special issue.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {543}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {847-850}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.10.142}, pmid = {26627122}, issn = {1879-1026}, }
@article {pmid26626733, year = {2015}, author = {Xiong, Z and Liu, Y and Wu, Z and Zhang, X and Liu, P and Huang, T}, title = {Differences in net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity between major rice-based cropping systems in China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {17774}, pmid = {26626733}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {China ; *Crop Production ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/*analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Double rice (DR) and upland crop-single rice (UR) systems are the major rice-based cropping systems in China, yet differences in net global warming potential (NGWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) between the two systems are poorly documented. Accordingly, a 3-year field experiment was conducted to simultaneously measure methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) in oil rape-rice-rice and wheat-rice (representing DR and UR, respectively) systems with straw incorporation (0, 3 and 6 t/ha) during the rice-growing seasons. Compared with the UR system, the annual CH4, N2O, grain yield and NGWP were significantly increased in the DR system, though little effect on SOC sequestration or GHGI was observed without straw incorporation. Straw incorporation increased CH4 emission and SOC sequestration but had no significant effect on N2O emission in both systems. Averaged over the three study years, straw incorporation had no significant effect on NGWP and GHGI in the UR system, whereas these parameters were greatly increased in the DR system, i.e., by 108% (3 t/ha) and 180% (6 t/ha) for NGWP and 103% (3 t/ha) and 168% (6 t/ha) for GHGI.}, }
@article {pmid26621098, year = {2016}, author = {McCright, AM and Charters, M and Dentzman, K and Dietz, T}, title = {Examining the Effectiveness of Climate Change Frames in the Face of a Climate Change Denial Counter-Frame.}, journal = {Topics in cognitive science}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {76-97}, doi = {10.1111/tops.12171}, pmid = {26621098}, issn = {1756-8765}, mesh = {Awareness ; *Climate Change ; Culture ; *Denial, Psychological ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Policy ; Program Evaluation/*methods ; Psychology, Experimental/methods ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {Prior research on the influence of various ways of framing anthropogenic climate change (ACC) do not account for the organized ACC denial in the U.S. media and popular culture, and thus may overestimate these frames' influence in the general public. We conducted an experiment to examine how Americans' ACC views are influenced by four promising frames for urging action on ACC (economic opportunity, national security, Christian stewardship, and public health)-when these frames appear with an ACC denial counter-frame. This is the first direct test of how exposure to an ACC denial message influences Americans' ACC views. Overall, these four positive frames have little to no effect on ACC beliefs. But exposure to an ACC denial counter-frame does significantly reduce respondents' belief in the reality of ACC, belief about the veracity of climate science, awareness of the consequences of ACC, and support for aggressively attempting to reduce our nation's GHG emissions in the near future. Furthermore, as expected by the Anti-Reflexivity Thesis, exposure to the ACC denial counter-frame has a disproportionate influence on the ACC views of conservatives (than on those of moderates and liberals), effectively activating conservatives' underlying propensity for anti-reflexivity.}, }
@article {pmid26619328, year = {2015}, author = {, }, title = {Correction: Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need 21st Century Conservation Options.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {e0144311}, pmid = {26619328}, issn = {1932-6203}, }
@article {pmid26619186, year = {2015}, author = {Carvalho, BM and Rangel, EF and Ready, PD and Vale, MM}, title = {Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {e0143282}, pmid = {26619186}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Statistical ; Psychodidae/*physiology ; South America ; }, abstract = {Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.}, }
@article {pmid26618637, year = {2015}, author = {Sarma, RR and Munsi, M and Ananthram, AN}, title = {Effect of Climate Change on Invasion Risk of Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica Férussac, 1821: Achatinidae) in India.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {e0143724}, pmid = {26618637}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; India ; *Introduced Species ; Islands ; Models, Biological ; Oceans and Seas ; Snails/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica) is considered to be one the world's 100 worst invasive alien species. The snail has an impact on native biodiversity, and on agricultural and horticultural crops. In India, it is known to feed on more than fifty species of native plants and agricultural crops and also outcompetes the native snails. It was introduced into India in 1847 and since then it has spread all across the country. In this paper, we use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the distribution pattern of Giant African Snail (GAS) under different climate change scenarios. The niche modeling results indicate that under the current climate scenario, Eastern India, peninsular India and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are at high risk of invasion. The three different future climate scenarios show that there is no significant change in the geographical distribution of invasion prone areas. However, certain currently invaded areas will be more prone to invasion in the future. These regions include parts of Bihar, Southern Karnataka, parts of Gujarat and Assam. The Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands are highly vulnerable to invasion under changed climate. The Central Indian region is at low risk due to high temperature and low rainfall. An understanding of the invasion pattern can help in better management of this invasive species and also in formulating policies for its control.}, }
@article {pmid26616338, year = {2015}, author = {Baldini, JU and Brown, RJ and McElwaine, JN}, title = {Was millennial scale climate change during the Last Glacial triggered by explosive volcanism?.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {17442}, pmid = {26616338}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The mechanisms responsible for millennial scale climate change within glacial time intervals are equivocal. Here we show that all eight known radiometrically-dated Tambora-sized or larger NH eruptions over the interval 30 to 80 ka BP are associated with abrupt Greenland cooling (>95% confidence). Additionally, previous research reported a strong statistical correlation between the timing of Southern Hemisphere volcanism and Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events (>99% confidence), but did not identify a causative mechanism. Volcanic aerosol-induced asymmetrical hemispheric cooling over the last few hundred years restructured atmospheric circulation in a similar fashion as that associated with Last Glacial millennial-scale shifts (albeit on a smaller scale). We hypothesise that following both recent and Last Glacial NH eruptions, volcanogenic sulphate injections into the stratosphere cooled the NH preferentially, inducing a hemispheric temperature asymmetry that shifted atmospheric circulation cells southward. This resulted in Greenland cooling, Antarctic warming, and a southward shifted ITCZ. However, during the Last Glacial, the initial eruption-induced climate response was prolonged by NH glacier and sea ice expansion, increased NH albedo, AMOC weakening, more NH cooling, and a consequent positive feedback. Conversely, preferential SH cooling following large SH eruptions shifted atmospheric circulation to the north, resulting in the characteristic features of DO events.}, }
@article {pmid26615730, year = {2015}, author = {Woods, HA and Dillon, ME and Pincebourde, S}, title = {The roles of microclimatic diversity and of behavior in mediating the responses of ectotherms to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {54}, number = {}, pages = {86-97}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2014.10.002}, pmid = {26615730}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; Body Size ; *Body Temperature ; *Climate Change ; *Microclimate ; *Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {We analyze the effects of changing patterns of thermal availability, in space and time, on the performance of small ectotherms. We approach this problem by breaking it into a series of smaller steps, focusing on: (1) how macroclimates interact with living and nonliving objects in the environment to produce a mosaic of thermal microclimates and (2) how mobile ectotherms filter those microclimates into realized body temperatures by moving around in them. Although the first step (generation of mosaics) is conceptually straightforward, there still exists no general framework for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of microclimatic variation. We organize potential variation along three axes-the nature of the objects producing the microclimates (abiotic versus biotic), how microclimates translate macroclimatic variation (amplify versus buffer), and the temporal and spatial scales over which microclimatic conditions vary (long versus short). From this organization, we propose several general rules about patterns of microclimatic diversity. To examine the second step (behavioral sampling of locally available microclimates), we construct a set of models that simulate ectotherms moving on a thermal landscape according to simple sets of diffusion-based rules. The models explore the effects of both changes in body size (which affect the time scale over which organisms integrate operative body temperatures) and increases in the mean and variance of temperature on the thermal landscape. Collectively, the models indicate that both simple behavioral rules and interactions between body size and spatial patterns of thermal variation can profoundly affect the distribution of realized body temperatures experienced by ectotherms. These analyses emphasize the rich set of problems still to solve before arriving at a general, predictive theory of the biological consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26615728, year = {2015}, author = {Walker, S and Stuart-Fox, D and Kearney, MR}, title = {Has contemporary climate change played a role in population declines of the lizard Ctenophorus decresii from semi-arid Australia?.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {54}, number = {}, pages = {66-77}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2014.12.001}, pmid = {26615728}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Lizards/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Whilst contemporary climatic changes are small in magnitude compared to those predicted for the coming decades, they have already been linked to species range shifts and local extinctions. Elucidating the drivers behind species' responses to contemporary climate change will better inform management strategies for vulnerable and pest species alike. A recent proposal to explain worldwide local extinctions in lizards is that increasing maximum temperatures have constrained lizard activity time in the breeding season beyond extinction thresholds. Here we document a significant population decline and potential local extinction at the warm (northern) range margin of the tawny dragon, Ctenophorus decresii, a rock-dwelling lizard from the Flinders Ranges in semi-arid Australia. We developed and tested a biophysical model of tawny dragon thermoregulatory behaviour and drove the model with daily weather data for the period 1990-2009 across the Flinders Ranges. Our results indicate that potential annual activity time has likely increased over this period throughout the historic range, with within-season declines only in the summer months at the northern range limit. However, populations that have declined since 2000 have also likely experienced higher active body temperatures and more stringent retreat-site requirements (deeper crevices) than have regions where the species remains common, during a period of declining rainfall. Our laboratory estimates of thermal preference in this species were insensitive to altered nutritional and hydric state. Thus it is possible that recent population declines are linked to desiccation stress driven by higher body temperatures and declining rainfall. Our study illustrates that simple indices of the impact of climate warming on animals, such as activity restriction, may in fact reflect a variety of potential mechanisms whose ultimate outcome will be contingent on other factors such as water and shelter availability.}, }
@article {pmid26615080, year = {2015}, author = {Machalaba, C and Romanelli, C and Stoett, P and Baum, SE and Bouley, TA and Daszak, P and Karesh, WB}, title = {Climate Change and Health: Transcending Silos to Find Solutions.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {81}, number = {3}, pages = {445-458}, pmid = {26615080}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Food Supply ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has myriad implications for the health of humans, our ecosystems, and the ecological processes that sustain them. Projections of rising greenhouse gas emissions suggest increasing direct and indirect burden of infectious and noninfectious disease, effects on food and water security, and other societal disruptions. As the effects of climate change cannot be isolated from social and ecological determinants of disease that will mitigate or exacerbate forecasted health outcomes, multidisciplinary collaboration is critically needed.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The aim of this article was to review the links between climate change and its upstream drivers (ie, processes leading to greenhouse gas emissions) and health outcomes, and identify existing opportunities to leverage more integrated global health and climate actions to prevent, prepare for, and respond to anthropogenic pressures.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a literature review of current and projected health outcomes associated with climate change, drawing on findings and our collective expertise to review opportunities for adaptation and mitigation across disciplines.<br><br>FINDINGS: Health outcomes related to climate change affect a wide range of stakeholders, providing ready collaborative opportunities for interventions, which can be differentiated by addressing the upstream drivers leading to climate change or the downstream effects of climate change itself.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Although health professionals are challenged with risks from climate change and its drivers, the adverse health outcomes cannot be resolved by the public health community alone. A phase change in global health is needed to move from a passive responder in partnership with other societal sectors to drive innovative alternatives. It is essential for global health to step outside of its traditional boundaries to engage with other stakeholders to develop policy and practical solutions to mitigate disease burden of climate change and its drivers; this will also yield compound benefits that help address other health, environmental, and societal challenges.}, }
@article {pmid26615079, year = {2015}, author = {Rudolph, L and Gould, S}, title = {Climate Change and Health Inequities: A Framework for Action.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {81}, number = {3}, pages = {432-444}, doi = {10.1016/j.aogh.2015.06.003}, pmid = {26615079}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Public Health ; Socioeconomic Factors ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid26615078, year = {2015}, author = {Bowles, DC}, title = {Climate Change and Health Adaptation: Consequences for Indigenous Physical and Mental Health.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {81}, number = {3}, pages = {427-431}, doi = {10.1016/j.aogh.2015.06.004}, pmid = {26615078}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Adaptation, Psychological ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; *Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ; }, }
@article {pmid26615077, year = {2015}, author = {Ebi, KL and Prats, EV}, title = {Health in National Climate Change Adaptation Planning.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {81}, number = {3}, pages = {418-426}, pmid = {26615077}, issn = {2214-9996}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Strategic Planning ; }, }
@article {pmid26615075, year = {2015}, author = {Ring, W}, title = {Inspire Hope, Not Fear: Communicating Effectively About Climate Change and Health.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {81}, number = {3}, pages = {410-415}, doi = {10.1016/j.aogh.2015.06.006}, pmid = {26615075}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communication ; Fear ; Health Education ; *Health Personnel ; Hope ; Humans ; Leadership ; *Professional Role ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid26615074, year = {2015}, author = {Maibach, EW and Kreslake, JM and Roser-Renouf, C and Rosenthal, S and Feinberg, G and Leiserowitz, AA}, title = {Do Americans Understand That Global Warming Is Harmful to Human Health? Evidence From a National Survey.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {81}, number = {3}, pages = {396-409}, doi = {10.1016/j.aogh.2015.08.010}, pmid = {26615074}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Climate Change ; Communication ; Female ; *Global Warming ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Public Health ; Risk ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global warming has significant negative consequences for human health, with some groups at greater risk than others. The extent to which the public is aware of these risks is unclear; the limited extant research has yielded discrepant findings.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: This paper describes Americans' awareness of the health effects of global warming, levels of support for government funding and action on the issue, and trust in information sources. We also investigate the discrepancy in previous research findings between assessments based on open- versus closed-ended questions.<br><br>METHODS: A nationally representative survey of US adults (N&#xa0;= 1275) was conducted online in October 2014. Measures included general attitudes and beliefs about global warming, affective assessment of health effects, vulnerable populations and specific health conditions (open- and closed-ended), perceived risk, trust in sources, and support for government response.<br><br>FINDINGS: Most respondents (61%) reported that, before taking the survey, they had given little or no thought to how global warming might affect people's health. In response to a closed-ended question, many respondents (64%) indicated global warming is harmful to health, yet in response to an open-ended question, few (27%) accurately named one or more specific type of harm. In response to a closed-ended question, 33% indicated some groups are more affected than others, yet on an open-ended question only 25% were able to identify any disproportionately affected populations. Perhaps not surprising given these findings, respondents demonstrated only limited support for a government response: less than 50% of respondents said government should be doing more to protect against health harms from global warming, and about 33% supported increased funding to public health agencies for this purpose. Respondents said their primary care physician is their most trusted source of information on this topic, followed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization, and their local public health department.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Most Americans report a general sense that global warming can be harmful to health, but relatively few understand the types of harm it causes or who is most likely to be affected. Perhaps as a result, there is only moderate support for an expanded public health response. Primary care physicians and public health officials appear well positioned to educate the public about the health relevance of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26615069, year = {2015}, author = {DeNicola, E and Aburizaiza, OS and Siddique, A and Khwaja, H and Carpenter, DO}, title = {Climate Change and Water Scarcity: The Case of Saudi Arabia.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {81}, number = {3}, pages = {342-353}, doi = {10.1016/j.aogh.2015.08.005}, pmid = {26615069}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Drinking Water ; *Food Supply ; Global Warming ; Groundwater ; Humans ; Outsourced Services ; *Public Health ; Recycling ; *Sanitation ; Saudi Arabia ; Water Purification ; *Water Quality ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to bring increases in average global temperatures (1.4°C-5.8°C [34.52°F-42.44°F] by 2100) and precipitation levels to varying degrees around the globe. The availability and quality of water will be severely affected, and public health threats from the lack of this valuable resource will be great unless water-scarce nations are able to adapt. Saudi Arabia provides a good example of how the climate and unsustainable human activity go hand in hand in creating stress on and depleting water resources, and an example for adaptation and mitigation.<br><br>METHOD: A search of the English literature addressing climate change, water scarcity, human health, and related topics was conducted using online resources and databases accessed through the University at Albany, State University of New York library web page.<br><br>RESULTS: Water scarcity, which encompasses both water availability and water quality, is an important indicator of health. Beyond drinking, water supply is intimately linked to food security, sanitation, and hygiene, which are primary contributors to the global burden of disease. Poor and disadvantaged populations are the ones who will suffer most from the negative effects of climate change on water supply and associated human health issues. Examples of adaptation and mitigation measures that can help reduce the strain on conventional water resources (surface waters and fossil aquifers or groundwater) include desalination, wastewater recycling and reuse, and outsourcing food items or "virtual water trade." These are strategies being used by Saudi Arabia, a country that is water poor primarily due to decades of irresponsible irrigation practices. The human and environmental health risks associated with these adaptation measures are examined. Finally, strategies to protect human health through international collaboration and the importance of these efforts are discussed.<br><br>CONCLUSION: International, multidisciplinary cooperation and collaboration will be needed to promote global water security and to protect human health, particularly in low-income countries that do not have the resources necessary to adapt on their own.}, }
@article {pmid26615065, year = {2015}, author = {Levy, BS and Patz, JA}, title = {Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Justice.}, journal = {Annals of global health}, volume = {81}, number = {3}, pages = {310-322}, doi = {10.1016/j.aogh.2015.08.008}, pmid = {26615065}, issn = {2214-9996}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; Disease Vectors ; Drinking Water ; Foodborne Diseases ; *Global Health ; Global Warming ; Heat Stress Disorders ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; Malnutrition ; Public Health ; Respiratory Tract Diseases ; *Social Justice ; Waterborne Diseases ; }, abstract = {The environmental and health consequences of climate change, which disproportionately affect low-income countries and poor people in high-income countries, profoundly affect human rights and social justice. Environmental consequences include increased temperature, excess precipitation in some areas and droughts in others, extreme weather events, and increased sea level. These consequences adversely affect agricultural production, access to safe water, and worker productivity, and, by inundating land or making land uninhabitable and uncultivatable, will force many people to become environmental refugees. Adverse health effects caused by climate change include heat-related disorders, vector-borne diseases, foodborne and waterborne diseases, respiratory and allergic disorders, malnutrition, collective violence, and mental health problems. These environmental and health consequences threaten civil and political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights, including rights to life, access to safe food and water, health, security, shelter, and culture. On a national or local level, those people who are most vulnerable to the adverse environmental and health consequences of climate change include poor people, members of minority groups, women, children, older people, people with chronic diseases and disabilities, those residing in areas with a high prevalence of climate-related diseases, and workers exposed to extreme heat or increased weather variability. On a global level, there is much inequity, with low-income countries, which produce the least greenhouse gases (GHGs), being more adversely affected by climate change than high-income countries, which produce substantially higher amounts of GHGs yet are less immediately affected. In addition, low-income countries have far less capability to adapt to climate change than high-income countries. Adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change needed to protect human society must also be planned to protect human rights, promote social justice, and avoid creating new problems or exacerbating existing problems for vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid26612869, year = {2017}, author = {Veltri, GA and Atanasova, D}, title = {Climate change on Twitter: Content, media ecology and information sharing behaviour.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, pages = {721-737}, doi = {10.1177/0963662515613702}, pmid = {26612869}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Information Dissemination/methods ; Internet ; *Public Opinion ; *Social Media/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {This article presents a study of the content, use of sources and information sharing about climate change analysing over 60,000 tweets collected using a random week sample. We discuss the potential for studying Twitter as a communicative space that is rich in different types of information and presents both new challenges and opportunities. Our analysis combines automatic thematic analysis, semantic network analysis and text classification according to psychological process categories. We also consider the media ecology of tweets and the external web links that users shared. In terms of content, the network of topics uncovered presents a multidimensional discourse that accounts for complex causal links between climate change and its consequences. The media ecology analysis revealed a narrow set of sources with a major role played by traditional media and that emotionally arousing text was more likely to be shared.}, }
@article {pmid26612835, year = {2015}, author = {Fawcett, AA and Iyer, GC and Clarke, LE and Edmonds, JA and Hultman, NE and McJeon, HC and Rogelj, J and Schuler, R and Alsalam, J and Asrar, GR and Creason, J and Jeong, M and McFarland, J and Mundra, A and Shi, W}, title = {CLIMATE POLICY. Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {350}, number = {6265}, pages = {1168-1169}, doi = {10.1126/science.aad5761}, pmid = {26612835}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid26610294, year = {2016}, author = {Ngo, NS and Horton, RM}, title = {Climate change and fetal health: The impacts of exposure to extreme temperatures in New York City.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {144}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {158-164}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2015.11.016}, pmid = {26610294}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Air Pollution ; *Birth Weight ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Fetus ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; *Models, Theoretical ; New York City ; Pregnancy ; Social Class ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES).<br><br>METHODS: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health.<br><br>RESULTS: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature <25 &#xb0;F and >85 &#xb0;F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070-2099 period of 4.6g in the business-as-usual scenario.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.}, }
@article {pmid26608411, year = {2016}, author = {Assis, J and Lucas, AV and Bárbara, I and Serrão, E&#xc1;}, title = {Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {113}, number = {}, pages = {174-182}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2015.11.005}, pmid = {26608411}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; Demography ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Laminaria/*physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L. hyperborea. Because no genetic baseline is currently available for this species, our results may represent a first step in informing conservation and mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid26608354, year = {2015}, author = {He, C and Zhou, T and Lin, A and Wu, B and Gu, D and Li, C and Zheng, B}, title = {Enhanced or Weakened Western North Pacific Subtropical High under Global Warming?.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {16771}, pmid = {26608354}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) regulates East Asian climate in summer. Anomalous WNPSH causes floods, droughts and heat waves in China, Japan and Korea. The potential change of the WNPSH under global warming is concerned by Asian people, but whether the WNPSH would be enhanced or weakened remains inconclusive. Based on the multi-model climate change projection from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we show evidences that the WNPSH tends to weaken and retreat eastward in the mid-troposphere in response to global warming, accompanied by an eastward expansion of East Asian rain belt along the northwestern flank of WNPSH. Weakened meridional temperature gradient on the northern flank of WNPSH and the associated thermal wind account for the weakened WNPSH in the mid troposphere. We recommend the WNPSH be measured by eddy geopotential height (He) instead of traditionally used geopotential height, especially in climate change studies.}, }
@article {pmid26607949, year = {2015}, author = {Sekerci, Y and Petrovskii, S}, title = {Mathematical Modelling of Plankton-Oxygen Dynamics Under the Climate Change.}, journal = {Bulletin of mathematical biology}, volume = {77}, number = {12}, pages = {2325-2353}, doi = {10.1007/s11538-015-0126-0}, pmid = {26607949}, issn = {1522-9602}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Mathematical Concepts ; Models, Biological ; Oxygen/*metabolism ; Phytoplankton/metabolism ; Plankton/*metabolism ; Zooplankton/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Ocean dynamics is known to have a strong effect on the global climate change and on the composition of the atmosphere. In particular, it is estimated that about 70% of the atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. However, the rate of oxygen production depends on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. In this paper, we address this issue theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that a sustainable oxygen production is only possible in an intermediate range of the production rate. If, in the course of time, the oxygen production rate becomes too low or too high, the system's dynamics changes abruptly, resulting in the oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. Our results indicate that the depletion of atmospheric oxygen on global scale (which, if happens, obviously can kill most of life on Earth) is another possible catastrophic consequence of the global warming, a global ecological disaster that has been overlooked.}, }
@article {pmid26607571, year = {2016}, author = {Kozma, R and Melsted, P and Magnússon, KP and Höglund, J}, title = {Looking into the past - the reaction of three grouse species to climate change over the last million years using whole genome sequences.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {570-580}, doi = {10.1111/mec.13496}, pmid = {26607571}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Galliformes/classification/*genetics ; Genetic Variation ; Mutation Rate ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Tracking past population fluctuations can give insight into current levels of genetic variation present within species. Analysing population dynamics over larger timescales can be aligned to known climatic changes to determine the response of species to varying environments. Here, we applied the Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (psmc) model to infer past population dynamics of three widespread grouse species; black grouse, willow grouse and rock ptarmigan. This allowed the tracking of the effective population size (Ne) of all three species beyond 1 Mya, revealing that (i) early Pleistocene cooling (~2.5 Mya) caused an increase in the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan populations, (ii) the mid-Brunhes event (~430 kya) and following climatic oscillations decreased the Ne of willow grouse and rock ptarmigan, but increased the Ne of black grouse and (iii) all three species reacted differently to the last glacial maximum (LGM) - black grouse increased prior to it, rock ptarmigan experienced a severe bottleneck and willow grouse was maintained at large population size. We postulate that the varying psmc signal throughout the LGM depicts only the local history of the species. Nevertheless, the large population fluctuations in willow grouse and rock ptarmigan indicate that both species are opportunistic breeders while black grouse tracks the climatic changes more slowly and is maintained at lower Ne . Our results highlight the usefulness of the psmc approach in investigating species' reaction to climate change in the deep past, but also that caution should be taken in drawing general conclusions about the recent past.}, }
@article {pmid26607535, year = {2015}, author = {Buckley, R}, title = {Climate change also creates expatriates.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {527}, number = {7579}, pages = {446}, pmid = {26607535}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Emigrants and Immigrants ; Emigration and Immigration/*trends ; *Floods ; *Global Warming ; Micronesia ; Refugees ; Seawater/analysis ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid26602654, year = {2015}, author = {Rafferty, AM and Stott, R and Watts, N}, title = {An alliance for action on climate change.}, journal = {Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987)}, volume = {30}, number = {13}, pages = {17}, doi = {10.7748/ns.30.13.17.s21}, pmid = {26602654}, issn = {2047-9018}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cooperative Behavior ; Humans ; Nurses/*trends ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid26602430, year = {2015}, author = {Vidal, J}, title = {Paris climate change talks: what doctors need to know.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {351}, number = {}, pages = {h6316}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.h6316}, pmid = {26602430}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Environmental Exposure/adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Public Health/methods ; }, }
@article {pmid26601276, year = {2015}, author = {Palmer, G and Hill, JK and Brereton, TM and Brooks, DR and Chapman, JW and Fox, R and Oliver, TH and Thomas, CD}, title = {Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species' distribution and abundance changes.}, journal = {Science advances}, volume = {1}, number = {9}, pages = {e1400220}, pmid = {26601276}, issn = {2375-2548}, abstract = {The responses of animals and plants to recent climate change vary greatly from species to species, but attempts to understand this variation have met with limited success. This has led to concerns that predictions of responses are inherently uncertain because of the complexity of interacting drivers and biotic interactions. However, we show for an exemplar group of 155 Lepidoptera species that about 60% of the variation among species in their abundance trends over the past four decades can be explained by species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Distribution changes were less well predicted, but nonetheless, up to 53% of the variation was explained. We found that species vary in their overall sensitivity to climate and respond to different components of the climate despite ostensibly experiencing the same climate changes. Hence, species have undergone different levels of population "forcing" (exposure), driving variation among species in their national-scale abundance and distribution trends. We conclude that variation in species' responses to recent climate change may be more predictable than previously recognized.}, }
@article {pmid26598653, year = {2016}, author = {Farrell, J}, title = {Corporate funding and ideological polarization about climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {113}, number = {1}, pages = {92-97}, pmid = {26598653}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Drawing on large-scale computational data and methods, this research demonstrates how polarization efforts are influenced by a patterned network of political and financial actors. These dynamics, which have been notoriously difficult to quantify, are illustrated here with a computational analysis of climate change politics in the United States. The comprehensive data include all individual and organizational actors in the climate change countermovement (164 organizations), as well as all written and verbal texts produced by this network between 1993-2013 (40,785 texts, more than 39 million words). Two main findings emerge. First, that organizations with corporate funding were more likely to have written and disseminated texts meant to polarize the climate change issue. Second, and more importantly, that corporate funding influences the actual thematic content of these polarization efforts, and the discursive prevalence of that thematic content over time. These findings provide new, and comprehensive, confirmation of dynamics long thought to be at the root of climate change politics and discourse. Beyond the specifics of climate change, this paper has important implications for understanding ideological polarization more generally, and the increasing role of private funding in determining why certain polarizing themes are created and amplified. Lastly, the paper suggests that future studies build on the novel approach taken here that integrates large-scale textual analysis with social networks.}, }
@article {pmid26597713, year = {2015}, author = {Lewandowsky, S and Risbey, JS and Oreskes, N}, title = {On the definition and identifiability of the alleged "hiatus" in global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {16784}, pmid = {26597713}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Recent public debate and the scientific literature have frequently cited a "pause" or "hiatus" in global warming. Yet, multiple sources of evidence show that climate change continues unabated, raising questions about the status of the "hiatus". To examine whether the notion of a "hiatus" is justified by the available data, we first document that there are multiple definitions of the "hiatus" in the literature, with its presumed onset spanning a decade. For each of these definitions we compare the associated temperature trend against trends of equivalent length in the entire record of modern global warming. The analysis shows that the "hiatus" trends are encompassed within the overall distribution of observed trends. We next assess the magnitude and significance of all possible trends up to 25 years duration looking backwards from each year over the past 30 years. At every year during the past 30 years, the immediately preceding warming trend was always significant when 17 years (or more) were included in the calculation, alleged "hiatus" periods notwithstanding. If current definitions of the "pause" used in the literature are applied to the historical record, then the climate system "paused" for more than 1/3 of the period during which temperatures rose 0.6 K.}, }
@article {pmid26594940, year = {2016}, author = {Brown, L}, title = {Preparing for the Public Health Challenges of Climate Change: Perspectives From Local Public Health.}, journal = {Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {102-104}, doi = {10.1097/PHH.0000000000000356}, pmid = {26594940}, issn = {1550-5022}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Policy ; *Local Government ; *Public Health ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid26594350, year = {2015}, author = {Brook, BW and Fordham, DA}, title = {Hot topics in biodiversity and climate change research.}, journal = {F1000Research}, volume = {4}, number = {F1000 Faculty Rev}, pages = {928}, pmid = {26594350}, issn = {2046-1402}, abstract = {With scientific and societal interest in biodiversity impacts of climate change growing enormously over the last decade, we analysed directions and biases in the recent most highly cited data papers in this field of research (from 2012 to 2014). The majority of this work relied on leveraging large databases of already collected historical information (but not paleo- or genetic data), and coupled these to new methodologies for making forward projections of shifts in species' geographical ranges, with a focus on temperate and montane plants. A consistent finding was that the pace of climate-driven habitat change, along with increased frequency of extreme events, is outpacing the capacity of species or ecological communities to respond and adapt.}, }
@article {pmid26591881, year = {2015}, author = {Nikolaishvili, D and Trapaidze, V and Kalandadze, B and Mamukashvili, T and Sharashenidze, M}, title = {Complex evaluation of climate-change--an example from Georgia's landscapes.}, journal = {Journal of environmental biology}, volume = {36 Spec No}, number = {}, pages = {43-49}, pmid = {26591881}, issn = {0254-8704}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Georgia (Republic) ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The purpose of this study was to develop spatial-temporal model of Georgia's landscapes, which gives a chance to determine the current tendencies of landscape changes in different landscapes, such as humidity/aridity, increase/decrease of bio-productivity, etc. The model used gives possibility to reveal causes of mosaic changes, associated with global climate change. The studywas based on the conception of spatial-temporal analysis and synthesis of landscapes. It was carried out in different landscapes across Georgia. The daily geo-conditions and annual dynamics of landscapes was determined by analyzing some long-term data collected from meteorological stations. As a complex value, daily geo-conditions of landscapes were analyzed. On the bases of inventory of landscapes, GIS-technology and thematic mapping, main tendencies in the landscapes were developed. Arid, Semiarid, Semi-humid landscapes occupied a great area, which formed approximately 1/3 part of the whole territory of Georgia. These include 8 types, 11 sub-types of landscapes and 24 genera. The main share of these landscapes was concentrated in East Georgia, but some semi-humid areas were spread in West Georgia. The influence of climate change was evaluated considering several parameters, such as change of forest area, share of agricultural land in the total area of landscape, degree of fragmentation of landscapes and productivity of vegetation.}, }
@article {pmid26591463, year = {2015}, author = {Tweiten, MA and Calcote, RR and Lynch, EA and Hotchkiss, SC and Schuurman, GW}, title = {Geophysical features influence the climate change sensitivity of northern Wisconsin pine and oak forests.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {25}, number = {7}, pages = {1984-1996}, doi = {10.1890/14-2015.1}, pmid = {26591463}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forestry ; *Forests ; *Geological Phenomena ; Pinus/*physiology ; Quercus/*physiology ; Soil ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Wisconsin ; }, abstract = {Landscape-scale vulnerability assessment from multiple sources, including paleoecological site histories, can inform climate change adaptation. We used an array of lake sediment pollen and charcoal records to determine how soils and landscape factors influenced the variability of forest composition change over the past 2000 years. The forests in this study are located in northwestern Wisconsin on a sandy glacial outwash plain. Soils and local climate vary across the study area. We used the Natural Resource Conservation Service's Soil Survey Geographic soil database and published fire histories to characterize differences in soils and fire history around each lake site. Individual site histories differed in two metrics of past vegetation dynamics: the extent to which white pine (Pinus strobus) increased during the Little Ice Age (LIA) climate period and the volatility in the rate of change between samples at 50-120 yr intervals. Greater increases of white pine during the LIA occurred on sites with less sandy soils (R[2] = 0.45, P < 0.0163) and on sites with relatively warmer and drier local climate (R[2] = 0.55, P < 0.0056). Volatility in the rate of change between samples was positively associated with LIA fire frequency (R[2] = 0.41, P < 0.0256). Over multi-decadal to centennial timescales, forest compositional change and rate-of-change volatility were associated with higher fire frequency. Over longer (multi-centennial) time frames, forest composition change, especially increased white pine, shifted most in sites with more soil moisture. Our results show that responsiveness of forest composition to climate change was influenced by soils, local climate, and fire. The anticipated climatic changes in the next century will not produce the same community dynamics on the same soil types as in the past, but understanding past dynamics and relationships can help us assess how novel factors and combinations of factors in the future may influence various site types. Our results support climate change adaptation efforts to monitor and conserve the landscape's full range of geophysical features.}, }
@article {pmid26591448, year = {2015}, author = {Schuetz, JG and Langham, GM and Soykan, CU and Wilsey, CB and Auer, T and Sanchez, CC}, title = {Making spatial prioritizations robust to climate change uncertainties: a case study with North American birds.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {25}, number = {7}, pages = {1819-1831}, doi = {10.1890/14-1903.1}, pmid = {26591448}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Models, Biological ; North America ; Software ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Spatial prioritizations are essential tools for conserving biodiversity in the face of accelerating climate change. Uncertainty about species' responses to changing climates can complicate prioritization efforts, however, and delay conservation investment. In an effort to facilitate decision-making, we identified three hypotheses about species' potential responses to climate change based on distinct biological assumptions related to niche flexibility and colonization ability. Using 314 species of North American birds as a test case, we tuned separate spatial prioritizations to each hypothesis and assessed the degree to which assumptions about biological responses affected the perceived conservation value of the landscape and prospects for individual taxa. We also developed a bet-hedging prioritization to minimize the chance that incorrect assumptions would lead to valuable landscapes and species being overlooked in multispecies prioritizations. Collectively, these analyses help to quantify the sensitivity of spatial prioritizations to different assumptions about species' responses to climate change and provide a framework for enabling efficient conservation investment despite substantial biological uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid26589829, year = {2016}, author = {Xiao, D and Tao, F}, title = {Contributions of cultivar shift, management practice and climate change to maize yield in North China Plain in 1981-2009.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {60}, number = {7}, pages = {1111-1122}, pmid = {26589829}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods/trends ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize (Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981-2009 from four representative experimental stations in North China Plain (NCP) were analyzed via model simulation. The four representative experimental stations are geographically and climatologically different, represent the typical cropping system in the study area, and have more complete weather/crop records for the period of 1981-2009. The results showed that while the shift from traditional to modern cultivar increased yield by 23.9-40.3 %, new fertilizer management increased yield by 3.3-8.6 %. However, the trends in climate variables for 1981-2009 reduced maize yield by 15-30 % in the study area. Among the main climate variables, solar radiation had the largest effect on maize yield, followed by temperature and then precipitation. While a significant decline in solar radiation in 1981-2009 (maybe due to air pollution) reduced yield by 12-24 %, a significant increase in temperature reduced yield by 3-9 %. In contrast, a non-significant increase in precipitation during the maize growth period increased yield by 0.9-3 % at three of the four investigated stations. However, a decline in precipitation reduced yield by 3 % in the remaining station. The study revealed that although the shift from traditional to modern cultivars and agronomic management practices contributed most to the increase in maize yield, the negative impact of climate change was large enough to offset 46-67 % of the trend in the observed yields in the past three decades in NCP. The reduction in solar radiation, especially in the most critical period of maize growth, limited the process of photosynthesis and thereby further reduced maize yield.}, }
@article {pmid26586747, year = {2015}, author = {Creutzig, F and Jochem, P and Edelenbosch, OY and Mattauch, L and van Vuuren, DP and McCollum, D and Minx, J}, title = {Energy and environment. Transport: A roadblock to climate change mitigation?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {350}, number = {6263}, pages = {911-912}, doi = {10.1126/science.aac8033}, pmid = {26586747}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid26581757, year = {2015}, author = {Watts, N and Stott, R and Rafferty, AM}, title = {Combating climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {351}, number = {}, pages = {h6178}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.h6178}, pmid = {26581757}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Public Policy ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid26581732, year = {2015}, author = {van der Linden, S and Maibach, E and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Improving Public Engagement With Climate Change: Five "Best Practice" Insights From Psychological Science.}, journal = {Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {758-763}, doi = {10.1177/1745691615598516}, pmid = {26581732}, issn = {1745-6924}, mesh = {Behavioral Sciences ; *Climate Change ; *Decision Making ; *Environmental Policy ; Humans ; Motivation ; *Policy Making ; Practice Guidelines as Topic ; *Public Opinion ; Risk ; Social Norms ; United States ; }, abstract = {Despite being one of the most important societal challenges of the 21st century, public engagement with climate change currently remains low in the United States. Mounting evidence from across the behavioral sciences has found that most people regard climate change as a nonurgent and psychologically distant risk-spatially, temporally, and socially-which has led to deferred public decision making about mitigation and adaptation responses. In this article, we advance five simple but important "best practice" insights from psychological science that can help governments improve public policymaking about climate change. Particularly, instead of a future, distant, global, nonpersonal, and analytical risk that is often framed as an overt loss for society, we argue that policymakers should (a) emphasize climate change as a present, local, and personal risk; (b) facilitate more affective and experiential engagement; (c) leverage relevant social group norms; (d) frame policy solutions in terms of what can be gained from immediate action; and (e) appeal to intrinsically valued long-term environmental goals and outcomes. With practical examples we illustrate how these key psychological principles can be applied to support societal engagement and climate change policymaking.}, }
@article {pmid26580230, year = {2016}, author = {Chadwick, AE}, title = {Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.}, journal = {Health communication}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {782-785}, doi = {10.1080/10410236.2014.1002030}, pmid = {26580230}, issn = {1532-7027}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Communication ; Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects.}, }
@article {pmid26579951, year = {2015}, author = {Ryan, SJ and McNally, A and Johnson, LR and Mordecai, EA and Ben-Horin, T and Paaijmans, K and Lafferty, KD}, title = {Mapping Physiological Suitability Limits for Malaria in Africa Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Vector borne and zoonotic diseases (Larchmont, N.Y.)}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {718-725}, pmid = {26579951}, issn = {1557-7759}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Animals ; Anopheles/*parasitology/physiology ; Climate Change ; Geography ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*parasitology/physiology ; Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology/*transmission ; *Models, Theoretical ; Plasmodium falciparum/*physiology ; Population Density ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.}, }
@article {pmid26578752, year = {2015}, author = {Dance, A}, title = {Inner Workings: Climate change frees ancient artifacts.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {46}, pages = {14113-14114}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1518967112}, pmid = {26578752}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid26578161, year = {2015}, author = {Chilcoat, D}, title = {Adapting to climate change in the agricultural sector.}, journal = {Genome}, volume = {58}, number = {12}, pages = {503-505}, doi = {10.1139/gen-2015-0147}, pmid = {26578161}, issn = {1480-3321}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid26577840, year = {2016}, author = {Tack, J and Barkley, A and Rife, TW and Poland, JA and Nalley, LL}, title = {Quantifying variety-specific heat resistance and the potential for adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {8}, pages = {2904-2912}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13163}, pmid = {26577840}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Seasons ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on crop yields has become widely measured; however, the linkages for winter wheat are less studied due to dramatic weather changes during the long growing season that are difficult to model. Recent research suggests significant reductions under warming. A potential adaptation strategy involves the development of heat resistant varieties by breeders, combined with alternative variety selection by producers. However, the impact of heat on specific wheat varieties remains relatively unstudied due to limited data and the complex genetic basis of heat tolerance. Here, we provide a novel econometric approach that combines field-trial data with a genetic cluster mapping to group wheat varieties and estimate a separate extreme heat impact (temperatures over 34 °C) across 24 clusters spanning 197 varieties. We find a wide range of heterogeneous heat resistance and a trade-off between average yield and resistance. Results suggest that recently released varieties are less heat resistant than older varieties, a pattern that also holds for on-farm varieties. Currently released - but not yet adopted - varieties do not offer improved resistance relative to varieties currently grown on farm. Our findings suggest that warming impacts could be significantly reduced through advances in wheat breeding and/or adoption decisions by producers. However, current adaptation-through-adoption potential is limited under a 1 °C warming scenario as increased heat resistance cannot be achieved without a reduction in average yields.}, }
@article {pmid26577595, year = {2015}, author = {Trnka, M and Hlavinka, P and Semenov, MA}, title = {Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society, Interface}, volume = {12}, number = {112}, pages = {}, pmid = {26577595}, issn = {1742-5662}, support = {BB/K00882X/1//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Crop Production ; Europe ; Humans ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions.}, }
@article {pmid26568024, year = {2015}, author = {Liao, E and Lu, W and Yan, XH and Jiang, Y and Kidwell, A}, title = {The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {16630}, pmid = {26568024}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid26564848, year = {2015}, author = {Allison, EH and Bassett, HR}, title = {Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {350}, number = {6262}, pages = {778-782}, doi = {10.1126/science.aac8721}, pmid = {26564848}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; *Oceans and Seas ; Politics ; *Public Policy ; Social Sciences/trends ; }, abstract = {Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society's diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions.}, }
@article {pmid26564847, year = {2015}, author = {Sydeman, WJ and Poloczanska, E and Reed, TE and Thompson, SA}, title = {Climate change and marine vertebrates.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {350}, number = {6262}, pages = {772-777}, doi = {10.1126/science.aac9874}, pmid = {26564847}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; Birds/*classification ; *Climate Change ; *Endangered Species ; Extinction, Biological ; Fishes/*classification ; Mammals/*classification ; Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; Seawater ; Turtles/*classification ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species.}, }
@article {pmid26564846, year = {2015}, author = {Spalding, MD and Brown, BE}, title = {Warm-water coral reefs and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {350}, number = {6262}, pages = {769-771}, doi = {10.1126/science.aad0349}, pmid = {26564846}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; *Coral Reefs ; *Global Warming ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Seawater ; Symbiosis ; Water Pollution ; }, abstract = {Coral reefs are highly dynamic ecosystems that are regularly exposed to natural perturbations. Human activities have increased the range, intensity, and frequency of disturbance to reefs. Threats such as overfishing and pollution are being compounded by climate change, notably warming and ocean acidification. Elevated temperatures are driving increasingly frequent bleaching events that can lead to the loss of both coral cover and reef structural complexity. There remains considerable variability in the distribution of threats and in the ability of reefs to survive or recover from such disturbances. Without significant emissions reductions, however, the future of coral reefs is increasingly bleak.}, }
@article {pmid26564845, year = {2015}, author = {Levin, LA and Le Bris, N}, title = {The deep ocean under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {350}, number = {6262}, pages = {766-768}, doi = {10.1126/science.aad0126}, pmid = {26564845}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Acids ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Hydrodynamics ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen ; }, abstract = {The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid26564587, year = {2015}, author = {Guo, F and Jiang, G and Polk, JS and Huang, X and Huang, S}, title = {Resilience of Groundwater Impacted by Land Use and Climate Change in a Karst Aquifer, South China.}, journal = {Water environment research : a research publication of the Water Environment Federation}, volume = {87}, number = {11}, pages = {1990-1998}, doi = {10.2175/106143015X14362865226798}, pmid = {26564587}, issn = {1061-4303}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; *Groundwater ; Hydrology ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Changes of groundwater flow and quality were investigated in a subtropical karst aquifer to determine the driving mechanism. Decreases in groundwater flow are more distinct in discharge zones than those in recharge and runoff zones. Long-term measurement of the represented regional groundwater outlet reveals that groundwater discharge decrease by nearly 50% during the dry season. The hydrochemistry of groundwater in the runoff and discharge zones is of poorer quality than in the recharge zone. Indications of intensive land resource exploitation and changes in land use patterns were attributed to changes in groundwater conditions since 1990, but the influence of climate change was likely from 2001, because the water temperature exhibited increasing trends at a mean rate of 0.02 °C/yr even though groundwater depth was high in the aquifer. These conclusions imply the need for further groundwater monitoring and reevaluation to understand the resilience of aquifer during urbanization and development.}, }
@article {pmid26563993, year = {2015}, author = {Briga, M and Verhulst, S}, title = {Large diurnal temperature range increases bird sensitivity to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {16600}, pmid = {26563993}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Circadian Rhythm/*physiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Feeding Behavior/physiology ; Female ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate variability is changing on multiple temporal scales, and little is known of the consequences of increases in short-term variability, particularly in endotherms. Using mortality data with high temporal resolution of zebra finches living in large outdoor aviaries (5 years, 359.220 bird-days), we show that mortality rate increases almost two-fold per 1°C increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR). Interestingly, the DTR effect differed between two groups with low versus high experimentally manipulated foraging costs, reflecting a typical laboratory 'easy' foraging environment and a 'hard' semi-natural environment respectively. DTR increased mortality on days with low minimum temperature in the easy foraging environment, but on days with high minimum temperature in the semi-natural environment. Thus, in a natural environment DTR effects will become increasingly important in a warming world, something not detectable in an 'easy' laboratory environment. These effects were particularly apparent at young ages. Critical time window analyses showed that the effect of DTR on mortality is delayed up to three months, while effects of minimum temperature occurred within a week. These results show that daily temperature variability can substantially impact the population viability of endothermic species.}, }
@article {pmid26563383, year = {2016}, author = {Li, X and Philp, J and Cremades, R and Roberts, A and He, L and Li, L and Yu, Q}, title = {Agricultural vulnerability over the Chinese Loess Plateau in response to climate change: Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {45}, number = {3}, pages = {350-360}, pmid = {26563383}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fertilizers ; Guanosine Diphosphate ; Income ; Rural Population ; Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Understanding how the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change can differ spatially has practical significance to sustainable management of agricultural systems worldwide. Accordingly, this study developed a conceptual framework to assess the agricultural vulnerability of 243 rural counties on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Indicators representing the climate/agriculture interface were selected to describe exposure and sensitivity, while stocks of certain capitals were used to describe adaptive capacity. A vulnerability index for each county was calculated and the spatial distribution was mapped. Results showed that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity occur independently, with most contributing indicator values concentrated in a narrow range after normalization. Within the 49 most vulnerable counties, which together encompass 81 % of the vulnerability index range, 42 were characterized by high exposure and sensitivity but low adaptive capacity. The most vulnerable area was found to be located in the central northeast-southwest belt of Loess Plateau. Adaptation measures for both ecological restoration and economic development are needed and potential adaptation options need further investigation.}, }
@article {pmid26563053, year = {2015}, author = {O'Day, T and Wallace, C}, title = {Members take action to reduce effects of climate change.}, journal = {The American nurse}, volume = {47}, number = {5}, pages = {13}, pmid = {26563053}, issn = {0098-1486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid26561899, year = {2015}, author = {Selvey, LA}, title = {Climate change is harmful to our health: taking action will have many benefits.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {203}, number = {10}, pages = {397-398}, doi = {10.5694/mja15.00655}, pmid = {26561899}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention &amp; control ; *Environmental Health ; Global Health/*trends ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Health Promotion/*methods ; Humans ; Public Health ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid26559327, year = {2015}, author = {Pistevos, JC and Nagelkerken, I and Rossi, T and Olmos, M and Connell, SD}, title = {Ocean acidification and global warming impair shark hunting behaviour and growth.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {16293}, pmid = {26559327}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; *Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; *Predatory Behavior ; Seawater/*chemistry ; *Sharks ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Alterations in predation pressure can have large effects on trophically-structured systems. Modification of predator behaviour via ocean warming has been assessed by laboratory experimentation and metabolic theory. However, the influence of ocean acidification with ocean warming remains largely unexplored for mesopredators, including experimental assessments that incorporate key components of the assemblages in which animals naturally live. We employ a combination of long-term laboratory and mesocosm experiments containing natural prey and habitat to assess how warming and acidification affect the development, growth, and hunting behaviour in sharks. Although embryonic development was faster due to temperature, elevated temperature and CO2 had detrimental effects on sharks by not only increasing energetic demands, but also by decreasing metabolic efficiency and reducing their ability to locate food through olfaction. The combination of these effects led to considerable reductions in growth rates of sharks held in natural mesocosms with elevated CO2, either alone or in combination with higher temperature. Our results suggest a more complex reality for predators, where ocean acidification reduces their ability to effectively hunt and exert strong top-down control over food webs.}, }
@article {pmid26556581, year = {2016}, author = {Quijano, JC and Jackson, PR and Santacruz, S and Morales, VM and García, MH}, title = {Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {50}, number = {1}, pages = {478-488}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.5b04094}, pmid = {26556581}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Illinois ; *Lakes ; *Power Plants ; Thermodynamics ; }, abstract = {We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.}, }
@article {pmid26555860, year = {2015}, author = {Maxwell, SL and Venter, O and Jones, KR and Watson, JE}, title = {Integrating human responses to climate change into conservation vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1355}, number = {}, pages = {98-116}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12952}, pmid = {26555860}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/trends ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid26555331, year = {2015}, author = {Lee, SY and Ryan, ME and Hamlet, AF and Palen, WJ and Lawler, JJ and Halabisky, M}, title = {Correction: Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {e0142960}, pmid = {26555331}, issn = {1932-6203}, }
@article {pmid26555281, year = {2015}, author = {Parmesan, C and Hanley, ME}, title = {Plants and climate change: complexities and surprises.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {116}, number = {6}, pages = {849-864}, pmid = {26555281}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Flowers/metabolism ; Introduced Species ; Phenotype ; Plants/genetics/*metabolism ; Seedlings/physiology ; Seeds/physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) will influence all aspects of plant biology over coming decades. Many changes in wild species have already been well-documented as a result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, warming climate and changing precipitation regimes. A wealth of available data has allowed the use of meta-analyses to examine plant-climate interactions on more sophisticated levels than before. These analyses have revealed major differences in plant response among groups, e.g. with respect to functional traits, taxonomy, life-history and provenance. Interestingly, these meta-analyses have also exposed unexpected mismatches between theory, experimental, and observational studies.<br><br>SCOPE: We reviewed the literature on species' responses to ACC, finding &#x223c;42 % of 4000 species studied globally are plants (primarily terrestrial). We review impacts on phenology, distributions, ecophysiology, regeneration biology, plant-plant and plant-herbivore interactions, and the roles of plasticity and evolution. We focused on apparent deviations from expectation, and highlighted cases where more sophisticated analyses revealed that unexpected changes were, in fact, responses to ACC.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We found that conventionally expected responses are generally well-understood, and that it is the aberrant responses that are now yielding greater insight into current and possible future impacts of ACC. We argue that inconclusive, unexpected, or counter-intuitive results should be embraced in order to understand apparent disconnects between theory, prediction, and observation. We highlight prime examples from the collection of papers in this Special Issue, as well as general literature. We found use of plant functional groupings/traits had mixed success, but that some underutilized approaches, such as Grime's C/S/R strategies, when incorporated, have improved understanding of observed responses. Despite inherent difficulties, we highlight the need for ecologists to conduct community-level experiments in systems that replicate multiple aspects of ACC. Specifically, we call for development of coordinating experiments across networks of field sites, both natural and man-made.}, }
@article {pmid26555111, year = {2016}, author = {Latas, PJ and Stockdale Walden, HD and Bates, L and Marshall, S and Rohr, T and Whitehead, LR}, title = {Avioserpens in the Western Grebe (Aechmophorus occidentalis): A new Host and Geographic Record for a Dracunculoid Nematode and Implications of Migration and Climate Change.}, journal = {Journal of wildlife diseases}, volume = {52}, number = {1}, pages = {189-192}, doi = {10.7589/2015-06-169}, pmid = {26555111}, issn = {1943-3700}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Antiparasitic Agents/administration &amp; dosage ; Arizona ; Biopsy, Fine-Needle/veterinary ; Bird Diseases/drug therapy/*parasitology/surgery ; Birds ; Climate Change ; Dracunculoidea/classification/*physiology/ultrastructure ; Ivermectin/administration &amp; dosage ; Spirurida Infections/drug therapy/parasitology/surgery/*veterinary ; }, abstract = {We report a new host and geographic range for the dracunculoid nematode (Avioserpens sp.) in a Western Grebe (Aechmophorus occidentalis) from southern Arizona, US. This discovery underscores the importance of parasite discovery and identification in the wildlife rehabilitation setting. Climate change and weather events affect the migratory spread of unusual parasites.}, }
@article {pmid26555085, year = {2015}, author = {Kemp, DB and Eichenseer, K and Kiessling, W}, title = {Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {8890}, pmid = {26555085}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Recently observed rates of environmental change are typically much higher than those inferred for the geological past. At the same time, the magnitudes of ancient changes were often substantially greater than those established in recent history. The most pertinent disparity, however, between recent and geological rates is the timespan over which the rates are measured, which typically differ by several orders of magnitude. Here we show that rates of marked temperature changes inferred from proxy data in Earth history scale with measurement timespan as an approximate power law across nearly six orders of magnitude (10(2) to >10(7) years). This scaling reveals how climate signals measured in the geological record alias transient variability, even during the most pronounced climatic perturbations of the Phanerozoic. Our findings indicate that the true attainable pace of climate change on timescales of greatest societal relevance is underestimated in geological archives.}, }
@article {pmid26554877, year = {2016}, author = {Kendall, MS and Poti, M and Karnauskas, KB}, title = {Climate change and larval transport in the ocean: fractional effects from physical and physiological factors.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {1532-1547}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13159}, pmid = {26554877}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Islands ; *Larva ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pacific Ocean ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Changes in larval import, export, and self-seeding will affect the resilience of coral reef ecosystems. Climate change will alter the ocean currents that transport larvae and also increase sea surface temperatures (SST), hastening development, and shortening larval durations. Here, we use transport simulations to estimate future larval connectivity due to: (1) physical transport of larvae from altered circulation alone, and (2) the combined effects of altered currents plus physiological response to warming. Virtual larvae from islands throughout Micronesia were moved according to present-day and future ocean circulation models. The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) spanning 2004-2012 represented present-day currents. For future currents, we altered HYCOM using analysis from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model, version 1-Biogeochemistry, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. Based on the NCAR model, regional SST is estimated to rise 2.74 °C which corresponds to a ~17% decline in larval duration for some taxa. This reduction was the basis for a separate set of simulations. Results predict an increase in self-seeding in 100 years such that 62-76% of islands experienced increased self-seeding, there was an average domainwide increase of ~1-3% points in self-seeding, and increases of up to 25% points for several individual islands. When changed currents alone were considered, approximately half (i.e., random) of all island pairs experienced decreased connectivity but when reduced PLD was added as an effect, ~65% of connections were weakened. Orientation of archipelagos relative to currents determined the directional bias in connectivity changes. There was no universal relationship between climate change and connectivity applicable to all taxa and settings. Islands that presently export large numbers of larvae but that also maintain or enhance this role into the future should be the focus of conservation measures that promote long-term resilience of larval supply.}, }
@article {pmid26554678, year = {2015}, author = {Vineis, P and Fakhereddin, Z}, title = {[A look at the future: trades, climate change, and nutrition in Asia].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {39}, number = {5-6}, pages = {299-304}, pmid = {26554678}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate Change ; Commerce/*trends ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Diet/*trends ; Humans ; *Internationality ; Italy ; Public Health/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid26554007, year = {2015}, author = {Springer, KB and Manker, CR and Pigati, JS}, title = {Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {47}, pages = {14522-14526}, pmid = {26554007}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Groundwater ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated (14)C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.}, }
@article {pmid26553219, year = {2016}, author = {Every-Palmer, S and McBride, S and Berry, H and Menkes, DB}, title = {Climate change and psychiatry.}, journal = {The Australian and New Zealand journal of psychiatry}, volume = {50}, number = {1}, pages = {16-18}, doi = {10.1177/0004867415615946}, pmid = {26553219}, issn = {1440-1614}, mesh = {Anxiety/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Consumer Advocacy ; Depression/epidemiology ; Disasters/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Droughts/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fires/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Floods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Infrared Rays ; Mental Disorders/*epidemiology ; *Mental Health ; *Physician's Role ; *Psychiatry ; *Public Policy ; Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/epidemiology ; Stress Disorders, Traumatic, Acute/epidemiology ; Substance-Related Disorders/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid26553047, year = {2017}, author = {Schmid-Petri, H and Adam, S and Schmucki, I and Häussler, T}, title = {A changing climate of skepticism: The factors shaping climate change coverage in the US press.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {498-513}, doi = {10.1177/0963662515612276}, pmid = {26553047}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Journalism ; *Mass Media/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Public Opinion ; United States ; }, abstract = {Skepticism toward climate change has a long tradition in the United States. We focus on mass media as the conveyors of the image of climate change and ask: Is climate change skepticism still a characteristic of US print media coverage? If so, to what degree and in what form? And which factors might pave the way for skeptics entering mass media debates? We conducted a quantitative content analysis of US print media during one year (1 June 2012 to 31 May 2013). Our results show that the debate has changed: fundamental forms of climate change skepticism (such as denial of anthropogenic causes) have been abandoned in the coverage, being replaced by more subtle forms (such as the goal to avoid binding regulations). We find no evidence for the norm of journalistic balance, nor do our data support the idea that it is the conservative press that boosts skepticism.}, }
@article {pmid26552263, year = {2015}, author = {Pokallus, JW and Pauli, JN}, title = {Population dynamics of a northern-adapted mammal: disentangling the influence of predation and climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1546-1556}, doi = {10.1890/14-2214.1}, pmid = {26552263}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Mustelidae/physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Porcupines/*physiology ; *Predatory Behavior ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Community structure and interspecific interactions are particularly vulnerable to rapidly changing climatic regimes. Recent changes in both climate and vertebrate community assemblages have created a unique opportunity to examine the impacts of two dynamic forces on population regulation. We examined the effects of warming winter conditions and the reestablishment of a previously extirpated predator, the fisher (Martes pennanti), on regulatory mechanisms in a northern-adapted mammal, the porcupine (Erethizon dorsatum), along their southern range boundary. Using a long-term (17-year) capture-recapture data set, we (1) quantified the impacts of climate change and increased fisher predation on the survival of adult porcupines at their regional southern terminus, (2) assessed recruitment (via both adult fecundity and juvenile survival) of porcupines, and (3) modeled the relative importance of predation and winter conditions on the demography and population growth rate (λ). Severe winters and abundant predators interacted synergistically to reduce adult survivorship by as much as 44%, while expanding predator populations led to near reproductive failure among porcupines. Increasing predatory pressure, disruptions in this community module, and more frequent extreme winter weather events led to predicted extirpation within 50 years, whereas in the absence of predators, the population was viable. Our results provide a mechanistic understanding behind distributional shifts resulting from climate change and may be broadly relevant for predicting future distributional shifts in other northern-adapted mammalian species.}, }
@article {pmid26551357, year = {2015}, author = {Bloodhart, B and Maibach, E and Myers, T and Zhao, X}, title = {Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {e0141526}, pmid = {26551357}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; Educational Status ; Female ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Male ; Perception ; Politics ; *Public Opinion ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Television/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26549900, year = {2015}, author = {}, title = {Averting climate change's health effects in Fiji.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {93}, number = {11}, pages = {746-747}, doi = {10.2471/BLT.15.021115}, pmid = {26549900}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*methods ; Culicidae/virology ; Dengue/*epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control ; Fiji ; Health Promotion/*methods ; Health Status ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/virology ; }, abstract = {Pacific islanders face up to the dire health effects of global warming. Atasa Moceituba and Monique Tsang report.}, }
@article {pmid26545372, year = {2015}, author = {Liu, WC and Chan, WT}, title = {Assessment of the climate change impacts on fecal coliform contamination in a tidal estuarine system.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {187}, number = {12}, pages = {728}, pmid = {26545372}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Enterobacteriaceae ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Estuaries ; Feces/microbiology ; Hydrodynamics ; Rivers/microbiology ; Salinity ; Water ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Movements ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the key factors affecting the future microbiological water quality in rivers and tidal estuaries. A coupled 3D hydrodynamic and fecal coliform transport model was developed and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system for predicting the influences of climate change on microbiological water quality. The hydrodynamic and fecal coliform model was validated using observational salinity and fecal coliform distributions. According to the analyses of the statistical error, predictions of the salinity and the fecal coliform concentration from the model simulation quantitatively agreed with the observed data. The validated model was then applied to predict the fecal coliform contamination as a result of climate change, including the change of freshwater discharge and the sea level rise. We found that the reduction of freshwater discharge under climate change scenarios resulted in an increase in the fecal coliform concentration. The sea level rise would decrease fecal coliform distributions because both the water level and the water volume increased. A reduction in freshwater discharge has a negative impact on the fecal coliform concentration, whereas a rising sea level has a positive influence on the fecal coliform contamination. An appropriate strategy for the effective microbiological management in tidal estuaries is required to reveal the persistent trends of climate in the future.}, }
@article {pmid26536113, year = {2015}, author = {Blanchard, JL}, title = {Climate change: A rewired food web.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {527}, number = {7577}, pages = {173-174}, pmid = {26536113}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Food Chain ; }, }
@article {pmid26535569, year = {2015}, author = {Kašparová, E and Van de Putte, AP and Marshall, C and Janko, K}, title = {Lifestyle and Ice: The Relationship between Ecological Specialization and Response to Pleistocene Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {e0138766}, pmid = {26535569}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Cytochromes b/genetics ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Fishes/genetics/*physiology ; Genetic Loci ; Genetic Variation ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {Major climatic changes in the Pleistocene had significant effects on marine organisms and the environments in which they lived. The presence of divergent patterns of demographic history even among phylogenetically closely-related species sharing climatic changes raises questions as to the respective influence of species-specific traits on population structure. In this work we tested whether the lifestyle of Antarctic notothenioid benthic and pelagic fish species from the Southern Ocean influenced the concerted population response to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations. This was done by a comparative analysis of sequence variation at the cyt b and S7 loci in nine newly sequenced and four re-analysed species. We found that all species underwent more or less intensive changes in population size but we also found consistent differences between demographic histories of pelagic and benthic species. Contemporary pelagic populations are significantly more genetically diverse and bear traces of older demographic expansions than less diverse benthic species that show evidence of more recent population expansions. Our findings suggest that the lifestyles of different species have strong influences on their responses to the same environmental events. Our data, in conjunction with previous studies showing a constant diversification tempo of these species during the Pleistocene, support the hypothesis that Pleistocene glaciations had a smaller effect on pelagic species than on benthic species whose survival may have relied upon ephemeral refugia in shallow shelf waters. These findings suggest that the interaction between lifestyle and environmental changes should be considered in genetic analyses.}, }
@article {pmid26529306, year = {2015}, author = {Jackson, MM and Gergel, SE and Martin, K}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {e0142110}, pmid = {26529306}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {North America's coastal mountains are particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet harbour a number of endemic species. With little room "at the top" to track shifting climate envelopes, alpine species may be especially negatively affected by climate-induced habitat fragmentation. We ask how climate change will affect the total amount, mean patch size, and number of patches of suitable habitat for Vancouver Island White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura saxatilis; VIWTP), a threatened, endemic alpine bird. Using a Random Forest model and a unique dataset consisting of citizen science observations combined with field surveys, we predict the distribution and configuration of potential suitable summer habitat for VIWTP under baseline and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) climates using three general circulation models and two greenhouse gas scenarios. VIWTP summer habitat is predicted to decline by an average of 25%, 44%, and 56% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, under the low greenhouse gas scenario and 27%, 59%, and 74% under the high scenario. Habitat patches are predicted to become fragmented, with a 52-79% reduction in mean patch size. The average elevation of suitable habitat patches is expected to increase, reflecting a loss of patches at lower elevations. Thus ptarmigan are in danger of being "squeezed off the mountain", as their remaining suitable habitat will be increasingly confined to mountaintops in the center of the island. The extent to which ptarmigan will be able to persist in increasingly fragmented habitat is unclear. Much will depend on their ability to move throughout a more heterogeneous landscape, utilize smaller breeding areas, and survive increasingly variable climate extremes. Our results emphasize the importance of continued monitoring and protection for high elevation specialist species, and suggest that White-tailed Ptarmigan should be considered an indicator species for alpine ecosystems in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26528996, year = {2015}, author = {Yi, G and Zhang, T}, title = {Delayed Response of Lake Area Change to Climate Change in Siling Co Lake, Tibetan Plateau, from 2003 to 2013.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {13886-13900}, pmid = {26528996}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Climatic Processes ; *Cold Climate ; Lakes/*chemistry ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau is a key area for research on global environmental changes. During the past 50 years, the climate in the Siling Co lake area has become continuously warmer and wetter, which may have further caused the increase in Siling Co lake area. Based on the Siling Co lake area (2003 to 2013) and climate data acquired from the Xainza and Baingoin meteorological stations (covering 1966 to 2013), we analyzed the delayed responses of lake area changes to climate changes through grey relational analysis. The following results were obtained: (1) The Siling Co lake area exhibited a rapid expansion trend from 2003 to 2013. The lake area increased to 2318 km[2], with a growth ratio of 14.6% and an annual growth rate of 26.84 km[2]·year(-1); (2) The rate of air temperature increase was different in the different seasons. The rate in the cold season was about 0.41 °C per ten years and 0.32 °C in hot season. Precipitation evidently increased, with a change rate of 17.70 mm per ten years in the hot season and a slight increase with a change rate of 2.36 mm per ten years in the cold season. Pan evaporation exhibited evidently decreasing trends in both the hot and cold seasons, with rates of -33.35 and -14.84 mm per ten years, respectively; (3) An evident delayed response of lake area change to climate change is observed, with a delay time of approximately one to two years.}, }
@article {pmid26522964, year = {2015}, author = {Robbins, A}, title = {Health consequences of climate change interventions.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {386}, number = {10006}, pages = {1819}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00549-8}, pmid = {26522964}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; *Global Health ; Global Warming ; Health ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid26522165, year = {2015}, author = {Elhakeem, A and Elshorbagy, W}, title = {Hydrodynamic evaluation of long term impacts of climate change and coastal effluents in the Arabian Gulf.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {101}, number = {2}, pages = {667-685}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.10.032}, pmid = {26522165}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Hydrodynamics ; Indian Ocean ; *Models, Theoretical ; Salinity ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {A comprehensive basin wide hydrodynamic evaluation has been carried out to assess the long term impacts of climate change and coastal effluents on the salinity and seawater temperature of the Arabian Gulf (AG) using Delft3D-Flow model. The long term impacts of climate change scenarios A2 and B1 of the IPCC-AR4 on the AG hydrodynamics were evaluated. Using the current capacity and production rates of coastal desalination, power, and refinery plants, two projection scenarios until the year 2080 with 30 year intervals were developed namely the realistic and the optimistic discharge scenarios. Simulations of the individual climate change scenarios ascertained overall increase of the AG salinity and temperature and decrease of precipitation. The changes varied spatially with different scenarios as per the depth, proximity to exchange with ocean water, flushing, vertical mixing, and flow restriction. The individual tested scenarios of coastal projected discharges showed significant effects but within 10-20 km from the outfalls.}, }
@article {pmid26522161, year = {2015}, author = {Tseng, WW and Hsu, SH and Chen, CC}, title = {Estimating the willingness to pay to protect coral reefs from potential damage caused by climate change--The evidence from Taiwan.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {101}, number = {2}, pages = {556-565}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.10.058}, pmid = {26522161}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Taiwan ; }, abstract = {Coral reefs constitute the most biologically productive and diverse ecosystem, and provide various goods and services including those related to fisheries, marine tourism, coastal protection, and medicine. However, they are sensitive to climate change and rising temperatures. Taiwan is located in the central part of the world's distribution of coral reefs and has about one third of the coral species in the world. This study estimates the welfare losses associated with the potential damage to coral reefs in Taiwan caused by climate change. The contingent valuation method adopted includes a pre-survey, a face-to-face formal survey, and photo illustrations used to obtain reliable data. Average annual personal willingness to pay is found to be around US$35.75 resulting in a total annual willingness to pay of around US$0.43 billion. These high values demonstrate that coral reefs in Taiwan deserve to be well preserved, which would require a dedicated agency and ocean reserves.}, }
@article {pmid26519569, year = {2016}, author = {Pumo, D and Caracciolo, D and Viola, F and Noto, LV}, title = {Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {542}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {76-92}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.10.109}, pmid = {26519569}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Recent years have been witnessing an increasing interest on global climate change and, although we are only at the first stage of the projected trends, some signals of climate alteration are already visible. Climate change encompasses modifications in the characteristics of several interrelated climate variables, and unavoidably produces relevant effects on almost all the natural processes related to the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate variations on the streamflow regime of small river basins in Mediterranean, seasonally dry, regions. The paper provides a quantitative evaluation of potential modifications in the flow duration curves (FDCs) and in the partitioning between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, induced by climate changes projected over the next century in different basins, also exploring the role exerted by different soil–vegetation compositions. To this aim, it is used a recent hydrological model, which is calibrated at five Sicilian (Italy) basins using a past period with available streamflow observations. The model is then forced by daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series representative of the current climatic conditions and two future temporal horizons, referring to the time windows 2045–2065 and 2081–2100. Future climatic series are generated by a weather generator, based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The results show how the projected climatic modifications are differently reflected in the hydrological response of the selected basins, implying, in general, a sensible downshift of the FDCs, with a significant reduction in the mean annual streamflow, and substantial alterations in streamflow seasonality and in the relative importance of the surface and subsurface components. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers could have important implications for the water resource management and for the sustainability of many riparian Mediterranean ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid26519568, year = {2016}, author = {Liu, Z and Wimberly, MC}, title = {Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {542}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {65-75}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.10.093}, pmid = {26519568}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales.}, }
@article {pmid26515954, year = {2015}, author = {Zhang, T and Zhang, Y and Xu, M and Zhu, J and Wimberly, MC and Yu, G and Niu, S and Xi, Y and Zhang, X and Wang, J}, title = {Light-intensity grazing improves alpine meadow productivity and adaption to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {15949}, pmid = {26515954}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Carbon Cycle/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Grassland ; Photosynthesis ; Soil/chemistry ; Temperature ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {To explore grazing effects on carbon fluxes in alpine meadow ecosystems, we used a paired eddy-covariance (EC) system to measure carbon fluxes in adjacent fenced (FM) and grazed (GM) meadows on the Tibetan plateau. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) were greater at GM than FM for the first two years of fencing. In the third year, the productivity at FM increased to a level similar to the GM site. The higher productivity at GM was mainly caused by its higher photosynthetic capacity. Grazing exclusion did not increase carbon sequestration capacity for this alpine grassland system. The higher optimal photosynthetic temperature and the weakened ecosystem response to climatic factors at GM may help to facilitate the adaption of alpine meadow ecosystems to changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid26514110, year = {2015}, author = {Zhang, K and Kimball, JS and Nemani, RR and Running, SW and Hong, Y and Gourley, JJ and Yu, Z}, title = {Vegetation Greening and Climate Change Promote Multidecadal Rises of Global Land Evapotranspiration.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {15956}, pmid = {26514110}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Droughts ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Water/chemistry/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Recent studies showed that anomalous dry conditions and limited moisture supply roughly between 1998 and 2008, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, led to reduced vegetation productivity and ceased growth in land evapotranspiration (ET). However, natural variability of Earth's climate system can degrade capabilities for identifying climate trends. Here we produced a long-term (1982-2013) remote sensing based land ET record and investigated multidecadal changes in global ET and underlying causes. The ET record shows a significant upward global trend of 0.88 mm yr(-2) (P < 0.001) over the 32-year period, mainly driven by vegetation greening (0.018% per year; P < 0.001) and rising atmosphere moisture demand (0.75 mm yr(-2); P = 0.016). Our results indicate that reduced ET growth between 1998 and 2008 was an episodic phenomenon, with subsequent recovery of the ET growth rate after 2008. Terrestrial precipitation also shows a positive trend of 0.66 mm yr(-2) (P = 0.08) over the same period consistent with expected water cycle intensification, but this trend is lower than coincident increases in evaporative demand and ET, implying a possibility of cumulative water supply constraint to ET. Continuation of these trends will likely exacerbate regional drought-induced disturbances, especially during regional dry climate phases associated with strong El Niño events.}, }
@article {pmid26513590, year = {2015}, author = {, }, title = {Correction: Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {e0142024}, pmid = {26513590}, issn = {1932-6203}, }
@article {pmid26512680, year = {2015}, author = {Huynen, MM and Martens, P}, title = {Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {13295-13320}, pmid = {26512680}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature/*adverse effects ; Forecasting ; Health Impact Assessment ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Mortality ; Netherlands ; Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981-2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature-mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI'14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050-accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend-show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.}, }
@article {pmid26510009, year = {2015}, author = {Oczkowski, A and McKinney, R and Ayvazian, S and Hanson, A and Wigand, C and Markham, E}, title = {Preliminary Evidence for the Amplification of Global Warming in Shallow, Intertidal Estuarine Waters.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {e0141529}, pmid = {26510009}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Estuaries ; *Global Warming ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Over the past 50 years, mean annual water temperature in northeastern U.S. estuaries has increased by approximately 1.2°C, with most of the warming recorded in the winter and early spring. A recent survey and synthesis of data from four locations in Southern Rhode Island has led us to hypothesize that this warming may be amplified in the shallow (<1 m), nearshore portions of these estuaries. While intertidal areas are not typically selected as locations for long-term monitoring, we compiled data from published literature, theses, and reports that suggest that enhanced warming may be occurring, perhaps at rates three times higher than deeper estuarine waters. Warmer spring waters may be one of the factors influencing biota residing in intertidal regions both in general as well as at our specific sites. We observed greater abundance of fish, and size of Menidia sp., in recent (2010-2012) seine surveys compared to similar collections in 1962. While any linkages are speculative and data are preliminary, taken together they suggest that shallow intertidal portions of estuaries may be important places to look for the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26509270, year = {2015}, author = {Fortini, LB and Vorsino, AE and Amidon, FA and Paxton, EH and Jacobi, JD}, title = {Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need for 21st Century Conservation Options [corrected].}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {e0140389}, pmid = {26509270}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forests ; Hawaii ; Models, Theoretical ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.}, }
@article {pmid26508626, year = {2015}, author = {Morueta-Holme, N and Engemann, K and Sandoval-Acuña, P and Jonas, JD and Segnitz, RM and Svenning, JC}, title = {Reply to Feeley and Rehm: Land-use intensification increases risk of species losses from climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {45}, pages = {E6085}, pmid = {26508626}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid26507684, year = {2016}, author = {Anderson, OR}, title = {The Role of Heterotrophic Microbial Communities in Estuarine C Budgets and the Biogeochemical C Cycle with Implications for Global Warming: Research Opportunities and Challenges.}, journal = {The Journal of eukaryotic microbiology}, volume = {63}, number = {3}, pages = {394-409}, doi = {10.1111/jeu.12279}, pmid = {26507684}, issn = {1550-7408}, mesh = {Animals ; Bacteria/metabolism ; Biomass ; *Carbon Cycle ; Climate Change ; *Estuaries ; Eukaryota/metabolism ; Food Chain ; *Global Warming ; *Microbial Consortia/physiology ; Research/organization &amp; administration/*statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Zooplankton/classification/genetics/physiology ; }, abstract = {Estuaries are among the most productive and economically important marine ecosystems at the land-ocean interface and contribute significantly to exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere. Estuarine microbial communities are major links in the biogeochemical C cycle and flow of C in food webs from primary producers to higher consumers. Considerable attention has been given to bacteria and autotrophic eukaryotes in estuarine ecosystems, but less research has been devoted to the role of heterotrophic eukaryotic microbes. Current research is reviewed here on the role of heterotrophic eukaryotic microbes in C biogeochemistry and ecology of estuaries, with particular attention to C budgets, trophodynamics, and the metabolic fate of C in microbial communities. Some attention is given to the importance of these processes in climate change and global warming, especially in relation to sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 , while also documenting the current paucity of research on the role of eukaryotic microbes that contribute to this larger question of C biogeochemistry and the environment. Some recommendations are made for future directions of research and opportunities of applying newer technologies and analytical approaches to a more refined analysis of the role of C in estuarine microbial community processes and the biogeochemical C cycle.}, }
@article {pmid26505637, year = {2015}, author = {Bunn, C and Läderach, P and Pérez Jimenez, JG and Montagnon, C and Schilling, T}, title = {Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {e0140490}, pmid = {26505637}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Coffea/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; *Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.}, }
@article {pmid26504134, year = {2015}, author = {Ahdoot, S and Pacheco, SE and , }, title = {Global Climate Change and Children's Health.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {136}, number = {5}, pages = {e1468-84}, doi = {10.1542/peds.2015-3233}, pmid = {26504134}, issn = {1098-4275}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.}, }
@article {pmid26504130, year = {2015}, author = {, }, title = {Global Climate Change and Children's Health.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {136}, number = {5}, pages = {992-997}, doi = {10.1542/peds.2015-3232}, pmid = {26504130}, issn = {1098-4275}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge.}, }
@article {pmid26503044, year = {2015}, author = {Sterner, T}, title = {Economics: Higher costs of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {527}, number = {7577}, pages = {177-178}, doi = {10.1038/nature15643}, pmid = {26503044}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate ; Global Warming/*economics ; *Internationality ; *Models, Economic ; *Nonlinear Dynamics ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid26501958, year = {2015}, author = {Bestion, E and Teyssier, A and Richard, M and Clobert, J and Cote, J}, title = {Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e1002281}, pmid = {26501958}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Clutch Size ; *Extinction, Biological ; Female ; France ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Life Cycle Stages ; Lizards/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Male ; *Models, Biological ; Reproduction ; Risk ; Statistics as Topic ; *Stress, Physiological ; Survival Analysis ; }, abstract = {Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.}, }
@article {pmid26501301, year = {2015}, author = {Colagiuri, R and Boylan, S and Morrice, E}, title = {Research Priorities for NCD Prevention and Climate Change: An International Delphi Survey.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {12941-12957}, pmid = {26501301}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disease ; Humans ; *Preventive Health Services ; *Public Health Practice ; *Research ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Universities ; }, abstract = {Climate change and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are arguably the greatest global challenges of the 21st Century. However, the confluence between them remains under-examined and there is little evidence of a comprehensive, systematic approach to identifying research priorities to mitigate their joint impact. Consequently, we: (i) convened a workshop of academics (n = 25) from the Worldwide Universities Network to identify priority areas at the interface between NCDs and climate change; (ii) conducted a Delphi survey of international opinion leaders in public health and relevant other disciplines; and (iii) convened an expert panel to review and advise on final priorities. Three research areas (water security; transport; conceptualising NCD harms to support policy formation) were listed among the top 10 priorities by >90% of Delphi respondents, and ranked among the top 12 priorities by >60% of respondents who ranked the order of priority. A fourth area (reducing the carbon footprint of cities) was ranked highest by the same >60% of respondents. Our results are consistent with existing frameworks on health and climate change, and extends them by focusing specifically on NCDs. Researching these priorities could progress understanding of climate change and NCDs, and inform global and national policy decisions for mitigating associated harms.}, }
@article {pmid26496851, year = {2015}, author = {Nadal, M and Marquès, M and Mari, M and Domingo, JL}, title = {Climate change and environmental concentrations of POPs: A review.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {143}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {177-185}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2015.10.012}, pmid = {26496851}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Benzofurans/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Dibenzofurans, Polychlorinated ; *Environmental Monitoring/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; Organic Chemicals/*analysis ; Pesticides/analysis ; Polychlorinated Biphenyls/analysis ; Polychlorinated Dibenzodioxins/analogs &amp; derivatives/analysis ; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/analysis ; }, abstract = {In recent years, the climate change impact on the concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has become a topic of notable concern. Changes in environmental conditions such as the increase of the average temperature, or the UV-B radiation, are likely to influence the fate and behavior of POPs, ultimately affecting human exposure. The state of the art of the impact of climate change on environmental concentrations of POPs, as well as on human health risks, is here reviewed. Research gaps are also identified, while future studies are suggested. Climate change and POPs are a hot issue, for which wide attention should be paid not only by scientists, but also and mainly by policy makers. Most studies reported in the scientific literature are focused on legacy POPs, mainly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. However, the number of investigations aimed at estimating the impact of climate change on the environmental levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is scarce, despite of the fact that exposure to PAHs and photodegradation byproducts may result in adverse health effects. Furthermore, no data on emerging POPs are currently available in the scientific literature. In consequence, an intensification of studies to identify and mitigate the indirect effects of the climate change on POP fate is needed to minimize the human health impact. Furthermore, being this a global problem, interactions between climate change and POPs must be addressed from an international perspective.}, }
@article {pmid26496127, year = {2015}, author = {Mosedale, JR and Wilson, RJ and Maclean, IM}, title = {Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {e0141218}, pmid = {26496127}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Flowers/*physiology ; *Models, Statistical ; Seasons ; Uncertainty ; United Kingdom ; Vitis/*physiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.}, }
@article {pmid26495643, year = {2015}, author = {Zhou, Y and Li, Y and Wang, XM}, title = {[Suitable Habitats Prediction of Original Plants of Rhei Radix et Rhizoma Under Climate Change].}, journal = {Zhong yao cai = Zhongyaocai = Journal of Chinese medicinal materials}, volume = {38}, number = {3}, pages = {467-472}, pmid = {26495643}, issn = {1001-4454}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plant Roots ; Plants, Medicinal/growth &amp; development ; Rheum/*growth &amp; development ; Rhizome ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To predict the distribution patterns of the original plants of Rhei Radix et Rhizoma current and in future in China under climate change.<br><br>METHODS: A maximum entropy modeling and variety of climate change scenarios were employed to predict its current and future distribution ranges in China.<br><br>RESULTS: The resultant models exhibited excellent predictive power. The current suitable habitats for original plants of Rhei Radix et Rhizoma totaled 84. 20 x 10(4) km2 accounting for 8. 77% of the total area of China; 57. 05% of its current suitable habitats(i. e. low impact areas) would be relatively lowly impacted by the climate change. Compared with its current distribution pattern,its distribution ranges during 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, 2050, 2060s, 2070s and 2080s would be shrunk to some extent. However, the moderately suitable area would be expanded to a certain degree.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change has a negative impact on the total area and the habitat suitability for the original plants of Rhei Radix et Rhizoma.}, }
@article {pmid26492262, year = {2015}, author = {Lin, SP}, title = {Raising Public Awareness: The Role of the Household Sector in Mitigating Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {13162-13178}, pmid = {26492262}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; *Awareness ; Choice Behavior ; *Climate Change ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Female ; *Household Articles/economics ; Humans ; Intention ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Perception ; Taiwan ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {In addition to greenhouse gas emissions from the industrial, transportation and commercial sectors, emissions from the household sector also contribute to global warming. By examining residents of Taiwan (N = 236), this study aims to reveal the factors that influence households' intention to purchase energy-efficient appliances. The assessment in this study is based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB), and perceived benefit or cost (BOC) is introduced as an independent variable in the proposed efficiency action toward climate change (ECC) model. According to structural equation modeling, most of the indicators presented a good fit to the corresponding ECC model constructs. The analysis indicated that BOC is a good complementary variable to the TPB, as the ECC model explained 61.9% of the variation in intention to purchase energy-efficient appliances, which was higher than that explained by the TPB (58.4%). This result indicates that the ECC model is superior to the TPB. Thus, the strategy of promoting energy-efficient appliances in the household sector should emphasize global warming and include the concept of BOC.}, }
@article {pmid26491466, year = {2015}, author = {Kayo, C and Tsunetsugu, Y and Tonosaki, M}, title = {Climate change mitigation effect of harvested wood products in regions of Japan.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {24}, pmid = {26491466}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Harvested wood products (HWPs) mitigate climate change through carbon storage, material substitution, and energy substitution. We construct a model to assess the overall climate change mitigation effect (comprising the carbon storage, material substitution, and energy substitution effects) resulting from HWPs in regions of Japan. The model allows for projections to 2050 based on future scenarios relating to the domestic forestry industry, HWP use, and energy use.<br><br>RESULTS: Using the production approach, a nationwide maximum figure of 2.9&#xa0;MtC&#xa0;year[-1] for the HWP carbon storage effect is determined for 2030. The maximum nationwide material substitution effect is 2.9&#xa0;MtC&#xa0;year[-1] in 2050. For the energy substitution effect, a nationwide maximum projection of 4.3&#xa0;MtC&#xa0;year[-1] in 2050 is established, with at least 50&#xa0;% of this figure derived from east and west Japan, where a large volume of logging residue is generated. For the overall climate change mitigation effect, a nationwide maximum projection of 8.4&#xa0;MtC&#xa0;year[-1] in 2050 is established, equivalent to 2.4&#xa0;% of Japan's current carbon dioxide emissions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: When domestic roundwood production and HWP usage is promoted, an overall climate change mitigation effect is consistently expected to be attributable to HWPs until 2050. A significant factor in obtaining the material substitution effect will be substituting non-wooden buildings with wooden ones. The policy of promoting the use of logging residue will have a significant impact on the energy substitution effect. An important future study is an integrated investigation of the climate change mitigation effect for both HWPs and forests.}, }
@article {pmid26487088, year = {2015}, author = {Yoon, JH and Wang, SS and Gillies, RR and Kravitz, B and Hipps, L and Rasch, PJ}, title = {Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {8657}, pmid = {26487088}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Since the winter of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.}, }
@article {pmid26485964, year = {2015}, author = {Snyder, CD and Hitt, NP and Young, JA}, title = {Accounting for groundwater in stream fish thermal habitat responses to climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {25}, number = {5}, pages = {1397-1419}, doi = {10.1890/14-1354.1}, pmid = {26485964}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Groundwater ; *Models, Biological ; *Rivers ; *Temperature ; Trout/*physiology ; Virginia ; }, abstract = {Forecasting climate change effects on aquatic fauna and their habitat requires an understanding of how water temperature responds to changing air temperature (i.e., thermal sensitivity). Previous efforts to forecast climate effects on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat have generally assumed uniform air-water temperature relationships over large areas that cannot account for groundwater inputs and other processes that operate at finer spatial scales. We developed regression models that accounted for groundwater influences on thermal sensitivity from measured air-water temperature relationships within forested watersheds in eastern North America (Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA, 78 sites in nine watersheds). We used these reach-scale models to forecast climate change effects on stream temperature and brook trout thermal habitat, and compared our results to previous forecasts based upon large-scale models. Observed stream temperatures were generally less sensitive to air temperature than previously assumed, and we attribute this to the moderating effect of shallow groundwater inputs. Predicted groundwater temperatures from air-water regression models corresponded well to observed groundwater temperatures elsewhere in the study area. Predictions of brook trout future habitat loss derived from our fine-grained models. were far less pessimistic than those from prior models developed at coarser spatial resolutions. However, our models also revealed spatial variation in thermal sensitivity within and among catchments resulting in a patchy distribution of thermally suitable habitat. Habitat fragmentation due to thermal barriers therefore may have an increasingly important role for trout population viability in headwater streams. Our results demonstrate that simple adjustments to air-water temperature regression models can provide a powerful and cost-effective approach for predicting future stream temperatures while accounting for effects of groundwater.}, }
@article {pmid26484973, year = {2015}, author = {Kleinman, MT and Bachman, JD and Feldman, HJ and McCabe, D and West, JJ and Fiore, AF}, title = {Connecting air quality and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {65}, number = {11}, pages = {1283-1291}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2015.1095599}, pmid = {26484973}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid26483475, year = {2015}, author = {Xie, Y and Wang, X and Silander, JA}, title = {Deciduous forest responses to temperature, precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {44}, pages = {13585-13590}, pmid = {26483475}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/methods/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Forests ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; New England ; *Rain ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees/classification/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Changes in spring and autumn phenology of temperate plants in recent decades have become iconic bio-indicators of rapid climate change. These changes have substantial ecological and economic impacts. However, autumn phenology remains surprisingly little studied. Although the effects of unfavorable environmental conditions (e.g., frost, heat, wetness, and drought) on autumn phenology have been observed for over 60 y, how these factors interact to influence autumn phenological events remain poorly understood. Using remotely sensed phenology data from 2001 to 2012, this study identified and quantified significant effects of a suite of environmental factors on the timing of fall dormancy of deciduous forest communities in New England, United States. Cold, frost, and wet conditions, and high heat-stress tended to induce earlier dormancy of deciduous forests, whereas moderate heat- and drought-stress delayed dormancy. Deciduous forests in two eco-regions showed contrasting, nonlinear responses to variation in these explanatory factors. Based on future climate projection over two periods (2041-2050 and 2090-2099), later dormancy dates were predicted in northern areas. However, in coastal areas earlier dormancy dates were predicted. Our models suggest that besides warming in climate change, changes in frost and moisture conditions as well as extreme weather events (e.g., drought- and heat-stress, and flooding), should also be considered in future predictions of autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forests. This study improves our understanding of how multiple environmental variables interact to affect autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forest ecosystems, and points the way to building more mechanistic and predictive models.}, }
@article {pmid26479240, year = {2015}, author = {Shields, S and Orme-Evans, G}, title = {The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {361-394}, pmid = {26479240}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and details the associated problems. Alternative strategies are also identified as possible solutions for animal welfare and climate change, and it is suggested that more attention be focused on these types of options when allocating resources, researching mitigation strategies, and making policy decisions on reducing emissions from animal agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid26479830, year = {2016}, author = {Wu, X and Lu, Y and Zhou, S and Chen, L and Xu, B}, title = {Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {86}, number = {}, pages = {14-23}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.007}, pmid = {26479830}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/microbiology/parasitology/transmission ; Disease Vectors ; Humans ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26478613, year = {2015}, author = {Pega, F and Shaw, C and Rasanathan, K and Yablonski, J and Kawachi, I and Hales, S}, title = {Climate change, cash transfers and health.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {93}, number = {8}, pages = {559-565}, pmid = {26478613}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; Developing Countries ; Gift Giving ; Health Behavior ; Health Policy/*economics ; Health Promotion/*economics/*methods ; Health Services Accessibility ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The forecast consequences of climate change on human health are profound, especially in low- and middle-income countries and among the most disadvantaged populations. Innovative policy tools are needed to address the adverse health effects of climate change. Cash transfers are established policy tools for protecting population health before, during and after climate-related disasters. For example, the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Programme provides cash transfers to reduce food insecurity resulting from droughts. We propose extending cash transfer interventions to more proactive measures to improve health in the context of climate change. We identify promising cash transfer schemes that could be used to prevent the adverse health consequences of climatic hazards. Cash transfers for using emission-free, active modes of transport - e.g. cash for cycling to work - could prevent future adverse health consequences by contributing to climate change mitigation and, at the same time, improving current population health. Another example is cash transfers provided to communities that decide to move to areas in which their lives and health are not threatened by climatic disasters. More research on such interventions is needed to ensure that they are effective, ethical, equitable and cost-effective.}, }
@article {pmid26476058, year = {2016}, author = {Kaspersen, BS and Christensen, TB and Fredenslund, AM and Møller, HB and Butts, MB and Jensen, NH and Kjaer, T}, title = {Linking climate change mitigation and coastal eutrophication management through biogas technology: Evidence from a new Danish bioenergy concept.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {541}, number = {}, pages = {1124-1131}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.10.015}, pmid = {26476058}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The interest in sustainable bioenergy solutions has gained great importance in Europe due to the need to reduce GHG emissions and to meet environmental policy targets, not least for the protection of groundwater and surface water quality. In the Municipality of Solrød in Denmark, a novel bioenergy concept for anaerobic co-digestion of food industry residues, manure and beach-cast seaweed has been developed and tested in order to quantify the potential for synergies between climate change mitigation and coastal eutrophication management in the Køge Bay catchment. The biogas plant, currently under construction, was designed to handle an annual input of up to 200,000 t of biomass based on four main fractions: pectin wastes, carrageenan wastes, manure and beach-cast seaweed. This paper describes how this bioenergy concept can contribute to strengthening the linkages between climate change mitigation strategies and Water Framework Directive (WFD) action planning. Our assessments of the projected biogas plant indicate an annual reduction of GHG emissions of approx. 40,000 t CO2 equivalents, corresponding to approx. 1/3 of current total GHG emissions in the Municipality of Solrød. In addition, nitrogen and phosphorous loads to Køge Bay are estimated to be reduced by approx. 63 t yr.(-1) and 9 tyr.(-1), respectively, contributing to the achievement of more than 70% of the nutrient reduction target set for Køge Bay in the first WFD river basin management plan. This study shows that anaerobic co-digestion of the specific food industry residues, pig manure and beach-cast seaweed is feasible and that there is a very significant, cost-effective GHG and nutrient loading mitigation potential for this bioenergy concept. Our research demonstrates how an integrated planning process where considerations about the total environment are integrated into the design and decision processes can support the development of this kind of holistic bioenergy solutions.}, }
@article {pmid26474923, year = {2016}, author = {Wingfield, JC and Perfito, N and Calisi, R and Bentley, G and Ubuka, T and Mukai, M and O'Brien, S and Tsutsui, K}, title = {Putting the brakes on reproduction: Implications for conservation, global climate change and biomedicine.}, journal = {General and comparative endocrinology}, volume = {227}, number = {}, pages = {16-26}, doi = {10.1016/j.ygcen.2015.10.007}, pmid = {26474923}, issn = {1095-6840}, support = {R01 MH65974-01/MH/NIMH NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Avian Proteins/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Estrus/physiology ; Female ; Gonads/metabolism ; Hypothalamic Hormones/*metabolism ; Male ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Seasons ; Songbirds/*physiology ; Spermatogenesis/physiology ; }, abstract = {Seasonal breeding is widespread in vertebrates and involves sequential development of the gonads, onset of breeding activities (e.g. cycling in females) and then termination resulting in regression of the reproductive system. Whereas males generally show complete spermatogenesis prior to and after onset of breeding, females of many vertebrate species show only partial ovarian development and may delay onset of cycling (e.g. estrous), yolk deposition or germinal vesicle breakdown until conditions conducive for ovulation and onset of breeding are favorable. Regulation of this "brake" on the onset of breeding remains relatively unknown, but could have profound implications for conservation efforts and for "mismatches" of breeding in relation to global climate change. Using avian models it is proposed that a brain peptide, gonadotropin-inhibitory hormone (GnIH), may be the brake to prevent onset of breeding in females. Evidence to date suggests that although GnIH may be involved in the regulation of gonadal development and regression, it plays more regulatory roles in the process of final ovarian development leading to ovulation, transitions from sexual to parental behavior and suppression of reproductive function by environmental stress. Accumulating experimental evidence strongly suggests that GnIH inhibits actions of gonadotropin-releasing hormones on behavior (central effects), gonadotropin secretion (central and hypophysiotropic effects), and has direct actions in the gonad to inhibit steroidogenesis. Thus, actual onset of breeding activities leading to ovulation may involve environmental cues releasing an inhibition (brake) on the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonad axis.}, }
@article {pmid26474765, year = {2016}, author = {Melillo, JM and Lu, X and Kicklighter, DW and Reilly, JM and Cai, Y and Sokolov, AP}, title = {Protected areas' role in climate-change mitigation.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {45}, number = {2}, pages = {133-145}, pmid = {26474765}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Globally, 15.5 million km(2) of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km(2) of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.}, }
@article {pmid26473907, year = {2015}, author = {Elgendi, M and Norton, I and Brearley, M and Fletcher, RR and Abbott, D and Lovell, NH and Schuurmans, D}, title = {Towards Investigating Global Warming Impact on Human Health Using Derivatives of Photoplethysmogram Signals.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {12776-12791}, pmid = {26473907}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Healthy Volunteers ; *Heart Rate ; Heat Stress Disorders/*diagnosis ; Humans ; Male ; *Photoplethysmography ; }, abstract = {Recent clinical studies show that the contour of the photoplethysmogram (PPG) wave contains valuable information for characterizing cardiovascular activity. However, analyzing the PPG wave contour is difficult; therefore, researchers have applied first or higher order derivatives to emphasize and conveniently quantify subtle changes in the filtered PPG contour. Our hypothesis is that analyzing the whole PPG recording rather than each PPG wave contour or on a beat-by-beat basis can detect heat-stressed subjects and that, consequently, we will be able to investigate the impact of global warming on human health. Here, we explore the most suitable derivative order for heat stress assessment based on the energy and entropy of the whole PPG recording. The results of our study indicate that the use Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 7 12777 of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal shows promising results in detecting heat stress using 20-second recordings, with an overall accuracy of 71.6%. Moreover, the combination of the entropy of the seventh derivative of the filtered PPG signal with the root mean square of successive differences, or RMSSD (a traditional heart rate variability index of heat stress), improved the detection of heat stress to 88.9% accuracy.}, }
@article {pmid26471012, year = {2015}, author = {Andersen, LK and Davis, MD}, title = {The effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on skin and skin-related diseases: a message from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Task Force.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {54}, number = {12}, pages = {1343-1351}, doi = {10.1111/ijd.12941}, pmid = {26471012}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Advisory Committees ; Climate Change ; Dermatology ; *El Nino-Southern Oscillation/adverse effects ; Humans ; Skin Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; Societies, Medical ; }, abstract = {The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a complex climate phenomenon occurring in the Pacific Ocean at intervals of 2-7 years. The term refers to fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (El Niño [the warm phase of ENSO] and La Niña [the cool phase of ENSO]) and in atmospheric pressure across the Pacific basin (Southern Oscillation). This weather pattern is attributed with causing climate change in certain parts of the world and is associated with disease outbreaks. The question of how ENSO affects skin and skin-related disease is relatively unanswered. We aimed to review the literature describing the effects of this complex weather pattern on skin. El Niño has been associated with increases in the occurrence of actinic keratosis, tinea, pityriasis versicolor, miliaria, folliculitis, rosacea, dermatitis by Paederus irritans and Paederus sabaeus, and certain vector-borne and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, leishmaniasis, Chagas' disease, Barmah Forest virus, and leptospirosis, and with decreases in the occurrence of dermatitis, scabies, psoriasis, and papular urticaria. La Niña has been associated with increases in the occurrence of varicella, hand, foot, and mouth disease, and Ross River virus (in certain areas), and decreases in viral warts and leishmaniasis. Reports on the effects of ENSO on skin and skin-related disease are limited, and more studies could be helpful in the future.}, }
@article {pmid26470629, year = {2016}, author = {Wu, J}, title = {The distributions of Chinese yak breeds in response to climate change over the past 50 years.}, journal = {Animal science journal = Nihon chikusan Gakkaiho}, volume = {87}, number = {7}, pages = {947-958}, doi = {10.1111/asj.12526}, pmid = {26470629}, issn = {1740-0929}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Breeding/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Cattle/*physiology ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The effects of prior climate change on yak breed distributions are uncertain. Here, we measured changes in the distributions of 12 yak breeds over the past 50 years in China and examined whether the changes could be attributed to climate change. Long-term records of yak breed distribution, grey relational analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques and attribution methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of several yak breeds have changed in multiple directions, mainly shifting northward or westward, and most of these changes are related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past years, the suitable range and the distribution centers of certain yak breeds have changed with fluctuation and have mainly shifted northward, eastward or southward. The consistency of observed versus predicted changes in distribution boundaries or distribution centers is higher for certain yak breeds. Changes in the eastern distribution boundary of two yak breeds over the past 50 years can be attributed to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26470453, year = {2015}, author = {Elbers, AR and Koenraadt, CJ and Meiswinkel, R}, title = {Mosquitoes and Culicoides biting midges: vector range and the influence of climate change.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {123-137}, doi = {10.20506/rst.34.1.2349}, pmid = {26470453}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; Ceratopogonidae/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Culicidae/*physiology ; Insect Vectors/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne animal diseases pose a continuous and substantial threat to livestock economies around the globe. Increasing international travel, the globalisation of trade, and climate change are likely to play a progressively more important role in the introduction, establishment and spread of arthropod-borne pathogens worldwide. A review of the literature reveals that many climatic variables, functioning singly or in combination, exert varying effects on the distribution and range of Culicoides vector midges and mosquitoes. For example, higher temperatures may be associated with increased insect abundance--thereby amplifying the risk of disease transmission--but there are no indications yet of dramatic shifts occurring in the geographic range of Culicoides midges. However, the same cannot be said for mosquitoes: over the last few decades, multiple Asian species have established themselves in Europe, spread and are unlikely to ever be eradicated. Research on how insects respond to changes in climate is still in its infancy. The authors argue that we need to grasp how other annectant changes, such as extremes in precipitation (drought and flooding), may affect the dispersal capability of mosquitoes. Models are useful for assessing the interplay between mosquito vectors expanding their range and the native flora and fauna; however, ecological studies employing classical mark-release-recapture techniques remain essential for addressing fundamental questions about the survival and dispersal of mosquito species, with the resulting parameters fed directly into new-generation disease transmission models. Studies on the eventual impact of mosquitoes on animal and human health should be tackled through large-scale integrated research programmes. Such an approach calls for more collaborative efforts, along the lines of the One Health Initiative.}, }
@article {pmid26469033, year = {2015}, author = {Ren, J and Goodsite, ME and Sovacool, BK}, title = {Climate change: Climate justice more vital than democracy.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {526}, number = {7573}, pages = {323}, pmid = {26469033}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Democracy ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Policy Making ; Social Justice/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid26466364, year = {2015}, author = {Carroll, C and Lawler, JJ and Roberts, DR and Hamann, A}, title = {Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {e0140486}, pmid = {26466364}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961-2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site's future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26466347, year = {2015}, author = {Schut, AG and Ivits, E and Conijn, JG and Ten Brink, B and Fensholt, R}, title = {Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {e0138013}, pmid = {26466347}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Databases, Factual ; Ecosystem ; Humidity ; Linear Models ; Plant Development/*physiology ; Rain ; Seasons ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.}, }
@article {pmid26465729, year = {2015}, author = {Rodrigues, PM and Silva, JO and Eisenlohr, PV and Schaefer, CE}, title = {Climate change effects on the geographic distribution of specialist tree species of the Brazilian tropical dry forests.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {75}, number = {3}, pages = {679-684}, doi = {10.1590/1519-6984.20913}, pmid = {26465729}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {Anacardiaceae/physiology ; Aspidosperma/physiology ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fabaceae/physiology ; Forests ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Dispersal ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The aim of this study was to evaluate the ecological niche models (ENMs) for three specialist trees (Anadenanthera colubrina, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and Myracrodruon urundeuva) in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) in Brazil, considering present and future pessimist scenarios (2080) of climate change. These three species exhibit typical deciduousness and are widely distributed by SDTF in South America, being important in studies of the historical and evolutionary processes experienced by this ecosystem. The modeling of the potential geographic distribution of species was done by the method of maximum entropy (Maxent).We verified a general expansion of suitable areas for occurrence of the three species in future (c.a., 18%), although there was reduction of areas with high environmental suitability in Caatinga region. Precipitation of wettest quarter and temperature seasonality were the predictor variables that most contributed to our models. Climatic changes can provide more severe and longer dry season with increasing temperature and tree mortality in tropics. On this scenario, areas currently occupied by rainforest and savannas could become more suitable for occurrence of the SDTF specialist trees, whereas regions occupied by Caatinga could not support the future level of unsustainable (e.g., aridity). Long-term multidisciplinary studies are necessary to make reliable predictions of the plant's adaptation strategies and responses to climate changes in dry forest at community level. Based on the high deforestation rate, endemism and threat, public policies to minimize the effects of climate change on the biodiversity found within SDTFs must be undertaken rapidly.}, }
@article {pmid26465601, year = {2015}, author = {Ramo, C and Amat, JA and Nilsson, L and Schricke, V and Rodríguez-Alonso, M and Gómez-Crespo, E and Jubete, F and Navedo, JG and Masero, JA and Palacios, J and Boos, M and Green, AJ}, title = {Latitudinal-Related Variation in Wintering Population Trends of Greylag Geese (Anser Anser) along the Atlantic Flyway: A Response to Climate Change?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {e0140181}, pmid = {26465601}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Europe ; *Geese ; *Geography ; Population Dynamics ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {The unusually high quality of census data for large waterbirds in Europe facilitates the study of how population change varies across a broad geographical range and relates to global change. The wintering population of the greylag goose Anser anser in the Atlantic flyway spanning between Sweden and Spain has increased from 120 000 to 610 000 individuals over the past three decades, and expanded its wintering range northwards. Although population sizes recorded in January have increased in all seven countries in the wintering range, we found a pronounced northwards latitudinal effect in which the rate of increase is higher at greater latitudes, causing a constant shift in the centre of gravity for the spatial distribution of wintering geese. Local winter temperatures have a strong influence on goose numbers but in a manner that is also dependent on latitude, with the partial effect of temperature (while controlling for the increasing population trend between years) being negative at the south end and positive at the north end of the flyway. Contrary to assumptions in the literature, the expansion of crops exploited by greylag geese has made little contribution to the increases in population size. Only in one case (expansion of winter cereals in Denmark) did we find evidence of an effect of changing land use. The expanding and shifting greylag population is likely to have increasing impacts on habitats in northern Europe during the course of this century.}, }
@article {pmid26465060, year = {2015}, author = {Havens, KE and Paerl, HW}, title = {Climate Change at a Crossroad for Control of Harmful Algal Blooms.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {49}, number = {21}, pages = {12605-12606}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.5b03990}, pmid = {26465060}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Estuaries ; *Harmful Algal Bloom ; Humans ; Lakes ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Phosphorus/analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid26463267, year = {2016}, author = {Lara, MJ and Genet, H and McGuire, AD and Euskirchen, ES and Zhang, Y and Brown, DR and Jorgenson, MT and Romanovsky, V and Breen, A and Bolton, WR}, title = {Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {816-829}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13124}, pmid = {26463267}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Alaska ; Betula ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Permafrost ; Photography ; Picea ; Rain ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Temperature ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse-scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice-rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half-century, and much of these carbon-rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape-level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60-year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape-level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km[2] or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice-rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.}, }
@article {pmid26463121, year = {2016}, author = {Montwé, D and Isaac-Renton, M and Hamann, A and Spiecker, H}, title = {Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide-ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {806-815}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13123}, pmid = {26463121}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; British Columbia ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Forests ; Gene-Environment Interaction ; Genotype ; Pinus/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Temperature ; United States ; Yukon Territory ; }, abstract = {Choosing drought-tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long-term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26460118, year = {2015}, author = {Freeman, MC and Groom, B and Zeckhauser, RJ}, title = {Better predictions, better allocations: scientific advances and adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {2055}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2015.0122}, pmid = {26460118}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {Climate science initially aspired to improve understanding of what the future would bring, and thereby produce appropriate public policies and effective international climate agreements. If that hope is dashed, as now seems probable, effective policies for adapting to climate change become critical. Climate science assumes new responsibilities by helping to foster more appropriate adaptation measures, which might include shifting modes or locales of production. This theoretical article focuses on two broader tools: consumption smoothing in response to the risk of future losses, and physical adaptation measures to reduce potential damages. It shows that informative signals on the effects of climate change facilitate better decisions on the use of each tool, thereby increasing social welfare.}, }
@article {pmid26460042, year = {2015}, author = {Drijfhout, S and Bathiany, S and Beaulieu, C and Brovkin, V and Claussen, M and Huntingford, C and Scheffer, M and Sgubin, G and Swingedouw, D}, title = {Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {43}, pages = {E5777-86}, pmid = {26460042}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.}, }
@article {pmid26459063, year = {2015}, author = {Abbasi, K}, title = {Climate change and conflict: more than a fashionable association with health.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine}, volume = {108}, number = {10}, pages = {381}, pmid = {26459063}, issn = {1758-1095}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Middle East ; *Public Health ; Refugees ; *Social Problems ; }, }
@article {pmid26458303, year = {2016}, author = {Holyoak, M and Heath, SK}, title = {The integration of climate change, spatial dynamics, and habitat fragmentation: A conceptual overview.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {40-59}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12167}, pmid = {26458303}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {A growing number of studies have looked at how climate change alters the effects of habitat fragmentation and degradation on both single and multiple species; some raise concern that biodiversity loss and its effects will be exacerbated. The published literature on spatial dynamics (such as dispersal and metapopulation dynamics), habitat fragmentation and climate change requires synthesis and a conceptual framework to simplify thinking. We propose a framework that integrates how climate change affects spatial population dynamics and the effects of habitat fragmentation in terms of: (i) habitat quality, quantity and distribution; (ii) habitat connectivity; and (iii) the dynamics of habitat itself. We use the framework to categorize existing autecological studies and investigate how each is affected by anthropogenic climate change. It is clear that a changing climate produces changes in the geographic distribution of climatic conditions, and the amount and quality of habitat. The most thorough published studies show how such changes impact metapopulation persistence, source-sink dynamics, changes in species' geographic range and community composition. Climate-related changes in movement behavior and quantity, quality and distribution of habitat have also produced empirical changes in habitat connectivity for some species. An underexplored area is how habitat dynamics that are driven by climatic processes will affect species that live in dynamic habitats. We end our discussion by suggesting ways to improve current attempts to integrate climate change, spatial population dynamics and habitat fragmentation effects, and suggest distinct areas of study that might provide opportunities for more fully integrative work.}, }
@article {pmid26455783, year = {2015}, author = {Hernández-Delgado, EA}, title = {The emerging threats of climate change on tropical coastal ecosystem services, public health, local economies and livelihood sustainability of small islands: Cumulative impacts and synergies.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {101}, number = {1}, pages = {5-28}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.09.018}, pmid = {26455783}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/methods/trends ; Coral Reefs ; *Ecosystem ; Food Supply ; Humans ; *Islands ; Public Health ; Quality of Life ; }, abstract = {Climate change has significantly impacted tropical ecosystems critical for sustaining local economies and community livelihoods at global scales. Coastal ecosystems have largely declined, threatening the principal source of protein, building materials, tourism-based revenue, and the first line of defense against storm swells and sea level rise (SLR) for small tropical islands. Climate change has also impacted public health (i.e., altered distribution and increased prevalence of allergies, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases). Rapid human population growth has exacerbated pressure over coupled social-ecological systems, with concomitant non-sustainable impacts on natural resources, water availability, food security and sovereignty, public health, and quality of life, which should increase vulnerability and erode adaptation and mitigation capacity. This paper examines cumulative and synergistic impacts of climate change in the challenging context of highly vulnerable small tropical islands. Multiple adaptive strategies of coupled social-ecological ecosystems are discussed. Multi-level, multi-sectorial responses are necessary for adaptation to be successful.}, }
@article {pmid26453820, year = {2015}, author = {Vardoulakis, S and Dimitroulopoulou, C and Thornes, J and Lai, KM and Taylor, J and Myers, I and Heaviside, C and Mavrogianni, A and Shrubsole, C and Chalabi, Z and Davies, M and Wilkinson, P}, title = {Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {85}, number = {}, pages = {299-313}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.010}, pmid = {26453820}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Aged ; Air Pollution, Indoor/*analysis/prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Monoxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Housing/*standards ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Particle Size ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Public Health ; Radon/analysis ; Risk Assessment ; United Kingdom ; Ventilation ; }, abstract = {There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socioeconomically deprived. A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted.}, }
@article {pmid26450937, year = {2015}, author = {Henderson, S and Mulder, R}, title = {Climate change and mental disorders.}, journal = {The Australian and New Zealand journal of psychiatry}, volume = {49}, number = {11}, pages = {1061-1062}, doi = {10.1177/0004867415610639}, pmid = {26450937}, issn = {1440-1614}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Mental Disorders/*epidemiology/*etiology ; *Mental Health ; }, }
@article {pmid26450062, year = {2015}, author = {Padma, TV}, title = {India unveils climate-change pledge ahead of global talks.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {526}, number = {7572}, pages = {176}, doi = {10.1038/nature.2015.18489}, pmid = {26450062}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Congresses as Topic ; Fossil Fuels/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Warming/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; India ; *International Cooperation ; Paris ; Renewable Energy/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Soot/adverse effects/analysis ; United Nations/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid26440428, year = {2015}, author = {Farrell, C and Szota, C and Arndt, SK}, title = {Urban Plantings: 'Living Laboratories' for Climate Change Response.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {20}, number = {10}, pages = {597-599}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2015.08.006}, pmid = {26440428}, issn = {1878-4372}, mesh = {*City Planning ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Urban plantings are not only valuable resources for understanding 'urban plant physiology' but are 'living laboratories' for understanding plant response to climate change. Therefore, we encourage researchers who currently work in natural ecosystems to consider how urban plantings could enhance their research into plant physiological responses to a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid26439862, year = {2016}, author = {Dirnböck, T and Kobler, J and Kraus, D and Grote, R and Kiese, R}, title = {Impacts of management and climate change on nitrate leaching in a forested karst area.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {165}, number = {}, pages = {243-252}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.09.039}, pmid = {26439862}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Austria ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forestry/methods ; *Forests ; Groundwater/*chemistry ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrates/*analysis/chemistry ; Nitrogen/analysis/chemistry ; Seasons ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Forest management and climate change, directly or indirectly, affect drinking water resources, both in terms of quality and quantity. In this study in the Northern Limestone Alps in Austria we have chosen model calculations (LandscapeDNDC) in order to resolve the complex long-term interactions of management and climate change and their effect on nitrogen dynamics, and the consequences for nitrate leaching from forest soils into the karst groundwater. Our study highlights the dominant role of forest management in controlling nitrate leaching. Both clear-cut and shelterwood-cut disrupt the nitrogen cycle to an extent that causes peak concentrations and high fluxes into the seepage water. While this effect is well known, our modelling approach has revealed additional positive as well as negative impacts of the expected climatic changes on nitrate leaching. First, we show that peak nitrate concentrations during post-cutting periods were elevated under all climate scenarios. The maximal effects of climatic changes on nitrate concentration peaks were 20-24 mg L(-1) in 2090 with shelterwood or clear-cut management. Second, climate change significantly decreased the cumulative nitrate losses over full forest rotation periods (by 10-20%). The stronger the expected temperature increase and precipitation decrease (in summer), the lesser were the observed nitrate losses. However, mean annual seepage water nitrate concentrations and cumulative nitrate leaching were higher under continuous forest cover management than with shelterwood-cut and clear-cut systems. Watershed management can thus be adapted to climate change by either reducing peak concentrations or long-term loads of nitrate in the karst groundwater.}, }
@article {pmid26438284, year = {2015}, author = {Friedlingstein, P}, title = {Carbon cycle feedbacks and future climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {373}, number = {2054}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2014.0421}, pmid = {26438284}, issn = {1471-2962}, abstract = {Climate and carbon cycle are tightly coupled on many timescales, from interannual to multi-millennial timescales. Observations always evidence a positive feedback, warming leading to release of carbon to the atmosphere; however, the processes at play differ depending on the timescales. State-of-the-art Earth System Models now represent these climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, always simulating a positive feedback over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, although with substantial uncertainty. Recent studies now help to reduce this uncertainty. First, on short timescales, El Niño years record larger than average atmospheric CO2 growth rate, with tropical land ecosystems being the main drivers. These climate-carbon cycle anomalies can be used as emerging constraint on the tropical land carbon response to future climate change. Second, centennial variability found in last millennium records can be used to constrain the overall global carbon cycle response to climatic excursions. These independent methods point to climate-carbon cycle feedback at the low-end of the Earth System Models range, indicating that these models overestimate the carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. These new findings also help to attribute the historical land and ocean carbon sinks to increase in atmospheric CO2 and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26437599, year = {2015}, author = {Drijfhout, S}, title = {Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {14877}, pmid = {26437599}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.}, }
@article {pmid26436916, year = {2015}, author = {Keith, H and Lindenmayer, D and Macintosh, A and Mackey, B}, title = {Under What Circumstances Do Wood Products from Native Forests Benefit Climate Change Mitigation?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {e0139640}, pmid = {26436916}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forestry/*organization &amp; administration ; *Forests ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; New South Wales ; Paper ; Refuse Disposal ; Victoria ; *Wood ; }, abstract = {Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Conservation of native forests results in an immediate and substantial reduction in net emissions relative to a reference case of commercial harvesting. We calibrated models to simulate scenarios of native forest management for two Australian case studies: mixed-eucalypt in New South Wales and Mountain Ash in Victoria. Carbon stocks in the harvested forest included forest biomass, wood and paper products, waste in landfill, and bioenergy that substituted for fossil fuel energy. The conservation forest included forest biomass, and subtracted stocks for the foregone products that were substituted by non-wood products or plantation products. Total carbon stocks were lower in harvested forest than in conservation forest in both case studies over the 100-year simulation period. We tested a range of potential parameter values reported in the literature: none could increase the combined carbon stock in products, slash, landfill and substitution sufficiently to exceed the increase in carbon stock due to changing management of native forest to conservation. The key parameters determining carbon stock change under different forest management scenarios are those affecting accumulation of carbon in forest biomass, rather than parameters affecting transfers among wood products. This analysis helps prioritise mitigation activities to focus on maximising forest biomass. International forest-related policies, including negotiations under the UNFCCC, have failed to recognize fully the mitigation value of native forest conservation. Our analyses provide evidence for decision-making about the circumstances under which forest management provides mitigation benefits.}, }
@article {pmid26436263, year = {2015}, author = {Morales, I and Amador, JA and Boving, T}, title = {Bacteria Transport in a Soil-Based Wastewater Treatment System under Simulated Operational and Climate Change Conditions.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {44}, number = {5}, pages = {1459-1472}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2014.12.0547}, pmid = {26436263}, issn = {0047-2425}, abstract = {Bacteria removal efficiencies in a conventional soil-based wastewater treatment system (OWTS) have been modeled to elucidate the fate and transport of bacteria under environmental and operational conditions that might be expected under changing climatic conditions. The HYDRUS 2D/3D software was used to model the impact of changing precipitation patterns, bacteria concentrations, hydraulic loading rates (HLRs), and higher subsurface temperatures at different depths and soil textures. Modeled effects of bacteria concentration shows that greater depth of treatment was required in coarser soils than in fine-textured ones to remove . The initial removal percentage was higher when HLR was lower, but it was greater when HLR was higher. When a biomat layer was included in the transport model, the performance of the system improved by up to 12.0%. Lower bacteria removal (<5%) was observed at all depths under the influence of precipitation rates ranging from 5 to 35 cm, and 35-cm rainfall combined with a 70% increase in HLR. Increased subsurface temperature (23°C) increased bacteria removal relative to a lower temperature range (5-20°C). Our results show that the model is able to effectively simulate bacteria removal and the effect of precipitation and temperature in different soil textures. It appears that the performance of OWTS may be impacted by changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid26432813, year = {2015}, author = {Bowles, DC and Butler, CD and Morisetti, N}, title = {Climate change, conflict and health.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine}, volume = {108}, number = {10}, pages = {390-395}, pmid = {26432813}, issn = {1758-1095}, mesh = {Armed Conflicts ; *Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Social Problems ; Terrorism ; Warfare ; }, abstract = {Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable.}, }
@article {pmid26432666, year = {2016}, author = {Zheng, B and Chenu, K and Chapman, SC}, title = {Velocity of temperature and flowering time in wheat - assisting breeders to keep pace with climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {921-933}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13118}, pmid = {26432666}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Flowers/*growth &amp; development ; Models, Theoretical ; Plant Breeding/methods ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {By accelerating crop development, warming climates may result in mismatches between key sensitive growth stages and extreme climate events, with severe consequences for crop yield and food security. Using recent estimates of gene responses to vernalization and photoperiod in wheat, we modelled the flowering times of all 'potential' genotypes as influenced by the velocity of climate change across the Australian wheatbelt. In the period 1957-2010, seasonal increases in temperature of 0.012 °C yr(-1) were recorded and changed flowering time of a mid-season wheat genotype by an average -0.074 day yr(-1) , with flowering 'velocity' of up to 0.95 km yr(-1) towards the coastal edges of the wheatbelt; this is an estimate of how quickly the given genotype would have to be 'moved' across the landscape to maintain its original flowering time. By 2030, these national changes are projected to accelerate by up to 3-fold for seasonal temperature and by up to 5-fold for flowering time between now and 2030, with average national shifts in flowering time of 0.33 and 0.41 day yr(-1) between baseline and the worst climate scenario tested for 2030 and 2050, respectively. Without new flowering alleles in commercial germplasm, the life cycle of wheat crops is predicted to shorten by 2 weeks by 2030 across the wheatbelt for the most pessimistic climate scenario. While current cultivars may be otherwise suitable for future conditions, they will flower earlier due to warmer temperatures. To allow earlier sowing to escape frost, heat and terminal drought, and to maintain current growing period of early-sown wheat crops in the future, breeders will need to develop and/or introduce new genetic sources for later flowering, more so in the eastern part of the wheatbelt.}, }
@article {pmid26430174, year = {2017}, author = {McIver, L and Bowen, K and Hanna, E and Iddings, S}, title = {A 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change in the Pacific.}, journal = {Health promotion international}, volume = {32}, number = {3}, pages = {549-557}, doi = {10.1093/heapro/dav094}, pmid = {26430174}, issn = {1460-2245}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health/methods/organization &amp; administration ; *Health Planning ; *Health Policy ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Pacific Islands ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {Small Pacific Island countries (PICs) are among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the anticipated detrimental health effects of climate change. The assessment of health vulnerabilities and planning adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change on health tests traditional health governance structures and depends on strong linkages and partnerships between actors involved in these vital processes. This article reviews the actors, processes and contexts of the climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project carried out by the World Health Organization and health sector partners in three island countries in the Micronesian region of the Pacific throughout 2010 and 2011: Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands and Palau. Despite their shared history and cultural characteristics, the findings and implications of this article are considered to have substantial relevance and potential application to other PICs. The modified 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change and health adaptation presented in this article draws upon real-world experience and governance theory from both the health and climate change literature and, for the first time, places health systems adaptation within the vision for 'Healthy Islands' in the Pacific region.}, }
@article {pmid26430105, year = {2015}, author = {Field, CB and Barros, VR}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. Added value from IPCC approval sessions.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {350}, number = {6256}, pages = {36}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaa8976}, pmid = {26430105}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid26430104, year = {2015}, author = {Carraro, C and Edenhofer, O and Flachsland, C and Kolstad, C and Stavins, R and Stowe, R}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. The IPCC at a crossroads: Opportunities for reform.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {350}, number = {6256}, pages = {34-35}, doi = {10.1126/science.aac4419}, pmid = {26430104}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid26426901, year = {2015}, author = {Flousek, J and Telenský, T and Hanzelka, J and Reif, J}, title = {Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {e0139465}, pmid = {26426901}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*classification/*physiology ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.}, }
@article {pmid26422694, year = {2015}, author = {Hamilton, LC and Hartter, J and Lemcke-Stampone, M and Moore, DW and Safford, TG}, title = {Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e0138208}, pmid = {26422694}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Culture ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; New Hampshire ; *Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.}, }
@article {pmid26418127, year = {2015}, author = {Lineman, M and Do, Y and Kim, JY and Joo, GJ}, title = {Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e0138996}, pmid = {26418127}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Public Opinion ; Social Media/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.}, }
@article {pmid26416746, year = {2015}, author = {Fu, YH and Zhao, H and Piao, S and Peaucelle, M and Peng, S and Zhou, G and Ciais, P and Huang, M and Menzel, A and Peñuelas, J and Song, Y and Vitasse, Y and Zeng, Z and Janssens, IA}, title = {Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {526}, number = {7571}, pages = {104-107}, pmid = {26416746}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Cold Temperature ; Europe ; *Global Warming ; Models, Biological ; Photoperiod ; Plant Leaves/*growth &amp; development ; *Seasons ; Time Factors ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Earlier spring leaf unfolding is a frequently observed response of plants to climate warming. Many deciduous tree species require chilling for dormancy release, and warming-related reductions in chilling may counteract the advance of leaf unfolding in response to warming. Empirical evidence for this, however, is limited to saplings or twigs in climate-controlled chambers. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, here we show that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance of leaf unfolding per °C warming) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 ± 1.8 days °C(-1) during 1980-1994 to 2.3 ± 1.6 days °C(-1) during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also have a role, such as 'photoperiod limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates occur too early in the season. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining ST, but also suggest that the predicted strong winter warming in the future may further reduce ST and therefore result in a slowdown in the advance of tree spring phenology.}, }
@article {pmid26410707, year = {2016}, author = {Riediger, J and Breckling, B and Svoboda, N and Schröder, W}, title = {Modelling regional variability of irrigation requirements due to climate change in Northern Germany.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {541}, number = {}, pages = {329-340}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.09.043}, pmid = {26410707}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The question whether global climate change invalidates the efficiency of established land use practice cannot be answered without systemic considerations on a region specific basis. In this context plant water availability and irrigation requirements, respectively, were investigated in Northern Germany. The regions under investigation--Diepholz, Uelzen, Fläming and Oder-Spree--represent a climatic gradient with increasing continentality from West to East. Besides regional climatic variation and climate change, soil conditions and crop management differ on the regional scale. In the model regions, temporal seasonal droughts influence crop success already today, but on different levels of intensity depending mainly on climate conditions. By linking soil water holding capacities, crop management data and calculations of evapotranspiration and precipitation from the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 irrigation requirements for maintaining crop productivity were estimated for the years 1991 to 2070. Results suggest that water requirement for crop irrigation is likely to increase with considerable regional variation. For some of the regions, irrigation requirements might increase to such an extent that the established regional agricultural practice might be hard to retain. Where water availability is limited, agricultural practice, like management and cultivated crop spectrum, has to be changed to deal with the new challenges.}, }
@article {pmid26410091, year = {2015}, author = {Ordóñez Barona, C}, title = {Adopting public values and climate change adaptation strategies in urban forest management: A review and analysis of the relevant literature.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {164}, number = {}, pages = {215-221}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.09.004}, pmid = {26410091}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Cities ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forestry/*methods ; *Forests ; Humans ; Public Opinion ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Urban trees are a dominant natural element in cities; they provide important ecosystem services to urban citizens and help urban areas adapt to climate change. Many rationales have been proposed to provide a purpose for urban forest management, some of which have been ineffective in addressing important ecological and social management themes. Among these rationales we find a values-based perspective, which sees management as a process where the desires of urban dwellers are met. Another perspective is climate change adaptation, which sees management as a process where urban forest vulnerability to climate change is reduced and resilience enhanced. Both these rationales have the advantage of complementing, enhancing, and broadening urban forest management objectives. A critical analysis of the literature on public values related to urban forests and climate change adaptation in the context of urban forests is undertaken to discuss what it means to adopt these two issues in urban forest management. The analysis suggests that by seeing urban forest management as a process by which public values are satisfied and urban-forest vulnerabilities to climate change are reduced, we can place issues such as naturalization, adaptive management, and engaging people in management at the centre of urban forest management. Focusing urban forest management on these issues may help ensure the success of programs focused on planting more trees and increasing citizen participation in urban forest management.}, }
@article {pmid26406891, year = {2015}, author = {Su, J and Aryal, A and Nan, Z and Ji, W}, title = {Climate Change-Induced Range Expansion of a Subterranean Rodent: Implications for Rangeland Management in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e0138969}, pmid = {26406891}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Muridae/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Disturbances, both human-induced and natural, may re-shape ecosystems by influencing their composition, structure, and functional processes. Plateau zokor (Eospalax baileyi) is a typical subterranean rodent endemic to Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which are considered ecosystem engineers influencing the alpine ecosystem function. It is also regarded as a pest aggravating the degradation of overgrazed grassland and subject to regular control in QTP since 1950s. Climate change has been predicted in this region but little research exists exploring its impact on such subterranean rodent populations. Using plateau zokor as a model, through maximum entropy niche-based modeling (Maxent) and sustainable habitat models, we investigate zokor habitat dynamics driven by the future climate scenarios. Our models project that zokor suitable habitat will increase by 6.25% in 2050 in QTP. The predication indicated more threats in terms of grassland degradation as zokor suitable habitat will increase in 2050. Distribution of zokors will shift much more in their southern range with lower elevation compare to northern range with higher elevation. The estimated distance of shift ranges from 1 km to 94 km from current distribution. Grassland management should take into account such predictions in order to design mitigation measures to prevent further grassland degradation in QTP under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid26406536, year = {2015}, author = {Kumar, RR and Goswami, S and Sharma, SK and Kala, YK and Rai, GK and Mishra, DC and Grover, M and Singh, GP and Pathak, H and Rai, A and Chinnusamy, V and Rai, RD}, title = {Harnessing Next Generation Sequencing in Climate Change: RNA-Seq Analysis of Heat Stress-Responsive Genes in Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.).}, journal = {Omics : a journal of integrative biology}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {632-647}, pmid = {26406536}, issn = {1557-8100}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Contig Mapping ; Flowers/genetics ; Gene Expression Profiling ; *Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; Gene Ontology ; Genome Size ; *Genome, Plant ; High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing ; Hot Temperature ; Molecular Sequence Annotation ; Stress, Physiological/genetics ; *Transcriptome ; Triticum/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Wheat is a staple food worldwide and provides 40% of the calories in the diet. Climate change and global warming pose a threat to wheat production, however, and demand a deeper understanding of how heat stress might impact wheat production and wheat biology. However, it is difficult to identify novel heat stress associated genes when the genomic information is not available. Wheat has a very large and complex genome that is about 37 times the size of the rice genome. The present study sequenced the whole transcriptome of the wheat cv. HD2329 at the flowering stage, under control (22°±3°C) and heat stress (42°C, 2 h) conditions using Illumina HiSeq and Roche GS-FLX 454 platforms. We assembled more than 26.3 and 25.6 million high-quality reads from the control and HS-treated tissues transcriptome sequences respectively. About 76,556 (control) and 54,033 (HS-treated) contigs were assembled and annotated de novo using different assemblers and a total of 21,529 unigenes were obtained. Gene expression profile showed significant differential expression of 1525 transcripts under heat stress, of which 27 transcripts showed very high (>10) fold upregulation. Cellular processes such as metabolic processes, protein phosphorylation, oxidations-reductions, among others were highly influenced by heat stress. In summary, these observations significantly enrich the transcript dataset of wheat available on public domain and show a de novo approach to discover the heat-responsive transcripts of wheat, which can accelerate the progress of wheat stress-genomics as well as the course of wheat breeding programs in the era of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26404836, year = {2015}, author = {Miller-Struttmann, NE and Geib, JC and Franklin, JD and Kevan, PG and Holdo, RM and Ebert-May, D and Lynn, AM and Kettenbach, JA and Hedrick, E and Galen, C}, title = {Functional mismatch in a bumble bee pollination mutualism under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {349}, number = {6255}, pages = {1541-1544}, doi = {10.1126/science.aab0868}, pmid = {26404836}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Flowers/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; *Pollination ; *Symbiosis ; Tongue/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Ecological partnerships, or mutualisms, are globally widespread, sustaining agriculture and biodiversity. Mutualisms evolve through the matching of functional traits between partners, such as tongue length of pollinators and flower tube depth of plants. Long-tongued pollinators specialize on flowers with deep corolla tubes, whereas shorter-tongued pollinators generalize across tube lengths. Losses of functional guilds because of shifts in global climate may disrupt mutualisms and threaten partner species. We found that in two alpine bumble bee species, decreases in tongue length have evolved over 40 years. Co-occurring flowers have not become shallower, nor are small-flowered plants more prolific. We argue that declining floral resources because of warmer summers have favored generalist foraging, leading to a mismatch between shorter-tongued bees and the longer-tubed plants they once pollinated.}, }
@article {pmid26404810, year = {2015}, author = {Solow, AR}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. Extreme weather, made by us?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {349}, number = {6255}, pages = {1444-1445}, doi = {10.1126/science.aad2132}, pmid = {26404810}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid26404333, year = {2015}, author = {Jiang, C and Zhang, L}, title = {Climate Change and Its Impact on the Eco-Environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region on the Tibetan Plateau, China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {12057-12081}, pmid = {26404333}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Ice Cover ; Rain ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the eco-environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), Tibetan Plateau, China. Temperature and precipitation experienced sharp increases in this region during the past 57 years. A dramatic increase in winter temperatures contributed to a rise in average annual temperatures. Moreover, annual runoff in the Lancang (LRB) and Yangtze (YARB) river basins showed an increasing trend, compared to a slight decrease in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Runoff is predominantly influenced by rainfall, which is controlled by several monsoon systems. The water temperature in the YRB and YARB increased significantly from 1958 to 2007 (p < 0.001), driven by air temperature changes. Additionally, owing to warming and wetting trends in the TRHR, the net primary productivity (NPP) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed significant increasing trends during the past half-century. Furthermore, although an increase in water erosion due to rainfall erosivity was observed, wind speeds declined significantly, causing a decline in wind erosion, as well as the frequency and duration of sandstorms. A clear regional warming trend caused an obvious increasing trend in glacier runoff, with a maximum value observed in the 2000s.}, }
@article {pmid26403195, year = {2015}, author = {Storlazzi, CD and Elias, EP and Berkowitz, P}, title = {Many Atolls May be Uninhabitable Within Decades Due to Climate Change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {14546}, pmid = {26403195}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Islands ; Models, Theoretical ; Pacific Ocean ; }, abstract = {Observations show global sea level is rising due to climate change, with the highest rates in the tropical Pacific Ocean where many of the world's low-lying atolls are located. Sea-level rise is particularly critical for low-lying carbonate reef-lined atoll islands; these islands have limited land and water available for human habitation, water and food sources, and ecosystems that are vulnerable to inundation from sea-level rise. Here we demonstrate that sea-level rise will result in larger waves and higher wave-driven water levels along atoll islands' shorelines than at present. Numerical model results reveal waves will synergistically interact with sea-level rise, causing twice as much land forecast to be flooded for a given value of sea-level rise than currently predicted by current models that do not take wave-driven water levels into account. Atolls with islands close to the shallow reef crest are more likely to be subjected to greater wave-induced run-up and flooding due to sea-level rise than those with deeper reef crests farther from the islands' shorelines. It appears that many atoll islands will be flooded annually, salinizing the limited freshwater resources and thus likely forcing inhabitants to abandon their islands in decades, not centuries, as previously thought.}, }
@article {pmid26403107, year = {2015}, author = {Garcia-Mozo, H and Oteros, J and Galan, C}, title = {Phenological changes in olive (Ola europaea L.) reproductive cycle in southern Spain due to climate change.}, journal = {Annals of agricultural and environmental medicine : AAEM}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {421-428}, doi = {10.5604/12321966.1167706}, pmid = {26403107}, issn = {1898-2263}, mesh = {Allergens/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Olea/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Pollen/*physiology ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Spain ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Modifications of crop species phenology due to a changing environment are of interest because of their impact on fruit set and final harvest. Pre-flowering and flowering phenophases in olive groves at different sites of southern Spain were examined, in order to chart potential trends and determine major correlations with weather-related parameters, especially temperature and water availability. The high prevalence of olive pollen allergy in the Mediterranean population makes this study highly relevant.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ten sites in Cordoba province (Spain) during a 17-year period (1996-2012). BBCH phenology scale. Meteorological data from 1960 were analyzed; data from 1996 included on modeling analysis. Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) were developed, combining phenological and meteorological data.<br><br>RESULTS: Since 1960, local spring temperatures have increased 1.5&#xba;C, the number of spring rainfall days has fallen 11 days, total rainfall has declined 150 mm. Despite phenological differences between sites, attributable to altitude, phenological development during the season followed a similar pattern. Flowering dates advanced 2 days, while inflorescence emergence was delayed 24 days. Trend slopes revealed differences, an earlier period (1996-2002) with a sharp flowering advance of 15 days, and a later period (2003-2012) characterized by a gradual advance and a high bud emergence delay of 22 days.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: LMMs was revealed as an appropriate technique for phenology behaviour analysis displaying both fixed and random interactions. Cultivars grown in the study province are adapted to climate with a synchronized response, although climate change is affecting theolive reproductive cycle in southern Spain; therefore, the timing of pollen release, with subsequent consequences on allergic population as phenological changes, could have impacts on flowering period and pollen production. Further investigation is required of the implications for crop production in Mediterranean ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid26402690, year = {2015}, author = {Benmarhnia, T and Grenier, P and Brand, A and Fournier, M and Deguen, S and Smargiassi, A}, title = {Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {11869-11879}, pmid = {26402690}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cause of Death/trends ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Linear Models ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Paris ; *Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Quebec ; Risk ; Seasons ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris.<br><br>METHODS: We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future.}, }
@article {pmid26395251, year = {2016}, author = {Thomas, SM and Griffiths, SW and Ormerod, SJ}, title = {Beyond cool: adapting upland streams for climate change using riparian woodlands.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {310-324}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13103}, pmid = {26395251}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; *Forests ; Invertebrates/*physiology ; *Rivers ; Sunlight ; Trees ; Wales ; }, abstract = {Managed adaptation could reduce the risks of climate change to the world's ecosystems, but there have been surprisingly few practical evaluations of the options available. For example, riparian woodland is advocated widely as shade to reduce warming in temperate streams, but few studies have considered collateral effects on species composition or ecosystem functions. Here, we use cross-sectional analyses at two scales (region and within streams) to investigate whether four types of riparian management, including those proposed to reduce potential climate change impacts, might also affect the composition, functional character, dynamics and energetic resourcing of macroinvertebrates in upland Welsh streams (UK). Riparian land use across the region had only small effects on invertebrate taxonomic composition, while stable isotope data showed how energetic resources assimilated by macroinvertebrates in all functional guilds were split roughly 50:50 between terrestrial and aquatic origins irrespective of riparian management. Nevertheless, streams draining the most extensive deciduous woodland had the greatest stocks of coarse particulate matter (CPOM) and greater numbers of 'shredding' detritivores. Stream-scale investigations showed that macroinvertebrate biomass in deciduous woodland streams was around twice that in moorland streams, and lowest of all in streams draining non-native conifers. The unexpected absence of contrasting terrestrial signals in the isotopic data implies that factors other than local land use affect the relative incorporation of allochthonous subsidies into riverine food webs. Nevertheless, our results reveal how planting deciduous riparian trees along temperate headwaters as an adaptation to climate change can modify macroinvertebrate function, increase biomass and potentially enhance resilience by increasing basal resources where cover is extensive (>60 m riparian width). We advocate greater urgency in efforts to understand the ecosystem consequences of climate change adaptation to guide future actions.}, }
@article {pmid26394247, year = {2015}, author = {Bell, EJ and Turner, P and Meinke, H and Holbrook, NJ}, title = {Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study.}, journal = {Rural and remote health}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {3174}, pmid = {26394247}, issn = {1445-6354}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Humans ; Pilot Projects ; *Rural Health ; Rural Health Services/*organization &amp; administration ; Tasmania ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change?<br><br>METHODS: The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed.<br><br>RESULTS: Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites - based on an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change style of assessment. Consensus statements from stakeholders also suggested concern with health sector adaptation capacity and community resilience, and what community stakeholders defined as 'last straw' climate effects in already stressed communities. Preventative action and community engagement were also seen as important, especially with regard to managing the ways that climate change can multiply socioeconomic and health outcome inequality. Above all, stakeholder responses emphasised the importance of an applied, complexity-oriented understanding of how climate and climate change impacts affect local communities and local services to compromise the overall quality of human health in these communities.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Complex community-level assessments about climate change and related health risks and responses can be captured electronically in ways that offer potentially actionable information about priorities for health sector adaptation, as a first step in planning. What is valuable about these community judgements is the creation of shared values and commitments. Future iteration of the IT tool could include decision-support modules to support best practice health sector adaptation scenarios, providing participants with opportunities to develop their know-how about health sector adaptation to climate change. If managed carefully, such tools could work within a balanced portfolio of measures to help reduce the rising health burden from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26386464, year = {2015}, author = {Perez, L and Trüeb, S and Cowie, H and Keuken, MP and Mudu, P and Ragettli, MS and Sarigiannis, DA and Tobollik, M and Tuomisto, J and Vienneau, D and Sabel, C and Künzli, N}, title = {Transport-related measures to mitigate climate change in Basel, Switzerland: A health-effectiveness comparison study.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {85}, number = {}, pages = {111-119}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2015.08.002}, pmid = {26386464}, issn = {1873-6750}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/analysis/*prevention &amp; control ; Automobiles ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Health Impact Assessment/*methods ; Humans ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Switzerland ; Vehicle Emissions/*analysis ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Local strategies to reduce green-house gases (GHG) imply changes of non-climatic exposure patterns.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To assess the health impacts of locally relevant transport-related climate change policies in Basel, Switzerland.<br><br>METHODS: We modelled change in mortality and morbidity for the year 2020 based on several locally relevant transport scenarios including all decided transport policies up to 2020, additional realistic and hypothesized traffic reductions, as well as ambitious diffusion levels of electric cars. The scenarios were compared to the reference condition in 2010 assumed as status quo. The changes in non-climatic population exposure included ambient air pollution, physical activity, and noise. As secondary outcome, changes in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were put into perspective with predicted changes of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption.<br><br>RESULTS: Under the scenario that assumed a strict particle emissions standard in diesel cars and all planned transport measures, 3% of premature deaths could be prevented from projected PM2.5 exposure reduction. A traffic reduction scenario assuming more active trips provided only minor added health benefits for any of the changes in exposure considered. A hypothetical strong support to electric vehicles diffusion would have the largest health effectiveness given that the energy production in Basel comes from renewable sources.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The planned local transport related GHG emission reduction policies in Basel are sensible for mitigating climate change and improving public health. In this context, the most effective policy remains increasing zero-emission vehicles.}, }
@article {pmid26386203, year = {2016}, author = {Weller, S and Janz, B and Jörg, L and Kraus, D and Racela, HS and Wassmann, R and Butterbach-Bahl, K and Kiese, R}, title = {Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential of traditional and diversified tropical rice rotation systems.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {432-448}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13099}, pmid = {26386203}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; Agriculture/*methods ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Oryza/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Seasons ; Soil/chemistry ; Zea mays/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Global rice agriculture will be increasingly challenged by water scarcity, while at the same time changes in demand (e.g. changes in diets or increasing demand for biofuels) will feed back on agricultural practices. These factors are changing traditional cropping patterns from double-rice cropping to the introduction of upland crops in the dry season. For a comprehensive assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) balances, we measured methane (CH4)/nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions and agronomic parameters over 2.5 years in double-rice cropping (R-R) and paddy rice rotations diversified with either maize (R-M) or aerobic rice (R-A) in upland cultivation. Introduction of upland crops in the dry season reduced irrigation water use and CH4 emissions by 66-81% and 95-99%, respectively. Moreover, for practices including upland crops, CH4 emissions in the subsequent wet season with paddy rice were reduced by 54-60%. Although annual N2 O emissions increased two- to threefold in the diversified systems, the strong reduction in CH4 led to a significantly lower (P < 0.05) annual GWP (CH4 + N2 O) as compared to the traditional double-rice cropping system. Measurements of soil organic carbon (SOC) contents before and 3 years after the introduction of upland crop rotations indicated a SOC loss for the R-M system, while for the other systems SOC stocks were unaffected. This trend for R-M systems needs to be followed as it has significant consequences not only for the GWP balance but also with regard to soil fertility. Economic assessment showed a similar gross profit span for R-M and R-R, while gross profits for R-A were reduced as a consequence of lower productivity. Nevertheless, regarding a future increase in water scarcity, it can be expected that mixed lowland-upland systems will expand in SE Asia as water requirements were cut by more than half in both rotation systems with upland crops.}, }
@article {pmid26380675, year = {2015}, author = {Tougas-Tellier, MA and Morin, J and Hatin, D and Lavoie, C}, title = {Freshwater wetlands: fertile grounds for the invasive Phragmites australis in a climate change context.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {16}, pages = {3421-3435}, pmid = {26380675}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change will likely affect flooding regimes, which have a large influence on the functioning of freshwater riparian wetlands. Low water levels predicted for several fluvial systems make wetlands especially vulnerable to the spread of invaders, such as the common reed (Phragmites australis), one of the most invasive species in North America. We developed a model to map the distribution of potential germination grounds of the common reed in freshwater wetlands of the St. Lawrence River (Québec, Canada) under current climate conditions and used this model to predict their future distribution under two climate change scenarios simulated for 2050. We gathered historical and recent (remote sensing) data on the distribution of common reed stands for model calibration and validation purposes, then determined the parameters controlling the species establishment by seed. A two-dimensional model and the identified parameters were used to simulate the current (2010) and future (2050) distribution of germination grounds. Common reed stands are not widespread along the St. Lawrence River (212 ha), but our model suggests that current climate conditions are already conducive to considerable further expansion (>16,000 ha). Climate change may also exacerbate the expansion, particularly if river water levels drop, which will expose large bare areas propitious to seed germination. This phenomenon may be particularly important in one sector of the river, where existing common reed stands could increase their areas by a factor of 100, potentially creating the most extensive reedbed complex in North America. After colonizing salt and brackishwater marshes, the common reed could considerably expand into the freshwater marshes of North America which cover several million hectares. The effects of common reed expansion on biodiversity are difficult to predict, but likely to be highly deleterious given the competitiveness of the invader and the biological richness of freshwater wetlands.}, }
@article {pmid26378551, year = {2015}, author = {Hansen, KM and Christensen, JH and Brandt, J}, title = {The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {11254-11268}, pmid = {26378551}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Arctic Regions ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Humans ; Mercury/*analysis ; *Models, Chemical ; }, abstract = {Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition.}, }
@article {pmid26377857, year = {2016}, author = {Hashim, JH and Hashim, Z}, title = {Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {28}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {8S-14S}, doi = {10.1177/1010539515599030}, pmid = {26377857}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate Change ; Disasters/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Pacific Islands ; Public Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity.}, }
@article {pmid26374998, year = {2015}, author = {Alexander, JM and Diez, JM and Levine, JM}, title = {Novel competitors shape species' responses to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {525}, number = {7570}, pages = {515-518}, pmid = {26374998}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Altitude ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Switzerland ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding how species respond to climate change is critical for forecasting the future dynamics and distribution of pests, diseases and biological diversity. Although ecologists have long acknowledged species' direct physiological and demographic responses to climate, more recent work suggests that these direct responses can be overwhelmed by indirect effects mediated via other interacting community members. Theory suggests that some of the most dramatic impacts of community change will probably arise through the assembly of novel species combinations after asynchronous migrations with climate. Empirical tests of this prediction are rare, as existing work focuses on the effects of changing interactions between competitors that co-occur today. To explore how species' responses to climate warming depend on how their competitors migrate to track climate, we transplanted alpine plant species and intact plant communities along a climate gradient in the Swiss Alps. Here we show that when alpine plants were transplanted to warmer climates to simulate a migration failure, their performance was strongly reduced by novel competitors that could migrate upwards from lower elevation; these effects generally exceeded the impact of warming on competition with current competitors. In contrast, when we grew the focal plants under their current climate to simulate climate tracking, a shift in the competitive environment to novel high-elevation competitors had little to no effect. This asymmetry in the importance of changing competitor identity at the leading versus trailing range edges is best explained by the degree of functional similarity between current and novel competitors. We conclude that accounting for novel competitive interactions may be essential to predict species' responses to climate change accurately.}, }
@article {pmid26374517, year = {2015}, author = {Takkis, K and Tscheulin, T and Tsalkatis, P and Petanidou, T}, title = {Climate change reduces nectar secretion in two common Mediterranean plants.}, journal = {AoB PLANTS}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {26374517}, issn = {2041-2851}, abstract = {Global warming can lead to considerable impacts on natural plant communities, potentially inducing changes in plant physiology and the quantity and quality of floral rewards, especially nectar. Changes in nectar production can in turn strongly affect plant-pollinator interaction networks-pollinators may potentially benefit under moderate warming conditions, but suffer as resources reduce in availability as elevated temperatures become more extreme. Here, we studied the effect of elevated temperatures on nectar secretion of two Mediterranean Lamiaceae species-Ballota acetabulosa and Teucrium divaricatum. We measured nectar production (viz. volume per flower, sugar concentration per flower and sugar content per flower and per plant), number of open and empty flowers per plant, as well as biomass per flower under a range of temperatures selected ad hoc in a fully controlled climate chamber and under natural conditions outdoors. The average temperature in the climate chamber was increased every 3 days in 3 °C increments from 17.5 to 38.5 °C. Both study species showed a unimodal response of nectar production (volume per flower, sugar content per flower and per plant) to temperature. Optimal temperature for sugar content per flower was 25-26 °C for B. acetabulosa and 29-33 °C for T. divaricatum. According to our results, moderate climate warming predicted for the next few decades could benefit nectar secretion in T. divaricatum as long as the plants are not water stressed, but have a moderate negative effect on B. acetabulosa. Nevertheless, strong warming as predicted by climate change models for the end of the 21st century is expected to reduce nectar secretion in both species and can thus significantly reduce available resources for both wild bees and honeybees in Mediterranean systems.}, }
@article {pmid26373877, year = {2015}, author = {Tanaka, A and Takahashi, K and Masutomi, Y and Hanasaki, N and Hijioka, Y and Shiogama, H and Yamanaka, Y}, title = {Adaptation pathways of global wheat production: Importance of strategic adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {14312}, pmid = {26373877}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Agricultural adaptation is necessary to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on crop yields and to maintain food production. However, few studies have assessed the course of adaptation along with the progress of climate change in each of the current major food producing countries. Adaptation pathways, which describe the temporal sequences of adaptations, are helpful for illustrating the timing and intensity of the adaptation required. Here we present adaptation pathways in the current major wheat-producing countries, based on sequential introduction of the minimum adaptation measures necessary to maintain current wheat yields through the 21st century. We considered two adaptation options: (i) expanding irrigation infrastructure; and (ii) switching crop varieties and developing new heat-tolerant varieties. We find that the adaptation pathways differ markedly among the countries. The adaptation pathways are sensitive to both the climate model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system, and the degree of sensitivity differs among countries. Finally, the negative impacts of climate change could be moderated by implementing adaptations steadily according to forecasts of the necessary future adaptations, as compared to missing the appropriate timing to implement adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid26372356, year = {2015}, author = {Lee, TY and Huang, JC and Lee, JY and Jien, SH and Zehetner, F and Kao, SJ}, title = {Magnified Sediment Export of Small Mountainous Rivers in Taiwan: Chain Reactions from Increased Rainfall Intensity under Global Warming.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e0138283}, pmid = {26372356}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {I 1396/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, mesh = {*Geologic Sediments ; *Global Warming ; *Rain ; *Rivers ; Taiwan ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Fluvial sediment export from small mountainous rivers in Oceania has global biogeochemical significance affecting the turnover rate and export of terrestrial carbon, which might be speeding up at the recognized conditions of increased rainfall intensity. In this study, the historical runoff and sediment export from 16 major rivers in Taiwan are investigated and separated into an early stage (1970-1989) and a recent stage (1990-2010) to illustrate the changes of both runoff and sediment export. The mean daily sediment export from Taiwan Island in the recent stage significantly increased by >80% with subtle increase in daily runoff, indicating more sediment being delivered to the ocean per unit of runoff in the recent stage. The medians of the runoff depth and sediment yield extremes (99.0-99.9 percentiles) among the 16 rivers increased by 6.5%-37% and 62%-94%, respectively, reflecting the disproportionately magnified response of sediment export to the increased runoff. Taiwan is facing increasing event rainfall intensity which has resulted in chain reactions on magnified runoff and sediment export responses. As the globe is warming, rainfall extremes, which are proved to be temperature-dependent, very likely intensify runoff and trigger more sediment associated hazards. Such impacts might occur globally because significant increases of high-intensity precipitation have been observed not only in Taiwan but over most land areas of the globe.}, }
@article {pmid26371310, year = {2015}, author = {Ferrenberg, S and Reed, SC and Belnap, J}, title = {Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {39}, pages = {12116-12121}, pmid = {26371310}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Bryophyta/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; Heterotrophic Processes/physiology ; Humans ; Lichens/physiology ; Models, Statistical ; Rain ; *Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; Utah ; }, abstract = {Biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface—are fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover. Although there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrust communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, our results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. This is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.}, }
@article {pmid26371017, year = {2015}, author = {Tong, MX and Hansen, A and Hanson-Easey, S and Cameron, S and Xiang, J and Liu, Q and Sun, Y and Weinstein, P and Han, GS and Williams, C and Bi, P}, title = {Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {11025-11036}, pmid = {26371017}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; Humans ; Population Growth ; Public Health ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world's population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China's current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country's capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future.}, }
@article {pmid26367278, year = {2016}, author = {Prieto-Torres, DA and Navarro-Sigüenza, AG and Santiago-Alarcon, D and Rojas-Soto, OR}, title = {Response of the endangered tropical dry forests to climate change and the role of Mexican Protected Areas for their conservation.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {364-379}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13090}, pmid = {26367278}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Mexico ; *Plants ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Assuming that co-distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM-based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of protected areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hot spots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate-change models suggested (in comparison with the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0-10.0% and 3.0-9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long-term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggest that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid26363606, year = {2015}, author = {Jin, J and Wang, X and Gao, Y}, title = {Gender differences in farmers' responses to climate change adaptation in Yongqiao District, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {538}, number = {}, pages = {942-948}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.027}, pmid = {26363606}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Agriculture/*methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Perception ; Sex Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {This study examines the gender differences in farmers' responses to climate change adaption in Yongqiao District, China. A random sampling technique was used to select 220 household heads, while descriptive statistics and binary logit models were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. We determine that male and female respondents are not significantly different in their knowledge and perceptions of climate change, but there is a gender difference in adopting climate change adaptation measures. Male-headed households are more likely to adopt new technology for water conservation and to increase investment in irrigation infrastructure. The research also indicates that the adaptation decisions of male and female heads are influenced by different sets of factors. The findings of this research help to elucidate the determinants of climate change adaptation decisions for male and female-headed households and the strategic interventions necessary for effective adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid26363549, year = {2016}, author = {Wang, LH and Chou, SZ and Fu, TP and Yang, CC}, title = {Perspective health promotion policy planning to adapt to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the Formosan Medical Association = Taiwan yi zhi}, volume = {115}, number = {7}, pages = {487-489}, doi = {10.1016/j.jfma.2015.06.002}, pmid = {26363549}, issn = {0929-6646}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Planning/*standards ; *Health Policy ; Health Promotion/*methods ; Humans ; Taiwan ; }, }
@article {pmid26360509, year = {2016}, author = {Abberton, M and Batley, J and Bentley, A and Bryant, J and Cai, H and Cockram, J and de Oliveira, AC and Cseke, LJ and Dempewolf, H and De Pace, C and Edwards, D and Gepts, P and Greenland, A and Hall, AE and Henry, R and Hori, K and Howe, GT and Hughes, S and Humphreys, M and Lightfoot, D and Marshall, A and Mayes, S and Nguyen, HT and Ogbonnaya, FC and Ortiz, R and Paterson, AH and Tuberosa, R and Valliyodan, B and Varshney, RK and Yano, M}, title = {Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics.}, journal = {Plant biotechnology journal}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {1095-1098}, pmid = {26360509}, issn = {1467-7652}, support = {BB/E006868/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BBS/E/G/00003002/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*genetics ; Food Supply/*methods ; Genetic Variation ; Genomics/*methods ; Plant Breeding/*methods ; }, abstract = {Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26359392, year = {2015}, author = {Meckling, J and Kelsey, N and Biber, E and Zysman, J}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. Winning coalitions for climate policy.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {349}, number = {6253}, pages = {1170-1171}, doi = {10.1126/science.aab1336}, pmid = {26359392}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid26359381, year = {2015}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. A cold, creeping menace.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {349}, number = {6253}, pages = {1152}, doi = {10.1126/science.349.6253.1152}, pmid = {26359381}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid26358050, year = {2015}, author = {Tognetti, R}, title = {Trees harvesting the clouds: fog nets threatened by climate change.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {35}, number = {9}, pages = {921-924}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpv086}, pmid = {26358050}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {Abies/*physiology ; *Forests ; Picea/*physiology ; *Water ; }, }
@article {pmid26354898, year = {2015}, author = {Li, HL and Wang, W and Mortimer, PE and Li, RQ and Li, DZ and Hyde, KD and Xu, JC and Soltis, DE and Chen, ZD}, title = {Large-scale phylogenetic analyses reveal multiple gains of actinorhizal nitrogen-fixing symbioses in angiosperms associated with climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {14023}, pmid = {26354898}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Magnoliopsida/classification/*genetics/*metabolism ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Nitrogen Fixation/*genetics ; *Phylogeny ; *Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Nitrogen is fundamental to all life forms and is also one of the most limiting of nutrients for plant growth. Several clades of angiosperms have developed symbiotic relationships with actinorhizal bacteria that fix atmospheric nitrogen and increase access to this nutrient. However, the evolutionary patterns of actinorhizal nitrogen-fixing symbioses remain unclear to date. Furthermore the underlying environmental pressures that led to the gain of symbiotic actinorhizal nitrogen fixation have never been investigated. Here, we present the most comprehensive genus-level phylogenetic analysis of the nitrogen-fixing angiosperms based on three plastid loci. We found that actinorhizal nitrogen-fixing species are distributed in nine distinct lineages. By dating the branching events, we determined that seven actinorhizal nitrogen-fixing lineages originated during the Late Cretaceous, and two more emerged during the Eocene. We put forward a hypothesis that multiple gains of actinorhizal nitrogen-fixing symbioses in angiosperms may have been associated with increased global temperatures and high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide during these two time periods, as well as the availability of open habitats with high light conditions. Our nearly complete genus-level time-tree for the nitrogen-fixing clade is a significant advance in understanding the evolutionary and ecological background of this important symbiosis between plants and bacteria.}, }
@article {pmid26354467, year = {2015}, author = {Gurney, KR and Romero-Lankao, P and Seto, KC and Hutyra, LR and Duren, R and Kennedy, C and Grimm, NB and Ehleringer, JR and Marcotullio, P and Hughes, S and Pincetl, S and Chester, MV and Runfola, DM and Feddema, JJ and Sperling, J}, title = {Climate change: Track urban emissions on a human scale.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {525}, number = {7568}, pages = {179-181}, pmid = {26354467}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Carbon Footprint/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Cities/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; City Planning/methods/trends ; Electricity ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; *Human Activities ; Methane/analysis ; Motor Vehicles/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid26352646, year = {2016}, author = {Klein, D and Wolf, C and Schulz, C and Weber-Blaschke, G}, title = {Environmental impacts of various biomass supply chains for the provision of raw wood in Bavaria, Germany, with focus on climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {539}, number = {}, pages = {45-60}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.087}, pmid = {26352646}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Forestry/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Germany ; Wood ; }, abstract = {Wood biomass is considered a renewable raw product, but the supply chain of wood biomass involves non-renewable energy inputs, and thus possibly entailing environmental impacts. The objective of this study was to analyze different environmental impacts (GHG emissions, without biogenic CO2; primary energy consumption, non-renewable; particulate matter) caused by the provision of forest biomass for the four main tree species in Bavaria using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) techniques. Based on forest growth simulations, a set of realistic forest biomass supply chains for Bavarian forestry conditions were modeled for the raw wood product system from site preparation to forest road and to plant/farm gate, respectively, analyzing the four different process groups: [A1] site preparation, [A2] site tending, [A3] biomass harvesting and [T] transport of biomass to plant/farm gate. Total GHG emissions of about 383,000tCO2-eq∗year(-1) (18.95kgCO2-eq∗m(-3)) are estimated for the Bavarian forestry sector (from site preparation to plant/farm gate) in the reference year 2013 indicating a share of 0.41% in the total GHG emissions of Bavaria. 0.035MJ of non-renewable energy has to be invested in order to provide 1MJ of woody biomass to plant/farm gate (267MJ∗m(-3)). One hundred and sixty six tons of particulate matter emissions per year are calculated for the Bavarian forestry sector in 2013 (0.008kgPM2.5-eq∗m(-3)). Our LCA results reveal that there is no single GHG emission value for raw wood but a broad range of possible GHG emissions for the Bavarian forestry. Most decisive parameters are forest road maintenance, biomass harvesting, forwarding and biomass transport, and GHG emissions are also notably influenced by tree species, age class, wood assortment and site quality. We recommend that environmental impact calculations should be implemented, for example in wood certification procedures as they are important key indicators for sustainable forest management.}, }
@article {pmid26351799, year = {2015}, author = {Khader, YS and Abdelrahman, M and Abdo, N and Al-Sharif, M and Elbetieha, A and Bakir, H and Alemam, R}, title = {Climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean countries: a systematic review.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {163-181}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2015-0013}, pmid = {26351799}, issn = {2191-0308}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern ; Africa, Northern ; Asia, Western ; *Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Mediterranean Region ; Middle East ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To summarize the existing knowledge of the impact of climate change on health from previous research in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) and identify knowledge and research gaps.<br><br>METHODS: Different databases were searched for relevant studies published in the region between 2000 and 2014. The review was limited to studies reporting the impacts of climate change on health or studying associations between meteorological parameters and well-defined human health outcomes.<br><br>RESULTS: This systematic review of 78 studies identified many knowledge and research gaps. Research linking climate change and health is scarce in the most vulnerable countries of the region. There is limited information regarding how changes in temperature, precipitation and other weather variables might affect the geographic range and incidence of mortality and morbidity from various diseases. Available research has many limitations and shortcomings that arise from inappropriate study designs, poor assessment of exposure and outcomes, questionable sources of data, lack of standardized methods, poor adjustment of confounders, limited geographical area studies, small sample sizes, poor statistical modeling and not testing for possible interactions between exposures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Research and information on the effect of climate change on health are limited. Longitudinal studies over extended periods of time that investigate the link between climate change and health are needed. There is a need for studies to be expanded to include more countries in the region and to include other environmental, social and economic factors that might affect the spread of the disease.}, }
@article {pmid26351797, year = {2015}, author = {Salvacion, AR and Pangga, IB and Cumagun, CJ}, title = {Assessment of mycotoxin risk on corn in the Philippines under current and future climate change conditions.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {135-142}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2015-0019}, pmid = {26351797}, issn = {2191-0308}, mesh = {Aflatoxins/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Food Contamination/*analysis ; Fumonisins/*analysis ; Humans ; Philippines ; Poisons/*analysis ; Risk Assessment ; Zea mays/*microbiology ; }, abstract = {This study attempts to assess the risk of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and fumonisins) contamination on corn in the Philippines under current and projected climate change conditions using fuzzy logic methodology based on the published range of temperature and rainfall conditions that favor mycotoxin development. Based on the analysis, projected climatic change will reduce the risk of aflatoxin contamination in the country due to increased rainfall. In the case of fumonisin contamination, most parts of the country are at a very high risk both under current conditions and the projected climate change conditions.}, }
@article {pmid26347558, year = {2015}, author = {Howard, R and Bell, I and Pike, DA}, title = {Tropical flatback turtle (Natator depressus) embryos are resilient to the heat of climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {218}, number = {Pt 20}, pages = {3330-3335}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.118778}, pmid = {26347558}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Embryo, Nonmammalian/*physiology ; Female ; *Hot Temperature ; Male ; Sex Ratio ; Turtles/*embryology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is threatening reproduction of many ectotherms by increasing nest temperatures, potentially making it more difficult for females to locate nest sites that provide suitable incubation regimes during embryonic development. Elevated nest temperatures could increase the incidence of embryonic mortality and/or maladaptive phenotypes. We investigated whether elevated nest temperatures reduce hatching success in tropical flatback turtles (Natator depressus) nesting in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia. Egg incubation treatments began at 29.5°C and progressively increased in temperature throughout incubation, up to maxima of 31, 32, 33, 34 and 35°C. Elevated nest temperatures did not reduce hatching success or hatchling body size relative to control temperatures (29.5°C), but did speed up embryonic development. A combination of sudden exposure to high temperatures during the first 2 weeks of incubation (>36°C for 48 h) and prolonged warming throughout incubation (from 29.5-35°C) did not reduce hatching success. We also recorded an unusually high pivotal sex-determining temperature in this flatback turtle population relative to other sea turtle populations: an equal ratio of male and female hatchlings is produced at ∼30.4°C. This adaptation may allow some flatback turtle populations to continue producing large numbers of hatchlings of both sexes under the most extreme climate change scenarios. Some tropical populations of nesting flatbacks may possess important adaptations to high-temperature incubation environments, which are not found in more southerly temperate populations.}, }
@article {pmid26346337, year = {2017}, author = {Matthews, J}, title = {Maintaining a politicised climate of opinion? Examining how political framing and journalistic logic combine to shape speaking opportunities in UK elite newspaper reporting of climate change.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {467-480}, doi = {10.1177/0963662515599909}, pmid = {26346337}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Journalism ; Logic ; *Newspapers as Topic ; *Politics ; *Public Opinion ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {This article explores the importance of issue politicisation and mediation for the reporting of climate change in UK elite newspapers. Specifically, this investigates how journalistic logic mediates political framing to produce commentaries on and discussion about climate change in the news. In analysing elite newspaper coverage over time in this case, the article shows that (1) various frames introduce the issue as a legitimate problem within coverage and that (2) the news stories these inform are opened to specific commentaries according to 'elite journalistic logic'. This configuration of coverage orders the speaking opportunities of established voices of science, politics and industry as well as those less established voices that enter to explain and qualify these elite accounts. The article concludes that the ingrained combination of issue politicisation and journalistic logic observed here will likely shape future elite reporting and those voices that it will include.}, }
@article {pmid26343460, year = {2016}, author = {Castellanos-Morales, G and Gámez, N and Castillo-Gámez, RA and Eguiarte, LE}, title = {Peripatric speciation of an endemic species driven by Pleistocene climate change: The case of the Mexican prairie dog (Cynomys mexicanus).}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {94}, number = {Pt A}, pages = {171-181}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2015.08.027}, pmid = {26343460}, issn = {1095-9513}, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change/history ; Cytochromes b/genetics ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Desert Climate ; *Genetic Speciation ; History, Ancient ; Mexico ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; *Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; Population Density ; Sciuridae/classification/*genetics ; }, abstract = {The hypothesis that endemic species could have originated by the isolation and divergence of peripheral populations of widespread species can be tested through the use of ecological niche models (ENMs) and statistical phylogeography. The joint use of these tools provides complementary perspectives on historical dynamics and allows testing hypotheses regarding the origin of endemic taxa. We used this approach to infer the historical processes that have influenced the origin of a species endemic to the Mexican Plateau (Cynomys mexicanus) and its divergence from a widespread ancestor (Cynomys ludovicianus), and to test whether this endemic species originated through peripatric speciation. We obtained genetic data for 295 individuals for two species of black-tailed prairie dogs (C. ludovicianus and C. mexicanus). Genetic data consisted of mitochondrial DNA sequences (cytochrome b and control region), and 10 nuclear microsatellite loci. We estimated dates of divergence between species and between lineages within each species and performed ecological niche modelling (Present, Last Glacial Maximum and Last Interglacial) to determine changes in the distribution range of both species during the Pleistocene. Finally, we used Bayesian inference methods (DIYABC) to test different hypotheses regarding the divergence and demographic history of these species. Data supported the hypothesis of the origin of C. mexicanus from a peripheral population isolated during the Pleistocene [∼230,000 years ago (0.1-0.43 Ma 95% HPD)], with a Pleistocene-Holocene (∼9,000-11,000 years ago) population expansion (∼10-fold increase in population size). We identified the presence of two possible refugia in the southern area of the distribution range of C. ludovicianus and another, consistent with the distribution range of C. mexicanus. Our analyses suggest that Pleistocene climate change had a strong impact in the distribution of these species, promoting peripatric speciation for the origin of C. mexicanus and lineage divergence within C. ludovicianus.}, }
@article {pmid26342535, year = {2015}, author = {Weston, KA and Robertson, BC}, title = {Population structure within an alpine archipelago: strong signature of past climate change in the New Zealand rock wren (Xenicus gilviventris).}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {18}, pages = {4778-4794}, doi = {10.1111/mec.13349}, pmid = {26342535}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Ecosystem ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Gene Flow ; *Genetics, Population ; Genotype ; Likelihood Functions ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Models, Genetic ; New Zealand ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; *Refugium ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Songbirds/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Naturally subdivided populations such as those occupying high-altitude habitat patches of the 'alpine archipelago' can provide significant insight into past biogeographical change and serve as useful models for predicting future responses to anthropogenic climate change. Among New Zealand's alpine taxa, phylogenetic studies support two major radiations: the first correlating with geological forces (Pliocene uplift) and the second with climatic processes (Pleistocene glaciations). The rock wren (Xenicus gilviventris) is a threatened alpine passerine belonging to the endemic New Zealand wren family (Acanthisittidae). Rock wren constitute a widespread, naturally fragmented population, occurring in patches of suitable habitat over c. 900 m in altitude throughout the length of the South Island, New Zealand. We investigated the relative role of historical geological versus climatic processes in shaping the genetic structure of rock wren (N = 134) throughout their range. Using microsatellites combined with nuclear and mtDNA sequence data, we identify a deep north-south divergence in rock wren (3.7 ± 0.5% at cytochrome b) consistent with the glacial refugia hypothesis whereby populations were restricted in isolated refugia during the Pleistocene c. 2 Ma. This is the first study of an alpine vertebrate to test and provide strong evidence for the glacial refugia hypothesis as an explanation for the low endemicity central zone known as the biotic 'gap' in the South Island of New Zealand.}, }
@article {pmid26342186, year = {2016}, author = {Osland, MJ and Enwright, NM and Day, RH and Gabler, CA and Stagg, CL and Grace, JB}, title = {Beyond just sea-level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {1-11}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13084}, pmid = {26342186}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Rain ; Temperature ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change-related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.}, }
@article {pmid26340076, year = {2015}, author = {McDonough, MM and Šumbera, R and Mazoch, V and Ferguson, AW and Phillips, CD and Bryja, J}, title = {Multilocus phylogeography of a widespread savanna-woodland-adapted rodent reveals the influence of Pleistocene geomorphology and climate change in Africa's Zambezi region.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {20}, pages = {5248-5266}, doi = {10.1111/mec.13374}, pmid = {26340076}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Africa, Southern ; Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis ; Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Female ; *Genetics, Population ; Geography ; Gerbillinae/classification/*genetics ; Haplotypes ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Spatial Analysis ; }, abstract = {Understanding historical influences of climate and physiographic barriers in shaping patterns of biodiversity remains limited for many regions of the world. For mammals of continental Africa, phylogeographic studies, particularly for West African lineages, implicate both geographic barriers and climate oscillations in shaping small mammal diversity. In contrast, studies for southern African species have revealed conflicting phylogenetic patterns for how mammalian lineages respond to both climate change and geologic events such as river formation, especially during the Pleistocene. However, these studies were often biased by limited geographic sampling or exclusively focused on large-bodied taxa. We exploited the broad southern African distribution of a savanna-woodland-adapted African rodent, Gerbilliscus leucogaster (bushveld gerbil) and generated mitochondrial, autosomal and sex chromosome data to quantify regional signatures of climatic and vicariant biogeographic phenomena. Results indicate the most recent common ancestor for all G. leucogaster lineages occurred during the early Pleistocene. We documented six divergent mitochondrial lineages that diverged ~0.270-0.100 mya, each of which was geographically isolated during periods characterized by alterations to the course of the Zambezi River and its tributaries as well as regional 'megadroughts'. Results demonstrate the presence of a widespread lineage exhibiting demographic expansion ~0.065-0.035 mya, a time that coincides with savanna-woodland expansion across southern Africa. A multilocus autosomal perspective revealed the influence of the Kafue River as a current barrier to gene flow and regions of secondary contact among divergent mitochondrial lineages. Our results demonstrate the importance of both climatic fluctuations and physiographic vicariance in shaping the distribution of southern African biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid26339554, year = {2015}, author = {Blake, JG and Loiselle, BA}, title = {Enigmatic declines in bird numbers in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador may be a consequence of climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {e1177}, pmid = {26339554}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Bird populations have declined in many parts of the world but most of those declines can be attributed to effects of human activities (e.g., habitat fragmentation); declines in areas unaffected by human activities are not common. We have been sampling bird populations at an undisturbed site in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador annually since 2001 using a combination of mist nets and direct observations on two 100-ha plots. Bird numbers fluctuated on both plots during the first 8 years but did not show a consistent pattern of change. Since about 2008, numbers of birds on both plots have declined; capture rates in 2014 were ∼40% less than at the start of the study and observation rates were ∼50% less. Both understory and canopy species declined in abundance. Overall, insectivores showed the most pronounced declines but declines varied among trophic groups. The period from 2008 onward also was a period of stronger La Niña events which, at this study site, are associated with increased rainfall. The mechanism for the declines is not known but likely reflects a combination of reduced reproductive success coupled with reduced survival associated with changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid26338531, year = {2015}, author = {Favé, MJ and Johnson, RA and Cover, S and Handschuh, S and Metscher, BD and Müller, GB and Gopalan, S and Abouheif, E}, title = {Past climate change on Sky Islands drives novelty in a core developmental gene network and its phenotype.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {183}, pmid = {26338531}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Animals ; Ants/*genetics/physiology ; Arizona ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Gene Regulatory Networks ; Genes, Developmental ; Genetics, Population ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: A fundamental and enduring problem in evolutionary biology is to understand how populations differentiate in the wild, yet little is known about what role organismal development plays in this process. Organismal development integrates environmental inputs with the action of gene regulatory networks to generate the phenotype. Core developmental gene networks have been highly conserved for millions of years across all animals, and therefore, organismal development may bias variation available for selection to work on. Biased variation may facilitate repeatable phenotypic responses when exposed to similar environmental inputs and ecological changes. To gain a more complete understanding of population differentiation in the wild, we integrated evolutionary developmental biology with population genetics, morphology, paleoecology and ecology. This integration was made possible by studying how populations of the ant species Monomorium emersoni respond to climatic and ecological changes across five 'Sky Islands' in Arizona, which are mountain ranges separated by vast 'seas' of desert. Sky Islands represent a replicated natural experiment allowing us to determine how repeatable is the response of M. emersoni populations to climate and ecological changes at the phenotypic, developmental, and gene network levels.<br><br>RESULTS: We show that a core developmental gene network and its phenotype has kept pace with ecological and climate change on each Sky Island over the last ~90,000 years before present (BP). This response has produced two types of evolutionary change within an ant species: one type is unpredictable and contingent on the pattern of isolation of Sky lsland populations by climate warming, resulting in slight changes in gene expression, organ growth, and morphology. The other type is predictable and deterministic, resulting in the repeated evolution of a novel wingless queen phenotype and its underlying gene network in response to habitat changes induced by climate warming.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our findings reveal dynamics of developmental gene network evolution in wild populations. This holds important implications: (1) for understanding how phenotypic novelty is generated in the wild; (2) for providing a possible bridge between micro- and macroevolution; and (3) for understanding how development mediates the response of organisms to past, and potentially, future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26336258, year = {2015}, author = {Ceccarelli, S and Rabinovich, JE}, title = {Global Climate Change Effects on Venezuela's Vulnerability to Chagas Disease is Linked to the Geographic Distribution of Five Triatomine Species.}, journal = {Journal of medical entomology}, volume = {52}, number = {6}, pages = {1333-1343}, doi = {10.1093/jme/tjv119}, pmid = {26336258}, issn = {0022-2585}, mesh = {Animals ; *Chagas Disease ; *Climate Change ; Geography, Medical ; Risk Assessment ; *Triatominae ; Venezuela ; }, abstract = {We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Stål, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50-70 yr.}, }
@article {pmid26336208, year = {2015}, author = {Leonel, BF and Koroiva, R and Hamada, N and Ferreira-Keppler, RL and Roque, FO}, title = {Potential Effects of Climate Change on Ecological Interaction Outcomes Between Two Disease-Vector Mosquitoes: A Mesocosm Experimental Study.}, journal = {Journal of medical entomology}, volume = {52}, number = {5}, pages = {866-872}, doi = {10.1093/jme/tjv068}, pmid = {26336208}, issn = {0022-2585}, mesh = {Aedes/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Animals ; Arboviruses/physiology ; Climate Change ; Culex/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Larva/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Longevity ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The objective of this study was to experimentally assess the effects of different climate change scenarios on the outcomes of interactions between Aedes aegypti (L.) and Culex quinquefasciatus (Say) (Diptera: Culicidae) larvae. The experimental design maintained a constant density of specimens while the proportion of the species in different experimental climate change scenarios varied. Our results indicate that survival of the two species was not affected, but larval development and pupation times decreased under elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentration and high air temperature. In climate change scenarios with both species together, the survival of Ae. aegypti increased and its larval development time decreased with increasing density of Cx. quinquefasciatus. This may be attributed to the effects of intraspecific competition being more significant than interspecific competition in Ae. aegypti. Our study also reveals that climatic changes may affect the patterns of interactions between Cx. quinquefasciatus and Ae. aegypti. Alterations in climatic conditions changed the response of context-dependent competition, indicating the importance of studies on how ecological interactions will be affected by projected future climatic change.}, }
@article {pmid26336179, year = {2015}, author = {Kortsch, S and Primicerio, R and Fossheim, M and Dolgov, AV and Aschan, M}, title = {Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {282}, number = {1814}, pages = {}, pmid = {26336179}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Food Chain ; Geography ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning.}, }
@article {pmid26336098, year = {2015}, author = {Zhang, J and Ren, W and An, P and Pan, Z and Wang, L and Dong, Z and He, D and Yang, J and Pan, S and Tian, H}, title = {Responses of Crop Water Use Efficiency to Climate Change and Agronomic Measures in the Semiarid Area of Northern China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e0137409}, pmid = {26336098}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; *Droughts ; Fertilizers ; *Water ; }, abstract = {It has long been concerned how crop water use efficiency (WUE) responds to climate change. Most of existing researches have emphasized the impact of single climate factor but have paid less attention to the effect of developed agronomic measures on crop WUE. Based on the long-term field observations/experiments data, we investigated the changing responses of crop WUE to climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and agronomic practices (fertilization and cropping patterns) in the semi-arid area of northern China (SAC) during two periods, 1983-1999 and 2000-2010 (drier and warmer). Our results suggest that crop WUE was an intrinsical system sensitive to climate change and agronomic measures. Crops tend to reach the maximum WUE (WUEmax) in warm-dry environment while reach the stable minimum WUE (WUEmin) in warm-wet environment, with a difference between WUEmax and WUEmin ranging from 29.0%-55.5%. Changes in temperature and precipitation in the past three decades jointly enhanced crop WUE by 8.1%-30.6%. Elevated fertilizer and rotation cropping would increase crop WUE by 5.6-11.0% and 19.5-92.9%, respectively. These results indicate crop has the resilience by adjusting WUE, which is not only able to respond to subsequent periods of favorable water balance but also to tolerate the drought stress, and reasonable agronomic practices could enhance this resilience. However, this capacity would break down under impact of climate changes and unconscionable agronomic practices (e.g. excessive N/P/K fertilizer or traditional continuous cropping). Based on the findings in this study, a conceptual crop WUE model is constructed to indicate the threshold of crop resilience, which could help the farmer develop appropriate strategies in adapting the adverse impacts of climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid26334285, year = {2015}, author = {Tait, PW and Hanna, EG}, title = {A Conceptual Framework for Planning Systemic Human Adaptation to Global Warming.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, pages = {10700-10722}, pmid = {26334285}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Global Warming ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Public Health/*methods ; }, abstract = {Human activity is having multiple, inter-related effects on ecosystems. Greenhouse gas emissions persisting along current trajectories threaten to significantly alter human society. At 0.85 °C of anthropogenic warming, deleterious human impacts are acutely evident. Additional warming of 0.5 °C-1.0 °C from already emitted CO2 will further intensify extreme heat and damaging storm events. Failing to sufficiently address this trend will have a heavy human toll directly and indirectly on health. Along with mitigation efforts, societal adaptation to a warmer world is imperative. Adaptation efforts need to be significantly upscaled to prepare society to lessen the public health effects of rising temperatures. Modifying societal behaviour is inherently complex and presents a major policy challenge. We propose a social systems framework for conceptualizing adaptation that maps out three domains within the adaptation policy landscape: acclimatisation, behavioural adaptation and technological adaptation, which operate at societal and personal levels. We propose that overlaying this framework on a systems approach to societal change planning methods will enhance governments' capacity and efficacy in strategic planning for adaptation. This conceptual framework provides a policy oriented planning assessment tool that will help planners match interventions to the behaviours being targeted for change. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the framework's application as a planning tool.}, }
@article {pmid26333202, year = {2015}, author = {Langham, GM and Schuetz, JG and Distler, T and Soykan, CU and Wilsey, C}, title = {Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e0135350}, pmid = {26333202}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; North America ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid26333072, year = {2015}, author = {Isaacs, D}, title = {Climate change: The moral role of paediatricians.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {51}, number = {9}, pages = {843-844}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.12990}, pmid = {26333072}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Morals ; *Physicians ; *Professional Role ; }, }
@article {pmid26332685, year = {2015}, author = {Meyer, WM and Eble, JA and Franklin, K and McManus, RB and Brantley, SL and Henkel, J and Marek, PE and Hall, WE and Olson, CA and McInroy, R and Bernal Loaiza, EM and Brusca, RC and Moore, W}, title = {Ground-Dwelling Arthropod Communities of a Sky Island Mountain Range in Southeastern Arizona, USA: Obtaining a Baseline for Assessing the Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e0135210}, pmid = {26332685}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {K12 GM000708/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; 5K12GM000708/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Arizona ; Arthropods/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Humidity ; Islands ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; United States ; }, abstract = {The few studies that have addressed past effects of climate change on species distributions have mostly focused on plants due to the rarity of historical faunal baselines. However, hyperdiverse groups like Arthropoda are vital to monitor in order to understand climate change impacts on biodiversity. This is the first investigation of ground-dwelling arthropod (GDA) assemblages along the full elevation gradient of a mountain range in the Madrean Sky Island Region, establishing a baseline for monitoring future changes in GDA biodiversity. To determine how GDA assemblages relate to elevation, season, abiotic variables, and corresponding biomes, GDA were collected for two weeks in both spring (May) and summer (September) 2011 in the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona, using pitfall traps at 66 sites in six distinct upland (non-riparian/non-wet canyon) biomes. Four arthropod taxa: (1) beetles (Coleoptera), (2) spiders (Araneae), (3) grasshoppers and crickets (Orthoptera), and (4) millipedes and centipedes (Myriapoda) were assessed together and separately to determine if there are similar patterns across taxonomic groups. We collected 335 species of GDA: 192/3793 (species/specimens) Coleoptera, 102/1329 Araneae, 25/523 Orthoptera, and 16/697 Myriapoda. GDA assemblages differed among all biomes and between seasons. Fifty-three percent (178 species) and 76% (254 species) of all GDA species were found in only one biome and during only one season, respectively. While composition of arthropod assemblages is tied to biome and season, individual groups do not show fully concordant patterns. Seventeen percent of the GDA species occurred only in the two highest-elevation biomes (Pine and Mixed Conifer Forests). Because these high elevation biomes are most threatened by climate change and they harbor a large percentage of unique arthropod species (11-25% depending on taxon), significant loss in arthropod diversity is likely in the Santa Catalina Mountains and other isolated mountain ranges in the Southwestern US.}, }
@article {pmid26331850, year = {2015}, author = {Lee, SY and Ryan, ME and Hamlet, AF and Palen, WJ and Lawler, JJ and Halabisky, M}, title = {Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e0136385}, pmid = {26331850}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Humans ; Hydrology/*methods ; Models, Statistical ; Models, Theoretical ; Northwestern United States ; Regression Analysis ; Seasons ; Soil/chemistry ; *Water Movements ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce wetland habitat availability for many species.}, }
@article {pmid26331624, year = {2016}, author = {Gagnon, P and Sheedy, C and Rousseau, AN and Bourgeois, G and Chouinard, G}, title = {Integrated assessment of climate change impact on surface runoff contamination by pesticides.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {559-571}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.1706}, pmid = {26331624}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Malus ; Pesticides/*analysis ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; Water Pollution, Chemical/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Pesticide transport by surface runoff depends on climate, agricultural practices, topography, soil characteristics, crop type, and pest phenology. To accurately assess the impact of climate change, these factors must be accounted for in a single framework by integrating their interaction and uncertainty. This article presents the development and application of a framework to assess the impact of climate change on pesticide transport by surface runoff in southern Québec (Canada) for the 1981-2040 period. The crop enemies investigated were: weeds for corn (Zea mays); and for apple orchard (Malus pumila), 3 insect pests (codling moth [Cydia pomonella], plum curculio [Conotrachelus nenuphar], and apple maggot [Rhagoletis pomonella]), 2 diseases (apple scab [Venturia inaequalis], and fire blight [Erwinia amylovora]). A total of 23 climate simulations, 19 sites, and 11 active ingredients were considered. The relationship between climate and phenology was accounted for by bioclimatic models of the Computer Centre for Agricultural Pest Forecasting (CIPRA) software. Exported loads of pesticides were evaluated at the edge-of-field scale using the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), simulating both hydrology and chemical transport. A stochastic model was developed to account for PRZM parameter uncertainty. Results of this study indicate that for the 2011-2040 period, application dates would be advanced from 3 to 7 days on average with respect to the 1981-2010 period. However, the impact of climate change on maximum daily rainfall during the application window is not statistically significant, mainly due to the high variability of extreme rainfall events. Hence, for the studied sites and crop enemies considered, climate change impact on pesticide transported in surface runoff is not statistically significant throughout the 2011-2040 period. Integr Environ Assess Managem 2016;12:559-571. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2015; Published 2015 SETAC.}, }
@article {pmid26322346, year = {2015}, author = {Richmond, R}, title = {Putting climate change on the agenda.}, journal = {Australian veterinary journal}, volume = {93}, number = {7}, pages = {N20}, pmid = {26322346}, issn = {1751-0813}, mesh = {Advisory Committees ; Animal Welfare ; Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*etiology ; *Disease Vectors ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Veterinarians ; }, }
@article {pmid26321880, year = {2015}, author = {Kuhn, JR and Berdyugina, SV}, title = {Global warming as a detectable thermodynamic marker of Earth-like extrasolar civilizations: the case for a telescope like Colossus.}, journal = {International journal of astrobiology}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {401-410}, pmid = {26321880}, issn = {1473-5504}, abstract = {Earth-like civilizations generate heat from the energy that they utilize. The thermal radiation from this heat can be a thermodynamic marker for civilizations. Here we model such planetary radiation on Earth-like planets and propose a strategy for detecting such an alien unintentional thermodynamic electromagnetic biomarker. We show that astronomical infrared (IR) civilization biomarkers may be detected within an interestingly large cosmic volume using a 70 m-class or larger telescope. In particular, the Colossus telescope with achievable coronagraphic and adaptive optics performance may reveal Earth-like civilizations from visible and IR photometry timeseries' taken during an exoplanetary orbit period. The detection of an alien heat signature will have far-ranging implications, but even a null result, given 70 m aperture sensitivity, could also have broad social implications.}, }
@article {pmid26321531, year = {2015}, author = {Peirson, W and Davey, E and Jones, A and Hadwen, W and Bishop, K and Beger, M and Capon, S and Fairweather, P and Creese, B and Smith, TF and Gray, L and Tomlinson, R}, title = {Opportunistic management of estuaries under climate change: A new adaptive decision-making framework and its practical application.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {163}, number = {}, pages = {214-223}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.08.021}, pmid = {26321531}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Decision Making ; *Ecosystem ; *Estuaries ; Government ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Ongoing coastal development and the prospect of severe climate change impacts present pressing estuary management and governance challenges. Robust approaches must recognise the intertwined social and ecological vulnerabilities of estuaries. Here, a new governance and management framework is proposed that recognises the integrated social-ecological systems of estuaries so as to permit transformative adaptation to climate change within these systems. The framework lists stakeholders and identifies estuarine uses and values. Goals are categorised that are specific to ecosystems, private property, public infrastructure, and human communities. Systematic adaptation management strategies are proposed with conceptual examples and associated governance approaches. Contrasting case studies are used to illustrate the practical application of these ideas. The framework will assist estuary managers worldwide to achieve their goals, minimise maladaptative responses, better identify competing interests, reduce stakeholder conflict and exploit opportunities for appropriate ecosystem restoration and sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid26318682, year = {2015}, author = {Muis, S and Güneralp, B and Jongman, B and Aerts, JC and Ward, PJ}, title = {Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {538}, number = {}, pages = {445-457}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.068}, pmid = {26318682}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries.}, }
@article {pmid26315893, year = {2015}, author = {Yeruham, E and Rilov, G and Shpigel, M and Abelson, A}, title = {Collapse of the echinoid Paracentrotus lividus populations in the Eastern Mediterranean--result of climate change?.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {13479}, pmid = {26315893}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Laboratories ; Mediterranean Sea ; Paracentrotus/*physiology ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The European purple sea urchin (Paracentrotus lividus) is considered to be a key herbivore throughout its distribution range--North-East Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. It was also abundant in its eastern distributional edge, on rocky habitats of the coastline of Israel, but its populations have recently collapsed, and today it is an extremely rare species in the region. Field and laboratory experiments, that were carried out in order to examine the impact of the recent sea surface temperature rise in the Eastern Mediterranean, showed massive urchin mortality when temperatures crossed 30.5 °C before reaching peak summer values. These results suggest that elevated seawater temperatures in recent years may be a main cause for the disappearance of P. lividus from the southeast Mediterranean Sea, which may indicate distributional range contraction in this region.}, }
@article {pmid26313181, year = {2015}, author = {Boullis, A and Francis, F and Verheggen, FJ}, title = {Climate Change and Tritrophic Interactions: Will Modifications to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Increase the Vulnerability of Herbivorous Insects to Natural Enemies?.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {277-286}, doi = {10.1093/ee/nvu019}, pmid = {26313181}, issn = {1938-2936}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; Gases/adverse effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Herbivory ; *Insecta/microbiology/parasitology/physiology/virology ; }, abstract = {Insects are highly dependent on odor cues released into the environment to locate conspecifics or food sources. This mechanism is particularly important for insect predators that rely on kairomones released by their prey to detect them. In the context of climate change and, more specifically, modifications in the gas composition of the atmosphere, chemical communication-mediating interactions between phytophagous insect pests, their host plants, and their natural enemies is likely to be impacted. Several reports have indicated that modifications to plants caused by elevated carbon dioxide and ozone concentrations might indirectly affect insect herbivores, with community-level modifications to this group potentially having an indirect influence on higher trophic levels. The vulnerability of agricultural insect pests toward their natural enemies under elevated greenhouse gases concentrations has been frequently reported, but conflicting results have been obtained. This literature review shows that the higher levels of carbon dioxide, as predicted for the coming century, do not enhance the abundance or efficiency of natural enemies to locate hosts or prey in most published studies. Increased ozone levels lead to modifications in herbivore-induced volatile organic compounds (VOCs) released by damaged plants, which may impact the attractiveness of these herbivores to the third trophic level. Furthermore, other oxidative gases (such as SO2 and NO2) tend to reduce the abundance of natural enemies. The impact of changes in atmospheric gas emissions on plant-insect and insect-insect chemical communication has been under-documented, despite the significance of these mechanisms in tritrophic interactions. We conclude by suggesting some further prospects on this topic of research yet to be investigated.}, }
@article {pmid26312211, year = {2015}, author = {O'Gorman, PA}, title = {Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change.}, journal = {Current climate change reports}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {49-59}, pmid = {26312211}, issn = {2198-6061}, abstract = {The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to better constrain the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to warming.}, }
@article {pmid26311584, year = {2015}, author = {Nerantzaki, SD and Giannakis, GV and Efstathiou, D and Nikolaidis, NP and Sibetheros, I&#x391; and Karatzas, GP and Zacharias, I}, title = {Modeling suspended sediment transport and assessing the impacts of climate change in a karstic Mediterranean watershed.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {538}, number = {}, pages = {288-297}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.092}, pmid = {26311584}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Geologic Sediments/*analysis ; Hydrology ; Mediterranean Region ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Mediterranean semi-arid watersheds are characterized by a climate type with long periods of drought and infrequent but high-intensity rainfalls. These factors lead to the formation of temporary flow tributaries which present flashy hydrographs with response times ranging from minutes to hours and high erosion rates with significant sediment transport. Modeling of suspended sediment concentration in such watersheds is of utmost importance due to flash flood phenomena, during which, large quantities of sediments and pollutants are carried downstream. The aim of this study is to develop a modeling framework for suspended sediment transport in a karstic watershed and assess the impact of climate change on flow, soil erosion and sediment transport in a hydrologically complex and intensively managed Mediterranean watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was coupled with a karstic flow and suspended sediment model in order to simulate the hydrology and sediment yield of the karstic springs and the whole watershed. Both daily flow data (2005-2014) and monthly sediment concentration data (2011-2014) were used for model calibration. The results showed good agreement between observed and modeled values for both flow and sediment concentration. Flash flood events account for 63-70% of the annual sediment export depending on a wet or dry year. Simulation results for a set of IPCC "A1B" climate change scenarios suggested that major decreases in surface flow (69.6%) and in the flow of the springs (76.5%) take place between the 2010-2049 and 2050-2090 time periods. An assessment of the future ecological flows revealed that the frequency of minimum flow events increases over the years. The trend of surface sediment export during these periods is also decreasing (54.5%) but the difference is not statistically significant due to the variability of the sediment. On the other hand, sediment originating from the springs is not affected significantly by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26311135, year = {2015}, author = {Ravenscroft, CH and Whitlock, R and Fridley, JD}, title = {Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {4165-4176}, pmid = {26311135}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; England ; Festuca/*genetics ; Plantago/*genetics ; *Polymorphism, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long-term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community-level responses to long-term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL.}, }
@article {pmid26308853, year = {2015}, author = {Cauvy-Fraunié, S and Espinosa, R and Andino, P and Jacobsen, D and Dangles, O}, title = {Invertebrate Metacommunity Structure and Dynamics in an Andean Glacial Stream Network Facing Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e0136793}, pmid = {26308853}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Argentina ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Ice Cover ; Invertebrates/classification/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Under the ongoing climate change, understanding the mechanisms structuring the spatial distribution of aquatic species in glacial stream networks is of critical importance to predict the response of aquatic biodiversity in the face of glacier melting. In this study, we propose to use metacommunity theory as a conceptual framework to better understand how river network structure influences the spatial organization of aquatic communities in glacierized catchments. At 51 stream sites in an Andean glacierized catchment (Ecuador), we sampled benthic macroinvertebrates, measured physico-chemical and food resource conditions, and calculated geographical, altitudinal and glaciality distances among all sites. Using partial redundancy analysis, we partitioned community variation to evaluate the relative strength of environmental conditions (e.g., glaciality, food resource) vs. spatial processes (e.g., overland, watercourse, and downstream directional dispersal) in organizing the aquatic metacommunity. Results revealed that both environmental and spatial variables significantly explained community variation among sites. Among all environmental variables, the glacial influence component best explained community variation. Overland spatial variables based on geographical and altitudinal distances significantly affected community variation. Watercourse spatial variables based on glaciality distances had a unique significant effect on community variation. Within alpine catchment, glacial meltwater affects macroinvertebrate metacommunity structure in many ways. Indeed, the harsh environmental conditions characterizing glacial influence not only constitute the primary environmental filter but also, limit water-borne macroinvertebrate dispersal. Therefore, glacier runoff acts as an aquatic dispersal barrier, isolating species in headwater streams, and preventing non-adapted species to colonize throughout the entire stream network. Under a scenario of glacier runoff decrease, we expect a reduction in both environmental filtering and dispersal limitation, inducing a taxonomic homogenization of the aquatic fauna in glacierized catchments as well as the extinction of specialized species in headwater groundwater and glacier-fed streams, and consequently an irreversible reduction in regional diversity.}, }
@article {pmid26307808, year = {2014}, author = {Kjellstrom, T and Lemke, B and Hyatt, O and Otto, M}, title = {Climate change and occupational health: A South African perspective.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {104}, number = {8}, pages = {586}, doi = {10.7196/samj.8646}, pmid = {26307808}, issn = {0256-9574}, }
@article {pmid26307807, year = {2014}, author = {Bowles, DC and Butler, CD}, title = {Socially, politically and economically mediated health effects of climate change: Possible consequences for Africa.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {104}, number = {8}, pages = {585}, doi = {10.7196/samj.8604}, pmid = {26307807}, issn = {0256-9574}, }
@article {pmid26307806, year = {2014}, author = {Garland, RM}, title = {National policy response to climate change in South Africa.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {104}, number = {8}, pages = {584}, doi = {10.7196/samj.8605}, pmid = {26307806}, issn = {0256-9574}, }
@article {pmid26307805, year = {2014}, author = {Abayomi, A and Cowan, MN}, title = {The HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa: Convergence with tuberculosis, socioecological vulnerability, and climate change patterns.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {104}, number = {8}, pages = {583}, doi = {10.7196/samj.8645}, pmid = {26307805}, issn = {0256-9574}, }
@article {pmid26307803, year = {2014}, author = {Wright, CY and Norval, M}, title = {Climate change: One of the greatest threats to public health in the 21st century.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {104}, number = {8}, pages = {578}, doi = {10.7196/samj.8606}, pmid = {26307803}, issn = {0256-9574}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Public Health ; South Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid26306828, year = {2015}, author = {Luo, Y and Chen, HYH}, title = {Climate change-associated tree mortality increases without decreasing water availability.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {18}, number = {11}, pages = {1207-1215}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12500}, pmid = {26306828}, issn = {1461-0248}, abstract = {Temporal increases of tree mortality have been observed in regions where global warming has decreased long-term water availability and/or induced droughts. However, temporal decreases in water availability are not a global phenomenon. Understanding how water deficit-free forests respond to the recent effects of climate change is paramount towards a full appreciation of the impacts of climate change on global forests. Here, we reveal temporally increasing tree mortality across all study species over the last three decades in the central boreal forests of Canada, where long-term water availability has increased without apparent climate change-associated drought. In addition, we find that the effects of conspecific tree-to-tree competition have intensified temporally as a mechanism for the increased mortality of shade-intolerant tree species. Our results suggest that the consequences of climate change on tree mortality are more profound than previously thought.}, }
@article {pmid26306792, year = {2016}, author = {Kongsager, R and Locatelli, B and Chazarin, F}, title = {Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {57}, number = {2}, pages = {271-282}, pmid = {26306792}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forestry/*methods ; }, abstract = {Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37% of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90%) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid26305483, year = {2015}, author = {Chiroma, H and Abdul-kareem, S and Khan, A and Nawi, NM and Gital, AY and Shuib, L and Abubakar, AI and Rahman, MZ and Herawan, T}, title = {Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e0136140}, pmid = {26305483}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Algorithms ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Neural Networks, Computer ; *Petroleum ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research.<br><br>METHODS/FINDINGS: The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods.<br><br>CONCLUSION: An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.}, }
@article {pmid26302149, year = {2016}, author = {Alexeeff, SE and Pfister, GG and Nychka, D}, title = {A Bayesian model for quantifying the change in mortality associated with future ozone exposures under climate change.}, journal = {Biometrics}, volume = {72}, number = {1}, pages = {281-288}, pmid = {26302149}, issn = {1541-0420}, support = {T32 ES007142/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollution/analysis/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Bayes Theorem ; Climate Change/*mortality/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Computer Simulation ; Data Interpretation, Statistical ; Environmental Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Incidence ; Models, Statistical ; Ozone/*analysis ; Reproducibility of Results ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; *Survival Analysis ; Survival Rate ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have many impacts on the environment, including changes in ozone concentrations at the surface level. A key public health concern is the potential increase in ozone-related summertime mortality if surface ozone concentrations rise in response to climate change. Although ozone formation depends partly on summertime weather, which exhibits considerable inter-annual variability, previous health impact studies have not incorporated the variability of ozone into their prediction models. A major source of uncertainty in the health impacts is the variability of the modeled ozone concentrations. We propose a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo estimation method for quantifying health effects of future ozone. An advantage of this approach is that we include the uncertainty in both the health effect association and the modeled ozone concentrations. Using our proposed approach, we quantify the expected change in ozone-related summertime mortality in the contiguous United States between 2000 and 2050 under a changing climate. The mortality estimates show regional patterns in the expected degree of impact. We also illustrate the results when using a common technique in previous work that averages ozone to reduce the size of the data, and contrast these findings with our own. Our analysis yields more realistic inferences, providing clearer interpretation for decision making regarding the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26295936, year = {2015}, author = {Hua, S and Liang, J and Zeng, G and Xu, M and Zhang, C and Yuan, Y and Li, X and Li, P and Liu, J and Huang, L}, title = {How to manage future groundwater resource of China under climate change and urbanization: An optimal stage investment design from modern portfolio theory.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {85}, number = {}, pages = {31-37}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2015.08.007}, pmid = {26295936}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation/*economics/methods ; *Groundwater ; Investments/*economics ; Uncertainty ; *Urbanization ; Water Pollution, Chemical/economics ; *Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Groundwater management in China has been facing challenges from both climate change and urbanization and is considered as a national priority nowadays. However, unprecedented uncertainty exists in future scenarios making it difficult to formulate management planning paradigms. In this paper, we apply modern portfolio theory (MPT) to formulate an optimal stage investment of groundwater contamination remediation in China. This approach generates optimal weights of investment to each stage of the groundwater management and helps maximize expected return while minimizing overall risk in the future. We find that the efficient frontier of investment displays an upward-sloping shape in risk-return space. The expected value of groundwater vulnerability index increases from 0.6118 to 0.6230 following with the risk of uncertainty increased from 0.0118 to 0.0297. If management investment is constrained not to exceed certain total cost until 2050 year, the efficient frontier could help decision makers make the most appropriate choice on the trade-off between risk and return.}, }
@article {pmid26295478, year = {2015}, author = {Penaluna, BE and Dunham, JB and Railsback, SF and Arismendi, I and Johnson, SL and Bilby, RE and Safeeq, M and Skaugset, AE}, title = {Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e0135334}, pmid = {26295478}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Models, Statistical ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Trout/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26295247, year = {2015}, author = {Akin, SM and Martens, P and Huynen, MM}, title = {Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {9726-9749}, pmid = {26295247}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Netherlands ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.}, }
@article {pmid26294226, year = {2015}, author = {Zhu, L and Lü, X and Wang, J and Peng, P and Kasper, T and Daut, G and Haberzettl, T and Frenzel, P and Li, Q and Yang, R and Schwalb, A and Mäusbacher, R}, title = {Climate change on the Tibetan Plateau in response to shifting atmospheric circulation since the LGM.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {13318}, pmid = {26294226}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is primarily influenced by the northern hemispheric middle latitude Westerlies and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The extent, long-distance effects and potential long-term changes of these two atmospheric circulations are not yet fully understood. Here, we analyse modern airborne pollen in a transition zone of seasonally alternating dominance of the Westerlies and the ISM to develop a pollen discrimination index (PDI) that allows us to distinguish between the intensities of the two circulation systems. This index is applied to interpret a continuous lacustrine sedimentary record from Lake Nam Co covering the past 24 cal kyr BP to investigate long-term variations in the atmospheric circulation systems. Climatic variations on the central TP widely correspond to those of the North Atlantic (NA) realm, but are controlled through different mechanisms resulting from the changing climatic conditions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). During the LGM, until 16.5 cal kyr BP, the TP was dominated by the Westerlies. After 16.5 cal kyr BP, the climatic conditions were mainly controlled by the ISM. From 11.6 to 9 cal kyr BP, the TP was exposed to enhanced solar radiation at the low latitudes, resulting in greater water availability.}, }
@article {pmid26293893, year = {2015}, author = {Kara, F and Yucel, I}, title = {Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {187}, number = {9}, pages = {580}, pmid = {26293893}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Floods ; *Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Turkey ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.}, }
@article {pmid26293204, year = {2015}, author = {Grandey, BS and Wang, C}, title = {Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {13055}, pmid = {26293204}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; *Global Warming ; *Rain ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Sulfides/analysis ; Sulfur/*analysis ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.}, }
@article {pmid26292214, year = {2015}, author = {Pelini, SL and Maran, AM and Chen, AR and Kaseman, J and Crowther, TW}, title = {Higher Trophic Levels Overwhelm Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystem Functioning.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e0136344}, pmid = {26292214}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Cell Respiration ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Invertebrates/metabolism ; *Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Forest floor food webs play pivotal roles in carbon cycling, but they are rarely considered in models of carbon fluxes, including soil carbon dioxide emissions (respiration), under climatic warming. The indirect effects of invertebrates on heterotrophic (microbial and invertebrate) respiration through interactions with microbial communities are significant and will be altered by warming. However, the interactive effects of invertebrates and warming on heterotrophic respiration in the field are poorly understood. In this study we combined field and common garden laboratory approaches to examine relationships between warming, forest floor food web structure, and heterotrophic respiration. We found that soil animals can overwhelm the effects of warming (to 5 degrees Celsius above ambient) on heterotrophic respiration. In particular, the presence of higher trophic levels and burrowing detritivores strongly determined heterotrophic respiration rates in temperate forest soils. These effects were, however, context-dependent, with greater effects in a lower-latitude site. Without isolating and including the significant impact of invertebrates, climate models will be incomplete, hindering well-informed policy decisions.}, }
@article {pmid26291877, year = {2015}, author = {Cody, EM and Reagan, AJ and Mitchell, L and Dodds, PS and Danforth, CM}, title = {Climate Change Sentiment on Twitter: An Unsolicited Public Opinion Poll.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e0136092}, pmid = {26291877}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disasters ; Global Warming ; Happiness ; Humans ; *Public Opinion ; Social Media/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.}, }
@article {pmid26290559, year = {2015}, author = {Ensslin, A and Fischer, M}, title = {Variation in life-history traits and their plasticities to elevational transplantation among seed families suggests potential for adaptative evolution of 15 tropical plant species to climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {102}, number = {8}, pages = {1371-1379}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1400518}, pmid = {26290559}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Altitude ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Magnoliopsida/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Seeds ; Tanzania ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: •<br><br>PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Because not all plant species will be able to move in response to global warming, adaptive evolution matters largely for plant persistence. As prerequisites for adaptive evolution, genetic variation in and selection on phenotypic traits are needed, but these aspects have not been studied in tropical species. We studied how plants respond to transplantation to different elevations on Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, and whether there is quantitative genetic (among-seed family) variation in and selection on life-history traits and their phenotypic plasticity to the different environments.&#x2022;<br><br>METHODS: We reciprocally transplanted seed families of 15 common tropical, herbaceous species of the montane and savanna vegetation zone at Mt. Kilimanjaro to a watered experimental garden in the montane (1450 m) and in the savanna (880 m) zone at the mountain's slope and measured performance, reproductive, and phenological traits.&#x2022;<br><br>RESULTS: Plants generally performed worse in the savanna garden, indicating that the savanna climate was more stressful and thus that plants may suffer from future climate warming. We found significant quantitative genetic variation in all measured performance and reproductive traits in both gardens and for several measures of phenotypic plasticity in response to elevational transplantation. Moreover, we found positive selection on traits at low and intermediate trait values levelling to neutral or negative selection at high values.&#x2022;<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that common plants at Mt. Kilimanjaro express quantitative genetic variation in fitness-relevant traits and in their plasticities, suggesting potential to adapt evolutionarily to future climate warming and increased temperature variability.}, }
@article {pmid26290471, year = {2015}, author = {Robbins, A}, title = {Climate change: Assessing effects on health and wealth of populations.}, journal = {Journal of public health policy}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {381-383}, pmid = {26290471}, issn = {1745-655X}, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid26290168, year = {2015}, author = {Darby, SE and Dunn, FE and Nicholls, RJ and Rahman, M and Riddy, L}, title = {A first look at the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the future delivery of fluvial sediment to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {17}, number = {9}, pages = {1587-1600}, doi = {10.1039/c5em00252d}, pmid = {26290168}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Geologic Sediments/*analysis ; India ; Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; Temperature ; Water Pollution/analysis/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {We employ a climate-driven hydrological water balance and sediment transport model (HydroTrend) to simulate future climate-driven sediment loads flowing into the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) mega-delta. The model was parameterised using high-quality topographic data and forced with daily temperature and precipitation data obtained from downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the period 1971-2100. Three perturbed RCM model runs were selected to quantify the potential range of future climate conditions associated with the SRES A1B scenario. Fluvial sediment delivery rates to the GBM delta associated with these climate data sets are projected to increase under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, albeit with the magnitude of the increase varying across the two catchments. Of the two study basins, the Brahmaputra's fluvial sediment load is predicted to be more sensitive to future climate change. Specifically, by the middle part of the 21(st) century, our model results suggest that sediment loads increase (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline period) over a range of between 16% and 18% (depending on climate model run) for the Ganges, but by between 25% and 28% for the Brahmaputra. The simulated increase in sediment flux emanating from the two catchments further increases towards the end of the 21(st) century, reaching between 34% and 37% for the Ganges and between 52% and 60% for the Brahmaputra by the 2090s. The variability in these changes across the three climate change simulations is small compared to the changes, suggesting they represent a significant increase. The new data obtained in this study offer the first estimate of whether and how anthropogenic climate change may affect the delivery of fluvial sediment to the GBM delta, informing assessments of the future sustainability and resilience of one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas. Specifically, such significant increases in future sediment loads could increase the resilience of the delta to sea-level rise by giving greater potential for vertical accretion. However, these increased sediment fluxes may not be realised due to uncertainties in the monsoon related response to climate change or other human-induced changes in the catchment: this is a subject for further research.}, }
@article {pmid26290072, year = {2015}, author = {Levy, O and Buckley, LB and Keitt, TH and Smith, CD and Boateng, KO and Kumar, DS and Angilletta, MJ}, title = {Resolving the life cycle alters expected impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {282}, number = {1813}, pages = {20150837}, pmid = {26290072}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; Embryonic Development ; Extinction, Biological ; *Hot Temperature ; Lizards/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Longevity ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Recent models predict contrasting impacts of climate change on tropical and temperate species, but these models ignore how environmental stress and organismal tolerance change during the life cycle. For example, geographical ranges and extinction risks have been inferred from thermal constraints on activity during the adult stage. Yet, most animals pass through a sessile embryonic stage before reaching adulthood, making them more susceptible to warming climates than current models would suggest. By projecting microclimates at high spatio-temporal resolution and measuring thermal tolerances of embryos, we developed a life cycle model of population dynamics for North American lizards. Our analyses show that previous models dramatically underestimate the demographic impacts of climate change. A predicted loss of fitness in 2% of the USA by 2100 became 35% when considering embryonic performance in response to hourly fluctuations in soil temperature. Most lethal events would have been overlooked if we had ignored thermal stress during embryonic development or had averaged temperatures over time. Therefore, accurate forecasts require detailed knowledge of environmental conditions and thermal tolerances throughout the life cycle.}, }
@article {pmid26289351, year = {2016}, author = {Wu, J}, title = {Detecting and Attributing the Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of Snake Species Over the Past 50 Years.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, pages = {207-219}, pmid = {26289351}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; China ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Snakes/*classification/*physiology ; }, abstract = {It is unclear whether the distributions of snakes have changed in association with climate change over the past years. We detected the distribution changes of snakes over the past 50 years and determined whether the changes could be attributed to recent climate change in China. Long-term records of the distribution of nine snake species in China, grey relationship analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques, the consistency index, and attributed methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of snake species have changed in multiple directions, primarily shifting northwards, and most of the changes were related to the thermal index. Driven by climatic factors over the past 50 years, the distribution boundary and distribution centers of some species changed with the fluctuations. The observed and predicted changes in distribution were highly consistent for some snake species. The changes in the northern limits of distributions of nearly half of the species, as well as the southern and eastern limits, and the distribution centers of some snake species can be attributed to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26285405, year = {2015}, author = {Adlong, W and Dietsch, E}, title = {Nursing and climate change: An emerging connection.}, journal = {Collegian (Royal College of Nursing, Australia)}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {19-24}, doi = {10.1016/j.colegn.2013.10.003}, pmid = {26285405}, issn = {1322-7696}, mesh = {Attitude of Health Personnel ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; Nursing Staff/*psychology ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Awareness of the importance of climate change to public health has been growing. Calls for health professionals, including nurses, to take action to prepare for, and mitigate, climate change have been coming from a number of credible sources. This paper will assist nurses to recognise the health consequences of climate change, to generate and disseminate knowledge about these health consequences, to be active in mitigating emissions locally and within their organisations and to advocate and have input into policy processes. It is valuable for nurses to understand the health co-benefits of emission mitigation and the current health costs of fossil fuels. As advocates for evidence-based public health initiatives, nurses have a role to play in communicating to the public and to policy makers accurate information, including about the health costs of fossil fuel policies and the affordability of renewable energy technologies.}, }
@article {pmid26282744, year = {2015}, author = {Iyalomhe, F and Rizzi, J and Pasini, S and Torresan, S and Critto, A and Marcomini, A}, title = {Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {537}, number = {}, pages = {100-114}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.06.111}, pmid = {26282744}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems.}, }
@article {pmid26281275, year = {2015}, author = {Allen, PJ}, title = {Climate Change: It's Our Problem.}, journal = {Pediatric nursing}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {42-46}, pmid = {26281275}, issn = {0097-9805}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; *Pediatric Nursing ; }, }
@article {pmid26276111, year = {2015}, author = {Steven, B and Kuske, CR and Gallegos-Graves, LV and Reed, SC and Belnap, J}, title = {Climate change and physical disturbance manipulations result in distinct biological soil crust communities.}, journal = {Applied and environmental microbiology}, volume = {81}, number = {21}, pages = {7448-7459}, pmid = {26276111}, issn = {1098-5336}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Biota ; *Climate Change ; *Hydrostatic Pressure ; Rain ; *Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) colonize plant interspaces in many drylands and are critical to soil nutrient cycling. Multiple climate change and land use factors have been shown to detrimentally impact biocrusts on a macroscopic (i.e., visual) scale. However, the impact of these perturbations on the bacterial components of the biocrusts remains poorly understood. We employed multiple long-term field experiments to assess the impacts of chronic physical (foot trampling) and climatic changes (2°C soil warming, altered summer precipitation [wetting], and combined warming and wetting) on biocrust bacterial biomass, composition, and metabolic profile. The biocrust bacterial communities adopted distinct states based on the mechanism of disturbance. Chronic trampling decreased biomass and caused small community compositional changes. Soil warming had little effect on biocrust biomass or composition, while wetting resulted in an increase in the cyanobacterial biomass and altered bacterial composition. Warming combined with wetting dramatically altered bacterial composition and decreased Cyanobacteria abundance. Shotgun metagenomic sequencing identified four functional gene categories that differed in relative abundance among the manipulations, suggesting that climate and land use changes affected soil bacterial functional potential. This study illustrates that different types of biocrust disturbance damage biocrusts in macroscopically similar ways, but they differentially impact the resident soil bacterial communities, and the communities' functional profiles can differ depending on the disturbance type. Therefore, the nature of the perturbation and the microbial response are important considerations for management and restoration of drylands.}, }
@article {pmid26275399, year = {2015}, author = {Ren, G and Conti, E and Salamin, N}, title = {Phylogeny and biogeography of Primula sect. Armerina: implications for plant evolution under climate change and the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {15}, number = {}, pages = {161}, pmid = {26275399}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; Cell Nucleus/genetics ; China ; Chloroplasts/genetics ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Phylogeny ; *Phylogeography ; Primula/*classification/*genetics ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The historical orogenesis and associated climatic changes of mountain areas have been suggested to partly account for the occurrence of high levels of biodiversity and endemism. However, their effects on dispersal, differentiation and evolution of many groups of plants are still unknown. In this study, we examined the detailed diversification history of Primula sect. Armerina, and used biogeographic analysis and macro-evolutionary modeling to investigate a series of different questions concerning the evolution of the geographical and ecological distribution of the species in this section.<br><br>RESULTS: We sequenced five chloroplast and one nuclear genes for species of Primula sect. Armerina. Neither chloroplast nor nuclear trees support the monophyly of the section. The major incongruences between the two trees occur among closely related species and may be explained by hybridization. Our dating analyses based on the chloroplast dataset suggest that this section began to diverge from its relatives around 3.55 million years ago, largely coinciding with the last major uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Biogeographic analysis supports the origin of the section in the Himalayan Mountains and dispersal from the Himalayas to Northeastern QTP, Western QTP and Hengduan Mountains. Furthermore, evolutionary models of ecological niches show that the two P. fasciculata clades have significantly different climatic niche optima and rates of niche evolution, indicating niche evolution under climatic changes and further providing evidence for explaining their biogeographic patterns.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our results support the hypothesis that geologic and climatic events play important roles in driving biological diversification of organisms in the QTP area. The Pliocene uplift of the QTP and following climatic changes most likely promoted both the inter- and intraspecific divergence of Primula sect. Armerina. This study also illustrates how niche evolution under climatic changes influences biogeographic patterns.}, }
@article {pmid26273042, year = {2015}, author = {Trenberth, KE}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. Has there been a hiatus?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {349}, number = {6249}, pages = {691-692}, doi = {10.1126/science.aac9225}, pmid = {26273042}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid26270669, year = {2015}, author = {Petkova, EP and Ebi, KL and Culp, D and Redlener, I}, title = {Climate Change and Health on the U.S. Gulf Coast: Public Health Adaptation is Needed to Address Future Risks.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {9342-9356}, pmid = {26270669}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Gulf of Mexico ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk ; United States ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on human health have been documented globally and in the United States. Numerous studies project greater morbidity and mortality as a result of extreme weather events and other climate-sensitive hazards. Public health impacts on the U.S. Gulf Coast may be severe as the region is expected to experience increases in extreme temperatures, sea level rise, and possibly fewer but more intense hurricanes. Through myriad pathways, climate change is likely to make the Gulf Coast less hospitable and more dangerous for its residents, and may prompt substantial migration from and into the region. Public health impacts may be further exacerbated by the concentration of people and infrastructure, as well as the region's coastal geography. Vulnerable populations, including the very young, elderly, and socioeconomically disadvantaged may face particularly high threats to their health and well-being. This paper provides an overview of potential public health impacts of climate variability and change on the Gulf Coast, with a focus on the region's unique vulnerabilities, and outlines recommendations for improving the region's ability to minimize the impacts of climate-sensitive hazards. Public health adaptation aimed at improving individual, public health system, and infrastructure resilience is urgently needed to meet the challenges climate change may pose to the Gulf Coast in the coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid26270656, year = {2015}, author = {Tan, L and Cai, Y and An, Z and Cheng, H and Shen, CC and Breitenbach, SF and Gao, Y and Edwards, RL and Zhang, H and Du, Y}, title = {A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {12284}, pmid = {26270656}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; *Caves ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Social Change ; }, abstract = {The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520-1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ(18)O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ(18)O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.}, }
@article {pmid26267494, year = {2015}, author = {Caldwell, AJ and While, GM and Beeton, NJ and Wapstra, E}, title = {Potential for thermal tolerance to mediate climate change effects on three members of a cool temperate lizard genus, Niveoscincus.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {52}, number = {}, pages = {14-23}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2015.05.002}, pmid = {26267494}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Environment ; Lizards/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; Survival Analysis ; Tasmania ; *Temperature ; Water Loss, Insensible/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climatic changes are predicted to be greater in higher latitude and mountainous regions but species specific impacts are difficult to predict. This is partly due to inter-specific variance in the physiological traits which mediate environmental temperature effects at the organismal level. We examined variation in the critical thermal minimum (CTmin), critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and evaporative water loss rates (EWL) of a widespread lowland (Niveoscincus ocellatus) and two range restricted highland (N. microlepidotus and N. greeni) members of a cool temperate Tasmanian lizard genus. The widespread lowland species had significantly higher CTmin and CTmax and significantly lower EWL than both highland species. Implications of inter-specific variation in thermal tolerance for activity were examined under contemporary and future climate change scenarios. Instances of air temperatures below CTmin were predicted to decline in frequency for the widespread lowland and both highland species. Air temperatures of high altitude sites were not predicted to exceed the CTmax of either highland species throughout the 21st century. In contrast, the widespread lowland species is predicted to experience air temperatures in excess of CTmax on 1 or 2 days by three of six global circulation models from 2068-2096. To estimate climate change effects on activity we reran the thermal tolerance models using minimum and maximum temperatures selected for activity. A net gain in available activity time was predicted under climate change for all three species; while air temperatures were predicted to exceed maximum temperatures selected for activity with increasing frequency, the change was not as great as the predicted decline in air temperatures below minimum temperatures selected for activity. We hypothesise that the major effect of rising air temperatures under climate change is an increase in available activity period for both the widespread lowland and highland species. The consequences of a greater available activity period will depend on the extent to which changes in climate alters other related factors, such as the nature and level of competition between the respective species.}, }
@article {pmid26267446, year = {2015}, author = {Seely, B and Welham, C and Scoullar, K}, title = {Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e0135034}, pmid = {26267446}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; *Food Chain ; *Forests ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.}, }
@article {pmid26266273, year = {2015}, author = {Halford, NG and Foyer, CH}, title = {Producing a road map that enables plants to cope with future climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {66}, number = {12}, pages = {3433-3434}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erv277}, pmid = {26266273}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; DNA Methylation ; Global Warming ; Hordeum/genetics ; *Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid26265710, year = {2017}, author = {Debrett, M}, title = {Representing climate change on public service television: A case study.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {452-466}, doi = {10.1177/0963662515597187}, pmid = {26265710}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; *Public Opinion ; *Television ; Trust ; }, abstract = {Publicly funded broadcasters with a track record in science programming would appear ideally placed to represent climate change to the lay public. Free from the constraints of vested interests and the economic imperative, public service providers are better equipped to represent the scientific, social and economic aspects of climate change than commercial media, where ownership conglomeration, corporate lobbyists and online competition have driven increasingly tabloid coverage with an emphasis on controversy. This prime-time snapshot of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's main television channel explores how the structural/rhetorical conventions of three established public service genres - a science programme, a documentary and a live public affairs talk show - impact on the representation of anthropogenic climate change. The study findings note implications for public trust, and discuss possibilities for innovation in the interests of better public understanding of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26263675, year = {2015}, author = {Anderson, SC and Moore, JW and McClure, MM and Dulvy, NK and Cooper, AB}, title = {Portfolio conservation of metapopulations under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {559-572}, doi = {10.1890/14-0266.1}, pmid = {26263675}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Salmon/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to lead to increasing population variability and extinction risk. Theoretically, greater population diversity should buffer against rising climate variability, and this theory is often invoked as a reason for greater conservation. However, this has rarely been quantified. Here we show how a portfolio approach to managing population diversity can inform metapopulation conservation priorities in a changing world. We develop a salmon metapopulation model in which productivity is driven by spatially distributed thermal tolerance and patterns of short- and long-term climate change. We then implement spatial conservation scenarios that control population carrying capacities and evaluate the metapopulation portfolios as a financial manager might: along axes of conservation risk and return. We show that preserving a diversity of thermal tolerances minimizes risk, given environmental stochasticity, and ensures persistence, given long-term environmental change. When the thermal tolerances of populations are unknown, doubling the number of populations conserved may nearly halve expected metapopulation variability. However, this reduction in variability can come at the expense of long-term persistence if climate change increasingly restricts available habitat, forcing ecological managers to balance society's desire for short-term stability and long-term viability. Our findings suggest the importance of conserving the processes that promote thermal-tolerance diversity, such as genetic diversity, habitat heterogeneity, and natural disturbance regimes, and demonstrate that diverse natural portfolios may be critical for metapopulation conservation in the face of increasing climate variability and change.}, }
@article {pmid26263673, year = {2015}, author = {Ryals, R and Hartman, MD and Parton, WJ and DeLonge, MS and Silver, WL}, title = {Long-term climate change mitigation potential with organic matter management on grasslands.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {531-545}, doi = {10.1890/13-2126.1}, pmid = {26263673}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; *Poaceae ; Reproducibility of Results ; Soil ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Compost amendments to grasslands have been proposed as a strategy to mitigate climate change through carbon (C) sequestration, yet little research exists exploring the net mitigation potential or the long-term impacts of this strategy. We used field data and the DAYCENT biogeochemical model to investigate the climate change mitigation potential of compost amendments to grasslands in California, USA. The model was used to test ecosystem C and greenhouse gas responses to a range of compost qualities (carbon to nitrogen [C:N] ratios of 11.1, 20, or 30) and application rates (single addition of 14 Mg C/ha or 10 annual additions of 1.4 Mg C · ha(-1) · yr(-1)). The model was parameterized using site-specific weather, vegetation, and edaphic characteristics and was validated by comparing simulated soil C, nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes, and net primary production (NPP) with three years of field data. All compost amendment scenarios led to net greenhouse gas sinks that persisted for several decades. Rates of climate change mitigation potential ranged from 130 ± 3 g to 158 ± 8 g CO2-eq · m(-2) ·yr(-1) (where "eq" stands for "equivalents") when assessed over a 10-year time period and 63 ± 2 g to 84 ± 10 g CO2- eq · m(-2) · yr(-1) over a 30-year time period. Both C storage and greenhouse gas emissions increased rapidly following amendments. Compost amendments with lower C:N led to higher C sequestration rates over time. However, these soils also experienced greater N20 fluxes. Multiple smaller compost additions resulted in similar cumulative C sequestration rates, albeit with a time lag, and lower cumulative N2O emissions. These results identify a trade-off between maximizing C sequestration and minimizing N2O emissions following amendments, and suggest that compost additions to grassland soils can have a long-term impact on C and greenhouse gas dynamics that contributes to climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid26262755, year = {2015}, author = {Koo, KA and Kong, WS and Nibbelink, NP and Hopkinson, CS and Lee, JH}, title = {Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e0134043}, pmid = {26262755}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plants ; Republic of Korea ; }, abstract = {Climate change has caused shifts in species' ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below) are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1) identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2) predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77). Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula.}, }
@article {pmid26261446, year = {2015}, author = {Dixie, B and White, H and Hassall, M}, title = {Effects of microclimate on behavioural and life history traits of terrestrial isopods: implications for responses to climate change.}, journal = {ZooKeys}, volume = {}, number = {515}, pages = {145-157}, pmid = {26261446}, issn = {1313-2989}, abstract = {The sensitivity of terrestrial isopods to changes in both temperature and moisture make them suitable models for examining possible responses of arthropod macro-decomposers to predicted climate change. Effects of changes in both temperature and relative humidity on aggregation, growth and survivorship of species of isopods contrasting in their morphological and physiological adaptations to moisture stress have been investigated in laboratory microcosms. All three traits were more sensitive to a reduction in relative humidity of 20-25% than they were to an increase in temperature of 5-6 °C. These results suggest that predicted changes in climate in south east England may reduce the extent to which soil animals stimulate microbial activity and hence carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from soils in the future. This may help to mitigate the potential for a positive feedback between increased CO2 emissions from soils, and increased greenhouse effects causing an increase in soil temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid26259555, year = {2015}, author = {Lin, Y and Franzke, CL}, title = {Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {12971}, pmid = {26259555}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.}, }
@article {pmid26259458, year = {2015}, author = {Hu, S and Mo, XG and Lin, ZH}, title = {[Evaluating the response of yield and evapotranspiration of winter wheat and the adaptation by adjusting crop variety to climate change in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {1153-1161}, pmid = {26259458}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Agricultural Irrigation ; Carbon Dioxide ; China ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plant Transpiration ; Temperature ; Triticum/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Based on the multi-model datasets of three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios from IPCC5, the response of yield and accumulative evapotranspiration (ET) of winter wheat to climate change in the future were assessed by VIP model. The results showed that if effects of CO2 enrichment were excluded, temperature rise would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for wheat under the three climate change scenarios, and the wheat yield and ET presented a decrease tendency. The positive effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment could offset most negative effect introduced by temperature rising, indicating that atmospheric CO2 enrichment would be the prime reason of the wheat yield rising in future. In 2050s, wheat yield would increase 14.8% (decrease 2.5% without CO2 fertilization) , and ET would decrease 2.1% under RCP4.5. By adoption of new crop variety with enhanced requirement on accumulative temperature, the wheat yield would increase more significantly with CO2 fertilization, but the water consumption would also increase. Therefore, cultivar breeding new irrigation techniques and agronomical management should be explored under the challenges of climate change in the future.}, }
@article {pmid26257502, year = {2015}, author = {Pont, D and Logez, M and Carrel, G and Rogers, C and Haidvogl, G}, title = {Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.}, journal = {Aquatic sciences}, volume = {77}, number = {3}, pages = {441-453}, pmid = {26257502}, issn = {1015-1621}, abstract = {Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.}, }
@article {pmid26255408, year = {2015}, author = {Ruler, AJ}, title = {Dehydration and climate change.}, journal = {Australian nursing &amp; midwifery journal}, volume = {22}, number = {10}, pages = {36}, pmid = {26255408}, issn = {2202-7114}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Dehydration/*prevention &amp; control ; *Environmental Policy ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Nurse's Role ; Nutritional Requirements ; Primary Prevention/*organization &amp; administration ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid26255370, year = {2015}, author = {Yospin, GI and Bridgham, SD and Neilson, RP and Bolte, JP and Bachelet, DM and Gould, PJ and Harrington, CA and Kertis, JA and Evers, C and Johnson, BR}, title = {A new model to simulate climate-change impacts on forest succession for local land management.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {226-242}, doi = {10.1890/13-0906.1}, pmid = {26255370}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Decision Making ; Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Human Activities ; *Models, Theoretical ; Trees/classification/physiology ; }, abstract = {We developed a new climate-sensitive vegetation state-and-transition simulation model (CV-STSM) to simulate future vegetation at a fine spatial grain commensurate with the scales of human land-use decisions, and under the joint influences of changing climate, site productivity, and disturbance. CV-STSM integrates outputs from four different modeling systems. Successional changes in tree species composition and stand structure were represented as transition probabilities and organized into a state-and-transition simulation model. States were characterized based on assessments of both current vegetation and of projected future vegetation from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). State definitions included sufficient detail to support the integration of CV-STSM with an agent-based model of land-use decisions and a mechanistic model of fire behavior and spread. Transition probabilities were parameterized using output from a stand biometric model run across a wide range of site productivities. Biogeographic and biogeochemical projections from the DGVM were used to adjust the transition probabilities to account for the impacts of climate change on site productivity and potential vegetation type. We conducted experimental simulations in the Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. Our simulation landscape incorporated detailed new assessments of critically imperiled Oregon white oak (Quercus garryana) savanna and prairie habitats among the suite of existing and future vegetation types. The experimental design fully crossed four future climate scenarios with three disturbance scenarios. CV-STSM showed strong interactions between climate and disturbance scenarios. All disturbance scenarios increased the abundance of oak savanna habitat, but an interaction between the most intense disturbance and climate-change scenarios also increased the abundance of subtropical tree species. Even so, subtropical tree species were far less abundant at the end of simulations in CV-STSM than in the dynamic global vegetation model simulations. Our results indicate that dynamic global vegetation models may overestimate future rates of vegetation change, especially in the absence of stand-replacing disturbances. Modeling tools such as CV-STSM that simulate rates and direction of vegetation change affected by interactions and feedbacks between climate and land-use change can help policy makers, land managers, and society as a whole develop effective plans to adapt to rapidly changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid26255357, year = {2015}, author = {Stralberg, D and Matsuoka, SM and Hamann, A and Bayne, EM and Sólymos, P and Schmiegelow, FK and Wang, X and Cumming, SG and Song, SJ}, title = {Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {52-69}, doi = {10.1890/13-2289.1}, pmid = {26255357}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Models, Biological ; Reproduction ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {For climate change projections to be useful, the magnitude of change must be understood relative to the magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions. We quantified the signal-to-noise ratio in projected distributional responses of boreal birds to climate change, and compared sources of uncertainty. Boosted regression tree models of abundance were generated for 80 boreal-breeding bird species using a comprehensive data set of standardized avian point counts (349,629 surveys at 122,202 unique locations) and 4-km climate, land use, and topographic data. For projected changes in abundance, we calculated signal-to-noise ratios and examined variance components related to choice of global climate model (GCM) and two sources of species distribution model (SDM) uncertainty: sampling error and variable selection. We also evaluated spatial, temporal, and interspecific variation in these sources of uncertainty. The mean signal-to-noise ratio across species increased over time to 2.87 by the end of the 21st century, with the signal greater than the noise for 88% of species. Across species, climate change represented the largest component (0.44) of variance in projected abundance change. Among sources of uncertainty evaluated, choice of GCM (mean variance component = 0.17) was most important for 66% of species, sampling error (mean= 0.12) for 29% of species, and variable selection (mean =0.05) for 5% of species. Increasing the number of GCMs from four to 19 had minor effects on these results. The range of projected changes and uncertainty characteristics across species differed markedly, reinforcing the individuality of species' responses to climate change and the challenges of one-size-fits-all approaches to climate change adaptation. We discuss the usefulness of different conservation approaches depending on the strength of the climate change signal relative to the noise, as well as the dominant source of prediction uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid26255355, year = {2015}, author = {Luo, Z and Jiang, Z and Tang, S}, title = {Impacts of climate change on distributions and diversity of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {24-38}, doi = {10.1890/13-1499.1}, pmid = {26255355}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; Artiodactyla/*physiology ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Models, Biological ; Tibet ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change has significant impacts on species' distributions and diversity patterns. Understanding range shifts and changes in richness gradients under climate change is crucial for conservation. The Tibetan Plateau, home to wild yak, chiru, and kiang, contains a biome with many endemic ungulates. It is highly sensitive to climate change and a region that merits particular attention with regard to the impacts of global climate change on its biomes. Maximum entropy approaches were used to estimate current and future potential distributions, in response to climate change, for 22 ungulate species. We used three general circulation (MK3, HADCM3, MIROC3_2-MED) and three emissions scenarios (Bl, A1B, A2) to derive estimated future measurements of 14 environmental variables over three time periods (2020, 2050, 2080), and then modeled species distributions using these predicted environmental measurements for each time period under two dispersal hypotheses (full and zero, respectively). This resulted in a total of 6160 prediction models. We found that these ungulates, on average, may lose 30-50% of their distributional areas, depending on the dispersal scenarios. In addition, 55-68% of the ungulate species were predicted to become locally endangered under the different dispersal assumptions, 23-32% to become locally critically endangered, and 4-7 endemic species to become globally endangered. Furthermore, ungulate species ranges may experience average poleward shifts of ~300 km. We also predict west-to-east reductions in species richness: southeastern mountainous areas currently have the highest species richness, but are predicted to face the greatest diversity losses, whereas the northern areas are predicted to see increasing numbers of ungulate species in the 21st century. Our study indicates much more severe range reductions of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau than those anticipated elsewhere in the world, and species richness patterns will change dramatically with climate change. For conservation, we suggest (1) securing existing protected areas, and (2) establishing new nature reserves to counterbalance climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid26252381, year = {2015}, author = {Kabir, MI and Rahman, MB and Smith, W and Lusha, MA and Milton, AH}, title = {Child Centred Approach to Climate Change and Health Adaptation through Schools in Bangladesh: A Cluster Randomised Intervention Trial.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e0134993}, pmid = {26252381}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Adult ; Bangladesh ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Linear Models ; Male ; Multivariate Analysis ; *Public Health ; *Schools ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. People are getting educated at different levels on how to deal with potential impacts. One such educational mode was the preparation of a school manual, for high school students on climate change and health protection endorsed by the National Curriculum and Textbook Board, which is based on a 2008 World Health Organization manual. The objective of this study was to test the effectiveness of the manual in increasing the knowledge level of the school children about climate change and health adaptation.<br><br>METHODS: This cluster randomized intervention trial involved 60 schools throughout Bangladesh, with 3293 secondary school students participating. School upazilas (sub-districts) were randomised into intervention and control groups, and two schools from each upazila were randomly selected. All year seven students from both groups of schools sat for a pre-test of 30 short questions of binary response. A total of 1515 students from 30 intervention schools received the intervention through classroom training based on the school manual and 1778 students of the 30 control schools did not get the manual but a leaflet on climate change and health issues. Six months later, a post-intervention test of the same questionnaire used in the pre-test was performed at both intervention and control schools. The pre and post test scores were analysed along with the demographic data by using random effects model.<br><br>RESULTS: None of the various school level and student level variables were significantly different between the control and intervention group. However, the intervention group had a 17.42% (95% CI: 14.45 to 20.38, P = <0.001) higher score in the post-test after adjusting for pre-test score and other covariates in a multi-level linear regression model.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that school-based intervention for climate change and health adaptation is effective for increasing the knowledge level of school children on this topic.}, }
@article {pmid26251975, year = {2015}, author = {Rurinda, J and van Wijk, MT and Mapfumo, P and Descheemaeker, K and Supit, I and Giller, KE}, title = {Climate change and maize yield in southern Africa: what can farm management do?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {12}, pages = {4588-4601}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13061}, pmid = {26251975}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Fertilizers/*analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; Zea mays/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; Zimbabwe ; }, abstract = {There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options - planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice - using the crop simulation model, agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM), at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near- and long-term climates. Future climate data under two radiative forcing scenarios were generated from five global circulation models. The temperature is projected to increase significantly in Zimbabwe by 2100 with no significant change in mean annual total rainfall. When planting before mid-December with a high fertilizer rate, the simulated average grain yield for all three maize cultivars declined by 13% for the periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069 and by 20% for 2070-2099 compared with the baseline climate, under low radiative forcing. Larger declines in yield of up to 32% were predicted for 2070-2099 with high radiative forcing. Despite differences in annual rainfall, similar trends in yield changes were observed for the two sites studied, Hwedza and Makoni. The yield response to delay in planting was nonlinear. Fertilizer increased yield significantly under both baseline and future climates. The response of maize to mineral nitrogen decreased with progressing climate change, implying a decrease in the optimal fertilizer rate in the future. Our results suggest that in the near future, improved crop and soil fertility management will remain important for enhanced maize yield. Towards the end of the 21st century, however, none of the farm management options tested in the study can avoid large yield losses in southern Africa due to climate change. There is a need to transform the current cropping systems of southern Africa to offset the negative impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26250866, year = {2016}, author = {Meyer, S and Blaschek, M and Duttmann, R and Ludwig, R}, title = {Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {543}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {906-923}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.116}, pmid = {26250866}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important in ungauged catchments.}, }
@article {pmid26250864, year = {2016}, author = {Papadaki, C and Soulis, K and Muñoz-Mas, R and Martinez-Capel, F and Zogaris, S and Ntoanidis, L and Dimitriou, E}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {540}, number = {}, pages = {418-428}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.06.134}, pmid = {26250864}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Balkan Peninsula ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hydrology ; Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/chemistry ; Trout ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate change impacts on the south-western Balkan river ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid26247681, year = {2015}, author = {Leather, SR}, title = {Onwards and upwards - aphid flight trends follow climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {84}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12314}, pmid = {26247681}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Aphids/*physiology ; *Biodiversity ; }, abstract = {The world faces an uncertain future; climate change and the concerns about the security of food production feature prominently on political and scientific agendas world-wide. In this issue, Bell et al. (), drawing on the unique 50-year data set amassed by the suction trap network run by the Rothamsted Insect Survey (RIS), elucidate the mechanisms advancing aphid phenology under climate change and show how by using biological traits we can make predictions about emerging crop pests. Here, I discuss their findings in the context of phenological coincidence and host plant availability.}, }
@article {pmid26247206, year = {2015}, author = {Morrison, M and Duncan, R and Parton, K}, title = {Religion Does Matter for Climate Change Attitudes and Behavior.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e0134868}, pmid = {26247206}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Attitude ; Australia ; Behavior ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Humans ; *Religion ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Little research has focused on the relationship between religion and climate change attitudes and behavior. Further, while there have been some studies examining the relationship between environmental attitudes and religion, most are focused on Christian denominations and secularism, and few have examined other religions such as Buddhism. Using an online survey of 1,927 Australians we examined links between membership of four religious groupings (Buddhists, Christian literalists and non-literalists, and Secularists) and climate change attitudes and behaviors. Differences were found across religious groups in terms of their belief in: (a) human induced climate change, (b) the level of consensus among scientists, (c) their own efficacy, and (d) the need for policy responses. We show, using ordinal regression, that religion explains these differences even after taking into account socio-demographic factors, knowledge and environmental attitude, including belief in man's dominion over nature. Differences in attitude and behavior between these religious groups suggest the importance of engaging denominations to encourage change in attitudes and behavior among their members.}, }
@article {pmid26246862, year = {2015}, author = {López-Santos, A and Martínez-Santiago, S}, title = {Use of two indicators for the socio-environmental risk analysis of Northern Mexico under three climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Air quality, atmosphere, &amp; health}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {331-345}, pmid = {26246862}, issn = {1873-9318}, abstract = {The aims of this study were to (1) find critical areas susceptible to the degradation of natural resources according to local erosion rates and aridity levels, which were used as environmental quality indicators, and (2) identify areas of risk associated with the presence of natural hazards according to three climate change scenarios defined for Mexico. The focus was the municipality of Lerdo, Durango (25.166° to 25.783° N and 103.333° to 103.983° W), which has dry temperate and very dry climates (BSohw and BWhw). From the Global Circulation Models, downscaling techniques for the dynamic modeling of environmental processes using climate data, historical information, and three regionalized climate change scenarios were applied to determine the impacts from laminar wind erosion rates (LWER) and aridity indices (AI). From the historic period to scenario A2 (ScA2, 2010-2039), regarding greenhouse gas emissions, the LWER was predicted to reach 147.2 t ha[-1] year[-1], representing a 0.5 m thickness over nearly 30 years and a change in the AI from 9.3 to 8.7. This trend represents an increase in drought for 70.8 % of the study area and could affect 90 % of the agricultural activities and approximately 80 % of the population living in the southeastern Lerdense territory.}, }
@article {pmid26246615, year = {2015}, author = {Pilbeam, DJ}, title = {Breeding crops for improved mineral nutrition under climate change conditions.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {66}, number = {19}, pages = {6079}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erv374}, pmid = {26246615}, issn = {1460-2431}, }
@article {pmid26246609, year = {2015}, author = {Putnam, HM and Gates, RD}, title = {Preconditioning in the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization in coral larvae under future climate change conditions.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {218}, number = {Pt 15}, pages = {2365-2372}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.123018}, pmid = {26246609}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Anthozoa/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Larva/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Seawater/chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Coral reefs are globally threatened by climate change-related ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA). To date, slow-response mechanisms such as genetic adaptation have been considered the major determinant of coral reef persistence, with little consideration of rapid-response acclimatization mechanisms. These rapid mechanisms such as parental effects that can contribute to trans-generational acclimatization (e.g. epigenetics) have, however, been identified as important contributors to offspring response in other systems. We present the first evidence of parental effects in a cross-generational exposure to temperature and OA in reef-building corals. Here, we exposed adults to high (28.9°C, 805 µatm P(CO2)) or ambient (26.5°C, 417 µatm P(CO2)) temperature and OA treatments during the larval brooding period. Exposure to high treatment negatively affected adult performance, but their larvae exhibited size differences and metabolic acclimation when subsequently re-exposed, unlike larvae from parents exposed to ambient conditions. Understanding the innate capacity corals possess to respond to current and future climatic conditions is essential to reef protection and maintenance. Our results identify that parental effects may have an important role through (1) ameliorating the effects of stress through preconditioning and adaptive plasticity, and/or (2) amplifying the negative parental response through latent effects on future life stages. Whether the consequences of parental effects and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization are beneficial or maladaptive, our work identifies a critical need to expand currently proposed climate change outcomes for corals to further assess rapid response mechanisms that include non-genetic inheritance through parental contributions and classical epigenetic mechanisms.}, }
@article {pmid26245256, year = {2015}, author = {Seabra, R and Wethey, DS and Santos, AM and Lima, FP}, title = {Understanding complex biogeographic responses to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {12930}, pmid = {26245256}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Predicting the extent and direction of species' range shifts is a major priority for scientists and resource managers. Seminal studies have fostered the notion that biological systems responding to climate change-impacted variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation) should exhibit poleward range shifts but shifts contrary to that expectation have been frequently reported. Understanding whether those shifts are indeed contrary to climate change predictions involves understanding the most basic mechanisms determining the distribution of species. We assessed the patterns of ecologically relevant temperature metrics (e.g., daily range, min, max) along the European Atlantic coast. Temperature metrics have contrasting geographical patterns and latitude or the grand mean are poor predictors for many of them. Our data suggest that unless the appropriate metrics are analysed, the impact of climate change in even a single metric of a single stressor may lead to range shifts in directions that would otherwise be classified as "contrary to prediction".}, }
@article {pmid26245139, year = {2015}, author = {Toloo, GS and Hu, W and FitzGerald, G and Aitken, P and Tong, S}, title = {Projecting excess emergency department visits and associated costs in Brisbane, Australia, under population growth and climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {12860}, pmid = {26245139}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Australia ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate Change/*economics ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Delivery of Health Care/*economics ; Emergency Service, Hospital/*economics ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Models, Economic ; }, abstract = {The direct and indirect health effects of increasingly warmer temperatures are likely to further burden the already overcrowded hospital emergency departments (EDs). Using current trends and estimates in conjunction with future population growth and climate change scenarios, we show that the increased number of hot days in the future can have a considerable impact on EDs, adding to their workload and costs. The excess number of visits in 2030 is projected to range between 98-336 and 42-127 for younger and older groups, respectively. The excess costs in 2012-13 prices are estimated to range between AU$51,000-184,000 (0-64) and AU$27,000-84,000 (65+). By 2060, these estimates will increase to 229-2300 and 145-1188 at a cost of between AU$120,000-1,200,000 and AU$96,000-786,000 for the respective age groups. Improvements in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to generate synergistic health co-benefits and reduce the impact on frontline health services.}, }
@article {pmid26244851, year = {2015}, author = {Yandow, LH and Chalfoun, AD and Doak, DF}, title = {Climate Tolerances and Habitat Requirements Jointly Shape the Elevational Distribution of the American Pika (Ochotona princeps), with Implications for Climate Change Effects.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {e0131082}, pmid = {26244851}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Lagomorpha/*physiology ; Plant Development ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Wyoming ; }, abstract = {Some of the most compelling examples of ecological responses to climate change are elevational range shifts of individual species, which have been observed throughout the world. A growing body of evidence, however, suggests substantial mediation of simple range shifts due to climate change by other limiting factors. Understanding limiting factors for a species within different contexts, therefore, is critical for predicting responses to climate change. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is an ideal species for investigating distributions in relation to climate because of their unusual and well-understood natural history as well as observed shifts to higher elevation in parts of their range. We tested three hypotheses for the climatic or habitat characteristics that may limit pika presence and abundance: summer heat, winter snowpack, and forage availability. We performed these tests using an index of pika abundance gathered in a region where environmental influences on pika distribution have not been well-characterized. We estimated relative pika abundance via scat surveys and quantified climatic and habitat characteristics across two North-Central Rocky Mountain Ranges, the Wind River and Bighorn ranges in Wyoming, USA. Pika scat density was highest at mid-elevations and increased linearly with forage availability in both ranges. Scat density also increased with temperatures conducive to forage plant growth, and showed a unimodal relationship with the number of days below -5°C, which is modulated by insulating snowpack. Our results provide support for both the forage availability and winter snowpack hypotheses. Especially in montane systems, considering the context-dependent nature of climate effects across regions and elevations as well as interactions between climatic and other critical habitat characteristics, will be essential for predicting future species distributions.}, }
@article {pmid26240857, year = {2015}, author = {CaraDonna, PJ and Inouye, DW}, title = {Phenological responses to climate change do not exhibit phylogenetic signal in a subalpine plant community.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {96}, number = {2}, pages = {355-361}, doi = {10.1890/14-1536.1}, pmid = {26240857}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Flowers/*growth &amp; development ; *Periodicity ; *Phylogeny ; Plants/*classification/*genetics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Phylogenetic relationships may underlie species-specific phenological sensitivities to abiotic variation and may help to predict these responses to climate change. Although shared evolutionary history may mediate both phenology and phenological sensitivity to abiotic variation, few studies have explicitly investigated whether this is the case. We explore phylogenetic signal in flowering phenology and in phenological sensitivity to temperature and snowmelt using a 39-year record of flowering from the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA that includes dates of first, peak, and last flowering, and flowering duration for 60 plant species in a subalpine plant community. Consistent with other studies, we found evidence in support of phylogenetic signal in first flowering date. However, the strength and significance of that signal were inconsistent across other measures of flowering in this plant community: peak flowering date exhibited the strongest phylogenetic signal, followed by first flowering date; last flowering date and duration of flowering exhibited patterns indistinguishable from random trait evolution. In contrast to first and peak flowering date, phenological sensitivities of all flowering measures to temperature and snowmelt did not exhibit a phylogenetic signal. These findings show that within ecological communities, phylogenetic signal in phenology does not necessarily imply phylogenetic signal in phenological sensitivities to abiotic variation.}, }
@article {pmid26240607, year = {2015}, author = {Johnson, LC and Olsen, JT and Tetreault, H and DeLaCruz, A and Bryant, J and Morgan, TJ and Knapp, M and Bello, NM and Baer, SG and Maricle, BR}, title = {Intraspecific variation of a dominant grass and local adaptation in reciprocal garden communities along a US Great Plains' precipitation gradient: implications for grassland restoration with climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {705-723}, pmid = {26240607}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Identifying suitable genetic stock for restoration often employs a 'best guess' approach. Without adaptive variation studies, restoration may be misguided. We test the extent to which climate in central US grasslands exerts selection pressure on a foundation grass big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii), widely used in restorations, and resulting in local adaptation. We seeded three regional ecotypes of A. gerardii in reciprocal transplant garden communities across 1150 km precipitation gradient. We measured ecological responses over several timescales (instantaneous gas exchange, medium-term chlorophyll absorbance, and long-term responses of establishment and cover) in response to climate and biotic factors and tested if ecotypes could expand range. The ecotype from the driest region exhibited greatest cover under low rainfall, suggesting local adaptation under abiotic stress. Unexpectedly, no evidence for cover differences between ecotypes exists at mesic sites where establishment and cover of all ecotypes were low, perhaps due to strong biotic pressures. Expression of adaptive differences is strongly environment specific. Given observed adaptive variation, the most conservative restoration strategy would be to plant the local ecotype, especially in drier locations. With superior performance of the most xeric ecotype under dry conditions and predicted drought, this ecotype may migrate eastward, naturally or with assistance in restorations.}, }
@article {pmid26240363, year = {2015}, author = {Hejazi, MI and Voisin, N and Liu, L and Bramer, LM and Fortin, DC and Hathaway, JE and Huang, M and Kyle, P and Leung, LR and Li, HY and Liu, Y and Patel, PL and Pulsipher, TC and Rice, JS and Tesfa, TK and Vernon, CR and Zhou, Y}, title = {21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {34}, pages = {10635-10640}, pmid = {26240363}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Forecasting ; Fresh Water ; Global Warming ; Groundwater ; Models, Theoretical ; *Public Policy ; Socioeconomic Factors ; United States ; Water Cycle ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate-energy-water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid26238673, year = {2015}, author = {Petri, Y and Caldeira, K}, title = {Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {12427}, doi = {10.1038/srep12427}, pmid = {26238673}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981-2010) and future (2080-2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making.}, }
@article {pmid26237242, year = {2015}, author = {Gasser, T and Guivarch, C and Tachiiri, K and Jones, CD and Ciais, P}, title = {Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {7958}, pmid = {26237242}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {To limit global warming to <2 °C we must reduce the net amount of CO2 we release into the atmosphere, either by producing less CO2 (conventional mitigation) or by capturing more CO2 (negative emissions). Here, using state-of-the-art carbon-climate models, we quantify the trade-off between these two options in RCP2.6: an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario likely to limit global warming below 2 °C. In our best-case illustrative assumption of conventional mitigation, negative emissions of 0.5-3 Gt C (gigatonnes of carbon) per year and storage capacity of 50-250 Gt C are required. In our worst case, those requirements are 7-11 Gt C per year and 1,000-1,600 Gt C, respectively. Because these figures have not been shown to be feasible, we conclude that development of negative emission technologies should be accelerated, but also that conventional mitigation must remain a substantial part of any climate policy aiming at the 2-°C target.}, }
@article {pmid26236843, year = {2015}, author = {Tomiolo, S and Van der Putten, WH and Tielbörger, K}, title = {Separating the role of biotic interactions and climate in determining adaptive response of plants to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {96}, number = {5}, pages = {1298-1308}, doi = {10.1890/14-1445.1}, pmid = {26236843}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environment, Controlled ; Folic Acid/analogs &amp; derivatives ; Israel ; Plant Development ; Plants/*metabolism ; Species Specificity ; Vinca Alkaloids ; }, abstract = {Altered rainfall regimes will greatly affect the response of plant species to climate change. However, little is known about how direct effects of changing precipitation on plant performance may depend on other abiotic factors and biotic interactions. We used reciprocal transplants between climatically very different sites with simultaneous manipulation of soil, plant population origin, and neighbor conditions to evaluate local adaptation and possible adaptive response of four Eastern Mediterranean annual plant species to climate change. The effect of site on plant performance was negligible, but soil origin had a strong effect on fecundity, most likely due to differential water retaining ability. Competition by neighbors strongly reduced fitness. We separated the effects of the abiotic and biotic soil properties on plant performance by repeating the field experiment in a greenhouse under homogenous environmental conditions and including a soil biota manipulation treatment. As in the field, plant performance differed among soil origins and neighbor treatments. Moreover, we found plant species-specific responses to soil biota that may be best explained by the differential sensitivity to negative and positive soil biota effects. Overall, under the conditions of our experiment with two contrasting sites, biotic interactions had a strong effect on plant fitness that interacted with and eventually overrode climate. Because climate and biotic interactions covary, reciprocal transplants and climate gradient studies should consider soil biotic interactions and abiotic conditions when evaluating climate change effects on plant performance.}, }
@article {pmid26236842, year = {2015}, author = {Kroiss, SJ and Hillerslambers, J}, title = {Recruitment limitation of long-lived conifers: implications for climate change responses.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {96}, number = {5}, pages = {1286-1297}, doi = {10.1890/14-0595.1}, pmid = {26236842}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Reproduction/physiology ; Seedlings/physiology ; Seeds/physiology ; Time Factors ; Tracheophyta/*physiology ; Washington ; }, abstract = {Seed availability and suitable microsites for germination are likely to severely constrain the responses of plant species to climate change, especially at and beyond range edges. For example, range shifts may be slow if seed availability is low at range edges due to low parent-tree abundance or reduced fecundity. Even when seeds are available, climatic and biotic factors may further limit the availability of suitable microsites for recruitment. Unfortunately, the importance of seed and microsite limitation during range shifts remains unknown, since few studies have examined both factors simultaneously, particularly across species' ranges. To address this issue, we assessed seed availability and the factors influencing germination for six conifer species across a large environmental gradient encompassing their elevational ranges. Specifically, we assessed (1) how parent-tree abundance influences annual seed availability; (2) how seed limitation varies across species' ranges; (3) how climatic and biotic factors affect germination; and (4) how seed and suitable microsite availability covary annually within and among species. We found that seed availability declined toward species' upper range edges for most species, primarily due to low parent-tree abundance rather than declining fecundity. Range expansions are thus likely to be lagged with respect to climate change, as long generation times preclude rapid increases in tree density. Negative impacts of canopy cover on germination rates suggest range shifts will further be slowed by competition with existing vegetation. Moreover, years of high seed production were generally correlated among species, but not correlated with the availability of suitable microsites, implying that seedling competition and the interaction between seed and microsite limitation will further constrain recruitment. However, the nature of microsite limitation varied strongly between treeline and low-elevation species due to differing responses to snowpack duration and. competition, suggesting that treeline species may be quicker to shift their ranges in response to warming than low-elevation species. In all, our results demonstrate that seed and microsite limitation will likely result in lagged responses to climate change but with differences among species leading to complex range shift dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid26236840, year = {2015}, author = {Lord, J and Whitlatch, R}, title = {Predicting competitive shifts and responses to climate change based on latitudinal distributions of species assemblages.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {96}, number = {5}, pages = {1264-1274}, doi = {10.1890/14-0403.1}, pmid = {26236840}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Bryozoa/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Pacific Ocean ; Species Specificity ; United States ; Urochordata/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Many terrestrial plant and marine benthic communities involve intense competition for space as a means to survive and reproduce. Superior competitors can dominate other species numerically with high reproductive rates, indirectly with high growth rates that facilitate space acquisition, or directly with competitive overgrowth. To assess how climate change could affect competitive interactions, we examined latitudinal patterns in growth rates and overgrowth competition via field surveys and experiments with marine epibenthic communities. Epibenthic fouling communities are dominated by invasive tunicates, bryozoans, and other species that grow on docks, boats, and other artificial structures. Fouling communities are space limited, so growth rate and overgrowth competition play an important role in shaping abundance patterns. We experimentally assessed temperature-dependent growth rates of several tunicates and bryozoans in eight regions spanning the U.S. east and west coasts. Several species displayed positive growth responses to warmer temperature in the northern portions of their latitudinal ranges, and vice versa. We used photo surveys of floating docks in at least 16 harbors in each region to compare communities and overgrowth competition. There was a strong correlation across species and regions between growth rate and competitive ability, indicating that growth plays an important role in competitive outcomes. Because growth rates are typically temperature dependent for organisms that compete for space, including terrestrial plants, fungi, algae, bacteria, and sessile benthic organisms, global warming could affect competitive outcomes. Our results suggest that these competitive shifts can be predicted by species' relative growth rates and latitudinal ranges.}, }
@article {pmid26234736, year = {2015}, author = {Wolff, NH and Donner, SD and Cao, L and Iglesias-Prieto, R and Sale, PF and Mumby, PJ}, title = {Global inequities between polluters and the polluted: climate change impacts on coral reefs.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {3982-3994}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13015}, pmid = {26234736}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; *Environmental Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Gases/analysis ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Hot Temperature ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Models, Biological ; Seawater/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {For many ecosystem services, it remains uncertain whether the impacts of climate change will be mostly negative or positive and how these changes will be geographically distributed. These unknowns hamper the identification of regional winners and losers, which can influence debate over climate policy. Here, we use coral reefs to explore the spatial variability of climate stress by modelling the ecological impacts of rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification, two important coral stressors associated with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We then combine these results with national per capita emissions to quantify inequities arising from the distribution of cause (CO2 emissions) and effect (stress upon reefs) among coral reef countries. We find pollution and coral stress are spatially decoupled, creating substantial inequity of impacts as a function of emissions. We then consider the implications of such inequity for international climate policy. Targets for GHG reductions are likely to be tied to a country's emissions. Yet within a given level of GHG emissions, our analysis reveals that some countries experience relatively high levels of impact and will likely experience greater financial cost in terms of lost ecosystem productivity and more extensive adaptation measures. We suggest countries so disadvantaged be given access to international adaptation funds proportionate with impacts to their ecosystem. We raise the idea that funds could be more equitably allocated by formally including a metric of equity within a vulnerability framework.}, }
@article {pmid26229075, year = {2015}, author = {Price, DT and Cooke, BJ and Metsaranta, JM and Kurz, WA}, title = {If forest dynamics in Canada's west are driven mainly by competition, why did they change? Half-century evidence says: Climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {32}, pages = {E4340}, pmid = {26229075}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid26229010, year = {2017}, author = {Feldman, L and Hart, PS and Milosevic, T}, title = {Polarizing news? Representations of threat and efficacy in leading US newspapers' coverage of climate change.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {481-497}, doi = {10.1177/0963662515595348}, pmid = {26229010}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Journalism/standards ; *Mass Media ; *Newspapers as Topic ; United States ; }, abstract = {This study examines non-editorial news coverage in leading US newspapers as a source of ideological differences on climate change. A quantitative content analysis compared how the threat of climate change and efficacy for actions to address it were represented in climate change coverage across The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and USA Today between 2006 and 2011. Results show that The Wall Street Journal was least likely to discuss the impacts of and threat posed by climate change and most likely to include negative efficacy information and use conflict and negative economic framing when discussing actions to address climate change. The inclusion of positive efficacy information was similar across newspapers. Also, across all newspapers, climate impacts and actions to address climate change were more likely to be discussed separately than together in the same article. Implications for public engagement and ideological polarization are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid26228857, year = {2015}, author = {Michelozzi, P and Lapucci, E and Farchi, S}, title = {[Meat consumption reduction policies: benefits for climate change mitigation and health].}, journal = {Recenti progressi in medicina}, volume = {106}, number = {8}, pages = {354-357}, doi = {10.1701/1960.21296}, pmid = {26228857}, issn = {2038-1840}, mesh = {Adult ; Agriculture/*trends ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Diet/adverse effects/*trends ; Europe ; Female ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Health Promotion/methods ; Humans ; Italy ; Livestock ; Male ; Meat/adverse effects ; Public Health ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Agricultural food production substantially contributes to green house gas (GHG) emissions worldwide and 80% of the agricultural emissions arise from the livestock sector, in particular from ruminants. Meat consumption is generally above dietary recommendations in many countries, including Italy, and it is increasing in developing countries. Although meat is a source of essential nutrients, it provides large amounts of saturated fat, which is a known risk factor for obesity and for several diseases such as stroke, breast cancer and colon cancer. Dietary changes, with lower intake of red and processed meat, are likely to be beneficial for improving health and for the environment by reducing emissions of GHG. Data on meat consumption in Italy among adults, referred to the last ten years, shows heterogeneity among regions, with the highest consumption in the North-western regions and generally with higher consumption among males. We describe meat consumption distribution worldwide, in Europe and Italy. An assessment of the potential environmental and health co-benefits considering different reduction scenarios of red meat consumption in Italy is provided. Dietary changes can substantially lower GHG and coordinated actions are needed across public health and other sectors to promote healthy, low-emission diets.}, }
@article {pmid26227623, year = {2015}, author = {Carroll, MJ and Heinemeyer, A and Pearce-Higgins, JW and Dennis, P and West, C and Holden, J and Wallage, ZE and Thomas, CD}, title = {Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {7851}, pmid = {26227623}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Diptera ; *Ecosystem ; *Food Chain ; Hydrology ; Models, Biological ; Rain ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; Water Cycle ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56-81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15-51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051-2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators.}, }
@article {pmid26227557, year = {2015}, author = {Zhao, G and Webber, H and Hoffmann, H and Wolf, J and Siebert, S and Ewert, F}, title = {The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European-wide study.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {4031-4048}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13008}, pmid = {26227557}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Agricultural Irrigation ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Europe ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Transpiration ; Water/metabolism ; }, abstract = {This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO2 effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982-2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040-2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process-based crop model, SIMPLACE <LINTUL5, DRUNIR, HEAT>. We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr(-1)). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO2 effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO2 effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area.}, }
@article {pmid26227490, year = {2015}, author = {Winkler, MS and Röösli, M and Ragettli, MS and Cissé, G and Müller, P and Utzinger, J and Perez, L}, title = {Mitigating and adapting to climate change: a call to public health professionals.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {60}, number = {6}, pages = {631-632}, pmid = {26227490}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid26224563, year = {2016}, author = {Esperón-Rodríguez, M and Bonifacio-Bautista, M and Barradas, VL}, title = {Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {45}, number = {2}, pages = {146-160}, pmid = {26224563}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Mexico ; Models, Theoretical ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.}, }
@article {pmid26222331, year = {2016}, author = {Pfeifer-Meister, L and Bridgham, SD and Reynolds, LL and Goklany, ME and Wilson, HE and Little, CJ and Ferguson, A and Johnson, BR}, title = {Climate change alters plant biogeography in Mediterranean prairies along the West Coast, USA.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {845-855}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13052}, pmid = {26222331}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Grassland ; Introduced Species ; Northwestern United States ; Plants ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Projected changes in climate are expected to have widespread effects on plant community composition and diversity in coming decades. However, multisite, multifactor climate manipulation studies that have examined whether observed responses are regionally consistent and whether multiple climate perturbations are interdependent are rare. Using such an experiment, we quantified how warming and increased precipitation intensity affect the relative dominance of plant functional groups and diversity across a broad climate gradient of Mediterranean prairies. We implemented a fully factorial climate manipulation of warming (+2.5-3.0 °C) and increased wet-season precipitation (+20%) at three sites across a 520-km latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA. After seeding with a nearly identical mix of native species at all sites, we measured plant community composition (i.e., cover, richness, and diversity), temperature, and soil moisture for 3 years. Warming and the resultant drying of soils altered plant community composition, decreased native diversity, and increased total cover, with warmed northern communities becoming more similar to communities further south. In particular, after two full years of warming, annual cover increased and forb cover decreased at all sites mirroring the natural biogeographic pattern. This suggests that the extant climate gradient of increasing heat and drought severity is responsible for a large part of the observed biogeographic pattern of increasing annual invasion in US West Coast prairies as one moves further south. Additional precipitation during the rainy season did little to relieve drought stress and had minimal effects on plant community composition. Our results suggest that the projected increase in drought severity (i.e., hotter, drier summers) in Pacific Northwest prairies may lead to increased invasion by annuals and a loss of forbs, similar to what has been observed in central and southern California, resulting in novel species assemblages and shifts in functional composition, which in turn may alter ecosystem functions.}, }
@article {pmid26217884, year = {2015}, author = {Fangueiro, D and Pereira, J and Bichana, A and Surgy, S and Cabral, F and Coutinho, J}, title = {Effects of cattle-slurry treatment by acidification and separation on nitrogen dynamics and global warming potential after surface application to an acidic soil.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {162}, number = {}, pages = {1-8}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.07.032}, pmid = {26217884}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Acids ; Ammonia/analysis ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Cattle ; *Environment ; Fertilizers ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Manure/analysis ; Methane/analysis ; Minerals ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Cattle-slurry (liquid manure) application to soil is a common practice to provide nutrients and organic matter for crop growth but it also strongly impacts the environment. The objective of the present study was to assess the efficiency of cattle-slurry treatment by solid-liquid separation and/or acidification on nitrogen dynamics and global warming potential (GWP) following application to an acidic soil. An aerobic laboratory incubation was performed over 92 days with a Dystric Cambisol amended with raw cattle-slurry or separated liquid fraction (LF) treated or not by acidification to pH 5.5 by addition of sulphuric acid. Soil mineral N contents and NH3, N2O, CH4 and CO2 emissions were measured. Results obtained suggest that the acidification of raw cattle-slurry reduced significantly NH3 emissions (-88%) but also the GWP (-28%) while increased the N availability relative to raw cattle-slurry (15% of organic N applied mineralised against negative mineralisation in raw slurry). However, similar NH3 emissions and GWP were observed in acidified LF and non-acidified LF treatments. On the other hand, soil application of acidified cattle-slurry rather than non-acidified LF should be preferred attending the lower costs associated to acidification compared to solid-liquid separation. It can then be concluded that cattle-slurry acidification is a solution to minimise NH3 emissions from amended soil and an efficient strategy to decrease the GWP associated with slurry application to soil. Furthermore, the more intense N mineralisation observed with acidified slurry should lead to a higher amount of plant available N and consequently to higher crop yields.}, }
@article {pmid26217666, year = {2015}, author = {Hawkins, IW and Balsam, AL and Goldman, R}, title = {A Survey of Registered Dietitians' Concern and Actions Regarding Climate Change in the United States.}, journal = {Frontiers in nutrition}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {21}, pmid = {26217666}, issn = {2296-861X}, abstract = {Dietary choices are a tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While registered dietitians are on the front lines of food and nutrition recommendations, it is unclear how many are concerned with climate change and take action in practice in the United States. We explored concern about climate change among registered dietitians, and identified factors that may influence practice-related behaviors. Our study population included a random sample of all registered dietitians credentialed in the United States. Primary data were gathered using a cross-sectional survey. Of the 570 survey responses, 75% strongly agreed or agreed that climate change is an important issue while 34% strongly agreed or agreed that dietitians should play a major role in climate change mitigation strategies. Thirty-eight percent engaged in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Vegetarian (p = 0.002) and vegan dietitians (p = 0.007) were significantly more likely than non-vegetarian and non-vegan dietitians to engage in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Overall, concern for climate change among dietitians varied significantly by the region of the country in which the dietitian resided, and awareness that animal products are implicated in climate change. Registered dietitians in the United States are concerned with climate change. However, there is a discrepancy between concern and practice-based actions. These results suggest the need for educational and experiential opportunities connecting climate change mitigation to dietetics practice.}, }
@article {pmid26216952, year = {2015}, author = {Phalkey, RK and Aranda-Jan, C and Marx, S and Höfle, B and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Systematic review of current efforts to quantify the impacts of climate change on undernutrition.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {33}, pages = {E4522-9}, pmid = {26216952}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Decision Making ; Environment ; Global Health ; Growth Disorders/*etiology ; Humans ; Malnutrition/*etiology ; Social Class ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Malnutrition is a challenge to the health and productivity of populations and is viewed as one of the five largest adverse health impacts of climate change. Nonetheless, systematic evidence quantifying these impacts is currently limited. Our aim was to assess the scientific evidence base for the impact of climate change on childhood undernutrition (particularly stunting) in subsistence farmers in low- and middle-income countries. A systematic review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed and gray full-text documents in English with no limits for year of publication or study design. Fifteen manuscripts were reviewed. Few studies use primary data to investigate the proportion of stunting that can be attributed to climate/weather variability. Although scattered and limited, current evidence suggests a significant but variable link between weather variables, e.g., rainfall, extreme weather events (floods/droughts), seasonality, and temperature, and childhood stunting at the household level (12 of 15 studies, 80%). In addition, we note that agricultural, socioeconomic, and demographic factors at the household and individual levels also play substantial roles in mediating the nutritional impacts. Comparable interdisciplinary studies based on primary data at a household level are urgently required to guide effective adaptation, particularly for rural subsistence farmers. Systemization of data collection at the global level is indispensable and urgent. We need to assimilate data from long-term, high-quality agricultural, environmental, socioeconomic, health, and demographic surveillance systems and develop robust statistical methods to establish and validate causal links, quantify impacts, and make reliable predictions that can guide evidence-based health interventions in the future.}, }
@article {pmid26214920, year = {2015}, author = {Flanagan, NE and Richardson, CJ and Ho, M}, title = {Connecting differential responses of native and invasive riparian plants to climate change and environmental alteration.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {753-767}, doi = {10.1890/14-0767.1}, pmid = {26214920}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Introduced Species ; Plants/*classification ; Temperature ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to impact river systems in the southeastern United States through alterations of temperature, patterns of precipitation and hydrology. Future climate scenarios for the southeastern United States predict (1) surface water temperatures will warm in concert with air temperature, (2) storm flows will increase and base flows will decrease, and (3) the annual pattern of synchronization between hydroperiod and water temperature will be altered. These alterations are expected to disturb floodplain plant communities, making them more vulnerable to establishment of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate whether native and invasive riparian plant assemblages respond differently to alterations of climate and land use. To study the response of riparian wetlands to watershed and climate alterations, we utilized an existing natural experiment imbedded in gradients of temperature and hydrology-found among dammed and undammed rivers. We evaluated a suite of environmental variables related to water temperature, hydrology, watershed disturbance, and edaphic conditions to identify the strongest predictors of native and invasive species abundances. We found that native species abundance is strongly influenced by climate-driven variables such as temperature and hydrology, while invasive species abundance is more strongly influenced by site-specific factors such as land use and soil nutrient availability. The patterns of synchronization between plant phenology, annual hydrographs, and annual water temperature cycles may be key factors sustaining the viability of native riparian plant communities. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the interactions between climate, land use, and nutrient management in maintaining the species diversity of riparian plant communities. Future climate change is likely to result in diminished competitiveness of native plant species, while the competitiveness of invasive species will increase due to anthropogenic watershed disturbance and accelerated nutrient and sediment export.}, }
@article {pmid26212382, year = {2015}, author = {Wang, B and Xiang, B and Li, J and Webster, PJ and Rajeevan, MN and Liu, J and Ha, KJ}, title = {Corrigendum: Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {7695}, doi = {10.1038/ncomms8695}, pmid = {26212382}, issn = {2041-1723}, }
@article {pmid26211078, year = {2015}, author = {Yang, FK and He, BL and Gao, SM}, title = {[Impacts of climate change on food production in Gansu: A review].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {930-938}, pmid = {26211078}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Altitude ; China ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Food Supply ; Seasons ; Soil ; *Temperature ; Water ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The climate of Gansu turned to be overall warming-drying and partly warming-wetting since 1986. In contrast to that of 1960, the average annual temperature had raised by 1.1°C with the average annual precipitation decreased by 28 mm correspondingly, which made the arid region expanded southward by 50 km in 2010. Climate warming increased the growth period effective accumulated temperature of main food grain crops and lengthened the crop growth period. It changed crop maturity, crop disposition, cropping system and generally increased the cultivatable area and planting altitude above the sea level of major crops and expanded northward the multiple cropping system, which further resulted in expansion of autumn grain crop sown area, shrink of summer grain crop sown area, and replacement of strong winter early maturing varieties by weak winter middle late maturing varieties. It benefited the crop yield by increasing the use efficiency of photo-thermal resources. Warming-wetting climate increased the climate productivity of oasis crop while warming-drying weather decreased the climate productivity of rainfed crops, which were mostly determined by the precipitation regimes and water conditions. Any advanced technique that can increase precipitation use ratio and water use efficiency as well as improve and promote soil quality and fertility should be regarded as an effective countermeasure to increase food grain production under climate change in Gsansu. So, selecting and breeding new crop varieties with the characteristics of strong resistance, weak winter, middle-late mature and high water use efficiency, establishing new planting structure and cropping system that suitable to the precipitation and temperature features of changed climate, are the development direction of food grain production in Gansu to cope with the climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26211075, year = {2015}, author = {Liu, ZL and Yuan, XW and Yang, LL and Yan, LP and Tian, YJ and Chen, JH}, title = {[Effect of climate change on the fisheries conununity pattern in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {901-911}, pmid = {26211075}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; *Fishes ; Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Principal Component Analysis ; Seasons ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Data sets of 26 fisheries target species from the fishery-depen-dent and fishery-independent surveys in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea (OW-NECS), combined sea surface temperature (SST), were used to examine the links between diversity index, pattern of common variability and climate changes based on the principal component analysis (PCA) and generalized additive model (GAM). The results showed that the shift from a cold regime to a warm regime was detected in SST during the 1970s-2011 with step changes around 1982/ 1983. SST increased during the cold regime and the warm regime before 1998 (warming trend period, 1972-1998), and decreased during the warm regime after 1998 (cooling trend period, 1999-2011). Shannon diversity index was largely dependent on the filefish, which contributed up to 50% of the total production as a single species, with low diversity in the waters of the OW-NECS, during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Excluding the filefish, the diversity index linearly increased and decreased during 1972-1998 and 1999-2011, respectively. The variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, strongly suggesting the effect of the SST on the diversity. The first two components (PC1 and PC2) of PCA for target species, which accounted for 32.43% of the total variance, showed evident decadal variation patterns with a step change during 1992-1999 and inter-annual variability with short-period fluctuation, respectively. It seems that PC1 was associated with large scale climatic change, while PC2 was related to inter-annual oceanographic variability such as ENSO events. Linear fitting results showed winEOF1 had significant effect on PC1, and GAM analysis for PC1 showed that winter EOF1 (winEOF1) and summer EOF2 (sumEOF2) can explain 88.9% of the total variance. Nonlinear effect was also found between PC2 and win EOF1, indicating that the fish community structure, which had predominantly decadal/inter-annual variation patterns, was influenced by inter-annual variations in oceanographic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid26211061, year = {2015}, author = {Tian, Z and Niu, YL and Sun, LX and Li, CS and Liu, CJ and Fan, DL}, title = {[China's rice field greenhouse gas emission under climate change based on DNDC model simulation].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {793-799}, pmid = {26211061}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Air Pollutants ; China ; *Climate Change ; Gases ; Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/*analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; *Oryza ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In contrast to a large body of literature assessing the impact of agriculture greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change, there is a lack of research examining the impact of climate change on agricultural GHG emissions. This study employed the DNDC v9.5, a state-of-art biogeochemical model, to simulate greenhouse gas emissions in China' s rice-growing fields during 1971-2010. The results showed that owing to temperature rising (on average 0.49 °C higher in the second 20 years than in the first 20 year) and precipitation increase (11 mm more in the second 20 years than in the first 20 years) during the rice growing season, CH4 and N2O emissions in paddy field increased by 0.25 kg C . hm-2 and 0.25 kg N . hm-2, respectively. The rising temperature accelerated CH4 emission and N2O emission increased with precipitation. These results indicated that climate change exerted impact on the mechanism of GHG emissions in paddy field.}, }
@article {pmid26207894, year = {2016}, author = {Chang, J and Ciais, P and Viovy, N and Vuichard, N and Herrero, M and Havlík, P and Wang, X and Sultan, B and Soussana, JF}, title = {Effect of climate change, CO2 trends, nitrogen addition, and land-cover and management intensity changes on the carbon balance of European grasslands.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {338-350}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13050}, pmid = {26207894}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Air Pollution ; Animals ; Carbon/chemistry ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Grassland ; Livestock ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/chemistry ; Soil/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Several lines of evidence point to European managed grassland ecosystems being a sink of carbon. In this study, we apply ORCHIDEE-GM a process-based carbon cycle model that describes specific management practices of pastures and the dynamics of carbon cycling in response to changes in climatic and biogeochemical drivers. The model is used to simulate changes in the carbon balance [i.e., net biome production (NBP)] of European grasslands over 1991-2010 on a 25 km × 25 km grid. The modeled average trend in NBP is 1.8-2.0 g C m(-2) yr(-2) during the past two decades. Attribution of this trend suggests management intensity as the dominant driver explaining NBP trends in the model (36-43% of the trend due to all drivers). A major change in grassland management intensity has occurred across Europe resulting from reduced livestock numbers. This change has 'inadvertently' enhanced soil C sequestration and reduced N2 O and CH4 emissions by 1.2-1.5 Gt CO2 -equivalent, offsetting more than 7% of greenhouse gas emissions in the whole European agricultural sector during the period 1991-2010. Land-cover change, climate change and rising CO2 also make positive and moderate contributions to the NBP trend (between 24% and 31% of the trend due to all drivers). Changes in nitrogen addition (including fertilization and atmospheric deposition) are found to have only marginal net effect on NBP trends. However, this may not reflect reality because our model has only a very simple parameterization of nitrogen effects on photosynthesis. The sum of NBP trends from each driver is larger than the trend obtained when all drivers are varied together, leaving a residual - nonattributed - term (22-26% of the trend due to all drivers) indicating negative interactions between drivers.}, }
@article {pmid26207160, year = {2015}, author = {D'Amato, G and Holgate, ST and Pawankar, R and Ledford, DK and Cecchi, L and Al-Ahmad, M and Al-Enezi, F and Al-Muhsen, S and Ansotegui, I and Baena-Cagnani, CE and Baker, DJ and Bayram, H and Bergmann, KC and Boulet, LP and Buters, JT and D'Amato, M and Dorsano, S and Douwes, J and Finlay, SE and Garrasi, D and Gómez, M and Haahtela, T and Halwani, R and Hassani, Y and Mahboub, B and Marks, G and Michelozzi, P and Montagni, M and Nunes, C and Oh, JJ and Popov, TA and Portnoy, J and Ridolo, E and Rosário, N and Rottem, M and Sánchez-Borges, M and Sibanda, E and Sienra-Monge, JJ and Vitale, C and Annesi-Maesano, I}, title = {Meteorological conditions, climate change, new emerging factors, and asthma and related allergic disorders. A statement of the World Allergy Organization.}, journal = {The World Allergy Organization journal}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {25}, pmid = {26207160}, issn = {1939-4551}, support = {G0800766/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The prevalence of allergic airway diseases such as asthma and rhinitis has increased dramatically to epidemic proportions worldwide. Besides air pollution from industry derived emissions and motor vehicles, the rising trend can only be explained by gross changes in the environments where we live. The world economy has been transformed over the last 25 years with developing countries being at the core of these changes. Around the planet, in both developed and developing countries, environments are undergoing profound changes. Many of these changes are considered to have negative effects on respiratory health and to enhance the frequency and severity of respiratory diseases such as asthma in the general population. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and especially carbon dioxide (CO2), in the atmosphere have already warmed the planet substantially, causing more severe and prolonged heat waves, variability in temperature, increased air pollution, forest fires, droughts, and floods - all of which can put the respiratory health of the public at risk. These changes in climate and air quality have a measurable impact not only on the morbidity but also the mortality of patients with asthma and other respiratory diseases. The massive increase in emissions of air pollutants due to economic and industrial growth in the last century has made air quality an environmental problem of the first order in a large number of regions of the world. A body of evidence suggests that major changes to our world are occurring and involve the atmosphere and its associated climate. These changes, including global warming induced by human activity, have an impact on the biosphere, biodiversity, and the human environment. Mitigating this huge health impact and reversing the effects of these changes are major challenges. This statement of the World Allergy Organization (WAO) raises the importance of this health hazard and highlights the facts on climate-related health impacts, including: deaths and acute morbidity due to heat waves and extreme meteorological events; increased frequency of acute cardio-respiratory events due to higher concentrations of ground level ozone; changes in the frequency of respiratory diseases due to trans-boundary particle pollution; altered spatial and temporal distribution of allergens (pollens, molds, and mites); and some infectious disease vectors. According to this report, these impacts will not only affect those with current asthma but also increase the incidence and prevalence of allergic respiratory conditions and of asthma. The effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still not well defined, and more studies addressing this topic are needed. Global warming is expected to affect the start, duration, and intensity of the pollen season on the one hand, and the rate of asthma exacerbations due to air pollution, respiratory infections, and/or cold air inhalation, and other conditions on the other hand.}, }
@article {pmid26202859, year = {2015}, author = {Ye, J and Xiao, Z and Li, C and Wang, F and Liao, J and Fu, J and Zhang, Z}, title = {Past climate change and recent anthropogenic activities affect genetic structure and population demography of the greater long-tailed hamster in northern China.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {482-496}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12150}, pmid = {26202859}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; China ; *Climate Change ; Cricetinae/*genetics ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {The genetic diversity and the spatial structure of a species are likely consequences of both past and recent evolutionary processes, but relevant studies are still rare in East Asia where the Pleistocene climate has unique influences. In this study, we examined the impact of past climate change and recent anthropogenic activities on the genetic structure and population size of the greater long-tailed hamster (Tscherskia triton), an agricultural rodent pest species in northern China. DNA sequence data of 2 mitochondrial genes and genotypic data of 11 microsatellite DNA loci from 41 populations (545 individuals) were gathered. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses, as well as species distribution modeling and coalescent simulations, were conducted to infer its historical and demographic patterns and processes. Two deeply diverged mitochondrial clades were recovered. A small one was restricted to the Shandong Peninsula while the main clade was further divided into 3 geographic clusters by their microsatellite DNA genotypes: Northwest, North-center and Northeast. Divergence dating indicated a Middle-to-Late Pleistocene divergence between the 2 clades. Demographic analysis indicated that all 3 and pooled populations showed consistent long-period expansions during last glacial period; but not during the Holocene, probably due to the impact of climate warming and human disturbances. Conflicting patterns between mtDNA and microsatellite markers imply an anthropogenic impact on North-center populations due to intensified agricultural cultivation in this region. Our study demonstrated that the impact of past glaciation on organisms in East Asia significantly differs from that of Europe and North America, and human activity is an important factor in determining the genetic diversity of a species, as well as its spatial structure.}, }
@article {pmid26199359, year = {2015}, author = {Edwards, CE}, title = {Looking to the future of conservation genetics: The case for using quantitative genetic experiments to estimate the ability of rare plants to withstand climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {102}, number = {7}, pages = {1011-1013}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1500145}, pmid = {26199359}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Endangered Species ; Genotype ; Plants/*genetics ; }, }
@article {pmid26193759, year = {2015}, author = {Robillard, CM and Coristine, LE and Soares, RN and Kerr, JT}, title = {Facilitating climate-change-induced range shifts across continental land-use barriers.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {1586-1595}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12556}, pmid = {26193759}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; North America ; Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {Climate changes impose requirements for many species to shift their ranges to remain within environmentally tolerable areas, but near-continuous regions of intense human land use stretching across continental extents diminish dispersal prospects for many species. We reviewed the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on species' abilities to track changing climates and existing plans to facilitate species dispersal in response to climate change through regions of intensive land uses, drawing on examples from North America and elsewhere. We identified an emerging analytical framework that accounts for variation in species' dispersal capacities relative to both the pace of climate change and habitat availability. Habitat loss and fragmentation hinder climate change tracking, particularly for specialists, by impeding both propagule dispersal and population growth. This framework can be used to identify prospective modern-era climatic refugia, where the pace of climate change has been slower than surrounding areas, that are defined relative to individual species' needs. The framework also underscores the importance of identifying and managing dispersal pathways or corridors through semi-continental land use barriers that can benefit many species simultaneously. These emerging strategies to facilitate range shifts must account for uncertainties around population adaptation to local environmental conditions. Accounting for uncertainties in climate change and dispersal capabilities among species and expanding biological monitoring programs within an adaptive management paradigm are vital strategies that will improve species' capacities to track rapidly shifting climatic conditions across landscapes dominated by intensive human land use.}, }
@article {pmid26193300, year = {2015}, author = {Yusa, A and Berry, P and J Cheng, J and Ogden, N and Bonsal, B and Stewart, R and Waldick, R}, title = {Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {8359-8412}, pmid = {26193300}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; *Agriculture ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Food Supply ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Stress, Psychological ; }, abstract = {Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.}, }
@article {pmid26189184, year = {2015}, author = {Adenle, AA and Azadi, H and Arbiol, J}, title = {Global assessment of technological innovation for climate change adaptation and mitigation in developing world.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {161}, number = {}, pages = {261-275}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.05.040}, pmid = {26189184}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics/*methods ; Biotechnology/economics/methods ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/*methods/trends ; *Developing Countries ; Humans ; Informatics/economics/methods ; *Inventions/economics/trends ; Renewable Energy/economics ; }, abstract = {Concerns about mitigating and adapting to climate change resulted in renewing the incentive for agricultural research investments and developing further innovation priorities around the world particularly in developing countries. In the near future, development of new agricultural measures and proper diffusion of technologies will greatly influence the ability of farmers in adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Using bibliometric approaches through output of academic journal publications and patent-based data, we assess the impact of research and development (R&amp;D) for new and existing technologies within the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We show that many developing countries invest limited resources for R&amp;D in relevant technologies that have great potential for mitigation and adaption in agricultural production. We also discuss constraints including weak infrastructure, limited research capacity, lack of credit facilities and technology transfer that may hinder the application of innovation in tackling the challenges of climate change. A range of policy measures is also suggested to overcome identified constraints and to ensure that potentials of innovation for climate change mitigation and adaptation are realized.}, }
@article {pmid26188405, year = {2015}, author = {Guse, B and Kail, J and Radinger, J and Schröder, M and Kiesel, J and Hering, D and Wolter, C and Fohrer, N}, title = {Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {533}, number = {}, pages = {542-556}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.078}, pmid = {26188405}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Hydrology ; Invertebrates/*physiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; Water Movements ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on river ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid26187862, year = {2016}, author = {Bird, DN and Benabdallah, S and Gouda, N and Hummel, F and Koeberl, J and La Jeunesse, I and Meyer, S and Prettenthaler, F and Soddu, A and Woess-Gallasch, S}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts on and adaptation strategies for agriculture in Sardinia and Tunisia using AquaCrop and value-at-risk.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {543}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {1019-1027}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.035}, pmid = {26187862}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In Europe, there is concern that climate change will cause significant impacts around the Mediterranean. The goals of this study are to quantify the economic risk to crop production, to demonstrate the variability of yield by soil texture and climate model and to investigate possible adaptation strategies. In the Rio Mannu di San Sperate watershed, located in Sardinia (Italy) we investigate production of wheat, a rainfed crop. In the Chiba watershed located in Cap Bon (Tunisia), we analyze irrigated tomato production. We find, using the FAO model AquaCrop that crop production will decrease significantly in a future climate (2040-2070) as compared to the present without adaptation measures. Using "value-at-risk", we show that production should be viewed in a statistical manner. Wheat yields in Sardinia are modelled to decrease by 64% on clay loams, and to increase by 8% and 26% respectively on sandy loams and sandy clay loams. Assuming constant irrigation, tomatoes sown in August in Cap Bon are modelled to have a 45% chance of crop failure on loamy sands; a 39% decrease in yields on sandy clay loams; and a 12% increase in yields on sandy loams. For tomatoes sown in March; sandy clay loams will fail 81% of the time; on loamy sands the crop yields will be 63% less while on sandy loams, the yield will increase by 12%. However, if one assume 10% less water available for irrigation then tomatoes sown in March are not viable. Some adaptation strategies will be able to counteract the modelled crop losses. Increasing the amount of irrigation one strategy however this may not be sustainable. Changes in agricultural management such as changing the planting date of wheat to coincide with changing rainfall patterns in Sardinia or mulching of tomatoes in Tunisia can be effective at reducing crop losses.}, }
@article {pmid26186156, year = {2015}, author = {Luxem, KE and Lin, VS}, title = {Research highlights: modelling to assess climate change impacts and promote development.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {17}, number = {8}, pages = {1359-1362}, doi = {10.1039/c5em90029h}, pmid = {26186156}, issn = {2050-7895}, abstract = {We highlight four recent articles on biophysical modelling for the Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) Deltas project in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta system. These publications are part of a themed collection in Environmental Science: Processes &amp; Impacts and contribute to a larger body of collaborative work that aims to assess the impacts of changing climate, policy, and development efforts on vulnerable populations in the GBM delta.}, }
@article {pmid26185070, year = {2015}, author = {Vezzulli, L and Pezzati, E and Brettar, I and Höfle, M and Pruzzo, C}, title = {Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.}, journal = {Microbiology spectrum}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1128/microbiolspec.VE-0004-2014}, pmid = {26185070}, issn = {2165-0497}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*microbiology ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; North Sea ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/microbiology ; Temperature ; Vibrio/*growth &amp; development/pathogenicity ; Vibrio Infections/*microbiology/pathology ; Water Microbiology ; Zooplankton/*microbiology ; }, abstract = {Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause.}, }
@article {pmid26184272, year = {2015}, author = {Hanna, EG and Tait, PW}, title = {Limitations to Thermoregulation and Acclimatization Challenge Human Adaptation to Global Warming.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {8034-8074}, pmid = {26184272}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Adaptation, Physiological ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; Child ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Environment ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Human thermoregulation and acclimatization are core components of the human coping mechanism for withstanding variations in environmental heat exposure. Amidst growing recognition that curtailing global warming to less than two degrees is becoming increasing improbable, human survival will require increasing reliance on these mechanisms. The projected several fold increase in extreme heat events suggests we need to recalibrate health protection policies and ratchet up adaptation efforts. Climate researchers, epidemiologists, and policy makers engaged in climate change adaptation and health protection are not commonly drawn from heat physiology backgrounds. Injecting a scholarly consideration of physiological limitations to human heat tolerance into the adaptation and policy literature allows for a broader understanding of heat health risks to support effective human adaptation and adaptation planning. This paper details the physiological and external environmental factors that determine human thermoregulation and acclimatization. We present a model to illustrate the interrelationship between elements that modulate the physiological process of thermoregulation. Limitations inherent in these processes, and the constraints imposed by differing exposure levels, and thermal comfort seeking on achieving acclimatization, are then described. Combined, these limitations will restrict the likely contribution that acclimatization can play in future human adaptation to global warming. We postulate that behavioral and technological adaptations will need to become the dominant means for human individual and societal adaptations as global warming progresses.}, }
@article {pmid26179346, year = {2015}, author = {Firn, J and Maggini, R and Chadès, I and Nicol, S and Walters, B and Reeson, A and Martin, TG and Possingham, HP and Pichancourt, JB and Ponce-Reyes, R and Carwardine, J}, title = {Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {3917-3930}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13034}, pmid = {26179346}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/*methods ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Endangered Species ; *Introduced Species ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one-sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility, and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost-effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall, we find that the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision-making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected.}, }
@article {pmid26177788, year = {2015}, author = {Confalonieri, UE and Menezes, JA and Margonari de Souza, C}, title = {Climate change and adaptation of the health sector: The case of infectious diseases.}, journal = {Virulence}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {554-557}, pmid = {26177788}, issn = {2150-5608}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*methods/*organization &amp; administration ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Epidemiologic Methods ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Infectious diseases form a group of health problems highly susceptible to the influences of climate. Adaptation to protect human population health from the changes in infectious disease epidemiology expected to occur as a consequence of climate change involve actions in the health systems as well as in other non-health sectors. In the health sector strategies such as enhanced and targeted epidemiological and entomological surveillance and the development of epidemic early warning systems informed by climate scenarios are needed. Measures in other sectors such as meteorology, civil defense and environmental sanitation will also contribute to a reduction in the risk of infection under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26177545, year = {2015}, author = {Neiva, J and Assis, J and Coelho, NC and Fernandes, F and Pearson, GA and Serrão, EA}, title = {Genes Left Behind: Climate Change Threatens Cryptic Genetic Diversity in the Canopy-Forming Seaweed Bifurcaria bifurcata.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {e0131530}, pmid = {26177545}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Europe ; Evolution, Molecular ; Genetic Variation ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Organelles/genetics ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; Seaweed/*genetics ; }, abstract = {The global redistribution of biodiversity will intensify in the coming decades of climate change, making projections of species range shifts and of associated genetic losses important components of conservation planning. Highly-structured marine species, notably brown seaweeds, often harbor unique genetic variation at warmer low-latitude rear edges and thus are of particular concern. Here, a combination of Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) and molecular data is used to forecast the potential near-future impacts of climate change for a warm-temperate, canopy forming seaweed, Bifurcaria bifurcata. ENMs for B. bifurcata were developed using marine and terrestrial climatic variables, and its range projected for 2040-50 and 2090-2100 under two greenhouse emission scenarios. Geographical patterns of genetic diversity were assessed by screening 18 populations spawning the entire distribution for two organelle genes and 6 microsatellite markers. The southern limit of B. bifurcata was predicted to shift northwards to central Morocco by the mid-century. By 2090-2100, depending on the emission scenario, it could either retreat further north to western Iberia or be relocated back to Western Sahara. At the opposing margin, B. bifurcata was predicted to expand its range to Scotland or even Norway. Microsatellite diversity and endemism were highest in Morocco, where a unique and very restricted lineage was also identified. Our results imply that B. bifurcata will maintain a relatively broad latitudinal distribution. Although its persistence is not threatened, the predicted extirpation of a unique southern lineage or even the entire Moroccan diversity hotspot will erase a rich evolutionary legacy and shrink global diversity to current (low) European levels. NW Africa and similarly understudied southern regions should receive added attention if expected range changes and diversity loss of warm-temperate species is not to occur unnoticed.}, }
@article {pmid26177539, year = {2015}, author = {, }, title = {Correction: Simple Messages Help Set the Record Straight about Scientific Agreement on Human-Caused Climate Change: The Results of Two Experiments.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {e0133103}, pmid = {26177539}, issn = {1932-6203}, }
@article {pmid26177398, year = {2015}, author = {Yazdanfar, Z and Sharma, A}, title = {Urban drainage system planning and design--challenges with climate change and urbanization: a review.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {72}, number = {2}, pages = {165-179}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2015.207}, pmid = {26177398}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Drainage, Sanitary/*methods ; Floods ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Urban drainage systems are in general failing in their functions mainly due to non-stationary climate and rapid urbanization. As these systems are becoming less efficient, issues such as sewer overflows and increase in urban flooding leading to surge in pollutant loads to receiving water bodies are becoming pervasive rapidly. A comprehensive investigation is required to understand these factors impacting the functioning of urban drainage, which vary spatially and temporally and are more complex when weaving together. It is necessary to establish a cost-effective, integrated planning and design framework for every local area by incorporating fit for purpose alternatives. Carefully selected adaptive measures are required for the provision of sustainable drainage systems to meet combined challenges of climate change and urbanization. This paper reviews challenges associated with urban drainage systems and explores limitations and potentials of different adaptation alternatives. It is hoped that the paper would provide drainage engineers, water planners, and decision makers with the state of the art information and technologies regarding adaptation options to increase drainage systems efficiency under changing climate and urbanization.}, }
@article {pmid26177285, year = {2015}, author = {Reguero, BG and Losada, IJ and Díaz-Simal, P and Méndez, FJ and Beck, MW}, title = {Effects of Climate Change on Exposure to Coastal Flooding in Latin America and the Caribbean.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {e0133409}, pmid = {26177285}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Caribbean Region ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; *Floods ; Geography ; Latin America ; Risk Factors ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {This study considers and compares several of the most important factors contributing to coastal flooding in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) while accounting for the variations of these factors with location and time. The study assesses the populations, the land areas and the built capital exposed at present and at the middle and end of the 21st century for a set of scenarios that include both climatic and non-climatic drivers. Climatic drivers include global mean sea level, natural modes of climate variability such as El Niño, natural subsidence, and extreme sea levels resulting from the combination of projected local sea-level rise, storm surges and wave setup. Population is the only human-related driver accounted for in the future. Without adaptation, more than 4 million inhabitants will be exposed to flooding from relative sea-level rise by the end of the century, assuming the 8.5 W m-2 trajectory of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), or RCP8.5. However, the contributions from El Niño events substantially raise the threat in several Pacific-coast countries of the region and sooner than previously anticipated. At the tropical Pacific coastlines, the exposure by the mid-century for an event similar to El Niño 1998 would be comparable to that of the RCP4.5 relative sea-level rise by the end of the century. Furthermore, more than 7.5 million inhabitants, 42,600 km2 and built capital valued at 334 billion USD are currently situated at elevations below the 100-year extreme sea level. With sea levels rising and the population increasing, it is estimated that more than 9 million inhabitants will be exposed by the end of the century for either of the RCPs considered. The spatial distribution of exposure and the comparison of scenarios and timeframes can serve as a guide in future adaptation and risk reduction policies in the region.}, }
@article {pmid26177097, year = {2015}, author = {Tejedor Garavito, N and Newton, AC and Golicher, D and Oldfield, S}, title = {The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {e0131388}, pmid = {26177097}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Endangered Species ; Extinction, Biological ; Forests ; Risk Assessment ; South America ; Stress, Physiological ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid26175362, year = {2015}, author = {Lodge, A}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change is here: Family physicians must respond to the crisis.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {61}, number = {7}, pages = {582-3, e293-4}, pmid = {26175362}, issn = {1715-5258}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Family Practice ; Humans ; *Physicians, Family ; }, }
@article {pmid26175138, year = {2015}, author = {Robinson, DL}, title = {Wood burning stoves produce PM2.5 particles in amounts similar to traffic and increase global warming.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {351}, number = {}, pages = {h3738}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.h3738}, pmid = {26175138}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; Energy-Generating Resources/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Policy ; *Global Warming ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/*adverse effects ; United Kingdom ; *Wood ; }, }
@article {pmid26174686, year = {2015}, author = {Zivanovic, G and Arenas, C and Mestres, F}, title = {Medium-term changes in Drosophila subobscura chromosomal inversion polymorphism: a possible relation with global warming?.}, journal = {Journal of genetics}, volume = {94}, number = {2}, pages = {343-346}, pmid = {26174686}, issn = {0973-7731}, mesh = {Animals ; Chromosome Inversion/*genetics ; Drosophila/*genetics ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Meteorological Concepts ; *Polymorphism, Genetic ; Serbia ; }, }
@article {pmid26174483, year = {2015}, author = {Blanckenhorn, WU}, title = {Investigating yellow dung fly body size evolution in the field: Response to climate change?.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {69}, number = {8}, pages = {2227-2234}, doi = {10.1111/evo.12726}, pmid = {26174483}, issn = {1558-5646}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Body Size ; Climate Change ; Diptera/genetics/*physiology ; Female ; Genetic Variation ; Male ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Uncovering genetic responses to selection in wild populations typically requires tracking individuals over generations and use of animal models. Our group monitored the body size of one Swiss Yellow Dung Fly (Scathophaga stercoraria; Diptera: Scathophagidae) field population over 15 years, including intermittent common-garden rearing in the laboratory to assess body size with minimized environmental and maximized genetic variation. Contrary to expectations based on repeated heritability and phenotypic selection assessments over the years (reported elsewhere), field body sizes declined by >10% and common-garden laboratory sizes by >5% from 1993 to 2009. Our results confirm the temperature-size rule (smaller when warmer) and, albeit entirely correlational, could be mediated by climate change, as over this period mean temperature at the site increased by 0.5°C, although alternative systematic environmental changes cannot be entirely excluded. Monitoring genetic responses to selection in wild invertebrate populations is thus possible, though indirect, and wild populations may evolve in directions not consistent with strongly positive directional selection favoring large body size.}, }
@article {pmid26173081, year = {2015}, author = {Ashraf, MI and Meng, FR and Bourque, CP and MacLean, DA}, title = {A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {e0132066}, pmid = {26173081}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Models, Statistical ; Neural Networks, Computer ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, abstract = {Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA) and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model). Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS) of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and volume: 0.0008 m(3) 5-year(-1)). Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE) in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and 0.0393 m(3) 5-year(-1) in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence technology has substantial potential in forest modelling.}, }
@article {pmid26172590, year = {2015}, author = {Mouri, G}, title = {Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {533}, number = {}, pages = {238-246}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.06.118}, pmid = {26172590}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {UNLABELLED: For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity appears to vary exponentially, this phenomenon has an impact on the management of social capital, such as drinking water services. Prediction of the impacts of future climate change on fluvial wash-load sediment is crucial for effective environmental planning and the management of social capital to adapt to the next century.<br><br>CAPSULE: We demonstrate that simulations comprise an ensemble of factors, including multiple physical configurations, associated with the wash-load component for the whole of Japan.}, }
@article {pmid26172143, year = {2015}, author = {, }, title = {Correction: The Long Term Response of Birds to Climate Change: New Results from a Cold Stage Avifauna in Northern England.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {e0133107}, pmid = {26172143}, issn = {1932-6203}, }
@article {pmid26170115, year = {2016}, author = {Sellami, H and Benabdallah, S and La Jeunesse, I and Vanclooster, M}, title = {Quantifying hydrological responses of small Mediterranean catchments under climate change projections.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {543}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {924-936}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.006}, pmid = {26170115}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Catchment flow regimes alteration is likely to be a prominent consequence of climate change projections in the Mediterranean. Here we explore the potential effects of climatic change on the flow regime of the Thau and the Chiba catchments which are located in Southern France and Northeastern Tunisia, respectively. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model is forced with projections from an ensemble of 4 climate model (CM) to assess changes and uncertainty in relevant hydrological indicators related to water balance, magnitude, frequency and timing of the flow between a reference (1971-2000) and future (2041-2071) periods. Results indicate that both catchments are likely to experience a decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the future. Consequently, runoff and soil water content are projected to decrease whereas potential evapotranspiration is likely to increase in both catchments. Yet uncertain, the projected magnitudes of these changes are higher in the wet period than in the dry period. Analyses of extreme flow show similar trend in both catchments, projecting a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations. Further, significant increase in low flow frequency as a proxy for hydrological droughts is projected for both catchments but with higher uncertainty in the wet period than in the dry period. Although no changes in the average timing of maximum and minimum flow events for different flow durations are projected, substantial uncertainty remains in the hydrological projections. While the results in both catchments show consistent trend of change for most of the hydrologic indicators, the overall degree of alteration on the flow regime of the Chiba catchment is projected to be higher than that of the Thau catchment. The projected magnitudes of alteration as well as their associated uncertainty vary depending on the catchment characteristics and flow seasonality.}, }
@article {pmid26166919, year = {2015}, author = {Fernández-Llamazares, &#xc1; and Méndez-López, ME and Díaz-Reviriego, I and McBride, MF and Pyhälä, A and Rosell-Melé, A and Reyes-García, V}, title = {Links between media communication and local perceptions of climate change in an indigenous society.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {131}, number = {2}, pages = {307-320}, pmid = {26166919}, issn = {0165-0009}, support = {261971/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Indigenous societies hold a great deal of ethnoclimatological knowledge that could potentially be of key importance for both climate change science and local adaptation; yet, we lack studies examining how such knowledge might be shaped by media communication. This study systematically investigates the interplay between local observations of climate change and the reception of media information amongst the Tsimane', an indigenous society of Bolivian Amazonia where the scientific discourse of anthropogenic climate change has barely reached. Specifically, we conducted a Randomized Evaluation with a sample of 424 household heads in 12 villages to test to what degree local accounts of climate change are influenced by externally influenced awareness. We randomly assigned villages to a treatment and control group, conducted workshops on climate change with villages in the treatment group, and evaluated the effects of information dissemination on individual climate change perceptions. Results of this work suggest that providing climate change information through participatory workshops does not noticeably influence individual perceptions of climate change. Such findings stress the challenges involved in translating between local and scientific framings of climate change, and gives cause for concern about how to integrate indigenous peoples and local knowledge with global climate change policy debates.}, }
@article {pmid26164841, year = {2015}, author = {Lankford-Bingle, AJ and Svancara, LK and Vierling, K}, title = {A New Framework for Spatio-temporal Climate Change Impact Assessment for Terrestrial Wildlife.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {56}, number = {6}, pages = {1514-1527}, pmid = {26164841}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Idaho ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Strigiformes/*physiology ; }, abstract = {We describe a first step framework for climate change species' impact assessments that produces spatially and temporally heterogeneous models of climate impacts. Case study results are provided for great gray owl (Strix nebulosa) in Idaho as an example of framework application. This framework applies species-specific sensitivity weights to spatial and seasonal models of climate exposure to produce spatial and seasonal models of climate impact. We also evaluated three methods of calculating sensitivity by comparing spatial models of combined exposure and sensitivity. We found the methods used to calculated sensitivity showed little difference, except where sensitivity was directional (i.e., more sensitive to an increase in temperature than a decrease). This approach may assist in the development of State Wildlife Action Plans and other wildlife management plans in the face of potential future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26162961, year = {2015}, author = {González-Alcaraz, MN and van Gestel, CA}, title = {Climate change effects on enchytraeid performance in metal-polluted soils explained from changes in metal bioavailability and bioaccumulation.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {142}, number = {}, pages = {177-184}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2015.06.027}, pmid = {26162961}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Availability ; *Climate Change ; Metals, Heavy/metabolism/*toxicity ; Oligochaeta/*drug effects/metabolism/physiology ; Reproduction/drug effects ; Soil Pollutants/metabolism/*toxicity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change may alter physical, chemical and biological properties of ecosystems, affecting organisms but also the fate of chemical pollutants. This study aimed to find out how changes in climate conditions (air temperature, soil moisture content) affect the toxicity of metal-polluted soils to the soft-bodied soil organism Enchytraeus crypticus, linking enchytraeid performance with changes in soil available and body metal concentrations. Bioassays with E. crypticus were performed under different combinations of air temperature (20 and 25 °C) and soil moisture content (50% and 30% of the soil water holding capacity, WHC) in dilution series of three metal-polluted soils (mine tailing, forest and watercourse). After 21 d exposure, enchytraeid reproduction was determined, and soil available (extracted with 0.01 M CaCl2) and body Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn concentrations in surviving adults were determined. In general, Cd, Pb and Zn availability decreased upon incubation under the different climate scenarios. In the watercourse soil, with initially higher available metal concentrations (678 µg Cd kg(-1), 807 µg Pb kg(-1) and 31,020 µg Zn kg(-1)), decreases were greatest at 50% WHC probably due to metal immobilization as carbonates. Enchytraeid reproduction was negatively affected by higher available metal concentrations, with reductions up to 98% in the watercourse soil compared to the control soil at 30% WHC. Bioaccumulation of Cd, Pb and Zn was higher when drier conditions were combined with the higher temperature of 25 °C. Changes in metal bioavailability and bioaccumulation explained the toxicity of soil polluted by metal mine wastes to enchytraeids under changing environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid26160945, year = {2015}, author = {Kerr, JT and Pindar, A and Galpern, P and Packer, L and Potts, SG and Roberts, SM and Rasmont, P and Schweiger, O and Colla, SR and Richardson, LL and Wagner, DL and Gall, LF and Sikes, DS and Pantoja, A}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {349}, number = {6244}, pages = {177-180}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaa7031}, pmid = {26160945}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees/drug effects/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Extinction, Biological ; North America ; Pesticides/adverse effects ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {For many species, geographical ranges are expanding toward the poles in response to climate change, while remaining stable along range edges nearest the equator. Using long-term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years, we tested for climate change-related range shifts in bumblebee species across the full extents of their latitudinal and thermal limits and movements along elevation gradients. We found cross-continentally consistent trends in failures to track warming through time at species' northern range limits, range losses from southern range limits, and shifts to higher elevations among southern species. These effects are independent of changing land uses or pesticide applications and underscore the need to test for climate impacts at both leading and trailing latitudinal and thermal limits for species.}, }
@article {pmid26160921, year = {2015}, author = {Carswell, C}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. Bumblebees aren't keeping up with a warming planet.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {349}, number = {6244}, pages = {126-127}, doi = {10.1126/science.349.6244.126}, pmid = {26160921}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Bees/drug effects/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; North America ; Pesticides/adverse effects ; *Pollination ; Population ; }, }
@article {pmid26160379, year = {2015}, author = {Nieves, V and Willis, JK and Patzert, WC}, title = {GLOBAL WARMING. Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {349}, number = {6247}, pages = {532-535}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaa4521}, pmid = {26160379}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Recent modeling studies have proposed different scenarios to explain the slowdown in surface temperature warming in the most recent decade. Some of these studies seem to support the idea of internal variability and/or rearrangement of heat between the surface and the ocean interior. Others suggest that radiative forcing might also play a role. Our examination of observational data over the past two decades shows some significant differences when compared to model results from reanalyses and provides the most definitive explanation of how the heat was redistributed. We find that cooling in the top 100-meter layer of the Pacific Ocean was mainly compensated for by warming in the 100- to 300-meter layer of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in the past decade since 2003.}, }
@article {pmid26159416, year = {2015}, author = {Asch, RG}, title = {Climate change and decadal shifts in the phenology of larval fishes in the California Current ecosystem.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {30}, pages = {E4065-74}, pmid = {26159416}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; California ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; Ecosystem ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Fishes/*embryology/*physiology ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; Normal Distribution ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such changes are occurring in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling ecosystems, because these regions are subject to natural decadal climate variability, and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. To answer this question, the phenology of 43 species of larval fishes was investigated between 1951 and 2008 off southern California. Ordination of the fish community showed earlier phenological progression in more recent years. Thirty-nine percent of seasonal peaks in larval abundance occurred earlier in the year, whereas 18% were delayed. The species whose phenology became earlier were characterized by an offshore, pelagic distribution, whereas species with delayed phenology were more likely to reside in coastal, demersal habitats. Phenological changes were more closely associated with a trend toward earlier warming of surface waters rather than decadal climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Species with long-term advances and delays in phenology reacted similarly to warming at the interannual time scale as demonstrated by responses to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The trend toward earlier spawning was correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and mesozooplankton displacement volume, but not coastal upwelling. SST and upwelling were correlated with delays in fish phenology. For species with 20th century advances in phenology, future projections indicate that current trends will continue unabated. The fate of species with delayed phenology is less clear due to differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models in projected upwelling trends.}, }
@article {pmid26158846, year = {2015}, author = {Vetter, SG and Ruf, T and Bieber, C and Arnold, W}, title = {What Is a Mild Winter? Regional Differences in Within-Species Responses to Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {e0132178}, pmid = {26158846}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Weight/physiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Fagus/physiology ; Female ; Food ; Geography ; Male ; Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; *Seasons ; Sus scrofa/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is known to affect ecosystems globally, but our knowledge of its impact on large and widespread mammals, and possibly population-specific responses is still sparse. We investigated large-scale and long-term effects of climate change on local population dynamics using the wild boar (Sus scrofa L.) as a model species. Our results show that population increases across Europe are strongly associated with increasingly mild winters, yet with region-specific threshold temperatures for the onset of exponential growth. Additionally, we found that abundant availability of critical food resources, e.g. beech nuts, can outweigh the negative effects of cold winters on population growth of wild boar. Availability of beech nuts is highly variable and highest in years of beech mast which increased in frequency since 1980, according to our data. We conclude that climate change drives population growth of wild boar directly by relaxing the negative effect of cold winters on survival and reproduction, and indirectly by increasing food availability. However, region-specific responses need to be considered in order to fully understand a species' demographic response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26156137, year = {2015}, author = {Lu, Q and Johnson, AC and Jürgens, MD and Sweetman, A and Jin, L and Whitehead, P}, title = {The distribution of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) in the River Thames Catchment under the scenarios of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {533}, number = {}, pages = {187-195}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.06.084}, pmid = {26156137}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; England ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Polychlorinated Biphenyls/*analysis ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Measurements have shown low levels of PCBs in water but relatively high concentrations in the resident fish of the River Thames (UK). To better understand the distribution and behaviour of PCBs in the Thames river basin and their potential risks, a level III fugacity model was applied to selected PCB congeners (PCB 52, PCB 118 and PCB 153). The modelling results indicated that fish and sediments represent environmental compartments with the highest PCB concentrations; but the greatest mass of PCBs (over 70%) is likely to remain in the soil. As emissions decline, soil could then act as a significant secondary source of PCBs with the river bed-sediment functioning as a long-term reservoir of PCBs. The predicted changes in temperature and rainfall forecast in the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) over the next 80 years had only a modest influence on PCB fate in the model. The most significant result was a tendency for climate change to enhance the evaporation of PCBs from soil to air in the Thames catchment.}, }
@article {pmid26154876, year = {2015}, author = {Møller, AP and Nielsen, JT}, title = {Large increase in nest size linked to climate change: an indicator of life history, senescence and condition.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {179}, number = {3}, pages = {913-921}, pmid = {26154876}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Clutch Size ; Falconiformes ; Female ; Male ; *Nesting Behavior ; Raptors/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Many animals build extravagant nests that exceed the size required for successful reproduction. Large nests may signal the parenting ability of nest builders suggesting that nests may have a signaling function. In particular, many raptors build very large nests for their body size. We studied nest size in the goshawk Accipiter gentilis, which is a top predator throughout most of the Nearctic. Both males and females build nests, and males provision their females and offspring with food. Nest volume in the goshawk is almost three-fold larger than predicted from their body size. Nest size in the goshawk is highly variable and may reach more than 600 kg for a bird that weighs ca. 1 kg. While 8.5% of nests fell down, smaller nests fell down more often than large nests. There was a hump-shaped relationship between nest volume and female age, with a decline in nest volume late in life, as expected for senescence. Clutch size increased with nest volume. Nest volume increased during 1977-2014 in an accelerating fashion, linked to increasing spring temperature during April, when goshawks build and start reproduction. These findings are consistent with nest size being a reliable signal of parental ability, with large nest size signaling superior parenting ability and senescence, and also indicating climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid26152856, year = {2016}, author = {Rizzi, J and Torresan, S and Critto, A and Zabeo, A and Brigolin, D and Carniel, S and Pastres, R and Marcomini, A}, title = {Climate change impacts on marine water quality: The case study of the Northern Adriatic sea.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {102}, number = {2}, pages = {271-282}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.06.037}, pmid = {26152856}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Italy ; Mediterranean Sea ; Risk Assessment/methods ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Climate change is posing additional pressures on coastal ecosystems due to variations in water biogeochemical and physico-chemical parameters (e.g., pH, salinity) leading to aquatic ecosystem degradation. With the main aim of analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on marine water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic. It integrates the outputs of regional biogeochemical and physico-chemical models considering future climate change scenarios (i.e., years 2070 and 2100) with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators. Results showed that salinity and temperature will be the main drivers of changes, together with macronutrients, especially in the area of the Po' river delta. The final outputs are exposure, susceptibility and risk maps supporting the communication of the potential consequences of climate change on water quality to decision makers and stakeholders and provide a basis for the definition of adaptation and management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid26152518, year = {2015}, author = {Seebens, H and Essl, F and Dawson, W and Fuentes, N and Moser, D and Pergl, J and Pyšek, P and van Kleunen, M and Weber, E and Winter, M and Blasius, B}, title = {Global trade will accelerate plant invasions in emerging economies under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {4128-4140}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13021}, pmid = {26152518}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Commerce ; *Developing Countries ; *Introduced Species ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {Trade plays a key role in the spread of alien species and has arguably contributed to the recent enormous acceleration of biological invasions, thus homogenizing biotas worldwide. Combining data on 60-year trends of bilateral trade, as well as on biodiversity and climate, we modeled the global spread of plant species among 147 countries. The model results were compared with a recently compiled unique global data set on numbers of naturalized alien vascular plant species representing the most comprehensive collection of naturalized plant distributions currently available. The model identifies major source regions, introduction routes, and hot spots of plant invasions that agree well with observed naturalized plant numbers. In contrast to common knowledge, we show that the 'imperialist dogma,' stating that Europe has been a net exporter of naturalized plants since colonial times, does not hold for the past 60 years, when more naturalized plants were being imported to than exported from Europe. Our results highlight that the current distribution of naturalized plants is best predicted by socioeconomic activities 20 years ago. We took advantage of the observed time lag and used trade developments until recent times to predict naturalized plant trajectories for the next two decades. This shows that particularly strong increases in naturalized plant numbers are expected in the next 20 years for emerging economies in megadiverse regions. The interaction with predicted future climate change will increase invasions in northern temperate countries and reduce them in tropical and (sub)tropical regions, yet not by enough to cancel out the trade-related increase.}, }
@article {pmid26152508, year = {2015}, author = {Dasgupta, S and Hossain, MM and Huq, M and Wheeler, D}, title = {Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44}, number = {8}, pages = {815-826}, pmid = {26152508}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Econometric ; Rain ; Rivers ; *Salinity ; Soil/*chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001-2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher.}, }
@article {pmid26151649, year = {2015}, author = {Darnajoux, R and Lutzoni, F and Miadlikowska, J and Bellenger, JP}, title = {Determination of elemental baseline using peltigeralean lichens from Northeastern Canada (Québec): Initial data collection for long term monitoring of the impact of global climate change on boreal and subarctic area in Canada.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {533}, number = {}, pages = {1-7}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.06.030}, pmid = {26151649}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis/*standards ; Air Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Lichens/*chemistry ; Quebec ; }, abstract = {Northeastern Canada is mostly free of anthropogenic activities. The extent to which this territory has been impacted by anthropogenic atmospheric depositions remains to be studied. The main goal of our study was to establish background levels for metals in boreal muscicolous/terricolous macrolichens over non-urbanized areas of northeastern Canada (Québec). Concentrations of 18 elements (Na, Mg, Al, P, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Mo, Cd, and Pb) were determined for three species of the genus Peltigera (Peltigera aphthosa (L.) Willd. s.l., Peltigera neopolydactyla (Gyeln.) Gyeln. s.l., Peltigera scabrosa Th. Fr. s.l.), and Nephroma arcticum (L.) Torss., along a 1080 km south-north transect and along a of 730 km west-east transect. We report that elemental contents in the sampled lichen thalli are very low and similar to background levels found in other studies performed in pristine places (high elevation or remote ecosystems) throughout the world. Overall, our results demonstrate that most of the boreal and subarctic zone of Québec (northeastern Canada) is still pristine. The elemental baseline established in these lichen populations will contribute to monitor metal pollution in boreal and sub-polar ecosystems due to global climate change and future industrial expansion.}, }
@article {pmid26151221, year = {2015}, author = {McMichael, C}, title = {Climate change-related migration and infectious disease.}, journal = {Virulence}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {548-553}, pmid = {26151221}, issn = {2150-5608}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Global Health ; *Human Migration ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change will have significant impacts on both human migration and population health, including infectious disease. It will amplify and alter migration pathways, and will contribute to the changing ecology and transmission dynamics of infectious disease. However there has been limited consideration of the intersections between migration and health in the context of a changing climate. This article argues that climate-change related migration - in conjunction with other drivers of migration - will contribute to changing profiles of infectious disease. It considers infectious disease risks for different climate-related migration pathways, including: forced displacement, slow-onset migration particularly to urban-poor areas, planned resettlement, and labor migration associated with climate change adaptation initiatives. Migration can reduce vulnerability to climate change, but it is critical to better understand and respond to health impacts - including infectious diseases - for migrant populations and host communities.}, }
@article {pmid26150369, year = {2015}, author = {Phua, KL}, title = {Redesigning healthcare systems to meet the health challenges associated with climate change in the twenty-first century.}, journal = {Journal of emergency management (Weston, Mass.)}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {255-263}, doi = {10.5055/jem.2015.0239}, pmid = {26150369}, issn = {1543-5865}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care/*organization &amp; administration ; *Health Policy ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {In the twenty-first century, climate change is emerging as a significant threat to the health and well-being of the public through links to the following: extreme weather events, sea level rise, temperature-related illnesses, air pollution patterns, water security, food security, vector-borne infectious diseases, and mental health effects (as a result of extreme weather events and climate change-induced population displacement). This article discusses how national healthcare systems can be redesigned through changes in its components such as human resources, facilities and technology, health information system, and health policy to meet these challenges.}, }
@article {pmid26146163, year = {2016}, author = {Piras, M and Mascaro, G and Deidda, R and Vivoni, ER}, title = {Impacts of climate change on precipitation and discharge extremes through the use of statistical downscaling approaches in a Mediterranean basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {543}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {952-964}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.06.088}, pmid = {26146163}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Mediterranean region is characterized by high precipitation variability often enhanced by orography, with strong seasonality and large inter-annual fluctuations, and by high heterogeneity of terrain and land surface properties. As a consequence, catchments in this area are often prone to the occurrence of hydrometeorological extremes, including storms, floods and flash-floods. A number of climate studies focused in the Mediterranean region predict that extreme events will occur with higher intensity and frequency, thus requiring further analyses to assess their effect at the land surface, particularly in small- and medium-sized watersheds. In this study, climate and hydrologic simulations produced within the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) EU FP7 research project were used to analyze how precipitation extremes propagate into discharge extremes in the Rio Mannu basin (472.5km(2)), located in Sardinia, Italy. The basin hydrologic response to climate forcings in a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period was simulated through the combined use of a set of global and regional climate models, statistical downscaling techniques, and a process based distributed hydrologic model. We analyzed and compared the distribution of annual maxima extracted from hourly and daily precipitation and peak discharge time series, simulated by the hydrologic model under climate forcing. For this aim, yearly maxima were fit by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using a regional approach. Next, we discussed commonality and contrasting behaviors of precipitation and discharge maxima distributions to better understand how hydrological transformations impact propagation of extremes. Finally, we show how rainfall statistical downscaling algorithms produce more reliable forcings for hydrological models than coarse climate model outputs.}, }
@article {pmid26142887, year = {2015}, author = {Aswani, S and Vaccaro, I and Abernethy, K and Albert, S and de Pablo, JF}, title = {Can Perceptions of Environmental and Climate Change in Island Communities Assist in Adaptation Planning Locally?.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {56}, number = {6}, pages = {1487-1501}, pmid = {26142887}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Islands ; Melanesia ; *Perception ; }, abstract = {Local perceptions of environmental and climate change, as well as associated adaptations made by local populations, are fundamental for designing comprehensive and inclusive mitigation and adaptation plans both locally and nationally. In this paper, we analyze people's perceptions of environmental and climate-related transformations in communities across the Western Solomon Islands through ethnographic and geospatial methods. Specifically, we documented people's observed changes over the past decades across various environmental domains, and for each change, we asked respondents to identify the causes, timing, and people's adaptive responses. We also incorporated this information into a geographical information system database to produce broad-scale base maps of local perceptions of environmental change. Results suggest that people detected changes that tended to be acute (e.g., water clarity, logging intensity, and agricultural diseases). We inferred from these results that most local observations of and adaptations to change were related to parts of environment/ecosystem that are most directly or indirectly related to harvesting strategies. On the other hand, people were less aware of slower insidious/chronic changes identified by scientific studies. For the Solomon Islands and similar contexts in the insular tropics, a broader anticipatory adaptation planning strategy to climate change should include a mix of local scientific studies and local observations of ongoing ecological changes.}, }
@article {pmid26142148, year = {2017}, author = {Metag, J and Füchslin, T and Schäfer, MS}, title = {Global warming's five Germanys: A typology of Germans' views on climate change and patterns of media use and information.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {434-451}, doi = {10.1177/0963662515592558}, pmid = {26142148}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; Germany ; *Global Warming ; Mass Media/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Perception ; *Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {People's attitudes toward climate change differ, and these differences may correspond to distinct patterns of media use and information seeking. However, studies extending analyses of attitude types and their specific media diets to countries beyond the United States are lacking. We use a secondary analysis of survey data from Germany to identify attitudes toward climate change among the German public and specify those segments of the population based on their media use and information seeking. Similar to the Global Warming's Six Americas study, we find distinct attitudes (Global Warming's Five Germanys) that differ in climate change-related perceptions as well as in media use and communicative behavior. These findings can help tailor communication campaigns regarding climate change to specific audiences.}, }
@article {pmid26141222, year = {2016}, author = {Esralew, RA and Flint, L and Thorne, JH and Boynton, R and Flint, A}, title = {A Framework for Effective Use of Hydroclimate Models in Climate-Change Adaptation Planning for Managed Habitats with Limited Hydrologic Response Data.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {58}, number = {1}, pages = {60-75}, pmid = {26141222}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Hydrology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; United States ; Water Supply/*methods/standards/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Climate-change adaptation planning for managed wetlands is challenging under uncertain futures when the impact of historic climate variability on wetland response is unquantified. We assessed vulnerability of Modoc National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) through use of the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) landscape hydrology model, and six global climate models, representing projected wetter and drier conditions. We further developed a conceptual model that provides greater value for water managers by incorporating the BCM outputs into a conceptual framework that links modeled parameters to refuge management outcomes. This framework was used to identify landscape hydrology parameters that reflect refuge sensitivity to changes in (1) climatic water deficit (CWD) and recharge, and (2) the magnitude, timing, and frequency of water inputs. BCM outputs were developed for 1981-2100 to assess changes and forecast the probability of experiencing wet and dry water year types that have historically resulted in challenging conditions for refuge habitat management. We used a Yule's Q skill score to estimate the probability of modeled discharge that best represents historic water year types. CWD increased in all models across 72.3-100 % of the water supply basin by 2100. Earlier timing in discharge, greater cool season discharge, and lesser irrigation season water supply were predicted by most models. Under the worst-case scenario, moderately dry years increased from 10-20 to 40-60 % by 2100. MNWR could adapt by storing additional water during the cool season for later use and prioritizing irrigation of habitats during dry years.}, }
@article {pmid26141092, year = {2016}, author = {Hassan, NA and Hashim, Z and Hashim, JH}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality and Public Health in Urban Areas.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {28}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {38S-48S}, doi = {10.1177/1010539515592951}, pmid = {26141092}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Nitrogen Dioxide/analysis ; Ozone/analysis ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Sulfur Dioxide/analysis ; Urban Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {This review discusses how climate undergo changes and the effect of climate change on air quality as well as public health. It also covers the inter relationship between climate and air quality. The air quality discussed here are in relation to the 5 criteria pollutants; ozone (O3), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter (PM). Urban air pollution is the main concern due to higher anthropogenic activities in urban areas. The implications on health are also discussed. Mitigating measures are presented with the final conclusion.}, }
@article {pmid26136379, year = {2015}, author = {Chen, HY and Luo, Y}, title = {Net aboveground biomass declines of four major forest types with forest ageing and climate change in western Canada's boreal forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {3675-3684}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12994}, pmid = {26136379}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Alberta ; *Biomass ; *Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Saskatchewan ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Biomass change of the world's forests is critical to the global carbon cycle. Despite storing nearly half of global forest carbon, the boreal biome of diverse forest types and ages is a poorly understood component of the carbon cycle. Using data from 871 permanent plots in the western boreal forest of Canada, we examined net annual aboveground biomass change (ΔAGB) of four major forest types between 1958 and 2011. We found that ΔAGB was higher for deciduous broadleaf (DEC) (1.44 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) , 95% Bayesian confidence interval (CI), 1.22-1.68) and early-successional coniferous forests (ESC) (1.42, CI, 1.30-1.56) than mixed forests (MIX) (0.80, CI, 0.50-1.11) and late-successional coniferous (LSC) forests (0.62, CI, 0.39-0.88). ΔAGB declined with forest age as well as calendar year. After accounting for the effects of forest age, ΔAGB declined by 0.035, 0.021, 0.032 and 0.069 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) per calendar year in DEC, ESC, MIX and LSC forests, respectively. The ΔAGB declines resulted from increased tree mortality and reduced growth in all forest types except DEC, in which a large biomass loss from mortality was accompanied with a small increase in growth. With every degree of annual temperature increase, ΔAGB decreased by 1.00, 0.20, 0.55 and 1.07 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) in DEC, ESC, MIX and LSC forests, respectively. With every cm decrease of annual climatic moisture availability, ΔAGB decreased 0.030, 0.045 and 0.17 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) in ESC, MIX and LSC forests, but changed little in DEC forests. Our results suggest that persistent warming and decreasing water availability have profound negative effects on forest biomass in the boreal forests of western Canada. Furthermore, our results indicate that forest responses to climate change are strongly dependent on forest composition with late-successional coniferous forests being most vulnerable to climate changes in terms of aboveground biomass.}, }
@article {pmid26135400, year = {2015}, author = {Staddon, PL and Depledge, MH}, title = {Fracking Cannot Be Reconciled with Climate Change Mitigation Policies.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {49}, number = {14}, pages = {8269-8270}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.5b02441}, pmid = {26135400}, issn = {1520-5851}, }
@article {pmid26135238, year = {2015}, author = {Chastonay, P and Zybach, U and Simos, J and Mattig, T}, title = {Climate change: an opportunity for health promotion practitioners?.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {60}, number = {7}, pages = {763-764}, pmid = {26135238}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Health Promotion/*methods ; Humans ; World Health Organization/organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid26134739, year = {2015}, author = {Schauer, JJ}, title = {Design Criteria for Future Fuels and Related Power Systems Addressing the Impacts of Non-CO2 Pollutants on Human Health and Climate Change.}, journal = {Annual review of chemical and biomolecular engineering}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {101-120}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-chembioeng-061114-123337}, pmid = {26134739}, issn = {1947-5446}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects/*analysis ; Air Pollution/adverse effects/*analysis ; Biofuels/adverse effects/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Fossil Fuels/adverse effects/*analysis ; *Health ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Concerns over the economics, supply chain, and emissions of greenhouse gases associated with the wide use of fossil fuels have led to increasing interest in developing alternative and renewable fuels for stationary power generation and transportation systems. Although there is considerable uncertainty regarding the economic and environmental impacts of alternative and renewable fuels, there is a great need for assessment of potential and emerging fuels to guide research priorities and infrastructure investment. Likewise, there is a great need to identify potential unintended adverse impacts of new fuels and related power systems before they are widely adopted. Historically, the environmental impacts of emerging fuels and power systems have largely focused on carbon dioxide emissions, often called the carbon footprint, which is used to assess impacts on climate change. Such assessments largely ignore the large impacts of emissions of other air pollutants. Given the potential changes in emissions of air pollutants associated with the large-scale use of new and emerging fuels and power systems, there is a great need to better guide efforts to develop new fuels and power systems that can avoid unexpected adverse impacts on the environment and human health. This review covers the nature of emissions, including the key components and impacts from the use of fuels, and the design criteria for future fuels and associated power systems to assure that the non-CO2 adverse impacts of stationary power generation and transportation are minimized.}, }
@article {pmid26134397, year = {2015}, author = {}, title = {Corrections for Elmendorf et al., Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {30}, pages = {E4156}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1511529112}, pmid = {26134397}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid26132163, year = {2015}, author = {Hu, XG and Jin, Y and Wang, XR and Mao, JF and Li, Y}, title = {Predicting Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of the Widespread Conifer Platycladus orientalis.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {e0132326}, pmid = {26132163}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Altitude ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Humidity ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plant Dispersal ; Temperature ; *Thuja ; }, abstract = {Chinese thuja (Platycladus orientalis) has a wide but fragmented distribution in China. It is an important conifer tree in reforestation and plays important roles in ecological restoration in the arid mountains of northern China. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. orientalis, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the species' distribution, and identified regions of high risk under climate change scenarios. The niche models showed that P. orientalis has suitable habitat of ca. 4.2×106 km2 across most of eastern China and identified annual temperature, monthly minimum and maximum ultraviolet-B radiation and wet-day frequency as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for P. orientalis. Under the low concentration greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the range of the species may increase as global warming intensifies; however, under the higher concentrations of emissions scenario, we predicted a slight expansion followed by contraction in distribution. Overall, the range shift to higher latitudes and elevations would become gradually more significant. The information gained from this study should be an useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for the species.}, }
@article {pmid26132053, year = {2015}, author = {Gislason, MK}, title = {Climate change, health and infectious disease.}, journal = {Virulence}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {539-542}, pmid = {26132053}, issn = {2150-5608}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*methods/*organization &amp; administration ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid26131627, year = {2015}, author = {Kellner, AW}, title = {Scientific Integrity, Precambrian Acritarchs from Brazil and Mangroves and Climate Change.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {87}, number = {2}, pages = {537-538}, doi = {10.1590/0001-37652015872}, pmid = {26131627}, issn = {1678-2690}, }
@article {pmid26131625, year = {2015}, author = {Barrett, JR}, title = {Increased Minimum Mortality Temperature in France: Data Suggest Humans Are Adapting to Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {123}, number = {7}, pages = {A184}, pmid = {26131625}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; *Mortality ; }, }
@article {pmid26129841, year = {2015}, author = {Jantz, SM and Barker, B and Brooks, TM and Chini, LP and Huang, Q and Moore, RM and Noel, J and Hurtt, GC}, title = {Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {1122-1131}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12549}, pmid = {26129841}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Invertebrates ; Plants ; Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land-use activities on biodiversity within hotspots.}, }
@article {pmid26120426, year = {2015}, author = {Muñoz, AR and Márquez, AL and Real, R}, title = {An approach to consider behavioral plasticity as a source of uncertainty when forecasting species' response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {12}, pages = {2359-2373}, pmid = {26120426}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The rapid ecological shifts that are occurring due to climate change present major challenges for managers and policymakers and, therefore, are one of the main concerns for environmental modelers and evolutionary biologists. Species distribution models (SDM) are appropriate tools for assessing the relationship between species distribution and environmental conditions, so being customarily used to forecast the biogeographical response of species to climate change. A serious limitation of species distribution models when forecasting the effects of climate change is that they normally assume that species behavior and climatic tolerances will remain constant through time. In this study, we propose a new methodology, based on fuzzy logic, useful for incorporating the potential capacity of species to adapt to new conditions into species distribution models. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to include different behavioral responses of species when predicting the effects of climate change on species distribution. Favorability models offered in this study show two extremes: one considering that the species will not modify its present behavior, and another assuming that the species will take full advantage of the possibilities offered by an increase in environmental favorability. This methodology may mean a more realistic approach to the assessment of the consequences of global change on species' distribution and conservation. Overlooking the potential of species' phenotypical plasticity may under- or overestimate the predicted response of species to changes in environmental drivers and its effects on species distribution. Using this approach, we could reinforce the science behind conservation planning in the current situation of rapid climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26120424, year = {2015}, author = {Gibson-Reinemer, DK and Sheldon, KS and Rahel, FJ}, title = {Climate change creates rapid species turnover in montane communities.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {12}, pages = {2340-2347}, pmid = {26120424}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Recent decades have seen substantial changes in patterns of biodiversity worldwide. Simultaneously, climate change is producing a widespread pattern of species' range shifts to higher latitudes and higher elevations, potentially creating novel assemblages as species shift at different rates. However, the direct link between species' turnover as a result of climate-induced range shifts has not yet been empirically evaluated. We measured rates of species turnover associated with species' range shifts in relatively undisturbed montane areas in Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and the Indo-Pacific. We show that species turnover is rapidly creating novel assemblages, and this can be explained by variable changes in species' range limits following warming. Across all the areas we analyzed, mean species' turnover was 12% per decade, which was nearly balanced between the loss of existing co-occurrences and the gain of novel co-occurrences. Turnover appears to be more rapid among ectothermic assemblages, and some evidence suggests tropical assemblages may be responding at more rapid rates than temperate assemblages.}, }
@article {pmid26119330, year = {2015}, author = {Andreopoulos, D and Damigos, D and Comiti, F and Fischer, C}, title = {Handling preference heterogeneity for river services' adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {160}, number = {}, pages = {201-211}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.06.015}, pmid = {26119330}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Italy ; Mediterranean Region ; *Models, Econometric ; Research Design ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents' adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate.}, }
@article {pmid26117506, year = {2015}, author = {Bennett, H and Macmillan, A and Jones, R}, title = {Health, fairness and New Zealand's contribution to global post-2020 climate change action.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {128}, number = {1415}, pages = {6-9}, pmid = {26117506}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; New Zealand ; *Policy Making ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Health and wellbeing have been largely ignored in discussions around climate change targets and action to date. The current public consultation around New Zealand's post-2020 climate target is an opportunity for health professionals to highlight the health implications of climate change. Without urgent global efforts to bring down global GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions, the world is heading towards high levels of global warming, which will have devastating impacts on human health and wellbeing. New Zealand's action to bring down GHG emissions (as part of the global effort) has potential to improve health and reduce costs on the health sector, if health and fairness are put at the centre of policies to address climate change. New Zealand should commit to at least 40 % reductions in GHG emissions by 2030, and zero carbon emissions before 2050, with healthy and fair policies across sectors to enable reaching these targets.}, }
@article {pmid26115485, year = {2015}, author = {Ackerly, DD and Cornwell, WK and Weiss, SB and Flint, LE and Flint, AL}, title = {A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e0130629}, pmid = {26115485}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Logistic Models ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Changes in climate projected for the 21st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions.}, }
@article {pmid26114622, year = {2015}, author = {Davis, MA and Douglas, MR and Webb, CT and Collyer, ML and Holycross, AT and Painter, CW and Kamees, LK and Douglas, ME}, title = {Nowhere to Go but Up: Impacts of Climate Change on Demographics of a Short-Range Endemic (Crotalus willardi obscurus) in the Sky-Islands of Southwestern North America.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e0131067}, pmid = {26114622}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Crotalus/genetics/*physiology ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Fires ; Male ; New Mexico ; North America ; Survival ; }, abstract = {Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., 'short range endemics,' SREs) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas) is numerically constricted (N = 151), with few breeding adults (Nb = 24) and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years). Mean home range (0.07 km2) is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta)], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (female<male) and life history stages (juvenile<adult) while a steadily declining population trajectory (r = -0.20±0.03) underscores the shallow predicted-time-to-extinction (17.09±2.05 years). Core habitat is receding upwards in elevation and will shift 750 km NW under conservative climate estimates. While survival is significantly impacted by wildfire at upper elevations, the extinction vortex is driven by small population demographics, a situation comparable to that of the European Adder (Vipera berus), a conservation icon in southern Sweden. Genetic rescue, a management approach successfully employed in similar situations, is ill advised in this situation due to climate-driven habitat change in the sky islands. CWO is a rare organism in a unique environment, with a conserved niche and a predisposition towards extinction. It is a bellwether for the eventual climate-driven collapse of the Madrean pine-oak ecosystem, one of Earth's three recognized megadiversity centers.}, }
@article {pmid26113575, year = {2015}, author = {Tillmann, T and Currie, J and Wardrope, A and McCoy, D}, title = {Fossil fuel companies and climate change: the case for divestment.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {350}, number = {}, pages = {h3196}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.h3196}, pmid = {26113575}, issn = {1756-1833}, support = {//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Commerce ; *Fossil Fuels ; *Public Policy ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid26111439, year = {2015}, author = {Watts, N and Adger, WN and Agnolucci, P and Blackstock, J and Byass, P and Cai, W and Chaytor, S and Colbourn, T and Collins, M and Cooper, A and Cox, PM and Depledge, J and Drummond, P and Ekins, P and Galaz, V and Grace, D and Graham, H and Grubb, M and Haines, A and Hamilton, I and Hunter, A and Jiang, X and Li, M and Kelman, I and Liang, L and Lott, M and Lowe, R and Luo, Y and Mace, G and Maslin, M and Nilsson, M and Oreszczyn, T and Pye, S and Quinn, T and Svensdotter, M and Venevsky, S and Warner, K and Xu, B and Yang, J and Yin, Y and Yu, C and Zhang, Q and Gong, P and Montgomery, H and Costello, A}, title = {Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {386}, number = {10006}, pages = {1861-1914}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60854-6}, pmid = {26111439}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Policy ; Global Health ; *Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid26111438, year = {2015}, author = {Wang, H and Horton, R}, title = {Tackling climate change: the greatest opportunity for global health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {386}, number = {10006}, pages = {1798-1799}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60931-X}, pmid = {26111438}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid26111437, year = {2015}, author = {Watts, G}, title = {Peng Gong: remote sensing of near climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {386}, number = {10006}, pages = {1815}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60723-1}, pmid = {26111437}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change/history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Remote Sensing Technology/history ; }, }
@article {pmid26111435, year = {2015}, author = {Admasu, K and Debessa, K}, title = {Action to protect human health from climate change: an African perspective.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {386}, number = {10006}, pages = {e31-3}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61139-4}, pmid = {26111435}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Africa ; *Climate Change ; Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid26111101, year = {2015}, author = {Bokhorst, S and Phoenix, GK and Berg, MP and Callaghan, TV and Kirby-Lambert, C and Bjerke, JW}, title = {Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {4063-4075}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.13007}, pmid = {26111101}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Biodiversity ; Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Food Chain ; Herbivory ; Moths/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may have clear impacts, more work is needed to understand their net effect on Arctic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid26109998, year = {2015}, author = {Poursafa, P and Keikha, M and Kelishadi, R}, title = {Systematic review on adverse birth outcomes of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of research in medical sciences : the official journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {397-402}, pmid = {26109998}, issn = {1735-1995}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and global warming have significant effects on human health. This systematic review presents the effects of the climate changes on pregnancy outcomes.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: The search process was conducted in electronic databases including ISI Web of Knowledge, PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar using key words of "environmental temperature" "pregnancy" "low birth weight (LBW)" "pregnancy outcome," "climate change," "preterm birth (PTB)," and a combination of them. We did not consider any time limitation; English-language papers were included. The related papers were selected in three phases. After quality assessment, two reviewers extracted the data while the third reviewer checked their extracted data. Finally, 15 related articles were selected and included in the current study.<br><br>RESULTS: Approximately all studies have reported a significant relationship between exposure variable and intended outcomes including eclampsia, preeclampsia, cataract, LBW, PTB, hypertension, sex ratio and length of pregnancy. According to conducted studies, decrease in birth weight is more possible in cold months. Increase in temperature was followed by increase in PTB rate. According to most of the studies, eclampsia and preeclampsia were more prevalent in cold and humid seasons. Two spectrums of heat extent, different seasons of the year, sunlight intensity and season of fertilization were associated with higher rates of PTB, hypertension, eclampsia, preeclampsia, and cataract.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change has unfavorable effects on eclampsia, preeclampsia, PTB, and cataract. The findings of this review confirm the crucial importance of the adverse health effects of climate change especially in the perinatal period.}, }
@article {pmid26109074, year = {2015}, author = {Sevanto, S and Dickman, LT}, title = {Where does the carbon go?--Plant carbon allocation under climate change.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {581-584}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpv059}, pmid = {26109074}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {*Carbon Cycle ; *Droughts ; Fagus/*physiology ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid26106887, year = {2015}, author = {Fancourt, BA and Bateman, BL and VanDerWal, J and Nicol, SC and Hawkins, CE and Jones, ME and Johnson, CN}, title = {Testing the Role of Climate Change in Species Decline: Is the Eastern Quoll a Victim of a Change in the Weather?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e0129420}, pmid = {26106887}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Marsupialia ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Tasmania ; Time Factors ; Weather ; }, abstract = {To conserve a declining species we first need to diagnose the causes of decline. This is one of the most challenging tasks faced by conservation practitioners. In this study, we used temporally explicit species distribution models (SDMs) to test whether shifting weather can explain the recent decline of a marsupial carnivore, the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus). We developed an SDM using weather variables matched to occurrence records of the eastern quoll over the last 60 years, and used the model to reconstruct variation through time in the distribution of climatically suitable range for the species. The weather model produced a meaningful prediction of the known distribution of the species. Abundance of quolls, indexed by transect counts, was positively related to the modelled area of suitable habitat between 1990 and 2004. In particular, a sharp decline in abundance from 2001 to 2003 coincided with a sustained period of unsuitable weather over much of the species' distribution. Since 2004, abundance has not recovered despite a return to suitable weather conditions, and abundance and area of suitable habitat have been uncorrelated. We suggest that fluctuations in weather account for the species' recent decline, but other unrelated factors have suppressed recovery.}, }
@article {pmid26104384, year = {2015}, author = {Hawkes, N}, title = {Steps to combat climate change would also improve human health, commission says.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {350}, number = {}, pages = {h3416}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.h3416}, pmid = {26104384}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*organization &amp; administration ; Disease Outbreaks/*prevention &amp; control ; Global Health ; *Health Policy ; Health Services/statistics &amp; numerical data/supply &amp; distribution ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid26101413, year = {2015}, author = {de Oliveira, G and Lima-Ribeiro, MS and Terribile, LC and Dobrovolski, R and Telles, MP and Diniz-Filho, JA}, title = {Conservation biogeography of the Cerrado's wild edible plants under climate change: Linking biotic stability with agricultural expansion.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {102}, number = {6}, pages = {870-877}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1400352}, pmid = {26101413}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Phylogeography ; Plants, Edible/*physiology ; South America ; Species Specificity ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: REMISE OF THE STUDY: Wild edible plants (WEPs) have an important cultural and economic role in human population worldwide. Human impacts are quickly converting natural habitats in agricultural, cattle ranch, and urbanized lands, putting native species on peril of risk of extinction, including some WEPs. Moreover, global climate changes also can pose another threat to species persistency. Here, we established conservation priorities for the Cerrado, a neotropical region in South America with high levels of plant endemism and vulnerability, aiming to assure long-term persistency of 16 most important WEPs. We evaluated these conservation priorities using a conservation biogeography framework using ecological patterns and process at a biogeographical scale to deal with species conservation features.<br><br>METHODS: We built ecological niche models for 16 WEPs from Cerrado in the neotropics using climate models for preindustrial, past (Last Glacial Maximum) and future (year 2080) time periods to establish climatically stable areas through time, finding refugias for these WEPs. We used a spatial prioritization algorithm based on the spatial pattern of irreplaceability across the neotropics, aiming to ensure the persistence of at least 25% of range size in climatically stable areas for each WEP, using agricultural models as constraints.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: The Southeast Cerrado was the most biotically stable and irreplaceable region for the WEPs compared with other areas across the neotropics.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings strongly suggest that the Southeast Cerrado should be considered a conservation priority, with new protected areas to be sustainably managed and restored, to guarantee the supply of cultural and ecosystem services provided from the Cerrado's WEPs.}, }
@article {pmid26094539, year = {2015}, author = {Oyekale, AS}, title = {Climate change induced occupational stress and reported morbidity among cocoa farmers in South-Western Nigeria.}, journal = {Annals of agricultural and environmental medicine : AAEM}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {357-361}, doi = {10.5604/12321966.1152095}, pmid = {26094539}, issn = {1898-2263}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; *Agriculture ; Cacao ; *Climate Change ; *Farmers ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Morbidity ; Nigeria ; *Occupational Health ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: Climate change is one of the major development hurdles in many developing countries. The health outcome of farm households are related to climate change, which is related to several external and internal health-related issues, such as management of occupational stressors. This study seeks, inter alia, to determine the climate related occupational stress and factors influencing reported sick times among cocoa farmers.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHOD: Data were collected from selected cocoa farmers in South-Western Nigeria. Descriptive statistics and Negative Binomial regression were used for data analyses.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that cocoa farmers were ageing, and that the majority had cultivating cocoa for most of their years of farming. Cocoa was the primary crop for the majority of the farmers, while 92.00% of the farmers in Osun state owned the cultivated cocoa farms. The forms of reported climate change induced occupational stresses were increase in pest infestation (74.5% in Ekiti state), difficulties in weed control (82.1% in Ekiti state), missing regular times scheduled for spraying cocoa pods (45.7% in Ondo state), inability to spray cocoa effectively (58.5% in Ondo state), and reduction in cocoa yield (71.7% in Ekiti state). The Negative Binomial regression results showed that the age of farmers (0.0103), their education (-0.0226), years of cocoa farming (-0.0112), malaria infection (0.4901), missed spraying (0.5061), re-spraying of cocoa (0.2630), reduction in cocoa yield (0.20154), contact with extension (0.2411) and residence in Ondo state (-0.2311) were statistically significant (p<0.05).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change influences the farm operations of cocoa farmers with resultant occupational stresses. Efforts to assist cocoa farmers should include, among others, provision of weather forecasts and some form of insurance.}, }
@article {pmid26093493, year = {2015}, author = {Jiang, C and Shaw, KS and Upperman, CR and Blythe, D and Mitchell, C and Murtugudde, R and Sapkota, AR and Sapkota, A}, title = {Climate change, extreme events and increased risk of salmonellosis in Maryland, USA: Evidence for coastal vulnerability.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {83}, number = {}, pages = {58-62}, pmid = {26093493}, issn = {1873-6750}, support = {1UE1EH001049-01/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; U38 EH000944/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; 5U01C1000310//PHS HHS/United States ; UE1 EH001049/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; U17 CE002604/CE/NCIPC CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Incidence ; Maryland/epidemiology ; Rain ; Salmonella Infections/*epidemiology/microbiology ; Snow ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Salmonella is a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Patterns of salmonellosis have been linked to weather events. However, there is a dearth of data regarding the association between extreme events and risk of salmonellosis, and how this risk may disproportionately impact coastal communities.<br><br>METHODS: We obtained Salmonella case data from the Maryland Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (2002-2012), and weather data from the National Climatic Data Center (1960-2012). We developed exposure metrics related to extreme temperature and precipitation events using a 30 year baseline (1960-1989) and linked them with county-level salmonellosis data. Data were analyzed using negative binomial Generalized Estimating Equations.<br><br>RESULTS: We observed a 4.1% increase in salmonellosis risk associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme temperature events (incidence rate ratio (IRR):1.041; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.013-1.069). This increase in risk was more pronounced in coastal versus non-coastal areas (5.1% vs 1.5%). Likewise, we observed a 5.6% increase in salmonellosis risk (IRR:1.056; CI:1.035-1.078) associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme precipitation events, with the impact disproportionately felt in coastal areas (7.1% vs 3.6%).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence showing that extreme temperature/precipitation events-that are expected to be more frequent and intense in coming decades-are disproportionately impacting coastal communities with regard to salmonellosis. Adaptation strategies need to account for this differential burden, particularly in light of ever increasing coastal populations.}, }
@article {pmid26091014, year = {2015}, author = {Giannini, TC and Tambosi, LR and Acosta, AL and Jaffé, R and Saraiva, AM and Imperatriz-Fonseca, VL and Metzger, JP}, title = {Safeguarding Ecosystem Services: A Methodological Framework to Buffer the Joint Effect of Habitat Configuration and Climate Change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e0129225}, pmid = {26091014}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forests ; Geography ; Humans ; Pollination ; }, abstract = {Ecosystem services provided by mobile agents are increasingly threatened by the loss and modification of natural habitats and by climate change, risking the maintenance of biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and human welfare. Research oriented towards a better understanding of the joint effects of land use and climate change over the provision of specific ecosystem services is therefore essential to safeguard such services. Here we propose a methodological framework, which integrates species distribution forecasts and graph theory to identify key conservation areas, which if protected or restored could improve habitat connectivity and safeguard ecosystem services. We applied the proposed framework to the provision of pollination services by a tropical stingless bee (Melipona quadrifasciata), a key pollinator of native flora from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and important agricultural crops. Based on the current distribution of this bee and that of the plant species used to feed and nest, we projected the joint distribution of bees and plants in the future, considering a moderate climate change scenario (following IPPC). We then used this information, the bee's flight range, and the current mapping of Atlantic Forest remnants to infer habitat suitability and quantify local and regional habitat connectivity for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Our results revealed north to south and coastal to inland shifts in the pollinator distribution during the next 70 years. Current and future connectivity maps unraveled the most important corridors, which if protected or restored, could facilitate the dispersal and establishment of bees during distribution shifts. Our results also suggest that coffee plantations from eastern São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais States could suffer a pollinator deficit in the future, whereas pollination services seem to be secured in southern Brazil. Landowners and governmental agencies could use this information to implement new land use schemes. Overall, our proposed methodological framework could help design novel conservational and agricultural practices that can be crucial to conserve ecosystem services by buffering the joint effect of habitat configuration and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26088645, year = {2015}, author = {Flahault, A and Schütte, S and Guégan, JF and Pascal, M and Barouki, R}, title = {Health can help saving negotiation on climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {385}, number = {9985}, pages = {e49-50}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60866-2}, pmid = {26088645}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; Health Status ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid26086887, year = {2015}, author = {Dhimal, M and Ahrens, B and Kuch, U}, title = {Climate Change and Spatiotemporal Distributions of Vector-Borne Diseases in Nepal--A Systematic Synthesis of Literature.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e0129869}, pmid = {26086887}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology/transmission ; Elephantiasis, Filarial/*epidemiology/transmission ; Encephalitis, Japanese/*epidemiology/transmission ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/physiology ; Insecta ; Leishmaniasis, Visceral/*epidemiology/transmission ; Malaria/*epidemiology/transmission ; Nepal/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs), namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December 2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines.<br><br>PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level). Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant.}, }
@article {pmid26086846, year = {2015}, author = {Zvuloni, A and Artzy-Randrup, Y and Katriel, G and Loya, Y and Stone, L}, title = {Modeling the Impact of White-Plague Coral Disease in Climate Change Scenarios.}, journal = {PLoS computational biology}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {e1004151}, pmid = {26086846}, issn = {1553-7358}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa/microbiology/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*veterinary ; Computational Biology ; Coral Reefs ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Models, Biological ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Coral reefs are in global decline, with coral diseases increasing both in prevalence and in space, a situation that is expected only to worsen as future thermal stressors increase. Through intense surveillance, we have collected a unique and highly resolved dataset from the coral reef of Eilat (Israel, Red Sea), that documents the spatiotemporal dynamics of a White Plague Disease (WPD) outbreak over the course of a full season. Based on modern statistical methodologies, we develop a novel spatial epidemiological model that uses a maximum-likelihood procedure to fit the data and assess the transmission pattern of WPD. We link the model to sea surface temperature (SST) and test the possible effect of increasing temperatures on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that the likelihood of a susceptible coral to become infected is governed both by SST and by its spatial location relative to nearby infected corals. The model shows that the magnitude of WPD epidemics strongly depends on demographic circumstances; under one extreme, when recruitment is free-space regulated and coral density remains relatively constant, even an increase of only 0.5°C in SST can cause epidemics to double in magnitude. In reality, however, the spatial nature of transmission can effectively protect the community, restricting the magnitude of annual epidemics. This is because the probability of susceptible corals to become infected is negatively associated with coral density. Based on our findings, we expect that infectious diseases having a significant spatial component, such as Red-Sea WPD, will never lead to a complete destruction of the coral community under increased thermal stress. However, this also implies that signs of recovery of local coral communities may be misleading; indicative more of spatial dynamics than true rehabilitation of these communities. In contrast to earlier generic models, our approach captures dynamics of WPD both in space and time, accounting for the highly seasonal nature of annual WPD outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid26086045, year = {2015}, author = {Kay, S and Caesar, J and Wolf, J and Bricheno, L and Nicholls, RJ and Saiful Islam, AK and Haque, A and Pardaens, A and Lowe, JA}, title = {Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {17}, number = {7}, pages = {1311-1322}, doi = {10.1039/c4em00683f}, pmid = {26086045}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; India ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end of this century.}, }
@article {pmid26085267, year = {2015}, author = {Joos, F}, title = {Global warming: Growing feedback from ocean carbon to climate.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {522}, number = {7556}, pages = {295-296}, pmid = {26085267}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Carbon Cycle/*physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Trees/*metabolism ; *Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid26084000, year = {2015}, author = {Negev, M and Paz, S and Clermont, A and Pri-Or, NG and Shalom, U and Yeger, T and Green, MS}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin - Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {6745-6770}, pmid = {26084000}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Disease Vectors ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Mediterranean Region/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders.}, }
@article {pmid26083467, year = {2015}, author = {Ruane, S and Torres-Carvajal, O and Burbrink, FT}, title = {Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e0128543}, pmid = {26083467}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Colubridae/classification/*genetics ; Cytochromes b/genetics ; DNA/analysis ; Genetic Loci ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene.}, }
@article {pmid26082953, year = {2015}, author = {Gross, M}, title = {Twenty-five years of climate change failure.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {R307-10}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2015.03.044}, pmid = {26082953}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Climate Change/*economics/*history ; Fossil Fuels/*adverse effects ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Public Health/economics/*history ; }, }
@article {pmid26082862, year = {2015}, author = {Sherman, E}, title = {Can sea urchins beat the heat? Sea urchins, thermal tolerance and climate change.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {e1006}, pmid = {26082862}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {The massive die-off of the long-spined sea urchin, Diadema antillarum, a significant reef grazer, in the mid 1980s was followed by phase shifts from coral dominated to macroalgae dominated reefs in the Caribbean. While Diadema populations have recovered in some reefs with concomitant increases in coral cover, the additional threat of increasing temperatures due to global climate change has not been investigated in adult sea urchins. In this study, I measured acute thermal tolerance of D. antillarum and that of a sympatric sea urchin not associated with coral cover, Echinometra lucunter, over winter, spring, and summer, thus exposing them to substantial natural thermal variation. Animals were taken from the wild and placed in laboratory tanks in room temperature water (∼22 °C) that was then heated at 0.16-0.3 °C min(-1) and the righting behavior of individual sea urchins was recorded. I measured both the temperature at which the animal could no longer right itself (T LoR) and the righting time at temperatures below the T LoR. In all seasons, D. antillarum exhibited a higher mean T LoR than E. lucunter. The mean T LoR of each species increased with increasing environmental temperature revealing that both species acclimatize to seasonal changes in temperatures. The righting times of D. antillarum were much shorter than those of E. lucunter. The longer relative spine length of Diadema compared to that of Echinometra may contribute to their shorter righting times, but does not explain their higher T LoR. The thermal safety margin (the difference between the mean collection temperature and the mean T LoR) was between 3.07-3.66 °C for Echinometra and 3.79-5.67 °C for Diadema. While these thermal safety margins exceed present day temperatures, they are modest compared to those of temperate marine invertebrates. If sea temperatures increase more rapidly than can be accommodated by the sea urchins (either by genetic adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, or both), this will have important consequences for the structure of coral reefs.}, }
@article {pmid26081243, year = {2016}, author = {Hauser, DD and Tobin, ED and Feifel, KM and Shah, V and Pietri, DM}, title = {Disciplinary reporting affects the interpretation of climate change impacts in global oceans.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {25-43}, pmid = {26081243}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Oceanography ; *Oceans and Seas ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems, but different investigative approaches in physical, chemical, and biological disciplines may influence interpretations of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Here, we review the ocean change literature from 2007 to 2012 based on 461 of the most highly cited studies in physical and chemical oceanography and three biological subdisciplines. Using highly cited studies, we focus on research that has shaped recent discourse on climate-driven ocean change. Our review identified significant differences in spatial and temporal scales of investigation among disciplines. Physical/chemical studies had a median duration of 29 years (n = 150) and covered the greatest study areas (median 1.41 × 10(7) km(2) , n = 148). Few biological studies were conducted over similar spatial and temporal scales (median 8 years, n = 215; median 302 km(2) , n = 196), suggesting a more limited ability to separate climate-related responses from natural variability. We linked physical/chemical and biological disciplines by tracking studies examining biological responses to changing ocean conditions. Of the 545 biological responses recorded, a single physical or chemical stressor was usually implicated as the cause (59%), with temperature as the most common primary stressor (44%). The most frequently studied biological responses were changes in physiology (31%) and population abundance (30%). Differences in disciplinary studies, as identified in this review, can ultimately influence how researchers interpret climate-related impacts in marine systems. We identified research gaps and the need for more discourse in (1) the Indian and other Southern Hemisphere ocean basins; (2) research themes such as archaea, bacteria, viruses, mangroves, turtles, and ocean acidification; (3) physical and chemical stressors such as dissolved oxygen, salinity, and upwelling; and (4) adaptive responses of marine organisms to climate-driven ocean change. Our findings reveal that highly cited biological studies are rarely conducted on scales that match those of physical and chemical studies. Rather, we suggest a need for measuring responses at biologically relevant scales.}, }
@article {pmid26081036, year = {2015}, author = {Li, F and Tierno de Figueroa, JM and Lek, S and Park, YS}, title = {Continental drift and climate change drive instability in insect assemblages.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {11343}, pmid = {26081036}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Africa, Northern ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Insecta ; }, abstract = {Global change has already had observable effects on ecosystems worldwide, and the accelerated rate of global change is predicted in the future. However, the impacts of global change on the stability of biodiversity have not been systematically studied in terms of both large spatial (continental drift) and temporal (from the last inter-glacial period to the next century) scales. Therefore, we analyzed the current geographical distribution pattern of Plecoptera, a thermally sensitive insect group, and evaluated its stability when coping with global change across both space and time throughout the Mediterranean region--one of the first 25 global biodiversity hotspots. Regional biodiversity of Plecoptera reflected the geography in both the historical movements of continents and the current environmental conditions in the western Mediterranean region. The similarity of Plecoptera assemblages between areas in this region indicated that the uplift of new land and continental drift were the primary determinants of the stability of regional biodiversity. Our results revealed that climate change caused the biodiversity of Plecoptera to slowly diminish in the past and will cause remarkably accelerated biodiversity loss in the future. These findings support the theory that climate change has had its greatest impact on biodiversity over a long temporal scale.}, }
@article {pmid26078862, year = {2015}, author = {Jochner, S and Menzel, A}, title = {Does flower phenology mirror the slowdown of global warming?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {2284-2295}, pmid = {26078862}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Although recent global warming trends in air temperature are not as pronounced as those observed only one decade ago, global mean temperature is still at a very high level. Does plant phenology - which is believed to be a suitable indicator of climate change - respond in a similar way, that is, does it still mirror recent temperature variations? We explored in detail long-term flowering onset dates of snowdrop, cherry, and lime tree and relevant spring temperatures at three sites in Germany (1901-2012) using the Bayesian multiple change-point approach. We investigated whether mean spring temperature changes were amplified or slowed down in the past decade and how plant phenology responded to the most recent temperature changes. Incorporating records with different end points (i.e., 2002 and 2012), we compared differences in trends and inferred possible differences caused by extrapolating phenological and meteorological data. The new multiple-change point approach is characterized by an enhanced structure and greater flexibility compared to the one change point model. However, the highest model probabilities for phenological (meteorological) records were still obtained for the one change point (linear) model. Marked warming trends in the recent decade were only revealed for mean temperatures of March to May, here better described with one or two change point models. In the majority of cases analyzed, changes in temperatures were well mirrored by phenological changes. However, temperatures in March to May were linked to less strongly advancing onset dates for lime tree flowering during the period 1901-2012, pointing to the likely influence of photoperiodic constraints or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Due to the slowdown of temperature increase, analyses conducted on records ending in 2002 demonstrated distinct differences when compared with records ending in 2012. Extrapolation of trends could therefore (along with the choice of the statistical method) lead to distinctly different results and most recent data should be integrated in order not to over- or underestimate future phenological changes.}, }
@article {pmid26078858, year = {2015}, author = {Wu, J and Zhang, G}, title = {Can changes in the distributions of resident birds in China over the past 50 years be attributed to climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {2215-2233}, pmid = {26078858}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The distributions of bird species have changed over the past 50 years in China. To evaluate whether the changes can be attributed to the changing climate, we analyzed the distributions of 20 subspecies of resident birds in relation to climate change. Long-term records of bird distributions, gray relational analysis, fuzzy-set classification techniques, and attribution methods were used. Among the 20 subspecies of resident birds, the northern limits of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward since the 1960s, and most changes have been related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past 50 years, the suitable range and latitude or longitude of the distribution centers of certain birds have exhibited increased fluctuations. The northern boundaries of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward compared with those in the 1960s. The consistency between the observed and predicted changes in the range limits was quite high for some subspecies. The changes in the northern boundaries or the latitudes of the centers of distribution of nearly half of the subspecies can be attributed to climate change. The results suggest that climate change has affected the distributions of particular birds. The method used to attribute changes in bird distributions to climate change may also be effective for other animals.}, }
@article {pmid26076892, year = {2015}, author = {Garnier, M and Harper, DM and Blaskovicova, L and Hancz, G and Janauer, GA and Jolánkai, Z and Lanz, E and Lo Porto, A and Mándoki, M and Pataki, B and Rahuel, JL and Robinson, VJ and Stoate, C and Tóth, E and Jolánkai, G}, title = {Climate Change and European Water Bodies, a Review of Existing Gaps and Future Research Needs: Findings of the ClimateWater Project.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {56}, number = {2}, pages = {271-285}, pmid = {26076892}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods/trends ; Environmental Policy ; Europe ; Humans ; Population Growth ; Water Purification ; Water Resources/*supply &amp; distribution ; Water Supply/*standards ; }, abstract = {There is general agreement among scientists that global temperatures are rising and will continue to increase in the future. It is also agreed that human activities are the most important causes of these climatic variations, and that water resources are already suffering and will continue to be greatly impaired as a consequence of these changes. In particular, it is probable that areas with limited water resources will expand and that an increase of global water demand will occur, estimated to be around 35-60% by 2025 as a consequence of population growth and the competing needs of water uses. This will cause a growing imbalance between water demand (including the needs of nature) and supply. This urgency demands that climate change impacts on water be evaluated in different sectors using a cross-cutting approach (Contestabile in Nat Clim Chang 3:11-12, 2013). These issues were examined by the EU FP7-funded Co-ordination and support action "ClimateWater" (bridging the gap between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts and European water policies). The project studied adaptation strategies to minimize the water-related consequences of climate change and assessed how these strategies should be taken into consideration by European policies. This article emphasizes that knowledge gaps still exist about the direct effects of climate change on water bodies and their indirect impacts on production areas that employ large amounts of water (e.g., agriculture). Some sectors, such as ecohydrology and alternative sewage treatment technologies, could represent a powerful tool to mitigate climate change impacts. Research needs in these still novel fields are summarized.}, }
@article {pmid26074653, year = {2015}, author = {Dunford, R and Harrison, PA and Jäger, J and Rounsevell, MD and Tinch, R}, title = {Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {128}, number = {3-4}, pages = {339-354}, pmid = {26074653}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach. The presented methodology enables stakeholder-derived socio-economic futures to be represented within a quantitative integrated modelling framework in a way that changes spatially and temporally with the socio-economic storyline. Vulnerability was mapped for six key ecosystem services in 40 combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. The analysis shows that, whilst the north and west of Europe are generally better placed to cope with climate impacts than the south and east, coping could be improved in all areas. Furthermore, whilst the lack of coping capacity in dystopian scenarios often leads to greater vulnerability, there are complex interactions between sectors that lead to patterns of vulnerability that vary spatially, with scenario and by sector even within the more utopian futures.}, }
@article {pmid26072696, year = {2015}, author = {Baudier, KM and Mudd, AE and Erickson, SC and O'Donnell, S}, title = {Microhabitat and body size effects on heat tolerance: implications for responses to climate change (army ants: Formicidae, Ecitoninae).}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {84}, number = {5}, pages = {1322-1330}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12388}, pmid = {26072696}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Ants/*physiology ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Costa Rica ; *Ecosystem ; *Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {1. Models that predict organismal and population responses to climate change may be improved by considering ecological factors that affect species thermal tolerance. Species differences in microhabitat use can expose animals to diverse thermal selective environments at a given site and may cause sympatric species to evolve different thermal tolerances. 2. We tested the hypothesis that species differences in body size and microhabitat use (above- vs. below-ground activity) would correspond to differences in thermal tolerance (maximum critical temperatures: CTmax). Thermal buffering effects of soil can reduce exposure to extreme high temperatures for below-ground active species. We predicted larger-bodied individuals and species would have higher CTmax and that species mean CTmax would covary positively with degree of above-ground activity. We used Neotropical army ants (Formicidae: Ecitoninae) as models. Army ants vary in microhabitat use from largely subterranean to largely above-ground active species and are highly size polymorphic. 3. We collected data on above- and below-ground temperatures in habitats used by army ants to test for microhabitat temperature differences, and we conducted CTmax assays for army ant species with varying degrees of surface activity and with different body sizes within and between species. We then tested whether microhabitat use was associated with species differences in CTmax and whether microhabitat was a better predictor of CTmax than body size for species that overlapped in size. 4. Microhabitat use was a highly significant predictor of species' upper thermal tolerance limits, both for raw data and after accounting for the effects of phylogeny. Below-ground species were more thermally sensitive, with lower maximum critical temperatures (CTmax). The smallest workers within each species were the least heat tolerant, but the magnitude of CTmax change with body size was greater in below-ground species. Species-typical microhabitat was a stronger predictor of CTmax than body size for species that overlapped in size. Compared to the soil surface, 10-cm subsoil was a significantly moderated thermal environment for below-ground army ants, while maximum surface raid temperatures sometimes exceeded CTmax for the most thermally sensitive army ant castes. 5. We conclude sympatric species differences in thermal physiology correspond to microhabitat use. These patterns should be accounted for in models of species and community responses to thermal variation and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26070525, year = {2015}, author = {Dudley, JP and Hoberg, EP and Jenkins, EJ and Parkinson, AJ}, title = {Climate Change in the North American Arctic: A One Health Perspective.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {713-725}, pmid = {26070525}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Acute Disease/*epidemiology ; Animals ; Animals, Wild ; Arctic Regions/epidemiology ; Chronic Disease/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; Foodborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Indians, North American ; North America/epidemiology ; Population Groups ; Waterborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to increase the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases among human and animal populations within the Arctic and subarctic latitudes of North America. Warmer temperatures are expected to increase disease risks from food-borne pathogens, water-borne diseases, and vector-borne zoonoses in human and animal populations of Arctic landscapes. Existing high levels of mercury and persistent organic pollutant chemicals circulating within terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in Arctic latitudes are a major concern for the reproductive health of humans and other mammals, and climate warming will accelerate the mobilization and biological amplification of toxic environmental contaminants. The adverse health impacts of Arctic warming will be especially important for wildlife populations and indigenous peoples dependent upon subsistence food resources from wild plants and animals. Additional research is needed to identify and monitor changes in the prevalence of zoonotic pathogens in humans, domestic dogs, and wildlife species of critical subsistence, cultural, and economic importance to Arctic peoples. The long-term effects of climate warming in the Arctic cannot be adequately predicted or mitigated without a comprehensive understanding of the interactive and synergistic effects between environmental contaminants and pathogens in the health of wildlife and human communities in Arctic ecosystems. The complexity and magnitude of the documented impacts of climate change on Arctic ecosystems, and the intimacy of connections between their human and wildlife communities, makes this region an appropriate area for development of One Health approaches to identify and mitigate the effects of climate warming at the community, ecosystem, and landscape scales.}, }
@article {pmid26069875, year = {2015}, author = {Debela, N and Mohammed, C and Bridle, K and Corkrey, R and McNeil, D}, title = {Perception of climate change and its impact by smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana, South Ethiopia.}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {236}, pmid = {26069875}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {This study investigates the perception of historic changes in climate and associated impact on local agriculture among smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana in southern Ethiopia. We drew on empirical data obtained from farm household surveys conducted in 5 districts, 20 pastoral/agropastoral associations and 480 farm households. Using this data, this study analyses smallholders' perception of climate change and its associated impact on local agriculture, and the effect of various household and farm attributes on perception. Results suggest that most participants perceived climatic change and its negative impact on agricultural and considered climate change as a salient risk to their future livelihoods and economic development. Different levels of perception were expressed in terms of climate change and the impact on traditional rain-fed agriculture. Age, education level, livestock holding, access to climate information and extension services significantly affected perception levels. Household size, production system, farm and non-farm incomes did not significantly affect perception levels of smallholders. Smallholders attributed climate change to a range of biophysical, deistic and anthropogenic causes. Increased access to agricultural support services, which improves the availability and the quality of relevant climate information will further enhance awareness of climate change within of the rural community and result in better management of climate-induced risks in these vulnerable agricultural systems.}, }
@article {pmid26068848, year = {2015}, author = {Poulsen, CJ and Tabor, C and White, JD}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {348}, number = {6240}, pages = {1238-1241}, doi = {10.1126/science.1260670}, pmid = {26068848}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {The percentage of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere varied between 10% and 35% throughout the Phanerozoic. These changes have been linked to the evolution, radiation, and size of animals but have not been considered to affect climate. We conducted simulations showing that modulation of the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2), as a result of its contribution to atmospheric mass and density, influences the optical depth of the atmosphere. Under low pO2 and a reduced-density atmosphere, shortwave scattering by air molecules and clouds is less frequent, leading to a substantial increase in surface shortwave forcing. Through feedbacks involving latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere and marine stratus clouds, surface shortwave forcing drives increases in atmospheric water vapor and global precipitation, enhances greenhouse forcing, and raises global surface temperature. Our results implicate pO2 as an important factor in climate forcing throughout geologic time.}, }
@article {pmid26067646, year = {2015}, author = {Raymond, CM and Lechner, AM and Lockwood, M and Carter, O and Harris, RMB and Gilfedder, L}, title = {Private land manager capacity to conserve threatened communities under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {159}, number = {}, pages = {235-244}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.04.048}, pmid = {26067646}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; *Models, Theoretical ; Private Sector ; Tasmania ; }, abstract = {Major global changes in vegetation community distributions and ecosystem processes are expected as a result of climate change. In agricultural regions with a predominance of private land, biodiversity outcomes will depend on the adaptive capacity of individual land managers, as well as their willingness to engage with conservation programs and actions. Understanding adaptive capacity of landholders is critical for assessing future prospects for biodiversity conservation in privately owned agricultural landscapes globally, given projected climate change. This paper is the first to develop and apply a set of statistical methods (correlation and bionomial regression analyses) for combining social data on land manager adaptive capacity and factors associated with conservation program participation with biophysical data describing the current and projected-future distribution of climate suitable for vegetation communities. We apply these methods to the Tasmanian Midlands region of Tasmania, Australia and discuss the implications of the modelled results on conservation program strategy design in other contexts. We find that the integrated results can be used by environmental management organisations to design community engagement programs, and to tailor their messages to land managers with different capacity types and information behaviours. We encourage environmental agencies to target high capacity land managers by diffusing climate change and grassland management information through well respected conservation NGOs and farm system groups, and engage low capacity land managers via formalized mentoring programs.}, }
@article {pmid26067511, year = {2015}, author = {Liu, T and Huang, HQ and Shao, M and Yao, W and Gu, J and Yu, G}, title = {Responses of streamflow and sediment load to climate change and human activity in the Upper Yellow River, China: a case of the Ten Great Gullies Basin.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {71}, number = {12}, pages = {1893-1900}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2015.167}, pmid = {26067511}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Geologic Sediments ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; *Rivers ; Soil ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants, Chemical ; }, abstract = {Soil erosion and land desertification are the most serious environmental problems globally. This study investigated the changes in streamflow and sediment load from 1964 to 2012 in the Ten Great Gullies area of the Upper Yellow River. Tests for gradual trends (Mann-Kendall test) and abrupt changes (Pettitt test) identify that significant declines in streamflow and sediment load occurred in 1997-1998 in two typical gullies. A comparison of climatic variability before and after the change points shows no statistically significant trends in annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Human activities have been very active in the region and during 1990-2010, 146.01 and 197.62 km2 of land were converted, respectively, to forests and grassland, with corresponding increases of 87.56 and 77.05%. In addition, a large number of check dams have been built up in the upper reaches of the ten gullies. These measures were likely responsible for the significant decline in the annual streamflow and sediment load over the last 49 years.}, }
@article {pmid26064654, year = {2015}, author = {Pivotto, ID and Nerini, D and Masmoudi, M and Kara, H and Chaoui, L and Aurelle, D}, title = {Highly contrasted responses of Mediterranean octocorals to climate change along a depth gradient.}, journal = {Royal Society open science}, volume = {2}, number = {5}, pages = {140493}, pmid = {26064654}, issn = {2054-5703}, abstract = {Climate change has a strong impact on marine ecosystems, including temperate species. Analysing the diversity of thermotolerance levels within species along with their genetic structure enables a better understanding of their potential response to climate change. We performed this integrative study on the Mediterranean octocoral Eunicella cavolini, with samples from different depths and by means of a common garden experiment. This species does not host photosynthetic Symbiodinium, enabling us to focus on the cnidarian response. We compared the thermotolerance of individuals from 20 m and 40 m depths from the same site and with replicates from the same colony. On the basis of an innovative statistical analysis of necrosis kinetics and risk, we demonstrated the occurrence of a very different response between depths at this local scale, with lower thermotolerance of deep individuals. Strongly thermotolerant individuals were observed at 20 m with necrosis appearing at higher temperatures than observed in situ. On the basis of nine microsatellite loci, we showed that these marked thermotolerance differences occur within a single population. This suggests the importance of acclimatization processes in adaptation to these different depths. In addition, differences between replicates demonstrated the occurrence of a variability of response between fragments from the same colony with the possibility of an interaction with a tank effect. Our results provide a basis for studying adaptation and acclimatization in Mediterranean octocorals in a heterogeneous environment.}, }
@article {pmid26063516, year = {2015}, author = {Roger, E and Duursma, DE and Downey, PO and Gallagher, RV and Hughes, L and Steel, J and Johnson, SB and Leishman, MR}, title = {A tool to assess potential for alien plant establishment and expansion under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {159}, number = {}, pages = {121-127}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.05.039}, pmid = {26063516}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Forecasting ; *Introduced Species ; Plants ; *Software ; }, abstract = {Predicting the influence of climate change on the potential distribution of naturalised alien plant species is an important and challenging task. While prioritisation of management actions for alien plants under current climatic conditions has been widely adopted, very few systems explicitly incorporate the potential of future changes in climate conditions to influence the distribution of alien plant species. Here, we develop an Australia-wide screening tool to assess the potential of naturalised alien plants to establish and spread under both current and future climatic conditions. The screening tool developed uses five spatially explicit criteria to establish the likelihood of alien plant population establishment and expansion under baseline climate conditions and future climates for the decades 2035 and 2065. Alien plants are then given a threat rating according to current and future threat to enable natural resource managers to focus on those species that pose the largest potential threat now and in the future. To demonstrate the screening tool, we present results for a representative sample of approximately 10% (n = 292) of Australia's known, naturalised alien plant species. Overall, most alien plant species showed decreases in area of habitat suitability under future conditions compared to current conditions and therefore the threat rating of most alien plant species declined between current and future conditions. Use of the screening tool is intended to assist natural resource managers in assessing the threat of alien plant establishment and spread under current and future conditions and thus prioritise detailed weed risk assessments for those species that pose the greatest threat. The screening tool is associated with a searchable database for all 292 alien plant species across a range of spatial scales, available through an interactive web-based portal at http://weedfutures.net/.}, }
@article {pmid26061091, year = {2015}, author = {Mora, C and Caldwell, IR and Caldwell, JM and Fisher, MR and Genco, BM and Running, SW}, title = {Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {e1002167}, pmid = {26061091}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Plant Development ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.}, }
@article {pmid26059656, year = {2015}, author = {Pakeman, RJ and Alexander, J and Beaton, J and Brooker, R and Cummins, R and Eastwood, A and Fielding, D and Fisher, J and Gore, S and Hewison, R and Hooper, R and Lennon, J and Mitchell, R and Moore, E and Nolan, A and Orford, K and Pemberton, C and Riach, D and Sim, D and Stockan, J and Trinder, C and Lewis, R}, title = {Species composition of coastal dune vegetation in Scotland has proved resistant to climate change over a third of a century.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {3738-3747}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12999}, pmid = {26059656}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Plants ; Scotland ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have an impact on plant communities as increased temperatures are expected to drive individual species' distributions polewards. The results of a revisitation study after c. 34 years of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, were examined to assess the degree of shifts in species composition that could be accounted for by climate change. There was little evidence for either species retreat northwards or for plots to become more dominated by species with a more southern distribution. At a few sites where significant change occurred, the changes were accounted for by the invasion, or in one instance the removal, of woody species. Also, the vegetation types that showed the most sensitivity to change were all early successional types and changes were primarily the result of succession rather than climate-driven changes. Dune vegetation appears resistant to climate change impacts on the vegetation, either as the vegetation is inherently resistant to change, management prevents increased dominance of more southerly species or because of dispersal limitation to geographically isolated sites.}, }
@article {pmid26057739, year = {2015}, author = {Thomson, RB and Alderman, RL and Tuck, GN and Hobday, AJ}, title = {Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e0127006}, pmid = {26057739}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Aging/physiology ; Animals ; Breeding ; Charadriiformes/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Feeding Behavior/physiology ; *Fisheries ; Geography ; Islands ; Likelihood Functions ; Mortality ; Rain ; South Australia ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26057724, year = {2015}, author = {He, C and Zhao, Y and Huang, Q and Zhang, Q and Zhang, D}, title = {Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {532}, number = {}, pages = {48-60}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.103}, pmid = {26057724}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape.}, }
@article {pmid26053628, year = {2015}, author = {Garcia-Menendez, F and Saari, RK and Monier, E and Selin, NE}, title = {U.S. Air Quality and Health Benefits from Avoided Climate Change under Greenhouse Gas Mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {49}, number = {13}, pages = {7580-7588}, doi = {10.1021/acs.est.5b01324}, pmid = {26053628}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects/analysis ; Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy/economics/trends ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Ozone/analysis ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; *Public Health ; United States ; }, abstract = {We evaluate the impact of climate change on U.S. air quality and health in 2050 and 2100 using a global modeling framework and integrated economic, climate, and air pollution projections. Three internally consistent socioeconomic scenarios are used to value health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation policies specifically derived from slowing climate change. Our projections suggest that climate change, exclusive of changes in air pollutant emissions, can significantly impact ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution across the U.S. and increase associated health effects. Climate policy can substantially reduce these impacts, and climate-related air pollution health benefits alone can offset a significant fraction of mitigation costs. We find that in contrast to cobenefits from reductions to coemitted pollutants, the climate-induced air quality benefits of policy increase with time and are largest between 2050 and 2100. Our projections also suggest that increasing climate policy stringency beyond a certain degree may lead to diminishing returns relative to its cost. However, our results indicate that the air quality impacts of climate change are substantial and should be considered by cost-benefit climate policy analyses.}, }
@article {pmid26052896, year = {2015}, author = {Ong, JJ and Rountrey, AN and Meeuwig, JJ and Newman, SJ and Zinke, J and Meekan, MG}, title = {Contrasting environmental drivers of adult and juvenile growth in a marine fish: implications for the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {10859}, pmid = {26052896}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Environment ; Estuaries ; Fishes/*growth &amp; development ; Oceanography/methods ; Perciformes/*growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {Many marine fishes have life history strategies that involve ontogenetic changes in the use of coastal habitats. Such ontogenetic shifts may place these species at particular risk from climate change, because the successive environments they inhabit can differ in the type, frequency and severity of changes related to global warming. We used a dendrochronology approach to examine the physical and biological drivers of growth of adult and juvenile mangrove jack (Lutjanus argentimaculatus) from tropical north-western Australia. Juveniles of this species inhabit estuarine environments and adults reside on coastal reefs. The Niño-4 index, a measure of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had the highest correlation with adult growth chronologies, with La Niña years (characterised by warmer temperatures and lower salinities) having positive impacts on growth. Atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena operating at ocean-basin scales seem to be important correlates of the processes driving growth in local coastal habitats. Conversely, terrestrial factors influencing precipitation and river runoff were positively correlated with the growth of juveniles in estuaries. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on these two life history stages are likely to be different, with implications for resilience and management of populations.}, }
@article {pmid26051595, year = {2016}, author = {Mereu, S and Sušnik, J and Trabucco, A and Daccache, A and Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, L and Renoldi, S and Virdis, A and Savić, D and Assimacopoulos, D}, title = {Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {543}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {1028-1038}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.066}, pmid = {26051595}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures. Those reservoirs at risk to future change should be identified, and mitigating measures investigated.}, }
@article {pmid26051038, year = {2015}, author = {Pergent, G and Pergent-Martini, C and Bein, A and Dedeken, M and Oberti, P and Orsini, A and Santucci, JF and Short, F}, title = {Dynamic of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows in the northwestern Mediterranean: Could climate change be to blame?.}, journal = {Comptes rendus biologies}, volume = {338}, number = {7}, pages = {484-493}, doi = {10.1016/j.crvi.2015.04.011}, pmid = {26051038}, issn = {1768-3238}, mesh = {Alismatales/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; France ; Humans ; Mediterranean Sea ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The distribution and the vitality of the P. oceanica meadow were monitored in the western Mediterranean at 15 sites along the coasts of Corsica (1000 km of coastline) using two monitoring systems, the Posidonia Monitoring Network and SeagrassNet, between 2004 and 2013. While the vitality of the meadow is satisfactory overall, due to the low impact of human pressure along these coasts, patterns of change over time show a slight degradation of the main descriptors of the meadow. The meadow's vitality index had declined on average by 8.6%, the BiPo index by 9.8%, and there was a regression of the lower limit at six sites. While this pattern of change may reflect local alterations in the environment (increase or decline in human pressure), the regressive dynamic of the meadow observed at the lower limit at several reference sites (e.g., Marine Protected Areas, sites distant from sources of human impact) is more worrying. Two hypotheses might explain the regression observed: (i) the rise in mean sea level during the study period, which may have resulted in a significant regression in sectors where the slope is relatively slight, and (ii) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which declined from 2002 to reach very low values in 2010.}, }
@article {pmid26045435, year = {2015}, author = {Deutsch, C and Ferrel, A and Seibel, B and Pörtner, HO and Huey, RB}, title = {Ecophysiology. Climate change tightens a metabolic constraint on marine habitats.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {348}, number = {6239}, pages = {1132-1135}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaa1605}, pmid = {26045435}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Anaerobiosis ; Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*metabolism ; Brachyura/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Gadus morhua/metabolism ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen/*metabolism ; Perciformes/metabolism ; Sea Bream/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Warming of the oceans and consequent loss of dissolved oxygen (O2) will alter marine ecosystems, but a mechanistic framework to predict the impact of multiple stressors on viable habitat is lacking. Here, we integrate physiological, climatic, and biogeographic data to calibrate and then map a key metabolic index-the ratio of O2 supply to resting metabolic O2 demand-across geographic ranges of several marine ectotherms. These species differ in thermal and hypoxic tolerances, but their contemporary distributions are all bounded at the equatorward edge by a minimum metabolic index of ~2 to 5, indicative of a critical energetic requirement for organismal activity. The combined effects of warming and O2 loss this century are projected to reduce the upper ocean's metabolic index by ~20% globally and by ~50% in northern high-latitude regions, forcing poleward and vertical contraction of metabolically viable habitats and species ranges.}, }
@article {pmid26044301, year = {2015}, author = {Karl, TR and Arguez, A and Huang, B and Lawrimore, JH and McMahon, JR and Menne, MJ and Peterson, TC and Vose, RS and Zhang, HM}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {348}, number = {6242}, pages = {1469-1472}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaa5632}, pmid = {26044301}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature.}, }
@article {pmid26043188, year = {2015}, author = {Basso, B and Hyndman, DW and Kendall, AD and Grace, PR and Robertson, GP}, title = {Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e0127333}, pmid = {26043188}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; *Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nebraska ; Rain ; Seasons ; Soil ; Water ; Zea mays/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability.}, }
@article {pmid26039749, year = {2014}, author = {}, title = {Erratum: When climate change couples social neglect: malaria dynamics in Panamá.}, journal = {Emerging microbes &amp; infections}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {e38}, doi = {10.1038/emi.2014.41}, pmid = {26039749}, issn = {2222-1751}, abstract = {[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/emi.2014.27.].}, }
@article {pmid26039087, year = {2015}, author = {Pei, Q and Zhang, DD and Li, G and Lee, HF}, title = {Climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial europe: new evidence from wavelet analysis.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e0126480}, pmid = {26039087}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate Change/*history ; Economics ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; Humans ; *Models, Economic ; }, abstract = {The relationship between climate change and the macroeconomy in pre-industrial Europe has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This study follows the combined paradigms of evolutionary economics and ecological economics, in which wavelet analysis (spectrum analysis and coherence analysis) is applied as the first attempt to examine the relationship between climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial Europe in the frequency domain. Aside from confirming previous results, this study aims to further substantiate the association between climate change and macroeconomy by presenting new evidence obtained from the wavelet analysis. Our spectrum analysis shows a consistent and continuous frequency band of 60-80 years in the temperature, grain yield ratio, grain price, consumer price index, and real wage throughout the study period. Besides, coherence analysis shows that the macroeconomic structure is shaped more by climate change than population change. In addition, temperature is proven as a key climatic factor that influences the macroeconomic structure. The analysis reveals a unique frequency band of about 20 years (15-35 years) in the temperature in AD1600-1700, which could have contributed to the widespread economic crisis in pre-industrial Europe. Our findings may have indications in re-examining the Malthusian theory.}, }
@article {pmid26039073, year = {2015}, author = {Chang, XY and Chen, BM and Liu, G and Zhou, T and Jia, XR and Peng, SL}, title = {Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e0126228}, pmid = {26039073}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; *Plants ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26038557, year = {2015}, author = {Crowther, TW and Thomas, SM and Maynard, DS and Baldrian, P and Covey, K and Frey, SD and van Diepen, LT and Bradford, MA}, title = {Biotic interactions mediate soil microbial feedbacks to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {22}, pages = {7033-7038}, pmid = {26038557}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Feedback ; *Food Chain ; Fungi/*physiology ; Isopoda/*physiology ; Massachusetts ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Decomposition of organic material by soil microbes generates an annual global release of 50-75 Pg carbon to the atmosphere, ∼7.5-9 times that of anthropogenic emissions worldwide. This process is sensitive to global change factors, which can drive carbon cycle-climate feedbacks with the potential to enhance atmospheric warming. Although the effects of interacting global change factors on soil microbial activity have been a widespread ecological focus, the regulatory effects of interspecific interactions are rarely considered in climate feedback studies. We explore the potential of soil animals to mediate microbial responses to warming and nitrogen enrichment within a long-term, field-based global change study. The combination of global change factors alleviated the bottom-up limitations on fungal growth, stimulating enzyme production and decomposition rates in the absence of soil animals. However, increased fungal biomass also stimulated consumption rates by soil invertebrates, restoring microbial process rates to levels observed under ambient conditions. Our results support the contemporary theory that top-down control in soil food webs is apparent only in the absence of bottom-up limitation. As such, when global change factors alleviate the bottom-up limitations on microbial activity, top-down control becomes an increasingly important regulatory force with the capacity to dampen the strength of positive carbon cycle-climate feedbacks.}, }
@article {pmid26036847, year = {2015}, author = {Licuanan, WY and Samson, MS and Mamauag, SS and David, LT and Borja-Del Rosario, R and Quibilan, MC and Siringan, FP and Sta Maria, MY and España, NB and Villanoy, CL and Geronimo, RC and Cabrera, OC and Martinez, RJ and Aliño, PM}, title = {I-C-SEA Change: A participatory tool for rapid assessment of vulnerability of tropical coastal communities to climate change impacts.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44}, number = {8}, pages = {718-736}, pmid = {26036847}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Coral Reefs ; *Decision Support Techniques ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Humans ; Tropical Climate ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {We present a synoptic, participatory vulnerability assessment tool to help identify the likely impacts of climate change and human activity in coastal areas and begin discussions among stakeholders on the coping and adaptation measures necessary to minimize these impacts. Vulnerability assessment tools are most needed in the tropical Indo-Pacific, where burgeoning populations and inequitable economic growth place even greater burdens on natural resources and support ecosystems. The Integrated Coastal Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change (I-C-SEA Change) tool is built around a series of scoring rubrics to guide non-specialists in assigning scores to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components of vulnerability, particularly for coral reef, seagrass, and mangrove habitats, along with fisheries and coastal integrity. These scores are then weighed against threat or exposure to climate-related impacts such as marine flooding and erosion. The tool provides opportunities for learning by engaging more stakeholders in participatory planning and group decision-making. It also allows for information to be collated and processed during a "town-hall" meeting, facilitating further discussion, data validation, and even interactive scenario building.}, }
@article {pmid26034009, year = {2015}, author = {de Pinto, MC and Locato, V and Paradiso, A and De Gara, L}, title = {Role of redox homeostasis in thermo-tolerance under a climate change scenario.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {116}, number = {4}, pages = {487-496}, pmid = {26034009}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/metabolism ; *Homeostasis ; *Hot Temperature ; *Oxidation-Reduction ; Plants/*metabolism ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change predictions indicate a progressive increase in average temperatures and an increase in the frequency of heatwaves, which will have a negative impact on crop productivity. Over the last decade, a number of studies have addressed the question of how model plants or specific crops modify their metabolism when exposed to heat stress.<br><br>SCOPE: This review provides an overview of the redox pathways that contribute to how plants cope with heat stress. The focus is on the role of reactive oxygen species (ROS), redox metabolites and enzymes in the signalling pathways leading to the activation of defence responses. Additional attention is paid to the regulating mechanisms that lead to an increase in specific ROS-scavenging systems during heat stress, which have been studied in different model systems. Finally, increasing thermo-tolerance in model and crop plants by exposing them to heat acclimation or to exogenous treatments is discussed.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Although there is clear evidence that several strategies are specifically activated according to the intensity and the duration of heat stress, as well as the capacity of the different species or genotypes to overcome stress, an alteration in redox homeostasis seems to be a common event. Different mechanisms that act to enhance redox systems enable crops to overcome heat stress more effectively. Knowledge of thermo-tolerance within agronomic biodiversity is thus of key importance to enable researchers to identify new strategies for overcoming the impacts of climate change, and for decision-makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options open to them.}, }
@article {pmid26033432, year = {2015}, author = {Huang, G and Rymer, PD and Duan, H and Smith, RA and Tissue, DT}, title = {Elevated temperature is more effective than elevated [CO2 ] in exposing genotypic variation in Telopea speciosissima growth plasticity: implications for woody plant populations under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {3800-3813}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12990}, pmid = {26033432}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Gene-Environment Interaction ; Genotype ; New South Wales ; Phenotype ; Proteaceae/*genetics/*growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity is a critical determinant of plant species capacity to cope with climate change. A long-standing hypothesis states that greater levels of environmental variability will select for genotypes with greater phenotypic plasticity. However, few studies have examined how genotypes of woody species originating from contrasting environments respond to multiple climate change factors. Here, we investigated the main and interactive effects of elevated [CO2 ] (CE) and elevated temperature (TE) on growth and physiology of Coastal (warmer, less variable temperature environment) and Upland (cooler, more variable temperature environment) genotypes of an Australian woody species Telopea speciosissima. Both genotypes were positively responsive to CE (35% and 29% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively), but only the Coastal genotype exhibited positive growth responses to TE . We found that the Coastal genotype exhibited greater growth response to TE (47% and 85% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively) when compared with the Upland genotype (no change in dry mass or leaf area). No intraspecific variation in physiological plasticity was detected under CE or TE , and the interactive effects of CE and TE on intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity were also largely absent. Overall, TE was a more effective climate factor than CE in exposing genotypic variation in our woody species. Our results contradict the paradigm that genotypes from more variable climates will exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity in future climate regimes.}, }
@article {pmid26033253, year = {2015}, author = {Shi, J and Visschers, VH and Siegrist, M}, title = {Public Perception of Climate Change: The Importance of Knowledge and Cultural Worldviews.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {35}, number = {12}, pages = {2183-2201}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12406}, pmid = {26033253}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Cultural Characteristics ; Female ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Perception ; *Public Opinion ; Regression Analysis ; Risk ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Switzerland ; }, abstract = {The importance of knowledge for lay people's climate change concerns has been questioned in recent years, as it had been suggested that cultural values are stronger predictors of concern about climate change than knowledge. Studies that simultaneously measured knowledge related to climate change and cultural values have, however, been missing. We conducted a mail survey in the German-speaking part of Switzerland (N = 1,065). Results suggested that cultural worldviews and climate-related knowledge were significantly related with people's concern about climate change. Also, cultural worldviews and climate-relevant knowledge appeared important for people's willingness to change behaviors and to accept climate change policies. In addition, different types of knowledge were found to have different impacts on people's concern about climate change, their willingness to change behaviors, and their acceptance of policies about climate change. Specifically, causal knowledge significantly increased concern about climate change and willingness to support climate-friendly policies. We therefore concluded that risk communication should focus on causal knowledge, provided this knowledge does not threaten cultural values.}, }
@article {pmid26031913, year = {2015}, author = {Luebke, JF and Clayton, S and Kelly, LA and Grajal, A}, title = {Global climate change attitudes and perceptions among south American zoo visitors.}, journal = {Zoo biology}, volume = {34}, number = {4}, pages = {393}, doi = {10.1002/zoo.21224}, pmid = {26031913}, issn = {1098-2361}, mesh = {Animals ; *Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Perception ; *Public Opinion ; South America ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {There is a substantial gap between the scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change and the human response to this evidence. Perceptions of and responses to climate change can differ among regions of the world, as well as within countries. Therefore, information about the public's attitudes and perceptions related to climate change is essential to the development of relevant educational resources. In the present study, zoo visitors in four South American countries responded to a questionnaire regarding their attitudes and perceptions toward global climate change. Results indicated that most respondents are already highly concerned about global climate change and are interested in greater engagement in pro-environmental behaviors. Visitors also perceive various obstacles to engagement in climate change mitigation behaviors. We discuss the results of our study in terms of addressing visitors' climate change attitudes and perceptions within the social and emotional context of zoo settings.}, }
@article {pmid26030883, year = {2015}, author = {Hill, JE and Paladino, FV and Spotila, JR and Tomillo, PS}, title = {Shading and watering as a tool to mitigate the impacts of climate change in sea turtle nests.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {e0129528}, pmid = {26030883}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Costa Rica ; Nesting Behavior/*physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Sex Ratio ; Temperature ; Turtles/*physiology ; Water/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Increasing sand temperatures resulting from climate change may negatively impact sea turtle nests by altering sex ratios and decreasing reproductive output. We analyzed the effect of nest shading and watering on sand temperatures as climate mitigation strategies in a beach hatchery at Playa Grande, Costa Rica. We set up plots and placed thermocouples at depths of 45 cm and 75 cm. Half of the plots were shaded and half were exposed to the sun. Within these exposure treatments, we applied three watering treatments over one month, replicating local climatic conditions experienced in this area. We also examined gravimetric water content of sand by collecting sand samples the day before watering began, the day after watering was complete, and one month after completion. Shading had the largest impact on sand temperature, followed by watering and depth. All watering treatments lowered sand temperature, but the effect varied with depth. Temperatures in plots that received water returned to control levels within 10 days after watering stopped. Water content increased at both depths in the two highest water treatments, and 30 days after the end of water application remained higher than plots with low water. While the impacts of watering on sand temperature dissipate rapidly after the end of application, the impacts on water content are much more lasting. Although less effective at lowering sand temperatures than shading, watering may benefit sea turtle clutches by offsetting negative impacts of low levels of rain in particularly dry areas. Prior to implementing such strategies, the natural conditions at the location of interest (e.g. clutch depth, environmental conditions, and beach characteristics) and natural hatchling sex ratios should be taken into consideration. These results provide insight into the effectiveness of nest shading and watering as climate mitigation techniques and illustrate important points of consideration in the crafting of such strategies.}, }
@article {pmid26030069, year = {2015}, author = {Tibbetts, JH}, title = {Air quality and climate change: a delicate balance.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {123}, number = {6}, pages = {A148-53}, pmid = {26030069}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Ozone/*analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid26027589, year = {2015}, author = {González, G}, title = {Climate Change Highlights a Potentially Dangerous Trade-off.}, journal = {MEDICC review}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {51-52}, doi = {10.37757/MR2015.V17.N2.12}, pmid = {26027589}, issn = {1527-3172}, mesh = {Asbestos/*adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/etiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Cuba ; Disaster Planning/*methods/standards ; *Ecological Parameter Monitoring ; Housing/*standards ; Humans ; Long Term Adverse Effects ; }, }
@article {pmid26027583, year = {2015}, author = {Ortiz, PL and Rivero, A and Linares, Y and Pérez, A and Vázquez, JR}, title = {Spatial Models for Prediction and Early Warning of Aedes aegypti Proliferation from Data on Climate Change and Variability in Cuba.}, journal = {MEDICC review}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {20-28}, doi = {10.37757/MR2015.V17.N2.6}, pmid = {26027583}, issn = {1527-3172}, mesh = {*Aedes ; Animals ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Cuba ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Insect Vectors ; Models, Biological ; Population Growth ; Population Surveillance/methods ; Prospective Studies ; Retrospective Studies ; Space-Time Clustering ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate variability, the primary expression of climate change, is one of the most important environmental problems affecting human health, particularly vector-borne diseases. Despite research efforts worldwide, there are few studies addressing the use of information on climate variability for prevention and early warning of vector-borne infectious diseases.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: Show the utility of climate information for vector surveillance by developing spatial models using an entomological indicator and information on predicted climate variability in Cuba to provide early warning of danger of increased risk of dengue transmission.<br><br>METHOD: An ecological study was carried out using retrospective and prospective analyses of time series combined with spatial statistics. Several entomological and climatic indicators were considered using complex Bult&#xf3; indices -1 and -2. Moran's I spatial autocorrelation coefficient specified for a matrix of neighbors with a radius of 20 km, was used to identify the spatial structure. Spatial structure simulation was based on simultaneous autoregressive and conditional autoregressive models; agreement between predicted and observed values for number of Aedes aegypti foci was determined by the concordance index Di and skill factor Bi.<br><br>RESULTS: Spatial and temporal distributions of populations of Aedes aegypti were obtained. Models for describing, simulating and predicting spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti populations associated with climate variability patterns were put forward. The ranges of climate variability affecting Aedes aegypti populations were identified. Forecast maps were generated for the municipal level.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Using the Bult&#xf3; indices of climate variability, it is possible to construct spatial models for predicting increased Aedes aegypti populations in Cuba. At 20 x 20 km resolution, the models are able to provide warning of potential changes in vector populations in rainy and dry seasons and by month, thus demonstrating the usefulness of climate information for epidemiological surveillance.}, }
@article {pmid26027581, year = {2015}, author = {Alonso, G and Clark, I}, title = {Cuba confronts climate change.}, journal = {MEDICC review}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {10-13}, doi = {10.37757/MR2015.V17.N2.4}, pmid = {26027581}, issn = {1527-3172}, mesh = {Communicable Disease Control/economics/*methods ; Cuba/epidemiology ; Disaster Planning/economics/methods/*organization &amp; administration ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming/economics/mortality/*prevention &amp; control ; Health Planning/economics/methods/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy/economics ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid27570840, year = {2015}, author = {Nawrotzki, RJ and Riosmena, F and Hunter, LM and Runfola, DM}, title = {Undocumented migration in response to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of population studies}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {60-74}, pmid = {27570840}, issn = {2424-8150}, support = {P2C HD066613/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R24 HD041023/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R24 HD066613/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986-1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.}, }
@article {pmid27417373, year = {2015}, author = {Stanley, F and Farrant, B}, title = {Climate Change and Children's Health: A Commentary.}, journal = {Children (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {412-423}, pmid = {27417373}, issn = {2227-9067}, abstract = {This commentary describes the likely impacts on children's health and wellbeing from climate change, based on the solid science of environmental child health. It describes likely climate change scenarios, why children are more vulnerable than older people to these changes, and what to expect in terms of diseases (e.g., infections, asthma) and problems (e.g., malnutrition, mental illness). The common antecedents of climate change and other detrimental changes to our society mean that in combatting them (such as excessive consumption and greed), we may not only reduce the harmful effects of climate change but also work towards a better society overall-one that values its children and their futures.}, }
@article {pmid26937271, year = {2015}, author = {Lawler, J and Watson, J and Game, E}, title = {Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments.}, journal = {F1000Research}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {26937271}, issn = {2046-1402}, abstract = {An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation-a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid27583293, year = {2014}, author = {Hetem, RS and Fuller, A and Maloney, SK and Mitchell, D}, title = {Responses of large mammals to climate change.}, journal = {Temperature (Austin, Tex.)}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {115-127}, pmid = {27583293}, issn = {2332-8940}, abstract = {Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26151878, year = {2014}, author = {Naeher, S and North, RP and Gilli, A and Livingstonec, DM and Schubert, CJ}, title = {Lake Sediments Tell the Story of Climate Change.}, journal = {Chimia}, volume = {68}, number = {5}, pages = {333}, doi = {10.2533/chimia.2014.333}, pmid = {26151878}, issn = {0009-4293}, }
@article {pmid26038518, year = {2014}, author = {Hurtado, LA and Cáceres, L and Chaves, LF and Calzada, JE}, title = {When climate change couples social neglect: malaria dynamics in Panamá.}, journal = {Emerging microbes &amp; infections}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {e27}, pmid = {26038518}, issn = {2222-1751}, abstract = {A major challenge of infectious disease elimination is the need to interrupt pathogen transmission across all vulnerable populations. Ethnic minorities are among the key vulnerable groups deserving special attention in disease elimination initiatives, especially because their lifestyle might be intrinsically linked to locations with high transmission risk. There has been a renewed interest in malaria elimination, which has ignited a quest to understand factors necessary for sustainable malaria elimination, highlighting the need for diverse approaches to address epidemiological heterogeneity across malaria transmission settings. An analysis of malaria incidence among the Guna Amerindians of Panamá over the last 34 years showed that this ethnic minority was highly vulnerable to changes that were assumed to not impact malaria transmission. Epidemic outbreaks were linked with El Niño Southern Oscillations and were sensitive to political instability and policy changes that did not ensure adequate attention to the malaria control needs of the Gunas. Our results illustrate how the neglect of minorities poses a threat to the sustainable control and eventual elimination of malaria in Central America and other areas where ethnic minorities do not share the benefits of malaria control strategies intended for dominant ethnic groups.}, }
@article {pmid27064520, year = {2014}, author = {Trawöger, L}, title = {Convinced, ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change.}, journal = {Tourism management}, volume = {40}, number = {}, pages = {338-351}, pmid = {27064520}, issn = {0261-5177}, abstract = {Its focus on snow-dependent activities makes Alpine winter tourism especially sensitive to climate change. Stakeholder risk perceptions are a key factor in adaptation to climate change because they fundamentally drive or constrain stakeholder action. This paper examines climate change perceptions of winter tourism stakeholders in Tyrol (Austria). Using a qualitative approach, expert interviews were conducted. Four opinion categories reflecting different attitudes toward climate change issues were identified: convinced planners, annoyed deniers, ambivalent optimists, convinced wait-and-seers. Although the findings generally indicate a growing awareness of climate change, this awareness is mainly limited to perceiving the issue as a global phenomenon. Awareness of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change that lead to a demand for action could not be identified. Current technical strategies, like snowmaking, are not primarily climate-induced. At present, coping with climate change is not a priority for risk management. The findings point out the importance of gaining and transferring knowledge of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change in order to induce action at the destination level.}, }
@article {pmid27417491, year = {2014}, author = {Bennett, CM and Friel, S}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health.}, journal = {Children (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {461-473}, pmid = {27417491}, issn = {2227-9067}, abstract = {This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world's poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health.}, }
@article {pmid27417487, year = {2014}, author = {Swaminathan, A and Lucas, RM and Harley, D and McMichael, AJ}, title = {Will Global Climate Change Alter Fundamental Human Immune Reactivity: Implications for Child Health?.}, journal = {Children (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {403-423}, pmid = {27417487}, issn = {2227-9067}, abstract = {The human immune system is an interface across which many climate change sensitive exposures can affect health outcomes. Gaining an understanding of the range of potential effects that climate change could have on immune function will be of considerable importance, particularly for child health, but has, as yet, received minimal research attention. We postulate several mechanisms whereby climate change sensitive exposures and conditions will subtly impair aspects of the human immune response, thereby altering the distribution of vulnerability within populations-particularly for children-to infection and disease. Key climate change-sensitive pathways include under-nutrition, psychological stress and exposure to ambient ultraviolet radiation, with effects on susceptibility to infection, allergy and autoimmune diseases. Other climate change sensitive exposures may also be important and interact, either additively or synergistically, to alter health risks. Conducting directed research in this area is imperative as the potential public health implications of climate change-induced weakening of the immune system at both individual and population levels are profound. This is particularly relevant for the already vulnerable children of the developing world, who will bear a disproportionate burden of future adverse environmental and geopolitical consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid27417469, year = {2014}, author = {McMichael, AJ}, title = {Climate Change and Children: Health Risks of Abatement Inaction, Health Gains from Action.}, journal = {Children (Basel, Switzerland)}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {99-106}, pmid = {27417469}, issn = {2227-9067}, abstract = {As human-driven climate change advances, many adults fret about the losses of livelihoods, houses and farms that may result. Children fret about their parents' worries and about information they hear, but do not really understand about the world's climate and perhaps about their own futures. In chronically worried or anxious children, blood cortisol levels rise and adverse changes accrue in various organ systems that prefigure adult-life diseases. Meanwhile, for many millions of children in poor countries who hear little news and live with day-to-day fatalism, climate change threatens the fundamentals of life-food sufficiency, safe drinking water and physical security-and heightens the risks of diarrhoeal disease, malaria and other climate-sensitive infections. Poor and disadvantaged populations, and especially their children, will bear the brunt of climate-related trauma, disease and premature death over the next few decades and, less directly, from social disruption, impoverishment and displacement. The recent droughts in Somalia as the Indian Ocean warmed and monsoonal rains failed, on top of chronic civil war, forced hundreds of thousands of Somali families into north-eastern Kenya's vast Dadaab refugee camps, where, for children, shortages of food, water, hygiene and schooling has endangered physical, emotional and mental health. Children warrant special concern, both as children per se and as the coming generation likely to face ever more extreme climate conditions later this century. As children, they face diverse risks, from violent weather, proliferating aeroallergens, heat extremes and mobilised microbes, through to reduced recreational facilities, chronic anxieties about the future and health hazards of displacement and local resource conflict. Many will come to regard their parents' generation and complacency as culpable.}, }
@article {pmid27293656, year = {2014}, author = {Buckley, LB and Nufio, CR}, title = {Elevational clines in the temperature dependence of insect performance and implications for ecological responses to climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {cou035}, pmid = {27293656}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {To what extent is insect hopping and feeding performance, which constrains the ability to obtain and assimilate resources, thermally adapted along an elevation gradient? Does temperature dependence vary between populations and species and can differences account for individualistic responses to past climate change? We investigate these questions for three species of grasshoppers along a Rocky Mountain elevation gradient. All species and populations exhibit warm adaptation for consumption and digestion, with only modest inter- and intra-specific differences. Species differ substantially in the temperature of peak hopping performance. Low-elevation populations of the warm-adapted species exhibit the highest performance at high temperatures and the lowest performance at low temperatures. Developmental plasticity influences the temperature dependence of performance; grasshoppers reared at higher temperatures perform better at higher temperatures and possess broader thermal tolerance. We fitted thermal performance curves to examine whether performance shifts can account for changes in abundance between initial surveys in 1958-1960 and recent surveys since 2006. All species and populations are able to achieve greater feeding rates now. Estimated shifts in hopping performance vary between species and along the elevation gradient. The cool-adapted species has experienced declines in hopping performance, particularly at the lower elevation sites, while the warm-adapted species has experienced increases in performance concentrated at higher elevations. These estimated performance shifts broadly concur with observed abundance shifts. Performance metrics may have a greater potential to elucidate differential responses to climate change between populations and species than coarser and oft-used proxies, such as thermal tolerance. Assessing performance directly when temperature dependence varies between processes such as the acquisition and assimilation of energy may be essential to understanding population- and species-level impacts.}, }
@article {pmid27293649, year = {2014}, author = {Shultz, AD and Zuckerman, ZC and Stewart, HA and Suski, CD}, title = {Seasonal blood chemistry response of sub-tropical nearshore fishes to climate change.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {cou028}, pmid = {27293649}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Climate change due to anthropogenic activity will continue to alter the chemistry of the oceans. Future climate scenarios indicate that sub-tropical oceans will become more acidic, and the temperature and salinity will increase relative to current conditions. A large portion of previous work has focused on how future climate scenarios may impact shell-forming organisms and coral reef fish, with little attention given to fish that inhabit nearshore habitats; few studies have examined multiple challenges concurrently. The purpose of this study was to quantify the blood-based physiological response of nearshore fishes to a suite of seawater conditions associated with future climate change. Fish were exposed to an acute (30 min) increase in salinity (50 ppt), acidity (decrease in pH by 0.5 units) or temperature (7-10°C), or temperature and acidity combined, and held in these conditions for 6 h. Their physiological responses were compared across seasons (i.e. summer vs. winter). Bonefish (Albula vulpes) exposed to environmental challenges in the summer experienced a suite of blood-based osmotic and ionic disturbances relative to fish held in ambient conditions, with thermal challenges (particularly in the summer) being the most challenging. Conversely, no significant treatment effects were observed for yellowfin mojarra (Gerres cinereus) or checkered puffer (Sphoeroides testudineus) in either season. Together, results from this study demonstrate that acute climate-induced changes to thermal habitat will be the most challenging for sub-tropical fishes (particularly in the summer) relative to salinity and pH stressors, but significant variation across species exists.}, }
@article {pmid27293629, year = {2014}, author = {Komoroske, LM and Connon, RE and Lindberg, J and Cheng, BS and Castillo, G and Hasenbein, M and Fangue, NA}, title = {Ontogeny influences sensitivity to climate change stressors in an endangered fish.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {cou008}, pmid = {27293629}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Coastal ecosystems are among the most human-impacted habitats globally, and their management is often critically linked to recovery of declining native species. In the San Francisco Estuary, the Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) is an endemic, endangered fish strongly tied to Californian conservation planning. The complex life history of Delta Smelt combined with dynamic seasonal and spatial abiotic conditions result in dissimilar environments experienced among ontogenetic stages, which may yield stage-specific susceptibility to abiotic stressors. Climate change is forecasted to increase San Francisco Estuary water temperature and salinity; therefore, understanding the influences of ontogeny and phenotypic plasticity on tolerance to these critical environmental parameters is particularly important for Delta Smelt and other San Francisco Estuary fishes. We assessed thermal and salinity limits in several ontogenetic stages and acclimation states of Delta Smelt, and paired these data with environmental data to evaluate sensitivity to climate-change stressors. Thermal tolerance decreased among successive stages, with larval fish exhibiting the highest tolerance and post-spawning adults having the lowest. Delta Smelt had limited capacity to increase tolerance through thermal acclimation, and comparisons with field temperature data revealed that juvenile tolerance limits are the closest to current environmental conditions, which may make this stage especially susceptible to future climate warming. Maximal water temperatures observed in situ exceeded tolerance limits of juveniles and adults. Although these temperature events are currently rare, if they increase in frequency as predicted, it could result in habitat loss at these locations despite other favourable conditions for Delta Smelt. In contrast, Delta Smelt tolerated salinities spanning the range of expected environmental conditions for each ontogenetic stage, but salinity did impact survival in juvenile and adult stages in exposures over acute time scales. Our results underscore the importance of considering ontogeny and phenotypic plasticity in assessing the impacts of climate change, particularly for species adapted to spatially and temporally heterogeneous environments.}, }
@article {pmid26462585, year = {2014}, author = {Scriber, JM and Elliot, B and Maher, E and McGuire, M and Niblack, M}, title = {Adaptations to "Thermal Time" Constraints in Papilio: Latitudinal and Local Size Clines Differ in Response to Regional Climate Change.}, journal = {Insects}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {199-226}, pmid = {26462585}, issn = {2075-4450}, abstract = {Adaptations to "thermal time" (=Degree-day) constraints on developmental rates and voltinism for North American tiger swallowtail butterflies involve most life stages, and at higher latitudes include: smaller pupae/adults; larger eggs; oviposition on most nutritious larval host plants; earlier spring adult emergences; faster larval growth and shorter molting durations at lower temperatures. Here we report on forewing sizes through 30 years for both the northern univoltine P. canadensis (with obligate diapause) from the Great Lakes historical hybrid zone northward to central Alaska (65° N latitude), and the multivoltine, P. glaucus from this hybrid zone southward to central Florida (27° N latitude). Despite recent climate warming, no increases in mean forewing lengths of P. glaucus were observed at any major collection location (FL to MI) from the 1980s to 2013 across this long latitudinal transect (which reflects the "converse of Bergmann's size Rule", with smaller females at higher latitudes). Unlike lower latitudes, the Alaska, Ontonogon, and Chippewa/Mackinac locations (for P. canadensis) showed no significant increases in D-day accumulations, which could explain lack of size change in these northernmost locations. As a result of 3-4 decades of empirical data from major collection sites across these latitudinal clines of North America, a general "voltinism/size/D-day" model is presented, which more closely predicts female size based on D-day accumulations, than does latitude. However, local "climatic cold pockets" in northern Michigan and Wisconsin historically appeared to exert especially strong size constraints on female forewing lengths, but forewing lengths quickly increased with local summer warming during the recent decade, especially near the warming edges of the cold pockets. Results of fine-scale analyses of these "cold pockets" are in contrast to non-significant changes for other Papilio populations seen across the latitudinal transect for P. glaucus and P. canadensis in general, highlighting the importance of scale in adaptations to climate change. Furthermore, we also show that rapid size increases in cold pocket P. canadensis females with recent summer warming are more likely to result from phenotypic plasticity than genotypic introgression from P. glaucus, which does increase size in late-flight hybrids and P. appalachiensis.}, }
@article {pmid26321799, year = {2014}, author = {de Koning, J and Turnhout, E and Winkel, G and Blondet, M and Borras, L and Ferranti, F and Geitzenauer, M and Sotirov, M and Jump, A}, title = {Managing climate change in conservation practice: an exploration of the science-management interface in beech forest management.}, journal = {Biodiversity and conservation}, volume = {23}, number = {14}, pages = {3657-3671}, pmid = {26321799}, issn = {0960-3115}, abstract = {Scientific studies reveal significant consequences of climate change for nature, from ecosystems to individual species. Such studies are important factors in policy decisions on forest conservation and management in Europe. However, while research has shown that climate change research start to impact on European conservation policies like Natura 2000, climate change information has yet to translate into management practices. This article contributes to the on-going debates about science-society relations and knowledge utilization by exploring and analysing the interface between scientific knowledge and forest management practice. We focus specifically on climate change debates in conservation policy and on how managers of forest areas in Europe perceive and use climate change ecology. Our findings show that forest managers do not necessarily deny the potential importance of climate change for their management practices, at least in the future, but have reservations about the current usefulness of available knowledge for their own areas and circumstances. This suggests that the science-management interface is not as politicized as current policy debates about climate change and that the use of climate change ecology is situated in practice. We conclude the article by discussing what forms of knowledge may enable responsible and future oriented management in practice focusing specifically on the role of reflexive experimentation and monitoring.}, }
@article {pmid26215300, year = {2014}, author = {Coyle, M}, title = {Understanding Resistance to Climate Change Resistance.}, journal = {International journal of aging &amp; human development}, volume = {80}, number = {1}, pages = {76-86}, doi = {10.1177/0091415015591111}, pmid = {26215300}, issn = {0091-4150}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Environment ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Fifty years after the emergence of warnings over the effects of the environmental impacts of industrialization and other conditions of a planet subjugated by humans, we are still entertaining discussions about the existence of the phenomena of climate change. Worse still, we have not checked the behaviors and conditions that exacerbate the rate of environmental destruction. Older people, particularly those who are economically vulnerable, are among those most at risk in disasters, including events resulting from climate change. By applying the "epistemologies of ignorance" outlined by Nancy Tuana, I attempt to understand the rooted ignorance that prevents acceptance of the environmental impact of human kind's unrepentant misuse of the world's natural resources and the refusal to curb the excesses that have lead to environmental damage that has had, and that will continue to have, dire consequences on the planet and for the most vulnerable denizens of Earth. Far from being a pessimistic project of abjection and despair, this article proposes that an examination of climate change denial can provide guidance for the development of a better counter-narrative.}, }
@article {pmid26215299, year = {2014}, author = {Moody, HR}, title = {Overcoming Objections by Elders to Action on Climate Change.}, journal = {International journal of aging &amp; human development}, volume = {80}, number = {1}, pages = {64-75}, doi = {10.1177/0091415015591110}, pmid = {26215299}, issn = {0091-4150}, mesh = {Aged ; Aging/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid26120514, year = {2014}, author = {D'Amato, G and Bergmann, KC and Cecchi, L and Annesi-Maesano, I and Sanduzzi, A and Liccardi, G and Vitale, C and Stanziola, A and D'Amato, M}, title = {Climate change and air pollution: Effects on pollen allergy and other allergic respiratory diseases.}, journal = {Allergo journal international}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {17-23}, pmid = {26120514}, issn = {2197-0378}, abstract = {The observational evidence indicates that recent regional changes in climate, particularly temperature increases, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. Allergens patterns are also changing in response to climate change and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollen grains especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. Although genetic factors are important in the development of asthma and allergic diseases, their rising trend can be explained only by changes occurring in the environment and urban air pollution by motor vehicles has been indicated as one of the major risk factors responsible for this increase. Despite some differences in the air pollution profile and decreasing trends of some key air pollutants, air quality is an important concern for public health in the cities throughout the world. Due to climate change, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanized areas of the world with a significant effect on respiratory health. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known yet. The consequences on health vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, and exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases. In addition, it is important to recall that an individual's response to pollution exposure depends on the source and components of air pollution, as well as meteorological conditions. Indeed, some air pollution-related incidents with asthma aggravation do not depend only on the increased production of air pollution, but rather on atmospheric factors that favor the accumulation of air pollutants at ground level. Associations between thunderstorms and asthma morbidity of pollinosis-affected people have also been identified in multiple locations around the world (Fig.1). Cite this as D'Amato G, Bergmann KC, Cecchi L, Annesi-Maesano I, Sanduzzi A, Liccardi G, Vitale C, Stanziola A, D'Amato M. Climate change and air pollution - Effects on pollen allergy and other allergic respiratory diseases. Allergo J Int 2014; 23: 17-23 DOI 10.1007/s40629-014-0003-7 A factor clouding the problem is that laboratory evaluations do not reflect what happens during natural exposition. Considering these aspects, governments worldwide, international organizations, and cooperations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Health Policy of the European Union (EU) are facing a growing problem of the respiratory effects induced by gaseous and particulate pollutants arising from motor vehicle emissions.}, }
@article {pmid27087778, year = {2013}, author = {Reuter, M and Kern, AK and Harzhauser, M and Kroh, A and Piller, WE}, title = {Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.}, journal = {Gondwana research : international geoscience journal}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {1172-1177}, pmid = {27087778}, issn = {1342-937X}, support = {P 23492/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, abstract = {Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.}, }
@article {pmid27501580, year = {2013}, author = {Montgomery, H}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH: A FEBRILE PLANET.}, journal = {Transactions of the Medical Society of London}, volume = {130}, number = {}, pages = {24-27}, pmid = {27501580}, issn = {0076-6011}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid27293608, year = {2013}, author = {McLeod, IM and Rummer, JL and Clark, TD and Jones, GP and McCormick, MI and Wenger, AS and Munday, PL}, title = {Climate change and the performance of larval coral reef fishes: the interaction between temperature and food availability.}, journal = {Conservation physiology}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {cot024}, pmid = {27293608}, issn = {2051-1434}, abstract = {Climate-change models predict that tropical ocean temperatures will increase by 2-3°C this century and affect plankton communities that are food for marine fish larvae. Both temperature and food supply can influence development time, growth, and metabolism of marine fishes, particularly during larval stages. However, little is known of the relative importance and potential interacting effects of ocean warming and changes to food supply on the performance of larval fishes. We tested this for larvae of the coral reef anemonefish, Amphiprion percula, in an orthogonal experiment comprising three temperatures and three feeding schedules. Temperatures were chosen to represent present-day summer averages (29.2°C) and end-of-century climate change projections of +1.5°C (30.7°C) and +3°C (32.2°C). Feeding schedules were chosen to represent a reduction in access to food (fed daily, every 2 days, or every 3 days). Overall, larvae took longer to settle at higher temperatures and with less frequent feeding, and there was a significant interaction between these factors. Time to metamorphosis was fastest in the 30.7(o)C and high food availability treatment (10.5 ± 0.2 days) and slowest in the 32.2(o)C and low food availability treatment (15.6 ± 0.5 days; i.e. 50% faster). Fish from the lower feeding regimens had a lower body condition and decreased survivorship to metamorphosis. Routine oxygen consumption rates were highest for fish raised at 32.2°C and fed every third day (162 ± 107 mg O2 kg(-1) h(-1)) and lowest for fish raised at 29.2°C and fed daily (122 ± 101 mg O2 kg(-1) h(-1); i.e. 35% lower). The elevated routine oxygen consumption rate, and therefore greater energy use at higher temperatures, may leave less energy available for growth and development, resulting in the longer time to metamorphosis. Overall, these results suggest that larval fishes will be severely impacted by climate-change scenarios that predict both elevated temperatures and reduced food supply.}, }
@article {pmid27011268, year = {2012}, author = {Harley, CD and Anderson, KM and Demes, KW and Jorve, JP and Kordas, RL and Coyle, TA and Graham, MH}, title = {EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLOBAL SEAWEED COMMUNITIES.}, journal = {Journal of phycology}, volume = {48}, number = {5}, pages = {1064-1078}, doi = {10.1111/j.1529-8817.2012.01224.x}, pmid = {27011268}, issn = {0022-3646}, abstract = {Seaweeds are ecologically important primary producers, competitors, and ecosystem engineers that play a central role in coastal habitats ranging from kelp forests to coral reefs. Although seaweeds are known to be vulnerable to physical and chemical changes in the marine environment, the impacts of ongoing and future anthropogenic climate change in seaweed-dominated ecosystems remain poorly understood. In this review, we describe the ways in which changes in the environment directly affect seaweeds in terms of their physiology, growth, reproduction, and survival. We consider the extent to which seaweed species may be able to respond to these changes via adaptation or migration. We also examine the extensive reshuffling of communities that is occurring as the ecological balance between competing species changes, and as top-down control by herbivores becomes stronger or weaker. Finally, we delve into some of the ecosystem-level responses to these changes, including changes in primary productivity, diversity, and resilience. Although there are several key areas in which ecological insight is lacking, we suggest that reasonable climate-related hypotheses can be developed and tested based on current information. By strategically prioritizing research in the areas of complex environmental variation, multiple stressor effects, evolutionary adaptation, and population, community, and ecosystem-level responses, we can rapidly build upon our current understanding of seaweed biology and climate change ecology to more effectively conserve and manage coastal ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid26316656, year = {2012}, author = {Messina, JP and Moore, NJ and DeVisser, MH and McCord, PF and Walker, ED}, title = {Climate Change and Risk Projection: Dynamic Spatial Models of Tsetse and African Trypanosomiasis in Kenya.}, journal = {Annals of the Association of American Geographers. Association of American Geographers}, volume = {102}, number = {2}, pages = {1038-1048}, pmid = {26316656}, issn = {0004-5608}, support = {R21 GM084704/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {African trypanosomiasis, otherwise known as sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in animals, is a parasitic protist passed cyclically by the tsetse fly. Despite more than a century of control and eradication efforts, the fly remains widely distributed across Africa and coextensive with other prevalent diseases. Control and planning are hampered by spatially and temporally variant vector distributions, ecologically irrelevant boundaries, and neglect. Tsetse are particularly well suited to move into previously disease-free areas under climate change scenarios, placing unprepared populations at risk. Here we present the modeling framework ATcast, which combines a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with a temporally and spatially dynamic species distribution model to predict tsetse populations over space and time. These modeled results are integrated with Kenyan population data to predict, for the period 2050 to 2059, exposure potential to tsetse and, by association, sleeping sickness and nagana across Kenya.}, }
@article {pmid26591995, year = {2011}, author = {Mboera, LE and Mayala, BK and Kweka, EJ and Mazigo, HD}, title = {Impact of climate change on human health and health systems in Tanzania: a review.}, journal = {Tanzania journal of health research}, volume = {13}, number = {5 Suppl 1}, pages = {407-426}, doi = {10.4314/thrb.v13i5.10}, pmid = {26591995}, issn = {1821-6404}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*organization &amp; administration ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Health Policy ; *Health Priorities ; Humans ; Tanzania/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) has a number of immediate and long-term impacts on the fundamental determinants of human health. A number of potential human health effects have been associated either directly or indirectly with global climate change. Vulnerability to the risks associated with CC may exacerbate ongoing socio-economic challenges. The objective of this review was to analyse the potential risk and vulnerability in the context of climate-sensitive human diseases and health system in Tanzania. Climate sensitive vector- and waterborne diseases and other health related problems and the policies on climate adaptation in Tanzania during the past 50 years are reviewed. The review has shown that a number of climate-associated infectious disease epidemics have been reported in various areas of the country; mostly being associated with increase in precipitation and temperature. Although, there is no single policy document that specifically addresses issues of CC in the country, the National Environmental Management Act of 1997 recognizes the importance of CC and calls for the government to put up measures to address the phenomenon. A number of strategies and action plans related to CC are also in place. These include the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, the National Action Programme, and the National Bio-safety Framework. The government has put in place a National Climate Change Steering Committee and the National Climate Change Technical Committee to oversee and guide the implementation of CC activities in the country. Recognizing the adverse impacts of natural disasters and calamities, the government established a Disaster Management Division under the Prime Minister's Office. Epidemic Preparedness and Response Unit of the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare is responsible for emergency preparedness, mostly disease outbreaks. However, specific climate changes associated with human health issues are poorly addressed in the MoHSW strategies and the national health research priorities. In conclusion, CC threatens to slow, halt or reverses the progress the country has made or is making to achieve its national and millennium development goals. It is therefore important that Tanzania prepares itself to appropriately address CC impact on human health. It is equally important that policy makers and other stakeholders are engaged in a process to update and adapt priorities, mobilize resources and build interdisciplinary research and implementation capacity on climate change and its mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid26486620, year = {2011}, author = {Seo, SN and McCarl, B}, title = {Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia.}, journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI}, volume = {1}, number = {4}, pages = {343-365}, pmid = {26486620}, issn = {2076-2615}, abstract = {This paper examines the vulnerabilities of major livestock species raised in Australia to climate change using the regional livestock profile of Australia of around 1,400 regions. The number of each species owned, the number of each species sold, and the aggregate livestock revenue across all species are examined. The four major species analyzed are sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs. The analysis also includes livestock products such as wool and milk. These livestock production statistics are regressed against climate, geophysical, market and household characteristics. In contrast to crop studies, the analysis finds that livestock species are resilient to a hotter and more arid climate. Under the CSIRO climate scenario in which temperature increases by 3.4 °C, livestock revenue per farm increases significantly while the number of each species owned increases by large percentages except for dairy cattle. The precipitation reduction by about 8% in 2060 also increases the numbers of livestock species per farm household. Under both UKMO and GISS scenarios, livestock revenue is expected to increase by around 47% while the livestock population increases by large percentage. Livestock management may play a key role in adapting to a hot and arid climate in Australia. However, critical values of the climatic variables for the species analyzed in this paper are not obvious from the regional data.}, }
@article {pmid27110216, year = {2010}, author = {Mavrogianni, A and Mumovic, D}, title = {On the Use of Windcatchers in Schools: Climate Change, Occupancy Patterns, and Adaptation Strategies.}, journal = {Indoor + built environment : the journal of the International Society of the Built Environment}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {340-354}, pmid = {27110216}, issn = {1420-326X}, abstract = {Advanced naturally ventilated systems based on integration of basic natural ventilation strategies such as cross-ventilation and stack effect have been considered to be a key element of sustainable design. In this respect, there is a pressing need to explore the potential of such systems to achieve the recommended occupant comfort targets throughout their lifetime without relying on mechanical means. This study focuses on use of a windcatcher system in typical classrooms which are usually characterized by high and intermittent internal heat gains. The aims of this paper are 3-fold. First, to describe a series of field measurements that investigated the ventilation rates, indoor air quality, and thermal comfort in a newly constructed school located at an urban site in London. Secondly, to investigate the effect of changing climate and occupancy patterns on thermal comfort in selected classrooms, while taking into account adaptive potential of this specific ventilation strategy. Thirdly, to assess performance of the ventilation system using the newly introduced performance-based ventilation standards for school buildings. The results suggest that satisfactory occupant comfort levels could be achieved until the 2050s by a combination of advanced ventilation control settings and informed occupant behavior.}, }
@article {pmid26027580, year = {2015}, author = {Mesa, G and Ortiz, P and Gorry, C}, title = {Approaches to Climate Change &amp; Health in Cuba: Guillermo Mesa MD MPhil, Director, Disasters &amp; Health, National School of Public Health. Paulo Ortiz MS PhD, Senior Researcher, Climate Center, Cuban Meteorology Institute.}, journal = {MEDICC review}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {6-9}, doi = {10.37757/MR2015.V17.N2.3}, pmid = {26027580}, issn = {1527-3172}, mesh = {Climate Change/economics/*mortality ; Communicable Disease Control/*methods ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Cuba/epidemiology ; Disaster Planning/economics/*methods/organization &amp; administration ; Disasters/economics/prevention &amp; control ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/*methods ; Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Forecasting ; *Health Priorities ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The US National Institutes of Health predict climate change will cause an additional 250,000 deaths between 2030 and 2050, with damages to health costing US$2-$4 billion by 2030. Although much debate still surrounds climate change, island ecosystems-such as Cuba's-in the developing world are arguably among the most vulnerable contexts in which to confront climate variability. Beginning in the 1990s, Cuba launched research to develop the evidence base, set policy priorities, and design mitigation and adaptation actions specifically to address climate change and its effects on health. Two researchers at the forefront of this interdisciplinary, intersectoral effort are epidemiologist Dr Guillermo Mesa, who directed design and implementation of the nationwide strategy for disaster risk reduction in the Cuban public health system as founding director of the Latin American Center for Disaster Medicine (CLAMED) and now heads the Disasters and Health department at the National School of Public Health; and Dr Paulo Ortiz, a biostatistician and economist at the Cuban Meteorology Institute's Climate Center (CENCLIM), who leads the research on Cuba's Climate and Health project and is advisor on climate change and health for the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).}, }
@article {pmid26027579, year = {2015}, author = {, }, title = {Facing down climate change: now or never.}, journal = {MEDICC review}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {3}, doi = {10.37757/MR2015.V17.N2.1}, pmid = {26027579}, issn = {1527-3172}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/*methods ; Cuba ; Developing Countries ; Health Policy ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Politics ; *Social Determinants of Health ; }, }
@article {pmid26026414, year = {2015}, author = {García de León, D and García-Mozo, H and Galán, C and Alcázar, P and Lima, M and González-Andújar, JL}, title = {Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {530-531}, number = {}, pages = {103-109}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.104}, pmid = {26026414}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/analysis/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Allergens/*analysis ; Cities ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; *Pollen ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Pollen allergies are the most common form of respiratory allergic disease in Europe. Most studies have emphasized the role of environmental processes, as the drivers of airborne pollen fluctuations, implicitly considering pollen production as a random walk. This work shows that internal self-regulating processes of the plants (negative feedback) should be included in pollen dynamic systems in order to give a better explanation of the observed pollen temporal patterns. This article proposes a novel methodological approach based on dynamic systems to investigate the interaction between feedback structure of plant populations and climate in shaping long-term airborne Poaceae pollen fluctuations and to quantify the effects of climate change on future airborne pollen concentrations. Long-term historical airborne Poaceae pollen data (30 years) from Cordoba city (Southern Spain) were analyzed. A set of models, combining feedback structure, temperature and actual evapotranspiration effects on airborne Poaceae pollen were built and compared, using a model selection approach. Our results highlight the importance of first-order negative feedback and mean annual maximum temperature in driving airborne Poaceae pollen dynamics. The best model was used to predict the effects of climate change under two standardized scenarios representing contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. Our results predict an increase in pollen levels in southern Spain by 2070 ranging from 28.5% to 44.3%. The findings from this study provide a greater understanding of airborne pollen dynamics and how climate change might impact the future evolution of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations and thus the future evolution of related pollen allergies.}, }
@article {pmid26025530, year = {2015}, author = {Martínez-Lüscher, J and Morales, F and Sánchez-Díaz, M and Delrot, S and Aguirreolea, J and Gomès, E and Pascual, I}, title = {Climate change conditions (elevated CO2 and temperature) and UV-B radiation affect grapevine (Vitis vinifera cv. Tempranillo) leaf carbon assimilation, altering fruit ripening rates.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {236}, number = {}, pages = {168-176}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2015.04.001}, pmid = {26025530}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Fruit/growth &amp; development ; Plant Leaves/metabolism ; Temperature ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; Vitis/*physiology/radiation effects ; }, abstract = {The increase in grape berry ripening rates associated to climate change is a growing concern for wine makers as it rises the alcohol content of the wine. The present work studied the combined effects of elevated CO2, temperature and UV-B radiation on leaf physiology and berry ripening rates. Three doses of UV-B: 0, 5.98, 9.66 kJm(-2)d(-1), and two CO2-temperature regimes: ambient CO2-24/14 °C (day/night) (current situation) and 700 ppm CO2-28/18 °C (climate change) were imposed to grapevine fruit-bearing cuttings from fruit set to maturity under greenhouse-controlled conditions. Photosynthetic performance was always higher under climate change conditions. High levels of UV-B radiation down regulated carbon fixation rates. A transient recovery took place at veraison, through the accumulation of flavonols and the increase of antioxidant enzyme activities. Interacting effects between UV-B and CO2-temperature regimes were observed for the lipid peroxidation, which suggests that UV-B may contribute to palliate the signs of oxidative damage induced under elevated CO2-temperature. Photosynthetic and ripening rates were correlated. Thereby, the hastening effect of climate change conditions on ripening, associated to higher rates of carbon fixation, was attenuated by UV-B radiation.}, }
@article {pmid26025268, year = {2015}, author = {Monaghan, AJ and Moore, SM and Sampson, KM and Beard, CB and Eisen, RJ}, title = {Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States.}, journal = {Ticks and tick-borne diseases}, volume = {6}, number = {5}, pages = {615-622}, pmid = {26025268}, issn = {1877-9603}, support = {CC999999//Intramural CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Lyme Disease/*diagnosis/*epidemiology ; Population Surveillance ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (p<0.05), and 0.7-1.9 weeks earlier for 2065-2080 (p<0.01), with the largest shifts for scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The more southerly mid-Atlantic States exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions.}, }
@article {pmid26023264, year = {2015}, author = {Padhy, SK and Sarkar, S and Panigrahi, M and Paul, S}, title = {Mental health effects of climate change.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {3-7}, pmid = {26023264}, issn = {0973-2284}, abstract = {We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more number of farmer suicides. Droughts otherwise can lead to impaired mental health and stress. Increased frequency of disasters with climate change can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder, adjustment disorder, and depression. Changes in climate and global warming may require population to migrate, which can lead to acculturation stress. It can also lead to increased rates of physical illnesses, which secondarily would be associated with psychological distress. The possible effects of mitigation measures on mental health are also discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of what can and should be done to tackle the expected mental health issues consequent to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid26023112, year = {2015}, author = {Larson, C}, title = {Agricultural research. Reading the tea leaves for effects of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {348}, number = {6238}, pages = {953-954}, doi = {10.1126/science.348.6238.953}, pmid = {26023112}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Camellia sinensis/*chemistry/metabolism ; Catechin/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Plant Leaves/*chemistry/metabolism ; Secondary Metabolism ; Tea/chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid26022332, year = {2015}, author = {Blenckner, T and Österblom, H and Larsson, P and Andersson, A and Elmgren, R}, title = {Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44 Suppl 3}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {507-515}, pmid = {26022332}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Eutrophication ; Seawater/analysis ; }, abstract = {Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as the generally agreed strategy for managing ecosystems, with humans as integral parts of the managed system. Human activities have substantial effects on marine ecosystems, through overfishing, eutrophication, toxic pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. It is important to advance the scientific knowledge of the cumulative, integrative, and interacting effects of these diverse activities, to support effective implementation of EBM. Based on contributions to this special issue of AMBIO, we synthesize the scientific findings into four components: pollution and legal frameworks, ecosystem processes, scale-dependent effects, and innovative tools and methods. We conclude with challenges for the future, and identify the next steps needed for successful implementation of EBM in general and specifically for the Baltic Sea.}, }
@article {pmid26022321, year = {2015}, author = {Bring, A and Rogberg, P and Destouni, G}, title = {Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44 Suppl 3}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {381-391}, pmid = {26022321}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes either increase loads, making the target more difficult to reach, or decrease them, leading instead to a full achievement of the target. The impact of variability in climate projections varies with the size of the reduction target and is larger for countries with more limited commitments. In the end, a number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.}, }
@article {pmid26022318, year = {2015}, author = {Andersson, A and Meier, HE and Ripszam, M and Rowe, O and Wikner, J and Haglund, P and Eilola, K and Legrand, C and Figueroa, D and Paczkowska, J and Lindehoff, E and Tysklind, M and Elmgren, R}, title = {Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44 Suppl 3}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {345-356}, pmid = {26022318}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Phytoplankton ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.}, }
@article {pmid26022316, year = {2015}, author = {Bonsdorff, E and Andersson, A and Elmgren, R}, title = {Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Integrating social and ecological perspectives.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44 Suppl 3}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {333-334}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-015-0669-1}, pmid = {26022316}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid26020011, year = {2015}, author = {Garner, KL and Chang, MY and Fulda, MT and Berlin, JA and Freed, RE and Soo-Hoo, MM and Revell, DL and Ikegami, M and Flint, LE and Flint, AL and Kendall, BE}, title = {Impacts of sea level rise and climate change on coastal plant species in the central California coast.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {e958}, pmid = {26020011}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Local increases in sea level caused by global climate change pose a significant threat to the persistence of many coastal plant species through exacerbating inundation, flooding, and erosion. In addition to sea level rise (SLR), climate changes in the form of air temperature and precipitation regimes will also alter habitats of coastal plant species. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats through species distribution models (SDMs), none have incorporated the threat of exposure to SLR. We developed a model that quantified the effect of both SLR and climate change on habitat for 88 rare coastal plant species in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, California, USA (an area of 23,948 km(2)). Our SLR model projects that by the year 2100, 60 of the 88 species will be threatened by SLR. We found that the probability of being threatened by SLR strongly correlates with a species' area, elevation, and distance from the coast, and that 10 species could lose their entire current habitat in the study region. We modeled the habitat suitability of these 10 species under future climate using a species distribution model (SDM). Our SDM projects that 4 of the 10 species will lose all suitable current habitats in the region as a result of climate change. While SLR accounts for up to 9.2 km(2) loss in habitat, climate change accounts for habitat suitability changes ranging from a loss of 1,439 km(2) for one species to a gain of 9,795 km(2) for another species. For three species, SLR is projected to reduce future suitable area by as much as 28% of total area. This suggests that while SLR poses a higher risk, climate changes in precipitation and air temperature represents a lesser known but potentially larger risk and a small cumulative effect from both.}, }
@article {pmid26017785, year = {2015}, author = {Lee, JR and Maggini, R and Taylor, MF and Fuller, RA}, title = {Mapping the Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability for Australia's Threatened Species.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {e0124766}, pmid = {26017785}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Amphibians ; Animals ; Australia ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Mammals ; }, abstract = {Effective conservation management for climate adaptation rests on understanding the factors driving species' vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner so as to direct on-ground action. However, there have been only few attempts to map the spatial distribution of the factors driving vulnerability to climate change. Here we conduct a species-level assessment of climate change vulnerability for a sample of Australia's threatened species and map the distribution of species affected by each factor driving climate change vulnerability across the continent. Almost half of the threatened species assessed were considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: amphibians being the most vulnerable group, followed by plants, reptiles, mammals and birds. Species with more restricted distributions were more likely to show high climate change vulnerability than widespread species. The main factors driving climate change vulnerability were low genetic variation, dependence on a particular disturbance regime and reliance on a particular moisture regime or habitat. The geographic distribution of the species impacted by each driver varies markedly across the continent, for example species impacted by low genetic variation are prevalent across the human-dominated south-east of the country, while reliance on particular moisture regimes is prevalent across northern Australia. Our results show that actions to address climate adaptation will need to be spatially appropriate, and that in some regions a complex suite of factors driving climate change vulnerability will need to be addressed. Taxonomic and geographic variation in the factors driving climate change vulnerability highlights an urgent need for a spatial prioritisation of climate adaptation actions for threatened species.}, }
@article {pmid26015076, year = {2017}, author = {Ilacqua, V and Dawson, J and Breen, M and Singer, S and Berg, A}, title = {Effects of climate change on residential infiltration and air pollution exposure.}, journal = {Journal of exposure science &amp; environmental epidemiology}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {16-23}, pmid = {26015076}, issn = {1559-064X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; *Air Pollution/analysis ; Air Pollution, Indoor ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; Environmental Exposure/*analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Housing ; Humans ; Humidity ; Models, Statistical ; Seasons ; United States ; *Ventilation ; }, abstract = {Air exchange through infiltration is driven partly by indoor/outdoor temperature differences, and as climate change increases ambient temperatures, such differences could vary considerably even with small ambient temperature increments, altering patterns of exposures to both indoor and outdoor pollutants. We calculated changes in air fluxes through infiltration for prototypical detached homes in nine metropolitan areas in the United States (Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, and Seattle) from 1970-2000 to 2040-2070. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory model of infiltration was used in combination with climate data from eight regionally downscaled climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Averaged over all study locations, seasons, and climate models, air exchange through infiltration would decrease by ~5%. Localized increased infiltration is expected during the summer months, up to 20-30%. Seasonal and daily variability in infiltration are also expected to increase, particularly during the summer months. Diminished infiltration in future climate scenarios may be expected to increase exposure to indoor sources of air pollution, unless these ventilation reductions are otherwise compensated. Exposure to ambient air pollution, conversely, could be mitigated by lower infiltration, although peak exposure increases during summer months should be considered, as well as other mechanisms.}, }
@article {pmid26014700, year = {2015}, author = {Geng, J and Guo, WL and Zhang, XL}, title = {[Prevalence of respiratory syncytial virus infection in hospitalized children at a children's hospital and effects of climate change on the prevalence in Suzhou, China].}, journal = {Zhongguo dang dai er ke za zhi = Chinese journal of contemporary pediatrics}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {482-486}, pmid = {26014700}, issn = {1008-8830}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; Child, Hospitalized ; Child, Preschool ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Prevalence ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in hospitalized children and the relationship between the prevalence and the climate change in Suzhou, China.<br><br>METHODS: A total of 42&#x2009;664 nasopharyngeal secretions from hospitalized children with acute respiratory infection at the Suzhou Children's Hospital were screened for RSV antigens using direct immunofluorescence. Monthly meteorological data (mean monthly air temperature, monthly relative humidity, monthly rainfall, total monthly sunshine duration, and mean monthly wind velocity) in Suzhou between 2001 and 2011 were collected. The correlations between RSV detection rate and climatic factors were evaluated using correlation and stepwise regression analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: The annual RSV infection rate in hospitalized children with respiratory infection in the Suzhou Children's Hospital varied between 11.85% and 27.30% from 2001 to 2011. In the 9 epidemic seasons, each spanning from November to April of the next year, from 2001 to 2010, the RSV detection rates were 40.75%, 22.72%, 39.93%, 27.37%, 42.71%, 21.28%, 38.57%, 19.86%, and 29.73%, respectively; there were significant differences in the detection rate between the epidemic seasons. The monthly RSV detection rate was negatively correlated with mean monthly air temperature, total monthly sunshine duration, monthly rainfall, monthly relative humidity, and mean monthly wind velocity (P<0.05). Stepwise regression analysis showed that mean monthly air temperature fitted into a linear model (R(2)=0.64, P<0.01).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: From 2001 to 2011, RSV infection in Suzhou was predominantly prevalent between November and April of the next year. As a whole, the infection rate of RSV reached a peak every other year. Air temperature played an important role in the epidemics of RSV infection in Suzhou.}, }
@article {pmid26011613, year = {2015}, author = {Huttunen, I and Lehtonen, H and Huttunen, M and Piirainen, V and Korppoo, M and Veijalainen, N and Viitasalo, M and Vehviläinen, B}, title = {Effects of climate change and agricultural adaptation on nutrient loading from Finnish catchments to the Baltic Sea.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {529}, number = {}, pages = {168-181}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.055}, pmid = {26011613}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to increase annual and especially winter runoff, shorten the snow cover period and therefore increase both nutrient leaching from agricultural areas and natural background leaching in the Baltic Sea catchment. We estimated the effects of climate change and possible future scenarios of agricultural changes on the phosphorus and nitrogen loading to the Baltic Sea from Finnish catchments. In the agricultural scenarios we assumed that the prices of agricultural products are among the primary drivers in the adaptation to climate change, as they affect the level of fertilization and the production intensity and volume and, hence, the modeled changes in gross nutrient loading from agricultural land. Optimal adaptation may increase production while supporting appropriate use of fertilization, resulting in low nutrient balance in the fields. However, a less optimal adaptation may result in higher nutrient balance and increased leaching. The changes in nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea were predicted by taking into account the agricultural scenarios in a nutrient loading model for Finnish catchments (VEMALA), which simulates runoff, nutrient processes, leaching and transport on land, in rivers and in lakes. We thus integrated the effects of climate change in the agricultural sector, nutrient loading in fields, natural background loading, hydrology and nutrient transport and retention processes.}, }
@article {pmid26011182, year = {2015}, author = {Austin, KG and Kasibhatla, PS and Urban, DL and Stolle, F and Vincent, J}, title = {Reconciling oil palm expansion and climate change mitigation in Kalimantan, Indonesia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {e0127963}, pmid = {26011182}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Arecaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; Indonesia ; Logistic Models ; Palm Oil ; Plant Oils/*chemistry ; Propensity Score ; }, abstract = {Our society faces the pressing challenge of increasing agricultural production while minimizing negative consequences on ecosystems and the global climate. Indonesia, which has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation while doubling production of several major agricultural commodities, exemplifies this challenge. Here we focus on palm oil, the world's most abundant vegetable oil and a commodity that has contributed significantly to Indonesia's economy. Most oil palm expansion in the country has occurred at the expense of forests, resulting in significant GHG emissions. We examine the extent to which land management policies can resolve the apparently conflicting goals of oil palm expansion and GHG mitigation in Kalimantan, a major oil palm growing region of Indonesia. Using a logistic regression model to predict the locations of new oil palm between 2010 and 2020 we evaluate the impacts of six alternative policy scenarios on future emissions. We estimate net emissions of 128.4-211.4 MtCO2 yr(-1) under business as usual expansion of oil palm plantations. The impact of diverting new plantations to low carbon stock land depends on the design of the policy. We estimate that emissions can be reduced by 9-10% by extending the current moratorium on new concessions in primary forests and peat lands, 35% by limiting expansion on all peat and forestlands, 46% by limiting expansion to areas with moderate carbon stocks, and 55-60% by limiting expansion to areas with low carbon stocks. Our results suggest that these policies would reduce oil palm profits only moderately but would vary greatly in terms of cost-effectiveness of emissions reductions. We conclude that a carefully designed and implemented oil palm expansion plan can contribute significantly towards Indonesia's national emissions mitigation goal, while allowing oil palm area to double.}, }
@article {pmid26010960, year = {2015}, author = {Pashley, CH and Satchwell, J and Edwards, RE}, title = {Ragweed pollen: is climate change creating a new aeroallergen problem in the UK?.}, journal = {Clinical and experimental allergy : journal of the British Society for Allergy and Clinical Immunology}, volume = {45}, number = {7}, pages = {1262-1265}, doi = {10.1111/cea.12572}, pmid = {26010960}, issn = {1365-2222}, mesh = {Allergens/*immunology ; Antigens, Plant/*immunology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Plant Extracts/*immunology ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*epidemiology/*immunology ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid26004566, year = {2015}, author = {Ozturk, I}, title = {Measuring the impact of energy consumption and air quality indicators on climate change: evidence from the panel of UNFCC classified countries.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {22}, number = {20}, pages = {15459-15468}, pmid = {26004566}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Developed Countries ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Methane/analysis ; Models, Econometric ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {This study examines the relationship between energy consumption, air pollution, and climate change in the panel of six economically diversified countries classified by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) as industrialized countries and economies in transition nations by using the panel econometric techniques for the period of 1990-2012. The results of pooled least square regression show that both the energy consumption and air quality indicators have a positive and significant relationship with the climate change, i.e., 1 % increase in energy consumption increases greenhouse gas emissions by 0.124 %, carbon dioxide emissions increase by 0.652 %, methane emissions increase by 0.123 %, and nitrous oxide emissions increase greenhouse gas emissions by 0.105 % age points. The results of fixed-effect regression and random-effect regression confirmed the deteriorating impact of air quality indicators on climate change; however, the results failed to show any significant association between energy consumption and climate change when absorbing country-specific shocks and time-variant shocks during the study time period.}, }
@article {pmid26002367, year = {2015}, author = {Zhang, C and Lai, S and Gao, X and Xu, L}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {22}, number = {19}, pages = {14971-14982}, pmid = {26002367}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Seasons ; Statistics, Nonparametric ; Water/*chemistry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; *Water Quality ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {To study the potential effects of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China, the field data analysis method is applied to data collected over a given monitoring period. Nine water quality parameters (water temperature, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen) and three climate indicators for 20 years (1992-2011) are considered. The annual trends exhibit significant trends with respect to certain water quality and climate parameters. Five parameters exhibit significant seasonality differences in the monthly means between the two decades (1992-2001 and 2002-2011) of the monitoring period. Non-parametric regression of the statistical analyses is performed to explore potential key climate drivers of water quality in the reservoir. The results indicate that seasonal changes in temperature and rainfall may have positive impacts on water quality. However, an extremely cold spring and high wind speed are likely to affect the self-stabilising equilibrium states of the reservoir, which requires attention in the future. The results suggest that land use changes have important impact on nitrogen load. This study provides useful information regarding the potential effects of climate change on water quality in developing countries.}, }
@article {pmid25999498, year = {2015}, author = {Xue, B}, title = {Outside the tower. Honing the climate change message.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {348}, number = {6237}, pages = {872}, doi = {10.1126/science.348.6237.872-a}, pmid = {25999498}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {China ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid25997478, year = {2015}, author = {De Blois, J and Kjellstrom, T and Agewall, S and Ezekowitz, JA and Armstrong, PW and Atar, D}, title = {The Effects of Climate Change on Cardiac Health.}, journal = {Cardiology}, volume = {131}, number = {4}, pages = {209-217}, doi = {10.1159/000398787}, pmid = {25997478}, issn = {1421-9751}, mesh = {Aged ; Cardiovascular Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Cause of Death ; *Climate Change ; Heat Stroke/*mortality ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The earth's climate is changing and increasing ambient heat levels are emerging in large areas of the world. An important cause of this change is the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. Climate changes have a variety of negative effects on health, including cardiac health. People with pre-existing medical conditions such as cardiovascular disease (including heart failure), people carrying out physically demanding work and the elderly are particularly vulnerable. This review evaluates the evidence base for the cardiac health consequences of climate conditions, with particular reference to increasing heat exposure, and it also explores the potential further implications.}, }
@article {pmid25996591, year = {2015}, author = {Morgan, FJ and Daigneault, AJ}, title = {Estimating impacts of climate change policy on land use: an agent-based modelling approach.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {e0127317}, pmid = {25996591}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; New Zealand ; *Policy ; }, abstract = {Agriculture is important to New Zealand's economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer's decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.}, }
@article {pmid25995129, year = {2015}, author = {Campbell, S}, title = {Let's not forget climate change in the food insecurity conversation: why the homeless are most vulnerable.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {161-162}, doi = {10.1071/HE14090}, pmid = {25995129}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Female ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Hunger ; Male ; *Nutritional Status ; Poverty/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Urban Population/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid25994676, year = {2015}, author = {Gunderson, AR and Stillman, JH}, title = {Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {282}, number = {1808}, pages = {20150401}, pmid = {25994676}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Crustacea/*physiology ; Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Insecta/*physiology ; Vertebrates/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though the potential for plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this risk is largely unknown. In part, this shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity. To address this critical issue, we test leading hypotheses for broad-scale variation in ectotherm tolerance plasticity using a dataset that includes vertebrate and invertebrate taxa from terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. Contrary to expectation, plasticity in heat tolerance was unrelated to latitude or thermal seasonality. However, plasticity in cold tolerance is associated with thermal seasonality in some habitat types. In addition, aquatic taxa have approximately twice the plasticity of terrestrial taxa. Based on the observed patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity, we propose that limited potential for behavioural plasticity (i.e. behavioural thermoregulation) favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the 'Bogert effect'. Finally, we find that all ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal tolerance and demonstrate that overheating risk will be minimally reduced by acclimation in even the most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid25994223, year = {2015}, author = {Valolahti, H and Kivimäenpää, M and Faubert, P and Michelsen, A and Rinnan, R}, title = {Climate change-induced vegetation change as a driver of increased subarctic biogenic volatile organic compound emissions.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {9}, pages = {3478-3488}, pmid = {25994223}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Betula/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry ; Global Warming ; Plant Leaves/*chemistry ; Seasons ; Sweden ; Volatile Organic Compounds/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have been earlier shown to be highly temperature sensitive in subarctic ecosystems. As these ecosystems experience rapidly advancing pronounced climate warming, we aimed to investigate how warming affects the BVOC emissions in the long term (up to 13 treatment years). We also aimed to assess whether the increased litterfall resulting from the vegetation changes in the warming subarctic would affect the emissions. The study was conducted in a field experiment with factorial open-top chamber warming and annual litter addition treatments on subarctic heath in Abisko, northern Sweden. After 11 and 13 treatment years, BVOCs were sampled from plant communities in the experimental plots using a push-pull enclosure technique and collection into adsorbent cartridges during the growing season and analyzed with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Plant species coverage in the plots was analyzed by the point intercept method. Warming by 2 °C caused a 2-fold increase in monoterpene and 5-fold increase in sesquiterpene emissions, averaged over all measurements. When the momentary effect of temperature was diminished by standardization of emissions to a fixed temperature, warming still had a significant effect suggesting that emissions were also indirectly increased. This indirect increase appeared to result from increased plant coverage and changes in vegetation composition. The litter addition treatment also caused significant increases in the emission rates of some BVOC groups, especially when combined with warming. The combined treatment had both the largest vegetation changes and the highest BVOC emissions. The increased emissions under litter addition were probably a result of a changed vegetation composition due to alleviated nutrient limitation and stimulated microbial production of BVOCs. We suggest that the changes in the subarctic vegetation composition induced by climate warming will be the major factor indirectly affecting the BVOC emission potentials and composition.}, }
@article {pmid25993360, year = {2015}, author = {Godoy, MD and de Lacerda, LD}, title = {Mangroves Response to Climate Change: A Review of Recent Findings on Mangrove Extension and Distribution.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {87}, number = {2}, pages = {651-667}, doi = {10.1590/0001-3765201520150055}, pmid = {25993360}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Population Dynamics ; Rhizophoraceae/*growth &amp; development ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Mangroves function as a natural coastline protection for erosion and inundation, providing important environmental services. Due to their geographical distribution at the continent-ocean interface, the mangrove habitat may suffer heavy impacts from global climate change, maximized by local human activities occurring in a given coastal region. This review analyzed the literature published over the last 25 years, on the documented response of mangroves to environmental change caused by global climate change, taking into consideration 104 case studies and predictive modeling, worldwide. Most studies appeared after the year 2000, as a response to the 1997 IPCC report. Although many reports showed that the world's mangrove area is decreasing due to direct anthropogenic pressure, several others, however, showed that in a variety of habitats mangroves are expanding as a response to global climate change. Worldwide, pole ward migration is extending the latitudinal limits of mangroves due to warmer winters and decreasing the frequency of extreme low temperatures, whereas in low-lying coastal plains, mangroves are migrating landward due to sea level rise, as demonstrated for the NE Brazilian coast. Taking into consideration climate change alone, mangroves in most areas will display a positive response. In some areas however, such as low-lying oceanic islands, such as in the Pacific and the Caribbean, and constrained coastlines, such as the SE Brazilian coast, mangroves will most probably not survive.}, }
@article {pmid25992609, year = {2015}, author = {Stewart, JR and Jacobi, RM}, title = {The long term response of birds to climate change: new results from a cold stage avifauna in northern England.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {e0122617}, pmid = {25992609}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; Birds/*classification/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; England ; Fossils ; Paleontology ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {The early MIS 3 (55-40 Kyr BP associated with Middle Palaeolithic archaeology) bird remains from Pin Hole, Creswell Crags, Derbyshire, England are analysed in the context of the new dating of the site's stratigraphy. The analysis is restricted to the material from the early MIS 3 level of the cave because the upper fauna is now known to include Holocene material as well as that from the Late Glacial. The results of the analysis confirm the presence of the taxa, possibly unexpected for a Late Pleistocene glacial deposit including records such as Alpine swift, demoiselle crane and long-legged buzzard with southern and/or eastern distributions today. These taxa are accompanied by more expected ones such as willow ptarmigan /red grouse and rock ptarmigan living today in northern and montane areas. Finally, there are temperate taxa normally requiring trees for nesting such as wood pigeon and grey heron. Therefore, the result of the analysis is that the avifauna of early MIS 3 in England included taxa whose ranges today do not overlap making it a non-analogue community similar to the many steppe-tundra mammalian faunas of the time. The inclusion of more temperate and woodland taxa is discussed in the light that parts of northern Europe may have acted as cryptic northern refugia for some such taxa during the last glacial. These records showing former ranges of taxa are considered in the light of modern phylogeographic studies as these often assume former ranges without considering the fossil record of those taxa. In addition to the anomalous combination of taxa during MIS 3 living in Derbyshire, the individuals of a number of the taxa are different in size and shape to members of the species today probably due to the high carrying capacity of the steppe-tundra.}, }
@article {pmid25990561, year = {2015}, author = {Lin, II and Chan, JC}, title = {Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {7182}, pmid = {25990561}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ∼ 35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition 'worsened' at the same time. The 'worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the 'better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.}, }
@article {pmid25989371, year = {2015}, author = {Liang, Y and Jiang, Y and Wang, F and Wen, C and Deng, Y and Xue, K and Qin, Y and Yang, Y and Wu, L and Zhou, J and Sun, B}, title = {Long-term soil transplant simulating climate change with latitude significantly alters microbial temporal turnover.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {2561-2572}, pmid = {25989371}, issn = {1751-7370}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Bacteria/classification/genetics/growth &amp; development/*isolation &amp; purification ; Biodiversity ; China ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; Soil/chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {To understand soil microbial community stability and temporal turnover in response to climate change, a long-term soil transplant experiment was conducted in three agricultural experiment stations over large transects from a warm temperate zone (Fengqiu station in central China) to a subtropical zone (Yingtan station in southern China) and a cold temperate zone (Hailun station in northern China). Annual soil samples were collected from these three stations from 2005 to 2011, and microbial communities were analyzed by sequencing microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons using Illumina MiSeq technology. Our results revealed a distinctly differential pattern of microbial communities in both northward and southward transplantations, along with an increase in microbial richness with climate cooling and a corresponding decrease with climate warming. The microbial succession rate was estimated by the slope (w value) of linear regression of a log-transformed microbial community similarity with time (time-decay relationship). Compared with the low turnover rate of microbial communities in situ (w=0.046, P<0.001), the succession rate at the community level was significantly higher in the northward transplant (w=0.058, P<0.001) and highest in the southward transplant (w=0.094, P<0.001). Climate warming lead to a faster succession rate of microbial communities as well as lower species richness and compositional changes compared with in situ and climate cooling, which may be related to the high metabolic rates and intense competition under higher temperature. This study provides new insights into the impacts of climate change on the fundamental temporal scaling of soil microbial communities and microbial phylogenetic biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid25988872, year = {2015}, author = {Fensham, RJ and Fraser, J and MacDermott, HJ and Firn, J}, title = {Dominant tree species are at risk from exaggerated drought under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {3777-3785}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12981}, pmid = {25988872}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Forests ; Queensland ; Species Specificity ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Predicting the consequences of climate change on forest systems is difficult because trees may display species-specific responses to exaggerated droughts that may not be reflected by the climatic envelope of their geographic range. Furthermore, few studies have examined the postdrought recovery potential of drought-susceptible tree species. This study develops a robust ranking of the drought susceptibility of 21 tree species based on their mortality after two droughts (1990s and 2000s) in the savanna of north-eastern Australia. Drought-induced mortality was positively related to species dominance, negatively related to the ratio of postdrought seedlings to adults and had no relationship to the magnitude of extreme drought within the species current geographic ranges. These results suggest that predicting the consequences of exaggerated drought on species' geographic ranges is difficult, but that dominant species like Eucalyptus with relatively slow rates of population recovery and dispersal are the most susceptible. The implications for savanna ecosystems are lower tree densities and basal area.}, }
@article {pmid25987843, year = {2015}, author = {Rich, AL and Patel, JT}, title = {Carbon Disulfide (CS2) Mechanisms in Formation of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Formation from Unconventional Shale Gas Extraction and Processing Operations and Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health insights}, volume = {9}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {35-39}, pmid = {25987843}, issn = {1178-6302}, abstract = {Carbon disulfide (CS2) has been historically associated with the production of rayon, cellophane, and carbon tetrachloride. This study identifies multiple mechanisms by which CS2 contributes to the formation of CO2 in the atmosphere. CS2 and other associated sulfide compounds were found by this study to be present in emissions from unconventional shale gas extraction and processing (E&amp;P) operations. The breakdown products of CS2; carbonyl sulfide (COS), carbon monoxide (CO), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are indirect greenhouse gases (GHGs) that contribute to CO2 levels in the atmosphere. The heat-trapping nature of CO2 has been found to increase the surface temperature, resulting in regional and global climate change. The purpose of this study is to identify five mechanisms by which CS2 and the breakdown products of CS2 contribute to atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The five mechanisms of CO2 formation are as follows: Chemical Interaction of CS2 and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) present in natural gas at high temperatures, resulting in CO2 formation;Combustion of CS2 in the presence of oxygen producing SO2 and CO2;Photolysis of CS2 leading to the formation of COS, CO, and SO2, which are indirect contributors to CO2 formation;One-step hydrolysis of CS2, producing reactive intermediates and ultimately forming H2S and CO2;Two-step hydrolysis of CS2 forming the reactive COS intermediate that reacts with an additional water molecule, ultimately forming H2S and CO2. CS2 and COS additionally are implicated in the formation of SO2 in the stratosphere and/or troposphere. SO2 is an indirect contributor to CO2 formation and is implicated in global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25985678, year = {2015}, author = {Huang, ZG and Wang, XL and Xiao, Y and Yang, F and Wang, CX}, title = {[Effect of climate change on rice irrigation water requirement in Songnen Plain, Northeast China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {260-268}, pmid = {25985678}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Agricultural Irrigation ; China ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Oryza/*physiology ; Water ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Based on meteorological data from China national weather stations and climate scenario grid data through regional climate model provided by National Climate Center, rice water requirement was calculated by using McCloud model and Penman-Monteith model combined with crop coefficient approach. Then the rice irrigation water requirement was estimated by water balance model, and the changes of rice water requirement were analyzed. The results indicated that either in historical period or in climate scenario, rice irrigation water requirement contour lines during the whole growth period and Lmid period decreased along southwest to northeast, and the same irrigation water requirement contour line moved north with decade alternation. Rice irrigation water requirement during the whole growth period increased fluctuantly with decade alternation at 44.2 mm . 10 a-1 in historical period and 19.9 mm . 10 a-1 in climate scenario. The increase in rice irrigation water requirement during the Lmid period with decade alternation was significant in historical period, but not significant in climate scenario. Contribution rate of climate change to rice irrigation water requirement would be fluctuantly increased with decade alternation in climate scenario. Compared with 1970s, contribution rates of climate change to rice irrigation water requirement were 23.6% in 2000s and 34.4% in 2040s, which increased 14.8 x 10(8) m3 irrigation water in 2000s and would increase 21.2 x 10(8) m3 irrigation water in 2040s.}, }
@article {pmid25985674, year = {2015}, author = {Ma, YP and Sun, LL and E, YH and Wu, W}, title = {[Predicting the impact of climate change in the next 40 years on the yield of maize in China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {224-232}, pmid = {25985674}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; Reproducibility of Results ; Temperature ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Climate change will significantly affect agricultural production in China. The combination of the integral regression model and the latest climate projection may well assess the impact of future climate change on crop yield. In this paper, the correlation model of maize yield and meteorological factors was firstly established for different provinces in China by using the integral regression method, then the impact of climate change in the next 40 years on China's maize production was evaluated combined the latest climate prediction with the reason be ing analyzed. The results showed that if the current speeds of maize variety improvement and science and technology development were constant, maize yield in China would be mainly in an increasing trend of reduction with time in the next 40 years in a range generally within 5%. Under A2 climate change scenario, the region with the most reduction of maize yield would be the Northeast except during 2021-2030, and the reduction would be generally in the range of 2.3%-4.2%. Maize yield reduction would be also high in the Northwest, Southwest and middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River after 2031. Under B2 scenario, the reduction of 5.3% in the Northeast in 2031-2040 would be the greatest across all regions. Other regions with considerable maize yield reduction would be mainly in the Northwest and the Southwest. Reduction in maize yield in North China would be small, generally within 2%, under any scenarios, and that in South China would be almost unchanged. The reduction of maize yield in most regions would be greater under A2 scenario than under B2 scenario except for the period of 2021-2030. The effect of the ten day precipitation on maize yield in northern China would be almost positive. However, the effect of ten day average temperature on yield of maize in all regions would be generally negative. The main reason of maize yield reduction was temperature increase in most provinces but precipitation decrease in a few provinces. Assessments of the future change of maize yield in China based on the different methods were not consistent. Further evaluation needs to consider the change of maize variety and scientific and technological progress, and to enhance the reliability of evaluation models.}, }
@article {pmid25983336, year = {2015}, author = {Arbuckle, JG and Morton, LW and Hobbs, J}, title = {Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.}, journal = {Environment and behavior}, volume = {47}, number = {2}, pages = {205-234}, pmid = {25983336}, issn = {0013-9165}, abstract = {Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).}, }
@article {pmid25982153, year = {2015}, author = {Taylor, SA and Larson, EL and Harrison, RG}, title = {Hybrid zones: windows on climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {398-406}, pmid = {25982153}, issn = {1872-8383}, support = {R01 HD073439/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R01HD73439/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Genetics, Population ; *Hybridization, Genetic ; Plant Dispersal ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Defining the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity and species distributions is currently a high priority. Niche models focus primarily on predicted changes in abiotic factors; however, species interactions and adaptive evolution will impact the ability of species to persist in the face of changing climate. Our review focuses on the use of hybrid zones to monitor responses of species to contemporary climate change. Monitoring hybrid zones provides insight into how range boundaries shift in response to climate change by illuminating the combined effects of species interactions and physiological sensitivity. At the same time, the semipermeable nature of species boundaries allows us to document adaptive introgression of alleles associated with response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25982028, year = {2015}, author = {Huang, P and Lin, II and Chou, C and Huang, RH}, title = {Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {7188}, pmid = {25982028}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas.}, }
@article {pmid25981180, year = {2015}, author = {Wang, B and Xiang, B and Li, J and Webster, PJ and Rajeevan, MN and Liu, J and Ha, KJ}, title = {Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {7154}, pmid = {25981180}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is at the heart of tropical climate prediction. Despite enormous progress having been made in predicting ISMR since 1886, the operational forecasts during recent decades (1989-2012) have little skill. Here we show, with both dynamical and physical-empirical models, that this recent failure is largely due to the models' inability to capture new predictability sources emerging during recent global warming, that is, the development of the central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (CP-ENSO), the rapid deepening of the Asian Low and the strengthening of North and South Pacific Highs during boreal spring. A physical-empirical model that captures these new predictors can produce an independent forecast skill of 0.51 for 1989-2012 and a 92-year retrospective forecast skill of 0.64 for 1921-2012. The recent low skills of the dynamical models are attributed to deficiencies in capturing the developing CP-ENSO and anomalous Asian Low. The results reveal a considerable gap between ISMR prediction skill and predictability.}, }
@article {pmid25980972, year = {2016}, author = {Majone, B and Villa, F and Deidda, R and Bellin, A}, title = {Impact of climate change and water use policies on hydropower potential in the south-eastern Alpine region.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {543}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {965-980}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.009}, pmid = {25980972}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to cause alterations of streamflow regimes in the Alpine region, with possible relevant consequences for several socio-economic sectors including hydropower production. The impact of climate change on water resources and hydropower production is evaluated with reference to the Noce catchment, which is located in the Southeastern Alps, Italy. Projected changes of precipitation and temperature, derived from an ensemble of 4 climate model (CM) runs for the period 2040-2070 under the SRES A1B emission scenario, have been downscaled and bias corrected before using them as climatic forcing in a hydrological model. Projections indicate an increase of the mean temperature of the catchment in the range 2-4K, depending on the climate model used. Projections of precipitation indicate an increase of annual precipitation in the range between 2% and 6% with larger changes in winter and autumn. Hydrological simulations show an increase of water yield during the period 2040-2070 with respect to 1970-2000. Furthermore, a transition from glacio-nival to nival regime is projected for the catchment. Hydrological regime is expected to change as a consequence of less winter precipitation falling as snow and anticipated melting in spring, with the runoff peak decreasing in intensity and anticipating from July to June. Changes in water availability reflect in the Technical Hydropower Potential (THP) of the catchment, with larger changes projected for the hydropower plants located at the highest altitudes. Finally, the impacts on THP of water use policies such as the introduction of prescriptions for minimum ecological flow (MEF) have been analyzed. Simulations indicate that in the lower part of the catchment reduction of the hydropower production due to MEF releases from the storage reservoirs counterbalances the benefits associated to the projected increases of inflows as foreseen by simulations driven only by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25978759, year = {2015}, author = {Schneider, RR and Bayne, EM}, title = {Reserve Design under Climate Change: From Land Facets Back to Ecosystem Representation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {e0126918}, pmid = {25978759}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Alberta ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Ecosystem distributions are expected to shift as a result of global warming, raising concerns about the long-term utility of reserve systems based on coarse-filter ecosystem representation. We tested the extent to which proportional ecosystem representation targets would be maintained under a changing climate by projecting the distribution of the major ecosystems of Alberta, Canada, into the future using bioclimatic envelope models and then calculating the composition of reserves in successive periods. We used the Marxan conservation planning software to generate the suite of reserve systems for our test, varying the representation target and degree of reserve clumping. Our climate envelope projections for the 2080s indicate that virtually all reserves will, in time, be comprised of different ecosystem types than today. Nevertheless, our proportional targets for ecosystem representation were maintained across all time periods, with only minor exceptions. We hypothesize that this stability in representation arises because ecosystems may be serving as proxies for land facets, the stable abiotic landscape features that delineate major arenas of biological activity. The implication is that accommodating climate change may not require abandoning the conventional ecosystem-based approach to reserve design in favour of a strictly abiotic approach, since the two approaches may be largely synonymous.}, }
@article {pmid25976637, year = {2015}, author = {Shajari, A and Sanjerehei, MM}, title = {Modeling the distribution of urolithiasis prevalence under projected climate change in Iran.}, journal = {Urolithiasis}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {339-347}, pmid = {25976637}, issn = {2194-7236}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Forecasting ; Geographic Information Systems ; Geography, Medical ; Humans ; Iran/epidemiology ; Linear Models ; Male ; Prevalence ; Urolithiasis/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Although studies support a positive correlation between temperature and stone risk, the precise relationship between these factors has not been elucidated. We modeled the current distribution of urolithiasis prevalence in Iran using 26 bioclimatic, climatic and topographic variables based on two multivariate linear regression models in geographical information system. The impact of climate change on the stone prevalence was predicted under the projections of GFDL-ESM2G, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES climate models by mid-century (2050). Extraterrestrial radiation and isothermality in the first regression model and annual mean temperature, precipitation seasonality and isothermality in the second model were the significant (P<0.01) predictors of urolithiasis prevalence. Both regression models provided good estimates of the stone prevalence (R2>0.9) and determined a mean urolithiasis prevalence of 6% (range of 1.5-10.8%) in Iran. The climate change under the projections of GFDL-ESM2G, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES models can, respectively, lead to an average increase of 5.7, 4.3 and 9% in the urolithiasis prevalence based on the second regression model by 2050. The highest increase of the prevalence will occur in the west, northwest and southwest provinces of the country. Predicting the impact of climate change on climate-related diseases can be useful for effective preventive measures.}, }
@article {pmid25975635, year = {2015}, author = {Gibson, J}, title = {Air pollution, climate change, and health.}, journal = {The Lancet. Oncology}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {e269}, doi = {10.1016/S1470-2045(15)70238-X}, pmid = {25975635}, issn = {1474-5488}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Carbon Dioxide/*toxicity ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Neoplasms/*chemically induced/epidemiology/pathology ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid25974409, year = {2016}, author = {Motanya, NC and Valera, P}, title = {Public Health Management, Climate Change, and Incarceration: What Is the Connection?.}, journal = {Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {E20-1}, doi = {10.1097/PHH.0000000000000273}, pmid = {25974409}, issn = {1550-5022}, support = {K01CA154861/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Prisons ; *Public Health Administration ; }, }
@article {pmid25974138, year = {2015}, author = {Durkalec, A and Furgal, C and Skinner, MW and Sheldon, T}, title = {Climate change influences on environment as a determinant of Indigenous health: Relationships to place, sea ice, and health in an Inuit community.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {136-137}, number = {}, pages = {17-26}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.04.026}, pmid = {25974138}, issn = {1873-5347}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; *Environmental Health ; Female ; Focus Groups ; Freedom ; *Geography, Medical ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Ice Cover ; *Inuit/psychology ; Male ; Mental Health ; Newfoundland and Labrador ; Residence Characteristics ; }, abstract = {This paper contributes to the literature on Indigenous health, human dimensions of climate change, and place-based dimensions of health by examining the role of environment for Inuit health in the context of a changing climate. We investigated the relationship between one key element of the environment - sea ice - and diverse aspects of health in an Inuit community in northern Canada, drawing on population health and health geography approaches. We used a case study design and participatory and collaborative approach with the community of Nain in northern Labrador, Canada. Focus groups (n = 2), interviews (n = 22), and participant observation were conducted in 2010-11. We found that an appreciation of place was critical for understanding the full range of health influences of sea ice use for Inuit. Negative physical health impacts were reported on less frequently than positive health benefits of sea ice use, which were predominantly related to mental/emotional, spiritual, social, and cultural health. We found that sea ice means freedom for sea ice users, which we suggest influences individual and collective health through relationships between sea ice use, culture, knowledge, and autonomy. While sea ice users reported increases in negative physical health impacts such as injuries and stress related to changing environmental conditions, we suggest that less tangible climate change impacts related to losses of health benefits and disruptions to place meanings and place attachment may be even more significant. Our findings indicate that climate change is resulting in and compounding existing environmental dispossession for Inuit. They also demonstrate the necessity of considering place meanings, culture, and socio-historical context to assess the complexity of climate change impacts on Indigenous environmental health.}, }
@article {pmid25971738, year = {2015}, author = {Tuberville, TD and Andrews, KM and Sperry, JH and Grosse, AM}, title = {Use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as an Assessment Tool for Reptiles and Amphibians: Lessons Learned.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {822-834}, pmid = {25971738}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Amphibians/genetics/*physiology ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Genetic Variation ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Reptiles/genetics/*physiology ; Southeastern United States ; Species Specificity ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.}, }
@article {pmid25970705, year = {2015}, author = {Baker, MB and Venugopal, PD and Lamp, WO}, title = {Climate Change and Phenology: Empoasca fabae (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) Migration and Severity of Impact.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {e0124915}, pmid = {25970705}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Hemiptera/pathogenicity/*physiology ; *Models, Statistical ; Solanum tuberosum/*parasitology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change can benefit individual species, but when pest species are enhanced by warmer temperatures agricultural productivity may be placed at greater risk. We analyzed the effects of temperature anomaly on arrival date and infestation severity of potato leafhopper, Empoasca fabae Harris, a classic new world long distance migrant, and a significant pest in several agricultural crops. We compiled E. fabae arrival dates and infestation severity data at different states in USA from existing literature reviews and agricultural extension records from 1951-2012, and examined the influence of temperature anomalies at each target state or overwintering range on the date of arrival and severity of infestation. Average E. fabae arrival date at different states reveal a clear trend along the south-north axis, with earliest arrival closest to the overwintering range. E. fabae arrival has advanced by 10 days over the last 62 years. E. fabae arrived earlier in warmer years in relation to each target state level temperature anomaly (3.0 days / °C increase in temperature anomaly). Increased temperature had a significant and positive effect on the severity of infestation, and arrival date had a marginal negative effect on severity. These relationships suggest that continued warming could advance the time of E. fabae colonization and increase their impact on affected crops.}, }
@article {pmid25965185, year = {2015}, author = {Nordio, F and Zanobetti, A and Colicino, E and Kloog, I and Schwartz, J}, title = {Changing patterns of the temperature-mortality association by time and location in the US, and implications for climate change.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {81}, number = {}, pages = {80-86}, pmid = {25965185}, issn = {1873-6750}, support = {P30 ES000002/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R21 ES020695/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; ES000002/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; ES020695/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Cluster Analysis ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Mortality ; Risk ; Seasons ; Temperature ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-year periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature-mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lags 1-5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27 °C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-h temperature of 27 °C decreased over time from 10.6% to 0.9%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid25957865, year = {2016}, author = {Lee, H and Kang, WS and Ahn, MI and Cho, K and Lee, JH}, title = {Predicting temporal shifts in the spring occurrence of overwintered Scotinophara lurida (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) and rice phenology in Korea with climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {60}, number = {1}, pages = {53-61}, pmid = {25957865}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Hemiptera/*physiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development ; Republic of Korea ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change could shift the phenology of insects and plants and alter their linkage in space and time. We examined the synchrony of rice and its insect pest, Scotinophara lurida (Burmeister), under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario by comparing the mean spring immigration time of overwintered S. lurida with the mean rice transplanting times in Korea. The immigration time of S. lurida was estimated using an overwintered adult flight model. The rice transplanting time of three cultivars (early, medium, and medium-late maturing) was estimated by forecasting the optimal cultivation period using leaf appearance and final leaf number models. A temperature increase significantly advanced the 99% immigration time of S. lurida from Julian day 192.1 in the 2000s to 178.4 in the 2050s and 163.1 in the 2090s. In contrast, rice transplanting time was significantly delayed in the early-maturing cultivar from day 141.2 in the 2000s to 166.7 in the 2050s and 190.6 in the 2090s, in the medium-maturing cultivar from day 130.6 in the 2000s to 156.6 in the 2050s and 184.7 in the 2090s, and in the medium-late maturing cultivar from day 128.5 in 2000s to 152.9 in the 2050s and 182.3 in the 2090s. These simulation results predict a significant future phenological asynchrony between S. lurida and rice in Korea.}, }
@article {pmid25956804, year = {2016}, author = {Roshan, G and Yousefi, R and Fitchett, JM}, title = {Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {60}, number = {1}, pages = {33-52}, pmid = {25956804}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Cities ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Cold-Shock Response ; Heat-Shock Response ; Humans ; Iran ; Seasons ; Thermosensing ; Travel/*trends ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45% of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10% of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.}, }
@article {pmid25956206, year = {2016}, author = {La Jeunesse, I and Cirelli, C and Aubin, D and Larrue, C and Sellami, H and Afifi, S and Bellin, A and Benabdallah, S and Bird, DN and Deidda, R and Dettori, M and Engin, G and Herrmann, F and Ludwig, R and Mabrouk, B and Majone, B and Paniconi, C and Soddu, A}, title = {Is climate change a threat for water uses in the Mediterranean region? Results from a survey at local scale.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {543}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {981-996}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.062}, pmid = {25956206}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Water scarcity and water security are linked, not only through the direct effects of water shortages on each water users' access to water, but also because of water conflicts generated. Climate change is predicted to raise temperatures in the Mediterranean region and reduce rainfall, leading to a reduction in water yield and possibly worsening the situation of water resource shortages that Mediterranean regions are already experiencing. In its dissemination strategy, the EU FP7 CLIMB project addressed water security threats through an analysis of water uses and water use rivalries within a few target catchments distributed over the Mediterranean region. The present work explores whether climate change is locally perceived by stakeholders (water users and managers) as a key issue for their water uses and water security. Individual interviews, meetings, and compilation of questionnaires were conducted at five sites located in the Mediterranean region. The methodology permitted an analysis of water use and its evolution in the water management context, an identification of the state of awareness of local stakeholders and of the pressures on water use and water use rivalries, and a prioritization of water uses. Currently, the main response to increasing water demand in the Mediterranean region, while not yet considering climate change as a driving force, is a progressive externalization of water resources, with limits represented by national borders and technological possibilities. Overall, 'climate change' was not mentioned by stakeholders during both interviews and in answers to the questionnaires. Even the prospect of decreasing precipitation was not considered a relevant or threatening issue in the coming 20years. This confirms the need to continue all efforts to disseminate the state of knowledge on climate change impacts in the Mediterranean region, such as water scarcity, especially to local water managers, as initiated by various research programs of the European Commission.}, }
@article {pmid25947315, year = {2015}, author = {Fann, N and Nolte, CG and Dolwick, P and Spero, TL and Brown, AC and Phillips, S and Anenberg, S}, title = {The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {65}, number = {5}, pages = {570-580}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2014.996270}, pmid = {25947315}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/standards/*toxicity ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure/economics ; Environmental Policy/economics ; Forecasting ; Government Regulation ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Ozone/standards/*toxicity ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/chemically induced/*economics/*epidemiology/mortality ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1-4°C and 1-5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).<br><br>IMPLICATIONS: Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4&#xb0;C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1-5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).}, }
@article {pmid25943801, year = {2015}, author = {Jaffe, S}, title = {Obama steps up US campaign on climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {385}, number = {9978}, pages = {1606-1607}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60777-2}, pmid = {25943801}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Famous Persons ; *Federal Government ; Fossil Fuels ; Global Health ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Politics ; Power Plants ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid25939014, year = {2015}, author = {Humpenöder, F and Popp, A and Stevanovic, M and Müller, C and Bodirsky, BL and Bonsch, M and Dietrich, JP and Lotze-Campen, H and Weindl, I and Biewald, A and Rolinski, S}, title = {Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {49}, number = {11}, pages = {6731-6739}, doi = {10.1021/es506201r}, pmid = {25939014}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Carbon/analysis ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.}, }
@article {pmid25935362, year = {2015}, author = {Pascua, L and Chang, CH}, title = {Using intervention-oriented evaluation to diagnose and correct students' persistent climate change misconceptions: A Singapore case study.}, journal = {Evaluation and program planning}, volume = {52}, number = {}, pages = {70-77}, doi = {10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2015.04.001}, pmid = {25935362}, issn = {1873-7870}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; Comprehension ; Educational Measurement ; Faculty/standards ; Female ; *Formative Feedback ; Geography/education ; Humans ; Organizational Case Studies ; Problem-Based Learning/methods/*standards ; Program Development ; Program Evaluation ; Singapore ; Students/*psychology ; Teaching/methods/standards ; }, abstract = {The evaluation of classroom-based educational interventions is fraught with tensions, the most critical of which is choosing between focusing the inquiry on measuring the effects of treatment or in proximately utilizing the data to improve practice. This paper attempted to achieve both goals through the use of intervention-oriented evaluation of a professional development program intended to diagnose and correct students' misconceptions of climate change. Data was gathered, monitored and analyzed in three stages of a time-series design: the baseline, treatment and follow-up stages. The evaluation itself was the 'intervention' such that the data was allowed to 'contaminate' the treatment. This was achieved through giving the teacher unimpeded access to the collected information and to introduce midcourse corrections as she saw fit to her instruction. Results showed a significant development in students' conceptual understanding only after the teacher's decision to use direct and explicit refutation of misconceptions. Due to the accessibility of feedback, it was possible to locate specifically at which point in the process that the intervention was most effective. The efficacy of the intervention was then measured through comparing the scores across the three research stages. The inclusion of a comparison group to the design is recommended for future studies.}, }
@article {pmid25932822, year = {2015}, author = {}, title = {Erratum: Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {123}, number = {5}, pages = {A118}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.123-A118}, pmid = {25932822}, issn = {1552-9924}, }
@article {pmid25931559, year = {2015}, author = {Urban, MC}, title = {Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {348}, number = {6234}, pages = {571-573}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaa4984}, pmid = {25931559}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Extinction, Biological ; Hot Temperature ; New Zealand ; Risk ; South America ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.}, }
@article {pmid25931540, year = {2015}, author = {Lambers, JH}, title = {Ecology. Extinction risks from climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {348}, number = {6234}, pages = {501-502}, doi = {10.1126/science.aab2057}, pmid = {25931540}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Extinction, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid25930066, year = {2015}, author = {Ágreda, T and Águeda, B and Olano, JM and Vicente-Serrano, SM and Fernández-Toirán, M}, title = {Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {9}, pages = {3499-3510}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12960}, pmid = {25930066}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Fungi/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Global Warming ; Mycorrhizae/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Pinus/growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Spain ; Temperature ; Water/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid25929883, year = {2015}, author = {Santidrián Tomillo, P and Genovart, M and Paladino, FV and Spotila, JR and Oro, D}, title = {Climate change overruns resilience conferred by temperature-dependent sex determination in sea turtles and threatens their survival.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {2980-2988}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12918}, pmid = {25929883}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Sex Ratio ; Temperature ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) is the predominant form of environmental sex determination (ESD) in reptiles, but the adaptive significance of TSD in this group remains unclear. Additionally, the viability of species with TSD may be compromised as climate gets warmer. We simulated population responses in a turtle with TSD to increasing nest temperatures and compared the results to those of a virtual population with genotypic sex determination (GSD) and fixed sex ratios. Then, we assessed the effectiveness of TSD as a mechanism to maintain populations under climate change scenarios. TSD populations were more resilient to increased nest temperatures and mitigated the negative effects of high temperatures by increasing production of female offspring and therefore, future fecundity. That buffered the negative effect of temperature on the population growth. TSD provides an evolutionary advantage to sea turtles. However, this mechanism was only effective over a range of temperatures and will become inefficient as temperatures rise to levels projected by current climate change models. Projected global warming threatens survival of sea turtles, and the IPCC high gas concentration scenario may result in extirpation of the studied population in 50 years.}, }
@article {pmid25929802, year = {2016}, author = {Prettenthaler, F and Köberl, J and Bird, DN}, title = {'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {543}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {1010-1018}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.035}, pmid = {25929802}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid25926133, year = {2015}, author = {von Schneidemesser, E and Monks, PS and Allan, JD and Bruhwiler, L and Forster, P and Fowler, D and Lauer, A and Morgan, WT and Paasonen, P and Righi, M and Sindelarova, K and Sutton, MA}, title = {Chemistry and the Linkages between Air Quality and Climate Change.}, journal = {Chemical reviews}, volume = {115}, number = {10}, pages = {3856-3897}, doi = {10.1021/acs.chemrev.5b00089}, pmid = {25926133}, issn = {1520-6890}, }
@article {pmid25925479, year = {2015}, author = {, }, title = {Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {520}, number = {7549}, pages = {661-665}, pmid = {25925479}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid25922938, year = {2015}, author = {Brügger, A and Morton, TA and Dessai, S}, title = {Hand in hand: public endorsement of climate change mitigation and adaptation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {e0124843}, pmid = {25922938}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Risk ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {This research investigated how an individual's endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that "localising" climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.}, }
@article {pmid25920066, year = {2015}, author = {Bansal, S and St Clair, JB and Harrington, CA and Gould, PJ}, title = {Impact of climate change on cold hardiness of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii): environmental and genetic considerations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {3814-3826}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12958}, pmid = {25920066}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; *Gene-Environment Interaction ; *Genetic Variation ; Northwestern United States ; Pseudotsuga/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The success of conifers over much of the world's terrestrial surface is largely attributable to their tolerance to cold stress (i.e., cold hardiness). Due to an increase in climate variability, climate change may reduce conifer cold hardiness, which in turn could impact ecosystem functioning and productivity in conifer-dominated forests. The expression of cold hardiness is a product of environmental cues (E), genetic differentiation (G), and their interaction (G × E), although few studies have considered all components together. To better understand and manage for the impacts of climate change on conifer cold hardiness, we conducted a common garden experiment replicated in three test environments (cool, moderate, and warm) using 35 populations of coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) to test the hypotheses: (i) cool-temperature cues in fall are necessary to trigger cold hardening, (ii) there is large genetic variation among populations in cold hardiness that can be predicted from seed-source climate variables, (iii) observed differences among populations in cold hardiness in situ are dependent on effective environmental cues, and (iv) movement of seed sources from warmer to cooler climates will increase risk to cold injury. During fall 2012, we visually assessed cold damage of bud, needle, and stem tissues following artificial freeze tests. Cool-temperature cues (e.g., degree hours below 2 °C) at the test sites were associated with cold hardening, which were minimal at the moderate test site owing to mild fall temperatures. Populations differed 3-fold in cold hardiness, with winter minimum temperatures and fall frost dates as strong seed-source climate predictors of cold hardiness, and with summer temperatures and aridity as secondary predictors. Seed-source movement resulted in only modest increases in cold damage. Our findings indicate that increased fall temperatures delay cold hardening, warmer/drier summers confer a degree of cold hardiness, and seed-source movement from warmer to cooler climates may be a viable option for adapting coniferous forest to future climate.}, }
@article {pmid25918391, year = {2015}, author = {Davis, LW and Gertler, PJ}, title = {Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {19}, pages = {5962-5967}, pmid = {25918391}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25915704, year = {2015}, author = {Hodgson, S}, title = {Moving health sovereignty in Africa - disease, governance, climate change.}, journal = {Medicine, conflict, and survival}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {134-136}, doi = {10.1080/13623699.2015.1032523}, pmid = {25915704}, issn = {1362-3699}, }
@article {pmid25914808, year = {2015}, author = {Mayala, BK and Fahey, CA and Wei, D and Zinga, MM and Bwana, VM and Mlacha, T and Rumisha, SF and Stanley, G and Shayo, EH and Mboera, LE}, title = {Knowledge, perception and practices about malaria, climate change, livelihoods and food security among rural communities of central Tanzania.}, journal = {Infectious diseases of poverty}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {21}, pmid = {25914808}, issn = {2095-5162}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Understanding the interactions between malaria and agriculture in Tanzania is of particular significance when considering that they are the major sources of illness and livelihoods. The objective of this study was to determine knowledge, perceptions and practices as regards to malaria, climate change, livelihoods and food insecurity in a rural farming community in central Tanzania.<br><br>METHODS: Using a cross-sectional design, heads of households were interviewed on their knowledge and perceptions on malaria transmission, symptoms and prevention and knowledge and practices as regards to climate change and food security.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 399 individuals (mean age&#x2009;=&#x2009;39.8&#x2009;&#xb1;&#x2009;15.5&#xa0;years) were interviewed. Most (62.41%) of them had attained primary school education and majority (91.23%) were involved in crop farming activities. Nearly all (94.7%) knew that malaria is acquired through a mosquito bite. Three quarters (73%) reported that most people get sick from malaria during the rainy season. About 50% of the respondents felt that malaria had decreased during the last 10&#xa0;years. The household coverage of insecticide treated mosquito nets (ITN) was high (95.5%). Ninety-six percent reported to have slept under a mosquito net the previous night. Only one in four understood the official Kiswahili term (Mabadiliko ya Tabia Nchi) for climate change. However, there was a general understanding that the rain patterns have changed in the past 10&#xa0;years. Sixty-two percent believed that the temperature has increased during the same period. Three quarters of the respondents reported that they had no sufficient production from their own farms to guarantee food security in their household for the year. Three quarters (73.0%) reported to having food shortages in the past five years. About half said they most often experienced severe food shortage during the rainy season.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Farming communities in Kilosa District have little knowledge on climate change and its impact on malaria burden. Food insecurity is common and community-based strategies to mitigate this need to be established. The findings call for an integrated control of malaria and food insecurity interventions.}, }
@article {pmid25914280, year = {2015}, author = {Eichler, M}, title = {Raising children to cope with climate change?.}, journal = {Canadian review of sociology = Revue canadienne de sociologie}, volume = {52}, number = {2}, pages = {232-240}, doi = {10.1111/cars.12075}, pmid = {25914280}, issn = {1755-618X}, }
@article {pmid25913661, year = {2015}, author = {Lempereur, M and Martin-StPaul, NK and Damesin, C and Joffre, R and Ourcival, JM and Rocheteau, A and Rambal, S}, title = {Growth duration is a better predictor of stem increment than carbon supply in a Mediterranean oak forest: implications for assessing forest productivity under climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {207}, number = {3}, pages = {579-590}, doi = {10.1111/nph.13400}, pmid = {25913661}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Carbon/*pharmacology ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Mediterranean Region ; Photosynthesis/drug effects ; Plant Stems/*growth &amp; development ; Population Density ; Quercus/drug effects/*growth &amp; development ; Rain ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; Trees/anatomy &amp; histology ; Water ; }, abstract = {Understanding whether tree growth is limited by carbon gain (source limitation) or by the direct effect of environmental factors such as water deficit or temperature (sink limitation) is crucial for improving projections of the effects of climate change on forest productivity. We studied the relationships between tree basal area (BA) variations, eddy covariance carbon fluxes, predawn water potential (Ψpd) and temperature at different timescales using an 8-yr dataset and a rainfall exclusion experiment in a Quercus ilex Mediterranean coppice. At the daily timescale, during periods of low temperature (< 5°C) and high water deficit (< -1.1 MPa), gross primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity remained positive whereas the stem increment was nil. Thus, stem increment appeared limited by drought and temperature rather than by carbon input. Annual growth was accurately predicted by the duration of BA increment during spring (Δtt0-t1). The onset of growth (t0) was related to winter temperatures and the summer interruption of growth (t1) to a threshold Ψpd value of -1.1 MPa. We suggest that using environmental drivers (i.e. drought and temperature) to predict stem growth phenology can contribute to an improvement in vegetation models and may change the current projections of Mediterranean forest productivity under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid25912918, year = {2015}, author = {Lutz, W and Striessnig, E}, title = {Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.}, journal = {Population studies}, volume = {69 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S69-76}, doi = {10.1080/00324728.2014.969929}, pmid = {25912918}, issn = {1477-4747}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Demography ; Humans ; *Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.}, }
@article {pmid25906192, year = {2015}, author = {Pan, T and Wu, S and Liu, Y}, title = {Relative Contributions of Land Use and Climate Change to Water Supply Variations over Yellow River Source Area in Tibetan Plateau during the Past Three Decades.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {e0123793}, pmid = {25906192}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Tibet ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {There is increasing evidence of environmental change impacts on ecosystem processes and services, yet poor understanding of the relative contributions of land use and climate change to ecosystem services variations. Based on detailed meteorological, hydrological records and satellite data over the Yellow River Source Area (YRSA) in Tibetan Plateau from 1980s to 2008, together with a water-yield module of Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and also a Residual Trends (RESTREND) method, we assessed the water supply variations in YRSA during the past three decades and disentangled the relative contributions of land use and climate change. Results show that water supply significantly decreased from 1980 to 2005 and then increased from 2005 to 2008. The quantity slightly decreased from 283.01 mm in 1980 to 276.95 mm in 1995, 270.12 mm in 2000 and 267.97 mm in 2005, and it then rebounded slightly to 275.26 mm in 2008. The water supply variation ranged from 283.01 mm to 267.97 mm. Climate change contributed dominantly to water supply decrease from 1980 to 1995, which accounts for approximately 64% of the decrease. During 1995 to 2000, land use contributed more and about 58% to the water supply decrease as the intense human activities. From 2000 to 2005, climate change became a positive contribution to the water supply as the increased precipitation, but the land use still contributed negatively. From 2005 to 2008, both climate and land use have positive impacts, but land use contributed about 61% to the water supply increase. The implementation of the Three Rivers Source Area Ecological Protection Project has greatly improved the vegetation coverage conditions and the water retention ability during this period. We recommend that the implementation of ecological projects, grazing policies and artificial improvement of degraded grassland would help to conserve the water retention ability and increase water supply.}, }
@article {pmid25904668, year = {2015}, author = {Kristensen, NP and Johansson, J and Ripa, J and Jonzén, N}, title = {Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {282}, number = {1807}, pages = {20150288}, pmid = {25904668}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Birds/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Models, Biological ; Phenotype ; Predatory Behavior ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits-arrival date and hatching date-and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey phenology. Second, when resource availability constrains the length of the pre-laying period, hatching is adaptively asynchronous with prey phenology. Predictions for both traits compare well with empirical observations. In response to advancing prey phenology, arrival date may advance, remain unchanged, or even become delayed; the latter occurring when egg-laying resources are only available relatively late in the season. The model shows that asynchronous hatching and unresponsive arrival date are not sufficient evidence that phenological adaptation is constrained. The work provides a framework for exploring microevolution of interdependent phenological traits.}, }
@article {pmid25904659, year = {2015}, author = {Stenseth, NC and Durant, JM and Fowler, MS and Matthysen, E and Adriaensen, F and Jonzén, N and Chan, KS and Liu, H and De Laet, J and Sheldon, BC and Visser, ME and Dhondt, AA}, title = {Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {282}, number = {1807}, pages = {20141958}, pmid = {25904659}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Competitive Behavior ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Models, Statistical ; Passeriformes/*physiology ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting long-term coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion.}, }
@article {pmid25900882, year = {2015}, author = {Dobson, A and Molnár, PK and Kutz, S}, title = {Climate change and Arctic parasites.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {31}, number = {5}, pages = {181-188}, doi = {10.1016/j.pt.2015.03.006}, pmid = {25900882}, issn = {1471-5007}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild/parasitology ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Host-Parasite Interactions/*physiology ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Parasites/physiology ; Parasitic Diseases, Animal/*transmission ; }, abstract = {Climate is changing rapidly in the Arctic. This has important implications for parasites of Arctic ungulates, and hence for the welfare of Arctic peoples who depend on caribou, reindeer, and muskoxen for food, income, and a focus for cultural activities. In this Opinion article we briefly review recent work on the development of predictive models for the impacts of climate change on helminth parasites and other pathogens of Arctic wildlife, in the hope that such models may eventually allow proactive mitigation and conservation strategies. We describe models that have been developed using the metabolic theory of ecology. The main strength of these models is that they can be easily parameterized using basic information about the physical size of the parasite. Initial results suggest they provide important new insights that are likely to generalize to a range of host-parasite systems.}, }
@article {pmid25898351, year = {2015}, author = {Brown, PT and Li, W and Cordero, EC and Mauget, SA}, title = {Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {9957}, pmid = {25898351}, issn = {2045-2322}, support = {R21 AG044294/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; 1R21AG044294-01A1/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Climate ; Global Warming ; *Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.}, }
@article {pmid25897507, year = {2015}, author = {Fu, B and Pollino, CA and Cuddy, SM and Andrews, F}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on wetlands in a flow regulated catchment: A case study in the Macquarie Marshes, Australia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {157}, number = {}, pages = {127-138}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.04.021}, pmid = {25897507}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Fishes ; Models, Theoretical ; Plants ; Water Movements ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Globally wetlands are increasingly under threat due to changes in water regimes as a result of river regulation and climate change. We developed the Exploring CLimAte Impacts on Management (EXCLAIM) decision support system (DSS), which simulates flow-driven habitat condition for 16 vegetation species, 13 waterbird species and 4 fish groups in the Macquarie catchment, Australia. The EXCLAIM DSS estimates impacts to habitat condition, considering scenarios of climate change and water management. The model framework underlying the DSS is a probabilistic Bayesian network, and this approach was chosen to explicitly represent uncertainties in climate change scenarios and predicted ecological outcomes. The results suggest that the scenario with no climate change and no water resource development (i.e. flow condition without dams, weirs or water license entitlements, often regarded as a surrogate for 'natural' flow) consistently has the most beneficial outcomes for vegetation, waterbird and native fish. The 2030 dry climate change scenario delivers the poorest ecological outcomes overall, whereas the 2030 wet climate change scenario has beneficial outcomes for waterbird breeding, but delivers poor outcomes for river red gum and black box woodlands, and fish that prefer river channels as habitats. A formal evaluation of the waterbird breeding model showed that higher numbers of observed nest counts are typically associated with higher modelled average breeding habitat conditions. The EXCLAIM DSS provides a generic framework to link hydrology and ecological habitats for a large number of species, based on best available knowledge of their flood requirements. It is a starting point towards developing an integrated tool for assessing climate change impacts on wetland ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid25896821, year = {2015}, author = {Prokopy, LS and Arbuckle, JG and Barnes, AP and Haden, VR and Hogan, A and Niles, MT and Tyndall, J}, title = {Farmers and Climate Change: A Cross-National Comparison of Beliefs and Risk Perceptions in High-Income Countries.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {56}, number = {2}, pages = {492-504}, pmid = {25896821}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; *Agriculture ; Australia ; California ; *Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Farmers/*psychology ; Humans ; Midwestern United States ; New Zealand ; Risk Assessment ; Scotland ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change has serious implications for the agricultural industry-both in terms of the need to adapt to a changing climate and to modify practices to mitigate for the impacts of climate change. In high-income countries where farming tends to be very intensive and large scale, it is important to understand farmers' beliefs and concerns about climate change in order to develop appropriate policies and communication strategies. Looking across six study sites-Scotland, Midwestern United States, California, Australia, and two locations in New Zealand-this paper finds that over half of farmers in each location believe that climate change is occurring. However, there is a wide range of beliefs regarding the anthropogenic nature of climate change; only in Australia do a majority of farmers believe that climate change is anthropogenic. In all locations, a majority of farmers believe that climate change is not a threat to local agriculture. The different policy contexts and existing impacts from climate change are discussed as possible reasons for the variation in beliefs. This study compared varying surveys from the different locations and concludes that survey research on farmers and climate change in diverse locations should strive to include common questions to facilitate comparisons.}, }
@article {pmid25896548, year = {2015}, author = {McMichael, AJ and Butler, CD and Dixon, J}, title = {Climate change, food systems and population health risks in their eco-social context.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {129}, number = {10}, pages = {1361-1368}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2014.11.013}, pmid = {25896548}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; Ecosystem ; Food Industry ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk ; }, abstract = {The establishment of ecological public health as crucial to modern public health is overdue. While the basic concepts have been gestating for decades, receptivity within broader public health has been limited. This position is changing, not least as the population-level impacts of climate change and, more broadly, of limits to growth are emerging from theory and forecasting into daily reality. This paper describes several key elements of ecological public health thinking. These include the 'environmental' risks to human health (often systemic and disruptive, rather than local and toxic) posed by climate change and other forms of adverse global environmental change. Closer recognition of the links between social and environmental factors has been urged--an 'eco-social' approach--and, relatedly, for greater co-operation between social and natural sciences. The authors revisit critics of capitalism who foresaw the global capture and transformation of ecosystems for material human ends, and their resultant despoliation. The perennial call within public health to reduce vulnerability by lessening poverty is more important than ever, given the multifactored threat to the health of the poor which is anticipated, assuming no radical strategies to alleviate these pressures. But enhanced health security for the poor requires more than the reconfiguring of social determinants; it also requires, as the overarching frame, ecological public health.}, }
@article {pmid25892033, year = {2015}, author = {Jin, L and Whitehead, PG and Sarkar, S and Sinha, R and Futter, MN and Butterfield, D and Caesar, J and Crossman, J}, title = {Assessing the impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes on flow and phosphorus flux in the Ganga river system.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {1098-1110}, doi = {10.1039/c5em00092k}, pmid = {25892033}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; India ; Phosphorus/*analysis ; Rivers ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change has impacted and will continue to impact the natural environment and people around the world. Increasing temperatures and altered rainfall patterns combined with socio-economic factors such as population changes, land use changes and water transfers will affect flows and nutrient fluxes in river systems. The Ganga river, one of the largest river systems in the world, supports approximately 10% global population and more than 700 cities. Changes in the Ganga river system are likely to have a significant impact on water availability, water quality, aquatic habitats and people. In order to investigate these potential changes on the flow and water quality of the Ganga river, a multi-branch version of INCA Phosphorus (INCA-P) model has been applied to the entire river system. The model is used to quantify the impacts from a changing climate, population growth, additional agricultural land, pollution control and water transfers for 2041-2060 and 2080-2099. The results provide valuable information about potential effects of different management strategies on catchment water quality.}, }
@article {pmid25891785, year = {2015}, author = {Orwin, KH and Stevenson, BA and Smaill, SJ and Kirschbaum, MU and Dickie, IA and Clothier, BE and Garrett, LG and van der Weerden, TJ and Beare, MH and Curtin, D and de Klein, CA and Dodd, MB and Gentile, R and Hedley, C and Mullan, B and Shepherd, M and Wakelin, SA and Bell, N and Bowatte, S and Davis, MR and Dominati, E and O'Callaghan, M and Parfitt, RL and Thomas, SM}, title = {Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil-mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {2844-2860}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12949}, pmid = {25891785}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; New Zealand ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being.}, }
@article {pmid25891683, year = {2016}, author = {Köberl, J and Prettenthaler, F and Bird, DN}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts on tourism demand: A comparative study from Sardinia (Italy) and Cap Bon (Tunisia).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {543}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {1039-1053}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.099}, pmid = {25891683}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Tourism represents an important source of income and employment in many Mediterranean regions, including the island of Sardinia (Italy) and the Cap Bon peninsula (Tunisia). Climate change may however impact tourism in both regions, for example, by altering the regions' climatic suitability for common tourism types or affecting water availability. This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on tourism in the case study regions of Sardinia and Cap Bon. Direct impacts are studied in a quantitative way by applying a range of climate scenario data on the empirically estimated relationship between climatic conditions and tourism demand, using two different approaches. Results indicate a potential for climate-induced tourism revenue gains especially in the shoulder seasons during spring and autumn, but also a threat of climate-induced revenue losses in the summer months due to increased heat stress. Annual direct net impacts are nevertheless suggested to be (slightly) positive in both case study regions. Significant climate-induced reductions in total available water may however somewhat counteract the positive direct impacts of climate change by putting additional water costs on the tourism industry.}, }
@article {pmid25889797, year = {2015}, author = {Yang, J and Graf, T and Ptak, T}, title = {Impact of climate change on freshwater resources in a heterogeneous coastal aquifer of Bremerhaven, Germany: A three-dimensional modeling study.}, journal = {Journal of contaminant hydrology}, volume = {177-178}, number = {}, pages = {107-121}, doi = {10.1016/j.jconhyd.2015.03.014}, pmid = {25889797}, issn = {1873-6009}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Estuaries ; Fresh Water/analysis/chemistry ; Germany ; *Groundwater/analysis/chemistry ; Hydrology/methods ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; Salinity ; Seawater/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to induce sea level rise in the German Bight, which is part of the North Sea, Germany. Climate change may also modify river discharge of the river Weser flowing into the German Bight, which will alter both pressure and salinity distributions in the river Weser estuary. To study the long-term interaction between sea level rise, discharge variations, a storm surge and coastal aquifer flow dynamics, a 3D seawater intrusion model was designed using the fully coupled surface-subsurface numerical model HydroGeoSphere. The model simulates the coastal aquifer as an integral system considering complexities such as variable-density flow, variably saturated flow, irregular boundary conditions, irregular land surface and anthropogenic structures (e.g., dyke, drainage canals, water gates). The simulated steady-state groundwater flow of the year 2009 is calibrated using PEST. In addition, four climate change scenarios are simulated based on the calibrated model: (i) sea level rise of 1m, (ii) the salinity of the seaside boundary increases by 4 PSU (Practical Salinity Units), (iii) the salinity of the seaside boundary decreases by 12 PSU, and (iv) a storm surge with partial dyke failure. Under scenarios (i) and (iv), the salinized area expands several kilometers further inland during several years. Natural remediation can take up to 20 years. However, sudden short-term salinity changes in the river Weser estuary do not influence the salinized area in the coastal aquifer. The obtained results are useful for coastal engineering practices and drinking water resource management.}, }
@article {pmid25881302, year = {2015}, author = {Harris, RM and Carter, O and Gilfedder, L and Porfirio, LL and Lee, G and Bindoff, NL}, title = {Noah's Ark conservation will not preserve threatened ecological communities under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {e0124014}, pmid = {25881302}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Australia ; *Biota ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forests ; Grassland ; Models, Theoretical ; Tasmania ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community.<br><br>METHODS: We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community. We also model climatic suitability for the structurally dominant grass species of these communities, and for closely related grassland and woodland communities. We use a dynamically downscaled regional climate model derived from six CMIP3 global climate models, under the A2 SRES emissions scenario.<br><br>RESULTS: All model projections showed a large reduction in climatically suitable area by mid-century. Outcomes are slightly better if closely related grassy communities are considered, but the extent of suitable area is still substantially reduced. Only small areas within the current distribution are projected to remain climatically suitable by the end of the century, and very little of that area is currently in good condition.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: As the climate becomes less suitable, a gradual change in the species composition, structure and habitat quality of the grassland communities is likely. Conservation management will need to focus on maintaining diversity, structure and function, rather than attempting to preserve current species composition. Options for achieving this include managing related grassland types to maintain grassland species at the landscape-scale, and maximising the resilience of grasslands by reducing further fragmentation, weed invasion and stress from other land uses, while accepting that change is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the status quo by conserving the current structure and composition of Lowland Grassland communities is unlikely to be a viable management option in the long term.}, }
@article {pmid25877336, year = {2015}, author = {Wyneken, J and Lolavar, A}, title = {Loggerhead sea turtle environmental sex determination: implications of moisture and temperature for climate change based predictions for species survival.}, journal = {Journal of experimental zoology. Part B, Molecular and developmental evolution}, volume = {324}, number = {3}, pages = {295-314}, doi = {10.1002/jez.b.22620}, pmid = {25877336}, issn = {1552-5015}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Environment ; Female ; *Humidity ; Male ; Nesting Behavior ; Sex Determination Processes ; *Sex Ratio ; *Temperature ; Turtles/*embryology ; }, abstract = {It has been proposed that because marine turtles have environmentally determined sex by incubation temperature, elevated temperatures might skew sex ratios to unsustainable levels, leading to extinction. Elevated temperatures may also reduce availability of suitable nesting sites via sea level rise. Increased tropical storm activity can directly affect nest site moisture, embryonic development, and the probability that nests will survive. Here, we question some of these assumptions and review the limits of sex ratio estimates. Sea turtles may be more resilient to climate change than previously thought, in part because of hitherto unappreciated mechanisms for coping with variable incubation conditions.}, }
@article {pmid25876385, year = {2014}, author = {Li, Y and Zhang, XW and Fang, YM}, title = {[Predicting the impact of global warming on the geographical distribution pattern of Quercus variabilis in China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {12}, pages = {3381-3389}, pmid = {25876385}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Climate ; Geography ; *Global Warming ; Quercus/*growth &amp; development ; Taiwan ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteristics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS which was also used to estimate the response of future potential distribution to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geographical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions: Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, North China, East China, Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula, Taiwan Island, and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones, 2 moisture regions and 17 climatic subregions, including 8 climate types. The modern abundance center of Q. variabilis is Qinling, Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7.5-19.8 degrees C annual precipitation 471-1511 mm, is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values), of Domain and Boiclim models were 0.910, 0.779; the former predicted that the potential regions of high suitability for Q. variabilis are Qinling, Daba, Funiu, Tongbai, and Dabie mountains, eastern and western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, hills of southern Jiangsu and Anhui, part of the mountains in North China. Global warming might lead to the shrinking in suitable region and retreating from the south for Q. variabilis.}, }
@article {pmid25875230, year = {2015}, author = {Ovalle-Rivera, O and Läderach, P and Bunn, C and Obersteiner, M and Schroth, G}, title = {Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {e0124155}, pmid = {25875230}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Coffea/*growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.}, }
@article {pmid25874588, year = {2015}, author = {Bojovic, D and Bonzanigo, L and Giupponi, C and Maziotis, A}, title = {Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {157}, number = {}, pages = {8-19}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.04.001}, pmid = {25874588}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Adult ; Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Community Participation ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Decision Making, Computer-Assisted ; Environmental Policy ; European Union ; Female ; Humans ; Information Dissemination ; *Internet ; Italy ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of more representative samples, which would contribute to an informed and legitimate decision-making process.}, }
@article {pmid25874407, year = {2015}, author = {Leach, K and Kelly, R and Cameron, A and Montgomery, WI and Reid, N}, title = {Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the order lagomorpha.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {e0122267}, pmid = {25874407}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods/trends ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Lagomorpha/classification/*growth &amp; development ; *Models, Theoretical ; Phylogeography ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.}, }
@article {pmid25869430, year = {2015}, author = {Bi, EG and Monette, F and Gachon, P and Gaspéri, J and Perrodin, Y}, title = {Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the impact of climate change on a combined sewer overflow and its receiving water body.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {22}, number = {15}, pages = {11905-11921}, pmid = {25869430}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollution/*analysis ; *Rain ; *Sewage ; *Water Cycle ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Projections from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) for the southern part of the province of Québec, Canada, suggest an increase in extreme precipitation events for the 2050 horizon (2041-2070). The main goal of this study consisted in a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the impact of the 20 % increase in rainfall intensity that led, in the summer of 2013, to overflows in the "Rolland-Therrien" combined sewer system in the city of Longueuil, Canada. The PCSWMM 2013 model was used to assess the sensitivity of this overflow under current (2013) and future (2050) climate conditions. The simulated quantitative variables (peak flow, Q(CSO), and volume discharged, VD) served as the basis for deriving ecotoxicological risk indices and event fluxes (EFs) transported to the St. Lawrence (SL) River. Results highlighted 15 to 500% increases in VD and 13 to 148% increases in Q(CSO) by 2050 (compared to 2013), based on eight rainfall events measured from May to October. These results show that (i) the relationships between precipitation and combined sewer overflow variables are not linear and (ii) the design criteria for current hydraulic infrastructure must be revised to account for the impact of climate change (CC) arising from changes in precipitation regimes. EFs discharged into the SL River will be 2.24 times larger in the future than they are now (2013) due to large VDs resulting from CC. This will, in turn, lead to excessive inputs of total suspended solids (TSSs) and tracers for numerous urban pollutants (organic matter and nutrients, metals) into the receiving water body. Ecotoxicological risk indices will increase by more than 100% by 2050 compared to 2013. Given that substantial VDs are at play, and although CC scenarios have many sources of uncertainty, strategies to adapt this drainage network to the effects of CC will have to be developed.}, }
@article {pmid25863313, year = {2015}, author = {Vezzoli, R and Mercogliano, P and Pecora, S and Zollo, AL and Cacciamani, C}, title = {Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {521-522}, number = {}, pages = {346-358}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.096}, pmid = {25863313}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on Po River discharges are investigated through a set of climate, hydrological, water-balance simulations continuous in space and time. Precipitation and 2m mean temperature fields from climate projections under two different representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, have been used to drive the hydrological model. Climate projections are obtained nesting the regional climate model COSMO-CLM into the global climate model CMCC-CM. The bias in climate projections is corrected applying the distribution derived quantile mapping. The persistence of climate signal in precipitation and temperature after the bias correction is assessed in terms of climate anomaly for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods versus 1982-2011. To account for the overall uncertainty of emission scenarios, climate models and bias correction, the hydrological/water balance simulations are carried out using both raw and bias corrected climate datasets. Results show that under both RCPs, either considering raw and bias corrected climate datasets, temperature is expected to increase on the whole Po River basin and in all the seasons; the most significant changes in precipitation and discharges occur in summer, when the reduction of precipitation leads to an increase in low flow duration and occurrence likelihood, and in autumn and winter where precipitation shows a positive variation increasing the high flows frequency.}, }
@article {pmid25862992, year = {2015}, author = {Xia, X and Wu, Q and Zhu, B and Zhao, P and Zhang, S and Yang, L}, title = {Analyzing the contribution of climate change to long-term variations in sediment nitrogen sources for reservoirs/lakes.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {523}, number = {}, pages = {64-73}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.140}, pmid = {25862992}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fertilizers ; Geologic Sediments/*chemistry ; Lakes/chemistry ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Phytoplankton ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {We applied a mixing model based on stable isotopic δ(13)C, δ(15)N, and C:N ratios to estimate the contributions of multiple sources to sediment nitrogen. We also developed a conceptual model describing and analyzing the impacts of climate change on nitrogen enrichment. These two models were conducted in Miyun Reservoir to analyze the contribution of climate change to the variations in sediment nitrogen sources based on two (210)Pb and (137)Cs dated sediment cores. The results showed that during the past 50years, average contributions of soil and fertilizer, submerged macrophytes, N2-fixing phytoplankton, and non-N2-fixing phytoplankton were 40.7%, 40.3%, 11.8%, and 7.2%, respectively. In addition, total nitrogen (TN) contents in sediment showed significant increasing trends from 1960 to 2010, and sediment nitrogen of both submerged macrophytes and phytoplankton sources exhibited significant increasing trends during the past 50years. In contrast, soil and fertilizer sources showed a significant decreasing trend from 1990 to 2010. According to the changing trend of N2-fixing phytoplankton, changes of temperature and sunshine duration accounted for at least 43% of the trend in the sediment nitrogen enrichment over the past 50years. Regression analysis of the climatic factors on nitrogen sources showed that the contributions of precipitation, temperature, and sunshine duration to the variations in sediment nitrogen sources ranged from 18.5% to 60.3%. The study demonstrates that the mixing model provides a robust method for calculating the contribution of multiple nitrogen sources in sediment, and this study also suggests that N2-fixing phytoplankton could be regarded as an important response factor for assessing the impacts of climate change on nitrogen enrichment.}, }
@article {pmid25862690, year = {2015}, author = {McCarthy, M}, title = {Obama warns of climate change threat to public health.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {350}, number = {}, pages = {h1947}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.h1947}, pmid = {25862690}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S./*economics/organization &amp; administration ; *Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; Environmental Health/*economics/organization &amp; administration ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Policy ; Health Priorities ; Humans ; Politics ; Private Sector ; *Public Health/economics ; Public Sector ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid25859320, year = {2015}, author = {Brown, JL and Yoder, AD}, title = {Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {6}, pages = {1131-1142}, pmid = {25859320}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.}, }
@article {pmid25858027, year = {2015}, author = {Wu, D and Zhao, X and Liang, S and Zhou, T and Huang, K and Tang, B and Zhao, W}, title = {Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {9}, pages = {3520-3531}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12945}, pmid = {25858027}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Linear Models ; *Models, Biological ; Plant Development ; Rain ; Snow ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time-lag effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25857843, year = {2015}, author = {Chaianunporn, T and Hovestadt, T}, title = {Evolutionary responses to climate change in parasitic systems.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {2905-2916}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12944}, pmid = {25857843}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Parasites ; Symbiosis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Species may respond to climate change in many ecological and evolutionary ways. In this simulation study, we focus on the concurrent evolution of three traits in response to climate change, namely dispersal probability, temperature tolerance (or niche width), and temperature preference (optimal habitat). More specifically, we consider evolutionary responses in host species involved in different types of interaction, that is parasitism or commensalism, and for low or high costs of a temperature tolerance-fertility trade-off (cost of generalization). We find that host species potentially evolve all three traits simultaneously in response to increasing temperature but that the evolutionary response interacts and may be compensatory depending on the conditions. The evolutionary adjustment of temperature preference is slower in the parasitism than in commensalism scenario. Parasitism, in turn, selects for higher temperature tolerance and increased dispersal. High costs for temperature tolerance (i.e. generalization) restrict evolution of tolerance and thus lead to a faster response in temperature preference than that observed under low costs. These results emphasize the possible role of biotic interactions and the importance of 'multidimensional' evolutionary responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25857625, year = {2015}, author = {Noonan, MJ and Rahman, MA and Newman, C and Buesching, CD and Macdonald, DW}, title = {Avoiding verisimilitude when modelling ecological responses to climate change: the influence of weather conditions on trapping efficiency in European badgers (Meles meles).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {3575-3585}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12942}, pmid = {25857625}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; England ; Feeding Behavior ; Female ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Mustelidae/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The signal for climate change effects can be abstruse; consequently, interpretations of evidence must avoid verisimilitude, or else misattribution of causality could compromise policy decisions. Examining climatic effects on wild animal population dynamics requires ability to trap, observe or photograph and to recapture study individuals consistently. In this regard, we use 19 years of data (1994-2012), detailing the life histories on 1179 individual European badgers over 3288 (re-) trapping events, to test whether trapping efficiency was associated with season, weather variables (both contemporaneous and time lagged), body-condition index (BCI) and trapping efficiency (TE). PCA factor loadings demonstrated that TE was affected significantly by temperature and precipitation, as well as time lags in these variables. From multi-model inference, BCI was the principal driver of TE, where badgers in good condition were less likely to be trapped. Our analyses exposed that this was enacted mechanistically via weather variables driving BCI, affecting TE. Notably, the very conditions that militated for poor trapping success have been associated with actual survival and population abundance benefits in badgers. Using these findings to parameterize simulations, projecting best-/worst-case scenario weather conditions and BCI resulted in 8.6% ± 4.9 SD difference in seasonal TE, leading to a potential 55.0% population abundance under-estimation under the worst-case scenario; 38.6% over-estimation under the best case. Interestingly, simulations revealed that while any single trapping session might prove misrepresentative of the true population abundance, due to weather effects, prolonging capture-mark-recapture studies under sub-optimal conditions decreased the accuracy of population estimates significantly. We also use these projection scenarios to explore how weather could impact government-led trapping of badgers in the UK, in relation to TB management. We conclude that population monitoring must be calibrated against the likelihood that weather conditions could be altering trap success directly, and therefore biasing model design.}, }
@article {pmid25855454, year = {2015}, author = {Schuur, EA and McGuire, AD and Schädel, C and Grosse, G and Harden, JW and Hayes, DJ and Hugelius, G and Koven, CD and Kuhry, P and Lawrence, DM and Natali, SM and Olefeldt, D and Romanovsky, VE and Schaefer, K and Turetsky, MR and Treat, CC and Vonk, JE}, title = {Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {520}, number = {7546}, pages = {171-179}, pmid = {25855454}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Feedback ; Freezing ; Methane/analysis ; Permafrost/*chemistry ; Seawater/chemistry ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid25854203, year = {2015}, author = {Jesus, JM and Danko, AS and Fiúza, A and Borges, MT}, title = {Phytoremediation of salt-affected soils: a review of processes, applicability, and the impact of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {22}, number = {9}, pages = {6511-6525}, pmid = {25854203}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Biodegradation, Environmental ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Plant Development/drug effects ; *Plants/chemistry ; *Salinity ; Sodium Chloride/*isolation &amp; purification ; Soil/*chemistry ; Soil Pollutants/*isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {Soil salinization affects 1-10 billion ha worldwide, threatening the agricultural production needed to feed the ever increasing world population. Phytoremediation may be a cost-effective option for the remediation of these soils. This review analyzes the viability of using phytoremediation for salt-affected soils and explores the remedial mechanisms involved. In addition, it specifically addresses the debate over plant indirect (via soil cation exchange enhancement) or direct (via uptake) role in salt remediation. Analysis of experimental data for electrical conductivity (ECe) + sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) reduction and plant salt uptake showed a similar removal efficiency between salt phytoremediation and other treatment options, with the added potential for phytoextraction under non-leaching conditions. A focus is also given on recent studies that indicate potential pathways for increased salt phytoextraction, co-treatment with other contaminants, and phytoremediation applicability for salt flow control. Finally, this work also details the predicted effects of climate change on soil salinization and on treatment options. The synergetic effects of extreme climate events and salinization are a challenging obstacle for future phytoremediation applications, which will require additional and multi-disciplinary research efforts.}, }
@article {pmid25851142, year = {2015}, author = {Dalmaris, E and Ramalho, CE and Poot, P and Veneklaas, EJ and Byrne, M}, title = {A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {116}, number = {6}, pages = {941-952}, pmid = {25851142}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; Ecosystem ; Eucalyptus/genetics/*physiology ; *Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Haplotypes ; Models, Theoretical ; Phylogeography ; South Australia ; Trees ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia.<br><br>METHODS: Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM).<br><br>KEY RESULTS: A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had contracted at the LGM. This signature of contraction from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the semi-arid margin of the range, and indicates low capacity to tolerate forecast climatic change. Identification of a paleo-historical context for current tree decline enables conservation interventions to focus on maintaining genetic diversity, which provides the evolutionary potential for adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25851135, year = {2015}, author = {Primack, RB and Laube, J and Gallinat, AS and Menzel, A}, title = {From observations to experiments in phenology research: investigating climate change impacts on trees and shrubs using dormant twigs.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {116}, number = {6}, pages = {889-897}, pmid = {25851135}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; Introduced Species ; Phenotype ; Photoperiod ; Plant Leaves/*physiology/radiation effects ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees/*physiology/radiation effects ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate change is advancing the leaf-out times of many plant species and mostly extending the growing season in temperate ecosystems. Laboratory experiments using twig cuttings from woody plant species present an affordable, easily replicated approach to investigate the relative importance of factors such as winter chilling, photoperiod, spring warming and frost tolerance on the leafing-out times of plant communities. This Viewpoint article demonstrates how the results of these experiments deepen our understanding beyond what is possible via analyses of remote sensing and field observation data, and can be used to improve climate change forecasts of shifts in phenology, ecosystem processes and ecological interactions.<br><br>SCOPE: The twig method involves cutting dormant twigs from trees, shrubs and vines on a single date or at intervals over the course of the winter and early spring, placing them in containers of water in controlled environments, and regularly recording leaf-out, flowering or other phenomena. Prior to or following leaf-out or flowering, twigs may be assigned to treatment groups for experiments involving temperature, photoperiod, frost, humidity and more. Recent studies using these methods have shown that winter chilling requirements and spring warming strongly affect leaf-out and flowering times of temperate trees and shrubs, whereas photoperiod requirements are less important than previously thought for most species. Invasive plant species have weaker winter chilling requirements than native species in temperate ecosystems, and species that leaf-out early in the season have greater frost tolerance than later leafing species.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This methodology could be extended to investigate additional drivers of leaf-out phenology, leaf senescence in the autumn, and other phenomena, and could be a useful tool for education and outreach. Additional ecosystems, such as boreal, southern hemisphere and sub-tropical forests, could also be investigated using dormant twigs to determine the drivers of leaf-out times and how these ecosystems will be affected by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25851129, year = {2015}, author = {King, B and Lee, MS}, title = {Epoch-based likelihood models reveal no evidence for accelerated evolution of viviparity in squamate reptiles in response to cenozoic climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental zoology. Part B, Molecular and developmental evolution}, volume = {324}, number = {6}, pages = {525-531}, doi = {10.1002/jez.b.22616}, pmid = {25851129}, issn = {1552-5015}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Female ; Likelihood Functions ; Lizards/*classification/physiology ; Oviparity ; Phylogeny ; Snakes/*classification/physiology ; Viviparity, Nonmammalian ; }, abstract = {A broad scale analysis of the evolution of viviparity across nearly 4,000 species of squamates revealed that origins increase in frequency toward the present, raising the question of whether rates of change have accelerated. We here use simulations to show that the increased frequency is within the range expected given that the number of squamate lineages also increases with time. Novel, epoch-based methods implemented in BEAST (which allow rates of discrete character evolution to vary across time-slices) also give congruent results, with recent epochs having very similar rates to older epochs. Thus, contrary to expectations, there was no accelerated burst of origins of viviparity in response to global cooling during the Cenozoic or glacial cycles during the Plio-Pleistocene. However, if one accepts the conventional view that viviparity is more likely to evolve than to be lost, and also the evidence here that viviparity has evolved with similar regularity throughout the last 200 Ma, then the absence of large, ancient clades of viviparous squamates (analogs to therian mammals) requires explanation. Viviparous squamate lineages might be more prone to extinction than are oviparous lineages, due to their prevalance at high elevations and latitudes and thus greater susceptibility to climate fluctuations. If so, the directional bias in character evolution would be offset by the bias in extinction rates.}, }
@article {pmid25847719, year = {2016}, author = {Collins, LC and Nerlich, B}, title = {How certain is 'certain'? Exploring how the English-language media reported the use of calibrated language in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {656-673}, doi = {10.1177/0963662515579626}, pmid = {25847719}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Knowledge ; Language ; *Mass Media ; *Perception ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {This article presents findings from an analysis of English-language media reports following the publication of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report in September 2013. Focusing on the way they reported the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's use of 'calibrated' language, we find that of 1906 articles relating to the issuing of the report only 272 articles (14.27%) convey the use of a deliberate and systematic verbal scale. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's carefully calibrated language was rarely discussed or explicated, but in some instances scientists, political actors or journalists would attempt to contextualise or elaborate on the reported findings by using analogies to other scientific principles or examples of taking action despite uncertainty. We consider those analogies in terms of their efficacy in communicating (un)certainty.}, }
@article {pmid25846172, year = {2015}, author = {Krueger, J and Biedrzycki, P and Hoverter, SP}, title = {Human health impacts of climate change: implications for the practice and law of public health.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {43 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {79-82}, doi = {10.1111/jlme.12223}, pmid = {25846172}, issn = {1748-720X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid25846057, year = {2015}, author = {Keppel, G and Kavousi, J}, title = {Effective climate change refugia for coral reefs.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {2829-2830}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12936}, pmid = {25846057}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; *Refugium ; }, }
@article {pmid25837916, year = {2015}, author = {Hannah, L and Flint, L and Syphard, AD and Moritz, MA and Buckley, LB and McCullough, IM}, title = {Place and process in conservation planning for climate change: a reply to Keppel and Wardell-Johnson.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {234-235}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2015.03.008}, pmid = {25837916}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Microclimate ; *Plant Dispersal ; }, }
@article {pmid25837772, year = {2015}, author = {Elliott, M and Borja, &#xc1; and McQuatters-Gollop, A and Mazik, K and Birchenough, S and Andersen, JH and Painting, S and Peck, M}, title = {Force majeure: Will climate change affect our ability to attain Good Environmental Status for marine biodiversity?.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {95}, number = {1}, pages = {7-27}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.03.015}, pmid = {25837772}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Policy ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires that Good Environmental Status (GEnS), is achieved for European seas by 2020. These may deviate from GEnS, its 11 Descriptors, targets and baselines, due to endogenic managed pressures (from activities within an area) and externally due to exogenic unmanaged pressures (e.g. climate change). Conceptual models detail the likely or perceived changes expected on marine biodiversity and GEnS Descriptors in the light of climate change. We emphasise that marine management has to accommodate 'shifting baselines' caused by climate change particularly during GEnS monitoring, assessment and management and 'unbounded boundaries' given the migration and dispersal of highly-mobile species. We suggest climate change may prevent GEnS being met, but Member States may rebut legal challenges by claiming that this is outside its control, force majeure or due to 'natural causes' (Article 14 of the MSFD). The analysis is relevant to management of other global seas.}, }
@article {pmid25837328, year = {2016}, author = {Eidson, M and Clancy, KA and Birkhead, GS}, title = {Public Health Climate Change Adaptation Planning Using Stakeholder Feedback.}, journal = {Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {E11-9}, doi = {10.1097/PHH.0000000000000243}, pmid = {25837328}, issn = {1550-5022}, support = {5U38HM000414/HM/NCHM CDC HHS/United States ; 5UE1EH000737/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Administrative Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; *Feedback ; *Health Planning ; Humans ; New York ; *Public Health ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {CONTEXT: Public health climate change adaptation planning is an urgent priority requiring stakeholder feedback. The 10 Essential Public Health Services can be applied to adaptation activities.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To develop a state health department climate and health adaptation plan as informed by stakeholder feedback.<br><br>DESIGN: With Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funding, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) implemented a 2010-2013 climate and health planning process, including 7 surveys on perceptions and adaptation priorities.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: New York State Department of Health program managers participated in initial (n = 41, denominator unknown) and follow-up (72.2%) needs assessments. Surveillance system information was collected from 98.1% of surveillance system managers. For adaptation prioritization surveys, participants included 75.4% of NYSDOH leaders; 60.3% of local health departments (LHDs); and 53.7% of other stakeholders representing environmental, governmental, health, community, policy, academic, and business organizations. Interviews were also completed with 38.9% of other stakeholders.<br><br>RESULTS: In 2011 surveys, 34.1% of state health program directors believed that climate change would impact their program priorities. However, 84.6% of state health surveillance system managers provided ideas for using databases for climate and health monitoring/surveillance. In 2012 surveys, 46.5% of state health leaders agreed they had sufficient information about climate and health compared to 17.1% of LHDs (P = .0046) and 40.9% of other stakeholders (nonsignificant difference). Significantly fewer (P < .0001) LHDs (22.9%) were incorporating or considering incorporating climate and health into planning compared to state health leaders (55.8%) and other stakeholders (68.2%). Stakeholder groups agreed on the 4 highest priority adaptation categories including core public health activities such as surveillance, coordination/collaboration, education, and policy development.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Feedback from diverse stakeholders was utilized by NYSDOH to develop its Climate and Health Strategic Map in 2013. The CDC Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework and funding provides a collaborative model for state climate and health adaptation planning.}, }
@article {pmid25837201, year = {2015}, author = {Sundseth, K and Pacyna, JM and Banel, A and Pacyna, EG and Rautio, A}, title = {Climate change impacts on environmental and human exposure to mercury in the arctic.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {3579-3599}, pmid = {25837201}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects/*analysis/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis/toxicity ; Humans ; Mercury/*analysis/toxicity ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure.}, }
@article {pmid25835552, year = {2015}, author = {Cascella, K and Jollivet, D and Papot, C and Léger, N and Corre, E and Ravaux, J and Clark, MS and Toullec, JY}, title = {Diversification, evolution and sub-functionalization of 70kDa heat-shock proteins in two sister species of antarctic krill: differences in thermal habitats, responses and implications under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {e0121642}, pmid = {25835552}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Amino Acid Sequence ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Arthropod Proteins/*genetics/metabolism ; Biological Evolution ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Euphausiacea/classification/*genetics/metabolism ; Gene Expression ; HSP70 Heat-Shock Proteins/*genetics/metabolism ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Multigene Family ; Phylogeny ; Sequence Alignment ; Sequence Homology, Amino Acid ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: A comparative thermal tolerance study was undertaken on two sister species of Euphausiids (Antarctic krills) Euphausia superba and Euphausia crystallorophias. Both are essential components of the Southern Ocean ecosystem, but occupy distinct environmental geographical locations with slightly different temperature regimes. They therefore provide a useful model system for the investigation of adaptations to thermal tolerance.<br><br>METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING: Initial CTmax studies showed that E. superba was slightly more thermotolerant than E. crystallorophias. Five Hsp70 mRNAs were characterized from the RNAseq data of both species and subsequent expression kinetics studies revealed notable differences in induction of each of the 5 orthologues between the two species, with E. crystallorophias reacting more rapidly than E. superba. Furthermore, analyses conducted to estimate the evolutionary rates and selection strengths acting on each gene tended to support the hypothesis that diversifying selection has contributed to the diversification of this gene family, and led to the selective relaxation on the inducible C form with its possible loss of function in the two krill species.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivity of the epipelagic species E. crystallorophias to temperature variations and/or its adaptation to cold is enhanced when compared with its sister species, E. superba. These results indicate that ice krill could be the first of the two species to be impacted by the warming of coastal waters of the Austral ocean in the coming years due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25832390, year = {2015}, author = {Victor, DG}, title = {Climate change: Embed the social sciences in climate policy.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {520}, number = {7545}, pages = {27-29}, pmid = {25832390}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Advisory Committees/*organization &amp; administration ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Consensus ; Environmental Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*trends ; *Policy Making ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Research Report ; Social Sciences/*trends ; Time Factors ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid25832384, year = {2015}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Global-warming limit of 2 °C hangs in the balance.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {520}, number = {7545}, pages = {14-15}, doi = {10.1038/nature.2015.17202}, pmid = {25832384}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Developed Countries/economics ; Developing Countries/economics ; *Environmental Policy ; Global Warming/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; *Goals ; International Cooperation ; *Policy Making ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid25829537, year = {2015}, author = {Mann, ME and Gleick, PH}, title = {Climate change and California drought in the 21st century.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {13}, pages = {3858-3859}, pmid = {25829537}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Droughts ; *Global Warming ; }, }
@article {pmid25829290, year = {2015}, author = {Kadiyala, MD and Nedumaran, S and Singh, P and S, C and Irshad, MA and Bantilan, MC}, title = {An integrated crop model and GIS decision support system for assisting agronomic decision making under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {521-522}, number = {}, pages = {123-134}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.097}, pmid = {25829290}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Decision Making ; Droughts ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Forecasting ; *Geographic Information Systems ; India ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The semi-arid tropical (SAT) regions of India are suffering from low productivity which may be further aggravated by anticipated climate change. The present study analyzes the spatial variability of climate change impacts on groundnut yields in the Anantapur district of India and examines the relative contribution of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a web based decision support tool that integrates crop simulation model and Geographical Information System (GIS) was developed to assist agronomic decision making and this tool can be scalable to any location and crop. The climate change projections of five global climate models (GCMs) relative to the 1980-2010 baseline for Anantapur district indicates an increase in rainfall activity to the tune of 10.6 to 25% during Mid-century period (2040-69) with RCP 8.5. The GCMs also predict warming exceeding 1.4 to 2.4°C by 2069 in the study region. The spatial crop responses to the projected climate indicate a decrease in groundnut yields with four GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) and a contrasting 6.3% increase with the GCM, GFDL-ESM2M. The simulation studies using CROPGRO-Peanut model reveals that groundnut yields can be increased on average by 1.0%, 5.0%, 14.4%, and 20.2%, by adopting adaptation options of heat tolerance, drought tolerant cultivars, supplemental irrigation and a combination of drought tolerance cultivar and supplemental irrigation respectively. The spatial patterns of relative benefits of adaptation options were geographically different and the greatest benefits can be achieved by adopting new cultivars having drought tolerance and with the application of one supplemental irrigation at 60days after sowing.}, }
@article {pmid25829289, year = {2015}, author = {Schröder, W and Nickel, S and Jenssen, M and Riediger, J}, title = {Methodology to assess and map the potential development of forest ecosystems exposed to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition: A pilot study in Germany.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {521-522}, number = {}, pages = {108-122}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.048}, pmid = {25829289}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Forests ; Germany ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Pilot Projects ; }, abstract = {A methodology for mapping ecosystems and their potential development under climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition was developed using examples from Germany. The methodology integrated data on vegetation, soil, climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition. These data were used to classify ecosystem types regarding six ecological functions and interrelated structures. Respective data covering 1961-1990 were used for reference. The assessment of functional and structural integrity relies on comparing a current or future state with an ecosystem type-specific reference. While current functions and structures of ecosystems were quantified by measurements, potential future developments were projected by geochemical soil modelling and data from a regional climate change model. The ecosystem types referenced the potential natural vegetation and were mapped using data on current tree species coverage and land use. In this manner, current ecosystem types were derived, which were related to data on elevation, soil texture, and climate for the years 1961-1990. These relations were quantified by Classification and Regression Trees, which were used to map the spatial patterns of ecosystem type clusters for 1961-1990. The climate data for these years were subsequently replaced by the results of a regional climate model for 1991-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. For each of these periods, one map of ecosystem type clusters was produced and evaluated with regard to the development of areal coverage of ecosystem type clusters over time. This evaluation of the structural aspects of ecological integrity at the national level was added by projecting potential future values of indicators for ecological functions at the site level by using the Very Simple Dynamic soil modelling technique based on climate data and two scenarios of nitrogen deposition as input. The results were compared to the reference and enabled an evaluation of site-specific ecosystem changes over time which proved to be both, positive and negative.}, }
@article {pmid25828794, year = {2015}, author = {Liancourt, P and Boldgiv, B and Song, DS and Spence, LA and Helliker, BR and Petraitis, PS and Casper, BB}, title = {Leaf-trait plasticity and species vulnerability to climate change in a Mongolian steppe.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {9}, pages = {3489-3498}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12934}, pmid = {25828794}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Grassland ; Models, Biological ; Mongolia ; Phenotype ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to modify plant assemblages in ways that will have major consequences for ecosystem functions. How climate change will affect community composition will depend on how individual species respond, which is likely related to interspecific differences in functional traits. The extraordinary plasticity of some plant traits is typically neglected in assessing how climate change will affect different species. In the Mongolian steppe, we examined whether leaf functional traits under ambient conditions and whether plasticity in these traits under altered climate could explain climate-induced biomass responses in 12 co-occurring plant species. We experimentally created three probable climate change scenarios and used a model selection procedure to determine the set of baseline traits or plasticity values that best explained biomass response. Under all climate change scenarios, plasticity for at least one leaf trait correlated with change in species performance, while functional leaf-trait values in ambient conditions did not. We demonstrate that trait plasticity could play a critical role in vulnerability of species to a rapidly changing environment. Plasticity should be considered when examining how climate change will affect plant performance, species' niche spaces, and ecological processes that depend on plant community composition.}, }
@article {pmid25828407, year = {2015}, author = {Selbig, WR}, title = {Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {521-522}, number = {}, pages = {11-18}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.072}, pmid = {25828407}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Rivers/*chemistry ; *Temperature ; Trout/*physiology ; Wisconsin ; }, abstract = {The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2°C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery.}, }
@article {pmid25827836, year = {2015}, author = {Thompson, LJ and Brown, M and Downs, CT}, title = {The potential effects of climate-change-associated temperature increases on the metabolic rate of a small Afrotropical bird.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {218}, number = {Pt 10}, pages = {1504-1512}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.116509}, pmid = {25827836}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; Basal Metabolism ; Body Temperature ; Body Weight ; Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Passeriformes/anatomy &amp; histology/*metabolism ; South Africa ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Studies have only recently begun to underline the importance of including data on the physiological flexibility of a species when modelling its vulnerability to extinction from climate change. We investigated the effects of a 4°C increase in ambient temperature (Ta), similar to that predicted for southern Africa by the year 2080, on certain physiological variables of a 10-12 g passerine bird endemic to southern Africa, the Cape white-eye Zosterops virens. There was no significant difference in resting metabolism, body mass and intraperitoneal body temperature between birds housed indoors at 4°C above outside ambient temperature and those housed indoors at outside ambient temperature. We conclude that the physiological flexibility of Cape white-eyes will aid them in coping with the 4°C increase predicted for their range by 2080.}, }
@article {pmid25826313, year = {2015}, author = {Bosco, A and Rinaldi, L and Musella, V and Amadesi, A and Cringoli, G}, title = {Outbreak of acute fasciolosis in sheep farms in a Mediterranean area arising as a possible consequence of climate change.}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {319-324}, doi = {10.4081/gh.2015.354}, pmid = {25826313}, issn = {1970-7096}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Fascioliasis/*veterinary ; Feces/parasitology ; Geographic Information Systems ; Italy/epidemiology ; Sheep ; *Spatial Analysis ; }, abstract = {The objective of the present study was to investigate whether climate change in recent years have influenced the onset of acute outbreaks of Fasciola hepatica in ovine farms in southern Italy. In May-June 2014, a severe outbreak of F. hepatica occurred in three sheep farms in the Campania region. Clinical, coprological and necroscopic examinations were performed. Morbidity and mortality due to F. hepatica were 3-67% and 3-50%, respectively. Coprological examinations showed high values of F. hepatica eggs per gram (EPG) of faeces (860-1,240). Similarly, high adult parasitic burdens were found in animals that had sucombed (124-426 flukes). The study area was georeferenced and climatic data (temperature, humidity, days of rain and total amount of rainfall) were recorded at four georeferenced meterological stations in the study area. Montly data were processed and analyzed for the period 2000-2013 to evaluate the change of the climatic parameters during these years. The results show that there was a significant increase (P<0.001) of temperature, increased rainfall and increase in the number of rainy days compared to previous years. In addition to the outbreak reported here, we discuss the potential effects of climate change on the epidemiology of F. hepatica and the implications for sheep farming in the Mediterranean area.}, }
@article {pmid25825727, year = {2015}, author = {Moffitt, SE and Hill, TM and Roopnarine, PD and Kennett, JP}, title = {Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {15}, pages = {4684-4689}, pmid = {25825727}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Annelida/physiology ; Arthropods/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Echinodermata/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Fossils ; Geologic Sediments ; *Global Warming ; Invertebrates/classification/*physiology ; Mollusca/physiology ; Oxygen/metabolism ; Oxygen Isotopes ; Pacific Ocean ; Population Density ; Radiometric Dating ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L(-1) [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid25822534, year = {2015}, author = {Fujisawa, M and Kobayashi, K and Johnston, P and New, M}, title = {What drives farmers to make top-down or bottom-up adaptation to climate change and fluctuations? A comparative study on 3 cases of apple farming in Japan and South Africa.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {e0120563}, pmid = {25822534}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological/*physiology ; Agriculture/methods ; Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; Decision Making/physiology ; Farmers/*psychology ; Japan ; Malus ; Risk ; South Africa ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. Farmers have been exposed to multiple stressors including climate change, and they have managed to adapt to those risks. The adaptation actions undertaken by farmers and their decision making are, however, only poorly understood. By studying adaptation practices undertaken by apple farmers in three regions: Nagano and Kazuno in Japan and Elgin in South Africa, we categorize the adaptation actions into two types: farmer initiated bottom-up adaptation and institution led top-down adaptation. We found that the driver which differentiates the type of adaptation likely adopted was strongly related to the farmers' characteristics, particularly their dependence on the institutions, e.g. the farmers' cooperative, in selling their products. The farmers who rely on the farmers' cooperative for their sales are likely to adopt the institution-led adaptation, whereas the farmers who have established their own sales channels tend to start innovative actions by bottom-up. We further argue that even though the two types have contrasting features, the combinations of the both types of adaptations could lead to more successful adaptation particularly in agriculture. This study also emphasizes that more farm-level studies for various crops and regions are warranted to provide substantial feedbacks to adaptation policy.}, }
@article {pmid25821073, year = {2015}, author = {Lopes, MS and El-Basyoni, I and Baenziger, PS and Singh, S and Royo, C and Ozbek, K and Aktas, H and Ozer, E and Ozdemir, F and Manickavelu, A and Ban, T and Vikram, P}, title = {Exploiting genetic diversity from landraces in wheat breeding for adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {66}, number = {12}, pages = {3477-3486}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erv122}, pmid = {25821073}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Breeding/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Genetic Variation ; Triticum/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Climate change has generated unpredictability in the timing and amount of rain, as well as extreme heat and cold spells that have affected grain yields worldwide and threaten food security. Sources of specific adaptation related to drought and heat, as well as associated breeding of genetic traits, will contribute to maintaining grain yields in dry and warm years. Increased crop photosynthesis and biomass have been achieved particularly through disease resistance and healthy leaves. Similarly, sources of drought and heat adaptation through extended photosynthesis and increased biomass would also greatly benefit crop improvement. Wheat landraces have been cultivated for thousands of years under the most extreme environmental conditions. They have also been cultivated in lower input farming systems for which adaptation traits, particularly those that increase the duration of photosynthesis, have been conserved. Landraces are a valuable source of genetic diversity and specific adaptation to local environmental conditions according to their place of origin. Evidence supports the hypothesis that landraces can provide sources of increased biomass and thousand kernel weight, both important traits for adaptation to tolerate drought and heat. Evaluation of wheat landraces stored in gene banks with highly beneficial untapped diversity and sources of stress adaptation, once characterized, should also be used for wheat improvement. Unified development of databases and promotion of data sharing among physiologists, pathologists, wheat quality scientists, national programmes, and breeders will greatly benefit wheat improvement for adaptation to climate change worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid25820432, year = {2015}, author = {Donelson, JM and Munday, PL}, title = {Transgenerational plasticity mitigates the impact of global warming to offspring sex ratios.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {2954-2962}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12912}, pmid = {25820432}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Female ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Male ; Reproduction ; *Sex Ratio ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming poses a threat to organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination because it can affect operational sex ratios. Using a multigenerational experiment with a marine fish, we provide the first evidence that parents developing from early life at elevated temperatures can adjust their offspring gender through nongenetic and nonbehavioural means. However, this adjustment was not possible when parents reproduced, but did not develop, at elevated temperatures. Complete restoration of the offspring sex ratio occurred when parents developed at 1.5 °C above the present-day average temperature for one generation. However, only partial improvement in the sex ratio occurred at 3.0 °C above average conditions, even after two generations, suggesting a limitation to transgenerational plasticity when developmental temperature is substantially increased. This study highlights the potential for transgenerational plasticity to ameliorate some impacts of climate change and that development from early life may be essential for expression of transgenerational plasticity in some traits.}, }
@article {pmid25816171, year = {2015}, author = {Withen, P}, title = {Climate change and wildland firefighter health and safety.}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {577-584}, doi = {10.2190/NS.24.4.i}, pmid = {25816171}, issn = {1541-3772}, mesh = {Accidents, Occupational/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Firefighters ; Fires/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Occupational Exposure/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Occupational Health ; Occupational Injuries/epidemiology ; United States ; *Wilderness ; }, abstract = {The author examines how climate change is impacting wildland firefighters. Climate change has made wildland fires more frequent and more intense. The increase in frequency and intensity of fires has pushed the number of fatalities and injuries higher in recent decades. The most common hazards on fires follow the trend of fire in general in that these hazards become more frequent and intense. Burnovers, heat exhaustion, tree hazards, and many other common fire hazards are more likely. The fire suppression agencies are making every effort to improve health and safety on fires by improving communication, weather forecasting, mapping, fire shelters, decision making and more. Despite these efforts, wildfires are becoming ever more hazardous because of climate change and the increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires.}, }
@article {pmid25812121, year = {2015}, author = {Myers, TA and Maibach, E and Peters, E and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Simple messages help set the record straight about scientific agreement on human-caused climate change: the results of two experiments.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {e0120985}, pmid = {25812121}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Human-caused climate change is happening; nearly all climate scientists are convinced of this basic fact according to surveys of experts and reviews of the peer-reviewed literature. Yet, among the American public, there is widespread misunderstanding of this scientific consensus. In this paper, we report results from two experiments, conducted with national samples of American adults, that tested messages designed to convey the high level of agreement in the climate science community about human-caused climate change. The first experiment tested hypotheses about providing numeric versus non-numeric assertions concerning the level of scientific agreement. We found that numeric statements resulted in higher estimates of the scientific agreement. The second experiment tested the effect of eliciting respondents' estimates of scientific agreement prior to presenting them with a statement about the level of scientific agreement. Participants who estimated the level of agreement prior to being shown the corrective statement gave higher estimates of the scientific consensus than respondents who were not asked to estimate in advance, indicating that incorporating an "estimation and reveal" technique into public communication about scientific consensus may be effective. The interaction of messages with political ideology was also tested, and demonstrated that messages were approximately equally effective among liberals and conservatives. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid25810084, year = {2015}, author = {Padalia, H and Srivastava, V and Kushwaha, SP}, title = {How climate change might influence the potential distribution of weed, bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens)?.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {187}, number = {4}, pages = {210}, pmid = {25810084}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Africa ; Animals ; Australia ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Entropy ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; Hyptis/*physiology ; Introduced Species ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Invasive species and climate change are considered as the most serious global environmental threats. In this study, we investigated the influence of projected global climate change on the potential distribution of one of the world's most successful invader weed, bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit.). We used spatial data on 20 environmental variables at a grid resolution of 5 km, and 564 presence records of bushmint from its native and introduced range. The climatic profiles of the native and invaded sites were analyzed in a multi-variate space in order to examine the differences in the position of climatic niches. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential distribution of bushmint using presence records from entire range (invaded and native) along with 14 eco-physiologically relevant predictor variables. Subsequently, the trained MaxEnt model was fed with Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) climate projections to predict potential distribution of bushmint by the year 2050 under A2a and B2a emission scenarios. MaxEnt predictions were very accurate with an Area Under Curve (AUC) value of 0.95. The results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicated that climatic niche of bushmint on the invaded sites is not entirely similar to its climatic niche in the native range. A vast area spread between 34 ° 02' north and 28 ° 18' south latitudes in tropics was predicted climatically suitable for bushmint. West and middle Africa, tropical southeast Asia, and northern Australia were predicted at high invasion risk. Study indicates enlargement, retreat, or shift across bushmint's invasion range under the influence of climate change. Globally, bushmint's potential distribution might shrink in future with more shrinkage for A2a scenario than B2a. The study outcome has immense potential for undertaking effective preventive/control measures and long-term management strategies for regions/countries, which are at higher risk of bushmint's invasion.}, }
@article {pmid25809307, year = {2015}, author = {Sterk, A and Schets, FM and de Roda Husman, AM and de Nijs, T and Schijven, JF}, title = {Effect of Climate Change on the Concentration and Associated Risks of Vibrio Spp. in Dutch Recreational Waters.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {35}, number = {9}, pages = {1717-1729}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12365}, pmid = {25809307}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Bacterial Load ; Bathing Beaches ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Incidence ; Likelihood Functions ; Netherlands/epidemiology ; Recreation ; Regression Analysis ; Risk Assessment/methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Seasons ; Vibrio/*isolation &amp; purification/*pathogenicity ; Vibrio Infections/*epidemiology ; *Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Currently, the number of reported cases of recreational- water-related Vibrio illness in the Netherlands is low. However, a notable higher incidence of Vibrio infections has been observed in warm summers. In the future, such warm summers are expected to occur more often, resulting in enhanced water temperatures favoring Vibrio growth. Quantitative information on the increase in concentration of Vibrio spp. in recreational water under climate change scenarios is lacking. In this study, data on occurrence of Vibrio spp. at six different bathing sites in the Netherlands (2009-2012) were used to derive an empirical formula to predict the Vibrio concentration as a function of temperature, salinity, and pH. This formula was used to predict the effects of increased temperatures in climate change scenarios on Vibrio concentrations. For Vibrio parahaemolyticus, changes in illness risks associated with the changed concentrations were calculated as well. For an average temperature increase of 3.7 °C, these illness risks were calculated to be two to three times higher than in the current situation. Current illness risks were, varying per location, on average between 10(-4) and 10(-2) per person for an entire summer. In situations where water temperatures reached maximum values, illness risks are estimated to be up to 10(-2) and 10(-1) . If such extreme situations occur more often during future summers, increased numbers of ill bathers or bathing-water-related illness outbreaks may be expected.}, }
@article {pmid25808458, year = {2015}, author = {Medlock, JM and Leach, SA}, title = {Effect of climate change on vector-borne disease risk in the UK.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {721-730}, doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(15)70091-5}, pmid = {25808458}, issn = {1474-4457}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*growth &amp; development ; Protozoan Infections/*epidemiology ; Risk Assessment ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; Virus Diseases/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {During the early part of the 21st century, an unprecedented change in the status of vector-borne disease in Europe has occurred. Invasive mosquitoes have become widely established across Europe, with subsequent transmission and outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya virus. Malaria has re-emerged in Greece, and West Nile virus has emerged throughout parts of eastern Europe. Tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, continue to increase, or, in the case of tick-borne encephalitis and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever viruses, have changed their geographical distribution. From a veterinary perspective, the emergence of Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses show that northern Europe is equally susceptible to transmission of vector-borne disease. These changes are in part due to increased globalisation, with intercontinental air travel and global shipping transport creating new opportunities for invasive vectors and pathogens. However, changes in vector distributions are being driven by climatic changes and changes in land use, infrastructure, and the environment. In this Review, we summarise the risks posed by vector-borne diseases in the present and the future from a UK perspective, and assess the likely effects of climate change and, where appropriate, climate-change adaptation strategies on vector-borne disease risk in the UK. Lessons from the outbreaks of West Nile virus in North America and chikungunya in the Caribbean emphasise the need to assess future vector-borne disease risks and prepare contingencies for future outbreaks. Ensuring that adaptation strategies for climate change do not inadvertently exacerbate risks should be a primary focus for decision makers.}, }
@article {pmid25806384, year = {2015}, author = {}, title = {......and link with global climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {91}, number = {1}, pages = {11}, pmid = {25806384}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Pacific Ocean ; *Wind ; }, }
@article {pmid25806382, year = {2015}, author = {}, title = {Alaska fish adjust to climate change by following the food.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {91}, number = {1}, pages = {11}, pmid = {25806382}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Alaska ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Feeding Behavior ; Fishes/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid25804451, year = {2015}, author = {Wiréhn, L and Danielsson, &#xc5; and Neset, TS}, title = {Assessment of composite index methods for agricultural vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {156}, number = {}, pages = {70-80}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.03.020}, pmid = {25804451}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {A common way of quantifying and communicating climate vulnerability is to calculate composite indices from indicators, visualizing these as maps. Inherent methodological uncertainties in vulnerability assessments, however, require greater attention. This study examines Swedish agricultural vulnerability to climate change, the aim being to review various indicator approaches for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and to evaluate differences in climate vulnerability depending on the weighting and summarizing methods. The reviewed methods are evaluated by being tested at the municipal level. Three weighting and summarizing methods, representative of climate vulnerability indices in general, are analysed. The results indicate that 34 of 36 method combinations differ significantly from each other. We argue that representing agricultural vulnerability in a single composite index might be insufficient to guide climate adaptation. We emphasize the need for further research into how to measure and visualize agricultural vulnerability and into how to communicate uncertainties in both data and methods.}, }
@article {pmid25803240, year = {2015}, author = {Rudokas, J and Miller, PJ and Trail, MA and Russell, AG}, title = {Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {49}, number = {8}, pages = {5170-5177}, doi = {10.1021/es505159z}, pmid = {25803240}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/analysis ; Carbon ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change ; Coal ; Databases, Factual ; Electricity ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Environment ; Industry ; *Nitrogen Oxides/analysis ; Power Plants ; *Sulfur Dioxide/analysis ; Taxes ; United States ; }, abstract = {We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.}, }
@article {pmid25801187, year = {2015}, author = {Kröel-Dulay, G and Ransijn, J and Schmidt, IK and Beier, C and De Angelis, P and de Dato, G and Dukes, JS and Emmett, B and Estiarte, M and Garadnai, J and Kongstad, J and Kovács-Láng, E and Larsen, KS and Liberati, D and Ogaya, R and Riis-Nielsen, T and Smith, AR and Sowerby, A and Tietema, A and Penuelas, J}, title = {Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {6682}, doi = {10.1038/ncomms7682}, pmid = {25801187}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Global Warming ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem, with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25798851, year = {2015}, author = {Ortega-Andrade, HM and Prieto-Torres, DA and Gómez-Lora, I and Lizcano, DJ}, title = {Ecological and geographical analysis of the distribution of the mountain tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: importance of protected areas in future scenarios of global warming.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {e0121137}, pmid = {25798851}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Ecosystem ; Ecuador ; Endangered Species/*trends ; *Global Warming ; Perissodactyla/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque's potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador.}, }
@article {pmid25798220, year = {2015}, author = {Bozinovic, F and Pörtner, HO}, title = {Physiological ecology meets climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {1025-1030}, pmid = {25798220}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {In this article, we pointed out that understanding the physiology of differential climate change effects on organisms is one of the many urgent challenges faced in ecology and evolutionary biology. We explore how physiological ecology can contribute to a holistic view of climate change impacts on organisms and ecosystems and their evolutionary responses. We suggest that theoretical and experimental efforts not only need to improve our understanding of thermal limits to organisms, but also to consider multiple stressors both on land and in the oceans. As an example, we discuss recent efforts to understand the effects of various global change drivers on aquatic ectotherms in the field that led to the development of the concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) as a framework integrating various drivers and linking organisational levels from ecosystem to organism, tissue, cell, and molecules. We suggest seven core objectives of a comprehensive research program comprising the interplay among physiological, ecological, and evolutionary approaches for both aquatic and terrestrial organisms. While studies of individual aspects are already underway in many laboratories worldwide, integration of these findings into conceptual frameworks is needed not only within one organism group such as animals but also across organism domains such as Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya. Indeed, development of unifying concepts is relevant for interpreting existing and future findings in a coherent way and for projecting the future ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on functional biodiversity. We also suggest that OCLTT may in the end and from an evolutionary point of view, be able to explain the limited thermal tolerance of metazoans when compared to other organisms.}, }
@article {pmid25796917, year = {2014}, author = {Xie, TT and Su, PX and Zhou, ZJ and Shan, LS}, title = {[Research progress on carbon sink function of agroforestry system under climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {10}, pages = {3039-3046}, pmid = {25796917}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; *Forestry ; Greenhouse Effect ; Soil ; Trees ; }, abstract = {As a land comprehensive utilization system, agroforestry system can absorb and fix CO2 effectively to increase carbon storage, and also reduces greenhouse effect convincingly while reaching the aim of harvest. The regulatory role in CO2 makes humans realize that agroforestry systems have significant superiority compared with single cropping systems, therefore, understanding the carbon sinks of different components in an agroforestry system and its influencing factors play an important role in studying global carbon cycle and accurate evaluation of carbon budget. This paper reviewed the concept and classification of agroforestry system, and then the carbon sequestration potentials of different components in agroforestry systems and influencing factors. It was concluded that the carbon sequestration rate of plants from different agroforestry systems in different regions are highly variable, ranging from 0.59 to 11.08 t C · hm(-2) · a(-1), and it is mainly influenced by climatic factors and the characteristics of agroforestry systems (species composition, tree density and stand age). The soil C sequestration of any agroforestry system is influenced by the amount and quality of biomass input provided by tree and nontree components of the system and the soil properties such as soil texture and soil structure. Overall the amount of carbon storage in any agroforestry system depends on the structure and function of its each component. The future studies should focus on the carbon sink functions of structurally optimized agroforestry systems, the temporal variation and spatial distribution pattern of carbon storage in agroforestry system and its carbon sequestration mechanism in a long time.}, }
@article {pmid25796897, year = {2014}, author = {Li, SZ and Sun, LL and Ma, YP and Ma, YP and Xu, YD and E, YH}, title = {[Effects of climate change on flax development and yield in Guyuan of Ningxia, Northwest China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {10}, pages = {2892-2900}, pmid = {25796897}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Flax/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Based on variations of the annual mean temperature and precipitation analyzed using ob- servation data in Guyuan of Ningxia, the effects of climate change on the local flax developmental process and yield were investigated. The results showed that the annual mean temperature had an increasing trend (0.3 °C · (10 a)-1) and the annual precipitation had a decreasing trend (-20 mm · (10 a) -1) from 1957 to 2012. While the increasing trend of mean temperature during growing season of flax was more obviously than that of the annual temperature, the decreasing trend of precipitation during growing season was similar to that of annual precipitation. With temperature increasing and precipitation decreasing, the flax development rate was accelerated, resulting in the reduced growing period. Seedling stage was advanced 0.7 d with 1 °C increase in temperature during the period from sowing to seedling emergence. The duration from seedling emergence to two pairs of needles was shortened by 0.8 d with 1 °C increase in temperature and 0.1 d with 1 mm decrease in precipitation. Maturity stage was advanced 1.8 d with 1 °C increase in temperature and 0.1 d with 1 mm decrease in precipitation during the period from technical maturity to maturity. The flax development was accelerated because of temperature increasing and precipitation decreasing in the vegetative growth phase, which was one of the main causes of flax yield reduction year by year. Meanwhile, flower bud differentiation and pollination of flax were influenced by temperature increasing in the reproductive growth phase, which would affect the number of capsules and the seed setting rate per plant and lead to the decrease of flax yield. Therefore, adjusting plant structure and enlarging the planting area of late or middle-late variety were the important measures to reduce the effects of climate change on local flax production.}, }
@article {pmid25790777, year = {2015}, author = {Estenoz, S and Bush, E}, title = {Everglades restoration science and decision-making in the face of climate change: a management perspective.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {876-883}, pmid = {25790777}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Decision Making ; *Ecology ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Florida ; Humans ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Managers were invited to attend the two-day "Predicting Ecological Changes in the Florida Everglades in a Future Climate Scenario" workshop and to participate in discussion and panel sessions. This paper provides a management perspective on the technical presentations presented at the workshop, identifying information of particular interest to Everglades restoration decision-making. In addition, the paper highlights the points related to science and decision-making that emerged from the discussion sessions and provides thoughts for future discussion in a follow-up forum. Particular focus is dedicated to the importance of and challenges associated with integrating science and decision-making. In addition, the paper offers a management perspective on the uncertainties of climate science and the implications they have for influencing Everglades restoration decision-making. The authors propose that on the one hand, even given uncertainties associated with predicting the ecological response to climate change, there remains a scientific consensus that Everglades restoration is generally on the right track. On the other hand, uncertainty can be a significant barrier to climate science influencing the implementation of restoration and adaptive management programs.}, }
@article {pmid25790439, year = {2015}, author = {Li, C and Cao, Y and Zhang, M and Wang, J and Liu, J and Shi, H and Geng, Y}, title = {Hidden benefits of electric vehicles for addressing climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {9213}, pmid = {25790439}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {There is an increasingly hot debate on whether the replacement of conventional vehicles (CVs) by electric vehicles (EVs) should be delayed or accelerated since EVs require higher cost and cause more pollution than CVs in the manufacturing process. Here we reveal two hidden benefits of EVs for addressing climate change to support the imperative acceleration of replacing CVs with EVs. As EVs emit much less heat than CVs within the same mileage, the replacement can mitigate urban heat island effect (UHIE) to reduce the energy consumption of air conditioners, benefitting local and global climates. To demonstrate these effects brought by the replacement of CVs by EVs, we take Beijing, China, as an example. EVs emit only 19.8% of the total heat emitted by CVs per mile. The replacement of CVs by EVs in 2012 could have mitigated the summer heat island intensity (HII) by about 0.94°C, reduced the amount of electricity consumed daily by air conditioners in buildings by 14.44 million kilowatt-hours (kWh), and reduced daily CO2 emissions by 10,686 tonnes.}, }
@article {pmid25789416, year = {2015}, author = {Rane, RV and Rako, L and Kapun, M and Lee, SF and Hoffmann, AA}, title = {Genomic evidence for role of inversion 3RP of Drosophila melanogaster in facilitating climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {2423-2432}, doi = {10.1111/mec.13161}, pmid = {25789416}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Alleles ; Animals ; Australia ; *Chromosome Inversion ; *Climate Change ; Drosophila melanogaster/*genetics ; Evolution, Molecular ; *Genetics, Population ; Karyotype ; Linkage Disequilibrium ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {Chromosomal inversion polymorphisms are common in animals and plants, and recent models suggest that alternative arrangements spread by capturing different combinations of alleles acting additively or epistatically to favour local adaptation. It is also thought that inversions typically maintain favoured combinations for a long time by suppressing recombination between alternative chromosomal arrangements. Here, we consider patterns of linkage disequilibrium and genetic divergence in an old inversion polymorphism in Drosophila melanogaster (In(3R)Payne) known to be associated with climate change adaptation and a recent invasion event into Australia. We extracted, karyotyped and sequenced whole chromosomes from two Australian populations, so that changes in the arrangement of the alleles between geographically separated tropical and temperate areas could be compared. Chromosome-wide linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis revealed strong LD within the region spanned by In(3R)Payne. This genomic region also showed strong differentiation between the tropical and the temperate populations, but no differentiation between different karyotypes from the same population, after controlling for chromosomal arrangement. Patterns of differentiation across the chromosome arm and in gene ontologies were enhanced by the presence of the inversion. These data support the notion that inversions are strongly selected by bringing together combinations of genes, but it is still not clear if such combinations act additively or epistatically. Our data suggest that climatic adaptation through inversions can be dynamic, reflecting changes in the relative abundance of different forms of an inversion and ongoing evolution of allelic content within an inversion.}, }
@article {pmid25786733, year = {2015}, author = {Leibar, U and Aizpurua, A and Unamunzaga, O and Pascual, I and Morales, F}, title = {How will climate change influence grapevine cv. Tempranillo photosynthesis under different soil textures?.}, journal = {Photosynthesis research}, volume = {124}, number = {2}, pages = {199-215}, pmid = {25786733}, issn = {1573-5079}, mesh = {Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Chlorophyll/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Droughts ; Electron Transport ; Humidity ; Light ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Photosynthesis/*physiology/radiation effects ; Plant Leaves/physiology/radiation effects ; Plant Stems/physiology/radiation effects ; Plant Transpiration/*physiology/radiation effects ; Soil/*chemistry ; Temperature ; Vitis/*physiology/radiation effects ; Water/physiology ; }, abstract = {While photosynthetic responses to elevated CO2, elevated temperature, or water availability have previously been reported for grapevine as responses to single stress factors, reports on the combined effect of multiple stress factors are scarce. In the present work, we evaluated effects of simulated climate change [CC; 700 ppm CO2, 28/18 °C, and 33/53% relative humidity (RH), day/night] versus current conditions (375 ppm CO2, 24/14 °C, and 45/65% RH), water availability (well-irrigated vs. water deficit), and different types of soil textures (41, 19, and 8% of soil clay contents) on grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cv. Tempranillo) photosynthesis. Plants were grown using the fruit-bearing cutting model. CC increased the photosynthetic activity of grapevine plants grown under well-watered conditions, but such beneficial effects of elevated CO2, elevated temperature, and low RH were abolished by water deficit. Under water-deficit conditions, plants subjected to CC conditions had similar photosynthetic rates as those grown under current conditions, despite their higher sub-stomatal CO2 concentrations. As expected, water deficit reduced photosynthetic activity in association with inducing stomatal closure that prevents water loss. Evidence for photosynthetic downregulation under elevated CO2 was observed, with decreases in photosynthetic capacity and leaf N content and increases in the C/N ratio in plants subjected to CC conditions. Soil texture had no marked effects on photosynthesis and did not modify the photosynthetic response to CC and water-deficit conditions. However, in mature well-irrigated plants grown in the soils with the highest sand content, an important decrease in stomatal conductance was observed as well as a slight decrease in the utilization of absorbed light in photosynthetic electron transport (measured as photochemical quenching), possibly related to a low water-retention capacity of these soils even under well-watered conditions.}, }
@article {pmid25786226, year = {2015}, author = {Alarcón, D and Cavieres, LA}, title = {In the right place at the right time: habitat representation in protected areas of South American Nothofagus-dominated plants after a dispersal constrained climate change scenario.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {e0119952}, pmid = {25786226}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Chile ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Magnoliopsida/*physiology ; *Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {In order to assess the effects of climate change in temperate rainforest plants in southern South America in terms of habitat size, representation in protected areas, considering also if the expected impacts are similar for dominant trees and understory plant species, we used niche modeling constrained by species migration on 118 plant species, considering two groups of dominant trees and two groups of understory ferns. Representation in protected areas included Chilean national protected areas, private protected areas, and priority areas planned for future reserves, with two thresholds for minimum representation at the country level: 10% and 17%. With a 10% representation threshold, national protected areas currently represent only 50% of the assessed species. Private reserves are important since they increase up to 66% the species representation level. Besides, 97% of the evaluated species may achieve the minimum representation target only if the proposed priority areas were included. With the climate change scenario representation levels slightly increase to 53%, 69%, and 99%, respectively, to the categories previously mentioned. Thus, the current location of all the representation categories is useful for overcoming climate change by 2050. Climate change impacts on habitat size and representation of dominant trees in protected areas are not applicable to understory plants, highlighting the importance of assessing these effects with a larger number of species. Although climate change will modify the habitat size of plant species in South American temperate rainforests, it will have no significant impact in terms of the number of species adequately represented in Chile, where the implementation of the proposed reserves is vital to accomplish the present and future minimum representation. Our results also show the importance of using migration dispersal constraints to develop more realistic future habitat maps from climate change predictions.}, }
@article {pmid25784401, year = {2015}, author = {Crase, B and Vesk, PA and Liedloff, A and Wintle, BA}, title = {Modelling both dominance and species distribution provides a more complete picture of changes to mangrove ecosystems under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {3005-3020}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12930}, pmid = {25784401}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Lythraceae ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Rhizophoraceae ; }, abstract = {Dominant species influence the composition and abundance of other species present in ecosystems. However, forecasts of distributional change under future climates have predominantly focused on changes in species distribution and ignored possible changes in spatial and temporal patterns of dominance. We develop forecasts of spatial changes for the distribution of species dominance, defined in terms of basal area, and for species occurrence, in response to sea level rise for three tree taxa within an extensive mangrove ecosystem in northern Australia. Three new metrics are provided, indicating the area expected to be suitable under future conditions (Eoccupied), the instability of suitable area (Einstability) and the overlap between the current and future spatial distribution (Eoverlap). The current dominance and occurrence were modelled in relation to a set of environmental variables using boosted regression tree (BRT) models, under two scenarios of seedling establishment: unrestricted and highly restricted. While forecasts of spatial change were qualitatively similar for species occurrence and dominance, the models of species dominance exhibited higher metrics of model fit and predictive performance, and the spatial pattern of future dominance was less similar to the current pattern than was the case for the distributions of species occurrence. This highlights the possibility of greater changes in the spatial patterning of mangrove tree species dominance under future sea level rise. Under the restricted seedling establishment scenario, the area occupied by or dominated by a species declined between 42.1% and 93.8%, while for unrestricted seedling establishment, the area suitable for dominance or occurrence of each species varied from a decline of 68.4% to an expansion of 99.5%. As changes in the spatial patterning of dominance are likely to cause a cascade of effects throughout the ecosystem, forecasting spatial changes in dominance provides new and complementary information in addition to that provided by forecasts of species occurrence.}, }
@article {pmid25782031, year = {2015}, author = {Inoue, K and Lang, BK and Berg, DJ}, title = {Past climate change drives current genetic structure of an endangered freshwater mussel species.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {1910-1926}, doi = {10.1111/mec.13156}, pmid = {25782031}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Bivalvia/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Gene Flow ; Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; Haplotypes ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Models, Biological ; New Mexico ; Phylogeography ; Texas ; }, abstract = {Historical-to-recent climate change and anthropogenic disturbance affect species distributions and genetic structure. The Rio Grande watershed of the United States and Mexico encompasses ecosystems that are intensively exploited, resulting in substantial degradation of aquatic habitats. While significant anthropogenic disturbances in the Rio Grande are recent, inhospitable conditions for freshwater organisms likely existed prior to such disturbances. A combination of anthropogenic and past climate factors may contribute to current distributions of aquatic fauna in the Rio Grande basin. We used mitochondrial DNA and 18 microsatellite loci to infer evolutionary history and genetic structure of an endangered freshwater mussel, Popenaias popeii, throughout the Rio Grande drainage. We estimated spatial connectivity and gene flow across extant populations of P. popeii and used ecological niche models (ENMs) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to infer its evolutionary history during the Pleistocene. structure results recovered regional and local population clusters in the Rio Grande. ENMs predicted drastic reductions in suitable habitat during the last glacial maximum. ABC analyses suggested that regional population structure likely arose in this species during the mid-to-late Pleistocene and was followed by a late Pleistocene population bottleneck in New Mexico populations. The local population structure arose relatively recently, perhaps due to anthropogenic factors. Popenaias popeii, one of the few freshwater mussel species native to the Rio Grande basin, is a case study for understanding how both geological and anthropogenic factors shape current population genetic structure. Conservation strategies for this species should account for the fragmented nature of contemporary populations.}, }
@article {pmid25775586, year = {2015}, author = {Wichura, H and Jacobs, LL and Lin, A and Polcyn, MJ and Manthi, FK and Winkler, DA and Strecker, MR and Clemens, M}, title = {A 17-My-old whale constrains onset of uplift and climate change in east Africa.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {13}, pages = {3910-3915}, pmid = {25775586}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Africa ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Fossils ; Geography ; Phylogeny ; Tomography, X-Ray Computed ; Whales/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Timing and magnitude of surface uplift are key to understanding the impact of crustal deformation and topographic growth on atmospheric circulation, environmental conditions, and surface processes. Uplift of the East African Plateau is linked to mantle processes, but paleoaltimetry data are too scarce to constrain plateau evolution and subsequent vertical motions associated with rifting. Here, we assess the paleotopographic implications of a beaked whale fossil (Ziphiidae) from the Turkana region of Kenya found 740 km inland from the present-day coastline of the Indian Ocean at an elevation of 620 m. The specimen is ∼ 17 My old and represents the oldest derived beaked whale known, consistent with molecular estimates of the emergence of modern strap-toothed whales (Mesoplodon). The whale traveled from the Indian Ocean inland along an eastward-directed drainage system controlled by the Cretaceous Anza Graben and was stranded slightly above sea level. Surface uplift from near sea level coincides with paleoclimatic change from a humid environment to highly variable and much drier conditions, which altered biotic communities and drove evolution in east Africa, including that of primates.}, }
@article {pmid25773898, year = {2015}, author = {Sperry, JS and Love, DM}, title = {What plant hydraulics can tell us about responses to climate-change droughts.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {207}, number = {1}, pages = {14-27}, doi = {10.1111/nph.13354}, pmid = {25773898}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Models, Biological ; Plant Transpiration/physiology ; Stress, Physiological ; Water/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change exposes vegetation to unusual drought, causing declines in productivity and increased mortality. Drought responses are hard to anticipate because canopy transpiration and diffusive conductance (G) respond to drying soil and vapor pressure deficit (D) in complex ways. A growing database of hydraulic traits, combined with a parsimonious theory of tree water transport and its regulation, may improve predictions of at-risk vegetation. The theory uses the physics of flow through soil and xylem to quantify how canopy water supply declines with drought and ceases by hydraulic failure. This transpiration 'supply function' is used to predict a water 'loss function' by assuming that stomatal regulation exploits transport capacity while avoiding failure. Supply-loss theory incorporates root distribution, hydraulic redistribution, cavitation vulnerability, and cavitation reversal. The theory efficiently defines stomatal responses to D, drying soil, and hydraulic vulnerability. Driving the theory with climate predicts drought-induced loss of plant hydraulic conductance (k), canopy G, carbon assimilation, and productivity. Data lead to the 'chronic stress hypothesis' wherein > 60% loss of k increases mortality by multiple mechanisms. Supply-loss theory predicts the climatic conditions that push vegetation over this risk threshold. The theory's simplicity and predictive power encourage testing and application in large-scale modeling.}, }
@article {pmid25770952, year = {2015}, author = {Wu, J and Malmström, ME}, title = {Nutrient loadings from urban catchments under climate change scenarios: case studies in Stockholm, Sweden.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {518-519}, number = {}, pages = {393-406}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.02.041}, pmid = {25770952}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Phosphorus/*analysis ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Sweden ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic nutrient emissions and associated eutrophication of urban lakes are a global problem. Future changes in temperature and precipitation may influence nutrient loadings in lake catchments. A coupling method, where the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions method was tested in combination with source quantification in a Substance Flow Analysis structure, was suggested to investigate diffuse nutrient sources and pathways and climate change effects on the loadings to streamflow in urban catchments. This method may, with an acceptable level of uncertainty, be applied to urban catchments for first-hand estimations of nutrient loadings in the projected future and to highlight the need for further study and monitoring. Five lake catchments in Stockholm, Sweden (Råcksta Träsk, Judarn, Trekanten, Långsjön and Laduviken) were employed as case studies and potential climate change effects were explored by comparing loading scenarios in two periods (2000-2009 and 2021-2030). For the selected cases, the dominant diffuse sources of nutrients to urban streamflow were found to be background atmospheric concentration and vehicular traffic. The major pathways of the nitrogen loading were suggested to be from both developed areas and natural areas in the control period, while phosphorus was indicated to be largely transported through surface runoff from natural areas. Furthermore, for nitrogen, a modest redistribution of loadings from surface runoff and stormwater between seasons and an increase in the annual loading were suggested for the projected future climate scenarios as compared to the control period. The model was, due to poor monitoring data availability, only able to set an upper limit to nutrient transport by groundwater both in the control period and the future scenarios. However, for nitrogen, groundwater appeared to be the pathway most sensitive to climate change, with a considerable increase and seasonal redistribution of loadings. For phosphorus, loadings by different pathways were apparently less sensitive to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25770445, year = {2015}, author = {Zhang, Y and Wu, Z and Liu, M and He, J and Shi, K and Zhou, Y and Wang, M and Liu, X}, title = {Dissolved oxygen stratification and response to thermal structure and long-term climate change in a large and deep subtropical reservoir (Lake Qiandaohu, China).}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {75}, number = {}, pages = {249-258}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2015.02.052}, pmid = {25770445}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Lakes/*analysis ; Oxygen/*analysis ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {From January 2010 to March 2014, detailed depth profiles of water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were collected at three sites in Lake Qiandaohu, a large, deep subtropical reservoir in China. Additionally, we assessed the changes in DO stratification over the past 61 years (1953-2013) based on our empirical models and long-term air temperature and transparency data. The DO concentration never fell below 2 mg/L, the critical value for anoxia, and the DO depth profiles were closely linked to the water temperature depth profiles. In the stable stratification period in summer and autumn, the significant increase in CDOM in the metalimnion explained the decrease in DO due to the oxygen consumed by CDOM. Well-developed oxygen stratification was detected at the three sites in spring, summer and autumn and was associated with thermal stratification. Oxycline depth was significantly negatively correlated with daily air temperature and thermocline thickness but significantly positively correlated with thermocline depth during the stratification weakness period (July-February). However, there were no significant correlations among these parameters during the stratification formation period (March-June). The increase of 1.67 °C in yearly average daily air temperature between 1980 and 2013 and the decrease of 0.78 m in Secchi disk depth caused a decrease of 1.65 m and 2.78 m in oxycline depth, respectively, facilitating oxygen stratification and decreasing water quality. Therefore, climate warming has had a substantial effect on water quality through changing the DO regime in Lake Qiandaohu.}, }
@article {pmid25770219, year = {2015}, author = {Fu, R}, title = {Global warming-accelerated drying in the tropics.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {12}, pages = {3593-3594}, pmid = {25770219}, issn = {1091-6490}, }
@article {pmid25768210, year = {2015}, author = {Jung, M and Kim, H and Mallari, KJ and Pak, G and Yoon, J}, title = {Analysis of effects of climate change on runoff in an urban drainage system: a case study from Seoul, Korea.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {71}, number = {5}, pages = {653-660}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2014.341}, pmid = {25768210}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Linear Models ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Republic of Korea ; Seoul ; Time Factors ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Both water quantity and quality are impacted by climate change. In addition, rapid urbanization has also brought an immeasurable loss of life and property resulting from floods. Hence, there is a need to predict changes in rainfall events to effectively design stormwater infrastructure to protect urban areas from disaster. This study develops a framework for predicting future short duration rainfall intensity and examining the effects of climate change on urban runoff in the Gunja Drainage Basin. Non-stationarities in rainfall records are first analysed using trend analysis to extrapolate future climate change scenarios. The US Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was used for single event simulation of runoff quantity from the study area. For the 1-hour and 24-hour durations, statistically significant upward trends were observed. Although the 10-minute duration was only nearly significant at the 90% level, the steepest slope was observed for this short duration. Moreover, it was observed that the simulated peak discharge from SWMM increases as the short duration rainfall intensity increases. The proposed framework is thought to provide a means to review the current design of stormwater infrastructures to determine their capacity, along with consideration of climate change impact.}, }
@article {pmid25765067, year = {2015}, author = {Coumou, D and Lehmann, J and Beckmann, J}, title = {Climate change. The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {348}, number = {6232}, pages = {324-327}, doi = {10.1126/science.1261768}, pmid = {25765067}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Rapid warming in the Arctic could influence mid-latitude circulation by reducing the poleward temperature gradient. The largest changes are generally expected in autumn or winter, but whether significant changes have occurred is debated. Here we report significant weakening of summer circulation detected in three key dynamical quantities: (i) the zonal-mean zonal wind, (ii) the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), and (iii) the amplitude of fast-moving Rossby waves. Weakening of the zonal wind is explained by a reduction in the poleward temperature gradient. Changes in Rossby waves and EKE are consistent with regression analyses of climate model projections and changes over the seasonal cycle. Monthly heat extremes are associated with low EKE, and thus the observed weakening might have contributed to more persistent heat waves in recent summers.}, }
@article {pmid25762278, year = {2015}, author = {Booth, B and Bellouin, N}, title = {Climate change: Black carbon and atmospheric feedbacks.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {519}, number = {7542}, pages = {167-168}, pmid = {25762278}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Air Pollution/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Biofuels ; Environmental Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Feedback ; Fossil Fuels ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Models, Theoretical ; Soot/*analysis/*radiation effects ; *Sunlight ; }, }
@article {pmid25757576, year = {2015}, author = {Pearce-Higgins, JW and Eglington, SM and Martay, B and Chamberlain, DE}, title = {Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {84}, number = {4}, pages = {943-954}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12364}, pmid = {25757576}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; England ; Population Dynamics ; *Rain ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species' populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in long-distance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species' sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have tended to decline. Our results provide novel insights about the impact of climate change on bird communities. Significant lagged effects highlight the potential for altered species' interactions to drive observed climate change impacts, although some community changes may have been driven by more immediate responses to warming. In England, resident and short-distance migrant populations have increased in response to climate change, but potentially at the expense of long-distance migrants, habitat specialists and cold-associated species.}, }
@article {pmid25757318, year = {2014}, author = {Li, B and Li, QL and Fan, CH and Sun, LY and Xiong, ZQ}, title = {[Effects of biochar and nitrification inhibitor incorporation on global warming potential of a vegetable field in Nanjing, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {9}, pages = {2651-2657}, pmid = {25757318}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Charcoal ; China ; Gases ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Methane ; *Nitrification ; Nitrous Oxide ; Soil ; Vegetables/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The influences of biochar and nitrification inhibitor incorporation on global warming potential (GWP) of a vegetable field were studied using the static chamber and gas chromatography method. Compared with the treatments without biochar addition, the annual GWP of N2O and CH4 and vegetable yield were increased by 8.7%-12.4% and 16.1%-52.5%, respectively, whereas the greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) were decreased by 5.4%-28.7% following biochar amendment. Nitrification inhibitor significantly reduced the N2O emission while had little influence on CH4 emission, decreased GWP by 17.5%-20.6%, increased vegetable yield by 21.2%-40.1%, and decreased the GHGI significantly. The combined application of biochar and nitrification inhibitor significantly increased both vegetable yield and GWP, but to a greater extent for vegetable yield. Therefore, nitrification inhibitor incorporation could be served as an appropriate practice for increasing vegetable yield and mitigating GHG emissions in vegetable field.}, }
@article {pmid25757292, year = {2014}, author = {Ma, J and Bu, R and Deng, HW and Hu, YM and Qin, Q and Han, FL}, title = {[Simulating climate change effect on aboveground carbon sequestration rates of main broadleaved trees in the Xiaoxing'an Mountains area, Northeast China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {9}, pages = {2449-2459}, pmid = {25757292}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Carbon Sequestration ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Models, Theoretical ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {LANDIS Pro 7.0 model was used to simulate the dynamics of aboveground biomass of ten broadleaved tree species in the Xiao Xing' an Mountains area under current and various climate change scenarios from 2000 to 2200, and carbon content coefficients (CCCs) were coupled to cal- culate the aboveground carbon sequestration rates (ACSRs) of these species. The results showed that in the initial year of simulation, the biomasses and their proportions of Fraxinus mandshurica, Phellodendron amurense, Quercus mongolica, Ulmus propinqua, and Acer mono were relatively low, while those of Betula costata, Betula platyphylla, and Populus davidiana were higher. A trend of rise after decline occurred in ACSR for pioneer species in the mid and late periods of simulation years, but ACSRs for the other broadleaved tree species were considerably complex. The ACSRs of Q. mongolica and Tilla amurensis fluctuated in the ranges of -0.05-0.25 t · hm(-2) · 10 a(-1) and 0.16-1.29 t · hm(-2) · 10 a(-1) in simulation years, respectively. The ACSRs of F. mandshurica, U. propinqua, A. mono, and B. costata showed a trend of decline after rise in late simulation years. There were significant differences in ACSR for P. amurense and B. davurica among various climate change scenarios in the periods of 2050-2100 and 2150-2200, while no significant difference in ACSR for the other species would be detected. Difference of sensitivity of various species in ACSR for future climate scenarios in the Small Khingan Mountains area existed. However, the un- certainty of future climates would not yield significant difference in ACSR for most broadleaved tree species. Moreover, a time lag would exist in the process of climate change effects on temperate forest's ACSR.}, }
@article {pmid25752508, year = {2015}, author = {Duputié, A and Rutschmann, A and Ronce, O and Chuine, I}, title = {Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {3062-3073}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12914}, pmid = {25752508}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Fagus/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Phenotype ; Pinus/*physiology ; Quercus/*physiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid25750425, year = {2015}, author = {Stratonovitch, P and Semenov, MA}, title = {Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {66}, number = {12}, pages = {3599-3609}, pmid = {25750425}, issn = {1460-2431}, support = {//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Europe ; Flowers/*physiology ; *Hot Temperature ; *Quantitative Trait, Heritable ; Time Factors ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Projected climatic and environmental changes emphasize the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost, and drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat development has been identified as a possible threat to wheat production in Europe. However, no estimates have been made to assess yield losses due to increased frequency and magnitude of heat stress under climate change. Using existing experimental data, the Sirius wheat model was refined by incorporating the effects of extreme temperature during flowering and grain filling on accelerated leaf senescence, grain number, and grain weight. This allowed us, for the first time, to quantify yield losses resulting from heat stress under climate change. The model was used to optimize wheat ideotypes for CMIP5-based climate scenarios for 2050 at six sites in Europe with diverse climates. The yield potential for heat-tolerant ideotypes can be substantially increased in the future (e.g. by 80% at Seville, 100% at Debrecen) compared with the current cultivars by selecting an optimal combination of wheat traits, e.g. optimal phenology and extended duration of grain filling. However, at two sites, Seville and Debrecen, the grain yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes were substantially lower (by 54% and 16%) and more variable compared with heat-tolerant ideotypes, because the extended grain filling required for the increased yield potential was in conflict with episodes of high temperature during flowering and grain filling. Despite much earlier flowering at these sites, the risk of heat stress affecting yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes remained high. Therefore, heat tolerance in wheat is likely to become a key trait for increased yield potential and yield stability in southern Europe in the future.}, }
@article {pmid25749058, year = {2015}, author = {Heffernan, C}, title = {Climate change and infectious disease: time for a new normal?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {143-144}, pmid = {25749058}, issn = {1474-4457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Topography, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid25737381, year = {2015}, author = {Schollert, M and Kivimäenpää, M and Valolahti, HM and Rinnan, R}, title = {Climate change alters leaf anatomy, but has no effects on volatile emissions from Arctic plants.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {38}, number = {10}, pages = {2048-2060}, doi = {10.1111/pce.12530}, pmid = {25737381}, issn = {1365-3040}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Arctic Regions ; Betula/anatomy &amp; histology/chemistry/*physiology/radiation effects ; Climate Change ; Ericaceae/anatomy &amp; histology/chemistry/*physiology/radiation effects ; Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry ; Light ; Plant Leaves/anatomy &amp; histology/chemistry/physiology ; Salix/anatomy &amp; histology/chemistry/*physiology/radiation effects ; Temperature ; Volatile Organic Compounds/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions are expected to change substantially because of the rapid advancement of climate change in the Arctic. BVOC emission changes can feed back both positively and negatively on climate warming. We investigated the effects of elevated temperature and shading on BVOC emissions from arctic plant species Empetrum hermaphroditum, Cassiope tetragona, Betula nana and Salix arctica. Measurements were performed in situ in long-term field experiments in subarctic and high Arctic using a dynamic enclosure system and collection of BVOCs into adsorbent cartridges analysed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. In order to assess whether the treatments had resulted in anatomical adaptations, we additionally examined leaf anatomy using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. Against expectations based on the known temperature and light-dependency of BVOC emissions, the emissions were barely affected by the treatments. In contrast, leaf anatomy of the studied plants was significantly altered in response to the treatments, and these responses appear to differ from species found at lower latitudes. We suggest that leaf anatomical acclimation may partially explain the lacking treatment effects on BVOC emissions at plant shoot-level. However, more studies are needed to unravel why BVOC emission responses in arctic plants differ from temperate species.}, }
@article {pmid25736595, year = {2015}, author = {Whitehead, PG and Barbour, E and Futter, MN and Sarkar, S and Rodda, H and Caesar, J and Butterfield, D and Jin, L and Sinha, R and Nicholls, R and Salehin, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {1057-1069}, doi = {10.1039/c4em00619d}, pmid = {25736595}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Droughts ; *Floods ; India ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) is one of the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 650 million, and is of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as it provides fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and for the delta system downstream. This paper seeks to assess future changes in flow and water quality utilising a modelling approach as a means of assessment in a very complex system. The INCA-N model has been applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river systems to simulate flow and water quality along the rivers under a range of future climate conditions. Three model realisations of the Met Office Hadley Centre global and regional climate models were selected from 17 perturbed model runs to evaluate a range of potential futures in climate. In addition, the models have also been evaluated using socio-economic scenarios, comprising (1) a business as usual future, (2) a more sustainable future, and (3) a less sustainable future. Model results for the 2050s and the 2090s indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates, with enhanced flood potential. Low flows are predicted to fall with extended drought periods, which could have impacts on water and sediment supply, irrigated agriculture and saline intrusion. In contrast, the socio-economic changes had relatively little impact on flows, except under the low flow regimes where increased irrigation could further reduce water availability. However, should large scale water transfers upstream of Bangladesh be constructed, these have the potential to reduce flows and divert water away from the delta region depending on the volume and timing of the transfers. This could have significant implications for the delta in terms of saline intrusion, water supply, agriculture and maintaining crucial ecosystems such as the mangrove forests, with serious implications for people's livelihoods in the area. The socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality, altering nutrient fluxes being transported into the delta region.}, }
@article {pmid25734275, year = {2015}, author = {Lanier, HC and Gunderson, AM and Weksler, M and Fedorov, VB and Olson, LE}, title = {Comparative phylogeography highlights the double-edged sword of climate change faced by arctic- and alpine-adapted mammals.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {e0118396}, pmid = {25734275}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; Mammals/*physiology ; *Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Recent studies suggest that alpine and arctic organisms may have distinctly different phylogeographic histories from temperate or tropical taxa, with recent range contraction into interglacial refugia as opposed to post-glacial expansion out of refugia. We use a combination of phylogeographic inference, demographic reconstructions, and hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation to test for phylodemographic concordance among five species of alpine-adapted small mammals in eastern Beringia. These species (Collared Pikas, Hoary Marmots, Brown Lemmings, Arctic Ground Squirrels, and Singing Voles) vary in specificity to alpine and boreal-tundra habitat but share commonalities (e.g., cold tolerance and nunatak survival) that might result in concordant responses to Pleistocene glaciations. All five species contain a similar phylogeographic disjunction separating eastern and Beringian lineages, which we show to be the result of simultaneous divergence. Genetic diversity is similar within each haplogroup for each species, and there is no support for a post-Pleistocene population expansion in eastern lineages relative to those from Beringia. Bayesian skyline plots for four of the five species do not support Pleistocene population contraction. Brown Lemmings show evidence of late Quaternary demographic expansion without subsequent population decline. The Wrangell-St. Elias region of eastern Alaska appears to be an important zone of recent secondary contact for nearctic alpine mammals. Despite differences in natural history and ecology, similar phylogeographic histories are supported for all species, suggesting that these, and likely other, alpine- and arctic-adapted taxa are already experiencing population and/or range declines that are likely to synergistically accelerate in the face of rapid climate change. Climate change may therefore be acting as a double-edged sword that erodes genetic diversity within populations but promotes divergence and the generation of biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid25733898, year = {2015}, author = {Kelley, CP and Mohtadi, S and Cane, MA and Seager, R and Kushnir, Y}, title = {Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {11}, pages = {3241-3246}, pmid = {25733898}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Geography ; Rain ; Seasons ; Syria ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.}, }
@article {pmid25733876, year = {2015}, author = {Brown, AR and Owen, SF and Peters, J and Zhang, Y and Soffker, M and Paull, GC and Hosken, DJ and Wahab, MA and Tyler, CR}, title = {Climate change and pollution speed declines in zebrafish populations.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {11}, pages = {E1237-46}, pmid = {25733876}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {BB/L01548X/1//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Clotrimazole/toxicity ; Environmental Exposure/analysis ; Environmental Pollution/*analysis ; Female ; Germ Cells/cytology/drug effects ; Gonads/drug effects ; Inbreeding ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Zebrafish/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are potent environmental contaminants, and their effects on wildlife populations could be exacerbated by climate change, especially in species with environmental sex determination. Endangered species may be particularly at risk because inbreeding depression and stochastic fluctuations in male and female numbers are often observed in the small populations that typify these taxa. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of water temperature and EDC exposure on sexual development and population viability of inbred and outbred zebrafish (Danio rerio). Water temperatures adopted were 28 °C (current ambient mean spawning temperature) and 33 °C (projected for the year 2100). The EDC selected was clotrimazole (at 2 μg/L and 10 μg/L), a widely used antifungal chemical that inhibits a key steroidogenic enzyme [cytochrome P450(CYP19) aromatase] required for estrogen synthesis in vertebrates. Elevated water temperature and clotrimazole exposure independently induced male-skewed sex ratios, and the effects of clotrimazole were greater at the higher temperature. Male sex ratio skews also occurred for the lower clotrimazole exposure concentration at the higher water temperature in inbred fish but not in outbred fish. Population viability analysis showed that population growth rates declined sharply in response to male skews and declines for inbred populations occurred at lower male skews than for outbred populations. These results indicate that elevated temperature associated with climate change can amplify the effects of EDCs and these effects are likely to be most acute in small, inbred populations exhibiting environmental sex determination and/or differentiation.}, }
@article {pmid25729797, year = {2015}, author = {Anderegg, WR}, title = {Spatial and temporal variation in plant hydraulic traits and their relevance for climate change impacts on vegetation.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {205}, number = {3}, pages = {1008-1014}, doi = {10.1111/nph.12907}, pmid = {25729797}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Ecosystem ; *Genetic Variation ; *Phenotype ; *Plant Transpiration ; *Plants/genetics ; Species Specificity ; Stress, Physiological ; Water ; }, abstract = {Plant hydraulics mediate terrestrial woody plant productivity, influencing global water, carbon, and biogeochemical cycles, as well as ecosystem vulnerability to drought and climate change. While inter-specific differences in hydraulic traits are widely documented, intra-specific hydraulic variability is less well known and is important for predicting climate change impacts. Here, I present a conceptual framework for this intra-specific hydraulic trait variability, reviewing the mechanisms that drive variability and the consequences for vegetation response to climate change. I performed a meta-analysis on published studies (n = 33) of intra-specific variation in a prominent hydraulic trait - water potential at which 50% stem conductivity is lost (P50) - and compared this variation to inter-specific variability within genera and plant functional types used by a dynamic global vegetation model. I found that intra-specific variability is of ecologically relevant magnitudes, equivalent to c. 33% of the inter-specific variability within a genus, and is larger in angiosperms than gymnosperms, although the limited number of studies highlights that more research is greatly needed. Furthermore, plant functional types were poorly situated to capture key differences in hydraulic traits across species, indicating a need to approach prediction of drought impacts from a trait-based, rather than functional type-based perspective.}, }
@article {pmid25729440, year = {2015}, author = {Nowack, PJ and Abraham, NL and Maycock, AC and Braesicke, P and Gregory, JM and Joshi, MM and Osprey, A and Pyle, JA}, title = {A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {5}, number = {January}, pages = {41-45}, pmid = {25729440}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {267760/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {State-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes which are simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever[1]. Nevertheless, some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive and are often ignored in climate simulations[1,2]. Here we present evidence that how stratospheric ozone is represented in climate models can have a first order impact on estimates of effective climate sensitivity. Using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1°C (~20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4×CO2 forcing. The difference is primarily attributed to changes in longwave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone and related stratospheric water vapour and cirrus cloud changes. This has important implications for global model intercomparison studies[1,2] in which participating models often use simplified treatments of atmospheric composition changes that are neither consistent with the specified greenhouse gas forcing scenario nor with the associated atmospheric circulation feedbacks[3-5].}, }
@article {pmid25722410, year = {2015}, author = {Steinman, BA and Mann, ME and Miller, SK}, title = {Climate change. Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {347}, number = {6225}, pages = {988-991}, doi = {10.1126/science.1257856}, pmid = {25722410}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; *Earth, Planet ; *Global Warming ; Models, Theoretical ; Pacific Ocean ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system. To address these issues, we applied a semi-empirical approach that combines climate observations and model simulations to estimate Atlantic- and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (termed "AMO" and "PMO," respectively). Using this method, the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between a modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative-trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown or "false pause" in warming of the past decade.}, }
@article {pmid25722400, year = {2015}, author = {Booth, BB}, title = {Climate change. Why the Pacific is cool.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {347}, number = {6225}, pages = {952}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaa4840}, pmid = {25722400}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Earth, Planet ; *Global Warming ; }, }
@article {pmid25720275, year = {2014}, author = {Minin, AA and Voskova, AV}, title = {[Homeostatic responses of plants to modern climate change: spatial and phenological aspects].}, journal = {Ontogenez}, volume = {45}, number = {3}, pages = {162-169}, pmid = {25720275}, issn = {0475-1450}, mesh = {Betula/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Fraxinus/*physiology ; Homeostasis/*physiology ; Russia ; Tilia/*physiology ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {A series of dates of unfolding of the first leaves and duration of the season of vegetation in the silver birch (Betulapendula Roth. (B. verrucosa Ehrh.)), as well as the duration of flowering of the bird cherry (Padus avium), mountain ash (Sórbus aucupária), and small-leaved lime (Tilia cordata Mill.) for the period 1970-2010 in the central part of European Russia were studied in order to assess the trends. Differences in phenological responses to homogeneous climate changes in the trees of the same species from the northern and southern parts of the range were revealed. If spring events occur 3-7 days earlier in the northern part, no such effect is observed in the south. This fact can be interpreted as a manifestation of the different mechanisms of homeostasis in different populations determined by their biological characteristics (in particular, by the need to pass successfully the periods of organic rest and vegetation).}, }
@article {pmid25717314, year = {2015}, author = {Shalev, I}, title = {The climate change problem: promoting motivation for change when the map is not the territory.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {131}, pmid = {25717314}, issn = {1664-1078}, }
@article {pmid25715286, year = {2015}, author = {Barcellos, C}, title = {Climate change, health, and penguins in Copacabana.}, journal = {Cadernos de saude publica}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {5}, doi = {10.1590/0102-311xed010115}, pmid = {25715286}, issn = {1678-4464}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Spheniscidae ; }, }
@article {pmid25714347, year = {2015}, author = {van der Linden, SL and Leiserowitz, AA and Feinberg, GD and Maibach, EW}, title = {The scientific consensus on climate change as a gateway belief: experimental evidence.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {e0118489}, pmid = {25714347}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Consensus ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a "gateway belief model" (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25710600, year = {2015}, author = {Kourgialas, NN and Dokou, Z and Karatzas, GP}, title = {Statistical analysis and ANN modeling for predicting hydrological extremes under climate change scenarios: the example of a small Mediterranean agro-watershed.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {154}, number = {}, pages = {86-101}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.02.034}, pmid = {25710600}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Data Interpretation, Statistical ; *Fresh Water ; Greece ; Humans ; *Hydrology ; Mediterranean Region ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The purpose of this study was to create a modeling management tool for the simulation of extreme flow events under current and future climatic conditions. This tool is a combination of different components and can be applied in complex hydrogeological river basins, where frequent flood and drought phenomena occur. The first component is the statistical analysis of the available hydro-meteorological data. Specifically, principal components analysis was performed in order to quantify the importance of the hydro-meteorological parameters that affect the generation of extreme events. The second component is a prediction-forecasting artificial neural network (ANN) model that simulates, accurately and efficiently, river flow on an hourly basis. This model is based on a methodology that attempts to resolve a very difficult problem related to the accurate estimation of extreme flows. For this purpose, the available measurements (5 years of hourly data) were divided in two subsets: one for the dry and one for the wet periods of the hydrological year. This way, two ANNs were created, trained, tested and validated for a complex Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece. As part of the second management component a statistical downscaling tool was used for the creation of meteorological data according to the higher and lower emission climate change scenarios A2 and B1. These data are used as input in the ANN for the forecasting of river flow for the next two decades. The final component is the application of a meteorological index on the measured and forecasted precipitation and flow data, in order to assess the severity and duration of extreme events.}, }
@article {pmid25707776, year = {2015}, author = {Hänel, S and Tielbörger, K}, title = {Phenotypic response of plants to simulated climate change in a long-term rain-manipulation experiment: a multi-species study.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {177}, number = {4}, pages = {1015-1024}, pmid = {25707776}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Biomass ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Ecology ; Flowers/*growth &amp; development ; *Phenotype ; *Plants ; *Rain ; Stress, Physiological ; Water ; }, abstract = {Many species will need to adapt to the observed climate change in order to persist. However, research about adaptation or phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change is rare. In particular, field studies are lacking that impose artificial selection for a sufficiently long time to elicit changes in phenotypic and genotypic structure of populations. Here, we present findings for an 8-year field experiment with 16 annual plant species that tested potentially adaptive phenotypic responses to precipitation change. In both a Mediterranean and a semi-arid site, annual precipitation was manipulated (±30%) and phenotypic response was recorded. We measured flowering time as a key trait related to climatic conditions and biomass and survival as fitness correlates. Differences in traits among treatments were compared to trait shifts between sites, according to space-for-time approaches. In the drier site, phenology was accelerated, but within that site, experimental drought delayed phenology, probably as a plastic response to delayed ontogenetic development. Biomass was smaller in the dry treatments of that site, but it was also reduced in irrigated plots in both sites, indicating more intense competition. The shifts from limitation by drought to limitation by competition corresponded to patterns along the gradient. This also implies a larger negative impact of climate change in the drier site. Our results suggest that experimental selection in the field caused directional responses in most species, but these were not necessarily adaptive. Furthermore, competitive release imposed by climate change may revert direct negative effects of rainfall change in determining plant performance.}, }
@article {pmid25707177, year = {2014}, author = {Black, PF and Butler, CD}, title = {One Health in a world with climate change.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {33}, number = {2}, pages = {465-473}, doi = {10.20506/rst.33.2.2293}, pmid = {25707177}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control ; Food Supply ; Foodborne Diseases ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Internationality ; Zoonoses ; }, abstract = {The One Health movement, as defined in this paper, has progressed from a focus on emerging infectious diseases to a broader set of challenges that include food security and food safety. These interact with climate change, a so-called 'wicked problem' that has links to all human activity. Climate change acts as a threat multiplier that interacts both directly and indirectly with variables, such as disease, food production, food security, food safety and poverty. A number of these interactions are briefly described in this paper before issues of complexity and interconnectedness between these variables are discussed. A common thread underpinning this current global challenge to civilisation is that the system is now dominated by the activities of humans--and many scientists label the current epoch the 'Anthropocene'. Specifically, humans have for the first time collectively overloaded the Earth's capacity to supply, absorb, replenish and stabilise. Many scientists now observe that the ecological and environmental foundations of civilisation appear to be at risk. This paper suggests that, for the One Health movement to address such challenges, the range and number of disciplines that need to be involved must be expanded. In particular, in addition to the insights provided by technical specialists, we need to engage disciplines with the capacity to advance political, economic and social reforms. This will not be easy, but it is argued that this is what is required from the One Health movement in a world with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25706493, year = {2015}, author = {Ewart, GW and Rom, WN and Braman, SS and Pinkerton, KE}, title = {From closing the atmospheric ozone hole to reducing climate change. Lessons learned.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {247-251}, doi = {10.1513/AnnalsATS.201411-537PS}, pmid = {25706493}, issn = {2325-6621}, mesh = {Chlorofluorocarbons/*history ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; History, 20th Century ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Nebulizers and Vaporizers/*history ; Ozone Depletion/*history ; Pulmonary Medicine/*history ; }, abstract = {Global warming presents U.S. and transnational leaders with enormous political and policy challenges. World leadership addressed a similar worldwide environmental challenge in the 1980s and 1990s when scientists advised that accelerating emission of man-made chlorofluorocarbons was depleting the ozone layer of the earth's atmosphere. The process that led to global agreement on reducing depletion of the ozone layer holds valuable lessons, and some ironies, for scientists and policy makers seeking now to address global climate change. By understanding the international treaty process, how science informed that process, and how the physician community played a constructive role in the transition away from commercial use of ozone-depleting gases three decades ago, environmental activists can better understand the challenges, opportunities, and potential solutions under current consideration in affecting global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25706492, year = {2015}, author = {Rice, MB}, title = {Climate change at the bedside? Observations from an ATS membership survey.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {245-246}, pmid = {25706492}, issn = {2325-6621}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Physician's Role ; *Public Health ; *Pulmonary Medicine ; *Societies, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid25705876, year = {2015}, author = {Lemoine, NP}, title = {Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {e0118614}, pmid = {25705876}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Asclepias/*parasitology ; Breeding ; Butterflies/*physiology ; Central America ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Female ; Geography ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Larva/physiology ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; North America ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; South America ; }, abstract = {Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration.}, }
@article {pmid25704748, year = {2015}, author = {van der Pol, TD and van Ierland, EC and Gabbert, S and Weikard, HP and Hendrix, EM}, title = {Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {154}, number = {}, pages = {40-47}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.02.016}, pmid = {25704748}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Floods ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; Netherlands ; *Rain ; *Water Movements ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable.}, }
@article {pmid25703827, year = {2015}, author = {Moore, JR and Watt, MS}, title = {Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {3021-3035}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12900}, pmid = {25703827}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forests ; *Models, Theoretical ; New Zealand ; Pinus/*growth &amp; development ; *Wind ; }, abstract = {Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances.}, }
@article {pmid25699673, year = {2015}, author = {Princé, K and Lorrillière, R and Barbet-Massin, M and Léger, F and Jiguet, F}, title = {Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {e0117850}, pmid = {25699673}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable agricultural policies for the future.}, }
@article {pmid25696925, year = {2015}, author = {Lecossois, B}, title = {IAEA issues 2014 edition of climate change and nuclear power.}, journal = {Health physics}, volume = {108}, number = {2}, pages = {295-296}, pmid = {25696925}, issn = {1538-5159}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Nuclear Energy ; *Nuclear Power Plants ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid25693571, year = {2015}, author = {Wang, D and Gouhier, TC and Menge, BA and Ganguly, AR}, title = {Intensification and spatial homogenization of coastal upwelling under climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {518}, number = {7539}, pages = {390-394}, pmid = {25693571}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/physiology ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Pacific Ocean ; Seasons ; Seawater/analysis ; Temperature ; *Water Movements ; Wind ; }, abstract = {The timing and strength of wind-driven coastal upwelling along the eastern margins of major ocean basins regulate the productivity of critical fisheries and marine ecosystems by bringing deep and nutrient-rich waters to the sunlit surface, where photosynthesis can occur. How coastal upwelling regimes might change in a warming climate is therefore a question of vital importance. Although enhanced land-ocean differential heating due to greenhouse warming has been proposed to intensify coastal upwelling by strengthening alongshore winds, analyses of observations and previous climate models have provided little consensus on historical and projected trends in coastal upwelling. Here we show that there are strong and consistent changes in the timing, intensity and spatial heterogeneity of coastal upwelling in response to future warming in most Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUSs). An ensemble of climate models shows that by the end of the twenty-first century the upwelling season will start earlier, end later and become more intense at high but not low latitudes. This projected increase in upwelling intensity and duration at high latitudes will result in a substantial reduction of the existing latitudinal variation in coastal upwelling. These patterns are consistent across three of the four EBUSs (Canary, Benguela and Humboldt, but not California). The lack of upwelling intensification and greater uncertainty associated with the California EBUS may reflect regional controls associated with the atmospheric response to climate change. Given the strong linkages between upwelling and marine ecosystems, the projected changes in the intensity, timing and spatial structure of coastal upwelling may influence the geographical distribution of marine biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid25691781, year = {2015}, author = {Patrick, K}, title = {Physicians and climate change policy: we are powerful agents of change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {187}, number = {5}, pages = {307}, pmid = {25691781}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; *Policy Making ; }, }
@article {pmid25688955, year = {2015}, author = {Sankoff, J}, title = {Heat illnesses: a hot topic in the setting of global climate change.}, journal = {Australian family physician}, volume = {44}, number = {1-2}, pages = {22-26}, pmid = {25688955}, issn = {0300-8495}, mesh = {Climate Change/mortality ; Heat Exhaustion/diagnosis/mortality/*pathology ; Heat Stress Disorders/diagnosis/mortality/*pathology ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Heat illnesses affect a large number of people every year and are becoming an increasing cause of pathology as climate change results in increasing global temperatures.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This article will review the physiological responses to heat, as well as the pathophysiological processes that result in heat illnesses. The emphasis will be on providing general practitioners (GPs) with an understanding of how to prevent heat illness in their patients and how to predict who is most at risk.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Heat illnesses may be thought of as minor or major illnesses, any of which may present to the GP. Consideration must be given to identifying those who need more critical intervention and on when to transfer for higher-level of care.}, }
@article {pmid25688949, year = {2015}, author = {}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report. Conclusions and recommendations.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, number = {}, pages = {107-108}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12592}, pmid = {25688949}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; Oceans and Seas ; Rain ; }, }
@article {pmid25688948, year = {2015}, author = {Solecki, W and Rosenzweig, C and Blake, R and de Sherbinin, A and Matte, T and Moshary, F and Rosenzweig, B and Arend, M and Gaffin, S and Bou-Zeid, E and Rule, K and Sweeny, G and Dessy, W}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report. Chapter 6: Indicators and monitoring.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, number = {}, pages = {89-106}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12587}, pmid = {25688948}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Ecological Parameter Monitoring ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; }, }
@article {pmid25688947, year = {2015}, author = {Kinney, PL and Matte, T and Knowlton, K and Madrigano, J and Petkova, E and Weinberger, K and Quinn, A and Arend, M and Pullen, J}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report. Chapter 5: Public health impacts and resiliency.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, number = {}, pages = {67-88}, pmid = {25688947}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T32 ES023770/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; Floods ; Foodborne Diseases ; Health Impact Assessment/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; Public Health ; Water Pollution ; }, }
@article {pmid25688946, year = {2015}, author = {Orton, P and Vinogradov, S and Georgas, N and Blumberg, A and Lin, N and Gornitz, V and Little, C and Jacob, K and Horton, R}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report. Chapter 4: Dynamic coastal flood modeling.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, number = {}, pages = {56-66}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12589}, pmid = {25688946}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; *Floods ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; Oceans and Seas ; }, }
@article {pmid25688945, year = {2015}, author = {Patrick, L and Solecki, W and Jacob, KH and Kunreuther, H and Nordenson, G}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report. Chapter 3: Static coastal flood mapping.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, number = {}, pages = {45-55}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12590}, pmid = {25688945}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Floods ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; Oceans and Seas ; Risk ; }, }
@article {pmid25688944, year = {2015}, author = {Horton, R and Little, C and Gornitz, V and Bader, D and Oppenheimer, M}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report. Chapter 2: Sea level rise and coastal storms.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, number = {}, pages = {36-44}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12593}, pmid = {25688944}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms/*economics ; Disasters/*economics ; Floods ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; Oceans and Seas ; }, }
@article {pmid25688943, year = {2015}, author = {Horton, R and Bader, D and Kushnir, Y and Little, C and Blake, R and Rosenzweig, C}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report. Chapter 1: Climate observations and projections.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, number = {}, pages = {18-35}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12586}, pmid = {25688943}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; Rain ; Risk ; }, }
@article {pmid25688942, year = {2015}, author = {}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report. Executive summary.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, number = {}, pages = {9-17}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12591}, pmid = {25688942}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; Floods ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; Oceans and Seas ; Public Health ; Rain ; }, }
@article {pmid25688941, year = {2015}, author = {Rosenzweig, C and Solecki, W}, title = {Preface to Building the Knowledge Base for Climate Resiliency: New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, number = {}, pages = {7}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12653}, pmid = {25688941}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; }, }
@article {pmid25688940, year = {2015}, author = {de Blasio, B}, title = {Foreword to Building the Knowledge Base for Climate Resiliency: New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, number = {}, pages = {6}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12654}, pmid = {25688940}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; Oceans and Seas ; }, }
@article {pmid25688939, year = {2015}, author = {Rosenzweig, C and Solecki, W}, title = {New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report introduction.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1336}, number = {}, pages = {3-5}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12625}, pmid = {25688939}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; Disasters ; Humans ; Local Government ; New York City ; }, }
@article {pmid25688790, year = {2015}, author = {Patz, JA and Frumkin, H and Haines, A}, title = {Adapting to climate change--reply.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {313}, number = {7}, pages = {727-728}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2014.18525}, pmid = {25688790}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid25688789, year = {2015}, author = {Huang, C and Street, R and Chu, C}, title = {Adapting to climate change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {313}, number = {7}, pages = {727}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2014.18502}, pmid = {25688789}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid25688025, year = {2015}, author = {Parham, PE and Waldock, J and Christophides, GK and Michael, E}, title = {Climate change and vector-borne diseases of humans.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {370}, number = {1665}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2014.0377}, pmid = {25688025}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25688023, year = {2015}, author = {Campbell, LP and Luther, C and Moo-Llanes, D and Ramsey, JM and Danis-Lozano, R and Peterson, AT}, title = {Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {370}, number = {1665}, pages = {}, pmid = {25688023}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Aedes/*virology ; Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Chikungunya Fever/epidemiology/transmission/virology ; *Chikungunya virus ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/epidemiology/transmission/virology ; Dengue Virus/*physiology ; Global Health ; Insect Vectors/*virology ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Numerous recent studies have illuminated global distributions of human cases of dengue and other mosquito-transmitted diseases, yet the potential distributions of key vector species have not been incorporated integrally into those mapping efforts. Projections onto future conditions to illuminate potential distributional shifts in coming decades are similarly lacking, at least outside Europe. This study examined the global potential distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to climatic variation worldwide to develop ecological niche models that, in turn, allowed anticipation of possible changes in distributional patterns into the future. Results indicated complex global rearrangements of potential distributional areas, which--given the impressive dispersal abilities of these two species--are likely to translate into actual distributional shifts. This exercise also signalled a crucial priority: digitization and sharing of existing distributional data so that models of this sort can be developed more rigorously, as present availability of such data is fragmentary and woefully incomplete.}, }
@article {pmid25688022, year = {2015}, author = {Ostfeld, RS and Brunner, JL}, title = {Climate change and Ixodes tick-borne diseases of humans.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {370}, number = {1665}, pages = {}, pmid = {25688022}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Ixodes ; Tick-Borne Diseases/epidemiology/*transmission ; }, abstract = {The evidence that climate warming is changing the distribution of Ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit is reviewed and evaluated. The primary approaches are either phenomenological, which typically assume that climate alone limits current and future distributions, or mechanistic, asking which tick-demographic parameters are affected by specific abiotic conditions. Both approaches have promise but are severely limited when applied separately. For instance, phenomenological approaches (e.g. climate envelope models) often select abiotic variables arbitrarily and produce results that can be hard to interpret biologically. On the other hand, although laboratory studies demonstrate strict temperature and humidity thresholds for tick survival, these limits rarely apply to field situations. Similarly, no studies address the influence of abiotic conditions on more than a few life stages, transitions or demographic processes, preventing comprehensive assessments. Nevertheless, despite their divergent approaches, both mechanistic and phenomenological models suggest dramatic range expansions of Ixodes ticks and tick-borne disease as the climate warms. The predicted distributions, however, vary strongly with the models' assumptions, which are rarely tested against reasonable alternatives. These inconsistencies, limited data about key tick-demographic and climatic processes and only limited incorporation of non-climatic processes have weakened the application of this rich area of research to public health policy or actions. We urge further investigation of the influence of climate on vertebrate hosts and tick-borne pathogen dynamics. In addition, testing model assumptions and mechanisms in a range of natural contexts and comparing their relative importance as competing models in a rigorous statistical framework will significantly advance our understanding of how climate change will alter the distribution, dynamics and risk of tick-borne disease.}, }
@article {pmid25688020, year = {2015}, author = {Paz, S}, title = {Climate change impacts on West Nile virus transmission in a global context.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {370}, number = {1665}, pages = {}, pmid = {25688020}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Culicidae/*physiology ; Global Health ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*physiology ; West Nile Fever/epidemiology/*transmission/virology ; West Nile virus/*physiology ; }, abstract = {West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed virus of the encephalitic flaviviruses, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The transmission cycle exists in rural and urban areas where the virus infects birds, humans, horses and other mammals. Multiple factors impact the transmission and distribution of WNV, related to the dynamics and interactions between pathogen, vector, vertebrate hosts and environment. Hence, among other drivers, weather conditions have direct and indirect influences on vector competence (the ability to acquire, maintain and transmit the virus), on the vector population dynamic and on the virus replication rate within the mosquito, which are mostly weather dependent. The importance of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and winds) as drivers in WNV epidemiology is increasing under conditions of climate change. Indeed, recent changes in climatic conditions, particularly increased ambient temperature and fluctuations in rainfall amounts, contributed to the maintenance (endemization process) of WNV in various locations in southern Europe, western Asia, the eastern Mediterranean, the Canadian Prairies, parts of the USA and Australia. As predictions show that the current trends are expected to continue, for better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should take into consideration the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25688019, year = {2015}, author = {Medone, P and Ceccarelli, S and Parham, PE and Figuera, A and Rabinovich, JE}, title = {The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {370}, number = {1665}, pages = {}, pmid = {25688019}, issn = {1471-2970}, support = {062984/Z/00Z//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; Argentina ; Chagas Disease/epidemiology/*transmission ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Triatominae/parasitology/*physiology ; Venezuela ; }, abstract = {Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach.}, }
@article {pmid25688014, year = {2015}, author = {Hoberg, EP and Brooks, DR}, title = {Evolution in action: climate change, biodiversity dynamics and emerging infectious disease.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {370}, number = {1665}, pages = {}, pmid = {25688014}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; Humans ; Introduced Species ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climatological variation and ecological perturbation have been pervasive drivers of faunal assembly, structure and diversification for parasites and pathogens through recurrent events of geographical and host colonization at varying spatial and temporal scales of Earth history. Episodic shifts in climate and environmental settings, in conjunction with ecological mechanisms and host switching, are often critical determinants of parasite diversification, a view counter to more than a century of coevolutionary thinking about the nature of complex host-parasite assemblages. Parasites are resource specialists with restricted host ranges, yet shifts onto relatively unrelated hosts are common during phylogenetic diversification of parasite lineages and directly observable in real time. The emerging Stockholm Paradigm resolves this paradox: Ecological Fitting (EF)--phenotypic flexibility and phylogenetic conservatism in traits related to resource use, most notably host preference--provides many opportunities for rapid host switching in changing environments, without the evolution of novel host-utilization capabilities. Host shifts via EF fuel the expansion phase of the Oscillation Hypothesis of host range and speciation and, more generally, the generation of novel combinations of interacting species within the Geographic Mosaic Theory of Coevolution. In synergy, an environmental dynamic of Taxon Pulses establishes an episodic context for host and geographical colonization.}, }
@article {pmid25688013, year = {2015}, author = {Campbell-Lendrum, D and Manga, L and Bagayoko, M and Sommerfeld, J}, title = {Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {370}, number = {1665}, pages = {}, pmid = {25688013}, issn = {1471-2970}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Biomedical Research ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Public Health Administration ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups.}, }
@article {pmid25685530, year = {2014}, author = {Lotfy, WM}, title = {Climate change and epidemiology of human parasitosis in Egypt: A review.}, journal = {Journal of advanced research}, volume = {5}, number = {6}, pages = {607-613}, pmid = {25685530}, issn = {2090-1232}, abstract = {Climate change is an emerging global issue. It is expected to have significant impacts both in Egypt and around the world. Thus, the country is in need for taking action to prepare for the unavoidable effects of climate change, including the increase in water stress, the rise in sea level, and the rapidly increasing gap between the limited water availability and the escalating demand for water in the country. Also, weather and climate play a significant role in people's health. Direct impacts of climate change on the Egyptians public health may include also increased prevalence of human parasitic diseases. Climate could strongly influence parasitic diseases transmitted through intermediate hosts. The present work reviews the future of such parasitic diseases in the view of the current available evidence and scenarios for climate change in the Egypt.}, }
@article {pmid25682386, year = {2015}, author = {Schwartz, SA}, title = {Two roads converge in a yellowing wood-shamanism, science, and climate change.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {85-88}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2014.12.006}, pmid = {25682386}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Consciousness ; Culture ; Humans ; Quality of Life ; *Science ; *Shamanism ; }, }
@article {pmid25682220, year = {2015}, author = {Chen, Y and Li, Z and Fan, Y and Wang, H and Deng, H}, title = {Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {139}, number = {}, pages = {11-19}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2014.12.029}, pmid = {25682220}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Desert Climate ; Hydrology/*trends ; Ice Cover ; Models, Statistical ; Rain ; Snow ; *Water Cycle ; Water Resources/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation.}, }
@article {pmid25680630, year = {2015}, author = {Junk, J and Ulber, B and Vidal, S and Eickermann, M}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {59}, number = {11}, pages = {1597-1605}, pmid = {25680630}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Bias ; Brassica rapa/*parasitology ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Germany ; *Models, Theoretical ; Plant Stems/parasitology ; Weather ; Weevils/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.}, }
@article {pmid25678723, year = {2014}, author = {van der Linden, S}, title = {On the relationship between personal experience, affect and risk perception: The case of climate change.}, journal = {European journal of social psychology}, volume = {44}, number = {5}, pages = {430-440}, pmid = {25678723}, issn = {0046-2772}, abstract = {Examining the conceptual relationship between personal experience, affect, and risk perception is crucial in improving our understanding of how emotional and cognitive process mechanisms shape public perceptions of climate change. This study is the first to investigate the interrelated nature of these variables by contrasting three prominent social-psychological theories. In the first model, affect is viewed as a fast and associative information processing heuristic that guides perceptions of risk. In the second model, affect is seen as flowing from cognitive appraisals (i.e., affect is thought of as a post-cognitive process). Lastly, a third, dual-process model is advanced that integrates aspects from both theoretical perspectives. Four structural equation models were tested on a national sample (N = 808) of British respondents. Results initially provide support for the "cognitive" model, where personal experience with extreme weather is best conceptualized as a predictor of climate change risk perception and, in turn, risk perception a predictor of affect. Yet, closer examination strongly indicates that at the same time, risk perception and affect reciprocally influence each other in a stable feedback system. It is therefore concluded that both theoretical claims are valid and that a dual-process perspective provides a superior fit to the data. Implications for theory and risk communication are discussed. © 2014 The Authors. European Journal of Social Psychology published by John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.}, }
@article {pmid25674502, year = {2015}, author = {Nguyen, AL and Truong, MH and Verreth, JA and Leemans, R and Bosma, RH and De Silva, SS}, title = {Exploring the climate change concerns of striped catfish producers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {46}, pmid = {25674502}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {This study investigated the perceptions on and adaptations to climate change impacts of 235 pangasius farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Data were collected using semi-structured household surveys in six provinces, from three regions along the Mekong river branches. A Chi-Square test was used to determine the association between variables, and a logit regression model was employed to identify factors correlated with farmer's perception and adaptation. Less than half of respondents were concerned about climate change and sought suitable adaptation measures to alleviate its impacts. Improving information on climate change and introducing early warning systems could improve the adaptive capacity of pangasius farmers, in particularly for those farmers, who were not concerned yet. Farmers relied strongly on technical support from government agencies, but farmers in the coastal provinces did not express the need for training by these institutions. This contrasting result requires further assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation measures such as breeding salinity tolerant pangasius.}, }
@article {pmid25673000, year = {2015}, author = {Holt, RE and Jørgensen, C}, title = {Climate change in fish: effects of respiratory constraints on optimal life history and behaviour.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {20141032}, pmid = {25673000}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Animals ; Basal Metabolism ; Behavior, Animal ; *Climate Change ; Energy Metabolism ; Gadus morhua/metabolism/*physiology ; Hot Temperature ; Life Cycle Stages/physiology ; Oxygen/*metabolism ; Oxygen Consumption ; }, abstract = {The difference between maximum metabolic rate and standard metabolic rate is referred to as aerobic scope, and because it constrains performance it is suggested to constitute a key limiting process prescribing how fish may cope with or adapt to climate warming. We use an evolutionary bioenergetics model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to predict optimal life histories and behaviours at different temperatures. The model assumes common trade-offs and predicts that optimal temperatures for growth and fitness lie below that for aerobic scope; aerobic scope is thus a poor predictor of fitness at high temperatures. Initially, warming expands aerobic scope, allowing for faster growth and increased reproduction. Beyond the optimal temperature for fitness, increased metabolic requirements intensify foraging and reduce survival; oxygen budgeting conflicts thus constrain successful completion of the life cycle. The model illustrates how physiological adaptations are part of a suite of traits that have coevolved.}, }
@article {pmid25672480, year = {2015}, author = {Uthicke, S and Logan, M and Liddy, M and Francis, D and Hardy, N and Lamare, M}, title = {Climate change as an unexpected co-factor promoting coral eating seastar (Acanthaster planci) outbreaks.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {8402}, pmid = {25672480}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; *Starfish ; }, abstract = {Coral reefs face a crisis due to local and global anthropogenic stressors. A large proportion of the ~50% coral loss on the Great Barrier Reef has been attributed to outbreaks of the crown-of-thorns-seastar (COTS). A widely assumed cause of primary COTS outbreaks is increased larval survivorship due to higher food availability, linked with anthropogenic runoff . Our experiment using a range of algal food concentrations at three temperatures representing present day average and predicted future increases, demonstrated a strong influence of food concentration on development is modulated by temperature. A 2°C increase in temperature led to a 4.2-4.9 times (at Day 10) or 1.2-1.8 times (Day 17) increase in late development larvae. A model indicated that food was the main driver, but that temperature was an important modulator of development. For instance, at 5000 cells ml(-1) food, a 2°C increase may shorten developmental time by 30% and may increase the probability of survival by 240%. The main contribution of temperature is to 'push' well-fed larvae faster to settlement. We conclude that warmer sea temperature is an important co-factor promoting COTS outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid25671793, year = {2016}, author = {Ziska, LH and McConnell, LL}, title = {Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide, and Pest Biology: Monitor, Mitigate, Manage.}, journal = {Journal of agricultural and food chemistry}, volume = {64}, number = {1}, pages = {6-12}, doi = {10.1021/jf506101h}, pmid = {25671793}, issn = {1520-5118}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Insecta/*growth &amp; development ; *Pest Control/economics ; Plant Weeds/*growth &amp; development ; *Weed Control/economics ; }, abstract = {Rising concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO2]) and subsequent changes in climate, including temperature and precipitation extremes, are very likely to alter pest pressures in both managed and unmanaged plant communities. Such changes in pest pressures can be positive (migration from a region) or negative (new introductions), but are likely to be accompanied by significant economic and environmental consequences. Recent studies indicate the range of invasive weeds such as kudzu and insects such as mountain pine beetle have already expanded to more northern regions as temperatures have risen. To reduce these consequences, a better understanding of the link between CO2/climate and pest biology is needed in the context of existing and new strategies for pest management. This paper provides an overview of the probable biological links and the vulnerabilities of existing pest management (especially chemical control) and provides a preliminary synthesis of research needs that could potentially improve the ability to monitor, mitigate, and manage pest impacts.}, }
@article {pmid25671564, year = {2015}, author = {Rao, MS and Swathi, P and Rao, CA and Rao, KV and Raju, BM and Srinivas, K and Manimanjari, D and Maheswari, M}, title = {Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {e0116762}, pmid = {25671564}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Arachis ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Statistical ; *Spodoptera ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 &amp; CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.}, }
@article {pmid25671171, year = {2014}, author = {Habibi, L and Perry, G and Mahmoudi, M}, title = {Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage.}, journal = {BioImpacts : BI}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {167-170}, pmid = {25671171}, issn = {2228-5652}, support = {G12 MD007591/MD/NIMHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders.}, }
@article {pmid25669818, year = {2015}, author = {Goodman, B}, title = {Climate change and ecological public health.}, journal = {Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987)}, volume = {29}, number = {24}, pages = {37-41}, doi = {10.7748/ns.29.24.37.e9670}, pmid = {25669818}, issn = {2047-9018}, mesh = {Climate Change/*mortality/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Health Promotion/methods ; Humans ; Nurse's Role ; Public Health/*standards/statistics &amp; numerical data ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been identified as a serious threat to human health, associated with the sustainability of current practices and lifestyles. Nurses should expand their health promotion role to address current and emerging threats to health from climate change and to address ecological public health. This article briefly outlines climate change and the concept of ecological public health, and discusses a 2012 review of the role of the nurse in health promotion.}, }
@article {pmid25668390, year = {2015}, author = {Argüeso, D and Evans, JP and Pitman, AJ and Di Luca, A}, title = {Effects of city expansion on heat stress under climate change conditions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {e0117066}, pmid = {25668390}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Humidity ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort.}, }
@article {pmid25667601, year = {2015}, author = {Chown, SL and Hodgins, KA and Griffin, PC and Oakeshott, JG and Byrne, M and Hoffmann, AA}, title = {Biological invasions, climate change and genomics.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {23-46}, pmid = {25667601}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {The rate of biological invasions is expected to increase as the effects of climate change on biological communities become widespread. Climate change enhances habitat disturbance which facilitates the establishment of invasive species, which in turn provides opportunities for hybridization and introgression. These effects influence local biodiversity that can be tracked through genetic and genomic approaches. Metabarcoding and metagenomic approaches provide a way of monitoring some types of communities under climate change for the appearance of invasives. Introgression and hybridization can be followed by the analysis of entire genomes so that rapidly changing areas of the genome are identified and instances of genetic pollution monitored. Genomic markers enable accurate tracking of invasive species' geographic origin well beyond what was previously possible. New genomic tools are promoting fresh insights into classic questions about invading organisms under climate change, such as the role of genetic variation, local adaptation and climate pre-adaptation in successful invasions. These tools are providing managers with often more effective means to identify potential threats, improve surveillance and assess impacts on communities. We provide a framework for the application of genomic techniques within a management context and also indicate some important limitations in what can be achieved.}, }
@article {pmid25666284, year = {2015}, author = {Steffens, K and Jarvis, N and Lewan, E and Lindström, B and Kreuger, J and Kjellström, E and Moeys, J}, title = {Direct and indirect effects of climate change on herbicide leaching--a regional scale assessment in Sweden.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {514}, number = {}, pages = {239-249}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.12.049}, pmid = {25666284}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Groundwater/chemistry ; Herbicides/*analysis ; Models, Chemical ; Sweden ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change is not only likely to improve conditions for crop production in Sweden, but also to increase weed pressure and the need for herbicides. This study aimed at assessing and contrasting the direct and indirect effects of climate change on herbicide leaching to groundwater in a major crop production region in south-west Sweden with the help of the regional pesticide fate and transport model MACRO-SE. We simulated 37 out of the 41 herbicides that are currently approved for use in Sweden on eight major crop types for the 24 most common soil types in the region. The results were aggregated accounting for the fractional coverage of the crop and the area sprayed with a particular herbicide. For simulations of the future, we used projections of five different climate models as model driving data and assessed three different future scenarios: (A) only changes in climate, (B) changes in climate and land-use (altered crop distribution), and (C) changes in climate, land-use, and an increase in herbicide use. The model successfully distinguished between leachable and non-leachable compounds (88% correctly classified) in a qualitative comparison against regional-scale monitoring data. Leaching was dominated by only a few herbicides and crops under current climate and agronomic conditions. The model simulations suggest that the direct effects of an increase in temperature, which enhances degradation, and precipitation which promotes leaching, cancel each other at a regional scale, resulting in a slight decrease in leachate concentrations in a future climate. However, the area at risk of groundwater contamination doubled when indirect effects of changes in land-use and herbicide use, were considered. We therefore concluded that it is important to consider the indirect effects of climate change alongside the direct effects and that effective mitigation strategies and strict regulation are required to secure future (drinking) water resources.}, }
@article {pmid25664458, year = {2015}, author = {Takaro, TK and Henderson, SB}, title = {Climate change primer for respirologists.}, journal = {Canadian respiratory journal}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {52-54}, pmid = {25664458}, issn = {1916-7245}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology ; *Climate Change ; Fires ; Floods ; Fungi/immunology ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Pollen/immunology ; Pulmonary Medicine ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*etiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already affecting the cardiorespiratory health of populations around the world, and these impacts are expected to increase. The present overview serves as a primer for respirologists who are concerned about how these profound environmental changes may affect their patients. The authors consider recent peer-reviewed literature with a focus on climate interactions with air pollution. They do not discuss in detail cardiorespiratory health effects for which the potential link to climate change is poorly understood. For example, pneumonia and influenza, which affect >500 million people per year, are not addressed, although clear seasonal variation suggests climate-related effects. Additionally, large global health impacts in low-resource countries, including migration precipitated by environmental change, are omitted. The major cardiorespiratory health impacts addressed are due to heat, air pollution and wildfires, shifts in allergens and infectious diseases along with respiratory impacts from flooding. Personal and societal choices about carbon use and fossil energy infrastructure should be informed by their impacts on health, and respirologists can play an important role in this discussion.}, }
@article {pmid25663330, year = {2015}, author = {Golodets, C and Sternberg, M and Kigel, J and Boeken, B and Henkin, Z and Seligman, NG and Ungar, ED}, title = {Climate change scenarios of herbaceous production along an aridity gradient: vulnerability increases with aridity.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {177}, number = {4}, pages = {971-979}, pmid = {25663330}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Biomass ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Ecosystem ; *Grassland ; *Rain ; *Stress, Physiological ; Water ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to reduce annual precipitation by 20% and increase its standard deviation by 20% in the eastern Mediterranean. We have examined how these changes may affect herbaceous aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and its inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) in natural rangelands along a desert-Mediterranean precipitation gradient, at five sites representing arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean-type ecosystems, respectively, all showing positive linear relationships between herbaceous ANPP and annual precipitation. Scenarios of reduced annual precipitation and increased inter-annual precipitation variability were defined by manipulating mean annual precipitation (MAP) and its standard deviation. We simulated precipitation and calculated ANPP using current ANPP-precipitation relationships. Our model predicts that reduced precipitation will strongly reduce ANPP in arid and semi-arid sites. Moreover, the effect of reduced precipitation on the CV of ANPP along the entire gradient may be modified by changes in inter-annual variability in MAP. Reduced precipitation combined with increased precipitation variability was the scenario most relevant to the wet end of the gradient, due to the increased likelihood for both dry and rainy years. In contrast, the scenario most relevant to the arid end of the gradient combined reduced precipitation with decreased precipitation variability, due to the strong effect on mean ANPP. All scenarios increased variability of ANPP along the entire gradient. However, the higher sensitivity of vegetation at arid and semi-arid sites (i.e., lower forage production) to future changes in the precipitation regime emphasizes the need to adapt grazing management in these ecosystems to secure their long-term viability as sustainable rangelands.}, }
@article {pmid25662784, year = {2015}, author = {Gallinat, AS and Primack, RB and Wagner, DL}, title = {Autumn, the neglected season in climate change research.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {169-176}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2015.01.004}, pmid = {25662784}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Introduced Species ; Plants ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Autumn remains a relatively neglected season in climate change research in temperate and arctic ecosystems. This neglect occurs despite the importance of autumn events, including leaf senescence, fruit ripening, bird and insect migration, and induction of hibernation and diapause. Changes in autumn phenology alter the reproductive capacity of individuals, exacerbate invasions, allow pathogen amplification and higher disease-transmission rates, reshuffle natural enemy-prey dynamics, shift the ecological dynamics among interacting species, and affect the net productivity of ecosystems. We synthesize some of our existing understanding of autumn phenology and identify five areas ripe for future climate change research. We provide recommendations to address common pitfalls in autumnal research as well as to support the conservation and management of vulnerable ecosystems and taxa.}, }
@article {pmid25660631, year = {2015}, author = {Valenzuela-Ceballos, S and Castañeda, G and Rioja-Paradela, T and Carrillo-Reyes, A and Bastiaans, E}, title = {Variation in the thermal ecology of an endemic iguana from Mexico reduces its vulnerability to global warming.}, journal = {Journal of thermal biology}, volume = {48}, number = {}, pages = {56-64}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtherbio.2014.12.011}, pmid = {25660631}, issn = {0306-4565}, mesh = {Animals ; *Behavior, Animal ; Body Temperature ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Iguanas/*physiology ; Male ; Mexico ; Models, Theoretical ; Plants ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The persistence of reptile populations in a specific location is influenced by individuals' capacity to regulate their body temperatures, among other factors. Anthropogenic climate change may pose a risk to the survival of ectothermic animals due to their dependence on external heat sources to thermoregulate. In this study, we calculated indices of thermal habitat quality, thermoregulatory precision, and thermoregulatory effectiveness for the endemic spiny-tailed iguana Ctenosaura oaxacana. We evaluated these indices and the thermoregulatory behavior of the iguanas in the four types of vegetation that provide the most favorable conditions for thermoregulation. We also performed our experiments during both the wet and dry seasons to capture the full range of thermal conditions available to C. oaxacana over the course of a year. Finally, we evaluated the potential niche for the iguana in the years 2020, 2050, and 2080. Thermoregulation depends on both seasonal and environmental factors in this species. We found that thermoregulation effectiveness in both wet and dry seasons depends not only on the thermal conditions of the immediate environment, but also on the cover vegetation and habitat structure available across the range of habitats the species uses. Thus, heterogeneous habitats with dispersed vegetation may be most suitable for this species' thermoregulatory strategy. Likewise, niche modeling results suggested that suitable habitat for our study species may continue to be available for the next few decades, despite global warming tendencies, as long as cover vegetation remains unaltered. Our results suggest that thermoregulation is a complex process that cannot be generalized for all ectothermic species inhabiting a given region. We also found that temperature changes are not the only factor one must consider when estimating the risk of species loss. To understand the necessary thermal conditions and extinction risk for any ectothermic species, it is necessary to focus studies on the species' general ecology.}, }
@article {pmid25657095, year = {2015}, author = {Sorg, A and Kääb, A and Roesch, A and Bigler, C and Stoffel, M}, title = {Contrasting responses of Central Asian rock glaciers to global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {8228}, pmid = {25657095}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {While the responses of Tien Shan glaciers--and glaciers elsewhere--to climatic changes are becoming increasingly well understood, this is less the case for permafrost in general and for rock glaciers in particular. We use a novel approach to describe the climate sensitivity of rock glaciers and to reconstruct periods of high and low rock glacier activity in the Tien Shan since 1895. Using more than 1500 growth anomalies from 280 trees growing on rock glacier bodies, repeat aerial photography from Soviet archives and high-resolution satellite imagery, we present here the world's longest record of rock glacier movements. We also demonstrate that the rock glaciers exhibit synchronous periods of activity at decadal timescales. Despite the complex energy-balance processes on rock glaciers, periods of enhanced activity coincide with warm summers, and the annual mass balance of Tuyuksu glacier fluctuates asynchronously with rock glacier activity. At multi-decadal timescales, however, the investigated rock glaciers exhibit site-specific trends reflecting different stages of inactivation, seemingly in response to the strong increase in air temperature since the 1970s.}, }
@article {pmid25652911, year = {2015}, author = {Knapp, AK and Hoover, DL and Wilcox, KR and Avolio, ML and Koerner, SE and La Pierre, KJ and Loik, ME and Luo, Y and Sala, OE and Smith, MD}, title = {Characterizing differences in precipitation regimes of extreme wet and dry years: implications for climate change experiments.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {7}, pages = {2624-2633}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12888}, pmid = {25652911}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years. Beyond precipitation amount, extreme wet and dry years may differ in other ways, such as the number of precipitation events, event size, and the time between events. We assessed 1614 long-term (100 year) precipitation records from around the world to identify key attributes of precipitation regimes, besides amount, that distinguish statistically extreme wet from extreme dry years. In general, in regions where mean annual precipitation (MAP) exceeded 1000 mm, precipitation amounts in extreme wet and dry years differed from average years by ~40% and 30%, respectively. The magnitude of these deviations increased to >60% for dry years and to >150% for wet years in arid regions (MAP<500 mm). Extreme wet years were primarily distinguished from average and extreme dry years by the presence of multiple extreme (large) daily precipitation events (events >99th percentile of all events); these occurred twice as often in extreme wet years compared to average years. In contrast, these large precipitation events were rare in extreme dry years. Less important for distinguishing extreme wet from dry years were mean event size and frequency, or the number of dry days between events. However, extreme dry years were distinguished from average years by an increase in the number of dry days between events. These precipitation regime attributes consistently differed between extreme wet and dry years across 12 major terrestrial ecoregions from around the world, from deserts to the tropics. Thus, we recommend that climate change experiments and model simulations incorporate these differences in key precipitation regime attributes, as well as amount into treatments. This will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences.}, }
@article {pmid25647018, year = {2015}, author = {Michelutti, N and Wolfe, AP and Cooke, CA and Hobbs, WO and Vuille, M and Smol, JP}, title = {Climate change forces new ecological states in tropical Andean lakes.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {e0115338}, pmid = {25647018}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Diatoms ; Fossils ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Lakes/chemistry ; South America ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Air temperatures in the tropical Andes have risen at an accelerated rate relative to the global average over recent decades. However, the effects of climate change on Andean lakes, which are vital to sustaining regional biodiversity and serve as an important water resource to local populations, remain largely unknown. Here, we show that recent climate changes have forced alpine lakes of the equatorial Andes towards new ecological and physical states, in close synchrony to the rapid shrinkage of glaciers regionally. Using dated sediment cores from three lakes in the southern Sierra of Ecuador, we record abrupt increases in the planktonic thalassiosiroid diatom Discostella stelligera from trace abundances to dominance within the phytoplankton. This unprecedented shift occurs against the backdrop of rising temperatures, changing atmospheric pressure fields, and declining wind speeds. Ecological restructuring in these lakes is linked to warming and/or enhanced water column stratification. In contrast to seasonally ice-covered Arctic and temperate alpine counterparts, aquatic production has not increased universally with warming, and has even declined in some lakes, possibly because enhanced thermal stability impedes the re-circulation of hypolimnetic nutrients to surface waters. Our results demonstrate that these lakes have already passed important ecological thresholds, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Andean water resources.}, }
@article {pmid25646122, year = {2014}, author = {Boettcher, PJ and Hoffmann, I and Baumung, R and Drucker, AG and McManus, C and Berg, P and Stella, A and Nilsen, LB and Moran, D and Naves, M and Thompson, MC}, title = {Genetic resources and genomics for adaptation of livestock to climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in genetics}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {461}, pmid = {25646122}, issn = {1664-8021}, }
@article {pmid25644514, year = {2015}, author = {Jarzyna, MA and Porter, WF and Maurer, BA and Zuckerberg, B and Finley, AO}, title = {Landscape fragmentation affects responses of avian communities to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {2942-2953}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12885}, pmid = {25644514}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Models, Theoretical ; New York ; }, abstract = {Forecasting the consequences of climate change is contingent upon our understanding of the relationship between biodiversity patterns and climatic variability. While the impacts of climate change on individual species have been well-documented, there is a paucity of studies on climate-mediated changes in community dynamics. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between temporal turnover in avian biodiversity and changes in climatic conditions and to assess the role of landscape fragmentation in affecting this relationship. We hypothesized that community turnover would be highest in regions experiencing the most pronounced changes in climate and that these patterns would be reduced in human-dominated landscapes. To test this hypothesis, we quantified temporal turnover in avian communities over a 20-year period using data from the New York State Breeding Atlases collected during 1980-1985 and 2000-2005. We applied Bayesian spatially varying intercept models to evaluate the relationship between temporal turnover and temporal trends in climatic conditions and landscape fragmentation. We found that models including interaction terms between climate change and landscape fragmentation were superior to models without the interaction terms, suggesting that the relationship between avian community turnover and changes in climatic conditions was affected by the level of landscape fragmentation. Specifically, we found weaker associations between temporal turnover and climatic change in regions with prevalent habitat fragmentation. We suggest that avian communities in fragmented landscapes are more robust to climate change than communities found in contiguous habitats because they are comprised of species with wider thermal niches and thus are less susceptible to shifts in climatic variability. We conclude that highly fragmented regions are likely to undergo less pronounced changes in composition and structure of faunal communities as a result of climate change, whereas those changes are likely to be greater in contiguous and unfragmented habitats.}, }
@article {pmid25644484, year = {2015}, author = {Thorpe, RS and Barlow, A and Malhotra, A and Surget-Groba, Y}, title = {Widespread parallel population adaptation to climate variation across a radiation: implications for adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {1019-1030}, doi = {10.1111/mec.13093}, pmid = {25644484}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Altitude ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; *Genetics, Population ; Lizards/anatomy &amp; histology/*genetics ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; Quantitative Trait, Heritable ; Rainforest ; West Indies ; }, abstract = {Global warming will impact species in a number of ways, and it is important to know the extent to which natural populations can adapt to anthropogenic climate change by natural selection. Parallel microevolution within separate species can demonstrate natural selection, but several studies of homoplasy have not yet revealed examples of widespread parallel evolution in a generic radiation. Taking into account primary phylogeographic divisions, we investigate numerous quantitative traits (size, shape, scalation, colour pattern and hue) in anole radiations from the mountainous Lesser Antillean islands. Adaptation to climatic differences can lead to very pronounced differences between spatially close populations with all studied traits showing some evidence of parallel evolution. Traits from shape, scalation, pattern and hue (particularly the latter) show widespread evolutionary parallels within these species in response to altitudinal climate variation greater than extreme anthropogenic climate change predicted for 2080. This gives strong evidence of the ability to adapt to climate variation by natural selection throughout this radiation. As anoles can evolve very rapidly, it suggests anthropogenic climate change is likely to be less of a conservation threat than other factors, such as habitat loss and invasive species, in this, Lesser Antillean, biodiversity hot spot.}, }
@article {pmid25642715, year = {2014}, author = {Galletto, L and Barisan, L and Boatto, V and Costantini, EA and Lorenzetti, R and Pomarici, E and Vecchio, R}, title = {More crop for drop - climate change and wine: an economic evaluation of a new drought-resistant rootstock.}, journal = {Recent patents on food, nutrition &amp; agriculture}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {100-112}, doi = {10.2174/2212798407666150131140611}, pmid = {25642715}, issn = {1876-1429}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; *Droughts ; Time Factors ; Vitis/genetics/*physiology ; Water ; Wine/*economics ; }, abstract = {The current paper presents the results of an economic evaluation of a new drought-resistant rootstock (M4), capable to maintain in adverse environmental conditions high photosynthetic activity, to accumulate osmotic compounds and to compensate for the accumulation of sodium and chlorine in the grapevines, in two core Italian grapevine growing areas: the North-East and Sicily. After collecting data on quantitative (yield per plant in kg) and qualitative parameters (°Brix, anthocyanins, pH) of experimental vineyards (Cabernet Sauvignon variety) planted using the traditional rootstock 1103P and the innovative M4 rootstock, over a seven-year period, a cost-benefit analysis calculated the effects of replacing the traditional rootstock. The results show that M4 rootstock yields higher net revenues compared to the best situation of 1103P rootstock, roughly in 40% of North-East vineyards and in more than 80% of their Sicilian counterparts. In addition, 14% of North-East vineyards and more than 94% of Sicilian vineyards are currently exposed to drought risk, and these areas are expected to increase in the coming years. Thus the M4 rootstock, as other related innovations [51-53], could significantly improve watersaving strategies, which are gaining increasing attention from both public bodies and wine companies.}, }
@article {pmid25641384, year = {2015}, author = {Connette, GM and Crawford, JA and Peterman, WE}, title = {Climate change and shrinking salamanders: alternative mechanisms for changes in plethodontid salamander body size.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {2834-2843}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12883}, pmid = {25641384}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; North Carolina ; Rain ; Urodela/*anatomy &amp; histology ; }, abstract = {An increasing number of studies have demonstrated relationships between climate trends and body size change of organisms. In many cases, climate might be expected to influence body size by altering thermoregulation, energetics or food availability. However, observed body size change can result from a variety of ecological processes (e.g. growth, selection, population dynamics) or imperfect observation of biological systems. We used two extensive datasets to evaluate alternative mechanisms for recently reported changes in the observed body size of plethodontid salamanders. We found that mean adult body size of salamanders can be highly sensitive to survey conditions, particularly rainfall. This systematic bias in the detection of larger or smaller individuals could result in a signature of body size change in relation to reported climate trends when it is simply observation error. We also identify considerable variability in body size distributions among years and find that individual growth rates can be strongly influenced by weather. Finally, our study demonstrates that measures of mean adult body size can be highly variable among surveys and that large sample sizes may be required to make reliable inferences. Identifying the effects of climate change is a critical area of research in ecology and conservation. Researchers should be aware that observed changes in certain organisms can result from multiple ecological processes or systematic bias due to nonrandom sampling of populations.}, }
@article {pmid25638963, year = {2014}, author = {Glassberg, D}, title = {Place, memory, and climate change.}, journal = {The Public historian}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {17-30}, doi = {10.1525/tph.2014.36.3.17}, pmid = {25638963}, issn = {0272-3433}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Historiography ; *Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {Scientists warn about the difficulty of predicting ecological relationships as climate conditions for many places begin to move well outside their historical range of variability. In recent years, ecologists have identified "no-analog" communities, associations of species in the past that arose because of novel climate conditions not found at present. They have suggested that the planet is heading toward a similar period of disappearing climates and "ecological surprises." What role, if any, can history play as Americans enter that new world?}, }
@article {pmid25632900, year = {2015}, author = {Masud, MM and Junsheng, H and Akhtar, R and Al-Amin, AQ and Kari, FB}, title = {Estimating farmers' willingness to pay for climate change adaptation: the case of the Malaysian agricultural sector.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {187}, number = {2}, pages = {38}, pmid = {25632900}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Policy/*economics ; Humans ; Malaysia ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {This paper estimates Malaysian farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a planned adaptation programme for addressing climate issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. We used the contingent valuation method (CVM) for a monetary valuation of farmers' preferences for a planned adaptation programme by ascertaining the value attached to address climatic issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. Structured questionnaires were distributed among the sampled farmers. The study found that 74 % of respondents were willing to pay for a planned adaptation programme and that several socioeconomic and motivation factors have greater influence on their WTP. This paper clearly specifies the steps needed for all institutional bodies to better address issues in climate change. The outcomes of this paper will support policy makers to better design an efficient adaptation framework for adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25632503, year = {2014}, author = {}, title = {Health repercussions from climate change--and what we can do. Humans, as well as the natural environment, will sustain damage, but remedies are immedicately available, say researchers.}, journal = {DukeMedicine healthnews}, volume = {20}, number = {12}, pages = {5-6}, pmid = {25632503}, issn = {2153-8387}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25631995, year = {2015}, author = {Kingsolver, JG and Buckley, LB}, title = {Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {282}, number = {1802}, pages = {}, pmid = {25631995}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Butterflies/*anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Colorado ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Melanins ; Phenotype ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Wings, Animal/anatomy &amp; histology ; }, abstract = {How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats.}, }
@article {pmid25631557, year = {2015}, author = {Shi, Y and Cui, S and Ju, X and Cai, Z and Zhu, YG}, title = {Impacts of reactive nitrogen on climate change in China.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {8118}, pmid = {25631557}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Air Pollution/analysis ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon/analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Industry ; Internationality ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Reactive Nitrogen Species/*analysis ; Temperature ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {China is mobilizing the largest anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the world due to agricultural, industrial and urban development. However, the climate effects related to Nr in China remain largely unclear. Here we comprehensively estimate that the net climate effects of Nr are -100 ± 414 and 322 ± 163 Tg CO2e on a GTP20 and a GTP100 basis, respectively. Agriculture contributes to warming at 187 ± 108 and 186 ± 56 Tg CO2e on a 20-y and 100-y basis, respectively, dominated by long-lived nitrous oxide (N2O) from fertilized soils. On a 20-y basis, industry contributes to cooling at -287 ± 306 Tg CO2e, largely owing to emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) altering tropospheric ozone, methane and aerosol concentrations. However, these effects are short-lived. The effect of industry converts to warming at 136 ± 107 Tg CO2e on a 100-y basis, mainly as a result of the reduced carbon (C) sink from the NOx-induced ozone effect on plant damage. On balance, the warming effects of gaseous Nr are partly offset by the cooling effects of N-induced carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems. The large mitigation potentials through reductions in agricultural N2O and industrial NOx will accompany by a certain mitigation pressure from limited N-induced C sequestration in the future.}, }
@article {pmid25630123, year = {2015}, author = {Alkayal, E and Bogurcu, M and Ulutas, F and Demirer, GN}, title = {Adaptation to climate change in industry: improving resource efficiency through sustainable production applications.}, journal = {Water environment research : a research publication of the Water Environment Federation}, volume = {87}, number = {1}, pages = {14-25}, doi = {10.2175/106143014x14062131178952}, pmid = {25630123}, issn = {1061-4303}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Industry ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {The objective of this study was to investigate the climate change adaptation opportunities of six companies from different sectors through resource efficiency and sustainable production. A total of 77 sustainable production options were developed for the companies based on the audits conducted. After screening these opportunities with each company's staff, 19 options were selected and implemented. Significant water savings (849,668 m3/year) were achieved as a result of the applications that targeted reduction of water use. In addition to water savings, the energy consumption was reduced by 3,607 MWh, which decreased the CO2 emissions by 904.1 tons/year. Moreover, the consumption of 278.4 tons/year of chemicals (e.g., NaCl, CdO, NaCN) was avoided, thus the corresponding pollution load to the wastewater treatment plant was reduced. Besides the tangible improvements, other gains were achieved, such as improved product quality, improved health and safety conditions, reduced maintenance requirements, and ensured compliance with national and EU regulations. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first ever activity in Turkey devoted to climate change adaptation in the private sector. This study may serve as a building block in Turkey for the integration of climate change adaptation and mitigation approach in the industry, since water efficiency (adaptation) and carbon reduction (mitigation) are achieved simultaneously.}, }
@article {pmid25628878, year = {2015}, author = {Takao, S and Kumagai, NH and Yamano, H and Fujii, M and Yamanaka, Y}, title = {Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {213-223}, pmid = {25628878}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Seaweed beds play a key role in providing essential habitats and energy to coastal areas, with enhancements in productivity and biodiversity and benefits to human societies. However, the spatial extent of seaweed beds around Japan has decreased due to coastal reclamation, water quality changes, rising water temperatures, and heavy grazing by herbivores. Using monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1960 to 2099 and SST-based indices, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of warming seawater on the spatial extent of suitable versus unsuitable habitats for temperate seaweed Ecklonia cava, which is predominantly found in southern Japanese waters. SST data were generated using the most recent multiple climate projection models and emission scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, grazing by Siganus fuscescens, an herbivorous fish, was evaluated under the four RCP simulations. Our results suggest that continued warming may drive a poleward shift in the distribution of E. cava, with large differences depending on the climate scenario. For the lowest emission scenario (RCP2.6), most existing E. cava populations would not be impacted by seawater warming directly but would be adversely affected by intensified year-round grazing. For the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5), previously suitable habitats throughout coastal Japan would become untenable for E. cava by the 2090s, due to both high-temperature stress and intensified grazing. Our projections highlight the importance of not only mitigating regional warming due to climate change, but also protecting E. cava from herbivores to conserve suitable habitats on the Japanese coast.}, }
@article {pmid25628767, year = {2015}, author = {Guerrero-Bosagna, C and Jensen, P}, title = {Globalization, climate change, and transgenerational epigenetic inheritance: will our descendants be at risk?.}, journal = {Clinical epigenetics}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {8}, pmid = {25628767}, issn = {1868-7075}, abstract = {Transgenerational epigenetic inheritance has gained increased attention due to the possibility that exposure to environmental contaminants induce diseases that propagate across generations through epigenomic alterations in gametes. In laboratory animals, exposure to environmental toxicants such as fungicides, pesticides, or plastic compounds has been shown to produce abnormal reproductive or metabolic phenotypes that are transgenerationally transmitted. Human exposures to environmental toxicants have increased due to industrialization and globalization, as well as the incidence of diseases shown to be transgenerationally transmitted in animal models. This new knowledge poses an urgent call to study transgenerational consequences of current human exposures to environmental toxicants.}, }
@article {pmid25628045, year = {2015}, author = {Möller, M and Schneider, C}, title = {Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard).}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {8079}, pmid = {25628045}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Ice Cover ; Svalbard ; }, abstract = {Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21(st) century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to -4 m a(-1) w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario.}, }
@article {pmid25627590, year = {2014}, author = {Barros, DF and Albernaz, AL}, title = {Possible impacts of climate change on wetlands and its biota in the Brazilian Amazon.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {74}, number = {4}, pages = {810-820}, doi = {10.1590/1519-6984.04013}, pmid = {25627590}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {*Biota ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Wetlands cover approximately 6% of the Earth's surface. They are frequently found at the interface between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and are strongly dependent on the water cycle. For this reason, wetlands are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Mangroves and floodplain ecosystems are some of the most important environments for the Amazonian population, as a source of proteins and income, and are thus the types of wetlands chosen for this review. Some of the main consequences that can be predicted from climate change for wetlands are modifications in hydrological regimes, which can cause intense droughts or inundations. A possible reduction in rainfall can cause a decrease of the areas of mangroves and floodplains, with a consequent decline in their species numbers. Conversely, an increase in rainfall would probably cause the substitution of plant species, which would not be able to survive under new conditions for a long period. An elevation in water temperature on the floodplains would cause an increase in frequency and duration of hypoxic or anoxic episodes, which might further lead to a reduction in growth rates or the reproductive success of many species. In mangroves, an increase in water temperature would influence the sea level, causing losses of these environments through coastal erosion processes. Therefore, climate change will likely cause the loss of, or reduction in, Amazonian wetlands and will challenge the adaptability of species, composition and distribution, which will probably have consequences for the human population that depend on them.}, }
@article {pmid25626857, year = {2015}, author = {Moreau, S and Mostajir, B and Bélanger, S and Schloss, IR and Vancoppenolle, M and Demers, S and Ferreyra, GA}, title = {Climate change enhances primary production in the western Antarctic Peninsula.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {6}, pages = {2191-2205}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12878}, pmid = {25626857}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Chlorophyll/analysis ; Chlorophyll A ; *Climate Change ; *Ice Cover ; Oceans and Seas ; Ozone Depletion ; Photosynthesis/radiation effects ; Phytoplankton/*physiology/radiation effects ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Intense regional warming was observed in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the last 50 years. Here, we investigate the impact of climate change on primary production (PP) in this highly productive region. This study is based on temporal data series of ozone thickness (1972-2010), sea ice concentration (1978-2010), sea-surface temperature (1990-2010), incident irradiance (1988-2010) and satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentration (Chl-a, 1997-2010) for the coastal WAP. In addition, we apply a photosynthesis/photoinhibition spectral model to satellite-derived data (1997-2010) to compute PP and examine the separate impacts of environmental forcings. Since 1978, sea ice retreat has been occurring earlier in the season (in March in 1978 and in late October during the 2000s) while the ozone hole is present in early spring (i.e. August to November) since the early 1990s, increasing the intensity of ultraviolet-B radiation (UVBR, 280-320 nm). The WAP waters have also warmed over 1990-2010. The modelled PP rates are in the lower range of previously reported PP rates in the WAP. The annual open water PP in the study area increased from 1997 to 2010 (from 0.73 to 1.03 Tg C yr(-1)) concomitantly with the increase in the production season length. The coincidence between the earlier sea ice retreat and the presence of the ozone hole increased the exposure to incoming radiation (UVBR, UVAR and PAR) and, thus, increased photoinhibition during austral spring (September to November) in the study area (from 0.014 to 0.025 Tg C yr(-1)). This increase in photoinhibition was minor compared to the overall increase in PP, however. Climate change hence had an overall positive impact on PP in the WAP waters.}, }
@article {pmid25626670, year = {2014}, author = {Porto, JP and Batistão, DW and Ribas, RM}, title = {Authors' reply: Emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacterial strains, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and extended spectrum β-lactamases, and multi-drug resistance are problems similar to global warming.}, journal = {Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical}, volume = {47}, number = {6}, pages = {817-818}, doi = {10.1590/0037-8682-0184-2014}, pmid = {25626670}, issn = {1678-9849}, mesh = {Bacteremia/*mortality ; Cross Infection/*mortality ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus ; Staphylococcal Infections/*mortality ; }, }
@article {pmid25626669, year = {2014}, author = {Bhattacharya, PK}, title = {Emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacterial strains, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, extended spectrum beta lactamases, and multi-drug resistance is a problem similar to global warming.}, journal = {Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical}, volume = {47}, number = {6}, pages = {815-816}, doi = {10.1590/0037-8682-0139-2014}, pmid = {25626669}, issn = {1678-9849}, mesh = {Bacteremia/*mortality ; Cross Infection/*mortality ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus ; Staphylococcal Infections/*mortality ; }, }
@article {pmid25626569, year = {2015}, author = {Abrahão, R and García-Garizábal, I and Merchán, D and Causapé, J}, title = {Climate change and the water cycle in newly irrigated areas.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {187}, number = {2}, pages = {22}, pmid = {25626569}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Spain ; *Water Cycle ; Water Resources/analysis/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting agriculture doubly: evapotranspiration is increasing due to increments in temperature while the availability of water resources is decreasing. Furthermore, irrigated areas are expanding worldwide. In this study, the dynamics of climate change impacts on the water cycle of a newly irrigated watershed are studied through the calculation of soil water balances. The study area was a 752-ha watershed located on the left side of the Ebro river valley, in Northeast Spain. The soil water balance procedures were carried out throughout 1827 consecutive days (5 years) of hydrological and agronomical monitoring in the study area. Daily data from two agroclimatic stations were used as well. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on the water cycle considered the creation of two future climate scenarios for comparison: 2070 decade with climate change and 2070 decade without climate change. The main indicators studied were precipitation, irrigation, reference evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, drainage from the watershed, and irrigation losses. The aridity index was also applied. The results represent a baseline scenario in which adaptation measures may be included and tested to reduce the impacts of climate change in the studied area and other similar areas.}, }
@article {pmid25626424, year = {2016}, author = {Kjellstrom, T}, title = {Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {28}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {28S-37S}, doi = {10.1177/1010539514568711}, pmid = {25626424}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern ; *Climate Change ; Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Global Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology ; Humans ; Occupational Exposure/adverse effects ; Occupational Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Seasons ; Urban Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Work/*economics ; Workplace ; }, abstract = {One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries.}, }
@article {pmid25626071, year = {2015}, author = {Li, C and Zhang, C and Luo, G and Chen, X and Maisupova, B and Madaminov, AA and Han, Q and Djenbaev, BM}, title = {Carbon stock and its responses to climate change in Central Asia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {5}, pages = {1951-1967}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12846}, pmid = {25626071}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Asia, Central ; Carbon/*analysis ; Carbon Cycle/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Theoretical ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Central Asia has a land area of 5.6 × 10(6) km(2) and contains 80-90% of the world's temperate deserts. Yet it is one of the least characterized areas in the estimation of the global carbon (C) stock/balance. This study assessed the sizes and spatiotemporal patterns of C pools in Central Asia using both inventory (based on 353 biomass and 284 soil samples) and process-based modeling approaches. The results showed that the C stock in Central Asia was 31.34-34.16 Pg in the top 1-m soil with another 10.42-11.43 Pg stored in deep soil (1-3 m) of the temperate deserts. They amounted to 18-24% of the global C stock in deserts and dry shrublands. The C stock was comparable to that of the neighboring regions in Eurasia or major drylands around the world (e.g. Australia). However, 90% of Central Asia C pool was stored in soil, and the fraction was much higher than in other regions. Compared to hot deserts of the world, the temperate deserts in Central Asia had relatively high soil organic carbon density. The C stock in Central Asia is under threat from dramatic climate change. During a decadal drought between 1998 and 2008, which was possibly related to protracted La Niña episodes, the dryland lost approximately 0.46 Pg C from 1979 to 2011. The largest C losses were found in northern Kazakhstan, where annual precipitation declined at a rate of 90 mm decade(-1) . The regional C dynamics were mainly determined by changes in the vegetation C pool, and the SOC pool was stable due to the balance between reduced plant-derived C influx and inhibited respiration.}, }
@article {pmid25625973, year = {2015}, author = {Fjæstad, K}, title = {[Re: Climate change is a health issue].}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {135}, number = {2}, pages = {104}, doi = {10.4045/tidsskr.14.1587}, pmid = {25625973}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25625529, year = {2015}, author = {Wang, Q}, title = {Cheaper oil--challenge and opportunity for climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {49}, number = {4}, pages = {1997-1998}, doi = {10.1021/es505704u}, pmid = {25625529}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Automobiles ; *Climate Change ; *Financing, Government ; Fossil Fuels/*economics ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25624470, year = {2015}, author = {Bhattacharya, T and Byrne, R and Böhnel, H and Wogau, K and Kienel, U and Ingram, BL and Zimmerman, S}, title = {Cultural implications of late Holocene climate change in the Cuenca Oriental, Mexico.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {6}, pages = {1693-1698}, pmid = {25624470}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Bayes Theorem ; Carbon/analysis ; Climate Change/*history ; *Culture ; *Droughts ; *Environment ; Geologic Sediments/*chemistry ; History, Medieval ; Humans ; Isotopes/analysis ; Lakes/*chemistry ; Mexico ; Oxygen/analysis ; *Population Dynamics ; X-Ray Diffraction ; }, abstract = {There is currently no consensus on the importance of climate change in Mesoamerican prehistory. Some invoke drought as a causal factor in major cultural transitions, including the abandonment of many sites at 900 CE, while others conclude that cultural factors were more important. This lack of agreement reflects the fact that the history of climate change in many regions of Mesoamerica is poorly understood. We present paleolimnological evidence suggesting that climate change was important in the abandonment of Cantona between 900 CE and 1050 CE. At its peak, Cantona was one of the largest cities in pre-Columbian Mesoamerica, with a population of 90,000 inhabitants. The site is located in the Cuenca Oriental, a semiarid basin east of Mexico City. We developed a subcentennial reconstruction of regional climate from a nearby maar lake, Aljojuca. The modern climatology of the region suggests that sediments record changes in summer monsoonal precipitation. Elemental geochemistry (X-ray fluorescence) and δ(18)O from authigenic calcite indicate a centennial-scale arid interval between 500 CE and 1150 CE, overlaid on a long-term drying trend. Comparison of this record to Cantona's chronology suggests that both the city's peak population and its abandonment occurred during this arid period. The human response to climate change most likely resulted from the interplay of environmental and political factors. During earlier periods of Cantona's history, increasing aridity and political unrest may have actually increased the city's importance. However, by 1050 CE, this extended arid period, possibly combined with regional political change, contributed to the city's abandonment.}, }
@article {pmid25624300, year = {2015}, author = {Senior, T}, title = {Climate change and the SEP drive.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {65}, number = {631}, pages = {92}, doi = {10.3399/bjgp15X683773}, pmid = {25624300}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Health/*organization &amp; administration ; Environmental Illness/*epidemiology ; *General Practice ; Global Health ; Humans ; Morbidity/trends ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid25621330, year = {2015}, author = {Rowe, KC and Rowe, KM and Tingley, MW and Koo, MS and Patton, JL and Conroy, C and Perrine, JD and Beissinger, SR and Moritz, C}, title = {Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {282}, number = {1799}, pages = {20141857}, pmid = {25621330}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; California ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Mammals/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Resurveys of historical collecting localities have revealed range shifts, primarily leading edge expansions, which have been attributed to global warming. However, there have been few spatially replicated community-scale resurveys testing whether species' responses are spatially consistent. Here we repeated early twentieth century surveys of small mammals along elevational gradients in northern, central and southern regions of montane California. Of the 34 species we analysed, 25 shifted their ranges upslope or downslope in at least one region. However, two-thirds of ranges in the three regions remained stable at one or both elevational limits and none of the 22 species found in all three regions shifted both their upper and lower limits in the same direction in all regions. When shifts occurred, high-elevation species typically contracted their lower limits upslope, whereas low-elevation species had heterogeneous responses. For high-elevation species, site-specific change in temperature better predicted the direction of shifts than change in precipitation, whereas the direction of shifts by low-elevation species was unpredictable by temperature or precipitation. While our results support previous findings of primarily upslope shifts in montane species, they also highlight the degree to which the responses of individual species vary across geographically replicated landscapes.}, }
@article {pmid25618915, year = {2014}, author = {Ahlgren, I and Yamada, S and Wong, A}, title = {Rising oceans, climate change, food aid, and human rights in the Marshall Islands.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {69-80}, pmid = {25618915}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Assistance ; Food Supply ; Global Warming ; Health Status ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; Micronesia ; Nutritional Status ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts are expected to produce more frequent, longer and unpredictable drought periods with further saltwater intrusion in the Marshall Islands. As a result, a significant return to traditional food cropping is unlikely. This will lead to an increased dependence on food aid, especially in the outer atoll populations. An examination of the nutritional content of food aid suggests it is likely to lead to poor health outcomes. Dependence on food aid has gradually increased over the past 70 years in the Marshall Islands, starting with population relocation because of war and nuclear testing and most recently because of climate change. The authors argue that the health impacts of the supplemental imported diet, combined with migration to population centers, may result in an even greater prevalence of chronic diseases, and exert pressures that lead to more communicable disease, further exacerbating the syndemics in the Marshall Islands. The authors conclude that food aid donors and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) government have human rights obligations to ensure that the people in the Marshall Islands have access to adequate nutrition. Accordingly, donors and the government should re-examine the content of food and ensure it is of sufficient quality to meet the right to health obligations.}, }
@article {pmid25614661, year = {2015}, author = {Pilbeam, DJ}, title = {Breeding crops for improved mineral nutrition under climate change conditions.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {66}, number = {12}, pages = {3511-3521}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/eru539}, pmid = {25614661}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Breeding/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Environment ; Minerals/*metabolism ; *Nutritional Physiological Phenomena ; }, abstract = {Improvements in understanding how climate change may influence chemical and physical processes in soils, how this may affect nutrient availability, and how plants may respond to changed availability of nutrients will influence crop breeding programmes. The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, both individually and combined, on soil microbial activity, including mycorrhizas and N-fixing organisms, are evaluated, together with their implications for nutrient availability. Potential changes to plant growth, and the combined effects of soil and plant changes on nutrient uptake, are discussed. The organization of research on the efficient use of macro- and micronutrients by crops under climate change conditions is outlined, including analysis of QTLs for nutrient efficiency. Suggestions for how the information gained can be used in plant breeding programmes are given.}, }
@article {pmid25612827, year = {2016}, author = {Hellberg, RS and Chu, E}, title = {Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: A review.}, journal = {Critical reviews in microbiology}, volume = {42}, number = {4}, pages = {548-572}, doi = {10.3109/1040841X.2014.972335}, pmid = {25612827}, issn = {1549-7828}, mesh = {Animals ; Bacteria/*isolation &amp; purification/pathogenicity ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Microbiology ; *Food Safety ; Foodborne Diseases/*microbiology ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Zoonoses/*microbiology ; }, abstract = {According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Over the coming century, warming trends such as increased duration and frequency of heat waves and hot extremes are expected in some areas, as well as increased intensity of some storm systems. Climate-induced trends will impact the persistence and dispersal of foodborne pathogens in myriad ways, especially for environmentally ubiquitous and/or zoonotic microorganisms. Animal hosts of foodborne pathogens are also expected to be impacted by climate change through the introduction of increased physiological stress and, in some cases, altered geographic ranges and seasonality. This review article examines the effects of climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall, drought and wind, on the environmental dispersal and persistence of bacterial foodborne pathogens, namely, Bacillus cereus, Brucella, Campylobacter, Clostridium, Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio and Yersinia enterocolitica. These relationships are then used to predict how future climatic changes will impact the activity of these microorganisms in the outdoor environment and associated food safety issues. The development of predictive models that quantify these complex relationships will also be discussed, as well as the potential impacts of climate change on transmission of foodborne disease from animal hosts.}, }
@article {pmid25611594, year = {2015}, author = {Descombes, P and Wisz, MS and Leprieur, F and Parravicini, V and Heine, C and Olsen, SM and Swingedouw, D and Kulbicki, M and Mouillot, D and Pellissier, L}, title = {Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {7}, pages = {2479-2487}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12868}, pmid = {25611594}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25610991, year = {2015}, author = {Soto-Centeno, JA and Steadman, DW}, title = {Fossils reject climate change as the cause of extinction of Caribbean bats.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {7971}, pmid = {25610991}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Caribbean Region ; *Chiroptera ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Fossils ; }, abstract = {We combined novel radiocarbon dates of bat fossils with time-scaled ecological niche models (ENM) to study bat extinctions in the Caribbean. Radiocarbon-dated fossils show that late Quaternary losses of bat populations took place during the late Holocene (<4 ka) rather than late Pleistocene (>10 ka). All bat radiocarbon dates from Abaco (Bahamas) that represent extirpated populations are younger than 4 ka. We include data on six bat species, three of which are Caribbean endemics, and include nectarivores as well as insectivores. Climate-based ENMs from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present reflect overall stability in distributions, with suitable climatic habitat being present over time. In the absence of radiocarbon dates, bat extinctions had been presumed to take place during the last glacial-interglacial transition (ca. 10 ka). Now we see that extirpation of bats on these tropical islands is more complex than previously thought and primarily postdates the major climate changes that took place during the late Pleistocene-Holocene transition.}, }
@article {pmid25608567, year = {2015}, author = {Sesink Clee, PR and Abwe, EE and Ambahe, RD and Anthony, NM and Fotso, R and Locatelli, S and Maisels, F and Mitchell, MW and Morgan, BJ and Pokempner, AA and Gonder, MK}, title = {Chimpanzee population structure in Cameroon and Nigeria is associated with habitat variation that may be lost under climate change.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {2}, pmid = {25608567}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Animals ; Cameroon ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Nigeria ; Pan troglodytes/*classification/*genetics ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Nigeria-Cameroon chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes ellioti) is found in the Gulf of Guinea biodiversity hotspot located in western equatorial Africa. This subspecies is threatened by habitat fragmentation due to logging and agricultural development, hunting for the bushmeat trade, and possibly climate change. Although P. t. ellioti appears to be geographically separated from the neighboring central chimpanzee (P. t. troglodytes) by the Sanaga River, recent population genetics studies of chimpanzees from across this region suggest that additional factors may also be important in their separation. The main aims of this study were: 1) to model the distribution of suitable habitat for P. t. ellioti across Cameroon and Nigeria, and P. t. troglodytes in southern Cameroon, 2) to determine which environmental factors best predict their optimal habitats, and 3) to compare modeled niches and test for their levels of divergence from one another. A final aim of this study was to examine the ways that climate change might impact suitable chimpanzee habitat across the region under various scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: Ecological niche models (ENMs) were created using the software package Maxent for the three populations of chimpanzees that have been inferred to exist in Cameroon and eastern Nigeria: (i) P. t. troglodytes in southern Cameroon, (ii) P. t. ellioti in northwestern Cameroon, and (iii) P. t. ellioti in central Cameroon. ENMs for each population were compared using the niche comparison test in ENMtools, which revealed complete niche divergence with very little geographic overlap of suitable habitat between populations.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that a positive relationship may exist between environmental variation and the partitioning of genetic variation found in chimpanzees across this region. ENMs for each population were also projected under three different climate change scenarios for years 2020, 2050, and 2080. Suitable habitat of P. t. ellioti in northwest Cameroon / eastern Nigeria is expected to remain largely unchanged through 2080 in all considered scenarios. In contrast, P. t. ellioti in central Cameroon, which represents half of the population of this subspecies, is expected to experience drastic reductions in its ecotone habitat over the coming century.}, }
@article {pmid25606613, year = {2014}, author = {}, title = {Past climate change was caused by the ocean, not just the atmosphere.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {89}, number = {1-2}, pages = {2}, pmid = {25606613}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Oceans and Seas ; *Water Movements ; }, }
@article {pmid25605349, year = {2015}, author = {Dawson, IK and Russell, J and Powell, W and Steffenson, B and Thomas, WTB and Waugh, R}, title = {Barley: a translational model for adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {206}, number = {3}, pages = {913-931}, doi = {10.1111/nph.13266}, pmid = {25605349}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; Disease Resistance ; Food Supply ; Genome, Plant ; Hordeum/genetics/metabolism/*physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Plant Diseases/genetics ; }, abstract = {Barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare) is an excellent model for understanding agricultural responses to climate change. Its initial domestication over 10 millennia ago and subsequent wide migration provide striking evidence of adaptation to different environments, agro-ecologies and uses. A bottleneck in the selection of modern varieties has resulted in a reduction in total genetic diversity and a loss of specific alleles relevant to climate-smart agriculture. However, extensive and well-curated collections of landraces, wild barley accessions (H. vulgare ssp. spontaneum) and other Hordeum species exist and are important new allele sources. A wide range of genomic and analytical tools have entered the public domain for exploring and capturing this variation, and specialized populations, mutant stocks and transgenics facilitate the connection between genetic diversity and heritable phenotypes. These lay the biological, technological and informational foundations for developing climate-resilient crops tailored to specific environments that are supported by extensive environmental and geographical databases, new methods for climate modelling and trait/environment association analyses, and decentralized participatory improvement methods. Case studies of important climate-related traits and their constituent genes - including examples that are indicative of the complexities involved in designing appropriate responses - are presented, and key developments for the future highlighted.}, }
@article {pmid25603095, year = {2014}, author = {Strauch, AM and Mackenzie, RA and Bruland, GL and Tingley, R and Giardina, CP}, title = {Climate change and land use drivers of fecal bacteria in tropical hawaiian rivers.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {1475-1483}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2014.01.0025}, pmid = {25603095}, issn = {0047-2425}, abstract = {Potential shifts in rainfall driven by climate change are anticipated to affect watershed processes (e.g., soil moisture, runoff, stream flow), yet few model systems exist in the tropics to test hypotheses about how these processes may respond to these shifts. We used a sequence of nine watersheds on Hawaii Island spanning 3000 mm (7500-4500 mm) of mean annual rainfall (MAR) to investigate the effects of short-term (24-h) and long-term (MAR) rainfall on three fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) (enterococci, total coliforms, and). All sample sites were in native Ohia dominated forest above 600 m in elevation. Additional samples were collected just above sea level where the predominant land cover is pasture and agriculture, permitting the additional study of interactions between land use across the MAR gradient. We found that declines in MAR significantly amplified concentrations of all three FIB and that FIB yield increased more rapidly with 24-h rainfall in low-MAR watersheds than in high-MAR watersheds. Because storm frequency decreases with declining MAR, the rate of change in water potential affects microbial growth, whereas increased rainfall intensity dislodges more soil and bacteria as runoff compared with water-logged soils of high-MAR watersheds. As expected, declines in % forest cover and increased urbanization increased FIB. Taken together, shifts in rainfall may alter bacterial inputs to tropical streams, with land use change also affecting water quality in streams and near-shore environments.}, }
@article {pmid25603079, year = {2014}, author = {Garbrecht, JD and Zhang, XC and Steiner, JL}, title = {Climate change and observed climate trends in the fort cobb experimental watershed.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {1319-1327}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2013.07.0286}, pmid = {25603079}, issn = {0047-2425}, abstract = {Recurring droughts in the Southern Great Plains of the United States are stressing the landscape, increasing uncertainty and risk in agricultural production, and impeding optimal agronomic management of crop, pasture, and grazing systems. The distinct possibility that the severity of recent droughts may be related to a greenhouse-gas induced climate change introduces new challenges for water resources managers because the intensification of droughts could represent a permanent feature of the future climate. Climate records of the Fort Cobb watershed in central Oklahoma were analyzed to determine if recent decade-long trends in precipitation and air temperature were consistent with climate change projections for central Oklahoma. The historical precipitation record did not reveal any compelling evidence that the recent 20-yr-long decline in precipitation was related to climate change. Also, precipitation projections by global circulation models (GCMs) displayed a flat pattern through the end of the 21st century. Neither observed nor projected precipitation displayed a multidecadal monotonic rising or declining trend consistent with an ongoing warming climate. The recent trend in observed annual precipitation was probably a decade-scale variation not directly related to the warming climate. On the other hand, the observed monotonic warming trend of 0.34°C decade that started around 1978 is consistent with GCM projections of increasing temperature for central Oklahoma.}, }
@article {pmid25602807, year = {2014}, author = {Sainju, UM and Stevens, WB and Caesar-TonThat, T and Liebig, MA and Wang, J}, title = {Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity influenced by irrigation, tillage, crop rotation, and nitrogen fertilization.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {43}, number = {3}, pages = {777-788}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2013.10.0405}, pmid = {25602807}, issn = {0047-2425}, abstract = {Little information exists about how global warming potential (GWP) is affected by management practices in agroecosystems. We evaluated the effects of irrigation, tillage, crop rotation, and N fertilization on net GWP and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI or GWP per unit crop yield) calculated by soil respiration (GWP and GHGI) and organic C (SOC) (GWP and GHGI) methods after accounting for CO emissions from all sources (irrigation, farm operations, N fertilization, and greenhouse gas [GHG] fluxes) and sinks (crop residue and SOC) in a Lihen sandy loam from 2008 to 2011 in western North Dakota. Treatments were two irrigation practices (irrigated vs. nonirrigated) and five cropping systems (conventional-till malt barley [ L.] with N fertilizer [CTBN], conventional-till malt barley with no N fertilizer [CTBO], no-till malt barley-pea [ L.] with N fertilizer [NTB-P], no-till malt barley with N fertilizer, and no-till malt barley with no N fertilizer [NTBO]). While CO equivalents were greater with irrigation, tillage, and N fertilization than without, NO and CH fluxes were 2 to 218 kg CO eq. ha greater in nonirrigated NTBN and irrigated CTBN than in other treatments. Previous year's crop residue and C sequestration rate were 202 to 9316 kg CO eq. ha greater in irrigated NTB-P than in other treatments. Compared with other treatments, GWP and GWP were 160 to 9052 kg CO eq. ha lower in irrigated and nonirrigated NTB-P. Similarly, GHGI and GHGI were lower in nonirrigated NTB-P than in other treatments. Regardless of irrigation practices, NTB-P may lower net GHG emissions more than other treatments in the northern Great Plains.}, }
@article {pmid25602556, year = {2014}, author = {Zabaleta, A and Meaurio, M and Ruiz, E and Antigüedad, I}, title = {Simulation climate change impact on runoff and sediment yield in a small watershed in the basque country, northern Spain.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {43}, number = {1}, pages = {235-245}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2012.0209}, pmid = {25602556}, issn = {0047-2425}, abstract = {Climate change is likely to have an impact on runoff and fluvial sediments in watersheds. These factors are among those used to characterize water bodies in relation to the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Hence, it is important to investigate the extent to which climate change may hinder the achievement of the objectives of the WFD. We explored the potential impact of climate change on runoff and sediment yield for the Aixola watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model calibration (2007-2010) and validation (2005-2006) results were rated as satisfactory. Subsequently, simulations were run for four climate change model-scenario combinations based on two general circulation models (CGCM2 and ECHAM4) under two emissions scenarios (A2 and B2) from 2011 to 2100. All combinations predicted that runoff and sediment yield would decrease compared with baseline (1961-1990). Three combinations suggested that runoff and sediments would decrease by 0.13 to 0.45 m s and 0.11 to 0.43 t every year from 2011 to 2100. However, the CGCM2-B2 scenario resulted in an "extremely likely" increase in runoff and sediments of 0.94 m s and 0.57 t every year. These variations in annual sediment yield are closely related to changes in precipitation. The high degree of uncertainty in the results must be considered when assessing potential impacts and making decisions about adaptation measures. Nevertheless, this first attempt to estimate future sediment yields in our region could be a useful starting point to explore future hydrological impacts in the area.}, }
@article {pmid25602549, year = {2014}, author = {Piniewski, M and Laizé, CL and Acreman, MC and Okruszko, T and Schneider, C}, title = {Effect of climate change on environmental flow indicators in the narew basin, poland.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {43}, number = {1}, pages = {155-167}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2011.0386}, pmid = {25602549}, issn = {0047-2425}, abstract = {Environmental flows-the quantity of water required to maintain a river ecosystem in its desired state-are of particular importance in areas of high natural value. Water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Rivers in the Narew basin in northeastern Poland are known for their valuable river and wetland ecosystems, many of them in pristine or near-pristine condition. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the environmental flow regime of the Narew river system, caused by climate change, as simulated by hydrological models with different degrees of physical characterization and spatial aggregation. Two models were assessed: the river basin scale model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the continental model of water availability and use WaterGAP. Future climate change scenarios were provided by two general circulation models coupled with the A2 emission scenario: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2. To assess the impact of climate change on environmental flows, a method based conceptually on the "range of variability" approach was used. The results indicate that the environmental flow regime in the Narew basin is subject to climate change risk, whose magnitude and spatial variability varies with climate model and hydrological modeling scale. Most of the analyzed sites experienced moderate impacts for the Generic Environmental Flow Indicator (GEFI), the Floodplain Inundation Indicator, and the River Habitat Availability Indicator. The consistency between SWAT and WaterGAP for GEFI was medium: in 55 to 66% of analyzed sites, the models suggested the same level of impact. Hence, we suggest that state-of-the-art, high-resolution, global- or continental-scale models, such as WaterGAP, could be useful tools for water management decision-makers and wetland conservation practitioners, whereas models such as SWAT should serve as a complementary tool for more specific, smaller-scale, local assessments.}, }
@article {pmid25602544, year = {2014}, author = {Jeong, J and Kannan, N and Arnold, JG}, title = {Effects of urbanization and climate change on stream health in north-central Texas.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {43}, number = {1}, pages = {100-109}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2011.0345}, pmid = {25602544}, issn = {0047-2425}, abstract = {Estimation of stream health involves the analysis of changes in aquatic species, riparian vegetation, microinvertebrates, and channel degradation due to hydrologic changes occurring from anthropogenic activities. In this study, we quantified stream health changes arising from urbanization and climate change using a combination of the widely accepted Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and Dundee Hydrologic Regime Assessment Method (DHRAM) on a rapidly urbanized watershed in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area in Texas. Historical flow data were split into pre-alteration and post-alteration periods. The influence of climate change on stream health was analyzed by dividing the precipitation data into three groups of dry, average, and wet conditions based on recorded annual precipitation. Hydrologic indicators were evaluated for all three of the climate scenarios to estimate the stream health changes brought about by climate change. The effect of urbanization on stream health was analyzed for a specific subwatershed where urbanization occurred dramatically but no stream flow data were available using the widely used watershed-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results of this study identify negative impacts to stream health with increasing urbanization and indicate that dry weather has more impact on stream health than wet weather. The IHA-DHRAM approach and SWAT model prove to be useful tools to estimate stream health at the watershed scale.}, }
@article {pmid25602089, year = {2014}, author = {Gardner, JL and Amano, T and Mackey, BG and Sutherland, WJ and Clayton, M and Peters, A}, title = {Dynamic size responses to climate change: prevailing effects of rising temperature drive long-term body size increases in a semi-arid passerine.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {7}, pages = {2062-2075}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12507}, pmid = {25602089}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Passeriformes/*anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Rain ; *Temperature ; Time ; }, abstract = {Changes in animal body size have been widely reported as a correlate of contemporary climate change. Body size affects metabolism and fitness, so changing size has implications for resilience, yet the climatic factors that drive size variation remain poorly understood. We test the role of mean and extreme temperature, rainfall, and remotely sensed primary productivity (NDVI) as drivers of body size in a sedentary, semi-arid Australian passerine, Ptilotula (Lichenostomus)penicillatus, over 23 years. To distinguish effects due to differential growth from changes in population composition, we analysed first-year birds and adults separately and considered climatic variation at three temporal scales (current, previous, and preceding 5 years). The strongest effects related to temperature: in both age classes, larger size was associated with warmer mean temperatures in the previous year, contrary to Bergmann's Rule. Moreover, adults were larger in warmer breeding seasons, while first years was larger after heat waves; these effects are more likely to be mediated through size-dependent mortality, highlighting the role of body size in determining vulnerability to extinction. In addition to temperature, larger adult size was associated with lower primary productivity, which may reflect a trade-off between vegetative growth and nectar production, on which adults rely. Finally, lower rainfall was associated with decreasing size in first year and adults, most likely related to decreased food availability. Overall,body size increased over 23 years, strongly in first-year birds (2.7%) compared with adults (1%), with size outcomes a balance between competing drivers. As rainfall declined over time and productivity remained fairly stable, the temporal increase in body size appears largely driven by rising mean temperature and temperature extremes. Body size responses to environmental change are thus complex and dynamic, driven by effects on growth as well as mortality.}, }
@article {pmid25601877, year = {2014}, author = {Valdés, AE}, title = {Forced adaptation: plant proteins to fight climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {762}, pmid = {25601877}, issn = {1664-462X}, }
@article {pmid25594780, year = {2015}, author = {Wang, Y and Rao, Y and Wu, X and Zhao, H and Chen, J}, title = {A method for screening climate change-sensitive infectious diseases.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {767-783}, pmid = {25594780}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Child ; Child, Preschool ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Malaria/epidemiology ; Mass Screening ; Schistosomiasis/epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25591942, year = {2015}, author = {Williams, CR and Gill, BS and Mincham, G and Mohd Zaki, AH and Abdullah, N and Mahiyuddin, WR and Ahmad, R and Shahar, MK and Harley, D and Viennet, E and Azil, A and Kamaluddin, A}, title = {Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model.}, journal = {Epidemiology and infection}, volume = {143}, number = {13}, pages = {2856-2864}, pmid = {25591942}, issn = {1469-4409}, mesh = {*Aedes ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Entomology/*methods ; Humans ; Malaysia/epidemiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Software ; }, abstract = {We aimed to reparameterize and validate an existing dengue model, comprising an entomological component (CIMSiM) and a disease component (DENSiM) for application in Malaysia. With the model we aimed to measure the effect of importation rate on dengue incidence, and to determine the potential impact of moderate climate change (a 1 °C temperature increase) on dengue activity. Dengue models (comprising CIMSiM and DENSiM) were reparameterized for a simulated Malaysian village of 10 000 people, and validated against monthly dengue case data from the district of Petaling Jaya in the state of Selangor. Simulations were also performed for 2008-2012 for variable virus importation rates (ranging from 1 to 25 per week) and dengue incidence determined. Dengue incidence in the period 2010-2012 was modelled, twice, with observed daily weather and with a 1 °C increase, the latter to simulate moderate climate change. Strong concordance between simulated and observed monthly dengue cases was observed (up to r = 0·72). There was a linear relationship between importation and incidence. However, a doubling of dengue importation did not equate to a doubling of dengue activity. The largest individual dengue outbreak was observed with the lowest dengue importation rate. Moderate climate change resulted in an overall decrease in dengue activity over a 3-year period, linked to high human seroprevalence early on in the simulation. Our results suggest that moderate reductions in importation with control programmes may not reduce the frequency of large outbreaks. Moderate increases in temperature do not necessarily lead to greater dengue incidence.}, }
@article {pmid25588156, year = {2015}, author = {Austin, SE and Ford, JD and Berrang-Ford, L and Araos, M and Parker, S and Fleury, MD}, title = {Public health adaptation to climate change in Canadian jurisdictions.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {623-651}, pmid = {25588156}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {//Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canada ; }, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Government Regulation ; Health Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses numerous risks to the health of Canadians. Extreme weather events, poor air quality, and food insecurity in northern regions are likely to increase along with the increasing incidence and range of infectious diseases. In this study we identify and characterize Canadian federal, provincial, territorial and municipal adaptation to these health risks based on publically available information. Federal health adaptation initiatives emphasize capacity building and gathering information to address general health, infectious disease and heat-related risks. Provincial and territorial adaptation is varied. Quebec is a leader in climate change adaptation, having a notably higher number of adaptation initiatives reported, addressing almost all risks posed by climate change in the province, and having implemented various adaptation types. Meanwhile, all other Canadian provinces and territories are in the early stages of health adaptation. Based on publically available information, reported adaptation also varies greatly by municipality. The six sampled Canadian regional health authorities (or equivalent) are not reporting any adaptation initiatives. We also find little relationship between the number of initiatives reported in the six sampled municipalities and their provinces, suggesting that municipalities are adapting (or not adapting) autonomously.}, }
@article {pmid25585139, year = {2015}, author = {Gu, C and Crane, J and Hornberger, G and Carrico, A}, title = {The effects of household management practices on the global warming potential of urban lawns.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {151}, number = {}, pages = {233-242}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.01.008}, pmid = {25585139}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/chemistry/*metabolism ; Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Family Characteristics ; Fertilizers/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrous Oxide/chemistry/*metabolism ; Poaceae/*metabolism ; Seasons ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Tennessee ; Urban Population ; }, abstract = {Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are an important component of the greenhouse gas (GHG) budget for urban turfgrasses. A biogeochemical model DNDC successfully captured the magnitudes and patterns of N2O emissions observed at an urban turfgrass system at the Richland Creek Watershed in Nashville, TN. The model was then used to study the long-term (i.e. 75 years) impacts of lawn management practice (LMP) on soil organic carbon sequestration rate (dSOC), soil N2O emissions, and net Global Warming Potentials (net GWPs). The model simulated N2O emissions and net GWP from the three management intensity levels over 75 years ranged from 0.75 to 3.57 kg N ha(-1)yr(-1) and 697 to 2443 kg CO2-eq ha(-1)yr(-1), respectively, which suggested that turfgrasses act as a net carbon emitter. Reduction of fertilization is most effective to mitigate the global warming potentials of turfgrasses. Compared to the baseline scenario, halving fertilization rate and clipping recycle as an alternative to synthetic fertilizer can reduce net GWPs by 17% and 12%, respectively. In addition, reducing irrigation and mowing are also effective in lowering net GWPs. The minimum-maintenance LMP without irrigation and fertilization can reduce annual N2O emissions and net GWPs by approximately 53% and 70%, respectively, with the price of gradual depletion of soil organic carbon, when compared to the intensive-maintenance LMP. A lawn age-dependent best management practice is recommended: a high dose fertilizer input at the initial stage of lawn establishment to enhance SOC sequestration, followed by decreasing fertilization rate when the lawn ages to minimize N2O emissions. A minimum-maintained LMP with clipping recycling, and minimum irrigation and mowing, is recommended to mitigate global warming effects from urban turfgrass systems. Among all practices, clipping recycle may be a relatively malleable behavior and, therefore, a good target for interventions seeking to reduce the environmental impacts of lawn management through public education. Our results suggest that a long-term or a chronosequence study of turfgrasses with varying ages is warranted to capture the complete dynamics of contribution of turfgrasses to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid25581499, year = {2015}, author = {Ripszam, M and Paczkowska, J and Figueira, J and Veenaas, C and Haglund, P}, title = {Dissolved organic carbon quality and sorption of organic pollutants in the Baltic Sea in light of future climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {49}, number = {3}, pages = {1445-1452}, doi = {10.1021/es504437s}, pmid = {25581499}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Adsorption ; Carbon/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Oceans and Seas ; Organic Chemicals/*chemistry ; Salinity ; Temperature ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Regional climate change scenarios predict increased temperature and precipitation in the northern Baltic Sea, leading to a greater runoff of fresh water and terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) within the second part of the 21st century. As a result, the current north to south gradient in temperature and salinity is likely to be shifted further toward the south. To examine if such climate change effects would cause alterations in the environmental fate of organic pollutants, spatial variations of DOC quality and sorption behavior toward organic contaminants were examined using multiple analytical methods. The results showed declining contents of aromatic functional groups in DOC along a north to south gradient. Similarly, the sorption of a diverse set of organic contaminants to DOC also showed spatial differences. The sorption behavior of these contaminants was modeled using poly parameter linear energy relationships. The resulting molecular descriptors indicated clear differences in the sorption properties of DOC sampled in northern and southern parts of the Baltic Sea, which imply that more organic contaminants are sorbed to DOC in the northern part. The extent of this sorption process determines whether individual contaminants will partition to biota via direct uptake or through sorption to DOC, which serves as food source for bacteria-based food-webs.}, }
@article {pmid25581316, year = {2015}, author = {Challinor, AJ and Parkes, B and Ramirez-Villegas, J}, title = {Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {1679-1688}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12808}, pmid = {25581316}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Geography ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of observed global data and regional crop modelling demonstrate that areas of high vs. low cropping intensity can have systematically different yields, in both observations and simulations. Analysis of global crop data suggests that heterogeneity in cropping intensity is a likely source of scale dependency for a number of crops across the globe. Further crop modelling and a meta-analysis of projected tropical maize yields are used to assess the implications for climate change assessments. The results show that scale dependency is a potential source of systematic bias. We conclude that spatially comprehensive assessments of climate impacts based on yield alone, without accounting for cropping intensity, are prone to systematic overestimation of climate impacts. The findings therefore suggest a need for greater attention to crop suitability and land use change when assessing the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25580828, year = {2015}, author = {Tubiello, FN and Salvatore, M and Ferrara, AF and House, J and Federici, S and Rossi, S and Biancalani, R and Condor Golec, RD and Jacobs, H and Flammini, A and Prosperi, P and Cardenas-Galindo, P and Schmidhuber, J and Sanz Sanchez, MJ and Srivastava, N and Smith, P}, title = {The Contribution of Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use activities to Global Warming, 1990-2012.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {7}, pages = {2655-2660}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12865}, pmid = {25580828}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {We refine the information available through the IPCC AR5 with regard to recent trends in global GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU), including global emission updates to 2012. Using all three available AFOLU datasets employed for analysis in the IPCC AR5, rather than just one as done in the IPCC AR5 WGIII Summary for Policy Makers, our analyses point to a down-revision of global AFOLU shares of total anthropogenic emissions, while providing important additional information on subsectoral trends. Our findings confirm that the share of AFOLU emissions to the anthropogenic total declined over time. They indicate a decadal average of 28.7 ± 1.5% in the 1990s and 23.6 ± 2.1% in the 2000s and an annual value of 21.2 ± 1.5% in 2010. The IPCC AR5 had indicated a 24% share in 2010. In contrast to previous decades, when emissions from land use (land use, land use change and forestry, including deforestation) were significantly larger than those from agriculture (crop and livestock production), in 2010 agriculture was the larger component, contributing 11.2 ± 0.4% of total GHG emissions, compared to 10.0 ± 1.2% of the land use sector. Deforestation was responsible for only 8% of total anthropogenic emissions in 2010, compared to 12% in the 1990s. Since 2010, the last year assessed by the IPCC AR5, new FAO estimates indicate that land use emissions have remained stable, at about 4.8 Gt CO2 eq yr[-1] in 2012. Emissions minus removals have also remained stable, at 3.2 Gt CO2 eq yr[-1] in 2012. By contrast, agriculture emissions have continued to grow, at roughly 1% annually, and remained larger than the land use sector, reaching 5.4 Gt CO2 eq yr[-1] in 2012. These results are useful to further inform the current climate policy debate on land use, suggesting that more efforts and resources should be directed to further explore options for mitigation in agriculture, much in line with the large efforts devoted to REDD+ in the past decade.}, }
@article {pmid25580253, year = {2014}, author = {Munday, PL}, title = {Transgenerational acclimation of fishes to climate change and ocean acidification.}, journal = {F1000prime reports}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {99}, pmid = {25580253}, issn = {2051-7599}, abstract = {There is growing concern about the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine organisms and ecosystems, yet the potential for acclimation and adaptation to these threats is poorly understood. Whereas many short-term experiments report negative biological effects of ocean warming and acidification, new studies show that some marine species have the capacity to acclimate to warmer and more acidic environments across generations. Consequently, transgenerational plasticity may be a powerful mechanism by which populations of some species will be able to adjust to projected climate change. Here, I review recent advances in understanding transgenerational acclimation in fishes. Research over the past 2 to 3 years shows that transgenerational acclimation can partially or fully ameliorate negative effects of warming, acidification, and hypoxia in a range of different species. The molecular and cellular pathways underpinning transgenerational acclimation are currently unknown, but modern genetic methods provide the tools to explore these mechanisms. Despite the potential benefits of transgenerational acclimation, there could be limitations to the phenotypic traits that respond transgenerationally, and trade-offs between life stages, that need to be investigated. Future studies should also test the potential interactions between transgenerational plasticity and genetic evolution to determine how these two processes will shape adaptive responses to environmental change over coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid25577422, year = {2015}, author = {Mooney, AM}, title = {Climate change: what does it mean for people with multiple sclerosis?.}, journal = {Archives of physical medicine and rehabilitation}, volume = {96}, number = {3}, pages = {563}, doi = {10.1016/j.apmr.2014.10.015}, pmid = {25577422}, issn = {1532-821X}, mesh = {Body Temperature/*physiology ; Fatigue/*physiopathology ; Female ; Humans ; Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting/*physiopathology ; }, }
@article {pmid25577188, year = {2015}, author = {Sicard, P and Dalstein-Richier, L}, title = {Health and vitality assessment of two common pine species in the context of climate change in southern Europe.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {137}, number = {}, pages = {235-245}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2014.12.025}, pmid = {25577188}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/toxicity ; *Climate Change ; France ; Ozone/toxicity ; Pinus/drug effects/*physiology ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The South-eastern France can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Based on non-parametric statistical tests, the climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, global radiation) and forest-response indicators (crown defoliation, discoloration and visible foliar ozone injury) of two pine species (Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra) were analyzed. In the last 20 years, the trend analyses reveal a clear hotter and drier climate along the coastline and slightly rainier inland. In the current climate change context, a reduction in ground-level ozone (O3) was found at remote sites and the visible foliar O3 injury decreased while deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in South-eastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+0.46-1.08°C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+1.95-4.59°C). Climate change is projected to reduce the benefits of O3 precursor emissions controls leading to a higher O3 uptake. However, the drier and warmer climate should induce a soil drought leading to a lower O3 uptake. These two effects, acting together in an opposite way, could mitigate the harmful impacts of O3 on forests. The development of coordinated emission abatement strategies is useful to reduce both climate change and O3 pollution. Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management with substantial socio-economic and biological diversity impacts. However, the development of future sustainable and adaptive forest management strategies has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of forest species to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25576758, year = {2015}, author = {Peltier, DM and Ibáñez, I}, title = {Patterns and variability in seedling carbon assimilation: implications for tree recruitment under climate change.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {71-85}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpu103}, pmid = {25576758}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {Acer/metabolism ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carya/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Electron Transport ; Forests ; Light ; *Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves/metabolism ; Quercus/metabolism ; Ribulose-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/metabolism ; *Seasons ; Seedlings/*metabolism ; Soil ; Temperature ; Trees/*metabolism ; Water ; }, abstract = {Predicting future forests' structure and functioning is a critical goal for ecologists, thus information on seedling recruitment will be crucial in determining the composition and structure of future forest ecosystems. In particular, seedlings' photosynthetic response to a changing environment will be a key component determining whether particular species establish enough individuals to maintain populations, as growth is a major determinant of survival. We quantified photosynthetic responses of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.), pignut hickory (Carya glabra Mill.), northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) and eastern black oak (Quercus velutina Lam.) seedlings to environmental conditions including light habitat, temperature, soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) using extensive in situ gas exchange measurements spanning an entire growing season. We estimated the parameters in a hierarchical Bayesian version of the Farquhar model of photosynthesis, additionally informed by soil moisture and VPD, and found that maximum Rubisco carboxylation (V(cmax)) and electron transport (J(max)) rates showed significant seasonal variation, but not the peaked patterns observed in studies of adult trees. Vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture limited J(max) and V(cmax) for all four species. Predictions indicate large declines in summer carbon assimilation rates under a 3 °C increase in mean annual temperature projected by climate models, while spring and fall assimilation rates may increase. Our model predicts decreases in summer assimilation rates in gap habitats with at least 90% probability, and with 20-99.9% probability in understory habitats depending on species. Predictions also show 70% probability of increases in fall and 52% probability in spring in understory habitats. All species were impacted, but our findings suggest that oak species may be favored in northeastern North America under projected increases in temperature due to superior assimilation rates under these conditions, though as growing seasons become longer, the effects of climate change on seedling photosynthesis may be complex.}, }
@article {pmid25576696, year = {2015}, author = {Costanza, JK and Terando, AJ and McKerrow, AJ and Collazo, JA}, title = {Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {151}, number = {}, pages = {186-199}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.032}, pmid = {25576696}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Fires ; Models, Biological ; Pinus/*physiology ; Southeastern United States ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the face of these drivers. Our results show that while climatic warming had little effect on the wildfire regime, and thus on longleaf pine dynamics, urban growth led to an 8% reduction in annual wildfire area. The management scenarios we tested increase the ecosystem's total extent by up to 62% and result in expansion of open-canopy longleaf by as much as 216%, meeting one of the two conservation goals for the ecosystem. We find that both conservation goals for this ecosystem, which is climate-resilient but vulnerable to urbanization, are only attainable if a greater focus is placed on restoration of non-longleaf areas as opposed to maintaining existing longleaf stands. Our approach demonstrates the importance of accounting for multiple relevant anthropogenic threats in an ecosystem-specific context in order to facilitate more effective management actions.}, }
@article {pmid25576286, year = {2015}, author = {Moor, H and Hylander, K and Norberg, J}, title = {Predicting climate change effects on wetland ecosystem services using species distribution modeling and plant functional traits.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S113-26}, pmid = {25576286}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, the sustainable use of which requires knowledge of the underlying ecological mechanisms. Functional traits, particularly the community-weighted mean trait (CWMT), provide a strong link between species communities and ecosystem functioning. We here combine species distribution modeling and plant functional traits to estimate the direction of change of ecosystem processes under climate change. We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types. Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary. The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.}, }
@article {pmid25576283, year = {2015}, author = {Navarro-Cano, JA and Karlsson, B and Posledovich, D and Toftegaard, T and Wiklund, C and Ehrlén, J and Gotthard, K}, title = {Climate change, phenology, and butterfly host plant utilization.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S78-88}, pmid = {25576283}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Butterflies/*physiology ; Climate Change ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Knowledge of how species interactions are influenced by climate warming is paramount to understand current biodiversity changes. We review phenological changes of Swedish butterflies during the latest decades and explore potential climate effects on butterfly-host plant interactions using the Orange tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines and its host plants as a model system. This butterfly has advanced its appearance dates substantially, and its mean flight date shows a positive correlation with latitude. We show that there is a large latitudinal variation in host use and that butterfly populations select plant individuals based on their flowering phenology. We conclude that A. cardamines is a phenological specialist but a host species generalist. This implies that thermal plasticity for spring development influences host utilization of the butterfly through effects on the phenological matching with its host plants. However, the host utilization strategy of A. cardamines appears to render it resilient to relatively large variation in climate.}, }
@article {pmid25576282, year = {2015}, author = {Kullberg, C and Fransson, T and Hedlund, J and Jonzén, N and Langvall, O and Nilsson, J and Bolmgren, K}, title = {Change in spring arrival of migratory birds under an era of climate change, Swedish data from the last 140 years.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S69-77}, pmid = {25576282}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {Many migratory bird species have advanced their spring arrival during the latest decades, most probably due to climate change. However, studies on migratory phenology in the period before recent global warming are scarce. We have analyzed a historical dataset (1873-1917) of spring arrival to southern and central Sweden of 14 migratory bird species. In addition, we have used relative differences between historical and present-day observations (1984-2013) to evaluate the effect of latitude and migratory strategy on day of arrival over time. There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants. Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden. The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.}, }
@article {pmid25576279, year = {2015}, author = {Elmhagen, B and Kindberg, J and Hellström, P and Angerbjörn, A}, title = {A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S39-50}, pmid = {25576279}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Forests ; *Tundra ; }, abstract = {It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930-1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid25576278, year = {2015}, author = {Strandmark, A and Bring, A and Cousins, SA and Destouni, G and Kautsky, H and Kolb, G and de la Torre-Castro, M and Hambäck, PA}, title = {Climate change effects on the Baltic Sea borderland between land and sea.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S28-38}, pmid = {25576278}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Coastal habitats are situated on the border between land and sea, and ecosystem structure and functioning is influenced by both marine and terrestrial processes. Despite this, most scientific studies and monitoring are conducted either with a terrestrial or an aquatic focus. To address issues concerning climate change impacts in coastal areas, a cross-ecosystem approach is necessary. Since habitats along the Baltic coastlines vary in hydrology, natural geography, and ecology, climate change projections for Baltic shore ecosystems are bound to be highly speculative. Societal responses to climate change in the Baltic coastal ecosystems should have an ecosystem approach and match the biophysical realities of the Baltic Sea area. Knowledge about ecosystem processes and their responses to a changing climate should be integrated within the decision process, both locally and nationally, in order to increase the awareness of, and to prepare for climate change impacts in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea.}, }
@article {pmid25574975, year = {2015}, author = {Santos, RM and Sanches Fernandes, LF and Varandas, SG and Pereira, MG and Sousa, R and Teixeira, A and Lopes-Lima, M and Cortes, RM and Pacheco, FA}, title = {Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {511}, number = {}, pages = {477-488}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.12.090}, pmid = {25574975}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Bivalvia/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Endangered Species ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Portugal ; }, abstract = {In this study, we assess the impacts of future climate and land-use in the Beça River (northern Portugal) under different scenarios and how this will translate into the conservation status of the endangered pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera (Linnaeus, 1758). This species is currently present in several stretches of the Beça River that still hold adequate ecological conditions. However, the species is threatened by projected declines in precipitation for the 21st century, with implication on the river flows and water depths that might decrease below the species requisites. This situation could be especially critical during summer conditions since the ecological flows may not be assured and several river stretches may be converted into stagnant isolated pools. The habitat connectivity will also be affected with reverberating effects on the mobility of Salmo trutta, the host of M. margaritifera, with consequences in the reproduction and recruitment of pearl mussels. In addition, human-related threats mostly associated with the presence of dams and an predicted increases in wildfires in the future. While the presence of dams may decrease even further the connectivity and river flow, with wildfires the major threat will be related to the wash out of burned areas during storms, eventually causing the disappearance of the mussels, especially the juveniles. In view of future climate and land-use change scenarios, conservation strategies are proposed, including the negotiation of ecological flows with the dam promoters, the replanting of riparian vegetation along the water course and the reintroduction of native tree species throughout the catchment.}, }
@article {pmid25569289, year = {2015}, author = {Hawkes, N}, title = {Most known fossil fuel reserves must remain unused to meet climate change targets.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {350}, number = {}, pages = {h82}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.h82}, pmid = {25569289}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Fossil Fuels ; Global Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Policy Making ; Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid25567285, year = {2015}, author = {McGlade, C and Ekins, P}, title = {The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {517}, number = {7533}, pages = {187-190}, pmid = {25567285}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Coal/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data/supply &amp; distribution ; Databases, Factual ; Fossil Fuels/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data/*supply &amp; distribution ; *Geography ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Models, Theoretical ; Oil and Gas Fields ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Policy makers have generally agreed that the average global temperature rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions should not exceed 2 °C above the average global temperature of pre-industrial times. It has been estimated that to have at least a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2 °C throughout the twenty-first century, the cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and 2050 need to be limited to around 1,100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2). However, the greenhouse gas emissions contained in present estimates of global fossil fuel reserves are around three times higher than this, and so the unabated use of all current fossil fuel reserves is incompatible with a warming limit of 2 °C. Here we use a single integrated assessment model that contains estimates of the quantities, locations and nature of the world's oil, gas and coal reserves and resources, and which is shown to be consistent with a wide variety of modelling approaches with different assumptions, to explore the implications of this emissions limit for fossil fuel production in different regions. Our results suggest that, globally, a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80 per cent of current coal reserves should remain unused from 2010 to 2050 in order to meet the target of 2 °C. We show that development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil production are incommensurate with efforts to limit average global warming to 2 °C. Our results show that policy makers' instincts to exploit rapidly and completely their territorial fossil fuels are, in aggregate, inconsistent with their commitments to this temperature limit. Implementation of this policy commitment would also render unnecessary continued substantial expenditure on fossil fuel exploration, because any new discoveries could not lead to increased aggregate production.}, }
@article {pmid25567075, year = {2015}, author = {Gupta, H and Kohli, RK and Ahluwalia, AS}, title = {Mapping 'consistency' in India's climate change position: Dynamics and dilemmas of science diplomacy.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {592-599}, pmid = {25567075}, issn = {1654-7209}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; India ; }, abstract = {India's position on climate change negotiations is likely to have far reaching implications for the success of global climate cooperation. Since the beginning of negotiations, the principle of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) remained the centerpiece of India's stand. The stand started to evolve at the 15th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at Copenhagen in 2009, when India accepted voluntary commitments to reduce emission intensity. Though India still swears by CBDR, status of the principle in the negotiations has become doubtful after the Durban Climate Conference in 2011 committed all parties to take emission targets. This paper traces major transition points in India's negotiating position over the years and provides a descriptive context of its climate-related concerns. It analyzes the interview responses of 15 top scientists, experts, and negotiators to build upon core areas of climate change issues in India, its future role, and position in negotiations. Interviewees, in general, were in favor of protecting the carbon space for the poor who had very low emissions.}, }
@article {pmid25566832, year = {2015}, author = {van der Valk, AG and Volin, JC and Wetzel, PR}, title = {Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations due to climate change and its implications for the vegetation of the Florida Everglades.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {799-806}, pmid = {25566832}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Florida ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plants ; Rain ; Soil ; *Water Movements ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The number of dominant vegetation types (wet prairies, sawgrass flats, ridges and sloughs, sloughs, and tree islands) historically and currently found in the Everglades, FL, USA, as with other wetlands with standing water, appears to be primarily a function of the magnitude of interannual water-level fluctuations. Analyses of 40 years of water-depth data were used to estimate the magnitude of contemporary (baseline) water-level fluctuations in undisturbed ridge and slough landscapes. Baseline interannual water-level fluctuations above the soil surface were at least 1.5 m. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations in 2060 were examined for seven climate change scenarios. When rainfall is predicted to increase by 10 %, the wettest scenario, the interannual range of water-level fluctuation increases to 1.8 m above the soil surface in sloughs. When rainfall is predicted to decrease by 10 % and temperatures to increase by 1.5 °C, the driest scenario, the range of interannual range of water-level fluctuations is predicted to decrease to 1.2 m above the soil surface in sloughs. A change of 25-30 cm in interannual water-level fluctuations is needed to change the number of vegetation types in a wetland. This suggests that the two most extreme climate change scenarios could have a significant impact on the overall structure of wetland vegetation, i.e., the number of vegetation types or zones, found in the Everglades.}, }
@article {pmid25566136, year = {2014}, author = {Jacquet, J and Dietrich, M and Jost, JT}, title = {The ideological divide and climate change opinion: "top-down" and "bottom-up" approaches.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {1458}, pmid = {25566136}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {The United States wields disproportionate global influence in terms of carbon dioxide emissions and international climate policy. This makes it an especially important context in which to examine the interplay among social, psychological, and political factors in shaping attitudes and behaviors related to climate change. In this article, we review the emerging literature addressing the liberal-conservative divide in the U.S. with respect to thought, communication, and action concerning climate change. Because of its theoretical and practical significance, we focus on the motivational basis for skepticism and inaction on the part of some, including "top-down" institutional forces, such as corporate strategy, and "bottom-up" psychological factors, such as ego, group, and system justification. Although more research is needed to elucidate fully the social, cognitive, and motivational bases of environmental attitudes and behavior, a great deal has been learned in just a few years by focusing on specific ideological factors in addition to general psychological principles.}, }
@article {pmid25564469, year = {2015}, author = {Fernández-Pascual, E and Seal, CE and Pritchard, HW}, title = {Simulating the germination response to diurnally alternating temperatures under climate change scenarios: comparative studies on Carex diandra seeds.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {115}, number = {2}, pages = {201-209}, pmid = {25564469}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Carex Plant/*physiology ; Circadian Rhythm ; *Climate Change ; *Germination ; Hot Temperature ; Seed Dispersal ; Seeds/*physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Environmental temperature regulates plant regeneration via seed in several superimposed ways, and this complex regulation will be disrupted by climate change. The role of diurnally alternating temperatures (ΔT) in terminating dormancy will be a major factor in this disruption, as its effects on seed germination are immediate.<br><br>METHODS: The effect of &#x394;T on seed germination was modelled using two populations of the wetland sedge Carex diandra, one from a montane site and one from a subalpine site. A cardinal-temperature model was fitted to germination results obtained from a thermal gradient plate, and the model was used to simulate changes in germination under two possible future climate scenarios (RCP2&#xb7;6 and RCP8&#xb7;5, for representative concentration pathways) as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Scenario RCP2&#xb7;6 projected moderate increases in average temperatures and &#x394;T, whereas RCP8&#xb7;5 projected greater warming and higher &#x394;T. Increasing &#x394;T decreased the base temperature for seed germination and the thermal time required for germination. The effect of higher &#x394;T together with the higher temperatures increased germination under both climate scenarios.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Carex diandra germination is highly responsive to potential changes in &#x394;T, and thus this study highlights the role of &#x394;T in seed responses to climate change. Comprehensive cardinal-temperature models, encompassing the different effects of temperature on seed germination, are needed to understand how climate change will affect plant regeneration.}, }
@article {pmid25563349, year = {2015}, author = {Phung, D and Huang, C and Rutherford, S and Chu, C and Wang, X and Nguyen, M}, title = {Climate change, water quality, and water-related diseases in the Mekong Delta Basin: a systematic review.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {265-276}, doi = {10.1177/1010539514565448}, pmid = {25563349}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Water Quality ; Waterborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Mekong Delta Basin (MDB) is vulnerable to extreme climate and hydrological events. The objectives of this review are to understand of water related health effects exacerbated by climate change and the gaps of knowledge on the relationships between climate conditions, water quality, and water-related diseases in the MDB. The findings indicate that a few studies with qualitative emphases on the relationships between climate and water quality have been conducted in MDB, and they are insufficient to describe the pattern of climate-disease relationship. The diseases caused by chemical contaminants in relation to changes of climate conditions are neglected in MDB. We suggest further studies to examine the influence of short-term variation of climate conditions on water quality and water-related diseases for the purpose of public health and medical prevention, and due to the trans-boundary nature of MDB, developing partnership in data sharing and research collaboration among MDBs countries should be prioritized.}, }
@article {pmid25563297, year = {2015}, author = {Asiyanbi, AP}, title = {'I don't get this climate stuff!' Making sense of climate change among the corporate middle class in Lagos.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {1007-1024}, doi = {10.1177/0963662514565332}, pmid = {25563297}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Awareness ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Comprehension ; Nigeria ; *Public Opinion ; Science ; Social Class ; *Social Perception ; }, abstract = {Public engagement continues to be central to wider efforts to address climate change. This study contributes to public engagement debates by investigating engagement with climate change among an often overlooked group, the corporate middle class in Africa's second largest megacity, Lagos. Combining survey and interviews, I focus analysis on three aspects: awareness, knowledge and concern; role of scientific and social frames in shaping general attitude; and spatial attribution of causes and consequences. The study reveals a universal awareness and high concern about climate change among the respondents, although understanding and perceptions of climate change are significantly socially framed. Social situatedness, more than scientific facts, is the most important definer of overall engagement with climate change. This study thus underscores a nuanced constructionist stance, showing how corporate professionals' 'ways of knowing' climate change is underpinned by a certain co-production between scientific and socio-experiential frames. I highlight implications for research and public engagement with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25558917, year = {2015}, author = {McCreesh, N and Nikulin, G and Booth, M}, title = {Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {4}, pmid = {25558917}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; Animals ; Biomphalaria/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Endemic Diseases ; Life Cycle Stages/physiology ; Models, Biological ; Risk Factors ; Schistosoma mansoni/*physiology ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Survival and fitness attributes of free-living and sporocyst schistosome life-stages and their intermediate host snails are sensitive to water temperature. Climate change may alter the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis by affecting the suitability of freshwater bodies for hosting parasite and snail populations.<br><br>METHODS: We have developed an agent-based model of the temperature-sensitive stages of the Schistosoma mansoni and intermediate host snail lifecycles. The model was run using low, moderate and high warming climate projections over eastern Africa. For each climate projection, eight model scenarios were used to determine the sensitivity of predictions to different relationships between air and water temperature, and different snail mortality rates. Maps were produced showing predicted changes in risk as a result of increasing temperatures over the next 20 and 50 years.<br><br>RESULTS: Baseline model output compared to prevalence data indicates suitable temperatures are necessary but not sufficient for both S. mansoni transmission and high infection prevalences. All else being equal, infection risk may increase by up to 20% over most of eastern Africa over the next 20 and 50 years. Increases may be higher in Rwanda, Burundi, south-west Kenya and eastern Zambia, and S. mansoni may become newly endemic in some areas. Results for 20-year projections are robust to changes in simulated intermediate host snail habitat conditions. There is greater uncertainty about the effects of different habitats on changes in risk in 50 years' time.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Temperatures are likely to become suitable for increased S. mansoni transmission over much of eastern Africa. This may reduce the impact of control and elimination programmes. S. mansoni may also spread to new areas outside existing control programmes. We call for increased surveillance in areas defined as potentially suitable for emergent transmission.}, }
@article {pmid25556986, year = {2015}, author = {Pinkney, AE and Driscoll, CT and Evers, DC and Hooper, MJ and Horan, J and Jones, JW and Lazarus, RS and Marshall, HG and Milliken, A and Rattner, BA and Schmerfeld, J and Sparling, DW}, title = {Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {355-369}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.1612}, pmid = {25556986}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/classification/growth &amp; development ; Atlantic Ocean ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Eutrophication ; Fresh Water/chemistry ; Mercury/analysis ; Water Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public-private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena-freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and more frequent droughts. GCC may affect freshwater mussel populations via altered stream temperatures and increased sediment loading during heavy storms. Freshwater mussels are sensitive to un-ionized ammonia that more toxic at higher temperatures. We recommend studying the interactive effects of GCC on generation and bioavailability of methylmercury and how GCC-driven shifts in bird species distributions will affect avian exposure to methylmercury. Research is needed on how decreases in acid deposition concurrent with GCC will alter the structure and function of sensitive watersheds and surface waters. Studies are needed to determine how GCC will affect HABs and avian disease, and how more severe and extensive hypoxia will affect fish and shellfish populations. Regarding amphibians, we suggest research on 1) thermal tolerance and moisture requirements of species of concern, 2) effects of multiple stressors (temperature, desiccation, contaminants, nutrients), and 3) approaches to mitigate impacts of increased temperature and seasonal drought. We recommend studies to assess which mussel species and populations are vulnerable and which are resilient to rising stream temperatures, hydrological shifts, and ionic pollutants, all of which are influenced by GCC.}, }
@article {pmid25549995, year = {2015}, author = {Nungesser, M and Saunders, C and Coronado-Molina, C and Obeysekera, J and Johnson, J and McVoy, C and Benscoter, B}, title = {Potential effects of climate change on Florida's Everglades.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {824-835}, pmid = {25549995}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Florida ; Hydrology ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Soil/chemistry ; Water ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Restoration efforts in Florida's Everglades focus on preserving and restoring this unique wetland's natural landscape. Because most of the Everglades is a freshwater peatland, it requires surplus rainfall to remain a peatland. Restoration plans generally assume a stable climate, yet projections of altered climate over a 50-year time horizon suggest that this assumption may be inappropriate. Using a legacy regional hydrological model, we simulated combinations of a temperature rise of 1.5 °C, a ± 10% change in rainfall, and a 0.46 m sea level rise relative to base conditions. The scenario of increased evapotranspiration and increased rainfall produced a slight increase in available water. In contrast, the more likely scenario of increased evapotranspiration and decreased rainfall lowered median water depths by 5-114 cm and shortened inundation duration periods by 5-45%. Sea level rise increased stages and inundation duration in southern Everglades National Park. These ecologically significant decreases in water depths and inundation duration periods would greatly alter current ecosystems through severe droughts, peat loss and carbon emissions, wildfires, loss of the unique ridge and slough patterns, large shifts in plant and animal communities, and increased exotic species invasions. These results suggest using adaptive restoration planning, a method that explicitly incorporates large climatic and environmental uncertainties into long-term ecosystem restoration plans, structural design, and management. Anticipated water constraints necessitate alternative approaches to restoration, including maintaining critical landscapes and facilitating transitions in others. Accommodating these uncertainties may improve the likelihood of restoration success.}, }
@article {pmid25549415, year = {2014}, author = {}, title = {Tornado strength and frequency linked to climate change.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {97}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {291}, pmid = {25549415}, issn = {0036-8504}, }
@article {pmid25548195, year = {2015}, author = {Elmendorf, SC and Henry, GH and Hollister, RD and Fosaa, AM and Gould, WA and Hermanutz, L and Hofgaard, A and Jónsdóttir, IS and Jorgenson, JC and Lévesque, E and Magnusson, B and Molau, U and Myers-Smith, IH and Oberbauer, SF and Rixen, C and Tweedie, CE and Walker, MD}, title = {Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {2}, pages = {448-452}, pmid = {25548195}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid25546280, year = {2014}, author = {Davies, GI and McIver, L and Kim, Y and Hashizume, M and Iddings, S and Chan, V}, title = {Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {191-213}, pmid = {25546280}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Cambodia/epidemiology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Cyclonic Storms ; Diarrhea/*epidemiology ; Drinking Water/adverse effects ; Female ; *Floods ; Humans ; Infant ; Male ; Toilet Facilities/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.}, }
@article {pmid25540646, year = {2014}, author = {Hofmann, M and Lux, R and Schultz, HR}, title = {Constructing a framework for risk analyses of climate change effects on the water budget of differently sloped vineyards with a numeric simulation using the Monte Carlo method coupled to a water balance model.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {645}, pmid = {25540646}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Grapes for wine production are a highly climate sensitive crop and vineyard water budget is a decisive factor in quality formation. In order to conduct risk assessments for climate change effects in viticulture models are needed which can be applied to complete growing regions. We first modified an existing simplified geometric vineyard model of radiation interception and resulting water use to incorporate numerical Monte Carlo simulations and the physical aspects of radiation interactions between canopy and vineyard slope and azimuth. We then used four regional climate models to assess for possible effects on the water budget of selected vineyard sites up 2100. The model was developed to describe the partitioning of short-wave radiation between grapevine canopy and soil surface, respectively, green cover, necessary to calculate vineyard evapotranspiration. Soil water storage was allocated to two sub reservoirs. The model was adopted for steep slope vineyards based on coordinate transformation and validated against measurements of grapevine sap flow and soil water content determined down to 1.6 m depth at three different sites over 2 years. The results showed good agreement of modeled and observed soil water dynamics of vineyards with large variations in site specific soil water holding capacity (SWC) and viticultural management. Simulated sap flow was in overall good agreement with measured sap flow but site-specific responses of sap flow to potential evapotranspiration were observed. The analyses of climate change impacts on vineyard water budget demonstrated the importance of site-specific assessment due to natural variations in SWC. The improved model was capable of describing seasonal and site-specific dynamics in soil water content and could be used in an amended version to estimate changes in the water budget of entire grape growing areas due to evolving climatic changes.}, }
@article {pmid25540277, year = {2015}, author = {Xu, L and Schmid, BV and Liu, J and Si, X and Stenseth, NC and Zhang, Z}, title = {The trophic responses of two different rodent-vector-plague systems to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {282}, number = {1800}, pages = {20141846}, pmid = {25540277}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks/veterinary ; Disease Reservoirs ; Ecosystem ; Gerbillinae/*microbiology/parasitology ; Insect Vectors ; Models, Biological ; Plague/epidemiology/*microbiology ; Population Density ; Prevalence ; Rodent Diseases/epidemiology/microbiology ; Sciuridae/*microbiology/parasitology ; Siphonaptera/microbiology ; *Yersinia pestis ; }, abstract = {Plague, the causative agent of three devastating pandemics in history, is currently a re-emerging disease, probably due to climate change and other anthropogenic changes. Without understanding the response of plague systems to anthropogenic or climate changes in their trophic web, it is unfeasible to effectively predict years with high risks of plague outbreak, hampering our ability for effective prevention and control of the disease. Here, by using surveillance data, we apply structural equation modelling to reveal the drivers of plague prevalence in two very different rodent systems: those of the solitary Daurian ground squirrel and the social Mongolian gerbil. We show that plague prevalence in the Daurian ground squirrel is not detectably related to its trophic web, and that therefore surveillance efforts should focus on detecting plague directly in this ecosystem. On the other hand, plague in the Mongolian gerbil is strongly embedded in a complex, yet understandable trophic web of climate, vegetation, and rodent and flea densities, making the ecosystem suitable for more sophisticated low-cost surveillance practices, such as remote sensing. As for the trophic webs of the two rodent species, we find that increased vegetation is positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation for both ecosystems. We furthermore find a positive association between vegetation and ground squirrel density, yet a negative association between vegetation and gerbil density. Our study thus shows how past surveillance records can be used to design and improve existing plague prevention and control measures, by tailoring them to individual plague foci. Such measures are indeed highly needed under present conditions with prevailing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25535973, year = {2014}, author = {Rivetti, I and Fraschetti, S and Lionello, P and Zambianchi, E and Boero, F}, title = {Global warming and mass mortalities of benthic invertebrates in the Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {e115655}, pmid = {25535973}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Global Warming ; Invertebrates/*growth &amp; development ; Islands ; Mediterranean Sea ; Seasons ; Survival Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Satellite data show a steady increase, in the last decades, of the surface temperature (upper few millimetres of the water surface) of the Mediterranean Sea. Reports of mass mortalities of benthic marine invertebrates increased in the same period. Some local studies interpreted the two phenomena in a cause-effect fashion. However, a basin-wide picture of temperature changes combined with a systematic assessment on invertebrate mass mortalities was still lacking. Both the thermal structure of the water column in the Mediterranean Sea over the period 1945-2011 and all documented invertebrate mass mortality events in the basin are analysed to ascertain if: 1- documented mass mortalities occurred under conditions of positive temperature trends at basin scale, and 2- atypical thermal conditions were registered at the smaller spatial and temporal scale of mass mortality events. The thermal structure of the shallow water column over the last 67 years was reconstructed using data from three public sources: MEDAR-MEDATLAS, World Ocean Database, MFS-VOS programme. A review of the mass mortality events of benthic invertebrates at Mediterranean scale was also carried out. The analysis of in situ temperature profiles shows that the Mediterranean Sea changed in a non-homogeneous fashion. The frequency of mass mortalities is increasing. The areas subjected to these events correspond to positive thermal anomalies. Statistically significant temperature trends in the upper layers of the Mediterranean Sea show an increase of up to 0.07°C/yr for a large fraction of the basin. Mass mortalities are consistent with both the temperature increase at basin scale and the thermal changes at local scale, up to 5.2°C. Our research supports the existence of a causal link between positive thermal anomalies and observed invertebrate mass mortalities in the Mediterranean Sea, invoking focused mitigation initiatives in sensitive areas.}, }
@article {pmid25535822, year = {2015}, author = {Sarfaty, M and Bloodhart, B and Ewart, G and Thurston, GD and Balmes, JR and Guidotti, TL and Maibach, EW}, title = {American Thoracic Society member survey on climate change and health.}, journal = {Annals of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {274-278}, pmid = {25535822}, issn = {2325-6621}, support = {P30 ES000260/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; ES00260/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; Biomedical Research ; Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; Critical Care ; Disease Progression ; Environmental Medicine ; Female ; Humans ; Internal Medicine ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Pediatrics ; *Physician's Role ; *Public Health ; *Pulmonary Medicine ; Sleep Medicine Specialty ; *Societies, Medical ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {The American Thoracic Society (ATS), in collaboration with George Mason University, surveyed a random sample of ATS members to assess their perceptions of, clinical experiences with, and preferred policy responses to climate change. An e-mail containing an invitation from the ATS President and a link to an online survey was sent to 5,500 randomly selected U.S. members; up to four reminder e-mails were sent to nonrespondents. Responses were received from members in 49 states and the District of Columbia (n = 915); the response rate was 17%. Geographic distribution of respondents mirrored that of the sample. Survey estimates' confidence intervals were ±3.5% or smaller. Results indicate that a large majority of ATS members have concluded that climate change is happening (89%), that it is driven by human activity (68%), and that it is relevant to patient care ("a great deal"/"a moderate amount") (65%). A majority of respondents indicated they were already observing health impacts of climate change among their patients, most commonly as increases in chronic disease severity from air pollution (77%), allergic symptoms from exposure to plants or mold (58%), and severe weather injuries (57%). A larger majority anticipated seeing these climate-related health impacts in the next 2 decades. Respondents indicated that physicians and physician organizations should play an active role in educating patients, the public, and policy makers on the human health effects of climate change. Overall, ATS members are observing that human health is already adversely affected by climate change and support responses to address this situation.}, }
@article {pmid25535553, year = {2014}, author = {Ouyang, F and Hui, C and Ge, S and Men, XY and Zhao, ZH and Shi, PJ and Zhang, YS and Li, BL}, title = {Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {17}, pages = {3362-3374}, pmid = {25535553}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities.}, }
@article {pmid25534244, year = {2015}, author = {SenGupta, AK and German, M}, title = {Environmental recourse, global warming and a conspicuous anomaly.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {49}, number = {1}, pages = {12-13}, doi = {10.1021/es5058117}, pmid = {25534244}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; Construction Industry ; *Environment ; *Family Characteristics ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Housing ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid25530812, year = {2014}, author = {Hodges, M and Belle, JH and Carlton, EJ and Liang, S and Li, H and Luo, W and Freeman, MC and Liu, Y and Gao, Y and Hess, JJ and Remais, JV}, title = {Delays reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {1109-1115}, pmid = {25530812}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {K01 AI091864/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R21 ES020225/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; U01 EH000405/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Despite China's rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. Because certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China's rapid progress toward reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8-85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls due to non-climate reasons.}, }
@article {pmid25528270, year = {2015}, author = {Qu, J and Silva, EC}, title = {Strategic effects of future environmental policy commitments: climate change, solar radiation management and correlated air pollutants.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {151}, number = {}, pages = {22-32}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.11.033}, pmid = {25528270}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*chemistry ; Carbon/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environmental Policy ; Forecasting ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Models, Theoretical ; Policy Making ; Solar Energy ; Sulfur Dioxide/chemistry ; }, abstract = {We study the effects of environmental policy commitments in a futuristic world in which solar radiation management (SRM) can be utilized to reduce climate change damages. Carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions (correlated pollutants) can be reduced through tradable permits. We show that if nations simultaneously commit to carbon permit policies, national SRM levels rise with carbon quotas. Alternatively, if they simultaneously commit to SRM policies, the global temperature falls with each unit increase in the global SRM level. A nation always wishes to be a leader in policymaking, but prefers carbon to SRM policymaking. The globe prefers SRM policy commitments.}, }
@article {pmid25525147, year = {2014}, author = {Vidal, J}, title = {Countries agree to spell out plans on climate change after fraught talks in Peru.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {349}, number = {}, pages = {g7736}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g7736}, pmid = {25525147}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Consensus ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Peru ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid25522050, year = {2014}, author = {Paterson, J and Berry, P and Ebi, K and Varangu, L}, title = {Health care facilities resilient to climate change impacts.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {13097-13116}, pmid = {25522050}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning ; Health Facility Planning/*methods ; Manitoba ; Nova Scotia ; Ontario ; }, abstract = {Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator's guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25517092, year = {2015}, author = {Martin, EE}, title = {Earth science: Ocean circulation and rapid climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {517}, number = {7532}, pages = {30-31}, pmid = {25517092}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Ice Cover ; *Water Movements ; }, }
@article {pmid25514146, year = {2014}, author = {Brown, H and Spickett, J and Katscherian, D}, title = {A health impact assessment framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation planning for climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {12896-12914}, pmid = {25514146}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate ; Health Impact Assessment/*methods ; Humans ; Pacific Islands ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.}, }
@article {pmid25514009, year = {2014}, author = {Baker, AC}, title = {Climate change: many ways to beat the heat for reef corals.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {24}, number = {24}, pages = {R1166-8}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2014.11.014}, pmid = {25514009}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Gene Frequency ; *Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; }, abstract = {Reef-building corals are vulnerable to heat stress and are facing widespread losses due to climate change. A new study shows that coral heat tolerance can result from selection on a suite of genes to maintain genetic flexibility.}, }
@article {pmid25512843, year = {2014}, author = {Ruiz-Aravena, M and Gonzalez-Mendez, A and Estay, SA and Gaitán-Espitia, JD and Barria-Oyarzo, I and Bartheld, JL and Bacigalupe, LD}, title = {Impact of global warming at the range margins: phenotypic plasticity and behavioral thermoregulation will buffer an endemic amphibian.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {23}, pages = {4467-4475}, pmid = {25512843}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {When dispersal is not an option to evade warming temperatures, compensation through behavior, plasticity, or evolutionary adaptation is essential to prevent extinction. In this work, we evaluated whether there is physiological plasticity in the thermal performance curve (TPC) of maximum jumping speed in individuals acclimated to current and projected temperatures and whether there is an opportunity for behavioral thermoregulation in the desert landscape where inhabits the northernmost population of the endemic frog Pleurodema thaul. Our results indicate that individuals acclimated to 20°C and 25°C increased the breath of their TPCs by shifting their upper limits with respect to when they were acclimated at 10°C. In addition, even when dispersal is not possible for this population, the landscape is heterogeneous enough to offer opportunities for behavioral thermoregulation. In particular, under current climatic conditions, behavioral thermoregulation is not compulsory as available operative temperatures are encompassed within the population TPC limits. However, for severe projected temperatures under climate change, behavioral thermoregulation will be required in the sunny patches. In overall, our results suggest that this population of Pleurodema thaul will be able to endure the worst projected scenario of climate warming as it has not only the physiological capacities but also the environmental opportunities to regulate its body temperature behaviorally.}, }
@article {pmid25511887, year = {2014}, author = {Rocklöv, J and Bao Giang, K and Van Minh, H and Ebi, K and Nilsson, M and Sahlen, KG and Weinehall, L}, title = {Local research evidence for public health interventions against climate change in Vietnam.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {26552}, pmid = {25511887}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {*Biomedical Research ; *Climate Change ; *Evidence-Based Practice ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; *Public Health Practice ; Vietnam ; }, }
@article {pmid25511880, year = {2014}, author = {Toan, do TT and Kien, VD and Bao Giang, K and Van Minh, H and Wright, P}, title = {Perceptions of climate change and its impact on human health: an integrated quantitative and qualitative approach.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {23025}, pmid = {25511880}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Focus Groups ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Status ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Poverty Areas ; Qualitative Research ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Vietnam ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization emphasized that climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, especially in lower income populations and tropical/subtropical countries. However, people in Asia and Africa were the least likely to perceive global warming as a threat. In Vietnam, little research has been conducted concerning the perceptions of effects of climate change on human health.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore the perceptions on climate change and its impact on human health among people in Hanoi.<br><br>DESIGN: We applied a combined quantitative and qualitative approach to study perceptions on climate change among people in Hanoi. A total of 1,444 people were recruited, including 754 people living in non-slum areas and 690 people living in slum areas of Hanoi. A structured questionnaire was used to collect quantitative data on their perceptions. In a parallel qualitative study, two focus group discussions and 12 in-depth interviews (IDs) were carried out involving 24 people from both slum and non-slum areas.<br><br>RESULTS: The majority of the respondents in the study had heard about climate change and its impact on human health (79.3 and 70.1% in non-slum and slum areas, respectively). About one third of the respondents reported that members of their family had experienced illness in the recent summer and winter compared to the same seasons 5 years ago. The most common symptoms reported during hot weather were headaches, fatigue, and dizziness; hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases were also reported. During cold weather, people reported experiencing cough, fever, and influenza, as well as pneumonia and emerging infectious diseases such as dengue and Japanese encephalitis.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The observed high level of awareness on the links between climate change and human health may help to increase the success of the National Prevention Program on Climate Change. Moreover, understanding the concerns of the people may help policy makers to develop and implement effective and sustainable adaptation measures for Hanoi City as well as for Vietnam as a whole.}, }
@article {pmid25509101, year = {2014}, author = {Zhao, XY}, title = {[Review on farmer's climate change perception and adaptation].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {8}, pages = {2440-2448}, pmid = {25509101}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Perception ; }, abstract = {As the most serious challenge that the humankind is facing, climate change has been strengthened vulnerability in many countries and regions, and how to scientifically adapt to climate change has become the global issue of common concern to the international community today. The impact of climate change on farming people depending on the nature resource is especially remarkable, and understanding farmers' adaptation mechanism and process is very important to effectively make the adaptation policy. As the basis of understanding the human response action, public perception has provided a new perspective to verify the farmers' adaptation mechanism and process about climate change. Based on the recent theoretical and empirical developments of farmers' perception and adaptation, the impact of climate change on the farmers' livelihood was analyzed, and the main adaptation obstacles which the farmers faced in response to climate change were summarized systematically. Then, we analyzed the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation, illuminated the key cognitive elements in the process of the farmers' climate change adaptation and introduced the framework to analyze the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation. At last, this review put forward the key questions which should be considered in study on the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid25505542, year = {2014}, author = {Lind, L and Nilsson, C and Weber, C}, title = {Effects of ice and floods on vegetation in streams in cold regions: implications for climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {21}, pages = {4173-4184}, pmid = {25505542}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Riparian zones support some of the most dynamic and species-rich plant communities in cold regions. A common conception among plant ecologists is that flooding during the season when plants are dormant generally has little effect on the survival and production of riparian vegetation. We show that winter floods may also be of fundamental importance for the composition of riverine vegetation. We investigated the effects of ice formation on riparian and in-stream vegetation in northern Sweden using a combination of experiments and observations in 25 reaches, spanning a gradient from ice-free to ice-rich reaches. The ice-rich reaches were characterized by high production of frazil and anchor ice. In a couple of experiments, we exposed riparian vegetation to experimentally induced winter flooding, which reduced the dominant dwarf-shrub cover and led to colonization of a species-rich forb-dominated vegetation. In another experiment, natural winter floods caused by anchor-ice formation removed plant mimics both in the in-stream and in the riparian zone, further supporting the result that anchor ice maintains dynamic plant communities. With a warmer winter climate, ice-induced winter floods may first increase in frequency because of more frequent shifts between freezing and thawing during winter, but further warming and shortening of the winter might make them less common than today. If ice-induced winter floods become reduced in number because of a warming climate, an important disturbance agent for riparian and in-stream vegetation will be removed, leading to reduced species richness in streams and rivers in cold regions. Given that such regions are expected to have more plant species in the future because of immigration from the south, the distribution of species richness among habitats can be expected to show novel patterns.}, }
@article {pmid25505356, year = {2014}, author = {Garcia, RA and Araújo, MB and Burgess, ND and Foden, WB and Gutsche, A and Rahbek, C and Cabeza, M}, title = {Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change.}, journal = {Journal of biogeography}, volume = {41}, number = {4}, pages = {724-735}, pmid = {25505356}, issn = {0305-0270}, abstract = {AIM: Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species' distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence of newly suitable areas outside present distributions. Each of these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts with specific intrinsic traits of species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We present an analytical framework for examining projections of climate change-induced threats and opportunities with reference to traits that are likely to mediate species' responses, and illustrate the applicability of the framework.<br><br>LOCATION: Sub-Saharan Africa.<br><br>METHODS: We applied the framework to 195 sub-Saharan African amphibians with both available bioclimatic envelope model projections for the mid-21st century and trait data. Excluded were 500 narrow-ranging species mainly from montane areas. For each of projected losses, increased fragmentation and gains of climate space, we selected potential response-mediating traits and examined the spatial overlap with vulnerability due to these traits. We examined the overlap for all species, and individually for groups of species with different combinations of threats and opportunities.<br><br>RESULTS: In the Congo Basin and arid Southern Africa, projected losses for wide-ranging amphibians were compounded by sensitivity to climatic variation, and expected gains were precluded by poor dispersal ability. The spatial overlap between exposure and vulnerability was more pronounced for species projected to have their climate space contracting in situ or shifting to distant geographical areas. Our results exclude the potential exposure of narrow-ranging species to shrinking climates in the African tropical mountains.<br><br>MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We illustrate the application of a framework combining spatial projections of climate change exposure with traits that are likely to mediate species' responses. Although the proposed framework carries several assumptions that require further scrutiny, its application adds a degree of realism to familiar assessments that consider all species to be equally affected by climate change-induced threats and opportunities.}, }
@article {pmid25504863, year = {2015}, author = {Hararuk, O and Smith, MJ and Luo, Y}, title = {Microbial models with data-driven parameters predict stronger soil carbon responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {6}, pages = {2439-2453}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12827}, pmid = {25504863}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Calibration ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Long-term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities will respond. To date, the role of microbes in SOC dynamics has been implicitly described by decay rate constants in most conventional global carbon cycle models. Explicitly including microbial biomass dynamics into C cycle model formulations has shown potential to improve model predictive performance when assessed against global SOC databases. This study aimed to data-constrained parameters of two soil microbial models, evaluate the improvements in performance of those calibrated models in predicting contemporary carbon stocks, and compare the SOC responses to climate change and their uncertainties between microbial and conventional models. Microbial models with calibrated parameters explained 51% of variability in the observed total SOC, whereas a calibrated conventional model explained 41%. The microbial models, when forced with climate and soil carbon input predictions from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), produced stronger soil C responses to 95 years of climate change than any of the 11 CMIP5 models. The calibrated microbial models predicted between 8% (2-pool model) and 11% (4-pool model) soil C losses compared with CMIP5 model projections which ranged from a 7% loss to a 22.6% gain. Lastly, we observed unrealistic oscillatory SOC dynamics in the 2-pool microbial model. The 4-pool model also produced oscillations, but they were less prominent and could be avoided, depending on the parameter values.}, }
@article {pmid25501065, year = {2014}, author = {Pan, CL and Chiu, CW and Wen, JC}, title = {Adaptation and promotion of emergency medical service transportation for climate change.}, journal = {Medicine}, volume = {93}, number = {27}, pages = {e186}, pmid = {25501065}, issn = {1536-5964}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; *Disasters ; *Emergency Medical Services ; Humans ; Taiwan ; *Transportation ; }, abstract = {The purpose of this study is to find a proper prehospital transportation scenario planning of an emergency medical service (EMS) system for possible burdensome casualties resulting from extreme climate events. This project focuses on one of the worst natural catastrophic events in Taiwan, the 88 Wind-caused Disasters, caused by the Typhoon Morakot; the case of the EMS transportation in the Xiaolin village is reviewed and analyzed. The sequential-conveyance method is designed to promote the efficiency of all the ambulance services related to transportation time and distance. Initially, a proposed mobile emergency medical center (MEMC) is constructed in a safe location near the area of the disaster. The ambulances are classified into 2 categories: the first-line ambulances, which reciprocate between the MEMC and the disaster area to save time and shorten the working distances and the second-line ambulances, which transfer patients in critical condition from the MEMC to the requested hospitals for further treatment. According to the results, the sequential-conveyance method is more efficient than the conventional method for EMS transportation in a mass-casualty incident (MCI). This method improves the time efficiency by 52.15% and the distance efficiency by 56.02%. This case study concentrates on Xiaolin, a mountain village, which was heavily destroyed by a devastating mudslide during the Typhoon Morakot. The sequential-conveyance method for the EMS transportation in this research is not only more advantageous but also more rational in adaptation to climate change. Therefore, the findings are also important to all the decision-making with respect to a promoted EMS transportation, especially in an MCI.}, }
@article {pmid25499484, year = {2014}, author = {Wu, Q and Xia, X and Mou, X and Zhu, B and Zhao, P and Dong, H}, title = {Effects of seasonal climatic variability on several toxic contaminants in urban lakes: Implications for the impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {26}, number = {12}, pages = {2369-2378}, doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2014.04.001}, pmid = {25499484}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {Arsenic/*analysis ; Cities ; Climate Change ; Fluorides/*analysis ; Lakes/chemistry ; Phenols/*analysis ; *Seasons ; Selenium/*analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; Water Pollution, Chemical/analysis ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Climate change is supposed to have influences on water quality and ecosystem. However, only few studies have assessed the effect of climate change on environmental toxic contaminants in urban lakes. In this research, response of several toxic contaminants in twelve urban lakes in Beijing, China, to the seasonal variations in climatic factors was studied. Fluorides, volatile phenols, arsenic, selenium, and other water quality parameters were analyzed monthly from 2009 to 2012. Multivariate statistical methods including principle component analysis, cluster analysis, and multiple regression analysis were performed to study the relationship between contaminants and climatic factors including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and sunshine duration. Fluoride and arsenic concentrations in most urban lakes exhibited a significant positive correlation with temperature/precipitation, which is mainly caused by rainfall induced diffuse pollution. A negative correlation was observed between volatile phenols and temperature/precipitation, and this could be explained by their enhanced volatilization and biodegradation rates caused by higher temperature. Selenium did not show a significant response to climatic factor variations, which was attributed to low selenium contents in the lakes and soils. Moreover, the response degrees of contaminants to climatic variations differ among lakes with different contamination levels. On average, temperature/precipitation contributed to 8%, 15%, and 12% of the variations in volatile phenols, arsenic, and fluorides, respectively. Beijing is undergoing increased temperature and heavy rainfall frequency during the past five decades. This study suggests that water quality related to fluoride and arsenic concentrations of most urban lakes in Beijing is becoming worse under this climate change trend.}, }
@article {pmid25498769, year = {2014}, author = {Hoy, D and Roth, A and Lepers, C and Durham, J and Bell, J and Durand, A and Lal, PN and Souares, Y}, title = {Adapting to the health impacts of climate change in a sustainable manner.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {82}, pmid = {25498769}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; Delivery of Health Care/economics/*organization &amp; administration ; *Health Policy ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Internationality ; Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ; }, abstract = {The climate is changing and this poses significant threats to human health. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing Pacific Island countries and territories due to their unique geophysical features, and their social, economic and cultural characteristics. The Pacific region also faces challenges with widely dispersed populations, limited resources and fragmented health systems. Over the past few years, there has been a substantial increase in international aid for health activities aimed at adapting to the threats of climate change. This funding needs to be used strategically to ensure an effective approach to reducing the health risk from climate change. Respecting the principles of development effectiveness will result in more effective and sustainable adaptation, in particular, 1) processes should be owned and driven by local communities, 2) investments should be aligned with existing national priorities and policies, and 3) existing systems must not be ignored, but rather expanded upon and reinforced.}, }
@article {pmid25498001, year = {2014}, author = {Pedersen, UB and Stendel, M and Midzi, N and Mduluza, T and Soko, W and Stensgaard, AS and Vennervald, BJ and Mukaratirwa, S and Kristensen, TK}, title = {Modelling climate change impact on the spatial distribution of fresh water snails hosting trematodes in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {536}, pmid = {25498001}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; *Models, Biological ; Snails/*parasitology/physiology ; Trematoda/*physiology ; Zimbabwe ; Zoonoses ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Freshwater snails are intermediate hosts for a number of trematodes of which some are of medical and veterinary importance. The trematodes rely on specific species of snails to complete their life cycle; hence the ecology of the snails is a key element in transmission of the parasites. More than 200 million people are infected with schistosomes of which 95% live in sub-Saharan Africa and many more are living in areas where transmission is on-going. Human infection with the Fasciola parasite, usually considered more of veterinary concern, has recently been recognised as a human health problem. Many countries have implemented health programmes to reduce morbidity and prevalence of schistosomiasis, and control programmes to mitigate food-borne fascioliasis. As these programmes are resource demanding, baseline information on disease prevalence and distribution becomes of great importance. Such information can be made available and put into practice through maps depicting spatial distribution of the intermediate snail hosts.<br><br>METHODS: A biology driven model for the freshwater snails Bulinus globosus, Biomphalaria pfeifferi and Lymnaea natalensis was used to make predictions of snail habitat suitability by including potential underlying environmental and climatic drivers. The snail observation data originated from a nationwide survey in Zimbabwe and the prediction model was parameterised with a high resolution Regional Climate Model. Georeferenced prevalence data on urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis and fascioliasis was used to calibrate the snail habitat suitability predictions to produce binary maps of snail presence and absence.<br><br>RESULTS: Predicted snail habitat suitability across Zimbabwe, as well as the spatial distribution of snails, is reported for three time slices representative for present (1980-1999) and future climate (2046-2065 and 2080-2099).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: It is shown from the current study that snail habitat suitability is highly variable in Zimbabwe, with distinct high- and low- suitability areas and that temperature may be the main driving factor. It is concluded that future climate change in Zimbabwe may cause a reduced spatial distribution of suitable habitat of host snails with a probable exception of Bi. pfeifferi, the intermediate host for intestinal schistosomiasis that may increase around 2055 before declining towards 2100.}, }
@article {pmid25497187, year = {2014}, author = {Neira, M and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Maiero, M and Dora, C and Bustreo, F}, title = {Health and climate change: the end of the beginning?.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {384}, number = {9960}, pages = {2085-2086}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61899-7}, pmid = {25497187}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Global Health ; Humans ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid25496072, year = {2014}, author = {Akil, L and Ahmad, HA and Reddy, RS}, title = {Effects of climate change on Salmonella infections.}, journal = {Foodborne pathogens and disease}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {974-980}, pmid = {25496072}, issn = {1556-7125}, support = {G12 MD007581/MD/NIMHD NIH HHS/United States ; G12MD007581/MD/NIMHD NIH HHS/United States ; G12RR013459/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Alabama/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Mississippi/epidemiology ; Neural Networks, Computer ; *Population Surveillance ; Regression Analysis ; Salmonella Infections/*epidemiology ; Seasons ; Tennessee/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and global warming have been reported to increase spread of foodborne pathogens. To understand these effects on Salmonella infections, modeling approaches such as regression analysis and neural network (NN) were used.<br><br>METHODS: Monthly data for Salmonella outbreaks in Mississippi (MS), Tennessee (TN), and Alabama (AL) were analyzed from 2002 to 2011 using analysis of variance and time series analysis. Meteorological data were collected and the correlation with salmonellosis was examined using regression analysis and NN.<br><br>RESULTS: A seasonal trend in Salmonella infections was observed (p<0.001). Strong positive correlation was found between high temperature and Salmonella infections in MS and for the combined states (MS, TN, AL) models (R(2)=0.554; R(2)=0.415, respectively). NN models showed a strong effect of rise in temperature on the Salmonella outbreaks. In this study, an increase of 1&#xb0;F was shown to result in four cases increase of Salmonella in MS. However, no correlation between monthly average precipitation rate and Salmonella infections was observed.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There is consistent evidence that gastrointestinal infection with bacterial pathogens is positively correlated with ambient temperature, as warmer temperatures enable more rapid replication. Warming trends in the United States and specifically in the southern states may increase rates of Salmonella infections.}, }
@article {pmid25493706, year = {2015}, author = {Guo, B and Naish, S and Hu, W and Tong, S}, title = {The potential impact of climate change and ultraviolet radiation on vaccine-preventable infectious diseases and immunization service delivery system.}, journal = {Expert review of vaccines}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {561-577}, doi = {10.1586/14760584.2014.990387}, pmid = {25493706}, issn = {1744-8395}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Health Services Administration ; Humans ; Immunization/*methods ; Immunization Programs/organization &amp; administration ; *Radiation ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; Vaccines/supply &amp; distribution ; }, abstract = {Climate change and solar ultraviolet radiation may affect vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPID), the human immune response process and the immunization service delivery system. We systematically reviewed the scientific literature and identified 37 relevant publications. Our study shows that climate variability and ultraviolet radiation may potentially affect VPID and the immunization delivery system through modulating vector reproduction and vaccination effectiveness, possibly influencing human immune response systems to the vaccination, and disturbing immunization service delivery. Further research is needed to determine these affects on climate-sensitive VPID and on human immune response to common vaccines. Such research will facilitate the development and delivery of optimal vaccination programs for target populations, to meet the goal of disease control and elimination.}, }
@article {pmid25491318, year = {2015}, author = {Bornman, JF and Paul, N and Shao, M}, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: 2014 assessment. Introduction.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1039/c4pp90040e}, pmid = {25491318}, issn = {1474-9092}, }
@article {pmid25491136, year = {2015}, author = {Reiner, RC and Smith, DL and Gething, PW}, title = {Climate change, urbanization and disease: summer in the city….}, journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene}, volume = {109}, number = {3}, pages = {171-172}, pmid = {25491136}, issn = {1878-3503}, support = {//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Cities/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; Humans ; Rural Population/trends ; *Seasons ; Suburban Population/trends ; *Tropical Climate ; *Urban Health/trends ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Climate change and urbanization can alter the burden of human diseases. The tropics, a region that includes the poorest populations and highest disease burdens, are expected to get slightly hotter and substantially more urban. Studies have projected changing burdens under different climate or urbanization scenarios, but it remains unclear what will happen if both happen at once. Interactions could amplify disease burdens, improve health overall, or shift burdens around. Social planners need better data on contemporary seasonal disease incidence patterns across the spectrum of climate, urbanicity and socio-economic status. How climate change, urbanization and health interact must be understood to adequately plan for the future.}, }
@article {pmid25489077, year = {2014}, author = {Iglesias, V and Whitlock, C}, title = {Fire responses to postglacial climate change and human impact in northern Patagonia (41-43°S).}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {51}, pages = {E5545-54}, pmid = {25489077}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Argentina ; Chile ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fires ; Forests ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Forest/steppe boundaries are among the most dynamic ecosystems on Earth and are highly vulnerable to changes in climate and land use. In this study we examine the postglacial history of the Patagonian forest/steppe ecotone (41-43°S) to better understand its sensitivity to past variations in climate, disturbance, and human activity before European colonization. We present regional trends in vegetation and biomass burning, as detected by generalized additive models fitted to seven pollen and charcoal records, and compare the results with other paleoenvironmental data, as well as archeological and ecological information to (i) estimate postglacial fire trends at regional scales, (ii) assess the evolution of climate-vegetation-fire linkages over the last 18,000 calibrated (cal) years B.P., and (iii) evaluate the role of humans in altering pre-European landscapes and fire regimes. Pollen and charcoal data indicate that biomass burning was relatively low during warm/dry steppe-dominated landscapes in the late glacial/Early Holocene transition and increased as more humid conditions favored forest development after ca. 10,000 cal years B.P. Postglacial fire activity was thus limited by fuel availability associated with sparse vegetation cover rather than by suitable climate conditions. In contrast to extensive burning by European settlers, variations in indigenous population densities were not associated with fluctuations in regional or watershed-scale fire occurrence, suggesting that climate-vegetation-fire linkages in northern Patagonia evolved with minimal or very localized human influences before European settlement.}, }
@article {pmid25489070, year = {2014}, author = {Huntley, JW and Fürsich, FT and Alberti, M and Hethke, M and Liu, C}, title = {A complete Holocene record of trematode-bivalve infection and implications for the response of parasitism to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {51}, pages = {18150-18155}, pmid = {25489070}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Bivalvia/*parasitology ; *Climate Change ; Fossils ; History, Ancient ; Trematoda/*pathogenicity ; }, abstract = {Increasing global temperature and sea-level rise have led to concern about expansions in the distribution and prevalence of complex-lifecycle parasites (CLPs). Indeed, numerous environmental variables can influence the infectivity and reproductive output of many pathogens. Digenean trematodes are CLPs with intermediate invertebrate and definitive vertebrate hosts. Global warming and sea level rise may affect these hosts to varying degrees, and the effect of increasing temperature on parasite prevalence has proven to be nonlinear and difficult to predict. Projecting the response of parasites to anthropogenic climate change is vital for human health, and a longer term perspective (10(4) y) offered by the subfossil record is necessary to complement the experimental and historical approaches of shorter temporal duration (10(-1) to 10(3) y). We demonstrate, using a high-resolution 9,600-y record of trematode parasite traces in bivalve hosts from the Holocene Pearl River Delta, that prevalence was significantly higher during the earliest stages of sea level rise, significantly lower during the maximum transgression, and statistically indistinguishable in the other stages of sea-level rise and delta progradation. This stratigraphic paleobiological pattern represents the only long-term high-resolution record of pathogen response to global change, is consistent with fossil and recent data from other marine basins, and is instructive regarding the future of disease. We predict an increase in trematode prevalence concurrent with anthropogenic warming and marine transgression, with negative implications for estuarine macrobenthos, marine fisheries, and human health.}, }
@article {pmid25482514, year = {2018}, author = {Abrams, MD and Nowacki, GJ}, title = {Large-scale catastrophic disturbance regimes can mask climate change impacts on vegetation - a reply to Pederson et al. (2014).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {e395-e396}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12828}, pmid = {25482514}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Fires ; }, }
@article {pmid25482202, year = {2015}, author = {Gillings, S and Balmer, DE and Fuller, RJ}, title = {Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {6}, pages = {2155-2168}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12823}, pmid = {25482202}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988-1991 and 2008-2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north-west and north-east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer-effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north-north-westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species-specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more appropriate measures of observed and expected responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25479764, year = {2015}, author = {Bellard, C and Russell, J and Hoffmann, BD and Leclerc, C and Courchamp, F}, title = {Adapting island conservation to climate change. Response to Andréfouët et al.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {2-3}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2014.11.003}, pmid = {25479764}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/*trends ; *Islands ; }, }
@article {pmid25478145, year = {2014}, author = {Allen, RB and Hurst, JM and Portier, J and Richardson, SJ}, title = {Elevation-dependent responses of tree mast seeding to climate change over 45 years.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {18}, pages = {3525-3537}, pmid = {25478145}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {We use seed count data from a New Zealand mono-specific mountain beech forest to test for decadal trends in seed production along an elevation gradient in relation to changes in climate. Seedfall was collected (1965 to 2009) from seed trays located on transect lines at fixed elevations along an elevation gradient (1020 to 1370 m). We counted the number of seeds in the catch of each tray, for each year, and determined the number of viable seeds. Climate variables were obtained from a nearby (<2 km) climate station (914-m elevation). Variables were the sum or mean of daily measurements, using periods within each year known to correlate with subsequent interannual variation in seed production. To determine trends in mean seed production, at each elevation, and climate variables, we used generalized least squares (GLS) regression. We demonstrate a trend of increasing total and viable seed production, particularly at higher elevations, which emerged from marked interannual variation. Significant changes in four seasonal climate variables had GLS regression coefficients consistent with predictions of increased seed production. These variables subsumed the effect of year in GLS regressions with a greater influence on seed production with increasing elevation. Regression models enforce a view that the sequence of climate variables was additive in their influence on seed production throughout a reproductive cycle spanning more than 2 years and including three summers. Models with the most support always included summer precipitation as the earliest variable in the sequence followed by summer maximum daily temperatures. We interpret this as reflecting precipitation driven increases in soil nutrient availability enhancing seed production at higher elevations rather than the direct effects of climate, stand development or rising atmospheric CO2 partial pressures. Greater sensitivity of tree seeding at higher elevations to changes in climate reveals how ecosystem responses to climate change will be spatially variable.}, }
@article {pmid25477831, year = {2014}, author = {Page, N and Page, M}, title = {Climate change: time to Do Something Different.}, journal = {Frontiers in psychology}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {1294}, pmid = {25477831}, issn = {1664-1078}, abstract = {There is now very little, if any, doubt that the global climate is changing and that this is in some way related to human behavior through unsustainable preferences in lifestyle and organizational practices. Despite the near conclusive evidence of the positive relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, a small proportion of people remain unconvinced. More importantly, even among the much larger number of people who accept a link between human behavior and climate change, many are inactive, or insufficiently active, in attempting to remedy the situation. We suggest this is partly because people are unaware both of how their day-to-day behaviors connect with energy consumption and carbon emissions, and of the behavioral alternatives that are available to them. This, we believe, is a key reason why individual lifestyles and organizational practices continue in an unsustainable way. We also suggest that the psychologists and behavioral researchers who seek to develop a better understanding of people's relationship with, and reaction to, environmental issues, might also be on track to suffer a similar blindness. They risk becoming fixed on investigating a limited range of established variables, perhaps to the detriment of alternative approaches that are more practically oriented though, so far, less well explored empirically. In this article, we present the Framework for Internal Transformation as an alternative perspective on the variables that might underpin pro-environmental activity and behavior change. After briefly reviewing the related literature, we outline that framework. Then we present some early empirical data to show its relationship to a range of pro-environmental indices. We follow with a discussion of the framework's relevance in relation to pro-environmental behavior change and make proposals for future research.}, }
@article {pmid25474614, year = {2014}, author = {Chang, AY and Fuller, DO and Carrasquillo, O and Beier, JC}, title = {Social justice, climate change, and dengue.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {93-104}, pmid = {25474614}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology/etiology ; Disasters ; Humans ; *Social Justice ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change should be viewed fundamentally as an issue of global justice. Understanding the complex interplay of climatic and socioeconomic trends is imperative to protect human health and lessen the burden of diseases such as dengue fever. Dengue fever is rapidly expanding globally. Temperature, rainfall, and frequency of natural disasters, as well as non-climatic trends involving population growth and migration, urbanization, and international trade and travel, are expected to increase the prevalence of mosquito breeding sites, mosquito survival, the speed of mosquito reproduction, the speed of viral incubation, the distribution of dengue virus and its vectors, human migration patterns towards urban areas, and displacement after natural disasters. The burden of dengue disproportionately affects the poor due to increased environmental risk and decreased health care. Mobilization of social institutions is needed to improve the structural inequalities of poverty that predispose the poor to increased dengue fever infection and worse outcomes. This paper reviews the link between dengue and climatic factors as a starting point to developing a comprehensive understanding of how climate change affects dengue risk and how institutions can address the issues of social justice and dengue outbreaks that increasingly affect vulnerable urban populations.}, }
@article {pmid25474611, year = {2014}, author = {Jones, R and Bennett, H and Keating, G and Blaiklock, A}, title = {Climate change and the right to health for Māori in Aotearoa/New Zealand.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {54-68}, pmid = {25474611}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Status ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Mental Health ; *Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ; New Zealand ; Social Determinants of Health ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change is widely regarded as one of the most serious global health threats of the 21st century. Its impacts will be disproportionately borne by the most disadvantaged populations, including indigenous peoples. For Māori in Aotearoa/New Zealand, as with other indigenous peoples worldwide, colonization has led to dispossession of land, destabilization of cultural foundations, and social, economic, and political marginalization. Climate change threatens to exacerbate these processes, adding future insult to historical and contemporary injury. Yet the challenges posed by climate change are accompanied by considerable opportunities to advance indigenous rights and reduce health disparities. In this paper, we examine issues related to climate change and Māori health using a right to health analytical framework, which identifies obligations for the New Zealand government.}, }
@article {pmid25474608, year = {2014}, author = {Levy, BS and Sidel, VW}, title = {Collective violence caused by climate change and how it threatens health and human rights.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {32-40}, pmid = {25474608}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disasters ; Global Health ; Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; Meta-Analysis as Topic ; Rain ; *Violence ; }, abstract = {The weight of scientific evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence. This evidence arises from individual studies over wide ranges of time and geographic location, and from two extensive meta-analyses. Complex pathways that underlie this association are not fully understood; however, increased ambient temperatures and extremes of rainfall, with their resultant adverse impacts on the environment and risk factors for violence, appear to play key roles. Collective violence due to climate change poses serious threats to health and human rights, including by causing morbidity and mortality directly and also indirectly by damage to the health-supporting infrastructure of society, forcing people to migrate from their homes and communities, damaging the environment, and diverting human and financial resources. This paper also briefly addresses issues for future research on the relationship between climate change and collective violence, the prevention of collective violence due to climate change, and States' obligations to protect human rights, to prevent collective violence, and to promote and support measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25474607, year = {2014}, author = {Gibbons, ED}, title = {Climate change, children's rights, and the pursuit of intergenerational climate justice.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {19-31}, pmid = {25474607}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Health/ethics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Climate Change ; *Human Rights/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Social Justice/ethics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Frequently forgotten in the global discussions and agreements on climate change are children and young people, who both disproportionately suffer the consequences of a rapidly changing climate, yet also offer innovative solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (climate change mitigation) and adapt to climate change. Existing evidence is presented of the disproportionately harmful impact of climate-induced changes in precipitation and extreme weather events on today's children, especially in the Global South. This paper examines the existing global climate change agreements under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change for evidence of attention to children and intergenerational climate justice, and suggests the almost universally ratified Convention on the Rights of the Child be leveraged to advance intergenerational climate justice.}, }
@article {pmid25474605, year = {2014}, author = {McAllister, L and Magee, A and Hale, B}, title = {Women, e-waste, and technological solutions to climate change.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {166-178}, pmid = {25474605}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Female ; Humans ; Social Justice ; Solid Waste/*adverse effects ; *Technology ; Vulnerable Populations ; *Women's Health ; }, abstract = {In this paper, we argue that a crossover class of climate change solutions (which we term "technological solutions") may disproportionately and adversely impact some populations over others. We begin by situating our discussion in the wider climate discourse, particularly with regard to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Basel Convention. We then suggest that many of the most attractive technological solutions to climate change, such as solar energy and electric car batteries, will likely add to the rapidly growing stream of electronic waste ("e-waste"). This e-waste may have negative downstream effects on otherwise disenfranchised populations. We argue that e-waste burdens women unfairly and disproportionately, affecting their mortality/morbidity and fertility, as well as the development of their children. Building on this, we claim that these injustices are more accurately captured as problems of recognition rather than distribution, since women are often institutionally under-acknowledged both in the workplace and in the home. Without institutional support and representation, women and children are deprived of adequate safety equipment, health precautions, and health insurance. Finally, we return to the question of climate justice in the context of the human right to health and argue for greater inclusion and recognition of women waste workers and other disenfranchised groups in forging future climate agreements.}, }
@article {pmid25474600, year = {2014}, author = {Sheffield, PE and Durante, KT and Rahona, E and Zarcadoolas, C}, title = {Emerging roles of health care providers to mitigate climate change impacts: a perspective from East Harlem, New York.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {113-121}, pmid = {25474600}, issn = {2150-4113}, support = {L40 ES017745/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES023515/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T32 HD049311/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; 5T32 HD049311/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Focus Groups ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; Information Dissemination ; New York City ; *Professional Role ; Qualitative Research ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Professional associations of health care workers are issuing policy statements on climate change and health with greater frequency, calling on their members to act in their duty to protect and fulfill the right to health. These health care providers' perceptions of their roles in the intersection of climate and health, however, have not been well-studied. This article presents results from a qualitative study using focus groups conducted with health care providers serving the low-income, ethnic minority population in East Harlem, New York. The focus groups sought to identify and explore providers' perceived health threats of climate change, as well as their perceived role as frontline disseminators of information and detectors of disease for their patients. Extreme heat events were used to frame the discussion in each group. Three major themes emerged: 1) environmental awareness, 2) an "ecohealth" lens, and 3) heat and health vulnerability. The participants demonstrated their interest in playing a role in climate change adaptation by identifying at-risk patients and helping to tailor clinical care to better serve these individuals.}, }
@article {pmid25474599, year = {2014}, author = {Meason, B and Paterson, R}, title = {Chikungunya, climate change, and human rights.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {105-112}, pmid = {25474599}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {Animals ; Chikungunya Fever/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Climate Change ; Culicidae/virology ; Global Warming ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/virology ; }, abstract = {Chikungunya is a re-emerging arbovirus that causes significant morbidity and some mortality. Global climate change leading to warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns allow mosquito vectors to thrive at altitudes and at locations where they previously have not, ultimately leading to a spread of mosquito-borne diseases. While mutations to the chikungunya virus are responsible for some portion of the re-emergence, chikungunya epidemiology is closely tied with weather patterns in Southeast Asia. Extrapolation of this regional pattern, combined with known climate factors impacting the spread of malaria and dengue, summate to a dark picture of climate change and the spread of this disease from south Asia and Africa into Europe and North America. This review describes chikungunya and collates current data regarding its spread in which climate change plays an important part. We also examine human rights obligations of States and others to protect against this disease.}, }
@article {pmid25473469, year = {2014}, author = {Pinkernell, S and Beszteri, B}, title = {Potential effects of climate change on the distribution range of the main silicate sinker of the Southern Ocean.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {16}, pages = {3147-3161}, pmid = {25473469}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.}, }
@article {pmid25472830, year = {2015}, author = {Faccioli, M and Riera Font, A and Torres Figuerola, CM}, title = {Valuing the recreational benefits of wetland adaptation to climate change: a trade-off between species' abundance and diversity.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, pages = {550-563}, pmid = {25472830}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods ; Humans ; Mediterranean Region ; Population Dynamics ; *Recreation ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Climate change will further exacerbate wetland deterioration, especially in the Mediterranean region. On the one side, it will accelerate the decline in the populations and species of plants and animals, this resulting in an impoverishment of biological abundance. On the other one, it will also promote biotic homogenization, resulting in a loss of species' diversity. In this context, different climate change adaptation policies can be designed: those oriented to recovering species' abundance and those aimed at restoring species' diversity. Based on the awareness that knowledge about visitors' preferences is crucial to better inform policy makers and secure wetlands' public use and conservation, this paper assesses the recreational benefits of different adaptation options through a choice experiment study carried out in S'Albufera wetland (Mallorca). Results show that visitors display positive preferences for an increase in both species' abundance and diversity, although they assign a higher value to the latter, thus suggesting a higher social acceptability of policies pursuing wetlands' differentiation. This finding acquires special relevance not only for adaptation management in wetlands but also for tourism planning, as most visitors to S'Albufera are tourists. Thus, given the growing competition to attract visitors and the increasing demand for high environmental quality and unique experiences, promoting wetlands' differentiation could be a good strategy to gain competitive advantage over other wetland areas and tourism destinations.}, }
@article {pmid25471866, year = {2014}, author = {Giosan, L and Syvitski, J and Constantinescu, S and Day, J}, title = {Climate change: protect the world's deltas.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {516}, number = {7529}, pages = {31-33}, pmid = {25471866}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Engineering ; Environmental Policy ; Floods ; Oceans and Seas ; *Rivers ; }, }
@article {pmid25471349, year = {2016}, author = {Asplund, T}, title = {Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers' joint construction of climate perceptions.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {25}, number = {5}, pages = {560-575}, doi = {10.1177/0963662514559655}, pmid = {25471349}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Farmers/*psychology ; Focus Groups ; *Perception ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25470363, year = {2015}, author = {Anderson, JT and Gezon, ZJ}, title = {Plasticity in functional traits in the context of climate change: a case study of the subalpine forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {1689-1703}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12770}, pmid = {25470363}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Altitude ; Brassicaceae/anatomy &amp; histology/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Colorado ; *Genetic Variation ; *Phenotype ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Snow ; }, abstract = {Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ, and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low-elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2-3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco-evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness declines due to changing climates.}, }
@article {pmid25469157, year = {2014}, author = {Simon, JA and Marrotte, RR and Desrosiers, N and Fiset, J and Gaitan, J and Gonzalez, A and Koffi, JK and Lapointe, FJ and Leighton, PA and Lindsay, LR and Logan, T and Milord, F and Ogden, NH and Rogic, A and Roy-Dufresne, E and Suter, D and Tessier, N and Millien, V}, title = {Climate change and habitat fragmentation drive the occurrence of Borrelia burgdorferi, the agent of Lyme disease, at the northeastern limit of its distribution.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {750-764}, pmid = {25469157}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Lyme borreliosis is rapidly emerging in Canada, and climate change is likely a key driver of the northern spread of the disease in North America. We used field and modeling approaches to predict the risk of occurrence of Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacteria causing Lyme disease in North America. We combined climatic and landscape variables to model the current and future (2050) potential distribution of the black-legged tick and the white-footed mouse at the northeastern range limit of Lyme disease and estimated a risk index for B. burgdorferi from these distributions. The risk index was mostly constrained by the distribution of the white-footed mouse, driven by winter climatic conditions. The next factor contributing to the risk index was the distribution of the black-legged tick, estimated from the temperature. Landscape variables such as forest habitat and connectivity contributed little to the risk index. We predict a further northern expansion of B. burgdorferi of approximately 250-500 km by 2050 - a rate of 3.5-11 km per year - and identify areas of rapid rise in the risk of occurrence of B. burgdorferi. Our results will improve understanding of the spread of Lyme disease and inform management strategies at the most northern limit of its distribution.}, }
@article {pmid25468002, year = {2016}, author = {Zhao, X and Rolfe-Redding, J and Kotcher, JE}, title = {Partisan differences in the relationship between newspaper coverage and concern over global warming.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {25}, number = {5}, pages = {543-559}, doi = {10.1177/0963662514558992}, pmid = {25468002}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Mass Media ; *Politics ; *Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {The effects of news media on public opinion about global warming have been a topic of much interest in both academic and popular discourse. Empirical evidence in this regard, however, is still limited and somewhat mixed. This study used data from the 2006 General Social Survey in combination with a content analysis of newspaper coverage of the same time period to examine the relationship between general news climate and public concern about global warming. Results showed a pattern of political polarization, with increased coverage associated with growing divergence between Democrats and Republicans. Further analysis also showed evidence of reactivity in partisan response to coverage from different news outlets. These findings point to a particular form of politically motivated, biased processing of news information.}, }
@article {pmid25465335, year = {2014}, author = {Willmer, P}, title = {Climate change: bees and orchids lose touch.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {24}, number = {23}, pages = {R1133-5}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2014.10.061}, pmid = {25465335}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees/*physiology ; Female ; Flowers/*physiology ; Male ; Orchidaceae/*physiology ; *Pollination ; }, abstract = {Spring temperature increases could differentially affect flowering times and pollinator flight periods, leading to asynchrony and reduced pollination. A specialist orchid-bee study combining herbarium, museum and field data shows that bee flight dates are advancing faster than orchid flowering, which could lead to significant future uncoupling.}, }
@article {pmid25464138, year = {2014}, author = {Sarfaty, M and Mitchell, M and Bloodhart, B and Maibach, EW}, title = {A survey of African American physicians on the health effects of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {12473-12485}, pmid = {25464138}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; Black or African American ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Physicians ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {The U.S. National Climate Assessment concluded that climate change is harming the health of many Americans and identified people in some communities of color as particularly vulnerable to these effects. In Spring 2014, we surveyed members of the National Medical Association, a society of African American physicians who care for a disproportionate number of African American patients, to determine whether they were seeing the health effects of climate change in their practices; the response rate was 30% (n = 284). Over 86% of respondents indicated that climate change was relevant to direct patient care, and 61% that their own patients were already being harmed by climate change moderately or a great deal. The most commonly reported health effects were injuries from severe storms, floods, and wildfires (88%), increases in severity of chronic disease due to air pollution (88%), and allergic symptoms from prolonged exposure to plants or mold (80%). The majority of survey respondents support medical training, patient and public education regarding the impact of climate change on health, and advocacy by their professional society; nearly all respondents indicated that the US should invest in significant efforts to protect people from the health effects of climate change (88%), and to reduce the potential impacts of climate change (93%). These findings suggest that African American physicians are currently seeing the health impacts of climate change among their patients, and that they support a range of responses by the medical profession, and public policy makers, to prevent further harm.}, }
@article {pmid25464133, year = {2014}, author = {Boeckmann, M and Zeeb, H}, title = {Using a social justice and health framework to assess European climate change adaptation strategies.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {12389-12411}, pmid = {25464133}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Europe ; *Government Programs ; *Health Planning ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Public Health ; Risk Management/organization &amp; administration ; *Social Justice ; }, abstract = {Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents.}, }
@article {pmid25463720, year = {2015}, author = {Schlüsener, MP and Hardenbicker, P and Nilson, E and Schulz, M and Viergutz, C and Ternes, TA}, title = {Occurrence of venlafaxine, other antidepressants and selected metabolites in the Rhine catchment in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {196}, number = {}, pages = {247-256}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2014.09.019}, pmid = {25463720}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Antidepressive Agents/*analysis ; Climate Change ; Cyclohexanols/*analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; Germany ; Humans ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors/analysis ; Venlafaxine Hydrochloride ; Wastewater/chemistry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Fate and occurrence of 4 selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, one serotonin-noradrenergic reuptake inhibitor and one noradrenergic-dopamineric reuptake inhibitor and their human metabolites were determined in a German municipal wastewater treatment plant as well as in the Rhine River and selected tributaries. The enantiomeric fractions of venlafaxine and its metabolites were not altered during wastewater treatment and were similar in all river samples underlining that no appreciable biodegradation occurs. In the Rhine catchment area highest concentrations were detected for venlafaxine, citalopram and their human metabolites. Projected future climate change would lead to an increased portion of treated wastewater in rivers due to reduced discharges during low flow situations by the end of the 21st century. However, the effect of climate change on the pattern and concentrations of antidepressants is predicted to be of minor importance in comparison to altered consumption quantities caused by demographic developments and changes in life styles.}, }
@article {pmid25462972, year = {2015}, author = {Salazar-Parra, C and Aranjuelo, I and Pascual, I and Erice, G and Sanz-Sáez, &#xc1; and Aguirreolea, J and Sánchez-Díaz, M and Irigoyen, JJ and Araus, JL and Morales, F}, title = {Carbon balance, partitioning and photosynthetic acclimation in fruit-bearing grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cv. Tempranillo) grown under simulated climate change (elevated CO2, elevated temperature and moderate drought) scenarios in temperature gradient greenhouses.}, journal = {Journal of plant physiology}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {97-109}, doi = {10.1016/j.jplph.2014.10.009}, pmid = {25462972}, issn = {1618-1328}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*drug effects ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; Carbon Isotopes ; Cell Respiration/drug effects ; Chlorophyll/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Electron Transport/drug effects ; Fluorescence ; Fruit/drug effects/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Photosynthesis/*drug effects ; Photosystem II Protein Complex/metabolism ; Pigments, Biological/metabolism ; Plant Stomata/drug effects/physiology ; Ribulose-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/metabolism ; Temperature ; Vitis/drug effects/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {Although plant performance under elevated CO2 has been extensively studied in the past little is known about photosynthetic performance changing simultaneously CO2, water availability and temperature conditions. Moreover, despite of its relevancy in crop responsiveness to elevated CO2 conditions, plant level C balance is a topic that, comparatively, has received little attention. In order to test responsiveness of grapevine photosynthetic apparatus to predicted climate change conditions, grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cv. Tempranillo) fruit-bearing cuttings were exposed to different CO2 (elevated, 700ppm vs. ambient, ca. 400ppm), temperature (ambient vs. elevated, ambient +4°C) and irrigation levels (partial vs. full irrigation). Carbon balance was followed monitoring net photosynthesis (AN, C gain), respiration (RD) and photorespiration (RL) (C losses). Modification of environment (13)C isotopic composition (δ(13)C) under elevated CO2 (from -10.30 to -24.93‰) enabled the further characterization of C partitioning into roots, cuttings, shoots, petioles, leaves, rachides and berries. Irrespective of irrigation level and temperature, exposure to elevated CO2 induced photosynthetic acclimation of plants. C/N imbalance reflected the inability of plants grown at 700ppm CO2 to develop strong C sinks. Partitioning of labeled C to storage organs (main stem and roots) did not avoid accumulation of labeled photoassimilates in leaves, affecting negatively Rubisco carboxylation activity. The study also revealed that, after 20 days of treatment, no oxidative damage to chlorophylls or carotenoids was observed, suggesting a protective role of CO2 either at current or elevated temperatures against the adverse effect of water stress.}, }
@article {pmid25462589, year = {2014}, author = {Gschwendtner, S and Tejedor, J and Bimüller, C and Dannenmann, M and Kögel-Knabner, I and Schloter, M}, title = {Climate change induces shifts in abundance and activity pattern of bacteria and archaea catalyzing major transformation steps in nitrogen turnover in a soil from a mid-European beech forest.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {e114278}, pmid = {25462589}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Archaea/*metabolism ; Bacteria/*metabolism ; Catalysis ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Fagus/*metabolism ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change will lead to more extreme weather events, including severe drought periods and intense drying rewetting cycles. This will directly influence microbial nitrogen (N) turnover rates in soil by changing the water content and the oxygen partial pressure. Therefore, a space for time climate change experiment was conducted by transferring intact beech seedling-soil mesocosms from a northwest (NW) exposed site, representing today's climatic conditions, to a southwest (SW) exposed site, providing a model climate for future conditions with naturally occurring increased soil temperature (+0.8°C in average). In addition, severe drought and intense rainfall was simulated by a rainout shelter at SW and manual rewetting after 39 days drought, respectively. Soil samples were taken in June, at the end of the drought period (August), 24 and 72 hours after rewetting (August) and after a regeneration period of four weeks (September). To follow dynamics of bacterial and archaeal communities involved in N turnover, abundance and activity of nitrifiers, denitrifiers, N2-fixing microbes and N-mineralizers was analyzed based on marker genes and the related transcripts by qPCR from DNA and RNA directly extracted from soil. Abundance of the transcripts was reduced under climate change with most pronounced effects for denitrification. Our results revealed that already a transfer from NW to SW without further treatment resulted in decreased cnor and nosZ transcripts, encoding for nitric oxide reductase and nitrous oxide reductase, respectively, while nirK transcripts, encoding for nitrite reductase, remained unaffected. Severe drought additionally led to reduced nirK and cnor transcripts at SW. After rewetting, nirK transcripts increased rapidly at both sites, while cnor and nosZ transcripts increased only at NW. Our data indicate that the climate change influences activity pattern of microbial communities involved in denitrification processes to a different extend, which may impact emission rates of the greenhouse gas N2O.}, }
@article {pmid25457045, year = {2014}, author = {Pacheco, JM and Vasconcelos, VV and Santos, FC}, title = {Climate governance as a complex adaptive system: reply to comments on "climate change governance, cooperation and self-organization".}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {595-597}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2014.10.003}, pmid = {25457045}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25453073, year = {2015}, author = {Lopes, C and Kucera, M and Mix, AC}, title = {Climate change decouples oceanic primary and export productivity and organic carbon burial.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {2}, pages = {332-335}, pmid = {25453073}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Understanding responses of oceanic primary productivity, carbon export, and burial to climate change is essential for model-based projection of biological feedbacks in a high-CO2 world. Here we compare estimates of productivity based on the composition of fossil diatom floras with organic carbon burial off Oregon in the Northeast Pacific across a large climatic transition at the last glacial termination. Although estimated primary productivity was highest during the Last Glacial Maximum, carbon burial was lowest, reflecting reduced preservation linked to low sedimentation rates. A diatom size index further points to a glacial decrease (and deglacial increase) in the fraction of fixed carbon that was exported, inferred to reflect expansion, and contraction, of subpolar ecosystems that today favor smaller plankton. Thus, in contrast to models that link remineralization of carbon to temperature, in the Northeast Pacific, we find dominant ecosystem and sea floor control such that intervals of warming climate had more efficient carbon export and higher carbon burial despite falling primary productivity.}, }
@article {pmid25453065, year = {2014}, author = {Zazula, GD and MacPhee, RD and Metcalfe, JZ and Reyes, AV and Brock, F and Druckenmiller, PS and Groves, P and Harington, CR and Hodgins, GW and Kunz, ML and Longstaffe, FJ and Mann, DH and McDonald, HG and Nalawade-Chavan, S and Southon, JR}, title = {American mastodon extirpation in the Arctic and Subarctic predates human colonization and terminal Pleistocene climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {52}, pages = {18460-18465}, pmid = {25453065}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Alaska ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Fossils ; Humans ; Mastodons/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Existing radiocarbon ((14)C) dates on American mastodon (Mammut americanum) fossils from eastern Beringia (Alaska and Yukon) have been interpreted as evidence they inhabited the Arctic and Subarctic during Pleistocene full-glacial times (∼ 18,000 (14)C years B.P.). However, this chronology is inconsistent with inferred habitat preferences of mastodons and correlative paleoecological evidence. To establish a last appearance date (LAD) for M. americanum regionally, we obtained 53 new (14)C dates on 36 fossils, including specimens with previously published dates. Using collagen ultrafiltration and single amino acid (hydroxyproline) methods, these specimens consistently date to beyond or near the ∼ 50,000 y B.P. limit of (14)C dating. Some erroneously "young" (14)C dates are due to contamination by exogenous carbon from natural sources and conservation treatments used in museums. We suggest mastodons inhabited the high latitudes only during warm intervals, particularly the Last Interglacial [Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5] when boreal forests existed regionally. Our (14)C dataset suggests that mastodons were extirpated from eastern Beringia during the MIS 4 glacial interval (∼ 75,000 y ago), following the ecological shift from boreal forest to steppe tundra. Mastodons thereafter became restricted to areas south of the continental ice sheets, where they suffered complete extinction ∼ 10,000 (14)C years B.P. Mastodons were already absent from eastern Beringia several tens of millennia before the first humans crossed the Bering Isthmus or the onset of climate changes during the terminal Pleistocene. Local extirpations of mastodons and other megafaunal populations in eastern Beringia were asynchrononous and independent of their final extinction south of the continental ice sheets.}, }
@article {pmid25452694, year = {2014}, author = {Hutton, G and Menne, B}, title = {Economic evidence on the health impacts of climate change in europe.}, journal = {Environmental health insights}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {43-52}, pmid = {25452694}, issn = {1178-6302}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending.<br><br>METHODS: The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts).<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions threatening Europe.}, }
@article {pmid25452247, year = {2015}, author = {Harrison, S and Damschen, E and Fernandez-Going, B and Eskelinen, A and Copeland, S}, title = {Plant communities on infertile soils are less sensitive to climate change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {116}, number = {6}, pages = {1017-1022}, pmid = {25452247}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; Water/physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Much evidence suggests that plant communities on infertile soils are relatively insensitive to increased water deficit caused by increasing temperature and/or decreasing precipitation. However, a multi-decadal study of community change in the western USA does not support this conclusion. This paper tests explanations related to macroclimatic differences, overstorey effects on microclimate, variation in soil texture and plant functional traits.<br><br>METHODS: A re-analysis was undertaken of the changes in the multi-decadal study, which concerned forest understorey communities on infertile (serpentine) and fertile soils in an aridifying climate (southern Oregan) from 1949-1951 to 2007-2008. Macroclimatic variables, overstorey cover and soil texture were used as new covariates. As an alternative measure of climate-related change, the community mean value of specific leaf area was used, a functional trait measuring drought tolerance. We investigated whether these revised analyses supported the prediction of lesser sensitivity to climate change in understorey communities on infertile serpentine soils.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Overstorey cover, but not macroclimate or soil texture, was a significant covariate of community change over time. It strongly buffered understorey temperatures, was correlated with less change and averaged >50 % lower on serpentine soils, thereby counteracting the lower climate sensitivity of understorey herbs on these soils. Community mean specific leaf area showed the predicted pattern of less change over time in serpentine than non-serpentine communities.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Based on the current balance of evidence, plant communities on infertile serpentine soils are less sensitive to changes in the climatic water balance than communities on more fertile soils. However, this advantage may in some cases be lessened by their sparser overstorey cover.}, }
@article {pmid25450928, year = {2015}, author = {Henriques, I and Araújo, S and Pereira, A and Menezes-Oliveira, VB and Correia, A and Soares, AM and Scott-Fordsmand, JJ and Amorim, MJ}, title = {Combined effect of temperature and copper pollution on soil bacterial community: climate change and regional variation aspects.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology and environmental safety}, volume = {111}, number = {}, pages = {153-159}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2014.10.010}, pmid = {25450928}, issn = {1090-2414}, mesh = {Bacteria/classification/*drug effects ; *Climate Change ; Copper/*toxicity ; *Soil Microbiology ; Soil Pollutants/*toxicity ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The aim of this study was to assess the combined effects of temperature and copper (Cu) contamination in the structure of soil bacterial community. For this, contaminated or spiked and control soils from two different geographic origins (PT-Portugal and DK-Denmark) were used. The DK soil was from a historically contaminated study field, representing a long-term exposure to Cu while the PT soil was from a clean site and freshly spiked with Cu. Soil bacterial communities were exposed in mesocosms during 84 days to 3 different temperatures based on values typically found in each geographic region and temperature conditions that simulated a warming scenario. Obtained results indicate that Cu stress alters the structure of bacterial community and that this effect is, to some extent, temperature-dependent. Effects on bacterial diversity for both soils were also observed. Differences in the DK and PT communities' response were apparent, with the community from the historically contaminated soil being more resilient to temperature fluctuations. This study presents evidence to support the hypothesis that temperature alters the effect of metals on soils. Further, our results suggest that the definition of soils quality criteria must be based on studies performed under temperatures selected for the specific geographic region. Studies taking into account temperature changes are needed to model and predict risks, this is important to e.g. future adjustments of the maximum permissible levels for soil metal contamination.}, }
@article {pmid25447246, year = {2014}, author = {Bennett, H and Jones, R and Keating, G and Woodward, A and Hales, S and Metcalfe, S}, title = {Health and equity impacts of climate change in Aotearoa-New Zealand, and health gains from climate action.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {127}, number = {1406}, pages = {16-31}, pmid = {25447246}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ; New Zealand ; Risk ; }, abstract = {Human-caused climate change poses an increasingly serious and urgent threat to health and health equity. Under all the climate projections reported in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, New Zealand will experience direct impacts, biologically mediated impacts, and socially mediated impacts on health. These will disproportionately affect populations that already experience disadvantage and poorer health. Without rapid global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (particularly from fossil fuels), the world will breach its carbon budget and may experience high levels of warming (land temperatures on average 4-7 degrees Celsius higher by 2100). This level of climate change would threaten the habitability of some parts of the world because of extreme weather, limits on working outdoors, and severely reduced food production. However, well-planned action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could bring about substantial benefits to health, and help New Zealand tackle its costly burden of health inequity and chronic disease.}, }
@article {pmid25443439, year = {2015}, author = {Aven, T and Renn, O}, title = {An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC reports on climate change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {701-712}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12298}, pmid = {25443439}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Risk ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided.}, }
@article {pmid25443387, year = {2014}, author = {Squalli, J}, title = {Is obesity associated with global warming?.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {128}, number = {12}, pages = {1087-1093}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2014.09.008}, pmid = {25443387}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Obesity/*epidemiology ; Regression Analysis ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Obesity is a national epidemic that imposes direct medical and indirect economic costs on society. Recent scholarly inquiries contend that obesity also contributes to global warming. The paper investigates the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and obesity.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional state-level data for the year 2010.<br><br>METHODS: Multiple regression analysis using least squares with bootstrapped standard errors and quantile regression.<br><br>RESULTS: States with higher rates of obesity are associated with higher CO2 and CH4 emissions (p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05) and marginally associated with higher N2O emissions (p&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.10), net of other factors. Reverting to the obesity rates of the year 2000 across the entire United States could decrease greenhouse gas emissions by about two percent, representing more than 136 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Future studies should establish clear causality between obesity and emissions by using longitudinal data while controlling for other relevant factors. They should also consider identifying means to net out the potential effects of carbon sinks, conversion of CH4 to energy, cross-state diversion, disposal, and transfer of municipal solid waste, and potentially lower energy consumption from increased sedentariness.}, }
@article {pmid25443102, year = {2014}, author = {Goodman, B}, title = {The debate on climate change and health in the context of ecological public health: a necessary corrective to Costello et al.'s 'biggest global health threat', or co-opted apologists for the neoliberal hegemony?.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {128}, number = {12}, pages = {1059-1065}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2014.08.017}, pmid = {25443102}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Dissent and Disputes ; *Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; Global Health ; Humans ; Politics ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {The threat posed to global health by climate change has been widely discussed internationally. The United Kingdom public health community seem to have accepted this as fact and have called for urgent action on climate change, often through state interventionist mitigation strategies and the adoption of a risk discourse. Putting aside the climate change deniers' arguments, there are critics of this position who seem to accept climate change as a fact but argue that the market and/or economic development should address the issue. Their view is that carbon reduction (mitigation) is a distraction, may be costly and is ineffective. They argue that what is required is more economic development and progress even if that means a warmer world. Both positions however accept the fact of growth based capitalism and thus fail to critique neoliberal market driven capitalism or posit an alternative political economy that eschews growth. Ecological public health, however, appears to be a way forward in addressing not only social determinants of health but also the political and ecological determinants. This might allow us to consider not just public health but also planetary health and health threats that arise from growth based capitalism.}, }
@article {pmid25440503, year = {2015}, author = {Keller, VDJ and Lloyd, P and Terry, JA and Williams, RJ}, title = {Impact of climate change and population growth on a risk assessment for endocrine disruption in fish due to steroid estrogens in England and Wales.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {197}, number = {}, pages = {262-268}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2014.11.017}, pmid = {25440503}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Endocrine Disruptors/analysis/*metabolism ; England ; Estradiol/analysis/metabolism ; Estradiol Congeners/analysis/metabolism ; Estrogens/analysis/metabolism ; Estrone/analysis/metabolism ; Ethinyl Estradiol ; Fishes/*metabolism ; Forecasting ; Male ; *Population Growth ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Rivers/chemistry ; Wales ; }, abstract = {In England and Wales, steroid estrogens: estrone, estradiol and ethinylestradiol have previously been identified as the main chemicals causing endocrine disruption in male fish. A national risk assessment is already available for intersex in fish arising from estrogens under current flow conditions. This study presents, to our knowledge, the first set of national catchment-based risk assessments for steroid estrogen under future scenarios. The river flows and temperatures were perturbed using three climate change scenarios (ranging from relatively dry to wet). The effects of demographic changes on estrogen consumption and human population served by sewage treatment works were also included. Compared to the current situation, the results indicated increased future risk:the percentage of high risk category sites, where endocrine disruption is more likely to occur, increased. These increases were mainly caused by changes in human population. This study provides regulators with valuable information to prepare for this potential increased risk.}, }
@article {pmid25438116, year = {2015}, author = {Pei, F and Li, X and Liu, X and Lao, C and Xia, G}, title = {Exploring the response of net primary productivity variations to urban expansion and climate change: a scenario analysis for Guangdong Province in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {150}, number = {}, pages = {92-102}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.11.002}, pmid = {25438116}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Urban land development alters landscapes and carbon cycle, especially net primary productivity (NPP). Despite projections that NPP is often reduced by urbanization, little is known about NPP changes under future urban expansion and climate change conditions. In this paper, terrestrial NPP was calculated by using Biome-BGC model. However, this model does not explicitly address urban lands. Hence, we proposed a method of NPP-fraction to detect future urban NPP, assuming that the ratio of real NPP to potential NPP for urban cells remains constant for decades. Furthermore, NPP dynamics were explored by integrating the Biome-BGC and the cellular automata (CA), a widely used method for modeling urban growth. Consequently, urban expansion, climate change and their associated effects on the NPP were analyzed for the period of 2010-2039 using Guangdong Province in China as a case study. In addition, four scenarios were designed to reflect future conditions, namely baseline, climate change, urban expansion and comprehensive scenarios. Our analyses indicate that vegetation NPP in urban cells may increase (17.63 gC m(-2) year(-1)-23.35 gC m(-2) year(-1)) in the climate change scenario. However, future urban expansion may cause some NPP losses of 241.61 gC m(-2) year(-1), decupling the NPP increase of the climate change factor. Taking into account both climate change and urban expansion, vegetation NPP in urban area may decrease, minimally at a rate of 228.54 gC m(-2) year(-1) to 231.74 gC m(-2) year(-1). Nevertheless, they may account for an overall NPP increase of 0.78 TgC year(-1) to 1.28 TgC year(-1) in the whole province. All these show that the provincial NPP increase from climate change may offset the NPP decrease from urban expansion. Despite these results, it is of great significance to regulate reasonable expansion of urban lands to maintain carbon balance.}, }
@article {pmid25435496, year = {2015}, author = {Cohen, G}, title = {Warning: climate change is dangerous to your health (in case you were not sure).}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {72-73}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2014.10.012}, pmid = {25435496}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; *Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25435216, year = {2015}, author = {Bornman, JF and Barnes, PW and Robinson, SA and Ballaré, CL and Flint, SD and Caldwell, MM}, title = {Solar ultraviolet radiation and ozone depletion-driven climate change: effects on terrestrial ecosystems.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {88-107}, doi = {10.1039/c4pp90034k}, pmid = {25435216}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Ozone/*chemistry/metabolism ; *Ozone Depletion ; Plants/metabolism/radiation effects ; Soil Microbiology ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; Volatile Organic Compounds/chemistry ; }, abstract = {In this assessment we summarise advances in our knowledge of how UV-B radiation (280-315 nm), together with other climate change factors, influence terrestrial organisms and ecosystems. We identify key uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on these systems. We also evaluate the biological consequences of the way in which stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Since the last assessment, several new findings or insights have emerged or been strengthened. These include: (1) the increasing recognition that UV-B radiation has specific regulatory roles in plant growth and development that in turn can have beneficial consequences for plant productivity via effects on plant hardiness, enhanced plant resistance to herbivores and pathogens, and improved quality of agricultural products with subsequent implications for food security; (2) UV-B radiation together with UV-A (315-400 nm) and visible (400-700 nm) radiation are significant drivers of decomposition of plant litter in globally important arid and semi-arid ecosystems, such as grasslands and deserts. This occurs through the process of photodegradation, which has implications for nutrient cycling and carbon storage, although considerable uncertainty exists in quantifying its regional and global biogeochemical significance; (3) UV radiation can contribute to climate change via its stimulation of volatile organic compounds from plants, plant litter and soils, although the magnitude, rates and spatial patterns of these emissions remain highly uncertain at present. UV-induced release of carbon from plant litter and soils may also contribute to global warming; and (4) depletion of ozone in the Southern Hemisphere modifies climate directly via effects on seasonal weather patterns (precipitation and wind) and these in turn have been linked to changes in the growth of plants across the Southern Hemisphere. Such research has broadened our understanding of the linkages that exist between the effects of ozone depletion, UV-B radiation and climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid25434735, year = {2015}, author = {Barrett, B and Charles, JW and Temte, JL}, title = {Climate change, human health, and epidemiological transition.}, journal = {Preventive medicine}, volume = {70}, number = {}, pages = {69-75}, pmid = {25434735}, issn = {1096-0260}, support = {K24 AT006543/AT/NCCIH NIH HHS/United States ; K24AT006543/AT/NCCIH NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Developing Countries ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Ecosystem ; Epidemiology/*trends ; *Global Health ; *Health Transition ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Sanitation ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The health of populations depends on the availability of clean air, water, food, and sanitation, exposure to pathogens, toxins and environmental hazards, and numerous genetic, behavioral and social factors. For many thousands of years, human life expectancy was low, and population growth was slow. The development of technology-based civilizations facilitated what Abdel Omran called "epidemiological transition," with increasing life expectancy and rapid population growth. To a large extent, the spectacular growth of human populations during the past two centuries was made possible by the energy extracted from fossil fuels. We have now learned, however, that greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion are warming the planet's surface, causing changes in oceanic and atmospheric systems, and disrupting weather and hydrological patterns. Climate change poses unprecedented threats to human health by impacts on food and water security, heat waves and droughts, violent storms, infectious disease, and rising sea levels. Whether or not humanity can reduce greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough to slow climate change to a rate that will allow societies to successfully adapt is not yet known. This essay reviews the current state of relevant knowledge, and points in a few directions that those interested in human health may wish to consider.}, }
@article {pmid25430009, year = {2015}, author = {Jiménez, E and Tapiador, FJ and Sáez-Martínez, FJ}, title = {Atmospheric pollutants in a changing environment: key issues in reactivity and monitoring, global warming, and health.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {4789-4792}, pmid = {25430009}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/analysis/toxicity ; Environmental Health ; Environmental Monitoring ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Nanoparticles/analysis/toxicity ; }, }
@article {pmid25428548, year = {2015}, author = {Lin, Y and Wu, W and Ge, Q}, title = {CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {95}, number = {14}, pages = {2838-2849}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.7024}, pmid = {25428548}, issn = {1097-0010}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Agriculture ; *Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide ; China ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Family Characteristics ; Food Supply ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; Plant Development ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25424615, year = {2014}, author = {Ju, J and Wang, Q and Liang, L and Chen, X}, title = {International carbon trading: a game changer for climate change?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {24}, pages = {14069}, doi = {10.1021/es505118x}, pmid = {25424615}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25420020, year = {2014}, author = {Porfirio, LL and Harris, RM and Lefroy, EC and Hugh, S and Gould, SF and Lee, G and Bindoff, NL and Mackey, B}, title = {Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {e113749}, pmid = {25420020}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Butterflies/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/trends ; Cupressaceae/*genetics ; Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Forecasting ; Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.}, }
@article {pmid25418656, year = {2014}, author = {Gonzales, GF and Zevallos, A and Gonzales-Castañeda, C and Nuñez, D and Gastañaga, C and Cabezas, C and Naeher, L and Levy, K and Steenland, K}, title = {[Environmental pollution, climate variability and climate change: a review of health impacts on the Peruvian population].}, journal = {Revista peruana de medicina experimental y salud publica}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {547-556}, pmid = {25418656}, issn = {1726-4642}, support = {R24 TW009545/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; R24 TW009554/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environment ; *Environmental Health ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Peru ; }, abstract = {This article is a review of the pollution of water, air and the effect of climate change on the health of the Peruvian population. A major air pollutant is particulate matter less than 2.5 μ (PM 2.5). In Lima, 2,300 premature deaths annually are attributable to this pollutant. Another problem is household air pollution by using stoves burning biomass fuels, where excessive indoor exposure to PM 2.5 inside the household is responsible for approximately 3,000 annual premature deaths among adults, with another unknown number of deaths among children due to respiratory infections. Water pollution is caused by sewage discharges into rivers, minerals (arsenic) from various sources, and failure of water treatment plants. In Peru, climate change may impact the frequency and severity of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been associated with an increase in cases of diseases such as cholera, malaria and dengue. Climate change increases the temperature and can extend the areas affected by vector-borne diseases, have impact on the availability of water and contamination of the air. In conclusion, Peru is going through a transition of environmental risk factors, where traditional and modern risks coexist and infectious and chronic problems remain, some of which are associated with problems of pollution of water and air.}, }
@article {pmid25414926, year = {2014}, author = {Moghariya, DP and Smardon, RC}, title = {Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {660-677}, doi = {10.1177/0963662512465698}, pmid = {25414926}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Climate Change ; India ; *Rural Population ; }, abstract = {This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.}, }
@article {pmid25413864, year = {2015}, author = {Garzke, J and Ismar, SMH and Sommer, U}, title = {Climate change affects low trophic level marine consumers: warming decreases copepod size and abundance.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {177}, number = {3}, pages = {849-860}, pmid = {25413864}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Copepoda/*anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development ; *Food Chain ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; Zooplankton/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Concern about climate change has re-ignited interest in universal ecological responses to temperature variations: (1) biogeographical shifts, (2) phenology changes, and (3) size shifts. In this study we used copepods as model organisms to study size responses to temperature because of their central role in the pelagic food web and because of the ontogenetic length constancy between molts, which facilitates the definition of size of distinct developmental stages. In order to test the expected temperature-induced shifts towards smaller body size and lower abundances under warming conditions, a mesocosm experiment using plankton from the Baltic Sea at three temperature levels (ambient, ambient +4 °C, ambient -4 °C) was performed in summer 2010. Overall copepod and copepodit abundances, copepod size at all life stages, and adult copepod size in particular, showed significant temperature effects. As expected, zooplankton peak abundance was lower in warm than in ambient treatments. Copepod size-at-immature stage significantly increased in cold treatments, while adult size significantly decreased in warm treatments.}, }
@article {pmid25409871, year = {2015}, author = {Rawal, DS and Kasel, S and Keatley, MR and Nitschke, CR}, title = {Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {59}, number = {9}, pages = {1237-1252}, pmid = {25409871}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Eucalyptus/*growth &amp; development ; *Germination ; Humidity ; Light ; Seasons ; Soil ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Victoria ; Water ; }, abstract = {Germination is considered one of the important phenological stages that are influenced by environmental factors, with timing and abundance determining plant establishment and recruitment. This study investigates the influence of temperature, soil moisture and light on the germination phenology of six Eucalyptus species from two co-occurring groups of three species representing warm-dry and cool-moist sclerophyll forests. Data from germination experiments were used to calibrate the germination module of the mechanistic model TACA-GEM, to evaluate germination phenology under a range of climate change scenarios. With the exception of E. polyanthemos, the optimal niche for all species was characterised by cool-moist stratification, low light, cool temperatures and high soil moisture. Model results indicated that of the warm-dry species, Eucalyptus microcarpa exhibited greater germination and establishment under projected changes of warmer drier conditions than its co-occurring species Eucalyptus polyanthemos and Eucalyptus tricarpa which suggests that E. microcarpa could maintain its current distribution under a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Australia. Among the cool-moist species, Eucalyptus radiata was the only species that established under projected climate change of the 2080s but at such a low probability that its persistence compared to Eucalyptus obliqua and Eucalyptus sieberi cannot be posited. For all cool-moist species, germination did not benefit from the phenological shifts they displayed. This study successfully demonstrated environmental effects on germination phenology and how a shift in climate can influence the timing and success of recruitment.}, }
@article {pmid25405851, year = {2014}, author = {Duarte, JL}, title = {Comment on “Scientists’ views about attribution of global warming”.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {23}, pages = {14057-14058}, doi = {10.1021/es504574v}, pmid = {25405851}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Ecology/*methods ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid25405594, year = {2014}, author = {Verheggen, B and Strengers, B and Vringer, K and Cook, J and van Dorland, R and Peters, J and Visser, H and Meyer, L}, title = {Reply to comment on "Scientists' views about attribution of global warming".}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {23}, pages = {14059-14060}, doi = {10.1021/es505183e}, pmid = {25405594}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Ecology/*methods ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, }
@article {pmid25404680, year = {2014}, author = {Corner, A and Pidgeon, N}, title = {Geoengineering, climate change scepticism and the 'moral hazard' argument: an experimental study of UK public perceptions.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {372}, number = {2031}, pages = {}, pmid = {25404680}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {Many commentators have expressed concerns that researching and/or developing geoengineering technologies may undermine support for existing climate policies-the so-called moral hazard argument. This argument plays a central role in policy debates about geoengineering. However, there has not yet been a systematic investigation of how members of the public view the moral hazard argument, or whether it impacts on people's beliefs about geoengineering and climate change. In this paper, we describe an online experiment with a representative sample of the UK public, in which participants read one of two arguments (either endorsing or rejecting the idea that geoengineering poses a moral hazard). The argument endorsing the idea of geoengineering as a moral hazard was perceived as more convincing overall. However, people with more sceptical views and those who endorsed 'self-enhancing' values were more likely to agree that the prospect of geoengineering would reduce their motivation to make changes in their own behaviour in response to climate change. The findings suggest that geoengineering is likely to pose a moral hazard for some people more than others, and the implications for engaging the public are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid25404290, year = {2014}, author = {Armit, I and Swindles, GT and Becker, K and Plunkett, G and Blaauw, M}, title = {Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {48}, pages = {17045-17049}, pmid = {25404290}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Archaeology/*methods ; Bayes Theorem ; Carbon Radioisotopes ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Humans ; Ireland ; *Population Dynamics ; Radiometric Dating/*methods ; }, abstract = {The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25403380, year = {2015}, author = {Krieger, N}, title = {The real ecological fallacy: epidemiology and global climate change.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and community health}, volume = {69}, number = {8}, pages = {803-804}, doi = {10.1136/jech-2014-205027}, pmid = {25403380}, issn = {1470-2738}, mesh = {Bias ; *Climate Change ; *Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Prompted by my participation in the People's Climate March held in New York City on 21 September 2014, as part of the 'Harvard Divest' contingent, in this brief essay I reflect on the late 20th century development of--and debates over--the necessity of ecological thinking in epidemiology, and also the still limited engagement of our field with work on the health impact of global climate change. Revisiting critiques about the damaging influence of methodological individualism on our field, I extend critique of the still influential notion of 'ecological fallacy,' including its wilful disregard for ecology itself as being pertinent to people's ways of living--and dying. Indeed, the real 'ecological fallacy' is to think epidemiologists or others could ever understand the people's health except in societal and ecological, and hence historical, context. I conclude by urging all of us, as members of the broader scientific community, whether or not we directly study the health impacts of the planetary emergency of global climate change, to step up by joining the call for universities to divest from fossil fuels.}, }
@article {pmid25401492, year = {2014}, author = {Pan, S and Tian, H and Dangal, SR and Zhang, C and Yang, J and Tao, B and Ouyang, Z and Wang, X and Lu, C and Ren, W and Banger, K and Yang, Q and Zhang, B and Li, X}, title = {Complex spatiotemporal responses of global terrestrial primary production to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {e112810}, pmid = {25401492}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Atmosphere ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; History, 21st Century ; *Models, Theoretical ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8-56.4) PgC yr(-1) as a result of multiple factors during 2000-2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010-2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5 °C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5 °C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2 °C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5 °C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%-13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing atmospheric CO2.}, }
@article {pmid25399967, year = {2014}, author = {O'Dea, SA and Gibbs, SJ and Bown, PR and Young, JR and Poulton, AJ and Newsam, C and Wilson, PA}, title = {Coccolithophore calcification response to past ocean acidification and climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {5363}, pmid = {25399967}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Calcification, Physiologic ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Fossils ; Haptophyta/*metabolism ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Oceans and Seas ; Plankton/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are forcing rapid ocean chemistry changes and causing ocean acidification (OA), which is of particular significance for calcifying organisms, including planktonic coccolithophores. Detailed analysis of coccolithophore skeletons enables comparison of calcite production in modern and fossil cells in order to investigate biomineralization response of ancient coccolithophores to climate change. Here we show that the two dominant coccolithophore taxa across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) OA global warming event (~56 million years ago) exhibited morphological response to environmental change and both showed reduced calcification rates. However, only Coccolithus pelagicus exhibits a transient thinning of coccoliths, immediately before the PETM, that may have been OA-induced. Changing coccolith thickness may affect calcite production more significantly in the dominant modern species Emiliania huxleyi, but, overall, these PETM records indicate that the environmental factors that govern taxonomic composition and growth rate will most strongly influence coccolithophore calcification response to anthropogenic change.}, }
@article {pmid25395536, year = {2014}, author = {Romps, DM and Seeley, JT and Vollaro, D and Molinari, J}, title = {Climate change. Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {346}, number = {6211}, pages = {851-854}, doi = {10.1126/science.1259100}, pmid = {25395536}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Convection ; *Global Warming ; *Lightning ; United States ; }, abstract = {Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%. When this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century.}, }
@article {pmid25393937, year = {2015}, author = {González-Alcaraz, MN and Tsitsiou, E and Wieldraaijer, R and Verweij, RA and van Gestel, CA}, title = {Effects of climate change on the toxicity of soils polluted by metal mine wastes to Enchytraeus crypticus.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {34}, number = {2}, pages = {346-354}, doi = {10.1002/etc.2807}, pmid = {25393937}, issn = {1552-8618}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution/*analysis ; Geography ; Metals/*toxicity ; *Mining ; Oligochaeta/*drug effects ; Reproduction/drug effects ; Soil/chemistry ; Soil Pollutants/*toxicity ; Spain ; *Toxicity Tests ; Waste Products/analysis ; }, abstract = {The present study aimed to assess the effects of climate change on the toxicity of metal-polluted soils. Bioassays with Enchytraeus crypticus were performed in soils polluted by mine wastes (mine tailing, forest, and watercourse) and under different combinations of temperature (20 °C and 25 °C) and soil moisture content (50% and 30% of the soil water-holding capacity). Survival and reproduction were set as endpoints. No effect was observed on survival (average survival ≥ 80%). Reproduction was the most sensitive endpoint, and it was reduced between 65% and 98% compared with control after exposure to watercourse soil (lower pH, higher salinity, and higher available metal(loid) concentrations). In this soil, effective concentrations at 50% and 10% (EC50 and EC10) significantly decreased with decreasing soil moisture content. In general, the worst-case scenario was found in the driest soil, but the toxicity under a climate change scenario differed among soil types in relation to soil properties (e.g., pH, salinity) and available metal(loid) concentrations.}, }
@article {pmid25393738, year = {2014}, author = {Jiang, Y and Zhang, W and Wang, M and Kang, M and Dong, M}, title = {Radial growth of two dominant montane conifer tree species in response to climate change in North-Central China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {e112537}, pmid = {25393738}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Altitude ; China ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Tracheophyta/*growth &amp; development ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {North-Central China is a region in which the air temperature has clearly increased for several decades. Picea meyeri and Larix principis-rupprechtii are the most dominant co-occurring tree species within the cold coniferous forest belt ranging vertically from 1800 m to 2800 m a.s.l. in this region. Based on a tree-ring analysis of 292 increment cores sampled from 146 trees at different elevations, this study aimed to examine if the radial growth of the two species in response to climate is similar, whether the responses are consistent along altitudinal gradients and which species might be favored in the future driven by the changing climate. The results indicated the following: (1) The two species grew in different rhythms at low and high elevation respectively; (2) Both species displayed inconsistent relationships between radial growth and climate data along altitudinal gradients. The correlation between radial growth and the monthly mean temperature in the spring or summer changed from negative at low elevation into positive at high elevation, whereas those between the radial growth and the total monthly precipitation displayed a change from positive into negative along the elevation gradient. These indicate the different influences of the horizontal climate and vertical mountainous climate on the radial growth of the two species; (3) The species-dependent different response to climate in radial growth appeared mainly in autumn of the previous year. The radial growth of L. principis-rupprechtii displayed negative responses both to temperature and to precipitation in the previous September, October or November, which was not observed in the radial growth of P. meyeri. (4) The radial growth of both species will tend to be increased at high elevation and limited at low elevation, and L. principis-rupprechtii might be more favored in the future, if the temperature keeps rising.}, }
@article {pmid25388673, year = {2015}, author = {Scheiter, S and Higgins, SI and Beringer, J and Hutley, LB}, title = {Climate change and long-term fire management impacts on Australian savannas.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {205}, number = {3}, pages = {1211-1226}, doi = {10.1111/nph.13130}, pmid = {25388673}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Africa ; Australia ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Fires ; *Grassland ; Models, Theoretical ; Plant Transpiration/physiology ; Rivers ; Time Factors ; Trees/anatomy &amp; histology ; }, abstract = {Tropical savannas cover a large proportion of the Earth's land surface and many people are dependent on the ecosystem services that savannas supply. Their sustainable management is crucial. Owing to the complexity of savanna vegetation dynamics, climate change and land use impacts on savannas are highly uncertain. We used a dynamic vegetation model, the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model (aDGVM), to project how climate change and fire management might influence future vegetation in northern Australian savannas. Under future climate conditions, vegetation can store more carbon than under ambient conditions. Changes in rainfall seasonality influence future carbon storage but do not turn vegetation into a carbon source, suggesting that CO2 fertilization is the main driver of vegetation change. The application of prescribed fires with varying return intervals and burning season influences vegetation and fire impacts. Carbon sequestration is maximized with early dry season fires and long fire return intervals, while grass productivity is maximized with late dry season fires and intermediate fire return intervals. The study has implications for management policy across Australian savannas because it identifies how fire management strategies may influence grazing yield, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. This knowledge is crucial to maintaining important ecosystem services of Australian savannas.}, }
@article {pmid25388662, year = {2016}, author = {McIver, LJ and Chan, VS and Bowen, KJ and Iddings, SN and Hero, K and Raingsey, PP}, title = {Review of Climate Change and Water-Related Diseases in Cambodia and Findings From Stakeholder Knowledge Assessments.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {28}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {49S-58S}, doi = {10.1177/1010539514558059}, pmid = {25388662}, issn = {1941-2479}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Cambodia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Risk ; Waterborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {This project aims to increase the resilience of Cambodian communities to the health risks posed by climate change-related impacts on water-related diseases. There are a number of water-related diseases that are present in Cambodia and are likely to be susceptible to climate change. These include diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever, leptospirosis, melioidosis, viral hepatitis, and schistosomiasis. Certain subsectors of Cambodia's population may be more vulnerable than others with respect to climate change impacts on water and health, including agricultural workers and residents of flood-and drought-prone areas. The current level of understanding on the part of health professionals and other key stakeholders in Cambodia regarding the risks posed by climate change on water-sensitive diseases is relatively low. Strategies by which this understanding might be strengthened are suggested.}, }
@article {pmid25388638, year = {2015}, author = {Andrady, AL and Torikai, A and Redhwi, HH and Pandey, KK and Gies, P}, title = {Consequences of stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change on the use of materials.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {170-184}, doi = {10.1039/c4pp90038c}, pmid = {25388638}, issn = {1474-9092}, abstract = {Materials used in the exterior of buildings and in construction are routinely exposed to solar UV radiation. Especially in the case of wood and plastic building materials, the service life is determined by their weather-induced deterioration. Any further increase in ground-level solar UV radiation, UV-B radiation in particular, will therefore reduce the outdoor service life of these products. Any increase in ambient temperature due to climate change will also have the same effect. However, the existing light-stabilizer technologies are likely to be able to mitigate the additional damaging effects due to increased solar UV radiation and maintain the outdoor lifetimes of these materials at the present levels. These mitigation choices invariably increase the lifetime cost of these products. A reliable estimate of what this additional cost might be for different products is not available at the present time. Personal exposure to UV radiation is reduced both by clothing fabrics and glass windows used in buildings and automobiles. This assessment describes how the recent technical advances in degradation and stabilization techniques impact the lifetimes of plastics and wood products routinely exposed to solar UV radiation and the protection to humans offered by materials against solar UV radiation.}, }
@article {pmid25385668, year = {2015}, author = {Altieri, AH and Gedan, KB}, title = {Climate change and dead zones.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {1395-1406}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12754}, pmid = {25385668}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Anaerobiosis ; *Climate Change ; *Estuaries ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Temperature ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones.}, }
@article {pmid25385628, year = {2014}, author = {Donohoe, A and Armour, KC and Pendergrass, AG and Battisti, DS}, title = {Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {47}, pages = {16700-16705}, pmid = {25385628}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR.}, }
@article {pmid25384459, year = {2015}, author = {Estiarte, M and Peñuelas, J}, title = {Alteration of the phenology of leaf senescence and fall in winter deciduous species by climate change: effects on nutrient proficiency.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {1005-1017}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12804}, pmid = {25384459}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Plant Leaves/*physiology ; Seasons ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Leaf senescence in winter deciduous species signals the transition from the active to the dormant stage. The purpose of leaf senescence is the recovery of nutrients before the leaves fall. Photoperiod and temperature are the main cues controlling leaf senescence in winter deciduous species, with water stress imposing an additional influence. Photoperiod exerts a strict control on leaf senescence at latitudes where winters are severe and temperature gains importance in the regulation as winters become less severe. On average, climatic warming will delay and drought will advance leaf senescence, but at varying degrees depending on the species. Warming and drought thus have opposite effects on the phenology of leaf senescence, and the impact of climate change will therefore depend on the relative importance of each factor in specific regions. Warming is not expected to have a strong impact on nutrient proficiency although a slower speed of leaf senescence induced by warming could facilitate a more efficient nutrient resorption. Nutrient resorption is less efficient when the leaves senesce prematurely as a consequence of water stress. The overall effects of climate change on nutrient resorption will depend on the contrasting effects of warming and drought. Changes in nutrient resorption and proficiency will impact production in the following year, at least in early spring, because the construction of new foliage relies almost exclusively on nutrients resorbed from foliage during the preceding leaf fall. Changes in the phenology of leaf senescence will thus impact carbon uptake, but also ecosystem nutrient cycling, especially if the changes are consequence of water stress.}, }
@article {pmid25382269, year = {2015}, author = {Coelho, FJ and Cleary, DF and Rocha, RJ and Calado, R and Castanheira, JM and Rocha, SM and Silva, AM and Simões, MM and Oliveira, V and Lillebø, AI and Almeida, A and Cunha, &#xc2; and Lopes, I and Ribeiro, R and Moreira-Santos, M and Marques, CR and Costa, R and Pereira, R and Gomes, NC}, title = {Unraveling the interactive effects of climate change and oil contamination on laboratory-simulated estuarine benthic communities.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {5}, pages = {1871-1886}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12801}, pmid = {25382269}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Base Sequence ; *Climate Change ; DNA Primers/genetics ; Deltaproteobacteria/metabolism/radiation effects ; *Estuaries ; Geologic Sediments/*microbiology ; Hydrocarbons/analysis ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Microbiota/drug effects/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Petroleum Pollution/*adverse effects ; Portugal ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {There is growing concern that modifications to the global environment such as ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation may interact with anthropogenic pollutants to adversely affect the future marine environment. Despite this, little is known about the nature of the potential risks posed by such interactions. Here, we performed a multifactorial microcosm experiment to assess the impact of ocean acidification, ultraviolet B (UV-B) radiation and oil hydrocarbon contamination on sediment chemistry, the microbial community (composition and function) and biochemical marker response of selected indicator species. We found that increased ocean acidification and oil contamination in the absence of UV-B will significantly alter bacterial composition by, among other things, greatly reducing the relative abundance of Desulfobacterales, known to be important oil hydrocarbon degraders. Along with changes in bacterial composition, we identified concomitant shifts in the composition of oil hydrocarbons in the sediment and an increase in oxidative stress effects on our indicator species. Interestingly, our study identifies UV-B as a critical component in the interaction between these factors, as its presence alleviates harmful effects caused by the combination of reduced pH and oil pollution. The model system used here shows that the interactive effect of reduced pH and oil contamination can adversely affect the structure and functioning of sediment benthic communities, with the potential to exacerbate the toxicity of oil hydrocarbons in marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid25381259, year = {2014}, author = {Duarte, B and Santos, D and Silva, H and Marques, JC and Caçador, I and Sleimi, N}, title = {Light-dark O2 dynamics in submerged leaves of C3 and C4 halophytes under increased dissolved CO2: clues for saltmarsh response to climate change.}, journal = {AoB PLANTS}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {25381259}, issn = {2041-2851}, abstract = {Waterlogging and submergence are the major constraints to which wetland plants are subjected, with inevitable impacts on their physiology and productivity. Global warming and climate change, as driving forces of sea level rise, tend to increase such submersion periods and also modify the carbonate chemistry of the water column due to the increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. In the present work, the underwater O2 fluxes in the leaves of two abundant Mediterranean halophytes were evaluated at different levels of dissolved CO2. Photosynthetic enhancement due to increased dissolved CO2 was confirmed for both Halimione portulacoides and Spartina maritima, probably due to high tissue porosity, formation of leaf gas films and reduction of the oxygenase activity of Rubisco. Enhancement of the photosynthetic rates in H. portulacoides and S. maritima was concomitant with an increase in energy trapping and transfer, mostly due to enhancement of the carboxylation reaction of Rubisco, leading to a reduction of the energy costs for carbon fixation. Transposing these findings to the ecosystem, and assuming increased dissolved CO2 concentration scenarios, the halophyte community displays a new ecosystem function, increasing the water column oxygenation and thus reinforcing their role as principal primary producers of the estuarine system.}, }
@article {pmid25380348, year = {2015}, author = {Erickson, DJ and Sulzberger, B and Zepp, RG and Austin, AT}, title = {Effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, solar UV radiation, and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {127-148}, doi = {10.1039/c4pp90036g}, pmid = {25380348}, issn = {1474-9092}, abstract = {Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment include: (i) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of above ground litter due to aridification; (ii) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of photoreactive dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic ecosystems due to changes in continental runoff and ice melting; (iii) reduced efficiency of the biological pump due to UV-induced bleaching of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in stratified aquatic ecosystems, where CDOM protects phytoplankton from the damaging solar UV-B radiation. Mineralisation of organic matter results in the production and release of CO2, whereas the biological pump is the main biological process for CO2 removal by aquatic ecosystems. This paper also assesses the interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on the biogeochemical cycling of aerosols and trace gases other than CO2, as well as of chemical and biological contaminants. Interacting effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycles are particularly pronounced at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.}, }
@article {pmid25380284, year = {2015}, author = {Bais, AF and McKenzie, RL and Bernhard, G and Aucamp, PJ and Ilyas, M and Madronich, S and Tourpali, K}, title = {Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {19-52}, doi = {10.1039/c4pp90032d}, pmid = {25380284}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Aerosols/chemistry ; Climate Change ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Ozone/*chemistry/metabolism ; *Ozone Depletion/history ; Public Health ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {We assess the importance of factors that determine the intensity of UV radiation at the Earth's surface. Among these, atmospheric ozone, which absorbs UV radiation, is of considerable importance, but other constituents of the atmosphere, as well as certain consequences of climate change, can also be major influences. Further, we assess the variations of UV radiation observed in the past and present, and provide projections for the future. Of particular interest are methods to measure or estimate UV radiation at the Earth's surface. These are needed for scientific understanding and, when they are sufficiently sensitive, they can serve as monitors of the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. Also assessed are several aspects of UV radiation related to biological effects and health. The implications for ozone and UV radiation from two types of geoengineering methods that have been proposed to combat climate change are also discussed. In addition to ozone effects, the UV changes in the last two decades, derived from measurements, have been influenced by changes in aerosols, clouds, surface reflectivity, and, possibly, by solar activity. The positive trends of UV radiation observed after the mid-1990s over northern mid-latitudes are mainly due to decreases in clouds and aerosols. Despite some indications from measurements at a few stations, no statistically significant decreases in UV-B radiation attributable to the beginning of the ozone recovery have yet been detected. Projections for erythemal irradiance (UVery) suggest the following changes by the end of the 21(st) century (2090-2100) relative to the present time (2010-2020): (1) Ozone recovery (due to decreasing ozone-depleting substances and increasing greenhouse gases) would cause decreases in UVery, which will be highest (up to 40%) over Antarctica. Decreases would be small (less than 10%) outside the southern Polar Regions. A possible decline of solar activity during the 21(st) century might affect UV-B radiation at the surface indirectly through changes induced in stratospheric ozone. (2) The projected changes in cloud cover would lead to relatively small effects (less than 3%), except at northern high latitudes where increases in cloud cover could lead to decreases in UVery by up to 7%. (3) Reductions in reflectivity due to the melting of sea-ice in the Arctic would lead to decreases of UVery by up to 10%, while at the margins of the Antarctic the decreases would be smaller (2-3%). The melting of the sea-ice would expose the ocean surface formerly covered by ice to UV-B radiation up to 10 times stronger than before. (4) The expected improvement of air-quality and reductions of aerosols over the most populated areas of the northern hemisphere may result in 10-20% increases in UVery, except over China where even larger increases are projected. The projected aerosol effect for the southern hemisphere is generally very small. Aerosols are possibly the most important factor for future UV levels over heavily populated areas, but their projected effects are the most uncertain.}, }
@article {pmid25378734, year = {2014}, author = {Woodward, A}, title = {Climate change and health: recent progress.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {92}, number = {11}, pages = {774}, pmid = {25378734}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid25371404, year = {2014}, author = {Limb, M}, title = {Leaders must act now to prevent irreversible effects of climate change, say scientists.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {349}, number = {}, pages = {g6654}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g6654}, pmid = {25371404}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Environmental Policy ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; *Research ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid25371219, year = {2014}, author = {Thornton, SR}, title = {Climate change: primary care in Bristol is taking the lead in going green.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {349}, number = {}, pages = {g6299}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g6299}, pmid = {25371219}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; England ; Humans ; Primary Health Care/*organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid25371194, year = {2015}, author = {Catano, CP and Romañach, SS and Beerens, JM and Pearlstine, LG and Brandt, LA and Hart, KM and Mazzotti, FJ and Trexler, JC}, title = {Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {807-823}, pmid = {25371194}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; *Animals, Wild ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Florida ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Temperature ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.}, }
@article {pmid25370332, year = {2015}, author = {Findling, JW}, title = {Evolution, global warming, smart phones, and late-night salivary cortisol.}, journal = {Endocrine practice : official journal of the American College of Endocrinology and the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {205-207}, doi = {10.4158/EP14451.CO}, pmid = {25370332}, issn = {1530-891X}, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; Hydrocortisone/*analysis ; Male ; Pituitary ACTH Hypersecretion/*diagnosis ; Saliva/*chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid25369312, year = {2015}, author = {Gutt, J and Bertler, N and Bracegirdle, TJ and Buschmann, A and Comiso, J and Hosie, G and Isla, E and Schloss, IR and Smith, CR and Tournadre, J and Xavier, JC}, title = {The Southern Ocean ecosystem under multiple climate change stresses--an integrated circumpolar assessment.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {1434-1453}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12794}, pmid = {25369312}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Ice Cover ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {A quantitative assessment of observed and projected environmental changes in the Southern Ocean (SO) with a potential impact on the marine ecosystem shows: (i) large proportions of the SO are and will be affected by one or more climate change processes; areas projected to be affected in the future are larger than areas that are already under environmental stress, (ii) areas affected by changes in sea-ice in the past and likely in the future are much larger than areas affected by ocean warming. The smallest areas (<1% area of the SO) are affected by glacier retreat and warming in the deeper euphotic layer. In the future, decrease in the sea-ice is expected to be widespread. Changes in iceberg impact resulting from further collapse of ice-shelves can potentially affect large parts of shelf and ephemerally in the off-shore regions. However, aragonite undersaturation (acidification) might become one of the biggest problems for the Antarctic marine ecosystem by affecting almost the entire SO. Direct and indirect impacts of various environmental changes to the three major habitats, sea-ice, pelagic and benthos and their biota are complex. The areas affected by environmental stressors range from 33% of the SO for a single stressor, 11% for two and 2% for three, to <1% for four and five overlapping factors. In the future, areas expected to be affected by 2 and 3 overlapping factors are equally large, including potential iceberg changes, and together cover almost 86% of the SO ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid25367429, year = {2014}, author = {Dickinson, MG and Orme, CD and Suttle, KB and Mace, GM}, title = {Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {6898}, pmid = {25367429}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Endangered Species ; *Extinction, Biological ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.}, }
@article {pmid25366937, year = {2015}, author = {Borland, AM and Wullschleger, SD and Weston, DJ and Hartwell, J and Tuskan, GA and Yang, X and Cushman, JC}, title = {Climate-resilient agroforestry: physiological responses to climate change and engineering of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) as a mitigation strategy.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {38}, number = {9}, pages = {1833-1849}, doi = {10.1111/pce.12479}, pmid = {25366937}, issn = {1365-3040}, support = {BB/F009313/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Agriculture/methods/trends ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Forestry/*methods ; Genetic Engineering/methods ; Plant Breeding/*methods ; Populus ; Salix ; Trees/genetics/*metabolism/physiology ; }, abstract = {Global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour-pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. One approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAM members of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. The introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid25366516, year = {2014}, author = {}, title = {Editorial: EcoHealth2014 call to action on climate change.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {456-458}, doi = {10.1007/s10393-014-0985-0}, pmid = {25366516}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid25366040, year = {2015}, author = {Tomson, C and Connor, A}, title = {Outlook: Implications of climate change for nephrology.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Nephrology}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {8-9}, pmid = {25366040}, issn = {1759-507X}, mesh = {Acute Kidney Injury/epidemiology/etiology ; Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; Dehydration/epidemiology ; Developed Countries/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Developing Countries/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Dysentery/complications/epidemiology ; Floods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Health Care Sector ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Nephrology/*trends ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/epidemiology ; Urolithiasis/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid25365425, year = {2014}, author = {Wang, W and Tang, X and Zhu, Q and Pan, K and Hu, Q and He, M and Li, J}, title = {Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {e111587}, pmid = {25365425}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.}, }
@article {pmid25360582, year = {2014}, author = {Wouters, B and Bonin, JA and Chambers, DP and Riva, RE and Sasgen, I and Wahr, J}, title = {GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change.}, journal = {Reports on progress in physics. Physical Society (Great Britain)}, volume = {77}, number = {11}, pages = {116801}, doi = {10.1088/0034-4885/77/11/116801}, pmid = {25360582}, issn = {1361-6633}, abstract = {Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data-provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)-can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.}, }
@article {pmid25360273, year = {2014}, author = {Lu, P and Parker, WH and Cherry, M and Colombo, S and Parker, WC and Man, R and Roubal, N}, title = {Survival and growth patterns of white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) rangewide provenances and their implications for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {12}, pages = {2360-2374}, pmid = {25360273}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Intraspecific assisted migration (ISAM) through seed transfer during artificial forest regeneration has been suggested as an adaptation strategy to enhance forest resilience and productivity under future climate. In this study, we assessed the risks and benefits of ISAM in white spruce based on long-term and multilocation, rangewide provenance test data. Our results indicate that the adaptive capacity and growth potential of white spruce varied considerably among 245 range-wide provenances sampled across North America; however, the results revealed that local populations could be outperformed by nonlocal ones. Provenances originating from south-central Ontario and southwestern Québec, Canada, close to the southern edge of the species' natural distribution, demonstrated superior growth in more northerly environments compared with local populations and performed much better than populations from western Canada and Alaska, United States. During the 19-28 years between planting and measurement, the southern provenances have not been more susceptible to freezing damage compared with local populations, indicating they have the potential to be used now for the reforestation of more northerly planting sites; based on changing temperature, these seed sources potentially could maintain or increase white spruce productivity at or above historical levels at northern sites. A universal response function (URF), which uses climatic variables to predict provenance performance across field trials, indicated a relatively weak relationship between provenance performance and the climate at provenance origin. Consequently, the URF from this study did not provide information useful to ISAM. The ecological and economic importance of conserving white spruce genetic resources in south-central Ontario and southwestern Québec for use in ISAM is discussed.}, }
@article {pmid25356982, year = {2014}, author = {Westhoff, JT and Paukert, CP}, title = {Climate change simulations predict altered biotic response in a thermally heterogeneous stream system.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {e111438}, pmid = {25356982}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biota ; *Climate Change ; *Computer Simulation ; Geography ; Missouri ; Models, Theoretical ; Regression Analysis ; *Rivers ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to increase water temperatures in many lotic systems, but little is known about how changes in air temperature affect lotic systems heavily influenced by groundwater. Our objectives were to document spatial variation in temperature for spring-fed Ozark streams in Southern Missouri USA, create a spatially explicit model of mean daily water temperature, and use downscaled climate models to predict the number of days meeting suitable stream temperature for three aquatic species of concern to conservation and management. Longitudinal temperature transects and stationary temperature loggers were used in the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers during 2012 to determine spatial and temporal variability of water temperature. Groundwater spring influence affected river water temperatures in both winter and summer, but springs that contributed less than 5% of the main stem discharge did not affect river temperatures beyond a few hundred meters downstream. A multiple regression model using variables related to season, mean daily air temperature, and a spatial influence factor (metric to account for groundwater influence) was a strong predictor of mean daily water temperature (r2 = 0.98; RMSE = 0.82). Data from two downscaled climate simulations under the A2 emissions scenario were used to predict daily water temperatures for time steps of 1995, 2040, 2060, and 2080. By 2080, peak numbers of optimal growth temperature days for smallmouth bass are expected to shift to areas with more spring influence, largemouth bass are expected to experience more optimal growth days (21-317% increase) regardless of spring influence, and Ozark hellbenders may experience a reduction in the number of optimal growth days in areas with the highest spring influence. Our results provide a framework for assessing fine-scale (10 s m) thermal heterogeneity and predict shifts in thermal conditions at the watershed and reach scale.}, }
@article {pmid25354713, year = {2015}, author = {Gimeno, TE and Escudero, A and Valladares, F}, title = {Different intra- and interspecific facilitation mechanisms between two Mediterranean trees under a climate change scenario.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {177}, number = {1}, pages = {159-169}, pmid = {25354713}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; *Herbivory ; *Juniperus ; Mediterranean Region ; Phenotype ; Probability ; *Quercus ; Rain ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; *Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; Trees ; Water ; }, abstract = {In harsh environments facilitation alleviates biotic and abiotic constraints on tree recruitment. Under ongoing drier climate change, we expect facilitation to increase as a driver of coexistence. However, this might not hold under extreme abiotic stress and when the outcome depends on the interaction with other drivers such as altered herbivore pressure due to land use change. We performed a field water-manipulation experiment to quantify the importance of facilitation in two coexisting Mediterranean trees (dominant Juniperus thurifera and coexisting Quercus ilex subsp. ballota) under a climate change scenario. Shifts in canopy dominance favouring Q. ilex could be based on the extension of heterospecific facilitation to the detriment of conspecific alleviation. We found that saplings of both species transplanted under the canopy of nurse trees had greater survival probability, growth and photochemical efficiency. Intra- and interspecific facilitation mechanisms differed: alleviation of abiotic stress benefited both species during summer and J. thurifera during winter, whereas browsing protection was relevant only for Q. ilex. Facilitation was greater under the dry treatment only for Q. ilex, which partially agreed with the predictions of the stress gradient hypothesis. We conclude that present rainfall availability limits neither J. thurifera nor Q. ilex establishment. Nevertheless, under current global change scenarios, imposing increasing abiotic stress together with altered herbivore browsing, nurse trees could differentially facilitate the establishment of Q. ilex due to species-specific traits, i.e. palatability; drought, heat and cold tolerance, underlying species differences in the facilitation mechanisms and eventually triggering a change from pure juniper woodlands to mixed formations.}, }
@article {pmid25354036, year = {2015}, author = {Savi, T and Bertuzzi, S and Branca, S and Tretiach, M and Nardini, A}, title = {Drought-induced xylem cavitation and hydraulic deterioration: risk factors for urban trees under climate change?.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {205}, number = {3}, pages = {1106-1116}, doi = {10.1111/nph.13112}, pmid = {25354036}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Chlorophyll/metabolism ; *Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Fluorescence ; Gases/metabolism ; Italy ; Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Plant Stems/physiology ; Quercus/*physiology ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Soil ; Steam ; Trees/*physiology ; Water/*physiology ; Wood ; Xylem/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Urban trees help towns to cope with climate warming by cooling both air and surfaces. The challenges imposed by the urban environment, with special reference to low water availability due to the presence of extensive pavements, result in high rates of mortality of street trees, that can be increased by climatic extremes. We investigated the water relations and xylem hydraulic safety/efficiency of Quercus ilex trees growing at urban sites with different percentages of surrounding impervious pavements. Seasonal changes of plant water potential and gas exchange, vulnerability to cavitation and embolism level, and morpho-anatomical traits were measured. We found patterns of increasing water stress and vulnerability to drought at increasing percentages of impervious pavement cover, with a consequent reduction in gas exchange rates, decreased safety margins toward embolism development, and increased vulnerability to cavitation, suggesting the occurrence of stress-induced hydraulic deterioration. The amount of impermeable surface and chronic exposure to water stress influence the site-specific risk of drought-induced dieback of urban trees under extreme drought. Besides providing directions for management of green spaces in towns, our data suggest that xylem hydraulics is key to a full understanding of the responses of urban trees to global change.}, }
@article {pmid25353049, year = {2014}, author = {}, title = {Midwives and impact of climate change.}, journal = {Midwifery}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {1046}, pmid = {25353049}, issn = {1532-3099}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Humans ; *Midwifery ; Pregnancy ; }, }
@article {pmid25351830, year = {2015}, author = {Brouns, K and Eikelboom, T and Jansen, PC and Janssen, R and Kwakernaak, C and van den Akker, JJ and Verhoeven, JT}, title = {Spatial analysis of soil subsidence in peat meadow areas in Friesland in relation to land and water management, climate change, and adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {360-372}, pmid = {25351830}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Grassland ; Netherlands ; Soil/*chemistry ; Spatial Analysis ; Water/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Dutch peatlands have been subsiding due to peat decomposition, shrinkage and compression, since their reclamation in the 11th century. Currently, subsidence amounts to 1-2 cm/year. Water management in these areas is complex and costly, greenhouse gases are being emitted, and surface water quality is relatively poor. Regional and local authorities and landowners responsible for peatland management have recognized these problems. In addition, the Netherlands Royal Meteorological Institute predicts higher temperatures and drier summers, which both are expected to enhance peat decomposition. Stakeholder workshops have been organized in three case study areas in the province of Friesland to exchange knowledge on subsidence and explore future subsidence rates and the effects of land use and management changes on subsidence rates. Subsidence rates were up to 3 cm/year in deeply drained parcels and increased when we included climate change in the modeling exercises. This means that the relatively thin peat layers in this province (ca 1 m) would shrink or even disappear by the end of the century when current practices continue. Adaptation measures were explored, such as extensive dairy farming and the production of new crops in wetter conditions, but little experience has been gained on best practices. The workshops have resulted in useful exchange of ideas on possible measures and their consequences for land use and water management in the three case study areas. The province and the regional water board will use the results to develop land use and water management policies for the next decades.}, }
@article {pmid25349621, year = {2014}, author = {Houghton, A and English, P}, title = {An approach to developing local climate change environmental public health indicators, vulnerability assessments, and projections of future impacts.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2014}, number = {}, pages = {132057}, pmid = {25349621}, issn = {1687-9813}, support = {5U38HM000414-05/HM/NCHM CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Health Policy ; Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Public Health/*trends ; Risk Assessment/*standards ; United States ; }, abstract = {Environmental public health indicators (EPHIs) are used by local, state, and federal health agencies to track the status of environmental hazards; exposure to those hazards; health effects of exposure; and public health interventions designed to reduce or prevent the hazard, exposure, or resulting health effect. Climate and health EPHIs have been developed at the state, federal, and international levels. However, they are also needed at the local level to track variations in community vulnerability and to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions designed to enhance community resilience. This review draws on a guidance document developed by the U.S. Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists' State Environmental Health Indicators Collaborative climate change working group to present a three-tiered approach to develop local climate change EPHIs. Local climate change EPHIs can assist local health departments (LHDs) in implementing key steps of the 10 essential public health services and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Building Resilience Against Climate Effects framework. They also allow LHDs to incorporate climate-related trends into the larger health department planning process and can be used to perform vulnerability assessments which can be leveraged to ensure that interventions designed to address climate change do not exacerbate existing health disparities.}, }
@article {pmid25345034, year = {2014}, author = {Qiu, Y and Gao, LS and Zhang, X and Guo, J and Ma, ZY}, title = {[Effect of climate change on net primary productivity of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) at different successional stages of broad-leaved Korean pine forest].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {7}, pages = {1870-1878}, pmid = {25345034}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Betula ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Pinus/*growth &amp; development ; Populus ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Tracheophyta ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Pinus koraiensis in broad-leaved Korean pine forests of Changbai Mountain at different successional stages (secondary poplar-birch forest, secondary coniferous and broad-leaved forest and the primitive Korean pine forest) were selected in this paper as the research objects. In this research, the annual growth of net primary productivity (NPP) (1921-2006) of P. koraiensis was obtained by combining the tree-ring chronology and relative growth formulae, the correlation between NPP of P. koraiensis and climatic factors was developed, and the annual growth of NPP of P. koraiensis at different successional stages in relation to climatic variation within different climate periods were analyzed. The results showed that, in the research period, the correlations between climatic factors and NPP of P. koraiensis at different successional stages were different. With increasing the temperature, the correlations between NPP of P. koraiensis in the secondary poplar-birch forest and the minimum temperatures of previous and current growing seasons changed from being significantly negative to being significantly positive. The positive correlation between NPP of P. koraiensis in the secondary coniferous and broad-leaved forest and the minimum temperature in current spring changed into significantly positive correlation between NPP of P. koraiensis and the temperatures in previous and current growing seasons. The climatic factors had a stronger hysteresis effect on NPP of P. koraiensis in the secondary coniferous and broad-leaved forest, but NPP of P. koraiensis in the primitive Korean pine forest had weaker correlation with temperature but stronger positive correlation with the precipitation of previous growing season. The increases of minimum and mean temperatures were obvious, but no significant variations of the maximum temperature and precipitation were observed at our site. The climatic variation facilitated the increase of the NPP of P. koraiensis in the secondary poplar-birch forest at the initial successional stage and in secondary coniferous and broad-leaved forest at the intermediate successional stage, and this effect was especially obvious for the secondary coniferous and broad-leaved forest, but very small for the primitive Korean pine forest which was at the climax phase.}, }
@article {pmid25345030, year = {2014}, author = {Teng, L and Xing-Yuan, H and Zhen-Ju, C}, title = {[Tree-ring growth responses of Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) to climate change in southern northeast: a case study in Qianshan Mountains].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {7}, pages = {1841-1848}, pmid = {25345030}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Forests ; Quercus/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Mongolian oak is one of the most important broad-leaved tree species in forests, Northeast China. Based on the methodology of dendrochronology, the variations of tree ring radial growth of Mongolian oak in Qianshan Mountains, south of Northeast China, were analyzed. Combined with the temperature and precipitation data from meteorological stations since 1951, the relationships between standardized tree ring width chronology and main climatic factors were analyzed. In this region, the precipitation between April and July of the current year had an significant relationship with the tree ring width of Mongolian oak, and was the main factor limiting the radial growth. The extreme maximum temperature of May was also a key factor influencing the tree ring width, which had a significant on the tree ring width of Mongolian oak. The precipitation in April had a significant and stable relationship with the growth of Mongolian oak since the 1950s. The 'divergence problem' was found in the study area, which the sensitivity of tree growth to summer temperature reduced since the 1980s. The tree growth response to temperature showed a seasonal change from summer to spring.}, }
@article {pmid25338388, year = {2014}, author = {Wang, C and Shen, JL and Zheng, L and Liu, JY and Qin, HL and Li, Y and Wu, JS}, title = {[Effects of combined applications of pig manure and chemical fertilizers on CH4 and N2O emissions and their global warming potentials in paddy fields with double-rice cropping].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {35}, number = {8}, pages = {3120-3127}, pmid = {25338388}, issn = {0250-3301}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Animals ; *Fertilizers ; Gases/analysis ; Global Warming ; *Manure ; Methane/*analysis ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; *Oryza ; Seasons ; Soil/chemistry ; Sus scrofa ; }, abstract = {A field experiment was carried out to study the effects of combined applications of pig manure and chemical fertilizers on CH4 and N2O emissions, which were measured using the static chamber/gas chromatography method, and their global warming potentials in typical paddy fields with double-rice cropping in Hunan province. The results showed that the combined applications of pig manure and chemical fertilizers did not change the seasonal patterns of CH4 and N2O emissions from paddy soils, but significantly changed the magnitudes of CH4 and N2O fluxes in rice growing seasons as compared with sole application of chemical fertilizers. During the two rice growing seasons, the cumulative CH4 emissions for the pig manure and chemical nitrogen (N) fertilizer each contributing to 50% of the total applied N (1/2N + PM) treatment were higher than those for the treatments of no N fertilizer (ON), half amount of chemical N fertilizer (1/2N) and 100% chemical N fertilizer (N) by 54.83%, 33.85% and 43.30%, respectively (P < 0.05), whilst the cumulative N2O emissions for the 1/2N + PM treatment were decreased by 67.50% compared with N treatment, but increased by 129.43% and 119.23% compared with ON and 1/2N treatments, respectively (P < 0.05). CH4 was the dominant contributor to the global warming potential (GWP) in both rice growing seasons, which contributed more than 99% to the integrated GWP of CH4 and N2O emissions for all the four treatments. Both GWP and yield-scaled GWP for the treatment of 1/2N + PM were significantly higher than the other three treatments. The yield-scaled GWP for the treatment of 1/2N + PM was higher than those for the N, 1/2N and ON treatments by 58.21%, 26.82% and 20. 63%, respectively. Therefore, combined applications of pig manure and chemical fertilizers in paddy fields would increase the GWP of CH4 and N2O emissions during rice growing seasons and this effect should be considered in regional greenhouse gases emissions inventory.}, }
@article {pmid25336089, year = {2015}, author = {Royles, J and Griffiths, H}, title = {Invited review: climate change impacts in polar regions: lessons from Antarctic moss bank archives.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {1041-1057}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12774}, pmid = {25336089}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Bryophyta/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Mosses are the dominant plants in polar and boreal regions, areas which are experiencing rapid impacts of regional warming. Long-term monitoring programmes provide some records of the rate of recent climate change, but moss peat banks contain an unrivalled temporal record of past climate change on terrestrial plant Antarctic systems. We summarise the current understanding of climatic proxies and determinants of moss growth for contrasting continental and maritime Antarctic regions, as informed by 13C and 18O signals in organic material. Rates of moss accumulation are more than three times higher in the maritime Antarctic than continental Antarctica with growing season length being a critical determinant of growth rate, and high carbon isotope discrimination values reflecting optimal hydration conditions. Correlation plots of 13C and 18O values show that species (Chorisodontium aciphyllum / Polytrichum strictum) and growth form (hummock / bank) are the major determinants of measured isotope ratios. The interplay between moss growth form, photosynthetic physiology, water status and isotope composition are compared with developments of secondary proxies, such as chlorophyll fluorescence. These approaches provide a framework to consider the potential impact of climate change on terrestrial Antarctic habitats as well as having implications for future studies of temperate, boreal and Arctic peatlands. There are many urgent ecological and environmental problems in the Arctic related to mosses in a changing climate, but the geographical ranges of species and life-forms are difficult to track individually. Our goal was to translate what we have learned from the more simple systems in Antarctica, for application to Arctic habitats.}, }
@article {pmid25333380, year = {2014}, author = {Chollett, I and Enríquez, S and Mumby, PJ}, title = {Redefining thermal regimes to design reserves for coral reefs in the face of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {e110634}, pmid = {25333380}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Coral Reefs ; Environmental Monitoring ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Reef managers cannot fight global warming through mitigation at local scale, but they can use information on thermal patterns to plan for reserve networks that maximize the probability of persistence of their reef system. Here we assess previous methods for the design of reserves for climate change and present a new approach to prioritize areas for conservation that leverages the most desirable properties of previous approaches. The new method moves the science of reserve design for climate change a step forwards by: (1) recognizing the role of seasonal acclimation in increasing the limits of environmental tolerance of corals and ameliorating the bleaching response; (2) using the best proxy for acclimatization currently available; (3) including information from several bleaching events, which frequency is likely to increase in the future; (4) assessing relevant variability at country scales, where most management plans are carried out. We demonstrate the method in Honduras, where a reassessment of the marine spatial plan is in progress.}, }
@article {pmid25330325, year = {2015}, author = {Dias de Oliveira, EA and Siddique, KH and Bramley, H and Stefanova, K and Palta, JA}, title = {Response of wheat restricted-tillering and vigorous growth traits to variables of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {857-873}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12769}, pmid = {25330325}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Edible Grain/growth &amp; development ; Hot Temperature ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The response of wheat to the variables of climate change includes elevated CO2, high temperature, and drought which vary according to the levels of each variable and genotype. Independently, elevated CO2, high temperature, and terminal drought affect wheat biomass and grain yield, but the interactive effects of these three variables are not well known. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of elevated CO2 when combined with high temperature and terminal drought on the high-yielding traits of restricted-tillering and vigorous growth. It was hypothesized that elevated CO2 alone, rather than combined with high temperature, ameliorates the effects of terminal drought on wheat biomass and grain yield. It was also hypothesized that wheat genotypes with more sink capacity (e.g. high-tillering capacity and leaf area) have more grain yield under combined elevated CO2, high temperature, and terminal drought. Two pairs of sister lines with contrasting tillering and vigorous growth were grown in poly-tunnels in a four-factor completely randomized split-plot design with elevated CO2 (700 µL L(-1)), high day time temperature (3 °C above ambient), and drought (induced from anthesis) in all combinations to test whether elevated CO2 ameliorates the effects of high temperature and terminal drought on biomass accumulation and grain yield. For biomass and grain yield, only main effects for climate change variables were significant. Elevated CO2 significantly increased grain yield by 24-35% in all four lines and terminal drought significantly reduced grain yield by 16-17% in all four lines, while high temperature (3 °C above the ambient) had no significant effect. A trade-off between yield components limited grain yield in lines with greater sink capacity (free-tillering lines). This response suggests that any positive response to predicted changes in climate will not overcome the limitations imposed by the trade-off in yield components.}, }
@article {pmid25330151, year = {2014}, author = {Rivaes, RP and Rodríguez-González, PM and Ferreira, MT and Pinheiro, AN and Politti, E and Egger, G and García-Arias, A and Francés, F}, title = {Modeling the evolution of riparian woodlands facing climate change in three European rivers with contrasting flow regimes.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {e110200}, pmid = {25330151}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Forests ; *Hydrology ; *Models, Statistical ; *Rivers ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {Global circulation models forecasts indicate a future temperature and rainfall pattern modification worldwide. Such phenomena will become particularly evident in Europe where climate modifications could be more severe than the average change at the global level. As such, river flow regimes are expected to change, with resultant impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Riparian woodlands are among the most endangered ecosystems on earth and provide vital services to interconnected ecosystems and human societies. However, they have not been the object of many studies designed to spatially and temporally quantify how these ecosystems will react to climate change-induced flow regimes. Our goal was to assess the effects of climate-changed flow regimes on the existing riparian vegetation of three different European flow regimes. Cases studies were selected in the light of the most common watershed alimentation modes occurring across European regions, with the objective of appraising expected alterations in the riparian elements of fluvial systems due to climate change. Riparian vegetation modeling was performed using the CASiMiR-vegetation model, which bases its computation on the fluvial disturbance of the riparian patch mosaic. Modeling results show that riparian woodlands may undergo not only at least moderate changes for all flow regimes, but also some dramatic adjustments in specific areas of particular vegetation development stages. There are circumstances in which complete annihilation is feasible. Pluvial flow regimes, like the ones in southern European rivers, are those likely to experience more pronounced changes. Furthermore, regardless of the flow regime, younger and more water-dependent individuals are expected to be the most affected by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25323386, year = {2014}, author = {Hou, W and Dong, H and Li, G and Yang, J and Coolen, MJ and Liu, X and Wang, S and Jiang, H and Wu, X and Xiao, H and Lian, B and Wan, Y}, title = {Identification of photosynthetic plankton communities using sedimentary ancient DNA and their response to late-Holocene climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {6648}, pmid = {25323386}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; DNA/*genetics/isolation &amp; purification ; *Ecosystem ; Geologic Sediments/microbiology ; Photosynthesis/genetics ; Plankton/*genetics/isolation &amp; purification/physiology ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Sediments from Tibetan lakes in NW China are potentially sensitive recorders of climate change and its impact on ecosystem function. However, the important plankton members in many Tibetan Lakes do not make and leave microscopically diagnostic features in the sedimentary record. Here we established a taxon-specific molecular approach to specifically identify and quantify sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) of non-fossilized planktonic organisms preserved in a 5-m sediment core from Kusai Lake spanning the last 3100 years. The reliability of the approach was validated with multiple independent genetic markers. Parallel analyses of the geochemistry of the core and paleo-climate proxies revealed that Monsoon strength-driven changes in nutrient availability, temperature, and salinity as well as orbitally-driven changes in light intensity were all responsible for the observed temporal changes in the abundance of two dominant phytoplankton groups in the lake, Synechococcus (cyanobacteria) and Isochrysis (haptophyte algae). Collectively our data show that global and regional climatic events exhibited a strong influence on the paleoecology of phototrophic plankton in Kusai Lake.}, }
@article {pmid25323145, year = {2014}, author = {Govindan, SS and Agamuthu, P}, title = {Quantification of landfill methane using modified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's waste model and error function analysis.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {32}, number = {10}, pages = {1005-1014}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X14552551}, pmid = {25323145}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Malaysia ; Methane/*analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Waste Disposal Facilities ; *Waste Management ; }, abstract = {Waste management can be regarded as a cross-cutting environmental 'mega-issue'. Sound waste management practices support the provision of basic needs for general health, such as clean air, clean water and safe supply of food. In addition, climate change mitigation efforts can be achieved through reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from waste management operations, such as landfills. Landfills generate landfill gas, especially methane, as a result of anaerobic degradation of the degradable components of municipal solid waste. Evaluating the mode of generation and collection of landfill gas has posted a challenge over time. Scientifically, landfill gas generation rates are presently estimated using numerical models. In this study the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Waste Model is used to estimate the methane generated from a Malaysian sanitary landfill. Key parameters of the model, which are the decay rate and degradable organic carbon, are analysed in two different approaches; the bulk waste approach and waste composition approach. The model is later validated using error function analysis and optimum decay rate, and degradable organic carbon for both approaches were also obtained. The best fitting values for the bulk waste approach are a decay rate of 0.08 y(-1) and degradable organic carbon value of 0.12; and for the waste composition approach the decay rate was found to be 0.09 y(-1) and degradable organic carbon value of 0.08. From this validation exercise, the estimated error was reduced by 81% and 69% for the bulk waste and waste composition approach, respectively. In conclusion, this type of modelling could constitute a sensible starting point for landfills to introduce careful planning for efficient gas recovery in individual landfills.}, }
@article {pmid25323002, year = {2015}, author = {Zilberman, D}, title = {IPCC AR5 overlooked the potential of unleashing agricultural biotechnology to combat climate change and poverty.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {501-503}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12765}, pmid = {25323002}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Biotechnology ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Engineering ; *Poverty ; }, }
@article {pmid25322929, year = {2015}, author = {Princé, K and Zuckerberg, B}, title = {Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {572-585}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12740}, pmid = {25322929}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Mexico ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {Much of the recent changes in North American climate have occurred during the winter months, and as result, overwintering birds represent important sentinels of anthropogenic climate change. While there is mounting evidence that bird populations are responding to a warming climate (e.g., poleward shifts) questions remain as to whether these species-specific responses are resulting in community-wide changes. Here, we test the hypothesis that a changing winter climate should favor the formation of winter bird communities dominated by warm-adapted species. To do this, we quantified changes in community composition using a functional index--the Community Temperature Index (CTI)--which measures the balance between low- and high-temperature dwelling species in a community. Using data from Project FeederWatch, an international citizen science program, we quantified spatiotemporal changes in winter bird communities (n = 38 bird species) across eastern North America and tested the influence of changes in winter minimum temperature over a 22-year period. We implemented a jackknife analysis to identify those species most influential in driving changes at the community level and the population dynamics (e.g., extinction or colonization) responsible for these community changes. Since 1990, we found that the winter bird community structure has changed with communities increasingly composed of warm-adapted species. This reshuffling of winter bird communities was strongest in southerly latitudes and driven primarily by local increases in abundance and regional patterns of colonization by southerly birds. CTI tracked patterns of changing winter temperature at different temporal scales ranging from 1 to 35 years. We conclude that a shifting winter climate has provided an opportunity for smaller, southerly distributed species to colonize new regions and promote the formation of unique winter bird assemblages throughout eastern North America.}, }
@article {pmid25320112, year = {2014}, author = {Merewood, A}, title = {Climate change.}, journal = {Journal of human lactation : official journal of International Lactation Consultant Association}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {393}, doi = {10.1177/0890334414549936}, pmid = {25320112}, issn = {1552-5732}, mesh = {*Breast Feeding ; Female ; Global Health ; *Healthcare Disparities ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Societies, Medical/*organization &amp; administration ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid25319352, year = {2014}, author = {Anderko, L and Davies-Cole, J and Strunk, A}, title = {Identifying populations at risk: interdisciplinary environmental climate change tracking.}, journal = {Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.)}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {484-491}, doi = {10.1111/phn.12164}, pmid = {25319352}, issn = {1525-1446}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Asthma/ethnology/therapy ; Cardiovascular Diseases/ethnology/therapy ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Hospitalization/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Population Surveillance/*methods ; *Public Health ; Racial Groups/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Regression Analysis ; Risk Assessment ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change, experienced as extreme weather events such as heat waves can lead to poorer air quality and underscores the critical need to consider the consequences of these environmental changes on health. Changes are occurring at a rate that exceeds what the world has experienced over the last 650,000 years, yet little attention has been focused on the potentially catastrophic public health effects of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: This study instituted a two-phase approach. In building capacity for an Environmental Public Health Tracking Network, the District of Columbia Department of Health first examined the availability of climate change and health data. These data were then used to assess vulnerabilities and disease burden associated with heat, air quality, and hospitalizations for asthma (N&#xa0;=&#xa0;5,921) and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (N&#xa0;=&#xa0;2,773) during 2007-2010. A Poisson regression analysis was applied to the time series of daily counts for hospitalizations for selected age, race, and gender groups.<br><br>RESULTS: Although no significant associations were found for PM2.5, PM10, or ozone with asthma-related or AMI-related hospitalizations with seasonal changes, surveillance data found disparities in hospitalizations particularly in female, African American residents for both asthma and AMI.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Tracking Networks are critical for assessing community environmental health vulnerabilities.}, }
@article {pmid25318616, year = {2015}, author = {Cardoso, P and Freitas, R and Figueira, E}, title = {Salt tolerance of rhizobial populations from contrasting environmental conditions: understanding the implications of climate change.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology (London, England)}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {143-152}, pmid = {25318616}, issn = {1573-3017}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Inhibitory Concentration 50 ; Multivariate Analysis ; Nitrogen Fixation ; Plasmids/genetics ; Rhizobium/classification/*physiology ; Salinity ; *Salt Tolerance ; *Soil Microbiology ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {It is predicted that global climate change may alter environmental parameters such as rainfall distribution which in turn may alter the salinity of soils with unpredictable effects upon soil microbial populations. In the present work the tolerance to salinity of rhizobia, isolated from locations with contrasting climatic conditions, and the potential of strains to fix nitrogen symbiotically under saline conditions were investigated. Since plasmids may encode key genes related to growth and survival under environmental stress conditions, which will reflect on protein synthesis, both the plasmid and protein profiles were analyzed. A multivariate statistical approach related salt tolerance to the origin of the isolates, identifying rainfall and water availability as a possible factor explaining the differences in salt tolerance displayed by rhizobia isolates. The classification analysis allowed the subdivision of isolates in terms of salt tolerance into extremely sensitive (≤0.15 %), sensitive (0.15-0.6 %), moderately tolerant (0.9-1.5 %), tolerant (2.1-3.6 %) and extremely tolerant (≥5.4 %). Taken all together it was shown that plasmids are involved in salt tolerance and that the impact of salinity on the protein profile and nitrogen fixation varied according to the salt tolerance of the strains, evidencing the susceptibility of rhizobial communities to changes in rainfall regimes.}, }
@article {pmid25318515, year = {2014}, author = {Cheema, AR}, title = {Climate change: Pakistan must invest in adaptation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {514}, number = {7522}, pages = {305}, doi = {10.1038/514305a}, pmid = {25318515}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Budgets ; Climate Change/*economics/mortality ; Disaster Planning/*economics ; Disasters ; Floods/mortality ; Pakistan ; }, }
@article {pmid25317563, year = {2014}, author = {Davis, SJ and Shearer, C}, title = {Climate change: A crack in the natural-gas bridge.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {514}, number = {7523}, pages = {436-437}, pmid = {25317563}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Environmental Policy ; Natural Gas/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid25317557, year = {2014}, author = {McJeon, H and Edmonds, J and Bauer, N and Clarke, L and Fisher, B and Flannery, BP and Hilaire, J and Krey, V and Marangoni, G and Mi, R and Riahi, K and Rogner, H and Tavoni, M}, title = {Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {514}, number = {7523}, pages = {482-485}, pmid = {25317557}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Environmental Policy ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Models, Theoretical ; Natural Gas/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data/supply &amp; distribution ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from -2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.}, }
@article {pmid25317383, year = {2014}, author = {Parkinson, AJ and Evengard, B and Semenza, JC and Ogden, N and Børresen, ML and Berner, J and Brubaker, M and Sjöstedt, A and Evander, M and Hondula, DM and Menne, B and Pshenichnaya, N and Gounder, P and Larose, T and Revich, B and Hueffer, K and Albihn, A}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic: establishment of a circumpolar working group.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {73}, number = {}, pages = {25163}, pmid = {25317383}, issn = {2242-3982}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*organization &amp; administration ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Environmental Health ; Female ; Health Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Male ; Program Evaluation ; Risk Assessment ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may also allow infected host species to survive winters in larger numbers, increase the population size and expand their habitat range. The impact of these changes on human disease in the Arctic has not been fully evaluated. There is concern that climate change may shift the geographic and temporal distribution of a range of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive, where their emergence in a region is dependent on climate-related ecological changes. Most are zoonotic diseases, and can be spread between humans and animals by arthropod vectors, water, soil, wild or domestic animals. Potentially climate-sensitive zoonotic pathogens of circumpolar concern include Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella spp., Clostridium botulinum, Francisella tularensis, Borrelia burgdorferi, Bacillus anthracis, Echinococcus spp., Leptospira spp., Giardia spp., Cryptosporida spp., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses.}, }
@article {pmid25314978, year = {2014}, author = {Kalchenko, T and Fadnes, LT}, title = {[Re: Climate change is a health issue].}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {134}, number = {19}, pages = {1824}, doi = {10.4045/tidsskr.14.1164}, pmid = {25314978}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25312295, year = {2015}, author = {Koch, MS and Coronado, C and Miller, MW and Rudnick, DT and Stabenau, E and Halley, RB and Sklar, FH}, title = {Climate change projected effects on coastal foundation communities of the Greater Everglades using a 2060 scenario: need for a new management paradigm.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {857-875}, pmid = {25312295}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Coral Reefs ; *Ecosystem ; Florida ; Forests ; Water Movements ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Rising sea levels and temperature will be dominant drivers of coastal Everglades' foundation communities (i.e., mangrove forests, seagrass/macroalgae, and coral reefs) by 2060 based on a climate change scenario of +1.5 °C temperature, +1.5 foot (46 cm) in sea level, ±10 % in precipitation and 490 ppm CO2. Current mangrove forest soil elevation change in South Florida ranges from 0.9 to 2.5 mm year(-1) and would have to increase twofold to fourfold in order to accommodate a 2060 sea level rise rate. No evidence is available to indicate that coastal mangroves from South Florida and the wider Caribbean can keep pace with a rapid rate of sea level rise. Thus, particles and nutrients from destabilized coastlines could be mobilized and impact benthic habitats of southern Florida. Uncertainties in regional geomorphology and coastal current changes under higher sea levels make this prediction tentative without further research. The 2060 higher temperature scenario would compromise Florida's coral reefs that are already degraded. We suggest that a new paradigm is needed for resource management under climate change that manages coastlines for resilience to marine transgression and promotes active ecosystem management. In the case of the Everglades, greater freshwater flows could maximize mangrove peat accumulation, stabilize coastlines, and limit saltwater intrusion, while specific coral species may require propagation. Further, we suggest that regional climate drivers and oceanographic processes be incorporated into Everglades and South Florida management plans, as they are likely to impact coastal ecosystems, interior freshwater wetlands and urban coastlines over the next few decades.}, }
@article {pmid25310933, year = {2015}, author = {Hamann, A and Roberts, DR and Barber, QE and Carroll, C and Nielsen, SE}, title = {Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {997-1004}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12736}, pmid = {25310933}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Algorithms ; Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Models, Theoretical ; Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities).}, }
@article {pmid25300966, year = {2015}, author = {Folberth, GA and Butler, TM and Collins, WJ and Rumbold, ST}, title = {Megacities and climate change - A brief overview.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {203}, number = {}, pages = {235-242}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2014.09.004}, pmid = {25300966}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Cities ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {Cities have developed into the hotspots of human economic activity. From the appearance of the first cities in the Neolithic to 21st century metropolis their impact on the environment has always been apparent. With more people living in cities than in rural environments now it becomes crucial to understand these environmental impacts. With the immergence of megacities in the 20th century and their continued growth in both, population and economic power, the environmental impact has reached the global scale. In this paper we examine megacity impacts on atmospheric composition and climate. We present basic concepts, discuss various definitions of footprints, summarize research on megacity impacts and assess the impact of megacity emissions on air quality and on the climate at the regional to global scale. The intention and ambition of this paper is to give a comprehensive but brief overview of the science with regard to megacities and the environment.}, }
@article {pmid25297868, year = {2014}, author = {Saupe, EE and Hendricks, JR and Portell, RW and Dowsett, HJ and Haywood, A and Hunter, SJ and Lieberman, BS}, title = {Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {281}, number = {1795}, pages = {}, pmid = {25297868}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Mollusca/genetics/*physiology ; Phylogeny ; United States ; }, abstract = {In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks.}, }
@article {pmid25297455, year = {2015}, author = {Chadwick, AE}, title = {Toward a theory of persuasive hope: effects of cognitive appraisals, hope appeals, and hope in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Health communication}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {598-611}, doi = {10.1080/10410236.2014.916777}, pmid = {25297455}, issn = {1532-7027}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Behavior ; Climate Change ; Cognition ; Emotions ; Female ; *Hope ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Motivation ; *Persuasive Communication ; *Psychological Theory ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Hope has the potential to be a powerful motivator for influencing behavior. However, hope and messages that evoke hope (hope appeals) have rarely been the focus of theoretical development or empirical research. As a step toward the effective development and use of hope appeals in persuasive communication, this study conceptualized and operationalized hope appeals in the context of climate change prevention. Then, the study manipulated components of the hope evocation part of a hope appeal. Specifically, the components were designed to address appraisals of the importance, goal congruence, future expectation, and possibility of climate protection, resulting in a 2 (strong/weak importance) × 2 (strong/weak goal congruence) × 2 (strong/weak future expectation) × 2 (strong/weak possibility) between-subjects pretest-posttest factorial design. Two hundred forty-five undergraduate students were randomly assigned to one of the 16 message conditions and completed the study online. The study tested whether the four appraisals predict feelings of hope. It determined whether message components that address importance, goal congruence, future expectation, and possibility affect appraisals, feelings of hope, and persuasion outcomes. Finally, this study tested the effects of feelings of hope on persuasion outcomes. This study takes an important step toward enabling the effective use of hope appeals in persuasive communication.}, }
@article {pmid25291498, year = {2014}, author = {Schnoor, JL}, title = {Responding to climate change with a carbon tax.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {21}, pages = {12475-12476}, doi = {10.1021/es5047952}, pmid = {25291498}, issn = {1520-5851}, }
@article {pmid25290492, year = {2014}, author = {Macmillan, A and Jones, R and Bennett, H}, title = {New Zealand health professional organisations' joint call for action on climate change and health.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {127}, number = {1403}, pages = {5-8}, pmid = {25290492}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Diet ; Health Behavior ; Housing ; Humans ; New Zealand ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid25285977, year = {2014}, author = {Gerardi, DA and Kellerman, RA}, title = {Climate change and respiratory health.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {56 Suppl 10}, number = {}, pages = {S49-54}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0000000000000292}, pmid = {25285977}, issn = {1536-5948}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Developing Countries ; Disease Progression ; Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/etiology/mortality ; Respiratory Function Tests ; Respiratory Hypersensitivity/etiology/mortality ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*etiology/mortality ; Survival Analysis ; United States ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To discuss the nature of climate change and both its immediate and long-term effects on human respiratory health.<br><br>METHODS: This review is based on information from a presentation of the American College of Chest Physicians course on Occupational and Environmental Lung Disease held in Toronto, Canada, June 2013. It is supplemented by a PubMed search for climate change, global warming, respiratory tract diseases, and respiratory health. It is also supplemented by a search of Web sites including the Environmental Protection Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, World Meteorological Association, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, and the World Health Organization.<br><br>RESULTS: Health effects of climate change include an increase in the prevalence of certain respiratory diseases, exacerbations of chronic lung disease, premature mortality, allergic responses, and declines in lung function.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change, mediated by greenhouse gases, causes adverse health effects to the most vulnerable patient populations-the elderly, children, and those in distressed socioeconomic strata.}, }
@article {pmid25285917, year = {2014}, author = {Ravazzani, G and Ghilardi, M and Mendlik, T and Gobiet, A and Corbari, C and Mancini, M}, title = {Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {e109053}, pmid = {25285917}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Hydrology ; Italy ; *Models, Theoretical ; Plant Transpiration/*physiology ; Rain ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; *Water Resources ; }, abstract = {Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.}, }
@article {pmid25285440, year = {2014}, author = {Wei, J and Hansen, A and Zhang, Y and Li, H and Liu, Q and Sun, Y and Xue, S and Zhao, S and Bi, P}, title = {The impact of climate change on infectious disease transmission: perceptions of CDC health professionals in Shanxi Province, China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {e109476}, pmid = {25285440}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/*transmission ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; Female ; *Government Agencies ; Health Personnel/*psychology ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Perception ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {There have been increasing concerns about the challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change, especially in developing countries including China. Health professionals play a significant role in the battle to control and prevent infectious diseases. This study therefore aims to investigate the perceptions and attitudes of health professionals at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in different levels in China, and to consider adaptation measures to deal with the challenge of climate change. In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 staff in CDCs in Shanxi Province, China, whose routine work involves disease control and prevention. Data were analyzed using descriptive methods and logistic regression. A majority of the CDC staff were aware of the health risks from climate change, especially its impacts on infectious disease transmission in their jurisdictions, and believed climate change might bring about both temporal and spatial change in transmission patterns. It was thought that adaptation measures should be established including: strengthening/improving currently existing disease surveillance systems and vector monitoring; building CDC capacity in terms of infrastructure and in-house health professional training; development and refinement of relevant legislation, policies and guidelines; better coordination among various government departments; the involvement of the community in infectious disease interventions; and collaborative research with other institutions. This study provides a snapshot of the understanding of CDC staff regarding climate change risks relevant to infectious diseases and adaptation in China. Results may help inform future efforts to develop adaptation measures to minimize infectious disease risks due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25283386, year = {2015}, author = {Chakraborty, D and Ramakrishnan, U and Sinha, A}, title = {Quaternary climate change and social behavior shaped the genetic differentiation of an endangered montane primate from the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {American journal of primatology}, volume = {77}, number = {3}, pages = {271-284}, doi = {10.1002/ajp.22343}, pmid = {25283386}, issn = {1098-2345}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Ecosystem ; Evolution, Molecular ; Female ; Gene Flow ; *Genetics, Population ; India ; Macaca/*genetics ; Male ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Phylogeography ; Population Dynamics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Social Behavior ; }, abstract = {Multiple factors, including climate change, dispersal barriers, and social behavior influence the genetic structure of natural populations. While the effects of extrinsic factors such as historical climatic change and habitat topography have been well studied, mostly in temperate habitats, the simultaneous effects of intrinsic factors such as social behavior on genetic structure have rarely been explored. Such simultaneous effect, however, may particularly be common in social mammals such as many primates. Consequently, we studied the population structure of a rare and endangered social primate, the Arunachal macaque Macaca munzala, endemic to the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, located on the subtropical southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau and forming part of the Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. We studied a 534 bp-long mitochondrial DNA sequence and 22 autosomal microsatellite loci in individuals from three populations, Tawang, Upper Subansiri, and West Siang. The mtDNA data revealed three major divergence events: that between the Arunachal and bonnet macaques (ca. 1.61 mya), the founding of the West Siang population and the ancestral population of the present-day bonnet macaques (ca. 1.32 mya), and the divergence between the Tawang and Upper Subansiri populations (ca. 0.80 mya) that coincided with the major glacial events in the region. Comparing mitochondrial DNA with autosomal microsatellites, we also found evidence for female philopatry and male-driven long-distance gene flow. Arunachal macaques thus appear to be characterized by groups of philopatric females separated by geographical barriers and harsh climate but with dispersing males exerting a homogenizing effect on the nuclear gene pool. Given that severe population differentiation is of major concern in species conservation, we suggest that our study populations represent significant conservation units of this rare, endangered primate but, more importantly, emphasize the complex interplay of extrinsic and intrinsic factors in shaping the population structure of a social mammalian species.}, }
@article {pmid25282995, year = {2014}, author = {Princiotta, FT and Loughlin, DH}, title = {Global climate change: the quantifiable sustainability challenge.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {64}, number = {9}, pages = {979-994}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2014.923351}, pmid = {25282995}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Population Growth ; Renewable Energy ; }, abstract = {Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the potential for catastrophic climate change will be a monumental challenge, requiring the global community to transform its energy system in an aggressive, coordinated, and timely manner. If this challenge is to be met, new technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important. Even with an aggressive international mitigation effort, humanity will still need to adapt to significant climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25281936, year = {2015}, author = {Sussams, LW and Sheate, WR and Eales, RP}, title = {Green infrastructure as a climate change adaptation policy intervention: muddying the waters or clearing a path to a more secure future?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {147}, number = {}, pages = {184-193}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.09.003}, pmid = {25281936}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Decision Making, Organizational ; Decision Support Techniques ; Humans ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {As dangerous climate change looms, decision-makers are increasingly realising that societies will need to adapt to this threat as well as mitigate against it. Green infrastructure (GI) is increasingly seen as an ideal climate change adaptation policy response. However, with this research the authors identify a number of crucial knowledge gaps within GI and, consequently, call for caution and for a concerted effort to understand the concept and what it can really deliver. GI has risen to prominence in a range of policy areas in large part due to its perceived ability to produce multiple benefits simultaneously, termed 'multifunctionality'. This characteristic strengthens the political appeal of the policy in question at a time when environmental issues have slipped down political agendas. Multifunctionality, however, brings its own set of new challenges that should be evaluated fully before the policy is implemented. This research takes important first steps to developing a critical understanding of what is achievable within GI's capacity. It focuses on one of GI's single objectives, namely climate change adaptation, to focus the analysis of how current obstacles in applying GI's multifunctionality could lead to the ineffective delivery of its objective. By drawing on expert opinion from government officials and representatives from the private, non-government organisation (NGO) and academic sectors, this research questions GI's ability to be effectively 'multifunctional' with an inconsistent definition at its core, deficiencies in its understanding and conflicts within its governance. In light of these observations, the authors then reflect on the judiciousness of applying GI to achieve the other objectives it has also been charged with delivering.}, }
@article {pmid25281232, year = {2015}, author = {Campmas, E and Michel, P and Costamagno, S and Amani, F and Stoetzel, E and Nespoulet, R and El Hajraoui, MA}, title = {Were Upper Pleistocene human/non-human predator occupations at the Témara caves (El Harhoura 2 and El Mnasra, Morocco) influenced by climate change?.}, journal = {Journal of human evolution}, volume = {78}, number = {}, pages = {122-143}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhevol.2014.08.008}, pmid = {25281232}, issn = {1095-8606}, mesh = {Animals ; Bone and Bones/pathology ; *Caves ; *Climate Change ; Feeding Behavior/*physiology ; Humans ; Mammals ; Mollusca ; Morocco ; Paleontology ; }, abstract = {The influence of climate change on human settlements in coastal areas is a central question for archaeologists. This paper addresses this issue by focusing on the Témara region in Morocco. The study area was selected for two main reasons. First, it contains numerous caves with Upper Pleistocene deposits, which have yielded remains of anatomically modern humans in association with Aterian and Iberomaurusian artifacts. Second, these caves are currently located on the shore, thus this region is particularly sensitive to major climate change and sea level fluctuations. Diachronic taphonomic study of faunal remains from two sites in the region, El Harhoura 2 and El Mnasra caves, shows alternating human/non-human predator occupations. The lower layers of El Mnasra Cave dating to Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS) 5 have yielded diverse ungulate remains with significant anthropogenic impact marks, together with numerous mollusk shells, Nassarius shell beads, hearths, lithics, some bone tools and used pigments. Faunal remains from the upper layers dating to OIS 4, 3 and 2 of El Harhoura 2 and El Mnasra caves, largely dominated by gazelles, provide evidence of carnivore activities, such as tooth marks, numerous semi-digested bones and coprolites alongside some anthropogenic signatures (cut marks and burnt bones). Non-human predators appear to be the main agents responsible for faunal modifications and accumulations. The 'non-intensive' nature of human occupation is confirmed by analyses of the lithic industry at El Harhoura 2. The 'intensive' human occupations date to OIS 5 and could have taken place during wet periods in connection with high sea levels, which allowed the exploitation of shellfish in this area. 'Non-intensive' human occupations generally correspond to arid periods and lower sea levels, during which the Témara area was further inland and may have been less attractive to humans.}, }
@article {pmid25279720, year = {2014}, author = {Svensson, F and Norberg, J and Snoeijs, P}, title = {Diatom cell size, coloniality and motility: trade-offs between temperature, salinity and nutrient supply with climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {e109993}, pmid = {25279720}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Cell Size ; *Climate Change ; Diatoms/*cytology/*physiology ; *Food Supply ; *Salinity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Reduction in body size has been proposed as a universal response of organisms, both to warming and to decreased salinity. However, it is still controversial if size reduction is caused by temperature or salinity on their own, or if other factors interfere as well. We used natural benthic diatom communities to explore how "body size" (cells and colonies) and motility change along temperature (2-26°C) and salinity (0.5-7.8) gradients in the brackish Baltic Sea. Fourth-corner analysis confirmed that small cell and colony sizes were associated with high temperature in summer. Average community cell volume decreased linearly with 2.2% per °C. However, cells were larger with artificial warming when nutrient concentrations were high in the cold season. Average community cell volume increased by 5.2% per °C of artificial warming from 0 to 8.5°C and simultaneously there was a selection for motility, which probably helped to optimize growth rates by trade-offs between nutrient supply and irradiation. Along the Baltic Sea salinity gradient cell size decreased with decreasing salinity, apparently mediated by nutrient stoichiometry. Altogether, our results suggest that climate change in this century may polarize seasonality by creating two new niches, with elevated temperature at high nutrient concentrations in the cold season (increasing cell size) and elevated temperature at low nutrient concentrations in the warm season (decreasing cell size). Higher temperature in summer and lower salinity by increased land-runoff are expected to decrease the average cell size of primary producers, which is likely to affect the transfer of energy to higher trophic levels.}, }
@article {pmid25276499, year = {2014}, author = {Faghmous, JH and Kumar, V}, title = {A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science.}, journal = {Big data}, volume = {2}, number = {3}, pages = {155-163}, pmid = {25276499}, issn = {2167-6461}, abstract = {Global climate change and its impact on human life has become one of our era's greatest challenges. Despite the urgency, data science has had little impact on furthering our understanding of our planet in spite of the abundance of climate data. This is a stark contrast from other fields such as advertising or electronic commerce where big data has been a great success story. This discrepancy stems from the complex nature of climate data as well as the scientific questions climate science brings forth. This article introduces a data science audience to the challenges and opportunities to mine large climate datasets, with an emphasis on the nuanced difference between mining climate data and traditional big data approaches. We focus on data, methods, and application challenges that must be addressed in order for big data to fulfill their promise with regard to climate science applications. More importantly, we highlight research showing that solely relying on traditional big data techniques results in dubious findings, and we instead propose a theory-guided data science paradigm that uses scientific theory to constrain both the big data techniques as well as the results-interpretation process to extract accurate insight from large climate data.}, }
@article {pmid25274623, year = {2014}, author = {Godlee, F}, title = {Climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {349}, number = {}, pages = {g5945}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g5945}, pmid = {25274623}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid25272124, year = {2014}, author = {Landin, R and Giatti, LL}, title = {[The climate change policy of the city of São Paulo, Brazil: reflexivity and permeability of the health sector].}, journal = {Ciencia &amp; saude coletiva}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {4149-4156}, doi = {10.1590/1413-812320141910.08972014}, pmid = {25272124}, issn = {1678-4561}, mesh = {Brazil ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; Quality of Life ; *Urban Health ; }, abstract = {São Paulo is today an unsustainable city in which social and environmental vulnerabilities are obliged to tackle the uncertainties of climate change. To face up to this situation, in 2009 the city unveiled its Climate Change Policy. The scope of this paper is to analyze how the health sector is preparing to contribute to the implementation of this policy by 2012. Content analysis was the method adopted by examining official documents and conducting semi-structured interviews. In a context of social transformation affected by environmental degradation and socio-environmental consequences there is a need for the cessation of inertia and a demand for new knowledge systems. The outcomes of the study showed a positive intersectorial dialectic relationship, since the research hypothesis was that the health sector would be called upon to back actions on air quality monitoring. Its verification showed a broad scope introducing health promotion and preventive actions as the determinant focus, especially influencing other public policies. Thus, the process under scrutiny acquired reflexivity when evolving with interactive measures breaking with the traditional sectorial and reductionist policy model. It shows an intersectorial perspective based on the importance of issues related to local public health.}, }
@article {pmid25271472, year = {2014}, author = {Birnbaum, LS and Tart, KT}, title = {Protecting our children from climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {122}, number = {10}, pages = {A260-1}, pmid = {25271472}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Asthma/prevention &amp; control ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Disasters/*prevention &amp; control ; *Environmental Health ; Food Supply ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25268907, year = {2014}, author = {Galbraith, H and DesRochers, DW and Brown, S and Reed, JM}, title = {Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {e108899}, pmid = {25268907}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Breeding ; Canada ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners-in-Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower-risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25268604, year = {2014}, author = {Kou, X and Li, Q and Beierkuhnlein, C and Zhao, Y and Liu, S}, title = {A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {e98643}, pmid = {25268604}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; Forestry/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Models, Statistical ; Plant Dispersal/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; Tracheophyta/*physiology ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.}, }
@article {pmid25265864, year = {2014}, author = {Roehr, B}, title = {China tells UN climate change talks it should still be treated as developing nation.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {349}, number = {}, pages = {g5925}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g5925}, pmid = {25265864}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*adverse effects ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; *United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid25264456, year = {2014}, author = {Lung, T and Meller, L and van Teeffelen, AJ and Thuiller, W and Cabeza, M}, title = {Biodiversity funds and conservation needs in the EU under climate change.}, journal = {Conservation letters}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {390-400}, pmid = {25264456}, issn = {1755-263X}, support = {281422/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {Despite ambitious biodiversity policy goals, less than a fifth of the European Union's (EU) legally protected species and habitats show a favorable conservation status. The recent EU biodiversity strategy recognizes that climate change adds to the challenge of halting biodiversity loss, and that an optimal distribution of financial resources is needed. Here, we analyze recent EU biodiversity funding from a climate change perspective. We compare the allocation of funds to the distribution of both current conservation priorities (within and beyond Natura 2000) and future conservation needs at the level of NUTS-2 regions, using modelled bird distributions as indicators of conservation value. We find that funding is reasonably well aligned with current conservation efforts but poorly fit with future needs under climate change, indicating obstacles for implementing adaptation measures. We suggest revising EU biodiversity funding instruments for the 2014-2020 budget period to better account for potential climate change impacts on biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid25263856, year = {2015}, author = {Stanton, JC and Shoemaker, KT and Pearson, RG and Akçakaya, HR}, title = {Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {1066-1077}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12721}, pmid = {25263856}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Amphibians/*physiology ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Extinction, Biological ; Reptiles/*physiology ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate-vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche-demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100-year trajectories for range-restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5-year, and 10-year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction risk under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25262551, year = {2014}, author = {Ritson, JP and Bell, M and Graham, NJ and Templeton, MR and Brazier, RE and Verhoef, A and Freeman, C and Clark, JM}, title = {Simulated climate change impact on summer dissolved organic carbon release from peat and surface vegetation: implications for drinking water treatment.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {67}, number = {}, pages = {66-76}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2014.09.015}, pmid = {25262551}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Acetonitriles/metabolism ; Calluna/*chemistry ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Chloroform/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Drinking Water/*chemistry ; Fluorescence ; Seasons ; Soil/*chemistry ; Sphagnopsida/*chemistry ; Water Purification/*methods ; }, abstract = {Uncertainty regarding changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality has created interest in managing peatlands for their ecosystem services such as drinking water provision. The evidence base for such interventions is, however, sometimes contradictory. We performed a laboratory climate manipulation using a factorial design on two dominant peatland vegetation types (Calluna vulgaris and Sphagnum Spp.) and a peat soil collected from a drinking water catchment in Exmoor National Park, UK. Temperature and rainfall were set to represent baseline and future conditions under the UKCP09 2080s high emissions scenario for July and August. DOC leachate then underwent standard water treatment of coagulation/flocculation before chlorination. C. vulgaris leached more DOC than Sphagnum Spp. (7.17 versus 3.00 mg g(-1)) with higher specific ultraviolet (SUVA) values and a greater sensitivity to climate, leaching more DOC under simulated future conditions. The peat soil leached less DOC (0.37 mg g(-1)) than the vegetation and was less sensitive to climate. Differences in coagulation removal efficiency between the DOC sources appears to be driven by relative solubilisation of protein-like DOC, observed through the fluorescence peak C/T. Post-coagulation only differences between vegetation types were detected for the regulated disinfection by-products (DBPs), suggesting climate change influence at this scale can be removed via coagulation. Our results suggest current biodiversity restoration programmes to encourage Sphagnum Spp. will result in lower DOC concentrations and SUVA values, particularly with warmer and drier summers.}, }
@article {pmid25253462, year = {2014}, author = {Brown, CD and Vellend, M}, title = {Non-climatic constraints on upper elevational plant range expansion under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {281}, number = {1794}, pages = {20141779}, pmid = {25253462}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Acer/*growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Germination/*physiology ; Seeds ; Soil ; }, abstract = {We are limited in our ability to predict climate-change-induced range shifts by our inadequate understanding of how non-climatic factors contribute to determining range limits along putatively climatic gradients. Here, we present a unique combination of observations and experiments demonstrating that seed predation and soil properties strongly limit regeneration beyond the upper elevational range limit of sugar maple, a tree species of major economic importance. Most strikingly, regeneration beyond the range limit occurred almost exclusively when seeds were experimentally protected from predators. Regeneration from seed was depressed on soil from beyond the range edge when this soil was transplanted to sites within the range, with indirect evidence suggesting that fungal pathogens play a role. Non-climatic factors are clearly in need of careful attention when attempting to predict the biotic consequences of climate change. At minimum, we can expect non-climatic factors to create substantial time lags between the creation of more favourable climatic conditions and range expansion.}, }
@article {pmid25252835, year = {2014}, author = {Storlie, C and Merino-Viteri, A and Phillips, B and VanDerWal, J and Welbergen, J and Williams, S}, title = {Stepping inside the niche: microclimate data are critical for accurate assessment of species' vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {}, pmid = {25252835}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animals ; Anura/*physiology ; Australia ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Hot Temperature ; *Microclimate ; }, abstract = {To assess a species' vulnerability to climate change, we commonly use mapped environmental data that are coarsely resolved in time and space. Coarsely resolved temperature data are typically inaccurate at predicting temperatures in microhabitats used by an organism and may also exhibit spatial bias in topographically complex areas. One consequence of these inaccuracies is that coarsely resolved layers may predict thermal regimes at a site that exceed species' known thermal limits. In this study, we use statistical downscaling to account for environmental factors and develop high-resolution estimates of daily maximum temperatures for a 36 000 km(2) study area over a 38-year period. We then demonstrate that this statistical downscaling provides temperature estimates that consistently place focal species within their fundamental thermal niche, whereas coarsely resolved layers do not. Our results highlight the need for incorporation of fine-scale weather data into species' vulnerability analyses and demonstrate that a statistical downscaling approach can yield biologically relevant estimates of thermal regimes.}, }
@article {pmid25247057, year = {2014}, author = {Virkkala, R and Pöyry, J and Heikkinen, RK and Lehikoinen, A and Valkama, J}, title = {Protected areas alleviate climate change effects on northern bird species of conservation concern.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {15}, pages = {2991-3003}, pmid = {25247057}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, posing increasing pressures on species to adapt in situ or shift their ranges. A protected area network is one of the main instruments to alleviate the negative impacts of climate change. Importantly, protected area networks might be expected to enhance the resilience of regional populations of species of conservation concern, resulting in slower species loss in landscapes with a significant amount of protected habitat compared to unprotected landscapes. Based on national bird atlases compiled in 1974-1989 and 2006-2010, this study examines the recent range shifts in 90 forest, mire, marshland, and Arctic mountain heath bird species of conservation concern in Finland, as well as the changes in their species richness in protected versus unprotected areas. The trends emerging from the atlas data comparisons were also related to the earlier study dealing with predictions of distributional changes for these species for the time slice of 2051-2080, developed using bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). Our results suggest that the observed changes in bird distributions are in the same direction as the BEM-based predictions, resulting in a decrease in species richness of mire and Arctic mountain heath species and an increase in marshland species. The patterns of changes in species richness between the two time slices are in general parallel in protected and unprotected areas. However, importantly, protected areas maintained a higher level of species richness than unprotected areas. This finding provides support for the significance and resilience provision of protected area networks in preserving species of conservation concern under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25246072, year = {2014}, author = {Seth, CS and Misra, V}, title = {Changes in C-N metabolism under elevated CO2 and temperature in Indian mustard (Brassica juncea L.): an adaptation strategy under climate change scenario.}, journal = {Journal of plant research}, volume = {127}, number = {6}, pages = {793-802}, pmid = {25246072}, issn = {1618-0860}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Mustard Plant/enzymology/*growth &amp; development ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Plant Proteins/*genetics/metabolism ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The present study was performed to investigate the possible role of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) metabolism in adaptation of Indian mustard (Brassica juncea L.) growing under ambient (370 ± 15 ppm) and elevated CO2 (700 ± 15 ppm), and jointly in elevated CO2 and temperature (30/22 °C for day/night). The key enzymes responsible for C-N metabolism were studied in different samples of Brassica juncea L. collected from ambient (AMB), elevated (ELE) and ELExT growth conditions. Total percent amount of C and N in leaves were particularly estimated to establish a clear understanding of aforesaid metabolism in plant adaptation. Furthermore, key morphological and physiological parameters such as plant height, leaf area index, dry biomass, net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration, total protein and chlorophyll contents were also studied in relation to C/N metabolism. The results indicated that the C-metabolizing enzymes, such as (ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase, phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase, malate dehydrogenase, NAD-malic enzyme, NADP-malic enzyme and citrate synthase) and the N-metabolizing enzymes, such as (aspartate amino transferase, glutamine synthetase, nitrate reductase and nitrite reductase) showed significantly (P < 0.05) higher activities along with the aforesaid physiological and biochemical parameters in order of ELE > ELExT > AMB growth conditions. This is also evident by significant (P < 0.05) increase in percent contents of C and N in leaves as per said order. These findings suggested that improved performance of C-N metabolism could be a possible approach for CO2 assimilation and adaptation in Brassica juncea L. against elevated CO2 and temperature prevailing in climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid25244362, year = {2014}, author = {Patz, JA and Frumkin, H and Holloway, T and Vimont, DJ and Haines, A}, title = {Climate change: challenges and opportunities for global health.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {312}, number = {15}, pages = {1565-1580}, pmid = {25244362}, issn = {1538-3598}, support = {P2C HD047873/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Food Supply ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; Health Policy ; Health Status ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {IMPORTANCE: Health is inextricably linked to climate change. It is important for clinicians to understand this relationship in order to discuss associated health risks with their patients and to inform public policy.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To provide new US-based temperature projections from downscaled climate modeling and to review recent studies on health risks related to climate change and the cobenefits of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.<br><br>We searched PubMed and Google Scholar from 2009 to 2014 for articles related to climate change and health, focused on governmental reports, predictive models, and empirical epidemiological studies. Of the more than 250 abstracts reviewed, 56 articles were selected. In addition, we analyzed climate data averaged over 13 climate models and based future projections on downscaled probability distributions of the daily maximum temperature for 2046-2065. We also compared maximum daily 8-hour average ozone with air temperature data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center.<br><br>RESULTS: By 2050, many US cities may experience more frequent extreme heat days. For example, New York and Milwaukee may have 3 times their current average number of days hotter than 32&#xb0;C (90&#xb0;F). High temperatures are also strongly associated with ozone exceedance days, for example, in Chicago, Illinois. The adverse health aspects related to climate change may include heat-related disorders, such as heat stress and economic consequences of reduced work capacity; respiratory disorders, including those exacerbated by air pollution and aeroallergens, such as asthma; infectious diseases, including vectorborne diseases and waterborne diseases, such as childhood gastrointestinal diseases; food insecurity, including reduced crop yields and an increase in plant diseases; and mental health disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder and depression, that are associated with natural disasters. Substantial health and economic cobenefits could be associated with reductions in fossil fuel combustion. For example, greenhouse gas emission policies may yield net economic benefit, with health benefits from air quality improvements potentially offsetting the cost of US and international carbon policies.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Evidence over the past 20 years indicates that climate change can be associated with adverse health outcomes. Health care professionals have an important role in understanding and communicating the related potential health concerns and the cobenefits from policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid25244258, year = {2014}, author = {Bauchner, H and Fontanarosa, PB}, title = {Climate change: a continuing threat to the health of the world's population.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {312}, number = {15}, pages = {1519}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2014.13094}, pmid = {25244258}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid25243206, year = {2014}, author = {Giang, PQ and Toshiki, K and Sakata, M and Kunikane, S and Vinh, TQ}, title = {Modelling climate change impacts on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in Southeast Asia.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {2014}, number = {}, pages = {279135}, pmid = {25243206}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Floods ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers ; *Seasons ; *Water Resources ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in mainland Southeast Asia was assessed using downscaled global climate models coupled with the SWAT model. The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years. The area could warm as much as 3.4(°)C in the 2090 s, with an increase of annual evapotranspiration of up to 23% in the same period. We found an increase in the seasonality of precipitation (both an increase in the wet season and a decrease in the dry season). The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s. As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s. This is expected to exacerbate the problem of seasonally uneven distribution of water resources: a large volume of water in the wet season and a scarcity of water in the dry season, a pattern that indicates the possibility of more frequent floods in the wet season and droughts in the dry season.}, }
@article {pmid25242348, year = {2014}, author = {Orkin, VL and Khamaganov, VG and Guschin, AG}, title = {Photochemical properties of hydrofluoroethers CH3OCHF2, CH3OCF3, and CHF2OCH2CF3: reactivity toward OH, IR absorption cross sections, atmospheric lifetimes, and global warming potentials.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {118}, number = {45}, pages = {10770-10777}, doi = {10.1021/jp506377w}, pmid = {25242348}, issn = {1520-5215}, abstract = {Rate constants for the gas phase reactions of OH radicals with three partially fluorinated ethers, CH3OCF3 (kHFE-143a), CH3OCHF2 (kHFE-152a), and CHF2OCH2CF3 (kHFE-245fa2), were measured using a discharge flow-electron paramagnetic resonance technique over the temperature range 298-460 K. The temperature dependences of the rate constants can be represented by the following expressions: kHFE-143a(T) = (1.10 ± 0.20) × 10(-12) × exp{-(1324 ± 61)/T} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1); kHFE-152a(T) = (11.6 ± 4.2) × 10(-12) × exp{-(1728 ± 133)/T} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1); and kHFE-245fa2(T) = (3.04 ± 0.57) × 10(-12) × exp{-(1665 ± 66)/T} cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The atmospheric lifetimes due to reactions with tropospheric OH were estimated to be 5.2, 1.9, and 5.6 years, respectively. The IR absorption cross sections of these fluorinated ethers were measured between 400 and 2000 cm(-1), and their global warming potentials were estimated.}, }
@article {pmid25242283, year = {2015}, author = {Matyssek, R and Kozovits, AR and Wieser, G}, title = {Vegetation response to climate change and air pollution - unifying research and evidence from northern and southern hemisphere.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {196}, number = {}, pages = {480-482}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2014.09.003}, pmid = {25242283}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; }, }
@article {pmid25241709, year = {2014}, author = {Haines, A and Ebi, KL and Smith, KR and Woodward, A}, title = {Health risks of climate change: act now or pay later.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {384}, number = {9948}, pages = {1073-1075}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61659-7}, pmid = {25241709}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*organization &amp; administration ; Global Health ; Humans ; Risk Assessment/organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid25241706, year = {2014}, author = {}, title = {Climate change and health--action please, not words.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {384}, number = {9948}, pages = {1071}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61656-1}, pmid = {25241706}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Environmental Health/*organization &amp; administration/standards ; Global Health/standards ; Humans ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid25240389, year = {2015}, author = {Huang, J and Ji, F}, title = {Effects of climate change on phenological trends and seed cotton yields in oasis of arid regions.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {59}, number = {7}, pages = {877-888}, pmid = {25240389}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; Gossypium/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Seeds/*growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding the effects of climatic change on phenological phases of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in oasis of arid regions may help optimize management schemes to increase productivity. This study assessed the impacts of climatic changes on the phenological phases and productivity of spring cotton. The results showed that climatic warming led the dates of sowing seed, seeding emergence, three-leaf, five-leaf, budding, anthesis, full bloom, cleft boll, boll-opening, boll-opening filling, and stop-growing become earlier by 24.42, 26.19, 24.75, 23.28, 22.62, 15.75, 14.58, 5.37, 2.85, 8.04, and 2.16 days during the period of 1981-2010, respectively. The growth period lengths from sowing seed to seeding emergence and from boll-opening to boll-opening filling were shortened by 1.76 and 5.19 days, respectively. The other growth period lengths were prolonged by 2-9.71 days. The whole growth period length was prolonged by 22.26 days. The stop-growing date was delayed by 2.49-3.46 days for every 1 °C rise in minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures; however, other development dates emerged earlier by 2.17-4.76 days. Rising temperatures during the stage from seeding emergence to three-leaf reduced seed cotton yields. However, rising temperatures increased seed cotton yields in the two stages from anthesis to cleft boll and from boll-opening filling to the stop-growing. Increasing accumulated temperatures (AT) had different impacts on different development stages. During the vegetative phase, rising AT led to reduced seed cotton yields, but rising AT during reproductive stage increased seed cotton yields. In conclusion, climatic warming helpfully obtained more seed cotton yields in oasis of arid regions in northwest China. Changing the sowing date is another way to enhance yields for climate change in the future.}, }
@article {pmid25240382, year = {2014}, author = {Williams, CR and Mincham, G and Ritchie, SA and Viennet, E and Harley, D}, title = {Bionomic response of Aedes aegypti to two future climate change scenarios in far north Queensland, Australia: implications for dengue outbreaks.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {447}, pmid = {25240382}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {Aedes/*physiology ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Dengue/epidemiology/*transmission/virology ; Dengue Virus/*physiology ; Disease Outbreaks/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecology ; Female ; Insect Vectors/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Queensland/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue viruses are transmitted by anthropophilic mosquitoes and infect approximately 50 million humans annually. To investigate impacts of future climate change on dengue virus transmission, we investigated bionomics of the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti.<br><br>METHODS: Using a dynamic life table simulation model (the Container inhabiting mosquito simulation CIMSiM) and statistically downscaled daily values for future climate, we assessed climate change induced changes to mosquito bionomics. Simulations of Ae. aegypti populations for current (1991-2011) and future climate (2046-2065) were conducted for the city of Cairns, Queensland, the population centre with most dengue virus transmission in Australia. Female mosquito abundance, wet weight, and the extrinsic incubation period for dengue virus in these mosquitoes were estimated for current and future climate (MPI ECHAM 5 model, B1 and A2 emission scenarios).<br><br>RESULTS: Overall mosquito abundance is predicted to change, but results were equivocal for different climate change scenarios. Aedes aegypti abundance is predicted to increase under the B1, but decrease under the A2 scenario. Mosquitoes are predicted to have a smaller body mass in a future climate. Shorter extrinsic incubation periods are projected.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: It is therefore unclear whether dengue risk would increase or decrease in tropical Australia with climate change. Our findings challenge the prevailing view that a future, warmer climate will lead to larger mosquito populations and a definite increase in dengue transmission. Whilst general predictions can be made about future mosquito borne disease incidence, cautious interpretation is necessary due to interaction between local environment, human behaviour and built environment, dengue virus, and vectors.}, }
@article {pmid25239518, year = {2015}, author = {Huang, J and Li, J}, title = {Effects of climate change on overwintering pupae of the cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {59}, number = {7}, pages = {863-876}, pmid = {25239518}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Air ; Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; *Moths ; *Pupa ; Seasons ; Snow ; Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change significantly affects insects' behaviors. Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious insect pests in the world. Much is known about the survival of the overwintering population and spring emergence of H. armigera. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on overwintering and spring emergence of H. armigera. This study investigated the effects of changes of air and soil temperatures and precipitation on overwintering pupae of H. armigera by analyzing historical data from Magaiti County in northwest China using statistical methods. The results showed that during the period of 1989-2006, the climate warming advanced the first-appearance date of overwintering pupae eclosion (FD) and end date of overwintering pupae eclosion (ED) by 1.276 and 0.193 days per year, respectively; the duration between the FD and ED (DFEPE) was prolonged by 1.09 days per year, which resulted in more eclosion of overwintering pupae. For a 1 °C increase in the maximum air temperature (Tmax) in winter, the FD became earlier by 3.234 days. Precipitation in winter delayed the FD and ED and produced little relative influence on DFEPE. A 1-mm increase of precipitation in winter delayed the FD and ED by 0.850 and 0.494 days, respectively. Mean air temperature (Tmean) in March, with a 41.3% relative influence, precipitation in winter, with a 49.0% relative influence, and T mean in March, with a 37.5% relative influence, were the major affecting factors on FD, ED, and DFEPE, respectively. T max in February with a 53.0% relative influence was the major affecting factor on the mortality of overwintering pupae (MOP). Increased soil temperatures in October and November and autumn and air temperatures in winter could decrease the MOP, though the relative influences were lower than T max in February. Increased precipitation in winter increased the MOP, but the relative influence was only 4.2% because of little precipitation. T mean in October had the greatest influence on the pre-wintering density of pupae (PDP). Increasing soil temperatures in October, November, and autumn increased PDP. A higher PDP increased overwintering survival and advanced FD and prolonged DFEPE. The overwintering boundary air temperatures of H. armigera should be expanded due to higher soil temperature and snow covering. Thus, climate warming helped to enhance the survival of overwintering pupae.}, }
@article {pmid25238981, year = {2015}, author = {Jönsson, AM and Anderbrant, O and Holmér, J and Johansson, J and Schurgers, G and Svensson, GP and Smith, HG}, title = {Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44}, number = {3}, pages = {249-255}, pmid = {25238981}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Forestry ; *Information Dissemination ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.}, }
@article {pmid25237100, year = {2014}, author = {Black, BA and Sydeman, WJ and Frank, DC and Griffin, D and Stahle, DW and García-Reyes, M and Rykaczewski, RR and Bograd, SJ and Peterson, WT}, title = {Climate change. Six centuries of variability and extremes in a coupled marine-terrestrial ecosystem.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {345}, number = {6203}, pages = {1498-1502}, doi = {10.1126/science.1253209}, pmid = {25237100}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aquatic Organisms ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; *Oceans and Seas ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Reported trends in the mean and variability of coastal upwelling in eastern boundary currents have raised concerns about the future of these highly productive and biodiverse marine ecosystems. However, the instrumental records on which these estimates are based are insufficiently long to determine whether such trends exceed preindustrial limits. In the California Current, a 576-year reconstruction of climate variables associated with winter upwelling indicates that variability increased over the latter 20th century to levels equaled only twice during the past 600 years. This modern trend in variance may be unique, because it appears to be driven by an unprecedented succession of extreme, downwelling-favorable, winter climate conditions that profoundly reduce productivity for marine predators of commercial and conservation interest.}, }
@article {pmid25236841, year = {2014}, author = {Paiva, SL and Savi, MA and Viola, FM and Leiroz, AJ}, title = {Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.}, journal = {Bio Systems}, volume = {125}, number = {}, pages = {1-15}, doi = {10.1016/j.biosystems.2014.09.008}, pmid = {25236841}, issn = {1872-8324}, mesh = {*Carbon Cycle ; Computer Simulation ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Population Dynamics ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon.}, }
@article {pmid25236612, year = {2015}, author = {Garris, HW and Mitchell, RJ and Fraser, LH and Barrett, LR}, title = {Forecasting climate change impacts on the distribution of wetland habitat in the Midwestern United states.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {766-776}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12748}, pmid = {25236612}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forecasting ; Midwestern United States ; Models, Theoretical ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Shifting precipitation patterns brought on by climate change threaten to alter the future distribution of wetlands. We developed a set of models to understand the role climate plays in determining wetland formation on a landscape scale and to forecast changes in wetland distribution for the Midwestern United States. These models combined 35 climate variables with 21 geographic and anthropogenic factors thought to encapsulate other major drivers of wetland distribution for the Midwest. All models successfully recreated a majority of the variation in current wetland area within the Midwest, and showed that wetland area was significantly associated with climate, even when controlling for landscape context. Inferential (linear) models identified a consistent negative association between wetland area and isothermality. This is likely the result of regular inundation in areas where precipitation accumulates as snow, then melts faster than drainage capacity. Moisture index seasonality was identified as a key factor distinguishing between emergent and forested wetland types, where forested wetland area at the landscape scale is associated with a greater seasonal variation in water table depth. Forecasting models (neural networks) predicted an increase in potential wetland area in the coming century, with areas conducive to forested wetland formation expanding more rapidly than areas conducive to emergent wetlands. Local cluster analyses identified Iowa and Northeastern Missouri as areas of anticipated wetland expansion, indicating both a risk to crop production within the Midwest Corn Belt and an opportunity for wetland conservation, while Northern Minnesota and Michigan are potentially at risk of wetland losses under a future climate.}, }
@article {pmid25230542, year = {2014}, author = {El Zoghbi, MB and El Ansari, W}, title = {University students as recipients of and contributors to information on climate change: insights from South Africa and implications for well-being.}, journal = {Central European journal of public health}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {125-132}, doi = {10.21101/cejph.a3999}, pmid = {25230542}, issn = {1210-7778}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; Cooperative Behavior ; Female ; Focus Groups ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Language ; Leadership ; Male ; Socioeconomic Factors ; South Africa ; Students/*psychology ; *Universities ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {AIMS: This study aimed to enhance the in-depth understanding of the contextual dimensions that shape the relationships between climate change communication approach and youth well-being. The study focused on university students who constitute the key stakeholders and future decision-makers and leaders for managing the long-term climate risks.<br><br>METHODS: A total of 10 focus group interviews were conducted with 117 undergraduate and graduate South African university students from over 12 universities located in different provinces of South Africa. In addition, another 16 interviews were also undertaken with university students, 10 interviews with key experts, and 3 youth national events were attended as participant-observation.<br><br>RESULTS: As recipients of information on climate change, students' well-being was negatively affected by the media's pessimism of communicating risks and the inadequate or restricted networking of communicating solutions and strategies. As contributors to information on climate change, students faced key barriers to their efficacy and agency that entailed socio-cultural inequalities (e.g. race and language) and a lack of formal forums for community recognition, policy consultation and collaboration. In addition, for some students (e.g. journalism students), the lack of sufficient knowledge and skills on climate change and sustainability issues limited their ability to effectively communicate these issues to their audience.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Platforms for interactive and reflective discussions, access to innovative technologies and social media, and opportunities for multi-stakeholder partnerships are keys to the success of youth-targeted and youth-initiated communication on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25230541, year = {2014}, author = {El Zoghbi, MB and El Ansari, W}, title = {Ethical concerns and contributions in response to climate change and the links to well-being: a study of university students in The Netherlands.}, journal = {Central European journal of public health}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {118-124}, doi = {10.21101/cejph.a3998}, pmid = {25230541}, issn = {1210-7778}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Focus Groups ; Global Health ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Male ; Netherlands ; Residence Characteristics ; Students/*psychology ; *Universities ; }, abstract = {AIMS: This study explored the concerns and contributions of university students in response to the ethical dimensions of climate change, and the implications for their well-being. The study focused on university students as leaders of future society while facing complex environmental and socio-economic challenges.<br><br>METHODS: A total of 8 focus groups (FG) were conducted (66 participants from over 10 different universities across The Netherlands). In addition, 9 in-depth interviews with Dutch university students from different academic backgrounds, and 16 interviews with Dutch key informants in the environment, youth and public health fields were undertaken. The first author also attended (as participant-observer) three major events themed around youth and environmental issues across different regions in The Netherlands.<br><br>RESULTS: University students in the Netherlands are mostly concerned about the increasing social and economic inequalities between the global North and South, and the implications for impoverished and uneducated communities. Participants raised concerns over the transfer of materialistic value systems and unsustainable practices from developed to developing countries. The participants' main contributions in response to climate change were largely driven by feelings of guilt and responsibility, an ecological worldview, and desire to play a positive role in society.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Establishing formal youth platforms across academic, civic and political institutions could provide legitimate and empowering opportunities for university students to participate in consultations and debates of future environmental policies and development strategies. Such platforms could enhance the agency and well-being of university students for addressing their concerns over existing climate inequalities and other ethical dilemmas.}, }
@article {pmid25230463, year = {2014}, author = {Ye, JS and Reynolds, JF and Li, FM}, title = {A mechanistic-bioclimatic modeling analysis of the potential impact of climate change on biomes of the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {95}, number = {8}, pages = {2109-2120}, doi = {10.1890/13-1014.1}, pmid = {25230463}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is experiencing high rates of climatic change. We present a novel combined mechanistic-bioclimatic modeling approach to determine how changes in precipitation and temperature on the TP may impact net primary production (NPP) in four major biomes (forest, shrub, grass, desert) and if there exists a maximum rain use efficiency (RUE(MAX)) that represents Huxman et al.'s "boundary that constrain[s] site-level productivity and efficiency." We used a daily mechanistic ecosystem model to generate 40-yr outputs using observed climatic data for scenarios of decreased precipitation (25-100%); increased air temperature (1 degrees - 6 degrees C); simultaneous changes in both precipitation (+/- 50%, +/- 25%) and air temperature (+1 to +6 degrees C) and increased interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation (+1 sigma to +3 sigma, with fixed means, where sigma is SD). We fitted model output from these scenarios to Huxman et al.'s RUE(MAX) bioclimatic model, NPP = alpha + RUE x PPT (where alpha is the intercept, RUE is rain use efficiency, and PPT is annual precipitation). Based on these analyses, we conclude that there is strong support (when not explicit, then trend-wise) for Huxman et al.'s assertion that biomes converge to a common RUE(MAX) during the driest years at a site, thus representing the boundary for highest rain use efficiency; the interactive effects of simultaneously decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature on NPP for the TP is smaller than might be expected from additive, single-factor changes in these drivers; and that increasing IAV of precipitation may ultimately have a larger impact on biomes of the Tibetan Plateau than changing amounts of rainfall and air temperature alone.}, }
@article {pmid25230362, year = {2015}, author = {Moore, JD and Ouellet, M}, title = {Questioning the use of an amphibian colour morph as an indicator of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {566-571}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12744}, pmid = {25230362}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; *Pigmentation ; United States ; Urodela/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The effects of recent climate changes on earth ecosystems are likely among the most important ecological concerns in human history. Good bioindicators are essential to properly assess the magnitude of these changes. In the last decades, studies have suggested that the morph proportion of the eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus), one of the most widely distributed and abundant vertebrate species in forests of eastern North America, could be used as a proxy for monitoring climate changes. Based on new discoveries in the northern areas of the species' range and on one of the largest compilation ever made for a vertebrate in North America (236 109 observations compiled from 1880 to 2013 in 1148 localities), we demonstrate however that climatic and geographic variables do not influence the colour morph proportions in P. cinereus populations. Consequently, we show that the use of colour morph proportions of this species do not perform as an indicator of climate change. Our findings indicate that bioindicator paradigms can be significantly challenged by new ecological research and more representative databases.}, }
@article {pmid25229697, year = {2014}, author = {Brown, H and Spickett, J}, title = {Health consequence scales for use in health impact assessments of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {9}, pages = {9607-9620}, pmid = {25229697}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {While health impact assessment (HIA) has typically been applied to projects, plans or policies, it has significant potential with regard to strategic considerations of major health issues facing society such as climate change. Given the complexity of climate change, assessing health impacts presents new challenges that may require different approaches compared to traditional applications of HIA. This research focuses on the development of health consequence scales suited to assessing and comparing health effects associated with climate change and applied within a HIA framework. This assists in setting priorities for adaptation plans to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. The scales presented in this paper were initially developed for a HIA of climate change in Perth in 2050, but they can be applied across spatial and temporal scales. The design is based on a health effects pyramid with health measures expressed in orders of magnitude and linked to baseline population and health data. The health consequence measures are combined with a measure of likelihood to determine the level of risk associated with each health potential health impact. In addition, a simple visual framework that can be used to collate, compare and communicate the level of health risks associated with climate change has been developed.}, }
@article {pmid25229634, year = {2014}, author = {Zabel, F and Putzenlechner, B and Mauser, W}, title = {Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {e107522}, pmid = {25229634}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, abstract = {Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010), considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia). Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.}, }
@article {pmid25229422, year = {2014}, author = {Ferro, VG and Lemes, P and Melo, AS and Loyola, R}, title = {The reduced effectiveness of protected areas under climate change threatens Atlantic forest tiger moths.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {e107792}, pmid = {25229422}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Machine Learning ; *Moths ; Terminology as Topic ; }, abstract = {Climate change leads to species' range shifts, which may end up reducing the effectiveness of protected areas. These deleterious changes in biodiversity may become amplified if they include functionally important species, such as herbivores or pollinators. We evaluated how effective protected areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are in maintaining the diversity of tiger moths (Arctiinae) under climate change. Specifically, we assessed whether protected areas will gain or lose species under climate change and mapped their locations in the Atlantic Forest, in order to assess potential spatial patterns of protected areas that will gain or lose species richness. Comparisons were completed using modeled species occurrence data based on the current and projected climate in 2080. We also built a null model for random allocation of protected areas to identify where reductions in species richness will be more severe than expected. We employed several modern techniques for modeling species' distributions and summarized results using ensembles of models. Our models indicate areas of high species richness in the central and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest both for now and the future. However, we estimate that in 2080 these regions should become climatically unsuitable, decreasing the species' distribution area. Around 4% of species were predicted to become extinct, some of them being endemic to the biome. Estimates of species turnover from current to future climate tended to be high, but these findings are dependent on modeling methods. Our most important results show that only a few protected areas in the southern region of the biome would gain species. Protected areas in semideciduous forests in the western region of the biome would lose more species than expected by the null model employed. Hence, current protected areas are worse off, than just randomly selected areas, at protecting species in the future.}, }
@article {pmid25227958, year = {2014}, author = {Kandarr, J and Reckert, H and Mücke, HG}, title = {[Adaptation to climate change-associated health risks as a task of environmental health protection. Analysis of a nationwide investigation by the Federal Environment Agency].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {57}, number = {10}, pages = {1209-1215}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-014-2056-7}, pmid = {25227958}, issn = {1437-1588}, mesh = {Ambrosia ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Comorbidity ; Environmental Exposure/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Federal Government ; Germany/epidemiology ; Health Plan Implementation/*organization &amp; administration ; Health Policy ; Health Promotion ; Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Population Surveillance/methods ; Prevalence ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Risk Management/methods ; Sunburn/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {The German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (DAS, 2008) identified 'human health' as an important sector with a need for adaptation. In line with the DAS, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) and the Robert Koch Institute jointly elaborated guidelines for decision makers and stakeholders. Building on these, in 2013/2014, UBA has conducted a nationwide survey, collecting data on completed, ongoing and planned adaptation measures. UBA also analysed 32 adaptation strategies of the Federal States. Selected best practice examples of potential health-related prevention and adaptation measures concerning heat stress, UV radiation exposure and the spread of Ambrosia artemisiifolia are presented in this article. The data collection with more than 330 activities can be found on the website of the German National Environment and Health Action Plan (APUG; www.apug.de , in German only). In the course of this project, the APUG website was also significantly extended with comprehensive information and overviews on health risks of climate change, hence creating a central platform for this particular topic.}, }
@article {pmid25226855, year = {2014}, author = {Fukuda, M and Fukuda, K and Shimizu, T and Nobunaga, M and Mamsen, LS and Yding Andersen, C}, title = {Climate change is associated with male:female ratios of fetal deaths and newborn infants in Japan.}, journal = {Fertility and sterility}, volume = {102}, number = {5}, pages = {1364-1370.e2}, doi = {10.1016/j.fertnstert.2014.07.1213}, pmid = {25226855}, issn = {1556-5653}, mesh = {Abortion, Spontaneous/*mortality ; Climate Change/*mortality/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Cohort Studies ; Female ; *Fetal Mortality ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Japan/epidemiology ; Male ; *Perinatal Mortality ; Pregnancy ; Risk Factors ; *Sex Ratio ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether climate change is associated with male:female ratios (sex ratios) of fetal deaths and births in Japan.<br><br>DESIGN: A population-based cohort study.<br><br>SETTING: Not applicable.<br><br>PATIENT(S): Newborn infants and fetuses spontaneously aborted after 12&#xa0;weeks of gestation.<br><br>INTERVENTION(S): None.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Yearly sex ratios of fetal deaths and newborn infants and monthly fetal death rates and sex ratios of newborn infants.<br><br>RESULT(S): A statistically significant positive association was found between yearly temperature differences and sex ratios of fetal deaths; a statistically significant negative association was found between temperature differences and sex ratios of newborn infants from 1968 to 2012, and between sex ratios of births and of fetal deaths. The sex ratios of fetal deaths have been increasing steadily along with temperature differences, whereas the sex ratios of newborn infants have been decreasing since the 1970s. Two climate extremes, a very hot summer in 2010 and a very cold winter in January 2011, showed not only statistically significant declines in sex ratios of newborn infants 9&#xa0;months later in June 2011 and October 2011 but also statistically significant increases of fetal death rates immediately, in September 2010 and January&#xa0;2011.<br><br>CONCLUSION(S): The recent temperature fluctuations in Japan seem to be linked to a lower male:female sex ratio of newborn infants, partly via increased male fetal deaths. Male concepti seem to be especially vulnerable to external stress factors, including climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid25226222, year = {2014}, author = {Kim, KH and Kabir, E and Ara Jahan, S}, title = {A review of the consequences of global climate change on human health.}, journal = {Journal of environmental science and health. Part C, Environmental carcinogenesis &amp; ecotoxicology reviews}, volume = {32}, number = {3}, pages = {299-318}, doi = {10.1080/10590501.2014.941279}, pmid = {25226222}, issn = {1532-4095}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; *Environmental Exposure ; Environmental Policy ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change has been significant enough to endanger human health both directly and indirectly via heat stress, degraded air quality, rising sea levels, food and water security, extreme weather events (e.g., floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc.), vulnerable shelter, and population migration. The deterioration of environmental conditions may facilitate the transmission of diarrhea, vector-borne and infectious diseases, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, malnutrition, etc. Indirect effects of climate change such as mental health problems due to stress, loss of homes, economic instability, and forced migration are also unignorably important. Children, the elderly, and communities living in poverty are among the most vulnerable of the harmful effects due to climate change. In this article, we have reviewed the scientific evidence for the human health impact of climate change and analyzed the various diseases in association with changes in the atmospheric environment and climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid25225405, year = {2014}, author = {Chaboureau, AC and Sepulchre, P and Donnadieu, Y and Franc, A}, title = {Tectonic-driven climate change and the diversification of angiosperms.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {39}, pages = {14066-14070}, pmid = {25225405}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fossils ; Genetic Speciation ; Genetic Variation ; History, Ancient ; *Magnoliopsida/classification/genetics ; Models, Biological ; Paleontology ; }, abstract = {In 1879, Charles Darwin characterized the sudden and unexplained rise of angiosperms during the Cretaceous as an "abominable mystery." The diversification of this clade marked the beginning of a rapid transition among Mesozoic ecosystems and floras formerly dominated by ferns, conifers, and cycads. Although the role of environmental factors has been suggested [Coiffard C, Gómez B (2012) Geol Acta 10(2):181-188], Cretaceous global climate change has barely been considered as a contributor to angiosperm radiation, and focus was put on biotic factors to explain this transition. Here we use a fully coupled climate model driven by Mesozoic paleogeographic maps to quantify and discuss the impact of continental drift on angiosperm expansion and diversification. We show that the decrease of desertic belts between the Triassic and the Cretaceous and the subsequent onset of long-lasting humid conditions during the Late Cretaceous were driven by the breakup of Pangea and were contemporaneous with the first rise of angiosperm diversification. Positioning angiosperm-bearing fossil sites on our paleobioclimatic maps shows a strong match between the location of fossil-rich outcrops and temperate humid zones, indicating that climate change from arid to temperate dominance may have set the stage for the ecological expansion of flowering plants.}, }
@article {pmid25225382, year = {2014}, author = {Lamarque, P and Lavorel, S and Mouchet, M and Quétier, F}, title = {Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {38}, pages = {13751-13756}, pmid = {25225382}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Grassland ; *Models, Biological ; Plant Development/*physiology ; Plants/*genetics ; *Quantitative Trait, Heritable ; }, abstract = {Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers' adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs.}, }
@article {pmid25225116, year = {2015}, author = {Rossi, S}, title = {Local adaptations and climate change: converging sensitivity of bud break in black spruce provenances.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {59}, number = {7}, pages = {827-835}, pmid = {25225116}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Photoperiod ; Picea/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Seedlings/growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Species with transcontinental distribution or spread over wide geographical regions develop populations with growth traits genetically adapted to the local climate. The aim of this study was to investigate the ecotypic sensitivity of bud break, a strong adaptive trait, to a changing environment. Six phenological phases of bud break were monitored daily on black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] seedlings submitted to different temperatures (12, 16 and 20 °C) and photoperiods (14, 18 and 22 h). Six provenances were tested in growth chambers, produced from seeds collected along the whole latitudinal range of the closed boreal forest in Quebec, Canada. Bud break lasted 13.3 days on average and occurred earlier in seedlings from colder sites. The annual temperature of the sites suitably tracked the clinal variation among ecotypes, providing a clear biological explanation for the environmental signal driving the adaptive divergence of populations to the local climate. Increasing temperature induced an earlier bud break according to a non-linear pattern with greater advancements observed between 12 and 16 °C. Photoperiod was significant, but sensitivity analysis indicated that its effect on bud break was marginal with respect to temperature. No interaction of provenance × treatment was observed, demonstrating an ecotypic convergence of the responses to both factors. Changes in the growing conditions could substantially modify the synchronization between bud phenology and climate, thus exposing the developing meristems of black spruce to frost damage. However, similar advancements of bud break could be expected in the different ecotypes subjected to warmer temperatures or longer day lengths.}, }
@article {pmid25224904, year = {2016}, author = {Bellamy, R and Chilvers, J and Vaughan, NE}, title = {Deliberative Mapping of options for tackling climate change: Citizens and specialists 'open up' appraisal of geoengineering.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {269-286}, pmid = {25224904}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Community Participation ; Decision Making ; Engineering/*methods ; England ; *Geographic Mapping ; }, abstract = {Appraisals of deliberate, large-scale interventions in the earth's climate system, known collectively as 'geoengineering', have largely taken the form of narrowly framed and exclusive expert analyses that prematurely 'close down' upon particular proposals. Here, we present the findings from the first 'upstream' appraisal of geoengineering to deliberately 'open up' to a broader diversity of framings, knowledges and future pathways. We report on the citizen strand of an innovative analytic-deliberative participatory appraisal process called Deliberative Mapping. A select but diverse group of sociodemographically representative citizens from Norfolk (United Kingdom) were engaged in a deliberative multi-criteria appraisal of geoengineering proposals relative to other options for tackling climate change, in parallel to symmetrical appraisals by diverse experts and stakeholders. Despite seeking to map divergent perspectives, a remarkably consistent view of option performance emerged across both the citizens' and the specialists' deliberations, where geoengineering proposals were outperformed by mitigation alternatives.}, }
@article {pmid25224271, year = {2015}, author = {Luo, Z and Zhou, S and Yu, W and Yu, H and Yang, J and Tian, Y and Zhao, M and Wu, H}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Shennongjia area, China.}, journal = {American journal of primatology}, volume = {77}, number = {2}, pages = {135-151}, doi = {10.1002/ajp.22317}, pmid = {25224271}, issn = {1098-2345}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; Colobinae/*physiology ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Geography ; Human Activities ; }, abstract = {Understanding the effects of climate change on primate ranging patterns is crucial for conservation planning. Rhinopithecus roxellana is an endangered primate species distributed in mountainous forests at the elevation of 1500-3500 m a.s.l. in China. Our study site, the Shennongjia National Nature Reserve, represents the eastern-most distribution of this species. This area has experienced significant habitat loss and fragmentation because of human population growth, increased farming and logging, and climate change. To estimate how changes in temperature and rainfall will affect the presumed future distribution of this species, we examined eco-geographic factors including bioclimate, habitat (vegetation type, landcover, etc.), topography, and human impact (human population, gross domestic product, etc.), and provide suggestions for management and conservation. We used a maximum entropy approach to predict the location and distribution of habitats suitable for R. roxellana in the present, 2020, 2050, and 2080 based on 33 environmental parameters, three general circulation models, three emissions scenarios, and two dispersal hypotheses. According to the ensemble modeling, we found range reductions of almost 30% by 2020, 70% by 2050, and over 80% by 2080. Although no obvious differences were found in distribution change based on full and zero dispersal assumptions, our results revealed range reductions in response to elevational, latitudinal, and longitudinal gradients, with the monkeys forced to migrate to higher elevations over time. Bioclimte factors, such as temperature, precipitation, evapo-transpiration, and aridity condition, were dominant contributors to range shifting. As habitat loss due to human influence and climate change is likely to be even more severe in the future, we considered three conservation hot-spots in the Shennongjia area and recommended: (i) securing existing reserves and establishing new reserves, (ii) re-designing management systems to include the Shenongjia reserve and the surrounding reserves and highlighting ecosystem protection at higher elevations, and (iii) using finer-scale research to guide the conservation planning and education in order to enhance protection and awareness in the local community. National and provincial conservation policies should integrate projections of climate change in making effective conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid25222967, year = {2014}, author = {Vardoulakis, S and Dear, K and Hajat, S and Heaviside, C and Eggen, B and McMichael, AJ}, title = {Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {122}, number = {12}, pages = {1285-1292}, pmid = {25222967}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Australia/epidemiology ; Cause of Death/trends ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature/*adverse effects ; Female ; Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature-related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century because of climate change.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We compared mortality associated with heat and cold in UK regions and Australian cities for current and projected climates and populations.<br><br>METHODS: Time-series regression analyses were carried out on daily mortality in relation to ambient temperatures for UK regions and Australian cities to estimate relative risk functions for heat and cold and variations in risk parameters by age. Excess deaths due to heat and cold were estimated for future climates.<br><br>RESULTS: In UK regions, cold-related mortality currently accounts for more than one order of magnitude more deaths than heat-related mortality (around 61 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively). In Australian cities, approximately 33 and 2 deaths per 100,000 population are associated every year with cold and heat, respectively. Although cold-related mortality is projected to decrease due to climate change to approximately 42 and 19 deaths per 100,000 population per year in UK regions and Australian cities, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to around 9 and 8 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively, by the 2080s, assuming no changes in susceptibility and structure of the population.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also to a decrease in cold-related deaths. Future temperature-related mortality will be amplified by aging populations. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in both countries, while protection from cold weather will be still needed.}, }
@article {pmid25218492, year = {2015}, author = {Lau, KK and Lindberg, F and Rayner, D and Thorsson, S}, title = {The effect of urban geometry on mean radiant temperature under future climate change: a study of three European cities.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {59}, number = {7}, pages = {799-814}, pmid = {25218492}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Cities/epidemiology ; *City Planning ; *Climate Change ; *Environment Design ; Germany/epidemiology ; Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology ; Humans ; Humidity ; Models, Theoretical ; Portugal/epidemiology ; Sunlight ; Sweden/epidemiology ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Future anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase the air temperature (T(a)) across Europe and increase the frequency, duration and magnitude of severe heat stress events. Heat stress events are generally associated with clear-sky conditions and high T(a), which give rise to high radiant heat load, i.e. mean radiant temperature (T(mrt)). In urban environments, T mrt is strongly influenced by urban geometry. The present study examines the effect of urban geometry on daytime heat stress in three European cities (Gothenburg in Sweden, Frankfurt in Germany and Porto in Portugal) under present and future climates, using T(mrt) as an indicator of heat stress. It is found that severe heat stress occurs in all three cities. Similar maximum daytime T(mrt) is found in open areas in all three cities despite of the latitudinal differences in average daytime T(mrt). In contrast, dense urban structures like narrow street canyons are able to mitigate heat stress in the summer, without causing substantial changes in T(mrt) in the winter. Although the T(mrt) averages are similar for the north-south and east-west street canyons in each city, the number of hours when T(mrt) exceeds the threshold values of 55.5 and 59.4 °C-used as indicators of moderate and severe heat stress-in the north-south canyons is much higher than that in the east-west canyons. Using statistically downscaled data from a regional climate model, it is found that the study sites were generally warmer in the future scenario, especially Porto, which would further exacerbate heat stress in urban areas. However, a decrease in solar radiation in Gothenburg and Frankfurt reduces T(mrt) in the spring, while the reduction in T(mrt) is somewhat offset by increasing T(a) in other seasons. It suggests that changes in the T(mrt) under the future scenario are dominated by variations in T(a). Nonetheless, the intra-urban differences remain relatively stable in the future. These findings suggest that dense urban structure can reduce daytime heat stress since it reduces the number of hours of high T(mrt) in the summer and does not cause substantial changes in average and minimum T(mrt) in the winter. In dense urban settings, a more diverse urban thermal environment is also preferred to compensate for reduced solar access in the winter. The extent to which the urban geometry can be optimized for the future climate is also influenced by local urban characteristics.}, }
@article {pmid25218330, year = {2014}, author = {Chung, ES and Kim, Y}, title = {Development of fuzzy multi-criteria approach to prioritize locations of treated wastewater use considering climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {146}, number = {}, pages = {505-516}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.08.013}, pmid = {25218330}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Decision Making ; Fuzzy Logic ; Republic of Korea ; Rivers/chemistry ; *Uncertainty ; Wastewater/*chemistry ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {This study proposed a robust prioritization framework to identify the priorities of treated wastewater (TWW) use locations with consideration of various uncertainties inherent in the climate change scenarios and the decision-making process. First, a fuzzy concept was applied because future forecast precipitation and their hydrological impact analysis results displayed significant variances when considering various climate change scenarios and long periods (e.g., 2010-2099). Second, various multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques including weighted sum method (WSM), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and fuzzy TOPSIS were introduced to robust prioritization because different MCDM methods use different decision philosophies. Third, decision making method under complete uncertainty (DMCU) including maximin, maximax, minimax regret, Hurwicz, and equal likelihood were used to find robust final rankings. This framework is then applied to a Korean urban watershed. As a result, different rankings were obviously appeared between fuzzy TOPSIS and non-fuzzy MCDMs (e.g., WSM and TOPSIS) because the inter-annual variability in effectiveness was considered only with fuzzy TOPSIS. Then, robust prioritizations were derived based on 18 rankings from nine decadal periods of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For more robust rankings, five DMCU approaches using the rankings from fuzzy TOPSIS were derived. This framework combining fuzzy TOPSIS with DMCU approaches can be rendered less controversial among stakeholders under complete uncertainty of changing environments.}, }
@article {pmid25216989, year = {2015}, author = {Creutzburg, MK and Halofsky, JE and Halofsky, JS and Christopher, TA}, title = {Climate change and land management in the rangelands of central Oregon.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {55}, number = {1}, pages = {43-55}, pmid = {25216989}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Artemisia/*growth &amp; development ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; Fires ; Juniperus/*growth &amp; development ; Oregon ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate change, along with exotic species, disturbances, and land use change, will likely have major impacts on sagebrush steppe ecosystems in the western U.S. over the next century. To effectively manage sagebrush steppe landscapes for long-term goals, managers need information about the interacting impacts of climate change, disturbances and land management on vegetation condition. Using a climate-informed state-and-transition model, we evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on rangeland condition in central Oregon and the effectiveness of multiple management strategies. Under three scenarios of climate change, we projected widespread shifts in potential vegetation types over the twenty-first century, with declining sagebrush steppe and expanding salt desert shrub likely by the end of the century. Many extreme fire years occurred under all climate change scenarios, triggering rapid vegetation shifts. Increasing wildfire under climate change resulted in expansion of exotic grasses but also decreased juniper encroachment relative to projections without climate change. Restoration treatments in warm-dry sagebrush steppe were ineffective in containing exotic grass, but juniper treatments in cool-moist sagebrush steppe substantially reduced the rate of juniper encroachment, particularly when prioritized early in the century. Overall, climate-related shifts dominated future vegetation patterns, making management for improved rangeland condition more difficult. Our approach allows researchers and managers to examine long-term trends and uncertainty in rangeland vegetation condition and test the effectiveness of alternative management actions under projected climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25216988, year = {2015}, author = {Kearney, KA and Butler, M and Glazer, R and Kelble, CR and Serafy, JE and Stabenau, E}, title = {Quantifying Florida Bay habitat suitability for fishes and invertebrates under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {836-856}, pmid = {25216988}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bays ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; *Fishes ; Florida ; Food Chain ; Forecasting/methods ; *Invertebrates ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid25216285, year = {2014}, author = {Ikeda, DH and Grady, KC and Shuster, SM and Whitham, TG}, title = {Incorporating climate change and exotic species into forecasts of riparian forest distribution.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {e107037}, pmid = {25216285}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forests ; Models, Theoretical ; Species Specificity ; Tamaricaceae ; }, abstract = {We examined the impact climate change (CC) will have on the availability of climatically suitable habitat for three native and one exotic riparian species. Due to its increasing prevalence in arid regions throughout the western US, we predicted that an exotic species, Tamarix, would have the greatest increase in suitable habitat relative to native counterparts under CC. We used an ecological niche model to predict range shifts of Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii, Salix exigua and Tamarix, from present day to 2080s, under five general circulation models and one climate change scenario (A1B). Four major findings emerged. 1) Contrary to our original hypothesis, P. fremontii is projected to have the greatest increase in suitable habitat under CC, followed closely by Tamarix. 2) Of the native species, S. gooddingii and S. exigua showed the greatest loss in predicted suitable habitat due to CC. 3) Nearly 80 percent of future P. fremontii and Salix habitat is predicted to be affected by either CC or Tamarix by the 2080s. 4) By the 2080s, 20 percent of S. gooddingii habitat is projected to be affected by both Tamarix and CC concurrently, followed by S. exigua (19 percent) and P. fremontii (13 percent). In summary, while climate change alone will negatively impact both native willow species, Tamarix is likely to affect a larger portion of all three native species' distributions. We discuss these and other results in the context of prioritizing restoration and conservation efforts to optimize future productivity and biodiversity. As we are accounting for only direct effects of CC and Tamarix on native habitat, we present a possible hierarchy of effects- from the direct to the indirect- and discuss the potential for the indirect to outweigh the direct effects. Our results highlight the need to account for simultaneous challenges in the face of CC.}, }
@article {pmid25214074, year = {2014}, author = {Carrasco, LR and Papworth, SK}, title = {A ranking of net national contributions to climate change mitigation through tropical forest conservation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {146}, number = {}, pages = {575-581}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.08.016}, pmid = {25214074}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Commerce ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forests ; Trees ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Deforestation in tropical regions causes 15% of global anthropogenic carbon emissions and reduces the mitigation potential of carbon sequestration services. A global market failure occurs as the value of many ecosystem services provided by forests is not recognised by the markets. Identifying the contribution of individual countries to tropical carbon stocks and sequestration might help identify responsibilities and facilitate debate towards the correction of the market failure through international payments for ecosystem services. We compare and rank tropical countries' contributions by estimating carbon sequestration services vs. emissions disservices. The annual value of tropical carbon sequestration services in 2010 from 88 tropical countries was estimated to range from $2.8 to $30.7 billion, using market and social prices of carbon respectively. Democratic Republic of Congo, India and Sudan contribute the highest net carbon sequestration, whereas Brazil, Nigeria and Indonesia are the highest net emitters.}, }
@article {pmid25213839, year = {2014}, author = {Wright, CY and Mathee, A and Garland, RM}, title = {Climate change, human health and the role of environmental health practitioners.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {104}, number = {8}, pages = {518-519}, doi = {10.7196/samj.7994}, pmid = {25213839}, issn = {0256-9574}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25209942, year = {2014}, author = {Rosa, R and Baptista, M and Lopes, VM and Pegado, MR and Paula, JR and Trübenbach, K and Leal, MC and Calado, R and Repolho, T}, title = {Early-life exposure to climate change impairs tropical shark survival.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {281}, number = {1793}, pages = {}, pmid = {25209942}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Sharks/embryology/*genetics/physiology ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Sharks are one of the most threatened groups of marine animals worldwide, mostly owing to overfishing and habitat degradation/loss. Although these cartilaginous fish have evolved to fill many ecological niches across a wide range of habitats, they have limited capability to rapidly adapt to human-induced changes in their environments. Contrary to global warming, ocean acidification was not considered as a direct climate-related threat to sharks. Here we show, for the first time, that an early ontogenetic acclimation process of a tropical shark (Chiloscyllium punctatum) to the projected scenarios of ocean acidification (ΔpH = 0.5) and warming (+4°C; 30°C) for 2100 elicited significant impairments on juvenile shark condition and survival. The mortality of shark embryos at the present-day thermal scenarios was 0% both at normocapnic and hypercapnic conditions. Yet routine metabolic rates (RMRs) were significantly affected by temperature, pH and embryonic stage. Immediately after hatching, the Fulton condition of juvenile bamboo sharks was significantly different in individuals that experienced future warming and hypercapnia; 30 days after hatching, survival rapidly declined in individuals experiencing both ocean warming and acidification (up to 44%). The RMR of juvenile sharks was also significantly affected by temperature and pH. The impact of low pH on ventilation rates was significant only under the higher thermal scenario. This study highlights the need of experimental-based risk assessments of sharks to climate change. In other words, it is critical to directly assess risk and vulnerability of sharks to ocean acidification and warming, and such effort can ultimately help managers and policy-makers to take proactive measures targeting most endangered species.}, }
@article {pmid25208518, year = {2014}, author = {Liu, Y and Yu, D and Su, Y and Hao, R}, title = {Quantifying the effect of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event of climate change on ecosystem productivity.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {186}, number = {12}, pages = {8473-8486}, pmid = {25208518}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {China ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; Photosynthesis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change comprises three fractions of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event. Assessing the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem requires an understanding of the action mechanism of these fractions, respectively. This study examined 11 years of remotely sensed-derived net primary productivity (NPP) to identify the impacts of the trend and fluctuation of climate change as well as extremely low temperatures caused by a freezing disaster on ecosystem productivity in Hunan province, China. The partial least squares regression model was used to evaluate the contributions of temperature, precipitation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to NPP variation. A climatic signal decomposition and contribution assessment model was proposed to decompose climate factors into trend and fluctuation components. Then, we quantitatively evaluated the contributions of each component of climatic factors to NPP variation. The results indicated that the total contribution of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation from 2001 to 2011 in Hunan province is 85 %, and individual contributions of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation are 44 % (including 34 % trend contribution and 10 % fluctuation contribution), 5 % (including 4 % trend contribution and 1 % fluctuation contribution), and 36 % (including 30 % trend contribution and 6 % fluctuation contribution), respectively. The contributions of temperature fluctuation-driven NPP were higher in the north and lower in the south, and the contributions of precipitation trend-driven NPP and PAR fluctuation-driven NPP are higher in the west and lower in the east. As an instance of occasionally triggered disturbance in 2008, extremely low temperatures and a freezing disaster produced an abrupt decrease of NPP in forest and grass ecosystems. These results prove that the climatic trend change brought about great impacts on ecosystem productivity and that climatic fluctuations and extreme events can also alter the ecosystem succession process, even resulting in an alternative trajectory. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on the provision of ecosystem functions and services and can also provide a basis for policy makers to apply adaptive measures to overcome the unfavorable influence of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25205584, year = {2014}, author = {McCoy, D and Hoskins, B}, title = {The science of anthropogenic climate change: what every doctor should know.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {349}, number = {}, pages = {g5178}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g5178}, pmid = {25205584}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Air Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Rain ; Seawater ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid25205511, year = {2015}, author = {Reynolds, LL and Johnson, BR and Pfeifer-Meister, L and Bridgham, SD}, title = {Soil respiration response to climate change in Pacific Northwest prairies is mediated by a regional Mediterranean climate gradient.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {487-500}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12732}, pmid = {25205511}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate ; Geography ; *Grassland ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Models, Biological ; Northwestern United States ; Plants/*metabolism ; *Seasons ; *Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; Water/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Soil respiration is expected to increase with rising global temperatures but the degree of response may depend on soil moisture and other local factors. Experimental climate change studies from single sites cannot discern whether an observed response is site-dependent or generalizable. To deconvolve site-specific vs. regional climatic controls, we examined soil respiration for 18 months along a 520 km climate gradient in three Pacific Northwest, USA prairies that represents increasingly severe Mediterranean conditions from north to south. At each site we implemented a fully factorial combination of 2.5-3 °C warming and 20% added precipitation intensity. The response of soil respiration to warming was driven primarily by the latitudinal climate gradient and not site-specific factors. Warming increased respiration at all sites during months when soil moisture was not limiting. However, these gains were offset by reductions in respiration during seasonal transitions and summer drought due to lengthened periods of soil moisture limitation. The degree of this offset varied along the north-south climate gradient such that in 2011 warming increased cumulative annual soil respiration 28.6% in the northern site, 13.5% in the central site, and not at all in the southern site. Precipitation also stimulated soil respiration more frequently in the south, consistent with an increased duration of moisture limitation. The best predictors of soil respiration in nonlinear models were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), antecedent soil moisture, and temperature but these models provided biased results at high and low soil respiration. NDVI was an effective integrator of climate and site differences in plant productivity in terms of their combined effects on soil respiration. Our results suggest that soil moisture limitation can offset the effect of warming on soil respiration, and that greater growing-season moisture limitation would constrain cumulative annual responses to warming.}, }
@article {pmid25205436, year = {2014}, author = {Valladares, F and Matesanz, S and Guilhaumon, F and Araújo, MB and Balaguer, L and Benito-Garzón, M and Cornwell, W and Gianoli, E and van Kleunen, M and Naya, DE and Nicotra, AB and Poorter, H and Zavala, MA}, title = {The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {17}, number = {11}, pages = {1351-1364}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12348}, pmid = {25205436}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*genetics ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; Genotype ; *Models, Biological ; Phenotype ; Pinus/genetics ; Plants/genetics ; }, abstract = {Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population-level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation.}, }
@article {pmid25202727, year = {2014}, author = {Wang, X and Sun, Z and Zhou, AG}, title = {Alpine cold vegetation response to climate change in the western Nyainqentanglha range in 1972-2009.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {2014}, number = {}, pages = {514736}, pmid = {25202727}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {*Altitude ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; }, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau is regarded as one of the most climatic-sensitive regions all over the world. Long-term remote sensing data enable us to monitor spatial-temporal change in this area. The vegetation changes of the western Nyainqentanglha region were detected by using RS and GIS techniques. And the vegetation coverage was derived by the NDVI-SMA (spectral mixture analysis) methods. An incensement of vegetation was observed in the mountain areas during 1972-2009 with a mean vegetation coverage of 24.87%, 35.89%, and 42.88% in 30/09/1972, 14/09/1991, and 30/08/2009, respectively. The vegetation fraction increased by 18% in the period of 1972-2009. The bin with the elevation between 4400 and 5200 m had the highest vegetation coverage. This may be the result of the mountain effect. Alpine vegetation had a trend to increase and expand to higher altitudes with the climate change in the past 40 years. The variation appears to be associated with an increase in mean temperature of 0.05 °C per year and an increase in precipitation of 1.83 mm per year in the growing season of the past four decades. The results provide further evidence of alpine ecosystem change due to climate change in the central Tibetan Plateau.}, }
@article {pmid25200514, year = {2014}, author = {Thuiller, W}, title = {Editorial commentary on 'patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change'.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {12}, pages = {3593-3594}, pmid = {25200514}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {281422/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Demography ; Forecasting/*methods ; Geography ; *Models, Theoretical ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid25199970, year = {2014}, author = {Wei, J and Hansen, A and Zhang, Y and Li, H and Liu, Q and Sun, Y and Bi, P}, title = {Perception, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change: a survey among CDC health professionals in Shanxi province, China.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {134}, number = {}, pages = {301-308}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2014.08.006}, pmid = {25199970}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: A better understanding of public perceptions, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change will provide an important foundation for government׳s policy-making, service provider׳s guideline development and the engagement of local communities. The purpose of this study was to assess the perception towards climate change, behavior change, mitigation and adaptation measures issued by the central government among the health professionals in the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China.<br><br>METHODS: In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 CDC health professionals in various levels of CDC in Shanxi Province, China. Descriptive analyses were performed.<br><br>RESULTS: More than two thirds of the respondents believed that climate change has happened at both global and local levels, and climate change would lead to adverse impacts to human beings. Most respondents (74.8%) indicated the emission of greenhouse gases was the cause of climate change, however there was a lack of knowledge about greenhouse gases and their sources. Media was the main source from which respondents obtained the information about climate change. A majority of respondents showed that they were willing to change behavior, but their actions were limited. In terms of mitigation and adaptation measures issued by the Chinese Government, respondents&#x5f3; perception showed inconsistency between strategies and relevant actions. Moreover, although the majority of respondents believed some strategies and measures were extremely important to address climate change, they were still concerned about economic development, energy security, and local environmental protection.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There are gaps between perceptions and actions towards climate change among these health professionals. Further efforts need to be made to raise the awareness of climate change among health professionals, and to promote relevant actions to address climate change in the context of the proposed policies with local sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid25197625, year = {2014}, author = {Rose, H and Hoar, B and Kutz, SJ and Morgan, ER}, title = {Exploiting parallels between livestock and wildlife: Predicting the impact of climate change on gastrointestinal nematodes in ruminants.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology. Parasites and wildlife}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {209-219}, pmid = {25197625}, issn = {2213-2244}, abstract = {Global change, including climate, policy, land use and other associated environmental changes, is likely to have a major impact on parasitic disease in wildlife, altering the spatio-temporal patterns of transmission, with wide-ranging implications for wildlife, domestic animals, humans and ecosystem health. Predicting the potential impact of climate change on parasites infecting wildlife will become increasingly important in the management of species of conservation concern and control of disease at the wildlife-livestock and wildlife-human interface, but is confounded by incomplete knowledge of host-parasite interactions, logistical difficulties, small sample sizes and limited opportunities to manipulate the system. By exploiting parallels between livestock and wildlife, existing theoretical frameworks and research on livestock and their gastrointestinal nematodes can be adapted to wildlife systems. Similarities in the gastrointestinal nematodes and the life-histories of wild and domestic ruminants, coupled with a detailed knowledge of the ecology and life-cycle of the parasites, render the ruminant-GIN host-parasite system particularly amenable to a cross-disciplinary approach.}, }
@article {pmid25196332, year = {2014}, author = {Mercer, J and Kelman, I and do Rosario, F and de Deus de Jesus Lima, A and da Silva, A and Beloff, AM and McClean, A}, title = {Nation-building policies in Timor-Leste: disaster risk reduction, including climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {38}, number = {4}, pages = {690-718}, pmid = {25196332}, issn = {1467-7717}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; *Public Policy ; *Risk Reduction Behavior ; Timor-Leste ; }, abstract = {Few studies have explored the relationships between nation-building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation-building in Timor-Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation-building in Timor-Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor-Leste's history and its nation-building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation-building in Timor-Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor-Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.}, }
@article {pmid25191841, year = {2014}, author = {Ortega-Egea, JM and García-de-Frutos, N and Antolín-López, R}, title = {Why do some people do "more" to mitigate climate change than others? Exploring heterogeneity in psycho-social associations.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {e106645}, pmid = {25191841}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Motivation ; Risk Factors ; *Social Behavior ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized--and differentiated from common mitigation behavior--as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change--but not in motivational or socio-demographic links--with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries.}, }
@article {pmid25191675, year = {2014}, author = {Häder, DP and Villafañe, VE and Helbling, EW}, title = {Productivity of aquatic primary producers under global climate change.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {1370-1392}, doi = {10.1039/c3pp50418b}, pmid = {25191675}, issn = {1474-9092}, abstract = {The productivity of aquatic primary producers depends on a number of biotic and abiotic factors, such as pH, CO2 concentration, temperature, nutrient availability, solar UV and PAR irradiances, mixing frequency as well as herbivore pressure and the presence of viruses, among others. The effects of these factors, within a climate change context, may be additive, synergistic or antagonistic. Since some of them, e.g. solar radiation and temperature, vary along a latitudinal gradient, this perspective about the effects of global climate change on primary producers will consider ecosystems individually, separated into polar (Arctic and Antarctic), temperate and tropical waters. As coastal waters are characterized by lower light penetration and higher DOM and nutrient concentrations, they are considered in a separate section. Freshwater systems are also governed by different conditions and therefore also treated in their own section. Overall, we show that although there are general common trends of changes in variables associated with global change (e.g. the impact of UVR on photosynthesis tends to decrease with increasing temperature and nutrient input), the responses of aquatic primary producers have great variability in the different ecosystems across latitudes. This is mainly due to direct or indirect effects associated with physico-chemical changes that occur within water bodies. Therefore we stress the need for regional predictions on the responses of primary producers to climate change as it is not warranted to extrapolate from one system to another.}, }
@article {pmid25186465, year = {2015}, author = {Valles, SA}, title = {Bioethics and the Framing of Climate Change's Health Risks.}, journal = {Bioethics}, volume = {29}, number = {5}, pages = {334-341}, doi = {10.1111/bioe.12110}, pmid = {25186465}, issn = {1467-8519}, mesh = {*Bioethical Issues ; *Climate Change ; Consensus ; Dissent and Disputes ; Drug Resistance, Microbial ; *Ethicists ; Humans ; Persuasive Communication ; *Professional Role ; Public Health/*ethics ; *Public Opinion ; Risk ; United States ; }, abstract = {Cheryl Cox Macpherson recently argued, in an article for this journal, that 'Climate Change is a Bioethics Problem'. This article elaborates on that position, particularly highlighting bioethicists' potential ability to help reframe the current climate change discourse to give more attention to its health risks. This reframing process is especially important because of the looming problem of climate change skepticism. Recent empirical evidence from science framing experiments indicates that the public reacts especially positively to climate change messages framed in public health terms, and bioethicists are particularly well positioned to contribute their expertise to the process of carefully developing and communicating such messages. Additionally, as climate framing research and practice continue, it will be important for bioethicists to contribute to the creation of that project's nascent ethical standards. The discourse surrounding antibiotic resistance is posited as an example that can lend insight into how communicating a public health-framed message, including the participation of bioethicists, can help to override public skepticism about the findings of politically contentious scientific fields.}, }
@article {pmid25184755, year = {2014}, author = {Cooper, CB and Shirk, J and Zuckerberg, B}, title = {The invisible prevalence of citizen science in global research: migratory birds and climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {e106508}, pmid = {25184755}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Research ; *Science ; }, abstract = {Citizen science is a research practice that relies on public contributions of data. The strong recognition of its educational value combined with the need for novel methods to handle subsequent large and complex data sets raises the question: Is citizen science effective at science? A quantitative assessment of the contributions of citizen science for its core purpose--scientific research--is lacking. We examined the contribution of citizen science to a review paper by ornithologists in which they formulated ten central claims about the impact of climate change on avian migration. Citizen science was never explicitly mentioned in the review article. For each of the claims, these ornithologists scored their opinions about the amount of research effort invested in each claim and how strongly the claim was supported by evidence. This allowed us to also determine whether their trust in claims was, unwittingly or not, related to the degree to which the claims relied primarily on data generated by citizen scientists. We found that papers based on citizen science constituted between 24 and 77% of the references backing each claim, with no evidence of a mistrust of claims that relied heavily on citizen-science data. We reveal that many of these papers may not easily be recognized as drawing upon volunteer contributions, as the search terms "citizen science" and "volunteer" would have overlooked the majority of the studies that back the ten claims about birds and climate change. Our results suggest that the significance of citizen science to global research, an endeavor that is reliant on long-term information at large spatial scales, might be far greater than is readily perceived. To better understand and track the contributions of citizen science in the future, we urge researchers to use the keyword "citizen science" in papers that draw on efforts of non-professionals.}, }
@article {pmid25184582, year = {2014}, author = {Abrutzky, R and Dawidowski, L and Murgida, A and Natenzon, CE}, title = {[Air contamination in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires: the current risk or future climate change, a false option].}, journal = {Ciencia &amp; saude coletiva}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {3763-3773}, doi = {10.1590/1413-81232014199.07472014}, pmid = {25184582}, issn = {1678-4561}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Argentina ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk ; *Urban Health ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Based on the theoretical framework of environmental risk, this article discusses the management of air quality in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires in relation to current and potential impacts of toxic gases and global climate change on the health of the population. Information on historical and current management of the air was linked to the results of the South American Emissions, Megacities and Climate research project to assess danger, exposure, vulnerability and uncertainty as the dimensions of risk. By contextualizing public policies developed in recent decades on this subject, it was possible to identify emerging configurations of risk and uncertainties as accelerators of social vulnerability. On the one hand, the fact that there is a positive correlation between mortality, changes in temperature and air pollution was confirmed. On the other hand, it became clear that there is a disconnect between air quality management and health care management, while limitations were found in the proposed mitigation measures relating to emissions of greenhouse gases produced by fuel, revealing uncertainties regarding their efficacy.}, }
@article {pmid25181045, year = {2014}, author = {Wei, T and Cherry, TL and Glomrød, S and Zhang, T}, title = {Climate change impacts on crop yield: evidence from China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {499}, number = {}, pages = {133-140}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.08.035}, pmid = {25181045}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Food Supply ; }, abstract = {When estimating climate change impact on crop yield, a typical assumption is constant elasticity of yield with respect to a climate variable even though the elasticity may be inconstant. After estimating both constant and inconstant elasticities with respect to temperature and precipitation based on provincial panel data in China 1980-2008, our results show that during that period, the temperature change contributes positively to total yield growth by 1.3% and 0.4% for wheat and rice, respectively, but negatively by 12% for maize. The impacts of precipitation change are marginal. We also compare our estimates with other studies and highlight the implications of the inconstant elasticities for crop yield, harvest and food security. We conclude that climate change impact on crop yield would not be an issue in China if positive impacts of other socio-economic factors continue in the future.}, }
@article {pmid25180515, year = {2014}, author = {Shrestha, UB and Bawa, KS}, title = {Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {e106405}, pmid = {25180515}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fungi/*physiology ; Geography ; Larva/microbiology ; Nepal ; }, abstract = {Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.}, }
@article {pmid25179962, year = {2014}, author = {Zarocostas, J}, title = {WHO calls for stronger action to reduce health risks from climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {349}, number = {}, pages = {g5403}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g5403}, pmid = {25179962}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid25179407, year = {2015}, author = {Hiddink, JG and Burrows, MT and García Molinos, J}, title = {Temperature tracking by North Sea benthic invertebrates in response to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {117-129}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12726}, pmid = {25179407}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/physiology ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Invertebrates/*physiology ; North Sea ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and distributions shifts are one of the most significant threats to global warming, but the extent to which these shifts keep pace with a changing climate is yet uncertain. Understanding the factors governing range shifts is crucial for conservation management to anticipate patterns of biodiversity distribution under future anthropogenic climate change. Soft-sediment invertebrates are a key faunal group because of their role in marine biogeochemistry and as a food source for commercial fish species. However, little information exists on their response to climate change. Here, we evaluate changes in the distribution of 65 North Sea benthic invertebrate species between 1986 and 2000 by examining their geographic, bathymetric and thermal niche shifts and test whether species are tracking their thermal niche as defined by minimum, mean or maximum sea bottom (SBT) and surface (SST) temperatures. Temperatures increased in the whole North Sea with many benthic invertebrates showing north-westerly range shifts (leading/trailing edges as well as distribution centroids) and deepening. Nevertheless, distribution shifts for most species (3.8-7.3 km yr(-1) interquantile range) lagged behind shifts in both SBT and SST (mean 8.1 km yr(-1)), resulting in many species experiencing increasing temperatures. The velocity of climate change (VoCC) of mean SST accurately predicted both the direction and magnitude of distribution centroid shifts, while maximum SST did the same for contraction of the trailing edge. The VoCC of SBT was not a good predictor of range shifts. No good predictor of expansions of the leading edge was found. Our results show that invertebrates need to shift at different rates and directions to track the climate velocities of different temperature measures, and are therefore lagging behind most temperature measures. If these species cannot withstand a change in thermal habitat, this could ultimately lead to a drop in benthic biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid25178236, year = {2014}, author = {Kvåle, G}, title = {Climate change is a health issue.}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {134}, number = {16}, pages = {1582-1584}, doi = {10.4045/tidsskr.14.0142}, pmid = {25178236}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Energy-Generating Resources ; *Global Health ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Professional Role ; }, }
@article {pmid25177069, year = {2014}, author = {Pettersen, MV and Fleck, F}, title = {Bringing air pollution into the climate change equation.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {92}, number = {8}, pages = {553-554}, doi = {10.2471/BLT.14.030814}, pmid = {25177069}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Norway ; }, abstract = {As countries gear up for a major round of international climate talks next year in Paris, the growing problem of air pollution is fast becoming a vital part of the climate change and health debate. Fiona Fleck talks to Marit Viktoria Pettersen.}, }
@article {pmid25177068, year = {2014}, author = {Humphreys, G}, title = {Reframing climate change as a health issue.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {92}, number = {8}, pages = {551-552}, doi = {10.2471/BLT.14.020814}, pmid = {25177068}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Developing Countries ; *Global Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {International bodies, civil society, policy-makers and presidents are increasingly linking the issue of climate change to health. Gary Humphreys reports.}, }
@article {pmid25168977, year = {2014}, author = {Spickett, JT and Katscherian, D}, title = {Health impacts of climate change in the Solomon Islands: an assessment and adaptation action plan.}, journal = {Global journal of health science}, volume = {6}, number = {5}, pages = {261-273}, pmid = {25168977}, issn = {1916-9736}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Health Education ; Health Impact Assessment/*methods ; Humans ; Melanesia ; Population Surveillance ; }, abstract = {The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands' responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25168075, year = {2014}, author = {Haq, G and Gutman, G}, title = {Climate gerontology: meeting the challenge of population ageing and climate change.}, journal = {Zeitschrift fur Gerontologie und Geriatrie}, volume = {47}, number = {6}, pages = {462-467}, pmid = {25168075}, issn = {1435-1269}, mesh = {Age Distribution ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Extreme Heat ; Female ; Geriatrics/*trends ; Germany/epidemiology ; Healthcare Disparities/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Risk Factors ; Survival Analysis ; }, abstract = {The global population is ageing at a time when climate variability is increasing. It is argued that if we are to minimize the negative impact of environmental change on older people, interdisciplinary study of the convergence of the two trends, "climate gerontology", is needed. Climate gerontology can examine the unique challenges and needs of older people in coping with extreme weather events. It can contribute to our understanding of the everyday challenges of growing old in a changing climate and how we can achieve the "longevity dividend". In particular, it can lead the way to the development of effective policies to reduce the carbon footprint of people during their life course, protect older people from climate-related threats and mobilize their wealth of knowledge and experience to address these.}, }
@article {pmid25165771, year = {2014}, author = {Gienapp, P and Reed, TE and Visser, ME}, title = {Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {281}, number = {1793}, pages = {}, pmid = {25165771}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; Larva/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Lepidoptera/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Models, Biological ; Seasons ; *Selection, Genetic ; Songbirds/genetics/physiology ; }, abstract = {The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations.}, }
@article {pmid25165769, year = {2014}, author = {Bonebrake, TC and Boggs, CL and Stamberger, JA and Deutsch, CA and Ehrlich, PR}, title = {From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {281}, number = {1793}, pages = {}, pmid = {25165769}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Behavior, Animal/*physiology ; Biophysics ; Butterflies/*physiology ; Central America ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Tropical Climate ; United States ; }, abstract = {Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent.}, }
@article {pmid25165526, year = {2014}, author = {Wan, J and Wang, C and Yu, J and Nie, S and Han, S and Zu, Y and Chen, C and Yuan, S and Wang, Q}, title = {Model-based conservation planning of the genetic diversity of Phellodendron amurense Rupr due to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {14}, pages = {2884-2900}, pmid = {25165526}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change affects both habitat suitability and the genetic diversity of wild plants. Therefore, predicting and establishing the most effective and coherent conservation areas is essential for the conservation of genetic diversity in response to climate change. This is because genetic variance is a product not only of habitat suitability in conservation areas but also of efficient protection and management. Phellodendron amurense Rupr. is a tree species (family Rutaceae) that is endangered due to excessive and illegal harvesting for use in Chinese medicine. Here, we test a general computational method for the prediction of priority conservation areas (PCAs) by measuring the genetic diversity of P. amurense across the entirety of northeast China using a single strand repeat analysis of twenty microsatellite markers. Using computational modeling, we evaluated the geographical distribution of the species, both now and in different future climate change scenarios. Different populations were analyzed according to genetic diversity, and PCAs were identified using a spatial conservation prioritization framework. These conservation areas were optimized to account for the geographical distribution of P. amurense both now and in the future, to effectively promote gene flow, and to have a long period of validity. In situ and ex situ conservation, strategies for vulnerable populations were proposed. Three populations with low genetic diversity are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change, making conservation of genetic diversity challenging due to decreasing habitat suitability. Habitat suitability was important for the assessment of genetic variability in existing nature reserves, which were found to be much smaller than the proposed PCAs. Finally, a simple set of conservation measures was established through modeling. This combined molecular and computational ecology approach provides a framework for planning the protection of species endangered by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25164753, year = {2014}, author = {O'Gorman, PA}, title = {Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {512}, number = {7515}, pages = {416-418}, pmid = {25164753}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Air ; Climate ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; *Snow ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as -9 °C, compared to -14 °C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain-snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.}, }
@article {pmid25164733, year = {2014}, author = {Palmer, PI and Smith, MJ}, title = {Earth systems: Model human adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {512}, number = {7515}, pages = {365-366}, pmid = {25164733}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; *Behavior ; Data Collection/trends ; Decision Making ; Feedback ; Global Warming/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Models, Psychological ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid25163601, year = {2014}, author = {Demuzere, M and Orru, K and Heidrich, O and Olazabal, E and Geneletti, D and Orru, H and Bhave, AG and Mittal, N and Feliu, E and Faehnle, M}, title = {Mitigating and adapting to climate change: multi-functional and multi-scale assessment of green urban infrastructure.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {146}, number = {}, pages = {107-115}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.025}, pmid = {25163601}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Cities ; City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; *Ecosystem ; Environment Design ; Humans ; Urban Health ; }, abstract = {In order to develop climate resilient urban areas and reduce emissions, several opportunities exist starting from conscious planning and design of green (and blue) spaces in these landscapes. Green urban infrastructure has been regarded as beneficial, e.g. by balancing water flows, providing thermal comfort. This article explores the existing evidence on the contribution of green spaces to climate change mitigation and adaptation services. We suggest a framework of ecosystem services for systematizing the evidence on the provision of bio-physical benefits (e.g. CO2 sequestration) as well as social and psychological benefits (e.g. improved health) that enable coping with (adaptation) or reducing the adverse effects (mitigation) of climate change. The multi-functional and multi-scale nature of green urban infrastructure complicates the categorization of services and benefits, since in reality the interactions between various benefits are manifold and appear on different scales. We will show the relevance of the benefits from green urban infrastructures on three spatial scales (i.e. city, neighborhood and site specific scales). We will further report on co-benefits and trade-offs between the various services indicating that a benefit could in turn be detrimental in relation to other functions. The manuscript identifies avenues for further research on the role of green urban infrastructure, in different types of cities, climates and social contexts. Our systematic understanding of the bio-physical and social processes defining various services allows targeting stressors that may hamper the provision of green urban infrastructure services in individual behavior as well as in wider planning and environmental management in urban areas.}, }
@article {pmid25163522, year = {2014}, author = {Hagos, S and Lunde, T and Mariam, DH and Woldehanna, T and Lindtjørn, B}, title = {Climate change, crop production and child under nutrition in Ethiopia; a longitudinal panel study.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {884}, pmid = {25163522}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Child ; Child Nutritional Physiological Phenomena ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Ethiopia/epidemiology ; Female ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Nutrition Disorders/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Rain ; Starvation ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The amount and distribution of rainfall and temperature influences household food availability, thus increasing the risk of child under nutrition. However, few studies examined the local spatial variability and the impact of temperature and rainfall on child under nutrition at a smaller scale (resolution). We conducted this study to evaluate the effect of weather variables on child under nutrition and the variations in effects across the three agro ecologies of Ethiopia.<br><br>METHODS: A longitudinal panel study was conducted. We used crop productions (cereals and oilseeds), livestock, monthly rainfall and temperature, and child under nutrition data for the period of 1996, 1998, 2000 and 2004. We applied panel regression fixed effects model.<br><br>RESULTS: The study included 43 clusters (administrative zones) and 145 observations. We observed a spatio temporal variability of rainfall, stunting and underweight. We estimated that for a given zone, one standard deviation increase in rainfall leads to 0.242 standard deviations increase in moderate stunting. Additionally, a one standard deviation increase temperature leads to 0.216 standard deviations decrease in moderate stunting. However, wasting was found to be poorly related with rainfall and temperature. But severe wasting showed a positive relationship with the quadratic term of rainfall.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that rainfall and temperature are partly predicting the variation in child stunting and underweight. Models vary in predicting stunting and underweight across the three agro ecologic zones. This could indicate that a single model for the three agro ecologies may not be not applicable.}, }
@article {pmid25163430, year = {2014}, author = {Gomiero, A and Viarengo, A}, title = {Effects of elevated temperature on the toxicity of copper and oxytetracycline in the marine model, Euplotes crassus: a climate change perspective.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {194}, number = {}, pages = {262-271}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2014.07.035}, pmid = {25163430}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Copper/*toxicity ; Euplotes/drug effects/*physiology ; Hot Temperature ; Oxytetracycline/*toxicity ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {Trace metals and broad-spectrum antibiotic drugs are common environmental contaminants, the importance of which is increasing due to global climate change-related effects. In the present study, the biological model organism E. crassus was first acclimated to five temperatures, from 25 °C to 33 °C, followed by exposure to nominal concentrations of copper, the antibiotic model compound oxytetracycline and mixtures of both, at increasing thermal conditions. Variations of temperature-related toxicity were assessed by two high-level endpoint tests, survival and replication rates, and two sublethal parameters: endocytosis rate and lysosomal membrane stability. The selected toxicants presented opposite behaviours as the protozoa's survival rates increased following an increasing thermal gradient in the oxytetracycline-related treatments, and a decline of tolerance in metal-related treatments was observed. Results of tests combining binary mixtures of tested toxicants showed a complex pattern of responses.}, }
@article {pmid25163424, year = {2015}, author = {Youngsteadt, E and Dale, AG and Terando, AJ and Dunn, RR and Frank, SD}, title = {Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {97-105}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12692}, pmid = {25163424}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acer/*parasitology ; Animals ; *Cities ; *Climate Change/history ; Hemiptera/*physiology ; Herbivory/physiology ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; Population Density ; Southeastern United States ; *Temperature ; Trees/*parasitology ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.}, }
@article {pmid25161660, year = {2014}, author = {Anthelme, F and Cavieres, LA and Dangles, O}, title = {Facilitation among plants in alpine environments in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {387}, pmid = {25161660}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {While there is a large consensus that plant-plant interactions are a crucial component of the response of plant communities to the effects of climate change, available data remain scarce, particularly in alpine systems. This represents an important obstacle to making consistent predictions about the future of plant communities. Here, we review current knowledge on the effects of climate change on facilitation among alpine plant communities and propose directions for future research. In established alpine communities, while warming seemingly generates a net facilitation release, earlier snowmelt may increase facilitation. Some nurse plants are able to buffer microenvironmental changes in the long term and may ensure the persistence of other alpine plants through local migration events. For communities migrating to higher elevations, facilitation should play an important role in their reorganization because of the harsher environmental conditions. In particular, the absence of efficient nurse plants might slow down upward migration, possibly generating chains of extinction. Facilitation-climate change relationships are expected to shift along latitudinal gradients because (1) the magnitude of warming is predicted to vary along these gradients, and (2) alpine environments are significantly different at low vs. high latitudes. Data on these expected patterns are preliminary and thus need to be tested with further studies on facilitation among plants in alpine environments that have thus far not been considered. From a methodological standpoint, future studies will benefit from the spatial representation of the microclimatic environment of plants to predict their response to climate change. Moreover, the acquisition of long-term data on the dynamics of plant-plant interactions, either through permanent plots or chronosequences of glacial recession, may represent powerful approaches to clarify the relationship between plant interactions and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25161166, year = {2015}, author = {Nisbet, EC and Cooper, KE and Ellithorpe, M}, title = {Ignorance or bias? Evaluating the ideological and informational drivers of communication gaps about climate change.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {285-301}, doi = {10.1177/0963662514545909}, pmid = {25161166}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; *Communication Barriers ; *Culture ; *Information Literacy ; Learning ; *Mass Media/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Politics ; }, abstract = {Does the relationship between media use and learning about climate change depend more on audiences' scientific literacy on their ideological biases? To answer this question, we evaluate both the knowledge gap and belief gap hypotheses as they relate to climate change. Results indicate belief gaps for news and entertainment content and a knowledge gap for edutainment content. Climate change knowledge among conservatives decreased with greater attention to political news, but increased with greater attention to science news. TV entertainment was associated with a significant decrease in knowledge about climate change among liberals to similar levels as conservatives. Edutainment was associated with a widening gap in knowledge based on respondents' scientific literacy. Implications for informal learning about controversial science through the media are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid25160896, year = {2014}, author = {Fitzgerald, DA}, title = {Mini-symposium: Childhood obesity and its impact on respiratory wellbeing: editorial title: Childhood obesity is the global warming of healthcare.}, journal = {Paediatric respiratory reviews}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {209-210}, doi = {10.1016/j.prrv.2014.08.001}, pmid = {25160896}, issn = {1526-0550}, mesh = {Child ; Humans ; Pediatric Obesity/*complications/*epidemiology ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid25156371, year = {2014}, author = {Agrawal, G and Borody, TJ and Chamberlin, W}, title = {'Global warming' to Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis.}, journal = {Future microbiology}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {829-832}, doi = {10.2217/fmb.14.52}, pmid = {25156371}, issn = {1746-0921}, mesh = {Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use ; Crohn Disease/epidemiology/immunology/*microbiology ; Global Health ; Humans ; Macrophages/immunology ; Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis/drug effects/genetics/isolation &amp; purification/*physiology ; Phagocytosis ; }, }
@article {pmid25156267, year = {2014}, author = {Lindner, M and Fitzgerald, JB and Zimmermann, NE and Reyer, C and Delzon, S and van der Maaten, E and Schelhaas, MJ and Lasch, P and Eggers, J and van der Maaten-Theunissen, M and Suckow, F and Psomas, A and Poulter, B and Hanewinkel, M}, title = {Climate change and European forests: what do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {146}, number = {}, pages = {69-83}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.030}, pmid = {25156267}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forests ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty - which is imperative for decision making - without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support.}, }
@article {pmid25155807, year = {2015}, author = {Gustafson, EJ and De Bruijn, AM and Pangle, RE and Limousin, JM and McDowell, NG and Pockman, WT and Sturtevant, BR and Muss, JD and Kubiske, ME}, title = {Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {843-856}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12713}, pmid = {25155807}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Forests ; Juniperus/*physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Photosynthesis ; Pinus/*physiology ; Plant Transpiration ; }, abstract = {Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS-II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles.}, }
@article {pmid25155644, year = {2015}, author = {Magozzi, S and Calosi, P}, title = {Integrating metabolic performance, thermal tolerance, and plasticity enables for more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to acute and chronic effects of global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {181-194}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12695}, pmid = {25155644}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Animals ; Crangonidae/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; Energy Metabolism/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Introduced Species ; Palaemonidae/*physiology ; Phenotype ; Phylogeny ; Species Specificity ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q10 for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade-off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing temperature helps providing more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to warming.}, }
@article {pmid25155196, year = {2015}, author = {Selwood, KE and McGeoch, MA and Mac Nally, R}, title = {The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {90}, number = {3}, pages = {837-853}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12136}, pmid = {25155196}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Extinction, Biological ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative.}, }
@article {pmid25154102, year = {2014}, author = {Roberts, DR and Nielsen, SE and Stenhouse, GB}, title = {Idiosyncratic responses of grizzly bear habitat to climate change based on projected food resource changes.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {1144-1154}, doi = {10.1890/13-0829.1}, pmid = {25154102}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; *Ursidae ; }, abstract = {Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates.}, }
@article {pmid25151109, year = {2014}, author = {Yang, J and Zou, L and Lin, T and Wu, Y and Wang, H}, title = {Public willingness to pay for CO2 mitigation and the determinants under climate change: a case study of Suzhou, China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {146}, number = {}, pages = {1-8}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.015}, pmid = {25151109}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Adult ; Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; Air Pollution/*economics/prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide/*adverse effects ; China ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*economics ; Female ; Financing, Personal ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {This study explored the factors that influence respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) for CO2 mitigation under climate change. A questionnaire survey combined with contingent valuation and psychometric paradigm methods were conducted in the city of Suzhou, Jiangsu Province in China. Respondents' traditional demographic attributes, risk perception of greenhouse gas (GHG), and attitude toward the government's risk management practices were established using a Tobit model to analyze the determinants. The results showed that about 55% of the respondents refused to pay for CO2 mitigation, respondent's WTP increased with increasing CO2 mitigation percentage. Important factors influencing WTP include people's feeling of dread of GHGs, confidence in policy, the timeliness of governmental information disclosure, age, education and income level.}, }
@article {pmid25149418, year = {2014}, author = {Bouzid, M and Colón-González, FJ and Lung, T and Lake, IR and Hunter, PR}, title = {Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: case study of dengue fever.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {781}, pmid = {25149418}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Aedes ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology ; Europe/epidemiology ; Geographic Information Systems ; Humans ; Incidence ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Density ; Risk Assessment ; Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease worldwide. Dengue transmission is critically dependent on climatic factors and there is much concern as to whether climate change would spread the disease to areas currently unaffected. The occurrence of autochthonous infections in Croatia and France in 2010 has raised concerns about a potential re-emergence of dengue in Europe. The objective of this study is to estimate dengue risk in Europe under climate change scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: We used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to estimate dengue fever risk as a function of climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity) and socioeconomic factors (population density, urbanisation, GDP per capita and population size), under contemporary conditions (1985-2007) in Mexico. We then used our model estimates to project dengue incidence under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios: short-term 2011-2040, medium-term 2041-2070 and long-term 2071-2100 across Europe. The model was used to calculate average number of yearly dengue cases at a spatial resolution of 10 &#xd7; 10 km grid covering all land surface of the currently 27 EU member states. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model dengue fever risk in Europe in terms of disease occurrence rather than mosquito presence.<br><br>RESULTS: The results were presented using Geographical Information System (GIS) and allowed identification of areas at high risk. Dengue fever hot spots were clustered around the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the Po Valley in northern Italy.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This risk assessment study is likely to be a valuable tool assisting effective and targeted adaptation responses to reduce the likely increased burden of dengue fever in a warmer world.}, }
@article {pmid25146282, year = {2014}, author = {Chen, X and Tung, KK}, title = {Climate. Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {345}, number = {6199}, pages = {897-903}, doi = {10.1126/science.1254937}, pmid = {25146282}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Hot Temperature ; Oceans and Seas ; Salinity ; }, abstract = {A vacillating global heat sink at intermediate ocean depths is associated with different climate regimes of surface warming under anthropogenic forcing: The latter part of the 20th century saw rapid global warming as more heat stayed near the surface. In the 21st century, surface warming slowed as more heat moved into deeper oceans. In situ and reanalyzed data are used to trace the pathways of ocean heat uptake. In addition to the shallow La Niña-like patterns in the Pacific that were the previous focus, we found that the slowdown is mainly caused by heat transported to deeper layers in the Atlantic and the Southern oceans, initiated by a recurrent salinity anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic. Cooling periods associated with the latter deeper heat-sequestration mechanism historically lasted 20 to 35 years.}, }
@article {pmid25146269, year = {2014}, author = {Marshall, S}, title = {Climate change. Glacier retreat crosses a line.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {345}, number = {6199}, pages = {872}, doi = {10.1126/science.1258584}, pmid = {25146269}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; *Ice Cover ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, }
@article {pmid25146261, year = {2014}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Is Atlantic holding Earth's missing heat?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {345}, number = {6199}, pages = {860-861}, doi = {10.1126/science.345.6199.860}, pmid = {25146261}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Hot Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid25140388, year = {2015}, author = {Shakya, SK and Goss, EM and Dufault, NS and van Bruggen, AH}, title = {Potential effects of diurnal temperature oscillations on potato late blight with special reference to climate change.}, journal = {Phytopathology}, volume = {105}, number = {2}, pages = {230-238}, doi = {10.1094/PHYTO-05-14-0132-R}, pmid = {25140388}, issn = {0031-949X}, mesh = {Circadian Rhythm ; Climate Change ; *Models, Statistical ; Phytophthora infestans/*physiology ; Plant Diseases/microbiology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Plant Leaves/microbiology ; Solanum tuberosum/*microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global climate change will have effects on diurnal temperature oscillations as well as on average temperatures. Studies on potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) development have not considered daily temperature oscillations. We hypothesize that growth and development rates of P. infestans would be less influenced by change in average temperature as the magnitude of fluctuations in daily temperatures increases. We investigated the effects of seven constant (10, 12, 15, 17, 20, 23, and 27°C) and diurnally oscillating (±5 and ±10°C) temperatures around the same means on number of lesions, incubation period, latent period, radial lesion growth rate, and sporulation intensity on detached potato leaves inoculated with two P. infestans isolates from clonal lineages US-8 and US-23. A four-parameter thermodynamic model was used to describe relationships between temperature and disease development measurements. Incubation and latency progression accelerated with increasing oscillations at low mean temperatures but slowed down with increasing oscillations at high mean temperatures (P < 0.005), as hypothesized. Infection efficiency, lesion growth rate, and sporulation increased under small temperature oscillations compared with constant temperatures but decreased when temperature oscillations were large. Thus, diurnal amplitude in temperature should be considered in models of potato late blight, particularly when predicting effects of global climate change on disease development.}, }
@article {pmid25140329, year = {2014}, author = {Zhang, ZS and Cao, CG and Guo, LJ and Li, CF}, title = {The effects of rape residue mulching on net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from no-tillage paddy fields.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {2014}, number = {}, pages = {198231}, pmid = {25140329}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Brassica napus ; Crops, Agricultural ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Recycling ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {A field experiment was conducted to provide a complete greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting for global warming potential (GWP), net GWP, and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) from no-tillage (NT) paddy fields with different amounts of oilseed rape residue mulch (0, 3000, 4000, and 6000 kg dry matter (DM) ha(-1)) during a rice-growing season after 3 years of oilseed rape-rice cultivation. Residue mulching treatments showed significantly more organic carbon (C) density for the 0-20 cm soil layer at harvesting than no residue treatment. During a rice-growing season, residue mulching treatments sequestered significantly more organic C from 687 kg C ha(-1) season(-1) to 1654 kg C ha(-1) season(-1) than no residue treatment. Residue mulching significantly increased emissions of CO2 and N2O but decreased CH4 emissions. Residue mulching treatments significantly increased GWP by 9-30% but significantly decreased net GWP by 33-71% and GHGI by 35-72% relative to no residue treatment. These results suggest that agricultural economic viability and GHG mitigation can be achieved simultaneously by residue mulching on NT paddy fields in central China.}, }
@article {pmid25137437, year = {2014}, author = {Yang, L and da Rocha, SR}, title = {Understanding solvation in the low global warming hydrofluoroolefin HFO-1234ze propellant.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. B}, volume = {118}, number = {36}, pages = {10675-10687}, doi = {10.1021/jp5059319}, pmid = {25137437}, issn = {1520-5207}, mesh = {Alkanes/*chemistry ; Esters/*chemistry ; Ethers/*chemistry ; Fluorocarbons/*chemistry ; Hydrocarbons, Fluorinated/chemistry ; Molecular Structure ; Solubility ; Solvents/*chemistry ; Static Electricity ; }, abstract = {Hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), with zero ozone-depleting effect and very low global warming potential, are considered to be the next-generation high-pressure working fluids. They have industrial relevance in areas including refrigeration and medical aerosols. One major challenge expected in the replacement of existing working fluids with HFOs is the solubility and solvation of additives in such hydrophobic and oleophobic low dielectric semifluorinated solvents. The study of the solvation of chemistries that represent those additives by HFOs is, therefore, of great relevance. In this work, we systematically investigate how the polarity and structure of fragments (the tail, t) that represent those additives affect their binding energy (Eb) with HFO-1234ze (1,1,1,3-tetrafluoropropene) (the solvent, s; Eb(st)). We also compare and contrast those results with those for the working fluids that are most widely used in the industry, the hydrofluoroalkanes (HFAs) HFA-134a and HFA-227. Three main chemistries were investigated: alkanes, ethers, and esters. It was found that HFO-1234ze interacts quite favorably with ethers and esters, as indicated by their Eb(st), while Eb(st) with alkanes was much lower. While ether and ester groups showed little difference in Eb(st), the much lower self-interaction energy between ether tail-tail fragments (Eb(tt)) is expected to result in improved solubility/solvation of those groups in HFO-1234ze when compared with the more polar ester groups. The ratio Eb(st)/Eb(tt) is defined as the enhancement factor (Eenh) and is expected to be a better predictor of solubility/solvation of the tail fragments. The branching of the tail groups upon the addition of pendant CH3 groups did not significantly affect the solvation by the propellant. At low branching density (one CH3 pendant group), it did not affect tail-tail self-interaction either. However, at high enough branching (two CH3 groups), steric hindrance caused a significant decrease in Eb(tt) and thus an increase in Eenh, suggesting that branching may be used as a strategy to enhance solvation in HFO propellants. Finally, the solvation behavior of HFO-1234ze was found to be similar to that of HFA-134a, thus suggesting similar considerations may apply for both propellants, when solvation properties are of a concern to the application.}, }
@article {pmid25137138, year = {2014}, author = {Zhang, H and Yu, Q and Huang, Y and Zheng, W and Tian, Y and Song, Y and Li, G and Zhou, D}, title = {Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {e105139}, pmid = {25137138}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; Computer Simulation ; *Germination ; Global Warming ; Magnoliopsida/*growth &amp; development ; Models, Biological ; Plant Dispersal ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.}, }
@article {pmid25137107, year = {2014}, author = {Bourque, F and Willox, AC}, title = {Climate change: the next challenge for public mental health?.}, journal = {International review of psychiatry (Abingdon, England)}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {415-422}, doi = {10.3109/09540261.2014.925851}, pmid = {25137107}, issn = {1369-1627}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; Canada/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Disasters ; Droughts ; Environment ; Floods ; Humans ; Inuit/psychology ; Mental Disorders/epidemiology/etiology ; *Mental Health ; Public Health ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to human health of the 21st century, with consequences that mental health professionals are also likely to face. While physical health impacts have been increasingly emphasized in literature and practice, recent scholarly literature indicates that climate change and related weather events and environmental changes can profoundly impact psychological well-being and mental health through both direct and indirect pathways, particularly among those with pre-existing vulnerabilities or those living in ecologically sensitive areas. Although knowledge is still limited about the connections between climate change and mental health, evidence is indicating that impacts may be felt at both the individual and community levels, with mental health outcomes ranging from psychological distress, depression and anxiety, to increased addictions and suicide rates. Drawing on examples from diverse geographical areas, this article highlights some climate-sensitive impacts that may be encountered by mental health professionals. We then suggest potential avenues for public mental health in light of current and projected changes, in order to stimulate thought, debate, and action.}, }
@article {pmid25136090, year = {2014}, author = {Jaeger, KL and Olden, JD and Pelland, NA}, title = {Climate change poised to threaten hydrologic connectivity and endemic fishes in dryland streams.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {38}, pages = {13894-13899}, pmid = {25136090}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*physiology ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; *Rivers ; Southwestern United States ; }, abstract = {Protecting hydrologic connectivity of freshwater ecosystems is fundamental to ensuring species persistence, ecosystem integrity, and human well-being. More frequent and severe droughts associated with climate change are poised to significantly alter flow intermittence patterns and hydrologic connectivity in dryland streams of the American Southwest, with deleterious effects on highly endangered fishes. By integrating local-scale hydrologic modeling with emerging approaches in landscape ecology, we quantify fine-resolution, watershed-scale changes in habitat size, spacing, and connectance under forecasted climate change in the Verde River Basin, United States. Model simulations project annual zero-flow day frequency to increase by 27% by midcentury, with differential seasonal consequences on continuity (temporal continuity at discrete locations) and connectivity (spatial continuity within the network). A 17% increase in the frequency of stream drying events is expected throughout the network with associated increases in the duration of these events. Flowing portions of the river network will diminish between 8% and 20% in spring and early summer and become increasingly isolated by more frequent and longer stretches of dry channel fragments, thus limiting the opportunity for native fishes to access spawning habitats and seasonally available refuges. Model predictions suggest that midcentury and late century climate will reduce network-wide hydrologic connectivity for native fishes by 6-9% over the course of a year and up to 12-18% during spring spawning months. Our work quantifies climate-induced shifts in stream drying and connectivity across a large river network and demonstrates their implications for the persistence of a globally endemic fish fauna.}, }
@article {pmid25132508, year = {2015}, author = {Aspinwall, MJ and Loik, ME and Resco de Dios, V and Tjoelker, MG and Payton, PR and Tissue, DT}, title = {Utilizing intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity to bolster agricultural and forest productivity under climate change.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {38}, number = {9}, pages = {1752-1764}, doi = {10.1111/pce.12424}, pmid = {25132508}, issn = {1365-3040}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Droughts ; Efficiency ; Forestry/*methods ; Forests ; Genetic Variation ; Plants/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Climate change threatens the ability of agriculture and forestry to meet growing global demands for food, fibre and wood products. Information gathered from genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E), which demonstrate intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity (the ability of a genotype to alter its phenotype in response to environmental change), may prove important for bolstering agricultural and forest productivity under climate change. Nonetheless, very few studies have explicitly quantified genotype plasticity-productivity relationships in agriculture or forestry. Here, we conceptualize the importance of intraspecific variation in agricultural and forest species plasticity, and discuss the physiological and genetic factors contributing to intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity. Our discussion highlights the need for an integrated understanding of the mechanisms of G × E, more extensive assessments of genotypic responses to climate change under field conditions, and explicit testing of genotype plasticity-productivity relationships. Ultimately, further investigation of intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity in agriculture and forestry may prove important for identifying genotypes capable of increasing or sustaining productivity under more extreme climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid25132390, year = {2014}, author = {Yoon, SJ and Oh, IH and Seo, HY and Kim, EJ}, title = {Measuring the burden of disease due to climate change and developing a forecast model in South Korea.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {128}, number = {8}, pages = {725-733}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2014.06.008}, pmid = {25132390}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; *Cost of Illness ; Disabled Persons ; Female ; *Forecasting ; Humans ; Hypertension/epidemiology ; Infrared Rays/adverse effects ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Models, Theoretical ; Myocardial Ischemia/epidemiology ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Climate change influences human health in various ways, and quantitative assessments of the effect of climate change on health at national level are becoming essential for environmental health management.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: This study quantified the burden of disease attributable to climate change in Korea using disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and projected how this would change over time.<br><br>METHODS: Diseases related to climate change in Korea were selected, and meteorological data for each risk factor of climate change were collected. Mortality was calculated, and a database of incidence and prevalence was established. After measuring the burden of each disease, the total burden of disease related to climate change was assessed by multiplying population-attributable fractions. Finally, an estimation model for the burden of disease was built based on Korean climate data.<br><br>RESULTS: The total burden of disease related to climate change in Korea was 6.85 DALY/1000 population in 2008. Cerebrovascular diseases induced by heat waves accounted for 72.1% of the total burden of disease (hypertensive disease 1.82 DALY/1000 population, ischaemic heart disease 1.56 DALY/1000 population, cerebrovascular disease 1.56 DALY/1000 population). According to the estimation model, the total burden of disease will be 11.48 DALY/1000 population in 2100, which is twice the total burden of disease in 2008.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study quantified the burden of disease caused by climate change in Korea, and provides valuable information for determining the priorities of environmental health policy in East Asian countries with similar climates.}, }
@article {pmid25131530, year = {2014}, author = {Ralovich, B}, title = {[The place of our Earth in the cosmos and the turning points in its history--thoughts related to climate change].}, journal = {Orvosi hetilap}, volume = {155}, number = {34}, pages = {1367-1368}, doi = {10.1556/OH.2014.34M}, pmid = {25131530}, issn = {0030-6002}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Consciousness ; *Earth, Planet ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Environment ; Humans ; *Life ; *Oxidation-Reduction ; *Population Growth ; *Volition ; }, }
@article {pmid25127398, year = {2014}, author = {Shanley, CS and Albert, DM}, title = {Climate change sensitivity index for Pacific salmon habitat in southeast Alaska.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {e104799}, pmid = {25127398}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Alaska ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; *Salmon ; }, abstract = {Global climate change may become one of the most pressing challenges to Pacific Salmon conservation and management for southeast Alaska in the 21st Century. Predicted hydrologic change associated with climate change will likely challenge the ability of specific stocks to adapt to new flow regimes and resulting shifts in spawning and rearing habitats. Current research suggests egg-to-fry survival may be one of the most important freshwater limiting factors in Pacific Salmon's northern range due to more frequent flooding events predicted to scour eggs from mobile spawning substrates. A watershed-scale hydroclimatic sensitivity index was developed to map this hypothesis with an historical stream gauge station dataset and monthly multiple regression-based discharge models. The relative change from present to future watershed conditions predicted for the spawning and incubation period (September to March) was quantified using an ensemble global climate model average (ECHAM5, HadCM3, and CGCM3.1) and three global greenhouse gas emission scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) projected to the year 2080. The models showed the region's diverse physiography and climatology resulted in a relatively predictable pattern of change: northern mainland and steeper, snow-fed mountainous watersheds exhibited the greatest increases in discharge, an earlier spring melt, and a transition into rain-fed hydrologic patterns. Predicted streamflow increases for all watersheds ranged from approximately 1-fold to 3-fold for the spawning and incubation period, with increased peak flows in the spring and fall. The hydroclimatic sensitivity index was then combined with an index of currently mapped salmon habitat and species diversity to develop a research and conservation priority matrix, highlighting potentially vulnerable to resilient high-value watersheds. The resulting matrix and observed trends are put forth as a framework to prioritize long-term monitoring plans, mitigation experiments, and finer-scale climate impact and adaptation studies.}, }
@article {pmid25124418, year = {2014}, author = {Rau, GH}, title = {Climate change: time to navigate.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {345}, number = {6198}, pages = {739}, doi = {10.1126/science.345.6198.739-c}, pmid = {25124418}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Administrative Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25122741, year = {2014}, author = {Carey, N and Sigwart, JD}, title = {Size matters: plasticity in metabolic scaling shows body-size may modulate responses to climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {}, pmid = {25122741}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/physiology ; Animals ; Body Size/*physiology ; Energy Metabolism/*physiology ; Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Polyplacophora/*physiology ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Species Specificity ; Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Variability in metabolic scaling in animals, the relationship between metabolic rate (R:) and body mass (M:), has been a source of debate and controversy for decades. R: is proportional to MB: , the precise value of B: much debated, but historically considered equal in all organisms. Recent metabolic theory, however, predicts B: to vary among species with ecology and metabolic level, and may also vary within species under different abiotic conditions. Under climate change, most species will experience increased temperatures, and marine organisms will experience the additional stressor of decreased seawater pH ('ocean acidification'). Responses to these environmental changes are modulated by myriad species-specific factors. Body-size is a fundamental biological parameter, but its modulating role is relatively unexplored. Here, we show that changes to metabolic scaling reveal asymmetric responses to stressors across body-size ranges; B: is systematically decreased under increasing temperature in three grazing molluscs, indicating smaller individuals were more responsive to warming. Larger individuals were, however, more responsive to reduced seawater pH in low temperatures. These alterations to the allometry of metabolism highlight abiotic control of metabolic scaling, and indicate that responses to climate warming and ocean acidification may be modulated by body-size.}, }
@article {pmid25122457, year = {2014}, author = {York, EM and Butler, CJ and Lord, WD}, title = {Global decline in suitable habitat for Angiostrongylus (= Parastrongylus) cantonensis: the role of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {e103831}, pmid = {25122457}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Angiostrongylus/*physiology ; Animals ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Introduced Species ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is implicated in the alteration of the ranges of species worldwide. Such shifts in species distributions may introduce parasites/pathogens, hosts, and vectors associated with disease to new areas. The parasite Angiostrongylus (= Parastrongylus) cantonensis is an invasive species that causes eosinophilic meningitis in humans and neurological abnormalities in domestic/wild animals. Although native to southeastern Asia, A. cantonensis has now been reported from more than 30 countries worldwide. Given the health risks, it is important to describe areas with potentially favorable climate for the establishment of A. cantonensis, as well as areas where this pathogen might become established in the future. We used the program Maxent to develop an ecological niche model for A. cantonensis based on 86 localities obtained from published literature. We then modeled areas of potential A. cantonensis distribution as well as areas projected to have suitable climatic conditions under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios by the 2050s and the 2070s. The best model contained three bioclimatic variables: mean diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of warmest quarter. Potentially suitable habitat for A. cantonensis was located worldwide in tropical and subtropical regions. Under all climate change RCP scenarios, the center of the projected distribution shifted away from the equator at a rate of 68-152 km per decade. However, the extent of areas with highly suitable habitat (>50%) declined by 10.66-15.66% by the 2050s and 13.11-16.11% by the 2070s. These results conflict with previous studies, which have generally found that the prevalence of tropical pathogens will increase during the 21st century. Moreover, it is likely that A. cantonensis will continue to expand its current range in the near future due to introductions and host expansion, whereas climate change will reduce the total geographic area of most suitable climatic conditions during the coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid25121188, year = {2014}, author = {Schoeman, DS and Schlacher, TA and Defeo, O}, title = {Climate-change impacts on sandy-beach biota: crossing a line in the sand.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {2383-2392}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12505}, pmid = {25121188}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bathing Beaches ; Biota ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Invertebrates ; Nesting Behavior ; South America ; Turtles ; }, abstract = {Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under-represented in the literature on climate-change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate-change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate-change impacts on sandy-shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate-change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate-change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate-change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.}, }
@article {pmid25119704, year = {2014}, author = {Degen, C and Kettner, SE and Fischer, H and Lohse, J and Funke, J and Schwieren, C and Goeschl, T and Schröder, J}, title = {Comprehension of climate change and environmental attitudes across the lifespan.}, journal = {Zeitschrift fur Gerontologie und Geriatrie}, volume = {47}, number = {6}, pages = {490-494}, pmid = {25119704}, issn = {1435-1269}, mesh = {Adult ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Comprehension ; *Environment ; Female ; Germany ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; *Life Expectancy ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Public Opinion ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Given the coincidence of the demographic change and climate change in the upcoming decades the aging voter gains increasing importance in climate change mitigation and adaptation processes. It is generally assumed that information status and comprehension of complex processes underlying climate change are prerequisites for adopting pro-environmental attitudes and taking pro-environmental actions. In a cross-sectional study, we investigated in how far (1) environmental knowledge and comprehension of feedback processes underlying climate change and (2) pro-environmental attitudes change as a function of age. Our sample consisted of 92 participants aged 25-75 years (mean age 49.4 years, SD 17.0). Age was negatively related to comprehension of system structures inherent to climate change, but positively associated with level of fear of consequences and anxiousness towards climate change. No significant relations were found between environmental knowledge and pro-environmental attitude. These results indicate that, albeit understanding of relevant structures of the climate system is less present in older age, age is not a limiting factor for being engaged in the complex dilemma of climate change. Results bear implications for the communication of climate change and pro-environmental actions in aging societies.}, }
@article {pmid25119703, year = {2014}, author = {Wanka, A and Arnberger, A and Allex, B and Eder, R and Hutter, HP and Wallner, P}, title = {The challenges posed by climate change to successful ageing.}, journal = {Zeitschrift fur Gerontologie und Geriatrie}, volume = {47}, number = {6}, pages = {468-474}, pmid = {25119703}, issn = {1435-1269}, mesh = {Age Distribution ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Austria/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Extreme Heat ; Female ; Geriatrics/*trends ; Healthcare Disparities/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Risk Factors ; Survival Analysis ; }, abstract = {Ever since the 2003 heat wave that caused 70,000 heat deaths, the dramatic consequences of climate change and rising temperatures in Europe have become an intensively researched topic. During heat waves, the older urban adult population is at highest risk. The STOPHOT project is the first investigation in Austria to establish a comprehensive knowledge base on heat perception, awareness of heat risks and adaptive/coping behaviours among older adults. The main research questions include: (1) Does climate change endanger the chances of successful ageing in urban areas? (2) How do age, social inequalities and the living environment intersect with environmental stressors in affecting successful ageing? (3) Which heat adaption strategies do older adults deploy and to what extent can they mediate heat stress in an effort to increase chances of successful ageing under the conditions of climate change? The results indicate that climate change and rising temperatures are in fact one important determinant of whether and how an older person can maintain well-being in later life. Older adults (> 65 years) with a low socio-economic status and poor health conditions, who tend to be socially isolated, are most at risk. However, no 'heat island effect' of the residential environment could be found. How much a person suffers from heat stress is highly dependent on the adaption strategies deployed. Adaption strategies of older urban residents mostly centred on body-related measures, such as drinking more or wearing lighter clothes, and indoor-centred measures, particularly avoiding the outdoors.}, }
@article {pmid25119701, year = {2014}, author = {Welzer, H and Kolland, F}, title = {[Aging and climate change: impact on health-related quality of life].}, journal = {Zeitschrift fur Gerontologie und Geriatrie}, volume = {47}, number = {6}, pages = {460-461}, doi = {10.1007/s00391-014-0672-3}, pmid = {25119701}, issn = {1435-1269}, mesh = {Age Distribution ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Chronic Disease/*epidemiology/*psychology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Health Services for the Aged/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Quality of Life/*psychology ; }, }
@article {pmid25119162, year = {2014}, author = {Kretchun, AM and Scheller, RM and Lucash, MS and Clark, KL and Hom, J and Van Tuyl, S}, title = {Predicted effects of gypsy moth defoliation and climate change on forest carbon dynamics in the New Jersey pine barrens.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {8}, pages = {e102531}, pmid = {25119162}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon/analysis/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fires ; *Forests ; *Herbivory ; Moths/*physiology ; New Jersey ; Nitrogen/analysis/metabolism ; Pinus/*physiology ; Quercus/*physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years.}, }
@article {pmid25118942, year = {2014}, author = {De Marco, A and Proietti, C and Cionni, I and Fischer, R and Screpanti, A and Vitale, M}, title = {Future impacts of nitrogen deposition and climate change scenarios on forest crown defoliation.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {194}, number = {}, pages = {171-180}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2014.07.027}, pmid = {25118942}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis/toxicity ; Air Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Forests ; Nitrogen/*analysis/toxicity ; Trees/drug effects/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Defoliation is an indicator for forest health in response to several stressors including air pollutants, and one of the most important parameters monitored in the International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests). The study aims to estimate crown defoliation in 2030, under three climate and one nitrogen deposition scenarios, based on evaluation of the most important factors (meteorological, nitrogen deposition and chemical soil parameters) affecting defoliation of twelve European tree species. The combination of favourable climate and nitrogen fertilization in the more adaptive species induces a generalized decrease of defoliation. On the other hand, severe climate change and drought are main causes of increase in defoliation in Quercus ilex and Fagus sylvatica, especially in Mediterranean area. Our results provide information on regional distribution of future defoliation, an important knowledge for identifying policies to counteract negative impacts of climate change and air pollution.}, }
@article {pmid25113456, year = {2014}, author = {Gago, J and Douthe, C and Florez-Sarasa, I and Escalona, JM and Galmes, J and Fernie, AR and Flexas, J and Medrano, H}, title = {Opportunities for improving leaf water use efficiency under climate change conditions.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {108-119}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2014.04.007}, pmid = {25113456}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {Biotechnology ; *Climate Change ; Plant Leaves/*physiology ; Water/*physiology ; }, abstract = {WUEi (intrinsic water use efficiency) is a complex (multi)-trait, that depends on several physiological processes, driving plant productivity and its relation with a changing environment. Climatic change predictions estimate increases in temperature and drought in the semi-arid regions, rendering improved water use efficiency is a mandatory objective to maintain the current global food supply. The aims of this review were (i) to identify through a meta-analysis the leaf traits mostly related to intrinsic water use efficiency (WUEi, the ratio between A - net photosynthesis and gs - stomatal conductance), based on a newly compiled dataset covering more than 200 species/varieties and 106 genus of C3 plants (ii) to describe the main potential targets for WUEi improvement via biotechnological manipulations and (iii) to introduce emergent and innovative technologies including UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) to scale up levels from leaf to whole plant water status. We confirmed that increases in gm/gs and Vcmax/gs ratios are systematically related with increases in WUEi maintained across species, habitats, and environmental conditions. Other emergent opportunities to improve WUEi are described such as the relationship between photosynthesis and respiration and their link with metabolomics. Finally, we outline our hypothesis that we are observing the advent of a "smart" agriculture, wherein new technologies, such as UAVs equipped with remote sensors will rapidly facilitate an efficient water use regulating the irrigation schedule and determination, under field conditions, of cultivars with improved water use efficiency. We, therefore, conclude that the multi-disciplinary challenge toward WUE has only just begun.}, }
@article {pmid25113455, year = {2014}, author = {Ogaya, R and Llusià, J and Barbeta, A and Asensio, D and Liu, D and Alessio, GA and Peñuelas, J}, title = {Foliar CO2 in a holm oak forest subjected to 15 years of climate change simulation.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {101-107}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2014.06.010}, pmid = {25113455}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Oleaceae/*metabolism ; Plant Leaves/*metabolism ; Quercus/*metabolism ; Random Allocation ; Seasons ; Spain ; Trees/metabolism ; }, abstract = {A long-term experimental drought to simulate future expected climatic conditions for Mediterranean forests, a 15% decrease in soil moisture for the following decades, was conducted in a holm oak forest since 1999. Net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance and leaf water potential were measured from 1999 to 2013 in Quercus ilex and Phillyrea latifolia, two co-dominant species of this forest. These measurements were performed in four plots, two of them received the drought treatment and the two other plots were control plots. The three studied variables decreased with increases in VPD and decreases in soil moisture in both species, but the decrease of leaf water potential during summer drought was larger in P. latifolia, whereas Q. ilex reached higher net photosynthetic rates and stomatal conductance values during rainy periods than P. latifolia. The drought treatment decreased ca. 8% the net photosynthetic rates during the overall studied period in both Q. ilex and P. latifolia, whereas there were just non-significant trends toward a decrease in leaf water potential and stomatal conductance induced by drought treatment. Future drier climate may lead to a decrease in the carbon balance of Mediterranean species, and some shrub species well resistant to drought could gain competitive advantage relative to Q. ilex, currently the dominant species of this forest.}, }
@article {pmid25113449, year = {2014}, author = {Flexas, J and Carriquí, M and Coopman, RE and Gago, J and Galmés, J and Martorell, S and Morales, F and Diaz-Espejo, A}, title = {Stomatal and mesophyll conductances to CO2 in different plant groups: underrated factors for predicting leaf photosynthesis responses to climate change?.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {41-48}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2014.06.011}, pmid = {25113449}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Cycadopsida/*metabolism ; Ferns/*metabolism ; Mesophyll Cells/metabolism ; *Models, Biological ; *Photosynthesis ; Plant Stomata/metabolism ; }, abstract = {The climate change conditions predicted for the end of the current century are expected to have an impact on the performance of plants under natural conditions. The variables which are foreseen to have a larger effect are increased CO2 concentration and temperature. Although it is generally considered CO2 assimilation rate could be increased by the increasing levels of CO2, it has been reported in previous studies that acclimation to high CO2 results in reductions of physiological parameters involved in photosynthesis, like the maximum carboxylation rate (Vc,max), stomatal conductance (gs) and mesophyll conductance to CO2 (gm). On the one hand, most of the previous modeling efforts have neglected the potential role played by the acclimation of gm to high CO2 and temperature. On the other hand, the effect of climate change on plant clades other than angiosperms, like ferns, has received little attention, and there are no studies evaluating the potential impact of increasing CO2 and temperature on these species. In this study we predicted responses of several representative species among angiosperms, gymnosperms and ferns to increasing CO2 and temperature. Our results show that species with lower photosynthetic capacity - such as some ferns and gymnosperms - would be proportionally more favored under these foreseen environmental conditions. The main reason for this difference is the lower diffusion limitation imposed by gs and gm in plants having high capacity for photosynthesis among the angiosperms, which reduces the positive effect of increasing CO2. However, this apparent advantage of low-diffusion species would be canceled if the two conductances - gs and gm - acclimate and are down regulated to high CO2, which is basically unknown, especially for gymnosperms and ferns. Hence, for a better understanding of different plant responses to future climate, studies are urged in which the actual photosynthetic response/acclimation to increased CO2 and temperature of ferns, gymnosperms and other under-evaluated plant groups is assessed.}, }
@article {pmid25113448, year = {2014}, author = {Morales, F and Pascual, I and Sánchez-Díaz, M and Aguirreolea, J and Irigoyen, JJ and Goicoechea, N and Antolín, MC and Oyarzun, M and Urdiain, A}, title = {Methodological advances: using greenhouses to simulate climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {30-40}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2014.03.018}, pmid = {25113448}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology/instrumentation/*methods ; Plants/metabolism ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Human activities are increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. Related to this global warming, periods of low water availability are also expected to increase. Thus, CO2 concentration, temperature and water availability are three of the main factors related to climate change that potentially may influence crops and ecosystems. In this report, we describe the use of growth chamber - greenhouses (GCG) and temperature gradient greenhouses (TGG) to simulate climate change scenarios and to investigate possible plant responses. In the GCG, CO2 concentration, temperature and water availability are set to act simultaneously, enabling comparison of a current situation with a future one. Other characteristics of the GCG are a relative large space of work, fine control of the relative humidity, plant fertirrigation and the possibility of light supplementation, within the photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) region and/or with ultraviolet-B (UV-B) light. In the TGG, the three above-mentioned factors can act independently or in interaction, enabling more mechanistic studies aimed to elucidate the limiting factor(s) responsible for a given plant response. Examples of experiments, including some aimed to study photosynthetic acclimation, a phenomenon that leads to decreased photosynthetic capacity under long-term exposures to elevated CO2, using GCG and TGG are reported.}, }
@article {pmid25113447, year = {2014}, author = {Irigoyen, JJ and Goicoechea, N and Antolín, MC and Pascual, I and Sánchez-Díaz, M and Aguirreolea, J and Morales, F}, title = {Growth, photosynthetic acclimation and yield quality in legumes under climate change simulations: an updated survey.}, journal = {Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology}, volume = {226}, number = {}, pages = {22-29}, doi = {10.1016/j.plantsci.2014.05.008}, pmid = {25113447}, issn = {1873-2259}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Medicago sativa/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; *Photosynthesis ; }, abstract = {Continued emissions of CO2, derived from human activities, increase atmospheric CO2 concentration. The CO2 rise stimulates plant growth and affects yield quality. Effects of elevated CO2 on legume quality depend on interactions with N2-fixing bacteria and mycorrhizal fungi. Growth at elevated CO2 increases photosynthesis under short-term exposures in C3 species. Under long-term exposures, however, plants generally acclimate to elevated CO2 decreasing their photosynthetic capacity. An updated survey of the literature indicates that a key factor, perhaps the most important, that characteristically influences this phenomenon, its occurrence and extent, is the plant source-sink balance. In legumes, the ability of exchanging C for N at nodule level with the N2-fixing symbionts creates an extra C sink that avoids the occurrence of photosynthetic acclimation. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi colonizing roots may also result in increased C sink, preventing photosynthetic acclimation. Defoliation (Anthyllis vulneraria, simulated grazing) or shoot cutting (alfalfa, usual management as forage) largely increases root/shoot ratio. During re-growth at elevated CO2, new shoots growth and nodule respiration function as strong C sinks that counteracts photosynthetic acclimation. In the presence of some limiting factor, the legumes response to elevated CO2 is weakened showing photosynthetic acclimation. This survey has identified limiting factors that include an insufficient N supply from bacterial strains, nutrient-poor soils, low P supply, excess temperature affecting photosynthesis and/or nodule activity, a genetically determined low nodulation capacity, an inability of species or varieties to increase growth (and therefore C sink) at elevated CO2 and a plant phenological state or season when plant growth is stopped.}, }
@article {pmid25112717, year = {2014}, author = {Ng, B and Cai, W and Walsh, K}, title = {The role of the SST-thermocline relationship in Indian Ocean Dipole skewness and its response to global warming.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {6034}, pmid = {25112717}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tends to have stronger cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the eastern Indian Ocean with greater impacts than warm SSTAs that occur during its negative phase. Two feedbacks have been suggested as the cause of positive IOD skewness, a positive Bjerknes feedback and a negative SST-cloud-radiation (SCR) feedback, but their relative importance is debated. Using inter-model statistics, we show that the most important process for IOD skewness is an asymmetry in the thermocline feedback, whereby SSTAs respond to thermocline depth anomalies more strongly during the positive phase than negative phase. This asymmetric thermocline feedback drives IOD skewness despite positive IODs receiving greater damping from the SCR feedback. In response to global warming, although the thermocline feedback strengthens, its asymmetry between positive and negative IODs weakens. This behaviour change explains the reduction in IOD skewness that many models display under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid25108998, year = {2014}, author = {}, title = {US releases climate change report.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {97}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {184}, pmid = {25108998}, issn = {0036-8504}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid25108995, year = {2014}, author = {Rhodes, CJ}, title = {Soil erosion, climate change and global food security: challenges and strategies.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {97}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {97-153}, pmid = {25108995}, issn = {0036-8504}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Electron Spin Resonance Spectroscopy ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; *Internationality ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {An overview is presented of the determined degree of global land degradation (principally occurring through soil erosion), with some consideration of its possible impact on global food security. Most determinations of the extent of land degradation (e.g. GLASOD) have been made on the basis of "expert judgement" and perceptions, as opposed to direct measurements of this multifactorial phenomenon. More recently, remote sensing measurements have been made which indicate that while some regions of the Earth are "browning" others are "greening". The latter effect is thought to be due to fertilisation of the growth of biomass by increasing levels of atmospheric CO2, and indeed the total amount of global biomass was observed to increase by 3.8% during the years 1981-2003. Nonetheless, 24% of the Earth's surface had occasioned some degree of degradation in the same time period. It appears that while long-term trends in NDVI (normalised difference vegetation index) derivatives are only broad indicators of land degradation, taken as a proxy, the NDVI/NPP (net primary productivity) trend is able to yield a benchmark that is globally consistent and to illuminate regions in which biologically significant changes are occurring. Thus, attention may be directed to where investigation and action at the ground level is required, i.e. to potential "hot spots" of land degradation and/or erosion. The severity of land degradation through soil erosion, and an according catastrophic threat to the survival of humanity may in part have been overstated, although the rising human population will impose inexorable demands for what the soil can provide. However the present system of industrialised agriculture would not be possible without plentiful provisions of cheap crude oil and natural gas to supply fuels, pesticides, herbicides and fertilisers. It is only on the basis of these inputs that it has been possible for the human population to rise above 7 billion. Hence, if the cheap oil and gas supply fails, global agriculture fails too, with obvious consequences. Accordingly, on grounds of stabilising the climate, preserving the environment, and ensuring the robustness of the global food supply, maintaining and building good soil, in particular improving its SOM content and hence its structure, is highly desirable. Those regions of the world that are significantly degraded are unlikely to support a massive population increase (e.g. Africa, whose population is predicted to grow from its present 1.1 billion to 4.2 billion by 2100), in which case a die-off or mass migration might be expected, if population control is not included explicitly in future plans to achieve food security.}, }
@article {pmid25104062, year = {2014}, author = {Buckley, J and Bridle, JR}, title = {Loss of adaptive variation during evolutionary responses to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {17}, number = {10}, pages = {1316-1325}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12340}, pmid = {25104062}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Butterflies/genetics/*physiology ; Cistaceae ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Genetic Fitness ; Geraniaceae ; Models, Statistical ; Oviposition ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The changes in species' geographical distribution demanded by climate change are often critically limited by the availability of key interacting species. In such cases, species' persistence will depend on the rapid evolution of biotic interactions. Understanding evolutionary limits to such adaptation is therefore crucial for predicting biological responses to environmental change. The recent poleward range expansion of the UK brown argus butterfly has been associated with a shift in female preference from its main host plant, rockrose (Cistaceae), onto Geraniaceae host plants throughout its new distribution. Using reciprocal transplants onto natural host plants across the UK range, we demonstrate reduced fitness of females from recently colonised Geraniaceae-dominated habitat when moved to ancestral rockrose habitats. By contrast, individuals from ancestral rockrose habitats show no reduction in fitness on Geraniaceae. Climate-driven range expansion in this species is therefore associated with the rapid evolution of biotic interactions and a significant loss of adaptive variation.}, }
@article {pmid25103159, year = {2014}, author = {Campbell, MM and Casterline, J and Castillo, F and Graves, A and Hall, TL and May, JF and Perlman, D and Potts, M and Speidel, JJ and Walsh, J and Wehner, MF and Zulu, EM}, title = {Population and climate change: who will the grand convergence leave behind?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Global health}, volume = {2}, number = {5}, pages = {e253-4}, doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(14)70021-X}, pmid = {25103159}, issn = {2214-109X}, mesh = {Africa ; Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Family Planning Services ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; }, }
@article {pmid25102756, year = {2015}, author = {Trathan, PN and García-Borboroglu, P and Boersma, D and Bost, CA and Crawford, RJ and Crossin, GT and Cuthbert, RJ and Dann, P and Davis, LS and De La Puente, S and Ellenberg, U and Lynch, HJ and Mattern, T and Pütz, K and Seddon, PJ and Trivelpiece, W and Wienecke, B}, title = {Pollution, habitat loss, fishing, and climate change as critical threats to penguins.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {31-41}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12349}, pmid = {25102756}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Fisheries ; Species Specificity ; Spheniscidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Cumulative human impacts across the world's oceans are considerable. We therefore examined a single model taxonomic group, the penguins (Spheniscidae), to explore how marine species and communities might be at risk of decline or extinction in the southern hemisphere. We sought to determine the most important threats to penguins and to suggest means to mitigate these threats. Our review has relevance to other taxonomic groups in the southern hemisphere and in northern latitudes, where human impacts are greater. Our review was based on an expert assessment and literature review of all 18 penguin species; 49 scientists contributed to the process. For each penguin species, we considered their range and distribution, population trends, and main anthropogenic threats over the past approximately 250 years. These threats were harvesting adults for oil, skin, and feathers and as bait for crab and rock lobster fisheries; harvesting of eggs; terrestrial habitat degradation; marine pollution; fisheries bycatch and resource competition; environmental variability and climate change; and toxic algal poisoning and disease. Habitat loss, pollution, and fishing, all factors humans can readily mitigate, remain the primary threats for penguin species. Their future resilience to further climate change impacts will almost certainly depend on addressing current threats to existing habitat degradation on land and at sea. We suggest protection of breeding habitat, linked to the designation of appropriately scaled marine reserves, including in the High Seas, will be critical for the future conservation of penguins. However, large-scale conservation zones are not always practical or politically feasible and other ecosystem-based management methods that include spatial zoning, bycatch mitigation, and robust harvest control must be developed to maintain marine biodiversity and ensure that ecosystem functioning is maintained across a variety of scales.}, }
@article {pmid25101060, year = {2014}, author = {Medina, A and Rodriguez, A and Magan, N}, title = {Effect of climate change on Aspergillus flavus and aflatoxin B1 production.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {348}, pmid = {25101060}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {This review considers the available information on the potential impact of key environmental factors and their interactions on the molecular ecology, growth and aflatoxin production by Aspergillus flavus in vitro and in maize grain. The recent studies which have been carried out to examine the impact of water activity × temperature on aflatoxin biosynthesis and phenotypic aflatoxin production are examined. These have shown that there is a direct relationship between the relative expression of key regulatory and structural genes under different environmental conditions which correlate directly with aflatoxin B1 production. A model has been developed to integrate the relative expression of 10 biosynthetic genes in the pathway, growth and aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) production which was validated under elevated temperature and water stress conditions. The effect of interacting conditions of aw × temperature × elevated CO2 (2 × and 3 × existing levels) are detailed for the first time. This suggests that while such interacting environmental conditions have little effect on growth they do have a significant impact on aflatoxin biosynthetic gene expression (structural aflD and regulatory aflR genes) and can significantly stimulate the production of AFB1. While the individual factors alone have an impact, it is the combined effect of these three abiotic factors which have an impact on mycotoxin production. This approach provides data which is necessary to help predict the real impacts of climate change on mycotoxigenic fungi.}, }
@article {pmid25099220, year = {2015}, author = {Bozec, YM and Alvarez-Filip, L and Mumby, PJ}, title = {The dynamics of architectural complexity on coral reefs under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {223-235}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12698}, pmid = {25099220}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*growth &amp; development ; Caribbean Region ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Coral Reefs ; Cyclonic Storms ; *Ecosystem ; Feeding Behavior/physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Perciformes/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {One striking feature of coral reef ecosystems is the complex benthic architecture which supports diverse and abundant fauna, particularly of reef fish. Reef-building corals are in decline worldwide, with a corresponding loss of live coral cover resulting in a loss of architectural complexity. Understanding the dynamics of the reef architecture is therefore important to envision the ability of corals to maintain functional habitats in an era of climate change. Here, we develop a mechanistic model of reef topographical complexity for contemporary Caribbean reefs. The model describes the dynamics of corals and other benthic taxa under climate-driven disturbances (hurricanes and coral bleaching). Corals have a simplified shape with explicit diameter and height, allowing species-specific calculation of their colony surface and volume. Growth and the mechanical (hurricanes) and biological erosion (parrotfish) of carbonate skeletons are important in driving the pace of extension/reduction in the upper reef surface, the net outcome being quantified by a simple surface roughness index (reef rugosity). The model accurately simulated the decadal changes of coral cover observed in Cozumel (Mexico) between 1984 and 2008, and provided a realistic hindcast of coral colony-scale (1-10 m) changing rugosity over the same period. We then projected future changes of Caribbean reef rugosity in response to global warming. Under severe and frequent thermal stress, the model predicted a dramatic loss of rugosity over the next two or three decades. Critically, reefs with managed parrotfish populations were able to delay the general loss of architectural complexity, as the benefits of grazing in maintaining living coral outweighed the bioerosion of dead coral skeletons. Overall, this model provides the first explicit projections of reef rugosity in a warming climate, and highlights the need of combining local (protecting and restoring high grazing) to global (mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions) interventions for the persistence of functional reef habitats.}, }
@article {pmid25098491, year = {2013}, author = {Adams, MS and Parisio, SJ}, title = {Biodiversity elements vulnerable to climate change in the Catskill High Peaks subecoregion (Ulster, Delaware, Sullivan, and Greene Counties, New York State).}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1298}, number = {}, pages = {86-94}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12267}, pmid = {25098491}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Betula ; *Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Geography ; New York ; Soil ; Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to affect biodiversity elements in the Catskill High Peaks subecoregion of New York State with effects that are difficult to predict. The present communication details the species and communities of greatest conservation concern in this portion of the state and makes recommendations for monitoring the most pressing climate change-biodiversity vulnerabilities. Specifically, we present sites for monitoring representative old-growth and successional stands of red spruce/balsam fir and northern hardwood matrix forests, cliff communities, ice cave talus communities, and both minerotrophic inland poor fen and ombrotrophic perched peatlands. The proposed monitoring protocols vary among the various sites, but all are quantitative and are designed to document patterns of change.}, }
@article {pmid25098379, year = {2013}, author = {Anderson, RP}, title = {A framework for using niche models to estimate impacts of climate change on species distributions.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1297}, number = {}, pages = {8-28}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12264}, pmid = {25098379}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Biota ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecology/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Predicting species geographic distributions in the future is an important yet exceptionally challenging endeavor. Overall, it requires a two-step process: (1) a niche model characterizing suitability, applied to projections of future conditions and linked to (2) a dispersal/demographic simulation estimating the species' future occupied distribution. Despite limitations, for the vast majority of species, correlative approaches are the most feasible avenue for building niche models. In addition to myriad technical issues regarding model building, researchers should follow critical principles for selecting predictor variables and occurrence data, demonstrating effective performance in prediction across space, and extrapolating into nonanalog conditions. Many of these principles relate directly to the niche space, dispersal/demographic noise, biotic noise, and human noise assumptions defined here. Issues requiring progress include modeling interactions between abiotic variables, integrating biotic variables, considering genetic heterogeneity, and quantifying uncertainty. Once built, the niche model identifying currently suitable conditions must be processed to approximate the areas that the species occupies. That estimate serves as a seed for the simulation of persistence, dispersal, and establishment in future suitable areas. The dispersal/demographic simulation also requires data regarding the species' dispersal ability and demography, scenarios for future land use, and the capability of considering multiple interacting species simultaneously.}, }
@article {pmid25098378, year = {2013}, author = {Angert, AL and LaDeau, SL and Ostfeld, RS}, title = {Climate change and species interactions: ways forward.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1297}, number = {}, pages = {1-7}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12286}, pmid = {25098378}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; New York ; }, abstract = {With ongoing and rapid climate change, ecologists are being challenged to predict how individual species will change in abundance and distribution, how biotic communities will change in structure and function, and the consequences of these climate-induced changes for ecosystem functioning. It is now well documented that indirect effects of climate change on species abundances and distributions, via climatic effects on interspecific interactions, can outweigh and even reverse the direct effects of climate. However, a clear framework for incorporating species interactions into projections of biological change remains elusive. To move forward, we suggest three priorities for the research community: (1) utilize tractable study systems as case studies to illustrate possible outcomes, test processes highlighted by theory, and feed back into modeling efforts; (2) develop a robust analytical framework that allows for better cross-scale linkages; and (3) determine over what time scales and for which systems prediction of biological responses to climate change is a useful and feasible goal. We end with a list of research questions that can guide future research to help understand, and hopefully mitigate, the negative effects of climate change on biota and the ecosystem services they provide.}, }
@article {pmid25091905, year = {2014}, author = {Carey, C}, title = {Climate change, extinction risks, and reproduction of terrestrial vertebrates.}, journal = {Advances in experimental medicine and biology}, volume = {753}, number = {}, pages = {35-54}, doi = {10.1007/978-1-4939-0820-2_3}, pmid = {25091905}, issn = {0065-2598}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Reproduction ; Risk ; }, abstract = {This review includes a broad, but superficial, summary of our understanding about current and future climate changes, the predictions about how these changes will likely affect the risks of extinction of organisms, and how current climate changes are already affecting reproduction in terrestrial vertebrates. Many organisms have become extinct in the last century, but habitat destruction, disease and man-made factors other than climate change have been implicated as the causal factor in almost all of these. Reproduction is certain to be negatively impacted in all vertebrate groups for a variety of reasons, such as direct thermal and hydric effects on mortality of embryos, mismatches between optimal availability of food supplies, frequently determined by temperature, and reproductive capacities, sometimes determined by rigid factors such as photoperiod, and disappearance of appropriate foraging opportunities, such as melting sea ice. The numbers of studies documenting correlations between climate changes and biological phenomena are rapidly increasing, but more direct information about the consequences of these changes for species survival and ecosystem health is needed than is currently available.}, }
@article {pmid25091428, year = {2014}, author = {Matso, KE and Becker, ML}, title = {What can funders do to better link science with decisions? Case studies of coastal communities and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {54}, number = {6}, pages = {1356-1371}, pmid = {25091428}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Competitive Bidding ; Conservation of Energy Resources/economics/*methods ; *Decision Making ; Ecosystem ; *Financial Support ; Knowledge ; *Research ; }, abstract = {Many reports and studies have noted that a significant portion of problem-oriented coastal science does not actually link to decisions. Here, three competitively funded project case studies are studied to determine what funders can and should do to better link science with decisions. The qualitative analysis used for this study indicates that the studied program was seen as being unusually attentive to the issue of linking science to decisions, as opposed to simply generating new knowledge. Nevertheless, much of the data indicate that funders can and should do more. Three ideas figured most prominently in the qualitative data: (1) funders should do more to ensure that the problem itself is defined more thoroughly with people who are envisioned as potential users of the science; (2) funders need to allocate more resources and attention to communicating effectively (with users) throughout the project; and (3) funders need to demand more engagement of users throughout the project. These findings have important implications for how funders review and support science, especially when competitive processes are used. Most importantly, funders should adjust what kind of science they ask for. Secondly, funders need to change who is involved in the review process. Currently, review processes focus on knowledge generation, which means that the reviewers themselves have expertise in that area. Instead, review panels should be balanced between those who focus on knowledge generation and those who focus on linking knowledge to decisions; this is a separate but critical discipline currently left out of the review process.}, }
@article {pmid25091071, year = {2014}, author = {Haworth, EA}, title = {The role of public health in climate change and sustainability: what should the Australian public health response be?.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {38}, number = {4}, pages = {311-313}, doi = {10.1111/1753-6405.12255}, pmid = {25091071}, issn = {1753-6405}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Humans ; Public Health/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid25088573, year = {2014}, author = {Milinski, M}, title = {Modeling a polycentric approach to the problem of climate change: comment on "climate change governance, cooperation and self-organization" by Pacheco, Vasconcelos &amp; Santos.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {593-594}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2014.07.013}, pmid = {25088573}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25082674, year = {2014}, author = {Pala, C}, title = {Climate change. Warming may not swamp islands.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {345}, number = {6196}, pages = {496-497}, doi = {10.1126/science.345.6196.496}, pmid = {25082674}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa ; *Global Warming ; *Islands ; Micronesia ; }, }
@article {pmid25081003, year = {2014}, author = {Zhou, S and Yuan, X and Peng, S and Yue, J and Wang, X and Liu, H and Williams, DD}, title = {Groundwater-surface water interactions in the hyporheic zone under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {21}, number = {24}, pages = {13943-13955}, pmid = {25081003}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fresh Water/chemistry ; Groundwater/*chemistry ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Slight changes in climate, such as the rise of temperature or alterations of precipitation and evaporation, will dramatically influence nearly all freshwater and climate-related hydrological behavior on a global scale. The hyporheic zone (HZ), where groundwater (GW) and surface waters (SW) interact, is characterized by permeable sediments, low flow velocities, and gradients of physical, chemical, and biological characteristics along the exchange flows. Hyporheic metabolism, that is biogeochemical reactions within the HZ as well as various processes that exchange substances and energy with adjoining systems, is correlated with hyporheic organisms, habitats, and the organic matter (OM) supplied from GW and SW, which will inevitably be influenced by climate-related variations. The characteristics of the HZ in acting as a transition zone and in filtering and purifying exchanged water will be lost, resulting in a weakening of the self-purification capacity of natural water bodies. Thus, as human disturbances intensify in the future, GW and SW pollution will become a greater challenge for mankind than ever before. Biogeochemical processes in the HZ may favor the release of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4) under climate change scenarios. Future water resource management should consider the integrity of aquatic systems as a whole, including the HZ, rather than independently focusing on SW and GW.}, }
@article {pmid25075706, year = {2014}, author = {Anderko, L and Chalupka, S}, title = {Climate change and health.}, journal = {The American journal of nursing}, volume = {114}, number = {8}, pages = {67-69}, doi = {10.1097/01.NAJ.0000453051.39242.14}, pmid = {25075706}, issn = {1538-7488}, mesh = {Awareness ; *Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25072266, year = {2014}, author = {Husaini, AM}, title = {Challenges of climate change: omics-based biology of saffron plants and organic agricultural biotechnology for sustainable saffron production.}, journal = {GM crops &amp; food}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {97-105}, pmid = {25072266}, issn = {2164-5701}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Biotechnology ; *Climate Change ; Crocus/*genetics/microbiology/physiology ; Genome, Plant ; Mycorrhizae/physiology ; Plants, Genetically Modified/physiology ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Kashmir Valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as "Karewas"), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas, faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a 'niche crop' and is a recognized "geographical indication," growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues.}, }
@article {pmid25070769, year = {2015}, author = {Wallington, TJ and Sulbaek Andersen, MP and Nielsen, OJ}, title = {Atmospheric chemistry of short-chain haloolefins: photochemical ozone creation potentials (POCPs), global warming potentials (GWPs), and ozone depletion potentials (ODPs).}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {129}, number = {}, pages = {135-141}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2014.06.092}, pmid = {25070769}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*chemistry ; Alkenes/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hydrocarbons, Halogenated/*chemistry ; Ozone/*analysis ; *Ozone Depletion ; }, abstract = {Short-chain haloolefins are being introduced as replacements for saturated halocarbons. The unifying chemical feature of haloolefins is the presence of a CC double bond which causes the atmospheric lifetimes to be significantly shorter than for the analogous saturated compounds. We discuss the atmospheric lifetimes, photochemical ozone creation potentials (POCPs), global warming potentials (GWPs), and ozone depletion potentials (ODPs) of haloolefins. The commercially relevant short-chain haloolefins CF3CFCH2 (1234yf), trans-CF3CHCHF (1234ze(Z)), CF3CFCF2 (1216), cis-CF3CHCHCl (1233zd(Z)), and trans-CF3CHCHCl (1233zd(E)) have short atmospheric lifetimes (days to weeks), negligible POCPs, negligible GWPs, and ODPs which do not differ materially from zero. In the concentrations expected in the environment their atmospheric degradation products will have a negligible impact on ecosystems. CF3CFCH2 (1234yf), trans-CF3CHCHF (1234ze(Z)), CF3CFCF2 (1216), cis-CF3CHCHCl (1233zd(Z)), and trans-CF3CHCHCl (1233zd(E)) are environmentally acceptable.}, }
@article {pmid25069904, year = {2014}, author = {Landis, WG and Rohr, JR and Moe, SJ and Balbus, JM and Clements, W and Fritz, A and Helm, R and Hickey, C and Hooper, M and Stahl, RG and Stauber, J}, title = {Global climate change and contaminants, a call to arms not yet heard?.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {483-484}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.1568}, pmid = {25069904}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environment ; *Foundations ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid25066543, year = {2014}, author = {Berkhout, BW and Lloyd, MM and Poulin, R and Studer, A}, title = {Variation among genotypes in responses to increasing temperature in a marine parasite: evolutionary potential in the face of global warming?.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology}, volume = {44}, number = {13}, pages = {1019-1027}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijpara.2014.07.002}, pmid = {25066543}, issn = {1879-0135}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Cercaria/physiology ; *Genetic Variation ; Genotype ; *Global Warming ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Snails/*parasitology ; *Temperature ; Trematoda/*genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climates are changing worldwide, and populations are under selection to adapt to these changes. Changing temperature, in particular, can directly impact ectotherms and their parasites, with potential consequences for whole ecosystems. The potential of parasite populations to adapt to climate change largely depends on the amount of genetic variation they possess in their responses to environmental fluctuations. This study is, to our knowledge, the first to look at differences among parasite genotypes in response to temperature, with the goal of quantifying the extent of variation among conspecifics in their responses to increasing temperature. Snails infected with single genotypes of the trematode Maritrema novaezealandensis were sequentially acclimatised to two different temperatures, 'current' (15°C) and 'elevated' (20°C), over long periods. These temperatures are based on current average field conditions in the natural habitat and those predicted to occur during the next few decades. The output and activity of cercariae (free-swimming infective stages emerging from snails) were assessed for each genotype at each temperature. The results indicate that, on average, both cercarial output and activity are higher at the elevated acclimation temperature. More importantly, the output and activity of cercariae are strongly influenced by a genotype-by-temperature interaction, such that different genotypes show different responses to increasing temperature. Both the magnitude and direction (increase or decrease) of responses to temperature varied widely among genotypes. Therefore, there is much potential for natural selection to act on this variation, and predicting how the trematode M. novaezealandensis will respond to the climate changes predicted for the next century will prove challenging.}, }
@article {pmid25064798, year = {2014}, author = {Ertürk, A and Ekdal, A and Gürel, M and Karakaya, N and Guzel, C and Gönenç, E}, title = {Evaluating the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in a small Mediterranean watershed.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {499}, number = {}, pages = {437-447}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.07.001}, pmid = {25064798}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Groundwater/*analysis ; Turkey ; Water Resources/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Western Mediterranean Region of Turkey is subject to considerable impacts of climate change that may adversely affect the water resources. Decrease in annual precipitation and winter precipitation as well as increase in temperatures are observed since 1960s. In this study, the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in part of Köyceğiz-Dalyan Watershed was evaluated. Evaluation was done by quantifying the impacts of climate change on the water budget components. Hydrological modeling was conducted with SWAT model which was calibrated and validated successfully. Climate change and land use scenarios were used to calculate the present and future climate change impacts on water budgets. According to the simulation results, almost all water budget components have decreased. SWAT was able to allocate less irrigation water because of the decrease of overall water due to the climate change. This resulted in an increase of water stressed days and temperature stressed days whereas crop yields have decreased according to the simulation results. The results indicated that lack of water is expected to be a problem in the future. In this manner, investigations on switching to more efficient irrigation methods and to crops with less water consumption are recommended as adaptation measures to climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid25059822, year = {2015}, author = {Eigenbrod, F and Gonzalez, P and Dash, J and Steyl, I}, title = {Vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change moderated by habitat intactness.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {275-286}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12669}, pmid = {25059822}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {The combined effects of climate change and habitat loss represent a major threat to species and ecosystems around the world. Here, we analyse the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change based on current levels of habitat intactness and vulnerability to biome shifts, using multiple measures of habitat intactness at two spatial scales. We show that the global extent of refugia depends highly on the definition of habitat intactness and spatial scale of the analysis of intactness. Globally, 28% of terrestrial vegetated area can be considered refugia if all natural vegetated land cover is considered. This, however, drops to 17% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 48×48 km are considered and to 10% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 4.8×4.8 km are considered. Our results suggest that, in regions where relatively large, intact wilderness areas remain (e.g. Africa, Australia, boreal regions, South America), conservation of the remaining large-scale refugia is the priority. In human-dominated landscapes, (e.g. most of Europe, much of North America and Southeast Asia), focusing on finer scale refugia is a priority because large-scale wilderness refugia simply no longer exist. Action to conserve such refugia is particularly urgent since only 1 to 2% of global terrestrial vegetated area is classified as refugia and at least 50% covered by the global protected area network.}, }
@article {pmid25056854, year = {2014}, author = {Rannow, S and Förster, M}, title = {Managing protected areas under climate change--diverse management for biodiversity.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {669-670}, pmid = {25056854}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, }
@article {pmid25056620, year = {2014}, author = {van Heerwaarden, B and Sgrò, CM}, title = {Is adaptation to climate change really constrained in niche specialists?.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {281}, number = {1790}, pages = {}, pmid = {25056620}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Animals ; Australia ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Dehydration ; Drosophila/*genetics/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; Forests ; *Genetic Variation ; Humidity/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Species with restricted distributions make up the vast majority of biodiversity. Recent evidence suggests that Drosophila species with restricted tropical distributions lack genetic variation in the key trait of desiccation resistance. It has therefore been predicted that tropically restricted species will be limited in their evolutionary response to future climatic changes and will face higher risks of extinction. However, these assessments have been made using extreme levels of desiccation stress (less than 10% relative humidity (RH)) that extend well beyond the changes projected for the wet tropics under climate change scenarios over the next 30 years. Here, we show that significant evolutionary responses to less extreme (35% RH) but more ecologically realistic levels of climatic change and desiccation stress are in fact possible in two species of rainforest restricted Drosophila. Evolution may indeed be an important means by which sensitive rainforest-restricted species are able to mitigate the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25056127, year = {2015}, author = {Lou, W and Sun, S and Wu, L and Sun, K}, title = {Effects of climate change on the economic output of the Longjing-43 tea tree, 1972-2013.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {59}, number = {5}, pages = {593-603}, pmid = {25056127}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Camellia sinensis/*growth &amp; development ; China ; Climate Change/*economics ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Economic ; Plant Leaves/*growth &amp; development ; Tea/*economics ; }, abstract = {Based on phenological and economic output models established and meteorological data from 1972 to 2013, changes in the phenology, frost risk, and economic output of the Longjing-43 tea tree in the Yuezhou Longjing tea production area of China were evaluated. As the local climate has changed, the beginning dates of tea bud and leaf plucking of this cultivar in all five counties studied has advanced significantly by -1.28 to -0.88 days/decade, with no significant change in the risk of frost. The main tea-producing stages in the tea production cycle include the plucking periods for superfine, grade 1, and grade 2 buds and leaves. Among the five bud and leaf grades, the economic output of the plucking periods for superfine and grade 1 decreased significantly, that for grade 2 showed no significant change, and those for grades 3 and 4 increased significantly. The economic output of large-area tea plantations employing an average of 45 workers per hectare and producing superfine to grade 2 buds and leaves were significantly reduced by 6,745-8,829 yuan/decade/ha, depending on the county. Those tea farmers who planted tea trees on their own small land holdings and produced superfine to grade 4 tea buds and leaves themselves experienced no significant decline in economic output.}, }
@article {pmid25056064, year = {2014}, author = {Forcada, J and Hoffman, JI}, title = {Climate change selects for heterozygosity in a declining fur seal population.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {511}, number = {7510}, pages = {462-465}, pmid = {25056064}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Birth Weight ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Fur Seals/*genetics ; Genetic Variation/genetics ; *Heterozygote ; Homozygote ; Phenotype ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Global environmental change is expected to alter selection pressures in many biological systems, but the long-term molecular and life history data required to quantify changes in selection are rare. An unusual opportunity is afforded by three decades of individual-based data collected from a declining population of Antarctic fur seals in the South Atlantic. Here, climate change has reduced prey availability and caused a significant decline in seal birth weight. However, the mean age and size of females recruiting into the breeding population are increasing. We show that such females have significantly higher heterozygosity (a measure of within-individual genetic variation) than their non-recruiting siblings and their own mothers. Thus, breeding female heterozygosity has increased by 8.5% per generation over the last two decades. Nonetheless, as heterozygosity is not inherited from mothers to daughters, substantial heterozygote advantage is not transmitted from one generation to the next and the decreasing viability of homozygous individuals causes the population to decline. Our results provide compelling evidence that selection due to climate change is intensifying, with far-reaching consequences for demography as well as phenotypic and genetic variation.}, }
@article {pmid25055023, year = {2014}, author = {Hällfors, MH and Vaara, EM and Hyvärinen, M and Oksanen, M and Schulman, LE and Siipi, H and Lehvävirta, S}, title = {Coming to terms with the concept of moving species threatened by climate change - a systematic review of the terminology and definitions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {e102979}, pmid = {25055023}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Terminology as Topic ; }, abstract = {Intentional moving of species threatened by climate change is actively being discussed as a conservation approach. The debate, empirical studies, and policy development, however, are impeded by an inconsistent articulation of the idea. The discrepancy is demonstrated by the varying use of terms, such as assisted migration, assisted colonisation, or managed relocation, and their multiple definitions. Since this conservation approach is novel, and may for instance lead to legislative changes, it is important to aim for terminological consistency. The objective of this study is to analyse the suitability of terms and definitions used when discussing the moving of organisms as a response to climate change. An extensive literature search and review of the material (868 scientific publications) was conducted for finding hitherto used terms (N = 40) and definitions (N = 75), and these were analysed for their suitability. Based on the findings, it is argued that an appropriate term for a conservation approach relating to aiding the movement of organisms harmed by climate change is assisted migration defined as follows: Assisted migration means safeguarding biological diversity through the translocation of representatives of a species or population harmed by climate change to an area outside the indigenous range of that unit where it would be predicted to move as climate changes, were it not for anthropogenic dispersal barriers or lack of time. The differences between assisted migration and other conservation translocations are also discussed. A wide adoption of the clear and distinctive term and definition provided would allow more focused research on the topic and enable consistent implementation as practitioners could have the same understanding of the concept.}, }
@article {pmid25054549, year = {2014}, author = {Korkala, EA and Hugg, TT and Jaakkola, JJ}, title = {Voluntary climate change mitigation actions of young adults: a classification of mitigators through latent class analysis.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {e102072}, pmid = {25054549}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Chi-Square Distribution ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Educational Status ; Environmental Policy ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Marital Status ; *Public Opinion ; Social Class ; *Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Encouraging individuals to take action is important for the overall success of climate change mitigation. Campaigns promoting climate change mitigation could address particular groups of the population on the basis of what kind of mitigation actions the group is already taking. To increase the knowledge of such groups performing similar mitigation actions we conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in Finland. The study population comprised 1623 young adults who returned a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 64%). Our aims were to identify groups of people engaged in similar climate change mitigation actions and to study the gender differences in the grouping. We also determined if socio-demographic characteristics can predict group membership. We performed latent class analysis using 14 mitigation actions as manifest variables. Three classes were identified among men: the Inactive (26%), the Semi-active (63%) and the Active (11%) and two classes among women: the Semi-active (72%) and the Active (28%). The Active among both genders were likely to have mitigated climate change through several actions, such as recycling, using environmentally friendly products, preferring public transport, and conserving energy. The Semi-Active had most probably recycled and preferred public transport because of climate change. The Inactive, a class identified among men only, had very probably done nothing to mitigate climate change. Among males, being single or divorced predicted little involvement in climate change mitigation. Among females, those without tertiary degree and those with annual income €≥16801 were less involved in climate change mitigation. Our results illustrate to what extent young adults are engaged in climate change mitigation, which factors predict little involvement in mitigation and give insight to which segments of the public could be the audiences of targeted mitigation campaigns.}, }
@article {pmid25051508, year = {2014}, author = {Verheggen, B and Strengers, B and Cook, J and van Dorland, R and Vringer, K and Peters, J and Visser, H and Meyer, L}, title = {Scientists' views about attribution of global warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {16}, pages = {8963-8971}, doi = {10.1021/es501998e}, pmid = {25051508}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Aerosols ; Climate ; Ecology/*methods ; Gases ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents' quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)-providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution-may have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents' views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25047568, year = {2014}, author = {Milfont, TL and Evans, L and Sibley, CG and Ries, J and Cunningham, A}, title = {Proximity to coast is linked to climate change belief.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {e103180}, pmid = {25047568}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Culture ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Psychologists have examined the many psychological barriers to both climate change belief and concern. One barrier is the belief that climate change is too uncertain, and likely to happen in distant places and times, to people unlike oneself. Related to this perceived psychological distance of climate change, studies have shown that direct experience of the effects of climate change increases climate change concern. The present study examined the relationship between physical proximity to the coastline and climate change belief, as proximity may be related to experiencing or anticipating the effects of climate change such as sea-level rise. We show, in a national probability sample of 5,815 New Zealanders, that people living in closer proximity to the shoreline expressed greater belief that climate change is real and greater support for government regulation of carbon emissions. This proximity effect held when adjusting for height above sea level and regional poverty. The model also included individual differences in respondents' sex, age, education, political orientation, and wealth. The results indicate that physical place plays a role in the psychological acceptance of climate change, perhaps because the effects of climate change become more concrete and local.}, }
@article {pmid25047275, year = {2014}, author = {Duguma, LA and Minang, PA and van Noordwijk, M}, title = {Climate change mitigation and adaptation in the land use sector: from complementarity to synergy.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {54}, number = {3}, pages = {420-432}, pmid = {25047275}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environment ; Humans ; Public Policy ; Tanzania ; }, abstract = {Currently, mitigation and adaptation measures are handled separately, due to differences in priorities for the measures and segregated planning and implementation policies at international and national levels. There is a growing argument that synergistic approaches to adaptation and mitigation could bring substantial benefits at multiple scales in the land use sector. Nonetheless, efforts to implement synergies between adaptation and mitigation measures are rare due to the weak conceptual framing of the approach and constraining policy issues. In this paper, we explore the attributes of synergy and the necessary enabling conditions and discuss, as an example, experience with the Ngitili system in Tanzania that serves both adaptation and mitigation functions. An in-depth look into the current practices suggests that more emphasis is laid on complementarity-i.e., mitigation projects providing adaptation co-benefits and vice versa rather than on synergy. Unlike complementarity, synergy should emphasize functionally sustainable landscape systems in which adaptation and mitigation are optimized as part of multiple functions. We argue that the current practice of seeking co-benefits (complementarity) is a necessary but insufficient step toward addressing synergy. Moving forward from complementarity will require a paradigm shift from current compartmentalization between mitigation and adaptation to systems thinking at landscape scale. However, enabling policy, institutional, and investment conditions need to be developed at global, national, and local levels to achieve synergistic goals.}, }
@article {pmid25046633, year = {2014}, author = {Semenza, JC}, title = {Climate change and human health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {7347-7353}, pmid = {25046633}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/toxicity ; *Climate Change ; Health ; Heat Stress Disorders ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Ozone/toxicity ; }, }
@article {pmid25044507, year = {2015}, author = {Lefort, S and Aumont, O and Bopp, L and Arsouze, T and Gehlen, M and Maury, O}, title = {Spatial and body-size dependent response of marine pelagic communities to projected global climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {154-164}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12679}, pmid = {25044507}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; Biomass ; Biota ; Body Size/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior ; Seawater/chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Temperature, oxygen, and food availability directly affect marine life. Climate models project a global warming of the ocean's surface (~+3 °C), a de-oxygenation of the ocean's interior (~-3%) and a decrease in total marine net primary production (~-8%) under the 'business as usual' climate change scenario (RCP8.5). We estimated the effects of these changes on biological communities using a coupled biogeochemical (PISCES)--ecosystems (APECOSM) model forced by the physical outputs of the last generation of the IPSL-CM Earth System Model. The APECOSM model is a size-structured bio-energetic model that simulates the 3D dynamical distributions of three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, mesopelagic, and migratory) under the effects of multiple environmental factors. The PISCES-APECOSM model ran from 1850 to 2100 under historical forcing followed by RCP8.5. Our RCP8.5 simulation highlights significant changes in the spatial distribution, biomass, and maximum body-size of the simulated pelagic communities. Biomass and maximum body-size increase at high latitude over the course of the century, reflecting the capacity of marine organisms to respond to new suitable environment. At low- and midlatitude, biomass and maximum body-size strongly decrease. In those regions, large organisms cannot maintain their high metabolic needs because of limited and declining food availability. This resource reduction enhances the competition and modifies the biomass distribution among and within the three communities: the proportion of small organisms increases in the three communities and the migrant community that initially comprised a higher proportion of small organisms is favored. The greater resilience of small body-size organisms resides in their capacity to fulfill their metabolic needs under reduced energy supply and is further favored by the release of predation pressure due to the decline of large organisms. These results suggest that small body-size organisms might be more resilient to climate change than large ones.}, }
@article {pmid25044467, year = {2015}, author = {Mazziotta, A and Triviño, M and Tikkanen, OP and Kouki, J and Strandman, H and Mönkkönen, M}, title = {Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {637-651}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12677}, pmid = {25044467}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Finland ; Models, Biological ; *Taiga ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid25040506, year = {2014}, author = {Tingley, MW and Darling, ES and Wilcove, DS}, title = {Fine- and coarse-filter conservation strategies in a time of climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1322}, number = {}, pages = {92-109}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12484}, pmid = {25040506}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Environment ; }, abstract = {As species adapt to a changing climate, so too must humans adapt to a new conservation landscape. Classical frameworks have distinguished between fine- and coarse-filter conservation strategies, focusing on conserving either the species or the landscapes, respectively, that together define extant biodiversity. Adapting this framework for climate change, conservationists are using fine-filter strategies to assess species vulnerability and prioritize the most vulnerable species for conservation actions. Coarse-filter strategies seek to conserve either key sites as determined by natural elements unaffected by climate change, or sites with low climate velocity that are expected to be refugia for climate-displaced species. Novel approaches combine coarse- and fine-scale approaches--for example, prioritizing species within pretargeted landscapes--and accommodate the difficult reality of multiple interacting stressors. By taking a diversified approach to conservation actions and decisions, conservationists can hedge against uncertainty, take advantage of new methods and information, and tailor actions to the unique needs and limitations of places, thereby ensuring that the biodiversity show will go on.}, }
@article {pmid25036003, year = {2014}, author = {Benmarhnia, T and Sottile, MF and Plante, C and Brand, A and Casati, B and Fournier, M and Smargiassi, A}, title = {Variability in temperature-related mortality projections under climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {122}, number = {12}, pages = {1293-1298}, pmid = {25036003}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Cause of Death/trends ; *Climate Change ; Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Predictive Value of Tests ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Most studies that have assessed impacts on mortality of future temperature increases have relied on a small number of simulations and have not addressed the variability and sources of uncertainty in their mortality projections.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We assessed the variability of temperature projections and dependent future mortality distributions, using a large panel of temperature simulations based on different climate models and emission scenarios.<br><br>METHODS: We used historical data from 1990 through 2007 for Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and Poisson regression models to estimate relative risks (RR) for daily nonaccidental mortality in association with three different daily temperature metrics (mean, minimum, and maximum temperature) during June through August. To estimate future numbers of deaths attributable to ambient temperatures and the uncertainty of the estimates, we used 32 different simulations of daily temperatures for June-August 2020-2037 derived from three global climate models (GCMs) and a Canadian regional climate model with three sets of RRs (one based on the observed historical data, and two on bootstrap samples that generated the 95% CI of the attributable number (AN) of deaths). We then used analysis of covariance to evaluate the influence of the simulation, the projected year, and the sets of RRs used to derive the attributable numbers of deaths.<br><br>RESULTS: We found that < 1% of the variability in the distributions of simulated temperature for June-August of 2020-2037 was explained by differences among the simulations. Estimated ANs for 2020-2037 ranged from 34 to 174 per summer (i.e., June-August). Most of the variability in mortality projections (38%) was related to the temperature-mortality RR used to estimate the ANs.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The choice of the RR estimate for the association between temperature and mortality may be important to reduce uncertainty in mortality projections.}, }
@article {pmid25035805, year = {2014}, author = {Ooi, MK and Denham, AJ and Santana, VM and Auld, TD}, title = {Temperature thresholds of physically dormant seeds and plant functional response to fire: variation among species and relative impact of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {656-671}, pmid = {25035805}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Variation in dormancy thresholds among species is rarely studied but may provide a basis to better understand the mechanisms controlling population persistence. Incorporating dormancy-breaking temperature thresholds into existing trait frameworks could improve predictions regarding seed bank persistence, and subsequently species resilience in response to fire, climate change and anthropogenic management. A key ecological strategy for many species from fire-prone ecosystems is the possession of a long-lived seed bank, ensuring recovery after fire. Physical dormancy is dominant in these ecosystems and maintaining this dormancy is directly linked to seed bank persistence. We identified a suite of seed-related factors relevant to maintaining populations in fire-prone regions for 14 co-occurring physically dormant species. We measured variation in initial levels of dormancy and then applied experimental heating treatments, based on current seasonal temperatures and those occurring during fires, to seeds of all study species. Additionally, higher seasonal temperature treatments were applied to assess response of seeds to temperatures projected under future climate scenarios. Levels of germination response and mortality were determined to assess how tightly germination response was bound to either fire or seasonal cues. Six species were found to have dormancy cues bound to temperatures that only occur during fires (80°C and above) and were grouped as having obligate pyrogenic dormancy release. The remaining species, classified as having facultative pyrogenic dormancy, had lower temperature dormancy thresholds and committed at least 30% of seeds to germinate after summer-temperature treatments. Evidence from this study supports including dormancy-breaking temperature thresholds as an attribute for identifying functional types. High temperature thresholds for breaking dormancy, found in our obligate pyrogenic group, appear to be a fire-adapted trait, while we predict that species in the facultative group are most at risk to increased seed bank decay resulting from elevated soil temperatures under projected climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25033404, year = {2014}, author = {Zhang, W and Ming, Q and Shi, Z and Chen, G and Niu, J and Lei, G and Chang, F and Zhang, H}, title = {Lake sediment records on climate change and human activities in the Xingyun Lake catchment, SW China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {e102167}, pmid = {25033404}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis/chemistry ; China ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Geologic Sediments/analysis/*chemistry ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Lakes/analysis/*chemistry ; Nitrogen/analysis/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Sediments from Xinyun Lake in central Yunnan, southwest China, provide a record of environmental history since the Holocene. With the application of multi-proxy indicators (total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), δ13C and δ15N isotopes, C/N ratio, grain size, magnetic susceptibility (MS) and CaCO3 content), as well as accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C datings, four major climatic stages during the Holocene have been identified in Xingyun's catchment. A marked increase in lacustrine palaeoproductivity occurred from 11.06 to 9.98 cal. ka BP, which likely resulted from an enhanced Asian southwest monsoon and warm-humid climate. Between 9.98 and 5.93 cal. ka BP, a gradually increased lake level might have reached the optimum water depth, causing a marked decline in coverage by aquatic plants and lake productivity of the lake. This was caused by strong Asian southwest monsoon, and coincided with the global Holocene Optimum. During the period of 5.60-1.35 cal. ka BP, it resulted in a warm and dry climate at this stage, which is comparable to the aridification of India during the mid- and late Holocene. The intensifying human activity and land-use in the lake catchment since the early Tang Dynasty (∼1.35 cal. ka BP) were associated with the ancient Dian culture within Xingyun's catchment. The extensive deforestation and development of agriculture in the lake catchment caused heavy soil loss. Our study clearly shows that long-term human activities and land-use change have strongly impacted the evolution of the lake environment and therefore modulated the sediment records of the regional climate in central Yunnan for more than one thousand years.}, }
@article {pmid25027916, year = {2014}, author = {Harding, S}, title = {Climate change may be debatable, but promoting sustainability is not.}, journal = {Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987)}, volume = {28}, number = {46}, pages = {34}, doi = {10.7748/ns.28.46.34.s41}, pmid = {25027916}, issn = {2047-9018}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid25027780, year = {2014}, author = {Huang, Y and Wang, F and Li, Y and Cai, T}, title = {Multi-model ensemble simulation and projection in the climate change in the Mekong River Basin. Part I: temperature.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {186}, number = {11}, pages = {7513-7523}, pmid = {25027780}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Forecasting ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/*chemistry ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {This paper evaluates the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating annual and decadal temperature in the Mekong River Basin from 1950 to 2005. By use of Bayesian multi-model averaging method, the future projection of temperature variation under different scenarios are also analyzed. The results show, the performances of climate model are more accurate in space than time, the model can catch the warming characteristics in the Mekong river Basin, but the accuracy of simulation is not good enough. Bayesian multi-model averaging method can improve the annual and decadal temperature simulation when compared to a single result. The projected temperature in Mekong River will increase by 0.88 °C/100 year, 2.15 °C/100 year and 4.96 °C/100 year for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, over the twenty-first century. The findings will be beneficial for local people and policy-maker to formulate regional strategies against the potential menaces of warming scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid25020098, year = {2014}, author = {Tram Vo, P and Ngo, HH and Guo, W and Zhou, JL and Nguyen, PD and Listowski, A and Wang, XC}, title = {A mini-review on the impacts of climate change on wastewater reclamation and reuse.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {494-495}, number = {}, pages = {9-17}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.06.090}, pmid = {25020098}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/*methods ; Wastewater/analysis/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Water Purification/*methods ; Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {To tackle current water insecurity concerns, wastewater reclamation and reuse have appeared as a promising candidate to conserve the valuable fresh water sources while increasing the efficiency of material utilization. Climate change, nevertheless, poses both opportunities and threats to the wastewater reclamation industry. Whereas it elevates the social perception on water-related issues and fosters an emerging water-reuse market, climate change simultaneously presents adverse impacts on the water reclamation scheme, either directly or indirectly. These effects were studied fragmentally in separate realms. Hence, this paper aims to link these studies for providing a thorough understanding about the consequences of the climate change on the wastewater reclamation and reuse. It initially summarizes contemporary treatment processes and their reuse purposes before carrying out a systematic analysis of available findings.}, }
@article {pmid25019159, year = {2014}, author = {Salewski, V and Siebenrock, KH and Hochachka, WM and Woog, F and Fiedler, W}, title = {Morphological change to birds over 120 years is not explained by thermal adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {e101927}, pmid = {25019159}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*physiology ; Animals ; Ankle/anatomy &amp; histology ; *Biological Evolution ; Birds/*anatomy &amp; histology/physiology ; Body Size/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Germany ; Linear Models ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Wings, Animal/anatomy &amp; histology ; }, abstract = {Changes in morphology have been postulated as one of the responses of animals to global warming, with increasing ambient temperatures leading to decreasing body size. However, the results of previous studies are inconsistent. Problems related to the analyses of trends in body size may be related to the short-term nature of data sets, to the selection of surrogates for body size, to the appropriate models for data analyses, and to the interpretation as morphology may change in response to ecological drivers other than climate and irrespective of size. Using generalized additive models, we analysed trends in three morphological traits of 4529 specimens of eleven bird species collected between 1889 and 2010 in southern Germany and adjacent areas. Changes and trends in morphology over time were not consistent when all species and traits were considered. Six of the eleven species displayed a significant association of tarsus length with time but the direction of the association varied. Wing length decreased in the majority of species but there were few significant trends in wing pointedness. Few of the traits were significantly associated with mean ambient temperatures. We argue that although there are significant changes in morphology over time there is no consistent trend for decreasing body size and therefore no support for the hypothesis of decreasing body size because of climate change. Non-consistent trends of change in surrogates for size within species indicate that fluctuations are influenced by factors other than temperature, and that not all surrogates may represent size appropriately. Future analyses should carefully select measures of body size and consider alternative hypotheses for change.}, }
@article {pmid25017634, year = {2015}, author = {Sušnik, J and Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, LS and Baumert, N and Kloos, J and Renaud, FG and La Jeunesse, I and Mabrouk, B and Savić, DA and Kapelan, Z and Ludwig, R and Fischer, G and Roson, R and Zografos, C}, title = {Interdisciplinary assessment of sea-level rise and climate change impacts on the lower Nile delta, Egypt.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {503-504}, number = {}, pages = {279-288}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.06.111}, pmid = {25017634}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Egypt ; Environmental Monitoring ; Seawater/*analysis ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {CLImate-induced changes on WAter and SECurity (CLIWASEC) was a cluster of three complementary EC-FP7 projects assessing climate-change impacts throughout the Mediterranean on: hydrological cycles (CLIMB - CLimate-Induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean Basins); water security (WASSERMed - Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean) and human security connected with possible hydro-climatic conflicts (CLICO - CLImate change hydro-COnflicts and human security). The Nile delta case study was common between the projects. CLIWASEC created an integrated forum for modelling and monitoring to understand potential impacts across sectors. This paper summarises key results from an integrated assessment of potential challenges to water-related security issues, focusing on expected sea-level rise impacts by the middle of the century. We use this common focus to illustrate the added value of project clustering. CLIWASEC pursued multidisciplinary research by adopting a single research objective: sea-level rise related water security threats, resulting in a more holistic view of problems and potential solutions. In fragmenting research, policy-makers can fail to understand how multiple issues can materialize from one driver. By combining efforts, an integrated assessment of water security threats in the lower Nile is formulated, offering policy-makers a clearer picture of inter-related issues to society and environment. The main issues identified by each project (land subsidence, saline intrusion - CLIMB; water supply overexploitation, land loss - WASSERMed; employment and housing security - CLICO), are in fact related. Water overexploitation is exacerbating land subsidence and saline intrusion, impacting on employment and placing additional pressure on remaining agricultural land and the underdeveloped housing market. All these have wider implications for regional development. This richer understanding could be critical in making better policy decisions when attempting to mitigate climate and social change impacts. The CLIWASEC clustering offers an encouraging path for the new European Commission Horizon 2020 programme to follow.}, }
@article {pmid25011530, year = {2015}, author = {Obeysekera, J and Barnes, J and Nungesser, M}, title = {Climate sensitivity runs and regional hydrologic modeling for predicting the response of the greater Florida Everglades ecosystem to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {749-762}, pmid = {25011530}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Florida ; Forecasting/methods ; *Hydrology ; Models, Theoretical ; *Water Resources ; Water Supply ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {It is important to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida and to determine the resilience and robustness of greater Everglades restoration plans under future climate change. The current climate models, at both global and regional scales, are not ready to deliver specific climatic datasets for water resources investigations involving future plans and therefore a scenario based approach was adopted for this first study in restoration planning. We focused on the general implications of potential changes in future temperature and associated changes in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and sea levels at the regional boundary. From these, we developed a set of six climate and sea level scenarios, used them to simulate the hydrologic response of the greater Everglades region including agricultural, urban, and natural areas, and compared the results to those from a base run of current conditions. The scenarios included a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, ±10 % change in precipitation, and a 0.46 m (1.5 feet) increase in sea level for the 50-year planning horizon. The results suggested that, depending on the rainfall and temperature scenario, there would be significant changes in water budgets, ecosystem performance, and in water supply demands met. The increased sea level scenarios also show that the ground water levels would increase significantly with associated implications for flood protection in the urbanized areas of southeastern Florida.}, }
@article {pmid25009066, year = {2014}, author = {Khaliq, I and Hof, C and Prinzinger, R and Böhning-Gaese, K and Pfenninger, M}, title = {Global variation in thermal tolerances and vulnerability of endotherms to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {281}, number = {1789}, pages = {20141097}, pmid = {25009066}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Mammals/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The relationships among species' physiological capacities and the geographical variation of ambient climate are of key importance to understanding the distribution of life on the Earth. Furthermore, predictions of how species will respond to climate change will profit from the explicit consideration of their physiological tolerances. The climatic variability hypothesis, which predicts that climatic tolerances are broader in more variable climates, provides an analytical framework for studying these relationships between physiology and biogeography. However, direct empirical support for the hypothesis is mostly lacking for endotherms, and few studies have tried to integrate physiological data into assessments of species' climatic vulnerability at the global scale. Here, we test the climatic variability hypothesis for endotherms, with a comprehensive dataset on thermal tolerances derived from physiological experiments, and use these data to assess the vulnerability of species to projected climate change. We find the expected relationship between thermal tolerance and ambient climatic variability in birds, but not in mammals-a contrast possibly resulting from different adaptation strategies to ambient climate via behaviour, morphology or physiology. We show that currently most of the species are experiencing ambient temperatures well within their tolerance limits and that in the future many species may be able to tolerate projected temperature increases across significant proportions of their distributions. However, our findings also underline the high vulnerability of tropical regions to changes in temperature and other threats of anthropogenic global changes. Our study demonstrates that a better understanding of the interplay among species' physiology and the geography of climate change will advance assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25005591, year = {2014}, author = {Keshavmurthy, S and Fontana, S and Mezaki, T and González, Ldel C and Chen, CA}, title = {Doors are closing on early development in corals facing climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {5633}, pmid = {25005591}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Environment ; Fertilization/physiology ; Hot Temperature ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Marine invertebrates are particularly vulnerable to climatic anomalies in early life history stages because of the time spent in the water column. Studies have focused on the effect of seawater temperature on fertilization, development, and larval stages in corals; however, none of them show comparative results along an environmental gradient. In this study, we show that temperatures in the range of 15-33 °C have strong effects on fertilization rates and embryonic stages of two coral species, Acropora muricata in the subtropical environment and Acropora hyacinthus in subtropical and temperate environments. Deformations after the first cleavage stages were observed at low (15 °C) and high (33 °C) temperatures. Development was delayed by 6-7 h in the slightly non-optimal temperature of 20 °C. We found significant differences in fertilization rates and responses of embryos from different latitudes, with temperate corals being more sensitive to extremely hot temperatures and vice versa. We hypothesize that the coral development is restricted to a narrow temperature range and deviation outside this window could inhibit a species' continuance and ecological success. Thus, it would have significant negative effects on adult populations and communities, playing a role in future of coral reef survival.}, }
@article {pmid25005416, year = {2014}, author = {Richardson, J and Grose, J and Jackson, B and Gill, JL and Sadeghian, HB and Hertel, J and Kelsey, J}, title = {Effect of climate change and resource scarcity on health care.}, journal = {Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987)}, volume = {28}, number = {45}, pages = {44-49}, doi = {10.7748/ns.28.45.44.e8415}, pmid = {25005416}, issn = {2047-9018}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; Delivery of Health Care/*economics ; Disaster Planning/methods ; Humans ; Natural Resources/*supply &amp; distribution ; Nurses/statistics &amp; numerical data ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Climate change and resource scarcity pose significant threats to healthcare delivery. Nurses should develop the skills to cope with these challenges in the future. Skills sessions using sustainability scenarios can help nursing students to understand the effect climate change and resource scarcity will have on health care. Involving design students in clinical skills sessions can encourage multidisciplinary working and help to find solutions to promote healthcare sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid25003550, year = {2014}, author = {Codjoe, SN and Nabie, VA}, title = {Climate change and cerebrospinal meningitis in the Ghanaian meningitis belt.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {6923-6939}, pmid = {25003550}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Focus Groups ; Ghana ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Meningitis, Meningococcal/*prevention &amp; control ; Middle Aged ; Perception ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Cerebrospinal meningitis (CSM) is one of the infectious diseases likely to be affected by climate change. Although there are a few studies on the climate change-CSM nexus, none has considered perceptions of community members. However, understanding public perception in relation to a phenomenon is very significant for the design of effective communication and mitigation strategies as well as coping and adaptation strategies. This paper uses focus group discussions (FGDs) to fill this knowledge lacuna. Results show that although a few elderly participants ascribed fatal causes (disobedience to gods, ancestors, and evil spirits) to CSM infections during FGDs, majority of participants rightly linked CSM infections to dry, very hot and dusty conditions experienced during the dry season. Finally, community members use a suite of adaptation options to curb future CSM epidemics.}, }
@article {pmid25003495, year = {2014}, author = {Hess, JJ and Eidson, M and Tlumak, JE and Raab, KK and Luber, G}, title = {An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {122}, number = {11}, pages = {1177-1186}, pmid = {25003495}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Decision Making ; Evidence-Based Practice/methods ; Humans ; *Public Health Practice ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders.<br><br>DISCUSSION: A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders.}, }
@article {pmid24999143, year = {2014}, author = {Rahman, MS and Mohamad, OB and Zarim, Zb}, title = {Climate change: a review of its health impact and perceived awareness by the young citizens.}, journal = {Global journal of health science}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {196-204}, pmid = {24999143}, issn = {1916-9736}, mesh = {Adult ; *Awareness ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Malaysia ; Male ; *Mental Health ; *Perception ; Sex Factors ; Students/*psychology ; Universities ; }, abstract = {In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University's students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences.}, }
@article {pmid24998342, year = {2014}, author = {Tavoni, A}, title = {Evolutionary escape from the climate dilemma: comment on "climate change governance, cooperation and self-organization" by Pacheco, Vasconcelos and Santos.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {587-588}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2014.06.021}, pmid = {24998342}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid24998148, year = {2014}, author = {}, title = {USDA funding studies on food safety, climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association}, volume = {244}, number = {12}, pages = {1361}, pmid = {24998148}, issn = {1943-569X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Financing, Government ; *Food Safety ; United States ; United States Department of Agriculture/*economics ; }, }
@article {pmid24994651, year = {2014}, author = {Sydeman, WJ and García-Reyes, M and Schoeman, DS and Rykaczewski, RR and Thompson, SA and Black, BA and Bograd, SJ}, title = {Climate change. Climate change and wind intensification in coastal upwelling ecosystems.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {345}, number = {6192}, pages = {77-80}, doi = {10.1126/science.1251635}, pmid = {24994651}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {California ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Wind ; }, abstract = {In 1990, Andrew Bakun proposed that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations would force intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in eastern boundary current systems that contribute substantial services to society. Because there is considerable disagreement about whether contemporary wind trends support Bakun's hypothesis, we performed a meta-analysis of the literature on upwelling-favorable wind intensification. The preponderance of published analyses suggests that winds have intensified in the California, Benguela, and Humboldt upwelling systems and weakened in the Iberian system over time scales ranging up to 60 years; wind change is equivocal in the Canary system. Stronger intensification signals are observed at higher latitudes, consistent with the warming pattern associated with climate change. Overall, reported changes in coastal winds, although subtle and spatially variable, support Bakun's hypothesis of upwelling intensification in eastern boundary current systems.}, }
@article {pmid24993792, year = {2014}, author = {Hanson, KC and Peterson, DP}, title = {Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on Pacific salmon culture programs: an example at Winthrop National Fish Hatchery.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {54}, number = {3}, pages = {433-448}, pmid = {24993792}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Fisheries ; *Models, Theoretical ; Salmon/*growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Washington ; }, abstract = {Hatcheries have long been used in an attempt to mitigate for declines in wild stocks of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), though the conservation benefit of hatcheries is a topic of ongoing debate. Irrespective of conservation benefits, a fundamental question is whether hatcheries will be able to function as they have in the past given anticipated future climate conditions. To begin to answer this question, we developed a deterministic modeling framework to evaluate how climate change may affect hatcheries that rear Pacific salmon. The framework considers the physiological tolerances for each species, incorporates a temperature-driven growth model, and uses two metrics commonly monitored by hatchery managers to determine the impacts of changes in water temperature and availability on hatchery rearing conditions. As a case study, we applied the model to the US Fish and Wildlife Service's Winthrop National Fish Hatchery. We projected that hatchery environmental conditions remained within the general physiological tolerances for Chinook salmon in the 2040s (assuming A1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario), but that warmer water temperatures in summer accelerated juvenile salmon growth. Increased growth during summer coincided with periods when water availability should also be lower, thus increasing the likelihood of physiological stress in juvenile salmon. The identification of these climate sensitivities led to a consideration of potential mitigation strategies such as chilling water, altering rations, or modifying rearing cycles. The framework can be refined with new information, but in its present form, it provides a consistent, repeatable method to assess the vulnerability of hatcheries to predicted climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24988784, year = {2014}, author = {Lawrence, DJ and Stewart-Koster, B and Olden, JD and Ruesch, AS and Torgersen, CE and Lawler, JJ and Butcher, DP and Crown, JK}, title = {The interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and a nonnative predator on stream-rearing salmon.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {895-912}, doi = {10.1890/13-0753.1}, pmid = {24988784}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Bass/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Introduced Species ; Models, Biological ; Oregon ; *Predatory Behavior ; *Rivers ; Salmon/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Predicting how climate change is likely to interact with myriad other stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use-related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory, nonnative smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams, and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and nonnative species on stream-rearing salmon and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin. We compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, end-of-century warming may cause near total loss of chinook salmon-rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (two- to fourfold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of chinook salmon from the more altered stream and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon-rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater predation risk by nonnative species.}, }
@article {pmid24984055, year = {2014}, author = {Lundhede, TH and Jacobsen, JB and Hanley, N and Fjeldså, J and Rahbek, C and Strange, N and Thorsen, BJ}, title = {Public support for conserving bird species runs counter to climate change impacts on their distributions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {e101281}, pmid = {24984055}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Birds ; Climate Change/*economics ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Denmark ; }, abstract = {There is increasing evidence that global climate change will alter the spatiotemporal occurrences and abundances of many species at continental scales. This will have implications for efficient conservation of biodiversity. We investigate if the general public in Denmark are willing to pay for the preservation of birds potentially immigrating and establishing breeding populations due to climate change to the same extent that they are for native species populations currently breeding in Denmark, but potentially emigrating due to climate change. We find that Danish citizens are willing to pay much more for the conservation of birds currently native to Denmark, than for bird species moving into the country--even when they are informed about the potential range shifts associated with climate change. The only exception is when immigrating species populations are under pressure at European level. Furthermore, people believing climate change to be man-made and people more knowledgeable about birds tended to have higher WTP for conservation of native species, relative to other people, whereas their preferences for conserving immigrant species generally resembled those of other people. Conservation investments rely heavily on public funding and hence on public support. Our results suggest that cross-country coordination of conservation efforts under climate change will be challenging in terms of achieving an appropriate balance between cost-effectiveness in adaptation and the concerns of a general public who seem mostly worried about protecting currently-native species.}, }
@article {pmid24983223, year = {2014}, author = {Rice, MB and Thurston, GD and Balmes, JR and Pinkerton, KE}, title = {Reply: the largest problem with climate change policy is not a future event.}, journal = {American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine}, volume = {190}, number = {1}, pages = {117}, doi = {10.1164/rccm.201404-0780LE}, pmid = {24983223}, issn = {1535-4970}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/*etiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid24983222, year = {2014}, author = {Smith, PG}, title = {The largest problem with climate change policy is not a future event.}, journal = {American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine}, volume = {190}, number = {1}, pages = {116}, doi = {10.1164/rccm.201403-0570LE}, pmid = {24983222}, issn = {1535-4970}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/*etiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid24979787, year = {2014}, author = {Fehren-Schmitz, L and Haak, W and Mächtle, B and Masch, F and Llamas, B and Cagigao, ET and Sossna, V and Schittek, K and Isla Cuadrado, J and Eitel, B and Reindel, M}, title = {Climate change underlies global demographic, genetic, and cultural transitions in pre-Columbian southern Peru.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {26}, pages = {9443-9448}, pmid = {24979787}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Archaeology/methods ; Base Sequence ; Bayes Theorem ; Climate Change/*history ; Computer Simulation ; Cultural Evolution/*history ; DNA, Mitochondrial/isolation &amp; purification ; Droughts/*history ; Haplotypes/genetics ; History, 15th Century ; History, Ancient ; History, Medieval ; Human Migration/*history ; Humans ; Models, Genetic ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Peru ; Population Dynamics/*history ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {Several archaeological studies in the Central Andes have pointed at the temporal coincidence of climatic fluctuations (both long- and short-term) and episodes of cultural transition and changes of socioeconomic structures throughout the pre-Columbian period. Although most scholars explain the connection between environmental and cultural changes by the impact of climatic alterations on the capacities of the ecosystems inhabited by pre-Columbian cultures, direct evidence for assumed demographic consequences is missing so far. In this study, we address directly the impact of climatic changes on the spatial population dynamics of the Central Andes. We use a large dataset of pre-Columbian mitochondrial DNA sequences from the northern Rio Grande de Nasca drainage (RGND) in southern Peru, dating from ∼840 BC to 1450 AD. Alternative demographic scenarios are tested using Bayesian serial coalescent simulations in an approximate Bayesian computational framework. Our results indicate migrations from the lower coastal valleys of southern Peru into the Andean highlands coincident with increasing climate variability at the end of the Nasca culture at ∼640 AD. We also find support for a back-migration from the highlands to the coast coincident with droughts in the southeastern Andean highlands and improvement of climatic conditions on the coast after the decline of the Wari and Tiwanaku empires (∼1200 AD), leading to a genetic homogenization in the RGND and probably southern Peru as a whole.}, }
@article {pmid24973939, year = {2014}, author = {Dannenberg, A}, title = {Dangerous climate change and collective action: comment on "climate change governance, cooperation and self-organization" by Jorge M. Pacheco, Vítor V. Vasconcelos, and Francisco C. Santos.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {591-592}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2014.06.012}, pmid = {24973939}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid24971645, year = {2014}, author = {Gautam, BR and Li, F and Ru, G}, title = {Climate change risk for hydropower schemes in Himalayan region.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {14}, pages = {7702-7703}, doi = {10.1021/es502719t}, pmid = {24971645}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Electricity ; Geography ; *Power Plants/economics ; Rain ; Rivers ; Snow ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid24969617, year = {2014}, author = {Budy, P and Luecke, C}, title = {Understanding how lake populations of arctic char are structured and function with special consideration of the potential effects of climate change: a multi-faceted approach.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {176}, number = {1}, pages = {81-94}, pmid = {24969617}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Alaska ; Animals ; Body Size/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Energy Metabolism/*physiology ; *Lakes ; Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Survival Analysis ; Temperature ; Trout/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Size dimorphism in fish populations, both its causes and consequences, has been an area of considerable focus; however, uncertainty remains whether size dimorphism is dynamic or stabilizing and about the role of exogenous factors. Here, we explored patterns among empirical vital rates, population structure, abundance and trend, and predicted the effects of climate change on populations of arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in two lakes. Both populations cycle dramatically between dominance by small (≤300 mm) and large (>300 mm) char. Apparent survival (Φ) and specific growth rates (SGR) were relatively high (40-96%; SGR range 0.03-1.5%) and comparable to those of conspecifics at lower latitudes. Climate change scenarios mimicked observed patterns of warming and resulted in temperatures closer to optimal for char growth (15.15 °C) and a longer growing season. An increase in consumption rates (28-34%) under climate change scenarios led to much greater growth rates (23-34%). Higher growth rates predicted under climate change resulted in an even greater predicted amplitude of cycles in population structure as well as an increase in reproductive output (Ro) and decrease in generation time (Go). Collectively, these results indicate arctic char populations (not just individuals) are extremely sensitive to small changes in the number of ice-free days. We hypothesize years with a longer growing season, predicted to occur more often under climate change, produce elevated growth rates of small char and act in a manner similar to a "resource pulse," allowing a sub-set of small char to "break through," thus setting the cycle in population structure.}, }
@article {pmid24960916, year = {2014}, author = {Korr, M}, title = {Sen. Whitehouse sounds alarm on climate change, health.}, journal = {Rhode Island medical journal (2013)}, volume = {97}, number = {5}, pages = {60-61}, pmid = {24960916}, issn = {2327-2228}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Government ; Humans ; Rhode Island ; }, }
@article {pmid24957384, year = {2015}, author = {Dieleman, CM and Branfireun, BA and McLaughlin, JW and Lindo, Z}, title = {Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: implications for ecosystem function and stability.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {388-395}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12643}, pmid = {24957384}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; *Biodiversity ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Groundwater ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Models, Biological ; Species Specificity ; Sphagnopsida/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO2 had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid-dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens.}, }
@article {pmid24956800, year = {2014}, author = {Idowu, IA and Alkhaddar, RM and Atherton, W}, title = {Possible source term of high concentrations of mecoprop-p in leachate and water quality: impact of climate change, public use and disposal.}, journal = {Environmental technology}, volume = {35}, number = {13-16}, pages = {2055-2067}, doi = {10.1080/09593330.2014.891658}, pmid = {24956800}, issn = {0959-3330}, mesh = {2-Methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic Acid/*analogs &amp; derivatives/analysis ; Climate Change ; Hazardous Waste ; Seasons ; Waste Management ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; Water Quality ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Mecoprop-p herbicide is often found in wells and water abstractions in many areas around Europe, the UK inclusive. There is a growing environmental and public health concern about mecoprop-p herbicide pollution in ground and surface water in England. Reviews suggest that extensive work has been carried out on the contribution of mecoprop-p herbicides from agricultural use whilst more work needs to be carried out on the contribution of mecoprop-p herbicide from non-agricultural use. The study covers two landfill sites in Weaver/Gowy Catchment. Mecoprop-p herbicide concentrations in the leachate quality range between 0.06 and 290 microg l1 in cells. High concentration ofmecoprop-p herbicide in the leachate quality suggests that there is a possible source term in the waste stream. This paper addresses the gap by exploring possible source terms of mecoprop-p herbicide contamination on landfill sites and evaluates the impact of public purchase, use and disposal alongside climate change on seasonal variations in mecoprop-p concentrations. Mecoprop-p herbicide was found to exceed the EU drinking water quality standards at the unsaturated zone/aquifer with observed average concentrations ranging between 0.005 and 7.96 microg l1. A route map for mecoprop-p herbicide source term contamination is essential for mitigation and pollution management with emphasis on both consumer and producer responsibility towards use of mecoprop-p product. In addition, improvement in data collection on mecoprop-p concentrations and detailed seasonal herbicide sales for non-agricultural purposes are needed to inform the analysis and decision process.}, }
@article {pmid24955760, year = {2014}, author = {Orkin, VL and Martynova, LE and Kurylo, MJ}, title = {Photochemical properties of trans-1-chloro-3,3,3-trifluoropropene (trans-CHCl═CHCF3): OH reaction rate constant, UV and IR absorption spectra, global warming potential, and ozone depletion potential.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {118}, number = {28}, pages = {5263-5271}, doi = {10.1021/jp5018949}, pmid = {24955760}, issn = {1520-5215}, abstract = {Measurements of the rate constant for the gas-phase reactions of OH radicals with trans-1-chloro-3,3,3-trifluoropropene (trans-CHCl═CHCF3) were performed using a flash photolysis resonance-fluorescence technique over the temperature range 220-370 K. The reaction rate constant exhibits a noticeable curvature of the temperature dependence in the Arrhenius plot, which can be represented by the following expression: kt-CFP (220-370 K) = 1.025 × 10(-13) × (T/298)(2.29) exp(+384/T) cm(3)molecule(-1) s(-1). The room-temperature rate constant was determined to be kt-CFP (298 K) = (3.29 ± 0.10) × 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), where the uncertainty includes both two standard errors (statistical) and the estimated systematic error. For atmospheric modeling purposes, the rate constant below room temperature can be represented by the following expression: kt-CFP (220-298 K) = (7.20 ± 0.46) × 10(-13) exp[-(237 ± 16)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). There was no difference observed between the rate constants determined at 4 kPa (30 Torr) and 40 kPa (300 Torr) at both 298 and 370 K. The UV and IR absorption cross sections of this compound were measured at room temperature. The atmospheric lifetime, global warming potential, and ozone depletion potential of trans-CHCl═CHCF3 were estimated.}, }
@article {pmid24947942, year = {2014}, author = {Miller, LP and Matassa, CM and Trussell, GC}, title = {Climate change enhances the negative effects of predation risk on an intermediate consumer.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {12}, pages = {3834-3844}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12639}, pmid = {24947942}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; Bivalvia/physiology ; Brachyura/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; *Models, Biological ; Predatory Behavior/*physiology ; Snails/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Predators are a major source of stress in natural systems because their prey must balance the benefits of feeding with the risk of being eaten. Although this 'fear' of being eaten often drives the organization and dynamics of many natural systems, we know little about how such risk effects will be altered by climate change. Here, we examined the interactive consequences of predator avoidance and projected climate warming in a three-level rocky intertidal food chain. We found that both predation risk and increased air and sea temperatures suppressed the foraging of prey in the middle trophic level, suggesting that warming may further enhance the top-down control of predators on communities. Prey growth efficiency, which measures the efficiency of energy transfer between trophic levels, became negative when prey were subjected to predation risk and warming. Thus, the combined effects of these stressors may represent an important tipping point for individual fitness and the efficiency of energy transfer in natural food chains. In contrast, we detected no adverse effects of warming on the top predator and the basal resources. Hence, the consequences of projected warming may be particularly challenging for intermediate consumers residing in food chains where risk dominates predator-prey interactions.}, }
@article {pmid24947804, year = {2014}, author = {Burton, AJ and Bambrick, HJ and Friel, S}, title = {Is enough attention given to climate change in health service planning? An Australian perspective.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {23903}, pmid = {24947804}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Health Planning/methods ; Health Services Administration ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Within an Australian context, the medium to long-term health impacts of climate change are likely to be wide, varied and amplify many existing disorders and health inequities. How the health system responds to these challenges will be best considered in the context of existing health facilities and services. This paper provides a snapshot of the understanding that Australian health planners have of the potential health impacts of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: The first author interviewed (n=16) health service planners from five Australian states and territories using an interpretivist paradigm. All interviews were digitally recorded, key components transcribed and thematically analysed.<br><br>RESULTS: Results indicate that the majority of participants were aware of climate change but not of its potential health impacts. Despite this, most planners were of the opinion that they would need to plan for the health impacts of climate change on the community.<br><br>CONCLUSION: With the best available evidence pointing towards there being significant health impacts as a result of climate change, now is the time to undertake proactive service planning that address market failures within the health system. If considered planning is not undertaken then Australian health system can only deal with climate change in an expensive ad hoc, crisis management manner. Without meeting the challenges of climate change to the health system head on, Australia will remain unprepared for the health impacts of climate change with negative consequences for the health of the Australian population.}, }
@article {pmid24946989, year = {2014}, author = {Hulme, PE}, title = {Alien plants confront expectations of climate change impacts.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {547-549}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2014.05.003}, pmid = {24946989}, issn = {1878-4372}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Introduced Species ; Plant Dispersal/*physiology ; Plant Physiological Phenomena/*physiology ; Plants/*classification ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The success of alien plants in novel environments questions basic assumptions about the fate of native species under climate change. Aliens generally spread faster than the velocity of climate change, display considerable phenotypic plasticity as well as adaptation to new selection pressures, and their ranges are often shaped by biotic rather than climatic factors. Given that many native species also exhibit these attributes, their risk of extinction as a result of climate change might be overestimated.}, }
@article {pmid24942916, year = {2014}, author = {Glibert, PM and Icarus Allen, J and Artioli, Y and Beusen, A and Bouwman, L and Harle, J and Holmes, R and Holt, J}, title = {Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {12}, pages = {3845-3858}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12662}, pmid = {24942916}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Dinoflagellida/*growth &amp; development ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting/*methods ; Geography ; Harmful Algal Bloom/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Oceans and Seas ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid24938808, year = {2014}, author = {Sajjad, F and Noreen, U and Zaman, K}, title = {Climate change and air pollution jointly creating nightmare for tourism industry.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {21}, number = {21}, pages = {12403-12418}, pmid = {24938808}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Africa ; Air Pollution/analysis/*economics ; Asia ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate Change/*economics ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; Geography ; Methane/analysis ; *Models, Economic ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Travel/*economics ; }, abstract = {The objective of the study is to examine the long-run and causal relationship between climate change (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions, hydrofluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride), air pollution (i.e., methane emissions, nitrous oxide emissions, and carbon dioxide emissions), and tourism development indicators (i.e., international tourism receipts, international tourism expenditures, natural resource depletion, and net forest depletion) in the World's largest regions. The aggregate data is used for robust analysis in the South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia and the Pacific regions, over a period of 1975-2012. The results show that climatic factors and air pollution have a negative impact on tourism indicators in the form of deforestation and natural resource depletion. The impact is evident, as we have seen the systematic eroding of tourism industry, due to severe changes in climate and increasing strain of air pollution. There are several channels of cause-effect relationship between the climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World's region. The study confirms the unidirectional, bidirectional, and causality independent relationship between climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World. It is conclusive that tourism industry is facing all time bigger challenges of reduce investment, less resources, and minor importance from the government agencies because of the two broad challenges, i.e., climate change and air pollution, putting them in a dismal state.}, }
@article {pmid24937641, year = {2014}, author = {Niemuth, ND and Fleming, KK and Reynolds, RE}, title = {Waterfowl conservation in the US Prairie Pothole Region: confronting the complexities of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e100034}, pmid = {24937641}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anseriformes ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Grassland ; Ponds ; United States ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the most important waterfowl production area in North America. However, waterfowl populations there are predicted to decline because of climate-related drying of wetlands. Consequently, changes in the geographic focus of PPR waterfowl conservation have been recommended, which could have long-lasting and costly impacts. We used a 40-year dataset of pond counts collected in the PPR to test hypotheses about climate-related drying. We assessed May (1974-2013) and July (1974-2003) pond numbers in 20 waterfowl survey strata to determine if trends in pond numbers were consistent with predictions of drying. We also assessed trends in precipitation and temperature for the 20 strata and developed models describing May pond numbers from 1974 through 2010 as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and location. None of the 20 strata showed significant declines in May pond numbers, although seven strata showed increases over time. July pond numbers declined significantly in one stratum, and increased in seven strata. An index to hydroperiod showed significant increasing trends in three strata, and no strata had decreasing trends. Precipitation increased significantly in two strata and decreased in two from 1974 to 2010; no strata showed significant changes in temperature. The best linear model described pond numbers within all strata as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and the latitude and longitude of the stratum, and explained 62% of annual variation in pond numbers. We hypothesize that direct effects of climate change on prairie pothole wetlands and waterfowl may be overshadowed by indirect effects such as intensified land use and increased pressure to drain wetlands. We recommend that an adaptive, data-driven approach be used to resolve uncertainties regarding direct and indirect effects of climate change on prairie wetlands and waterfowl, and guide future conservation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid24937528, year = {2014}, author = {Wolf, T and Martinez, GS and Cheong, HK and Williams, E and Menne, B}, title = {Protecting health from climate change in the WHO European Region.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {6265-6280}, doi = {10.3390/ijerph110606265}, pmid = {24937528}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Europe ; Humans ; *Planning Techniques ; *Public Health ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {"How far are we in implementing climate change and health action in the WHO European Region?" This was the question addressed to representatives of WHO European Member States of the working group on health in climate change (HIC). Twenty-two Member States provided answers to a comprehensive questionnaire that focused around eight thematic areas (Governance; Vulnerability, impact and adaptation (health) assessments; Adaptation strategies and action plans; Climate change mitigation; Strengthening health systems; Raising awareness and building capacity; Greening health services; and Sharing best practices). Strong areas of development are climate change vulnerability and impact assessments, as well as strengthening health systems and awareness raising. Areas where implementation would benefit from further action are the development of National Health Adaptation Plans, greening health systems, sharing best practice and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in other sectors. At the Parma Conference in 2010, the European Ministerial Commitment to Act on climate change and health and the European Regional Framework for Action to protect health from climate change were endorsed by fifty three European Member States. The results of this questionnaire are the most comprehensive assessment so far of the progress made by WHO European Member States to protecting public health from climate change since the agreements in Parma and the World Health Assembly Resolution in 2008.}, }
@article {pmid24934878, year = {2014}, author = {Rapacciuolo, G and Maher, SP and Schneider, AC and Hammond, TT and Jabis, MD and Walsh, RE and Iknayan, KJ and Walden, GK and Oldfather, MF and Ackerly, DD and Beissinger, SR}, title = {Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {9}, pages = {2841-2855}, pmid = {24934878}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization/physiology ; *Altitude ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Butterflies/*physiology ; California ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Demography ; Forecasting/methods ; Mammals/*physiology ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature - collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate - particularly precipitation and water availability - is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study.}, }
@article {pmid24933438, year = {2014}, author = {Kotta, J and Möller, T and Orav-Kotta, H and Pärnoja, M}, title = {Realized niche width of a brackish water submerged aquatic vegetation under current environmental conditions and projected influences of climate change.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {102}, number = {}, pages = {88-101}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2014.05.002}, pmid = {24933438}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Aquatic Organisms ; Baltic States ; Biota ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Eutrophication ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Regression Analysis ; Salinity ; Seawater/chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Little is known about how organisms might respond to multiple climate stressors and this lack of knowledge limits our ability to manage coastal ecosystems under contemporary climate change. Ecological models provide managers and decision makers with greater certainty that the systems affected by their decisions are accurately represented. In this study Boosted Regression Trees modelling was used to relate the cover of submerged aquatic vegetation to the abiotic environment in the brackish Baltic Sea. The analyses showed that the majority of the studied submerged aquatic species are most sensitive to changes in water temperature, current velocity and winter ice scour. Surprisingly, water salinity, turbidity and eutrophication have little impact on the distributional pattern of the studied biota. Both small and large scale environmental variability contributes to the variability of submerged aquatic vegetation. When modelling species distribution under the projected influences of climate change, all of the studied submerged aquatic species appear to be very resilient to a broad range of environmental perturbation and biomass gains are expected when seawater temperature increases. This is mainly because vegetation develops faster in spring and has a longer growing season under the projected climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid24932467, year = {2014}, author = {Clark, JS and Bell, DM and Kwit, MC and Zhu, K}, title = {Competition-interaction landscapes for the joint response of forests to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {1979-1991}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12425}, pmid = {24932467}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; Models, Biological ; North Carolina ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The recent global increase in forest mortality episodes could not have been predicted from current vegetation models that are calibrated to regional climate data. Physiological studies show that mortality results from interactions between climate and competition at the individual scale. Models of forest response to climate do not include interactions because they are hard to estimate and require long-term observations on individual trees obtained at frequent (annual) intervals. Interactions involve multiple tree responses that can only be quantified if these responses are estimated as a joint distribution. A new approach provides estimates of climate–competition interactions in two critical ways, (i) among individuals, as a joint distribution of responses to combinations of inputs, such as resources and climate, and (ii) within individuals, due to allocation requirements that control outputs, such as demographic rates. Application to 20 years of data from climate and competition gradients shows that interactions control forest responses, and their omission from models leads to inaccurate predictions. Species most vulnerable to increasing aridity are not those that show the largest growth response to precipitation, but rather depend on interactions with the local resource environment. This first assessment of regional species vulnerability that is based on the scale at which climate operates, individual trees competing for carbon and water, supports predictions of potential savannification in the southeastern US.}, }
@article {pmid24929498, year = {2014}, author = {Sommer, R and Bossio, D}, title = {Dynamics and climate change mitigation potential of soil organic carbon sequestration.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {144}, number = {}, pages = {83-87}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.05.017}, pmid = {24929498}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Carbon/*analysis ; Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {When assessing soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and its climate change (CC) mitigation potential at global scale, the dynamic nature of soil carbon storage and interventions to foster it should be taken into account. Firstly, adoption of SOC-sequestration measures will take time, and reasonably such schemes could only be implemented gradually at large-scale. Secondly, if soils are managed as carbon sinks, then SOC will increase only over a limited time, up to the point when a new SOC equilibrium is reached. This paper combines these two processes and predicts potential SOC sequestration dynamics in agricultural land at global scale and the corresponding CC mitigation potential. Assuming that global governments would agree on a worldwide effort to gradually change land use practices towards turning agricultural soils into carbon sinks starting 2014, the projected 87-year (2014-2100) global SOC sequestration potential of agricultural land ranged between 31 and 64 Gt. This is equal to 1.9-3.9% of the SRES-A2 projected 87-year anthropogenic emissions. SOC sequestration would peak 2032-33, at that time reaching 4.3-8.9% of the projected annual SRES-A2 emission. About 30 years later the sequestration rate would have reduced by half. Thus, SOC sequestration is not a C wedge that could contribute increasingly to mitigating CC. Rather, the mitigation potential is limited, contributing very little to solving the climate problem of the coming decades. However, we deliberately did not elaborate on the importance of maintaining or increasing SOC for sustaining soil health, agro-ecosystem functioning and productivity; an issue of global significance that deserves proper consideration irrespectively of any potential additional sequestration of SOC.}, }
@article {pmid24927165, year = {2014}, author = {Steen, V and Skagen, SK and Noon, BR}, title = {Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e96747}, pmid = {24927165}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*classification/*physiology ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; United States ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.}, }
@article {pmid24923225, year = {2014}, author = {Mall, RK and Bhatt, D and Sonkar, G and Banerjee, T}, title = {Simulation modeling and climate change: issues and challenges.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {21}, number = {19}, pages = {11605-11608}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-014-3096-0}, pmid = {24923225}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid24921598, year = {2014}, author = {Harsch, MA and Zhou, Y and HilleRisLambers, J and Kot, M}, title = {Keeping pace with climate change: stage-structured moving-habitat models.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {184}, number = {1}, pages = {25-37}, doi = {10.1086/676590}, pmid = {24921598}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Dipsacaceae ; *Ecosystem ; Fertility ; Models, Biological ; Pinus/physiology ; Plant Dispersal ; Population Dynamics ; Primula/physiology ; }, abstract = {Life cycles can limit the abilities of species to track changing climatic conditions. We combined age or stage structure and a moving-habitat model to explore the effects of life history on the persistence of populations in the presence of climate change. We studied four dissimilar plant species in moving patches and found that (1) population growth rates, (2) elasticities with respect to the survival (stasis and shrinkage) components of the projection matrix, and (3) the evenness of the elasticities with respect to the components of the projection matrix all decreased as we increased the translational speeds of the patches. In addition, the value of long-distance dispersal increased with patch speed for three of the four species. Our analyses confirm that rapid growth, high fecundity, and long-distance dispersal can benefit species in moving patches. Thus, species with long generation times and limited dispersal ability are especially vulnerable to habitat movement. Stage-structured moving-habitat models can easily incorporate spatial complexity and can help us predict the effects of shifting climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid24919520, year = {2014}, author = {Taylor, A and Bruine de Bruin, W and Dessai, S}, title = {Climate change beliefs and perceptions of weather-related changes in the United Kingdom.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {34}, number = {11}, pages = {1995-2004}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12234}, pmid = {24919520}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {Public perception research in different countries has suggested that real and perceived periods of high temperature strengthen people's climate change beliefs. Such findings raise questions about the climate change beliefs of people in regions with moderate climates. Relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be associated with perceived changes in other weather-related events, such as precipitation or flooding. We examine the relationship between perceived changes in weather-related events and climate change beliefs among U.K. residents at a time of below-average winter temperatures and recent flooding. National survey data (n = 1,848) revealed that heat waves and hot summers were perceived to have become less common during respondents' lifetimes, while flooding, periods of heavy rainfall, coastal erosions, and mild winters were perceived to have increased in frequency and cold winters were perceived to be unchanged. Although perceived changes in hot-weather-related events were positively associated with climate change beliefs, perceived changes in wet-weather-related events were found to be an even stronger predictor. Self-reported experience of "flooding in own area" and "heat-wave discomfort" also significantly contributed to climate change beliefs. These findings highlight the importance of salient weather-related events and experiences in the formation of beliefs about climate change. We link our findings to research in judgment and decision making, and propose that those wishing to engage with the public on the issue of climate change should not limit their focus to heat.}, }
@article {pmid24918203, year = {2014}, author = {Clark, LV and Brummer, JE and Głowacka, K and Hall, MC and Heo, K and Peng, J and Yamada, T and Yoo, JH and Yu, CY and Zhao, H and Long, SP and Sacks, EJ}, title = {A footprint of past climate change on the diversity and population structure of Miscanthus sinensis.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {114}, number = {1}, pages = {97-107}, pmid = {24918203}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Asia ; Base Sequence ; Breeding ; Climate Change ; Energy Metabolism ; *Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Genotype ; Geography ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Phylogeny ; Plastids/genetics ; Poaceae/*genetics/physiology ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Miscanthus is a perennial C4 grass that is a leading potential feedstock crop for the emerging bioenergy industry in North America, Europe and China. However, only a single, sterile genotype of M. × giganteus (M×g), a nothospecies derived from diploid M. sinensis (Msi) and tetraploid M. sacchariflorus (Msa), is currently available to farmers for biomass production. To facilitate breeding of Miscanthus, this study characterized genetic diversity and population structure of Msi in its native range of East Asia.<br><br>METHODS: A total of 767 accessions were studied, including 617 Msi from most of its native range in China, Japan and South Korea, and 77 ornamental cultivars and 43 naturalized individuals from the USA. Accessions were evaluated with 21 207 restriction site-associated DNA sequencing single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, 424 GoldenGate SNPs and ten plastid microsatellite markers.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Six genetic clusters of Msi from geographically distinct regions in Asia were identified. Genetic data indicated that (1) south-eastern China was the origin of Msi populations found in temperate eastern Asia, which is consistent with this area probably having been a refugium during the last glacial maximum (LGM); (2) Msi migrated directly from south-eastern China to Japan before migrating to the same latitudes in China and Korea, which is consistent with the known sequence of warming post-LGM; (3) ornamental Msi cultivars were derived from the southern Japan population, and US naturalized populations were derived from a sub-set of the ornamental cultivars; and (4) many ornamental cultivars previously described as Msi have hybrid ancestry from Msa and Msi, whereas US naturalized populations of Msi do not.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Population structure of Msi was driven by patterns of warming since the LGM, and secondarily by geographical barriers. This study will facilitate germplasm conservation, association analyses and identification of potential heterotic groups for the improvement of Miscanthus as a bioenergy crop.}, }
@article {pmid24917151, year = {2014}, author = {Zhong, B and Xu, YJ}, title = {Predicting climate change effects on surface soil organic carbon of Louisiana, USA.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {186}, number = {10}, pages = {6169-6192}, pmid = {24917151}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Forests ; Louisiana ; Models, Theoretical ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {This study aimed to assess the degree of potential temperature and precipitation change as predicted by the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) climate model for Louisiana, and to investigate the effects of potential climate change on surface soil organic carbon (SOC) across Louisiana using the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) and GIS techniques at the watershed scale. Climate data sets at a grid cell of 0.5° × 0.5° for the entire state of Louisiana were collected from the HadCM3 model output for three climate change scenarios: B2, A2, and A1F1, that represent low, higher, and even higher greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Geo-referenced datasets including USDA-NRCS Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO), USGS Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), and the Louisiana watershed boundary data were gathered for SOC calculation at the watershed scale. A soil carbon turnover model, RothC, was used to simulate monthly changes in SOC from 2001 to 2100 under the projected temperature and precipitation changes. The simulated SOC changes in 253 watersheds from three time periods, 2001-2010, 2041-2050, and 2091-2100, were tested for the influence of the land covers and emissions scenarios using SAS PROC GLIMMIX and PDMIX800 macro to separate Tukey-Kramer (p < 0.01) adjusted means into letter comparisons. The study found that for most of the next 100 years in Louisiana, monthly mean temperature under all three emissions projections will increase; and monthly precipitation will, however, decrease. Under three emission scenarios, A1FI, A2, and B2, the mean SOC in the upper 30-cm depth of Louisiana forest soils will decrease from 33.0 t/ha in 2001 to 26.9, 28.4, and 29.2 t/ha in 2100, respectively; the mean SOC of Louisiana cropland soils will decrease from 44.4 t/ha in 2001 to 36.3, 38.4, and 39.6 t/ha in 2100, respectively; the mean SOC of Louisiana grassland soils will change from 30.7 t/ha in 2001 to 25.4, 26.6, and 27.0 t/ha in 2100, respectively. Annual SOC changes will be significantly different among the land cover classes including evergreen forest, mixed forest, deciduous forest, small grains, row crops, and pasture/hay (p < 0.0001), emissions scenarios (p < 0.0001), and their interactions (p < 0.0001).}, }
@article {pmid24916631, year = {2014}, author = {Nigatu, AS and Asamoah, BO and Kloos, H}, title = {Knowledge and perceptions about the health impact of climate change among health sciences students in Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {587}, pmid = {24916631}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Ethiopia ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Public Health ; Students ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Universities ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change affects human health in various ways. Health planners and policy makers are increasingly addressing potential health impacts of climate change. Ethiopia is vulnerable to these impacts. Assessing students' knowledge, understanding and perception about the health impact of climate change may promote educational endeavors to increase awareness of health impacts linked to climate change and to facilitate interventions.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional study using a questionnaire was carried out among the health science students at Haramaya University. Quantitative methods were used to analyze the results.<br><br>RESULT: Over three quarters of the students were aware of health consequences of climate change, with slightly higher rates in females than males and a range from 60.7% (pharmacy students) to 100% (environmental health and post-graduate public health students). Electronic mass media was reportedly the major source of information but almost all (87.7%) students stated that their knowledge was insufficient to fully understand the public health impacts of climate change. Students who knew about climate change were more likely to perceive it as a serious health threat than those who were unaware of these impacts [OR: 17.8, 95% CI: 8.8-32.1] and also considered their departments to be concerned about climate change (OR: 7.3, 95% CI: 2.8-18.8), a perception that was also significantly more common among students who obtained their information from the electronic mass media and schools (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.05). Using electronic mass media was also significantly associated with knowledge about the health impacts of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Health sciences students at Haramaya University may benefit from a more comprehensive curriculum on climate change and its impacts on health.}, }
@article {pmid24916195, year = {2015}, author = {Sakellari, M}, title = {Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {24}, number = {7}, pages = {827-841}, doi = {10.1177/0963662514537028}, pmid = {24916195}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Information Dissemination/*methods ; *Motion Pictures ; *Science ; }, abstract = {Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions.}, }
@article {pmid24913222, year = {2014}, author = {Molyneux, M}, title = {Global warming and altitude malaria.}, journal = {Tropical doctor}, volume = {44}, number = {3}, pages = {125-127}, doi = {10.1177/0036933014532043}, pmid = {24913222}, issn = {1758-1133}, }
@article {pmid24911772, year = {2014}, author = {Goglio, P and Grant, BB and Smith, WN and Desjardins, RL and Worth, DE and Zentner, R and Malhi, SS}, title = {Impact of management strategies on the global warming potential at the cropping system level.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {490}, number = {}, pages = {921-933}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.05.070}, pmid = {24911772}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Air Pollution/analysis/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Fertilizers/analysis/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {Estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems is important in order to assess the impact of agriculture on climate change. In this study experimental data supplemented with results from a biophysical model (DNDC) were combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the impact of management strategies on global warming potential of long-term cropping systems at two locations (Breton and Ellerslie) in Alberta, Canada. The aim was to estimate the difference in global warming potential (GWP) of cropping systems due to N fertilizer reduction and residue removal. Reducing the nitrogen fertilizer rate from 75 to 50 kg N ha(-1) decreased on average the emissions of N2O by 39%, NO by 59% and ammonia volatilisation by 57%. No clear trend for soil CO2 emissions was determined among cropping systems. When evaluated on a per hectare basis, cropping systems with residue removal required 6% more energy and had a little change in GWP. Conversely, when evaluated on the basis of gigajoules of harvestable biomass, residue removal resulted in 28% less energy requirement and 33% lower GWP. Reducing nitrogen fertilizer rate resulted in 18% less GWP on average for both functional units at Breton and 39% less GWP at Ellerslie. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed on average 67% to the overall GWP per ha. This study demonstrated that small changes in N fertilizer have a minimal impact on the productivity of the cropping systems but can still have a substantial environmental impact.}, }
@article {pmid24910517, year = {2014}, author = {Bigg, GR and Wei, HL and Wilton, DJ and Zhao, Y and Billings, SA and Hanna, E and Kadirkamanathan, V}, title = {A century of variation in the dependence of Greenland iceberg calving on ice sheet surface mass balance and regional climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {470}, number = {2166}, pages = {20130662}, pmid = {24910517}, issn = {1364-5021}, abstract = {Iceberg calving is a major component of the total mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). A century-long record of Greenland icebergs comes from the International Ice Patrol's record of icebergs (I48N) passing latitude 48° N, off Newfoundland. I48N exhibits strong interannual variability, with a significant increase in amplitude over recent decades. In this study, we show, through a combination of nonlinear system identification and coupled ocean-iceberg modelling, that I48N's variability is predominantly caused by fluctuation in GrIS calving discharge rather than open ocean iceberg melting. We also demonstrate that the episodic variation in iceberg discharge is strongly linked to a nonlinear combination of recent changes in the surface mass balance (SMB) of the GrIS and regional atmospheric and oceanic climate variability, on the scale of the previous 1-3 years, with the dominant causal mechanism shifting between glaciological (SMB) and climatic (ocean temperature) over time. We suggest that this is a change in whether glacial run-off or under-ice melting is dominant, respectively. We also suggest that GrIS calving discharge is episodic on at least a regional scale and has recently been increasing significantly, largely as a result of west Greenland sources.}, }
@article {pmid24905243, year = {2014}, author = {Kendrovski, V and Spasenovska, M and Menne, B}, title = {The public health impacts of climate change in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {5975-5988}, pmid = {24905243}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Focus Groups ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Qualitative Research ; Republic of North Macedonia ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Projected climatic changes for the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia for the period 2025-2100 will be most intense in the warmest period of the year with more frequent and more intense heat-waves, droughts and flood events compared with the period 1961-1990. The country has examined their vulnerabilities to climate change and many public health impacts have been projected. A variety of qualitative and quantitative methodologies were used in the assessment: literature reviews, interviews, focus groups, time series and regression analysis, damage and adaptation cost estimation, and scenario-based assessment. Policies and interventions to minimize the risks and development of long-term adaptation strategies have been explored. The generation of a robust evidence base and the development of stakeholder engagement have been used to support the development of an adaptation strategy and to promote adaptive capacity by improving the resilience of public health systems to climate change. Climate change adaptation has been established as a priority within existing national policy instruments. The lessons learnt from the process are applicable to countries considering how best to improve adaptive capacity and resilience of health systems to climate variability and its associated impacts.}, }
@article {pmid24904132, year = {2014}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. A bold baby step on emissions.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {344}, number = {6188}, pages = {1070-1071}, doi = {10.1126/science.344.6188.1070}, pmid = {24904132}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*standards ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide/*standards ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; United States ; United States Environmental Protection Agency/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid24898370, year = {2014}, author = {Sandom, C and Faurby, S and Sandel, B and Svenning, JC}, title = {Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {281}, number = {1787}, pages = {}, pmid = {24898370}, issn = {1471-2954}, support = {310886/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; Fossils ; Geography ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Mammals/*physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Paleontology ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The late Quaternary megafauna extinction was a severe global-scale event. Two factors, climate change and modern humans, have received broad support as the primary drivers, but their absolute and relative importance remains controversial. To date, focus has been on the extinction chronology of individual or small groups of species, specific geographical regions or macroscale studies at very coarse geographical and taxonomic resolution, limiting the possibility of adequately testing the proposed hypotheses. We present, to our knowledge, the first global analysis of this extinction based on comprehensive country-level data on the geographical distribution of all large mammal species (more than or equal to 10 kg) that have gone globally or continentally extinct between the beginning of the Last Interglacial at 132,000 years BP and the late Holocene 1000 years BP, testing the relative roles played by glacial-interglacial climate change and humans. We show that the severity of extinction is strongly tied to hominin palaeobiogeography, with at most a weak, Eurasia-specific link to climate change. This first species-level macroscale analysis at relatively high geographical resolution provides strong support for modern humans as the primary driver of the worldwide megafauna losses during the late Quaternary.}, }
@article {pmid24898230, year = {2014}, author = {Soret, S and Mejia, A and Batech, M and Jaceldo-Siegl, K and Harwatt, H and Sabaté, J}, title = {Climate change mitigation and health effects of varied dietary patterns in real-life settings throughout North America.}, journal = {The American journal of clinical nutrition}, volume = {100 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {490S-5S}, doi = {10.3945/ajcn.113.071589}, pmid = {24898230}, issn = {1938-3207}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Climate ; *Diet ; *Diet, Vegetarian ; *Feeding Behavior ; Female ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Male ; *Meat ; Middle Aged ; *Mortality ; North America ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are a major consequence of our dietary choices. Assessments of plant-based compared with meat-based diets are emerging at the intersection of public health, environment, and nutrition.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The objective was to compare the GHGEs associated with dietary patterns consumed in a large population across North America and to independently assess mortality according to dietary patterns in the same population.<br><br>DESIGN: Data from the Adventist Health Study 2 (AHS-2) were used to characterize the differential environmental and health impacts of the following 3 dietary patterns, which varied in the quantity of animal and plant foods: vegetarian, semivegetarian, and nonvegetarian. The GHGE intensities of 210 foods were calculated through life-cycle assessments and by using published data. The all-cause mortality rates and all-cause mortality HRs for the AHS-2 subjects were adjusted for a range of lifestyle and sociodemographic factors and estimated according to dietary pattern.<br><br>RESULTS: With the use of the nonvegetarian diet as a reference, the mean reductions in GHGEs for semivegetarian and vegetarian diets were 22% and 29%, respectively. The mortality rates for nonvegetarians, semivegetarians, and vegetarians were 6.66, 5.53, and 5.56 deaths per 1000 person-years, respectively. The differences were significant. Compared with nonvegetarians, mortality HRs were lower for semivegetarians (0.86) and vegetarians (0.91).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Moderate differences in the caloric intake of meat products provided nontrivial reductions in GHGEs and improved health outcomes, as shown through the mortality analyses. However, this does not mean that diets lower in GHGEs are healthy.}, }
@article {pmid24897849, year = {2014}, author = {Mogi, M and Tuno, N}, title = {Impact of climate change on the distribution of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in northern Japan: retrospective analyses.}, journal = {Journal of medical entomology}, volume = {51}, number = {3}, pages = {572-579}, doi = {10.1603/me13178}, pmid = {24897849}, issn = {0022-2585}, mesh = {Aedes/*physiology ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Japan ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on the distribution of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) was analyzed in northern Japan, where chronological distribution records are incomplete. We analyzed local climate data using linear regression of the thermal suitability index (TSI) for the mosquito and mean annual temperature as functions of time. In northern Japan, thermal conditions since the early 20th century have become increasingly suitable for Ae. albopictus, more as a result of decreasing coldness in the overwintering season than increasing warmth in the reproductive season. Based on recent discovery records of Ae. albopictus in the northern border range, we determined thermal criteria for estimating when its persistent establishment became thermally possible. Retrospective analyses indicated that those criteria were reached in most coastal lowlands of northern Honshu before the accelerated temperature increase after the mid-1980s and the first records of this species after 1990; at some sites, temperature criteria were reached during or before the early 20th century. Expansion of the thermally suitable range after 1990 was supported only for inland areas and the northernmost Pacific coast. The estimated expansion rate was approximately 26 km per decade. Our analyses also demonstrated the importance of local climate heterogeneity (apart from north-south or altitudinal temperature gradients) in determining the expansion pattern.}, }
@article {pmid24895591, year = {2014}, author = {Geremew, K and Gedefaw, M and Dagnew, Z and Jara, D}, title = {Current level and correlates of traditional cooking energy sources utilization in urban settings in the context of climate change and health, northwest Ethiopia: a case of Debre Markos town.}, journal = {BioMed research international}, volume = {2014}, number = {}, pages = {572473}, pmid = {24895591}, issn = {2314-6141}, mesh = {Adult ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Cooking/economics/*instrumentation/*methods ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Demography ; *Electricity ; Energy-Generating Resources/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environment ; Ethiopia ; Family Characteristics ; Female ; *Health ; Housing ; Humans ; Knowledge ; *Urban Population ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Traditional biomass has been the major source of cooking energy for major segment of Ethiopian population for thousands of years. Cognizant of this energy poverty, the Government of Ethiopia has been spending huge sum of money to increase hydroelectric power generating stations.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To assess current levels and correlates of traditional cooking energy sources utilization.<br><br>METHODS: A community based cross-sectional study was conducted employing both quantitative and qualitative approaches on systematically selected 423 households for quantitative and purposively selected 20 people for qualitative parts. SPSS version 16 for windows was used to analyze the quantitative data. Logistic regression was fitted to assess possible associations and its strength was measured using odds ratio at 95% CI. Qualitative data were analyzed thematically.<br><br>RESULT: The study indicated that 95% of households still use traditional biomass for cooking. Those who were less knowledgeable about negative health and environmental effects of traditional cooking energy sources were seven and six times more likely to utilize them compared with those who were knowledgeable (AOR (95% CI) = 7.56 (1.635, 34.926), AOR (95% CI) = 6.68 (1.80, 24.385), resp.). The most outstanding finding of this study was that people use traditional energy for cooking mainly due to lack of the knowledge and their beliefs about food prepared using traditional energy. That means "...people still believe that food cooked with charcoal is believed to taste delicious than cooked with other means."&#x2009;<br><br>CONCLUSION: The majority of households use traditional biomass for cooking due to lack of knowledge and belief. Therefore, mechanisms should be designed to promote electric energy and to teach the public about health effects of traditional cooking energy source.}, }
@article {pmid24895088, year = {2015}, author = {Ge, Q and Wang, H and Rutishauser, T and Dai, J}, title = {Phenological response to climate change in China: a meta-analysis.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {265-274}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12648}, pmid = {24895088}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Amphibians/*physiology ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; China ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Insecta/*physiology ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; *Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The change in the phenology of plants or animals reflects the response of living systems to climate change. Numerous studies have reported a consistent earlier spring phenophases in many parts of middle and high latitudes reflecting increasing temperatures with the exception of China. A systematic analysis of Chinese phenological response could complement the assessment of climate change impact for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Here, we analyze 1263 phenological time series (1960-2011, with 20+ years data) of 112 species extracted from 48 studies across 145 sites in China. Taxonomic groups include trees, shrubs, herbs, birds, amphibians and insects. Results demonstrate that 90.8% of the spring/summer phenophases time series show earlier trends and 69.0% of the autumn phenophases records show later trends. For spring/summer phenophases, the mean advance across all the taxonomic groups was 2.75 days decade(-1) ranging between 2.11 and 6.11 days decade(-1) for insects and amphibians, respectively. Herbs and amphibians show significantly stronger advancement than trees, shrubs and insect. The response of phenophases of different taxonomic groups in autumn is more complex: trees, shrubs, herbs and insects show a delay between 1.93 and 4.84 days decade(-1), while other groups reveal an advancement ranging from 1.10 to 2.11 days decade(-1) . For woody plants (including trees and shrubs), the stronger shifts toward earlier spring/summer were detected from the data series starting from more recent decades (1980s-2000s). The geographic factors (latitude, longitude and altitude) could only explain 9% and 3% of the overall variance in spring/summer and autumn phenological trends, respectively. The rate of change in spring/summer phenophase of woody plants (1960s-2000s) generally matches measured local warming across 49 sites in China (R=-0.33, P<0.05).}, }
@article {pmid24894008, year = {2014}, author = {Le Dang, H and Li, E and Nuberg, I and Bruwer, J}, title = {Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and influencing factors: a study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {54}, number = {2}, pages = {331-345}, pmid = {24894008}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Health Status ; Humans ; Income ; Interviews as Topic ; *Public Opinion ; Regression Analysis ; Risk Assessment/methods/trends ; Vietnam ; }, abstract = {Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid24893017, year = {2014}, author = {Khormi, HM and Kumar, L}, title = {Climate change and the potential global distribution of Aedes aegypti: spatial modelling using GIS and CLIMEX.}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {405-415}, doi = {10.4081/gh.2014.29}, pmid = {24893017}, issn = {1970-7096}, mesh = {*Aedes ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Demography/trends ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Geographic Information Systems ; Global Health/trends ; Insect Vectors ; Models, Statistical ; Spatial Analysis ; }, abstract = {We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on the dengue vector Aedes aegypti abundance using CLIMEX, a powerful tool for exploring the relationship between the fundamental and realised niche of any species. After calibrating the model using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records, we estimated potential distributions of the mosquito under current and future potential scenarios. The impact of climate change on its potential distribution was assessed with two global climate models, the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and the MIROC-H, run with two potential, future emission scenarios (A1B and A2) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compared today's climate situation with two arbitrarily chosen future time points (2030 and 2070) to see the impact on the worldwide distribution of A. aegypti . The model for the current global climate indicated favourable areas for the mosquito within its known distribution in tropical and subtropical areas. However, even if much of the tropics and subtropics will continue to be suitable, the climatically favourable areas for A. aegypti globally are projected to contract under the future scenarios produced by these models, while currently unfavourable areas, such as inland Australia, the Arabian Peninsula, southern Iran and some parts of North America may become climatically favourable for this mosquito species. The climate models for the Aedes dengue vector presented here should be useful for management purposes as they can be adapted for decision/making regarding allocation of resources for dengue risk toward areas where risk infection remains and away from areas where climatic suitability is likely to decrease in the future.}, }
@article {pmid24893010, year = {2014}, author = {Afshan, K and Fortes-Lima, CA and Artigas, P and Valero, AM and Qayyum, M and Mas-Coma, S}, title = {Impact of climate change and man-made irrigation systems on the transmission risk, long-term trend and seasonality of human and animal fascioliasis in Pakistan.}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {317-334}, doi = {10.4081/gh.2014.22}, pmid = {24893010}, issn = {1970-7096}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fasciola ; Fasciola hepatica ; Fascioliasis/*epidemiology/etiology/transmission/veterinary ; Humans ; Livestock/parasitology ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Large areas of the province of Punjab, Pakistan are endemic for fascioliasis, resulting in high economic losses due to livestock infection but also affecting humans directly. The prevalence in livestock varies pronouncedly in space and time (1-70%). Climatic factors influencing fascioliasis presence and potential spread were analysed based on data from five meteorological stations during 1990-2010. Variables such as wet days (Mt), water-budget-based system (Wb-bs) indices and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were obtained and correlated with geographical distribution, seasonality patterns and the two-decade evolution of fascioliasis in livestock throughout the province. The combined approach by these three indices proved to furnish a useful tool to analyse the complex epidemiology that includes (i) sheep-goats and cattlebuffaloes presenting different immunological responses to fasciolids; (ii) overlap of Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica; (iii) co-existence of highlands and lowlands in the area studied; and (iv) disease transmission following bi-seasonality with one peak related to natural rainfall and another peak related to man-made irrigation. Results suggest a human infection situation of concern and illustrate how climate and anthropogenic environment modifications influence both geographical distribution and seasonality of fascioliasis risks. Increased fascioliasis risk throughout the Punjab plain and its decrease in the northern highlands of the province became evident during the study period. The high risk in the lowlands is worrying given that Punjab province largely consists of low-altitude, highly irrigated plains. The importance of livestock in this province makes it essential to prioritise adequate control measures. An annual treatment scheme to control the disease is recommended to be applied throughout the whole province.}, }
@article {pmid24892838, year = {2014}, author = {Levy, S}, title = {Ticking time bomb? Climate change and Ixodes scapularis.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {122}, number = {6}, pages = {A168}, pmid = {24892838}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Ixodes/*growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid24892737, year = {2014}, author = {Kuntner, M and Năpăruş, M and Li, D and Coddington, JA}, title = {Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e98907}, pmid = {24892737}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Models, Theoretical ; *Phylogeny ; Spiders/classification ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.}, }
@article {pmid24892313, year = {2014}, author = {Devlin, L and Goralnik, M and Ross, WG and Tart, KT}, title = {Climate change and public health in North Carolina: a unique state offers a unique perspective.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {122}, number = {6}, pages = {A146-7}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.1408542}, pmid = {24892313}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; North Carolina ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid24891392, year = {2014}, author = {Marshall, J and Armour, KC and Scott, JR and Kostov, Y and Hausmann, U and Ferreira, D and Shepherd, TG and Bitz, CM}, title = {The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {372}, number = {2019}, pages = {20130040}, pmid = {24891392}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.}, }
@article {pmid24890127, year = {2014}, author = {van Loon, MP and Schieving, F and Rietkerk, M and Dekker, SC and Sterck, F and Anten, NPR}, title = {How light competition between plants affects their response to climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {203}, number = {4}, pages = {1253-1265}, doi = {10.1111/nph.12865}, pmid = {24890127}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Light ; Models, Biological ; Photosynthesis/radiation effects ; Plant Stomata/physiology/radiation effects ; Reproducibility of Results ; Glycine max/*physiology/*radiation effects ; }, abstract = {How plants respond to climate change is of major concern, as plants will strongly impact future ecosystem functioning, food production and climate. Here, we investigated how vegetation structure and functioning may be influenced by predicted increases in annual temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentration, and modeled the extent to which local plant-plant interactions may modify these effects. A canopy model was developed, which calculates photosynthesis as a function of light, nitrogen, temperature, CO2 and water availability, and considers different degrees of light competition between neighboring plants through canopy mixing; soybean (Glycine max) was used as a reference system. The model predicts increased net photosynthesis and reduced stomatal conductance and transpiration under atmospheric CO2 increase. When CO2 elevation is combined with warming, photosynthesis is increased more, but transpiration is reduced less. Intriguingly, when competition is considered, the optimal response shifts to producing larger leaf areas, but with lower stomatal conductance and associated vegetation transpiration than when competition is not considered. Furthermore, only when competition is considered are the predicted effects of elevated CO2 on leaf area index (LAI) well within the range of observed effects obtained by Free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments. Together, our results illustrate how competition between plants may modify vegetation responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24885704, year = {2014}, author = {Fu, ZZ and Li, YH and Zhang, KM and Li, Y}, title = {Molecular data and ecological niche modeling reveal population dynamics of widespread shrub Forsythia suspensa (Oleaceae) in China's warm-temperate zone in response to climate change during the Pleistocene.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {114}, pmid = {24885704}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Cell Nucleus/genetics ; China ; Climate Change ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; DNA, Plant/genetics ; Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; Forsythia/*genetics/physiology ; Genetic Variation ; Models, Genetic ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Despite its high number of endemic deciduous broad-leaved species in China's warm-temperate zone, far less attention has been paid to phylogeographic studies in this region. In this work, the phylogeographic history of Forsythia suspensa endemic to China's warm-temperate zone was investigated to explore the effect of climate change during the Pleistocene on the distribution of this deciduous broad-leaved species in China.<br><br>RESULTS: The cpDNA data revealed seven phylogeographical groups corresponding to geographical regions. By contrast, the nrDNA data supported the samples clustered into three groups, which was inconsistent with separate geographical regions supported by cpDNA data. Ecological niche modeling showed that the climatically suitable area during the cold period was larger than that during the warm period.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Both molecular data and ecological niche modeling indicated that F. suspensa expanded to nearby low-elevation plains in the glacial periods, and retreated to mountaintops during interglacial warmer stages. This study thus supported that F. suspensa persisted in situ during the glacial of the Pleistocene with enlarged distribution area, contrary to the hypothesis of long distance southward migration or large-scale range contraction.}, }
@article {pmid24882934, year = {2014}, author = {Semenov, MA and Stratonovitch, P and Alghabari, F and Gooding, MJ}, title = {Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change.}, journal = {Journal of cereal science}, volume = {59}, number = {3}, pages = {245-256}, pmid = {24882934}, issn = {0733-5210}, abstract = {Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.}, }
@article {pmid24881071, year = {2014}, author = {D'Amato, G and Cecchi, L and D'Amato, M and Annesi-Maesano, I}, title = {Climate change and respiratory diseases.}, journal = {European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society}, volume = {23}, number = {132}, pages = {161-169}, pmid = {24881071}, issn = {1600-0617}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Health Status ; Humans ; Lung/*physiopathology ; Lung Diseases/diagnosis/epidemiology/*physiopathology/therapy ; Prognosis ; *Respiration ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid24880596, year = {2014}, author = {Kong, D and MacLeod, M and Cousins, IT}, title = {Modelling the influence of climate change on the chemical concentrations in the Baltic Sea region with the POPCYCLING-Baltic model.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {110}, number = {}, pages = {31-40}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2014.02.044}, pmid = {24880596}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Baltic States ; Carbon/analysis ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Models, Chemical ; Oceans and Seas ; Organic Chemicals/*analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The effect of projected future changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation and particulate organic carbon on concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea regional environment is evaluated using the POPCYCLING-Baltic multimedia chemical fate model. Steady-state concentrations of hypothetical perfectly persistent chemicals with property combinations that encompass the entire plausible range for non-ionizing organic substances are modelled under two alternative climate change scenarios (IPCC A2 and B2) and compared to a baseline climate scenario. The contributions of individual climate parameters are deduced in model experiments in which only one of the four parameters is changed from the baseline scenario. Of the four selected climate parameters, temperature is the most influential, and wind speed is least. Chemical concentrations in the Baltic region are projected to change by factors of up to 3.0 compared to the baseline climate scenario. For chemicals with property combinations similar to legacy persistent organic pollutants listed by the Stockholm Convention, modelled concentration ratios between two climate change scenarios and the baseline scenario range from factors of 0.5 to 2.0. This study is a first step toward quantitatively assessing climate change-induced changes in the environmental concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea region.}, }
@article {pmid24878747, year = {2014}, author = {Ferrero, R and Lima, M and Gonzalez-Andujar, JL}, title = {Spatio-temporal dynamics of maize yield water constraints under climate change in Spain.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e98220}, pmid = {24878747}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; *Climate Change ; Models, Statistical ; Rain ; Spain ; *Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Stress, Physiological/drug effects ; Water/*pharmacology ; Zea mays/*drug effects/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {Many studies have analyzed the impact of climate change on crop productivity, but comparing the performance of water management systems has rarely been explored. Because water supply and crop demand in agro-systems may be affected by global climate change in shaping the spatial patterns of agricultural production, we should evaluate how and where irrigation practices are effective in mitigating climate change effects. Here we have constructed simple, general models, based on biological mechanisms and a theoretical framework, which could be useful in explaining and predicting crop productivity dynamics. We have studied maize in irrigated and rain-fed systems at a provincial scale, from 1996 to 2009 in Spain, one of the most prominent "hot-spots" in future climate change projections. Our new approach allowed us to: (1) evaluate new structural properties such as the stability of crop yield dynamics, (2) detect nonlinear responses to climate change (thresholds and discontinuities), challenging the usual linear way of thinking, and (3) examine spatial patterns of yield losses due to water constraints and identify clusters of provinces that have been negatively affected by warming. We have reduced the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on maize productivity by improving the understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors and providing a better spatial comprehension of the key processes. We have identified water stress and water management systems as being key causes of the yield gap, and detected vulnerable regions where efforts in research and policy should be prioritized in order to increase maize productivity.}, }
@article {pmid24878656, year = {2014}, author = {Johnson, RJ and Glaser, J and Sánchez-Lozada, LG}, title = {Chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology: a disease related to global warming?.}, journal = {MEDICC review}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {79-80}, doi = {10.37757/MR2014.V16.N2.15}, pmid = {24878656}, issn = {1527-3172}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods/*trends ; Causality ; Central America/epidemiology ; Dehydration/*complications/etiology ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Oryza ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/*epidemiology/etiology/pathology ; Saccharum ; Sri Lanka/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid24876295, year = {2014}, author = {Wolkovich, EM and Cleland, EE}, title = {Phenological niches and the future of invaded ecosystems with climate change.}, journal = {AoB PLANTS}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {24876295}, issn = {2041-2851}, abstract = {In recent years, research in invasion biology has focused increasing attention on understanding the role of phenology in shaping plant invasions. Multiple studies have found non-native species that tend to flower distinctly early or late in the growing season, advance more with warming or have shifted earlier with climate change compared with native species. This growing body of literature has focused on patterns of phenological differences, but there is a need now for mechanistic studies of how phenology contributes to invasions. To do this, however, requires understanding how phenology fits within complex functional trait relationships. Towards this goal, we review recent literature linking phenology with other functional traits, and discuss the role of phenology in mediating how plants experience disturbance and stress-via climate, herbivory and competition-across the growing season. Because climate change may alter the timing and severity of stress and disturbance in many systems, it could provide novel opportunities for invasion-depending upon the dominant climate controller of the system, the projected climate change, and the traits of native and non-native species. Based on our current understanding of plant phenological and growth strategies-especially rapid growing, early-flowering species versus later-flowering species that make slower-return investments in growth-we project optimal periods for invasions across three distinct systems under current climate change scenarios. Research on plant invasions and phenology within this predictive framework would provide a more rigorous test of what drives invader success, while at the same time testing basic plant ecological theory. Additionally, extensions could provide the basis to model how ecosystem processes may shift in the future with continued climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24875589, year = {2014}, author = {Hannah, L and Flint, L and Syphard, AD and Moritz, MA and Buckley, LB and McCullough, IM}, title = {Fine-grain modeling of species' response to climate change: holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {390-397}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2014.04.006}, pmid = {24875589}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Microclimate ; *Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {Microclimates have played a critical role in past species range shifts, suggesting that they could be important in biological response to future change. Terms are needed to discuss these future effects. We propose that populations occupying microclimates be referred to as holdouts, stepping stones and microrefugia. A holdout is a population that persists in a microclimate for a limited period of time under deteriorating climatic conditions. Stepping stones successively occupy microclimates in a way that facilitates species' range shifts. Microrefugia refer to populations that persist in microclimates through a period of unfavorable climate. Because climate projections show that return to present climate is highly unlikely, conservation strategies need to be built around holdouts and stepping stones, rather than low-probability microrefugia.}, }
@article {pmid24871481, year = {2014}, author = {Nahrgang, J and Varpe, O and Korshunova, E and Murzina, S and Hallanger, IG and Vieweg, I and Berge, J}, title = {Gender specific reproductive strategies of an arctic key species (Boreogadus saida) and implications of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e98452}, pmid = {24871481}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Body Weights and Measures ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Fertility/physiology ; *Food Chain ; Gadiformes/*physiology ; Gastrointestinal Contents ; Geography ; Gonads/anatomy &amp; histology ; Linear Models ; Male ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Seasons ; *Sex Characteristics ; Sex Ratio ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Arctic climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. What consequences this may have on the Arctic marine ecosystem depends to a large degree on how its species will respond both directly to elevated temperatures and more indirectly through ecological interactions. But despite an alarming recent warming of the Arctic with accompanying sea ice loss, reports evaluating ecological impacts of climate change in the Arctic remain sparse. Here, based upon a large-scale field study, we present basic new knowledge regarding the life history traits for one of the most important species in the entire Arctic, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). Furthermore, by comparing regions of contrasting climatic influence (domains), we present evidence as to how its growth and reproductive success is impaired in the warmer of the two domains. As the future Arctic is predicted to resemble today's Atlantic domains, we forecast changes in growth and life history characteristics of polar cod that will lead to alteration of its role as an Arctic keystone species. This will in turn affect community dynamics and energy transfer in the entire Arctic food chain.}, }
@article {pmid24866819, year = {2014}, author = {Zeuss, D and Brandl, R and Brändle, M and Rahbek, C and Brunzel, S}, title = {Global warming favours light-coloured insects in Europe.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {3874}, pmid = {24866819}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Butterflies/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Color ; Europe ; *Global Warming ; Odonata/*physiology ; Phylogeny ; *Pigmentation ; Regression Analysis ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Associations between biological traits of animals and climate are well documented by physiological and local-scale studies. However, whether an ecophysiological phenomenon can affect large-scale biogeographical patterns of insects is largely unknown. Insects absorb energy from the sun to become mobile, and their colouration varies depending on the prevailing climate where they live. Here we show, using data of 473 European butterfly and dragonfly species, that dark-coloured insect species are favoured in cooler climates and light-coloured species in warmer climates. By comparing distribution maps of dragonflies from 1988 and 2006, we provide support for a mechanistic link between climate, functional traits and species that affects geographical distributions even at continental scales. Our results constitute a foundation for better forecasting the effect of climate change on many insect groups.}, }
@article {pmid24865774, year = {2014}, author = {Clucas, GV and Dunn, MJ and Dyke, G and Emslie, SD and Naveen, R and Polito, MJ and Pybus, OG and Rogers, AD and Hart, T}, title = {A reversal of fortunes: climate change 'winners' and 'losers' in Antarctic Peninsula penguins.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {5024}, pmid = {24865774}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*genetics ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Fitness ; Spheniscidae/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. Antarctic ecosystems are no exception. Investigating past species responses to climatic events can distinguish natural from anthropogenic impacts. Climate change produces 'winners', species that benefit from these events and 'losers', species that decline or become extinct. Using molecular techniques, we assess the demographic history and population structure of Pygoscelis penguins in the Scotia Arc related to climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). All three pygoscelid penguins responded positively to post-LGM warming by expanding from glacial refugia, with those breeding at higher latitudes expanding most. Northern (Pygoscelis papua papua) and Southern (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) gentoo sub-species likely diverged during the LGM. Comparing historical responses with the literature on current trends, we see Southern gentoo penguins are responding to current warming as they did during post-LGM warming, expanding their range southwards. Conversely, Adélie and chinstrap penguins are experiencing a 'reversal of fortunes' as they are now declining in the Antarctic Peninsula, the opposite of their response to post-LGM warming. This suggests current climate warming has decoupled historic population responses in the Antarctic Peninsula, favoring generalist gentoo penguins as climate change 'winners', while Adélie and chinstrap penguins have become climate change 'losers'.}, }
@article {pmid24862723, year = {2014}, author = {Mokany, K and Prasad, S and Westcott, DA}, title = {Loss of frugivore seed dispersal services under climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {3971}, doi = {10.1038/ncomms4971}, pmid = {24862723}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Fruit/*physiology ; Herbivory/*physiology ; *Seed Dispersal ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The capacity of species to track shifting climates into the future will strongly influence outcomes for biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate. However, we know remarkably little about the dispersal abilities of most species and how these may be influenced by climate change. Here we show that climate change is projected to substantially reduce the seed dispersal services provided by frugivorous vertebrates in rainforests across the Australian Wet Tropics. Our model projections show reductions in both median and long-distance seed dispersal, which may markedly reduce the capacity of many rainforest plant species to track shifts in suitable habitat under climate change. However, our analyses suggest that active management to maintain the abundances of a small set of important frugivores under climate change could markedly reduce the projected loss of seed dispersal services and facilitate shifting distributions of rainforest plant species.}, }
@article {pmid24861341, year = {2014}, author = {Ebi, KL and Rocklöv, J}, title = {Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {24154}, pmid = {24861341}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cost of Illness ; Epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Health Planning/*methods ; Humans ; *Models, Statistical ; Policy Making ; Risk Assessment ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {Mathematical and statistical models are needed to understand the extent to which weather, climate variability, and climate change are affecting current and may affect future health burdens in the context of other risk factors and a range of possible development pathways, and the temporal and spatial patterns of any changes. Such understanding is needed to guide the design and the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Because each model projection captures only a narrow range of possible futures, and because models serve different purposes, multiple models are needed for each health outcome ('horses for courses'). Multiple modeling results can be used to bracket the ranges of when, where, and with what intensity negative health consequences could arise. This commentary explores some climate change and health modeling issues, particularly modeling exposure-response relationships, developing early warning systems, projecting health risks over coming decades, and modeling to inform decision-making. Research needs are also suggested.}, }
@article {pmid24860799, year = {2014}, author = {Hüner, NP and Dahal, K and Kurepin, LV and Savitch, L and Singh, J and Ivanov, AG and Kane, K and Sarhan, F}, title = {Potential for increased photosynthetic performance and crop productivity in response to climate change: role of CBFs and gibberellic acid.}, journal = {Frontiers in chemistry}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {18}, pmid = {24860799}, issn = {2296-2646}, abstract = {We propose that targeting the enhanced photosynthetic performance associated with the cold acclimation of winter cultivars of rye (Secale cereale L.), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and Brassica napus L. may provide a novel approach to improve crop productivity under abiotic as well as biotic stress conditions. In support of this hypothesis, we provide the physiological, biochemical, and molecular evidence that the dwarf phenotype induced by cold acclimation is coupled to significant enhancement in photosynthetic performance, resistance to photoinhibition, and a decreased dependence on photoprotection through non-photochemical quenching which result in enhanced biomass production and ultimately increased seed yield. These system-wide changes at the levels of phenotype, physiology, and biochemistry appear to be governed by the family of C-repeat/dehydration-responsive family of transcription factors (CBF/DREB1). We relate this phenomenon to the semi-dwarf, gibberellic acid insensitive (GAI), cereal varieties developed during the "green revolution" of the early 1960s and 1970s. We suggest that genetic manipulation of the family of C-repeat/dehydration-responsive element binding transcription factors (CBF/DREB1) may provide a novel approach for the maintenance and perhaps even the enhancement of plant productivity under conditions of sub-optimal growth conditions predicted for our future climate.}, }
@article {pmid24859099, year = {2014}, author = {Douglas, V and Chan, HM and Wesche, S and Dickson, C and Kassi, N and Netro, L and Williams, M}, title = {Reconciling traditional knowledge, food security, and climate change: experience from Old Crow, YT, Canada.}, journal = {Progress in community health partnerships : research, education, and action}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {21-27}, doi = {10.1353/cpr.2014.0007}, pmid = {24859099}, issn = {1557-0541}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Community-Based Participatory Research/methods/organization &amp; administration ; Culture ; Feeding Behavior/*ethnology ; Focus Groups ; Food Preservation/economics/methods ; Food Storage/economics/methods ; Food Supply/economics/*methods ; Gardening/*education/methods ; Humans ; Indians, North American/*education ; Nutritional Sciences/*education ; Transportation/economics/methods ; Yukon Territory ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Because of a lack of transportation infrastructure, Old Crow has the highest food costs and greatest reliance on traditional food species for sustenance of any community in Canada's Yukon Territory. Environmental, cultural, and economic change are driving increased perception of food insecurity in Old Crow.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To address community concerns regarding food security and supply in Old Crow and develop adaptation strategies to ameliorate their impact on the community.<br><br>METHODS: A community adaptation workshop was held on October 13, 2009, in which representatives of different stakeholders in the community discussed a variety of food security issues facing Old Crow and how they could be dealt with. Workshop data were analyzed using keyword, subject, and narrative analysis techniques to determine community priorities in food security and adaptation.<br><br>RESULTS: Community concern is high and favored adaptation options include agriculture, improved food storage, and conservation through increased traditional education. These results were presented to the community for review and revision, after which the Vuntut Gwitchin Government will integrate them into its ongoing adaptation planning measures.}, }
@article {pmid24855240, year = {2014}, author = {Palmer, T}, title = {Atmospheric science. Record-breaking winters and global climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {344}, number = {6186}, pages = {803-804}, doi = {10.1126/science.1255147}, pmid = {24855240}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Midwestern United States ; *Seasons ; *Snow ; }, }
@article {pmid24852009, year = {2014}, author = {La Sorte, FA and Butchart, SH and Jetz, W and Böhning-Gaese, K}, title = {Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e98361}, pmid = {24852009}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity of species to utilize these gradients under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24843158, year = {2014}, author = {Keegan, KM and Albert, MR and McConnell, JR and Baker, I}, title = {Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {22}, pages = {7964-7967}, pmid = {24843158}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Fires ; Freezing ; *Global Warming ; Greenland ; *Ice Cover ; Snow ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {In July 2012, over 97% of the Greenland Ice Sheet experienced surface melt, the first widespread melt during the era of satellite remote sensing. Analysis of six Greenland shallow firn cores from the dry snow region confirms that the most recent prior widespread melt occurred in 1889. A firn core from the center of the ice sheet demonstrated that exceptionally warm temperatures combined with black carbon sediments from Northern Hemisphere forest fires reduced albedo below a critical threshold in the dry snow region, and caused the melting events in both 1889 and 2012. We use these data to project the frequency of widespread melt into the year 2100. Since Arctic temperatures and the frequency of forest fires are both expected to rise with climate change, our results suggest that widespread melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet may begin to occur almost annually by the end of century. These events are likely to alter the surface mass balance of the ice sheet, leaving the surface susceptible to further melting.}, }
@article {pmid24837248, year = {2014}, author = {Szolnoki, A}, title = {The power of games: comment on "climate change governance, cooperation and self-organization" by Pacheco, Vasconcelos and Santos.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {589-590}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2014.04.006}, pmid = {24837248}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid24836442, year = {2014}, author = {Morrow, G and Bowen, K}, title = {Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {23550}, pmid = {24836442}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Dengue/epidemiology ; Diarrhea/epidemiology ; *Epidemiology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fiji/epidemiology ; Health Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Malnutrition/epidemiology ; Policy Making ; *Public Policy ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change.<br><br>DESIGN: The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations.<br><br>RESULTS: The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human health. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the Health in All Policies approach. Future research could support the Fiji health sector in developing climate change and health programmes.}, }
@article {pmid24835699, year = {2014}, author = {McMichael, AJ}, title = {Climate change: health risks mount while Nero fiddles.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {200}, number = {9}, pages = {507-508}, doi = {10.5694/mja14.00307}, pmid = {24835699}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid24835600, year = {2014}, author = {}, title = {Climate change: how soon is now?.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {383}, number = {9930}, pages = {1693}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60813-8}, pmid = {24835600}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Health/methods ; Health Impact Assessment/methods ; Health Status ; Humans ; Research Report ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid24835373, year = {2014}, author = {Komatsu, T and Fukuda, M and Mikami, A and Mizuno, S and Kantachumpoo, A and Tanoue, H and Kawamiya, M}, title = {Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in northeast Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and consequent effect on some fish.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {85}, number = {2}, pages = {317-324}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.04.032}, pmid = {24835373}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Asia ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Population Dynamics ; Sargassum/*physiology ; Seawater/chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming effects on seaweed beds are already perceptible. Their geographical distributions greatly depend on water temperatures. To predict future geographical distributions of brown alga, Sargassum horneri, forming large beds in the northwestern Pacific, we referred to future monthly surface water temperatures at about 1.1° of longitude and 0.6° of latitude in February and August in 2050 and 2100 simulated by 12 organizations under an A2 scenario of global warming. The southern limit of S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula in 2100, when tropical Sargassum species such as Sargassum tenuifolium may not completely replace S. horneri. Thus, their forests in 2100 do not substitute those of S. horneri in 2000. Fishes using the beds and seaweed rafts consisting of S. horneri in East China Sea suffer these disappearances.}, }
@article {pmid24834740, year = {2014}, author = {Hagerman, SM and Satterfield, T}, title = {Agreed but not preferred: expert views on taboo options for biodiversity conservation, given climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {548-559}, doi = {10.1890/13-0400.1}, pmid = {24834740}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Decision Making ; }, abstract = {Recent research indicates increasing openness among conservation experts toward a set of previously controversial proposals for biodiversity protection. These include actions such as assisted migration, and the application of climate-change-informed triage principles for decision-making (e.g., forgoing attention to target species deemed no longer viable). Little is known however, about the levels of expert agreement across different conservation adaptation actions, or the preferences that may come to shape policy recommendations. In this paper, we report findings from a web-based survey of biodiversity experts that assessed: (1) perceived risks of climate change (and other drivers) to biodiversity, (2) relative importance of different conservation goals, (3) levels of agreement/disagreement with the potential necessity of unconventional-taboo actions and approaches including affective evaluations of these, (4) preferences regarding the most important adaptation action for biodiversity, and (5) perceived barriers and strategic considerations regarding implementing adaptation initiatives. We found widespread agreement with a set of previously contentious approaches and actions, including the need for frameworks for prioritization and decision-making that take expected losses and emerging novel ecosystems into consideration. Simultaneously, this survey found enduring preferences for conventional actions (such as protected areas) as the most important policy action, and negative affective responses toward more interventionist proposals. We argue that expert views are converging on agreement across a set of taboo components in ways that differ from earlier published positions, and that these views are tempered by preferences for existing conventional actions and discomfort toward interventionist options. We discuss these findings in the context of anticipating some of the likely contours of future conservation debates. Lastly, we underscore the critical need for interdisciplinary, comparative, place-based adaptation research.}, }
@article {pmid24834735, year = {2014}, author = {Hansen, AJ and Piekielek, N and Davis, C and Haas, J and Theobald, DM and Gross, JE and Monahan, WB and Olliff, T and Running, SW}, title = {Exposure of U.S. National Parks to land use and climate change 1900-2100.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {484-502}, doi = {10.1890/13-0905.1}, pmid = {24834735}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Introduced Species ; Models, Theoretical ; Time Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {Many protected areas may not be adequately safeguarding biodiversity from human activities on surrounding lands and global change. The magnitude of such change agents and the sensitivity of ecosystems to these agents vary among protected areas. Thus, there is a need to assess vulnerability across networks of protected areas to determine those most at risk and to lay the basis for developing effective adaptation strategies. We conducted an assessment of exposure of U.S. National Parks to climate and land use change and consequences for vegetation communities. We first defined park protected-area centered ecosystems (PACEs) based on ecological principles. We then drew on existing land use, invasive species, climate, and biome data sets and models to quantify exposure of PACEs from 1900 through 2100. Most PACEs experienced substantial change over the 20th century (> 740% average increase in housing density since 1940, 13% of vascular plants are presently nonnative, temperature increase of 1 degree C/100 yr since 1895 in 80% of PACEs), and projections suggest that many of these trends will continue at similar or increasingly greater rates (255% increase in housing density by 2100, temperature increase of 2.5 degrees-4.5 degrees C/100 yr, 30% of PACE areas may lose their current biomes by 2030). In the coming century, housing densities are projected to increase in PACEs at about 82% of the rate of since 1940. The rate of climate warming in the coming century is projected to be 2.5-5.8 times higher than that measured in the past century. Underlying these averages, exposure of individual park PACEs to change agents differ in important ways. For example, parks such as Great Smoky Mountains exhibit high land use and low climate exposure, others such as Great Sand Dunes exhibit low land use and high climate exposure, and a few such as Point Reyes exhibit high exposure on both axes. The cumulative and synergistic effects of such changes in land use, invasives, and climate are expected to dramatically impact ecosystem function and biodiversity in national parks. These results are foundational to developing effective adaptation strategies and suggest policies to better safeguard parks under broad-scale environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid24834320, year = {2014}, author = {Lötter, D and Maitre, D}, title = {Modelling the distribution of Aspalathus linearis (Rooibos tea): implications of climate change for livelihoods dependent on both cultivation and harvesting from the wild.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {8}, pages = {1209-1221}, pmid = {24834320}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Aspalathus linearis (Burm. f.) R. Dahlgren (rooibos) is endemic to the Fynbos Biome of South Africa, which is an internationally recognized biodiversity hot spot. Rooibos is both an invaluable wild resource and commercially cultivated crop in suitable areas. Climate change predictions for the region indicate a significant warming scenario coupled with a decline in winter rainfall. First estimates of possible consequences for biodiversity point to species extinctions of 23% in the long term in the Fynbos Biome. Bioclimatic modelling using the maximum entropy method was used to develop an estimate of the realized niche of wild rooibos and the current geographic distribution of areas suitable for commercially production. The distribution modelling provided a good match to the known distribution and production area of A. linearis. An ensemble of global climate models that assume the A2 emissions scenario of high energy requirements was applied to develop possible scenarios of range/suitability shift under future climate conditions. When these were extrapolated to a future climate (2041-2070) both wild and cultivated tea exhibited substantial range contraction with some range shifts southeastwards and upslope. Most of the areas where range expansion was indicated are located in existing conservation areas or include conservation worthy vegetation. These findings will be critical in directing conservation efforts as well as developing strategies for farmers to cope with and adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24833370, year = {2014}, author = {Sumner, T}, title = {Climate change. No stopping the collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {344}, number = {6185}, pages = {683}, doi = {10.1126/science.344.6185.683}, pmid = {24833370}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Ice Cover ; }, }
@article {pmid24832685, year = {2014}, author = {Lester, RE and Close, PG and Barton, JL and Pope, AJ and Brown, SC}, title = {Predicting the likely response of data-poor ecosystems to climate change using space-for-time substitution across domains.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {11}, pages = {3471-3481}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12634}, pmid = {24832685}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Estuaries ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Spatial Analysis ; Time Factors ; Victoria ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {Predicting ecological response to climate change is often limited by a lack of relevant local data from which directly applicable mechanistic models can be developed. This limits predictions to qualitative assessments or simplistic rules of thumb in data-poor regions, making management of the relevant systems difficult. We demonstrate a method for developing quantitative predictions of ecological response in data-poor ecosystems based on a space-for-time substitution, using distant, well-studied systems across an inherent climatic gradient to predict ecological response. Changes in biophysical data across the spatial gradient are used to generate quantitative hypotheses of temporal ecological responses that are then tested in a target region. Transferability of predictions among distant locations, the novel outcome of this method, is demonstrated via simple quantitative relationships that identify direct and indirect impacts of climate change on physical, chemical and ecological variables using commonly available data sources. Based on a limited subset of data, these relationships were demonstrably plausible in similar yet distant (>2000 km) ecosystems. Quantitative forecasts of ecological change based on climate-ecosystem relationships from distant regions provides a basis for research planning and informed management decisions, especially in the many ecosystems for which there are few data. This application of gradient studies across domains - to investigate ecological response to climate change - allows for the quantification of effects on potentially numerous, interacting and complex ecosystem components and how they may vary, especially over long time periods (e.g. decades). These quantitative and integrated long-term predictions will be of significant value to natural resource practitioners attempting to manage data-poor ecosystems to prevent or limit the loss of ecological value. The method is likely to be applicable to many ecosystem types, providing a robust scientific basis for estimating likely impacts of future climate change in ecosystems where no such method currently exists.}, }
@article {pmid24831180, year = {2014}, author = {Srygley, RB}, title = {Effects of temperature and moisture on Mormon cricket reproduction with implications for responses to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of insect physiology}, volume = {65}, number = {}, pages = {57-62}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinsphys.2014.05.005}, pmid = {24831180}, issn = {1879-1611}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Temperature/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Gryllidae/embryology/*physiology ; *Hot Temperature ; Light ; Male ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Sexual Behavior, Animal/*physiology ; Soil ; Water ; }, abstract = {During the last decade, populations of flightless Mormon crickets Anabrus simplex (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) increased suddenly over vast areas of the Western United States, suggesting that climate is an important factor driving outbreaks. Moreover summer temperatures are predicted to increase and precipitation is expected to decrease in most areas of the U.S. Great Basin, but little is known of the response of Mormon crickets to changes in temperature and soil moisture. In a laboratory study, we varied ambient temperature and lighting and measured the propensity of mating pairs to mate, and the proportion of eggs that developed into embryos. We found that reproduction was optimal when ambient temperature reached 30°C and the insects were beneath broad-spectrum lights such that maternal body and soil temperatures reached 35°C. Fewer eggs that developed fully were laid when maternal body and soil temperatures reached 30°C or 37-39°C. We also varied initial soil moisture from 0% to 100% saturated and found that more eggs reached embryonic diapause when initial soil moisture was 25% or 50% of saturated volume. However more of the developed eggs hatched when treated in summer soils with 0-25% of saturated moisture. We conclude that small changes in temperature had large effects on reproduction, whereas large changes in moisture had very small effects on reproduction. This is the first report of Mormon crickets mating in a laboratory setting and laying eggs that hatched, facilitating further research on the role of maternal and embryonic environments in changes in population size.}, }
@article {pmid24831117, year = {2014}, author = {Garza, M and Feria Arroyo, TP and Casillas, EA and Sanchez-Cordero, V and Rivaldi, CL and Sarkar, S}, title = {Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {e2818}, pmid = {24831117}, issn = {1935-2735}, support = {H75 DP001812/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHS/United States ; H75DP001812/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Chagas Disease/*transmission ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Insect Vectors/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; North America ; Triatoma/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.<br><br>We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24830827, year = {2014}, author = {Santos, HF and Carmo, FL and Duarte, G and Dini-Andreote, F and Castro, CB and Rosado, AS and van Elsas, JD and Peixoto, RS}, title = {Climate change affects key nitrogen-fixing bacterial populations on coral reefs.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {2272-2279}, pmid = {24830827}, issn = {1751-7370}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*microbiology ; Bacteria/*classification/genetics/isolation &amp; purification/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Molecular Sequence Data ; *Nitrogen Fixation/genetics ; Oxidoreductases/genetics ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Coral reefs are at serious risk due to events associated with global climate change. Elevated ocean temperatures have unpredictable consequences for the ocean's biogeochemical cycles. The nitrogen cycle is driven by complex microbial transformations, including nitrogen fixation. This study investigated the effects of increased seawater temperature on bacteria able to fix nitrogen (diazotrophs) that live in association with the mussid coral Mussismilia harttii. Consistent increases in diazotroph abundances and diversities were found at increased temperatures. Moreover, gradual shifts in the dominance of particular diazotroph populations occurred as temperature increased, indicating a potential future scenario of climate change. The temperature-sensitive diazotrophs may provide useful bioindicators of the effects of thermal stress on coral reef health, allowing the impact of thermal anomalies to be monitored. In addition, our findings support the development of research on different strategies to improve the fitness of corals during events of thermal stress, such as augmentation with specific diazotrophs.}, }
@article {pmid24830452, year = {2014}, author = {McIver, L and Woodward, A and Davies, S and Tibwe, T and Iddings, S}, title = {Assessment of the health impacts of climate change in Kiribati.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {5224-5240}, pmid = {24830452}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Health Impact Assessment/*methods ; Health Planning/*methods ; Humans ; Micronesia ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Kiribati-a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation-is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.}, }
@article {pmid24830284, year = {2014}, author = {Lowitt, E}, title = {How to survive climate change and still run a thriving business.}, journal = {Harvard business review}, volume = {92}, number = {4}, pages = {86-92, 132}, pmid = {24830284}, issn = {0017-8012}, mesh = {Checklist ; *Climate Change ; *Commerce ; *Efficiency, Organizational ; Humans ; Institutional Management Teams ; Operations Research ; *Organizational Objectives ; Planning Techniques ; Product Line Management ; }, abstract = {Climate change presents clear and pressing threats to business--materials and product shortages, price volatility, legal bans or consumer backlash, and damaged transportation infrastructure, to name just a few. But there are opportunities as well. Lowitt, a consultant in the sustainability field, has developed a series of detailed checklists that will help smart managers reduce operational, regulatory, and reputational risk while finding new ways to cut costs, improve performance, enhance customer relationships, and otherwise increase competitiveness. The checklist recommendations, tested and refined through Lowitt's research into and work with firms including Coca-Cola, GE, and Owens Corning, cover four broad areas in the product life cycle: sourcing, manufacturing, distribution, and consumption. Actions range from educating and incentivizing employees to use climate change-conscious behavior to measuring and reporting key metrics to determining when alternative materials, methods, sites, or contract partners may be called for. Like any such tool, the checklists don't provide a one-size-fits-all plan. Rather, they equip executives to customize their strategies according to factors such as their goods and services, risk tolerance, customer needs, and reliance on third parties throughout the value chain.}, }
@article {pmid24828180, year = {2014}, author = {Campbell, B}, title = {Climate change: Call for UN to act on food security.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {509}, number = {7500}, pages = {288}, pmid = {24828180}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Food Supply/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; United Nations/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid24824363, year = {2014}, author = {Korkala, EA and Hugg, TT and Jaakkola, JJ}, title = {Awareness of climate change and the dietary choices of young adults in Finland: a population-based cross-sectional study.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e97480}, pmid = {24824363}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Attitude ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Cross-Sectional Studies/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Diet Surveys/*methods ; Female ; Finland ; Food Preferences/*psychology ; Humans ; Linear Models ; Male ; *Public Opinion ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major public health threat that is exacerbated by food production. Food items differ substantially in the amount of greenhouse gases their production generates and therefore individuals, if willing, can mitigate climate change through dietary choices. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study to assess if the understanding of climate change, concern over climate change or socio-economic characteristics are reflected in the frequencies of climate-friendly food choices. The study population comprised 1623 young adults in Finland who returned a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 64.0%). We constructed a Climate-Friendly Diet Score (CFDS) ranging theoretically from -14 to 14 based on the consumption of 14 food items. A higher CFDS indicated a climate-friendlier diet. Multivariate linear regression analyses on the determinants of CFDS revealed that medium concern raised CFDS on average by 0.51 points (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.03, 0.98) and high concern by 1.30 points (95% CI 0.80, 1.80) compared to low concern. Understanding had no effect on CFDS on its own. Female gender raised CFDS by 1.92 (95% CI 1.59, 2.25). Unemployment decreased CFDS by 0.92 (95% CI -1.68, -0.15). Separate analyses of genders revealed that high concern over climate change brought about a greater increase in CFDS in females than in males. Good understanding of climate change was weakly connected to climate-friendly diet among females only. Our results indicate that increasing awareness of climate change could lead to increased consumption of climate-friendly food, reduction in GHG emissions, and thus climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid24823495, year = {2014}, author = {Braunisch, V and Coppes, J and Arlettaz, R and Suchant, R and Zellweger, F and Bollmann, K}, title = {Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {e97718}, pmid = {24823495}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*physiology ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; *Forests ; Germany ; Logistic Models ; Models, Biological ; Species Specificity ; Switzerland ; }, abstract = {Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24822077, year = {2014}, author = {Koskella, B}, title = {Research highlights for issue 4: Predicting the evolutionary response of populations to climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {431-432}, pmid = {24822077}, issn = {1752-4571}, }
@article {pmid24818407, year = {2013}, author = {Qian, YJ and Li, SZ and Xu, JF and Zhang, L and Fu, Q and Zhou, XN}, title = {[Establishment of policy indicators of adaptation to the impact of climate change on the transmission of schistosomiasis and malaria in China].}, journal = {Zhongguo ji sheng chong xue yu ji sheng chong bing za zhi = Chinese journal of parasitology &amp; parasitic diseases}, volume = {31}, number = {6}, pages = {433-437}, pmid = {24818407}, issn = {1000-7423}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Malaria/*prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Schistosomiasis/*prevention &amp; control/transmission ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To set up a framework of indicators for schistosomiasis and malaria to guide the formulation and evaluation of vector-borne disease control policies focusing on adaptation to the negative impact of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: A 2-level indicator framework was set up on the basis of literature review, and Delphi method was applied to a total of 22 and 19 experts working on schistosomiasis and malaria, respectively. The result was analyzed to calculate the weight of various indicators.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 41 questionnaires was delivered, and 38 with valid response (92.7%). The system included 4 indicators at first level, i.e. surveillance, scientific research, disease control and intervention, and adaptation capacity building, with 25 indicators for schistosomiasis and 21 for malaria at the second level. Among indicators at the first level, disease surveillance ranked first with a weight of 0.32. Among the indicators at the second level, vector monitoring scored the highest in terms of both schistosomiasis and malaria.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The indicators set up by Delphi method are practical,universal and effective ones using in the field, which is also useful to technically support the establishment of adaptation to climate change in the field of public health.}, }
@article {pmid24809000, year = {2014}, author = {Dodo, MK}, title = {Examining the potential impacts of climate change on international security: EU-Africa partnership on climate change.}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {194}, pmid = {24809000}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {ABSTRACT: Climate Change like many global problems nowadays is recognized as a threat to the international security and cooperation. In theoretical terms, it is being securitized and included in the traditional security studies. Climate change and its accompanying environmental degradation are perceived to be a threat that can have incalculable consequences on the international community. The consequences are said to have more effects in small island developing nations and Africa where many States are fragile and overwhelmed with mounting challenges. In recent years, the security implications of the climate change are being addressed from national, regional and multilateral level. Against this backdrop, this paper intends to contribute to the debate on climate change and international security and present a broader perspective on the discussion. The paper will draw from the EU-Africa partnership on climate change and is structured as follows: the first part introduces the background of the international climate change policy and its securitization, the second part covers the EU-Africa relations and EU-Africa partnership on climate change, and the third part discusses the Congo Basin Forest Partnership as a concrete example of EU-Africa Partnership on Climate Change. Lastly, the paper concludes by drawing some conclusions and offers some policy perspectives and recommendations.<br><br>JEL CLASSIFICATION: Q54; 055; 052; 01;}, }
@article {pmid24807250, year = {2014}, author = {Groom, SV and Stevens, MI and Schwarz, MP}, title = {Parallel responses of bees to Pleistocene climate change in three isolated archipelagos of the southwestern Pacific.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {281}, number = {1785}, pages = {20133293}, pmid = {24807250}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees/genetics/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Electron Transport Complex IV/genetics ; Fiji ; Insect Proteins/genetics ; Mitochondrial Proteins/genetics ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; Population Density ; Samoa ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Vanuatu ; }, abstract = {The impacts of glacial cycles on the geographical distribution and size of populations have been explored for numerous terrestrial and marine taxa. However, most studies have focused on high latitudes, with only a few focused on the response of biota to the last glacial maximum (LGM) in equatorial regions. Here, we examine how population sizes of key bee fauna in the southwest Pacific archipelagos of Fiji, Vanuatu and Samoa have fluctuated over the Quaternary. We show that all three island faunas suffered massive population declines, roughly corresponding in time to the LGM, followed by rapid expansion post-LGM. Our data therefore suggest that Pleistocene climate change has had major impacts across a very broad tropical region. While other studies indicate widespread Holarctic effects of the LGM, our data suggest a much wider range of latitudes, extending to the tropics, where these climate change repercussions were important. As key pollinators, the inferred changes in these bee faunas may have been critical in the development of the diverse Pacific island flora. The magnitude of these responses indicates future climate change scenarios may have alarming consequences for Pacific island systems involving pollinator-dependent plant communities and agricultural crops.}, }
@article {pmid24805920, year = {2015}, author = {Hopkins, D}, title = {Applying a Comprehensive Contextual Climate Change Vulnerability Framework to New Zealand's Tourism Industry.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {110-120}, pmid = {24805920}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Decision Making ; *Environmental Policy ; Industry ; Models, Theoretical ; New Zealand ; Recreation ; *Travel ; }, abstract = {Conceptualisations of 'vulnerability' vary amongst scholarly communities, contributing to a wide variety of applications. Research investigating vulnerability to climate change has often excluded non-climatic changes which may contribute to degrees of vulnerability perceived or experienced. This paper introduces a comprehensive contextual vulnerability framework which incorporates physical, social, economic and political factors which could amplify or reduce vulnerability. The framework is applied to New Zealand's tourism industry to explore its value in interpreting a complex, human-natural environment system with multiple competing vulnerabilities. The comprehensive contextual framework can inform government policy and industry decision making, integrating understandings of climate change within the broader context of internal and external social, physical, economic, and institutional stressors.}, }
@article {pmid24805369, year = {2014}, author = {Liu, B and Abbott, RJ and Lu, Z and Tian, B and Liu, J}, title = {Diploid hybrid origin of Ostryopsis intermedia (Betulaceae) in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau triggered by Quaternary climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {3013-3027}, doi = {10.1111/mec.12783}, pmid = {24805369}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; Betulaceae/*classification/genetics ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; DNA, Plant/genetics ; DNA, Ribosomal Spacer/genetics ; Diploidy ; Ecosystem ; *Evolution, Molecular ; *Genetic Speciation ; Genetics, Population ; Hybridization, Genetic ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Models, Genetic ; Phylogeny ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {Despite the well-known effects that Quaternary climate oscillations had on shaping intraspecific diversity, their role in driving homoploid hybrid speciation is less clear. Here, we examine their importance in the putative homoploid hybrid origin and evolution of Ostryopsis intermedia, a diploid species occurring in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), a biodiversity hotspot. We investigated interspecific relationships between this species and its only other congeners, O. davidiana and O. nobilis, based on four sets of nuclear and chloroplast population genetic data and tested alternative speciation hypotheses. All nuclear data distinguished the three species clearly and supported a close relationship between O. intermedia and the disjunctly distributed O. davidiana. Chloroplast DNA sequence variation identified two tentative lineages, which distinguished O. intermedia from O. davidiana; however, both were present in O. nobilis. Admixture analyses of genetic polymorphisms at 20 SSR loci and sequence variation at 11 nuclear loci and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) tests supported the hypothesis that O. intermedia originated by homoploid hybrid speciation from O. davidiana and O. nobilis. We further estimated that O. davidiana and O. nobilis diverged 6-11 Ma, while O. intermedia originated 0.5-1.2 Ma when O. davidiana is believed to have migrated southward, contacted and hybridized with O. nobilis possibly during the largest Quaternary glaciation that occurred in this region. Our findings highlight the importance of Quaternary climate change in the QTP in causing hybrid speciation in this important biodiversity hotspot.}, }
@article {pmid24804459, year = {2014}, author = {Krumhansl, KA and Lauzon-Guay, JS and Scheibling, RE}, title = {Modeling effects of climate change and phase shifts on detrital production of a kelp bed.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {95}, number = {3}, pages = {763-774}, doi = {10.1890/13-0228.1}, pmid = {24804459}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Herbivory ; Kelp/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Nova Scotia ; Population Dynamics ; Sea Urchins/physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The exchange of energy and nutrients between ecosystems (i.e., resource subsidies) plays a central role in ecological dynamics over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Little attention has been paid to the role of anthropogenic impacts on natural systems in altering the magnitude, timing, and quality of resource subsidies. Kelp ecosystems are highly productive on a local scale and export over 80% of kelp primary production as detritus, subsidizing consumers across broad spatial scales. Here, we generate a model of detrital production from a kelp bed in Nova Scotia to hindcast trends in detrital production based on temperature and wave height recorded in the study region from 1976 to 2009, and to project changes in detrital production that may result from future climate change. Historical and projected increases in temperature and wave height led to higher rates of detrital production through increased blade breakage and kelp dislodgment from the substratum, but this reduced kelp biomass and led to a decline in detrital production in the long-term. We also used the model to demonstrate that the phase shift from a highly productive kelp bed to a low-productivity barrens, driven by the grazing activity of sea urchins, reduces kelp detrital production by several orders of magnitude, an effect that would be exacerbated by projected increases in temperature and wave action. These results indicate that climate-mediated changes in ecological dynamics operating on local scales may alter the magnitude of resource subsidies to adjacent ecosystems, affecting ecological dynamics on regional scales.}, }
@article {pmid24802817, year = {2014}, author = {Constable, AJ and Melbourne-Thomas, J and Corney, SP and Arrigo, KR and Barbraud, C and Barnes, DK and Bindoff, NL and Boyd, PW and Brandt, A and Costa, DP and Davidson, AT and Ducklow, HW and Emmerson, L and Fukuchi, M and Gutt, J and Hindell, MA and Hofmann, EE and Hosie, GW and Iida, T and Jacob, S and Johnston, NM and Kawaguchi, S and Kokubun, N and Koubbi, P and Lea, MA and Makhado, A and Massom, RA and Meiners, K and Meredith, MP and Murphy, EJ and Nicol, S and Reid, K and Richerson, K and Riddle, MJ and Rintoul, SR and Smith, WO and Southwell, C and Stark, JS and Sumner, M and Swadling, KM and Takahashi, KT and Trathan, PN and Welsford, DC and Weimerskirch, H and Westwood, KJ and Wienecke, BC and Wolf-Gladrow, D and Wright, SW and Xavier, JC and Ziegler, P}, title = {Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {10}, pages = {3004-3025}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12623}, pmid = {24802817}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; *Aquatic Organisms ; Biota ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Ice Cover ; Oceans and Seas ; Water Movements ; Wind ; }, abstract = {Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) marine ecosystems have been changing for at least the last 30 years, including in response to increasing ocean temperatures and changes in the extent and seasonality of sea ice; the magnitude and direction of these changes differ between regions around Antarctica that could see populations of the same species changing differently in different regions. This article reviews current and expected changes in ASO physical habitats in response to climate change. It then reviews how these changes may impact the autecology of marine biota of this polar region: microbes, zooplankton, salps, Antarctic krill, fish, cephalopods, marine mammals, seabirds, and benthos. The general prognosis for ASO marine habitats is for an overall warming and freshening, strengthening of westerly winds, with a potential pole-ward movement of those winds and the frontal systems, and an increase in ocean eddy activity. Many habitat parameters will have regionally specific changes, particularly relating to sea ice characteristics and seasonal dynamics. Lower trophic levels are expected to move south as the ocean conditions in which they are currently found move pole-ward. For Antarctic krill and finfish, the latitudinal breadth of their range will depend on their tolerance of warming oceans and changes to productivity. Ocean acidification is a concern not only for calcifying organisms but also for crustaceans such as Antarctic krill; it is also likely to be the most important change in benthic habitats over the coming century. For marine mammals and birds, the expected changes primarily relate to their flexibility in moving to alternative locations for food and the energetic cost of longer or more complex foraging trips for those that are bound to breeding colonies. Few species are sufficiently well studied to make comprehensive species-specific vulnerability assessments possible. Priorities for future work are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid24796872, year = {2014}, author = {Durán, J and Morse, JL and Groffman, PM and Campbell, JL and Christenson, LM and Driscoll, CT and Fahey, TJ and Fisk, MC and Mitchell, MJ and Templer, PH}, title = {Winter climate change affects growing-season soil microbial biomass and activity in northern hardwood forests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {11}, pages = {3568-3577}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12624}, pmid = {24796872}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Biomass ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; New Hampshire ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Seasons ; Snow ; Soil/chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Understanding the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to global change remains a major challenge of ecological research. We exploited a natural elevation gradient in a northern hardwood forest to determine how reductions in snow accumulation, expected with climate change, directly affect dynamics of soil winter frost, and indirectly soil microbial biomass and activity during the growing season. Soils from lower elevation plots, which accumulated less snow and experienced more soil temperature variability during the winter (and likely more freeze/thaw events), had less extractable inorganic nitrogen (N), lower rates of microbial N production via potential net N mineralization and nitrification, and higher potential microbial respiration during the growing season. Potential nitrate production rates during the growing season were particularly sensitive to changes in winter snow pack accumulation and winter soil temperature variability, especially in spring. Effects of elevation and winter conditions on N transformation rates differed from those on potential microbial respiration, suggesting that N-related processes might respond differently to winter climate change in northern hardwood forests than C-related processes.}, }
@article {pmid24796720, year = {2014}, author = {Müller, C and Waha, K and Bondeau, A and Heinke, J}, title = {Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {2505-2517}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12586}, pmid = {24796720}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Environment ; Hydrology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid24795775, year = {2014}, author = {Mpeshe, SC and Luboobi, LS and Nkansah-Gyekye, Y}, title = {Modeling the impact of climate change on the dynamics of Rift Valley Fever.}, journal = {Computational and mathematical methods in medicine}, volume = {2014}, number = {}, pages = {627586}, pmid = {24795775}, issn = {1748-6718}, mesh = {Aedes ; Algorithms ; Animals ; Basic Reproduction Number ; *Climate Change ; Insect Vectors ; Livestock ; Models, Statistical ; Probability ; Rift Valley Fever/*transmission ; Rift Valley fever virus/*genetics ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Software ; }, abstract = {A deterministic SEIR model of rift valley fever (RVF) with climate change parameters was considered to compute the basic reproduction number ℛ 0 and investigate the impact of temperature and precipitation on ℛ 0. To study the effect of model parameters to ℛ 0, sensitivity and elasticity analysis of ℛ 0 were performed. When temperature and precipitation effects are not considered, ℛ 0 is more sensitive to the expected number of infected Aedes spp. due to one infected livestock and more elastic to the expected number of infected livestock due to one infected Aedes spp. When climatic data are used, ℛ 0 is found to be more sensitive and elastic to the expected number of infected eggs laid by Aedes spp. via transovarial transmission, followed by the expected number of infected livestock due to one infected Aedes spp. and the expected number of infected Aedes spp. due to one infected livestock for both regions Arusha and Dodoma. These results call for attention to parameters regarding incubation period, the adequate contact rate of Aedes spp. and livestock, the infective periods of livestock and Aedes spp., and the vertical transmission in Aedes species.}, }
@article {pmid24795181, year = {2014}, author = {Tsvey, AL and Sokolov, LV}, title = {Impact of climate change on the physiological condition of passerine birds during migration.}, journal = {Doklady biological sciences : proceedings of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Biological sciences sections}, volume = {455}, number = {1}, pages = {99-101}, pmid = {24795181}, issn = {1608-3105}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Body Weight ; *Climate Change ; Passeriformes/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid24793327, year = {2014}, author = {Megaritis, AG and Murphy, BN and Racherla, PN and Adams, PJ and Pandis, SN}, title = {Impact of climate change on mercury concentrations and deposition in the eastern United States.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {487}, number = {}, pages = {299-312}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.03.084}, pmid = {24793327}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Mercury/*analysis ; Seasons ; United States ; }, abstract = {The global-regional climate-air pollution modeling system (GRE-CAPS) was applied over the eastern United States to study the impact of climate change on the concentration and deposition of atmospheric mercury. Summer and winter periods (300 days for each) were simulated, and the present-day model predictions (2000s) were compared to the future ones (2050s) assuming constant emissions. Climate change affects Hg(2+) concentrations in both periods. On average, atmospheric Hg(2+) levels are predicted to increase in the future by 3% in summer and 5% in winter respectively due to enhanced oxidation of Hg(0) under higher temperatures. The predicted concentration change of Hg(2+) was found to vary significantly in space due to regional-scale changes in precipitation, ranging from -30% to 30% during summer and -20% to 40% during winter. Particulate mercury, Hg(p) has a similar spatial response to climate change as Hg(2+), while Hg(0) levels are not predicted to change significantly. In both periods, the response of mercury deposition to climate change varies spatially with an average predicted increase of 6% during summer and 4% during winter. During summer, deposition increases are predicted mostly in the western parts of the domain while mercury deposition is predicted to decrease in the Northeast and also in many areas in the Midwest and Southeast. During winter mercury deposition is predicted to change from -30% to 50% mainly due to the changes in rainfall and the corresponding changes in wet deposition.}, }
@article {pmid24790810, year = {2014}, author = {Linger, E}, title = {Agro-ecosystem and socio-economic role of homegarden agroforestry in Jabithenan District, North-Western Ethiopia: implication for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {SpringerPlus}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {154}, pmid = {24790810}, issn = {2193-1801}, abstract = {Homegarden agroforestry is believed to be more diverse and provide multiple services for household than other monocropping system and this is due to the combination of crops, trees and livestock. The aim of this study was to assess socio-economic and agro-ecological role of homegardens in Jabithenan district, North-western Ethiopia. Two sites purposively and two villages randomly from each site were selected. Totally 96 households; in which 48 from homegarden agroforestry user and 48 from non-tree based garden user were selected for this study. Socio-economic data and potential economic and agro-ecosystem role of homegarden agroforestry over non-tree based garden were collected by using semi-structured and structured questionnaires to the households. Homegarden agroforestry significantly (P < 0.05) improved the farmers cash income than non-tree based garden. With insignificant garden size; homegarden agroforestry practice provides good socio-economical and agro-ecological service for farmers which have a higher implication for climate change adaptation than non-tree based garden.}, }
@article {pmid24786084, year = {2014}, author = {Garcia, RA and Cabeza, M and Rahbek, C and Araújo, MB}, title = {Multiple dimensions of climate change and their implications for biodiversity.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {344}, number = {6183}, pages = {1247579}, doi = {10.1126/science.1247579}, pmid = {24786084}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Freezing ; Ice Cover ; Seasons ; Snow ; }, abstract = {The 21st century is projected to witness unprecedented climatic changes, with greater warming often reported for high latitudes. Yet, climate change can be measured in a variety of ways, reflecting distinct dimensions of change with unequal spatial patterns across the world. Polar climates are projected to not only warm, but also to shrink in area. By contrast, today's hot and arid climates are expected to expand worldwide and to reach climate states with no current analog. Although rarely appreciated in combination, these multiple dimensions of change convey complementary information. We review existing climate change metrics and discuss how they relate to threats and opportunities for biodiversity. Interpreting climate change metrics is particularly useful for unknown or poorly described species, which represent most of Earth's biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid24784818, year = {2014}, author = {Barrett, JR}, title = {Climate change mitigation: assessing strategies that offer potential human health benefits.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {122}, number = {5}, pages = {A139}, pmid = {24784818}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid24779050, year = {2014}, author = {Meachen, JA and O'Keefe, FR and Sadleir, RW}, title = {Evolution in the sabre-tooth cat, Smilodon fatalis, in response to Pleistocene climate change.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {714-723}, doi = {10.1111/jeb.12340}, pmid = {24779050}, issn = {1420-9101}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Felidae/*genetics ; *Fossils ; Mandible/anatomy &amp; histology ; Principal Component Analysis ; }, abstract = {The late Pleistocene was a time of environmental change, culminating in an extinction event. Few fossil localities record a temporal series of carnivore fossil populations from this interesting interval as well as Rancho La Brea (RLB). We analysed mandibles of Smilodon fatalis from RLB using 2-D geometric morphometrics to examine whether, and how, mandibular shape changes through time. Smilodon fatalis shows mandibular evolution with oscillations between a small, ancestral-type morph in pits 77 (≈37 Kybp) and 2051 (≈26 Kybp), a larger, more derived morph in pits 91 (≈28 Kybp) and 61-67 (≈13.6 Kybp), and an intermediate morph from pit 13 (≈17.7 Kybp). These oscillations end in pit 61-67, with greatest body size, and are estimated to have its widest gape and lowest bite force. Additionally, variation is lowest in pit 61-67, which was deposited concurrent with the Bølling–Allerød warming event, which may have important implications for the timing or conditions during the extinction event. Contra to a temporal Bergmann's rule, such rapid warming events appear to be correlated with larger, derived, morphologies whereas static, cooler, climates correlate with gracile, ancestral morphologies.}, }
@article {pmid24772388, year = {2013}, author = {Dhingra, R and Jimenez, V and Chang, HH and Gambhir, M and Fu, JS and Liu, Y and Remais, JV}, title = {Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.}, journal = {ISPRS international journal of geo-information}, volume = {2}, number = {3}, pages = {645-664}, pmid = {24772388}, issn = {2220-9964}, support = {K01 AI091864/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; U01 EH000405/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.}, }
@article {pmid24772293, year = {2014}, author = {Gilbert, L and Aungier, J and Tomkins, JL}, title = {Climate of origin affects tick (Ixodes ricinus) host-seeking behavior in response to temperature: implications for resilience to climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {7}, pages = {1186-1198}, pmid = {24772293}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate warming is changing distributions and phenologies of many organisms and may also impact on vectors of disease-causing pathogens. In Europe, the tick Ixodes ricinus is the primary vector of medically important pathogens (e.g., Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis). How might climate change affect I. ricinus host-seeking behavior (questing)? We hypothesize that, in order to maximize survival, I. ricinus have adapted their questing in response to temperature in accordance with local climates. We predicted that ticks from cooler climates quest at cooler temperatures than those from warmer climates. This would suggest that I. ricinus can adapt and therefore have the potential to be resilient to climate change. I. ricinus were collected from a cline of climates using a latitudinal gradient (northeast Scotland, North Wales, South England, and central France). Under laboratory conditions, ticks were subjected to temperature increases of 1°C per day, from 6 to 15°C. The proportion of ticks questing was recorded five times per temperature (i.e., per day). The theoretical potential to quest was then estimated for each population over the year for future climate change projections. As predicted, more ticks from cooler climates quested at lower temperatures than did ticks from warmer climates. The proportion of ticks questing was strongly associated with key climate parameters from each location. Our projections, based on temperature alone, suggested that populations could advance their activity season by a month under climate change, which has implications for exposure periods of hosts to tick-borne pathogens. Our findings suggest that I. ricinus have adapted their behavior in response to climate, implying some potential to adapt to climate change. Predictive models of I. ricinus dynamics and disease risk over continental scales would benefit from knowledge of these differences between populations.}, }
@article {pmid24771558, year = {2014}, author = {Coomes, DA and Flores, O and Holdaway, R and Jucker, T and Lines, ER and Vanderwel, MC}, title = {Wood production response to climate change will depend critically on forest composition and structure.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {12}, pages = {3632-3645}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12622}, pmid = {24771558}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/physiology ; *Biodiversity ; Biomass ; Carbon Sequestration/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Forecasting ; *Forests ; *Models, Biological ; New Zealand ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; Wood/*economics/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Established forests currently function as a major carbon sink, sequestering as woody biomass about 26% of global fossil fuel emissions. Whether forests continue to act as a global sink will depend on many factors, including the response of aboveground wood production (AWP; MgC ha(-1) yr(-1)) to climate change. Here, we explore how AWP in New Zealand's natural forests is likely to change. We start by statistically modelling the present-day growth of 97 199 individual trees within 1070 permanently marked inventory plots as a function of tree size, competitive neighbourhood and climate. We then use these growth models to identify the factors that most influence present-day AWP and to predict responses to medium-term climate change under different assumptions. We find that if the composition and structure of New Zealand's forests were to remain unchanged over the next 30 years, then AWP would increase by 6-23%, primarily as a result of physiological responses to warmer temperatures (with no appreciable effect of changing rainfall). However, if warmth-requiring trees were able to migrate into currently cooler areas and if denser canopies were able to form, then a different AWP response is likely: forests growing in the cool mountain environments would show a 30% increase in AWP, while those in the lowland would hardly respond (on average, -3% when mean annual temperature exceeds 8.0 °C). We conclude that response of wood production to anthropogenic climate change is not only dependent on the physiological responses of individual trees, but is highly contingent on whether forests adjust in composition and structure.}, }
@article {pmid24771544, year = {2014}, author = {Rosa, R and Lopes, AR and Pimentel, M and Faleiro, F and Baptista, M and Trübenbach, K and Narciso, L and Dionísio, G and Pegado, MR and Repolho, T and Calado, R and Diniz, M}, title = {Ocean cleaning stations under a changing climate: biological responses of tropical and temperate fish-cleaner shrimp to global warming.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {10}, pages = {3068-3079}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12621}, pmid = {24771544}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; Antioxidants/*metabolism ; Aquatic Organisms ; *Climate Change ; Crustacea/metabolism/*physiology ; Enzymes/*metabolism ; Heat-Shock Response ; *Hot Temperature ; Lipid Peroxidation ; Species Specificity ; *Stress, Physiological ; Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Cleaning symbioses play an important role in the health of certain coastal marine communities. These interspecific associations often occur at specific sites (cleaning stations) where a cleaner organism (commonly a fish or shrimp) removes ectoparasites/damaged tissue from a 'client' (a larger cooperating fish). At present, the potential impact of climate change on the fitness of cleaner organisms remains unknown. This study investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of tropical (Lysmata amboinensis) and temperate (L. seticaudata) cleaner shrimp to global warming. Specifically, thermal limits (CTMax), metabolic rates, thermal sensitivity, heat shock response (HSR), lipid peroxidation [malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration], lactate levels, antioxidant (GST, SOD and catalase) and digestive enzyme activities (trypsin and alkaline phosphatase) at current and warming (+3 °C) temperature conditions. In contrast to the temperate species, CTMax values decreased significantly from current (24-27 °C) to warming temperature conditions (30 °C) for the tropical shrimp, where metabolic thermal sensitivity was affected and the HSR was significantly reduced. MDA levels in tropical shrimp increased dramatically, indicating extreme cellular lipid peroxidation, which was not observed in the temperate shrimp. Lactate levels, GST and SOD activities were significantly enhanced within the muscle tissue of the tropical species. Digestive enzyme activities in the hepatopancreas of both species were significantly decreased by warmer temperatures. Our data suggest that the tropical cleaner shrimp will be more vulnerable to global warming than the temperate Lysmata seticaudata; the latter evolved in a relatively unstable environment with seasonal thermal variations that may have conferred greater adaptive plasticity. Thus, tropical cleaning symbioses may be challenged at a greater degree by warming-related anthropogenic forcing, with potential cascading effects on the health and structuring of tropical coastal communities (e.g. coral reefs).}, }
@article {pmid24769709, year = {2014}, author = {Sardella, BA and Kültz, D}, title = {The physiological responses of green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) to potential global climate change stressors.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {87}, number = {3}, pages = {456-463}, doi = {10.1086/675494}, pmid = {24769709}, issn = {1537-5293}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; California ; *Climate Change ; *Estuaries ; Fishes/*physiology ; Osmolar Concentration ; *Salinity ; Seasons ; Tidal Waves ; }, abstract = {The green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) is an anadromous species with a distinct population segment in the San Francisco Bay-Sacramento River Delta that is currently listed as threatened. Although this species is able to tolerate salinity challenges as soon as 6 mo posthatch, its ability to deal with unpredictable salinity fluctuations remains unknown. Global climate change is predicted to result in large freshwater (FW) flushes through the estuary during winter and greater tidal influence during the summer. We exposed green sturgeon acclimated to 15 (EST) or 24 (BAY) g/L salinity to a rapid FW influx, where salinity was reduced to 0 g/L in 3 h in order to simulate the effect of the "winter" scenario. Both groups survived, enduring a 10% plasma osmolality reduction after 3 h. BAY-acclimated sturgeon upregulated both Na(+), K(+)-ATPase (NKA) activity and caspase 3/7 activity, but no changes were observed in the EST-acclimated fish. In addition, we exposed FW-acclimated sturgeon to a dual 12-h salinity fluctuation cycle (0-24-0 g/L) in order to simulate the effect of greater tidal influence. At 6 h, the sturgeon showed a significant increase in plasma osmolality, and branchial NKA and caspase 3/7 activities were increased, indicating an acclimation response. There was no acclimation at 18 h, and plasma osmolality was higher than the peak observed at 6 h. The second fluctuation elicited an upregulation of the stress proteins ubiquitin and heat shock 70-kDa protein (HSP 70). Sturgeon can acclimate to changes in salinity; however, salinity fluctuations resulted in substantial cellular stress.}, }
@article {pmid24766735, year = {2014}, author = {Feria-Arroyo, TP and Castro-Arellano, I and Gordillo-Perez, G and Cavazos, AL and Vargas-Sandoval, M and Grover, A and Torres, J and Medina, RF and de León, AA and Esteve-Gassent, MD}, title = {Implications of climate change on the distribution of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis and risk for Lyme disease in the Texas-Mexico transboundary region.}, journal = {Parasites &amp; vectors}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {199}, pmid = {24766735}, issn = {1756-3305}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Arthropod Vectors/microbiology/*physiology ; Borrelia burgdorferi/isolation &amp; purification ; Climate Change ; DNA, Bacterial/isolation &amp; purification ; Ixodes/*physiology ; Lyme Disease/epidemiology/*transmission ; Mexico/epidemiology ; Phylogeny ; Risk Factors ; Texas/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Disease risk maps are important tools that help ascertain the likelihood of exposure to specific infectious agents. Understanding how climate change may affect the suitability of habitats for ticks will improve the accuracy of risk maps of tick-borne pathogen transmission in humans and domestic animal populations. Lyme disease (LD) is the most prevalent arthropod borne disease in the US and Europe. The bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi causes LD and it is transmitted to humans and other mammalian hosts through the bite of infected Ixodes ticks. LD risk maps in the transboundary region between the U.S. and Mexico are lacking. Moreover, none of the published studies that evaluated the effect of climate change in the spatial and temporal distribution of I. scapularis have focused on this region.<br><br>METHODS: The area of study included Texas and a portion of northeast Mexico. This area is referred herein as the Texas-Mexico transboundary region. Tick samples were obtained from various vertebrate hosts in the region under study. Ticks identified as I. scapularis were processed to obtain DNA and to determine if they were infected with B. burgdorferi using PCR. A maximum entropy approach (MAXENT) was used to forecast the present and future (2050) distribution of B. burgdorferi-infected I. scapularis in the Texas-Mexico transboundary region by correlating geographic data with climatic variables.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 1235 tick samples collected, 109 were identified as I. scapularis. Infection with B. burgdorferi was detected in 45% of the I. scapularis ticks collected. The model presented here indicates a wide distribution for I. scapularis, with higher probability of occurrence along the Gulf of Mexico coast. Results of the modeling approach applied predict that habitat suitable for the distribution of I. scapularis in the Texas-Mexico transboundary region will remain relatively stable until 2050.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The Texas-Mexico transboundary region appears to be part of a continuum in the pathogenic landscape of LD. Forecasting based on climate trends provides a tool to adapt strategies in the near future to mitigate the impact of LD related to its distribution and risk for transmission to human populations in the Mexico-US transboundary region.}, }
@article {pmid24765855, year = {2014}, author = {Wang, HF and Chen, XP and Cui, ZL and Meng, QF}, title = {[Impacts of climate change on summer maize production and adaptive selection of varieties in Xingtai County, Hebei, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {155-161}, pmid = {24765855}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Zea mays/classification/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture production and the underlying mechanism in North China Plain is important to take effective adaptations for national food security. Using Hybrid-Maize model, this paper investigated the impacts of climate change on summer maize yield potential and famers' adaptation by changing varieties with longer growth periods from 1981 to 2010 in Xingtai County, Hebei Province. Results showed a significant warming trend with the average temperature increasing by 0.49 degrees C x 10 a(-1) since the 1980s. Both solar radiation and sunshine hours decreased significantly since the 1980s. The sunshine hours decreased by 0.56 h x d(-1) x 10 a(-1) and the solar radiation decreased by 265.1 MJ x m(-2) x 10 a(-1), while the precipitation kept constant with large variation among years since 1981. Yield potentials of both irrigated and rainfed maize were simulated to decrease by 0.63-0.64 Mg x hm(-2) x 10 a(-1) since 1981 if varieties were assumed fixed with the 1980s. This was mainly due to the decrease of solar radiation during the maize growth season and the shortened growth stage by warming, and around 60% of grain yield decrease was attributed to the decreased solar radiation. In practice, by changing varieties with longer growth periods, the growing degree days of varieties adopted by local farmers since the 2000s increased by 19% (280 degrees C) compared to the 1980s, and consequently the yield potential was simulated to increase by 34%-40% (2.73-3.40 Mg x hm(-2)) for both irrigated and rainfed maize.}, }
@article {pmid24765567, year = {2014}, author = {Keshavmurthy, S and Meng, PJ and Wang, JT and Kuo, CY and Yang, SY and Hsu, CM and Gan, CH and Dai, CF and Chen, CA}, title = {Can resistant coral-Symbiodinium associations enable coral communities to survive climate change? A study of a site exposed to long-term hot water input.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {e327}, pmid = {24765567}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Climate change has led to a decline in the health of corals and coral reefs around the world. Studies have shown that, while some corals can cope with natural and anthropogenic stressors either through resistance mechanisms of coral hosts or through sustainable relationships with Symbiodinium clades or types, many coral species cannot. Here, we show that the corals present in a reef in southern Taiwan, and exposed to long-term elevated seawater temperatures due to the presence of a nuclear power plant outlet (NPP OL), are unique in terms of species and associated Symbiodinium types. At shallow depths (<3 m), eleven coral genera elsewhere in Kenting predominantly found with Symbiodinium types C1 and C3 (stress sensitive) were instead hosting Symbiodinium type D1a (stress tolerant) or a mixture of Symbiodinium type C1/C3/C21a/C15 and Symbiodinium type D1a. Of the 16 coral genera that dominate the local reefs, two that are apparently unable to associate with Symbiodinium type D1a are not present at NPP OL at depths of <3 m. Two other genera present at NPP OL and other locations host a specific type of Symbiodinium type C15. These data imply that coral assemblages may have the capacity to maintain their presence at the generic level against long-term disturbances such as elevated seawater temperatures by acclimatization through successful association with a stress-tolerant Symbiodinium over time. However, at the community level it comes at the cost of some coral genera being lost, suggesting that species unable to associate with a stress-tolerant Symbiodinium are likely to become extinct locally and unfavorable shifts in coral communities are likely to occur under the impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24764746, year = {2014}, author = {Chang, HH and Hao, H and Sarnat, SE}, title = {A Statistical Modeling Framework for Projecting Future Ambient Ozone and its Health Impact due to Climate Change.}, journal = {Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)}, volume = {89}, number = {}, pages = {290-297}, pmid = {24764746}, issn = {1352-2310}, support = {R21 ES023763/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {The adverse health effects of ambient ozone are well established. Given the high sensitivity of ambient ozone concentrations to meteorological conditions, the impacts of future climate change on ozone concentrations and its associated health effects are of concern. We describe a statistical modeling framework for projecting future ozone levels and its health impacts under a changing climate. This is motivated by the continual effort to evaluate projection uncertainties to inform public health risk assessment. The proposed approach was applied to the 20-county Atlanta metropolitan area using regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Future ozone levels and ozone-related excesses in asthma emergency department (ED) visits were examined for the period 2041-2070. The computationally efficient approach allowed us to consider 8 sets of climate model outputs based on different combinations of 4 RCMs and 4 general circulation models. Compared to the historical period of 1999-2004, we found consistent projections across climate models of an average 11.5% higher ozone levels (range: 4.8%, 16.2%), and an average 8.3% (range: -7% to 24%) higher number of ozone exceedance days. Assuming no change in the at-risk population, this corresponds to excess ozone-related ED visits ranging from 267 to 466 visits per year. Health impact projection uncertainty was driven predominantly by uncertainty in the health effect association and climate model variability. Calibrating climate simulations with historical observations reduced differences in projections across climate models.}, }
@article {pmid24763562, year = {2014}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate science. Climate outsider finds missing global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {344}, number = {6182}, pages = {348}, doi = {10.1126/science.344.6182.348}, pmid = {24763562}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid24763409, year = {2014}, author = {Ma, J and Hu, Y and Bu, R and Chang, Y and Deng, H and Qin, Q}, title = {Predicting impacts of climate change on the aboveground carbon sequestration rate of a temperate forest in northeastern China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e96157}, pmid = {24763409}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Carbon Sequestration ; China ; Climate Change/*economics ; *Forests ; Models, Biological ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species.}, }
@article {pmid24762535, year = {2014}, author = {Palumbi, SR and Barshis, DJ and Traylor-Knowles, N and Bay, RA}, title = {Mechanisms of reef coral resistance to future climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {344}, number = {6186}, pages = {895-898}, doi = {10.1126/science.1251336}, pmid = {24762535}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Acclimatization/genetics/*physiology ; Animals ; Anthozoa/genetics/metabolism/*physiology ; Chlorophyll/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Gene Expression Regulation ; *Heat-Shock Response ; Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Reef corals are highly sensitive to heat, yet populations resistant to climate change have recently been identified. To determine the mechanisms of temperature tolerance, we reciprocally transplanted corals between reef sites experiencing distinct temperature regimes and tested subsequent physiological and gene expression profiles. Local acclimatization and fixed effects, such as adaptation, contributed about equally to heat tolerance and are reflected in patterns of gene expression. In less than 2 years, acclimatization achieves the same heat tolerance that we would expect from strong natural selection over many generations for these long-lived organisms. Our results show both short-term acclimatory and longer-term adaptive acquisition of climate resistance. Adding these adaptive abilities to ecosystem models is likely to slow predictions of demise for coral reef ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid24759883, year = {2014}, author = {Williams, DG and Hultine, KR and Dettman, DL}, title = {Functional trade-offs in succulent stems predict responses to climate change in columnar cacti.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {65}, number = {13}, pages = {3405-3413}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/eru174}, pmid = {24759883}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Cactaceae/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Photosynthesis ; Plant Stems/*physiology ; *Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Columnar cacti occur naturally in many habitats and environments in the Americas but are conspicuously dominant in very dry desert regions. These majestic plants are widely regarded for their cultural, economic, and ecological value and, in many ecosystems, support highly diverse communities of pollinators, seed dispersers, and frugivores. Massive amounts of water and other resources stored in the succulent photosynthetic stems of these species confer a remarkable ability to grow and reproduce during intensely hot and dry periods. Yet many columnar cacti are potentially under severe threat from environmental global changes, including climate change and loss of habitat. Stems in columnar cacti and other cylindrical-stemmed cacti are morphologically diverse; stem volume-to-surface area ratio (V:S) across these taxa varies by almost two orders of magnitude. Intrinsic functional trade-offs are examined here across a broad range of V:S in species of columnar cacti. It is proposed that variation in photosynthetic gas exchange, growth, and response to stress is highly constrained by stem V:S, establishing a mechanistic framework for understanding the sensitivity of columnar cacti to climate change and drought. Specifically, species that develop stems with low V:S, and thus have little storage capacity, are expected to express high mass specific photosynthesis and growth rates under favourable conditions compared with species with high V:S. But the trade-off of having little storage capacity is that low V:S species are likely to be less tolerant of intense or long-duration drought compared with high V:S species. The application of stable isotope measurements of cactus spines as recorders of growth, water relations, and metabolic responses to the environment across species of columnar cacti that vary in V:S is also reviewed. Taken together, our approach provides a coherent theory and required set of observations needed for predicting the responses of columnar cacti to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24759617, year = {2014}, author = {Townroe, S and Callaghan, A}, title = {British container breeding mosquitoes: the impact of urbanisation and climate change on community composition and phenology.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e95325}, pmid = {24759617}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Aedes/physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Culex/physiology ; Culicidae/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; Insect Vectors/physiology ; Population Dynamics ; United Kingdom ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {The proliferation of artificial container habitats in urban areas has benefitted urban adaptable mosquito species globally. In areas where mosquitoes transmit viruses and parasites, it can promote vector population productivity and fuel mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. In Britain, storage of water in garden water butts is increasing, potentially expanding mosquito larval habitats and influencing population dynamics and mosquito-human contact. Here we show that the community composition, abundance and phenology of mosquitoes breeding in experimental water butt containers were influenced by urbanisation. Mosquitoes in urban containers were less species-rich but present in significantly higher densities (100.4±21.3) per container than those in rural containers (77.7±15.1). Urban containers were dominated by Culex pipiens (a potential vector of West Nile Virus [WNV]) and appear to be increasingly exploited by Anopheles plumbeus (a human-biting potential WNV and malaria vector). Culex phenology was influenced by urban land use type, with peaks in larval abundances occurring earlier in urban than rural containers. Among other factors, this was associated with an urban heat island effect which raised urban air and water temperatures by 0.9°C and 1.2°C respectively. Further increases in domestic water storage, particularly in urban areas, in combination with climate changes will likely alter mosquito population dynamics in the UK.}, }
@article {pmid24759396, year = {2014}, author = {Mascarelli, A}, title = {Climate-change adaptation: Designer reefs.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {508}, number = {7497}, pages = {444-446}, pmid = {24759396}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Acclimatization/genetics/*physiology ; Animals ; Anthozoa/genetics/*physiology ; Awards and Prizes ; *Coral Reefs ; *Directed Molecular Evolution ; *Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Samoa ; Seawater/chemistry ; Symbiosis/genetics ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid24756068, year = {2014}, author = {Danczak, A}, title = {Tackling climate change: SMART objectives for health workers.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {g2723}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g2723}, pmid = {24756068}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid24755937, year = {2014}, author = {Zank, C and Becker, FG and Abadie, M and Baldo, D and Maneyro, R and Borges-Martins, M}, title = {Climate change and the distribution of neotropical red-bellied toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): how to prioritize species and populations?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e94625}, pmid = {24755937}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Bufonidae/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis, and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri, and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term.}, }
@article {pmid24754840, year = {2014}, author = {Newell, RG and Raimi, D}, title = {Implications of shale gas development for climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {15}, pages = {8360-8368}, doi = {10.1021/es4046154}, pmid = {24754840}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; *Extraction and Processing Industry ; Methane ; *Natural Gas ; United States ; }, abstract = {Advances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad, natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy wide GHG emissions; whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures, it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals.}, }
@article {pmid24754615, year = {2014}, author = {Ford, JD and Willox, AC and Chatwood, S and Furgal, C and Harper, S and Mauro, I and Pearce, T}, title = {Adapting to the effects of climate change on Inuit health.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {104 Suppl 3}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {e9-17}, pmid = {24754615}, issn = {1541-0048}, support = {//Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canada ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Food Supply ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Inuit ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks-one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context.}, }
@article {pmid24752011, year = {2014}, author = {Hodd, RL and Bourke, D and Skeffington, MS}, title = {Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e95147}, pmid = {24752011}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; *Oceans and Seas ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival.}, }
@article {pmid24749531, year = {2014}, author = {Weintrobe, S}, title = {On: Covington C (2013). Thinking about climate change: a review essay on Engaging with climate change: psychoanalytic and interdisciplinary perspectives.}, journal = {The International journal of psycho-analysis}, volume = {95}, number = {2}, pages = {369-374}, doi = {10.1111/1745-8315.12185}, pmid = {24749531}, issn = {1745-8315}, mesh = {*Morals ; Psychoanalysis/*history ; }, }
@article {pmid24749524, year = {2014}, author = {Li, L and Xu, J and Hu, J and Han, J}, title = {Reducing nitrous oxide emissions to mitigate climate change and protect the ozone layer.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {9}, pages = {5290-5297}, doi = {10.1021/es404728s}, pmid = {24749524}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; China ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; *Ozone Depletion ; *Stratospheric Ozone ; }, abstract = {Reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions offers the combined benefits of mitigating climate change and protecting the ozone layer. This study estimates historical and future N2O emissions and explores the mitigation potential for China's chemical industry. The results show that (1) from 1990 to 2012, industrial N2O emissions in China grew by some 37-fold from 5.07 to 174 Gg (N2O), with total accumulated emissions of 1.26 Tg, and (2) from 2012 to 2020, the projected emissions are expected to continue growing rapidly from 174 to 561 Gg under current policies and assuming no additional mitigation measures. The total accumulated mitigation potential for this forecast period is about 1.54 Tg, the equivalent of reducing all the 2011 greenhouse gases from Australia or halocarbon ozone-depleting substances from China. Adipic acid production, the major industrial emission source, contributes nearly 80% of the industrial N2O emissions, and represents about 96.2% of the industrial mitigation potential. However, the mitigation will not happen without implementing effective policies and regulatory programs.}, }
@article {pmid24749223, year = {2014}, author = {Ratnapradipa, D}, title = {2012 NEHA/UL sabbatical report: vulnerability to potential impacts of climate change: adaptation and risk communication strategies for environmental health practitioners in the United Kingdom.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health}, volume = {76}, number = {8}, pages = {28-33}, pmid = {24749223}, issn = {0022-0892}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; *Health Communication ; Risk Assessment ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning have become increasingly important to environmental health practitioners (EHPs). The NEHA/UL Sabbatical Exchange Award allowed me to investigate how EHPs in the UK are incorporating climate change planning and communication strategies into their work. Projected climate change risks in the UK include flooding, extreme heat, water shortages, severe weather, decreased air quality, and changes in vectors. Despite public perception and funding challenges, all the local government representatives with whom I met incorporated climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning into their work. The mandated Community Risk Register serves as a key planning document developed by each local government authority and is a meaningful way to look at potential climate change health risks. Adaptation and sustainability were common threads in my meetings. These often took the form of "going green" with transportation, energy efficiency, conserving resources, and building design because the efforts made sense monetarily as future cost savings. Communication strategies targeted a variety of audiences (EHPs, non-EHP government employees, politicians, and the general public) using a broad range of communication channels (professional training, lobbying, conferences and fairs, publications, print materials, Internet resources, social media, billboards, etc).}, }
@article {pmid24748331, year = {2014}, author = {Peng, J and Dan, L and Huang, M}, title = {Sensitivity of global and regional terrestrial carbon storage to the direct CO2 effect and climate change based on the CMIP5 model intercomparison.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e95282}, pmid = {24748331}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04 PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics.}, }
@article {pmid24747938, year = {2014}, author = {Jungqvist, G and Oni, SK and Teutschbein, C and Futter, MN}, title = {Effect of climate change on soil temperature in Swedish boreal forests.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e93957}, pmid = {24747938}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Forests ; Models, Statistical ; *Soil ; Sweden ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Complex non-linear relationships exist between air and soil temperature responses to climate change. Despite its influence on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, soil temperature has received less attention in climate impact studies. Here we present and apply an empirical soil temperature model to four forest sites along a climatic gradient of Sweden. Future air and soil temperature were projected using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual average air and soil temperatures were projected to increase, but complex dynamics were projected on a seasonal scale. Future changes in winter soil temperature were strongly dependent on projected snow cover. At the northernmost site, winter soil temperatures changed very little due to insulating effects of snow cover but southern sites with little or no snow cover showed the largest projected winter soil warming. Projected soil warming was greatest in the spring (up to 4°C) in the north, suggesting earlier snowmelt, extension of growing season length and possible northward shifts in the boreal biome. This showed that the projected effects of climate change on soil temperature in snow dominated regions are complex and general assumptions of future soil temperature responses to climate change based on air temperature alone are inadequate and should be avoided in boreal regions.}, }
@article {pmid24747537, year = {2014}, author = {Jung, AV and Le Cann, P and Roig, B and Thomas, O and Baurès, E and Thomas, MF}, title = {Microbial contamination detection in water resources: interest of current optical methods, trends and needs in the context of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {4292-4310}, pmid = {24747537}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Optical Phenomena ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Pollution/analysis ; }, abstract = {Microbial pollution in aquatic environments is one of the crucial issues with regard to the sanitary state of water bodies used for drinking water supply, recreational activities and harvesting seafood due to a potential contamination by pathogenic bacteria, protozoa or viruses. To address this risk, microbial contamination monitoring is usually assessed by turbidity measurements performed at drinking water plants. Some recent studies have shown significant correlations of microbial contamination with the risk of endemic gastroenteresis. However the relevance of turbidimetry may be limited since the presence of colloids in water creates interferences with the nephelometric response. Thus there is a need for a more relevant, simple and fast indicator for microbial contamination detection in water, especially in the perspective of climate change with the increase of heavy rainfall events. This review focuses on the one hand on sources, fate and behavior of microorganisms in water and factors influencing pathogens' presence, transportation and mobilization, and on the second hand, on the existing optical methods used for monitoring microbiological risks. Finally, this paper proposes new ways of research.}, }
@article {pmid24742334, year = {2014}, author = {Chen, D and Huang, H and Hu, M and Dahlgren, RA}, title = {Influence of lag effect, soil release, and climate change on watershed anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and riverine export dynamics.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {10}, pages = {5683-5690}, doi = {10.1021/es500127t}, pmid = {24742334}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Regression Analysis ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Soil/*chemistry ; Time Factors ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {This study demonstrates the importance of the nitrogen-leaching lag effect, soil nitrogen release, and climate change on anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) and riverine total nitrogen (TN) export dynamics using a 30-yr record for the Yongan River watershed in eastern China. Cross-correlation analysis indicated a 7-yr, 5-yr, and 4-yr lag time in riverine TN export in response to changes in NANI, temperature, and drained agricultural land area, respectively. Enhanced by warmer temperature and improved agricultural drainage, the upper 20 cm of agricultural soils released 270 kg N ha(-1) between 1980 and 2009. Climate change also increased the fractional export of NANI to river. An empirical model (R(2) = 0.96) for annual riverine TN flux incorporating these influencing factors estimated 35%, 41%, and 24% of riverine TN flux originated from the soil N pool, NANI, and background N sources, respectively. The model forecasted an increase of 45%, 25%, and 6% and a decrease of 13% in riverine TN flux from 2010 to 2030 under continued development, climate change, status-quo, and tackling scenarios, respectively. The lag effect, soil N release, and climate change delay riverine TN export reductions with respect to decreases in NANI and should be considered in developing and evaluating N management measures.}, }
@article {pmid24740618, year = {2014}, author = {Baró, F and Chaparro, L and Gómez-Baggethun, E and Langemeyer, J and Nowak, DJ and Terradas, J}, title = {Contribution of ecosystem services to air quality and climate change mitigation policies: the case of urban forests in Barcelona, Spain.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {466-479}, pmid = {24740618}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; *Ecosystem ; *Forestry ; Spain ; Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {Mounting research highlights the contribution of ecosystem services provided by urban forests to quality of life in cities, yet these services are rarely explicitly considered in environmental policy targets. We quantify regulating services provided by urban forests and evaluate their contribution to comply with policy targets of air quality and climate change mitigation in the municipality of Barcelona, Spain. We apply the i-Tree Eco model to quantify in biophysical and monetary terms the ecosystem services "air purification," "global climate regulation," and the ecosystem disservice "air pollution" associated with biogenic emissions. Our results show that the contribution of urban forests regulating services to abate pollution is substantial in absolute terms, yet modest when compared to overall city levels of air pollution and GHG emissions. We conclude that in order to be effective, green infrastructure-based efforts to offset urban pollution at the municipal level have to be coordinated with territorial policies at broader spatial scales.}, }
@article {pmid24737595, year = {2014}, author = {Isaac-Renton, MG and Roberts, DR and Hamann, A and Spiecker, H}, title = {Douglas-fir plantations in Europe: a retrospective test of assisted migration to address climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {2607-2617}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12604}, pmid = {24737595}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Forestry ; *Models, Theoretical ; North America ; Pseudotsuga/*growth &amp; development ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, abstract = {We evaluate genetic test plantations of North American Douglas-fir provenances in Europe to quantify how tree populations respond when subjected to climate regime shifts, and we examined whether bioclimate envelope models developed for North America to guide assisted migration under climate change can retrospectively predict the success of these provenance transfers to Europe. The meta-analysis is based on long-term growth data of 2800 provenances transferred to 120 European test sites. The model was generally well suited to predict the best performing provenances along north-south gradients in Western Europe, but failed to predict superior performance of coastal North American populations under continental climate conditions in Eastern Europe. However, model projections appear appropriate when considering additional information regarding adaptation of Douglas-fir provenances to withstand frost and drought, even though the model partially fails in a validation against growth traits alone. We conclude by applying the partially validated model to climate change scenarios for Europe, demonstrating that climate trends observed over the last three decades warrant changes to current use of Douglas-fir provenances in plantation forestry throughout Western and Central Europe.}, }
@article {pmid24734050, year = {2014}, author = {Kakkad, K and Barzaga, ML and Wallenstein, S and Azhar, GS and Sheffield, PE}, title = {Neonates in Ahmedabad, India, during the 2010 heat wave: a climate change adaptation study.}, journal = {Journal of environmental and public health}, volume = {2014}, number = {}, pages = {946875}, pmid = {24734050}, issn = {1687-9813}, support = {P30 ES023515/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Air Conditioning ; Climate Change ; Female ; Heat Stress Disorders/etiology/*mortality ; *Hospitalization ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; Infant, Newborn ; *Intensive Care Units, Neonatal/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Male ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Health effects from climate change are an international concern with urban areas at particular risk due to urban heat island effects. The burden of disease on vulnerable populations in non-climate-controlled settings has not been well studied. This study compared neonatal morbidity in a non-air-conditioned hospital during the 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad to morbidity in the prior and subsequent years. The outcome of interest was neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions for heat. During the months of April, May, and June of 2010, 24 NICU admissions were for heat versus 8 and 4 in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Both the effect of moving the maternity ward and the effect of high temperatures were statistically significant, controlling for each other. Above 42 degrees Celsius, each daily maximum temperature increase of a degree was associated with 43% increase in heat-related admissions (95% CI 9.2-88%). Lower floor location of the maternity ward within hospital which occurred after the 2010 heat wave showed a protective effect. These findings demonstrate the importance of simple surveillance measures in motivating a hospital policy change for climate change adaptation-here relocating one ward-and the potential increasing health burden of heat in non-climate-controlled institutions on vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid24729541, year = {2014}, author = {O'Gorman, EJ and Benstead, JP and Cross, WF and Friberg, N and Hood, JM and Johnson, PW and Sigurdsson, BD and Woodward, G}, title = {Climate change and geothermal ecosystems: natural laboratories, sentinel systems, and future refugia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {11}, pages = {3291-3299}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12602}, pmid = {24729541}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; *Hot Springs ; }, abstract = {Understanding and predicting how global warming affects the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems is a key challenge of the 21st century. Isolated laboratory and field experiments testing global change hypotheses have been criticized for being too small-scale and overly simplistic, whereas surveys are inferential and often confound temperature with other drivers. Research that utilizes natural thermal gradients offers a more promising approach and geothermal ecosystems in particular, which span a range of temperatures within a single biogeographic area, allow us to take the laboratory into nature rather than vice versa. By isolating temperature from other drivers, its ecological effects can be quantified without any loss of realism, and transient and equilibrial responses can be measured in the same system across scales that are not feasible using other empirical methods. Embedding manipulative experiments within geothermal gradients is an especially powerful approach, informing us to what extent small-scale experiments can predict the future behaviour of real ecosystems. Geothermal areas also act as sentinel systems by tracking responses of ecological networks to warming and helping to maintain ecosystem functioning in a changing landscape by providing sources of organisms that are preadapted to different climatic conditions. Here, we highlight the emerging use of geothermal systems in climate change research, identify novel research avenues, and assess their roles for catalysing our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid24724186, year = {2014}, author = {Revesz, RL and Howard, PH and Arrow, K and Goulder, LH and Kopp, RE and Livermore, MA and Oppenheimer, M and Sterner, T}, title = {Global warming: Improve economic models of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {508}, number = {7495}, pages = {173-175}, doi = {10.1038/508173a}, pmid = {24724186}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Calibration ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/economics ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Policy/*economics/trends ; Food Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Warming/*economics/prevention &amp; control ; *Models, Economic ; Risk Assessment ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid24722848, year = {2014}, author = {Rannow, S and Macgregor, NA and Albrecht, J and Crick, HQ and Förster, M and Heiland, S and Janauer, G and Morecroft, MD and Neubert, M and Sarbu, A and Sienkiewicz, J}, title = {Managing protected areas under climate change: challenges and priorities.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {732-743}, pmid = {24722848}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Decision Making ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Policy ; Research ; }, abstract = {The implementation of adaptation actions in local conservation management is a new and complex task with multiple facets, influenced by factors differing from site to site. A transdisciplinary perspective is therefore required to identify and implement effective solutions. To address this, the International Conference on Managing Protected Areas under Climate Change brought together international scientists, conservation managers, and decision-makers to discuss current experiences with local adaptation of conservation management. This paper summarizes the main issues for implementing adaptation that emerged from the conference. These include a series of conclusions and recommendations on monitoring, sensitivity assessment, current and future management practices, and legal and policy aspects. A range of spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the implementation of climate-adapted management. The adaptation process must be area-specific and consider the ecosystem and the social and economic conditions within and beyond protected area boundaries. However, a strategic overview is also needed: management at each site should be informed by conservation priorities and likely impacts of climate change at regional or even wider scales. Acting across these levels will be a long and continuous process, requiring coordination with actors outside the "traditional" conservation sector. To achieve this, a range of research, communication, and policy/legal actions is required. We identify a series of important actions that need to be taken at different scales to enable managers of protected sites to adapt successfully to a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid24722689, year = {2014}, author = {Wang, G and Li, T and Zhang, W and Yu, Y}, title = {Impacts of agricultural management and climate change on future soil organic carbon dynamics in North China Plain.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e94827}, pmid = {24722689}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Carbon/*analysis ; China ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Environment ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fertilizers ; Manure ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Dynamics of cropland soil organic carbon (SOC) in response to different management practices and environmental conditions across North China Plain (NCP) were studied using a modeling approach. We identified the key variables driving SOC changes at a high spatial resolution (10 km × 10 km) and long time scale (90 years). The model used future climatic data from the FGOALS model based on four future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration scenarios. Agricultural practices included different rates of nitrogen (N) fertilization, manure application, and stubble retention. We found that SOC change was significantly influenced by the management practices of stubble retention (linearly positive), manure application (linearly positive) and nitrogen fertilization (nonlinearly positive) - and the edaphic variable of initial SOC content (linearly negative). Temperature had weakly positive effects, while precipitation had negligible impacts on SOC dynamics under current irrigation management. The effects of increased N fertilization on SOC changes were most significant between the rates of 0 and 300 kg ha-1 yr-1. With a moderate rate of manure application (i.e., 2000 kg ha-1 yr-1), stubble retention (i.e., 50%), and an optimal rate of nitrogen fertilization (i.e., 300 kg ha-1 yr-1), more than 60% of the study area showed an increase in SOC, and the average SOC density across NCP was relatively steady during the study period. If the rates of manure application and stubble retention doubled (i.e., manure application rate of 4000 kg ha-1 yr-1 and stubble retention rate of 100%), soils across more than 90% of the study area would act as a net C sink, and the average SOC density kept increasing from 40 Mg ha-1 during 2010s to the current worldwide average of ∼ 55 Mg ha-1 during 2060s. The results can help target agricultural management practices for effectively mitigating climate change through soil C sequestration.}, }
@article {pmid24720862, year = {2015}, author = {Williams, CM and Henry, HA and Sinclair, BJ}, title = {Cold truths: how winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {90}, number = {1}, pages = {214-235}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12105}, pmid = {24720862}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; Energy Metabolism ; *Seasons ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Winter is a key driver of individual performance, community composition, and ecological interactions in terrestrial habitats. Although climate change research tends to focus on performance in the growing season, climate change is also modifying winter conditions rapidly. Changes to winter temperatures, the variability of winter conditions, and winter snow cover can interact to induce cold injury, alter energy and water balance, advance or retard phenology, and modify community interactions. Species vary in their susceptibility to these winter drivers, hampering efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. Existing frameworks for predicting the impacts of climate change do not incorporate the complexity of organismal responses to winter. Here, we synthesise organismal responses to winter climate change, and use this synthesis to build a framework to predict exposure and sensitivity to negative impacts. This framework can be used to estimate the vulnerability of species to winter climate change. We describe the importance of relationships between winter conditions and performance during the growing season in determining fitness, and demonstrate how summer and winter processes are linked. Incorporating winter into current models will require concerted effort from theoreticians and empiricists, and the expansion of current growing-season studies to incorporate winter.}, }
@article {pmid24718765, year = {2014}, author = {Narins, PM and Meenderink, SW}, title = {Climate change and frog calls: long-term correlations along a tropical altitudinal gradient.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {281}, number = {1783}, pages = {20140401}, pmid = {24718765}, issn = {1471-2954}, support = {R01 DC000222/DC/NIDCD NIH HHS/United States ; R01DC00222/DC/NIDCD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Anura/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Puerto Rico ; Seasons ; *Tropical Climate ; *Vocalization, Animal ; }, abstract = {Temperature affects nearly all biological processes, including acoustic signal production and reception. Here, we report on advertisement calls of the Puerto Rican coqui frog (Eleutherodactylus coqui) that were recorded along an altitudinal gradient and compared these with similar recordings along the same altitudinal gradient obtained 23 years earlier. We found that over this period, at any given elevation, calls exhibited both significant increases in pitch and shortening of their duration. All of the observed differences are consistent with a shift to higher elevations for the population, a well-known strategy for adapting to a rise in ambient temperature. Using independent temperature data over the same time period, we confirm a significant increase in temperature, the magnitude of which closely predicts the observed changes in the frogs' calls. Physiological responses to long-term temperature rises include reduction in individual body size and concomitantly, population biomass. These can have potentially dire consequences, as coqui frogs form an integral component of the food web in the Puerto Rican rainforest.}, }
@article {pmid24718388, year = {2014}, author = {Pearce, W and Holmberg, K and Hellsten, I and Nerlich, B}, title = {Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e94785}, pmid = {24718388}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Information Dissemination ; *Internet ; *Research Report ; *Residence Characteristics ; }, abstract = {In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.}, }
@article {pmid24718387, year = {2014}, author = {Holm, SR and Svenning, JC}, title = {180,000 years of climate change in Europe: avifaunal responses and vegetation implications.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e94021}, pmid = {24718387}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Climate Change/*history/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Forests ; Fossils/*history ; History, Ancient ; Models, Theoretical ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Providing an underutilized source of information for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, birds are rarely used to infer paleoenvironments despite their well-known ecology and extensive Quaternary fossil record. Here, we use the avian fossil record to investigate how Western Palearctic bird assemblages and species ranges have changed across the latter part of the Pleistocene, with focus on the links to climate and the implications for vegetation structure. As a key issue we address the full-glacial presence of trees in Europe north of the Mediterranean region, a widely debated issue with evidence for and against emerging from several research fields and data sources. We compiled and analyzed a database of bird fossil occurrences from archaeological sites throughout the Western Palearctic and spanning the Saalian-Eemian-Weichselian stages, i.e. 190,000-10,000 years BP. In general, cold and dry-adapted species dominated these late Middle Pleistocene and Late Pleistocene fossil assemblages, with clear shifts of northern species southwards during glacials, as well as northwards and westwards shifts of open-vegetation species from the south and east, respectively and downwards shifts of alpine species. A direct link to climate was clear in Northwestern Europe. However, in general, bird assemblages more strongly reflected vegetation changes, underscoring their usefulness for inferring the vegetation structure of past landscapes. Forest-adapted birds were found in continuous high proportions throughout the study period, providing support for the presence of trees north of the Alps, even during full-glacial stages. Furthermore, the results suggest forest-dominated but partially open Eemian landscapes in the Western Palearctic, including the Northwestern European subregion.}, }
@article {pmid24715387, year = {2014}, author = {Nguyen, AL and Dang, VH and Bosma, RH and Verreth, JA and Leemans, R and De Silva, SS}, title = {Simulated impacts of climate change on current farming locations of striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus; Sauvage) in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {43}, number = {8}, pages = {1059-1068}, pmid = {24715387}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aquaculture ; *Catfishes ; *Climate Change ; Salinity ; Vietnam ; }, abstract = {In Vietnam, culturing striped catfish makes an important contribution to the Mekong Delta's economy. Water level rise during rainy season and salt intrusion during dry season affect the water exchange and quality for this culture. Sea level rise as a consequence of climate change will worsen these influences. In this study, water level rise and salt water intrusion for three sea level rise (SLR) scenarios (i.e., +30, +50, and +75 cm) were simulated. The results showed that at SLR +50, the 3-m-flood level would spread downstream and threaten farms located in AnGiang, DongThap and CanTho provinces. Rising salinity levels for SLR +75 would reduce the window appropriate for the culture in SocTrang and BenTre provinces, and in TienGiang's coastal districts. Next to increasing dikes to reduce the impacts, the most tenable and least disruptive option to the farming community would be to shift to a salinity tolerant strain of catfish.}, }
@article {pmid24706891, year = {2014}, author = {Bernardo, J}, title = {Biologically grounded predictions of species resistance and resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {15}, pages = {5450-5451}, pmid = {24706891}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Amphibians/*physiology ; Animals ; Behavior, Animal/*physiology ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Insecta/*physiology ; Reptiles/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid24706833, year = {2014}, author = {Ponti, L and Gutierrez, AP and Ruti, PM and Dell'Aquila, A}, title = {Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {15}, pages = {5598-5603}, pmid = {24706833}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends ; Crops, Agricultural/*economics/physiology ; Geography ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Mediterranean Region ; Models, Biological ; Models, Economic ; Olea/*parasitology/*physiology ; Tephritidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests.}, }
@article {pmid24706809, year = {2014}, author = {Springer, AM and van Vliet, GB}, title = {Climate change, pink salmon, and the nexus between bottom-up and top-down forcing in the subarctic Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {18}, pages = {E1880-8}, pmid = {24706809}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Alaska ; Animals ; Birds/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Food Chain ; Male ; Oceans and Seas ; Pacific Ocean ; *Salmon/growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change in the last century was associated with spectacular growth of many wild Pacific salmon stocks in the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea, apparently through bottom-up forcing linking meteorology to ocean physics, water temperature, and plankton production. One species in particular, pink salmon, became so numerous by the 1990s that they began to dominate other species of salmon for prey resources and to exert top-down control in the open ocean ecosystem. Information from long-term monitoring of seabirds in the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea reveals that the sphere of influence of pink salmon is much larger than previously known. Seabirds, pink salmon, other species of salmon, and by extension other higher-order predators, are tightly linked ecologically and must be included in international management and conservation policies for sustaining all species that compete for common, finite resource pools. These data further emphasize that the unique 2-y cycle in abundance of pink salmon drives interannual shifts between two alternate states of a complex marine ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid24705894, year = {2014}, author = {Shah, K and Sharma, PK and Nandi, I and Singh, N}, title = {Water sustainability: reforming water management in new global era of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {21}, number = {19}, pages = {11603-11604}, doi = {10.1007/s11356-014-2812-0}, pmid = {24705894}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fresh Water ; Humans ; *Water Resources ; }, abstract = {The National Seminar on Sustainable Water Resource Management in Era of Changing Climate (NSWRM-2014) on 10-11 January 2014 organised by the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development and Environmental Science and Technology, Banaras Hindu University, witnessed the presence of experts from environmentalists, industrialists and experts on water resources and its management. The deliberations and scientific discussions led to the conclusion that it is not just the resource but the natural capacity to sustain it that requires monitoring, understanding and stewardship. The focus of governance in India needs to move at a faster pace from conventional methods of sector-based water management to more integrated approach for sustainable water resource management. It is more of the people participation that is the future key towards sustainable water resource management in India.}, }
@article {pmid24703554, year = {2014}, author = {Woodward, A and Smith, KR and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Chadee, DD and Honda, Y and Liu, Q and Olwoch, J and Revich, B and Sauerborn, R and Chafe, Z and Confalonieri, U and Haines, A}, title = {Climate change and health: on the latest IPCC report.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {383}, number = {9924}, pages = {1185-1189}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60576-6}, pmid = {24703554}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International ; }, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Delivery of Health Care/organization &amp; administration/trends ; Environmental Health/trends ; Environmental Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; *Health Status ; Healthy People Programs/organization &amp; administration/trends ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Public Health/trends ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, }
@article {pmid24702168, year = {2014}, author = {Jubb, AM and Gierczak, T and Baasandorj, M and Waterland, RL and Burkholder, JB}, title = {Methyl-perfluoroheptene-ethers (CH3OC7F13): measured OH radical reaction rate coefficients for several isomers and enantiomers and their atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {9}, pages = {4954-4962}, doi = {10.1021/es500888v}, pmid = {24702168}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*chemistry ; Atmosphere ; Chromatography, Gas ; Ethers/chemistry ; Fluorocarbons/*chemistry ; *Global Warming ; Hydroxyl Radical/*chemistry ; Isomerism ; Kinetics ; Methyl Ethers/*chemistry ; Spectroscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared ; }, abstract = {Mixtures of methyl-perfluoroheptene-ethers (CH3OC7F13, MPHEs) are currently in use as replacements for perfluorinated alkanes (PFCs) and poly-ether heat transfer fluids, which are persistent greenhouse gases with lifetimes >1000 years. At present, the atmospheric processing and environmental impact from the use of MPHEs is unknown. In this work, rate coefficients at 296 K for the gas-phase reaction of the OH radical with six key isomers (including stereoisomers and enantiomers) of MPHEs used commercially were measured using a relative rate method. Rate coefficients for the six MPHE isomers ranged from ∼ 0.1 to 2.9 × 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) with a strong stereoisomer and -OCH3 group position dependence; the (E)-stereoisomers with the -OCH3 group in an α- position relative to the double bond had the greatest reactivity. Rate coefficients measured for the d3-MPHE isomer analogues showed decreased reactivity consistent with a minor contribution of H atom abstraction from the -OCH3 group to the overall reactivity. Estimated atmospheric lifetimes for the MPHE isomers range from days to months. Atmospheric lifetimes, radiative efficiencies, and global warming potentials for these short-lived MPHE isomers were estimated based on the measured OH rate coefficients along with measured and theoretically calculated MPHE infrared absorption spectra. Our results highlight the importance of quantifying the atmospheric impact of individual components in an isomeric mixture.}, }
@article {pmid24701192, year = {2014}, author = {Sun, W and Wang, J and Li, Z and Yao, X and Yu, J}, title = {Influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {2014}, number = {}, pages = {908349}, pmid = {24701192}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Geography ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Water Resources ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for A1B emission scenario (medium CO2 emission) in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period of a year it shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient to fulfill irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer.}, }
@article {pmid24700793, year = {2014}, author = {Roulin, A}, title = {Melanin-based colour polymorphism responding to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {11}, pages = {3344-3350}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12594}, pmid = {24700793}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; Climate Change ; Color ; *Global Warming ; Melanins/*metabolism ; *Pigmentation ; *Polymorphism, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Climate warming leads to a decrease in biodiversity. Organisms can deal with the new prevailing environmental conditions by one of two main routes, namely evolving new genetic adaptations or through phenotypic plasticity to modify behaviour and physiology. Melanin-based colouration has important functions in animals including a role in camouflage and thermoregulation, protection against UV-radiation and pathogens and, furthermore, genes involved in melanogenesis can pleiotropically regulate behaviour and physiology. In this article, I review the current evidence that differently coloured individuals are differentially sensitive to climate change. Predicting which of dark or pale colour variants (or morphs) will be more penalized by climate change will depend on the adaptive function of melanism in each species as well as how the degree of colouration covaries with behaviour and physiology. For instance, because climate change leads to a rise in temperature and UV-radiation and dark colouration plays a role in UV-protection, dark individuals may be less affected from global warming, if this phenomenon implies more solar radiation particularly in habitats of pale individuals. In contrast, as desertification increases, pale colouration may expand in those regions, whereas dark colourations may expand in regions where humidity is predicted to increase. Dark colouration may be also indirectly selected by climate warming because genes involved in the production of melanin pigments confer resistance to a number of stressful factors including those associated with climate warming. Furthermore, darker melanic individuals are commonly more aggressive than paler conspecifics, and hence they may better cope with competitive interactions due to invading species that expand their range in northern latitudes and at higher altitudes. To conclude, melanin may be a major component involved in adaptation to climate warming, and hence in animal populations melanin-based colouration is likely to change as an evolutionary or plastic response to climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid24699401, year = {2014}, author = {Oniscu, GC}, title = {Global warming in transplantation.}, journal = {Transplantation}, volume = {97}, number = {12}, pages = {1207-1208}, doi = {10.1097/TP.0000000000000077}, pmid = {24699401}, issn = {1534-6080}, mesh = {Anticoagulants/*administration &amp; dosage ; *Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation ; Heparin/*administration &amp; dosage ; Humans ; Organ Preservation/*methods ; Perfusion/*methods ; Tissue Donors/*supply &amp; distribution ; Tissue and Organ Harvesting/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid24696173, year = {2014}, author = {Chivian, E}, title = {Why doctors and their organisations must help tackle climate change: an essay by Eric Chivian.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {g2407}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g2407}, pmid = {24696173}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; *Societies, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid24695031, year = {2014}, author = {Hussain, M and Mumtaz, S}, title = {Climate change and managing water crisis: Pakistan's perspective.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {29}, number = {1-2}, pages = {71-77}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2014-0020}, pmid = {24695031}, issn = {0048-7554}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Geography ; Health Status ; Pakistan ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global phenomenon manifested mainly through global warming. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported its negative consequences on natural resources, anthropogenic activities, and natural disasters. The El Nino and La Nina have affected hydrologic regimes and ecosystems. It has been observed that the average temperature in 1995 was 0.4°C higher than that in 1895. By the end of the 21st century, 10% of the area of Bangladesh is likely to be submerged by the sea. Most of the islands of Pacific Ocean will disappear. A major part of Maldives will be submerged. The sea level is expected to rise by 30-150 cm. Extreme events such as floods, cyclones, tsunamis, and droughts have become regular phenomena in many parts of the world. Other adverse impacts are proliferation of water-borne diseases, sea water intrusion, salinization of coastal areas, loss of biodiversity, eco-degradation of watersheds and global glacial decline, and haphazard snow melts/thaws. In turn, these factors have serious effect on water resources. Pakistan is confronting similar climate change. Meteorological data reveal that winter temperatures are rising and summers are getting cooler. Temperature is expected to increase by 0.9°C and 1.5°C by years 2020 and 2050, respectively. Water resources in Pakistan are affected by climate change as it impacts the behavior of glaciers, rainfall patterns, greenhouse gas emissions, recurrence of extreme events such as floods and droughts. Severe floods have occurred in the years 1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Pakistan has faced the worst-ever droughts during the period from 1998 to 2004. Pakistan has surface water potential of 140 million acre feet (MAF) and underground water reserve of 56 MAF. It is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. The per capita annual availability of water has reduced from 5140 m3 in 1950 to 1000 m3 now. It is fast approaching towards water scarcity. To minimize adverse impacts of climate change on the water crisis in Pakistan, the preparation of integrated national, provincial, and local level master plans encompassing technical, social, environmental, administrative, and financial considerations is necessary. It is imperative to implement two simultaneous approaches of adaptation (living with climate change) and mitigation (addressing negativities of climate change). Salient features are integrated management of watersheds/catchments/water bodies, optimum exploitation of present sources, development of new sources, water conservation, adequate drainage, efficient design of water storage, conveyance, distribution and supply systems, utilization of waste water, and regulation of water quality.}, }
@article {pmid24692630, year = {2014}, author = {Woodward, A}, title = {Heat, cold and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and community health}, volume = {68}, number = {7}, pages = {595-596}, doi = {10.1136/jech-2014-204040}, pmid = {24692630}, issn = {1470-2738}, mesh = {Climate Change/*mortality ; *Forecasting ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid24692268, year = {2014}, author = {Godber, OF and Wall, R}, title = {Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {10}, pages = {3092-3102}, pmid = {24692268}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Agriculture/*trends ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Livestock ; Models, Theoretical ; *Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in low-income areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one-third of global human protein consumption. Here, a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes, which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock-based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self-sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform.}, }
@article {pmid24691002, year = {2014}, author = {Limb, M}, title = {Failing to act on climate change will "cause great suffering," doctors warn.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {g2512}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g2512}, pmid = {24691002}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid24687916, year = {2014}, author = {Sparks, AH and Forbes, GA and Hijmans, RJ and Garrett, KA}, title = {Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {12}, pages = {3621-3631}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12587}, pmid = {24687916}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Forecasting/*methods ; Geographic Mapping ; Geography ; Humidity ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Phytophthora infestans ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; *Solanum tuberosum ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Weather affects the severity of many plant diseases, and climate change is likely to alter the patterns of crop disease severity. Evaluating possible future patterns can help focus crop breeding and disease management research. We examined the global effect of climate change on potato late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine and still is a common potato disease around the world. We used a metamodel and considered three global climate models for the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for three 20-year time-slices: 2000-2019, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099. In addition to global analyses, five regions were evaluated where potato is an important crop: the Andean Highlands, Indo-Gangetic Plain and Himalayan Highlands, Southeast Asian Highlands, Ethiopian Highlands, and Lake Kivu Highlands in Sub-Saharan Africa. We found that the average global risk of potato late blight increases initially, when compared with historic climate data, and then declines as planting dates shift to cooler seasons. Risk in the agro-ecosystems analyzed, varied from a large increase in risk in the Lake Kivu Highlands in Rwanda to decreases in the Southeast Asian Highlands of Indonesia.}, }
@article {pmid24675554, year = {2014}, author = {Studer, A and Poulin, R}, title = {Analysis of trait mean and variability versus temperature in trematode cercariae: is there scope for adaptation to global warming?.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {403-413}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijpara.2014.02.006}, pmid = {24675554}, issn = {1879-0135}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biostatistics ; Cercaria/*physiology/*radiation effects ; Genetic Variation ; *Global Warming ; Phenotype ; Snails/parasitology ; Survival Analysis ; Temperature ; Trematoda/*physiology/*radiation effects ; }, abstract = {The potential of species for evolutionary adaptation in the context of global climate change has recently come under scrutiny. Estimates of phenotypic variation in biological traits may prove valuable for identifying species, or groups of species, with greater or lower potential for evolutionary adaptation, as this variation, when heritable, represents the basis for natural selection. Assuming that measures of trait variability reflect the evolutionary potential of these traits, we conducted an analysis across trematode species to determine the potential of these parasites as a group to adapt to increasing temperatures. Firstly, we assessed how the mean number of infective stages (cercariae) emerging from infected snail hosts as well as the survival and infectivity of cercariae are related to temperature. Secondly and importantly in the context of evolutionary potential, we assessed how coefficients of variation for these traits are related to temperature, in both cases controlling for other factors such as habitat, acclimatisation, latitude and type of target host. With increasing temperature, an optimum curve was found for mean output and mean infectivity, and a linear decrease for survival of cercariae. For coefficients of variation, temperature was only an important predictor in the case of cercarial output, where results indicated that there is, however, no evidence for limited trait variation at the higher temperature range. No directional trend was found for either variation of survival or infectivity. These results, characterising general patterns among trematodes, suggest that all three traits considered may have potential to change through adaptive evolution.}, }
@article {pmid24672926, year = {2014}, author = {Lowe, AM}, title = {[Global warming and Northern populations].}, journal = {Perspective infirmiere : revue officielle de l'Ordre des infirmieres et infirmiers du Quebec}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {57-59}, pmid = {24672926}, issn = {1708-1890}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Arctic Regions ; Child ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Climate ; Demography ; Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; *Inuit ; Northwest Territories ; Nunavut ; }, }
@article {pmid24671988, year = {2014}, author = {Limb, M}, title = {People in coastal regions of Asia are likely to be worst hit by climate change, report says.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {g2395}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g2395}, pmid = {24671988}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate Change ; Disasters ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid24671985, year = {2014}, author = {McCoy, D and Montgomery, H and Arulkumaran, S and Godlee, F}, title = {Climate change and human survival.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {g2351}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g2351}, pmid = {24671985}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change/mortality ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid24670422, year = {2014}, author = {Sahlean, TC and Gherghel, I and Papeş, M and Strugariu, A and Zamfirescu, &#x15e;R}, title = {Refining climate change projections for organisms with low dispersal abilities: a case study of the Caspian whip snake.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {e91994}, pmid = {24670422}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Snakes/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate warming is one of the most important threats to biodiversity. Ectothermic organisms such as amphibians and reptiles are especially vulnerable as climatic conditions affect them directly. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are increasingly popular in ecological studies, but several drawbacks exist, including the limited ability to account for the dispersal potential of the species. In this study, we use ENMs to explore the impact of global climate change on the Caspian whip snake (Dolichophis caspius) as model for organisms with low dispersal abilities and to quantify dispersal to novel areas using GIS techniques. Models generated using Maxent 3.3.3 k and GARP for current distribution were projected on future climatic scenarios. A cost-distance analysis was run in ArcGIS 10 using geomorphological features, ecological conditions, and human footprint as "costs" to dispersal of the species to obtain a Maximum Dispersal Range (MDR) estimate. All models developed were statistically significant (P<0.05) and recovered the currently known distribution of D. caspius. Models projected on future climatic conditions using Maxent predicted a doubling of suitable climatic area, while GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. Both models agreed on an expansion of suitable area northwards, with minor decreases at the southern distribution limit. The MDR area calculated using the Maxent model represented a third of the total area of the projected model. The MDR based on GARP models recovered only about 20% of the total area of the projected model. Thus, incorporating measures of species' dispersal abilities greatly reduced estimated area of potential future distributions.}, }
@article {pmid24669859, year = {2014}, author = {Naish, S and Dale, P and Mackenzie, JS and McBride, J and Mengersen, K and Tong, S}, title = {Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches.}, journal = {BMC infectious diseases}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {167}, pmid = {24669859}, issn = {1471-2334}, mesh = {Aedes/virology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/virology ; *Models, Biological ; *Models, Statistical ; Risk ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission.<br><br>METHODS: A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24668802, year = {2014}, author = {Thornton, PK and Ericksen, PJ and Herrero, M and Challinor, AJ}, title = {Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {11}, pages = {3313-3328}, pmid = {24668802}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid24665998, year = {2015}, author = {Wyatt, CJ and O'Donnell, FC and Springer, AE}, title = {Semi-arid aquifer responses to forest restoration treatments and climate change.}, journal = {Ground water}, volume = {53}, number = {2}, pages = {207-216}, doi = {10.1111/gwat.12184}, pmid = {24665998}, issn = {1745-6584}, mesh = {Arizona ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forecasting ; *Forests ; *Groundwater ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Trees ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The purpose of this study was to develop an interpretive groundwater-flow model to assess the impacts that planned forest restoration treatments and anticipated climate change will have on large regional, deep (>400 m), semi-arid aquifers. Simulations were conducted to examine how tree basal area reductions impact groundwater recharge from historic conditions to 2099. Novel spatial analyses were conducted to determine areas and rates of potential increases in groundwater recharge. Changes in recharge were applied to the model by identifying zones of basal area reduction from planned forest restoration treatments and applying recharge-change factors to these zones. Over a 10-year period of forest restoration treatment, a 2.8% increase in recharge to one adjacent groundwater basin (the Verde Valley sub-basin) was estimated, compared to conditions that existed from 2000 to 2005. However, this increase in recharge was assumed to quickly decline after treatment due to regrowth of vegetation and forest underbrush and their associated increased evapotranspiration. Furthermore, simulated increases in groundwater recharge were masked by decreases in water levels, stream baseflow, and groundwater storage resulting from surface water diversions and groundwater pumping. These results indicate that there is an imbalance between water supply and demand in this regional, semi-arid aquifer. Current water management practices may not be sustainable into the far future and comprehensive action should be taken to minimize this water budget imbalance.}, }
@article {pmid24665344, year = {2014}, author = {Janssens, L and Dinh Van, K and Debecker, S and Bervoets, L and Stoks, R}, title = {Local adaptation and the potential effects of a contaminant on predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming: a space-for-time substitution approach.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {421-430}, pmid = {24665344}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {The ability to deal with temperature-induced changes in interactions with contaminants and predators under global warming is one of the outstanding, applied evolutionary questions. For this, it is crucial to understand how contaminants will affect activity levels, predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming and to what extent gradual thermal evolution may mitigate these effects. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we assessed the potential for gradual thermal evolution shaping activity (mobility and foraging), predator avoidance and antipredator responses when Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae were exposed to zinc in a common-garden warming experiment at the mean summer water temperatures of shallow water bodies at southern and northern latitudes (24 and 20°C, respectively). Zinc reduced mobility and foraging, predator avoidance and escape swimming speed. Importantly, high-latitude populations showed stronger zinc-induced reductions in escape swimming speed at both temperatures, and in activity levels at the high temperature. The latter indicates that local thermal adaptation may strongly change the ecological impact of contaminants under global warming. Our study underscores the critical importance of considering local adaptation along natural gradients when integrating biotic interactions in ecological risk assessment, and the potential of gradual thermal evolution mitigating the effects of warming on the vulnerability to contaminants.}, }
@article {pmid24664864, year = {2014}, author = {Caruso, NM and Sears, MW and Adams, DC and Lips, KR}, title = {Widespread rapid reductions in body size of adult salamanders in response to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {1751-1759}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12550}, pmid = {24664864}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Appalachian Region ; Behavior, Animal ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Energy Metabolism ; Female ; Geography ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Urodela/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Reduction in body size is a major response to climate change, yet evidence in globally imperiled amphibians is lacking. Shifts in average population body size could indicate either plasticity in the growth response to changing climates through changes in allocation and energetics, or through selection for decreased size where energy is limiting. We compared historic and contemporary size measurements in 15 Plethodon species from 102 populations (9450 individuals) and found that six species exhibited significant reductions in body size over 55 years. Biophysical models, accounting for actual changes in moisture and air temperature over that period, showed a 7.1-7.9% increase in metabolic expenditure at three latitudes but showed no change in annual duration of activity. Reduced size was greatest at southern latitudes in regions experiencing the greatest drying and warming. Our results are consistent with a plastic response of body size to climate change through reductions in body size as mediated through increased metabolism. These rapid reductions in body size over the past few decades have significance for the susceptibility of amphibians to environmental change, and relevance for whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change in the future.}, }
@article {pmid24659604, year = {2014}, author = {Isaksen, TB and Yost, M and Hom, E and Fenske, R}, title = {Projected health impacts of heat events in Washington State associated with climate change.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {29}, number = {1-2}, pages = {119-123}, doi = {10.1515/reveh-2014-0029}, pmid = {24659604}, issn = {0048-7554}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Factors ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Health Status ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Infant ; Middle Aged ; *Models, Theoretical ; Washington ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and duration of extreme-heat events and associated health outcomes. This study used data from the historical heat-health outcome relationship, and a unique prediction model, to estimate mortality for 2025 and 2045. For each one degree change in humidex above threshold, we find a corresponding 1.83% increase in mortality for all ages, all non-traumatic causes of death in King County, Washington. Mortality is projected to increase significantly in 2025 and 2045 for the 85 and older age group (2.3-8.0 and 4.0-22.3 times higher than baseline, respectively).}, }
@article {pmid24656403, year = {2014}, author = {Coppola, E and Verdecchia, M and Giorgi, F and Colaiuda, V and Tomassetti, B and Lombardi, A}, title = {Changing hydrological conditions in the Po basin under global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {493}, number = {}, pages = {1183-1196}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.03.003}, pmid = {24656403}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Po River is a crucial resource for the Italian economy, since 40% of the gross domestic product comes from this area. It is thus crucial to quantify the impact of climate change on this water resource in order to plan for future water use. In this paper a mini ensemble of 8 hydrological simulations is completed from 1960 to 2050 under the A1B emission scenario, by using the output of two regional climate models as input (REMO and RegCM) at two different resolutions (25 km-10 km and 25 km-3 km). The river discharge at the outlet point of the basin shows a change in the spring peak of the annual cycle, with a one month shift from May to April. This shift is entirely due to the change in snowmelt timing which drives most of the discharge during this period. Two other important changes are an increase of discharge in the wintertime and a decrease in the fall from September to November. The uncertainty associated with the winter change is larger compared to that in the fall. The spring shift and the fall decrease of discharge imply an extension of the hydrological dry season and thus an increase in water stress over the basin. The spatial distributions of the discharge changes are in agreement with what is observed at the outlet point and the uncertainty associated with these changes is proportional to the amplitude of the signal. The analysis of the changes in the anomaly distribution of discharge shows that both the increases and decreases in seasonal discharge are tied to the changes in the tails of the distribution, i.e. to the increase or decrease of extreme events.}, }
@article {pmid24651777, year = {2014}, author = {Rosania, K}, title = {Animal studies reveal tangible effects of climate change.}, journal = {Lab animal}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {113-114}, doi = {10.1038/laban.509}, pmid = {24651777}, issn = {1548-4475}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Invertebrates/*physiology ; Motor Activity ; North America ; Reproduction ; Vertebrates/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid24650908, year = {2014}, author = {Harr, B and Price, T}, title = {Climate change: a hybrid zone moves north.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {R230-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2014.02.023}, pmid = {24650908}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; *Songbirds ; }, abstract = {A shifting zone of hybridization between two chickadee species helps us understand the proximate mechanisms driving species responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24647625, year = {2014}, author = {Macgregor, NA and van Dijk, N}, title = {Adaptation in practice: how managers of nature conservation areas in eastern england are responding to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {700-719}, pmid = {24647625}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; England ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Although good general principles for climate change adaptation in conservation have been developed, it is proving a challenge to translate them into more detailed recommendations for action. To improve our understanding of what adaptation might involve in practice, we investigated how the managers of conservation areas in eastern England are considering climate change. We used a written questionnaire and semi-structured interviews to collect information from managers of a range of different conservation areas. Topics investigated include the impacts of climate change perceived to be of the greatest importance; adaptation goals being set; management actions being carried out to achieve these goals; sources of information used; and perceived barriers to taking action. We identified major themes and issues that were apparent across the sites studied. Specifically, we found ways in which adaptation had been informed by past experience; different strategies relating to whether to accept or resist change; approaches for coping with more variable conditions; ways of taking a large-scale approach and managing sites as networks; some practical examples of aspects of adaptive management; and examples of the role that other sectors can play in both constraining and increasing a conservation area's capacity to adapt. We discuss the relevance of these findings to the growing discussion in conservation about identifying adaptation pathways for different conservation areas and a potential progression from a focus on resilience and incremental change to embracing "transformation." Though adaptation will be place-specific, we believe these findings provide useful lessons for future action in both England and other countries.}, }
@article {pmid24643718, year = {2014}, author = {Carrillo, Y and Dijkstra, FA and LeCain, D and Morgan, JA and Blumenthal, D and Waldron, S and Pendall, E}, title = {Disentangling root responses to climate change in a semiarid grassland.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {175}, number = {2}, pages = {699-711}, pmid = {24643718}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Nitrogen ; Plant Roots/*growth &amp; development ; Poaceae/*physiology ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Future ecosystem properties of grasslands will be driven largely by belowground biomass responses to climate change, which are challenging to understand due to experimental and technical constraints. We used a multi-faceted approach to explore single and combined impacts of elevated CO2 and warming on root carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in a temperate, semiarid, native grassland at the Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment experiment. To investigate the indirect, moisture mediated effects of elevated CO2, we included an irrigation treatment. We assessed root standing mass, morphology, residence time and seasonal appearance/disappearance of community-aggregated roots, as well as mass and N losses during decomposition of two dominant grass species (a C3 and a C4). In contrast to what is common in mesic grasslands, greater root standing mass under elevated CO2 resulted from increased production, unmatched by disappearance. Elevated CO2 plus warming produced roots that were longer, thinner and had greater surface area, which, together with greater standing biomass, could potentially alter root function and dynamics. Decomposition increased under environmental conditions generated by elevated CO2, but not those generated by warming, likely due to soil desiccation with warming. Elevated CO2, particularly under warming, slowed N release from C4-but not C3-roots, and consequently could indirectly affect N availability through treatment effects on species composition. Elevated CO2 and warming effects on root morphology and decomposition could offset increased C inputs from greater root biomass, thereby limiting future net C accrual in this semiarid grassland.}, }
@article {pmid24634279, year = {2014}, author = {Millon, A and Petty, SJ and Little, B and Gimenez, O and Cornulier, T and Lambin, X}, title = {Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {1770-1781}, pmid = {24634279}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Arvicolinae/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; England ; Female ; *Food Chain ; Male ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Strigiformes/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole-eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.}, }
@article {pmid24631622, year = {2014}, author = {Laratte, B and Guillaume, B and Kim, J and Birregah, B}, title = {Modeling cumulative effects in life cycle assessment: the case of fertilizer in wheat production contributing to the global warming potential.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {481}, number = {}, pages = {588-595}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.02.020}, pmid = {24631622}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Fertilizers/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Chemical ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {This paper aims at presenting a dynamic indicator for life cycle assessment (LCA) measuring cumulative impacts over time of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fertilizers used for wheat cultivation and production. Our approach offers a dynamic indicator of global warming potential (GWP), one of the most used indicator of environmental impacts (e.g. in the Kyoto Protocol). For a case study, the wheat production in France was selected and considered by using data from official sources about fertilizer consumption and production of wheat. We propose to assess GWP environmental impact based on LCA method. The system boundary is limited to the fertilizer production for 1 ton of wheat produced (functional unit) from 1910 to 2010. As applied to wheat production in France, traditional LCA shows a maximum GWP impact of 500 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production, whereas the GWP impact of wheat production over time with our approach to dynamic LCA and its cumulative effects increases to 18,000 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production. In this paper, only one substance and one impact assessment indicator are presented. However, the methodology can be generalized and improved by using different substances and indicators.}, }
@article {pmid24630951, year = {2014}, author = {Stoffel, M and Tiranti, D and Huggel, C}, title = {Climate change impacts on mass movements--case studies from the European Alps.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {493}, number = {}, pages = {1255-1266}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.02.102}, pmid = {24630951}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This paper addresses the current knowledge on climate change impacts on mass movement activity in mountain environments by illustrating characteristic cases of debris flows, rock slope failures and landslides from the French, Italian, and Swiss Alps. It is expected that events are likely to occur less frequently during summer, whereas the anticipated increase of rainfall in spring and fall could likely alter debris-flow activity during the shoulder seasons (March, April, November, and December). The magnitude of debris flows could become larger due to larger amounts of sediment delivered to the channels and as a result of the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events. At the same time, however, debris-flow volumes in high-mountain areas will depend chiefly on the stability and/or movement rates of permafrost bodies, and destabilized rock glaciers could lead to debris flows without historic precedents in the future. The frequency of rock slope failures is likely to increase, as excessively warm air temperatures, glacier shrinkage, as well as permafrost warming and thawing will affect and reduce rock slope stability in the direction that adversely affects rock slope stability. Changes in landslide activity in the French and Western Italian Alps will likely depend on differences in elevation. Above 1500 m asl, the projected decrease in snow season duration in future winters and springs will likely affect the frequency, number and seasonality of landslide reactivations. In Piemonte, for instance, 21st century landslides have been demonstrated to occur more frequently in early spring and to be triggered by moderate rainfalls, but also to occur in smaller numbers. On the contrary, and in line with recent observations, events in autumn, characterized by a large spatial density of landslide occurrences might become more scarce in the Piemonte region.}, }
@article {pmid24627295, year = {2014}, author = {Ogden, NH and Radojevic, M and Wu, X and Duvvuri, VR and Leighton, PA and Wu, J}, title = {Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {122}, number = {6}, pages = {631-638}, pmid = {24627295}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/*growth &amp; development/virology ; Canada/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Ixodes/*growth &amp; development/virology ; Lyme Disease/epidemiology/transmission ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (R0) of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, and explored their importance for Lyme disease risk, and for vector-borne diseases in general.<br><br>METHODS: We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an I. scapularis population model to hindcast recent, and project future, effects of climate warming on R0. Modeled R0 increases were compared with R0 ranges for pathogens and parasites associated with variations in key ecological and epidemiological factors (obtained by literature review) to assess their epidemiological importance.<br><br>RESULTS: R0 for I. scapularis in North America increased during the years 1971-2010 in spatio-temporal patterns consistent with observations. Increased temperatures due to projected climate change increased R0 by factors (2-5 times in Canada and 1.5-2 times in the United States), comparable to observed ranges of R0 for pathogens and parasites due to variations in strains, geographic locations, epidemics, host and vector densities, and control efforts.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects.}, }
@article {pmid24626917, year = {2014}, author = {Held, I}, title = {Climate change. Simplicity amid complexity.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {343}, number = {6176}, pages = {1206-1207}, doi = {10.1126/science.1248447}, pmid = {24626917}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Aerosols ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Humans ; Methane ; Models, Statistical ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid24623389, year = {2014}, author = {Kimberly, DA and Salice, CJ}, title = {Complex interactions between climate change and toxicants: evidence that temperature variability increases sensitivity to cadmium.}, journal = {Ecotoxicology (London, England)}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {809-817}, pmid = {24623389}, issn = {1573-3017}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Cadmium/*toxicity ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Snails ; }, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that global climate change will have significant impacts on environmental conditions including potential effects on sensitivity of organisms to environmental contaminants. The objective of this study was to test the climate-induced toxicant sensitivity (CITS) hypothesis in which acclimation to altered climate parameters increases toxicant sensitivity. Adult Physa pomilia snails were acclimated to a near optimal 22 °C or a high-normal 28 °C for 28 days. After 28 days, snails from each temperature group were challenged with either low (150 μg/L) or high (300 μg/L) cadmium at each temperature (28 or 22 °C). In contrast to the CITS hypothesis, we found that acclimation temperature did not have a strong influence on cadmium sensitivity except at the high cadmium test concentration where snails acclimated to 28 °C were more cadmium tolerant. However, snails that experienced a switch in temperature for the cadmium challenge, regardless of the switch direction, were the most sensitive to cadmium. Within the snails that were switched between temperatures, snails acclimated at 28 °C and then exposed to high cadmium at 22 °C exhibited significantly greater mortality than those snails acclimated to 22 °C and then exposed to cadmium at 28 °C. Our results point to the importance of temperature variability in increasing toxicant sensitivity but also suggest a potentially complex cost of temperature acclimation. Broadly, the type of temporal stressor exposures we simulated may reduce overall plasticity in responses to stress ultimately rendering populations more vulnerable to adverse effects.}, }
@article {pmid24622192, year = {2014}, author = {Wang, YF and Zhang, YR}, title = {Climate change: China must publicize its emissions reports.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {507}, number = {7491}, pages = {169}, doi = {10.1038/507169a}, pmid = {24622192}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid24618677, year = {2014}, author = {Ali, MP and Huang, D and Nachman, G and Ahmed, N and Begum, MA and Rabbi, MF}, title = {Will climate change affect outbreak patterns of planthoppers in Bangladesh?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {e91678}, pmid = {24618677}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; *Hemiptera ; Models, Statistical ; Population Density ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Recently, planthoppers outbreaks have intensified across Asia resulting in heavy rice yield losses. The problem has been widely reported as being induced by insecticides while other factors such as global warming that could be potential drivers have been neglected. Here, we speculate that global warming may increase outbreak risk of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål.). We present data that demonstrate the relationship between climate variables (air temperature and precipitation) and the abundance of brown planthopper (BPH) during 1998-2007. Data show that BPH has become significantly more abundant in April over the 10-year period, but our data do not indicate that this is due to a change in climate, as no significant time trends in temperature and precipitation could be demonstrated. The abundance of BPH varied considerably between months within a year which is attributed to seasonal factors, including the availability of suitable host plants. On the other hand, the variation within months is attributed to fluctuations in monthly temperature and precipitation among years. The effects of these weather variables on BPH abundance were analyzed statistically by a general linear model. The statistical model shows that the expected effect of increasing temperatures is ambiguous and interacts with the amount of rainfall. According to the model, months or areas characterized by a climate that is either cold and dry or hot and wet are likely to experience higher levels of BPH due to climate change, whereas other combinations of temperature and rainfall may reduce the abundance of BPH. The analysis indicates that global warming may have contributed to the recent outbreaks of BPH in some rice growing areas of Asia, and that the severity of such outbreaks is likely to increase if climate change exaggerates. Our study highlights the need to consider climate change when designing strategies to manage planthoppers outbreaks.}, }
@article {pmid24618280, year = {2014}, author = {Gingold, DB and Strickland, MJ and Hess, JJ}, title = {Ciguatera fish poisoning and climate change: analysis of National Poison Center Data in the United States, 2001-2011.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {122}, number = {6}, pages = {580-586}, pmid = {24618280}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {K01 ES019877/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; K01ES019877/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Caribbean Region ; Ciguatera Poisoning/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Incidence ; Seawater/microbiology ; Temperature ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are positively related to incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP). Increased severe storm frequency may create more habitat for ciguatoxic organisms. Although climate change could expand the endemic range of CFP, the relationship between CFP incidence and specific environmental conditions is unknown.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We estimated associations between monthly CFP incidence in the contiguous United States and SST and storm frequency in the Caribbean basin.<br><br>METHODS: We obtained information on 1,102 CFP-related calls to U.S. poison control centers during 2001-2011 from the National Poison Data System. We performed a time-series analysis using Poisson regression to relate monthly CFP call incidence to SST and tropical storms. We investigated associations across a range of plausible lag structures.<br><br>RESULTS: Results showed associations between monthly CFP calls and both warmer SSTs and increased tropical storm frequency. The SST variable with the strongest association linked current monthly CFP calls to the peak August SST of the previous year. The lag period with the strongest association for storms was 18 months. If climate change increases SST in the Caribbean 2.5-3.5 &#xb0;C over the coming century as projected, this model implies that CFP incidence in the United States is likely to increase 200-400%.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Using CFP calls as a marker of CFP incidence, these results clarify associations between climate variability and CFP incidence and suggest that, all other things equal, climate change could increase the burden of CFP. These findings have implications for disease prediction, surveillance, and public health preparedness for climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24615959, year = {2014}, author = {Bond, AL and Lavers, JL}, title = {Climate change alters the trophic niche of a declining apex marine predator.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {7}, pages = {2100-2107}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12554}, pmid = {24615959}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Carbon Isotopes/analysis ; *Climate Change ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Feathers/chemistry ; *Feeding Behavior ; *Food Chain ; Nitrogen Isotopes/analysis ; Seasons ; South Australia ; Time Factors ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {Changes in the world's oceans have altered nutrient flow, and affected the viability of predator populations when prey species become unavailable. These changes are integrated into the tissues of apex predators over space and time and can be quantified using stable isotopes in the inert feathers of historical and contemporary avian specimens. We measured δ(13) C and δ(15) N values in Flesh-footed Shearwaters (Puffinus carneipes) from Western and South Australia from 1936-2011. The Flesh-footed Shearwaters more than doubled their trophic niche (from 3.91 ± 1.37 ‰(2) to 10.00 ± 1.79 ‰(2)), and dropped an entire trophic level in 75 years (predicted δ(15) N decreased from +16.9 ‰ to + 13.5 ‰, and δ(13) C from -16.9 ‰ to -17.9 ‰) - the largest change in δ(15) N yet reported in any marine bird, suggesting a relatively rapid shift in the composition of the Indian Ocean food web, or changes in baseline δ(13) C and δ(15) N values. A stronger El Niño-Southern Oscillation results in a weaker Leeuwin Current in Western Australia, and decreased Flesh-footed Shearwater δ(13) C and δ(15) N. Current climate forecasts predict this trend to continue, leading to increased oceanic 'tropicalization' and potentially competition between Flesh-footed Shearwaters and more tropical sympatric species with expanding ranges. Flesh-footed Shearwater populations are declining, and current conservation measures aimed primarily at bycatch mitigation are not restoring populations. Widespread shifts in foraging, as shown here, may explain some of the reported decline. An improved understanding and ability to mitigate the impacts of global climactic changes is therefore critical to the long-term sustainability of this declining species.}, }
@article {pmid24615638, year = {2014}, author = {Manici, LM and Bregaglio, S and Fumagalli, D and Donatelli, M}, title = {Modelling soil borne fungal pathogens of arable crops under climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {58}, number = {10}, pages = {2071-2083}, pmid = {24615638}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Europe ; Fungi/*growth &amp; development ; *Models, Theoretical ; Soil/chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; Water/analysis ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Soil-borne fungal plant pathogens, agents of crown and root rot, are seldom considered in studies on climate change and agriculture due both to the complexity of the soil system and to the incomplete knowledge of their response to environmental drivers. A controlled chamber set of experiments was carried out to quantify the response of six soil-borne fungi to temperature, and a species-generic model to simulate their response was developed. The model was linked to a soil temperature model inclusive of components able to simulate soil water content also as resulting from crop water uptake. Pathogen relative growth was simulated over Europe using the IPCC A1B emission scenario derived from the Hadley-CM3 global climate model. Climate scenarios of soil temperature in 2020 and 2030 were compared to the baseline centred in the year 2000. The general trend of the response of soil-borne pathogens shows increasing growth in the coldest areas of Europe; however, a larger rate of increase is shown from 2020 to 2030 compared to that of 2000 to 2020. Projections of pathogens of winter cereals indicate a marked increase of growth rate in the soils of northern European and Baltic states. Fungal pathogens of spring sowing crops show unchanged conditions for their growth in soils of the Mediterranean countries, whereas an increase of suitable conditions was estimated for the areals of central Europe which represent the coldest limit areas where the host crops are currently grown. Differences across fungal species are shown, indicating that crop-specific analyses should be ran.}, }
@article {pmid24613645, year = {2014}, author = {Pacheco, JM and Vasconcelos, VV and Santos, FC}, title = {Climate change governance, cooperation and self-organization.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {573-586}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2014.02.003}, pmid = {24613645}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Decision Making ; Game Theory ; Global Warming ; Government ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Models, Statistical ; Risk ; }, abstract = {When attempting to avoid global warming, individuals often face a social dilemma in which, besides securing future benefits, it is also necessary to reduce the chances of future losses. In this manuscript, we introduce a simple approach to address this type of dilemmas, in which the risk of failure plays a central role in individual decisions. This model can be shown to capture some of the essential features discovered in recent key experiments, while allowing one to extend in non-trivial ways the experimental conditions to regions of more practical interest. Our results suggest that global coordination for a common good should be attempted by segmenting tasks in many small to medium sized groups, in which perception of risk is high and uncertainty in collective goals is minimized. Moreover, our results support the conclusion that sanctioning institutions may further enhance the chances of coordinating to tame the planet's climate, as long as they are implemented in a decentralized and polycentric manner.}, }
@article {pmid24613288, year = {2014}, author = {Morley, NJ and Lewis, JW}, title = {Temperature stress and parasitism of endothermic hosts under climate change.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {221-227}, doi = {10.1016/j.pt.2014.01.007}, pmid = {24613288}, issn = {1471-5007}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Endocrine System/physiology ; Host-Parasite Interactions/*physiology ; Immune System/physiology ; Parasitic Diseases/immunology/transmission ; *Stress, Physiological ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to global environmental stability and is predicted to cause more frequent extreme weather events with higher levels of heat and cold stress. The physiological effects of such events on parasitic infections within endotherms are poorly studied and rarely considered in the context of climate change where an emphasis on ectothermic components of parasite life cycles (free-living stages and invertebrate hosts or vectors) predominates. However, thermal stress can affect parasite establishment, growth, fecundity, and development within endothermic hosts and may thus potentially influence transmission potential. Such changes can be caused by temperature effects on host physiological homeostasis, predominantly endocrine and immune systems, and may have wide implications for parasite epidemiology under extreme climatic events.}, }
@article {pmid24612684, year = {2014}, author = {Yu, W and Dale, P and Turner, L and Tong, S}, title = {Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus: methodological challenges and research needs.}, journal = {Epidemiology and infection}, volume = {142}, number = {10}, pages = {2013-2023}, pmid = {24612684}, issn = {1469-4409}, mesh = {Alphavirus Infections/epidemiology/*transmission ; Animals ; Australia/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Culicidae ; Disease Vectors ; Ecology ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; *Research Design ; *Ross River virus ; }, abstract = {Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.}, }
@article {pmid24609925, year = {2014}, author = {Limb, M}, title = {Explain impact of climate change in simple terms, says UN official.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {g2007}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g2007}, pmid = {24609925}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Communication ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid24605700, year = {2013}, author = {Tirado, MC and Crahay, P and Mahy, L and Zanev, C and Neira, M and Msangi, S and Brown, R and Scaramella, C and Costa Coitinho, D and Müller, A}, title = {Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.}, journal = {Food and nutrition bulletin}, volume = {34}, number = {4}, pages = {533-547}, doi = {10.1177/156482651303400415}, pmid = {24605700}, issn = {0379-5721}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods/trends ; Child Welfare ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Diet ; Female ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Hunger ; Infant ; *Malnutrition/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Maternal Welfare ; Nutrition Policy ; Nutritional Physiological Phenomena ; Nutritive Value ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation.<br><br>RESULTS: Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and policies and actions formulated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Improved multi-sectoral coordination and political will is required to integrate nutrition-sensitive actions into climate-resilient sustainable development efforts in the UNFCCC work and in the post 2015 development agenda. Placing human rights at the center of strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change and international solidarity is essential to advance sustainable development and to create a climate for nutrition security.}, }
@article {pmid24601775, year = {2014}, author = {Xu, ZL and Zhang, D}, title = {Dramatic declines in Euphausia pacifica abundance in the East China Sea: response to recent regional climate change.}, journal = {Zoological science}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {135-142}, doi = {10.2108/zsj.31.135}, pmid = {24601775}, issn = {0289-0003}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Euphausiacea/*physiology ; *Oceans and Seas ; Population Density ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {As with other marine ecosystems around the world, water temperature has been anomalously warm in recent years in the East China Sea. We analyzed historical data to explore the effects of climatic change on the abundance and distribution variation of Euphausia pacifica in the East China Sea (the Changjiang River estuary and adjacent areas). In 1959, the highest abundance occurred in the spring and autumn, and this krill species was still abundant in May 1974; however, its abundance was significantly reduced in 2002, markedly in spring. Euphausia pacifica was the numerically dominant euphausiid in the East China Sea in 1959. Its mean abundance was up to 1.91 ind m(-3) and 1.64 ind/m(3) in 1959 and 1974, respectively; however, this figure decreased to 0.36 ind m(-3) in 2002. Since 2003, the abundances have been near zero in the most years. Both inter-annual (between November 1959 and 2002) and inter-monthly (between May and June 1959) comparisons suggest that E. pacifica has had a temperature-driven northward movement in response to rising sea surface temperature, especially the positive anomalies since 1997. However, E. pacifica did not come back to the previous habitat when temperature became relative cold. Hence additional factors affecting the E. pacifica distribution and abundance need to be investigated in the future study.}, }
@article {pmid24599716, year = {2014}, author = {Viscarra Rossel, RA and Webster, R and Bui, EN and Baldock, JA}, title = {Baseline map of organic carbon in Australian soil to support national carbon accounting and monitoring under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {9}, pages = {2953-2970}, pmid = {24599716}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Australia ; Carbon/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Geographic Mapping ; *Models, Chemical ; Regression Analysis ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {We can effectively monitor soil condition-and develop sound policies to offset the emissions of greenhouse gases-only with accurate data from which to define baselines. Currently, estimates of soil organic C for countries or continents are either unavailable or largely uncertain because they are derived from sparse data, with large gaps over many areas of the Earth. Here, we derive spatially explicit estimates, and their uncertainty, of the distribution and stock of organic C in the soil of Australia. We assembled and harmonized data from several sources to produce the most comprehensive set of data on the current stock of organic C in soil of the continent. Using them, we have produced a fine spatial resolution baseline map of organic C at the continental scale. We describe how we made it by combining the bootstrap, a decision tree with piecewise regression on environmental variables and geostatistical modelling of residuals. Values of stock were predicted at the nodes of a 3-arc-sec (approximately 90 m) grid and mapped together with their uncertainties. We then calculated baselines of soil organic C storage over the whole of Australia, its states and territories, and regions that define bioclimatic zones, vegetation classes and land use. The average amount of organic C in Australian topsoil is estimated to be 29.7 t ha(-1) with 95% confidence limits of 22.6 and 37.9 t ha(-1) . The total stock of organic C in the 0-30 cm layer of soil for the continent is 24.97 Gt with 95% confidence limits of 19.04 and 31.83 Gt. This represents approximately 3.5% of the total stock in the upper 30 cm of soil worldwide. Australia occupies 5.2% of the global land area, so the total organic C stock of Australian soil makes an important contribution to the global carbon cycle, and it provides a significant potential for sequestration. As the most reliable approximation of the stock of organic C in Australian soil in 2010, our estimates have important applications. They could support Australia's National Carbon Accounting System, help guide the formulation of policy around carbon offset schemes, improve Australia's carbon balances, serve to direct future sampling for inventory, guide the design of monitoring networks and provide a benchmark against which to assess the impact of changes in land cover, land management and climate on the stock of C in Australia. In this way, these estimates would help us to develop strategies to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24599697, year = {2014}, author = {Ernakovich, JG and Hopping, KA and Berdanier, AB and Simpson, RT and Kachergis, EJ and Steltzer, H and Wallenstein, MD}, title = {Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {10}, pages = {3256-3269}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12568}, pmid = {24599697}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; *Seasons ; Snow ; Temperature ; *Tundra ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is already having significant impacts on arctic and alpine ecosystems, and ongoing increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns will affect the strong seasonal patterns that characterize these temperature-limited systems. The length of the potential growing season in these tundra environments is increasing due to warmer temperatures and earlier spring snow melt. Here, we compare current and projected climate and ecological data from 20 Northern Hemisphere sites to identify how seasonal changes in the physical environment due to climate change will alter the seasonality of arctic and alpine ecosystems. We find that although arctic and alpine ecosystems appear similar under historical climate conditions, climate change will lead to divergent responses, particularly in the spring and fall shoulder seasons. As seasonality changes in the Arctic, plants will advance the timing of spring phenological events, which could increase plant nutrient uptake, production, and ecosystem carbon (C) gain. In alpine regions, photoperiod will constrain spring plant phenology, limiting the extent to which the growing season can lengthen, especially if decreased water availability from earlier snow melt and warmer summer temperatures lead to earlier senescence. The result could be a shorter growing season with decreased production and increased nutrient loss. These contrasting alpine and arctic ecosystem responses will have cascading effects on ecosystems, affecting community structure, biotic interactions, and biogeochemistry.}, }
@article {pmid24599259, year = {2014}, author = {Li, Y and Wang, N and Zhang, C}, title = {An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {e90241}, pmid = {24599259}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Asia, Eastern ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Lakes ; Particle Size ; Rain ; Rivers ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical features.}, }
@article {pmid24596901, year = {2014}, author = {McMichael, AJ}, title = {Earth as humans' habitat: global climate change and the health of populations.}, journal = {International journal of health policy and management}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {9-12}, pmid = {24596901}, issn = {2322-5939}, abstract = {Human-induced climate change, with such rapid and continuing global-scale warming, is historically unprecedented and signifies that human pressures on Earth's life-supporting natural systems now exceed the planet's bio-geo-capacity. The risks from climate change to health and survival in populations are diverse, as are the social and political ramifications. Although attributing observed health changes in a population to the recent climatic change is difficult, a coherent pattern of climate- and weather-associated changes is now evident in many regions of the world. The risks impinge unevenly, especially on poorer and vulnerable regions, and are amplified by pre-existing high rates of climate-sensitive diseases and conditions. If, as now appears likely, the world warms by 3-5oC by 2100, the health consequences, directly and via massive social and economic disruption, will be severe. The health sector has an important message to convey, comparing the health risks and benefits of enlightened action to avert climate change and to achieve sustainable ways of living versus the self-interested or complacent inaction.}, }
@article {pmid24596427, year = {2014}, author = {Caminade, C and Kovats, S and Rocklov, J and Tompkins, AM and Morse, AP and Colón-González, FJ and Stenlund, H and Martens, P and Lloyd, SJ}, title = {Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {9}, pages = {3286-3291}, pmid = {24596427}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Demography ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Risk Assessment ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Temperature ; Uncertainty ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.}, }
@article {pmid24587563, year = {2013}, author = {Wohlfahrt, G and Cremonese, E and Hammerle, A and Hörtnagl, L and Galvagno, M and Gianelle, D and Marcolla, B and di Cella, UM}, title = {Tradeoffs between global warming and day length on the start of the carbon uptake period in seasonally cold ecosystems.}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {40}, number = {23}, pages = {6136-6142}, pmid = {24587563}, issn = {0094-8276}, support = {P 17560/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; P 19849/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; P 23267/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, abstract = {It is well established that warming leads to longer growing seasons in seasonally cold ecosystems. Whether this goes along with an increase in the net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake is much more controversial. We studied the effects of warming on the start of the carbon uptake period (CUP) of three mountain grasslands situated along an elevational gradient in the Alps. To this end we used a simple empirical model of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, calibrated and forced with multi-year empirical data from each site. We show that reductions in the quantity and duration of daylight associated with earlier snowmelts were responsible for diminishing returns, in terms of carbon gain, from longer growing seasons caused by reductions in daytime photosynthetic uptake and increases in nighttime losses of CO2. This effect was less pronounced at high, compared to low, elevations, where the start of the CUP occurred closer to the summer solstice when changes in day length and incident radiation are minimal.}, }
@article {pmid24586328, year = {2014}, author = {Baca, M and Läderach, P and Haggar, J and Schroth, G and Ovalle, O}, title = {An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e88463}, pmid = {24586328}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Central America ; *Climate Change ; Coffee/*growth &amp; development ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Family ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.}, }
@article {pmid24579703, year = {2014}, author = {Gladis-Schmacka, F and Glatzel, S and Karsten, U and Böttcher, H and Schumann, R}, title = {Influence of local climate and climate change on aeroterrestrial phototrophic biofilms.}, journal = {Biofouling}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {401-414}, doi = {10.1080/08927014.2013.878334}, pmid = {24579703}, issn = {1029-2454}, mesh = {*Biofilms ; Biomass ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Phototrophic Processes ; }, abstract = {Aeroterrestrial phototrophic biofilms colonize natural and man-made surfaces and may damage the material they settle on. The occurrence of biofilms varies between regions with different climatic conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the growth of aeroterrestrial phototrophs. Phototrophic biomass was recorded on roof tiles at six sites within Germany five times over a period of five years and compared to climatic parameters from neighboring weather stations. All correlating meteorological factors influenced water availability on the surface of the roof tiles. The results indicate that the frequency of rainy days and not the mean precipitation per season is more important for biofilm proliferation. It is also inferred that the macroclimate is more important than the microclimate. In conclusion, changed (regional) climatic conditions may determine where in central Europe global change will promote or inhibit phototrophic growth in the future.}, }
@article {pmid24578569, year = {2014}, author = {Clement, A and DiNezio, P}, title = {Climate change. The tropical Pacific Ocean--back in the driver's seat?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {343}, number = {6174}, pages = {976-978}, doi = {10.1126/science.1248115}, pmid = {24578569}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Cold Temperature ; *Global Warming ; Pacific Ocean ; Surface Properties ; }, }
@article {pmid24574161, year = {2014}, author = {Harrigan, RJ and Thomassen, HA and Buermann, W and Smith, TB}, title = {A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {2417-2425}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12534}, pmid = {24574161}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Bird Diseases/epidemiology/transmission ; *Climate Change ; Culicidae/virology ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/virology ; *Models, Theoretical ; North America/epidemiology ; Passeriformes/virology ; Risk Assessment ; West Nile Fever/*epidemiology/transmission/veterinary ; *West Nile virus ; }, abstract = {Since first introduced to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across the continent, threatening wildlife populations and posing serious health risks to humans. While WNV incidence has been linked to environmental factors, particularly temperature and rainfall, little is known about how future climate change may affect the spread of the disease. Using available data on WNV infections in vectors and hosts collected from 2003-2011 and using a suite of 10 species distribution models, weighted according to their predictive performance, we modeled the incidence of WNV under current climate conditions at a continental scale. Models were found to accurately predict spatial patterns of WNV that were then used to examine how future climate may affect the spread of the disease. Predictions were accurate for cases of human WNV infection in the following year (2012), with areas reporting infections having significantly higher probability of presence as predicted by our models. Projected geographic distributions of WNV in North America under future climate for 2050 and 2080 show an expansion of suitable climate for the disease, driven by warmer temperatures and lower annual precipitation that will result in the exposure of new and naïve host populations to the virus with potentially serious consequences. Our risk assessment identifies current and future hotspots of West Nile virus where mitigation efforts should be focused and presents an important new approach for monitoring vector-borne disease under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24570211, year = {2014}, author = {Brown, HC and Smit, B and Somorin, OA and Sonwa, DJ and Nkem, JN}, title = {Climate change and forest communities: prospects for building institutional adaptive capacity in the Congo Basin forests.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {43}, number = {6}, pages = {759-769}, pmid = {24570211}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Cameroon ; Central African Republic ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Decision Making ; Democratic Republic of the Congo ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Policy ; Government Agencies ; *Government Regulation ; International Agencies ; }, abstract = {Tropical forests are vulnerable to climate-change representing a risk for indigenous peoples and forest-dependent communities. Mechanisms to conserve the forest, such as REDD+, could assist in the mitigation of climate change, reduce vulnerability, and enable people to adapt. Ninety-eight interviews were conducted in three countries containing the Congo Basin forest, Cameroon, CAR, and DRC, to investigate perceptions of decision-makers within, and responses of the institutions of the state, private sector, and civil society to the challenges of climate change. Results indicate that while decision-makers' awareness of climate change is high, direct institutional action is at an early stage. Adaptive capacity is currently low, but it could be enhanced with further development of institutional linkages and increased coordination of multilevel responses across all institutions and with local people. It is important to build networks with forest-dependent stakeholders at the local level, who can contribute knowledge that will build overall institutional adaptive capacity.}, }
@article {pmid24567375, year = {2014}, author = {Havlík, P and Valin, H and Herrero, M and Obersteiner, M and Schmid, E and Rufino, MC and Mosnier, A and Thornton, PK and Böttcher, H and Conant, RT and Frank, S and Fritz, S and Fuss, S and Kraxner, F and Notenbaert, A}, title = {Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {10}, pages = {3709-3714}, pmid = {24567375}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Livestock/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y(-1)), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y(-1). Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y(-1) could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient--measured in "total abatement calorie cost"--than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid24566049, year = {2014}, author = {Suk, JE and Ebi, KL and Vose, D and Wint, W and Alexander, N and Mintiens, K and Semenza, JC}, title = {Indicators for tracking European vulnerabilities to the risks of infectious disease transmission due to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {2218-2235}, pmid = {24566049}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Feasibility Studies ; Humans ; Infections/*transmission ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24565636, year = {2013}, author = {Ogawa, H and Fujimura, M and Satoh, K and Makimura, K}, title = {Re: Integrated research on the association between climate change and Bjerkandera allergy.}, journal = {The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. In practice}, volume = {1}, number = {5}, pages = {543}, pmid = {24565636}, issn = {2213-2201}, support = {K24 AI106822/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*etiology ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid24564149, year = {2013}, author = {Sui, Y and Huang, WH and Yang, XG and Li, MS}, title = {[Characteristics of seasonal drought and its adaptation in southern China under the background of global climate change. VI. Optimized layout of cropping system for preventing and avoiding drought disaster].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {3192-3198}, pmid = {24564149}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Agriculture/*methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Disasters/prevention &amp; control ; *Droughts ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Southern China is an important agricultural planting region of China, but the seasonal drought severely impacted the regional agricultural production. Based on the 1981-2007 meteorological data from 13 typical meteorological stations in the seasonal drought areas in southern China and the data of related crops growth period and yield, three precipitation year types (drought year, normal year, and wet year) were classified based on the yearly precipitation, and by using five indices (coupling degree of water requirement and precipitation during crop water critical stages, meteorological crop yield, output value per unit area, and water use efficiency and precipitation during whole growth period), the comprehensive benefit of all possible cropping patterns in each typical region was evaluated, and the optimal cropping patterns in the different regions of southern China in different precipitation years were obtained. In the semi-arid region, the optimal cropping patterns in dry year included potato-maize-sweet potato and winter wheat-rice-sweet potato. In the semi-humid region and during dry year, winter wheat-rice-sweet potato was the best choice, and rape seed-rice-sweet potato was the second one. In the warm and humid region (the typical region where seasonal drought happened), the best cropping pattern in Jiangnan area in different precipitation years was potato-double cropping rice, and the suitable patterns in southwest area were the triple cropping systems with drought-resistant crops, such as winter wheat-rice-sweet potato, winter wheat-maize-sweet potato, and potato-double cropping rice. From the aspect of maximally utilizing water and heat resources, triple cropping would be the best choice, with the rice and upland crop rotation as the main and with the rice arranged in pairs in wet year.}, }
@article {pmid24558584, year = {2014}, author = {Lima, M}, title = {Climate change and the population collapse during the "Great Famine" in pre-industrial Europe.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {284-291}, pmid = {24558584}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Population dynamics, economy, and human demography started with Malthus, the idea that population growth is limited by resources and "positive checks" occur when population growth overshoots the available resources. In fact, historical evidence indicates that long-term climate changes have destabilized civilizations and caused population collapses via food shortages, diseases, and wars. One of the worst population collapses of human societies occurred during the early fourteenth century in northern Europe; the "Great Famine" was the consequence of the dramatic effects of climate deterioration on human population growth. Thus, part of my motivation was to demonstrate that simple theoretical-based models can be helpful in understanding the causes of population change in preindustrial societies. Here, the results suggest that a logistic model with temperature as a "lateral" perturbation effect is the key element for explaining the population collapse exhibited by the European population during the "Great Famine".}, }
@article {pmid24558140, year = {2014}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Atlantic current can shut down for centuries, disrupting climate.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {343}, number = {6173}, pages = {831}, doi = {10.1126/science.343.6173.831}, pmid = {24558140}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Foraminifera/*physiology ; Geologic Sediments/microbiology ; *Global Warming ; Seawater/*microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid24556349, year = {2014}, author = {Fischer, D and Thomas, SM and Neteler, M and Tjaden, NB and Beierkuhnlein, C}, title = {Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches.}, journal = {Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {}, doi = {10.2807/1560-7917.es2014.19.6.20696}, pmid = {24556349}, issn = {1560-7917}, mesh = {Aedes/classification/*growth &amp; development ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Europe ; Insect Vectors/*growth &amp; development ; Introduced Species ; *Models, Biological ; *Models, Theoretical ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans. Since its introduction at the end of the 20th century, it has become well established in large parts of southern Europe. As future expansion as a result of climate change can be expected, determining the current and projected future climatic suitability of this invasive mosquito in Europe is of interest. Several studies have tried to detect the potential habitats for this species, but differing data sources and modelling approaches must be considered when interpreting the findings. Here, various modelling methodologies are compared with special emphasis on model set-up and study design. Basic approaches and model algorithms for the projection of spatio-temporal trends within the 21st century differ substantially. Applied methods range from mechanistic models (e.g. overlay of climatic constraints based on geographic information systems or rather process-based approaches) to correlative niche models. We conclude that spatial characteristics such as introduction gateways and dispersal pathways need to be considered. Laboratory experiments addressing the climatic constraints of the mosquito are required for improved modelling results. However, the main source of uncertainty remains the insufficient knowledge about the species' ability to adapt to novel environments.}, }
@article {pmid24553767, year = {2013}, author = {Wiwanitkit, S}, title = {Climate change, environmental temperature change, and resistance to insecticides of dengue mosquito.}, journal = {Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {366}, pmid = {24553767}, issn = {1680-5348}, mesh = {Aedes/*drug effects ; Animals ; Fenthion/*pharmacology ; Insect Vectors/*drug effects ; *Insecticide Resistance ; Insecticides/*pharmacology ; Malathion/*pharmacology ; Temefos/*pharmacology ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid24551197, year = {2014}, author = {Bush, AA and Nipperess, DA and Duursma, DE and Theischinger, G and Turak, E and Hughes, L}, title = {Continental-scale assessment of risk to the Australian odonata from climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e88958}, pmid = {24551197}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Fresh Water ; *Models, Theoretical ; Odonata/*physiology ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85%) species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56-69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse) varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3-17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other freshwater species.}, }
@article {pmid24550460, year = {2014}, author = {Freeman, BG and Class Freeman, AM}, title = {Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {12}, pages = {4490-4494}, pmid = {24550460}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Birds ; *Global Warming ; New Guinea ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Temperate-zone species have responded to warming temperatures by shifting their distributions poleward and upslope. Thermal tolerance data suggests that tropical species may respond to warming temperatures even more strongly than temperate-zone species, but this prediction has yet to be tested. We addressed this data gap by conducting resurveys to measure distributional responses to temperature increases in the elevational limits of the avifaunas of two geographically and faunally independent New Guinean mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, 47 and 44 y after they were originally surveyed. Although species richness is roughly five times greater on mainland Mt. Karimui than oceanic Karkar Island, distributional shifts at both sites were similar: upslope shifts averaged 113 m (Mt. Karimui) and 152 m (Karkar Island) for upper limits and 95 m (Mt. Karimui) and 123 m (Karkar Island) for lower limits. We incorporated these results into a metaanalysis to compare distributional responses of tropical species with those of temperate-zone species, finding that average upslope shifts in tropical montane species match local temperature increases significantly more closely than in temperate-zone montane species. That tropical species appear to be strong responders has global conservation implications and provides empirical support to hitherto untested models that predict widespread extinctions in upper-elevation tropical endemics with small ranges.}, }
@article {pmid24549716, year = {2014}, author = {Overgaard, J and Kearney, MR and Hoffmann, AA}, title = {Sensitivity to thermal extremes in Australian Drosophila implies similar impacts of climate change on the distribution of widespread and tropical species.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {1738-1750}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12521}, pmid = {24549716}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Drosophila/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Environment ; Female ; Global Warming ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Population Growth ; *Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Climatic factors influence the distribution of ectotherms, raising the possibility that distributions of many species will shift rapidly under climate change and/or that species will become locally extinct. Recent studies have compared performance curves of species from different climate zones and suggested that tropical species may be more susceptible to climate change than those from temperate environments. However, in other comparisons involving responses to thermal extremes it has been suggested that mid-latitude populations are more susceptible. Using a group of 10 closely related Drosophila species with known tropical or widespread distribution, we undertake a detailed investigation of their growth performance curves and their tolerance to thermal extremes. Thermal sensitivity of life history traits (fecundity, developmental success, and developmental time) and adult heat resistance were similar in tropical and widespread species groups, while widespread species had higher adult cold tolerance under all acclimation regimes. Laboratory measurements of either population growth capacity or acute tolerance to heat and cold extremes were compared to daily air temperature under current (2002-2007) and future (2100) conditions to investigate if these traits could explain current distributions and, therefore, also forecast future effects of climate change. Life history traits examining the thermal sensitivity of population growth proved to be a poor predictor of current species distributions. In contrast, we validate that adult tolerance to thermal extremes provides a good correlate of current distributions. Thus, in their current distribution range, most of the examined species experience heat exposure close to, but rarely above, the functional heat resistance limit. Similarly, adult functional cold resistance proved a good predictor of species distribution in cooler climates. When using the species' functional tolerance limits under a global warming scenario, we find that both tropical and widespread Drosophila species will face a similar proportional reduction in distribution range under future warming.}, }
@article {pmid24548839, year = {2013}, author = {Vineis, P}, title = {[Why climate change is not taken seriously?].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {37}, number = {6}, pages = {406-407}, pmid = {24548839}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid24535397, year = {2014}, author = {Harvey, CA and Rakotobe, ZL and Rao, NS and Dave, R and Razafimahatratra, H and Rabarijohn, RH and Rajaofara, H and Mackinnon, JL}, title = {Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {369}, number = {1639}, pages = {20130089}, pmid = {24535397}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics/methods/*trends ; Climate Change/*economics ; Focus Groups ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; Madagascar ; Rural Population ; Seasons ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24533071, year = {2014}, author = {Storkey, J and Stratonovitch, P and Chapman, DS and Vidotto, F and Semenov, MA}, title = {A process-based approach to predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of an invasive allergenic plant in Europe.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e88156}, pmid = {24533071}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Ambrosia/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Geography ; Hypersensitivity, Immediate/prevention &amp; control ; *Introduced Species ; Models, Theoretical ; Pollen ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Ambrosia artemisiifolia is an invasive weed in Europe with highly allergenic pollen. Populations are currently well established and cause significant health problems in the French Rhône valley, Austria, Hungary and Croatia but transient or casual introduced populations are also found in more Northern and Eastern European countries. A process-based model of weed growth, competition and population dynamics was used to predict the future potential for range expansion of A.artemisiifolia under climate change scenarios. The model predicted a northward shift in the available climatic niche for populations to establish and persist, creating a risk of increased health problems in countries including the UK and Denmark. This was accompanied by an increase in relative pollen production at the northern edge of its range. The southern European limit for A.artemisiifolia was not expected to change; populations continued to be limited by drought stress in Spain and Southern Italy. The process-based approach to modelling the impact of climate change on plant populations has the advantage over correlative species distribution models of being able to capture interactions of climate, land use and plant competition at the local scale. However, for this potential to be fully realised, additional empirical data are required on competitive dynamics of A.artemisiifolia in different crops and ruderal plant communities and its capacity to adapt to local conditions.}, }
@article {pmid24531959, year = {2014}, author = {Sherwood, S and Fu, Q}, title = {Climate change. A drier future?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {343}, number = {6172}, pages = {737-739}, doi = {10.1126/science.1247620}, pmid = {24531959}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Droughts ; *Global Warming ; Humidity ; Models, Theoretical ; Surface Properties ; Volatilization ; }, }
@article {pmid24531953, year = {2014}, author = {Wallace, JM and Held, IM and Thompson, DW and Trenberth, KE and Walsh, JE}, title = {Global warming and winter weather.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {343}, number = {6172}, pages = {729-730}, doi = {10.1126/science.343.6172.729}, pmid = {24531953}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Cold Temperature ; *Global Warming ; Ice Cover ; *Seasons ; *Snow ; United States ; Wind ; }, }
@article {pmid24521625, year = {2013}, author = {Dhara, VR and Schramm, PJ and Luber, G}, title = {Climate change &amp; infectious diseases in India: implications for health care providers.}, journal = {The Indian journal of medical research}, volume = {138}, number = {6}, pages = {847-852}, pmid = {24521625}, issn = {0975-9174}, mesh = {Animals ; Cholera/epidemiology/microbiology/*transmission ; *Climate Change ; Culicidae/microbiology/pathogenicity ; Delivery of Health Care ; Humans ; India ; Malaria/epidemiology/microbiology/*transmission ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change has the potential to influence the earth's biological systems, however, its effects on human health are not well defined. Developing nations with limited resources are expected to face a host of health effects due to climate change, including vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera, and dengue. This article reviews common and prevalent infectious diseases in India, their links to climate change, and how health care providers might discuss preventive health care strategies with their patients.}, }
@article {pmid24521057, year = {2014}, author = {Rumsey, M and Fletcher, SM and Thiessen, J and Gero, A and Kuruppu, N and Daly, J and Buchan, J and Willetts, J}, title = {A qualitative examination of the health workforce needs during climate change disaster response in Pacific Island Countries.}, journal = {Human resources for health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {9}, pmid = {24521057}, issn = {1478-4491}, mesh = {Altruism ; *Capacity Building ; *Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; *Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; Health Policy ; *Health Services Needs and Demand ; *Health Workforce ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; Organizations ; Pacific Islands ; Qualitative Research ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There is a growing body of evidence that the impacts of climate change are affecting population health negatively. The Pacific region is particularly vulnerable to climate change; a strong health-care system is required to respond during times of disaster. This paper examines the capacity of the health sector in Pacific Island Countries to adapt to changing disaster response needs, in terms of: (i) health workforce governance, management, policy and involvement; (ii) health-care capacity and skills; and (iii) human resources for health training and workforce development.<br><br>METHODS: Key stakeholder interviews informed the assessment of the capacity of the health sector and disaster response organizations in Pacific Island Countries to adapt to disaster response needs under a changing climate. The research specifically drew upon and examined the adaptive capacity of individual organizations and the broader system of disaster response in four case study countries (Fiji, Cook Islands, Vanuatu and Samoa).<br><br>RESULTS: 'Capacity' including health-care capacity was one of the objective determinants identified as most significant in influencing the adaptive capacity of disaster response systems in the Pacific. The research identified several elements that could support the adaptive capacity of the health sector such as: inclusive involvement in disaster coordination; policies in place for health workforce coordination; belief in their abilities; and strong donor support. Factors constraining adaptive capacity included: weak coordination of international health personnel; lack of policies to address health worker welfare; limited human resources and material resources; shortages of personnel to deal with psychosocial needs; inadequate skills in field triage and counselling; and limited capacity for training.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Findings from this study can be used to inform the development of human resources for health policies and strategic plans, and to support the development of a coordinated and collaborative approach to disaster response training across the Pacific and other developing contexts. This study also provides an overview of health-care capacity and some of the challenges and strengths that can inform future development work by humanitarian organizations, regional and international donors involved in climate change adaptation, and disaster risk reduction in the Pacific region.}, }
@article {pmid24517127, year = {2014}, author = {Orosa, JA and Costa, AM and Rodríguez-Fernández, A and Roshan, G}, title = {Effect of climate change on outdoor thermal comfort in humid climates.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health science &amp; engineering}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {46}, pmid = {24517127}, issn = {2052-336X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Galicia, in northwest Spain, experiences warm summers and winters. However, the higher relative humidity that prevails the whole year through and the location of the summer hot points are related to real weather heat stroke in the hottest season. However, Planet Global Heating was recently analyzed for the climate in Galicia. Climate change was found to be able to trigger effects that involve a new situation with new potential regions of risk. In this paper, 50 weather stations were selected to sample the weather conditions in this humid region, over the last 10 years. From these results, new regions with a potential for heat stroke risk in the next 20 years were identified using the humidex index.<br><br>RESULTS: Results reveal that during the last 10 years, the winter season presents more comfortable conditions, whereas the summer season presents the highest humidex value. Further, the higher relative humidity throughout the whole year reveals that the humidex index clearly depends upon the outdoor temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Global Planet Heating shows a definite effect on the outdoor comfort conditions reaching unbearable degrees in the really hottest zones. Therefore, this effect will clearly influence tourism and risk prevention strategies in these areas.}, }
@article {pmid24516601, year = {2014}, author = {Pei, Q and Zhang, DD and Lee, HF and Li, G}, title = {Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e88155}, pmid = {24516601}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture/*history ; Climate Change/*history ; Economic Development/*history ; Europe ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.}, }
@article {pmid24515971, year = {2014}, author = {Thompson, SE and Levin, S and Rodriguez-Iturbe, I}, title = {Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {1299-1312}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12463}, pmid = {24515971}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; Phytophthora/*pathogenicity/*physiology ; Plant Diseases/microbiology ; Rain ; Seasons ; Soil Microbiology ; Southwestern United States ; Stochastic Processes ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction.}, }
@article {pmid24512877, year = {2014}, author = {Thuy Nguyen, PL}, title = {Influencing agricultural policy: a call for intersectoral collaboration to reduce obesity and climate change.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {46}, number = {3}, pages = {e43}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2013.10.015}, pmid = {24512877}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Obesity/*epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid24512339, year = {2014}, author = {Keith, DA and Mahony, M and Hines, H and Elith, J and Regan, TJ and Baumgartner, JB and Hunter, D and Heard, GW and Mitchell, NJ and Parris, KM and Penman, T and Scheele, B and Simpson, CC and Tingley, R and Tracy, CR and West, M and Akçakaya, HR}, title = {Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN Red List criteria.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {810-819}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12234}, pmid = {24512339}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; Anura ; Australia ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Endangered Species ; Environmental Policy ; *Extinction, Biological ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow-acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short-lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions.}, }
@article {pmid24510920, year = {2015}, author = {Poberezhskaya, M}, title = {Media coverage of climate change in Russia: governmental bias and climate silence.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {96-111}, doi = {10.1177/0963662513517848}, pmid = {24510920}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Policy ; *Mass Media ; Newspapers as Topic/*trends ; *Public Opinion ; Russia ; }, abstract = {This paper explores which actors and factors influence media coverage of climate change in Russia. It does this by analysing the coverage of three events by five Russian national newspapers (Komsomol'skaya pravda, Rossiyskaya gazeta, Izvestiya, Kommersant and Sovetskaya Rossiya). The three events are the Kyoto Conference in 1997, the Copenhagen Conference in 2009 and the Russian heat-wave of 2010. This paper concludes that regardless of the ownership structure of the newspapers or their dependence on advertising, there is little difference in quantity and quality of overall coverage on climate change. With most newspapers relying on Russian officials as information sources, almost none criticise or question Russian climate policy. Furthermore, the article concludes that, in Russia, the omission of climate change issues from discussion in national newspapers becomes a greater problem than biased coverage, as the lack of commentary decidedly prevents these issues from entering the public debate.}, }
@article {pmid24501178, year = {2014}, author = {Polley, HW and Derner, JD and Jackson, RB and Wilsey, BJ and Fay, PA}, title = {Impacts of climate change drivers on C4 grassland productivity: scaling driver effects through the plant community.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {65}, number = {13}, pages = {3415-3424}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/eru009}, pmid = {24501178}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; Climate Change ; Demography ; Grassland ; Plant Transpiration/*physiology ; Poaceae/*physiology ; Texas ; Water/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change drivers affect plant community productivity via three pathways: (i) direct effects of drivers on plants; (ii) the response of species abundances to drivers (community response); and (iii) the feedback effect of community change on productivity (community effect). The contribution of each pathway to driver-productivity relationships depends on functional traits of dominant species. We used data from three experiments in Texas, USA, to assess the role of community dynamics in the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) response of C4 grasslands to two climate drivers applied singly: atmospheric CO2 enrichment and augmented summer precipitation. The ANPP-driver response differed among experiments because community responses and effects differed. ANPP increased by 80-120g m(-2) per 100 μl l(-1) rise in CO2 in separate experiments with pasture and tallgrass prairie assemblages. Augmenting ambient precipitation by 128mm during one summer month each year increased ANPP more in native than in exotic communities in a third experiment. The community effect accounted for 21-38% of the ANPP CO2 response in the prairie experiment but little of the response in the pasture experiment. The community response to CO2 was linked to species traits associated with greater soil water from reduced transpiration (e.g. greater height). Community effects on the ANPP CO2 response and the greater ANPP response of native than exotic communities to augmented precipitation depended on species differences in transpiration efficiency. These results indicate that feedbacks from community change influenced ANPP-driver responses. However, the species traits that regulated community effects on ANPP differed from the traits that determined how communities responded to drivers.}, }
@article {pmid24499879, year = {2014}, author = {Fleming, LE and Haines, A and Golding, B and Kessel, A and Cichowska, A and Sabel, CE and Depledge, MH and Sarran, C and Osborne, NJ and Whitmore, C and Cocksedge, N and Bloomfield, D}, title = {Data mashups: potential contribution to decision support on climate change and health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {1725-1746}, pmid = {24499879}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {MR/K006525/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; MR/K019341/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Data Collection ; *Data Mining ; *Decision Support Techniques ; *Health ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Linking environmental, socioeconomic and health datasets provides new insights into the potential associations between climate change and human health and wellbeing, and underpins the development of decision support tools that will promote resilience to climate change, and thus enable more effective adaptation. This paper outlines the challenges and opportunities presented by advances in data collection, storage, analysis, and access, particularly focusing on "data mashups". These data mashups are integrations of different types and sources of data, frequently using open application programming interfaces and data sources, to produce enriched results that were not necessarily the original reason for assembling the raw source data. As an illustration of this potential, this paper describes a recently funded initiative to create such a facility in the UK for use in decision support around climate change and health, and provides examples of suitable sources of data and the purposes to which they can be directed, particularly for policy makers and public health decision makers.}, }
@article {pmid24496112, year = {2014}, author = {Hawkes, N}, title = {Climate change will reduce excess death rate from cold in UK, report shows.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {g1353}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g1353}, pmid = {24496112}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Climate Change/*mortality ; *Forecasting ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid24495900, year = {2015}, author = {Lo, AY and Jim, CY}, title = {Come rain or shine? Public expectation on local weather change and differential effects on climate change attitude.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {928-942}, doi = {10.1177/0963662513517483}, pmid = {24495900}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Hong Kong ; Humans ; *Information Dissemination ; Perception ; *Public Opinion ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Tailored messages are instrumental to climate change communication. Information about the global threat can be 'localised' by demonstrating its linkage with local events. This research ascertains the relationship between climate change attitude and perception of local weather, based on a survey involving 800 Hong Kong citizens. Results indicate that concerns about climate change increase with expectations about the likelihood and impacts of local weather change. Climate change believers attend to all three types of adverse weather events, namely, temperature rises, tropical cyclones and prolonged rains. Climate scepticism, however, is not associated with expectation about prolonged rains. Differential spatial orientations are a possible reason. Global climate change is an unprecedented and distant threat, whereas local rain is a more familiar and localised weather event. Global climate change should be articulated in terms that respect local concerns. Localised framing may be particularly effective for engaging individuals holding positive views about climate change science.}, }
@article {pmid24494940, year = {2014}, author = {Lowe, M}, title = {Obesity and climate change mitigation in Australia: overview and analysis of policies with co-benefits.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {19-24}, doi = {10.1111/1753-6405.12150}, pmid = {24494940}, issn = {1753-6405}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Obesity ; Public Health ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To provide an overview of the shared structural causes of obesity and climate change, and analyse policies that could be implemented in Australia to both equitably reduce obesity rates and contribute to mitigating climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Informed by the political economy of health theoretical framework, a review was conducted of the literature on the shared causes of, and solutions to, obesity and climate change. Policies with potential co-benefits for climate change and obesity were then analysed based upon their feasibility and capacity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and equitably reduce obesity rates in Australia.<br><br>RESULTS: Policies with potential co-benefits fit within three broad categories: those to replace car use with low-emissions, active modes of transport; those to improve diets and reduce emissions from the food system; and macro-level economic policies to reduce the over-consumption of food and fossil fuel energy.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Given the complex causes of both problems, it is argued that a full spectrum of complementary strategies across different sectors should be utilised.<br><br>IMPLICATIONS: Such an approach would have significant public health, social and environmental benefits.}, }
@article {pmid24493740, year = {2014}, author = {Hajat, S and Vardoulakis, S and Heaviside, C and Eggen, B}, title = {Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and community health}, volume = {68}, number = {7}, pages = {641-648}, doi = {10.1136/jech-2013-202449}, pmid = {24493740}, issn = {1470-2738}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Cold Temperature/adverse effects ; *Forecasting ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Middle Aged ; Mortality/trends ; Public Health ; Regression Analysis ; Risk Assessment ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere.<br><br>METHODS: Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled.<br><br>RESULTS: A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41&#x2005;000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.}, }
@article {pmid24490596, year = {2014}, author = {Gehringer, MM and Wannicke, N}, title = {Climate change and regulation of hepatotoxin production in Cyanobacteria.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology ecology}, volume = {88}, number = {1}, pages = {1-25}, doi = {10.1111/1574-6941.12291}, pmid = {24490596}, issn = {1574-6941}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/classification/genetics/*metabolism ; Ecosystem ; Gene Expression Regulation, Bacterial ; Peptides, Cyclic/*genetics ; *Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Harmful, bloom-forming cyanobacteria (CyanoHABs) are occurring with increasing regularity in freshwater and marine ecosystems. The most commonly occurring cyanobacterial toxins are the hepatotoxic microcystin and nodularin. These cyclic hepta- and pentapeptides are synthesised nonribosomally by the gene products of the toxin gene clusters mcy and nda, respectively. Understanding of the regulation of hepatotoxin production is incomplete, although there is strong evidence supporting the roles of iron, light, higher nitrate availability and inorganic carbon in modulating microcystin levels. The majority of these studies have focused on the unicellular freshwater, microcystin-producing strain of Microcystis aeruginosa, with little attention being paid to terrestrial or marine toxin producers. This review intends to investigate the regulation of microcystin and nodularin production in unicellular and filamentous diazotrophic cyanobacteria against the background of changing climate conditions. Special focus is given to diazotrophic filamentous cyanobacteria, for example Nodularia spumigena, capable of regulating their nitrogen levels by actively fixing dinitrogen. By combining data from significant studies, an overall scheme of the regulation of toxin production is presented, focussing specifically on nodularin production in diazotrophs against the background of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures envisaged under current climate change models. Furthermore, the risk of sustaining and spreading CyanoHABs in the future ocean is evaluated.}, }
@article {pmid24489880, year = {2014}, author = {Zografou, K and Kati, V and Grill, A and Wilson, RJ and Tzirkalli, E and Pamperis, LN and Halley, JM}, title = {Signals of climate change in butterfly communities in a Mediterranean protected area.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e87245}, pmid = {24489880}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {V 169/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Greece ; Mediterranean Region ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998-2011/2012) and short-term (2011-2012) changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece) by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990-2012) in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a) species' elevational distributions in Greece and (b) Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species' abundance per transect and year). Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011-2012) variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species' resilience may have to be devised.}, }
@article {pmid24489663, year = {2014}, author = {Boersma, PD and Rebstock, GA}, title = {Climate change increases reproductive failure in Magellanic penguins.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e85602}, pmid = {24489663}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms ; Female ; Hot Temperature ; Male ; *Models, Statistical ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Spheniscidae/*physiology ; Starvation ; Survival Rate ; }, abstract = {Climate change is causing more frequent and intense storms, and climate models predict this trend will continue, potentially affecting wildlife populations. Since 1960 the number of days with >20 mm of rain increased near Punta Tombo, Argentina. Between 1983 and 2010 we followed 3496 known-age Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) chicks at Punta Tombo to determine how weather impacted their survival. In two years, rain was the most common cause of death killing 50% and 43% of chicks. In 26 years starvation killed the most chicks. Starvation and predation were present in all years. Chicks died in storms in 13 of 28 years and in 16 of 233 storms. Storm mortality was additive; there was no relationship between the number of chicks killed in storms and the numbers that starved (P = 0.75) or that were eaten (P = 0.39). However, when more chicks died in storms, fewer chicks fledged (P = 0.05, R(2) = 0.14). More chicks died when rainfall was higher and air temperature lower. Most chicks died from storms when they were 9-23 days old; the oldest chick killed in a storm was 41 days old. Storms with heavier rainfall killed older chicks as well as more chicks. Chicks up to 70 days old were killed by heat. Burrow nests mitigated storm mortality (N = 1063). The age span of chicks in the colony at any given time increased because the synchrony of egg laying decreased since 1983, lengthening the time when chicks are vulnerable to storms. Climate change that increases the frequency and intensity of storms results in more reproductive failure of Magellanic penguins, a pattern likely to apply to many species breeding in the region. Climate variability has already lowered reproductive success of Magellanic penguins and is likely undermining the resilience of many other species.}, }
@article {pmid24489657, year = {2014}, author = {Lescroël, A and Ballard, G and Grémillet, D and Authier, M and Ainley, DG}, title = {Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e85291}, pmid = {24489657}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Ice Cover ; Male ; *Models, Statistical ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Spheniscidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.}, }
@article {pmid24488566, year = {2014}, author = {Pérez-Rodríguez, A and de la Hera, I and Fernández-González, S and Pérez-Tris, J}, title = {Global warming will reshuffle the areas of high prevalence and richness of three genera of avian blood parasites.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {2406-2416}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12542}, pmid = {24488566}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; DNA, Protozoan/analysis ; *Global Warming ; Haemosporida/*physiology ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Models, Theoretical ; Passeriformes/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {The importance of parasitism for host populations depends on local parasite richness and prevalence: usually host individuals face higher infection risk in areas where parasites are most diverse, and host dispersal to or from these areas may have fitness consequences. Knowing how parasites are and will be distributed in space and time (in a context of global change) is thus crucial from both an ecological and a biological conservation perspective. Nevertheless, most research articles focus just on elaborating models of parasite distribution instead of parasite diversity. We produced distribution models of the areas where haemosporidian parasites are currently highly diverse (both at community and at within-host levels) and prevalent among Iberian populations of a model passerine host: the blackcap Sylvia atricapilla; and how these areas are expected to vary according to three scenarios of climate change. On the basis of these models, we analysed whether variation among populations in parasite richness or prevalence are expected to remain the same or change in the future, thereby reshuffling the geographic mosaic of host-parasite interactions as we observe it today. Our models predict a rearrangement of areas of high prevalence and richness of parasites in the future, with Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites (today the most diverse genera in blackcaps) losing areas of high diversity and Plasmodium parasites (the most virulent ones) gaining them. Likewise, the prevalence of multiple infections and parasite infracommunity richness would be reduced. Importantly, differences among populations in the prevalence and richness of parasites are expected to decrease in the future, creating a more homogeneous parasitic landscape. This predicts an altered geographic mosaic of host-parasite relationships, which will modify the interaction arena in which parasite virulence evolves.}, }
@article {pmid24488086, year = {2014}, author = {Ivajnšič, D and Kaligarič, M}, title = {How to preserve coastal wetlands, threatened by climate change-driven rises in sea level.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {671-684}, pmid = {24488086}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Altitude ; Bays ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Theoretical ; Seawater ; Slovenia ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {A habitat transition model, based on the correlation between individual habitats and micro-elevation intervals, showed substantial changes in the future spatial distributions of coastal habitats. The research was performed within two protected areas in Slovenia: Sečovlje Salina Nature Park and Škocjan Inlet Nature Reserve. Shifts between habitats will occur, but a general decline of 42 % for all Natura 2000 habitats is projected by 2060, according to local or global (IPCC AR4) sea level rise predictions. Three different countermeasures for the long-term conservation of targeted habitat types were proposed. The most "natural" is displacement of coastal habitats using buffer zones (1) were available. Another solution is construction of artificial islets, made of locally dredged material (2); a feasible solution in both protected areas. Twenty-two islets and a dried salt pan zone at the desired elevations suitable for those habitats that have been projected to decease in area would offer an additional 10 ha in the Sečovlje Salina. Twenty-one islets and two peninsulas at two different micro-altitudes would ensure the survival of 13 ha of three different habitats. In the area of Sečovlje Salina, abandoned salt pans could be terrestrialized by using permanent, artificial sea barriers, in a manner close to poldering (3). By using this countermeasure, another 32 ha of targeted habitat could be preserved. It can be concluded that, for each coastal area, where wetland habitats will shrink, strategic plans involving any of the three solutions should be prepared well in advance. The specific examples provided might facilitate adaptive management of coastal wetlands in general.}, }
@article {pmid24486005, year = {2014}, author = {Courchamp, F and Hoffmann, BD and Russell, JC and Leclerc, C and Bellard, C}, title = {Climate change, sea-level rise, and conservation: keeping island biodiversity afloat.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {127-130}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2014.01.001}, pmid = {24486005}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/*trends ; *Islands ; }, abstract = {Island conservation programs have been spectacularly successful over the past five decades, yet they generally do not account for impacts of climate change. Here, we argue that the full spectrum of climate change, especially sea-level rise and loss of suitable climatic conditions, should be rapidly integrated into island biodiversity research and management.}, }
@article {pmid24484109, year = {2014}, author = {Schultz, R and Tait, P}, title = {Climate change and diabetes: averting two linked catastrophes.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {200}, number = {2}, pages = {87}, doi = {10.5694/mja13.11163}, pmid = {24484109}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*prevention &amp; control ; Female ; Health Education/*organization &amp; administration ; *Health Policy ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Male ; Primary Prevention/*organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid24483088, year = {2013}, author = {Huang, WH and Sui, Y and Yang, XG and Dai, SW and Li, MS}, title = {[Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of climate change. V. Seasonal drought characteristics division and assessment in southern China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {10}, pages = {2917-2925}, pmid = {24483088}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*physiology ; Disasters/prevention &amp; control ; *Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Zoning seasonal drought based on the study of drought characteristics can provide theoretical basis for formulating drought mitigation plans and improving disaster reduction technologies in different arid zones under global climate change. Based on the National standard of meteorological drought indices and agricultural drought indices and the 1959-2008 meteorological data from 268 meteorological stations in southern China, this paper analyzed the climatic background and distribution characteristics of seasonal drought in southern China, and made a three-level division of seasonal drought in this region by the methods of combining comprehensive factors and main factors, stepwise screening indices, comprehensive disaster analysis, and clustering analysis. The first-level division was with the annual aridity index and seasonal aridity index as the main indices and with the precipitation during entire year and main crop growing season as the auxiliary indices, dividing the southern China into four primary zones, including semi-arid zone, sub-humid zone, humid zone, and super-humid zone. On this basis, the four primary zones were subdivided into nine second-level zones, including one semi-arid area-temperate-cold semi-arid hilly area in Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau, three sub-humid areas of warm sub-humid area in the north of the Yangtze River, warm-tropical sub-humid area in South China, and temperate-cold sub-humid plateau area in Southwest China, three humid areas of temperate-tropical humid area in the Yangtze River Basin, warm-tropical humid area in South China, and warm humid hilly area in Southwest China, and two super-humid areas of warm-tropical super-humid area in South China and temperate-cold super-humid hilly area in the south of the Yangtze River and Southwest China. According to the frequency and intensity of multiple drought indices, the second-level zones were further divided into 29 third-level zones. The distribution of each seasonal drought zone was illustrated, and the zonal drought characteristics and their impacts on the agricultural production were assessed. Accordingly, the drought prevention measures were proposed.}, }
@article {pmid24480426, year = {2014}, author = {Manciocco, A and Calamandrei, G and Alleva, E}, title = {Global warming and environmental contaminants in aquatic organisms: the need of the etho-toxicology approach.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {100}, number = {}, pages = {1-7}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2013.12.072}, pmid = {24480426}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*drug effects ; Ecotoxicology/*methods ; Environmental Pollutants/*toxicity ; Food Chain ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Seafood ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Environmental contaminants are associated with a wide spectrum of pathological effects. Temperature increase affects ambient distribution and toxicity of these chemicals in the water environment, representing a potentially emerging problem for aquatic species with short-, medium- and long-term repercussions on human health through the food chain. We assessed peer-reviewed literature, including primary studies, review articles and organizational reports available. We focused on studies concerning toxicity of environmental pollutants within a global warming scenario. Existing knowledge on the effects that the increase of water temperature in a contaminated situation has on physiological mechanisms of aquatic organisms is presented. Altogether we consider the potential consequences for the human beings due to fish and shellfish consumption. Finally, we propose an etho-toxicological approach to study the effects of toxicants in conditions of thermal increase, using aquatic organisms as experimental models under laboratory controlled conditions.}, }
@article {pmid24475365, year = {2014}, author = {Rivera, C}, title = {Integrating climate change adaptation into disaster risk reduction in urban contexts: perceptions and practice.}, journal = {PLoS currents}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {24475365}, issn = {2157-3999}, abstract = {This paper analyses the perceptions of disaster risk reduction (DRR) practitioners concerning the on-going integration of climate change adaptation (CCA) into their practices in urban contexts in Nicaragua. Understanding their perceptions is important as this will provide information on how this integration can be improved. Exploring the perceptions of practitioners in Nicaragua is important as the country has a long history of disasters, and practitioners have been developing the current DRR planning framework for more than a decade. The analysis is based on semi-structured interviews designed to collect information about practitioners' understanding of: (a) CCA, (b) the current level of integration of CCA into DRR and urban planning, (c) the opportunities and constraints of this integration, and (d) the potential to adapt cities to climate change. The results revealed that practitioners' perception is that the integration of CCA into their practice is at an early stage, and that they need to improve their understanding of CCA in terms of a development issue. Three main constraints on improved integration were identified: (a) a recognized lack of understanding of CCA, (b) insufficient guidance on how to integrate it, and (c) the limited opportunities to integrate it into urban planning due to a lack of instruments and capacity in this field. Three opportunities were also identified: (a) practitioners' awareness of the need to integrate CCA into their practices, (b) the robust structure of the DRR planning framework in the country, which provides a suitable channel for facilitating integration, and (c) the fact that CCA is receiving more attention and financial and technical support from the international community.}, }
@article {pmid24475265, year = {2014}, author = {Amorim, F and Carvalho, SB and Honrado, J and Rebelo, H}, title = {Designing optimized multi-species monitoring networks to detect range shifts driven by climate change: a case study with bats in the North of Portugal.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e87291}, pmid = {24475265}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; Chiroptera/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Decision Support Techniques ; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/*methods ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Portugal ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Here we develop a framework to design multi-species monitoring networks using species distribution models and conservation planning tools to optimize the location of monitoring stations to detect potential range shifts driven by climate change. For this study, we focused on seven bat species in Northern Portugal (Western Europe). Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the likely occurrence of those species under present and future climatic conditions. By comparing present and future predicted distributions, we identified areas where each species is likely to gain, lose or maintain suitable climatic space. We then used a decision support tool (the Marxan software) to design three optimized monitoring networks considering: a) changes in species likely occurrence, b) species conservation status, and c) level of volunteer commitment. For present climatic conditions, species distribution models revealed that areas suitable for most species occur in the north-eastern part of the region. However, areas predicted to become climatically suitable in the future shifted towards west. The three simulated monitoring networks, adaptable for an unpredictable volunteer commitment, included 28, 54 and 110 sampling locations respectively, distributed across the study area and covering the potential full range of conditions where species range shifts may occur. Our results show that our framework outperforms the traditional approach that only considers current species ranges, in allocating monitoring stations distributed across different categories of predicted shifts in species distributions. This study presents a straightforward framework to design monitoring schemes aimed specifically at testing hypotheses about where and when species ranges may shift with climatic changes, while also ensuring surveillance of general population trends.}, }
@article {pmid24466116, year = {2014}, author = {Riordan, EC and Rundel, PW}, title = {Land use compounds habitat losses under projected climate change in a threatened California ecosystem.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e86487}, pmid = {24466116}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; California ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; *Plants ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21(st) century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning.}, }
@article {pmid24465915, year = {2014}, author = {Thorner, J and Kumar, L and Smith, SD}, title = {Impacts of climate-change-driven sea level rise on intertidal rocky reef habitats will be variable and site specific.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e86130}, pmid = {24465915}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Intertidal rocky reefs are complex and rich ecosystems that are vulnerable to even the smallest fluctuations in sea level. We modelled habitat loss associated with sea level rise for intertidal rocky reefs using GIS, high-resolution digital imagery, and LIDAR technology at fine-scale resolution (0.1 m per pixel). We used projected sea levels of +0.3 m, +0.5 m and +1.0 m above current Mean Low Tide Level (0.4 m). Habitat loss and changes were analysed for each scenario for five headlands in the Solitary Islands Marine Park (SIMP), Australia. The results indicate that changes to habitat extent will be variable across different shores and will not necessarily result in net loss of area for some habitats. In addition, habitat modification will not follow a regular pattern over the projected sea levels. Two of the headlands included in the study currently have the maximum level of protection within the SIMP. However, these headlands are likely to lose much of the habitat known to support biodiverse assemblages and may not continue to be suitable sanctuaries into the future. The fine-scale approach taken in this study thus provides a protocol not only for modelling habitat modification but also for future proofing conservation measures under a scenario of changing sea levels.}, }
@article {pmid24465827, year = {2014}, author = {Nooten, SS and Andrew, NR and Hughes, L}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on insect communities: a transplant experiment.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e85987}, pmid = {24465827}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; Australia ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/classification/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Feeding Behavior/physiology ; Geography ; Hemiptera/classification/physiology ; Herbivory/classification/physiology ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Insecta/classification/*physiology ; Plants/*parasitology ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change will have profound impacts on the distribution, abundance and ecology of all species. We used a multi-species transplant experiment to investigate the potential effects of a warmer climate on insect community composition and structure. Eight native Australian plant species were transplanted into sites approximately 2.5°C (mean annual temperature) warmer than their native range. Subsequent insect colonisation was monitored for 12 months. We compared the insect communities on transplanted host plants at the warmer sites with control plants transplanted within the species' native range. Comparisons of the insect communities were also made among transplanted plants at warmer sites and congeneric plant species native to the warmer transplant area. We found that the morphospecies composition of the colonising Coleoptera and Hemiptera communities differed markedly between transplants at the control compared to the warmer sites. Community structure, as described by the distribution of feeding guilds, was also found to be different between the controls and transplants when the entire Coleoptera and Hemiptera community, including non-herbivore feeding guilds, was considered. However, the structure of the herbivorous insect community showed a higher level of consistency between plants at control and warm sites. There were marked differences in community composition and feeding guild structure, for both herbivores and non-herbivores, between transplants and congenerics at the warm sites. These results suggest that as the climate warms, considerable turnover in the composition of insect communities may occur, but insect herbivore communities may retain elements of their present-day structure.}, }
@article {pmid24465441, year = {2014}, author = {Lazarus, D and Barron, J and Renaudie, J and Diver, P and Türke, A}, title = {Cenozoic planktonic marine diatom diversity and correlation to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e84857}, pmid = {24465441}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; Carbon Cycle/physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Carbon Isotopes/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Diatoms/classification/*physiology ; Fossils ; Phytoplankton/classification/*physiology ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Seawater/microbiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Marine planktonic diatoms export carbon to the deep ocean, playing a key role in the global carbon cycle. Although commonly thought to have diversified over the Cenozoic as global oceans cooled, only two conflicting quantitative reconstructions exist, both from the Neptune deep-sea microfossil occurrences database. Total diversity shows Cenozoic increase but is sample size biased; conventional subsampling shows little net change. We calculate diversity from a separately compiled new diatom species range catalog, and recalculate Neptune subsampled-in-bin diversity using new methods to correct for increasing Cenozoic geographic endemism and decreasing Cenozoic evenness. We find coherent, substantial Cenozoic diversification in both datasets. Many living cold water species, including species important for export productivity, originate only in the latest Miocene or younger. We make a first quantitative comparison of diatom diversity to the global Cenozoic benthic ∂(18)O (climate) and carbon cycle records (∂(13)C, and 20-0 Ma pCO2). Warmer climates are strongly correlated with lower diatom diversity (raw: rho = .92, p<.001; detrended, r = .6, p = .01). Diatoms were 20% less diverse in the early late Miocene, when temperatures and pCO2 were only moderately higher than today. Diversity is strongly correlated to both ∂(13)C and pCO2 over the last 15 my (for both: r>.9, detrended r>.6, all p<.001), but only weakly over the earlier Cenozoic, suggesting increasingly strong linkage of diatom and climate evolution in the Neogene. Our results suggest that many living marine planktonic diatom species may be at risk of extinction in future warm oceans, with an unknown but potentially substantial negative impact on the ocean biologic pump and oceanic carbon sequestration. We cannot however extrapolate our my-scale correlations with generic climate proxies to anthropogenic time-scales of warming without additional species-specific information on proximate ecologic controls.}, }
@article {pmid24464875, year = {2014}, author = {Haynes, KJ and Allstadt, AJ and Klimetzek, D}, title = {Forest defoliator outbreaks under climate change: effects on the frequency and severity of outbreaks of five pine insect pests.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {2004-2018}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12506}, pmid = {24464875}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Food Chain ; Forestry ; *Forests ; Germany ; Hymenoptera/*physiology ; Moths/*physiology ; Pinus/growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {To identify general patterns in the effects of climate change on the outbreak dynamics of forest-defoliating insect species, we examined a 212-year record (1800-2011) of outbreaks of five pine-defoliating species (Bupalus piniarius, Panolis flammea, Lymantria monacha, Dendrolimus pini, and Diprion pini) in Bavaria, Germany for the evidence of climate-driven changes in the severity, cyclicity, and frequency of outbreaks. We also accounted for historical changes in forestry practices and examined effects of past insecticide use to suppress outbreaks. Analysis of relationships between severity or occurrence of outbreaks and detrended measures of temperature and precipitation revealed a mixture of positive and negative relationships between temperature and outbreak activity. Two moth species (P. flammea and Dendrolimus pini) exhibited lower outbreak activity following years or decades of unusually warm temperatures, whereas a sawfly (Diprion pini), for which voltinism is influenced by temperature, displayed increased outbreak occurrence in years of high summer temperatures. We detected only one apparent effect of precipitation, which showed Dendrolimus pini outbreaks tending to follow drought. Wavelet analysis of outbreak time series suggested climate change may be associated with collapse of L. monacha and Dendrolimus pini outbreak cycles (loss of cyclicity and discontinuation of outbreaks, respectively), but high-frequency cycles for B. piniarius and P. flammea in the late 1900s. Regional outbreak severity was generally not related to past suppression efforts (area treated with insecticides). Recent shifts in forestry practices affecting tree species composition roughly coincided with high-frequency outbreak cycles in B. piniarius and P. flammea but are unlikely to explain the detected relationships between climate and outbreak severity or collapses of outbreak cycles. Our results highlight both individualistic responses of different pine-defoliating species to climate changes and some patterns that are consistent across defoliator species in this and other forest systems, including collapsing of population cycles.}, }
@article {pmid24464855, year = {2014}, author = {Dueri, S and Bopp, L and Maury, O}, title = {Projecting the impacts of climate change on skipjack tuna abundance and spatial distribution.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {742-753}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12460}, pmid = {24464855}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; *Tuna/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate-induced changes in the physical, chemical, and biological environment are expected to increasingly stress marine ecosystems, with important consequences for fisheries exploitation. Here, we use the APECOSM-E numerical model (Apex Predator ECOSystem Model - Estimation) to evaluate the future impacts of climate change on the physiology, spatial distribution, and abundance of skipjack tuna, the worldwide most fished species of tropical tuna. The main novelties of our approach lie in the mechanistic link between environmental factors, metabolic rates, and behavioral responses and in the fully three dimensional representation of habitat and population abundance. Physical and biogeochemical fields used to force the model are provided by the last generation of the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model run from 1990 to 2100 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario (RCP8.5). Our simulations show significant changes in the spatial distribution of skipjack tuna suitable habitat, as well as in their population abundance. The model projects deterioration of skipjack habitat in most tropical waters and an improvement of habitat at higher latitudes. The primary driver of habitat changes is ocean warming, followed by food density changes. Our projections show an increase of global skipjack biomass between 2010 and 2050 followed by a marked decrease between 2050 and 2095. Spawning rates are consistent with population trends, showing that spawning depends primarily on the adult biomass. On the other hand, growth rates display very smooth temporal changes, suggesting that the ability of skipjack to keep high metabolic rates in the changing environment is generally effective. Uncertainties related to our model spatial resolution, to the lack or simplification of key processes and to the climate forcings are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid24464198, year = {2014}, author = {Vindenes, Y and Edeline, E and Ohlberger, J and Langangen, O and Winfield, IJ and Stenseth, NC and Vøllestad, LA}, title = {Effects of climate change on trait-based dynamics of a top predator in freshwater ecosystems.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {183}, number = {2}, pages = {243-256}, doi = {10.1086/674610}, pmid = {24464198}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Esocidae/*physiology ; Female ; Fertility ; Lakes ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Predicted universal responses of ectotherms to climate warming include increased maximum population growth rate and changes in body size through the temperature-size rule. However, the mechanisms that would underlie these predicted responses are not clear. Many studies have focused on proximate mechanisms of physiological processes affecting individual growth. One can also consider ultimate mechanisms involving adaptive explanations by evaluating temperature effects on different vital rates across the life history and using the information in a population dynamical model. Here, we combine long-term data for a top predator in freshwater ecosystems (pike; Esox lucius) with a stochastic integral projection model to analyze concurrent effects of temperature on vital rates, body size, and population dynamics. As predicted, the net effect of warming on population growth rate (fitness) is positive, but the thermal sensitivity of this rate is highly size- and vital rate-dependent. These results are not sensitive to increasing variability in temperature. Somatic growth follows the temperature-size rule, and our results support an adaptive explanation for this response. The stable length structure of the population shifts with warming toward an increased proportion of medium-sized but a reduced proportion of small and large individuals. This study highlights how demographic approaches can help reveal complex underlying mechanisms for population responses to warming.}, }
@article {pmid24463253, year = {2014}, author = {Foulds, SA and Brewer, PA and Macklin, MG and Haresign, W and Betson, RE and Rassner, SM}, title = {Flood-related contamination in catchments affected by historical metal mining: an unexpected and emerging hazard of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {476-477}, number = {}, pages = {165-180}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.079}, pmid = {24463253}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Floods ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Metals/*analysis ; *Mining ; Soil/chemistry ; Soil Pollutants/*analysis ; Wales ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; }, abstract = {Floods in catchments affected by historical metal mining result in the remobilisation of large quantities of contaminated sediment from floodplain soils and old mine workings. This poses a significant threat to agricultural production and is preventing many European river catchments achieving a 'good chemical and ecological status', as demanded by the Water Framework Directive. Analysis of overbank sediment following widespread flooding in west Wales in June 2012 showed that flood sediments were contaminated above guideline pollution thresholds, in some samples by a factor of 82. Most significantly, silage produced from flood affected fields was found to contain up to 1900 mg kg(-1) of sediment associated Pb, which caused cattle poisoning and mortality. As a consequence of climate related increases in flooding this problem is likely to continue and intensify. Management of contaminated catchments requires a geomorphological approach to understand the spatial and temporal cycling of metals through the fluvial system.}, }
@article {pmid24460994, year = {2014}, author = {Purcell, R and McGirr, J}, title = {Preparing rural general practitioners and health services for climate change and extreme weather.}, journal = {The Australian journal of rural health}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {8-14}, doi = {10.1111/ajr.12075}, pmid = {24460994}, issn = {1440-1584}, mesh = {Adult ; *Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *General Practitioners ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; Male ; New South Wales ; *Primary Health Care ; Public Health ; *Rural Health ; Rural Health Services ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To determine the knowledge and recommendations of rural general practitioners (GPs) in regard to climate change and the preparedness of rural health services for its health impacts.<br><br>DESIGN: A quantitative descriptive survey distributed in paper-based or electronic form.<br><br>SETTING: Rural Southwest of New South Wales.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: GPs and GP registrars working in Rural Remote Metropolitan Areas (RRMA) 3-7.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Questionnaire responses analysed with descriptive statistics and inferential tests.<br><br>RESULTS: While the majority of respondents agreed with statements supporting climate science and the impact of climate change on health, between 24% and 34% of respondents were unsure or did not agree. Furthermore, between 33% and 44% of GP respondents working in RRMA 5-7 were unsure or did not agree that their health service had the capacity to provide an initial response to an extreme weather event (P&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.01). Strengthening health service acute disaster capacity response was a preferred adaptation strategy for improving health service preparedness of 61% of participants. A greater proportion of GPs were supportive of their role as advocates on general health issues (80%) compared with extreme weather events (60%) or climate change and health (63.5%) (P&#x2009;&#x2264;&#x2009;0.01). For professional development and education, 71% preferred a locally based workshop or seminar.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the need to consider closely the views of GPs when preparing rural communities for the possible health effects of climate change. Findings indicate concern for health service preparedness, particularly in smaller rural communities. Further development of disaster response planning and communication is needed.}, }
@article {pmid24458692, year = {2014}, author = {Gilioli, G and Pasquali, S and Parisi, S and Winter, S}, title = {Modelling the potential distribution of Bemisia tabaci in Europe in light of the climate change scenario.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {70}, number = {10}, pages = {1611-1623}, doi = {10.1002/ps.3734}, pmid = {24458692}, issn = {1526-4998}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Hemiptera/*physiology ; *Introduced Species ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Bemisia tabaci is a serious pest of agricultural and horticultural crops in greenhouses and fields around the world. This paper deals with the distribution of the pest under field conditions. In Europe, the insect is currently found in coastal regions of Mediterranean countries where it is subject to quarantine regulations. To assess the risk presented by B. tabaci to Europe, the area of potential establishment of this insect, in light of the climate change scenario, was assessed by a temperature-dependent physiologically based demographic model (PBDM).<br><br>RESULTS: The simulated potential distribution under current climate conditions has been successfully validated with the available field records of B. tabaci in Europe. Considering climate change scenarios of +1 and +2 &#xb0;C, range expansion by B. tabaci is predicted, particularly in Spain, France, Italy, Greece and along the Adriatic coast of the Balkans. Nonetheless, even under the scenario of +2 &#xb0;C, northern European countries are not likely to be at risk of B. tabaci establishment because of climatic limitations.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Model validation with field observations and evaluation of uncertainties associated with model parameter variability support the reliability of model results. The PBDM developed here can be applied to other organisms and offers significant advantages for assessing the potential distribution of invasive species.}, }
@article {pmid24457919, year = {2014}, author = {Lovegrove, BG and Canale, C and Levesque, D and Fluch, G and Reháková-Petrů, M and Ruf, T}, title = {Are tropical small mammals physiologically vulnerable to Arrhenius effects and climate change?.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {87}, number = {1}, pages = {30-45}, doi = {10.1086/673313}, pmid = {24457919}, issn = {1537-5293}, mesh = {Animals ; *Basal Metabolism ; *Body Size ; Cheirogaleidae/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Eulipotyphla/*physiology ; Female ; *Heat-Shock Response ; Madagascar ; Male ; Philippines ; Tarsiidae/*physiology ; Temperature ; *Torpor ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {There is some urgency in the necessity to incorporate physiological data into mechanistic, trait-based, demographic climate change models. Physiological responses at the individual level provide the mechanistic link between environmental changes and individual performances and hence population dynamics. Here we consider the causal relationship between ambient temperature (Ta) and metabolic rate (MR), namely, the Arrhenius effect, which is directly affected by global warming through increases in average global air temperatures and the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. We measured and collated data for several small, free-ranging tropical arboreal mammals and evaluated their vulnerability to Arrhenius effects and putative heat stress associated with climate change. Skin temperatures (Tskin) were obtained from free-ranging tarsiers (Tarsius syrichta) on Bohol Island, Philippines. Core body temperature (Tb) was obtained from the greater hedgehog tenrec (Setifer setosus) and the gray brown mouse lemur (Microcebus ravelobensis) from Ankarafantsika, Madagascar. Tskin for another mouse lemur, Microcebus griseorufus, was obtained from the literature. All four species showed evidence of hyperthermia during the daytime rest phase in the form of either Tskin or Tb that was higher than the normothermic Tb during the nighttime active phase. Potentially, tropical arboreal mammals with the lowest MRs and Tb, such as tarsiers, are the most vulnerable to sustained heat stress because their Tb is already close to Ta. Climate change may involve increases in MRs due to Arrhenius effects, especially during the rest phase or during torpor and hibernation. The most likely outcome of increased Arrhenius effects with climate change will be an increase in energy expenditure at the expense of other critical functions such as reproduction or growth and will thus affect fitness. However, we propose that these hypothetical Arrhenius costs can be, and in some species probably are, offset by the use of hyperthermic daily torpor, that is, hypometabolism at high Ta.}, }
@article {pmid24457918, year = {2014}, author = {Stitt, BC and Burness, G and Burgomaster, KA and Currie, S and McDermid, JL and Wilson, CC}, title = {Intraspecific variation in thermal tolerance and acclimation capacity in brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis): physiological implications for climate change.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {87}, number = {1}, pages = {15-29}, doi = {10.1086/675259}, pmid = {24457918}, issn = {1537-5293}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Basal Metabolism ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fish Proteins/*genetics/metabolism ; Geography ; HSC70 Heat-Shock Proteins/genetics/metabolism ; HSP70 Heat-Shock Proteins/*genetics/metabolism ; *Heat-Shock Response ; Hot Temperature ; Organ Specificity ; Species Specificity ; *Swimming ; Trout/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Cold-water fishes are becoming increasingly vulnerable as changing thermal conditions threaten their future sustainability. Thermal stress and habitat loss from increasing water temperatures are expected to impact population viability, particularly for inland populations with limited adaptive resources. Although the long-term persistence of cold-adapted species will depend on their ability to cope with and adapt to changing thermal conditions, very little is known about the scope and variation of thermal tolerance within and among conspecific populations and evolutionary lineages. We studied the upper thermal tolerance and capacity for acclimation in three captive populations of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from different ancestral thermal environments. Populations differed in their upper thermal tolerance and capacity for acclimation, consistent with their ancestry: the northernmost strain (Lake Nipigon) had the lowest thermal tolerance, while the strain with the most southern ancestry (Hill's Lake) had the highest thermal tolerance. Standard metabolic rate increased following acclimation to warm temperatures, but the response to acclimation varied among strains, suggesting that climatic warming may have differential effects across populations. Swimming performance varied among strains and among acclimation temperatures, but strains responded in a similar way to temperature acclimation. To explore potential physiological mechanisms underlying intraspecific differences in thermal tolerance, we quantified inducible and constitutive heat shock proteins (HSP70 and HSC70, respectively). HSPs were associated with variation in thermal tolerance among strains and acclimation temperatures; HSP70 in cardiac and white muscle tissues exhibited similar patterns, whereas expression in hepatic tissue varied among acclimation temperatures but not strains. Taken together, these results suggest that populations of brook trout will vary in their ability to cope with a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid24455138, year = {2013}, author = {King, DA and Bachelet, DM and Symstad, AJ}, title = {Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {15}, pages = {5076-5097}, pmid = {24455138}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.}, }
@article {pmid24454793, year = {2014}, author = {Andresen, LC and Dungait, JA and Bol, R and Selsted, MB and Ambus, P and Michelsen, A}, title = {Bacteria and fungi respond differently to multifactorial climate change in a temperate heathland, traced with 13C-glycine and FACE CO2.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e85070}, pmid = {24454793}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Bacterial Physiological Phenomena ; Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry ; Carbon Isotopes ; *Climate Change ; Fungi/*physiology ; Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry ; Glycine/*chemistry ; Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {It is vital to understand responses of soil microorganisms to predicted climate changes, as these directly control soil carbon (C) dynamics. The rate of turnover of soil organic carbon is mediated by soil microorganisms whose activity may be affected by climate change. After one year of multifactorial climate change treatments, at an undisturbed temperate heathland, soil microbial community dynamics were investigated by injection of a very small concentration (5.12 µg C g(-1) soil) of (13)C-labeled glycine ((13)C2, 99 atom %) to soils in situ. Plots were treated with elevated temperature (+1°C, T), summer drought (D) and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (510 ppm [CO2]), as well as combined treatments (TD, TCO2, DCO2 and TDCO2). The (13)C enrichment of respired CO2 and of phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) was determined after 24 h. (13)C-glycine incorporation into the biomarker PLFAs for specific microbial groups (Gram positive bacteria, Gram negative bacteria, actinobacteria and fungi) was quantified using gas chromatography-combustion-stable isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-C-IRMS). Gram positive bacteria opportunistically utilized the freshly added glycine substrate, i.e. incorporated (13)C in all treatments, whereas fungi had minor or no glycine derived (13)C-enrichment, hence slowly reacting to a new substrate. The effects of elevated CO2 did suggest increased direct incorporation of glycine in microbial biomass, in particular in G(+) bacteria, in an ecosystem subjected to elevated CO2. Warming decreased the concentration of PLFAs in general. The FACE CO2 was (13)C-depleted (δ(13)C = 12.2‰) compared to ambient (δ(13)C = ∼-8‰), and this enabled observation of the integrated longer term responses of soil microorganisms to the FACE over one year. All together, the bacterial (and not fungal) utilization of glycine indicates substrate preference and resource partitioning in the microbial community, and therefore suggests a diversified response pattern to future changes in substrate availability and climatic factors.}, }
@article {pmid24454552, year = {2014}, author = {Franks, SJ and Weber, JJ and Aitken, SN}, title = {Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {123-139}, pmid = {24454552}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species' life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24454551, year = {2014}, author = {Reusch, TB}, title = {Climate change in the oceans: evolutionary versus phenotypically plastic responses of marine animals and plants.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {104-122}, pmid = {24454551}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {I summarize marine studies on plastic versus adaptive responses to global change. Due to the lack of time series, this review focuses largely on the potential for adaptive evolution in marine animals and plants. The approaches were mainly synchronic comparisons of phenotypically divergent populations, substituting spatial contrasts in temperature or CO2 environments for temporal changes, or in assessments of adaptive genetic diversity within populations for traits important under global change. The available literature is biased towards gastropods, crustaceans, cnidarians and macroalgae. Focal traits were mostly environmental tolerances, which correspond to phenotypic buffering, a plasticity type that maintains a functional phenotype despite external disturbance. Almost all studies address coastal species that are already today exposed to fluctuations in temperature, pH and oxygen levels. Recommendations for future research include (i) initiation and analyses of observational and experimental temporal studies encompassing diverse phenotypic traits (including diapausing cues, dispersal traits, reproductive timing, morphology) (ii) quantification of nongenetic trans-generational effects along with components of additive genetic variance (iii) adaptive changes in microbe-host associations under the holobiont model in response to global change (iv) evolution of plasticity patterns under increasingly fluctuating environments and extreme conditions and (v) joint consideration of demography and evolutionary adaptation in evolutionary rescue approaches.}, }
@article {pmid24454550, year = {2014}, author = {Urban, MC and Richardson, JL and Freidenfelds, NA}, title = {Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {88-103}, pmid = {24454550}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes through time or space. Plasticity had a clear and ubiquitous role in promoting phenotypic changes in response to climate variation. For adaptive evolution, we found no direct evidence for evolution of amphibians or reptiles in response to climate change over time. However, we found many studies that documented adaptive responses to climate along spatial gradients. Plasticity provided a mixture of adaptive and maladaptive responses to climate change, highlighting that plasticity frequently, but not always, could ameliorate climate change. Based on our review, we advocate for more experiments that survey genetic changes through time in response to climate change. Overall, plastic and genetic variation in amphibians and reptiles could buffer some of the formidable threats from climate change, but large uncertainties remain owing to limited data.}, }
@article {pmid24454549, year = {2014}, author = {Crozier, LG and Hutchings, JA}, title = {Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change in fish.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {68-87}, pmid = {24454549}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {The physical and ecological 'fingerprints' of anthropogenic climate change over the past century are now well documented in many environments and taxa. We reviewed the evidence for phenotypic responses to recent climate change in fish. Changes in the timing of migration and reproduction, age at maturity, age at juvenile migration, growth, survival and fecundity were associated primarily with changes in temperature. Although these traits can evolve rapidly, only two studies attributed phenotypic changes formally to evolutionary mechanisms. The correlation-based methods most frequently employed point largely to 'fine-grained' population responses to environmental variability (i.e. rapid phenotypic changes relative to generation time), consistent with plastic mechanisms. Ultimately, many species will likely adapt to long-term warming trends overlaid on natural climate oscillations. Considering the strong plasticity in all traits studied, we recommend development and expanded use of methods capable of detecting evolutionary change, such as the long term study of selection coefficients and temporal shifts in reaction norms, and increased attention to forecasting adaptive change in response to the synergistic interactions of the multiple selection pressures likely to be associated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24454548, year = {2014}, author = {Schilthuizen, M and Kellermann, V}, title = {Contemporary climate change and terrestrial invertebrates: evolutionary versus plastic changes.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {56-67}, pmid = {24454548}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {To forecast the responses of species to future climate change, an understanding of the ability of species to adapt to long-term shifts in temperature is crucial. We present a review on evolutionary adaptation and phenotypic plasticity of temperature-related traits in terrestrial invertebrates. The evidence for adaptive evolution in melanization is good, but we caution that genetic determination needs to be tested in each individual species, and complex genetic correlations may exist. For phenological traits allochronic data sets provide powerful means to track climate-induced changes; however, rarely are responses deconstructed into evolutionary and plastic responses. Laboratory studies suggest climate change responses in these traits will be driven by both. For stress resistance, the evidence for shifts in traits is poor. Studies leaning heavily on Drosophila have demonstrated potential limits to evolutionary responses in desiccation and heat resistance. Quantifying the capacity for these species to respond plastically and extending this work to other taxa will be an important next step. We also note that, although not strictly speaking a species trait, the response of endosymbionts to heat stress requires further study. Finally, while clearly genetic, and possibly adaptive, the anonymous nature of latitudinal shifts in clines of genetic markers in Drosophila prevents further interpretation.}, }
@article {pmid24454547, year = {2014}, author = {Stoks, R and Geerts, AN and De Meester, L}, title = {Evolutionary and plastic responses of freshwater invertebrates to climate change: realized patterns and future potential.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {42-55}, pmid = {24454547}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {We integrated the evidence for evolutionary and plastic trait changes in situ in response to climate change in freshwater invertebrates (aquatic insects and zooplankton). The synthesis on the trait changes in response to the expected reductions in hydroperiod and increases in salinity indicated little evidence for adaptive, plastic, and genetic trait changes and for local adaptation. With respect to responses to temperature, there are many studies on temporal trait changes in phenology and body size in the wild that are believed to be driven by temperature increases, but there is a general lack of rigorous demonstration whether these trait changes are genetically based, adaptive, and causally driven by climate change. Current proof for genetic trait changes under climate change in freshwater invertebrates stems from a limited set of common garden experiments replicated in time. Experimental thermal evolution experiments and common garden warming experiments associated with space-for-time substitutions along latitudinal gradients indicate that besides genetic changes, also phenotypic plasticity and evolution of plasticity are likely to contribute to the observed phenotypic changes under climate change in aquatic invertebrates. Apart from plastic and genetic thermal adjustments, also genetic photoperiod adjustments are widespread and may even dominate the observed phenological shifts.}, }
@article {pmid24454546, year = {2014}, author = {Boutin, S and Lane, JE}, title = {Climate change and mammals: evolutionary versus plastic responses.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {29-41}, pmid = {24454546}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Phenotypic plasticity and microevolution are the two primary means by which organisms respond adaptively to local conditions. While these mechanisms are not mutually exclusive, their relative magnitudes will influence both the rate of, and ability to sustain, phenotypic responses to climate change. We review accounts of recent phenotypic changes in wild mammal populations with the purpose of critically evaluating the following: (i) whether climate change has been identified as the causal mechanism producing the observed change; (ii) whether the change is adaptive; and (iii) the relative influences of evolution and/or phenotypic plasticity underlying the change. The available data for mammals are scant. We found twelve studies that report changes in phenology, body weight or litter size. In all cases, the observed response was primarily due to plasticity. Only one study (of advancing parturition dates in American red squirrels) provided convincing evidence of contemporary evolution. Subsequently, however, climate change has been shown to not be the causal mechanism underlying this shift. We also summarize studies that have shown evolutionary potential (i.e. the trait is heritable and/or under selection) in traits with putative associations with climate change and discuss future directions that need to be undertaken before a conclusive demonstration of plastic or evolutionary responses to climate change in wild mammals can be made.}, }
@article {pmid24454545, year = {2014}, author = {Charmantier, A and Gienapp, P}, title = {Climate change and timing of avian breeding and migration: evolutionary versus plastic changes.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {15-28}, pmid = {24454545}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {There are multiple observations around the globe showing that in many avian species, both the timing of migration and breeding have advanced, due to warmer springs. Here, we review the literature to disentangle the actions of evolutionary changes in response to selection induced by climate change versus changes due to individual plasticity, that is, the capacity of an individual to adjust its phenology to environmental variables. Within the abundant literature on climate change effects on bird phenology, only a small fraction of studies are based on individual data, yet individual data are required to quantify the relative importance of plastic versus evolutionary responses. While plasticity seems common and often adaptive, no study so far has provided direct evidence for an evolutionary response of bird phenology to current climate change. This assessment leads us to notice the alarming lack of tests for microevolutionary changes in bird phenology in response to climate change, in contrast with the abundant claims on this issue. In short, at present we cannot draw reliable conclusions on the processes underlying the observed patterns of advanced phenology in birds. Rapid improvements in techniques for gathering and analysing individual data offer exciting possibilities that should encourage research activity to fill this knowledge gap.}, }
@article {pmid24454544, year = {2014}, author = {Merilä, J and Hendry, AP}, title = {Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {1-14}, pmid = {24454544}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Many studies have recorded phenotypic changes in natural populations and attributed them to climate change. However, controversy and uncertainty has arisen around three levels of inference in such studies. First, it has proven difficult to conclusively distinguish whether phenotypic changes are genetically based or the result of phenotypic plasticity. Second, whether or not the change is adaptive is usually assumed rather than tested. Third, inferences that climate change is the specific causal agent have rarely involved the testing - and exclusion - of other potential drivers. We here review the various ways in which the above inferences have been attempted, and evaluate the strength of support that each approach can provide. This methodological assessment sets the stage for 11 accompanying review articles that attempt comprehensive syntheses of what is currently known - and not known - about responses to climate change in a variety of taxa and in theory. Summarizing and relying on the results of these reviews, we arrive at the conclusion that evidence for genetic adaptation to climate change has been found in some systems, but is still relatively scarce. Most importantly, it is clear that more studies are needed - and these must employ better inferential methods - before general conclusions can be drawn. Overall, we hope that the present paper and special issue provide inspiration for future research and guidelines on best practices for its execution.}, }
@article {pmid24453007, year = {2014}, author = {Spence, LA and Liancourt, P and Boldgiv, B and Petraitis, PS and Casper, BB}, title = {Climate change and grazing interact to alter flowering patterns in the Mongolian steppe.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {175}, number = {1}, pages = {251-260}, pmid = {24453007}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Flowers/*physiology ; *Herbivory ; Mongolia ; Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Socio-economic changes threaten nomadic pastoralism across the world, changing traditional grazing patterns. Such land-use changes will co-occur with climate change, and while both are potentially important determinants of future ecosystem functioning, interactions between them remain poorly understood. We investigated the effects of grazing by large herbivores and climate manipulation using open-top chambers (OTCs) on flower number and flowering species richness in mountain steppe of northern Mongolia. In this region, sedentary pastoralism is replacing nomadic pastoralism, and temperature is predicted to increase. Grazing and OTCs interacted to affect forb flowering richness, which was reduced following grazing removal, and reduced by OTCs in grazed plots only. This interaction was directly linked to the soil moisture and temperature environments created by the experimental treatments: most species flowered when both soil moisture and temperature levels were high (i.e. in grazed plots without OTCs), while fewer species flowered when either temperature, or moisture, or both, were low. Removal of grazing increased the average number of graminoid flowers produced at peak flowering in Year 1, but otherwise grazing removal and OTCs did not affect community-level flower composition. Of four abundant graminoid species examined individually, three showed increased flower number with grazing removal, while one showed the reverse. Four abundant forb species showed no significant response to either treatment. Our results highlight how climate change effects on mountain steppe could be contingent on land-use, and that studies designed to understand ecosystem response to climate change should incorporate co-occurring drivers of change, such as altered grazing regimes.}, }
@article {pmid24452253, year = {2013}, author = {Ebi, KL}, title = {Health in the new scenarios for climate change research.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {30-46}, pmid = {24452253}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Public Health/*trends ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible.}, }
@article {pmid24452252, year = {2013}, author = {Braks, M and van Ginkel, R and Wint, W and Sedda, L and Sprong, H}, title = {Climate change and public health policy: translating the science.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {13-29}, pmid = {24452252}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Culicidae/*physiology/virology ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*physiology/virology ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character.}, }
@article {pmid24449019, year = {2014}, author = {McCain, CM and King, SR}, title = {Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {1760-1769}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12499}, pmid = {24449019}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Behavior, Animal ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Geography ; Mammals/*physiology ; Motor Activity/*physiology ; North America ; Phenotype ; Phylogeny ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Model predictions of extinction risks from anthropogenic climate change are dire, but still overly simplistic. To reliably predict at-risk species we need to know which species are currently responding, which are not, and what traits are mediating the responses. For mammals, we have yet to identify overarching physiological, behavioral, or biogeographic traits determining species' responses to climate change, but they must exist. To date, 73 mammal species in North America and eight additional species worldwide have been assessed for responses to climate change, including local extirpations, range contractions and shifts, decreased abundance, phenological shifts, morphological or genetic changes. Only 52% of those species have responded as expected, 7% responded opposite to expectations, and the remaining 41% have not responded. Which mammals are and are not responding to climate change is mediated predominantly by body size and activity times (phylogenetic multivariate logistic regressions, P < 0.0001). Large mammals respond more, for example, an elk is 27 times more likely to respond to climate change than a shrew. Obligate diurnal and nocturnal mammals are more than twice as likely to respond as mammals with flexible activity times (P < 0.0001). Among the other traits examined, species with higher latitudinal and elevational ranges were more likely to respond to climate change in some analyses, whereas hibernation, heterothermy, burrowing, nesting, and study location did not influence responses. These results indicate that some mammal species can behaviorally escape climate change whereas others cannot, analogous to paleontology's climate sheltering hypothesis. Including body size and activity flexibility traits into future extinction risk forecasts should substantially improve their predictive utility for conservation and management.}, }
@article {pmid24448482, year = {2014}, author = {McDonnell, TC and Belyazid, S and Sullivan, TJ and Sverdrup, H and Bowman, WD and Porter, EM}, title = {Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {187}, number = {}, pages = {55-64}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2013.12.021}, pmid = {24448482}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Colorado ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Models, Biological ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Plant Development/drug effects ; Plants/metabolism ; }, abstract = {To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010-2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1). Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone.}, }
@article {pmid24446429, year = {2014}, author = {Sheppard, CS and Burns, BR and Stanley, MC}, title = {Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {9}, pages = {2800-2814}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12531}, pmid = {24446429}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Araliaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Arecaceae/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Factor Analysis, Statistical ; *Introduced Species ; *Models, Biological ; New Zealand ; Pesticides/toxicity ; Psidium/*growth &amp; development ; Seedlings/drug effects/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced frosts with climate change may provide more suitable habitats and enable the spread of these species.}, }
@article {pmid24440587, year = {2014}, author = {Archie, KM and Dilling, L and Milford, JB and Pampel, FC}, title = {Unpacking the 'information barrier': comparing perspectives on information as a barrier to climate change adaptation in the interior mountain West.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {133}, number = {}, pages = {397-410}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.12.015}, pmid = {24440587}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Information Services ; United States ; }, abstract = {Inadequate information has been repeatedly identified as a barrier to climate change adaptation planning and implementation. However less is known about how information functions as a barrier, and to what degree it prevents adaptation compared to other perceived barriers. In addition, the role of institutional context in mediating the demand for information in the context of adaptation has been less well studied. This paper helps to clarify the role that information plays in adaptation planning for two sectors of public employees working at similar scales, in similar locations, with similar challenges. We conducted surveys and semi-structured interviews to investigate the demand for information in support of adaptation implementation and planning from US federal public lands managers and municipal officials in the US interior West. We found that federal managers and municipal officials both consulted information frequently for decision making, and while both groups indicated that lack of information at relevant scales was a barrier to adaptation planning, this was seen as a much stronger barrier for federal managers than for communities. Uncertainty of information was raised as an issue, but results were mixed on whether or not this acted as a strong barrier. While peer-reviewed publications were seen as the "best available science," and correlated with adaptation planning, they were not accessed directly as frequently as other sources of information, including colleagues, the internet and reports. The strong connection between communities and adjacent federal lands may provide an opportunity for networking that could facilitate the flow of information relevant for adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid24437609, year = {2014}, author = {van Geldern, R and Kuhlemann, J and Schiebel, R and Taubald, H and Barth, JA}, title = {Stable water isotope patterns in a climate change hotspot: the isotope hydrology framework of Corsica (western Mediterranean).}, journal = {Isotopes in environmental and health studies}, volume = {50}, number = {2}, pages = {184-200}, doi = {10.1080/10256016.2013.839559}, pmid = {24437609}, issn = {1477-2639}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Deuterium/*analysis ; France ; Hydrology ; Lakes/*chemistry ; Natural Springs/*chemistry ; Oxygen Isotopes/*analysis ; Rivers/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean is regarded as a region of intense climate change. To better understand future climate change, this area has been the target of several palaeoclimate studies which also studied stable isotope proxies that are directly linked to the stable isotope composition of water, such as tree rings, tooth enamel or speleothems. For such work, it is also essential to establish an isotope hydrology framework of the region of interest. Surface waters from streams and lakes as well as groundwater from springs on the island of Corsica were sampled between 2003 and 2009 for their oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions. Isotope values from lake waters were enriched in heavier isotopes and define a local evaporation line (LEL). On the other hand, stream and spring waters reflect the isotope composition of local precipitation in the catchment. The intersection of the LEL and the linear fit of the spring and stream waters reflect the mean isotope composition of the annual precipitation (δP) with values of-8.6(± 0.2) ‰ for δ(18)O and-58(± 2) ‰ for δ(2)H. This value is also a good indicator of the average isotope composition of the local groundwater in the island. Surface water samples reflect the altitude isotope effect with a value of-0.17(± 0.02) ‰ per 100 m elevation for oxygen isotopes. At Vizzavona Pass in central Corsica, water samples from two catchments within a lateral distance of only a few hundred metres showed unexpected but systematic differences in their stable isotope composition. At this specific location, the direction of exposure seems to be an important factor. The differences were likely caused by isotopic enrichment during recharge in warm weather conditions in south-exposed valley flanks compared to the opposite, north-exposed valley flanks.}, }
@article {pmid24435413, year = {2014}, author = {Mathias, J}, title = {Doctors and climate change: "you played at rapid sequence induction while my world burned".}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {348}, number = {}, pages = {g119}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.g119}, pmid = {24435413}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Burnout, Professional/*etiology/psychology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Stress, Physiological ; }, }
@article {pmid24433175, year = {2014}, author = {McInerney, CE and Maurice, L and Robertson, AL and Knight, LR and Arnscheidt, J and Venditti, C and Dooley, JS and Mathers, T and Matthijs, S and Eriksson, K and Proudlove, GS and Hänfling, B}, title = {The ancient Britons: groundwater fauna survived extreme climate change over tens of millions of years across NW Europe.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {1153-1166}, doi = {10.1111/mec.12664}, pmid = {24433175}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Amphipoda/*classification/genetics ; Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Geography ; Groundwater ; Ireland ; Molecular Sequence Data ; *Phylogeny ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Global climate changes during the Cenozoic (65.5-0 Ma) caused major biological range shifts and extinctions. In northern Europe, for example, a pattern of few endemics and the dominance of wide-ranging species is thought to have been determined by the Pleistocene (2.59-0.01 Ma) glaciations. This study, in contrast, reveals an ancient subsurface fauna endemic to Britain and Ireland. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic approach, we found that two species of stygobitic invertebrates (genus Niphargus) have not only survived the entire Pleistocene in refugia but have persisted for at least 19.5 million years. Other Niphargus species form distinct cryptic taxa that diverged from their nearest continental relative between 5.6 and 1.0 Ma. The study also reveals an unusual biogeographical pattern in the Niphargus genus. It originated in north-west Europe approximately 87 Ma and underwent a gradual range expansion. Phylogenetic diversity and species age are highest in north-west Europe, suggesting resilience to extreme climate change and strongly contrasting the patterns seen in surface fauna. However, species diversity is highest in south-east Europe, indicating that once the genus spread to these areas (approximately 25 Ma), geomorphological and climatic conditions enabled much higher diversification. Our study highlights that groundwater ecosystems provide an important contribution to biodiversity and offers insight into the interactions between biological and climatic processes.}, }
@article {pmid24432931, year = {2014}, author = {Hess, JJ and Schramm, PJ and Luber, G}, title = {Public health and climate change adaptation at the federal level: one agency's response to Executive Order 13514.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {104}, number = {3}, pages = {e22-30}, pmid = {24432931}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. ; *Climate Change ; Federal Government ; *Government Regulation ; Health Plan Implementation/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/methods ; *Public Health ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change will likely have adverse human health effects that require federal agency involvement in adaptation activities. In 2009, President Obama issued Executive Order 13514, Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance. The order required federal agencies to develop and implement climate change adaptation plans. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as part of a larger Department of Health and Human Services response to climate change, is developing such plans. We provide background on Executive Orders, outline tenets of climate change adaptation, discuss public health adaptation planning at both the Department of Health and Human Services and the CDC, and outline possible future CDC efforts. We also consider how these activities may be better integrated with other adaptation activities that manage emerging health threats posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24429612, year = {2014}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Climate change: The case of the missing heat.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {505}, number = {7483}, pages = {276-278}, pmid = {24429612}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; *Hot Temperature ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pacific Ocean ; Seawater ; Solar Activity ; *Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid24429119, year = {2013}, author = {Furlow, B}, title = {Food production and obesity linked to climate change.}, journal = {The Lancet. Respiratory medicine}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {187-188}, doi = {10.1016/S2213-2600(13)70068-7}, pmid = {24429119}, issn = {2213-2600}, mesh = {Agriculture/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/methods ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*trends ; *Food Industry/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/methods ; Food Quality ; Forecasting ; Government Regulation ; Humans ; *Obesity/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Social Control Policies ; }, }
@article {pmid24428826, year = {2013}, author = {Waldock, J and Parham, PE and Lelieveld, J and Christophides, GK}, title = {Climate and human health: the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases, Paphos, Cyprus (17-19 October 2012).}, journal = {Pathogens and global health}, volume = {107}, number = {8}, pages = {387-392}, doi = {10.1179/2047772413Z.000000000161}, pmid = {24428826}, issn = {2047-7732}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; Global Health ; Humans ; Insecta/*growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid24427750, year = {2013}, author = {Munyuli, MT and Kavuvu, JM and Mulinganya, G and Bwinja, GM}, title = {The Potential Financial Costs of Climate Change on Health of Urban and Rural Citizens: A Case Study of Vibrio cholerae Infections at Bukavu Town, South Kivu Province, Eastern of Democratic Republic of Congo.}, journal = {Iranian journal of public health}, volume = {42}, number = {7}, pages = {707-725}, pmid = {24427750}, issn = {2251-6085}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Cholera epidemics have a recorded history in eastern Congo dating to 1971. A study was conducted to find out the linkage between climate variability/change and cholera outbreak and to assess the related economic cost in the management of cholera in Congo.<br><br>METHODS: This study integrates historical data (20 years) on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in South-Kivu province, eastern Congo.<br><br>RESULTS: Analyses of precipitation and temperatures characteristics in South-Kivu provinces showed that cholera epidemics are closely associated with climatic factors variability. Peaks in Cholera new cases were in synchrony with peaks in rainfalls. Cholera infection cases declined significantly (P<0.05) with the rise in the average temperature. The monthly number of new Cholera cases oscillated between 5 and 450. For every rise of the average temperature by 0.35 &#xb0;C to 0.75 &#xb0;C degree Celsius, and for every change in the rainfall variability by 10-19%, it is likely cholera infection risks will increase by 17 to 25%. The medical cost of treatment of Cholera case infection was found to be of US$50 to 250 per capita. The total costs of Cholera attributable to climate change were found to fall in the range of 4 to 8% of the per capita in annual income in Bukavu town.<br><br>CONCLUSION: It is likely that high rainfall favor multiplication of the bacteria and contamination of water sources by the bacteria (Vibrio cholerae). The consumption of polluted water, promiscuity, population density and lack of hygiene are determinants favoring spread and infection of the bacteria among human beings living in over-crowded environments.}, }
@article {pmid24424295, year = {2014}, author = {Ferrant, S and Caballero, Y and Perrin, J and Gascoin, S and Dewandel, B and Aulong, S and Dazin, F and Ahmed, S and Maréchal, JC}, title = {Projected impacts of climate change on farmers' extraction of groundwater from crystalline aquifers in South India.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {3697}, pmid = {24424295}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Local groundwater levels in South India are falling alarmingly. In the semi-arid crystalline Deccan plateau area, agricultural production relies on groundwater resources. Downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data are used to force a spatially distributed agro-hydrological model in order to evaluate Climate Change (CC) effects on local groundwater extraction (GWE). The slight increase of precipitation may alleviate current groundwater depletion on average, despite the increased evaporation due to warming. Nevertheless, projected climatic extremes create worse GWE shortages than for present climate. Local conditions may lead to opposing impacts on GWE, from increases to decreases (+/-20 mm/year), for a given spatially homogeneous CC forcing. Areas vulnerable to CC in terms of irrigation apportionment are thus identified. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for local characteristics (water harvesting systems and maximal aquifer capacity versus GWE) in developing measures to cope with CC impacts in the South Indian region.}, }
@article {pmid24423229, year = {2014}, author = {Gollan, JR and Ramp, D and Ashcroft, MB}, title = {Assessing the distribution and protection status of two types of cool environment to facilitate their conservation under climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {456-466}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12212}, pmid = {24423229}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; New South Wales ; }, abstract = {Strategies to mitigate climate change can protect different types of cool environments. Two are receiving much attention: protection of ephemeral refuges (i.e., places with low maximum temperatures) and of stable refugia (i.e., places that are cool, have a stable environment, and are isolated). Problematically, they are often treated as equivalents. Careful delineation of their qualities is needed to prevent misdirected conservation initiatives; yet, no one has determined whether protecting one protects the other. We mapped both types of cool environments across a large (∼3.4M ha) mixed-use landscape with a geographic information system and conducted a patch analysis to compare their spatial distributions; examine relations between land use and their size and shape; and assess their current protection status. With a modest, but arbitrary, threshold for demarcating both types of cool environments (i.e., values below the 0.025 quantile) there were 146,523 ha of ephemeral refuge (62,208 ha) and stable refugia (62,319 ha). Ephemeral refuges were generally aggregated at high elevation, and more refuge area occurred in protected areas (55,184 ha) than in unprotected areas (7,024 ha). In contrast, stable refugia were scattered across the landscape, and more stable-refugium area occurred on unprotected (40,135 ha) than on protected land (22,184 ha). Although sensitivity analysis showed that varying the thresholds that define cool environments affected outcomes, it also exposed the challenge of choosing a threshold for strategies to address climate change; there is no single value that is appropriate for all of biodiversity. The degree of overlap between ephemeral refuges and stable refugia revealed that targeting only the former for protection on currently unprotected land would capture ∼17% of stable refugia. Targeting only stable refugia would capture ∼54% of ephemeral refuges. Thus, targeting one type of cool environment did not fully protect the other.}, }
@article {pmid24421221, year = {2014}, author = {Hunter, MD and Kozlov, MV and Itämies, J and Pulliainen, E and Bäck, J and Kyrö, EM and Niemelä, P}, title = {Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {1723-1737}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12529}, pmid = {24421221}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Finland ; Moths/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Taiga ; }, abstract = {Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time-series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life-history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time-series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential deleterious effects of climate change by other ecological forces.}, }
@article {pmid24419665, year = {2014}, author = {Green, D and Minchin, L}, title = {Living on climate-changed country: indigenous health, well-being and climate change in remote Australian communities.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {263-272}, pmid = {24419665}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Community-Institutional Relations ; *Health Policy ; Health Services, Indigenous/organization &amp; administration/*standards ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander/*psychology ; *Rural Health ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Closing the gap between the health and well-being status of Indigenous people living in remote areas of northern Australia and non-Indigenous Australians has long been a major target of federal health policy. With climate projections suggesting large increases in hot spells in desert regions and more extremes in rainfall in other areas of the north, direct and indirect impacts resulting from these changes are likely to further entrench this health and well-being disparity. This paper argues that it is time to explicitly draw on Indigenous definitions of health, which directly address the need to connect individual and community health to the health of their country, in order to develop effective climate adaptation and health strategies. We detail how current health policies overlook this 'missing' dimension of Indigenous connection to country, and why that is likely to be detrimental to the health and well-being of people living in remote communities in a climate-changed future.}, }
@article {pmid24419047, year = {2014}, author = {Physick, W and Cope, M and Lee, S}, title = {The impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality in Sydney.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {1034-1048}, pmid = {24419047}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Feasibility Studies ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Mortality ; New South Wales/epidemiology ; Ozone/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {Coupled global, regional and chemical transport models are now being used with relative-risk functions to determine the impact of climate change on human health. Studies have been carried out for global and regional scales, and in our paper we examine the impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality at the local scale across an urban metropolis (Sydney, Australia). Using three coupled models, with a grid spacing of 3 km for the chemical transport model (CTM), and a mortality relative risk function of 1.0006 per 1 ppb increase in daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentration, we evaluated the change in ozone concentrations and mortality between decades 1996-2005 and 2051-2060. The global model was run with the A2 emissions scenario. As there is currently uncertainty regarding a threshold concentration below which ozone does not impact on mortality, we calculated mortality estimates for the three daily maximum 1-hr ozone concentration thresholds of 0, 25 and 40 ppb. The mortality increase for 2051-2060 ranges from 2.3% for a 0 ppb threshold to 27.3% for a 40 ppb threshold, although the numerical increases differ little. Our modeling approach is able to identify the variation in ozone-related mortality changes at a suburban scale, estimating that climate change could lead to an additional 55 to 65 deaths across Sydney in the decade 2051-2060. Interestingly, the largest increases do not correspond spatially to the largest ozone increases or the densest population centres. The distribution pattern of changes does not seem to vary with threshold value, while the magnitude only varies slightly.}, }
@article {pmid24418218, year = {2014}, author = {Fatichi, S and Rimkus, S and Burlando, P and Bordoy, R}, title = {Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {493}, number = {}, pages = {1171-1182}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.014}, pmid = {24418218}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature.}, }
@article {pmid24417538, year = {2014}, author = {Castède, S and Campoy, JA and García, JQ and Le Dantec, L and Lafargue, M and Barreneche, T and Wenden, B and Dirlewanger, E}, title = {Genetic determinism of phenological traits highly affected by climate change in Prunus avium: flowering date dissected into chilling and heat requirements.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {202}, number = {2}, pages = {703-715}, doi = {10.1111/nph.12658}, pmid = {24417538}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Flowers/*growth &amp; development ; *Genes, Plant ; *Genotype ; Phenotype ; Prunus/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; *Quantitative Trait Loci ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The present study investigated the genetic determinism of flowering date (FD), dissected into chilling (CR) and heat (HR) requirements. Elucidation of the genetic determinism of flowering traits is crucial to anticipate the increasing of ecological misalignment of adaptative traits with novel climate conditions in most temperate-fruit species. CR and HR were evaluated over 3 yr and FD over 5 yr in an intraspecific sweet cherry (Prunus avium) F1 progeny, and FD over 6 yr in a different F1 progeny. One quantitative trait locus (QTL) with major effect and high stability between years of evaluation was detected for CR and FD in the same region of linkage group (LG) 4. For HR, no stable QTL was detected. Candidate genes underlying the major QTL on LG4 were investigated and key genes were identified for CR and FD. Phenotypic dissection of FD and year repetitions allowed us to identify CR as the high heritable component of FD and a high genotype × environment interaction for HR. QTLs for CR reported in this study are the first described in this species. Our results provide a foundation for the identification of genes involved in CR and FD in sweet cherry which could be used to develop ideotypes adapted to future climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid24417127, year = {2013}, author = {Hong, JT and Wu, JB and Wang, XD}, title = {[Effects of global climate change on the C, N, and P stoichiometry of terrestrial plants].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {9}, pages = {2658-2665}, pmid = {24417127}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Phosphorus/*analysis ; Plants/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The response patterns of biogeochemical cycle and the adaptation strategies of terrestrial plants under the background of global climate change have received extensive attention. This paper analyzed the effects of climate warming and precipitation change on the plant C:N:P in different ecosystems, the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on the plant nutrients in different photosynthetic pathways, and the short-term and long-term effects of the responses of soil-plant nutrients to nitrogen deposition, and explored the possible underlying mechanisms in terms of the plant physiological properties in relation to soil available nutrients, which could provide theoretical bases for studying the nutrients (C, N and P) transmission and regulation mechanisms between soil and plant, the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and the responses of biogeochemical cycle to global climate change. The existing problems and the further research directions in this study area were proposed.}, }
@article {pmid24417119, year = {2013}, author = {Sui, Y and Huang, WH and Yang, XG and Li, MS}, title = {[Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of global climate change. IV. Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought for maize based on crop water deficit index].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {9}, pages = {2590-2598}, pmid = {24417119}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Seasons ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Water/*metabolism ; Zea mays/metabolism/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1959-2008 meteorological data from 249 meteorological stations in southern China, and by using crop water deficit index (CWDI) as the agricultural drought index, this paper calculated the drought frequency and drought stations ratio in this region, and analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of drought for spring maize and summer maize during their growth periods. As for the spatial pattern of drought frequency, the drought for spring maize was more severe in the north of Huaihe River, northern Yunnan, and southern South China, but was lighter in the other regions. Except that the drought for summer maize at its late developmental stage was more severe in the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River, northern South China, and eastern Southwest China, the drought for summer maize at its other developmental stages within southern China was lighter. As for the variation trend of drought intensity and drought area, the drought intensity of spring maize from its seven-leaf stage to jointing stage in the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River increased obviously, while the drought intensity and drought area of the spring maize from its late spinning stage to milky maturity stage presented a decreasing trend. The drought of summer maize from its late jointing stage to tasseling stage and from late spinning stage to milky maturity stage all showed a decreasing trend. In Southwest China, the drought intensity and drought area for spring maize and summer maize had no clear trend. From the viewpoint of the inter-annual and decadal variability of drought intensity and drought area, there was a larger variation for the summer maize in the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River, but less difference in Southwest China.}, }
@article {pmid24416781, year = {2014}, author = {Cordovez, JM and Rendon, LM and Gonzalez, C and Guhl, F}, title = {Using the basic reproduction number to assess the effects of climate change in the risk of Chagas disease transmission in Colombia.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {129}, number = {}, pages = {74-82}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2013.10.003}, pmid = {24416781}, issn = {1873-6254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Basic Reproduction Number ; Chagas Disease/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Climate Change ; Colombia/epidemiology ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Risk Assessment ; Temperature ; Trypanosoma cruzi ; }, abstract = {The dynamics of vector-borne diseases has often been linked to climate change. However the commonly complex dynamics of vector-borne diseases make it very difficult to predict risk based on vector or host distributions. The basic reproduction number (R0) integrates all factors that determine whether a pathogen can establish or not. To obtain R0 for complex vector-borne diseases one can use the next-generation matrix (NGM) approach. We used the NGM to compute R0 for Chagas disease in Colombia incorporating the effect of temperature in some of the transmission routes of Trypanosoma cruzi. We used R0 to generate a risk map of present conditions and a forecast risk map at 20 years from now based on mean annual temperature (data obtained from Worldclim). In addition we used the model to compute elasticity and sensitivity indexes on all model parameters and routes of transmission. We present this work as an approach to indicate which transmission pathways are more critical for disease transmission but acknowledge the fact that results and projections strongly depend on better knowledge of entomological parameters and transmission routes. We concluded that the highest contribution to R0 comes from transmission of the parasites from humans to vectors, which is a surprising result. In addition,parameters related to contacts between human and vectors and the efficiency of parasite transmission between them also show a prominent effect on R0.}, }
@article {pmid24416165, year = {2014}, author = {Sovada, MA and Igl, LD and Pietz, PJ and Bartos, AJ}, title = {Influence of climate change on productivity of American white pelicans, Pelecanus erythrorhynchos.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e83430}, pmid = {24416165}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Lakes ; Nesting Behavior/physiology ; North Dakota ; Rain ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In the past decade, severe weather and West Nile virus were major causes of chick mortality at American white pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) colonies in the northern plains of North America. At one of these colonies, Chase Lake National Wildlife Refuge in North Dakota, spring arrival by pelicans has advanced approximately 16 days over a period of 44 years (1965-2008). We examined phenology patterns of pelicans and timing of inclement weather through the 44-year period, and evaluated the consequence of earlier breeding relative to weather-related chick mortality. We found severe weather patterns to be random through time, rather than concurrently shifting with the advanced arrival of pelicans. In recent years, if nest initiations had followed the phenology patterns of 1965 (i.e., nesting initiated 16 days later), fewer chicks likely would have died from weather-related causes. That is, there would be fewer chicks exposed to severe weather during a vulnerable transition period that occurs between the stage when chicks are being brooded by adults and the stage when chicks from multiple nests become part of a thermally protective crèche.}, }
@article {pmid24416149, year = {2014}, author = {Schut, AG and Wardell-Johnson, GW and Yates, CJ and Keppel, G and Baran, I and Franklin, SE and Hopper, SD and Van Niel, KP and Mucina, L and Byrne, M}, title = {Rapid characterisation of vegetation structure to predict refugia and climate change impacts across a global biodiversity hotspot.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e82778}, pmid = {24416149}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Australia ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; Geologic Sediments ; Linear Models ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Identification of refugia is an increasingly important adaptation strategy in conservation planning under rapid anthropogenic climate change. Granite outcrops (GOs) provide extraordinary diversity, including a wide range of taxa, vegetation types and habitats in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). However, poor characterization of GOs limits the capacity of conservation planning for refugia under climate change. A novel means for the rapid identification of potential refugia is presented, based on the assessment of local-scale environment and vegetation structure in a wider region. This approach was tested on GOs across the SWAFR. Airborne discrete return Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data and Red Green and Blue (RGB) imagery were acquired. Vertical vegetation profiles were used to derive 54 structural classes. Structural vegetation types were described in three areas for supervised classification of a further 13 GOs across the region. Habitat descriptions based on 494 vegetation plots on and around these GOs were used to quantify relationships between environmental variables, ground cover and canopy height. The vegetation surrounding GOs is strongly related to structural vegetation types (Kappa = 0.8) and to its spatial context. Water gaining sites around GOs are characterized by taller and denser vegetation in all areas. The strong relationship between rainfall, soil-depth, and vegetation structure (R(2) of 0.8-0.9) allowed comparisons of vegetation structure between current and future climate. Significant shifts in vegetation structural types were predicted and mapped for future climates. Water gaining areas below granite outcrops were identified as important putative refugia. A reduction in rainfall may be offset by the occurrence of deeper soil elsewhere on the outcrop. However, climate change interactions with fire and water table declines may render our conclusions conservative. The LiDAR-based mapping approach presented enables the integration of site-based biotic assessment with structural vegetation types for the rapid delineation and prioritization of key refugia.}, }
@article {pmid24416086, year = {2013}, author = {Pouchard, LC and Branstetter, ML and Cook, RB and Devarakonda, R and Green, J and Palanisamy, G and Alexander, P and Noy, NF}, title = {A Linked Science Investigation: Enhancing Climate Change Data Discovery with Semantic Technologies.}, journal = {Earth science informatics}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {24416086}, issn = {1865-0473}, support = {U54 HG004028/HG/NHGRI NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Linked Science is the practice of inter-connecting scientific assets by publishing, sharing and linking scientific data and processes in end-to-end loosely coupled workflows that allow the sharing and re-use of scientific data. Much of this data does not live in the cloud or on the Web, but rather in multi-institutional data centers that provide tools and add value through quality assurance, validation, curation, dissemination, and analysis of the data. In this paper, we make the case for the use of scientific scenarios in Linked Science. We propose a scenario in river-channel transport that requires biogeochemical experimental data and global climate-simulation model data from many sources. We focus on the use of ontologies-formal machine-readable descriptions of the domain-to facilitate search and discovery of this data. Mercury, developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, is a tool for distributed metadata harvesting, search and retrieval. Mercury currently provides uniform access to more than 100,000 metadata records; 30,000 scientists use it each month. We augmented search in Mercury with ontologies, such as the ontologies in the Semantic Web for Earth and Environmental Terminology (SWEET) collection by prototyping a component that provides access to the ontology terms from Mercury. We evaluate the coverage of SWEET for the ORNL Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC).}, }
@article {pmid24415686, year = {2013}, author = {Miao, LJ and Li, YK and Li, J and Xie, GY and Yuan, FK}, title = {[The correlations between population of Oriental white stork and climate change in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve].}, journal = {Dong wu xue yan jiu = Zoological research}, volume = {34}, number = {6}, pages = {549-555}, pmid = {24415686}, issn = {0254-5853}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*classification/growth &amp; development ; China ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {This study analyzed the population dynamics of the Oriental white stork (Ciconia boyciana) wintering in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve (PLNNR) from 1985 to 2011, to see if there was any relationship with climate change. Testing of several climate variables-monthly average temperature, monthly average maximum and minimum temperature, as well as monthly precipitation-indicated that the population size of the Oriental white stork in the PLNNR was 1,340±178 ind., with significant linear increase and drastic annual fluctuation. Every single year, the population size only significantly correlated with the average minimum temperature of Nov. In theory, the low temperature of Nov. could drive individuals to choose other wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, instead of the Poyang Lake as wintering habitats. Meanwhile, temperatures in wintering areas also showed a carry-over effect on subsequent population size. Temperatures in primary stage and later stage of wintering period were significantly correlated with population size 2-9 years later, while the temperature of Oct. was highly significantly correlated with population size 2-5 years after. Temperatures of Feb. and Mar. in the later stage of wintering period were highly significantly correlated with population size of 8 and 3 years after, respectively. Moreover, the stepwise linear regression result showed that the average maximum temperature of Oct. and average maximum temperature of Mar. 2 years ago, as well as the average maximum temperature of Oct. and the average temperature of Mar. 4 years ago were significant predictor factors of the population size fluctuation of the Oriental white stork, which totally accounted for 79.2% of the population size change.}, }
@article {pmid24415466, year = {2014}, author = {Row, JR and Wilson, PJ and Gomez, C and Koen, EL and Bowman, J and Thornton, D and Murray, DL}, title = {The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {7}, pages = {2076-2086}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12526}, pmid = {24415466}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Gene-Environment Interaction ; *Genetic Variation ; Lynx/genetics/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Seasons ; Snow ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenically driven climatic change is expected to reshape global patterns of species distribution and abundance. Given recent links between genetic variation and environmental patterns, climate change may similarly impact genetic population structure, but we lack information on the spatial and mechanistic underpinnings of genetic-climate associations. Here, we show that current genetic variability of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is strongly correlated with a winter climate gradient (i.e. increasing snow depth and winter precipitation from west-to-east) across the Pacific-North American (PNO) to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic systems. This relationship was stronger than isolation by distance and not explained by landscape variables or changes in abundance. Thus, these patterns suggest that individuals restricted dispersal across the climate boundary, likely in the absence of changes in habitat quality. We propose habitat imprinting on snow conditions as one possible explanation for this unusual phenomenon. Coupling historical climate data with future projections, we also found increasingly diverging snow conditions between the two climate systems. Based on genetic simulations using projected climate data (2041-2070), we predicted that this divergence could lead to a threefold increase in genetic differentiation, potentially leading to isolated east-west populations of lynx in North America. Our results imply that subtle genetic structure can be governed by current climate and that substantive genetic differentiation and related ecological divergence may arise from changing climate patterns.}, }
@article {pmid24412917, year = {2014}, author = {Ritson, JP and Graham, NJ and Templeton, MR and Clark, JM and Gough, R and Freeman, C}, title = {The impact of climate change on the treatability of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in upland water supplies: a UK perspective.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {473-474}, number = {}, pages = {714-730}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.095}, pmid = {24412917}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; United Kingdom ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; Water Purification/*methods ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Climate change in the UK is expected to cause increases in temperatures, altered precipitation patterns and more frequent and extreme weather events. In this review we discuss climate effects on dissolved organic matter (DOM), how altered DOM and water physico-chemical properties will affect treatment processes and assess the utility of techniques used to remove DOM and monitor water quality. A critical analysis of the literature has been undertaken with a focus on catchment drivers of DOM character, removal of DOM via coagulation and the formation of disinfectant by-products (DBPs). We suggest that: (1) upland catchments recovering from acidification will continue to produce more DOM with a greater hydrophobic fraction as solubility controls decrease; (2) greater seasonality in DOM export is likely in future due to altered precipitation patterns; (3) changes in species diversity and water properties could encourage algal blooms; and (4) that land management and vegetative changes may have significant effects on DOM export and treatability but require further research. Increases in DBPs may occur where catchments have high influence from peatlands or where algal blooms become an issue. To increase resilience to variable DOM quantity and character we suggest that one or more of the following steps are undertaken at the treatment works: a) 'enhanced coagulation' optimised for DOM removal; b) switching from aluminium to ferric coagulants and/or incorporating coagulant aids; c) use of magnetic ion-exchange (MIEX) pre-coagulation; and d) activated carbon filtration post-coagulation. Fluorescence and UV absorbance techniques are highlighted as potential methods for low-cost, rapid on-line process optimisation to improve DOM removal and minimise DBPs.}, }
@article {pmid24404169, year = {2014}, author = {Hu, J and Liu, Y}, title = {Unveiling the conservation biogeography of a data-deficient endangered bird species under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {e84529}, pmid = {24404169}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; }, abstract = {It remains a challenge to identify the geographical patterns and underlying environmental associations of species with unique ecological niches and distinct behaviors. This in turn hinders our understanding of the ecology as well as effective conservation management of threatened species. The white-eared night heron (Gorsachius magnificus) is a non-migratory nocturnal bird species that has a patchy distribution in the mountainous forests of East Asia. It is currently categorized as "Endangered" on the IUCN Red List, primarily due to its restricted range and fragmented habitat. To improve our knowledge of the biogeography and conservation of this species, we modeled the geographical pattern of its suitable habitat and evaluated the potential impacts of climate change using ecological niche modeling with a maximum entropy approach implemented in Maxent. Our results indicated that the amount of suitable habitat in all of East Asia was about 130 000 km(2), which can be spatially subdivided into several mountain ranges in southern and southwestern China and northern Vietnam. The extent of suitable habitat range may shrink by more than 35% under a predicted changing climate when assuming the most pessimistic condition of dispersal, while some more suitable habitat would be available if the heron could disperse unrestrainedly. The significant future changes in habitat suitability suggested for Gorsachius magnificus urge caution in any downgrading of Red List status that may be considered. Our results also discern potentially suitable areas for future survey efforts on new populations. Overall, this study demonstrates that ecological niche modeling offers an important tool for evaluating the habitat suitability and potential impacts of climate change on an enigmatic and endangered species based on limited presence data.}, }
@article {pmid24401556, year = {2014}, author = {Finch, CE and Beltrán-Sánchez, H and Crimmins, EM}, title = {Uneven futures of human lifespans: reckonings from Gompertz mortality rates, climate change, and air pollution.}, journal = {Gerontology}, volume = {60}, number = {2}, pages = {183-188}, pmid = {24401556}, issn = {1423-0003}, support = {P01 AG014751/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; P50 AG005142/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; R21 AG040753/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; R21 AG-040753/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; P30 AG017265/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; R21 AG040683/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; P01 AG-040753/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; P30AG017265/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Aging ; Air Pollution ; Climate Change ; Cohort Studies ; Female ; Humans ; Life Expectancy/*trends ; Longevity ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Statistical ; Mortality ; }, abstract = {The past 200 years have enabled remarkable increases in human lifespans through improvements in the living environment that have nearly eliminated infections as a cause of death through improved hygiene, public health, medicine, and nutrition. We argue that the limit to lifespan may be approaching. Since 1997, no one has exceeded Jeanne Calment's record of 122.5 years, despite an exponential increase of centenarians. Moreover, the background mortality may be approaching a lower limit. We calculate from Gompertz coefficients that further increases in longevity to approach a life expectancy of 100 years in 21st century cohorts would require 50% slower mortality rate accelerations, which would be a fundamental change in the rate of human aging. Looking into the 21st century, we see further challenges to health and longevity from the continued burning of fossil fuels that contribute to air pollution as well as global warming. Besides increased heat waves to which elderly are vulnerable, global warming is anticipated to increase ozone levels and facilitate the spread of pathogens. We anticipate continuing socioeconomic disparities in life expectancy.}, }
@article {pmid24400906, year = {2014}, author = {Li, J and Wan, Q and Guo, YP and Abbott, RJ and Rao, GY}, title = {Should I stay or should I go: biogeographic and evolutionary history of a polyploid complex (Chrysanthemum indicum complex) in response to Pleistocene climate change in China.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {201}, number = {3}, pages = {1031-1044}, doi = {10.1111/nph.12585}, pmid = {24400906}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; China ; Chrysanthemum/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Ribosomal Spacer/genetics ; Genetic Variation ; *Geography ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; *Polyploidy ; Sample Size ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Quaternary climatic oscillations greatly influenced the distribution and pattern of biodiversity in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we examine how such oscillations in South East Asia may have affected the demographic and evolutionary history of a polyploid plant complex associated with semi-dry habitats. We analyzed plastid and nuclear ribosomal DNA (rDNA) internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequence variation within the Chrysanthemum indicum complex (Asteraceae), which comprises diploid and polyploid plants distributed throughout China. In total, 368 individuals from 47 populations across the geographical range of the complex were analyzed. We show that the relatively widespread tetraploid form of C. indicum expanded its range southward in the Pleistocene, possibly during the most recent or previous glacial period when conditions became drier and forests retreated in southern China. In marked contrast, diploid and other polyploid members of the complex failed to expand their ranges at these times or have since undergone range contractions in contrast to tetraploid C. indicum. We conclude that hybridization and gene flow between taxa occurred frequently during the evolutionary history of the complex, causing considerable sharing of chlorotypes and ITS types. Nevertheless, taxa within ploidy levels could be largely distinguished according to chlorotype and/or ITS type.}, }
@article {pmid24400619, year = {2014}, author = {Rice, MB and Thurston, GD and Balmes, JR and Pinkerton, KE}, title = {Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.}, journal = {American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine}, volume = {189}, number = {5}, pages = {512-519}, pmid = {24400619}, issn = {1535-4970}, support = {P51 OD011107/OD/NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES000260/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; U54 OH007550/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; T32 HL007374/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; P51 OD0011107/OD/NIH HHS/United States ; F32 ES023352/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T32HL007374/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; 1F32ES023352-01/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects/economics/prevention &amp; control ; Allergens/adverse effects ; Cardiovascular Diseases/economics/*etiology/mortality/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change/economics ; Disasters/economics/prevention &amp; control ; Environmental Health ; Global Health ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Pollen/adverse effects ; Public Health ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/economics/*etiology/mortality/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.}, }
@article {pmid24399203, year = {2014}, author = {Svejcar, T and Boyd, C and Davies, K and Madsen, M and Bates, J and Sheley, R and Marlow, C and Bohnert, D and Borman, M and Mata-Gonzàlez, R and Buckhouse, J and Stringham, T and Perryman, B and Swanson, S and Tate, K and George, M and Ruyle, G and Roundy, B and Call, C and Jensen, K and Launchbaugh, K and Gearhart, A and Vermeire, L and Tanaka, J and Derner, J and Frasier, G and Havstad, K}, title = {Western land managers will need all available tools for adapting to climate change, including grazing: a critique of Beschta et al.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {53}, number = {6}, pages = {1035-1038}, pmid = {24399203}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {In a previous article, Beschta et al. (Environ Manag 51(2):474-491, 2013) argue that grazing by large ungulates (both native and domestic) should be eliminated or greatly reduced on western public lands to reduce potential climate change impacts. The authors did not present a balanced synthesis of the scientific literature, and their publication is more of an opinion article. Their conclusions do not reflect the complexities associated with herbivore grazing. Because grazing is a complex ecological process, synthesis of the scientific literature can be a challenge. Legacy effects of uncontrolled grazing during the homestead era further complicate analysis of current grazing impacts. Interactions of climate change and grazing will depend on the specific situation. For example, increasing atmospheric CO2 and temperatures may increase accumulation of fine fuels (primarily grasses) and thus increase wildfire risk. Prescribed grazing by livestock is one of the few management tools available for reducing fine fuel accumulation. While there are certainly points on the landscape where herbivore impacts can be identified, there are also vast grazed areas where impacts are minimal. Broad scale reduction of domestic and wild herbivores to help native plant communities cope with climate change will be unnecessary because over the past 20-50 years land managers have actively sought to bring populations of native and domestic herbivores in balance with the potential of vegetation and soils. To cope with a changing climate, land managers will need access to all available vegetation management tools, including grazing.}, }
@article {pmid24397223, year = {2013}, author = {Waddington, K and Varangu, L and Berry, P and Paterson, J}, title = {Climate change--how ready are you?.}, journal = {Health estate}, volume = {67}, number = {10}, pages = {27-29}, pmid = {24397223}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Hospitals, Public ; Planning Techniques ; }, abstract = {In an article that first appeared in Canadian Healthcare Facilities magazine, Kent Waddington, communications director, and Linda Varangu, Executive Director, at the Canadian Coalition for Green Health Care, and Peter Berry, senior policy analyst, and Jaclyn Paterson, environmental health specialist, at Health Canada, examine, in the light of the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, some of the latest thinking on the topic in Canada, and reflect on the initiatives taken by a number of the country's healthcare facilities to prepare for such incidents, and mitigate their impact.}, }
@article {pmid24395589, year = {2014}, author = {Bassu, S and Brisson, N and Durand, JL and Boote, K and Lizaso, J and Jones, JW and Rosenzweig, C and Ruane, AC and Adam, M and Baron, C and Basso, B and Biernath, C and Boogaard, H and Conijn, S and Corbeels, M and Deryng, D and De Sanctis, G and Gayler, S and Grassini, P and Hatfield, J and Hoek, S and Izaurralde, C and Jongschaap, R and Kemanian, AR and Kersebaum, KC and Kim, SH and Kumar, NS and Makowski, D and Müller, C and Nendel, C and Priesack, E and Pravia, MV and Sau, F and Shcherbak, I and Tao, F and Teixeira, E and Timlin, D and Waha, K}, title = {How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {7}, pages = {2301-2320}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12520}, pmid = {24395589}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Geography ; Models, Biological ; Temperature ; Water/*metabolism ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 μmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.}, }
@article {pmid24393606, year = {2014}, author = {Jueterbock, A and Kollias, S and Smolina, I and Fernandes, JM and Coyer, JA and Olsen, JL and Hoarau, G}, title = {Thermal stress resistance of the brown alga Fucus serratus along the North-Atlantic coast: acclimatization potential to climate change.}, journal = {Marine genomics}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {27-36}, doi = {10.1016/j.margen.2013.12.008}, pmid = {24393606}, issn = {1876-7478}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Analysis of Variance ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate Change ; DNA Primers/genetics ; Europe ; Fucus/*physiology ; Heat-Shock Proteins/metabolism ; *Hot Temperature ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; Phylogeography ; Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Species Specificity ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Seaweed-dominated communities are predicted to disappear south of 45° latitude on North-Atlantic rocky shores by 2200 because of climate change. The extent of predicted habitat loss, however, could be mitigated if the seaweeds' physiology is sufficiently plastic to rapidly acclimatize to the warmer temperatures. The main objectives of this study were to identify whether the thermal tolerance of the canopy-forming seaweed Fucus serratus is population-specific and where temperatures are likely to exceed its tolerance limits in the next 200 years. We measured the stress response of seaweed samples from four populations (Norway, Denmark, Brittany and Spain) to common-garden heat stress (20 °C-36 °C) in both photosynthetic performance and transcriptomic upregulation of heat shock protein genes. The two stress indicators did not correlate and likely measured different cellular components of the stress response, but both indicators revealed population-specific differences, suggesting ecotypic differentiation. Our results confirmed that thermal extremes will regularly reach physiologically stressful levels in Brittany (France) and further south by the end of the 22nd century. Although heat stress resilience in photosynthetic performance was higher at the species' southern distributional edge in Spain, the hsp expression pattern suggested that this edge-population experienced reduced fitness and limited responsiveness to further stressors. Thus, F. serratus may be unable to mitigate its predicted northward shift and may be at high risk to lose its center of genetic diversity and adaptability in Brittany (France). As it is an important intertidal key species, the disappearance of this seaweed will likely trigger major ecological changes in the entire associated ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid24391742, year = {2013}, author = {Monahan, WB and Cook, T and Melton, F and Connor, J and Bobowski, B}, title = {Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e83163}, pmid = {24391742}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {UL1 TR000128/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Colorado ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Models, Biological ; *Pinus/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2)) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used to help guide adaptive management.}, }
@article {pmid24391717, year = {2013}, author = {Lane, DR and Ready, RC and Buddemeier, RW and Martinich, JA and Shouse, KC and Wobus, CW}, title = {Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e82579}, pmid = {24391717}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change/economics ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/trends ; *Coral Reefs ; Florida ; Global Warming/economics/prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Effect/economics/prevention &amp; control ; Hawaii ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Models, Economic ; Puerto Rico ; Recreation ; United States ; }, abstract = {The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.}, }
@article {pmid24390082, year = {2014}, author = {Cliquet, A}, title = {International and European law on protected areas and climate change: need for adaptation or implementation?.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {720-731}, pmid = {24390082}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Ecosystem ; European Union ; }, abstract = {The protection and management of protected areas must be adapted to the effects of climate change. An important question is if the law on protected areas is capable of dealing with the required changes. In general, both international nature conventions and European Union nature conservation law do not contain any specific provisions on climate change and protected areas. Attention has been paid to this link in non-binding decisions and policy documents. In order to adapt the law to increased dynamics from climate change, more flexibility is needed. This flexibility should not be understood as "legal" flexibility, in the sense of the weakening nature conservation provisions. Scientific uncertainties on the effects of climate change might conflict with the need for legal certainties. In order to adapt to the effects of climate change, the two crucial elements are the strengthening of core protected areas and connectivity between the core areas. At the international level, both elements can be found in non-binding documents. International law enables the required adaptation; however, it often lacks concrete obligations. A stronger legal framework can be found at the level of the European Union. The Birds and Habitats Directives contain sufficient tools to deal with the effects of climate change. The Directives have been insufficiently implemented so far. Especially the central goals of reaching a favorable conservation status and connectivity measures need to be addressed much more in the future.}, }
@article {pmid24389537, year = {2014}, author = {Jaeschke, A and Bittner, T and Jentsch, A and Beierkuhnlein, C}, title = {The last decade in ecological climate change impact research: where are we now?.}, journal = {Die Naturwissenschaften}, volume = {101}, number = {1}, pages = {1-9}, pmid = {24389537}, issn = {1432-1904}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Publications/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Research/standards/*trends ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly affecting organisms and ecosystems. The amount of research and the number of articles in this field is overwhelming. However, single studies necessarily consider limited aspects. Hence, there is an increasing need for structuring the research approaches and findings in climate change research in order to direct future action in an efficient way towards research gaps and areas of uncertainty. Here, we review the current state of knowledge accumulated over the last 10 years (2003-2012) about impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. Almost 1,200 articles of the scientific literature listed in the ISI Web of Science are analysed. We explore the geographical distribution of knowledge gain, the studied taxonomic groups, ecosystems and environmental parameters as well as the applied methods. Several knowledge gaps arise. Most of the first authors of the analysed articles are residents of North America, Australia or Europe. A similar pattern is found for the study areas. Vascular plants and therewith forests are the most studied taxonomic group and ecosystem. The use of models to estimate potential impacts of climate change is well established in climate change impact research and is continuously developing. However, there is a lack of empirical data derived from experimental climate change simulations. In a rapidly evolving research landscape, this review aims at providing an overview of the current patterns of knowledge distribution and research demands arising from knowledge gaps and biases. Our results should help to identify future research needs and priorities.}, }
@article {pmid24388900, year = {2014}, author = {Mills, RT and Gavazov, KS and Spiegelberger, T and Johnson, D and Buttler, A}, title = {Diminished soil functions occur under simulated climate change in a sup-alpine pasture, but heterotrophic temperature sensitivity indicates microbial resilience.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {473-474}, number = {}, pages = {465-472}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.071}, pmid = {24388900}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Heterotrophic Processes ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The pressure of climate change is disproportionately high in mountainous regions, and small changes may push ecosystem processes beyond sensitivity thresholds, creating new dynamics of carbon and nutrient cycling. Given that the rate of organic matter decomposition is strongly dependent upon temperature and soil moisture, the sensitivity of soil respiration to both metrics is highly relevant when considering soil-atmosphere feedbacks under a changing climate. To assess the effects of changing climate in a mountain pasture system, we transplanted turfs along an elevation gradient, monitored in situ soil respiration, incubated collected top-soils to determine legacy effects on temperature sensitivity, and analysed soil organic matter (SOM) to detect changes in quality and quantity of SOM fractions. In situ transplantation down-slope reduced soil moisture and increased soil temperature, with concurrent reductions in soil respiration. Soil moisture acted as an overriding constraint to soil respiration, and significantly reduced the sensitivity to temperature. Under controlled laboratory conditions, removal of the moisture constraint to heterotrophic respiration led to a significant respiration-temperature response. However, despite lower respiration rates down-slope, the response function was comparable among sites, and therefore unaffected by antecedent conditions. We found shifts in the SOM quality, especially of the light fraction, indicating changes to the dynamics of decomposition of recently deposited material. Our findings highlighted the resilience of the microbial community to severe climatic perturbations, but also that soil moisture stress during the growing season can significantly reduce soil function in addition to direct effects on plant productivity. This demonstrated the sensitivity of subalpine pastures under climate change, and possible implications for sustainable use given reductions in organic matter turnover and consequent feedbacks to nutrient cycling.}, }
@article {pmid24383807, year = {2014}, author = {Booth, DJ and Poulos, DE and Poole, J and Feary, DA}, title = {Growth and temperature relationships for juvenile fish species in seagrass beds: implications of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {84}, number = {1}, pages = {231-236}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.12255}, pmid = {24383807}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Estuaries ; Perciformes/*growth &amp; development ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The effect of water temperature on growth responses of three common seagrass fish species that co-occur as juveniles in the estuaries in Sydney (34° S) but have differing latitudinal ranges was measured: Pelates sexlineatus (subtropical to warm temperate: 27-35°S), Centropogon australis (primarily subtropical to warm temperate: 24-37°S) and Acanthaluteres spilomelanurus (warm to cool temperate: below 32°S). Replicate individuals of each species were acclimated over a 7 day period in one of three temperature treatments (control: 22°C, low: 18°C and high: 26°C) and their somatic growth was assessed within treatments over 10 days. Growth of all three species was affected by water temperature, with the highest growth of both northern species (P. sexlineatus and C. australis) at 22 and 26°C, whereas growth of the southern ranging species (A. spilomelanurus) was reduced at temperatures higher than 18°C, suggesting that predicted increase in estuarine water temperatures through climate change may change relative performance of seagrass fish assemblages.}, }
@article {pmid24383254, year = {2013}, author = {Nau, JY}, title = {[Of antibiotic resistance and climate change].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {9}, number = {408}, pages = {2258-2259}, pmid = {24383254}, issn = {1660-9379}, mesh = {Anti-Bacterial Agents/*pharmacology ; Bacterial Infections/*drug therapy/microbiology ; *Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; Humans ; Organizational Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid24382828, year = {2014}, author = {Jones, DO and Yool, A and Wei, CL and Henson, SA and Ruhl, HA and Watson, RA and Gehlen, M}, title = {Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {1861-1872}, pmid = {24382828}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Biomass ; *Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Invertebrates/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Oceans and Seas ; Time Factors ; Vertebrates/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep-sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal-to-century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091-2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006-2015). Our projections use multi-model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep-water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold-water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide.}, }
@article {pmid25834299, year = {2014}, author = {Porter, JJ and Dessai, S and Tompkins, EL}, title = {What do we know about UK household adaptation to climate change? A systematic review.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {127}, number = {2}, pages = {371-379}, pmid = {25834299}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {The UK Government's first National Adaptation Programme seeks to create a 'climate-ready society' capable of making well-informed and far-sighted decisions to address risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate, where individual households are expected to adapt when it is in their interest to do so. How, and to what extent, households are able to do this remains unclear. Like other developed countries, research on UK adaptation has focused predominately on public and private organisations. To fill that gap, a systematic literature review was conducted to understand what actions UK households have taken in response to, or in anticipation of, a changing climate; what drives or impedes these actions; and whether households will act autonomously. We found that UK households struggle to build long-term adaptive capacity and are reliant upon traditional reactive coping responses. Of concern is that these coping responses are less effective for some climate risks (e.g. flooding); cost more over the long-term; and fail to create household capacity to adapt to other stresses. While low-cost, low-skill coping responses were already being implemented, the adoption of more permanent physical measures, behavioural changes, and acceptance of new responsibilities are unlikely to happen autonomously without further financial or government support. If public policy on household adaptation to climate change is to be better informed than more high-quality empirical research is urgently needed.}, }
@article {pmid25821400, year = {2014}, author = {McAllister, RR and Smith, TF and Lovelock, CE and Low Choy, D and Ash, AJ and McDonald, J}, title = {Adapting to climate change in South East Queensland, Australia.}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {429-433}, pmid = {25821400}, issn = {1436-3798}, }
@article {pmid24375860, year = {2014}, author = {Engelhard, GH and Righton, DA and Pinnegar, JK}, title = {Climate change and fishing: a century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {2473-2483}, pmid = {24375860}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Fisheries ; *Gadus morhua ; North Sea ; }, abstract = {Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time-series spanning 1913-2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod - mostly in the deeper, northern- and north-easternmost parts of the North Sea - is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century - mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3 1/2 decades by data from fisheries-independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish.}, }
@article {pmid24374594, year = {2014}, author = {Oni, SK and Futter, MN and Molot, LA and Dillon, PJ and Crossman, J}, title = {Uncertainty assessments and hydrological implications of climate change in two adjacent agricultural catchments of a rapidly urbanizing watershed.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {473-474}, number = {}, pages = {326-337}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.032}, pmid = {24374594}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Hydrology ; Lakes ; Models, Statistical ; Ontario ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Uncertainty ; Urbanization/*trends ; Water Movements ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Lake Simcoe is the most important inland lake in Southern Ontario. The watershed is predominantly agricultural and under increasing pressure from urbanization, leading to changing runoff patterns in rivers draining to the lake. Uncertainties in rainfall-runoff modeling in tributary catchments of the Lake Simcoe Watershed (LSW) can be an order of magnitude larger than pristine watersheds, hampering water quality predictions and export calculations. Here we conduct a robust assessment to constrain the uncertainty in hydrological simulations and projections in the LSW using two representative adjacent agricultural catchments. Downscaled CGCM 3 projections using A1B and A2 emission scenarios projected increases of 4°C in air temperature and a 26% longer growing season. The fraction of precipitation falling as snow will decrease. Spring runoff is an important event in LSW but individual HBV best calibrated parameter sets under-predicted peak flows by up to 32%. Using an ensemble of behavioral parameter sets achieved credible representations of present day hydrology and constrained uncertainties in future projections. Parameter uncertainty analysis showed that the catchments differ in terms of their snow accumulation/melt and groundwater dynamics. Human activities exacerbate the differences in hydrological response. Model parameterization in one catchment could not generate credible hydrological simulations in the other. We cautioned against extrapolating results from monitored to ungauged catchments in managed watersheds like the LSW.}, }
@article {pmid24372690, year = {2014}, author = {Li, F and Kwon, YS and Bae, MJ and Chung, N and Kwon, TS and Park, YS}, title = {Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {498-508}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12219}, pmid = {24372690}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Global Warming ; Insecta/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Republic of Korea ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming.}, }
@article {pmid24368429, year = {2013}, author = {Cortes, L and Domínguez, I and Lebgue, T and Viramontes, O and Melgoza, A and Pinedo, C and Camarillo, J}, title = {Variation in the distribution of four cacti species due to climate change in Chihuahua, Mexico.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {390-402}, pmid = {24368429}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Cactaceae ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; Mexico ; }, abstract = {This study is about four cacti species in the state of Chihuahua, (Coryphantha macromeris, Mammillaria lasiacantha, Echinocereus dasyacanthus and Ferocactus wislizenii). Geographic distribution was inferred with MaxEnt. Projection was estimated under three scenarios simulated from IPCC (A2, B1 and A1B) and four periods (2000, 2020, 2050 and 2080) with 19 climatic variables. MaxEnt projects a species decrease in 2020 under scenario A2, increasing in the following years. In 2080 all species, except E. dasyacanthus, will occupy a larger area than their current one. Scenario B1 projected for 2050 a decrease for all species, and in 2080 all species except E. dasyacanthus will increase their area. With A1B, C. macromeris decreases 27% from 2020 to 2050. E. dasyacanthus increases from 2020 to 2050 and decreases 73% from 2020 to 2080. M. lasiacantha decreases 13% from 2020 to 2080 and F. wislizenii will increase 13% from 2020 to 2080. Some species will remain stable on their areas despite climate changes, and other species may be affected under the conditions of the A1B scenario. It is important to continue with studies which give a broader perspective about the consequences of climate change, thus enabling decision-making about resource management.}, }
@article {pmid24363907, year = {2013}, author = {Saenz, D and Fucik, EM and Kwiatkowski, MA}, title = {Synergistic effects of the invasive Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera) and climate change on aquatic amphibian survival.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {14}, pages = {4828-4840}, pmid = {24363907}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Changes in climate and the introduction of invasive species are two major stressors to amphibians, although little is known about the interaction between these two factors with regard to impacts on amphibians. We focused our study on an invasive tree species, the Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera), that annually sheds its leaves and produces leaf litter that is known to negatively impact aquatic amphibian survival. The purpose of our research was to determine whether the timing of leaf fall from Chinese tallow and the timing of amphibian breeding (determined by weather) influence survival of amphibian larvae. We simulated a range of winter weather scenarios, ranging from cold to warm, by altering the relative timing of when leaf litter and amphibian larvae were introduced into aquatic mesocosms. Our results indicate that amphibian larvae survival was greatly affected by the length of time Chinese tallow leaf litter decomposes in water prior to the introduction of the larvae. Larvae in treatments simulating warm winters (early amphibian breeding) were introduced to the mesocosms early in the aquatic decomposition process of the leaf litter and had significantly lower survival compared with cold winters (late amphibian breeding), likely due to significantly lower dissolved oxygen levels. Shifts to earlier breeding phenology, linked to warming climate, have already been observed in many amphibian taxa, and with most climate models predicting a significant warming trend over the next century, the trend toward earlier breeding should continue if not increase. Our results strongly suggest that a warming climate can interact with the effects of invasive plant species, in ways we have not previously considered, to reduce the survival of an already declining group of organisms.}, }
@article {pmid24363905, year = {2013}, author = {Kuhn, K and Schwenk, K and Both, C and Canal, D and Johansson, US and van der Mije, S and Töpfer, T and Päckert, M}, title = {Differentiation in neutral genes and a candidate gene in the pied flycatcher: using biological archives to track global climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {14}, pages = {4799-4814}, pmid = {24363905}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global climate change is one of the major driving forces for adaptive shifts in migration and breeding phenology and possibly impacts demographic changes if a species fails to adapt sufficiently. In Western Europe, pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) have insufficiently adapted their breeding phenology to the ongoing advance of food peaks within their breeding area and consequently suffered local population declines. We address the question whether this population decline led to a loss of genetic variation, using two neutral marker sets (mitochondrial control region and microsatellites), and one potentially selectively non-neutral marker (avian Clock gene). We report temporal changes in genetic diversity in extant populations and biological archives over more than a century, using samples from sites differing in the extent of climate change. Comparing genetic differentiation over this period revealed that only the recent Dutch population, which underwent population declines, showed slightly lower genetic variation than the historic Dutch population. As that loss of variation was only moderate and not observed in all markers, current gene flow across Western and Central European populations might have compensated local loss of variation over the last decades. A comparison of genetic differentiation in neutral loci versus the Clock gene locus provided evidence for stabilizing selection. Furthermore, in all genetic markers, we found a greater genetic differentiation in space than in time. This pattern suggests that local adaptation or historic processes might have a stronger effect on the population structure and genetic variation in the pied flycatcher than recent global climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid24363138, year = {2014}, author = {Ausden, M}, title = {Climate change adaptation: putting principles into practice.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {685-698}, pmid = {24363138}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; England ; Fresh Water ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Carrying out wildlife conservation in a changing climate requires planning on long timescales at both a site and network level, while also having the flexibility to adapt actions at sites over short timescales in response to changing conditions and new information. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), a land-owning wildlife conservation charity in the UK, achieves this on its nature reserves through its system of management planning. This involves setting network-wide objectives which inform the 25-year vision and 5-year conservation objectives for each site. Progress toward achieving each site's conservation objectives is reviewed annually, to identify any adjustments which might be needed to the site's management. The conservation objectives and 25-year vision of each site are reviewed every 5 years.Significant predicted [corrected] long-term impacts of climate change most frequently identified at RSPB reserves are: loss of intertidal habitat through coastal squeeze, loss of low-lying islands due to higher sea levels and coastal erosion, loss of coastal freshwater and brackish wetlands due to increased coastal flooding, and changes in the hydrology of wetlands. The main types of adaptation measures in place on RSPB reserves to address climate change-related impacts are: re-creation of intertidal habitat, re-creation and restoration of freshwater wetlands away from vulnerable coastal areas, blocking artificial drainage on peatlands, and addressing pressures on freshwater supply for lowland wet grasslands in eastern and southeastern England. Developing partnerships between organizations has been crucial in delivering large-scale adaptation projects.}, }
@article {pmid24362535, year = {2014}, author = {McDaniel, MD and Kaye, JP and Kaye, MW and Bruns, MA}, title = {Climate change interactions affect soil carbon dioxide efflux and microbial functioning in a post-harvest forest.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {174}, number = {4}, pages = {1437-1448}, pmid = {24362535}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Bacteria/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fungi/metabolism ; Pennsylvania ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Forest disturbances, including whole-tree harvest, will increase with a growing human population and its rising affluence. Following harvest, forests become sources of C to the atmosphere, partly because wetter and warmer soils (relative to pre-harvest) increase soil CO2 efflux. This relationship between soil microclimate and CO2 suggests that climate changes predicted for the northeastern US may exacerbate post-harvest CO2 losses. We tested this hypothesis using a climate-manipulation experiment within a recently harvested northeastern US forest with warmed (H; +2.5 °C), wetted (W; +23% precipitation), warmed + wetted (H+W), and ambient (A) treatments. The cumulative soil CO2 effluxes from H and W were 35% (P = 0.01) and 22% (P = 0.07) greater than A. However, cumulative efflux in H+W was similar to A and W, and 24% lower than in H (P = 0.02). These findings suggest that with higher precipitation soil CO2 efflux attenuates rapidly to warming, perhaps due to changes in substrate availability or microbial communities. Microbial function measured as CO2 response to 15 C substrates in warmed soils was distinct from non-warmed soils (P < 0.001). Furthermore, wetting lowered catabolic evenness (P = 0.04) and fungi-to-bacteria ratios (P = 0.03) relative to non-wetted treatments. A reciprocal transplant incubation showed that H+W microorganisms had lower laboratory respiration on their home soils (i.e., home substrates) than on soils from other treatments (P < 0.01). We inferred that H+W microorganisms may use a constrained suite of C substrates that become depleted in their "home" soils, and that in some disturbed ecosystems, a precipitation-induced attenuation (or suppression) of soil CO2 efflux to warming may result from fine-tuned microbe-substrate linkages.}, }
@article {pmid24357530, year = {2014}, author = {Pomara, LY and LeDee, OE and Martin, KJ and Zuckerberg, B}, title = {Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {7}, pages = {2087-2099}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12510}, pmid = {24357530}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Demography ; Endangered Species ; Environment ; Female ; Longevity ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; United States ; Viperidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back-cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long-term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long-term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high-conservation concern. Range-wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal-limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.}, }
@article {pmid24355428, year = {2015}, author = {Rossi, F and Olguín, EJ and Diels, L and De Philippis, R}, title = {Microbial fixation of CO2 in water bodies and in drylands to combat climate change, soil loss and desertification.}, journal = {New biotechnology}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {109-120}, doi = {10.1016/j.nbt.2013.12.002}, pmid = {24355428}, issn = {1876-4347}, mesh = {Bacteria/*metabolism ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/economics ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {The growing concern for the increase of the global warming effects due to anthropogenic activities raises the challenge of finding novel technological approaches to stabilize CO2 emissions in the atmosphere and counteract impinging interconnected issues such as desertification and loss of biodiversity. Biological-CO2 mitigation, triggered through biological fixation, is considered a promising and eco-sustainable method, mostly owing to its downstream benefits that can be exploited. Microorganisms such as cyanobacteria, green algae and some autotrophic bacteria could potentially fix CO2 more efficiently than higher plants, due to their faster growth. Some examples of the potential of biological-CO2 mitigation are reported and discussed in this paper. In arid and semiarid environments, soil carbon sequestration (CO2 fixation) by cyanobacteria and biological soil crusts is considered an eco-friendly and natural process to increase soil C content and a viable pathway to soil restoration after one disturbance event. Another way for biological-CO2 mitigation intensively studied in the last few years is related to the possibility to perform carbon dioxide sequestration using microalgae, obtaining at the same time bioproducts of industrial interest. Another possibility under study is the exploitation of specific chemotrophic bacteria, such as Ralstonia eutropha (or picketii) and related organisms, for CO2 fixation coupled with the production chemicals such as polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs). In spite of the potential of these processes, multiple factors still have to be optimized for maximum rate of CO2 fixation by these microorganisms. The optimization of culture conditions, including the optimal concentration of CO2 in the provided gas, the use of metabolic engineering and of dual purpose systems for the treatment of wastewater and production of biofuels and high value products within a biorefinery concept, the design of photobioreactors in the case of phototrophs are some of the issues that, among others, have to be addressed and tested for cost-effective CO2 sequestration.}, }
@article {pmid24351735, year = {2013}, author = {Panic, M and Ford, JD}, title = {A review of national-level adaptation planning with regards to the risks posed by climate change on infectious diseases in 14 OECD nations.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, pages = {7083-7109}, pmid = {24351735}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Developed Countries ; *Government Programs ; *Health Planning ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to have significant implications for human health, particularly through alterations of the incidence, prevalence, and distribution of infectious diseases. In the context of these risks, governments in high income nations have begun developing strategies to reduce potential climate change impacts and increase health system resilience (i.e., adaptation). In this paper, we review and evaluate national-level adaptation planning in relation to infectious disease risks in 14 OECD countries with respect to "best practices" for adaptation identified in peer-reviewed literature. We find a number of limitations to current planning, including negligible consideration of the needs of vulnerable population groups, limited emphasis on local risks, and inadequate attention to implementation logistics, such as available funding and timelines for evaluation. The nature of planning documents varies widely between nations, four of which currently lack adaptation plans. In those countries where planning documents were available, adaptations were mainstreamed into existing public health programs, and prioritized a sectoral, rather than multidisciplinary, approach. The findings are consistent with other scholarship examining adaptation planning indicating an ad hoc and fragmented process, and support the need for enhanced attention to adaptation to infectious disease risks in public health policy at a national level.}, }
@article {pmid24349454, year = {2013}, author = {Burger, C and Nord, A and Nilsson, J&#xc5; and Gilot-Fromont, E and Both, C}, title = {Fitness consequences of northward dispersal as possible adaptation to climate change, using experimental translocation of a migratory passerine.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e83176}, pmid = {24349454}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Passeriformes/*physiology ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change leads to rapid, differential changes in phenology across trophic levels, often resulting in temporal mismatches between predators and their prey. If a species cannot easily adjust its timing, it can adapt by choosing a new breeding location with a later phenology of its prey. In this study, we experimentally investigated whether long-distance dispersal to northern breeding grounds with a later phenology could be a feasible process to restore the match between timing of breeding and peak food abundance and thus improve reproductive success. Here, we report the successful translocation of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) to natural breeding sites 560 km to the Northeast. We expected translocated birds to have a fitness advantage with respect to environmental phenology, but to potentially pay costs through the lack of other locally adapted traits. Translocated individuals started egg laying 11 days earlier than northern control birds, which were translocated only within the northern site. The number of fledglings produced was somewhat lower in translocated birds, compared to northern controls, and fledglings were in lower body condition. Translocated individuals were performing not significantly different to control birds that remained at the original southern site. The lack of advantage of the translocated individuals most likely resulted from the exceptionally cold spring in which the experiment was carried out. Our results, however, suggest that pied flycatchers can successfully introduce their early breeding phenotype after dispersing to more northern areas, and thus that adaptation through dispersal is a viable option for populations that get locally maladapted through climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24347800, year = {2013}, author = {Evans, LS and Hicks, CC and Fidelman, P and Tobin, RC and Perry, AL}, title = {Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.}, journal = {Human ecology: an interdisciplinary journal}, volume = {41}, number = {6}, pages = {841-857}, pmid = {24347800}, issn = {0300-7839}, abstract = {Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2-3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting 'limited' and 'ideal' ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts.}, }
@article {pmid24346860, year = {2014}, author = {Meyer, AL and Pie, MR and Passos, FC}, title = {Assessing the exposure of lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) to future climate change.}, journal = {American journal of primatology}, volume = {76}, number = {6}, pages = {551-562}, doi = {10.1002/ajp.22247}, pmid = {24346860}, issn = {1098-2345}, mesh = {Animals ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geographic Information Systems ; *Leontopithecus ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Understanding how biodiversity will respond to climate change is a major challenge in conservation science. Climatic changes are likely to impose serious threats to many organisms, especially those with narrow distribution ranges, small populations and low dispersal capacity. Lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) are endangered primates endemic to Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF), and all four living species are typical examples of these aggravating conditions. Here, we integrate ecological niche modeling and GIS-based information about BAF remnants and protected areas to estimate the exposure (i.e., the extent of climate change predicted to be experienced by a species) of current suitable habitats to climate change for 2050 and 2080, and to evaluate the efficacy of existing reserves to protect climatically suitable areas. Niche models were built using Maxent and then projected onto seven global circulation models derived from the A1B climatic scenario. According to our projections, the occurrence area of L. caissara will be little exposed to climate change. Western populations of L. chrysomelas could be potentially exposed, while climatically suitable habitats will be maintained only in part of the eastern region. Protected areas that presently harbor large populations of L. chrysopygus and L. rosalia will not retain climatic suitability by 2080. Monitoring trends of exposed populations and protecting areas predicted to hold suitable conditions should be prioritized. Given the potential exposure of key lion tamarin populations, we stress the importance of conducting additional studies to assess other aspects of their vulnerability (i.e., sensitivity to climate and adaptive capacity) and, therefore, to provide a more solid framework for future management decisions in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24344568, year = {2013}, author = {Eklund, AG and Altshuler, SL and Altshuler, PC and Chow, JC and Hidy, GM and Lloyd, AC and Prather, MJ and Watson, JG and Zalzal, P and Andersen, SO and Halberstadt, ML and Borgford-Parnello, N}, title = {Stratospheric ozone, global warming, and the principle of unintended consequences--an ongoing science and policy story.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {63}, number = {11}, pages = {1235-1244}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2013.847317}, pmid = {24344568}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {*Global Warming/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Hydrocarbons, Halogenated/*chemistry ; Nitrous Oxide/chemistry ; *Ozone Depletion/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid24344314, year = {2014}, author = {Rosenzweig, C and Elliott, J and Deryng, D and Ruane, AC and Müller, C and Arneth, A and Boote, KJ and Folberth, C and Glotter, M and Khabarov, N and Neumann, K and Piontek, F and Pugh, TA and Schmid, E and Stehfest, E and Yang, H and Jones, JW}, title = {Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {9}, pages = {3268-3273}, pmid = {24344314}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Forecasting ; Geography ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Risk Assessment ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid24344289, year = {2014}, author = {Schewe, J and Heinke, J and Gerten, D and Haddeland, I and Arnell, NW and Clark, DB and Dankers, R and Eisner, S and Fekete, BM and Colón-González, FJ and Gosling, SN and Kim, H and Liu, X and Masaki, Y and Portmann, FT and Satoh, Y and Stacke, T and Tang, Q and Wada, Y and Wisser, D and Albrecht, T and Frieler, K and Piontek, F and Warszawski, L and Kabat, P}, title = {Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {9}, pages = {3245-3250}, pmid = {24344289}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forecasting ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Population Growth ; Temperature ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.}, }
@article {pmid24344285, year = {2014}, author = {Nelson, GC and Valin, H and Sands, RD and Havlík, P and Ahammad, H and Deryng, D and Elliott, J and Fujimori, S and Hasegawa, T and Heyhoe, E and Kyle, P and Von Lampe, M and Lotze-Campen, H and Mason d'Croz, D and van Meijl, H and van der Mensbrugghe, D and Müller, C and Popp, A and Robertson, R and Robinson, S and Schmid, E and Schmitz, C and Tabeau, A and Willenbockel, D}, title = {Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {9}, pages = {3274-3279}, pmid = {24344285}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Commerce/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Computer Simulation ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Models, Economic ; }, abstract = {Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24344283, year = {2014}, author = {Elliott, J and Deryng, D and Müller, C and Frieler, K and Konzmann, M and Gerten, D and Glotter, M and Flörke, M and Wada, Y and Best, N and Eisner, S and Fekete, BM and Folberth, C and Foster, I and Gosling, SN and Haddeland, I and Khabarov, N and Ludwig, F and Masaki, Y and Olin, S and Rosenzweig, C and Ruane, AC and Satoh, Y and Schmid, E and Stacke, T and Tang, Q and Wisser, D}, title = {Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {9}, pages = {3239-3244}, pmid = {24344283}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {S10 RR029030/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; S10 RR029030-01/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation/economics/*methods ; Agriculture/economics/*methods ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Forecasting ; *Models, Theoretical ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.}, }
@article {pmid24344275, year = {2014}, author = {Haddeland, I and Heinke, J and Biemans, H and Eisner, S and Flörke, M and Hanasaki, N and Konzmann, M and Ludwig, F and Masaki, Y and Schewe, J and Stacke, T and Tessler, ZD and Wada, Y and Wisser, D}, title = {Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {111}, number = {9}, pages = {3251-3256}, pmid = {24344275}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Forecasting ; Human Activities/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Water Cycle ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.}, }
@article {pmid24343971, year = {2014}, author = {Kristiansen, T and Stock, C and Drinkwater, KF and Curchitser, EN}, title = {Mechanistic insights into the effects of climate change on larval cod.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {1559-1584}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12489}, pmid = {24343971}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Gadus morhua/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Longevity ; Models, Biological ; Phytoplankton/physiology ; Zooplankton/physiology ; }, abstract = {Understanding the biophysical mechanisms that shape variability in fisheries recruitment is critical for estimating the effects of climate change on fisheries. In this study, we used an Earth System Model (ESM) and a mechanistic individual-based model (IBM) for larval fish to analyze how climate change may impact the growth and survival of larval cod in the North Atlantic. We focused our analysis on five regions that span the current geographical range of cod and are known to contain important spawning populations. Under the SRES A2 (high emissions) scenario, the ESM-projected surface ocean temperatures are expected to increase by >1 °C for 3 of the 5 regions, and stratification is expected to increase at all sites between 1950-1999 and 2050-2099. This enhanced stratification is projected to decrease large (>5 μm ESD) phytoplankton productivity and mesozooplankton biomass at all 5 sites. Higher temperatures are projected to increase larval metabolic costs, which combined with decreased food resources will reduce larval weight, increase the probability of larvae dying from starvation and increase larval exposure to visual and invertebrate predators at most sites. If current concentrations of piscivore and invertebrate predators are maintained, larval survival is projected to decrease at all five sites by 2050-2099. In contrast to past observed responses to climate variability in which warm anomalies led to better recruitment in cold-water stocks, our simulations indicated that reduced prey availability under climate change may cause a reduction in larval survival despite higher temperatures in these regions. In the lower prey environment projected under climate change, higher metabolic costs due to higher temperatures outweigh the advantages of higher growth potential, leading to negative effects on northern cod stocks. Our results provide an important first large-scale assessment of the impacts of climate change on larval cod in the North Atlantic.}, }
@article {pmid24341985, year = {2014}, author = {Kreyling, J and Jentsch, A and Beier, C}, title = {Beyond realism in climate change experiments: gradient approaches identify thresholds and tipping points.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {125-e1}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12193}, pmid = {24341985}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Theoretical ; Research Design/*trends ; }, abstract = {Experimental evidence for impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on ecosystems is urgently needed. The constraint in our knowledge, however, is not caused by the uncertainty in the applied climate scenarios. We need mechanistic understanding from experiments challenging ecological thresholds coupled with ecosystem models to allow for meaningful up-scaling.}, }
@article {pmid24340194, year = {2013}, author = {Vehmaa, A and Hogfors, H and Gorokhova, E and Brutemark, A and Holmborn, T and Engström-Öst, J}, title = {Projected marine climate change: effects on copepod oxidative status and reproduction.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {13}, pages = {4548-4557}, pmid = {24340194}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Zooplankton are an important link between primary producers and fish. Therefore, it is crucial to address their responses when predicting effects of climate change on pelagic ecosystems. For realistic community-level predictions, several biotic and abiotic climate-related variables should be examined in combination. We studied the combined effects of ocean acidification and global warming predicted for year 2100 with toxic cyanobacteria on the calanoid copepod, Acartia bifilosa. Acidification together with higher temperature reduced copepod antioxidant capacity. Higher temperature also decreased egg viability, nauplii development, and oxidative status. Exposure to cyanobacteria and its toxin had a negative effect on egg production but, a positive effect on oxidative status and egg viability, giving no net effects on viable egg production. Additionally, nauplii development was enhanced by the presence of cyanobacteria, which partially alleviated the otherwise negative effects of increased temperature and decreased pH on the copepod recruitment. The interactive effects of temperature, acidification, and cyanobacteria on copepods highlight the importance of testing combined effects of climate-related factors when predicting biological responses.}, }
@article {pmid24340100, year = {2013}, author = {Shabani, F and Kumar, L}, title = {Risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in areas suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) cultivation under various climate change projections.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e83404}, pmid = {24340100}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Algorithms ; Arecaceae/*microbiology ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/microbiology ; Forecasting ; Fusarium/*pathogenicity ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; Risk ; Software ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Global climate model outputs involve uncertainties in prediction, which could be reduced by identifying agreements between the output results of different models, covering all assumptions included in each. Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. is an invasive pathogen that poses risk to date palm cultivation, among other crops. Therefore, in this study, the future distribution of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., confirmed by CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR) GCMs, was modeled and combined with the future distribution of date palm predicted by the same GCMs, to identify areas suitable for date palm cultivation with different risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. Results showed that 40%, 37%, 33% and 28% areas projected to become highly conducive to date palm are under high risk of its lethal fungus, compared with 37%, 39%, 43% and 42% under low risk, for the chosen years respectively. Our study also indicates that areas with marginal risk will be limited to 231, 212, 186 and 172 million hectares by 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. The study further demonstrates that CLIMEX outputs refined by a combination of different GCMs results of different species that have symbiosis or parasite relationship, ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication.}, }
@article {pmid25602403, year = {2013}, author = {Adviento-Borbe, MA and Pittelkow, CM and Anders, M and van Kessel, C and Hill, JE and McClung, AM and Six, J and Linquist, BA}, title = {Optimal fertilizer nitrogen rates and yield-scaled global warming potential in drill seeded rice.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {42}, number = {6}, pages = {1623-1634}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2013.05.0167}, pmid = {25602403}, issn = {0047-2425}, abstract = {Drill seeded rice (L.) is the dominant rice cultivation practice in the United States. Although drill seeded systems can lead to significant CH and NO emissions due to anaerobic and aerobic soil conditions, the relationship between high-yielding management practices, particularly fertilizer N management, and total global warming potential (GWP) remains unclear. We conducted three field experiments in California and Arkansas to test the hypothesis that by optimizing grain yield through N management, the lowest yield-scaled global warming potential (GWP = GWP Mg grain) is achieved. Each growing season, urea was applied at rates ranging from 0 to 224 kg N ha before the permanent flood. Emissions of CH and NO were measured daily to weekly during growing seasons and fallow periods. Annual CH emissions ranged from 9.3 to 193 kg CH-C ha yr across sites, and annual NO emissions averaged 1.3 kg NO-N ha yr. Relative to NO emissions, CH dominated growing season (82%) and annual (68%) GWP. The impacts of fertilizer N rates on GHG fluxes were confined to the growing season, with increasing N rate having little effect on CH emissions but contributing to greater NO emissions during nonflooded periods. The fallow period contributed between 7 and 39% of annual GWP across sites years. This finding illustrates the need to include fallow period measurements in annual emissions estimates. Growing season GWP ranged from 130 to 686 kg CO eq Mg season across sites and years. Fertilizer N rate had no significant effect on GWP; therefore, achieving the highest productivity is not at the cost of higher GWP.}, }
@article {pmid25844020, year = {2013}, author = {Reed, MS and Podesta, G and Fazey, I and Geeson, N and Hessel, R and Hubacek, K and Letson, D and Nainggolan, D and Prell, C and Rickenbach, MG and Ritsema, C and Schwilch, G and Stringer, LC and Thomas, AD}, title = {Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.}, journal = {Ecological economics : the journal of the International Society for Ecological Economics}, volume = {94}, number = {}, pages = {66-77}, pmid = {25844020}, issn = {0921-8009}, abstract = {Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24839448, year = {2013}, author = {Zhang, R and Duhl, T and Salam, MT and House, JM and Flagan, RC and Avol, EL and Gilliland, FD and Guenther, A and Chung, SH and Lamb, BK and VanReken, TM}, title = {Development of a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on allergic airway disease.}, journal = {Biogeosciences (Online)}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {3977-4023}, pmid = {24839448}, issn = {1726-4170}, support = {P30 ES007048/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Exposure to bioaerosol allergens such as pollen can cause exacerbations of allergenic airway disease (AAD) in sensitive populations, and thus cause serious public health problems. Assessing these health impacts by linking the airborne pollen levels, concentrations of respirable allergenic material, and human allergenic response under current and future climate conditions is a key step toward developing preventive and adaptive actions. To that end, a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework was developed that treats allergenic pollens as non-reactive tracers within the WRF/CMAQ air-quality modeling system. The Simulator of the Timing and Magnitude of Pollen Season (STaMPS) model was used to generate a daily pollen pool that can then be emitted into the atmosphere by wind. The STaMPS is driven by species-specific meteorological (temperature and/or precipitation) threshold conditions and is designed to be flexible with respect to its representation of vegetation species and plant functional types (PFTs). The hourly pollen emission flux was parameterized by considering the pollen pool, friction velocity, and wind threshold values. The dry deposition velocity of each species of pollen was estimated based on pollen grain size and density. An evaluation of the pollen modeling framework was conducted for southern California for the period from March to June 2010. This period coincided with observations by the University of Southern California's Children's Health Study (CHS), which included O3, PM2.5, and pollen count, as well as measurements of exhaled nitric oxide in study participants. Two nesting domains with horizontal resolutions of 12 km and 4 km were constructed, and six representative allergenic pollen genera were included: birch tree, walnut tree, mulberry tree, olive tree, oak tree, and brome grasses. Under the current parameterization scheme, the modeling framework tends to underestimate walnut and peak oak pollen concentrations, and tends to overestimate grass pollen concentrations. The model shows reasonable agreement with observed birch, olive, and mulberry tree pollen concentrations. Sensitivity studies suggest that the estimation of the pollen pool is a major source of uncertainty for simulated pollen concentrations. Achieving agreement between emission modeling and observed pattern of pollen releases is the key for successful pollen concentration simulations.}, }
@article {pmid24832806, year = {2013}, author = {Wilson, WH}, title = {A deeper statistical examination of arrival dates of migratory breeding birds in relation to global climate change.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {742-754}, pmid = {24832806}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Using an 18-year dataset of arrival dates of 65 species of Maine migratory breeding birds, I take a deeper view of the data to ask questions about the shapes of the distribution. For each year, most species show a consistent right-skewed pattern of distribution, suggesting that selection is stronger against individuals that arrive too early compared to those that arrive later. Distributions are consistently leptokurtic, indicating a narrow window of optimal arrival dates. Species that arrive earlier in the spring show higher skewness and kurtosis values. Nectarivorous species showed more pronounced skewness. Wintering area did not explain patterns of skewness or kurtosis. Deviations from average temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation index explained little variation in skewness and kurtosis. When arrival date distributions are broken down into different medians (e.g., 5% median and 75% median), stronger correlations emerge for portions of the distribution that are adjacent, suggesting species fine-tune the progress of their migration. Interspecific correlations for birds arriving around the same time are stronger for earliest migrants (the 25% median) compared to the true median and the 75% median.}, }
@article {pmid24832670, year = {2013}, author = {Ross, PM and Adam, P}, title = {Climate change and intertidal wetlands.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {445-480}, pmid = {24832670}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause-the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the "squeeze" experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid24501055, year = {2012}, author = {Ziter, C and Robinson, EA and Newman, JA}, title = {Climate change and voltinism in Californian insect pest species: sensitivity to location, scenario and climate model choice.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {2771-2780}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02748.x}, pmid = {24501055}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Experimental studies of the impact of climatic change are hampered by their inability to consider multiple climate change scenarios and indeed often consider no more than simple climate sensitivity such as a uniform increase in temperature. Modelling efforts offer the ability to consider a much wider range of realistic climate projections and are therefore useful, in particular, for estimating the sensitivity of impact predictions to differences in geographical location, and choice of climate change scenario and climate model projections. In this study, we used well-established degree-day models to predict the voltinism of 13 agronomically important pests in California, USA. We ran these models using the projections from three Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Global Circulation Models (AOCGCMs or GCMs), in conjunction with the SRES scenarios. We ran these for two locations representing northern and southern California. We did this for both the 2050s and 2090s. We used anova to partition the variation in the resulting voltinism among time period, climate change scenario, GCM and geographical location. For these 13 pest species, the choice of climate model explained an average of 42% of the total variation in voltinism, far more than did geographical location (33%), time period (17%) or scenario (1%). The remaining 7% of the variation was explained by various interactions, of which the location by GCM interaction was the strongest (5%). Regardless of these sources of uncertainty, a robust conclusion from our work is that all 13 pest species are likely to experience increases in the number of generations that they complete each year. Such increased voltinism is likely to have significant consequences for crop protection and production.}, }
@article {pmid24501054, year = {2012}, author = {Jenouvrier, S and Holland, M and Stroeve, J and Barbraud, C and Weimerskirch, H and Serreze, M and Caswell, H}, title = {Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {2756-2770}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x}, pmid = {24501054}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa , because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa . We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa , which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems.}, }
@article {pmid24501053, year = {2012}, author = {Fordham, DA and Watts, MJ and Delean, S and Brook, BW and Heard, LM and Bull, CM}, title = {Managed relocation as an adaptation strategy for mitigating climate change threats to the persistence of an endangered lizard.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {2743-2755}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02742.x}, pmid = {24501053}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {The distributional ranges of many species are contracting with habitat conversion and climate change. For vertebrates, informed strategies for translocations are an essential option for decisions about their conservation management. The pygmy bluetongue lizard, Tiliqua adelaidensis, is an endangered reptile with a highly restricted distribution, known from only a small number of natural grassland fragments in South Australia. Land-use changes over the last century have converted perennial native grasslands into croplands, pastures and urban areas, causing substantial contraction of the species' range due to loss of essential habitat. Indeed, the species was thought to be extinct until its rediscovery in 1992. We develop coupled-models that link habitat suitability with stochastic demographic processes to estimate extinction risk and to explore the efficacy of potential climate adaptation options. These coupled-models offer improvements over simple bioclimatic envelope models for estimating the impacts of climate change on persistence probability. Applying this coupled-model approach to T. adelaidensis, we show that: (i) climate-driven changes will adversely impact the expected minimum abundance of populations and could cause extinction without management intervention, (ii) adding artificial burrows might enhance local population density, however, without targeted translocations this measure has a limited effect on extinction risk, (iii) managed relocations are critical for safeguarding lizard population persistence, as a sole or joint action and (iv) where to source and where to relocate animals in a program of translocations depends on the velocity, extent and nonlinearities in rates of climate-induced habitat change. These results underscore the need to consider managed relocations as part of any multifaceted plan to compensate the effects of habitat loss or shifting environmental conditions on species with low dispersal capacity. More broadly, we provide the first step towards a more comprehensive framework for integrating extinction risk, managed relocations and climate change information into range-wide conservation management.}, }
@article {pmid24501050, year = {2012}, author = {Wetzel, FT and Kissling, WD and Beissmann, H and Penn, DJ}, title = {Future climate change driven sea-level rise: secondary consequences from human displacement for island biodiversity.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {2707-2719}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02736.x}, pmid = {24501050}, issn = {1365-2486}, abstract = {Sea-level rise (SLR) due to global warming will result in the loss of many coastal areas. The direct or primary effects due to inundation and erosion from SLR are currently being assessed; however, the indirect or secondary ecological effects, such as changes caused by the displacement of human populations, have not been previously evaluated. We examined the potential ecological consequences of future SLR on >1,200 islands in the Southeast Asian and the Pacific region. Using three SLR scenarios (1, 3, and 6 m elevation, where 1 m approximates most predictions by the end of this century), we assessed the consequences of primary and secondary SLR effects from human displacement on habitat availability and distributions of selected mammal species. We estimate that between 3-32% of the coastal zone of these islands could be lost from primary effects, and consequently 8-52 million people would become SLR refugees. Assuming that inundated urban and intensive agricultural areas will be relocated with an equal area of habitat loss in the hinterland, we project that secondary SLR effects can lead to an equal or even higher percent range loss than primary effects for at least 10-18% of the sample mammals in a moderate range loss scenario and for 22-46% in a maximum range loss scenario. In addition, we found some species to be more vulnerable to secondary than primary effects. Finally, we found high spatial variation in vulnerability: species on islands in Oceania are more vulnerable to primary SLR effects, whereas species on islands in Indo-Malaysia, with potentially 7-48 million SLR refugees, are more vulnerable to secondary effects. Our findings show that primary and secondary SLR effects can have enormous consequences for human inhabitants and island biodiversity, and that both need to be incorporated into ecological risk assessment, conservation, and regional planning.}, }
@article {pmid25568044, year = {2012}, author = {Ishizuka, W and Goto, S}, title = {Modeling intraspecific adaptation of Abies sachalinensis to local altitude and responses to global warming, based on a 36-year reciprocal transplant experiment.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {5}, number = {3}, pages = {229-244}, pmid = {25568044}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Intraspecific adaptation in Abies sachalinensis was examined using models based on long-term monitoring data gathered during a reciprocal transplant experiment with eight seed source populations and six transplantation sites along an altitudinal gradient. The consequence of local adaptation was evaluated by testing the home-site advantage for upslope and downslope transplants at five ages. The populations' fitness-linked trait was set as their productivity (tree height × survival rate) at each age. The effects of global warming were evaluated on the basis of the 36-year performance of downslope transplants. Evidence was found for adaptive genetic variation affecting both height and survival from an early age. Increasing the distance between seed source and planting site significantly reduced productivity for both upslope and downslope transplantation, demonstrating the existence of a significant home-site advantage. The decrease in productivity was most distinct for upslope transplantations, indicating strong local adaptation to high altitudes. Global warming is predicted to increase the productivity of high-altitude populations. However, owing to their existing local adaptation, all tested populations exhibited lower productivity under warming than demes that were optimal for the new climate. These negative predictions should be considered when planning the management of locally adapted plant species such as A. sachalinensis.}, }
@article {pmid24808720, year = {2012}, author = {Semenza, JC and Herbst, S and Rechenburg, A and Suk, JE and Höser, C and Schreiber, C and Kistemann, T}, title = {Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases.}, journal = {Critical reviews in environmental science and technology}, volume = {42}, number = {8}, pages = {857-890}, pmid = {24808720}, issn = {1064-3389}, abstract = {The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998-2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options.}, }
@article {pmid24749382, year = {2012}, author = {Tayade, PR and Sapkal, VS and Sapkal, RS and Deshmukh, SK and Rode, CV and Shinde, VM and Kanade, GS}, title = {A method to minimize the global warming and environmental pollution.}, journal = {Journal of environmental science &amp; engineering}, volume = {54}, number = {2}, pages = {287-293}, pmid = {24749382}, mesh = {Adsorption ; Carbon Dioxide/*isolation &amp; purification ; Charcoal/*chemistry ; Environmental Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Fertilizers ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {There has been continuous increase in the level of CO2 in atmosphere. Therefore, it is essential to develop an economical and convenient process to reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. In this study, we have proposed an economical and efficient adsorption method to minimize the environmental CO2. A fluidized bed adsorption column was used, fabricated using cast iron sheet. The low prize pyrolyzed biochar prepared from farming biomass (crushed fine powder) was used as an adsorbent to adsorb CO2 from the mixture of air and CO2 (99.5% air and 0.5% CO2). The experimental observation was taken for the % removal of CO2 from the mixture of air and CO2, development of adsorption isotherm and to study the effect of pressure and inlet gas flow rate on the amount of CO2 adsorbed per kg of biochar. The exhausted (CO2 adsorbed) biochar from the fluidized column was tested as a fertilizer for the wheat crop and it has given near about 10% increase in the height of wheat crop within the first 10 days after sowing the wheat seeds. On the basis of this experimentation, we have proposed a hypothetical method, using above mentioned fluidized bed column and biochar as adsorbent to reduce the CO2 concentration in the highly polluted regions.}, }
@article {pmid25568038, year = {2012}, author = {Urban, MC and De Meester, L and Vellend, M and Stoks, R and Vanoverbeke, J}, title = {A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {154-167}, pmid = {25568038}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The 'evolving metacommunity' framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats.}, }
@article {pmid24771989, year = {2012}, author = {Semenza, JC and Höuser, C and Herbst, S and Rechenburg, A and Suk, JE and Frechen, T and Kistemann, T}, title = {Knowledge Mapping for Climate Change and Food- and Waterborne Diseases.}, journal = {Critical reviews in environmental science and technology}, volume = {42}, number = {4}, pages = {378-411}, pmid = {24771989}, issn = {1064-3389}, abstract = {The authors extracted from the PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases all articles published between 1998 and 2009 that were relevant to climate change and food- and waterborne diseases. Any material within each article that provided information about a relevant pathogen and its relationship with climate and climate change was summarized as a key fact, entered into a relational knowledge base, and tagged with the terminology (predefined terms) used in the field. These terms were organized, quantified, and mapped according to predefined hierarchical categories. For noncholera Vibrio sp. and Cryptosporidium sp., data on climatic and environmental influences (52% and 49% of the total number of key facts, respectively) pertained to specific weather phenomena (as opposed to climate change phenomena) and environmental determinants, whereas information on the potential effects of food-related determinants that might be related to climate or climate change were virtually absent. This proportion was lower for the other pathogens studied (Campylobacter sp. 40%, Salmonella sp. 27%, Norovirus 25%, Listeria sp. 8%), but they all displayed a distinct concentration of information on general food-and water-related determinants or effects, albeit with little detail. Almost no information was available concerning the potential effects of changes in climatic variables on the pathogens evaluated, such as changes in air or water temperature, precipitation, humidity, UV radiation, wind, cloud coverage, sunshine hours, or seasonality. Frequency profiles revealed an abundance of data on weather and food-specific determinants, but also exposed extensive data deficiencies, particularly with regard to the potential effects of climate change on the pathogens evaluated. A reprioritization of public health research is warranted to ensure that funding is dedicated to explicitly studying the effects of changes in climate variables on food- and waterborne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid26005231, year = {2012}, author = {Golombek, R and Kittelsen, SA and Haddeland, I}, title = {Climate change: impacts on electricity markets in Western Europe.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {113}, number = {2}, pages = {357-370}, pmid = {26005231}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {This paper studies some impacts of climate change on electricity markets, focusing on three climate effects. First, demand for electricity is affected because of changes in the temperature. Second, changes in precipitation and temperature have impact on supply of hydro electric production through a shift in the inflow of water. Third, plant efficiency for thermal generation will decrease because the temperature of water used to cool equipment increases. To find the magnitude of these partial effects, as well as the overall effects, on Western European energy markets, we use the multi-market equilibrium model LIBEMOD. We find that each of the three partial effects changes the average electricity producer price by less than 2%, while the net effect is an increase of only 1%. The partial effects on total electricity supply are small, and the net effect is a decrease of 4%. The greatest effects are found for Nordic countries with a large market share for reservoir hydro. In these countries, annual production of electricity increases by 8%, reflecting more inflow of water, while net exports doubles. In addition, because of lower inflow in summer and higher in winter, the reservoir filling needed to transfer water from summer to winter is drastically reduced in the Nordic countries.}, }
@article {pmid26005230, year = {2012}, author = {Ford, JD and Vanderbilt, W and Berrang-Ford, L}, title = {Authorship in IPCC AR5 and its implications for content: climate change and Indigenous populations in WGII.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {113}, number = {2}, pages = {201-213}, pmid = {26005230}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {This essay examines the extent to which we can expect Indigenous Knowledge, understanding, and voices on climate change ('Indigenous content') to be captured in WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), based on an analysis of chapter authorship. Reviewing the publishing history of 309 chapter authors (CAs) to WGII, we document 9 (2.9%) to have published on climate change and Indigenous populations and involved as authors in 6/30 chapters. Drawing upon recent scholarship highlighting how authorship affect structure and content of assessment reports, we argue that, unaddressed, this will affect the extent to which Indigenous content is examined and assessed. While it is too late to alter the structure of AR5, there are opportunities to prioritize the recruitment of contributing authors and reviewers with expertise on Indigenous issues, raise awareness among CAs on the characteristics of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability faced by Indigenous peoples, and highlight how Indigenous perspectives can help broaden our understanding of climate change and policy interventions.}, }
@article {pmid26005229, year = {2012}, author = {Immerzeel, WW and van Beek, LP and Konz, M and Shrestha, AB and Bierkens, MF}, title = {Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {110}, number = {3-4}, pages = {721-736}, pmid = {26005229}, issn = {0165-0009}, abstract = {The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future development of the glaciers and the runoff using an ensemble of downscaled climate model data in the Langtang catchment in Nepal. The analysis shows that both temperature and precipitation are projected to increase which results in a steady decline of the glacier area. The river flow is projected to increase significantly due to the increased precipitation and ice melt and the transition towards a rain river. Rain runoff and base flow will increase at the expense of glacier runoff. However, as the melt water peak coincides with the monsoon peak, no shifts in the hydrograph are expected.}, }
@article {pmid25834296, year = {2012}, author = {Lelieveld, J and Hadjinicolaou, P and Kostopoulou, E and Chenoweth, J and El Maayar, M and Giannakopoulos, C and Hannides, C and Lange, MA and Tanarhte, M and Tyrlis, E and Xoplaki, E}, title = {Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {114}, number = {3-4}, pages = {667-687}, pmid = {25834296}, issn = {0165-0009}, support = {226144/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, abstract = {The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5-7°C between the 1961-1990 reference period and the period 2070-2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe - Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.}, }
@article {pmid25568025, year = {2012}, author = {Gilman, RT and Fabina, NS and Abbott, KC and Rafferty, NE}, title = {Evolution of plant-pollinator mutualisms in response to climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {2-16}, pmid = {25568025}, issn = {1752-4571}, support = {K12 GM000708/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change has the potential to desynchronize the phenologies of interdependent species, with potentially catastrophic effects on mutualist populations. Phenologies can evolve, but the role of evolution in the response of mutualisms to climate change is poorly understood. We developed a model that explicitly considers both the evolution and the population dynamics of a plant-pollinator mutualism under climate change. How the populations evolve, and thus whether the populations and the mutualism persist, depends not only on the rate of climate change but also on the densities and phenologies of other species in the community. Abundant alternative mutualist partners with broad temporal distributions can make a mutualism more robust to climate change, while abundant alternative partners with narrow temporal distributions can make a mutualism less robust. How community composition and the rate of climate change affect the persistence of mutualisms is mediated by two-species Allee thresholds. Understanding these thresholds will help researchers to identify those mutualisms at highest risk owing to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25328254, year = {2012}, author = {Barreca, AI}, title = {Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States.}, journal = {Journal of environmental economics and management}, volume = {63}, number = {1}, pages = {19-34}, pmid = {25328254}, issn = {0095-0696}, support = {T32 AG000244/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973-2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects.}, }
@article {pmid24832524, year = {2012}, author = {Faith, DP and Richards, ZT}, title = {Climate change impacts on the tree of life: changes in phylogenetic diversity illustrated for acropora corals.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {906-932}, pmid = {24832524}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {The possible loss of whole branches from the tree of life is a dramatic, but under-studied, biological implication of climate change. The tree of life represents an evolutionary heritage providing both present and future benefits to humanity, often in unanticipated ways. Losses in this evolutionary (evo) life-support system represent losses in "evosystem" services, and are quantified using the phylogenetic diversity (PD) measure. High species-level biodiversity losses may or may not correspond to high PD losses. If climate change impacts are clumped on the phylogeny, then loss of deeper phylogenetic branches can mean disproportionately large PD loss for a given degree of species loss. Over time, successive species extinctions within a clade each may imply only a moderate loss of PD, until the last species within that clade goes extinct, and PD drops precipitously. Emerging methods of "phylogenetic risk analysis" address such phylogenetic tipping points by adjusting conservation priorities to better reflect risk of such worst-case losses. We have further developed and explored this approach for one of the most threatened taxonomic groups, corals. Based on a phylogenetic tree for the corals genus Acropora, we identify cases where worst-case PD losses may be avoided by designing risk-averse conservation priorities. We also propose spatial heterogeneity measures changes to assess possible changes in the geographic distribution of corals PD.}, }
@article {pmid24832520, year = {2012}, author = {Dainese, M}, title = {Using natural gradients to infer a potential response to climate change: an example on the reproductive performance of dactylis glomerata L.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {857-868}, pmid = {24832520}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {An understanding of the climate conditions governing spatial variation in the reproductive performance of plants can provide important information about the factors characterizing plant community structure, especially in the context of climate change. This study focuses on the effect of climate on the sexual reproductive output of Dactylis glomerata L., a perennial grass species widely distributed throughout temperate regions. An indirect space-for-time substitution procedure was used. Sixty mountain populations of the same target species were surveyed along an elevation gradient, and then, a relevant climate model was used to infer a potential response to climate change over time. Within each population, information on the number of stems, seed number and seed mass were collected. Resource investment in reproduction (RIR) was quantified as seed number × seed mass. A clear variation was found in the reproductive performance of D. glomerata along the elevational gradient: RIR improved with increasing temperature. The best model included only one term: the maximum temperature of the warmest month. This study demonstrates that mountain ecosystems offer particularly good opportunities to study climate effects over relatively short distances and suggests that warming will enhance D. glomerata's reproductive output throughout its elevational range. Furthermore, it can be hypothesized that a potential migration of D. glomerata toward higher altitudes may occur in response to accelerated climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24832517, year = {2012}, author = {Simmons, CL and Auld, TD and Hutton, I and Baker, WJ and Shapcott, A}, title = {Will climate change, genetic and demographic variation or rat predation pose the greatest risk for persistence of an altitudinally distributed island endemic?.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {736-765}, pmid = {24832517}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Species endemic to mountains on oceanic islands are subject to a number of existing threats (in particular, invasive species) along with the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. The Lord Howe Island endemic palm Hedyscepe canterburyana is restricted to two mountains above 300 m altitude. Predation by the introduced Black Rat (Rattus rattus) is known to significantly reduce seedling recruitment. We examined the variation in Hedyscepe in terms of genetic variation, morphology, reproductive output and demographic structure, across an altitudinal gradient. We used demographic data to model population persistence under climate change predictions of upward range contraction incorporating long-term climatic records for Lord Howe Island. We also accounted for alternative levels of rat predation into the model to reflect management options for control. We found that Lord Howe Island is getting warmer and drier and quantified the degree of temperature change with altitude (0.9 °C per 100 m). For H. canterburyana, differences in development rates, population structure, reproductive output and population growth rate were identified between altitudes. In contrast, genetic variation was high and did not vary with altitude. There is no evidence of an upward range contraction as was predicted and recruitment was greatest at lower altitudes. Our models predicted slow population decline in the species and that the highest altitude populations are under greatest threat of extinction. Removal of rat predation would significantly enhance future persistence of this species.}, }
@article {pmid24832511, year = {2012}, author = {Ellison, JC and Zouh, I}, title = {Vulnerability to climate change of mangroves: assessment from cameroon, central Africa.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {617-638}, pmid = {24832511}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {Intertidal mangrove ecosystems are sensitive to climate change impacts, particularly to associated relative sea level rise. Human stressors and low tidal range add to vulnerability, both characteristics of the Doula Estuary, Cameroon. To investigate vulnerability, spatial techniques were combined with ground surveys to map distributions of mangrove zones, and compare with historical spatial records to quantify change over the last few decades. Low technology techniques were used to establish the tidal range and relative elevation of the mapped mangrove area. Stratigraphic coring and palaeobiological reconstruction were used to show the longer term biological history of mangroves and net sedimentation rate, and oral history surveys of local communities were used to provide evidence of recent change and identify possible causes. Results showed that the seaward edge of mangroves had over two thirds of the shoreline experienced dieback at up to 3 m per year over the last three decades, and an offshore mangrove island had suffered 89% loss. Results also showed low net sedimentation rates under seaward edge mangroves, and restricted intertidal elevation habitats of all mangroves, and Avicennia and Laguncularia in particular. To reduce vulnerability, adaptation planning can be improved by reducing the non-climate stressors on the mangrove area, particularly those resulting from human impacts. Other priorities for adaptation planning in mangrove areas that are located in such low tidal range regions are to plan inland migration areas and strategic protected areas for mangroves, and to undertake management activities that enhance accretion within the mangroves.}, }
@article {pmid24832510, year = {2012}, author = {Fujii, T}, title = {Climate Change, Sea-Level Rise and Implications for Coastal and Estuarine Shoreline Management with Particular Reference to the Ecology of Intertidal Benthic Macrofauna in NW Europe.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {597-616}, pmid = {24832510}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {In many European estuaries, extensive areas of intertidal habitats consist of bare mudflats and sandflats that harbour a very high abundance and biomass of macrobenthic invertebrates. The high stocks of macrobenthos in turn provide important food sources for the higher trophic levels such as fish and shorebirds. Climate change and associated sea-level rise will have potential to cause changes in coastal and estuarine physical properties in a number of ways and thereby influence the ecology of estuarine dependent organisms. Although the mechanisms involved in biological responses resulting from such environmental changes are complex, the ecological effects are likely to be significant for the estuarine benthic macrofauna and hence the consumers they support. This paper reviews the utilisation patterns of estuarine intertidal habitats by shorebirds, fish and crustaceans, as well as factors affecting the distribution, abundance and biomass of estuarine macrobenthos that is known to be important food source for these estuarine predators. This study also provides simple conceptual models of the likely impacts of sea-level rise on the physical and biological elements of estuarine intertidal habitats, and implications of these results are discussed in the context of sustainable long term flood and coastal management in estuarine environments.}, }
@article {pmid24832232, year = {2012}, author = {Grazer, VM and Martin, OY}, title = {Investigating climate change and reproduction: experimental tools from evolutionary biology.}, journal = {Biology}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {411-438}, pmid = {24832232}, issn = {2079-7737}, abstract = {It is now generally acknowledged that climate change has wide-ranging biological consequences, potentially leading to impacts on biodiversity. Environmental factors can have diverse and often strong effects on reproduction, with obvious ramifications for population fitness. Nevertheless, reproductive traits are often neglected in conservation considerations. Focusing on animals, recent progress in sexual selection and sexual conflict research suggests that reproductive costs may pose an underestimated hurdle during rapid climate change, potentially lowering adaptive potential and increasing extinction risk of certain populations. Nevertheless, regime shifts may have both negative and positive effects on reproduction, so it is important to acquire detailed experimental data. We hence present an overview of the literature reporting short-term reproductive consequences of exposure to different environmental factors. From the enormous diversity of findings, we conclude that climate change research could benefit greatly from more coordinated efforts incorporating evolutionary approaches in order to obtain cross-comparable data on how individual and population reproductive fitness respond in the long term. Therefore, we propose ideas and methods concerning future efforts dealing with reproductive consequences of climate change, in particular by highlighting the advantages of multi-generational experimental evolution experiments.}, }
@article {pmid25567976, year = {2011}, author = {Sgrò, CM and Lowe, AJ and Hoffmann, AA}, title = {Building evolutionary resilience for conserving biodiversity under climate change.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {326-337}, pmid = {25567976}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Evolution occurs rapidly and is an ongoing process in our environments. Evolutionary principles need to be built into conservation efforts, particularly given the stressful conditions organisms are increasingly likely to experience because of climate change and ongoing habitat fragmentation. The concept of evolutionary resilience is a way of emphasizing evolutionary processes in conservation and landscape planning. From an evolutionary perspective, landscapes need to allow in situ selection and capture high levels of genetic variation essential for responding to the direct and indirect effects of climate change. We summarize ideas that need to be considered in planning for evolutionary resilience and suggest how they might be incorporated into policy and management to ensure that resilience is maintained in the face of environmental degradation.}, }
@article {pmid25885293, year = {2011}, author = {Gadani, H and Vyas, A}, title = {Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.}, journal = {Anesthesia, essays and researches}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {5-10}, pmid = {25885293}, issn = {0259-1162}, abstract = {Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.}, }
@article {pmid25567941, year = {2010}, author = {Mercer, KL and Perales, HR}, title = {Evolutionary response of landraces to climate change in centers of crop diversity.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {3}, number = {5-6}, pages = {480-493}, pmid = {25567941}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Landraces cultivated in centers of crop diversity result from past and contemporary patterns of natural and farmer-mediated evolutionary forces. Successful in situ conservation of crop genetic resources depends on continuity of these evolutionary processes. Climate change is projected to affect agricultural production, yet analyses of impacts on in situ conservation of crop genetic diversity and farmers who conserve it have been absent. How will crop landraces respond to alterations in climate? We review the roles that phenotypic plasticity, evolution, and gene flow might play in sustaining production, although we might expect erosion of genetic diversity if landrace populations or entire races lose productivity. For example, highland maize landraces in southern Mexico do not express the plasticity necessary to sustain productivity under climate change, but may evolve in response to altered conditions. The outcome for any given crop in a given region will depend on the distribution of genetic variation that affects fitness and patterns of climate change. Understanding patterns of neutral and adaptive diversity from the population to the landscape scale is essential to clarify how landraces conserved in situ will continue to evolve and how to minimize genetic erosion of this essential natural resource.}, }
@article {pmid25567893, year = {2009}, author = {Franks, SJ and Weis, AE}, title = {Climate change alters reproductive isolation and potential gene flow in an annual plant.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {481-488}, pmid = {25567893}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Climate change will likely cause evolution due not only to selection but also to changes in reproductive isolation within and among populations. We examined the effects of a natural drought on the timing of flowering in two populations of Brassica rapa and the consequences for predicted reproductive isolation and potential gene flow. Seeds were collected before and after a 5-year drought in southern California from two populations varying in soil moisture. Lines derived from these seeds were raised in the greenhouse under wet and drought conditions. We found that the natural drought caused changes in reproductive timing and that the changes were greater for plants from the wet than from the dry site. This differential shift caused the populations to become more phenological similar, which should lead to less reproductive isolation and increased gene flow. We estimated a high level of assortative mating by flowering time, which potentially contributed to the rapid evolution of phenological traits following the drought. Estimates of assortative mating were higher for the wet site population, and assortative mating was reduced following the drought. This study shows that climate change can potentially alter gene flow and reproductive isolation within and among populations, strongly influencing evolution.}, }
@article {pmid25478068, year = {2009}, author = {Short, RV}, title = {Population growth and global warming.}, journal = {Facts, views &amp; vision in ObGyn}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {27-28}, pmid = {25478068}, issn = {2032-0418}, abstract = {When I was born in 1930, the human population of the world was a mere 2 billion. Today, it has already reached 6.8 billion, and is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050. That is unsustainable. It is slowly beginning to dawn on us that Global Warming is the result of increasing human CO2 emissions, and the more people there are in the world, the worse it will become. Ultimately, it is the sky that will prove to be the limit to our numbers. The developed countries of the world are the most affluent, and also the most effluent, so we must lead by example and contain our own population growth and per capita emissions. We also have a big debt to repay to former colonial territories in Africa, Asia and South America, who desperately need our help to contain their excessive rates of population growth. Belgian and Dutch obstetricians and gynaecologists can play a critical role in this endeavour. After all, we already have a pill that will stop global warming - the oral contraceptive pill.}, }
@article {pmid25567630, year = {2008}, author = {Crozier, LG and Hendry, AP and Lawson, PW and Quinn, TP and Mantua, NJ and Battin, J and Shaw, RG and Huey, RB}, title = {Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {252-270}, pmid = {25567630}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) salmon. We discuss the possible evolutionary responses in migration and spawning date egg and juvenile growth and development rates, thermal tolerance, and disease resistance. We know little about ocean migration pathways, so cannot confidently suggest the potential changes in this life stage. Climate change might produce conflicting selection pressures in different life stages, which will interact with plastic (i.e. nongenetic) changes in various ways. To clarify these interactions, we present a conceptual model of how changing environmental conditions shift phenotypic optima and, through plastic responses, phenotype distributions, affecting the force of selection. Our predictions are tentative because we lack data on the strength of selection, heritability, and ecological and genetic linkages among many of the traits discussed here. Despite the challenges involved in experimental manipulation of species with complex life histories, such research is essential for full appreciation of the biological effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid25567494, year = {2008}, author = {Aitken, SN and Yeaman, S and Holliday, JA and Wang, T and Curtis-McLane, S}, title = {Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {95-111}, pmid = {25567494}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Species distribution models predict a wholesale redistribution of trees in the next century, yet migratory responses necessary to spatially track climates far exceed maximum post-glacial rates. The extent to which populations will adapt will depend upon phenotypic variation, strength of selection, fecundity, interspecific competition, and biotic interactions. Populations of temperate and boreal trees show moderate to strong clines in phenology and growth along temperature gradients, indicating substantial local adaptation. Traits involved in local adaptation appear to be the product of small effects of many genes, and the resulting genotypic redundancy combined with high fecundity may facilitate rapid local adaptation despite high gene flow. Gene flow with preadapted alleles from warmer climates may promote adaptation and migration at the leading edge, while populations at the rear will likely face extirpation. Widespread species with large populations and high fecundity are likely to persist and adapt, but will likely suffer adaptational lag for a few generations. As all tree species will be suffering lags, interspecific competition may weaken, facilitating persistence under suboptimal conditions. Species with small populations, fragmented ranges, low fecundity, or suffering declines due to introduced insects or diseases should be candidates for facilitated migration.}, }
@article {pmid24340025, year = {2013}, author = {Freeman, LA and Kleypas, JA and Miller, AJ}, title = {Coral reef habitat response to climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e82404}, pmid = {24340025}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Indian Ocean ; *Models, Biological ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Coral reef ecosystems are threatened by both climate change and direct anthropogenic stress. Climate change will alter the physico-chemical environment that reefs currently occupy, leaving only limited regions that are conducive to reef habitation. Identifying these regions early may aid conservation efforts and inform decisions to transplant particular coral species or groups. Here a species distribution model (Maxent) is used to describe habitat suitable for coral reef growth. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model were used with Maxent to determine environmental suitability for corals (order Scleractinia). Environmental input variables best at representing the limits of suitable reef growth regions were isolated using a principal component analysis. Climate-driven changes in suitable habitat depend strongly on the unique region of reefs used to train Maxent. Increased global habitat loss was predicted in both climate projections through the 21(st) century. A maximum habitat loss of 43% by 2100 was predicted in RCP4.5 and 82% in RCP8.5. When the model is trained solely with environmental data from the Caribbean/Atlantic, 83% of global habitat was lost by 2100 for RCP4.5 and 88% was lost for RCP8.5. Similarly, global runs trained only with Pacific Ocean reefs estimated that 60% of suitable habitat would be lost by 2100 in RCP4.5 and 90% in RCP8.5. When Maxent was trained solely with Indian Ocean reefs, suitable habitat worldwide increased by 38% in RCP4.5 by 2100 and 28% in RCP8.5 by 2050. Global habitat loss by 2100 was just 10% for RCP8.5. This projection suggests that shallow tropical sites in the Indian Ocean basin experience conditions today that are most similar to future projections of worldwide conditions. Indian Ocean reefs may thus be ideal candidate regions from which to select the best strands of coral for potential re-seeding efforts.}, }
@article {pmid24339207, year = {2014}, author = {Raynolds, MK and Walker, DA and Ambrosius, KJ and Brown, J and Everett, KR and Kanevskiy, M and Kofinas, GP and Romanovsky, VE and Shur, Y and Webber, PJ}, title = {Cumulative geoecological effects of 62 years of infrastructure and climate change in ice-rich permafrost landscapes, Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {1211-1224}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12500}, pmid = {24339207}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Alaska ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Ice ; *Oil and Gas Fields ; Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Many areas of the Arctic are simultaneously affected by rapid climate change and rapid industrial development. These areas are likely to increase in number and size as sea ice melts and abundant Arctic natural resources become more accessible. Documenting the changes that have already occurred is essential to inform management approaches to minimize the impacts of future activities. Here, we determine the cumulative geoecological effects of 62 years (1949-2011) of infrastructure- and climate-related changes in the Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, the oldest and most extensive industrial complex in the Arctic, and an area with extensive ice-rich permafrost that is extraordinarily sensitive to climate change. We demonstrate that thermokarst has recently affected broad areas of the entire region, and that a sudden increase in the area affected began shortly after 1990 corresponding to a rapid rise in regional summer air temperatures and related permafrost temperatures. We also present a conceptual model that describes how infrastructure-related factors, including road dust and roadside flooding are contributing to more extensive thermokarst in areas adjacent to roads and gravel pads. We mapped the historical infrastructure changes for the Alaska North Slope oilfields for 10 dates from the initial oil discovery in 1968-2011. By 2010, over 34% of the intensively mapped area was affected by oil development. In addition, between 1990 and 2001, coincident with strong atmospheric warming during the 1990s, 19% of the remaining natural landscapes (excluding areas covered by infrastructure, lakes and river floodplains) exhibited expansion of thermokarst features resulting in more abundant small ponds, greater microrelief, more active lakeshore erosion and increased landscape and habitat heterogeneity. This transition to a new geoecological regime will have impacts to wildlife habitat, local residents and industry.}, }
@article {pmid24338517, year = {2014}, author = {Clearfield, M and Pearce, M and Nibbe, Y and Crotty, D and Wagner, A}, title = {The "New Deadly Quartet" for cardiovascular disease in the 21st century: obesity, metabolic syndrome, inflammation and climate change: how does statin therapy fit into this equation?.}, journal = {Current atherosclerosis reports}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {380}, pmid = {24338517}, issn = {1534-6242}, mesh = {Animals ; Cardiovascular Diseases/complications/*drug therapy ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors/*therapeutic use ; Inflammation/complications/*drug therapy ; Metabolic Syndrome/complications/*drug therapy ; Obesity/complications/*drug therapy ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Despite population-based improvements in cardiovascular risk factors, such as blood pressure, cholesterol and smoking, cardiovascular disease still remains the number-one cause of mortality in the United States. In 1989, Kaplan coined the term "Deadly Quartet" to represent a combination of risk factors that included upper body obesity, glucose intolerance, hypertriglyceridemia and hypertension [Kaplan in Arch Int Med 7:1514-1520, 1989]. In 2002, the third report of the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP-ATP III) essentially added low HDL-C criteria and renamed this the "metabolic syndrome." [The National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) in JAMA 285:2486-2497, 2001] However, often forgotten was that a pro-inflammatory state and pro-thrombotic state were also considered components of the syndrome, albeit the panel did not find enough evidence at the time to recommend routine screening for these risk factors [The National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) in JAMA 285:2486-2497, 2001]. Now over a decade later, it may be time to reconsider this deadly quartet by reevaluating the roles of obesity and subclinical inflammation as they relate to the metabolic syndrome. To complete this new quartet, the addition of increased exposure to elevated levels of particulate matter in the atmosphere may help elucidate why this cardiovascular pandemic continues, despite our concerted efforts. In this article, we will summarize the evidence, focusing on how statin therapy may further impact this new version of the "deadly quartet".}, }
@article {pmid24337280, year = {2013}, author = {Shoemaker, JK and Schrag, DP and Molina, MJ and Ramanathan, V}, title = {Climate change. What role for short-lived climate pollutants in mitigation policy?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {342}, number = {6164}, pages = {1323-1324}, doi = {10.1126/science.1240162}, pmid = {24337280}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; Environmental Pollutants/*standards ; Fluorocarbons/standards ; Methane/standards ; Ozone/standards ; Soot/standards ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid24335979, year = {2014}, author = {Bridle, JR and Buckley, J and Bodsworth, EJ and Thomas, CD}, title = {Evolution on the move: specialization on widespread resources associated with rapid range expansion in response to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {281}, number = {1776}, pages = {20131800}, pmid = {24335979}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Geography ; Oviposition/physiology ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Generalist species and phenotypes are expected to perform best under rapid environmental change. In contrast to this view that generalists will inherit the Earth, we find that increased use of a single host plant is associated with the recent climate-driven range expansion of the UK brown argus butterfly. Field assays of female host plant preference across the UK reveal a diversity of adaptations to host plants in long-established parts of the range, whereas butterflies in recently colonized areas are more specialized, consistently preferring to lay eggs on one host plant species that is geographically widespread throughout the region of expansion, despite being locally rare. By common-garden rearing of females' offspring, we also show an increase in dispersal propensity associated with the colonization of new sites. Range expansion is therefore associated with an increase in the spatial scale of adaptation as dispersive specialists selectively spread into new regions. Major restructuring of patterns of local adaptation is likely to occur across many taxa with climate change, as lineages suited to regional colonization rather than local success emerge and expand.}, }
@article {pmid24335559, year = {2014}, author = {Luo, J and Koselj, K and Zsebok, S and Siemers, BM and Goerlitz, HR}, title = {Global warming alters sound transmission: differential impact on the prey detection ability of echolocating bats.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society, Interface}, volume = {11}, number = {91}, pages = {20130961}, pmid = {24335559}, issn = {1742-5662}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Chiroptera/*physiology ; Climate ; Echolocation/*physiology ; Ecology ; Flight, Animal ; Germany ; *Global Warming ; Predatory Behavior ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts the biogeography and phenology of plants and animals, yet the underlying mechanisms are little known. Here, we present a functional link between rising temperature and the prey detection ability of echolocating bats. The maximum distance for echo-based prey detection is physically determined by sound attenuation. Attenuation is more pronounced for high-frequency sound, such as echolocation, and is a nonlinear function of both call frequency and ambient temperature. Hence, the prey detection ability, and thus possibly the foraging efficiency, of echolocating bats and susceptible to rising temperatures through climate change. Using present-day climate data and projected temperature rises, we modelled this effect for the entire range of bat call frequencies and climate zones around the globe. We show that depending on call frequency, the prey detection volume of bats will either decrease or increase: species calling above a crossover frequency will lose and species emitting lower frequencies will gain prey detection volume, with crossover frequency and magnitude depending on the local climatic conditions. Within local species assemblages, this may cause a change in community composition. Global warming can thus directly affect the prey detection ability of individual bats and indirectly their interspecific interactions with competitors and prey.}, }
@article {pmid24329973, year = {2014}, author = {van Prooijen, AM and Sparks, P}, title = {Attenuating initial beliefs: increasing the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change information by reflecting on values.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {929-936}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12152}, pmid = {24329973}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self-affirmation via reflection on personally important values could attenuate the impact of initial beliefs on the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change evidence. Our findings showed that initial beliefs about the human impact on ecological stability influenced the acceptance of information only among nonaffirmed participants. Self-affirmed participants who were initially resistant toward the information showed stronger beliefs in the existence of climate change risks and greater acknowledgment that individual efficacy has a role to play in reducing climate change risks than did their nonaffirmed counterparts.}, }
@article {pmid24328112, year = {2014}, author = {Gallagher, G and Zhan, T and Hsu, YK and Gupta, P and Pederson, J and Croes, B and Blake, DR and Barletta, B and Meinardi, S and Ashford, P and Vetter, A and Saba, S and Slim, R and Palandre, L and Clodic, D and Mathis, P and Wagner, M and Forgie, J and Dwyer, H and Wolf, K}, title = {High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {2}, pages = {1084-1093}, doi = {10.1021/es403447v}, pmid = {24328112}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; California ; Gases/*analysis ; *Global Warming ; *Halogenation ; }, abstract = {To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a.}, }
@article {pmid24324870, year = {2013}, author = {Rötter, RP and Höhn, J and Trnka, M and Fronzek, S and Carter, TR and Kahiluoto, H}, title = {Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {12}, pages = {4197-4214}, pmid = {24324870}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {(i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely - so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.}, }
@article {pmid24324869, year = {2013}, author = {Klapwijk, MJ and Csóka, G and Hirka, A and Björkman, C}, title = {Forest insects and climate change: long-term trends in herbivore damage.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {12}, pages = {4183-4196}, pmid = {24324869}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Long-term data sets, covering several decades, could help to reveal the effects of observed climate change on herbivore damage to plants. However, sufficiently long time series in ecology are scarce. The research presented here analyzes a long-term data set collected by the Hungarian Forest Research Institute over the period 1961-2009. The number of hectares with visible defoliation was estimated and documented for several forest insect pest species. This resulted in a unique time series that provides us with the opportunity to compare insect damage trends with trends in weather patterns. Data were analyzed for six lepidopteran species: Thaumetopoea processionea, Tortrix viridana, Rhyacionia buoliana, Malacosoma neustria, Euproctis chrysorrhoea, and Lymantria dispar. All these species exhibit outbreak dynamics in Hungary. Five of these species prefer deciduous tree species as their host plants, whereas R. buoliana is a specialist on Pinus spp. The data were analyzed using general linear models and generalized least squares regression in relation to mean monthly temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased considerably, especially over the last 25 years (+1.6°C), whereas precipitation exhibited no trend over the period. No change in weather variability over time was observed. There was increased damage caused by two species on deciduous trees. The area of damage attributed to R. buoliana decreased over the study period. There was no evidence of increased variability in damage. We conclude that species exhibiting a trend toward outbreak-level damage over a greater geographical area may be positively affected by changes in weather conditions coinciding with important life stages. Strong associations between the geographical extent of severe damage and monthly temperature and precipitation are difficult to confirm, studying the life-history traits of species could help to increase understanding of responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24324547, year = {2013}, author = {Popescu, VD and Rozylowicz, L and Cogălniceanu, D and Niculae, IM and Cucu, AL}, title = {Moving into protected areas? Setting conservation priorities for Romanian reptiles and amphibians at risk from climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {e79330}, pmid = {24324547}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Amphibians ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Models, Theoretical ; *Reptiles ; Romania ; }, abstract = {Rapid climate change represents one of the top threats to biodiversity, causing declines and extinctions of many species. Range shifts are a key response, but in many cases are incompatible with the current extent of protected areas. In this study we used ensemble species distribution models to identify range changes for 21 reptile and 16 amphibian species in Romania for the 2020s and 2050s time horizons under three emission scenarios (A1B = integrated world, rapid economic growth, A2A = divided world, rapid economic growth [realistic scenario], B2A = regional development, environmentally-friendly scenario) and no- and limited-dispersal assumptions. We then used irreplaceability analysis to test the efficacy of the Natura 2000 network to meet conservation targets. Under all scenarios and time horizons, 90% of the species suffered range contractions (greatest loses under scenarios B2A for 2020s, and A1B for 2050s), and four reptile species expanded their ranges. Two reptile and two amphibian species are predicted to completely lose climate space by 2050s. Currently, 35 species do not meet conservation targets (>40% representation in protected areas), but the target is predicted to be met for 4 - 14 species under future climate conditions, with higher representation under the limited-dispersal scenario. The Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions have the highest irreplaceability value, and act as climate refugia for many reptiles and amphibians. The Natura 2000 network performs better for achieving herpetofauna conservation goals in the future, owing to the interaction between drastic range contractions, and range shifts towards existing protected areas. Thus, conservation actions for herpetofauna in Romania need to focus on: (1) building institutional capacity of protected areas in the Alpine and Steppic-Black Sea biogeographic regions, and (2) facilitating natural range shifts by improving the conservation status of herpetofauna outside protected areas, specifically in traditionally-managed landscapes and abandoned cropland.}, }
@article {pmid24323577, year = {2014}, author = {Leppi, JC and Rinella, DJ and Wilson, RR and Loya, WM}, title = {Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {1808-1820}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12492}, pmid = {24323577}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Alaska ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Fisheries/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Oncorhynchus kisutch/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Reproduction ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Temperature ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to dramatically change hydrologic processes across Alaska, but estimates of how these impacts will influence specific watersheds and aquatic species are lacking. Here, we linked climate, hydrology, and habitat models within a coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population model to assess how projected climate change could affect survival at each freshwater life stage and, in turn, production of coho salmon smolts in three subwatersheds of the Chuitna (Chuit) River watershed, Alaska. Based on future climate scenarios and projections from a three-dimensional hydrology model, we simulated coho smolt production over a 20-year span at the end of the century (2080-2100). The direction (i.e., positive vs. negative) and magnitude of changes in smolt production varied substantially by climate scenario and subwatershed. Projected smolt production decreased in all three subwatersheds under the minimum air temperature and maximum precipitation scenario due to elevated peak flows and a resulting 98% reduction in egg-to-fry survival. In contrast, the maximum air temperature and minimum precipitation scenario led to an increase in smolt production in all three subwatersheds through an increase in fry survival. Other climate change scenarios led to mixed responses, with projected smolt production increasing and decreasing in different subwatersheds. Our analysis highlights the complexity inherent in predicting climate-change-related impacts to salmon populations and demonstrates that population effects may depend on interactions between the relative magnitude of hydrologic and thermal changes and their interactions with features of the local habitat.}, }
@article {pmid24323534, year = {2014}, author = {Hinder, SL and Gravenor, MB and Edwards, M and Ostle, C and Bodger, OG and Lee, PL and Walne, AW and Hays, GC}, title = {Multi-decadal range changes vs. thermal adaptation for north east Atlantic oceanic copepods in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {140-146}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12387}, pmid = {24323534}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Copepoda/*physiology ; Population Density ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Populations may potentially respond to climate change in various ways including moving to new areas or alternatively staying where they are and adapting as conditions shift. Traditional laboratory and mesocosm experiments last days to weeks and thus only give a limited picture of thermal adaptation, whereas ocean warming occurring over decades allows the potential for selection of new strains better adapted to warmer conditions. Evidence for adaptation in natural systems is equivocal. We used a 50-year time series comprising of 117 056 samples in the NE Atlantic, to quantify the abundance and distribution of two particularly important and abundant members of the ocean plankton (copepods of the genus Calanus) that play a key trophic role for fisheries. Abundance of C. finmarchicus, a cold-water species, and C. helgolandicus, a warm-water species, were negatively and positively related to sea surface temperature (SST) respectively. However, the abundance vs. SST relationships for neither species changed over time in a manner consistent with thermal adaptation. Accompanying the lack of evidence for thermal adaptation there has been an unabated range contraction for C. finmarchicus and range expansion for C. helgolandicus. Our evidence suggests that thermal adaptation has not mitigated the impacts of ocean warming for dramatic range changes of these key species and points to continued dramatic climate induced changes in the biology of the oceans.}, }
@article {pmid24323533, year = {2014}, author = {Klein, SG and Pitt, KA and Rathjen, KA and Seymour, JE}, title = {Irukandji jellyfish polyps exhibit tolerance to interacting climate change stressors.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {28-37}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12408}, pmid = {24323533}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cubozoa/*physiology ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Population Dynamics ; Queensland ; Reproduction ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Increasing ocean temperatures and strengthening boundary currents have caused the poleward migration of many marine species. Cubozoan jellyfish known to cause Irukandji syndrome have historically been confined to tropical waters but may be expanding into subtropical regions. Here, we examine the interactive effects of warming and acidification on the population dynamics of polyps of an Irukandji jellyfish, Alatina nr mordens, and the formation of statoliths in newly metamorphosed medusae, to determine if this jellyfish could tolerate future conditions predicted for southeast Queensland (SEQ), Australia. Two experiments, examining the orthogonal factors of temperature and pH, were undertaken. Experiment 1 mimicked the current, ca. 2050 and ca. 2100 summer temperature and pH conditions predicted for SEQ using A1F1 scenarios (temperature: 25, 27, 29 °C; pH: 7.9, 7.8, 7.6) and Experiment 2 mimicked current and future winter conditions (18 and 22 °C, pH 7.9, 7.8, 7.6). All polyps in Experiment 1 survived and budded. Fewer polyps budded in the lower pH treatments; however, patterns varied slightly among temperature treatments. Statoliths at pH 7.6 were 24% narrower than those at pH 7.8 and 7.9. Most polyps survived the winter conditions mimicked by Experiment 2 but only polyps in the 22 °C, pH 7.9 treatment increased significantly. The current absence of A. nr mordens medusae in SEQ, despite the polyps' ability to tolerate the current temperature and pH conditions, suggests that ecological, rather than abiotic factors currently limit their distribution. Observations that budding was lower under low pH treatments suggest that rates of asexual reproduction will likely be much slower in the future. We consider that A. nr mordens polyps are likely to tolerate future conditions but are unlikely to thrive in the long term. However, if polyps can overcome potential ecological boundaries and acidification proceeds slowly A. nr mordens could expand polewards in the short term.}, }
@article {pmid24312568, year = {2013}, author = {Hansen, J and Kharecha, P and Sato, M and Masson-Delmotte, V and Ackerman, F and Beerling, DJ and Hearty, PJ and Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Hsu, SL and Parmesan, C and Rockstrom, J and Rohling, EJ and Sachs, J and Smith, P and Steffen, K and Van Susteren, L and von Schuckmann, K and Zachos, JC}, title = {Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e81648}, pmid = {24312568}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Earth, Planet ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Policy ; *Social Responsibility ; }, abstract = {We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.}, }
@article {pmid24312511, year = {2013}, author = {Liu, L and Xu, X and Zhuang, D and Chen, X and Li, S}, title = {Changes in the potential multiple cropping system in response to climate change in China from 1960-2010.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {e80990}, pmid = {24312511}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The multiple cropping practice is essential to agriculture because it has been shown to significantly increase the grain yield and promote agricultural economic development. In this study, potential multiple cropping systems in China are calculated based on meteorological observation data by using the Agricultural Ecology Zone (AEZ) model. Following this, the changes in the potential cropping systems in response to climate change between the 1960s and the 2010s were subsequently analyzed. The results indicate that the changes of potential multiple cropping systems show tremendous heterogeneity in respect to the spatial pattern in China. A key finding is that the magnitude of change of the potential cropping systems showed a pattern of increase both from northern China to southern China and from western China to eastern China. Furthermore, the area found to be suitable only for single cropping decreased, while the area suitable for triple cropping increased significantly from the 1960s to the 2000s. During the studied period, the potential multiple cropping index (PMCI) gap between rain-fed and irrigated scenarios increased from 18% to 24%, which indicated noticeable growth of water supply limitations under the rain-fed scenario. The most significant finding of this research was that from the 1960s to the 2000s climate change had led to a significant increase of PMCI by 13% under irrigated scenario and 7% under rain-fed scenario across the whole of China. Furthermore, the growth of the annual mean temperature is identified as the main reason underlying the increase of PMCI. It has also been noticed that across China the changes of potential multiple cropping systems under climate change were different from region to region.}, }
@article {pmid24312322, year = {2013}, author = {Macias, D and Garcia-Gorriz, E and Stips, A}, title = {Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {e81591}, pmid = {24312322}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Mediterranean Sea ; Models, Statistical ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Spacecraft ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST) from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.}, }
@article {pmid24310903, year = {2014}, author = {De Laurentiis, E and Minella, M and Maurino, V and Minero, C and Vione, D}, title = {Effects of climate change on surface-water photochemistry: a review.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {21}, number = {20}, pages = {11770-11780}, pmid = {24310903}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Biological Oxygen Demand Analysis ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Photochemical Processes ; Surface Properties ; Water/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Information concerning the link between surface-water photochemistry and climate is presently very scarce as only a few studies have been dedicated to the subject. On the basis of the limited knowledge that is currently available, the present inferences can be made as follows: (1) Warming can cause enhanced leaching of ionic solutes from the catchments to surface waters, including cations and more biologically labile anions such as sulphate. Preferential sulphate biodegradation followed by removal as organic sulphides in sediment could increase alkalinity, favouring the generation of the carbonate radical, CO3 (·-). However, this phenomenon would be easily offset by fluctuations of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is strongly anticorrelated with CO3 (·-). Therefore, obtaining insight into DOC evolution is a key issue in understanding the link between photochemistry and climate. (2) Climate change could exacerbate water scarcity in the dry season in some regions. Fluctuations in the water column could deeply alter photochemistry that is usually favoured in shallower waters. However, the way water is lost would strongly affect the prevailing photoinduced processes. Water outflow without important changes in solute concentration would mostly favour reactions induced by the hydroxyl and carbonate radicals (·OH and CO3 (·-)). In contrast, evaporative concentration would enhance reactions mediated by singlet oxygen ((1)O2) and by the triplet states of chromophoric dissolved organic matter ((3)CDOM*). (3) In a warmer climate, the summer stratification period of lakes would last longer, thereby enhancing photochemical reactions in the epilimnion but at the same time keeping the hypolimnion water in the dark for longer periods.}, }
@article {pmid24308125, year = {2013}, author = {Cohen, G}, title = {Combating global warming: Healthy climate, healthy people.}, journal = {Health progress (Saint Louis, Mo.)}, volume = {94}, number = {6}, pages = {68-69}, pmid = {24308125}, issn = {0882-1577}, mesh = {*Environmental Health ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid24307662, year = {2014}, author = {Beatty, SJ and Morgan, DL and Lymbery, AJ}, title = {Implications of climate change for potamodromous fishes.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {1794-1807}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12444}, pmid = {24307662}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; *Rivers ; Water Movements ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {There is little understanding of how climate change will impact potamodromous freshwater fishes. Since the mid 1970s, a decline in annual rainfall in south-western Australia (a globally recognized biodiversity hotspot) has resulted in the rivers of the region undergoing severe reductions in surface flows (ca. 50%). There is universal agreement amongst Global Climate Models that rainfall will continue to decline in this region. Limited data are available on the movement patterns of the endemic freshwater fishes of south-western Australia or on the relationship between their life histories and hydrology. We used this region as a model to determine how dramatic hydrological change may impact potamodromous freshwater fishes. Migration patterns of fishes in the largest river in south-western Australia were quantified over a 4 year period and were related to a number of key environmental variables including discharge, temperature, pH, conductivity and dissolved oxygen. Most of the endemic freshwater fishes were potamodromous, displaying lateral seasonal spawning migrations from the main channel into tributaries, and there were significant temporal differences in movement patterns between species. Using a model averaging approach, amount of discharge was clearly the best predictor of upstream and downstream movement for most species. Given past and projected reductions in surface flow and groundwater, the findings have major implications for future recruitment rates and population viabilities of potamodromous fishes. Freshwater ecosystems in drying climatic regions can only be managed effectively if such hydro-ecological relationships are considered. Proactive management and addressing existing anthropogenic stressors on aquatic ecosystems associated with the development of surface and groundwater resources and land use is required to increase the resistance and resilience of potamodromous fishes to ongoing flow reductions.}, }
@article {pmid24306533, year = {2014}, author = {Merino, I and Contreras, A and Jing, ZP and Gallardo, F and Cánovas, FM and Gómez, L}, title = {Plantation forestry under global warming: hybrid poplars with improved thermotolerance provide new insights on the in vivo function of small heat shock protein chaperones.}, journal = {Plant physiology}, volume = {164}, number = {2}, pages = {978-991}, pmid = {24306533}, issn = {1532-2548}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/drug effects/*genetics ; Aminobutyrates/pharmacology ; Enzyme Stability/drug effects ; *Forestry ; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant/drug effects ; *Global Warming ; Heat-Shock Proteins, Small/genetics/*metabolism ; Heat-Shock Response/drug effects/genetics ; Hippocastanaceae/drug effects/metabolism ; *Hot Temperature ; *Hybridization, Genetic/drug effects ; Plant Leaves/drug effects/genetics/physiology ; Plant Proteins/genetics/metabolism ; Plants, Genetically Modified ; Populus/drug effects/genetics/*physiology ; Transgenes ; }, abstract = {Climate-driven heat stress is a key factor affecting forest plantation yields. While its effects are expected to worsen during this century, breeding more tolerant genotypes has proven elusive. We report here a substantial and durable increase in the thermotolerance of hybrid poplar (Populus tremula×Populus alba) through overexpression of a major small heat shock protein (sHSP) with convenient features. Experimental evidence was obtained linking protective effects in the transgenic events with the unique chaperone activity of sHSPs. In addition, significant positive correlations were observed between phenotype strength and heterologous sHSP accumulation. The remarkable baseline levels of transgene product (up to 1.8% of total leaf protein) have not been reported in analogous studies with herbaceous species. As judged by protein analyses, such an accumulation is not matched either by endogenous sHSPs in both heat-stressed poplar plants and field-grown adult trees. Quantitative real time-polymerase chain reaction analyses supported these observations and allowed us to identify the poplar members most responsive to heat stress. Interestingly, sHSP overaccumulation was not associated with pleiotropic effects that might decrease yields. The poplar lines developed here also outperformed controls under in vitro and ex vitro culture conditions (callus biomass, shoot production, and ex vitro survival), even in the absence of thermal stress. These results reinforce the feasibility of improving valuable genotypes for plantation forestry, a field where in vitro recalcitrance, long breeding cycles, and other practical factors constrain conventional genetic approaches. They also provide new insights into the biological functions of the least understood family of heat shock protein chaperones.}, }
@article {pmid24305862, year = {2014}, author = {Gavazov, K and Spiegelberger, T and Buttler, A}, title = {Transplantation of subalpine wood-pasture turfs along a natural climatic gradient reveals lower resistance of unwooded pastures to climate change compared to wooded ones.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {174}, number = {4}, pages = {1425-1435}, pmid = {24305862}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Altitude ; Biodiversity ; Biomass ; Carbon Isotopes/analysis ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Nitrogen Isotopes/chemistry ; *Poaceae ; Seasons ; Switzerland ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change could impact strongly on cold-adapted mountain ecosystems, but little is known about its interaction with traditional land-use practices. We used an altitudinal gradient to simulate a year-round warmer and drier climate for semi-natural subalpine grasslands across a landscape of contrasting land-use management. Turf mesocosms from three pasture-woodland land-use types-unwooded pasture, sparsely wooded pasture, and densely wooded pasture-spanning a gradient from high to low management intensity were transplanted downslope to test their resistance to two intensities of climate change. We found strong overall effects of intensive (+4 K) experimental climate change (i.e., warming and reduced precipitation) on plant community structure and function, while moderate (+2 K) climate change did not substantially affect the studied land-use types, thus indicating an ecosystem response threshold to moderate climate perturbation. The individual land-use types were affected differently under the +4 K scenario, with a 60% decrease in aboveground biomass (AGB) in unwooded pasture turfs, a 40% decrease in sparsely wooded pasture turfs, and none in densely wooded ones. Similarly, unwooded pasture turfs experienced a 30% loss of species, advanced (by 30 days) phenological development, and a mid-season senescence due to drought stress, while no such effects were recorded for the other land-use types. The observed contrasting effects of climate change across the pasture-woodland landscape have important implications for future decades. The reduced impact of climate change on wooded pastures as compared to unwooded ones should promote the sustainable land use of wooded pastures by maintaining low management intensity and a sparse forest canopy, which buffer the immediate impacts of climate change on herbaceous vegetation.}, }
@article {pmid24304005, year = {2014}, author = {Hasegawa, T and Fujimori, S and Shin, Y and Takahashi, K and Masui, T and Tanaka, A}, title = {Climate change impact and adaptation assessment on food consumption utilizing a new scenario framework.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {1}, pages = {438-445}, doi = {10.1021/es4034149}, pmid = {24304005}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {We assessed the impacts of climate change and agricultural autonomous adaptation measures (changes in crop variety and planting dates) on food consumption and risk of hunger considering uncertainties in socioeconomic and climate conditions by using a new scenario framework. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and estimated the impacts through 2050 based on future assumptions of socioeconomic and climate conditions. We used three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as future population and gross domestic products, four Representative Concentration Pathways as a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and eight General Circulation Models to estimate climate conditions. We found that (i) the adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions. (ii) population and economic development had a greater impact than climate conditions for risk of hunger at least throughout 2050, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios. (iii) The impact on hunger risk varied across regions because levels of calorie intake, climate change impacts and land scarcity varied by region.}, }
@article {pmid24299086, year = {2013}, author = {Jorgensen, JC and McClure, MM and Sheer, MB and Munn, NL}, title = {Combined effects of climate change and bank stabilization on shallow water habitats of chinook salmon.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {27}, number = {6}, pages = {1201-1211}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12168}, pmid = {24299086}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Oregon ; Population Dynamics ; Rivers ; Salmon/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Significant challenges remain in the ability to estimate habitat change under the combined effects of natural variability, climate change, and human activity. We examined anticipated effects on shallow water over low-sloped beaches to these combined effects in the lower Willamette River, Oregon, an area highly altered by development. A proposal to stabilize some shoreline with large rocks (riprap) would alter shallow water areas, an important habitat for threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and would be subject to U.S. Endangered Species Act-mandated oversight. In the mainstem, subyearling Chinook salmon appear to preferentially occupy these areas, which fluctuate with river stages. We estimated effects with a geospatial model and projections of future river flows. Recent (1999-2009) median river stages during peak subyearling occupancy (April-June) maximized beach shallow water area in the lower mainstem. Upstream shallow water area was maximized at lower river stages than have occurred recently. Higher river stages in April-June, resulting from increased flows predicted for the 2080s, decreased beach shallow water area 17-32%. On the basis of projected 2080s flows, more than 15% of beach shallow water area was displaced by the riprap. Beach shallow water area lost to riprap represented up to 1.6% of the total from the mouth to 12.9 km upstream. Reductions in shallow water area could restrict salmon feeding, resting, and refuge from predators and potentially reduce opportunities for the expression of the full range of life-history strategies. Although climate change analyses provided useful information, detailed analyses are prohibitive at the project scale for the multitude of small projects reviewed annually. The benefits of our approach to resource managers include a wider geographic context for reviewing similar small projects in concert with climate change, an approach to analyze cumulative effects of similar actions, and estimation of the actions' long-term effects. Efectos Combinados del Cambio Climático y la Estabilización de Bordes de Ríos Hábitats de Aguas Poco Profundas del Salmón Chinook.}, }
@article {pmid24299085, year = {2013}, author = {Busch, DS and Greene, CM and Good, TP}, title = {Estimating effects of tidal power projects and climate change on threatened and endangered marine species and their food web.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {27}, number = {6}, pages = {1190-1200}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12164}, pmid = {24299085}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Endangered Species ; *Food Chain ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; *Power Plants ; Risk Assessment ; United States ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Marine hydrokinetic power projects will operate as marine environments change in response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We considered how tidal power development and stressors resulting from climate change may affect Puget Sound species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and their food web. We used risk tables to assess the singular and combined effects of tidal power development and climate change. Tidal power development and climate change posed risks to ESA-listed species, and risk increased with incorporation of the effects of these stressors on predators and prey of ESA-listed species. In contrast, results of a model of strikes on ESA-listed species from turbine blades suggested that few ESA-listed species are likely to be killed by a commercial-scale tidal turbine array. We applied scenarios to a food web model of Puget Sound to explore the effects of tidal power and climate change on ESA-listed species using more quantitative analytical techniques. To simulate development of tidal power, we applied results of the blade strike model. To simulate environmental changes over the next 50 years, we applied scenarios of change in primary production, plankton community structure, dissolved oxygen, ocean acidification, and freshwater flooding events. No effects of tidal power development on ESA-listed species were detected from the food web model output, but the effects of climate change on them and other members of the food web were large. Our analyses exemplify how natural resource managers might assess environmental effects of marine technologies in ways that explicitly incorporate climate change and consider multiple ESA-listed species in the context of their ecological community. Estimación de los Efectos de Proyectos de Energía de las Mareas y el Cambio Climático sobre Especies Marinas Amenazadas y en Peligro y su Red Alimentaria.}, }
@article {pmid24299084, year = {2013}, author = {Walters, AW and Bartz, KK and McClure, MM}, title = {Interactive effects of water diversion and climate change for juvenile chinook salmon in the lemhi river basin (USA.).}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {27}, number = {6}, pages = {1179-1189}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12170}, pmid = {24299084}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Idaho ; Monte Carlo Method ; Population Dynamics ; Rivers ; Salmon/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The combined effects of water diversion and climate change are a major conservation challenge for freshwater ecosystems. In the Lemhi Basin, Idaho (U.S.A.), water diversion causes changes in streamflow, and climate change will further affect streamflow and temperature. Shifts in streamflow and temperature regimes can affect juvenile salmon growth, movement, and survival. We examined the potential effects of water diversion and climate change on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a species listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). To examine the effects for juvenile survival, we created a model relating 19 years of juvenile survival data to streamflow and temperature and found spring streamflow and summer temperature were good predictors of juvenile survival. We used these models to project juvenile survival for 15 diversion and climate-change scenarios. Projected survival was 42-58% lower when streamflows were diverted than when streamflows were undiverted. For diverted streamflows, 2040 climate-change scenarios (ECHO-G and CGCM3.1 T47) resulted in an additional 11-39% decrease in survival. We also created models relating habitat carrying capacity to streamflow and made projections for diversion and climate-change scenarios. Habitat carrying capacity estimated for diverted streamflows was 17-58% lower than for undiverted streamflows. Climate-change scenarios resulted in additional decreases in carrying capacity for the dry (ECHO-G) climate model. Our results indicate climate change will likely pose an additional stressor that should be considered when evaluating the effects of anthropogenic actions on salmon population status. Thus, this type of analysis will be especially important for evaluating effects of specific actions on a particular species. Efectos Interactivos de la Desviación del Agua y el Cambio Climático en Individuos Juveniles de Salmón Chinook en la Cuenca del Río Lemhi (E.U.A.).}, }
@article {pmid24299081, year = {2013}, author = {Snover, AK and Mantua, NJ and Littell, JS and Alexander, MA and McClure, MM and Nye, J}, title = {Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {27}, number = {6}, pages = {1147-1157}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12163}, pmid = {24299081}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Computer Simulation ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Decision Making, Computer-Assisted ; Endangered Species ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación.}, }
@article {pmid24299080, year = {2013}, author = {Seney, EE and Rowland, MJ and Lowery, RA and Griffis, RB and McClure, MM}, title = {Climate change, marine environments, and the US Endangered species act.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {27}, number = {6}, pages = {1138-1146}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12167}, pmid = {24299080}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Aquatic Organisms ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Endangered Species/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to be a top driver of global biodiversity loss in the 21st century. It poses new challenges to conserving and managing imperiled species, particularly in marine and estuarine ecosystems. The use of climate-related science in statutorily driven species management, such as under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), is in its early stages. This article provides an overview of ESA processes, with emphasis on the mandate to the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) to manage listed marine, estuarine, and anadromous species. Although the ESA is specific to the United States, its requirements are broadly relevant to conservation planning. Under the ESA, species, subspecies, and "distinct population segments" may be listed as either endangered or threatened, and taking of most listed species (harassing, harming, pursuing, wounding, killing, or capturing) is prohibited unless specifically authorized via a case-by-case permit process. Government agencies, in addition to avoiding take, must ensure that actions they fund, authorize, or conduct are not likely to jeopardize a listed species' continued existence or adversely affect designated critical habitat. Decisions for which climate change is likely to be a key factor include: determining whether a species should be listed under the ESA, designating critical habitat areas, developing species recovery plans, and predicting whether effects of proposed human activities will be compatible with ESA-listed species' survival and recovery. Scientific analyses that underlie these critical conservation decisions include risk assessment, long-term recovery planning, defining environmental baselines, predicting distribution, and defining appropriate temporal and spatial scales. Although specific guidance is still evolving, it is clear that the unprecedented changes in global ecosystems brought about by climate change necessitate new information and approaches to conservation of imperiled species. El Cambio Climático, los Ecosistemas Marinos y el Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro.}, }
@article {pmid24297223, year = {2013}, author = {Guillot, EG and Tumonggor, MK and Lansing, JS and Sudoyo, H and Cox, MP}, title = {Climate change influenced female population sizes through time across the Indonesian archipelago.}, journal = {Human biology}, volume = {85}, number = {1-3}, pages = {135-152}, doi = {10.3378/027.085.0306}, pmid = {24297223}, issn = {1534-6617}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/*genetics ; Female ; Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; Humans ; Indonesia/ethnology ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {Lying at the crossroads of Asia and the Pacific world, the Indonesian archipelago hosts one of the world's richest accumulations of cultural, linguistic, and genetic variation. While the role of human migration into and around the archipelago is now known in some detail, other aspects of Indonesia's complex history are less understood. Here, we focus on population size changes from the first settlement of Indonesia nearly 50 kya up to the historic era. We reconstructed the past effective population sizes of Indonesian women using mitochondrial DNA sequences from 2,104 individuals in 55 village communities on four islands spanning the Indonesian archipelago (Bali, Flores, Sumba, and Timor). We found little evidence for large fluctuations in effective population size. Most communities grew slowly during the late Pleistocene, peaked 15-20 kya, and subsequently declined slowly into the Holocene. This unexpected pattern may reflect population declines caused by the flooding of lowland hunter/gatherer habitat during sea-level rises following the last glacial maximum.}, }
@article {pmid24295756, year = {2014}, author = {Wu, S and Zhou, S and Chen, D and Wei, Z and Dai, L and Li, X}, title = {Determining the contributions of urbanisation and climate change to NPP variations over the last decade in the Yangtze River Delta, China.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {472}, number = {}, pages = {397-406}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.10.128}, pmid = {24295756}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; *Environment ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Rivers ; Trees ; Urbanization/*trends ; }, abstract = {Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) is an important measure of global change, and identifying the relative contributions of urbanisation and climate change to NPP is important for understanding the impact of human and natural influences on terrestrial systems and the carbon cycle. The objective of this study was to reveal how urbanisation and climate drive changes in NPP. Satellite-based estimates of NPP collected over a 12-year period (1999-2010) were analysed to identify NPP variations in the Yangtze River Delta. Temporal and spatial analysis methods were used to identify the relationships among NPP, nighttime light urbanisation index values, and climatic factors from pixel to regional scales. The NPP of the entire Yangtze River Delta decreased slightly at a rate of -0.5 g C m(-2)a(-1) from 1999 to 2010, but this change was not significant. However, in the urban region, NPP decreased significantly (p<0.05) at a rate of -4.7 g C m(-2)a(-1) due to urbanisation processes. A spatially explicit method was proposed to partition the relative contributions of urbanisation and climate change to NPP variation. The results revealed that the urbanisation factor is the main driving force for NPP change in high-speed urbanisation areas, and the factor accounted for 47% of the variations. However, in the forest and farm regions, the NPP variation was mainly controlled by climate change and residual factors.}, }
@article {pmid24291765, year = {2014}, author = {Banu, S and Hu, W and Guo, Y and Hurst, C and Tong, S}, title = {Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {63}, number = {}, pages = {137-142}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2013.11.002}, pmid = {24291765}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Aedes/virology ; Animals ; Bangladesh/epidemiology ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Disease Vectors ; Environment ; Humans ; Humidity ; Temperature ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3°C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.}, }
@article {pmid24287946, year = {2013}, author = {Väisänen, M and Martz, F and Kaarlejärvi, E and Julkunen-Tiitto, R and Stark, S}, title = {Phenolic responses of mountain crowberry (Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum) to global climate change are compound specific and depend on grazing by reindeer (Rangifer tarandus).}, journal = {Journal of chemical ecology}, volume = {39}, number = {11-12}, pages = {1390-1399}, pmid = {24287946}, issn = {1573-1561}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ericaceae/*metabolism ; *Herbivory ; Norway ; Phenols/*metabolism ; Plant Leaves/metabolism ; Reindeer/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Mountain crowberry (Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum) is a keystone species in northern ecosystems and exerts important ecosystem-level effects through high concentrations of phenolic metabolites. It has not been investigated how crowberry phenolics will respond to global climate change. In the tundra, grazing by reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) affects vegetation and soil nutrient availability, but almost nothing is known about the interactions between grazing and global climate change on plant phenolics. We performed a factorial warming and fertilization experiment in a tundra ecosystem under light grazing and heavy grazing and analyzed individual foliar phenolics and crowberry abundance. Crowberry was more abundant under light grazing than heavy grazing. Although phenolic concentrations did not differ between grazing intensities, responses of crowberry abundance and phenolic concentrations to warming varied significantly depending on grazing intensity. Under light grazing, warming increased crowberry abundance and the concentration of stilbenes, but decreased e.g., the concentrations of flavonols, condensed tannins, and batatasin-III, resulting in no change in total phenolics. Under heavy grazing, warming did not affect crowberry abundance, and induced a weak but consistent decrease among the different phenolic compound groups, resulting in a net decrease in total phenolics. Our results show that the different phenolic compound groups may show varying or even opposing responses to warming in the tundra at different levels of grazing intensity. Even when plant phenolic concentrations do not directly respond to grazing, grazers may have a key control over plant responses to changes in the abiotic environment, reflecting multiple adaptive purposes of plant phenolics and complex interactions between the biotic and the abiotic factors.}, }
@article {pmid24284816, year = {2014}, author = {Bystriakova, N and Ansell, SW and Russell, SJ and Grundmann, M and Vogel, JC and Schneider, H}, title = {Present, past and future of the European rock fern Asplenium fontanum: combining distribution modelling and population genetics to study the effect of climate change on geographic range and genetic diversity.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {113}, number = {3}, pages = {453-465}, pmid = {24284816}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; Demography ; Ferns/*genetics ; Genetic Loci ; Genetic Markers/genetics ; *Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Isoenzymes/genetics ; *Models, Statistical ; Phylogeography ; Plant Leaves/genetics ; Plant Proteins/genetics ; Reproduction ; Software ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate change is expected to alter the geographic range of many plant species dramatically. Predicting this response will be critical to managing the conservation of plant resources and the effects of invasive species. The aim of this study was to predict the response of temperate homosporous ferns to climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Genetic diversity and changes in distribution range were inferred for the diploid rock fern Asplenium fontanum along a South-North transect, extending from its putative last glacial maximum (LGM) refugia in southern France towards southern Germany and eastern-central France. This study reconciles observations from distribution models and phylogeographic analyses derived from plastid and nuclear diversity.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Genetic diversity distribution and niche modelling propose that genetic diversity accumulates in the LGM climate refugium in southern France with the formation of a diversity gradient reflecting a slow, post-LGM range expansion towards the current distribution range. Evidence supports the fern's preference for outcrossing, contradicting the expectation that homosporous ferns would populate new sites by single-spore colonization. Prediction of climate and distribution range change suggests that a dramatic loss of range and genetic diversity in this fern is possible. The observed migration is best described by the phalanx expansion model.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that homosporous ferns reproducing preferentially by outcrossing accumulate genetic diversity primarily in LGM climate refugia and may be threatened if these areas disappear due to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24282539, year = {2013}, author = {Gang, C and Zhou, W and Li, J and Chen, Y and Mu, S and Ren, J and Chen, J and Groisman, PY}, title = {Assessing the spatiotemporal variation in distribution, extent and NPP of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate change from 1911 to 2000.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {e80394}, pmid = {24282539}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {To assess the variation in distribution, extent, and NPP of global natural vegetation in response to climate change in the period 1911-2000 and to provide a feasible method for climate change research in regions where historical data is difficult to obtain. In this research, variations in spatiotemporal distributions of global potential natural vegetation (PNV) from 1911 to 2000 were analyzed with the comprehensive sequential classification system (CSCS) and net primary production (NPP) of different ecosystems was evaluated with the synthetic model to determine the effect of climate change on the terrestrial ecosystems. The results showed that consistently rising global temperature and altered precipitation patterns had exerted strong influence on spatiotemporal distribution and productivities of terrestrial ecosystems, especially in the mid/high latitudes. Ecosystems in temperate zones expanded and desert area decreased as a consequence of climate variations. The vegetation that decreased the most was cold desert (18.79%), while the maximum increase (10.31%) was recorded in savanna. Additionally, the area of tundra and alpine steppe reduced significantly (5.43%) and were forced northward due to significant ascending temperature in the northern hemisphere. The global terrestrial ecosystems productivities increased by 2.09%, most of which was attributed to savanna (6.04%), tropical forest (0.99%), and temperate forest (5.49%). Most NPP losses were found in cold desert (27.33%). NPP increases displayed a latitudinal distribution. The NPP of tropical zones amounted to more than a half of total NPP, with an estimated increase of 1.32%. The increase in northern temperate zone was the second highest with 3.55%. Global NPP showed a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation in comparison with mean annual temperature and biological temperature. In general, effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems were deep and profound in 1911-2000, especially in the latter half of the period.}, }
@article {pmid24279957, year = {2014}, author = {Friedman, CL and Zhang, Y and Selin, NE}, title = {Climate change and emissions impacts on atmospheric PAH transport to the Arctic.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {48}, number = {1}, pages = {429-437}, doi = {10.1021/es403098w}, pmid = {24279957}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Arctic Regions ; Benzo(a)pyrene/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Extraction and Processing Industry ; Models, Theoretical ; Petroleum ; Phenanthrenes/*analysis ; Pyrenes/*analysis ; Ships ; }, abstract = {We investigate effects of 2000-2050 emissions and climate changes on the atmospheric transport of three polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs): phenanthrene (PHE), pyrene (PYR), and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP). We use the GEOS-Chem model coupled to meteorology from a general circulation model and focus on impacts to northern hemisphere midlatitudes and the Arctic. We project declines in anthropogenic emissions (up to 20%) and concentrations (up to 37%), with particle-bound PAHs declining more, and greater declines in midlatitudes versus the Arctic. Climate change causes relatively minor increases in midlatitude concentrations for the more volatile PHE and PYR (up to 4%) and decreases (3%) for particle-bound BaP. In the Arctic, all PAHs decline slightly under future climate (up to 2%). Overall, we observe a small 2050 "climate penalty" for volatile PAHs and "climate benefit" for particle-bound PAHs. The degree of penalty or benefit depends on competition between deposition and surface-to-air fluxes of previously deposited PAHs. Particles and temperature have greater impacts on future transport than oxidants, with particle changes alone accounting for 15% of BaP decline under 2050 emissions. Higher temperatures drive increasing surface-to-air fluxes that cause PHE and PYR climate penalties. Simulations suggest ratios of more-to-less volatile species can be used to diagnose signals of climate versus emissions and that these signals are best observed in the Arctic.}, }
@article {pmid24278392, year = {2013}, author = {Hughes, AD and Grottoli, AG}, title = {Heterotrophic compensation: a possible mechanism for resilience of coral reefs to global warming or a sign of prolonged stress?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {e81172}, pmid = {24278392}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Autotrophic Processes ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; *Heterotrophic Processes ; Phototrophic Processes ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Thermally induced bleaching has caused a global decline in corals and the frequency of such bleaching events will increase. Thermal bleaching severely disrupts the trophic behaviour of the coral holobiont, reducing the photosynthetically derived energy available to the coral host. In the short term this reduction in energy transfer from endosymbiotic algae results in an energy deficit for the coral host. If the bleaching event is short-lived then the coral may survive this energy deficit by depleting its lipid reserves, or by increasing heterotrophic energy acquisition. We show for the first time that the coral animal is capable of increasing the amount of heterotrophic carbon incorporated into its tissues for almost a year following bleaching. This prolonged heterotrophic compensation could be a sign of resilience or prolonged stress. If the heterotrophic compensation is in fact an acclimatization response, then this physiological response could act as a buffer from future bleaching by providing sufficient heterotrophic energy to compensate for photoautotrophic energy losses during bleaching, and potentially minimizing the effect of subsequent elevated temperature stresses. However, if the elevated incorporation of zooplankton is a sign that the effects of bleaching continue to be stressful on the holobiont, even after 11 months of recovery, then this physiological response would indicate that complete coral recovery requires more than 11 months to achieve. If coral bleaching becomes an annual global phenomenon by mid-century, then present temporal refugia will not be sufficient to allow coral colonies to recover between bleaching events and coral reefs will become increasingly less resilient to future climate change. If, however, increasing their sequestration of zooplankton-derived nutrition into their tissues over prolonged periods of time is a compensating mechanism, the impacts of annual bleaching may be reduced. Thus, some coral species may be better equipped to face repeated bleaching stress than previously thought.}, }
@article {pmid24278336, year = {2013}, author = {Ruddock, K and August, PV and Damon, C and Labash, C and Rubinoff, P and Robadue, D}, title = {Conservation in the context of climate change: practical guidelines for land protection at local scales.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {e80874}, pmid = {24278336}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Geography ; *Guidelines as Topic ; Plants ; Rhode Island ; Soil ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change will affect the composition of plant and animal communities in many habitats and geographic settings. This presents a dilemma for conservation programs--will the portfolio of protected lands we now have achieve a goal of conserving biodiversity in the future when the ecological communities occurring within them change? Climate change will significantly alter many plant communities, but the geophysical underpinnings of these landscapes, such as landform, elevation, soil, and geological properties, will largely remain the same. Studies show that extant landscapes with a diversity of geophysical characteristics support diverse plant and animal communities. Therefore, geophysically diverse landscapes will likely support diverse species assemblages in the future, although which species and communities will be present is not altogether clear. Following protocols advanced in studies spanning large regions, we developed a down-scaled, high spatial resolution measure of geophysical complexity based on Ecological Land Units (ELUs) and examined the relationship between plant species richness, ecological community richness, and ELU richness (number of different ELU types). We found that extant landscapes with high ELU richness had a greater variety of ecological community types and high species richness of trees, shrubs, and herbaceous plants. We developed a spatial representation of diverse ELU landscapes to inform local conservation practitioners, such as land trusts, of potential conservation targets that will likely support diverse faunas and floras despite the impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24277338, year = {2013}, author = {Roehr, B}, title = {What will climate change mean for infectious disease?.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {347}, number = {}, pages = {f6713}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.f6713}, pmid = {24277338}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; Disease Vectors ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Plant Diseases ; }, }
@article {pmid24277242, year = {2014}, author = {Bright, RM and Antón-Fernández, C and Astrup, R and Cherubini, F and Kvalevåg, M and Strømman, AH}, title = {Climate change implications of shifting forest management strategy in a boreal forest ecosystem of Norway.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {607-621}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12451}, pmid = {24277242}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forestry/economics/*methods ; Models, Biological ; Models, Theoretical ; Norway ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Empirical models alongside remotely sensed and station measured meteorological observations are employed to investigate both the local and global direct climate change impacts of alternative forest management strategies within a boreal ecosystem of eastern Norway. Stand-level analysis is firstly executed to attribute differences in daily, seasonal, and annual mean surface temperatures to differences in surface intrinsic biophysical properties across conifer, deciduous, and clear-cut sites. Relative to a conifer site, a slight local cooling of −0.13 °C at a deciduous site and −0.25 °C at a clear-cut site were observed over a 6-year period, which were mostly attributed to a higher albedo throughout the year. When monthly mean albedo trajectories over the entire managed forest landscape were taken into consideration, we found that strategies promoting natural regeneration of coniferous sites with native deciduous species led to substantial global direct climate cooling benefits relative to those maintaining current silviculture regimes – despite predicted long-term regional warming feedbacks and a reduced albedo in spring and autumn months. The magnitude and duration of the cooling benefit depended largely on whether management strategies jointly promoted an enhanced material supply over business-as-usual levels. Expressed in terms of an equivalent CO2 emission pulse at the start of the simulation, the net climate response at the end of the 21st century spanned −8 to −159 Tg-CO2-eq., depending on whether near-term harvest levels increased or followed current trends, respectively. This magnitude equates to approximately −20 to −300% of Norway's annual domestic (production) emission impact. Our analysis supports the assertion that a carbon-only focus in the design and implementation of forest management policy in boreal and other climatically similar regions can be counterproductive – and at best – suboptimal if boreal forests are to be used as a tool to mitigate global warming.}, }
@article {pmid24275403, year = {2013}, author = {Laudi, S and Steudel, W}, title = {Is the time right to fight global warming in sepsis?.}, journal = {Critical care medicine}, volume = {41}, number = {12}, pages = {2835-2836}, doi = {10.1097/CCM.0b013e31829cb357}, pmid = {24275403}, issn = {1530-0293}, mesh = {Animals ; Endotoxemia/*physiopathology/*therapy ; *Hypothermia, Induced ; }, }
@article {pmid24273093, year = {2014}, author = {Campeau, A and Del Giorgio, PA}, title = {Patterns in CH4 and CO2 concentrations across boreal rivers: Major drivers and implications for fluvial greenhouse emissions under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {1075-1088}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12479}, pmid = {24273093}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Gases/analysis ; Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/*analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; Quebec ; Regression Analysis ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {It is now widely accepted that boreal rivers and streams are regionally significant sources of carbon dioxide (CO2), yet their role as methane (CH4) emitters, as well as the sensitivity of these greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to climate change, are still largely undefined. In this study, we explore the large-scale patterns of fluvial CO2 and CH4 partial pressure (pCO2 , pCH4) and gas exchange (k) relative to a set of key, climate-sensitive river variables across 46 streams and rivers in two distinct boreal landscapes of Northern Québec. We use the resulting models to determine the direction and magnitude of C-gas emissions from these boreal fluvial networks under scenarios of climate change. River pCO2 and pCH4 were positively correlated, although the latter was two orders of magnitude more variable. We provide evidence that in-stream metabolism strongly influences the dynamics of surface water pCO2 and pCH4 , but whereas pCO2 is not influenced by temperature in the surveyed streams and rivers, pCH4 appears to be strongly temperature-dependent. The major predictors of ambient gas concentrations and exchange were water temperature, velocity, and DOC, and the resulting models indicate that total GHG emissions (C-CO2 equivalent) from the entire network may increase between by 13 to 68% under plausible scenarios of climate change over the next 50 years. These predicted increases in fluvial GHG emissions are mostly driven by a steep increase in the contribution of CH4 (from 36 to over 50% of total CO2 -equivalents). The current role of boreal fluvial networks as major landscape sources of C is thus likely to expand, mainly driven by large increases in fluvial CH4 emissions.}, }
@article {pmid24273066, year = {2014}, author = {Schueler, S and Falk, W and Koskela, J and Lefèvre, F and Bozzano, M and Hubert, J and Kraigher, H and Longauer, R and Olrik, DC}, title = {Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {1498-1511}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12476}, pmid = {24273066}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Europe ; *Forests ; Models, Biological ; Species Specificity ; Trees/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33-65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes.}, }
@article {pmid24271718, year = {2014}, author = {Orosa, JA and Roshan, G and Negahban, S}, title = {Climate change effect on outdoor ambiences in Iranian cities.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {186}, number = {3}, pages = {1889-1898}, pmid = {24271718}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Cities/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Hot Temperature ; Humidity ; Iran ; }, abstract = {In present research work the effect of climate change over the humidex in Iran is analyzed. From this research, we can conclude that the PDIAQ index showed a special sensibility to changes in temperature and relative humidity, hence, it can be an interesting tool, may be even better than the humidex to show the expected effect of climate change in perception of air quality. Thus, it was found that the humidex expected in the future will be more elevated than that in the preceding period and, on the other hand, the PDWRC has clearly reached a lower value than in the preceding period. The same effects, other than those using the earlier indexes in a more detailed manner, were observed with the PDIAQ. This index showed a higher sensitivity to variations in temperature and relative humidity, than the humidex. Finally, the main results obtained must be considered at the time of design and during construction of future buildings, since buildings that are being constructed today will be occupied in the future years of the 2100s.}, }
@article {pmid24268383, year = {2013}, author = {Rohrer, M and Salzmann, N and Stoffel, M and Kulkarni, AV}, title = {Missing (in-situ) snow cover data hampers climate change and runoff studies in the Greater Himalayas.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {468-469 Suppl}, number = {}, pages = {S60-70}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.09.056}, pmid = {24268383}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Ice Cover ; India ; Snow ; *Water Movements ; Water Resources/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {The Himalayas are presently holding the largest ice masses outside the polar regions and thus (temporarily) store important freshwater resources. In contrast to the contemplation of glaciers, the role of runoff from snow cover has received comparably little attention in the past, although (i) its contribution is thought to be at least equally or even more important than that of ice melt in many Himalayan catchments and (ii) climate change is expected to have widespread and significant consequences on snowmelt runoff. Here, we show that change assessment of snowmelt runoff and its timing is not as straightforward as often postulated, mainly as larger partial pressure of H2O, CO2, CH4, and other greenhouse gases might increase net long-wave input for snowmelt quite significantly in a future atmosphere. In addition, changes in the short-wave energy balance - such as the pollution of the snow cover through black carbon - or the sensible or latent heat contribution to snowmelt are likely to alter future snowmelt and runoff characteristics as well. For the assessment of snow cover extent and depletion, but also for its monitoring over the extremely large areas of the Himalayas, remote sensing has been used in the past and is likely to become even more important in the future. However, for the calibration and validation of remotely-sensed data, and even more so in light of possible changes in snow-cover energy balance, we strongly call for more in-situ measurements across the Himalayas, in particular for daily data on new snow and snow cover water equivalent, or the respective energy balance components. Moreover, data should be made accessible to the scientific community, so that the latter can more accurately estimate climate change impacts on Himalayan snow cover and possible consequences thereof on runoff.}, }
@article {pmid24265512, year = {2013}, author = {Doyle, JT and Redsteer, MH and Eggers, MJ}, title = {"Exploring Effects of Climate Change on Northern Plains American Indian Health".}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {120}, number = {3}, pages = {}, pmid = {24265512}, issn = {0165-0009}, support = {P20 GM103474/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; P20 MD002317/MD/NIMHD NIH HHS/United States ; P20 RR016455/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {American Indians have unique vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change because of the links among ecosystems, cultural practices, and public health, but also as a result of limited resources available to address infrastructure needs. On the Crow Reservation in south-central Montana, a Northern Plains American Indian Reservation, there are community concerns about the consequences of climate change impacts for community health and local ecosystems. Observations made by Tribal Elders about decreasing annual snowfall and milder winter temperatures over the 20[th] century initiated an investigation of local climate and hydrologic data by the Tribal College. The resulting analysis of meteorological data confirmed the decline in annual snowfall and an increase in frost free days. In addition, the data show a shift in precipitation from winter to early spring and a significant increase in days exceeding 90° F (32° C). Streamflow data show a long-term trend of declining discharge. Elders noted that the changes are affecting fish distribution within local streams and plant species which provide subsistence foods. Concerns about warmer summer temperatures also include heat exposure during outdoor ceremonies that involve days of fasting without food or water. Additional community concerns about the effects of climate change include increasing flood frequency and fire severity, as well as declining water quality. The authors call for local research to understand and document current effects and project future impacts as a basis for planning adaptive strategies.}, }
@article {pmid24264968, year = {2013}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Humans fueled global warming millennia ago.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {342}, number = {6161}, pages = {918}, doi = {10.1126/science.342.6161.918}, pmid = {24264968}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Humans ; Ice Cover/*chemistry ; Industry/*trends ; Methane/*analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid24261700, year = {2013}, author = {Jehn, M and Donaldson, G and Kiran, B and Liebers, U and Mueller, K and Scherer, D and Endlicher, W and Witt, C}, title = {Tele-monitoring reduces exacerbation of COPD in the context of climate change--a randomized controlled trial.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {99}, pmid = {24261700}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {Aged ; Climate Change ; Female ; Germany ; Heat Stress Disorders/complications/*physiopathology ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/etiology/*physiopathology ; *Telemetry/nursing ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: A home based tele-monitoring system was developed to assess the effects of heat stress (days > 25°C) on clinical and functional status in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).<br><br>METHODS: Sixty-two COPD patients (GOLD II-IV) were randomized into a tele-monitoring Group (TG, N = 32) or Control Group (CG, N = 30). Tele-monitoring included 1) daily clinical status (COPD Assessment Test-CAT), 2) daily lung function and 3) weekly 6-minute walk test (6MWT). Duration of monitoring lasted a total of nine months (9 M).<br><br>RESULTS: From June 1st-August 31st 2012, 32 days with heat stress (29.0 &#xb1; 2.5&#xb0;C) were recorded and matched with 32 thermal comfort days (21.0 &#xb1; 2.9&#xb0;C). During heat stress, the TG showed a significant reduction in lung function and exercise capacity (FEV1% predicted: 51.1 &#xb1; 7.2 vs. 57.7 &#xb1; 5.0%; P <0.001 and 6MWT performance: 452 &#xb1; 85 vs. 600 &#xb1; 76 steps; P <0.001) and increase in CAT scores (19.2 &#xb1; 7.9 vs. 16.2 &#xb1; 7.2; P <0.001).Over summer, significantly fewer TG patients suffered exacerbation of COPD compared to CG patients (3 vs. 14; P = 0.006). Over entire 9 M follow-up, the TG group had fewer exacerbations compared to CG (7 vs. 22; P = 0.012), shorter cumulative hospital stay (34 vs. 97 days) and 43% fewer specialist consultations (24. vs. 42; P = 0.04).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Heat stress affects clinical and functional status in COPD. Tele-monitoring reduces exacerbation frequency and health care utilization during heat stress and other periods of the year.<br><br>TRIAL REGISTRATION DRKS-ID: DRK00000705.}, }
@article {pmid24261594, year = {2014}, author = {Evans, SE and Wallenstein, MD}, title = {Climate change alters ecological strategies of soil bacteria.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {155-164}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12206}, pmid = {24261594}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Bacteria/genetics ; *Bacterial Physiological Phenomena ; *Climate Change ; Phylogeny ; Rain/microbiology ; *Soil Microbiology ; Water/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The timing and magnitude of rainfall events are expected to change in future decades, resulting in longer drought periods and larger rainfall events. Although microbial community composition and function are both sensitive to changes in rainfall, it is unclear whether this is because taxa adopt strategies that maximise fitness under new regimes. We assessed whether bacteria exhibited phylogenetically conserved ecological strategies in response to drying-rewetting, and whether these strategies were altered by historical exposure to experimentally intensified rainfall patterns. By clustering relative abundance patterns, we identified three discrete ecological strategies and found that tolerance to drying-rewetting increased with exposure to intensified rainfall patterns. Changes in strategy were primarily due to changes in community composition, but also to strategy shifts within taxa. These moisture regime-selected ecological strategies may be predictable from disturbance history, and are likely to be linked to traits that influence the functional potential of microbial communities.}, }
@article {pmid24260868, year = {2013}, author = {Li, K and Feng, W}, title = {[Influence of both solar activity and the global warming on the variation trend of occurrence of sudden deafness].}, journal = {Lin chuang er bi yan hou tou jing wai ke za zhi = Journal of clinical otorhinolaryngology, head, and neck surgery}, volume = {27}, number = {16}, pages = {894-898}, pmid = {24260868}, issn = {2096-7993}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Hearing Loss, Sudden/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; *Solar Activity ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To investigate relationship of the long-term variation trend of the occurrence of sudden deafness respectively with solar activity and the global warming.<br><br>METHOD: We utilized the empirical mode decomposition, cross-correlation, and the statistical test methods to analyze the yearly percent rate (PR) of sudden deafness patients at the second affiliated hospital of Xian Jiangtong University, the yearly mean sunspot number (SSN), and the temperature series (T) in Xi'an district during the years of 1980 to 2009.<br><br>RESULT: The trend component of T was highly correlated to the trend component of PR, and the IMF (intrinsic mode function) component of SSN was highly correlated to the IMF component of PR.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The occurrence of sudden deafness is indeed statistically affected by solar activity and temperature. The trend component of PR is inferred to be probably caused by the trend component of T, and it is solar activity (SSN), especially its periodical wavelike component that should probably give rise to the wavelike component of the occurrence (PR) of sudden deafness. Some explanation has been given to issue the found relationship. Also given is the plausible mechanism of solar activity and temperature acting on occurrence of sudden deafness.}, }
@article {pmid24260581, year = {2013}, author = {Imperio, S and Bionda, R and Viterbi, R and Provenzale, A}, title = {Climate change and human disturbance can lead to local extinction of Alpine rock ptarmigan: new insight from the western Italian Alps.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {e81598}, pmid = {24260581}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Galliformes/*physiology ; Humans ; Italy ; Male ; *Models, Statistical ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior ; Seasons ; Snow ; }, abstract = {Alpine grouses are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their adaptation to extreme conditions and to their relict distributions in the Alps where global warming has been particularly marked in the last half century. Grouses are also currently threatened by habitat modification and human disturbance, and an assessment of the impact of multiple stressors is needed to predict the fate of Alpine populations of these birds in the next decades. We estimated the effect of climate change and human disturbance on a rock ptarmigan population living in the western Italian Alps by combining an empirical population modelling approach and stochastic simulations of the population dynamics under the a1B climate scenario and two different disturbance scenarios, represented by the development of a ski resort, through 2050.The early appearance of snow-free ground in the previous spring had a favorable effect on the rock ptarmigan population, probably through a higher reproductive success. On the contrary, delayed snowfall in autumn had a negative effect possibly due to a mismatch in time to molt to white winter plumage which increases predation risk. The regional climate model PROTHEUS does not foresee any significant change in snowmelt date in the study area, while the start date of continuous snow cover is expected to be significantly delayed. The net effect in the stochastic projections is a more or less pronounced (depending on the model used) decline in the studied population. The addition of extra-mortality due to collision with ski-lift wires led the population to fatal consequences in most projections. Should these results be confirmed by larger studies the conservation of Alpine populations would deserve more attention. To counterbalance the effects of climate change, the reduction of all causes of death should be pursued, through a strict preservation of the habitats in the present area of occurrence.}, }
@article {pmid24260464, year = {2013}, author = {Roy-Dufresne, E and Logan, T and Simon, JA and Chmura, GL and Millien, V}, title = {Poleward expansion of the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) under climate change: implications for the spread of lyme disease.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {e80724}, pmid = {24260464}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Borrelia burgdorferi ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Vectors ; Geography ; Lyme Disease/*epidemiology/transmission ; Mice ; *Peromyscus/microbiology ; Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; Quebec ; }, abstract = {The white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) is an important reservoir host for Borrelia burgdorferi, the pathogen responsible for Lyme disease, and its distribution is expanding northward. We used an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis to identify the climatic factors associated with the distribution shift of the white-footed mouse over the last 30 years at the northern edge of its range, and modeled its current and potential future (2050) distributions using the platform BIOMOD. A mild and shorter winter is favouring the northern expansion of the white-footed mouse in Québec. With more favorable winter conditions projected by 2050, the distribution range of the white-footed mouse is expected to expand further northward by 3° latitude. We also show that today in southern Québec, the occurrence of B. burgdorferi is associated with high probability of presence of the white-footed mouse. Changes in the distribution of the white-footed mouse will likely alter the geographical range of B. burgdorferi and impact the public health in northern regions that have yet to be exposed to Lyme disease.}, }
@article {pmid24260447, year = {2013}, author = {Reece, JS and Noss, RF and Oetting, J and Hoctor, T and Volk, M}, title = {A vulnerability assessment of 300 species in Florida: threats from sea level rise, land use, and climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {e80658}, pmid = {24260447}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; *Environment ; Expert Testimony ; Florida ; Humans ; Plants ; Quality Control ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri), Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii), Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis), and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium). We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida's biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.}, }
@article {pmid24260347, year = {2013}, author = {Gurney, GG and Melbourne-Thomas, J and Geronimo, RC and Aliño, PM and Johnson, CR}, title = {Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {e80137}, pmid = {24260347}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fishes ; Models, Theoretical ; Stress, Physiological/*physiology ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general understanding of reef systems.}, }
@article {pmid24257183, year = {2013}, author = {Fan, JC and Liu, QY}, title = {[Research progress on the effect of climate change on dengue vector].}, journal = {Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi}, volume = {34}, number = {7}, pages = {745-749}, pmid = {24257183}, issn = {0254-6450}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid24254389, year = {2014}, author = {Aguilar-Fenollosa, E and Jacas, JA}, title = {Can we forecast the effects of climate change on entomophagous biological control agents?.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {70}, number = {6}, pages = {853-859}, doi = {10.1002/ps.3678}, pmid = {24254389}, issn = {1526-4998}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropods/parasitology/*physiology ; *Biological Control Agents ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/parasitology/*physiology ; Droughts ; Food Chain ; Genetic Variation ; Hot Temperature ; Ozone ; }, abstract = {The worldwide climate has been changing rapidly over the past decades. Air temperatures have been increasing in most regions and will probably continue to rise for most of the present century, regardless of any mitigation policy put in place. Although increased herbivory from enhanced biomass production and changes in plant quality are generally accepted as a consequence of global warming, the eventual status of any pest species will mostly depend on the relative effects of climate change on its own versus its natural enemies' complex. Because a bottom-up amplification effect often occurs in trophic webs subjected to any kind of disturbance, natural enemies are expected to suffer the effects of climate change to a greater extent than their phytophagous hosts/preys. A deeper understanding of the genotypic diversity of the populations of natural enemies and their target pests will allow an informed reaction to climate change. New strategies for the selection of exotic natural enemies and their release and establishment will have to be adopted. Conservation biological control will probably become the keystone for the successful management of these biological control agents.}, }
@article {pmid24250755, year = {2013}, author = {Dile, YT and Berndtsson, R and Setegn, SG}, title = {Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin -Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {e79296}, pmid = {24250755}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Calibration ; *Climate Change ; Ethiopia ; Hydrology ; *Lakes ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; *Rivers ; Seasons ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to have severe effects on water availability in Ethiopia. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Abay River, Upper Blue Nile Basin. The Statistical Downscaling Tool (SDSM) was used to downscale the HadCM3 (Hadley centre Climate Model 3) Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenario data into finer scale resolution. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up, calibrated, and validated. SDSM downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to the SWAT model. The climate projection analysis was done by dividing the period 2010-2100 into three time windows with each 30 years of data. The period 1990-2001 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that annual mean precipitation may decrease in the first 30-year period but increase in the following two 30-year periods. The decrease in mean monthly precipitation may be as much as about -30% during 2010-2040 but the increase may be more than +30% in 2070-2100. The impact of climate change may cause a decrease in mean monthly flow volume between -40% to -50% during 2010-2040 but may increase by more than the double during 2070-2100. Climate change appears to have negligible effect on low flow conditions of the river. Seasonal mean flow volume, however, may increase by more than the double and +30% to +40% for the Belg (small rainy season) and Kiremit (main rainy season) periods, respectively. Overall, it appears that climate change will result in an annual increase in flow volume for the Gilgel Abay River. The increase in flow is likely to have considerable importance for local small scale irrigation activities. Moreover, it will help harnessing a significant amount of water for ongoing dam projects in the Gilgel Abay River Basin.}, }
@article {pmid24249117, year = {2014}, author = {Carlyle, CN and Fraser, LH and Turkington, R}, title = {Response of grassland biomass production to simulated climate change and clipping along an elevation gradient.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {174}, number = {3}, pages = {1065-1073}, pmid = {24249117}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {*Altitude ; *Biomass ; British Columbia ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Herbivory ; Poaceae/*physiology ; Temperature ; Water/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Changes in rainfall and temperature regimes are altering plant productivity in grasslands worldwide, and these climate change factors are likely to interact with grassland disturbances, particularly grazing. Understanding how plant production responds to both climate change and defoliation, and how this response varies among grassland types, is important for the long-term sustainability of grasslands. For 4 years, we manipulated temperature [ambient and increased using open-top chambers (OTC)], water (ambient, reduced using rainout shelters and increased using hand watering) and defoliation (clipped, and unclipped) in three grassland types along an elevation gradient. We monitored plant cover and biomass and found that OTC reduced biomass by 15%, but clipping and water treatments interacted with each other and their effects varied in different grassland types. For example, total biomass did not decline in the higher elevation grasslands due to clipping, and water addition mitigated the effects of clipping on subordinate grasses in the lower grasslands. The response of total biomass was driven by dominant plant species while subordinate grasses and forbs showed more variable responses. Overall, our results demonstrate that biomass in the highest elevation grassland was least effected by the treatments and the response of biomass tended to be dependent on interactions between climate change treatments and defoliation. Together, the results suggest that ecosystem function of these grasslands under altered climate patterns will be dependent on site-specific management.}, }
@article {pmid24248352, year = {2013}, author = {Drijfhout, S and Gleeson, E and Dijkstra, HA and Livina, V}, title = {Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {49}, pages = {19713-19718}, pmid = {24248352}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Fresh Water ; Ice Cover/*chemistry ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Salinity ; Time Factors ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24244765, year = {2013}, author = {Colón-González, FJ and Fezzi, C and Lake, IR and Hunter, PR}, title = {The effects of weather and climate change on dengue.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {e2503}, pmid = {24244765}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There is much uncertainty about the future impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Such uncertainty reflects the difficulties in modelling the complex interactions between disease, climatic and socioeconomic determinants. We used a comprehensive panel dataset from Mexico covering 23 years of province-specific dengue reports across nine climatic regions to estimate the impact of weather on dengue, accounting for the effects of non-climatic factors.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a Generalized Additive Model, we estimated statistically significant effects of weather and access to piped water on dengue. The effects of weather were highly nonlinear. Minimum temperature (Tmin) had almost no effect on dengue incidence below 5 &#xb0;C, but Tmin values above 18 &#xb0;C showed a rapidly increasing effect. Maximum temperature above 20 &#xb0;C also showed an increasing effect on dengue incidence with a peak around 32 &#xb0;C, after which the effect declined. There is also an increasing effect of precipitation as it rose to about 550 mm, beyond which such effect declines. Rising access to piped water was related to increasing dengue incidence. We used our model estimations to project the potential impact of climate change on dengue incidence under three emission scenarios by 2030, 2050, and 2080. An increase of up to 40% in dengue incidence by 2080 was estimated under climate change while holding the other driving factors constant.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that weather significantly influences dengue incidence in Mexico and that such relationships are highly nonlinear. These findings highlight the importance of using flexible model specifications when analysing weather-health interactions. Climate change may contribute to an increase in dengue incidence. Rising access to piped water may aggravate dengue incidence if it leads to increased domestic water storage. Climate change may therefore influence the success or failure of future efforts against dengue.}, }
@article {pmid24239310, year = {2014}, author = {Goh, BP and Lai, CH}, title = {Establishing the thermal threshold of the tropical mussel Perna viridis in the face of global warming.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {85}, number = {2}, pages = {325-331}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2013.10.041}, pmid = {24239310}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Antioxidants/metabolism ; Biomarkers/metabolism ; *Global Warming ; Glycogen/metabolism ; Perna/metabolism/*physiology ; *Stress, Physiological ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {With increasing recognition that maximum oxygen demand is the unifying limit in tolerance, the first line of thermal sensitivity is, as a corollary, due to capacity limitations at a high level of organisational complexity before individual, molecular or membrane functions become disturbed. In this study the tropical mussel Perna viridis were subjected to temperature change of 0.4 °C per hour from ambient to 8-36 °C. By comparing thermal mortality against biochemical indices (hsp70, gluthathione), physiological indices (glycogen, FRAP, NRRT) and behavioural indices (clearance rate), a hierarchy of thermal tolerance was therein elucidated, ranging from systemic to cellular to molecular levels. Generally, while biochemical indices indicated a stress signal much earlier than the more integrated behavioural indices, failure of the latter (indicating a tolerance limit and transition to pejus state) occurred much earlier than the other indices tending towards thermal extremities at both ends of the thermal spectrum.}, }
@article {pmid24238812, year = {2014}, author = {Gaudard, L and Romerio, F and Dalla Valle, F and Gorret, R and Maran, S and Ravazzani, G and Stoffel, M and Volonterio, M}, title = {Climate change impacts on hydropower in the Swiss and Italian Alps.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {493}, number = {}, pages = {1211-1221}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.10.012}, pmid = {24238812}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This paper provides a synthesis and comparison of methodologies and results obtained in several studies devoted to the impact of climate change on hydropower. By putting into perspective various case studies, we provide a broader context and improved understanding of climate changes on energy production. We also underline the strengths and weaknesses of the approaches used as far as technical, physical and economical aspects are concerned. Although the catchments under investigation are located close to each other in geographic terms (Swiss and Italian Alps), they represent a wide variety of situations which may be affected by differing evolutions for instance in terms of annual runoff. In this study, we also differentiate between run-of-river, storage and pumping-storage power plants. By integrating and comparing various analyses carried out in the framework of the EU-FP7 ACQWA project, this paper discusses the complexity as well as current and future issues of hydropower management in the entire Alpine region.}, }
@article {pmid24237260, year = {2014}, author = {Johansson, J and Smith, HG and Jonzén, N}, title = {Adaptation of reproductive phenology to climate change with ecological feedback via dominance hierarchies.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {83}, number = {2}, pages = {440-449}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12151}, pmid = {24237260}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; *Reproduction ; *Social Dominance ; Songbirds/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Phenological shifts belong to the most commonly observed biological responses to recent climate change. It is, however, often unclear how these shifts are linked to demography and competitive interactions. We develop an eco-evolutionary model to study adaptation of timing of reproduction in organisms with social dominance hierarchies. We focus on residential birds with winter flocks, where success in competition for territories among offspring depends on ranking given by prior residence. We study the effects of environmental change on breeding population densities, ensuing selection pressures and long-term evolutionary equilibria. We consider changes in food peak date, in winter survival, in total reproductive output and in the width of the food distribution. We show that the evolutionarily stable hatching date will advance with increasing winter survival and reproductive output since these parameters increase habitat saturation and post-fledging competition. Increasing the length of the breeding season also selects for earlier hatching date due to the reduced costs for producing offspring with high ranking. Our analysis shows that there is little correlation between short-term and long-term population responses across different scenarios of environmental change. However, short-term population growth consistently predicts selection for earlier reproduction. Hence, the model identifies changed breeding population density as a key factor to understanding phenological adaptation in systems with prior residence advantages. While selection for change in reproductive phenology is often explained by changed seasonal variation in environmental variables, such as food abundance, we show that environmental change without apparent effects on seasonality can critically affect phenological adaptation. Such factors can mask or even override influences of changed seasonality on phenology. The model thus offers a conceptually new set of explanations for understanding phenological and demographic trends in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid24233711, year = {2013}, author = {Bard, E}, title = {Climate change. Out of the African Humid Period.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {342}, number = {6160}, pages = {808-809}, doi = {10.1126/science.1246519}, pmid = {24233711}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Humidity ; *Ice Cover ; *Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid24225646, year = {2013}, author = {McMichael, AJ}, title = {Impediments to comprehensive research on climate change and health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {6096-6105}, pmid = {24225646}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Research Design ; }, abstract = {During every climatic era Life on Earth is constrained by a limited range of climatic conditions, outside which thriving and then surviving becomes difficult. This applies at both planetary and organism (species) levels. Further, many causal influences of climate change on human health entail changes-often disruptive, sometimes irreversible-in complex system functioning. Understanding the diverse health risks from climate change, and their influence pathways, presents a challenge to environmental health researchers whose prior work has been in a more definable, specific and quantitative milieu. Extension of the research agenda and conceptual framework to assess present and future health risks from climate change may be constrained by three factors: (i) lack of historically-informed understanding of population-health sensitivity to climatic changes; (ii) an instinctual 'epidemiologising' tendency to choose research topics amenable to conventional epidemiological analysis and risk estimation; and (iii) under-confidence in relation to interdisciplinary collaborative scenario-based modeling of future health risks. These constraints must be recognized and remedied. And environmental researchers must argue for heightened public attention to today's macro-environmental threats to present and future population health-emphasising the ecological dimension of these determinants of long-term health that apply to whole populations and communities, not just to individuals and social groupings.}, }
@article {pmid24224257, year = {2013}, author = {Funayama, K}, title = {Effect of climate change on annual fluctuations in the population density of the brown marmorated stink bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in northern Japan.}, journal = {Journal of economic entomology}, volume = {106}, number = {5}, pages = {2141-2143}, doi = {10.1603/ec13240}, pmid = {24224257}, issn = {0022-0493}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Heteroptera/*physiology ; Insect Control ; Japan ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The relationship between the population density of overwintering adults of the brown marmorated stink bug and the temperatures of each month during the preceding November to April was investigated in Akita Prefecture, northern Japan, from 1999 to 2012. The number of adults entering traps for overwintering at the monitored hibernation site differed considerably among years. There was a significant negative correlation between the increase ratio (the ratio of the number collected in the current year to the number collected in the previous year) and the mean daily maximum temperature of the preceding March and April. These results suggest that the proportion of surviving adult brown marmorated stink bug may be higher when temperatures in early spring (March and April) are lower, as the postoverwintering adults may need to survive without food for a shorter period of time.}, }
@article {pmid24223272, year = {2013}, author = {Woodin, SA and Hilbish, TJ and Helmuth, B and Jones, SJ and Wethey, DS}, title = {Climate change, species distribution models, and physiological performance metrics: predicting when biogeographic models are likely to fail.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {10}, pages = {3334-3346}, pmid = {24223272}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Modeling the biogeographic consequences of climate change requires confidence in model predictions under novel conditions. However, models often fail when extended to new locales, and such instances have been used as evidence of a change in physiological tolerance, that is, a fundamental niche shift. We explore an alternative explanation and propose a method for predicting the likelihood of failure based on physiological performance curves and environmental variance in the original and new environments. We define the transient event margin (TEM) as the gap between energetic performance failure, defined as CTmax, and the upper lethal limit, defined as LTmax. If TEM is large relative to environmental fluctuations, models will likely fail in new locales. If TEM is small relative to environmental fluctuations, models are likely to be robust for new locales, even when mechanism is unknown. Using temperature, we predict when biogeographic models are likely to fail and illustrate this with a case study. We suggest that failure is predictable from an understanding of how climate drives nonlethal physiological responses, but for many species such data have not been collected. Successful biogeographic forecasting thus depends on understanding when the mechanisms limiting distribution of a species will differ among geographic regions, or at different times, resulting in realized niche shifts. TEM allows prediction of the likelihood of such model failure.}, }
@article {pmid24223270, year = {2013}, author = {Brusca, RC and Wiens, JF and Meyer, WM and Eble, J and Franklin, K and Overpeck, JT and Moore, W}, title = {Dramatic response to climate change in the Southwest: Robert Whittaker's 1963 Arizona Mountain plant transect revisited.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {10}, pages = {3307-3319}, pmid = {24223270}, issn = {2045-7758}, support = {K12 GM000708/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Models analyzing how Southwestern plant communities will respond to climate change predict that increases in temperature will lead to upward elevational shifts of montane species. We tested this hypothesis by reexamining Robert Whittaker's 1963 plant transect in the Santa Catalina Mountains of southern Arizona, finding that this process is already well underway. Our survey, five decades after Whittaker's, reveals large changes in the elevational ranges of common montane plants, while mean annual rainfall has decreased over the past 20 years, and mean annual temperatures increased 0.25°C/decade from 1949 to 2011 in the Tucson Basin. Although elevational changes in species are individualistic, significant overall upward movement of the lower elevation boundaries, and elevational range contractions, have occurred. This is the first documentation of significant upward shifts of lower elevation range boundaries in Southwestern montane plant species over decadal time, confirming that previous hypotheses are correct in their prediction that mountain communities in the Southwest will be strongly impacted by warming, and that the Southwest is already experiencing a rapid vegetation change.}, }
@article {pmid24220655, year = {2014}, author = {Matías, L and Jump, AS}, title = {Impacts of predicted climate change on recruitment at the geographical limits of Scots pine.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {65}, number = {1}, pages = {299-310}, pmid = {24220655}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Biomass ; Climate Change ; Demography ; Geography ; Germination ; Pinus sylvestris/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Plant Roots/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Plant Shoots/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Rain ; Seasons ; Seedlings/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Seeds/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Soil/chemistry ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Water/physiology ; }, abstract = {Ongoing changes in global climate are having a significant impact on the distribution of plant species, with effects particularly evident at range limits. We assessed the capacity of Pinus sylvestris L. populations at northernmost and southernmost limits of the distribution to cope with projected changes in climate. We investigated responses including seed germination and early seedling growth and survival, using seeds from northernmost (Kevo, Finland) and southernmost (Granada, Spain) populations. Seeds were grown under current climate conditions in each area and under temperatures increased by 5 °C, with changes in precipitation of +30% or -30% with reference to current values at northern and southern limits, respectively, in a fully factorial controlled-conditions experimental design. Increased temperatures reduced germination time and enhanced biomass gain at both range edges but reduced survival at the southern range edge. Higher precipitation also increased survival and biomass but only under a southern climate. Seeds from the southern origin emerged faster, produced bigger seedlings, allocated higher biomass to roots, and survived better than northern ones. These results indicate that recruitment will be reduced at the southernmost range of the species, whereas it will be enhanced at the northern limit, and that the southern seed sources are better adapted to survive under drier conditions. However, future climate will impose a trade-off between seedling growth and survival probabilities. At the southern range edge, higher growth may render individuals more susceptible to mortality where greater aboveground biomass results in greater water loss through evapotranspiration.}, }
@article {pmid24219507, year = {2013}, author = {Fischer, D and Thomas, SM and Suk, JE and Sudre, B and Hess, A and Tjaden, NB and Beierkuhnlein, C and Semenza, JC}, title = {Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus' temperature requirements.}, journal = {International journal of health geographics}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {51}, pmid = {24219507}, issn = {1476-072X}, mesh = {Aedes ; Alphavirus Infections/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Animals ; Chikungunya Fever ; *Climate Change ; Europe/epidemiology ; *Geographic Mapping ; Humans ; *Insect Vectors/physiology ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Chikungunya was, from the European perspective, considered to be a travel-related tropical mosquito-borne disease prior to the first European outbreak in Northern Italy in 2007. This was followed by cases of autochthonous transmission reported in South-eastern France in 2010. Both events occurred after the introduction, establishment and expansion of the Chikungunya-competent and highly invasive disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in Europe. In order to assess whether these outbreaks are indicative of the beginning of a trend or one-off events, there is a need to further examine the factors driving the potential transmission of Chikungunya in Europe. The climatic suitability, both now and in the future, is an essential starting point for such an analysis.<br><br>METHODS: The climatic suitability for Chikungunya outbreaks was determined by using bioclimatic factors that influence, both vector and, pathogen. Climatic suitability for the European distribution of the vector Aedes albopictus was based upon previous correlative environmental niche models. Climatic risk classes were derived by combining climatic suitability for the vector with known temperature requirements for pathogen transmission, obtained from outbreak regions. In addition, the longest potential intra-annual season for Chikungunya transmission was estimated for regions with expected vector occurrences.In order to analyse spatio-temporal trends for risk exposure and season of transmission in Europe, climate change impacts are projected for three time-frames (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climatic projections are based on regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which builds on the global model ECHAM5.<br><br>RESULTS: European areas with current and future climatic suitability of Chikungunya transmission are identified. An increase in risk is projected for Western Europe (e.g. France and Benelux-States) in the first half of the 21st century and from mid-century onwards for central parts of Europe (e.g. Germany). Interestingly, the southernmost parts of Europe do not generally provide suitable conditions in these projections. Nevertheless, many Mediterranean regions will persist to be climatically suitable for transmission. Overall, the highest risk of transmission by the end of the 21st century was projected for France, Northern Italy and the Pannonian Basin (East-Central Europe). This general tendency is depicted in both, the A1B and B1 climate change scenarios.<br><br>CONCLUSION: In order to guide preparedness for further outbreaks, it is crucial to anticipate risk as to identify areas where specific public health measures, such as surveillance and vector control, can be implemented. However, public health practitioners need to be aware that climate is only one factor driving the transmission of vector-borne disease.}, }
@article {pmid24219420, year = {2014}, author = {Smith, N and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {The role of emotion in global warming policy support and opposition.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {937-948}, pmid = {24219420}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {*Emotions ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid24218662, year = {2013}, author = {Caruana, CM}, title = {A new breed of model: estimating the impact of climate change on malaria transmission.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {121}, number = {10}, pages = {A310}, pmid = {24218662}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Malaria/*transmission ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, }
@article {pmid24216516, year = {2014}, author = {Balci, E and Borlu, A and Kilic, AU and Demiraslan, H and Oksuzkaya, A and Doganay, M}, title = {Tularemia outbreaks in Kayseri, Turkey: an evaluation of the effect of climate change and climate variability on tularemia outbreaks.}, journal = {Journal of infection and public health}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {125-132}, doi = {10.1016/j.jiph.2013.09.002}, pmid = {24216516}, issn = {1876-035X}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Risk Assessment ; Tularemia/*epidemiology ; Turkey/epidemiology ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of tularemia outbreak and the effect of climate variability on this outbreak in Kayseri.<br><br>METHODS: The outbreak places, infection dates, source of infection, and the number of cases were recorded and analyzed. This information was obtained from the Regional Public Health Department. Climate data were supplied by the Regional Meteorological Service.<br><br>RESULTS: The first case in Sariz was recorded in 2005. Thereafter, 2 cases were reported in 2006 and 1 case in 2007. During 2010, 21 cases were recorded in 7 towns, 62 cases in 2011 and 27 cases in 2012. A total number of 110 cases were recorded in 12 out of 16 towns in Kayseri Province between 2010 and 2012. The majority of cases were seen in the north-eastern, east and south-eastern parts of Kayseri Province; located in higher altitudes (over 1000m from sea level). It was accepted that the outbreak was originated from water sources and was confirmed by few number of water samples collected from outbreak areas. Considering climate variations, the outbreak occurred between 1988 and 2009 during a dry, low humid, high temperature period after rainy season.<br><br>CONCLUSION: A tularemia outbreak was observed between 2010 and 2012 with the initiation of rainy years. High temperature for a long period accompanied by low rainfall and low humidity may affect the vector's biology and initiate a tularemia outbreak in high plateaus in Kayseri Province and around.}, }
@article {pmid24216361, year = {2013}, author = {Zhang, Y and Qian, Y and Bremer, DJ and Kaye, JP}, title = {Simulation of Nitrous Oxide Emissions and Estimation of Global Warming Potential in Turfgrass Systems Using the DAYCENT Model.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {42}, number = {4}, pages = {1100-1108}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2012.0486}, pmid = {24216361}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Lolium ; Models, Theoretical ; *Nitrous Oxide ; }, abstract = {Nitrous oxide (NO) emissions are an important component of the greenhouse gas budget for turfgrasses. To estimate NO emissions and global warming potential, the DAYCENT ecosystem model was parameterized and applied to turfgrass ecosystems. The annual cumulative NO emissions predicted by the DAYCENT model were close to the measured emission rates of Kentucky bluegrass (L.) sites in Colorado (within 16% of the observed values). For the perennial ryegrass (L.) site in Kansas, the DAYCENT model initially overestimated the NO emissions for all treatments (urea and ammonium sulfate at 250 kg N ha yr and urea at 50 kg N ha yr) by about 200%. After including the effect of biological nitrification inhibition in the root exudate of perennial ryegrass, the DAYCENT model correctly simulated the NO emissions for all treatments (within 8% of the observed values). After calibration and validation, the DAYCENT model was used to simulate NO emissions and carbon sequestration of a Kentucky bluegrass lawn under a series of management regimes. The model simulation suggested that gradually reducing fertilization as the lawn ages from 0 to 50 yr would significantly reduce long-term NO emissions by approximately 40% when compared with applying N at a constant rate of 150 kg N ha yr. Our simulation indicates that a Kentucky bluegrass lawn in Colorado could change from a sink to a weak source of greenhouse gas emissions 20 to 30 yr after establishment.}, }
@article {pmid24214576, year = {2014}, author = {Albouy, C and Velez, L and Coll, M and Colloca, F and Le Loc'h, F and Mouillot, D and Gravel, D}, title = {From projected species distribution to food-web structure under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {730-741}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12467}, pmid = {24214576}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Fishes ; *Food Chain ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Climate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food-web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food-web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080-2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large-scale impacts of climate change on marine food-web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid24205051, year = {2013}, author = {Basannagari, B and Kala, CP}, title = {Climate change and apple farming in Indian Himalayas: a study of local perceptions and responses.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {e77976}, pmid = {24205051}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Climate Change ; India ; *Malus ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Apple farming is an important activity and profession of farmer communities in the Himalayan states of India. At present, the traditional apple farming is under stress due to changes in climate. The present study was undertaken in an Indian Himalayan state, Himachal Pradesh, with the major aim of studying perceptions of farmers on the effects of climate change on apple farming along the altitudinal gradient. Through questionnaire survey, the perceptions of farmers were recorded at low hills (<2500 m), mid-hills (2500-3000 m), and upper hills (>3000 m). At all elevation range the majority of farmers reported that there was increase in atmospheric temperature, and hence at low hills 72% farmers believed that this increase in temperature was responsible for decline in fruit size and so that the quality. Thirty five percent farmers at high hills and 30% at mid hills perceived frost as a major cause for damaging apple farming whereas at low hills 24% farmers perceived hailstorm as the major deterrent for apple farming. The majority of farmers, along the altitude (92% at high hills, 79% at mid hills and 83% at low hills), reported decrease in snowfall. The majority of farmers at low altitude and mid altitude reported decline in apple farming whereas 71% farmers at high hill areas refused decline in apple farming. About 73-83% farmers admitted delay in apple's harvesting period. At mid hills apple scab and at low hills pest attack on apple crops are considered as the indicators of climate change. The change in land use practices was attributed to climate change and in many areas the land under apple farming was replaced for production of coarse grains, seasonal vegetables and other horticulture species. Scientific investigation claiming changes in Indian Himalayan climate corroborates perceptions of farmers, as examined during the present study.}, }
@article {pmid24202163, year = {2013}, author = {Moss, RH and Meehl, GA and Lemos, MC and Smith, JB and Arnold, JR and Arnott, JC and Behar, D and Brasseur, GP and Broomell, SB and Busalacchi, AJ and Dessai, S and Ebi, KL and Edmonds, JA and Furlow, J and Goddard, L and Hartmann, HC and Hurrell, JW and Katzenberger, JW and Liverman, DM and Mote, PW and Moser, SC and Kumar, A and Pulwarty, RS and Seyller, EA and Turner, BL and Washington, WM and Wilbanks, TJ}, title = {Climate change. Hell and high water: practice-relevant adaptation science.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {342}, number = {6159}, pages = {696-698}, doi = {10.1126/science.1239569}, pmid = {24202163}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disaster Planning ; *Floods ; Research/*organization &amp; administration ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid24202158, year = {2013}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. In the hot seat.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {342}, number = {6159}, pages = {688-689}, doi = {10.1126/science.342.6159.688}, pmid = {24202158}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Cyclonic Storms ; *Disasters ; *Extreme Heat ; Fires ; *Global Warming ; }, }
@article {pmid24200028, year = {2014}, author = {De La Torre, AR and Wang, T and Jaquish, B and Aitken, SN}, title = {Adaptation and exogenous selection in a Picea glauca × Picea engelmannii hybrid zone: implications for forest management under climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {201}, number = {2}, pages = {687-699}, pmid = {24200028}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; *Climate Change ; Forestry ; Genome, Plant ; Hybridization, Genetic ; Phenotype ; Picea/anatomy &amp; histology/genetics/*physiology ; Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {The nature of selection responsible for the maintenance of the economically and ecologically important Picea glauca × Picea engelmannii hybrid zone was investigated. Genomic, phenotypic and climatic data were used to test assumptions of hybrid zone maintenance and to model future scenarios under climate change. Genome-wide estimates of admixture based on a panel of 86 candidate gene single nucleotide polymorphisms were combined with long-term quantitative data on growth and survival (over 20 yr), as well as one-time assessments of bud burst and bud set phenology, and cold hardiness traits. A total of 15,498 individuals were phenotyped for growth and survival. Our results suggest that the P. glauca × P. engelmannii hybrid zone is maintained by local adaptation to growing season length and snowpack (exogenous selection). Hybrids appeared to be fitter than pure species in intermediate environments, which fits expectations of the bounded hybrid superiority model of hybrid zone maintenance. Adaptive introgression from parental species has probably contributed to increased hybrid fitness in intermediate habitats. While P. engelmannii ancestry is higher than P. glauca ancestry in hybrid populations, on average, selective breeding in managed hybrid populations is shifting genomic composition towards P. glauca, potentially pre-adapting managed populations to warmer climates.}, }
@article {pmid24198951, year = {2013}, author = {Del Castillo, RF and Trujillo-Argueta, S and Rivera-García, R and Gómez-Ocampo, Z and Mondragón-Chaparro, D}, title = {Possible combined effects of climate change, deforestation, and harvesting on the epiphyte Catopsis compacta: a multidisciplinary approach.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {11}, pages = {3935-3946}, pmid = {24198951}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change, habitat loss, and harvesting are potential drivers of species extinction. These factors are unlikely to act on isolation, but their combined effects are poorly understood. We explored these effects in Catopsis compacta, an epiphytic bromeliad commercially harvested in Oaxaca, Mexico. We analyzed local climate change projections, the dynamics of the vegetation patches, the distribution of Catopsis in the patches, together with population genetics and demographic information. A drying and warming climate trend projected by most climate change models may contribute to explain the poor forest regeneration. Catopsis shows a positive mean stochastic population growth. A PVA reveals that quasi-extinction probabilities are not significantly affected by the current levels of harvesting or by a high drop in the frequency of wet years (2%) but increase sharply when harvesting intensity duplicates. Genetic analyses show a high population genetic diversity, and no evidences of population subdivision or a past bottleneck. Colonization mostly takes place on hosts at the edges of the fragments. Over the last 27 years, the vegetation cover has being lost at a 0.028 years(-1) rate, but fragment perimeter has increased 0.076 years(-1). The increases in fragment perimeter and vegetation openness, likely caused by climate change and logging, appear to increase the habitat of Catopsis, enhance gene flow, and maintain a growing and highly genetically diverse population, in spite of harvesting. Our study evidences conflicting requirements between the epiphytes and their hosts and antagonistic effects of climate change and fragmentation with harvesting on a species that can exploit open spaces in the forest. A full understanding of the consequences of potential threatening factors on species persistence or extinction requires the inspection of the interactions of these factors among each other and their effects on both the focus species and the species on which this species depends.}, }
@article {pmid24198948, year = {2013}, author = {Henry, P and Russello, MA}, title = {Adaptive divergence along environmental gradients in a climate-change-sensitive mammal.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {11}, pages = {3906-3917}, pmid = {24198948}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {In the face of predicted climate change, a broader understanding of biotic responses to varying environments has become increasingly important within the context of biodiversity conservation. Local adaptation is one potential option, yet remarkably few studies have harnessed genomic tools to evaluate the efficacy of this response within natural populations. Here, we show evidence of selection driving divergence of a climate-change-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps), distributed along elevation gradients at its northern range margin in the Coast Mountains of British Columbia (BC), Canada. We employed amplified-fragment-length-polymorphism-based genomic scans to conduct genomewide searches for candidate loci among populations inhabiting varying environments from sea level to 1500 m. Using several independent approaches to outlier locus detection, we identified 68 candidate loci putatively under selection (out of a total 1509 screened), 15 of which displayed significant associations with environmental variables including annual precipitation and maximum summer temperature. These candidate loci may represent important targets for predicting pika responses to climate change and informing novel approaches to wildlife conservation in a changing world.}, }
@article {pmid24189870, year = {2013}, author = {Hernández-Garduño, E and Garduño-Alanís, A and Santamaría-Benhumea, AM and Santamaría-Benhumea, N and Meneses-Calderón, J and Herrera-Villalobos, JE}, title = {Climate change, air pollution, and COPD outcomes: too many factors to be considered, even barometric pressure!.}, journal = {Chest}, volume = {144}, number = {5}, pages = {1731}, doi = {10.1378/chest.13-1390}, pmid = {24189870}, issn = {1931-3543}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Lung/*physiopathology ; }, }
@article {pmid24186961, year = {2013}, author = {Testo, WL and Watkins, JE}, title = {Understanding mechanisms of rarity in pteridophytes: competition and climate change threaten the rare fern Asplenium scolopendrium var. americanum (Aspleniaceae).}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {100}, number = {11}, pages = {2261-2270}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1300150}, pmid = {24186961}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environment ; Ferns/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Germ Cells, Plant/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Germination ; New York ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Understanding the ecology of rare species can inform aspects of conservation strategies; however, the mechanisms of rarity remain elusive for most pteridophytes, which possess independent and ecologically distinct gametophyte and sporophyte generations. To elucidate factors contributing to recent declines of the rare fern Asplenium scolopendrium var. americanum, we studied the ecology and ecophysiology of its gametophyte generation, focusing on responses to competition, temperature, and water stress.<br><br>METHODS: Gametophytes of A. scolopendrium var. americanum, its widespread European relative A. scolopendrium var. scolopendrium, and five co-occurring fern species were grown from spores. Gametophytes were grown at 20&#xb0;C and 25&#xb0;C, and germination rates, intra- and interspecific competition, desiccation tolerance, and sporophyte production were determined for all species.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Gametophytes of A. scolopendrium var. americanum had the lowest rates of germination and sporophyte production among all species studied and exhibited the greatest sensitivity to interspecific competition, temperature increases, and desiccation. Mature gametophytes of A. scolopendrium var. americanum grown at 25&#xb0;C were 84.6% smaller than those grown at 20&#xb0;C, and only 1.5% produced sporophytes after 200 d in culture. Similar responses were not observed in other species studied.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The recent declines and current status of populations of A. scolopendrium var. americanum are linked to its gametophyte's limited capacity to tolerate competition and physiological stress linked to climate change. This is the first study to develop a mechanistic understanding of rarity and decline in a fern and demonstrates the importance of considering the ecology of the gametophyte in plants with independent sporophyte and gametophyte generations.}, }
@article {pmid24180016, year = {2013}, author = {Laghari, JR}, title = {Climate change: Melting glaciers bring energy uncertainty.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {502}, number = {7473}, pages = {617-618}, doi = {10.1038/502617a}, pmid = {24180016}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; *Altitude ; Asia, Western ; *Climate Change ; Electricity ; Freezing ; *Ice Cover ; Power Plants/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Uncertainty ; *Water Movements ; }, }
@article {pmid24178125, year = {2015}, author = {Havens, KE and Steinman, AD}, title = {Ecological responses of a large shallow lake (Okeechobee, Florida) to climate change and potential future hydrologic regimes.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {763-775}, pmid = {24178125}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Florida ; Forecasting/methods ; *Hydrology ; *Lakes ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {We considered how Lake Okeechobee, a large shallow lake in Florida, USA, might respond to altered hydrology associated with climate change scenarios in 2060. Water budgets and stage hydrographs were provided from the South Florida Water Management Model, a regional hydrologic model used to develop plans for Everglades restoration. Future scenarios include a 10% increase or decrease in rainfall (RF) and a calculated increase in evapotranspiration (ET), which is based on a 1.5 °C rise in temperature. Increasing RF and ET had counter-balancing effects on the water budget and when changing concurrently did not affect hydrology. In contrast, when RF decreased while ET increased, this resulted in a large change in hydrology. The surface elevation of the lake dropped by more than 2 m under this scenario compared to a future base condition, and extreme low elevation persisted for multiple years. In this declining RF/increasing ET scenario, the littoral and near-shore zones, areas that support emergent and submerged plants, were dry 55% of the time compared to less than 4% of the time in the future base run. There also were times when elevation increased as much as 3 m after intense RF events. Overall, these changes in hydrologic conditions would dramatically alter ecosystem services. Uncertainty about responses is highest at the pelagic-littoral interface, in regard to whether an extremely shallow lake could support submerged vascular plants, which are critical to the recreational fishery and for migratory birds. Along with improved regional climate modeling, research in that interface zone is needed to guide the adaptive process of Everglades restoration.}, }
@article {pmid24176076, year = {2013}, author = {Gillette, S}, title = {Identifying the public health benefits of livestock-dependent, agro-ecosystems under climate change.}, journal = {Animal health research reviews}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {155-158}, doi = {10.1017/S1466252313000157}, pmid = {24176076}, issn = {1475-2654}, mesh = {Africa ; Agriculture/*methods ; Animal Husbandry/*methods ; Animals ; Asia, Southeastern ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Insurance Benefits ; Livestock/*growth &amp; development ; Meat ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {As the demand for meat continues to grow in South Asia and Africa and access to communal sources of water and forage shrinks, intensification of small-scale livestock systems in peri-urban areas is expected to expand. In South East Asia, smallholder transition to livestock intensification has been transformative, increasing economic opportunities while also introducing new disease risks. While we have an understanding of the emerging disease burden from livestock intensification; we have just begun to understand the possible public health benefits of sustainable landscapes and the potential health savings accrued from disease avoidance. To date, few studies have attempted to quantify the health benefits attributable to sustainable agro-ecosystems, especially in regard to livestock systems. In this paper, I will examine what is needed to measure and communicate the public health benefits and cost-savings (from disease avoidance) of sustainable agro-ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid24170292, year = {2013}, author = {Ali, AM}, title = {Making climate change a priority in the NHS.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {347}, number = {}, pages = {f6481}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.f6481}, pmid = {24170292}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid24167443, year = {2013}, author = {Northfield, TD and Ives, AR}, title = {Coevolution and the effects of climate change on interacting species.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {e1001685}, pmid = {24167443}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Competitive Behavior ; Models, Biological ; Predatory Behavior ; Species Specificity ; Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that environmental changes may tip the balance between interacting species, leading to the extinction of one or more species. While it is recognized that evolution will play a role in determining how environmental changes directly affect species, the interactions among species force us to consider the coevolutionary responses of species to environmental changes.<br><br>We use simple models of competition, predation, and mutualism to organize and synthesize the ways coevolution modifies species interactions when climatic changes favor one species over another. In cases where species have conflicting interests (i.e., selection for increased interspecific interaction strength on one species is detrimental to the other), we show that coevolution reduces the effects of climate change, leading to smaller changes in abundances and reduced chances of extinction. Conversely, when species have nonconflicting interests (i.e., selection for increased interspecific interaction strength on one species benefits the other), coevolution increases the effects of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Coevolution sets up feedback loops that either dampen or amplify the effect of environmental change on species abundances depending on whether coevolution has conflicting or nonconflicting effects on species interactions. Thus, gaining a better understanding of the coevolutionary processes between interacting species is critical for understanding how communities respond to a changing climate. We suggest experimental methods to determine which types of coevolution (conflicting or nonconflicting) drive species interactions, which should lead to better understanding of the effects of coevolution on species adaptation. Conducting these experiments across environmental gradients will test our predictions of the effects of environmental change and coevolution on ecological communities.}, }
@article {pmid24165435, year = {2014}, author = {Thompson, RM and Beardall, J and Beringer, J and Grace, M and Sardina, P}, title = {Moving beyond methods: the need for a diverse programme in climate change research.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {125-e2}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12202}, pmid = {24165435}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Theoretical ; Research Design/*trends ; }, abstract = {Understanding effects of climate change on ecosystems will require a diverse range of approaches. We proposed using downscaled climate models to generate realistic weather scenarios as experimental treatments. Kreyling et al. propose a gradient approach to determine the shape of response functions. These approaches are different, but highly complementary.}, }
@article {pmid24161807, year = {2013}, author = {Vicente, JR and Fernandes, RF and Randin, CF and Broennimann, O and Gonçalves, J and Marcos, B and Pôças, I and Alves, P and Guisan, A and Honrado, JP}, title = {Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {131}, number = {}, pages = {185-195}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.09.032}, pmid = {24161807}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.}, }
@article {pmid24159524, year = {2013}, author = {Rhee, HC}, title = {Willingness to pay for avoiding infection of climate change diseases, in particular tsutsugamushi disease.}, journal = {Osong public health and research perspectives}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {16-20}, pmid = {24159524}, issn = {2210-9099}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: As the prevalence of tsutsugamushi disease has tripled over the past decade to affect 8307 people in October 2012, this study is conducted to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid infection of tsutsugamushi disease in order to analyze the loss of value caused by climate change diseases.<br><br>METHODS: The double-bounded dichotomous choice of contingent valuation method was used to estimate the WTP to avoid infection of tsutsugamushi disease, through surveys conducted in the patient group (n = 120) and the control group (n = 240).<br><br>RESULTS: More young people in the family, higher level of awareness of risks caused by climate change, more male members (as opposed to female), higher income, lower suggested bid, and greater WTP, is better positioned to avoid infection of disease. The mean of the amount of WTP has been estimated to be 3689 Kwon per month.<br><br>CONCLUSION: As people have become increasingly aware of climate change diseases, WTP to avoid infection of tsutsugamushi disease has increased accordingly. The implicit loss of value due to climate change diseases is becoming increasingly higher. Therefore, there should be stronger and more aggressive promotional activities to prevent people from being infected with tsutsugamushi disease and to build a healthier society free from climate change diseases.}, }
@article {pmid24158763, year = {2014}, author = {Carnes, BA and Staats, D and Willcox, BJ}, title = {Impact of climate change on elder health.}, journal = {The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences}, volume = {69}, number = {9}, pages = {1087-1091}, pmid = {24158763}, issn = {1758-535X}, support = {5R01AG038707-02/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Aged/*physiology ; Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Life Expectancy ; Mortality ; United States ; Water Pollution ; }, abstract = {Demographers predict human life expectancy will continue to increase over the coming century. These forecasts are based on two critical assumptions: advances in medical technology will continue apace and the environment that sustains us will remain unchanged. The consensus of the scientific community is that human activity contributes to global climate change. That change will degrade air and water quality, and global temperature could rise 11.5°F by 2100. If nothing is done to alter this climatic trajectory, humans will be confronted by a broad spectrum of radical environmental challenges. Historically, children and the elderly adults account for most of the death toll during times of severe environmental stress. This article makes an assessment from a geriatric viewpoint of the adverse health consequences that global climate change will bring to the older segments of future populations in the United States.}, }
@article {pmid24155750, year = {2013}, author = {McKenzie, SW and Hentley, WT and Hails, RS and Jones, TH and Vanbergen, AJ and Johnson, SN}, title = {Global climate change and above- belowground insect herbivore interactions.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {412}, pmid = {24155750}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Predicted changes to the Earth's climate are likely to affect above-belowground interactions. Our understanding is limited, however, by past focus on two-species aboveground interactions mostly ignoring belowground influences. Despite their importance to ecosystem processes, there remains a dearth of empirical evidence showing how climate change will affect above-belowground interactions. The responses of above- and belowground organisms to climate change are likely to differ given the fundamentally different niches they inhabit. Yet there are few studies that address the biological and ecological reactions of belowground herbivores to environmental conditions in current and future climates. Even fewer studies investigate the consequences of climate change for above-belowground interactions between herbivores and other organisms; those that do provide no evidence of a directed response. This paper highlights the importance of considering the belowground fauna when making predictions on the effects of climate change on plant-mediated interspecific interactions.}, }
@article {pmid24154939, year = {2014}, author = {Arimi, KS}, title = {Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies used by fish farmers in Epe Local Government Area of Lagos State, Nigeria.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {94}, number = {7}, pages = {1470-1476}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.6452}, pmid = {24154939}, issn = {1097-0010}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Adaptation, Psychological ; Adult ; Animals ; *Aquaculture/economics/methods/trends ; Catfishes/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change/economics ; Developing Countries ; Disaster Planning/economics/*methods ; Educational Status ; Female ; Fishes/*growth &amp; development ; Floods/economics ; Government Programs ; Humans ; Information Seeking Behavior ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Nigeria ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Tilapia/growth &amp; development ; Workforce ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Undesirable impacts of climate change have been a common occurrence that has made fish farmers in developing countries adopt some climate-change adaptation strategies. However, little is known about determinants of climate-change adaptation strategies used by these fish farmers. This study, therefore, articulates novelties on adaptation to climate change, as well ascertains determinants of adaptation strategies used by fish farmers in Epe, Lagos State, Nigeria.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change adaptation strategies mostly used by fish farmers include frequent seeking for early warning information about climate change (76.7%) and avoidance of areas susceptible to flooding (60.0%). Climate-change adaptation strategies used by fish farmers were significantly influenced by access to early warning information (&#x3b2; = 7.21), knowledge of farmers about climate change adaptation strategies (&#x3b2; = 8.86), access to capital (&#x3b2; = 28.25), and participation in workshop and conferences (&#x3b2; = 37.19) but were reduced by number of fish stocking (&#x3b2; = -2.06).<br><br>CONCLUSION: The adaptation strategies used by fish farmers were autonomous and mostly determined by the access to credit facilities and information. Development policy should focus on carbon capture and storage technology in order to reduce adverse impacts of climate change, as well as making early warning information on climate change available to fish farmers. These will enhance adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24154850, year = {2014}, author = {Piniewski, M and Kardel, I and Giełczewski, M and Marcinkowski, P and Okruszko, T}, title = {Climate change and agricultural development: adapting Polish agriculture to reduce future nutrient loads in a coastal watershed.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {43}, number = {5}, pages = {644-660}, pmid = {24154850}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Eutrophication ; Models, Theoretical ; Poland ; Seasons ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; Water Pollution, Chemical/*analysis/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km[2]) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO3 and P-PO4 loads is an increase by 20-60 and 24-31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO4 loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO3 loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification.}, }
@article {pmid24152973, year = {2013}, author = {Baylis, M}, title = {Research gaps in understanding how climate change will affect arboviral diseases.}, journal = {Animal health research reviews}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {143-146}, doi = {10.1017/S1466252313000145}, pmid = {24152973}, issn = {1475-2654}, mesh = {Animals ; Bluetongue/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Europe/epidemiology ; Ruminants ; Sheep ; }, abstract = {Climate change is widely expected to cause the emergence and spread of vector-borne diseases, and predictive models are needed so that we can be prepared. We developed a climate-sensitive, predictive, model that describes the risk of bluetongue, an arboviral disease of ruminants, which has emerged dramatically in Europe. Developing the predictive bluetongue model led to the identification of numerous gaps in both the understanding and the availability of data. These mostly pertain to the vectors and their interaction with hosts. Closing these gaps will allow better models, with more precise predictions, to be produced. These research gaps apply to many other arboviral diseases as well. As a consequence, there needs to be an increase in research on the vectors that transmit arboviral diseases. Priorities are the training of a new generation of taxonomists, studies on the field biology of potential vectors, and increased coordination of vector surveillance and recording between countries facing similar threats.}, }
@article {pmid24152918, year = {2013}, author = {Heffernan, C}, title = {The climate change-infectious disease nexus: is it time for climate change syndemics?.}, journal = {Animal health research reviews}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {151-154}, doi = {10.1017/S1466252313000133}, pmid = {24152918}, issn = {1475-2654}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*veterinary ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Conceptualizing climate as a distinct variable limits our understanding of the synergies and interactions between climate change and the range of abiotic and biotic factors, which influence animal health. Frameworks such as eco-epidemiology and the epi-systems approach, while more holistic, view climate and climate change as one of many discreet drivers of disease. Here, I argue for a new paradigmatic framework: climate-change syndemics. Climate-change syndemics begins from the assumption that climate change is one of many potential influences on infectious disease processes, but crucially is unlikely to act independently or in isolation; and as such, it is the inter-relationship between factors that take primacy in explorations of infectious disease and climate change. Equally importantly, as climate change will impact a wide range of diseases, the frame of analysis is at the collective rather than individual level (for both human and animal infectious disease) across populations.}, }
@article {pmid24152785, year = {2013}, author = {Morgan, ER}, title = {Detail and the devil of on-farm parasite control under climate change.}, journal = {Animal health research reviews}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {138-142}, doi = {10.1017/S146625231300011X}, pmid = {24152785}, issn = {1475-2654}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/epidemiology/*parasitology ; Animal Husbandry/*methods ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Livestock/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {Levels and seasonal patterns of parasite challenge to livestock are likely to be affected by climate change, through direct effects on life cycle stages outside the definitive host and through alterations in management that affect exposure and susceptibility. Net effects and options for adapting to them will depend very strongly on details of the system under consideration. This short paper is not a comprehensive review of climate change effects on parasites, but rather seeks to identify key areas in which detail is important and arguably under-recognized in supporting farmer adaptation. I argue that useful predictions should take fuller account of system-specific properties that influence disease emergence, and not just the effects of climatic variables on parasite biology. At the same time, excessive complexity is ill-suited to useful farm-level decision support. Dealing effectively with the 'devil of detail' in this area will depend on finding the right balance, and will determine our success in applying science to climate change adaptation by farmers.}, }
@article {pmid24147282, year = {2013}, author = {Stamatakis, E and Nnoaham, K and Foster, C and Scarborough, P}, title = {The influence of global heating on discretionary physical activity: an important and overlooked consequence of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of physical activity &amp; health}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {765-768}, doi = {10.1123/jpah.10.6.765}, pmid = {24147282}, issn = {1543-5474}, support = {PDA/03/07/056/DH_/Department of Health/United Kingdom ; /BHF_/British Heart Foundation/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Body Temperature ; *Climate Change ; *Exercise ; Health Behavior ; Heating ; Humans ; *Motor Activity ; }, }
@article {pmid24146778, year = {2013}, author = {Rout, TM and McDonald-Madden, E and Martin, TG and Mitchell, NJ and Possingham, HP and Armstrong, DP}, title = {How to decide whether to move species threatened by climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {e75814}, pmid = {24146778}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/ethics ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods/*trends ; Decision Making ; Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Forecasting ; Lizards/*physiology ; *Models, Statistical ; New Zealand ; Population Dynamics ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Introducing species to areas outside their historical range to secure their future under climate change is a controversial strategy for preventing extinction. While the debate over the wisdom of this strategy continues, such introductions are already taking place. Previous frameworks for analysing the decision to introduce have lacked a quantifiable management objective and mathematically rigorous problem formulation. Here we develop the first rigorous quantitative framework for deciding whether or not a particular introduction should go ahead, which species to prioritize for introduction, and where and how to introduce them. It can also be used to compare introduction with alternative management actions, and to prioritise questions for future research. We apply the framework to a case study of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) in New Zealand. While simple and accessible, this framework can accommodate uncertainty in predictions and values. It provides essential support for the existing IUCN guidelines by presenting a quantitative process for better decision-making about conservation introductions.}, }
@article {pmid24146296, year = {2014}, author = {Kingston, E}, title = {Climate change as a three-part ethical problem: a response to Jamieson and Gardiner.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {1129-1148}, pmid = {24146296}, issn = {1471-5546}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Social Justice ; *Social Responsibility ; *Social Values ; }, abstract = {Dale Jamieson has claimed that conventional human-directed ethical concepts are an inadequate means for accurately understanding our duty to respond to climate change. Furthermore, he suggests that a responsibility to respect nature can instead provide the appropriate framework with which to understand such a duty. Stephen Gardiner has responded by claiming that climate change is a clear case of ethical responsibility, but the failure of institutions to respond to it creates a (not unprecedented) political problem. In assessing the debate between Gardiner and Jamieson, I develop an analysis which shows a three-part structure to the problem of climate change, in which the problem Gardiner identifies is only one of three sub-problems of climate change. This analysis highlights difficulties with Jamieson's argument that the duty of respect for nature is necessary for a full understanding of climate ethics, and suggests how a human-directed approach based on the three-part analysis can avoid Jamieson's charge of inadequacy.}, }
@article {pmid24142194, year = {2013}, author = {Armitage, JM and Wania, F}, title = {Exploring the potential influence of climate change and particulate organic carbon scenarios on the fate of neutral organic contaminants in the Arctic environment.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {2263-2272}, doi = {10.1039/c3em00315a}, pmid = {24142194}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollutants/*chemistry ; *Models, Theoretical ; Organic Chemicals/*chemistry ; Particulate Matter/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The main objective of this study is to explore the potential influence of climate change and particulate organic carbon scenarios on the fate of organic chemicals in the Arctic marine environment using an evaluative modeling approach. Particulate organic carbon scenarios are included to represent changes such as enhanced primary production and terrestrial inputs. Simulations are conducted for a set of hypothetical chemicals covering a wide range of partitioning property combinations using a 40-year emission scenario. Differences in model output between the default simulations (i.e. contemporary conditions) and future scenarios during the primary emission phase are limited in magnitude (typically within a factor of two), consistent with other modeling studies. The changes to particulate organic carbon levels in the Arctic Ocean assumed in the simulations exert a relatively important influence for hydrophobic organic chemicals during the primary emission phase, mitigating the potential for exposure via the pelagic food web by reducing freely-dissolved concentrations in the water column. The changes to particulate organic carbon levels are also influential in the secondary emission/depuration phase. The model results illustrate the potential importance of changes to organic carbon levels in the Arctic Ocean and support efforts to improve the understanding of organic carbon cycling and links to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24137631, year = {2013}, author = {Hannah, L and Roehrdanz, PR and Ikegami, M and Shepard, AV and Shaw, MR and Tabor, G and Zhi, L and Marquet, PA and Hijmans, RJ}, title = {Reply to van Leeuwen et al.: Planning for agricultural adaptation to climate change and its consequences for conservation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {33}, pages = {E3053}, pmid = {24137631}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Vitis/*growth &amp; development ; Wine/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid24136948, year = {2013}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Dr. Cool.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {342}, number = {6156}, pages = {307-309}, doi = {10.1126/science.342.6156.307}, pmid = {24136948}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; Earth Sciences/history/*methods ; Engineering/history/*methods ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Ozone/chemistry ; Sulfuric Acids/chemistry ; Volatilization ; }, }
@article {pmid24131418, year = {2013}, author = {Schrader, S and Shattell, M}, title = {"Cultural cognition": what mental health researchers and clinicians might learn from the climate change debate.}, journal = {Issues in mental health nursing}, volume = {34}, number = {11}, pages = {842-843}, doi = {10.3109/01612840.2013.816398}, pmid = {24131418}, issn = {1096-4673}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; Biomedical Research ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; *Cultural Competency ; Culture ; Humans ; *Psychiatric Nursing ; Risk Assessment ; Social Identification ; *Social Values ; *Transcultural Nursing ; }, }
@article {pmid24130564, year = {2013}, author = {Li, H and Wang, W and Lin, L and Zhu, X and Li, J and Zhu, X and Chen, Z}, title = {Diversification of the phaseoloid legumes: effects of climate change, range expansion and habit shift.}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {386}, pmid = {24130564}, issn = {1664-462X}, abstract = {Understanding which factors have driven the evolutionary success of a group is a fundamental question in biology. Angiosperms are the most successful group in plants and have radiated and adapted to various habitats. Among angiosperms, legumes are a good example for such successful radiation and adaptation. We here investigated how the interplay of past climate changes, geographical expansion and habit shifts has promoted diversification of the phaseoloid legumes, one of the largest clades in the Leguminosae. Using a comprehensive genus-level phylogeny from three plastid markers, we estimate divergence times, infer habit shifts, test the phylogenetic and temporal diversification heterogeneity, and reconstruct ancestral biogeographical ranges. We found that the phaseoloid lineages underwent twice dramatic accumulation. During the Late Oligocene, at least six woody clades rapidly diverged, perhaps in response to the Late Oligocene warming and aridity, and a result of rapidly exploiting new ecological opportunities in Asia, Africa and Australia. The most speciose lineage is herbaceous and began to rapidly diversify since the Early Miocene, which was likely ascribed to arid climates, along with the expansion of seasonally dry tropical forests in Africa, Asia, and America. The phaseoloid group provides an excellent case supporting the idea that the interplay of ecological opportunities and key innovations drives the evolutionary success.}, }
@article {pmid24125400, year = {2013}, author = {Sterk, A and Schijven, J and de Nijs, T and de Roda Husman, AM}, title = {Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the risk of infection by water-transmitted pathogens.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {47}, number = {22}, pages = {12648-12660}, doi = {10.1021/es403549s}, pmid = {24125400}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*microbiology ; Geologic Sediments/microbiology ; Groundwater/microbiology ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Netherlands ; Public Health ; Risk Factors ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Pollution/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to affect the infectious disease burden from exposure to pathogens in water used for drinking and recreation. Effective intervention measures require quantification of impacts of climate change on the distribution of pathogens in the environment and their potential effects on human health. Objectives of this systematic review were to summarize current knowledge available to estimate how climate change may directly and indirectly affect infection risks due to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Vibrio. Secondary objectives were to prioritize natural processes and interactions that are susceptible to climate change and to identify knowledge gaps. Search strategies were determined based on a conceptual model and scenarios with the main emphasis on The Netherlands. The literature search resulted in a large quantity of publications on climate variables affecting pathogen input and behavior in aquatic environments. However, not all processes and pathogens are evenly covered by the literature, and in many cases, the direction of change is still unclear. To make useful predictions of climate change, it is necessary to combine both negative and positive effects. This review provides an overview of the most important effects of climate change on human health and shows the importance of QMRA to quantify the net effects.}, }
@article {pmid24124489, year = {2013}, author = {Bertelsmeier, C and Guénard, B and Courchamp, F}, title = {Climate change may boost the invasion of the Asian needle ant.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {e75438}, pmid = {24124489}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Ants/*physiology ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Geography ; North America ; }, abstract = {Following its introduction from Asia to the USA, the Asian needle ant (Pachycondyla chinensis) is rapidly spreading into a wide range of habitats with great negative ecological affects. In addition, the species is a concern for human health because of its powerful, sometimes deadly, sting. Here, we assessed the potential of P. chinensis to spread further and to invade entirely new regions. We used species distribution models to assess suitable areas under current climatic conditions and in 2020, 2050 and 2080. With a consensus model, combining five different modelling techniques, three Global Circulation (climatic) Models and two CO2 emission scenarios, we generated world maps with suitable climatic conditions. Our models suggest that the species currently has a far greater potential distribution than its current exotic range, including large parts of the world landmass, including Northeast America, Southeast Asia and Southeast America. Climate change is predicted to greatly exacerbate the risk of P. chinensis invasion by increasing the suitable landmass by 64.9% worldwide, with large increases in Europe (+210.1%), Oceania (+75.1%), North America (+74.9%) and Asia (+62.7%). The results of our study suggest P. chinensis deserves increased attention, especially in the light of on-going climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24123607, year = {2014}, author = {Wu, H and Guo, Z and Guiot, J and Hatté, C and Peng, C and Yu, Y and Ge, J and Li, Q and Sun, A and Zhao, D}, title = {Elevation-induced climate change as a dominant factor causing the late Miocene C(4) plant expansion in the Himalayan foreland.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {1461-1472}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12426}, pmid = {24123607}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Atmosphere/analysis ; *Biodiversity ; Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Nepal ; Paleontology ; *Plants/metabolism ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {During the late Miocene, a dramatic global expansion of C4 plant distribution occurred with broad spatial and temporal variations. Although the event is well documented, whether subsequent expansions were caused by a decreased atmospheric CO2 concentration or climate change is a contentious issue. In this study, we used an improved inverse vegetation modeling approach that accounts for the physiological responses of C3 and C4 plants to quantitatively reconstruct the paleoclimate in the Siwalik of Nepal based on pollen and carbon isotope data. We also studied the sensitivity of the C3 and C4 plants to changes in the climate and the atmospheric CO2 concentration. We suggest that the expansion of the C4 plant distribution during the late Miocene may have been primarily triggered by regional aridification and temperature increases. The expansion was unlikely caused by reduced CO2 levels alone. Our findings suggest that this abrupt ecological shift mainly resulted from climate changes related to the decreased elevation of the Himalayan foreland.}, }
@article {pmid24123557, year = {2014}, author = {Ko, CY and Schmitz, OJ and Barbet-Massin, M and Jetz, W}, title = {Dietary guild composition and disaggregation of avian assemblages under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {790-802}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12419}, pmid = {24123557}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*classification ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to cause geographic redistributions of species. To the extent that species within assemblages have different niche requirements, assemblages may no longer remain intact and dis- and reassemble at current or new geographic locations. We explored how climate change projected by 2100 may transform the world's avian assemblages (characterized at a 110 km spatial grain) by modeling environmental niche-based changes to their dietary guild structure under 0, 500, and 2000 km-dispersal distances. We examined guild structure changes at coarse (primary, high-level, and mixed consumers) and fine (frugivores, nectarivores, insectivores, herbivores, granivores, scavengers, omnivores, and carnivores) ecological resolutions to determine whether or not geographic co-occurrence patterns among guilds were associated with the magnitude to which guilds are functionally resolved. Dietary guilds vary considerably in their global geographic prevalence, and under broad-scale niche-based redistribution of species, these are projected to change very heterogeneously. A nondispersal assumption results in the smallest projected changes to guild assemblages, but with significant losses for some regions and guilds, such as South American insectivores. Longer dispersal distances are projected to cause greater degrees of disassembly, and lead to greater homogenization of guild composition, especially in northern Asia and Africa. This arises because projected range gains and losses result in geographically heterogeneous patterns of guild compensation. Projected decreases especially of primary and mixed consumers most often are compensated by increases in high-level consumers, with increasing uncertainty about these outcomes as dispersal distance and degree of guild functional resolution increase. Further exploration into the consequences of these significant broad-scale ecological functional changes at the community or ecosystem level should be increasingly on the agenda for conservation science.}, }
@article {pmid24123496, year = {2013}, author = {García, R and Holmer, M and Duarte, CM and Marbà, N}, title = {Global warming enhances sulphide stress in a key seagrass species (NW Mediterranean).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {3629-3639}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12377}, pmid = {24123496}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Alismatales/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Environment ; *Global Warming ; Mass Spectrometry ; Mediterranean Sea ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Seawater/chemistry ; Spain ; Stress, Physiological/*physiology ; Sulfides/*metabolism ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The build-up of sulphide concentrations in sediments, resulting from high inputs of organic matter and the mineralization through sulphate reduction, can be lethal to the benthos. Sulphate reduction is temperature dependent, thus global warming may contribute to even higher sulphide concentrations and benthos mortality. The seagrass Posidonia oceanica is very sensitive to sulphide stress. Hence, if concentrations build up with global warming, this key Mediterranean species could be seriously endangered. An 8-year monitoring of daily seawater temperature, the sulphur isotopic signatures of water (δ(34)S(water)), sediment (δ(34)SCRS) and P. oceanica leaf tissue (δ(34)S(leaves)), along with total sulphur in leaves (TS(leaves)) and annual net population growth along the coast of the Balearic archipelago (Western Mediterranean) allowed us to determine if warming triggers P. oceanica sulphide stress and constrains seagrass survival. From the isotopic S signatures, we estimated sulphide intrusion into the leaves (F(sulphide)) and sulphur incorporation into the leaves from sedimentary sulphides (SS(leaves)). We observed lower δ(34)S(leaves), higher F(sulphide) and SS(leaves) coinciding with a 6-year period when two heat waves were recorded. Warming triggered sulphide stress as evidenced by the negative temperature dependence of δ(34)S(leaves) and the positive one of F(sulphide), TS(leaves) and SS(leaves). Lower P. oceanica net population growth rates were directly related to higher contents of TS(leaves). At equivalent annual maximum sea surface water temperature (SST(max)), deep meadows were less affected by sulphide intrusion than shallow ones. Thus, water depth acts as a protecting mechanism against sulphide intrusion. However, water depth would be insufficient to buffer seagrass sulphide stress triggered by Mediterranean seawater summer temperatures projected for the end of the 21st century even under scenarios of moderate greenhouse gas emissions, A1B. Mediterranean warming, therefore, is expected to enhance P. oceanica sulphide stress, and thus compromise the survival of this key habitat along its entire depth distribution range.}, }
@article {pmid24122098, year = {2014}, author = {Sherwood, ET and Greening, HS}, title = {Potential impacts and management implications of climate change on Tampa Bay estuary critical coastal habitats.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {53}, number = {2}, pages = {401-415}, pmid = {24122098}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Estuaries ; Florida ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The Tampa Bay estuary is a unique and valued ecosystem that currently thrives between subtropical and temperate climates along Florida's west-central coast. The watershed is considered urbanized (42 % lands developed); however, a suite of critical coastal habitats still persists. Current management efforts are focused toward restoring the historic balance of these habitat types to a benchmark 1950s period. We have modeled the anticipated changes to a suite of habitats within the Tampa Bay estuary using the sea level affecting marshes model under various sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Modeled changes to the distribution and coverage of mangrove habitats within the estuary are expected to dominate the overall proportions of future critical coastal habitats. Modeled losses in salt marsh, salt barren, and coastal freshwater wetlands by 2100 will significantly affect the progress achieved in "Restoring the Balance" of these habitat types over recent periods. Future land management and acquisition priorities within the Tampa Bay estuary should consider the impending effects of both continued urbanization within the watershed and climate change. This requires the recognition that: (1) the Tampa Bay estuary is trending towards a mangrove-dominated system; (2) the current management paradigm of "Restoring the Balance" may no longer provide realistic, attainable goals; (3) restoration that creates habitat mosaics will prove more resilient in the future; and (4) establishing subtidal and upslope "refugia" may be a future strategy in this urbanized estuary to allow sensitive habitat types (e.g., seagrass and salt barren) to persist under anticipated climate change and SLR impacts.}, }
@article {pmid24122097, year = {2014}, author = {March, H and Saurí, D and Olcina, J}, title = {Rising temperatures and dwindling water supplies? Perception of climate change among residents of the Spanish Mediterranean tourist coastal areas.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, pages = {181-193}, pmid = {24122097}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Adult ; Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Mediterranean Sea ; Public Opinion ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Spain ; Temperature ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {In this article, we discuss the results of a survey on the perception of climate change in the 14 "tourist zones" (as defined by the Spanish Statistical Institute, INE) that stretch from the French border to Gibraltar alongside the Spanish Mediterranean coast, including the Balearic Islands. Our sample consisted of 1,014 telephone interviews stratified according to the number of tourists staying in each zone. Respondents showed concern for the likely impacts of climate change on jobs and thought that climate change would reduce the economic activity of their areas. Responses were also pessimistic regarding future water availability but agreed with the development of alternative sources such as desalination and water re-use. Household size, educational levels, and employment tended to be the most significant statistical explanatory factors regarding attitudes toward climate change. Respondents in larger households (a variable not tested in the literature as far as we know), respondents with higher education, and respondents working for a wage tended to express more concerns than the rest.}, }
@article {pmid24119205, year = {2013}, author = {Munday, PL and Warner, RR and Monro, K and Pandolfi, JM and Marshall, DJ}, title = {Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16}, number = {12}, pages = {1488-1500}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12185}, pmid = {24119205}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*genetics ; Aquatic Organisms/*genetics/physiology ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Oceans and Seas ; Phenotype ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {An increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24118611, year = {2014}, author = {Gehring, C and Flores-Rentería, D and Sthultz, CM and Leonard, TM and Flores-Rentería, L and Whipple, AV and Whitham, TG}, title = {Plant genetics and interspecific competitive interactions determine ectomycorrhizal fungal community responses to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {1379-1391}, doi = {10.1111/mec.12503}, pmid = {24118611}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Fungal/genetics ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Gene-Environment Interaction ; Herbivory ; *Insecta ; *Microbiota ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Mycorrhizae/*physiology ; Pinus/*genetics/*microbiology ; Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Although the importance of plant-associated microbes is increasingly recognized, little is known about the biotic and abiotic factors that determine the composition of that microbiome. We examined the influence of plant genetic variation, and two stressors, one biotic and one abiotic, on the ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal community of a dominant tree species, Pinus edulis. During three periods across 16 years that varied in drought severity, we sampled the EM fungal communities of a wild stand of P. edulis in which genetically based resistance and susceptibility to insect herbivory was linked with drought tolerance and the abundance of competing shrubs. We found that the EM fungal communities of insect-susceptible trees remained relatively constant as climate dried, while those of insect-resistant trees shifted significantly, providing evidence of a genotype by environment interaction. Shrub removal altered the EM fungal communities of insect-resistant trees, but not insect-susceptible trees, also a genotype by environment interaction. The change in the EM fungal community of insect-resistant trees following shrub removal was associated with greater shoot growth, evidence of competitive release. However, shrub removal had a 7-fold greater positive effect on the shoot growth of insect-susceptible trees than insect-resistant trees when shrub density was taken into account. Insect-susceptible trees had higher growth than insect-resistant trees, consistent with the hypothesis that the EM fungi associated with susceptible trees were superior mutualists. These complex, genetic-based interactions among species (tree-shrub-herbivore-fungus) argue that the ultimate impacts of climate change are both ecological and evolutionary.}, }
@article {pmid24117805, year = {2013}, author = {Lee, H and Mishurov, M}, title = {Scaling climate change experiments across space and time.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {200}, number = {3}, pages = {595-597}, doi = {10.1111/nph.12543}, pmid = {24117805}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid24117758, year = {2014}, author = {Klein, T and Yakir, D and Buchmann, N and Grünzweig, JM}, title = {Towards an advanced assessment of the hydrological vulnerability of forests to climate change-induced drought.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {201}, number = {3}, pages = {712-716}, doi = {10.1111/nph.12548}, pmid = {24117758}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Soil ; Trees/*physiology ; *Water ; }, }
@article {pmid24115565, year = {2014}, author = {Pittelkow, CM and Adviento-Borbe, MA and van Kessel, C and Hill, JE and Linquist, BA}, title = {Optimizing rice yields while minimizing yield-scaled global warming potential.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {1382-1393}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12413}, pmid = {24115565}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture/*trends ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Gases/analysis ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/metabolism ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Nitrous Oxide/metabolism ; Oryza/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {To meet growing global food demand with limited land and reduced environmental impact, agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasingly evaluated with respect to crop productivity, i.e., on a yield-scaled as opposed to area basis. Here, we compiled available field data on CH4 and N2 O emissions from rice production systems to test the hypothesis that in response to fertilizer nitrogen (N) addition, yield-scaled global warming potential (GWP) will be minimized at N rates that maximize yields. Within each study, yield N surplus was calculated to estimate deficit or excess N application rates with respect to the optimal N rate (defined as the N rate at which maximum yield was achieved). Relationships between yield N surplus and GHG emissions were assessed using linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models. Results indicate that yields increased in response to increasing N surplus when moving from deficit to optimal N rates. At N rates contributing to a yield N surplus, N2 O and yield-scaled N2 O emissions increased exponentially. In contrast, CH4 emissions were not impacted by N inputs. Accordingly, yield-scaled CH4 emissions decreased with N addition. Overall, yield-scaled GWP was minimized at optimal N rates, decreasing by 21% compared to treatments without N addition. These results are unique compared to aerobic cropping systems in which N2 O emissions are the primary contributor to GWP, meaning yield-scaled GWP may not necessarily decrease for aerobic crops when yields are optimized by N fertilizer addition. Balancing gains in agricultural productivity with climate change concerns, this work supports the concept that high rice yields can be achieved with minimal yield-scaled GWP through optimal N application rates. Moreover, additional improvements in N use efficiency may further reduce yield-scaled GWP, thereby strengthening the economic and environmental sustainability of rice systems.}, }
@article {pmid24115520, year = {2014}, author = {Ruane, AC and McDermid, S and Rosenzweig, C and Baigorria, GA and Jones, JW and Romero, CC and Dewayne Cecil, L}, title = {Carbon-temperature-water change analysis for peanut production under climate change: a prototype for the AgMIP coordinated climate-crop modeling project (C3MP).}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {394-407}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12412}, pmid = {24115520}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Alabama ; Arachis/*growth &amp; development ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Models, Biological ; Temperature ; Water/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2 ]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2 ], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.}, }
@article {pmid24115364, year = {2014}, author = {Frei, ER and Ghazoul, J and Matter, P and Heggli, M and Pluess, AR}, title = {Plant population differentiation and climate change: responses of grassland species along an elevational gradient.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {441-455}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12403}, pmid = {24115364}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Altitude ; *Climate ; Climate Change ; Poaceae/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Ranunculus/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Soil/*chemistry ; Switzerland ; Trifolium/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Mountain ecosystems are particularly susceptible to climate change. Characterizing intraspecific variation of alpine plants along elevational gradients is crucial for estimating their vulnerability to predicted changes. Environmental conditions vary with elevation, which might influence plastic responses and affect selection pressures that lead to local adaptation. Thus, local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity among low and high elevation plant populations in response to climate, soil and other factors associated with elevational gradients might underlie different responses of these populations to climate warming. Using a transplant experiment along an elevational gradient, we investigated reproductive phenology, growth and reproduction of the nutrient-poor grassland species Ranunculus bulbosus, Trifolium montanum and Briza media. Seeds were collected from low and high elevation source populations across the Swiss Alps and grown in nine common gardens at three different elevations with two different soil depths. Despite genetic differentiation in some traits, the results revealed no indication of local adaptation to the elevation of population origin. Reproductive phenology was advanced at lower elevation in low and high elevation populations of all three species. Growth and reproduction of T. montanum and B. media were hardly affected by garden elevation and soil depth. In R. bulbosus, however, growth decreased and reproductive investment increased at higher elevation. Furthermore, soil depth influenced growth and reproduction of low elevation R. bulbosus populations. We found no evidence for local adaptation to elevation of origin and hardly any differences in the responses of low and high elevation populations. However, the consistent advanced reproductive phenology observed in all three species shows that they have the potential to plastically respond to environmental variation. We conclude that populations might not be forced to migrate to higher elevations as a consequence of climate warming, as plasticity will buffer the detrimental effects of climate change in the three investigated nutrient-poor grassland species.}, }
@article {pmid24112655, year = {2013}, author = {Kong, D and MacLeod, M and Li, Z and Cousins, IT}, title = {Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {93}, number = {9}, pages = {2086-2093}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2013.07.049}, pmid = {24112655}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Environmental Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Models, Chemical ; *Models, Statistical ; Polychlorinated Biphenyls/*analysis ; Risk Assessment ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid24111855, year = {2014}, author = {Anderson, B and Borgonovo, E and Galeotti, M and Roson, R}, title = {Uncertainty in climate change modeling: can global sensitivity analysis be of help?.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {34}, number = {2}, pages = {271-293}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12117}, pmid = {24111855}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Models, Theoretical ; Monte Carlo Method ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Integrated assessment models offer a crucial support to decisionmakers in climate policy making. For a full understanding and corroboration of model results, analysts ought to identify the exogenous variables that influence the model results the most (key drivers), appraise the relevance of interactions, and the direction of change associated with the simultaneous variation of uncertain variables. We show that such information can be directly extracted from the data set produced by Monte Carlo simulations. Our discussion is guided by the application to the well-known DICE model of William Nordhaus. The proposed methodology allows analysts to draw robust insights into the dependence of future atmospheric temperature, global emissions, and carbon costs and taxes on the model's exogenous variables.}, }
@article {pmid24108169, year = {2013}, author = {Costello, A and Montgomery, H and Watts, N}, title = {Climate change: the challenge for healthcare professionals.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {347}, number = {}, pages = {f6060}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.f6060}, pmid = {24108169}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; Professional Role ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid24108046, year = {2013}, author = {Huntingford, C and Mercado, L and Post, E}, title = {Earth science: The timing of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {502}, number = {7470}, pages = {174-175}, pmid = {24108046}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Computer Simulation ; *Global Warming ; }, }
@article {pmid24107529, year = {2013}, author = {Rühland, KM and Paterson, AM and Keller, W and Michelutti, N and Smol, JP}, title = {Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {280}, number = {1772}, pages = {20131887}, pmid = {24107529}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Biota ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Diatoms/classification/isolation &amp; purification/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Lakes ; Limnology ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Ontario ; }, abstract = {We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth's last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region's freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region's extensive peatlands, the world's southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance.}, }
@article {pmid24106561, year = {2013}, author = {Williams, MN and Hill, SR and Spicer, J}, title = {In response to "temperature and violent crime in dallas, Texas: relationships and implications of climate change".}, journal = {The western journal of emergency medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {567}, pmid = {24106561}, issn = {1936-900X}, }
@article {pmid24102137, year = {2013}, author = {Herrando-Pérez, S}, title = {Climate change heats matrix population models.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {82}, number = {6}, pages = {1117-1119}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12146}, pmid = {24102137}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecology ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Metabolic theory predicts that demographic rates can be expressed as a function of environmental temperature. Amarasekare &amp; Coutinho (2013) build a novel matrix model where demographic rates (fertility, mortality, development) vary according to expected rates of climate warming. They challenge recent studies that claim low population viability of tropical species based on rmax estimated from the Euler-Lotka equation, because the latter assumes a constant stage distribution that is unrealistic under fast rates of warming and for organisms with long development. In those cases, the measurement of the temperature responses of life-history traits could be based in niche theory.}, }
@article {pmid24101989, year = {2013}, author = {Louise Allan, E and William Froneman, P and Durgadoo, JV and McQuaid, CD and Ansorge, IJ and Richoux, NB}, title = {Critical indirect effects of climate change on sub-Antarctic ecosystem functioning.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {2994-3004}, pmid = {24101989}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Sub-Antarctic islands represent critical breeding habitats for land-based top predators that dominate Southern Ocean food webs. Reproduction and molting incur high energetic demands that are sustained at the sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands (PEIs) by both inshore (phytoplankton blooms; "island mass effect"; autochthonous) and offshore (allochthonous) productivity. As the relative contributions of these sustenance pathways are, in turn, affected by oceanographic conditions around the PEIs, we address the consequences of climatically driven changes in the physical environment on this island ecosystem. We show that there has been a measurable long-term shift in the carbon isotope signatures of the benthos inhabiting the shallow shelf region of the PEIs, most likely reflecting a long-term decline in enhanced phytoplankton productivity at the islands in response to a climate-driven shift in the position of the sub-Antarctic Front. Our results indicate that regional climate change has affected the balance between allochthonous and autochthonous productivity at the PEIs. Over the last three decades, inshore-feeding top predators at the islands have shown a marked decrease in their population sizes. Conversely, population sizes of offshore-feeding predators that forage over great distances from the islands have remained stable or increased, with one exception. Population decline of predators that rely heavily on organisms inhabiting the inshore region strongly suggest changes in prey availability, which are likely driven by factors such as fisheries impacts on some prey populations and shifts in competitive interactions among predators. In addition to these local factors, our analysis indicates that changes in prey availability may also result indirectly through regional climate change effects on the islands' marine ecosystem. Most importantly, our results indicate that a fundamental shift in the balance between allochthonous and autochthonous trophic pathways within this island ecosystem may be detected throughout the food web, demonstrating that the most powerful effects of climate change on marine systems may be indirect.}, }
@article {pmid24101985, year = {2013}, author = {Robinet, C and Rousselet, J and Pineau, P and Miard, F and Roques, A}, title = {Are heat waves susceptible to mitigate the expansion of a species progressing with global warming?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {2947-2957}, pmid = {24101985}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {A number of organisms, especially insects, are extending their range in response of the increasing trend of warmer temperatures. However, the effects of more frequent climatic anomalies on these species are not clearly known. The pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, is a forest pest that is currently extending its geographical distribution in Europe in response to climate warming. However, its population density largely decreased in its northern expansion range (near Paris, France) the year following the 2003 heat wave. In this study, we tested whether the 2003 heat wave could have killed a large part of egg masses. First, the local heat wave intensity was determined. Then, an outdoor experiment was conducted to measure the deviation between the temperatures recorded by weather stations and those observed within sun-exposed egg masses. A second experiment was conducted under laboratory conditions to simulate heat wave conditions (with night/day temperatures of 20/32°C and 20/40°C compared to the control treatment 13/20°C) and measure the potential effects of this heat wave on egg masses. No effects were noticed on egg development. Then, larvae hatched from these egg masses were reared under mild conditions until the third instar and no delayed effects on the development of larvae were found. Instead of eggs, the 2003 heat wave had probably affected directly or indirectly the young larvae that were already hatched when it occurred. Our results suggest that the effects of extreme climatic anomalies occurring over narrow time windows are difficult to determine because they strongly depend on the life stage of the species exposed to these anomalies. However, these effects could potentially reduce or enhance the average warming effects. As extreme weather conditions are predicted to become more frequent in the future, it is necessary to disentangle the effects of the warming trend from the effects of climatic anomalies when predicting the response of a species to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24101983, year = {2013}, author = {Imbach, PA and Locatelli, B and Molina, LG and Ciais, P and Leadley, PW}, title = {Climate change and plant dispersal along corridors in fragmented landscapes of Mesoamerica.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {2917-2932}, pmid = {24101983}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change is a threat to biodiversity, and adaptation measures should be considered in biodiversity conservation planning. Protected areas (PA) are expected to be impacted by climate change and improving their connectivity with biological corridors (BC) has been proposed as a potential adaptation measure, although assessing its effectiveness remains a challenge. In Mesoamerica, efforts to preserve the biodiversity have led to the creation of a regional network of PA and, more recently, BC. This study evaluates the role of BC for facilitating plant dispersal between PA under climate change in Mesoamerica. A spatially explicit dynamic model (cellular automaton) was developed to simulate species dispersal under different climate and conservation policy scenarios. Plant functional types (PFT) were defined based on a range of dispersal rates and vegetation types to represent the diversity of species in the region. The impacts of climate change on PA and the role of BC for dispersal were assessed spatially. Results show that most impacted PA are those with low altitudinal range in hot, dry, or high latitude areas. PA with low altitudinal range in high cool areas benefit the most from corridors. The most important corridors cover larger areas and have high altitude gradients. Only the fastest PFT can keep up with the expected change in climate and benefit from corridors for dispersal. We conclude that the spatial assessment of the vulnerability of PA and the role of corridors in facilitating dispersal can help conservation planning under a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid24099214, year = {2013}, author = {Boyages, CS}, title = {Australian Medical Students' Association Global Health Essay Competition - Global climate change, geo-engineering and human health.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {199}, number = {7}, pages = {501-502}, doi = {10.5694/mja13.10572}, pmid = {24099214}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environment ; *Global Health ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Rio+20's proposed Sustainable Development Goals have the potential to redefine the course of international action on climate change. They recognise that environmental health is inextricably linked with human health, and that environmental sustainability is of paramount importance in safeguarding global health. Competition entrants were asked to discuss ways of making global health a central component of international sustainable development initiatives and environmental policy, using one or two concrete examples}, }
@article {pmid24098056, year = {2013}, author = {Dunlap, RE and Jacques, PJ}, title = {Climate Change Denial Books and Conservative Think Tanks: Exploring the Connection.}, journal = {The American behavioral scientist}, volume = {57}, number = {6}, pages = {699-731}, pmid = {24098056}, issn = {0002-7642}, abstract = {The conservative movement and especially its think tanks play a critical role in denying the reality and significance of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), especially by manufacturing uncertainty over climate science. Books denying AGW are a crucial means of attacking climate science and scientists, and we examine the links between conservative think tanks (CTTs) and 108 climate change denial books published through 2010. We find a strong link, albeit noticeably weaker for the growing number of self-published denial books. We also examine the national origins of the books and the academic backgrounds of their authors or editors, finding that with the help of American CTTs climate change denial has spread to several other nations and that an increasing portion of denial books are produced by individuals with no scientific training. It appears that at least 90% of denial books do not undergo peer review, allowing authors or editors to recycle scientifically unfounded claims that are then amplified by the conservative movement, media, and political elites.}, }
@article {pmid24090551, year = {2013}, author = {Pranovi, F and Caccin, A and Franzoi, P and Malavasi, S and Zucchetta, M and Torricelli, P}, title = {Vulnerability of artisanal fisheries to climate change in the Venice Lagoon.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {83}, number = {4}, pages = {847-864}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.12124}, pmid = {24090551}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Fishes ; *Global Warming ; Introduced Species ; Italy ; Mediterranean Sea ; }, abstract = {Within the context of global warming, the western coast of the northern Adriatic Sea can be regarded as an extremely vulnerable area. Owing to the local geographic features, this area has been described as the Venetian lacuna, where Mediterranean Sea climatic conditions are replaced by Atlantic Ocean ones, supporting the presence of glacial relicts, such as sprat Sprattus sprattus, flounder Platichthys flesus and brown shrimp Crangon crangon. Nektonic assemblage therefore represents a good candidate in terms of an early proxy for thermal regime alterations. It represents a dynamic component of the lagoon ecosystem, changing in space and time, actively moving through the entire system, and dynamically exchanging with the open sea. Here, the first signals of the change have been already detected, such as the presence of alien thermophilic species. Within this context, since the beginning of the century, sampling of the nektonic assemblage has been carried out, integrating them with landings data from the fish market. Vulnerabilities to thermal regime changes have been tested by (1) categorizing species according to the mean distribution area in terms of latitudinal range (over 45°, 30°-45° and below 30°), and (2) analysing both spatial and temporal variations within fishing grounds. Results indicated a high potential vulnerability of the artisanal fishery to climate change, as the commercial catch is entirely composed of species from cold (>45° N) and temperate (between 45° and 30° N) latitudes. At present no alien thermophilic species have been recorded within the lagoon, which is possibly a sign of good resilience of the assemblage. Finally, abundance of species from cold latitudes has decreased during the past decade. All of this has been discussed in the context of the mean annual temperature trend.}, }
@article {pmid24079521, year = {2013}, author = {Papadimitriou, VC and McGillen, MR and Smith, SC and Jubb, AM and Portmann, RW and Hall, BD and Fleming, EL and Jackman, CH and Burkholder, JB}, title = {1,2-Dichlorohexafluoro-cyclobutane (1,2-c-C4F6Cl2, R-316c) a potent ozone depleting substance and greenhouse gas: atmospheric loss processes, lifetimes, and ozone depletion and global warming potentials for the (E) and (Z) stereoisomers.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {117}, number = {43}, pages = {11049-11065}, doi = {10.1021/jp407823k}, pmid = {24079521}, issn = {1520-5215}, abstract = {The atmospheric processing of (E)- and (Z)-1,2-dichlorohexafluoro-cyclobutane (1,2-c-C4F6Cl2, R-316c) was examined in this work as the ozone depleting (ODP) and global warming (GWP) potentials of this proposed replacement compound are presently unknown. The predominant atmospheric loss processes and infrared absorption spectra of the R-316c isomers were measured to provide a basis to evaluate their atmospheric lifetimes and, thus, ODPs and GWPs. UV absorption spectra were measured between 184.95 to 230 nm at temperatures between 214 and 296 K and a parametrization for use in atmospheric modeling is presented. The Cl atom quantum yield in the 193 nm photolysis of R-316c was measured to be 1.90 ± 0.27. Hexafluorocyclobutene (c-C4F6) was determined to be a photolysis co-product with molar yields of 0.7 and 1.0 (±10%) for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c, respectively. The 296 K total rate coefficient for the O((1)D) + R-316c reaction, i.e., O((1)D) loss, was measured to be (1.56 ± 0.11) × 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and the reactive rate coefficient, i.e., R-316c loss, was measured to be (1.36 ± 0.20) × 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) corresponding to a ~88% reactive yield. Rate coefficient upper-limits for the OH and O3 reaction with R-316c were determined to be <2.3 × 10(-17) and <2.0 × 10(-22) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1), respectively, at 296 K. The quoted uncertainty limits are 2σ and include estimated systematic errors. Local and global annually averaged lifetimes for the (E)- and (Z)-R-316c isomers were calculated using a 2-D atmospheric model to be 74.6 ± 3 and 114.1 ± 10 years, respectively, where the estimated uncertainties are due solely to the uncertainty in the UV absorption spectra. Stratospheric photolysis is the predominant atmospheric loss process for both isomers with the O((1)D) reaction making a minor, ~2% for the (E) isomer and 7% for the (Z) isomer, contribution to the total atmospheric loss. Ozone depletion potentials for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c were calculated using the 2-D model to be 0.46 and 0.54, respectively. Infrared absorption spectra for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c were measured at 296 K and used to estimate their radiative efficiencies (REs) and GWPs; 100-year time-horizon GWPs of 4160 and 5400 were obtained for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c, respectively. Both isomers of R-316c are shown in this work to be long-lived ozone depleting substances and potent greenhouse gases.}, }
@article {pmid24079258, year = {2013}, author = {Peng, HS and Hao, JD and Huang, LQ}, title = {[Effect of climate change on genuine medicinal materials producing areas during last 2 000 years--Alisma orientale and Citrus aurtantium as examples].}, journal = {Zhongguo Zhong yao za zhi = Zhongguo zhongyao zazhi = China journal of Chinese materia medica}, volume = {38}, number = {13}, pages = {2218-2222}, pmid = {24079258}, issn = {1001-5302}, mesh = {Alisma/*growth &amp; development ; Citrus/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate in China has fluctuated greatly for last two thousand years. Also, the temperate-subtropical transition zone, as well as the distribution boundaries of subtropical biology and growth of suitable areas appear north-south lapse. In historical period, significant climate change will also be bound to the changes of the medicinal organism distribution suitable areas. The past dynasties herbal herbs have documented origin in detail, especially genuine medicinal materials producing areas. In this paper, Alisma orientale and Citrus aurtantium as examples, were used to elaborate the impact of climate change fluctuations on genuine producing area by evolution and change of genuine producing areas. The results showed that medicinal species were more sensitive to climate change such as A. orientale and C. aurtantium, its main producing areas or genuine producing area from north to south shifted in the Ming and Qing dynasties, consistent with the characteristics of climate change in China in last two thousand years. Factors prompted producing areas southward are not only low temperature and cold damage, and temperature and humidity have often synergistic effect. The human activities are more likely to exacerbate the impact.}, }
@article {pmid24078730, year = {2013}, author = {Hawkes, N}, title = {Scientists say they are 95% certain that humanity is responsible for climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {347}, number = {}, pages = {f5888}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.f5888}, pmid = {24078730}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Humans ; Probability ; }, }
@article {pmid24074544, year = {2014}, author = {Augustaitis, A and Bytnerowicz, A and Paoletti, E}, title = {Biological reactions of forests to climate change and air pollution.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {184}, number = {}, pages = {657-658}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2013.09.004}, pmid = {24074544}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Trees/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid24072646, year = {2013}, author = {North, GR}, title = {More evidence for anthropogenic influence on climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {43}, pages = {17169-17170}, pmid = {24072646}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Climate ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid24069764, year = {2013}, author = {Rovin, K and Hardee, K and Kidanu, A}, title = {Linking population, fertility, and family planning with adaptation to climate change: perspectives from Ethiopia.}, journal = {African journal of reproductive health}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {15-29}, pmid = {24069764}, issn = {1118-4841}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Ethiopia ; *Family Planning Services/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Focus Groups ; Humans ; Population Growth ; Qualitative Research ; Resilience, Psychological ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is felt disproportionately in the world's most economically disadvantaged countries. As adaption to an evolving climate becomes increasingly salient on national and global scales, it is important to assess how people at the local-level are already coping with changes. Understanding local responses to climate change is essential for helping countries to construct strategies to bolster resilience to current and future effects. This qualitative research investigated responses to climate change in Ethiopia; specifically, how communities react to and cope with climate variation, which groups are most vulnerable, and the role of family planning in increasing resilience. Participants were highly aware of changing climate effects, impacts of rapid population growth, and the need for increased access to voluntary family planning. Identification of family planning as an important adaptation strategy supports the inclusion of rights-based voluntary family planning and reproductive health into local and national climate change adaptation plans.}, }
@article {pmid24069763, year = {2013}, author = {Potts, M and Graves, A}, title = {Big issues deserve bold responses: population and climate change in the Sahel.}, journal = {African journal of reproductive health}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {9-14}, pmid = {24069763}, issn = {1118-4841}, mesh = {Ethiopia ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; }, }
@article {pmid24069478, year = {2013}, author = {Moo-Llanes, D and Ibarra-Cerdeña, CN and Rebollar-Téllez, EA and Ibáñez-Bernal, S and González, C and Ramsey, JM}, title = {Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {e2421}, pmid = {24069478}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Animals ; Central America ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Humans ; *Insect Vectors ; North America ; *Phylogeography ; Psychodidae/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.}, }
@article {pmid24069425, year = {2013}, author = {Hu, J and Hopping, KA and Bump, JK and Kang, S and Klein, JA}, title = {Climate change and water use partitioning by different plant functional groups in a grassland on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {e75503}, pmid = {24069425}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Isotopes/chemistry ; Plants/*chemistry ; Seasons ; Soil/chemistry ; Temperature ; Tibet ; Water/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is predicted to experience increases in air temperature, increases in snowfall, and decreases in monsoon rains; however, there is currently a paucity of data that examine the ecological responses to such climate changes. In this study, we examined the effects of increased air temperature and snowfall on: 1) water use partitioning by different plant functional groups, and 2) ecosystem CO2 fluxes throughout the growing season. At the individual plant scale, we used stable hydrogen isotopes (δD) to partition water use between shallow- and deep-rooted species. Prior to the arrival of summer precipitation (typically mid-July), snowmelt was the main water source in the soils. During this time, shallow and deep-rooted species partitioned water use by accessing water from shallow and deep soils, respectively. However, once the monsoon rains arrived, all plants used rainwater from the upper soils as the main water source. Snow addition did not result in increased snowmelt use throughout the growing season; instead, snowmelt water was pushed down into deeper soils when the rains arrived. At the larger plot scale, CO2 flux measurements demonstrated that rain was the main driver for net ecosystem productivity (NEP). NEP rates were low during June and July and reached a maximum during the monsoon season in August. Warming decreased NEP through a reduction in gross primary productivity (GPP), and snow additions did not mitigate the negative effects of warming by increasing NEP or GPP. Both the isotope and CO2 flux results suggest that rain drives productivity in the Nam Tso region on the TP. This also suggests that the effects of warming-induced drought on the TP may not be mitigated by increased snowfall. Further decreases in summer monsoon rains may affect ecosystem productivity, with large implications for livestock-based livelihoods.}, }
@article {pmid24067445, year = {2013}, author = {Randolph, SE}, title = {Is expert opinion enough? A critical assessment of the evidence for potential impacts of climate change on tick-borne diseases.}, journal = {Animal health research reviews}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {133-137}, doi = {10.1017/S1466252313000091}, pmid = {24067445}, issn = {1475-2654}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Expert Testimony ; Humans ; Public Health ; Tick-Borne Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; Ticks/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Before attributing cause and consequence to climate change, the precise patterns of change must be known. Ground records across much of Europe show a 1-2 °C rise in temperatures in 1989 with no significant rise since then. The timing and spatial uniformity of this pattern, relative to changes in the distribution and incidence of many vector-borne diseases, are sufficient to falsify most simple claims that climate change is the principal cause of disease emergence. Furthermore, age-specific increases in incidence indicate causes other than, or in addition to, climate change. Unfortunately, many public health professionals repeat the received wisdom that climate change is worsening the burden of indirectly transmitted infections; this 'expert opinion' soon becomes consensus dogma divorced from quantitative evidence. The pressing need is to gather appropriate data to test the simple concept that the composition and relative importance of disparate multifactorial factors, commonly integrated within a causal nexus, will inevitably vary with the geographical, cultural, socio-economical, wildlife, etc. context. The greatest impact of warming occurs at the geographical limits of current distributions, where low temperatures limit the hazard of infected vectors. Within core endemic regions, changing exposure of humans to this hazard, through changing socio-economic factors is evidently more important amongst both the poor and the wealthy.}, }
@article {pmid24066555, year = {2013}, author = {Jiang, PH and Zhao, RF and Zhao, HL and Lu, LP and Xie, ZL}, title = {[Relationships of wetland landscape fragmentation with climate change in middle reaches of Heihe River, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {1661-1668}, pmid = {24066555}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Geographic Information Systems ; Models, Theoretical ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Rivers ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1975-2010 multi-temporal remotely sensed TM and ETM images and meteorological data, in combining with wavelet analysis, trend surface simulation, and interpolation method, this paper analyzed the meteorological elements' spatial distribution and change characteristics in the middle reaches of Heihe River, and elucidated the process of wetland landscape fragmentation in the study area by using the landscape indices patch density (PD), mean patch size (MPS), and patch shape fragment index (FS). The relationships between the wetland landscape fragmentation and climate change were also approached through correlation analysis and multiple stepwise regression analysis. In 1975-2010, the overall distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature in the study area were low precipitation in high temperature regions and high precipitation in low temperature regions, and the main characteristics of climate change were the conversion from dry to wet and from cold to warm. In the whole study period, the wetland landscape fragmentation was mainly manifested in the decrease of MPS, with a decrement of 48.95 hm2, and the increase of PD, with an increment of 0.006 ind x hm(-2).}, }
@article {pmid24066162, year = {2013}, author = {Maiorano, L and Amori, G and Capula, M and Falcucci, A and Masi, M and Montemaggiori, A and Pottier, J and Psomas, A and Rondinini, C and Russo, D and Zimmermann, NE and Boitani, L and Guisan, A}, title = {Threats from climate change to terrestrial vertebrate hotspots in Europe.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {e74989}, pmid = {24066162}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Models, Theoretical ; Vertebrates/*physiology ; }, abstract = {We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21(st) century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran's I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation.}, }
@article {pmid24066059, year = {2013}, author = {Van der Fels-Klerx, HJ and van Asselt, ED and Madsen, MS and Olesen, JE}, title = {Impact of climate change effects on contamination of cereal grains with deoxynivalenol.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {e73602}, pmid = {24066059}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Netherlands ; Trichothecenes/*metabolism ; Triticum/*metabolism ; Zea mays/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling was applied, considering both direct effects of changing climate on toxin contamination and indirect effects via shifts in crop phenology. Climate change projections for the IPCC A1B emission scenario were used for the scenario period 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. Climatic data from two different global and regional climate model combinations were used. A weather generator was applied for downscaling climate data to local conditions. Crop phenology models and prediction models for DON contamination used, each for winter wheat and grain maize. Results showed that flowering and full maturity of both wheat and maize will advance with future climate. Flowering advanced on average 5 and 11 days for wheat, and 7 and 14 days for maize (two climate model combinations). Full maturity was on average 10 and 17 days earlier for wheat, and 19 and 36 days earlier for maize. On the country level, contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol decreased slightly, but not significantly. Variability between regions was large, and individual regions showed a significant increase in deoxynivalenol concentrations. For maize, an overall decrease in deoxynivalenol contamination was projected, which was significant for one climate model combination, but not significant for the other one. In general, results disagree with previous reported expectations of increased feed and food safety hazards under climate change. This study illustrated the relevance of using quantitative models to estimate the impacts of climate change effects on food safety, and of considering both direct and indirect effects when assessing climate change impacts on crops and related food safety hazards.}, }
@article {pmid24065614, year = {2013}, author = {McKie, R}, title = {Children will suffer most as climate change increases in coming decades, say scientists.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {347}, number = {}, pages = {f5799}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.f5799}, pmid = {24065614}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Child ; Extreme Heat ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Hunger ; }, }
@article {pmid24064438, year = {2013}, author = {McCreesh, N and Booth, M}, title = {Challenges in predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium transmission potential.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {29}, number = {11}, pages = {548-555}, doi = {10.1016/j.pt.2013.08.007}, pmid = {24064438}, issn = {1471-5007}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Rain ; Schistosoma haematobium/physiology ; Schistosoma mansoni/physiology ; Schistosomiasis haematobia/parasitology/*transmission ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/parasitology/*transmission ; Snails/parasitology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change will inevitably influence both the distribution of Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium and the incidence of schistosomiasis in areas where it is currently endemic, and impact on the feasibility of schistosomiasis control and elimination goals. There are several limitations of current models of climate and schistosome transmission, and substantial gaps in empirical data that impair model development. In this review we consider how temperature, precipitation, heat waves, drought, and flooding could impact on snail and schistosome population dynamics. We discuss how widely used degree day models of schistosome development may not be accurate at lower temperatures, and highlight the need for further research to improve our understanding of the relationship between air and water temperature and schistosome and snail development.}, }
@article {pmid24058934, year = {2013}, author = {Diringer, E}, title = {Climate change: A patchwork of emissions cuts.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {501}, number = {7467}, pages = {307-309}, doi = {10.1038/501307a}, pmid = {24058934}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Global Warming/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; International Cooperation/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Negotiating ; Time Factors ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid24058694, year = {2013}, author = {Whitehouse, MJ and Harrison, NM and Mackenzie, J and Hinsley, SA}, title = {Preferred habitat of breeding birds may be compromised by climate change: unexpected effects of an exceptionally cold, wet spring.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {e75536}, pmid = {24058694}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; *Ecosystem ; England ; Female ; Male ; *Reproduction ; *Seasons ; Wood ; }, abstract = {Previous studies of the consequences for breeding birds of climate change have explored how their populations may respond to increasing temperatures. However, few have considered the likely outcome of predicted extreme conditions and the relative vulnerability of populations in different habitats. Here, we compare phenology and breeding success in great tits and blue tits over a 10 year period, including the extremely harsh conditions during spring 2012, at three sites in eastern England--mixed deciduous woodland, riparian and urban habitat. Production, measured as brood biomass, was significantly lower in 2012 compared with the previous 9 years, with the decrease in productivity relatively greatest in woodland habitat. Production was related to hatch delay, i.e. birds not initiating incubation immediately after clutch completion, which was more common in 2012 than in previous years. The best predictor of hatch delay was daytime temperature (not nighttime minimum temperature) and rainfall, which convincingly reflected low growth and activity of caterpillar prey. We found that birds breeding in riparian and urban habitats were less vulnerable to the extremes of weather than those breeding in mixed deciduous woodland.}, }
@article {pmid24058064, year = {2013}, author = {Rudman, LA and McLean, MC and Bunzl, M}, title = {When truth is personally inconvenient, attitudes change: the impact of extreme weather on implicit support for green politicians and explicit climate-change beliefs.}, journal = {Psychological science}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {2290-2296}, doi = {10.1177/0956797613492775}, pmid = {24058064}, issn = {1467-9280}, mesh = {Adult ; *Attitude ; *Climate Change ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Humans ; Male ; *Politics ; Weather ; Word Association Tests ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {A naturalistic investigation of New Jersey residents, both before and after they experienced Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, examined support for politicians committed or opposed to policies designed to combat climate change. At Time 1, before both hurricanes, participants showed negative implicit attitudes toward a green politician, but at Time 2, after the hurricanes, participants drawn from the same cohort showed a reversed automatic preference. Moreover, those who were significantly affected by Hurricane Sandy were especially likely to implicitly prefer the green politician, and implicit attitudes were the best predictor of voting after the storms, whereas explicit climate-change beliefs was the best predictor before the storms. In concert, the results suggest that direct experience with extreme weather can increase pro-environmentalism, and further support conceptualizing affective experiences as a source of implicit attitudes.}, }
@article {pmid24056234, year = {2013}, author = {Carlton, SJ and Jacobson, SK}, title = {Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {130}, number = {}, pages = {32-39}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.08.038}, pmid = {24056234}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Disasters ; Florida ; Geography ; Oceans and Seas ; Politics ; Regression Analysis ; *Risk ; }, abstract = {Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks.}, }
@article {pmid24048049, year = {2013}, author = {}, title = {Global warming: Outlook for Earth.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {501}, number = {7467}, pages = {297}, doi = {10.1038/501297a}, pmid = {24048049}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Advisory Committees/history/trends ; Earth, Planet ; Environmental Policy/history/*trends ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Risk Assessment ; Seawater/analysis ; United Nations/history ; }, }
@article {pmid24045424, year = {2013}, author = {Towers, S and Chowell, G and Hameed, R and Jastrebski, M and Khan, M and Meeks, J and Mubayi, A and Harris, G}, title = {Climate change and influenza: the likelihood of early and severe influenza seasons following warmer than average winters.}, journal = {PLoS currents}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {24045424}, issn = {2157-3999}, support = {R01 AI097262/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {The 2012-13 influenza season had an unusually early and severe start in the US, succeeding the record mild 2011-12 influenza season, which occurred during the fourth warmest winter on record. Our analysis of climate and past US influenza epidemic seasons between 1997-98 to present indicates that warm winters tend to be followed by severe epidemics with early onset, and that these patterns are seen for both influenza A and B. We posit that fewer people are infected with influenza during warm winters, thereby leaving an unnaturally large fraction of susceptible individuals in the population going into the next season, which can lead to early and severe epidemics. In the event of continued global warming, warm winters such as that of 2011-12 are expected to occur more frequently. Our results thus suggest that expedited manufacture and distribution of influenza vaccines after mild winters has the potential to mitigate the severity of future influenza epidemics.}, }
@article {pmid24043443, year = {2013}, author = {Yamana, TK and Eltahir, EA}, title = {Projected impacts of climate change on environmental suitability for malaria transmission in West Africa.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {121}, number = {10}, pages = {1179-1186}, pmid = {24043443}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Africa, Western/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology/*transmission ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to affect the distribution of environmental suitability for malaria transmission by altering temperature and rainfall patterns; however, the local and global impacts of climate change on malaria transmission are uncertain.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: We assessed the effect of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa.<br><br>METHODS: We coupled a detailed mechanistic hydrology and entomology model with climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) to predict changes in vectorial capacity, an indication of the risk of human malaria infections, resulting from changes in the availability of mosquito breeding sites and temperature-dependent development rates. Because there is strong disagreement in climate predictions from different GCMs, we focused on the GCM projections that produced the best and worst conditions for malaria transmission in each zone of the study area.<br><br>RESULTS: Simulation-based estimates suggest that in the desert fringes of the Sahara, vectorial capacity would increase under the worst-case scenario, but not enough to sustain transmission. In the transitional zone of the Sahel, climate change is predicted to decrease vectorial capacity. In the wetter regions to the south, our estimates suggest an increase in vectorial capacity under all scenarios. However, because malaria is already highly endemic among human populations in these regions, we expect that changes in malaria incidence would be small.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the importance of rainfall in shaping the impact of climate change on malaria transmission in future climates. Even under the GCM predictions most conducive to malaria transmission, we do not expect to see a significant increase in malaria prevalence in this region.}, }
@article {pmid24040260, year = {2013}, author = {Lutz, DA and Powell, RL and Silman, MR}, title = {Four decades of Andean timberline migration and implications for biodiversity loss with climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {e74496}, pmid = {24040260}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Herbivory ; Peru ; *Plant Dispersal ; *Trees ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Rapid 21st-century climate change may lead to large population decreases and extinction in tropical montane cloud forest species in the Andes. While prior research has focused on species migrations per se, ecotones may respond to different environmental factors than species. Even if species can migrate in response to climate change, if ecotones do not they can function as hard barriers to species migrations, making ecotone migrations central to understanding species persistence under scenarios of climate change. We examined a 42-year span of aerial photographs and high resolution satellite imagery to calculate migration rates of timberline--the grassland-forest ecotone-inside and outside of protected areas in the high Peruvian Andes. We found that timberline in protected areas was more likely to migrate upward in elevation than in areas with frequent cattle grazing and fire. However, rates in both protected (0.24 m yr(-1)) and unprotected (0.05 m yr(-1)) areas are only 0.5-2.3% of the rates needed to stay in equilibrium with projected climate by 2100. These ecotone migration rates are 12.5 to 110 times slower than the observed species migration rates within the same forest, suggesting a barrier to migration for mid- and high-elevation species. We anticipate that the ecotone will be a hard barrier to migration under future climate change, leading to drastic population and biodiversity losses in the region unless intensive management steps are taken.}, }
@article {pmid24040228, year = {2013}, author = {Cinner, JE and Huchery, C and Darling, ES and Humphries, AT and Graham, NA and Hicks, CC and Marshall, N and McClanahan, TR}, title = {Evaluating social and ecological vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {e74321}, pmid = {24040228}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change/*economics ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fishes/*physiology ; Humans ; Kenya ; Population Density ; Principal Component Analysis ; }, abstract = {There is an increasing need to evaluate the links between the social and ecological dimensions of human vulnerability to climate change. We use an empirical case study of 12 coastal communities and associated coral reefs in Kenya to assess and compare five key ecological and social components of the vulnerability of coastal social-ecological systems to temperature induced coral mortality [specifically: 1) environmental exposure; 2) ecological sensitivity; 3) ecological recovery potential; 4) social sensitivity; and 5) social adaptive capacity]. We examined whether ecological components of vulnerability varied between government operated no-take marine reserves, community-based reserves, and openly fished areas. Overall, fished sites were marginally more vulnerable than community-based and government marine reserves. Social sensitivity was indicated by the occupational composition of each community, including the importance of fishing relative to other occupations, as well as the susceptibility of different fishing gears to the effects of coral bleaching on target fish species. Key components of social adaptive capacity varied considerably between the communities. Together, these results show that different communities have relative strengths and weaknesses in terms of social-ecological vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24039385, year = {2012}, author = {Zhou, J and Chang, HH and Fuentes, M}, title = {Estimating the Health Impact of Climate Change with Calibrated Climate Model Output.}, journal = {Journal of agricultural, biological, and environmental statistics}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {377-394}, pmid = {24039385}, issn = {1085-7117}, support = {R01 ES014843/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Studies on the health impacts of climate change routinely use climate model output as future exposure projection. Uncertainty quantification, usually in the form of sensitivity analysis, has focused predominantly on the variability arise from different emission scenarios or multi-model ensembles. This paper describes a Bayesian spatial quantile regression approach to calibrate climate model output for examining to the risks of future temperature on adverse health outcomes. Specifically, we first estimate the spatial quantile process for climate model output using nonlinear monotonic regression during a historical period. The quantile process is then calibrated using the quantile functions estimated from the observed monitoring data. Our model also down-scales the gridded climate model output to the point-level for projecting future exposure over a specific geographical region. The quantile regression approach is motivated by the need to better characterize the tails of future temperature distribution where the greatest health impacts are likely to occur. We applied the methodology to calibrate temperature projections from a regional climate model for the period 2041 to 2050. Accounting for calibration uncertainty, we calculated the number of of excess deaths attributed to future temperature for three cities in the US state of Alabama.}, }
@article {pmid24037163, year = {2013}, author = {Krieger, K and Kuchenbecker, A and Hüffmeyer, N and Verworn, HR}, title = {Local effects of global climate change on the urban drainage system of Hamburg.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {68}, number = {5}, pages = {1107-1113}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2013.320}, pmid = {24037163}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Drainage, Sanitary ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The Hamburg Water Group owns and operates a sewer network with a total length of more than 5,700 km. There has been increasing attention paid to the possible impacts of predicted changes in precipitation patterns on the sewer network infrastructure. The primary objective of the work presented in this paper is an estimation of the hydraulic impacts of climate change on the Hamburg drainage system. As a first step, simulated rainfalls based on the regional climate model REMO were compared and validated with long-term precipitation measurements. In the second step, the hydraulic effects on the sewer network of Hamburg have been analyzed based on simulated long-term rainfall series for the period of 2000-2100. Simulation results show a significant increase in combined sewer overflows by 50% as well as an increase in surcharges of storm sewer manholes. However, there is still a substantial amount of uncertainty resulting from model uncertainty and unknown development of future greenhouse gas emissions. So far, there seems to be no sound basis for the implementation of an overall climate factor for sewer dimensioning for the Hamburg region. Nevertheless, possible effects of climate change should be taken into account within the planning process for major sewer extensions or modifications.}, }
@article {pmid24032030, year = {2013}, author = {de Vries, FT and Shade, A}, title = {Controls on soil microbial community stability under climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {265}, pmid = {24032030}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {Soil microbial communities are intricately linked to ecosystem functioning because they play important roles in carbon and nitrogen cycling. Still, we know little about how soil microbial communities will be affected by disturbances expected with climate change. This is a significant gap in understanding, as the stability of microbial communities, defined as a community's ability to resist and recover from disturbances, likely has consequences for ecosystem function. Here, we propose a framework for predicting a community's response to climate change, based on specific functional traits present in the community, the relative dominance of r- and K-strategists, and the soil environment. We hypothesize that the relative abundance of r- and K-strategists will inform about a community's resistance and resilience to climate change associated disturbances. We also propose that other factors specific to soils, such as moisture content and the presence of plants, may enhance a community's resilience. For example, recent evidence suggests microbial grazers, resource availability, and plant roots each impact on microbial community stability. We explore these hypotheses by offering three vignettes of published data that we re-analyzed. Our results show that community measures of the relative abundance of r- and K-strategists, as well as environmental properties like resource availability and the abundance and diversity of higher trophic levels, can contribute to explaining the response of microbial community composition to climate change-related disturbances. However, further investigation and experimental validation is necessary to directly test these hypotheses across a wide range of soil ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid24028938, year = {2013}, author = {Bowen, KJ and Ebi, K and Friel, S and McMichael, AJ}, title = {A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {21820}, pmid = {24028938}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care/organization &amp; administration ; Government ; *Health ; Humans ; Public Policy ; *Social Sciences ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales.<br><br>DESIGN: A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes.<br><br>RESULTS: A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid24026877, year = {2014}, author = {Barnuud, NN and Zerihun, A and Mpelasoka, F and Gibberd, M and Bates, B}, title = {Responses of grape berry anthocyanin and titratable acidity to the projected climate change across the Western Australian wine regions.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {58}, number = {6}, pages = {1279-1293}, pmid = {24026877}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Anthocyanins/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Fruit/chemistry/*metabolism ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Models, Theoretical ; Vitis/*metabolism ; Western Australia ; Wine ; }, abstract = {More than a century of observations has established that climate influences grape berry composition. Accordingly, the projected global climate change is expected to impact on grape berry composition although the magnitude and direction of impact at regional and subregional scales are not fully known. The aim of this study was to assess potential impacts of climate change on levels of berry anthocyanin and titratable acidity (TA) of the major grapevine varieties grown across all of the Western Australian (WA) wine regions. Grape berry anthocyanin and TA responses across all WA wine regions were projected for 2030, 2050 and 2070 by utilising empirical models that link these berry attributes and climate data downscaled (to ∼5 km resolution) from the csiro_mk3_5 and miroc3_2_medres global climate model outputs under IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario. Due to the dependence of berry composition on maturity, climate impacts on anthocyanin and TA levels were assessed at a common maturity of 22 °Brix total soluble solids (TSS), which necessitated the determination of when this maturity will be reached for each variety, region and warming scenario, and future period. The results indicate that both anthocyanin and TA levels will be affected negatively by a warming climate, but the magnitude of the impacts will differ between varieties and wine regions. Compared to 1990 levels, median anthocyanins concentrations are projected to decrease, depending on global climate model, by up to 3-12 % and 9-33 % for the northern wine regions by 2030 and 2070, respectively while 2-18 % reductions are projected in the southern wine regions for the same time periods. Patterns of reductions in the median Shiraz berry anthocyanin concentrations are similar to that of Cabernet Sauvignon; however, the magnitude is lower (up to 9-18 % in southern and northern wine regions respectively by 2070). Similarly, uneven declines in TA levels are projected across the study regions. The largest reductions in median TA are likely to occur in the present day warmer wine regions, up to 40 % for Chardonnay followed by 15 % and 12 % for Shiraz and Cabernet Sauvignon, respectively, by 2070 under the high warming projection (csiro_mk3_5). It is concluded that, under existing management practices, some of the key grape attributes that are integral to premium wine production will be affected negatively by a warming climate, but the magnitudes of the impacts vary across the established wine regions, varieties, the magnitude of warming and future periods considered.}, }
@article {pmid24023958, year = {2013}, author = {Verplanken, B and Roy, D}, title = {"My worries are rational, climate change is not": habitual ecological worrying is an adaptive response.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {e74708}, pmid = {24023958}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Habits ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Qualifications such as "global warming hysteria" and "energy policy schizophrenia" put forward by some climate change skeptics, usually outside the academic arena, may suggest that people who seriously worry about the environment suffer from psychological imbalance. The present study aimed to refute this thesis. While habitual worrying in general is strongly associated with psychopathological symptoms, in a survey a near-zero correlation was found between habitual ecological worrying and pathological worry. Instead, habitual ecological worrying was associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors, and with a personality structure characterized by imagination and an appreciation for new ideas. The study had sufficient statistical power and measures were valid and reliable. The results confirm that those who habitually worry about the ecology are not only lacking in any psychopathology, but demonstrate a constructive and adaptive response to a serious problem. In the public domain, these findings may contribute to a more rational and less emotional debate on climate change and to the prevention of stigmatization of people who are genuinely concerned about our habitat and are prepared to do something about it ("habitual worriers are not crazy"). In the academic arena this study may contribute to environmental psychology ("habitual worrying is part of a green identity"), as well as to the literature on worry and anxiety ("habitual worrying can be a constructive response").}, }
@article {pmid24023925, year = {2013}, author = {Crossman, J and Futter, MN and Whitehead, PG}, title = {The significance of shifts in precipitation patterns: modelling the impacts of climate change and glacier retreat on extreme flood events in Denali National Park, Alaska.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {e74054}, pmid = {24023925}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Alaska ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Floods/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hydrology ; *Ice Cover ; *Models, Statistical ; Rivers ; Temperature ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24 m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21(st) century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21(st) century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff.}, }
@article {pmid24021997, year = {2013}, author = {Hagerman, SM and Satterfield, T}, title = {Entangled judgments: expert preferences for adapting biodiversity conservation to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {129}, number = {}, pages = {555-563}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.07.033}, pmid = {24021997}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Decision Making ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {A major challenge facing conservation experts is how to adapt biodiversity planning and practice to the impacts of climate change. To date, most commonly advocated adaptation actions mirror conventional approaches (e.g. protected areas) despite decades of concern regarding their efficacy and widespread discussion of less conventional, interventionist actions. This survey of 160 experts (scientists and practitioners with specialized knowledge of the implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation) seeks to explain this deep incongruity. Specifically, we quantify current preferences for a diverse set of adaptation actions, and examine the choice logics that underpin them. We find near unanimous agreement in principle with the need for extensive active management and restoration interventions given climate change. However, when interventionist actions are provided as options alongside conventional actions, experts overwhelming prefer the latter. Four hypotheses, developed by linking the conservation adaptation literature with that of preference formation and risk and decision making, explore enduring preferences for conventional actions. They are (1) judged most ecologically effective, least risky and best understood; (2) linked with pro-ecological worldviews, marked by positive affective feelings, and an aversion to the hubris of managing nature; (3) a function of trust in biodiversity governance; and/or (4) driven by demographic factors such as gender. Overall, we find that experts prefer conventional over unconventional actions because they are viewed as relatively more effective and less risky from an ecological point of view, and because they are linked with positive affect ratings, and worldviews that are strongly pro-ecological. We discuss the roles of value-based and affective cues in shaping policy outcomes for adaptation specifically, and sustainable resource management more broadly.}, }
@article {pmid24021464, year = {2013}, author = {Dossey, L}, title = {Global climate change and despair: a way out.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {261-271}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2013.06.007}, pmid = {24021464}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid24019459, year = {2013}, author = {Morin, CW and Comrie, AC}, title = {Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {39}, pages = {15620-15625}, pmid = {24019459}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Culex/*virology ; *Disease Vectors ; *Geography ; *Seasons ; Time Factors ; United States/epidemiology ; West Nile Fever/*epidemiology ; West Nile virus/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions.}, }
@article {pmid24018848, year = {2014}, author = {Ellwood, ER and Playfair, SR and Polgar, CA and Primack, RB}, title = {Cranberry flowering times and climate change in southern Massachusetts.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {58}, number = {7}, pages = {1693-1697}, pmid = {24018848}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Flowers/*growth &amp; development ; Massachusetts ; Seasons ; Vaccinium macrocarpon/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Plants in wild and agricultural settings are being affected by the warmer temperatures associated with climate change. Here we examine the degree to which the iconic New England cranberry, Vaccinium macrocarpon, is exhibiting signs of altered flowering phenology. Using contemporary records from commercial cranberry bogs in southeastern Massachusetts in the United States, we found that cranberry plants are responsive to temperature. Flowering is approximately 2 days earlier for each 1 °C increase in May temperature. We also investigated the relationship between cranberry flowering and flight dates of the bog copper, Lycaena epixanthe-a butterfly dependent upon cranberry plants in its larval stage. Cranberry flowering and bog copper emergence were found to be changing disproportionately over time, suggesting a potential ecological mismatch. The pattern of advanced cranberry flowering over time coupled with increased temperature has implications not only for the relationship between cranberry plants and their insect associates but also for agricultural crops in general and for the commercial cranberry industry.}, }
@article {pmid24015532, year = {2013}, author = {Liang, Y and He, HS and Wu, ZW and Li, XN and Luo, X}, title = {[Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {1183-1191}, pmid = {24015532}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; Sampling Studies ; Species Specificity ; Trees/*classification/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.}, }
@article {pmid24015153, year = {2013}, author = {Diffenbaugh, NS and Scherer, M and Ashfaq, M}, title = {Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming.}, journal = {Nature climate change}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {379-384}, pmid = {24015153}, issn = {1758-678X}, support = {R01 AI090159/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the northern hemisphere [1,2], raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions [1,3]. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (e.g., [1,3-5]), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate change impacts [3,6,7]. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the northern hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe, and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2°C global warming. The occurrence of extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late-21[st] century, as do the occurrence of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the northern hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline.}, }
@article {pmid24014498, year = {2014}, author = {Zhu, K and Woodall, CW and Ghosh, S and Gelfand, AE and Clark, JS}, title = {Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {251-264}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12382}, pmid = {24014498}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; United States ; }, abstract = {Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate-mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental-scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance-climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large-scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile-adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics accelerate with longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales.}, }
@article {pmid24014222, year = {2013}, author = {Kutywayo, D and Chemura, A and Kusena, W and Chidoko, P and Mahoya, C}, title = {The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of agricultural pests: the case of the coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {8}, pages = {e73432}, pmid = {24014222}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Coffea/*parasitology ; Coleoptera/*physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Zimbabwe ; }, abstract = {The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms.}, }
@article {pmid24013276, year = {2015}, author = {León, B and Erviti, MC}, title = {Science in pictures: Visual representation of climate change in Spain's television news.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {183-199}, doi = {10.1177/0963662513500196}, pmid = {24013276}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Perception ; Spain ; *Television ; }, abstract = {The images used by the media to represent science can help people's understanding of complex processes and create meaningful links with audiences. This is particularly relevant in the case of climate change (CC), an important phenomenon that, nevertheless, is often perceived as a remote issue, with no relevance to daily life. This article presents the main results of a research on the images used in television news to represent CC. From a sample of 1476.4 hours of Spanish television news programmes, a content analysis of 78 stories on climate change was carried out. This was complemented with six semi-structured interviews at five TV newsrooms. Results indicate that the low rate of coverage of CC can be related to the scarcity of attractive images available to the channels.}, }
@article {pmid24001685, year = {2014}, author = {Cai, JJ and Song, JH and Lee, Y and Lee, DS}, title = {Assessment of climate change impact on the fates of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the multimedia environment based on model prediction.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {470-471}, number = {}, pages = {1526-1536}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.08.033}, pmid = {24001685}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; *Models, Chemical ; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/*analysis ; Rain ; Republic of Korea ; Seasons ; Soil ; Wind ; }, abstract = {The objective was to quantitatively understand the impacts of climate change (CC) under the A1B scenario on the contamination levels of 11 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from pyrogenic sources in the environmental media based on model prediction. To predict the impacts of CC in South Korea, a revised version of KoEFT-PBTs, a dynamic multimedia model for persistent organic pollutants in South Korea, was used. Simulations were conducted for the period from 2000 to 2049 under the A1B scenario with the emission data for 2009 and the results for Seoul and Kangwon were compared to those under no climate change (NCC) scenario. Due to CC, the average of annual or monthly average concentration changes within a factor of two for the PAHs in air, soil and water. Time dependent comparison indicates that the maximum increase induced by CC in the monthly average concentration ranges from 10 to 10(2) in air and water. Change in advective flux due to wind speed difference between A1B and NCC dictates the change of the atmospheric PAHs levels while wet particle deposition due to rain rate difference contributes to some extent to the change of 5 and 6 ring PAHs. Whether the concentration change is positive or not depends primarily on the emission strength of internal sources relative to those in surrounding areas. The CC induced changes in atmospheric depositions and degradation rate in soil play a leading role in the change of soil concentration. In water, runoff and degradation are the key processes to the CC induced concentration change. Both in soil and water, the relative importance of individual key processes varies with PAHs. The difference between the two scenarios in wind speed and in rain rate shows stronger correlations with the concentration change than the temperature change.}, }
@article {pmid23996901, year = {2014}, author = {Litzow, MA and Mueter, FJ and Hobday, AJ}, title = {Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {38-50}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12373}, pmid = {23996901}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Fishes ; Models, Theoretical ; Pacific Ocean ; Pandalidae ; Principal Component Analysis ; Scyphozoa ; }, abstract = {In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1-2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations.}, }
@article {pmid23995690, year = {2013}, author = {Kosaka, Y and Xie, SP}, title = {Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {501}, number = {7467}, pages = {403-407}, pmid = {23995690}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate ; Global Warming/history/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/history/statistics &amp; numerical data ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pacific Ocean ; Seasons ; *Seawater/analysis ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.}, }
@article {pmid23995385, year = {2013}, author = {Brownlee, MT and Hallo, JC and Wright, BA and Moore, D and Powell, RB}, title = {Visiting a climate-influenced national park: the stability of climate change perceptions.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {52}, number = {5}, pages = {1132-1148}, pmid = {23995385}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Alaska ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Data Collection ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; *Public Opinion ; *Recreation ; }, abstract = {Understanding perceptions of global environmental issues, such as climate change, can help inform resource management, policy development, and communication with constituents. Although a considerable amount of research documents citizens' perceptions of climate change, few have investigated how interactions with climate-impacted parks and protected areas influence these perceptions, and consequently elements of environmental management. Using a mixed methods Instrument Development Approach, the researchers examined the stability of park visitors' (N = 429) climate change perceptions during a daylong interaction with climate-sensitive and influenced resources at Kenai Fjords National Park in Alaska. Results indicate that global-level beliefs about climate change remained relatively stable during a park experience, but perceptions about climate change at the park-level (e.g., impacts) appeared more malleable. Findings also revealed the type of park experience (terrestrial vs. marine) can influence the degree of change in visitors' perceptions. Implications for communication, outreach, and park management are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid23995258, year = {2014}, author = {Guerra, A and Leite, N and Marques, JC and Ford, AT and Martins, I}, title = {Predicting the variation in Echinogammarus marinus at its southernmost limits under global warming scenarios: can the sex-ratio make a difference?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {466-467}, number = {}, pages = {1022-1029}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.102}, pmid = {23995258}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Amphipoda/*physiology ; Animals ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Portugal ; Sex Ratio ; }, abstract = {Understanding the environmental parameters that constrain the distribution of a species at its latitudinal extremes is critical for predicting how ecosystems react to climate change. Our first aim was to predict the variation in the amphipod populations of Echinogammarus marinus from the southernmost limit of its distribution under global warming scenarios. Our second aim was to test whether sex-ratio fluctuations - a mechanism frequently displayed by amphipods - respond to the variations in populations under altered climate conditions. To achieve these aims, scenarios were run with a validated model of E. marinus populations. Simulations were divided into: phase I - simulation of the effect of climate change on amphipod populations, and phase II - simulation of the effect of climate change on populations with male and female proportions. In both phases, temperature (T), salinity (S) and temperature and salinity (T-S) were tested. Results showed that E. marinus populations are highly sensitive to increases in temperature (>2 °C), which has adverse effects on amphipod recruitment and growth. Results from the climate change scenarios coupled with the sex-ratio fluctuations depended largely on the degree of female bias within population. Temperature increase of 2 °C had less impact on female-biased populations, particularly when conjugated with increases in salinity. Male-biased populations were highly sensitive to any variation in temperature and/or salinity; these populations exhibited a long-term decline in density. Simulations in which temperature increased more than 4 °C led to a continuous decline in the E. marinus population. According to this work, E. marinus populations at their southernmost limit are vulnerable to global warming. We anticipate that in Europe, temperature increases of 2 °C will incite a withdrawal of the population of 5°N from the amphipod species located at southernmost geographical borders. This effect is discussed in relation to the distribution of E. marinus along the Atlantic coast.}, }
@article {pmid23991866, year = {2013}, author = {Harborne, AR}, title = {The ecology, behaviour and physiology of fishes on coral reef flats, and the potential impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {83}, number = {3}, pages = {417-447}, doi = {10.1111/jfb.12203}, pmid = {23991866}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Fishes/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Reef flats, typically a low-relief carbonate and sand habitat in shallow water leeward of the reef crest, are one of the most extensive zones on Pacific coral reefs. This shallow zone often supports an abundant and diverse fish assemblage that is exposed to more significant variations in physical factors, such as water depth and movement, temperature and ultraviolet (UV) radiation levels, than most other reef fishes. This review examines the characteristics of reef flat fish assemblages, and then investigates what is known about how they respond to their biophysical environment. Because of the challenges of living in shallow, wave-exposed water, reef flats typically support a distinct fish assemblage compared to other reef habitats. This assemblage clearly changes across tidal cycles as some larger species migrate to deeper water at low tide and other species modify their behaviour, but quantitative data are generally lacking. At least some reef flat fish species are well-adapted to high temperatures, low oxygen concentrations and high levels of UV radiation. These behavioural and physiological adaptations suggest that there may be differences in the demographic processes between reef flat assemblages and those in deeper water. Indeed, there is some evidence that reef flats may act as nurseries for some species, but more research is required. Further studies are also required to predict the effects of climate change, which is likely to have multifaceted impacts on reef flats by increasing temperature, water motion and sediment load. Sea-level rise may also affect reef flat fish assemblages and food webs by increasing the amount of time that larger species are able to forage in this zone. The lack of data on reef flats is surprising given their size and relative ease of access, and a better understanding of their functional role within tropical marine seascapes is urgently required.}, }
@article {pmid23991125, year = {2013}, author = {Hannah, L and Ikegami, M and Hole, DG and Seo, C and Butchart, SH and Peterson, AT and Roehrdanz, PR}, title = {Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {8}, pages = {e72590}, pmid = {23991125}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid23991072, year = {2013}, author = {Hill, SL and Phillips, T and Atkinson, A}, title = {Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {8}, pages = {e72246}, pmid = {23991072}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; *Ecosystem ; *Euphausiacea/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Feeding Behavior ; Models, Theoretical ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21(st) century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat's ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid23990877, year = {2013}, author = {Leitão, J and Ribeiro, R and Soares, AM and Lopes, I}, title = {Tolerance to copper and to salinity in Daphnia longispina: implications within a climate change scenario.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {8}, pages = {e68702}, pmid = {23990877}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Copper/*toxicity ; Daphnia/*drug effects/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Fresh Water ; Genotype ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Oxygen/chemistry ; Salts/*chemistry ; Sodium Chloride/chemistry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {Considering IPPC climate change scenarios, it is pertinent to predict situations where coastal ecosystems already impacted with chemical contamination became exposed to an additional stressor under a future scenario of seawater intrusion. Accordingly, the present study aimed at evaluating if a negative association between tolerance to a metal and to saltwater exists among genotypes of a freshwater organism. For this, five clonal lineages of the cladoceran Daphnia longispina O.F. Müller, exhibiting a differential tolerance to lethal levels of copper, were selected. Each clonal lineage was exposed to lethal and sublethal concentrations of sodium chloride (assumed as a protective surrogate to evaluate the toxicity of increased salinity to freshwater organisms). Mortality, time to release the first brood and total number of neonates per female were monitored and the somatic growth rate and intrinsic rate of natural increase were computed for each clonal lineage. Data here obtained were compared with their lethal responses to copper and significant negative correlations were found. These results suggest that genetically eroded populations of D. longispina, due to copper or salinity, may be particularly susceptible to a later exposure to the other contaminant supporting the multiple stressors differential tolerance.}, }
@article {pmid23988300, year = {2014}, author = {González, C and Paz, A and Ferro, C}, title = {Predicted altitudinal shifts and reduced spatial distribution of Leishmania infantum vector species under climate change scenarios in Colombia.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {129}, number = {}, pages = {83-90}, doi = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2013.08.014}, pmid = {23988300}, issn = {1873-6254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Colombia/epidemiology ; Computer Simulation ; Geography ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*growth &amp; development/parasitology ; Leishmania infantum/*isolation &amp; purification ; Leishmaniasis, Visceral/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Psychodidae/*growth &amp; development/parasitology ; *Topography, Medical ; }, abstract = {Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is caused by the trypanosomatid parasite Leishmania infantum (=Leishmania chagasi), and is epidemiologically relevant due to its wide geographic distribution, the number of annual cases reported and the increase in its co-infection with HIV. Two vector species have been incriminated in the Americas: Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia evansi. In Colombia, L. longipalpis is distributed along the Magdalena River Valley while L. evansi is only found in the northern part of the Country. Regarding the epidemiology of the disease, in Colombia the incidence of VL has decreased over the last few years without any intervention being implemented. Additionally, changes in transmission cycles have been reported with urban transmission occurring in the Caribbean Coast. In Europe and North America climate change seems to be driving a latitudinal shift of leishmaniasis transmission. Here, we explored the spatial distribution of the two known vector species of L. infantum in Colombia and projected its future distribution into climate change scenarios to establish the expansion potential of the disease. An updated database including L. longipalpis and L. evansi collection records from Colombia was compiled. Ecological niche models were performed for each species using the Maxent software and 13 Worldclim bioclimatic coverages. Projections were made for the pessimistic CSIRO A2 scenario, which predicts the higher increase in temperature due to non-emission reduction, and the optimistic Hadley B2 Scenario predicting the minimum increase in temperature. The database contained 23 records for L. evansi and 39 records for L. longipalpis, distributed along the Magdalena River Valley and the Caribbean Coast, where the potential distribution areas of both species were also predicted by Maxent. Climate change projections showed a general overall reduction in the spatial distribution of the two vector species, promoting a shift in altitudinal distribution for L. longipalpis and confining L. evansi to certain regions in the Caribbean Coast. Altitudinal shifts have been reported for cutaneous leishmaniasis vectors in Colombia and Peru. Here, we predict the same outcome for VL vectors in Colombia. Changes in spatial distribution patterns could be affecting local abundances due to climatic pressures on vector populations thus reducing the incidence of human cases.}, }
@article {pmid23988160, year = {2013}, author = {Dufour, A}, title = {Geological sequestration of biomass char to mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {47}, number = {18}, pages = {10106-10107}, doi = {10.1021/es4036418}, pmid = {23988160}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biomass ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Geological Phenomena ; *Waste Products ; }, }
@article {pmid23988156, year = {2013}, author = {Heffernan, C}, title = {Introduction: special issue on animal health and climate change.}, journal = {Animal health research reviews}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {125-126}, doi = {10.1017/S1466252313000078}, pmid = {23988156}, issn = {1475-2654}, mesh = {*Animal Diseases ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid23986899, year = {2013}, author = {Driscoll, DL and Sunbury, T and Johnston, J and Renes, S}, title = {Initial findings from the implementation of a community-based sentinel surveillance system to assess the health effects of climate change in Alaska.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {72}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {23986899}, issn = {2242-3982}, support = {5U38HM000549-04/HM/NCHM CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Alaska/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Female ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Morbidity ; Rural Population/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Sentinel Surveillance ; Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This report describes the results of a study to determine whether a community-based sentinel surveillance system can be developed and implemented to assess the health effects of climate change, and to contribute to local discussions to mitigate these health effects. The purpose of this report is to describe the process and outcomes of this innovative approach to identifying priority areas for adaptation investment. This report can be used to assist local, state and federal governments in determining how to develop actions and policies to promote adaptation to climate change.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the health effects of climate change in rural Alaska.<br><br>DESIGN: We conducted an iterative and participatory process to develop metrics, an instrument and a protocol to collect sentinel surveillance data on the health effects of climate change in 3 ecologically distinct regions of the state.<br><br>RESULTS: We collected surveillance data from 91 study participants over the course of 12 months. These data were analyzed and categorized by frequency and association between specific health outcomes or health-related factors (such as food security) and reported exposure to environmental effects of climate change. We found significant associations between several health outcomes and health outcome mediators and reported exposures. We presented these data to study participants in community settings and moderated discussions of likely causal factors for these measured associations, and helped community residents to identify specific adaption measures to mitigate those health effects.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that community-based sentinel surveillance is an effective method for assessing health outcomes from exposure to environmental effects of climate change, and informing climate change health adaptation planning in Alaskan communities. We contend that it would be effective in other regions of the nation as well.}, }
@article {pmid23984268, year = {2013}, author = {Gadamus, L}, title = {Linkages between human health and ocean health: a participatory climate change vulnerability assessment for marine mammal harvesters.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {72}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {23984268}, issn = {2242-3982}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Focus Groups ; Food Safety ; Food Supply ; Health Status ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; Inuit ; Oceans and Seas ; Seals, Earless ; Walruses ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Indigenous residents of Alaska's Bering Strait Region depend, both culturally and nutritionally, on ice seal and walrus harvests. Currently, climate change and resultant increases in marine industrial development threaten these species and the cultures that depend on them.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To document: (a) local descriptions of the importance of marine mammal hunting; (b) traditional methods for determining if harvested marine mammals are safe to consume; and (c) marine mammal outcomes that would have adverse effects on community health, the perceived causes of these outcomes, strategies for preventing these outcomes and community adaptations to outcomes that cannot be mitigated.<br><br>DESIGN: Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were conducted with 82 indigenous hunters and elders from the Bering Strait region. Standard qualitative analysis was conducted on interview transcripts, which were coded for both inductive and deductive codes. Responses describing marine mammal food safety and importance are presented using inductively generated categories. Responses describing negative marine mammal outcomes are presented in a vulnerability framework, which links human health outcomes to marine conditions.<br><br>RESULTS: Project participants perceived that shipping noise and pollution, as well as marine mammal food source depletion by industrial fishing, posed the greatest threats to marine mammal hunting traditions. Proposed adaptations primarily fell into 2 categories: (a) greater tribal influence over marine policy; and (b) documentation of traditional knowledge for local use. This paper presents 1 example of documenting traditional knowledge as an adaptation strategy: traditional methods for determining if marine mammal food is safe to eat.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Participant recommendations indicate that 1 strategy to promote rural Alaskan adaptation to climate change is to better incorporate local knowledge and values into decision-making processes. Participant interest in documenting traditional knowledge for local use also indicates that funding agencies could support climate change adaptation by awarding more grants for tribal research that advances local, rather than academic, use of traditional knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid23980247, year = {2013}, author = {Godbold, JA and Calosi, P}, title = {Ocean acidification and climate change: advances in ecology and evolution.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1627}, pages = {20120448}, pmid = {23980247}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; *Phenotype ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Species Specificity ; }, }
@article {pmid23977011, year = {2013}, author = {Ficklin, DL and Stewart, IT and Maurer, EP}, title = {Climate change impacts on streamflow and subbasin-scale hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {8}, pages = {e71297}, pmid = {23977011}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Colorado ; Ecosystem ; Hydrology ; *Models, Statistical ; *Rivers ; Seasons ; Soil ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21(st) century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21(st) century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of -100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of -100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health.}, }
@article {pmid23972324, year = {2013}, author = {Moors, E and Singh, T and Siderius, C and Balakrishnan, S and Mishra, A}, title = {Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in northern India: impacts and adaptation strategies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {468-469 Suppl}, number = {}, pages = {S139-51}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.021}, pmid = {23972324}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Diarrhea/*epidemiology ; Humans ; India ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of a waterborne infectious disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of northern India. A conceptual framework is presented for climate exposure response relationships based on studies from different countries, as empirical studies and appropriate epidemiological data sets for India are lacking. Four climate variables are included: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. Applying the conceptual framework to the latest regional climate projections for northern India shows increases between present and future (2040s), varying spatially from no change to an increase of 21% in diarrhoea incidences, with 13.1% increase on average for the Ganges basin. We discuss three types of measures against diarrhoeal disease: reactive actions, preventive actions and national policy options. Preventive actions have the potential to counterbalance this expected increase. However, given the limited progress in reducing incidences over the past decade consorted actions and effective implementation and integration of existing policies are needed.}, }
@article {pmid23970827, year = {2013}, author = {Hao, Z and Ju, Q and Jiang, W and Zhu, C}, title = {Characteristics and scenarios projection of climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {2013}, number = {}, pages = {129793}, pmid = {23970827}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Temperature ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) presents twenty-two global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we evaluate the ability of 22 GCMs to reproduce temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by comparing with ground observations for 1961~1900. The results suggest that all the GCMs underestimate surface air temperature and most models overestimate precipitation in most regions on the Tibetan Plateau. Only a few models (each 5 models for precipitation and temperature) appear roughly consistent with the observations in annual temperature and precipitation variations. Comparatively, GFCM21 and CGMR are able to better reproduce the observed annual temperature and precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau. Although the scenarios predicted by the GCMs vary greatly, all the models predict consistently increasing trends in temperature and precipitation in most regions in the Tibetan Plateau in the next 90 years. The results suggest that the temperature and precipitation will both increase in all three periods under different scenarios, with scenario A1 increasing the most and scenario A1B increasing the least.}, }
@article {pmid23968538, year = {2013}, author = {Bartomeus, I and Park, MG and Gibbs, J and Danforth, BN and Lakso, AN and Winfree, R}, title = {Biodiversity ensures plant-pollinator phenological synchrony against climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16}, number = {11}, pages = {1331-1338}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12170}, pmid = {23968538}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees/*physiology ; *Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Malus/*physiology ; Pollination/*physiology ; Retrospective Studies ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change has the potential to alter the phenological synchrony between interacting mutualists, such as plants and their pollinators. However, high levels of biodiversity might buffer the negative effects of species-specific phenological shifts and maintain synchrony at the community level, as predicted by the biodiversity insurance hypothesis. Here, we explore how biodiversity might enhance and stabilise phenological synchrony between a valuable crop, apple and its native pollinators. We combine 46 years of data on apple flowering phenology with historical records of bee pollinators over the same period. When the key apple pollinators are considered altogether, we found extensive synchrony between bee activity and apple peak bloom due to complementarity among bee species' activity periods, and also a stable trend over time due to differential responses to warming climate among bee species. A simulation model confirms that high biodiversity levels can ensure plant-pollinator phenological synchrony and thus pollination function.}, }
@article {pmid23966290, year = {2014}, author = {Allen, JM and Terres, MA and Katsuki, T and Iwamoto, K and Kobori, H and Higuchi, H and Primack, RB and Wilson, AM and Gelfand, A and Silander, JA}, title = {Modeling daily flowering probabilities: expected impact of climate change on Japanese cherry phenology.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {1251-1263}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12364}, pmid = {23966290}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; Climate Change ; *Flowers ; Japan ; Longitudinal Studies ; *Models, Biological ; Probability ; *Prunus ; }, abstract = {Understanding the drivers of phenological events is vital for forecasting species' responses to climate change. We developed flexible Bayesian survival regression models to assess a 29-year, individual-level time series of flowering phenology from four taxa of Japanese cherry trees (Prunus spachiana, Prunus × yedoensis, Prunus jamasakura, and Prunus lannesiana), from the Tama Forest Cherry Preservation Garden in Hachioji, Japan. Our modeling framework used time-varying (chill and heat units) and time-invariant (slope, aspect, and elevation) factors. We found limited differences among taxa in sensitivity to chill, but earlier flowering taxa, such as P. spachiana, were more sensitive to heat than later flowering taxa, such as P. lannesiana. Using an ensemble of three downscaled regional climate models under the A1B emissions scenario, we projected shifts in flowering timing by 2100. Projections suggest that each taxa will flower about 30 days earlier on average by 2100 with 2-6 days greater uncertainty around the species mean flowering date. Dramatic shifts in the flowering times of cherry trees may have implications for economically important cultural festivals in Japan and East Asia. The survival models used here provide a mechanistic modeling approach and are broadly applicable to any time-to-event phenological data, such as plant leafing, bird arrival time, and insect emergence. The ability to explicitly quantify uncertainty, examine phenological responses on a fine time scale, and incorporate conditions leading up to an event may provide future insight into phenologically driven changes in carbon balance and ecological mismatches of plants and pollinators in natural populations and horticultural crops.}, }
@article {pmid23966269, year = {2014}, author = {Krishnaswamy, J and John, R and Joseph, S}, title = {Consistent response of vegetation dynamics to recent climate change in tropical mountain regions.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {203-215}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12362}, pmid = {23966269}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Linear Models ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plant Development ; Rain ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Global climate change has emerged as a major driver of ecosystem change. Here, we present evidence for globally consistent responses in vegetation dynamics to recent climate change in the world's mountain ecosystems located in the pan-tropical belt (30°N-30°S). We analyzed decadal-scale trends and seasonal cycles of vegetation greenness using monthly time series of satellite greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and climate data for the period 1982-2006 for 47 mountain protected areas in five biodiversity hotspots. The time series of annual maximum NDVI for each of five continental regions shows mild greening trends followed by reversal to stronger browning trends around the mid-1990s. During the same period we found increasing trends in temperature but only marginal change in precipitation. The amplitude of the annual greenness cycle increased with time, and was strongly associated with the observed increase in temperature amplitude. We applied dynamic models with time-dependent regression parameters to study the time evolution of NDVI-climate relationships. We found that the relationship between vegetation greenness and temperature weakened over time or was negative. Such loss of positive temperature sensitivity has been documented in other regions as a response to temperature-induced moisture stress. We also used dynamic models to extract the trends in vegetation greenness that remain after accounting for the effects of temperature and precipitation. We found residual browning and greening trends in all regions, which indicate that factors other than temperature and precipitation also influence vegetation dynamics. Browning rates became progressively weaker with increase in elevation as indicated by quantile regression models. Tropical mountain vegetation is considered sensitive to climatic changes, so these consistent vegetation responses across widespread regions indicate persistent global-scale effects of climate warming and associated moisture stresses.}, }
@article {pmid23966231, year = {2014}, author = {Ogle, SM and Olander, L and Wollenberg, L and Rosenstock, T and Tubiello, F and Paustian, K and Buendia, L and Nihart, A and Smith, P}, title = {Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting agricultural management for climate change in developing countries: providing the basis for action.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {1-6}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12361}, pmid = {23966231}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/analysis/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; }, abstract = {Agriculture in developing countries has attracted increasing attention in international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for both adaptation to climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation. However, there is limited understanding about potential complementarity between management practices that promote adaptation and mitigation, and limited basis to account for greenhouse gas emission reductions in this sector. The good news is that the global research community could provide the support needed to address these issues through further research linking adaptation and mitigation. In addition, a small shift in strategy by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and ongoing assistance from agricultural organizations could produce a framework to move the research and development from concept to reality. In turn, significant progress is possible in the near term providing the basis for UNFCCC negotiations to move beyond discussion to action for the agricultural sector in developing countries.}, }
@article {pmid23964626, year = {2013}, author = {Takaro, TK and Knowlton, K and Balmes, JR}, title = {Climate change and respiratory health: current evidence and knowledge gaps.}, journal = {Expert review of respiratory medicine}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {349-361}, doi = {10.1586/17476348.2013.814367}, pmid = {23964626}, issn = {1747-6356}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Allergens/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disasters ; Emigration and Immigration ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Food Supply ; *Global Health ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/diagnosis/*epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Water Supply ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a key driver of the accelerating environmental change affecting populations around the world. Many of these changes and our response to them can affect respiratory health. This is an expert opinion review of recent peer-reviewed literature, focused on more recent medical journals and climate-health relevant modeling results from non-biomedical journals pertaining to climate interactions with air pollution. Global health impacts in low resource countries and migration precipitated by environmental change are addressed. The major findings are of respiratory health effects related to heat, air pollution, shifts in infectious diseases and allergens, flooding, water, food security and migration. The review concludes with knowledge gaps and research need that will support the evidence-base required to address the challenges ahead.}, }
@article {pmid23961191, year = {2012}, author = {Alrashidi, M and Shobrak, M and Al-Eissa, MS and Székely, T}, title = {Integrating spatial data and shorebird nesting locations to predict the potential future impact of global warming on coastal habitats: A case study on Farasan Islands, Saudi Arabia.}, journal = {Saudi journal of biological sciences}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {311-315}, pmid = {23961191}, issn = {1319-562X}, abstract = {One of the expected effects of the global warming is changing coastal habitats by accelerating the rate of sea level rise. Coastal habitats support large number of marine and wetland species including shorebirds (plovers, sandpipers and allies). In this study, we investigate how coastal habitats may be impacted by sea level rise in the Farasan Islands, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We use Kentish plover Charadrius alexandrinus - a common coastal breeding shorebird - as an ecological model species to predict the influence of sea level rise. We found that any rise of sea level is likely to inundate 11% of Kentish plover nests. In addition, 5% of the coastal areas of Farasan Islands, which support 26% of Kentish plover nests, will be flooded, if sea level rises by one metre. Our results are constrained by the availability of data on both elevation and bird populations. Therefore, we recommend follow-up studies to model the impacts of sea level rise using different elevation scenarios, and the establishment of a monitoring programme for breeding shorebirds and seabirds in Farasan Islands to assess the impact of climate change on their populations.}, }
@article {pmid23958138, year = {2013}, author = {Marquès, M and Bangash, RF and Kumar, V and Sharp, R and Schuhmacher, M}, title = {The impact of climate change on water provision under a low flow regime: a case study of the ecosystems services in the Francoli river basin.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {263 Pt 1}, number = {}, pages = {224-232}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2013.07.049}, pmid = {23958138}, issn = {1873-3336}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Hydrology ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers ; Spain ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Mediterranean basin is considered one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to climate change and with high probability to face acute water scarcity problem in the coming years. Francolí River basin (NE Spain), located in this vulnerable region is selected as a case study to evaluate the impact of climate change on the delivery of water considering the IPCC scenarios A2 and B1 for the time spans 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. InVEST model is applied in a low flow river as a new case study, which reported successful results after its model validation. The studied hydrological ecosystem services will be highly impacted by climate change at Francolí River basin. Water yield is expected to be reduced between 11.5 and 44% while total drinking water provisioning will decrease between 13 and 50% having adverse consequences on the water quality of the river. Focusing at regional scale, Prades Mountains and Brugent Tributary provide most of the provision of water and also considered highly vulnerable areas to climate change. However, the most vulnerable part is the northern area which has the lowest provision of water. Francolí River basin is likely to experience desertification at this area drying Anguera and Vallverd tributaries.}, }
@article {pmid23956960, year = {2013}, author = {Thong, BY}, title = {The effects of environmental pollution and climate change on allergic diseases.}, journal = {Asia Pacific allergy}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {143-144}, pmid = {23956960}, issn = {2233-8276}, }
@article {pmid23956202, year = {2013}, author = {Buchholz, S and Rolfsmeyer, D and Schirmel, J}, title = {Simulating small-scale climate change effects-lessons from a short-term field manipulation experiment on grassland arthropods.}, journal = {Insect science}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {662-670}, doi = {10.1111/j.1744-7917.2012.01556.x}, pmid = {23956202}, issn = {1744-7917}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/classification/*physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Grasshoppers/classification/*physiology ; Humidity ; Models, Biological ; Soil/chemistry ; Spiders/classification/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to cause major consequences on biodiversity. Understanding species-specific reactions, such as species shifts, species declines, and changes in population dynamics is a key issue to quantify large-scale impacts of climate change on biotic communities. As it is often impossible or at least impracticable to conduct large-scale experiments on biotic responses to climate change, studies at a smaller scale may be a useful alternative. In our study, we therefore tested responses of grassland arthropods (carabid beetles, spiders, grasshoppers) to simulated climate change in terms of species activity densities and diversity. We conducted a controlled field experiment by changing water and microclimatic conditions at a small scale (16 m(2)). Roof constructions were used to increase drought-like conditions, whereas water supply was enhanced by irrigation. In all, 2 038 carabid beetles (36 species), 4 893 spiders (65 species), and 303 Orthoptera (4 species) were caught using pitfall traps from May to August, 2010. During our experiment, we created an artificial small-scale climate change; and statistics revealed that these changes had short-term effects on the total number of individuals and Simpson diversity of the studied arthropod groups. Moreover, our results showed that certain species might react very quickly to climate change in terms of activity densities, which in turn might influence diversity due to shifts in abundance patterns. Finally, we devised methodological improvements that may further enhance the validity of future studies.}, }
@article {pmid23955216, year = {2013}, author = {Tingley, MW and Estes, LD and Wilcove, DS}, title = {Ecosystems: climate change must not blow conservation off course.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {500}, number = {7462}, pages = {271-272}, pmid = {23955216}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*trends ; Global Warming ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid23953958, year = {2013}, author = {Beugnet, F and Chalvet-Monfray, K}, title = {Impact of climate change in the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases in domestic carnivores.}, journal = {Comparative immunology, microbiology and infectious diseases}, volume = {36}, number = {6}, pages = {559-566}, doi = {10.1016/j.cimid.2013.07.003}, pmid = {23953958}, issn = {1878-1667}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Animals ; Animals, Domestic ; Carnivora ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*veterinary ; Culicidae/parasitology/virology ; *Disease Vectors ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Psychodidae/parasitology ; Siphonaptera ; Ticks/parasitology/virology ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases are medically important in humans and animals but were long considered tropical and known to first affect production animals. This is no longer true and we can see today that they are common in domestic animals and that they are also present in temperate countries, especially in Europe. In recent years, an increase in the diagnosis of vector borne diseases among humans and animals has been observed, which may partly due to the development of diagnostic tools. Their study requires exchanges and collaborations between the many actors involved, especially since the epidemiology seems to be constantly evolving. The veterinary practitioner is the first one to notice the emergence of cases and to implement prevention measures. He also acts as a sentinel to alert epidemiologists. Many factors can explain the epidemiological changes, i.e. all human factors, such as the increase in commercial transportation, but also owners traveling with their pet during the holidays, the development of "outdoor" activities, the increase of individual housings with gardens; to these human factors must be added the ignorance of the risks, linked to animals in general and to wildlife in particular; then the environmental changes: forest fragmentation, establishment of parks; the increase of wild mammal populations (deer, carnivores, rodents, etc.); finally, climate changes. Climate change is a reality which may explain the increase of density of arthropod vectors, but also of their hosts, changes in periods of activity and variations in geographical distribution. The authors show the proof of the climate modifications and then explain how it has an impact in Europe on ticks, mosquitoes, sandflies and even fleas. They conclude on the practical consequences for veterinary practitioners, especially with the diagnosis of parasitic diseases or diseases in areas where they usually do not occur. However, not any epidemiological modification should be linked to climate change, since many other factors are involved and often even overriding.}, }
@article {pmid23953405, year = {2014}, author = {Gobiet, A and Kotlarski, S and Beniston, M and Heinrich, G and Rajczak, J and Stoffel, M}, title = {21st century climate change in the European Alps--a review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {493}, number = {}, pages = {1138-1151}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.050}, pmid = {23953405}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities.}, }
@article {pmid23950868, year = {2013}, author = {Cox, R and Sanchez, J and Revie, CW}, title = {Multi-criteria decision analysis tools for prioritising emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases associated with climate change in Canada.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {8}, pages = {e68338}, pmid = {23950868}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/classification/*prevention &amp; control ; Decision Making ; *Decision Support Techniques ; Expert Testimony/standards ; Health Priorities/*standards ; Humans ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is known to result in the emergence or re-emergence of some infectious diseases. Reliable methods to identify the infectious diseases of humans and animals and that are most likely to be influenced by climate are therefore required. Since different priorities will affect the decision to address a particular pathogen threat, decision makers need a standardised method of prioritisation. Ranking methods and Multi-Criteria Decision approaches provide such a standardised method and were employed here to design two different pathogen prioritisation tools. The opinion of 64 experts was elicited to assess the importance of 40 criteria that could be used to prioritise emerging infectious diseases of humans and animals in Canada. A weight was calculated for each criterion according to the expert opinion. Attributes were defined for each criterion as a transparent and repeatable method of measurement. Two different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tools were tested, both of which used an additive aggregation approach. These were an Excel spreadsheet tool and a tool developed in software 'M-MACBETH'. The tools were trialed on nine 'test' pathogens. Two different methods of criteria weighting were compared, one using fixed weighting values, the other using probability distributions to account for uncertainty and variation in expert opinion. The ranking of the nine pathogens varied according to the weighting method that was used. In both tools, using both weighting methods, the diseases that tended to rank the highest were West Nile virus, Giardiasis and Chagas, while Coccidioidomycosis tended to rank the lowest. Both tools are a simple and user friendly approach to prioritising pathogens according to climate change by including explicit scoring of 40 criteria and incorporating weighting methods based on expert opinion. They provide a dynamic interactive method that can help to identify pathogens for which a full risk assessment should be pursued.}, }
@article {pmid23950785, year = {2013}, author = {Foden, WB and Butchart, SH and Stuart, SN and Vié, JC and Akçakaya, HR and Angulo, A and DeVantier, LM and Gutsche, A and Turak, E and Cao, L and Donner, SD and Katariya, V and Bernard, R and Holland, RA and Hughes, AF and O'Hanlon, SE and Garnett, ST and Sekercioğlu, CH and Mace, GM}, title = {Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e65427}, pmid = {23950785}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Amphibians/*physiology ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; }, abstract = {Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%), 670-933 amphibian (11-15%), and 47-73 coral species (6-9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid23949894, year = {2013}, author = {Rangecroft, S and Harrison, S and Anderson, K and Magrath, J and Castel, AP and Pacheco, P}, title = {Climate change and water resources in arid mountains: an example from the Bolivian Andes.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {42}, number = {7}, pages = {852-863}, pmid = {23949894}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Altitude ; Bolivia ; *Climate Change ; Ice Cover ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change is projected to have a strongly negative effect on water supplies in the arid mountains of South America, significantly impacting millions of people. As one of the poorest countries in the region, Bolivia is particularly vulnerable to such changes due to its limited capacity to adapt. Water security is threatened further by glacial recession with Bolivian glaciers losing nearly half their ice mass over the past 50 years raising serious water management concerns. This review examines current trends in water availability and glacier melt in the Bolivian Andes, assesses the driving factors of reduced water availability and identifies key gaps in our knowledge of the Andean cryosphere. The lack of research regarding permafrost water sources in the Bolivian Andes is addressed, with focus on the potential contribution to mountain water supplies provided by rock glaciers.}, }
@article {pmid23948740, year = {2013}, author = {Sugiura, T and Ogawa, H and Fukuda, N and Moriguchi, T}, title = {Changes in the taste and textural attributes of apples in response to climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {2418}, pmid = {23948740}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Food Analysis ; Fruit/*anatomy &amp; histology/classification/*physiology ; Malus/*anatomy &amp; histology/classification/*physiology ; *Taste ; }, abstract = {The effects of climate change on the taste and textural attributes of foods remain largely unknown, despite much public interest. On the basis of 30-40 years of records, we provide evidence that the taste and textural attributes of apples have changed as a result of recent global warming. Decreases in both acid concentration, fruit firmness and watercore development were observed regardless of the maturity index used for harvest date (e.g., calendar date, number of days after full bloom, peel colour and starch concentration), whereas in some cases the soluble-solids concentration increased; all such changes may have resulted from earlier blooming and higher temperatures during the maturation period. These results suggest that the qualities of apples in the market are undergoing long-term changes.}, }
@article {pmid23942550, year = {2013}, author = {Martínez-Freiría, F and Argaz, H and Fahd, S and Brito, JC}, title = {Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas.}, journal = {Die Naturwissenschaften}, volume = {100}, number = {9}, pages = {877-889}, pmid = {23942550}, issn = {1432-1904}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Models, Theoretical ; Morocco ; Reptiles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.}, }
@article {pmid23937698, year = {2013}, author = {Kiang, K and Graham, S and Farrant, B}, title = {Climate change, child health and the role of the paediatric profession in under-resourced settings.}, journal = {Tropical medicine &amp; international health : TM &amp; IH}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {1053-1056}, doi = {10.1111/tmi.12153}, pmid = {23937698}, issn = {1365-3156}, mesh = {Child Welfare/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change/economics ; Developing Countries ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant ; Information Services ; *Medically Underserved Area ; *Pediatrics/economics ; Physician's Role ; Workforce ; }, }
@article {pmid23935820, year = {2013}, author = {Thomassen, HA and Fuller, T and Asefi-Najafabady, S and Shiplacoff, JA and Mulembakani, PM and Blumberg, S and Johnston, SC and Kisalu, NK and Kinkela, TL and Fair, JN and Wolfe, ND and Shongo, RL and LeBreton, M and Meyer, H and Wright, LL and Muyembe, JJ and Buermann, W and Okitolonda, E and Hensley, LE and Lloyd-Smith, JO and Smith, TB and Rimoin, AW}, title = {Pathogen-host associations and predicted range shifts of human monkeypox in response to climate change in central Africa.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e66071}, pmid = {23935820}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {DP1 OD000370/OD/NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI074059/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; -1R01AI074059-01/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Cercopithecus/virology ; *Climate Change ; Democratic Republic of the Congo ; Disease Reservoirs/*virology ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Mpox (monkeypox)/transmission/*virology ; Monkeypox virus/*physiology ; Sciuridae/virology ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4(th) Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.}, }
@article {pmid23935188, year = {2013}, author = {Warner, KE}, title = {Global warming comes to tobacco control.}, journal = {Tobacco control}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {289-290}, doi = {10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2013-051129}, pmid = {23935188}, issn = {1468-3318}, mesh = {*Behavior Therapy ; *Carbon Footprint ; *Counseling ; Health Promotion/*methods ; *Hotlines ; Humans ; *Smoking ; *Smoking Cessation ; }, }
@article {pmid23934061, year = {2013}, author = {Li, C and Tang, Y and Luo, H and Di, B and Zhang, L}, title = {Local farmers' perceptions of climate change and local adaptive strategies: a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, Tibet, China.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {52}, number = {4}, pages = {894-906}, pmid = {23934061}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Adolescent ; Adult ; *Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Disasters ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Rain ; Rural Population ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Tibet ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects the productivity of agricultural ecosystems. Farmers cope with climate change based on their perceptions of changing climate patterns. Using a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, we present a new research framework that uses questionnaire and interview methods to compare local farmers' perceptions of climate change with the adaptive farming strategies they adopt. Most farmers in the valley believed that temperatures had increased in the last 30 years but did not note any changes in precipitation. Most farmers also reported sowing and harvesting hulless barley 10-15 days earlier than they were 20 years ago. In addition, farmers observed that plants were flowering and river ice was melting earlier in the season, but they did not perceive changes in plant germination, herbaceous vegetation growth, or other spring seasonal events. Most farmers noticed an extended fall season signified by delays in the freezing of rivers and an extended growing season for grassland vegetation. The study results showed that agricultural practices in the study area are still traditional; that is, local farmers' perceptions of climate change and their strategies to mitigate its impacts were based on indigenous knowledge and their own experiences. Adaptive strategies included adjusting planting and harvesting dates, changing crop species, and improving irrigation infrastructure. However, the farmers' decisions could not be fully attributed to their concerns about climate change. Local farming systems exhibit high adaptability to climate variability. Additionally, off-farm income has reduced the dependence of the farmers on agriculture, and an agricultural subsidy from the Chinese Central Government has mitigated the farmers' vulnerability. Nevertheless, it remains necessary for local farmers to build a system of adaptive climate change strategies that combines traditional experience and indigenous knowledge with scientific research and government polices as key factors.}, }
@article {pmid23932473, year = {2013}, author = {Bijma, J and Pörtner, HO and Yesson, C and Rogers, AD}, title = {Climate change and the oceans--what does the future hold?.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {74}, number = {2}, pages = {495-505}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2013.07.022}, pmid = {23932473}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis/toxicity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/chemistry ; Water Pollutants/analysis/toxicity ; Water Pollution/prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {The ocean has been shielding the earth from the worst effects of rapid climate change by absorbing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This absorption of CO2 is driving the ocean along the pH gradient towards more acidic conditions. At the same time ocean warming is having pronounced impacts on the composition, structure and functions of marine ecosystems. Warming, freshening (in some areas) and associated stratification are driving a trend in ocean deoxygenation, which is being enhanced in parts of the coastal zone by upwelling of hypoxic deep water. The combined impact of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are already having a dramatic effect on the flora and fauna of the oceans with significant changes in distribution of populations, and decline of sensitive species. In many cases, the impacts of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are increased by the effects of other human impacts, such as pollution, eutrophication and overfishing. The interactive effects of this deadly trio mirrors similar events in the Earth's past, which were often coupled with extinctions of major species' groups. Here we review the observed impacts and, using past episodes in the Earth's history, set out what the future may hold if carbon emissions and climate change are not significantly reduced with more or less immediate effect.}, }
@article {pmid23928946, year = {2014}, author = {Honda, Y and Kondo, M and McGregor, G and Kim, H and Guo, YL and Hijioka, Y and Yoshikawa, M and Oka, K and Takano, S and Hales, S and Kovats, RS}, title = {Heat-related mortality risk model for climate change impact projection.}, journal = {Environmental health and preventive medicine}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {56-63}, pmid = {23928946}, issn = {1347-4715}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Middle Aged ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: We previously developed a model for projection of heat-related mortality attributable to climate change. The objective of this paper is to improve the fit and precision of and examine the robustness of the model.<br><br>METHODS: We obtained daily data for number of deaths and maximum temperature from respective governmental organizations of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the USA, and European countries. For future projection, we used the Bergen climate model&#xa0;2 (BCM2) general circulation model, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B socioeconomic scenario, and the mortality projection for the 65+-year-old age group developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The heat-related excess mortality was defined as follows: The temperature-mortality relation forms a V-shaped curve, and the temperature at which mortality becomes lowest is called the optimum temperature (OT). The difference in mortality between the OT and a temperature beyond the OT is the excess mortality. To develop the model for projection, we used Japanese 47-prefecture data from 1972 to 2008. Using a distributed lag nonlinear model (two-dimensional nonparametric regression of temperature and its lag effect), we included the lag effect of temperature up to 15&#xa0;days, and created a risk function curve on which the projection is based. As an example, we perform a future projection using the above-mentioned risk function. In the projection, we used 1961-1990 temperature as the baseline, and temperatures in the 2030s and 2050s were projected using the BCM2 global circulation model, SRES A1B scenario, and WHO-provided annual mortality. Here, we used the "counterfactual method" to evaluate the climate change impact; For example, baseline temperature and 2030 mortality were used to determine the baseline excess, and compared with the 2030 excess, for which we used 2030 temperature and 2030 mortality. In terms of adaptation to warmer climate, we assumed 0&#xa0;% adaptation when the OT as of the current climate is used and 100&#xa0;% adaptation when the OT as of the future climate is used. The midpoint of the OTs of the two types of adaptation was set to be the OT for 50&#xa0;% adaptation.<br><br>RESULTS: We calculated heat-related excess mortality for 2030 and 2050.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our new model is considered to be better fit, and more precise and robust compared with the previous model.}, }
@article {pmid23926844, year = {2013}, author = {Mu, Y and Mu, X}, title = {Response to comments by John W. Russell on "Energy conservation in the Earth's crust and climate change".}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {63}, number = {7}, pages = {753-754}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2013.803407}, pmid = {23926844}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Earth, Planet ; Fossil Fuels/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid23926843, year = {2013}, author = {Russell, JW}, title = {Response to "Mu, Y., and X. Mu. 2013. Energy conservation in the Earth's crust and climate change, J Air &amp; Waste Manage. Assoc. 63(2): 150-160".}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {63}, number = {7}, pages = {751-752}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2013.803404}, pmid = {23926843}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Earth, Planet ; Fossil Fuels/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid23925864, year = {2014}, author = {Liu, Y and Yu, D and Xun, B and Sun, Y and Hao, R}, title = {The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {186}, number = {1}, pages = {135-149}, pmid = {23925864}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Cunninghamia/*growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Climate changes may have immediate implications for forest productivity and may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions in the future. Quantifying these implications is significant for both scientists and managers. Cunninghamia lanceolata is an important coniferous timber species due to its fast growth and wide distribution in China. This paper proposes a methodology aiming at enhancing the distribution and productivity of C. lanceolata against a background of climate change. First, we simulated the potential distributions and establishment probabilities of C. lanceolata based on a species distribution model. Second, a process-based model, the PnET-II model, was calibrated and its parameterization of water balance improved. Finally, the improved PnET-II model was used to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of C. lanceolata. The simulated NPP and potential distribution were combined to produce an integrated indicator, the estimated total NPP, which serves to comprehensively characterize the productivity of the forest under climate change. The results of the analysis showed that (1) the distribution of C. lanceolata will increase in central China, but the mean probability of establishment will decrease in the 2050s; (2) the PnET-II model was improved, calibrated, and successfully validated for the simulation of the NPP of C. lanceolata in China; and (3) all scenarios predicted a reduction in total NPP in the 2050s, with a markedly lower reduction under the a2 scenario than under the b2 scenario. The changes in NPP suggested that forest productivity will show a large decrease in southern China and a mild increase in central China. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function and could provide a basis for policy-makers to apply adaptive measures and overcome the unfavorable influences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23925834, year = {2013}, author = {Verberk, WC and Bilton, DT}, title = {Respiratory control in aquatic insects dictates their vulnerability to global warming.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {20130473}, pmid = {23925834}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animals ; Fresh Water ; *Global Warming ; Insecta/metabolism/*physiology ; Oxygen/metabolism ; *Respiration ; }, abstract = {Forecasting species responses to climatic warming requires knowledge of how temperature impacts may be exacerbated by other environmental stressors, hypoxia being a principal example in aquatic systems. Both stressors could interact directly as temperature affects both oxygen bioavailability and ectotherm oxygen demand. Insufficient oxygen has been shown to limit thermal tolerance in several aquatic ectotherms, although, the generality of this mechanism has been challenged for tracheated arthropods. Comparing species pairs spanning four different insect orders, we demonstrate that oxygen can indeed limit thermal tolerance in tracheates. Species that were poor at regulating oxygen uptake were consistently more vulnerable to the synergistic effects of warming and hypoxia, demonstrating the importance of respiratory control in setting thermal tolerance limits.}, }
@article {pmid23923216, year = {2013}, author = {Fischetti, M}, title = {Living in harm's way. Damage from storms will rise sharply, even without climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {309}, number = {2}, pages = {102}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0813-102}, pmid = {23923216}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Climatic Processes ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Population Density ; }, }
@article {pmid23919144, year = {2013}, author = {Paranjpe, DA and Bastiaans, E and Patten, A and Cooper, RD and Sinervo, B}, title = {Evidence of maternal effects on temperature preference in side-blotched lizards: implications for evolutionary response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {1977-1991}, pmid = {23919144}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Natural populations respond to selection pressures like increasing local temperatures in many ways, including plasticity and adaptation. To predict the response of ectotherms like lizards to local temperature increase, it is essential to estimate phenotypic variation in and determine the heritability of temperature-related traits like average field body temperature (T b) and preferred temperature (T p). We measured T p of Uta stansburiana in a laboratory thermal gradient and assessed the contribution of sex, reproductive status and throat color genotype to phenotypic variation in T b of adult lizards. Females had higher T p than males. However, they temporarily preferred lower temperature when gravid than when nongravid. Using a nested half-sib design for genetic crosses in the laboratory, we estimated relative contributions of additive genetic variation and maternal effects to T p of hatchlings. Our results show that maternal effects, but not additive genetic variation, influence T p of hatchlings in U. stansburiana. Maternal T p and the presence or absence of blue throat color alleles significantly influenced T p of hatchlings. We discuss ecological and evolutionary consequences of these maternal effects in the context of rapid climate change and natural selection that we measure on progeny survival to maturity as a function of maternal T p.}, }
@article {pmid23913552, year = {2013}, author = {Bellard, C and Thuiller, W and Leroy, B and Genovesi, P and Bakkenes, M and Courchamp, F}, title = {Will climate change promote future invasions?.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {3740-3748}, pmid = {23913552}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {281422/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environment ; *Introduced Species ; Invertebrates ; *Models, Biological ; Models, Theoretical ; Plant Dispersal ; Seasons ; Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid23909463, year = {2013}, author = {Redshaw, CH and Stahl-Timmins, WM and Fleming, LE and Davidson, I and Depledge, MH}, title = {Potential changes in disease patterns and pharmaceutical use in response to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of toxicology and environmental health. Part B, Critical reviews}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {285-320}, pmid = {23909463}, issn = {1521-6950}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/drug therapy/epidemiology/transmission ; Disease Reservoirs ; Disease Vectors ; *Drug Therapy/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Epidemiology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; }, abstract = {As climate change alters environmental conditions, the incidence and global patterns of human diseases are changing. These modifications to disease profiles and the effects upon human pharmaceutical usage are discussed. Climate-related environmental changes are associated with a rise in the incidence of chronic diseases already prevalent in the Northern Hemisphere, for example, cardiovascular disease and mental illness, leading to greater use of associated heavily used Western medications. Sufferers of respiratory diseases may exhibit exacerbated symptoms due to altered environmental conditions (e.g., pollen). Respiratory, water-borne, and food-borne toxicants and infections, including those that are vector borne, may become more common in Western countries, central and eastern Asia, and across North America. As new disease threats emerge, substantially higher pharmaceutical use appears inevitable, especially of pharmaceuticals not commonly employed at present (e.g., antiprotozoals). The use of medications for the treatment of general symptoms (e.g., analgesics) will also rise. These developments need to be viewed in the context of other major environmental changes (e.g., industrial chemical pollution, biodiversity loss, reduced water and food security) as well as marked shifts in human demographics, including aging of the population. To identify, prevent, mitigate, and adapt to potential threats, one needs to be aware of the major factors underlying changes in the use of pharmaceuticals and their subsequent release, deliberately or unintentionally, into the environment. This review explores the likely consequences of climate change upon the use of medical pharmaceuticals in the Northern Hemisphere.}, }
@article {pmid23908230, year = {2013}, author = {Altizer, S and Ostfeld, RS and Johnson, PT and Kutz, S and Harvell, CD}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {341}, number = {6145}, pages = {514-519}, doi = {10.1126/science.1239401}, pmid = {23908230}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; Extinction, Biological ; Health ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; *Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Humans ; Prognosis ; }, abstract = {Scientists have long predicted large-scale responses of infectious diseases to climate change, giving rise to a polarizing debate, especially concerning human pathogens for which socioeconomic drivers and control measures can limit the detection of climate-mediated changes. Climate change has already increased the occurrence of diseases in some natural and agricultural systems, but in many cases, outcomes depend on the form of climate change and details of the host-pathogen system. In this review, we highlight research progress and gaps that have emerged during the past decade and develop a predictive framework that integrates knowledge from ecophysiology and community ecology with modeling approaches. Future work must continue to anticipate and monitor pathogen biodiversity and disease trends in natural ecosystems and identify opportunities to mitigate the impacts of climate-driven disease emergence.}, }
@article {pmid23908229, year = {2013}, author = {Wheeler, T and von Braun, J}, title = {Climate change impacts on global food security.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {341}, number = {6145}, pages = {508-513}, doi = {10.1126/science.1239402}, pmid = {23908229}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Decision Making ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; *Hunger ; }, abstract = {Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.}, }
@article {pmid23908228, year = {2013}, author = {Moritz, C and Agudo, R}, title = {The future of species under climate change: resilience or decline?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {341}, number = {6145}, pages = {504-508}, doi = {10.1126/science.1237190}, pmid = {23908228}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Forecasting ; Mammals ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {As climates change across already stressed ecosystems, there is no doubt that species will be affected, but to what extent and which will be most vulnerable remain uncertain. The fossil record suggests that most species persisted through past climate change, whereas forecasts of future impacts predict large-scale range reduction and extinction. Many species have altered range limits and phenotypes through 20th-century climate change, but responses are highly variable. The proximate causes of species decline relative to resilience remain largely obscure; however, recent examples of climate-associated species decline can help guide current management in parallel with ongoing research.}, }
@article {pmid23908227, year = {2013}, author = {Blois, JL and Zarnetske, PL and Fitzpatrick, MC and Finnegan, S}, title = {Climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {341}, number = {6145}, pages = {499-504}, doi = {10.1126/science.1237184}, pmid = {23908227}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Forecasting ; Fossils ; Invertebrates ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses to climate change. The direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by climate change. Understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. We highlight episodes of climate change that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia by changing species' relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions. These patterns emerge repeatedly across disparate temporal and spatial scales, suggesting the possibility of similar underlying processes. Based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid23908216, year = {2013}, author = {Ash, C and Culotta, E and Fahrenkamp-Uppenbrink, J and Malakoff, D and Smith, J and Sugden, A and Vignieri, S}, title = {Natural systems in changing climates. Once and future climate change. Introduction.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {341}, number = {6145}, pages = {472-473}, doi = {10.1126/science.341.6145.472}, pmid = {23908216}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid23908197, year = {2013}, author = {Bohannon, J}, title = {Social science. Study links climate change and violence, battle ensues.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {341}, number = {6145}, pages = {444-445}, doi = {10.1126/science.341.6145.444}, pmid = {23908197}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Homicide/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Rape/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Riots/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Violence/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid23908191, year = {2013}, author = {McNutt, M}, title = {Climate change impacts.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {341}, number = {6145}, pages = {435}, doi = {10.1126/science.1243256}, pmid = {23908191}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid23907833, year = {2013}, author = {Fordham, DA and Mellin, C and Russell, BD and Akçakaya, RH and Bradshaw, CJ and Aiello-Lammens, ME and Caley, JM and Connell, SD and Mayfield, S and Shepherd, SA and Brook, BW}, title = {Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {3224-3237}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12289}, pmid = {23907833}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Gastropoda/*physiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation.}, }
@article {pmid23907174, year = {2014}, author = {Nidumolu, U and Crimp, S and Gobbett, D and Laing, A and Howden, M and Little, S}, title = {Spatio-temporal modelling of heat stress and climate change implications for the Murray dairy region, Australia.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {58}, number = {6}, pages = {1095-1108}, pmid = {23907174}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle ; *Climate Change/history ; Dairying/methods ; Forecasting ; Heat Stress Disorders/*prevention &amp; control/veterinary ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humidity/*adverse effects ; *Models, Theoretical ; New South Wales ; }, abstract = {The Murray dairy region produces approximately 1.85 billion litres of milk each year, representing about 20 % of Australia's total annual milk production. An ongoing production challenge in this region is the management of the impacts of heat stress during spring and summer. An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events due to climate change may result in additional heat stress and production losses. This paper assesses the changing nature of heat stress now, and into the future, using historical data and climate change projections for the region using the temperature humidity index (THI). Projected temperature and relative humidity changes from two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO MK3.5 and CCR-MIROC-H, have been used to calculate THI values for 2025 and 2050, and summarized as mean occurrence of, and mean length of consecutive high heat stress periods. The future climate scenarios explored show that by 2025 an additional 12-15 days (compared to 1971 to 2000 baseline data) of moderate to severe heat stress are likely across much of the study region. By 2050, larger increases in severity and occurrence of heat stress are likely (i.e. an additional 31-42 moderate to severe heat stress days compared with baseline data). This increasing trend will have a negative impact on milk production among dairy cattle in the region. The results from this study provide useful insights on the trends in THI in the region. Dairy farmers and the dairy industry could use these results to devise and prioritise adaptation options to deal with projected increases in heat stress frequency and severity.}, }
@article {pmid23905876, year = {2013}, author = {Bocedi, G and Atkins, KE and Liao, J and Henry, RC and Travis, JM and Hellmann, JJ}, title = {Effects of local adaptation and interspecific competition on species' responses to climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1297}, number = {}, pages = {83-97}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12211}, pmid = {23905876}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Ecology ; Genetic Variation ; Geography ; Phenotype ; Plants ; *Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Local adaptation and species interactions have been shown to affect geographic ranges; therefore, we need models of climate impact that include both factors. To identify possible dynamics of species when including these factors, we ran simulations of two competing species using an individual-based, coupled map-lattice model using a linear climatic gradient that varies across latitude and is warmed over time. Reproductive success is governed by an individual's adaptation to local climate as well as its location relative to global constraints. In exploratory experiments varying the strength of adaptation and competition, competition reduces genetic diversity and slows range change, although the two species can coexist in the absence of climate change and shift in the absence of competitors. We also found that one species can drive the other to extinction, sometimes long after climate change ends. Weak selection on local adaptation and poor dispersal ability also caused surfing of cooler-adapted phenotypes from the expanding margin backwards, causing loss of warmer-adapted phenotypes. Finally, geographic ranges can become disjointed, losing centrally-adapted genotypes. These initial results suggest that the interplay between local adaptation and interspecific competition can significantly influence species' responses to climate change, in a way that demands future research.}, }
@article {pmid23901098, year = {2013}, author = {Ovaskainen, O and Skorokhodova, S and Yakovleva, M and Sukhov, A and Kutenkov, A and Kutenkova, N and Shcherbakov, A and Meyke, E and Delgado, Mdel M}, title = {Community-level phenological response to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {33}, pages = {13434-13439}, pmid = {23901098}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {205905/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; Birds/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fungi/growth &amp; development ; Ice ; Insecta/growth &amp; development ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Development ; Rain ; Russia ; *Seasons ; Snow ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change may disrupt interspecies phenological synchrony, with adverse consequences to ecosystem functioning. We present here a 40-y-long time series on 10,425 dates that were systematically collected in a single Russian locality for 97 plant, 78 bird, 10 herptile, 19 insect, and 9 fungal phenological events, as well as for 77 climatic events related to temperature, precipitation, snow, ice, and frost. We show that species are shifting their phenologies at dissimilar rates, partly because they respond to different climatic factors, which in turn are shifting at dissimilar rates. Plants have advanced their spring phenology even faster than average temperature has increased, whereas migratory birds have shown more divergent responses and shifted, on average, less than plants. Phenological events of birds and insects were mainly triggered by climate cues (variation in temperature and snow and ice cover) occurring over the course of short periods, whereas many plants, herptiles, and fungi were affected by long-term climatic averages. Year-to-year variation in plants, herptiles, and insects showed a high degree of synchrony, whereas the phenological timing of fungi did not correlate with any other taxonomic group. In many cases, species that are synchronous in their year-to-year dynamics have also shifted in congruence, suggesting that climate change may have disrupted phenological synchrony less than has been previously assumed. Our results illustrate how a multidimensional change in the physical environment has translated into a community-level change in phenology.}, }
@article {pmid23901033, year = {2014}, author = {Svobodová, E and Trnka, M and Dubrovský, M and Semerádová, D and Eitzinger, J and Stěpánek, P and Zalud, Z}, title = {Determination of areas with the most significant shift in persistence of pests in Europe under climate change.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {70}, number = {5}, pages = {708-715}, doi = {10.1002/ps.3622}, pmid = {23901033}, issn = {1526-4998}, mesh = {Animals ; Aphids/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/*physiology ; Environment ; Europe ; Geography ; *Models, Theoretical ; Moths/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change on the ranges of crop pest species in Europe. The organisms included in the study were species from the family Tortricidae (Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana) and the family Pyralidae (Ostrinia nubilalis), Chrysomelidae beetles (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus) and species from the family Aphididae (Ropalosiphum padi, Sitobion avenae). Climate conditions in the year 2055 were simulated using a subset of five representative global circulation models. Model simulations using these climate change scenarios showed significant shifts in the climatic niches of the species in this study.<br><br>RESULTS: For Central Europe, the models predicted a shift in the ranges of pest species to higher altitudes and increases in the number of generations (NG) of the pests. In contrast, in the southern regions of Europe, the NG is likely to decrease owing to insufficient humidity. The ranges of species are likely to shift to the north.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Based on the ensemble-scenario mean for 2055, a climate-driven northward shift of between 3&#xb0; N (O. nubilalis) and 11&#xb0; N (L. botrana) is expected. The areas that are most sensitive to experiencing a significant increase in climate suitability for future pest persistence were identified. These areas include Central Europe, the higher altitudes of the Alps and Carpathians and areas above 55&#xb0; N.}, }
@article {pmid23900344, year = {2013}, author = {Firth, LB and Mieszkowska, N and Thompson, RC and Hawkins, SJ}, title = {Climate change and adaptational impacts in coastal systems: the case of sea defences.}, journal = {Environmental science. Processes &amp; impacts}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {1665-1670}, doi = {10.1039/c3em00313b}, pmid = {23900344}, issn = {2050-7895}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Facility Design and Construction ; Humans ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {We briefly review how coastal ecosystems are responding to and being impacted by climate change, one of the greatest challenges facing society today. In adapting to rising and stormier seas associated with climate change, coastal defence structures are proliferating and becoming dominant coastal features, particularly in urbanised areas. Whilst the primary function of these structures is to protect coastal property and infrastructure, they inevitably have a significant secondary impact on the local environment and ecosystems. In this review we outline some of the negative and positive effects of these structures on physical processes, impacts on marine species, and the novel engineering approaches that have been employed to improve the ecological value of these structures in recent years. Finally we outline guidelines for an environmentally sensitive approach to design of such structures in the marine environment.}, }
@article {pmid23899408, year = {2013}, author = {Hansen, A and Bi, L and Saniotis, A and Nitschke, M}, title = {Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {21364}, pmid = {23899408}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Emigrants and Immigrants/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Health Status Disparities ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Occupational Exposure ; *Racial Groups/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Risk Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population.<br><br>DESIGN: Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research.<br><br>RESULTS: Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries.<br><br>CONCLUSION: More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.}, }
@article {pmid23898210, year = {2013}, author = {Strauss, BH}, title = {Rapid accumulation of committed sea-level rise from global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {34}, pages = {13699-13700}, pmid = {23898210}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Ice Cover ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, }
@article {pmid23897562, year = {2013}, author = {Cheng, JJ and Berry, P}, title = {Development of key indicators to quantify the health impacts of climate change on Canadians.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {58}, number = {5}, pages = {765-775}, pmid = {23897562}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Canada/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Food Supply ; *Health Status Indicators ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Mortality/trends ; Reproducibility of Results ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at developing a list of key human health indicators for quantifying the health impacts of climate change in Canada.<br><br>METHODS: A literature review was conducted in OVID Medline to identify health morbidity and mortality indicators currently used to quantify climate change impacts. Public health frameworks and other studies of climate change indicators were reviewed to identify criteria with which to evaluate the list of proposed key indicators and a rating scale was developed. Total scores for each indicator were calculated based on the rating scale.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 77 health indicators were identified from the literature. After evaluation using the chosen criteria, 8 indicators were identified as the best for use. They include excess daily all-cause mortality due to heat, premature deaths due to air pollution (ozone and particulate matter 2.5), preventable deaths from climate change, disability-adjusted life years lost from climate change, daily all-cause mortality, daily non-accidental mortality, West Nile Disease incidence, and Lyme borreliosis incidence.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is need for further data and research related to health effect quantification in the area of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23894519, year = {2013}, author = {Crassard, R and Petraglia, MD and Drake, NA and Breeze, P and Gratuze, B and Alsharekh, A and Arbach, M and Groucutt, HS and Khalidi, L and Michelsen, N and Robin, CJ and Schiettecatte, J}, title = {Middle palaeolithic and neolithic occupations around Mundafan Palaeolake, Saudi Arabia: implications for climate change and human dispersals.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e69665}, pmid = {23894519}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Arabia ; Archaeology/*methods ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Paleontology/*methods ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {The Arabian Peninsula is a key region for understanding climate change and human occupation history in a marginal environment. The Mundafan palaeolake is situated in southern Saudi Arabia, in the Rub' al-Khali (the 'Empty Quarter'), the world's largest sand desert. Here we report the first discoveries of Middle Palaeolithic and Neolithic archaeological sites in association with the palaeolake. We associate the human occupations with new geochronological data, and suggest the archaeological sites date to the wet periods of Marine Isotope Stage 5 and the Early Holocene. The archaeological sites indicate that humans repeatedly penetrated the ameliorated environments of the Rub' al-Khali. The sites probably represent short-term occupations, with the Neolithic sites focused on hunting, as indicated by points and weaponry. Middle Palaeolithic assemblages at Mundafan support a lacustrine adaptive focus in Arabia. Provenancing of obsidian artifacts indicates that Neolithic groups at Mundafan had a wide wandering range, with transport of artifacts from distant sources.}, }
@article {pmid23894312, year = {2013}, author = {Lee, SH and Nam, KW and Jeong, JY and Yoo, SJ and Koh, YS and Lee, S and Heo, ST and Seong, SY and Lee, KH}, title = {The effects of climate change and globalization on mosquito vectors: evidence from Jeju Island, South Korea on the potential for Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) influxes and survival from Vietnam rather than Japan.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e68512}, pmid = {23894312}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Aedes/*physiology/virology ; Alphavirus Infections/transmission ; Animals ; Chikungunya Fever ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/transmission ; Dengue Virus/pathogenicity ; Insect Vectors/*physiology/virology ; Japan ; Republic of Korea ; Vietnam ; West Nile virus/pathogenicity ; Yellow Fever/transmission/virology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change affects the survival and transmission of arthropod vectors as well as the development rates of vector-borne pathogens. Increased international travel is also an important factor in the spread of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) such as dengue, West Nile, yellow fever, chikungunya, and malaria. Dengue is the most important vector-borne viral disease. An estimated 2.5 billion people are at risk of infection in the world and there are approximately 50 million dengue infections and an estimated 500,000 individuals are hospitalized with dengue haemorrhagic fever annually. The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is one of the vectors of dengue virus, and populations already exist on Jeju Island, South Korea. Currently, colder winter temperatures kill off Asian tiger mosquito populations and there is no evidence of the mosquitos being vectors for the dengue virus in this location. However, dengue virus-bearing mosquito vectors can inflow to Jeju Island from endemic area such as Vietnam by increased international travel, and this mosquito vector's survival during colder winter months will likely occur due to the effects of climate change.<br><br>METHODS AND RESULTS: In this section, we show the geographical distribution of medically important mosquito vectors such as Ae. albopictus, a vector of both dengue and chikungunya viruses; Culex pipiens, a vector of West Nile virus; and Anopheles sinensis, a vector of Plasmodium vivax, within Jeju Island, South Korea. We found a significant association between the mean temperature, amount of precipitation, and density of mosquitoes. The phylogenetic analyses show that an Ae. albopictus, collected in southern area of Jeju Island, was identical to specimens found in Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam, and not Nagasaki, Japan.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that mosquito vectors or virus-bearing vectors can transmit from epidemic regions of Southeast Asia to Jeju Island and can survive during colder winter months. Therefore, Jeju Island is no longer safe from vector borne diseases (VBDs) due to the effects of globalization and climate change, and we should immediately monitor regional climate change to identify newly emerging VBDs.}, }
@article {pmid23893550, year = {2013}, author = {Couce, E and Ridgwell, A and Hendy, EJ}, title = {Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {3592-3606}, pmid = {23893550}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Coral Reefs ; Geography ; *Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Models, Theoretical ; Seawater/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid23890483, year = {2013}, author = {Razgour, O and Juste, J and Ibáñez, C and Kiefer, A and Rebelo, H and Puechmaille, SJ and Arlettaz, R and Burke, T and Dawson, DA and Beaumont, M and Jones, G}, title = {The shaping of genetic variation in edge-of-range populations under past and future climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16}, number = {10}, pages = {1258-1266}, pmid = {23890483}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Chiroptera/genetics/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Cytochromes b/genetics ; *Genetic Variation ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; *Models, Biological ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {With rates of climate change exceeding the rate at which many species are able to shift their range or adapt, it is important to understand how future changes are likely to affect biodiversity at all levels of organisation. Understanding past responses and extent of niche conservatism in climatic tolerance can help predict future consequences. We use an integrated approach to determine the genetic consequences of past and future climate changes on a bat species, Plecotus austriacus. Glacial refugia predicted by palaeo-modelling match those identified from analyses of extant genetic diversity and model-based inference of demographic history. Former refugial populations currently contain disproportionately high genetic diversity, but niche conservatism, shifts in suitable areas and barriers to migration mean that these hotspots of genetic diversity are under threat from future climate change. Evidence of population decline despite recent northward migration highlights the need to conserve leading-edge populations for spearheading future range shifts.}, }
@article {pmid23889779, year = {2014}, author = {Rico, L and Ogaya, R and Barbeta, A and Peñuelas, J}, title = {Changes in DNA methylation fingerprint of Quercus ilex trees in response to experimental field drought simulating projected climate change.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {419-427}, doi = {10.1111/plb.12049}, pmid = {23889779}, issn = {1438-8677}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*genetics ; Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis ; Climate Change ; DNA Fingerprinting ; *DNA Methylation ; DNA, Plant/*metabolism ; *Droughts ; *Epigenesis, Genetic ; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; Genetic Loci ; Plant Leaves ; Quercus/*genetics/metabolism/physiology ; Stress, Physiological/*genetics ; Trees/genetics/physiology ; Water ; }, abstract = {Rapid genetic changes in plants have been reported in response to current climate change. We assessed the capacity of trees in a natural forest to produce rapid acclimation responses based on epigenetic modifications. We analysed natural populations of Quercus ilex, the dominant tree species of Mediterranean forests, using the methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) technique to assess patterns and levels of methylation in individuals from unstressed forest plots and from plots experimentally exposed to drought for 12 years at levels projected for the coming decades. The percentage of hypermethylated loci increased, and the percentage of fully methylated loci clearly decreased in plants exposed to drought. Multivariate analyses exploring the status of methylation at MSAP loci also showed clear differentiation depending on stress. The PCA scores for the MSAP profiles clearly separated the genetic from the epigenetic structure, and also significantly separated the samples within each group in response to drought. Changes in DNA methylation highlight the large capacity of plants to rapidly acclimate to changing environmental conditions, including trees with long life spans, and our results demonstrate those changes. These changes, although unable to prevent the decreased growth and higher mortality associated with this experimental drought, occurred together with a dampening in such decreases as the long-term treatment progressed.}, }
@article {pmid23889236, year = {2013}, author = {Kythreotis, AP and Mercer, TG and Frostick, LE}, title = {Adapting to extreme events related to natural variability and climate change: the imperative of coupling technology with strong regulation and governance.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {47}, number = {17}, pages = {9560-9566}, doi = {10.1021/es4014294}, pmid = {23889236}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Climatic Processes ; Cyclonic Storms ; Earthquakes ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Geological Phenomena ; *Government Regulation ; Technology ; Tsunamis ; Weather ; }, abstract = {In recent years there has been an increase in extreme events related to natural variability (such as earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes) and climate change (such as flooding and more extreme weather). Developing innovative technologies is crucial in making society more resilient to such events. However, little emphasis has been placed on the role of human decision-making in maximizing the positive impacts of technological developments. This is exacerbated by the lack of appropriate adaptation options and the privatization of existing infrastructure, which can leave people exposed to increasing risk. This work examines the need for more robust government regulation and legislation to complement developments and innovations in technology in order to protect communities against such extreme events.}, }
@article {pmid23883609, year = {2013}, author = {Mimura, N}, title = {Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.}, journal = {Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and biological sciences}, volume = {89}, number = {7}, pages = {281-301}, pmid = {23883609}, issn = {1349-2896}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecosystem ; *Oceans and Seas ; Social Change ; }, abstract = {Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).}, }
@article {pmid23880729, year = {2013}, author = {Chen, CC and Jenkins, E and Epp, T and Waldner, C and Curry, PS and Soos, C}, title = {Climate change and West Nile virus in a highly endemic region of North America.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {3052-3071}, pmid = {23880729}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Alberta ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Culex/*virology ; Insect Vectors/*virology ; Manitoba ; *Models, Theoretical ; Poaceae ; Population Density ; Saskatchewan ; West Nile Fever/*transmission ; West Nile virus/*isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {The Canadian prairie provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta have reported the highest human incidence of clinical cases of West Nile virus (WNV) infection in Canada. The primary vector for WVN in this region is the mosquito Culex tarsalis. This study used constructed models and biological thresholds to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of Cx. tarsalis and WNV infection rate in the prairie provinces under a range of potential future climate and habitat conditions. We selected one median and two extreme outcome scenarios to represent future climate conditions in the 2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) time slices. In currently endemic regions, the projected WNV infection rate under the median outcome scenario in 2050 raised 17.91 times (ranged from 1.29-27.45 times for all scenarios and time slices) comparing to current climate conditions. Seasonal availability of Cx. tarsalis infected with WNV extended from June to August to include May and September. Moreover, our models predicted northward range expansion for Cx. tarsalis (1.06-2.56 times the current geographic area) and WNV (1.08-2.34 times the current geographic area). These findings predict future public and animal health risk of WNV in the Canadian prairie provinces.}, }
@article {pmid23878343, year = {2013}, author = {Willis, KJ and Bennett, KD and Burrough, SL and Macias-Fauria, M and Tovar, C}, title = {Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1625}, pages = {20120491}, pmid = {23878343}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Africa ; *Biota ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Models, Biological ; Plants ; Trees ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400-500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.}, }
@article {pmid23878329, year = {2013}, author = {James, R and Washington, R and Rowell, DP}, title = {Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1625}, pages = {20120298}, pmid = {23878329}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern ; Africa, Western ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Global Warming ; Indian Ocean ; Meteorology ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Trees ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.}, }
@article {pmid23877816, year = {2014}, author = {Darbyshire, R and Webb, L and Goodwin, I and Barlow, EW}, title = {Challenges in predicting climate change impacts on pome fruit phenology.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {58}, number = {6}, pages = {1119-1133}, pmid = {23877816}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Flowers/*physiology ; Forecasting ; Fruit/physiology ; Malus/*physiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pyrus/*physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed.}, }
@article {pmid23876546, year = {2013}, author = {Ribalaygua, J and Pino, MR and Pórtoles, J and Roldán, E and Gaitán, E and Chinarro, D and Torres, L}, title = {Climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation in Aragón (Spain).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {463-464}, number = {}, pages = {1015-1030}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.06.089}, pmid = {23876546}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {By applying a two-step statistical downscaling technique to four climate models under different future emission scenarios, we produced future projections of the daily precipitation and the maximum and minimum temperatures over the Spanish region of Aragón. The reliability of the downscaling technique was assessed by a verification process involving the comparison of the downscaled reanalysis data with the observed data--the results were very good for the temperature and acceptable for the precipitation. To determine the ability of the climate models to simulate the real climate, their simulations of the past (the 20C3M output) were downscaled and then compared with the observed climate. The results are quite robust for temperature and less conclusive for the precipitation. The downscaled future projections exhibit a significant increase during the entire 21st century of the maximum and minimum temperatures for all the considered IPCC future emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1), both for mid-century (increases relative to the 1971-2000 averages between 1.5°C and 2.5°C, depending on the scenario) and for the end of the century (for the maximum temperature of approximately 3.75°C, 3.3°C, and 2.1°C for A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios respectively, and for the minimum temperature of 3.1°C, 2.75°C, and 1.75°C). The precipitation does not follow such a clear tendency (and exhibits greater uncertainties), but all the scenarios suggest a moderate decrease in rainfall for the mid-century (2-4%) and for the end of the century (4.5-5.5%). Due to the clear spatial differences in climate characteristics, we divided the studied area into five sub-regions to analyse the different changes on these areas; we determined that the high mountains (Pyrenees, Mediterranean-Oceanic transitional climate) and the lands of the Ebro River Basin (Continental sub-Mediterranean climate) will probably be the most affected.}, }
@article {pmid23876073, year = {2013}, author = {HilleRisLambers, J and Harsch, MA and Ettinger, AK and Ford, KR and Theobald, EJ}, title = {How will biotic interactions influence climate change-induced range shifts?.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1297}, number = {}, pages = {112-125}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12182}, pmid = {23876073}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Biota ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Plants ; *Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Symbiosis ; Washington ; }, abstract = {Biotic interactions present a challenge in determining whether species distributions will track climate change. Interactions with competitors, consumers, mutualists, and facilitators can strongly influence local species distributions, but few studies assess how and whether these interactions will impede or accelerate climate change-induced range shifts. In this paper, we explore how ecologists might move forward on this question. We first outline the conditions under which biotic interactions can result in range shifts that proceed faster or slower than climate velocity and result in ecological surprises. Next, we use our own work to demonstrate that experimental studies documenting the strength of biotic interactions across large environmental gradients are a critical first step for understanding whether they will influence climate change-induced range shifts. Further progress could be made by integrating results from these studies into modeling frameworks to predict how or generalize when biotic interactions mediate how changing climates influence range shifts. Finally, we argue that many more case studies like those described here are needed to explore the importance of biotic interactions during climate change-induced range shifts.}, }
@article {pmid23874787, year = {2013}, author = {Prisco, I and Carboni, M and Acosta, AT}, title = {The fate of threatened coastal dune habitats in Italy under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e68850}, pmid = {23874787}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Italy ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plants ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an "indirect" plant-species-based one and a simple "direct" one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the "direct" approach was unsatisfactory, "indirect" models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species' responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats' distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future.}, }
@article {pmid23874549, year = {2013}, author = {Grisham, BA and Boal, CW and Haukos, DA and Davis, DM and Boydston, KK and Dixon, C and Heck, WR}, title = {The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e68225}, pmid = {23874549}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Chickens/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Clutch Size ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Models, Biological ; New Mexico ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Texas ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.}, }
@article {pmid23874446, year = {2013}, author = {Úbeda, B and Di Giacomo, AS and Neiff, JJ and Loiselle, SA and Poi, AS and Gálvez, J&#xc1; and Casco, S and Cózar, A}, title = {Potential effects of climate change on the water level, flora and macro-fauna of a large neotropical wetland.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e67787}, pmid = {23874446}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Argentina ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; Tropical Climate ; *Water ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Possible consequences of climate change in one of the world's largest wetlands (Ibera, Argentina) were analysed using a multi-scale approach. Climate projections coupled to hydrological models were used to analyse variability in wetland water level throughout the current century. Two potential scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions were explored, both resulting in an increase in the inter-annual fluctuations of the water level. In the scenario with higher emissions, projections also showed a long-term negative trend in water-level. To explore the possible response of biota to such water-level changes, species-area relationships of flora and aerial censuses of macro-fauna were analysed during an extraordinary dry period. Plant species richness at the basin scale was found to be highly resistant to hydrological changes, as the large dimension of the wetland acts to buffer against the water-level variations. However, local diversity decreased significantly with low water levels, leading to the loss of ecosystem resilience to additional stressors. The analysis of macro-fauna populations suggested that wetland provides refuge, in low water periods, for the animals with high dispersal ability (aquatic and migratory birds). On the contrary, the abundance of animals with low dispersal ability (mainly herbivorous species) was negatively impacted in low water periods, probably because they are required to search for alternative resources beyond the wetland borders. This period of resource scarcity was also related to increased mortality of large mammals (e.g. marsh deer) around water bodies with high anthropogenic enrichment and cyanobacteria dominance. The synergy between recurrent climatic fluctuations and additional stressors (i.e. biological invasions, eutrophication) presents an important challenge to the conservation of neotropical wetlands in the coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid23874152, year = {2013}, author = {Vedder, O and Bouwhuis, S and Sheldon, BC}, title = {Quantitative assessment of the importance of phenotypic plasticity in adaptation to climate change in wild bird populations.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {e1001605}, pmid = {23874152}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/physiology ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Phenotype ; }, abstract = {Predictions about the fate of species or populations under climate change scenarios typically neglect adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity, the two major mechanisms by which organisms can adapt to changing local conditions. As a consequence, we have little understanding of the scope for organisms to track changing environments by in situ adaptation. Here, we use a detailed individual-specific long-term population study of great tits (Parus major) breeding in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK to parameterise a mechanistic model and thus directly estimate the rate of environmental change to which in situ adaptation is possible. Using the effect of changes in early spring temperature on temporal synchrony between birds and a critical food resource, we focus in particular on the contribution of phenotypic plasticity to population persistence. Despite using conservative estimates for evolutionary and reproductive potential, our results suggest little risk of population extinction under projected local temperature change; however, this conclusion relies heavily on the extent to which phenotypic plasticity tracks the changing environment. Extrapolating the model to a broad range of life histories in birds suggests that the importance of phenotypic plasticity for adjustment to projected rates of temperature change increases with slower life histories, owing to lower evolutionary potential. Understanding the determinants and constraints on phenotypic plasticity in natural populations is thus crucial for characterising the risks that rapidly changing environments pose for the persistence of such populations.}, }
@article {pmid23865232, year = {2013}, author = {Leroux, SJ and Larrivée, M and Boucher-Lalonde, V and Hurford, A and Zuloaga, J and Kerr, JT and Lutscher, F}, title = {Mechanistic models for the spatial spread of species under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {23}, number = {4}, pages = {815-828}, doi = {10.1890/12-1407.1}, pmid = {23865232}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; Butterflies/*physiology ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Demography ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Models, Biological ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. The most common methods for predicting the response of biodiversity to changing climate do not explicitly incorporate fundamental evolutionary and ecological processes that determine species responses to changing climate, such as reproduction, dispersal, and adaptation. We provide an overview of an emerging mechanistic spatial theory of species range shifts under climate change. This theoretical framework explicitly defines the ecological processes that contribute to species range shifts via biologically meaningful dispersal, reproductive, and climate envelope parameters. We present methods for estimating the parameters of the model with widely available species occurrence and abundance data and then apply these methods to empirical data for 12 North American butterfly species to illustrate the potential use of the theory for global change biology. The model predicts species persistence in light of current climate change and habitat loss. On average, we estimate that the climate envelopes of our study species are shifting north at a rate of 3.25 +/- 1.36 km/yr (mean +/- SD) and that our study species produce 3.46 +/- 1.39 (mean +/- SD) viable offspring per individual per year. Based on our parameter estimates, we are able to predict the relative risk of our 12 study species for lagging behind changing climate. This theoretical framework improves predictions of global change outcomes by facilitating the development and testing of hypotheses, providing mechanistic predictions of current and future range dynamics, and encouraging the adaptive integration of theory and data. The theory is ripe for future developments such as the incorporation of biotic interactions and evolution of adaptations to novel climatic conditions, and it has the potential to be a catalyst for the development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate losses of biodiversity from global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23858990, year = {2013}, author = {Andersen, SO and Halberstadt, ML and Borgford-Parnell, N}, title = {Stratospheric ozone, global warming, and the principle of unintended consequences--an ongoing science and policy success story.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {63}, number = {6}, pages = {607-647}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2013.791349}, pmid = {23858990}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Air Conditioning/history ; Animals ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Chlorofluorocarbons ; Earth, Planet ; Environment ; Environmental Exposure ; Global Warming/history/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Greenhouse Effect ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Public Policy/*history ; Refrigeration/history ; *Stratospheric Ozone ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {In 1974, Mario Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland warned that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could destroy the stratospheric ozone layer that protects Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. In the decade after scientists documented the buildup and long lifetime of CFCs in the atmosphere; found the proof that CFCs chemically decomposed in the stratosphere and catalyzed the depletion of ozone; quantified the adverse effects; and motivated the public and policymakers to take action. In 1987, 24 nations plus the European Community signed the Montreal Protocol. Today, 25 years after the Montreal Protocol was agreed, every United Nations state is a party (universal ratification of 196 governments); all parties are in compliance with the stringent controls; 98% of almost 100 ozone-depleting chemicals have been phased out worldwide; and the stratospheric ozone layer is on its way to recovery by 2065. A growing coalition of nations supports using the Montreal Protocol to phase down hydrofluorocarbons, which are ozone safe but potent greenhouse gases. Without rigorous science and international consensus, emissions of CFCs and related ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) could have destroyed up to two-thirds of the ozone layer by 2065, increasing the risk of causing millions of cancer cases and the potential loss of half of global agricultural production. Furthermore, because most, ODSs are also greenhouse gases, CFCs and related ODSs could have had the effect of the equivalent of 24-76 gigatons per year of carbon dioxide. This critical review describes the history of the science of stratospheric ozone depletion, summarizes the evolution of control measures and compliance under the Montreal Protocol and national legislation, presents a review of six separate transformations over the last 100 years in refrigeration and air conditioning (A/C) technology, and illustrates government-industry cooperation in continually improving the environmental performance of motor vehicle A/C.}, }
@article {pmid23858989, year = {2013}, author = {Eklund, AG and Hidy, GM and Watson, JG and Chow, JC}, title = {Stratospheric ozone, global warming, and the principle of unintended consequences--an ongoing science and policy success story.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {63}, number = {6}, pages = {605-606}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2013.799984}, pmid = {23858989}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; International Cooperation ; Public Policy ; *Stratospheric Ozone ; }, }
@article {pmid23858443, year = {2013}, author = {Levermann, A and Clark, PU and Marzeion, B and Milne, GA and Pollard, D and Radic, V and Robinson, A}, title = {The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {34}, pages = {13745-13750}, pmid = {23858443}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Computer Simulation ; *Global Warming ; Greenland ; *Ice Cover ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.}, }
@article {pmid23857736, year = {2013}, author = {García-Fernández, A and Iriondo, JM and Escudero, A and Aguilar, JF and Feliner, GN}, title = {Genetic patterns of habitat fragmentation and past climate-change effects in the Mediterranean high-mountain plant Armeria caespitosa (Plumbaginaceae).}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {100}, number = {8}, pages = {1641-1650}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1200653}, pmid = {23857736}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {Altitude ; Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Gene Flow ; Genetic Loci ; Genetic Structures ; *Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; Genome, Plant/*genetics ; Geography ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Plumbaginaceae/*genetics ; Spain ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Mountain plants are among the species most vulnerable to global warming, because of their isolation, narrow geographic distribution, and limited geographic range shifts. Stochastic and selective processes can act on the genome, modulating genetic structure and diversity. Fragmentation and historical processes also have a great influence on current genetic patterns, but the spatial and temporal contexts of these processes are poorly known. We aimed to evaluate the microevolutionary processes that may have taken place in Mediterranean high-mountain plants in response to changing historical environmental conditions.<br><br>METHODS: Genetic structure, diversity, and loci under selection were analyzed using AFLP markers in 17 populations distributed over the whole geographic range of Armeria caespitosa, an endemic plant that inhabits isolated mountains (Sierra de Guadarrama, Spain). Differences in altitude, geographic location, and climate conditions were considered in the analyses, because they may play an important role in selective and stochastic processes.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Bayesian clustering approaches identified nine genetic groups, although some discrepancies in assignment were found between alternative analyses. Spatially explicit analyses showed a weak relationship between genetic parameters and spatial or environmental distances. However, a large proportion of outlier loci were detected, and some outliers were related to environmental variables.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A. caespitosa populations exhibit spatial patterns of genetic structure that cannot be explained by the isolation-by-distance model. Shifts along the altitude gradient in response to Pleistocene climatic oscillations and environmentally mediated selective forces might explain the resulting structure and genetic diversity values found.}, }
@article {pmid23855531, year = {2013}, author = {Schmitz, OJ}, title = {Global climate change and the evolutionary ecology of ecosystem functioning.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1297}, number = {}, pages = {61-72}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12181}, pmid = {23855531}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; Carbohydrates ; Carbon/chemistry ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Food ; Food Chain ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/chemistry ; Plants/chemistry ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Environmental warming due to global climate change is an important stressor that stands to alter organismal physiology and, ultimately, carbon cycling in ecosystems. Yet the theoretical framework for predicting warming effects on whole-ecosystem carbon balance by way of changes in organismal physiology remains rudimentary. This is because ecosystem science has yet to embrace principles of evolutionary ecology that offer the means to explain how environmental stress on organisms mediates ecosystem carbon dynamics. Here, using selected case studies and a theoretical model, I sketch out one framework that shows how increases in animal metabolic rates in response to thermal stress lead to phenotypically plastic shifts in animal elemental demand, from nitrogen-rich proteins that support production to carbon-rich soluble carbohydrates that support elevated energy demands. I further show how such a switch in resource selection alters the fate of carbon between atmospheric versus animal, plant, and soil pools. The framework shows that animals, despite having relatively low biomass representation in ecosystems, can nonetheless have disproportionately larger effects on carbon cycling in ecosystems whose effects are exacerbated by environmental stressors like climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid23849794, year = {2013}, author = {Stephenson, J and Crane, SF and Levy, C and Maslin, M}, title = {Population, development, and climate change: links and effects on human health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {382}, number = {9905}, pages = {1665-1673}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61460-9}, pmid = {23849794}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Congresses as Topic ; Cooperative Behavior ; Economic Development ; Environmental Pollution ; *Global Health ; Humans ; London ; *Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Global health, population growth, economic development, environmental degradation, and climate change are the main challenges we face in the 21st century. However, because the academics, non-governmental organisations, and policy makers in these specialties work within separate communities, our understanding of the associations between them is restricted. We organised an international symposium in May, 2011 in London, UK, for academics and technical experts from population, developmental, and environmental science to encourage debate and collaboration between these disciplines. The conference provided the impetus for this Review, which describes, in historical context, key events and fundamental intercommunity debates from the perspectives of population, development, and climate change communities. We consider the interconnections between population, development, and climate change and their effects on health, including new analysis of longstanding debates, and identify opportunities for effective collaboration on shared goals.}, }
@article {pmid23847202, year = {2013}, author = {Smith, KR and Desai, MA and Rogers, JV and Houghton, RA}, title = {Joint CO2 and CH4 accountability for global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {31}, pages = {E2865-74}, pmid = {23847202}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/*analysis ; }, abstract = {We propose a transparent climate debt index incorporating both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We develop national historic emissions databases for both greenhouse gases to 2005, justifying 1950 as the starting point for global perspectives. We include CO2 emissions from fossil sources [CO2(f)], as well as, in a separate analysis, land use change and forestry. We calculate the CO2(f) and CH4 remaining in the atmosphere in 2005 from 205 countries using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report impulse response functions. We use these calculations to estimate the fraction of remaining global emissions due to each country, which is applied to total radiative forcing in 2005 to determine the combined climate debt from both greenhouse gases in units of milliwatts per square meter per country or microwatts per square meter per person, a metric we term international natural debt (IND). Australia becomes the most indebted large country per capita because of high CH4 emissions, overtaking the United States, which is highest for CO2(f). The differences between the INDs of developing and developed countries decline but remain large. We use IND to assess the relative reduction in IND from choosing between CO2(f) and CH4`control measures and to contrast the imposed versus experienced health impacts from climate change. Based on 2005 emissions, the same hypothetical impact on world 2050 IND could be achieved by decreasing CH4 emissions by 46% as stopping CO2 emissions entirely, but with substantial differences among countries, implying differential optimal strategies. Adding CH4 shifts the basic narrative about differential international accountability for climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23846828, year = {2013}, author = {Yan, C and Stenseth, NC and Krebs, CJ and Zhang, Z}, title = {Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {11}, pages = {3263-3271}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12321}, pmid = {23846828}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Hares/*physiology ; Lynx/*physiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {The classic 10-year population cycle of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben 1777) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis, Kerr 1792) in the boreal forests of North America has drawn much attention from both population and community ecologists worldwide; however, the ecological mechanisms driving the 10-year cyclic dynamic pattern are not fully revealed yet. In this study, by the use of historic fur harvest data, we constructed a series of generalized additive models to study the effects of density dependence, predation, and climate (both global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and northern hemispheric temperature (NHT) and local weather data including temperature, rainfall, and snow). We identified several key pathways from global and local climate to lynx with various time lags: rainfall shows a negative, and snow shows a positive effect on lynx; NHT and NAO negatively affect lynx through their positive effect on rainfall and negative effect on snow; SOI positively affects lynx through its negative effect on rainfall. Direct or delayed density dependency effects, the prey effect of hare on lynx and a 2-year delayed negative effect of lynx on hare (defined as asymmetric predation) were found. The simulated population dynamics is well fitted to the observed long-term fluctuations of hare and lynx populations. Through simulation, we find density dependency and asymmetric predation, only producing damped oscillation, are necessary but not sufficient factors in causing the observed 10-year cycles; while extrinsic climate factors are important in producing and modifying the sustained cycles. Two recent population declines of lynx (1940-1955 and after 1980) were likely caused by ongoing climate warming indirectly. Our results provide an alternative explanation to the mechanism of the 10-year cycles, and there is a need for further investigation on links between disappearance of population cycles and global warming in hare-lynx system.}, }
@article {pmid23846642, year = {2013}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Climate change: The forecast for 2018 is cloudy with record heat.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {499}, number = {7457}, pages = {139-141}, pmid = {23846642}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forecasting/*methods ; Global Warming/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hot Temperature ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Reproducibility of Results ; Seawater/chemistry ; Time Factors ; *Uncertainty ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid23842625, year = {2013}, author = {Clark, TD and Sandblom, E and Jutfelt, F}, title = {Aerobic scope measurements of fishes in an era of climate change: respirometry, relevance and recommendations.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {216}, number = {Pt 15}, pages = {2771-2782}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.084251}, pmid = {23842625}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Aerobiosis ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/*physiology ; Physiology/*methods ; *Respiration ; }, abstract = {Measurements of aerobic scope [the difference between minimum and maximum oxygen consumption rate (and , respectively)] are increasing in prevalence as a tool to address questions relating to fish ecology and the effects of climate change. However, there are underlying issues regarding the array of methods used to measure aerobic scope across studies and species. In an attempt to enhance quality control before the diversity of issues becomes too great to remedy, this paper outlines common techniques and pitfalls associated with measurements of , and aerobic scope across species and under different experimental conditions. Additionally, we provide a brief critique of the oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) hypothesis, a concept that is intricately dependent on aerobic scope measurements and is spreading wildly throughout the literature despite little evidence for its general applicability. It is the intention of this paper to encourage transparency and accuracy in future studies that measure the aerobic metabolism of fishes, and to highlight the fundamental issues with assuming broad relevance of the OCLTT hypothesis.}, }
@article {pmid23840721, year = {2013}, author = {Knutsen, H and Jorde, PE and Gonzalez, EB and Robalo, J and Albretsen, J and Almada, V}, title = {Climate Change and Genetic Structure of Leading Edge and Rear End Populations in a Northwards Shifting Marine Fish Species, the Corkwing Wrasse (Symphodus melops).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e67492}, pmid = {23840721}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Fishes/*genetics ; *Gene Flow ; *Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; *Microsatellite Repeats ; North Sea ; }, abstract = {One mechanism by which marine organisms may respond to climate shifts is range shifts. The corkwing wrasse (Symphodus melops) is a temperate fish species, inhabiting the coasts of Europe, that show strong indications of current as well as historical (ice-age) range shifts towards the north. Nine neutral microsatellite DNA markers were screened to study genetic signatures and spatial population structure over the entire geographic and thermal gradient of the species from Portugal to Norway. A major genetic break (F ST = 0.159 average among pairs) was identified between Scandinavian and more southern populations, with a marked reduction (30% or more) in levels of genetic variability in Scandinavia. The break is probably related to bottleneck(s) associated with post-glacial colonization of the Scandinavian coasts, and indicates a lack of present gene flow across the North Sea. The lack of gene flow can most likely be attributed to the species' need for rocky substrate for nesting and a relatively short pelagic larval phase, limiting dispersal by ocean currents. These findings demonstrate that long-distance dispersal may be severely limited in the corkwing wrasse, and that successful range-shifts following present climate change may be problematic for this and other species with limited dispersal abilities, even in the seemingly continuous marine environment.}, }
@article {pmid23840330, year = {2013}, author = {Muñoz, AR and Márquez, AL and Real, R}, title = {Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e65462}, pmid = {23840330}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Eagles ; *Endangered Species ; Logistic Models ; Models, Biological ; Spain ; }, abstract = {To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.}, }
@article {pmid23836788, year = {2013}, author = {Gauthier, G and Bêty, J and Cadieux, MC and Legagneux, P and Doiron, M and Chevallier, C and Lai, S and Tarroux, A and Berteaux, D}, title = {Long-term monitoring at multiple trophic levels suggests heterogeneity in responses to climate change in the Canadian Arctic tundra.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1624}, pages = {20120482}, pmid = {23836788}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Arvicolinae/*physiology ; Birds/*physiology ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; Foxes/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Arctic wildlife is often presented as being highly at risk in the face of current climate warming. We use the long-term (up to 24 years) monitoring records available on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic to examine temporal trends in population attributes of several terrestrial vertebrates and in primary production. Despite a warming trend (e.g. cumulative annual thawing degree-days increased by 37% and snow-melt date advanced by 4-7 days over a 23-year period), we found little evidence for changes in the phenology, abundance or productivity of several vertebrate species (snow goose, foxes, lemmings, avian predators and one passerine). Only primary production showed a response to warming (annual above-ground biomass of wetland graminoids increased by 123% during this period). We nonetheless found evidence for potential mismatches between herbivores and their food plants in response to warming as snow geese adjusted their laying date by only 3.8 days on average for a change in snow-melt of 10 days, half of the corresponding adjustment shown by the timing of plant growth (7.1 days). We discuss several reasons (duration of time series, large annual variability, amplitude of observed climate change, nonlinear dynamic or constraints imposed by various rate of warming with latitude in migrants) to explain the lack of response by herbivores and predators to climate warming at our study site. We also show how length and intensity of monitoring could affect our ability to detect temporal trends and provide recommendations for future monitoring.}, }
@article {pmid23834841, year = {2014}, author = {Woodward, M and Kapelan, Z and Gouldby, B}, title = {Adaptive Flood Risk Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty Using Real Options and Optimization.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {75-92}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12088}, pmid = {23834841}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {*Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Decision Making ; *Floods/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; London ; Risk Assessment/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Risk Management/economics/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Rivers ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex. All these elements pose severe difficulties to decisionmakers. This article describes a decision support methodology that has the capability to assess the most appropriate set of interventions to make in a flood system and the opportune time to make these interventions, given the future uncertainties. The flood risk strategies have been explicitly designed to allow for flexible adaptive measures by capturing the concepts of real options and multiobjective optimization to evaluate potential flood risk management opportunities. A state-of-the-art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time and a multiobjective genetic algorithm is utilized to search for the optimal adaptive strategies. The modeling system has been applied to a reach on the Thames Estuary (London, England), and initial results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous, while the outputs provide decisionmakers with supplementary knowledge that previously has not been considered.}, }
@article {pmid23833109, year = {2013}, author = {Young, N}, title = {Working the fringes: The role of letters to the editor in advancing non-standard media narratives about climate change.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {443-459}, doi = {10.1177/0963662511414983}, pmid = {23833109}, issn = {0963-6625}, abstract = {This article examines the role of letters to the editor in advancing and sustaining non-standard narratives about climate change in the print media. The letters page is a unique section of the newspaper that is subject to distinct functional and normative pressures. It is also a place where standard media norms are weakest and non-journalistic narratives have an opportunity to leak in. Using research into climate change coverage in eight major Canadian dailies in 2007-2008, the article employs content analysis and critical discourse analysis to examine how letters advance fringe arguments into the print media landscape that would not stand up to regular journalistic scrutiny. While these arguments come from all sides of the issue, it is argued that letters are particularly important for establishing and legitimizing conservative-skeptical perspectives on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23833108, year = {2013}, author = {Takahashi, B and Meisner, M}, title = {Climate change in Peruvian newspapers: The role of foreign voices in a context of vulnerability.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {427-442}, doi = {10.1177/0963662511431204}, pmid = {23833108}, issn = {0963-6625}, abstract = {Media coverage of climate change has been an area of continued research during the last years, mostly with a focus on developed countries. This study attempts to contribute to this body of work by analyzing the coverage in a developing country. The study presents a content analysis of newspaper coverage of climate change in Peru through the study of frames, geographical focus, and climate change strategies (mitigation/adaptation). Additionally, the role of foreign voices is assessed by comparing the coverage by Peruvian reporters with the coverage by wire services, and by determining the types of sources present in the articles. Results show a prevalence of an effects frame, followed by a politics frame. Also, the study found a significant amount of stories originating from wire services. In general, coverage prioritizes mitigation strategies and policies while providing limited attention to adaptation, which can be insufficient for a highly vulnerable country.}, }
@article {pmid23833106, year = {2013}, author = {Hobson, K and Niemeyer, S}, title = {"What sceptics believe": The effects of information and deliberation on climate change scepticism.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {396-412}, doi = {10.1177/0963662511430459}, pmid = {23833106}, issn = {0963-6625}, abstract = {Scepticism about climate change now appears a pervasive social phenomenon. Research to date has examined the different forms that scepticism can take, from outright denial to general uncertainty. Less is known about what climate sceptics value and believe beyond their climate change doubt, as well as how "entrenched" such beliefs are. In response, this paper discusses research into public reactions to projected climate change in the Australian Capital Region. Using Q Methodology and qualitative data, it outlines five discourses of scepticism and explores the impact regional-scale climate scenarios and a deliberative forum had on these discourses. Results show that both forms of intervention stimulate "discourse migration" amongst research participants. However, migrations are rarely sustained, and sceptical positions are infrequently dispelled outright, suggesting the relationship between climate scepticism, broader beliefs, and the methods used to inform and debate about climate change, are pivotal to comprehending and addressing this issue.}, }
@article {pmid23833105, year = {2013}, author = {Vainio, A and Paloniemi, R}, title = {Does belief matter in climate change action?.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {382-395}, doi = {10.1177/0963662511410268}, pmid = {23833105}, issn = {0963-6625}, abstract = {We studied environmental action and its predictors in a multi-scalar context of climate change politics. We asked how belief in climate change, post-materialist values, trust and knowledge predict people's engagement in environmental action by testing two alternative structural equation models (SEM). In one of these models all these factors directly predicted climate-friendly action, and in the other the effect of political trust, post-materialist values and climate change knowledge on climate-friendly action was mediated by belief in climate change. The models were tested with Eurobarometer 69.2 survey data of adult people living in Finland (N = 1,004). The SEM revealed that belief in climate change mediates the effect of post-material values, trust and knowledge on climate-friendly action. It is therefore important to recognize the role of belief in the public understanding of large-scale environmental problems. These results help political authorities to develop policies to encourage people's engagement in climate-friendly action.}, }
@article {pmid23832882, year = {2013}, author = {Smith, N and Joffe, H}, title = {How the public engages with global warming: A social representations approach.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {16-32}, doi = {10.1177/0963662512440913}, pmid = {23832882}, issn = {0963-6625}, abstract = {The present study utilises social representations theory to explore common sense conceptualisations of global warming risk using an in-depth, qualitative methodology. Fifty-six members of a British, London-based 2008 public were initially asked to draw or write four spontaneous "first thoughts or feelings" about global warming. These were then explored via an open-ended, exploratory interview. The analysis revealed that first thoughts, either drawn or written, often mirrored the images used by the British press to depict global warming visually. Thus in terms of media framings, it was their visual rather than their textual content that was spontaneously available for their audiences. Furthermore, an in-depth exploration of interview data revealed that global warming was structured around three themata: self/other, natural/unnatural and certainty/uncertainty, reflecting the complex and often contradictory nature of common sense thinking in relation to risk issues.}, }
@article {pmid23830922, year = {2014}, author = {Fuhrer, J and Smith, P and Gobiet, A}, title = {Implications of climate change scenarios for agriculture in alpine regions--a case study in the Swiss Rhone catchment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {493}, number = {}, pages = {1232-1241}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.06.038}, pmid = {23830922}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Forecasting ; Rivers ; Switzerland ; Water Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Coping with climate change in agriculture requires knowledge of trends in agro-climatic conditions with a focus at the smaller scales where decisions are taken. As part of the EU FP7 ACQWA project, the situation was analyzed for agriculture in the case of the Swiss Rhone catchment (Valais) where cultivation of permanent crops (orchards and vineyards) and livestock production are the most important agro-economic activities. The aim of this study was to use daily data from four downscaled and bias corrected transient climate change scenarios to analyze changes in water and temperature related indices over the period 1951-2050 for three locations (Aigle, Sion, Montana) that are representative of different production zones in the catchment. The results indicate that most relevant implications are caused by projected changes in temperature and not in precipitation. They indicate an extension of the thermal growing season with potentially positive effects on pasture and livestock production, most pronounced at the mountain site (Montana), but a trend towards increasing risks of frost in permanent crops and in heat stress for livestock at the valley bottom (Aigle, Sion). The increase in water requirement for irrigation in 2021-2050 relative to 1981-2009 is moderate (4-16%, depending on location). However, in years with low amounts of snow and rain, in small catchments with a nival regime, reduced water supply by rivers could restrict the surface area of grassland that can be irrigated, particularly during springtime. It is concluded that coping with heat-related risks may be most needed at the lower cropland and pasture sites while water-related issues would become more relevant in more elevated locations where pasture-based livestock production is the dominant type of agricultural land use.}, }
@article {pmid23828337, year = {2013}, author = {Nehren, U and Kirchner, A and Sattler, D and Turetta, AP and Heinrich, J}, title = {Impact of natural climate change and historical land use on landscape development in the Atlantic Forest of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {85}, number = {2}, pages = {497-518}, doi = {10.1590/S0001-37652013000200004}, pmid = {23828337}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Climate variations and historical land use had a major impact on landscape development in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (Mata Atlântica). In southeast Brazil, rainforest expanded under warm-humid climate conditions in the late Holocene, but have been dramatically reduced in historical times. Nevertheless, the numerous remaining forest fragments are of outstanding biological richness. In our research in the Atlantic Forest of Rio de Janeiro we aim at the reconstruction of the late Quaternary landscape evolution and an assessment of human impact on landscapes and rainforests. In this context, special focus is given on (a) effects of climate variations on vegetation cover, soil development, and geomorphological processes, and (b) spatial and temporal land use and landscape degradation patterns. In this paper we present some new results of our interdisciplinary research in the Serra dos Órgãos mountain range, state of Rio de Janeiro.}, }
@article {pmid23826735, year = {2013}, author = {Wan, Y and Schwaninger, HR and Baldo, AM and Labate, JA and Zhong, GY and Simon, CJ}, title = {A phylogenetic analysis of the grape genus (Vitis L.) reveals broad reticulation and concurrent diversification during neogene and quaternary climate change.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {141}, pmid = {23826735}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Fossils ; Genetic Variation ; *Phylogeny ; Plant Proteins/genetics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Vitis/*classification/*genetics ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Grapes are one of the most economically important fruit crops. There are about 60 species in the genus Vitis. The phylogenetic relationships among these species are of keen interest for the conservation and use of this germplasm. We selected 309 accessions from 48 Vitis species,varieties, and outgroups, examined ~11 kb (~3.4 Mb total) of aligned nuclear DNA sequences from 27 unlinked genes in a phylogenetic context, and estimated divergence times based on fossil calibrations.<br><br>RESULTS: Vitis formed a strongly supported clade. There was substantial support for species and less for the higher-level groupings (series). As estimated from extant taxa, the crown age of Vitis was 28 Ma and the divergence of subgenera (Vitis and Muscadinia) occurred at ~18 Ma. Higher clades in subgenus Vitis diverged 16 - 5 Ma with overlapping confidence intervals, and ongoing divergence formed extant species at 12 - 1.3 Ma. Several species had species-specific SNPs. NeighborNet analysis showed extensive reticulation at the core of subgenus Vitis representing the deeper nodes, with extensive reticulation radiating outward. Fitch Parsimony identified North America as the origin of the most recent common ancestor of extant Vitis species.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Phylogenetic patterns suggested origination of the genus in North America, fragmentation of an ancestral range during the Miocene, formation of extant species in the late Miocene-Pleistocene, and differentiation of species in the context of Pliocene-Quaternary tectonic and climatic change. Nuclear SNPs effectively resolved relationships at and below the species level in grapes and rectified several misclassifications of accessions in the repositories. Our results challenge current higher-level classifications, reveal the abundance of genetic diversity in the genus that is potentially available for crop improvement, and provide a valuable resource for species delineation, germplasm conservation and use.}, }
@article {pmid23825552, year = {2013}, author = {Gingold, R and Moens, T and Rocha-Olivares, A}, title = {Assessing the Response of Nematode Communities to Climate Change-Driven Warming: A Microcosm Experiment.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e66653}, pmid = {23825552}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Nematoda/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Biodiversity has diminished over the past decades with climate change being among the main responsible factors. One consequence of climate change is the increase in sea surface temperature, which, together with long exposure periods in intertidal areas, may exceed the tolerance level of benthic organisms. Benthic communities may suffer structural changes due to the loss of species or functional groups, putting ecological services at risk. In sandy beaches, free-living marine nematodes usually are the most abundant and diverse group of intertidal meiofauna, playing an important role in the benthic food web. While apparently many functionally similar nematode species co-exist temporally and spatially, experimental results on selected bacterivore species suggest no functional overlap, but rather an idiosyncratic contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, we hypothesize that functional redundancy is more likely to observe when taking into account the entire diversity of natural assemblages. We conducted a microcosm experiment with two natural communities to assess their stress response to elevated temperature. The two communities differed in diversity (high [HD] vs. low [LD]) and environmental origin (harsh vs. moderate conditions). We assessed their stress resistance to the experimental treatment in terms of species and diversity changes, and their function in terms of abundance, biomass, and trophic diversity. According to the Insurance Hypothesis, we hypothesized that the HD community would cope better with the stressful treatment due to species functional overlap, whereas the LD community functioning would benefit from species better adapted to harsh conditions. Our results indicate no evidence of functional redundancy in the studied nematofaunal communities. The species loss was more prominent and size specific in the HD; large predators and omnivores were lost, which may have important consequences for the benthic food web. Yet, we found evidence for alternative diversity-ecosystem functioning relationships, such as the Rivets and the Idiosyncrasy Model.}, }
@article {pmid23825290, year = {2013}, author = {Hart, PS}, title = {The role of numeracy in moderating the influence of statistics in climate change messages.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {785-798}, doi = {10.1177/0963662513482268}, pmid = {23825290}, issn = {0963-6625}, abstract = {In recent years, researchers have examined how numerical ability may moderate an individual's response to different types of numeric information, but there is scant research examining how numerical ability may moderate responses to non-numeric vs. numeric information. The present study uses an experiment (complete data for 120 participants) to examine a moderated-mediation model that tests how numeracy may moderate the impact of numeric and non-numeric descriptions of climate change risks on worry and concern for victims, which may, in turn, impact willingness to donate to relevant organizations. The inclusion of numeric instead of non-numeric descriptors significantly increased both concern for victims and willingness to donate for low numerate individuals while there was no difference for highly numerate individuals.}, }
@article {pmid23825288, year = {2014}, author = {Greenhill, M and Leviston, Z and Leonard, R and Walker, I}, title = {Assessing climate change beliefs: Response effects of question wording and response alternatives.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {23}, number = {8}, pages = {947-965}, doi = {10.1177/0963662513480117}, pmid = {23825288}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Attitude ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Language ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Politics ; *Public Opinion ; Reproducibility of Results ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {To date, there is no 'gold standard' on how to best measure public climate change beliefs. We report a study (N = 897) testing four measures of climate change causation beliefs, drawn from four sources: the CSIRO, Griffith University, the Gallup poll, and the Newspoll. We found that question wording influences the outcome of beliefs reported. Questions that did not allow respondents to choose the option of believing in an equal mix of natural and anthropogenic climate change obtained different results to those that included the option. Age and belief groups were found to be important predictors of how consistent people were in reporting their beliefs. Response consistency gave some support to past findings suggesting climate change beliefs reflect something deeper in the individual belief system. Each belief question was assessed against five criterion variables commonly used in climate change literature. Implications for future studies are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid23825287, year = {2014}, author = {Hmielowski, JD and Feldman, L and Myers, TA and Leiserowitz, A and Maibach, E}, title = {An attack on science? Media use, trust in scientists, and perceptions of global warming.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {23}, number = {7}, pages = {866-883}, doi = {10.1177/0963662513480091}, pmid = {23825287}, issn = {1361-6609}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Male ; *Mass Media ; Middle Aged ; Politics ; *Public Opinion ; *Science ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Trust ; United States ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {There is a growing divide in how conservatives and liberals in the USA understand the issue of global warming. Prior research suggests that the American public's reliance on partisan media contributes to this gap. However, researchers have yet to identify intervening variables to explain the relationship between media use and public opinion about global warming. Several studies have shown that trust in scientists is an important heuristic many people use when reporting their opinions on science-related topics. Using within-subject panel data from a nationally representative sample of Americans, this study finds that trust in scientists mediates the effect of news media use on perceptions of global warming. Results demonstrate that conservative media use decreases trust in scientists which, in turn, decreases certainty that global warming is happening. By contrast, use of non-conservative media increases trust in scientists, which, in turn, increases certainty that global warming is happening.}, }
@article {pmid23825264, year = {2014}, author = {Wibeck, V}, title = {Social representations of climate change in Swedish lay focus groups: local or distant, gradual or catastrophic?.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {204-219}, doi = {10.1177/0963662512462787}, pmid = {23825264}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Attitude ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; Female ; *Focus Groups ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Public Opinion ; *Social Perception ; Sweden ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {This paper explores social representations of climate change, investigating how climate change is discussed by Swedish laypeople interacting in focus group interviews. The analysis focuses on prototypical examples and metaphors, which were key devices for objectifying climate change representations. The paper analyzes how the interaction of focus group participants with other speakers, ideas, arguments, and broader social representations shaped their representations of climate change. Climate change was understood as a global but distant issue with severe consequences. There was a dynamic tension between representations of climate change as a gradual vs. unpredictable process. Implications for climate change communication are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid23825247, year = {2014}, author = {Bowe, BJ and Oshita, T and Terracina-Hartman, C and Chao, WC}, title = {Framing of climate change in newspaper coverage of the East Anglia e-mail scandal.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {157-169}, doi = {10.1177/0963662512449949}, pmid = {23825247}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Computer Security ; *Electronic Mail ; Humans ; *Newspapers as Topic ; *Public Opinion ; Reproducibility of Results ; Research Report/*standards ; United Kingdom ; United States ; }, abstract = {In late 2009, a series of e-mails related to climate research were made public following the hacking into a server and the e-mail accounts of researchers at the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit. According to some skeptics of climate change research, the content of those e-mails suggested data were being manipulated, while climate scientists said their words were taken out of context. The news coverage of this scandal provides an opportunity to consider media framing. This study has two aims: to extend previous research using a cluster analysis technique to discern frames in media texts; and to provide insight into newspaper coverage of the scandal, which is often referred to as "Climategate." This study examines the frames present in two British and two American newspapers' coverage of the issue.}, }
@article {pmid23825246, year = {2014}, author = {Buys, L and Aird, R and van Megen, K and Miller, E and Sommerfeld, J}, title = {Perceptions of climate change and trust in information providers in rural Australia.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {170-188}, doi = {10.1177/0963662512449948}, pmid = {23825246}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Cluster Analysis ; *Communication ; Female ; Humans ; *Information Dissemination ; Interpersonal Relations ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Public Opinion ; Risk Factors ; Rural Population ; *Social Perception ; *Trust ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Disagreement within the global science community about the certainty and causes of climate change has led the general public to question what to believe and whom to trust on matters related to this issue. This paper reports on qualitative research undertaken with Australian residents from two rural areas to explore their perceptions of climate change and trust in information providers. While overall, residents tended to agree that climate change is a reality, perceptions varied in terms of its causes and how best to address it. Politicians, government, and the media were described as untrustworthy sources of information about climate change, with independent scientists being the most trusted. The vested interests of information providers appeared to be a key reason for their distrust. The findings highlight the importance of improved transparency and consultation with the public when communicating information about climate change and related policies.}, }
@article {pmid23825212, year = {2013}, author = {Buckley, LB and Tewksbury, JJ and Deutsch, CA}, title = {Can terrestrial ectotherms escape the heat of climate change by moving?.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {280}, number = {1765}, pages = {20131149}, pmid = {23825212}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Insecta/*classification/*physiology ; *Movement ; }, abstract = {Whether movement will enable organisms to alleviate thermal stress is central to the biodiversity implications of climate change. We use the temperature-dependence of ectotherm performance to investigate the fitness consequences of movement. Movement to an optimal location within a 50 km radius will only offset the fitness impacts of climate change by 2100 in 5 per cent of locations globally. Random movement carries an 87 per cent risk of further fitness detriment. Mountainous regions with high temperature seasonality (i.e. temperate areas) not only offer the greatest benefit from optimal movement but also the most severe fitness consequences if an organism moves to the wrong location. Doubling dispersal capacity would provide modest benefit exclusively to directed dispersers in topographically diverse areas. The benefits of movement for escaping climate change are particularly limited in the tropics, where fitness impacts will be most severe. The potential of movement to lessen climate change impacts may have been overestimated.}, }
@article {pmid23825134, year = {2013}, author = {Gornish, ES and Tylianakis, JM}, title = {Community shifts under climate change: mechanisms at multiple scales.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {100}, number = {7}, pages = {1422-1434}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1300046}, pmid = {23825134}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/*classification ; Rain ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Processes that drive ecological dynamics differ across spatial scales. Therefore, the pathways through which plant communities and plant-insect relationships respond to changing environmental conditions are also expected to be scale-dependent. Furthermore, the processes that affect individual species or interactions at single sites may differ from those affecting communities across multiple sites.<br><br>METHODS: We reviewed and synthesized peer-reviewed literature to identify patterns in biotic or abiotic pathways underpinning changes in the composition and diversity of plant communities under three components of climate change (increasing temperature, CO2, and changes in precipitation) and how these differ across spatial scales. We also explored how these changes to plants affect plant-insect interactions.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: The relative frequency of biotic vs. abiotic pathways of climate effects at larger spatial scales often differ from those at smaller scales. Local-scale studies show variable responses to climate drivers, often driven by biotic factors. However, larger scale studies identify changes to species composition and/or reduced diversity as a result of abiotic factors. Differing pathways of climate effects can result from different responses of multiple species, habitat effects, and differing effects of invasions at local vs. regional to global scales. Plant community changes can affect higher trophic levels as a result of spatial or phenological mismatch, foliar quality changes, and plant abundance changes, though studies on plant-insect interactions at larger scales are rare.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate-induced changes to plant communities will have considerable effects on community-scale trophic exchanges, which may differ from the responses of individual species or pairwise interactions.}, }
@article {pmid23824203, year = {2013}, author = {Blatt, M}, title = {Associate editor Graham Farquhar receives honors for his research in plant physiology and climate change.}, journal = {Plant physiology}, volume = {162}, number = {3}, pages = {1213}, doi = {10.1104/pp.113.900466}, pmid = {23824203}, issn = {1532-2548}, mesh = {*Awards and Prizes ; *Climate Change ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Research ; }, }
@article {pmid23823552, year = {2013}, author = {Bendel, D and Beck, F and Dittmer, U}, title = {Modeling climate change impacts on combined sewer overflow using synthetic precipitation time series.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {68}, number = {1}, pages = {160-166}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2013.236}, pmid = {23823552}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Sewage ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/*methods ; }, abstract = {In the presented study climate change impacts on combined sewer overflows (CSOs) in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Southern Germany, were assessed based on continuous long-term rainfall-runoff simulations. As input data, synthetic rainfall time series were used. The applied precipitation generator NiedSim-Klima accounts for climate change effects on precipitation patterns. Time series for the past (1961-1990) and future (2041-2050) were generated for various locations. Comparing the simulated CSO activity of both periods we observe significantly higher overflow frequencies for the future. Changes in overflow volume and overflow duration depend on the type of overflow structure. Both values will increase at simple CSO structures that merely divide the flow, whereas they will decrease when the CSO structure is combined with a storage tank. However, there is a wide variation between the results of different precipitation time series (representative for different locations).}, }
@article {pmid23823535, year = {2013}, author = {Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K and Willems, P and Olsson, J and Beecham, S and Pathirana, A and Bülow Gregersen, I and Madsen, H and Nguyen, VT}, title = {Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: a review.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {68}, number = {1}, pages = {16-28}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2013.251}, pmid = {23823535}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Drainage, Sanitary ; *Rain ; }, abstract = {A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of how to describe precipitation patterns in a changing climate in order to design and operate urban drainage infrastructure. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future.}, }
@article {pmid23822794, year = {2013}, author = {Juliusson, G}, title = {Globalization, climate change, and human health.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {369}, number = {1}, pages = {95-96}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMc1305749}, pmid = {23822794}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; *Internationality ; }, }
@article {pmid23822793, year = {2013}, author = {Rossati, A and Bargiacchi, O and Garavelli, PL}, title = {Globalization, climate change, and human health.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {369}, number = {1}, pages = {95}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMc1305749}, pmid = {23822793}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; *Internationality ; }, }
@article {pmid23822792, year = {2013}, author = {Davis, CE}, title = {Globalization, climate change, and human health.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {369}, number = {1}, pages = {94-95}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMc1305749}, pmid = {23822792}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; *Internationality ; }, }
@article {pmid23822791, year = {2013}, author = {McMichael, AJ}, title = {Globalization, climate change, and human health.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {369}, number = {1}, pages = {96}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMc1305749}, pmid = {23822791}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; *Internationality ; }, }
@article {pmid23819891, year = {2013}, author = {Harmon, JP and Barton, BT}, title = {On their best behavior: how animal behavior can help determine the combined effects of species interactions and climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1297}, number = {}, pages = {139-147}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12192}, pmid = {23819891}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Animals ; *Behavior, Animal ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; Female ; Male ; Phenotype ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The increasingly appreciated link between climate change and species interactions has the potential to help us understand and predict how organisms respond to a changing environment. As this connection grows, it becomes even more important to appreciate the mechanisms that create and control the combined effect of these factors. However, we believe one such important set of mechanisms comes from species' behavior and the subsequent trait-mediated interactions, as opposed to the more often studied density-mediated effects. Behavioral mechanisms are already well appreciated for mitigating the separate effects of the environment and species interactions. Thus, they could be at the forefront for understanding the combined effects. In this review, we (1) show some of the known behaviors that influence the individual and combined effects of climate change and species interactions; (2) conceptualize general ways behavior may mediate these combined effects; and (3) illustrate the potential importance of including behavior in our current tools for predicting climate change effects. In doing so, we hope to promote more research on behavior and other mechanistic factors that may increase our ability to accurately predict climate change effects.}, }
@article {pmid23819864, year = {2013}, author = {Urban, MC and Zarnetske, PL and Skelly, DK}, title = {Moving forward: dispersal and species interactions determine biotic responses to climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1297}, number = {}, pages = {44-60}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12184}, pmid = {23819864}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Earth, Planet ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Seed Dispersal ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {We need accurate predictions about how climate change will alter species distributions and abundances around the world. Most predictions assume simplistic dispersal scenarios and ignore biotic interactions. We argue for incorporating the complexities of dispersal and species interactions. Range expansions depend not just on mean dispersal, but also on the shape of the dispersal kernel and the population's growth rate. We show how models using species-specific dispersal can produce more accurate predictions than models applying all-or-nothing dispersal scenarios. Models that additionally include species interactions can generate distinct outcomes. For example, species interactions can slow climate tracking and produce more extinctions than models assuming no interactions. We conclude that (1) just knowing mean dispersal is insufficient to predict biotic responses to climate change, and (2) considering interspecific dispersal variation and species interactions jointly will be necessary to anticipate future changes to biological diversity. We advocate for collecting key information on interspecific dispersal differences and strong biotic interactions so that we can build the more robust predictive models that will be necessary to inform conservation efforts as climates continue to change.}, }
@article {pmid23818413, year = {2013}, author = {Niiranen, S and Yletyinen, J and Tomczak, MT and Blenckner, T and Hjerne, O and Mackenzie, BR and Müller-Karulis, B and Neumann, T and Meier, HE}, title = {Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {11}, pages = {3327-3342}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12309}, pmid = {23818413}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Copepoda ; Fishes ; *Food Chain ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton ; Zooplankton ; }, abstract = {Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.}, }
@article {pmid23818331, year = {2013}, author = {Maestre, FT and Escolar, C and de Guevara, ML and Quero, JL and Lázaro, R and Delgado-Baquerizo, M and Ochoa, V and Berdugo, M and Gozalo, B and Gallardo, A}, title = {Changes in biocrust cover drive carbon cycle responses to climate change in drylands.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {3835-3847}, pmid = {23818331}, issn = {1365-2486}, support = {242658/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Bryophyta/growth &amp; development ; *Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Lichens/growth &amp; development ; Microbiota ; Rain ; Seasons ; Soil/chemistry ; Spain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Dryland ecosystems account for ca. 27% of global soil organic carbon (C) reserves, yet it is largely unknown how climate change will impact C cycling and storage in these areas. In drylands, soil C concentrates at the surface, making it particularly sensitive to the activity of organisms inhabiting the soil uppermost levels, such as communities dominated by lichens, mosses, bacteria and fungi (biocrusts). We conducted a full factorial warming and rainfall exclusion experiment at two semiarid sites in Spain to show how an average increase of air temperature of 2-3 °C promoted a drastic reduction in biocrust cover (ca. 44% in 4 years). Warming significantly increased soil CO2 efflux, and reduced soil net CO2 uptake, in biocrust-dominated microsites. Losses of biocrust cover with warming through time were paralleled by increases in recalcitrant C sources, such as aromatic compounds, and in the abundance of fungi relative to bacteria. The dramatic reduction in biocrust cover with warming will lessen the capacity of drylands to sequester atmospheric CO2 . This decrease may act synergistically with other warming-induced effects, such as the increase in soil CO2 efflux and the changes in microbial communities to alter C cycling in drylands, and to reduce soil C stocks in the mid to long term.}, }
@article {pmid23816307, year = {2013}, author = {Ateweberhan, M and Feary, DA and Keshavmurthy, S and Chen, A and Schleyer, MH and Sheppard, CR}, title = {Climate change impacts on coral reefs: synergies with local effects, possibilities for acclimation, and management implications.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {74}, number = {2}, pages = {526-539}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2013.06.011}, pmid = {23816307}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/toxicity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Coral Reefs ; Oceans and Seas ; Seaweed/physiology ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis/toxicity ; Water Pollution, Chemical/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Most reviews concerning the impact of climate change on coral reefs discuss independent effects of warming or ocean acidification. However, the interactions between these, and between these and direct local stressors are less well addressed. This review underlines that coral bleaching, acidification, and diseases are expected to interact synergistically, and will negatively influence survival, growth, reproduction, larval development, settlement, and post-settlement development of corals. Interactions with local stress factors such as pollution, sedimentation, and overfishing are further expected to compound effects of climate change. Reduced coral cover and species composition following coral bleaching events affect coral reef fish community structure, with variable outcomes depending on their habitat dependence and trophic specialisation. Ocean acidification itself impacts fish mainly indirectly through disruption of predation- and habitat-associated behavior changes. Zooxanthellate octocorals on reefs are often overlooked but are substantial occupiers of space; these also are highly susceptible to bleaching but because they tend to be more heterotrophic, climate change impacts mainly manifest in terms of changes in species composition and population structure. Non-calcifying macroalgae are expected to respond positively to ocean acidification and promote microbe-induced coral mortality via the release of dissolved compounds, thus intensifying phase-shifts from coral to macroalgal domination. Adaptation of corals to these consequences of CO2 rise through increased tolerance of corals and successful mutualistic associations between corals and zooxanthellae is likely to be insufficient to match the rate and frequency of the projected changes. Impacts are interactive and magnified, and because there is a limited capacity for corals to adapt to climate change, global targets of carbon emission reductions are insufficient for coral reefs, so lower targets should be pursued. Alleviation of most local stress factors such as nutrient discharges, sedimentation, and overfishing is also imperative if sufficient overall resilience of reefs to climate change is to be achieved.}, }
@article {pmid23813896, year = {2013}, author = {Berner, LT and Beck, PS and Bunn, AG and Goetz, SJ}, title = {Plant response to climate change along the forest-tundra ecotone in northeastern Siberia.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {11}, pages = {3449-3462}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12304}, pmid = {23813896}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Larix/*growth &amp; development ; Siberia ; Temperature ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Russia's boreal (taiga) biome will likely contract sharply and shift northward in response to 21st century climatic change, yet few studies have examined plant response to climatic variability along the northern margin. We quantified climate dynamics, trends in plant growth, and growth-climate relationships across the tundra shrublands and Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) woodlands of the Kolyma river basin (657 000 km(2)) in northeastern Siberia using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), tree ring-width measurements, and climate data. Mean summer temperatures (Ts) increased 1.0 °C from 1938 to 2009, though there was no trend (P > 0.05) in growing year precipitation or climate moisture index (CMIgy). Mean summer NDVI (NDVIs) increased significantly from 1982 to 2010 across 20% of the watershed, primarily in cold, shrub-dominated areas. NDVIs positively correlated (P < 0.05) with Ts across 56% of the watershed (r = 0.52 ± 0.09, mean ± SD), principally in cold areas, and with CMIgy across 9% of the watershed (r = 0.45 ± 0.06), largely in warm areas. Larch ring-width measurements from nine sites revealed that year-to-year (i.e., high-frequency) variation in growth positively correlated (P < 0.05) with June temperature (r = 0.40) and prior summer CMI (r = 0.40) from 1938 to 2007. An unexplained multi-decadal (i.e., low-frequency) decline in annual basal area increment (BAI) occurred following the mid-20th century, but over the NDVI record there was no trend in mean BAI (P > 0.05), which significantly correlated with NDVIs (r = 0.44, P < 0.05, 1982-2007). Both satellite and tree-ring analyses indicated that plant growth was constrained by both low temperatures and limited moisture availability and, furthermore, that warming enhanced growth. Impacts of future climatic change on forests near treeline in Arctic Russia will likely be influenced by shifts in both temperature and moisture, which implies that projections of future forest distribution and productivity in this area should take into account the interactions of energy and moisture limitations.}, }
@article {pmid23809144, year = {2013}, author = {Buse, C}, title = {Intersectoral action for health equity as it relates to climate change in Canada: contributions from critical systems heuristics.}, journal = {Journal of evaluation in clinical practice}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {1095-1100}, doi = {10.1111/jep.12069}, pmid = {23809144}, issn = {1365-2753}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; *Health Policy ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Public Health ; *Systems Theory ; }, abstract = {RATIONALE: Intersectoral action (ISA) has been at the forefront of public health policy discussions since the 1970s. ISA incorporates a broader perspective of public health issues and coordinates efforts to address the social, political, economic and environmental contexts from which health determinants operate and are created. Despite being forwarded as a useful way to address and treat complex or 'wicked' problems, such policy issues are still often addressed within, rather than across, disciplinary silos and ISA has been documented to fail more often than it succeeds.<br><br>AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: This paper contributes to an understanding of ISA by outlining and applying critical systems heuristics (CSH) theory and methods.<br><br>METHODS: CSH theory and methods are described and discussed before applying them to the example of addressing climate change and health equity through public health practice.<br><br>RESULTS: CSH thinking provides useful tools to engage stakeholders, question relations of power that may exist between collaborating partners, and move beyond power inequalities that guide ISA initiatives.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: CSH is a compelling framing that can improve an understanding of the collaborative relationships that are a prerequisite for engaging in ISA to address complex or 'wicked' policy problems such as climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23808894, year = {2014}, author = {Burge, CA and Mark Eakin, C and Friedman, CS and Froelich, B and Hershberger, PK and Hofmann, EE and Petes, LE and Prager, KC and Weil, E and Willis, BL and Ford, SE and Harvell, CD}, title = {Climate change influences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {249-277}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-010213-135029}, pmid = {23808894}, issn = {1941-1405}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*veterinary ; Foodborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Infectious diseases are common in marine environments, but the effects of a changing climate on marine pathogens are not well understood. Here we review current knowledge about how the climate drives host-pathogen interactions and infectious disease outbreaks. Climate-related impacts on marine diseases are being documented in corals, shellfish, finfish, and humans; these impacts are less clearly linked for other organisms. Oceans and people are inextricably linked, and marine diseases can both directly and indirectly affect human health, livelihoods, and well-being. We recommend an adaptive management approach to better increase the resilience of ocean systems vulnerable to marine diseases in a changing climate. Land-based management methods of quarantining, culling, and vaccinating are not successful in the ocean; therefore, forecasting conditions that lead to outbreaks and designing tools/approaches to influence these conditions may be the best way to manage marine disease.}, }
@article {pmid23806639, year = {2013}, author = {Liu, QA}, title = {The impact of climate change on plant epigenomes.}, journal = {Trends in genetics : TIG}, volume = {29}, number = {9}, pages = {503-505}, doi = {10.1016/j.tig.2013.06.004}, pmid = {23806639}, issn = {0168-9525}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Arabidopsis/*genetics/*growth &amp; development ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; DNA Methylation ; Epigenomics/*methods ; *Genome, Plant ; Phenotype ; RNA, Plant/*genetics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, }
@article {pmid23806604, year = {2013}, author = {Andrew, NR and Hart, RA and Jung, MP and Hemmings, Z and Terblanche, JS}, title = {Can temperate insects take the heat? A case study of the physiological and behavioural responses in a common ant, Iridomyrmex purpureus (Formicidae), with potential climate change.}, journal = {Journal of insect physiology}, volume = {59}, number = {9}, pages = {870-880}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinsphys.2013.06.003}, pmid = {23806604}, issn = {1879-1611}, mesh = {Animals ; Ants/*physiology ; *Behavior, Animal ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Hot Temperature ; *Locomotion ; }, abstract = {Insects in temperate regions are predicted to be at low risk of climate change relative to tropical species. However, these assumptions have generally been poorly examined in all regions, and such forecasting fails to account for microclimatic variation and behavioural optimisation. Here, we test how a population of the dominant ant species, Iridomyrmex purpureus, from temperate Australia responds to thermal stress. We show that ants regularly forage for short periods (minutes) at soil temperatures well above their upper thermal limits (upper lethal temperature = 45.8 ± 1.3°C; CT(max) = 46.1°C) determined over slightly longer periods (hours) and do not show any signs of a classic thermal performance curve in voluntary locomotion across soil surface temperatures of 18.6-57°C (equating to a body temperature of 24.5-43.1°C). Although ants were present all year round, and dynamically altered several aspects of their thermal biology to cope with low temperatures and seasonal variation, temperature-dependence of running speed remained invariant and ants were unable to elevate high temperature tolerance using plastic responses. Measurements of microclimate temperature were higher than ant body temperatures during the hottest part of the day, but exhibited a stronger relationship with each other than air temperatures from the closest weather station. Generally close associations of ant activity and performance with microclimatic conditions, possibly to maximise foraging times, suggest I. purpureus displays highly opportunistic thermal responses and readily adjusts behaviour to cope with high trail temperatures. Increasing frequency or duration of high temperatures is therefore likely to result in an immediate reduction in foraging efficiency. In summary, these results suggest that (1) soil-dwelling temperate insect populations may be at higher risks of thermal stress with increased frequency or duration of high temperatures resulting from climate change than previously thought, however, behavioural cues may be able to compensate to some extent; and (2) indices of climate change-related thermal stress, warming tolerance and thermal safety margin, are strongly influenced by the scale of climate metrics employed.}, }
@article {pmid23805950, year = {2013}, author = {Green, MS and Pri-Or, NG and Capeluto, G and Epstein, Y and Paz, S}, title = {Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.}, journal = {Israel journal of health policy research}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {23}, pmid = {23805950}, issn = {2045-4015}, abstract = {Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.}, }
@article {pmid23805249, year = {2013}, author = {Schuldiner-Harpaz, T and Coll, M}, title = {Effects of Global Warming on Predatory Bugs Supported by Data Across Geographic and Seasonal Climatic Gradients.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e66622}, pmid = {23805249}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; Heteroptera/*physiology ; Predatory Behavior/*physiology ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Global warming may affect species abundance and distribution, as well as temperature-dependent morphometric traits. In this study, we first used historical data to document changes in Orius (Heteroptera: Anthocoridae) species assemblage and individual morphometric traits over the past seven decades in Israel. We then tested whether these changes could have been temperature driven by searching for similar patterns across seasonal and geographic climatic gradients in a present survey. The historical records indicated a shift in the relative abundance of dominant Orius species; the relative abundance of O. albidipennis, a desert-adapted species, increased while that of O. laevigatus decreased in recent decades by 6 and 10-15 folds, respectively. These shifts coincided with an overall increase of up to 2.1°C in mean daily temperatures over the last 25 years in Israel. Similar trends were found in contemporary data across two other climatic gradients, seasonal and geographic; O. albidipennis dominated Orius assemblages under warm conditions. Finally, specimens collected in the present survey were significantly smaller than those from the 1980's, corresponding to significantly smaller individuals collected now during warmer than colder seasons. Taken together, results provide strong support to the hypothesis that temperature is the most likely driver of the observed shifts in species composition and body sizes because (1) historical changes in both species assemblage and body size were associated with rising temperatures in the study region over the last few decades; and (2) similar changes were observed as a result of contemporary drivers that are associated with temperature.}, }
@article {pmid23805029, year = {2013}, author = {Castán Broto, V and Bulkeley, H}, title = {A survey of urban climate change experiments in 100 cities.}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {92-102}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.005}, pmid = {23805029}, issn = {0959-3780}, abstract = {Cities are key sites where climate change is being addressed. Previous research has largely overlooked the multiplicity of climate change responses emerging outside formal contexts of decision-making and led by actors other than municipal governments. Moreover, existing research has largely focused on case studies of climate change mitigation in developed economies. The objective of this paper is to uncover the heterogeneous mix of actors, settings, governance arrangements and technologies involved in the governance of climate change in cities in different parts of the world. The paper focuses on urban climate change governance as a process of experimentation. Climate change experiments are presented here as interventions to try out new ideas and methods in the context of future uncertainties. They serve to understand how interventions work in practice, in new contexts where they are thought of as innovative. To study experimentation, the paper presents evidence from the analysis of a database of 627 urban climate change experiments in a sample of 100 global cities. The analysis suggests that, since 2005, experimentation is a feature of urban responses to climate change across different world regions and multiple sectors. Although experimentation does not appear to be related to particular kinds of urban economic and social conditions, some of its core features are visible. For example, experimentation tends to focus on energy. Also, both social and technical forms of experimentation are visible, but technical experimentation is more common in urban infrastructure systems. While municipal governments have a critical role in climate change experimentation, they often act alongside other actors and in a variety of forms of partnership. These findings point at experimentation as a key tool to open up new political spaces for governing climate change in the city.}, }
@article {pmid23805019, year = {2013}, author = {Starnberger, R and Drescher-Schneider, R and Reitner, JM and Rodnight, H and Reimer, PJ and Spötl, C}, title = {Late Pleistocene climate change and landscape dynamics in the Eastern Alps: the inner-alpine Unterangerberg record (Austria).}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews}, volume = {68}, number = {100}, pages = {17-42}, pmid = {23805019}, issn = {0277-3791}, abstract = {Drill cores from the inner-alpine valley terrace of Unterangerberg, located in the Eastern Alps of Austria, offer first insights into a Pleistocene sedimentary record that was not accessible so far. The succession comprises diamict, gravel, sand, lignite and thick, fine grained sediments. Additionally, cataclastic deposits originating from two paleo-landslide events are present. Multi-proxy analyses including sedimentological and palynological investigations as well as radiocarbon and luminescence data record the onset of the last glacial period (Würmian) at Unterangerberg at ∼120-110 ka. This first time period, correlated to the MIS 5d, was characterised by strong fluvial aggradation under cold climatic conditions, with only sparse vegetation cover. Furthermore, two large and quasi-synchronous landslide events occurred during this time interval. No record of the first Early Würmian interstadial (MIS 5c) is preserved. During the second Early Würmian interstadial (MIS 5a), the local vegetation was characterised by a boreal forest dominated by Picea, with few thermophilous elements. The subsequent collapse of the vegetation is recorded by sediments dated to ∼70-60 ka (i.e. MIS 4), with very low pollen concentrations and the potential presence of permafrost. Climatic conditions improved again between ∼55 and 45 ka (MIS 3) and cold-adapted trees re-appeared during interstadials, forming an open forest vegetation. MIS 3 stadials were shorter and less severe than the MIS 4 at Unterangerberg, and vegetation during these cold phases was mainly composed of shrubs, herbs and grasses, similar to what is known from today's alpine timberline. The Unterangerberg record ended at ∼45 ka and/or was truncated by ice during the Last Glacial Maximum.}, }
@article {pmid23802553, year = {2013}, author = {Gugger, PF and Ikegami, M and Sork, VL}, title = {Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {13}, pages = {3598-3612}, doi = {10.1111/mec.12317}, pmid = {23802553}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; California ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Plant/genetics ; Ecosystem ; Gene Flow ; *Genetic Variation ; Haplotypes ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Models, Biological ; Models, Genetic ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeography ; Population Dynamics ; Quercus/*genetics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate-based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large-scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28-1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11-18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion-contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions.}, }
@article {pmid23801641, year = {2013}, author = {Molnár, PK and Dobson, AP and Kutz, SJ}, title = {Gimme shelter--the relative sensitivity of parasitic nematodes with direct and indirect life cycles to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {11}, pages = {3291-3305}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12303}, pmid = {23801641}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Gastropoda/*parasitology ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Larva/physiology ; *Life Cycle Stages ; Models, Biological ; Nematoda/*physiology ; Ruminants/*parasitology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter the dynamics of host-parasite systems globally. One key element in developing predictive models for these impacts is the life cycle of the parasite. It is, for example, commonly assumed that parasites with an indirect life cycle would be more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than parasites with a direct life cycle due to the greater chance that at least one of their obligate host species will go extinct. Here, we challenge this notion by contrasting parasitic nematodes with a direct life cycle against those with an indirect life cycle. Specifically, we suggest that behavioral thermoregulation by the intermediate host may buffer the larvae of indirectly transmitted parasites against temperature extremes, and hence climate warming. We term this the 'shelter effect'. Formalizing each life cycle in a comprehensive model reveals a fitness advantage for the direct life cycle over the indirect life cycle at low temperatures, but the shelter effect reverses this advantage at high temperatures. When examined for seasonal environments, the models suggest that climate warming may in some regions create a temporal niche in mid-summer that excludes parasites with a direct life cycle, but allows parasites with an indirect life cycle to persist. These patterns are amplified if parasite larvae are able to manipulate their intermediate host to increase ingestion probability by definite hosts. Furthermore, our results suggest that exploiting the benefits of host sheltering may have aided the evolution of indirect life cycles. Our modeling framework utilizes the Metabolic Theory of Ecology to synthesize the complexities of host behavioral thermoregulation and its impacts on various temperature-dependent parasite life history components in a single measure of fitness, R0 . It allows quantitative predictions of climate change impacts, and is easily generalized to many host-parasite systems.}, }
@article {pmid23800836, year = {2014}, author = {Beggs, PJ}, title = {Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {58}, number = {1}, pages = {1-6}, pmid = {23800836}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Meteorological Concepts ; Periodicals as Topic/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Publishing ; Research ; Societies, Scientific ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.}, }
@article {pmid23800620, year = {2013}, author = {Mishra, A and Singh, R and Raghuwanshi, NS and Chatterjee, C and Froebrich, J}, title = {Spatial variability of climate change impacts on yield of rice and wheat in the Indian Ganga Basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {468-469 Suppl}, number = {}, pages = {S132-8}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.05.080}, pmid = {23800620}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Environmental Monitoring ; India ; Models, Theoretical ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Indian Ganga Basin (IGB), one of the most densely populated areas in the world, is facing a significant threat to food grain production, besides increased yield gap between actual and potential production, due to climate change. We have analyzed the spatial variability of climate change impacts on rice and wheat yields at three different locations representing the upper, middle and lower IGB. The DSSAT model is used to simulate the effects of climate variability and climate change on rice and wheat yields by analyzing: (i) spatial crop yield response to current climate, and (ii) impact of a changing climate as projected by two regional climate models, REMO and HadRM3, based on SRES A1B emission scenarios for the period 2011-2040. Results for current climate demonstrate a significant gap between actual and potential yield for upper, middle and lower IGB stations. The analysis based on RCM projections shows that during 2011-2040, the largest reduction in rice and wheat yields will occur in the upper IGB (reduction of potential rice and wheat yield respectively by 43.2% and 20.9% by REMO, and 24.8% and 17.2% by HadRM3). In the lower IGB, however, contrasting results are obtained, with HadRM3 based projections showing an increase in the potential rice and wheat yields, whereas, REMO based projections show decreased potential yields. We discuss the influence of agro-climatic factors; variation in temperature, length of maturity period and leaf area index which are responsible for modeled spatial variability in crop yield response within the IGB.}, }
@article {pmid23800223, year = {2013}, author = {Quintero, I and Wiens, JJ}, title = {Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16}, number = {8}, pages = {1095-1103}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12144}, pmid = {23800223}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Phylogeny ; Vertebrates/*physiology ; }, abstract = {A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time-calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10,000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species.}, }
@article {pmid23799265, year = {2013}, author = {Bajželj, B and Allwood, JM and Cullen, JM}, title = {Designing climate change mitigation plans that add up.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {47}, number = {14}, pages = {8062-8069}, pmid = {23799265}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {Mitigation plans to combat climate change depend on the combined implementation of many abatement options, but the options interact. Published anthropogenic emissions inventories are disaggregated by gas, sector, country, or final energy form. This allows the assessment of novel energy supply options, but is insufficient for understanding how options for efficiency and demand reduction interact. A consistent framework for understanding the drivers of emissions is therefore developed, with a set of seven complete inventories reflecting all technical options for mitigation connected through lossless allocation matrices. The required data set is compiled and calculated from a wide range of industry, government, and academic reports. The framework is used to create a global Sankey diagram to relate human demand for services to anthropogenic emissions. The application of this framework is demonstrated through a prediction of per-capita emissions based on service demand in different countries, and through an example showing how the "technical potentials" of a set of separate mitigation options should be combined.}, }
@article {pmid23799105, year = {2013}, author = {Meynard, CN and Migeon, A and Navajas, M}, title = {Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a widespread agricultural pest.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e66445}, pmid = {23799105}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Acari/classification/*physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Species Specificity ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat considering different sources of uncertainty in species distribution modelling.}, }
@article {pmid23797709, year = {2013}, author = {Khemakhem, H and Elloumi, J and Ayadi, H and Aleya, L and Moussa, M}, title = {Modelling the phytoplankton dynamics in a nutrient-rich solar saltern pond: predicting the impact of restoration and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {20}, number = {12}, pages = {9057-9065}, pmid = {23797709}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation/*methods ; Models, Theoretical ; Phytoplankton/*growth &amp; development ; Ponds/chemistry ; Salinity ; Temperature ; Tunisia ; }, abstract = {An ecological model for the solar saltern of Sfax (Tunisia) was established and validated by comparing simulation results to observed data relative to horizontal distributions of temperature, nutrients and phytoplankton biomass. Sensitivity analysis was performed in order to assess the influence of the main ecological model parameters. First applied at the saltern's pond A1, the model was calibrated with field data measured over 4 years of study (from 2000 to 2003), which allowed an evaluation of parameters such as maximum growth rate of phytoplankton, optimal growth temperature and constant of half saturation for P/N assimilation by phytoplankton. Simulation results showed that the model allowed us to predict realistic phytoplankton variations of the study area, though we were unable to accurately reproduce the nutrient variation. The model was then applied to simulations of the impact of changes in phytoplankton biomass through scenarios such as hypothetic climate changes and saltern restoration.}, }
@article {pmid23797366, year = {2013}, author = {Wolkovich, EM and Davies, TJ and Schaefer, H and Cleland, EE and Cook, BI and Travers, SE and Willis, CG and Davis, CC}, title = {Temperature-dependent shifts in phenology contribute to the success of exotic species with climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {100}, number = {7}, pages = {1407-1421}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1200478}, pmid = {23797366}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Demography ; *Introduced Species ; Phylogeny ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/*classification/*genetics ; Species Specificity ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; United Kingdom ; United States ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The study of how phenology may contribute to the assembly of plant communities has a long history in ecology. Climate change has brought renewed interest in this area, with many studies examining how phenology may contribute to the success of exotic species. In particular, there is increasing evidence that exotic species occupy unique phenological niches and track climate change more closely than native species.<br><br>METHODS: Here, we use long-term records of species&#x2019; first flowering dates from fi ve northern hemisphere temperate sites (Chinnor, UK and in the United States, Concord, Massachusetts; Fargo, North Dakota; Konza Prairie, Kansas; and Washington,D.C.) to examine whether invaders have distinct phenologies. Using a broad phylogenetic framework, we tested for differences between exotic and native species in mean annual flowering time, phenological changes in response to temperature and precipitation,and longer-term shifts in first flowering dates during recent pronounced climate change (&#x201c;flowering time shifts&#x201d;).<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Across North American sites, exotic species have shifted flowering with climate change while native species, on average, have not. In the three mesic systems, exotic species exhibited higher tracking of interannual variation in temperature,such that flowering advances more with warming, than native species. Across the two grassland systems, however, exotic species differed from native species primarily in responses to precipitation and soil moisture, not temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide cross-site support for the role of phenology and climate change in explaining species&#x2019; invasions.Further, they support recent evidence that exotic species may be important drivers of extended growing seasons observed with climate change in North America.}, }
@article {pmid23796014, year = {2013}, author = {Buckley, LB}, title = {Get real: putting models of climate change and species interactions in practice.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1297}, number = {}, pages = {126-138}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12175}, pmid = {23796014}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Body Temperature ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Lizards/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Forecasts of the ecological impacts of climate change are generally focused on direct impacts to individual species. Theory and case studies suggest that indirect effects associated with species interactions may alter these direct responses. How can we tractably predict in which cases indirect effects are likely to be important and appropriately model the interaction of abiotic and biotic drivers? One viable strategy is to characterize partitioning between species along thermal, temporal, and spatial niche axes. The partitioning can be informed by assessing functional traits. Mechanistic models can then be applied to predict how climate change will alter niche partitioning. I illustrate this approach by asking whether competition has altered the responses of Caribbean Anolis lizards to recent warming and find that forested habitat has become more suitable for a warm-adapted, open species, and less suitable for a cool-adapted forest inhabitant. Competition may result in competitive displacement of the cool-adapted species as the warm-adapted species moves into the forest. Species interactions may accentuate abundance and distribution shifts predicted in response to climate change along the elevation gradient.}, }
@article {pmid23793955, year = {2014}, author = {Zhang, Y and Bielory, L and Georgopoulos, PG}, title = {Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {58}, number = {5}, pages = {909-919}, pmid = {23793955}, issn = {1432-1254}, support = {P30 ES005022/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30ES005022/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Betula ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; *Pollen ; *Quercus ; Seasons ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994-2000 and 2001-2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1-2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6%-248%. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.}, }
@article {pmid23793582, year = {2013}, author = {Emery, SM and Rudgers, JA}, title = {Impacts of simulated climate change and fungal symbionts on survival and growth of a foundation species in sand dunes.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {173}, number = {4}, pages = {1601-1612}, pmid = {23793582}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Endophytes/physiology ; Fungi/*physiology ; Michigan ; Mycorrhizae/physiology ; Plant Roots/growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Symbiosis/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {For many ecosystems, one of the primary avenues of climate impact may be through changes to foundation species, which create habitats and sustain ecosystem services. For plants, microbial symbionts can often act as mutualists under abiotic stress and may mediate foundational plant responses to climate change. We manipulated the presence of endophytes in Ammophila breviligulata, a foundational sand dune species, to evaluate their potential to influence plant responses to climate change. We simulated projected climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation using a growth chamber experiment. A 5 °C increase in temperature relative to current climate in northern Michigan reduced A. breviligulata survival by 45 %. Root biomass of A. breviligulata, which is critical to dune stabilization, was also strongly reduced by temperature. Plants inoculated with the endophyte had 14 % higher survival than endophyte-free plants. Contrary to our prediction, endophyte symbiosis did not alter the magnitude or direction of the effects of climate manipulations on A. breviligulata survival. However, in the absence of the endophyte, an increase in temperature increased the number of sand grains bound by roots by 80 %, while in symbiotic plants sand adherence did not significantly respond to temperature. Thus, plant-endophyte symbiosis actually negated the benefits in ecosystem function gained under a warmer climate. This study suggests that heat stress related to climate change in the Great Lakes may compromise the ability of A. breviligulata to stabilize dune ecosystems and reduce carbon storage and organic matter build-up in these early-successional systems due to reduced plant survival and root growth.}, }
@article {pmid23792579, year = {2013}, author = {van Leeuwen, C and Schultz, HR and Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I and Duchêne, E and Ollat, N and Pieri, P and Bois, B and Goutouly, JP and Quénol, H and Touzard, JM and Malheiro, AC and Bavaresco, L and Delrot, S}, title = {Why climate change will not dramatically decrease viticultural suitability in main wine-producing areas by 2050.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {33}, pages = {E3051-2}, pmid = {23792579}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Vitis/*growth &amp; development ; Wine/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid23789087, year = {2013}, author = {Coelho, FJ and Santos, AL and Coimbra, J and Almeida, A and Cunha, A and Cleary, DF and Calado, R and Gomes, NC}, title = {Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {6}, pages = {1808-1818}, pmid = {23789087}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Global climate change has the potential to seriously and adversely affect marine ecosystem functioning. Numerous experimental and modeling studies have demonstrated how predicted ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can affect marine microbes. However, researchers have largely ignored interactions between ocean acidification, increased UVR and anthropogenic pollutants in marine environments. Such interactions can alter chemical speciation and the bioavailability of several organic and inorganic pollutants with potentially deleterious effects, such as modifying microbial-mediated detoxification processes. Microbes mediate major biogeochemical cycles, providing fundamental ecosystems services such as environmental detoxification and recovery. It is, therefore, important that we understand how predicted changes to oceanic pH, UVR, and temperature will affect microbial pollutant detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. The intrinsic characteristics of microbes, such as their short generation time, small size, and functional role in biogeochemical cycles combined with recent advances in molecular techniques (e.g., metagenomics and metatranscriptomics) make microbes excellent models to evaluate the consequences of various climate change scenarios on detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. In this review, we highlight the importance of microbial microcosm experiments, coupled with high-resolution molecular biology techniques, to provide a critical experimental framework to start understanding how climate change, anthropogenic pollution, and microbiological interactions may affect marine ecosystems in the future.}, }
@article {pmid23789058, year = {2013}, author = {Scherber, C and Gladbach, DJ and Stevnbak, K and Karsten, RJ and Schmidt, IK and Michelsen, A and Albert, KR and Larsen, KS and Mikkelsen, TN and Beier, C and Christensen, S}, title = {Multi-factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {6}, pages = {1449-1460}, pmid = {23789058}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO2, warming, drought) in a Danish heathland ecosystem. The experiment was established in 2005 as a full factorial split-plot with 6 blocks × 2 levels of CO2 × 2 levels of warming × 2 levels of drought = 48 plots. In 2008, we exposed 432 larvae (n = 9 per plot) of the heather beetle (Lochmaea suturalis Thomson), an important herbivore on heather, to ambient versus elevated drought, temperature, and CO2 (plus all combinations) for 5 weeks. Larval weight and survival were highest under ambient conditions and decreased significantly with the number of climate change drivers. Weight was lowest under the drought treatment, and there was a three-way interaction between time, CO2, and drought. Survival was lowest when drought, warming, and elevated CO2 were combined. Effects of climate change drivers depended on other co-acting factors and were mediated by changes in plant secondary compounds, nitrogen, and water content. Overall, drought was the most important factor for this insect herbivore. Our study shows that weight and survival of insect herbivores may decline under future climate. The complexity of insect herbivore responses increases with the number of combined climate change drivers.}, }
@article {pmid23786499, year = {2013}, author = {Calinger, KM and Queenborough, S and Curtis, PS}, title = {Herbarium specimens reveal the footprint of climate change on flowering trends across north-central North America.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16}, number = {8}, pages = {1037-1044}, pmid = {23786499}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Flowers/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Magnoliopsida/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Ohio ; Pollination ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Shifting flowering phenology with rising temperatures is occurring worldwide, but the rarity of co-occurring long-term observational and temperature records has hindered the evaluation of phenological responsiveness in many species and across large spatial scales. We used herbarium specimens combined with historic temperature data to examine the impact of climate change on flowering trends in 141 species collected across 116,000 km(2) in north-central North America. On average, date of maximum flowering advanced 2.4 days °C(-1), although species-specific responses varied from - 13.5 to + 7.3 days °C(-1). Plant functional types exhibited distinct patterns of phenological responsiveness with significant differences between native and introduced species, among flowering seasons, and between wind- and biotically pollinated species. This study is the first to assess large-scale patterns of phenological responsiveness with broad species representation and is an important step towards understanding current and future impacts of climate change on species performance and biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid23784087, year = {2013}, author = {Wang, G and Cai, W}, title = {Climate-change impact on the 20th-century relationship between the Southern Annular Mode and global mean temperature.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {2039}, pmid = {23784087}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {The positive phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) increases global mean temperature, and contributes to a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the dominant mode of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. This interannual relationship of a high global mean temperature associated with a negative SAM, however, is opposite to the relationship between their trends under greenhouse warming. We show that over much of the 20th century this relationship undergoes multidecadal fluctuations depending on the intensity of ENSO. During the period 1925-1955, subdued ENSO activities weakened the relationship. However, a similar weakening has occurred since the late 1970s despite the strong ENSO. We demonstrate that this recent weakening is induced by climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Our result highlights a rare situation in which climate change signals emerge against an opposing property of interannual variability, underscoring the robustness of the recent climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23782913, year = {2013}, author = {Beale, CM and Baker, NE and Brewer, MJ and Lennon, JJ}, title = {Protected area networks and savannah bird biodiversity in the face of climate change and land degradation.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16}, number = {8}, pages = {1061-1068}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12139}, pmid = {23782913}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Tanzania ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The extent to which climate change might diminish the efficacy of protected areas is one of the most pressing conservation questions. Many projections suggest that climate-driven species distribution shifts will leave protected areas impoverished and species inadequately protected while other evidence suggests that intact ecosystems within protected areas will be resilient to change. Here, we tackle this problem empirically. We show how recent changes in distribution of 139 Tanzanian savannah bird species are linked to climate change, protected area status and land degradation. We provide the first evidence of climate-driven range shifts for an African bird community. Our results suggest that the continued maintenance of existing protected areas is an appropriate conservation response to the challenge of climate and environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid23781944, year = {2013}, author = {Schijven, J and Bouwknegt, M and de Roda Husman, AM and Rutjes, S and Sudre, B and Suk, JE and Semenza, JC}, title = {A decision support tool to compare waterborne and foodborne infection and/or illness risks associated with climate change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {33}, number = {12}, pages = {2154-2167}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12077}, pmid = {23781944}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; *Decision Support Techniques ; Disease Outbreaks ; Foodborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; *Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change may impact waterborne and foodborne infectious disease, but to what extent is uncertain. Estimating climate-change-associated relative infection risks from exposure to viruses, bacteria, or parasites in water or food is critical for guiding adaptation measures. We present a computational tool for strategic decision making that describes the behavior of pathogens using location-specific input data under current and projected climate conditions. Pathogen-pathway combinations are available for exposure to norovirus, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, and noncholera Vibrio species via drinking water, bathing water, oysters, or chicken fillets. Infection risk outcomes generated by the tool under current climate conditions correspond with those published in the literature. The tool demonstrates that increasing temperatures lead to increasing risks for infection with Campylobacter from consuming raw/undercooked chicken fillet and for Vibrio from water exposure. Increasing frequencies of drought generally lead to an elevated infection risk of exposure to persistent pathogens such as norovirus and Cryptosporidium, but decreasing risk of exposure to rapidly inactivating pathogens, like Campylobacter. The opposite is the case with increasing annual precipitation; an upsurge of heavy rainfall events leads to more peaks in infection risks in all cases. The interdisciplinary tool presented here can be used to guide climate change adaptation strategies focused on infectious diseases.}, }
@article {pmid23781218, year = {2013}, author = {Steinweg, JM and Dukes, JS and Paul, EA and Wallenstein, MD}, title = {Microbial responses to multi-factor climate change: effects on soil enzymes.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {146}, pmid = {23781218}, issn = {1664-302X}, abstract = {The activities of extracellular enzymes, the proximate agents of decomposition in soils, are known to depend strongly on temperature, but less is known about how they respond to changes in precipitation patterns, and the interaction of these two components of climate change. Both enzyme production and turnover can be affected by changes in temperature and soil moisture, thus it is difficult to predict how enzyme pool size may respond to altered climate. Soils from the Boston-Area Climate Experiment (BACE), which is located in an old field (on abandoned farmland), were used to examine how climate variables affect enzyme activities and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) in different seasons and in soils exposed to a combination of three levels of precipitation treatments (ambient, 150% of ambient during growing season, and 50% of ambient year-round) and four levels of warming treatments (unwarmed to ~4°C above ambient) over the course of a year. Warming, precipitation and season had very little effect on potential enzyme activity. Most models assume that enzyme dynamics follow microbial biomass, because enzyme production should be directly controlled by the size and activity of microbial biomass. We observed differences among seasons and treatments in mass-specific potential enzyme activity, suggesting that this assumption is invalid. In June 2009, mass-specific potential enzyme activity, using chloroform fumigation-extraction MBC, increased with temperature, peaking under medium warming and then declining under the highest warming. This finding suggests that either enzyme production increased with temperature or turnover rates decreased. Increased maintenance costs associated with warming may have resulted in increased mass-specific enzyme activities due to increased nutrient demand. Our research suggests that allocation of resources to enzyme production could be affected by climate-induced changes in microbial efficiency and maintenance costs.}, }
@article {pmid23776676, year = {2013}, author = {Suikkanen, S and Pulina, S and Engström-Öst, J and Lehtiniemi, M and Lehtinen, S and Brutemark, A}, title = {Climate change and eutrophication induced shifts in northern summer plankton communities.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e66475}, pmid = {23776676}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Baltic States ; *Climate Change ; Eutrophication/*physiology ; *Food Chain ; Oceans and Seas ; Plankton/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; Salinity ; *Seasons ; Seawater/chemistry ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Marine ecosystems are undergoing substantial changes due to human-induced pressures. Analysis of long-term data series is a valuable tool for understanding naturally and anthropogenically induced changes in plankton communities. In the present study, seasonal monitoring data were collected in three sub-basins of the northern Baltic Sea between 1979 and 2011 and statistically analysed for trends and interactions between surface water hydrography, inorganic nutrient concentrations and phyto- and zooplankton community composition. The most conspicuous hydrographic change was a significant increase in late summer surface water temperatures over the study period. In addition, salinity decreased and dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations increased in some basins. Based on redundancy analysis (RDA), warming was the key environmental factor explaining the observed changes in plankton communities: the general increase in total phytoplankton biomass, Cyanophyceae, Prymnesiophyceae and Chrysophyceae, and decrease in Cryptophyceae throughout the study area, as well as increase in rotifers and decrease in total zooplankton, cladoceran and copepod abundances in some basins. We conclude that the plankton communities in the Baltic Sea have shifted towards a food web structure with smaller sized organisms, leading to decreased energy available for grazing zooplankton and planktivorous fish. The shift is most probably due to complex interactions between warming, eutrophication and increased top-down pressure due to overexploitation of resources, and the resulting trophic cascades.}, }
@article {pmid23776635, year = {2013}, author = {Zhao, X and Fitzgerald, M}, title = {Climate change: implications for the yield of edible rice.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e66218}, pmid = {23776635}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*genetics ; Agriculture/*methods ; Breeding/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Humidity ; Oryza/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; *Phenotype ; Plant Transpiration/physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming affects not only rice yield but also grain quality. A better understanding of the effects of climate factors on rice quality provides information for new breeding strategies to develop varieties of rice adapted to a changing world. Chalkiness is a key trait of physical quality, and along with head rice yield, is used to determine the price of rice in all markets. In the present study, we show that for every ∼1% decrease in chalkiness, an increase of ∼1% in head rice yield follows, illustrating the dual impact of chalk on amount of marketable rice and its value. Previous studies in controlled growing conditions report that chalkiness is associated with high temperature. From 1980-2009 at IRRI, Los Baños, the Philippines, annual minimum and mean temperatures, and diurnal variation changed significantly. The objective of this study was to determine how climate impacts chalkiness in field conditions over four wet and dry seasons. We show that low relative humidity and a high vapour pressure deficit in the dry season associate with low chalk and high head rice yield in spite of higher maximum temperature, but in the opposite conditions of the wet season, chalk is high and head rice yield is low. The data therefore suggest that transpirational cooling is a key factor affecting chalkiness and head rice yield, and global warming per se might not be the major factor that decreases the amount and quality of rice, but other climate factors in combination, that enable the crop to maintain a cool canopy.}, }
@article {pmid23773290, year = {2013}, author = {Griffiths, J}, title = {Improving public health by tackling climate change.}, journal = {Israel journal of health policy research}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {22}, pmid = {23773290}, issn = {2045-4015}, abstract = {Across the world, climate change is now responsible for substantial mortality and morbidity, through direct effects on health and also by threatening the determinants of health. This commentary argues that adaptation policies to enhance resilience to adverse climate events are important, but must be coupled with determined action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The prize is synergy: many such policies, for example concerning food, travel and community engagement, can simultaneously improve physical and mental health.This is a commentary on http://www.ijhpr.org/content/2/1/23.}, }
@article {pmid23773091, year = {2013}, author = {Rohr, JR and Palmer, BD}, title = {Climate change, multiple stressors, and the decline of ectotherms.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {741-751}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12086}, pmid = {23773091}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*physiology ; Ambystoma/*physiology ; Animals ; Atrazine ; Behavior, Animal/drug effects/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Dose-Response Relationship, Drug ; Exploratory Behavior/drug effects/physiology ; Herbicides/*toxicity ; Kentucky ; Likelihood Functions ; Species Specificity ; Stress, Physiological/*physiology ; Survival Analysis ; *Temperature ; Water/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change is believed to be causing declines of ectothermic vertebrates, but there is little evidence that climatic conditions associated with declines have exceeded critical (i.e., acutely lethal) maxima or minima, and most relevant studies are correlative, anecdotal, or short-term (hours). We conducted an 11-week factorial experiment to examine the effects of temperature (22 °C or 27 °C), moisture (wet or dry), and atrazine (an herbicide; 0, 4, 40, 400 μg/L exposure as embryos and larvae) on the survival, growth, behavior, and foraging rates of postmetamorphic streamside salamanders (Ambystoma barbouri), a species of conservation concern. The tested climatic conditions were between the critical maxima and minima of streamside salamanders; thus, this experiment quantified the long-term effects of climate change within the noncritical range of this species. Despite a suite of behavioral adaptations to warm and dry conditions (e.g., burrowing, refuge use, huddling with conspecifics, and a reduction in activity), streamside salamanders exhibited significant loss of mass and significant mortality in all but the cool and moist conditions, which were closest to the climatic conditions in which they are most active in nature. A temperature of 27 °C represented a greater mortality risk than dry conditions; death occurred rapidly at this temperature and more gradually under cool and dry conditions. Foraging decreased under dry conditions, which suggests there were opportunity costs to water conservation. Exposure to the herbicide atrazine additively decreased water-conserving behaviors, foraging efficiency, mass, and time to death. Hence, the hypothesis that moderate climate change can cause population declines is even more plausible under scenarios with multiple stressors. These results suggest that climate change within the noncritical range of species and pollution may reduce individual performance by altering metabolic demands, hydration, and foraging effort and may facilitate population declines of amphibians and perhaps other ectothermic vertebrates.}, }
@article {pmid23769712, year = {2013}, author = {Sax, DF and Early, R and Bellemare, J}, title = {Niche syndromes, species extinction risks, and management under climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {28}, number = {9}, pages = {517-523}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.010}, pmid = {23769712}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecology/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Dispersal ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {The current distributions of species are often assumed to correspond with the total set of environmental conditions under which species can persist. When this assumption is incorrect, extinction risk estimated from species distribution models can be misleading. The degree to which species can tolerate or even thrive under conditions found beyond their current distributions alters extinction risks, time lags in realizing those risks, and the usefulness of alternative management strategies. To inform these issues, we propose a conceptual framework within which empirical data could be used to generate hypotheses regarding the realized, fundamental, and 'tolerance' niche of species. Although these niche components have rarely been characterized over geographic scales, we suggest that this could be done for many plant species by comparing native, naturalized, and horticultural distributions.}, }
@article {pmid23769238, year = {2013}, author = {Habib, K and Schmidt, JH and Christensen, P}, title = {A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {33}, number = {9}, pages = {1926-1933}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2013.04.016}, pmid = {23769238}, issn = {1879-2456}, mesh = {Cities ; Denmark ; Gases/analysis ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Incineration/methods ; Refuse Disposal/*methods ; Soil ; }, abstract = {The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP(100)), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) to net saving of 670 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of MSWM.}, }
@article {pmid23766677, year = {2013}, author = {Corobov, R and Sîrodoev, I and Koeppel, S and Denisov, N and Sîrodoev, G}, title = {Assessment of climate change vulnerability at the local level: a case study on the Dniester River Basin (Moldova).}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {2013}, number = {}, pages = {173794}, pmid = {23766677}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crime/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Employment/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Environment ; Moldova ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Vulnerability to climate change of the Moldavian part of the Dniester river was assessed as the function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of its basin's natural and socioeconomic systems. As a spatial "scale" of the assessment, Moldova's administrative-territorial units (ATUs) were selected. The exposure assessment was based on the climatic analysis of baseline (1971-2000) temperature and precipitation and projections of their changes in 2021-2050, separately for cold and warm periods. The sensitivity assessment included physiographical and socioeconomic characteristics, described by a set of specific indicators. The adaptive capacity was expressed by general economic and agricultural indicators, taking into consideration the medical provision and housing conditions. Through a ranking approach, the relative vulnerability of each ATU was calculated by summing its sensitivity and adaptive capacity ranks; the latter were obtained as combinations of their primary indicator ranks, arranged in an increasing and decreasing order, respectively. Due to lack of sound knowledge on these components' importance in overall assessment of vulnerability, their weights were taken as conventionally equal. Mapping of vulnerability revealed that ATUs neighboring to municipalities are the most vulnerable and need special attention in climate change adaptation. The basin's "hotspots" were discussed with public participation.}, }
@article {pmid23765608, year = {2013}, author = {Wenger, SJ and Som, NA and Dauwalter, DC and Isaak, DJ and Neville, HM and Luce, CH and Dunham, JB and Young, MK and Fausch, KD and Rieman, BE}, title = {Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {11}, pages = {3343-3354}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12294}, pmid = {23765608}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Forecasting ; Logistic Models ; *Models, Theoretical ; Monte Carlo Method ; Northwestern United States ; *Salmonidae ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing models (model uncertainty), and uncertainty in future climate conditions (climate uncertainty) to produce site-specific frequency distributions of occurrence probabilities across a species' range. We illustrated the method by forecasting suitable habitat for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Interior Columbia River Basin, USA, under recent and projected 2040s and 2080s climate conditions. The 95% interval of total suitable habitat under recent conditions was estimated at 30.1-42.5 thousand km; this was predicted to decline to 0.5-7.9 thousand km by the 2080s. Projections for the 2080s showed that the great majority of stream segments would be unsuitable with high certainty, regardless of the climate data set or bull trout model employed. The largest contributor to uncertainty in total suitable habitat was climate uncertainty, followed by parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty. Our approach makes it possible to calculate a full distribution of possible outcomes for a species, and permits ready graphical display of uncertainty for individual locations and of total habitat.}, }
@article {pmid23763102, year = {2013}, author = {Goodman, B}, title = {Role of the nurse in addressing the health effects of climate change.}, journal = {Nursing standard (Royal College of Nursing (Great Britain) : 1987)}, volume = {27}, number = {35}, pages = {49-56; quiz 58}, doi = {10.7748/ns2013.05.27.35.49.e7374}, pmid = {23763102}, issn = {0029-6570}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; *Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Education, Nursing/*methods ; *Global Health ; Health Promotion/*methods ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects the social and environmental determinants of health such as clean air, sufficient food, safe drinking water and secure shelter, and may be considered a threat to health. Healthcare professionals have been called to take action on carbon reduction. Action depends on various factors such as personal commitment to environmental issues and professionals' understanding of climate change, and action may occur at individual, organisational, community, national and international levels. As public health is a core component of the nurse's role, this article discusses the health effects of climate change and suggests ways to address these effects.}, }
@article {pmid23762522, year = {2013}, author = {Zelikova, TJ and Hufbauer, RA and Reed, SC and Wertin, T and Fettig, C and Belnap, J}, title = {Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {1374-1387}, pmid = {23762522}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.}, }
@article {pmid23762521, year = {2013}, author = {Jueterbock, A and Tyberghein, L and Verbruggen, H and Coyer, JA and Olsen, JL and Hoarau, G}, title = {Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {1356-1373}, pmid = {23762521}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or "unit" and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid23760936, year = {2012}, author = {Liu, GC and Tokida, T and Matsunami, T and Nakamura, H and Okada, M and Sameshima, R and Hasegawa, T and Sugiyama, S}, title = {Microbial community composition controls the effects of climate change on methane emission from rice paddies.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology reports}, volume = {4}, number = {6}, pages = {648-654}, doi = {10.1111/j.1758-2229.2012.00391.x}, pmid = {23760936}, issn = {1758-2229}, abstract = {Rice paddies are one of the most important sources of CH4 emission from the terrestrial ecosystem. A Free-air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment, which included a soil warming treatment, was conducted in a rice paddy at Shizukuishi, Japan. In this study, the changes in CH4 emission from a rice paddy, caused by global climate change, were explored in relation to the structural changes that have occurred in the methanogenic archaeal communities found in the soil and roots. The composition of the archaeal community was examined by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) using the 16S rRNA gene, while its abundance was measured by real-time PCR using the methyl coenzyme M reductase (mcrA) gene. The archaeal community in the roots showed considerable change, characterized by the dominance of hydrogenotrophic methanogens and a corresponding decrease in acetoclastic methanogens. Seasonal changes in CH4 flux were closely related to the changes in methanogen abundance in the roots. Elevated CO2 caused an increase in root mass, which increased the abundance of methanogens leading to a rise in CH4 emissions. However, soil warming stimulated CH4 emissions by increasing CH4 production per individual methanogen. These results demonstrated that climate warming stimulates CH4 emission in a rice paddy by altering the abundance and activity of methanogenic archaea in the roots.}, }
@article {pmid23759952, year = {2013}, author = {Akompab, DA and Bi, P and Williams, S and Grant, J and Walker, IA and Augoustinos, M}, title = {Heat waves and climate change: applying the health belief model to identify predictors of risk perception and adaptive behaviours in adelaide, australia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {2164-2184}, pmid = {23759952}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological/*physiology ; Adult ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Cohort Studies ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Psychological Theory ; Risk ; Socioeconomic Factors ; South Australia ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Heat waves are considered a health risk and they are likely to increase in frequency, intensity and duration as a consequence of climate change. The effects of heat waves on human health could be reduced if individuals recognise the risks and adopt healthy behaviours during a heat wave. The purpose of this study was to determine the predictors of risk perception using a heat wave scenario and identify the constructs of the health belief model that could predict adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. A cross-sectional study was conducted during the summer of 2012 among a sample of persons aged between 30 to 69 years in Adelaide. Participants' perceptions were assessed using the health belief model as a conceptual frame. Their knowledge about heat waves and adaptive behaviours during heat waves was also assessed. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the predictors of risk perception to a heat wave scenario and adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. Of the 267 participants, about half (50.9%) had a high risk perception to heat waves while 82.8% had good adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. Multivariate models found that age was a significant predictor of risk perception. In addition, participants who were married (OR = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.07-0.62), who earned a gross annual household income of ≥$60,000 (OR = 0.41; 95% CI, 0.17-0.94) and without a fan (OR = 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11-0.79) were less likely to have a high risk perception to heat waves. Those who were living with others (OR = 2.87; 95% CI, 1.19-6.90) were more likely to have a high risk perception to heat waves. On the other hand, participants with a high perceived benefit (OR = 2.14; 95% CI, 1.00-4.58), a high "cues to action" (OR = 3.71; 95% CI, 1.63-8.43), who had additional training or education after high school (OR = 2.65; 95% CI, 1.25-5.58) and who earned a gross annual household income of ≥$60,000 (OR = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.07-6.56) were more likely to have good adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. The health belief model could be useful to guide the design and implementation of interventions to promote adaptive behaviours during heat waves.}, }
@article {pmid23759111, year = {2013}, author = {Haque, MA and Budi, A and Azam Malik, A and Suzanne Yamamoto, S and Louis, VR and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Health coping strategies of the people vulnerable to climate change in a resource-poor rural setting in Bangladesh.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {565}, pmid = {23759111}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Adult ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Data Collection ; Disease/*psychology ; Educational Status ; Female ; Focus Groups ; Health Behavior ; Health Expenditures ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Poverty Areas ; Residence Characteristics ; *Rural Population ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Among the many challenges faced by the people of Bangladesh, the effects of climate change are discernibly threatening, impacting on human settlement, agricultural production, economic development, and human health. Bangladesh is a low-income country with limited resources; its vulnerability to climate change has influenced individuals to seek out health coping strategies. The objectives of the study were to explore the different strategies/measures people employ to cope with climate sensitive diseases and sickness.<br><br>METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 450 households from Rajshahi and Khulna districts of Bangladesh selected through multi-stage sampling techniques, using a semi-structured questionnaire supplemented by 12 focus group discussions and 15 key informant interviews.<br><br>RESULTS: Respondents applied 22 types of primary health coping strategies to prevent climate related diseases and sickness. To cope with health problems, 80.8% used personal treatment experiences and 99.3% sought any treatments available at village level. The percentage of respondents that visited unqualified health providers to cope with climate induced health problems was quite high, namely 92.7% visited village doctors, 75.9% drug stores, and 67.3% self-medicated. Ninety per cent of the respondents took treatment from unqualified providers as their first choice. Public health facilities were the first choice of treatment for only 11.0% of respondents. On average, every household spent Bangladesh Currency Taka 9,323 per year for the treatment of climate sensitive diseases and sickness. Only 46% of health expenditure was managed from their savings. The rest, 54% expenditure, was supported by using 24 different sources, such as social capital and the selling of family assets. The rate of out-of-pocket payment was almost 100%.<br><br>CONCLUSION: People are concerned about climate induced diseases and sickness and sought preventive as well as curative measures to cope with health problems. The most common and widely used climate health coping strategies among the respondents included self-medicating and seeking the health service of unqualified private health care providers. Per family spending to cope with such health problems is expensive and completely based on out of pocket payment. There is no fund pooling, community funding or health insurance program in rural areas to support the health coping of the people. Policies are needed to reduce out-of-pocket payment, to improve the quality of the unqualified providers and to extend public health services at rural areas and support climate related health coping. Collection of such knowledge on climate related health coping strategies can allow researchers to study any specific issue on health coping, and policy makers to initiate effective climate related health coping strategies for climate vulnerable people.}, }
@article {pmid23739478, year = {2013}, author = {Del Prado, A and Crosson, P and Olesen, JE and Rotz, CA}, title = {Whole-farm models to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and their potential use for linking climate change mitigation and adaptation in temperate grassland ruminant-based farming systems.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {7 Suppl 2}, number = {}, pages = {373-385}, doi = {10.1017/S1751731113000748}, pmid = {23739478}, issn = {1751-732X}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Gases/*metabolism ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Ruminants/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed to quantify GHG emissions and explore climate change mitigation strategies for livestock systems. This paper analyses the limitations and strengths of the different existing approaches for modelling GHG mitigation by considering basic model structures, approaches for simulating GHG emissions from various farm components and the sensitivity of GHG outputs and mitigation measures to different approaches. Potential challenges for linking existing models with the simulation of impacts and adaptation measures under climate change are explored along with a brief discussion of the effects on other ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid23739476, year = {2013}, author = {Hoffmann, I}, title = {Adaptation to climate change--exploring the potential of locally adapted breeds.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {7 Suppl 2}, number = {}, pages = {346-362}, doi = {10.1017/S1751731113000815}, pmid = {23739476}, issn = {1751-732X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Agriculture ; *Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; *Breeding ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Livestock/genetics/*physiology ; Phenotype ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The livestock sector and agriculture as a whole face unprecedented challenges to increase production while improving the environment. On the basis of a literature review, the paper first discusses challenges related to climate change, food security and other drivers of change in livestock production. On the basis of a recent discourse in ecology, a framework for assessing livestock species' and breeds' vulnerability to climate change is presented. The second part of the paper draws on an analysis of data on breed qualities obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization's Domestic Animal Diversity Information System (DAD-IS) to explore the range of adaptation traits present in today's breed diversity. The analysis produced a first mapping of a range of ascribed adaptation traits of national breed populations. It allowed to explore what National Coordinators understand by 'locally adapted' and other terms that describe general adaptation, to better understand the habitat, fodder and temperature range of each species and to shed light on the environments in which targeted search for adaptation traits could focus.}, }
@article {pmid23739475, year = {2013}, author = {Skuce, PJ and Morgan, ER and van Dijk, J and Mitchell, M}, title = {Animal health aspects of adaptation to climate change: beating the heat and parasites in a warming Europe.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {7 Suppl 2}, number = {}, pages = {333-345}, doi = {10.1017/S175173111300075X}, pmid = {23739475}, issn = {1751-732X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animal Husbandry/*methods ; *Animal Welfare ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Hot Temperature ; *Livestock ; Parasitic Diseases, Animal/*parasitology ; *Poultry ; Poultry Diseases/parasitology ; }, abstract = {Weather patterns in northern European regions have changed noticeably over the past several decades, featuring warmer, wetter weather with more extreme events. The climate is projected to continue on this trajectory for the foreseeable future, even under the most modest warming scenarios. Such changes will have a significant impact on livestock farming, both directly through effects on the animals themselves, and indirectly through changing exposure to pests and pathogens. Adaptation options aimed at taking advantage of new opportunities and/or minimising the risks of negative impacts will, in themselves, have implications for animal health and welfare. In this review, we consider the potential consequences of future intensification of animal production, challenges associated with indoor and outdoor rearing of animals and aspects of animal transportation as key examples. We investigate the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the epidemiology of important livestock pathogens, with a particular focus on parasitic infections, and the likely animal health consequences associated with selected adaptation options. Finally, we attempt to identify key gaps in our knowledge and suggest future research priorities.}, }
@article {pmid23739463, year = {2013}, author = {Muldowney, J and Mounsey, J and Kinsella, L}, title = {Agriculture in the climate change negotiations; ensuring that food production is not threatened.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {7 Suppl 2}, number = {}, pages = {206-211}, doi = {10.1017/S175173111300089X}, pmid = {23739463}, issn = {1751-732X}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environment ; *Food Supply ; Greenhouse Effect ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {With the human population predicted to reach nine billion by 2050, demand for food is predicted to more than double over this time period, a trend which will lead to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. Furthermore, expansion in food production is predicted to occur primarily in the developing world, where adaptation to climate change may be more difficult and opportunities to mitigate emissions limited. In the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 'ensuring that food production is not threatened' is explicitly mentioned in the objective of the Convention. However, the focus of negotiations under the Convention has largely been on reducing GHG emissions from energy, and industrial activities and realizing the potential of forestry as a carbon sink. There has been little attention by the UNFCCC to address the challenges and opportunities for the agriculture sector. Since 2006, concerted efforts have been made to raise the prominence of agriculture within the negotiations. The most recent The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and 'The Emissions Gap Report' by the UNEP highlighted the significant mitigation potential of agriculture, which can help contribute towards keeping global temperature rises below the 2°C limit agreed in Cancun. Agriculture has to be a part of the solution to address climate change, but this will also require a focus on how agriculture systems can adapt to climate change in order to continue to increase food output. However, to effectively realize this potential, systematic and dedicated discussion and decisions within the UNFCCC are needed. UNFCCC discussions on a specific agriculture agenda item started in 2012, but are currently inconclusive. However, Parties are generally in agreement on the importance of agriculture in contributing to food security and employment as well as the need to improve understanding of agriculture and how it can contribute to realizing climate objectives. Discussions on agriculture are continuing with a view to finding an acceptable approach to address the climate change related challenges faced by agriculture worldwide and to ensure that 'food production is not threatened'.}, }
@article {pmid23757445, year = {2013}, author = {Svenning, JC and Sandel, B}, title = {Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {100}, number = {7}, pages = {1266-1286}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1200469}, pmid = {23757445}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Plants/*classification/genetics ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Near-future climate changes are likely to elicit major vegetation changes. Disequilibrium dynamics, which occur when vegetation comes out of equilibrium with climate, are potentially a key facet of these. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for making accurate predictions, informing conservation planning, and understanding likely changes in ecosystem function on time scales relevant to society. However, many predictive studies have instead focused on equilibrium end-points with little consideration of the transient trajectories.<br><br>METHODS: We review what we should expect in terms of disequilibrium vegetation dynamics over the next 50-200 yr, covering a broad range of research fields including paleoecology, macroecology, landscape ecology, vegetation science, plant ecology, invasion biology, global change biology, and ecosystem ecology.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: The expected climate changes are likely to induce marked vegetation disequilibrium with climate at both leading and trailing edges, with leading-edge disequilibrium dynamics due to lags in migration at continental to landscape scales, in local population build-up and succession, in local evolutionary responses, and in ecosystem development, and trailing-edge disequilibrium dynamics involving delayed local extinctions and slow losses of ecosystem structural components. Interactions with habitat loss and invasive pests and pathogens are likely to further contribute to disequilibrium dynamics. Predictive modeling and climate-change experiments are increasingly representing disequilibrium dynamics, but with scope for improvement.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The likely pervasiveness and complexity of vegetation disequilibrium is a major challenge for forecasting ecological dynamics and, combined with the high ecological importance of vegetation, also constitutes a major challenge for future nature conservation.}, }
@article {pmid23755482, year = {2013}, author = {Zhang, XL and Pan, XJ and Xiong, ZQ and Wang, JY and Yang, B and Liu, YL and Liu, PL}, title = {[Effects of farming managements on the global warming potentials of CH4 and N2O from a rice-wheat rotation system based on the analysis of DNDC modeling].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {690-696}, pmid = {23755482}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Methane/*analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Taking a rice-wheat rotation system in the suburb of Nanjing, Jiangsu Province of East China as test object, this paper studied the fluxes of CH4 and N2O and their annual dynamics under different farming managements in 2010-2011, and the field observation data were applied to validate the process-based model, denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model, aimed to approach the applicability of the model to this rotation system, and to use this model to simulate the effects of different environmental factors and farming managements on the global warming potentials (GWPs) of CH4 and N2O. The results showed that except in the treatment control and during wheat growth season, the simulated cumulative emissions of CH4 and N2O from the rotation system in all treatments were basically in coincide with the observed data, the relative deviations being from 7. 1% to 26.3%, and thus, the DNDC model could be applied to simulate the GWPs of cumulative emissions of CH4 and N2O as affected by various environmental factors or management practices. The sensitivity test showed that the GWPs of CH4 and N2O varied significantly with the changes of environmental factors such as the mean annual air temperature, soil bulk density, soil organic carbon, soil texture, and soil pH. Farming managements such as N fertilization, straw returning, and duration of mid-season drainage also had significant effects on the GWPs of CH4 and NO20. Therefore, the above-mentioned environmental factors and farming managements should be taken into account to estimate the greenhouse gases emission from the rice-wheat cropping system on site-specific or regional scale.}, }
@article {pmid23755255, year = {2013}, author = {McDonald, RI and Girvetz, EH}, title = {Two challenges for U.S. irrigation due to climate change: increasing irrigated area in wet states and increasing irrigation rates in dry states.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e65589}, pmid = {23755255}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Agricultural Irrigation ; Algorithms ; *Climate Change ; Models, Statistical ; Rain ; Regression Analysis ; United States ; }, abstract = {Agricultural irrigation practices will likely be affected by climate change. In this paper, we use a statistical model relating observed water use by U.S. producers to the moisture deficit, and then use this statistical model to project climate changes impact on both the fraction of agricultural land irrigated and the irrigation rate (m[3] ha[-1]). Data on water withdrawals for US states (1985-2005) show that both quantities are highly positively correlated with moisture deficit (precipitation--PET). If current trends hold, climate change would increase agricultural demand for irrigation in 2090 by 4.5-21.9 million ha (B1 scenario demand: 4.5-8.7 million ha, A2 scenario demand: 9.1-21.9 million ha). Much of this new irrigated area would occur in states that currently have a wet climate and a small fraction of their agricultural land currently irrigated, posing a challenge to policymakers in states with less experience with strict regulation of agriculture water use. Moreover, most of this expansion will occur in states where current agricultural production has relatively low market value per hectare, which may make installation of irrigation uneconomical without significant changes in crops or practices by producers. Without significant increases in irrigation efficiency, climate change would also increase the average irrigation rate from 7,963 to 8,400-10,415 m[3] ha[-1] (B1 rate: 8,400-9,145 m[3] ha[-1], A2 rate: 9,380-10,415 m[3] ha[-1]). The irrigation rate will increase the most in states that already have dry climates and large irrigation rates, posing a challenge for water supply systems in these states. Accounting for both the increase in irrigated area and irrigation rate, total withdrawals might increase by 47.7-283.4 billion m[3] (B1 withdrawal: 47.7-106.0 billion m[3], A2 withdrawal: 117.4-283.4 billion m[3]). Increases in irrigation water-use efficiency, particularly by reducing the prevalence of surface irrigation, could eliminate the increase in total irrigation withdrawals in many states.}, }
@article {pmid23754854, year = {2013}, author = {Brown, R}, title = {Climate change: global challenges for the chiropractic profession.}, journal = {The Journal of the Canadian Chiropractic Association}, volume = {57}, number = {2}, pages = {106-110}, pmid = {23754854}, issn = {0008-3194}, }
@article {pmid23752756, year = {2013}, author = {Mazer, SJ and Travers, SE and Cook, BI and Davies, TJ and Bolmgren, K and Kraft, NJ and Salamin, N and Inouye, DW}, title = {Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {100}, number = {7}, pages = {1381-1397}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1200455}, pmid = {23752756}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Flowers/*physiology ; Magnoliopsida/*classification ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied.<br><br>METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.}, }
@article {pmid23750996, year = {2013}, author = {Gilbert, B and O'Connor, MI}, title = {Climate change and species interactions: beyond local communities.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1297}, number = {}, pages = {98-111}, doi = {10.1111/nyas.12149}, pmid = {23750996}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Algorithms ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Biology/methods ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Plants ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {It is increasingly recognized that the wide-scale modification of habitats caused by climate change requires scientists to consider how species and species interactions change both locally and at larger, regional scales. Metacommunity approaches explicitly link local and regional dynamics for communities of species, providing a conceptual and mathematical framework for global change biologists. These approaches can scale between community-level impacts and the regional distributions and movements of species, and likewise determine how changes to regional processes, such as dispersal and habitat configuration, influence local abundances and occurrences. This review discusses several lessons that have recently emerged from climate change studies and metacommunity theory to identify some of the key processes that link local-scale studies to regional-scale properties of communities, and vice versa. We then use simple models to highlight how these linkages function and to identify where research could gain most by studying specific local and regional processes. Finally, we propose methods for the field to move forward by clarifying how to incorporate metacommunity approaches into empirical research, and by identifying important gaps in metacommunity research.}, }
@article {pmid23749628, year = {2013}, author = {le Roux, PC and Aalto, J and Luoto, M}, title = {Soil moisture's underestimated role in climate change impact modelling in low-energy systems.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {2965-2975}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12286}, pmid = {23749628}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Finland ; Models, Theoretical ; Plants ; Soil/*chemistry ; Water/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Shifts in precipitation regimes are an inherent component of climate change, but in low-energy systems are often assumed to be less important than changes in temperature. Because soil moisture is the hydrological variable most proximally linked to plant performance during the growing season in arctic-alpine habitats, it may offer the most useful perspective on the influence of changes in precipitation on vegetation. Here we quantify the influence of soil moisture for multiple vegetation properties at fine spatial scales, to determine the potential importance of soil moisture under changing climatic conditions. A fine-scale data set, comprising vascular species cover and field-quantified ecologically relevant environmental parameters, was analysed to determine the influence of soil moisture relative to other key abiotic predictors. Soil moisture was strongly related to community composition, species richness and the occurrence patterns of individual species, having a similar or greater influence than soil temperature, pH and solar radiation. Soil moisture varied considerably over short distances, and this fine-scale heterogeneity may contribute to offsetting the ecological impacts of changes in precipitation for species not limited to extreme soil moisture conditions. In conclusion, soil moisture is a key driver of vegetation properties, both at the species and community level, even in this low-energy system. Soil moisture conditions represent an important mechanism through which changing climatic conditions impact vegetation, and advancing our predictive capability will therefore require a better understanding of how soil moisture mediates the effects of climate change on biota.}, }
@article {pmid23744573, year = {2013}, author = {Chen, H and Zhu, Q and Peng, C and Wu, N and Wang, Y and Fang, X and Gao, Y and Zhu, D and Yang, G and Tian, J and Kang, X and Piao, S and Ouyang, H and Xiang, W and Luo, Z and Jiang, H and Song, X and Zhang, Y and Yu, G and Zhao, X and Gong, P and Yao, T and Wu, J}, title = {The impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {2940-2955}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12277}, pmid = {23744573}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Plants ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {With a pace of about twice the observed rate of global warming, the temperature on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (Earth's 'third pole') has increased by 0.2 °C per decade over the past 50 years, which results in significant permafrost thawing and glacier retreat. Our review suggested that warming enhanced net primary production and soil respiration, decreased methane (CH(4)) emissions from wetlands and increased CH(4) consumption of meadows, but might increase CH(4) emissions from lakes. Warming-induced permafrost thawing and glaciers melting would also result in substantial emission of old carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and CH(4). Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emission was not stimulated by warming itself, but might be slightly enhanced by wetting. However, there are many uncertainties in such biogeochemical cycles under climate change. Human activities (e.g. grazing, land cover changes) further modified the biogeochemical cycles and amplified such uncertainties on the plateau. If the projected warming and wetting continues, the future biogeochemical cycles will be more complicated. So facing research in this field is an ongoing challenge of integrating field observations with process-based ecosystem models to predict the impacts of future climate change and human activities at various temporal and spatial scales. To reduce the uncertainties and to improve the precision of the predictions of the impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles, efforts should focus on conducting more field observation studies, integrating data within improved models, and developing new knowledge about coupling among carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus biogeochemical cycles as well as about the role of microbes in these cycles.}, }
@article {pmid23739583, year = {2013}, author = {Zeng, Z and Piao, S and Chen, A and Lin, X and Nan, H and Li, J and Ciais, P}, title = {Committed changes in tropical tree cover under the projected 21st century climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {1951}, pmid = {23739583}, issn = {2045-2322}, abstract = {Warming and drought pose a serious threat to tropical forest. Yet the extent of this threat is uncertain, given the lack of methods to evaluate the forest tree cover changes under future climate predicted by complex dynamic vegetation models. Here we develop an empirical approach based on the observed climate space of tropical trees to estimate the maximum potential tropical tree cover (MPTC) in equilibrium with a given climate. We show that compared to present-day (2000-2009) conditions, MPTC will be reduced by 1 to 15% in the tropical band under equilibrium future (2090-2099) climate conditions predicted by 19 IPCC climate models. Tropical forests are found to regress or disappear mainly in the current transition zones between forest and savanna ecosystems. This climate pressure on tropical forests, added to human-caused land use pressure, poses a grand challenge to the sustainability of the world's largest biomass carbon pool.}, }
@article {pmid23739423, year = {2013}, author = {Hanna, E and Navarro, FJ and Pattyn, F and Domingues, CM and Fettweis, X and Ivins, ER and Nicholls, RJ and Ritz, C and Smith, B and Tulaczyk, S and Whitehouse, PL and Zwally, HJ}, title = {Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {498}, number = {7452}, pages = {51-59}, pmid = {23739423}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Air ; Antarctic Regions ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Computer Simulation ; Greenland ; *Ice Cover ; Snow ; Temperature ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.}, }
@article {pmid23736941, year = {2013}, author = {Maina, J and de Moel, H and Zinke, J and Madin, J and McClanahan, T and Vermaat, JE}, title = {Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {1986}, pmid = {23736941}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Coral Reefs ; Geography ; *Geologic Sediments ; Humans ; Madagascar ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating river flow and sediment supply in four watersheds that are adjacent to Madagascar's major coral reef ecosystems for a range of future climate change projections and land-use change scenarios. We show that by 2090, all four watersheds are predicted to experience temperature increases and/or precipitation declines that, when combined, result in decreases in river flow and sediment load. However, these climate change-driven declines are outweighed by the impact of deforestation. Consequently, our analyses suggest that regional land-use management is more important than mediating climate change for influencing sedimentation of Malagasy coral reefs.}, }
@article {pmid23736049, year = {2013}, author = {Liu, Z and Powers, W and Liu, H}, title = {Greenhouse gas emissions from swine operations: evaluation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change approaches through meta-analysis.}, journal = {Journal of animal science}, volume = {91}, number = {8}, pages = {4017-4032}, doi = {10.2527/jas.2012-6147}, pmid = {23736049}, issn = {1525-3163}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/chemistry/metabolism ; *Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Methane/chemistry/*metabolism ; Nitrous Oxide/chemistry/*metabolism ; Swine/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The objective was to provide a systematic review of the literature on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from swine operations, with a meta-analysis that integrates results of independent studies. A total of 53 studies that measured GHG emissions from swine operations were included in the analyses. Results showed that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approaches were effective in estimating the overall CH4 and N2O emission levels from swine operations, but the variation of the measured emissions is not adequately captured. An overestimation by the IPCC approaches for CH4 emissions was observed for swine buildings with pit systems in European studies and the average percentage relative difference (PRD) between the measured and the IPCC values is -21.1%. The observed CH4 emissions from lagoons were lower than the IPCC estimated values and the average PRD is -33.9%. In North American studies the observed N2O emission factors for swine buildings with pit systems were significantly lower than the IPCC default values whereas in European studies they were significantly greater than the IPCC default values. The measured CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by stage of production (P = 0.05 and <0.01, respectively) and geographic regions (P = 0.04 and 0.02, respectively). The IPCC approaches were effective in simulating the effect of temperature on CH4 emissions from outdoor slurry storage facilities whereas they could overestimate CH4 emissions from lagoons at low temperatures. The CH4 emissions from pits inside swine buildings were not significantly affected by average ambient temperatures. A positive relationship between diet CP content and CH4 emissions was confirmed in the meta-analysis. The obtained knowledge can be helpful in efforts to improve estimation of GHG emissions from swine operations.}, }
@article {pmid23734623, year = {2013}, author = {Stone, B and Vargo, J and Liu, P and Hu, Y and Russell, A}, title = {Climate change adaptation through urban heat management in Atlanta, Georgia.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {47}, number = {14}, pages = {7780-7786}, doi = {10.1021/es304352e}, pmid = {23734623}, issn = {1520-5851}, support = {1U01EH000432-01/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Georgia ; *Hot Temperature ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {This study explores the potential effectiveness of metropolitan land cover change as a climate change adaptation strategy for managing rising temperatures in a large and rapidly warming metropolitan region of the United States. Through the integration of a mesoscale meteorological model with estimated land cover data for the Atlanta, Georgia region in 2010, this study quantifies the influence of extensive land cover change at the periphery of a large metropolitan region on temperature within the city center. The first study to directly model a metropolitan scale heat transfer mechanism, we find both enhanced tree canopy and impervious cover in the suburban zones of the Atlanta region to produce statistically significant cooling and warming effects in the urban core. Based on these findings, we conclude that urban heat island management both within and beyond the central developed core of large cities may provide an effective climate change adaptation strategy for large metropolitan regions.}, }
@article {pmid23734340, year = {2013}, author = {Groom, QJ}, title = {Some poleward movement of British native vascular plants is occurring, but the fingerprint of climate change is not evident.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {e77}, pmid = {23734340}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {Recent upperward migration of plants and animals along altitudinal gradients and poleward movement of animal range boundaries have been confirmed by many studies. This phenomenon is considered to be part of the fingerprint of recent climate change on the biosphere. Here I examine whether poleward movement is occurring in the vascular plants of Great Britain. The ranges of plants were determined from detection/non-detection data in two periods, 1978 to 1994 and 1995 to 2011. From these, the centre of mass of the population was calculated and the magnitude and direction of range shifts were determined from movements of the centre of mass. A small, but significant, northward movement could be detected in plants with expanding ranges, but not among declining species. Species from warmer ranges were not more likely to be moving northward, nor was dispersal syndrome a predictor of migration success. It is concluded that simply looking at northward movement of species is not an effective way to identify the effect of climate change on plant migration and that other anthropogenic changes obscure the effect of climate.}, }
@article {pmid23732443, year = {2014}, author = {Dai, J and Wang, H and Ge, Q}, title = {The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {58}, number = {4}, pages = {521-528}, pmid = {23732443}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Color ; Magnoliopsida/*growth &amp; development ; Plant Leaves/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Leaf phenology has been shown to be one of the most important indicators of the effects of climate change on biological systems. Few such studies have, however, been published detailing the relationship between phenology and climate change in Asian contexts. With the aim of quantifying species' phenological responsiveness to temperature and deepening understandings of spatial patterns of phenological and climate change in China, this study analyzes the first leaf date (FLD) and the leaf coloring date (LCD) from datasets of four woody plant species, Robinia pseudoacacia, Ulmus pumila, Salix babylonica, and Melia azedarach, collected from 1963 to 2009 at 47 Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) stations spread across China (from 21° to 50° N). The results of this study show that changes in temperatures in the range of 39-43 days preceding the date of FLD of these plants affected annual variations in FLD, while annual variations in temperature in the range of 71-85 days preceding LCD of these plants affected the date of LCD. Average temperature sensitivity of FLD and LCD for these plants was -3.93 to 3.30 days °C(-1) and 2.11 to 4.43 days °C[-1], respectively. Temperature sensitivity of FLD was found to be stronger at lower latitudes or altitude as well as in more continental climates, while the response of LCD showed no consistent pattern. Within the context of significant warming across China during the study period, FLD was found to have advanced by 5.44 days from 1960 to 2009; over the same period, LCD was found to have been delayed by 4.56 days. These findings indicate that the length of the growing season of the four plant species studied was extended by a total of 10.00 days from 1960 to 2009. They also indicate that phenological response to climate is highly heterogeneous spatially.}, }
@article {pmid23731815, year = {2013}, author = {Telemeco, RS and Warner, DA and Reida, MK and Janzen, FJ}, title = {Extreme developmental temperatures result in morphological abnormalities in painted turtles (Chrysemys picta): a climate change perspective.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {197-208}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12019}, pmid = {23731815}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {Animal Shells/*abnormalities ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Embryonic Development/*physiology ; Female ; Illinois ; Linear Models ; Nesting Behavior/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Turtles/abnormalities/*embryology ; }, abstract = {Increases in extreme environmental events are predicted to be major results of ongoing global climate change and may impact the persistence of species. We examined the effects of heat and cold waves during embryonic development of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) in natural nests on the occurrence of abnormal shell morphologies in hatchlings. We found that nests exposed to extreme hot temperatures for >60 h produced more hatchlings with abnormalities than nests exposed to extreme hot temperatures for shorter periods, regardless of whether or not nesting females displayed abnormal morphologies. We observed no effect of extreme cold nest temperatures on the occurrence of hatchlings with abnormalities. Moreover, the frequency of nesting females with abnormal shell morphologies was approximately 2-fold lower than that of their offspring, suggesting that such abnormalities are negatively correlated with survival and fitness. Female turtles could potentially buffer their offspring from extreme heat by altering aspects of nesting behavior, such as choosing shadier nesting sites. We addressed this hypothesis by examining the effects of shade cover on extreme nest temperatures and the occurrence of hatchling abnormalities. While shade cover was negatively correlated with the occurrence of extreme hot nest temperatures, it was not significantly correlated with abnormalities. Therefore, female choice of shade cover does not appear to be a viable target for selection to reduce hatchling abnormalities. Our results suggest that increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves associated with climate change might perturb developmental programs and thereby reduce the fitness of entire cohorts of turtles.}, }
@article {pmid23731811, year = {2013}, author = {Li, Y and Cohen, JM and Rohr, JR}, title = {Review and synthesis of the effects of climate change on amphibians.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {145-161}, doi = {10.1111/1749-4877.12001}, pmid = {23731811}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*physiology ; Amphibians/parasitology/*physiology ; *Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Body Size/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Life Cycle Stages/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Research ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Considerable progress has been made in understanding the responses of amphibians to climate change, with successful research carried out on climate change-associated shifts in amphibian phenology, elevational distributions and amphibian-parasite interactions. We review and synthesize the literature on this topic, emphasizing acutely lethal, sublethal, indirect and positive effects of climate change on amphibians, and major research gaps. For instance, evidence is lacking on poleward shifts in amphibian distributions and on changes in body sizes and morphologies of amphibians in response to climate change. We have limited information on amphibian thermal tolerances, thermal preferences, dehydration breaths, opportunity costs of water conserving behaviors and actual temperature and moisture ranges amphibians experience. Even when much of this information is available, there remains little evidence that climate change is acutely lethal to amphibians. This suggests that if climate change is contributing to declines, it might be through effects that are not acutely lethal, indirect, or both, but evidence in support of this suggestion is necessary. In fact, evidence that climate change is directly contributing to amphibian declines is weak, partly because researchers have not often ruled out alternative hypotheses, such as chytrid fungus or climate-fungus interactions. Consequently, we recommend that amphibian-climate research shift from primarily inductive, correlational approach as to studies that evaluate alternative hypotheses for declines. This additional rigor will require interdisciplinary collaborations, estimates of costs and benefits of climate change to amphibian fitness and populations, and the integration of correlative field studies, experiments on 'model' amphibian species, and mathematical and functional, physiological models.}, }
@article {pmid23731256, year = {2013}, author = {Rico, C and Pittermann, J and Polley, HW and Aspinwall, MJ and Fay, PA}, title = {The effect of subambient to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on vascular function in Helianthus annuus: implications for plant response to climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {199}, number = {4}, pages = {956-965}, doi = {10.1111/nph.12339}, pmid = {23731256}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; *Climate Change ; Helianthus/*drug effects/*physiology ; Phloem/anatomy &amp; histology/drug effects/physiology ; Plant Stems/drug effects/physiology ; Plant Stomata/drug effects/physiology ; Plant Transpiration/drug effects ; Plant Vascular Bundle/anatomy &amp; histology/*drug effects/*physiology ; Xylem/anatomy &amp; histology/drug effects/physiology ; }, abstract = {Plant gas exchange is regulated by stomata, which coordinate leaf-level water loss with xylem transport. Stomatal opening responds to internal concentrations of CO2 in the leaf, but changing CO2 can also lead to changes in stomatal density that influence transpiration. Given that stomatal conductance increases under subambient concentrations of CO2 and, conversely, that plants lose less water at elevated concentrations, can downstream effects of atmospheric CO2 be observed in xylem tissue? We approached this problem by evaluating leaf stomatal density, xylem transport, xylem anatomy and resistance to cavitation in Helianthus annuus plants grown under three CO2 regimes ranging from pre-industrial to elevated concentrations. Xylem transport, conduit size and stomatal density all increased at 290 ppm relative to ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations. The shoots of the 290-ppm-grown plants were most vulnerable to cavitation, whereas xylem cavitation resistance did not differ in 390- and 480-ppm-grown plants. Our data indicate that, even as an indirect driver of water loss, CO2 can affect xylem structure and water transport by coupling stomatal and xylem hydraulic functions during plant development. This plastic response has implications for plant water use under variable concentrations of CO2, as well as the evolution of efficient xylem transport.}, }
@article {pmid23728486, year = {2013}, author = {Gebrehiwot, T and van der Veen, A}, title = {Farm level adaptation to climate change: the case of farmer's in the Ethiopian highlands.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {52}, number = {1}, pages = {29-44}, pmid = {23728486}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Adult ; Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Decision Making ; Ethiopia ; Female ; Humans ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Perception ; Rural Population ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.}, }
@article {pmid23723259, year = {2013}, author = {Buerki, S and Forest, F and Stadler, T and Alvarez, N}, title = {The abrupt climate change at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary and the emergence of South-East Asia triggered the spread of sapindaceous lineages.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {112}, number = {1}, pages = {151-160}, pmid = {23723259}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern ; *Biological Evolution ; Climate Change ; Genetic Variation ; Paleontology ; *Phylogeny ; Plastids/genetics ; Sapindaceae/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Paleoclimatic data indicate that an abrupt climate change occurred at the Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) boundary affecting the distribution of tropical forests on Earth. The same period has seen the emergence of South-East (SE) Asia, caused by the collision of the Eurasian and Australian plates. How the combination of these climatic and geomorphological factors affected the spatio-temporal history of angiosperms is little known. This topic is investigated by using the worldwide sapindaceous clade as a case study.<br><br>METHODS: Analyses of divergence time inference, diversification and biogeography (constrained by paleogeography) are applied to a combined plastid and nuclear DNA sequence data set. Biogeographical and diversification analyses are performed over a set of trees to take phylogenetic and dating uncertainty into account. Results are analysed in the context of past climatic fluctuations.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: An increase in the number of dispersal events at the E-O boundary is recorded, which intensified during the Miocene. This pattern is associated with a higher rate in the emergence of new genera. These results are discussed in light of the geomorphological importance of SE Asia, which acted as a tropical bridge allowing multiple contacts between areas and additional speciation across landmasses derived from Laurasia and Gondwana.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the importance of the combined effect of geomorphological (the emergence of most islands in SE Asia approx. 30 million years ago) and climatic (the dramatic E-O climate change that shifted the tropical belt and reduced sea levels) factors in shaping species distribution within the sapindaceous clade.}, }
@article {pmid23723223, year = {2013}, author = {Stevens, B and Bony, S}, title = {Climate change. What are climate models missing?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {340}, number = {6136}, pages = {1053-1054}, doi = {10.1126/science.1237554}, pmid = {23723223}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Air Movements ; *Atmosphere ; *Climate Change ; Earth, Planet ; Global Warming ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid23721732, year = {2013}, author = {Corlett, RT and Westcott, DA}, title = {Will plant movements keep up with climate change?.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {28}, number = {8}, pages = {482-488}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2013.04.003}, pmid = {23721732}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Biodiversity ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Seed Dispersal ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {In the face of anthropogenic climate change, species must acclimate, adapt, move, or die. Although some species are moving already, their ability to keep up with the faster changes expected in the future is unclear. 'Migration lag' is a particular concern with plants, because it could threaten both biodiversity and carbon storage. Plant movements are not realistically represented in models currently used to predict future vegetation and carbon-cycle feedbacks, so there is an urgent need to understand how much of a problem failure to track climate change is likely to be. Therefore, in this review, we compare how fast plants need to move with how fast they can move; that is, the velocity of climate change with the velocity of plant movement.}, }
@article {pmid23718702, year = {2013}, author = {Macpherson, CC}, title = {Climate change is a bioethics problem.}, journal = {Bioethics}, volume = {27}, number = {6}, pages = {305-308}, doi = {10.1111/bioe.12029}, pmid = {23718702}, issn = {1467-8519}, mesh = {*Bioethical Issues ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Personal Autonomy ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; Reproductive Behavior ; *Social Responsibility ; *Social Values ; }, abstract = {Climate change harms health and damages and diminishes environmental resources. Gradually it will cause health systems to reduce services, standards of care, and opportunities to express patient autonomy. Prominent public health organizations are responding with preparedness, mitigation, and educational programs. The design and effectiveness of these programs, and of similar programs in other sectors, would be enhanced by greater understanding of the values and tradeoffs associated with activities and public policies that drive climate change. Bioethics could generate such understanding by exposing the harms and benefits in different cultural, socioeconomic, and geographic contexts, and through interdisciplinary risk assessments. Climate change is a bioethics problem because it harms everyone and involves health, values, and responsibilities. This article initiates dialog about the responsibility of bioethics to promote transparency and understanding of the social values and conflicts associated with climate change, and the actions and public policies that allow climate change to worsen.}, }
@article {pmid23717503, year = {2013}, author = {Moyle, PB and Kiernan, JD and Crain, PK and Quiñones, RM}, title = {Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {e63883}, pmid = {23717503}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; California ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Fishes/*physiology ; Fresh Water ; }, abstract = {Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different regions.}, }
@article {pmid23715698, year = {2013}, author = {Mayer, DK and McCabe, M}, title = {Climate change and cancer care.}, journal = {Clinical journal of oncology nursing}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {231-232}, doi = {10.1188/13.CJON.231-232}, pmid = {23715698}, issn = {1538-067X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning ; Humans ; Neoplasms/*therapy ; United States ; }, abstract = {The summer weather forecast was recently announced, predicting a greater number of storms along the East Coast (Rice, 2013). That forecast includes a prediction for 18 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes-a typical year has 12 and 7, respectively. This prediction may be frightening for those who survived Hurricane Katrina or Sandy, flooding in Illinois, or fires in northern California.}, }
@article {pmid23714412, year = {2013}, author = {Hillman, T and Mortimer, F and Hopkinson, NS}, title = {Inhaled drugs and global warming: time to shift to dry powder inhalers.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {346}, number = {}, pages = {f3359}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.f3359}, pmid = {23714412}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Administration, Inhalation ; *Dry Powder Inhalers ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; *Nebulizers and Vaporizers ; }, }
@article {pmid23713119, year = {2013}, author = {Voss, M and Bange, HW and Dippner, JW and Middelburg, JJ and Montoya, JP and Ward, B}, title = {The marine nitrogen cycle: recent discoveries, uncertainties and the potential relevance of climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1621}, pages = {20130121}, pmid = {23713119}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Denitrification/physiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrification/physiology ; *Nitrogen Cycle ; Nitrogen Fixation/*physiology ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen/chemistry ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The ocean's nitrogen cycle is driven by complex microbial transformations, including nitrogen fixation, assimilation, nitrification, anammox and denitrification. Dinitrogen is the most abundant form of nitrogen in sea water but only accessible by nitrogen-fixing microbes. Denitrification and nitrification are both regulated by oxygen concentrations and potentially produce nitrous oxide (N2O), a climate-relevant atmospheric trace gas. The world's oceans, including the coastal areas and upwelling areas, contribute about 30 per cent to the atmospheric N2O budget and are, therefore, a major source of this gas to the atmosphere. Human activities now add more nitrogen to the environment than is naturally fixed. More than half of the nitrogen reaches the coastal ocean via river input and atmospheric deposition, of which the latter affects even remote oceanic regions. A nitrogen budget for the coastal and open ocean, where inputs and outputs match rather well, is presented. Furthermore, predicted climate change will impact the expansion of the oceans' oxygen minimum zones, the productivity of surface waters and presumably other microbial processes, with unpredictable consequences for the cycling of nitrogen. Nitrogen cycling is closely intertwined with that of carbon, phosphorous and other biologically important elements via biological stoichiometric requirements. This linkage implies that human alterations of nitrogen cycling are likely to have major consequences for other biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functions and services.}, }
@article {pmid23712567, year = {2013}, author = {Llusia, D and Márquez, R and Beltrán, JF and Benítez, M and do Amaral, JP}, title = {Calling behaviour under climate change: geographical and seasonal variation of calling temperatures in ectotherms.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {2655-2674}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12267}, pmid = {23712567}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {*Animal Communication ; Animals ; Anura/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Geography ; *Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Calling behaviour is strongly temperature-dependent and critical for sexual selection and reproduction in a variety of ectothermic taxa, including anuran amphibians, which are the most globally threatened vertebrates. However, few studies have explored how species respond to distinct thermal environments at time of displaying calling behaviour, and thus it is still unknown whether ongoing climate change might compromise the performance of calling activity in ectotherms. Here, we used new audio-trapping techniques (automated sound recording and detection systems) between 2006 and 2009 to examine annual calling temperatures of five temperate anurans and their patterns of geographical and seasonal variation at the thermal extremes of species ranges, providing insights into the thermal breadths of calling activity of species, and the mechanisms that enable ectotherms to adjust to changing thermal environments. All species showed wide thermal breadths during calling behaviour (above 15 °C) and increases in calling temperatures in extremely warm populations and seasons. Thereby, calling temperatures differed both geographically and seasonally, both in terrestrial and aquatic species, and were 8-22 °C below the specific upper critical thermal limits (CTmax) and strongly associated with the potential temperatures of each thermal environment (operative temperatures during the potential period of breeding). This suggests that calling behaviour in ectotherms may take place at population-specific thermal ranges, diverging when species are subjected to distinct thermal environments, and might imply plasticity of thermal adjustment mechanisms (seasonal and developmental acclimation) that supply species with means of coping with climate change. Furthermore, the thermal thresholds of calling at the onset of the breeding season were dissimilar between conspecific populations, suggesting that other factors besides temperature are needed to trigger the onset of reproduction. Our findings imply that global warming would not directly inhibit calling behaviour in the study species, although might affect other temperature-dependent features of their acoustic communication system.}, }
@article {pmid23710831, year = {2013}, author = {Velo-Antón, G and Parra, JL and Parra-Olea, G and Zamudio, KR}, title = {Tracking climate change in a dispersal-limited species: reduced spatial and genetic connectivity in a montane salamander.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {12}, pages = {3261-3278}, doi = {10.1111/mec.12310}, pmid = {23710831}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; *Ecosystem ; Evolution, Molecular ; *Gene Flow ; Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; Mexico ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Models, Genetic ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Urodela/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Tropical montane taxa are often locally adapted to very specific climatic conditions, contributing to their lower dispersal potential across complex landscapes. Climate and landscape features in montane regions affect population genetic structure in predictable ways, yet few empirical studies quantify the effects of both factors in shaping genetic structure of montane-adapted taxa. Here, we considered temporal and spatial variability in climate to explain contemporary genetic differentiation between populations of the montane salamander, Pseudoeurycea leprosa. Specifically, we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) and measured spatial connectivity and gene flow (using both mtDNA and microsatellite markers) across extant populations of P. leprosa in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TVB). Our results indicate significant spatial and genetic isolation among populations, but we cannot distinguish between isolation by distance over time or current landscape barriers as mechanisms shaping population genetic divergences. Combining ecological niche modelling, spatial connectivity analyses, and historical and contemporary genetic signatures from different classes of genetic markers allows for inference of historical evolutionary processes and predictions of the impacts future climate change will have on the genetic diversity of montane taxa with low dispersal rates. Pseudoeurycea leprosa is one montane species among many endemic to this region and thus is a case study for the continued persistence of spatially and genetically isolated populations in the highly biodiverse TVB of central Mexico.}, }
@article {pmid23705384, year = {2013}, author = {Huang, WH and Sui, Y and Yang, XG and Dai, SW and Li, MS}, title = {[Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of climate change. III. Spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal drought in southern China based on the percentage of precipitation anomalies].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {397-406}, pmid = {23705384}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; *Rain ; Seasons ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; }, abstract = {To analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and occurrence regularity of seasonal drought can provide theoretical basis for constituting the countermeasures of drought resistance and drought mitigation under the background of global climate change. Based on the 1959-2008 daily precipitation and atmospheric temperature data collected from the meteorological stations in 15 provinces (municipalities, and autonomous regions) of southern China, and using the percentages of precipitation anomalies (Pa) in the national standard "Meteorological Drought Classification", which were locally modified, the drought indices in southern China in 1959-2008 were calculated, and the spatial distribution characteristics of drought frequency in southern China in each year, each season, and each month, as well as the inter-annual changes of the drought intensity and the proportions of the stations with seasonal drought were analyzed. In the study period, the annual drought risk in southern China was generally low. There existed obvious seasonal differences in the spatial distribution characteristics of the drought. Autumn drought was most frequent and most intensive, mainly occurred in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, South China and in the other major agricultural areas, winter drought was also frequent and intensive, mainly occurred in the west of Southwest China and the South China and other winter crop planting areas, while spring drought and summer drought were relatively less frequent or intensive. Spring drought mostly occurred in the southwest of Southwest China, the south of South China, and Huaibei area etc. , and summer drought mostly occurred in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, southeastern coastal area of Fujian, and northeast of Southwest China. The area with drought frequently occurred showed an obvious monthly fluctuation and space transformation, which was decreased with time from November to next May, increased with time from May to November, in the smallest range from April to June, and in the widest range from November to December. The annual drought area showed a slight decrease while the drought intensity should a slight increase, but the situation differed with season, i. e. , spring drought area slightly decreased and the drought intensity weakened, summer drought area had an obvious decrease and the drought intensity weakened, autumn drought area increased obviously and the drought intensity increased, while winter drought area decreased and the drought intensity weakened.}, }
@article {pmid23703873, year = {2013}, author = {Golden, HE and Knightes, CD and Conrads, PA and Feaster, TD and Davis, GM and Benedict, ST and Bradley, PM}, title = {Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {32}, number = {9}, pages = {2165-2174}, doi = {10.1002/etc.2284}, pmid = {23703873}, issn = {1552-8618}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Mercury/*analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers/chemistry ; Seasons ; South Carolina ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants/analysis ; }, abstract = {Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.}, }
@article {pmid23701110, year = {2013}, author = {Dominguez-Faus, R and Folberth, C and Liu, J and Jaffe, AM and Alvarez, PJ}, title = {Climate change would increase the water intensity of irrigated corn ethanol.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {47}, number = {11}, pages = {6030-6037}, doi = {10.1021/es400435n}, pmid = {23701110}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Agricultural Irrigation ; Biofuels ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ethanol ; Great Lakes Region ; Groundwater ; Midwestern United States ; *Models, Theoretical ; Water ; Water Supply ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, temperature, and precipitation affect plant growth and evapotranspiration. However, the interactive effects of these factors are relatively unexplored, and it is important to consider their combined effects at geographic and temporal scales that are relevant to policymaking. Accordingly, we estimate how climate change would affect water requirements for irrigated corn ethanol production in key regions of the U.S. over a 40 year horizon. We used the geographic-information-system-based environmental policy integrated climate (GEPIC) model, coupled with temperature and precipitation predictions from five different general circulation models and atmospheric CO2 concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to estimate changes in water requirements and yields for corn ethanol. Simulations infer that climate change would increase the evaporative water consumption of the 15 billion gallons per year of corn ethanol needed to comply with the Energy Independency and Security Act by 10%, from 94 to 102 trillion liters/year (tly), and the irrigation water consumption by 19%, from 10.22 to 12.18 tly. Furthermore, on average, irrigation rates would increase by 9%, while corn yields would decrease by 7%, even when the projected increased irrigation requirements were met. In the irrigation-intensive High Plains, this implies increased pressure for the stressed Ogallala Aquifer, which provides water to seven states and irrigates one-fourth of the grain produced in the U.S. In the Corn Belt and Great Lakes region, where more rainfall is projected, higher water requirements could be related to less frequent rainfall, suggesting a need for additional water catchment capacity. The projected increases in water intensity (i.e., the liters of water required during feedstock cultivation to produce 1 L of corn ethanol) because of climate change highlight the need to re-evaluate the corn ethanol elements of the Renewable Fuel Standard.}, }
@article {pmid23679010, year = {2013}, author = {Parmesan, C and Burrows, MT and Duarte, CM and Poloczanska, ES and Richardson, AJ and Schoeman, DS and Singer, MC}, title = {Beyond climate change attribution in conservation and ecological research.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {58-71}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12098}, pmid = {23679010}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Butterflies/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecology/methods ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Research/*trends ; Research Design ; }, abstract = {There is increasing pressure from policymakers for ecologists to generate more detailed 'attribution' analyses aimed at quantitatively estimating relative contributions of different driving forces, including anthropogenic climate change (ACC), to observed biological changes. Here, we argue that this approach is not productive for ecological studies. Global meta-analyses of diverse species, regions and ecosystems have already given us 'very high confidence' [sensu Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)] that ACC has impacted wild species in a general sense. Further, for well-studied species or systems, synthesis of experiments and models with long-term observations has given us similarly high confidence that they have been impacted by regional climate change (regardless of its cause). However, the role of greenhouse gases in driving these impacts has not been estimated quantitatively. Should this be an ecological research priority? We argue that development of quantitative ecological models for this purpose faces several impediments, particularly the existence of strong, non-additive interactions among different external factors. However, even with current understanding of impacts of global warming, there are myriad climate change adaptation options already developed in the literature that could be, and in fact are being, implemented now.}, }
@article {pmid23700420, year = {2013}, author = {Virkkala, R and Heikkinen, RK and Fronzek, S and Leikola, N}, title = {Climate change, northern birds of conservation concern and matching the hotspots of habitat suitability with the reserve network.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {e63376}, pmid = {23700420}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Finland ; Trees ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051-2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species' probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares ("hotspots") in the four bird species groups in the period 1971-2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051-2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered.}, }
@article {pmid23697303, year = {2013}, author = {Reale, E}, title = {Climate change.}, journal = {Australian nursing journal (July 1993)}, volume = {20}, number = {9}, pages = {18}, pmid = {23697303}, issn = {1320-3185}, mesh = {Australia ; Coal/*adverse effects ; Environmental Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid23696969, year = {2013}, author = {Soto-Correa, JC and Sáenz-Romero, C and Lindig-Cisneros, R and de la Barrera, E}, title = {The neotropical shrub Lupinus elegans, fromtemperate forests, may not adapt to climate change.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {607-610}, doi = {10.1111/j.1438-8677.2012.00716.x}, pmid = {23696969}, issn = {1438-8677}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Analysis of Variance ; Climate Change ; Electrolytes/metabolism ; Lupinus/*physiology ; Mexico ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Considering that their distribution is limited to altitudinal gradients along mountains that are likely to become warmer and drier, climate change poses an increased threat to temperate forest species from tropical regions. We studied whether the understorey shrub Lupinus elegans, endemic to temperate forests of west-central Mexico, will be able to withstand the projected temperature increase under seven climate change scenarios. Seeds were collected along an altitudinal gradient and grown in a shade-house over 7 months before determining their temperature tolerance as electrolyte leakage. The plants from colder sites tolerated lower temperatures, i.e. the temperature at which half of the maximum electrolyte leakage occurred (LT50), ranged from −6.4 ± 0.7 to −2.4 ± 0.3 °C. In contrast, no pattern was found for tolerance to high temperature (LT50 average 42.8 ± 0.3 °C). The climate change scenarios considered here consistently estimated an increase in air temperature during the present century that was higher for the maximum air temperature than for the mean or minimum. In particular, the anomaly from the normal maximum air temperature at the study region ranged from 2.8 °C by 2030 to 5.8 °C by 2090. In this respect, the inability of L. elegans to adapt to increasingly higher temperatures found here, in addition to a possible inhibition of reproduction caused by warmer winters, may limit its future distribution.}, }
@article {pmid23695699, year = {2013}, author = {Ziegler, M and Simon, MH and Hall, IR and Barker, S and Stringer, C and Zahn, R}, title = {Development of Middle Stone Age innovation linked to rapid climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {1905}, pmid = {23695699}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Africa ; Archaeology ; Calibration ; Carbon Radioisotopes ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; Geologic Sediments ; Humans ; *Inventions ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Spectrometry, X-Ray Emission ; Spectrophotometry, Atomic ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The development of modernity in early human populations has been linked to pulsed phases of technological and behavioural innovation within the Middle Stone Age of South Africa. However, the trigger for these intermittent pulses of technological innovation is an enigma. Here we show that, contrary to some previous studies, the occurrence of innovation was tightly linked to abrupt climate change. Major innovational pulses occurred at times when South African climate changed rapidly towards more humid conditions, while northern sub-Saharan Africa experienced widespread droughts, as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling. These millennial-scale teleconnections resulted from the bipolar seesaw behaviour of the Atlantic Ocean related to changes in the ocean circulation. These conditions led to humid pulses in South Africa and potentially to the creation of favourable environmental conditions. This strongly implies that innovational pulses of early modern human behaviour were climatically influenced and linked to the adoption of refugia.}, }
@article {pmid23694972, year = {2013}, author = {Larson, KL and Polsky, C and Gober, P and Chang, H and Shandas, V}, title = {Vulnerability of water systems to the effects of climate change and urbanization: a comparison of Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon (USA).}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {52}, number = {1}, pages = {179-195}, pmid = {23694972}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Arizona ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Oregon ; *Urbanization ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The coupled processes of climate change and urbanization pose challenges for water resource management in cities worldwide. Comparing the vulnerabilities of water systems in Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon, this paper examines (1) exposures to these stressors, (2) sensitivities to the associated impacts, and (3) adaptive capacities for responding to realized or anticipated impacts. Based on a case study and survey-based approach, common points of vulnerability include: rising exposures to drier, warmer summers, and suburban growth; increasing sensitivities based on demand hardening; and limited capacities due to institutional and pro-growth pressures. Yet each region also exhibits unique vulnerabilities. Comparatively, Portland shows: amplified exposures to seasonal climatic extremes, heightened sensitivity based on less diversified municipal water sources and policies that favor more trees and other irrigated vegetation, and diminished adaptive capacities because of limited attention to demand management and climate planning for water resources. Phoenix exhibits elevated exposure from rapid growth, heightened sensitivities due to high water demands and widespread increases in residential and commercial uses, and limited adaptive capacities due to weak land use planning and "smart growth" strategies. Unique points of vulnerability suggest pathways for adapting to urban-environmental change, whether through water management or land planning. Greater coordination between the land and water sectors would substantially reduce vulnerabilities in the study regions and beyond.}, }
@article {pmid23692016, year = {2013}, author = {Peh, KS and Schrodt, F}, title = {Application of lessons from the Euro crisis to climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {439-440}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12054}, pmid = {23692016}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Economics ; European Union ; }, }
@article {pmid23691663, year = {2013}, author = {Liancourt, P and Spence, LA and Song, DS and Lkhagva, A and Sharkhuu, A and Boldgiv, B and Helliker, BR and Petraitis, PS and Casper, BB}, title = {Plant response to climate change varies with topography, interactions with neighbors, and ecotype.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {94}, number = {2}, pages = {444-453}, doi = {10.1890/12-0780.1}, pmid = {23691663}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Festuca/*classification/*growth &amp; development ; Mongolia ; Species Specificity ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Predicting the future of any given species represents an unprecedented challenge in light of the many environmental and biological factors that affect organismal performance and that also interact with drivers of global change. In a three-year experiment set in the Mongolian steppe, we examined the response of the common grass Festuca lenensis to manipulated temperature and water while controlling for topographic variation, plant-plant interactions, and ecotypic differentiation. Plant survival and growth responses to a warmer, drier climate varied within the landscape. Response to simulated increased precipitation occurred only in the absence of neighbors, demonstrating that plant-plant interactions can supersede the effects of climate change. F. lenensis also showed evidence of local adaptation in populations that were only 300 m apart. Individuals from the steep and dry upper slope showed a higher stress/drought tolerance, whereas those from the more productive lower slope showed a higher biomass production and a greater ability to cope with competition. Moreover, the response of this species to increased precipitation was ecotype specific, with water addition benefiting only the least stress-tolerant ecotype from the lower slope origin. This multifaceted approach illustrates the importance of placing climate change experiments within a realistic ecological and evolutionary framework. Existing sources of variation impacting plant performance may buffer or obscure climate change effects.}, }
@article {pmid23690960, year = {2013}, author = {Seth, H and Gräns, A and Sandblom, E and Olsson, C and Wiklander, K and Johnsson, JI and Axelsson, M}, title = {Metabolic scope and interspecific competition in sculpins of Greenland are influenced by increased temperatures due to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {e62859}, pmid = {23690960}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Basal Metabolism ; Competitive Behavior ; Fishes/classification/*metabolism/physiology ; *Global Warming ; Greenland ; Species Specificity ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change has led to an increase in sea surface temperatures of 2-4°C on the west coast of Greenland. Since fish are ectothermic, metabolic rate increases with ambient temperature. This makes these animals particularly sensitive to changes in temperature; subsequently any change may influence their metabolic scope, i.e. the physiological capacity to undertake aerobically challenging activities. Any temperature increase may thus disrupt species-specific temperature adaptations, at both the molecular level as well as in behavior, and concomitant species differences in the temperature sensitivity may shift the competitive balance among coexisting species. We investigated the influence of temperature on metabolic scope and competitive ability in three species of marine sculpin that coexist in Greenland coastal waters. Since these species have different distribution ranges, we hypothesized that there should be a difference in their physiological response to temperature; hence we compared their metabolic scope at three temperatures (4, 9 and 14°C). Their competitive ability at the ambient temperature of 9°C was also tested in an attempt to link physiological capacity with behaviour. The Arctic staghorn sculpin, the species with the northernmost distribution range, had a lower metabolic scope in the higher temperature range compared to the other two species, which had similar metabolic scope at the three temperatures. The Arctic staghorn sculpin also had reduced competitive ability at 9°C and may thus already be negatively affected by the current ocean warming. Our results suggest that climate change can have effects on fish physiology and interspecific competition, which may alter the species composition of the Arctic fish fauna.}, }
@article {pmid23690959, year = {2013}, author = {Naish, S and Mengersen, K and Hu, W and Tong, S}, title = {Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {e62843}, pmid = {23690959}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Alphavirus/*isolation &amp; purification ; Alphavirus Infections/*epidemiology/virology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Culicidae/virology ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Insect Vectors ; Models, Theoretical ; Queensland/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.<br><br>METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.}, }
@article {pmid23690593, year = {2013}, author = {Foster, LC and Schmidt, DN and Thomas, E and Arndt, S and Ridgwell, A}, title = {Surviving rapid climate change in the deep sea during the Paleogene hyperthermals.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {23}, pages = {9273-9276}, pmid = {23690593}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*physiology ; Atmosphere/*analysis ; Calcification, Physiologic/*physiology ; Calcium Carbonate/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Foraminifera/*chemistry/physiology ; History, Ancient ; Oceans and Seas ; Synchrotrons ; Tomography, X-Ray ; }, abstract = {Predicting the impact of ongoing anthropogenic CO2 emissions on calcifying marine organisms is complex, owing to the synergy between direct changes (acidification) and indirect changes through climate change (e.g., warming, changes in ocean circulation, and deoxygenation). Laboratory experiments, particularly on longer-lived organisms, tend to be too short to reveal the potential of organisms to acclimatize, adapt, or evolve and usually do not incorporate multiple stressors. We studied two examples of rapid carbon release in the geological record, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (∼53.2 Ma) and the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ∼55.5 Ma), the best analogs over the last 65 Ma for future ocean acidification related to high atmospheric CO2 levels. We use benthic foraminifers, which suffered severe extinction during the PETM, as a model group. Using synchrotron radiation X-ray tomographic microscopy, we reconstruct the calcification response of survivor species and find, contrary to expectations, that calcification significantly increased during the PETM. In contrast, there was no significant response to the smaller Eocene Thermal Maximum 2, which was associated with a minor change in diversity only. These observations suggest that there is a response threshold for extinction and calcification response, while highlighting the utility of the geological record in helping constrain the sensitivity of biotic response to environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid23690569, year = {2013}, author = {Blois, JL and Williams, JW and Fitzpatrick, MC and Jackson, ST and Ferrier, S}, title = {Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {23}, pages = {9374-9379}, pmid = {23690569}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Demography ; Ecology/methods ; *Fossils ; *Models, Biological ; North America ; *Plants ; Pollen/chemistry ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {"Space-for-time" substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption--that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity--rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and across space from Late Quaternary pollen records in eastern North America, then modeling climate-driven compositional turnover. Predictions relying on space-for-time substitution were ∼72% as accurate as "time-for-time" predictions. However, space-for-time substitution performed poorly during the Holocene when temporal variation in climate was small relative to spatial variation and required subsampling to match the extent of spatial and temporal climatic gradients. Despite this caution, our results generally support the judicious use of space-for-time substitution in modeling community responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23687884, year = {2013}, author = {Tafani, M and Cohas, A and Bonenfant, C and Gaillard, JM and Allainé, D}, title = {Decreasing litter size of marmots over time: a life history response to climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {94}, number = {3}, pages = {580-586}, doi = {10.1890/12-0833.1}, pmid = {23687884}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Weight ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Litter Size/*physiology ; Marmota/*physiology ; Pregnancy ; Seasons ; Snow ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The way that plants and animals respond to climate change varies widely among species, but the biological features underlying their actual response remains largely unknown. Here, from a 20-year monitoring study, we document a continuous decrease in litter size of the Alpine marmot (Marmota marmota) since 1990. To cope with harsh winters, Alpine marmots hibernate in burrows and their reproductive output should depend more on spring conditions compared to animals that are active year-round. However, we show that litter size decreased over time because of the general thinning of winter snow cover that has been repeatedly reported to occur in the Alps over the same period, despite a positive effect of an earlier snowmelt in spring. Our results contrast markedly with a recent study on North American yellow-bellied marmots, suggesting that between-species differences in life histories can lead to opposite responses to climate change, even between closely related species. Our case study therefore demonstrates the idiosyncratic nature of the response to climate change and emphasizes, even for related species with similar ecological niches, that it may be hazardous to extrapolate life history responses to climate change from one species to another.}, }
@article {pmid23687635, year = {2013}, author = {Barne, C and Alexis, NE and Bernstein, JA and Cohn, JR and Demain, JG and Horner, E and Levetin, E and Nei, A and Phipatanakul, W}, title = {Climate change and our environment: the effect on respiratory and allergic disease.}, journal = {The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. In practice}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {137-141}, pmid = {23687635}, issn = {2213-2198}, support = {R01 AI073964/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*etiology ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*etiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a constant and ongoing process. It is postulated that human activities have reached a point at which we are producing global climate change. It provides suggestions to help the allergist/environmental physician integrate recommendations about improvements in outdoor and indoor air quality and the likely response to predicted alterations in the earth's environment into his or her patient's treatment plan. It incorporates references retrieved from Pub Med searches for topics, including:climate change, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gasses, air pollution, particulates, black carbon, soot and sea level, as well as references contributed by the individual authors. Many changes that affect respiratory disease are anticipated.Examples of responses to climate change include energy reduction retrofits in homes that could potentially affect exposure to allergens and irritants, more hot sunny days that increase ozone-related difficulties, and rises in sea level or altered rainfall patterns that increase exposure to damp indoor environments.Climate changes can also affect ecosystems, manifested as the appearance of stinging and biting arthropods in new areas.Higher ambient carbon dioxide concentrations, warmer temperatures, and changes in floristic zones could potentially increase exposure to ragweed and other outdoor allergens,whereas green practices such as composting can increase allergen and irritant exposure. Finally, increased energy costs may resultin urban crowding and human source pollution, leading to changes in patterns of infectious respiratory illnesses. Improved governmental controls on airborne pollutants could lead to cleaner air and reduced respiratory diseases but will meet strong opposition because of their effect on business productivity. The allergy community must therefore adapt, as physician and research scientists always have, by anticipating the needs of patients and by adopting practices and research methods to meet changing environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid23687062, year = {2013}, author = {Al-Chokhachy, R and Alder, J and Hostetler, S and Gresswell, R and Shepard, B}, title = {Thermal controls of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and invasive fishes under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {3069-3081}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12262}, pmid = {23687062}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Idaho ; *Introduced Species ; *Models, Biological ; Montana ; Nevada ; Rivers ; Temperature ; Trout/*growth &amp; development ; Wyoming ; }, abstract = {We combine large observed data sets and dynamically downscaled climate data to explore historic and future (2050-2069) stream temperature changes over the topographically diverse Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (elevation range = 824-4017 m). We link future stream temperatures with fish growth models to investigate how changing thermal regimes could influence the future distribution and persistence of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT) and competing invasive species. We find that stream temperatures during the recent decade (2000-2009) surpass the anomalously warm period of the 1930s. Climate simulations indicate air temperatures will warm by 1 °C to >3 °C over the Greater Yellowstone by mid-21st century, resulting in concomitant increases in 2050-2069 peak stream temperatures and protracted periods of warming from May to September (MJJAS). Projected changes in thermal regimes during the MJJAS growing season modify the trajectories of daily growth rates at all elevations with pronounced growth during early and late summer. For high-elevation populations, we find considerable increases in fish body mass attributable both to warming of cold-water temperatures and to extended growing seasons. During peak July to August warming, mid-21st century temperatures will cause periods of increased thermal stress, rendering some low-elevation streams less suitable for YCT. The majority (80%) of sites currently inhabited by YCT, however, display minimal loss (<10%) or positive changes in total body mass by midcentury; we attribute this response to the fact that many low-elevation populations of YCT have already been extirpated by historical changes in land use and invasions of non-native species. Our results further suggest that benefits to YCT populations due to warmer stream temperatures at currently cold sites could be offset by the interspecific effects of corresponding growth of sympatric, non-native species, underscoring the importance of developing climate adaptation strategies that reduce limiting factors such as non-native species and habitat degradation.}, }
@article {pmid23685851, year = {2013}, author = {Sahu, S and Sett, M and Kjellstrom, T}, title = {Heat exposure, cardiovascular stress and work productivity in rice harvesters in India: implications for a climate change future.}, journal = {Industrial health}, volume = {51}, number = {4}, pages = {424-431}, doi = {10.2486/indhealth.2013-0006}, pmid = {23685851}, issn = {1880-8026}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Agriculture ; Climate Change ; *Efficiency ; Fatigue/etiology ; Heart Rate ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; India ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Musculoskeletal Pain/etiology ; Occupational Exposure/*adverse effects ; Stress, Physiological/*physiology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Excessive workplace heat exposures create well-known risks of heat stroke, and it limits the workers' capacity to sustain physical activity. There is very limited evidence available on how these effects reduce work productivity, while the quantitative relationship between heat and work productivity is an essential basis for climate change impact assessments. We measured hourly heat exposure in rice fields in West Bengal and recorded perceived health problems via interviews of 124 rice harvesters. In a sub-group (n = 48) heart rate was recorded every minute in a standard work situation. Work productivity was recorded as hourly rice bundle collection output. The hourly heat levels (WBGT = Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) were 26-32°C (at air temperatures of 30-38°C), exceeding international standards. Most workers reported exhaustion and pain during work on hot days. Heart rate recovered quickly at low heat, but more slowly at high heat, indicating cardiovascular strain. The hourly number of rice bundles collected was significantly reduced at WBGT>26°C (approximately 5% per°C of increased WBGT). We conclude that high heat exposure in agriculture caused heat strain and reduced work productivity. This reduction will be exacerbated by climate change and may undermine the local economy.}, }
@article {pmid23676749, year = {2013}, author = {Payne, MR}, title = {Fisheries: climate change at the dinner table.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {497}, number = {7449}, pages = {320-321}, pmid = {23676749}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fishes/*classification/*physiology ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Seawater ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid23675820, year = {2013}, author = {Lovegrove, BG and Mowoe, MO}, title = {The evolution of mammal body sizes: responses to Cenozoic climate change in North American mammals.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, pages = {1317-1329}, doi = {10.1111/jeb.12138}, pmid = {23675820}, issn = {1420-9101}, mesh = {Animals ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Mammals/*anatomy &amp; histology ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Explanations for the evolution of body size in mammals have remained surprisingly elusive despite the central importance of body size in evolutionary biology. Here, we present a model which argues that the body sizes of Nearctic mammals were moulded by Cenozoic climate and vegetation changes. Following the early Eocene Climate Optimum, forests retreated and gave way to open woodland and savannah landscapes, followed later by grasslands. Many herbivores that radiated in these new landscapes underwent a switch from browsing to grazing associated with increased unguligrade cursoriality and body size, the latter driven by the energetics and constraints of cellulose digestion (fermentation). Carnivores also increased in size and digitigrade, cursorial capacity to occupy a size distribution allowing the capture of prey of the widest range of body sizes. With the emergence of larger, faster carnivores, plantigrade mammals were constrained from evolving to large body sizes and most remained smaller than 1 kg throughout the middle Cenozoic. We find no consistent support for either Cope's Rule or Bergmann's Rule in plantigrade mammals, the largest locomotor guild (n = 1186, 59% of species in the database). Some cold-specialist plantigrade mammals, such as beavers and marmots, showed dramatic increases in body mass following the Miocene Climate Optimum which may, however, be partially explained by Bergmann's rule. This study reemphasizes the necessity of considering the evolutionary history and resultant form and function of mammalian morphotypes when attempting to understand contemporary mammalian body size distributions.}, }
@article {pmid23674240, year = {2013}, author = {Joshi, S and Jasra, WA and Ismail, M and Shrestha, RM and Yi, SL and Wu, N}, title = {Herders' perceptions of and responses to climate change in northern Pakistan.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {639-648}, pmid = {23674240}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Animal Husbandry ; *Climate Change ; Herbivory ; Humans ; Pakistan ; Public Opinion ; *Rural Population ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Migratory pastoralism is an adaptation to a harsh and unstable environment, and pastoral herders have traditionally adapted to environmental and climatic change by building on their in-depth knowledge of this environment. In the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, and particularly in the arid and semiarid areas of northern Pakistan, pastoralism, the main livelihood, is vulnerable to climate change. Little detailed information is available about climate trends and impacts in remote mountain regions; herders' perceptions of climate change can provide the information needed by policy makers to address problems and make decisions on adaptive strategies in high pastoral areas. A survey was conducted in Gilgit-Baltistan province of Pakistan to assess herders' perceptions of, and adaptation strategies to climate change. Herders' perceptions were gathered in individual interviews and focus group discussions. The herders perceived a change in climate over the past 10-15 years with longer and more intense droughts in summer, more frequent and heavier snowfall in winter, and prolonged summers and relatively shorter winters. These perceptions were validated by published scientific evidence. The herders considered that the change in climate had directly impacted pastures and then livestock by changing vegetation composition and reducing forage yield. They had adopted some adaptive strategies in response to the change such as altering the migration pattern and diversifying livelihoods. The findings show that the herder communities have practical lessons and indigenous knowledge related to rangeland management and adaptation to climate change that should be shared with the scientific community and integrated into development planning.}, }
@article {pmid23673855, year = {2013}, author = {Randalls, S}, title = {Climate change policy failures: why conventional mitigation approaches cannot succeed.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {42}, number = {2}, pages = {621}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2013.0001br}, pmid = {23673855}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid23673764, year = {2013}, author = {Guo, M}, title = {Living in denial: climate change, emotions, and everyday life.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {42}, number = {1}, pages = {292}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2012.0004br}, pmid = {23673764}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Emotions ; }, }
@article {pmid23673578, year = {2013}, author = {Abelsohn, A and Rachlis, V and Vakil, C}, title = {Climate change: should family physicians and family medicine organizations pay attention?.}, journal = {Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien}, volume = {59}, number = {5}, pages = {462-466}, pmid = {23673578}, issn = {1715-5258}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; Environmental Health/*methods/organization &amp; administration ; Family Practice/*methods/organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Physicians, Family/organization &amp; administration/*standards ; }, }
@article {pmid23670600, year = {2013}, author = {Rudolf, VH and Singh, M}, title = {Disentangling climate change effects on species interactions: effects of temperature, phenological shifts, and body size.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {173}, number = {3}, pages = {1043-1052}, pmid = {23670600}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Animals ; Anura/*growth &amp; development ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Competitive Behavior/*physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Larva/physiology ; Likelihood Functions ; Linear Models ; Metamorphosis, Biological/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Texas ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate-mediated shifts in species' phenologies are expected to alter species interactions, but predicting the consequences of this is difficult because phenological shifts may be driven by different climate factors that may or may not be correlated. Temperature could be an important factor determining effects of phenological shifts by altering species' growth rates and thereby the relative size ratios of interacting species. We tested this hypothesis by independently manipulating temperature and the relative hatching phenologies of two competing amphibian species. Relative shifts in hatching time generally altered the strength of competition, but the presence and magnitude of this effect was temperature dependent and joint effects of temperature and hatching phenology were non-additive. Species that hatched relatively early or late performed significantly better or worse, respectively, but only at higher temperatures and not at lower temperatures. As a consequence, climate-mediated shifts in hatching phenology or temperature resulted in stronger or weaker effects than expected when both factors acted in concert. Furthermore, consequences of phenological shifts were asymmetric; arriving relatively early had disproportional stronger (or weaker) effects than arriving relatively late, and this varied with species identity. However, consistent with recent theory, these seemingly idiosyncratic effects of phenological shifts could be explained by species-specific differences in growth rates across temperatures and concordant shifts in relative body size of interacting species. Our results emphasize the need to account for environmental conditions when predicting the effects of phenological shifts, and suggest that shifts in size-structured interactions can mediate the impact of climate change on natural communities.}, }
@article {pmid23666800, year = {2013}, author = {Pickles, RS and Thornton, D and Feldman, R and Marques, A and Murray, DL}, title = {Predicting shifts in parasite distribution with climate change: a multitrophic level approach.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {2645-2654}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12255}, pmid = {23666800}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Deer/*parasitology ; Feces/parasitology ; Models, Theoretical ; Strongylida/*isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {Climate change likely will lead to increasingly favourable environmental conditions for many parasites. However, predictions regarding parasitism's impacts often fail to account for the likely variability in host distribution and how this may alter parasite occurrence. Here, we investigate potential distributional shifts in the meningeal worm, Parelaphostrongylosis tenuis, a protostrongylid nematode commonly found in white-tailed deer in North America, whose life cycle also involves a free-living stage and a gastropod intermediate host. We modelled the distribution of the hosts and free-living larva as a complete assemblage to assess whether a complex trophic system will lead to an overall increase in parasite distribution with climate change, or whether divergent environmental niches may promote an ecological mismatch. Using an ensemble approach to climate modelling under two different carbon emission scenarios, we show that whereas the overall trend is for an increase in niche breadth for each species, mismatches arise in habitat suitability of the free-living larva vs. the definitive and intermediate hosts. By incorporating these projected mismatches into a combined model, we project a shift in parasite distribution accounting for all steps in the transmission cycle, and identify that overall habitat suitability of the parasite will decline in the Great Plains and southeastern USA, but will increase in the Boreal Forest ecoregion, particularly in Alberta. These results have important implications for wildlife conservation and management due to the known pathogenicity of parelaphostrongylosis to alternate hosts including moose, caribou and elk. Our results suggest that disease risk forecasts which fail to consider biotic interactions may be overly simplistic, and that accounting for each of the parasite's life stages is key to refining predicted responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23665996, year = {2014}, author = {Macpherson, CC}, title = {Climate change matters.}, journal = {Journal of medical ethics}, volume = {40}, number = {4}, pages = {288-290}, doi = {10.1136/medethics-2012-101084}, pmid = {23665996}, issn = {1473-4257}, mesh = {Bioethical Issues ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Policy/*trends ; Global Health ; Human Rights ; Humans ; *Life Style ; *Population Growth ; Public Health/*ethics ; *Social Justice ; *Social Values ; Virtues ; Western World ; }, abstract = {One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.}, }
@article {pmid23663654, year = {2013}, author = {Lemay, MA and Henry, P and Lamb, CT and Robson, KM and Russello, MA}, title = {Novel genomic resources for a climate change sensitive mammal: characterization of the American pika transcriptome.}, journal = {BMC genomics}, volume = {14}, number = {}, pages = {311}, pmid = {23663654}, issn = {1471-2164}, mesh = {Amino Acid Sequence ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Contig Mapping ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Environment ; *Gene Expression Profiling ; Gene Library ; Genomics/*methods ; Haplotypes ; High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing ; Lagomorpha/*genetics ; Molecular Sequence Data ; NADH Dehydrogenase/chemistry/genetics ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide/genetics ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: When faced with climate change, species must either shift their home range or adapt in situ in order to maintain optimal physiological balance with their environment. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is a small alpine mammal with limited dispersal capacity and low tolerance for thermal stress. As a result, pikas have become an important system for examining biotic responses to changing climatic conditions. Previous research using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) has revealed evidence for environmental-mediated selection in O. princeps populations distributed along elevation gradients, yet the anonymity of AFLP loci and lack of available genomic resources precluded the identification of associated gene regions. Here, we harnessed next-generation sequencing technology in order to characterize the American pika transcriptome and identify a large suite of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), which can be used to elucidate elevation- and site-specific patterns of sequence variation.<br><br>RESULTS: We constructed pooled cDNA libraries of O. princeps from high (1400 m) and low (300 m) elevation sites along a previously established transect in British Columbia. Transcriptome sequencing using the Roche 454 GS FLX titanium platform generated 780 million base pairs of data, which were assembled into 7,325 high coverage contigs. These contigs were used to identify 24,261 novel SNP loci. Using high resolution melt analysis, we developed 17 of these SNPs into genotyping assays, which were validated with independent DNA samples from British Columbia Canada and Oregon State USA. In addition, we detected haplotypes in the NADH dehydrogenase subunit 5 of the mitochondrial genome that were fixed and different among elevations, suggesting that this may be an informative target gene for studying the role of cellular respiration in local adaptation. We also identified contigs that were unique to each elevation, including a high elevation-specific contig that was a positive match with the hemoglobin alpha chain from the plateau pika, a species restricted to high elevation steppes in Asia. Elevation-specific contigs may represent candidate regions subject to differential levels of gene expression along this elevation gradient.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first broad-scale, transcriptome-level study conducted within the Ochotonidae, providing novel genomic resources for studying pika ecology, behaviour and population history.}, }
@article {pmid23662736, year = {2014}, author = {Buckley, LB and Nufio, CR and Kingsolver, JG}, title = {Phenotypic clines, energy balances and ecological responses to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {83}, number = {1}, pages = {41-50}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12083}, pmid = {23662736}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; *Energy Metabolism ; Hot Temperature ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {The Metabolic Theory of Ecology has renewed interest in using energetics to scale across levels of ecological organization. Can scaling from individual phenotypes to population dynamics provides insight into why species have shifted their phenologies, abundances and distributions idiosyncratically in response to recent climate change? We consider how the energetic implications of phenotypes may scale to understand population and species level responses to climate change using four focal grasshopper species along an elevation gradient in Colorado. We use a biophysical model to translate phenotypes and environmental conditions into estimates of body temperatures. We measure thermal tolerances and preferences and metabolic rates to assess rates of energy use and acquisition. Body mass declines along the elevation gradient for all species, but mass-specific metabolic rates increases only modestly. We find interspecific differences in both overall thermal tolerances and preferences and in the variation of these metrics along the elevation gradient. The more dispersive species exhibit significantly higher thermal tolerance and preference consistent with much of their range spanning hot, low elevation areas. When integrating these metrics to consider metabolic constraints, we find that energetic costs decrease along the elevation gradient due to decreasing body size and temperature. Opportunities for energy acquisition, as reflected by the proportion of time that falls within a grasshopper's thermal tolerance range, peak at mid elevations. We discuss methods for translating these energetic metrics into population dynamics. Quantifying energy balances and allocation offers a viable approach for predicting how populations will respond to climate change and the consequences for species composed of populations that may be locally adapted.}, }
@article {pmid23661358, year = {2013}, author = {Logan, ML and Huynh, RK and Precious, RA and Calsbeek, RG}, title = {The impact of climate change measured at relevant spatial scales: new hope for tropical lizards.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {3093-3102}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12253}, pmid = {23661358}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Temperature ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Lizards/*physiology ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; Trees ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Much attention has been given to recent predictions that widespread extinctions of tropical ectotherms, and tropical forest lizards in particular, will result from anthropogenic climate change. Most of these predictions, however, are based on environmental temperature data measured at a maximum resolution of 1 km(2), whereas individuals of most species experience thermal variation on a much finer scale. To address this disconnect, we combined thermal performance curves for five populations of Anolis lizard from the Bay Islands of Honduras with high-resolution temperature distributions generated from physical models. Previous research has suggested that open-habitat species are likely to invade forest habitat and drive forest species to extinction. We test this hypothesis, and compare the vulnerabilities of closely related, but allopatric, forest species. Our data suggest that the open-habitat populations we studied will not invade forest habitat and may actually benefit from predicted warming for many decades. Conversely, one of the forest species we studied should experience reduced activity time as a result of warming, while two others are unlikely to experience a significant decline in performance. Our results suggest that global-scale predictions generated using low-resolution temperature data may overestimate the vulnerability of many tropical ectotherms to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23661287, year = {2013}, author = {Tao, F and Zhang, Z and Shi, W and Liu, Y and Xiao, D and Zhang, S and Zhu, Z and Wang, M and Liu, F}, title = {Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts, but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {3200-3209}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12250}, pmid = {23661287}, issn = {1365-2486}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change/*history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Models, Theoretical ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development/history ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Based on the crop trial data during 1981-2009 at 57 agricultural experimental stations across the North Eastern China Plain (NECP) and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR), we investigated how major climate variables had changed and how the climate change had affected crop growth and yield in a setting in which agronomic management practices were taken based on actual weather. We found a significant warming trend during rice growing season, and a general decreasing trend in solar radiation (SRD) in the MLRYR during 1981-2009. Rice transplanting, heading, and maturity dates were generally advanced, but the heading and maturity dates of single rice in the MLRYR (YZ_SR) and NECP (NE_SR) were delayed. Climate warming had a negative impact on growth period lengths at about 80% of the investigated stations. Nevertheless, the actual growth period lengths of YZ_SR and NE_SR, as well as the actual length of reproductive growth period (RGP) of early rice in the MLRYR (YZ_ER), were generally prolonged due to adoption of cultivars with longer growth period to obtain higher yield. In contrast, the actual growth period length of late rice in the MLRYR (YZ_LR) was shortened by both climate warming and adoption of early mature cultivars to prevent cold damage and obtain higher yield. During 1981-2009, climate warming and decrease in SRD changed the yield of YZ_ER by -0.59 to 2.4%; climate warming during RGP increased the yield of YZ_LR by 8.38-9.56%; climate warming and decrease in SRD jointly reduced yield of YZ_SR by 7.14-9.68%; climate warming and increase in SRD jointly increased the yield of NE_SR by 1.01-3.29%. Our study suggests that rice production in China has been affected by climate change, yet at the same time changes in varieties continue to be the major factor driving yield and growing period trends.}, }
@article {pmid23660520, year = {2013}, author = {Bangash, RF and Passuello, A and Sanchez-Canales, M and Terrado, M and López, A and Elorza, FJ and Ziv, G and Acuña, V and Schuhmacher, M}, title = {Ecosystem services in Mediterranean river basin: climate change impact on water provisioning and erosion control.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {458-460}, number = {}, pages = {246-255}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.04.025}, pmid = {23660520}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/trends ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Mediterranean Region ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Soil ; Spain ; Water Supply/*standards ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean basin is considered one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to climate change and such changes impact the capacity of ecosystems to provide goods and services to human society. The predicted future scenarios for this region present an increased frequency of floods and extended droughts, especially at the Iberian Peninsula. This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change on the water provisioning and erosion control services in the densely populated Mediterranean Llobregat river basin of. The assessment of ecosystem services and their mapping at the basin scale identify the current pressures on the river basin including the source area in the Pyrenees Mountains. Drinking water provisioning is expected to decrease between 3 and 49%, while total hydropower production will decrease between 5 and 43%. Erosion control will be reduced by up to 23%, indicating that costs for dredging the reservoirs as well as for treating drinking water will also increase. Based on these data, the concept for an appropriate quantification and related spatial visualization of ecosystem service is elaborated and discussed.}, }
@article {pmid23660441, year = {2013}, author = {Wendling, CC and Huhn, M and Ayu, N and Bachtiar, R and von Juterzenka, K and Lenz, M}, title = {Habitat degradation correlates with tolerance to climate-change related stressors in the green mussel Perna viridis from West Java, Indonesia.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {71}, number = {1-2}, pages = {222-229}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2013.03.004}, pmid = {23660441}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Eutrophication ; Indonesia ; Perna/*physiology ; Salinity ; Seawater/chemistry ; *Stress, Physiological ; Water Pollutants/analysis ; Water Pollution/analysis/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {It is unclear whether habitat degradation correlates with tolerance of marine invertebrates to abiotic stress. We therefore tested whether resistance to climate change-related stressors differs between populations of the green mussel Perna viridis from a heavily impacted and a mostly pristine site in West Java, Indonesia. In laboratory experiments, we compared their oxygen consumption and mortality under lowered salinity (-13 and -18 units, both responses), hypoxia (0.5 mg/l, mortality only) and thermal stress (+7 °C, mortality only). Mussels from the eutrophied and polluted Jakarta Bay showed a significantly smaller deviation from their normal oxygen consumption and higher survival rates when stressed than their conspecifics from the unaffected Lada Bay. This shows that human induced habitat degradation correlates with mussel tolerance to environmental stress. We discuss possible mechanisms - e.g. the selection of tolerant genotypes or habitat-specific differences in the nutritional status of the mussels - that could explain our observation.}, }
@article {pmid23658726, year = {2013}, author = {Brotons, L and Aquilué, N and de Cáceres, M and Fortin, MJ and Fall, A}, title = {How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {e62392}, pmid = {23658726}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Firefighters ; Fires/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Mediterranean Region ; *Models, Statistical ; Stochastic Processes ; }, abstract = {Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and socioeconomic factors such as fire suppression strategies.}, }
@article {pmid23658198, year = {2013}, author = {Yeakel, JD and Guimarães, PR and Bocherens, H and Koch, PL}, title = {The impact of climate change on the structure of Pleistocene food webs across the mammoth steppe.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {280}, number = {1762}, pages = {20130239}, pmid = {23658198}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Alaska ; Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Biota ; Carbon Isotopes/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; *Environment ; Europe ; *Food Chain ; Fossils ; Mammals/*physiology ; Nitrogen Isotopes/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Species interactions form food webs, impacting community structure and, potentially, ecological dynamics. It is likely that global climatic perturbations that occur over long periods of time have a significant influence on species interaction patterns. Here, we integrate stable isotope analysis and network theory to reconstruct patterns of trophic interactions for six independent mammalian communities that inhabited mammoth steppe environments spanning western Europe to eastern Alaska (Beringia) during the Late Pleistocene. We use a Bayesian mixing model to quantify the contribution of prey to the diets of local predators, and assess how the structure of trophic interactions changed across space and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a global climatic event that severely impacted mammoth steppe communities. We find that large felids had diets that were more constrained than those of co-occurring predators, and largely influenced by an increase in Rangifer abundance after the LGM. Moreover, the structural organization of Beringian and European communities strongly differed: compared with Europe, species interactions in Beringian communities before--and possibly after--the LGM were highly modular. We suggest that this difference in modularity may have been driven by the geographical insularity of Beringian communities.}, }
@article {pmid23657332, year = {2013}, author = {Solow, AR}, title = {Global warming: A call for peace on climate and conflict.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {497}, number = {7448}, pages = {179-180}, pmid = {23657332}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Communication ; *Conflict, Psychological ; Models, Statistical ; Policy Making ; *Research Personnel/psychology ; Temperature ; *Warfare ; }, }
@article {pmid23653920, year = {2013}, author = {Stordalen, GA and Rocklöv, J and Nilsson, M and Byass, P}, title = {Only an integrated approach across academia, enterprise, governments, and global agencies can tackle the public health impact of climate change.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {20513}, pmid = {23653920}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Commerce ; Developing Countries ; *Government Agencies ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; *Public Health ; *Universities ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Despite considerable global attention to the issues of climate change, relatively little priority has been given to the likely effects on human health of current and future changes in the global climate. We identify three major societal determinants that influence the impact of climate change on human health, namely the application of scholarship and knowledge; economic and commercial considerations; and actions of governments and global agencies.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The three major areas are each discussed in terms of the ways in which they facilitate and frustrate attempts to protect human health from the effects of climate change. Academia still pays very little attention to the effects of climate on health in poorer countries. Enterprise is starting to recognise that healthy commerce depends on healthy people, and so climate change presents long-term threats if it compromises health. Governments and international agencies are very active, but often face immovable vested interests in other sectors. Overall, there tends to be too little interaction between the three areas, and this means that potential synergies and co-benefits are not always realised.<br><br>CONCLUSION: More attention from academia, enterprise, and international agencies needs to be given to the potential threats the climate change presents to human health. However, there needs to also be much closer collaboration between all three areas in order to capitalise on possible synergies that can be achieved between them.}, }
@article {pmid23650401, year = {2013}, author = {Wroe, S and Field, JH and Archer, M and Grayson, DK and Price, GJ and Louys, J and Faith, JT and Webb, GE and Davidson, I and Mooney, SD}, title = {Climate change frames debate over the extinction of megafauna in Sahul (Pleistocene Australia-New Guinea).}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {22}, pages = {8777-8781}, pmid = {23650401}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Archaeology ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; History, Ancient ; Human Activities/history ; Humans ; New Guinea ; Paleontology/methods ; Species Specificity ; *Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {Around 88 large vertebrate taxa disappeared from Sahul sometime during the Pleistocene, with the majority of losses (54 taxa) clearly taking place within the last 400,000 years. The largest was the 2.8-ton browsing Diprotodon optatum, whereas the ∼100- to 130-kg marsupial lion, Thylacoleo carnifex, the world's most specialized mammalian carnivore, and Varanus priscus, the largest lizard known, were formidable predators. Explanations for these extinctions have centered on climatic change or human activities. Here, we review the evidence and arguments for both. Human involvement in the disappearance of some species remains possible but unproven. Mounting evidence points to the loss of most species before the peopling of Sahul (circa 50-45 ka) and a significant role for climate change in the disappearance of the continent's megafauna.}, }
@article {pmid23648909, year = {2013}, author = {Bernstein, AS and Rice, MB}, title = {Lungs in a warming world: climate change and respiratory health.}, journal = {Chest}, volume = {143}, number = {5}, pages = {1455-1459}, doi = {10.1378/chest.12-2384}, pmid = {23648909}, issn = {1931-3543}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Asthma/mortality ; *Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Lung/*physiopathology ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/mortality ; Survival Rate ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a health threat no less consequential than cigarette smoking. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and especially CO2, in the earth's atmosphere have already warmed the planet substantially, causing more severe and prolonged heat waves, temperature variability, air pollution, forest fires, droughts, and floods, all of which put respiratory health at risk. These changes in climate and air quality substantially increase respiratory morbidity and mortality for patients with common chronic lung diseases such as asthma and COPD and other serious lung diseases. Physicians have a vital role in addressing climate change, just as they did with tobacco, by communicating how climate change is a serious, but remediable, hazard to their patients.}, }
@article {pmid23642475, year = {2013}, author = {Maguire, MC}, title = {An analysis of specialist and non-specialist user requirements for geographic climate change information.}, journal = {Applied ergonomics}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {874-885}, doi = {10.1016/j.apergo.2013.03.029}, pmid = {23642475}, issn = {1872-9126}, mesh = {Administrative Personnel ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Data Collection ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Europe ; Faculty ; *Geographic Information Systems ; Government Agencies ; Humans ; *Needs Assessment ; Research Personnel ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The EU EuroClim project developed a system to monitor and record climate change indicator data based on satellite observations of snow cover, sea ice and glaciers in Northern Europe and the Arctic. It also contained projection data for temperature, rainfall and average wind speed for Europe. These were all stored as data sets in a GIS database for users to download. The process of gathering requirements for a user population including scientists, researchers, policy makers, educationalists and the general public is described. Using an iterative design methodology, a user survey was administered to obtain initial feedback on the system concept followed by panel sessions where users were presented with the system concept and a demonstrator to interact with it. The requirements of both specialist and non-specialist users is summarised together with strategies for the effective communication of geographic climate change information.}, }
@article {pmid23641087, year = {2013}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Hansen's retirement from NASA spurs look at his legacy.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {340}, number = {6132}, pages = {540-541}, doi = {10.1126/science.340.6132.540}, pmid = {23641087}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Public Policy ; United States ; United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration/*organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid23640735, year = {2013}, author = {Dinh Van, K and Janssens, L and Debecker, S and De Jonge, M and Lambret, P and Nilsson-Örtman, V and Bervoets, L and Stoks, R}, title = {Susceptibility to a metal under global warming is shaped by thermal adaptation along a latitudinal gradient.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {2625-2633}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12243}, pmid = {23640735}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Global Warming ; Larva/*drug effects ; Metals/*pharmacology ; Odonata/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {Global warming and contamination represent two major threats to biodiversity that have the potential to interact synergistically. There is the potential for gradual local thermal adaptation and dispersal to higher latitudes to mitigate the susceptibility of organisms to contaminants and global warming at high latitudes. Here, we applied a space-for-time substitution approach to study the thermal dependence of the susceptibility of Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae to zinc in a common garden warming experiment (20 and 24 °C) with replicated populations from three latitudes spanning >1500 km in Europe. We observed a striking latitude-specific effect of temperature on the zinc-induced mortality pattern; local thermal adaptation along the latitudinal gradient made Swedish, but not French, damselfly larvae more susceptible to zinc at 24 °C. Latitude- and temperature-specific differences in zinc susceptibility may be related to the amount of energy available to defend against and repair damage since Swedish larvae showed a much stronger zinc-induced reduction of food intake at 24 °C. The pattern of local thermal adaptation indicates that the predicted temperature increase of 4 °C by 2100 will strongly magnify the impact of a contaminant such as zinc at higher latitudes unless there is thermal evolution and/or migration of lower latitude genotypes. Our results underscore the critical importance of studying the susceptibility to contaminants under realistic warming scenarios taking into account local thermal adaptation across natural temperature gradients.}, }
@article {pmid23638345, year = {2013}, author = {Andrew, NR and Hill, SJ and Binns, M and Bahar, MH and Ridley, EV and Jung, MP and Fyfe, C and Yates, M and Khusro, M}, title = {Assessing insect responses to climate change: What are we testing for? Where should we be heading?.}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {e11}, pmid = {23638345}, issn = {2167-8359}, abstract = {To understand how researchers are tackling globally important issues, it is crucial to identify whether current research is comprehensive enough to make substantive predictions about general responses. We examined how research on climate change affecting insects is being assessed, what factors are being tested and the localities of studies, from 1703 papers published between 1985 and August 2012. Most published research (64%) is generated from Europe and North America and being dedicated to core data analysis, with 29% of the studies analysed dedicated to Lepidoptera and 22% Diptera: which are well above their contribution to the currently identified insect species richness (estimated at 13% and 17% respectively). Research publications on Coleoptera fall well short of their proportional contribution (19% of publications but 39% of insect species identified), and to a lesser extent so do Hemiptera, and Hymenoptera. Species specific responses to changes in temperature by assessing distribution/range shifts or changes in abundance were the most commonly used methods of assessing the impact of climate change on insects. Research on insects and climate change to date is dominated by manuscripts assessing butterflies in Europe, insects of economic and/or environmental concern in forestry, agriculture, and model organisms. The research on understanding how insects will respond to a rapidly changing climate is still in its infancy, but the current trends of publications give a good basis for how we are attempting to assess insect responses. In particular, there is a crucial need for broader studies of ecological, behavioural, physiological and life history responses to be addressed across a greater range of geographic locations, particularly Asia, Africa and Australasia, and in areas of high human population growth and habitat modification. It is still too early in our understanding of taxa responses to climate change to know if charismatic taxa, such as butterflies, or disease vectors, including Diptera, can be used as keystone taxa to generalise other insect responses to climate change. This is critical as the basic biology of most species is still poorly known, and dominant, well studied taxa may show variable responses to climate change across their distribution due to regional biotic and abiotic influences. Indeed identifying if insect responses to climate change can be generalised using phylogeny, functional traits, or functional groups, or will populations and species exhibit idiosyncratic responses, should be a key priority for future research.}, }
@article {pmid23638023, year = {2013}, author = {Cline, TJ and Bennington, V and Kitchell, JF}, title = {Climate change expands the spatial extent and duration of preferred thermal habitat for lake Superior fishes.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {e62279}, pmid = {23638023}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Geography ; Lakes ; North America ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter species distributions and habitat suitability across the globe. Understanding these shifting distributions is critical for adaptive resource management. The role of temperature in fish habitat and energetics is well established and can be used to evaluate climate change effects on habitat distributions and food web interactions. Lake Superior water temperatures are rising rapidly in response to climate change and this is likely influencing species distributions and interactions. We use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model that captures temperature changes in Lake Superior over the last 3 decades to investigate shifts in habitat size and duration of preferred temperatures for four different fishes. We evaluated habitat changes in two native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) ecotypes, siscowet and lean lake trout, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and walleye (Sander vitreus). Between 1979 and 2006, days with available preferred thermal habitat increased at a mean rate of 6, 7, and 5 days per decade for lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye, respectively. Siscowet lake trout lost 3 days per decade. Consequently, preferred habitat spatial extents increased at a rate of 579, 495 and 419 km(2) per year for the lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye while siscowet lost 161 km(2) per year during the modeled period. Habitat increases could lead to increased growth and production for three of the four fishes. Consequently, greater habitat overlap may intensify interguild competition and food web interactions. Loss of cold-water habitat for siscowet, having the coldest thermal preference, could forecast potential changes from continued warming. Additionally, continued warming may render more suitable conditions for some invasive species.}, }
@article {pmid23634220, year = {2013}, author = {Bouzid, M and Hooper, L and Hunter, PR}, title = {The effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce the health impact of climate change: a systematic review of systematic reviews.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {e62041}, pmid = {23634220}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases/transmission ; Heat-Shock Response ; Humans ; Public Health/*methods ; *Review Literature as Topic ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is likely to be one of the most important threats to public health in the coming years. Yet despite the large number of papers considering the health impact of climate change, few have considered what public health interventions may be of most value in reducing the disease burden. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce the disease burden of high priority climate sensitive diseases.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: For each disease, we performed a systematic search with no restriction on date or language of publication on Medline, Web of Knowledge, Cochrane CENTRAL and SCOPUS up to December 2010 to identify systematic reviews of public health interventions. We retrieved some 3176 records of which 85 full papers were assessed and 33 included in the review. The included papers investigated the effect of public health interventions on various outcome measures. All interventions were GRADE assessed to determine the strength of evidence. In addition we developed a systematic review quality score. The interventions included environmental interventions to control vectors, chemoprophylaxis, immunization, household and community water treatment, greening cities and community advice. For most reviews, GRADE showed low quality of evidence because of poor study design and high heterogeneity. Also for some key areas such as floods, droughts and other weather extremes, there are no adequate systematic reviews of potential public health interventions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: In conclusion, we found the evidence base to be mostly weak for environmental interventions that could have the most value in a warmer world. Nevertheless, such interventions should not be dismissed. Future research on public health interventions for climate change adaptation needs to be concerned about quality in study design and should address the gap for floods, droughts and other extreme weather events that pose a risk to health.}, }
@article {pmid23630036, year = {2013}, author = {Paaijmans, KP and Heinig, RL and Seliga, RA and Blanford, JI and Blanford, S and Murdock, CC and Thomas, MB}, title = {Temperature variation makes ectotherms more sensitive to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {2373-2380}, pmid = {23630036}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Anopheles/genetics/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Fitness ; Insecta/genetics/physiology ; Larva/genetics/physiology ; Models, Biological ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Ectotherms are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. Descriptions of habitat temperatures and predicted changes in climate usually consider mean monthly, seasonal or annual conditions. Ectotherms, however, do not simply experience mean conditions, but are exposed to daily fluctuations in habitat temperatures. Here, we highlight how temperature fluctuation can generate 'realized' thermal reaction (fitness) norms that differ from the 'fundamental' norms derived under standard constant temperatures. Using a mosquito as a model organism, we find that temperature fluctuation reduces rate processes such as development under warm conditions, increases processes under cool conditions, and reduces both the optimum and the critical maximum temperature. Generalizing these effects for a range of terrestrial insects reveals that prevailing daily fluctuations in temperature should alter the sensitivity of species to climate warming by reducing 'thermal safety margins'. Such effects of daily temperature dynamics have generally been ignored in the climate change literature.}, }
@article {pmid23630015, year = {2013}, author = {Durán, J and Rodríguez, A and Morse, JL and Groffman, PM}, title = {Winter climate change effects on soil C and N cycles in urban grasslands.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {2826-2837}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12238}, pmid = {23630015}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; *Poaceae ; *Seasons ; Soil/*chemistry ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Despite growing recognition of the role that cities have in global biogeochemical cycles, urban systems are among the least understood of all ecosystems. Urban grasslands are expanding rapidly along with urbanization, which is expected to increase at unprecedented rates in upcoming decades. The large and increasing area of urban grasslands and their impact on water and air quality justify the need for a better understanding of their biogeochemical cycles. There is also great uncertainty about the effect that climate change, especially changes in winter snow cover, will have on nutrient cycles in urban grasslands. We aimed to evaluate how reduced snow accumulation directly affects winter soil frost dynamics, and indirectly greenhouse gas fluxes and the processing of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) during the subsequent growing season in northern urban grasslands. Both artificial and natural snow reduction increased winter soil frost, affecting winter microbial C and N processing, accelerating C and N cycles and increasing soil : atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange during the subsequent growing season. With lower snow accumulations that are predicted with climate change, we found decreases in N retention in these ecosystems, and increases in N2 O and CO2 flux to the atmosphere, significantly increasing the global warming potential of urban grasslands. Our results suggest that the environmental impacts of these rapidly expanding ecosystems are likely to increase as climate change brings milder winters and more extensive soil frost.}, }
@article {pmid23629011, year = {2013}, author = {Crawford-Brown, D and Chen, PC and Shi, HC and Chao, CW}, title = {Climate change air toxic co-reduction in the context of macroeconomic modelling.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {125}, number = {}, pages = {1-6}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.03.034}, pmid = {23629011}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/methods ; Environmental Policy ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; }, abstract = {This paper examines the health implications of global PM reduction accompanying greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the 180 national economies of the global macroeconomy. A human health effects module based on empirical data on GHG emissions, PM emissions, background PM concentrations, source apportionment and human health risk coefficients is used to estimate reductions in morbidity and mortality from PM exposures globally as co-reduction of GHG reductions. These results are compared against the "fuzzy bright line" that often underlies regulatory decisions for environmental toxics, and demonstrate that the risk reduction through PM reduction would usually be considered justified in traditional risk-based decisions for environmental toxics. It is shown that this risk reduction can be on the order of more than 4 × 10(-3) excess lifetime mortality risk, with global annual cost savings of slightly more than $10B, when uniform GHG reduction measures across all sectors of the economy form the basis for climate policy ($2.2B if only Annex I nations reduce). Consideration of co-reduction of PM-10 within a climate policy framework harmonized with other environmental policies can therefore be an effective driver of climate policy. An error analysis comparing results of the current model against those of significantly more spatially resolved models at city and national scales indicates errors caused by the low spatial resolution of the global model used here may be on the order of a factor of 2.}, }
@article {pmid23625760, year = {2013}, author = {Mendoza-González, G and Martínez, ML and Rojas-Soto, OR and Vázquez, G and Gallego-Fernández, JB}, title = {Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {2524-2535}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12236}, pmid = {23625760}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Magnoliopsida/*physiology ; Mexico ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid23625663, year = {2013}, author = {Fernandes, JA and Cheung, WW and Jennings, S and Butenschön, M and de Mora, L and Frölicher, TL and Barange, M and Grant, A}, title = {Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {2596-2607}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12231}, pmid = {23625663}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Fishes/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.}, }
@article {pmid23618474, year = {2013}, author = {Spickett, JT and Katscherian, D and McIver, L}, title = {Health impacts of climate change in Vanuatu: an assessment and adaptation action plan.}, journal = {Global journal of health science}, volume = {5}, number = {3}, pages = {42-53}, pmid = {23618474}, issn = {1916-9736}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health/methods ; Food Safety/methods ; Health Impact Assessment/*methods ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Vanuatu ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23616466, year = {2013}, author = {Coelho, FJ and Rocha, RJ and Pires, AC and Ladeiro, B and Castanheira, JM and Costa, R and Almeida, A and Cunha, A and Lillebø, AI and Ribeiro, R and Pereira, R and Lopes, I and Marques, C and Moreira-Santos, M and Calado, R and Cleary, DF and Gomes, NC}, title = {Development and validation of an experimental life support system for assessing the effects of global climate change and environmental contamination on estuarine and coastal marine benthic communities.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {2584-2595}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12227}, pmid = {23616466}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Life Support Systems/economics/instrumentation ; Marine Biology/economics/instrumentation/*methods ; Seawater/chemistry/microbiology ; Water Pollutants/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {An experimental life support system (ELSS) was constructed to study the interactive effects of multiple stressors on coastal and estuarine benthic communities, specifically perturbations driven by global climate change and anthropogenic environmental contamination. The ELSS allows researchers to control salinity, pH, temperature, ultraviolet radiation (UVR), tidal rhythms and exposure to selected contaminants. Unlike most microcosms previously described, our system enables true independent replication (including randomization). In addition to this, it can be assembled using commercially available materials and equipment, thereby facilitating the replication of identical experimental setups in different geographical locations. Here, we validate the reproducibility and environmental quality of the system by comparing chemical and biological parameters recorded in our ELSS with those prevalent in the natural environment. Water, sediment microbial community and ragworm (the polychaete Hediste diversicolor) samples were obtained from four microcosms after 57 days of operation. In general, average concentrations of dissolved inorganic nutrients (NO3 (-) ; NH4 (+) and PO4 (-3)) in the water column of the ELSS experimental control units were within the range of concentrations recorded in the natural environment. While some shifts in bacterial community composition were observed between in situ and ELSS sediment samples, the relative abundance of most metabolically active bacterial taxa appeared to be stable. In addition, ELSS operation did not significantly affect survival, oxidative stress and neurological biomarkers of the model organism Hediste diversicolor. The validation data indicate that this system can be used to assess independent or interactive effects of climate change and environmental contamination on benthic communities. Researchers will be able to simulate the effects of these stressors on processes driven by microbial communities, sediment and seawater chemistry and to evaluate potential consequences to sediment toxicity using model organisms such as Hediste diversicolor.}, }
@article {pmid23610633, year = {2013}, author = {Williams, ST and Smith, LM and Herbert, DG and Marshall, BA and Warén, A and Kiel, S and Dyal, P and Linse, K and Vilvens, C and Kano, Y}, title = {Cenozoic climate change and diversification on the continental shelf and slope: evolution of gastropod diversity in the family Solariellidae (Trochoidea).}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {887-917}, pmid = {23610633}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Recent expeditions have revealed high levels of biodiversity in the tropical deep-sea, yet little is known about the age or origin of this biodiversity, and large-scale molecular studies are still few in number. In this study, we had access to the largest number of solariellid gastropods ever collected for molecular studies, including many rare and unusual taxa. We used a Bayesian chronogram of these deep-sea gastropods (1) to test the hypothesis that deep-water communities arose onshore, (2) to determine whether Antarctica acted as a source of diversity for deep-water communities elsewhere and (3) to determine how factors like global climate change have affected evolution on the continental slope. We show that although fossil data suggest that solariellid gastropods likely arose in a shallow, tropical environment, interpretation of the molecular data is equivocal with respect to the origin of the group. On the other hand, the molecular data clearly show that Antarctic species sampled represent a recent invasion, rather than a relictual ancestral lineage. We also show that an abrupt period of global warming during the Palaeocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) leaves no molecular record of change in diversification rate in solariellids and that the group radiated before the PETM. Conversely, there is a substantial, although not significant increase in the rate of diversification of a major clade approximately 33.7 Mya, coinciding with a period of global cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene transition. Increased nutrients made available by contemporaneous changes to erosion, ocean circulation, tectonic events and upwelling may explain increased diversification, suggesting that food availability may have been a factor limiting exploitation of deep-sea habitats. Tectonic events that shaped diversification in reef-associated taxa and deep-water squat lobsters in central Indo-West Pacific were also probably important in the evolution of solariellids during the Oligo-Miocene.}, }
@article {pmid23610622, year = {2013}, author = {Andriamasimanana, RH and Cameron, A}, title = {Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {763-769}, pmid = {23610622}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.}, }
@article {pmid23610173, year = {2013}, author = {Nepstad, DC and Boyd, W and Stickler, CM and Bezerra, T and Azevedo, AA}, title = {Responding to climate change and the global land crisis: REDD+, market transformation and low-emissions rural development.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1619}, pages = {20120167}, pmid = {23610173}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods ; *Environmental Policy ; Food Supply ; Greenhouse Effect ; *International Cooperation ; *Social Planning ; Glycine max ; Trees ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Climate change and rapidly escalating global demand for food, fuel, fibre and feed present seemingly contradictory challenges to humanity. Can greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use, more than one-fourth of the global total, decline as growth in land-based production accelerates? This review examines the status of two major international initiatives that are designed to address different aspects of this challenge. REDD+ is an emerging policy framework for providing incentives to tropical nations and states that reduce their GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Market transformation, best represented by agricultural commodity roundtables, seeks to exclude unsustainable farmers from commodity markets through international social and environmental standards for farmers and processors. These global initiatives could potentially become synergistically integrated through (i) a shared approach for measuring and favouring high environmental and social performance of land use across entire jurisdictions and (ii) stronger links with the domestic policies, finance and laws in the jurisdictions where agricultural expansion is moving into forests. To achieve scale, the principles of REDD+ and sustainable farming systems must be embedded in domestic low-emission rural development models capable of garnering support across multiple constituencies. We illustrate this potential with the case of Mato Grosso State in the Brazilian Amazon.}, }
@article {pmid23606580, year = {2013}, author = {Dybala, KE and Eadie, JM and Gardali, T and Seavy, NE and Herzog, MP}, title = {Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {2688-2697}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12228}, pmid = {23606580}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Passeriformes ; Survival Analysis ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.}, }
@article {pmid23605603, year = {2013}, author = {Yazdanparast, T and Salehpour, S and Masjedi, MR and Seyedmehdi, SM and Boyes, E and Stanisstreet, M and Attarchi, M}, title = {Global warming: knowledge and views of Iranian students.}, journal = {Acta medica Iranica}, volume = {51}, number = {3}, pages = {178-184}, pmid = {23605603}, issn = {1735-9694}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Age Factors ; *Cognition ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice/*ethnology ; Humans ; Iran ; Male ; Residence Characteristics ; Sex Factors ; Students/*psychology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Study of students' knowledge about global warming can help authorities to have better imagination of this critical environmental problem. This research examines high school students' ideas about greenhouse effect and the results may be useful for the respective authorities to improve cultural and educational aspects of next generation. In this cross-sectional study, a 42 question questionnaire with mix of open and closed questions was used to evaluate high school students' view about the mechanism, consequences, causes and cures of global warming. To assess students' knowledge, cognitive score was also calculated. 1035 students were randomly selected from 19 educational districts of Tehran. Sampling method was multi stage. Only 5.1% of the students could explain greenhouse effect correctly and completely. 88.8% and 71.2% respectively believed "if the greenhouse effect gets bigger the Earth will get hotter" and "incidence of more skin cancers is a consequence of global warming". 69.6% and 68.8% respectively thought "the greenhouse effect is made worse by too much carbon dioxide" and "presence of ozone holes is a cause of greenhouse effect". 68.4% believed "not using cars so much is a cure for global warming". While a student's 'cognitive score' could range from -36 to +36, Students' mean cognitive score was equal to +1.64. Mean cognitive score of male students and grade 2 &amp; 3 students was respectively higher than female ones (P<0.01) and grade 1 students (P<0.001) but there was no statistically significant difference between students of different regions (P>0.05). In general, students' knowledge about global warming was not acceptable and there were some misconceptions in the students' mind, such as supposing ozone holes as a cause and more skin cancer as a consequence of global warming. The Findings of this survey indicate that, this important stratum of society have been received no sufficient and efficient education and sensitization on this matter.}, }
@article {pmid23601398, year = {2013}, author = {Stockham, K and Sheard, A and Paimin, R and Buddhadasa, S and Duong, S and Orbell, JD and Murdoch, T}, title = {Comparative studies on the antioxidant properties and polyphenolic content of wine from different growing regions and vintages, a pilot study to investigate chemical markers for climate change.}, journal = {Food chemistry}, volume = {140}, number = {3}, pages = {500-506}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodchem.2013.01.006}, pmid = {23601398}, issn = {1873-7072}, mesh = {Antioxidants/*chemistry ; Australia ; Biomarkers/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Pilot Projects ; Polyphenols/*analysis ; Vitis/*chemistry/growth &amp; development ; Wine/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Many health benefits of wine result from specific polyphenolic compounds. Factors such as climate, CO2 levels and region are known to affect polyphenolic compounds in wine; therefore a pilot study was conducted to focus on the Australian climate which has shifted from El Niño to La Niña. This research paper presents the influence of climate conditions and growing regions on the in vitro and ex vivo antioxidant capacity of red and white wine and the profile and concentration of polyphenols in these wines from the 2008 and 2009 vintages. The ORAC and polyphenolic data show that warmer climate wines had lower in vitro antioxidant capacity values but retained good bioavailability based on data from the RBC ex vivo assay compared to cool climate wines. Based on this pilot study, further research is being conducted at the National Measurement Institute, Australia (NMIA) with the goal of determining more polyphenolic compounds which appear to be affected by climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid23600072, year = {2013}, author = {Johnstone, MJ}, title = {Climate change ethics.}, journal = {Australian nursing journal (July 1993)}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {24}, pmid = {23600072}, issn = {1320-3185}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ethics, Nursing ; Humans ; *Morals ; Social Responsibility ; }, }
@article {pmid23599951, year = {2013}, author = {Gattinger, A and Muller, A and Haeni, M and Skinner, C and Fließbach, A and Buchmann, N and Mäder, P and Stolze, M and Smith, P and Scialabba, Nel-H and Niggli, U}, title = {Reply to Leifeld et al.: Enhanced top soil carbon stocks under organic farming is not equated with climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {11}, pages = {E985}, pmid = {23599951}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; *Organic Agriculture ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid23599469, year = {2013}, author = {Andreae, MO and Ramanathan, V}, title = {Climate change. Climate's dark forcings.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {340}, number = {6130}, pages = {280-281}, doi = {10.1126/science.1235731}, pmid = {23599469}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Seasons ; Soot/*chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid23596532, year = {2013}, author = {Zhang, HX and Zhang, ML and Sanderson, SC}, title = {Retreating or standing: responses of forest species and steppe species to climate change in arid Eastern Central Asia.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {e61954}, pmid = {23596532}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Asia, Central ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Intergenic ; DNA, Plant ; *Ecosystem ; Evolution, Molecular ; Asia, Eastern ; Genetic Variation ; Geography ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The temperature in arid Eastern Central Asia is projected to increase in the future, accompanied by increased variability of precipitation. To investigate the impacts of climate change on plant species in this area, we selected two widespread species as candidates, Clematis sibirica and C. songorica, from montane coniferous forest and arid steppe habitats respectively.<br><br>We employed a combined approach of molecular phylogeography and species distribution modelling (SDM) to predict the future responses of these two species to climate change, utilizing evidence of responses from the past. Genetic data for C. sibirica shows a significant phylogeographical signal (N ST > F ST, P<0.05) and demographic contraction during the glacial-interglacial cycles in the Pleistocene. This forest species would likely experience range reduction, though without genetic loss, in the face of future climate change. In contrast, SDMs predict that C. songorica, a steppe species, should maintain a consistently stable potential distribution under the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the future climatic conditions referring to its existing potential distribution. Molecular results indicate that the presence of significant phylogeographical signal in this steppe species is rejected and this species contains a high level of genetic differentiation among populations in cpDNA, likely benefiting from stable habitats over a lengthy time period.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Evidence from the molecular phylogeography of these two species, the forest species is more sensitive to past climate changes than the steppe species. SDMs predict that the forest species will face the challenge of potential range contraction in the future more than the steppe species. This provides a perspective on ecological management in arid Eastern Central Asia, indicating that increased attention should be paid to montane forest species, due to their high sensitivity to disturbance.}, }
@article {pmid23594547, year = {2013}, author = {Telemeco, RS and Abbott, KC and Janzen, FJ}, title = {Modeling the effects of climate change-induced shifts in reproductive phenology on temperature-dependent traits.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {181}, number = {5}, pages = {637-648}, doi = {10.1086/670051}, pmid = {23594547}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Nesting Behavior ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; Sex Determination Processes ; Sex Ratio ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Turtles/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {By altering phenology, organisms have the potential to match life-history events with suitable environmental conditions. Because of this, phenological plasticity has been proposed as a mechanism whereby populations might buffer themselves from climate change. We examine the potential buffering power of advancing one aspect of phenology, nesting date, on sex ratio in painted turtles (Chrysemys picta), a species with temperature-dependent sex determination. We developed a modified constant temperature equivalent model that accounts for the effect of the interaction among climate change, oviposition date, and seasonal thermal pattern on temperature during sexual differentiation and thus on offspring sex ratio. Our results suggest that females will not be able to buffer their progeny from the negative consequences of climate change by adjusting nesting date alone. Not only are offspring sex ratios predicted to become 100% female, but our model suggests that many nests will fail. Because the seasonal thermal trends that we consider are experienced by most temperate species, our result that adjusting spring phenology alone will be insufficient to counter the effects of directional climate change may be broadly applicable.}, }
@article {pmid23593325, year = {2013}, author = {Zhao, D and Wu, S and Yin, Y}, title = {Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {e60849}, pmid = {23593325}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Atmosphere/analysis ; Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; }, abstract = {The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23591882, year = {2013}, author = {Doblas-Reyes, FJ and Andreu-Burillo, I and Chikamoto, Y and García-Serrano, J and Guemas, V and Kimoto, M and Mochizuki, T and Rodrigues, LR and van Oldenborgh, GJ}, title = {Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {1715}, pmid = {23591882}, issn = {2041-1723}, abstract = {Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be rigorously verified against observations. Near-term climate prediction is a new information tool for the climate adaptation and service communities, which often make decisions on near-term time scales, and for which the most basic information is unfortunately very scarce. The Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project set of co-ordinated climate-model experiments includes a set of near-term predictions in which several modelling groups participated and whose forecast quality we illustrate here. We show that climate forecast systems have skill in predicting the Earth's temperature at regional scales over the past 50 years and illustrate the trustworthiness of their predictions. Most of the skill can be attributed to changes in atmospheric composition, but also partly to the initialization of the predictions.}, }
@article {pmid23589540, year = {2013}, author = {Howard, C}, title = {Climate change is a health issue.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {185}, number = {7}, pages = {587}, pmid = {23589540}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Health Education ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid23583032, year = {2013}, author = {Poutiainen, C and Berrang-Ford, L and Ford, J and Heymann, J}, title = {Civil society organizations and adaptation to the health effects of climate change in Canada.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {127}, number = {5}, pages = {403-409}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2013.02.004}, pmid = {23583032}, issn = {1476-5616}, support = {//Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canada ; }, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; Humans ; Organizations/*organization &amp; administration ; *Public Health Practice ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Adaptation will be necessary to cope with the impacts of climate change on the health of Canadians. Civil society organizations (CSOs) have an important role in health adaptation, but it is unknown what actions they are undertaking.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To identify and examine what adaptations are being developed by CSOs to adapt to the health effects of climate change based on a systematic review of the activities of 190 organizations and 1196 reported adaptation actions.<br><br>RESULTS: There were six key findings: (1) health adaptation actions are predominantly led by environmental CSOs; (2) most actions are occurring at national and regional levels; (3) food and/or water contamination and air quality are dominant climate change stimuli for action; (4) responses predominantly reflect awareness and research activities, with limited evidence of substantive intervention; (5) consideration of vulnerable groups is limited; and (6) climate change is usually considered alongside other factors, if at all.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate a deficit in terms of what needs to be done for health adaptation and what is being done; part of a broader adaptation deficit in Canada. Coordinated adaptation planning at federal and provincial level is needed, involving collaboration between CSOs and public health bodies.}, }
@article {pmid23582740, year = {2013}, author = {Wenkel, KO and Berg, M and Mirschel, W and Wieland, R and Nendel, C and Köstner, B}, title = {LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {127 Suppl}, number = {}, pages = {S168-83}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.02.051}, pmid = {23582740}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Decision Support Techniques ; Geographic Information Systems ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously developed, updated and used in different research projects and as a learning and knowledge-sharing tool for students. The main objective of LandCaRe DSS is to provide information on the complex long-term impacts of climate change and on potential management options for adaptation by answering "what-if" type questions.}, }
@article {pmid23580161, year = {2013}, author = {Guo, H and Zhang, Y and Lan, Z and Pennings, SC}, title = {Biotic interactions mediate the expansion of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) into salt marshes under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {2765-2774}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12221}, pmid = {23580161}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Avicennia/*physiology ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; *Seawater ; Texas ; United States ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Many species are expanding their distributions to higher latitudes due to global warming. Understanding the mechanisms underlying these distribution shifts is critical for better understanding the impacts of climate changes. The climate envelope approach is widely used to model and predict species distribution shifts with changing climates. Biotic interactions between species, however, may also influence species distributions, and a better understanding of biotic interactions could improve predictions based solely on climate envelope models. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, USA, subtropical black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) at the northern limit of its distribution grows sympatrically with temperate salt marsh plants in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. In recent decades, freeze-free winters have led to an expansion of black mangrove into salt marshes. We examined how biotic interactions between black mangrove and salt marsh vegetation along the Texas coast varied across (i) a latitudinal gradient (associated with a winter-temperature gradient); (ii) the elevational gradient within each marsh (which creates different marsh habitats); and (iii) different life history stages of black mangroves (seedlings vs. juvenile trees). Each of these variables affected the strength or nature of biotic interactions between black mangrove and salt marsh vegetation: (i) Salt marsh vegetation facilitated black mangrove seedlings at their high-latitude distribution limit, but inhibited black mangrove seedlings at lower latitudes; (ii) mangroves performed well at intermediate elevations, but grew and survived poorly in high- and low-marsh habitats; and (iii) the effect of salt marsh vegetation on black mangroves switched from negative to neutral as black mangroves grew from seedlings into juvenile trees. These results indicate that the expansion of black mangroves is mediated by complex biotic interactions. A better understanding of the impacts of climate change on ecological communities requires incorporating context-dependent biotic interactions into species range models.}, }
@article {pmid23579080, year = {2013}, author = {Duarte, B and Santos, D and Marques, JC and Caçador, I}, title = {Ecophysiological adaptations of two halophytes to salt stress: photosynthesis, PS II photochemistry and anti-oxidant feedback--implications for resilience in climate change.}, journal = {Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB}, volume = {67}, number = {}, pages = {178-188}, doi = {10.1016/j.plaphy.2013.03.004}, pmid = {23579080}, issn = {1873-2690}, mesh = {Amaranthaceae/drug effects/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Oxidative Stress/drug effects ; Photosynthesis/*drug effects ; Photosystem II Protein Complex/metabolism ; Salt-Tolerant Plants/drug effects/metabolism ; Sodium Chloride/pharmacology ; }, abstract = {Halimione portulacoides and Sarcocornia fruticosa commonly exhibit a reddish coloration especially in high evaporation periods, due to betacyanin production in response to stress. Although sharing the same area in salt marshes, they present different strategies to overcome salinity stress. While S. fruticosa present a dilution strategy, increasing succulence, H. portulacoides appears to have developed an ionic compartmentalization strategy. Nevertheless, there's still a decrease in the photosynthetic activity in different extents. While in S. fruticosa, the impairment of photosynthetic activity is due to a decrease in the flow from the electron transport chain to the quinone pool; in H. portulacoides the process is affected far more early, with high amounts of energy dissipated at the PSII light harvesting centers. This photosynthetic impairment leads to energy accumulation and consequently to the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS). SOD was particularly active in stressed individuals, although this increment is rather more significant in S. fruticosa than in H. portulacoides suggesting that H. portulacoides may have a maximum salt concentration at which can sustain cellular balance between ROS production and scavenging. These different ecophysiological responses have great importance while evaluating the impacts climate change driven increase of sediment salinity on halophyte physiology and on the marsh community and ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid23575681, year = {2013}, author = {Foote, AD and Kaschner, K and Schultze, SE and Garilao, C and Ho, SY and Post, K and Higham, TF and Stokowska, C and van der Es, H and Embling, CB and Gregersen, K and Johansson, F and Willerslev, E and Gilbert, MT}, title = {Ancient DNA reveals that bowhead whale lineages survived Late Pleistocene climate change and habitat shifts.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {1677}, pmid = {23575681}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Bowhead Whale/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; DNA/*genetics ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The climatic changes of the glacial cycles are thought to have been a major driver of population declines and species extinctions. However, studies to date have focused on terrestrial fauna and there is little understanding of how marine species responded to past climate change. Here we show that a true Arctic species, the bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus), shifted its range and tracked its core suitable habitat northwards during the rapid climate change of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Late Pleistocene lineages survived into the Holocene and effective female population size increased rapidly, concurrent with a threefold increase in core suitable habitat. This study highlights that responses to climate change are likely to be species specific and difficult to predict. We estimate that the core suitable habitat of bowhead whales will be almost halved by the end of this century, potentially influencing future population dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid23575243, year = {2013}, author = {Burkle, FM}, title = {Pandering to ignorance on climate change: lessons from an investment strategist.}, journal = {Prehospital and disaster medicine}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {200-201}, doi = {10.1017/S1049023X13000307}, pmid = {23575243}, issn = {1049-023X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Role ; }, abstract = {An investment strategist recently published, in the journal Nature, an impassioned plea to all scientists that they must begin to speak out on the resource crisis exacerbated by global warming. In this Editorial response, the author reminds health professionals that they can no longer stay silent and pander to the ignorance of others, and challenges them, along with multidisciplinary partners and stakeholders, to define a strong collaborative and cooperative stance on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23573375, year = {2013}, author = {Lee, J and Hong, YP and Kim, H and Hong, Y and Lee, W}, title = {Trends in reports on climate change in 2009-2011 in the Korean press based on daily newspapers' ownership structure.}, journal = {Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi}, volume = {46}, number = {2}, pages = {105-110}, pmid = {23573375}, issn = {2233-4521}, mesh = {Asian People ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Newspapers as Topic/*trends ; *Ownership ; Republic of Korea ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The mass media play a crucial role in risk communication regarding climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate the trend in journalistic reports on climate change in the daily newspapers of Korea.<br><br>METHODS: We selected 9 daily newspapers in Korea, which according to the ABC Association, represented 77% of newspaper circulation, out of a total of 44 Korean daily newspapers. The collected articles were from 2009 to 2011. All of the articles were sorted into the following 8 categories: greenhouse gas, climate change conventions, sea level rise, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis reports, expected damage and effect, use of fossil fuels, global warming, and mitigation or adaptation. A chi-squared test was done on the articles, which were counted and classified into cause, effect, and measurement of climate change according to the newspaper's majority or minority ownership structure.<br><br>RESULTS: From the 9 selected newspapers, the number of articles on climate change by month was greatest in December 2009. Generally, the articles vague about climate change (lack of precise data, negative or skeptical tone, and improper use of terminology) were much more common than the articles presenting accurate knowledge. A statistical difference was found based on ownership structure: the majority-owned newspapers addressed the cause of climate change, while the minority-owned newspapers referred more to climate change measurement.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our investigation revealed that generally Korean daily newspapers did not deliver accurate information about climate change. The coverage of the newspapers showed significant differences according to the ownership structure.}, }
@article {pmid23573267, year = {2013}, author = {LaRue, MA and Ainley, DG and Swanson, M and Dugger, KM and Lyver, PO and Barton, K and Ballard, G}, title = {Climate change winners: receding ice fields facilitate colony expansion and altered dynamics in an Adélie penguin metapopulation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {e60568}, pmid = {23573267}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Ice ; Ice Cover ; Male ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction ; Spheniscidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ~0.50 °C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.}, }
@article {pmid23569231, year = {2013}, author = {Hannah, L and Roehrdanz, PR and Ikegami, M and Shepard, AV and Shaw, MR and Tabor, G and Zhi, L and Marquet, PA and Hijmans, RJ}, title = {Climate change, wine, and conservation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {17}, pages = {6907-6912}, pmid = {23569231}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Fresh Water/analysis ; Mediterranean Region ; *Models, Biological ; Vitis/*growth &amp; development ; Wine/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.}, }
@article {pmid23565282, year = {2013}, author = {Rochlin, I and Ninivaggi, DV and Hutchinson, ML and Farajollahi, A}, title = {Climate change and range expansion of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) in Northeastern USA: implications for public health practitioners.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {e60874}, pmid = {23565282}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Aedes ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Mosquito Control ; *Public Health ; United States ; }, abstract = {The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse), is an invasive species with substantial biting activity, high disease vector potential, and a global distribution that continues to expand. New Jersey, southern New York, and Pennsylvania are currently the northernmost boundary of established Ae. albopictus populations in the eastern United States. Using positive geographic locations from these areas, we modeled the potential future range expansion of Ae. albopictus in northeastern USA under two climate change scenarios. The land area with environmental conditions suitable for Ae. albopictus populations is expected to increase from the current 5% to 16% in the next two decades and to 43%-49% by the end of the century. Presently, about one-third of the total human population of 55 million in northeastern USA reside in urban areas where Ae. albopictus is present. This number is predicted to double to about 60% by the end of the century, encompassing all major urban centers and placing over 30 million people under the threat of dense Ae. albopictus infestations. This mosquito species presents unique challenges to public health agencies and has already strained the resources available to mosquito control programs within its current range. As it continues to expand into areas with fewer resources and limited organized mosquito control, these challenges will be further exacerbated. Anticipating areas of potential establishment, while planning ahead and gathering sufficient resources will be the key for successful public health campaigns. A broad effort in community sanitation and education at all levels of government and the private sector will be required until new control techniques are developed that can be applied efficiently and effectively at reasonable cost to very large areas.}, }
@article {pmid23565182, year = {2013}, author = {Wei, Y and Fang, Y}, title = {Spatio-temporal characteristics of global warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the last 50 years based on a generalised temperature zone-elevation model.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {e60044}, pmid = {23565182}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Altitude ; Geography ; *Global Warming/history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; *Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; *Temperature ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961-2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of -6°C and -4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961-2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991-2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions.}, }
@article {pmid23561024, year = {2013}, author = {Kjellstrom, T and McMichael, AJ}, title = {Climate change threats to population health and well-being: the imperative of protective solutions that will last.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {20816}, pmid = {23561024}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Environmental Policy ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The observational evidence of the impacts of climate conditions on human health is accumulating. A variety of direct, indirect, and systemically mediated health effects have been identified. Excessive daily heat exposures create direct effects, such as heat stroke (and possibly death), reduce work productivity, and interfere with daily household activities. Extreme weather events, including storms, floods, and droughts, create direct injury risks and follow-on outbreaks of infectious diseases, lack of nutrition, and mental stress. Climate change will increase these direct health effects. Indirect effects include malnutrition and under-nutrition due to failing local agriculture, spread of vector-borne diseases and other infectious diseases, and mental health and other problems caused by forced migration from affected homes and workplaces. Examples of systemically mediated impacts on population health include famine, conflicts, and the consequences of large-scale adverse economic effects due to reduced human and environmental productivity. This article highlights links between climate change and non-communicable health problems, a major concern for global health beyond 2015.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Detailed regional analysis of climate conditions clearly shows increasing temperatures in many parts of the world. Climate modelling indicates that by the year 2100 the global average temperature may have increased by 34&#xb0;C unless fundamental reductions in current global trends for greenhouse gas emissions are achieved. Given other unforeseeable environmental, social, demographic, and geopolitical changes that may occur in a plus-4-degree world, that scenario may comprise a largely uninhabitable world for millions of people and great social and military tensions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: It is imperative that we identify actions and strategies that are effective in reducing these increasingly likely threats to health and well-being. The fundamental preventive strategy is, of course, climate change mitigation by significantly reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, especially long-acting carbon dioxide (CO(2)), and by increasing the uptake of CO(2) at the earth's surface. This involves urgent shifts in energy production from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, energy conservation in building design and urban planning, and reduced waste of energy for transport, building heating/cooling, and agriculture. It would also involve shifts in agricultural production and food systems to reduce energy and water use particularly in meat production. There is also potential for prevention via mitigation, adaptation, or resilience building actions, but for the large populations in tropical countries, mitigation of climate change is required to achieve health protection solutions that will last.}, }
@article {pmid23559223, year = {2013}, author = {Shakhashiri, BZ and Bell, JA}, title = {Climate change conversations.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {340}, number = {6128}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1126/science.1238241}, pmid = {23559223}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Information Dissemination ; Science/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid23558195, year = {2013}, author = {Liu, C and Hofstra, N and Franz, E}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the microbial safety of pre-harvest leafy green vegetables as indicated by Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.}, journal = {International journal of food microbiology}, volume = {163}, number = {2-3}, pages = {119-128}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2013.02.026}, pmid = {23558195}, issn = {1879-3460}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Escherichia coli O157/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Food Microbiology ; Food Safety ; Plant Leaves/*microbiology ; Rain ; Salmonella/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Seasons ; Sewage ; Vegetables/*microbiology ; }, abstract = {The likelihood of leafy green vegetable (LGV) contamination and the associated pathogen growth and survival are strongly related to climatic conditions. Particularly temperature increase and precipitation pattern changes have a close relationship not only with the fate and transport of enteric bacteria, but also with their growth and survival. Using all relevant literature, this study reviews and synthesises major impacts of climate change (temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes) on contamination sources (manure, soil, surface water, sewage and wildlife) and pathways of foodborne pathogens (focussing on Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.) on pre-harvested LGVs. Whether climate change increases their prevalence depends not only on the resulting local balance of the positive and negative impacts but also on the selected regional climate change scenarios. However, the contamination risks are likely to increase. This review shows the need for quantitative modelling approaches with scenario analyses and additional laboratory experiments. This study gives an extensive overview of the impacts of climate change on the contamination of pre-harvested LGVs and shows that climate change should not be ignored in food safety management and research.}, }
@article {pmid23557671, year = {2013}, author = {Yousefpour, R and Temperli, C and Bugmann, H and Elkin, C and Hanewinkel, M and Meilby, H and Jacobsen, JB and Thorsen, BJ}, title = {Updating beliefs and combining evidence in adaptive forest management under climate change: a case study of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) in the Black Forest, Germany.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {122}, number = {}, pages = {56-64}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.03.004}, pmid = {23557671}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Germany ; Picea/*chemistry ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {We study climate uncertainty and how managers' beliefs about climate change develop and influence their decisions. We develop an approach for updating knowledge and beliefs based on the observation of forest and climate variables and illustrate its application for the adaptive management of an even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) forest in the Black Forest, Germany. We simulated forest development under a range of climate change scenarios and forest management alternatives. Our analysis used Bayesian updating and Dempster's rule of combination to simulate how observations of climate and forest variables may influence a decision maker's beliefs about climate development and thereby management decisions. While forest managers may be inclined to rely on observed forest variables to infer climate change and impacts, we found that observation of climate state, e.g. temperature or precipitation is superior for updating beliefs and supporting decision-making. However, with little conflict among information sources, the strongest evidence would be offered by a combination of at least two informative variables, e.g., temperature and precipitation. The success of adaptive forest management depends on when managers switch to forward-looking management schemes. Thus, robust climate adaptation policies may depend crucially on a better understanding of what factors influence managers' belief in climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23554235, year = {2013}, author = {Chakraborty, S}, title = {Migrate or evolve: options for plant pathogens under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {1985-2000}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12205}, pmid = {23554235}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/microbiology ; *Ecosystem ; Evolution, Molecular ; Forestry ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; *Introduced Species ; *Models, Biological ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; Population Dynamics ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Findings on climate change influence on plant pathogens are often inconsistent and context dependent. Knowledge of pathogens affecting agricultural crops and natural plant communities remains fragmented along disciplinary lines. By broadening the perspective beyond agriculture, this review integrates cross-disciplinary knowledge to show that at scales relevant to climate change, accelerated evolution and changing geographic distribution will be the main implications for pathogens. New races may evolve rapidly under elevated temperature and CO2 , as evolutionary forces act on massive pathogen populations boosted by a combination of increased fecundity and infection cycles under favourable microclimate within enlarged canopy. Changing geographic distribution will bring together diverse lineages/genotypes that do not share common ecological niche, potentially increasing pathogen diversity. However, the uncertainty of model predictions and a lack of synthesis of fragmented knowledge remain as major deficiencies in knowledge. The review contends that the failure to consider scale and human intervention through new technology are major sources of uncertainty. Recognizing that improved biophysical models alone will not reduce uncertainty, it proposes a generic framework to increase focus and outlines ways to integrate biophysical elements and technology change with human intervention scenarios to minimize uncertainty. To synthesize knowledge of pathogen biology and life history, the review borrows the concept of 'fitness' from population biology as a comprehensive measure of pathogen strengths and vulnerabilities, and explores the implications of pathogen mode of nutrition to fitness and its interactions with plants suffering chronic abiotic stress under climate change. Current and future disease management options can then be judged for their ability to impair pathogenic and saprophytic fitness. The review pinpoints improving confidence in model prediction by minimizing uncertainty, developing management strategies to reduce overall pathogen fitness, and finding new sources of data to trawl for climate signatures on pathogens as important challenges for future research.}, }
@article {pmid23554213, year = {2013}, author = {Brochier, T and Echevin, V and Tam, J and Chaigneau, A and Goubanova, K and Bertrand, A}, title = {Climate change scenarios experiments predict a future reduction in small pelagic fish recruitment in the Humboldt Current system.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {1841-1853}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12184}, pmid = {23554213}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/*physiology ; Hydrodynamics ; }, abstract = {The Humboldt Current System (HCS) sustains the world's largest small pelagic fishery. While a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. Recent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric CO2 scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling-favorable winds may remain nearly constant off Peru and increase off Chile. Here we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. We used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. Numerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the HCS from global simulations forced by pre-industrial (PI), 2 × CO2 and 4 × CO2 scenarios. A biogeochemical model is applied to the PI and 4 × CO2 scenarios to define a time-variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. We test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: One corresponding to the present-day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. It appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. However, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. The underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. Our results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the HCS with strong ecological, economic and social consequences.}, }
@article {pmid23552460, year = {2013}, author = {Jessup, CM and Balbus, JM and Christian, C and Haque, E and Howe, SE and Newton, SA and Reid, BC and Roberts, L and Wilhelm, E and Rosenthal, JP}, title = {Climate change, human health, and biomedical research: analysis of the National Institutes of Health research portfolio.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {121}, number = {4}, pages = {399-404}, pmid = {23552460}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Biomedical Research/*classification/economics ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; *National Institutes of Health (U.S.) ; *Public Health ; Research Design ; United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio.<br><br>METHODS: A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective.<br><br>RESULTS: This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH's strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health.}, }
@article {pmid23552070, year = {2013}, author = {Luo, Y and Chen, HY}, title = {Observations from old forests underestimate climate change effects on tree mortality.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {1655}, pmid = {23552070}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Understanding climate change-associated tree mortality is central to linking climate change impacts and forest structure and function. However, whether temporal increases in tree mortality are attributed to climate change or stand developmental processes remains uncertain. Furthermore, interpreting the climate change-associated tree mortality estimated from old forests for regional forests rests on an un-tested assumption that the effects of climate change are the same for young and old forests. Here we disentangle the effects of climate change and stand developmental processes on tree mortality. We show that both climate change and forest development processes influence temporal mortality increases, climate change-associated increases are significantly higher in young than old forests, and higher increases in younger forests are a result of their higher sensitivity to regional warming and drought. We anticipate our analysis to be a starting point for more comprehensive examinations of how forest ecosystems might respond to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23550671, year = {2013}, author = {McMichael, AJ}, title = {Globalization, climate change, and human health.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {368}, number = {14}, pages = {1335-1343}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMra1109341}, pmid = {23550671}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; *Health ; Humans ; *Internationality ; Population Growth ; Urbanization ; }, }
@article {pmid23550542, year = {2013}, author = {Wang, Q and Abbott, RJ and Yu, QS and Lin, K and Liu, JQ}, title = {Pleistocene climate change and the origin of two desert plant species, Pugionium cornutum and Pugionium dolabratum (Brassicaceae), in northwest China.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {199}, number = {1}, pages = {277-287}, doi = {10.1111/nph.12241}, pmid = {23550542}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Brassicaceae/*genetics/physiology ; China ; Climate Change ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; DNA, Intergenic ; Desert Climate ; Ecosystem ; Gene Flow ; *Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Haplotypes/genetics ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Pleistocene climate change has had an important effect in shaping intraspecific genetic variation in many species; however, its role in driving speciation is less clear. We examined the possibility of a Pleistocene origin of the only two representatives of the genus Pugionium (Brassicaceae), Pugionium cornutum and Pugionium dolabratum, which occupy different desert habitats in northwest China. We surveyed sequence variation for internal transcribed spacer (ITS), three chloroplast (cp) DNA fragments, and eight low-copy nuclear genes among individuals sampled from 11 populations of each species across their geographic ranges. One ITS mutation distinguished the two species, whereas mutations in cpDNA and the eight low-copy nuclear gene sequences were not species-specific. Although interspecific divergence varied greatly among nuclear gene sequences, in each case divergence was estimated to have occurred within the Pleistocene when deserts expanded in northwest China. Our findings point to the importance of Pleistocene climate change, in this case an increase in aridity, as a cause of speciation in Pugionium as a result of divergence in different habitats that formed in association with the expansion of deserts in China.}, }
@article {pmid23548736, year = {2013}, author = {Barrett, JR}, title = {Climate change adaptation: weighing strategies for heat-related health challenges.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {121}, number = {4}, pages = {A134}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.121-a134}, pmid = {23548736}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*standards ; }, }
@article {pmid23541400, year = {2013}, author = {Kumar, P and Wiltshire, A and Mathison, C and Asharaf, S and Ahrens, B and Lucas-Picher, P and Christensen, JH and Gobiet, A and Saeed, F and Hagemann, S and Jacob, D}, title = {Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {468-469 Suppl}, number = {}, pages = {S18-30}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.01.051}, pmid = {23541400}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; India ; *Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Uncertainty ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This study presents the possible regional climate change over South Asia with a focus over India as simulated by three very high resolution regional climate models (RCMs). One of the most striking results is a robust increase in monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century but regional differences in strength. First the ability of RCMs to simulate the monsoon climate is analyzed. For this purpose all three RCMs are forced with ECMWF reanalysis data for the period 1989-2008 at a horizontal resolution of ~25 km. The results are compared against independent observations. In order to simulate future climate the models are driven by lateral boundary conditions from two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5-MPIOM and HadCM3) using the SRES A1B scenario, except for one RCM, which only used data from one GCM. The results are presented for the full transient simulation period 1970-2099 and also for several time slices. The analysis concentrates on precipitation and temperature over land. All models show a clear signal of gradually wide-spread warming throughout the 21st century. The ensemble-mean warming over India is 1.5°C at the end of 2050, whereas it is 3.9°C at the end of century with respect to 1970-1999. The pattern of projected precipitation changes shows considerable spatial variability, with an increase in precipitation over the peninsular of India and coastal areas and, either no change or decrease further inland. From the analysis of a larger ensemble of global climate models using the A1B scenario a wide spread warming (~3.2°C) and an overall increase (~8.5%) in mean monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century is very likely. The influence of the driving GCM on the projected precipitation change simulated with each RCM is as strong as the variability among the RCMs driven with one.}, }
@article {pmid23537053, year = {2013}, author = {Pelley, J}, title = {Cooling down climate change, while heating up grocery bills: ES&amp;T's top policy analysis article 2012.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {47}, number = {7}, pages = {3023}, doi = {10.1021/es4009129}, pmid = {23537053}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, }
@article {pmid23532482, year = {2013}, author = {Morgan, E and O' Riordan, RM and Culloty, SC}, title = {Climate change impacts on potential recruitment in an ecosystem engineer.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {581-594}, pmid = {23532482}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate variability and the rapid warming of seas undoubtedly have huge ramifications for biological processes such as reproduction. As such, gametogenesis and spawning were investigated at two sites over 200 km apart on the south coast of Ireland in an ecosystem engineer, the common cockle, Cerastoderma edule. Both sites are classed as Special Areas of Conservation (SACs), but are of different water quality. Cerastoderma edule plays a significant biological role by recycling nutrients and affecting sediment structure, with impacts upon assemblage biomass and functional diversity. It plays a key role in food webs, being a common foodstuff for a number of marine birds including the oystercatcher. Both before and during the study (early 2010-mid 2011), Ireland experienced its two coldest winters for 50 years. As the research demonstrated only slight variation in the spawning period between sites, despite site differences in water and environmental quality, temperature and variable climatic conditions were the dominant factor controlling gametogenesis. The most significant finding was that the spawning period in the cockle extended over a greater number of months compared with previous studies and that gametogenesis commenced over winter rather than in spring. Extremely cold winters may impact on the cockle by accelerating and extending the onset and development of gametogenesis. Whether this impact is positive or negative would depend on the associated events occurring on which the cockle depends, that is, presence of primary producers and spring blooms, which would facilitate conversion of this extended gametogenesis into successful recruitment.}, }
@article {pmid23531489, year = {2013}, author = {Alexander, KA and Carzolio, M and Goodin, D and Vance, E}, title = {Climate change is likely to worsen the public health threat of diarrheal disease in Botswana.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {1202-1230}, pmid = {23531489}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Botswana/epidemiology ; Child Welfare/*trends ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Diarrhea/*epidemiology/*etiology ; Humans ; Infant ; Public Health/*trends ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Diarrheal disease is an important health challenge, accounting for the majority of childhood deaths globally. Climate change is expected to increase the global burden of diarrheal disease but little is known regarding climate drivers, particularly in Africa. Using health data from Botswana spanning a 30-year period (1974-2003), we evaluated monthly reports of diarrheal disease among patients presenting to Botswana health facilities and compared this to climatic variables. Diarrheal case incidence presents with a bimodal cyclical pattern with peaks in March (ANOVA p < 0.001) and October (ANOVA p < 0.001) in the wet and dry season, respectively. There is a strong positive autocorrelation (p < 0.001) in the number of reported diarrhea cases at the one-month lag level. Climatic variables (rainfall, minimum temperature, and vapor pressure) predicted seasonal diarrheal with a one-month lag in variables (p < 0.001). Diarrheal case incidence was highest in the dry season after accounting for other variables, exhibiting on average a 20% increase over the yearly mean (p < 0.001). Our analysis suggests that forecasted climate change increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation may increase dry season diarrheal disease incidence with hot, dry conditions starting earlier and lasting longer. Diarrheal disease incidence in the wet season is likely to decline. Our results identify significant health-climate interactions, highlighting the need for an escalated public health focus on controlling diarrheal disease in Botswana. Study findings have application to other arid countries in Africa where diarrheal disease is a persistent public health problem.}, }
@article {pmid23531056, year = {2013}, author = {Capinha, C and Larson, ER and Tricarico, E and Olden, JD and Gherardi, F}, title = {Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of native European crayfishes.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {731-740}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12043}, pmid = {23531056}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; Aphanomyces ; Astacoidea/microbiology/*physiology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Introduced Species/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change will require species to adapt to new conditions or follow preferred climates to higher latitudes or elevations, but many dispersal-limited freshwater species may be unable to move due to barriers imposed by watershed boundaries. In addition, invasive nonnative species may expand into new regions under future climate conditions and contribute to the decline of native species. We evaluated future distributions for the threatened European crayfish fauna in response to climate change, watershed boundaries, and the spread of invasive crayfishes, which transmit the crayfish plague, a lethal disease for native European crayfishes. We used climate projections from general circulation models and statistical models based on Mahalanobis distance to predict climate-suitable regions for native and invasive crayfishes in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. We identified these suitable regions as accessible or inaccessible on the basis of major watershed boundaries and present occurrences and evaluated potential future overlap with 3 invasive North American crayfishes. Climate-suitable areas decreased for native crayfishes by 19% to 72%, and the majority of future suitable areas for most of these species were inaccessible relative to native and current distributions. Overlap with invasive crayfish plague-transmitting species was predicted to increase. Some native crayfish species (e.g., noble crayfish [Astacus astacus]) had no future refugia that were unsuitable for the modeled nonnative species. Our results emphasize the importance of preventing additional introductions and spread of invasive crayfishes in Europe to minimize interactions between the multiple stressors of climate change and invasive species, while suggesting candidate regions for the debatable management option of assisted colonization.}, }
@article {pmid23528178, year = {2013}, author = {Müller, C}, title = {African lessons on climate change risks for agriculture.}, journal = {Annual review of nutrition}, volume = {33}, number = {}, pages = {395-411}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-nutr-071812-161121}, pmid = {23528178}, issn = {1545-4312}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; *Climate Change/economics ; Crops, Agricultural/economics/*growth &amp; development ; Diet/adverse effects/economics ; Forecasting ; *Global Health/economics/trends ; Humans ; Malnutrition/economics/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk ; Soil/chemistry ; Water Resources/economics ; }, abstract = {Climate change impact assessments on agriculture are subject to large uncertainties, as demonstrated in the present review of recent studies for Africa. There are multiple reasons for differences in projections, including uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and patterns of climate change; assumptions on future management, aggregation, and spatial extent; and methodological differences. Still, all projections agree that climate change poses a significant risk to African agriculture. Most projections also see the possibility of increasing agricultural production under climate change, especially if suitable adaptation measures are assumed. Climate change is not the only projected pressure on African agriculture, which struggles to meet demand today and may need to feed an additional one billion individuals by 2050. Development strategies are urgently needed, but they will need to consider future climate change and its inherent uncertainties. Science needs to show how existing synergies between climate change adaptation and development can be exploited.}, }
@article {pmid23526802, year = {2013}, author = {Prasad, AM and Gardiner, JD and Iverson, LR and Matthews, SN and Peters, M}, title = {Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {2196-2208}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12204}, pmid = {23526802}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Phylogeography ; Population Dynamics ; Quercus/*growth &amp; development ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new quasi-equilibrium suitable habitats (~2100) after accounting for the lag in colonization. However, it is an open question if and when these newly suitable habitats will be colonized under current fragmented landscapes and realistic migration rates. To evaluate this, we used a spatially explicit cell-based model (SHIFT) that estimates colonization potentials under current fragmented habitats and several estimates of historical migration rates at a 1 km resolution. Computation time, which was previously the biggest constraint, was overcome by a novel application of convolution and Fast Fourier Transforms. SHIFT outputs, when intersected with future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB, allow assessment of colonization potential under future climates. In this article, we show how our approach can be used to screen multiple tree species for their colonization potentials under climate change. In particular, we use the DISTRIB and SHIFT models in combination to assess if the future dominant forest types in the north will really be dominated by oaks, as modelled via DISTRIB. Even under optimistic scenarios, we conclude that only a small fraction of the suitable habitats of oaks predicted by DISTRIB is likely to be occupied within 100 years, and this will be concentrated in the first 10-20 km from the current boundary. We also show how DISTRIB and SHIFT can be used to evaluate the potential for assisted migration of vulnerable tree species, and discuss the dynamics of colonization at range limits.}, }
@article {pmid23526791, year = {2013}, author = {Davis, J and Pavlova, A and Thompson, R and Sunnucks, P}, title = {Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {1970-1984}, pmid = {23526791}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*growth &amp; development ; Australia ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/trends ; *Desert Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Fresh Water ; }, abstract = {Refugia have been suggested as priority sites for conservation under climate change because of their ability to facilitate survival of biota under adverse conditions. Here, we review the likely role of refugial habitats in conserving freshwater biota in arid Australian aquatic systems where the major long-term climatic influence has been aridification. We introduce a conceptual model that characterizes evolutionary refugia and ecological refugees based on our review of the attributes of aquatic habitats and freshwater taxa (fishes and aquatic invertebrates) in arid Australia. We also identify methods of recognizing likely future refugia and approaches to assessing the vulnerability of arid-adapted freshwater biota to a warming and drying climate. Evolutionary refugia in arid areas are characterized as permanent, groundwater-dependent habitats (subterranean aquifers and springs) supporting vicariant relicts and short-range endemics. Ecological refugees can vary across space and time, depending on the dispersal abilities of aquatic taxa and the geographical proximity and hydrological connectivity of aquatic habitats. The most important are the perennial waterbodies (both groundwater and surface water fed) that support obligate aquatic organisms. These species will persist where suitable habitats are available and dispersal pathways are maintained. For very mobile species (invertebrates with an aerial dispersal phase) evolutionary refugia may also act as ecological refugees. Evolutionary refugia are likely future refugia because their water source (groundwater) is decoupled from local precipitation. However, their biota is extremely vulnerable to changes in local conditions because population extinction risks cannot be abated by the dispersal of individuals from other sites. Conservation planning must incorporate a high level of protection for aquifers that support refugial sites. Ecological refuges are vulnerable to changes in regional climate because they have little thermal or hydrological buffering. Accordingly, conservation planning must focus on maintaining meta-population processes, especially through dynamic connectivity between aquatic habitats at a landscape scale.}, }
@article {pmid23526049, year = {2013}, author = {Zhang, Y and Isukapalli, S and Bielory, L and Georgopoulos, P}, title = {Bayesian Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Observed and Projected Airborne Levels of Birch Pollen.}, journal = {Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)}, volume = {68}, number = {}, pages = {64-73}, pmid = {23526049}, issn = {1352-2310}, support = {P30 ES005022/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {A Bayesian framework is presented for modeling Effects of climate change on pollen indices such as annual birch pollen count, maximum daily birch pollen count, start date of birch pollen season and the date of maximum daily birch pollen count. Annual mean CO2 concentration, mean spring temperature and the corresponding pollen index of prior year were found to be statistically significant accounting for Effects of climate change on four pollen indices. Results suggest that annual productions and peak values from 2020 to 2100 under different scenarios will be 1.3-8.0 and 1.1-7.3 times higher respectively than the mean values for 2000, and start and peak dates will occur around two to four weeks earlier. These results have been partly confirmed by the available historical data. As a demonstration, the emission profiles in future years were generated by incorporating the predicted pollen indices into an existing emission model.}, }
@article {pmid23525029, year = {2013}, author = {Turner, LR and Alderman, K and Connell, D and Tong, S}, title = {Motivators and barriers to incorporating climate change-related health risks in environmental health impact assessment.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {10}, number = {3}, pages = {1139-1151}, pmid = {23525029}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Female ; Focus Groups ; *Health Impact Assessment ; Humans ; Interdisciplinary Communication ; Male ; Motivation ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate change presents risks to health that must be addressed by both decision-makers and public health researchers. Within the application of Environmental Health Impact Assessment (EHIA), there have been few attempts to incorporate climate change-related health risks as an input to the framework. This study used a focus group design to examine the perceptions of government, industry and academic specialists about the suitability of assessing the health consequences of climate change within an EHIA framework. Practitioners expressed concern over a number of factors relating to the current EHIA methodology and the inclusion of climate change-related health risks. These concerns related to the broad scope of issues that would need to be considered, problems with identifying appropriate health indicators, the lack of relevant qualitative information that is currently incorporated in assessment and persistent issues surrounding stakeholder participation. It was suggested that improvements are needed in data collection processes, particularly in terms of adequate communication between environmental and health practitioners. Concerns were raised surrounding data privacy and usage, and how these could impact on the assessment process. These findings may provide guidance for government and industry bodies to improve the assessment of climate change-related health risks.}, }
@article {pmid23524397, year = {2013}, author = {Lee, BS and You, GJ}, title = {An assessment of long-term overtopping risk and optimal termination time of dam under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {121}, number = {}, pages = {57-71}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.02.025}, pmid = {23524397}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Taiwan ; Time Factors ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Reservoir management faces a wide range of new challenges resulting from the impact of climate change. One set of challenges arises from the non-stationary nature of hydrological conditions. Another crucial issue is watershed sedimentation, which can significantly influence the sustainability and safety of reservoirs. To address these concerns, this study developed a framework for the management of reservoir risk. An analytical conceptual model coupling physical governing relationships and economic tools was proposed, which was then applied to the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. We adopted a statistical representation of future hydrologic conditions with the assumption of time-variant moments and focused on evaluating the impact of an increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events caused by climate change and used a stochastic approach to quantify the risk factors. Our results confirm that this approach can be used to identify reservoir-related risks and generate appropriate options for strategy and policy. We determined that the major source of risk is the hydrological conditions, especially the extreme events. More severe intra-annual climatic change is much more dominant in the risk compared to inter-year trends. The influence of reservoir characteristics on risk is associated mainly with the availability of flood control capacity, but limited due to the limitation of its volume and potential to regulate the flow. Engineering may provide an option for mitigating the risk, but integrated, watershed-level approaches, such as providing systematic detention or land use management, are better suited to reducing the storm peak from a long-term perspective. With a critical increase in the risk of overtopping, a high probability of dam failure and corresponding losses may precipitate the need to retire or remove the facility. However, because the benefits and costs are both huge, the decision may be biased by a conservative attitude. The outcome of small facilities failing may be considered more acceptable than similar events besetting larger systems.}, }
@article {pmid23524395, year = {2013}, author = {Hameed, SO and Holzer, KA and Doerr, AN and Baty, JH and Schwartz, MW}, title = {The value of a multi-faceted climate change vulnerability assessment to managing protected lands: lessons from a case study in Point Reyes National Seashore.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {121}, number = {}, pages = {37-47}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.02.034}, pmid = {23524395}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {California ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Managing protected areas in the face of an uncertain future climate poses serious challenges. There are currently a variety of predictive and analytical methods for assessing future climates and biological responses to the changes, but an assessment produced by any one of these methods is necessarily limited in scope. When making management decisions, therefore, it is beneficial to have information from a variety of sources and analytical methods, and to compare the agreements and discrepancies among them. Based on existing climate change vulnerability assessment frameworks in the literature, we developed a multi-faceted climate change vulnerability assessment at the biological community level comprised of: a) expert judgment, b) predictive vegetation mapping, c) predictive geophysical mapping, and d) species-specific evaluations. We wrote a climate change vulnerability assessment for Point Reyes National Seashore and evaluated the usefulness of each facet, alone and in concert. We found that the facets were complementary and that each one was useful to inform some management goals; we also found that expert judgment was the most widely applicable and flexible assessment method. We believe that this multi-faceted framework can be employed in other protected areas to facilitate management decisions under a changing and uncertain future climate.}, }
@article {pmid23520468, year = {2013}, author = {Archetti, M and Richardson, AD and O'Keefe, J and Delpierre, N}, title = {Predicting climate change impacts on the amount and duration of autumn colors in a New England forest.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {e57373}, pmid = {23520468}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; New England ; Pigmentation/*physiology ; *Seasons ; Time Factors ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects the phenology of many species. As temperature and precipitation are thought to control autumn color change in temperate deciduous trees, it is possible that climate change might also affect the phenology of autumn colors. Using long-term data for eight tree species in a New England hardwood forest, we show that the timing and cumulative amount of autumn color are correlated with variation in temperature and precipitation at specific times of the year. A phenological model driven by accumulated cold degree-days and photoperiod reproduces most of the interspecific and interannual variability in the timing of autumn colors. We use this process-oriented model to predict changes in the phenology of autumn colors to 2099, showing that, while responses vary among species, climate change under standard IPCC projections will lead to an overall increase in the amount of autumn colors for most species.}, }
@article {pmid23513207, year = {2013}, author = {Wunsch, C and Schmitt, RW and Baker, DJ}, title = {Climate change as an intergenerational problem.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {12}, pages = {4435-4436}, pmid = {23513207}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid23512883, year = {2013}, author = {Ruiz-Vera, UM and Siebers, M and Gray, SB and Drag, DW and Rosenthal, DM and Kimball, BA and Ort, DR and Bernacchi, CJ}, title = {Global warming can negate the expected CO2 stimulation in photosynthesis and productivity for soybean grown in the Midwestern United States.}, journal = {Plant physiology}, volume = {162}, number = {1}, pages = {410-423}, pmid = {23512883}, issn = {1532-2548}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; *Global Warming ; Midwestern United States ; Photosynthesis/*drug effects ; Plant Leaves/drug effects/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Plant Transpiration/*drug effects ; Rain ; Glycine max/drug effects/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Extensive evidence shows that increasing carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) stimulates, and increasing temperature decreases, both net photosynthetic carbon assimilation (A) and biomass production for C3 plants. However the [CO2]-induced stimulation in A is projected to increase further with warmer temperature. While the influence of increasing temperature and [CO2], independent of each other, on A and biomass production have been widely investigated, the interaction between these two major global changes has not been tested on field-grown crops. Here, the interactive effect of both elevated [CO2] (approximately 585 μmol mol(-1)) and temperature (+3.5°C) on soybean (Glycine max) A, biomass, and yield were tested over two growing seasons in the Temperature by Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiment at the Soybean Free Air CO2 Enrichment facility. Measurements of A, stomatal conductance, and intercellular [CO2] were collected along with meteorological, water potential, and growth data. Elevated temperatures caused lower A, which was largely attributed to declines in stomatal conductance and intercellular [CO2] and led in turn to lower yields. Increasing both [CO2] and temperature stimulated A relative to elevated [CO2] alone on only two sampling days during 2009 and on no days in 2011. In 2011, the warmer of the two years, there were no observed increases in yield in the elevated temperature plots regardless of whether [CO2] was elevated. All treatments lowered the harvest index for soybean, although the effect of elevated [CO2] in 2011 was not statistically significant. These results provide a better understanding of the physiological responses of soybean to future climate change conditions and suggest that the potential is limited for elevated [CO2] to mitigate the influence of rising temperatures on photosynthesis, growth, and yields of C3 crops.}, }
@article {pmid23505264, year = {2013}, author = {Dijkstra, FA and Morgan, JA and Follett, RF and Lecain, DR}, title = {Climate change reduces the net sink of CH4 and N2O in a semiarid grassland.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {1816-1826}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12182}, pmid = {23505264}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Methane/*metabolism ; Nitrogen Oxides/*metabolism ; *Poaceae ; }, abstract = {Atmospheric concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2 O) have increased over the last 150 years because of human activity. Soils are important sources and sinks of both potent greenhouse gases where their production and consumption are largely regulated by biological processes. Climate change could alter these processes thereby affecting both rate and direction of their exchange with the atmosphere. We examined how a rise in atmospheric CO2 and temperature affected CH4 and N2 O fluxes in a well-drained upland soil (volumetric water content ranging between 6% and 23%) in a semiarid grassland during five growing seasons. We hypothesized that responses of CH4 and N2 O fluxes to elevated CO2 and warming would be driven primarily by treatment effects on soil moisture. Previously we showed that elevated CO2 increased and warming decreased soil moisture in this grassland. We therefore expected that elevated CO2 and warming would have opposing effects on CH4 and N2 O fluxes. Methane was taken up throughout the growing season in all 5 years. A bell-shaped relationship was observed with soil moisture with highest CH4 uptake at intermediate soil moisture. Both N2 O emission and uptake occurred at our site with some years showing cumulative N2 O emission and other years showing cumulative N2 O uptake. Nitrous oxide exchange switched from net uptake to net emission with increasing soil moisture. In contrast to our hypothesis, both elevated CO2 and warming reduced the sink of CH4 and N2 O expressed in CO2 equivalents (across 5 years by 7% and 11% for elevated CO2 and warming respectively) suggesting that soil moisture changes were not solely responsible for this reduction. We conclude that in a future climate this semiarid grassland may become a smaller sink for atmospheric CH4 and N2 O expressed in CO2 -equivalents.}, }
@article {pmid23505261, year = {2013}, author = {Alberto, FJ and Aitken, SN and Alía, R and González-Martínez, SC and Hänninen, H and Kremer, A and Lefèvre, F and Lenormand, T and Yeaman, S and Whetten, R and Savolainen, O}, title = {Potential for evolutionary responses to climate change - evidence from tree populations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {1645-1661}, pmid = {23505261}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; *Climate Change ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Geography ; Species Specificity ; Trees/*genetics/physiology ; }, abstract = {Evolutionary responses are required for tree populations to be able to track climate change. Results of 250 years of common garden experiments show that most forest trees have evolved local adaptation, as evidenced by the adaptive differentiation of populations in quantitative traits, reflecting environmental conditions of population origins. On the basis of the patterns of quantitative variation for 19 adaptation-related traits studied in 59 tree species (mostly temperate and boreal species from the Northern hemisphere), we found that genetic differentiation between populations and clinal variation along environmental gradients were very common (respectively, 90% and 78% of cases). Thus, responding to climate change will likely require that the quantitative traits of populations again match their environments. We examine what kind of information is needed for evaluating the potential to respond, and what information is already available. We review the genetic models related to selection responses, and what is known currently about the genetic basis of the traits. We address special problems to be found at the range margins, and highlight the need for more modeling to understand specific issues at southern and northern margins. We need new common garden experiments for less known species. For extensively studied species, new experiments are needed outside the current ranges. Improving genomic information will allow better prediction of responses. Competitive and other interactions within species and interactions between species deserve more consideration. Despite the long generation times, the strong background in quantitative genetics and growing genomic resources make forest trees useful species for climate change research. The greatest adaptive response is expected when populations are large, have high genetic variability, selection is strong, and there is ecological opportunity for establishment of better adapted genotypes.}, }
@article {pmid23505157, year = {2013}, author = {Peñuelas, J and Sardans, J and Estiarte, M and Ogaya, R and Carnicer, J and Coll, M and Barbeta, A and Rivas-Ubach, A and Llusià, J and Garbulsky, M and Filella, I and Jump, AS}, title = {Evidence of current impact of climate change on life: a walk from genes to the biosphere.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {2303-2338}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12143}, pmid = {23505157}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Biota ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Invertebrates/genetics/*physiology ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/genetics ; Vertebrates/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of several antistress compounds and to change their physiology, phenology, growth and reproduction in response to climate change. Rapid adaptation and microevolution occur at the population level. Together with these phenotypic and genotypic adaptations, the movement of organisms and the turnover of populations can lead to migration toward habitats with better conditions unless hindered by barriers. Both migration and local extinction of populations have occurred. However, many unknowns for all these processes remain. The roles of phenotypic plasticity and genotypic evolution and their possible trade-offs and links with population structure warrant further research. The application of omic techniques to ecological studies will greatly favor this research. It remains poorly understood how climate change will result in asymmetrical responses of species and how it will interact with other increasing global impacts, such as N eutrophication, changes in environmental N : P ratios and species invasion, among many others. The biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks on climate of all these changes in vegetation are also poorly understood. We here review the evidence of responses to climate change and discuss the perspectives for increasing our knowledge of the interactions between climate change and life.}, }
@article {pmid23505145, year = {2013}, author = {Fuentes, MM and Pike, DA and Dimatteo, A and Wallace, BP}, title = {Resilience of marine turtle regional management units to climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {1399-1406}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12138}, pmid = {23505145}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Enhancing species resilience to changing environmental conditions is often suggested as a climate change adaptation strategy. To effectively achieve this, it is necessary first to understand the factors that determine species resilience, and their relative importance in shaping the ability of species to adjust to the complexities of environmental change. This is an extremely challenging task because it requires comprehensive information on species traits. We explored the resilience of 58 marine turtle regional management units (RMUs) to climate change, encompassing all seven species of marine turtles worldwide. We used expert opinion from the IUCN-SSC Marine Turtle Specialist Group (n = 33 respondents) to develop a Resilience Index, which considered qualitative characteristics of each RMU (relative population size, rookery vulnerability, and genetic diversity) and non climate-related threats (fisheries, take, coastal development, and pollution/pathogens). Our expert panel perceived rookery vulnerability (the likelihood of functional rookeries becoming extirpated) and non climate-related threats as having the greatest influence on resilience of RMUs to climate change. We identified the world's 13 least resilient marine turtle RMUs to climate change, which are distributed within all three major ocean basins and include six of the world's seven species of marine turtle. Our study provides the first look at inter- and intra-species variation in resilience to climate change and highlights the need to devise metrics that measure resilience directly. We suggest that this approach can be widely used to help prioritize future actions that increase species resilience to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23505098, year = {2013}, author = {Roberts, JJ and Fausch, KD and Peterson, DP and Hooten, MB}, title = {Fragmentation and thermal risks from climate change interact to affect persistence of native trout in the Colorado River basin.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {1383-1398}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12136}, pmid = {23505098}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Hot Temperature ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; *Rivers ; Seasons ; Southwestern United States ; Trout/*physiology ; Wyoming ; }, abstract = {Impending changes in climate will interact with other stressors to threaten aquatic ecosystems and their biota. Native Colorado River cutthroat trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus) are now relegated to 309 isolated high-elevation (>1700 m) headwater stream fragments in the Upper Colorado River Basin, owing to past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss. Predicted changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and resulting changes in stochastic physical disturbances (i.e., wildfire, debris flow, and channel drying and freezing) could further threaten the remaining CRCT populations. We developed an empirical model to predict stream temperatures at the fragment scale from downscaled climate projections along with geomorphic and landscape variables. We coupled these spatially explicit predictions of stream temperature with a Bayesian Network (BN) model that integrates stochastic risks from fragmentation to project persistence of CRCT populations across the upper Colorado River basin to 2040 and 2080. Overall, none of the populations are at risk from acute mortality resulting from high temperatures during the warmest summer period. In contrast, only 37% of populations have a ≥90% chance of persistence for 70 years (similar to the typical benchmark for conservation), primarily owing to fragmentation. Populations in short stream fragments <7 km long, and those at the lowest elevations, are at the highest risk of extirpation. Therefore, interactions of stochastic disturbances with fragmentation are projected to be greater threats than warming for CRCT populations. The reason for this paradox is that past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss have restricted most CRCT populations to high-elevation stream fragments that are buffered from the potential consequences of warming, but at risk of extirpation from stochastic events. The greatest conservation need is for management to increase fragment lengths to forestall these risks.}, }
@article {pmid23505064, year = {2013}, author = {Pratt, JD and Mooney, KA}, title = {Clinal adaptation and adaptive plasticity in Artemisia californica: implications for the response of a foundation species to predicted climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {2454-2466}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12199}, pmid = {23505064}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Artemisia/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; California ; Climate Change ; *Phenotype ; *Rain ; }, abstract = {Local adaptation and plasticity pose significant obstacles to predicting plant responses to future climates. Although local adaptation and plasticity in plant functional traits have been documented for many species, less is known about population-level variation in plasticity and whether such variation is driven by adaptation to environmental variation. We examined clinal variation in traits and performance - and plastic responses to environmental change - for the shrub Artemisia californica along a 700 km gradient characterized (from south to north) by a fourfold increase in precipitation and a 61% decrease in interannual precipitation variation. Plants cloned from five populations along this gradient were grown for 3 years in treatments approximating the precipitation regimes of the north and south range margins. Most traits varying among populations did so clinally; northern populations (vs. southern) had higher water-use efficiencies and lower growth rates, C : N ratios and terpene concentrations. Notably, there was variation in plasticity for plant performance that was strongly correlated with source site interannual precipitation variability. The high-precipitation treatment (vs. low) increased growth and flower production more for plants from southern populations (181% and 279%, respectively) than northern populations (47% and 20%, respectively). Overall, precipitation variability at population source sites predicted 86% and 99% of variation in plasticity in growth and flowering, respectively. These striking, clinal patterns in plant traits and plasticity are indicative of adaptation to both the mean and variability of environmental conditions. Furthermore, our analysis of long-term coastal climate data in turn indicates an increase in interannual precipitation variation consistent with most global change models and, unexpectedly, this increased variation is especially pronounced at historically stable, northern sites. Our findings demonstrate the critical need to integrate fundamental evolutionary processes into global change models, as contemporary patterns of adaptation to environmental clines will mediate future plant responses to projected climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23505017, year = {2013}, author = {Prost, S and Klietmann, J and van Kolfschoten, T and Guralnick, RP and Waltari, E and Vrieling, K and Stiller, M and Nagel, D and Rabeder, G and Hofreiter, M and Sommer, RS}, title = {Effects of late quaternary climate change on Palearctic shrews.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {1865-1874}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12153}, pmid = {23505017}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Cluster Analysis ; DNA/genetics ; Models, Theoretical ; Shrews/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The Late Quaternary was a time of rapid climatic oscillations and drastic environmental changes. In general, species can respond to such changes by behavioral accommodation, distributional shifts, ecophenotypic modifications (nongenetic), evolution (genetic) or ultimately face local extinction. How those responses manifested in the past is essential for properly predicting future ones especially as the current warm phase is further intensified by rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here, we use ancient DNA (aDNA) and morphological features in combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM) to investigate genetic and nongenetic responses of Central European Palearctic shrews to past climatic change. We show that a giant form of shrew, previously described as an extinct Pleistocene Sorex species, represents a large ecomorph of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), which was replaced by populations from a different gene-pool and with different morphology after the Pleistocene Holocene transition. We also report the presence of the cold-adapted tundra shrew (S. tundrensis) in Central Europe. This species is currently restricted to Siberia and was hitherto unknown as an element of the Pleistocene fauna of Europe. Finally, we show that there is no clear correlation between climatic oscillations within the last 50 000 years and body size in shrews and conclude that a special nonanalogous situation with regard to biodiversity and food supply in the Late Glacial may have caused the observed large body size.}, }
@article {pmid23505016, year = {2013}, author = {Jenouvrier, S}, title = {Impacts of climate change on avian populations.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {2036-2057}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12195}, pmid = {23505016}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding, and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate-population processes, along with improved long-term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its benefit using birds as examples. Birds are one of the best-studied groups and a large number of studies have detected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e., life history traits, such as survival, maturation, or breeding, affecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted effects of climate with direct, indirect, time-lagged, and nonlinear effects. However, few studies integrate these effects into a climate-dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate variables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the 'population robustness to climate change.' The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species. Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC-class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multiclimate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully specified uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes.}, }
@article {pmid23505006, year = {2013}, author = {Pope, KS and Dose, V and Da Silva, D and Brown, PH and Leslie, CA and Dejong, TM}, title = {Detecting nonlinear response of spring phenology to climate change by Bayesian analysis.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {1518-1525}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12130}, pmid = {23505006}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; California ; *Climate Change ; Juglans/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on the advancement of plant phenological events has been heavily studied in the last decade. Although the majority of spring plant phenological events have been trending earlier, this is not universally true. Recent work has suggested that species that are not advancing in their spring phenological behavior are responding more to lack of winter chill than increased spring heat. One way to test this hypothesis is by evaluating the behavior of a species known to have a moderate to high chilling requirement and examining how it is responding to increased warming. This study used a 60-year data set for timing of leaf-out and male flowering of walnut (Juglans regia) cultivar 'Payne' to examine this issue. The spring phenological behavior of 'Payne' walnut differed depending on bud type. The vegetative buds, which have a higher chilling requirement, trended toward earlier leaf-out until about 1994, when they shifted to later leaf-out. The date of male bud pollen shedding advanced over the course of the whole record. Our findings suggest that many species which have exhibited earlier bud break are responding to warmer spring temperatures, but may shift into responding more to winter temperatures (lack of adequate chilling) as warming continues.}, }
@article {pmid23504950, year = {2013}, author = {Moore, AD and Ghahramani, A}, title = {Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity, and on sustainable levels of profitability.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {1440-1455}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12150}, pmid = {23504950}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry/economics/*methods ; Animals ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/economics/*growth &amp; development ; Livestock ; Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Broadacre livestock production is a major but highly diverse component of agriculture in Australia that will be significantly exposed to predicted changes in climate over coming decades. We used the GRAZPLAN simulation models to assess the impacts of climate change under the SRES A2 scenario across southern Australia. Climate change impacts were examined across space (25 representative locations) and time (1970-99, 2030, 2050 and 2070 climate) for each of five livestock enterprises. Climate projection uncertainty was considered by analysing projections from four global circulation models (GCMs). Livestock production scenarios were compared at their profit-maximizing stocking rate, constrained to ensure that risks of soil erosion were acceptable. Impacts on net primary productivity (ANPP) varied widely between GCM projections; the average declines from historical climate were 9% in 2030, 7% in 2050 and 14% in 2070. Declines in ANPP were larger at lower-rainfall locations. Sensitivity of ANPP to changes in rainfall ranged from 0.4 to 1.7, to temperature increase from -0.15 to +0.07 °C(-1) and to CO2 increase from 0.11 to 0.32. At most locations the dry summer period lengthened, exacerbating the greater erosion risk due to lower ANPP. Transpiration efficiency of pastures increased by 6-25%, but the proportion of ANPP that could safely be consumed by livestock fell sharply so that operating profit (at constant prices) fell by an average of 27% in 2030, 32% in 2050 and 48% in 2070. This amplification of ANPP reductions into larger profitability declines is likely to generalize to other extensive livestock systems. Profit declines were most marked at drier locations, with operating losses expected at 9 of the 25 locations by 2070. Differences between livestock enterprises were smaller than differences between locations and dates. Future research into climate change impacts on Australian livestock production needs to emphasise the dry margin of the cereal-livestock zone.}, }
@article {pmid23504931, year = {2013}, author = {Osland, MJ and Enwright, N and Day, RH and Doyle, TW}, title = {Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {1482-1494}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12126}, pmid = {23504931}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Seasons ; Southeastern United States ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970-2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh-mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.}, }
@article {pmid23504905, year = {2013}, author = {Campbell, RD and Newman, C and Macdonald, DW and Rosell, F}, title = {Proximate weather patterns and spring green-up phenology effect Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) body mass and reproductive success: the implications of climate change and topography.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {4}, pages = {1311-1324}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12114}, pmid = {23504905}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; Asia ; *Body Weight ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Plant Development ; Reproduction ; Rodentia/*physiology ; *Seasons ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Low spring temperatures have been found to benefit mobile herbivores by reducing the rate of spring-flush, whereas high rainfall increases forage availability. Cold winters prove detrimental, by increasing herbivore thermoregulatory burdens. Here we examine the effects of temperature and rainfall variability on a temperate sedentary herbivore, the Eurasian beaver, Castor fiber, in terms of inter-annual variation in mean body weight and per territory offspring production. Data pertain to 198 individuals, over 11 years, using capture-mark-recapture. We use plant growth (tree cores) and fAPAR (a satellite-derived plant productivity index) to examine potential mechanisms through which weather conditions affect the availability and the seasonal phenology of beaver forage. Juvenile body weights were lighter after colder winters, whereas warmer spring temperatures were associated with lighter adult body weights, mediated by enhanced green-up phenology rates. Counter-intuitively, we observed a negative association between rainfall and body weight in juveniles and adults, and also with reproductive success. Alder, Alnus incana, (n = 68) growth rings (principal beaver food in the study area) exhibited a positive relationship with rainfall for trees growing at elevations >2 m above water level, but a negative relationship for trees growing <0.5 m. We deduce that temperature influences beavers at the landscape scale via effects on spring green-up phenology and winter thermoregulation. Rainfall influences beavers at finer spatial scales through topographical interactions with plant growth, where trees near water level, prone to water logging, producing poorer forage in wetter years. Unlike most other herbivores, beavers are an obligate aquatic species that utilize a restricted 'central-place' foraging range, limiting their ability to take advantage of better forage growth further from water during wetter years. With respect to anthropogenic climate change, interactions between weather variables, plant phenology and topography on forage growth are instructive, and consequently warrant examination when developing conservation management strategies for populations of medium to large herbivores.}, }
@article {pmid23504901, year = {2013}, author = {Fennell, M and Murphy, JE and Gallagher, T and Osborne, B}, title = {Simulating the effects of climate change on the distribution of an invasive plant, using a high resolution, local scale, mechanistic approach: challenges and insights.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {4}, pages = {1262-1274}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12102}, pmid = {23504901}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Introduced Species ; *Models, Theoretical ; Plants/*classification ; }, abstract = {The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate-induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread-rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters.}, }
@article {pmid23504899, year = {2013}, author = {Bagchi, R and Crosby, M and Huntley, B and Hole, DG and Butchart, SH and Collingham, Y and Kalra, M and Rajkumar, J and Rahmani, A and Pandey, M and Gurung, H and Trai, le T and Van Quang, N and Willis, SG}, title = {Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation site networks under climate change: accounting for uncertainty.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {4}, pages = {1236-1248}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12123}, pmid = {23504899}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Models, Theoretical ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {We forecasted potential impacts of climate change on the ability of a network of key sites for bird conservation (Important Bird Areas; IBAs) to provide suitable climate for 370 bird species of current conservation concern in two Asian biodiversity hotspots: the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong. Comparable studies have largely not accounted for uncertainty, which may lead to inappropriate conclusions. We quantified the contribution of four sources of variation (choice of general circulation models, emission scenarios and species distribution modelling methods and variation in species distribution data) to uncertainty in forecasts and tested if our projections were robust to these uncertainties. Declines in the availability of suitable climate within the IBA network by 2100 were forecast as 'extremely likely' for 45% of species, whereas increases were projected for only 2%. Thus, we predict almost 24 times as many 'losers' as 'winners'. However, for no species was suitable climate 'extremely likely' to be completely lost from the network. Considerable turnover (median = 43%, 95% CI = 35-69%) in species compositions of most IBAs were projected by 2100. Climatic conditions in 47% of IBAs were projected as 'extremely likely' to become suitable for fewer priority species. However, no IBA was forecast to become suitable for more species. Variation among General Circulation Models and Species Distribution Models contributed most to uncertainty among forecasts. This uncertainty precluded firm conclusions for 53% of species and IBAs because 95% confidence intervals included projections of no change. Considering this uncertainty, however, allows robust recommendations concerning the remaining species and IBAs. Overall, while the IBA network will continue to sustain bird conservation, climate change will modify which species each site will be suitable for. Thus, adaptive management of the network, including modified site conservation strategies and facilitating species' movement among sites, is critical to ensure effective future conservation.}, }
@article {pmid23504896, year = {2013}, author = {Zhou, G and Peng, C and Li, Y and Liu, S and Zhang, Q and Tang, X and Liu, J and Yan, J and Zhang, D and Chu, G}, title = {A climate change-induced threat to the ecological resilience of a subtropical monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in Southern China.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {4}, pages = {1197-1210}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12128}, pmid = {23504896}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecology ; *Trees ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Recent studies have suggested that tropical forests may not be resilient against climate change in the long term, primarily owing to predicted reductions in rainfall and forest productivity, increased tree mortality, and declining forest biomass carbon sinks. These changes will be caused by drought-induced water stress and ecosystem disturbances. Several recent studies have reported that climate change has increased tree mortality in temperate and boreal forests, or both mortality and recruitment rates in tropical forests. However, no study has yet examined these changes in the subtropical forests that account for the majority of China's forested land. In this study, we describe how the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest has responded to global warming and drought stress using 32 years of data from forest observation plots. Due to an imbalance in mortality and recruitment, and changes in diameter growth rates between larger and smaller trees and among different functional groups, the average DBH of trees and forest biomass have decreased. Sap flow measurements also showed that larger trees were more stressed than smaller trees by the warming and drying environment. As a result, the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest community is undergoing a transition from a forest dominated by a cohort of fewer and larger individuals to a forest dominated by a cohort of more and smaller individuals, with a different species composition, suggesting that subtropical forests are threatened by their lack of resilience against long-term climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23504886, year = {2013}, author = {Floury, M and Usseglio-Polatera, P and Ferreol, M and Delattre, C and Souchon, Y}, title = {Global climate change in large European rivers: long-term effects on macroinvertebrate communities and potential local confounding factors.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {4}, pages = {1085-1099}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12124}, pmid = {23504886}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; Confounding Factors, Epidemiologic ; Europe ; *Global Warming ; Invertebrates/classification/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Aquatic species living in running waters are widely acknowledged to be vulnerable to climate-induced, thermal and hydrological fluctuations. Climate changes can interact with other environmental changes to determine structural and functional attributes of communities. Although such complex interactions are most likely to occur in a multiple-stressor context as frequently encountered in large rivers, they have received little attention in such ecosystems. In this study, we aimed at specifically addressing the issue of relative long-term effects of global and local changes on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in multistressed large rivers. We assessed effects of hydroclimatic vs. water quality factors on invertebrate community structure and composition over 30 years (1979-2008) in the Middle Loire River, France. As observed in other large European rivers, water warming over the three decades (+0.9 °C between 1979-1988 and 1999-2008) and to a lesser extent discharge reduction (-80 m(3) s(-1)) were significantly involved in the disappearance or decrease in taxa typical from fast running, cold waters (e.g. Chloroperlidae and Potamanthidae). They explained also a major part of the appearance and increase of taxa typical from slow flowing or standing waters and warmer temperatures, including invasive species (e.g. Corbicula sp. and Atyaephyra desmarestii). However, this shift towards a generalist and pollution tolerant assemblage was partially confounded by local improvement in water quality (i.e. phosphate input reduction by about two thirds and eutrophication limitation by almost one half), explaining a significant part of the settlement of new pollution-sensitive taxa (e.g. the caddisfly Brachycentridae and Philopotamidae families) during the last years of the study period. The regain in such taxa allowed maintaining a certain level of specialization in the invertebrate community despite climate change effects.}, }
@article {pmid23504848, year = {2013}, author = {Chen, X and Chen, F and Chen, Y and Gao, Q and Yang, X and Yuan, L and Zhang, F and Mi, G}, title = {Modern maize hybrids in Northeast China exhibit increased yield potential and resource use efficiency despite adverse climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {923-936}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12093}, pmid = {23504848}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Hybridization, Genetic ; Models, Biological ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Soil ; Zea mays/genetics/metabolism/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The impact of global changes on food security is of serious concern. Breeding novel crop cultivars adaptable to climate change is one potential solution, but this approach requires an understanding of complex adaptive traits for climate-change conditions. In this study, plant growth, nitrogen (N) uptake, and yield in relation to climatic resource use efficiency of nine representative maize cultivars released between 1973 and 2000 in China were investigated in a 2-year field experiment under three N applications. The Hybrid-Maize model was used to simulate maize yield potential in the period from 1973 to 2011. During the past four decades, the total thermal time (growing degree days) increased whereas the total precipitation and sunshine hours decreased. This climate change led to a reduction of maize potential yield by an average of 12.9% across different hybrids. However, the potential yield of individual hybrids increased by 118.5 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) with increasing year of release. From 1973 to 2000, the use efficiency of sunshine hours, thermal time, and precipitation resources increased by 37%, 40%, and 41%, respectively. The late developed hybrids showed less reduction in yield potential in current climate conditions than old cultivars, indicating some adaptation to new conditions. Since the mid-1990s, however, the yield impact of climate change exhibited little change, and even a slight worsening for new cultivars. Modern breeding increased ear fertility and grain-filling rate, and delayed leaf senescence without modification in net photosynthetic rate. The trade-off associated with delayed leaf senescence was decreased grain N concentration rather than increased plant N uptake, therefore N agronomic efficiency increased simultaneously. It is concluded that modern maize hybrids tolerate the climatic changes mainly by constitutively optimizing plant productivity. Maize breeding programs in the future should pay more attention to cope with the limiting climate factors specifically.}, }
@article {pmid23504839, year = {2013}, author = {Seabloom, EW and Ruggiero, P and Hacker, SD and Mull, J and Zarnetske, P}, title = {Invasive grasses, climate change, and exposure to storm-wave overtopping in coastal dune ecosystems.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {824-832}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12078}, pmid = {23504839}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Introduced Species ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The world's coastal habitats are critical to human well-being, but are also highly sensitive to human habitat alterations and climate change. In particular, global climate is increasing sea levels and potentially altering storm intensities, which may result in increased risk of flooding in coastal areas. In the Pacific Northwest (USA), coastal dunes that protect the coast from flooding are largely the product of a grass introduced from Europe over a century ago (Ammophila arenaria). An introduced congener (A. breviligulata) is displacing A. arenaria and reducing dune height. Here we quantify the relative exposure to storm-wave induced dune overtopping posed by the A. breviligulata invasion in the face of projected multi-decadal changes in sea level and storm intensity. In our models, altered storm intensity was the largest driver of overtopping extent, however the invasion by A. breviligulata tripled the number of areas vulnerable to overtopping and posed a fourfold larger exposure than sea-level rise over multi-decadal time scales. Our work demonstrates the importance of a transdisciplinary approach that draws on insights from ecology, geomorphology, and civil engineering to assess the vulnerability of ecosystem services in light of global change.}, }
@article {pmid23504832, year = {2013}, author = {Isaak, DJ and Rieman, BE}, title = {Stream isotherm shifts from climate change and implications for distributions of ectothermic organisms.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {742-751}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12073}, pmid = {23504832}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes ; }, abstract = {Stream ecosystems are especially vulnerable to climate warming because most aquatic organisms are ectothermic and live in dendritic networks that are easily fragmented. Many bioclimatic models predict significant range contractions in stream biotas, but subsequent biological assessments have rarely been done to determine the accuracy of these predictions. Assessments are difficult because model predictions are either untestable or so imprecise that definitive answers may not be obtained within timespans relevant for effective conservation. Here, we develop the equations for calculating isotherm shift rates (ISRs) in streams that can be used to represent historic or future warming scenarios and be calibrated to individual streams using local measurements of stream temperature and slope. A set of reference equations and formulas are provided for application to most streams. Example calculations for streams with lapse rates of 0.8 °C/100 m and long-term warming rates of 0.1-0.2 °C decade(-1) indicate that isotherms shift upstream at 0.13-1.3 km decade(-1) in steep streams (2-10% slope) and 1.3-25 km decade(-1) in flat streams (0.1-1% slope). Used more generally with global scenarios, the equations predict isotherms shifted 1.5-43 km in many streams during the 20th Century as air temperatures increased by 0.6 °C and would shift another 5-143 km in the first half of the 21st Century if midrange projections of a 2 °C air temperature increase occur. Variability analysis suggests that short-term variation associated with interannual stream temperature changes will mask long-term isotherm shifts for several decades in most locations, so extended biological monitoring efforts are required to document anticipated distribution shifts. Resampling of historical sites could yield estimates of biological responses in the short term and should be prioritized to validate bioclimatic models and develop a better understanding about the effects of temperature increases on stream biotas.}, }
@article {pmid23504829, year = {2013}, author = {Piou, C and Prévost, E}, title = {Contrasting effects of climate change in continental vs. oceanic environments on population persistence and microevolution of Atlantic salmon.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {711-723}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12085}, pmid = {23504829}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Extinction, Biological ; Female ; *Fresh Water ; Male ; Probability ; Salmon/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; *Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Facing climate change (CC), species are prone to multiple modifications in their environment that can lead to extinction, migration or adaptation. Identifying the role and interplay of different potential stressors becomes a key question. Anadromous fishes will be exposed to both river and oceanic habitat changes. For Atlantic salmon, the river water temperature, river flow and oceanic growth conditions appear as three main stressing factors. They could act on population dynamics or as selective forces on life-history pathways. Using an individual-based demo-genetic model, we assessed the effects of these factors (1) to compare risks of extinction resulting from CC in river and ocean, and (2) to assess CC effects on life-history pathways including the evolution of underlying genetic control of phenotypic plasticity. We focused on Atlantic salmon populations from Southern Europe for a time horizon of three decades. We showed that CC in river alone should not lead to extinction of Southern European salmon populations. In contrast, the reduced oceanic growth appeared as a significant threat for population persistence. An increase in river flow amplitude increased the risk of local extinction in synergy with the oceanic effects, but river temperature rise reduced this risk. In terms of life-history modifications, the reduced oceanic growth increased the age of return of individuals through plastic and genetic responses. The river temperature rise increased the proportion of sexually mature parr, but the genetic evolution of the maturation threshold lowered the maturation rate of male parr. This was identified as a case of environmentally driven plastic response that masked an underlying evolutionary response of plasticity going in the opposite direction. We concluded that to counteract oceanic effects, river flow management represented the sole potential force to reduce the extinction probability of Atlantic salmon populations in Southern Europe, although this might not impede changes in migration life history.}, }
@article {pmid23504796, year = {2013}, author = {Fan, Z and David McGuire, A and Turetsky, MR and Harden, JW and Michael Waddington, J and Kane, ES}, title = {The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {604-620}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12041}, pmid = {23504796}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Alaska ; Calibration ; *Carbon ; *Climate Change ; *Soil ; *Sphagnopsida ; }, abstract = {It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO2 and CH4 could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process-based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS-TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005-2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water-table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO2 emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid23504792, year = {2013}, author = {Kim, HY and Ko, J and Kang, S and Tenhunen, J}, title = {Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {548-562}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12047}, pmid = {23504792}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Calibration ; *Climate Change ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Models, Theoretical ; *Oryza ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the East Asian monsoon system using the CERES-Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO2 and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber (TGFC) with a CO2 enrichment system installed at Chonnam National University in Gwangju, Korea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other Japonica rice growing regions in East Asia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in Gwangju, Korea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO2 elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (-22.1% and -35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in Harbin, China. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES-Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system.}, }
@article {pmid23504780, year = {2013}, author = {Auer, SK and Martin, TE}, title = {Climate change has indirect effects on resource use and overlap among coexisting bird species with negative consequences for their reproductive success.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {411-419}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12062}, pmid = {23504780}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/classification/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Climate change can modify ecological interactions, but whether it can have cascading effects throughout ecological networks of multiple interacting species remains poorly studied. Climate-driven alterations in the intensity of plant-herbivore interactions may have particularly profound effects on the larger community because plants provide habitat for a wide diversity of organisms. Here we show that changes in vegetation over the last 21 years, due to climate effects on plant-herbivore interactions, have consequences for songbird nest site overlap and breeding success. Browsing-induced reductions in the availability of preferred nesting sites for two of three ground nesting songbirds led to increasing overlap in nest site characteristics among all three bird species with increasingly negative consequences for reproductive success over the long term. These results demonstrate that changes in the vegetation community from effects of climate change on plant-herbivore interactions can cause subtle shifts in ecological interactions that have critical demographic ramifications for other species in the larger community.}, }
@article {pmid23504778, year = {2013}, author = {Buisson, L and Grenouillet, G and Villéger, S and Canal, J and Laffaille, P}, title = {Toward a loss of functional diversity in stream fish assemblages under climate change.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {387-400}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12056}, pmid = {23504778}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Fishes/classification/*physiology ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {The assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity has so far been biased toward the taxonomic identification of the species likely either to benefit from climate modifications or to experience overall declines. There have still been few studies intended to correlate the characteristics of species to their sensitivity to climate change, even though it is now recognized that functional trait-based approaches are promising tools for addressing challenges related to global changes. In this study, two functional indices (originality and uniqueness) were first measured for 35 fish species occurring in French streams. They were then combined to projections of range shifts in response to climate change derived from species distribution models. We set out to investigate: (1) the relationship between the degrees of originality and uniqueness of fish species, and their projected response to future climate change; and (2) the consequences of individual responses of species for the functional diversity of fish assemblages. After accounting for phylogenetic relatedness among species, we have demonstrated that the two indices used measure two complementary facets of the position of fish species in a functional space. We have also rejected the hypothesis that the most original and/or less redundant species would necessarily experience the greatest declines in habitat suitability as a result of climate change. However, individual species range shifts could lead simultaneously both to a severe decline in the functional diversity of fish assemblages, and to an increase in the functional similarity among assemblages, supporting the hypothesis that disturbance favors communities with combination of common traits and biotic homogenization as well. Our findings therefore emphasize the importance of going beyond the simple taxonomic description of diversity to provide a better assessment of the likely future effects of environmental changes on biodiversity, thus helping to design more effective conservation and management measures.}, }
@article {pmid23504777, year = {2013}, author = {Bartolini, F and Barausse, A and Pörtner, HO and Giomi, F}, title = {Climate change reduces offspring fitness in littoral spawners: a study integrating organismic response and long-term time-series.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {373-386}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12050}, pmid = {23504777}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Crustacea/embryology/*physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Integrating long-term ecological observations with experimental findings on species response and tolerance to environmental stress supports an understanding of climate effects on population dynamics. Here, we combine the two approaches, laboratory experiments and analysis of multi-decadal time-series, to understand the consequences of climate anomalies and ongoing change for the population dynamics of a eurythermal littoral species, Carcinus aestuarii. For the generation of cause and effect hypotheses we investigated the thermal response of crab embryos at four developmental stages. We first measured metabolic rate variations in embryos following acute warming (16-24 °C) and after incubation at 20 and 24 °C for limited periods. All experiments consistently revealed differential thermal responses depending on the developmental stage. Temperature-induced changes in metabolic activity of early embryonic stages of blastula and gastrula suggested the onset of abnormal development. In contrast, later developmental stages, characterized by tissue and organ differentiation, were marginally affected by temperature anomalies, indicating enhanced resilience to thermal stress. Then, we extended these findings to a larger, population scale, by analyzing a time-series of C. aestuarii landings in the Venice lagoon from 1945 to 2010 (ripe crabs were recorded separately) in relation to temperature. Landings and extreme climatic events showed marked long-term and short-term variations. We found negative relationships between landings and thermal stress indices on both timescales, with time lags consistent with an impact on crab early life stages. When quantitatively evaluating the influence of thermal stress on population dynamics, we found that it has a comparable effect to that of the biomass of spawners. This work provides strong evidence that physiological responses to climatic anomalies translate into population-level changes and that apparently tolerant species may be impacted before the ontogeny of eurythermy. These ontogenetic bottlenecks markedly shape population dynamics and require study to assess the effects of global change.}, }
@article {pmid23504731, year = {2013}, author = {Johansson, J and Bolmgren, K and Jonzén, N}, title = {Climate change and the optimal flowering time of annual plants in seasonal environments.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {197-207}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12006}, pmid = {23504731}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Flowers ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Long-term phenology monitoring has documented numerous examples of changing flowering dates during the last century. A pivotal question is whether these phenological responses are adaptive or not under directionally changing climatic conditions. We use a classic dynamic growth model for annual plants, based on optimal control theory, to find the fitness-maximizing flowering time, defined as the switching time from vegetative to reproductive growth. In a typical scenario of global warming, with advanced growing season and increased productivity, optimal flowering time advances less than the start of the growing season. Interestingly, increased temporal spread in production over the season may either advance or delay the optimal flowering time depending on overall productivity or season length. We identify situations where large phenological changes are necessary for flowering time to remain optimal. Such changes also indicate changed selection pressures. In other situations, the model predicts advanced phenology on a calendar scale, but no selection for early flowering in relation to the start of the season. We also show that the optimum is more sensitive to increased productivity when productivity is low than when productivity is high. All our results are derived using a general, graphical method to calculate the optimal flowering time applicable for a large range of shapes of the seasonal production curve. The model can thus explain apparent maladaptation in phenological responses in a multitude of scenarios of climate change. We conclude that taking energy allocation trade-offs and appropriate time scales into account is critical when interpreting phenological patterns.}, }
@article {pmid23504727, year = {2013}, author = {Aubry, LM and Rockwell, RF and Cooch, EG and Brook, RW and Mulder, CP and Koons, DN}, title = {Climate change, phenology, and habitat degradation: drivers of gosling body condition and juvenile survival in lesser snow geese.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {149-160}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12013}, pmid = {23504727}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geese/*physiology ; Survival Rate ; }, abstract = {Nesting migratory geese are among the dominant herbivores in (sub) arctic environments, which have undergone unprecedented increases in temperatures and plant growing days over the last three decades. Within these regions, the Hudson Bay Lowlands are home to an overabundant breeding population of lesser snow geese that has dramatically damaged the ecosystem, with cascading effects at multiple trophic levels. In some areas the overabundance of geese has led to a drastic reduction in available forage. In addition, warming of this region has widened the gap between goose migration timing and plant green-up, and this 'mismatch' between goose and plant phenologies could in turn affect gosling development. The dual effects of climate change and habitat quality on gosling body condition and juvenile survival are not known, but are critical for predicting population growth and related degradation of (sub) arctic ecosystems. To address these issues, we used information on female goslings marked and measured between 1978 and 2005 (4125 individuals). Goslings that developed within and near the traditional center of the breeding colony experienced the effects of long-term habitat degradation: body condition and juvenile survival declined over time. In newly colonized areas, however, we observed the opposite pattern (increase in body condition and juvenile survival). In addition, warmer than average winters and summers resulted in lower gosling body condition and first-year survival. Too few plant 'growing days' in the spring relative to hatch led to similar results. Our assessment indicates that geese are recovering from habitat degradation by moving to newly colonized locales. However, a warmer climate could negatively affect snow goose populations in the long-run, but it will depend on which seasons warm the fastest. These antagonistic mechanisms will require further study to help predict snow goose population dynamics and manage the trophic cascade they induce.}, }
@article {pmid23504724, year = {2013}, author = {Koch, M and Bowes, G and Ross, C and Zhang, XH}, title = {Climate change and ocean acidification effects on seagrasses and marine macroalgae.}, journal = {Global change biology}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {103-132}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02791.x}, pmid = {23504724}, issn = {1354-1013}, mesh = {Acids/*chemistry ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Marine Biology ; Oceans and Seas ; Photosynthesis ; *Poaceae ; *Seaweed ; }, abstract = {Although seagrasses and marine macroalgae (macro-autotrophs) play critical ecological roles in reef, lagoon, coastal and open-water ecosystems, their response to ocean acidification (OA) and climate change is not well understood. In this review, we examine marine macro-autotroph biochemistry and physiology relevant to their response to elevated dissolved inorganic carbon [DIC], carbon dioxide [CO2 ], and lower carbonate [CO3 (2-) ] and pH. We also explore the effects of increasing temperature under climate change and the interactions of elevated temperature and [CO2 ]. Finally, recommendations are made for future research based on this synthesis. A literature review of >100 species revealed that marine macro-autotroph photosynthesis is overwhelmingly C3 (≥ 85%) with most species capable of utilizing HCO3 (-) ; however, most are not saturated at current ocean [DIC]. These results, and the presence of CO2 -only users, lead us to conclude that photosynthetic and growth rates of marine macro-autotrophs are likely to increase under elevated [CO2 ] similar to terrestrial C3 species. In the tropics, many species live close to their thermal limits and will have to up-regulate stress-response systems to tolerate sublethal temperature exposures with climate change, whereas elevated [CO2 ] effects on thermal acclimation are unknown. Fundamental linkages between elevated [CO2 ] and temperature on photorespiration, enzyme systems, carbohydrate production, and calcification dictate the need to consider these two parameters simultaneously. Relevant to calcifiers, elevated [CO2 ] lowers net calcification and this effect is amplified by high temperature. Although the mechanisms are not clear, OA likely disrupts diffusion and transport systems of H(+) and DIC. These fluxes control micro-environments that promote calcification over dissolution and may be more important than CaCO3 mineralogy in predicting macroalgal responses to OA. Calcareous macroalgae are highly vulnerable to OA, and it is likely that fleshy macroalgae will dominate in a higher CO2 ocean; therefore, it is critical to elucidate the research gaps identified in this review.}, }
@article {pmid23504528, year = {2013}, author = {Zhou, Y and Li, N and Dong, G and Wu, W}, title = {Impact assessment of recent climate change on rice yields in the Heilongjiang Reclamation Area of north-east China.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {93}, number = {11}, pages = {2698-2706}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.6087}, pmid = {23504528}, issn = {1097-0010}, mesh = {Agriculture/*history ; China ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Oryza/*physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Investigating the degree to which climate change may have impacted on rice yields can provide an insight into how to adapt to climate change in the future. Meteorological and rice yield data over the period 1960-2009 from the Heilongjiang Reclamation Area of north-east China (HRANC) were used to explore the possible impacts of climate change on rice yields at sub-regional scale.<br><br>RESULTS: Results showed that a warming trend was obvious in the HRANC and discernible climate fluctuations and yield variations on inter-annual scale were detected to have occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively. Statistically positive correlation was observed between growing season temperature and rice yields, with an increase rate by approximately 3.60% for each 1&#xb0;C rise in the minimum temperature during growing season. Such findings are consistent with the current mainstream view that warming climate may exert positive impacts on crop yields in the middle and higher latitude regions.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our study indicated that the growing season minimum temperature was a major driver of all the climatic factors to the recent increase trends in rice yield in HRANC over the last five decades.}, }
@article {pmid23500677, year = {2013}, author = {Miranda, LA and Chalde, T and Elisio, M and Strüssmann, CA}, title = {Effects of global warming on fish reproductive endocrine axis, with special emphasis in pejerrey Odontesthes bonariensis.}, journal = {General and comparative endocrinology}, volume = {192}, number = {}, pages = {45-54}, doi = {10.1016/j.ygcen.2013.02.034}, pmid = {23500677}, issn = {1095-6840}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Gonads/*physiology ; Male ; Reproduction/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The ongoing of global warming trend has led to an increase in temperature of several water bodies. Reproduction in fish, compared with other physiological processes, only occurs in a bounded temperature range; therefore, small changes in water temperature could significantly affect this process. This review provides evidence that fish reproduction may be directly affected by further global warming and that abnormal high water temperature impairs the expression of important genes throughout the brain-pituitary-gonad axis. In all fishes studied, gonads seem to be the organ more readily damaged by heat treatments through the inhibition of the gene expression and subsequent synthesis of different gonadal steroidogenic enzymes. In view of the feedback role of sex steroids upon the synthesis and release of GnRH and GtHs in fish, it is possible that the inhibition observed at brain and pituitary levels in treated fish is consequence of the sharp decrease in plasma steroids levels. Results of in vitro studies on the inhibition of pejerrey gonad aromatase expression by high temperature corroborate that ovary functions are directly disrupted by high temperature independently of the brain-pituitary axis. For the reproductive responses obtained in laboratory fish studies, it is plausible to predict changes in the timing and magnitude of reproductive activity or even the total failure of spawning season may occur in warm years, reducing annual reproductive output and affecting future populations.}, }
@article {pmid23497752, year = {2013}, author = {Boylan, S and Syrett, K and Colagiuri, R}, title = {Role of law at the non-communicable diseases-climate change interface: considerations for planetary and population health policy.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {127}, number = {6}, pages = {579-581}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2013.01.022}, pmid = {23497752}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; *Global Health ; Health Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Lung Diseases/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Neoplasms/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid23497420, year = {2013}, author = {Bai, L and Morton, LC and Liu, Q}, title = {Climate change and mosquito-borne diseases in China: a review.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {10}, pmid = {23497420}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {Animals ; China/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Culicidae ; Dengue/*epidemiology/transmission ; Encephalitis, Japanese/*epidemiology/transmission ; Humans ; Incidence ; Insect Vectors ; Malaria/*epidemiology/transmission ; Prevalence ; Risk ; }, abstract = {China has experienced noticeable changes in climate over the past 100 years and the potential impact climate change has on transmission of mosquito-borne infectious diseases poses a risk to Chinese populations. The aims of this paper are to summarize what is known about the impact of climate change on the incidence and prevalence of malaria, dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis in China and to provide important information and direction for adaptation policy making. Fifty-five papers met the inclusion criteria for this study. Examination of these studies indicates that variability in temperature, precipitation, wind, and extreme weather events is linked to transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in some regions of China. However, study findings are inconsistent across geographical locations and this requires strengthening current evidence for timely development of adaptive options. After synthesis of available information we make several key adaptation recommendations including: improving current surveillance and monitoring systems; concentrating adaptation strategies and policies on vulnerable communities; strengthening adaptive capacity of public health systems; developing multidisciplinary approaches sustained by an new mechanism of inter-sectional coordination; and increasing awareness and mobilization of the general public.}, }
@article {pmid23496814, year = {2013}, author = {Cardwell, FS and Elliott, SJ}, title = {Making the links: do we connect climate change with health? A qualitative case study from Canada.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {13}, number = {}, pages = {208}, pmid = {23496814}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Ontario ; *Public Opinion ; Qualitative Research ; Risk Assessment ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Typically framed as an environmental issue, some suggest this view has contributed to public ambivalence and hence a lack of public engagement. The lack of understanding of climate change as a significant environmental health risk on the part of the lay public represents a significant barrier to behaviour change. We therefore need to think about reframing the impact of climate change from an environmental to a health issue. This paper builds on calls for increased understanding of the public's views of human health risks associated with climate change, focusing on facilitators and barriers to behaviour change.<br><br>METHODS: Semi-structured in-depth interviews (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;22) with residents of the Golden Horseshoe region of Southern Ontario were conducted between August 2010 and January 2011. Topics included individual and community health, climate change, and facilitators and barriers to behaviour change.<br><br>RESULTS: Few participants recognized the role of the environment in the context of either individual and community health. When asked about health concerns specific to their community, however, environmental issues were mentioned frequently. Health effects as possible impacts of global environmental change were mentioned by 77% of participants when prompted, but this link was not described in great detail or within the context of impacting their communities or themselves. Participants were willing to act in environmentally friendly ways, and possible incentives to undertake behaviour change such as decreasing cost were described. Health co-benefits were not identified as incentives to engaging in mitigative or adaptive behaviours.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results support recent calls for reframing the impact of climate change from an environmental to a public health issue in order to increase public engagement in adaptive and mitigative behaviour change. While previous research has touched on public awareness of the human health risks of climate change, we have further explored the attitude-action link through the examination of facilitators and barriers to behaviour change.}, }
@article {pmid23496796, year = {2013}, author = {Mardulyn, P and Goffredo, M and Conte, A and Hendrickx, G and Meiswinkel, R and Balenghien, T and Sghaier, S and Lohr, Y and Gilbert, M}, title = {Climate change and the spread of vector-borne diseases: using approximate Bayesian computation to compare invasion scenarios for the bluetongue virus vector Culicoides imicola in Italy.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {9}, pages = {2456-2466}, doi = {10.1111/mec.12264}, pmid = {23496796}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bayes Theorem ; Bluetongue virus ; Ceratopogonidae/*genetics/virology ; *Climate Change ; Computational Biology ; France/epidemiology ; Genetic Loci ; Genetic Markers ; Genetic Variation ; Genotype ; Insect Vectors/*genetics/virology ; Italy/epidemiology ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Sheep ; }, abstract = {Bluetongue (BT) is a commonly cited example of a disease with a distribution believed to have recently expanded in response to global warming. The BT virus is transmitted to ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides, and it has been hypothesized that the emergence of BT in Mediterranean Europe during the last two decades is a consequence of the recent colonization of the region by Culicoides imicola and linked to climate change. To better understand the mechanism responsible for the northward spread of BT, we tested the hypothesis of a recent colonization of Italy by C. imicola, by obtaining samples from more than 60 localities across Italy, Corsica, Southern France, and Northern Africa (the hypothesized source point for the recent invasion of C. imicola), and by genotyping them with 10 newly identified microsatellite loci. The patterns of genetic variation within and among the sampled populations were characterized and used in a rigorous approximate Bayesian computation framework to compare three competing historical hypotheses related to the arrival and establishment of C. imicola in Italy. The hypothesis of an ancient presence of the insect vector was strongly favoured by this analysis, with an associated P ≥ 99%, suggesting that causes other than the northward range expansion of C. imicola may have supported the emergence of BT in southern Europe. Overall, this study illustrates the potential of molecular genetic markers for exploring the assumed link between climate change and the spread of diseases.}, }
@article {pmid23496675, year = {2013}, author = {Krehenwinkel, H and Tautz, D}, title = {Northern range expansion of European populations of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi is associated with global warming-correlated genetic admixture and population-specific temperature adaptations.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {8}, pages = {2232-2248}, doi = {10.1111/mec.12223}, pmid = {23496675}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Genetic Variation ; Global Warming ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Phylogeny ; *Phylogeography ; Population/*genetics ; Population Dynamics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Spiders/*genetics/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Poleward range expansions are observed for an increasing number of species, which may be an effect of global warming during the past decades. However, it is still not clear in how far these expansions reflect simple geographical shifts of species ranges, or whether new genetic adaptations play a role as well. Here, we analyse the expansion of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi into Northern Europe during the last century. We have used a range-wide sampling of contemporary populations and historical specimens from museums to trace the phylogeography and genetic changes associated with the range shift. Based on the analysis of mitochondrial, microsatellite and SNP markers, we observe a higher level of genetic diversity in the expanding populations, apparently due to admixture of formerly isolated lineages. Using reciprocal transplant experiments for testing overwintering tolerance, as well as temperature preference and tolerance tests in the laboratory, we find that the invading spiders have possibly shifted their temperature niche. This may be a key adaptation for survival in Northern latitudes. The museum samples allow a reconstruction of the invasion's genetic history. A first, small-scale range shift started around 1930, in parallel with the onset of global warming. A more massive invasion of Northern Europe associated with genetic admixture and morphological changes occurred in later decades. We suggest that the latter range expansion into far Northern latitudes may be a consequence of the admixture that provided the genetic material for adaptations to new environmental regimes. Hence, global warming could have facilitated the initial admixture of populations and this resulted in genetic lineages with new habitat preferences.}, }
@article {pmid23495637, year = {2013}, author = {Behrman, KD and Kiniry, JR and Winchell, M and Juenger, TE and Keitt, TH}, title = {Spatial forecasting of switchgrass productivity under current and future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {73-85}, doi = {10.1890/12-0436.1}, pmid = {23495637}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Models, Biological ; Panicum/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Evaluating the potential of alternative energy crops across large geographic regions, as well as over time, is a necessary component to determining if biofuel production is feasible and sustainable in the face of growing production demands and climatic change. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a native perennial herbaceous grass, is a promising candidate for cellulosic feedstock production. In this study, current and future (from 2080 to 2090) productivity is estimated across the central and eastern United States using ALMANAC, a mechanistic model that simulates plant growth over time. The ALMANAC model was parameterized for representative ecotypes of switchgrass. Our results indicate substantial variation in switchgrass productivity both within regions and over time. States along the Gulf Coast, southern Atlantic Coast, and in the East North Central Midwest have the highest current biomass potential. However, these areas also contain critical wetland habitat necessary for the maintenance of biodiversity and agricultural lands necessary for food production. The southern United States is predicted to have the largest decrease in future biomass production. The Great Plains are expected to experience large increases in productivity by 2080-2090 due to climate change. In general, regions where future temperature and precipitation are predicted to increase are also where larger future biomass production is expected. In contrast, regions that show a future decrease in precipitation are associated with smaller future biomass production. Switchgrass appears to be a promising biofuel crop for the central and eastern United States, with local biomass predicted to be high (>10 Mg/ha) for approximately 50% of the area studied for each climate scenario. In order to minimize land conversion and loss of biodiversity, areas that currently have and maintain high productivity under climate change should be targeted for their long-term growth potential.}, }
@article {pmid23495633, year = {2013}, author = {Terrier, A and Girardin, MP and Périé, C and Legendre, P and Bergeron, Y}, title = {Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {21-35}, doi = {10.1890/12-0425.1}, pmid = {23495633}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Fires ; Models, Biological ; Quebec ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; Trees/*classification ; }, abstract = {There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23488703, year = {2013}, author = {Thorpe, C and Jacobson, B}, title = {Life politics, nature and the state: Giddens' sociological theory and The Politics of Climate Change.}, journal = {The British journal of sociology}, volume = {64}, number = {1}, pages = {99-122}, doi = {10.1111/1468-4446.12008}, pmid = {23488703}, issn = {1468-4446}, mesh = {Capitalism ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecology ; Humans ; Industry ; International Cooperation ; *Life Style ; *Nature ; Policy Making ; *Politics ; Social Change ; Social Values ; }, abstract = {Anthony Giddens' The Politics of Climate Change represents a significant shift in the way in which he addresses ecological politics. In this book, he rejects the relevance of environmentalism and demarcates climate-change policy from life politics. Giddens addresses climate change in the technocratic mode of simple rather than reflexive modernization. However, Giddens' earlier sociological theory provides the basis for a more reflexive understanding of climate change. Climate change instantiates how, in high modernity, the existential contradiction of the human relationship with nature returns in new form, expressed in life politics and entangled with the structural contradictions of the capitalist state. The interlinking of existential and structural contradiction is manifested in the tension between life politics and the capitalist nation-state. This tension is key for understanding the failures so far of policy responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23481091, year = {2013}, author = {Rylander, C and Odland, J&#xd8; and Sandanger, TM}, title = {Climate change and the potential effects on maternal and pregnancy outcomes: an assessment of the most vulnerable--the mother, fetus, and newborn child.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {19538}, pmid = {23481091}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Female ; Fetus/metabolism ; Humans ; Infant Mortality ; Infant, Newborn ; Maternal Mortality ; Maternal Welfare ; Postnatal Care ; Pregnancy ; *Pregnancy Outcome ; Prenatal Care ; }, abstract = {In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a large amount of evidence about global warming and the impact of human activities on global climate change. The Lancet Commission have identified a number of ways in which climate change can influence human health: lack of food and safe drinking water, poor sanitation, population migration, changing disease patterns and morbidity, more frequent extreme weather events, and lack of shelter. Pregnant women, the developing fetus, and young children are considered the most vulnerable members of our species and are already marginalized in many countries. Therefore, they may have increased sensitivity to the effects of climate change. Published literature in the fields of climate change, human health, tropical diseases, and direct heat exposure were assessed through the regular search engines. This article demonstrates that climate change will increase the risk of infant and maternal mortality, birth complications, and poorer reproductive health, especially in tropical, developing countries. Thus, climate change will have a substantial impact on the health and survival of the next generation among already challenged populations. There is limited knowledge regarding which regions will be most heavily affected. Research efforts are therefore required to identify the most vulnerable populations, fill knowledge gaps, and coordinate efforts to reduce negative health consequences. The effects of malnutrition, infectious diseases, environmental problems, and direct heat exposure on maternal health outcomes will lead to severe health risks for mothers and children. Increased focus on antenatal care is recommended to prevent worsening maternal health and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Interventions to reduce the negative health impacts caused by climate change are also crucial. Every effort should be made to develop and maintain good antenatal care during extreme life conditions as a result of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23479861, year = {2012}, author = {Yang, G and Shu, LF and Di, XY}, title = {[Prediction on the changes of forest fire danger rating in Great Xing'an Mountain region of Northeast China in the 21st century under effects of climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {3236-3242}, pmid = {23479861}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Fires/*prevention &amp; control ; *Forecasting ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Based on the A2a and B2a climatic scenarios for both the baseline period (1961-1990) and the future scenario periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) from the Hadley Centre's General Circulation, and by using Delta method, WGEN downscaling methods, and Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, this paper classified the forest fire dangers in Great Xing' an Mountains region of Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China, predicted the changes of the forest fire danger rating in the period 2010-2099 relative to baseline period (1961-1990), and analyzed the uncertainty of the long-term prediction of forest fire danger rating. It was predicted that under the background of climate warming, the mean annual days of extremely high, very high, and medium forest dangers in study region in the 21st century all showed an increasing trend, while the mean annual days of high and low forest dangers were in adverse. Relative to the baseline period of 1961-1990, the mean annual days of extremely high and very high forest dangers in the 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 under the scenarios of SRES A2a and B2a would be increased by 43 and 36, and 62 and 61, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid23479860, year = {2012}, author = {Li, XN and He, HS and Wu, ZW and Liang, Y}, title = {[Responses of boreal forest landscape in northern Great Xing'an Mountains of Northeast China to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {3227-3235}, pmid = {23479860}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fires ; Forestry/methods ; Trees/classification/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {With the combination of forest landscape model (LANDIS) and forest gap model (LINKAGES), this paper simulated the effects of climate change on the boreal forest landscape in the Great Xing'an Mountains, and compared the direct effects of climate change and the effects of climate warming-induced fires on the forest landscape. The results showed that under the current climate conditions and fire disturbances, the forest landscape in the study area could maintain its dynamic balance, and Larix gmelinii was still the dominant tree species. Under the future climate and fire disturbances scenario, the distribution area of L. gmelinii and Pinus pumila would be decreased, while that of Betula platyphylla, Populus davidiana, Populus suaveolens, Chosenia arbutifolia, and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica would be increased, and the forest fragmentation and forest diversity would have an increase. The changes of the forest landscape lagged behind climate change. Climate warming would increase the growth of most tree species except L. gmelinii, while the increased fires would increase the distribution area of P. davidiana, P. suaveolens, and C. arbutifolia and decrease the distribution area of L. gmelinii, P. sylvestris var. mongolica, and P. pumila. The effects of climate warming-induced fires on the forest landscape were almost equal to the direct effects of climate change, and aggravated the direct effects of climate change on forest composition, forest landscape fragmentation, and forest landscape diversity.}, }
@article {pmid23479594, year = {2013}, author = {Torjesen, I}, title = {Antimicrobial resistance presents an "apocalyptic" threat similar to that of climate change, CMO warns.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {346}, number = {}, pages = {f1597}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.f1597}, pmid = {23479594}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Anti-Bacterial Agents/administration &amp; dosage/*adverse effects ; Climate Change ; Clostridioides difficile/drug effects/isolation &amp; purification ; *Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; Drug Utilization/*standards ; Escherichia coli/drug effects/isolation &amp; purification ; Humans ; Klebsiella/drug effects/isolation &amp; purification ; Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus/drug effects/isolation &amp; purification ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid23472299, year = {2013}, author = {Mu, Y and Mu, X}, title = {Energy conservation in the earth's crust and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {150-160}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2012.739501}, pmid = {23472299}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Earth, Planet ; Energy Transfer ; Fossil Fuels/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Among various matters which make up the earth's crust, the thermal conductivity of coal, oil, and oil-gas, which are formed over a long period of geological time, is extremely low. This is significant to prevent transferring the internal heat of the earth to the thermal insulation of the surface, cooling the surface of the earth, stimulating biological evolution, and maintaining natural ecological balance as well. Fossil energy is thermal insulating layer in the earth's crust. Just like the function of the thermal isolation of subcutaneous fatty tissue under the dermis of human skin, it keeps the internal heat within the organism so it won't be transferred to the skin's surface and be lost maintaining body temperature at low temperatures. Coal, oil, oil-gas, and fat belong to the same hydrocarbons, and the functions of their thermal insulation are exactly the same. That is to say, coal, oil, and oil-gas are just like the earth's "subcutaneous fatty tissue" and objectively formed the insulation protection on earth's surface. This paper argues that the human large-scale extraction of fossil energy leads to damage of the earth's crust heat-resistant sealing, increasing terrestrial heat flow, or the heat flow as it is called, transferring the internal heat of the earth to Earth's surface excessively, and causing geotemperature and sea temperature to rise, thus giving rise to global warming. The reason for climate warming is not due to the expansion of greenhouse gases but to the wide exploitation of fossil energy, which destroyed the heat insulation of the earth's crust, making more heat from the interior of the earth be released to the atmosphere. Based on the energy conservation principle, the measurement of the increase of the average global temperature that was caused by the increase of terrestrial heat flow since the Industrial Revolution is consistent with practical data.<br><br>IMPLICATIONS: This paper illustrates "pathogenesis" of climate change using medical knowledge. The mathematical verification is based on the principle of energy conservation. The central idea or clou in this paper is that fossil energy is a thermal insulating layer in the earth's crust, the thermal insulating layer was destroyed after human large-scale mining of fossil energy, and the internal heat of the earth was excessively released to the surface so as to cause climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23472102, year = {2013}, author = {Chaplin-Kramer, R and George, MR}, title = {Effects of climate change on range forage production in the San Francisco Bay Area.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {e57723}, pmid = {23472102}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Feed ; Animals ; Bays ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Geography ; Regression Analysis ; Reproducibility of Results ; San Francisco ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA is a highly heterogeneous region in climate, topography, and habitats, as well as in its political and economic interests. Successful conservation strategies must consider various current and future competing demands for the land, and should pay special attention to livestock grazing, the dominant non-urban land-use. The main objective of this study was to predict changes in rangeland forage production in response to changes in temperature and precipitation projected by downscaled output from global climate models. Daily temperature and precipitation data generated by four climate models were used as input variables for an existing rangeland forage production model (linear regression) for California's annual rangelands and projected on 244 12 km x 12 km grid cells for eight Bay Area counties. Climate model projections suggest that forage production in Bay Area rangelands may be enhanced by future conditions in most years, at least in terms of peak standing crop. However, the timing of production is as important as its peak, and altered precipitation patterns could mean delayed germination, resulting in shorter growing seasons and longer periods of inadequate forage quality. An increase in the frequency of extremely dry years also increases the uncertainty of forage availability. These shifts in forage production will affect the economic viability and conservation strategies for rangelands in the San Francisco Bay Area.}, }
@article {pmid23471678, year = {2013}, author = {Harker-Schuch, I and Bugge-Henriksen, C}, title = {Opinions and knowledge about climate change science in high school students.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {42}, number = {6}, pages = {755-766}, pmid = {23471678}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Female ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Male ; *Students ; }, abstract = {This study investigates the influence of knowledge on opinions about climate change in the emerging adults' age group (16-17 years). Furthermore, the effects of a lecture in climate change science on knowledge and opinions were assessed. A survey was conducted in Austria and Denmark on 188 students in national and international schools before and after a lecture in climate change science. The results show that knowledge about climate change science significantly affects opinions about climate change. Students with a higher number of correct answers are more likely to have the opinion that humans are causing climate change and that both individuals and governments are responsible for addressing climate change. The lecture in climate change science significantly improved knowledge development but did not affect opinions. Knowledge was improved by 11 % after the lecture. However, the percentage of correct answers was still below 60 % indicating an urgent need for improving climate change science education.}, }
@article {pmid23467649, year = {2013}, author = {Boeye, J and Travis, JM and Stoks, R and Bonte, D}, title = {More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {353-364}, pmid = {23467649}, issn = {1752-4571}, abstract = {Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23467519, year = {2013}, author = {Hill, J}, title = {Does public health really have a role in climate change.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {133}, number = {2}, pages = {76}, doi = {10.1177/1757913913476620}, pmid = {23467519}, issn = {1757-9139}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid23467191, year = {2013}, author = {Oney, B and Reineking, B and O'Neill, G and Kreyling, J}, title = {Intraspecific variation buffers projected climate change impacts on Pinus contorta.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {437-449}, pmid = {23467191}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an important tool to assess the impact of global environmental change. Many species exhibit ecologically relevant intraspecific variation, and few studies have analyzed its relevance for SDM. Here, we compared three SDM techniques for the highly variable species Pinus contorta. First, applying a conventional SDM approach, we used MaxEnt to model the subject as a single species (species model), based on presence-absence observations. Second, we used MaxEnt to model each of the three most prevalent subspecies independently and combined their projected distributions (subspecies model). Finally, we used a universal growth transfer function (UTF), an approach to incorporate intraspecific variation utilizing provenance trial tree growth data. Different model approaches performed similarly when predicting current distributions. MaxEnt model discrimination was greater (AUC - species model: 0.94, subspecies model: 0.95, UTF: 0.89), but the UTF was better calibrated (slope and bias - species model: 1.31 and -0.58, subspecies model: 1.44 and -0.43, UTF: 1.01 and 0.04, respectively). Contrastingly, for future climatic conditions, projections of lodgepole pine habitat suitability diverged. In particular, when the species' intraspecific variability was acknowledged, the species was projected to better tolerate climatic change as related to suitable habitat without migration (subspecies model: 26% habitat loss or UTF: 24% habitat loss vs. species model: 60% habitat loss), and given unlimited migration may increase amount of suitable habitat (subspecies model: 8% habitat gain or UTF: 12% habitat gain vs. species model: 51% habitat loss) in the climatic period 2070-2100 (SRES A2 scenario, HADCM3). We conclude that models derived from within-species data produce different and better projections, and coincide with ecological theory. Furthermore, we conclude that intraspecific variation may buffer against adverse effects of climate change. A key future research challenge lies in assessing the extent to which species can utilize intraspecific variation under rapid environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid23467178, year = {2013}, author = {Luo, Y and Ficklin, DL and Liu, X and Zhang, M}, title = {Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality with a watershed modeling approach.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {450-451}, number = {}, pages = {72-82}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.02.004}, pmid = {23467178}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {California ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Soil/standards ; Water Movements ; Water Quality/*standards ; Water Supply/*standards ; }, abstract = {The assessment of hydrologic responses to climate change is required in watershed management and planning to protect water resources and environmental quality. This study is designed to evaluate and enhance watershed modeling approach in characterizing climate change impacts on water supply and ecosystem stressors. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as a base model, and improved for the CO2 dependence of potential evapotranspiration and stream temperature prediction. The updated model was applied to quantify the impacts of projected 21st century climate change in the northern Coastal Ranges and western Sierra Nevada, which are important water source areas and aquatic habitats of California. Evapotranspiration response to CO2 concentration varied with vegetation type. For the forest-dominated watersheds in this study, only moderate (1-3%) reductions on evapotranspiration were predicted by solely elevating CO2 concentration under emission scenarios A2 and B1. Modeling results suggested increases in annual average stream temperature proportional to the projected increases in air temperature. Although no temporal trend was confirmed for annual precipitation in California, increases of precipitation and streamflow during winter months and decreases in summers were predicted. Decreased streamflow during summertime, together with the higher projected air temperature in summer than in winter, would increase stream temperature during those months and result in unfavorable conditions for cold-water species. Compared to the present-day conditions, 30-60 more days per year were predicted with average stream temperature >20°C during 2090s. Overall, the hydrologic cycle and water quality of headwater drainage basins of California, especially their seasonality, are very sensitive to projected climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23467071, year = {2013}, author = {Cockrem, JF}, title = {Corticosterone responses and personality in birds: Individual variation and the ability to cope with environmental changes due to climate change.}, journal = {General and comparative endocrinology}, volume = {190}, number = {}, pages = {156-163}, doi = {10.1016/j.ygcen.2013.02.021}, pmid = {23467071}, issn = {1095-6840}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; Birds/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Corticosterone/*metabolism ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Birds can respond to an internal or external stimulus with activation of the HPA axis and secretion of corticosterone. There is considerable individual variation in corticosterone responses, and individual responses can be very different from the mean response for a group of birds. Corticosterone responses and behavioural responses to environmental stimuli are determined by individual characteristics called personality. It is proposed that birds with low corticosterone responses and proactive personalities are likely to be more successful (have greater fitness) in constant or predictable conditions, whilst birds with reactive personalities and high corticosterone responses will be more successful in changing or unpredictable conditions. The relationship between corticosterone responses and fitness thus depends on the prevailing environmental conditions, so birds with either low or high corticosterone responses can have the greatest fitness and be most successful, but in different situations. It is also proposed that birds with reactive personalities and high corticosterone responses will be better able to cope with environmental changes due to climate change than birds with proactive personalities and relatively low corticosterone responses. Phenotypic plasticity in corticosterone responses can be quantified using a reaction norm approach, and reaction norms can be used to determine the degree of plasticity in corticosterone responses of individual birds, and mean levels of plasticity in responses of species of birds. Individual corticosterone responses and personality, and reaction norms for corticosterone responses, can in future be used to predict the ability of birds to cope with environmental changes due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23460901, year = {2013}, author = {Liu, J and Folberth, C and Yang, H and Röckström, J and Abbaspour, K and Zehnder, AJ}, title = {A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {e57750}, pmid = {23460901}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; Uncertainty ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.}, }
@article {pmid23457537, year = {2013}, author = {Danise, S and Twitchett, RJ and Little, CT and Clémence, ME}, title = {The impact of global warming and anoxia on marine benthic community dynamics: an example from the Toarcian (Early Jurassic).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {e56255}, pmid = {23457537}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; *Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; *Fossils ; Geologic Sediments/analysis ; Global Warming/*history ; History, Ancient ; Oxygen/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The Pliensbachian-Toarcian (Early Jurassic) fossil record is an archive of natural data of benthic community response to global warming and marine long-term hypoxia and anoxia. In the early Toarcian mean temperatures increased by the same order of magnitude as that predicted for the near future; laminated, organic-rich, black shales were deposited in many shallow water epicontinental basins; and a biotic crisis occurred in the marine realm, with the extinction of approximately 5% of families and 26% of genera. High-resolution quantitative abundance data of benthic invertebrates were collected from the Cleveland Basin (North Yorkshire, UK), and analysed with multivariate statistical methods to detect how the fauna responded to environmental changes during the early Toarcian. Twelve biofacies were identified. Their changes through time closely resemble the pattern of faunal degradation and recovery observed in modern habitats affected by anoxia. All four successional stages of community structure recorded in modern studies are recognised in the fossil data (i.e. Stage III: climax; II: transitional; I: pioneer; 0: highly disturbed). Two main faunal turnover events occurred: (i) at the onset of anoxia, with the extinction of most benthic species and the survival of a few adapted to thrive in low-oxygen conditions (Stages I to 0) and (ii) in the recovery, when newly evolved species colonized the re-oxygenated soft sediments and the path of recovery did not retrace of pattern of ecological degradation (Stages I to II). The ordination of samples coupled with sedimentological and palaeotemperature proxy data indicate that the onset of anoxia and the extinction horizon coincide with both a rise in temperature and sea level. Our study of how faunal associations co-vary with long and short term sea level and temperature changes has implications for predicting the long-term effects of "dead zones" in modern oceans.}, }
@article {pmid23452510, year = {2014}, author = {Kim, BI and Blanton, JD and Gilbert, A and Castrodale, L and Hueffer, K and Slate, D and Rupprecht, CE}, title = {A conceptual model for the impact of climate change on fox rabies in Alaska, 1980-2010.}, journal = {Zoonoses and public health}, volume = {61}, number = {1}, pages = {72-80}, pmid = {23452510}, issn = {1863-2378}, support = {TL4 GM118992/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; UL1 GM118991/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; RL5 GM118990/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; P20 RR016466/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; 5P20RR016466-12/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; P20 GM103395/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; P20 GM103395-12/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Alaska/epidemiology ; Animals ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Foxes/*virology ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; Rabies/epidemiology/*veterinary/virology ; Rabies virus/*isolation &amp; purification ; Regression Analysis ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The direct and interactive effects of climate change on host species and infectious disease dynamics are likely to initially manifest\ at latitudinal extremes. As such, Alaska represents a region in the United States for introspection on climate change and disease. Rabies is enzootic among arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) throughout the northern polar region. In Alaska, arctic and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are reservoirs for rabies, with most domestic animal and wildlife cases reported from northern and western coastal Alaska. Based on passive surveillance, a pronounced seasonal trend in rabid foxes occurs in Alaska, with a peak in winter and spring. This study describes climatic factors that may be associated with reported cyclic rabies occurrence. Based upon probabilistic modelling, a stronger seasonal effect in reported fox rabies cases appears at higher latitudes in Alaska, and rabies in arctic foxes appear disproportionately affected by climatic factors in comparison with red foxes. As temperatures continue a warming trend, a decrease in reported rabid arctic foxes may be expected. The overall epidemiology of rabies in Alaska is likely to shift to increased viral transmission among red foxes as the primary reservoir in the region. Information on fox and lemming demographics, in addition to enhanced rabies surveillance among foxes at finer geographic scales, will be critical to develop more comprehensive models for rabies virus transmission in the region.}, }
@article {pmid23451647, year = {2012}, author = {Haq, L}, title = {Megatrends: Part 2 of 3. Feeling the heat of climate change.}, journal = {The Health service journal}, volume = {122}, number = {6331}, pages = {34-35}, pmid = {23451647}, issn = {0952-2271}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Demography/trends ; Social Responsibility ; State Medicine/*organization &amp; administration ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid23447548, year = {2014}, author = {Thornes, JE and Fisher, PA and Rayment-Bishop, T and Smith, C}, title = {Ambulance call-outs and response times in Birmingham and the impact of extreme weather and climate change.}, journal = {Emergency medicine journal : EMJ}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {220-228}, doi = {10.1136/emermed-2012-201817}, pmid = {23447548}, issn = {1472-0213}, mesh = {Ambulances/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate ; England ; Humans ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Although there has been some research on the impact of extreme weather on the number of ambulance call-out incidents, especially heat waves, there has been very little research on the impact of cold weather on ambulance call-outs and response times. In the UK, there is a target response rate of 75% of life threatening incidents (Category A) that must be responded to within 8 min. This paper compares daily air temperature data with ambulance call-out data for Birmingham over a 5-year period (2007-2011). A significant relationship between extreme weather and increased ambulance call-out and response times can clearly be shown. Both hot and cold weather have a negative impact on response times. During the heat wave of August 2003, the number of ambulance call-outs increased by up to a third. In December 2010 (the coldest December for more than 100 years), the response rate fell below 50% for 3 days in a row (18 December-20 December 2010) with a mean response time of 15 min. For every reduction of air temperature by 1°C there was a reduction of 1.3% in performance. Improved weather forecasting and the take up of adaptation measures, such as the use of winter tyres, are suggested for consideration as management tools to improve ambulance response resilience during extreme weather. Also it is suggested that ambulance response times could be used as part of the syndromic surveillance system at the Health Protection Agency.}, }
@article {pmid23445208, year = {2013}, author = {Temunović, M and Frascaria-Lacoste, N and Franjić, J and Satovic, Z and Fernández-Manjarrés, JF}, title = {Identifying refugia from climate change using coupled ecological and genetic data in a transitional Mediterranean-temperate tree species.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {8}, pages = {2128-2142}, doi = {10.1111/mec.12252}, pmid = {23445208}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; *Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Fraxinus/genetics/physiology ; Genetic Variation ; Genotype ; Haplotypes ; Humans ; Mediterranean Region ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Phylogeny ; Population/genetics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {Populations occurring in areas of overlap between the current and future distribution of a species are particularly important because they can represent "refugia from climate change". We coupled ecological and range-wide genetic variation data to detect such areas and to evaluate the impacts of habitat suitability changes on the genetic diversity of the transitional Mediterranean-temperate tree Fraxinus angustifolia. We sampled and genotyped 38 natural populations comprising 1006 individuals from across Europe. We found the highest genetic diversity in western and northern Mediterranean populations, as well as a significant west to east decline in genetic diversity. Areas of potential refugia that correspond to approximately 70% of the suitable habitat may support the persistence of more than 90% of the total number of alleles in the future. Moreover, based on correlations between Bayesian genetic assignment and climate, climate change may favour the westward spread of the Black Sea gene pool in the long term. Overall, our results suggest that the northerly core areas of the current distribution contain the most important part of the genetic variation for this species and may serve as in situ macrorefugia from ongoing climate change. However, rear-edge populations of the southern Mediterranean may be exposed to a potential loss of unique genetic diversity owing to habitat suitability changes unless populations can persist in microrefugia that have facilitated such persistence in the past.}, }
@article {pmid23439814, year = {2013}, author = {Mychaskiw, G and Eger, EI}, title = {A different perspective on anesthetics and climate change.}, journal = {Anesthesia and analgesia}, volume = {116}, number = {3}, pages = {734}, doi = {10.1213/ANE.0b013e318280dfd0}, pmid = {23439814}, issn = {1526-7598}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Anesthesiology/*history ; *Anesthetics, Inhalation ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Medical Waste Disposal/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid23438320, year = {2013}, author = {Thompson, RM and Beardall, J and Beringer, J and Grace, M and Sardina, P}, title = {Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {799-806}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12095}, pmid = {23438320}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Calibration ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; Marine Biology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Research Design/*trends ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments.}, }
@article {pmid23435543, year = {2013}, author = {Mares, D}, title = {Climate change and levels of violence in socially disadvantaged neighborhood groups.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {90}, number = {4}, pages = {768-783}, pmid = {23435543}, issn = {1468-2869}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Female ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Male ; Missouri/epidemiology ; Poverty Areas ; Residence Characteristics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Seasons ; Urban Population/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Violence/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Vulnerable Populations/psychology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The current study examines the link between climate change and neighborhood levels of violence using 20 years of monthly climatic and crime data from St. Louis, MO, USA. St. Louis census tracts are aggregated in neighborhood groups of similar levels of social disadvantage, after which each group is subjected to time series analysis. Findings suggest that neighborhoods with higher levels of social disadvantage are very likely to experience higher levels of violence as a result of anomalously warm temperatures. The 20 % of most disadvantaged neighborhoods in St. Louis, MO, USA are predicted to experience over half of the climate change-related increase in cases of violence. These results provide further evidence that the health impacts of climate change are proportionally higher among populations that are already at high risk and underscore the need to comprehensively address climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23431804, year = {2012}, author = {Yang, G and Shu, LF and Di, XY}, title = {[Change trends of summer fire danger in great Xing' an Mountains forest region of Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China under climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {11}, pages = {3157-3163}, pmid = {23431804}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Fires/prevention &amp; control ; Forecasting ; Seasons ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {By using Delta and WGEN downscaling methods and Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index, this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of summer fire in Great Xing' an Mountains forest region of Heilongjiang Province in 1966-2010, estimated the change trends of the summer fire danger in 2010-2099, compared the differences of the forest fire in summer, spring, and autumn, and proposed the prevention and control strategies of the summer fire based on the fire environment. Under the background of climate warming, the summer forest fire in the region in 2000-2010 showed a high incidence trend. In foreseeable future, the summer forest fire across the region in 2010-2099, as compared to that in the baseline period 1961-1990, would be increased by 34%, and the increment would be obviously greater than that of spring and autumn fire. Relative to that in 1961-1990, the summer fire in 2010-2099 under both SRES A2a and SRES B2a scenarios would have an increasing trend, and, with the lapse of time, the trend would be more evident, and the area with high summer fire would become wider and wider. Under the scenario of SRES A2a, the summer fire by the end of the 21st century would be doubled, as compared to that in 1961-1990, and the area with high summer fire would be across the region. In the characteristics of fire source, attributes of forest fuel, and fire weather conditions, the summer forest fire was different from the spring and autumn forest fire, and thus, the management of fire source and forest fuel load as well as the forest fire forecast (mid-long term forecast in particular) in the region should be strengthened to control the summer forest fire.}, }
@article {pmid23431207, year = {2013}, author = {Leifeld, J and Angers, DA and Chenu, C and Fuhrer, J and Kätterer, T and Powlson, DS}, title = {Organic farming gives no climate change benefit through soil carbon sequestration.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {11}, pages = {E984}, pmid = {23431207}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; *Organic Agriculture ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid23427341, year = {2013}, author = {Gross, M}, title = {Food security in the times of climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {R1-4}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2012.12.018}, pmid = {23427341}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods/trends ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Environmental Exposure ; *Food Supply ; Models, Theoretical ; Occupational Exposure ; Pesticides/toxicity ; }, }
@article {pmid23425561, year = {2013}, author = {Iler, AM and Inouye, DW}, title = {Effects of climate change on mast-flowering cues in a clonal montane herb, Veratrum tenuipetalum (Melanthiaceae).}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {100}, number = {3}, pages = {519-525}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1200491}, pmid = {23425561}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Flowers/*physiology ; Linear Models ; Plant Roots/physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; United States ; Veratrum/*physiology ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climate change threatens to alter the timing and magnitude of abiotic cues that synchronize mast flowering, such as temperature and precipitation. Climate change may therefore alter the frequency of masting, in turn affecting species in the community that use pulsed resources. •<br><br>METHODS: We used 29-yr (1984-2012) records of climate and flowering to investigate proximate flowering cues for the clonal, mast-flowering herb Veratrum tenuipetalum. Because clonal reproduction is tied to flowering in Veratrum, we used a parallel record of ramet abundance to examine the effects of masting on long-term ramet abundance. &#x2022;<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Cool summer temperatures 2 years before flowering were associated with a higher percentage of flowering in Veratrum populations, consistent with its life history. Ramet abundance increased by 9.5% &#xb1; 5.6% on average following mast years compared to an average loss of 0.73% &#xb1; 1.1% in nonmast years, and ramet abundance increased over the time frame of our records. &#x2022;<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Ramet abundance has increased over the time frame of our records mainly because of clonal reproduction in masting years. If summer temperatures continue to increase at our site and Veratrum does not alter its climate thresholds, we predict that masting will become less frequent in this species, with consequent reduction in opportunities for both sexual and clonal reproduction.}, }
@article {pmid23419358, year = {2013}, author = {Kirschbaum, MU and Saggar, S and Tate, KR and Thakur, KP and Giltrap, DL}, title = {Quantifying the climate-change consequences of shifting land use between forest and agriculture.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {465}, number = {}, pages = {314-324}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.01.026}, pmid = {23419358}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Land-use change between forestry and agriculture can cause large net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), and the respective land uses associated with forest and pasture lead to different on-going emission rates of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and different surface albedo. Here, we quantify the overall net radiative forcing and consequent temperature change from specified land-use changes. These different radiative agents cause radiative forcing of different magnitudes and with different time profiles. Carbon emission can be very high when forests are cleared. Upon reforestation, the former carbon stocks can be regained, but the rate of carbon sequestration is much slower than the rate of carbon loss from deforestation. A production forest may undergo repeated harvest and regrowth cycles, each involving periods of C emission and release. Agricultural land, especially grazed pastures, have much higher N2O emissions than forests because of their generally higher nitrogen status that can be further enhanced through intensification of the nitrogen cycle by animal excreta. Because of its longevity in the atmosphere, N2O concentrations build up nearly linearly over many decades. CH4 emissions can be very high from ruminant animals grazing on pastures. Because of its short atmospheric longevity, the CH4 concentration from a converted pasture accumulates for only a few decades before reaching a new equilibrium when emission of newly produced CH4 is balanced by the oxidation of previously emitted CH4. Albedo changes generally have the opposite radiative forcing from those of the GHGs and partly negate their radiative forcing. Overall and averaged over 100 years, CO2 is typically responsible for 50% of radiative forcing and CH4 and N2O for 25% each. Albedo changes can negate the radiative forcing by the three greenhouse gases by 20-25%.}, }
@article {pmid23418713, year = {2013}, author = {Kiang, K}, title = {Predicted increase in need for comprehensive refugee/migrant health services as climate change provokes further population displacement.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {49}, number = {2}, pages = {159-160}, doi = {10.1111/jpc.12075}, pmid = {23418713}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Ambulatory Care Facilities/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Female ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Male ; Refugees/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid23411760, year = {2013}, author = {Pradhan, B and Shrestha, S and Shrestha, R and Pradhanang, S and Kayastha, B and Pradhan, P}, title = {Assessing climate change and heat stress responses in the Tarai region of Nepal.}, journal = {Industrial health}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {101-112}, doi = {10.2486/indhealth.2012-0166}, pmid = {23411760}, issn = {1880-8026}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Clothing ; Female ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Male ; Nepal/epidemiology ; Occupational Diseases/*epidemiology ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {This paper intends to analyse responses of the working people to heat stress in Nepal's Tarai region. Here, the heat stress responses refer to the working environments- indoor and outdoor settings, prevailing diseases, and adaptive measures by the workers. Data were gathered from the sample households by using household survey, observation, and informal discussions. Environmental conditions in terms of heat exposure in the working areas have been measured with heat index, humidity index, and WBGT, based on the HOTHAPS approach. The findings are that: the average temperature during the peak hot months reached to over 39°C and the environmental conditions in the selected factories during the hot summer months were too hot to the workers to work continuously during the day, where there was inadequacy of facilities to combat against the hot. Males were more exposed than females to the heat due to heavy type of works in outdoor settings. Few workers found to have adapted coping measures such as shift in working time, wearing thin cotton clothes, etc but they were inadequate against the heat stress. More quantitative measurements of workers' health effects and productivity loss will be of interest for future works.}, }
@article {pmid23411759, year = {2013}, author = {Parsons, K}, title = {Occupational health impacts of climate change: current and future ISO standards for the assessment of heat stress.}, journal = {Industrial health}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {86-100}, doi = {10.2486/indhealth.2012-0165}, pmid = {23411759}, issn = {1880-8026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Clothing/standards ; Environmental Monitoring/*standards ; Ergonomics/*standards ; Heat Stress Disorders/*etiology ; Humans ; Meteorological Concepts ; Monitoring, Physiologic/*standards ; Occupational Diseases/*etiology ; Occupational Exposure/*adverse effects ; }, abstract = {The current system of International Standards (ISO) is assessed to consider whether standards are fit for purpose for the future in the context of climate change. ISO 7243, ISO 7933 and ISO 9886 provide the current ISO system for the assessment of heat stress. These involve a simple monitoring index, an analytical approach and physiological monitoring, respectively. The system relies on accurate measurement of the thermal conditions experienced by the worker (ISO 7726); and estimations of metabolic heat production due to work (ISO 8996) and the thermal properties of clothing (ISO 9920). As well as standards for heat stress assessment, the full range of ISO standards and the physical environment is listed as well as current work and proposed standards. A particular 'gap' in anticipating requirements for ISO standards in the future is the link between meteorological data and ISO standards. This is important for predicting the global consequences of a changing climate and anticipating potential impacts on occupational health across countries and cultures.}, }
@article {pmid23411758, year = {2013}, author = {Adam-Poupart, A and Labrèche, F and Smargiassi, A and Duguay, P and Busque, MA and Gagné, C and Rintamäki, H and Kjellstrom, T and Zayed, J}, title = {Climate change and Occupational Health and Safety in a temperate climate: potential impacts and research priorities in Quebec, Canada.}, journal = {Industrial health}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {68-78}, doi = {10.2486/indhealth.2012-0100}, pmid = {23411758}, issn = {1880-8026}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Consensus ; Delphi Technique ; Humans ; *Occupational Health ; Quebec ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; Zoonoses/complications ; }, abstract = {The potential impacts of climate change (CC) on Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) have been studied a little in tropical countries, while they received no attention in northern industrialized countries with a temperate climate. This work aimed to establish an overview of the potential links between CC and OHS in those countries and to determine research priorities for Quebec, Canada. A narrative review of the scientific literature (2005-2010) was presented to a working group of international and national experts and stakeholders during a workshop held in 2010. The working group was invited to identify knowledge gaps, and a modified Delphi method helped prioritize research avenues. This process highlighted five categories of hazards that are likely to impact OHS in northern industrialized countries: heat waves/increased temperatures, air pollutants, UV radiation, extreme weather events, vector-borne/zoonotic diseases. These hazards will affect working activities related to natural resources (i.e. agriculture, fishing and forestry) and may influence the socioeconomic context (built environment and green industries), thus indirectly modifying OHS. From this consensus approach, three categories of research were identified: 1) Knowledge acquisition on hazards, target populations and methods of adaptation; 2) Surveillance of diseases/accidents/occupational hazards; and 3) Development of new occupational adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid23411752, year = {2013}, author = {Lundgren, K and Kuklane, K and Gao, C and Holmér, I}, title = {Effects of heat stress on working populations when facing climate change.}, journal = {Industrial health}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {3-15}, doi = {10.2486/indhealth.2012-0089}, pmid = {23411752}, issn = {1880-8026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Heat Stress Disorders/*etiology ; Humans ; Occupational Diseases/*etiology ; *Workplace ; }, abstract = {It is accepted that the earth's climate is changing in an accelerating pace, with already documented implications for human health and the environment. This literature review provides an overview of existing research findings about the effects of heat stress on the working population in relation to climate change. In the light of climate change adaptation, the purpose of the literature review was to explore recent and previous research into the impacts of heat stress on humans in an occupational setting. Heat stress in the workplace has been researched extensively in the past however, in the contemporary context of climate change, information is lacking on its extent and implications. The main factors found to exacerbate heat stress in the current and future workplace are the urban 'heat island effect', physical work, individual differences, and the developing country context where technological fixes are often not applicable. There is also a lack of information on the effects on vulnerable groups such as elderly people and pregnant women. As increasing temperatures reduce work productivity, world economic productivity could be condensed, affecting developing countries in the tropical climate zone disproportionately. Future research is needed taking an interdisciplinary approach, including social, economic, environmental and technical aspects.}, }
@article {pmid23411751, year = {2013}, author = {Kjellstrom, T and Sawada, S and Bernard, TE and Parsons, K and Rintamäki, H and Holmér, I}, title = {Climate change and occupational heat problems.}, journal = {Industrial health}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.2486/indhealth.ms5101ed}, pmid = {23411751}, issn = {1880-8026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Heat Stress Disorders/*etiology ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Occupational Diseases/*etiology ; Occupational Exposure/*adverse effects ; *Workplace ; }, }
@article {pmid23410037, year = {2013}, author = {Nuñez, TA and Lawler, JJ and McRae, BH and Pierce, DJ and Krosby, MB and Kavanagh, DM and Singleton, PH and Tewksbury, JJ}, title = {Connectivity planning to address climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {407-416}, doi = {10.1111/cobi.12014}, pmid = {23410037}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animal Distribution ; Animals ; British Columbia ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Northwestern United States ; Plant Dispersal ; }, abstract = {As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present-day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost-distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land-use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resulting maps identified a network of patches and corridors across which species may move as climates change. The corridors are likely to be robust to uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of future climate change because they are derived from gradients and land-use patterns. The assumptions we applied in our model simplified the stability of temperature gradients and species responses to climate change and land use, but the model is flexible enough to be tailored to specific regions by incorporating other climate variables or movement costs. When used at appropriate resolutions, our approach may be of value to local, regional, and continental conservation initiatives seeking to promote species movements in a changing climate. Planificación de Conectividad para Atender el Cambio Climático.}, }
@article {pmid23409876, year = {2013}, author = {Hernández, D}, title = {Energy insecurity: a framework for understanding energy, the built environment, and health among vulnerable populations in the context of climate change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {103}, number = {4}, pages = {e32-4}, pmid = {23409876}, issn = {1541-0048}, support = {R21 ES024108/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Energy-Generating Resources ; *Environment ; Environment Design ; Facility Design and Construction ; Food Supply ; Housing ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Urban Health ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, }
@article {pmid23408100, year = {2012}, author = {Aström, C and Rocklöv, J and Hales, S and Béguin, A and Louis, V and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {448-454}, pmid = {23408100}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Aedes/growth &amp; development ; Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology ; *Economic Development ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development ; Models, Theoretical ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.}, }
@article {pmid23407413, year = {2013}, author = {Colagiuri, R}, title = {Diabetes and climate change: different drums--same orchestra.}, journal = {Journal of public health policy}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {165-169}, doi = {10.1057/jphp.2012.58}, pmid = {23407413}, issn = {1745-655X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/*etiology ; Diet/adverse effects ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Urban Population ; }, }
@article {pmid23407083, year = {2013}, author = {Balato, N and Ayala, F and Megna, M and Balato, A and Patruno, C}, title = {Climate change and skin.}, journal = {Giornale italiano di dermatologia e venereologia : organo ufficiale, Societa italiana di dermatologia e sifilografia}, volume = {148}, number = {1}, pages = {135-146}, pmid = {23407083}, issn = {0392-0488}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors ; Humans ; Skin Diseases/*etiology ; Skin Diseases, Infectious/etiology ; Skin Neoplasms/etiology ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many dermatoses.}, }
@article {pmid23407064, year = {2013}, author = {Huang, C and Barnett, AG and Xu, Z and Chu, C and Wang, X and Turner, LR and Tong, S}, title = {Managing the health effects of temperature in response to climate change: challenges ahead.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {121}, number = {4}, pages = {415-419}, pmid = {23407064}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Policy/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Public Health/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*standards ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although many studies have shown that high temperatures are associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity, there has been little research on managing the process of planned adaptation to alleviate the health effects of heat events and climate change. In particular, economic evaluation of public health adaptation strategies has been largely absent from both the scientific literature and public policy discussion.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We examined how public health organizations should implement adaptation strategies and, second, how to improve the evidence base required to make an economic case for policies that will protect the public's health from heat events and climate change.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Public health adaptation strategies to cope with heat events and climate change fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health risks. Strategies require a range of actions, including timely public health and medical advice, improvements to housing and urban planning, early warning systems, and assurance that health care and social systems are ready to act. Some of these actions are costly, and given scarce financial resources the implementation should be based on the cost-effectiveness analysis. Therefore, research is required not only on the temperature-related health costs, but also on the costs and benefits of adaptation options. The scientific community must ensure that the health co-benefits of climate change policies are recognized, understood, and quantified.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The integration of climate change adaptation into current public health practice is needed to ensure the adaptation strategies increase future resilience. The economic evaluation of temperature-related health costs and public health adaptation strategies are particularly important for policy decisions.}, }
@article {pmid23405068, year = {2013}, author = {Kujala, H and Moilanen, A and Araújo, MB and Cabeza, M}, title = {Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {e53315}, pmid = {23405068}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Decision Making ; Europe ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distributions that shift following climate change, (ii) basic connectivity requirements of species, (iii) alternative climate change scenarios and their impacts, (iv) in the modelling of species distributions, and (v) different levels of confidence about present and future. When future impacts of climate change are uncertain, robustness of decision-making can be improved by quantifying the risks and trade-offs associated with climate scenarios. Sensible prioritization that accounts simultaneously for the present and potential future distributions of species is achievable without overly jeopardising present-day conservation values. Doing so requires systematic treatment of uncertainties and testing of the sensitivity of results to assumptions about climate. We illustrate the proposed framework by identifying priority areas for amphibians and reptiles in Europe.}, }
@article {pmid23399790, year = {2013}, author = {Hueffer, K and Parkinson, AJ and Gerlach, R and Berner, J}, title = {Zoonotic infections in Alaska: disease prevalence, potential impact of climate change and recommended actions for earlier disease detection, research, prevention and control.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {72}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {23399790}, issn = {2242-3982}, support = {P20 GM103395/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; P20 RR016466/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; 8 P20 GM103395-12/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; 5P20RR016466-12/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Alaska/epidemiology ; Animals ; Arctic Regions/epidemiology ; Brucellosis/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; Communication ; Echinococcosis/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Health Education ; Humans ; Intestinal Diseases, Parasitic/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Prevalence ; Public Health Administration ; Rabies/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Sentinel Surveillance ; Toxoplasmosis/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Tularemia/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; }, abstract = {Over the last 60 years, Alaska's mean annual temperature has increased by 1.6°C, more than twice the rate of the rest of the United States. As a result, climate change impacts are more pronounced here than in other regions of the United States. Warmer temperatures may allow some infected host animals to survive winters in larger numbers, increase their population and expand their range of habitation thus increasing the opportunity for transmission of infection to humans. Subsistence hunting and gathering activities may place rural residents of Alaska at a greater risk of acquiring zoonotic infections than urban residents. Known zoonotic diseases that occur in Alaska include brucellosis, toxoplasmosis, trichinellosis, giardiasis/cryptosporidiosis, echinococcosis, rabies and tularemia. Actions for early disease detection, research and prevention and control include: (1) determining baseline levels of infection and disease in both humans and host animals; (2) conducting more research to understand the ecology of infection in the Arctic environment; (3) improving active and passive surveillance systems for infection and disease in humans and animals; (4) improving outreach, education and communication on climate-sensitive infectious diseases at the community, health and animal care provider levels; and (5) improving coordination between public health and animal health agencies, universities and tribal health organisations.}, }
@article {pmid23398734, year = {2013}, author = {D'Amato, G and Baena-Cagnani, CE and Cecchi, L and Annesi-Maesano, I and Nunes, C and Ansotegui, I and D'Amato, M and Liccardi, G and Sofia, M and Canonica, WG}, title = {Climate change, air pollution and extreme events leading to increasing prevalence of allergic respiratory diseases.}, journal = {Multidisciplinary respiratory medicine}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {12}, pmid = {23398734}, issn = {1828-695X}, abstract = {The prevalence of asthma and allergic diseases has increased dramatically during the past few decades not only in industrialized countries. Urban air pollution from motor vehicles has been indicated as one of the major risk factors responsible for this increase.Although genetic factors are important in the development of asthma and allergic diseases, the rising trend can be explained only in changes occurred in the environment. Despite some differences in the air pollution profile and decreasing trends of some key air pollutants, air quality is an important concern for public health in the cities throughout the world.Due to climate change, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanized areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health.The observational evidence indicates that recent regional changes in climate, particularly temperature increases, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. Associations between thunderstorms and asthma morbidity in pollinosis subjects have been also identified in multiple locations around the world.Allergens patterns are also changing in response to climate change and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens especially in presence of specific weather conditions.The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known yet. The consequences on health vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, and exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases.Factor clouding the issue is that laboratory evaluations do not reflect what happens during natural exposition, when atmospheric pollution mixtures in polluted cities are inhaled. In addition, it is important to recall that an individual's response to pollution exposure depends on the source and components of air pollution, as well as meteorological conditions. Indeed, some air pollution-related incidents with asthma aggravation do not depend only on the increased production of air pollution, but rather on atmospheric factors that favour the accumulation of air pollutants at ground level.Considering these aspects governments worldwide and international organizations such as the World Health Organization and the European Union are facing a growing problem of the respiratory effects induced by gaseous and particulate pollutants arising from motor vehicle emissions.}, }
@article {pmid23398634, year = {2013}, author = {Davey, CM and Devictor, V and Jonzén, N and Lindström, A and Smith, HG}, title = {Impact of climate change on communities: revealing species' contribution.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {82}, number = {3}, pages = {551-561}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12035}, pmid = {23398634}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Species Specificity ; Sweden ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {1. Although climate is known to play an important role in structuring biological communities, high-resolution analyses of recent climatic impacts on multiple components of diversity are still sparse. Additionally, there is a lack of knowledge about which species drive community response to environmental change. 2. We used a long-term breeding bird data set that encompasses a large latitudinal and altitudinal range to model the effect of temperature on spatial and temporal patterns in alpha and beta diversity. We also established a novel framework for identifying species-specific contributions to these macroecological patterns, hence combining two different approaches for identifying climatic impacts. 3. Alpha diversity increased over time, whilst beta diversity declined; both diversity metrics showed a significant relationship with recent temperature anomalies. By partitioning beta diversity, we showed that the decline was predominately driven by changes in species turnover rather than nestedness suggesting a process of replacement by more common species. 4. Using jackknife analyses we identified how individual species influenced the modelled relationships of diversity with temperature and time. Influential species tended to be habitat generalists with moderate to large distributions. 5. We demonstrate that different facets of avian diversity can respond rapidly to temperature anomalies and as a result have undergone significant changes in the last decade. In general, it appears that warming temperatures are driving compositional homogenization of temperate bird communities via range expansion of common generalist species.}, }
@article {pmid23398298, year = {2013}, author = {Bell, EJ}, title = {Climate change and health research: has it served rural communities?.}, journal = {Rural and remote health}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {2343}, pmid = {23398298}, issn = {1445-6354}, mesh = {Benchmarking/methods/*standards ; Capacity Building ; *Climate Change ; *Community-Based Participatory Research/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Evidence-Based Practice ; Humans ; Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ; Organizational Innovation ; *Policy Making ; Rural Health/ethnology/*standards ; Social Sciences/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: If climate change is the 21st Century's biggest public health threat, research faces the major challenge of providing adequate evidence for vulnerable communities to adapt to the health effects of climate change. Available information about best practice in climate adaptation suggests it is inclusive of socio-economic disadvantage and local community factors such as access to health services. Since 1995, at least 19 164 papers have been published on climate change in the health sciences and social sciences. This body of literature has not yet been systematically examined for how well it serves rural communities.<br><br>METHODS: The ultimate aim of the study was to contribute to better understandings about what climate adaptation research has been done and is needed for rural communities. The two research questions were: 'What kinds of content define climate change research in disciplines that could potentially contribute to adaptation for health?' and 'How is content about rural and Aboriginal communities and best practice in adaptation related to this content?' A quantitative content analysis was performed using 'computational linguistics' Leximancer software. The analysis included 19 164 health and social sciences abstracts, batched by years, from 1 January 1995 to 31 July 2012. The relative frequency and co-occurrence of 52 concepts in these abstracts were mapped, as well as associations with positive or negative sentiment for selected concepts.<br><br>RESULTS: Aboriginal' concepts tend to be relatively infrequent (3% and 5% overall likelihood of occurrence, respectively) and are more associated with socio-economic concepts in the social sciences than the health sciences. Multiple concepts in the health sciences literature are typically connected with 'disease' and ultimately 'science' storylines, with a 38% likelihood of paired co-occurrence of 'health' and 'disease' concepts alone. The social sciences appear more focused on the local and particular issues of community in climate change than the health sciences. 'Rural' and 'Aboriginal' concepts have increased by 1% across both discipline areas, since 2011 for the 'rural' concept and since 2004 for the 'Aboriginal' concept. 'Health' concepts in the health sciences and 'economic' concepts in the social sciences, as well as 'urban' concepts, are referred to more positively than either the 'rural' or 'Aboriginal' concepts.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: While care needs to be taken in interpreting the results of this study too negatively for rural and Aboriginal communities, they suggest that a disease focus dominates climate and health research typically unconnected to wider socio-economic and human system factors. This finding needs to be considered in light of the accumulating evidence of the importance of such contextual systemic factors in understanding climate and health effects and responses. The study adds some support to the view that a key priority is bringing the learnings of applied community-based researchers, from those in rural health to those in the social sciences, to climate research. There is a need to build confidence, including in the rural health sector which has arguably been slow to participate in programs of climate change research, that community-based research could make a difference to rural health in a climate-changing world.}, }
@article {pmid23397072, year = {2014}, author = {Bannayan, M and Mansoori, H and Rezaei, EE}, title = {Estimating climate change, CO2 and technology development effects on wheat yield in northeast Iran.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {58}, number = {3}, pages = {395-405}, pmid = {23397072}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; *Environment ; Environmental Monitoring ; Iran ; *Models, Statistical ; Technology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Wheat is the main food for the majority of Iran's population. Precise estimation of wheat yield change in future is essential for any possible revision of management strategies. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change, CO2 concentration, technology development and their integrated effects on wheat production under future climate change. This study was performed under two scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): regional economic (A2) and global environmental (B1). Crop production was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) in comparison with a baseline year (2005) for Khorasan province located in the northeast of Iran. Four study locations in the study area included Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar. The effect of technology development was calculated by fitting a regression equation between the observed wheat yields against historical years considering yield potential increase and yield gap reduction as technology development. Yield relative increase per unit change of CO2 concentration (1 ppm(-1)) was considered 0.05 % and was used to implement the effect of elevated CO2. The HadCM3 general circulation model along with the CSM-CERES-Wheat crop model were used to project climate change effects on wheat crop yield. Our results illustrate that, among all the factors considered, technology development provided the highest impact on wheat yield change. Highest wheat yield increase across all locations and time periods was obtained under the A2 scenario. Among study locations, Mashhad showed the highest change in wheat yield. Yield change compared to baseline ranged from -28 % to 56 % when the integration of all factors was considered across all locations. It seems that achieving higher yield of wheat in future may be expected in northeast Iran assuming stable improvements in production technology.}, }
@article {pmid23394373, year = {2013}, author = {Anstey, MH}, title = {Climate change and health--what's the problem?.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {4}, pmid = {23394373}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control ; Health Policy ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Politics ; }, abstract = {The scientific consensus is that global warming is occurring and is largely the result of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. This paper examines the health implications of global warming, the current socio-political attitudes towards action on climate change and highlight the health co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, policy development for climate change and health should embrace health systems strengthening, commencing by incorporating climate change targets into Millennium Development Goal 7.}, }
@article {pmid23393241, year = {2013}, author = {Larson, C}, title = {Climate change. Losing arable land, China faces stark choice: adapt or go hungry.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {339}, number = {6120}, pages = {644-645}, doi = {10.1126/science.339.6120.644}, pmid = {23393241}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Food Supply ; Oryza/growth &amp; development ; Triticum/growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid23393237, year = {2013}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global change. Forecasting regional climate change flunks its first test.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {339}, number = {6120}, pages = {638}, doi = {10.1126/science.339.6120.638}, pmid = {23393237}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid23389449, year = {2013}, author = {Randerson, JT}, title = {Climate science: Global warming and tropical carbon.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {494}, number = {7437}, pages = {319-320}, pmid = {23389449}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Carbon Cycle/*physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Trees/*metabolism ; *Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid23389447, year = {2013}, author = {Cox, PM and Pearson, D and Booth, BB and Friedlingstein, P and Huntingford, C and Jones, CD and Luke, CM}, title = {Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {494}, number = {7437}, pages = {341-344}, pmid = {23389447}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Carbon Cycle/*physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/*metabolism ; Cell Respiration ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Photosynthesis ; Rain ; Temperature ; Trees/*metabolism ; *Tropical Climate ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The release of carbon from tropical forests may exacerbate future climate change, but the magnitude of the effect in climate models remains uncertain. Coupled climate-carbon-cycle models generally agree that carbon storage on land will increase as a result of the simultaneous enhancement of plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, but will decrease owing to higher soil and plant respiration rates associated with warming temperatures. At present, the balance between these effects varies markedly among coupled climate-carbon-cycle models, leading to a range of 330 gigatonnes in the projected change in the amount of carbon stored on tropical land by 2100. Explanations for this large uncertainty include differences in the predicted change in rainfall in Amazonia and variations in the responses of alternative vegetation models to warming. Here we identify an emergent linear relationship, across an ensemble of models, between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) to tropical temperature anomalies. Combined with contemporary observations of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and tropical temperature, this relationship provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. We estimate that over tropical land from latitude 30° north to 30° south, warming alone will release 53 ± 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin. Compared with the unconstrained ensemble of climate-carbon-cycle projections, this indicates a much lower risk of Amazon forest dieback under CO(2)-induced climate change if CO(2) fertilization effects are as large as suggested by current models. Our study, however, also implies greater certainty that carbon will be lost from tropical land if warming arises from reductions in aerosols or increases in other greenhouse gases.}, }
@article {pmid23387122, year = {2012}, author = {Moore, JL and Liang, S and Akullian, A and Remais, JV}, title = {Cautioning the use of degree-day models for climate change projections in the presence of parametric uncertainty.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {22}, number = {8}, pages = {2237-2247}, pmid = {23387122}, issn = {1051-0761}, support = {K01 AI091864/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI068854/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; T32 AI055404/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; China ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Demography ; Disease Reservoirs ; *Models, Theoretical ; Schistosoma japonicum/physiology ; Seasons ; Snails/parasitology/*physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Developmental models, such as degree-day models, are commonly used to predict the impact of future climate change on the intensity, distribution, and timing of the transmission of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by pathogens carried by vectors or intermediate hosts. Resulting projections can be useful in policy discussions concerning regional or national responses to future distributions of important infectious diseases. Although the simplicity of degree-day models is appealing, little work has been done to analyze their ability to make reliable projections of the distribution of important pathogens, vectors, or intermediate hosts in the presence of the often considerable parametric uncertainty common to such models. Here, a population model of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum, was used to investigate the sensitivity of host range predictions in Sichuan Province, China, to uncertainty in two key degree-day model parameters: delta(min) (minimum temperature threshold for development) and K (total degree-days required for completion of snail development). The intent was to examine the consequences of parametric uncertainty in a plausible biological model, rather than to generate the definitive model. Results indicate that model output, the seasonality of population dynamics, and range predictions, particularly along the edge of the range, are highly sensitive to changes in model parameters, even at levels of parametric uncertainty common to such applications. Caution should be used when interpreting the results of degree-day models used to generate predictions of disease distribution and risk under scenarios of future climate change, and predictions should be considered most reliable when the temperature ranges used in projections resemble those used to estimate model parameters. Given the potential for substantial changes in degree-day model output with modest changes in parameter values, caution is warranted when results will be used to inform policy and management decisions.}, }
@article {pmid23387110, year = {2012}, author = {Temperli, C and Bugmann, H and Elkin, C}, title = {Adaptive management for competing forest goods and services under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {22}, number = {8}, pages = {2065-2077}, doi = {10.1890/12-0210.1}, pmid = {23387110}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forestry/*methods ; Models, Theoretical ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Developing adaptive forest management strategies is essential to maintain the provisioning of forest goods and services (FGS) under future climate change. We assessed how climate change and forest management affect forest development and FGS for a diverse case-study landscape in Central Europe. Using a process-based forest model (LandClim) we simulated forest dynamics and FGS under a range of climate change and management scenarios in the Black Forest, Germany, which is shaped by various management practices. We focused on the interdependencies between timber production and forest diversity, the most valued FGS in this region. We found that the conversion to more drought-adapted forest types is required to prevent climate change-induced forest dieback and that this conversion must be the target of any adaptive management, especially in areas where monocultures of drought-sensitive Norway spruce (Picea abies) were promoted in the past. Forest conversion takes up to 120 years, however, with past and future adaptive management being the key drivers of timber and forest diversity provision. The conversion of drought-sensitive conifer monocultures maintains timber production in the short-term and enhances a range of forest diversity indices. Using uneven-aged forest management that targets a drought-adapted, diverse, and resilient species mixture, high species diversity can be combined with timber production in the long term. Yet, the promotion of mature-stand attributes requires management restrictions. Selecting future adaptive management options thus implies the consideration of trade-offs between forest resource use and environmental objectives, but also the exploitation of synergies between FGS that occur during forest conversion. Lastly, the large impact of past management practices on the spatial heterogeneity of forest dynamics underpins the need to assess FGS provisioning at the landscape scale.}, }
@article {pmid23384575, year = {2013}, author = {Abdalla, M and Saunders, M and Hastings, A and Williams, M and Smith, P and Osborne, B and Lanigan, G and Jones, MB}, title = {Simulating the impacts of land use in northwest Europe on Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE): the role of arable ecosystems, grasslands and forest plantations in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {465}, number = {}, pages = {325-336}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.12.030}, pmid = {23384575}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {In this study, we compared measured and simulated Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) values from three wide spread ecosystems in the southeast of Ireland (forest, arable and grassland), and investigated the suitability of the DNDC (the DeNitrification-DeComposition) model to estimate present and future NEE. Although, the field-DNDC version overestimated NEE at temperatures >5 °C, forest-DNDC under-estimated NEE at temperatures >5 °C. The results suggest that the field/forest DNDC models can successfully estimate changes in seasonal and annual NEE from these ecosystems. Differences in NEE were found to be primarily land cover specific. The annual NEE was similar for the grassland and arable sites, but due to the contribution of exported carbon, the soil carbon increased at the grassland site and decreased at the arable site. The NEE of the forest site was an order of magnitude larger than that of the grassland or arable ecosystems, with large amounts of carbon stored in woody biomass and the soil. The average annual NEE, GPP and Reco values over the measurement period were -904, 2379 and 1475 g C m(-2) (forest plantations), -189, 906 and 715 g C m(-2) (arable systems) and -212, 1653 and 1444 g C m(-2) (grasslands), respectively. The average RMSE values were 3.8 g C m(-2) (forest plantations), 0.12 g C m(-2) (arable systems) and 0.21 g C m(-2) (grasslands). When these models were run with climate change scenarios to 2060, predictions show that all three ecosystems will continue to operate as carbon sinks. Further, climate change may decrease the carbon sink strength in the forest plantations by up to 50%. This study supports the use of the DNDC model as a valid tool to predict the consequences of climate change on NEE from different ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid23382259, year = {2013}, author = {Sibbald, B}, title = {Physicians' roles on the front line of climate change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {185}, number = {3}, pages = {195}, pmid = {23382259}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {Cholera/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/epidemiology ; Disaster Medicine ; Disasters/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; West Nile Fever/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid23382198, year = {2013}, author = {Thompson, J and Charpentier, A and Bouguet, G and Charmasson, F and Roset, S and Buatois, B and Vernet, P and Gouyon, PH}, title = {Evolution of a genetic polymorphism with climate change in a Mediterranean landscape.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {8}, pages = {2893-2897}, pmid = {23382198}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Mediterranean Sea ; *Polymorphism, Genetic ; Thymus Plant/genetics ; }, abstract = {Many species show changes in distribution and phenotypic trait variation in response to climatic warming. Evidence of genetically based trait responses to climate change is, however, less common. Here, we detected evolutionary variation in the landscape-scale distribution of a genetically based chemical polymorphism in Mediterranean wild thyme (Thymus vulgaris) in association with modified extreme winter freezing events. By comparing current data on morph distribution with that observed in the early 1970s, we detected a significant increase in the proportion of morphs that are sensitive to winter freezing. This increase in frequency was observed in 17 of the 24 populations in which, since the 1970s, annual extreme winter freezing temperatures have risen above the thresholds that cause mortality of freezing-sensitive morphs. Our results provide an original example of rapid ongoing evolutionary change associated with relaxed selection (less extreme freezing events) on a local landscape scale. In species whose distribution and genetic variability are shaped by strong selection gradients, there may be little time lag associated with their ecological and evolutionary response to long-term environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid23380258, year = {2012}, author = {Ames, J}, title = {Who's getting the job done? An interview with Alden Meyer on the slow pace of climate change policy.}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {525-538}, doi = {10.2190/NS.22.4.i}, pmid = {23380258}, issn = {1541-3772}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; *Environmental Policy ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Policy Making ; Politics ; United States ; }, abstract = {New Solutions interviewed Alden Meyer, the director of strategy &amp; policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). His work focuses primarily on climate change policy at the state, federal and international levels. He discusses the current state of climate change policy, progress and innovation on the state and international fronts, and the tangible impacts we can make as citizens to hasten political action.}, }
@article {pmid23377191, year = {2013}, author = {Xu, C and Chen, Y and Chen, Y and Zhao, R and Ding, H}, title = {Responses of surface runoff to climate change and human activities in the arid region of central Asia: a case study in the Tarim River basin, China.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {51}, number = {4}, pages = {926-938}, pmid = {23377191}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Asia, Central ; China ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.}, }
@article {pmid23377036, year = {2013}, author = {Yang, J and Liu, HZ and Ou, CQ and Lin, GZ and Zhou, Q and Shen, GC and Chen, PY and Guo, Y}, title = {Global climate change: impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou, China.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {175}, number = {}, pages = {131-136}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2012.12.021}, pmid = {23377036}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; China ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mortality/*trends ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, but little is known about the effects of DTR on mortality. We examined the effects of DTR on cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China during 2003-2010. A quasi-Poisson regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the effects of DTR, after controlling for daily mean temperature, air pollutants, season and day of the week. A 1 °C increase in DTR at lag 0-4 days was associated with a 0.47% (95% confidence interval: 0.01%-0.93%) increase in non-accidental mortality. Stroke mortality was most sensitive to DTR. Female, the elderly and those with low education were more susceptible to DTR than male, the youth and those with high education, respectively. Our findings suggest that vulnerable subpopulations should pay more attention to protect themselves from unstable daily weather.}, }
@article {pmid23376514, year = {2013}, author = {Li, R and Merchant, JW}, title = {Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {447}, number = {}, pages = {32-45}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.01.011}, pmid = {23376514}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Biofuels ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Fertilizers ; Geographic Information Systems ; *Groundwater ; Models, Theoretical ; North Dakota ; Water Pollutants, Chemical ; *Water Pollution ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource.}, }
@article {pmid23363925, year = {2012}, author = {Guo, YF and Li, TT and Cheng, YL and Ge, TX and Chen, C and Liu, F}, title = {[Prediction of heat-related mortality impacts under climate change scenarios in Shanghai].}, journal = {Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine]}, volume = {46}, number = {11}, pages = {1025-1029}, pmid = {23363925}, issn = {0253-9624}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Mortality ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in shanghai.<br><br>METHODS: The statistical downscaling techniques were applied to simulate the daily mean temperatures of Shanghai in the middle and farther future under the changing climate. Based on the published exposure-reaction relationship of temperature and mortality in Shanghai, we projected the heat-related mortality in the middle and farther future under the circumstance of high speed increase of carbon e mission (A2) and low speed increase of carbon emission (B2). The data of 1961 to 1990 was used to establish the model, and the data of 1991 - 2001 was used to testify the model, and then the daily mean temperature from 2030 to 2059 and from 2070 to 2099 were simulated and the heat-related mortality was projected. The data resources were from U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis Data in SDSM Website and UK Hadley Centre Coupled Model Data in SDSM Website.<br><br>RESULTS: The explained variance and the standard error of the established model was separately 98.1% and 1.24&#xb0;C. The R(2) value of the simulated trend line equaled to 0.978 in Shanghai, as testified by the model. Therefore, the temperature prediction model simulated daily mean temperatures well. Under A2 scenario, the daily mean temperature in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099 were projected to be 17.9&#xb0;C and 20.4&#xb0;C, respectively, increasing by 1.1&#xb0;C and 3.6&#xb0;C when compared to baseline period (16.8&#xb0;C). Under B2 scenario, the daily mean temperature in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099 were projected to be 17.8&#xb0;C and 19.1&#xb0;C, respectively, increasing by 1.0&#xb0;C and 2.3&#xb0;C when compared to baseline period (16.8&#xb0;C). Under A2 scenario, annual average heat-related mortality were projected to be 516 cases and 1191 cases in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099, respectively, increasing 53.6% and 254.5% when compared with baseline period (336 cases). Under B2 scenario, annual average heat-related mortality were projected to be 498 cases and 832 cases in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099, respectively, increasing 48.2% and 147.6% when compared with baseline period (336 cases).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Under the changing climate, heat-related mortality is projected to increase in the future;and the increase will be more obvious in year 2070 - 2099 than in year 2030 - 2059.}, }
@article {pmid23363858, year = {2012}, author = {Ma, WJ}, title = {[Enhance the study of climate change and health, reduce the health risk].}, journal = {Zhonghua yu fang yi xue za zhi [Chinese journal of preventive medicine]}, volume = {46}, number = {10}, pages = {876-878}, pmid = {23363858}, issn = {0253-9624}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; Risk Adjustment ; }, }
@article {pmid23361002, year = {2013}, author = {Cheng, H and Sinha, A and Cruz, FW and Wang, X and Edwards, RL and d'Horta, FM and Ribas, CC and Vuille, M and Stott, LD and Auler, AS}, title = {Climate change patterns in Amazonia and biodiversity.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {1411}, pmid = {23361002}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Caves ; *Climate Change ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Geography ; Oxygen Isotopes ; South America ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Precise characterization of hydroclimate variability in Amazonia on various timescales is critical to understanding the link between climate change and biodiversity. Here we present absolute-dated speleothem oxygen isotope records that characterize hydroclimate variation in western and eastern Amazonia over the past 250 and 20 ka, respectively. Although our records demonstrate the coherent millennial-scale precipitation variability across tropical-subtropical South America, the orbital-scale precipitation variability between western and eastern Amazonia exhibits a quasi-dipole pattern. During the last glacial period, our records imply a modest increase in precipitation amount in western Amazonia but a significant drying in eastern Amazonia, suggesting that higher biodiversity in western Amazonia, contrary to 'Refugia Hypothesis', is maintained under relatively stable climatic conditions. In contrast, the glacial-interglacial climatic perturbations might have been instances of loss rather than gain in biodiversity in eastern Amazonia, where forests may have been more susceptible to fragmentation in response to larger swings in hydroclimate.}, }
@article {pmid23359942, year = {2012}, author = {Jin, YH and Zhou, DW and Qin, LJ}, title = {[Sowing date of corn in semiarid region of Jilin Province, Northeast China in adapting to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {10}, pages = {2795-2802}, pmid = {23359942}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Rain ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Under the background of global climate change, the climate in semiarid region of west Jilin Province changed greatly, producing a profound impact on the corn production in this region. In this study, the corn seeds were under three treatments (accelerating germination at 10 and 25 degrees C, and dry seeds), and a field experiment with early sowing and traditional sowing was conducted in 2008 to investigate the effects of early sowing these seeds on the seedling emergence, growth, and yield, and compare the effects of early sowing and traditional sowing dates on the corn production and yield. In 1961-2010, the first day of the growth season of corn in semiarid region of west Jilin Province was advanced, the air temperature increased significantly, and the precipitation displayed a decreasing trend. At present, the corn sowing date in this region could be advanced to 11th, April. Accelerating germination at 10 degrees C, directly sowing dry seeds, and bed-irrigation sowing all benefited the seedling emergence and cold resistance of early-sown seeds, and the corn plant height and leaf area under early sowing were significantly higher, with the yield increased by 35% - 48%, compared with those under traditional sowing.}, }
@article {pmid23359941, year = {2012}, author = {Ye, MZ and Guo, JP and Yuan, B and Zhao, JF}, title = {[Thermal resources and maize temperature suitability in Northeast China under climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {10}, pages = {2786-2794}, pmid = {23359941}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Temperature ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of thermal resources and of temperature suitability of maize at its different growth stages in Northeast China, based on the 1951-2100 daily mean and minimum air temperature from RegCM3. In 1951-2100, the thermal resources in Northeast China had an obvious persistent increase, the first day of temperature > or = 10 degrees C continued to be advanced, and the north boundary line in the zone of the first date of temperature > or = 10 degrees C before April 25th moved eastward and northward. In 2071-2100, the first date in some areas of Liaoning Province would advance to March 26th, and the areas with active accumulated temperature > or = 10 degrees C more than 3000 degrees C x d, the length of growth season, and the areas suitable for late-maturing maize planting in Northeast China would increase persistently. In the region, the mean annual temperature in 2011-2100 would be 3.34 degrees C higher than that in 1981-2010. In 1951-2100, there was and would be an increasing temperature suitability of maize at its sowing-heading stage. In 1951-2040, the maize temperature suitability at heading-maturing stage and in whole growth season was and would be higher in Liaoning Province than in Heilongjiang Province; in 2041-2100, the maize temperature suitability at heading-maturing stage and in whole growth season would decrease gradually in Liaoning Province but increase gradually in east Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province.}, }
@article {pmid23359638, year = {2013}, author = {Li, J and Lin, X and Chen, A and Peterson, T and Ma, K and Bertzky, M and Ciais, P and Kapos, V and Peng, C and Poulter, B}, title = {Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {e54839}, pmid = {23359638}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; History, 21st Century ; }, abstract = {In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st) century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23350033, year = {2013}, author = {Loiseau, C and Harrigan, RJ and Bichet, C and Julliard, R and Garnier, S and Lendvai, AZ and Chastel, O and Sorci, G}, title = {Predictions of avian Plasmodium expansion under climate change.}, journal = {Scientific reports}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {1126}, pmid = {23350033}, issn = {2045-2322}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/transmission/veterinary ; Parasitemia/epidemiology/veterinary ; Passeriformes ; Plasmodium/*physiology ; Prevalence ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to changing environmental conditions. Diurnal temperature variation has been identified as a particularly important factor for the development of malaria parasites within vectors. Here, we conducted a survey across France, screening populations of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) for malaria (Plasmodium relictum). We investigated whether variation in remotely-sensed environmental variables accounted for the spatial variation observed in prevalence and parasitemia. While prevalence was highly correlated to diurnal temperature range and other measures of temperature variation, environmental conditions could not predict spatial variation in parasitemia. Based on our empirical data, we mapped malaria distribution under climate change scenarios and predicted that Plasmodium occurrence will spread to regions in northern France, and that prevalence levels are likely to increase in locations where transmission already occurs. Our findings, based on remote sensing tools coupled with empirical data suggest that climatic change will significantly alter transmission of malaria parasites.}, }
@article {pmid23349829, year = {2013}, author = {Jones, MC and Dye, SR and Fernandes, JA and Frölicher, TL and Pinnegar, JK and Warren, R and Cheung, WW}, title = {Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {e54216}, pmid = {23349829}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Marine Biology/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Models, Biological ; North Sea ; Species Specificity ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).}, }
@article {pmid23349623, year = {2013}, author = {Kula, N and Haines, A and Fryatt, R}, title = {Reducing vulnerability to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: the need for better evidence.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {e1001374}, pmid = {23349623}, issn = {1549-1676}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disaster Planning ; Humans ; Public Health/*methods ; *Uncertainty ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Robert Fryatt and colleagues argue for more attention to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa, a region that has contributed the least greenhouse gas emissions to the world's total but is more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change than any other.}, }
@article {pmid23349261, year = {2013}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. Soot is warming the world even more than thought.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {339}, number = {6118}, pages = {382}, doi = {10.1126/science.339.6118.382}, pmid = {23349261}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Soot ; }, }
@article {pmid23347948, year = {2013}, author = {Rajkumar, M and Prasad, MN and Swaminathan, S and Freitas, H}, title = {Climate change driven plant-metal-microbe interactions.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {53}, number = {}, pages = {74-86}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2012.12.009}, pmid = {23347948}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Biodegradation, Environmental ; Biological Availability ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Environmental Pollution ; Metals ; Metals, Heavy/analysis/*metabolism ; Microbial Interactions ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/*metabolism/microbiology ; Soil/chemistry ; Soil Microbiology ; Soil Pollutants/analysis/*metabolism ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Various biotic and abiotic stress factors affect the growth and productivity of crop plants. Particularly, the climatic and/or heavy metal stress influence various processes including growth, physiology, biochemistry, and yield of crops. Climatic changes particularly the elevated atmospheric CO2 enhance the biomass production and metal accumulation in plants and help plants to support greater microbial populations and/or protect the microorganisms against the impacts of heavy metals. Besides, the indirect effects of climatic change (e.g., changes in the function and structure of plant roots and diversity and activity of rhizosphere microbes) would lead to altered metal bioavailability in soils and concomitantly affect plant growth. However, the effects of warming, drought or combined climatic stress on plant growth and metal accumulation vary substantially across physico-chemico-biological properties of the environment (e.g., soil pH, heavy metal type and its bio-available concentrations, microbial diversity, and interactive effects of climatic factors) and plant used. Overall, direct and/or indirect effects of climate change on heavy metal mobility in soils may further hinder the ability of plants to adapt and make them more susceptible to stress. Here, we review and discuss how the climatic parameters including atmospheric CO2, temperature and drought influence the plant-metal interaction in polluted soils. Other aspects including the effects of climate change and heavy metals on plant-microbe interaction, heavy metal phytoremediation and safety of food and feed are also discussed. This review shows that predicting how plant-metal interaction responds to altering climatic change is critical to select suitable crop plants that would be able to produce more yields and tolerate multi-stress conditions without accumulating toxic heavy metals for future food security.}, }
@article {pmid23343978, year = {2012}, author = {Akompab, DA and Bi, P and Williams, S and Grant, J and Walker, IA and Augoustinos, M}, title = {Awareness of and attitudes towards heat waves within the context of climate change among a cohort of residents in Adelaide, Australia.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {1-17}, pmid = {23343978}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; *Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Cohort Studies ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Seasons ; South Australia ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Heat waves are a public health concern in Australia and unprecedented heat waves have been recorded in Adelaide over recent years. The aim of this study was to examine the perception and attitudes towards heat waves in the context of climate change among a group of residents in Adelaide, an Australian city with a temperate climate. A cross-sectional study was conducted in the summer of 2012 among a sample of 267 residents. The results of the survey found that television (89.9%), radio (71.2%), newspapers (45.3%) were the main sources from which respondents received information about heat waves. The majority of the respondents (73.0%) followed news about heat waves very or somewhat closely. About 26.6% of the respondents were extremely or very concerned about the effects of heat waves on them personally. The main issues that were of personal concern for respondents during a heat wave were their personal comfort (60.7%), their garden (48.7%), and sleeping well (47.6%). Overall, respondents were more concerned about the impacts of heat waves to the society than on themselves. There was a significant association between gender (χ[2] = 21.2, df = 3, p = 0.000), gross annual household income (p = 0.03) and concern for the societal effects of heat waves. Less than half (43.2%) of the respondents believed that heat waves will extremely or very likely increase in Adelaide according to climate projections. Nearly half (49.3%) believed that the effects of heat waves were already being felt in Adelaide. These findings may inform the reframing and communication strategies for heat waves in Adelaide in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23341884, year = {2013}, author = {Jaramillo, J and Setamou, M and Muchugu, E and Chabi-Olaye, A and Jaramillo, A and Mukabana, J and Maina, J and Gathara, S and Borgemeister, C}, title = {Climate change or urbanization? Impacts on a traditional coffee production system in East Africa over the last 80 years.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {e51815}, pmid = {23341884}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern ; Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Coffee/*growth &amp; development/parasitology ; Coleoptera/physiology ; Female ; Humans ; Plant Diseases/parasitology ; Rain ; Satellite Communications ; Temperature ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Global environmental changes (GEC) such as climate change (CC) and climate variability have serious impacts in the tropics, particularly in Africa. These are compounded by changes in land use/land cover, which in turn are driven mainly by economic and population growth, and urbanization. These factors create a feedback loop, which affects ecosystems and particularly ecosystem services, for example plant-insect interactions, and by consequence agricultural productivity. We studied effects of GEC at a local level, using a traditional coffee production area in greater Nairobi, Kenya. We chose coffee, the most valuable agricultural commodity worldwide, as it generates income for 100 million people, mainly in the developing world. Using the coffee berry borer, the most serious biotic threat to global coffee production, we show how environmental changes and different production systems (shaded and sun-grown coffee) can affect the crop. We combined detailed entomological assessments with historic climate records (from 1929-2011), and spatial and demographic data, to assess GEC's impact on coffee at a local scale. Additionally, we tested the utility of an adaptation strategy that is simple and easy to implement. Our results show that while interactions between CC and migration/urbanization, with its resultant landscape modifications, create a feedback loop whereby agroecosystems such as coffee are adversely affected, bio-diverse shaded coffee proved far more resilient and productive than coffee grown in monoculture, and was significantly less harmed by its insect pest. Thus, a relatively simple strategy such as shading coffee can tremendously improve resilience of agro-ecosystems, providing small-scale farmers in Africa with an easily implemented tool to safeguard their livelihoods in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid23330960, year = {2013}, author = {Zeigler, S}, title = {Predicting responses to climate change requires all life-history stages.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {82}, number = {1}, pages = {3-5}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12032}, pmid = {23330960}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Life Cycle Stages/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In Focus: Radchuk, V., Turlure, C. &amp; Schtickzelle, N. (2013) Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, 275-285. Population-level responses to climate change depend on many factors, including unexpected interactions among life history attributes; however, few studies examine climate change impacts over complete life cycles of focal species. Radchuk, Turlure &amp; Schtickzelle () used experimental and modelling approaches to predict population dynamics for the bog fritillary butterfly under warming scenarios. Although they found that warming improved fertility and survival of all stages with one exception, populations were predicted to decline because overwintering larvae, whose survival declined with warming, were disproportionately important contributors to population growth. This underscores the importance of considering all life history stages in analyses of climate change's effects on population dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid23322801, year = {2013}, author = {Rom, WN and Evans, L and Uppal, A}, title = {The sentinel event of climate change: Hurricane Sandy and its consequences for pulmonary and critical care medicine.}, journal = {American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine}, volume = {187}, number = {2}, pages = {iii-iv}, doi = {10.1164/rccm.201212-2207OE}, pmid = {23322801}, issn = {1535-4970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Critical Care ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Disaster Medicine ; Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; Humans ; New York City ; *Pulmonary Medicine ; }, }
@article {pmid23321114, year = {2012}, author = {Adamo, SA and Baker, JL and Lovett, MM and Wilson, G}, title = {Climate change and temperate zone insects: the tyranny of thermodynamics meets the world of limited resources.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {41}, number = {6}, pages = {1644-1652}, doi = {10.1603/EN11188}, pmid = {23321114}, issn = {1938-2936}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Feeding Behavior ; Female ; Gryllidae/*physiology ; Infrared Rays ; Insecta/*physiology ; Lipid Metabolism ; Male ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Sexual Behavior, Animal ; Thermodynamics ; }, abstract = {Climate change will result in warmer temperatures and an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Given that higher temperatures increase the reproductive rate of temperate zone insects, insect population growth rates are predicted to increase in the temperate zone in response to climate. This consensus, however, rests on the assumption that food is freely available. However, under conditions of limited food, the reproductive output of the Texan cricket Gryllus texensis (Cade and Otte) was highest at its current normal average temperature and declined with increasing temperature. Moreover, low food availability decreased survival during a simulated heat wave. Therefore, the effects of climate change on this species, and possibly on many others, are likely to hinge on food availability. Extrapolation from our data suggests that G. texensis will show larger yearly fluctuations in population size as climate change continues, and this will also have ecological repercussions. Only those temperate zone insects with a ready supply of food (e.g., agricultural pests) are likely to experience the predicted increase in population growth in response to climate change; food-limited species are likely to experience a population decline.}, }
@article {pmid23321111, year = {2012}, author = {Fliszkiewicz, M and Giejdasz, K and Wasielewski, O and Krishnan, N}, title = {Influence of winter temperature and simulated climate change on body mass and fat body depletion during diapause in adults of the solitary bee, Osmia rufa (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae).}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {41}, number = {6}, pages = {1621-1630}, doi = {10.1603/EN12004}, pmid = {23321111}, issn = {1938-2936}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees/anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Body Size ; Climate Change ; Fat Body/metabolism ; Female ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The influence of simulated climate change on body weight and depletion of fat body reserves was studied during diapause in the European solitary bee Osmia rufa L. (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae). Insects (females) were reared and collected from outdoor nests from September to March. One cohort of females was weighed and dissected immediately for analyses, whereas another cohort was subjected to simulated warmer temperature (15°C for 7 d) before analyses. A gradual decline in body mass and fat body content was recorded with declining temperatures from September to January in female bees from natural conditions. Temperature increased gradually from January to March with a further decline in body mass and fat body content. The fat body development index dropped from five in September-October (≈ 89% individuals) to four for the period from November to February (≈ 84% individuals) and further to three in March (95% individuals) before emergence. Simulated warmer winter temperature also resulted in a similar decline in body weight and fat body content; however, body weight and fat body content declined faster. The fat body development index dropped to three in December in the majority of individuals and continued at this level until March just before emergence. Taken together, our data indicate an earlier depletion of fat body reserves under simulated climate change conditions that may impact ovarian development and reproductive fitness in O. rufa.}, }
@article {pmid23314896, year = {2013}, author = {De Sario, M and Katsouyanni, K and Michelozzi, P}, title = {Climate change, extreme weather events, air pollution and respiratory health in Europe.}, journal = {The European respiratory journal}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {826-843}, doi = {10.1183/09031936.00074712}, pmid = {23314896}, issn = {1399-3003}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; *Air Pollution ; *Allergens ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Ozone ; Particulate Matter ; Pollen ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Due to climate change and other factors, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health both independently and synergistically with weather conditions; climate scenarios show Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions. European studies on heatwave episodes have consistently shown a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures, while the potential weather-air pollution interaction during wildfires and dust storms is unknown. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change, and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens, especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known; the health consequences vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases, and premature death. These multidimensional climate-pollution-allergen effects need to be taken into account in estimating both climate and air pollution-related respiratory effects, in order to set up adequate policy and public health actions to face both the current and future climate and pollution challenges.}, }
@article {pmid23313675, year = {2013}, author = {Hu, Z and Lee, JW and Chandran, K and Kim, S and Sharma, K and Brotto, AC and Khanal, SK}, title = {Nitrogen transformations in intensive aquaculture system and its implication to climate change through nitrous oxide emission.}, journal = {Bioresource technology}, volume = {130}, number = {}, pages = {314-320}, doi = {10.1016/j.biortech.2012.12.033}, pmid = {23313675}, issn = {1873-2976}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Animals ; *Aquaculture ; *Catfishes/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {The rapid development of aquaculture could result in significant environmental concerns such as eutrophication and climate change. However, to date, very few studies have been conducted to investigate nitrogen transformations in aquaculture systems; and specifically the emission of nitrous oxide (N(2)O), which is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance. In this study, nitrogen transformations in intensive laboratory-scale Chinese catfish (Clarias fuscus) aquaculture systems were investigated by identifying and quantifying N(2)O emissions. Results indicated that about 1.3% of the nitrogen input was emitted as N(2)O gas. Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and feeding rates had significant effects on N(2)O emissions. Higher N(2)O emissions were obtained in aquaculture systems with lower DO concentrations and higher feeding rates. Both nitrification and denitrification appeared to be responsible for the emissions of N(2)O. Key factors which correlated with the N(2)O emission rate in aquaculture systems were NO(2)(-), DO and total ammonia nitrogen concentrations.}, }
@article {pmid23307713, year = {2013}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Global warming. Climate study highlights wedge issue.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {339}, number = {6116}, pages = {128-129}, doi = {10.1126/science.339.6116.128}, pmid = {23307713}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid23304431, year = {2013}, author = {Hossain, A and Teixeira da Silva, JA}, title = {Wheat production in Bangladesh: its future in the light of global warming.}, journal = {AoB PLANTS}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {pls042}, pmid = {23304431}, issn = {2041-2851}, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The most fundamental activity of the people of Bangladesh is agriculture. Modelling projections for Bangladesh indicate that warmer temperatures linked to climate change will severely reduce the growth of various winter crops (wheat, boro rice, potato and winter vegetables) in the north and central parts. In summer, crops in south-eastern parts of the country are at risk from increased flooding as sea levels increase.<br><br>KEY FACTS: Wheat is one of the most important winter crops and is temperature sensitive and the second most important grain crop after rice. In this review, we provide an up-to-date and detailed account of wheat research of Bangladesh and the impact that global warming may have on agriculture, especially wheat production. Although flooding is not of major importance or consequence to the wheat crop at present, some perspectives are provided on this stress since wheat is flood sensitive and the incidence of flooding is likely to increase.<br><br>PROJECTIONS: This information and projections will allow wheat breeders to devise new breeding programmes to attempt to mitigate future global warming. We discuss what this implies for food security in the broader context of South Asia.}, }
@article {pmid23303990, year = {2012}, author = {Blaser, MJ}, title = {The Jeremiah Metzger Lecture: Global warming redux: the disappearing microbiota and epidemic obesity.}, journal = {Transactions of the American Clinical and Climatological Association}, volume = {123}, number = {}, pages = {230-8; discussion 239-41}, pmid = {23303990}, issn = {0065-7778}, support = {UH2 AR057506/AR/NIAMS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 GM063270/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; R01DK090989/DK/NIDDK NIH HHS/United States ; R01GM63270/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; UH2AR057506/AR/NIAMS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 DK090989/DK/NIDDK NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology ; *Epidemics ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Global Warming ; Helicobacter pylori/drug effects/physiology ; Humans ; *Metagenome/drug effects/physiology ; Mice ; Models, Animal ; Obesity/*epidemiology/microbiology/physiopathology ; Prevalence ; }, }
@article {pmid23301805, year = {2013}, author = {Tham, KW}, title = {Priorities for ISIAQ in addressing climate change and sustainability challenges.}, journal = {Indoor air}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1111/ina.12014}, pmid = {23301805}, issn = {1600-0668}, mesh = {*Air Pollution, Indoor ; *Climate Change ; }, }
@article {pmid23301172, year = {2012}, author = {McDonald, KW and McClure, CJ and Rolek, BW and Hill, GE}, title = {Diversity of birds in eastern North America shifts north with global warming.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {12}, pages = {3052-3060}, pmid = {23301172}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The distribution of diversity along latitudinal and elevation gradients, and the coupling of this phenomenon with climate, is a pattern long recognized in ecology. Hypothesizing that climate change may have altered this pattern over time, we investigated whether the aggregate of reported northward shifts of bird ranges in North America is now detectable in community-level indices such as richness and diversity. Here, we report that bird diversity in North America increased and shifted northward between 1966 and 2010. This change in the relationship of diversity to the latitudinal gradient is primarily influenced by range expansions of species that winter in the eastern United States as opposed to species which migrate to this area from wintering grounds in the tropics. This increase in diversity and its northward expansion is best explained by an increase in regional prebreeding season temperature over the past 44 years.}, }
@article {pmid23300983, year = {2013}, author = {Sañé, E and Isla, E and Bárcena, M&#xc1; and DeMaster, DJ}, title = {A shift in the biogenic silica of sediment in the Larsen B continental shelf, off the Eastern Antarctic Peninsula, resulting from climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {e52632}, pmid = {23300983}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Diatoms ; *Geologic Sediments ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Ice Cover ; Lead ; Oceans and Seas ; Silicon Dioxide/*chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In 2002, section B of the Larsen ice shelf, off of the Eastern Antarctic Peninsula, collapsed and created the opportunity to study whether the changes at the sea surface left evidence in the sedimentary record. Biogenic silica is major constituent of Antarctic marine sediment, and its presence in the sediment column is associated with diatom production in the euphotic zone. The abundance of diatom valves and the number of sponge spicules in the biogenic silica was analyzed to determine how the origin of the biogenic silica in the upper layers of the sediment column responded to recent environmental changes. Diatom valves were present only in the upper 2 cm of sediment, which roughly corresponds to the period after the collapse of the ice shelf. In contrast, sponge spicules, a more robust form of biogenic silica, were also found below the upper 2 cm layer of the sediment column. Our results indicate that in this region most of the biogenic silica in the sedimentary record originated from sponge spicules rather than diatoms during the time when the sea surface was covered by the Larsen ice shelf. Since the collapse of the ice shelf, the development of phytoplankton blooms and the consequent influx of diatom debris to the seabed have shifted the biogenic silica record to one dominated by diatom debris, as occurs in most of the Antarctic marine sediment. This shift provides further evidence of the anthropogenic changes to the benthic habitats of the Antarctic and will improve the interpretation of the sedimentary record in Polar Regions where these events occur.}, }
@article {pmid23300805, year = {2012}, author = {Haden, VR and Niles, MT and Lubell, M and Perlman, J and Jackson, LE}, title = {Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {e52882}, pmid = {23300805}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Attitude ; California ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Culture ; Humans ; Motivation ; Perception ; Rural Population ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid23297773, year = {2013}, author = {Gaillard, JM and Hewison, AJ and Klein, F and Plard, F and Douhard, M and Davison, R and Bonenfant, C}, title = {How does climate change influence demographic processes of widespread species? Lessons from the comparative analysis of contrasted populations of roe deer.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {48-57}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12059}, pmid = {23297773}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Deer/physiology ; Ecosystem ; France ; *Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Trees ; }, abstract = {How populations respond to climate change depends on the interplay between life history, resource availability, and the intensity of the change. Roe deer are income breeders, with high levels of allocation to reproduction, and are hence strongly constrained by the availability of high quality resources during spring. We investigated how recent climate change has influenced demographic processes in two populations of this widespread species. Spring began increasingly earlier over the study, allowing us to identify 2 periods with contrasting onset of spring. Both populations grew more slowly when spring was early. As expected for a long-lived and iteroparous species, adult survival had the greatest potential impact on population growth. Using perturbation analyses, we measured the relative contribution of the demographic parameters to observed variation in population growth, both within and between periods and populations. Within periods, the identity of the critical parameter depended on the variance in growth rate, but variation in recruitment was the main driver of observed demographic change between periods of contrasting spring earliness. Our results indicate that roe deer in forest habitats cannot currently cope with increasingly early springs. We hypothesise that they should shift their distribution to richer, more heterogeneous landscapes to offset energetic requirements during the critical rearing stage.}, }
@article {pmid23297204, year = {2013}, author = {Barshis, DJ and Ladner, JT and Oliver, TA and Seneca, FO and Traylor-Knowles, N and Palumbi, SR}, title = {Genomic basis for coral resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, number = {4}, pages = {1387-1392}, pmid = {23297204}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Acclimatization/genetics ; American Samoa ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*genetics/parasitology/*physiology ; Cell Death/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Dinoflagellida/physiology ; Genes, MHC Class II ; Genome ; Heat-Shock Response/genetics ; Stress, Physiological ; Symbiosis ; Transcriptome ; }, abstract = {Recent advances in DNA-sequencing technologies now allow for in-depth characterization of the genomic stress responses of many organisms beyond model taxa. They are especially appropriate for organisms such as reef-building corals, for which dramatic declines in abundance are expected to worsen as anthropogenic climate change intensifies. Different corals differ substantially in physiological resilience to environmental stress, but the molecular mechanisms behind enhanced coral resilience remain unclear. Here, we compare transcriptome-wide gene expression (via RNA-Seq using Illumina sequencing) among conspecific thermally sensitive and thermally resilient corals to identify the molecular pathways contributing to coral resilience. Under simulated bleaching stress, sensitive and resilient corals change expression of hundreds of genes, but the resilient corals had higher expression under control conditions across 60 of these genes. These "frontloaded" transcripts were less up-regulated in resilient corals during heat stress and included thermal tolerance genes such as heat shock proteins and antioxidant enzymes, as well as a broad array of genes involved in apoptosis regulation, tumor suppression, innate immune response, and cell adhesion. We propose that constitutive frontloading enables an individual to maintain physiological resilience during frequently encountered environmental stress, an idea that has strong parallels in model systems such as yeast. Our study provides broad insight into the fundamental cellular processes responsible for enhanced stress tolerances that may enable some organisms to better persist into the future in an era of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23287004, year = {2013}, author = {Tillett, T}, title = {Climate change and elderly americans: examining adaptability in an aging population.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {121}, number = {1}, pages = {A33}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.121-a33}, pmid = {23287004}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid23286003, year = {2012}, author = {Sui, Y and Huang, WH and Yang, XG and Li, MS}, title = {[Characteristics and adaption of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of global climate change. II. Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought for wintering grain- and oil crops based on crop water deficit index].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {2467-2476}, pmid = {23286003}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Brassica rapa/metabolism/*physiology ; China ; Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Triticum/metabolism/*physiology ; Water/metabolism ; }, abstract = {In recent years, seasonal drought occurs frequently in southern China, giving severe impact on the production of local wintering crops. Based on the 1959-2009 meteorological data from 268 meteorological stations in southern China, and by using crop water deficit index (CWDI) as agricultural drought index, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought for winter wheat and rapeseed. The results showed that in southern China, drought happened more frequently in Southwest China, north Huaihe basin, and parts of South China during the developmental stages of wintering crops. In the mid-lower Yangtze basin, the intensity and extent of drought increased during the mid-late developmental stages of winter wheat, and became much heavier at its later developmental stages. For rapeseed, the intensity and extent of drought increased during the developmental stage before winter and the late developmental stages. In southwest part, the intensity and extent of drought increased significantly during the developmental stage before winter for winter wheat and rapeseed. Since the early 1990s, the intensity and extent of drought in southern China increased during the mid-late developmental stages of wintering crops.}, }
@article {pmid23286000, year = {2012}, author = {Hu, LL and Zhang, HY and Qin, L and Yan, BQ}, title = {[Current distribution of Schisandra chinensis in China and its predicted responses to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {2445-2450}, pmid = {23286000}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Plants, Medicinal/*growth &amp; development ; Schisandra/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {With integration of literature data, specimens records, and field surveys, the current distribution map of Schisandra chinensis in China was drawn, and, based on this map and considering 21 environmental factors, the future distribution of S. chinensis in China in the 2050s and 2080s under the IPCC A2 and A1B climate change scenarios was predicted by using Maxent software. Currently, the S. chinensis in China occurred in 15 provinces, involving 151 counties, and its distribution area decreased with decreasing latitude and longitude. The main distribution area included Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin. The potential distribution area of S. chinensis in China was 145.12 x 10(4) km2, 48.6% of which were the favorable habitat area, mainly distributed in Changbai Mountains, Xiaoxing'anling Mountains, Daxing'anling Mountains, and the regions between Hebei and Liaoning provinces. The most favorable habitat area only accounted for 0.3%, and was mainly in the Kuandian Manchu Autonomous County, Benxi Manchu Autonomous County, and Huanren Manchu Autonomous County of Liaoning Province, the Antu County and Helong County of Jilin Province, and the Yakeshi City of Inner Mongolia. Under the two climate change scenarios, the potential future distribution area of S. chinensis in China would have a gradual decrease, and the decrement would be larger under A2 than under A1B scenario. By 2050, the distribution area of the S. chinensis under A1B and A2 scenarios would be moderately decreased to 84.0% and 81.5% of the current distribution area, respectively; by 2080, the distribution of S. chinensis under A2 scenario would be dramatically decreased to only 0.5% of the current range, and that under A1B scenario would be decreased to 1/2 of the current range.}, }
@article {pmid23285194, year = {2012}, author = {Morley, SA and Martin, SM and Day, RW and Ericson, J and Lai, CH and Lamare, M and Tan, KS and Thorne, MA and Peck, LS}, title = {Thermal reaction norms and the scale of temperature variation: latitudinal vulnerability of intertidal nacellid limpets to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {e52818}, pmid = {23285194}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Gastropoda/*physiology ; New Zealand ; Singapore ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of "duration tenacity", which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (T(opt)) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CT(max) and T(opt) over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their environment could markedly influence their future distributions.}, }
@article {pmid23285098, year = {2012}, author = {Hof, AR and Jansson, R and Nilsson, C}, title = {Future climate change will favour non-specialist mammals in the (sub)arctics.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {e52574}, pmid = {23285098}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Arvicolinae/physiology ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Deer/physiology ; Europe ; Hares/physiology ; Mammals/*physiology ; Predatory Behavior/physiology ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub]arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub)arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub)arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature.}, }
@article {pmid23284974, year = {2012}, author = {Hare, JA and Wuenschel, MJ and Kimball, ME}, title = {Projecting range limits with coupled thermal tolerance - climate change models: an example based on gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. east coast.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {e52294}, pmid = {23284974}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Perciformes/*physiology ; United States ; }, abstract = {We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species.}, }
@article {pmid23282364, year = {2013}, author = {Rogelj, J and McCollum, DL and Reisinger, A and Meinshausen, M and Riahi, K}, title = {Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {493}, number = {7430}, pages = {79-83}, pmid = {23282364}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Conservation of Energy Resources/*methods/*trends ; Global Warming/economics/*prevention &amp; control ; Models, Theoretical ; Politics ; *Probability ; *Temperature ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {For more than a decade, the target of keeping global warming below 2 °C has been a key focus of the international climate debate. In response, the scientific community has published a number of scenario studies that estimate the costs of achieving such a target. Producing these estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well known, but poorly quantified, uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on the one hand, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other hand, has spent years improving its understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases. This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty in the cost of mitigation scenarios but has been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in only a rudimentary manner, that is, for equilibrium conditions. Here we bridge this gap between the two research communities by generating distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific values, taking into account uncertainties in four factors: geophysical, technological, social and political. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical uncertainties, social factors influencing future energy demand and, lastly, technological uncertainties surrounding the availability of greenhouse gas mitigation options. Our information on temperature risk and mitigation costs provides crucial information for policy-making, because it clarifies the relative importance of mitigation costs, energy demand and the timing of global action in reducing the risk of exceeding a global temperature increase of 2 °C, or other limits such as 3 °C or 1.5 °C, across a wide range of scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid23282360, year = {2013}, author = {Hatfield-Dodds, S}, title = {Climate change: All in the timing.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {493}, number = {7430}, pages = {35-36}, pmid = {23282360}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Conservation of Energy Resources/*methods/*trends ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; *Probability ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid23281447, year = {2012}, author = {Bhandari, GP and Gurung, S and Dhimal, M and Bhusal, CL}, title = {Climate change and occurrence of diarrheal diseases: evolving facts from Nepal.}, journal = {Journal of Nepal Health Research Council}, volume = {10}, number = {22}, pages = {181-186}, pmid = {23281447}, issn = {1999-6217}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Diarrhea/*epidemiology/etiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Nepal/epidemiology ; Rain ; Retrospective Studies ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is becoming huge threat to health especially for those from developing countries. Diarrhea as one of the major diseases linked with changing climate. This study has been carried out to assess the relationship between climatic variables, and malaria and to find out the range of non-climatic factors that can confound the relationship of climate change and human health.<br><br>METHODS: It is a Retrospective study where data of past ten years relating to climate and disease (diarrhea) variable were analyzed. The study conducted trend analysis based on correlation. The climate related data were obtained from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. Time Series analysis was also being conducted.<br><br>RESULTS: The trend of number of yearly cases of diarrhea has been increasing from 1998 to 2001 after which the cases remain constant till 2006.The climate types in Jhapa vary from humid to per-humid based on the moisture index and Mega-thermal based on thermal efficiency. The mean annual temperature is increasing at an average of 0.04 &#xb0;C/year with maximum temperature increasing faster than the minimum temperature. The annual total rainfall of Jhapa is decreasing at an average rate of -7.1 mm/year. Statistically significant correlation between diarrheal cases occurrence and temperature and rainfall has been observed. However, climate variables were not the significant predictors of diarrheal occurrence.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The association among climate variables and diarrheal disease occurrence cannot be neglected which has been showed by this study. Further prospective longitudinal study adjusting influence of non-climatic factors is recommended.}, }
@article {pmid23280293, year = {2013}, author = {Gao, Y and Zhou, X and Wang, Q and Wang, C and Zhan, Z and Chen, L and Yan, J and Qu, R}, title = {Vegetation net primary productivity and its response to climate change during 2001-2008 in the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {444}, number = {}, pages = {356-362}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.12.014}, pmid = {23280293}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {Alpine ecosystems are highly sensitive to global climate changes. The Tibetan Plateau is one of the areas that are most sensitive to global climate change. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation can impact the plateau's ecosystem productivity. Net primary productivity (NPP) is one of the most important factors in the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, a light-use-efficiency model was used to estimate the net primary productivity in the Tibetan Plateau. The model is based on a 1-km×1-km-resolution map of vegetation type, multi-temporal 500-m-resolution MODIS data and daily meteorological data. The spatial distribution pattern and dynamic change of the annual NPP from 2001 to 2008 are analyzed. Then, we analyzed the response of the NPP to temperature and precipitation changes. The results show that the mean annual NPP of alpine ecosystems in the Tibetan Plateau is equal to 0.472 Pg C and that the NPP exhibits significant seasonal and interannual variation due to the combined effects of temperature and precipitation changes. Finally, to analyze the effect of temperature and precipitation on the inter-annual change of the NPP, the correlation coefficient between temperature, precipitation and the NPP was computed. It was found that the relations among air temperature, precipitation and the NPP in the Tibetan Plateau region are different. The annual average temperature increase had a significantly positive effect on the vegetation NPP (R(2)=0.83). In contrast, the annual precipitation changes had a weakly negative effect on the vegetation NPP (R(2)=0.373).}, }
@article {pmid23279006, year = {2013}, author = {Pauls, SU and Nowak, C and Bálint, M and Pfenninger, M}, title = {The impact of global climate change on genetic diversity within populations and species.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {925-946}, doi = {10.1111/mec.12152}, pmid = {23279006}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/genetics ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Genetic Variation ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {Genetic diversity provides the basic substrate for evolution, yet few studies assess the impacts of global climate change (GCC) on intraspecific genetic variation. In this review, we highlight the importance of incorporating neutral and non-neutral genetic diversity when assessing the impacts of GCC, for example, in studies that aim to predict the future distribution and fate of a species or ecological community. Specifically, we address the following questions: Why study the effects of GCC on intraspecific genetic diversity? How does GCC affect genetic diversity? How is the effect of GCC on genetic diversity currently studied? Where is potential for future research? For each of these questions, we provide a general background and highlight case studies across the animal, plant and microbial kingdoms. We further discuss how cryptic diversity can affect GCC assessments, how genetic diversity can be integrated into studies that aim to predict species' responses on GCC and how conservation efforts related to GCC can incorporate and profit from inclusion of genetic diversity assessments. We argue that studying the fate of intraspecifc genetic diversity is an indispensable and logical venture if we are to fully understand the consequences of GCC on biodiversity on all levels.}, }
@article {pmid23278945, year = {2013}, author = {Nielsen, UN and Wall, DH}, title = {The future of soil invertebrate communities in polar regions: different climate change responses in the Arctic and Antarctic?.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {409-419}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12058}, pmid = {23278945}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Arctic Regions ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Invertebrates ; Soil/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {The polar regions are experiencing rapid climate change with implications for terrestrial ecosystems. Here, despite limited knowledge, we make some early predictions on soil invertebrate community responses to predicted twenty-first century climate change. Geographic and environmental differences suggest that climate change responses will differ between the Arctic and Antarctic. We predict significant, but different, belowground community changes in both regions. This change will be driven mainly by vegetation type changes in the Arctic, while communities in Antarctica will respond to climate amelioration directly and indirectly through changes in microbial community composition and activity, and the development of, and/or changes in, plant communities. Climate amelioration is likely to allow a greater influx of non-native species into both the Arctic and Antarctic promoting landscape scale biodiversity change. Non-native competitive species could, however, have negative effects on local biodiversity particularly in the Arctic where the communities are already species rich. Species ranges will shift in both areas as the climate changes potentially posing a problem for endemic species in the Arctic where options for northward migration are limited. Greater soil biotic activity may move the Arctic towards a trajectory of being a substantial carbon source, while Antarctica could become a carbon sink.}, }
@article {pmid23273248, year = {2012}, author = {Sauerborn, R and Ebi, K}, title = {Climate change and natural disasters: integrating science and practice to protect health.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {1-7}, pmid = {23273248}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; Health Status ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity.<br><br>METHODS: Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects.<br><br>RESULTS: Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protect human.}, }
@article {pmid23256579, year = {2012}, author = {Yang, GJ and Tanner, M and Utzinger, J and Malone, JB and Bergquist, R and Chan, EY and Gao, Q and Zhou, XN}, title = {Malaria surveillance-response strategies in different transmission zones of the People's Republic of China: preparing for climate change.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {426}, pmid = {23256579}, issn = {1475-2875}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles/parasitology ; China/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Environment ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; Humans ; Humidity ; Insect Vectors/parasitology ; Malaria/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/*transmission ; Malaria, Falciparum/transmission ; Malaria, Vivax/transmission ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: A sound understanding of malaria transmission patterns in the People's Republic of China (P.R. China) is crucial for designing effective surveillance-response strategies that can guide the national malaria elimination programme (NMEP). Using an established biology-driven model, it is expected that one may design and refine appropriate surveillance-response strategies for different transmission zones, which, in turn, assist the NMEP in the ongoing implementation period (2010-2020) and, potentially, in the post-elimination stage (2020-2050).<br><br>METHODS: Environmental data obtained from 676 locations across P.R. China, such as monthly temperature and yearly relative humidity (YRH), for the period 1961-2000 were prepared. Smoothed surface maps of the number of months suitable for parasite survival derived from monthly mean temperature and YRH were generated. For each decade, the final malaria prediction map was overlaid by two masked maps, one showing the number of months suitable for parasite survival and the other the length of YRH map in excess of 60%.<br><br>RESULTS: Considering multiple environmental factors simultaneously, the environmental variables suitable for malaria transmission were found to have shifted northwards, which was especially pronounced in northern P.R. China. The unstable suitable regions (transmission periods between five and six months) showed increased transmission intensity due to prolonged suitable periods, especially in the central part of the country.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Adequate and effective surveillance-response strategies for NMEP should be designed to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in P.R. China by 2020, especially in the zones predicted to be the most vulnerable for climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23256088, year = {2012}, author = {Shin, YS and Ha, J}, title = {Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.}, journal = {Environmental health and toxicology}, volume = {27}, number = {}, pages = {e2012018}, doi = {10.5620/eht.2012.27.e2012018}, pmid = {23256088}, issn = {2233-6567}, abstract = {Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.}, }
@article {pmid23253935, year = {2013}, author = {Gauly, M and Bollwein, H and Breves, G and Brügemann, K and Dänicke, S and Daş, G and Demeler, J and Hansen, H and Isselstein, J and König, S and Lohölter, M and Martinsohn, M and Meyer, U and Potthoff, M and Sanker, C and Schröder, B and Wrage, N and Meibaum, B and von Samson-Himmelstjerna, G and Stinshoff, H and Wrenzycki, C}, title = {Future consequences and challenges for dairy cow production systems arising from climate change in Central Europe - a review.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {843-859}, doi = {10.1017/S1751731112002352}, pmid = {23253935}, issn = {1751-732X}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry/methods/*trends ; *Animal Welfare ; Animals ; Cattle/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Dairying ; Europe ; }, abstract = {It is well documented that global warming is unequivocal. Dairy production systems are considered as important sources of greenhouse gas emissions; however, little is known about the sensitivity and vulnerability of these production systems themselves to climate warming. This review brings different aspects of dairy cow production in Central Europe into focus, with a holistic approach to emphasize potential future consequences and challenges arising from climate change. With the current understanding of the effects of climate change, it is expected that yield of forage per hectare will be influenced positively, whereas quality will mainly depend on water availability and soil characteristics. Thus, the botanical composition of future grassland should include species that are able to withstand the changing conditions (e.g. lucerne and bird's foot trefoil). Changes in nutrient concentration of forage plants, elevated heat loads and altered feeding patterns of animals may influence rumen physiology. Several promising nutritional strategies are available to lower potential negative impacts of climate change on dairy cow nutrition and performance. Adjustment of feeding and drinking regimes, diet composition and additive supplementation can contribute to the maintenance of adequate dairy cow nutrition and performance. Provision of adequate shade and cooling will reduce the direct effects of heat stress. As estimated genetic parameters are promising, heat stress tolerance as a functional trait may be included into breeding programmes. Indirect effects of global warming on the health and welfare of animals seem to be more complicated and thus are less predictable. As the epidemiology of certain gastrointestinal nematodes and liver fluke is favourably influenced by increased temperature and humidity, relations between climate change and disease dynamics should be followed closely. Under current conditions, climate change associated economic impacts are estimated to be neutral if some form of adaptation is integrated. Therefore, it is essential to establish and adopt mitigation strategies covering available tools from management, nutrition, health and plant and animal breeding to cope with the future consequences of climate change on dairy farming.}, }
@article {pmid23253166, year = {2012}, author = {Cáceres, SB}, title = {Climate change and animal diseases: making the case for adaptation.}, journal = {Animal health research reviews}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {209-222}, doi = {10.1017/S1466252312000199}, pmid = {23253166}, issn = {1475-2654}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The exponential expansion of the human population has led to overexploitation of resources and overproduction of items that have caused a series of potentially devastating effects, including ocean acidification, ozone depletion, biodiversity loss, the spread of invasive flora and fauna and climatic changes - along with the emergence of new diseases in animals and humans. Climate change occurs as a result of imbalances between incoming and outgoing radiation in the atmosphere. This process generates heat. As concentrations of atmospheric gases reach record levels, global temperatures are expected to increase significantly. The hydrologic cycle will be altered, since warmer air can retain more moisture than cooler air. This means that some geographic areas will have more rainfall, whereas others have more drought and severe weather. The potential consequences of significant and permanent climatic changes are altered patterns of diseases in animal and human populations, including the emergence of new disease syndromes and changes in the prevalence of existing diseases. A wider geographic distribution of known vectors and the recruitment of new strains to the vector pool could result in infections spreading to more and potentially new species of hosts. If these predictions turn out to be accurate, there will be a need for policymakers to consider alternatives, such as adaptation. This review explores the linkages between climate change and animal diseases, and examines interrelated issues that arise from altered biological dynamics. Its aim is to consider various risks and vulnerabilities and to make the case for policies favoring adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid23249861, year = {2012}, author = {Sčasný, M and Alberini, A}, title = {Valuation of mortality risk attributable to climate change: investigating the effect of survey administration modes on a VSL.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {4760-4781}, pmid = {23249861}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adult ; Attitude ; Choice Behavior ; Climate Change/*economics ; Czech Republic ; Data Collection/*methods ; Female ; Humans ; Internet ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Mortality, Premature ; Risk Reduction Behavior ; Surveys and Questionnaires/*standards ; Value of Life/*economics ; }, abstract = {The health impact attributable to climate change has been identified as one of the priority areas for impact assessment. The main goal of this paper is to estimate the monetary value of one key health effect, which is premature mortality. Specifically, our goal is to derive the value of a statistical life from people's willingness to pay for avoiding the risk of dying in one post-transition country in Europe, i.e., the Czech Republic. We carried out a series of conjoint choice experiments in order to value mortality risk reductions. We found the responses to the conjoint choice questions to be reasonable and consistent with the economic paradigm. The VSL is about EUR 2.4 million, and our estimate is comparable with the value of preventing a fatality as used in one of the integrated assessment models. To investigate whether carrying out the survey through the internet may violate the welfare estimate, we administered our questionnaire to two independent samples of respondents using two different modes of survey administration. The results show that the VSLs for the two groups of respondents are €2.25 and €2.55 million, and these figures are statistically indistinguishable. However, the key parameters of indirect utility between the two modes of survey administration are statistically different when specific subgroups of population, such as older respondents, are concerned. Based on this evidence, we conclude that properly designed and administered on-line surveys are a reliable method for administering questionnaires, even when the latter are cognitively challenging. However, attention should be paid to sampling and choice regarding the mode of survey administration if the preference of specific segments of the population is elicited.}, }
@article {pmid23247293, year = {2013}, author = {Curreli, A and Wallace, H and Freeman, C and Hollingham, M and Stratford, C and Johnson, H and Jones, L}, title = {Eco-hydrological requirements of dune slack vegetation and the implications of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {443}, number = {}, pages = {910-919}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.11.035}, pmid = {23247293}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Dune slacks are a seasonal coastal wetland habitat, whose plant assemblages and soil properties are strongly linked to a fluctuating water table. Climate change is predicted to cause major shifts in sand dune hydrological regimes, yet we know remarkably little about the tolerance of these communities to change, and their precise hydrological requirements are poorly quantified. Dune slack vegetation and soils were sampled within five vegetation types across four west coast UK sites. Relationships between vegetation assemblages, and parameters of soil development (moisture, loss on ignition, pH, KCl extractable ions) and groundwater hydrological regime (annual maximum and minimum water levels and range, duration of flooding) were established to define the environmental tolerances of different communities. In multivariate analysis of the vegetation, the dominant gradient was hydrological: dry to wet, followed by a secondary soil development gradient: young calcareous organic-poor soils to acidic/neutral soils with greater organic matter contents. Most measured hydrological and soil variables explained a significant proportion of observed variation in species composition when tested individually, with the exception of soil nitrate and soil calcium concentrations. Maximum water level was the key hydrological variable, and soil moisture and soil pH were the key soil variables. All hydrological and soil parameters together explained 22.5% of the total species variation. There were significant differences in hydrological and soil parameters between community types, with only 40 cm difference in mean annual minimum water levels (averaged over 4 years) separating the wettest and the driest dune slack communities. Therefore, predicted declines in water level exceeding 100 cm by 2080 are likely to have a major impact on the vegetation of these priority conservation habitats.}, }
@article {pmid23247142, year = {2012}, author = {Funari, E and Manganelli, M and Sinisi, L}, title = {Impact of climate change on waterborne diseases.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {473-487}, doi = {10.4415/ANN_12_04_13}, pmid = {23247142}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Cyanobacteria ; Droughts ; Global Warming ; Humans ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Pollution, Chemical/adverse effects/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Water Supply ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Change in climate and water cycle will challenge water availability but it will also increase the exposure to unsafe water. Floods, droughts, heavy storms, changes in rain pattern, increase of temperature and sea level, they all show an increasing trend worldwide and will affect biological, physical and chemical components of water through different paths thus enhancing the risk of waterborne diseases. This paper is intended, through reviewing the available literature, to highlight environmental changes and critical situations caused by floods, drought and warmer temperature that will lead to an increase of exposure to water related pathogens, chemical hazards and cyanotoxins. The final aim is provide knowledge-based elements for more focused adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid23246767, year = {2013}, author = {Raymond, CM and Spoehr, J}, title = {The acceptability of climate change in agricultural communities: comparing responses across variability and change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {115}, number = {}, pages = {69-77}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.11.003}, pmid = {23246767}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Rural Population ; South Australia ; }, abstract = {This study examined how the terms used to describe climate change influence landholder acceptability judgements and attitudes toward climate change at the local scale. Telephone surveys were conducted with landholders from viticultural (n = 97) or cereal growing (n = 195) backgrounds in rural South Australia. A variety of descriptive and inferential statistics were used to examine the influence of human-induced climate change and winter/spring drying trend terms on adaptation responses and uncertainties surrounding climate change science. We found that the terms used to describe climate change leads to significant differences in adaptation response and levels of scepticism surrounding climate change in rural populations. For example, those respondents who accepted human induced climate change as a reality were significantly more likely to invest in technologies to sow crops earlier or increase the amount of water stored or harvested on their properties than respondents who accepted the winter/spring drying trend as a reality. The results have implications for the targeting of climate change science messages to both rural landholders and communities of practice involved in climate change adaptation planning and implementation.}, }
@article {pmid23246620, year = {2013}, author = {Seeland, A and Albrand, J and Oehlmann, J and Müller, R}, title = {Life stage-specific effects of the fungicide pyrimethanil and temperature on the snail Physella acuta (Draparnaud, 1805) disclose the pitfalls for the aquatic risk assessment under global climate change.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {174}, number = {}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2012.10.020}, pmid = {23246620}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Animals ; Fungicides, Industrial/*toxicity ; Introduced Species ; Life Cycle Stages/*drug effects ; Pyrimidines/*toxicity ; Reproduction/drug effects ; Risk Assessment ; Snails/growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {It can be suggested that the combined stress of pesticide pollution and suboptimal temperature influences the sensitivity of life stages of aquatic invertebrates differently. The embryo, juvenile, half- and full-life-cycle toxicity tests performed with the snail Physella acuta at different concentrations (0.06-0.5 or 1.0 mg L(-1)) of the model fungicide pyrimethanil at 15, 20 and 25 °C revealed, that pyrimethanil caused concentration-dependent effects at all test temperatures. Interestingly, the ecotoxicity of pyrimethanil was higher at lower (suboptimal) temperature for embryo hatching and F(1) reproduction, but its ecotoxicity for juvenile growth and F(0) reproduction increased with increasing temperature. The life-stage specific temperature-dependent ecotoxicity of pyrimethanil and the high fungicide susceptibility of the invasive snail clearly demonstrate the complexity of pesticide-temperature interactions and the challenge to draw conclusions for the risk of pesticides under the impact of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23240835, year = {2012}, author = {Davidson, D}, title = {Analysing responses to climate change through the lens of reflexivity.}, journal = {The British journal of sociology}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {616-640}, doi = {10.1111/j.1468-4446.2012.01429.x}, pmid = {23240835}, issn = {1468-4446}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Alberta ; Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Interpersonal Relations ; Interviews as Topic ; Models, Theoretical ; *Social Behavior ; Social Responsibility ; }, abstract = {Sociologists are increasingly directing attention toward social responses to climate change. As is true of any new field of inquiry, theoretical frameworks guiding the research to date have room for improvement. One advance could be achieved through closer engagement with Reflexivity Theory, particularly the work of Margaret Archer, who asks just how individuals come to give attention to certain problems, and formulate responses to them. Individuals vary significantly in regard to their understanding of and concern for anthropogenic climate change, and these standpoints in turn influence commitment to mitigation and adaptation. The emergent social interactions among all such agents in turn influence the morphogenetic trajectories through which social structures will evolve, but the role of 'meta-reflexives' is particularly crucial. Identifying pathways of individual climate change reflexivity can make a valuable contribution to our understanding of the potential for and nature of collective responses. In this paper, I explore climate change reflexivity, with particular attention to climate change meta-reflexives, through a qualitative analysis of personal interviews with residents of two small communities in Alberta, Canada. Applying Reflexivity Theory to this context articulates dimensions of reflexive processing not elaborated in current theoretical treatments, including future outlook and comfort with uncertainty, among others.}, }
@article {pmid23239720, year = {2012}, author = {Mills, E}, title = {Climate change. The greening of insurance.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {338}, number = {6113}, pages = {1424-1425}, doi = {10.1126/science.1229351}, pmid = {23239720}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Climate Change/*economics ; Humans ; Insurance/*trends ; Risk ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid23236505, year = {2012}, author = {Jaeschke, A and Bittner, T and Jentsch, A and Reineking, B and Schlumprecht, H and Beierkuhnlein, C}, title = {Biotic interactions in the face of climate change: a comparison of three modelling approaches.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {e51472}, pmid = {23236505}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Demography ; Europe ; Geography ; Hydrocharitaceae/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Odonata/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; *Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter biotic interactions, and may lead to temporal and spatial mismatches of interacting species. Although the importance of interactions for climate change risk assessments is increasingly acknowledged in observational and experimental studies, biotic interactions are still rarely incorporated in species distribution models. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the obligate interaction between Aeshna viridis and its egg-laying plant Stratiotes aloides in Europe, based on an ensemble modelling technique. We compared three different approaches for incorporating biotic interactions in distribution models: (1) We separately modelled each species based on climatic information, and intersected the future range overlap ('overlap approach'). (2) We modelled the potential future distribution of A. viridis with the projected occurrence probability of S. aloides as further predictor in addition to climate ('explanatory variable approach'). (3) We calibrated the model of A. viridis in the current range of S. aloides and multiplied the future occurrence probabilities of both species ('reference area approach'). Subsequently, all approaches were compared to a single species model of A. viridis without interactions. All approaches projected a range expansion for A. viridis. Model performance on test data and amount of range gain differed depending on the biotic interaction approach. All interaction approaches yielded lower range gains (up to 667% lower) than the model without interaction. Regarding the contribution of algorithm and approach to the overall uncertainty, the main part of explained variation stems from the modelling algorithm, and only a small part is attributed to the modelling approach. The comparison of the no-interaction model with the three interaction approaches emphasizes the importance of including obligate biotic interactions in projective species distribution modelling. We recommend the use of the 'reference area approach' as this method allows a separation of the effect of climate and occurrence of host plant.}, }
@article {pmid23236369, year = {2012}, author = {Töpel, M and Antonelli, A and Yesson, C and Eriksen, B}, title = {Past climate change and plant evolution in Western North America: a case study in Rosaceae.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {e50358}, pmid = {23236369}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Plant/genetics ; North America ; Phylogeny ; Rosaceae/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Species in the ivesioid clade of Potentilla (Rosaceae) are endemic to western North America, an area that underwent widespread aridification during the global temperature decrease following the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. Several morphological features interpreted as adaptations to drought are found in the clade, and many species occupy extremely dry habitats. Recent phylogenetic analyses have shown that the sister group of this clade is Potentilla section Rivales, a group with distinct moist habitat preferences. This has led to the hypothesis that the ivesioids (genera Ivesia, Horkelia and Horkeliella) diversified in response to the late Tertiary aridification of western North America. We used phyloclimatic modeling and a fossil-calibrated dated phylogeny of the family Rosaceae to investigate the evolution of the ivesioid clade. We have combined occurrence- and climate data from extant species, and used ancestral state reconstruction to model past climate preferences. These models have been projected into paleo-climatic scenarios in order to identify areas where the ivesioids may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a split between the ivesioids and Potentilla sect. Rivales around Late Oligocene/Early Miocene (∼23 million years ago, Ma), and that the ivesioids then diversified at a time when summer drought started to appear in the region. The clade is inferred to have originated on the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains from where a westward range expansion to the Sierra Nevada and the coast of California took place between ∼12-2 Ma. Our results support the idea that climatic changes in southwestern North America have played an important role in the evolution of the local flora, by means of in situ adaptation followed by diversification.}, }
@article {pmid23231031, year = {2013}, author = {Sapkota, A and Yang, H and Wang, J}, title = {Securing rural livelihoods and climate change through sustainable use of biogas and improved cooking stoves in rural households in Nepal.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {47}, number = {1}, pages = {330-331}, doi = {10.1021/es304887q}, pmid = {23231031}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Biofuels ; Climate Change ; *Cooking ; Humans ; Nepal ; Rural Population ; }, }
@article {pmid23230785, year = {2012}, author = {}, title = {The other oil problem. The world's growing appetite for cheap palm oil is destroying rain forests and amplifying climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {307}, number = {6}, pages = {10}, pmid = {23230785}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {*Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Indonesia ; Palm Oil ; *Plant Oils ; *Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid23229828, year = {2013}, author = {White, SS and Selfa, T}, title = {Shifting lands: exploring Kansas farmer decision-making in an era of climate change and biofuels production.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {51}, number = {2}, pages = {379-391}, pmid = {23229828}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Biofuels ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Decision Making ; Kansas ; }, abstract = {While farming has been the subject of frequent critical analysis with respect to its environmental impacts, including its greenhouse gas emissions, there has been relatively little consideration of the potentially positive role of agriculture in responding to a future greatly influenced by climate change. One possible realm for agriculture to contribute successfully to this future is through biofuels cultivation. This paper uses the state of Kansas as an example to examine factors that are influencing farmer decision-making during a time of heightened debates about climate and energy. Drawing on interviews with key informants and Kansas farmers, we apply and refine a conceptual model for understanding farmer decisions. We find that farmers have largely positive perceptions of the natural environment. Climate change, especially, is not a salient concern at this time. Factors that appear most likely to influence farmer decisions to adopt a new practice include the relative advantage of that practice and the ability to learn about and discuss it through existing social networks. Successful policy incentives must provide farmers with a continued sense of both independence and contribution to greater societal good.}, }
@article {pmid23228681, year = {2012}, author = {Besancenot, JP and Thibaudon, M}, title = {[Climate change and pollination].}, journal = {Revue des maladies respiratoires}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {1238-1253}, doi = {10.1016/j.rmr.2012.07.007}, pmid = {23228681}, issn = {1776-2588}, mesh = {Allergens/immunology ; *Climate Change ; France ; Humans ; Pollen/immunology ; Pollination/*physiology ; Respiratory Hypersensitivity/etiology/immunology ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: There is growing evidence to support an increase in air temperature over recent decades, with significant effects on aeroallergens such as pollen. It is generally accepted that the trend will continue, and become even more pronounced in the future.<br><br>BACKGROUND: Global climate change is already affecting, and will continue to affect, with earlier floral initiation, the timing of the production of allergenic pollen. In addition, a warmer climate might lead to a longer pollen season and more days with high pollen counts. It could also increase the allergen content of pollens, and result in extension of plant species towards the poles and higher altitudes. Finally, rising levels of atmospheric CO&#x2082; are likely to reinforce these trends.<br><br>VIEWPOINT: These predictions are subject to uncertainties that may lead to outcomes that differ materially from what is expected. Understanding the magnitude and direction of the changes affecting pollinisation is critical in order to quantify the future allergic disease burden and model the impacts of different climate change scenarios.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change influences the production, distribution, dispersion and allergenicity of anemophilous pollen and the growth and distribution of weeds, grasses and trees that produce it. These changes in aeroallergens and subsequent human exposure could affect the prevalence and severity of allergic disorders. There is, therefore, an important public health issue that requires development and implementation of appropriate response strategies without delay.}, }
@article {pmid23223410, year = {2012}, author = {Ort, DR and Ainsworth, E}, title = {Focus on climate change.}, journal = {Plant physiology}, volume = {160}, number = {4}, pages = {1675-1676}, pmid = {23223410}, issn = {1532-2548}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid23217156, year = {2013}, author = {Prather, CM and Pelini, SL and Laws, A and Rivest, E and Woltz, M and Bloch, CP and Del Toro, I and Ho, CK and Kominoski, J and Newbold, TA and Parsons, S and Joern, A}, title = {Invertebrates, ecosystem services and climate change.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {88}, number = {2}, pages = {327-348}, doi = {10.1111/brv.12002}, pmid = {23217156}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Invertebrates/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The sustainability of ecosystem services depends on a firm understanding of both how organisms provide these services to humans and how these organisms will be altered with a changing climate. Unquestionably a dominant feature of most ecosystems, invertebrates affect many ecosystem services and are also highly responsive to climate change. However, there is still a basic lack of understanding of the direct and indirect paths by which invertebrates influence ecosystem services, as well as how climate change will affect those ecosystem services by altering invertebrate populations. This indicates a lack of communication and collaboration among scientists researching ecosystem services and climate change effects on invertebrates, and land managers and researchers from other disciplines, which becomes obvious when systematically reviewing the literature relevant to invertebrates, ecosystem services, and climate change. To address this issue, we review how invertebrates respond to climate change. We then review how invertebrates both positively and negatively influence ecosystem services. Lastly, we provide some critical future directions for research needs, and suggest ways in which managers, scientists and other researchers may collaborate to tackle the complex issue of sustaining invertebrate-mediated services under a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid23215975, year = {2012}, author = {Güizado-Rodríguez, MA and Ballesteros-Barrera, C and Casas-Andreu, G and Barradas-Miranda, VL and Téllez-Valdés, O and Salgado-Ugarte, IH}, title = {The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.}, journal = {Zoological science}, volume = {29}, number = {12}, pages = {834-843}, doi = {10.2108/zsj.29.834}, pmid = {23215975}, issn = {0289-0003}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Demography ; *Global Warming ; Lizards/*physiology ; Mexico ; }, abstract = {The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.}, }
@article {pmid23209174, year = {2013}, author = {Gienapp, P and Lof, M and Reed, TE and McNamara, J and Verhulst, S and Visser, ME}, title = {Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1610}, pages = {20120289}, pmid = {23209174}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Forecasting ; Genetic Fitness ; Models, Biological ; Ovum/physiology ; Passeriformes/genetics/*physiology ; Phenotype ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Populations need to adapt to sustained climate change, which requires micro-evolutionary change in the long term. A key question is how the rate of this micro-evolutionary change compares with the rate of environmental change, given that theoretically there is a 'critical rate of environmental change' beyond which increased maladaptation leads to population extinction. Here, we parametrize two closely related models to predict this critical rate using data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We used stochastic dynamic programming to predict changes in optimal breeding time under three different climate scenarios. Using these results we parametrized two theoretical models to predict critical rates. Results from both models agreed qualitatively in that even 'mild' rates of climate change would be close to these critical rates with respect to great tit breeding time, while for scenarios close to the upper limit of IPCC climate projections the calculated critical rates would be clearly exceeded with possible consequences for population persistence. We therefore tentatively conclude that micro-evolution, together with plasticity, would rescue only the population from mild rates of climate change, although the models make many simplifying assumptions that remain to be tested.}, }
@article {pmid23209165, year = {2013}, author = {Schiffers, K and Bourne, EC and Lavergne, S and Thuiller, W and Travis, JM}, title = {Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1610}, pages = {20120083}, pmid = {23209165}, issn = {1471-2970}, support = {281422/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Alleles ; *Biological Evolution ; Chromosomes/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Gene Flow ; Genetics, Population/methods ; *Models, Genetic ; Plants/genetics ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Selection, Genetic ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Dispersal is a key determinant of a population's evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population's evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population's evolvability under rapid environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid23209121, year = {2013}, author = {Miller, A}, title = {UN atlas links climate change to disease spread.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {185}, number = {1}, pages = {E38}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-4340}, pmid = {23209121}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {*Atlases as Topic ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Humans ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid23207497, year = {2013}, author = {Tang, R and Clark, JM and Bond, T and Graham, N and Hughes, D and Freeman, C}, title = {Assessment of potential climate change impacts on peatland dissolved organic carbon release and drinking water treatment from laboratory experiments.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {173}, number = {}, pages = {270-277}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2012.09.022}, pmid = {23207497}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Disinfectants/*toxicity ; *Drinking Water ; Ecosystem ; Risk Assessment ; Sphagnopsida/drug effects/*growth &amp; development ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*toxicity ; Water Purification/*methods ; }, abstract = {Catchments draining peat soils provide the majority of drinking water in the UK. Over the past decades, concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have increased in surface waters. Residual DOC can cause harmful carcinogenic disinfection by-products to form during water treatment processes. Increased frequency and severity of droughts combined with and increased temperatures expected as the climate changes, have potentials to change water quality. We used a novel approach to investigate links between climate change, DOC release and subsequent effects on drinking water treatment. We designed a climate manipulation experiment to simulate projected climate changes and monitored releases from peat soil and litter, then simulated coagulation used in water treatment. We showed that the 'drought' simulation was the dominant factor altering DOC release and affected the ability to remove DOC. Our results imply that future short-term drought events could have a greater impact than increased temperature on DOC treatability.}, }
@article {pmid23202833, year = {2012}, author = {Lin, YP and Hong, NM and Chiang, LC and Liu, YL and Chu, HJ}, title = {Adaptation of land-use demands to the impact of climate change on the hydrological processes of an urbanized watershed.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, pages = {4083-4102}, pmid = {23202833}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Geographic Information Systems ; *Hydrology ; *Urban Population ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region's hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region's ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functions) model is used to simulate three hydrological components, namely, runoff, groundwater and streamflow, based on various land-use scenarios under six global climate models. The land-use allocations are simulated by the CLUE-s model for the various development scenarios. The simulation results show that runoff and streamflow are strongly related to the precipitation levels predicted by different global climate models for the wet and dry seasons, but groundwater cycles are more related to land-use. The effects of climate change on groundwater and runoff can be mitigated by modifying current land-use patterns; and slowing the rate of urbanization would also reduce the impact of climate change on hydrological components. Thus, land-use adaptation on a local/regional scale provides an alternative way to reduce the impacts of global climate change on local hydrology.}, }
@article {pmid23202767, year = {2012}, author = {Chiang, LC and Chaubey, I and Hong, NM and Lin, YP and Huang, T}, title = {Implementation of BMP strategies for adaptation to climate change and land use change in a pasture-dominated watershed.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {9}, number = {10}, pages = {3654-3684}, pmid = {23202767}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Arkansas ; *Climate Change ; Lakes ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Oklahoma ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/analysis ; Water Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Implementing a suite of best management practices (BMPs) can reduce non-point source (NPS) pollutants from various land use activities. Watershed models are generally used to evaluate the effectiveness of BMP performance in improving water quality as the basis for watershed management recommendations. This study evaluates 171 management practice combinations that incorporate nutrient management, vegetated filter strips (VFS) and grazing management for their performances in improving water quality in a pasture-dominated watershed with dynamic land use changes during 1992&amp;ndash;2007 by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). These selected BMPs were further examined with future climate conditions (2010&amp;ndash;2069) downscaled from three general circulation models (GCMs) for understanding how climate change may impact BMP performance. Simulation results indicate that total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) losses increase with increasing litter application rates. Alum-treated litter applications resulted in greater TN losses, and fewer TP losses than the losses from untreated poultry litter applications. For the same litter application rates, sediment and TP losses are greater for summer applications than fall and spring applications, while TN losses are greater for fall applications. Overgrazing management resulted in the greatest sediment and phosphorus losses, and VFS is the most influential management practice in reducing pollutant losses. Simulations also indicate that climate change impacts TSS losses the most, resulting in a larger magnitude of TSS losses. However, the performance of selected BMPs in reducing TN and TP losses was more stable in future climate change conditions than in the BMP performance in the historical climate condition. We recommend that selection of BMPs to reduce TSS losses should be a priority concern when multiple uses of BMPs that benefit nutrient reductions are considered in a watershed. Therefore, the BMP combination of spring litter application, optimum grazing management and filter strip with a VFS ratio of 42 could be a promising alternative for use in mitigating future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23202687, year = {2012}, author = {Xu, Z and Sheffield, PE and Hu, W and Su, H and Yu, W and Qi, X and Tong, S}, title = {Climate change and children's health--a call for research on what works to protect children.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {3298-3316}, pmid = {23202687}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Age Factors ; Biomedical Research ; Child ; *Child Welfare ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Infant ; Male ; Sex Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting and will increasingly influence human health and wellbeing. Children are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. An extensive literature review regarding the impact of climate change on children's health was conducted in April 2012 by searching electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science, as well as relevant websites, such as IPCC and WHO. Climate change affects children's health through increased air pollution, more weather-related disasters, more frequent and intense heat waves, decreased water quality and quantity, food shortage and greater exposure to toxicants. As a result, children experience greater risk of mental disorders, malnutrition, infectious diseases, allergic diseases and respiratory diseases. Mitigation measures like reducing carbon pollution emissions, and adaptation measures such as early warning systems and post-disaster counseling are strongly needed. Future health research directions should focus on: (1) identifying whether climate change impacts on children will be modified by gender, age and socioeconomic status; (2) refining outcome measures of children's vulnerability to climate change; (3) projecting children's disease burden under climate change scenarios; (4) exploring children's disease burden related to climate change in low-income countries; and (5) identifying the most cost-effective mitigation and adaptation actions from a children's health perspective.}, }
@article {pmid23201602, year = {2013}, author = {Bryan, E and Ringler, C and Okoba, B and Roncoli, C and Silvestri, S and Herrero, M}, title = {Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {114}, number = {}, pages = {26-35}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.10.036}, pmid = {23201602}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Kenya ; Male ; Perception ; }, abstract = {Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being.}, }
@article {pmid23201184, year = {2013}, author = {Aerni, P}, title = {Why do the biotechnology and the climate change debates hardly mix? Evidence from a global stakeholder survey.}, journal = {New biotechnology}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {344-348}, doi = {10.1016/j.nbt.2012.11.005}, pmid = {23201184}, issn = {1876-4347}, mesh = {*Biotechnology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Data Collection ; Environmental Policy ; Internet ; *Policy Making ; Self-Assessment ; }, abstract = {Despite its potential to address climate change problems, the role of biotechnology is hardly ever touched upon in the global sustainability debate. We wanted to know why. For that purpose, we conducted a global online stakeholder survey on biotechnology and climate change. The relevant stakeholders and their representatives were selected by means of key informants that were familiar with either of the two debates. A self-assessment showed that a majority of respondents felt more familiar with the climate change than the biotechnology debate. Even though the survey results reveal that most respondents consider the potential of modern biotechnology to address climate change to be substantial, the policy network analysis revealed that one stakeholder who is not just considered to be relevant in both debates but also crucial in the formation of global public opinion, strongly rejects the view that biotechnology is a climate-friendly and therefore clean technology. This influential opposition seems to ensure that the biotechnology and the climate change debates do not mix.}, }
@article {pmid23197517, year = {2012}, author = {Reis, S and Grennfelt, P and Klimont, Z and Amann, M and ApSimon, H and Hettelingh, JP and Holland, M and LeGall, AC and Maas, R and Posch, M and Spranger, T and Sutton, MA and Williams, M}, title = {Atmospheric science. From acid rain to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {338}, number = {6111}, pages = {1153-1154}, doi = {10.1126/science.1226514}, pmid = {23197517}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Acid Rain/*prevention &amp; control ; *Air Pollutants ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Policy/*trends ; Europe ; *Guidelines as Topic ; *United Nations ; United States ; Vehicle Emissions/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid23197507, year = {2012}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Glaciology. Experts agree global warming is melting the world rapidly.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {338}, number = {6111}, pages = {1138}, doi = {10.1126/science.338.6111.1138}, pmid = {23197507}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ice Cover ; }, }
@article {pmid23196911, year = {2013}, author = {Stocker, TF}, title = {Climate change. The closing door of climate targets.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {339}, number = {6117}, pages = {280-282}, doi = {10.1126/science.1232468}, pmid = {23196911}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Global Warming ; Models, Theoretical ; *Vehicle Emissions ; }, }
@article {pmid23195141, year = {2013}, author = {Seidl, R and Lexer, MJ}, title = {Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {114}, number = {}, pages = {461-469}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.09.028}, pmid = {23195141}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Austria ; *Climate Change ; *Forestry ; Humans ; Social Change ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to reduce climate change impacts statistically insignificant (i.e., for approximately one third of the investigated management units of the AFF case study), fostering adaptive capacity is suggested as the preferred pathway for adaptation. We conclude that climate change adaptation needs to balance between anticipating expected future conditions and building the capacity to address unknowns and surprises.}, }
@article {pmid23189611, year = {2012}, author = {O'Reilly, J and Oreskes, N and Oppenheimer, M}, title = {The rapid disintegration of projections: the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the intergovernmental panel on climate change.}, journal = {Social studies of science}, volume = {42}, number = {5}, pages = {709-731}, doi = {10.1177/0306312712448130}, pmid = {23189611}, issn = {0306-3127}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Anthropology, Cultural ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Forecasting ; *Ice Cover ; *International Cooperation ; Models, Theoretical ; *Research Report ; }, abstract = {How and why did the scientific consensus about sea level rise due to the disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), expressed in the third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment, disintegrate on the road to the fourth? Using ethnographic interviews and analysis of IPCC documents, we trace the abrupt disintegration of the WAIS consensus. First, we provide a brief historical overview of scientific assessments of the WAIS. Second, we provide a detailed case study of the decision not to provide a WAIS prediction in the Fourth Assessment Report. Third, we discuss the implications of this outcome for the general issue of scientists and policymakers working in assessment organizations to make projections. IPCC authors were less certain about potential WAIS futures than in previous assessment reports in part because of new information, but also because of the outcome of cultural processes within the IPCC, including how people were selected for and worked together within their writing groups. It became too difficult for IPCC assessors to project the range of possible futures for WAIS due to shifts in scientific knowledge as well as in the institutions that facilitated the interpretations of this knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid23185568, year = {2012}, author = {Blennow, K and Persson, J and Tomé, M and Hanewinkel, M}, title = {Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {e50182}, pmid = {23185568}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Culture ; Decision Making ; Europe ; Humans ; Ownership ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Private Sector ; Risk Management/economics/*organization &amp; administration ; Social Perception ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.}, }
@article {pmid23180844, year = {2012}, author = {Vineis, P and Khan, A}, title = {Climate change-induced salinity threatens health.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {338}, number = {6110}, pages = {1028-1029}, doi = {10.1126/science.338.6110.1028-b}, pmid = {23180844}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Drinking Water/*chemistry ; Heart Diseases/epidemiology ; Humans ; Hypertension/epidemiology ; Male ; *Public Health ; *Salinity ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid23179509, year = {2013}, author = {Falzon, C and Fabri, SG and Frysinger, S}, title = {Integrated waste management as a climate change stabilisation wedge for the Maltese islands.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {73-79}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X12468198}, pmid = {23179509}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Gases ; Malta ; Models, Theoretical ; Recycling ; Refuse Disposal/methods ; Waste Management/*methods ; }, abstract = {The continuous increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions occurring since the Industrial Revolution is offering significant ecological challenges to Earth. These emissions are leading to climate changes which bring about extensive damage to communities, ecosystems and resources. The analysis in this article is focussed on the waste sector within the Maltese islands, which is the largest greenhouse gas emitter in the archipelago following the energy and transportation sectors. This work shows how integrated waste management, based on a life cycle assessment methodology, acts as an effective stabilisation wedge strategy for climate change. Ten different scenarios applicable to the Maltese municipal solid waste management sector are analysed. It is shown that the scenario that is most coherent with the stabilisation wedges strategy for the Maltese islands consists of 50% landfilling, 30% mechanical biological treatment and 20% recyclable waste export for recycling. It is calculated that 16.6 Mt less CO2-e gases would be emitted over 50 years by means of this integrated waste management stabilisation wedge when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. These scientific results provide evidence in support of policy development in Malta that is implemented through legislation, economic instruments and other applicable tools.}, }
@article {pmid23178843, year = {2013}, author = {Gohari, A and Eslamian, S and Abedi-Koupaei, J and Massah Bavani, A and Wang, D and Madani, K}, title = {Climate change impacts on crop production in Iran's Zayandeh-Rud River Basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {442}, number = {}, pages = {405-419}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.10.029}, pmid = {23178843}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Iran ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers ; Water Supply/*standards ; }, abstract = {This study evaluates climate change impacts on crop production and water productivity of four major crops (wheat, barley, rice, and corn) in Iran's Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. Multi-model ensemble scenarios are used to deal with uncertainties in climate change projections for the study period (2015-2044). On average, monthly temperature will increase by 1.1 to 1.5°C under climate change. Monthly precipitation changes may be positive or negative in different months of the year. Nevertheless, on the annual basis, precipitation will decrease by 11 to 31% with climate change. While warming can potentially shorten the crop growth period, crop production and water productivity of all crops are expected to decrease due to lower precipitation and higher water requirements under higher temperature. Out of the four studied crops, rice and corn are more vulnerable to climate change due to their high irrigation water demand. So, their continued production can be compromised under climate change. This finding is of particular importance, given the locally high economic and food value of these crops in central Iran.}, }
@article {pmid23178762, year = {2013}, author = {Deák, AJ and Makra, L and Matyasovszky, I and Csépe, Z and Muladi, B}, title = {Climate sensitivity of allergenic taxa in Central Europe associated with new climate change related forces.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {442}, number = {}, pages = {36-47}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.10.067}, pmid = {23178762}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects/*isolation &amp; purification ; Air Pollution/*analysis/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Allergens/adverse effects/*isolation &amp; purification ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Hungary ; Pollen/adverse effects/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The aim of the study was to analyse trends of the pollen season with its duration, start and end dates, as well as trends of the annual total pollen count and annual peak pollen concentration for the Szeged agglomeration in Southern Hungary. The data set covered an 11-year period (1997-2007) that included eight taxa and seven daily climate variables. Trend analysis was performed on both annual and daily bases. Trend analysis on a daily basis is a new approach that provides information on the annual cycles of the trends. To quantify the strength of the relationship between the annual cycle of the slope of a pollen concentration trend and the annual cycles of the slopes of the climate variable trends, an association measure and a multiple association measure are introduced. Individual taxa were sorted into three categories according to their climate sensitivities. These were compared with two novel climate change-related forces, namely risk potential and expansion potential due to the climate change. The total annual pollen counts indicated significant trends for 4 taxa and 3 of these 4 trends increased on a daily basis. At the same time, significant changes were detected for the pollen season characteristics of three taxa. The association measures performed well when compared to the climate change-related forces. Significant changes in pollen season characteristics were also in accordance with the risk potential and expansion potential due to the climate change. A novel procedure was applied to separate the effects of the past and current weather conditions that influence the current Ambrosia pollen concentrations. The potential effect of land use changes on pollen release of the given taxa was also discussed using the CORINE Land Cover Database.}, }
@article {pmid23176586, year = {2012}, author = {Pfenninger, M and Bálint, M and Pauls, SU}, title = {Methodological framework for projecting the potential loss of intraspecific genetic diversity due to global climate change.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {224}, pmid = {23176586}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Animals ; Argentina ; *Biodiversity ; Chile ; *Climate Change ; Cluster Analysis ; Ecosystem ; Feasibility Studies ; *Genetic Variation ; Geography ; Haplotypes ; Insecta/classification/genetics/growth &amp; development ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography/*methods ; Reproducibility of Results ; Snails/classification/genetics/growth &amp; development ; Switzerland ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: While research on the impact of global climate change (GCC) on ecosystems and species is flourishing, a fundamental component of biodiversity - molecular variation - has not yet received its due attention in such studies. Here we present a methodological framework for projecting the loss of intraspecific genetic diversity due to GCC.<br><br>METHODS: The framework consists of multiple steps that combines 1) hierarchical genetic clustering methods to define comparable units of inference, 2) species accumulation curves (SAC) to infer sampling completeness, and 3) species distribution modelling (SDM) to project the genetic diversity loss under GCC. We suggest procedures for existing data sets as well as specifically designed studies. We illustrate the approach with two worked examples from a land snail (Trochulus villosus) and a caddisfly (Smicridea (S.) mucronata).<br><br>RESULTS: Sampling completeness was diagnosed on the third coarsest haplotype clade level for T. villosus and the second coarsest for S. mucronata. For both species, a substantial species range loss was projected under the chosen climate scenario. However, despite substantial differences in data set quality concerning spatial sampling and sampling depth, no loss of haplotype clades due to GCC was predicted for either species.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The suggested approach presents a feasible method to tap the rich resources of existing phylogeographic data sets and guide the design and analysis of studies explicitly designed to estimate the impact of GCC on a currently still neglected level of biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid23011294, year = {2012}, author = {Villela, DM and Mattos, EA and Pinto, AS and Vieira, SA and Martinelli, LA}, title = {Carbon and nitrogen stock and fluxes in coastal Atlantic Forest of southeast Brazil: potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {72}, number = {3 Suppl}, pages = {633-642}, doi = {10.1590/s1519-69842012000400003}, pmid = {23011294}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {*Biomass ; Brazil ; Carbon/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Models, Biological ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; *Rain ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; Trees/*metabolism ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The Atlantic Forest is one of the most important biomes of Brazil. Originally covering approximately 1.5 million of km[2], today this area has been reduced to 12% of its original size. Climate changes may alter the structure and the functioning of this tropical forest. Here we explore how increases in temperature and changes in precipitation distribution could affect dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in coastal Atlantic Forest of the southeast region of Brazil The main conclusion of this article is that the coastal Atlantic Forest has high stocks of carbon and nitrogen above ground, and especially, below ground. An increase in temperature may transform these forests from important carbon sinks to carbon sources by increasing loss of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. However, this conclusion should be viewed with caution because it is based on limited information. Therefore, more studies are urgently needed to enable us to make more accurate predictions.}, }
@article {pmid23175421, year = {2012}, author = {Wiwanitkit, V}, title = {Climate change and leptospirosis.}, journal = {Ciencia &amp; saude coletiva}, volume = {17}, number = {12}, pages = {3451; author reply 3451}, doi = {10.1590/s1413-81232012001200030}, pmid = {23175421}, issn = {1678-4561}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Leptospirosis/*epidemiology ; Sanitation/*standards ; *Urban Health ; }, }
@article {pmid23173462, year = {2012}, author = {Sui, Y and Huang, WH and Yang, XG and Li, MS}, title = {[Characteristics and adaption of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of global climate change. I. Change characteristics of precipitation resource].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {7}, pages = {1875-1882}, pmid = {23173462}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*physiology ; *Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Rain ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1959-2008 precipitation data from 262 meteorological stations in southern China, this paper analyzed the change characteristics of seasonal precipitation trend coefficient, precipitation variability, and annual and decadal precipitation standardized anomalies in this region. In the study period, there was a great difference among the trend of quarter precipitation. In most parts of the region, the precipitation in spring and autumn presented a decreasing trend but that in summer and winter was in adverse; only in southwest part, a slightly different trend was observed. In the whole region, the probability of spring drought decreased, but that of summer drought, autumn drought, and winter drought increased. Spring drought often occurred in south and southwest parts, summer drought and autumn drought often occurred in south part and the middle, lower reaches of Yangtze River, and winter drought expanded from south part to south part and the middle, lower reaches of Yangtze River. The precipitation in spring and autumn was below the normal level after the 1980s, while that in summer and winter was below the normal level before the 1990s, above the normal level in the 1990s, and below the normal level since the 21st century. The decadal change of the seasonal precipitation standardized anomaly in each part of the region was basically consistent, i. e., decreased in autumn and increased in summer and winter.}, }
@article {pmid23173443, year = {2012}, author = {He, JJ and Peng, XY and Chen, ZJ and Cui, MX and Zhang, XL and Zhou, CH}, title = {[Responses of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China to climate change and elevated CO2: a simulation based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {7}, pages = {1733-1742}, pmid = {23173443}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Pinus/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Plant Stems/*anatomy &amp; histology ; }, abstract = {Based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data, a modeling study was conducted to estimate the dynamic changes of the net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China in 1952-2008, and explore the responses of the radial growth and NPP to regional climate warming as well as the dynamics of the NPP in the future climate change scenarios. The simulation results indicated the annual NPP of the P. tabulaeformis ecosystem in 1952-2008 fluctuated from 244.12 to 645.31 g C x m(-2) x a(-1), with a mean value of 418.6 g C x m(-2) x a(-1) The mean air temperature in May-June and the precipitation from previous August to current July were the main factors limiting the radial growth of P. tabulaeformis and the NPP of P. tabulaeformis ecosystem. In the study period, both the radial growth and the NPP presented a decreasing trend due to the regional warming and drying climate condition. In the future climate scenarios, the NPP would have positive responses to the increase of air temperature, precipitation, and their combination. The elevated CO2 would benefit the increase of the NPP, and the increment would be about 16.1% due to the CO2 fertilization. At both ecosystem and regional scales, the tree-ring data would be an ideal proxy to predict the ecosystem dynamic change, and could be used to validate and calibrate the process-based ecosystem models including BIOME-BGC.}, }
@article {pmid23173048, year = {2012}, author = {Yu, H and Xu, J and Okuto, E and Luedeling, E}, title = {Seasonal response of grasslands to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {e49230}, pmid = {23173048}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; Tibet ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Monitoring vegetation dynamics and their responses to climate change has been the subject of considerable research. This paper aims to detect change trends in grassland activity on the Tibetan Plateau between 1982 and 2006 and relate these to changes in climate.<br><br>Grassland activity was analyzed by evaluating remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data collected at 15-day intervals between 1982 and 2006. The timings of vegetation stages (start of green-up, beginning of the growing season, plant maturity, start of senescence and end of the growing season) were assessed using the NDVI ratio method. Mean NDVI values were determined for major vegetation stages (green-up, fast growth, maturity and senescence). All vegetation variables were linked with datasets of monthly temperature and precipitation, and correlations between variables were established using Partial Least Squares regression. Most parts of the Tibetan Plateau showed significantly increasing temperatures, as well as clear advances in late season phenological stages by several weeks. Rainfall trends and significant long-term changes in early season phenology occurred on small parts of the plateau. Vegetation activity increased significantly for all vegetation stages. Most of these changes were related to increasing temperatures during the growing season and in some cases during the previous winter. Precipitation effects appeared less pronounced. Warming thus appears to have shortened the growing season, while increasing vegetation activity.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Shortening of the growing season despite a longer thermally favorable period implies that vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau is unable to exploit additional thermal resources availed by climate change. Ecosystem composition may no longer be well attuned to the local temperature regime, which has changed rapidly over the past three decades. This apparent lag of the vegetation assemblage behind changes in climate should be taken into account when projecting the impacts of climate change on ecosystem processes.}, }
@article {pmid23171384, year = {2013}, author = {Perry, LG and Shafroth, PB and Blumenthal, DM and Morgan, JA and LeCain, DR}, title = {Elevated CO2 does not offset greater water stress predicted under climate change for native and exotic riparian plants.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {197}, number = {2}, pages = {532-543}, doi = {10.1111/nph.12030}, pmid = {23171384}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Biomass ; Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; Carbon Isotopes ; *Climate Change ; Dehydration ; *Ecosystem ; Humidity ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Plant Roots/drug effects/growth &amp; development ; Plant Shoots/drug effects/growth &amp; development ; Seedlings/drug effects/growth &amp; development ; Soil/chemistry ; Trees/anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Water/chemistry ; }, abstract = {In semiarid western North American riparian ecosystems, increased drought and lower streamflows under climate change may reduce plant growth and recruitment, and favor drought-tolerant exotic species over mesic native species. We tested whether elevated atmospheric CO2 might ameliorate these effects by improving plant water-use efficiency. We examined the effects of CO2 and water availability on seedlings of two native (Populus deltoides spp. monilifera, Salix exigua) and three exotic (Elaeagnus angustifolia, Tamarix spp., Ulmus pumila) western North American riparian species in a CO2-controlled glasshouse, using 1-m-deep pots with different water-table decline rates. Low water availability reduced seedling biomass by 70-97%, and hindered the native species more than the exotics. Elevated CO2 increased biomass by 15%, with similar effects on natives and exotics. Elevated CO2 increased intrinsic water-use efficiency (Δ[13]C(leaf)), but did not increase biomass more in drier treatments than wetter treatments. The moderate positive effects of elevated CO2 on riparian seedlings are unlikely to counteract the large negative effects of increased aridity projected under climate change. Our results suggest that increased aridity will reduce riparian seedling growth despite elevated CO2, and will reduce growth more for native Salix and Populus than for drought-tolerant exotic species.}, }
@article {pmid23170220, year = {2012}, author = {Santos, M and Castañeda, LE and Rezende, EL}, title = {Keeping pace with climate change: what is wrong with the evolutionary potential of upper thermal limits?.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {11}, pages = {2866-2880}, pmid = {23170220}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The potential of populations to evolve in response to ongoing climate change is partly conditioned by the presence of heritable genetic variation in relevant physiological traits. Recent research suggests that Drosophila melanogaster exhibits negligible heritability, hence little evolutionary potential in heat tolerance when measured under slow heating rates that presumably mimic conditions in nature. Here, we study the effects of directional selection for increased heat tolerance using Drosophila as a model system. We combine a physiological model to simulate thermal tolerance assays with multilocus models for quantitative traits. Our simulations show that, whereas the evolutionary response of the genetically determined upper thermal limit (CTmax) is independent of methodological context, the response in knockdown temperatures varies with measurement protocol and is substantially (up to 50%) lower than for CTmax. Realized heritabilities of knockdown temperature may grossly underestimate the true heritability of CTmax. For instance, assuming that the true heritability of CTmax in the base population is h(2) = 0.25, realized heritabilities of knockdown temperature are around 0.08-0.16 depending on heating rate. These effects are higher in slow heating assays, suggesting that flawed methodology might explain the apparently limited evolutionary potential of cosmopolitan D. melanogaster.}, }
@article {pmid23164541, year = {2013}, author = {Taylor, S and Kumar, L}, title = {Potential distribution of an invasive species under climate change scenarios using CLIMEX and soil drainage: a case study of Lantana camara L. in Queensland, Australia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {114}, number = {}, pages = {414-422}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.10.039}, pmid = {23164541}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Geographic Information Systems ; *Introduced Species ; *Lantana ; *Models, Biological ; Queensland ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity which may be intensified by the effects of climate change, particularly if favourable climate conditions allow invasives to spread to new areas. This research explores the combined effects of climate change and soil drainage on the potential future distribution of Lantana camara L. (lantana) in Queensland, Australia. Lantana is an invasive woody shrub species that has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide. CLIMEX was used to develop a process-based niche model of lantana to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of climate change. These models were run with the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Further refinements of the potential distributions were carried out through the integration of fine scale soil drainage data in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results from both GCMs show a progressive reduction in climatic suitability for lantana in Queensland. The MIROC-H projects a larger area as remaining at risk of lantana invasion in 2100 compared to CSIRO-Mk3.0. Inclusion of soil drainage data results in a more refined distribution. Overall results show a dramatic reduction in potential distribution of lantana in Queensland in the long term (2100). However, in the short term (2030), areas such as South East Queensland and the Wet Tropics, both regions of significant ecological importance, remain at risk of invasion consistently under both GCMs and with both the climate only and climate and soil drainage models. Management of lantana in these regions will need to be prioritized to protect environmental assets of ecological significance.}, }
@article {pmid23161971, year = {2012}, author = {Qiu, J}, title = {Climate change. Slip sliding away.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {338}, number = {6109}, pages = {881}, doi = {10.1126/science.338.6109.881}, pmid = {23161971}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Ice Cover ; *Islands ; }, }
@article {pmid23161970, year = {2012}, author = {Qiu, J}, title = {Climate change. Winds of change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {338}, number = {6109}, pages = {879-881}, doi = {10.1126/science.338.6109.879}, pmid = {23161970}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Global Warming ; *Ice Cover ; Spheniscidae/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid23161373, year = {2013}, author = {Landis, WG and Durda, JL and Brooks, ML and Chapman, PM and Menzie, CA and Stahl, RG and Stauber, JL}, title = {Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {79-92}, pmid = {23161373}, issn = {1552-8618}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Exposure/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Environmental Pollutants/*toxicity ; Humans ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process.}, }
@article {pmid23160860, year = {2013}, author = {Patz, JA and Hahn, MB}, title = {Climate change and human health: a One Health approach.}, journal = {Current topics in microbiology and immunology}, volume = {366}, number = {}, pages = {141-171}, doi = {10.1007/82_2012_274}, pmid = {23160860}, issn = {0070-217X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Reservoirs ; Disease Vectors ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change adds complexity and uncertainty to human health issues such as emerging infectious diseases, food security, and national sustainability planning that intensify the importance of interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Collaboration between veterinary, medical, and public health professionals to understand the ecological interactions and reactions to flux in a system can facilitate clearer understanding of climate change impacts on environmental, animal, and human health. Here we present a brief introduction to climate science and projections for the next century and a review of current knowledge on the impacts of climate-driven environmental change on human health. We then turn to the links between ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change and health. The literature on climate impacts on biological systems is rich in both content and historical data, but the connections between these changes and human health is less understood. We discuss five mechanisms by which climate changes impacts on biological systems will be felt by the human population: Modifications in Vector, Reservoir, and Pathogen Lifecycles; Diseases of Domestic and Wild Animals and Plants; Disruption of Synchrony Between Interacting Species; Trophic Cascades; and Alteration or Destruction of Habitat. Each species responds to environmental changes differently, and in order to predict the movement of disease through ecosystems, we have to rely on expertise from the fields of veterinary, medical, and public health, and these health professionals must take into account the dynamic nature of ecosystems in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid23160541, year = {2013}, author = {Husaini, AM and Tuteja, N}, title = {Biotech crops: imperative for achieving the millenium development goals and sustainability of agriculture in the climate change era.}, journal = {GM crops &amp; food}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.4161/gmcr.22748}, pmid = {23160541}, issn = {2164-5701}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Biotechnology/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Crops, Agricultural/*genetics/*growth &amp; development ; Food ; *Goals ; Plants, Genetically Modified ; }, abstract = {Biotechnological intervention in the development of crops has opened new vistas in agriculture. Central to the accomplishment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), biotech-agriculture is essential in meeting these targets. Biotech crops have already made modest contributions toward ensuring food and nutrition security by reducing losses and increasing productivity, with less pesticide input. These crops could help address some of the major challenges in agriculture-based economies created by climate change. Projections of global climate change expect the concentration of greenhouse gases to increase, aridization of the environment to increase, temperature fluctuations to occur sharply and frequently, and spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall to be disturbed-all of which will increase abiotic stress-related challenges to crops. Countering these challenges and to meet the food requirement of the ever-increasing world population (expected to reach 9 billion by 2030) we need to (1) develop and use biotech crops for mitigating adverse climatic changes; (2) develop biotech crops resilient to adverse environmental conditions; and (3) address the issues/non-issues raised by NGO's and educate the masses about the benefits of biotech crops.}, }
@article {pmid23157563, year = {2013}, author = {Molnár, PK and Kutz, SJ and Hoar, BM and Dobson, AP}, title = {Metabolic approaches to understanding climate change impacts on seasonal host-macroparasite dynamics.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {9-21}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12022}, pmid = {23157563}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; *Metabolism ; *Models, Biological ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter the dynamics of infectious diseases around the globe. Predictive models remain elusive due to the complexity of host-parasite systems and insufficient data describing how environmental conditions affect various system components. Here, we link host-macroparasite models with the Metabolic Theory of Ecology, providing a mechanistic framework that allows integrating multiple nonlinear environmental effects to estimate parasite fitness under novel conditions. The models allow determining the fundamental thermal niche of a parasite, and thus, whether climate change leads to range contraction or may permit a range expansion. Applying the models to seasonal environments, and using an arctic nematode with an endotherm host for illustration, we show that climate warming can split a continuous spring-to-fall transmission season into two separate transmission seasons with altered timings. Although the models are strategic and most suitable to evaluate broad-scale patterns of climate change impacts, close correspondence between model predictions and empirical data indicates model applicability also at the species level. As the application of Metabolic Theory considerably aids the a priori estimation of model parameters, even in data-sparse systems, we suggest that the presented approach could provide a framework for understanding and predicting climatic impacts for many host-parasite systems worldwide.}, }
@article {pmid23153166, year = {2013}, author = {Macpherson, C and Akpinar-Elci, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change on Caribbean life.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {103}, number = {1}, pages = {e6}, pmid = {23153166}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Population Groups ; }, }
@article {pmid23153137, year = {2013}, author = {Ruwoldt, G}, title = {Food insecurity and climate change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {103}, number = {1}, pages = {e1}, pmid = {23153137}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Food Supply ; Humans ; *Indians, North American ; }, }
@article {pmid23153136, year = {2013}, author = {Dodge, N}, title = {Effect of climate change and food insecurity on low-income households.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {103}, number = {1}, pages = {e4}, pmid = {23153136}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {Female ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Immune System/*physiology ; Inflammation/*blood ; Male ; }, }
@article {pmid23153132, year = {2013}, author = {Husband, A}, title = {Climate change and the role of food price in determining obesity risk.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {103}, number = {1}, pages = {e2}, pmid = {23153132}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {Female ; Food Supply/*economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Male ; Obesity/*epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid23152836, year = {2012}, author = {Tablado, Z and Revilla, E}, title = {Contrasting effects of climate change on rabbit populations through reproduction.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {e48988}, pmid = {23152836}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animals ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Female ; Geography ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Rabbits ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season.<br><br>We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects.}, }
@article {pmid23151970, year = {2013}, author = {Beschta, RL and Donahue, DL and DellaSala, DA and Rhodes, JJ and Karr, JR and O'Brien, MH and Fleischner, TL and Deacon Williams, C}, title = {Adapting to climate change on Western public lands: addressing the ecological effects of domestic, wild, and feral ungulates.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {51}, number = {2}, pages = {474-491}, pmid = {23151970}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects public land ecosystems and services throughout the American West and these effects are projected to intensify. Even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, adaptation strategies for public lands are needed to reduce anthropogenic stressors of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and to help native species and ecosystems survive in an altered environment. Historical and contemporary livestock production-the most widespread and long-running commercial use of public lands-can alter vegetation, soils, hydrology, and wildlife species composition and abundances in ways that exacerbate the effects of climate change on these resources. Excess abundance of native ungulates (e.g., deer or elk) and feral horses and burros add to these impacts. Although many of these consequences have been studied for decades, the ongoing and impending effects of ungulates in a changing climate require new management strategies for limiting their threats to the long-term supply of ecosystem services on public lands. Removing or reducing livestock across large areas of public land would alleviate a widely recognized and long-term stressor and make these lands less susceptible to the effects of climate change. Where livestock use continues, or where significant densities of wild or feral ungulates occur, management should carefully document the ecological, social, and economic consequences (both costs and benefits) to better ensure management that minimizes ungulate impacts to plant and animal communities, soils, and water resources. Reestablishing apex predators in large, contiguous areas of public land may help mitigate any adverse ecological effects of wild ungulates.}, }
@article {pmid23151318, year = {2012}, author = {Krug, J and Koehl, M and Kownatzki, D}, title = {Revaluing unmanaged forests for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {11}, pmid = {23151318}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Unmanaged or old-growth forests are of paramount importance for carbon sequestration and thus for the mitigation of climate change among further implications, e.g. biodiversity aspects. Still, the importance of those forests for climate change mitigation compared to managed forests is under controversial debate. We evaluate the adequacy of referring to CO2 flux measurements alone and include external impacts on growth (nitrogen immissions, increasing temperatures, CO2 enrichment, changed precipitation patterns) for an evaluation of central European forests in this context.<br><br>RESULTS: We deduce that the use of CO2 flux measurements alone does not allow conclusions on a superiority of unmanaged to managed forests for mitigation goals. This is based on the critical consideration of uncertainties and the application of system boundaries. Furthermore, the consideration of wood products for material and energetic substitution obviously overrules the mitigation potential of unmanaged forests. Moreover, impacts of nitrogen immissions, CO2 enrichment of the atmosphere, increasing temperatures and changed precipitation patterns obviously lead to a meaningful increase in growth, even in forests of higher age.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: An impact of unmanaged forests on climate change mitigation cannot be valued by CO2 flux measurements alone. Further research is needed on cause and effect relationships between management practices and carbon stocks in different compartments of forest ecosystems in order to account for human-induced changes. Unexpected growth rates in old-growth forests - managed or not - can obviously be related to external impacts and additionally to management impacts. This should lead to the reconsideration of forest management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid23150088, year = {2014}, author = {Cheung, CS and Hart, MA}, title = {Climate change and thermal comfort in Hong Kong.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {58}, number = {2}, pages = {137-148}, pmid = {23150088}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Air Movements ; *Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology/physiopathology ; Hong Kong/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Models, Statistical ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors ; *Thermosensing ; }, abstract = {Thermal comfort is a major issue in cities and it is expected to change in the future due to the changing climate. The objective of this paper is to use the universal thermal comfort index (UTCI) to compare the outdoor thermal comfort in Hong Kong in the past (1971-2000) and the future (2046-2065 and 2081-2100). The future climate of Hong Kong was determined by the general circulation model (GCM) simulations of future climate scenarios (A1B and B1) established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Three GCMs were chosen, GISS-ER, GFDL-CM2.1 and MRI-CGCM2.3.2, based on their performance in simulating past climate. Through a statistical downscaling procedure, the future climatic variables were transferred to the local scale. The UTCI is calculated by four predicted climate variables: air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and solar radiation. After a normalisation procedure, future UTCI profiles for the urban area of Hong Kong were created. Comparing the past UTCI (calculated by observation data) and future UTCI, all three GCMs predicted that the future climate scenarios have a higher mode and a higher maximum value. There is a shift from 'No Thermal Stress' toward 'Moderate Heat Stress' and 'Strong Heat Stress' during the period 2046-2065, becoming more severe for the later period (2081-2100). Comparing the two scenarios, B1 exhibited similar projections in the two time periods whereas for A1B there was a significant difference, with both the mode and maximum increasing by 2°C from 2046-2065 to 2081-2100.}, }
@article {pmid23147420, year = {2013}, author = {Balbus, JM and Boxall, AB and Fenske, RA and McKone, TE and Zeise, L}, title = {Implications of global climate change for the assessment and management of human health risks of chemicals in the natural environment.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {62-78}, pmid = {23147420}, issn = {1552-8618}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Environmental Exposure/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Pollutants/analysis/*toxicity ; Humans ; Models, Chemical ; Risk ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes.}, }
@article {pmid23147390, year = {2013}, author = {Moe, SJ and De Schamphelaere, K and Clements, WH and Sorensen, MT and Van den Brink, PJ and Liess, M}, title = {Combined and interactive effects of global climate change and toxicants on populations and communities.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {49-61}, pmid = {23147390}, issn = {1552-8618}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Exposure/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Pollutants/*toxicity ; Environmental Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Food Chain ; Humans ; Models, Chemical ; Reproduction ; Risk Assessment ; Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Increased temperature and other environmental effects of global climate change (GCC) have documented impacts on many species (e.g., polar bears, amphibians, coral reefs) as well as on ecosystem processes and species interactions (e.g., the timing of predator-prey interactions). A challenge for ecotoxicologists is to predict how joint effects of climatic stress and toxicants measured at the individual level (e.g., reduced survival and reproduction) will be manifested at the population level (e.g., population growth rate, extinction risk) and community level (e.g., species richness, food-web structure). The authors discuss how population- and community-level responses to toxicants under GCC are likely to be influenced by various ecological mechanisms. Stress due to GCC may reduce the potential for resistance to and recovery from toxicant exposure. Long-term toxicant exposure can result in acquired tolerance to this stressor at the population or community level, but an associated cost of tolerance may be the reduced potential for tolerance to subsequent climatic stress (or vice versa). Moreover, GCC can induce large-scale shifts in community composition, which may affect the vulnerability of communities to other stressors. Ecological modeling based on species traits (representing life-history traits, population vulnerability, sensitivity to toxicants, and sensitivity to climate change) can be a promising approach for predicting combined impacts of GCC and toxicants on populations and communities.}, }
@article {pmid23146578, year = {2013}, author = {Gillson, L and Dawson, TP and Jack, S and McGeoch, MA}, title = {Accommodating climate change contingencies in conservation strategy.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {135-142}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2012.10.008}, pmid = {23146578}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Models, Theoretical ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Species ranges are seldom at equilibrium with climate, because several interacting factors determine distribution, including demographic processes, dispersal, land use, disturbance (e.g., fire), and biotic interactions. Conservation strategies in a changing climate therefore cannot be based only on predicted climate-driven range shifts. Here, we explore conservation and management options in a framework for prioritizing landscapes based on two 'axes of concern': landscape conservation capacity attributes (percentage of protected area, connectivity, and condition of the matrix) and vulnerability to climate change (climate change velocity and topographic variation). Nine other conservation actions are also presented, from understanding and predicting to planning and managing for climate change. We emphasize the need for adaptation and resilience in populations, ecosystems, and the conservation environment itself.}, }
@article {pmid23146244, year = {2013}, author = {Smith, P and Gregory, PJ}, title = {Climate change and sustainable food production.}, journal = {The Proceedings of the Nutrition Society}, volume = {72}, number = {1}, pages = {21-28}, doi = {10.1017/S0029665112002832}, pmid = {23146244}, issn = {1475-2719}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Diet ; Environment ; Food Preferences ; *Food Supply ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Nutritional Requirements ; }, abstract = {One of the greatest challenges we face in the twenty-first century is to sustainably feed nine to ten billion people by 2050 while at the same time reducing environmental impact (e.g. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biodiversity loss, land use change and loss of ecosystem services). To this end, food security must be delivered. According to the United Nations definition, 'food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life'. At the same time as delivering food security, we must also reduce the environmental impact of food production. Future climate change will make an impact upon food production. On the other hand, agriculture contributes up to about 30% of the anthropogenic GHG emissions that drive climate change. The aim of this review is to outline some of the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture, the mitigation measures available within agriculture to reduce GHG emissions and outlines the very significant challenge of feeding nine to ten billion people sustainably under a future climate, with reduced emissions of GHG. Each challenge is in itself enormous, requiring solutions that co-deliver on all aspects. We conclude that the status quo is not an option, and tinkering with the current production systems is unlikely to deliver the food and ecosystems services we need in the future; radical changes in production and consumption are likely to be required over the coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid23146092, year = {2012}, author = {Meyer, S and Bright, RM and Fischer, D and Schulz, H and Glaser, B}, title = {Albedo impact on the suitability of biochar systems to mitigate global warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {46}, number = {22}, pages = {12726-12734}, doi = {10.1021/es302302g}, pmid = {23146092}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Charcoal/*chemistry ; Climate Change ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation/*methods ; Germany ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Heating ; *Sunlight ; }, abstract = {Biochar application to agricultural soils can change the surface albedo which could counteract the climate mitigation benefit of biochar systems. However, the size of this impact has not yet been quantified. Based on empirical albedo measurements and literature data of arable soils mixed with biochar, a model for annual vegetation cover development based on satellite data and an assessment of the annual development of surface humidity, an average mean annual albedo reduction of 0.05 has been calculated for applying 30-32 Mg ha(-1) biochar on a test field near Bayreuth, Germany. The impact of biochar production and application on the carbon cycle and on the soil albedo was integrated into the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of a modeled pyrolysis based biochar system via the computation of global warming potential (GWP) characterization factors. The analysis resulted in a reduction of the overall climate mitigation benefit of biochar systems by 13-22% due to the albedo change as compared to an analysis which disregards the albedo effect. Comparing the use of the same quantity of biomass in a biochar system to a bioenergy district heating system which replaces natural gas combustion, bioenergy heating systems achieve 99-119% of the climate benefit of biochar systems according to the model calculation.}, }
@article {pmid23145333, year = {2012}, author = {Woesik, R and Houk, P and Isechal, AL and Idechong, JW and Victor, S and Golbuu, Y}, title = {Climate-change refugia in the sheltered bays of Palau: analogs of future reefs.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {10}, pages = {2474-2484}, pmid = {23145333}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Coral bleaching and mortality are predicted to increase as climate change-induced thermal-stress events become more frequent. Although many studies document coral bleaching and mortality patterns, few studies have examined deviations from the expected positive relationships among thermal stress, coral bleaching, and coral mortality. This study examined the response of >30,000 coral colonies at 80 sites in Palau, during a regional thermal-stress event in 2010. We sought to determine the spatial and taxonomic nature of bleaching and examine whether any habitats were comparatively resistant to thermal stress. Bleaching was most severe in the northwestern lagoon, in accordance with satellite-derived maximum temperatures and anomalous temperatures above the long-term averages. Pocillopora populations suffered the most extensive bleaching and the highest mortality. However, in the bays where temperatures were higher than elsewhere, bleaching and mortality were low. The coral-community composition, constant exposure to high temperatures, and high vertical attenuation of light caused by naturally high suspended particulate matter buffered the corals in bays from the 2010 regional thermal-stress event. Yet, nearshore reefs are also most vulnerable to land-use change. Therefore, nearshore reefs should be given high conservation status because they provide refugia for coral populations as the oceans continue to warm.}, }
@article {pmid23144840, year = {2012}, author = {Davis, AP and Gole, TW and Baena, S and Moat, J}, title = {The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {e47981}, pmid = {23144840}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Area Under Curve ; *Climate Change ; *Coffea ; *Coffee ; Ecosystem ; Ethiopia ; Kenya ; Models, Biological ; Sudan ; }, abstract = {Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020-2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies 'core localities' that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23144746, year = {2012}, author = {Oki, M and Yamamoto, T}, title = {Climate change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity in the transmission threshold of dengue.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {10}, pages = {e48258}, pmid = {23144746}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Aedes/growth &amp; development/immunology/virology ; *Algorithms ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology/immunology/*transmission ; Dengue Virus/classification/immunology ; *Epidemics ; Female ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development/immunology/virology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Seroepidemiologic Studies ; Serotyping ; Singapore/epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R(0)), and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP]) is the critical determinant of the R(0) value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist-a state known as hyperendemicity-and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R(0). We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: We designed a mathematical model of dengue transmission dynamics. An epidemic was defined as a 10% increase in seroprevalence in a year, and the MPP that triggered an epidemic was defined as the threshold MPP. Simulations were conducted in Singapore based on the recorded temperatures from 1980 to 2009 The threshold MPP was estimated with the effect of (1) temperature only; (2) temperature and fluctuation of population immunity; and (3) temperature, fluctuation of immunity, and hyperendemicity. When only the effect of temperature was considered, the threshold MPP was estimated to be 0.53 in the 1980s and 0.46 in the 2000s, a decrease of 13.2%. When the fluctuation of population immunity and hyperendemicity were considered in the model, the threshold MPP decreased by 38.7%, from 0.93 to 0.57, from the 1980s to the 2000s.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The threshold MPP was underestimated if population immunity was not considered and overestimated if hyperendemicity was not included in the simulations. In addition to temperature, these factors are particularly important when quantifying the threshold MPP for the purpose of setting goals for vector control in dengue-endemic areas.}, }
@article {pmid23144234, year = {2012}, author = {Limb, M}, title = {Climate change experts need funds to research vital questions, conference hears.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {345}, number = {}, pages = {e7649}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.e7649}, pmid = {23144234}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Research/*economics ; }, }
@article {pmid23141868, year = {2013}, author = {Lemieux, CJ and Thompson, JL and Dawson, J and Schuster, RM}, title = {Natural resource manager perceptions of agency performance on climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {114}, number = {}, pages = {178-189}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.09.014}, pmid = {23141868}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Government Agencies/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Perception ; }, abstract = {An important precursor to the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies is to understand the perceived capacity to implement and operationalize such strategies. Utilizing an importance-performance analysis (IPA) evaluation framework, this article presents a comparative case study of federal and state land and natural resource manager perceptions of agency performance on factors influencing adaptive capacity in two U.S. regions (northern Colorado and southwestern South Dakota). Results revealed several important findings with substantial management implications. First, none of the managers ranked the adaptive capacity factors as a low priority. Second, managers held the perception that their agencies were performing either neutrally or poorly on most factors influencing adaptive capacity. Third, gap analysis revealed that significant improvements are required to facilitate optimal agency functioning when dealing with climate change-related management issues. Overall, results suggest that a host of institutional and policy-oriented (e.g., lack of clear mandate to adapt to climate change), financial and human resource (e.g., inadequate staff and financial resources), informational (e.g., inadequate research and monitoring programs) and contextual barriers (e.g., sufficient regional networks to mitigate potential transboundary impacts) currently challenge the efficient and effective integration of climate change into decision-making and management within agencies working in these regions. The IPA framework proved to be an effective tool to help managers identify and understand agency strengths, areas of concern, redundancies, and areas that warrant the use of limited funds and/or resource re-allocation in order to enhance adaptive capacity and maximize management effectiveness with respect to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23139330, year = {2012}, author = {Kennett, DJ and Breitenbach, SF and Aquino, VV and Asmerom, Y and Awe, J and Baldini, JU and Bartlein, P and Culleton, BJ and Ebert, C and Jazwa, C and Macri, MJ and Marwan, N and Polyak, V and Prufer, KM and Ridley, HE and Sodemann, H and Winterhalder, B and Haug, GH}, title = {Development and disintegration of Maya political systems in response to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {338}, number = {6108}, pages = {788-791}, doi = {10.1126/science.1226299}, pmid = {23139330}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Agriculture/history ; Belize ; Caves ; Civilization/*history ; Climate Change/*history ; Droughts/history ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; Indians, Central American/*history ; Oxygen Isotopes ; Political Systems/*history ; *Rain ; Warfare ; }, abstract = {The role of climate change in the development and demise of Classic Maya civilization (300 to 1000 C.E.) remains controversial because of the absence of well-dated climate and archaeological sequences. We present a precisely dated subannual climate record for the past 2000 years from Yok Balum Cave, Belize. From comparison of this record with historical events compiled from well-dated stone monuments, we propose that anomalously high rainfall favored unprecedented population expansion and the proliferation of political centers between 440 and 660 C.E. This was followed by a drying trend between 660 and 1000 C.E. that triggered the balkanization of polities, increased warfare, and the asynchronous disintegration of polities, followed by population collapse in the context of an extended drought between 1020 and 1100 C.E.}, }
@article {pmid23139323, year = {2012}, author = {Shell, KM}, title = {Climate change. Constraining cloud feedbacks.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {338}, number = {6108}, pages = {755-756}, doi = {10.1126/science.1231083}, pmid = {23139323}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid23139304, year = {2012}, author = {Pringle, H}, title = {Archaeology. Did pulses of climate change drive the rise and fall of the Maya?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {338}, number = {6108}, pages = {730-731}, doi = {10.1126/science.338.6108.730}, pmid = {23139304}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Archaeology ; Belize ; Caves ; Civilization/*history ; Climate Change/*history ; Droughts/history ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; Indians, Central American/*history ; Politics ; Rain ; Warfare ; }, }
@article {pmid23139060, year = {2012}, author = {Tognetti, R}, title = {Adaptation to climate change of dioecious plants: does gender balance matter?.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {32}, number = {11}, pages = {1321-1324}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tps105}, pmid = {23139060}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Photosynthesis/*physiology ; Populus/*physiology ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid23137299, year = {2012}, author = {Attard, CR and Beheregaray, LB and Jenner, KC and Gill, PC and Jenner, MN and Morrice, MG and Robertson, KM and Möller, LM}, title = {Hybridization of Southern Hemisphere blue whale subspecies and a sympatric area off Antarctica: impacts of whaling or climate change?.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {23}, pages = {5715-5727}, doi = {10.1111/mec.12025}, pmid = {23137299}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Balaenoptera/*genetics ; Climate Change ; Endangered Species ; Female ; Genetics, Population ; *Hybridization, Genetic ; Male ; Sympatry ; Whales/genetics ; }, abstract = {Understanding the degree of genetic exchange between subspecies and populations is vital for the appropriate management of endangered species. Blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) have two recognized Southern Hemisphere subspecies that show differences in geographic distribution, morphology, vocalizations and genetics. During the austral summer feeding season, the Antarctic blue whale (B. m. intermedia) is found in polar waters and the pygmy blue whale (B. m. brevicauda) in temperate waters. Here, we genetically analyzed samples collected during the feeding season to report on several cases of hybridization between the two recognized blue whale Southern Hemisphere subspecies in a previously unconfirmed sympatric area off Antarctica. This means the pygmy blue whales using waters off Antarctica may migrate and then breed during the austral winter with the Antarctic subspecies. Alternatively, the subspecies may interbreed off Antarctica outside the expected austral winter breeding season. The genetically estimated recent migration rates from the pygmy to Antarctic subspecies were greater than estimates of evolutionary migration rates and previous estimates based on morphology of whaling catches. This discrepancy may be due to differences in the methods or an increase in the proportion of pygmy blue whales off Antarctica within the last four decades. Potential causes for the latter are whaling, anthropogenic climate change or a combination of these and may have led to hybridization between the subspecies. Our findings challenge the current knowledge about the breeding behaviour of the world's largest animal and provide key information that can be incorporated into management and conservation practices for this endangered species.}, }
@article {pmid23136071, year = {2013}, author = {Gouin, T and Armitage, JM and Cousins, IT and Muir, DC and Ng, CA and Reid, L and Tao, S}, title = {Influence of global climate change on chemical fate and bioaccumulation: the role of multimedia models.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {20-31}, pmid = {23136071}, issn = {1552-8618}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis/chemistry/metabolism ; Environmental Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Food Chain ; *Models, Chemical ; Multimedia ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Multimedia environmental fate models are valuable tools for investigating potential changes associated with global climate change, particularly because thermodynamic forcing on partitioning behavior as well as diffusive and nondiffusive exchange processes are implicitly considered. Similarly, food-web bioaccumulation models are capable of integrating the net effect of changes associated with factors such as temperature, growth rates, feeding preferences, and partitioning behavior on bioaccumulation potential. For the climate change scenarios considered in the present study, such tools indicate that alterations to exposure concentrations are typically within a factor of 2 of the baseline output. Based on an appreciation for the uncertainty in model parameters and baseline output, the authors recommend caution when interpreting or speculating on the relative importance of global climate change with respect to how changes caused by it will influence chemical fate and bioavailability.}, }
@article {pmid23136056, year = {2013}, author = {Hooper, MJ and Ankley, GT and Cristol, DA and Maryoung, LA and Noyes, PD and Pinkerton, KE}, title = {Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: a role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {32-48}, pmid = {23136056}, issn = {1552-8618}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollutants/chemistry/*toxicity ; Humans ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Models, Chemical ; Risk ; Risk Assessment ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical-GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical-climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments.}, }
@article {pmid23132939, year = {2012}, author = {Chavez, FP}, title = {Climate change and marine ecosystems.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {47}, pages = {19045-19046}, pmid = {23132939}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid23128230, year = {2012}, author = {Foreman, BZ and Heller, PL and Clementz, MT}, title = {Fluvial response to abrupt global warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {491}, number = {7422}, pages = {92-95}, pmid = {23128230}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Altitude ; Aluminum Silicates/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Carbon Isotopes ; Clay ; Colorado ; Geologic Sediments/*analysis ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; History, Ancient ; Plants ; Rain ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate strongly affects the production of sediment from mountain catchments as well as its transport and deposition within adjacent sedimentary basins. However, identifying climatic influences on basin stratigraphy is complicated by nonlinearities, feedback loops, lag times, buffering and convergence among processes within the sediment routeing system. The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) arguably represents the most abrupt and dramatic instance of global warming in the Cenozoic era and has been proposed to be a geologic analogue for anthropogenic climate change. Here we evaluate the fluvial response in western Colorado to the PETM. Concomitant with the carbon isotope excursion marking the PETM we document a basin-wide shift to thick, multistoried, sheets of sandstone characterized by variable channel dimensions, dominance of upper flow regime sedimentary structures, and prevalent crevasse splay deposits. This progradation of coarse-grained lithofacies matches model predictions for rapid increases in sediment flux and discharge, instigated by regional vegetation overturn and enhanced monsoon precipitation. Yet the change in fluvial deposition persisted long after the approximately 200,000-year-long PETM with its increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, emphasizing the strong role the protracted transmission of catchment responses to distant depositional systems has in constructing large-scale basin stratigraphy. Our results, combined with evidence for increased dissolved loads and terrestrial clay export to world oceans, indicate that the transient hyper-greenhouse climate of the PETM may represent a major geomorphic 'system-clearing event', involving a global mobilization of dissolved and solid sediment loads on Earth's surface.}, }
@article {pmid23127195, year = {2013}, author = {Yu, H and Nason, JD}, title = {Nuclear and chloroplast DNA phylogeography of Ficus hirta: obligate pollination mutualism and constraints on range expansion in response to climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {197}, number = {1}, pages = {276-289}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04383.x}, pmid = {23127195}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Alleles ; Animals ; Cell Nucleus/*genetics ; China ; Chloroplasts/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Cluster Analysis ; DNA, Chloroplast/*genetics ; Ecosystem ; Evolution, Molecular ; Ficus/*genetics/physiology ; Gene Flow ; Genetic Loci ; Genetic Variation ; Haplotypes ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Phylogeography/methods ; Pollen/physiology ; *Pollination ; Seed Dispersal ; *Symbiosis ; Thailand ; Wasps/physiology ; }, abstract = {This study uses a phylogeographic approach to investigate how interspecific interactions in an obligate pollination mutualism enhance or constrain dispersal and the range distributions of species through time. Fifteen populations of Ficus hirta, a bird-dispersed fig pollinated by a species-specific fig wasp, were sampled from Thailand to the northern limits of the tropical forest in China. These populations were assayed for six nuclear microsatellite loci and two intergenic chloroplast DNA sequences. Analyses of range expansion and genetic clustering indicated a relatively slow rate of range expansion from two or more southern glacial refugia. Low nuclear differentiation, combined with high interpopulation differentiation, and phylogeographic structuring of chloroplast variation indicated that seed dispersal has had a greater constraint than obligate interactions with fig wasps on the rate of post-glacial range expansion. This study is the first to investigate the phylogeographic history of a widely distributed southeast Asian tropical plant whose distribution extends to the northern limits of tropical forest habitat in China. It is also the first study of Ficus utilizing molecular data to evaluate whether species-specific pollination is a limitation or an aid to range expansion in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23124134, year = {2012}, author = {Lake, IR and Hooper, L and Abdelhamid, A and Bentham, G and Boxall, AB and Draper, A and Fairweather-Tait, S and Hulme, M and Hunter, PR and Nichols, G and Waldron, KW}, title = {Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {11}, pages = {1520-1526}, pmid = {23124134}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {BBS/E/F/00042288/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Developed Countries ; *Food Safety ; *Food Supply/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/methods ; Humans ; *Nutritive Value ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries.<br><br>METHODS: Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes.<br><br>RESULTS: Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and respond to nutritional and safety issues that arise.}, }
@article {pmid23121188, year = {2012}, author = {Campitelli, BE and Simonsen, AK}, title = {Plant evolutionary ecology: molecular genetics, global warming and invasions, and the novel approaches we are using to study adaptations.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {196}, number = {4}, pages = {975-977}, doi = {10.1111/nph.12028}, pmid = {23121188}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Biological Evolution ; Ecology ; Global Warming ; *Introduced Species ; Molecular Biology/methods ; Phenotype ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/*genetics ; }, }
@article {pmid23120895, year = {2012}, author = {Carey, J}, title = {Global warming: faster than expected? Loss of ice, melting of permafrost and other climate effects are occrring at an alarming pace.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {307}, number = {5}, pages = {50-55}, pmid = {23120895}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Arctic Regions ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climatic Processes ; Disasters ; Floods ; Freezing ; *Global Warming ; Greenland ; Ice Cover ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid23118433, year = {2013}, author = {Duncan, RP}, title = {Leaf morphology shift is not linked to climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {20120659}, pmid = {23118433}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Plant Leaves/*physiology ; Trees/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid23117259, year = {2012}, author = {Weinhold, B}, title = {Expanding the range of possibility: exploring the uncertainty in projecting ozone-related health effects of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {11}, pages = {A436}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.120-a436a}, pmid = {23117259}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*toxicity ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Ozone/*toxicity ; }, }
@article {pmid23117081, year = {2012}, author = {Seltenrich, N}, title = {Newly discovered atmospheric oxidant contributes to climate change, sulfuric acid production.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {11}, pages = {A422}, pmid = {23117081}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Alkenes/chemistry/metabolism ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Oxidants/*chemistry/metabolism ; Ozone/chemistry ; Sulfuric Acids/analysis/*chemistry ; Trees/metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid23115624, year = {2012}, author = {Samson, J and Berteaux, D and McGill, BJ and Humphries, MM}, title = {Demographic amplification of climate change experienced by the contiguous United States population during the 20(th) century.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {10}, pages = {e45683}, pmid = {23115624}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Demography ; History, 20th Century ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; United States ; }, abstract = {Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20(th) century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse.}, }
@article {pmid23114575, year = {2013}, author = {Dai, J and Wang, H and Ge, Q}, title = {Multiple phenological responses to climate change among 42 plant species in Xi'an, China.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {57}, number = {5}, pages = {749-758}, pmid = {23114575}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; China ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Plant Development/*physiology ; Pollination/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Phenological data of 42 woody plants in a temperate deciduous forest from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) and the corresponding meteorological data from 1963 to 2011 in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China were collected and analyzed. The first leaf date (FLD), leaf coloring date (LCD) and first flower date (FFD) are revealed as strong biological signals of climatic change. The FLD, LCD and FFD of most species are sensitive to average temperature during a certain period before phenophase onset. Regional precipitation also has a significant impact on phenophases of about half of the species investigated. Affected by climate change, the FLD and FFD of these species have advanced by 5.54 days and 10.20 days on average during 2003-2011 compared with the period 1963-1996, respectively. Meanwhile, the LCD has delayed by 10.59 days, and growing season length has extended 16.13 days. Diverse responses of phenology commonly exist among different species and functional groups during the study period. Especially for FFD, the deviations between the above two periods ranged from -20.68 to -2.79 days; biotic pollination species showed a significantly greater advance than abiotic pollination species. These results were conducive to the understanding of possible changes in both the structure of plant communities and interspecific relationships in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23113938, year = {2013}, author = {Kelly, D and Geldenhuis, A and James, A and Penelope Holland, E and Plank, MJ and Brockie, RE and Cowan, PE and Harper, GA and Lee, WG and Maitland, MJ and Mark, AF and Mills, JA and Wilson, PR and Byrom, AE}, title = {Of mast and mean: differential-temperature cue makes mast seeding insensitive to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {90-98}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12020}, pmid = {23113938}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Magnoliopsida/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; New Zealand ; Seeds/*growth &amp; development ; *Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Mast-seeding plants often produce high seed crops the year after a warm spring or summer, but the warm-temperature model has inconsistent predictive ability. Here, we show for 26 long-term data sets from five plant families that the temperature difference between the two previous summers (ΔT) better predicts seed crops. This discovery explains how masting species tailor their flowering patterns to sites across altitudinal temperature gradients; predicts that masting will be unaffected by increasing mean temperatures under climate change; improves prediction of impacts on seed consumers; demonstrates that strongly masting species are hypersensitive to climate; explains the rarity of consecutive high-seed years without invoking resource constraints; and generates hypotheses about physiological mechanisms in plants and insect seed predators. For plants, ΔT has many attributes of an ideal cue. This temperature-difference model clarifies our understanding of mast seeding under environmental change, and could also be applied to other cues, such as rainfall.}, }
@article {pmid23112174, year = {2012}, author = {Luo, JJ and Sasaki, W and Masumoto, Y}, title = {Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {46}, pages = {18701-18706}, pmid = {23112174}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.}, }
@article {pmid23111371, year = {2013}, author = {Cheng, JJ and Berry, P}, title = {Health co-benefits and risks of public health adaptation strategies to climate change: a review of current literature.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {58}, number = {2}, pages = {305-311}, pmid = {23111371}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Many public health adaptation strategies have been identified in response to climate change. This report reviews current literature on health co-benefits and risks of these strategies to gain a better understanding of how they may affect health.<br><br>METHODS: A literature review was conducted electronically using English language literature from January 2000 to March 2012. Of 812 articles identified, 22 peer-reviewed articles that directly addressed health co-benefits or risks of adaptation were included in the review.<br><br>RESULTS: The co-benefits and risks identified in the literature most commonly relate to improvements in health associated with adaptation actions that affect social capital and urban design. Health co-benefits of improvements in social capital have positive influences on mental health, independently of other determinants. Risks included reinforcing existing misconceptions regarding health. Health co-benefits of urban design strategies included reduced obesity, cardiovascular disease and improved mental health through increased physical activity, cooling spaces (e.g., shaded areas), and social connectivity. Risks included pollen allergies with increased urban green space, and adverse health effects from heat events through the use of air conditioning.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Due to the current limited understanding of the full impacts of the wide range of existing climate change adaptation strategies, further research should focus on both unintended positive and negative consequences of public health adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid23111135, year = {2012}, author = {Wolfe, K and Smith, AM and Trimby, P and Byrne, M}, title = {Vulnerability of the paper Nautilus (Argonauta nodosa) shell to a climate-change ocean: potential for extinction by dissolution.}, journal = {The Biological bulletin}, volume = {223}, number = {2}, pages = {236-244}, doi = {10.1086/BBLv223n2p236}, pmid = {23111135}, issn = {1939-8697}, mesh = {Animal Shells/chemistry/*physiology/radiation effects ; Animals ; Calcification, Physiologic/radiation effects ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; Female ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Microscopy, Electron, Scanning ; Minerals/analysis ; Nautilus/chemistry/*physiology/radiation effects ; *Oceans and Seas ; Paper ; Temperature ; X-Ray Diffraction ; }, abstract = {Shell calcification in argonauts is unique. Only females of these cephalopods construct the paper nautilus shell, which is used as a brood chamber for developing embryos in the pelagic realm. As one of the thinnest (225 μm) known adult mollusc shells, and lacking an outer protective periostracum-like cover, this shell may be susceptible to dissolution as the ocean warms and decreases in pH. Vulnerability of the A. nodosa shell was investigated through immersion of shell fragments in multifactorial experiments of control (19 °C/pH 8.1; pCO(2) 419; Ω(Ca) = 4.23) and near-future conditions (24 °C/pH 7.8-7.6; pCO(2) 932-1525; Ω(Ca) = 2.72-1.55) for 14 days. More extreme pH treatments (pH 7.4-7.2; pCO(2) 2454-3882; Ω(Ca) = 1.20-0.67) were used to assess tipping points in shell dissolution. X-ray diffractometry revealed no change in mineralogy between untreated and treated shells. Reduced shell weight due to dissolution was evident in shells incubated at pH 7.8 (projected for 2070) after 14 days at control temperature, with increased dissolution in warmer and lower pH treatments. The greatest dissolution was recorded at 24 °C (projected for local waters by 2100) compared to control temperature across all low-pH treatments. Scanning electron microscopy revealed dissolution and etching of shell mineral in experimental treatments. In the absence of compensatory mineralization, the uncovered female brood chamber will be susceptible to dissolution as ocean pH decreases. Since the shell was a crucial adaptation for the evolution of the argonauts' holopelagic existence, persistence of A. nodosa may be compromised by shell dissolution in an ocean-change world.}, }
@article {pmid23110935, year = {2013}, author = {Wu, Y and Wang, Y and Jiang, K and Hanken, J}, title = {Significance of pre-Quaternary climate change for montane species diversity: insights from Asian salamanders (Salamandridae: Pachytriton).}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {66}, number = {1}, pages = {380-390}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2012.10.011}, pmid = {23110935}, issn = {1095-9513}, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Biodiversity ; Cell Nucleus/genetics ; China ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Environment ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Likelihood Functions ; Models, Genetic ; *Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Urodela/*classification/genetics ; }, abstract = {Despite extensive focus on the genetic legacy of Pleistocene glaciation, impacts of earlier climatic change on biodiversity are poorly understood. Because amphibians are highly sensitive to variations in precipitation and temperature, we use a genus of Chinese montane salamanders (Salamandridae: Pachytriton) to study paleoclimatic change in East Asia, which experienced intensification of its monsoon circulation in the late Miocene associated with subsequent Pliocene warming. Using both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequences, we reconstruct the species tree under a coalescent model and demonstrate that all major lineages originated before the Quaternary. Initial speciation within the genus occurred after the summer monsoon entered a stage of substantial intensification. Heavy summer precipitation established temporary water connectivity through overflows between adjacent stream systems, which may facilitate geographic range expansion by aquatic species such as Pachytriton. Species were formed in allopatry likely through vicariant isolation during or after range expansion. To evaluate the influence of Pliocene warming on these cold-adapted salamanders, we construct a novel temperature buffer-zone model, which suggests widespread physiological stress or even extinction during the warming period. A significant deceleration of species accumulation rate is consistent with Pliocene range contraction, which affected P. granulosus and P. archospotus the most because they lack large temperature buffer zones. In contrast, demographic growth occurred in species for which refugia persist. The buffer-zone model reveals the Huangshan Mountain as a potential climatic refugium, which is similar to that found for other East Asian organisms. Our approach can incorporate future climatic data to evaluate the potential impact of ongoing global warming on montane species (particularly amphibians) and to predict possible population declines.}, }
@article {pmid23110636, year = {2013}, author = {Cross, MS and McCarthy, PD and Garfin, G and Gori, D and Enquist, CA}, title = {Accelerating adaptation of natural resource management to address climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {4-13}, pmid = {23110636}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Education ; *Models, Theoretical ; Southwestern United States ; }, abstract = {Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants' self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world.}, }
@article {pmid23110162, year = {2012}, author = {Shabani, F and Kumar, L and Taylor, S}, title = {Climate change impacts on the future distribution of date palms: a modeling exercise using CLIMEX.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {10}, pages = {e48021}, pmid = {23110162}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Arecaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecology/methods/trends ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Humidity ; *Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; *Software ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate is changing and, as a consequence, some areas that are climatically suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) cultivation at the present time will become unsuitable in the future. In contrast, some areas that are unsuitable under the current climate will become suitable in the future. Consequently, countries that are dependent on date fruit export will experience economic decline, while other countries' economies could improve. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this economically important crop under current and future climate scenarios will be useful in planning better strategies to manage such issues. This study used CLIMEX to estimate potential date palm distribution under current and future climate models by using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). The results indicate that in North Africa, many areas with a suitable climate for this species are projected to become climatically unsuitable by 2100. In North and South America, locations such as south-eastern Bolivia and northern Venezuela will become climatically more suitable. By 2070, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and western Iran are projected to have a reduction in climate suitability. The results indicate that cold and dry stresses will play an important role in date palm distribution in the future. These results can inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying new areas in which to cultivate this economically important crop in the future and those areas that will need greater attention due to becoming marginal regions for continued date palm cultivation.}, }
@article {pmid23101465, year = {2013}, author = {Hritonenko, N and Yatsenko, Y and Goetz, RU and Xabadia, A}, title = {Optimal harvesting in forestry: steady-state analysis and climate change impact.}, journal = {Journal of biological dynamics}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {41-58}, doi = {10.1080/17513758.2012.733425}, pmid = {23101465}, issn = {1751-3766}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forestry ; Kinetics ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {We perform the steady-state analysis of a nonlinear partial differential equation model that describes the dynamics of a managed size-structured forest. The harvesting policy is to maximize the net benefits from timber production over an infinite planning horizon. The existence and uniqueness of the steady-state trajectories are analysed. Closed-form steady states are obtained in meaningful special cases and are used to estimate how climate change affects the optimal harvesting regime, diameter of cut trees, number of logged trees, and net benefits in the long run.}, }
@article {pmid23100485, year = {2012}, author = {Munday, PL and McCormick, MI and Nilsson, GE}, title = {Impact of global warming and rising CO2 levels on coral reef fishes: what hope for the future?.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {215}, number = {Pt 22}, pages = {3865-3873}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.074765}, pmid = {23100485}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Aerobiosis ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism/pharmacology ; *Coral Reefs ; Fishes/*metabolism ; *Global Warming ; }, abstract = {Average sea-surface temperature and the amount of CO(2) dissolved in the ocean are rising as a result of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO(2). Many coral reef fishes appear to be living close to their thermal optimum, and for some of them, even relatively moderate increases in temperature (2-4°C) lead to significant reductions in aerobic scope. Reduced aerobic capacity could affect population sustainability because less energy can be devoted to feeding and reproduction. Coral reef fishes seem to have limited capacity to acclimate to elevated temperature as adults, but recent research shows that developmental and transgenerational plasticity occur, which might enable some species to adjust to rising ocean temperatures. Predicted increases in P(CO(2)), and associated ocean acidification, can also influence the aerobic scope of coral reef fishes, although there is considerable interspecific variation, with some species exhibiting a decline and others an increase in aerobic scope at near-future CO(2) levels. As with thermal effects, there are transgenerational changes in response to elevated CO(2) that could mitigate impacts of high CO(2) on the growth and survival of reef fishes. An unexpected discovery is that elevated CO(2) has a dramatic effect on a wide range of behaviours and sensory responses of reef fishes, with consequences for the timing of settlement, habitat selection, predator avoidance and individual fitness. The underlying physiological mechanism appears to be the interference of acid-base regulatory processes with brain neurotransmitter function. Differences in the sensitivity of species and populations to global warming and rising CO(2) have been identified that will lead to changes in fish community structure as the oceans warm and becomes more acidic; however, the prospect for acclimation and adaptation of populations to these threats also needs to be considered. Ultimately, it will be the capacity for species to adjust to environmental change over coming decades that will determine the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid23097460, year = {2013}, author = {Chown, SL and le Roux, PC and Ramaswiela, T and Kalwij, JM and Shaw, JD and McGeoch, MA}, title = {Climate change and elevational diversity capacity: do weedy species take up the slack?.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {20120806}, pmid = {23097460}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Altitude ; Antarctic Regions ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; *Introduced Species ; Plant Weeds/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change leads to species range shifts and consequently to changes in diversity. For many systems, increases in diversity capacity have been forecast, with spare capacity to be taken up by a pool of weedy species moved around by humans. Few tests of this hypothesis have been undertaken, and in many temperate systems, climate change impacts may be confounded by simultaneous increases in human-related disturbance, which also promote weedy species. Areas to which weedy species are being introduced, but with little human disturbance, are therefore ideal for testing the idea. We make predictions about how such diversity capacity increases play out across elevational gradients in non-water-limited systems. Then, using modern and historical data on the elevational range of indigenous and naturalized alien vascular plant species from the relatively undisturbed sub-Antarctic Marion Island, we show that alien species have contributed significantly to filling available diversity capacity and that increases in energy availability rather than disturbance are the probable underlying cause.}, }
@article {pmid23097130, year = {2013}, author = {Stahl, RG and Hooper, MJ and Balbus, JM and Clements, W and Fritz, A and Gouin, T and Helm, R and Hickey, C and Landis, W and Moe, SJ}, title = {The influence of global climate change on the scientific foundations and applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: introduction to a SETAC international workshop.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {13-19}, pmid = {23097130}, issn = {1552-8618}, mesh = {Chemistry ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecotoxicology ; Education ; *Environment ; Environmental Pollutants/toxicity ; Environmental Pollution ; *Foundations ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Risk Assessment ; Science ; }, abstract = {This is the first of seven papers resulting from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled "The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry." The workshop involved 36 scientists from 11 countries and was designed to answer the following question: How will global climate change influence the environmental impacts of chemicals and other stressors and the way we assess and manage them in the environment? While more detail is found in the complete series of articles, some key consensus points are as follows: (1) human actions (including mitigation of and adaptation to impacts of global climate change [GCC]) may have as much influence on the fate and distribution of chemical contaminants as does GCC, and modeled predictions should be interpreted cautiously; (2) climate change can affect the toxicity of chemicals, but chemicals can also affect how organisms acclimate to climate change; (3) effects of GCC may be slow, variable, and difficult to detect, though some populations and communities of high vulnerability may exhibit responses sooner and more dramatically than others; (4) future approaches to human and ecological risk assessments will need to incorporate multiple stressors and cumulative risks considering the wide spectrum of potential impacts stemming from GCC; and (5) baseline/reference conditions for estimating resource injury and restoration/rehabilitation will continually shift due to GCC and represent significant challenges to practitioners.}, }
@article {pmid23097077, year = {2013}, author = {Rohr, JR and Johnson, P and Hickey, CW and Helm, RC and Fritz, A and Brasfield, S}, title = {Implications of global climate change for natural resource damage assessment, restoration, and rehabilitation.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {93-101}, pmid = {23097077}, issn = {1552-8618}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Policy ; Environmental Pollution/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Various international and national regulations hold polluters liable for the cleanup of released hazardous substances and the restoration/rehabilitation of natural resources to preincident baseline conditions, a process often referred to as natural resource damage assessment and restoration (NRDAR). Here, we, the authors, describe how global climate change (GCC) will challenge each of the steps of NRDAR processes and offer eight recommendations to improve these processes in light of GCC. First, we call for a better understanding of the net effects of GCC and contaminants on natural resources. Second, we urge facilities and environmental managers to plan for GCC-related factors that are expected to increase the probability of contaminant releases. Third, we suggest re-evaluating definitions of baseline and reference conditions given that GCC will alter both their trajectories and variability. Fourth, we encourage long-term monitoring to improve the quantification of baseline conditions that will change as climate changes. This will enhance the accuracy of injury assessments, the effectiveness of restoration, and the detection of early warning signs that ecosystems are approaching tipping points. Fifth, in response to or anticipation of GCC, restoration projects may need to be conducted in areas distant from the site of injury or focused on functionally equivalent natural resources; thus, community involvement in NRDAR processes will be increasingly important. Sixth, we promote using NRDAR restoration projects as opportunities to mitigate GCC-related impacts. Seventh, we recommend adaptive management approaches to NRDAR processes and communication of successes and failures widely. Finally, we recommend focusing on managing the stressors that might be exacerbated by GCC, such as pollution and habitat loss, because there is a long history of successfully mitigating these stressors, which can be more easily managed on local scales than climate change. We believe that adoption of these recommendations will lead to a more efficacious NRDAR process, despite the challenges posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23092021, year = {2012}, author = {Mackey, B and Berry, S and Hugh, S and Ferrier, S and Harwood, TD and Williams, KJ}, title = {Ecosystem greenspots: identifying potential drought, fire, and climate-change micro-refuges.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {1852-1864}, doi = {10.1890/11-1479.1}, pmid = {23092021}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; *Fires ; Geological Phenomena ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; New South Wales ; Plants ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {In response to climate change and other threatening processes there is renewed interest in the role of refugia and refuges. In bioregions that experience drought and fire, micro-refuges can play a vital role in ensuring the persistence of species. We develop and apply an approach to identifying potential micro-refuges based on a time series of remotely sensed vegetation greenness (fraction of photosynthetically active radiation intercepted by the sunlit canopy; fPAR). The primary data for this analysis were NASA MODIS 16-day L3 Global 250 m (MOD13Q1) satellite imagery. This method draws upon relevant ecological theory (source sink habitats, habitat templet) to calculate a micro-refuge index, which is analyzed for each of the major vegetation ecosystems in the case-study region (the Great Eastern Ranges of New South Wales, Australia). Potential ecosystem greenspots were identified, at a range of thresholds, based on an index derived from: the mean and coefficient of variance (COV) of fPAR over the 10-year time series; the minimum mean annual fPAR; and the COV of the 12 values of mean monthly fPAR. These greenspots were mapped and compared with (1) an index of vascular plant species composition, (2) environmental variables, and (3) protected areas. Potential micro-refuges were found within all vegetation ecosystem types. The total area of ecosystem greenspots within the upper 25% threshold was 48 406 ha; around 0.2% of the total area of native vegetation (23.9 x 10(6) ha) in the study region. The total area affected by fire was 3.4 x 10(6) ha. The results of the environmental diagnostic analysis suggest deterministic controls on the geographical distribution of potential micro-refuges that may continue to function under climate change. The approach is relevant to other regions of the world where the role of micro-refuges in the persistence of species is recognized, including across the world's arid zones and, in particular, for the Australian, southern African, and South American continents. Micro-refuge networks may play an important role in maintaining beta-diversity at the bio-region scale and contribute to the stability, resilience, and adaptive capacity of ecosystems in the face of ever-growing pressures from human-forced climate change, land use, and other threatening processes.}, }
@article {pmid23092020, year = {2012}, author = {Witter, LA and Johnson, CJ and Croft, B and Gunn, A and Poirier, LM}, title = {Gauging climate change effects at local scales: weather-based indices to monitor insect harassment in caribou.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {1838-1851}, doi = {10.1890/11-0569.1}, pmid = {23092020}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Culicidae ; *Diptera ; Insect Bites and Stings/veterinary ; Insecta/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; *Reindeer ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change is occurring at an accelerated rate in the Arctic. Insect harassment may be an important link between increased summer temperature and reduced body condition in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus). To examine the effects of climate change at a scale relevant to Rangifer herds, we developed monitoring indices using weather to predict activity of parasitic insects across the central Arctic. During 2007-2009, we recorded weather conditions and used carbon dioxide baited traps to monitor activity of mosquitoes (Culicidae), black flies (Simuliidae), and oestrid flies (Oestridae) on the post-calving and summer range of the Bathurst barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) herd in Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. We developed statistical models representing hypotheses about effects of weather, habitat, location, and temporal variables on insect activity. We used multinomial logistic regression to model mosquito and black fly activity, and logistic regression to model oestrid fly presence. We used information theory to select models to predict activity levels of insects. Using historical weather data, we used hindcasting to develop a chronology of insect activity on the Bathurst range from 1957 to 2008. Oestrid presence and mosquito and black fly activity levels were explained by temperature. Wind speed, light intensity, barometric pressure, relative humidity, vegetation, topography, location, time of day, and growing degree-days also affected mosquito and black fly levels. High predictive ability of all models justified the use of weather to index insect activity. Retrospective analyses indicated conditions favoring mosquito activity declined since the late 1950s, while predicted black fly and oestrid activity increased. Our indices can be used as monitoring tools to gauge potential changes in insect harassment due to climate change at scales relevant to caribou herds.}, }
@article {pmid23091621, year = {2012}, author = {Lauria, V and Attrill, MJ and Pinnegar, JK and Brown, A and Edwards, M and Votier, SC}, title = {Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {10}, pages = {e47408}, pmid = {23091621}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Birds ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes ; *Food Chain ; Phytoplankton ; Population Dynamics ; Zooplankton ; }, abstract = {Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect 'bottom-up' climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986-2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66 ± 0.02 °C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = -0.305 ± 0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = -0.410 ± 0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species-specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314 ± 0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = -0.144 ± 0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.}, }
@article {pmid23078748, year = {2012}, author = {Banwell, C and Dixon, J and Bambrick, H and Edwards, F and Kjellström, T}, title = {Socio-cultural reflections on heat in Australia with implications for health and climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {23078748}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Psychological ; Aged ; *Air Conditioning ; Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Feeding Behavior ; Female ; Focus Groups ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; Male ; New South Wales ; Qualitative Research ; Sedentary Behavior ; Social Behavior ; Swimming ; Travel ; Urban Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Australia has a hot climate with maximum summer temperatures in its major cities frequently exceeding 35°C. Although 'heat waves' are an annual occurrence, the associated heat-related deaths among vulnerable groups, such as older people, suggest that Australians could be better prepared to deal with extreme heat.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To understand ways in which a vulnerable sub-population adapt their personal behaviour to cope with heat within the context of Australians' relationship with heat.<br><br>DESIGN: We draw upon scientific, historical and literary sources and on a set of repeat interviews in the suburbs of Western Sydney with eight older participants and two focus group discussions. We discuss ways in which this group of older people modifies their behaviour to adapt to heat, and reflect on manifestations of Australians' ambivalence towards heat.<br><br>RESULTS: Participants reported a number of methods for coping with extreme heat, including a number of methods of personal cooling, changing patterns of daily activity and altering dietary habits. The use of air-conditioning was near universal, but with recognition that increasing energy costs may become more prohibitive over time.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: While a number of methods are employed by older people to stay cool, these may become limited in the future. Australians' attitudes may contribute to the ill-health and mortality associated with excessive heat.}, }
@article {pmid23077484, year = {2012}, author = {Di Paola, A and Valentini, R and Paparella, F}, title = {Climate change threatens coexistence within communities of Mediterranean forested wetlands.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {10}, pages = {e44727}, pmid = {23077484}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Mediterranean Sea ; *Trees ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean region is one of the hot spots of climate change. This study aims at understanding what are the conditions sustaining tree diversity in Mediterranean wet forests under future scenarios of altered hydrological regimes. The core of the work is a quantitative, dynamic model describing the coexistence of different Mediterranean tree species, typical of arid or semi-arid wetlands. Two kind of species, i.e. Hygrophilous (drought sensitive, flood resistant) and Non-hygrophilous (drought resistant, flood sensitive), are broadly defined according to the distinct adaptive strategies of trees against water stress of summer drought and winter flooding. We argue that at intermediate levels of water supply the dual role of water (resource and stress) results in the coexistence of the two kind of species. A bifurcation analysis allows us to assess the effects of climate change on the coexistence of the two species in order to highlight the impacts of predicted climate scenarios on tree diversity. Specifically, the model has been applied to Mediterranean coastal swamp forests of Central Italy located at Castelporziano Estate and Circeo National Park. Our results show that there are distinct rainfall thresholds beyond which stable coexistence becomes impossible. Regional climatic projections show that the lower rainfall threshold may be approached or crossed during the XXI century, calling for an urgent adaptation and mitigation response to prevent biodiversity losses.}, }
@article {pmid23075836, year = {2013}, author = {Cahill, AE and Aiello-Lammens, ME and Fisher-Reid, MC and Hua, X and Karanewsky, CJ and Ryu, HY and Sbeglia, GC and Spagnolo, F and Waldron, JB and Warsi, O and Wiens, JJ}, title = {How does climate change cause extinction?.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {280}, number = {1750}, pages = {20121890}, pmid = {23075836}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Biota ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; Geography ; Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.}, }
@article {pmid23071559, year = {2012}, author = {Meek, MH and Wintzer, AP and Wetzel, WC and May, B}, title = {Climate change likely to facilitate the invasion of the non-native hydroid, Cordylophora caspia, in the San Francisco Estuary.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {10}, pages = {e46373}, pmid = {23071559}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Estuaries ; Hydrozoa/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Introduced Species ; Salinity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change and invasive species can both have negative impacts on native species diversity. Additionally, climate change has the potential to favor invasive species over natives, dealing a double blow to native biodiversity. It is, therefore, vital to determine how changing climate conditions are directly linked to demographic rates and population growth of non-native species so we can quantitatively evaluate how invasive populations may be affected by changing conditions and, in turn, impact native species. Cordylophora caspia, a hydrozoan from the Ponto-Caspian region, has become established in the brackish water habitats of the San Francisco Estuary (SFE). We conducted laboratory experiments to study how temperature and salinity affect C. caspia population growth rates, in order to predict possible responses to climate change. C. Caspia population growth increased nonlinearly with temperature and leveled off at a maximum growth rate near the annual maximum temperature predicted under a conservative climate change scenario. Increasing salinity, however, did not influence growth rates. Our results indicate that C. caspia populations in the SFE will benefit from predicted regional warming trends and be little affected by changes in salinity. The population of C. caspia in the SFE has the potential to thrive under future climate conditions and may subsequently increase its negative impact on the food web.}, }
@article {pmid23071299, year = {2012}, author = {Taylor, GT and Muller-Karger, FE and Thunell, RC and Scranton, MI and Astor, Y and Varela, R and Ghinaglia, LT and Lorenzoni, L and Fanning, KA and Hameed, S and Doherty, O}, title = {Ecosystem responses in the southern Caribbean Sea to global climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {47}, pages = {19315-19320}, pmid = {23071299}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Azores ; Biomass ; Carbon/metabolism ; Caribbean Region ; Chlorophyll/metabolism ; Chlorophyll A ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Geography ; Islands ; Phytoplankton/growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; Tropical Climate ; Zooplankton/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Over the last few decades, rising greenhouse gas emissions have promoted poleward expansion of the large-scale atmospheric Hadley circulation that dominates the Tropics, thereby affecting behavior of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Expression of these changes in tropical marine ecosystems is poorly understood because of sparse observational datasets. We link contemporary ecological changes in the southern Caribbean Sea to global climate change indices. Monthly observations from the CARIACO Ocean Time-Series between 1996 and 2010 document significant decadal scale trends, including a net sea surface temperature (SST) rise of ∼1.0 ± 0.14 °C (±SE), intensified stratification, reduced delivery of upwelled nutrients to surface waters, and diminished phytoplankton bloom intensities evident as overall declines in chlorophyll a concentrations (ΔChla = -2.8 ± 0.5%⋅y(-1)) and net primary production (ΔNPP = -1.5 ± 0.3%⋅y(-1)). Additionally, phytoplankton taxon dominance shifted from diatoms, dinoflagellates, and coccolithophorids to smaller taxa after 2004, whereas mesozooplankton biomass increased and commercial landings of planktivorous sardines collapsed. Collectively, our results reveal an ecological state change in this planktonic system. The weakening trend in Trade Winds (-1.9 ± 0.3%⋅y(-1)) and dependent local variables are largely explained by trends in two climatic indices, namely the northward migration of the Azores High pressure center (descending branch of Hadley cell) by 1.12 ± 0.42°N latitude and the northeasterly progression of the ITCZ Atlantic centroid (ascending branch of Hadley cell), the March position of which shifted by about 800 km between 1996 and 2009.}, }
@article {pmid23065327, year = {2012}, author = {Bielory, L and Lyons, K and Goldberg, R}, title = {Climate change and allergic disease.}, journal = {Current allergy and asthma reports}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {485-494}, pmid = {23065327}, issn = {1534-6315}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; Causality ; Climate Change/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conjunctivitis/epidemiology/immunology ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/economics/*epidemiology/immunology ; Pollen/adverse effects ; Prevalence ; United States ; }, abstract = {Allergies are prevalent throughout the United States and impose a substantial quality of life and economic burden. The potential effect of climate change has an impact on allergic disorders through variability of aeroallergens, food allergens and insect-based allergic venoms. Data suggest allergies (ocular and nasal allergies, allergic asthma and sinusitis) have increased in the United States and that there are changes in allergies to stinging insect populations (vespids, apids and fire ants). The cause of this upward trend is unknown, but any climate change may induce augmentation of this trend; the subspecialty of allergy and immunology needs to be keenly aware of potential issues that are projected for the near and not so distant future.}, }
@article {pmid23063067, year = {2013}, author = {Nikinmaa, M}, title = {Climate change and ocean acidification-interactions with aquatic toxicology.}, journal = {Aquatic toxicology (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {126}, number = {}, pages = {365-372}, doi = {10.1016/j.aquatox.2012.09.006}, pmid = {23063067}, issn = {1879-1514}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Ecotoxicology ; Environmental Pollutants ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {The possibilities for interactions between toxicants and ocean acidification are reviewed from two angles. First, it is considered how toxicant responses may affect ocean acidification by influencing the carbon dioxide balance. Second, it is introduced, how the possible changes in environmental conditions (temperature, pH and oxygenation), expected to be associated with climate change and ocean acidification, may interact with the toxicant responses of organisms, especially fish. One significant weakness in available data is that toxicological research has seldom been connected with ecological and physiological/biochemical research evaluating the responses of organisms to temperature, pH or oxygenation changes occurring in the natural environment. As a result, although there are significant potential interactions between toxicants and natural environmental responses pertaining to climate change and ocean acidification, it is very poorly known if such interactions actually occur, and can be behind the observed disturbances in the function and distribution of organisms in our seas.}, }
@article {pmid23062213, year = {2013}, author = {Sorte, CJ and Ibáñez, I and Blumenthal, DM and Molinari, NA and Miller, LP and Grosholz, ED and Diez, JM and D'Antonio, CM and Olden, JD and Jones, SJ and Dukes, JS}, title = {Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {261-270}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12017}, pmid = {23062213}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Introduced Species ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change and biological invasions are primary threats to global biodiversity that may interact in the future. To date, the hypothesis that climate change will favour non-native species has been examined exclusively through local comparisons of single or few species. Here, we take a meta-analytical approach to broadly evaluate whether non-native species are poised to respond more positively than native species to future climatic conditions. We compiled a database of studies in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that reported performance measures of non-native (157 species) and co-occurring native species (204 species) under different temperature, CO(2) and precipitation conditions. Our analyses revealed that in terrestrial (primarily plant) systems, native and non-native species responded similarly to environmental changes. By contrast, in aquatic (primarily animal) systems, increases in temperature and CO(2) largely inhibited native species. There was a general trend towards stronger responses among non-native species, including enhanced positive responses to more favourable conditions and stronger negative responses to less favourable conditions. As climate change proceeds, aquatic systems may be particularly vulnerable to invasion. Across systems, there could be a higher risk of invasion at sites becoming more climatically hospitable, whereas sites shifting towards harsher conditions may become more resistant to invasions.}, }
@article {pmid23058810, year = {2013}, author = {Coles, SL and Riegl, BM}, title = {Thermal tolerances of reef corals in the Gulf: a review of the potential for increasing coral survival and adaptation to climate change through assisted translocation.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {72}, number = {2}, pages = {323-332}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2012.09.006}, pmid = {23058810}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Anthozoa/classification/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Coral Reefs ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hot Temperature ; Seawater/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Corals in the Gulf withstand summer temperatures up to 10 °C higher than corals elsewhere and have recovered from extreme temperature events in 10 years or less. This heat-tolerance of Gulf corals has positive implications for the world's coral populations to adapt to increasing water temperatures. However, survival of Gulf corals has been severely tested by 35-37 °C temperatures five times in the last 15 years, each time causing extensive coral bleaching and mortality. Anticipated future temperature increases may therefore challenge survival of already highly stressed Gulf corals. Previously proposed translocation of Gulf corals to introduce temperature-adapted corals outside of the Gulf is assessed and determined to be problematical, and to be considered a tool of last resort. Coral culture and transplantation within the Gulf is feasible for helping maintain coral species populations and preserving genomes and adaptive capacities of Gulf corals that are endangered by future thermal stress events.}, }
@article {pmid23056379, year = {2012}, author = {Madin, JS and Hughes, TP and Connolly, SR}, title = {Calcification, storm damage and population resilience of tabular corals under climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {10}, pages = {e46637}, pmid = {23056379}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Calcinosis ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Two facets of climate change--increased tropical storm intensity and ocean acidification--are expected to detrimentally affect reef-building organisms by increasing their mortality rates and decreasing their calcification rates. Our current understanding of these effects is largely based on individual organisms' short-term responses to experimental manipulations. However, predicting the ecologically-relevant effects of climate change requires understanding the long-term demographic implications of these organism-level responses. In this study, we investigate how storm intensity and calcification rate interact to affect population dynamics of the table coral Acropora hyacinthus, a dominant and geographically widespread ecosystem engineer on wave-exposed Indo-Pacific reefs. We develop a mechanistic framework based on the responses of individual-level demographic rates to changes in the physical and chemical environment, using a size-structured population model that enables us to rigorously incorporate uncertainty. We find that table coral populations are vulnerable to future collapse, placing in jeopardy many other reef organisms that are dependent upon them for shelter and food. Resistance to collapse is largely insensitive to predicted changes in storm intensity, but is highly dependent on the extent to which calcification influences both the mechanical properties of reef substrate and the colony-level trade-off between growth rate and skeletal strength. This study provides the first rigorous quantitative accounting of the demographic implications of the effects of ocean acidification and changes in storm intensity, and provides a template for further studies of climate-induced shifts in ecosystems, including coral reefs.}, }
@article {pmid23054565, year = {2012}, author = {Lobell, DB and Gourdji, SM}, title = {The influence of climate change on global crop productivity.}, journal = {Plant physiology}, volume = {160}, number = {4}, pages = {1686-1697}, pmid = {23054565}, issn = {1532-2548}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Food ; Humans ; *Internationality ; Models, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid23045884, year = {2012}, author = {Woods, R and Fernández, A and Coen, S}, title = {The use of religious metaphors by UK newspapers to describe and denigrate climate change.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {323-339}, doi = {10.1177/0963662510385061}, pmid = {23045884}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Metaphor ; Morals ; *Newspapers as Topic ; *Religion ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {British newspapers have denigrated anthropogenic climate change by misrepresenting scientific consensus and/or framing climate change within unsympathetic discourses. One aspect of the latter that has not been studied is the use of metaphor to disparage climate change science and proponents. This article analyses 122 British newspaper articles published using a religious metaphor between summer 2003 and 2008. Most were critical of climate change, especially articles in conservative newspapers The Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail and The Times. Articles used religion as a source of metaphor to denigrate climate change in two ways: (1) undermining its scientific status by presenting it as irrational faith-based religion, and proponents as religious extremists intolerant of criticism; (2) mocking climate change using notions of sin, e.g. describing 'green' behaviours as atonement or sacrifice. We argue that the religious metaphor damages constructive debate by emphasizing morality and how climate change is discussed, and detracting attention from the content of scientific data and theories.}, }
@article {pmid23045880, year = {2012}, author = {Kim, HS}, title = {Climate change, science and community.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {268-285}, doi = {10.1177/0963662511421711}, pmid = {23045880}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {Behavior ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; Decision Making ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Problem Solving ; }, abstract = {Climate change offers serious challenges to the effectiveness of science, communication, and community. It demands us to look back upon what we have done in regard to science and technology. In addition, it leads us to examine human efforts invested to solve collective, shared problems by communication and community. The process of behavior per se is found to be greatly overlooked in the establishment sciences, both natural and social, and in both theory and practice. A theory of behavior is introduced and explicated as a platform to solve such commons' problems as climate change. Finally, we find principled ways to improve effectiveness of communication and community by developing human capabilities so that we can win our battle against climate change and other potential tragedies of the commons.}, }
@article {pmid23045709, year = {2012}, author = {González-Megías, A and Menéndez, R}, title = {Climate change effects on above- and below-ground interactions in a dryland ecosystem.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1606}, pages = {3115-3124}, pmid = {23045709}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Desert Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Flowers ; Food Chain ; *Herbivory ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Insecta/*physiology ; Larva/physiology ; Magnoliopsida/physiology ; Mediterranean Region ; Plant Roots/physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Seasons ; Seeds ; Soil/chemistry ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Individual species respond to climate change by altering their abundance, distribution and phenology. Less is known, however, about how climate change affects multitrophic interactions, and its consequences for food-web dynamics. Here, we investigate the effect of future changes in rainfall patterns on detritivore-plant-herbivore interactions in a semiarid region in southern Spain by experimentally manipulating rainfall intensity and frequency during late spring-early summer. Our results show that rain intensity changes the effect of below-ground detritivores on both plant traits and above-ground herbivore abundance. Enhanced rain altered the interaction between detritivores and plants affecting flower and fruit production, and also had a direct effect on fruit and seed set. Despite this finding, there was no net effect on plant reproductive output. This finding supports the idea that plants will be less affected by climatic changes than by other trophic levels. Enhanced rain also affected the interaction between detritivores and free-living herbivores. The effect, however, was apparent only for generalist and not for specialist herbivores, demonstrating a differential response to climate change within the same trophic level. The complex responses found in this study suggest that future climate change will affect trophic levels and their interactions differentially, making extrapolation from individual species' responses and from one ecosystem to another very difficult.}, }
@article {pmid23045708, year = {2012}, author = {Salguero-Gómez, R and Siewert, W and Casper, BB and Tielbörger, K}, title = {A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1606}, pages = {3100-3114}, pmid = {23045708}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Colorado ; Computer Simulation ; *Desert Climate ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Germination ; Israel ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Development ; Plant Dormancy ; *Plants ; Seasons ; Seeds/chemistry/growth &amp; development ; Species Specificity ; Stochastic Processes ; Water/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these-usually correlative-approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.}, }
@article {pmid23043078, year = {2012}, author = {Anderson, JT and Panetta, AM and Mitchell-Olds, T}, title = {Evolutionary and ecological responses to anthropogenic climate change: update on anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Plant physiology}, volume = {160}, number = {4}, pages = {1728-1740}, pmid = {23043078}, issn = {1532-2548}, support = {R01 GM086496/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; R01-GM086496/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Paleontology ; }, }
@article {pmid23042860, year = {2012}, author = {Malakoff, D}, title = {Climate change. Researchers struggle to assess responses to ocean acidification.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {338}, number = {6103}, pages = {27-28}, doi = {10.1126/science.338.6103.27}, pmid = {23042860}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Acids/*chemistry ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Fisheries ; Fossils ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Marine Biology ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/*chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid23039273, year = {2013}, author = {Milazzo, M and Mirto, S and Domenici, P and Gristina, M}, title = {Climate change exacerbates interspecific interactions in sympatric coastal fishes.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {82}, number = {2}, pages = {468-477}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2012.02034.x}, pmid = {23039273}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*classification/*physiology ; Mediterranean Sea ; Plants/classification ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Biological responses to warming are presently based on the assumption that species will remain within their bioclimatic envelope as environmental conditions change. As a result, changes in the relative abundance of several marine species have been documented over the last decades. This suggests that warming may drive novel interspecific interactions to occur (i.e. invasive vs. native species) or may intensify the strength of pre-existing ones (i.e. warm vs. cold adapted). For mobile species, habitat relocation is a viable solution to track tolerable conditions and reduce competitive costs, resulting in 'winner' species dominating the best quality habitat at the expense of 'loser' species. Here, we focus on the importance of warming in exacerbating interspecific interactions between two sympatric fishes. We assessed the relocation response of the cool-water fish Coris julis (a potential 'loser' species in warming scenarios) at increasing relative dominance of the warm-water fish Thalassoma pavo (a 'winner' species). These wrasses are widespread in the Mediterranean nearshore waters. C. julis tolerates cooler waters and is found throughout the basin. T. pavo is common along southern coasts, although the species range is expanding northwards as the Mediterranean warms. We surveyed habitat patterns along a thermo-latitudinal gradient in the Western Mediterranean Sea and manipulated seawater temperature under two scenarios (present day vs. projected) in outdoor arenas. Our results show that the cool-water species relocates to a less-preferred seagrass habitat and undergoes lower behavioural performance in warmer environments, provided the relative dominance of its warm-water antagonist is high. The results suggest that expected warming will act synergistically with increased relative dominance of a warm-water species to cause a cool-water fish to relocate in a less-preferred habitat within the same thermal environment. Our study highlights the complexity of climate change effects and has broad implications for predictive models of responses to warming. To achieve more accurate predictions, further consideration is needed of the pervasive importance of species interactions. We believe these fundamental issues to be addressed to understand the biotic consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23038105, year = {2012}, author = {Armstrong, B and Hajat, S and Kovats, S and Lloyd, S and Scovronick, N and Wilkinson, P}, title = {Climate change: how can epidemiology best inform policy?.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {780-784}, doi = {10.1097/EDE.0b013e31826d0d13}, pmid = {23038105}, issn = {1531-5487}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cost of Illness ; Epidemiologic Research Design ; *Epidemiological Monitoring ; *Policy Making ; Public Health ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid23036437, year = {2012}, author = {Hetem, RS and Strauss, WM and Fick, LG and Maloney, SK and Meyer, LC and Shobrak, M and Fuller, A and Mitchell, D}, title = {Activity re-assignment and microclimate selection of free-living Arabian oryx: responses that could minimise the effects of climate change on homeostasis?.}, journal = {Zoology (Jena, Germany)}, volume = {115}, number = {6}, pages = {411-416}, doi = {10.1016/j.zool.2012.04.005}, pmid = {23036437}, issn = {1873-2720}, mesh = {Animals ; *Behavior, Animal ; Climate Change ; Female ; Homeostasis ; *Hot Temperature ; Male ; Microclimate ; *Motor Activity ; Ruminants/*psychology ; }, abstract = {Predicting whether behaviour could buffer the effects of climate change on long-lived mammals requires a better understanding of the long-term behavioural responses of mammals to environmental stress. Using biologging, we measured locomotor activity and microclimate selection, over eight months, in five Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx) living free in a Saudi Arabian desert. The oryx displayed seasonal flexibility in activity patterns, shifting from a continuous 24-h activity pattern with crepuscular peaks in cooler months to a predominantly nocturnal activity pattern during the hottest months, without reducing the total 24-h activity level. The proportion of total 24-h activity that occurred during daylight hours was just 29±8% during the hottest months, versus 53±8% (mean±SD, n=5 oryx) in the other months. The attenuation in diurnal activity levels during the hot months was accompanied by the selection of cooler microclimates, presumably via shade seeking, during the heat of the day. Analysis of miniature black globe (miniglobe) temperature from a remote sensor on the collar of two female animals revealed that oryx selected microclimates cooler than the microclimates in direct sun at higher environmental heat loads across all periods, but with enhanced efficiency during the dry periods. We have quantified activity re-assignment and microclimate selection as responses to hot arid conditions in a free-living artiodactyl. Such flexible behavioural processes may act to buffer the adverse effects of the progressively hotter and drier conditions predicted to occur with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23033457, year = {2013}, author = {Gamble, JL and Hurley, BJ and Schultz, PA and Jaglom, WS and Krishnan, N and Harris, M}, title = {Climate change and older Americans: state of the science.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {121}, number = {1}, pages = {15-22}, pmid = {23033457}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; Socioeconomic Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation.<br><br>METHODS: We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies.<br><br>DISCUSSION: A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors.}, }
@article {pmid23011300, year = {2012}, author = {Roland, F and Huszar, VL and Farjalla, V and Enrich-Prast, A and Amado, AM and Ometto, JP}, title = {Climate change in Brazil: perspective on the biogeochemistry of inland waters.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {72}, number = {3 Suppl}, pages = {709-722}, doi = {10.1590/s1519-69842012000400009}, pmid = {23011300}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biota ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Humans ; Lakes ; Rivers ; Seasons ; *Water Cycle ; }, abstract = {Although only a small amount of the Earth's water exists as continental surface water bodies, this compartment plays an important role in the biogeochemical cycles connecting the land to the atmosphere. The territory of Brazil encompasses a dense river net and enormous number of shallow lakes. Human actions have been heavily influenced by the inland waters across the country. Both biodiversity and processes in the water are strongly driven by seasonal fluvial forces and/or precipitation. These macro drivers are sensitive to climate changes. In addition to their crucial importance to humans, inland waters are extremely rich ecosystems, harboring high biodiversity, promoting landscape equilibrium (connecting ecosystems, maintaining animal and plant flows in the landscape, and transferring mass, nutrients and inocula), and controlling regional climates through hydrological-cycle feedback. In this contribution, we describe the aquatic ecological responses to climate change in a conceptual perspective, and we then analyze the possible climate-change scenarios in different regions in Brazil. We also indentify some potential biogeochemical signals in running waters, natural lakes and man-made impoundments. The possible future changes in climate and aquatic ecosystems in Brazil are highly uncertain. Inland waters are pressured by local environmental changes because of land uses, landscape fragmentation, damming and diversion of water bodies, urbanization, wastewater load, and level of pollutants can alter biogeochemical patterns in inland waters over a shorter term than can climate changes. In fact, many intense environmental changes may enhance the effects of changes in climate. Therefore, the maintenance of key elements within the landscape and avoiding extreme perturbation in the systems are urgent to maintain the sustainability of Brazilian inland waters, in order to prevent more catastrophic future events.}, }
@article {pmid23011299, year = {2012}, author = {Watanabe, M and Ortega, E and Bergier, I and Silva, JS}, title = {Nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services in the Brazilian La Plata Basin: anthropogenic influence and climate change.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {72}, number = {3 Suppl}, pages = {691-708}, doi = {10.1590/s1519-69842012000400008}, pmid = {23011299}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; *Nitrogen Cycle ; *Nitrogen Fixation ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {The increasing human demand for food, raw material and energy has radically modified both the landscape and biogeochemical cycles in many river basins in the world. The interference of human activities on the Biosphere is so significant that it has doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen due to industrial fertiliser production (Haber-Bosch), fossil fuel burning and land-use change over the last century. In this context, the Brazilian La Plata Basin contributes to the alteration of the nitrogen cycle in South America because of its huge agricultural and grazing area that meets the demands of its large urban centres - Sao Paulo, for instance - and also external markets abroad. In this paper, we estimate the current inputs and outputs of anthropogenic nitrogen (in kg N.km(-2).yr(-1)) in the basin. In the results, we observe that soybean plays a very important role in the Brazilian La Plata, since it contributes with an annual entrance of about 1.8 TgN due to biological nitrogen fixation. Moreover, our estimate indicates that the export of soybean products accounts for roughly 1.0 TgN which is greater than the annual nitrogen riverine exports from Brazilian Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay rivers together. Complimentarily, we built future scenarios representing changes in the nitrogen cycle profile considering two scenarios of climate change for 2070-2100 (based on IPCC's A2 and B2) that will affect land-use, nitrogen inputs, and loss of such nutrients in the basin. Finally, we discuss how both scenarios will affect human well-being since there is a connection between nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services that affect local and global populations, such as food and fibre production and climate regulation.}, }
@article {pmid23011296, year = {2012}, author = {Bustamante, MM and Nardoto, GB and Pinto, AS and Resende, JC and Takahashi, FS and Vieira, LC}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning of Cerrado ecosystems.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {72}, number = {3 Suppl}, pages = {655-671}, doi = {10.1590/s1519-69842012000400005}, pmid = {23011296}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {Biomass ; Brazil ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fires ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Seasons ; Soil/*chemistry ; Trees/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Water ; }, abstract = {The Cerrado Domain comprises one of the most diverse savannas in the world and is undergoing a rapid loss of habitats due to changes in fire regimes and intense conversion of native areas to agriculture. We reviewed data on the biogeochemical functioning of Cerrado ecosystems and evaluated the potential impacts of regional climate changes. Variation in temperature extremes and in total amount of rainfall and altitude throughout the Cerrado determines marked differences in the composition of species. Cerrado ecosystems are controlled by interactions between water and nutrient availability. In general, nutrient cycles (N, P and base cations) are very conservative, while litter, microbial and plant biomass are important stocks. In terms of C cycling, root systems and especially the soil organic matter are the most important stocks. Typical cerrado ecosystems function as C sinks on an annual basis, although they work as source of C to the atmosphere close to the end of the dry season. Fire is an important factor altering stocks and fluxes of C and nutrients. Predicted changes in temperature, amount and distribution of precipitation vary according to Cerrado sub-regions with more marked changes in the northeastern part of the domain. Higher temperatures, decreases in rainfall with increase in length of the dry season could shift net ecosystem exchanges from C sink to source of C and might intensify burning, reducing nutrient stocks. Interactions between the heterogeneity in the composition and abundance of biological communities throughout the Cerrado Domain and current and future changes in land use make it difficult to project the impacts of future climate scenarios at different temporal and spatial scales and new modeling approaches are needed.}, }
@article {pmid23029173, year = {2012}, author = {Wang, J and Zhang, X and Liu, Y and Pan, X and Liu, P and Chen, Z and Huang, T and Xiong, Z}, title = {Modeling impacts of alternative practices on net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from rice-wheat annual rotation in China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {e45668}, pmid = {23029173}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {China ; *Crops, Agricultural ; *Gases ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Oryza ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: Measured data of methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model to a winter wheat - single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year) impacts on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI).<br><br>PRINCIPAL RESULTS: The simulated cumulative CH(4) emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N(2)O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH(4) and N(2)O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1) high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH(4) emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH(4) emissions, (2) high inorganic N fertilizer increased N(2)O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N(2)O emissions, (3) the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR) under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha(-1) yr(-1), being greater than other scenarios, and (4) the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified cropping system.}, }
@article {pmid23027963, year = {2012}, author = {Bauer, N and Brecha, RJ and Luderer, G}, title = {Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {42}, pages = {16805-16810}, pmid = {23027963}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; Gross Domestic Product ; *Models, Economic ; Nuclear Power Plants/*economics/standards ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.}, }
@article {pmid23019820, year = {2012}, author = {Avise, J and Abraham, RG and Chung, SH and Chen, J and Lamb, B and Salathé, EP and Zhang, Y and Nolte, CG and Loughlin, DH and Guenther, A and Wiedinmyer, C and Duhl, T}, title = {Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative response factor approach for policymakers.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {62}, number = {9}, pages = {1061-1074}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2012.696531}, pmid = {23019820}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Models, Chemical ; Ozone/*analysis ; Seasons ; United States ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The impact of climate change on surface-level ozone is examined through a multiscale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the relative response factor (RRF(E)), which estimates the relative change in peak ozone concentration for a given change in pollutant emissions (the subscript E is added to RRF to remind the reader that the RRF is due to emission changes only). A matrix of model simulations was conducted to examine the individual and combined effects offuture anthropogenic emissions, biogenic emissions, and climate on the RRF(E). For each member in the matrix of simulations the warmest and coolest summers were modeled for the present-day (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) decades. A climate adjustment factor (CAF(C) or CAF(CB) when biogenic emissions are allowed to change with the future climate) was defined as the ratio of the average daily maximum 8-hr ozone simulated under a future climate to that simulated under the present-day climate, and a climate-adjusted RRF(EC) was calculated (RRF(EC) = RRF(E) x CAF(C)). In general, RRF(EC) > RRF(E), which suggests additional emission controls will be required to achieve the same reduction in ozone that would have been achieved in the absence of climate change. Changes in biogenic emissions generally have a smaller impact on the RRF(E) than does future climate change itself The direction of the biogenic effect appears closely linked to organic-nitrate chemistry and whether ozone formation is limited by volatile organic compounds (VOC) or oxides of nitrogen (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Regions that are generally NO(x) limited show a decrease in ozone and RRF(EC), while VOC-limited regions show an increase in ozone and RRF(EC). Comparing results to a previous study using different climate assumptions and models showed large variability in the CAF(CB).<br><br>IMPLICATIONS: We present a methodology for adjusting the RRF to account for the influence of climate change on ozone. The findings of this work suggest that in some geographic regions, climate change has the potential to negate decreases in surface ozone concentrations that would otherwise be achieved through ozone mitigation strategies. In regions of high biogenic VOC emissions relative to anthropogenic NO(x) emissions, the impact of climate change is somewhat reduced, while the opposite is true in regions of high anthropogenic NO(x) emissions relative to biogenic VOC emissions. Further, different future climate realizations are shown to impact ozone in different ways.}, }
@article {pmid23019619, year = {2012}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Ice-free Arctic sea may be years, not decades, away.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {337}, number = {6102}, pages = {1591}, doi = {10.1126/science.337.6102.1591}, pmid = {23019619}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Computer Simulation ; *Ice Cover ; *Seawater ; }, }
@article {pmid23018965, year = {2012}, author = {Kirwan, ML and Mudd, SM}, title = {Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {489}, number = {7417}, pages = {550-553}, pmid = {23018965}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Altitude ; Carbon/analysis/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Organic Chemicals/analysis/metabolism ; Poaceae/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Seawater/analysis ; *Sodium Chloride ; Soil/chemistry ; Temperature ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {About half of annual marine carbon burial takes place in shallow water ecosystems where geomorphic and ecological stability is driven by interactions between the flow of water, vegetation growth and sediment transport. Although the sensitivity of terrestrial and deep marine carbon pools to climate change has been studied for decades, there is little understanding of how coastal carbon accumulation rates will change and potentially feed back on climate. Here we develop a numerical model of salt marsh evolution, informed by recent measurements of productivity and decomposition, and demonstrate that competition between mineral sediment deposition and organic-matter accumulation determines the net impact of climate change on carbon accumulation in intertidal wetlands. We find that the direct impact of warming on soil carbon accumulation rates is more subtle than the impact of warming-driven sea level rise, although the impact of warming increases with increasing rates of sea level rise. Our simulations suggest that the net impact of climate change will be to increase carbon burial rates in the first half of the twenty-first century, but that carbon-climate feedbacks are likely to diminish over time.}, }
@article {pmid23015326, year = {2013}, author = {Ali, MA and Hoque, MA and Kim, PJ}, title = {Mitigating global warming potentials of methane and nitrous oxide gases from rice paddies under different irrigation regimes.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {357-368}, pmid = {23015326}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation/*methods ; Bangladesh ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Fertilizers ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/*analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Soil/chemistry/standards ; }, abstract = {A field experiment was conducted in Bangladesh Agricultural University Farm to investigate the mitigating effects of soil amendments such as calcium carbide, calcium silicate, phosphogypsum, and biochar with urea fertilizer on global warming potentials (GWPs) of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) gases during rice cultivation under continuous and intermittent irrigations. Among the amendments phosphogypsum and silicate fertilizer, being potential source of electron acceptors, decreased maximum level of seasonal CH4 flux by 25-27 % and 32-38 % in continuous and intermittent irrigations, respectively. Biochar and calcium carbide amendments, acting as nitrification inhibitors, decreased N2O emissions by 36-40 % and 26-30 % under continuous and intermittent irrigations, respectively. The total GWP of CH4 and N2O gases were decreased by 7-27 % and 6-34 % with calcium carbide, phosphogypsum, and silicate fertilizer amendments under continuous and intermittent irrigations, respectively. However, biochar amendments increased overall GWP of CH4 and N2O gases.}, }
@article {pmid23014859, year = {2012}, author = {Kallenborn, R and Halsall, C and Dellong, M and Carlsson, P}, title = {The influence of climate change on the global distribution and fate processes of anthropogenic persistent organic pollutants.}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {2854-2869}, doi = {10.1039/c2em30519d}, pmid = {23014859}, issn = {1464-0333}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Environmental Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Organic Chemicals/analysis ; }, abstract = {The effect of climate change on the global distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is of growing interest to both scientists and policy makers alike. The impact of warmer temperatures and the resulting changes to earth system processes on chemical fate are, however, unclear, although there are a growing number of studies that are beginning to examine these impacts and changes in a quantitative way. In this review, we examine broad areas where changes are occurring or are likely to occur with regard to the environmental cycling and fate of chemical contaminants. For this purpose we are examining scientific information from long-term monitoring data with particular emphasis on the Arctic, to show apparent changes in chemical patterns and behaviour. In addition, we examine evidence of changing chemical processes for a number of environmental compartments and indirect effects of climate change on contaminant emissions and behaviour. We also recommend areas of research to address knowledge gaps. In general, our findings indicate that the indirect consequences of climate change (i.e. shifts in agriculture, resource exploitation opportunities, etc.) will have a more marked impact on contaminants distribution and fate than direct climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23009712, year = {2013}, author = {Masi, A and Sadori, L and Baneschi, I and Siani, AM and Zanchetta, G}, title = {Stable isotope analysis of archaeological oak charcoal from eastern Anatolia as a marker of mid-Holocene climate change.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {15 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {83-92}, doi = {10.1111/j.1438-8677.2012.00669.x}, pmid = {23009712}, issn = {1438-8677}, mesh = {Archaeology ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Isotopes/*metabolism ; Charcoal/*analysis ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fossils ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; Quercus/*metabolism/physiology ; Trees/metabolism ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {Comparison between modern trees and archaeological charred wood is an under-explored method to study climate change, which may help to infer past environmental changes. The stable carbon content of deciduous oak charcoals was analysed for five periods covering more than a 1000 years (3350-2000 BC) at the site of Arslantepe, Turkey, together with modern deciduous oak specimens from five rare arboreal patches still present in the area (17-64 km from the site). In studies of past climate change it is difficult to distinguish human-induced changes from independent variations, such as the impact of past populations on the landscape and their relationship with climate changes in the mid-Holocene. Archaeology can evaluate climate signals preserved in fossil plants in light of past human life. This paper will contribute to understanding environmental changes that can be attributed to climate variation and those linked to human activities. We compared (13) C/(12) C of modern and fossil oaks in order to correlate the (13) C-content to environmental features of Arslantepe, both today and between 3350 and 2000 BC. At present, this area is semi-arid. The results show important similarities to palaeoenvironmental records for the rest of the Near East. The climate trend can be divided in three main phases: instability phase from ca. 3200 to 2900 BC; a phase of relative stability (until 2350 BC); and a final increase in aridity. The comparison of Δ(13) C values between fossil and modern plants shows that present climate is more arid than that between the end of the fourth and the whole third millennium BC.}, }
@article {pmid23007094, year = {2012}, author = {Lurgi, M and López, BC and Montoya, JM}, title = {Climate change impacts on body size and food web structure on mountain ecosystems.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1605}, pages = {3050-3057}, pmid = {23007094}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; *Body Size ; Body Weight ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; *Food Chain ; Predatory Behavior ; Temperature ; Vertebrates/physiology ; }, abstract = {The current distribution of climatic conditions will be rearranged on the globe. To survive, species will have to keep pace with climates as they move. Mountains are among the most affected regions owing to both climate and land-use change. Here, we explore the effects of climate change in the vertebrate food web of the Pyrenees. We investigate elevation range expansions between two time-periods illustrative of warming conditions, to assess: (i) the taxonomic composition of range expanders; (ii) changes in food web properties such as the distribution of links per species and community size-structure; and (iii) what are the specific traits of range expanders that set them apart from the other species in the community-in particular, body mass, diet generalism, vulnerability and trophic position within the food web. We found an upward expansion of species at all elevations, which was not even for all taxonomic groups and trophic positions. At low and intermediate elevations, predator : prey mass ratios were significantly reduced. Expanders were larger, had fewer predators and were, in general, more specialists. Our study shows that elevation range expansions as climate warms have important and predictable impacts on the structure and size distribution of food webs across space.}, }
@article {pmid23007091, year = {2012}, author = {Ott, D and Rall, BC and Brose, U}, title = {Climate change effects on macrofaunal litter decomposition: the interplay of temperature, body masses and stoichiometry.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1605}, pages = {3025-3032}, pmid = {23007091}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Betulaceae/metabolism/physiology ; Body Size ; *Body Weight ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Herbivory ; Isopoda/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Plant Leaves/*metabolism ; Soil/analysis ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Macrofauna invertebrates of forest floors provide important functions in the decomposition process of soil organic matter, which is affected by the nutrient stoichiometry of the leaf litter. Climate change effects on forest ecosystems include warming and decreasing litter quality (e.g. higher C : nutrient ratios) induced by higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. While litter-bag experiments unravelled separate effects, a mechanistic understanding of how interactions between temperature and litter stoichiometry are driving decomposition rates is lacking. In a laboratory experiment, we filled this void by quantifying decomposer consumption rates analogous to predator-prey functional responses that include the mechanistic parameters handling time and attack rate. Systematically, we varied the body masses of isopods, the environmental temperature and the resource between poor (hornbeam) and good quality (ash). We found that attack rates increased and handling times decreased (i) with body masses and (ii) temperature. Interestingly, these relationships interacted with litter quality: small isopods possibly avoided the poorer resource, whereas large isopods exhibited increased, compensatory feeding of the poorer resource, which may be explained by their higher metabolic demands. The combination of metabolic theory and ecological stoichiometry provided critically important mechanistic insights into how warming and varying litter quality may modify macrofaunal decomposition rates.}, }
@article {pmid23007087, year = {2012}, author = {Woodward, G and Brown, LE and Edwards, FK and Hudson, LN and Milner, AM and Reuman, DC and Ledger, ME}, title = {Climate change impacts in multispecies systems: drought alters food web size structure in a field experiment.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1605}, pages = {2990-2997}, pmid = {23007087}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; Body Size ; *Body Weight ; *Climate Change ; Computational Biology/methods ; Computer Simulation ; Droughts ; *Food Chain ; Logistic Models ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {Experimental data from intergenerational field manipulations of entire food webs are scarce, yet such approaches are essential for gauging impacts of environmental change in natural systems. We imposed 2 years of intermittent drought on stream channels in a replicated field trial, to measure food web responses to simulated climate change. Drought triggered widespread losses of species and links, with larger taxa and those that were rare for their size, many of which were predatory, being especially vulnerable. Many network properties, including size-scaling relationships within food chains, changed in response to drought. Other properties, such as connectance, were unaffected. These findings highlight the need for detailed experimental data from different organizational levels, from pairwise links to the entire food web. The loss of not only large species, but also those that were rare for their size, provides a newly refined way to gauge likely impacts that may be applied more generally to other systems and/or impacts.}, }
@article {pmid23007086, year = {2012}, author = {Blanchard, JL and Jennings, S and Holmes, R and Harle, J and Merino, G and Allen, JI and Holt, J and Dulvy, NK and Barange, M}, title = {Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1605}, pages = {2979-2989}, pmid = {23007086}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries/*methods ; Fishes/*growth &amp; development ; Marine Biology/*methods ; Models, Biological ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton/growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical-biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30-60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28-89%.}, }
@article {pmid23007085, year = {2012}, author = {Twomey, M and Brodte, E and Jacob, U and Brose, U and Crowe, TP and Emmerson, MC}, title = {Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1605}, pages = {2971-2978}, pmid = {23007085}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Body Size ; Brachyura/*metabolism/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Energy Metabolism ; Feeding Behavior ; Food Chain ; Gastropoda/*metabolism/physiology ; Oxygen/metabolism ; Oxygen Consumption ; Palaemonidae/*metabolism/physiology ; Regression Analysis ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism-body mass and consumption-body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid23007083, year = {2012}, author = {Frelich, LE and Peterson, RO and Dovčiak, M and Reich, PB and Vucetich, JA and Eisenhauer, N}, title = {Trophic cascades, invasive species and body-size hierarchies interactively modulate climate change responses of ecotonal temperate-boreal forest.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1605}, pages = {2955-2961}, pmid = {23007083}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropods/physiology ; Biomass ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Food Chain ; Herbivory ; *Introduced Species ; Oligochaeta/physiology ; Population Density ; Predatory Behavior ; Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {As the climate warms, boreal tree species are expected to be gradually replaced by temperate species within the southern boreal forest. Warming will be accompanied by changes in above- and below-ground consumers: large moose (Alces alces) replaced by smaller deer (Odocoileus virginianus) above-ground, and small detritivores replaced by larger exotic earthworms below-ground. These shifts may induce a cascade of ecological impacts across trophic levels that could alter the boreal to temperate forest transition. Deer are more likely to browse saplings of temperate tree species, and European earthworms favour seedlings of boreal tree species more than temperate species, potentially hindering the ability of temperate tree species to expand northwards. We hypothesize that warming-induced changes in consumers will lead to novel plant communities by changing the filter on plant species success, and that above- and below-ground cascades of trophic interactions will allow boreal tree species to persist during early phases of warming, leading to an abrupt change at a later time. The synthesis of evidence suggests that consumers can modify the climate change-induced transition of ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid23007082, year = {2012}, author = {Eklöf, A and Kaneryd, L and Münger, P}, title = {Climate change in metacommunities: dispersal gives double-sided effects on persistence.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1605}, pages = {2945-2954}, pmid = {23007082}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Demography ; Extinction, Biological ; Feeding Behavior/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior/physiology ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasingly affecting the structure and dynamics of ecological communities both at local and at regional scales, and this can be expected to have important consequences for their robustness and long-term persistence. The aim of the present work is to analyse how the spatial structure of the landscape and dispersal patterns of species (dispersal rate and average dispersal distance) affects metacommunity response to two disturbances: (i) increased mortality during dispersal and (ii) local species extinction. We analyse the disturbances both in isolation and in combination. Using a spatially and dynamically explicit metacommunity model, we find that the effect of dispersal on metacommunity persistence is two-sided: on the one hand, high dispersal significantly reduces the risk of bottom-up extinction cascades following the local removal of a species; on the other hand, when dispersal imposes a risk to the dispersing individuals, high dispersal increases extinction risks, especially when dispersal is global. Large-bodied species with long generation times at the highest trophic level are particularly vulnerable to extinction when dispersal involves a risk. This suggests that decreasing the mortality risk of dispersing individuals by improving the quality of the habitat matrix may greatly increase the robustness of metacommunities.}, }
@article {pmid23007081, year = {2012}, author = {Binzer, A and Guill, C and Brose, U and Rall, BC}, title = {The dynamics of food chains under climate change and nutrient enrichment.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1605}, pages = {2935-2944}, pmid = {23007081}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Biomass ; Biota ; Body Size ; Body Weight ; *Climate Change ; Energy Metabolism ; Extinction, Biological ; Fertilization ; *Food ; *Food Chain ; Population Dynamics ; Starvation/metabolism ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Warming has profound effects on biological rates such as metabolism, growth, feeding and death of organisms, eventually affecting their ability to survive. Using a nonlinear bioenergetic population-dynamic model that accounts for temperature and body-mass dependencies of biological rates, we analysed the individual and interactive effects of increasing temperature and nutrient enrichment on the dynamics of a three-species food chain. At low temperatures, warming counteracts the destabilizing effects of enrichment by both bottom-up (via the carrying capacity) and top-down (via biological rates) mechanisms. Together with increasing consumer body masses, warming increases the system tolerance to fertilization. Simultaneously, warming increases the risk of starvation for large species in low-fertility systems. This effect can be counteracted by increased fertilization. In combination, therefore, two main drivers of global change and biodiversity loss can have positive and negative effects on food chain stability. Our model incorporates the most recent empirical data and may thus be used as the basis for more complex forecasting models incorporating food-web structure.}, }
@article {pmid23007079, year = {2012}, author = {Lurgi, M and López, BC and Montoya, JM}, title = {Novel communities from climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1605}, pages = {2913-2922}, pmid = {23007079}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biota ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is generating novel communities composed of new combinations of species. These result from different degrees of species adaptations to changing biotic and abiotic conditions, and from differential range shifts of species. To determine whether the responses of organisms are determined by particular species traits and how species interactions and community dynamics are likely to be disrupted is a challenge. Here, we focus on two key traits: body size and ecological specialization. We present theoretical expectations and empirical evidence on how climate change affects these traits within communities. We then explore how these traits predispose species to shift or expand their distribution ranges, and associated changes on community size structure, food web organization and dynamics. We identify three major broad changes: (i) Shift in the distribution of body sizes towards smaller sizes, (ii) dominance of generalized interactions and the loss of specialized interactions, and (iii) changes in the balance of strong and weak interaction strengths in the short term. We finally identify two major uncertainties: (i) whether large-bodied species tend to preferentially shift their ranges more than small-bodied ones, and (ii) how interaction strengths will change in the long term and in the case of newly interacting species.}, }
@article {pmid23007078, year = {2012}, author = {Brose, U and Dunne, JA and Montoya, JM and Petchey, OL and Schneider, FD and Jacob, U}, title = {Climate change in size-structured ecosystems.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1605}, pages = {2903-2912}, pmid = {23007078}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size/*physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Feeding Behavior/physiology ; Food Chain ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {One important aspect of climate change is the increase in average temperature, which will not only have direct physiological effects on all species but also indirectly modifies abundances, interaction strengths, food-web topologies, community stability and functioning. In this theme issue, we highlight a novel pathway through which warming indirectly affects ecological communities: by changing their size structure (i.e. the body-size distributions). Warming can shift these distributions towards dominance of small- over large-bodied species. The conceptual, theoretical and empirical research described in this issue, in sum, suggests that effects of temperature may be dominated by changes in size structure, with relatively weak direct effects. For example, temperature effects via size structure have implications for top-down and bottom-up control in ecosystems and may ultimately yield novel communities. Moreover, scaling up effects of temperature and body size from physiology to the levels of populations, communities and ecosystems may provide a crucially important mechanistic approach for forecasting future consequences of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid23005343, year = {2012}, author = {Dijkstra, FA and Pendall, E and Morgan, JA and Blumenthal, DM and Carrillo, Y and LeCain, DR and Follett, RF and Williams, DG}, title = {Climate change alters stoichiometry of phosphorus and nitrogen in a semiarid grassland.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {196}, number = {3}, pages = {807-815}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04349.x}, pmid = {23005343}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Hot Temperature ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Phosphorus/*metabolism ; Poaceae/*metabolism ; Quaternary Ammonium Compounds/metabolism ; Soil/*analysis ; *Soil Microbiology ; Water/metabolism ; Wyoming ; }, abstract = {Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential nutrients for primary producers and decomposers in terrestrial ecosystems. Although climate change affects terrestrial N cycling with important feedbacks to plant productivity and carbon sequestration, the impacts of climate change on the relative availability of N with respect to P remain highly uncertain. In a semiarid grassland in Wyoming, USA, we studied the effects of atmospheric CO(2) enrichment (to 600 ppmv) and warming (1.5/3.0°C above ambient temperature during the day/night) on plant, microbial and available soil pools of N and P. Elevated CO(2) increased P availability to plants and microbes relative to that of N, whereas warming reduced P availability relative to N. Across years and treatments, plant N : P ratios varied between 5 and 18 and were inversely related to soil moisture. Our results indicate that soil moisture is important in controlling P supply from inorganic sources, causing reduced P relative to N availability during dry periods. Both wetter soil conditions under elevated CO(2) and drier conditions with warming can further alter N : P. Although warming may alleviate N constraints under elevated CO(2) , warming and drought can exacerbate P constraints on plant growth and microbial activity in this semiarid grassland.}, }
@article {pmid23004010, year = {2013}, author = {Hocking, C and Kroksmark, U}, title = {Sustainable occupational responses to climate change through lifestyle choices.}, journal = {Scandinavian journal of occupational therapy}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {111-117}, doi = {10.3109/11038128.2012.725183}, pmid = {23004010}, issn = {1651-2014}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Data Collection ; Female ; Food ; Household Work ; Humans ; Lebanon ; *Life Style ; Male ; New Zealand ; Occupational Therapy ; Philippines ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Sweden ; Transportation ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Abstract Occupational therapists and occupational scientists are increasingly aware of the relationship between occupation and global climate change, with some working to raise awareness of the issues and others proposing that an occupational perspective can make a valuable contribution to understanding and addressing the issues. In this discussion paper the United Nations Global Survey on Sustainable Lifestyles (1), which reports young adults' beliefs about everyday occupations that have a substantial impact on the environment (food, housekeeping, and transportation) is introduced. The authors argue that the survey findings are a valuable resource for occupational therapists who are concerned about global climate change and work with young adults (age 18-35), providing valuable insights into their concerns and preferences in relation to sustainability. To illustrate the insights contained in the reports, findings from four countries are presented: New Zealand and Sweden, the authors' countries of origin, and the Philippines and Lebanon which have people living in New Zealand and Sweden. Application to individual and community-based interventions to promote more sustainable lifestyles is suggested, along with studies to examine the perspectives of young adults with a disability, as their concerns and sustainability preferences might differ due to the barriers that limit their participation in educational and vocational occupations.}, }
@article {pmid23002270, year = {2012}, author = {O'Mara, FP}, title = {The role of grasslands in food security and climate change.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {110}, number = {6}, pages = {1263-1270}, pmid = {23002270}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Agriculture ; Animals ; *Carbon Sequestration ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Meat ; Milk ; *Poaceae ; Ruminants/growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Grasslands are a major part of the global ecosystem, covering 37 % of the earth's terrestrial area. For a variety of reasons, mostly related to overgrazing and the resulting problems of soil erosion and weed encroachment, many of the world's natural grasslands are in poor condition and showing signs of degradation. This review examines their contribution to global food supply and to combating climate change.<br><br>SCOPE: Grasslands make a significant contribution to food security through providing part of the feed requirements of ruminants used for meat and milk production. Globally, this is more important in food energy terms than pig meat and poultry meat. Grasslands are considered to have the potential to play a key role in greenhouse gas mitigation, particularly in terms of global carbon storage and further carbon sequestration. It is estimated that grazing land management and pasture improvement (e.g. through managing grazing intensity, improved productivity, etc) have a global technical mitigation potential of almost 1&#xb7;5 Gt CO(2) equivalent in 2030, with additional mitigation possible from restoration of degraded lands. Milk and meat production from grassland systems in temperate regions has similar emissions of carbon dioxide per kilogram of product as mixed farming systems in temperate regions, and, if carbon sinks in grasslands are taken into account, grassland-based production systems can be as efficient as high-input systems from a greenhouse gas perspective.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Grasslands are important for global food supply, contributing to ruminant milk and meat production. Extra food will need to come from the world's existing agricultural land base (including grasslands) as the total area of agricultural land has remained static since 1991. Ruminants are efficient converters of grass into humanly edible energy and protein and grassland-based food production can produce food with a comparable carbon footprint as mixed systems. Grasslands are a very important store of carbon, and they are continuing to sequester carbon with considerable potential to increase this further. Grassland adaptation to climate change will be variable, with possible increases or decreases in productivity and increases or decreases in soil carbon stores.}, }
@article {pmid22992311, year = {2012}, author = {Wardekker, JA and de Jong, A and van Bree, L and Turkenburg, WC and van der Sluijs, JP}, title = {Health risks of climate change: an assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {67}, pmid = {22992311}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors ; Expert Testimony ; Floods ; Foodborne Diseases ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity ; Netherlands ; Risk Assessment ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Temperature ; Ultraviolet Rays ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies.<br><br>METHODS: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies.<br><br>RESULTS: The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough 'order-of-magnitude' estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system's and society's capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are most appropriate. For climate related health effects for which rough risk estimates are available, 'robust decision-making' is recommended. For health effects with limited societal and policy relevance, we recommend focusing on no-regret measures. For highly relevant health effects, precautionary measures can be considered. This study indicated that analysing and characterising uncertainty by means of a typology can be a very useful approach for selection and prioritization of preferred adaptation policies to reduce future climate related health risks.}, }
@article {pmid22991364, year = {2012}, author = {Yarlagadda, S and Webster, P and Haworth, E}, title = {The role of public health in climate change and sustainability: is the UK public health community's response adequate?.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {132}, number = {5}, pages = {207-208}, doi = {10.1177/1757913912457308}, pmid = {22991364}, issn = {1757-9139}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Humans ; Program Development/methods ; Public Health/*standards ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid22988099, year = {2012}, author = {Eriksson, A and Betti, L and Friend, AD and Lycett, SJ and Singarayer, JS and von Cramon-Taubadel, N and Valdes, PJ and Balloux, F and Manica, A}, title = {Late Pleistocene climate change and the global expansion of anatomically modern humans.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {40}, pages = {16089-16094}, pmid = {22988099}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {BB/H005854/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/H008691/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/H008802/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Climate Change/*history ; *Demography ; Gene Flow/genetics ; *Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; *Models, Genetic ; *Population Growth ; }, abstract = {The extent to which past climate change has dictated the pattern and timing of the out-of-Africa expansion by anatomically modern humans is currently unclear [Stewart JR, Stringer CB (2012) Science 335:1317-1321]. In particular, the incompleteness of the fossil record makes it difficult to quantify the effect of climate. Here, we take a different approach to this problem; rather than relying on the appearance of fossils or archaeological evidence to determine arrival times in different parts of the world, we use patterns of genetic variation in modern human populations to determine the plausibility of past demographic parameters. We develop a spatially explicit model of the expansion of anatomically modern humans and use climate reconstructions over the past 120 ky based on the Hadley Centre global climate model HadCM3 to quantify the possible effects of climate on human demography. The combinations of demographic parameters compatible with the current genetic makeup of worldwide populations indicate a clear effect of climate on past population densities. Our estimates of this effect, based on population genetics, capture the observed relationship between current climate and population density in modern hunter-gatherers worldwide, providing supporting evidence for the realism of our approach. Furthermore, although we did not use any archaeological and anthropological data to inform the model, the arrival times in different continents predicted by our model are also broadly consistent with the fossil and archaeological records. Our framework provides the most accurate spatiotemporal reconstruction of human demographic history available at present and will allow for a greater integration of genetic and archaeological evidence.}, }
@article {pmid22987516, year = {2012}, author = {Chapman, PM}, title = {Adaptation to global climate change--A bandage as the guillotine descends.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {577}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.1338}, pmid = {22987516}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environmental Policy ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid22983033, year = {2012}, author = {Sharp, KH and Ritchie, KB}, title = {Multi-partner interactions in corals in the face of climate change.}, journal = {The Biological bulletin}, volume = {223}, number = {1}, pages = {66-77}, doi = {10.1086/BBLv223n1p66}, pmid = {22983033}, issn = {1939-8697}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*microbiology/*physiology ; Bacteria/*growth &amp; development ; *Bacterial Physiological Phenomena ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Genomics/methods ; *Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Recent research has explored the possibility that increased sea-surface temperatures and decreasing pH (ocean acidification) contribute to the ongoing decline of coral reef ecosystems. Within corals, a diverse microbiome exerts significant influence on biogeochemical and ecological processes, including food webs, organismal life cycles, and chemical and nutrient cycling. Microbes on coral reefs play a critical role in regulating larval recruitment, bacterial colonization, and pathogen abundance under ambient conditions, ultimately governing the overall resilience of coral reef systems. As a result, microbial processes may be involved in reef ecosystem-level responses to climate change. Developments of new molecular technologies, in addition to multidisciplinary collaborative research on coral reefs, have led to the rapid advancement in our understanding of bacterially mediated reef responses to environmental change. Here we review new discoveries regarding (1) the onset of coral-bacterial associations; (2) the functional roles that bacteria play in healthy corals; and (3) how bacteria influence coral reef response to environmental change, leading to a model describing how reef microbiota direct ecosystem-level response to a changing global climate.}, }
@article {pmid22982452, year = {2012}, author = {Selbmann, L and Isola, D and Fenice, M and Zucconi, L and Sterflinger, K and Onofri, S}, title = {Potential extinction of Antarctic endemic fungal species as a consequence of global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {438}, number = {}, pages = {127-134}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.08.027}, pmid = {22982452}, issn = {1879-1026}, support = {P 24206/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Antibiosis/*physiology ; Ascomycota/*pathogenicity/*physiology/ultrastructure ; Extinction, Biological ; *Global Warming ; Microscopy, Electron ; }, abstract = {Cryomyces spp. are fungi adapted to the harsh conditions of the McMurdo Dry Valleys in the Antarctic. The structure of their cell wall is one of the main factors for their uncommon ability to survive external stressors. The cells are, in fact, embedded in a thick and strongly melanised cell wall encrusted with black rigid plaques giving a supplementary protection and making them practically impregnable and refractory even to commercial enzymes including chitinases and glucanases. The Antarctic fungus Lecanicillium muscarium CCFEE 5003, able to produce an arsenal of lytic enzymes, including chitinases and glucanases, is known for its ability to degrade the cell walls of different food spoiling and opportunistic fungi as well as plant pathogenic Oomycota. Active cells of Cryomyces spp. were cultivated in dual culture with the mycoparasitic fungus both in liquid and solid media. Light microscope observations revealed that the cell walls of Cryomyces were heavily decayed. This resulted in the release of protoplasts. Hyphae penetration was evident with both scanning and transmission electron microscope observations. Due to its ecological amplitude (i.e. temperature growth range 0-28 °C), the parasitic fungus could easily expand its area of distribution as a consequence of global warming by invading new areas towards the interior of the continent. The establishment of interactions with organisms living at present in border ecosystems may lead to extinction of extremely specialized and poorly competitive entities.}, }
@article {pmid22982250, year = {2012}, author = {Rogers, M and Curtis, A and Mazur, N}, title = {The influence of cognitive processes on rural landholder responses to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {111}, number = {}, pages = {258-266}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.07.015}, pmid = {22982250}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Decision Making ; *Ownership ; *Rural Population ; Social Values ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Victoria ; }, abstract = {Global climate change modelling has identified south-east Australia as a 'hot spot' for more frequent climatic extremes. Rural landholders may be vulnerable to the risks climate change presents. Australia's rural landholders are considered highly adaptable, with a history of responding to climatic uncertainty and variability. Yet it is possible that some of their adaptations will not be effective in reducing vulnerability, and may have downstream impacts. Rural landholder decision making is complex, and this is one of a limited number of papers examining rural landholder responses to climate change and the factors influencing their decisions. Data were gathered using semi-structured interviews and a mail survey of rural landholders in two districts. Established socio-psychological scales were employed to measure beliefs, values and attitudes that are expected to shape landholder behaviour. Most of the rural landholders surveyed were not climate change 'deniers' with 70% agreeing that the climate is changing and that human activity is a major influence. Climate change was nominated as an influence on six adaptive behaviours by 50% or more of survey respondents. However, there were no significant relationships between belief in climate change and adaptive actions. Personal values and worldviews were found to be the most frequent factors linked to adaptive behaviour. These findings illustrate the complex nature of rural landholder decision making: suggesting that many rural landholders do not need convincing of the existence of climate change; and that efforts to motivate rural landholders to respond to climate change risks should be based on sound knowledge of their values and worldviews.}, }
@article {pmid22978608, year = {2012}, author = {Del Grosso, SJ and Parton, WJ}, title = {Climate change increases soil nitrous oxide emissions.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {196}, number = {2}, pages = {327-328}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04334.x}, pmid = {22978608}, issn = {1469-8137}, }
@article {pmid22977155, year = {2012}, author = {Mellows, A and Barnett, R and Dalén, L and Sandoval-Castellanos, E and Linderholm, A and McGovern, TH and Church, MJ and Larson, G}, title = {The impact of past climate change on genetic variation and population connectivity in the Icelandic arctic fox.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {279}, number = {1747}, pages = {4568-4573}, pmid = {22977155}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Base Sequence ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/chemistry ; Female ; Foxes/*genetics/physiology ; *Genetic Variation ; Iceland ; Male ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Previous studies have suggested that the presence of sea ice is an important factor in facilitating migration and determining the degree of genetic isolation among contemporary arctic fox populations. Because the extent of sea ice is dependent upon global temperatures, periods of significant cooling would have had a major impact on fox population connectivity and genetic variation. We tested this hypothesis by extracting and sequencing mitochondrial control region sequences from 17 arctic foxes excavated from two late-ninth-century to twelfth-century AD archaeological sites in northeast Iceland, both of which predate the Little Ice Age (approx. sixteenth to nineteenth century). Despite the fact that five haplotypes have been observed in modern Icelandic foxes, a single haplotype was shared among all of the ancient individuals. Results from simulations within an approximate Bayesian computation framework suggest that the rapid increase in Icelandic arctic fox haplotype diversity can only be explained by sea-ice-mediated fox immigration facilitated by the Little Ice Age.}, }
@article {pmid22974540, year = {2012}, author = {Hernroth, B and Sköld, HN and Wiklander, K and Jutfelt, F and Baden, S}, title = {Simulated climate change causes immune suppression and protein damage in the crustacean Nephrops norvegicus.}, journal = {Fish &amp; shellfish immunology}, volume = {33}, number = {5}, pages = {1095-1101}, doi = {10.1016/j.fsi.2012.08.011}, pmid = {22974540}, issn = {1095-9947}, mesh = {Animals ; Apoptosis/immunology ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Glycation End Products, Advanced/metabolism ; Hemocytes/drug effects ; Hemolymph/metabolism ; Hepatopancreas/metabolism ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Lipid Peroxidation/immunology ; Monophenol Monooxygenase/metabolism ; Nephropidae/*immunology ; Phagocytosis/drug effects ; Seawater/adverse effects/*chemistry ; Stress, Physiological/*immunology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is causing global warming, which affects oceans by elevating water temperature and reducing pH. Crustaceans have been considered tolerant to ocean acidification because of their retained capacity to calcify during subnormal pH. However, we report here that significant immune suppression of the Norway lobster, Nephrops norvegicus, occurs after a 4-month exposure to ocean acidification (OA) at a level predicted for the year 2100 (hypercapnic seawater with a pH lowered by 0.4 units). Experiments carried out at different temperatures (5, 10, 12, 14, 16, and 18°C) demonstrated that the temperature within this range alone did not affect lobster immune responses. In the OA-treatment, hemocyte numbers were reduced by almost 50% and the phagocytic capacity of the remaining hemocytes was inhibited by 60%. The reduction in hemocyte numbers was not due to increased apoptosis in hematopoetic tissue. Cellular responses to stress were investigated through evaluating advanced glycation end products (AGE) and lipid oxidation in lobster hepatopancreata, and OA-treatment was shown to significantly increase AGEs', indicating stress-induced protein alterations. Furthermore, the extracellular pH of lobster hemolymph was reduced by approximately 0.2 units in the OA-treatment group, indicating either limited pH compensation or buffering capacity. The negative effects of OA-treatment on the nephropidae immune response and tissue homeostasis were more pronounced at higher temperatures (12-18°C versus 5°C), which may potentially affect disease severity and spread. Our results signify that ocean acidification may have adverse effects on the physiology of lobsters, which previously had been overlooked in studies of basic parameters such as lobster growth or calcification.}, }
@article {pmid22972704, year = {2012}, author = {DeLucia, EH and Nabity, PD and Zavala, JA and Berenbaum, MR}, title = {Climate change: resetting plant-insect interactions.}, journal = {Plant physiology}, volume = {160}, number = {4}, pages = {1677-1685}, pmid = {22972704}, issn = {1532-2548}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Herbivory/physiology ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Insecta/*physiology ; Plant Growth Regulators/metabolism ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/immunology ; }, }
@article {pmid22970267, year = {2012}, author = {Ekvall, MK and Hansson, LA}, title = {Differences in recruitment and life-history strategy alter zooplankton spring dynamics under climate-change conditions.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {e44614}, pmid = {22970267}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Temperature ; *Zooplankton ; }, abstract = {In recent decades temperature elevation has been the focus of many studies on climate change, including effects on planktonic communities, but few studies have examined the effects of increased water color ("brownification"). Since these changes are likely to occur simultaneously, it is important to investigate their potential interactive effects. Accordingly, we performed a mesocosm experiment where we combined a 3 °C increase in temperature with a doubling in water color to study how these factors affect zooplankton. In particular, we looked at recruitment of cladocerans and copepods from the sediment in spring, as well as their establishment in the water column. Our results show that an elevated temperature will have considerable effects on recruitment as well as on pelagic abundances of both cladocerans and copepods, whereas increases in water color will have less effects on the recruitment and pelagic establishment. But more importantly, the proportion of cladocerans in the water column, relative to copepods, increased at higher temperature, suggesting that cladocerans benefit more from elevated temperatures than copepods do. Overall, these results likely stem from the combined effect of changes in recruitment and differences in life history between copepods and cladocerans. Taking a wider outlook, this suggests that future climate warming will change the dominance pattern of zooplankton communities in spring, and, in accordance with the experimental data, we here show that cladocerans are more abundant than copepods in natural lake ecosystems during warmer rather than cooler years.}, }
@article {pmid22967822, year = {2012}, author = {Rodríguez-Entrena, M and Barreiro-Hurlé, J and Gómez-Limón, JA and Espinosa-Goded, M and Castro-Rodríguez, J}, title = {Evaluating the demand for carbon sequestration in olive grove soils as a strategy toward mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {112}, number = {}, pages = {368-376}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.08.004}, pmid = {22967822}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Carbon/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Olea ; }, abstract = {In this paper we present an estimate of the economic value of carbon sequestration in olive grove soils derived from the implementation of different agricultural management systems. Carbon sequestration is considered jointly with other environmental co-benefits, such as enhanced erosion prevention and increased biodiversity. The estimates have been obtained using choice experiments and show that there is a significant demand from society for these environmental services. From a policy perspective, an agri-environmental scheme that delivers the highest level of each environmental service would be valued by society at 121 Euros per hectare. If we focus on carbon sequestration, each ton of CO(2) would be valued at 17 Euros. These results show that there is scope to include agricultural soil carbon sequestration in climate change mitigation strategies and to provide guidance for setting payments for agri-environmental schemes promoting soil management changes.}, }
@article {pmid22966064, year = {2012}, author = {Tomanek, L}, title = {Environmental proteomics of the mussel Mytilus: implications for tolerance to stress and change in limits of biogeographic ranges in response to climate change.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {52}, number = {5}, pages = {648-664}, doi = {10.1093/icb/ics114}, pmid = {22966064}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Acids/metabolism ; Animal Distribution/*physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Energy Metabolism ; Geography ; Homeostasis ; Hot Temperature ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Isocitrate Dehydrogenase/metabolism ; Molecular Chaperones/metabolism ; Mytilus/metabolism/*physiology ; NADP/metabolism ; Pentose Phosphate Pathway ; Population Dynamics ; Proteasome Endopeptidase Complex/metabolism ; Protein Denaturation ; Proteome/analysis/metabolism ; Proteomics/*methods ; Reactive Oxygen Species/metabolism ; Seawater ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change will affect temperature extremes and averages, and hyposaline conditions in coastal areas due to extreme precipitation events and oceanic pH. How climate change will push species close to, or beyond, their physiological tolerance limits as well as change the limits of their biogeographic ranges can probably be investigated best in species that have already responded to climate change and whose distribution ranges are currently in flux. Blue mussels provide such a study system, with the invading warm-adapted Mediterranean Mytilus galloprovincialis having replaced the native more cold-adapted Mytilus trossulus from the southern part of its range in southern California over the past century, possibly due to climate change. However, freshwater input may prevent the latter species from expanding further north. We used a proteomics approach to characterize the responses of the two congeners to acute heat stress, chronic thermal acclimation, and hyposaline stress. In addition, we investigated the proteomic changes in response to decreasing seawater pH in another bivalve, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica. The results suggest that reactive oxygen species (ROS) are a common costressor during environmental stress, including oceanic acidification, and possibly cause modifications of cytoskeletal elements. All stressors disrupted protein homeostasis, indicated by the induction of molecular chaperones and, in the case of acute heat stress, proteasome isoforms, possibly due both to protein denaturation directly by the stressor and to the production of ROS. Acute stress by heat and hyposalinity changed several small G-proteins implicated in cytoskeletal modifications and vesicular transport, respectively. Changes in abundance of proteins involved in energy metabolism and ROS scavenging further suggest a possible trade-off during acute and chronic stress from heat and cold between ROS-generating NADH-producing pathways and ROS-scavenging NADPH-producing pathways, especially through the reaction of NADPH-dependent isocitrate dehydrogenase and the pentose-phosphate pathway. Some of the proteomic changes may not constitute de novo protein synthesis but rather shifts in abundance of isoforms differing in posttranslational modifications, specifically acetylation by a NAD-dependent deacetylase (sirtuin). Interspecific differences suggest that these processes set physiological tolerance limits and thereby contribute to recent biogeographic shifts in range, possibly caused by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22963987, year = {2012}, author = {Quevauviller, P and Barceló, D and Beniston, M and Djordjevic, S and Harding, RJ and Iglesias, A and Ludwig, R and Navarra, A and Navarro Ortega, A and Mark, O and Roson, R and Sempere, D and Stoffel, M and van Lanen, HA and Werner, M}, title = {Integration of research advances in modelling and monitoring in support of WFD river basin management planning in the context of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {440}, number = {}, pages = {167-177}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.07.055}, pmid = {22963987}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The integration of scientific knowledge about possible climate change impacts on water resources has a direct implication on the way water policies are being implemented and evolving. This is particularly true regarding various technical steps embedded into the EU Water Framework Directive river basin management planning, such as risk characterisation, monitoring, design and implementation of action programmes and evaluation of the "good status" objective achievements (in 2015). The need to incorporate climate change considerations into the implementation of EU water policy is currently discussed with a wide range of experts and stakeholders at EU level. Research trends are also on-going, striving to support policy developments and examining how scientific findings and recommendations could be best taken on board by policy-makers and water managers within the forthcoming years. This paper provides a snapshot of policy discussions about climate change in the context of the WFD river basin management planning and specific advancements of related EU-funded research projects. Perspectives for strengthening links among the scientific and policy-making communities in this area are also highlighted.}, }
@article {pmid22963614, year = {2012}, author = {Marvin, HJ}, title = {EMTOX: Climate change impacts on natural toxins in marine and primary plant production system in north west Europe by 2040.}, journal = {Food additives &amp; contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, analysis, control, exposure &amp; risk assessment}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {1501}, doi = {10.1080/19440049.2012.724889}, pmid = {22963614}, issn = {1944-0057}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*growth &amp; development/metabolism/microbiology ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/chemistry/*growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Europe ; *Food Contamination ; Forecasting/methods ; Humans ; Marine Toxins/biosynthesis ; Mycotoxins/biosynthesis ; Toxins, Biological/*biosynthesis ; }, }
@article {pmid22959072, year = {2012}, author = {Ferrer, J and Pérez-Martín, MA and Jiménez, S and Estrela, T and Andreu, J}, title = {GIS-based models for water quantity and quality assessment in the Júcar River Basin, Spain, including climate change effects.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {440}, number = {}, pages = {42-59}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.08.032}, pmid = {22959072}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {This paper describes two different GIS models - one stationary (GeoImpress) and the other non-stationary (Patrical) - that assess water quantity and quality in the Júcar River Basin District, a large river basin district (43,000km(2)) located in Spain. It aims to analyze the status of surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) bodies in relation to the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and to support measures to achieve the WFD objectives. The non-stationary model is used for quantitative analysis of water resources, including long-term water resource assessment; estimation of available GW resources; and evaluation of climate change impact on water resources. The main results obtained are the following: recent water resources have been reduced by approximately 18% compared to the reference period 1961-1990; the GW environmental volume required to accomplish the WFD objectives is approximately 30% of the GW annual resources; and the climate change impact on water resources for the short-term (2010-2040), based on a dynamic downscaling A1B scenario, implies a reduction in water resources by approximately 19% compared to 1990-2000 and a reduction of approximately 40-50% for the long-term (2070-2100), based on dynamic downscaling A2 and B2 scenarios. The model also assesses the impact of various fertilizer application scenarios on the status of future GW quality (nitrate) and if these future statuses will meet the WFD requirements. The stationary model generates data on the actual and future chemical status of SW bodies in the river basin according to the modeled scenarios and reflects the implementation of different types of measures to accomplish the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive and the WFD. Finally, the selection and prioritization of additional measures to accomplish the WFD are based on cost-effectiveness analysis.}, }
@article {pmid22958528, year = {2012}, author = {Newton, AC and Torrance, L and Holden, N and Toth, IK and Cooke, DE and Blok, V and Gilroy, EM}, title = {Climate Change and Defense against Pathogens in Plants.}, journal = {Advances in applied microbiology}, volume = {81}, number = {}, pages = {89-132}, doi = {10.1016/B978-0-12-394382-8.00003-4}, pmid = {22958528}, issn = {0065-2164}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Plants/metabolism ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Most reviews of climate change are epidemiological, focusing on impact assessment and risk mapping. However, there are many reports of the effects of environmental stress factors on defense mechanisms in plants against pathogens. We review those representative of key climate change-related stresses to determine whether there are any patterns or trends in adaptation responses. We recognize the complexity of climate change itself and the multitrophic nature of the complex biological interactions of plants, microbes, soil, and the environment and, therefore, the difficulty of reductionist dissection approaches to resolving the problems. We review host defense genes, germplasm, and environmental interactions in different types of organisms but find no significant group-specific trends. Similarly, we review by host defense mechanism type and by host-pathogen trophic relationship but identify no dominating mechanism for stress response. However, we do identify core stress response mechanisms playing key roles in multiple response pathways whether to biotic or abiotic stress. We suggest that these should be central to mechanistic climate change plant defense research. We also recognize biodiversity, heterogeneity, and the need for understanding stress in a true systems biology approach as being essential components of progressing our understanding of and response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22957206, year = {2012}, author = {Maccracken, JG}, title = {Pacific Walrus and climate change: observations and predictions.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {8}, pages = {2072-2090}, pmid = {22957206}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The extent and duration of sea-ice habitats used by Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) are diminishing resulting in altered walrus behavior, mortality, and distribution. I document changes that have occurred over the past several decades and make predictions to the end of the 21st century. Climate models project that sea ice will monotonically decline resulting in more ice-free summers of longer duration. Several stressors that may impact walruses are directly influenced by sea ice. How these stressors materialize were modeled as most likely-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios for the mid- and late-21st century, resulting in four comprehensive working hypotheses that can help identify and prioritize management and research projects, identify comprehensive mitigation actions, and guide monitoring programs to track future developments and adjust programs as needed. In the short term, the most plausible hypotheses predict a continuing northward shift in walrus distribution, increasing use of coastal haulouts in summer and fall, and a population reduction set by the carrying capacity of the near shore environment and subsistence hunting. Alternatively, under worst-case conditions, the population will decline to a level where the probability of extinction is high. In the long term, walrus may seasonally abandon the Bering and Chukchi Seas for sea-ice refugia to the northwest and northeast, ocean warming and pH decline alter walrus food resources, and subsistence hunting exacerbates a large population decline. However, conditions that reverse current trends in sea ice loss cannot be ruled out. Which hypothesis comes to fruition depends on how the stressors develop and the success of mitigation measures. Best-case scenarios indicate that successful mitigation of unsustainable harvests and terrestrial haulout-related mortalities can be effective. Management and research should focus on monitoring, elucidating effects, and mitigation, while ultimately, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce sea-ice habitat losses.}, }
@article {pmid22864703, year = {2012}, author = {Hein, CL and Ohlund, G and Englund, G}, title = {Future distribution of Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus in Sweden under climate change: effects of temperature, lake size and species interactions.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41 Suppl 3}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {303-312}, pmid = {22864703}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; *Lakes ; Logistic Models ; Models, Biological ; Sweden ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trout/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Novel communities will be formed as species with a variety of dispersal abilities and environmental tolerances respond individually to climate change. Thus, models projecting future species distributions must account for species interactions and differential dispersal abilities. We developed a species distribution model for Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus, a freshwater fish that is sensitive both to warm temperatures and to species interactions. A logistic regression model using lake area, mean annual air temperature (1961-1990), pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta occurrence correctly classified 95 % of 467 Swedish lakes. We predicted that Arctic char will lose 73 % of its range in Sweden by 2100. Predicted extinctions could be attributed both to simulated temperature increases and to projected pike invasions. The Swedish mountains will continue to provide refugia for Arctic char in the future and should be the focus of conservation efforts for this highly valued fish.}, }
@article {pmid22940008, year = {2012}, author = {Baruffi, F and Cisotto, A and Cimolino, A and Ferri, M and Monego, M and Norbiato, D and Cappelletto, M and Bisaglia, M and Pretner, A and Galli, A and Scarinci, A and Marsala, V and Panelli, C and Gualdi, S and Bucchignani, E and Torresan, S and Pasini, S and Critto, A and Marcomini, A}, title = {Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {440}, number = {}, pages = {154-166}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.07.070}, pmid = {22940008}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Environmental Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; European Union ; Government Regulation ; *Groundwater ; Italy ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; Water Quality/standards ; *Water Resources ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced information about the potential variations of the water balance components (e.g. river discharge, groundwater level and volume) due to climate change. Such projections were used to develop potential hazard scenarios for the case study area, to be further applied within climate change risk assessment studies for groundwater resources and associated ecosystems. This paper describes the models' chain and the methodological approach adopted in the TRUST project and analyzes the hazard scenarios produced in order to investigate climate change risks for the case study area.}, }
@article {pmid22938744, year = {2012}, author = {Schwartz, SA}, title = {Climate change and willful ignorance.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {268-270}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2012.06.008}, pmid = {22938744}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Politics ; *Public Policy ; *Science ; }, }
@article {pmid22938568, year = {2012}, author = {Malik, SM and Awan, H and Khan, N}, title = {Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {31}, doi = {10.1186/1744-8603-8-31}, pmid = {22938568}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Geography ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; Public Health ; Risk ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan.<br><br>METHODS: A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan.<br><br>RESULTS: The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and geographic terms- such as Balochistan, Low-Intensity Punjab, and Cotton-Wheat Sindh -also happen to be the most deprived regions in Pakistan in terms of socio-economic indicators, suggesting that the government needs to direct its efforts to the socio-economic uplift of these lagging regions to reduce their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22936761, year = {2012}, author = {Aldy, JE and Stavins, RN}, title = {Climate change. Climate negotiators create an opportunity for scholars.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {337}, number = {6098}, pages = {1043-1044}, doi = {10.1126/science.1223836}, pmid = {22936761}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Policy ; *International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid22934894, year = {2012}, author = {Olesen, JE and Børgesen, CD and Elsgaard, L and Palosuo, T and Rötter, RP and Skjelvåg, AO and Peltonen-Sainio, P and Börjesson, T and Trnka, M and Ewert, F and Siebert, S and Brisson, N and Eitzinger, J and van Asselt, ED and Oberforster, M and van der Fels-Klerx, HJ}, title = {Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change.}, journal = {Food additives &amp; contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, analysis, control, exposure &amp; risk assessment}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {1527-1542}, doi = {10.1080/19440049.2012.712060}, pmid = {22934894}, issn = {1944-0057}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods/trends ; Avena/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Edible Grain/*growth &amp; development ; Europe ; Flowering Tops/growth &amp; development ; Forecasting/methods ; Germination ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; Seasons ; Seeds/growth &amp; development ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Triticum/growth &amp; development ; Zea mays/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985-2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site-year-variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1°C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1-3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1-3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied.}, }
@article {pmid22934640, year = {2012}, author = {Franks, SJ and Hoffmann, AA}, title = {Genetics of climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Annual review of genetics}, volume = {46}, number = {}, pages = {185-208}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-genet-110711-155511}, pmid = {22934640}, issn = {1545-2948}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*genetics ; Animals ; Arabidopsis/genetics/physiology ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; *Epigenesis, Genetic ; Evolution, Molecular ; Flowers/genetics/physiology ; Gene Regulatory Networks ; *Genetic Fitness ; Humans ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Selection, Genetic ; Time Factors ; Transcriptome ; }, abstract = {The rapid rate of current global climate change is having strong effects on many species and, at least in some cases, is driving evolution, particularly when changes in conditions alter patterns of selection. Climate change thus provides an opportunity for the study of the genetic basis of adaptation. Such studies include a variety of observational and experimental approaches, such as sampling across clines, artificial evolution experiments, and resurrection studies. These approaches can be combined with a number of techniques in genetics and genomics, including association and mapping analyses, genome scans, and transcription profiling. Recent research has revealed a number of candidate genes potentially involved in climate change adaptation and has also illustrated that genetic regulatory networks and epigenetic effects may be particularly relevant for evolution driven by climate change. Although genetic and genomic data are rapidly accumulating, we still have much to learn about the genetic architecture of climate change adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid22933039, year = {2012}, author = {Brown, VL and Rohani, P}, title = {The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza 'hotspot'.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {1036-1039}, pmid = {22933039}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animals ; Charadriiformes/*physiology/virology ; *Climate Change ; Delaware/epidemiology ; Horseshoe Crabs/*physiology ; Influenza in Birds/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Prevalence ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) pose significant danger to human health. A key step in managing this threat is understanding the maintenance of AIVs in wild birds, their natural reservoir. Ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres) are an atypical bird species in this regard, annually experiencing high AIV prevalence in only one location-Delaware Bay, USA, during their spring migration. While there, they congregate on beaches, attracted by the super-abundance of horseshoe crab eggs. A relationship between ruddy turnstone and horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) population sizes has been established, with a declining horseshoe crab population linked to a corresponding drop in ruddy turnstone population sizes. The effect of this interaction on AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones has also been addressed. Here, we employ a transmission model to investigate how the interaction between these two species is likely to be altered by climate change. We explore the consequences of this modified interaction on both ruddy turnstone population size and AIV prevalence and show that, if climate change leads to a large enough mismatch in species phenology, AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones will increase even as their population size decreases.}, }
@article {pmid22928404, year = {2012}, author = {Cleland, EE and Allen, JM and Crimmins, TM and Dunne, JA and Pau, S and Travers, SE and Zavaleta, ES and Wolkovich, EM}, title = {Phenological tracking enables positive species responses to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {93}, number = {8}, pages = {1765-1771}, doi = {10.1890/11-1912.1}, pmid = {22928404}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {California ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Development ; Plants/*classification ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Earlier spring phenology observed in many plant species in recent decades provides compelling evidence that species are already responding to the rising global temperatures associated with anthropogenic climate change. There is great variability among species, however, in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. Species that do not phenologically "track" climate change may be at a disadvantage if their growth becomes limited by missed interactions with mutualists, or a shorter growing season relative to earlier-active competitors. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that phenological sensitivity could be used to predict species performance in a warming climate, by synthesizing results across terrestrial warming experiments. We assembled data for 57 species across 24 studies where flowering or vegetative phenology was matched with a measure of species performance. Performance metrics included biomass, percent cover, number of flowers, or individual growth. We found that species that advanced their phenology with warming also increased their performance, whereas those that did not advance tended to decline in performance with warming. This indicates that species that cannot phenologically "track" climate may be at increased risk with future climate change, and it suggests that phenological monitoring may provide an important tool for setting future conservation priorities.}, }
@article {pmid22926886, year = {2012}, author = {Piwowarczyk, J and Hansson, A and Hjerpe, M and Chubarenko, B and Karmanov, K}, title = {Climate change in the Baltic sea region: a cross-country analysis of institutional stakeholder perceptions.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41}, number = {6}, pages = {645-655}, pmid = {22926886}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Baltic States ; *Climate Change ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Before climate change is considered in long-term coastal management, it is necessary to investigate how institutional stakeholders in coastal management conceptualize climate change, as their awareness will ultimately affect their actions. Using questionnaires in eight Baltic Sea riparian countries, this study examines environmental managers' awareness of climate change. Our results indicate that problems related to global warming are deemed secondary to short-term social and economic issues. Respondents agree that problems caused by global warming will become increasingly important, but pay little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Current environmental problems are expected to continue to be urgent in the future. We conclude that an apparent gap exists between decision making, public concerns, and scientific consensus, resulting in a situation in which the latest evidence rarely influences commonly held opinions.}, }
@article {pmid22926884, year = {2012}, author = {Mackenzie, BR and Meier, HE and Lindegren, M and Neuenfeldt, S and Eero, M and Blenckner, T and Tomczak, MT and Niiranen, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the Baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41}, number = {6}, pages = {626-636}, pmid = {22926884}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; Baltic States ; *Climate Change ; *Fishes ; Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.}, }
@article {pmid22926882, year = {2012}, author = {Arheimer, B and Dahné, J and Donnelly, C}, title = {Climate change impact on riverine nutrient load and land-based remedial measures of the Baltic sea action plan.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41}, number = {6}, pages = {600-612}, pmid = {22926882}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Baltic States ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model.}, }
@article {pmid22926879, year = {2012}, author = {Meier, HE and Müller-Karulis, B and Andersson, HC and Dieterich, C and Eilola, K and Gustafsson, BG and Höglund, A and Hordoir, R and Kuznetsov, I and Neumann, T and Ranjbar, Z and Savchuk, OP and Schimanke, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on ecological quality indicators and biogeochemical fluxes in the Baltic sea: a multi-model ensemble study.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41}, number = {6}, pages = {558-573}, pmid = {22926879}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Baltic States ; *Climate Change ; *Ecology ; Geology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton/growth &amp; development/isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.}, }
@article {pmid22926875, year = {2012}, author = {Reckermann, M}, title = {Climate change is a big challenge, not only for society but also for science itself.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41}, number = {6}, pages = {527-528}, pmid = {22926875}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Policy ; *Societies ; }, }
@article {pmid22925545, year = {2013}, author = {Witt, A and Fürst, C and Frank, S and Koschke, L and Makeschin, F}, title = {Regionalisation of climate change sensitive forest development types for potential afforestation areas.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {127 Suppl}, number = {}, pages = {S48-55}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.08.007}, pmid = {22925545}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forestry/*methods ; }, abstract = {This paper describes how to use sectoral planning information from forestry to predict and up-scale information on Climate Change sensitive forest development types for potential afforestation areas. The method was developed and applied in the frame of the project RegioPower with focus on the case study region 'Oberes Elbtal-Osterzgebirge'. The data for our study was taken from forest management planning at level of the Federal State of Saxony, Germany. Here, a silvicultural system is implemented, which describes best practices to develop our actual forests into Climate Change adapted forest development types. That includes the selection of drought resistant tree species, a broad range of tree species mixtures per eligible forest development type and the tending, harvesting and regeneration strategies to be applied. This information however, exists only for forest areas and not for areas which could be potentially afforested. The eligibility of the forest development types within the actual forest areas depends on site information, such as nutrient potential, exposition and hydrological soil parameters. The regionalisation of the forest development types to landscape scale had to be based on topographical parameters from the digital elevation model and hydrological soil parameters from soil mapping. In result, we could provide maps for regional planning and decision making with spatially explicit information on the eligible forest development types based on forest management planning information. These maps form a valuable input for testing and optimising afforestation areas with regard to improving the ability of our case study region to mitigate Climate Change effects such as water erosion or drought.}, }
@article {pmid22924795, year = {2013}, author = {Radchuk, V and Turlure, C and Schtickzelle, N}, title = {Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing the response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {82}, number = {1}, pages = {275-285}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2012.02029.x}, pmid = {22924795}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Female ; Larva ; Life Cycle Stages/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Pupa ; }, abstract = {As ectothermic organisms, butterflies have widely been used as models to explore the predicted impacts of climate change. However, most studies explore only one life stage; to our best knowledge, none have integrated the impact of temperature on the vital rates of all life stages for a species of conservation concern. Besides, most population viability analysis models for butterflies are based on yearly population growth rate, precluding the implementation and assessment of important climate change scenarios, where climate change occurs mainly, or differently, during some seasons. Here, we used a combination of laboratory and field experiments to quantify the impact of temperature on all life stages of a vulnerable glacial relict butterfly. Next, we integrated these impacts into an overall population response using a deterministic periodic matrix model and explored the impact of several climate change scenarios. Temperature positively affected egg, pre-diapause larva and pupal survival, and the number of eggs laid by a female; only the survival of overwintering larva was negatively affected by an increase in temperature. Despite the positive impact of warming on many life stages, population viability was reduced under all scenarios, with predictions of much shorter times to extinction than under the baseline (current temperature situation) scenario. Indeed, model predictions were the most sensitive to changes in survival of overwintering larva, the only stage negatively affected by warming. A proper consideration of every stage of the life cycle is important when designing conservation guidelines in the light of climate change. This is in line with the resource-based habitat view, which explicitly refers to the habitat as a collection of resources needed for all life stages of the species. We, therefore, encourage adopting a resource-based habitat view for population viability analysis and development of conservation guidelines for butterflies, and more generally, other organisms. Life stages that are cryptic or difficult to study should not be forsaken as they may be key determinants in the overall response to climate change, as we found with overwintering Boloria eunomia larvae.}, }
@article {pmid22923566, year = {2012}, author = {Skinner, L}, title = {Climate change. A long view on climate sensitivity.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {337}, number = {6097}, pages = {917-919}, doi = {10.1126/science.1224011}, pmid = {22923566}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22922791, year = {2012}, author = {Lin, S and Hsu, WH and Van Zutphen, AR and Saha, S and Luber, G and Hwang, SA}, title = {Excessive heat and respiratory hospitalizations in New York State: estimating current and future public health burden related to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {11}, pages = {1571-1577}, pmid = {22922791}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {U01 EH000396/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; U38 EH000184/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; 1U38EH000184-05/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; 5U01EH000396-02/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Female ; *Hospitalization/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Humans ; Male ; Morbidity ; New York/epidemiology ; Public Health ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*economics/*epidemiology/etiology ; Risk Assessment ; Seasons ; Sex Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although many climate-sensitive environmental exposures are related to mortality and morbidity, there is a paucity of estimates of the public health burden attributable to climate change.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: We estimated the excess current and future public health impacts related to respiratory hospitalizations attributable to extreme heat in summer in New York State (NYS) overall, its geographic regions, and across different demographic strata.<br><br>METHODS: On the basis of threshold temperature and percent risk changes identified from our study in NYS, we estimated recent and future attributable risks related to extreme heat due to climate change using the global climate model with various climate scenarios. We estimated effects of extreme high apparent temperature in summer on respiratory admissions, days hospitalized, direct hospitalization costs, and lost productivity from days hospitalized after adjusting for inflation.<br><br>RESULTS: The estimated respiratory disease burden attributable to extreme heat at baseline (1991-2004) in NYS was 100 hospital admissions, US$644,069 in direct hospitalization costs, and 616 days of hospitalization per year. Projections for 2080-2099 based on three different climate scenarios ranged from 206-607 excess hospital admissions, US$26-$76 million in hospitalization costs, and 1,299-3,744 days of hospitalization per year. Estimated impacts varied by geographic region and population demographics.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We estimated that excess respiratory admissions in NYS due to excessive heat would be 2 to 6 times higher in 2080-2099 than in 1991-2004. When combined with other heat-associated diseases and mortality, the potential public health burden associated with global warming could be substantial.}, }
@article {pmid22920537, year = {2012}, author = {Maasri, A and Gelhaus, J}, title = {Stream invertebrate communities of Mongolia: current structure and expected changes due to climate change.}, journal = {Aquatic biosystems}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {18}, pmid = {22920537}, issn = {2046-9063}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Mongolia's riverine landscape is divided into three watersheds, differing in extent of permafrost, amount of precipitation and in hydrological connectivity between sub-drainages. In order to assess the vulnerability of macroinvertebrate communities to ongoing climate change, we consider the taxonomic and functional structures of stream communities in two major watersheds: The Central Asian Internal Watershed (CAIW) and the Arctic Ocean Watershed (AOW), together covering 86.1% of Mongolia's surface area. We assess the consequences of the hydrological connectivity between sub-drainages on the nestedness and distinctness of the stream communities. And accordingly, we discuss the expected biotic changes to occur in each watershed as a consequence of climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: Gamma and beta diversities were higher in the CAIW than the AOW. High community nestedness was also found in the CAIW along with a higher heterogeneity of macroinvertebrate assemblage structure. Assemblages characteristic of cold headwater streams in the CAIW, were typical of the drainages of the Altai Mountain range. Macroinvertebrate guilds of the CAIW streams exhibited traits reflecting a high stability and low resilience capacity for eutrophication. In contrast, the community of the AOW had lower nestedness and a combination of traits reflecting higher stability and a better resilience capacity to disturbances.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Higher distinctness of stream communities is due to lower connectivity between the drainages. This was the case of the stream macroinvertebrate communities of the two major Mongolian watersheds, where connectivity of streams between sub-drainages is an important element structuring their communities. Considering differences in the communities' guild structure, hydrological connectivity and different magnitudes of upcoming impacts of climate change between the two watersheds, respective stream communities will be affected differently. The hitherto different communities will witness an increasing differentiation and divergent adaptations for the upcoming changes. Accordingly, in an increasing awareness to protect Mongolia's nature, our results encourage adapting conservation planning and management strategies specifically by watershed.}, }
@article {pmid22920070, year = {2012}, author = {Dapul-Hidalgo, G and Bielory, L}, title = {Climate change and allergic diseases.}, journal = {Annals of allergy, asthma &amp; immunology : official publication of the American College of Allergy, Asthma, &amp; Immunology}, volume = {109}, number = {3}, pages = {166-172}, doi = {10.1016/j.anai.2012.02.008}, pmid = {22920070}, issn = {1534-4436}, mesh = {Allergens/*adverse effects/immunology ; Animals ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*etiology/immunology ; }, }
@article {pmid22919829, year = {2012}, author = {Chang, ZF and Han, FG and Zhong, SN}, title = {[Responses of vegetations in Minqin desert area to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {1210-1218}, pmid = {22919829}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Plant Development ; Rain ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Based on the phenological data in 1974-2009 and the plot vegetation data in 2002-2010 as well as the meteorological data, this paper analyzed the responses of the vegetations in Minqin desert area to climate change. In 1961-2010, the air temperature and air humidity in the study area increased, and the increasing rate of the mean annual air temperature was greater than the global level and China's level over the past century. The responses of the vegetations to the air temperature change were mainly manifested in the advance of spring phenology, delay of autumn phenology, and lengthening of growing duration, whereas the responses of the vegetations to precipitation change were mainly manifested in the decrease of vegetation coverage and pure coverage with the decreasing precipitation. The plant density and richness fluctuated with the variation of precipitation, and the vegetation coverage and pure coverage were positively correlated with the annual precipitation firstly, and the precipitation in Jun-July and in April-May secondly. The plant density and richness were positively correlated with the precipitation in September. The advance of the spring phenology was in the order of bud-expansion > bud-opening > beginning of flowering > beginning of leaf-extension and leaf flourish > flower-bud appearance > flower flourishing > end of flowering > fruit-maturity, whereas the delay of autumn phenology was in the order of full leaf-discoloration > beginning of leaf-fall > beginning of leaf-discoloration > end of leaf-fall. As compared with the increase of air temperature in autumn, the increase of air temperature in spring had greater effects on the plant phenology in Minqin desert area.}, }
@article {pmid22908289, year = {2012}, author = {North, GR}, title = {Apportioning natural and forced components in climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {36}, pages = {14285-14286}, pmid = {22908289}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Geography ; Global Warming/*history ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid22908256, year = {2012}, author = {Schmidt, MW and Chang, P and Hertzberg, JE and Them, TR and Ji, L and Otto-Bliesner, BL}, title = {Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {36}, pages = {14348-14352}, pmid = {22908256}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Calcium/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Geography ; *Ice Cover ; Magnesium/analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oxygen Isotopes/analysis ; *Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition.}, }
@article {pmid22903000, year = {2012}, author = {El-Fadel, M and Ghanimeh, S and Maroun, R and Alameddine, I}, title = {Climate change and temperature rise: implications on food- and water-borne diseases.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {437}, number = {}, pages = {15-21}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.07.041}, pmid = {22903000}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Computer Simulation/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disease Outbreaks/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Drinking Water/*microbiology ; Female ; Foodborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Incidence ; Lebanon ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Morbidity ; *Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {This study attempts to quantify climate-induced increases in morbidity rates associated with food- and water-borne illnesses in the context of an urban coastal city, taking Beirut-Lebanon as a study area. A Poisson generalized linear model was developed to assess the impacts of temperature on the morbidity rate. The model was used with four climatic scenarios to simulate a broad spectrum of driving forces and potential social, economic and technologic evolutions. The correlation established in this study exhibits a decrease in the number of illnesses with increasing temperature until reaching a threshold of 19.2 °C, beyond which the number of morbidity cases increases with temperature. By 2050, the results show a substantial increase in food- and water-borne related morbidity of 16 to 28% that can reach up to 42% by the end of the century under A1FI (fossil fuel intensive development) or can be reversed to ~0% under B1 (lowest emissions trajectory), highlighting the need for early mitigation and adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid22900121, year = {2012}, author = {Gamble, JL and Hess, JJ}, title = {Temperature and violent crime in dallas, Texas: relationships and implications of climate change.}, journal = {The western journal of emergency medicine}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {239-246}, pmid = {22900121}, issn = {1936-9018}, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: To investigate relationships between ambient temperatures and violent crimes to determine whether those relationships are consistent across different crime categories and whether they are best described as increasing linear functions, or as curvilinear functions that decrease beyond some temperature threshold. A secondary objective was to consider the implications of the observed relationships for injuries and deaths from violent crimes in the context of a warming climate. To address these questions, we examined the relationship between daily ambient temperatures and daily incidents of violent crime in Dallas, Texas from 1993-1999.<br><br>METHODS: We analyzed the relationships between daily fluctuations in ambient temperature, other meteorological and temporal variables, and rates of daily violent crime using time series piece-wise regression and plots of daily data. Violent crimes, including aggravated assault, homicide, and sexual assault, were analyzed.<br><br>RESULTS: We found that daily mean ambient temperature is related in a curvilinear fashion to daily rates of violent crime with a positive and increasing relationship between temperature and aggravated crime that moderates beyond temperatures of 80&#xb0;F and then turns negative beyond 90&#xb0;F.<br><br>CONCLUSION: While some have characterized the relationship between temperature and violent crime as a continually increasing linear function, leaving open the possibility that aggravated crime will increase in a warmer climate, we conclude that the relationship in Dallas is not linear, but moderates and turns negative at high ambient temperatures. We posit that higher temperatures may encourage people to seek shelter in cooler indoor spaces, and that street crime and other crimes of opportunity are subsequently decreased. This finding suggests that the higher ambient temperatures expected with climate change may result in marginal shifts in violent crime in the short term, but are not likely to be accompanied by markedly higher rates of violent crime and associated increased incidence of injury and death. Additional studies are indicated, across cities at varying latitudes that experience a range of daily ambient temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid22899524, year = {2012}, author = {Tomanek, L and Zuzow, MJ and Hitt, L and Serafini, L and Valenzuela, JJ}, title = {Proteomics of hyposaline stress in blue mussel congeners (genus Mytilus): implications for biogeographic range limits in response to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {215}, number = {Pt 22}, pages = {3905-3916}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.076448}, pmid = {22899524}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Transport/drug effects ; *Climate Change ; Cluster Analysis ; Cytoskeletal Proteins/metabolism ; Electrophoresis, Gel, Two-Dimensional ; Energy Metabolism/drug effects ; *Geography ; Homeostasis/drug effects ; Hypotonic Solutions/pharmacology ; Mytilus edulis/*drug effects/*metabolism ; Oxidative Stress/drug effects ; Principal Component Analysis ; Proteins/*metabolism ; Proteome/metabolism ; Proteomics/*methods ; Salinity ; Sodium Chloride/pharmacology ; Stress, Physiological/*drug effects ; Transport Vesicles/drug effects/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Climate change is affecting species' physiology, pushing environmental tolerance limits and shifting distribution ranges. In addition to temperature and ocean acidification, increasing levels of hyposaline stress due to extreme precipitation events and freshwater runoff may be driving some of the reported recent range shifts in marine organisms. Using two-dimensional gel electrophoresis and tandem mass spectrometry, we characterized the proteomic responses of the cold-adapted blue mussel Mytilus trossulus, a native to the Pacific coast of North America, and the warm-adapted M. galloprovincialis, a Mediterranean invader that has replaced the native from the southern part of its range, but may be limited from expanding north due to hyposaline stress. After exposing laboratory-acclimated mussels for 4 h to two different experimental treatments of hyposaline conditions and one control treatment (24.5, 29.8 and 35.0 psu, respectively) followed by a 0 and 24 h recovery at ambient salinity (35 psu), we detected changes in the abundance of molecular chaperones of the endoplasmic reticulum (ER), indicating protein unfolding, during stress exposure. Other common responses included changes in small GTPases of the Ras superfamily during recovery, which suggests a role for vesicle transport, and cytoskeletal adjustments associated with cell volume, as indicated by cytoskeletal elements such as actin, tubulin, intermediate filaments and several actin-binding regulatory proteins. Changes of proteins involved in energy metabolism and scavenging of reactive oxygen species suggest a reduction in overall energy metabolism during recovery. Principal component analyses of protein abundances suggest that M. trossulus is able to respond to a greater hyposaline challenge (24.5 psu) than M. galloprovincialis (29.8 psu), as shown by changing abundances of proteins involved in protein chaperoning, vesicle transport, cytoskeletal adjustments by actin-regulatory proteins, energy metabolism and oxidative stress. While proteins involved in energy metabolism were lower in M. trossulus during recovery from hyposaline stress, M. galloprovincialis showed higher abundances of those proteins at 29.8 psu, suggesting an energetic constraint in the invader but not the native congener. Both species showed lower levels of oxidative stress proteins during recovery. In addition, oxidative stress proteins associated with protein synthesis and folding in the ER showed lower levels during recovery in M. galloprovincialis, in parallel with ER chaperones, indicating a reduction in protein synthesis. These differences may enable the native M. trossulus to cope with greater hyposaline stress in the northern part of its range, as well as to outcompete M. galloprovincialis in the southern part of M. trossulus' range, thereby preventing M. galloprovincialis from expanding further north.}, }
@article {pmid22898706, year = {2012}, author = {Combest-Friedman, C and Christie, P and Miles, E}, title = {Household perceptions of coastal hazards and climate change in the Central Philippines.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {112}, number = {}, pages = {137-148}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.06.018}, pmid = {22898706}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Philippines ; *Seawater ; }, abstract = {As a tropical archipelagic nation, the Philippines is particularly susceptible to coastal hazards, which are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. To improve coastal hazard management and adaptation planning, it is imperative that climate information be provided at relevant scales and that decision-makers understand the causes and nature of risk in their constituencies. Focusing on a municipality in the Central Philippines, this study examines local meteorological information and explores household perceptions of climate change and coastal hazard risk. First, meteorological data and local perceptions of changing climate conditions are assessed. Perceived changes in climate include an increase in rainfall and rainfall variability, an increase in intensity and frequency of storm events and sea level rise. Second, factors affecting climate change perceptions and perceived risk from coastal hazards are determined through statistical analysis. Factors tested include social status, economic standing, resource dependency and spatial location. Results indicate that perceived risk to coastal hazards is most affected by households' spatial location and resource dependency, rather than socio-economic conditions. However, important differences exist based on the type of hazard and nature of risk being measured. Resource dependency variables are more significant in determining perceived risk from coastal erosion and sea level rise than flood events. Spatial location is most significant in determining households' perceived risk to their household assets, but not perceived risk to their livelihood.}, }
@article {pmid22898475, year = {2012}, author = {Singh, PK and Dhiman, RC}, title = {Climate change and human health: Indian context.}, journal = {Journal of vector borne diseases}, volume = {49}, number = {2}, pages = {55-60}, pmid = {22898475}, issn = {0972-9062}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropods/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*methods ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The article reviews the issue of climate change and health in the Indian context. The importance of climate change leading to estimated loss of above 2.5 million DALYs in southeast Asia, mortality due to heat waves, and the importance of air quality related respiratory diseases, disasters due to excessive floods, malnutrition due to reduction in rice, maize and sorghum crops etc. Latest work undertaken in India, vis-a-vis current scenario and need for further work has been discussed. There is felt need of further studies on assessing the impact on dengue and chikungunya as the transmission dynamics of these diseases involve water availability, storage and life style, etc. Uncertainties and knowledge gaps identified in the studies undertaken so far have also been highlighted. As regards to vector borne diseases, there is a need to concentrate in the areas which are presently free from malaria and with use of best available tools of interventions in already disease endemic areas like northeastern states, the risk of climate change impacts can be minimized.}, }
@article {pmid22897340, year = {2012}, author = {Todd, AS and Manning, AH and Verplanck, PL and Crouch, C and McKnight, DM and Dunham, R}, title = {Climate-change-driven deterioration of water quality in a mineralized watershed.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {46}, number = {17}, pages = {9324-9332}, doi = {10.1021/es3020056}, pmid = {22897340}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Fresh Water/*analysis ; Hydrology ; Metals/*analysis ; Minerals/*analysis ; *Water Quality ; Zinc/analysis ; }, abstract = {A unique 30-year streamwater chemistry data set from a mineralized alpine watershed with naturally acidic, metal-rich water displays dissolved concentrations of Zn and other metals of ecological concern increasing by 100-400% (400-2000 μg/L) during low-flow months, when metal concentrations are highest. SO(4) and other major ions show similar increases. A lack of natural or anthropogenic land disturbances in the watershed during the study period suggests that climate change is the underlying cause. Local mean annual and mean summer air temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.2-1.2 °C/decade since the 1980s. Other climatic and hydrologic indices, including stream discharge during low-flow months, do not display statistically significant trends. Consideration of potential specific causal mechanisms driven by rising temperatures suggests that melting of permafrost and falling water tables (from decreased recharge) are probable explanations for the increasing concentrations. The prospect of future widespread increases in dissolved solutes from mineralized watersheds is concerning given likely negative impacts on downstream ecosystems and water resources, and complications created for the establishment of attainable remediation objectives at mine sites.}, }
@article {pmid22895298, year = {2012}, author = {Kahan, D}, title = {Why we are poles apart on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {488}, number = {7411}, pages = {255}, doi = {10.1038/488255a}, pmid = {22895298}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Cultural Diversity ; Environmental Policy ; Mass Behavior ; Peer Group ; *Propaganda ; *Public Opinion ; }, }
@article {pmid22893012, year = {2012}, author = {Samukawa, M and Ichihara, G and Oka, N and Kusunoki, S}, title = {A case of severe neurotoxicity associated with exposure to 1-bromopropane, an alternative to ozone-depleting or global-warming solvents.}, journal = {Archives of internal medicine}, volume = {172}, number = {16}, pages = {1257-1260}, doi = {10.1001/archinternmed.2012.3987}, pmid = {22893012}, issn = {1538-3679}, mesh = {Adult ; Gait Disorders, Neurologic/*chemically induced/pathology ; Humans ; Hydrocarbons, Brominated/toxicity ; Hypesthesia/*chemically induced/pathology ; Male ; Muscle Weakness/*chemically induced/pathology ; Neurologic Examination ; Neurotoxicity Syndromes/*diagnosis ; *Occupational Exposure ; Pain/*chemically induced/pathology ; Recovery of Function ; Sural Nerve/pathology ; }, abstract = {Health hazard alerts to 1-bromopropane, an alternative to ozone layer-damaging organic solvents, have been issued by some countries. Herein, we report a new case of 1-bromopropane-induced neurotoxicity. A 43-year-old male industrial worker developed muscle weakness, pain, numbness, and gait disturbance. Neurological examination indicated sensory ataxic neuropathy associated with mild impairment of upper motor neurons. He had used 1-bromopropane as a cleaning agent for metal parts at his workplace without appropriate protection. The serum bromide level was elevated at the onset of clinical manifestations. Histopathologic examination of sural nerve biopsy showed axonal damage. Under the tentative diagnosis of 1-bromopropane toxicity, he was kept away from exposure to the solvent. This resulted in gradual improvement of symptoms, recovery of motor function, and resolution of sensory deficits. The diagnosis of 1-bromopropane neurotoxicity in this case was based on details of the work environment, the clinical course, and laboratory and pathologic findings. To our knowledge, this is the first report that describes nerve biopsy findings in a human case.}, }
@article {pmid22891967, year = {2012}, author = {van der Fels-Klerx, HJ and Olesen, JE and Naustvoll, LJ and Friocourt, Y and Mengelers, MJ and Christensen, JH}, title = {Climate change impacts on natural toxins in food production systems, exemplified by deoxynivalenol in wheat and diarrhetic shellfish toxins.}, journal = {Food additives &amp; contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, analysis, control, exposure &amp; risk assessment}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {1647-1659}, doi = {10.1080/19440049.2012.714080}, pmid = {22891967}, issn = {1944-0057}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*chemistry/growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Databases, Factual ; Dinoflagellida/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Europe ; *Food Contamination ; Food Industry/trends ; Forecasting ; Fungi/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Harmful Algal Bloom ; Humans ; Marine Toxins/analysis/*biosynthesis ; Models, Biological ; Mollusca/chemistry/growth &amp; development/parasitology ; North Sea ; Phytoplankton/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Seeds/chemistry/growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Shellfish/*analysis/microbiology ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Trichothecenes/analysis/*biosynthesis ; Triticum/*chemistry/growth &amp; development/microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal grains cultivated in the terrestrial area of north west Europe, and on the frequency of harmful algal blooms and contamination of shellfish with marine biotoxins in the North Sea coastal zone. The study focused on contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol, and on abundance of Dinophysis spp. and the possible relationship with diarrhetic shellfish toxins. The study used currently available data and models. Global and regional climate models were combined with models of crop phenology, mycotoxin prediction models, hydrodynamic models and ecological models, with the output of one model being used as input for the other. In addition, statistical data analyses using existing national datasets from the study area were performed to obtain information on the relationships between Dinophysis spp. cell counts and contamination of shellfish with diarrhetic shellfish toxins as well as on frequency of cereal cropping. In this paper, a summary of the study is presented, and overall conclusions and recommendations are given. Climate change projections for the years 2031-2050 were used as the starting point of the analyses relative to a preceding 20-year baseline period from which the climate change signal was calculated. Results showed that, in general, climate change effects lead to advanced flowering and harvest of wheat, and increased risk of contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol. Blooms of dinoflagellates were estimated to occur more often. If the group of Dinophysis spp. behaves similarly to other flagellates in the future then frequency of harmful algal blooms of Dinophysis spp. may also increase, but consequences for contamination of shellfish with diarrhetic shellfish toxins are uncertain. Climate change will also have indirect effects on toxin contamination, which may be equally important. For example, the frequency of cropping of wheat and maize in north Europe was projected to increase under climate change, which will also increase the risk of contamination of the grains with deoxynivalenol. Risk managers are encouraged to consider the entire range of the predictions of climate change effects on food safety hazards, rather than median or average values only. Furthermore, it is recommended to closely monitor levels of mycotoxins and marine biotoxins in the future, in particular related to risky situations associated with favourable climatic conditions for toxin producing organisms. In particular, it is important to pay attention to the continuity of collecting the right data, and the availability and accessibility of databases. On a European level, it is important to stress the need for harmonisation of terminology and data collection.}, }
@article {pmid22890699, year = {2012}, author = {Dain, K and Hadley, L}, title = {Diabetes and climate change--two interconnected global challenges.}, journal = {Diabetes research and clinical practice}, volume = {97}, number = {2}, pages = {337-339}, doi = {10.1016/j.diabres.2012.07.002}, pmid = {22890699}, issn = {1872-8227}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Diet ; Female ; *Global Health ; Health Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; Health Policy ; Health Priorities ; Humans ; Male ; Sedentary Behavior ; Urbanization ; }, }
@article {pmid22889171, year = {2012}, author = {Sloth Madsen, M and Maule, CF and MacKellar, N and Olesen, JE and Christensen, JH}, title = {Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling.}, journal = {Food additives &amp; contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, analysis, control, exposure &amp; risk assessment}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {1502-1513}, doi = {10.1080/19440049.2012.712059}, pmid = {22889171}, issn = {1944-0057}, mesh = {Agriculture/trends ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/chemistry/growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Databases, Factual ; Europe ; *Food Safety ; Forecasting/methods ; Fungi/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; Mycotoxins/analysis/biosynthesis ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Uncertainty ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented in this paper, applied to relative humidity, but it could be adopted to other variables if needed.}, }
@article {pmid22883918, year = {2012}, author = {Potts, M and Henderson, CE}, title = {Global warming and reproductive health.}, journal = {International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics}, volume = {119 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S64-7}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijgo.2012.03.020}, pmid = {22883918}, issn = {1879-3479}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Africa ; Birth Rate ; Child ; Evidence-Based Practice ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Health Services Accessibility ; Humans ; Maternal Health Services/*organization &amp; administration/standards/supply &amp; distribution ; *Maternal Mortality ; Maternal Welfare ; Middle East ; Poverty ; Pregnancy ; Reproductive Health/*trends ; Reproductive Rights ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The largest absolute numbers of maternal deaths occur among the 40-50 million women who deliver annually without a skilled birth attendant. Most of these deaths occur in countries with a total fertility rate of greater than 4. The combination of global warming and rapid population growth in the Sahel and parts of the Middle East poses a serious threat to reproductive health and to food security. Poverty, lack of resources, and rapid population growth make it unlikely that most women in these countries will have access to skilled birth attendants or emergency obstetric care in the foreseeable future. Three strategies can be implemented to improve women's health and reproductive rights in high-fertility, low-resource settings: (1) make family planning accessible and remove non-evidenced-based barriers to contraception; (2) scale up community distribution of misoprostol for prevention of postpartum hemorrhage and, where it is legal, for medical abortion; and (3) eliminate child marriage and invest in girls and young women, thereby reducing early childbearing.}, }
@article {pmid22880374, year = {2012}, author = {Vapalahti, O and Ruuhela, R and Henttonen, H}, title = {[New infectious diseases in Finland--caused by climate change?].}, journal = {Duodecim; laaketieteellinen aikakauskirja}, volume = {128}, number = {13}, pages = {1381-1387}, pmid = {22880374}, issn = {0012-7183}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Vectors ; Finland/epidemiology ; Humans ; Predatory Behavior ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Although the appearance and spreading of most new infectious diseases are likely to be due to globalization or socio-economic changes, the occurrence of tick-, insect- and rodent-borne infections is at least partially dependent on climate variability and change. Climate influences the distribution and life cycle of vectors of arthropod-borne viruses as well as viral evolution and efficacy of transmission. The natural circulation of many pathogens and the development of epidemics are dependent on complex ecological factors, such as biodiversity and predator-prey cycles that in turn are indirectly linked to climate.}, }
@article {pmid22880067, year = {2012}, author = {Tullus, A and Kupper, P and Sellin, A and Parts, L and Sõber, J and Tullus, T and Lõhmus, K and Sõber, A and Tullus, H}, title = {Climate change at northern latitudes: rising atmospheric humidity decreases transpiration, N-uptake and growth rate of hybrid aspen.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {8}, pages = {e42648}, pmid = {22880067}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 77192/Z/05/Z/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Altitude ; *Atmosphere ; *Climate Change ; Estonia ; *Humidity ; Hybridization, Genetic ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Plant Stems/anatomy &amp; histology ; Plant Transpiration/*physiology ; Populus/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Water/metabolism ; }, abstract = {At northern latitudes a rise in atmospheric humidity and precipitation is predicted as a consequence of global climate change. We studied several growth and functional traits of hybrid aspen (Populus tremula L.×P. tremuloides Michx.) in response to elevated atmospheric humidity (on average 7% over the ambient level) in a free air experimental facility during three growing seasons (2008-2010) in Estonia, which represents northern temperate climate (boreo-nemoral zone). Data were collected from three humidified (H) and three control (C) plots, and analysed using nested linear models. Elevated air humidity significantly reduced height, stem diameter and stem volume increments and transpiration of the trees whereas these effects remained highly significant also after considering the side effects from soil-related confounders within the 2.7 ha study area. Tree leaves were smaller, lighter and had lower leaf mass per area (LMA) in H plots. The magnitude and significance of the humidity treatment effect--inhibition of above-ground growth rate--was more pronounced in larger trees. The lower growth rate in the humidified plots can be partly explained by a decrease in transpiration-driven mass flow of NO(3) (-) in soil, resulting in a significant reduction in the measured uptake of N to foliage in the H plots. The results suggest that the potential growth improvement of fast-growing trees like aspens, due to increasing temperature and atmospheric CO(2) concentration, might be smaller than expected at high latitudes if a rise in atmospheric humidity simultaneously takes place.}, }
@article {pmid22879493, year = {2012}, author = {Clark, PU}, title = {Climate change. Ice sheets in transition.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {337}, number = {6095}, pages = {656-658}, doi = {10.1126/science.1226335}, pmid = {22879493}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22878721, year = {2012}, author = {Lane, JE and Kruuk, LE and Charmantier, A and Murie, JO and Dobson, FS}, title = {Delayed phenology and reduced fitness associated with climate change in a wild hibernator.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {489}, number = {7417}, pages = {554-557}, pmid = {22878721}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Alberta ; Animals ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Health ; Hibernation/*physiology ; Sciuridae/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Seasons ; Snow ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The most commonly reported ecological effects of climate change are shifts in phenologies, in particular of warmer spring temperatures leading to earlier timing of key events. Among animals, however, these reports have been heavily biased towards avian phenologies, whereas we still know comparatively little about other seasonal adaptations, such as mammalian hibernation. Here we show a significant delay (0.47 days per year, over a 20-year period) in the hibernation emergence date of adult females in a wild population of Columbian ground squirrels in Alberta, Canada. This finding was related to the climatic conditions at our study location: owing to within-individual phenotypic plasticity, females emerged later during years of lower spring temperature and delayed snowmelt. Although there has not been a significant annual trend in spring temperature, the date of snowmelt has become progressively later owing to an increasing prevalence of late-season snowstorms. Importantly, years of later emergence were also associated with decreased individual fitness. There has consequently been a decline in mean fitness (that is, population growth rate) across the past two decades. Our results show that plastic responses to climate change may be driven by climatic trends other than increasing temperature, and may be associated with declines in individual fitness and, hence, population viability.}, }
@article {pmid22877742, year = {2012}, author = {Arias, ME and Cochrane, TA and Piman, T and Kummu, M and Caruso, BS and Killeen, TJ}, title = {Quantifying changes in flooding and habitats in the Tonle Sap Lake (Cambodia) caused by water infrastructure development and climate change in the Mekong Basin.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {112}, number = {}, pages = {53-66}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.07.003}, pmid = {22877742}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Cambodia ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; *Floods ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The economic value of the Tonle Sap Lake Floodplain to Cambodia is arguably among the highest provided to a nation by a single ecosystem around the world. Nonetheless, the Mekong River Basin is changing rapidly due to accelerating water infrastructure development (hydropower, irrigation, flood control, and water supply) and climate change, bringing considerable modifications to the flood pulse of the Tonle Sap Lake in the foreseeable future. This paper presents research conducted to determine how the historical flooding regime, together with human action, influenced landscape patterns of habitats in the Tonle Sap Lake, and how these habitats might shift as a result of hydrological changes. Maps of water depth, annual flood duration, and flood frequency were created for recent historical hydrological conditions and for simulated future scenarios of water infrastructure development and climate change. Relationships were then established between the historical flood maps and land cover, and these were subsequently applied to assess potential changes to habitat cover in future decades. Five habitat groups were clearly distinguishable based on flood regime, physiognomic patterns, and human activity: (1) Open water, flooded for 12 months in an average hydrological year; (2) Gallery forest, with flood duration of 9 months annually; (3) Seasonally flooded habitats, flooded 5-8 months and dominated by shrublands and grasslands; (4) transitional habitats, flooded 1-5 months and dominated by abandoned agricultural fields, receding rice/floating rice, and lowland grasslands; and (5) Rainfed habitats, flooded up to 1 month and consisting mainly of wet season rice fields and village crops. It was found that water infrastructure development could increase the area of open water (+18 to +21%) and the area of rainfed habitats (+10 to +14%), while reducing the area covered with seasonally flooded habitats (-13 to -22%) and gallery forest (-75 to -83%). Habitat cover shifts as a result of climate change include a net increase of open water (2-21%), as well as a reduction of rainfed habitats by 2-5% and seasonally flooded habitats by 5-11%. Findings from this study will help guide on-going and future conservation and restoration efforts throughout this unique and critical ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid22874943, year = {2012}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Heatwaves blamed on global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {488}, number = {7410}, pages = {143-144}, pmid = {22874943}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Disasters/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Droughts/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Policy ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Hot Temperature ; *Human Activities ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid22874755, year = {2012}, author = {Ziska, LH and Bunce, JA and Shimono, H and Gealy, DR and Baker, JT and Newton, PC and Reynolds, MP and Jagadish, KS and Zhu, C and Howden, M and Wilson, LT}, title = {Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {279}, number = {1745}, pages = {4097-4105}, pmid = {22874755}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agriculture/trends ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/metabolism/*physiology ; Edible Grain/metabolism/*physiology ; *Food Supply ; Photosynthesis ; Selection, Genetic ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO(2) to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO(2) and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO(2) responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change.}, }
@article {pmid22873814, year = {2012}, author = {Hawlitschek, O and Hendrich, L and Espeland, M and Toussaint, EF and Genner, MJ and Balke, M}, title = {Pleistocene climate change promoted rapid diversification of aquatic invertebrates in Southeast Australia.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {142}, pmid = {22873814}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Australia ; Bayes Theorem ; Cell Nucleus/genetics ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/*classification/genetics ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Ecosystem ; Genes, Insect ; *Genetic Speciation ; Models, Biological ; Models, Genetic ; *Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Pleistocene Ice Ages were the most recent geohistorical event of major global impact, but their consequences for most parts of the Southern hemisphere remain poorly known. We investigate a radiation of ten species of Sternopriscus, the most species-rich genus of epigean Australian diving beetles. These species are distinct based on genital morphology but cannot be distinguished readily by mtDNA and nDNA because of genotype sharing caused by incomplete lineage sorting. Their genetic similarity suggests a Pleistocene origin.<br><br>RESULTS: We use a dataset of 3858 bp of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA to reconstruct a phylogeny of Sternopriscus using gene and species trees. Diversification analyses support the finding of a recent rapid speciation event with estimated speciation rates of up to 2.40 species per MY, which is considerably higher than the proposed average rate of 0.16 species per MY for insects. Additionally, we use ecological niche modeling and analyze data on habitat preferences to test for niche divergence between species of the recent Sternopriscus radiation. These analyses show that the species can be characterized by a set of ecological variables referring to habitat, climate and altitude.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the repeated isolation of populations in glacial refugia might have led to divergent ecological adaptations and the fixation of morphological traits supporting reproductive isolation and therefore may have promoted speciation. The recent Sternopriscus radiation fulfills many characteristics of a species flock and would be the first described example of an aquatic insect species flock. We argue that the species of this group may represent a stage in speciation past the species flock condition because of their mostly broad and often non-overlapping ranges and preferences for different habitat types.}, }
@article {pmid22873633, year = {2012}, author = {Blashki, G and Abelsohn, A and Woollard, R and Arya, N and Parkes, MW and Kendal, P and Bell, E and Bell, RW}, title = {General Practitioners' responses to global climate change - lessons from clinical experience and the clinical method.}, journal = {Asia Pacific family medicine}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {6}, pmid = {22873633}, issn = {1447-056X}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is a global public health problem that will require complex thinking if meaningful and effective solutions are to be achieved. In this conceptual paper we argue that GPs have much to bring to the issue of climate change from their wide-ranging clinical experience and from the principles underpinning their clinical methods. This experience and thinking calls forth particular contributions GPs can and should make to debate and action.<br><br>DISCUSSION: We contend that the privileged experience and GP way of thinking can make valuable contributions when applied to climate change solutions. These include a lifetime of experience, reflection and epistemological application to first doing no harm, managing uncertainty, the ability to make necessary decisions while possessing incomplete information, an appreciation of complex adaptive systems, maintenance of homeostasis, vigilance for unintended consequences, and an appreciation of the importance of transdisciplinarity and interprofessionalism.<br><br>SUMMARY: General practitioners have a long history of public health advocacy and in the case of climate change may bring a way of approaching complex human problems that could be applied to the dilemmas of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22873353, year = {2013}, author = {Rodríguez-Morales, AJ}, title = {Climate change, climate variability and brucellosis.}, journal = {Recent patents on anti-infective drug discovery}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {4-12}, doi = {10.2174/1574891x11308010003}, pmid = {22873353}, issn = {2212-4071}, mesh = {Animals ; Brucella/pathogenicity/*physiology ; Brucellosis/*epidemiology/*microbiology/transmission ; Brucellosis, Bovine/epidemiology ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; South America ; Zoonoses/microbiology/transmission ; }, abstract = {In addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods, climate change is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, altering the composition of global atmosphere. This phenomenon continues to be a significant and global threat for the humankind, and its impact compromises many aspects of the society at different levels, including health. The impact of climate change on zoonotic diseases has been largely ignored, particularly brucellosis. We here review some direct and indirect evidences of the impact of climate change and climate variability on brucellosis.}, }
@article {pmid22872385, year = {2012}, author = {Carneiro, CD and Toniolo, JC}, title = {'Hot' Earth in the mass media: the reliability of news reports on global warming.}, journal = {Historia, ciencias, saude--Manguinhos}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {369-390}, doi = {10.1590/s0104-59702012000200002}, pmid = {22872385}, issn = {1678-4758}, abstract = {Research into the reliability of news reports on 'global warming' published by the UOL media group, Folha.com and Folha de S. Paulo reveals a tendency for positions to be polarized between complete agreement with the assertion that the causes are entirely anthropogenic (the dominant position) and complete denial. The sample comprised 676 news items from more than 3,000 published on the topic between October 2007 and October 2008. The study tested the hypothesis that the news output of the three media outlets is dominated by the positions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In absolute terms, the panel is the most frequently cited source, since just seven news items comprised exceptions to the 'consensus.' These contrary opinions made up 1.03% of the sample.}, }
@article {pmid22869800, year = {2012}, author = {Singarayer, JS and Davies-Barnard, T}, title = {Regional climate change mitigation with crops: context and assessment.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {370}, number = {1974}, pages = {4301-4316}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2012.0010}, pmid = {22869800}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Biomedical Engineering ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Ecosystem ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {The intention of this review is to place crop albedo biogeoengineering in the wider picture of climate manipulation. Crop biogeoengineering is considered within the context of the long-term modification of the land surface for agriculture over several thousand years. Biogeoengineering is also critiqued in relation to other geoengineering schemes in terms of mitigation power and adherence to social principles for geoengineering. Although its impact is small and regional, crop biogeoengineering could be a useful and inexpensive component of an ensemble of geoengineering schemes to provide temperature mitigation. The method should not detrimentally affect food security and there may even be positive impacts on crop productivity, although more laboratory and field research is required in this area to understand the underlying mechanisms.}, }
@article {pmid22869797, year = {2012}, author = {Goldblatt, C and Watson, AJ}, title = {The runaway greenhouse: implications for future climate change, geoengineering and planetary atmospheres.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {370}, number = {1974}, pages = {4197-4216}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2012.0004}, pmid = {22869797}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {The ultimate climate emergency is a 'runaway greenhouse': a hot and water-vapour-rich atmosphere limits the emission of thermal radiation to space, causing runaway warming. Warming ceases only after the surface reaches approximately 1400 K and emits radiation in the near-infrared, where water is not a good greenhouse gas. This would evaporate the entire ocean and exterminate all planetary life. Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse in the past, and we expect that the Earth will in around 2 billion years as solar luminosity increases. But could we bring on such a catastrophe prematurely, by our current climate-altering activities? Here, we review what is known about the runaway greenhouse to answer this question, describing the various limits on outgoing radiation and how climate will evolve between these. The good news is that almost all lines of evidence lead us to believe that is unlikely to be possible, even in principle, to trigger full a runaway greenhouse by addition of non-condensible greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, our understanding of the dynamics, thermodynamics, radiative transfer and cloud physics of hot and steamy atmospheres is weak. We cannot therefore completely rule out the possibility that human actions might cause a transition, if not to full runaway, then at least to a much warmer climate state than the present one. High climate sensitivity might provide a warning. If we, or more likely our remote descendants, are threatened with a runaway greenhouse, then geoengineering to reflect sunlight might be life's only hope. Injecting reflective aerosols into the stratosphere would be too short-lived, and even sunshades in space might require excessive maintenance. In the distant future, modifying Earth's orbit might provide a sustainable solution. The runaway greenhouse also remains relevant in planetary sciences and astrobiology: as extrasolar planets smaller and nearer to their stars are detected, some will be in a runaway greenhouse state.}, }
@article {pmid22869707, year = {2012}, author = {Hansen, J and Sato, M and Ruedy, R}, title = {Perception of climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {37}, pages = {E2415-23}, pmid = {22869707}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Climate Change/*history/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Public Opinion ; *Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {"Climate dice," describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22868189, year = {2012}, author = {Revich, B and Tokarevich, N and Parkinson, AJ}, title = {Climate change and zoonotic infections in the Russian Arctic.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {71}, number = {}, pages = {18792}, pmid = {22868189}, issn = {2242-3982}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Russia/epidemiology ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change in the Russian Arctic is more pronounced than in any other part of the country. Between 1955 and 2000, the annual average air temperature in the Russian North increased by 1.2°C. During the same period, the mean temperature of upper layer of permafrost increased by 3°C. Climate change in Russian Arctic increases the risks of the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases. This review presents data on morbidity rates among people, domestic animals and wildlife in the Russian Arctic, focusing on the potential climate related emergence of such diseases as tick-borne encephalitis, tularemia, brucellosis, leptospirosis, rabies, and anthrax.}, }
@article {pmid22866024, year = {2012}, author = {Mead, E and Roser-Renouf, C and Rimal, RN and Flora, JA and Maibach, EW and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Information Seeking about Global Climate Change among Adolescents: The Role of Risk Perceptions, Efficacy Beliefs and Parental Influences.}, journal = {Atlantic journal of communication}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {31-52}, pmid = {22866024}, issn = {1545-6870}, support = {T32 CA009314/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is likely to have significant impacts on public health. Effective communication is critical to informing public decision making and behavior to mitigate climate change. An effective method of audience segmentation, the risk perception attitude (RPA) framework has been previously tested with other health behaviors and classifies people into 4 groups on the basis of their perceptions of risk and beliefs about personal efficacy. The 4 groups - indifference (low risk, weak efficacy), proactive (low risk, strong efficacy), avoidance (high risk, weak efficacy), and responsive (high risk, strong efficacy) - are hypothesized to differ in their self-protective behaviors and in their motivations to seek information. In this paper, we extend the RPA framework in two ways. First, we use it at the household level to determine whether parental classifications into the 4 groups are associated with their teenage children's classification into the same 4 groups. Second, we predict adolescent information-seeking behaviors on the basis of their and their parents' membership in the 4 RPA groups. Results (N = 523 parent-adolescent pairs) indicated that parental membership in the 4 RPA groups was significantly associated with children's membership in the same 4 groups. Furthermore, the RPA framework was a significant predictor of adolescent information-seeking: those in the responsive and avoidance groups sought more information on climate change than the indifference group. Family communication on global warming was positively associated with adolescents' information-seeking. Implications for interventions are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid22863150, year = {2012}, author = {Pasini, S and Torresan, S and Rizzi, J and Zabeo, A and Critto, A and Marcomini, A}, title = {Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {440}, number = {}, pages = {219-235}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.06.096}, pmid = {22863150}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant outcomes from the described RRA application highlighted that potential climate change impacts will occur with different extension and magnitude in the case study area. Particularly, qualitative and quantitative impacts on groundwater will occur with more severe consequences in the wettest and in the driest scenario (respectively). Moreover, such impacts will likely have little direct effects on related ecosystems - croplands, forests and natural environments - lying along the spring area (about 12% of croplands and 2% of natural environments at risk) while more severe consequences will indirectly occur on natural and anthropic systems through the reduction in quality and quantity of water availability for agricultural and other uses (about 80% of agricultural areas and 27% of groundwater bodies at risk).}, }
@article {pmid22860062, year = {2012}, author = {Monahan, WB and Tingley, MW}, title = {Niche tracking and rapid establishment of distributional equilibrium in the house sparrow show potential responsiveness of species to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {e42097}, pmid = {22860062}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; North America ; Sparrows/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The ability of species to respond to novel future climates is determined in part by their physiological capacity to tolerate climate change and the degree to which they have reached and continue to maintain distributional equilibrium with the environment. While broad-scale correlative climatic measurements of a species' niche are often described as estimating the fundamental niche, it is unclear how well these occupied portions actually approximate the fundamental niche per se, versus the fundamental niche that exists in environmental space, and what fitness values bounding the niche are necessary to maintain distributional equilibrium. Here, we investigate these questions by comparing physiological and correlative estimates of the thermal niche in the introduced North American house sparrow (Passer domesticus). Our results indicate that occupied portions of the fundamental niche derived from temperature correlations closely approximate the centroid of the existing fundamental niche calculated on a fitness threshold of 50% population mortality. Using these niche measures, a 75-year time series analysis (1930-2004) further shows that: (i) existing fundamental and occupied niche centroids did not undergo directional change, (ii) interannual changes in the two niche centroids were correlated, (iii) temperatures in North America moved through niche space in a net centripetal fashion, and consequently, (iv) most areas throughout the range of the house sparrow tracked the existing fundamental niche centroid with respect to at least one temperature gradient. Following introduction to a new continent, the house sparrow rapidly tracked its thermal niche and established continent-wide distributional equilibrium with respect to major temperature gradients. These dynamics were mediated in large part by the species' broad thermal physiological tolerances, high dispersal potential, competitive advantage in human-dominated landscapes, and climatically induced changes to the realized environmental space. Such insights may be used to conceptualize mechanistic climatic niche models in birds and other taxa.}, }
@article {pmid22854785, year = {2012}, author = {Astaraie-Imani, M and Kapelan, Z and Fu, G and Butler, D}, title = {Assessing the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the river water quality in an integrated urban wastewater system in the UK.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {112}, number = {}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.06.039}, pmid = {22854785}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Rivers ; United Kingdom ; Urbanization ; Wastewater ; }, abstract = {Climate change and urbanisation are key factors affecting the future of water quality and quantity in urbanised catchments and are associated with significant uncertainty. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impacts of climate change and urbanisation on the receiving water quality in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System (IUWS) in the UK. The impacts of intervening system operational control parameters are also investigated. Impact is determined by a detailed modelling study using both local and global sensitivity analysis methods together with correlation analysis. The results obtained from the case-study analysed clearly demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanisation is likely to lead to worsening river water quality in terms of both frequency and magnitude of breaching threshold dissolved oxygen and ammonium concentrations. The results obtained also reveal the key climate change and urbanisation parameters that have the largest negative impact as well as the most responsive IUWS operational control parameters including major dependencies between all these parameters. This information can be further utilised to adapt future IUWS operation and/or design which, in turn, should make these systems more resilient to future climate and urbanisation changes.}, }
@article {pmid22854103, year = {2012}, author = {Jarvie, HP and Jickells, TD and Skeffington, RA and Withers, PJ}, title = {Climate change and coupling of macronutrient cycles along the atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater and estuarine continuum.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {434}, number = {}, pages = {252-258}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.07.051}, pmid = {22854103}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Atmosphere ; *Climate Change ; *Estuaries ; *Water ; }, abstract = {This paper provides an introduction to the Special Issue on "Climate Change and Coupling of Macronutrient Cycles along the Atmospheric, Terrestrial, Freshwater and Estuarine Continuum", dedicated to Colin Neal on his retirement. It is not intended to be a review of this vast subject, but an attempt to synthesize some of the major findings from the 22 contributions to the Special Issue in the context of what is already known. The major research challenges involved in understanding coupled macronutrient cycles in these environmental media are highlighted, and the difficulties of making credible predictions of the effects of climate change are discussed. Of particular concern is the possibility of interactions which will enhance greenhouse gas concentrations and provide positive feedback to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid22852794, year = {2012}, author = {Jordal, BH and Cognato, AI}, title = {Molecular phylogeny of bark and ambrosia beetles reveals multiple origins of fungus farming during periods of global warming.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {133}, pmid = {22852794}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Ambrosia ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Coleoptera/*classification/genetics/*microbiology/physiology ; Ecology ; Fungi ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Fungus farming is an unusual life style in insects that has evolved many times in the wood boring weevils named 'ambrosia beetles'. Multiple occurrences of this behaviour allow for a detailed comparison of the different origins of fungus farming through time, its directionality, and possible ancestral states. We tested these hypotheses with a phylogeny representing the largest data set to date, nearly 4 kb of nucleotides from COI, EF-1α, CAD, ArgK, 28S, and 200 scolytine taxa.<br><br>RESULTS: Phylogenetic analyses using Bayesian or parsimony approaches placed the root of Scolytinae close to the tribe Scolytini and Microborus, but otherwise indicated low resolution at older nodes. More recent clades were well resolved, including ten origins of fungus farming. There were no subsequent reversals to bark or phloem feeding in the fungus farming clades. The oldest origin of fungus farming was estimated near 50 Ma, long after the origin of Scolytinae (100-120 Ma). Younger origins included the species rich Xyleborini, dated to 21 Ma. Sister group comparisons and test of independence between traits indicated that neither gregarious larval feeding nor regular inbreeding by sibling mating was strongly correlated with the origin of fungus farming.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Origins of fungus farming corresponded mainly with two periods of global warming in the Cenozoic era, which were characterised by broadly distributed tropical forests. Hence, it seems likely that warm climates and expanding tropical angiosperm forests played critical roles in the successful radiation of diverse fungus farming groups. However, further investigation will likely reveal additional biological factors that promote fungus farming.}, }
@article {pmid22848536, year = {2012}, author = {Cox, R and Revie, CW and Sanchez, J}, title = {The use of expert opinion to assess the risk of emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases in Canada associated with climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {e41590}, pmid = {22848536}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required, and given limited resources, policy decision makers need rational methods with which to prioritise pathogen threats. Here expert opinion was collected to determine what criteria could be used to prioritise diseases according to the likelihood of emergence in response to climate change and according to their impact. We identified a total of 40 criteria that might be used for this purpose in the Canadian context. The opinion of 64 experts from academic, government and independent backgrounds was collected to determine the importance of the criteria. A weight was calculated for each criterion based on the expert opinion. The five that were considered most influential on disease emergence or impact were: potential economic impact, severity of disease in the general human population, human case fatality rate, the type of climate that the pathogen can tolerate and the current climatic conditions in Canada. There was effective consensus about the influence of some criteria among participants, while for others there was considerable variation. The specific climate criteria that were most likely to influence disease emergence were: an annual increase in temperature, an increase in summer temperature, an increase in summer precipitation and to a lesser extent an increase in winter temperature. These climate variables were considered to be most influential on vector-borne diseases and on food and water-borne diseases. Opinion about the influence of climate on air-borne diseases and diseases spread by direct/indirect contact were more variable. The impact of emerging diseases on the human population was deemed more important than the impact on animal populations.}, }
@article {pmid22846698, year = {2012}, author = {McConnell, J and Reams, P}, title = {Climate change: transforming a biased atmosphere.}, journal = {Nursing management}, volume = {43}, number = {8}, pages = {36-40}, doi = {10.1097/01.NUMA.0000416405.37861.86}, pmid = {22846698}, issn = {1538-8670}, mesh = {Cultural Competency ; *Cultural Diversity ; Hospital Units/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; *Interprofessional Relations ; Nursing Administration Research ; Nursing Staff, Hospital/*organization &amp; administration ; Organizational Culture ; *Prejudice ; }, }
@article {pmid22837819, year = {2012}, author = {Reside, AE and Vanderwal, J and Kutt, AS}, title = {Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {705-718}, pmid = {22837819}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this "realistic" dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species' range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species.}, }
@article {pmid22837501, year = {2012}, author = {Balter, M}, title = {Climate change. Using radiocarbon to go beyond good faith in measuring CO2 emissions.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {337}, number = {6093}, pages = {400-401}, doi = {10.1126/science.337.6093.400}, pmid = {22837501}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22836921, year = {2012}, author = {Fu, Y and Grumbine, RE and Wilkes, A and Wang, Y and Xu, JC and Yang, YP}, title = {Climate change adaptation among Tibetan pastoralists: challenges in enhancing local adaptation through policy support.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {50}, number = {4}, pages = {607-621}, pmid = {22836921}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Animal Husbandry ; *Climate Change ; Community-Institutional Relations ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environmental Policy ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Middle Aged ; Policy Making ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {While researchers are aware that a mix of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK), community-based resource management institutions, and higher-level institutions and policies can facilitate pastoralists' adaptation to climate change, policy makers have been slow to understand these linkages. Two critical issues are to what extent these factors play a role, and how to enhance local adaptation through government support. We investigated these issues through a case study of two pastoral communities on the Tibetan Plateau in China employing an analytical framework to understand local climate adaptation processes. We concluded that LEK and community-based institutions improve adaptation outcomes for Tibetan pastoralists through shaping and mobilizing resource availability to reduce risks. Higher-level institutions and policies contribute by providing resources from outside communities. There are dynamic interrelationships among these factors that can lead to support, conflict, and fragmentation. Government policy could enhance local adaptation through improvement of supportive relationships among these factors. While central government policies allow only limited room for overt integration of local knowledge/institutions, local governments often have some flexibility to buffer conflicts. In addition, government policies to support market-based economic development have greatly benefited adaptation outcomes for pastoralists. Overall, in China, there are still questions over how to create innovative institutions that blend LEK and community-based institutions with government policy making.}, }
@article {pmid22829795, year = {2012}, author = {Proust, K and Newell, B and Brown, H and Capon, A and Browne, C and Burton, A and Dixon, J and Mu, L and Zarafu, M}, title = {Human health and climate change: leverage points for adaptation in urban environments.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {2134-2158}, pmid = {22829795}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Motor Vehicles ; Systems Analysis ; *Urban Health ; }, abstract = {The design of adaptation strategies that promote urban health and well-being in the face of climate change requires an understanding of the feedback interactions that take place between the dynamical state of a city, the health of its people, and the state of the planet. Complexity, contingency and uncertainty combine to impede the growth of such systemic understandings. In this paper we suggest that the collaborative development of conceptual models can help a group to identify potential leverage points for effective adaptation. We describe a three-step procedure that leads from the development of a high-level system template, through the selection of a problem space that contains one or more of the group's adaptive challenges, to a specific conceptual model of a sub-system of importance to the group. This procedure is illustrated by a case study of urban dwellers' maladaptive dependence on private motor vehicles. We conclude that a system dynamics approach, revolving around the collaborative construction of a set of conceptual models, can help communities to improve their adaptive capacity, and so better meet the challenge of maintaining, and even improving, urban health in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22829324, year = {2012}, author = {Ford, JD and Bolton, K and Shirley, J and Pearce, T and Tremblay, M and Westlake, M}, title = {Mapping human dimensions of climate change research in the Canadian Arctic.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41}, number = {8}, pages = {808-822}, pmid = {22829324}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Inuit ; }, abstract = {This study maps current understanding and research trends on the human dimensions of climate change (HDCC) in the eastern and central Canadian Arctic. Developing a systematic literature review methodology, 117 peer reviewed articles are identified and examined using quantitative and qualitative methods. The research highlights the rapid expansion of HDCC studies over the last decade. Early scholarship was dominated by work documenting Inuit observations of climate change, with research employing vulnerability concepts and terminology now common. Adaptation studies which seek to identify and evaluate opportunities to reduce vulnerability to climate change and take advantage of new opportunities remain in their infancy. Over the last 5 years there has been an increase social science-led research, with many studies employing key principles of community-based research. We currently have baseline understanding of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the region, but key gaps are evident. Future research needs to target significant geographic disparities in understanding, consider risks and opportunities posed by climate change outside of the subsistence hunting sector, complement case study research with regional analyses, and focus on identifying and characterizing sustainable and feasible adaptation interventions.}, }
@article {pmid22828236, year = {2012}, author = {Vineis, P}, title = {[Negationism: global warming and other skeptics].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {36}, number = {3-4}, pages = {215-216}, pmid = {22828236}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Culture ; *Global Warming ; Public Opinion ; }, }
@article {pmid22827476, year = {2012}, author = {De Laender, F and Verschuren, D and Bindler, R and Thas, O and Janssen, CR}, title = {Biodiversity of freshwater diatom communities during 1000 years of metal mining, land use, and climate change in central Sweden.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {46}, number = {16}, pages = {9097-9105}, doi = {10.1021/es3015452}, pmid = {22827476}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Diatoms/*classification ; *Fresh Water ; *Mining ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {We subjected a unique set of high-quality paleoecological data to statistical modeling to examine if the biological richness and evenness of freshwater diatom communities in the Falun area, a historical copper (Cu) mining region in central Sweden, was negatively influenced by 1000 years of metal exposure. Contrary to ecotoxicological predictions, we found no negative relation between biodiversity and the sedimentary concentrations of eight metals. Strikingly, our analysis listed metals (Co, Fe, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb) or the fractional land cover of cultivated crops, meadow, and herbs indicating land disturbance as potentially promoting biodiversity. However, correlation between metal- and land-cover trends prevented concluding which of these two covariate types positively affected biodiversity. Because historical aqueous metal concentrations--inferred from solid-water partitioning--approached experimental toxicity thresholds for freshwater algae, positive effects of metal mining on biodiversity are unlikely. Instead, the positive relationship between biodiversity and historical land-cover change can be explained by the increasing proportion of opportunistic species when anthropogenic disturbance intensifies. Our analysis illustrates that focusing on the direct toxic effects of metals alone may yield inaccurate environmental assessments on time scales relevant for biodiversity conservation.}, }
@article {pmid22827234, year = {2012}, author = {Elsgaard, L and Børgesen, CD and Olesen, JE and Siebert, S and Ewert, F and Peltonen-Sainio, P and Rötter, RP and Skjelvåg, AO}, title = {Shifts in comparative advantages for maize, oat and wheat cropping under climate change in Europe.}, journal = {Food additives &amp; contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, analysis, control, exposure &amp; risk assessment}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {1514-1526}, doi = {10.1080/19440049.2012.700953}, pmid = {22827234}, issn = {1944-0057}, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics/trends ; Animals ; Avena/chemistry/economics/*growth &amp; development/microbiology ; *Climate Change/economics ; Crops, Agricultural/chemistry/economics/*growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Europe ; *Food Safety ; Forecasting/methods ; Fungi/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Models, Economic ; Mycotoxins/analysis/biosynthesis ; Soil Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Triticum/chemistry/economics/*growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Uncertainty ; Weather ; Zea mays/chemistry/economics/*growth &amp; development/microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is anticipated to affect European agriculture, including the risk of emerging or re-emerging feed and food hazards. Indirectly, climate change may influence such hazards (e.g. the occurrence of mycotoxins) due to geographic shifts in the distribution of major cereal cropping systems and the consequences this may have for crop rotations. This paper analyses the impact of climate on cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat on a 50-km square grid across Europe (45-65°N) and provides model-based estimates of the changes in cropping shares in response to changes in temperature and precipitation as projected for the time period around 2040 by two regional climate models (RCM) with a moderate and a strong climate change signal, respectively. The projected cropping shares are based on the output from the two RCMs and on algorithms derived for the relation between meteorological data and observed cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat. The observed cropping shares show a south-to-north gradient, where maize had its maximum at 45-55°N, oat had its maximum at 55-65°N, and wheat was more evenly distributed along the latitudes in Europe. Under the projected climate changes, there was a general increase in maize cropping shares, whereas for oat no areas showed distinct increases. For wheat, the projected changes indicated a tendency towards higher cropping shares in the northern parts and lower cropping shares in the southern parts of the study area. The present modelling approach represents a simplification of factors determining the distribution of cereal crops, and also some uncertainties in the data basis were apparent. A promising way of future model improvement could be through a systematic analysis and inclusion of other variables, such as key soil properties and socio-economic conditions, influencing the comparative advantages of specific crops.}, }
@article {pmid22827123, year = {2012}, author = {Skagen, SK and Adams, AA}, title = {Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {1131-1145}, doi = {10.1890/11-0291.1}, pmid = {22827123}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Clutch Size/physiology ; Colorado ; Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Biological ; Nesting Behavior ; Passeriformes/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Time Factors ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {The influence of recent climate change on the world's biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation; yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 3 degrees C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.}, }
@article {pmid22826257, year = {2012}, author = {Wei, T and Yang, S and Moore, JC and Shi, P and Cui, X and Duan, Q and Xu, B and Dai, Y and Yuan, W and Wei, X and Yang, Z and Wen, T and Teng, F and Gao, Y and Chou, J and Yan, X and Wei, Z and Guo, Y and Jiang, Y and Gao, X and Wang, K and Zheng, X and Ren, F and Lv, S and Yu, Y and Liu, B and Luo, Y and Li, W and Ji, D and Feng, J and Wu, Q and Cheng, H and He, J and Fu, C and Ye, D and Xu, G and Dong, W}, title = {Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {32}, pages = {12911-12915}, pmid = {22826257}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Developed Countries ; *Developing Countries ; Models, Theoretical ; Public Policy ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60-80%, developing countries about 20-40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3-2/3 (CESM 33-67%, BNU-ESM 35-65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2 °C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid22826254, year = {2012}, author = {Miller, W and Schuster, SC and Welch, AJ and Ratan, A and Bedoya-Reina, OC and Zhao, F and Kim, HL and Burhans, RC and Drautz, DI and Wittekindt, NE and Tomsho, LP and Ibarra-Laclette, E and Herrera-Estrella, L and Peacock, E and Farley, S and Sage, GK and Rode, K and Obbard, M and Montiel, R and Bachmann, L and Ingólfsson, O and Aars, J and Mailund, T and Wiig, O and Talbot, SL and Lindqvist, C}, title = {Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture and demographic footprints of past climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {36}, pages = {E2382-90}, pmid = {22826254}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {UL1 RR033184/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; UL1 TR000127/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States ; /HHMI/Howard Hughes Medical Institute/United States ; UL1 RR033184-01/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*genetics ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Base Sequence ; Climate Change/*history ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Genetic Markers/genetics ; *Genetics, Population ; Genome/*genetics ; History, Ancient ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Species Specificity ; Ursidae/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000- to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaska's Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5-10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4-5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.}, }
@article {pmid22822441, year = {2012}, author = {Allen, GA and Marr, KL and McCormick, LJ and Hebda, RJ}, title = {The impact of Pleistocene climate change on an ancient arctic-alpine plant: multiple lineages of disparate history in Oxyria digyna.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {3}, pages = {649-665}, pmid = {22822441}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The ranges of arctic-alpine species have shifted extensively with Pleistocene climate changes and glaciations. Using sequence data from the trnH-psbA and trnT-trnL chloroplast DNA spacer regions, we investigated the phylogeography of the widespread, ancient (>3 million years) arctic-alpine plant Oxyria digyna (Polygonaceae). We identified 45 haplotypes and six highly divergent major lineages; estimated ages of these lineages (time to most recent common ancestor, T(MRCA)) ranged from ∼0.5 to 2.5 million years. One lineage is widespread in the arctic, a second is restricted to the southern Rocky Mountains of the western United States, and a third was found only in the Himalayan and Altai regions of Asia. Three other lineages are widespread in western North America, where they overlap extensively. The high genetic diversity and the presence of divergent major cpDNA lineages within Oxyria digyna reflect its age and suggest that it was widespread during much of its history. The distributions of individual lineages indicate repeated spread of Oxyria digyna through North America over multiple glacial cycles. During the Last Glacial Maximum it persisted in multiple refugia in western North America, including Beringia, south of the continental ice, and within the northern limits of the Cordilleran ice sheet. Our data contribute to a growing body of evidence that arctic-alpine species have migrated from different source regions over multiple glacial cycles and that cryptic refugia contributed to persistence through the Last Glacial Maximum.}, }
@article {pmid22822430, year = {2012}, author = {Harvey, CJ and Moriarty, PE and Salathé, EP}, title = {Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering bald eagles.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {3}, pages = {501-514}, pmid = {22822430}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are recovering from severe population declines, and are exerting pressure on food resources in some areas. Thousands of bald eagles overwinter near Puget Sound, primarily to feed on chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) carcasses. We used modeling techniques to examine how anticipated climate changes will affect energetic demands of overwintering bald eagles. We applied a regional downscaling method to two global climate change models to obtain hourly temperature, precipitation, wind, and longwave radiation estimates at the mouths of three Puget Sound tributaries (the Skagit, Hamma Hamma, and Nisqually rivers) in two decades, the 1970s and the 2050s. Climate data were used to drive bald eagle bioenergetics models from December to February for each river, year, and decade. Bald eagle bioenergetics were insensitive to climate change: despite warmer winters in the 2050s, particularly near the Nisqually River, bald eagle food requirements declined only slightly (<1%). However, the warming climate caused salmon carcasses to decompose more rapidly, resulting in 11% to 14% less annual carcass biomass available to eagles in the 2050s. That estimate is likely conservative, as it does not account for decreased availability of carcasses due to anticipated increases in winter stream flow. Future climate-driven declines in winter food availability, coupled with a growing bald eagle population, may force eagles to seek alternate prey in the Puget Sound area or in more remote ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid22816320, year = {2012}, author = {Shaw, RG and Etterson, JR}, title = {Rapid climate change and the rate of adaptation: insight from experimental quantitative genetics.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {195}, number = {4}, pages = {752-765}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04230.x}, pmid = {22816320}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Fitness ; Genetic Variation ; Plants/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Evolution proceeds unceasingly in all biological populations. It is clear that climate-driven evolution has molded plants in deep time and within extant populations. However, it is less certain whether adaptive evolution can proceed sufficiently rapidly to maintain the fitness and demographic stability of populations subjected to exceptionally rapid contemporary climate change. Here, we consider this question, drawing on current evidence on the rate of plant range shifts and the potential for an adaptive evolutionary response. We emphasize advances in understanding based on theoretical studies that model interacting evolutionary processes, and we provide an overview of quantitative genetic approaches that can parameterize these models to provide more meaningful predictions of the dynamic interplay between genetics, demography and evolution. We outline further research that can clarify both the adaptive potential of plant populations as climate continues to change and the role played by ongoing adaptation in their persistence.}, }
@article {pmid22815805, year = {2012}, author = {Wappler, T and Labandeira, CC and Rust, J and Frankenhäuser, H and Wilde, V}, title = {Testing for the effects and consequences of mid paleogene climate change on insect herbivory.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {e40744}, pmid = {22815805}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cluster Analysis ; Geologic Sediments ; Germany ; Herbivory/*physiology ; Insecta/*physiology ; Lakes ; Magnoliopsida/anatomy &amp; histology/physiology ; Plant Leaves/anatomy &amp; histology/physiology ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Eocene, a time of fluctuating environmental change and biome evolution, was generally driven by exceptionally warm temperatures. The Messel (47.8 Ma) and Eckfeld (44.3 Ma) deposits offer a rare opportunity to take a census of two, deep-time ecosystems occurring during a greenhouse system. An understanding of the long-term consequences of extreme warming and cooling events during this interval, particularly on angiosperms and insects that dominate terrestrial biodiversity, can provide insights into the biotic consequences of current global climatic warming.<br><br>We compare insect-feeding damage within two middle Eocene fossil floras, Messel and Eckfeld, in Germany. From these small lake deposits, we studied 16,082 angiosperm leaves and scored each specimen for the presence or absence of 89 distinctive and diagnosable insect damage types (DTs), each of which was allocated to a major functional feeding group, including four varieties of external foliage feeding, piercing- and-sucking, leaf mining, galling, seed predation, and oviposition. Methods used for treatment of presence-absence data included general linear models and standard univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show an unexpectedly high diversity and level of insect feeding than comparable, penecontemporaneous floras from North and South America. In addition, we found a higher level of herbivory on evergreen, rather than deciduous taxa at Messel. This pattern is explained by a ca. 2.5-fold increase in atmospheric CO(2) that overwhelmed evergreen antiherbivore defenses, subsequently lessened during the more ameliorated levels of Eckfeld times. These patterns reveal important, previously undocumented features of plant-host and insect-herbivore diversification during the European mid Eocene.}, }
@article {pmid22815763, year = {2012}, author = {de Sassi, C and Tylianakis, JM}, title = {Climate change disproportionately increases herbivore over plant or parasitoid biomass.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {e40557}, pmid = {22815763}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; *Biomass ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environment, Controlled ; *Herbivory/drug effects ; Nitrogen/pharmacology ; *Parasites/drug effects ; *Plants/drug effects ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {All living organisms are linked through trophic relationships with resources and consumers, the balance of which determines overall ecosystem stability and functioning. Ecological research has identified a multitude of mechanisms that contribute to this balance, but ecologists are now challenged with predicting responses to global environmental changes. Despite a wealth of studies highlighting likely outcomes for specific mechanisms and subsets of a system (e.g., plants, plant-herbivore or predator-prey interactions), studies comparing overall effects of changes at multiple trophic levels are rare. We used a combination of experiments in a grassland system to test how biomass at the plant, herbivore and natural enemy (parasitoid) levels responds to the interactive effects of two key global change drivers: warming and nitrogen deposition. We found that higher temperatures and elevated nitrogen generated a multitrophic community that was increasingly dominated by herbivores. Moreover, we found synergistic effects of the drivers on biomass, which differed across trophic levels. Both absolute and relative biomass of herbivores increased disproportionately to that of plants and, in particular, parasitoids, which did not show any significant response to the treatments. Reduced parasitism rates mirrored the profound biomass changes in the system. These findings carry important implications for the response of biota to environmental changes; reduced top-down regulation is likely to coincide with an increase in herbivory, which in turn is likely to cascade to other fundamental ecosystem processes. Our findings also provide multitrophic data to support the general concern of increasing herbivore pest outbreaks in a warmer world.}, }
@article {pmid22810656, year = {2012}, author = {Moritz, MA}, title = {Wildfires ignite debate on global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {487}, number = {7407}, pages = {273}, doi = {10.1038/487273a}, pmid = {22810656}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Fires ; *Global Warming ; *Public Opinion ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid22809744, year = {2012}, author = {Deino, AL}, title = {(40)Ar/(39)Ar dating of Bed I, Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania, and the chronology of early Pleistocene climate change.}, journal = {Journal of human evolution}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {251-273}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhevol.2012.05.004}, pmid = {22809744}, issn = {1095-8606}, mesh = {Animals ; Argon ; Chronology as Topic ; *Climate Change ; Fossils ; Geologic Sediments ; *Geological Phenomena ; Hominidae ; Humans ; Isotopes ; Paleontology ; Radioisotopes ; *Radiometric Dating ; Tanzania ; Volcanic Eruptions ; }, abstract = {(40)Ar/(39)Ar dating of tuffs and lavas of the late Pleistocene volcanic and sedimentary sequence of Olduvai Gorge, north-central Tanzania, provides the basis for a revision of Bed I chronostratigraphy. Bed I extends from immediately above the Naabi Ignimbrite at 2.038 ± 0.005 Ma to Tuff IF at 1.803 ± 0.002 Ma. Tuff IB, a prominent widespread marker tuff in the basin and a key to understanding hominin evolutionary chronologies and paleoclimate histories, has an age of 1.848 ± 0.003 Ma. The largest lake expansion event in the closed Olduvai lake basin during Bed I times encompassed the episode of eruption and emplacement of this tuff. This lake event is nearly coincident with the maximum precessional insolation peak of the entire Bed I/Lower Bed II interval, calculated from an astronomical model of the boreal summer orbital insolation time-series. The succeeding precessional peak also apparently coincides with the next youngest expansion of paleo-Lake Olduvai. The extreme wet/dry climate shifts seen in the upper part of Bed I occur during an Earth-orbital eccentricity maximum, similar to episodic lake expansions documented elsewhere in the East African Rift during the Neogene.}, }
@article {pmid22809195, year = {2013}, author = {Bernhardt, JR and Leslie, HM}, title = {Resilience to climate change in coastal marine ecosystems.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {371-392}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-121211-172411}, pmid = {22809195}, issn = {1941-1405}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; *Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Ecological resilience to climate change is a combination of resistance to increasingly frequent and severe disturbances, capacity for recovery and self-organization, and ability to adapt to new conditions. Here, we focus on three broad categories of ecological properties that underlie resilience: diversity, connectivity, and adaptive capacity. Diversity increases the variety of responses to disturbance and the likelihood that species can compensate for one another. Connectivity among species, populations, and ecosystems enhances capacity for recovery by providing sources of propagules, nutrients, and biological legacies. Adaptive capacity includes a combination of phenotypic plasticity, species range shifts, and microevolution. We discuss empirical evidence for how these ecological and evolutionary mechanisms contribute to the resilience of coastal marine ecosystems following climate change-related disturbances, and how resource managers can apply this information to sustain these systems and the ecosystem services they provide.}, }
@article {pmid22805768, year = {2012}, author = {Semenza, JC and Caplan, JS and Buescher, G and Das, T and Brinks, MV and Gershunov, A}, title = {Climate change and microbiological water quality at California beaches.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {293-297}, pmid = {22805768}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {*Bathing Beaches ; California ; *Climate Change ; Enterococcus/isolation &amp; purification ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Recreation ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Quality/*standards ; }, abstract = {Daily microbiological water quality and precipitation data spanning 6 years were collected from monitoring stations at southern California beaches. Daily precipitation projected for the twenty-first century was derived from downscaled CNRM CM3 global climate model. A time series model of Enterococcus concentrations that was driven by precipitation, matched the general trend of empirical water quality data; there was a positive association between precipitation and microbiological water contamination (P < 0.001). Future projections of precipitation result in a decrease in predicted Enterococcus levels through the majority of the twenty-first century. Nevertheless, variability of storminess due to climate change calls for innovative adaptation and surveillance strategies.}, }
@article {pmid22802959, year = {2012}, author = {Stawski, C and Geiser, F}, title = {Will temperature effects or phenotypic plasticity determine the thermal response of a heterothermic tropical bat to climate change?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {e40278}, pmid = {22802959}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation/physiology ; Chiroptera/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Energy Metabolism/physiology ; Female ; Hibernation/physiology ; Male ; Phenotype ; Seasons ; Skin Temperature/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The proportion of organisms exposed to warm conditions is predicted to increase during global warming. To better understand how bats might respond to climate change, we aimed to obtain the first data on how use of torpor, a crucial survival strategy of small bats, is affected by temperature in the tropics. Over two mild winters, tropical free-ranging bats (Nyctophilus bifax, 10 g, n = 13) used torpor on 95% of study days and were torpid for 33.5±18.8% of 113 days measured. Torpor duration was temperature-dependent and an increase in ambient temperature by the predicted 2°C for the 21(st) century would decrease the time in torpor to 21.8%. However, comparisons among Nyctophilus populations show that regional phenotypic plasticity attenuates temperature effects on torpor patterns. Our data suggest that heterothermy is important for energy budgeting of bats even under warm conditions and that flexible torpor use will enhance bats' chance of survival during climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22796531, year = {2012}, author = {Post, ES and Grambsch, A and Weaver, C and Morefield, P and Huang, J and Leung, LY and Nolte, CG and Adams, P and Liang, XZ and Zhu, JH and Mahoney, H}, title = {Variation in estimated ozone-related health impacts of climate change due to modeling choices and assumptions.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {11}, pages = {1559-1564}, pmid = {22796531}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis/*toxicity ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure ; Environmental Health ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Ozone/analysis/*toxicity ; Public Health ; Risk Factors ; United States ; United States Environmental Protection Agency ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices.<br><br>METHODS: Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration-response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O(3))-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration-response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA's 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O(3).<br><br>RESULTS: Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O(3)-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O(3)-related human health effects resulting from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22795259, year = {2012}, author = {Candela, L and Tamoh, K and Olivares, G and Gomez, M}, title = {Modelling impacts of climate change on water resources in ungauged and data-scarce watersheds. Application to the Siurana catchment (NE Spain).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {440}, number = {}, pages = {253-260}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.06.062}, pmid = {22795259}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Gaining knowledge on potential climate change impacts on water resources is a complex process which depends on numerical models capable of describing these processes in quantitative terms. Under limited data or ungauged basin conditions, which constrain the modelling approach, a physically based coherent methodological approach is required. The traditional approach to assess flow regime and groundwater recharge impacts, based on coupling general atmosphere-ocean circulation models (GCM) and hydrologic models, has been investigated in the Siurana ungauged catchment (NE Spain). The future A2 (medium-high) and B1 (medium-low) greenhouse gas scenarios and time slices 2013-2037 (2025) and 2038-2062 (2050), developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001), have been selected. For scenario simulations, coupled GCM ECHAM5 scenarios, stochastically downscaled outputs and surface-subsurface modelling to simulate changes in water resources were applied to the catchment. Flow regime analysis was assessed by HEC-HMS, a physically based hydrologic model to assess rainfall-runoff in a catchment, while recharge was estimated with VisualBALAN, a distributed model for natural recharge estimation. Simulations show that the projected climate change at the catchment will affect the entire hydrological system with a maximum of 56% reduction of water resources. While subtle changes are observed for the 2025 time slice, the temperature and precipitation forecast for 2050 shows a maximum increase of 2.2 °C and a decreased precipitation volume of 11.3% in relation to historical values. Regarding historical values, runoff output shows a maximum 20% decrease, and 18% decrease of natural recharge with a certain delay in relation to runoff and rainfall data. According to the results, the most important parameters conditioning future water resources are changes in climatic parameters, but they are highly dependent on soil moisture conditions.}, }
@article {pmid22791706, year = {2012}, author = {Richardson, AJ and Brown, CJ and Brander, K and Bruno, JF and Buckley, L and Burrows, MT and Duarte, CM and Halpern, BS and Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Holding, J and Kappel, CV and Kiessling, W and Moore, PJ and O'Connor, MI and Pandolfi, JM and Parmesan, C and Schoeman, DS and Schwing, F and Sydeman, WJ and Poloczanska, ES}, title = {Climate change and marine life.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {907-909}, pmid = {22791706}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Data Collection ; Data Interpretation, Statistical ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Marine Biology/*methods/*trends ; Oceanography/methods ; Oceans and Seas ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22791186, year = {2013}, author = {Lehikoinen, A and Lindén, A and Byholm, P and Ranta, E and Saurola, P and Valkama, J and Kaitala, V and Lindén, H}, title = {Impact of climate change and prey abundance on nesting success of a top predator, the goshawk.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {171}, number = {1}, pages = {283-293}, pmid = {22791186}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Falconiformes ; Finland ; *Food Chain ; Galliformes ; Population Density ; Reproduction ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Contemporary research has documented a large number of shifts in spring phenology and changes in distribution range although the average spring temperatures have increased by only 0.3-0.6 °C over the past 100 years. Generally, earlier breeding birds have larger clutch sizes, and the advancing spring could thus potentially increase breeding success. Shifts in spring phenology can, however, be crucial for bird reproduction, and mistiming the breeding event may even have negative consequences for population development. Our aim was to explore how weather and prey abundance relates to the breeding performance of a north European top predator, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Our nationwide dataset from Finland, spanning the period 1989-2004, shows that ambient weather has a greater impact on the timing and success of breeding than the density of grouse Tetraonidae, the main prey of goshawks. Higher early spring temperatures were associated with advancing hatching date of goshawks. Correspondingly, grouse density and temperature during laying and brooding were positively associated with brood size, while precipitation showed a negative connection. Applying our models to a future scenario of climate warming, combined with a 50 % reduction in grouse density, suggests that average breeding dates will advance only 2.5 days and average breeding success would remain the same. Notably, breeding success was not spatially equal throughout Finland, as northern and eastern populations suffered most from declining grouse densities. The observed pattern is thus the opposite to what is expected from a population situated at the northern edge of its distribution range, and thus may help to understand why populations may not increase at the northern edge of their thermal distribution due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22789298, year = {2012}, author = {McMahon, C and Gordon, AW and Edgar, HW and Hanna, RE and Brennan, GP and Fairweather, I}, title = {The effects of climate change on ovine parasitic gastroenteritis determined using veterinary surveillance and meteorological data for Northern Ireland over the period 1999-2009.}, journal = {Veterinary parasitology}, volume = {190}, number = {1-2}, pages = {167-177}, doi = {10.1016/j.vetpar.2012.06.016}, pmid = {22789298}, issn = {1873-2550}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Drug Resistance ; Female ; Gastroenteritis/diagnosis/epidemiology/parasitology/*veterinary ; Geography ; Nematodirus/*isolation &amp; purification ; Northern Ireland/epidemiology ; Parasite Egg Count/veterinary ; Rain ; Seasons ; Sheep ; Sheep Diseases/diagnosis/*epidemiology/parasitology ; Strongylida Infections/diagnosis/epidemiology/parasitology/*veterinary ; Strongyloides/*isolation &amp; purification ; Strongyloidiasis/diagnosis/epidemiology/parasitology/veterinary ; Temperature ; Trichostrongyloidea/*isolation &amp; purification ; Trichostrongylosis/diagnosis/epidemiology/parasitology/veterinary ; }, abstract = {While the influence of temperature and moisture on the free-living stages of gastrointestinal nematodes have been described in detail, and evidence for global climate change is mounting, there have been only a few attempts to relate altered incidence or seasonal patterns of disease to climate change. Studies of this type have been completed for England Scotland and Wales, but not for Northern Ireland (NI). Here we present an analysis of veterinary diagnostic data that relates three categories of gastrointestinal nematode infection in sheep to historical meteorological data for NI. The infections are: trichostrongylosis/teladorsagiosis (Teladorsagia/Trichostrongylus), strongyloidosis and nematodirosis. This study aims to provide a baseline for future climate change analyses and to provide basic information for the development of nematode control programmes. After identifying and evaluating possible sources of bias, climate change was found to be the most likely explanation for the observed patterns of change in parasite epidemiology, although other hypotheses could not be refuted. Seasonal rates of diagnosis showed a uniform year-round distribution for Teladorsagia and Trichostrongylus infections, suggesting consistent levels of larval survival throughout the year and extension of the traditionally expected seasonal transmission windows. Nematodirosis showed a higher level of autumn than Spring infection, suggesting that suitable conditions for egg and larval development occurred after the Spring infection period. Differences between regions within the Province were shown for strongyloidosis, with peaks of infection falling in the period September-November. For all three-infection categories (trichostrongylosis/teladorsagiosis, strongyloidosis and nematodirosis), significant differences in the rates of diagnosis, and in the seasonality of disease, were identified between regions.}, }
@article {pmid22787021, year = {2012}, author = {Anderson, JT and Inouye, DW and McKinney, AM and Colautti, RI and Mitchell-Olds, T}, title = {Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {279}, number = {1743}, pages = {3843-3852}, pmid = {22787021}, issn = {1471-2954}, support = {R01 GM086496/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Biological Evolution ; Brassicaceae/genetics/*physiology ; Colorado ; Crosses, Genetic ; Flowers/genetics/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Inbreeding ; *Phenotype ; Recombination, Genetic ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; *Selection, Genetic ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change has already altered the timing of major life-history transitions, such as the initiation of reproduction. Both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution can underlie rapid phenological shifts in response to climate change, but their relative contributions are poorly understood. Here, we combine a continuous 38 year field survey with quantitative genetic field experiments to assess adaptation in the context of climate change. We focused on Boechera stricta (Brassicaeae), a mustard native to the US Rocky Mountains. Flowering phenology advanced significantly from 1973 to 2011, and was strongly associated with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt dates. Strong directional selection favoured earlier flowering in contemporary environments (2010-2011). Climate change could drive this directional selection, and promote even earlier flowering as temperatures continue to increase. Our quantitative genetic analyses predict a response to selection of 0.2 to 0.5 days acceleration in flowering per generation, which could account for more than 20 per cent of the phenological change observed in the long-term dataset. However, the strength of directional selection and the predicted evolutionary response are likely much greater now than even 30 years ago because of rapidly changing climatic conditions. We predict that adaptation will likely be necessary for long-term in situ persistence in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22786931, year = {2012}, author = {Bevis, M and Wahr, J and Khan, SA and Madsen, FB and Brown, A and Willis, M and Kendrick, E and Knudsen, P and Box, JE and van Dam, T and Caccamise, DJ and Johns, B and Nylen, T and Abbott, R and White, S and Miner, J and Forsberg, R and Zhou, H and Wang, J and Wilson, T and Bromwich, D and Francis, O}, title = {Bedrock displacements in Greenland manifest ice mass variations, climate cycles and climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {30}, pages = {11944-11948}, pmid = {22786931}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; Elasticity ; Geographic Information Systems ; *Geological Phenomena ; Greenland ; *Ice Cover ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The Greenland GPS Network (GNET) uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to measure the displacement of bedrock exposed near the margins of the Greenland ice sheet. The entire network is uplifting in response to past and present-day changes in ice mass. Crustal displacement is largely accounted for by an annual oscillation superimposed on a sustained trend. The oscillation is driven by earth's elastic response to seasonal variations in ice mass and air mass (i.e., atmospheric pressure). Observed vertical velocities are higher and often much higher than predicted rates of postglacial rebound (PGR), implying that uplift is usually dominated by the solid earth's instantaneous elastic response to contemporary losses in ice mass rather than PGR. Superimposed on longer-term trends, an anomalous 'pulse' of uplift accumulated at many GNET stations during an approximate six-month period in 2010. This anomalous uplift is spatially correlated with the 2010 melting day anomaly.}, }
@article {pmid22759504, year = {2012}, author = {Forsberg, B and Bråbäck, L and Keune, H and Kobernus, M and Krayer von Krauss, M and Yang, A and Bartonova, A}, title = {An expert assessment on climate change and health - with a European focus on lungs and allergies.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {11 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S4}, pmid = {22759504}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/toxicity ; Allergens/toxicity ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Europe ; Expert Testimony ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*etiology ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*etiology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: For almost 20 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been assessing the potential health risks associated with climate change; with increasingly convincing evidence that climate change presents existing impacts on human health. In industrialized countries climate change may further affect public health and in particular respiratory health, through existing health stressors, including, anticipated increased number of deaths and acute morbidity due to heat waves; increased frequency of cardiopulmonary events due to higher concentrations of air pollutants; and altered spatial and temporal distribution of allergens and some infectious disease vectors. Additionally exposure to moulds and contaminants from water damaged buildings may increase.<br><br>METHODS: We undertook an expert elicitation amongst European researchers engaged in environmental medicine or respiratory health. All experts were actively publishing researchers on lung disease and air pollution, climate and health or a closely related research. We conducted an online questionnaire on proposed causal diagrams and determined levels of confidence that climate change will have an impact on a series of stressors. In a workshop following the online questionnaire, half of the experts further discussed the results and reasons for differences in assessments of the state of knowledge on exposures and health effects.<br><br>RESULTS: Out of 16 experts, 100% expressed high to very high confidence that climate change would increase the frequency of heat waves. At least half expressed high or very high confidence that climate change would increase levels of pollen (50%), particulate matter (PM2.5) (55%), and ozone (70%). While clarity is needed around the impacts of increased exposures to health impacts of some stressors, including ozone and particulate matter levels, it was noted that definitive knowledge is not a prerequisite for policy action. Information to the public, preventive measures, monitoring and warning systems were among the most commonly mentioned preventative actions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This group of experts identifies clear health risks associated with climate change, and express opinions about these risks even while they do not necessarily regard themselves as covering all areas of expertise. Since some changes in exposure have already been observed, the consensus is that there is already a scientific basis for preventative action, and that the associated adaptation and mitigation policies should also be evidence based.}, }
@article {pmid22759496, year = {2012}, author = {Keune, H and Ludlow, D and van den Hazel, P and Randall, S and Bartonova, A}, title = {A healthy turn in urban climate change policies; European city workshop proposes health indicators as policy integrators.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {11 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S14}, pmid = {22759496}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Europe ; European Union ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Policy Making ; Public Health ; *Urban Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The EU FP6 HENVINET project reviewed the potential relevance of a focus on climate change related health effects for climate change policies at the city region level. This was undertaken by means of a workshop with both scientists, city representatives from several EU-countries, representatives of EU city networks and EU-experts. In this paper we introduce some important health related climate change issues, and discuss the current city policies of the participating cities.<br><br>METHODS: The workshop used a backcasting format to analyse the future relevance of a health perspective, and the main benefits and challenges this would bring to urban policy making.<br><br>RESULTS: It was concluded that health issues have an important function as indicators of success for urban climate change policies, given the extent to which climate change policies contribute to public health and as such to quality of life. Simultaneously the health perspective may function as a policy integrator in that it can combine several related policy objectives, such as environmental policies, health policies, urban planning and economic development policies, in one framework for action. Furthermore, the participants to the workshop considered public health to be of strategic importance in organizing public support for climate change policies. One important conclusion of the workshop was the view that the connection of science and policy at the city level is inadequate, and that the integration of scientific knowledge on climate change related health effects and local policy practice is in need of more attention. In conclusion, the workshop was viewed as a constructive advance in the process of integration which hopefully will lead to ongoing cooperation.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The workshop had the ambition to bring together a diversity of actor perspectives for exchange of knowledge and experiences, and joint understanding as a basis for future cooperation. Next to the complementarities in experience and knowledge, the mutual critical reflection was a bonus, as ideas had the opportunity to be scrutinized by others, leading to more robustness and common ground. The structured backcasting approach was helpful in integrating all of this with one common focus, embracing diversity and complexity, and stimulating reflection and new ideas.}, }
@article {pmid22783021, year = {2012}, author = {Auffhammer, M and Vincent, JR}, title = {Unobserved time effects confound the identification of climate change impacts.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {30}, pages = {11973-11974}, pmid = {22783021}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Causality ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Emigration and Immigration/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; }, abstract = {A recent study by Feng et al. [Feng S, Krueger A, Oppenheimer M (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:14257-14262] in PNAS reported statistical evidence of a weather-driven causal effect of crop yields on human migration from Mexico to the United States. We show that this conclusion is based on a different statistical model than the one stated in the paper. When we correct for this mistake, there is no evidence of a causal link.}, }
@article {pmid22782862, year = {2012}, author = {Merilä, J}, title = {Evolution in response to climate change: in pursuit of the missing evidence.}, journal = {BioEssays : news and reviews in molecular, cellular and developmental biology}, volume = {34}, number = {9}, pages = {811-818}, doi = {10.1002/bies.201200054}, pmid = {22782862}, issn = {1521-1878}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Fitness ; Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Phenotype ; *Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Climate change is imposing intensified and novel selection pressures on organisms by altering abiotic and biotic environmental conditions on Earth, but studies demonstrating genetic adaptation to climate change mediated selection are still scarce. Evidence is accumulating to indicate that both genetic and ecological constrains may often limit populations' abilities to adapt to large scale effects of climate warming. These constraints may predispose many organisms to respond to climate change with range shifts and phenotypic plasticity, rather than through evolutionary adaptation. In general, broad conclusions about the role of evolutionary adaptation in mitigating climate change induced fitness loss in the wild are as yet difficult to make.}, }
@article {pmid22773068, year = {2012}, author = {Cross, MS and Zavaleta, ES and Bachelet, D and Brooks, ML and Enquist, CA and Fleishman, E and Graumlich, LJ and Groves, CR and Hannah, L and Hansen, L and Hayward, G and Koopman, M and Lawler, JJ and Malcolm, J and Nordgren, J and Petersen, B and Rowland, EL and Scott, D and Shafer, SL and Shaw, MR and Tabor, GM}, title = {The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework: a tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {50}, number = {3}, pages = {341-351}, pmid = {22773068}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Goals ; Rivers ; United States ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {As natural resource management agencies and conservation organizations seek guidance on responding to climate change, myriad potential actions and strategies have been proposed for increasing the long-term viability of some attributes of natural systems. Managers need practical tools for selecting among these actions and strategies to develop a tailored management approach for specific targets at a given location. We developed and present one such tool, the participatory Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework, which considers the effects of climate change in the development of management actions for particular species, ecosystems and ecological functions. Our framework is based on the premise that effective adaptation of management to climate change can rely on local knowledge of an ecosystem and does not necessarily require detailed projections of climate change or its effects. We illustrate the ACT framework by applying it to an ecological function in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho, USA)--water flows in the upper Yellowstone River. We suggest that the ACT framework is a practical tool for initiating adaptation planning, and for generating and communicating specific management interventions given an increasingly altered, yet uncertain, climate.}, }
@article {pmid22770738, year = {2012}, author = {Pascal, M and Viso, AC and Medina, S and Delmas, MC and Beaudeau, P}, title = {How can a climate change perspective be integrated into public health surveillance?.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {126}, number = {8}, pages = {660-667}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2012.04.013}, pmid = {22770738}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; Environmental Health ; Health Behavior ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Population Surveillance/*methods ; *Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Efficient health surveillance systems are required to support adaptation to climate change. However, despite a growing awareness, the public health surveillance sector has had very little involvement in the drafting of adaptation plans. This paper proposes a method to raise awareness about climate change in the public health community, to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for reinforced health surveillance systems.<br><br>METHODS: A working group was set up comprising surveillance experts in the following fields: environmental health; chronic diseases and; infectious diseases. Their goal was to define common objectives, to propose a framework for risk analysis, and to apply it to relevant health risks in France.<br><br>RESULTS: The framework created helped to organize available information on climate-sensitive health risks, making a distinction between three main determinants as follows: (1) environment; (2) individual and social behaviours; and (3) demography and health status. The process is illustrated using two examples: heatwaves and airborne allergens.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Health surveillance systems can be used to trigger early warning systems, to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and to evaluate these measures. Adaptation requires public health professionals to consider climate change as a concrete input parameter in their studies and to create partnerships with professionals from other disciplines.}, }
@article {pmid22766781, year = {2012}, author = {Murray, V and Ebi, KL}, title = {IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX).}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and community health}, volume = {66}, number = {9}, pages = {759-760}, doi = {10.1136/jech-2012-201045}, pmid = {22766781}, issn = {1470-2738}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Anthropology, Cultural ; *Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/economics/methods/standards ; *Disasters ; Environmental Exposure/prevention &amp; control ; Global Health ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Organizational Objectives ; Peer Review, Research ; *Research Report ; *Risk Assessment ; }, }
@article {pmid22764114, year = {2012}, author = {Guerin, GR and Wen, H and Lowe, AJ}, title = {Leaf morphology shift linked to climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {882-886}, pmid = {22764114}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Geography ; Plant Leaves/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Rain ; South Australia ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is driving adaptive shifts within species, but research on plants has been focused on phenology. Leaf morphology has demonstrated links with climate and varies within species along climate gradients. We predicted that, given within-species variation along a climate gradient, a morphological shift should have occurred over time due to climate change. We tested this prediction, taking advantage of latitudinal and altitudinal variations within the Adelaide Geosyncline region, South Australia, historical herbarium specimens (n = 255) and field sampling (n = 274). Leaf width in the study taxon, Dodonaea viscosa subsp. angustissima, was negatively correlated with latitude regionally, and leaf area was negatively correlated with altitude locally. Analysis of herbarium specimens revealed a 2 mm decrease in leaf width (total range 1-9 mm) over 127 years across the region. The results are consistent with a morphological response to contemporary climate change. We conclude that leaf width is linked to maximum temperature regionally (latitude gradient) and leaf area to minimum temperature locally (altitude gradient). These data indicate a morphological shift consistent with a direct response to climate change and could inform provenance selection for restoration with further investigation of the genetic basis and adaptive significance of observed variation.}, }
@article {pmid22763352, year = {2012}, author = {Ledig, FT and Rehfeldt, GE and Jaquish, B}, title = {Projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: Implications for trans-boundary assisted colonization.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {99}, number = {7}, pages = {1217-1230}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1200059}, pmid = {22763352}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {British Columbia ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pacific States ; *Picea ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climate change may threaten endemic species with extinction, particularly relicts of the Arcto-Tertiary Forest, by elimination of their contemporary habitat. Projections of future habitat are necessary to plan for conservation of these species.<br><br>METHODS: We used spline climatic models and modified Random Forests statistical procedures to predict suitable habitats for Brewer spruce (Picea breweriana), which is endemic to the Klamath Region of California and Oregon. We used three general circulation models and two sets of carbon emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for future climates.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Our procedures predicted present occurrence of Brewer spruce perfectly. For the decades 2030, 2060, and 2090, its projected range within the Klamath Region progressively declined, to the point of disappearance in the decade 2090. The climate niche was projected to move north to British Columbia, the Yukon Territory, and southeastern Alaska.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results emphasize the necessity of assisted colonization and trans-boundary movement to prevent extinction of Brewer spruce. The projections provide a framework for formulating conservation plans, but planners must also consider regulations regarding international plant transfers.}, }
@article {pmid22754455, year = {2012}, author = {Grasso, M and Manera, M and Chiabai, A and Markandya, A}, title = {The health effects of climate change: a survey of recent quantitative research.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {1523-1547}, pmid = {22754455}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Research ; }, abstract = {In recent years there has been a large scientific and public debate on climate change and its direct as well as indirect effects on human health. In particular, a large amount of research on the effects of climate changes on human health has addressed two fundamental questions. First, can historical data be of some help in revealing how short-run or long-run climate variations affect the occurrence of infectious diseases? Second, is it possible to build more accurate quantitative models which are capable of predicting the future effects of different climate conditions on the transmissibility of particularly dangerous infectious diseases? The primary goal of this paper is to review the most relevant contributions which have directly tackled those questions, both with respect to the effects of climate changes on the diffusion of non-infectious and infectious diseases, with malaria as a case study. Specific attention will be drawn on the methodological aspects of each study, which will be classified according to the type of quantitative model considered, namely time series models, panel data and spatial models, and non-statistical approaches. Since many different disciplines and approaches are involved, a broader view is necessary in order to provide a better understanding of the interactions between climate and health. In this respect, our paper also presents a critical summary of the recent literature related to more general aspects of the impacts of climate changes on human health, such as: the economics of climate change; how to manage the health effects of climate change; the establishment of Early Warning Systems for infectious diseases.}, }
@article {pmid22748349, year = {2012}, author = {Polettini, A}, title = {Waste and climate change: can appropriate management strategies contribute to mitigation?.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {32}, number = {8}, pages = {1501-1502}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2012.04.017}, pmid = {22748349}, issn = {1879-2456}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; *Waste Management ; }, }
@article {pmid22743679, year = {2013}, author = {Orru, H and Andersson, C and Ebi, KL and Langner, J and Aström, C and Forsberg, B}, title = {Impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality and morbidity in Europe.}, journal = {The European respiratory journal}, volume = {41}, number = {2}, pages = {285-294}, doi = {10.1183/09031936.00210411}, pmid = {22743679}, issn = {1399-3003}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Hospitalization ; Humans ; Lung Diseases/*epidemiology/*mortality ; Models, Theoretical ; *Ozone ; }, abstract = {Ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant formed from precursors in the presence of sunlight, associated with respiratory morbidity and mortality. All else being equal, concentrations of ground-level ozone are expected to increase due to climate change. Ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate are projected using emission scenarios, models and epidemiological data. European ozone concentrations are modelled with the model of atmospheric transport and chemistry (MATCH)-RCA3 (50×50 km). Projections from two climate models, ECHAM4 and HadCM3, are applied under greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and A1B, respectively. We applied a European-wide exposure-response function to gridded population data and country-specific baseline mortality and morbidity. Comparing the current situation (1990-2009) with the baseline period (1961-1990), the largest increase in ozone-associated mortality and morbidity due to climate change (4-5%) have occurred in Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and the UK. Comparing the baseline period and the future periods (2021-2050 and 2041-2060), much larger increases in ozone-related mortality and morbidity are projected for Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal, with the impact being stronger using the climate projection from ECHAM4 (A2). However, in Nordic and Baltic countries the same magnitude of decrease is projected. The current study suggests that projected effects of climate change on ozone concentrations could differentially influence mortality and morbidity across Europe.}, }
@article {pmid22742772, year = {2013}, author = {Staudt, C and Semiochkina, N and Kaiser, JC and Pröhl, G}, title = {Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.}, journal = {Journal of environmental radioactivity}, volume = {115}, number = {}, pages = {214-223}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvrad.2012.05.016}, pmid = {22742772}, issn = {1879-1700}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Drinking Water/analysis ; Environmental Exposure/analysis ; Fishes ; Food Contamination, Radioactive/analysis ; Germany ; Groundwater/analysis ; Humans ; Meat/analysis ; *Models, Theoretical ; Plants, Edible/chemistry ; *Radioactive Waste ; Radioisotopes/*analysis ; Refuse Disposal ; Risk Assessment ; Soil Pollutants, Radioactive/*analysis ; Water Pollutants, Radioactive/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture.}, }
@article {pmid22742589, year = {2012}, author = {van der Fels-Klerx, HJ and Olesen, JE and Madsen, MS and Goedhart, PW}, title = {Climate change increases deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat in north-western Europe.}, journal = {Food additives &amp; contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, analysis, control, exposure &amp; risk assessment}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {1593-1604}, doi = {10.1080/19440049.2012.691555}, pmid = {22742589}, issn = {1944-0057}, mesh = {Agriculture/trends ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*chemistry/growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Europe ; Flowering Tops/growth &amp; development ; *Food Contamination ; Forecasting/methods ; Fungi/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Fusarium/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; Seasons ; Seeds/chemistry/growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Trichothecenes/*analysis/biosynthesis ; Triticum/*chemistry/growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change will affect the development of cereal crops and the occurrence of mycotoxins in these crops, but so far little research has been done on quantifying the expected effects. The aim of this study was to assess climate change impacts on the occurrence of deoxynivalenol in wheat grown in north-western Europe by 2040, considering the combined effects of shifts in wheat phenology and climate. The study used climate model data for the future period of 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. A weather generator was used for generating synthetic series of daily weather data for both the baseline and the future periods. Available models for wheat phenology and prediction of deoxynivalenol concentrations in north-western Europe were used. Both models were run for winter wheat and spring wheat, separately. The results showed that both flowering and full maturation of wheat will be earlier in the season because of climate change effects, about 1 to 2 weeks. Deoxynivalenol contamination was found to increase in most of the study region, with an increase of the original concentrations by up to 3 times. The study results may inform governmental and industrial risk managers to underpin decision-making and planning processes in north-western Europe. On the local level, deoxynivalenol contamination should be closely monitored to pick out wheat batches with excess levels at the right time. Using predictive models on a more local scale could be helpful to assist other monitoring measures to safeguard food safety in the wheat supply chain.}, }
@article {pmid22730935, year = {2012}, author = {Bajayo, R}, title = {Building community resilience to climate change through public health planning.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {30-36}, doi = {10.1071/he12030}, pmid = {22730935}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; Community Health Services ; Economics ; Health Planning/methods/*organization &amp; administration ; Health Policy ; Health Priorities ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Residence Characteristics ; Social Support ; }, abstract = {ISSUE ADDRESSED: Nillumbik Shire Council, in partnership with La Trobe University, used the Municipal Public Health Planning process to develop an approach for building the resilience of local communities to climate-related stressors. The objective was to define an approach for building community resilience to climate change and to integrate this approach with the 'Environments for Health' framework.<br><br>METHODS: Key published papers and reports by leading experts the field were reviewed. Literature was selected based on its relevance to the subjects of community resilience and climate change and was derived from local and international publications, the vast majority published within the past two decades.<br><br>RESULTS: Review of literature on community resilience revealed that four principal resource sets contribute to the capacity of communities to adapt in times of stress, these being: economic development; social capital; information and communication; and community competence. On the strength of findings, a framework for building each resilience resource set within each of the Environments for Health was constructed. This paper introduces the newly constructed 'Community Resilience Framework', which describes how each one of the four resilience resource sets can be developed within social, built, natural and economic environments.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The Community Resilience Framework defines an approach for simultaneously creating supportive environments for health and increasing community capacity for adaptation to climate-related stressors. As such, it can be used by Municipal Public Health Planners as a guide in building community resilience to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22728675, year = {2012}, author = {Denis, D and Pierre, JS and van Baaren, J and van Alphen, JJ}, title = {Physiological adaptations to climate change in pro-ovigenic parasitoids.}, journal = {Journal of theoretical biology}, volume = {309}, number = {}, pages = {67-77}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.06.005}, pmid = {22728675}, issn = {1095-8541}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Basal Metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Oviposition/physiology ; Ovum/*physiology ; Parasites/metabolism/*physiology ; Regression Analysis ; Reproduction/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Temperature increase can affect physiological and behavioural constraints. Here, we use a stochastic dynamic modelling approach to predict changes in physiological adaptations and behaviour in response to temperature increase of pro-ovigenic parasitoids (i.e., parasitoids that mature all of their eggs before emergence). Adults of most species of parasitoids, are not capable of de novo lipogenesis. The allocation of lipids accumulated during the larval stage determines adult lifespan and fecundity. In females, lipids can be allocated either to egg production or to adult lipid reserves leading to a trade-off between fecundity and lifespan. Our results show that selection by an increase in ambient temperature, favours a smaller initial egg load and a larger amount of lipids for maintenance. The cost of habitat exploitation increases with temperature because the rate of lipid consumption increases. Hence, lifetime reproductive success decreases. When the optimal activity rate shifts to match the higher ambient temperature, these effects become less pronounced.}, }
@article {pmid22723781, year = {2012}, author = {Ramasamy, R and Surendran, SN}, title = {Global climate change and its potential impact on disease transmission by salinity-tolerant mosquito vectors in coastal zones.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {198}, pmid = {22723781}, issn = {1664-042X}, abstract = {Global climate change can potentially increase the transmission of mosquito vector-borne diseases such as malaria, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue in many parts of the world. These predictions are based on the effects of changing temperature, rainfall, and humidity on mosquito breeding and survival, the more rapid development of ingested pathogens in mosquitoes and the more frequent blood feeds at moderately higher ambient temperatures. An expansion of saline and brackish water bodies (water with <0.5 ppt or parts per thousand, 0.5-30 ppt and >30 ppt salt are termed fresh, brackish, and saline respectively) will also take place as a result of global warming causing a rise in sea levels in coastal zones. Its possible impact on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases has, however, not been adequately appreciated. The relevant impacts of global climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones are discussed with reference to the Ross-McDonald equation and modeling studies. Evidence is presented to show that an expansion of brackish water bodies in coastal zones can increase the densities of salinity-tolerant mosquitoes like Anopheles sundaicus and Culex sitiens, and lead to the adaptation of fresh water mosquito vectors like Anopheles culicifacies, Anopheles stephensi, Aedes aegypti, and Aedes albopictus to salinity. Rising sea levels may therefore act synergistically with global climate change to increase the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones. Greater attention therefore needs to be devoted to monitoring disease incidence and preimaginal development of vector mosquitoes in artificial and natural coastal brackish/saline habitats. It is important that national and international health agencies are aware of the increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones and develop preventive and mitigating strategies. Application of appropriate counter measures can greatly reduce the potential for increased coastal transmission of mosquito-borne diseases consequent to climate change and a rise in sea levels. It is proposed that the Jaffna peninsula in Sri Lanka may be a useful case study for the impact of rising sea levels on mosquito vectors in tropical coasts.}, }
@article {pmid22723403, year = {2012}, author = {Zarnetske, PL and Skelly, DK and Urban, MC}, title = {Ecology. Biotic multipliers of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {336}, number = {6088}, pages = {1516-1518}, doi = {10.1126/science.1222732}, pmid = {22723403}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; *Food Chain ; Models, Biological ; Plants ; Population Dynamics ; }, }
@article {pmid22722254, year = {2012}, author = {Melles, M and Brigham-Grette, J and Minyuk, PS and Nowaczyk, NR and Wennrich, V and DeConto, RM and Anderson, PM and Andreev, AA and Coletti, A and Cook, TL and Haltia-Hovi, E and Kukkonen, M and Lozhkin, AV and Rosén, P and Tarasov, P and Vogel, H and Wagner, B}, title = {2.8 million years of Arctic climate change from Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {337}, number = {6092}, pages = {315-320}, doi = {10.1126/science.1222135}, pmid = {22722254}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Climate ; Geologic Sediments ; Ice Cover ; *Lakes ; Radiometric Dating ; Russia ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The reliability of Arctic climate predictions is currently hampered by insufficient knowledge of natural climate variability in the past. A sediment core from Lake El'gygytgyn in northeastern (NE) Russia provides a continuous, high-resolution record from the Arctic, spanning the past 2.8 million years. This core reveals numerous "super interglacials" during the Quaternary; for marine benthic isotope stages (MIS) 11c and 31, maximum summer temperatures and annual precipitation values are ~4° to 5°C and ~300 millimeters higher than those of MIS 1 and 5e. Climate simulations show that these extreme warm conditions are difficult to explain with greenhouse gas and astronomical forcing alone, implying the importance of amplifying feedbacks and far field influences. The timing of Arctic warming relative to West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreats implies strong interhemispheric climate connectivity.}, }
@article {pmid22720600, year = {2012}, author = {Zhao, ZJ and Tan, LY and Kang, DW and Liu, QJ and Li, JQ}, title = {[Responses of Picea likiangensis radial growth to climate change in the Small Zhongdian area of Yunnan Province, Southwest China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {603-609}, pmid = {22720600}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Picea/*growth &amp; development ; Plant Stems/anatomy &amp; histology/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Picea likiangensis (Franch.) Pritz. primary forest is one of the dominant forest types in the Small Zhongdian area in Shangri-La County of Yunnan Province. In this paper, the responses of P. likiangensis tree-ring width to climate change were analyzed by dendrochronological methods, and the dendrochronology was built by using relatively conservative detrending negative exponential curves or linear regression. Correlation analysis and response function analysis were applied to explore the relationships between the residual chronology series (RES) and climatic factors at different time scales, and pointer year analysis was used to explain the reasons of producing narrow and wide rings. In the study area, the radial growth of P. likiangensis and the increasing air temperature from 1990 to 2008 had definite 'abruption'. The temperature and precipitation in previous year growth season were the main factors limiting the present year radial growth, and especially, the temperature in previous July played a negative feedback role in the radial growth, while the sufficient precipitation in previous July promoted the radial growth. The differences in the temperature variation and precipitation variation in previous year were the main reasons for the formation of narrow and wide rings. P. likiangensis radial growth was not sensitive to the variation of PDSI.}, }
@article {pmid22720034, year = {2012}, author = {Henry, P and Sim, Z and Russello, MA}, title = {Genetic evidence for restricted dispersal along continuous altitudinal gradients in a climate change-sensitive mammal: the American Pika.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {6}, pages = {e39077}, pmid = {22720034}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Gene Flow ; Genetic Variation ; Lagomorpha/genetics/*physiology ; Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Quality Control ; }, abstract = {When faced with rapidly changing environments, wildlife species are left to adapt, disperse or disappear. Consequently, there is value in investigating the connectivity of populations of species inhabiting different environments in order to evaluate dispersal as a potential strategy for persistence in the face of climate change. Here, we begin to investigate the processes that shape genetic variation within American pika populations from the northern periphery of their range, the central Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. At these latitudes, pikas inhabit sharp elevation gradients ranging from sea level to 1500 m, providing an excellent system for studying the effects of local environmental conditions on pika population genetic structure and gene flow. We found low levels of neutral genetic variation compared to previous studies from more southerly latitudes, consistent with the relatively recent post-glacial colonization of the study location. Moreover, significant levels of inbreeding and marked genetic structure were detected within and among sites. Although low levels of recent gene flow were revealed among elevations within a transect, potentially admixed individuals and first generation migrants were identified using discriminant analysis of principal components between populations separated by less than five kilometers at the same elevations. There was no evidence for historical population decline, yet there was signal for recent demographic contractions, possibly resulting from environmental stochasticity. Correlative analyses revealed an association between patterns of genetic variation and annual heat-to-moisture ratio, mean annual precipitation, precipitation as snow and mean maximum summer temperature. Changes in climatic regimes forecasted for the region may thus potentially increase the rate of population extirpation by further reducing dispersal between sites. Consequently, American pika may have to rely on local adaptations or phenotypic plasticity in order to survive predicted climate changes, although additional studies are required to investigate the evolutionary potential of this climate change sensitive species.}, }
@article {pmid22712716, year = {2012}, author = {Paterson, JA and Ford, JD and Ford, LB and Lesnikowski, A and Berry, P and Henderson, J and Heymann, J}, title = {Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {452}, pmid = {22712716}, issn = {1471-2458}, support = {//Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canada ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Geography, Medical ; Humans ; *Local Government ; Ontario ; *Public Health ; Qualitative Research ; Risk Management/*organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario - Canada's most populous province - include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials.<br><br>METHODS: Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention.<br><br>RESULTS: Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%), severe weather (68%) and poor air-quality (57%). Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into policies and programs, while higher levels of government must improve efforts to support local adaptation and provide the capacity through which local adaptation can succeed.}, }
@article {pmid22708693, year = {2012}, author = {Pidgeon, N}, title = {Climate change risk perception and communication: addressing a critical moment?.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {951-956}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01856.x}, pmid = {22708693}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; Decision Making ; Emotions ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Perception ; Public Policy ; *Risk ; Risk Assessment ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an increasingly salient issue for societies and policy-makers worldwide. It now raises fundamental interdisciplinary issues of risk and uncertainty analysis and communication. The growing scientific consensus over the anthropogenic causes of climate change appears to sit at odds with the increasing use of risk discourses in policy: for example, to aid in climate adaptation decision making. All of this points to a need for a fundamental revision of our conceptualization of what it is to do climate risk communication. This Special Collection comprises seven papers stimulated by a workshop on "Climate Risk Perceptions and Communication" held at Cumberland Lodge Windsor in 2010. Topics addressed include climate uncertainties, images and the media, communication and public engagement, uncertainty transfer in climate communication, the role of emotions, localization of hazard impacts, and longitudinal analyses of climate perceptions. Climate change risk perceptions and communication work is critical for future climate policy and decisions.}, }
@article {pmid22706367, year = {2012}, author = {Vineis, P}, title = {[Climate change and communicable diseases].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {132-133}, pmid = {22706367}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Disease Vectors ; Ecosystem ; Global Health ; Humans ; Parasites/physiology ; Viruses ; Water/parasitology ; Water Microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid22703884, year = {2012}, author = {Berrang-Ford, L and Dingle, K and Ford, JD and Lee, C and Lwasa, S and Namanya, DB and Henderson, J and Llanos, A and Carcamo, C and Edge, V}, title = {Vulnerability of indigenous health to climate change: a case study of Uganda's Batwa Pygmies.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {75}, number = {6}, pages = {1067-1077}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.04.016}, pmid = {22703884}, issn = {1873-5347}, mesh = {Adult ; Black People/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Male ; Photography ; Qualitative Research ; Risk Factors ; Rural Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Uganda ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {The potential impacts of climate change on human health in sub-Saharan Africa are wide-ranging, complex, and largely adverse. The region's Indigenous peoples are considered to be at heightened risk given their relatively poor health outcomes, marginal social status, and resource-based livelihoods; however, little attention has been given to these most vulnerable of the vulnerable. This paper contributes to addressing this gap by taking a bottom-up approach to assessing health vulnerabilities to climate change in two Batwa Pygmy communities in rural Uganda. Rapid Rural Appraisal and PhotoVoice field methods complemented by qualitative data analysis were used to identify key climate-sensitive, community-identified health outcomes, describe determinants of sensitivity at multiple scales, and characterize adaptive capacity of Batwa health systems. The findings stress the importance of human drivers of vulnerability and adaptive capacity and the need to address social determinants of health in order to reduce the potential disease burden of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22702844, year = {2012}, author = {Brown, JL and Knowles, LL}, title = {Spatially explicit models of dynamic histories: examination of the genetic consequences of Pleistocene glaciation and recent climate change on the American Pika.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {15}, pages = {3757-3775}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2012.05640.x}, pmid = {22702844}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; Lagomorpha/*genetics ; Models, Biological ; *Models, Genetic ; Molecular Sequence Data ; North America ; *Phylogeography ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {A central goal of phylogeography is to identify and characterize the processes underlying divergence. One of the biggest impediments currently faced is how to capture the spatiotemporal dynamic under which a species evolved. Here, we described an approach that couples species distribution models (SDMs), demographic and genetic models in a spatiotemporally explicit manner. Analyses of American Pika (Ochotona princeps) from the sky islands of the central Rocky Mountains of North America are used to provide insights into key questions about integrative approaches in landscape genetics, population genetics and phylogeography. This includes (i) general issues surrounding the conversion of time-specific SDMs into simple continuous, dynamic landscapes from past to current, (ii) the utility of SDMs to inform demographic models with deme-specific carrying capacities and migration potentials as well as (iii) the contribution of the temporal dynamic of colonization history in shaping genetic patterns of contemporary populations. Our results support that the inclusion of a spatiotemporal dynamic is an important factor when studying the impact of distributional shifts on patterns of genetic data. Our results also demonstrate the utility of SDMs to generate species-specific predictions about patterns of genetic variation that account for varying degrees of habitat specialization and life history characteristics of taxa. Nevertheless, the results highlight some key issues when converting SDMs for use in demographic models. Because the transformations have direct effects on the genetic consequence of population expansion by prescribing how habitat heterogeneity and spatiotemporal variation is related to the species-specific demographic model, it is important to consider alternative transformations when studying the genetic consequences of distributional shifts.}, }
@article {pmid22699331, year = {2012}, author = {Gregersen, IB and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K}, title = {Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under the influence of climate change.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {66}, number = {2}, pages = {284-291}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2012.173}, pmid = {22699331}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; *Decision Making ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Rain ; }, abstract = {Several extraordinary rainfall events have occurred in Denmark within the last few years. For each event, problems in urban areas occurred as the capacity of the existing drainage systems were exceeded. Adaptation to climate change is necessary but also very challenging as urban drainage systems are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. One of the most important barriers for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored through the application and discussion of three different theoretical decision support strategies: the precautionary principle, the minimax strategy and Bayesian decision support. The reviewed decision support strategies all proved valuable for addressing the identified uncertainties, at best applied together as they all yield information that improved decision making and thus enabled more robust decisions.}, }
@article {pmid22698047, year = {2012}, author = {Frumkin, H and Fried, L and Moody, R}, title = {Aging, climate change, and legacy thinking.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {102}, number = {8}, pages = {1434-1438}, pmid = {22698047}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {Aged ; Aging/*psychology ; *Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Social Responsibility ; Social Values ; Volunteers ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a complex, long-term public health challenge. Older people are especially susceptible to certain climate change impacts, such as heat waves. We suggest that older people may be a resource for addressing climate change because of their concern for legacy--for leaving behind values, attitudes, and an intact world to their children and grandchildren. We review the theoretical basis for "legacy thinking" among older people. We offer suggestions for research on this phenomenon, and for action to strengthen the sense of legacy. At a time when older populations are growing, understanding and promoting legacy thinking may offer an important strategy for addressing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22698010, year = {2012}, author = {Bierman, A and Rea, MS}, title = {Climate change, fluorescent lighting, and eye disease: a little too light on the science.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {102}, number = {8}, pages = {e6; author reply e6-7}, pmid = {22698010}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Conservation of Energy Resources ; Eye/*radiation effects ; Eye Diseases/*etiology ; Humans ; Lighting/*adverse effects ; Ultraviolet Rays/*adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid22696805, year = {2012}, author = {Liao, KJ and Amar, P and Tagaris, E and Russell, AG}, title = {Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {557-565}, doi = {10.1080/10962247.2012.662928}, pmid = {22696805}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; Algorithms ; Climate Change ; Decision Making ; Models, Statistical ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies.<br><br>IMPLICATIONS: Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.}, }
@article {pmid22695877, year = {2013}, author = {Bajin, MD and Cingi, C and Oghan, F and Gurbuz, MK}, title = {Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.}, journal = {European archives of oto-rhino-laryngology : official journal of the European Federation of Oto-Rhino-Laryngological Societies (EUFOS) : affiliated with the German Society for Oto-Rhino-Laryngology - Head and Neck Surgery}, volume = {270}, number = {1}, pages = {27-31}, pmid = {22695877}, issn = {1434-4726}, mesh = {Asia/epidemiology ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology/immunology ; Pollen/immunology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective.}, }
@article {pmid22691478, year = {2012}, author = {van der Fels-Klerx, HJ and Goedhart, PW and Elen, O and Börjesson, T and Hietaniemi, V and Booij, CJ}, title = {Modeling deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat in northwestern Europe for climate change assessments.}, journal = {Journal of food protection}, volume = {75}, number = {6}, pages = {1099-1106}, doi = {10.4315/0362-028X.JFP-11-435}, pmid = {22691478}, issn = {1944-9097}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Europe ; Food Contamination/*analysis/prevention &amp; control ; Fusarium/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; *Models, Biological ; Mycotoxins/*analysis/biosynthesis ; Risk Assessment ; Seasons ; Trichothecenes/*analysis/biosynthesis ; Triticum/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Climate change will affect mycotoxin contamination of feed and food. Mathematical models for predicting mycotoxin concentrations in cereal grains are useful for estimating the impact of climate change on these toxins. The objective of the current study was to construct a descriptive model to estimate climate change impacts on deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination of mature wheat grown in northwestern Europe. Observational data from 717 wheat fields in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and The Netherlands were analyzed, including the DON concentrations in mature wheat, agronomical practices, and local weather. Multiple regression analyses were conducted, and the best set of explanatory variables, mainly including weather factors, was selected. The final model included the following variables: flowering date, length of time between flowering and harvest, wheat resistance to Fusarium infection, and several climatic variables related to relative humidity, temperature, and rainfall during critical stages of wheat cultivation. The model accounted for 50 % of the variance, which was sufficient to make this model useful for estimating the trends of climate change on DON contamination of wheat in northwestern Europe. Application of the model in possible climate change scenarios is illustrated.}, }
@article {pmid22691199, year = {2012}, author = {Koopowitz, H and Hawkins, BA}, title = {Global climate change is confounding species conservation strategies.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {158-164}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-4877.2012.00285.x}, pmid = {22691199}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/trends ; *Ecosystem ; Orchidaceae/*physiology ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Most organisms face similar problems with respect to their conservation in the face of global climate change. Here, we examine probable effects of climate change on the hyperdiverse plant family Orchidaceae. In the 20th century, the major concerns for orchid conservation revolved around unsustainable harvest for the orchid trade and, more importantly, land conversion from natural ecosystems to those unable to support wild orchid populations. Land conversion included logging, fire regimes and forest conversions to agricultural systems. Although those forms of degradation continue, an additional suite of threats has emerged, fueled by global climate change. Global climate change involves more than responses of orchid populations to increases in ambient temperature. Increasing temperature induces secondary effects that can be more significant than simple changes in temperature. Among these new threats are extended and prolonged fire seasons, rising sea levels, increases in cyclonic storms, seasonal climate shifts, changes in orthographic wind dew point and increased drought. The long-term outlook for orchid biodiversity in the wild is dismal, as it is for many animal groups, and we need to start rethinking strategies for conservation in a rapidly changing world.}, }
@article {pmid22691198, year = {2012}, author = {Imbert, CE and Goussard, F and Roques, A}, title = {Is the expansion of the pine processionary moth, due to global warming, impacting the endangered Spanish moon moth through an induced change in food quality?.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {147-157}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-4877.2012.00289.x}, pmid = {22691198}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {Animal Nutritional Physiological Phenomena/physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Competitive Behavior/physiology ; *Demography ; *Ecosystem ; *Endangered Species ; France ; Larva/growth &amp; development ; Moths/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Statistics, Nonparametric ; }, abstract = {Recent climate change is known to affect the distribution of a number of insect species, resulting in a modification of their range boundaries. In newly colonized areas, novel interactions become apparent between expanding and endemic species sharing the same host. The pine processionary moth is a highly damaging pine defoliator, extending its range northwards and upwards in response to winter warming. Its expansion in the Alps has resulted in an invasion into the range of the Spanish moon moth, a red listed species developing on Scots pine. Pine processionary moth larvae develop during winter, preceding those of the moon moth, which hatch in late spring. Using pine trees planted in a clonal design, we experimentally tested the effect of previous winter defoliation by pine processionary moth larvae upon the survival and development of moon moth larvae. Feeding on foliage of heavily defoliated trees (>50%) resulted in a significant increase in the development time of moon moth larvae and a decrease in relative growth rate compared to feeding on foliage of undefoliated trees. Dry weight of pupae also decreased when larvae were fed with foliage of defoliated trees, and might, therefore, affect imago performances. However, lower defoliation degrees did not result in significant differences in larval performances compared to the control. Because a high degree of defoliation by pine processionary moth is to be expected during the colonization phase, its arrival in subalpine pine stands might affect the populations of the endangered moon moth.}, }
@article {pmid22690632, year = {2012}, author = {Liancourt, P and Spence, LA and Boldgiv, B and Lkhagva, A and Helliker, BR and Casper, BB and Petraitis, PS}, title = {Vulnerability of the northern Mongolian steppe to climate change: insights from flower production and phenology.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {93}, number = {4}, pages = {815-824}, doi = {10.1890/11-1003.1}, pmid = {22690632}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Flowers/*physiology ; Mongolia ; Plants/classification ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The semiarid, northern Mongolian steppe, which still supports pastoral nomads who have used the steppe for millennia, has experienced an average 1.7 degrees C temperature rise over the past 40 years. Continuing climate change is likely to affect flowering phenology and flower numbers with potentially important consequences for plant community composition, ecosystem services, and herder livelihoods. Over the growing seasons of 2009 and 2010, we examined flowering responses to climate manipulation using open-top passive warming chambers (OTCs) at two locations on a south-facing slope: one on the moister, cooler lower slope and the other on the drier, warmer upper slope, where a watering treatment was added in a factorial design with warming. Canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP) revealed that OTCs reduced flower production and delayed peak flowering in graminoids as a whole but only affected forbs on the upper slope, where peak flowering was also delayed. OTCs affected flowering phenology in seven of eight species, which were examined individually, either by altering the time of peak flowering and/or the onset and/or cessation of flowering, as revealed by survival analysis. In 2010, which was the drier year, OTCs reduced flower production in two grasses but increased production in an annual forb found only on the upper slope. The particular effects of OTCs on phenology, and whether they caused an extension or contraction of the flowering season, differed among species, and often depended on year, or slope, or watering treatment; however, a relatively strong pattern emerged for 2010 when four species showed a contraction of the flowering season in OTCs. Watering increased flower production in two species in 2010, but slope location more often affected flowering phenology than did watering. Our results show the importance of taking landscape-scale variation into account in climate change studies and also contrasted with those of several studies set in cold, but wetter systems, where warming often causes greater or accelerated flower production. In cold, water-limited systems like the Mongolian steppe, warming may reduce flower numbers or the length of the flowering season by adding to water stress more than it relieves cold stress.}, }
@article {pmid22690167, year = {2012}, author = {Thompson, AA and Matamale, L and Kharidza, SD}, title = {Impact of climate change on children's health in Limpopo Province, South Africa.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {831-854}, pmid = {22690167}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Asthma/*epidemiology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Diarrhea/*epidemiology ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Malaria/*epidemiology ; Male ; Meningitis/*epidemiology ; Prevalence ; Rain ; Respiratory Tract Infections/*epidemiology ; South Africa/epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This paper examines the impact of climate change on children's health, in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. Twenty one years climatic data were collected to analyse climatic conditions in the province. The study also employs 12 years hospital records of clinically diagnosed climate-related ailments among children under 13 years to examine the incidence, spatio-temporal, age and sex variations of the diseases. Regression analysis was employed to examine the relationships between climatic parameters and incidence of diseases and also to predict distribution of disease by 2050. The results show that the most prevalent diseases were diarrhea (42.4%), followed by respiratory infection (31.3%), asthma (6.6%) and malaria (6.5%). The incidence varied within city, with the high density areas recording the highest proportion (76.7%), followed by the medium (9.4%) and low (2.5%) density residential areas. The most tropical location, Mussina, had the highest incidence of the most prevalent disease, diarrhea, with 59.4%. Mortality rate was higher for males (54.2%). Analysis of 21 years of climatic data show that maximum temperature is positively correlated with years in four cities with r coefficients of 0.50; 0.56, 0.48 and 0.02, thereby indicating local warming. Similarly rainfall decreased over time in all the cities, with r ranging from -0.02 for Bela Bela to r = 0.18 for Makhado. Results of the regression analysis show that 37.9% of disease incidence is accounted for by the combined influence of temperature and rainfall.}, }
@article {pmid22685477, year = {2012}, author = {Salomón, OD and Quintana, MG and Mastrángelo, AV and Fernández, MS}, title = {Leishmaniasis and climate change-case study: Argentina.}, journal = {Journal of tropical medicine}, volume = {2012}, number = {}, pages = {601242}, pmid = {22685477}, issn = {1687-9694}, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases closely associated with the environment, such as leishmaniases, have been a usual argument about the deleterious impact of climate change on public health. From the biological point of view interaction of different variables has different and even conflicting effects on the survival of vectors and the probability transmission of pathogens. The results on ecoepidemiology of leishmaniasis in Argentina related to climate variables at different scales of space and time are presented. These studies showed that the changes in transmission due to change or increase in frequency and intensity of climatic instability were expressed through changes in the probability of vector-human reservoir effective contacts. These changes of contact in turn are modulated by both direct effects on the biology and ecology of the organisms involved, as by perceptions and changes in the behavior of the human communities at risk. Therefore, from the perspective of public health and state policy, and taking into account the current nonlinear increased velocity of climate change, we concluded that discussing the uncertainties of large-scale models will have lower impact than to develop-validate mitigation strategies to be operative at local level, and compatibles with sustainable development, conservation biodiversity, and respect for cultural diversity.}, }
@article {pmid22683179, year = {2012}, author = {Barna, S and Goodman, B and Mortimer, F}, title = {The health effects of climate change: what does a nurse need to know?.}, journal = {Nurse education today}, volume = {32}, number = {7}, pages = {765-771}, doi = {10.1016/j.nedt.2012.05.012}, pmid = {22683179}, issn = {1532-2793}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Curriculum ; Education, Nursing/*organization &amp; administration ; Geography, Medical/*education ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Needs Assessment ; Nurse's Role ; Nursing Education Research ; Nursing Evaluation Research ; }, abstract = {The scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change has been established with increasing precision and there are widespread concerns about its potential to undermine the public health gains of the past century. There is also a growing consensus across private and public sector organisations at national and international level that carbon reduction should be a policy aim. Various international nursing organisations have made strong position statements on the issue, arguing that nurses should be actively engaged as part of their roles in both health promotion and clinical practice. We point to education for sustainability initiatives in other health professions and share resources for curriculum development in nursing. The nurses of tomorrow will make a unique and significant contribution to protecting population health in an unstable climate, if today's nursing educators can help prepare them for this role.}, }
@article {pmid22682306, year = {2012}, author = {Zapletal, M and Pretel, J and Chroust, P and Cudlín, P and Edwards-Jonášová, M and Urban, O and Pokorný, R and Czerný, R and Hůnová, I}, title = {The influence of climate change on stomatal ozone flux to a mountain Norway spruce forest.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {169}, number = {}, pages = {267-273}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2012.05.008}, pmid = {22682306}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis/*metabolism ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Norway ; Ozone/analysis/*metabolism ; Picea/chemistry/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Plant Stomata/chemistry/*metabolism ; Seasons ; Trees/chemistry/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Daily stomatal ozone flux to a mountain Norway spruce forest stand at the Bily Kriz experimental site in the Beskydy Mts. (Czech Republic) was modelled using a multiplicative model during the 2009 growing season. The multiplicative model was run with meteorological data for the growing season 2009 and ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ model data for the 2030 growing season. The exceedance of the flux-based critical level of O(3) (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose) might be lower for Norway spruce at the Bily Kriz experimental site in a future climate (around 2030), due to increased stomatal closure induced by climate change, even when taking into account increased tropospheric background O(3) concentration. In contrast, exceedance of the concentration-based critical level (AOT40) of O(3) will increase with the projected increase in background O(3) concentration. Ozone concentration and stomatal flux of ozone significantly decreased NEP under both present and future climatic conditions, especially under high intensities of solar radiation.}, }
@article {pmid22682005, year = {2012}, author = {Antic, NA}, title = {Global warming and increased sleep disordered breathing mortality, rising carbon dioxide levels are a serial pest.}, journal = {Respirology (Carlton, Vic.)}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {885-886}, doi = {10.1111/j.1440-1843.2012.02210.x}, pmid = {22682005}, issn = {1440-1843}, mesh = {Female ; Humans ; Hypercapnia/*epidemiology ; Male ; Sleep Apnea Syndromes/*mortality ; }, }
@article {pmid22679398, year = {2012}, author = {Holmner, A and Rocklöv, J and Ng, N and Nilsson, M}, title = {Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {22679398}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Delivery of Health Care/*organization &amp; administration ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Medical Informatics ; Telemedicine/*organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of today's most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health information technology, such as eHealth, in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The promising role of eHealth as an adaptation strategy to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change, and the link's between mitigation and adaptation, are also discussed. The topic of environmental eHealth has gained little attention to date, despite its potential to contribute to more sustainable and green health care. A growing number of local and global initiatives on 'green information and communication technology (ICT)' are now mentioning eHealth as a promising technology with the potential to reduce emission rates from ICT use. However, the embracing of eHealth is slow because of limitations in technological infrastructure, capacity and political will. Further research on potential emissions reductions and co-benefits with green ICT, in terms of health outcomes and economic effectiveness, would be valuable to guide development and implementation of eHealth in health sector mitigation and adaptation policies.}, }
@article {pmid22679396, year = {2012}, author = {Singh, JA}, title = {Why human health and health ethics must be central to climate change deliberations.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e1001229}, pmid = {22679396}, issn = {1549-1676}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Decision Making ; Humans ; Public Health/*ethics ; }, abstract = {Jerome Singh argues that health ethics principles must be afforded equal status to economics principles in climate change deliberations, and that the health community must play more of a leadership role.}, }
@article {pmid22679395, year = {2012}, author = {Nilsson, M and Evengård, B and Sauerborn, R and Byass, P}, title = {Connecting the global climate change and public health agendas.}, journal = {PLoS medicine}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {e1001227}, pmid = {22679395}, issn = {1549-1676}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Internationality ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Peter Byass and colleagues urge public health professionals to strengthen their response and develop actions to bring health and climate co-benefits.}, }
@article {pmid22679088, year = {2012}, author = {Kurita, N}, title = {Climate change. Dancing to the tune of the glacial cycles.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {336}, number = {6086}, pages = {1242-1243}, doi = {10.1126/science.1223527}, pmid = {22679088}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22676374, year = {2012}, author = {Johansson, J and Jonzén, N}, title = {Game theory sheds new light on ecological responses to current climate change when phenology is historically mismatched.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {881-888}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01812.x}, pmid = {22676374}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Ecology ; *Game Theory ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Phenological changes are well documented biological effects of current climate change but their adaptive value and demographic consequences are poorly known. Game theoretical models have shown that deviating from the fitness-maximising phenology can be evolutionary stable under frequency-dependent selection. We study eco-evolutionary responses to climate change when the historical phenology is mismatched in this way. For illustration we model adaptation of arrival dates in migratory birds that compete for territories at their breeding grounds. We simulate climate change by shifting the timing and the length of the favourable season for breeding. We show that initial trends in changes of population densities can be either reinforced or counteracted during the ensuing evolutionary adaptation. We find in total seven qualitatively different population trajectories during the transition to a new evolutionary equilibrium. This surprising diversity of eco-evolutionary responses provides adaptive explanations to the observed variation in phenological responses to recent climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22676312, year = {2012}, author = {Eklöf, JS and Alsterberg, C and Havenhand, JN and Sundbäck, K and Wood, HL and Gamfeldt, L}, title = {Experimental climate change weakens the insurance effect of biodiversity.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {15}, number = {8}, pages = {864-872}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01810.x}, pmid = {22676312}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Food Chain ; Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Plants ; }, abstract = {Ecosystems are simultaneously affected by biodiversity loss and climate change, but we know little about how these factors interact. We predicted that climate warming and CO (2) -enrichment should strengthen trophic cascades by reducing the relative efficiency of predation-resistant herbivores, if herbivore consumption rate trades off with predation resistance. This weakens the insurance effect of herbivore diversity. We tested this prediction using experimental ocean warming and acidification in seagrass mesocosms. Meta-analyses of published experiments first indicated that consumption rate trades off with predation resistance. The experiment then showed that three common herbivores together controlled macroalgae and facilitated seagrass dominance, regardless of climate change. When the predation-vulnerable herbivore was excluded in normal conditions, the two resistant herbivores maintained top-down control. Under warming, however, increased algal growth outstripped control by herbivores and the system became algal-dominated. Consequently, climate change can reduce the relative efficiency of resistant herbivores and weaken the insurance effect of biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid22673363, year = {2012}, author = {Lemke, B and Kjellstrom, T}, title = {Calculating workplace WBGT from meteorological data: a tool for climate change assessment.}, journal = {Industrial health}, volume = {50}, number = {4}, pages = {267-278}, doi = {10.2486/indhealth.ms1352}, pmid = {22673363}, issn = {1880-8026}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Environment ; Heat Stress Disorders/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Mathematical Concepts ; *Weather ; Workplace ; }, abstract = {The WBGT heat stress index has been well tested under a variety of climatic conditions and quantitative links have been established between WBGT and the work-rest cycles needed to prevent heat stress effects at the workplace. While there are more specific methods based on individual physiological measurements to determine heat strain in an individual worker, the WBGT index is used in international and national standards to specify workplace heat stress risks. In order to assess time trends of occupational heat exposure at population level, weather station records or climate modelling are the most widely available data sources. The prescribed method to measure WBGT requires special equipment which is not used at weather stations. We compared published methods to calculate outdoor and indoor WBGT from standard climate data, such as air temperature, dew point temperature, wind speed and solar radiation. Specific criteria for recommending a method were developed and original measurements were used to evaluate the different methods. We recommend the method of Liljegren et al. (2008) for calculating outdoor WBGT and the method by Bernard et al. (1999) for indoor WBGT when estimating climate change impacts on occupational heat stress at a population level.}, }
@article {pmid22672811, year = {2012}, author = {Paoletti, E and Cudlin, P}, title = {Ozone, climate change and forests.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {169}, number = {}, pages = {249}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2012.05.024}, pmid = {22672811}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ozone/*analysis/pharmacology ; Trees/*drug effects/growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid22641836, year = {2012}, author = {Silvestre, F and Gillardin, V and Dorts, J}, title = {Proteomics to assess the role of phenotypic plasticity in aquatic organisms exposed to pollution and global warming.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {52}, number = {5}, pages = {681-694}, doi = {10.1093/icb/ics087}, pmid = {22641836}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/genetics/*metabolism ; Biological Evolution ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Genotype ; *Global Warming ; *Phenotype ; Proteome/analysis/genetics/metabolism ; Proteomics/*methods ; Selection, Genetic ; Stress, Physiological ; Systems Biology/methods ; Transcriptome ; Water Pollutants/adverse effects ; Water Pollution/*adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Nowadays, the unprecedented rates of anthropogenic changes in ecosystems suggest that organisms have to migrate to new distributional ranges or to adapt commensurately quickly to new conditions to avoid becoming extinct. Pollution and global warming are two of the most important threats aquatic organisms will have to face in the near future. If genetic changes in a population in response to natural selection are extensively studied, the role of acclimation through phenotypic plasticity (the property of a given genotype to produce different phenotypes in response to particular environmental conditions) in a species to deal with new environmental conditions remains largely unknown. Proteomics is the extensive study of the protein complement of a genome. It is dynamic and depends on the specific tissue, developmental stage, and environmental conditions. As the final product of gene expression, it is subjected to several regulatory steps from gene transcription to the functional protein. Consequently, there is a discrepancy between the abundance of mRNA and the abundance of the corresponding protein. Moreover, proteomics is closer to physiology and gives a more functional knowledge of the regulation of gene expression than does transcriptomics. The study of protein-expression profiles, however, gives a better portrayal of the cellular phenotype and is considered as a key link between the genotype and the organismal phenotype. Under new environmental conditions, we can observe a shift of the protein-expression pattern defining a new cellular phenotype that can possibly improve the fitness of the organism. It is now necessary to define a proteomic norm of reaction for organisms acclimating to environmental stressors. Its link to fitness will give new insights into how organisms can evolve in a changing environment. The proteomic literature bearing on chronic exposure to pollutants and on acclimation to heat stress in aquatic organisms, as well as potential application of proteomics in evolutionary issues, are outlined. While the transcriptome responses are commonly investigated, proteomics approaches now need to be intensified, with the new perspective of integrating the cellular phenotype with the organismal phenotype and with the mechanisms of the regulation of gene expression, such as epigenetics.}, }
@article {pmid22641243, year = {2012}, author = {Wu, Y and Liu, S and Gallant, AL}, title = {Predicting impacts of increased CO2 and climate change on the water cycle and water quality in the semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {430}, number = {}, pages = {150-160}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.04.058}, pmid = {22641243}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; Groundwater/analysis ; Hot Temperature ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrates/*analysis ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; North Dakota ; Rain ; Rivers ; Snow ; South Dakota ; Time Factors ; *Water Cycle ; Water Quality ; }, abstract = {Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO(2) concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO(3)-N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO(2), precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO(2) concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO(3)-N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO(3)-N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin.}, }
@article {pmid22634744, year = {2012}, author = {Hirata, R and Conicelli, BP}, title = {Groundwater resources in Brazil: a review of possible impacts caused by climate change.}, journal = {Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias}, volume = {84}, number = {2}, pages = {297-312}, doi = {10.1590/s0001-37652012005000037}, pmid = {22634744}, issn = {1678-2690}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Groundwater ; Humans ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Groundwater has a strategic role in times of climate change mainly because aquifers can provide water for long periods, even during very long and severe drought. The reduction and/or changes on the precipitation pattern can diminish the recharge mainly in unconfined aquifer, causing available groundwater restriction. The expected impact of long-term climate changes on the Brazilian aquifers for 2050 will lead to a severe reduction in 70% of recharge in the Northeast region aquifers (comparing to 2010 values), varying from 30% to 70% in the North region. Data referring to the South and Southeast regions are more favorable, with an increase in the relative recharge values from 30% to 100%. Another expected impact is the increase in demand and the decrease in the surface water availability that will make the population turn to aquifers as its main source of water for public or private uses in many regions of the country. Thus, an integrated use of surface and groundwater must therefore be considered in the water use planning. The solution of water scarcity is based on three factors: society growth awareness, better knowledge on the characteristics of hydraulic and chemical aquifers and effective management actions.}, }
@article {pmid22632569, year = {2012}, author = {Bowen, KJ and Friel, S}, title = {Climate change adaptation: where does global health fit in the agenda?.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {10}, pmid = {22632569}, issn = {1744-8603}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/trends ; *Global Health ; Health Policy ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.}, }
@article {pmid22628565, year = {2012}, author = {Pittermann, J and Stuart, SA and Dawson, TE and Moreau, A}, title = {Cenozoic climate change shaped the evolutionary ecophysiology of the Cupressaceae conifers.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {24}, pages = {9647-9652}, pmid = {22628565}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Fossils ; Tracheophyta/*genetics ; }, abstract = {The Cupressaceae clade has the broadest diversity in habitat and morphology of any conifer family. This clade is characterized by highly divergent physiological strategies, with deciduous swamp-adapted genera-like Taxodium at one extreme, and evergreen desert genera-like Cupressus at the other. The size disparity within the Cupressaceae is equally impressive, with members ranging from 5-m-tall juniper shrubs to 100-m-tall redwood trees. Phylogenetic studies demonstrate that despite this variation, these taxa all share a single common ancestor; by extension, they also share a common ancestral habitat. Here, we use a common-garden approach to compare xylem and leaf-level physiology in this family. We then apply comparative phylogenetic methods to infer how Cenozoic climatic change shaped the morphological and physiological differences between modern-day members of the Cupressaceae. Our data show that drought-resistant crown clades (the Cupressoid and Callitroid clades) most likely evolved from drought-intolerant Mesozoic ancestors, and that this pattern is consistent with proposed shifts in post-Eocene paleoclimates. We also provide evidence that within the Cupressaceae, the evolution of drought-resistant xylem is coupled to increased carbon investment in xylem tissue, reduced xylem transport efficiency, and at the leaf level, reduced photosynthetic capacity. Phylogenetically based analyses suggest that the ancestors of the Cupressaceae were dependent upon moist habitats, and that drought-resistant physiology developed along with increasing habitat aridity from the Oligocene onward. We conclude that the modern biogeography of the Cupressaceae conifers was shaped in large part by their capacity to adapt to drought.}, }
@article {pmid22622576, year = {2012}, author = {Wolkovich, EM and Cook, BI and Allen, JM and Crimmins, TM and Betancourt, JL and Travers, SE and Pau, S and Regetz, J and Davies, TJ and Kraft, NJ and Ault, TR and Bolmgren, K and Mazer, SJ and McCabe, GJ and McGill, BJ and Parmesan, C and Salamin, N and Schwartz, MD and Cleland, EE}, title = {Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {485}, number = {7399}, pages = {494-497}, pmid = {22622576}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Artifacts ; Ecosystem ; Flowers/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; *Periodicity ; Plant Development ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/classification ; Reproducibility of Results ; Soil/chemistry ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.}, }
@article {pmid22622562, year = {2012}, author = {Rutishauser, T and Stöckli, R and Harte, J and Kueppers, L}, title = {Climate change: Flowering in the greenhouse.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {485}, number = {7399}, pages = {448-449}, pmid = {22622562}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; *Periodicity ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; *Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid22615804, year = {2012}, author = {Shrestha, UB and Gautam, S and Bawa, KS}, title = {Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {e36741}, pmid = {22615804}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; India ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ~20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology.<br><br>By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5 &#xb0;C with an average increase of 0.06 &#xb0;C yr(-1). The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr(-1). Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1) and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1), but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22607281, year = {2012}, author = {Andersen, LK and Hercogová, J and Wollina, U and Davis, MD}, title = {Climate change and skin disease: a review of the English-language literature.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {51}, number = {6}, pages = {656-61; quiz 659, 661}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-4632.2011.05258.x}, pmid = {22607281}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Dermatitis, Atopic/*epidemiology ; Disease Vectors ; Humans ; Skin Diseases, Infectious/*epidemiology ; Skin Neoplasms/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change describes variation in regional or global climates over time. The question of how climate change affects skin disease remains largely unanswered. We reviewed the English-language literature describing the influence of climate change on skin. Relatively few publications detail aspects of how climate change affects skin. Direct effects include the effects of extreme weather events, and indirect effects include the effects of longer-term changes in patterns of infections and infestations worldwide. The effect of climate change on skin is unclear, and more studies on this topic are needed.}, }
@article {pmid22605765, year = {2012}, author = {Scheffran, J and Brzoska, M and Kominek, J and Link, PM and Schilling, J}, title = {Climate change and violent conflict.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {336}, number = {6083}, pages = {869-871}, doi = {10.1126/science.1221339}, pmid = {22605765}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Aggression ; *Climate Change ; *Conflict, Psychological ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Data Collection ; Databases, Factual ; Humans ; Politics ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Violence ; }, abstract = {Current debates over the relation between climate change and conflict originate in a lack of data, as well as the complexity of pathways connecting the two phenomena.}, }
@article {pmid22595069, year = {2012}, author = {Cunsolo Willox, A and Harper, SL and Ford, JD and Landman, K and Houle, K and Edge, VL and , }, title = {"From this place and of this place:" climate change, sense of place, and health in Nunatsiavut, Canada.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {75}, number = {3}, pages = {538-547}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.03.043}, pmid = {22595069}, issn = {1873-5347}, support = {//Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canada ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Emotions ; Food Supply ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Inuit/*psychology ; Male ; Mental Health/*ethnology ; Middle Aged ; Newfoundland and Labrador/epidemiology ; Nunavut/epidemiology ; Qualitative Research ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {As climate change impacts are felt around the globe, people are increasingly exposed to changes in weather patterns, wildlife and vegetation, and water and food quality, access and availability in their local regions. These changes can impact human health and well-being in a variety of ways: increased risk of foodborne and waterborne diseases; increased frequency and distribution of vector-borne disease; increased mortality and injury due to extreme weather events and heat waves; increased respiratory and cardiovascular disease due to changes in air quality and increased allergens in the air; and increased susceptibility to mental and emotional health challenges. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are experienced most acutely in place; as such, a sense of place, place-attachment, and place-based identities are important indicators for climate-related health and adaptation. Representing one of the first qualitative case studies to examine the connections among climate change, a changing sense of place, and health in an Inuit context, this research draws data from a multi-year community-driven case study situated in the Inuit community of Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada. Data informing this paper were drawn from the narrative analysis of 72 in-depth interviews conducted from November 2009 to October 2010, as well as from the descriptive analysis of 112 questionnaires from a survey in October 2010 (95% response rate). The findings illustrated that climate change is negatively affecting feelings of place attachment by disrupting hunting, fishing, foraging, trapping, and traveling, and changing local landscapes-changes which subsequently impact physical, mental, and emotional health and well-being. These results also highlight the need to develop context-specific climate-health planning and adaptation programs, and call for an understanding of place-attachment as a vital indicator of health and well-being and for climate change to be framed as an important determinant of health.}, }
@article {pmid22594718, year = {2012}, author = {Ford, JD}, title = {Indigenous health and climate change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {102}, number = {7}, pages = {1260-1266}, pmid = {22594718}, issn = {1541-0048}, support = {//Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canada ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Global Health ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Population Groups ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Indigenous populations have been identified as vulnerable to climate change. This framing, however, is detached from the diverse geographies of how people experience, understand, and respond to climate-related health outcomes, and overlooks nonclimatic determinants. I reviewed research on indigenous health and climate change to capture place-based dimensions of vulnerability and broader determining factors. Studies focused primarily on Australia and the Arctic, and indicated significant adaptive capacity, with active responses to climate-related health risks. However, nonclimatic stresses including poverty, land dispossession, globalization, and associated sociocultural transitions challenge this adaptability. Addressing geographic gaps in existing studies alongside greater focus on indigenous conceptualizations on and approaches to health, examination of global-local interactions shaping local vulnerability, enhanced surveillance, and an evaluation of policy support opportunities are key foci for future research.}, }
@article {pmid22594592, year = {2012}, author = {Andelman, S and Hannah, L and Shaw, R}, title = {Conservation focus: Costs of adapting conservation to climate change. Introduction.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {385}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2012.01862.x}, pmid = {22594592}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {California ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; Madagascar ; Models, Biological ; South Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid22591333, year = {2012}, author = {Liu, Y and Mu, J and Niklas, KJ and Li, G and Sun, S}, title = {Global warming reduces plant reproductive output for temperate multi-inflorescence species on the Tibetan plateau.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {195}, number = {2}, pages = {427-436}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04178.x}, pmid = {22591333}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Inflorescence/*physiology ; Linear Models ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/anatomy &amp; histology ; Pollination/physiology ; Reproduction/physiology ; Seeds/growth &amp; development ; Species Specificity ; Tibet ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {• Temperature is projected to increase more during the winter than during the summer in cold regions. The effects of winter warming on reproductive effort have not been examined for temperate plant species. • Here, we report the results of experimentally induced seasonal winter warming (0.4 and 2.4°C increases in growing and nongrowing seasons, respectively, using warmed and ambient open-top chambers in a Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow) for nine indeterminate-growing species producing multiple (single-flowered or multi-flowered) inflorescences and three determinate-growing species producing single inflorescences after a 3-yr period of warming. • Warming reduced significantly flower number and seed production per plant for all nine multi-inflorescence species, but not for the three single-inflorescence species. Warming had an insignificant effect on the fruit to flower number ratio, seed size and seed number per fruit among species. The reduction in seed production was largely attributable to the decline in flower number per plant. The flowering onset time was unaffected for nine of the 12 species. Therefore, the decline in flower production and seed production in response to winter warming probably reflects a physiological response (e.g. metabolic changes associated with flower production). • Collectively, the data indicate that global warming may reduce flower and seed production for temperate herbaceous species and will probably have a differential effect on single- vs multi-inflorescence species.}, }
@article {pmid22591287, year = {2012}, author = {Raffa, RB and Eltoukhy, NS and Raffa, KF}, title = {Implications of climate change (global warming) for the healthcare system.}, journal = {Journal of clinical pharmacy and therapeutics}, volume = {37}, number = {5}, pages = {502-504}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2710.2012.01355.x}, pmid = {22591287}, issn = {1365-2710}, mesh = {Cryptococcosis/epidemiology/microbiology ; Cryptococcus gattii/growth &amp; development/isolation &amp; purification ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; }, abstract = {WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: Temperature-sensitive pathogenic species and their vectors and hosts are emerging in previously colder regions as a consequence of several factors, including global warming. As a result, an increasing number of people will be exposed to pathogens against which they have not previously needed defences. We illustrate this with a specific example of recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii infections in more temperate climates.<br><br>COMMENT: The outbreaks in more temperate climates of the highly virulent--but usually tropically restricted--C. gattii is illustrative of an anticipated growing challenge for the healthcare system. There is a need for preparedness by healthcare professionals in anticipation and for management of such outbreaks, including other infections whose recent increased prevalence in temperate climates can be at least partly associated with global warming.<br><br>WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: (Re)emergence of temperature-sensitive pathogenic species in more temperate climates will present new challenges for healthcare systems. Preparation for outbreaks should precede their occurrence.}, }
@article {pmid22588698, year = {2013}, author = {Chmielewski, FM and Blümel, K and Scherbaum-Heberer, C and Koppmann-Rumpf, B and Schmidt, KH}, title = {A model approach to project the start of egg laying of Great Tit (Parus major L.) in response to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {57}, number = {2}, pages = {287-297}, pmid = {22588698}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Oviparity ; Passeriformes/*physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The aim of this study was to select a phenological model that is able to calculate the beginning of egg laying of Great Tit (Parus major) for both current and future climate conditions. Four models (M1-M4) were optimised on long-term phenological observations from the Ecological Research Centre Schlüchtern (Hessen/Germany). Model M1 was a common thermal time model that accumulates growing degree days (GDD) on an optimised starting date t (1). Since egg laying of Great Tit is influenced not only by air temperature but also by photoperiod, model M1 was extended by a daylength term to give M2. The other two models, M3 and M4, correspond to M1 and M2, but t (1) was intentionally set to 1 January, in order to consider already rising temperatures at the beginning of the year. A comparison of the four models led to following results: model M1 had a relatively high root mean square error at verification (RMSE(ver)) of more than 4 days and can be used only to calculate the start of egg laying for current climate conditions because of the relatively late starting date for GDD calculation. The model failed completely if the starting date was set to 1 January (M3). Consideration of a daylength term in models M2 and M4 improved the performance of both models strongly (RMSE(ver) of only 3 days or less), increased the credibility of parameter estimation, and was a precondition to calculate reliable projections in the timing of egg laying in birds for the future. These results confirm that the start of egg laying of Great Tit is influenced not only by air temperature, but also by photoperiod. Although models M2 and M4 both provide comparably good results for current climate conditions, we recommend model M4-with a starting date of temperature accumulation on 1 January-for calculating possible future shifts in the commencement of egg laying. Our regional projections in the start of egg laying, based on five regional climate models (RCMs: REMO-UBA, ECHAM5-CLM, HadCM3-CLM, WETTREG-0, WETTREG-1, GHG emission scenario A1B), indicate that in the near future (2011-2040) no significant change will take place. However, in the mid- (2041-2070) and long-term (2071-2100) range the beginning of egg laying could be advanced significantly by up to 11 days on average of all five RCMs. This result corresponds to the already observed shift in the timing of egg laying by about 1 week, due mainly to an abrupt increase in air temperature at the end of the 1980s by 1.2 K between April and May. The use of five regional climate scenarios additionally allowed to estimate uncertainties among the RCMs.}, }
@article {pmid22586104, year = {2012}, author = {Schloss, CA and Nuñez, TA and Lawler, JJ}, title = {Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {22}, pages = {8606-8611}, pmid = {22586104}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Humans ; Mammals/classification/*growth &amp; development ; *Models, Biological ; North America ; Population Dynamics ; South America ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {As they have in response to past climatic changes, many species will shift their distributions in response to modern climate change. However, due to the unprecedented rapidity of projected climatic changes, some species may not be able to move their ranges fast enough to track shifts in suitable climates and associated habitats. Here, we investigate the ability of 493 mammals to keep pace with projected climatic changes in the Western Hemisphere. We modeled the velocities at which species will likely need to move to keep pace with projected changes in suitable climates. We compared these velocities with the velocities at which species are able to move as a function of dispersal distances and dispersal frequencies. Across the Western Hemisphere, on average, 9.2% of mammals at a given location will likely be unable to keep pace with climate change. In some places, up to 39% of mammals may be unable to track shifts in suitable climates. Eighty-seven percent of mammalian species are expected to experience reductions in range size and 20% of these range reductions will likely be due to limited dispersal abilities as opposed to reductions in the area of suitable climate. Because climate change will likely outpace the response capacity of many mammals, mammalian vulnerability to climate change may be more extensive than previously anticipated.}, }
@article {pmid22584509, year = {2012}, author = {McClymont Peace, D and Myers, E}, title = {Community-based participatory process--climate change and health adaptation program for Northern First Nations and Inuit in Canada.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {71}, number = {0}, pages = {1-8}, pmid = {22584509}, issn = {2242-3982}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Community-Based Participatory Research ; Health Planning ; Humans ; *Indians, North American ; *Inuit ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Health Canada's Program for Climate Change and Health Adaptation in Northern First Nation and Inuit Communities is unique among Canadian federal programs in that it enables community-based participatory research by northern communities.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: The program was designed to build capacity by funding communities to conduct their own research in cooperation with Aboriginal associations, academics, and governments; that way, communities could develop health-related adaptation plans and communication materials that would help in adaptation decision-making at the community, regional, national and circumpolar levels with respect to human health and a changing environment.<br><br>METHODS: Community visits and workshops were held to familiarize northerners with the impacts of climate change on their health, as well as methods to develop research proposals and budgets to meet program requirements.<br><br>RESULTS: Since the launch of the Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program in 2008, Health Canada has funded 36 community projects across Canada's North that focus on relevant health issues caused by climate change. In addition, the program supported capacity-building workshops for northerners, as well as a Pan-Arctic Results Workshop to bring communities together to showcase the results of their research. Results include: numerous films and photo-voice products that engage youth and elders and are available on the web; community-based ice monitoring, surveillance and communication networks; and information products on land, water and ice safety, drinking water, food security and safety, and traditional medicine.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Through these efforts, communities have increased their knowledge and understanding of the health effects related to climate change and have begun to develop local adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid22583075, year = {2012}, author = {Safi, AS and Smith, WJ and Liu, Z}, title = {Rural Nevada and climate change: vulnerability, beliefs, and risk perception.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {1041-1059}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01836.x}, pmid = {22583075}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Agriculture/methods ; *Climate Change ; Culture ; Droughts ; Female ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Nevada ; *Perception ; Politics ; Public Opinion ; Public Policy ; Regression Analysis ; *Risk ; Rural Population ; }, abstract = {In this article, we present the results of a study investigating the influence of vulnerability to climate change as a function of physical vulnerability, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity on climate change risk perception. In 2008/2009, we surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers to assess their climate change-related beliefs, and risk perceptions, political orientations, and socioeconomic characteristics. Ranchers' and farmers' sensitivity to climate change was measured through estimating the proportion of their household income originating from highly scarce water-dependent agriculture to the total income. Adaptive capacity was measured as a combination of the Social Status Index and the Poverty Index. Utilizing water availability and use, and population distribution GIS databases; we assessed water resource vulnerability in Nevada by zip code as an indicator of physical vulnerability to climate change. We performed correlation tests and multiple regression analyses to examine the impact of vulnerability and its three distinct components on risk perception. We find that vulnerability is not a significant determinant of risk perception. Physical vulnerability alone also does not impact risk perception. Both sensitivity and adaptive capacity increase risk perception. While age is not a significant determinant of it, gender plays an important role in shaping risk perception. Yet, general beliefs such as political orientations and climate change-specific beliefs such as believing in the anthropogenic causes of climate change and connecting the locally observed impacts (in this case drought) to climate change are the most prominent determinants of risk perception.}, }
@article {pmid22575154, year = {2012}, author = {Gersonius, B and Nasruddin, F and Ashley, R and Jeuken, A and Pathirana, A and Zevenbergen, C}, title = {Developing the evidence base for mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {46}, number = {20}, pages = {6824-6835}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2012.03.060}, pmid = {22575154}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Decision Making ; Drainage, Sanitary ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Floods ; Models, Theoretical ; Netherlands ; *Rain ; *Waste Disposal, Fluid ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {In a context of high uncertainty about hydro-climatic variables, the development of updated methods for climate impact and adaptation assessment is as important, if not more important than the provision of improved climate change data. In this paper, we introduce a hybrid method to facilitate mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change: i.e., the Mainstreaming method. The Mainstreaming method starts with an analysis of adaptation tipping points (ATPs), which is effect-based. These are points of reference where the magnitude of climate change is such that acceptable technical, environmental, societal or economic standards may be compromised. It extends the ATP analysis to include aspects from a bottom-up approach. The extension concerns the analysis of adaptation opportunities in the stormwater system. The results from both analyses are then used in combination to identify and exploit Adaptation Mainstreaming Moments (AMMs). Use of this method will enhance the understanding of the adaptive potential of stormwater systems. We have applied the proposed hybrid method to the management of flood risk for an urban stormwater system in Dordrecht (the Netherlands). The main finding of this case study is that the application of the Mainstreaming method helps to increase the no-/low-regret character of adaptation for several reasons: it focuses the attention on the most urgent effects of climate change; it is expected to lead to potential cost reductions, since adaptation options can be integrated into infrastructure and building design at an early stage instead of being applied separately; it will lead to the development of area-specific responses, which could not have been developed on a higher scale level; it makes it possible to take account of local values and sensibilities, which contributes to increased public and political support for the adaptive strategies.}, }
@article {pmid22569843, year = {2012}, author = {Molyneux, N and da Cruz, GR and Williams, RL and Andersen, R and Turner, NC}, title = {Climate change and population growth in Timor Leste: implications for food security.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41}, number = {8}, pages = {823-840}, pmid = {22569843}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; Timor-Leste ; }, abstract = {The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5-3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.}, }
@article {pmid22569402, year = {2012}, author = {Lin, GC and Zacharek, MA}, title = {Climate change and its impact on allergic rhinitis and other allergic respiratory diseases.}, journal = {Current opinion in otolaryngology &amp; head and neck surgery}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {188-193}, doi = {10.1097/MOO.0b013e3283524b14}, pmid = {22569402}, issn = {1531-6998}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Inflammation Mediators/physiology ; Nasal Mucosa/innervation ; Nerve Fibers/physiology ; Nerve Growth Factor/physiology ; Neuropeptides/physiology ; Population Surveillance ; Respiratory Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology/*etiology/physiopathology ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Perennial/*epidemiology/*etiology/physiopathology ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*epidemiology/*etiology/physiopathology ; Secretory Rate/physiology ; Sensory Receptor Cells/physiology ; Substance P/physiology ; TRPV Cation Channels/physiology ; Vasoactive Intestinal Peptide/physiology ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To discuss current evidence of global climate change and its implications for allergic rhinitis and other allergic respiratory diseases.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Global climate change is evidenced by increasing average earth temperature, increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas levels, and elevated pollen levels. Pollutants of interest include carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), and nitrous oxide (NO2) because they can enhance the allergic response and lead to increased symptoms of allergic respiratory diseases. Heightened CO2 levels stimulate pollen production via photosynthesis and increased growth in multiple plant species investigated. Although worsened air quality appears to increase prevalence of allergic rhinitis, the effects of increased temperature are less certain. The findings of increased aeroallergen levels likely contribute to increases in presentation of allergic diseases, although more healthcare impact studies are necessary.<br><br>SUMMARY: Although recent literature indicates and strongly supports changes in temperature, pollution levels, and aeroallergen levels, more longitudinal epidemiologic surveillance of allergic diseases in relation to climate change as well as pathophysiologic studies on changing aeroallergen effects on allergic diseases are needed.}, }
@article {pmid22563772, year = {2012}, author = {McDaniels, T and Mills, T and Gregory, R and Ohlson, D}, title = {Using expert judgments to explore robust alternatives for forest management under climate change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {32}, number = {12}, pages = {2098-2112}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01822.x}, pmid = {22563772}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {British Columbia ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Forestry ; Probability ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {We develop and apply a judgment-based approach to selecting robust alternatives, which are defined here as reasonably likely to achieve objectives, over a range of uncertainties. The intent is to develop an approach that is more practical in terms of data and analysis requirements than current approaches, informed by the literature and experience with probability elicitation and judgmental forecasting. The context involves decisions about managing forest lands that have been severely affected by mountain pine beetles in British Columbia, a pest infestation that is climate-exacerbated. A forest management decision was developed as the basis for the context, objectives, and alternatives for land management actions, to frame and condition the judgments. A wide range of climate forecasts, taken to represent the 10-90% levels on cumulative distributions for future climate, were developed to condition judgments. An elicitation instrument was developed, tested, and revised to serve as the basis for eliciting probabilistic three-point distributions regarding the performance of selected alternatives, over a set of relevant objectives, in the short and long term. The elicitations were conducted in a workshop comprising 14 regional forest management specialists. We employed the concept of stochastic dominance to help identify robust alternatives. We used extensive sensitivity analysis to explore the patterns in the judgments, and also considered the preferred alternatives for each individual expert. The results show that two alternatives that are more flexible than the current policies are judged more likely to perform better than the current alternatives on average in terms of stochastic dominance. The results suggest judgmental approaches to robust decision making deserve greater attention and testing.}, }
@article {pmid22561084, year = {2012}, author = {Wu, F and Wang, X and Cai, Y and Yang, Z and Li, C}, title = {Spatiotemporal analysis of temperature-variation patterns under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {427-428}, number = {}, pages = {208-218}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.03.081}, pmid = {22561084}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Hot Temperature ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rivers ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Occurrence of temperature anomaly has greatly affected natural cycles of water resources in Lancang River basin in China, which is the upper reach of Mekong River. An integrated spatiotemporal decomposition and analysis method was proposed for the identification of temperature-variation patterns under changing climatic conditions in the basin. This method was based on the combination of S-mode empirical orthogonal function analysis, IDW interpolation, liner regression, weighted moving average and Mann Kendall methods. Results indicated that the first two modes extracted nearly 80% of spatiotemporal variations in temperature. Temperature in the whole basin followed the same variation trend through the first mode analysis. Sensitive areas were mainly located in the southwest of the basin, which occupied nearly half of the basin. The associated time series presented that the basin appeared transition from cold periods to warm periods. Temperature increased significantly over the period of 1960 to 2009 at annual and seasonal scales, particularly over 1990s. At the same time, the most significant rising occurred in winter and the least in summer. In the second mode, a west-east inverse phase pattern of temperature variations was a distinct feature in most of the basin. Temporal trend indicated that the increasing trend in the west region was slightly stronger than that in the east. This was particularly the case of edge areas almost vertical juncture with monsoons. This research is not only helpful in improving understanding of temperature response to global warming in the basin but also provides a basis for basin management.}, }
@article {pmid22558424, year = {2012}, author = {Belanger, CL}, title = {Individual to community-level faunal responses to environmental change from a marine fossil record of Early Miocene global warming.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {e36290}, pmid = {22558424}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Arcidae/growth &amp; development ; Body Size ; *Environment ; *Fossils ; *Geological Phenomena ; *Global Warming ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Modern climate change has a strong potential to shift earth systems and biological communities into novel states that have no present-day analog, leaving ecologists with no observational basis to predict the likely biotic effects. Fossil records contain long time-series of past environmental changes outside the range of modern observation, which are vital for predicting future ecological responses, and are capable of (a) providing detailed information on rates of ecological change, (b) illuminating the environmental drivers of those changes, and (c) recording the effects of environmental change on individual physiological rates. Outcrops of Early Miocene Newport Member of the Astoria Formation (Oregon) provide one such time series. This record of benthic foraminiferal and molluscan community change from continental shelf depths spans a past interval environmental change (≈ 20.3-16.7 mya) during which the region warmed 2.1-4.5°C, surface productivity and benthic organic carbon flux increased, and benthic oxygenation decreased, perhaps driven by intensified upwelling as on the modern Oregon coast. The Newport Member record shows that (a) ecological responses to natural environmental change can be abrupt, (b) productivity can be the primary driver of faunal change during global warming, (c) molluscs had a threshold response to productivity change while foraminifera changed gradually, and (d) changes in bivalve body size and growth rates parallel changes in taxonomic composition at the community level, indicating that, either directly or indirectly through some other biological parameter, the physiological tolerances of species do influence community change. Ecological studies in modern and fossil records that consider multiple ecological levels, environmental parameters, and taxonomic groups can provide critical information for predicting future ecological change and evaluating species vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid22556242, year = {2012}, author = {Alley, RB and Joughin, I}, title = {Climate change. Modeling ice-sheet flow.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {336}, number = {6081}, pages = {551-552}, doi = {10.1126/science.1220530}, pmid = {22556242}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22556241, year = {2012}, author = {Willis, JK and Church, JA}, title = {Climate change. Regional sea-level projection.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {336}, number = {6081}, pages = {550-551}, doi = {10.1126/science.1220366}, pmid = {22556241}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22554434, year = {2012}, author = {Schnoor, JL}, title = {Obama must lead on climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {46}, number = {11}, pages = {5635}, doi = {10.1021/es301670s}, pmid = {22554434}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; Environmental Pollution/economics/prevention &amp; control ; Fossil Fuels ; *Leadership ; *Politics ; Power Plants ; United States ; United States Environmental Protection Agency ; Vehicle Emissions/analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid22548728, year = {2012}, author = {Barrett, JR}, title = {Migration associated with climate change: modern face of an ancient phenomenon.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {5}, pages = {A205}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.120-a205b}, pmid = {22548728}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Emigration and Immigration ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid22548252, year = {2012}, author = {Blanchet, S and Dubut, V}, title = {'Back to the future': how archaeological remains can describe salmon adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {2311-2314}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2012.05563.x}, pmid = {22548252}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Mutation Rate ; Salmo salar/*physiology ; Trout/*physiology ; }, abstract = {A strategy for species to survive climate change will be to change adaptively their way of life. Understanding rapid adaptation to climate change is therefore a priority for current research. In this issue, Turrero et al. (2012) use an original approach to unravel life history trait responses to climate change in two fish species (Salmo trutta and S. salar). Going against the flow, the authors adopt the strategy of going back to the future by investigating the responses of fish to the warming periods that followed the Last Glacial Period (approximately 30-20,000 years BP). To do this, they analysed Salmo vertebrae from well-dated archaeological sites in northern Spain in order to uncover key life history traits, which they then compared to those of contemporary specimens. They found that, as the climate got warmer, Salmo species tended to reduce the time spent in growing areas and reached spawning areas at a younger age; this tendency began approximately 15,000 years BP and accelerated in contemporary periods. The implication is a lower age at maturity and a lower reproductive success, which they tentatively related to recent declines in population growth rate. This innovative study demonstrates how changes in life history traits are linked both to the population growth rate and to the evolutionary rate under climatic constraints, which may serve as a basis for future conservation research.}, }
@article {pmid22547815, year = {2012}, author = {Pinder, RW and Davidson, EA and Goodale, CL and Greaver, TL and Herrick, JD and Liu, L}, title = {Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {20}, pages = {7671-7675}, pmid = {22547815}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Fires ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Nitrogen Cycle ; Nitrogen Oxides/*adverse effects/chemistry ; Ozone/chemistry ; Temperature ; United States ; }, abstract = {Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at -290 to -510 Tg CO(2)e on a GTP(20) basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP(100) basis, combustion contributes just -16 to -95 Tg CO(2)e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N(2)O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N(2)O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO(2) emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22544625, year = {2013}, author = {Cooke, RM}, title = {Model uncertainty in economic impacts of climate change: Bernoulli versus Lotka Volterra dynamics.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {2-6}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.1316}, pmid = {22544625}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; *Models, Economic ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The dynamic economic behavior in most integrated assessment models linking economic growth to climate change involves a differential equation solved by Jacob Bernoulli in 1695. Using the dynamic integrated climate economy (DICE) model and freezing exogenous variables at initial values, this dynamic is shown to produce implausible projections on a 60-year time frame. If world capital started at US$1, after 60 years the world economy would be indistinguishable from one starting with 10 times the current capitalization. Such behavior points to uncertainty at the level of the fundamental dynamics, and suggests that discussions of discounting, utility, damage functions, and ethics should be conducted within a more general modeling vocabulary. Lotka Volterra dynamics is proposed as an alternative with greater prime facie plausibility. With near universality, economists assume that economic growth will go on forever. Lotka Volterra dynamics alert us to the possibility of collapse.}, }
@article {pmid22541397, year = {2012}, author = {Weber, RW}, title = {Impact of climate change on aeroallergens.}, journal = {Annals of allergy, asthma &amp; immunology : official publication of the American College of Allergy, Asthma, &amp; Immunology}, volume = {108}, number = {5}, pages = {294-299}, doi = {10.1016/j.anai.2011.11.012}, pmid = {22541397}, issn = {1534-4436}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects/immunology ; Allergens/*adverse effects/immunology ; *Climate Change ; Fungi/immunology ; Humans ; *Plant Development ; Pollen/*immunology ; Respiratory Hypersensitivity/*immunology ; }, }
@article {pmid22539997, year = {2012}, author = {Stoeckli, S and Hirschi, M and Spirig, C and Calanca, P and Rotach, MW and Samietz, J}, title = {Impact of climate change on voltinism and prospective diapause induction of a global pest insect--Cydia pomonella (L.).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {e35723}, pmid = {22539997}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Larva/physiology ; Moths/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Photoperiod ; Prospective Studies ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming will lead to earlier beginnings and prolongation of growing seasons in temperate regions and will have pronounced effects on phenology and life-history adaptation in many species. These changes were not easy to simulate for actual phenologies because of the rudimentary temporal (season) and spatial (regional) resolution of climate model projections. We investigate the effect of climate change on the regional incidence of a pest insect with nearly worldwide distribution and very high potential for adaptation to season length and temperature--the Codling Moth, Cydia pomonella. Seasonal and regional climate change signals were downscaled to the hourly temporal scale of a pest phenology model and the spatial scale of pest habitats using a stochastic weather generator operating at daily scale in combination with a re-sampling approach for simulation of hourly weather data. Under future conditions of increased temperatures (2045-2074), the present risk of below 20% for a pronounced second generation (peak larval emergence) in Switzerland will increase to 70-100%. The risk of an additional third generation will increase from presently 0-2% to 100%. We identified a significant two-week shift to earlier dates in phenological stages, such as overwintering adult flight. The relative extent (magnitude) of first generation pupae and all later stages will significantly increase. The presence of first generation pupae and later stages will be prolonged. A significant decrease in the length of overlap of first and second generation larval emergence was identified. Such shifts in phenology may induce changes in life-history traits regulating the life cycle. An accordingly life-history adaptation in photoperiodic diapause induction to shorter day-length is expected and would thereby even more increase the risk of an additional generation. With respect to Codling Moth management, the shifts in phenology and voltinism projected here will require adaptations of plant protection strategies to maintain their sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid22539705, year = {2012}, author = {Lindgren, E and Andersson, Y and Suk, JE and Sudre, B and Semenza, JC}, title = {Public health. Monitoring EU emerging infectious disease risk due to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {336}, number = {6080}, pages = {418-419}, doi = {10.1126/science.1215735}, pmid = {22539705}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*epidemiology/veterinary ; Disease Vectors ; Europe/epidemiology ; *European Union ; Humans ; Internationality ; Mandatory Reporting ; *Population Surveillance ; Risk Assessment ; }, }
@article {pmid22539694, year = {2012}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. The greenhouse is making the water-poor even poorer.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {336}, number = {6080}, pages = {405}, doi = {10.1126/science.336.6080.405}, pmid = {22539694}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22536408, year = {2012}, author = {Taylor, S and Kumar, L and Reid, N and Kriticos, DJ}, title = {Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive shrub, Lantana camara L.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {e35565}, pmid = {22536408}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; *Introduced Species ; *Lantana/physiology ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Weeds/physiology ; Software ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana) is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid22535183, year = {2012}, author = {Bernazzani, P and Bradley, BA and Opperman, JJ}, title = {Integrating climate change into habitat conservation plans under the U.S. endangered species act.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {49}, number = {6}, pages = {1103-1114}, pmid = {22535183}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; *Ecosystem ; Endangered Species/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; *Government Regulation ; United States ; }, abstract = {Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs.}, }
@article {pmid22534218, year = {2012}, author = {Lessens, DM}, title = {Responses to article on benefits of slowing global warming.}, journal = {American family physician}, volume = {85}, number = {5}, pages = {428; author reply 429, 436; discussion 436}, pmid = {22534218}, issn = {1532-0650}, mesh = {Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid22534217, year = {2012}, author = {Sealander, J}, title = {Responses to article on benefits of slowing global warming.}, journal = {American family physician}, volume = {85}, number = {5}, pages = {427; author reply 429, 436; discussion 436}, pmid = {22534217}, issn = {1532-0650}, mesh = {Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid22534216, year = {2012}, author = {Congdon, D}, title = {Responses to article on benefits of slowing global warming.}, journal = {American family physician}, volume = {85}, number = {5}, pages = {427; author reply 429, 436; discussion 436}, pmid = {22534216}, issn = {1532-0650}, mesh = {Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid22534215, year = {2012}, author = {Sulik, G}, title = {Responses to article on benefits of slowing global warming.}, journal = {American family physician}, volume = {85}, number = {5}, pages = {428; author reply 429, 436; discussion 436}, pmid = {22534215}, issn = {1532-0650}, mesh = {Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid22534214, year = {2012}, author = {Imperial, C}, title = {Responses to article on benefits of slowing global warming.}, journal = {American family physician}, volume = {85}, number = {5}, pages = {427-8; author reply 429, 436; discussion 436}, pmid = {22534214}, issn = {1532-0650}, mesh = {Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid22533690, year = {2012}, author = {Reilly, J and Melillo, J and Cai, Y and Kicklighter, D and Gurgel, A and Paltsev, S and Cronin, T and Sokolov, A and Schlosser, A}, title = {Using land to mitigate climate change: hitting the target, recognizing the trade-offs.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {46}, number = {11}, pages = {5672-5679}, doi = {10.1021/es2034729}, pmid = {22533690}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Agriculture/economics ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Biofuels/analysis ; Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change/economics ; Conservation of Energy Resources/economics ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/economics ; Internationality ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Land can be used in several ways to mitigate climate change, but especially under changing environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we explore the roles that these land-use options can play in a global mitigation strategy to stabilize Earth's average temperature within 2 °C of the preindustrial level and their impacts on agriculture. We show that an ambitious global Energy-Only climate policy that includes biofuels would likely not achieve the 2 °C target. A thought-experiment where the world ideally prices land carbon fluxes combined with biofuels (Energy+Land policy) gets the world much closer. Land could become a large net carbon sink of about 178 Pg C over the 21st century with price incentives in the Energy+Land scenario. With land carbon pricing but without biofuels (a No-Biofuel scenario) the carbon sink is nearly identical to the case with biofuels, but emissions from energy are somewhat higher, thereby results in more warming. Absent such incentives, land is either a much smaller net carbon sink (+37 Pg C - Energy-Only policy) or a net source (-21 Pg C - No-Policy). The significant trade-off with this integrated land-use approach is that prices for agricultural products rise substantially because of mitigation costs borne by the sector and higher land prices. Share of income spent on food for wealthier regions continues to fall, but for the poorest regions, higher food prices lead to a rising share of income spent on food.}, }
@article {pmid22532747, year = {2011}, author = {Grant, LK}, title = {Can we consume our way out of climate change? A call for analysis.}, journal = {The Behavior analyst}, volume = {34}, number = {2}, pages = {245-266}, pmid = {22532747}, issn = {2196-8918}, abstract = {The problem of climate change is analyzed as a manifestation of economic growth, and the steady-state economy of ecological economics is proposed as a system-wide solution. Four classes of more specific solutions are described. In the absence of analysis, cultural inertia will bias solutions in favor of green consumption as a generalized solution strategy. By itself, green consumption is a flawed solution to climate change because it perpetuates or even accelerates economic growth that is incompatible with a sustainable culture. Addressing climate change requires an integration of regulatory, energy efficiency, skill-based, and dissemination solutions. Behavioral scientists are encouraged to work with others in ecological economics and other social sciences who recognize cultural reinvention as a means of achieving sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid22527837, year = {2013}, author = {Montserrat, M and Sahún, RM and Guzmán, C}, title = {Can climate change jeopardize predator control of invasive herbivore species? A case study in avocado agro-ecosystems in Spain.}, journal = {Experimental &amp; applied acarology}, volume = {59}, number = {1-2}, pages = {27-42}, pmid = {22527837}, issn = {1572-9702}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Food Chain ; *Herbivory ; *Persea ; *Pest Control, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Spain ; Tetranychidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most important factors affecting the phenology, distribution, composition and diversity of organisms. In agricultural systems many pests and natural enemies are arthropods. As poikilotherm organisms, their body temperature is highly dependent on environmental conditions. Because higher trophic levels typically have lower tolerance to high temperatures than lower trophic levels, trends towards increasing local or regional temperatures may affect the strength of predator/prey interactions and disrupt pest control. Furthermore, increasing temperatures may create climate corridors that could facilitate the invasion and establishment of invasive species originating from warmer areas. In this study we examined the effect of environmental conditions on the dynamics of an agro-ecosystem community located in southern Spain, using field data on predator/prey dynamics and climate gathered during four consecutive years. The study system was composed of an ever-green tree species (avocado), an exotic tetranychid mite, and two native species of phytoseiid mites found in association with this new pest. We also present a climatological analysis of the temperature trend in the area of study during the last 28 years, as evidence of temperature warming occurring in the area. We found that the range of temperatures with positive per capita growth rates was much wider in prey than in predators, and that relative humidity contributed to explain the growth rate variation in predators, but not in prey. Predator and prey differences in thermal performance curves could explain why natural enemies did not respond numerically to the pest when environmental conditions were harsh.}, }
@article {pmid22526749, year = {2012}, author = {Harper, SL and Edge, VL and Cunsolo Willox, A and , }, title = {'Changing climate, changing health, changing stories' profile: using an EcoHealth approach to explore impacts of climate change on inuit health.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {89-101}, pmid = {22526749}, issn = {1612-9210}, support = {//Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canada ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Community-Based Participatory Research/*methods ; Data Collection/*methods ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Inuit ; Newfoundland and Labrador ; Population Groups ; }, abstract = {Global climate change and its impact on public health exemplify the challenge of managing complexity and uncertainty in health research. The Canadian North is currently experiencing dramatic shifts in climate, resulting in environmental changes which impact Inuit livelihoods, cultural practices, and health. For researchers investigating potential climate change impacts on Inuit health, it has become clear that comprehensive and meaningful research outcomes depend on taking a systemic and transdisciplinary approach that engages local citizens in project design, data collection, and analysis. While it is increasingly recognised that using approaches that embrace complexity is a necessity in public health, mobilizing such approaches from theory into practice can be challenging. In 2009, the Rigolet Inuit Community Government in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada partnered with a transdisciplinary team of researchers, health practitioners, and community storytelling facilitators to create the Changing Climate, Changing Health, Changing Stories project, aimed at developing a multi-media participatory, community-run methodological strategy to gather locally appropriate and meaningful data to explore climate-health relationships. The goal of this profile paper is to describe how an EcoHealth approach guided by principles of transdisciplinarity, community participation, and social equity was used to plan and implement this climate-health research project. An overview of the project, including project development, research methods, project outcomes to date, and challenges encountered, is presented. Though introduced in this one case study, the processes, methods, and lessons learned are broadly applicable to researchers and communities interested in implementing EcoHealth approaches in community-based research.}, }
@article {pmid23825236, year = {2014}, author = {Jaspal, R and Nerlich, B}, title = {When climate science became climate politics: British media representations of climate change in 1988.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {122-141}, doi = {10.1177/0963662512440219}, pmid = {23825236}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {Climate Change/*history ; History, 20th Century ; Humans ; Mass Media/*history ; *Politics ; Public Opinion/*history ; Risk Factors ; Social Perception ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Climate change has become a pressing environmental concern for scientists, social commentators and politicians. Previous social science research has explored media representations of climate change in various temporal and geographical contexts. Through the lens of Social Representations Theory, this article provides a detailed qualitative thematic analysis of media representations of climate change in the 1988 British broadsheet press, given that this year constitutes an important juncture in this transition of climate change from the domain of science to that of the socio-political sphere. The following themes are outlined: (i) "Climate change: a multi-faceted threat"; (ii) "Collectivisation of threat"; (iii) "Climate change and the attribution of blame"; and (iv) "Speculative solutions to a complex socio-environmental problem." The article provides detailed empirical insights into the "starting-point" for present-day disputes concerning climate change and lays the theoretical foundations for tracking the continuities and discontinuities characterising social representations of climate change in the future.}, }
@article {pmid23961171, year = {2012}, author = {Williams, JB and Shobrak, M and Wilms, TM and Arif, IA and Khan, HA}, title = {Climate change and animals in Saudi Arabia.}, journal = {Saudi journal of biological sciences}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {121-130}, pmid = {23961171}, issn = {1319-562X}, abstract = {Global warming is occurring at an alarming rate and predictions are that air temperature (T a) will continue to increase during this century. Increases in T a as a result of unabated production of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere pose a threat to the distribution and abundance of wildlife populations worldwide. Although all the animals worldwide will likely be affected by global warming, diurnal animals in the deserts will be particularly threatened in the future because T as are already high, and animals have limited access to water. It is expected that Saudi Arabia will experience a 3-5 °C in T a over the next century. For predicting the consequences of global warming for animals, it is important to understand how individual species will respond to higher air temperatures. We think that populations will not have sufficient time to make evolutionary adjustments to higher T a, and therefore they will be forced to alter their distribution patterns, or make phenotypic adjustments in their ability to cope with high T a. This report examines how increases in T a might affect body temperature (T b) in the animals of arid regions. We chose three taxonomic groups, mammals, birds, and reptiles (Arabian oryx, Arabian spiny-tailed lizard, vultures, and hoopoe larks) from Saudi Arabia, an area in which T a often reaches 45 °C during midday in summer. When T a exceeds T b, animals must resort to behavioral and physiological methods to control their T b; failure to do so results in death. The observations of this study show that in many cases T b is already close to the upper lethal limit of around 47° C in these species and therefore allowing their T b to increase as T a increases are not an option. We conclude that global warming will have a detrimental impact on a wide range of desert animals, but in reality we know little about the ability of most animals to cope with change in T a. The data presented should serve as base-line information on T b of animals in the Kingdom for future scientists in Saudi Arabia as they explore the impact of global warming on animal species.}, }
@article {pmid24014154, year = {2012}, author = {Diffenbaugh, NS and Giorgi, F}, title = {Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.}, journal = {Climatic change}, volume = {114}, number = {3-4}, pages = {813-822}, pmid = {24014154}, issn = {0165-0009}, support = {R01 AI090159/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21[st] century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20[th]-century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21[st]-century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.}, }
@article {pmid23878979, year = {2012}, author = {Pugliese, M and Cogliati, E and Gullino, ML and Garibaldi, A}, title = {Effect of climate change on Alternaria leaf spot of rocket salad and black spot of basil under controlled environment.}, journal = {Communications in agricultural and applied biological sciences}, volume = {77}, number = {3}, pages = {241-244}, pmid = {23878979}, issn = {1379-1176}, mesh = {*Alternaria ; Brassica/*microbiology ; *Climate Change ; Ocimum basilicum/*microbiology ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; }, abstract = {Plant responses to elevated CO2 and temperature have been much studied in recent years, but effects of climate change on pathological responses are still largely unknown. The pathosystems rocket (Eruca vesicaria subsp. sativa)--Alternaria leaf spot (Alternaria japonica) and basil (Ocimum basilicum)--black spot (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides) were chosen as models to assess the potential impact of increased CO2 and temperature on disease incidence and severity under controlled environment. Potted plants were grown in phytotrons under 4 different simulated climatic conditions: (1) standard temperature (ranging from 18 degrees to 22 degrees C) and standard CO2 concentration (400 ppm); (2) standard temperature and elevated CO2 concentration (800 ppm); (3) elevated temperature (ranging from 22 degrees to 26 degrees C, 4 degrees C higher than standard) and standard CO2 concentration; (4) elevated temperature and CO2 concentration. Each plant was inoculated with a spore suspension containing 1 x 10(5) cfu/ml of the pathogen. Disease incidence and severity were assessed 14 days after inoculation. Increasing CO2 to 800 ppm showed a clear increment in the percentage of Alternaria leaf spot on rocket leaves compared to standard conditions. Basil plants grown at 800 ppm of CO2 showed increased black spot symptoms compared to 400 ppm. Disease incidence and severity were always influenced by the combination of rising CO2 and increased temperature, compared to standard conditions (400 ppm of CO2 - 22 degrees C). Considering the rising concentrations of CO2 and global temperature, we can assume that this could increase the severity of Alternaria japonica on rocket and Colletotrichum gloeosporioides on basil.}, }
@article {pmid24307747, year = {2011}, author = {Diffenbaugh, NS and Ashfaq, M and Scherer, M}, title = {Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States.}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research}, volume = {116}, number = {D24}, pages = {}, pmid = {24307747}, issn = {0148-0227}, support = {R01 AI090159/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21[st] century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21[st] century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater variability in the baseline climate dynamics, there can be greater variability in the response to elevated greenhouse forcing, decreasing the robustness of the transient warming signal.}, }
@article {pmid23856370, year = {2011}, author = {Vineis, P and Chan, Q and Khan, A}, title = {Climate change impacts on water salinity and health.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and global health}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {5-10}, pmid = {23856370}, issn = {2210-6014}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Status ; Humans ; *Salinity ; *Water Quality ; }, abstract = {It is estimated that 884 million people do not have access to clean drinking water in the world. Increasing salinity of natural drinking water sources has been reported as one of the many problems that affect low-income countries, but one which has not been fully explored. This problem is exacerbated by rising sea-levels, owing to climate change, and other contributing factors, like changes in fresh water flow from rivers and increased shrimp farming along the coastal areas. In some countries, desalination plants are used to partly remove salt and other minerals from water sources, but this is unlikely to be a sustainable option for low-income countries affected by high salinity. Using the example of Bangladesh as a model country, the following research indicates that the problem of salinity can have serious implications with regard to rising rates of hypertension and other public health problems among large sectors of the worldwide population.}, }
@article {pmid23776796, year = {2011}, author = {Pandve, HT}, title = {Global climate change and issues related to women's health: A generalised debate.}, journal = {International journal of applied &amp; basic medical research}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {128-129}, pmid = {23776796}, issn = {2229-516X}, }
@article {pmid23268459, year = {2011}, author = {D'Amato, G and Rottem, M and Dahl, R and Blaiss, M and Ridolo, E and Cecchi, L and Rosario, N and Motala, C and Ansotegui, I and Annesi-Maesano, I and , }, title = {Climate change, migration, and allergic respiratory diseases: an update for the allergist.}, journal = {The World Allergy Organization journal}, volume = {4}, number = {7}, pages = {120-125}, pmid = {23268459}, issn = {1939-4551}, abstract = {Local climate changes can impact on a number of factors, including air pollution, that have been shown to influence both the development and attacks of allergic respiratory diseases, and thus, they represent an important consideration for the allergist. Migration involves exposure to a new set of pollutants and allergens as well as changes in housing conditions, diet, and accessibility to medical services, all of which are likely to affect migrants' health. This review provides an update on climate change, migration, and allergy and discusses factors for consideration when making recommendations for local allergy service provision and for assessing an individual patient's environmental exposures.}, }
@article {pmid24159451, year = {2011}, author = {Chu, C and Do, Y and Kim, Y and Saito, Y and Lee, SD and Park, H and Lee, JK}, title = {Mathematical Modeling of Vibrio vulnificus Infection in Korea and the Influence of Global Warming.}, journal = {Osong public health and research perspectives}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {51-58}, pmid = {24159451}, issn = {2210-9099}, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To investigate the possible link between Vibrio vulnificus population size in seawater and water temperature.<br><br>METHODS: We collected incidence and water temperature data in coastal regions of Korea and constructed a mathematical model that consisted of three classes; susceptible fish, infected fish available to humans, and infected humans.<br><br>RESULTS: We developed a mathematical model to connect V. vulnificus incidence with water temperature using estimated bacterial population sizes and actual coastal water temperatures.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Increased V. vulnificus population sizes in marine environments may increase the risk of infection in people who eat at coastal restaurants in Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the near-future number of infected patients using our model, which will help to establish a public-health policy to reduce the disease burden.}, }
@article {pmid22929718, year = {2011}, author = {Joshi, HD and Dhimal, B and Dhimal, M and Bhusal, CL}, title = {Public health impacts of climate change in Nepal.}, journal = {Journal of Nepal Health Research Council}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {71-75}, pmid = {22929718}, issn = {1999-6217}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Nepal ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a global issue in this century which has challenged the survival of living creatures affecting the life supporting systems of the earth: atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere. Scientists have reached in a consensus that climate change is happening. The anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases is responsible for global warming and therefore climate change. Climate change may directly or indirectly affect human health through a range of pathways related to temperature and precipitation. The aim of this article is to share knowledge on how climate change can affect public health in Nepal based on scientific evidence from global studies and experience gained locally. In this review attempt has been made to critically analyze the scientific studies as well as policy documents of Nepalese Government and shed light on public health impact of climate change in the context of Nepal. Detailed scientific study is recommended to discern impact of climate change on public health problems in Nepal.}, }
@article {pmid23022814, year = {2011}, author = {Shuman, EK}, title = {Global climate change and infectious diseases.}, journal = {The international journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {11-19}, pmid = {23022814}, issn = {2008-6520}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*etiology/transmission ; Disease Vectors ; Geography, Medical ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth's atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.}, }
@article {pmid23022813, year = {2011}, author = {Roberts, I and Stott, R}, title = {Doctors and climate change.}, journal = {The international journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {8-10}, pmid = {23022813}, issn = {2008-6520}, mesh = {Biofuels/economics ; *Environmental Policy ; Food/economics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Motor Activity ; Motor Vehicles ; *Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid23022812, year = {2011}, author = {Sarkar, A}, title = {Climate change: adverse health impacts and roles of health professionals.}, journal = {The international journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {4-7}, pmid = {23022812}, issn = {2008-6520}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Cyclonic Storms ; Disease Vectors ; Extreme Heat/adverse effects ; Fires ; Floods ; Humans ; Humidity/adverse effects ; *Public Health ; Water Microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid22772962, year = {2011}, author = {}, title = {Intersection 1: rights and responsibilities amid climate change and environmental degradation.}, journal = {Health and human rights}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {E4-6}, pmid = {22772962}, issn = {2150-4113}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Environmental Pollution ; Food Supply ; Health Policy ; Health Status Disparities ; *Human Rights ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid22702176, year = {2011}, author = {Pugliese, M and Gullino, ML and Garibaldi, A}, title = {Effect of climate change on infection of grapevine by downy and powdery mildew under controlled environment.}, journal = {Communications in agricultural and applied biological sciences}, volume = {76}, number = {4}, pages = {579-582}, pmid = {22702176}, issn = {1379-1176}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; Chlorophyll/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Environment, Controlled ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; Temperature ; Vitis/*microbiology ; }, abstract = {Plant responses to elevated CO2 and temperature have been much studied in recent years, but effects of climate change on pathological responses are largerly unknown. The pathosystems grapevine (Vitis vinifera) - downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) and powdery mildew (Erysiphe necatrix) were chosen as models to assess the potential impact of increased CO2 and temperature on disease incidence and severity under controlled environment. Grapevine potted plants were grown in phytotrons under 4 different simulated climatic conditions: (1) standard temperature (ranging from 18 degrees to 22 degrees C) and standard CO2 concentration (450 ppm); (2) standard temperature and elevated CO2 concentration (800 ppm); (3) elevated temperature (ranging from 22 degrees to 26 degrees C, 4 degrees C higher than standard) and standard CO2 concentration; (4) elevated temperature and CO2 concentration. Each plant was inoculated with a spore suspension containing 5x10(5) cfu/ml. Disease index and physiological parameters (chlorophyll content, fluorescence, assimilation rate) were assessed. Results showed an increase of the chlorophyll content with higher temperatures and CO2 concentration, to which consequently corresponded an higher fluorescence index. Disease incidence of downy mildew increased when both CO2 and temperatures were higher, while an increase in CO2 did not influenced powdery mildew incidence, probably due to the increased photosynthetic activity of plants under such conditions. Considering that the rising concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases will lead to an increase in global temperature and longer seasons, we can assume that this will allow more time for pathogens evolution and could increase pathogen survival, indirectly affecting downy and powdery mildews of grapevine.}, }
@article {pmid24159433, year = {2010}, author = {Kurane, I}, title = {The effect of global warming on infectious diseases.}, journal = {Osong public health and research perspectives}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {4-9}, pmid = {24159433}, issn = {2210-9099}, abstract = {Global warming has various effects on human health. The main indirect effects are on infectious diseases. Although the effects on infectious diseases will be detected worldwide, the degree and types of the effect are different, depending on the location of the respective countries and socioeconomical situations. Among infectious diseases, water- and foodborne infectious diseases and vector-borne infectious diseases are two main categories that are forecasted to be most affected. The effect on vector-borne infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever is mainly because of the expansion of the infested areas of vector mosquitoes and increase in the number and feeding activity of infected mosquitoes. There will be increase in the number of cases with water- and foodborne diarrhoeal diseases. Even with the strongest mitigation procedures, global warming cannot be avoided for decades. Therefore, implementation of adaptation measures to the effect of global warming is the most practical action we can take. It is generally accepted that the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases have not been apparent at this point yet in East Asia. However, these impacts will appear in one form or another if global warming continues to progress in future. Further research on the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases and on future prospects should be conducted.}, }
@article {pmid22546463, year = {2010}, author = {Fielding, DJ and Defoliart, LS}, title = {Embryonic developmental rates of northern grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae): implications for climate change and habitat management.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {39}, number = {5}, pages = {1643-1651}, doi = {10.1603/EN09356}, pmid = {22546463}, issn = {1938-2936}, mesh = {Alaska ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Grasshoppers/*embryology/physiology ; Idaho ; Models, Biological ; Ovum/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Soil ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Accurate models of temperature-dependent embryonic developmental rates are important to assess the effects of a changing climate on insect life cycles and to suggest methods of population management by habitat manipulation. Embryonic development determines the life cycle of many species of grasshoppers, which, in cold climates, spend two winters in the egg stage. Increasing temperatures associated with climate change in the subarctic could potentiate a switch to a univoltine life cycle. However, egg hatch could be delayed by maintaining a closed vegetative canopy, which would lower soil temperatures by shading the soil surface. Prediapause and postdiapause embryonic developmental rates were measured in the laboratory over a wide range of temperatures for Melanoplus borealis Fieber and Melanoplus sanguinipes F. (Orthoptera: Acrididae) A model was fit to the data and used to predict dates of egg hatch in the spring and prediapause development in the fall under different temperature regimens. Actual soil temperatures were recorded at several locations over 5 yr. To simulate climate warming, 2, 3, or 4°C was added to each hourly recorded temperature. Results suggest that a 2, 3, or 4°C increase in soil temperatures will result in eggs hatching ≈ 3, 5, or 7 d earlier, respectively. An increase of 3°C would be required to advance prediapause development enough to allow for a portion of the population to be univoltine in warmer years. To simulate shading, 2 and 4°C were subtracted from observed temperatures. A 4°C decrease in temperatures could potentially delay hatch by 8 d.}, }
@article {pmid22532715, year = {2010}, author = {Chance, P and Heward, WL}, title = {Climate change: meeting the challenge.}, journal = {The Behavior analyst}, volume = {33}, number = {2}, pages = {197-206}, pmid = {22532715}, issn = {2196-8918}, }
@article {pmid22532710, year = {2010}, author = {Malott, RW}, title = {I'll Save the World from Global Warming-Tomorrow: Using Procrastination Management to Combat Global Warming.}, journal = {The Behavior analyst}, volume = {33}, number = {2}, pages = {179-180}, doi = {10.1007/BF03392214}, pmid = {22532710}, issn = {2196-8918}, }
@article {pmid22532707, year = {2010}, author = {Thompson, LG}, title = {Climate change: the evidence and our options.}, journal = {The Behavior analyst}, volume = {33}, number = {2}, pages = {153-170}, pmid = {22532707}, issn = {2196-8918}, abstract = {Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low to middle latitudes, provides some of the strongest evidence to date that a large-scale, pervasive, and, in some cases, rapid change in Earth's climate system is underway. This paper highlights observations of 20th and 21st century glacier shrinkage in the Andes, the Himalayas, and on Mount Kilimanjaro. Ice cores retrieved from shrinking glaciers around the world confirm their continuous existence for periods ranging from hundreds of years to multiple millennia, suggesting that climatological conditions that dominate those regions today are different from those under which these ice fields originally accumulated and have been sustained. The current warming is therefore unusual when viewed from the millennial perspective provided by multiple lines of proxy evidence and the 160-year record of direct temperature measurements. Despite all this evidence, plus the well-documented continual increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, societies have taken little action to address this global-scale problem. Hence, the rate of global carbon dioxide emissions continues to accelerate. As a result of our inaction, we have three options: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering.}, }
@article {pmid23022803, year = {2010}, author = {Murugan, K}, title = {National Conference on Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity of Insects and Environment (CBI' 2010).}, journal = {The international journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {152-154}, pmid = {23022803}, issn = {2008-6520}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; India ; Insecta ; }, }
@article {pmid23022792, year = {2010}, author = {Yadollahie, M}, title = {Global warming: promises in vain.}, journal = {The international journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {92-93}, pmid = {23022792}, issn = {2008-6520}, mesh = {Congresses as Topic ; Global Health ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid23745068, year = {2010}, author = {Lapaige, V and Essiembre, H}, title = {Innoversity in knowledge-for-action and adaptation to climate change: the first steps of an 'evidence-based climatic health' transfrontier training program.}, journal = {Advances in medical education and practice}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {89-105}, pmid = {23745068}, issn = {1179-7258}, abstract = {It has become increasingly clear to the international scientific community that climate change is real and has important consequences for human health. To meet these new challenges, the World Health Organization recommends reinforcing the adaptive capacity of health systems. One of the possible avenues in this respect is to promote awareness and knowledge translation in climatic health, at both the local and global scales. Within such perspective, two major themes have emerged in the field of public health research: 1) the development of advanced training adapted to 'global environment' change and to the specific needs of various groups of actors (doctors, nurses, public health practitioners, health care managers, public service managers, local communities, etc) and 2) the development of strategies for implementing research results and applying various types of evidence to the management of public health issues affected by climate change. Progress on these two fronts will depend on maximum innovation in transdisciplinary and transsectoral collaborations. The general purpose of this article is to present the program of a new research and learning chair designed for this double set of developmental objectives - a chair that emphasizes 'innoversity' (the dynamic relationship between innovation and diversity) and 'transfrontier ecolearning for adaptive actions'. The Écoapprentissages, santé mentale et climat collaborative research chair (University of Montreal and Quebec National Public Health Institute) based in Montreal is a center for 'transdisciplinary research' on the transfrontier knowledge-for-action that can aid adaptation of the public health sector, the public mental health sector, and the public service sector to climate change, as well as a center for complex collaborations on evidence-based climatic health 'training'. This program-focused article comprises two main sections. The first section presents the 'general' and 'specific contexts' in which the chair emerged. The 'general context' pertains to the health-related challenge of finding ways to integrate, transfer, and implement knowledge, a particularly pointed challenge in Canada. The 'specific context' refers to the emerging research field of adaptation of public health to climate change. In the second section, the characteristics of the research chair are more extensively detailed (the vision of 'innoversity' and ' transfrontier knowledge-for-action,' the approach of shared responsibility and complex collaboration, objectives, and major axes of research). We conclude with a call for complex collaboration toward knowledge-for-action in public health services/mental health services/public services' adaptation to climate change: this call is aimed at individual and institutional actors in the North and South/West and East concerned by these issues.}, }
@article {pmid23100787, year = {2009}, author = {Venkateswarlu, B and Grover, M}, title = {Can microbes help crops cope with climate change?.}, journal = {Indian journal of microbiology}, volume = {49}, number = {3}, pages = {297-298}, pmid = {23100787}, issn = {0046-8991}, }
@article {pmid22748090, year = {2009}, author = {Xu, J and Grumbine, RE and Shrestha, A and Eriksson, M and Yang, X and Wang, Y and Wilkes, A}, title = {The melting Himalayas: cascading effects of climate change on water, biodiversity, and livelihoods.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {520-530}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01237.x}, pmid = {22748090}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Asia ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/trends ; Food Chain ; *Geography ; Humans ; *Ice Cover ; Research ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; Water Supply/analysis ; }, abstract = {The Greater Himalayas hold the largest mass of ice outside polar regions and are the source of the 10 largest rivers in Asia. Rapid reduction in the volume of Himalayan glaciers due to climate change is occurring. The cascading effects of rising temperatures and loss of ice and snow in the region are affecting, for example, water availability (amounts, seasonality), biodiversity (endemic species, predator-prey relations), ecosystem boundary shifts (tree-line movements, high-elevation ecosystem changes), and global feedbacks (monsoonal shifts, loss of soil carbon). Climate change will also have environmental and social impacts that will likely increase uncertainty in water supplies and agricultural production for human populations across Asia. A common understanding of climate change needs to be developed through regional and local-scale research so that mitigation and adaptation strategies can be identified and implemented. The challenges brought about by climate change in the Greater Himalayas can only be addressed through increased regional collaboration in scientific research and policy making.}, }
@article {pmid23765717, year = {2009}, author = {Paerl, HW and Huisman, J}, title = {Climate change: a catalyst for global expansion of harmful cyanobacterial blooms.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology reports}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {27-37}, doi = {10.1111/j.1758-2229.2008.00004.x}, pmid = {23765717}, issn = {1758-2229}, abstract = {Cyanobacteria are the Earth's oldest known oxygen-evolving photosynthetic microorganisms, and they have had major impacts on shaping our current atmosphere and biosphere. Their long evolutionary history has enabled cyanobacteria to develop survival strategies and persist as important primary producers during numerous geochemical and climatic changes that have taken place on Earth during the past 3.5 billion years. Today, some cyanobacterial species form massive surface growths or 'blooms' that produce toxins, cause oxygen depletion and alter food webs, posing a major threat to drinking and irrigation water supplies, fishing and recreational use of surface waters worldwide. These harmful cyanobacteria can take advantage of anthropogenically induced nutrient over-enrichment (eutrophication), and hydrologic modifications (water withdrawal, reservoir construction). Here, we review recent studies revealing that regional and global climatic change may benefit various species of harmful cyanobacteria by increasing their growth rates, dominance, persistence, geographic distributions and activity. Future climatic change scenarios predict rising temperatures, enhanced vertical stratification of aquatic ecosystems, and alterations in seasonal and interannual weather patterns (including droughts, storms, floods); these changes all favour harmful cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic waters. Therefore, current mitigation and water management strategies, which are largely based on nutrient input and hydrologic controls, must also accommodate the environmental effects of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid23199358, year = {2009}, author = {Jameton, A}, title = {Medicine's Role in Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change.}, journal = {The virtual mentor : VM}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {465-469}, doi = {10.1001/virtualmentor.2009.11.6.msoc1-0906}, pmid = {23199358}, issn = {1937-7010}, }
@article {pmid23199353, year = {2009}, author = {Ebi, KL}, title = {Climate change and human health 101.}, journal = {The virtual mentor : VM}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {443-447}, doi = {10.1001/virtualmentor.2009.11.6.medu1-0906}, pmid = {23199353}, issn = {1937-7010}, }
@article {pmid24234957, year = {1996}, author = {Hegerl, GC and Cubasch, U}, title = {Greenhouse gas induced climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {99-102}, doi = {10.1007/BF02985499}, pmid = {24234957}, issn = {0944-1344}, abstract = {Simulations using global coupled climate models predict a climate change due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. Both are associated with the burning of fossil fuels. There has been considerable debate if this postulated human influence is already evident. This paper gives an overview on some recent material on this question. One particular study using optimal fingerprints (Hegerl et al., 1996) is explained in more detail. In this study, an optimal fingerprint analysis is applied to temperature trend patterns over several decades. The results show the probability being less than 5% that the most recently observed 30 year trend is due to naturally occurring climate fluctuations. This result suggests that the present warming is caused by some external influence on climate, e.g. by the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. More work is needed to address the uncertainties in the magnitude of naturally occurring climate fluctuations. Also, other external influences on climate need to be investigated to uniquely attribute the present climate change to the human influence.}, }
@article {pmid24234891, year = {1996}, author = {}, title = {Intergovernmental panel on climate change : IPCC second assessment synthesis of scientific-technical information relevant to interpreting article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1995.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {52-57}, doi = {10.1007/BF02986817}, pmid = {24234891}, issn = {0944-1344}, }
@article {pmid22676115, year = {1995}, author = {Newman, A}, title = {House cuts climate change research.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {356A}, doi = {10.1021/es00008a739}, pmid = {22676115}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid22655876, year = {1995}, author = {}, title = {Global warming beliefs.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {29}, number = {5}, pages = {201A}, doi = {10.1021/es00005a714}, pmid = {22655876}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid24197941, year = {1995}, author = {Seki, M and Christ, R}, title = {Selected international efforts to address climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {38}, number = {2-3}, pages = {141-153}, doi = {10.1007/BF00546759}, pmid = {24197941}, issn = {0167-6369}, abstract = {Over the past two decades, concern about human-induced climate change has become an increasingly important item on the environmental and political agenda. The signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the adoption of Agenda 21 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 provided international organizations and the nations of the world with a new focus for climate-related activities. Although there remains considerable scientific uncertainty about the extent, magnitude, and rate of climate change and the impacts of such change, actions to address climate change have been initiated both internationally and nationally. Major international activities include the World Climate Programme, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the United Nations Environment Programme.}, }
@article {pmid24197940, year = {1995}, author = {Callander, B}, title = {Scientific aspects of the framework convention on climate change and national greenhouse gas inventories.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {38}, number = {2-3}, pages = {129-140}, doi = {10.1007/BF00546758}, pmid = {24197940}, issn = {0167-6369}, abstract = {Though the principles of the Earth's greenhouse effect have been known for well over a century, it is only recently that advances in climate research have indicated that significant and possibly costly climate change, due to growing emissions of greenhouse gases and their precursors by human activity, is a real possibility. Current estimates of the global human-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are presented, though many sources remain poorly known or understood. The compilation of national greenhouse inventories as required by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is likely in the longer term to help improve such global estimates, as long as comparable methodologies are used. The development of the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories is described, emphasizing the strategies employed to gain wide international participation.}, }
@article {pmid24311123, year = {1994}, author = {Sarmiento, JL and Bender, M}, title = {Carbon biogeochemistry and climate change.}, journal = {Photosynthesis research}, volume = {39}, number = {3}, pages = {209-234}, pmid = {24311123}, issn = {0166-8595}, abstract = {The rapid increase of atmospheric CO2 resulting from anthropogenic activites has stimulated a great deal of interest in the carbon cycle. Important decisions need to be made about future tolerable levels of atmospheric CO2 content, as well as the land and fossil fuel use strategies that will permit us to achieve these goals. The vast amount of new data on atmospheric CO2 content and ancillary properties that has become available during the last decade, and the development of models to interpret these data, have led to significant advances in our capacity to deal with such issues. However, a major continuing source of uncertainty is the role of photosynthesis in providing a sink for anthropogenic emissions. It is thus appropriate that a new evaluation of the status of our understanding of this issue should be made at this time.The aim of this paper is to provide a setting for the papers that follow by giving an overview of the role of carbon dioxide in climate, the biogeochemical processes that control its distribution, and the evolution of carbon dioxide through time from the origin of the earth to the present. We begin with a discussion of relevant processes. We then proceed to a more detailed discussion of the time periods that are best documented: the late Pleistocene (during which time large continental ice sheets waxed and waned) and the modern era of anthropogenic impact on the carbon cycle.}, }
@article {pmid22523579, year = {2012}, author = {Kampichler, C and van Turnhout, CA and Devictor, V and van der Jeugd, HP}, title = {Large-scale changes in community composition: determining land use and climate change signals.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {e35272}, pmid = {22523579}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Humans ; Netherlands ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction ; *Residence Characteristics ; }, abstract = {Human land use and climate change are regarded as the main driving forces of present-day and future species extinction. They may potentially lead to a profound reorganisation of the composition and structure of natural communities throughout the world. However, studies that explicitly investigate both forms of impact--land use and climate change--are uncommon. Here, we quantify community change of Dutch breeding bird communities over the past 25 years using time lag analysis. We evaluate the chronological sequence of the community temperature index (CTI) which reflects community response to temperature increase (increasing CTI indicates an increase in relative abundance of more southerly species), and the temporal trend of the community specialisation index (CSI) which reflects community response to land use change (declining CSI indicates an increase of generalist species). We show that the breeding bird fauna underwent distinct directional change accompanied by significant changes both in CTI and CSI which suggests a causal connection between climate and land use change and bird community change. The assemblages of particular breeding habitats neither changed at the same speed and nor were they equally affected by climate versus land use changes. In the rapidly changing farmland community, CTI and CSI both declined slightly. In contrast, CTI increased in the more slowly changing forest and heath communities, while CSI remained stable. Coastal assemblages experienced both an increase in CTI and a decline in CSI. Wetland birds experienced the fastest community change of all breeding habitat assemblages but neither CTI nor CSI showed a significant trend. Overall, our results suggest that the interaction between climate and land use changes differs between habitats, and that comparing trends in CSI and CTI may be useful in tracking the impact of each determinant.}, }
@article {pmid22519693, year = {2012}, author = {Roeser, S}, title = {Risk communication, public engagement, and climate change: a role for emotions.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {1033-1040}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01812.x}, pmid = {22519693}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Behavior ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; Decision Making/ethics ; *Emotions ; Ethics ; Humans ; Life Style ; Models, Theoretical ; Morals ; Public Opinion ; Public Policy ; *Risk ; }, abstract = {This article discusses the potential role that emotions might play in enticing a lifestyle that diminishes climate change. Climate change is an important challenge for society. There is a growing consensus that climate change is due to our behavior, but few people are willing to significantly adapt their lifestyle. Empirical studies show that people lack a sense of urgency: they experience climate change as a problem that affects people in distant places and in a far future. Several scholars have claimed that emotions might be a necessary tool in communication about climate change. This article sketches a theoretical framework that supports this hypothesis, drawing on insights from the ethics of risk and the philosophy of emotions. It has been shown by various scholars that emotions are important determinants in risk perception. However, emotions are generally considered to be irrational states and are hence excluded from communication and political decision making about risky technologies and climate change, or they are used instrumentally to create support for a position. However, the literature on the ethics of risk shows that the dominant, technocratic approach to risk misses the normative-ethical dimension that is inherent to decisions about acceptable risk. Emotion research shows that emotions are necessary for practical and moral decision making. These insights can be applied to communication about climate change. Emotions are necessary for understanding the moral impact of the risks of climate change, and they also paradigmatically provide for motivation. Emotions might be the missing link in effective communication about climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22518924, year = {2011}, author = {Boon, H and Brown, L and Clark, B and Pagliano, P and Tsey, K and Usher, K}, title = {Schools, climate change and health promotion: a vital alliance.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {22 Spec No}, number = {}, pages = {S68-71}, doi = {10.1071/he11468}, pmid = {22518924}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; *Disabled Children ; Health Promotion/methods/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Interinstitutional Relations ; Schools/*organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {Through an ongoing project, we have been reviewing the literature addressing school planning for climate change related ecological disruptions and disasters, particularly for the special needs of children with disabilities. We have also examined related state education department policies from across Australia. Our preliminary results suggest scant attention has been paid either by researchers or educational policy makers to the needs of children with disabilities and their caregivers in response to climate change induced disaster scenarios. Here, we advocate for better preparedness among institutions serving children with disabilities to support their health in the context of climate change, and describe how health promotion principles can be brought to bear on this issue.}, }
@article {pmid22518923, year = {2011}, author = {Patrick, R and Capetola, T}, title = {It's here! Are we ready? Five case studies of health promotion practices that address climate change from within Victorian health care settings.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {22 Spec No}, number = {}, pages = {S61-7}, doi = {10.1071/he11461}, pmid = {22518923}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Community Participation ; Female ; Food Supply ; Health Personnel/organization &amp; administration ; Health Policy ; Health Promotion/methods/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Mental Health ; Middle Aged ; Organizational Case Studies ; Primary Health Care/organization &amp; administration ; Qualitative Research ; Victoria ; Vulnerable Populations ; Women's Health Services/organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {ISSUE ADDRESSED: Climate changes and environmental degradation caused by anthropogenic activities are having an irrefutable impact on human health. The critical role played by health promotion in addressing environmental challenges has a history in seminal charters--such as the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion--that explicitly link human well-being with the natural environment. The lack of documented practice in this field prompted an investigation of health promotion practice that addresses climate change issues within health care settings.<br><br>METHODS: This qualitative study involved five case studies of Victorian health care agencies that explicitly identified climate change as a priority. Individual and group interviews with ten health promotion funded practitioners as well as document analysis techniques were used to explore diverse practices across these rural, regional and urban health care agencies.<br><br>RESULTS: Health promotion practice in these agencies was oriented toward: active and sustainable transport; healthy and sustainable food supply; mental health and community resilience; engaging vulnerable population groups such as women; and organisational development.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Despite differences in approach, target population and context, the core finding was that health promotion strategies, competencies and frameworks were transferable to action on climate change in these health care settings.}, }
@article {pmid22518922, year = {2011}, author = {van Beurden, EK and Kia, AM and Hughes, D and Fuller, JD and Dietrich, U and Howton, K and Kavooru, S}, title = {Networked resilience in rural Australia--a role for health promotion in regional responses to climate change.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {22 Spec No}, number = {}, pages = {S54-60}, doi = {10.1071/he11454}, pmid = {22518922}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Community Participation ; Cooperative Behavior ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; Interinstitutional Relations ; *Rural Population ; }, abstract = {ISSUES ADDRESSED: This paper provides a model for how health promotion teams might establish and support regional collaborations of organisations in a broad response to climate change that enables emergence of multiple strategies tailored to regional needs.<br><br>METHODS: Complex Adaptive Systems Theory (CAS) and Organisational Learning informed action to foster a Climate Change Collaboration that engaged in strategies to improve transport options, food security and energy sustainability. Social Network Analysis was used to evaluate the degree to which member organisations became networked, the evolution of key network qualities and the way the organisations were affiliated via their participation in emergent strategies.<br><br>RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2009 a highly connected network of organisations emerged and rapidly evolved to collaborate for action on climate change. There were significant improvements in network density, centralisation, clustering and reciprocity. Member organisations collaborated on a broad range of strategies.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Reducing regional impact of climate change is complex. It requires long-term collaboration between organisations that may not usually work together. Sustain Northern Rivers provides a successful model for achieving such collaboration.}, }
@article {pmid22518921, year = {2011}, author = {Brown, HL and Proust, K and Spickett, J and Capon, A}, title = {The potential role of health impact assessment in tackling the complexity of climate change adaptation for health.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {22 Spec No}, number = {}, pages = {S48-53}, doi = {10.1071/he11448}, pmid = {22518921}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Health Policy ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Managing an issue of the magnitude, scope and complexity of climate change is a daunting prospect, yet one which nations around the world must face. Climate change is an issue without boundaries--impacts will cut across administrative and geographical borders and be felt by every sector of society. Responses to climate change will need to employ system approaches that take into account the relationships that cross organisational and sectoral boundaries. Solutions designed in isolation from these interdependencies will be unlikely to succeed, squandering opportunities for long-term effective adaptation. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a structural approach to identify, evaluate and manage health impacts of climate change that is inclusive of a wide range of stakeholders. Climate change will affect decision-making across every government level and sector and the health implications of these decisions can also be addressed with HIA. Given the nature of the issue, HIA of climate change will identify a large number of variables that influence the type and extent of health impacts and the management of these impacts. In order to implement the most effective adaptation measures, it is critica that an understanding of the interactions between these variables is developed. The outcome of HIA of climate change can therefore be strengthened by the introduction of system dynamics tools, such as causal loop diagrams, that are designed to examine interactions between variables and the resulting behaviour of complex systems.}, }
@article {pmid22518920, year = {2011}, author = {Ritchie, J}, title = {Wrestling with 'doubt-sayers': a first step in leading community-wide climate change action for better health.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {22 Spec No}, number = {}, pages = {S46-7}, doi = {10.1071/he11446}, pmid = {22518920}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Community Participation ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Health Policy ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; }, abstract = {ISSUE ADDRESSED: Although the evidence base for climate change is indisputable and the potential human health impact is extremely concerning, to date public health professionals are playing little part in influencing community change to accept and act on the science.<br><br>METHOD: In reviewing the techniques used to obstruct action on tobacco control by vested interests through constantly raising doubt about the science in this arena, a similar pattern is seen in obstructing action on climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: It is clear that the raising of unverified doubt is the primary tool employed by profit-driven corporations to prevent constructive action in both these arenas, with the very high potential for the health of the whole population to suffer as a result.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Those promoting the health of Australians have a responsibility to optimise health in this regard and need to think differently through embracing complexity science and then take action, with the first step being to provide constant counter-arguments to the unsubstantiated statements of the 'doubt-sayers'.}, }
@article {pmid22518918, year = {2011}, author = {Makin, J}, title = {Implications of climate change for skin cancer prevention in Australia.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {22 Spec No}, number = {}, pages = {S39-41}, doi = {10.1071/he11439}, pmid = {22518918}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Health Promotion ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology/etiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Sunburn/complications ; Sunscreening Agents/therapeutic use ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {It is estimated that nearly 450,000 Australians get skin cancer every year. Ultraviolet (UV) radiation from sunlight has been identified as the cause of more than 95% of skin cancers in Australia. Accordingly, the focus of skin cancer prevention programs is reducing exposure to UV radiation. In Victoria, improvements in sun protection behaviours and reductions in sunburn and melanoma incidence rates among younger people have been observed since the SunSmart program was established in 1988. However, climate change has the potential to undermine these successes. First, surface UVB radiation is dependent on stratospheric total ozone amounts. While signs of impact of international restrictions on the production of ozone-depleting substances have been observed, improvements have not yet returned ozone to pre-1970s levels. Interactions between ozone depletion and climate change may slow the recovery of the ozone layer and compound increases in UV radiation at some latitudes. Before recovery, it is expected that higher levels of UV radiation will continue in most Australian regions, with an associated higher risk of skin cancer. Indeed, recent data show increases in surface UV radiation throughout Australia since the 1970s. Second, mean temperatures in Australia have increased over the past 30 years and are projected to rise further by 2030. Australian data shows that with higher temperatures, adults spend more time outdoors, are less likely to wear covering clothing and more likely to be sunburnt. Hence, rising temperatures can be expected to result in increases in sun exposure, sunburn and correspondingly, skin cancer risk.}, }
@article {pmid22518917, year = {2011}, author = {Howat, P and Stoneham, M}, title = {Why sustainable population growth is a key to climate change and public health equity.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {22 Spec No}, number = {}, pages = {S34-8}, doi = {10.1071/he11434}, pmid = {22518917}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Health Services for the Aged ; *Health Status Disparities ; Housing ; Humans ; Mental Health ; Policy ; *Population Growth ; *Public Health ; Transportation ; Waste Management ; Waste Products ; }, abstract = {Australia's population could reach 42 million by 2050. This rapid population growth, if unabated, will have significant social, public health and environmental implications. On the one hand, it is a major driver of climate change and environmental degradation; on the other it is likely to be a major contributor to growing social and health issues including a decline in quality of life for many residents. Disadvantaged and vulnerable groups will be most affected. The environmental, social and health-related issues include: pressure on the limited arable land in Australia; increased volumes of industrial and domestic waste; inadequate essential services; traffic congestion; lack of affordable housing; declining mental health; increased obesity problems; and inadequate aged care services. Many of these factors are related to the aggravation of climate change and health inequities. It is critical that the Australian Government develops a sustainable population plan with stabilisation of population growth as an option. The plan needs to ensure adequate hospitals and healthcare services, education facilities, road infrastructure, sustainable transport options, water quality and quantity, utilities and other amenities that are already severely overburdened in Australian cities. There is a need for a guarantee that affordable housing will be available and priority be given to training young people and Indigenous people for employment. This paper presents evidence to support the need for the stabilisation of population growth as one of the most significant measures to control climate change as well as to improve public health equity.}, }
@article {pmid22518916, year = {2011}, author = {Patrick, R and Smith, JA}, title = {Core health promotion competencies in Australia: are they compatible with climate change action?.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {22 Spec No}, number = {}, pages = {S28-33}, doi = {10.1071/he11428}, pmid = {22518916}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration/standards ; Humans ; Needs Assessment ; *Professional Competence ; Program Development ; }, abstract = {ISSUES ADDRESSED: Health promotion principles for practice are closely aligned with that of environmental sustainability. Health promotion practitioners are well positioned to take action on climate change. However, there has been scant discussion about practice synergies and subsequently the type and nature of professional competencies that underpin such action.<br><br>METHODS: This commentary uses the Australian Health Promotion Association (AHPA) national core competencies for Health Promotion Practitioners as a basis to examine the synergies between climate change and health promotion action.<br><br>RESULTS: We demonstrate that AHPA core competencies, such as program planning, evaluation and partnership building, are highly compatible for implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. We use food security examples to illustrate this case.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There appears to be considerable synergy between climate change and health promotion action. This should be a key focus of future health promotion competency development in Australia.}, }
@article {pmid22518913, year = {2011}, author = {Farbotko, C and Waitt, G}, title = {Residential air-conditioning and climate change: voices of the vulnerable.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {13-15}, pmid = {22518913}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {*Air Conditioning ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Health Promotion ; Heat Stress Disorders/prevention &amp; control ; Hot Temperature ; *Housing ; Humans ; Policy ; Public Health ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {ISSUE ADDRESSED: Decreasing the risk of heat-stress is an imperative in health promotion, and is widely accepted as necessary for successful adaptation to climate change. Less well understood are the vulnerabilities that air-conditioning use exacerbates, and conversely, the need for the promotion of alternative strategies for coping with heat wave conditions. This paper considers these issues with a focus on the role of air-conditioning in the everyday life of elderly public housing tenants living alone, a sector of the population that has been identified as being at high risk of suffering heat stress.<br><br>METHODS: A vulnerability analysis of domestic air-conditioning use, drawing on literature and policy on air-conditioning practices and ethnographic research with households.<br><br>RESULTS: Residential air-conditioning exacerbated existing inequities. Case studies of two specifically selected low-income elderly single person households revealed that such households were unlikely to be able to afford this 'solution' to increasing exposure to heat waves in the absence of energy subsidies. Residential air-conditioning use during heat waves caused unintended side-effects, such as system-wide blackouts, which, in turn, led to escalating electricity costs as power companies responded by upgrading infrastructure to cope with periods of excess demand. Air-conditioning also contributed to emissions that cause climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Residential air-conditioning is a potentially maladaptive technology for reducing the risk of heat stress.}, }
@article {pmid22518912, year = {2011}, author = {Walker, R and Hassall, J and Chaplin, S and Congues, J and Bajayo, R and Mason, W}, title = {Health promotion interventions to address climate change using a primary health care approach: a literature review.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {22 Spec No}, number = {}, pages = {S6-12}, doi = {10.1071/he11406}, pmid = {22518912}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Community Networks/organization &amp; administration ; Consumer Health Information/methods ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Primary Health Care/*organization &amp; administration ; Schools/organization &amp; administration ; Social Marketing ; }, abstract = {ISSUE ADDRESSED: This project explored the literature in which key concepts in primary health care and health promotion are overtly applied to the problem of climate change. This paper contains a discussion of the literature relevant to health promotion principles and intervention strategies for addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation in the primary health care sector. The concept of primary health care is that used by the World Health Organization, based on the Declaration of Alma Ata and often referred to as comprehensive primary health care to differentiate it from primary medical care.<br><br>METHODS: This was a review of literature identified in electronic databases using two sets of search terms. Set A consisted of 'climate change or global warming or greenhouse effect' and set B consisted of 11 key concepts in primary health care and health promotion, for example community resilience, health promotion, social change, food security and economic development. Relevant literature was identified at the intersection of search term A with a term from set B. A search was completed for each set B term.<br><br>RESULTS: This paper reports a discussion of major categories of health promotion interventions, namely health communication, community building and settings approaches and uses examples drawn from literature on community resilience and summer heat. These interventions are all applicable to the primary health care sector.<br><br>CONCLUSION: There is a small literature on health promotion interventions for climate change mitigation and adaptation but it is incomplete and scattered across many sources. An important area for further research is to link the logic of service provision in primary health care to the logic of mitigation and adaptation in a changing environment. Interventions that link the logic must also link diverse services to provide coherent action on local and domestic scales, the scales at which primary health care acts. Another research gap is in regard to institutional change in the primary health care sector. How do the patterns of knowledge, practice and values need to change in the array of organisations that make up comprehensive primary health care?}, }
@article {pmid22518911, year = {2011}, author = {Sweet, M}, title = {Action on climate change requires strong leadership from the health sector.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {22 Spec No}, number = {}, pages = {S4-5}, doi = {10.1071/he11404}, pmid = {22518911}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Health Care Sector/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*organization &amp; administration ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Leadership ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid22518910, year = {2011}, author = {Smith, JA and Capon, A}, title = {Addressing climate change through health promotion in Australia.}, journal = {Health promotion journal of Australia : official journal of Australian Association of Health Promotion Professionals}, volume = {22 Spec No}, number = {}, pages = {S3-4}, doi = {10.1071/he11403}, pmid = {22518910}, issn = {1036-1073}, mesh = {Australia ; Awareness ; *Climate Change ; Health Promotion/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/methods/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid22515622, year = {2012}, author = {Nolen, RS}, title = {Climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association}, volume = {240}, number = {9}, pages = {1042-1044}, doi = {10.2460/javma.240.9.1042}, pmid = {22515622}, issn = {1943-569X}, mesh = {*Cultural Diversity ; Ethnicity/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Minority Groups/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Schools, Veterinary/*trends ; Students ; United States ; Veterinary Medicine/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid22512785, year = {2012}, author = {Jay, F and Manel, S and Alvarez, N and Durand, EY and Thuiller, W and Holderegger, R and Taberlet, P and François, O}, title = {Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {2354-2368}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2012.05541.x}, pmid = {22512785}, issn = {1365-294X}, support = {281422/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Altitude ; *Forecasting ; Genetics, Population/*methods ; Genotype ; *Global Warming ; Models, Genetic ; Plants/*genetics ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Species range shifts in response to climate and land use change are commonly forecasted with species distribution models based on species occurrence or abundance data. Although appealing, these models ignore the genetic structure of species, and the fact that different populations might respond in different ways because of adaptation to their environment. Here, we introduced ancestry distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data. Using multi-locus genotypes and extensive geographic coverage of distribution data across the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase in temperature from 0.25 to 4 °C. We forecasted the magnitudes of displacement of contact zones between plant populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement in a north-east direction was predicted, the magnitude of displacement was species-specific. For a temperature increase of 2 °C, contact zones were predicted to move by 92 km on average (minimum of 5 km, maximum of 212 km) and by 188 km for an increase of 4 °C (minimum of 11 km, maximum of 393 km). Intra-specific turnover-measuring the extent of change in global population genetic structure-was generally found to be moderate for 2 °C of temperature warming. For 4 °C of warming, however, the models indicated substantial intra-specific turnover for ten species. These results illustrate that, in spite of unavoidable simplifications, ancestry distribution models open new perspectives to forecast population genetic changes within species and complement more traditional distribution-based approaches.}, }
@article {pmid22511717, year = {2012}, author = {Finnegan, S and Heim, NA and Peters, SE and Fischer, WW}, title = {Climate change and the selective signature of the Late Ordovician mass extinction.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {18}, pages = {6829-6834}, pmid = {22511717}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/classification ; Biodiversity ; Canada ; Climate Change/*history ; *Extinction, Biological ; Fossils ; History, Ancient ; United States ; }, abstract = {Selectivity patterns provide insights into the causes of ancient extinction events. The Late Ordovician mass extinction was related to Gondwanan glaciation; however, it is still unclear whether elevated extinction rates were attributable to record failure, habitat loss, or climatic cooling. We examined Middle Ordovician-Early Silurian North American fossil occurrences within a spatiotemporally explicit stratigraphic framework that allowed us to quantify rock record effects on a per-taxon basis and assay the interplay of macrostratigraphic and macroecological variables in determining extinction risk. Genera that had large proportions of their observed geographic ranges affected by stratigraphic truncation or environmental shifts at the end of the Katian stage were particularly hard hit. The duration of the subsequent sampling gaps had little effect on extinction risk, suggesting that this extinction pulse cannot be entirely attributed to rock record failure; rather, it was caused, in part, by habitat loss. Extinction risk at this time was also strongly influenced by the maximum paleolatitude at which a genus had previously been sampled, a macroecological trait linked to thermal tolerance. A model trained on the relationship between 16 explanatory variables and extinction patterns during the early Katian interval substantially underestimates the extinction of exclusively tropical taxa during the late Katian interval. These results indicate that glacioeustatic sea-level fall and tropical ocean cooling played important roles in the first pulse of the Late Ordovician mass extinction in Laurentia.}, }
@article {pmid22509036, year = {2012}, author = {Kates, RW and Travis, WR and Wilbanks, TJ}, title = {Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {19}, pages = {7156-7161}, pmid = {22509036}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Africa ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Humans ; North America ; }, abstract = {All human-environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid22504669, year = {2012}, author = {Hosking, J and Campbell-Lendrum, D}, title = {How well does climate change and human health research match the demands of policymakers? A scoping review.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {8}, pages = {1076-1082}, pmid = {22504669}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Policy Making ; *Research ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In 2008, the World Health Organization (WHO) Member States passed a World Health Assembly resolution that identified the following five priority areas for research and pilot projects on climate change and human health: health vulnerability, health protection, health impacts of mitigation and adaptation policies, decision-support and other tools, and costs of health protection from climate change.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To assess the extent to which recently published research corresponds to these priorities, we undertook a scoping review of original research on climate change and human health. Scoping reviews address topics that are too broad for a systematic review and commonly aim to identify research gaps in existing literature. We also assessed recent publication trends for climate change and health research.<br><br>METHODS: We searched for original quantitative research published from 2008 onward. We included disease burden studies that were specific to climate change and health and included intervention studies that focused on climate change and measured health outcomes. We used MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science databases and extracted data on research priority areas, geographic regions, health fields, and equity (systematic differences between advantaged and disadvantaged social groups).<br><br>DISCUSSION: We identified 40 eligible studies. Compared with other health topics, the number of climate change publications has grown rapidly, with a larger proportion of reviews or editorials. Recent original research addressed four of the five priority areas identified by the WHO Member States, but we found no eligible studies of health adaptation interventions, and most of the studies focused on high-income countries.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change and health is a rapidly growing area of research, but quantitative studies remain rare. Among recently published studies, we found gaps in adaptation research and a deficit of studies in most developing regions. Funders and researchers should monitor and respond to research gaps to help ensure that the needs of policymakers are met.}, }
@article {pmid22497474, year = {2012}, author = {Wise, RM and Reyers, B and Guo, C and Midgley, GF and De Lange, W}, title = {Costs of expanding the network of protected areas as a response to climate change in the Cape Floristic Region.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {397-407}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2012.01841.x}, pmid = {22497474}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics/*methods ; Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Plants ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {The expansion of protected areas is a critical component of strategies to promote the continued existence of biodiversity (i.e., life at all levels of biological organization) as climate changes, but scientific, social, and economic uncertainties associated with climate change are some of the major obstacles preventing such expansion. New models of climate change and species distribution and new methods of conservation planning now make it possible to explore the uncertainties associated with climate changes and species responses. Yet few reliable estimates of the costs of expanding protected areas and methods for determining these costs exist, largely because of the many (and uncertain) determinants of these costs. We developed a cost-accounting model to estimate the range in costs of various options for expanding protected areas and to explore the variables that drive these costs. Model development was informed by an existing plan to expand protected areas in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa to address species conservation under a scenario of climate change. The 50-year present value of total costs varied from US$260 million ($1077/ha) for an off-reserve option that involves agreements with landowners and no compensation of forgone production and associated revenue to $1020 million ($4228/ha) for an on-reserve option that involves land acquisition and protection. The costs of acquiring land or compensating landowners for forgone production and development opportunities were the major drivers of the total costs across all options because most of the area identified in the protected-area expansion plan consisted of urban and high-quality agricultural lands. Total costs were also affected by changes in protected area extent and discount rate. Model-generated outputs such as these may be useful for informing implementation strategies and the allocation of future efforts in monitoring, data collection, and model development.}, }
@article {pmid22497442, year = {2012}, author = {Busch, J and Dave, R and Hannah, L and Cameron, A and Rasolohery, A and Roehrdanz, P and Schatz, G}, title = {Climate change and the cost of conserving species in Madagascar.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {26}, number = {3}, pages = {408-419}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2012.01838.x}, pmid = {22497442}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; *Ecosystem ; Madagascar ; Models, Biological ; *Plants ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges from 2000 to 2080 of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar under 3 climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 ha of forest cover for each species and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each scenario. We interviewed managers of projects to restore native forests and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species, we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species' ranges, the overlap between species' ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species' ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha); avoidance of forest degradation (i.e., loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha); avoidance of deforestation in unprotected areas ($252-1069/ha); and establishment of forest on nonforested land within protected areas ($802-2710/ha), in community-managed areas ($962-3226/ha), and in unprotected areas ($1054-3719/ha). Our results suggest that although forest restoration may be required for the conservation of some species as climate changes, it is more cost-effective to maintain existing forest wherever possible.}, }
@article {pmid22496138, year = {2012}, author = {Guillebaud, J}, title = {Opportunity to discuss voluntary family planning was missed in spotlight on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {344}, number = {}, pages = {e2575}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.e2575}, pmid = {22496138}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Birth Rate/*trends ; *Climate Change ; *Family Planning Services ; Fossil Fuels ; Global Health ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Mortality/*trends ; Population Control ; Population Growth ; }, }
@article {pmid22489642, year = {2012}, author = {Milfont, TL}, title = {The interplay between knowledge, perceived efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change: a one-year longitudinal study.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {1003-1020}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01800.x}, pmid = {22489642}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Middle Aged ; New Zealand ; *Perception ; Politics ; Public Policy ; Risk ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {If the long-term goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C is to be achieved, rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are required. These reductions will demand political leadership and widespread public support for action on global warming and climate change. Public knowledge, level of concern, and perceived personal efficacy, in positively affecting these issues are key variables in understanding public support for mitigation action. Previous research has documented some contradictory associations between knowledge, personal efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about temporal stability and direction of influence. This study examines the relationships between these three variables over a one-year period and three waves with national data from New Zealand. Results showed a positive association between the variables, and the pattern of findings was stable and consistent across the three data points. More importantly, results indicate that concern mediates the influence of knowledge on personal efficacy. Knowing more about global warming and climate change increases overall concern about the risks of these issues, and this increased concern leads to greater perceived efficacy and responsibility to help solving them. Implications for risk communication are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid22487340, year = {2012}, author = {Weston, D}, title = {Public health and climate change.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {104-106}, doi = {10.1111/j.1753-6405.2011.00818.x}, pmid = {22487340}, issn = {1753-6405}, mesh = {*Climate Change/mortality ; Global Health ; Health Education/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Politics ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid22486296, year = {2012}, author = {Smith, N and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {The rise of global warming skepticism: exploring affective image associations in the United States over time.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {1021-1032}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01801.x}, pmid = {22486296}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Attitude ; Climate Change ; Cognition ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Imagery, Psychotherapy ; Models, Statistical ; Perception ; Politics ; Public Opinion ; Public Policy ; Regression Analysis ; Research Design ; *Risk ; Time Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {This article explores how affective image associations to global warming have changed over time. Four nationally representative surveys of the American public were conducted between 2002 and 2010 to assess public global warming risk perceptions, policy preferences, and behavior. Affective images (positive or negative feelings and cognitive representations) were collected and content analyzed. The results demonstrate a large increase in "naysayer" associations, indicating extreme skepticism about the issue of climate change. Multiple regression analyses found that holistic affect and "naysayer" associations were more significant predictors of global warming risk perceptions than cultural worldviews or sociodemographic variables, including political party and ideology. The results demonstrate the important role affective imagery plays in judgment and decision-making processes, how these variables change over time, and how global warming is currently perceived by the American public.}, }
@article {pmid22482030, year = {2011}, author = {Khanna, M and Crago, CL and Black, M}, title = {Can biofuels be a solution to climate change? The implications of land use change-related emissions for policy.}, journal = {Interface focus}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {233-247}, pmid = {22482030}, issn = {2042-8901}, abstract = {Biofuels have gained increasing attention as an alternative to fossil fuels for several reasons, one of which is their potential to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. Recent studies have questioned the validity of claims about the potential of biofuels to reduce GHG emissions relative to the liquid fossil fuels they are replacing when emissions owing to direct (DLUC) and indirect land use changes (ILUC) that accompany biofuels are included in the life cycle GHG intensity of biofuels. Studies estimate that the GHG emissions released from ILUC could more than offset the direct GHG savings by producing biofuels and replacing liquid fossil fuels and create a 'carbon debt' with a long payback period. The estimates of this payback period, however, vary widely across biofuels from different feedstocks and even for a single biofuel across different modelling assumptions. In the case of corn ethanol, this payback period is found to range from 15 to 200 years. We discuss the challenges in estimating the ILUC effect of a biofuel and differences across biofuels, and its sensitivity to the assumptions and policy scenarios considered by different economic models. We also discuss the implications of ILUC for designing policies that promote biofuels and seek to reduce GHG emissions. In a first-best setting, a global carbon tax is needed to set both DLUC and ILUC emissions to their optimal levels. However, it is unclear whether unilateral GHG mitigation policies, even if they penalize the ILUC-related emissions, would increase social welfare and lead to optimal emission levels. In the absence of a global carbon tax, incentivizing sustainable land use practices through certification standards, government regulations and market-based pressures may be a viable option for reducing ILUC.}, }
@article {pmid22481357, year = {2012}, author = {Shakun, JD and Clark, PU and He, F and Marcott, SA and Mix, AC and Liu, Z and Otto-Bliesner, B and Schmittner, A and Bard, E}, title = {Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {484}, number = {7392}, pages = {49-54}, pmid = {22481357}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Fossils ; Geography ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenland ; History, Ancient ; *Ice Cover ; Models, Theoretical ; Monte Carlo Method ; Pollen ; Seawater/analysis ; *Temperature ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.}, }
@article {pmid22481351, year = {2012}, author = {Wolff, EW}, title = {Climate change: A tale of two hemispheres.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {484}, number = {7392}, pages = {41-42}, pmid = {22481351}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid22479253, year = {2012}, author = {Rolandi, C and Schilman, PE}, title = {Linking global warming, metabolic rate of hematophagous vectors, and the transmission of infectious diseases.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {75}, pmid = {22479253}, issn = {1664-042X}, }
@article {pmid22474679, year = {2012}, author = {Macklin, MG and Lewin, J and Woodward, JC}, title = {The fluvial record of climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {370}, number = {1966}, pages = {2143-2172}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2011.0608}, pmid = {22474679}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {Fluvial landforms and sediments can be used to reconstruct past hydrological conditions over different time scales once allowance has been made for tectonic, base-level and human complications. Field stratigraphic evidence is explored here at three time scales: the later Pleistocene, the Holocene, and the historical and instrumental period. New data from a range of field studies demonstrate that Croll-Milankovitch forcing, Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, enhanced monsoon circulation, millennial- to centennial-scale climate variability within the Holocene (probably associated with solar forcing and deep ocean circulation) and flood-event variability in recent centuries can all be discerned in the fluvial record. Although very significant advances have been made in river system and climate change research in recent years, the potential of fluvial palaeohydrology has yet to be fully realized, to the detriment of climatology, public health, resource management and river engineering.}, }
@article {pmid22471525, year = {2012}, author = {Hori, Y and Tam, B and Gough, WA and Ho-Foong, E and Karagatzides, JD and Liberda, EN and Tsuji, LJ}, title = {Use of traditional environmental knowledge to assess the impact of climate change on subsistence fishing in the James Bay Region of Northern Ontario, Canada.}, journal = {Rural and remote health}, volume = {12}, number = {}, pages = {1878}, pmid = {22471525}, issn = {1445-6354}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Culture ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Health/*education ; *Fishes ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Indians, North American ; Interviews as Topic ; *Knowledge ; Male ; Ontario ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: In Canada, unique food security challenges are being faced by Aboriginal people living in remote-northern communities due to the impacts of climate change on subsistence harvesting. This study used traditional environmental knowledge (TEK) to investigate whether there was a temporal relationship between extreme climatic events in the summer of 2005, and fish die-offs in the Albany River, northern Ontario, Canada. Also, TEK was utilized to examine a potential shift in subsistence fish species distribution due to climate change.<br><br>METHODS: To investigate whether there was a temporal relationship between the fish die-offs of July 2005 (as identified by TEK) and an extreme climatic event, temperature and daily precipitation data for Moosonee weather station were utilized. To determine if there was an increasing trend in mean maximal summer temperatures with year, temperature data were examined, using regression analysis. Present-day fish distributions were determined using unpublished TEK data collated from previous studies and purposive, semi-directive interviews with elders and experienced bushman.<br><br>RESULTS: Fish die-offs in 2005 occurred during the time period 11-18 July, as reported by participants. Recorded air-temperature maxima of the two July 2005 heat waves delineate exactly the time period of fish die-offs. Two heat waves occurring during the same summer season and so close together has never before been recorded for this region. A highly significant (p < 0.0009) positive relationship between mean maximal summer temperatures and year was evident. Regionally novel fish species were not apparent, utilizing TEK.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Traditional environmental knowledge coupled with climate data revealed temporal relationships between extreme climatic events in 2005, and fish die-offs in the Albany River. Thus, climate change can directly impact food security by decreasing the number of fish through mortality - and indirectly through population dynamics - by impacting the yield of fish subsistence harvests in the future. By contrast, TEK did not reveal northward expansion of novel fish species in the Albany River or fish distributional contraction in the western James Bay region.}, }
@article {pmid22471091, year = {2012}, author = {Brown, CJ and Fulton, EA and Possingham, HP and Richardson, AJ}, title = {How long can fisheries management delay action in response to ecosystem and climate change?.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {298-310}, doi = {10.1890/11-0419.1}, pmid = {22471091}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Fisheries/*standards ; Fishes ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Sustainable management of fisheries is often compromised by management delaying implementation of regulations that reduce harvest, in order to maintain higher catches in the short-term. Decreases or increases in fish population growth rate driven by environmental change, including ecosystem and climate change, affect the harvest that can be taken sustainably. If not acted on rapidly, environmental change could result in unsustainable fishing or missed opportunity for higher catches. Using simulation models of harvested fish populations influenced by environmental change, we explore how long fisheries managers can afford to wait before changing harvest regulations in response to changes in population growth. If environmental change causes population declines, delays greater than five years increase the probability of population collapse. Species with fast and highly variable population growth rates are more susceptible to collapse under delays and should be a priority for revised management where delays occur. Generally, the long-term cost of delay, in terms of lost fishing opportunity, exceeds the short-term benefits of overfishing. Lowering harvest limits and monitoring for environmental change can alleviate the impact of delays; however, these measures may be more costly than reducing delays. We recommend that management systems that allow rapid responses to population growth changes be enacted for fisheries management to adapt to ecosystem and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22471077, year = {2012}, author = {Brost, BM and Beier, P}, title = {Use of land facets to design linkages for climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {87-103}, doi = {10.1890/11-0213.1}, pmid = {22471077}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Arizona ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Least-cost modeling for focal species is the most widely used method for designing conservation corridors and linkages. However, these linkages have been based on current species' distributions and land cover, both of which will change with large-scale climate change. One method to develop corridors that facilitate species' shifting distributions is to incorporate climate models into their design. But this approach is enormously complex and prone to error propagation. It also produces outputs at a grain size (km2) coarser than the grain at which conservation decisions are made. One way to avoid these problems is to design linkages for the continuity and interspersion of land facets, or recurring landscape units of relatively uniform topography and soils. This coarse-filter approach aims to conserve the arenas of biological activity rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. In this paper, we demonstrate how land facets can be defined in a rule-based and adaptable way, and how they can be used for linkage design in the face of climate change. We used fuzzy c-means cluster analysis to define land facets with respect to four topographic variables (elevation, slope angle, solar insolation, and topographic position), and least-cost analysis to design linkages that include one corridor per land facet. To demonstrate the flexibility of our procedures, we designed linkages using land facets in three topographically diverse landscapes in Arizona, USA. Our procedures can use other variables, including soil variables, to define land facets. We advocate using land facets to complement, rather than replace, existing focal species approaches to linkage design. This approach can be used even in regions lacking land cover maps and is not affected by the bias and patchiness common in species occurrence data.}, }
@article {pmid22467712, year = {2012}, author = {Domec, JC and Ogée, J and Noormets, A and Jouangy, J and Gavazzi, M and Treasure, E and Sun, G and McNulty, SG and King, JS}, title = {Interactive effects of nocturnal transpiration and climate change on the root hydraulic redistribution and carbon and water budgets of southern United States pine plantations.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {707-723}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tps018}, pmid = {22467712}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Fertilizers ; Models, Biological ; North Carolina ; Pinus taeda/*physiology ; Plant Roots/*physiology ; *Plant Transpiration ; Rain ; Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; Trees/physiology ; Water/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Deep root water uptake and hydraulic redistribution (HR) have been shown to play a major role in forest ecosystems during drought, but little is known about the impact of climate change, fertilization and soil characteristics on HR and its consequences on water and carbon fluxes. Using data from three mid-rotation loblolly pine plantations, and simulations with the process-based model MuSICA, this study indicated that HR can mitigate the effects of soil drying and had important implications for carbon uptake potential and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), especially when N fertilization is considered. At the coastal site (C), characterized by deep organic soil, HR increased dry season tree transpiration (T) by up to 40%, and such an increase affected NEE through major changes in gross primary productivity (GPP). Deep-rooted trees did not necessarily translate into a large volume of HR unless soil texture allowed large water potential gradients to occur, as was the case at the sandy site (S). At the Piedmont site (P) characterized by a shallow clay-loam soil, HR was low but not negligible, representing up to 10% of T. In the absence of HR, it was predicted that at the C, S and P sites, annual GPP would have been diminished by 19, 7 and 9%, respectively. Under future climate conditions HR was predicted to be reduced by up to 25% at the C site, reducing the resilience of trees to precipitation deficits. The effect of HR on T and GPP was predicted to diminish under future conditions by 12 and 6% at the C and P sites, respectively. Under future conditions, T was predicted to stay the same at the P site, but to be marginally reduced at the C site and slightly increased at the S site. Future conditions and N fertilization would decrease T by 25% at the C site, by 15% at the P site and by 8% at the S site. At the C and S sites, GPP was estimated to increase by 18% and by >70% under future conditions, respectively, with little effect of N fertilization. At the P site, future conditions would stimulate GPP by only 12%, but future conditions plus N fertilization would increase GPP by 24%. As a consequence, in all sites, water use efficiency was predicted to improve dramatically with future conditions. Modeling the effect of reduced annual precipitation indicated that limited water availability would decrease all carbon fluxes, including NEE and respiration. Our simulations highlight the interactive effects of nutrients and elevated CO(2), and showed that the effect of N fertilization would be greater under future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid22466251, year = {2013}, author = {Bonofiglio, T and Orlandi, F and Ruga, L and Romano, B and Fornaciari, M}, title = {Climate change impact on the olive pollen season in Mediterranean areas of Italy: air quality in late spring from an allergenic point of view.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {185}, number = {1}, pages = {877-890}, pmid = {22466251}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Allergens/*analysis ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Italy ; *Olea ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*epidemiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Recent studies have shown that there are many effects of climate change on aeroallergens, and thus on allergic diseases in humans. In the Mediterranean region, despite the importance of the olive tree for production, there is high allergenicity of olive pollen and related risks to human health. Aerobiological sampling techniques can be used to analyse the pollinosis phenomenon through determination of mean daily pollen concentrations per cubic metre of air. The present study was carried out from 1999 to 2008 in 16 olive-growing areas in Italy, to update the information on the pollinosis characteristics of Olea europaea in the study areas. The analysis of the average flowering season over the study period highlights a temporal scaling of pollen in the atmosphere that depends on the different climatic characteristics. This is mainly dependent on temperature, and in part, determined by latitude. Generally, the levels of O. europaea pollen in the atmosphere are higher from mid-April to the end of June, with the period of greatest risk to human health due to this olive pollen in this area currently limited primarily to the last 10 days of May. However, the pollen season can move, depending on the climate scenario considered, and data here can be used to determine potential time shifts in pollinosis that might cause more precocious asthma and allergy problems. The allergy season for this type of pollen might be significantly precocious in future decades (20-30 days earlier in the year), which will impact on the severity and duration of allergies attributable to olive tree pollen.}, }
@article {pmid22461499, year = {2012}, author = {Brook, E}, title = {Climate change. The ice age carbon puzzle.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {336}, number = {6082}, pages = {682-683}, doi = {10.1126/science.1219710}, pmid = {22461499}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Atmosphere ; *Carbon Cycle ; *Carbon Isotopes ; *Climate Change ; *Ice Cover ; *Seawater ; }, }
@article {pmid22457967, year = {2012}, author = {Doney, SC and Ruckelshaus, M and Duffy, JE and Barry, JP and Chan, F and English, CA and Galindo, HM and Grebmeier, JM and Hollowed, AB and Knowlton, N and Polovina, J and Rabalais, NN and Sydeman, WJ and Talley, LD}, title = {Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.}, journal = {Annual review of marine science}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {11-37}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611}, pmid = {22457967}, issn = {1941-1405}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/chemistry ; }, abstract = {In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.}, }
@article {pmid22456878, year = {2012}, author = {Ruete, A and Yang, W and Bärring, L and Stenseth, NC and Snäll, T}, title = {Disentangling effects of uncertainties on population projections: climate change impact on an epixylic bryophyte.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {279}, number = {1740}, pages = {3098-3105}, pmid = {22456878}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; Bryopsida/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; *Population Dynamics ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Assessment of future ecosystem risks should account for the relevant uncertainty sources. This means accounting for the joint effects of climate variables and using modelling techniques that allow proper treatment of uncertainties. We investigate the influence of three of the IPCC's scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (special report on emission scenarios (SRES)) on projections of the future abundance of a bryophyte model species. We also compare the relative importance of uncertainty sources on the population projections. The whole chain global climate model (GCM)-regional climate model-population dynamics model is addressed. The uncertainty depends on both natural- and model-related sources, in particular on GCM uncertainty. Ignoring the uncertainties gives an unwarranted impression of confidence in the results. The most likely population development of the bryophyte Buxbaumia viridis towards the end of this century is negative: even with a low-emission scenario, there is more than a 65 per cent risk for the population to be halved. The conclusion of a population decline is valid for all SRES scenarios investigated. Uncertainties are no longer an obstacle, but a mandatory aspect to include in the viability analysis of populations.}, }
@article {pmid22456150, year = {2012}, author = {Bruun, JN}, title = {Tourism, climate change and diagnostics.}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {132}, number = {6}, pages = {670-671}, doi = {10.4045/tidsskr.11.1467}, pmid = {22456150}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {Humans ; Male ; Weil Disease/*diagnosis ; }, }
@article {pmid22451266, year = {2012}, author = {Pape, R and Löffler, J}, title = {Climate change, land use conflicts, predation and ecological degradation as challenges for reindeer husbandry in northern Europe: what do we really know after half a century of research?.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41}, number = {5}, pages = {421-434}, pmid = {22451266}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Reindeer/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Reindeer grazing has been entitled as ecological keystone in arctic-alpine landscapes. In addition, reindeer husbandry is tightly connected to the identity of the indigenous Sámi people in northern Europe. Nowadays, reindeer husbandry is challenged in several ways, of which pasture degradation, climate change, conflicting land uses and predation are the most important. Research on reindeer-related topics has been conducted for more than half a century and this review illuminates whether or not research is capable to match these challenges. Despite its high quality, traditional reindeer-related research is functionally isolated within the various disciplines. The meshwork of ecology, socio-economy, culture and politics, however, in which reindeer husbandry is embedded by various interactions, will remain unclear and difficult to manage, if actors and relationships are kept separate. We propose some targets for new integrative research approaches that incorporate traditional knowledge and focus on the entire human-ecological system 'reindeer husbandry' to develop solutions for its challenges.}, }
@article {pmid22447982, year = {2012}, author = {Panchen, ZA and Primack, RB and Anisko, T and Lyons, RE}, title = {Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations show Philadelphia area plants are responding to climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {99}, number = {4}, pages = {751-756}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1100198}, pmid = {22447982}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {*Botany ; *Climate Change ; Flowers/physiology ; Linear Models ; Philadelphia ; *Photography ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The global climate is changing rapidly and is expected to continue changing in coming decades. Studying changes in plant flowering times during a historical period of warming temperatures gives us a way to examine the impacts of climate change and allows us to predict further changes in coming decades. The Greater Philadelphia region has a long and rich history of botanical study and documentation, with abundant herbarium specimens, field observations, and botanical photographs from the mid-1800s onward. These extensive records also provide an opportunity to validate methodologies employed by other climate change researchers at a different biogeographical area and with a different group of species.<br><br>METHODS: Data for 2539 flowering records from 1840 to 2010 were assessed to examine changes in flowering response over time and in relation to monthly minimum temperatures of 28 Piedmont species native to the Greater Philadelphia region.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Regression analysis of the date of flowering with year or with temperature showed that, on average, the Greater Philadelphia species studied are flowering 16 d earlier over the 170-yr period and 2.7 d earlier per 1&#xb0;C rise in monthly minimum temperature.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Of the species studied, woody plants with short flowering duration are the best indicators of a warming climate. For monthly minimum temperatures, temperatures 1 or 2 mo prior to flowering are most significantly correlated with flowering time. Studies combining herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations are an effective method for detecting the effects of climate change on flowering times.}, }
@article {pmid22444758, year = {2012}, author = {Mychaskiw Ii, G}, title = {Anesthesia and global warming: the real hazards of theoretic science.}, journal = {Medical gas research}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {7}, pmid = {22444758}, issn = {2045-9912}, abstract = {Recent speculative articles in the medical literature have indicted certain inhalational anesthetics as contributing to global warming. This unfounded speculation may have deleterious patient impact.}, }
@article {pmid22439154, year = {2012}, author = {Karlsson, C and Hjerpe, M and Parker, C and Linner, BO}, title = {The legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {46-55}, pmid = {22439154}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *International Cooperation ; *Leadership ; *Negotiating ; }, abstract = {Leadeship is an essential ingredient in reaching international agreements and overcoming the collective action problems associated with responding to climate change. In this study, we aim at answering two questions that are crucial for understanding the legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations. Based on the responses of the three consecutive surveys distributed at COPs 14-16, we seek first to chart which actors are actually recognized as leaders by climate change negotiation participants. Second, we aim to explain what motivates COP participants to support different actors as leaders. Both these questions are indeed crucial for understanding the role, importance, and legitimacy of leadership in the international climate change regime. Our results show that the leadership landscape in this issue area is fragmented, with no one clear-cut leader, and strongly suggest that it is imperative for any actor seeking recognition as climate change leader to be perceived as being devoted to promoting the common good.}, }
@article {pmid22438052, year = {2012}, author = {Mariani, L and Parisi, SG and Cola, G and Failla, O}, title = {Climate change in Europe and effects on thermal resources for crops.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {56}, number = {6}, pages = {1123-1134}, pmid = {22438052}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Climate Change/*history ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Europe ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Atmospheric variables play a fundamental role in driving man-managed ecosystems and more specifically in agro-ecosystems, determining the quantity and quality of crop production. On the other hand, climate variability can be seen as the superimposition of gradual and abrupt changes. This paper is focused on European surface air temperature in the period 1951-2010. Analysis of this dataset identified breakpoints that define two homogeneous sub-periods: 1951-1987 and 1988-2010. Thermal resources for crops were analyzed adopting a "normal heat hours" approach. Computation highlighted a general increase in thermal resources in the European continent for crop groups II and III (C3 and C4 plants adapted to high or moderate temperatures), while a decline of thermal resources for crop group I (cold adapted C3) was highlighted in the Mediterranean area. The climate variability justifies a change in the potential latitudinal limits of different groups of crops, representing a fundamental step for crop adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22437431, year = {2012}, author = {Ellenwood, MS and Dilling, L and Milford, JB}, title = {Managing United States public lands in response to climate change: a view from the ground up.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {49}, number = {5}, pages = {954-967}, pmid = {22437431}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*organization &amp; administration ; Biofuels ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Colorado ; Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods ; Decision Making ; Forestry/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/organization &amp; administration ; Government Agencies ; Herbivory ; Ownership/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Planning Techniques ; }, abstract = {Federal land managers are faced with the task of balancing multiple uses and goals when making decisions about land use and the activities that occur on public lands. Though climate change is now well recognized by federal agencies and their local land and resource managers, it is not yet clear how issues related to climate change will be incorporated into on-the-ground decision making within the framework of multiple use objectives. We conducted a case study of a federal land management agency field office, the San Juan Public Lands Center in Durango, CO, U.S.A., to understand from their perspective how decisions are currently made, and how climate change and carbon management are being factored into decision making. We evaluated three major management sectors in which climate change or carbon management may intersect other use goals: forests, biofuels, and grazing. While land managers are aware of climate change and eager to understand more about how it might affect land resources, the incorporation of climate change considerations into everyday decision making is currently quite limited. Climate change is therefore on the radar screen, but remains a lower priority than other issues. To assist the office in making decisions that are based on sound scientific information, further research is needed into how management activities influence carbon storage and resilience of the landscape under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22437176, year = {2012}, author = {Johansson, J and Jonzén, N}, title = {Effects of territory competition and climate change on timing of arrival to breeding grounds: a game-theory approach.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {179}, number = {4}, pages = {463-474}, doi = {10.1086/664624}, pmid = {22437176}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Climate Change ; *Game Theory ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Phenology is an important part of life history that is gaining increased attention because of recent climate change. We use game theory to model phenological adaptation in migratory birds that compete for territories at their breeding grounds. We investigate how the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for the timing of arrival is affected by changes in the onset of spring, the timing of the resource peak, and the season length. We compare the ESS mean arrival date with the environmental optimum, that is, the mean arrival date that maximizes fitness in the absence of competition. When competition is strong, the ESS mean arrival date responds less than the environmental optimum to shifts in the resource peak but more to changes in the onset of spring. Increased season length may not necessarily affect the environmental optimum but can still advance the ESS mean arrival date. Conversely, shifting a narrow resource distribution may change the environmental optimum without affecting the ESS mean arrival date. The ESS mean arrival date and the environmental optimum may even shift in different directions. Hence, treating phenology as an evolutionary game rather than an optimization problem fundamentally changes what we predict to be an adaptive response to environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid22435190, year = {2011}, author = {Singh, BB and Sharma, R and Gill, JP and Aulakh, RS and Banga, HS}, title = {Climate change, zoonoses and India.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {779-788}, doi = {10.20506/rst.30.3.2073}, pmid = {22435190}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Air Microbiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors/classification ; Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; Water Pollution/adverse effects ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology/transmission ; }, abstract = {Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.}, }
@article {pmid22433365, year = {2012}, author = {Behrendt, H and Ring, J}, title = {Climate change, environment and allergy.}, journal = {Chemical immunology and allergy}, volume = {96}, number = {}, pages = {7-14}, doi = {10.1159/000331804}, pmid = {22433365}, issn = {1662-2898}, mesh = {Allergens/immunology ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/immunology/*pathology ; Pollen/immunology ; }, abstract = {Climate change with global warming is a physicometeorological fact that, among other aspects, will also affect human health. Apart from cardiovascular and infectious diseases, allergies seem to be at the forefront of the sequelae of climate change. By increasing temperature and concomitant increased CO(2) concentration, plant growth is affected in various ways leading to prolonged pollination periods in the northern hemisphere, as well as to the appearance of neophytes with allergenic properties, e.g. Ambrosia artemisiifolia (ragweed), in Central Europe. Because of the effects of environmental pollutants, which do not only act as irritants to skin and mucous membranes, allergen carriers such as pollen can be altered in the atmosphere and release allergens leading to allergen-containing aerosols in the ambient air. Pollen has been shown not only to be an allergen carrier, but also to release highly active lipid mediators (pollen-associated lipid mediators), which have proinflammatory and immunomodulating effects enhancing the initiation of allergy. Through the effects of climate change in the future, plant growth may be influenced in a way that more, new and altered pollens are produced, which may affect humans.}, }
@article {pmid22433068, year = {2012}, author = {Cheaib, A and Badeau, V and Boe, J and Chuine, I and Delire, C and Dufrêne, E and François, C and Gritti, ES and Legay, M and Pagé, C and Thuiller, W and Viovy, N and Leadley, P}, title = {Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {533-544}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01764.x}, pmid = {22433068}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Decision Support Techniques ; Environment ; Fagus ; France ; *Geography ; *Models, Biological ; Pinus ; Quercus ; *Trees ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche-based to process-based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO(2) impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion.}, }
@article {pmid22431663, year = {2012}, author = {Stott, R}, title = {Contraction and convergence: the best possible solution to the twin problems of climate change and inequity.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {344}, number = {}, pages = {e1765}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.e1765}, pmid = {22431663}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment Design/*trends ; Humans ; *Population Density ; *Public Health ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid22431661, year = {2012}, author = {McMichael, T and Montgomery, H and Costello, A}, title = {Health risks, present and future, from global climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {344}, number = {}, pages = {e1359}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.e1359}, pmid = {22431661}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disasters ; Environmental Illness/*etiology ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid22431660, year = {2012}, author = {Burke, T}, title = {Climate change: what needs to be done.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {344}, number = {}, pages = {e1358}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.e1358}, pmid = {22431660}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*methods ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect/*economics/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid22431658, year = {2012}, author = {Morisetti, N}, title = {Climate change and resource security.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {344}, number = {}, pages = {e1352}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.e1352}, pmid = {22431658}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Food Supply/*standards ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid22431657, year = {2012}, author = {Rapley, C}, title = {The health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {344}, number = {}, pages = {e1026}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.e1026}, pmid = {22431657}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid22431639, year = {2012}, author = {Szulczewski, ML and MacMinn, CW and Herzog, HJ and Juanes, R}, title = {Lifetime of carbon capture and storage as a climate-change mitigation technology.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {14}, pages = {5185-5189}, pmid = {22431639}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {In carbon capture and storage (CCS), CO(2) is captured at power plants and then injected underground into reservoirs like deep saline aquifers for long-term storage. While CCS may be critical for the continued use of fossil fuels in a carbon-constrained world, the deployment of CCS has been hindered by uncertainty in geologic storage capacities and sustainable injection rates, which has contributed to the absence of concerted government policy. Here, we clarify the potential of CCS to mitigate emissions in the United States by developing a storage-capacity supply curve that, unlike current large-scale capacity estimates, is derived from the fluid mechanics of CO(2) injection and trapping and incorporates injection-rate constraints. We show that storage supply is a dynamic quantity that grows with the duration of CCS, and we interpret the lifetime of CCS as the time for which the storage supply curve exceeds the storage demand curve from CO(2) production. We show that in the United States, if CO(2) production from power generation continues to rise at recent rates, then CCS can store enough CO(2) to stabilize emissions at current levels for at least 100 y. This result suggests that the large-scale implementation of CCS is a geologically viable climate-change mitigation option in the United States over the next century.}, }
@article {pmid22431356, year = {2012}, author = {Kimberly, DA and Salice, CJ}, title = {Understanding interactive effects of climate change and toxicants: importance of evolutionary processes.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {385-386}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.1286}, pmid = {22431356}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollutants/*toxicity ; Stress, Physiological ; }, }
@article {pmid22425276, year = {2012}, author = {Tisseuil, C and Vrac, M and Grenouillet, G and Wade, AJ and Gevrey, M and Oberdorff, T and Grodwohl, JB and Lek, S}, title = {Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {424}, number = {}, pages = {193-201}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.02.035}, pmid = {22425276}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Biota ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*physiology ; France ; *Fresh Water ; *Models, Biological ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid22423646, year = {2012}, author = {Böttcher, H and Freibauer, A and Scholz, Y and Gitz, V and Ciais, P and Mund, M and Wutzler, T and Schulze, ED}, title = {Setting priorities for land management to mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {5}, pmid = {22423646}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: No consensus has been reached how to measure the effectiveness of climate change mitigation in the land-use sector and how to prioritize land use accordingly. We used the long-term cumulative and average sectorial C stocks in biomass, soil and products, C stock changes, the substitution of fossil energy and of energy-intensive products, and net present value (NPV) as evaluation criteria for the effectiveness of a hectare of productive land to mitigate climate change and produce economic returns. We evaluated land management options using real-life data of Thuringia, a region representative for central-western European conditions, and input from life cycle assessment, with a carbon-tracking model. We focused on solid biomass use for energy production.<br><br>RESULTS: In forestry, the traditional timber production was most economically viable and most climate-friendly due to an assumed recycling rate of 80% of wood products for bioenergy. Intensification towards "pure bioenergy production" would reduce the average sectorial C stocks and the C substitution and would turn NPV negative. In the forest conservation (non-use) option, the sectorial C stocks increased by 52% against timber production, which was not compensated by foregone wood products and C substitution. Among the cropland options wheat for food with straw use for energy, whole cereals for energy, and short rotation coppice for bioenergy the latter was most climate-friendly. However, specific subsidies or incentives for perennials would be needed to favour this option.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: When using the harvested products as materials prior to energy use there is no climate argument to support intensification by switching from sawn-wood timber production towards energy-wood in forestry systems. A legal framework would be needed to ensure that harvested products are first used for raw materials prior to energy use. Only an effective recycling of biomaterials frees land for long-term sustained C sequestration by conservation. Reuse cascades avoid additional emissions from shifting production or intensification.}, }
@article {pmid22423330, year = {2012}, author = {McClure, CJ and Rolek, BW and McDonald, K and Hill, GE}, title = {Climate change and the decline of a once common bird.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {370-378}, pmid = {22423330}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to negatively impact wildlife through a variety of mechanisms including retraction of range. We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and regional and global climate indices to examine the effects of climate change on the breeding distribution of the Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common species that is rapidly declining. We found that the range of the Rusty Blackbird retracted northward by 143 km since the 1960s and that the probability of local extinction was highest at the southern range margin. Furthermore, we found that the mean breeding latitude of the Rusty Blackbird was significant and positively correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation with a lag of six years. Because the annual distribution of the Rusty Blackbird is affected by annual weather patterns produced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, our results support the hypothesis that directional climate change over the past 40 years is contributing to the decline of the Rusty Blackbird. Our study is the first to implicate climate change, acting through range retraction, in a major decline of a formerly common bird species.}, }
@article {pmid22422974, year = {2012}, author = {Stewart, JR and Stringer, CB}, title = {Human evolution out of Africa: the role of refugia and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {335}, number = {6074}, pages = {1317-1321}, doi = {10.1126/science.1215627}, pmid = {22422974}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Africa ; Animals ; Asia ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Europe ; Extinction, Biological ; Fossils ; Genetic Speciation ; *Hominidae/anatomy &amp; histology/genetics/physiology ; Humans ; Hybridization, Genetic ; Neanderthals/anatomy &amp; histology/genetics/physiology ; Phylogeography ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Although an African origin of the modern human species is generally accepted, the evolutionary processes involved in the speciation, geographical spread, and eventual extinction of archaic humans outside of Africa are much debated. An additional complexity has been the recent evidence of limited interbreeding between modern humans and the Neandertals and Denisovans. Modern human migrations and interactions began during the buildup to the Last Glacial Maximum, starting about 100,000 years ago. By examining the history of other organisms through glacial cycles, valuable models for evolutionary biogeography can be formulated. According to one such model, the adoption of a new refugium by a subgroup of a species may lead to important evolutionary changes.}, }
@article {pmid22421581, year = {2012}, author = {Pinkerton, KE and Rom, WN and Akpinar-Elci, M and Balmes, JR and Bayram, H and Brandli, O and Hollingsworth, JW and Kinney, PL and Margolis, HG and Martin, WJ and Sasser, EN and Smith, KR and Takaro, TK and , }, title = {An official American Thoracic Society workshop report: Climate change and human health.}, journal = {Proceedings of the American Thoracic Society}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3-8}, pmid = {22421581}, issn = {1943-5665}, support = {P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Education ; Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; *Guidelines as Topic ; Health Policy ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Policy Making ; Public Health ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/epidemiology/*etiology ; Risk Assessment ; Societies, Medical/organization &amp; administration ; United States ; }, abstract = {This document presents the proceedings from the American Thoracic Society Climate Change and Respiratory Health Workshop that was held on May 15, 2010, in New Orleans, Louisiana. The purpose of the one-day meeting was to address the threat to global respiratory health posed by climate change. Domestic and international experts as well as representatives of international respiratory societies and key U.S. federal agencies convened to identify necessary research questions concerning climate change and respiratory health and appropriate mechanisms and infrastructure needs for answering these questions. After much discussion, a breakout group compiled 27 recommendations for physicians, researchers, and policy makers. These recommendations are listed under main issues that the workshop participants deemed of key importance to respiratory health. Issues include the following: (1) the health impacts of climate change, with specific focus on the effect of heat waves, air pollution, and natural cycles; (2) mitigation and adaptation measures to be taken, with special emphasis on recommendations for the clinical and research community; (3) recognition of challenges specific to low-resource countries when coping with respiratory health and climate change; and (4) priority research infrastructure needs, with special discussion of international needs for cooperating with present and future environmental monitoring and alert systems.}, }
@article {pmid22420788, year = {2012}, author = {Embrey, S and Remais, JV and Hess, J}, title = {Climate change and ecosystem disruption: the health impacts of the North American Rocky Mountain pine beetle infestation.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {102}, number = {5}, pages = {818-827}, pmid = {22420788}, issn = {1541-0048}, support = {K01 AI091864/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; K01AI091864/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Fires ; Forestry/methods ; Health Status ; Humans ; Life Cycle Stages ; North America ; Ophiostomatales/growth &amp; development ; Pinus/*parasitology ; Plant Diseases/*parasitology ; Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; Water Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {In the United States and Canada, pine forest ecosystems are being dramatically affected by an unprecedented pine beetle infestation attributed to climate change. Both decreased frequency of extremely cold days and warmer winter temperature averages have led to an enphytotic devastating millions of acres of pine forest. The associated ecosystem disruption has the potential to cause significant health impacts from a range of exposures, including increased runoff and water turbidity, forest fires, and loss of ecosystem services. We review direct and indirect health impacts and possible prevention strategies. The pine beetle infestation highlights the need for public health to adopt an ecological, systems-oriented view to anticipate the full range of potential health impacts from climate change and facilitate effective planned adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid22418805, year = {2012}, author = {Vineis, P}, title = {[Causality, didactics and climate change].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {36}, number = {1}, pages = {61}, pmid = {22418805}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Causality ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Illness/*epidemiology/*etiology ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid22418651, year = {2012}, author = {Anenberg, SC and Schwartz, J and Shindell, D and Amann, M and Faluvegi, G and Klimont, Z and Janssens-Maenhout, G and Pozzoli, L and Van Dingenen, R and Vignati, E and Emberson, L and Muller, NZ and West, JJ and Williams, M and Demkine, V and Hicks, WK and Kuylenstierna, J and Raes, F and Ramanathan, V}, title = {Global air quality and health co-benefits of mitigating near-term climate change through methane and black carbon emission controls.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {6}, pages = {831-839}, pmid = {22418651}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {P30 ES000002/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; Methane/adverse effects/*analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; Ozone/adverse effects/*analysis ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects/*analysis ; Public Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Soot ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM(2.5)), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years.<br><br>METHODS: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM(2.5) and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM(2.5)- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions.<br><br>RESULTS: We estimated that, for PM(2.5) and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM(2.5) relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.}, }
@article {pmid22414235, year = {2012}, author = {Marchioro, CA and Foerster, LA}, title = {Modelling reproduction of Plutella xylostella L. (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): climate change may modify pest incidence levels.}, journal = {Bulletin of entomological research}, volume = {102}, number = {4}, pages = {489-496}, doi = {10.1017/S0007485312000119}, pmid = {22414235}, issn = {1475-2670}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Female ; Fertility/*physiology ; Larva/growth &amp; development ; Life Tables ; Male ; *Models, Biological ; Moths ; Oviposition/*physiology ; Ovum/growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Temperature is considered to be an important abiotic factor influencing insect reproduction. Despite the importance of Plutella xylostella L. (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) as a pest of brassicaceous crops worldwide, the effects of temperature on its reproduction are not well understood. We evaluated the effect of constant temperatures ranging from 10 to 32.5°C on the reproduction of P. xylostella and developed an oviposition model for the species. The model combined temperature-dependent parameters of total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate and age-specific survival. Additionally, we modelled population growth as a function of temperature. The estimated parameters allowed us to discuss the possible consequences of global warming on P. xylostella distribution. Temperature affected the length of pre-oviposition after adult emergence, oviposition period, longevity, total fecundity and egg viability. The model predicted that both daily egg production and length of oviposition period decreased at temperatures below 15°C and above 25°C. Population growth increased linearly with temperature in a range from 10°C to 25°C; however, the model predicted a reduction in population growth at temperatures above 28.6°C. Data suggested that temperature plays a critical role in P. xylostella reproduction, and subtle differences in average temperature could have an impact on its population growth. This is especially important in the context of global climate change, which in turn could alter the distribution and abundance of the pest in some regions of the world.}, }
@article {pmid22412295, year = {2011}, author = {Pandve, HT and Chawla, PS and Fernandez, K and Singru, SA}, title = {Climate change vulnerability: Index and mapping.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {142-143}, pmid = {22412295}, issn = {1998-3670}, }
@article {pmid22412288, year = {2011}, author = {Pandve, HT and Chawla, PS and Fernandez, K and Singru, SA and Khismatrao, D and Pawar, S}, title = {Assessment of awareness regarding climate change in an urban community.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {109-112}, pmid = {22412288}, issn = {1998-3670}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has emerged as one of the most devastating environmental threats. It is essential to assess the awareness regarding climate change in the general population for framing the mitigation activities.<br><br>AIM: To assess the awareness regarding climate change in an urban community.<br><br>SETTINGS AND DESIGN: Urban field practice area of a medical college in the Pune city. Observational study.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: The cross-sectional survey was conducted in the urban adult population who had given the written consent. A pre-tested questionnaire was used for a face to face interview. Responses were evaluated.<br><br>STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: Proportions, percentage.<br><br>RESULTS: Total 733 respondents above 18 years of age were included in the present survey. 672 (91.68%) respondents commented that global climate is changing. 547 (81.40%) respondents opined that human activities are contributing to climate change. 576 (85.71%) respondents commented that climate changing based on their personal experiences. Commonest source of information about climate change was television (59.78%). Poor awareness about UNFCC, Kyoto Protocol and IPCC was found. 549 (74.90%) respondents commented that deforestation contribute most significantly towards climate change. As per 530 (72.31%) respondents water related issues are due to changing climate change. According to 529 (72.17%) respondents, direct physical hazards of extreme climatic events are most important health related impact of climate change. According to 478 (65.21%) respondents, life style changes (63.3%) would be most effective in tackling climate change and for preventing further climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The urban general population is aware about changing global climate. Personal efforts are more important in mitigating climate change as per the urban general population. The awareness campaigns regarding mitigation activities are recommended.}, }
@article {pmid22411029, year = {2013}, author = {Barry, D and McDonald, S}, title = {Climate change or climate cycles? Snowpack trends in the Olympic and Cascade Mountains, Washington, USA.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {185}, number = {1}, pages = {719-728}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-012-2587-z}, pmid = {22411029}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Seasons ; Snow/*chemistry ; Washington ; }, abstract = {Climate change could significantly influence seasonal streamflow and water availability in the snowpack-fed watersheds of Washington, USA. Descriptions of snowpack decline often use linear ordinary least squares (OLS) models to quantify this change. However, the region's precipitation is known to be related to climate cycles. If snowpack decline is more closely related to these cycles, an OLS model cannot account for this effect, and thus both descriptions of trends and estimates of decline could be inaccurate. We used intervention analysis to determine whether snow water equivalent (SWE) in 25 long-term snow courses within the Olympic and Cascade Mountains are more accurately described by OLS (to represent gradual change), stationary (to represent no change), or step-stationary (to represent climate cycling) models. We used Bayesian information-theoretic methods to determine these models' relative likelihood, and we found 90 models that could plausibly describe the statistical structure of the 25 snow courses' time series. Posterior model probabilities of the 29 "most plausible" models ranged from 0.33 to 0.91 (mean = 0.58, s = 0.15). The majority of these time series (55%) were best represented as step-stationary models with a single breakpoint at 1976/77, coinciding with a major shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, estimates of SWE decline differed by as much as 35% between statistically plausible models of a single time series. This ambiguity is a critical problem for water management policy. Approaches such as intervention analysis should become part of the basic analytical toolkit for snowpack or other climatic time series data.}, }
@article {pmid22410625, year = {2012}, author = {Lamon, L and MacLeod, M and Marcomini, A and Hungerbühler, K}, title = {Modeling the influence of climate change on the mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Adriatic Sea.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {87}, number = {9}, pages = {1045-1051}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2012.02.010}, pmid = {22410625}, issn = {1879-1298}, mesh = {Air ; *Climate Change ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Polychlorinated Biphenyls/*analysis ; Temperature ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate forcing is forecasted to influence the Adriatic Sea region in a variety of ways, including increasing temperature, and affecting wind speeds, marine currents, precipitation and water salinity. The Adriatic Sea is intensively developed with agriculture, industry, and port activities that introduce pollutants to the environment. Here, we developed and applied a Level III fugacity model for the Adriatic Sea to estimate the current mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Sea, and to examine the effects of a climate change scenario on the distribution of these pollutants. The model's performance was evaluated for three PCB congeners against measured concentrations in the region using environmental parameters estimated from the 20th century climate scenario described in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC, and using Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. We find that modeled fugacities of PCBs in air, water and sediment of the Adriatic are in good agreement with observations. The model indicates that PCBs in the Adriatic Sea are closely coupled with the atmosphere, which acts as a net source to the water column. We used model experiments to assess the influence of changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation, marine currents, particulate organic carbon and air inflow concentrations forecast in the IPCC A1B climate change scenario on the mass balance of PCBs in the Sea. Assuming an identical PCBs' emission profile (e.g. use pattern, treatment/disposal of stockpiles, mode of entry), modeled fugacities of PCBs in the Adriatic Sea under the A1B climate scenario are higher because higher temperatures reduce the fugacity capacity of air, water and sediments, and because diffusive sources to the air are stronger.}, }
@article {pmid22408736, year = {2012}, author = {Müller, R and Seeland, A and Jagodzinski, LS and Diogo, JB and Nowak, C and Oehlmann, J}, title = {Simulated climate change conditions unveil the toxic potential of the fungicide pyrimethanil on the midge Chironomus riparius: a multigeneration experiment.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {196-210}, pmid = {22408736}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {Although it has been suggested that temperature increase may alter the toxic potential of environmental pollutants, few studies have investigated the potential risk of chemical stressors for wildlife under Global Climate Change (GCC) impact. We applied a bifactorial multigeneration study in order to test if GCC conditions alter the effects of low pesticide concentrations on life history and genetic diversity of the aquatic model organism Chironomus riparius. Experimental populations of the species were chronically exposed to a low concentration of the fungicide pyrimethanil (half of the no-observed-adverse-effect concentration: NOAEC/2) under two dynamic present-day temperature simulations (11.0-22.7°C; 14.0-25.2°C) and one future scenario (16.5-28.1°C). During the 140-day multigeneration study, survival, emergence, reproduction, population growth, and genetic diversity of C. riparius were analyzed. Our results reveal that high temperature and pyrimethanil act synergistically on the midge C. riparius. In simulated present-day scenarios, a NOAEC/2 of pyrimethanil as derived from a life-cycle toxicity test provoked only slight-to-moderate beneficial or adverse effects on C. riparius. In contrast, exposure to a NOAEC/2 concentration of pyrimethanil at a thermal situation likely for a summer under GCC conditions uncovered adverse effects on mortality and population growth rate. In addition, genetic diversity was considerably reduced by pyrimethanil in the future scenario, but only slightly under current climatic conditions. Our multigeneration study under near-natural (climatic) conditions indicates that not only the impact of climate change, but also low concentrations of pesticides may pose a reasonable risk for aquatic insects in future.}, }
@article {pmid22408589, year = {2011}, author = {Martinez, GS and Imai, C and Masumo, K}, title = {Local heat stroke prevention plans in Japan: characteristics and elements for public health adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {4563-4581}, pmid = {22408589}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Heat Stroke/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Japan ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {The adverse health effects from hot weather and heat waves represent significant public health risks in vulnerable areas worldwide. Rising temperatures due to climate change are aggravating these risks in a context of fast urbanization, population growth and societal ageing. However, environmental heat-related health effects are largely preventable through adequate preparedness and responses. Public health adaptation to climate change will often require the implementation of heat wave warning systems and targeted preventive activities at different levels. While several national governments have established such systems at the country level, municipalities do not generally play a major role in the prevention of heat disorders. This paper analyzes selected examples of locally operated heat-health prevention plans in Japan. The analysis of these plans highlights their strengths, but also the need of local institutions for assistance to make the transition towards an effective public health management of high temperatures and heat waves. It can also provide useful elements for municipal governments in vulnerable areas, both in planning their climate change and health adaptation activities or to better protect their communities against current health effects from heat.}, }
@article {pmid22408580, year = {2011}, author = {Trærup, SL and Ortiz, RA and Markandya, A}, title = {The costs of climate change: a study of cholera in Tanzania.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {8}, number = {12}, pages = {4386-4405}, pmid = {22408580}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Cholera/*epidemiology ; Climate Change/*economics ; *Costs and Cost Analysis ; Humans ; Incidence ; Rain ; Seasons ; Tanzania/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail potentially serious consequences for human health, including an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. This study integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in Tanzania and uses socioeconomic data to control for the impacts of general development on the risk of cholera. The results show a significant relationship between temperature and the incidence of cholera. For a 1 degree Celsius temperature increase the initial relative risk of cholera increases by 15 to 29 percent. Based on the modeling results, we project the number and costs of additional cases of cholera that can be attributed to climate change by 2030 in Tanzania for a 1 and 2 degree increase in temperatures, respectively. The total costs of cholera attributable to climate change are shown to be in the range of 0.32 to 1.4 percent of GDP in Tanzania 2030. The results provide useful insights into national-level estimates of the implications of climate change on the health sector and offer information which can feed into both national and international debates on financing and planning adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid22404461, year = {2012}, author = {Ainsworth, EA and Yendrek, CR and Sitch, S and Collins, WJ and Emberson, LD}, title = {The effects of tropospheric ozone on net primary productivity and implications for climate change.}, journal = {Annual review of plant biology}, volume = {63}, number = {}, pages = {637-661}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-arplant-042110-103829}, pmid = {22404461}, issn = {1545-2123}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*toxicity ; Carbon/pharmacokinetics ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Oxidants, Photochemical/toxicity ; Ozone/*toxicity ; Photosynthesis/drug effects ; Plant Development/*drug effects ; Plant Leaves/drug effects/metabolism ; Plant Stomata/drug effects/metabolism ; Plants/*drug effects/*metabolism ; Poaceae/growth &amp; development ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Tropospheric ozone (O(3)) is a global air pollutant that causes billions of dollars in lost plant productivity annually. It is an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, and as a secondary air pollutant, it is present at high concentrations in rural areas far from industrial sources. It also reduces plant productivity by entering leaves through the stomata, generating other reactive oxygen species and causing oxidative stress, which in turn decreases photosynthesis, plant growth, and biomass accumulation. The deposition of O(3) into vegetation through stomata is an important sink for tropospheric O(3), but this sink is modified by other aspects of environmental change, including rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, rising temperature, altered precipitation, and nitrogen availability. We review the atmospheric chemistry governing tropospheric O(3) mass balance, the effects of O(3) on stomatal conductance and net primary productivity, and implications for agriculture, carbon sequestration, and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22404281, year = {2012}, author = {Spengler, JD}, title = {Climate change, indoor environments, and health.}, journal = {Indoor air}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {89-95}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0668.2012.00768.x}, pmid = {22404281}, issn = {1600-0668}, mesh = {Air Pollution, Indoor/*adverse effects ; Building Codes ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Housing ; Humans ; United States ; United States Environmental Protection Agency ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid22403575, year = {2012}, author = {Pester, M and Knorr, KH and Friedrich, MW and Wagner, M and Loy, A}, title = {Sulfate-reducing microorganisms in wetlands - fameless actors in carbon cycling and climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in microbiology}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {72}, pmid = {22403575}, issn = {1664-302X}, support = {P 18836/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; P 20185/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, abstract = {Freshwater wetlands are a major source of the greenhouse gas methane but at the same time can function as carbon sink. Their response to global warming and environmental pollution is one of the largest unknowns in the upcoming decades to centuries. In this review, we highlight the role of sulfate-reducing microorganisms (SRM) in the intertwined element cycles of wetlands. Although regarded primarily as methanogenic environments, biogeochemical studies have revealed a previously hidden sulfur cycle in wetlands that can sustain rapid renewal of the small standing pools of sulfate. Thus, dissimilatory sulfate reduction, which frequently occurs at rates comparable to marine surface sediments, can contribute up to 36-50% to anaerobic carbon mineralization in these ecosystems. Since sulfate reduction is thermodynamically favored relative to fermentative processes and methanogenesis, it effectively decreases gross methane production thereby mitigating the flux of methane to the atmosphere. However, very little is known about wetland SRM. Molecular analyses using dsrAB [encoding subunit A and B of the dissimilatory (bi)sulfite reductase] as marker genes demonstrated that members of novel phylogenetic lineages, which are unrelated to recognized SRM, dominate dsrAB richness and, if tested, are also abundant among the dsrAB-containing wetland microbiota. These discoveries point toward the existence of so far unknown SRM that are an important part of the autochthonous wetland microbiota. In addition to these numerically dominant microorganisms, a recent stable isotope probing study of SRM in a German peatland indicated that rare biosphere members might be highly active in situ and have a considerable stake in wetland sulfate reduction. The hidden sulfur cycle in wetlands and the fact that wetland SRM are not well represented by described SRM species explains their so far neglected role as important actors in carbon cycling and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22399656, year = {2012}, author = {Clarke, DN and Zani, PA}, title = {Effects of night-time warming on temperate ectotherm reproduction: potential fitness benefits of climate change for side-blotched lizards.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {215}, number = {Pt 7}, pages = {1117-1127}, doi = {10.1242/jeb065359}, pmid = {22399656}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Clutch Size ; *Darkness ; Embryo, Nonmammalian/physiology ; Female ; Genetic Fitness/*physiology ; Lizards/embryology/*physiology ; Male ; Reproduction/physiology ; Seasons ; Survival Analysis ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Temperate ectotherms, especially those at higher latitudes, are expected to benefit from climate warming, but few data yet exist to verify this prediction. Furthermore, most previous studies on the effects of climate change utilized a model of uniform annual change, which assumes that temperature increases are symmetric on diurnal or seasonal time scales. In this study, we simulated observed trends in the asymmetric alteration of diurnal temperature range by increasing night-time temperatures experienced by female lizards during their ovarian cycle as well as by the resulting eggs during their incubation. We found that higher night-time temperatures during the ovarian cycle increased the probability of reproductive success and decreased the duration of the reproductive cycle, but did not affect embryo stage or size at oviposition, clutch size, egg mass or relative clutch mass. Furthermore, higher incubation temperatures increased hatchling size and decreased incubation period but had no effect on incubation success. Subsequent hatchlings were more likely to survive winter if they hatched earlier, though our sample size of hatchlings was relatively small. These findings indicate that higher night-time temperatures mainly affect rate processes and that certain aspects of life history are less directly temperature dependent. As our findings confirm that climate warming is likely to increase the rate of development as well as advance reproductive phenology, we predict that warmer nights during the breeding season will increase reproductive output as well as subsequent survival in many temperate ectotherms, both of which should have positive fitness effects.}, }
@article {pmid22399649, year = {2012}, author = {Williams, JB and Muñoz-Garcia, A and Champagne, A}, title = {Climate change and cutaneous water loss of birds.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {215}, number = {Pt 7}, pages = {1053-1060}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.054395}, pmid = {22399649}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Lipids/chemistry ; Phenotype ; Skin Physiological Phenomena ; Water Loss, Insensible/*physiology ; }, abstract = {There is a crucial need to understand how physiological systems of animals will respond to increases in global air temperature. Water conservation may become more important for some species of birds, especially those living in deserts. Lipids of the stratum corneum (SC), the outer layer of the epidermis, create the barrier to water vapor diffusion, and thus control cutaneous water loss (CWL). An appreciation of the ability of birds to change CWL by altering lipids of the skin will be important to predict responses of birds to global warming. The interactions of these lipids are fundamental to the modulation of water loss through skin. Cerebrosides, with their hexose sugar moiety, are a key component of the SC in birds, but how these lipids interact with other lipids of the SC, or how they form hydrogen bonds with water molecules, to form a barrier to water vapor diffusion remains unknown. An understanding of how cerebrosides interact with other lipids of the SC, and of how the hydroxyl groups of cerebrosides interact with water molecules, may be a key to elucidating the control of CWL by the SC.}, }
@article {pmid22397086, year = {2011}, author = {Russill, C}, title = {Truth and opinion in climate change discourse: the Gore-Hansen disagreement.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {796-809}, doi = {10.1177/0963662510364201}, pmid = {22397086}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Computer Simulation ; Humans ; Mass Media ; Motion Pictures ; Policy ; *Politics ; *Science ; *Truth Disclosure ; }, abstract = {In this paper, I discuss the "inconvenient truth" strategy of Al Gore. I argue that Gore's notion of truth upholds a conception of science and policy that narrows our understanding of climate change discourse. In one notable exchange, Gore and NASA scientist, James Hansen, disagreed about whether scientific statements based on Hansen's computer simulations were truth or opinion. This exchange is featured in An Inconvenient Truth, yet the disagreement is edited from the film and presented simply as an instance of Hansen speaking "inconvenient truth". In this article, I compare the filmic representation of Hansen's testimony with the congressional record. I place their exchange in a broader historical perspective on climate change disputation in order to discuss the implications of Gore's perspective on truth.}, }
@article {pmid22397085, year = {2011}, author = {Ryghaug, M and Sørensen, KH and Naess, R}, title = {Making sense of global warming: Norwegians appropriating knowledge of anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {778-795}, doi = {10.1177/0963662510362657}, pmid = {22397085}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Focus Groups ; Global Warming ; Humans ; *Knowledge ; Male ; *Mass Media ; Norway ; Policy ; Politics ; }, abstract = {This paper studies how people reason about and make sense of human-made global warming, based on ten focus group interviews with Norwegian citizens. It shows that the domestication of climate science knowledge was shaped through five sense-making devices: news media coverage of changes in nature, particularly the weather, the coverage of presumed experts' disagreement about global warming, critical attitudes towards media, observations of political inaction, and considerations with respect to everyday life. These sense-making devices allowed for ambiguous outcomes, and the paper argues four main outcomes with respect to the domestication processes: the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain and the sceptics.}, }
@article {pmid22396726, year = {2012}, author = {Gardali, T and Seavy, NE and DiGaudio, RT and Comrack, LA}, title = {A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {e29507}, pmid = {22396726}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds ; California ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Risk Assessment ; Species Specificity ; Weather ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.}, }
@article {pmid22396100, year = {2012}, author = {Knight, J and Harrison, S}, title = {Evaluating the impacts of global warming on geomorphological systems.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41}, number = {2}, pages = {206-210}, pmid = {22396100}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Geological Phenomena ; *Global Warming ; Ice Cover ; }, }
@article {pmid22393524, year = {2011}, author = {Heide-Jørgensen, MP and Iversen, M and Nielsen, NH and Lockyer, C and Stern, H and Ribergaard, MH}, title = {Harbour porpoises respond to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {1}, number = {4}, pages = {579-585}, pmid = {22393524}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {The effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and in particular on marine top predators are difficult to assess due to, among other things, spatial variability, and lack of clear delineation of marine habitats. The banks of West Greenland are located in a climate sensitive area and are likely to elicit pronounced responses to oceanographic changes in the North Atlantic. The recent increase in sea temperatures on the banks of West Greenland has had cascading effects on sea ice coverage, residency of top predators, and abundance of important prey species like Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Here, we report on the response of one of the top predators in West Greenland; the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena). The porpoises depend on locating high densities of prey species with high nutritive value and they have apparently responded to the general warming on the banks of West Greenland by longer residence times, increased consumption of Atlantic cod resulting in improved body condition in the form of larger fat deposits in blubber, compared to the situation during a cold period in the 1990s. This is one of the few examples of a measurable effect of climate change on a marine mammal population.}, }
@article {pmid22393483, year = {2011}, author = {Loehle, C}, title = {Criteria for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems.}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {63-72}, pmid = {22393483}, issn = {2045-7758}, abstract = {There is concern about the potential impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. To address this concern, a large body of literature has developed in which these impacts are assessed. In this study, criteria for conducting reliable and useful assessments of impacts of future climate are suggested. The major decisions involve: clearly defining an emissions scenario; selecting a climate model; evaluating climate model skill and bias; quantifying General Circulation Model (GCM) between-model variability; selecting an ecosystem model and assessing uncertainty; properly considering transient versus equilibrium responses; including effects of CO(2) on plant response; evaluating implications of simplifying assumptions; and considering animal linkage with vegetation. A sample of the literature was surveyed in light of these criteria. Many of the studies used climate simulations that were >10 years old and not representative of best current models. Future effects of elevated CO(2) on plant drought resistance and productivity were generally included in growth model studies but not in niche (habitat suitability) studies, causing the latter to forecast greater future adverse impacts. Overly simplified spatial representation was frequent and caused the existence of refugia to be underestimated. Few studies compared multiple climate simulations and ecosystem models (including parametric uncertainty), leading to a false impression of precision and potentially arbitrary results due to high between-model variance. No study assessed climate model retrodictive skill or bias. Overall, most current studies fail to meet all of the proposed criteria. Suggestions for improving assessments are provided.}, }
@article {pmid22393354, year = {2012}, author = {Brucet, S and Boix, D and Nathansen, LW and Quintana, XD and Jensen, E and Balayla, D and Meerhoff, M and Jeppesen, E}, title = {Effects of temperature, salinity and fish in structuring the macroinvertebrate community in shallow lakes: implications for effects of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {e30877}, pmid = {22393354}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Denmark ; Fishes ; Invertebrates/physiology ; Lakes ; Mediterranean Region ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Predatory Behavior ; Regression Analysis ; Salts/chemistry ; Seawater ; Spain ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate warming may lead to changes in the trophic structure and diversity of shallow lakes as a combined effect of increased temperature and salinity and likely increased strength of trophic interactions. We investigated the potential effects of temperature, salinity and fish on the plant-associated macroinvertebrate community by introducing artificial plants in eight comparable shallow brackish lakes located in two climatic regions of contrasting temperature: cold-temperate and Mediterranean. In both regions, lakes covered a salinity gradient from freshwater to oligohaline waters. We undertook day and night-time sampling of macroinvertebrates associated with the artificial plants and fish and free-swimming macroinvertebrate predators within artificial plants and in pelagic areas. Our results showed marked differences in the trophic structure between cold and warm shallow lakes. Plant-associated macroinvertebrates and free-swimming macroinvertebrate predators were more abundant and the communities richer in species in the cold compared to the warm climate, most probably as a result of differences in fish predation pressure. Submerged plants in warm brackish lakes did not seem to counteract the effect of fish predation on macroinvertebrates to the same extent as in temperate freshwater lakes, since small fish were abundant and tended to aggregate within the macrophytes. The richness and abundance of most plant-associated macroinvertebrate taxa decreased with salinity. Despite the lower densities of plant-associated macroinvertebrates in the Mediterranean lakes, periphyton biomass was lower than in cold temperate systems, a fact that was mainly attributed to grazing and disturbance by fish. Our results suggest that, if the current process of warming entails higher chances of shallow lakes becoming warmer and more saline, climatic change may result in a decrease in macroinvertebrate species richness and abundance in shallow lakes.}, }
@article {pmid22392763, year = {2012}, author = {Busch, S and Kirillin, G and Mehner, T}, title = {Plasticity in habitat use determines metabolic response of fish to global warming in stratified lakes.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {170}, number = {1}, pages = {275-287}, pmid = {22392763}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation ; *Global Warming ; Lakes ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Salmonidae/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Zooplankton ; }, abstract = {We used a coupled lake physics and bioenergetics-based foraging model to evaluate how the plasticity in habitat use modifies the seasonal metabolic response of two sympatric cold-water fishes (vendace and Fontane cisco, Coregonus spp.) under a global warming scenario for the year 2100. In different simulations, the vertically migrating species performed either a plastic strategy (behavioral thermoregulation) by shifting their population depth at night to maintain the temperatures occupied at current in-situ observations, or a fixed strategy (no thermoregulation) by keeping their occupied depths at night but facing modified temperatures. The lake physics model predicted higher temperatures above 20 m and lower temperatures below 20 m in response to warming. Using temperature-zooplankton relationships, the density of zooplankton prey was predicted to increase at the surface, but to decrease in hypolimnetic waters. Simulating the fixed strategy, growth was enhanced only for the deeper-living cisco due to the shift in thermal regime at about 20 m. In contrast, simulating the plastic strategy, individual growth of cisco and young vendace was predicted to increase compared to growth currently observed in the lake. Only growth rates of older vendace are reduced under future global warming scenarios irrespective of the behavioral strategy. However, performing behavioral thermoregulation would drive both species into the same depth layers, and hence will erode vertical microhabitat segregation and intensify inter-specific competition between the coexisting coregonids.}, }
@article {pmid22391287, year = {2012}, author = {Brakoulias, V}, title = {Are we becoming obsessed about climate change?.}, journal = {The Australian and New Zealand journal of psychiatry}, volume = {46}, number = {3}, pages = {275-276}, doi = {10.1177/0004867412437176}, pmid = {22391287}, issn = {1440-1614}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder/*psychology ; }, }
@article {pmid22391284, year = {2012}, author = {Jones, MK and Wootton, BM and Vaccaro, LD and Menzies, RG}, title = {The impact of climate change on obsessive compulsive checking concerns.}, journal = {The Australian and New Zealand journal of psychiatry}, volume = {46}, number = {3}, pages = {265-270}, doi = {10.1177/0004867411433951}, pmid = {22391284}, issn = {1440-1614}, mesh = {Adult ; Age Factors ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Anxiety/psychology ; *Climate Change ; Depression/psychology ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder/*psychology ; Psychiatric Status Rating Scales/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Sex Characteristics ; Stress, Psychological/psychology ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether climate change has impacted on the nature of the obsessions or compulsions experienced by patients with obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD).<br><br>METHODS: The sample comprised 50 patients with OCD checking subtype who had presented at the Anxiety Disorders Clinic at The University of Sydney seeking treatment during the period March 2008 to November 2009. Details of the type of obsessions and compulsions directly related to climate change phenomena were identified.<br><br>RESULTS: Fourteen of the 50 participants (28%) were identified as having OCD concerns directly related to climate change. The most frequent concerns involved electricity, water and gas wastage. Less frequent concerns included pets dying of thirst and one participant was concerned about house damage due to floors cracking, pipes leaking; roof problems and white ant activity. Compulsions included checking and rechecking pet water bowls, light switches, taps, stoves, skirting boards, pipes, roofs and wooden structures. While these behaviours are not particularly unusual for people with this condition, it was the rationale they provided for carrying them out that was surprising. Instead of checking and rechecking so as to prevent fire or flood, the rituals were specifically performed so as to reduce their global footprint, or respond to climate change-induced negative events.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that the types of obsessions and compulsions experienced by 28% of our sample were directly aligned with the current issue of climate change and the perceived dangers associated with this phenomenon. To our knowledge this represents the first documentation of the significant impact of climate change on the nature of the concerns experienced by people with OCD checking subtype. We suggest that mental health professionals need to be aware of, and assess for the presence of such concerns.}, }
@article {pmid22390007, year = {2012}, author = {Cooke, L}, title = {Climate change: evidence or opinion.}, journal = {Australian nursing journal (July 1993)}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {3}, pmid = {22390007}, issn = {1320-3185}, mesh = {*Career Choice ; *Education, Nursing ; *Health Care Reform ; Humans ; *Mental Health Services ; *Nurse's Role ; Workforce ; }, }
@article {pmid22384585, year = {2011}, author = {Yang, XG and Li, Y and Dai, SW and Liu, ZJ and Wang, WF}, title = {[Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change: IX. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of China agricultural climate resources].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {12}, pages = {3177-3188}, pmid = {22384585}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; *Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Rain ; Temperature ; Water/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1961-2007 ground surface meteorological data from 558 meteorological stations in China, this paper analyzed the differences of agricultural climate resources in China different regions, and compared the change characteristics of the agricultural climate resources in 1961-1980 (period I) and 1981-2007 (period II), taking the year 1981 as the time node. As compared with period I, the mean annual temperature in China in period II increased by 0.6 degrees C, and the > or = 0 degrees C active accumulated temperature in the growth periods of chimonophilous crops and the > or = 10 degrees C active accumulated temperature in the growth periods of thermophilic crops increased averagely by 123.3 degrees C x d and 125.9 degrees C x d, respectively. In 1961-2007, the mean annual temperature increased most in Northeast China, and the > or = 10 degrees C active accumulated temperature in the growth periods of thermophilic crops increased most in South China. The whole year sunshine hours and the sunshine hours in the growth periods of chimonophilous crops and of thermophilic crops in period II decreased by 125.7 h, 32.2 h, and 53.6 h, respectively, compared with those in period I. In 1961-2007, the annual sunshine hours decreased most in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, while the sunshine hours in the growth periods of chimonophilous crops and of thermophilic crops decreased most in North China and South China, respectively. In the whole year and in the growth periods of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops, both the precipitation and the reference crop evapotranspiration in this country all showed a decreasing trend, with the largest decrement in the precipitation in the whole year and in the growth periods of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in North China, the largest decrement in the reference crop evapotranspiration in the whole year and in the growth periods of thermophilic crops in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, and the largest decrement in the reference crop evapotranspiration in the growth periods of chimonophilous crops in Northwest China. In 1961-2007, the climate in China in the whole year and in the growth periods of thermophilic crops showed an overall tendency of warm and dry, and the climate in the growth periods of thermophilic crops became warm and dry in Southwest China, North China, and Northeast China, but warm and wet in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, Northwest China, and South China, whereas the climate in the growth periods of chimonophilous crops became warm and dry in North China, but became warm and wet in Northwest China.}, }
@article {pmid22384244, year = {2012}, author = {Hartter, J and Stampone, MD and Ryan, SJ and Kirner, K and Chapman, CA and Goldman, A}, title = {Patterns and perceptions of climate change in a biodiversity conservation hotspot.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {e32408}, pmid = {22384244}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Food Supply ; Humans ; *Perception ; Public Opinion ; Rain ; Seasons ; Uganda ; }, abstract = {Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management.}, }
@article {pmid22384050, year = {2012}, author = {Hurlbert, AH and Liang, Z}, title = {Spatiotemporal variation in avian migration phenology: citizen science reveals effects of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {e31662}, pmid = {22384050}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Environment ; Geography ; North America ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3-6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing.}, }
@article {pmid22378743, year = {2012}, author = {Hof, C and Brändle, M and Dehling, DM and Munguía, M and Brandl, R and Araújo, MB and Rahbek, C}, title = {Habitat stability affects dispersal and the ability to track climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {639-643}, pmid = {22378743}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {*Animal Distribution ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Larva/physiology ; Models, Biological ; Odonata/classification/*physiology ; Phylogeny ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; ROC Curve ; }, abstract = {Habitat persistence should influence dispersal ability, selecting for stronger dispersal in habitats of lower temporal stability. As standing (lentic) freshwater habitats are on average less persistent over time than running (lotic) habitats, lentic species should show higher dispersal abilities than lotic species. Assuming that climate is an important determinant of species distributions, we hypothesize that lentic species should have distributions that are closer to equilibrium with current climate, and should more rapidly track climatic changes. We tested these hypotheses using datasets from 1988 and 2006 containing all European dragon- and damselfly species. Bioclimatic envelope models showed that lentic species were closer to climatic equilibrium than lotic species. Furthermore, the models over-predicted lotic species ranges more strongly than lentic species ranges, indicating that lentic species track climatic changes more rapidly than lotic species. These results are consistent with the proposed hypothesis that habitat persistence affects the evolution of dispersal.}, }
@article {pmid22378120, year = {2012}, author = {Smol, JP}, title = {Climate Change: A planet in flux.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {483}, number = {7387}, pages = {S12-5}, pmid = {22378120}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Anthozoa/physiology ; Arctic Regions ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Canada ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Coleoptera/physiology ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Diatoms/isolation &amp; purification ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Fossils ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Ice Cover ; Lakes/analysis/chemistry/microbiology ; Male ; }, }
@article {pmid22374453, year = {2013}, author = {Juszczak, R and Kuchar, L and Leśny, J and Olejnik, J}, title = {Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, pages = {31-44}, pmid = {22374453}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Larva/growth &amp; development ; *Models, Theoretical ; Moths/*growth &amp; development ; Poland ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the observed and predicted climate changes may affect the development rates and emergence of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used to generate temperature values for present and future climate conditions (time horizons 2020-2040 and 2040-2060). Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040-2060. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low temperature threshold (T(low)) of 0°C is considered and 91 DD per decade when T(low) = 10°C. The key developmental stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about 3.8-6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the second codling moth generation. This could increase the emergence probability of the pest third generation that has not currently occurred in Poland.}, }
@article {pmid22372840, year = {2012}, author = {La Sorte, FA and Jetz, W}, title = {Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {81}, number = {4}, pages = {914-925}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2012.01958.x}, pmid = {22372840}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Least-Squares Analysis ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation strategies in particular will benefit through identifying and maintaining dispersal corridors that accommodate diverging dispersal strategies and timetables.}, }
@article {pmid22372546, year = {2012}, author = {Kremer, A and Ronce, O and Robledo-Arnuncio, JJ and Guillaume, F and Bohrer, G and Nathan, R and Bridle, JR and Gomulkiewicz, R and Klein, EK and Ritland, K and Kuparinen, A and Gerber, S and Schueler, S}, title = {Long-distance gene flow and adaptation of forest trees to rapid climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {378-392}, pmid = {22372546}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Forests ; *Gene Flow ; Genetic Variation ; Inbreeding ; Models, Genetic ; Pollen ; Seed Dispersal ; Selection, Genetic ; Trees/*genetics/physiology ; }, abstract = {Forest trees are the dominant species in many parts of the world and predicting how they might respond to climate change is a vital global concern. Trees are capable of long-distance gene flow, which can promote adaptive evolution in novel environments by increasing genetic variation for fitness. It is unclear, however, if this can compensate for maladaptive effects of gene flow and for the long-generation times of trees. We critically review data on the extent of long-distance gene flow and summarise theory that allows us to predict evolutionary responses of trees to climate change. Estimates of long-distance gene flow based both on direct observations and on genetic methods provide evidence that genes can move over spatial scales larger than habitat shifts predicted under climate change within one generation. Both theoretical and empirical data suggest that the positive effects of gene flow on adaptation may dominate in many instances. The balance of positive to negative consequences of gene flow may, however, differ for leading edge, core and rear sections of forest distributions. We propose future experimental and theoretical research that would better integrate dispersal biology with evolutionary quantitative genetics and improve predictions of tree responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22371591, year = {2012}, author = {Rosen, AM and Rivera-Collazo, I}, title = {Climate change, adaptive cycles, and the persistence of foraging economies during the late Pleistocene/Holocene transition in the Levant.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {10}, pages = {3640-3645}, pmid = {22371591}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Ecosystem ; Fossils ; Geography ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; Israel ; Models, Theoretical ; Plants/*metabolism ; Poaceae ; Proteins/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Climatic forcing during the Younger Dryas (∼12.9-11.5 ky B.P.) event has become the theoretical basis to explain the origins of agricultural lifestyles in the Levant by suggesting a failure of foraging societies to adjust. This explanation however, does not fit the scarcity of data for predomestication cultivation in the Natufian Period. The resilience of Younger Dryas foragers is better illustrated by a concept of adaptive cycles within a theory of adaptive change (resilience theory). Such cycles consist of four phases: release/collapse (Ω); reorganization (α), when the system restructures itself after a catastrophic stimulus through innovation and social memory--a period of greater resilience and less vulnerability; exploitation (r); and conservation (K), representing an increasingly rigid system that loses flexibility to change. The Kebarans and Late Natufians had similar responses to cold and dry conditions vs. Early Natufians and the Pre-Pottery Neolithic A responses to warm and wet climates. Kebarans and Late Natufians (α-phase) shifted to a broader-based diet and increased their mobility. Early Natufian and Pre-Pottery Neolithic A populations (r- and K-phases) had a growing investment in more narrowly focused, high-yield plant resources, but they maintained the broad range of hunted animals because of increased sedentism. These human adaptive cycles interlocked with plant and animal cycles. Forest and grassland vegetation responded to late Pleistocene and early Holocene climatic fluctuations, but prey animal cycles reflected the impact of human hunting pressure. The combination of these three adaptive cycles results in a model of human adaptation, showing potential for great sustainability of Levantine foraging systems even under adverse climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid22369772, year = {2012}, author = {Sanz-Sáez, &#xc1; and Erice, G and Aguirreolea, J and Muñoz, F and Sánchez-Díaz, M and Irigoyen, JJ}, title = {Alfalfa forage digestibility, quality and yield under future climate change scenarios vary with Sinorhizobium meliloti strain.}, journal = {Journal of plant physiology}, volume = {169}, number = {8}, pages = {782-788}, doi = {10.1016/j.jplph.2012.01.010}, pmid = {22369772}, issn = {1618-1328}, mesh = {Animal Feed/*analysis/*microbiology ; Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Dietary Fiber/analysis ; Environmental Exposure ; Environmental Monitoring ; Medicago sativa/*chemistry/*microbiology ; Nitrogen Fixation/physiology ; Nutritive Value ; Plant Leaves/chemistry ; Plant Proteins/analysis ; Plant Shoots/chemistry ; Root Nodules, Plant/microbiology ; Sinorhizobium meliloti/*classification ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Elevated CO(2) may decrease alfalfa forage quality and in vitro digestibility through a drop in crude protein and an enhancement of fibre content. The aim of the present study was to analyse the effect of elevated CO(2), elevated temperature and Sinorhizobium meliloti strains (102F78, 102F34 and 1032 GMI) on alfalfa yield, forage quality and in vitro dry matter digestibility. This objective is in line with the selection of S. meliloti strains in order to maintain high forage yield and quality under future climate conditions. Plants inoculated with the 102F34 strain showed more DM production than those inoculated with 1032GMI; however, these strains did not show significant differences with 102F78 plants. Neutral or acid detergent fibres were not enhanced in plants inoculated with the 102F34 strain under elevated CO(2) or temperature and hence, in vitro dry matter digestibility was unaffected. Crude protein content, an indicator of forage quality, was negatively related to shoot yield. Plants inoculated with 102F78 showed a similar shoot yield to those inoculated with 102F34, but had higher crude protein content at elevated CO(2) and temperature. Under these climate change conditions, 102F78 inoculated plants produced higher quality forage. However, the higher digestibility of plants inoculated with the 102F34 strain under any CO(2) or temperature conditions makes them more suitable for growing under climate change conditions. In general, elevated CO(2) in combination with high temperature (Climate Change scenario) reduced IVDMD and CP content and enhanced fibre content, which means that animal production will be negatively affected.}, }
@article {pmid22367985, year = {2012}, author = {Silverstein, RN and Correa, AM and Baker, AC}, title = {Specificity is rarely absolute in coral-algal symbiosis: implications for coral response to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {279}, number = {1738}, pages = {2609-2618}, pmid = {22367985}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Alveolata/classification/*genetics/*physiology ; Animals ; Anthozoa/classification/*genetics/*physiology ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; *Ecosystem ; Phylogeny ; Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Species Specificity ; Symbiosis/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Some reef-building corals have been shown to respond to environmental change by shifting the composition of their algal symbiont (genus Symbiodinium) communities. These shifts have been proposed as a potential mechanism by which corals might survive climate stressors, such as increased temperatures. Conventional molecular methods suggest this adaptive capacity may not be widespread because few (∼25%) coral species have been found to associate with multiple Symbiodinium clades. However, these methods can fail to detect low abundance symbionts (typically less than 10-20% of the total algal symbiont community). To determine whether additional Symbiodinium clades are present, but are not detected using conventional techniques, we applied a high-resolution, real-time PCR assay to survey Symbiodinium (in clades A-D) from 39 species of phylogenetically and geographically diverse scleractinian corals. This survey included 26 coral species thought to be restricted to hosting a single Symbiodinium clade ('symbiotic specialists'). We detected at least two Symbiodinium clades (C and D) in at least one sample of all 39 coral species tested; all four Symbiodinium clades were detected in over half (54%) of the 26 symbiotic specialist coral species. Furthermore, on average, 68 per cent of all sampled colonies within a given coral species hosted two or more symbiont clades. We conclude that the ability to associate with multiple symbiont clades is common in scleractinian (stony) corals, and that, in coral-algal symbiosis, 'specificity' and 'flexibility' are relative terms: specificity is rarely absolute. The potential for reef corals to adapt or acclimatize to environmental change via symbiont community shifts may therefore be more phylogenetically widespread than has previously been assumed.}, }
@article {pmid22366978, year = {2012}, author = {Fuller, T and Bensch, S and Müller, I and Novembre, J and Pérez-Tris, J and Ricklefs, RE and Smith, TB and Waldenström, J}, title = {The ecology of emerging infectious diseases in migratory birds: an assessment of the role of climate change and priorities for future research.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {80-88}, pmid = {22366978}, issn = {1612-9210}, support = {1R01AI074059-01/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Bird Diseases/*transmission ; Birds ; Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control/*methods ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission/*veterinary ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*veterinary ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/*prevention &amp; control/*veterinary ; Humans ; Public Health ; Zoonoses/transmission ; }, abstract = {Pathogens that are maintained by wild birds occasionally jump to human hosts, causing considerable loss of life and disruption to global commerce. Preliminary evidence suggests that climate change and human movements and commerce may have played a role in recent range expansions of avian pathogens. Since the magnitude of climate change in the coming decades is predicted to exceed climatic changes in the recent past, there is an urgent need to determine the extent to which climate change may drive the spread of disease by avian migrants. In this review, we recommend actions intended to mitigate the impact of emergent pathogens of migratory birds on biodiversity and public health. Increased surveillance that builds upon existing bird banding networks is required to conclusively establish a link between climate and avian pathogens and to prevent pathogens with migratory bird reservoirs from spilling over to humans.}, }
@article {pmid22364117, year = {2012}, author = {Tissue, DT and Lewis, JD}, title = {Learning from the past: how low [CO2] studies inform plant and ecosystem response to future climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {194}, number = {1}, pages = {4-6}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04081.x}, pmid = {22364117}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; *Ice Cover ; Juniperus/*drug effects/*physiology ; *Tars ; Trees/*drug effects/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid22363006, year = {2012}, author = {Secord, R and Bloch, JI and Chester, SG and Boyer, DM and Wood, AR and Wing, SL and Kraus, MJ and McInerney, FA and Krigbaum, J}, title = {Evolution of the earliest horses driven by climate change in the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {335}, number = {6071}, pages = {959-962}, doi = {10.1126/science.1213859}, pmid = {22363006}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere ; *Biological Evolution ; Body Size ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Equidae/*anatomy &amp; histology ; *Fossils ; Global Warming ; Horses/*anatomy &amp; histology ; Humidity ; Oxygen Isotopes/analysis ; Temperature ; Wyoming ; }, abstract = {Body size plays a critical role in mammalian ecology and physiology. Previous research has shown that many mammals became smaller during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), but the timing and magnitude of that change relative to climate change have been unclear. A high-resolution record of continental climate and equid body size change shows a directional size decrease of ~30% over the first ~130,000 years of the PETM, followed by a ~76% increase in the recovery phase of the PETM. These size changes are negatively correlated with temperature inferred from oxygen isotopes in mammal teeth and were probably driven by shifts in temperature and possibly high atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. These findings could be important for understanding mammalian evolutionary responses to future global warming.}, }
@article {pmid22362993, year = {2012}, author = {Velders, GJ and Ravishankara, AR and Miller, MK and Molina, MJ and Alcamo, J and Daniel, JS and Fahey, DW and Montzka, SA and Reimann, S}, title = {Climate change. Preserving Montreal Protocol climate benefits by limiting HFCs.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {335}, number = {6071}, pages = {922-923}, doi = {10.1126/science.1216414}, pmid = {22362993}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22361150, year = {2012}, author = {Willmer, P}, title = {Ecology: pollinator-plant synchrony tested by climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {R131-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2012.01.009}, pmid = {22361150}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; Flowers/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Global Warming ; Insecta/*physiology ; Magnoliopsida/*growth &amp; development ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; *Pollination ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Flowering plants could lose their pollination service if climate warming potentially uncouples timing of flowering from pollinator availability. Recent evidence might suggest this effect may be less than feared.}, }
@article {pmid22358847, year = {2012}, author = {Thomas, CD and Williamson, M}, title = {Extinction and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {482}, number = {7386}, pages = {E4-5; author reply E5-6}, pmid = {22358847}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Models, Statistical ; }, abstract = {Arising from F. He &amp; S. P. Hubbell 473, 368-371 (2011). Statistical relationships between habitat area and the number of species observed (species-area relationships, SARs) are sometimes used to assess extinction risks following habitat destruction or loss of climatic suitability. He and Hubbell argue that the numbers of species confined to-rather than observed in-different areas (endemics-area relationships, EARs) should be used instead of SARs, and that SAR-based extinction estimates in the literature are too high. We suggest that He and Hubbell's SAR estimates are biased, that the empirical data they use are not appropriate to calculate extinction risks, and that their statements about extinction risks from climate change do not take into account non-SAR-based estimates or recent observations. Species have already responded to climate change in a manner consistent with high future extinction risks.}, }
@article {pmid22356622, year = {2012}, author = {Burger, C and Belskii, E and Eeva, T and Laaksonen, T and Mägi, M and Mänd, R and Qvarnström, A and Slagsvold, T and Veen, T and Visser, ME and Wiebe, KL and Wiley, C and Wright, J and Both, C}, title = {Climate change, breeding date and nestling diet: how temperature differentially affects seasonal changes in pied flycatcher diet depending on habitat variation.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {81}, number = {4}, pages = {926-936}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2012.01968.x}, pmid = {22356622}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Diet ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Food Chain ; Larva/physiology ; Lepidoptera/physiology ; *Reproduction ; Russia ; Seasons ; Songbirds/*physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {1. Climate warming has led to shifts in the seasonal timing of species. These shifts can differ across trophic levels, and as a result, predator phenology can get out of synchrony with prey phenology. This can have major consequences for predators such as population declines owing to low reproductive success. However, such trophic interactions are likely to differ between habitats, resulting in differential susceptibility of populations to increases in spring temperatures. A mismatch between breeding phenology and food abundance might be mitigated by dietary changes, but few studies have investigated this phenomenon. Here, we present data on nestling diets of nine different populations of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca, across their breeding range. This species has been shown to adjust its breeding phenology to local climate change, but sometimes insufficiently relative to the phenology of their presumed major prey: Lepidoptera larvae. In spring, such larvae have a pronounced peak in oak habitats, but to a much lesser extent in coniferous and other deciduous habitats. 2. We found strong seasonal declines in the proportions of caterpillars in the diet only for oak habitats, and not for the other forest types. The seasonal decline in oak habitats was most strongly observed in warmer years, indicating that potential mismatches were stronger in warmer years. However, in coniferous and other habitats, no such effect of spring temperature was found. 3. Chicks reached somewhat higher weights in broods provided with higher proportions of caterpillars, supporting the notion that caterpillars are an important food source and that the temporal match with the caterpillar peak may represent an important component of reproductive success. 4. We suggest that pied flycatchers breeding in oak habitats have greater need to adjust timing of breeding to rising spring temperatures, because of the strong seasonality in their food. Such between-habitat differences can have important consequences for population dynamics and should be taken into account in studies on phenotypic plasticity and adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22352161, year = {2011}, author = {Buckley, LB and Waaser, SA and MacLean, HJ and Fox, R}, title = {Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {92}, number = {12}, pages = {2214-2221}, doi = {10.1890/11-0066.1}, pmid = {22352161}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Larva/growth &amp; development ; *Models, Biological ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5 degrees C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.}, }
@article {pmid22345326, year = {2012}, author = {Linares, JC and Covelo, F and Carreira, JA and Merino, J&#xc1;}, title = {Phenological and water-use patterns underlying maximum growing season length at the highest elevations: implications under climate change.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {32}, number = {2}, pages = {161-170}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tps003}, pmid = {22345326}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {Abies/*metabolism/physiology ; *Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; Plant Stomata/physiology ; Seasons ; Water/*metabolism ; Xylem/metabolism/physiology ; }, abstract = {Consequences of climate change on tree phenology are readily observable, but little is known about the variations in phenological sensitivity to drought between populations within a species. In this study, we compare the phenological sensitivity to temperature and water availability in Abies pinsapo Boiss., a drought-sensitive Mediterranean fir, across its altitudinal distribution gradient. Twig growth and needle fall were related to temperature, precipitation and plant water status on a daily scale. Stands located at the top edge of the distributional range showed the most favourable water balance, maximum growth rates and little summer defoliation. Towards higher elevations, the observed delay in budburst date due to lower spring temperatures was overcome by a stronger delay in growth cessation date due to the later onset of strong water-deficit conditions in the summer. This explains an extended growing season and the greatest mean growth at the highest elevation. Conversely, lower predawn xylem water potentials and early partial stomatal closure and growth cessation were found in low-elevation A. pinsapo trees. An earlier and higher summer peak of A. pinsapo litterfall was also observed at these water-limited sites. Our results illustrate the ecophysiological background of the ongoing altitudinal shifts reported for this relict tree species under current climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid22343523, year = {2012}, author = {Liu, S and Zhang, L and Liu, Q and Zou, J}, title = {Fe(III) fertilization mitigating net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in paddy rice-wheat rotation systems in China.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {164}, number = {}, pages = {73-80}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2012.01.029}, pmid = {22343523}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Sequestration ; China ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation/*methods ; *Fertilizers ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Iron/*chemistry ; Methane/analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Oryza ; Triticum ; }, abstract = {A complete accounting of net greenhouse gas balance (NGHGB) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) affected by Fe(III) fertilizer application was examined in typical annual paddy rice-winter wheat rotation cropping systems in southeast China. Annual fluxes of soil carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) were measured using static chamber method, and the net ecosystem exchange of CO(2) (NEE) was determined by the difference between soil CO(2) emissions (R(H)) and net primary production (NPP). Fe(III) fertilizer application significantly decreased R(H) without adverse effects on NPP of rice and winter wheat. Fe(III) fertilizer application decreased seasonal CH(4) by 27-44%, but increased annual N(2)O by 65-100%. Overall, Fe(III) fertilizer application decreased the annual NGHGB and GHGI by 35-47% and 30-36%, respectively. High grain yield and low greenhouse gas intensity can be reconciled by Fe(III) fertilizer applied at the local recommendation rate in rice-based cropping systems.}, }
@article {pmid22334646, year = {2012}, author = {Nevo, E and Fu, YB and Pavlicek, T and Khalifa, S and Tavasi, M and Beiles, A}, title = {Evolution of wild cereals during 28 years of global warming in Israel.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {9}, pages = {3412-3415}, pmid = {22334646}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Biological Evolution ; DNA, Plant/genetics ; Edible Grain/*genetics ; Evolution, Molecular ; Genotype ; *Global Warming ; Hordeum/genetics ; Israel ; Phenotype ; Repetitive Sequences, Nucleic Acid ; Triticum/genetics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major environmental stress threatening biodiversity and human civilization. The best hope to secure staple food for humans and animal feed by future crop improvement depends on wild progenitors. We examined 10 wild emmer wheat (Triticum dicoccoides Koern.) populations and 10 wild barley (Hordeum spontaneum K. Koch) populations in Israel, sampling them in 1980 and again in 2008, and performed phenotypic and genotypic analyses on the collected samples. We witnessed the profound adaptive changes of these wild cereals in Israel over the last 28 y in flowering time and simple sequence repeat allelic turnover. The revealed evolutionary changes imply unrealized risks present in genetic resources for crop improvement and human food production.}, }
@article {pmid22331889, year = {2012}, author = {Bernal, S and Hedin, LO and Likens, GE and Gerber, S and Buso, DC}, title = {Complex response of the forest nitrogen cycle to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {9}, pages = {3406-3411}, pmid = {22331889}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; *Climate Change ; Denitrification ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forestry/methods ; Humans ; Longitudinal Studies ; Models, Biological ; New Hampshire ; Nitrates/analysis ; *Nitrogen Cycle ; Plant Development ; Plant Roots/metabolism ; Plants/metabolism ; Soil/chemistry ; Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; *Trees ; Water/chemistry ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate exerts a powerful influence on biological processes, but the effects of climate change on ecosystem nutrient flux and cycling are poorly resolved. Although rare, long-term records offer a unique opportunity to disentangle effects of climate from other anthropogenic influences. Here, we examine the longest and most complete record of watershed nutrient and climate dynamics available worldwide, which was collected at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the northeastern United States. We used empirical analyses and model calculations to distinguish between effects of climate change and past perturbations on the forest nitrogen (N) cycle. We find that climate alone cannot explain the occurrence of a dramatic >90% drop in watershed nitrate export over the past 46 y, despite longer growing seasons and higher soil temperatures. The strongest climate influence was an increase in soil temperature accompanied by a shift in paths of soil water flow within the watershed, but this effect explained, at best, only ∼40% of the nitrate decline. In contrast, at least 50-60% of the observed change in the N export could be explained by the long-lasting effect of forest cutting in the early 1900s on the N cycle of the soil and vegetation pools. Our analysis shows that historic events can obscure the influence of modern day stresses on the N cycle, even when analyses have the advantage of being informed by 0.5-century-long datasets. These findings raise fundamental questions about interpretations of long-term trends as a baseline for understanding how climate change influences complex ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid22331888, year = {2012}, author = {Near, TJ and Dornburg, A and Kuhn, KL and Eastman, JT and Pennington, JN and Patarnello, T and Zane, L and Fernández, DA and Jones, CD}, title = {Ancient climate change, antifreeze, and the evolutionary diversification of Antarctic fishes.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {9}, pages = {3434-3439}, pmid = {22331888}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Amino Acid Sequence ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Antifreeze Proteins/*genetics/physiology ; Bayes Theorem ; *Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; DNA/genetics ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Genetic Variation ; Likelihood Functions ; Oceans and Seas ; Perciformes/classification/genetics/*physiology ; Phylogeny ; Sequence Alignment ; }, abstract = {The Southern Ocean around Antarctica is among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, but has experienced episodic climate change during the past 40 million years. It remains unclear how ancient periods of climate change have shaped Antarctic biodiversity. The origin of antifreeze glycoproteins (AFGPs) in Antarctic notothenioid fishes has become a classic example of how the evolution of a key innovation in response to climate change can drive adaptive radiation. By using a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny of notothenioids and reconstructed paleoclimate, we demonstrate that the origin of AFGP occurred between 42 and 22 Ma, which includes a period of global cooling approximately 35 Ma. However, the most species-rich lineages diversified and evolved significant ecological differences at least 10 million years after the origin of AFGPs, during a second cooling event in the Late Miocene (11.6-5.3 Ma). This pattern indicates that AFGP was not the sole trigger of the notothenioid adaptive radiation. Instead, the bulk of the species richness and ecological diversity originated during the Late Miocene and into the Early Pliocene, a time coincident with the origin of polar conditions and increased ice activity in the Southern Ocean. Our results challenge the current understanding of the evolution of Antarctic notothenioids suggesting that the ecological opportunity that underlies this adaptive radiation is not linked to a single trait, but rather to a combination of freeze avoidance offered by AFGPs and subsequent exploitation of new habitats and open niches created by increased glacial and ice sheet activity.}, }
@article {pmid22329928, year = {2012}, author = {Gilg, O and Kovacs, KM and Aars, J and Fort, J and Gauthier, G and Grémillet, D and Ims, RA and Meltofte, H and Moreau, J and Post, E and Schmidt, NM and Yannic, G and Bollache, L}, title = {Climate change and the ecology and evolution of Arctic vertebrates.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1249}, number = {}, pages = {166-190}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2011.06412.x}, pmid = {22329928}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; Arctic Regions ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Ice Cover ; Population Dynamics ; *Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {Climate change is taking place more rapidly and severely in the Arctic than anywhere on the globe, exposing Arctic vertebrates to a host of impacts. Changes in the cryosphere dominate the physical changes that already affect these animals, but increasing air temperatures, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification will also affect Arctic ecosystems in the future. Adaptation via natural selection is problematic in such a rapidly changing environment. Adjustment via phenotypic plasticity is therefore likely to dominate Arctic vertebrate responses in the short term, and many such adjustments have already been documented. Changes in phenology and range will occur for most species but will only partly mitigate climate change impacts, which are particularly difficult to forecast due to the many interactions within and between trophic levels. Even though Arctic species richness is increasing via immigration from the South, many Arctic vertebrates are expected to become increasingly threatened during this century.}, }
@article {pmid22329888, year = {2012}, author = {Hellmann, JJ and Prior, KM and Pelini, SL}, title = {The influence of species interactions on geographic range change under climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1249}, number = {}, pages = {18-28}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2011.06410.x}, pmid = {22329888}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Fossils ; Geography ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The fossil record tells us that many species shifted their geographic distributions during historic climate changes, but this record does not portray the complete picture of future range change in response to climate change. In particular, it does not provide information on how species interactions will affect range shifts. Therefore, we also need modern research to generate understanding of range change. This paper focuses on the role that species interactions play in promoting or preventing geographic ranges shifts under current and future climate change, and we illustrate key points using empirical case studies from an integrated study system. Case studies can have limited generalizability, but they are critical to defining possible outcomes under climate change. Our case studies emphasize host limitation that could reduce range shifts and enemy release that could facilitate range expansion. We also need improvements in modeling that explicitly consider species interactions, and this modeling can be informed by empirical research. Finally, we discuss how species interactions have implications for range management by people.}, }
@article {pmid22329091, year = {2011}, author = {McCormick, J}, title = {Climate change as settled as germ theory.}, journal = {Australian nursing journal (July 1993)}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {4}, pmid = {22329091}, issn = {1320-3185}, mesh = {*Career Choice ; *Education, Nursing ; *Health Care Reform ; Humans ; *Mental Health Services ; *Nurse's Role ; Workforce ; }, }
@article {pmid22326825, year = {2012}, author = {Mahbub, P and Goonetilleke, A and Ayoko, GA}, title = {Prediction of the wash-off of traffic related semi- and non-volatile organic compounds from urban roads under climate change influenced rainfall characteristics.}, journal = {Journal of hazardous materials}, volume = {213-214}, number = {}, pages = {83-92}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhazmat.2012.01.062}, pmid = {22326825}, issn = {1873-3336}, mesh = {Calibration ; Climate ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Factor Analysis, Statistical ; Forecasting ; Particle Size ; Principal Component Analysis ; *Rain ; Reproducibility of Results ; Volatile Organic Compounds/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Traffic generated semi- and non-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs and NVOCs) pose a serious threat to human and ecosystem health when washed off into receiving water bodies by stormwater. Climate change influenced rainfall characteristics makes the estimation of these pollutants in stormwater quite complex. The research study discussed in the paper developed a prediction framework for such pollutants under the dynamic influence of climate change on rainfall characteristics. It was established through principal component analysis (PCA) that the intensity and durations of low to moderate rain events induced by climate change mainly affect the wash-off of SVOCs and NVOCs from urban roads. The study outcomes were able to overcome the limitations of stringent laboratory preparation of calibration matrices by extracting uncorrelated underlying factors in the data matrices through systematic application of PCA and factor analysis (FA). Based on the initial findings from PCA and FA, the framework incorporated orthogonal rotatable central composite experimental design to set up calibration matrices and partial least square regression to identify significant variables in predicting the target SVOCs and NVOCs in four particulate fractions ranging from >300 to 1 μm and one dissolved fraction of <1 μm. For the particulate fractions in >300-1 μm range, similar distributions of predicted and observed concentrations of the target compounds from minimum to 75th percentile were achieved. The inter-event coefficient of variations for particulate fractions of >300-1 μm was 5-25%. The limited solubility of the target compounds in stormwater restricted the predictive capacity of the proposed method for the dissolved fraction of <1 μm.}, }
@article {pmid22325585, year = {2012}, author = {Sovacool, BK and D'Agostino, AL and Meenawat, H and Rawlani, A}, title = {Expert views of climate change adaptation in least developed Asia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {97}, number = {}, pages = {78-88}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.11.005}, pmid = {22325585}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Asia ; Climate Change/*economics ; Humans ; Organizations ; *Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Drawing primarily from original data collected from more than 100 semi-structured research interviews, this study discusses the benefits of four climate change adaptation projects being implemented in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, and the Maldives. The article begins by explaining its research methods and selecting a sample of Global Environment Facility-Least Developed Country Fund projects being implemented in Asia to analyze. It then describes ongoing adaptation efforts in each of these four countries. It finds that projects enhance infrastructural resilience by building relevant, robust, and flexible technologies. They build institutional resilience by creating strong, permanent, legitimate organizations in place to respond to climate change issues. They promote community resilience by enhancing local ownership, building capacity, and creating networks that help ordinary people learn and adapt to climate change. We find that all four of our case studies couple adaptive improvements in technology and infrastructure with those in governance and community welfare, underscoring the holistic or systemic aspect of resilience. Our study also demonstrates the salience of a functions-based approach to resilience and adaptive capacity rather than an asset-based one.}, }
@article {pmid22325430, year = {2012}, author = {Susca, T}, title = {Enhancement of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to include the effect of surface albedo on climate change: Comparing black and white roofs.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {163}, number = {}, pages = {48-54}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2011.12.019}, pmid = {22325430}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Color ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Housing/*classification/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Sunlight ; Surface Properties ; }, abstract = {Traditionally, life cycle assessment (LCA) does not estimate a key property: surface albedo. Here an enhancement of the LCA methodology has been proposed through the development and employment of a time-dependent climatological model for including the effect of surface albedo on climate. The theoretical findings derived by the time-dependent model have been applied to the case study of a black and a white roof evaluated in the time-frames of 50 and 100 years focusing on the impact on global warming potential. The comparative life cycle impact assessment of the two roofs shows that the high surface albedo plays a crucial role in offsetting radiative forcings. In the 50-year time horizon, surface albedo is responsible for a decrease in CO(2)eq of 110-184 kg and 131-217 kg in 100 years. Furthermore, the white roof compared to the black roof, due to the high albedo, decreases the annual energy use of about 3.6-4.5 kWh/m(2).}, }
@article {pmid22324775, year = {2012}, author = {Rabinovich, A and Morton, TA}, title = {Unquestioned answers or unanswered questions: beliefs about science guide responses to uncertainty in climate change risk communication.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {992-1002}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01771.x}, pmid = {22324775}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Climate Change ; Communication ; Comprehension ; *Culture ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Public Opinion ; Regression Analysis ; Risk ; Science ; *Uncertainty ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {In two experimental studies we investigated the effect of beliefs about the nature and purpose of science (classical vs. Kuhnian models of science) on responses to uncertainty in scientific messages about climate change risk. The results revealed a significant interaction between both measured (Study 1) and manipulated (Study 2) beliefs about science and the level of communicated uncertainty on willingness to act in line with the message. Specifically, messages that communicated high uncertainty were more persuasive for participants who shared an understanding of science as debate than for those who believed that science is a search for absolute truth. In addition, participants who had a concept of science as debate were more motivated by higher (rather than lower) uncertainty in climate change messages. The results suggest that achieving alignment between the general public's beliefs about science and the style of the scientific messages is crucial for successful risk communication in science. Accordingly, rather than uncertainty always undermining the effectiveness of science communication, uncertainty can enhance message effects when it fits the audience's understanding of what science is.}, }
@article {pmid22320421, year = {2012}, author = {Afrane, YA and Githeko, AK and Yan, G}, title = {The ecology of Anopheles mosquitoes under climate change: case studies from the effects of deforestation in East African highlands.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1249}, number = {}, pages = {204-210}, pmid = {22320421}, issn = {1749-6632}, support = {D43 TW001505/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI050243/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI094580/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Africa, Eastern ; Animals ; *Anopheles/parasitology/pathogenicity/virology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/parasitology/pathogenicity/virology ; Malaria/transmission ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to lead to latitudinal and altitudinal temperature increases. High-elevation regions such as the highlands of Africa and those that have temperate climate are most likely to be affected. The highlands of Africa generally exhibit low ambient temperatures. This restricts the distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes, the vectors of malaria, filariasis, and O'nyong'nyong fever. The development and survival of larval and adult mosquitoes are temperature dependent, as are mosquito biting frequency and pathogen development rate. Given that various Anopheles species are adapted to different climatic conditions, changes in climate could lead to changes in species composition in an area that may change the dynamics of mosquito-borne disease transmission. It is important to consider the effect of climate change on rainfall, which is critical to the formation and persistence of mosquito breeding sites. In addition, environmental changes such as deforestation could increase local temperatures in the highlands; this could enhance the vectorial capacity of the Anopheles. These experimental data will be invaluable in facilitating the understanding of the impact of climate change on Anopheles.}, }
@article {pmid22318516, year = {2012}, author = {Bamber, J}, title = {Climate change: Shrinking glaciers under scrutiny.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {482}, number = {7386}, pages = {482-483}, pmid = {22318516}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid22308456, year = {2012}, author = {Nevo, E}, title = {"Evolution Canyon," a potential microscale monitor of global warming across life.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {8}, pages = {2960-2965}, pmid = {22308456}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/radiation effects ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; DNA Repair/radiation effects ; Droughts ; *Global Warming ; Israel ; Melanins/metabolism ; *Models, Biological ; Stress, Physiological/radiation effects ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climatic change and stress is a major driving force of evolution. The effects of climate change on living organisms have been shown primarily on regional and global scales. Here I propose the "Evolution Canyon" (EC) microscale model as a potential life monitor of global warming in Israel and the rest of the world. The EC model reveals evolution in action at a microscale involving biodiversity divergence, adaptation, and incipient sympatric speciation across life from viruses and bacteria through fungi, plants, and animals. The EC consists of two abutting slopes separated, on average, by 200 m. The tropical, xeric, savannoid, "African" south-facing slope (AS = SFS) abuts the forested "European" north-facing slope (ES = NFS). The AS receives 200-800% higher solar radiation than the ES. The ES represents the south European forested maquis. The AS and ES exhibit drought and shade stress, respectively. Major adaptations on the AS are because of solar radiation, heat, and drought, whereas those on the ES relate to light stress and photosynthesis. Preliminary evidence suggests the extinction of some European species on the ES and AS. In Drosophila, a 10-fold higher migration was recorded in 2003 from the AS to ES. I advance some predictions that could be followed in diverse species in EC. The EC microclimatic model is optimal to track global warming at a microscale across life from viruses and bacteria to mammals in Israel, and in additional ECs across the planet.}, }
@article {pmid22307421, year = {2012}, author = {Berberian, G and Rosanova, MT}, title = {[Impact of climate change on infectious diseases].}, journal = {Archivos argentinos de pediatria}, volume = {110}, number = {1}, pages = {39-45}, doi = {10.5546/aap.2012.39}, pmid = {22307421}, issn = {1668-3501}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Infections in humans are related with changes in the environment specially those associated with food, water, and vectors. Changes in the environment are also related to epidemics, however this relationship has not been clarified, and multiple factors additional to climate changes may be involved in the pathogenesis of epidemics. Therefore, several predictive epidemiological models have been developed with the aim to determine the degree of sensitivity of different diseases to climate changes, and their association with outbreaks to plan prevention strategies.}, }
@article {pmid22301311, year = {2012}, author = {Rodbell, DT}, title = {Climate change. Marching in near lock-step.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {335}, number = {6068}, pages = {548-549}, doi = {10.1126/science.1218365}, pmid = {22301311}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22291226, year = {2012}, author = {Iizumi, T and Semenov, MA and Nishimori, M and Ishigooka, Y and Kuwagata, T}, title = {ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {370}, number = {1962}, pages = {1121-1139}, pmid = {22291226}, issn = {1364-503X}, support = {BBS/E/C/00004938/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Databases, Factual ; Japan ; }, abstract = {We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981-2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile-quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081-2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan.}, }
@article {pmid22286293, year = {2012}, author = {Carr, JL and Sheffield, PE and Kinney, PL}, title = {Preparedness for climate change among local health department officials in New York state: a comparison with national survey results.}, journal = {Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {E24-32}, pmid = {22286293}, issn = {1550-5022}, support = {T32 HD049311/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disaster Planning ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; *Local Government ; New York ; }, abstract = {CONTEXT: Climate-change adaptation strategies that address locally specific climate hazards are critical for preventing negative health outcomes, and local public health care officials are key foci for adaptation planning.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To assess New York State Local Health Department officials' perceptions and preparedness related to climate-sensitive health areas, and compare these with a national sample.<br><br>DESIGN: Online survey instrument, originally used in a national survey of local health department (LHD) officials.<br><br>SETTING: New York State.<br><br>PARTICIPANTS: Eligible participants included all New York State city and county LHD officials, 1 respondent per LHD.<br><br>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: LHD officials' perceptions of (1) local climate-related public health effects, (2) preparation status and programming areas of LHDs, and (3) necessary resources to better address climate-related health risks.<br><br>RESULTS: : Survey participants, representing a 54% response rate (with 93% of respondents completing more than 90% of the questions), perceived climate change as relevant to public health, and most noted that some of their existing programs already use or are planning to use climate adaptation strategies. Overall, fewer New York State respondents identified concerns or related expertise compared with the previous national survey. Many respondents expressed uncertainty regarding necessary additional resources.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This type of assessment makes clear the high variability in perceived impacts and capacity at the level of LHD jurisdictions, and underscores the importance of sustained support for local climate-change preparedness programming. The implications of these findings are germane to other states with similar decentralized jurisdiction of public health. Findings from such surveys can bolster existing LHD programs, as well as inform long-term and emergency planning for climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22284981, year = {2012}, author = {Sinha, R and Pearson, LA and Davis, TW and Burford, MA and Orr, PT and Neilan, BA}, title = {Increased incidence of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in temperate zones--is climate change responsible?.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {1408-1419}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2011.12.019}, pmid = {22284981}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Cylindrospermopsis/*growth &amp; development ; Environment ; *Eutrophication ; Geography ; *Global Warming ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {The bloom-forming, toxic cyanobacterium, Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii exhibits global distribution. In recent years both the occurrence and dominance of this species, particularly in temperate regions, has increased. Whilst this may be due to increased sensitivity of analytical detection methods or more rigorous sampling routines, it is possible that this expansion has been assisted by a number of changing conditions in these environments. The geographical expansion of both the organism and toxin production can be attributed to phenomena such as eutrophication and climate change. In this review, we discuss the occurrence of C. raciborskii with respect to current literature against the backdrop of increasing global temperatures. Critically, we identify a concerning trend between the geographical spread of this organism and global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22279621, year = {2012}, author = {,  and Andrady, AL and Aucamp, PJ and Austin, AT and Bais, AF and Ballaré, CL and Björn, LO and Bornman, JF and Caldwell, M and Cullen, AP and Erickson, DJ and de Gruijl, FR and Häder, DP and He, W and Ilyas, M and Longstreth, J and Lucas, R and McKenzie, RL and Madronich, S and Norval, M and Paul, ND and Redhwi, HH and Robinson, S and Shao, M and Solomon, KR and Sulzberger, B and Takizawa, Y and Tang, X and Torikai, A and van der Leun, JC and Williamson, CE and Wilson, SR and Worrest, RC and Zepp, RG}, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2011.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {13-27}, doi = {10.1039/c1pp90033a}, pmid = {22279621}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Ozone/*analysis ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {The parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with two focal issues. The first focus is the effects of increased UV radiation on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The second focus is on interactions between UV radiation and global climate change and how these may affect humans and the environment. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than believed previously. As a result of this, human health and environmental problems will be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other panels, the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was published in 2010 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2011, 10, 173-300). In the years in between, the EEAP produces less detailed and shorter progress reports, which highlight and assess the significance of developments in key areas of importance to the parties. The next full quadrennial report will be published in 2014-2015.}, }
@article {pmid22279164, year = {2012}, author = {Wright, LI and Stokes, KL and Fuller, WJ and Godley, BJ and McGowan, A and Snape, R and Tregenza, T and Broderick, AC}, title = {Turtle mating patterns buffer against disruptive effects of climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {279}, number = {1736}, pages = {2122-2127}, pmid = {22279164}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cyprus ; Endangered Species ; Female ; Male ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Sex Determination Processes ; Sex Ratio ; Sexual Behavior, Animal/*physiology ; Spacecraft ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {For organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), skewed offspring sex ratios are common. However, climate warming poses the unique threat of producing extreme sex ratio biases that could ultimately lead to population extinctions. In marine turtles, highly female-skewed hatchling sex ratios already occur and predicted increases in global temperatures are expected to exacerbate this trend, unless species can adapt. However, it is not known whether offspring sex ratios persist into adulthood, or whether variation in male mating success intensifies the impact of a shortage of males on effective population size. Here, we use parentage analysis to show that in a rookery of the endangered green turtle (Chelonia mydas), despite an offspring sex ratio of 95 per cent females, there were at least 1.4 reproductive males to every breeding female. Our results suggest that male reproductive intervals may be shorter than the 2-4 years typical for females, and/or that males move between aggregations of receptive females, an inference supported by our satellite tracking, which shows that male turtles may visit multiple rookeries. We suggest that male mating patterns have the potential to buffer the disruptive effects of climate change on marine turtle populations, many of which are already seriously threatened.}, }
@article {pmid22272964, year = {2011}, author = {Myers, J and Young, T and Galloway, M and Manyike, P and Tucker, T}, title = {Responding to climate change in southern Africa - the role of research.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {101}, number = {11}, pages = {820-822}, pmid = {22272964}, issn = {0256-9574}, mesh = {Africa, Southern ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Research ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Projections show that the effects of climate change in Africa will not be uniform over the region. The region is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change because of poverty, a high pre-existing disease burden, fragmented health services and existing water and food insecurity. Despite the consensus that locally relevant information is necessary to inform policy and practice related to climate change, very few studies assessing the association between climate change and health in southern Africa have been conducted. More complete information is therefore urgently needed for the southern African region to estimate the health risks from projected future changes in climate.}, }
@article {pmid22272963, year = {2011}, author = {Myers, J and Young, T and Galloway, M and Manyike, P and Tucker, T}, title = {A public health approach to the impact of climate change on health in southern Africa - identifying priority modifiable risks.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {101}, number = {11}, pages = {817-820}, pmid = {22272963}, issn = {0256-9574}, mesh = {Africa, Southern ; Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Global Health ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mental Health ; Occupational Health ; *Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change and anticipated adverse impacts on human health as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are taken as given. A conceptual model for thinking about the spectrum of climate-related health risks ranging from distal and infrastructural to proximal and behavioural and their relation to the burden of disease pattern typical of sub-Saharan Africa is provided. The model provides a tool for identifying modifiable risk factors with a view to future research, specifically into the performance of interventions to reduce the impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22272738, year = {2012}, author = {Galant, A and Koester, RP and Ainsworth, EA and Hicks, LM and Jez, JM}, title = {From climate change to molecular response: redox proteomics of ozone-induced responses in soybean.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {194}, number = {1}, pages = {220-229}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.04037.x}, pmid = {22272738}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Electrophoresis, Gel, Two-Dimensional ; Immunoblotting ; Oxidation-Reduction/drug effects ; Ozone/*pharmacology ; Plant Leaves/drug effects/metabolism ; Plant Proteins/metabolism ; Plant Roots/drug effects/metabolism ; Proteome/metabolism ; Proteomics/*methods ; Ribulose-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/metabolism ; Glycine max/*drug effects/*metabolism ; Staining and Labeling ; }, abstract = {• Ozone (O3) causes significant agricultural losses, with soybean (Glycine max) being highly sensitive to this oxidant. Here we assess the effect of elevated seasonal O3 exposure on the total and redox proteomes of soybean. • To understand the molecular responses to O3 exposure, soybean grown at the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment facility under ambient (37 ppb), moderate (58 ppb), and high (116 ppb) O3 concentrations was examined by redox-sensitive thiol labeling, mass spectrometry, and targeted enzyme assays. • Proteomic analysis of soybean leaf tissue exposed to high O3 concentrations reveals widespread changes. In the high-O3 treatment leaf, 35 proteins increased up to fivefold in abundance, 22 proteins showed up to fivefold higher oxidation, and 22 proteins increased in both abundance and oxidation. These changes occurred in carbon metabolism, photosynthesis, amino acid synthesis, flavonoid and isoprenoid biosynthesis, signaling and homeostasis, and antioxidant pathways. • This study shows that seasonal O3 exposure in soybean alters the abundance and oxidation state of redox-sensitive multiple proteins and that these changes reflect a combination of damage effects and adaptive responses that influence a wide range of metabolic processes, which in some cases may help mitigate oxidative stress.}, }
@article {pmid22270708, year = {2012}, author = {Hoel, AH and Olsen, E}, title = {Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {85-95}, pmid = {22270708}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Humans ; Marine Biology ; Norway ; Oceans and Seas ; *Population Dynamics ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/toxicity ; }, abstract = {The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.}, }
@article {pmid22266739, year = {2012}, author = {McMichael, C and Barnett, J and McMichael, AJ}, title = {An ill wind? Climate change, migration, and health.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {5}, pages = {646-654}, pmid = {22266739}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Emigration and Immigration ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response.<br><br>METHODS: This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate-change-related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22265251, year = {2012}, author = {Newcombe, G and Chorus, I and Falconer, I and Lin, TF}, title = {Cyanobacteria: impacts of climate change on occurrence, toxicity and water quality management.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {1347-1348}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2011.12.047}, pmid = {22265251}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Bacterial Toxins ; *Climate Change ; *Cyanobacteria/physiology ; Cyanobacteria Toxins ; Marine Toxins ; Microcystins ; Water Microbiology ; *Water Quality ; Water Supply/standards ; }, }
@article {pmid22262348, year = {2012}, author = {Klimešová, J and Prach, K and Bernardová, A}, title = {Using available information to assess the potential effects of climate change on vegetation in the High Arctic: north Billjefjorden, central Spitsbergen (Svalbard).}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {41}, number = {5}, pages = {435-445}, pmid = {22262348}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Plant Development ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {We review the available data that can be used to assess the potential impact of climate change on vegetation, and we use central Spitsbergen, Svalbard, as a model location for the High Arctic. We used two sources of information: recent and short-term historical records, which enable assessment on scales of particular plant communities and the landscape over a period of decades, and palynological and macrofossil analyses, which enable assessment on time scales of hundreds and thousands of years and on the spatial scale of the landscape. Both of these substitutes for standardized monitoring revealed stability of vegetation, which is probably attributable to the harsh conditions and the distance of the area from sources of diaspores of potential new incomers. The only evident recent vegetation changes related to climate change are associated with succession after glacial retreats. By establishing a network of permanent plots, researchers will be able to monitor immigration of new species from diversity 'hot spots' and from an abandoned settlement nearby. This will greatly enhance our ability to understand the effects of climate change on vegetation in the High Arctic.}, }
@article {pmid22257223, year = {2012}, author = {Bellard, C and Bertelsmeier, C and Leadley, P and Thuiller, W and Courchamp, F}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {365-377}, pmid = {22257223}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {281422/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.}, }
@article {pmid22249591, year = {2011}, author = {Roldán García, E and Gómez Barrera, M and Pino Otín, MR and Esteban Pradas, M and Díaz Jiménez, J}, title = {[Determination of isothermal areas and selection of representative weather stations in Aragon as a basis for estimating the impact of climate change on the possible relationship between mortality and temperature].}, journal = {Revista espanola de salud publica}, volume = {85}, number = {6}, pages = {603-610}, doi = {10.1590/S1135-57272011120000009}, pmid = {22249591}, issn = {2173-9110}, mesh = {*Climate Change/mortality ; Cluster Analysis ; Cold Temperature/adverse effects ; Discriminant Analysis ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Spain ; *Temperature ; Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In extensive and diversified regions, such as Aragon, it is believed the need to divide them into areas in terms of the available atmospheric variables with a view to select a representative weather station. The objective of this study was to determine the existence of isothermal regions and select representative stations for Aragon in order to carry out further study on the correlation between variables of temperature and daily mortality.<br><br>METHODS: Daily data on maximum and minimum temperature for the period between January 1987 and December 2006 was selected. In order to determine the isothermal areas a cluster analysis and a discriminate factor analysis were carried out along with a data pretreatment of filled gaps and detection of inhomogeneities in the climatic series. We analyzed data from 93 stations (44 in Huesca, 15 in Teruel and 34 in Zaragoza).<br><br>RESULTS: The results of the analysis for the regionalization of Aragon lead us to conclude that a unique factor explains the variance of each series; at high temperatures one factor explains 93.43% of the variance and the station with the highest correlation factor is Monflorite-Huesca (correlation = 0.984). At low temperatures one factor explains 90.88% of the variance, with Monegros-Pallaruelo being the station that presents the greatest correlation factor (correlation = 0.976).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: It was felt that Aragon was a unique isothermal region with one unique representative station of the temperature variability, Zaragoza-Airport with a correlation of 0.980 in maximum temperatures and 0.974 minimum.}, }
@article {pmid22246768, year = {2012}, author = {Shindell, D and Kuylenstierna, JC and Vignati, E and van Dingenen, R and Amann, M and Klimont, Z and Anenberg, SC and Muller, N and Janssens-Maenhout, G and Raes, F and Schwartz, J and Faluvegi, G and Pozzoli, L and Kupiainen, K and Höglund-Isaksson, L and Emberson, L and Streets, D and Ramanathan, V and Hicks, K and Oanh, NT and Milly, G and Williams, M and Demkine, V and Fowler, D}, title = {Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {335}, number = {6065}, pages = {183-189}, doi = {10.1126/science.1210026}, pmid = {22246768}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Aerosols ; *Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; *Food Supply ; *Health ; Humans ; *Methane/analysis ; Mortality, Premature ; *Ozone/analysis ; *Soot/analysis ; }, abstract = {Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than $250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide-reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.}, }
@article {pmid22244968, year = {2012}, author = {Elliott, JA}, title = {Is the future blue-green? A review of the current model predictions of how climate change could affect pelagic freshwater cyanobacteria.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {1364-1371}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2011.12.018}, pmid = {22244968}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Animals ; Bacterial Toxins/toxicity ; Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Cyanobacteria Toxins ; Eutrophication ; Fresh Water/chemistry/*microbiology ; Humans ; Lakes/microbiology ; Marine Toxins/toxicity ; Microcystins/toxicity ; Models, Biological ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen Fixation ; Phytoplankton ; }, abstract = {There is increasing evidence that recent changes in climate have had an effect on lake phytoplankton communities and it has been suggested that it is likely that Cyanobacteria will increase in relative abundance under the predicted future climate. However, testing such a qualitative prediction is challenging and usually requires some form of numerical computer model. Therefore, the lake modelling literature was reviewed for studies that examined the impact of climate change upon Cyanobacteria. These studies, taken collectively, generally show an increase in relative Cyanobacteria abundance with increasing water temperature, decreased flushing rate and increased nutrient loads. Furthermore, they suggest that whilst the direct effects of climate change on the lakes can change the timing of bloom events and Cyanobacteria abundance, the amount of phytoplankton biomass produced over a year is not enhanced directly by these changes. Also, warmer waters in the spring increased nutrient consumption by the phytoplankton community which in some lakes caused nitrogen limitation later in the year to the advantage of some nitrogen-fixing Cyanobacteria. Finally, it is also possible that an increase in Cyanobacteria dominance of the phytoplankton biomass will lead to poorer energy flow to higher trophic levels due to their relatively poor edibility for zooplankton.}, }
@article {pmid22242115, year = {2011}, author = {Nguyen, KD and Morley, SA and Lai, CH and Clark, MS and Tan, KS and Bates, AE and Peck, LS}, title = {Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {e29340}, pmid = {22242115}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*physiology ; Body Size ; Ecosystem ; Feeding Behavior/physiology ; *Global Warming ; Linear Models ; Movement/physiology ; *Seawater ; Singapore ; Species Specificity ; *Temperature ; *Tropical Climate ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1), the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.}, }
@article {pmid22239116, year = {2012}, author = {Roy, SB and Chen, L and Girvetz, EH and Maurer, EP and Mills, WB and Grieb, TM}, title = {Projecting water withdrawal and supply for future decades in the U.S. under climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {2545-2556}, doi = {10.1021/es2030774}, pmid = {22239116}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation/trends ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/trends ; *Forecasting ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Risk Factors ; United States ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The sustainability of water resources in future decades is likely to be affected by increases in water demand due to population growth, increases in power generation, and climate change. This study presents water withdrawal projections in the United States (U.S.) in 2050 as a result of projected population increases and power generation at the county level as well as the availability of local renewable water supplies. The growth scenario assumes the per capita water use rate for municipal withdrawals to remain at 2005 levels and the water use rates for new thermoelectric plants at levels in modern closed-loop cooling systems. In projecting renewable water supply in future years, median projected monthly precipitation and temperature by sixteen climate models were used to derive available precipitation in 2050 (averaged over 2040-2059). Withdrawals and available precipitation were compared to identify regions that use a large fraction of their renewable local water supply. A water supply sustainability risk index that takes into account additional attributes such as susceptibility to drought, growth in water withdrawal, increased need for storage, and groundwater use was developed to evaluate areas at greater risk. Based on the ranking by the index, high risk areas can be assessed in more mechanistic detail in future work.}, }
@article {pmid22238786, year = {2011}, author = {Kovats, S}, title = {Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition, with Sari Kovats by Ashley Ahearn.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {12}, pages = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.trp120111}, pmid = {22238786}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology ; Asia/epidemiology ; Child Nutrition Disorders/complications/*epidemiology ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Growth and Development/*physiology ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid22238591, year = {2012}, author = {Johnston, DW and Bowers, MT and Friedlaender, AS and Lavigne, DM}, title = {The effects of climate change on harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {e29158}, pmid = {22238591}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Newborn ; *Climate Change/mortality ; Geography ; Ice Cover ; North Sea ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/physiology ; Seals, Earless/*physiology ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) have evolved life history strategies to exploit seasonal sea ice as a breeding platform. As such, individuals are prepared to deal with fluctuations in the quantity and quality of ice in their breeding areas. It remains unclear, however, how shifts in climate may affect seal populations. The present study assesses the effects of climate change on harp seals through three linked analyses. First, we tested the effects of short-term climate variability on young-of-the year harp seal mortality using a linear regression of sea ice cover in the Gulf of St. Lawrence against stranding rates of dead harp seals in the region during 1992 to 2010. A similar regression of stranding rates and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values was also conducted. These analyses revealed negative correlations between both ice cover and NAO conditions and seal mortality, indicating that lighter ice cover and lower NAO values result in higher mortality. A retrospective cross-correlation analysis of NAO conditions and sea ice cover from 1978 to 2011 revealed that NAO-related changes in sea ice may have contributed to the depletion of seals on the east coast of Canada during 1950 to 1972, and to their recovery during 1973 to 2000. This historical retrospective also reveals opposite links between neonatal mortality in harp seals in the Northeast Atlantic and NAO phase. Finally, an assessment of the long-term trends in sea ice cover in the breeding regions of harp seals across the entire North Atlantic during 1979 through 2011 using multiple linear regression models and mixed effects linear regression models revealed that sea ice cover in all harp seal breeding regions has been declining by as much as 6 percent per decade over the time series of available satellite data.}, }
@article {pmid22236490, year = {2012}, author = {Haque, MA and Yamamoto, SS and Malik, AA and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Households' perception of climate change and human health risks: a community perspective.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {1}, pmid = {22236490}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {Adult ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Data Collection ; Family Characteristics ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Male ; Rain ; Risk ; Rural Population ; Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Bangladesh has been identified as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world concerning the adverse effects of climate change (CC). However, little is known about the perception of CC from the community, which is important for developing adaptation strategies.<br><br>METHODS: The study was a cross-sectional survey of respondents from two villages--one from the northern part and the other from the southern part of Bangladesh. A total of 450 households were selected randomly through multistage sampling completed a semi-structure questionnaire. This was supplemented with 12 focus group discussions (FGDs) and 15 key informant interviews (KIIs).<br><br>RESULTS: Over 95 percent of the respondents reported that the heat during the summers had increased and 80.2 percent reported that rainfall had decreased, compared to their previous experiences. Approximately 65 percent reported that winters were warmer than in previous years but they still experienced very erratic and severe cold during the winter for about 5-7 days, which restricted their activities with very destructive effect on agricultural production, everyday life and the health of people. FGDs and KIIs also reported that overall winters were warmer. Eighty point two percent, 72.5 percent and 54.7 percent survey respondents perceived that the frequency of water, heat and cold related diseases/health problems, respectively, had increased compared to five to ten years ago. FGDs and KIIs respondents were also reported the same.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Respondents had clear perceptions about changes in heat, cold and rainfall that had occurred over the last five to ten years. Local perceptions of climate variability (CV) included increased heat, overall warmer winters, reduced rainfall and fewer floods. The effects of CV were mostly negative in terms of means of living, human health, agriculture and overall livelihoods. Most local perceptions on CV are consistent with the evidence regarding the vulnerability of Bangladesh to CC. Such findings can be used to formulate appropriate sector programs and interventions. The systematic collection of such information will allow scientists, researchers and policy makers to design and implement appropriate adaptation strategies for CC in countries that are especially vulnerable.}, }
@article {pmid22232684, year = {2012}, author = {Grassini, P and Cassman, KG}, title = {High-yield maize with large net energy yield and small global warming intensity.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {4}, pages = {1074-1079}, pmid = {22232684}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation/methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Agriculture/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Databases, Factual ; Fertilizers/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Nebraska ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis/metabolism ; Soil/*analysis ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Addressing concerns about future food supply and climate change requires management practices that maximize productivity per unit of arable land while reducing negative environmental impact. On-farm data were evaluated to assess energy balance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of irrigated maize in Nebraska that received large nitrogen (N) fertilizer (183 kg of N · ha(-1)) and irrigation water inputs (272 mm or 2,720 m(3) ha(-1)). Although energy inputs (30 GJ · ha(-1)) were larger than those reported for US maize systems in previous studies, irrigated maize in central Nebraska achieved higher grain and net energy yields (13.2 Mg · ha(-1) and 159 GJ · ha(-1), respectively) and lower GHG-emission intensity (231 kg of CO(2)e · Mg(-1) of grain). Greater input-use efficiencies, especially for N fertilizer, were responsible for better performance of these irrigated systems, compared with much lower-yielding, mostly rainfed maize systems in previous studies. Large variation in energy inputs and GHG emissions across irrigated fields in the present study resulted from differences in applied irrigation water amount and imbalances between applied N inputs and crop N demand, indicating potential to further improve environmental performance through better management of these inputs. Observed variation in N-use efficiency, at any level of applied N inputs, suggests that an N-balance approach may be more appropriate for estimating soil N(2)O emissions than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change approach based on a fixed proportion of applied N. Negative correlation between GHG-emission intensity and net energy yield supports the proposition that achieving high yields, large positive energy balance, and low GHG emissions in intensive cropping systems are not conflicting goals.}, }
@article {pmid22224116, year = {2011}, author = {Poursafa, P and Kelishadi, R}, title = {What health professionals should know about the health effects of air pollution and climate change on children and pregnant mothers.}, journal = {Iranian journal of nursing and midwifery research}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {257-264}, pmid = {22224116}, issn = {2228-5504}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Health professionals face the adverse health effects of climate change and air pollution in their practices. This review underscores the effects of these environmental factors on maternal and children's health, as the most vulnerable groups to climate change and air pollution.<br><br>METHODS: We reviewed electronic databases for a search of the literature to find relevant studies published in English from 1990 to 2011.<br><br>RESULTS: Environmental factors, notably climate change and air pollution influence children's health before conception and continue during pregnancy, childhood, and adolescence. Experts have suggested that such health hazards may represent the greatest public health challenge that humanity has faced. The accumulation of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, primarily from burning fossil fuels, results in warming which has an impact on air pollution particularly on levels of ozone and particulates. Heat-related health effects include increased rates of pregnancy complications, pre-eclampsia, eclampsia, low birth weight, renal effects, vector-borne diseases as malaria and dengue, increased diarrheal and respiratory disease, food insecurity, decreased quality of foods (notably grains), malnutrition, water scarcity, exposures to toxic chemicals, worsened poverty, natural disasters and population displacement. Air pollution has many adverse health effects for mothers and children. In addition to short-term effects like premature labour, intrauterine growth retardation, neonatal and infant mortality rate, malignancies (notably leukaemia and Hodgkin lymphoma), respiratory diseases, allergic disorders and anaemia, exposure to criteria air pollutants from early life might be associated with increase in stress oxidative, inflammation and endothelial dysfunction which in turn might have long-term effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Health professionals have an exclusive capability to help prevent and reduce the harmful effects of environmental factors for high-risk groups, and should consider this capacity in their usual practice.}, }
@article {pmid22218547, year = {2012}, author = {Soares, FV and Greve, P and Sendín, FA and Benze, BG and de Castro, AP and Rebelatto, JR}, title = {[Relationship between climate change and determinant factors of mortality among the elderly in the municipality of São Carlos (São Paulo, Brazil) over a period of ten years].}, journal = {Ciencia &amp; saude coletiva}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {135-146}, doi = {10.1590/s1413-81232012000100016}, pmid = {22218547}, issn = {1678-4561}, mesh = {Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Brazil ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Geriatrics ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mortality/*trends ; Risk Factors ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The aim of this study was to identify the correlation between the number of deaths of elderly people and climate change in the district of São Carlos (SP) over a period of 10 years (1997-2006). Records of deaths were obtained from DATASUS for people aged over 60 who died between 1997 and 2006 in São Carlos. The average monthly maximum and minimum temperature data and relative air humidity in São Carlos were provided by the National Institute of Meteorology. The mortality coefficient of the district was calculated by gender and age and the resulting data were analyzed using t test, one-way ANOVA, the Bonferroni test and the Pearson correlation coefficient test. There were 8,304 deaths which predominantly occurred among males aged over 80, and diseases of the circulatory system were the main cause of death. There was a positive correlation between mortality by infectious disease and minimum humidity, and a negative correlation between mortality by infectious diseases and minimum temperatures, between mortality caused by respiratory disease and minimum humidity, between mortality caused by endocrine disease and minimum and maximum temperature. Thereby, it was possible to conclude that there was a correlation between climate change and mortality among elderly individuals in São Carlos.}, }
@article {pmid22217725, year = {2012}, author = {Alsos, IG and Ehrich, D and Thuiller, W and Eidesen, PB and Tribsch, A and Schönswetter, P and Lagaye, C and Taberlet, P and Brochmann, C}, title = {Genetic consequences of climate change for northern plants.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {279}, number = {1735}, pages = {2042-2051}, pmid = {22217725}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Genetic Variation ; Plants/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Climate change will lead to loss of range for many species, and thus to loss of genetic diversity crucial for their long-term persistence. We analysed range-wide genetic diversity (amplified fragment length polymorphisms) in 9581 samples from 1200 populations of 27 northern plant species, to assess genetic consequences of range reduction and potential association with species traits. We used species distribution modelling (SDM, eight techniques, two global circulation models and two emission scenarios) to predict loss of range and genetic diversity by 2080. Loss of genetic diversity varied considerably among species, and this variation could be explained by dispersal adaptation (up to 57%) and by genetic differentiation among populations (F(ST); up to 61%). Herbs lacking adaptations for long-distance dispersal were estimated to lose genetic diversity at higher rate than dwarf shrubs adapted to long-distance dispersal. The expected range reduction in these 27 northern species was larger than reported for temperate plants, and all were predicted to lose genetic diversity according to at least one scenario. SDM combined with F(ST) estimates and/or with species trait information thus allows the prediction of species' vulnerability to climate change, aiding rational prioritization of conservation efforts.}, }
@article {pmid22217718, year = {2012}, author = {Urban, MC and Tewksbury, JJ and Sheldon, KS}, title = {On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {279}, number = {1735}, pages = {2072-2080}, pmid = {22217718}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Competitive Behavior ; Computer Simulation ; *Extinction, Biological ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences decreased diversity and produced so-called 'no-analogue' communities, defined as a novel combination of species that does not currently co-occur. Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, when mean community-wide dispersal rates were low and when species differed in dispersal abilities. With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction. Overall, competition slowed the advance of colonists into newly suitable habitats, creating lags in climate tracking. We predict that climate change will most threaten communities of species that have narrow niches (e.g. tropics), vary in dispersal (most communities) and compete strongly. Current forecasts probably underestimate climate change impacts on biodiversity by neglecting competition and dispersal differences.}, }
@article {pmid22216340, year = {2011}, author = {Canning-Clode, J and Fowler, AE and Byers, JE and Carlton, JT and Ruiz, GM}, title = {'Caribbean Creep' chills out: climate change and marine invasive species.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {e29657}, pmid = {22216340}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Caribbean Region ; *Climate Change ; *Marine Biology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: New marine invasions have been recorded in increasing numbers along the world's coasts due in part to the warming of the oceans and the ability of many invasive marine species to tolerate a broader thermal range than native species. Several marine invertebrate species have invaded the U.S. southern and mid-Atlantic coast from the Caribbean and this poleward range expansion has been termed 'Caribbean Creep'. While models have predicted the continued decline of global biodiversity over the next 100 years due to global climate change, few studies have examined the episodic impacts of prolonged cold events that could impact species range expansions.<br><br>A pronounced cold spell occurred in January 2010 in the U.S. southern and mid-Atlantic coast and resulted in the mortality of several terrestrial and marine species. To experimentally test whether cold-water temperatures may have caused the disappearance of one species of the 'Caribbean Creep' we exposed the non-native crab Petrolisthes armatus to different thermal treatments that mimicked abnormal and severe winter temperatures. Our findings indicate that Petrolisthes armatus cannot tolerate prolonged and extreme cold temperatures (4-6 &#xb0;C) and suggest that aperiodic cold winters may be a critical 'reset' mechanism that will limit the range expansion of other 'Caribbean Creep' species.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We suggest that temperature 'aberrations' such as 'cold snaps' are an important and overlooked part of climate change. These climate fluctuations should be accounted for in future studies and models, particularly with reference to introduced subtropical and tropical species and predictions of both rates of invasion and rates of unidirectional geographic expansion.}, }
@article {pmid22211934, year = {2011}, author = {}, title = {Responding to climate change in New York State: the ClimAID integrated assessment for effective climate change adaptation in New York State. Final report.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1244}, number = {}, pages = {2-149}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2011.06331.x}, pmid = {22211934}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; New York ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already beginning to affect New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the ability to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for and respond to climate risks now and in the future. The ClimAID assessment provides information on climate change impacts and adaptation for eight sectors in New York State: water resources, coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation,telecommunications, and public health. Observed climate trends and future climate projections were developed for seven regions across the state. Within each of the sectors, climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies are identified. Integrating themes across all of the sectors are equity and environmental justice and economics.Case studies are used to examine specific vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in each of the eight sectors. These case studies also illustrate the linkages among climate vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation, and demonstrate specific monitoring needs. Stakeholder participation was critical to the ClimAID assessment process to ensure relevance to decision makers across the state.}, }
@article {pmid22211004, year = {2011}, author = {Haberl, H and Erb, KH and Krausmann, F and Bondeau, A and Lauk, C and Müller, C and Plutzar, C and Steinberger, JK}, title = {Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields.}, journal = {Biomass &amp; bioenergy}, volume = {35}, number = {12}, pages = {4753-4769}, pmid = {22211004}, issn = {0961-9534}, abstract = {There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a "food first" approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO(2) on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161 EJ y(-1), depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply.}, }
@article {pmid22203974, year = {2012}, author = {Figueirido, B and Janis, CM and Pérez-Claros, JA and De Renzi, M and Palmqvist, P}, title = {Cenozoic climate change influences mammalian evolutionary dynamics.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {109}, number = {3}, pages = {722-727}, pmid = {22203974}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Climate Change/*history ; Factor Analysis, Statistical ; History, Ancient ; Mammals/*anatomy &amp; histology ; North America ; Oxygen Isotopes ; Regression Analysis ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is having profound impacts on the natural world. However, climate influence on faunal dynamics at macroevolutionary scales remains poorly understood. In this paper we investigate the influence of climate over deep time on the diversity patterns of Cenozoic North American mammals. We use factor analysis to identify temporally correlated assemblages of taxa, or major evolutionary faunas that we can then study in relation to climatic change over the past 65 million years. These taxa can be grouped into six consecutive faunal associations that show some correspondence with the qualitative mammalian chronofaunas of previous workers. We also show that the diversity pattern of most of these chronofaunas can be correlated with the stacked deep-sea benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) curve, which strongly suggests climatic forcing of faunal dynamics over a large macroevolutionary timescale. This study demonstrates the profound influence of climate on the diversity patterns of North American terrestrial mammals over the Cenozoic.}, }
@article {pmid22200945, year = {2012}, author = {Wang, T and Sun, JG and Han, H and Yan, CZ}, title = {The relative role of climate change and human activities in the desertification process in Yulin region of northwest China.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {184}, number = {12}, pages = {7165-7173}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-011-2488-6}, pmid = {22200945}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollution/analysis/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {To overcome the shortcoming of existing studies, this paper put forward a statistical vegetation-climate relationship model with integrated temporal and spatial characteristics. Based on this model, we quantitatively discriminated on the grid scale the relative role of climate change and human activities in the desertification dynamics from 1986 to 2000 in Yulin region. Yulin region's desertification development occurred mainly in the southern hilly and gully area and its reverse in the northwest sand and marsh area. This spatial pattern was especially evident and has never changed thoroughly. From the first time section (1986-1990) to the second (1991-1995), the desertification was developing as a whole, and either in the desertification development district or in the reverse district human activities' role was always occupying an overwhelmingly dominant position (they were 98.7% and 101.4%, respectively), the role of climate change was extremely slight. From the second time section (1991-1995) to the third (1996-2000), the desertification process was reaching a state of stability, in the desertification development district the role of climate change was nearly equivalent to that of human activities (they were 46.2% and 53.8% separately), and yet in the desertification reverse district, the role of human activities came up to 119.0%, the role of climate change amounted to -19.0%. In addition, the relative role of climate change and human activities possessed great spatial heterogeneity. The above conclusion rather coincides with the qualitative analysis in many literatures, which indicates that this method has certain rationality and can be utilized as a reference for the monitoring and studying of desertification in other areas.}, }
@article {pmid22197291, year = {2012}, author = {Haines, A}, title = {Sustainable policies to improve health and prevent climate change.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {74}, number = {5}, pages = {680-683}, doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2011.12.008}, pmid = {22197291}, issn = {1873-5347}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Health Resources ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Policy Making ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid22192244, year = {2012}, author = {Mashayekh, Y and Jaramillo, P and Samaras, C and Hendrickson, CT and Blackhurst, M and MacLean, HL and Matthews, HS}, title = {Potentials for sustainable transportation in cities to alleviate climate change impacts.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {2529-2537}, doi = {10.1021/es203353q}, pmid = {22192244}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Renewable Energy ; *Transportation ; Vehicle Emissions/analysis ; }, abstract = {Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) is an important social goal to mitigate climate change. A common mitigation paradigm is to consider strategy "wedges" that can be applied to different activities to achieve desired GHG reductions. In this policy analysis piece, we consider a wide range of possible strategies to reduce light-duty vehicle GHG emissions, including fuel and vehicle options, low carbon and renewable power, travel demand management and land use changes. We conclude that no one strategy will be sufficient to meet GHG emissions reduction goals to avoid climate change. However, many of these changes have positive combinatorial effects, so the best strategy is to pursue combinations of transportation GHG reduction strategies to meet reduction goals. Agencies need to broaden their agendas to incorporate such combination in their planning.}, }
@article {pmid22190019, year = {2012}, author = {Zhang, T and Huang, Y}, title = {Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008.}, journal = {Journal of the science of food and agriculture}, volume = {92}, number = {8}, pages = {1643-1652}, doi = {10.1002/jsfa.5523}, pmid = {22190019}, issn = {1097-0010}, mesh = {*Biomass ; China ; *Climate ; *Climatic Processes ; Droughts ; Edible Grain/*growth &amp; development ; Food Supply ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Oryza/growth &amp; development ; Rain ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Triticum/growth &amp; development ; Water ; *Weather ; Zea mays/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Negative climate impacts on crop yield increase pressures on food security in China. In this study, climatic impacts on cereal yields (rice, wheat and maize) were investigated by analyzing climate-yield relationships from 1980 to 2008.<br><br>RESULTS: Results indicated that warming was significant, but trends in precipitation and solar radiation were not statistically significant in most of China. In general, maize is particularly sensitive to warming. However, increase in temperature was correlated with both lower and higher yield of rice and wheat, which is inconsistent with the current view that warming results in decline in yields. Of the three cereal crops, further analysis suggested that reduction in yields with higher temperature is accompanied by lower precipitation, which mainly occurred in northern parts of China, suggesting droughts reduced yield due to lack of water resources. Similarly, a positive correlation between temperature and yield can be alternatively explained by the effect of solar radiation, mainly in the southern part of China where water resources are abundant.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Overall, our study suggests that it is inter-annual variations in precipitation and solar radiation that have driven change in cereal yields in China over the last three decades.}, }
@article {pmid22184147, year = {2012}, author = {Chapman, PM}, title = {Global climate change and risk assessment: invasive species.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {199-200}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.1253}, pmid = {22184147}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; *Ecosystem ; *Introduced Species ; Risk Assessment ; Species Specificity ; }, }
@article {pmid22183746, year = {2012}, author = {Morillo, CA}, title = {Cryoballoon ablation as first-line therapy of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: dusk of global warming and the dawn of a new ice age era?.}, journal = {Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {153-154}, doi = {10.1093/europace/eur388}, pmid = {22183746}, issn = {1532-2092}, mesh = {Angioplasty, Balloon/*methods ; Atrial Fibrillation/*surgery ; Cryosurgery/*methods ; Female ; Heart Conduction System/*surgery ; Humans ; Pulmonary Veins/*surgery ; }, }
@article {pmid22182533, year = {2010}, author = {Hu, G and Xie, MC and Lin, ZX and Xin, DY and Huang, CY and Chen, W and Zhang, XX and Zhai, BP}, title = {Are outbreaks of Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) associated with global warming?.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {39}, number = {6}, pages = {1705-1714}, doi = {10.1603/EN09214}, pmid = {22182533}, issn = {1938-2936}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Hemiptera ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Outbreaks of the Nilaparvata lugens (Stål), have occurred frequently in China during the past few years, resulting in a broad and significant reduction in rice yield. N. lugens immigrate into China each spring from Southeast Asia, and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is the first area affected. Light trap catches for the early season period (March-June) in Guangxi for the past 30 yr have been analyzed, and the catch sequences for five observation stations (Longzhou, Hepu, Yongning Yongfu, and Quanzhou) were studied in detail. It was found that during the past 10 yr the first appearance of N. lugens at light traps occurs earlier, there is a higher frequency of days with large light-trap catches, and catches in southern Guangxi are larger. Recently light-trap catches have also increased in northern Guangxi. It is concluded that the increasing number of immigrants from overseas is one of the primary reasons for the increase in N. lugens outbreaks in the past 10 yr. Global warming, and specifically winter temperature increases, appears to be for a factor accelerating outbreaks of N. lugens in Asia.}, }
@article {pmid22180932, year = {2011}, author = {Hall, A}, title = {Getting REDD-y: conservation and climate change in Latin America.}, journal = {Latin American research review}, volume = {46}, number = {}, pages = {184-210}, doi = {10.1353/lar.2011.0039}, pmid = {22180932}, issn = {0023-8791}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants/economics/history ; *Climate Change/economics/history ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Developing Countries/economics/history ; Economics/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Government Programs/economics/education/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Greenhouse Effect/economics/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Latin America/ethnology ; *Public Health/economics/education/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {Deforestation in Latin America, especially in the Amazon basin, is a major source of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide that contribute to global warming. Protected areas play a vital role in minimizing forest loss and in supplying key environmental services, including carbon sequestration and rainfall regulation, which mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change amid a rising tide of economic development in the region. The area of protected forest has expanded rapidly since 1980 to cover one-fifth of Latin America and more than two-fifths of Amazonia, a region whose rain forest captures some 40 percent of Latin America's carbon emissions. The reserve sector has traditionally suffered from severe underfunding, but the possibility of new resources being generated through financial compensation for "reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation" (REDD) or "avoided deforestation" under a new Kyoto protocol after 2012 could help strengthen the environmental and social roles of protected areas. However, a number of major implementation and governance challenges will need to be addressed.}, }
@article {pmid22178489, year = {2012}, author = {Hong, J}, title = {Uncertainty propagation in life cycle assessment of biodiesel versus diesel: global warming and non-renewable energy.}, journal = {Bioresource technology}, volume = {113}, number = {}, pages = {3-7}, doi = {10.1016/j.biortech.2011.11.107}, pmid = {22178489}, issn = {1873-2976}, mesh = {*Biofuels ; Decision Making ; *Gasoline ; *Global Warming ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Uncertainty information is essential for the proper use of life cycle assessment and environmental assessments in decision making. To investigate the uncertainties of biodiesel and determine the level of confidence in the assertion that biodiesel is more environmentally friendly than diesel, an explicit analytical approach based on the Taylor series expansion for lognormal distribution was applied in the present study. A biodiesel case study demonstrates the probability that biodiesel has a lower global warming and non-renewable energy score than diesel, that is 92.3% and 93.1%, respectively. The results indicate the level of confidence in the assertion that biodiesel is more environmentally friendly than diesel based on the global warming and non-renewable energy scores.}, }
@article {pmid22178305, year = {2012}, author = {El-Shehawy, R and Gorokhova, E and Fernández-Piñas, F and del Campo, FF}, title = {Global warming and hepatotoxin production by cyanobacteria: what can we learn from experiments?.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {1420-1429}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2011.11.021}, pmid = {22178305}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Bacterial Toxins/*biosynthesis ; Chemical and Drug Induced Liver Injury/*etiology ; Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria ; Cyanobacteria Toxins ; Food Chain ; Global Warming ; Harmful Algal Bloom ; Humans ; Marine Toxins/*biosynthesis ; Microcystins/*biosynthesis/physiology/toxicity ; }, abstract = {Global temperature is expected to rise throughout this century, and blooms of cyanobacteria in lakes and estuaries are predicted to increase with the current level of global warming. The potential environmental, economic and sanitation repercussions of these blooms have attracted considerable attention among the world's scientific communities, water management agencies and general public. Of particular concern is the worldwide occurrence of hepatotoxic cyanobacteria posing a serious threat to global public health. Here, we highlight plausible effects of global warming on physiological and molecular changes in these cyanobacteria and resulting effects on hepatotoxin production. We also emphasize the importance of understanding the natural biological function(s) of hepatotoxins, various mechanisms governing their synthesis, and climate-driven changes in food-web interactions, if we are to predict consequences of the current and projected levels of global warming for production and accumulation of hepatotoxins in aquatic ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid22177903, year = {2012}, author = {Scordato, ES and Bontrager, AL and Price, TD}, title = {Cross-generational effects of climate change on expression of a sexually selected trait.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {78-82}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2011.11.044}, pmid = {22177903}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cohort Effect ; Feathers ; Female ; Gene-Environment Interaction ; Male ; Seasons ; Sex Factors ; *Sexual Behavior, Animal ; Songbirds/*physiology ; Wings, Animal/anatomy &amp; histology/physiology ; }, abstract = {Sexually selected traits and early breeding are often correlated with quality in birds: individuals that breed earlier in the season have more elaborate traits and raise more surviving offspring [1, 2]. As global climate warms, breeding date for many temperate birds is advancing [3, 4], but we lack corresponding information on climate-induced variation in sexual selection. Here, we investigated influences of climate on a sexually selected plumage trait in a Himalayan warbler (Phylloscopus humei). We found that when spring is warm, birds breed early. Subsequent to an early-breeding year, adults express relatively large sexually selected traits and rear offspring that also develop large traits. The positive effects of early breeding, plus the across-year correlation between parent and offspring cohorts, predict that warmer climates should lead to increases in trait size. However, trait size has not increased over the past 25 years, even though mean breeding date has advanced. We show that whereas warm springs have positive effects on trait size, warm summers have negative effects due to increased feather wear. Apparent stasis in the size of a sexually selected trait thus masks large, conflicting influences of climate change. Continued climate warming has the potential to affect the honesty of sexual signals, as trait expression and condition become increasingly disassociated.}, }
@article {pmid22174897, year = {2011}, author = {Schloss, CA and Lawler, JJ and Larson, ER and Papendick, HL and Case, MJ and Evans, DM and DeLap, JH and Langdon, JG and Hall, SA and McRae, BH}, title = {Systematic conservation planning in the face of climate change: bet-hedging on the Columbia Plateau.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {e28788}, pmid = {22174897}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/economics ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Northwestern United States ; }, abstract = {Systematic conservation planning efforts typically focus on protecting current patterns of biodiversity. Climate change is poised to shift species distributions, reshuffle communities, and alter ecosystem functioning. In such a dynamic environment, lands selected to protect today's biodiversity may fail to do so in the future. One proposed approach to designing reserve networks that are robust to climate change involves protecting the diversity of abiotic conditions that in part determine species distributions and ecological processes. A set of abiotically diverse areas will likely support a diversity of ecological systems both today and into the future, although those two sets of systems might be dramatically different. Here, we demonstrate a conservation planning approach based on representing unique combinations of abiotic factors. We prioritize sites that represent the diversity of soils, topographies, and current climates of the Columbia Plateau. We then compare these sites to sites prioritized to protect current biodiversity. This comparison highlights places that are important for protecting both today's biodiversity and the diversity of abiotic factors that will likely determine biodiversity patterns in the future. It also highlights places where a reserve network designed solely to protect today's biodiversity would fail to capture the diversity of abiotic conditions and where such a network could be augmented to be more robust to climate-change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid22173417, year = {2012}, author = {van der Hoek, JP}, title = {Climate change mitigation by recovery of energy from the water cycle: a new challenge for water management.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {65}, number = {1}, pages = {135-141}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2011.820}, pmid = {22173417}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Drinking Water ; Sewage ; Temperature ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/methods ; *Water Cycle ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Waternet is responsible for drinking water treatment and distribution, wastewater collection and treatment, and surface water management and control (quality and quantity) in and around Amsterdam. Waternet has the ambition to operate climate neutral in 2020. To realise this ambition, measures are required to compensate for the emission of 53,000 ton CO(2)-eq/year. Energy recovery from the water cycle looks very promising. First, calculations reveal that energy recovery from the water cycle in and around Amsterdam may contribute to a total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions up to 148,000 ton CO(2)-eq/year. The challenge for the coming years is to choose combinations of all the possibilities to fulfil the energy demand as much as possible. Only then the use of fossil fuel can be minimized and inevitable greenhouse gas emissions can be compensated, supporting the target to operate climate neutral in 2020.}, }
@article {pmid22167315, year = {2012}, author = {Sakio, H and Masuzawa, T}, title = {The advancing timberline on Mt. Fuji: natural recovery or climate change?.}, journal = {Journal of plant research}, volume = {125}, number = {4}, pages = {539-546}, pmid = {22167315}, issn = {1618-0860}, mesh = {Abies/*growth &amp; development ; Alnus/*growth &amp; development ; *Altitude ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Cold Climate ; Ecosystem ; Japan ; Larix/*growth &amp; development ; Salix/*growth &amp; development ; Seedlings/*growth &amp; development ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; Volcanic Eruptions ; }, abstract = {The alpine timberline on Mt. Fuji (central Japan) is at 2,400-2,500 m above sea level. Over a 21-year period (1978-1999), we tracked changes in this vegetation boundary on a transect at a site impacted by the 1707 volcanic eruption. The timberline advanced rapidly upwards during this time period. Dominant tree species at the timberline (Alnus maximowiczii, Salix reinii, and Larix kaempferi) colonized sites that were initially largely free of vegetation at higher altitudes. Seedlings of L. kaempferi were particularly abundant at the border of advancing vegetation. According to tree age, we found that this was the first canopy species in the colonized areas. L. kaempferi is drought resistant, and this probably contributes to its establishment capability in the high-altitude climate. Most seedlings of Abies veitchii invaded patches of herbs and shrubs. These vegetation patches in the upper kampfzone provide important shelter for seedlings of invading tree species. We predict that the upward advance of the alpine timberline is a recovery process following the volcanic eruption, and that climate change may accelerate this advance.}, }
@article {pmid22166783, year = {2011}, author = {Vineis, P}, title = {[Climate change and vulnerability].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {35}, number = {5-6}, pages = {349}, pmid = {22166783}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Disaster Planning ; Humans ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, }
@article {pmid22164707, year = {2011}, author = {Kim, KS}, title = {Public understanding of the politics of global warming in the news media: the hostile media approach.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {690-705}, doi = {10.1177/0963662510372313}, pmid = {22164707}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Female ; *Global Warming ; *Hostility ; Humans ; Male ; *Mass Media ; *Politics ; Prejudice ; *Public Opinion ; Trust ; United States ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {This study uses the politics of global warming in the US to investigate an affective mechanism of hostile media perception and the democratic consequences of such perception, in an effort to delineate audience and journalistic barriers to stimulating urgent concern about climate change. The study confirms that partisanship played a significant role in perceptual differences with regard to media bias in an important area of science journalism--climate change. News consumers' anger perception was tested as a mediator in seeking an affective mechanism of hostile media perception. Hostile media perception has important democratic consequences in that it is positively associated with individuals' trust in news coverage of global warming and with selective media use.}, }
@article {pmid22164705, year = {2011}, author = {Brown, T and Budd, L and Bell, M and Rendell, H}, title = {The local impact of global climate change: reporting on landscape transformation and threatened identity in the English regional newspaper press.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {658-673}, doi = {10.1177/0963662510361416}, pmid = {22164705}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Global Warming ; Humans ; *Information Dissemination ; *Newspapers as Topic ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {This paper contributes to extant understandings of media representations of climate change by examining the role of the English regional newspaper press in the transformation and dissemination of climate change discourse. Unlike previous accounts, this paper contends that such newspapers shape public understandings of climate change in ways that have yet to be adequately charted. With this in mind, this paper examines the ways in which global climate change is translated into a locally relevant phenomenon. That is, it focuses on its "domestication." Although we acknowledge that there are a number of ways in which this process occurs, specific attention is drawn to stories that highlight the destruction of local landscape features, the transformation of important habitats, and the arrival of "alien" species. The broader significance of such stories is considered in relation to long-standing debates concerning the importance of landscape to notions of national and regional identity.}, }
@article {pmid22164305, year = {2011}, author = {Lawing, AM and Polly, PD}, title = {Pleistocene climate, phylogeny, and climate envelope models: an integrative approach to better understand species' response to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {e28554}, pmid = {22164305}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Crotalus/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; Fossils ; Geology ; Indiana ; Likelihood Functions ; Linear Models ; Models, Biological ; Models, Theoretical ; Oxygen/chemistry ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models), phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species), and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr) than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr).}, }
@article {pmid22158008, year = {2011}, author = {Ghannoum, O and Way, DA}, title = {On the role of ecological adaptation and geographic distribution in the response of trees to climate change.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {31}, number = {12}, pages = {1273-1276}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpr115}, pmid = {22158008}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {*Biomass ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Quercus/*growth &amp; development ; Seedlings/*growth &amp; development ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid22157641, year = {2011}, author = {Szema, AM}, title = {Climate change, allergies, and asthma.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {53}, number = {12}, pages = {1353-1354}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0b013e318237a00d}, pmid = {22157641}, issn = {1536-5948}, mesh = {Allergens/adverse effects ; Asthma/*epidemiology/etiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology/etiology ; Male ; Pollen/adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid22146013, year = {2012}, author = {Sulbaek Andersen, MP and Nielsen, OJ and Karpichev, B and Wallington, TJ and Sander, SP}, title = {Atmospheric chemistry of isoflurane, desflurane, and sevoflurane: kinetics and mechanisms of reactions with chlorine atoms and OH radicals and global warming potentials.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {116}, number = {24}, pages = {5806-5820}, doi = {10.1021/jp2077598}, pmid = {22146013}, issn = {1520-5215}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Chlorine/chemistry ; Desflurane ; *Global Warming ; Hydroxyl Radical/chemistry ; Ions/chemistry ; Isoflurane/*analogs &amp; derivatives/*chemistry ; Kinetics ; Methyl Ethers/*chemistry ; Sevoflurane ; }, abstract = {The smog chamber/Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) technique was used to measure the rate coefficients k(Cl + CF(3)CHClOCHF(2), isoflurane) = (4.5 ± 0.8) × 10(-15), k(Cl + CF(3)CHFOCHF(2), desflurane) = (1.0 ± 0.3) × 10(-15), k(Cl + (CF(3))(2)CHOCH(2)F, sevoflurane) = (1.1 ± 0.1) × 10(-13), and k(OH + (CF(3))(2)CHOCH(2)F) = (3.5 ± 0.7) × 10(-14) cm(3) molecule(-1) in 700 Torr of N(2)/air diluent at 295 ± 2 K. An upper limit of 6 × 10(-17) cm(3) molecule(-1) was established for k(Cl + (CF(3))(2)CHOC(O)F). The laser photolysis/laser-induced fluorescence (LP/LIF) technique was employed to determine hydroxyl radical rate coefficients as a function of temperature (241-298 K): k(OH + CF(3)CHFOCHF(2)) = (7.05 ± 1.80) × 10(-13) exp[-(1551 ± 72)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1); k(296 ± 1 K) = (3.73 ± 0.08) × 10(-15) cm(3) molecule(-1), and k(OH + (CF(3))(2)CHOCH(2)F) = (9.98 ± 3.24) × 10(-13) exp[-(969 ± 82)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1); k(298 ± 1 K) = (3.94 ± 0.30) × 10(-14) cm(3) molecule(-1). The rate coefficient of k(OH + CF(3)CHClOCHF(2), 296 ± 1 K) = (1.45 ± 0.16) × 10(-14) cm(3) molecule(-1) was also determined. Chlorine atoms react with CF(3)CHFOCHF(2) via H-abstraction to give CF(3)CFOCHF(2) and CF(3)CHFOCF(2) radicals in yields of approximately 83% and 17%. The major atmospheric fate of the CF(3)C(O)FOCHF(2) alkoxy radical is decomposition via elimination of CF(3) to give FC(O)OCHF(2) and is unaffected by the method used to generate the CF(3)C(O)FOCHF(2) radicals. CF(3)CHFOCF(2) radicals add O(2) and are converted by subsequent reactions into CF(3)CHFOCF(2)O alkoxy radicals, which decompose to give COF(2) and CF(3)CHFO radicals. In 700 Torr of air 82% of CF(3)CHFO radicals undergo C-C scission to yield HC(O)F and CF(3) radicals with the remaining 18% reacting with O(2) to give CF(3)C(O)F. Atmospheric oxidation of (CF(3))(2)CHOCH(2)F gives (CF(3))(2)CHOC(O)F in a molar yield of 93 ± 6% with CF(3)C(O)CF(3) and HCOF as minor products. The IR spectra of (CF(3))(2)CHOC(O)F and FC(O)OCHF(2) are reported for the first time. The atmospheric lifetimes of CF(3)CHClOCHF(2), CF(3)CHFOCHF(2), and (CF(3))(2)CHOCH(2)F (sevoflurane) are estimated at 3.2, 14, and 1.1 years, respectively. The 100 year time horizon global warming potentials of isoflurane, desflurane, and sevoflurane are 510, 2540, and 130, respectively. The atmospheric degradation products of these anesthetics are not of environmental concern.}, }
@article {pmid22145582, year = {2011}, author = {Rehmani, MI and Zhang, J and Li, G and Ata-Ul-Karim, ST and Wang, S and Kimball, BA and Yan, C and Liu, Z and Ding, Y}, title = {Simulation of future global warming scenarios in rice paddies with an open-field warming facility.}, journal = {Plant methods}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {41}, pmid = {22145582}, issn = {1746-4811}, abstract = {To simulate expected future global warming, hexagonal arrays of infrared heaters have previously been used to warm open-field canopies of upland crops such as wheat. Through the use of concrete-anchored posts, improved software, overhead wires, extensive grounding, and monitoring with a thermal camera, the technology was safely and reliably extended to paddy rice fields. The system maintained canopy temperature increases within 0.5°C of daytime and nighttime set-point differences of 1.3 and 2.7°C 67% of the time.}, }
@article {pmid22144386, year = {2012}, author = {Clark, JS and Bell, DM and Kwit, M and Stine, A and Vierra, B and Zhu, K}, title = {Individual-scale inference to anticipate climate-change vulnerability of biodiversity.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1586}, pages = {236-246}, pmid = {22144386}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Bayes Theorem ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Models, Biological ; *Models, Theoretical ; Trees/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Anticipating how biodiversity will respond to climate change is challenged by the fact that climate variables affect individuals in competition with others, but interest lies at the scale of species and landscapes. By omitting the individual scale, models cannot accommodate the processes that determine future biodiversity. We demonstrate how individual-scale inference can be applied to the problem of anticipating vulnerability of species to climate. The approach places climate vulnerability in the context of competition for light and soil moisture. Sensitivities to climate and competition interactions aggregated from the individual tree scale provide estimates of which species are vulnerable to which variables in different habitats. Vulnerability is explored in terms of specific demographic responses (growth, fecundity and survival) and in terms of the synthetic response (the combination of demographic rates), termed climate tracking. These indices quantify risks for individuals in the context of their competitive environments. However, by aggregating in specific ways (over individuals, years, and other input variables), we provide ways to summarize and rank species in terms of their risks from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22143561, year = {2011}, author = {Krämer, F and Mencke, N}, title = {[Climate change - a pioneer for the expansion of canine vector-borne diseases?].}, journal = {Tierarztliche Praxis. Ausgabe K, Kleintiere/Heimtiere}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {31-37}, pmid = {22143561}, issn = {1434-1239}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/etiology/transmission/*veterinary ; *Disease Vectors ; Dog Diseases/epidemiology/*etiology/transmission ; Dogs ; Travel ; }, abstract = {Vector-transmitted diseases are one of the major contributors to the global burden of disease in humans and animals. Climate change is consistently held responsible for the spread of parasitic acarid and insect vectors such as ticks, fleas, sand flies and mosquitoes, and their transmitted pathogens (in the case of the dog the so-called canine vector-borne diseases [CVBD]). Currently, there is only insufficient data available to prove whether climate change is a major driving force for vector and disease expansion, but the evidence is growing. Other reasons, such as ecological, demographic and socio-economic factors, e.g. pet travel into and pet import from endemic areas, also play a role in this development. Apart from all the controversial discussion of the factors leading to vector and disease expansion, preventative measures should include dog owners' education as they are responsible for individual parasite protection as well as for the minimisation of adverse risk behaviour, e.g. regarding pet travel. Broad-spectrum vector control should be practised by using parasiticides that repel and kill blood feeders in order to minimize the risk of CVBD-pathogen transmission.}, }
@article {pmid22143228, year = {2012}, author = {Rynor, B}, title = {Climate change poses health threats in Arctic.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {184}, number = {1}, pages = {E33-4}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-4053}, pmid = {22143228}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid22099348, year = {2011}, author = {Schlenk, D and Lavado, R}, title = {Impacts of climate change on hypersaline conditions of estuaries and xenobiotic toxicity.}, journal = {Aquatic toxicology (Amsterdam, Netherlands)}, volume = {105}, number = {3-4 Suppl}, pages = {78-82}, doi = {10.1016/j.aquatox.2011.06.023}, pmid = {22099348}, issn = {1879-1514}, mesh = {Animals ; Bays/*chemistry ; California ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Fishes/*metabolism ; Pesticides/metabolism/*toxicity ; Salinity ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/metabolism/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {Climate change has had significant impacts on the hydrologic cycle of the planet. Of particular concern are estuarine environments, such as San Francisco Bay (USA) which is fed by diminishing snow pack runoff leading to gradual increases in salinity. Salinity enhances the acute toxicity of several agricultural chemicals in anadromous fish through augmented biochemical activation catalyzed by enzymes that are induced during hypersaline acclimation. This review discusses the mechanisms of the enhanced toxicity, the enzymes involved and the regulation of the enzymes by hypersaline conditions. Given the rapid changes taking place in the world's waterways, environmental modification of toxicological pathways should be a significant focus of the research community as the toxicity of multiple xenobiotics may be enhanced.}, }
@article {pmid22140590, year = {2011}, author = {Fischer, D and Moeller, P and Thomas, SM and Naucke, TJ and Beierkuhnlein, C}, title = {Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {e1407}, pmid = {22140590}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Animals ; Austria ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Disease Vectors ; Germany ; Phlebotomus/*growth &amp; development ; Switzerland ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In the Old World, sandfly species of the genus Phlebotomus are known vectors of Leishmania, Bartonella and several viruses. Recent sandfly catches and autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis hint on spreading tendencies of the vectors towards Central Europe. However, studies addressing potential future distribution of sandflies in the light of a changing European climate are missing.<br><br>METHODOLOGY: Here, we modelled bioclimatic envelopes using MaxEnt for five species with proven or assumed vector competence for Leishmania infantum, which are either predominantly located in (south-) western (Phlebotomus ariasi, P. mascittii and P. perniciosus) or south-eastern Europe (P. neglectus and P. perfiliewi). The determined bioclimatic envelopes were transferred to two climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) for Central Europe (Austria, Germany and Switzerland) using data of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. We detected the most likely way of natural dispersal ("least-cost path") for each species and hence determined the accessibility of potential future climatically suitable habitats by integrating landscape features, projected changes in climatic suitability and wind speed.<br><br>RESULTS AND RELEVANCE: Results indicate that the Central European climate will become increasingly suitable especially for those vector species with a current south-western focus of distribution. In general, the highest suitability of Central Europe is projected for all species in the second half of the 21st century, except for P. perfiliewi. Nevertheless, we show that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy their climatically suitable habitats entirely, due to their limited natural dispersal ability. A northward spread of species with south-eastern focus of distribution may be constrained but not completely avoided by the Alps. Our results can be used to install specific monitoring systems to the projected risk zones of potential sandfly establishment. This is urgently needed for adaptation and coping strategies against the emerging spread of sandfly-borne diseases.}, }
@article {pmid22136241, year = {2011}, author = {Fobert, E and Fox, MG and Ridgway, M and Copp, GH}, title = {Heated competition: how climate change will affect non-native pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus and native perch Perca fluviatilis interactions in the U.K.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {79}, number = {6}, pages = {1592-1607}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2011.03083.x}, pmid = {22136241}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Competitive Behavior ; Diet ; England ; Feeding Behavior ; *Introduced Species ; Perches/*growth &amp; development ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Heated and ambient temperature experimental ponds were used to examine competition between introduced pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus and native perch Perca fluviatilis in England, U.K., and how these interactions are likely to change under climate warming conditions. Results from three sets of two-week experiments indicated that in both species and in all sets, growth was faster in heated than in ambient temperature ponds. Growth of both P. fluviatilis and L. gibbosus in sympatry did not differ significantly from that observed in allopatric ponds. Diet analysis indicated that increased resource partitioning occurred when P. fluviatilis and L. gibbosus were reared in sympatry, with P. fluviatilis shifting to a diet higher in microcrustaceans. The results do not support the previous claims of adverse effects of L. gibbosus on P. fluviatilis populations. Under conditions of climate change, however, which have been demonstrated experimentally to enhance L. gibbosus recruitment, this species is expected to become invasive in England, resulting in higher densities that may exert a stronger competitive effect than examined in this study.}, }
@article {pmid22133581, year = {2011}, author = {Spivey, A}, title = {More lack in the world: the complex connection between undernutrition and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {12}, pages = {A524}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.119-a524a}, pmid = {22133581}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Child Nutrition Disorders/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Growth and Development/*physiology ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, }
@article {pmid22133540, year = {2011}, author = {Kessler, R}, title = {Stormwater strategies: cities prepare aging infrastructure for climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {12}, pages = {A514-9}, pmid = {22133540}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Floods ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/*methods ; *Water Movements ; Water Quality/*standards ; }, }
@article {pmid22129707, year = {2011}, author = {Schuur, EA and Abbott, B}, title = {Climate change: High risk of permafrost thaw.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {480}, number = {7375}, pages = {32-33}, pmid = {22129707}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Ecosystem ; *Freezing ; *Global Warming ; Methane/chemistry ; Soil/*chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid22128069, year = {2012}, author = {Polivka, BJ and Chaudry, RV and Mac Crawford, J}, title = {Public health nurses' knowledge and attitudes regarding climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {3}, pages = {321-325}, pmid = {22128069}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Public Health Nursing ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change affects human health, and health departments are urged to act to reduce the severity of these impacts. Yet little is known about the perspective of public health nurses--the largest component of the public health workforce--regarding their roles in addressing health impacts of climate change.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We determined the knowledge and attitudes of public health nurses concerning climate change and the role of public health nursing in divisions of health departments in addressing health-related impacts of climate change. Differences by demographic subgroups were explored.<br><br>METHODS: An online survey was distributed to nursing directors of U.S. health departments (n = 786) with Internet staff directories.<br><br>RESULTS: Respondents (n = 176) were primarily female, white public health nursing administrators with &#x2265; 5 years of experience. Approximately equal percentages of respondents self-identified as having moderate, conservative, and liberal political views. Most agreed that the earth has experienced climate change and that climate change is somewhat controllable. Respondents identified an average of 5 of the 12 listed health-related impacts of climate change, but the modal response was zero impact. Public health nursing was perceived as having responsibility to address health-related impacts of climate change but lacking the ability to address these impacts.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Public health nurses view the environment as under threat and see a role for nursing divisions in addressing health effects of climate change. However, they recognize the limited resources and personnel available to devote to this endeavor.}, }
@article {pmid22126116, year = {2012}, author = {Johnson, BB}, title = {Climate change communication: a provocative inquiry into motives, meanings, and means.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {973-991}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01731.x}, pmid = {22126116}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Altruism ; Behavior ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; Cultural Characteristics ; Environment ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Perception ; Public Health ; *Public Opinion ; Risk ; *Social Behavior ; Social Change ; Social Marketing ; }, abstract = {The deliberately provocative theme of this article is that perceived difficulties in climate change communication (CCC)--e.g., indifference about or denial of climate change's reality, negative consequences, anthropogenic causes, or need to mitigate or adapt to it-are partly the fault of climate change communicators. Fischhoff's model of risk communication development is used to demonstrate that CCC to date has tended to stress persuasion, rather than social movement mobilization or deliberation, and with a focus on the model's early stages. Later stages are not necessarily better, but a more diverse strategy seems superior to a focus perhaps narrowed by empathic, ideological, psychological, and resource constraints. Furthermore, even within persuasion, emphasizing a wider set of values, consequences, and audiences could be fruitful. Social movement mobilization has its own set of weaknesses, but usefully complements persuasion with a focus on developing power, subverting mainstream assumptions, and engaging people in collective action. Deliberation similarly has its drawbacks, but unlike the other two approaches does not define the solution-or even, necessarily, the problem-in advance, and thus offers the chance for people of contending viewpoints to jointly develop concepts and action agendas hitherto unimagined. Simultaneous pursuit of all three strategies can to some degree offset their respective flaws, at the potential cost of diffusion of energies and contradictory messages. Success in CCC is by no means guaranteed by a more diverse set of strategies and self-reflection by communicators, but their pursuit should better reveal CCC's limits.}, }
@article {pmid22125762, year = {2011}, author = {Park, JW}, title = {Changing Transmission Pattern of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in the Republic of Korea: Relationship with Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health and toxicology}, volume = {26}, number = {}, pages = {e2011001}, pmid = {22125762}, issn = {2233-6567}, abstract = {Plasmodium vivax malaria has occurred annually in the Republic of Korea (ROK) since its re-emergence in 1993. P. vivax malaria in ROK has been strongly influenced by infected mosquitoes originating from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Korean P. vivax malaria has shown typical characteristics of unstable malaria transmitted only during the summer season, and displays short and long incubation periods. The changing pattern of the transmission period can be predicted by analyzing the seasonal characteristics of early primary attack cases with a short incubation period. Such cases began to gradually occur earlier in the 1990s after the re-emergence. Most of the malaria cases after mid-August are presumed to be early primary attack, short incubation period cases. Only primary transmission was possible until the early 2000s, whereas up to fourth or fifth transmission occurred in the mid-2000s. The results indicate that the length of transmission period has been gradually extending, which may be ascribed to a climate change-mediated temperature rise. Malaria and climate data should be integrated to analyze and predict the influence of climate change on malaria occurrence in ROK.}, }
@article {pmid22123520, year = {2012}, author = {Zhang, M and Duan, H and Shi, X and Yu, Y and Kong, F}, title = {Contributions of meteorology to the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms: implications for future climate change.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {46}, number = {2}, pages = {442-452}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2011.11.013}, pmid = {22123520}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Eutrophication ; Lakes/microbiology ; Meteorology ; Regression Analysis ; Seasons ; Spacecraft ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Cyanobacterial blooms are often a result of eutrophication. Recently, however, their expansion has also been found to be associated with changes in climate. To elucidate the effects of climatic variables on the expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in Taihu, China, we analyzed the relationships between climatic variables and bloom events which were retrieved by satellite images. We then assessed the contribution of each climate variable to the phenology of blooms using multiple regression models. Our study demonstrates that retrieving ecological information from satellite images is meritorious for large-scale and long-term ecological research in freshwater ecosystems. Our results show that the phenological changes of blooms at an inter-annual scale are strongly linked to climate in Taihu during the past 23 yr. Cyanobacterial blooms occur earlier and last longer with the increase of temperature, sunshine hours, and global radiation and the decrease of wind speed. Furthermore, the duration increases when the daily averages of maximum, mean, and minimum temperature each exceed 20.3 °C, 16.7 °C, and 13.7 °C, respectively. Among these factors, sunshine hours and wind speed are the primary contributors to the onset of the blooms, explaining 84.6% of their variability over the past 23 yr. These factors are also good predictors of the variability in the duration of annual blooms and determined 58.9% of the variability in this parameter. Our results indicate that when nutrients are in sufficiently high quantities to sustain the formation of cyanobacterial blooms, climatic variables become crucial in predicting cyanobacterial bloom events. Climate changes should be considered when we evaluate how much the amount of nutrients should be reduced in Taihu for lake management.}, }
@article {pmid22119036, year = {2012}, author = {Oni, SK and Futter, MN and Molot, LA and Dillon, PJ}, title = {Modelling the long term impact of climate change on the carbon budget of Lake Simcoe, Ontario using INCA-C.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {414}, number = {}, pages = {387-403}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.10.025}, pmid = {22119036}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon Cycle/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Geographic Information Systems ; Lakes/*chemistry ; *Models, Chemical ; Ontario ; }, abstract = {This study presents a process-based model of dissolved organic carbon concentration ([DOC]) in catchments draining into Lake Simcoe, Ontario. INCA-C, the Integrated Catchment model for Carbon, incorporates carbon biogeochemical processes in a terrestrial system with hydrologic flow paths to simulate watershed wide [DOC]. The model successfully simulates present-day inter-annual and seasonal [DOC] dynamics in tributaries draining catchments with mixed or contrasting land cover in the Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW). The sensitivity of INCA-C to soil moisture, hydrologic controls and land uses within a watershed demonstrates its significance as a tool to explore pertinent environmental issues specific to the LSW. Projections of climate change under A1B and A2 SRES scenarios suggest a continuous monotonic increase in [DOC] in surface waters draining into Lake Simcoe. Large variations in seasonal DOC dynamics are predicted to occur during summer with a possibility of displacement of summer [DOC] maxima towards winter and a prolongation of summer [DOC] levels into the autumn. INCA-C also predicts possible increases in dissolved inorganic carbon in some tributaries with rising temperature suggesting increased CO(2) emissions from rivers as climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid22119025, year = {2012}, author = {Statham, PJ}, title = {Nutrients in estuaries--an overview and the potential impacts of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {434}, number = {}, pages = {213-227}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.09.088}, pmid = {22119025}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Estuaries ; }, abstract = {The fate and cycling of macronutrients introduced into estuaries depend upon a range of interlinked processes. Hydrodynamics and morphology in combination with freshwater inflow control the freshwater flushing time, and the timescale for biogeochemical processes to operate that include microbial activity, particle-dissolved phase interactions, and benthic exchanges. In some systems atmospheric inputs and exchanges with coastal waters can also be important. Climate change will affect nutrient inputs and behaviour through modifications to temperature, wind patterns, the hydrological cycle, and sea level rise. Resulting impacts include: 1) inundation of freshwater systems 2) changes in stratification, flushing times and phytoplankton productivity 3) increased coastal storm activity 4) changes in species and ecosystem function. A combination of continuing high inputs of nutrients through human activity and climate change is anticipated to lead to enhanced eutrophication in the future. The most obvious impacts of increasing global temperature will be in sub-arctic systems where permafrost zones will be reduced in combination with enhanced inputs from glacial systems. Improved process understanding in several key areas including cycling of organic N and P, benthic exchanges, resuspension, impact of bio-irrigation, particle interactions, submarine groundwater discharges, and rates and magnitude of bacterially-driven recycling processes, is needed. Development of high frequency in situ nutrient analysis systems will provide data to improve predictive models that need to incorporate a wider variety of key factors, although the complexity of estuarine systems makes such modelling a challenge. However, overall a more holistic approach is needed to effectively understand, predict and manage the impact of macronutrients on estuaries.}, }
@article {pmid22118269, year = {2012}, author = {Gale, P and Stephenson, B and Brouwer, A and Martinez, M and de la Torre, A and Bosch, J and Foley-Fisher, M and Bonilauri, P and Lindström, A and Ulrich, RG and de Vos, CJ and Scremin, M and Liu, Z and Kelly, L and Muñoz, MJ}, title = {Impact of climate change on risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in livestock in Europe through migratory birds.}, journal = {Journal of applied microbiology}, volume = {112}, number = {2}, pages = {246-257}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2672.2011.05203.x}, pmid = {22118269}, issn = {1365-2672}, mesh = {Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Hemorrhagic Fever Virus, Crimean-Congo/*physiology ; Hemorrhagic Fever, Crimean/prevention &amp; control/transmission/*veterinary ; Livestock ; Models, Theoretical ; Nymph/virology ; Population Density ; Risk Assessment ; Seasons ; Tick Infestations/*veterinary/virology ; Tick-Borne Diseases/prevention &amp; control/transmission/*veterinary ; Ticks/*virology ; }, abstract = {AIMS: To predict the risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) in livestock in Europe introduced through immature Hyalomma marginatum ticks on migratory birds under current conditions and in the decade 2075-2084 under a climate-change scenario.<br><br>METHODS AND RESULTS: A spatial risk map of Europe comprising 14 282 grid cells (25 &#xd7; 25 km) was constructed using three data sources: (i) ranges and abundances of four species of bird which migrate from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe each spring, namely Willow warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus), Northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe), Tree pipit (Anthus trivialis) and Common quail (Coturnix coturnix); (ii) UK Met Office HadRM3 spring temperatures for prediction of moulting success of immature H. marginatum ticks and (iii) livestock densities. On average, the number of grid cells in Europe predicted to have at least one CCHFV incursion in livestock in spring was 1&#xb7;04 per year for the decade 2005-2014 and 1&#xb7;03 per year for the decade 2075-2084. In general with the assumed climate-change scenario, the risk increased in northern Europe but decreased in central and southern Europe, although there is considerable local variation in the trends.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The absolute risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through ticks introduced by four abundant species of migratory bird (totalling 120 million individual birds) is very low. Climate change has opposing effects, increasing the success of the moult of the nymphal ticks into adults but decreasing the projected abundance of birds by 34% in this model.<br><br>For Europe, climate change is not predicted to increase the overall risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through infected ticks introduced by these four migratory bird species.}, }
@article {pmid22118243, year = {2012}, author = {Buckley, J and Butlin, RK and Bridle, JR}, title = {Evidence for evolutionary change associated with the recent range expansion of the British butterfly, Aricia agestis, in response to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {267-280}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2011.05388.x}, pmid = {22118243}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis/methods ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Butterflies/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; Gene Frequency ; Genetic Loci ; Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Linkage Disequilibrium ; Selection, Genetic ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Poleward range expansions are widespread responses to recent climate change and are crucial for the future persistence of many species. However, evolutionary change in traits such as colonization history and habitat preference may also be necessary to track environmental change across a fragmented landscape. Understanding the likelihood and speed of such adaptive change is important in determining the rate of species extinction with ongoing climate change. We conducted an amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP)-based genome scan across the recently expanded UK range of the Brown Argus butterfly, Aricia agestis, and used outlier-based (DFDIST and BayeScan) and association-based (Isolation-By-Adaptation) statistical approaches to identify signatures of evolutionary change associated with range expansion and habitat use. We present evidence for (i) limited effects of range expansion on population genetic structure and (ii) strong signatures of selection at approximately 5% AFLP loci associated with both the poleward range expansion of A. agestis and differences in habitat use across long-established and recently colonized sites. Patterns of allele frequency variation at these candidate loci suggest that adaptation to new habitats at the range margin has involved selection on genetic variation in habitat use found across the long-established part of the range. Our results suggest that evolutionary change is likely to affect species' responses to climate change and that genetic variation in ecological traits across species' distributions should be maximized to facilitate range shifts across a fragmented landscape, particularly in species that show strong associations with particular habitats.}, }
@article {pmid22116885, year = {2011}, author = {Harley, CD}, title = {Climate change, keystone predation, and biodiversity loss.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {334}, number = {6059}, pages = {1124-1127}, doi = {10.1126/science.1210199}, pmid = {22116885}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aquatic Organisms ; *Biodiversity ; Bivalvia ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geologic Sediments ; *Invertebrates ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Dynamics ; *Predatory Behavior ; Starfish ; Temperature ; Thoracica ; }, abstract = {Climate change can affect organisms both directly via physiological stress and indirectly via changing relationships among species. However, we do not fully understand how changing interspecific relationships contribute to community- and ecosystem-level responses to environmental forcing. I used experiments and spatial and temporal comparisons to demonstrate that warming substantially reduces predator-free space on rocky shores. The vertical extent of mussel beds decreased by 51% in 52 years, and reproductive populations of mussels disappeared at several sites. Prey species were able to occupy a hot, extralimital site if predation pressure was experimentally reduced, and local species richness more than doubled as a result. These results suggest that anthropogenic climate change can alter interspecific interactions and produce unexpected changes in species distributions, community structure, and diversity.}, }
@article {pmid22116871, year = {2011}, author = {Nogués-Bravo, D and Rahbek, C}, title = {Ecology. Communities under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {334}, number = {6059}, pages = {1070-1071}, doi = {10.1126/science.1214833}, pmid = {22116871}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Aquatic Organisms ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Invertebrates ; *Predatory Behavior ; }, }
@article {pmid22116859, year = {2011}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Adaptation to climate change. Time to adapt to a warming world, but where's the science?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {334}, number = {6059}, pages = {1052-1053}, doi = {10.1126/science.334.6059.1052}, pmid = {22116859}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22116846, year = {2011}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Humans are driving extreme weather; time to prepare.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {334}, number = {6059}, pages = {1040}, doi = {10.1126/science.334.6059.1040}, pmid = {22116846}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22116029, year = {2011}, author = {Hegerl, GC and Russon, T}, title = {Climate change. Using the past to predict the future?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {334}, number = {6061}, pages = {1360-1361}, doi = {10.1126/science.1214828}, pmid = {22116029}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22113877, year = {2012}, author = {Semenza, JC and Suk, JE and Estevez, V and Ebi, KL and Lindgren, E}, title = {Mapping climate change vulnerabilities to infectious diseases in Europe.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {3}, pages = {385-392}, pmid = {22113877}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; Data Collection ; Europe/epidemiology ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The incidence, outbreak frequency, and distribution of many infectious diseases are generally expected to change as a consequence of climate change, yet there is limited regional information available to guide decision making.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: We surveyed government officials designated as Competent Bodies for Scientific Advice concerning infectious diseases to examine the degree to which they are concerned about potential effects of climate change on infectious diseases, as well as their perceptions of institutional capacities in their respective countries.<br><br>METHODS: In 2007 and 2009/2010, national infectious disease experts from 30 European Economic Area countries were surveyed about recent and projected infectious disease patterns in relation to climate change in their countries and the national capacity to cope with them.<br><br>RESULTS: A large majority of respondents agreed that climate change would affect vector-borne (86% of country representatives), food-borne (70%), water-borne (68%), and rodent-borne (68%) diseases in their countries. In addition, most indicated that institutional improvements are needed for ongoing surveillance programs (83%), collaboration with the veterinary sector (69%), management of animal disease outbreaks (66%), national monitoring and control of climate-sensitive infectious diseases (64%), health services during an infectious disease outbreak (61%), and diagnostic support during an epidemic (54%).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Expert responses were generally consistent with the peer-reviewed literature regarding the relationship between climate change and vector- and water-borne diseases, but were less so for food-borne diseases. Shortcomings in institutional capacity to manage climate change vulnerability, identified in this assessment, should be addressed in impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments.}, }
@article {pmid22112586, year = {2012}, author = {da Silva, DM and Hoffmann-Campo, CB and de Freitas Bueno, A and de Freitas Bueno, RC and de Oliveira, MC and Moscardi, F}, title = {Biological characteristics of Anticarsia gemmatalis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) for three consecutive generations under different temperatures: understanding the possible impact of global warming on a soybean pest.}, journal = {Bulletin of entomological research}, volume = {102}, number = {3}, pages = {285-292}, doi = {10.1017/S0007485311000642}, pmid = {22112586}, issn = {1475-2670}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; Global Warming ; Larva/growth &amp; development ; *Longevity ; Male ; Moths/*growth &amp; development ; Ovum/physiology ; Pupa/growth &amp; development ; *Sex Ratio ; Glycine max/*parasitology ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate changes can affect the distribution and intensity of insect infestations through direct effects on their life cycles. Experiments were carried out during three consecutive generations to evaluate the effect of different temperatures (25°C, 28°C, 31°C, 34°C and 37±1°C) on biological traits of the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis Hübner, 1818 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). The insects were fed on artificial diet and reared in environmental chambers set at 14 h photophase. The developmental cycle slowed with the increase in the temperature, within the 25°C to 34°C range. Male and female longevities were reduced with an increase in temperature from 25°C to 28°C. Egg viability was highest at 25°C, and the sex ratio was not influenced by temperature, in the three generations. There was no interactive effect between development time and temperature on pupal weight. The results suggested that the increase in the temperature negatively impacted A. gemmatalis development inside the studied temperature range, indicating a possible future reduction of its occurrence on soybean crops, as a consequence of global warming, mainly considering its impact on tropical countries where this plant is cropped. A. gemmatalis was not able to adapt to higher temperatures in a three-generation interval for the studied temperature range. However, a gradual increase and a longer adaptation period may favor insect selection and consequently adaptation, and must be considered in future studies in this area. Moreover, it is important to consider that global warming might turn cold areas more suitable to A. gemmatalis outbreaks. Therefore, more than a future reduction of A. gemmatalis occurrence due to global warming, we might expect changes regarding its area of occurrence on a global perspective.}, }
@article {pmid22109645, year = {2012}, author = {Ahmad, Z and Hafeez, M and Ahmad, I}, title = {Hydrology of mountainous areas in the upper Indus Basin, Northern Pakistan with the perspective of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {184}, number = {9}, pages = {5255-5274}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-011-2337-7}, pmid = {22109645}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Pakistan ; Water Supply/*analysis/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Mountainous areas in the northern Pakistan are blessed by numerous rivers that have great potential in water resources and hydropower production. Many of these rivers are unexploited for their water resource potential. If the potential of these rivers are explored, hydropower production and water supplies in these areas may be improved. The Indus is the main river originating from mountainous area of the Himalayas of Baltistan, Pakistan in which most of the smaller streams drain. In this paper, the hydrology of the mountainous areas in northern Pakistan is studied to estimate flow pattern, long-term trend in river flows, characteristics of the watersheds, and variability in flow and water resource due to impact of climate change. Eight watersheds including Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Astore, Jhelum, Swat, and Chitral, Pakistan have been studied from 1960 to 2005 to monitor hydrological changes in relation to variability in precipitation, temperature and mean monthly flows, trend of snow melt runoff, analysis of daily hydrographs, water yield and runoff relationship, and flow duration curves. Precipitation from ten meteorological stations in mountainous area of northern Pakistan showed variability in the winter and summer rains and did not indicate a uniform distribution of rains. Review of mean monthly temperature of ten stations suggested that the Upper Indus Basin can be categorized into three hydrological regimes, i.e., high-altitude catchments with large glacierized parts, middle-altitude catchments south of Karakoram, and foothill catchments. Analysis of daily runoff data (1960-2005) of eight watersheds indicated nearly a uniform pattern with much of the runoff in summer (June-August). Impact of climate change on long-term recorded annual runoff of eight watersheds showed fair water flows at the Hunza and Jhelum Rivers while rest of the rivers indicated increased trends in runoff volumes. The study of the water yield availability indicated a minimum trend in Shyok River at Yogo and a maximum trend in Swat River at Kalam. Long-term recorded data used to estimate flow duration curves have shown a uniform trend and are important for hydropower generation for Pakistan which is seriously facing power crisis in last 5 years.}, }
@article {pmid22109104, year = {2012}, author = {Buckley, LB and Foushee, MS}, title = {Footprints of climate change in US national park visitation.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {56}, number = {6}, pages = {1173-1177}, pmid = {22109104}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Climate Change/*history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Recreation/*history ; Time Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change has driven many organisms to shift their seasonal timing. Are humans also shifting their weather-related behaviors such as outdoor recreation? Here we show that peak attendance in US national parks experiencing climate change has shifted 4 days earlier since 1979. Of the nine parks experiencing significant increases in mean spring temperatures, seven also exhibit shifts in the timing of peak attendance. Of the 18 parks without significant temperature changes, only 3 exhibit attendance shifts. Our analysis suggests that humans are among the organisms shifting behavior in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22104602, year = {2012}, author = {Ziska, LH and Beggs, PJ}, title = {Anthropogenic climate change and allergen exposure: The role of plant biology.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {129}, number = {1}, pages = {27-32}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2011.10.032}, pmid = {22104602}, issn = {1097-6825}, mesh = {Allergens/*immunology ; Antigens, Plant/*immunology ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure ; Fungi/physiology ; Humans ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/*immunology ; Pollen/immunology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Accumulation of anthropogenic gases, particularly CO(2), is likely to have 2 fundamental effects on plant biology. The first is an indirect effect through Earth's increasing average surface temperatures, with subsequent effects on other aspects of climate, such as rainfall and extreme weather events. The second is a direct effect caused by CO(2)-induced stimulation of photosynthesis and plant growth. Both effects are likely to alter a number of fundamental aspects of plant biology and human health, including aerobiology and allergic diseases, respectively. This review highlights the current and projected effect of increasing CO(2) and climate change in the context of plants and allergen exposure, emphasizing direct effects on plant physiologic parameters (eg, pollen production) and indirect effects (eg, fungal sporulation) related to diverse biotic and abiotic interactions. Overall, the review assumes that future global mitigation efforts will be limited and suggests a number of key research areas that will assist in adapting to the ongoing challenges to public health associated with increased allergen exposure.}, }
@article {pmid22104383, year = {2012}, author = {Stern, GA and Macdonald, RW and Outridge, PM and Wilson, S and Chételat, J and Cole, A and Hintelmann, H and Loseto, LL and Steffen, A and Wang, F and Zdanowicz, C}, title = {How does climate change influence Arctic mercury?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {414}, number = {}, pages = {22-42}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.10.039}, pmid = {22104383}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis/metabolism/pharmacokinetics ; Fresh Water/chemistry ; Ice Cover/*chemistry ; Mercury/*analysis/metabolism/pharmacokinetics ; Methylation ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Recent studies have shown that climate change is already having significant impacts on many aspects of transport pathways, speciation and cycling of mercury within Arctic ecosystems. For example, the extensive loss of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean and the concurrent shift from greater proportions of perennial to annual types have been shown to promote changes in primary productivity, shift foodweb structures, alter mercury methylation and demethylation rates, and influence mercury distribution and transport across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface (bottom-up processes). In addition, changes in animal social behavior associated with changing sea-ice regimes can affect dietary exposure to mercury (top-down processes). In this review, we address these and other possible ramifications of climate variability on mercury cycling, processes and exposure by applying recent literature to the following nine questions; 1) What impact has climate change had on Arctic physical characteristics and processes? 2) How do rising temperatures affect atmospheric mercury chemistry? 3) Will a decrease in sea-ice coverage have an impact on the amount of atmospheric mercury deposited to or emitted from the Arctic Ocean, and if so, how? 4) Does climate affect air-surface mercury flux, and riverine mercury fluxes, in Arctic freshwater and terrestrial systems, and if so, how? 5) How does climate change affect mercury methylation/demethylation in different compartments in the Arctic Ocean and freshwater systems? 6) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of freshwater food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of mercury? 7) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of marine food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of marine mercury? 8) What are the likely mercury emissions from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost under climate change scenarios? and 9) What can be learned from current mass balance inventories of mercury in the Arctic? The review finishes with several conclusions and recommendations.}, }
@article {pmid22098619, year = {2012}, author = {McCluney, KE and Belnap, J and Collins, SL and González, AL and Hagen, EM and Nathaniel Holland, J and Kotler, BP and Maestre, FT and Smith, SD and Wolf, BO}, title = {Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {87}, number = {3}, pages = {563-582}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-185X.2011.00209.x}, pmid = {22098619}, issn = {1469-185X}, support = {242658/ERC_/European Research Council/International ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plants/*metabolism ; Species Specificity ; *Water ; }, abstract = {Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid22098311, year = {2012}, author = {Moreno-Rueda, G and Pleguezuelos, JM and Pizarro, M and Montori, A}, title = {Northward shifts of the distributions of Spanish reptiles in association with climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {278-283}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01793.x}, pmid = {22098311}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Reptiles/classification/*physiology ; Spain ; }, abstract = {It is predicted that climate change will drive extinctions of some reptiles and that the number of these extinctions will depend on whether reptiles are able to change their distribution. Whether the latitudinal distribution of reptiles may change in response to increases in temperature is unknown. We used data on reptile distributions collected during the 20th century to analyze whether changes in the distributions of reptiles in Spain are associated with increases in temperature. We controlled for biases in sampling effort and found a mean, statistically significant, northward shift of the northern extent of reptile distributions of about 15.2 km from 1940-1975 to 1991-2005. The southern extent of the distributions did not change significantly. Thus, our results suggest that the latitudinal distributions of reptiles may be changing in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22097372, year = {2011}, author = {Song, CQ and You, SC and Ke, LH and Liu, GH and Zhong, XK}, title = {[Spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau with responses to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {8}, pages = {2091-2097}, pmid = {22097372}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Freezing ; Ice Cover ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {By using the 2001-2008 MOMS land cover products (MCDl2Ql) and based on the modified classification scheme embodied the characteristics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau, the annual land cover type maps of the Plateau were drawn, with the dynamic changes of each land cover type analyzed by classification statistics, dynamic transfer matrix, and landscape pattern indices. In 2001-2008, due to the acceleration of global climate warming, the areas of glacier and snow-covered land in the Plateau decreased rapidly, and the melted snow water gathered into low-lying valley or basin, making the lake level raised and the lake area enlarged. Some permanent wetlands were formed because of partially submersed grassland. The vegetation cover did not show any evident meliorated or degraded trend. From 2001 to 2004, as the climate became warmer and wetter, the spatial distribution of desert began to shrink, and the proportions of sparse grassland and grassland increased. From 2006 to 2007, due to the warmer and drier climate, the desert bare land increased, and the sparse grassland decreased. From 2001 to 2008, both the landscape fragmentation degree and the land cover heterogeneity decreased, and the differences in the proportions of all land cover types somewhat enlarged.}, }
@article {pmid22097363, year = {2011}, author = {Ye, Q and Yang, XG and Li, Y and Dai, SW and Xiao, JX}, title = {[Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. VIII. Change characteristics of heat resources during the growth period of double cropping rice in Jiangxi Province].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {8}, pages = {2021-2030}, pmid = {22097363}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; *Hot Temperature ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Reproduction ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Based on the observation data from the meteorological stations and agricultural experimental stations in Jiangxi Province, this paper studied the change trend of the growth period of double cropping rice in the province, and, by using the indices growing degree-days (GDD), cool degree-days (CDD), and heat degree-days (HDD), the change trends of the heat resources at each growth stage of the double cropping rice in 1981-2007 were analyzed. Under the background of climate warming, the mean air temperature, mean minimum air temperature, mean maximum air temperature during the growth period of the double cropping rice all had an increasing trend, leading to the shortening of double cropping rice growth season, with the most obvious decrease of vegetative growth phase and the prolonged reproductive growth phase. In the vegetative growth phase, the GDD and HDD increased, while the CDD decreased. In 1981-2007, the effective heat resources of double cropping rice in Jiangxi Province increased, low temperature risk reduced, while high temperature risk increased. The increment of the effective heat resources for double cropping rice was higher in northeast Jiangxi than in southwest Jiangxi, low temperature risk was higher in south Jiangxi than that in north Jiangxi, and high temperature risk was the highest in middle Jiangxi.}, }
@article {pmid22096175, year = {2011}, author = {Donner, SD and Kandlikar, M and Zerriffi, H}, title = {Environment and development. Preparing to manage climate change financing.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {334}, number = {6058}, pages = {908-909}, doi = {10.1126/science.1211886}, pmid = {22096175}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22096162, year = {2011}, author = {Larson, C}, title = {Climate change. An unsung carbon sink.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {334}, number = {6058}, pages = {886-887}, doi = {10.1126/science.334.6058.886-b}, pmid = {22096162}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22096161, year = {2011}, author = {Jiao, L and Stone, R}, title = {Climate change. China looks to balance its carbon books.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {334}, number = {6058}, pages = {886-887}, doi = {10.1126/science.334.6058.886-a}, pmid = {22096161}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22094650, year = {2011}, author = {}, title = {Climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {479}, number = {7373}, pages = {267-268}, doi = {10.1038/479267b}, pmid = {22094650}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*trends ; Global Warming/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; *International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid22094350, year = {2012}, author = {Graham, DE and Wallenstein, MD and Vishnivetskaya, TA and Waldrop, MP and Phelps, TJ and Pfiffner, SM and Onstott, TC and Whyte, LG and Rivkina, EM and Gilichinsky, DA and Elias, DA and Mackelprang, R and VerBerkmoes, NC and Hettich, RL and Wagner, D and Wullschleger, SD and Jansson, JK}, title = {Microbes in thawing permafrost: the unknown variable in the climate change equation.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {709-712}, pmid = {22094350}, issn = {1751-7370}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Cold Climate ; Human Activities ; Snow/*microbiology ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid22091994, year = {2012}, author = {Ajami, H and Meixner, T and Dominguez, F and Hogan, J and Maddock, T}, title = {Seasonalizing mountain system recharge in semi-arid basins-climate change impacts.}, journal = {Ground water}, volume = {50}, number = {4}, pages = {585-597}, doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2011.00881.x}, pmid = {22091994}, issn = {1745-6584}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Arizona ; *Climate Change ; *Groundwater ; Isotope Labeling ; *Rain ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate variability and change impact groundwater resources by altering recharge rates. In semi-arid Basin and Range systems, this impact is likely to be most pronounced in mountain system recharge (MSR), a process which constitutes a significant component of recharge in these basins. Despite its importance, the physical processes that control MSR have not been fully investigated because of limited observations and the complexity of recharge processes in mountainous catchments. As a result, empirical equations, that provide a basin-wide estimate of mean annual recharge using mean annual precipitation, are often used to estimate MSR. Here North American Regional Reanalysis data are used to develop seasonal recharge estimates using ratios of seasonal (winter vs. summer) precipitation to seasonal actual or potential evapotranspiration. These seasonal recharge estimates compared favorably to seasonal MSR estimates using the fraction of winter vs. summer recharge determined from isotopic data in the Upper San Pedro River Basin, Arizona. Development of hydrologically based seasonal ratios enhanced seasonal recharge predictions and notably allows evaluation of MSR response to changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature because of climate variability and change using Global Climate Model (GCM) climate projections. Results show that prospective variability in MSR depends on GCM precipitation predictions and on higher temperature. Lower seasonal MSR rates projected for 2050-2099 are associated with decreases in summer precipitation and increases in winter temperature. Uncertainty in seasonal MSR predictions arises from the potential evapotranspiration estimation method, the GCM downscaling technique and the exclusion of snowmelt processes.}, }
@article {pmid22091928, year = {2012}, author = {Mannelli, A and Bertolotti, L and Gern, L and Gray, J}, title = {Ecology of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in Europe: transmission dynamics in multi-host systems, influence of molecular processes and effects of climate change.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology reviews}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {837-861}, doi = {10.1111/j.1574-6976.2011.00312.x}, pmid = {22091928}, issn = {1574-6976}, mesh = {Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/microbiology ; Borrelia burgdorferi/genetics/isolation &amp; purification/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Europe/epidemiology ; Host Specificity ; Humans ; Ixodes/microbiology ; Lyme Disease/epidemiology/*microbiology/*transmission ; }, abstract = {The analysis of different multi-host systems suggests that even hosts that are not capable of transmitting Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) to the tick vector, Ixodes ricinus, or that are secondary reservoirs for these agents contribute to the intensity of transmission and to the overall risk of Lyme borreliosis, through the process of vector augmentation and pathogen amplification. On the other hand, above certain threshold densities, or in the presence of competition with primary reservoir hosts or low attachment rate of ticks to reservoir hosts, incompetent or less competent hosts may reduce transmission through dilution. The transmission of B. burgdorferi s.l. is affected by molecular processes at the tick-host interface including mechanisms for the protection of spirochaetes against the host's immune response. Molecular biology also increasingly provides important identification tools for the study of tick-borne disease agents. Ixodes ricinus and B. burgdorferi s.l. are expanding their geographical range to northern latitudes and to higher altitudes through the effects of climate change on host populations and on tick development, survival and seasonal activity. The integration of quantitative ecology with molecular methodology is central to a better understanding of the factors that determine the main components of Lyme borreliosis eco-epidemiology and should result in more accurate predictions of the effects of climate change on the circulation of pathogens in nature.}, }
@article {pmid22091216, year = {2011}, author = {Davydov, AN and Mikhailova, GV}, title = {Climate change and consequences in the Arctic: perception of climate change by the Nenets people of Vaigach Island.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.3402/gha.v4i0.8436}, pmid = {22091216}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Animal Husbandry ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Perception ; Population Groups/*psychology ; *Public Health ; Public Opinion ; *Quality of Life ; Reindeer ; Seasons ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Arctic climate change is already having a significant impact on the environment, economic activity, and public health. For the northern peoples, traditions and cultural identity are closely related to the natural environment so any change will have consequences for society in several ways.<br><br>METHODS: A questionnaire was given to the population on the Vaigach island, the Nenets who rely to a large degree on hunting, fishing and reindeer herding for survival. Semi-structured interviews were also conducted about perception of climate change.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change is observed and has already had an impact on daily life according to more than 50% of the respondents. The winter season is now colder and longer and the summer season colder and shorter. A decrease in standard of living was noticeable but few were planning to leave.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change has been noticed in the region and it has a negative impact on the standard of living for the Nenets. However, as of yet they do not want to leave as cultural identity is important for their overall well-being.}, }
@article {pmid22089748, year = {2011}, author = {Stott, R}, title = {What on earth we can do to tackle climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {343}, number = {}, pages = {d7386}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.d7386}, pmid = {22089748}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Public Health ; Research/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid22089746, year = {2011}, author = {O'Conor, R}, title = {Lessons from strategy game modelling climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {343}, number = {}, pages = {d7379}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.d7379}, pmid = {22089746}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Game Theory ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; }, }
@article {pmid22089745, year = {2011}, author = {Johnson, GA}, title = {Ways to communicate the threat of climate change to health.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {343}, number = {}, pages = {d7376}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.d7376}, pmid = {22089745}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communication ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Social Behavior ; }, }
@article {pmid22089737, year = {2011}, author = {Inglis, A}, title = {Are you serious about climate change, BMJ?.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {343}, number = {}, pages = {d7305}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.d7305}, pmid = {22089737}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Guidelines as Topic ; Humans ; *Periodicals as Topic ; *Publishing ; }, }
@article {pmid22087317, year = {2011}, author = {Chung, U and Mack, L and Yun, JI and Kim, SH}, title = {Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {e27439}, pmid = {22087317}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; District of Columbia ; Flowers/*physiology ; Forecasting ; Mid-Atlantic Region ; *Models, Biological ; Prunus/*physiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis 'Yoshino' and Prunus serrulata 'Kwanzan') in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r(2) = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r(2) = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = -2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC's A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines.}, }
@article {pmid22084626, year = {2011}, author = {Rylander, C and Odland, J&#xd8; and Sandanger, TM}, title = {Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {22084626}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Adult ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure ; Environmental Pollution/adverse effects ; Female ; Food Contamination ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect ; Housing ; Humans ; *Infant Welfare ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; *Maternal Welfare ; Pregnancy ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed specifically considering their exposure and sensitivity to long range transported contaminants.<br><br>METHODS: Considering that the different parts of pregnancy are particularly sensitive time periods for the effects of environmental exposure, this review focuses on the impacts on maternal and newborn health. Environmental stressors known to affects human health and how these will change with the predicted climate change are addressed. Air pollution and food security are crucial issues for the pregnant population in a changing climate, especially indoor climate and food security in Arctic areas.<br><br>RESULTS: The total number of environmental factors is today responsible for a large number of the global deaths, especially in young children. Climate change will most likely lead to an increase in this number. Exposure to the different environmental stressors especially air pollution will in most parts of the world increase with climate change, even though some areas might face lower exposure. Populations at risk today are believed to be most heavily affected. As for the persistent organic pollutants a warming climate leads to a remobilisation and a possible increase in food chain exposure in the Arctic and thus increased risk for Arctic populations. This is especially the case for mercury. The perspective for the next generations will be closely connected to the expected temperature changes; changes in housing conditions; changes in exposure patterns; predicted increased exposure to Mercury because of increased emissions and increased biological availability.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A number of environmental stressors are predicted to increase with climate change and increasingly affecting human health. Efforts should be put on reducing risk for the next generation, thus global politics and research effort should focus on maternal and newborn health.}, }
@article {pmid22084086, year = {2011}, author = {Franssen, SU and Gu, J and Bergmann, N and Winters, G and Klostermeier, UC and Rosenstiel, P and Bornberg-Bauer, E and Reusch, TB}, title = {Transcriptomic resilience to global warming in the seagrass Zostera marina, a marine foundation species.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {48}, pages = {19276-19281}, pmid = {22084086}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*physiology ; DNA, Complementary/genetics ; Denmark ; Ecology/methods ; Expressed Sequence Tags ; Gene Expression Profiling/*methods ; Gene Expression Regulation/*physiology ; Genomics/methods ; Geography ; *Global Warming ; Heat-Shock Proteins/metabolism ; Italy ; Mediterranean Sea ; Multivariate Analysis ; North Sea ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Temperature ; Zosteraceae/genetics/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Large-scale transcription profiling via direct cDNA sequencing provides important insights as to how foundation species cope with increasing climatic extremes predicted under global warming. Species distributed along a thermal cline, such as the ecologically important seagrass Zostera marina, provide an opportunity to assess temperature effects on gene expression as a function of their long-term adaptation to heat stress. We exposed a southern and northern European population of Zostera marina from contrasting thermal environments to a realistic heat wave in a common-stress garden. In a fully crossed experiment, eight cDNA libraries, each comprising ~125 000 reads, were obtained during and after a simulated heat wave, along with nonstressed control treatments. Although gene-expression patterns during stress were similar in both populations and were dominated by classical heat-shock proteins, transcription profiles diverged after the heat wave. Gene-expression patterns in southern genotypes returned to control values immediately, but genotypes from the northern site failed to recover and revealed the induction of genes involved in protein degradation, indicating failed metabolic compensation to high sea-surface temperature. We conclude that the return of gene-expression patterns during recovery provides critical information on thermal adaptation in aquatic habitats under climatic stress. As a unifying concept for ecological genomics, we propose transcriptomic resilience, analogous to ecological resilience, as an important measure to predict the tolerance of individuals and hence the fate of local populations in the face of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid22081261, year = {2012}, author = {Richter, S and Kipfer, T and Wohlgemuth, T and Calderón Guerrero, C and Ghazoul, J and Moser, B}, title = {Phenotypic plasticity facilitates resistance to climate change in a highly variable environment.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {169}, number = {1}, pages = {269-279}, pmid = {22081261}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Environment ; Genetic Variation ; Genotype ; Mediterranean Region ; *Phenotype ; Pinus/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Pinus sylvestris/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Plant Roots/genetics/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Seedlings/genetics/growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {Increased summer drought will exacerbate the regeneration of many tree species at their lower latitudinal and altitudinal distribution limits. In vulnerable habitats, introduction of more drought-tolerant provenances or species is currently considered to accelerate tree species migration and facilitate forest persistence. Trade-offs between drought adaptation and growth plasticity might, however, limit the effectiveness of assisted migration, especially if introductions focus on provenances or species from different climatic regions. We tested in a common garden experiment the performance of Pinus sylvestris seedlings from the continental Central Alps under increased temperatures and extended spring and/or summer drought, and compared seedling emergence, survival and biomass allocation to that of P. sylvestris and closely related Pinus nigra from a Mediterranean seed source. Soil heating had only minor effects on seedling performance but high spring precipitation doubled the number of continental P. sylvestris seedlings present after the summer drought. At the same time, twice as many seedlings of the Mediterranean than the continental P. sylvestris provenance were present, which was due to both higher emergence and lower mortality under dry conditions. Both P. sylvestris provenances allocated similar amounts of biomass to roots when grown under low summer precipitation. Mediterranean seedlings, however, revealed lower phenotypic plasticity than continental seedlings under high precipitation, which might limit their competitive ability in continental Alpine forests in non-drought years. By contrast, high variability in the response of individual seedlings to summer drought indicates the potential of continental P. sylvestris provenances to adapt to changing environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid22076365, year = {2011}, author = {Hulme, M and O'Neill, SJ and Dessai, S}, title = {Climate change. Is weather event attribution necessary for adaptation funding?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {334}, number = {6057}, pages = {764-765}, doi = {10.1126/science.1211740}, pmid = {22076365}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid22075377, year = {2012}, author = {Bryson, RW and García-Vázquez, UO and Riddle, BR}, title = {Relative roles of Neogene vicariance and Quaternary climate change on the historical diversification of bunchgrass lizards (Sceloporus scalaris group) in Mexico.}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {62}, number = {1}, pages = {447-457}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2011.10.014}, pmid = {22075377}, issn = {1095-9513}, mesh = {Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Calibration ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Fossils ; *Genetic Speciation ; Likelihood Functions ; Lizards/classification/*genetics ; Male ; Markov Chains ; Mexico ; Mitochondrial Proton-Translocating ATPases/genetics ; NADH Dehydrogenase/genetics ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; RNA, Transfer/genetics ; Reptilian Proteins/genetics ; Skin Pigmentation ; }, abstract = {Neogene vicariance during the Miocene and Pliocene and Quaternary climate change have synergistically driven diversification in Mexican highland taxa. We investigated the impacts of these processes on genetic diversification in the widely distributed bunchgrass lizards in the Sceloporus scalaris group. We searched for correlations between timing in diversification and timing of (1) a period of marked volcanism across the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt in central Mexico 3-7.5million years ago (Ma) and (2) a transition to larger glacial-interglacial cycles during the mid-Pleistocene. From our phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA we identified two major clades that contained 13 strongly supported lineages. One clade contained lineages from the two northern sierras of Mexico, and the other clade included lineages associated with the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt and Central Mexican Plateau. Results provided support for Neogene divergences within the S. scalaris group in response to uplift of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, a pattern observed in several co-distributed taxa, and suggested that Quaternary climate change likely had little effect on diversification between lineages. Uplift of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt during specific time periods appears to have strongly impacted diversification in Mexican highland taxa.}, }
@article {pmid22073651, year = {2011}, author = {Sanz-Lázaro, C and Valdemarsen, T and Marín, A and Holmer, M}, title = {Effect of temperature on biogeochemistry of marine organic-enriched systems: implications in a global warming scenario.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {21}, number = {7}, pages = {2664-2677}, doi = {10.1890/10-2219.1}, pmid = {22073651}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon/chemistry/metabolism ; Carbon Cycle ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry/metabolism ; *Ecosystem ; Geologic Sediments/*chemistry ; *Global Warming ; Iron/chemistry ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen/chemistry/metabolism ; Oxygen Consumption ; Polychaeta/*physiology ; Sulfides/chemistry ; Sulfur/chemistry/metabolism ; *Temperature ; Water/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Coastal biogeochemical cycles are expected to be affected by global warming. By means of a mesocosm experiment, the effect of increased water temperature on the biogeochemical cycles of coastal sediments affected by organic-matter enrichment was tested, focusing on the carbon, sulfur, and iron cycles. Nereis diversicolor was used as a model species to simulate macrofaunal bioirrigation activity in natural sediments. Although bioirrigation rates of N. diversicolor were not temperature dependent, temperature did have a major effect on the sediment metabolism. Under organic-enrichment conditions, the increase in sediment metabolism was greater than expected and occurred through the enhancement of anaerobic metabolic pathway rates, mainly sulfate reduction. There was a twofold increase in sediment metabolism and the accumulation of reduced sulfur. The increase in the benthic metabolism was maintained by the supply of electron acceptors through bioirrigation and as a result of the availability of iron in the sediment. As long as the sediment buffering capacity toward sulfides is not surpassed, an increase in temperature might promote the recovery of organic-enriched sediments by decreasing the time for mineralization of excess organic matter.}, }
@article {pmid22073633, year = {2011}, author = {Thompson, JR and Foster, DR and Scheller, R and Kittredge, D}, title = {The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {21}, number = {7}, pages = {2425-2444}, doi = {10.1890/10-2383.1}, pmid = {22073633}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Biomass ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Human Activities ; Massachusetts ; Models, Theoretical ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010-2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create "probability-of-conversion" and "probability-of-harvest" zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naive assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses.}, }
@article {pmid22073236, year = {2011}, author = {Dejean, A and Céréghino, R and Carpenter, JM and Corbara, B and Hérault, B and Rossi, V and Leponce, M and Orivel, J and Bonal, D}, title = {Climate change impact on neotropical social wasps.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {e27004}, pmid = {22073236}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; French Guiana ; Wasps/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997-2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals.}, }
@article {pmid22073028, year = {2011}, author = {Hogan, A and Bode, A and Berry, H}, title = {Farmer health and adaptive capacity in the face of climate change and variability. Part 2: Contexts, personal attributes and behaviors.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {4055-4068}, pmid = {22073028}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Adult ; Aged ; *Agriculture ; *Attitude to Health ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Cluster Analysis ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Decision Making ; Female ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Rural Health ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {This study extends the emerging body of research on farmer adaptation to climate change, by segmenting farmers on the basis of specific attributes (health, values, belief about climate change, sense of responsibility for climate change, desire to change, social, human and financial capitals and farmer demographics) and considering such attributes as critical social aspects of the contextualized capacity to adapt. The segmental analysis was based on a nationally representative sample of 3,993 farmers concerned with farmer adaptation of climate risks. The resulting data were subjected to two-step cluster analysis to identify homogenous groups of farmers based on factors related to climate change adaptation. A three-cluster solution was identified wherein farmers were distinguishable on the basis of belief in climate change, desire for financial assistance and advice, social connectedness, information seeking, and adverse farm conditions. The largest group (Cluster 1: 55%) was characterized by farmers who recognized being affected by drought and drying and who were actively engaged in adaptive practices, despite the fact that they had little income and poor farm resources. One third of these farmers reported that their health was a barrier to sustained activity in farming. Cluster 2 (26%) was characterized by farmers not readily affected by drying, who enjoyed good incomes, good health and better farming conditions. They expressed little desire to adapt. The smallest cluster (Cluster 3: 19%) was also characterized by farmers who recognized that they were affected by drying. However, despite a desire to adapt, they had very little means to do so. They reported the poorest natural resources and the poorest health, despite being younger. The findings suggest that it is the intent to adapt, starting from where people are at, which is a more important indicator of the capacity to work towards sustainable practices than assets tests alone.}, }
@article {pmid22073027, year = {2011}, author = {Berry, HL and Hogan, A and Ng, SP and Parkinson, A}, title = {Farmer health and adaptive capacity in the face of climate change and variability. Part 1: Health as a contributor to adaptive capacity and as an outcome from pressures coping with climate related adversities.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {4039-4054}, pmid = {22073027}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Adult ; Aged ; *Agriculture ; *Attitude to Health ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Decision Making ; Female ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Linear Models ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Rural Health ; Social Support ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {This paper examines the role farmers' health plays as an element of adaptive capacity. The study examines which of twenty aspects of adaptation may be related to overall health outcomes, controlling for demographic and on-farm-factors in health problems. The analysis is based on 3,993 farmers' responses to a national survey of climate risk and adaptation. Hierarchical linear regression modelling was used examine the extent to which, in a multivariate analysis, the use of adaptive practices was predictively associated with self-assessed health, taking into account the farmer's rating of whether their health was a barrier to undertaking farm work. We present two models, one excluding pre-existing health (model 1) and one including pre-existing health (model 2). The first model accounted for 21% of the variance. In this model better health was most strongly predicted by an absence of on-farm risk, greater financial viability, greater debt pressures, younger age and a desire to continue farming. Social capital (trust and reciprocity) was moderately associated with health as was the intention to adopt more sustainable practices. The second model (including the farmers' health as a barrier to undertaking farm work) accounted for 43% of the variance. Better health outcomes were most strongly explained, in order of magnitude, by the absence of pre-existing health problems, greater access to social support, greater financial viability, greater debt pressures, a desire to continue farming and the condition of on-farm resources. Model 2 was a more parsimonious model (only nine predictors, compared with 15 in model 1), and explained twice as much variance in health outcomes. These results suggest that (i) pre-existing health problems are a very important factor to consider when designing adaptation programs and policies and (ii) these problems may mediate or modify the relationship between adaptation and health.}, }
@article {pmid22072451, year = {2012}, author = {Moore, S and Shrestha, S and Tomlinson, KW and Vuong, H}, title = {Predicting the effect of climate change on African trypanosomiasis: integrating epidemiology with parasite and vector biology.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society, Interface}, volume = {9}, number = {70}, pages = {817-830}, pmid = {22072451}, issn = {1742-5662}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Feeding Behavior ; Female ; Humans ; Insect Bites and Stings ; Insect Vectors/*physiology ; Male ; *Models, Biological ; Temperature ; Trypanosoma brucei brucei/*physiology ; Trypanosomiasis, African/epidemiology/*parasitology ; Tsetse Flies/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate warming over the next century is expected to have a large impact on the interactions between pathogens and their animal and human hosts. Vector-borne diseases are particularly sensitive to warming because temperature changes can alter vector development rates, shift their geographical distribution and alter transmission dynamics. For this reason, African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), a vector-borne disease of humans and animals, was recently identified as one of the 12 infectious diseases likely to spread owing to climate change. We combine a variety of direct effects of temperature on vector ecology, vector biology and vector-parasite interactions via a disease transmission model and extrapolate the potential compounding effects of projected warming on the epidemiology of African trypanosomiasis. The model predicts that epidemics can occur when mean temperatures are between 20.7°C and 26.1°C. Our model does not predict a large-range expansion, but rather a large shift of up to 60 per cent in the geographical extent of the range. The model also predicts that 46-77 million additional people may be at risk of exposure by 2090. Future research could expand our analysis to include other environmental factors that influence tsetse populations and disease transmission such as humidity, as well as changes to human, livestock and wildlife distributions. The modelling approach presented here provides a framework for using the climate-sensitive aspects of vector and pathogen biology to predict changes in disease prevalence and risk owing to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22072284, year = {2012}, author = {Gvozdík, L}, title = {Plasticity of preferred body temperatures as means of coping with climate change?.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {262-265}, pmid = {22072284}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; *Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Selection, Genetic ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Thermoregulatory behaviour represents an important component of ectotherm non-genetic adaptive capacity that mitigates the impact of ongoing climate change. The buffering role of behavioural thermoregulation has been attributed solely to the ability to maintain near optimal body temperature for sufficiently extended periods under altered thermal conditions. The widespread occurrence of plastic modification of target temperatures that an ectotherm aims to achieve (preferred body temperatures) has been largely overlooked. I argue that plasticity of target temperatures may significantly contribute to an ectotherm's adaptive capacity. Its contribution to population persistence depends on both the effectiveness of acute thermoregulatory adjustments (reactivity) in buffering selection pressures in a changing thermal environment, and the total costs of thermoregulation (i.e. reactivity and plasticity) in a given environment. The direction and magnitude of plastic shifts in preferred body temperatures can be incorporated into mechanistic models, to improve predictions of the impact of global climate change on ectotherm populations.}, }
@article {pmid22072175, year = {2011}, author = {Wilson, N and Chapman, R and Howden-Chapman, P}, title = {End-of-term review of the New Zealand Government's response to climate change: a public health perspective.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {124}, number = {1345}, pages = {90-95}, pmid = {22072175}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Government ; Humans ; New Zealand ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid22071034, year = {2012}, author = {White-Newsome, JL and Sánchez, BN and Jolliet, O and Zhang, Z and Parker, EA and Dvonch, JT and O'Neill, MS}, title = {Climate change and health: indoor heat exposure in vulnerable populations.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {112}, number = {}, pages = {20-27}, pmid = {22071034}, issn = {1096-0953}, support = {T42 OH008455/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; R01ES016932/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 ES016932/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES017885/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; 2T42OH008455/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States ; R18 EH000348/EH/NCEH CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Aged ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Housing/*standards ; Humans ; Michigan ; Models, Theoretical ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Urban Health/*standards ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: Climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and hot weather in many urban environments. Older people are more vulnerable to heat exposure but spend most of their time indoors. Few published studies have addressed indoor heat exposure in residences occupied by an elderly population. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between outdoor and indoor temperatures in homes occupied by the elderly and determine other predictors of indoor temperature.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: We collected hourly indoor temperature measurements of 30 different homes; outdoor temperature, dewpoint temperature, and solar radiation data during summer 2009 in Detroit, MI. We used mixed linear regression to model indoor temperatures' responsiveness to weather, housing and environmental characteristics, and evaluated our ability to predict indoor heat exposures based on outdoor conditions.<br><br>RESULTS: Average maximum indoor temperature for all locations was 34.85&#xb0;C, 13.8&#xb0;C higher than average maximum outdoor temperature. Indoor temperatures of single family homes constructed of vinyl paneling or wood siding were more sensitive than brick homes to outdoor temperature changes and internal heat gains. Outdoor temperature, solar radiation, and dewpoint temperature predicted 38% of the variability of indoor temperatures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Indoor exposures to heat in Detroit exceed the comfort range among elderly occupants, and can be predicted using outdoor temperatures, characteristics of the housing stock and surroundings to improve heat exposure assessment for epidemiological investigations. Weatherizing homes and modifying home surroundings could mitigate indoor heat exposure among the elderly.}, }
@article {pmid22070270, year = {2011}, author = {Hannah, L}, title = {Climate change, connectivity, and conservation success.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1139-1142}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01788.x}, pmid = {22070270}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends ; Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; }, }
@article {pmid22069801, year = {2011}, author = {Verhoeven, H}, title = {Climate change, conflict and development in Sudan: global neo-Malthusian narratives and local power struggles.}, journal = {Development and change}, volume = {42}, number = {3}, pages = {679-707}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-7660.2011.01707.x}, pmid = {22069801}, issn = {0012-155X}, mesh = {*Civil Disorders/economics/ethnology/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/psychology ; *Climate Change/economics/history ; Food Safety ; *Food Supply/economics/history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Population Dynamics/history ; Power, Psychological ; Sudan/ethnology ; }, abstract = {Dystopian accounts of climate change posit that it will lead to more conflict, causing state failure and mass population movements. Yet these narratives are both theoretically and empirically problematic: the conflict–environment hypothesis merges a global securitization agenda with local manipulations of Northern fears about the state of planetary ecology. Sudan has experienced how damaging this fusion of wishful thinking, power politics and top-down development can be. In the 1970s, global resource scarcity concerns were used locally to impose the fata morgana of Sudan as an Arab-African breadbasket: in the name of development, violent evictions of local communities contributed to Sudan's second civil war and associated famines. Today, Darfur has been labelled ‘the world's first climate change conflict’, masking the long-term political-economic dynamics and Sudanese agency underpinning the crisis. Simultaneously, the global food crisis is instrumentalized to launch a dam programme and agricultural revival that claim to be African answers to resource scarcity. The winners, however, are Sudan's globalized Islamist elites and foreign investors, whilst the livelihoods of local communities are undermined. Important links exist between climatic developments and security, but global Malthusian narratives about state failure and conflict are dangerously susceptible to manipulations by national elites; the practical outcomes decrease rather than increase human security. In the climate change era, the breakdown of institutions and associated violence is often not an unfortunate failure of the old system due to environmental shock, but a strategy of elites in wider processes of power and wealth accumulation and contestation.}, }
@article {pmid22068410, year = {2011}, author = {Knowlton, K and Rotkin-Ellman, M and Geballe, L and Max, W and Solomon, GM}, title = {Six climate change-related events in the United States accounted for about $14 billion in lost lives and health costs.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {30}, number = {11}, pages = {2167-2176}, doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2011.0229}, pmid = {22068410}, issn = {1544-5208}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Databases, Factual ; Disasters/*economics ; Disease Outbreaks ; Environmental Pollution ; Fires ; Floods ; Health Care Costs/*history ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Mortality/*trends ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The future health costs associated with predicted climate change-related events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods are projected to be enormous. This article estimates the health costs associated with six climate change-related events that struck the United States between 2000 and 2009. The six case studies came from categories of climate change-related events projected to worsen with continued global warming-ozone pollution, heat waves, hurricanes, infectious disease outbreaks, river flooding, and wildfires. We estimate that the health costs exceeded $14 billion, with 95 percent due to the value of lives lost prematurely. Actual health care costs were an estimated $740 million. This reflects more than 760,000 encounters with the health care system. Our analysis provides scientists and policy makers with a methodology to use in estimating future health costs related to climate change and highlights the growing need for public health preparedness.}, }
@article {pmid22058675, year = {2011}, author = {Havens, C and Mallin, J}, title = {Climate Change: It's Not About the Weather-Continuing Medical Education and Maintenance of Certification and Licensure.}, journal = {The Permanente journal}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {88-92}, pmid = {22058675}, issn = {1552-5775}, }
@article {pmid22054320, year = {2011}, author = {Ballard, T}, title = {Climate change and health: time to adopt environmental probity?.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {61}, number = {592}, pages = {682-683}, pmid = {22054320}, issn = {1478-5242}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*organization &amp; administration ; General Practice/*ethics ; Humans ; Physician-Patient Relations ; Trust ; }, }
@article {pmid22052019, year = {2012}, author = {Duchêne, E and Butterlin, G and Dumas, V and Merdinoglu, D}, title = {Towards the adaptation of grapevine varieties to climate change: QTLs and candidate genes for developmental stages.}, journal = {TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik}, volume = {124}, number = {4}, pages = {623-635}, pmid = {22052019}, issn = {1432-2242}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Chromosome Mapping ; Chromosomes, Plant/genetics ; *Climate Change ; Crosses, Genetic ; Fruit/*genetics ; *Genes, Plant ; Genotype ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Phenotype ; *Quantitative Trait Loci ; Vitis/*genetics/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The genetic determinism of developmental stages in grapevine was studied in the progeny of a cross between grapevine cultivars Riesling and Gewurztraminer by combining ecophysiological modelling, genetic analysis and data mining of the grapevine whole genome sequence. The dates of three phenological stages, budbreak, flowering and veraison, were recorded during four successive years for 120 genotypes in the vineyard. The phenotypic data analysed were the duration of three periods expressed in thermal time (degree-days): 15 February to budbreak (Bud), budbreak to flowering (Flo) and flowering to veraison (Ver). Parental and consensus genetic maps were built using 153 microsatellite markers on 188 individuals. Six independent quantitative trait loci (QTLs) were detected for the three phases. They were located on chromosomes 4 and 19 for Bud, chromosomes 7 and 14 for Flo and chromosomes 16 and 18 for Ver. Interactions were detected between loci and also between alleles at the same locus. Using the available grapevine whole-genome sequences, candidate genes underlying the QTLs were identified. VvFT, on chromosome 7, and a CONSTANS-like gene, on chromosome 14, were found to colocalise with the QTLs for flowering time. Genes related to the abscisic acid response and to sugar metabolism were detected within the confidence intervals of QTLs for veraison time. Their possible roles in the developmental process are discussed. These results raise new hypotheses for a better understanding of the physiological processes governing grapevine phenology and provide a framework for breeding new varieties adapted to the future predicted climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid22051672, year = {2011}, author = {Sriver, RL}, title = {Climate change: Man-made cyclones.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {479}, number = {7371}, pages = {50-51}, pmid = {22051672}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Aerosols/*analysis ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Cyclonic Storms/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Soot/*analysis ; *Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid22049759, year = {2011}, author = {Einfalt, T and Quirmbach, M and Langstädtler, G and Mehlig, B}, title = {Climate change tendencies observable in the rainfall measurements since 1950 in the federal land of North Rhine-Westphalia and their consequences for urban hydrology.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {63}, number = {11}, pages = {2633-2640}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2011.165}, pmid = {22049759}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Cities ; *Climate Change ; Germany ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change is present in climatological models - but did we already observe changes in the past measurement data? For the state of North Rhine Westphalia, the rainfall measurements since 1950 have been systematically analysed in order to find out whether there have already been trends and whether the behaviour of rainfall has changed in time. More than 600 station series have been screened for use in the project and quality controlled. Implausible data were discarded. For the analysis, standard values such as yearly sums, half-yearly sums, monthly sums, number of dry days, number of days with precipitation above a threshold, partial time series and extreme values statistics have been calculated and evaluated. Results show that also in the past 50 years, changes in precipitation regime could be observed. These changes have been regionally different. Consequences for urban hydrology include a development of more flexible design approaches.}, }
@article {pmid22049726, year = {2011}, author = {Morita, M}, title = {Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {63}, number = {12}, pages = {2967-2974}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2011.172}, pmid = {22049726}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Disaster Planning/economics/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Floods ; Geographic Information Systems ; *Models, Theoretical ; Probability ; Risk Assessment ; *Rivers ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.}, }
@article {pmid22049701, year = {2011}, author = {Han, MY and Mun, JS}, title = {Operational data of the Star City rainwater harvesting system and its role as a climate change adaptation and a social influence.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {63}, number = {12}, pages = {2796-2801}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2011.597}, pmid = {22049701}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods/trends ; Equipment Design ; Facility Design and Construction ; *Rain ; Republic of Korea ; Social Change ; *Water Movements ; *Water Supply/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/standards ; }, abstract = {The Star City rainwater harvesting system (RWHS) was featured in the December, 2008, issue of Water 21. The article highlighted that the RWHS has a 3,000 m3 rainwater tank used in water saving, flood mitigation, and emergency response. Since then, many news media, public officials, and people from both South Korea and abroad have visited the RWHS. In this paper, two years of the system's operational data are presented and its role in short- and long-term climate change adaptation is investigated. The downstream sewer system has become safe for a 50-year rainfall without upgrading the existing sewer system, which was designed for a 10-year period. The 26,000 m3 of water saved has reduced the energy requirement of transferring water from a distant area. The success of the Star City RWHS has influenced 47 cities across South Korea, including Seoul, to enact regulations on rainwater management. It has shown that decentralized rainwater management can supplement the existing centralized system to ensure its safety.}, }
@article {pmid22048893, year = {2012}, author = {White, SR and Carlyle, CN and Fraser, LH and Cahill, JF}, title = {Climate change experiments in temperate grasslands: synthesis and future directions.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {484-487}, pmid = {22048893}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Geography ; Herbivory/physiology ; Poaceae/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The immediate need to understand the complex responses of grasslands to climate change, to ensure food supplies and to mitigate future climate change through carbon sequestration, necessitate a global, synthesized approach. Numerous manipulative experiments have altered temperature or precipitation, often in conjunction with other interacting factors such as grazing, to understand potential effects of climate change on the ecological integrity of temperate grasslands and understand the mechanisms of change. Although the different ways in which temperature and precipitation may change to effect grasslands were well represented, variability in methodology limited generalizations. Results from these experiments were also largely mixed and complex; thus, a broad understanding of temperate grassland responses to these factors remains elusive. A collaboration based on a set of globally dispersed, inexpensive experiments with consistent methodology would provide the data needed to better understand responses of temperate grassland to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22046792, year = {2011}, author = {Luchian, AM and Pricop, M}, title = {[Borderline ovarian tumors and global radiation in relation with climate change impact].}, journal = {Revista medico-chirurgicala a Societatii de Medici si Naturalisti din Iasi}, volume = {115}, number = {3}, pages = {813-819}, pmid = {22046792}, issn = {0048-7848}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Brenner Tumor/epidemiology/*etiology/pathology/surgery ; Cell Transformation, Neoplastic ; *Climate Change ; Cosmic Radiation/*adverse effects ; Cystadenoma, Mucinous/epidemiology/*etiology/pathology/surgery ; Cystadenoma, Serous/epidemiology/*etiology/pathology/surgery ; Diagnosis, Differential ; Disease Progression ; Female ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Neoplasm Invasiveness ; Ovarian Neoplasms/epidemiology/*etiology/pathology/surgery ; Prognosis ; Retrospective Studies ; Romania/epidemiology ; Treatment Outcome ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: There is limited information on borderline ovarian tumor detected intra-surgically and its most favorable treatment in relation with global radiation and climate changes.<br><br>AIM: To study the pre-surgery and intra-surgery differentiation criteria of borderline ovarian tumors from invasive carcinoma, and to make a very complex analysis of the frequency, distribution, and variation in time of global radiation, temperature, and precipitation in North-East Romania.<br><br>MATERIAL AND METHOD: The 54 patients (age range 20-78 years, mean age 46 years) included in this study had borderline ovarian tumors surgically treated during the last 22 years (January 1988 - December 2009) at the 4th Gynecological Clinic at Ia&#x15f;i, and representing 4.87% of the total 1107 ovarian tumors detected and treated during this interval. The histological types were: serous (18 cases), mucinous (27 cases), mixed (8 cases), and Brenner tumor (1 case). In order to analyze the impact of climate changes on borderline ovarian tumors a thorough study on the frequency of global radiation in relation with climate changes based on data recorded in the last 55 years was also carried out.<br><br>RESULTS: The distribution of these cases depending on when surgery was performed was analyzed. In our study the frequency of ovarian borderline tumors (4.87%) is lower than in similar reports in the literature being due, in our opinion, to the influence of global radiation in relation with climate changes.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In our study global radiation is probably responsible for a progression to invasive carcinoma in 0.7% of the borderline ovarian tumors.}, }
@article {pmid22046163, year = {2011}, author = {Kleynhans, E and Terblanche, JS}, title = {Complex Interactions between Temperature and Relative Humidity on Water Balance of Adult Tsetse (Glossinidae, Diptera): Implications for Climate Change.}, journal = {Frontiers in physiology}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {74}, pmid = {22046163}, issn = {1664-042X}, abstract = {Insect water balance plays an important role in determining energy budgets, activity patterns, survival, and population dynamics and, hence, geographic distribution. Tsetse (Glossina spp.) are important vectors of human and animal disease occupying a wide range of habitats in Africa and are notable for their desiccation resistance in xeric environments. Here, we measure water balance and related traits [water loss rate (WLR), body water content (BWC), body lipid content (BLC) and body mass] in adult flies across a range of temperature (20-30°C) and relative humidity (0-99%) combinations in four tsetse species from both xeric and mesic habitats. WLRs were significantly affected by measurement under different temperature and relative humidity combinations, while BWC, BLC, and body mass were less affected. These results provide support for mass-independent inter- and intra-specific variation in WLRs and survival times. Furthermore, water balance responses to variation in temperature and relative humidity are complex in Glossina, and this response varies within and among species, subgroups, and ecotypes in terms of both magnitude of effects and the direction of change. Different effects of temperature and relative humidity within and among experimental conditions and species suggests cuticular permeability and saturation deficit are likely to be key factors in forecasting tsetse water balance responses to climate variability. This complicates potential forecasting of tsetse distribution in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid22043218, year = {2011}, author = {Furberg, M and Evengård, B and Nilsson, M}, title = {Facing the limit of resilience: perceptions of climate change among reindeer herding Sami in Sweden.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {22043218}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Animal Husbandry/*methods/trends ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Population Groups/*psychology ; *Reindeer ; Seasons ; *Stress, Psychological ; Sweden ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The Arctic area is a part of the globe where the increase in global temperature has had the earliest noticeable effect and indigenous peoples, including the Swedish reindeer herding Sami, are amongst the first to be affected by these changes.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To explore the experiences and perceptions of climate change among Swedish reindeer herding Sami.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: In-depth interviews with 14 Swedish reindeer herding Sami were performed, with purposive sampling. The interviews focused on the herders experiences of climate change, observed consequences and thoughts about this. The interviews were analysed using content analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: One core theme emerged from the interviews: facing the limit of resilience. Swedish reindeer-herding Sami perceive climate change as yet another stressor in their daily struggle. They have experienced severe and more rapidly shifting, unstable weather with associated changes in vegetation and alterations in the freeze-thaw cycle, all of which affect reindeer herding. The forecasts about climate change from authorities and scientists have contributed to stress and anxiety. Other societal developments have lead to decreased flexibility that obstructs adaptation. Some adaptive strategies are discordant with the traditional life of reindeer herding, and there is a fear among the Sami of being the last generation practising traditional reindeer herding.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The study illustrates the vulnerable situation of the reindeer herders and that climate change impact may have serious consequences for the trade and their overall way of life. Decision makers on all levels, both in Sweden and internationally, need improved insights into these complex issues to be able to make adequate decisions about adaptive climate change strategies.}, }
@article {pmid22043217, year = {2011}, author = {Evengard, B and Berner, J and Brubaker, M and Mulvad, G and Revich, B}, title = {Climate change and water security with a focus on the Arctic.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {22043217}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Water Cycle ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Water is of fundamental importance for human life; access to water of good quality is of vital concern for mankind. Currently however, the situation is under severe pressure due to several stressors that have a clear impact on access to water. In the Arctic, climate change is having an impact on water availability by melting glaciers, decreasing seasonal rates of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration, and drying lakes and rivers existing in permafrost grounds. Water quality is also being impacted as manmade pollutants stored in the environment are released, lowland areas are flooded with salty ocean water during storms, turbidity from permafrost-driven thaw and erosion is increased, and the growth or emergence of natural pollutants are increased. By 2030 it is estimated that the world will need to produce 50% more food and energy which means a continuous increase in demand for water. Decisionmakers will have to very clearly include life quality aspects of future generations in the work as impact of ongoing changes will be noticeable, in many cases, in the future. This article will focus on effects of climate-change on water security with an Arctic perspective giving some examples from different countries how arising problems are being addressed.}, }
@article {pmid22035940, year = {2012}, author = {Liu, X and Jiang, S and Zhang, P and Xu, L}, title = {Effect of recent climate change on Arctic Pb pollution: a comparative study of historical records in lake and peat sediments.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {160}, number = {1}, pages = {161-168}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2011.09.019}, pmid = {22035940}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Climate Change/*history ; Geologic Sediments/*analysis ; History, 15th Century ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; History, Ancient ; History, Medieval ; Lakes/*analysis ; Lead/*analysis ; Water Pollution, Chemical/analysis/*history ; }, abstract = {Historical changes of anthropogenic Pb pollution were reconstructed based on Pb concentrations and isotope ratios in lake and peat sediment profiles from Ny-Ålesund of Arctic. The calculated excess Pb isotope ratios showed that Pb pollution largely came from west Europe and Russia. The peat profile clearly reflected the historical changes of atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic Pb into Ny-Ålesund, and the result showed that anthropogenic Pb peaked at 1960s-1970s, and thereafter a significant recovery was observed by a rapid increase of (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios and a remarkable decrease in anthropogenic Pb contents. In contrast to the peat record, the longer lake record showed relatively high anthropogenic Pb contents and a persistent decrease of (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios within the uppermost samples, suggesting that climate-sensitive processes such as catchment erosion and meltwater runoff might have influenced the recent change of Pb pollution record in the High Arctic lake sediments.}, }
@article {pmid22035926, year = {2012}, author = {Matyssek, R and Wieser, G and Calfapietra, C and de Vries, W and Dizengremel, P and Ernst, D and Jolivet, Y and Mikkelsen, TN and Mohren, GM and Le Thiec, D and Tuovinen, JP and Weatherall, A and Paoletti, E}, title = {Forests under climate change and air pollution: gaps in understanding and future directions for research.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {160}, number = {1}, pages = {57-65}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2011.07.007}, pmid = {22035926}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Research/*trends ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems ("supersites") will be conducive to addressing these gaps by enabling integration of experimentation and modelling within the soil-plant-atmosphere interface, as well as further model development.}, }
@article {pmid22034418, year = {2011}, author = {de Sherbinin, A and Castro, M and Gemenne, F and Cernea, MM and Adamo, S and Fearnside, PM and Krieger, G and Lahmani, S and Oliver-Smith, A and Pankhurst, A and Scudder, T and Singer, B and Tan, Y and Wannier, G and Boncour, P and Ehrhart, C and Hugo, G and Pandey, B and Shi, G}, title = {Climate change. Preparing for resettlement associated with climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {334}, number = {6055}, pages = {456-457}, doi = {10.1126/science.1208821}, pmid = {22034418}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Emigration and Immigration ; Environment ; Human Rights ; Humans ; Public Health ; Social Change ; }, }
@article {pmid22028678, year = {2011}, author = {Tokarevich, NK and Tronin, AA and Blinova, OV and Buzinov, RV and Boltenkov, VP and Yurasova, ED and Nurse, J}, title = {The impact of climate change on the expansion of Ixodes persulcatus habitat and the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in the north of European Russia.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {8448}, pmid = {22028678}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors ; Ecosystem ; Encephalitis Viruses, Tick-Borne ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/*epidemiology/etiology/virology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Ixodes ; Population Dynamics ; Russia/epidemiology ; Tick Infestations/*epidemiology/virology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The increase in tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence is observed in recent decades in a number of subarctic countries. The reasons of it are widely discussed in scientific publications. The objective of this study was to understand if the climate change in Arkhangelsk Oblast (AO) situated in the north of European subarctic zone of Russia has real impact on the northward expansion of Ixodid ticks and stipulates the increase in TBE incidence.<br><br>METHODS: This study analyzes: TBE incidence in AO and throughout Russia, the results of Ixodid ticks collecting in a number of sites in AO, and TBE virus prevalence in those ticks, the data on tick bite incidence in AO, and meteorological data on AO mean annual air temperatures and precipitations.<br><br>RESULTS: It is established that in recent years TBE incidence in AO tended to increase contrary to its apparent decrease nationwide. In last 10 years, there was nearly 50-fold rise in TBE incidence in AO when compared with 1980-1989. Probably, the increase both in mean annual air temperatures and temperatures during tick active season resulted in the northward expansion of Ixodes Persulcatus, main TBE virus vector. The Ixodid ticks expansion is confirmed both by the results of ticks flagging from the surface vegetation and by the tick bite incidence in the population of AO locations earlier free from ticks. Our mathematical (correlation and regression) analysis of available data revealed a distinct correlation between TBE incidence and the growth of mean annual air temperatures in AO in 1990-2009.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Not ruling out other factors, we conclude that climate change contributed much to the TBE incidence increase in AO.}, }
@article {pmid22023595, year = {2011}, author = {Olsson, M and Schwartz, T and Wapstra, E and Uller, T and Ujvari, B and Madsen, T and Shine, R}, title = {Climate change, multiple paternity and offspring survival in lizards.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {65}, number = {11}, pages = {3323-3326}, doi = {10.1111/j.1558-5646.2011.01387.x}, pmid = {22023595}, issn = {1558-5646}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Genotype ; Lizards/*physiology ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Sexual Behavior, Animal/*physiology ; Survival Analysis ; Sweden ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid22022304, year = {2011}, author = {Brubaker, M and Berner, J and Chavan, R and Warren, J}, title = {Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {22022304}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Alaska ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Floods ; *Food Supply ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Inuit ; Mental Disorders/epidemiology ; Mental Health ; Public Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities.<br><br>BACKGROUND: In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects. IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS: The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska.<br><br>FINDINGS: Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid22021286, year = {2011}, author = {Walls, HL and Walls, KL and Benke, G}, title = {Eye disease resulting from increased use of fluorescent lighting as a climate change mitigation strategy.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {101}, number = {12}, pages = {2222-2225}, pmid = {22021286}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {Australia ; Cataract/etiology ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Eye/*radiation effects ; Eye Diseases/*etiology ; Humans ; Lighting/*adverse effects ; Pterygium/etiology ; Ultraviolet Rays/*adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Increased use of fluorescent lighting as a climate change mitigation strategy may increase eye disease. The safe range of light to avoid exposing the eye to potentially damaging ultraviolet (UV) radiation is 2000 to 3500K and greater than 500 nanometers. Some fluorescent lights fall outside this safe range. Fluorescent lighting may increase UV-related eye diseases by up to 12% and, according to our calculations, may cause an additional 3000 cases of cataracts and 7500 cases of pterygia annually in Australia. Greater control of UV exposure from fluorescent lights is required. This may be of particular concern for aging populations in developed countries and countries in northern latitudes where there is a greater dependence on artificial lighting.}, }
@article {pmid22015426, year = {2012}, author = {Githeko, AK and Ototo, EN and Guiyun, Y}, title = {Progress towards understanding the ecology and epidemiology of malaria in the western Kenya highlands: opportunities and challenges for control under climate change risk.}, journal = {Acta tropica}, volume = {121}, number = {1}, pages = {19-25}, pmid = {22015426}, issn = {1873-6254}, support = {D43 TW001505/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI050243/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI050243-11/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI-50243/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Kenya/epidemiology ; Malaria/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/*transmission ; Mosquito Control/economics/methods ; }, abstract = {Following severe malaria epidemics in the western Kenya highlands after the late 1980s it became imperative to undertake eco-epidemiological assessments of the disease and determine its drivers, spatial-temporal distribution and control strategies. Extensive research has indicated that the major biophysical drivers of the disease are climate change and variability, terrain, topography, hydrology and immunity. Vector distribution is focalized at valley bottoms and abundance is closely related with drainage efficiency, habitat availability, stability and productivity of the ecosystems. Early epidemic prediction models have been developed and they can be used to assess climate risks that warrant extra interventions with a lead time of 2-4 months. Targeted integrated vector management strategies can significantly reduce the cost on the indoor residual spraying by targeting the foci of transmission in transmission hotspots. Malaria control in the highlands has reduced vector population by 90%, infections by 50-90% in humans and in some cases transmission has been interrupted. Insecticide resistance is increasing and as transmission decreases so will immunity. Active surveillance will be required to monitor and contain emerging threats. More studies on eco-stratification of the disease, based on its major drivers, are required so that interventions are tailored for specific ecosystems. New and innovative control interventions such as house modification with a one-application strategy may reduce the threat from insecticide resistance and low compliance associated with the use of ITNs.}, }
@article {pmid22012646, year = {2011}, author = {Charlesworth, A and Gray, A and Pencheon, D and Stern, N}, title = {Assessing the health benefits of tackling climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {343}, number = {}, pages = {d6520}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.d6520}, pmid = {22012646}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Global Health ; Health Priorities ; Humans ; Social Welfare ; }, }
@article {pmid22012304, year = {2011}, author = {Black, R and Bennett, SR and Thomas, SM and Beddington, JR}, title = {Climate change: Migration as adaptation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {478}, number = {7370}, pages = {447-449}, pmid = {22012304}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Disasters ; Emigration and Immigration/*statistics &amp; numerical data/*trends ; *Environment ; Floods ; Humans ; Policy Making ; Politics ; Poverty ; Risk ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Urban Population ; }, }
@article {pmid22008811, year = {2011}, author = {}, title = {Call for urgent action on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {343}, number = {}, pages = {d6760}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.d6760}, pmid = {22008811}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; *Global Health ; Government Agencies ; Greenhouse Effect ; Health Priorities ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid22008216, year = {2012}, author = {Ni, WL and Li, ZH and Chen, HJ and Wan, FH and Qu, WW and Zhang, Z and Kriticos, DJ}, title = {Including climate change in pest risk assessment: the peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Diptera: Tephritidae).}, journal = {Bulletin of entomological research}, volume = {102}, number = {2}, pages = {173-183}, doi = {10.1017/S0007485311000538}, pmid = {22008216}, issn = {1475-2670}, mesh = {Animals ; Area Under Curve ; *Climate Change ; Geographic Information Systems ; *Insect Control ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; ROC Curve ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; Tephritidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) is one of the most harmful species of Tephritidae. It causes extensive damage in Asia and threatens many countries located along or near the Mediterranean Sea. The climate mapping program, CLIMEX 3.0, and the GIS software, ArcGIS 9.3, were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of B. zonata. The model predicts that, under current climatic conditions, B. zonata will be able to establish itself throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including some parts of the USA, southern China, southeastern Australia and northern New Zealand. Climate change scenarios for the 2070s indicate that the potential distribution of B. zonata will expand poleward into areas which are currently too cold. The main factors limiting the pest's range expansion are cold, hot and dry stress. The model's predictions of the numbers of generations produced annually by B. zonata were consistent with values previously recorded for the pest's occurrence in Egypt. The ROC curve and the AUC (an AUC of 0.912) were obtained to evaluate the performance of the CLIMEX model in this study. The analysis of this information indicated a high degree of accuracy for the CLIMEX model. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. zonata projected under the climate change scenarios considered in this study suggest that biosecurity authorities should consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. To prevent the introduction and spread of B. zonata, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid22007460, year = {2011}, author = {Xu, HJ and Yang, XG and Wang, WF and Xu, C}, title = {[Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. VII. Change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in arid and semi-arid region of Tibet Plateau].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {1817-1824}, pmid = {22007460}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; *Droughts ; Geographic Information Systems ; Plant Transpiration ; Rain ; Tibet ; Water/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1961-2007 ground observation data from 55 meteorological stations in arid and semi-arid region of Tibetan Plateau, and by using 5-day moving average method and ArcGIS-IDW module, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics and climatic trend rates of agricultural climate resources in the region in 1961-1980 (period I) and 1981-2007 (period II). In 1961-2007, the sunshine duration during the growth season of chimonophilous crops in the study region changed less, while that during the growth season of thermophilic crops increased but with little spatial change. Comparing with those in period I, the average value of accumulated temperature in period II showed an increasing trend, and the area with > or = 1500 degrees C x d during the growth season of thermophilic crops increased by 33.9%. The precipitation decreased gradually from southeast to northwest. During the growth season of chimonophilous crops, the precipitation in the southeast in the two periods reached 800 mm, but the climatic trend in other areas was positive or negative, and the change rate was small. The area with precipitation > or = 400 mm during the growth season of thermophilic crops in period II expanded by 40%, as compared in period I. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) generally increased slightly, and shared the similar spatial distribution pattern with sunshine duration and accumulated temperature. During the growth season of thermophilic crops, the area with ET0 > or = 400 mm in period II expanded by 35.7%, compared with that in period I. In the study period, the heat and precipitation resources during crop growth seasons in Tibet Plateau increased in a certain degree, which was very beneficial to the agriculture-stock production. However, the increase of reference crop evapotranspitation indicated the increase of potential evaporation. Thereby, the researches about the possible effects of climate change on agriculture-stock production should be further strengthened.}, }
@article {pmid22000917, year = {2011}, author = {González-García, S and Gasol, CM and Lozano, RG and Moreira, MT and Gabarrell, X and Rieradevall i Pons, J and Feijoo, G}, title = {Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {410-411}, number = {}, pages = {16-25}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.09.059}, pmid = {22000917}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Environment ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Interior Design and Furnishings ; Renewable Energy ; Spain ; *Wood ; }, abstract = {The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO(2)) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. "Indoor products" included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the "Outdoor products" analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO(2) emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments.}, }
@article {pmid22000493, year = {2012}, author = {Hasnain, SE and Friedrich, B and Mettenleiter, T and Dobrindt, U and Hacker, J}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases--impact of global warming and climate change on infectious diseases: myth or reality?.}, journal = {International journal of medical microbiology : IJMM}, volume = {302}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijmm.2011.09.011}, pmid = {22000493}, issn = {1618-0607}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases ; Global Warming ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid21998716, year = {2011}, author = {Dalsgaard, B and Magård, E and Fjeldså, J and Martín González, AM and Rahbek, C and Olesen, JM and Ollerton, J and Alarcón, R and Cardoso Araujo, A and Cotton, PA and Lara, C and Machado, CG and Sazima, I and Sazima, M and Timmermann, A and Watts, S and Sandel, B and Sutherland, WJ and Svenning, JC}, title = {Specialization in plant-hummingbird networks is associated with species richness, contemporary precipitation and quaternary climate-change velocity.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {10}, pages = {e25891}, pmid = {21998716}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Geography ; *Plants ; *Rain ; }, abstract = {Large-scale geographical patterns of biotic specialization and the underlying drivers are poorly understood, but it is widely believed that climate plays an important role in determining specialization. As climate-driven range dynamics should diminish local adaptations and favor generalization, one hypothesis is that contemporary biotic specialization is determined by the degree of past climatic instability, primarily Quaternary climate-change velocity. Other prominent hypotheses predict that either contemporary climate or species richness affect biotic specialization. To gain insight into geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization and its drivers, we use network analysis to determine the degree of specialization in plant-hummingbird mutualistic networks sampled at 31 localities, spanning a wide range of climate regimes across the Americas. We found greater biotic specialization at lower latitudes, with latitude explaining 20-22% of the spatial variation in plant-hummingbird specialization. Potential drivers of specialization--contemporary climate, Quaternary climate-change velocity, and species richness--had superior explanatory power, together explaining 53-64% of the variation in specialization. Notably, our data provides empirical evidence for the hypothesized roles of species richness, contemporary precipitation and Quaternary climate-change velocity as key predictors of biotic specialization, whereas contemporary temperature and seasonality seem unimportant in determining specialization. These results suggest that both ecological and evolutionary processes at Quaternary time scales can be important in driving large-scale geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization, at least for co-evolved systems such as plant-hummingbird networks.}, }
@article {pmid21998365, year = {2011}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Predicting climate change. Vital details of global warming are eluding forecasters.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {334}, number = {6053}, pages = {173-174}, doi = {10.1126/science.334.6053.173}, pmid = {21998365}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid21997387, year = {2012}, author = {Hess, JJ and McDowell, JZ and Luber, G}, title = {Integrating climate change adaptation into public health practice: using adaptive management to increase adaptive capacity and build resilience.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {2}, pages = {171-179}, pmid = {21997387}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Decision Making ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Public Health Practice ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to have a range of health impacts, some of which are already apparent. Public health adaptation is imperative, but there has been little discussion of how to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in public health systems.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We explored possible explanations for the lack of work on adaptive capacity, outline climate-health challenges that may lie outside public health's coping range, and consider changes in practice that could increase public health's adaptive capacity.<br><br>METHODS: We conducted a substantive, interdisciplinary literature review focused on climate change adaptation in public health, social learning, and management of socioeconomic systems exhibiting dynamic complexity.<br><br>DISCUSSION: There are two competing views of how public health should engage climate change adaptation. Perspectives differ on whether climate change will primarily amplify existing hazards, requiring enhancement of existing public health functions, or present categorically distinct threats requiring innovative management strategies. In some contexts, distinctly climate-sensitive health threats may overwhelm public health's adaptive capacity. Addressing these threats will require increased emphasis on institutional learning, innovative management strategies, and new and improved tools. Adaptive management, an iterative framework that embraces uncertainty, uses modeling, and integrates learning, may be a useful approach. We illustrate its application to extreme heat in an urban setting.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Increasing public health capacity will be necessary for certain climate-health threats. Focusing efforts to increase adaptive capacity in specific areas, promoting institutional learning, embracing adaptive management, and developing tools to facilitate these processes are important priorities and can improve the resilience of local public health systems to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21992607, year = {2012}, author = {Spence, A and Poortinga, W and Pidgeon, N}, title = {The psychological distance of climate change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {32}, number = {6}, pages = {957-972}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01695.x}, pmid = {21992607}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Behavior ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Female ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Perception ; *Public Opinion ; Risk ; Time Factors ; United Kingdom ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Avoiding dangerous climate change is one of the most urgent social risk issues we face today and understanding related public perceptions is critical to engaging the public with the major societal transformations required to combat climate change. Analyses of public perceptions have indicated that climate change is perceived as distant on a number of different dimensions. However, to date there has been no in-depth exploration of the psychological distance of climate change. This study uses a nationally representative British sample in order to systematically explore and characterize each of the four theorized dimensions of psychological distance--temporal, social, and geographical distance, and uncertainty--in relation to climate change. We examine how each of these different aspects of psychological distance relate to each other as well as to concerns about climate change and sustainable behavior intentions. Results indicate that climate change is both psychologically distant and proximal in relation to different dimensions. Lower psychological distance was generally associated with higher levels of concern, although perceived impacts on developing countries, as an indicator of social distance, was also significantly related to preparedness to act on climate change. Our findings clearly point to the utility of risk communication techniques designed to reduce psychological distance. However, highlighting the potentially very serious distant impacts of climate change may also be useful in promoting sustainable behavior, even among those already concerned.}, }
@article {pmid21991595, year = {2011}, author = {Balbus, J}, title = {What does climate change have to do with human health? with John Balbus.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {9}, pages = {1 preceding a382}, pmid = {21991595}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Environmental Policy ; Humans ; Public Health ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid21991339, year = {2011}, author = {Nori, J and Urbina-Cardona, JN and Loyola, RD and Lescano, JN and Leynaud, GC}, title = {Climate change and American Bullfrog invasion: what could we expect in South America?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {10}, pages = {e25718}, pmid = {21991339}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Geography ; *Introduced Species ; Rana catesbeiana/*physiology ; South America ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Biological invasion and climate change pose challenges to biodiversity conservation in the 21(st) century. Invasive species modify ecosystem structure and functioning and climatic changes are likely to produce invasive species' range shifts pushing some populations into protected areas. The American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) is one of the hundred worst invasive species in the world. Native from the southeast of USA, it has colonized more than 75% of South America where it has been reported as a highly effective predator, competitor and vector of amphibian diseases.<br><br>We modeled the potential distribution of the bullfrog in its native range based on different climate models and green-house gases emission scenarios, and projected the results onto South America for the years of 2050 and 2080. We also overlaid projected models onto the South American network of protected areas. Our results indicate a slight decrease in potential suitable area for bullfrog invasion, although protected areas will become more climatically suitable. Therefore, invasion of these sites is forecasted.<br><br>CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: We provide new evidence supporting the vulnerability of the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot to bullfrog invasion and call attention to optimal future climatic conditions of the Andean-Patagonian forest, eastern Paraguay, and northwestern Bolivia, where invasive populations have not been found yet. We recommend several management and policy strategies to control bullfrog invasion and argue that these would be possible if based on appropriate articulation among government agencies, NGOs, research institutions and civil society.}, }
@article {pmid21988516, year = {2012}, author = {Jeffers, ES and Bonsall, MB and Watson, JE and Willis, KJ}, title = {Climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning: evidence from an Empetrum heathland.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {193}, number = {1}, pages = {150-164}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03907.x}, pmid = {21988516}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Ericaceae/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; Pollen/physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {• The extent to which plants exert an influence over ecosystem processes, such as nitrogen cycling and fire regimes, is still largely unknown. It is also unclear how such processes may be dependent on the prevailing environmental conditions. • Here, we applied mechanistic models of plant-environment interactions to palaeoecological time series data to determine the most likely functional relationships of Empetrum (crowberry) and Betula (birch) with millennial-scale changes in climate, fire activity, nitrogen cycling and herbivore density in an Irish heathland. • Herbivory and fire activity preferentially removed Betula from the landscape. Empetrum had a positive feedback on fire activity, but the effect of Betula was slightly negative. Nitrogen cycling was not strongly controlled by plant population dynamics. Betula had a greater temperature-dependent population growth rate than Empetrum; thus climate warming promoted Betula expansion into the heathland and this led to reduced fire activity and greater herbivory, which further reinforced Betula dominance. • Differences in population growth response to warming were responsible for an observed shift to an alternative community state with contrasting forms of ecosystem functioning. Self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms--which often protect plant communities from invasion--may therefore be sensitive to climate warming, particularly in arctic regions that are dominated by cold-adapted plant populations.}, }
@article {pmid21980551, year = {2011}, author = {Engel, K and Tollrian, R and Jeschke, JM}, title = {Integrating biological invasions, climate change and phenotypic plasticity.}, journal = {Communicative &amp; integrative biology}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {247-250}, pmid = {21980551}, issn = {1942-0889}, abstract = {Invasive species frequently change the ecosystems where they are introduced, e.g., by affecting species interactions and population densities of native species. We outline the connectedness of biological invasions, climate change and the phenomenon of phenotypic plasticity. Integrating these hot topics is important for understanding the biology of many species, their information transfer and general interactions with other organisms. One example where this is particularly true is the zooplankton species Daphnia lumholtzi, which has successfully invaded North America. The combination of a high thermal tolerance and a phenotypically plastic defense in D. lumholtzi might be responsible for its invasion success. Its morphological defense consists of rigid spines and is formed after sensory detecting the presence of native fish predators. The integration of biological invasions, climate change and phenotypic plasticity is an important goal for integrative biology.}, }
@article {pmid21979937, year = {2011}, author = {Sandel, B and Arge, L and Dalsgaard, B and Davies, RG and Gaston, KJ and Sutherland, WJ and Svenning, JC}, title = {The influence of Late Quaternary climate-change velocity on species endemism.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {334}, number = {6056}, pages = {660-664}, doi = {10.1126/science.1210173}, pmid = {21979937}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Amphibians ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Mammals ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The effects of climate change on biodiversity should depend in part on climate displacement rate (climate-change velocity) and its interaction with species' capacity to migrate. We estimated Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate-change velocity by integrating macroclimatic shifts since the Last Glacial Maximum with topoclimatic gradients. Globally, areas with high velocities were associated with marked absences of small-ranged amphibians, mammals, and birds. The association between endemism and velocity was weakest in the highly vagile birds and strongest in the weakly dispersing amphibians, linking dispersal ability to extinction risk due to climate change. High velocity was also associated with low endemism at regional scales, especially in wet and aseasonal regions. Overall, we show that low-velocity areas are essential refuges for Earth's many small-ranged species.}, }
@article {pmid21978234, year = {2011}, author = {Sheldon, KS and Yang, S and Tewksbury, JJ}, title = {Climate change and community disassembly: impacts of warming on tropical and temperate montane community structure.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {1191-1200}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01689.x}, pmid = {21978234}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Tropical Climate ; *Vertebrates ; }, abstract = {Both tropical and temperate species are responding to global warming through range shifts, but our understanding of the consequences of these shifts for whole communities is limited. Here, we use current elevational range data for six taxonomic groups spanning 90° in latitude to examine the potential impacts of climate-driven range shifts on community change, or 'disassembly', across latitude. Elevational ranges are smaller at low latitudes for most groups and, as a consequence, tropical communities appear to be more sensitive to temperature increases compared with temperate communities. Under site-specific temperature projections, we generally found greater community disassembly in tropical compared with temperate communities, although this varied by dispersal assumptions. Mountain height can impact the amount of community disassembly, with greater change occurring on smaller mountains. Finally, projected community disassembly was higher for ectotherms than endotherms, although the variation among ectotherms was greater than the variation separating endotherms and ectotherms.}, }
@article {pmid21976686, year = {2012}, author = {Brodie, J and Post, E and Watson, F and Berger, J}, title = {Climate change intensification of herbivore impacts on tree recruitment.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {279}, number = {1732}, pages = {1366-1370}, pmid = {21976686}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Deer ; Ecosystem ; *Herbivory ; Montana ; Populus ; Snow ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Altered species interactions are difficult to predict and yet may drive the response of ecological communities to climate change. We show that declining snowpack strengthens the impacts of a generalist herbivore, elk (Cervus elaphus), on a common tree species. Thick snowpack substantially reduces elk visitation to sites; aspen (Populus tremuloides) shoots in these areas experience lower browsing rates, higher survival and enhanced recruitment. Aspen inside herbivore exclosures have greatly increased recruitment, particularly at sites with thick snowpack. We suggest that long-term decreases in snowpack could help explain a widespread decline of aspen through previously unconsidered relationships. More generally, reduced snowpack across the Rocky Mountains, combined with rising elk populations, may remove the conditions needed for recruitment of this ecologically important tree species. These results highlight that herbivore behavioural responses to altered abiotic conditions are critical determinants of plant persistence. Predictions of climate change impacts must not overlook the crucial importance of species interactions.}, }
@article {pmid21975172, year = {2012}, author = {Brodie, J and Post, E and Laurance, WF}, title = {Climate change and tropical biodiversity: a new focus.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {145-150}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2011.09.008}, pmid = {21975172}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fires ; *Global Warming ; Human Activities ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Considerable efforts are focused on the consequences of climate change for tropical rainforests. However, potentially the greatest threats to tropical biodiversity (synergistic interactions between climatic changes and human land use) remain understudied. Key concerns are that aridification could increase the accessibility of previously non-arable or remote lands, elevate fire impacts and exacerbate ecological effects of habitat disturbance. The growing climatic change literature often fails to appreciate that, in coming decades, climate-land use interactions might be at least as important as abiotic changes per se for the fate of tropical biodiversity. In this review, we argue that protected area expansion along key ecological gradients, regulation of human-lit fires, strategic forest-carbon financing and re-evaluations of agricultural and biofuel subsidies could ameliorate some of these synergistic threats.}, }
@article {pmid21969578, year = {2011}, author = {Zhang, DD and Lee, HF and Wang, C and Li, B and Pei, Q and Zhang, J and An, Y}, title = {The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {42}, pages = {17296-17301}, pmid = {21969578}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics/history ; Causality ; Climate Change/economics/*history/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecosystem ; Edible Grain/economics/history ; Emigration and Immigration/history ; Epidemics/history ; Europe ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; Humans ; Regression Analysis ; Social Conditions/history ; Starvation/history ; Warfare ; }, abstract = {Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined "golden" and "dark" ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.}, }
@article {pmid21966228, year = {2011}, author = {Gosselin, P and Bélanger, D and Lapaige, V and Labbé, Y}, title = {The burgeoning field of transdisciplinary adaptation research in Quebec (1998-): a climate change-related public health narrative.}, journal = {Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {337-348}, pmid = {21966228}, issn = {1178-2390}, abstract = {This paper presents a public health narrative on Quebec's new climatic conditions and human health, and describes the transdisciplinary nature of the climate change adaptation research currently being adopted in Quebec, characterized by the three phases of problem identification, problem investigation, and problem transformation. A transdisciplinary approach is essential for dealing with complex ill-defined problems concerning human-environment interactions (for example, climate change), for allowing joint research, collective leadership, complex collaborations, and significant exchanges among scientists, decision makers, and knowledge users. Such an approach is widely supported in theory but has proved to be extremely difficult to implement in practice, and those who attempt it have met with heavy resistance, succeeding when they find the occasional opportunity within institutional or social contexts. In this paper we narrate the ongoing struggle involved in tackling the negative effects of climate change in multi-actor contexts at local and regional levels, a struggle that began in a quiet way in 1998. The paper will describe how public health adaptation research is supporting transdisciplinary action and implementation while also preparing for the future, and how this interaction to tackle a life-world problem (adaptation of the Quebec public health sector to climate change) in multi-actors contexts has progressively been established during the last 13 years. The first of the two sections introduces the social context of a Quebec undergoing climate changes. Current climatic conditions and expected changes will be described, and attendant health risks for the Quebec population. The second section addresses the scientific, institutional and normative dimensions of the problem. It corresponds to a "public health narrative" presented in three phases: (1) problem identification (1998-2002) beginning in northern Quebec; (2) problem investigation (2002-2006) in which the issues are successively explored, understood, and conceptualized for all of Quebec, and (3) problem transformation (2006-2009), which discusses major interactions among the stakeholders and the presentation of an Action Plan by a central actor, the Quebec government, in alliance with other stakeholders. In conclusion, we underline the importance, in the current context, of providing for a sustained transdisciplinary adaptation to climatic change. This paper should be helpful for (1) public health professionals confronted with establishing a transdisciplinary approach to a real-world problem other than climate change, (2) professionals in other sectors (such as public safety, built environment) confronted with climate change, who wish to implement transdisciplinary adaptive interventions and/or research, and (3) knowledge users (public and private actors; nongovernment organizations; citizens) from elsewhere in multi-contexts/environments/sectors who wish to promote complex collaborations (with us or not), collective leadership, and "transfrontier knowledge-to-action" for implementing climate change-related adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid21962751, year = {2011}, author = {Monaco, CJ and Helmuth, B}, title = {Tipping points, thresholds and the keystone role of physiology in marine climate change research.}, journal = {Advances in marine biology}, volume = {60}, number = {}, pages = {123-160}, doi = {10.1016/B978-0-12-385529-9.00003-2}, pmid = {21962751}, issn = {0065-2881}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The ongoing and future effects of global climate change on natural and human-managed ecosystems have led to a renewed interest in the concept of ecological thresholds or tipping points. While generalizations such as poleward range shifts serve as a useful heuristic framework to understand the overall ecological impacts of climate change, sophisticated approaches to management require spatially and temporally explicit predictions that move beyond these oversimplified models. Most approaches to studying ecological thresholds in marine ecosystems tend to focus on populations, or on non-linearities in physical drivers. Here we argue that many of the observed thresholds observed at community and ecosystem levels can potentially be explained as the product of non-linearities that occur at three scales: (a) the mechanisms by which individual organisms interact with their ambient habitat, (b) the non-linear relationship between organismal physiological performance and variables such as body temperature and (c) the indirect effects of physiological stress on species interactions such as competition and predation. We explore examples at each of these scales in detail and explain why a failure to consider these non-linearities - many of which can be counterintuitive - can lead to Type II errors (a failure to predict significant ecological responses to climate change). Specifically, we examine why ecological thresholds can occur well before concomitant thresholds in physical drivers are observed, i.e. how even small linear changes in the physical environment can lead to ecological tipping points. We advocate for an integrated framework that combines biophysical, ecological and physiological methods to generate hypotheses that can be tested using experimental manipulation as well as hindcasting and nowcasting of observed change, on a spatially and temporally explicit basis.}, }
@article {pmid21962562, year = {2012}, author = {Moss, B}, title = {Cogs in the endless machine: lakes, climate change and nutrient cycles: a review.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {434}, number = {}, pages = {130-142}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.07.069}, pmid = {21962562}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {Lakes have, rather grandly, been described as sentinels, integrators and regulators of climate change (Williamson et al., Limnol. Oceanogr. 2009; 54: 2273-82). Lakes are also part of the continuum of the water cycle, cogs in a machine that processes water and elements dissolved and suspended in myriad forms. Assessing the changes in the functioning of the cogs and the machine with respect to these substances as climate changes is clearly important, but difficult. Many other human-induced influences, not least eutrophication, that impact on catchment areas and consequently on lakes, have generally complicated the recording of recent change in sediment records and modern sets of data. The least confounded evidence comes from remote lakes in mountain and polar regions and suggests effects of warming that include mobilisation of ions and increased amounts of phosphorus. A cottage industry has arisen in deduction and prediction of the future effects of climate change on lakes, but the results are very general and precision is marred not only by confounding influences but by the complexity of the lake system and the infinite variety of possible future scenarios. A common conclusion, however, is that warming will increase the intensity of symptoms of eutrophication. Direct experimentation, though expensive and still unusual and confined to shallow lake and wetland systems is perhaps the most reliable approach. Results suggest increased symptoms of eutrophication, and changes in ecosystem structure, but in some respects are different from those deduced from comparisons along latitudinal gradients or by inference from knowledge of lake behaviour. Experiments have shown marked increases in community respiration compared with gross photosynthesis in mesocosm systems and it may be that the most significant churnings of these cogs in the earth-air-water machine will be in their influence on the carbon cycle, with possibly large positive feedback effects on warming.}, }
@article {pmid21960612, year = {2011}, author = {Punyasena, SW and Dalling, JW and Jaramillo, C and Turner, BL}, title = {Comment on "The response of vegetation on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to Pleistocene climate change".}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {333}, number = {6051}, pages = {1825; author reply 1825}, doi = {10.1126/science.1207888}, pmid = {21960612}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Altitude ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Fossils ; *Plants ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Cárdenas et al. (Reports, 25 February 2011, p. 1055) used the presence of Podocarpus pollen and wood to infer ≥5°C cooling of Andean forests during Quaternary glacial periods. We show that (i) Podocarpus has a wide elevation range in the Neotropics, and (ii) edaphic factors cannot be discounted as a factor governing its distribution. Paleoecologists should therefore reevaluate Podocarpus as a cool-temperature proxy.}, }
@article {pmid21957451, year = {2011}, author = {Cloern, JE and Knowles, N and Brown, LR and Cayan, D and Dettinger, MD and Morgan, TL and Schoellhamer, DH and Stacey, MT and van der Wegen, M and Wagner, RW and Jassby, AD}, title = {Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {e24465}, pmid = {21957451}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bays ; *Biological Evolution ; Biota ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources/trends ; Floods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Risk ; *Rivers ; San Francisco ; Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species.<br><br>We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21(st) century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.}, }
@article {pmid21956342, year = {2012}, author = {Zganec, K}, title = {The effects of water diversion and climate change on hydrological alteration and temperature regime of karst rivers in central Croatia.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {184}, number = {9}, pages = {5705-5723}, pmid = {21956342}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Croatia ; Environmental Monitoring ; Power Plants ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Karst rivers in Croatia have been heavily dammed in the past. However, long-term impacts of dams, water diversion and climate change on karst rivers in Croatia have rarely been examined. This study analyzes long-term trends of hydrological and temperature conditions, prior to closure of new large dam, in five connected karst rivers of central Croatia: the sinking rivers Gornja Dobra and Zagorska Mrežnica that have underground connections with the Gojačka Dobra, Tounjčica and Mrežnica Rivers. It was established that hydrological conditions of these rivers have been greatly changed after the Gojak HPP, located at spring of Gojačka Dobra, became operational in 1959. Water diversion from the reservoirs on Zagorska Mrežnica and Gornja Dobra to the Gojak HPP has increased mean annual discharge (52-106%), causing great subdaily fluctuations and overall modification of natural flow regime along the whole course of Gojačka Dobra. By cutting the connection between Zagorska Mrežnica and Tounjčica, water diversion has caused a reduction of mean annual discharges of the Tounjčica (-60%) and Mrežnica (-29%) Rivers. Analyses of long-term trends in water temperature over the last 50 years have revealed significant positive trends in average annual temperature at three gauging stations on three rivers with increase of 0.17, 0.44 and 0.48°C per decade and climate change as the primary cause. The highest significant increasing trend was established at the lower course of Mrežnica where discharge was reduced by water diversion. Mitigation measures for the improvement of hydrological conditions of affected rivers and underground systems are proposed and discussed.}, }
@article {pmid21954726, year = {2011}, author = {Madsen, J and Jaspers, C and Tamstorf, M and Mortensen, CE and Rigét, F}, title = {Long-term effects of grazing and global warming on the composition and carrying capacity of graminoid marshes for moulting geese in east Greenland.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {40}, number = {6}, pages = {638-649}, pmid = {21954726}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Geese ; *Global Warming ; Greenland ; Plant Development ; Population Dynamics ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Greening of the Arctic due to climate warming may provide herbivores with richer food supplies, resulting in higher herbivore densities. In turn, this may cause changes in vegetation composition and ecosystem function. In 1982-1984, we studied the ecology of non-breeding moulting geese in Jameson Land, low Arctic East Greenland. By then, geese consumed most of the graminoid production in available moss fens, and it appeared that the geese had filled up the available habitat. In 2008, we revisited the area and found that the number of moulting geese and the temperature sum for June-July had tripled, while the above-ground biomass in a moss fen ungrazed by geese had more than doubled. In a goose-grazed fen, the overall plant composition was unchanged, but the frequency of graminoids had decreased and the area with dead vegetation and open spots had increased. We suggest that climate warming has lead to increased productivity, allowing for higher numbers of moulting geese. However, the reduction of vegetation cover by grazing may have longer term negative consequences for the number of geese the habitat can sustain.}, }
@article {pmid21950456, year = {2012}, author = {Thompson, PL and Shurin, JB}, title = {Regional zooplankton biodiversity provides limited buffering of pond ecosystems against climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {81}, number = {1}, pages = {251-259}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2011.01908.x}, pmid = {21950456}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Biomass ; British Columbia ; Climate Change ; Ponds ; Population Dynamics ; Salinity ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Zooplankton/*physiology ; }, abstract = {1. Climate change and other human-driven environmental perturbations are causing reductions in biodiversity and impacting the functioning of ecosystems on a global scale. Metacommunity theory suggests that ecosystem connectivity may reduce the magnitude of these impacts if the regional species pool contains functionally redundant species that differ in their environmental tolerances. Dispersal may increase the resistance of local ecosystems to environmental stress by providing regional species with traits adapted to novel conditions. 2. We tested this theory by subjecting freshwater zooplankton communities in mesocosms that were either connected to or isolated from the larger regional species pool to a factorial manipulation of experimental warming and increased salinity. 3. Compensation by regional taxa depended on the source of stress. Warming tolerant regional taxa partially compensated for reductions in heat sensitive local taxa but similar compensation did not occur under increased salinity. 4. Dispersal-mediated species invasions dampened the effects of warming on summer net ecosystem productivity. However, this buffering effect did not occur in the fall or for periphyton growth, the only other ecosystem function affected by the stress treatments. 5. The results indicate that regional biodiversity can provide insurance in a dynamic environment but that the buffering capacity is limited to some ecosystem processes and sources of stress. Maintaining regional biodiversity and habitat connectivity may therefore provide some limited insurance for local ecosystems in changing environments, but is unable to impart resistance against all sources of environmental stress.}, }
@article {pmid21949499, year = {2011}, author = {Natalia, K}, title = {Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {7913}, pmid = {21949499}, issn = {1654-9880}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Biomedical Research/*trends ; *Climate Change ; Cold Climate ; Female ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Male ; *Sex Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women's and men's well-being and health.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The main purpose of this article is not to give a full review but to draw attention to the gaps in knowledge and challenges in the Arctic research trends on climate change, human health and gender.<br><br>METHODS: A broad literature search was undertaken using a variety of sources from natural, medical, social science and humanities. The focus was on the keywords.<br><br>RESULTS: Despite the evidence provided by many researchers on differentiating effects of climate change on well-being and health of women and men, gender perspective remains of marginal interest in climate change, environmental and health studies. At the same time, social sciences and humanities, and gender studies in particular, show little interest towards climate change impacts on human health in the Arctic. As a result, we still observe the division of labour between disciplines, the disciplinary-bound pictures of human development in the Arctic and terminology confusion.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Efforts to bring in a gender perspective in the Arctic research will be successful only when different disciplines would work together. Multidisciplinary research is a way to challenge academic/disciplinary homogeneity and their boundaries, to take advantage of the diversity of approaches and methods in production of new integrated knowledge. Cooperation and dialogue across disciplines will help to develop adequate indicators for monitoring human health and elaborating efficient policies and strategies to the benefit of both women and men in the Arctic.}, }
@article {pmid21943724, year = {2011}, author = {Bastola, S and Murphy, C and Sweeney, J}, title = {The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk in Irish catchments to the range of IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {409}, number = {24}, pages = {5403-5415}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.08.042}, pmid = {21943724}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Floods ; Ireland ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Uncertainty ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {In the face of increased flood risk responsible authorities have set out safety margins to incorporate climate change impacts in building robust flood infrastructure. Using the case study of four catchments in Ireland, this study subjects such design allowances to a sensitivity analysis of the uncertainty inherent in estimates of future flood risk. Uncertainty in flood quantiles is quantified using regionalised climate scenarios derived from a large number of GCMs (17), forced with three SRES emissions scenarios. In terms of hydrological response uncertainty within and between hydrological models is assessed using the GLUE framework. Regionalisation is achieved using a change factor method to infer changes in the parameters of a weather generator using monthly output from the GCMs, while flood frequency analysis is conducted using the method of probability weighted moments to fit the Generalised Extreme Value distribution to ~20,000 annual maximia series. Sensitivity results show that for low frequency events, the risk of exceedence of design allowances is greater than for more frequent events, with considerable implications for critical infrastructure. Peak flows for the five return periods assessed were found to be less sensitive to temperature and subsequently to potential evaporation (PET) than to rainfall. The average width of the uncertainty range for changes in flood magnitude is greater for low frequency events than for high frequency events. In all catchments there is a progressive increase in the peak flows associated with the 5, 25, 50 and 100-year return periods when moving from the 2020s to the 2080s.}, }
@article {pmid21941753, year = {2011}, author = {Wang, J and Yang, XG and Li, Y and Liu, ZJ and Zhang, XY}, title = {[Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of global climate change. VI. Change characteristics of precipitation resource and its possible effect on maize production in Sanjiang Plain of Heilongjiang Province].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {1511-1522}, pmid = {21941753}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Rain ; Seasons ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1959-2007 daily precipitation data and 1983-2007 spring maize phenologyical data, the thresholds of extreme precipitation at different places in Sanjiang Plain of Heilongjiang Province were calculated by percentile method, and, in combining with the indices involving the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation, longest consecutive wet (dry) days, and contribution rate of extreme precipitation, the annual change characteristics of extreme precipitation, quantitative change of different grade precipitation, and distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation at each growth stage of spring maize were analyzed. In 1959-2007, the annual precipitation in Sanjiang Plain showed a slight decreasing trend, and the decreasing amplitude of precipitation days was much larger than that of precipitation. Accordingly, the annual distribution of precipitation tended to be more concentrated. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation declined, and the annual fluctuation of the frequency was bigger than that of the intensity. There was a slight decrease in the proportion of annual extreme precipitation to annual precipitation, but the decreasing tendency was not significant. The annual light rain days had a significant decreasing trend, but the annual moderate and heavy rain days didn't have. During spring maize growth season, the distribution ratio of extreme precipitation from high to low was reproductive growth stage, coexistence stage of vegetative growth and reproductive growth, vegetative growth stage, and premergence stage. There was a significant decrease in the proportion of the precipitation during spring maize growth season to annual precipitation, resulting in an increasing risk of precipitation scarcity during the growth season. The longest consecutive dry days during spring maize growth season showed a significant increasing trend, with the increment averaged 1.1 d x (10a)(-1), while the longest consecutive wet days showed a significant decreasing trend, with the decrement averaged 0.5 d x (10a)(-1). Under natural precipitation, the spring maize drought risk in the study region increased.}, }
@article {pmid21940039, year = {2011}, author = {Jun, KS and Chung, ES and Sung, JY and Lee, KS}, title = {Development of spatial water resources vulnerability index considering climate change impacts.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {409}, number = {24}, pages = {5228-5242}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.08.027}, pmid = {21940039}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Floods ; Models, Theoretical ; Republic of Korea ; Rivers ; Water Quality ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This study developed a new framework to quantify spatial vulnerability for sustainable water resources management. Four hydrologic vulnerability indices--potential flood damage (PFDC), potential drought damage (PDDC), potential water quality deterioration (PWQDC), and watershed evaluation index (WEIC)--were modified to quantify flood damage, drought damage, water quality deterioration, and overall watershed risk considering the impact of climate change, respectively. The concept of sustainability in the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was applied in selecting all appropriate indicators (criteria) of climate change impacts. In the examination of climate change, future meteorological data was obtained using CGCM3 (Canadian Global Coupled Model) and SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model), and future stream run-off and water quality were simulated using HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran). The four modified indices were then calculated using TOPSIS, a multi-attribute method of decision analysis. As a result, the ranking obtained can be changed in consideration of climate change impacts. This study represents a new attempt to quantify hydrologic vulnerability in a manner that takes into account both climate change impacts and the concept of sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid21939044, year = {2011}, author = {Kattwinkel, M and Kühne, JV and Foit, K and Liess, M}, title = {Climate change, agricultural insecticide exposure, and risk for freshwater communities.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {21}, number = {6}, pages = {2068-2081}, doi = {10.1890/10-1993.1}, pmid = {21939044}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Europe ; *Fresh Water ; Insecticides/*toxicity ; Models, Theoretical ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/chemistry/*toxicity ; }, abstract = {Climate change exerts direct effects on ecosystems but has additional indirect effects due to changes in agricultural practice. These include the increased use of pesticides, changes in the areas that are cultivated, and changes in the crops cultivated. It is well known that pesticides, and in particular insecticides, affect aquatic ecosystems adversely. To implement effective mitigation measures it is necessary to identify areas that are affected currently and those that will be affected in the future. As a consequence, we predicted potential exposure to insecticide (insecticide runoff potential, RP) under current conditions (1990) and under a model scenario of future climate and land use (2090) using a spatially explicit model on a continental scale, with a focus on Europe. Space-for-time substitution was used to predict future levels of insecticide application, intensity of agricultural land use, and cultivated crops. To assess the indirect effects of climate change, evaluation of the risk of insecticide exposure was based on a trait-based, climate-insensitive indicator system (SPEAR, SPEcies At Risk). To this end, RP and landscape characteristics that are relevant for the recovery of affected populations were combined to estimate the ecological risk (ER) of insecticides for freshwater communities. We predicted a strong increase in the application of, and aquatic exposure to, insecticides under the future scenario, especially in central and northern Europe. This, in turn, will result in a severe increase in ER in these regions. Hence, the proportion of stream sites adjacent to arable land that do not meet the requirements for good ecological status as defined by the EU Water Framework Directive will increase (from 33% to 39% for the EU-25 countries), in particular in the Scandinavian and Baltic countries (from 6% to 19%). Such spatially explicit mapping of risk enables the planning of adaptation and mitigation strategies including vegetated buffer strips and nonagricultural recolonization zones along streams.}, }
@article {pmid21939043, year = {2011}, author = {Ford, CR and Laseter, SH and Swank, WT and Vose, JM}, title = {Can forest management be used to sustain water-based ecosystem services in the face of climate change?.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {21}, number = {6}, pages = {2049-2067}, doi = {10.1890/10-2246.1}, pmid = {21939043}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Appalachian Region ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forestry/*methods ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; Trees/*physiology ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Forested watersheds, an important provider of ecosystems services related to water supply, can have their structure, function, and resulting streamflow substantially altered by land use and land cover. Using a retrospective analysis and synthesis of long-term climate and streamfiow data (75 years) from six watersheds differing in management histories we explored whether streamflow responded differently to variation in annual temperature and extreme precipitation than unmanaged watersheds. We show significant increases in temperature and the frequency of extreme wet and dry years since the 1980s. Response models explained almost all streamflow variability (adjusted R2 > 0.99). In all cases, changing land use altered streamflow. Observed watershed responses differed significantly in wet and dry extreme years in all but a stand managed as a coppice forest. Converting deciduous stands to pine altered the streamflow response to extreme annual precipitation the most; the apparent frequency of observed extreme wet years decreased on average by sevenfold. This increased soil water storage may reduce flood risk in wet years, but create conditions that could exacerbate drought. Forest management can potentially mitigate extreme annual precipitation associated with climate change; however, offsetting effects suggest the need for spatially explicit analyses of risk and vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid21937668, year = {2011}, author = {Sears, MW and Raskin, E and Angilletta, MJ}, title = {The world is not flat: defining relevant thermal landscapes in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {51}, number = {5}, pages = {666-675}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icr111}, pmid = {21937668}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Altitude ; Animals ; *Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Lizards/*physiology ; Microclimate ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Although climates are rapidly changing on a global scale, these changes cannot easily be extrapolated to the local scales experienced by organisms. In fact, such generalizations might be quite problematic. For instance, models used to predict shifts in the ranges of species during climate change rarely incorporate data resolved to <1 km(2), although most organisms integrate climatic drivers at much smaller scales. Empirical studies alone suggest that the operative temperatures of many organisms vary by as much as 10-20 °C on a local scale, depending on vegetation, geology, and topography. Furthermore, this variation in abiotic factors ignores thermoregulatory behaviors that many animals use to balance heat loads. Through a set of simulations, we demonstrate how variability in elevational topography can attenuate the effects of warming climates. These simulations suggest that changing climates do not always impact organisms negatively. Importantly, these simulations involve well-known relationships in biophysical ecology that show how no two organisms experience the same climate in the same way. We suggest that, when coupled with thermoregulatory behavior, variation in topographic features can mask the acute effect of climate change in many cases.}, }
@article {pmid21937085, year = {2012}, author = {Whitehead, PG and Crossman, J}, title = {Macronutrient cycles and climate change: key science areas and an international perspective.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {434}, number = {}, pages = {13-17}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.08.046}, pmid = {21937085}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Carbon/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/chemistry ; Phosphorus/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Human activities have doubled global cycles of Nitrogen (N) and Phosphorus (P) and elevated N and P have compromised ecosystem services through the degradation of natural resources of soils, freshwaters and marine waters with a subsequent loss of biodiversity. Elevated Carbon (C) levels in the atmosphere have been linked to global warming, with positive feedback mechanisms accelerating the warming process. In order to initiate nutrient control, both national and international mitigation measures have been implemented. However, many of these initiatives focus upon a single nutrient without considering cycle interactions. A sound understanding of processes and transformations involved in the interactions of macronutrient cycles is required to avoid inadvertently enhancing effects of one nutrient, during mitigation for impacts of another. Emerging research initiatives are addressing these research gaps, with programmes in the US (USGCRP) and the UK (Macronutrient Cycles) advocating integration between scientists and stakeholders, in order to deliver results directly to policy makers. Through these programmes the scales of nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes will be quantified, and a determination made of the nature of nutrient transformations in catchments under a changing climate and perturbed carbon cycle. The consideration of connectivity between multiple macronutrient cycles will help to minimise the threats to biodiversity, ecosystem dynamics, public water supplies and human health by improved management and better focused policy.}, }
@article {pmid21936535, year = {2011}, author = {Peters, GP and Aamaas, B and T Lund, M and Solli, C and Fuglestvedt, JS}, title = {Alternative "global warming" metrics in life cycle assessment: a case study with existing transportation data.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {45}, number = {20}, pages = {8633-8641}, doi = {10.1021/es200627s}, pmid = {21936535}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Vehicle Emissions/*analysis ; }, abstract = {The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) impact category "global warming" compares emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) using Global Warming Potential (GWP) with a 100-year time-horizon as specified in the Kyoto Protocol. Two weaknesses of this approach are (1) the exclusion of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and biophysical factors despite their established importance, and (2) the use of a particular emission metric (GWP) with a choice of specific time-horizons (20, 100, and 500 years). The GWP and the three time-horizons were based on an illustrative example with value judgments and vague interpretations. Here we illustrate, using LCA data of the transportation sector, the importance of SLCFs relative to LLGHGs, different emission metrics, and different treatments of time. We find that both the inclusion of SLCFs and the choice of emission metric can alter results and thereby change mitigation priorities. The explicit inclusion of time, both for emissions and impacts, can remove value-laden assumptions and provide additional information for impact assessments. We believe that our results show that a debate is needed in the LCA community on the impact category "global warming" covering which emissions to include, the emission metric(s) to use, and the treatment of time.}, }
@article {pmid21936267, year = {2011}, author = {Takahashi, B}, title = {Framing and sources: a study of mass media coverage of climate change in Peru during the V ALCUE.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {543-557}, doi = {10.1177/0963662509356502}, pmid = {21936267}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Humans ; *Mass Media ; Peru ; *Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {Studies about mass media framing have found divergent levels of influence on public opinion; moreover, the evidence suggests that issue attributes can contribute to this difference. In the case of climate change, studies have focused exclusively on developed countries, suggesting that media influence perceptions about the issue. This study presents one of the first studies of media coverage in a developing country. It examines newspapers' reporting in Peru during the Fifth Latin America, Caribbean and European Union Summit in May 2008. The study focuses on the frames and the sources to provide an initial exploratory assessment of the coverage. The results show that the media relied mostly on government sources, giving limited access to dissenting voices such as environmentalists. Additionally, a prominence of "solutions" and "effects" frames was found, while "policy" and "science" frames were limited. The results could serve as a reference point for more comprehensive studies.}, }
@article {pmid21936195, year = {2011}, author = {Randalls, S}, title = {Optimal climate change: economics and climate science policy histories (from heuristic to normative).}, journal = {Osiris}, volume = {26}, number = {}, pages = {224-242}, doi = {10.1086/661273}, pmid = {21936195}, issn = {0369-7827}, mesh = {Climate Change/economics/*history ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Historiography ; History, 20th Century ; Policy Making ; Public Policy/economics/*history ; }, abstract = {Historical accounts of climate change science and policy have reflected rather infrequently upon the debates, discussions, and policy advice proffered by economists in the 1980s. While there are many forms of economic analysis, this article focuses upon cost-benefit analysis, especially as adopted in the work of William Nordhaus. The article addresses the way in which climate change economics subtly altered debates about climate policy from the late 1970s through the 1990s. These debates are often technical and complex, but the argument in this article is that the development of a philosophy of climate change as an issue for cost-benefit analysis has had consequences for how climate policy is made today.}, }
@article {pmid21936194, year = {2011}, author = {Dörries, M}, title = {The politics of atmospheric sciences: "nuclear winter" and global climate change.}, journal = {Osiris}, volume = {26}, number = {}, pages = {198-223}, doi = {10.1086/661272}, pmid = {21936194}, issn = {0369-7827}, mesh = {Climate Change/*history ; History, 20th Century ; Meteorology/*history ; *Nuclear Warfare ; *Politics ; Research/history ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {This article, by exploring the individual and collective trajectories that led to the "nuclear winter" debate, examines what originally drew scientists on both sides of the controversy to this research. Stepping back from the day-to-day action and looking at the larger cultural and political context of nuclear winter reveals sometimes surprising commonalities among actors who found themselves on opposing sides, as well as differences within the apparently coherent TTAPS group (the theory's originators: Richard P. Turco, Owen Brian Toon, Thomas P. Ackerman, James B. Pollack, and Carl Sagan). This story foreshadows that of recent research on anthropogenic climate change, which was substantially shaped during this--apparently tangential--cold war debate of the 1980s about research on the global effects of nuclear weapons.}, }
@article {pmid21936193, year = {2011}, author = {Howkins, A}, title = {Melting empires? Climate change and politics in Antarctica since the International Geophysical Year.}, journal = {Osiris}, volume = {26}, number = {}, pages = {180-197}, doi = {10.1086/661271}, pmid = {21936193}, issn = {0369-7827}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; History, 20th Century ; International Cooperation ; Meteorology/*history ; *Politics ; Research/history ; }, abstract = {This article examines the relationship between climate change and politics in Antarctica since the International Geophysical Year of 1957-8, paying particular attention to the work of the British Antarctic Survey. Research conducted in Antarctica has played an important role in the understanding of climate change on a global scale. In turn, fears about the consequences of global climate change have radically changed perceptions of Antarctica and profoundly shaped scientific research agendas: a continent that until fifty years ago was perceived largely as an inhospitable wilderness has come to be seen as a dangerously vulnerable environment. This radical shift in perception contrasts with a fundamental continuity in the political power structures of the continent. This article argues that the severity of the threat of climate change has reinforced the privileged political position of the "insider" nations within the Antarctic Treaty System.}, }
@article {pmid21936189, year = {2011}, author = {Vogel, B}, title = {The letter from Dublin: climate change, colonialism, and the Royal Society in the seventeenth century.}, journal = {Osiris}, volume = {26}, number = {}, pages = {111-128}, doi = {10.1086/661267}, pmid = {21936189}, issn = {0369-7827}, mesh = {Climate Change/*history ; Colonialism/*history ; England ; History, 17th Century ; Ireland ; Societies, Scientific/history ; United States ; }, abstract = {This article discusses an anonymous letter published in the Philosophical Transactions in 1676 that reports the theories of American colonists about the cause of their warming climate (cultivation and deforestation), and offers Ireland's colonial experience as a counterexample: Ireland was a colony with decreased cultivation, but the same perceived warming. That such an objection seemed necessary to the author shows that anthropogenic climate change could be a subject of debate and that the concept of climate was tied into theories of land use and to the colonial enterprise. Since he was liminal to both the Royal Society of London and the intellectual circles of Dublin, his skepticism, contextualized here, questions both the elite discourse and the discourse at the colonial periphery.}, }
@article {pmid21936185, year = {2011}, author = {Cushman, GT}, title = {Humboldtian science, Creole meteorology, and the discovery of human-caused climate change in South America.}, journal = {Osiris}, volume = {26}, number = {}, pages = {19-44}, pmid = {21936185}, issn = {0369-7827}, mesh = {Climate Change/*history ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*history ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Meteorology/*history ; Peru ; Venezuela ; }, abstract = {The belief that human land use is capable of causing large-scale climatic change lies at the root of modern conservation thought and policy. The origins and popularization of this belief were deeply politicized. Alexander von Humboldt's treatment of the Lake Valencia basin in Venezuela and the desert coast of Peru as natural laboratories for observing the interaction between geophysical and cultural forces was central to this discovery, as was Humboldt's belief that European colonialism was especially destructive to the land. Humboldt's overt cultivation of disciples was critical to building the prestige of this discovery and popularizing the Humboldtian scientific program, which depended fundamentally on local observers, but willfully marginalized chorographic knowledge systems. In creating new, global forms of environmental understanding, Humboldtian science also generated new forms of ignorance.}, }
@article {pmid21935419, year = {2011}, author = {Jaramillo, J and Muchugu, E and Vega, FE and Davis, A and Borgemeister, C and Chabi-Olaye, A}, title = {Some like it hot: the influence and implications of climate change on coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and coffee production in East Africa.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {e24528}, pmid = {21935419}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Africa ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Coffea/*parasitology ; *Coffee ; Coleoptera/*growth &amp; development/pathogenicity ; Ethiopia ; Insect Control ; }, abstract = {The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.}, }
@article {pmid21931977, year = {2012}, author = {Clarke, KL and Berry, P}, title = {From theory to practice: a Canadian case study of the utility of climate change adaptation frameworks to address health impacts.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, pages = {167-174}, pmid = {21931977}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; *Models, Theoretical ; Ontario ; *Public Health ; *Risk Management ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: It is now recognized that climate change affects human health. The question is how to adapt. This article examines mainstreaming climate considerations into public health programs and the utility of climate change and health adaptation frameworks, using Ontario, Canada, as a case study.<br><br>METHODS: A literature review identified climate change and health adaptation frameworks for comparison with the Ontario Public Health Standards. Key informant interviews gauged the extent to which climate change risks are currently considered in policy and planning.<br><br>RESULTS: Ontario's Public Health Standards already require many of the risk management activities identified in climate change and health adaptation frameworks. However, public health officials require additional information about linkages between climate change and health to manage risks.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Risk management activities such as population health assessments, surveillance and public education and outreach can address many key risks related to climate hazards when information about the risks, vulnerable populations and time scales is made available to health officials. The development, analysis and transfer of this information should be considered a priority at all levels within the public health sector.}, }
@article {pmid21931944, year = {2012}, author = {Zhang, L and Lu, W and An, Y and Li, D and Gong, L}, title = {Response of non-point source pollutant loads to climate change in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {184}, number = {1}, pages = {581-594}, pmid = {21931944}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Reproducibility of Results ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*chemistry ; Water Supply/*analysis/standards ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment are predicted by combining a general circulation model (HadCM3) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. A statistical downscaling model was used to generate future local scenarios of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. Then, the downscaled meteorological variables were used as input to the SWAT hydrological model calibrated and validated with observations, and the corresponding changes of future streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment were simulated and analyzed. Results show that daily temperature increases in three future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) relative to a baseline of 1961-1990, and the rate of increase is 0.63°C per decade. Annual precipitation also shows an apparent increase of 11 mm per decade. The calibration and validation results showed that the SWAT model was able to simulate well the streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads, with a coefficient of determination of 0.7 and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of about 0.7 for both the calibration and validation periods. The future climate change has a significant impact on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads. The annual streamflow shows a fluctuating upward trend from 2010 to 2099, with an increase rate of 1.1 m(3) s(-1) per decade, and a significant upward trend in summer, with an increase rate of 1.32 m(3) s(-1) per decade. The increase in summer contributes the most to the increase of annual load compared with other seasons. The annual NH (4) (+) -N load into Shitoukoumen reservoir shows a significant downward trend with a decrease rate of 40.6 t per decade. The annual TP load shows an insignificant increasing trend, and its change rate is 3.77 t per decade. The results of this analysis provide a scientific basis for effective support of decision makers and strategies of adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21931837, year = {2011}, author = {Huang, D and Haack, RA and Zhang, R}, title = {Does global warming increase establishment rates of invasive alien species? A centurial time series analysis.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {e24733}, pmid = {21931837}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; *Global Warming ; Insecta ; Introduced Species/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Statistics as Topic ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the relationship between global warming and establishment rate of invasive alien species, especially for poikilothermic invaders such as insects.<br><br>We present data that demonstrate a significant positive relationship between the change in average annual surface air temperature and the establishment rate of invasive alien insects in mainland China during 1900-2005. This relationship was modeled by regression analysis, and indicated that a 1 &#xb0;C increase in average annual surface temperature in mainland China was associated with an increase in the establishment rate of invasive alien insects of about 0.5 species year&#x207b;&#xb9;. The relationship between rising surface air temperature and increasing establishment rate remained significant even after accounting for increases in international trade during the period 1950-2005. Moreover, similar relationships were detected using additional data from the United Kingdom and the contiguous United States.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings suggest that the perceived increase in establishments of invasive alien insects can be explained only in part by an increase in introduction rate or propagule pressure. Besides increasing propagule pressure, global warming is another driver that could favor worldwide bioinvasions. Our study highlights the need to consider global warming when designing strategies and policies to deal with bioinvasions.}, }
@article {pmid21931524, year = {2011}, author = {Zivanovic, G and Mestres, F}, title = {Changes in chromosomal polymorphism and global warming: The case of Drosophila subobscura from Apatin (Serbia).}, journal = {Genetics and molecular biology}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {489-495}, pmid = {21931524}, issn = {1678-4685}, abstract = {In this study, chromosomal inversion polymorphism data for a natural population of Drosophila subobscura from a swampy region near the town of Apatin (Serbia) were compared with data for the same population collected approximately 15 years earlier. The pattern of chromosomal inversion polymorphism changed over time. There were significant increases in the frequency of characteristic southern latitude ("warm" adapted) chromosomal arrangements and significant decreases in the frequency of characteristic northern latitude ("cold" adapted) chromosomal arrangements in the O and U chromosomes. The chromosomal arrangements O(3+4) and O(3+4) (+) (22) (derived from the O(3+4) arrangement) showed significant increases in 2008 and 2009 with regard to the 1994 sample. There was also a significant increase (∼50%) in the U(1) (+) (2) arrangement, while U(1+8) (+) (2) (a typical southern arrangement) was detected for the first time. Since the Apatin swampy population of D. subobscura has existed for a long time in a stable habitat with high humidity that has not been changed by man our results indicate that natural selection has produced chromosomal changes in response to the increase in temperature that has occurred in the Balkan Peninsula of central southeastern European.}, }
@article {pmid21929631, year = {2012}, author = {Salazar-Parra, C and Aguirreolea, J and Sánchez-Díaz, M and Irigoyen, JJ and Morales, F}, title = {Climate change (elevated CO2, elevated temperature and moderate drought) triggers the antioxidant enzymes' response of grapevine cv. Tempranillo, avoiding oxidative damage.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {144}, number = {2}, pages = {99-110}, doi = {10.1111/j.1399-3054.2011.01524.x}, pmid = {21929631}, issn = {1399-3054}, mesh = {Antioxidants/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; Chlorophyll/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Fluorescence ; Hydrogen Peroxide/metabolism ; Lipid Peroxidation/drug effects ; Models, Biological ; Oxidation-Reduction/drug effects ; Oxidative Stress/*drug effects ; Plant Leaves/drug effects/enzymology ; *Temperature ; Thiobarbituric Acid Reactive Substances/metabolism ; Vitis/drug effects/*enzymology/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Photosynthetic carbon fixation (A(N)) and photosynthetic electron transport rate (ETR) are affected by different environmental stress factors, such as those associated with climate change. Under stress conditions, it can be generated an electron excess that cannot be consumed, which can react with O2, producing reactive oxygen species. This work was aimed to evaluate the influence of climate change (elevated CO2, elevated temperature and moderate drought) on the antioxidant status of grapevine (Vitis vinifera) cv. Tempranillo leaves, from veraison to ripeness. The lowest ratios between electrons generated (ETR) and consumed (A(N) + respiration + photorespiration) were observed in plants treated with elevated CO2 and elevated temperature. In partially irrigated plants under current ambient conditions, electrons not consumed seemed to be diverted to alternative ways. Oxidative damage to chlorophylls and carotenoids was not observed. However, these plants had increases in thiobarbituric acid reacting substances, an indication of lipid peroxidation. These increases matched well with an early rise of H2O2 and antioxidant enzyme activities, superoxide dismutase (EC 1.15.1.1), ascorbate peroxidase (EC 1.11.1.11) and catalase (EC 1.11.1.6). Enzymatic activities were maintained high until ripeness. In conclusion, plants grown under current ambient conditions and moderate drought were less efficient to cope with oxidative damage than well-irrigated plants, and more interestingly, plants grown under moderate drought but treated with elevated CO2 and elevated temperature were not affected by oxidative damage, mainly because of higher rates of electrons consumed in photosynthetic carbon fixation.}, }
@article {pmid21929490, year = {2011}, author = {Smith, JW and Maddern, GJ}, title = {Surgical implications of global warming.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {195}, number = {6}, pages = {324}, doi = {10.5694/mja11.10649}, pmid = {21929490}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; Burns/mortality/*surgery/therapy ; Computer Simulation/trends ; Disasters/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; World Health Organization ; Wounds and Injuries/mortality/*surgery/therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid21919986, year = {2011}, author = {Hope, AG and Waltari, E and Fedorov, VB and Goropashnaya, AV and Talbot, SL and Cook, JA}, title = {Persistence and diversification of the Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis (Family Soricidae), in response to climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {20}, number = {20}, pages = {4346-4370}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2011.05226.x}, pmid = {21919986}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/*genetics ; Ecosystem ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Genetic Variation ; *Phylogeography ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Shrews/*genetics ; Siberia ; }, abstract = {Environmental processes govern demography, species movements, community turnover and diversification and yet in many respects these dynamics are still poorly understood at high latitudes. We investigate the combined effects of climate change and geography through time for a widespread Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis. We include a comprehensive suite of closely related outgroup taxa and three independent loci to explore phylogeographic structure and historical demography. We then explore the implications of these findings for other members of boreal communities. The tundra shrew and its sister species, the Tien Shan shrew (Sorex asper), exhibit strong geographic population structure across Siberia and into Beringia illustrating local centres of endemism that correspond to Late Pleistocene refugia. Ecological niche predictions for both current and historical distributions indicate a model of persistence through time despite dramatic climate change. Species tree estimation under a coalescent process suggests that isolation between populations has been maintained across timeframes deeper than the periodicity of Pleistocene glacial cycling. That some species such as the tundra shrew have a history of persistence largely independent of changing climate, whereas other boreal species shifted their ranges in response to climate change, highlights the dynamic processes of community assembly at high latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid21917275, year = {2011}, author = {Chapman, PM}, title = {Global climate change means never going home again.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {62}, number = {11}, pages = {2269-2270}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2011.08.031}, pmid = {21917275}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods/*trends ; *Ecosystem ; *International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid21914637, year = {2012}, author = {Patrick, R and Capetola, T and Townsend, M and Nuttman, S}, title = {Health promotion and climate change: exploring the core competencies required for action.}, journal = {Health promotion international}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {475-485}, doi = {10.1093/heapro/dar055}, pmid = {21914637}, issn = {1460-2245}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Promotion/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Professional Competence ; Professional Role ; Qualitative Research ; Victoria ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses serious threats to human health and well-being. It exacerbates existing health inequities, impacts on the social determinants of health and disproportionately affects vulnerable populations. In the Australian region these include remote Aboriginal communities, Pacific Island countries and people with low incomes. Given health promotion's remit to protect and promote health, it should be well placed to respond to emerging climate-related health challenges. Yet, to date, there has been little evidence to demonstrate this. This paper draws on the findings of a qualitative study conducted in Victoria, Australia to highlight that; while there is clearly a role for health promotion in climate change mitigation and adaptation at the national and international levels, there is also a need for the engagement of health promoters at the community level. This raises several key issues for health promotion practice. To be better prepared to respond to climate change, health promotion practitioners first need to re-engage with the central tenets of the Ottawa Charter, namely the interconnectedness of humans and the natural environment and, secondly, the need to adopt ideas and frameworks from the sustainability field. The findings also open up a discussion for paradigmatic shifts in health promotion thinking and acting in the context of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21913049, year = {2012}, author = {Lacey, J}, title = {Climate change and Norman Daniels' theory of just health: an essay on basic needs.}, journal = {Medicine, health care, and philosophy}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {3-14}, pmid = {21913049}, issn = {1572-8633}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care/*ethics ; Environmental Health ; Global Health/ethics ; Humans ; Philosophy, Medical ; Public Policy ; *Social Justice ; }, abstract = {Norman Daniels, in applying Rawls' theory of justice to the issue of human health, ideally presupposes that society exists in a state of moderate scarcity. However, faced with problems like climate change, many societies find that their state of moderate scarcity is increasingly under threat. The first part of this essay aims to determine the consequences for Daniels' theory of just health when we incorporate into Rawls' understanding of justice the idea that the condition of moderate scarcity can fail. Most significantly, I argue for a generation-neutral principle of basic needs that is lexically prior to Rawls' familiar principles of justice. The second part of this paper aims to demonstrate how my reformulated version of Daniels' conception of just health can help to justify action on climate change and guide climate policy within liberal-egalitarian societies.}, }
@article {pmid21909653, year = {2012}, author = {Luo, Q and Yu, Q}, title = {Developing higher resolution climate change scenarios for agricultural risk assessment: progress, challenges and prospects.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {557-568}, pmid = {21909653}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate change presents perhaps the greatest economic and environmental challenge we have ever faced. Climate change and its associated impacts, adaptation and vulnerability have become the focus of current policy, business and research. This paper provides invaluable information for those interested in climate change and its impacts. This paper comprehensively reviews the advances made in the development of regional climate change scenarios and their application in agricultural impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Construction of regional climate change scenarios evolved from the application of arbitrary scenarios to the application of scenarios based on general circulation models (GCMs). GCM-based climate change scenarios progressed from equilibrium climate change scenarios to transient climate change scenarios; from the use of direct GCM outputs to the use of downscaled GCM outputs; from the use of single scenarios to the use of probabilistic climate change scenarios; and from the application of mean climate change scenarios to the application of integrated climate change scenarios considering changes in both mean climate and climate variability.}, }
@article {pmid21905452, year = {2011}, author = {Wilson, N and Slaney, D and Baker, MG and Hales, S and Britton, E}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases in New Zealand: a brief review and tentative research agenda.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {93-99}, doi = {10.1515/reveh.2011.013}, pmid = {21905452}, issn = {0048-7554}, mesh = {Biomedical Research ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Health Policy ; Health Priorities ; Humans ; New Zealand/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {AIMS: To review the literature on infectious diseases and meteorological and climate change risk factors in the New Zealand context and to describe a tentative research agenda for future work.<br><br>METHODS: We performed literature searches in May 2010 using Medline and Google Scholar. We also searched five health-related government agencies in New Zealand for documentation on climate change and health.<br><br>RESULTS: The effect of climate variability and change on vector-borne disease has been considered in more detail than any other infectious disease topic (n=20+ journal articles and reports relating to New Zealand). Generally, concern has arisen around the risk of new mosquito incursions and increased risks of dengue and Ross River fevers in the long term. For enteric diseases, the picture from five New Zealand publications is somewhat mixed, although the data indicate that salmonellosis notifications increase with higher monthly temperatures. One interpretation of the New Zealand data is that communities without reticulated water supplies could be more vulnerable to the effects of climate change-mediated increases in protozoan diseases. This information informed a tentative research agenda to address research gaps. Priorities include the need for further work on a more integrated surveillance framework, vector-borne diseases, enteric diseases, skin infections, and then work on topics for which we found no published New Zealand work (such as influenza and leptospirosis). Finally, we found that health-related government agencies in New Zealand have relatively little 'climate change and health' information on their websites.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Although some informative work has been done to date, much scope remains for additional research and planning to facilitate prevention, mitigation, and adaptation responses in the New Zealand setting around climate change and infectious disease risks. The tentative research agenda produced could benefit from a wider critique, and government agencies in New Zealand could contribute to informed discussions by better documenting the current state of knowledge on their websites.}, }
@article {pmid21905396, year = {2011}, author = {Kjellstrom, T and Crowe, J}, title = {Climate change, workplace heat exposure, and occupational health and productivity in Central America.}, journal = {International journal of occupational and environmental health}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {270-281}, doi = {10.1179/107735211799041931}, pmid = {21905396}, issn = {1077-3525}, mesh = {Central America/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Efficiency, Organizational ; Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology ; Humans ; *Occupational Exposure ; Occupational Health ; Occupations ; *Workplace ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasing heat exposure in places such as Central America, a tropical region with generally hot/humid conditions. Working people are at particular risk of heat stress because of the intrabody heat production caused by physical labor. This article aims to describe the risks of occupational heat exposure on health and productivity in Central America, and to make tentative estimates of the impact of ongoing climate change on these risks. A review of relevant literature and estimation of the heat exposure variable wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) in different locations within the region were used to estimate the effects. We found that heat stress at work is a real threat. Literature from Central America and heat exposure estimates show that some workers are already at risk under current conditions. These conditions will likely worsen with climate change, demonstrating the need to create solutions that will protect worker health and productivity.}, }
@article {pmid21903930, year = {2011}, author = {Heitzig, J and Lessmann, K and Zou, Y}, title = {Self-enforcing strategies to deter free-riding in the climate change mitigation game and other repeated public good games.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {38}, pages = {15739-15744}, pmid = {21903930}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Game Theory ; Gases/metabolism ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Public Health/*methods ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, abstract = {As the Copenhagen Accord indicates, most of the international community agrees that global mean temperature should not be allowed to rise more than two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels to avoid unacceptable damages from climate change. The scientific evidence distilled in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and recent reports by the US National Academies shows that this can only be achieved by vast reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Still, international cooperation on greenhouse gas emissions reductions suffers from incentives to free-ride and to renegotiate agreements in case of noncompliance, and the same is true for other so-called "public good games." Using game theory, we show how one might overcome these problems with a simple dynamic strategy of linear compensation when the parameters of the problem fulfill some general conditions and players can be considered to be sufficiently rational. The proposed strategy redistributes liabilities according to past compliance levels in a proportionate and timely way. It can be used to implement any given allocation of target contributions, and we prove that it has several strong stability properties.}, }
@article {pmid21901045, year = {2011}, author = {Kvåle, G and Fadnes, LT and Tryland, M and Pihlstrøm, L}, title = {Climate change--the biggest health threat of our time.}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {131}, number = {17}, pages = {1670-1672}, doi = {10.4045/tidsskr.11.0607}, pmid = {21901045}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Internationality ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid21900317, year = {2012}, author = {Russell, BD and Harley, CD and Wernberg, T and Mieszkowska, N and Widdicombe, S and Hall-Spencer, JM and Connell, SD}, title = {Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {164-166}, pmid = {21900317}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecology/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Models, Biological ; Physiology/*methods ; Plants ; Research ; }, abstract = {Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates.}, }
@article {pmid21900078, year = {2012}, author = {Ermert, V and Fink, AH and Morse, AP and Paeth, H}, title = {The impact of regional climate change on malaria risk due to greenhouse forcing and land-use changes in tropical Africa.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {120}, number = {1}, pages = {77-84}, pmid = {21900078}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Africa ; Animals ; Culicidae/parasitology/*physiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Bites and Stings/epidemiology ; Malaria/epidemiology/*transmission ; Plasmodium falciparum ; Rain ; Risk Assessment ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change will probably alter the spread and transmission intensity of malaria in Africa.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: In this study, we assessed potential changes in the malaria transmission via an integrated weather-disease model.<br><br>METHODS: We simulated mosquito biting rates using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the regional model (REMO) on a 0.5&#xb0; latitude-longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations to incorporate information on the infection rate among children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather-disease model for 2001 to 2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate.<br><br>RESULTS: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960 to 2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions where malaria is epidemic are located in the Sahel as well as in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected because of simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, the intensity of malaria transmission is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, whereas in the lower-altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We project that climate changes driven by greenhouse-gas and land-use changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of areas where malaria is epidemic might have to be significantly altered in the coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid21893330, year = {2012}, author = {Paerl, HW and Paul, VJ}, title = {Climate change: links to global expansion of harmful cyanobacteria.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {46}, number = {5}, pages = {1349-1363}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2011.08.002}, pmid = {21893330}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Animals ; Bacterial Toxins/toxicity ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; Fresh Water/microbiology ; Humans ; Lyngbya Toxins/toxicity ; Seawater/microbiology ; Temperature ; Water Quality/standards ; }, abstract = {Cyanobacteria are the Earth's oldest (∼3.5 bya) oxygen evolving organisms, and they have had major impacts on shaping our modern-day biosphere. Conversely, biospheric environmental perturbations, including nutrient enrichment and climatic changes (e.g. global warming, hydrologic changes, increased frequencies and intensities of tropical cyclones, more intense and persistent droughts), strongly affect cyanobacterial growth and bloom potentials in freshwater and marine ecosystems. We examined human and climatic controls on harmful (toxic, hypoxia-generating, food web disrupting) bloom-forming cyanobacteria (CyanoHABs) along the freshwater to marine continuum. These changes may act synergistically to promote cyanobacterial dominance and persistence. This synergy is a formidable challenge to water quality, water supply and fisheries managers, because bloom potentials and controls may be altered in response to contemporaneous changes in thermal and hydrologic regimes. In inland waters, hydrologic modifications, including enhanced vertical mixing and, if water supplies permit, increased flushing (reducing residence time) will likely be needed in systems where nutrient input reductions are neither feasible nor possible. Successful control of CyanoHABs by grazers is unlikely except in specific cases. Overall, stricter nutrient management will likely be the most feasible and practical approach to long-term CyanoHAB control in a warmer, stormier and more extreme world.}, }
@article {pmid21890877, year = {2011}, author = {Johnson, BH and Poulsen, TG and Hansen, JA and Lehmann, M}, title = {Cities as development drivers: from waste problems to energy recovery and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {1008-1017}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X11417488}, pmid = {21890877}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Cities ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods ; Denmark ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Gases ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Refuse Disposal/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods ; Sweden ; Waste Management/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods ; }, abstract = {There is a strong connection between economic growth and development of cities. Economic growth tends to stimulate city growth, and city economies have often shaped innovative environments that in turn support economic growth. Simultaneously, social and environmental problems related to city growth can be serious threats to the realization of the socio-economic contributions that cities can make. However, as a result of considerable diversity of competences combined with interactive learning and innovation, cities may also solve these problems. The 'urban order' may form a platform for innovative problem solving and potential spill-over effects, which may stimulate further economic growth and development. This paper discusses how waste problems of cities can be transformed to become part of new, more sustainable solutions. Two cases are explored: Aalborg in Denmark and Malmö in Sweden. It is shown that the cities have the potential to significantly contribute to a more sustainable development through increased material recycling and energy recovery. Waste prevention may increase this potential. For example, instead of constituting 3% of the total greenhouse gas emission problem, it seems possible for modern European cities to contribute to greenhouse gas emission reduction by 15% through up to date technology and integrated waste management systems for material and energy recovery. Going from being part of the problem to providing solutions; however, is not an easy endeavour. It requires political will and leadership, supportive regulatory frameworks, realistic timetables/roadmaps, and a diverse set of stakeholders that can provide the right creative and innovative mix to make it possible.}, }
@article {pmid21887231, year = {2011}, author = {Kou, X and Li, Q and Liu, S}, title = {Quantifying species' range shifts in relation to climate change: a case study of Abies spp. in China.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {e23115}, pmid = {21887231}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Abies/*physiology ; *Biodiversity ; China ; *Climate Change ; Databases as Topic ; Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Predicting species range shifts in response to climatic change is a central aspect of global change studies. An ever growing number of species have been modeled using a variety of species distribution models (SDMs). However, quantitative studies of the characteristics of range shifts are rare, predictions of range changes are hard to interpret, analyze and summarize, and comparisons between the various models are difficult to make when the number of species modeled is large. Maxent was used to model the distribution of 12 Abies spp. in China under current and possible future climate conditions. Two fuzzy set defined indices, range increment index (I) and range overlapping index (O), were used to quantify range shifts of the chosen species. Correlation analyses were used to test the relationships between these indices and species distribution characteristics. Our results show that Abies spp. range increments (I) were highly correlated with longitude, latitude, and mean roughness of their current distributions. Species overlapping (O) was moderately, or not, correlated with these parameters. Neither range increments nor overlapping showed any correlation with species prevalence. These fuzzy sets defined indices provide ideal measures of species range shifts because they are stable and threshold-free. They are reliable indices that allow large numbers of species to be described, modeled, and compared on a variety of taxonomic levels.}, }
@article {pmid21886028, year = {2011}, author = {Prasad, V and Thistlethwaite, W and Dale, W}, title = {Effect of clinical vignettes on senior medical students' opinions of climate change.}, journal = {Southern medical journal}, volume = {104}, number = {6}, pages = {401-404}, doi = {10.1097/SMJ.0b013e31821a841d}, pmid = {21886028}, issn = {1541-8243}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Data Collection ; *Decision Making ; Female ; Fossil Fuels/adverse effects ; Humans ; Male ; Random Allocation ; *Students, Medical ; United States ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: The consequences of climate change directly threaten human health. Some have argued that, as such, doctors have a special duty to solve climate change. Despite such recommendations, to our knowledge, there has been no previous work documenting physician attitudes on climate change, or the stability of those opinions.<br><br>METHODS: We invited 523 fourth-year medical students to a survey asking their opinion on climate change and their opinion regarding one of two fictional medical vignettes. In the vignettes, which are analogous to the climate change issue, students decide whether to discontinue a drug that may be adversely affecting laboratory values. In the climate change question, students are asked whether the United States should take efforts to discontinue the use of fossil fuels. Students are randomized to the order in which they receive the questions.<br><br>RESULTS: Ninety-five percent (95% CI 89.1%-100%) of students initially asked about climate change feel the United States should take steps to curb carbon dioxide emissions, while only 73% (95% CI 57.5%-89.2%) of students respond similarly if first given an analogous patient vignette. Conversely, in all cases where a fictional medical vignette follows the climate change question, students are more likely to cease using a potentially harmful agent (66% CI 53.5%-71.8% vs. 52% CI 43.3%-67.1%).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that student physician attitudes to climate change are mutable. Priming students into "medical mode" may alter their opinions on the scientific merit of nonmedical issues, and may be a vestige of a hidden medical curriculum. Further studies should explore the interrelationship between other sociopolitical beliefs and medical decision making.}, }
@article {pmid21885377, year = {2011}, author = {Potera, C}, title = {Climate change impacts indoor environment.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {9}, pages = {a382}, pmid = {21885377}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Air Pollution, Indoor ; *Climate Change ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid21885367, year = {2011}, author = {Cooney, CM}, title = {Climate change &amp; infectious disease: is the future here?.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {9}, pages = {a394-7}, pmid = {21885367}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid21882055, year = {2011}, author = {McNamara, KE and Westoby, R}, title = {Solastalgia and the gendered nature of climate change: an example from Erub Island, Torres Strait.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {233-236}, pmid = {21882055}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Aged ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Female ; Humans ; *Internal-External Control ; Interviews as Topic ; Mental Disorders/ethnology/*etiology ; Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander/*psychology ; Sex Factors ; Stress, Psychological/ethnology/*etiology ; }, abstract = {This communication focuses on respected older womens' ('Aunties') experiences of climate and other environmental change observed on Australia's Erub Island in the Torres Strait. By documenting these experiences, we explore the gendered nature of climate change, and provide new perspectives on how these environmental impacts are experienced, enacted and responded to. The way these adverse changes affect people and places is bound up with numerous constructions of difference, including gender. The responses of the Aunties interviewed to climate change impacts revealed Solastalgia; feelings of sadness, worry, fear and distress, along with a declining sense of self, belonging and familiarity.}, }
@article {pmid21880691, year = {2011}, author = {Sears, MW and Angilletta, MJ}, title = {Introduction to the symposium: responses of organisms to climate change: a synthetic approach to the role of thermal adaptation.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {51}, number = {5}, pages = {662-665}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icr113}, pmid = {21880691}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Biota ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Genetic Variation ; Interdisciplinary Communication ; Research/*organization &amp; administration ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {On a global scale, changing climates are affecting ecological systems across multiple levels of biological organization. Moreover, climates are changing at rates unprecedented in recent geological history. Thus, one of the most pressing concerns of the modern era is to understand the biological responses to climate such that society can both adapt and implement measures that attempt to offset the negative impacts of a rapidly changing climate. One crucial question, to understand organismal responses to climate, is whether the ability of organisms to adapt can keep pace with quickly changing environments. To address this question, a syntheses of knowledge from a broad set of biological disciplines will be needed that integrates information from the fields of ecology, behavior, physiology, genetics, and evolution. This symposium assembled a diverse group of scientists from these subdisciplines to present their perspectives regarding the ability of organisms to adapt to changing climates. Specifically, the goals of this symposia were to (1) highlight what each discipline brings to a discussion of organismal responses to climate, (2) to initiate and foster a discussion to break barriers in the transfer of knowledge across disciplines, and (3) to synthesize an approach to address ongoing issues concerning biological responses to climate.}, }
@article {pmid21880351, year = {2011}, author = {Augustsson, A and Filipsson, M and Oberg, T and Bergbäck, B}, title = {Climate change - An uncertainty factor in risk analysis of contaminated land.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {409}, number = {22}, pages = {4693-4700}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.07.051}, pmid = {21880351}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Cadmium/analysis/*toxicity ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure ; Environmental Pollution/*analysis ; Groundwater/*chemistry ; Humans ; Metallurgy ; Models, Theoretical ; Probability ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; Soil/*analysis ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {Metals frequently occur at contaminated sites, where their potential toxicity and persistence require risk assessments that consider possible long-term changes. Changes in climate are likely to affect the speciation, mobility, and risks associated with metals. This paper provides an example of how the climate effect can be inserted in a commonly used exposure model, and how the exposure then changes compared to present conditions. The comparison was made for cadmium (Cd) exposure to 4-year-old children at a highly contaminated iron and steel works site in southeastern Sweden. Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches (through probability bounds analysis, PBA) were used in the exposure assessment. Potential climate-sensitive variables were determined by a literature review. Although only six of the total 39 model variables were assumed to be sensitive to a change in climate (groundwater infiltration, hydraulic conductivity, soil moisture, soil:water distribution, and two bioconcentration factors), the total exposure was clearly affected. For example, by altering the climate-sensitive variables in the order of 15% to 20%, the deterministic estimate of exposure increased by 27%. Similarly, the PBA estimate of the reasonable maximum exposure (RME, defined as the upper bound of the 95th percentile) increased by almost 20%. This means that sites where the exposure in present conditions is determined to be slightly below guideline values may in the future exceed these guidelines, and risk management decisions could thus be affected. The PBA, however, showed that there is also a possibility of lower exposure levels, which means that the changes assumed for the climate-sensitive variables increase the total uncertainty in the probabilistic calculations. This highlights the importance of considering climate as a factor in the characterization of input data to exposure assessments at contaminated sites. The variable with the strongest influence on the result was the soil:water distribution coefficient (Kd).}, }
@article {pmid21879770, year = {2011}, author = {Baasandorj, M and Ravishankara, AR and Burkholder, JB}, title = {Atmospheric chemistry of (Z)-CF3CH═CHCF3: OH radical reaction rate coefficient and global warming potential.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {115}, number = {38}, pages = {10539-10549}, doi = {10.1021/jp206195g}, pmid = {21879770}, issn = {1520-5215}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Global Warming ; Hydrocarbons, Fluorinated/*chemistry ; Hydroxyl Radical/*chemistry ; Molecular Structure ; Pressure ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Rate coefficients, k, for the gas-phase reaction of the OH radical with (Z)-CF(3)CH═CHCF(3) (cis-1,1,1,4,4,4-hexafluoro-2-butene) were measured under pseudo-first-order conditions in OH using pulsed laser photolysis (PLP) to produce OH and laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) to detect it. Rate coefficients were measured over a range of temperatures (212-374 K) and bath gas pressures (20-200 Torr; He, N(2)) and found to be independent of pressure over this range of conditions. The rate coefficient has a non-Arrhenius behavior that is well-described by the expression k(1)(T) = (5.73 ± 0.60) × 10(-19) × T(2) × exp[(678 ± 10)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) where k(1)(296 K) was measured to be (4.91 ± 0.50) × 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) and the uncertainties are at the 2σ level and include estimated systematic errors. Rate coefficients for the analogous OD radical reaction were determined over a range of temperatures (262-374 K) at 100 Torr (He) to be k(2)(T) = (4.81 ± 0.20) × 10(-19) × T(2) × exp[(776 ± 15)/T], with k(2)(296 K) = (5.73 ± 0.50) × 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). OH radical rate coefficients were also measured at 296, 345, and 375 K using a relative rate technique and found to be in good agreement with the PLP-LIF results. A room-temperature rate coefficient for the O(3) + (Z)-CF(3)CH═CHCF(3) reaction was measured using an absolute method with O(3) in excess to be <6 × 10(-21) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The atmospheric lifetime of (Z)-CF(3)CH═CHCF(3) due to loss by OH reaction was estimated to be ~20 days. Infrared absorption spectra of (Z)-CF(3)CH═CHCF(3) measured in this work were used to determine a (Z)-CF(3)CH═CHCF(3) global warming potential (GWP) of ~9 for the 100 year time horizon. A comparison of the OH reactivity of (Z)-CF(3)CH═CHCF(3) with other unsaturated fluorinated compounds is presented.}, }
@article {pmid21876137, year = {2011}, author = {Le, PV and Kumar, P and Drewry, DT}, title = {Implications for the hydrologic cycle under climate change due to the expansion of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {37}, pages = {15085-15090}, pmid = {21876137}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Air ; *Biofuels ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Circadian Rhythm/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Meteorological Concepts ; Midwestern United States ; Models, Theoretical ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; Plant Leaves/metabolism ; Plant Transpiration/physiology ; Reproducibility of Results ; Stochastic Processes ; Temperature ; *Water Cycle ; }, abstract = {To meet emerging bioenergy demands, significant areas of the large-scale agricultural landscape of the Midwestern United States could be converted to second generation bioenergy crops such as miscanthus and switchgrass. The high biomass productivity of bioenergy crops in a longer growing season linked tightly to water use highlight the potential for significant impact on the hydrologic cycle in the region. This issue is further exacerbated by the uncertainty in the response of the vegetation under elevated CO(2) and temperature. We use a mechanistic multilayer canopy-root-soil model to (i) capture the eco-physiological acclimations of bioenergy crops under climate change, and (ii) predict how hydrologic fluxes are likely to be altered from their current magnitudes. Observed data and Monte Carlo simulations of weather for recent past and future scenarios are used to characterize the variability range of the predictions. Under present weather conditions, miscanthus and switchgrass utilized more water than maize for total seasonal evapotranspiration by approximately 58% and 36%, respectively. Projected higher concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) (550 ppm) is likely to decrease water used for evapotranspiration of miscanthus, switchgrass, and maize by 12%, 10%, and 11%, respectively. However, when climate change with projected increases in air temperature and reduced summer rainfall are also considered, there is a net increase in evapotranspiration for all crops, leading to significant reduction in soil-moisture storage and specific surface runoff. These results highlight the critical role of the warming climate in potentially altering the water cycle in the region under extensive conversion of existing maize cropping to support bioenergy demand.}, }
@article {pmid21874951, year = {2011}, author = {Hill, AC}, title = {Prospects for future climate change and the reasons for early action.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {61}, number = {8}, pages = {810-1; author reply 812-4}, pmid = {21874951}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; Public Policy ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid21874184, year = {2011}, author = {Bravo, I and Díaz-de-Mera, Y and Aranda, A and Moreno, E and Nutt, DR and Marston, G}, title = {Radiative efficiencies for fluorinated esters: indirect global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers.}, journal = {Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP}, volume = {13}, number = {38}, pages = {17185-17193}, doi = {10.1039/c1cp21874c}, pmid = {21874184}, issn = {1463-9084}, abstract = {Density Functional Theory (DFT) has been used with an empirically-derived correction for the wavenumbers of vibrational band positions to predict the infrared spectra of several fluorinated esters (FESs). Radiative efficiencies (REs) were then determined using the method of Pinnock et al. and these were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine the direct global warming potentials of FESs. FESs, in particular fluoroalkylacetates, alkylfluoroacetates and fluoroalkylformates, are potential greenhouse gases and their likely long atmospheric lifetimes and relatively large REs, compared to their parent HFEs, make them active contributors to global warming. Here, we use the concept of indirect global warming potential (indirect GWP) to assess the contribution to the warming of several commonly used HFEs emitted from the Earth's surface, explicitly taking into account that these HFEs will be converted into the corresponding FESs in the troposphere. The indirect GWP can be calculated using the radiative efficiencies and lifetimes of the HFE and its degradation FES products. We found that the GWPs of those studied HFEs which have the smallest direct GWP can be increased by 100-1600% when taking account of the cumulative effect due to the secondary FESs formed during HFE atmospheric oxidation. This effect may be particularly important for non-segregated HFEs and some segregated HFEs, which may contribute significantly more to global warming than can be concluded from examination of their direct GWPs.}, }
@article {pmid21873114, year = {2011}, author = {Bouma, MJ and Baeza, A and terVeen, A and Pascual, M}, title = {Global malaria maps and climate change: a focus on East African highlands.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {27}, number = {10}, pages = {421-422}, doi = {10.1016/j.pt.2011.07.003}, pmid = {21873114}, issn = {1471-5007}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; *Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/parasitology/transmission ; *Maps as Topic ; Plasmodium falciparum/growth &amp; development/pathogenicity ; Prevalence ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid21870966, year = {2011}, author = {Lee, SH and Chon, TS}, title = {Effects of climate change on subterranean termite territory size: a simulation study.}, journal = {Journal of insect science (Online)}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {80}, pmid = {21870966}, issn = {1536-2442}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; Feeding Behavior ; *Isoptera ; *Models, Biological ; Population Density ; *Territoriality ; }, abstract = {In order to study how climate change affects the territory size of subterranean termites, a lattice model was used to simulate the foraging territory of the Formosan subterranean termite, Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae), and the minimized local rules that are based on empirical data from the development of termites' foraging territory was applied. A landscape was generated by randomly assigning values ranging from 0.0 to 1.0 to each lattice site, which represented the spatially distributed property of the landscape. At the beginning of the simulation run, N territory seeds - one for each founding pair, were randomly distributed on the lattice space. The territories grew during the summer and shrank during the winter. In the model, the effects of climate change were demonstrated by changes in two variables: the period of the summer season, T, and the percentage of the remaining termite cells, σ, after the shrinkage. The territory size distribution was investigated in the size descending order for the values of T (= 10, 15, ... , 50) and σ (= 10, 15, ... , 50) at a steady state after a sufficiently long time period. The distribution was separated into two regions: the larger-sized territories and the smaller-sized territories. The slope, m, of the distribution of territory size on a semi-log scale for the larger-sized territories was maximal with T (45 ≤ T ≤ 50) in the maximal range and with σ in the optimal range (30 ≤ σ ≤ 40), regardless of the value of N. The results suggest that the climate change can influence the termite territory size distribution under the proper balance of T and σ in combination.}, }
@article {pmid21869517, year = {2011}, author = {Johnson, JM and Archer, DW and Weyers, SL and Barbour, NW}, title = {Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. corn belt?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {40}, number = {5}, pages = {1551-1559}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2011.0105}, pmid = {21869517}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Biomass ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Gases ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; United States ; *Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Agricultural management practices that enhance C sequestration, reduce greenhouse gas emission (nitrous oxide [N2O], methane [CH4], and carbon dioxide [CO2]), and promote productivity are needed to mitigate global warming without sacrificing food production. The objectives of the study were to compare productivity, greenhouse gas emission, and change in soil C over time and to assess whether global warming potential and global warming potential per unit biomass produced were reduced through combined mitigation strategies when implemented in the northern U.S. Corn Belt. The systems compared were (i) business as usual (BAU); (ii) maximum C sequestration (MAXC); and (iii) optimum greenhouse gas benefit (OGGB). Biomass production, greenhouse gas flux change in total and organic soil C, and global warming potential were compared among the three systems. Soil organic C accumulated only in the surface 0 to 5 cm. Three-year average emission of N2O and CH was similar among all management systems. When integrated from planting to planting, N2O emission was similar for MAXC and OGGB systems, although only MAXC was fertilized. Overall, the three systems had similar global warming potential based on 4-yr changes in soil organic C, but average rotation biomass was less in the OGGB systems. Global warming potential per dry crop yield was the least for the MAXC system and the most for OGGB system. This suggests management practices designed to reduce global warming potential can be achieved without a loss of productivity. For example, MAXC systems over time may provide sufficient soil C sequestration to offset associated greenhouse gas emission.}, }
@article {pmid21865835, year = {2011}, author = {Shapira, N}, title = {'Health-oriented agriculture' for nutritional security versus climate change risks in the Mediterranean Basin.}, journal = {World review of nutrition and dietetics}, volume = {102}, number = {}, pages = {201-211}, doi = {10.1159/000327824}, pmid = {21865835}, issn = {1662-3975}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Consumer Product Safety/standards ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Diet, Mediterranean ; Food Contamination/analysis/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Food Supply/economics/*standards ; Health Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*trends ; Humans ; Mediterranean Region ; Nutritive Value ; Public Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*trends ; Risk Factors ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid21865834, year = {2011}, author = {Tapsell, LC and Probst, Y and Lawrence, M and Friel, S and Flood, V and McMahon, A and Butler, R}, title = {Food and nutrition security in the Australia-New Zealand region: impact of climate change.}, journal = {World review of nutrition and dietetics}, volume = {102}, number = {}, pages = {192-200}, doi = {10.1159/000327823}, pmid = {21865834}, issn = {1662-3975}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Consumer Product Safety ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Food Supply ; Health Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; Health Status ; Humans ; New Zealand ; Nutritive Value ; Public Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; Risk Assessment ; *Seafood ; }, }
@article {pmid21865833, year = {2011}, author = {Gopalan, S}, title = {Climate change and its potential impact on the nutritional scenario in South-East Asia.}, journal = {World review of nutrition and dietetics}, volume = {102}, number = {}, pages = {183-191}, doi = {10.1159/000327812}, pmid = {21865833}, issn = {1662-3975}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Asia, Southeastern ; Biotechnology/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; *Climate Change ; Consumer Product Safety/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/*standards ; Food Contamination/*economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Food Supply/*economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Foodborne Diseases/economics ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect/economics ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; India ; Nutritive Value ; Regional Health Planning/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; Risk Factors ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid21865832, year = {2011}, author = {Li, D and Yap, KS}, title = {Climate change and its impact on food and nutrition security and food safety in China.}, journal = {World review of nutrition and dietetics}, volume = {102}, number = {}, pages = {175-182}, doi = {10.1159/000327807}, pmid = {21865832}, issn = {1662-3975}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture/standards ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Consumer Product Safety ; Crops, Agricultural/standards ; Developing Countries ; Environmental Health ; Food Contamination/analysis ; *Food Safety ; Food Supply/*standards ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Livestock ; *Population Growth ; Regional Health Planning ; Urbanization ; }, }
@article {pmid21865831, year = {2011}, author = {Faergeman, O}, title = {Global warming and cardiovascular health: mind the gap.}, journal = {World review of nutrition and dietetics}, volume = {102}, number = {}, pages = {172-174}, doi = {10.1159/000327806}, pmid = {21865831}, issn = {1662-3975}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/*prevention &amp; control ; Climate ; *Environmental Health ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid21861210, year = {2011}, author = {Friel, S and Hancock, T and Kjellstrom, T and McGranahan, G and Monge, P and Roy, J}, title = {Urban health inequities and the added pressure of climate change: an action-oriented research agenda.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {88}, number = {5}, pages = {886-895}, pmid = {21861210}, issn = {1468-2869}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases ; Emigration and Immigration ; Environment Design ; Food Supply ; *Health Services Research ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Occupational Health ; *Urban Health ; Urbanization ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change will likely exacerbate already existing urban social inequities and health risks, thereby exacerbating existing urban health inequities. Cities in low- and middle-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Urbanization is both a cause of and potential solution to global climate change. Most population growth in the foreseeable future will occur in urban areas primarily in developing countries. How this growth is managed has enormous implications for climate change given the increasing concentration and magnitude of economic production in urban localities, as well as the higher consumption practices of urbanites, especially the middle classes, compared to rural populations. There is still much to learn about the extent to which climate change affects urban health equity and what can be done effectively in different socio-political and socio-economic contexts to improve the health of urban dwelling humans and the environment. But it is clear that equity-oriented climate change adaptation means attention to the social conditions in which urban populations live-this is not just a climate change policy issue, it requires inter-sectoral action. Policies and programs in urban planning and design, workplace health and safety, and urban agriculture can help mitigate further climate change and adapt to existing climate change. If done well, these will also be good for urban health equity.}, }
@article {pmid21860661, year = {2011}, author = {Sharma, S and Vander Zanden, MJ and Magnuson, JJ and Lyons, J}, title = {Comparing climate change and species invasions as drivers of coldwater fish population extirpations.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {e22906}, pmid = {21860661}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; *Introduced Species ; *Lakes ; Osmeriformes/*physiology ; Population Density ; Salmonidae/*physiology ; Uncertainty ; Wisconsin ; }, abstract = {Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25-70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change.}, }
@article {pmid21855738, year = {2011}, author = {Sheffield, PE and Knowlton, K and Carr, JL and Kinney, PL}, title = {Modeling of regional climate change effects on ground-level ozone and childhood asthma.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {41}, number = {3}, pages = {251-7; quiz A3}, pmid = {21855738}, issn = {1873-2607}, support = {ES09089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T32 HD049311/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; 5T32 HD049311/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; L40 ES017745/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; L40 ES017745-01/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Air Pollutants/toxicity ; Asthma/chemically induced/*epidemiology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Emergency Service, Hospital/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Infant ; Models, Theoretical ; New York City ; Ozone/*toxicity ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The adverse respiratory effects of ground-level ozone are well established. Ozone is the air pollutant most consistently projected to increase under future climate change.<br><br>PURPOSE: To project future pediatric asthma emergency department visits associated with ground-level ozone changes, comparing 1990s to 2020s.<br><br>METHODS: This study assessed future numbers of asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0-17 years using (1) baseline New York City metropolitan area emergency department rates; (2) a dose-response relationship between ozone levels and pediatric asthma emergency department visits; and (3) projected daily 8-hour maximum ozone concentrations for the 2020s as simulated by a global-to-regional climate change and atmospheric chemistry model. Sensitivity analyses included population projections and ozone precursor changes. This analysis occurred in 2010.<br><br>RESULTS: In this model, climate change could cause an increase in regional summer ozone-related asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0-17 years of 7.3% across the New York City metropolitan region by the 2020s. This effect diminished with inclusion of ozone precursor changes. When population growth is included, the projections of morbidity related to ozone are even larger.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results of this analysis demonstrate that the use of regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models make possible the projection of local climate change health effects for specific age groups and specific disease outcomes, such as emergency department visits for asthma. Efforts should be made to improve on this type of modeling to inform local and wider-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation policy.}, }
@article {pmid21852573, year = {2011}, author = {Koven, CD and Ringeval, B and Friedlingstein, P and Ciais, P and Cadule, P and Khvorostyanov, D and Krinner, G and Tarnocai, C}, title = {Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {36}, pages = {14769-14774}, pmid = {21852573}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Carbon ; *Cold Climate ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y, with increases due to CO(2) fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.}, }
@article {pmid21852275, year = {2011}, author = {Shimizu, KK and Kudoh, H and Kobayashi, MJ}, title = {Plant sexual reproduction during climate change: gene function in natura studied by ecological and evolutionary systems biology.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {108}, number = {4}, pages = {777-787}, pmid = {21852275}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Genes, Plant/*genetics ; Models, Biological ; Plants/*genetics ; Reproduction/genetics ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: It is essential to understand and predict the effects of changing environments on plants. This review focuses on the sexual reproduction of plants, as previous studies have suggested that this trait is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and because a number of ecologically and evolutionarily relevant genes have been identified.<br><br>SCOPE: It is proposed that studying gene functions in naturally fluctuating conditions, or gene functions in natura, is important to predict responses to changing environments. First, we discuss flowering time, an extensively studied example of phenotypic plasticity. The quantitative approaches of ecological and evolutionary systems biology have been used to analyse the expression of a key flowering gene, FLC, of Arabidopsis halleri in naturally fluctuating environments. Modelling showed that FLC acts as a quantitative tracer of the temperature over the preceding 6 weeks. The predictions of this model were verified experimentally, confirming its applicability to future climate changes. Second, the evolution of self-compatibility as exemplifying an evolutionary response is discussed. Evolutionary genomic and functional analyses have indicated that A. thaliana became self-compatible via a loss-of-function mutation in the male specificity gene, SCR/SP11. Self-compatibility evolved during glacial-interglacial cycles, suggesting its association with mate limitation during migration. Although the evolution of self-compatibility may confer short-term advantages, it is predicted to increase the risk of extinction in the long term because loss-of-function mutations are virtually irreversible.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Recent studies of FLC and SCR have identified gene functions in natura that are unlikely to be found in laboratory experiments. The significance of epigenetic changes and the study of non-model species with next-generation DNA sequencers is also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid21850505, year = {2011}, author = {Lemieux, CJ and Scott, DJ}, title = {Changing climate, challenging choices: identifying and evaluating climate change adaptation options for protected areas management in Ontario, Canada.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {675-690}, pmid = {21850505}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Decision Making, Organizational ; *Decision Support Techniques ; Ontario ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change will pose increasingly significant challenges to managers of parks and other forms of protected areas around the world. Over the past two decades, numerous scientific publications have identified potential adaptations, but their suitability from legal, policy, financial, internal capacity, and other management perspectives has not been evaluated for any protected area agency or organization. In this study, a panel of protected area experts applied a Policy Delphi methodology to identify and evaluate climate change adaptation options across the primary management areas of a protected area agency in Canada. The panel identified and evaluated one hundred and sixty five (165) adaptation options for their perceived desirability and feasibility. While the results revealed a high level of agreement with respect to the desirability of adaptation options and a moderate level of capacity pertaining to policy formulation and management direction, a perception of low capacity for implementation in most other program areas was identified. A separate panel of senior park agency decision-makers used a multiple criterion decision-facilitation matrix to further evaluate the institutional feasibility of the 56 most desirable adaptation options identified by the initial expert panel and to prioritize them for consideration in a climate change action plan. Critically, only two of the 56 adaptation options evaluated by senior decision-makers were deemed definitely implementable, due largely to fiscal and internal capacity limitations. These challenges are common to protected area agencies in developed countries and pervade those in developing countries, revealing that limited adaptive capacity represents a substantive barrier to biodiversity conservation and other protected area management objectives in an era of rapid climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21848139, year = {2011}, author = {Wang, F and Xu, YJ and Dean, TJ}, title = {Projecting climate change effects on forest net primary productivity in subtropical Louisiana, USA.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {40}, number = {5}, pages = {506-520}, pmid = {21848139}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Trees ; United States ; }, abstract = {This study projected responses of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to three climate change scenarios at a resolution of 5 km x 5 km across the state of Louisiana, USA. In addition, we assessed uncertainties associated with the NPP projection at the grid and state levels. Climate data of the scenarios were derived from Community Climate System Model outputs. Changes in annual NPP between 2000 and 2050 were projected with the forest ecosystem model PnET-II. Results showed that forest productivity would increase under climate change scenarios A1B and A2, but with scenario B1, it would peak during 2011-2020 and then decline. The projected average NPP under B1 over the years from 2000 to 2050 was significantly different from those under A1B and A2. Forest NPP appeared to be primarily a function of temperature, not precipitation. Uncertainties of the NPP projection were due to large spatial resolution of the climate variables. Overall, this study suggested that in order to project effects of climate change on forest ecosystem at regional level, modeling uncertainties could be reduced by increasing the spatial resolution of the climate projections.}, }
@article {pmid21845162, year = {2011}, author = {Hambling, T and Weinstein, P and Slaney, D}, title = {A review of frameworks for developing environmental health indicators for climate change and health.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {2854-2875}, pmid = {21845162}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Health Policy ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Public Health/methods ; Risk Assessment/methods ; }, abstract = {The role climate change may play in altering human health, particularly in the emergence and spread of diseases, is an evolving area of research. It is important to understand this relationship because it will compound the already significant burden of diseases on national economies and public health. Authorities need to be able to assess, anticipate, and monitor human health vulnerability to climate change, in order to plan for, or implement action to avoid these eventualities. Environmental health indicators (EHIs) provide a tool to assess, monitor, and quantify human health vulnerability, to aid in the design and targeting of interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Our aim was to identify the most suitable framework for developing EHIs to measure and monitor the impacts of climate change on human health and inform the development of interventions. Using published literature we reviewed the attributes of 11 frameworks. We identified the Driving force-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) framework as the most suitable one for developing EHIs for climate change and health. We propose the use of EHIs as a valuable tool to assess, quantify, and monitor human health vulnerability, design and target interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. In this paper, we lay the groundwork for the future development of EHIs as a multidisciplinary approach to link existing environmental and epidemiological data and networks. Analysis of such data will contribute to an enhanced understanding of the relationship between climate change and human health.}, }
@article {pmid21844354, year = {2011}, author = {Wenger, SJ and Isaak, DJ and Luce, CH and Neville, HM and Fausch, KD and Dunham, JB and Dauwalter, DC and Young, MK and Elsner, MM and Rieman, BE and Hamlet, AF and Williams, JE}, title = {Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {34}, pages = {14175-14180}, pmid = {21844354}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Species Specificity ; *Temperature ; Trout/*growth &amp; development ; United States ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km(2)), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.}, }
@article {pmid21844047, year = {2011}, author = {Maiorano, L and Falcucci, A and Zimmermann, NE and Psomas, A and Pottier, J and Baisero, D and Rondinini, C and Guisan, A and Boitani, L}, title = {The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {366}, number = {1578}, pages = {2681-2692}, pmid = {21844047}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Endangered Species/*trends ; Mammals/*growth &amp; development ; Mediterranean Region ; }, abstract = {The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.}, }
@article {pmid21844000, year = {2011}, author = {Lloyd, SJ and Kovats, RS and Chalabi, Z}, title = {Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {12}, pages = {1817-1823}, pmid = {21844000}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology ; Asia/epidemiology ; Child Nutrition Disorders/*epidemiology ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Forecasting ; Growth and Development/*physiology ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050.<br><br>METHODS: We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change).<br><br>RESULTS: We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid21842774, year = {2011}, author = {}, title = {Global warming and your health.}, journal = {American family physician}, volume = {84}, number = {3}, pages = {282-283}, pmid = {21842774}, issn = {1532-0650}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid21842773, year = {2011}, author = {Parker, CL}, title = {Slowing global warming: benefits for patients and the planet.}, journal = {American family physician}, volume = {84}, number = {3}, pages = {271-278}, pmid = {21842773}, issn = {1532-0650}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/transmission ; Diet ; Facility Design and Construction ; Food Supply ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; Transportation ; Water Supply ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Global warming will cause significant harm to the health of persons and their communities by compromising food and water supplies; increasing risks of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases and heat stress; changing social determinants of health resulting from extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and expanding flood plains; and worsening air quality, resulting in additional morbidity and mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Vulnerable populations such as children, older persons, persons living at or below the poverty level, and minorities will be affected earliest and greatest, but everyone likely will be affected at some point. Family physicians can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, stabilize the climate, and reduce the risks of climate change while also directly improving the health of their patients. Health interventions that have a beneficial effect on climate change include encouraging patients to reduce the amount of red meat in their diets and to replace some vehicular transportation with walking or bicycling. Patients are more likely to make such lifestyle changes if their physician asks them to and leads by example. Medical offices and hospitals can become more energy efficient by recycling, purchasing wind-generated electricity, and turning off appliances, computers, and lights when not in use. Moreover, physicians can play an important role in improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by advocating for enforcement of existing air quality regulations and working with local and national policy makers to further improve air quality standards, thereby improving the health of their patients and slowing global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21842770, year = {2011}, author = {Gould, RM}, title = {The physician's role in efforts to slow global warming.}, journal = {American family physician}, volume = {84}, number = {3}, pages = {256-257}, pmid = {21842770}, issn = {1532-0650}, mesh = {Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid21833644, year = {2012}, author = {Moses, MR and Frey, JK and Roemer, GW}, title = {Elevated surface temperature depresses survival of banner-tailed kangaroo rats: will climate change cook a desert icon?.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {168}, number = {1}, pages = {257-268}, pmid = {21833644}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Dipodomys/*physiology ; Fever ; Models, Biological ; New Mexico ; Seasons ; Survival Rate ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Modest increases in global temperature have been implicated in causing population extirpations and range shifts in taxa inhabiting colder environs and in ectotherms whose thermoregulation is more closely tied to environmental conditions. Many arid-adapted endotherms already experience conditions at their physiological limits, so it is conceivable that they could be similarly affected by warming temperatures. We explored how climatic variables might influence the apparent survival of the banner-tailed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys spectabilis), a rodent endemic to the Chihuahuan Desert of North America and renowned for its behavioral and physiological adaptations to arid environments. Relative variable weight, strength of variable relationships, and other criteria indicated that summer, diurnal land surface temperature (SD_LST) was the primary environmental driver of apparent survival in these arid-adapted rodents. Higher temperatures had a negative effect on apparent survival, which ranged from 0.15 (SE = 0.04) for subadults to 0.50 (SE = 0.07) for adults. Elevated SD_LST may negatively influence survival through multiple pathways, including increased water loss and energy expenditure that could lead to chronic stress and/or hyperthermia that could cause direct mortality. Land surface temperatures are predicted to increase by as much 6.5°C by 2099, reducing apparent survival of adults to ~0.15 in some regions of the species' range, possibly causing a shift in their distribution. The relationship between SD_LST and survival suggests a mechanism whereby physiological tolerances are exceeded resulting in a reduction to individual fitness that may ultimately cause a shift in the species' range over time.}, }
@article {pmid21831809, year = {2011}, author = {Adisesh, A and Robinson, E and Curran, AD}, title = {Climate change: enabling a better working Britain for the next 100 years.}, journal = {Occupational medicine (Oxford, England)}, volume = {61}, number = {5}, pages = {292-294}, doi = {10.1093/occmed/kqr050}, pmid = {21831809}, issn = {1471-8405}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; Building Codes ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Industry/methods ; Radiation ; Risk Assessment ; United Kingdom ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid21830704, year = {2011}, author = {Gray, LK and Gylander, T and Mbogga, MS and Chen, PY and Hamann, A}, title = {Assisted migration to address climate change: recommendations for aspen reforestation in western Canada.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {21}, number = {5}, pages = {1591-1603}, doi = {10.1890/10-1054.1}, pmid = {21830704}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; Populus/*physiology ; Remote Sensing Technology ; Seeds/physiology ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Human-aided movement of species populations in large-scale reforestation programs could be a potent and cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy. Such large-scale management interventions, however, tend to entail the risks of unintended consequences, and we propose that three conditions should be met before implementing assisted migration in reforestation programs: (1) evidence of a climate-related adaptational lag, (2) observed biological impacts, and (3) robust model projections to target assisted migration efforts. In a case study of aspen (Populus tremuloides Michaux.) we use reciprocal transplant experiments to study adaptation of tree populations to local environments. Second, we monitor natural aspen populations using the MODIS enhanced vegetation index as a proxy for forest health and productivity. Last, we report results from bioclimate envelope models that predict suitable habitat for locally adapted genotypes under observed and predicted climate change. The combined results support assisted migration prescriptions and indicate that the risk of inaction likely exceeds the risk associated with changing established management practices. However, uncertainty in model projections also implies that we are restricted to a relatively short 20-year planning horizon for prescribing seed movement in reforestation programs. We believe that this study exemplifies a safe and realistic climate change adaptation strategy based on multiple sources of information and some understanding of the uncertainty associated with recommendations for assisted migration. Ad hoc migration prescriptions without a similar level of supporting information should be avoided in reforestation programs.}, }
@article {pmid21830703, year = {2011}, author = {Silvestrini, RA and Soares-Filho, BS and Nepstad, D and Coe, M and Rodrigues, H and Assunção, R}, title = {Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {21}, number = {5}, pages = {1573-1590}, doi = {10.1890/10-0827.1}, pmid = {21830703}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Fires ; Human Activities ; *Models, Theoretical ; Reproducibility of Results ; Time Factors ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Fires in tropical forests release globally significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and may increase in importance as a result of climate change. Despite the striking impacts of fire on tropical ecosystems, the paucity of robust spatial models of forest fire still hampers our ability to simulate tropical forest fire regimes today and in the future. Here we present a probabilistic model of human-induced fire occurrence for the Amazon that integrates the effects of a series of anthropogenic factors with climatic conditions described by vapor pressure deficit. The model was calibrated using NOAA-12 night satellite hot pixels for 2003 and validated for the years 2002, 2004, and 2005. Assessment of the fire risk map yielded fitness values > 85% for all months from 2002 to 2005. Simulated fires exhibited high overlap with NOAA-12 hot pixels regarding both spatial and temporal distributions, showing a spatial fit of 50% within a radius of 11 km and a maximum yearly frequency deviation of 15%. We applied this model to simulate fire regimes in the Amazon until 2050 using IPCC's A2 scenario climate data from the Hadley Centre model and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of deforestation and road expansion from SimAmazonia. Results show that the combination of these scenarios may double forest fire occurrence outside protected areas (PAs) in years of extreme drought, expanding the risk of fire even to the northwestern Amazon by midcentury. In particular, forest fires may increase substantially across southern and southwestern Amazon, especially along the highways slated for paving and in agricultural zones. Committed emissions from Amazon forest fires and deforestation under a scenario of global warming and uncurbed deforestation may amount to 21 +/- 4 Pg of carbon by 2050. BAU deforestation may increase fires occurrence outside PAs by 19% over the next four decades, while climate change alone may account for a 12% increase. In turn, the combination of climate change and deforestation would boost fire occurrence outside PAs by half during this period. Our modeling results, therefore, confirm the synergy between the two Ds of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries).}, }
@article {pmid21827033, year = {2011}, author = {}, title = {Where are we on climate change?.}, journal = {The Queensland nurse}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {35}, pmid = {21827033}, issn = {0815-936X}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Commerce ; Humans ; *Public Opinion ; }, }
@article {pmid21826236, year = {2011}, author = {Booth, DT and Evans, A}, title = {Warm water and cool nests are best. How global warming might influence hatchling green turtle swimming performance.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {e23162}, pmid = {21826236}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; *Global Warming ; *Swimming ; Temperature ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {For sea turtles nesting on beaches surrounded by coral reefs, the most important element of hatchling recruitment is escaping predation by fish as they swim across the fringing reef, and as a consequence hatchlings that minimize their exposure to fish predation by minimizing the time spent crossing the fringing reef have a greater chance of surviving the reef crossing. One way to decrease the time required to cross the fringing reef is to maximize swimming speed. We found that both water temperature and nest temperature influence swimming performance of hatchling green turtles, but in opposite directions. Warm water increases swimming ability, with hatchling turtles swimming in warm water having a faster stroke rate, while an increase in nest temperature decreases swimming ability with hatchlings from warm nests producing less thrust per stroke.}, }
@article {pmid21826214, year = {2011}, author = {Hu, J and Jiang, Z}, title = {Climate change hastens the conservation urgency of an endangered ungulate.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {e22873}, pmid = {21826214}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Deer ; Endangered Species ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {Global climate change appears to be one of the main threats to biodiversity in the near future and is already affecting the distribution of many species. Currently threatened species are a special concern while the extent to which they are sensitive to climate change remains uncertain. Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) is classified as endangered and a conservation focus on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using measures of species range shift, we explored how the distribution of Przewalski's gazelle may be impacted by projected climate change based on a maximum entropy approach. We also evaluated the uncertainty in the projections of the risks arising from climate change. Modeling predicted the Przewalski's gazelle would be sensitive to future climate change. As the time horizon increased, the strength of effects from climate change increased. Even assuming unlimited dispersal capacity of gazelles, a moderate decrease to complete loss of range was projected by 2080 under different thresholds for transforming the probability prediction to presence/absence data. Current localities of gazelles will undergo a decrease in their occurrence probability. Projections of the impacts of climate change were significantly affected by thresholds and general circulation models. This study suggests climate change clearly poses a severe threat and increases the extinction risk to Przewalski's gazelle. Our findings 1) confirm that endangered endemic species is highly vulnerable to climate change and 2) highlight the fact that forecasting impacts of climate change needs an assessment of the uncertainty. It is extremely important that conservation strategies consider the predicted geographical shifts and be planned with full knowledge of the reliability of projected impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21825131, year = {2011}, author = {Bellon, MR and Hodson, D and Hellin, J}, title = {Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seed systems in Mexico to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {33}, pages = {13432-13437}, pmid = {21825131}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; Crops, Agricultural/economics ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Mexico ; Seeds ; Zea mays/economics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to have major impacts on small-scale farmers in Mexico whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed maize. We examined the capacity of traditional maize seed systems to provide these farmers with appropriate genetic material under predicted agro-ecological conditions associated with climate change. We studied the structure and spatial scope of seed systems of 20 communities in four transects across an altitudinal gradient from 10-2,980 m above sea level in five states of eastern Mexico. Results indicate that 90% of all of the seed lots are obtained within 10 km of a community and 87% within an altitudinal range of ±50 m but with variation across four agro-climate environments: wet lowland, dry lowland, wet upper midlatitude, and highlands. Climate models suggest a drying and warming trend for the entire study area during the main maize season, leading to substantial shifts in the spatial distribution patterns of agro-climate environments. For all communities except those in the highlands, predicted future maize environments already are represented within the 10-km radial zones, indicating that in the future farmers will have easy access to adapted planting material. Farmers in the highlands are the most vulnerable and probably will need to acquire seed from outside their traditional geographical ranges. This change in seed sources probably will entail important information costs and the development of new seed and associated social networks, including improved linkages between traditional and formal seed systems and more effective and efficient seed-supply chains. The study has implications for analogous areas elsewhere in Mexico and around the world.}, }
@article {pmid21817028, year = {2011}, author = {Reardon, S}, title = {Science education. Climate change sparks battles in classroom.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {333}, number = {6043}, pages = {688-689}, doi = {10.1126/science.333.6043.688}, pmid = {21817028}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid21816703, year = {2011}, author = {Huang, C and Barnett, AG and Wang, X and Vaneckova, P and FitzGerald, G and Tong, S}, title = {Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios: a systematic review.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {12}, pages = {1681-1690}, pmid = {21816703}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Climate Change/*mortality ; Forecasting/*methods ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Research ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios.<br><br>DATA SOURCES AND EXTRACTION: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010.<br><br>DATA SYNTHESIS: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature-mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.}, }
@article {pmid21814274, year = {2011}, author = {Montzka, SA and Dlugokencky, EJ and Butler, JH}, title = {Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {476}, number = {7358}, pages = {43-50}, pmid = {21814274}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide ; Gases/*analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Human Activities ; Methane/*analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Earth's climate is warming as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from fossil fuel combustion. Anthropogenic emissions of non-CO(2) greenhouse gases, such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting substances (largely from sources other than fossil fuels), also contribute significantly to warming. Some non-CO(2) greenhouse gases have much shorter lifetimes than CO(2), so reducing their emissions offers an additional opportunity to lessen future climate change. Although it is clear that sustainably reducing the warming influence of greenhouse gases will be possible only with substantial cuts in emissions of CO(2), reducing non-CO(2) greenhouse gas emissions would be a relatively quick way of contributing to this goal.}, }
@article {pmid21812302, year = {2011}, author = {Yuan, HY and Zhang, XY and Xu, HJ and Yang, XG}, title = {[Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. V. Change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in Ningxia].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {1247-1254}, pmid = {21812302}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Rain ; Solanum tuberosum/growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Triticum/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1961-2009 weather data from 21 meteorological stations in Ningxia, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal variation trend of regional agricultural climate resources in Ningxia, Northwest China. In 1961-2009, the air temperature in Ningxia increased gradually from south to north, with the mean annual temperature increased by 0.4 degrees C x (10 a)(-1) , while the annual precipitation in most regions decreased gradually, with a decrement 4.26 mm x (10 a)(-1). Both the frost-free period and the duration of crop growth season prolonged. The regions with > or = 10 degrees C accumulated temperature being > or = 3200 degrees C x d extended southwardly, and thereby, the regions adaptive for planting mid and late rice increased. In 2001-2009, most regions were adaptive for plating winter wheat, and the whole Ningxia was adaptive for plating spring wheat. In the southern mountain regions, the region with mean temperature in July being < or = 20 degrees C decreased gradually, and accordingly, the regions adaptive for planting potato decreased.}, }
@article {pmid21812206, year = {2010}, author = {Mutunga, C and Hardee, K}, title = {Population and reproductive health in National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) for climate change in Africa.}, journal = {African journal of reproductive health}, volume = {14}, number = {4 Spec no.}, pages = {127-139}, pmid = {21812206}, issn = {1118-4841}, mesh = {Africa ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; *Health Policy ; Human Rights ; Humans ; *Population Dynamics ; Reproductive Health Services/*organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {This paper reviews 44 National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) to assess the NAPA process and identify the range of interventions included in countries' priority adaptation actions and highlight how population issues and reproductive health/family planning (RH/FP) are addressed as part of the adaptation agenda. A majority of the 44 NAPAs identify rapid population growth as a key component of vulnerability to climate change impacts. However, few chose to prioritise NAPA funds for family planning/reproductive health programmes. The paper emphasizes the need to translate the recognition of population pressure as a factor related to countries' ability to adapt to climate change into relevant project activities. Such projects should include access to RH/FP, in addition to other strategies such as girls' education and women's empowerment that lead to lower fertility. Attention to population and integrated strategies should be central and aligned to longer-term national adaptation plans and strategies.}, }
@article {pmid21809786, year = {2011}, author = {Barua, M and Root-Bernstein, M and Ladle, RJ and Jepson, P}, title = {Defining flagship uses is critical for flagship selection: a critique of the IUCN climate change flagship fleet.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {40}, number = {4}, pages = {431-435}, pmid = {21809786}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Geography ; }, }
@article {pmid21808501, year = {2011}, author = {Pandve, HT and Raut, A}, title = {Assessment of awareness regarding climate change and its health hazards among the medical students.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {42-45}, pmid = {21808501}, issn = {1998-3670}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has emerged as one of the most devastating environmental threat and there is overwhelming evidence of wide range of implications for human health. To mitigate this, well-prepared medical man power is required.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were (1) to assess the awareness regarding climate change and its health hazards among the medical students and (2) to recommend the awareness campaigns regarding climate change and its health hazards for students based on the results.<br><br>SETTINGS AND DESIGN: This observational study was conducted at the Medical College in Pune city.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: Medical students from all years of M.B.B.S. (Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery) who had given the written consent were included in this study. A self-administered, pre-tested, questionnaire was used. Responses were evaluated.<br><br>STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: Proportions, percentage, and Chi-square test.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 250 medical students were included in this study. In all, 246 (98.40%) students commented that global climate is changing, while 245 (98%) students opined that human activities are contributing to climate change. The commonest source of information about climate change was newspaper and magazines (78.20%). Majority commented that deforestation and industrial and vehicular pollution contribute most to climate change. According to 47.50% of the students, health-related issues are priority for climate change prevention strategy. According to 65.10% students, direct physical hazards of extreme climatic events are most important health-related impact of climate change, followed by natural disaster-related health hazards (43.50%), waterborne diseases (27.60%), vector-borne diseases (17.60%), and malnutrition (10%). There was statistically significant difference found between year of MBBS of the students and the awareness regarding United Nations Federation on Climate Change, Kyoto protocol (&#x3c7;(2) = 7.85, P = 0.02), and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (&#x3c7;(2) = 12.77, P = 0.002). A significant difference was found between the awareness about health impact of climate change at different places (&#x3c7;(2) = 11.25, P = 0.001).<br><br>CONCLUSION: Students had awareness regarding health hazards of the climate change, but improvement for mitigation is required. It is suggested that a large nation-wide awareness survey regarding climate change and its health hazards is necessary to determine the preparedness of medical students and also to suggest any changes in the current curriculum.}, }
@article {pmid21805379, year = {2012}, author = {Ma, S and Churkina, G and Trusilova, K}, title = {Investigating the impact of climate change on crop phenological events in Europe with a phenology model.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {749-763}, pmid = {21805379}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Brassica rapa/growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Europe ; Hordeum/growth &amp; development ; *Models, Theoretical ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development ; Triticum/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Predicting regional and global carbon and water dynamics requires a realistic representation of vegetation phenology. Vegetation models including cropland models exist (e.g. LPJmL, Daycent, SIBcrop, ORCHIDEE-STICS, PIXGRO) but they have various limitations in predicting cropland phenological events and their responses to climate change. Here, we investigate how leaf onset and offset days of major European croplands responded to changes in climate from 1971 to 2000 using a newly developed phenological model, which solely relies on climate data. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data measured with eddy covariance technique at seven sites in Europe were used to adjust model parameters for wheat, barley, and rapeseed. Observational data from the International Phenology Gardens were used to corroborate modeled phenological responses to changes in climate. Enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and a crop calendar were explored as alternative predictors of leaf onset and harvest days, respectively, over a large spatial scale. In each spatial model simulation, we assumed that all European croplands were covered by only one crop type. Given this assumption, the model estimated that the leaf onset days for wheat, barley, and rapeseed in Germany advanced by 1.6, 3.4, and 3.4 days per decade, respectively, during 1961-2000. The majority of European croplands (71.4%) had an advanced mean leaf onset day for wheat, barley, and rapeseed (7.0% significant), whereas 28.6% of European croplands had a delayed leaf onset day (0.9% significant) during 1971-2000. The trend of advanced onset days estimated by the model is similar to observations from the International Phenology Gardens in Europe. The developed phenological model can be integrated into a large-scale ecosystem model to simulate the dynamics of phenological events at different temporal and spatial scales. Crop calendars and enhanced vegetation index have substantial uncertainties in predicting phenological events of croplands. Caution should be exercised when using these data.}, }
@article {pmid21805230, year = {2012}, author = {Chen, X and Xu, L}, title = {Phenological responses of Ulmus pumila (Siberian Elm) to climate change in the temperate zone of China.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {695-706}, pmid = {21805230}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {China ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Plant Leaves/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Ulmus/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Using Ulmus pumila (Siberian Elm) leaf unfolding and leaf fall phenological data from 46 stations in the temperate zone of China for the period 1986-2005, we detected linear trends in both start and end dates and length of the growing season. Moreover, we defined the optimum length period during which daily mean temperature affects the growing season start and end dates most markedly at each station in order to more precisely and rationally identify responses of the growing season to temperature. On average, the growing season start date advanced significantly at a rate of -4.0 days per decade, whereas the growing season end date was delayed significantly at a rate of 2.2 days per decade and the growing season length was prolonged significantly at a rate of 6.5 days per decade across the temperate zone of China. Thus, the growing season extension was induced mainly by the advancement of the start date. At individual stations, linear trends of the start date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature during the optimum length period, namely, the quicker the spring temperature increased at a station, the quicker the start date advanced. With respect to growing season response to interannual temperature variation, a 1°C increase in spring temperature during the optimum length period may induce an advancement of 2.8 days in the start date of the growing season, whereas a 1°C increase in autumn temperature during the optimum length period may cause a delay of 2.1 days in the end date of the growing season, and a 1°C increase in annual mean temperature may result in a lengthening of the growing season of 9 days across the temperate zone of China. Therefore, the response of the start date to temperature is more sensitive than the response of the end date. At individual stations, the sensitivity of growing season response to temperature depends obviously on local thermal conditions, namely, either the negative response of the start date or the positive response of the end date and growing season length to temperature was stronger at warmer locations than at colder locations. Thus, future regional climate warming may enhance the sensitivity of plant phenological response to temperature, especially in colder regions.}, }
@article {pmid21802764, year = {2011}, author = {McCauley, SJ and Mabry, KE}, title = {Climate change, body size, and phenotype dependent dispersal.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {554-5; author reply 555-6}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2011.06.017}, pmid = {21802764}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*physiology ; Animals ; Body Size/*physiology ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; Energy Metabolism/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid21796962, year = {2011}, author = {Saad-Hussein, A and El-Mofty, HM and Hassanien, MA}, title = {Climate change and predicted trend of fungal keratitis in Egypt.}, journal = {Eastern Mediterranean health journal = La revue de sante de la Mediterranee orientale = al-Majallah al-sihhiyah li-sharq al-mutawassit}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {468-473}, pmid = {21796962}, issn = {1020-3397}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Egypt/epidemiology ; Eye Infections, Fungal/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Humidity ; Keratitis/*epidemiology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Rising rates of invasive fungal infections may be linked to global climate change. A study was made of the trend of ophthalmic fungal corneal keratitis in the greater Cairo area of Egypt and its association with climate records during the same period. Data on diagnosed cases of fungal keratitis were collected from records of ophthalmic departments of Cairo University hospital and atmospheric temperature and humidity for the greater Cairo area were obtained from online records. Statistical analysis showed a significant increase in the relative frequency of keratomycosis during 1997-2007. The rise correlated significantly with rises n min,mum temperature and the maximum atmospheric humidity in the greater Cairo area over the same period (after exclusion of the effect of the maximum atmos pheric temperature). The predicted increase in keratomycosis up to the year 2030 corresponds to predicted increases in CO2 emissions and surface temperature from climate change models for Egypt.}, }
@article {pmid21796885, year = {2011}, author = {Gavin, NT and Leonard-Milsom, L and Montgomery, J}, title = {Climate change, flooding and the media in Britain.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {422-438}, doi = {10.1177/0963662509353377}, pmid = {21796885}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Floods/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; *Mass Media ; United Kingdom ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The weather is a preoccupation of the British public, and flooding has become a salient feature of their experience. Climate science also has important things to say about the prevalence, distribution and dangers of rainfall and flooding, and what we should expect from global warming. This paper looks at British press coverage of flooding, and at the connections made between this theme and climate change. It aims to expose longitudinal patterning, and assess how common the connection is. From here the analysis moves to specific cases of high profile flooding events for a detailed exploration of the tone and tenor, and discursive contours of reports. The results suggest the media's contribution to genuine debate is mixed, that the connection between common forms of reportage and our scientific understanding of the phenomena is often tenuous. The paper explores the implications for the way the politics of climate change plays out.}, }
@article {pmid21796181, year = {2011}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Climate-change politics: The sceptic meets his match.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {475}, number = {7357}, pages = {440-441}, doi = {10.1038/475440a}, pmid = {21796181}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Congresses as Topic ; Freedom ; *Global Warming ; Health Facilities, Proprietary/economics ; *Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid21792220, year = {2011}, author = {Brakefield, PM and de Jong, PW}, title = {A steep cline in ladybird melanism has decayed over 25 years: a genetic response to climate change?.}, journal = {Heredity}, volume = {107}, number = {6}, pages = {574-578}, pmid = {21792220}, issn = {1365-2540}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Coleoptera/*genetics/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Melanins/*metabolism ; Netherlands ; *Pigmentation ; Population Dynamics ; Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {A cline in the frequency of melanic morphs of the two-spot ladybird, Adalia bipunctata, was first surveyed in 1980 along a transect extending inland from the coast in the Netherlands. At that time, the frequency of melanics increased over some 40 km from 10% near the coast to nearly 60% inland. Additional surveys made in 1991 and 1995 demonstrated some progressive change in cline shape. New samples from 1998 and 2004 confirm these dynamics, and show that over a period of about 50 generations for the beetle, the cline had decayed rapidly to yield rather uniform frequencies of melanic morphs at around 20% along the whole transect by 2004. Climate data and evidence for thermal melanism in this species support our contention that these dynamics reflect a dramatic example of a rapid genetic response within populations to climate change and local selection.}, }
@article {pmid21792168, year = {2012}, author = {Gryka, A and Broom, J and Rolland, C}, title = {Global warming: is weight loss a solution?.}, journal = {International journal of obesity (2005)}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {474-476}, doi = {10.1038/ijo.2011.151}, pmid = {21792168}, issn = {1476-5497}, mesh = {Basal Metabolism ; Body Composition ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/complications/*metabolism ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Male ; Obesity/*metabolism ; *Weight Loss ; }, abstract = {The current climate change has been most likely caused by the increased greenhouse gas emissions. We have looked at the major greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO(2)), and estimated the reduction in the CO(2) emissions that would occur with the theoretical global weight loss. The calculations were based on our previous weight loss study, investigating the effects of a low-carbohydrate diet on body weight, body composition and resting metabolic rate of obese volunteers with type 2 diabetes. At 6 months, we observed decreases in weight, fat mass, fat free mass and CO(2) production. We estimated that a 10 kg weight loss of all obese and overweight people would result in a decrease of 49.560 Mt of CO(2) per year, which would equal to 0.2% of the CO(2) emitted globally in 2007. This reduction could help meet the CO(2) emission reduction targets and unquestionably would be of a great benefit to the global health.}, }
@article {pmid21785890, year = {2011}, author = {Harper, SL and Edge, VL and Schuster-Wallace, CJ and Berke, O and McEwen, SA}, title = {Weather, water quality and infectious gastrointestinal illness in two Inuit communities in Nunatsiavut, Canada: potential implications for climate change.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {93-108}, pmid = {21785890}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Canada/epidemiology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Female ; Gastrointestinal Diseases/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Infant ; *Inuit ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Poisson Distribution ; *Water Microbiology ; *Weather ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to cause changes in precipitation quantity, intensity, frequency and duration, which will subsequently alter environmental conditions and might increase the risk of waterborne disease. The objective of this study was to describe the seasonality of and explore associations between weather, water quality and occurrence of infectious gastrointestinal illnesses (IGI) in two communities in Nunatsiavut, Canada. Weather data were obtained from meteorological stations in Nain (2005-2008) and Rigolet (2008). Free-chlorine residual levels in drinking water were extracted from municipal records (2005-2008). Raw surface water was tested weekly for total coliform and E. coli counts. Daily counts of IGI-related clinic visits were obtained from health clinic registries (2005-2008). Analysis of weather and health variables included seasonal-trend decomposition procedures based on Loess. Multivariable zero-inflated Poisson regression was used to examine potential associations between weather events (considering 0-4 week lag periods) and IGI-related clinic visits. In Nain, water volume input (rainfall + snowmelt) peaked in spring and summer and was positively associated with levels of raw water bacteriological variables. The number of IGI-related clinic visits peaked in the summer and fall months. Significant positive associations were observed between high levels of water volume input 2 and 4 weeks prior, and IGI-related clinic visits (P < 0.05). This study is the first to systematically gather, analyse and compare baseline data on weather, water quality and health in Nunatsiavut, and illustrates the need for high quality temporal baseline information to allow for detection of future impacts of climate change on regional Inuit human and environmental health.}, }
@article {pmid21784809, year = {2011}, author = {Mughini Gras, L}, title = {Climate change as a scapegoat for veterinary public health problems.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {169}, number = {4}, pages = {106}, doi = {10.1136/vr.d4611}, pmid = {21784809}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; Humans ; Research/*economics ; }, }
@article {pmid21782274, year = {2011}, author = {Bickford, DP and Sheridan, JA and Howard, SD}, title = {Climate change responses: forgetting frogs, ferns and flies?.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {553-4; author reply 555-6}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2011.06.016}, pmid = {21782274}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*physiology ; Animals ; Body Size/*physiology ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; Energy Metabolism/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid21778392, year = {2011}, author = {Pandolfi, JM and Connolly, SR and Marshall, DJ and Cohen, AL}, title = {Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {333}, number = {6041}, pages = {418-422}, doi = {10.1126/science.1204794}, pmid = {21778392}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa/physiology ; Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; Calcification, Physiologic ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Many physiological responses in present-day coral reefs to climate change are interpreted as consistent with the imminent disappearance of modern reefs globally because of annual mass bleaching events, carbonate dissolution, and insufficient time for substantial evolutionary responses. Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest. Reducing uncertainty in projecting coral reef futures requires improved understanding of past responses to rapid climate change; physiological responses to interacting factors, such as temperature, acidification, and nutrients; and the costs and constraints imposed by acclimation and adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid21778361, year = {2011}, author = {Solomon, S and Daniel, JS and Neely, RR and Vernier, JP and Dutton, EG and Thomason, LW}, title = {The persistently variable "background" stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {333}, number = {6044}, pages = {866-870}, doi = {10.1126/science.1206027}, pmid = {21778361}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Recent measurements demonstrate that the "background" stratospheric aerosol layer is persistently variable rather than constant, even in the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Several independent data sets show that stratospheric aerosols have increased in abundance since 2000. Near-global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosol changes over this period of about -0.1 watt per square meter, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred. Observations from earlier periods are limited but suggest an additional negative radiative forcing of about -0.1 watt per square meter from 1960 to 1990. Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase.}, }
@article {pmid21774312, year = {2011}, author = {Han, Y and Hou, XY}, title = {[Perceptions and adaptation strategies of herders in desert steppe of Inner Mongolia to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {913-922}, pmid = {21774312}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Desert Climate ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Livestock/*growth &amp; development ; Perception/physiology ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Desert steppe is very vulnerable to climate change. The herders caring for their livestock in such a natural environment have to face the challenges of rapid climate change. In this paper, a household-level questionnaire was conducted in the Suniteyou District of Inner Mongolia, China, aimed to analyze the herders' perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change, extreme climate events in particular. In this Steppe where precipitation is rare and meteorological disasters are frequent, drought is the main extreme climate event with the broadest affecting area, the highest affecting degree, and the greatest frequency. The sensitivity of the herders to drought is far higher than that to other extreme climate events, and also, the perceptions to drought induce the herders having deep perceptions to the extreme climate events such as strong wing, dust storm, and heavy snow. Relative to the perceptions to long-term climate change, the perceptions to short-term climate change are more deep and precise. The herders can estimate the long-term climate change trend according to their perceptions to the latest 10 years climate change. They attribute the poor livestock health and the reduced forage yield greatly to climate change. Yet, the herders are inexperienced in implementing efficient adaptation strategies. Generally, their adaptation measures are quite simplex and rather passive.}, }
@article {pmid21774311, year = {2011}, author = {Liu, ZJ and Yang, XG and Wang, WF}, title = {[Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. IV. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in sub-humid warm-temperate irrigated wheat-maize agricultural area of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {905-912}, pmid = {21774311}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; Agriculture/methods ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humidity ; Plant Transpiration ; Temperature ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1961-2007 observation data from 66 meteorological stations in the sub-humid and warm-temperate irrigated wheat-maize agricultural area of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics of agro-climate resources for chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in the area in 1961-1980 and 1981-2007. The analyzed items included the length of temperature-defined growth season and the active accumulative temperature, sunshine hours, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and aridity index during the temperature-defined growth season. With climate warming, the length of temperature-defined growth season of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in the area in 1981-2007 extended by 7. 4 d and 6. 9 d, and the > or = 0 degrees C and > or = 10 degrees C accumulative temperature increased at a rate of 4.0-137.0 and 1.0-142.0 degrees C d (10 a)(-1), respectively, compared with those in 1961-1980. The sunshine hours during the temperature-defined growth season of the crops decreased markedly; and the precipitation during the temperature-defined growing season decreased in most parts of the area, being obvious in Hebei and north Shandong Province, but increased in north Anhui and southeast Henan Province. In most parts of the area, the reference evapotranspiration of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops during their temperature-defined growth season decreased, and the aridity index increased.}, }
@article {pmid21774310, year = {2011}, author = {Zhao, DS and Wu, SH and Yin, YH}, title = {[Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {897-904}, pmid = {21774310}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plant Development ; Plants/classification ; }, abstract = {Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) for climate change study, and according to the features of natural environment in China, the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted, and the parameters were modified. With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period, the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. In 1961-1990, the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C a(-1); in 1961-2080, the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend, with an accelerated decreasing rate. Under the condition of slight precipitation change, the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP. Spatially, the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland, and this pattern would have less variation under climate change. In eastern China with higher NPP, especially in Northeast China, east of North China, and Loess Plateau, the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend; while in western China with lower NPP, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin, the NPP would be increased. With the intensive climate change, such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.}, }
@article {pmid21774108, year = {2011}, author = {}, title = {Proceedings of the meeting entitled: Effect of climate change on the environment and hominins of the Upper Jordan Valley between ca. 800 ka and 700 ka ago as a basis for prediction of future scenarios. May 2009, Jerusalem, Israel.}, journal = {Journal of human evolution}, volume = {60}, number = {4}, pages = {319-522}, pmid = {21774108}, issn = {1095-8606}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; *Hominidae ; *Paleontology ; }, }
@article {pmid21766119, year = {2011}, author = {Mitchell, E and Frisbie, S and Sarkar, B}, title = {Exposure to multiple metals from groundwater-a global crisis: geology, climate change, health effects, testing, and mitigation.}, journal = {Metallomics : integrated biometal science}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {874-908}, doi = {10.1039/c1mt00052g}, pmid = {21766119}, issn = {1756-591X}, mesh = {Animals ; Arsenic/analysis ; Arsenic Poisoning/etiology ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Global Health ; *Groundwater ; Heavy Metal Poisoning ; Humans ; Metals, Heavy/*analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis/poisoning ; }, abstract = {This paper presents an overview of the global extent of naturally occurring toxic metals in groundwater. Adverse health effects attributed to the toxic metals most commonly found in groundwater are reviewed, as well as chemical, biochemical, and physiological interactions between these metals. Synergistic and antagonistic effects that have been reported between the toxic metals found in groundwater and the dietary trace elements are highlighted, and common behavioural, cultural, and dietary practices that are likely to significantly modify health risks due to use of metal-contaminated groundwater are reviewed. Methods for analytical testing of samples containing multiple metals are discussed, with special attention to analytical interferences between metals and reagents. An overview is presented of approaches to providing safe water when groundwater contains multiple metallic toxins.}, }
@article {pmid21750695, year = {2011}, author = {Redman, RS and Kim, YO and Woodward, CJ and Greer, C and Espino, L and Doty, SL and Rodriguez, RJ}, title = {Increased fitness of rice plants to abiotic stress via habitat adapted symbiosis: a strategy for mitigating impacts of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {7}, pages = {e14823}, pmid = {21750695}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/drug effects/*physiology ; Biomass ; Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Fungi/physiology ; Fusarium/physiology ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Oryza/metabolism/microbiology/*physiology ; Reactive Nitrogen Species/metabolism ; Salinity ; Seedlings/metabolism/microbiology/physiology ; Sodium Chloride/pharmacology ; Symbiosis/drug effects/*physiology ; Water/pharmacology ; }, abstract = {Climate change and catastrophic events have contributed to rice shortages in several regions due to decreased water availability and soil salinization. Although not adapted to salt or drought stress, two commercial rice varieties achieved tolerance to these stresses by colonizing them with Class 2 fungal endophytes isolated from plants growing across moisture and salinity gradients.Plant growth and development, water usage, ROS sensitivity and osmolytes were measured with and without stress under controlled conditions.The endophytes conferred salt, drought and cold tolerance to growth chamber and greenhouse grown plants. Endophytes reduced water consumption by 20-30% and increased growth rate, reproductive yield, and biomass of greenhouse grown plants. In the absence of stress, there was no apparent cost of the endophytes to plants, however, endophyte colonization decreased from 100% at planting to 65% compared to greenhouse plants grown under continual stress (maintained 100% colonization).These findings indicate that rice plants can exhibit enhanced stress tolerance via symbiosis with Class 2 endophytes, and suggest that symbiotic technology may be useful in mitigating impacts of climate change on other crops and expanding agricultural production onto marginal lands.}, }
@article {pmid21750595, year = {2011}, author = {Phipps, R and Randerson, R and Blashki, G}, title = {The climate change challenge for general practice in New Zealand.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {124}, number = {1333}, pages = {47-54}, pmid = {21750595}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends ; General Practice/*trends ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Health Education/organization &amp; administration ; Health Promotion/*trends ; Humans ; Leadership ; New Zealand ; *Physician's Role ; Practice Patterns, Physicians'/*trends ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the greatest public health challenges of our time. Despite some inherent uncertainties in making predictions about climate change, there is wide scientific consensus that global warming is occurring; that it is largely due to manmade greenhouse gas emissions; and that it will have substantial health implications for the future. The predicted health impacts of climate change are now clearer for New Zealand, and general practitioners can take action to mitigate these impacts and adapt to the future environment. Actions required involve a combination of 'top-down' and 'ground-up' approaches; effective leadership and policy from our health institutions and, importantly, individual practice initiatives that transform these goals into practical outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid21746924, year = {2011}, author = {Maclean, IM and Wilson, RJ}, title = {Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {30}, pages = {12337-12342}, pmid = {21746924}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Models, Biological ; Phylogeny ; Population Density ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid21746758, year = {2011}, author = {Myhre, O and Reistad, T and Longva, KS}, title = {Global warming contributions from alternative approaches to waste management in the Norwegian Armed Forces.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {29}, number = {10}, pages = {1098-1107}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X11413802}, pmid = {21746758}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Incineration/methods/standards ; Military Personnel ; Norway ; Recycling/methods/standards ; Waste Management/*methods/standards ; }, abstract = {Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions emanating from waste management practices in five Norwegian military camps were assessed. The GHG emission accounting practices examined included fuel provision upstream of a material recovery facility (MRF), operational activities at the MRF, and downstream processes. The latter means recycling of waste compared to primary production using virgin materials, or the incineration of waste with energy recovery compared to heating based on the average energy mix for both EU and Norway. The results show that the operational activities at the MRF cause more GHG emissions than the provision of fuel upstream of the MRF (116 vs. 16-21 tonnes CO2-eq., respectively). Furthermore, the downstream activities provided far greater avoidance of GHG emissions than the load caused by upstream activities and the activities at the MRF. Recycling proves to be beneficial over incineration of waste when compared to the EU energy mix (savings of--257 tonnes CO2-eq.), and the advantage is even larger when compared to the average energy mix for Norway (savings of--779 tonnes CO2-eq.). In conclusion, the results show that sorting of mixed waste at military camp collection sites followed by recycling of the separated fractions at MRF would result in significant avoidance of GHG emissions, compared to the current practice of incineration with energy recovery of the mixed waste.}, }
@article {pmid21740004, year = {2011}, author = {Outridge, PM and Sanei, H and Stern, GA and Goodsite, M and Hamilton, PB and Carrie, J and Goodarzi, F and Macdonald, RW}, title = {Comment on Climate change and mercury accumulation in Canadian High and Subarctic lakes.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {45}, number = {15}, pages = {6703-4; author reply 6705-6}, doi = {10.1021/es2014709}, pmid = {21740004}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Mercury/*analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid21739843, year = {2011}, author = {Sisterhen, L}, title = {Global climate change and our health.}, journal = {The Journal of the Arkansas Medical Society}, volume = {107}, number = {10}, pages = {194}, pmid = {21739843}, issn = {0004-1858}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid21738573, year = {2011}, author = {Reed, TE and Schindler, DE and Hague, MJ and Patterson, DA and Meir, E and Waples, RS and Hinch, SG}, title = {Time to evolve? Potential evolutionary responses of fraser river sockeye salmon to climate change and effects on persistence.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {e20380}, pmid = {21738573}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Salmon/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ∼10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid21737745, year = {2011}, author = {Barrett, S}, title = {Avoiding disastrous climate change is possible but not inevitable.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {29}, pages = {11733-11734}, pmid = {21737745}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Communication ; *Game Theory ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid21737120, year = {2011}, author = {Mahbub, P and Goonetilleke, A and Ayoko, GA and Egodawatta, P}, title = {Effects of climate change on the wash-off of volatile organic compounds from urban roads.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {409}, number = {19}, pages = {3934-3942}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.06.032}, pmid = {21737120}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Principal Component Analysis ; *Rain ; Volatile Organic Compounds/*analysis ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; }, abstract = {The predicted changes in rainfall characteristics due to climate change could adversely affect stormwater quality in highly urbanised coastal areas throughout the world. This in turn will exert a significant influence on the discharge of pollutants to estuarine and marine waters. Hence, an in-depth analysis of the effects of such changes on the wash-off of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from urban roads in the Gold Coast region in Australia was undertaken. The rainfall characteristics were simulated using a rainfall simulator. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multicriteria Decision tools such as PROMETHEE and GAIA were employed to understand the VOC wash-off under climate change. It was found that low, low to moderate and high rain events due to climate change will affect the wash-off of toluene, ethylbenzene, meta-xylene, para-xylene and ortho-xylene from urban roads in Gold Coast. Total organic carbon (TOC) was identified as predominant carrier of toluene, meta-xylene and para-xylene in <1 μm to 150 μm fractions and for ethylbenzene in 150 μm to >300 μm fractions under such dominant rain events due to climate change. However, ortho-xylene did not show such affinity towards either TOC or TSS (total suspended solids) under the simulated climatic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid21735203, year = {2011}, author = {van Geffen, KG and Berg, MP and Aerts, R}, title = {Potential macro-detritivore range expansion into the subarctic stimulates litter decomposition: a new positive feedback mechanism to climate change?.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {167}, number = {4}, pages = {1163-1175}, pmid = {21735203}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Alnus/*metabolism ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Arthropods/*metabolism/physiology ; Betula/*metabolism ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; *Ecosystem ; Herbivory ; Oligochaeta/*metabolism/physiology ; Plant Leaves/metabolism ; Species Specificity ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {As a result of low decomposition rates, high-latitude ecosystems store large amounts of carbon. Litter decomposition in these ecosystems is constrained by harsh abiotic conditions, but also by the absence of macro-detritivores. We have studied the potential effects of their climate change-driven northward range expansion on the decomposition of two contrasting subarctic litter types. Litter of Alnus incana and Betula pubescens was incubated in microcosms together with monocultures and all possible combinations of three functionally different macro-detritivores (the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus, isopod Oniscus asellus, and millipede Julus scandinavius). Our results show that these macro-detritivores stimulated decomposition, especially of the high-quality A. incana litter and that the macro-detritivores tested differed in their decomposition-stimulating effects, with earthworms having the largest influence. Decomposition processes increased with increasing number of macro-detritivore species, and positive net diveristy effects occurred in several macro-detritivore treatments. However, after correction for macro-detritivore biomass, all interspecific differences in macro-detritivore effects, as well as the positive effects of species number on subarctic litter decomposition disappeared. The net diversity effects also appeared to be driven by variation in biomass, with a possible exception of net diversity effects in mass loss. Based on these results, we conclude that the expected climate change-induced range expansion of macro-detritivores into subarctic regions is likely to result in accelerated decomposition rates. Our results also indicate that the magnitude of macro-detritivore effects on subarctic decomposition will mainly depend on macro-detritivore biomass, rather than on macro-detritivore species number or identity.}, }
@article {pmid21730180, year = {2011}, author = {Kaufmann, RK and Kauppi, H and Mann, ML and Stock, JH}, title = {Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {29}, pages = {11790-11793}, pmid = {21730180}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Aerosols/analysis ; Air Pollutants/*analysis/chemistry ; Climate Change/*history/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Models, Statistical ; Steam/analysis ; Sunlight ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.}, }
@article {pmid21730154, year = {2011}, author = {Tavoni, A and Dannenberg, A and Kallis, G and Löschel, A}, title = {Inequality, communication, and the avoidance of disastrous climate change in a public goods game.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {29}, pages = {11825-11829}, pmid = {21730154}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Communication ; *Game Theory ; Games, Experimental ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {International efforts to provide global public goods often face the challenges of coordinating national contributions and distributing costs equitably in the face of uncertainty, inequality, and free-riding incentives. In an experimental setting, we distribute endowments unequally among a group of people who can reach a fixed target sum through successive money contributions, knowing that if they fail, they will lose all their remaining money with 50% probability. In some treatments, we give players the option to communicate intended contributions. We find that inequality reduces the prospects of reaching the target but that communication increases success dramatically. Successful groups tend to eliminate inequality over the course of the game, with rich players signaling willingness to redistribute early on. Our results suggest that coordination-promoting institutions and early redistribution from richer to poorer nations are both decisive for the avoidance of global calamities, such as disruptive climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21727080, year = {2011}, author = {Offord, CA}, title = {Pushed to the limit: consequences of climate change for the Araucariaceae: a relictual rain forest family.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {108}, number = {2}, pages = {347-357}, pmid = {21727080}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development ; Rain ; Tracheophyta/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Under predicted climate change scenarios, increased temperatures are likely to predispose trees to leaf and other tissue damage, resulting in plant death and contraction of already narrow distribution ranges in many relictual species. The effects of predicted upward temperatures may be further exacerbated by changes in rainfall patterns and damage caused by frosts on trees that have been insufficiently cold-hardened. The Araucariaceae is a relictual family and the seven species found in Australia have limited natural distributions characterized by low frost intensity and frequency, and warm summer temperatures. The temperature limits for these species were determined in order to help understand how such species will fare in a changing climate.<br><br>METHODS: Experiments were conducted using samples from representative trees of the Araucariaceae species occurring in Australia, Agathis (A. atropurpurea, A. microstachya and A. robusta), Arauacaria (A. bidwilli, A. cunninghamii and A. heterophylla) and Wollemia nobilis. Samples were collected from plants grown in a common garden environment. Lower and higher temperature limits were determined by subjecting detached winter-hardened leaves to temperatures from 0 to -17 &#xb0;C and summer-exposed leaves to 25 to 63 &#xb0;C, then measuring the efficiency of photosystem II (F(v)/F(m)) and visually rating leaf damage. The exotherm, a sharp rise in temperature indicating the point of ice nucleation within the cells of the leaf, was measured on detached leaves of winter-hardened and summer temperature-exposed leaves.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Lower temperature limits (indicated by FT(50), the temperature at which PSII efficiency is 50 %, and LT(50) the temperature at which 50 % visual leaf damage occurred) were approx. -5&#xb7;5 to -7&#xb7;5 &#xb0;C for A. atropurpurea, A. microstachya and A. heterophylla, approx. -7 to -9 &#xb0;C for A. robusta, A. bidwillii and A. cunninghamii, and -10&#xb7;5 to -11 &#xb0;C for W. nobilis. High temperature damage began at 47&#xb7;5 &#xb0;C for W. nobilis, and occurred in the range 48&#xb7;5-52 &#xb0;C for A. bidwillii and A. cunninghamii, and in the range 50&#xb7;5-53&#xb7;5 &#xb0;C for A. robusta, A. microstachya and A. heterophylla. Winter-hardened leaves had ice nucleation temperatures of -5&#xb7;5 &#xb0;C or lower, with W. nobilis the lowest at -6&#xb7;8 &#xb0;C. All species had significantly higher ice nucleation temperatures in summer, with A. atropurpurea and A. heterophylla forming ice in the leaf at temperatures >3 &#xb0;C higher in summer than in winter. Wollemia nobilis had lower FT(50) and LT(50) values than its ice nucleation temperature, indicating that the species has a degree of ice tolerance.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: While lower temperature limits in the Australian Araucariaceae are generally unlikely to affect their survival in wild populations during normal winters, unseasonal frosts may have devastating effects on tree survival. Extreme high temperatures are not common in the areas of natural occurrence, but upward temperature shifts, in combination with localized radiant heating, may increase the heat experienced within a canopy by at least 10 &#xb0;C and impact on tree survival, and may contribute to range contraction. Heat stress may explain why many landscape plantings of W. nobilis have failed in hotter areas of Australia.}, }
@article {pmid21724617, year = {2011}, author = {Kingsolver, JG and Woods, HA and Buckley, LB and Potter, KA and MacLean, HJ and Higgins, JK}, title = {Complex life cycles and the responses of insects to climate change.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {51}, number = {5}, pages = {719-732}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icr015}, pmid = {21724617}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Altitude ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Body Temperature Regulation ; Butterflies/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Life Cycle Stages/*physiology ; Manduca/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Microclimate ; Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; Zygote ; }, abstract = {Many organisms have complex life cycles with distinct life stages that experience different environmental conditions. How does the complexity of life cycles affect the ecological and evolutionary responses of organisms to climate change? We address this question by exploring several recent case studies and synthetic analyses of insects. First, different life stages may inhabit different microhabitats, and may differ in their thermal sensitivities and other traits that are important for responses to climate. For example, the life stages of Manduca experience different patterns of thermal and hydric variability, and differ in tolerance to high temperatures. Second, life stages may differ in their mechanisms for adaptation to local climatic conditions. For example, in Colias, larvae in different geographic populations and species adapt to local climate via differences in optimal and maximal temperatures for feeding and growth, whereas adults adapt via differences in melanin of the wings and in other morphological traits. Third, we extend a recent analysis of the temperature-dependence of insect population growth to demonstrate how changes in temperature can differently impact juvenile survival and adult reproduction. In both temperate and tropical regions, high rates of adult reproduction in a given environment may not be realized if occasional, high temperatures prevent survival to maturity. This suggests that considering the differing responses of multiple life stages is essential to understand the ecological and evolutionary consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21724036, year = {2011}, author = {Singh, S and Mushtaq, U and Holm-Hansen, C and Milan, D and Cheung, A and Watts, N}, title = {The importance of climate change to health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {378}, number = {9785}, pages = {29-30}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(11)61018-0}, pmid = {21724036}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; Data Collection ; *Health ; Humans ; United Nations ; Vehicle Emissions/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid21721344, year = {2011}, author = {Cook, S}, title = {Climate change-induced conflict: a threat to human health.}, journal = {Medicine, conflict, and survival}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {17-24}, doi = {10.1080/13623699.2011.562394}, pmid = {21721344}, issn = {1362-3699}, mesh = {Altruism ; Climate Change ; *Conflict, Psychological ; Emigration and Immigration ; *Global Health ; Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid21720856, year = {2011}, author = {Bush, RK}, title = {The impact of climate change on ragweed pollination.}, journal = {Current allergy and asthma reports}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {341}, doi = {10.1007/s11882-011-0205-8}, pmid = {21720856}, issn = {1534-6315}, }
@article {pmid21720614, year = {2011}, author = {Seekell, DA and Pace, ML}, title = {Climate change drives warming in the Hudson River Estuary, New York (USA).}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {2321-2327}, doi = {10.1039/c1em10053j}, pmid = {21720614}, issn = {1464-0333}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; New York ; *Rivers/chemistry ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Estuaries may be subject to warming due to global climate change but few studies have considered the drivers or seasonality of warming empirically. We analyzed temperature trends and rates of temperature change over time for the Hudson River estuary using long-term data, mainly from daily measures taken at the Poughkeepsie Water Treatment Facility. This temperature record is among the longest in the world for a river or estuary. The Hudson River has warmed 0.945 °C since 1946. Many of the warmest years in the record occurred in the last 16 years. A seasonal analysis of trends indicated significant warming for the months of April through August. The warming of the Hudson is primarily related to increasing air temperature. Increasing freshwater discharge into the estuary has not mitigated the warming trend.}, }
@article {pmid21719608, year = {2012}, author = {Mahany, MJ and Keim, ME}, title = {Challenges and strategies for climate change adaptation among Pacific Island nations.}, journal = {Disaster medicine and public health preparedness}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {415-423}, doi = {10.1001/dmp.2011.44}, pmid = {21719608}, issn = {1938-744X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; Health Policy ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Pacific Islands ; Public Health Practice ; Risk Management/*organization &amp; administration ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Few regions of the world are at higher risk for environmental disasters than the Pacific Island countries and territories. During 2004 and 2005, the top public health leadership from 19 of 22 Pacific Island countries and territories convened 2 health summits with the goal of developing the world's first comprehensive regional strategy for sustainable disaster risk management as applied to public health emergencies. These summits followed on the objectives of the 1994 Barbados Plan of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States and those of the subsequent Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World. The outputs of the 2004 and 2005 Pacific Health Summits for Sustainable Disaster Risk Management provide a detailed description of challenges and accomplishments of the Pacific Island health ministries, establish a Pacific plan of action based upon the principles of disaster risk management, and provide a locally derived, evidence-based approach for many climate change adaptation measures related to extreme weather events in the Pacific region. The declaration and outputs from these summits are offered here as a guide for developmental and humanitarian assistance in the region (and for other small-island developing states) and as a means for reducing the risk of adverse health effects resulting from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21717959, year = {2011}, author = {Kump, LR}, title = {The last great global warming.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {305}, number = {1}, pages = {56-61}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0711-56}, pmid = {21717959}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {Global Warming/*history ; History, 21st Century ; History, Ancient ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid21715569, year = {2011}, author = {Savolainen, O and Kujala, ST and Sokol, C and Pyhäjärvi, T and Avia, K and Knürr, T and Kärkkäinen, K and Hicks, S}, title = {Adaptive potential of northernmost tree populations to climate change, with emphasis on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.).}, journal = {The Journal of heredity}, volume = {102}, number = {5}, pages = {526-536}, doi = {10.1093/jhered/esr056}, pmid = {21715569}, issn = {1465-7333}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Gene-Environment Interaction ; Genetic Loci ; *Genetic Variation ; Genotype ; Phenotype ; Pinus sylvestris/*genetics ; Trees/*genetics ; }, abstract = {The adaptive potential of the northernmost Pinus sylvestris L. (and other northern tree) populations is considered by examining first the current patterns of quantitative genetic adaptive traits, which show high population differentiation and clines. We then consider the postglacial history of the populations using both paleobiological and genetic data. The current patterns of diversity at nuclear genes suggest that the traces of admixture are mostly visible in mitochondrial DNA variation patterns. There is little evidence of increased diversity due to admixture between an eastern and western colonization lineage, but no signal of reduced diversity (due to sequential bottlenecks) either. Quantitative trait variation in the north is not associated with the colonizing lineages. The current clines arose rapidly and may be based on standing genetic variation. The initial phenotypic response of Scots pine in the north is predicted to be increased survival and growth. The genetic responses are examined based on quantitative genetic predictions of sustained selection response and compared with earlier simulation results that have aimed at more ecological realism. The phenotypic responses of increased growth and survival reduce the opportunity for selection and delay the evolutionary responses. The lengthening of the thermal growing period also causes selection on the critical photoperiod in the different populations. Future studies should aim at including multiple ecological and genetic factors in evaluating potential responses.}, }
@article {pmid21714788, year = {2011}, author = {Primack, RB and Miller-Rushing, AJ}, title = {Broadening the study of phenology and climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {191}, number = {2}, pages = {307-309}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03773.x}, pmid = {21714788}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Desert Climate ; Flowers/*physiology ; Plant Development/*physiology ; *Rain ; }, }
@article {pmid21714376, year = {2011}, author = {Sly, PD}, title = {Health impacts of climate change and biosecurity in the Asian Pacific region.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {7-12}, doi = {10.1515/reveh.2011.002}, pmid = {21714376}, issn = {0048-7554}, mesh = {Asia ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Food Supply ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Pacific Islands ; Public Health ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Our climate is changing as a result of human activity, and such changes have the potential to have a significant impact on human health. The basic requirements for health--clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter--are all vulnerable to climate change. Low-income developing countries are especially vulnerable; no country, however, is totally immune. In Australia, we are already seeing evidence of the health effects of climate change with an increase in temperature-related food poisoning events and an increase in mosquito-borne infections, including Ross River virus and Dengue fever. In the Asian Pacific region the issues identified as most pressing vary from country to country, but a common theme is a lack of public understanding and education and lack of capacity for implementing mitigation strategies. Strategies addressing the health impacts of climate change must incorporate the principles of social justice and equity within the region.}, }
@article {pmid21714375, year = {2011}, author = {Sly, PD and Arnold, RG and Carpenter, DO}, title = {Environmental exposures in the era of climate change.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {3-5}, doi = {10.1515/reveh.2011.001}, pmid = {21714375}, issn = {0048-7554}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Exposure ; Environmental Pollutants ; *Global Health ; Hazardous Waste/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid21710282, year = {2011}, author = {Jenouvrier, S and Visser, ME}, title = {Climate change, phenological shifts, eco-evolutionary responses and population viability: toward a unifying predictive approach.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {55}, number = {6}, pages = {905-919}, pmid = {21710282}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Genotype ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; Phenotype ; Plant Development ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/genetics/*metabolism ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior/physiology ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The debate on emission targets of greenhouse gasses designed to limit global climate change has to take into account the ecological consequences. One of the clearest ecological consequences is shifts in phenology. Linking these shifts to changes in population viability under various greenhouse gasses emission scenarios requires a unifying framework. We propose a box-in-a-box modeling approach that couples population models to phenological change. This approach unifies population modeling with both ecological responses to climate change as well as evolutionary processes. We advocate a mechanistic embedded correlative approach, where the link from genes to population is established using a periodic matrix population model. This periodic model has several major advantages: (1) it can include complex seasonal behaviors allowing an easy link with phenological shifts; (2) it provides the structure of the population at each phase, including the distribution of genotypes and phenotypes, allowing a link with evolutionary processes; and (3) it can incorporate the effect of climate at different time periods. We believe that the way climatologists have approached the problem, using atmosphere-ocean coupled circulation models in which components are gradually included and linked to each other, can provide a valuable example to ecologists. We hope that ecologists will take up this challenge and that our preliminary modeling framework will stimulate research toward a unifying predictive model of the ecological consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21707990, year = {2011}, author = {Hutton, G}, title = {The economics of health and climate change: key evidence for decision making.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {18}, pmid = {21707990}, issn = {1744-8603}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In responding to the health challenges of climate change, those responsible for health policies and resource allocations need to know the resource consequences of their decisions. This article examines the availability and strength of economic evidence for policy makers to draw on in making health policy decisions.<br><br>METHODS: Relevant literature was obtained using a Medline and INTERNET search of key terms and institutions working in health and climate change. Eighteen available economic studies are presented under three categories of economic evidence: health damage cost, health adaptation cost and health economic evaluation.<br><br>RESULTS: In economic studies valuing the predicted increased mortality from climate change, the health damages represent an important fraction of overall economic losses. Similarly, when considering broader health protection measures beyond the health sector (e.g. agriculture, water supply) health considerations are central. Global adaptation cost studies carried out so far indicate health sector costs of roughly US$2-5 billion annually (mid-estimates). However, these costs are expected to be an underestimate of the true costs, due to omitted health impacts, omitted economic impacts, and the costs of health actions in other sectors. No published studies compare the costs and benefits of specific health interventions to protect health from climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: More economic studies are needed examining the costs and benefits of adaptation measures to inform policy making. There is an urgent need for climate change-specific health economic guidelines to ensure robust methods are used, giving comparable results. Broader advocacy and focused training of decision makers is needed to increase the uptake of economic evidence in decision making. Until further climate change-specific economic studies have been conducted, decision makers should selectively draw on published studies of the costs and benefits of environmental health interventions.}, }
@article {pmid21703129, year = {2011}, author = {Brubaker, MY and Bell, JN and Berner, JE and Warren, JA}, title = {Climate change health assessment: a novel approach for Alaska Native communities.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {70}, number = {3}, pages = {266-273}, doi = {10.3402/ijch.v70i3.17820}, pmid = {21703129}, issn = {2242-3982}, mesh = {Alaska ; *Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; *Inuit ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Develop a process for assessing climate change impacts on public health that identifies climate-health vulnerabilities and mechanisms and encourages adaptation.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: Multi-stakeholder, participatory, qualitative research.<br><br>METHODS: A Climate Change Health Assessment (CCHA) was developed that involved 4 steps: (1) scoping to describe local conditions and engage stakeholders; (2) surveying to collect descriptive and quantitative data; (3) analysis to evaluate the data; and (4) planning to communicate findings and explore appropriate actions with community members. The health effects related to extreme weather, thinning ice, erosion, flooding, thawing permafrost and changing conditions of water and food resources were considered.<br><br>RESULTS: The CCHA process was developed and performed in north-west Arctic villages. Refinement of the process took place in Point Hope, a coastal Inupiat village that practices whaling and a variety of other traditional subsistence harvest practices. Local observers identified climate change impacts that resulted in damaged health infrastructure, compromised food and water security and increased risk of injury. Priority health issues included thawing traditional ice cellars, diminished quality of the community water source and increased safety issues related to sea ice change. The CCHA increased awareness about health vulnerability and encouraged informed planning and decision-making.<br><br>CONCLUSION: A community-scale assessment process guided by observation-based data can identify climate health impacts, raise awareness and encourage adaptive actions, thereby improving the response capacity of communities vulnerable to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21702891, year = {2012}, author = {Wamsler, C and Lawson, N}, title = {Complementing institutional with localised strategies for climate change adaptation: a South-North comparison.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {36}, number = {1}, pages = {28-53}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-7717.2011.01248.x}, pmid = {21702891}, issn = {1467-7717}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Community Networks/*organization &amp; administration ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; El Salvador ; Humans ; *Interinstitutional Relations ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Climate change and disasters pose a serious risk to sustainable development. In the South, local coping strategies are an important element of adaptation to climate and disaster risk. Such strategies have emerged because of the limited assistance provided by urban actors and associated social security and governance systems. In the North, in contrast, local coping strategies are comparatively poorly developed. However, the extent of the changing climatic conditions is also reducing the capacity of Northern institutions to deal with climatic extremes and variability, which emphasises the need for more local-level engagement in the North. This paper analyses the differences in local and institutional responses to climate change and disasters in a Southern and a Northern city (San Salvador, El Salvador, and Manchester, United Kingdom, respectively), and highlights how the lessons learned might be translated into an improved distributed governance system; that is, an 'integrated engagement model', where local and institutionalised responses support rather than hinder each other, as is currently the case.}, }
@article {pmid21700487, year = {2011}, author = {Philippot, L and Hallin, S}, title = {Towards food, feed and energy crops mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {476-480}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2011.05.007}, pmid = {21700487}, issn = {1878-4372}, mesh = {Bacteria/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Crops, Agricultural/*metabolism/microbiology ; Methane/metabolism ; Nitrogen Cycle ; Nitrous Oxide/metabolism ; Plant Exudates/metabolism ; Rhizosphere ; Soil/chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Agriculture is an important source of anthropogenic emissions of the greenhouse gases (GHG), methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O), and crops can affect the microbial processes controlling these emissions in many ways. Here, we summarize the current knowledge of plant-microbe interactions in relation to the CH(4) and N(2)O budgets and show how this is promoting new generations of crop cultivars that have the potential to mitigate GHG emissions for future agricultural use. The possibility of breeding low GHG-emitting cultivars is a paradigm shift towards sustainable agriculture that balances climate change and food and bioenergy security.}, }
@article {pmid21700056, year = {2011}, author = {Bell, MJ and Wall, E and Russell, G and Simm, G and Stott, AW}, title = {The effect of improving cow productivity, fertility, and longevity on the global warming potential of dairy systems.}, journal = {Journal of dairy science}, volume = {94}, number = {7}, pages = {3662-3678}, doi = {10.3168/jds.2010-4023}, pmid = {21700056}, issn = {1525-3198}, mesh = {Animal Feed ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Cattle/*physiology ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Energy Metabolism/*physiology ; Female ; Fertility/*physiology ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Longevity/*physiology ; Milk/chemistry ; Pregnancy ; Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {This study compared the environmental impact of a range of dairy production systems in terms of their global warming potential (GWP, expressed as carbon dioxide equivalents, CO(2)-eq.) and associated land use, and explored the efficacy of reducing said impact. Models were developed using the unique data generated from a long-term genetic line × feeding system experiment. Holstein-Friesian cows were selected to represent the UK average for milk fat plus protein production (control line) or were selected for increased milk fat plus protein production (select line). In addition, cows received a low forage diet (50% forage) with no grazing or were on a high forage (75% forage) diet with summer grazing. A Markov chain approach was used to describe the herd structure and help estimate the GWP per year and land required per cow for the 4 alternative systems and the herd average using a partial life cycle assessment. The CO(2)-eq. emissions were expressed per kilogram of energy-corrected milk (ECM) and per hectare of land use, as well as land required per kilogram of ECM. The effects of a phenotypic and genetic standard deviation unit improvement on herd feed utilization efficiency, ECM yield, calving interval length, and incidence of involuntary culling were assessed. The low forage (nongrazing) feeding system with select cows produced the lowest CO(2)-eq. emissions of 1.1 kg/kg of ECM and land use of 0.65 m(2)/kg of ECM but the highest CO(2)-eq. emissions of 16.1t/ha of the production systems studied. Within the herd, an improvement of 1 standard deviation in feed utilization efficiency was the only trait of those studied that would significantly reduce the reliance of the farming system on bought-in synthetic fertilizer and concentrate feed, as well as reduce the average CO(2)-eq. emissions and land use of the herd (both by about 6.5%, of which about 4% would be achievable through selective breeding). Within production systems, reductions in CO(2)-eq. emissions per kilogram of ECM and CO(2)-eq. emissions per hectare were also achievable by an improvement in feed utilization. This study allowed development of models that harness the biological trait variation in the animal to improve the environmental impact of the farming system. Genetic selection for efficient feed use for milk production according to feeding system can bring about reductions in system nutrient requirements, CO(2)-eq. emissions, and land use per unit product.}, }
@article {pmid21697215, year = {2011}, author = {Delamothe, T}, title = {Of swords, ploughshares, and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {342}, number = {}, pages = {d3806}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.d3806}, pmid = {21697215}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate ; Military Personnel ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid21695026, year = {2011}, author = {Carlin, A}, title = {A multidisciplinary, science-based approach to the economics of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {985-1031}, pmid = {21695026}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Climate Change/*economics ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; }, abstract = {Economic analyses of environmental mitigation and other interdisciplinary public policy issues can be much more useful if they critically examine what other disciplines have to say, insist on using the most relevant observational data and the scientific method, and examine lower cost alternatives to the change proposed. These general principles are illustrated by applying them to the case of climate change mitigation, one of the most interdisciplinary of public policy issues. The analysis shows how use of these principles leads to quite different conclusions than those of most previous such economic analyses, as follows: The economic benefits of reducing CO(2) emissions may be about two orders of magnitude less than those estimated by most economists because the climate sensitivity factor (CSF) is much lower than assumed by the United Nations because feedback is negative rather than positive and the effects of CO(2) emissions reductions on atmospheric CO(2) appear to be short rather than long lasting. The costs of CO(2) emissions reductions are very much higher than usually estimated because of technological and implementation problems recently identified. Geoengineering such as solar radiation management is a controversial alternative to CO(2) emissions reductions that offers opportunities to greatly decrease these large costs, change global temperatures with far greater assurance of success, and eliminate the possibility of low probability, high consequence risks of rising temperatures, but has been largely ignored by economists. CO(2) emissions reductions are economically unattractive since the very modest benefits remaining after the corrections for the above effects are quite unlikely to economically justify the much higher costs unless much lower cost geoengineering is used.The risk of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming appears to be so low that it is not currently worth doing anything to try to control it, including geoengineering.}, }
@article {pmid21692175, year = {2011}, author = {Gibbs, MT}, title = {Integrated assessment modeling for climate change: why we need it.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {503-504}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.200}, pmid = {21692175}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; *Models, Theoretical ; Public Policy ; *Systems Integration ; }, }
@article {pmid21690108, year = {2011}, author = {Boyles, JG and Seebacher, F and Smit, B and McKechnie, AE}, title = {Adaptive thermoregulation in endotherms may alter responses to climate change.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {51}, number = {5}, pages = {676-690}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icr053}, pmid = {21690108}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Environment ; Phenotype ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the major issues facing natural populations and thus a focus of recent research has been to predict the responses of organisms to these changes. Models are becoming more complex and now commonly include physiological traits of the organisms of interest. However, endothermic species have received less attention than have ectotherms in these mechanistic models. Further, it is not clear whether responses of endotherms to climate change are modified by variation in thermoregulatory characteristics associated with phenotypic plasticity and/or adaptation to past selective pressures. Here, we review the empirical data on thermal adaptation and acclimatization in endotherms and discuss how those factors may be important in models of responses to climate change. We begin with a discussion of why thermoregulation and thermal sensitivity at high body temperatures should be co-adapted. Importantly, we show that there is, in fact, considerable variation in the ability of endotherms to tolerate high body temperatures and/or high environmental temperatures, but a better understanding of this variation will likely be critical for predicting responses to future climatic scenarios. Next, we discuss why variation in thermoregulatory characteristics should be considered when modeling the effects of climate change on heterothermic endotherms. Finally, we review some biophysical and biochemical factors that will limit adaptation and acclimation in endotherms. We consider both long-term, directional climate change and short-term (but increasingly common) anomalies in climate such as extreme heat waves and we suggest areas of important future research relating to both our basic understanding of endothermic thermoregulation and the responses of endotherms to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21688211, year = {2012}, author = {Chen, G and Liu, H and Zhang, J and Liu, P and Dong, S}, title = {Factors affecting summer maize yield under climate change in Shandong Province in the Huanghuaihai region of China.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {621-629}, pmid = {21688211}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Light ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Zea mays/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Clarification of influencing factors (cultivar planted, cultivation management, climatic conditions) affecting yields of summer maize (Zea mays L.) would provide valuable information for increasing yields further under variable climatic conditions. Here, we report actual maize yields in the Huanghuaihai region over the past 50 years (1957-2007), simulated yields of major varieties in different years (Baimaya in the 1950s, Zhengdan-2 in the 1970s, Yedan-13 in the 1990s, and Zhengdan-958 in the 2000s), and factors that influence yield. The results show that, although each variety change has played a critical role in increasing maize yields, the contribution of variety to yield increase has decreased steadily over the past 50 years (42.6%-44.3% from the 1950s to the 1970s, 34.4%-47.2% from the 1970s to the 1990s, and 21.0%-37.6% from the 1990s to the 2000s). The impact of climatic conditions on maize yield has exhibited an increasing trend (0.67%-22.5% from the 1950s to the 1970s, 2.6%-27.0% from the 1970s to the 1990s, and 9.1%-51.1% from the 1990s to the 2000s); however, interannual differences can be large, especially if there were large changes in temperature and rainfall. Among climatic factors, rainfall had a greater positive influence than light and temperature on yield increase. Cultivation measures could change the contribution rates of variety and climatic conditions. Overall, unless there is a major breakthrough in variety, improving cultivation measures will remain important for increasing future summer maize yields in the Huanghuaihai region.}, }
@article {pmid21684031, year = {2012}, author = {Visser, A and Kroes, J and T H van Vliet, M and Blenkinsop, S and Fowler, HJ and Broers, HP}, title = {Climate change impacts on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment.}, journal = {Journal of contaminant hydrology}, volume = {127}, number = {1-4}, pages = {47-64}, doi = {10.1016/j.jconhyd.2011.04.007}, pmid = {21684031}, issn = {1873-6009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollution/analysis ; Groundwater/chemistry ; Metallurgy ; Metals, Heavy/*analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; Netherlands ; Water/*chemistry ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; Zinc/*analysis ; }, abstract = {The Keersop catchment (43km(2)) in the south of The Netherlands has been contaminated by the emissions of four zinc ore smelters. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of future projected climate change on the hydrology and the leaching of heavy metals (i.e. Cd and Zn) in the catchment. The numerical, quasi-2D, unsaturated zone Soil Water Atmosphere Plant model was used with 100-year simulated daily time series of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The time series are representative of stationary climates for the periods 1961-1990 ("baseline") and 2071-2100 ("future"). The time series of future climate were obtained by downscaling the results of eight regional climate model (RCM) experiments, driven by the SRES A2 emissions scenario, using change factors for a series of climate statistics and applying them to stochastic weather generator models. The time series are characterized by increased precipitation in winter, less precipitation in summer, and higher air temperatures (between 2°C and 5°C) throughout the year. Future climate scenarios project higher evapotranspiration rates, more irrigation, less drainage, lower discharge rates and lower groundwater levels, due to increased evapotranspiration and a slowing down of the groundwater system. As a result, lower concentrations of Cd and Zn in surface water are projected. The reduced leaching of heavy metals, due to drying of the catchment, showed a positive impact on a limited aspect of surface water quality.}, }
@article {pmid21682780, year = {2011}, author = {McMichael, AJ and Lindgren, E}, title = {Climate change: present and future risks to health, and necessary responses.}, journal = {Journal of internal medicine}, volume = {270}, number = {5}, pages = {401-413}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2796.2011.02415.x}, pmid = {21682780}, issn = {1365-2796}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Environmental Illness/*etiology ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Recent observed changes in Earth's climate, to which humans have contributed substantially, are affecting various health outcomes. These include altered distributions of some infectious disease vectors (ticks at high latitudes, malaria mosquitoes at high altitudes), and an uptrend in extreme weather events and associated deaths, injuries and other health outcomes. Future climate change, if unchecked, will have increasing, mostly adverse, health impacts - both direct and indirect. Climate change will amplify health problems in vulnerable regions, influence infectious disease emergence, affect food yields and nutrition, increase risks of climate-related disasters and impair mental health. The health sector should assist society understand the risks to health and the needed responses.}, }
@article {pmid21674254, year = {2011}, author = {Lemons, J}, title = {The urgent need for universities to comprehensively address global climate change across disciplines and programs.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {48}, number = {3}, pages = {379-391}, pmid = {21674254}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Environmental Health/education/*organization &amp; administration/trends ; Global Health ; *Global Warming ; *Health Occupations ; Health Services Needs and Demand/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Research ; Science/education/*organization &amp; administration/trends ; United States ; *Universities ; }, abstract = {I review the status of scientific, political, and moral problems of global climate change (GCC) and, based on lessons from environmental and sustainability programs in universities, demonstrate that universities have had a lethargic response to urgent needs to mitigate the problems. I explore reasons for the response, and conclude that there is an urgent need for comprehensive and wide-ranging change in universities to help mitigate GCC. My discussion is focused on those within universities as well as those in environmental professions regardless of their areas of specialization.}, }
@article {pmid21669323, year = {2011}, author = {Stuart, ME and Gooddy, DC and Bloomfield, JP and Williams, AT}, title = {A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {409}, number = {15}, pages = {2859-2873}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.04.016}, pmid = {21669323}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Nitrates/*analysis ; United Kingdom ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; Water Pollution, Chemical/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK using a Source-Pathway-Receptor framework. Changes in temperature, precipitation quantity and distribution, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will affect the agricultural nitrate source term through changes in both soil processes and agricultural productivity. Non-agricultural source terms, such as urban areas and atmospheric deposition, are also expected to be affected. The implications for the rate of nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of these changes are not yet fully understood but predictions suggest that leaching rate may increase under future climate scenarios. Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle with changes to recharge, groundwater levels and resources and flow processes. These changes will impact on concentrations of nitrate in abstracted water and other receptors, such as surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands. The implications for nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of climate changes are not yet well enough understood to be able to make useful predictions without more site-specific data. The few studies which address the whole cycle show likely changes in nitrate leaching ranging from limited increases to a possible doubling of aquifer concentrations by 2100. These changes may be masked by nitrate reductions from improved agricultural practices, but a range of adaption measures need to be identified. Future impact may also be driven by economic responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21668894, year = {2011}, author = {Burthe, S and Butler, A and Searle, KR and Hall, SJ and Thackeray, SJ and Wanless, S}, title = {Demographic consequences of increased winter births in a large aseasonally breeding mammal (Bos taurus) in response to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {80}, number = {6}, pages = {1134-1144}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2011.01865.x}, pmid = {21668894}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; England ; Environment ; Female ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Parturition ; Population Dynamics ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {1. Studies examining changes in the scheduling of breeding in response to climate change have focused on species with well-defined breeding seasons. Species exhibiting year-round breeding have received little attention and the magnitudes of any responses are unknown. 2. We investigated phenological data for an enclosed feral population of cattle (Bos taurus L.) in northern England exhibiting year-round breeding. This population is relatively free of human interference. 3. We assessed whether the timing of births had changed over the last 60 years, in response to increasing winter and spring temperatures, changes in herd density, and a regime of lime fertilisation. 4. Median birth date became earlier by 1·0 days per year. Analyses of the seasonal distribution of calving dates showed that significantly fewer calves were born in summer (decline from 44% of total births to 20%) and significantly more in winter (increase from 12% to 30%) over the study period. The most pronounced changes occurred in winter, with significant increases in both the proportion and number of births. Winter births arise from conceptions in the previous spring, and we considered models that investigated climate and weather variables associated with the winter preceding and the spring of conceptions. 5. The proportion of winter births was higher when the onset of the plant growing season was earlier during the spring of conceptions. This relationship was much weaker during years when the site had been fertilised with lime, suggesting that increased forage biomass was over-riding the impacts of changing plant phenology. When the onset of the growing season was late, winter births increased with female density. 6. Recruitment estimates from a stage-structured state-space population model were significantly negatively correlated with the proportion of births in the preceding winter, suggesting that calves born in winter are less likely to survive than those born in other seasons. 7. This is one of the first studies to document changes in the phenology of a year-round breeder, suggesting that the impact of climate on the scheduling of biological events may be more extensive than previously thought and that impacts may be negative, even for species with relatively flexible breeding strategies.}, }
@article {pmid21665153, year = {2011}, author = {Cooper, M}, title = {Climate change and the Emergency Nurse Practitioner role.}, journal = {International emergency nursing}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {111-112}, doi = {10.1016/S1755-599X(11)00052-8}, pmid = {21665153}, issn = {1878-013X}, mesh = {Emergency Medical Services/*trends ; Emergency Nursing/*trends ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid21661561, year = {2011}, author = {Diamond, SE and Frame, AM and Martin, RA and Buckley, LB}, title = {Species' traits predict phenological responses to climate change in butterflies.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {92}, number = {5}, pages = {1005-1012}, doi = {10.1890/10-1594.1}, pmid = {21661561}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Butterflies/*genetics/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Feeding Behavior ; Larva/genetics/physiology ; Models, Biological ; Phylogeny ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {How do species' traits help identify which species will respond most strongly to future climate change? We examine the relationship between species' traits and phenology in a well-established model system for climate change, the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS). Most resident U.K. butterfly species have significantly advanced their dates of first appearance during the past 30 years. We show that species with narrower larval diet breadth and more advanced overwintering stages have experienced relatively greater advances in their date of first appearance. In addition, species with smaller range sizes have experienced greater phenological advancement. Our results demonstrate that species' traits can be important predictors of responses to climate change, and they suggest that further investigation of the mechanisms by which these traits influence phenology may aid in understanding species' responses to current and future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21657036, year = {2011}, author = {Xu, C and Yang, XG and Li, Y and Wang, WF}, title = {[Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. III. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in Northwest Arid Area].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {763-772}, pmid = {21657036}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Desert Climate ; Ecology/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Plant Transpiration ; Soil/analysis ; Sunlight ; *Temperature ; Water/analysis ; }, abstract = {By using the 1961-2007 daily weather data from 78 meteorological stations in Northwest Arid Area, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural climate resources, i.e., heat, light, and precipitation, in the area, both in the whole year and in temperature-defined growth seasons of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops. In 1961-2007, the mean annual temperature in the area had an increasing trend, and the climate tendency rate was 0.35 degrees C x (10 a)(-1). The accumulated temperature in temperature-defined growth seasons of both chimonophilous and thermophilic crops also had an increasing trend, and the climate tendency rate was 67 and 50 degrees C d x (10 a)(-1), respectively. The annual sunshine hours in most stations of the research area had an obvious decreasing trend, but the sunshine hours during the temperature-defined growth seasons of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops had an increasing trend, except that in most regions of Xin-jiang and east Ningxia Plain. The annual reference evapotranspiration in most regions of the study area tended to decrease, while the reference evapotranspiration during temperature-defined growth seasons of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops tended to decrease in the west but increase in the east. Compared with that in 1961-1980, the precipitation both in the whole year and in temperature-defined growth seasons of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in 1981-2007 increased, and the increment reduced progressively from the northwest to the southeast.}, }
@article {pmid21653591, year = {2012}, author = {Kelly, MW and Sanford, E and Grosberg, RK}, title = {Limited potential for adaptation to climate change in a broadly distributed marine crustacean.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {279}, number = {1727}, pages = {349-356}, pmid = {21653591}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Copepoda/*physiology ; Geography ; Heat-Shock Response ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The extent to which acclimation and genetic adaptation might buffer natural populations against climate change is largely unknown. Most models predicting biological responses to environmental change assume that species' climatic envelopes are homogeneous both in space and time. Although recent discussions have questioned this assumption, few empirical studies have characterized intraspecific patterns of genetic variation in traits directly related to environmental tolerance limits. We test the extent of such variation in the broadly distributed tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus using laboratory rearing and selection experiments to quantify thermal tolerance and scope for adaptation in eight populations spanning more than 17° of latitude. Tigriopus californicus exhibit striking local adaptation to temperature, with less than 1 per cent of the total quantitative variance for thermal tolerance partitioned within populations. Moreover, heat-tolerant phenotypes observed in low-latitude populations cannot be achieved in high-latitude populations, either through acclimation or 10 generations of strong selection. Finally, in four populations there was no increase in thermal tolerance between generations 5 and 10 of selection, suggesting that standing variation had already been depleted. Thus, plasticity and adaptation appear to have limited capacity to buffer these isolated populations against further increases in temperature. Our results suggest that models assuming a uniform climatic envelope may greatly underestimate extinction risk in species with strong local adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid21647236, year = {2011}, author = {Hogg, OT and Barnes, DK and Griffiths, HJ}, title = {Highly diverse, poorly studied and uniquely threatened by climate change: an assessment of marine biodiversity on South Georgia's continental shelf.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {5}, pages = {e19795}, pmid = {21647236}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; *Aquatic Organisms ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Endangered Species/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Geography ; Internationality ; Oceans and Seas ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {We attempt to quantify how significant the polar archipelago of South Georgia is as a source of regional and global marine biodiversity. We evaluate numbers of rare, endemic and range-edge species and how the faunal structure of South Georgia may respond to some of the fastest warming waters on the planet. Biodiversity data was collated from a comprehensive review of reports, papers and databases, collectively representing over 125 years of polar exploration. Classification of each specimen was recorded to species level and fully geo-referenced by depth, latitude and longitude. This information was integrated with physical data layers (e.g. temperature, salinity and flow) providing a visualisation of South Georgia's biogeography across spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales, placing it in the wider context of the Southern Hemisphere. This study marks the first attempt to map the biogeography of an archipelago south of the Polar Front. Through it we identify the South Georgian shelf as the most speciose region of the Southern Ocean recorded to date. Marine biodiversity was recorded as rich across taxonomic levels with 17,732 records yielding 1,445 species from 436 families, 51 classes and 22 phyla. Most species recorded were rare, with 35% recorded only once and 86% recorded <10 times. Its marine fauna is marked by the cumulative dominance of endemic and range-edge species, potentially at their thermal tolerance limits. Consequently, our data suggests the ecological implications of environmental change to the South Georgian marine ecosystem could be severe. If sea temperatures continue to rise, we suggest that changes will include depth profile shifts of some fauna towards cooler Antarctic Winter Water (90-150 m), the loss of some range-edge species from regional waters, and the wholesale extinction at a global scale of some of South Georgia's endemic species.}, }
@article {pmid21644462, year = {2011}, author = {Doi, H and Yurlova, NI}, title = {Consequent effects of parasitism on population dynamics, food webs, and human health under climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {332-334}, pmid = {21644462}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Food Chain ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Parasites/*growth &amp; development ; *Population Dynamics ; }, }
@article {pmid21644461, year = {2011}, author = {Buckley, R}, title = {Tourism under climate change: will slow travel supersede short breaks?.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {328-331}, pmid = {21644461}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Recreation ; *Travel ; }, }
@article {pmid21644454, year = {2011}, author = {Breshears, DD and López-Hoffman, L and Graumlich, LJ}, title = {When ecosystem services crash: preparing for big, fast, patchy climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {256-263}, pmid = {21644454}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Assessments of adaptation options generally focus on incremental, homogeneous ecosystem responses to climate even though climate change impacts can be big, fast, and patchy across a region. Regional drought-induced tree die-off in semiarid woodlands highlights how an ecosystem crash fundamentally alters most ecosystem services and poses management challenges. Building on previous research showing how choice of location is linked to adaptive capacity and vulnerability, we developed a framework showing how the options for retaining desired ecosystem services in the face of sudden crashes depend on how portable the service is and whether the stakeholder is flexible with regard to the location where they receive their services. Stakeholders using portable services, or stakeholders who can move to other locations to obtain services, may be more resilient to ecosystem crashes. Our framework suggests that entering into cooperative networks with regionally distributed stakeholders is key to building resilience to big, fast, patchy crashes.}, }
@article {pmid21641620, year = {2011}, author = {Paalvast, P and van der Velde, G}, title = {New threats of an old enemy: the distribution of the shipworm Teredo navalis L. (Bivalvia: Teredinidae) related to climate change in the Port of Rotterdam area, the Netherlands.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {62}, number = {8}, pages = {1822-1829}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2011.05.009}, pmid = {21641620}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Bivalvia/classification/*physiology ; Environmental Monitoring/history/*methods ; *Global Warming ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Netherlands ; Rivers ; Salinity ; Seasons ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The effects of four climate change scenarios for the Netherlands on the distribution of the shipworm upstream of the Rhine-Meuse estuary are described. Global warming will cause dry and warmer summers and decreased river discharges. This will extend the salinity gradient upstream in summer and fall and may lead to attacks on wooden structures by the shipworm. Scenarios including one or two degree temperature increases by 2050 compared to 1990 with a weak change in the air circulation over Europe will lead to an increased chance of shipworm damage upstream from once in 36 years to once in 27 or 22 years, respectively; however, under a strong change in air circulation, the chance of shipworm damage increases to once in 6 or 3 years, respectively. The upstream expansion of the distribution of the shipworm will also be manifested in other northwest European estuaries and will be even stronger in southern Europe.}, }
@article {pmid21637252, year = {2011}, author = {Passchier, S}, title = {Climate change: Ancient Antarctic fjords.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {474}, number = {7349}, pages = {46-47}, pmid = {21637252}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Ice Cover ; Models, Theoretical ; }, }
@article {pmid21629649, year = {2011}, author = {Luedeling, E and Girvetz, EH and Semenov, MA and Brown, PH}, title = {Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {5}, pages = {e20155}, pmid = {21629649}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {BBS/E/C/00004938/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Fruit/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Nuts/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Temperature ; Trees/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields.<br><br>We estimated winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios (mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models [GCMs]; 3 greenhouse gas emissions [GHG] scenarios). For 4,293 weather stations around the world and GCM projections, Safe Winter Chill (SWC), the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of all years, was estimated for all scenarios using the "Dynamic Model" and interpolated globally. We found that SWC ranged between 0 and about 170 Chill Portions (CP) for all climate scenarios, but that the global distribution varied across scenarios. Warm regions are likely to experience severe reductions in available winter chill, potentially threatening production there. In contrast, SWC in most temperate growing regions is likely to remain relatively unchanged, and cold regions may even see an increase in SWC. Climate change impacts on SWC differed quantitatively among GCMs and GHG scenarios, with the highest GHG leading to losses up to 40 CP in warm regions, compared to 20 CP for the lowest GHG.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The extent of projected changes in winter chill in many major growing regions of fruits and nuts indicates that growers of these commodities will likely experience problems in the future. Mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce the impacts, however, adaption to changes will have to occur. To better prepare for likely impacts of climate change, efforts should be undertaken to breed tree cultivars for lower chilling requirements, to develop tools to cope with insufficient winter chill, and to better understand the temperature responses of tree crops.}, }
@article {pmid21628762, year = {2011}, author = {Vineis, P}, title = {[Water and climate change].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, pages = {155-156}, pmid = {21628762}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; Salinity ; *Water ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid21628586, year = {2011}, author = {D'Andrea, WJ and Huang, Y and Fritz, SC and Anderson, NJ}, title = {Abrupt Holocene climate change as an important factor for human migration in West Greenland.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {24}, pages = {9765-9769}, pmid = {21628586}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; *Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Emigration and Immigration ; Geography ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Greenland ; Humans ; Ice Cover ; Ireland ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Radiometric Dating ; Seawater/chemistry ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {West Greenland has had multiple episodes of human colonization and cultural transitions over the past 4,500 y. However, the explanations for these large-scale human migrations are varied, including climatic factors, resistance to adaptation, economic marginalization, mercantile exploration, and hostile neighborhood interactions. Evaluating the potential role of climate change is complicated by the lack of quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions near settlement areas and by the relative stability of Holocene temperature derived from ice cores atop the Greenland ice sheet. Here we present high-resolution records of temperature over the past 5,600 y based on alkenone unsaturation in sediments of two lakes in West Greenland. We find that major temperature changes in the past 4,500 y occurred abruptly (within decades), and were coeval in timing with the archaeological records of settlement and abandonment of the Saqqaq, Dorset, and Norse cultures, which suggests that abrupt temperature changes profoundly impacted human civilization in the region. Temperature variations in West Greenland display an antiphased relationship to temperature changes in Ireland over centennial to millennial timescales, resembling the interannual to multidecadal temperature seesaw associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation.}, }
@article {pmid21622467, year = {2010}, author = {Ledig, FT and Rehfeldt, GE and Sáenz-Romero, C and Flores-López, C}, title = {Projections of suitable habitat for rare species under global warming scenarios.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {97}, number = {6}, pages = {970-987}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.0900329}, pmid = {21622467}, issn = {0002-9122}, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Modeling the contemporary and future climate niche for rare plants is a major hurdle in conservation, yet such projections are necessary to prevent extinctions that may result from climate change. •<br><br>METHODS: We used recently developed spline climatic models and modified Random Forests statistical procedures to predict suitable habitats of three rare, endangered spruces of Mexico and a spruce of the southwestern USA. We used three general circulation models and two sets of carbon emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for future climates. &#x2022;<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Our procedures predicted present occurrence perfectly. For the decades 2030, 2060, and 2090, the ranges of all taxa progressively decreased, to the point of transient disappearance for one species in the decade 2060 but reappearance in 2090. Contrary to intuition, habitat did not develop to the north for any of the Mexican taxa; rather, climate niches for two taxa re-materialized several hundred kilometers southward in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The climate niche for a third Mexican taxon shrank drastically, and its two mitotypes responded differently, one of the first demonstrations of the importance of intraspecific genetic variation in climate niches. The climate niche of the U.S. species shrank northward and upward in elevation. &#x2022;<br><br>CONCLUSION: The results are important for conservation of these species and are of general significance for conservation by assisted colonization. We conclude that our procedures for producing models and projecting the climate niches of Mexican spruces provide a way for handling other rare plants, which constitute the great bulk of the world's endangered and most vulnerable flora.}, }
@article {pmid21613515, year = {2011}, author = {Adamo, SA and Lovett, MM}, title = {Some like it hot: the effects of climate change on reproduction, immune function and disease resistance in the cricket Gryllus texensis.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {214}, number = {Pt 12}, pages = {1997-2004}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.056531}, pmid = {21613515}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; Bacillus cereus/pathogenicity ; Climate Change ; Gryllidae/*immunology/microbiology/*physiology ; Hot Temperature ; Immunity, Innate ; Monophenol Monooxygenase/blood/immunology ; Muramidase/blood/immunology ; Reproduction ; Serratia marcescens/pathogenicity ; Texas ; }, abstract = {In many parts of the world, climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of heat waves. How do heat waves impact short-lived poikilotherms such as insects? In the cricket, Gryllus texensis, 6 days of elevated temperatures (i.e. 7°C above the average field temperature and 5°C above their preferred temperature) resulted in increased egg laying, faster egg development and greater mass gain. The increased temperature also increased activity of phenoloxidase and lysozyme-like enzymes, two immune-related enzymes, and enhanced resistance to the Gram-negative bacterium Serratia marcescens. When given a sublethal S. marcescens infection, G. texensis maintained increased reproductive output at the elevated temperature (33°C). These data suggest that heat waves could result in more numerous, disease resistant, crickets. However, resistance to the Gram-positive bacterium, Bacillus cereus was lower at temperatures above or below the average field temperature (26°C). A sublethal infection with B. cereus reduced egg laying at all temperatures and suppressed the increase in egg laying induced by higher temperatures. These results suggest that for some species-pathogen interactions, increased temperatures can induce trade-offs between reproduction and disease resistance. This result may partly explain why G. texensis prefers temperatures lower than those that produce maximal reproductive output and enhanced immune function.}, }
@article {pmid21613080, year = {2011}, author = {Liu, K and Baskin, JM and Baskin, CC and Bu, H and Liu, M and Liu, W and Du, G}, title = {Effect of storage conditions on germination of seeds of 489 species from high elevation grasslands of the eastern Tibet Plateau and some implications for climate change.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {98}, number = {1}, pages = {12-19}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.1000043}, pmid = {21613080}, issn = {1537-2197}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; Genetic Variation ; Germination/*physiology ; Humidity ; Phylogeny ; Plant Dormancy/*physiology ; Poaceae/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Temperature ; Tibet ; }, abstract = {PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Little is known about the effect of environmental conditions on seed dormancy break at the community level or how it could be affected by climate change. This study tested the effects of storage conditions on germination of 489 species from high-elevation natural grasslands on the Tibet Plateau.<br><br>METHODS: We stored seeds in dry cold, dry warm, and wet cold environments to test the effect of these conditions on germination. Germination responses were classified with the use of cluster analysis. The effect of phylogeny on germination response to storage conditions was determined.<br><br>KEY RESULTS: Compared with results of wet cold conditions, storing seeds at dry warm or dry cold conditions decreased the mean community germination percentage by 17.93% and 16.07%, respectively. Storing seeds at dry warm vs. dry cold conditions decreased the community mean germination percentage by 4.61%. The germination response to moisture conditions during storage showed significant phylogenetic patterns, whereas the germination response to storage temperature did not. On the basis of the germinability of seeds of the same species stored under different conditions, germination may increase, decrease, or stay the same.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Within the high-elevation Tibetan grassland community, the different responses in dormancy breaking and germination behavior to the same storage conditions may have implications for understanding how this community might respond to climate change. In particular, some species may increase in the community, whereas others may decrease or remain the same. However, the potential for such change can be detected only by studying the responses of many species.}, }
@article {pmid21612904, year = {2011}, author = {Kim, MH and Song, YE and Song, HB and Kim, JW and Hwang, SJ}, title = {Evaluation of food waste disposal options by LCC analysis from the perspective of global warming: Jungnang case, South Korea.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {31}, number = {9-10}, pages = {2112-2120}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2011.04.019}, pmid = {21612904}, issn = {1879-2456}, mesh = {*Garbage ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Economic ; Republic of Korea ; }, abstract = {The costs associated with eight food waste disposal options, dry feeding, wet feeding, composting, anaerobic digestion, co-digestion with sewage sludge, food waste disposer, incineration, and landfilling, were evaluated in the perspective of global warming and energy and/or resource recovery. An expanded system boundary was employed to compare by-products. Life cycle cost was analyzed through the entire disposal process, which included discharge, separate collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal stages, all of which were included in the system boundary. Costs and benefits were estimated by an avoided impact. Environmental benefits of each system per 1 tonne of food waste management were estimated using carbon prices resulting from CO(2) reduction by avoided impact, as well as the prices of by-products such as animal feed, compost, and electricity. We found that the cost of landfilling was the lowest, followed by co-digestion. The benefits of wet feeding systems were the highest and landfilling the lowest.}, }
@article {pmid21608260, year = {2011}, author = {Dai, SW and Yang, XG and Zhao, M and Li, Y and Wang, WF and Liu, ZJ}, title = {[Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. II. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in Southwest China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {442-452}, pmid = {21608260}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Ecology/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Geographic Information Systems ; Rain ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1961-2007 ground observation data from 88 meteorological stations in Southwest China, and by using statistical methods and GIS software, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in this region in the whole year and during temperature-defined growth period. In 1961-2007, the annual mean temperature in the region showed an increasing trend, with the increment averaged 0.18 degrees C x (10 a)(-1). The > or = 10 degrees C and > or = 15 degrees C accumulated temperature during temperature-defined growth period also showed an increasing trend, with the increment averaged 55.3 degrees C x d x (10 a)(-1) and 37 degrees C x d x (10 a)(-1), respectively. The annual sunshine hours decreased gradually from west to east, and the decreasing trend was more significant in eastern than in western region. The sunshine hours during temperature-defined growth period showed an overall increasing trend, and the spatial difference was great. The precipitation resource had an overall decrease, with the decrement in whole year and during temperature-defined growth period averaged 10 mm x (10 a)(-1) and 8 mm x (10 a)(-1), respectively. The annual reference crop evapotranspiration generally decreased, but the decrement was less than that of annual precipitation. The reference crop evapotranspiration during temperature-defined growth period within about 53% meteorological stations decreased.}, }
@article {pmid21608241, year = {2011}, author = {Chen, NN and Yuan, FH and Wang, AZ and Wu, JB and Jin, CJ and Guan, DX and Shi, TT}, title = {[Simulation of the effects of climate change on canopy transpiration over a broad-leaved Korean pine forest in Changbai Mountains].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {309-316}, pmid = {21608241}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Pinus/*growth &amp; development ; *Plant Transpiration ; Soil/analysis ; Water/*analysis ; }, abstract = {To investigate the effects of climate change on canopy transpiration, a process-based carbon and water coupling multi-layer model was verified, and used to simulate the canopy transpiration over a broad-leaved Korean pine forest in Changbai Mountains. This multi-layer model could well estimate canopy transpiration. The simulated values fitted well with the measured data based on eddy covariance method. The simulation of the responses of canopy transpiration to climate change indicated that the latent heat flux (LE) increased with increasing air temperature, and decreased with the decline of soil water content or the increase of air CO2 concentration. Under the climate scenarios in this study, the LE was most sensitive to the associated variation of 10% reduction of soil water content in 0-20 cm layer and 190 micromol x mol(-1) increase of CO2 concentration, but not sensitive to the synchronous variation of 10% reduce of soil water content and 3.6 degrees C increase of air temperature.}, }
@article {pmid21605305, year = {2011}, author = {Bouvy, M and Bettarel, Y and Bouvier, C and Domaizon, I and Jacquet, S and Le Floc'h, E and Montanié, H and Mostajir, B and Sime-Ngando, T and Torréton, JP and Vidussi, F and Bouvier, T}, title = {Trophic interactions between viruses, bacteria and nanoflagellates under various nutrient conditions and simulated climate change.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {1842-1857}, doi = {10.1111/j.1462-2920.2011.02498.x}, pmid = {21605305}, issn = {1462-2920}, mesh = {Bacteria/*growth &amp; development/virology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Food Chain ; Mediterranean Sea ; Phytoplankton/*growth &amp; development/microbiology/virology ; Population Dynamics ; Principal Component Analysis ; Seawater/microbiology/virology ; Temperature ; Ultraviolet Rays ; Viruses/*growth &amp; development ; *Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Population dynamics in the microbial food web are influenced by resource availability and predator/parasitism activities. Climatic changes, such as an increase in temperature and/or UV radiation, can also modify ecological systems in many ways. A series of enclosure experiments was conducted using natural microbial communities from a Mediterranean lagoon to assess the response of microbial communities to top-down control [grazing by heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF), viral lysis] and bottom-up control (nutrients) under various simulated climatic conditions (temperature and UV-B radiations). Different biological assemblages were obtained by separating bacteria and viruses from HNF by size fractionation which were then incubated in whirl-Pak bags exposed to an increase of 3°C and 20% UV-B above the control conditions for 96 h. The assemblages were also provided with an inorganic and organic nutrient supply. The data show (i) a clear nutrient limitation of bacterial growth under all simulated climatic conditions in the absence of HNF, (ii) a great impact of HNF grazing on bacteria irrespective of the nutrient conditions and the simulated climatic conditions, (iii) a significant decrease in burst size (BS) (number of intracellular lytic viruses per bacterium) and a significant increase of VBR (virus to bacterium ratio) in the presence of HNF, and (iv) a much larger temperature effect than UV-B radiation effect on the bacterial dynamics. These results show that top-down factors, essentially HNF grazing, control the dynamics of the lagoon bacterioplankton assemblage and that short-term simulated climate changes are only a secondary effect controlling microbial processes.}, }
@article {pmid21603975, year = {2011}, author = {Hasunuma, K and Yoshida, Y and Haque, ME and Wang, NY and Fukamatsu, Y and Miyoshi, O and Lee, B}, title = {Global warming, plant paraquat resistance, and light signal transduction through nucleoside diphosphate kinase as a paradigm for increasing food supply.}, journal = {Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology}, volume = {384}, number = {4-5}, pages = {391-395}, pmid = {21603975}, issn = {1432-1912}, mesh = {Crops, Agricultural/drug effects/enzymology/*growth &amp; development ; *Food Supply ; *Global Warming ; Herbicide Resistance ; Herbicides/*pharmacology ; *Light Signal Transduction ; Nucleoside-Diphosphate Kinase/*metabolism ; Paraquat/*pharmacology ; }, abstract = {Light signal transduction was studied in extracts of mycelia of the fungus Neurospora crassa, and the third internodes of dark-grown Pisum sativum cv Alaska. Both processes increased the phosphorylation of nucleoside diphosphate kinase (NDPK). NDPK may function as a carrier of reduction equivalents, as it binds NADH, thereby providing electrons to transform singlet oxygen to superoxide by catalases (CAT). As the C-termini of NDPK interact with CAT which receive singlet oxygen, emitted from photoreceptors post light perception (which is transmitted to ambient triplet oxygen), we hypothesize that this may increase phospho-NDPK. Singlet oxygen, emitted from the photoreceptor, also reacts with unsaturated fatty acids in membranes thereby forming malonedialdehyde, which in turn could release ions from, e.g., the thylacoid membrane thereby reducing the rate of photosynthesis. A mutant of Alaska pea, which exhibited two mutations in chloroplast NDPK-2 and one mutation in mitochondrial localized NDPK-3, was resistant to reactive oxygen species including singlet oxygen and showed an increase in the production of carotenoids, anthocyanine, and thereby could reduce the concentration of singlet oxygen. The reduction of the concentration of singlet oxygen is predicted to increase the yield of crop plants, such as Alaska pea, soybean, rice, wheat, barley, and sugarcane. This approach to increase the yield of crop plants may contribute not only to enhance food supply, but also to reduce the concentration of CO(2) in the atmosphere.}, }
@article {pmid21602101, year = {2011}, author = {Anderson, OR}, title = {Soil respiration, climate change and the role of microbial communities.}, journal = {Protist}, volume = {162}, number = {5}, pages = {679-690}, doi = {10.1016/j.protis.2011.04.001}, pmid = {21602101}, issn = {1618-0941}, mesh = {Bacteria/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid21600004, year = {2011}, author = {Semenza, JC and Ploubidis, GB and George, LA}, title = {Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {46}, pmid = {21600004}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Disasters ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Theoretical ; *Motivation ; Risk Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures.<br><br>METHODS: In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4-4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1-3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2-3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4-3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5-3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0-2.2).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Motivation for voluntary mitigation is mostly dependent on perceived susceptibility to threats and severity of climate change or climate variability impacts, whereas adaptation is largely dependent on the availability of information relevant to climate change. Thus, the climate change discourse could be framed from a health perspective to motivate behaviour change.}, }
@article {pmid21597936, year = {2012}, author = {Martin, SL and Cakmak, S and Hebbern, CA and Avramescu, ML and Tremblay, N}, title = {Climate change and future temperature-related mortality in 15 Canadian cities.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {605-619}, pmid = {21597936}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Canada ; Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Mortality ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The environmental changes caused by climate change represent a significant challenge to human societies. One part of this challenge will be greater heat-related mortality. Populations in the northern hemisphere will experience temperature increases exceeding the global average, but whether this will increase or decrease total temperature-related mortality burdens is debated. Here, we use distributed lag modeling to characterize temperature-mortality relationships in 15 Canadian cities. Further, we examine historical trends in temperature variation across Canada. We then develop city-specific general linear models to estimate change in high- and low-temperature-related mortality using dynamically downscaled climate projections for four future periods centred on 2040, 2060 and 2080. We find that the minimum mortality temperature is frequently located at approximately the 75th percentile of the city's temperature distribution, and that Canadians currently experience greater and longer lasting risk from cold-related than heat-related mortality. Additionally, we find no evidence that temperature variation is increasing in Canada. However, the projected increased temperatures are sufficient to change the relative levels of heat- and cold-related mortality in some cities. While most temperature-related mortality will continue to be cold-related, our models predict that higher temperatures will increase the burden of annual temperature-related mortality in Hamilton, London, Montreal and Regina, but result in slight to moderate decreases in the burden of mortality in the other 11 cities investigated.}, }
@article {pmid21597251, year = {2011}, author = {Clusella-Trullas, S and Blackburn, TM and Chown, SL}, title = {Climatic predictors of temperature performance curve parameters in ectotherms imply complex responses to climate change.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {177}, number = {6}, pages = {738-751}, doi = {10.1086/660021}, pmid = {21597251}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Lizards/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Seasons ; Snakes/*physiology ; Temperature ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Determining organismal responses to climate change is one of biology's greatest challenges. Recent forecasts for future climates emphasize altered temperature variation and precipitation, but most studies of animals have largely focused on forecasting the outcome of changes in mean temperature. Theory suggests that extreme thermal variation and precipitation will influence species performance and hence affect their response to changes in climate. Using an information-theoretic approach, we show that in squamate ectotherms (mostly lizards and snakes), two fitness-influencing components of performance, the critical thermal maximum and the thermal optimum, are more closely related to temperature variation and to precipitation, respectively, than they are to mean thermal conditions. By contrast, critical thermal minimum is related to mean annual temperature. Our results suggest that temperature variation and precipitation regimes have had a strong influence on the evolution of ectotherm performance, so that forecasts for animal responses to climate change will have to incorporate these factors and not only changes in average temperature.}, }
@article {pmid21594921, year = {2011}, author = {Andresen, LC and Konestabo, HS and Maraldo, K and Holmstrup, M and Ambus, P and Beier, C and Michelsen, A}, title = {Organic matter flow in the food web at a temperate heath under multifactorial climate change.}, journal = {Rapid communications in mass spectrometry : RCM}, volume = {25}, number = {11}, pages = {1485-1496}, doi = {10.1002/rcm.4907}, pmid = {21594921}, issn = {1097-0231}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/*chemistry/*metabolism ; Carbon Isotopes/analysis/metabolism ; Droughts ; *Food Chain ; *Global Warming ; Mass Spectrometry ; *Models, Biological ; *Nitrogen Cycle ; Nitrogen Isotopes/analysis/metabolism ; Soil ; Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The rising atmospheric CO(2) concentration, increasing temperature and changed patterns of precipitation currently expose terrestrial ecosystems to altered environmental conditions. This may affect belowground nutrient cycling through its intimate relationship with the belowground decomposers. Three climate change factors (elevated CO(2), increased temperature and drought) were investigated in a full factorial field experiment at a temperate heathland location. The combined effect of biotic and abiotic factors on nitrogen and carbon flows was traced in plant root → litter → microbe → detritivore/omnivore → predator food-web for one year after amendment with (15)N(13)C(2)-glycine. Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) measurement of (15)N/(14)N and (13)C/(12)C in soil extracts and functional ecosystem compartments revealed that the recovery of (15)N sometimes decreased through the chain of consumption, with the largest amount of bioactive (15)N label pool accumulated in the microbial biomass. The elevated CO(2) concentration at the site for 2 years increased the biomass, the (15)N enrichment and the (15)N recovery in detritivores. This suggests that detritivore consumption was controlled by both the availability of the microbial biomass, a likely major food source, and the climatic factors. Furthermore, the natural abundance δ(13)C of enchytraeids was significantly altered in CO(2)-fumigated plots, showing that even small changes in δ(13)C-CO(2) can be used to detect transfer of carbon from primary producers to detritivores. We conclude that, in the short term, the climate change treatments affected soil organism activity, possibly with labile carbohydrate production controlling the microbial and detritivore biomass, with potential consequences for the decomposition of detritus and nutrient cycling. Hence, there appears to be a strong coupling of responses in carbon and nitrogen cycling at this temperate heath.}, }
@article {pmid21593035, year = {2012}, author = {Provan, J and Maggs, CA}, title = {Unique genetic variation at a species' rear edge is under threat from global climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {279}, number = {1726}, pages = {39-47}, pmid = {21593035}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Cell Nucleus/*genetics ; Chondrus/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Europe ; *Genetic Variation ; Microsatellite Repeats ; North America ; Phylogeography ; Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is having a significant effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species, causing both range shifts and population extinctions. To date, however, no consensus has emerged on how these processes will affect the range-wide genetic diversity of impacted species. It has been suggested that species that recolonized from low-latitude refugia might harbour high levels of genetic variation in rear-edge populations, and that loss of these populations could cause a disproportionately large reduction in overall genetic diversity in such taxa. In the present study, we have examined the distribution of genetic diversity across the range of the seaweed Chondrus crispus, a species that has exhibited a northward shift in its southern limit in Europe over the last 40 years. Analysis of 19 populations from both sides of the North Atlantic using mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), sequence data from two single-copy nuclear regions and allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci revealed unique genetic variation for all marker classes in the rear-edge populations in Iberia, but not in the rear-edge populations in North America. Palaeodistribution modelling and statistical testing of alternative phylogeographic scenarios indicate that the unique genetic diversity in Iberian populations is a result not only of persistence in the region during the last glacial maximum, but also because this refugium did not contribute substantially to the recolonization of Europe after the retreat of the ice. Consequently, loss of these rear-edge populations as a result of ongoing climate change will have a major effect on the overall genetic diversity of the species, particularly in Europe, and this could compromise the adaptive potential of the species as a whole in the face of future global warming.}, }
@article {pmid21584394, year = {2011}, author = {Cornelissen, T}, title = {Climate change and its effects on terrestrial insects and herbivory patterns.}, journal = {Neotropical entomology}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {155-163}, doi = {10.1590/s1519-566x2011000200001}, pmid = {21584394}, issn = {1678-8052}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; *Feeding Behavior ; Hot Temperature ; Insecta/*physiology ; Ozone ; Plants/metabolism ; Volatile Organic Compounds ; }, abstract = {Climate change and extreme weather events affect plants and animals and the direct impact of anthropogenic climate change has been documented extensively over the past years. In this review, I address the main consequences of elevated CO2 and O3 concentrations, elevated temperature and changes in rainfall patterns on the interactions between insects and their host plants. Because of their tight relationship with host plants, insect herbivores are expected to suffer direct and indirect effects of climate change through the changes experienced by their host plants, with consequences to population dynamics, community structure and ecosystem functioning.}, }
@article {pmid21566178, year = {2011}, author = {Weaver, AJ}, title = {Climate change. Toward the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {332}, number = {6031}, pages = {795-796}, doi = {10.1126/science.1202087}, pmid = {21566178}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid21563357, year = {2010}, author = {Rock, C and Horgan, M}, title = {Leptospirosis--on the increase due to global warming.}, journal = {Irish medical journal}, volume = {103}, number = {10}, pages = {317}, pmid = {21563357}, issn = {0332-3102}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Humans ; Ireland/epidemiology ; Leptospirosis/*epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid21562865, year = {2011}, author = {Linares, JC and Tíscar, PA}, title = {Buffered climate change effects in a Mediterranean pine species: range limit implications from a tree-ring study.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {167}, number = {3}, pages = {847-859}, pmid = {21562865}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; Hot Temperature ; Mediterranean Region ; Pinus/anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Spain ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Within-range effects of climatic change on tree growth at the sub-regional scale remain poorly understood. The aim of this research was to use climate and radial-growth data to explain how long-term climatic trends affect tree growth patterns along the southern limit of the range of Pinus nigra ssp. salzmannii (Eastern Baetic Range, southern Spain). We used regional temperature and precipitation data and measured sub-regional radial growth variation in P. nigra forests over the past two centuries. A dynamic factor analysis was applied to test the hypothesis that trees subjected to different climates have experienced contrasting long-term growth variability. We defined four representative stand types based on average temperature and precipitation to evaluate climate-growth relationships using linear mixed-effect models and multi-model selection criteria. All four stand types experienced warming and declining precipitation throughout the twentieth century. From the onset of the twentieth century, synchronised basal-area increment decline was accounted for by dynamic factor analysis and was related to drought by climate-growth models; declining basal-area increment trends proved stronger at lower elevations, whereas temperature was positively related to growth in areas with high rainfall inputs. Given the contrasting sub-regional tree-growth responses to climate change, the role of drought becomes even more complex in shaping communities and affecting selection pressure in the Mediterranean mountain forests. Potential vegetation shifts will likely occur over the dry edge of species distributions, with major impacts on ecosystem structure and function.}, }
@article {pmid21562010, year = {2011}, author = {Hayes, P}, title = {Climate change. Overpopulation is main driver.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {342}, number = {}, pages = {d2886}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.d2886}, pmid = {21562010}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Population Density ; }, }
@article {pmid21560547, year = {2010}, author = {Zia, A and Todd, AM}, title = {Evaluating the effects of ideology on public understanding of climate change science: how to improve communication across ideological divides?.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {743-761}, doi = {10.1177/0963662509357871}, pmid = {21560547}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communication ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Linear Models ; *Politics ; Public Opinion ; Public Policy ; Religion ; Risk Assessment ; Security Measures ; }, abstract = {While ideology can have a strong effect on citizen understanding of science, it is unclear how ideology interacts with other complicating factors, such as college education, which influence citizens' comprehension of information. We focus on public understanding of climate change science and test the hypotheses: [H1] as citizens' ideology shifts from liberal to conservative, concern for global warming decreases; [H2] citizens with college education and higher general science literacy tend to have higher concern for global warming; and [H3] college education does not increase global warming concern for conservative ideologues. We implemented a survey instrument in California's San Francisco Bay Area, and employed regression models to test the effects of ideology and other socio-demographic variables on citizen concern about global warming, terrorism, the economy, health care and poverty. We are able to confirm H1 and H3, but reject H2. Various strategies are discussed to improve the communication of climate change science across ideological divides.}, }
@article {pmid21560546, year = {2010}, author = {Dirikx, A and Gelders, D}, title = {To frame is to explain: a deductive frame-analysis of Dutch and French climate change coverage during the annual UN Conferences of the Parties.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {732-742}, doi = {10.1177/0963662509352044}, pmid = {21560546}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; France ; Humans ; Netherlands ; *Newspapers as Topic/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Public Opinion ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {This study examines the way Dutch and French newspapers frame climate change during the annual United Nations Conferences of the Parties. The methods used in previous studies on the framing of climate change do not allow for general cross-national comparisons. We conduct a quantitative deductive framing analysis on 257 quality Dutch and French newspaper articles between 2001 and 2007. Both countries' newspapers seem to frame climate change through mainly the same lens. The majority of the articles make reference to the consequences of the (non-)pursuit of a certain course of action and of possible losses and gains (consequences frame). Additionally, many articles mention the need for urgent actions, refer to possible solutions and suggest that governments are responsible for and/or capable of alleviating climate change problems (responsibility frame). Finally, the conflict frame was found to be used less often than the aforementioned frames, but more regularly than the human interest frame.}, }
@article {pmid21560545, year = {2010}, author = {Höijer, B}, title = {Emotional anchoring and objectification in the media reporting on climate change.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {717-731}, doi = {10.1177/0963662509348863}, pmid = {21560545}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communication ; *Emotions ; Empathy ; Fear ; Guilt ; Humans ; Mass Media ; }, abstract = {Using the framework of social representations theory--more precisely the concepts of anchoring and objectification--this article analyses the emotions on which the media reporting on climate change draws. Emotions are thereby regarded as discursive phenomena. A qualitative analysis of two series in Swedish media on climate change, one in a tabloid newspaper and one in public service television news, is presented showing how the verbal and visual representations are attached to emotions of fear, hope, guilt, compassion and nostalgia. It is further argued that emotional representations of climate change may on the one hand enhance public engagement in the issue, but on the other hand may draw attention away from climate change as the abstract, long-term phenomenon of a statistical character that it is.}, }
@article {pmid21560544, year = {2010}, author = {Sonnett, J}, title = {Climates of risk: a field analysis of global climate change in US media discourse, 1997-2004.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {698-716}, doi = {10.1177/0963662509346368}, pmid = {21560544}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Concept Formation ; Humans ; *Journalism ; *Mass Media ; Risk Assessment ; United States ; }, abstract = {How are industry and environmentalist discourses of climate risk related to dominant scientific and political discourses? This study operationalizes Bourdieu's concept of symbolic capital in order to map dimensions of risk description and prescription onto a journalistic field of industry, environmentalist, scientific, and political media. Results show that conventional definitions of risk mirror an opposition between scientific and political discourses. Prescriptions for action on risk are partly autonomous from definitions however. Environmentalist and scientific media feature more proactive discourse, and industry and political media feature more reactive discourse. Implications for future research on climate risk and relational studies of media discourse are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid21558199, year = {2010}, author = {Coleman, FC and Koenig, CC}, title = {The effects of fishing, climate change, and other anthropogenic disturbances on red grouper and other reef fishes in the Gulf of Mexico.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {50}, number = {2}, pages = {201-212}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icq072}, pmid = {21558199}, issn = {1557-7023}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Coral Reefs ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Mexico ; Oceans and Seas ; United States ; }, abstract = {In this article, we consider the potential effects of anthropogenic disturbances on marine fish species known or suspected to be habitat engineers. The three species of interest inhabit different marine habitats at different life stages, and therefore can have significant influences across the sea floor at broad spatial scales. The primary species include the shallow-water Atlantic goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara), which inhabits mangrove root systems as juveniles, and caves, shipwrecks, and rocky reefs as adults; red grouper (E. morio), which excavates habitat throughout its benthic life in Karst regions of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, from the coast to the shelf-edge; and tilefish (Lopholatilus chamaeleonticeps), a species that lives on the continental slope and constructs elaborate, pueblo-esque burrows. The anthropogenic disturbances of greatest interest in the Gulf of Mexico include fishing, hypoxia, red tide, oil and gas exploration, and climatic change. We suggest that to understand the broader effects of both natural and anthropogenic disturbances on biomass and productivity in these species requires that we first understand the strength of interactions between them and the other species residing within their communities (e.g., predators, prey, commensals, and mutualists).}, }
@article {pmid21556186, year = {2011}, author = {Egbendewe-Mondzozo, A and Musumba, M and McCarl, BA and Wu, X}, title = {Climate change and vector-borne diseases: an economic impact analysis of malaria in Africa.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {913-930}, pmid = {21556186}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Inpatients ; Malaria/*economics/epidemiology/therapy/transmission ; *Models, Econometric ; Outpatients ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {A semi-parametric econometric model is used to study the relationship between malaria cases and climatic factors in 25 African countries. Results show that a marginal change in temperature and precipitation levels would lead to a significant change in the number of malaria cases for most countries by the end of the century. Consistent with the existing biophysical malaria model results, the projected effects of climate change are mixed. Our model projects that some countries will see an increase in malaria cases but others will see a decrease. We estimate projected malaria inpatient and outpatient treatment costs as a proportion of annual 2000 health expenditures per 1,000 people. We found that even under minimal climate change scenario, some countries may see their inpatient treatment cost of malaria increase more than 20%.}, }
@article {pmid21556176, year = {2011}, author = {Bone, C and Alessa, L and Altaweel, M and Kliskey, A and Lammers, R}, title = {Assessing the impacts of local knowledge and technology on climate change vulnerability in remote communities.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {733-761}, pmid = {21556176}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Alaska ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environment ; Humans ; Knowledge ; Middle Aged ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Rural Population ; Technology ; Water Supply ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The introduction of new technologies into small remote communities can alter how individuals acquire knowledge about their surrounding environment. This is especially true when technologies that satisfy basic needs, such as freshwater use, create a distance (i.e., diminishing exposure) between individuals and their environment. However, such distancing can potentially be countered by the transfer of local knowledge between community members and from one generation to the next. The objective of this study is to simulate by way of agent-based modeling the tensions between technology-induced distancing and local knowledge that are exerted on community vulnerability to climate change. A model is developed that simulates how a collection of individual perceptions about changes to climatic-related variables manifest into community perceptions, how perceptions are influenced by the movement away from traditional resource use, and how the transmission of knowledge mitigates the potentially adverse effects of technology-induced distancing. The model is implemented utilizing climate and social data for two remote communities located on the Seward Peninsula in western Alaska. The agent-based model simulates a set of scenarios that depict different ways in which these communities may potentially engage with their natural resources, utilize knowledge transfer, and develop perceptions of how the local climate is different from previous years. A loosely-coupled pan-arctic climate model simulates changes monthly changes to climatic variables. The discrepancy between the perceptions derived from the agent-based model and the projections simulated by the climate model represent community vulnerability. The results demonstrate how demographics, the communication of knowledge and the types of 'knowledge-providers' influence community perception about changes to their local climate.}, }
@article {pmid21555476, year = {2011}, author = {Ebi, K}, title = {Climate change and health risks: assessing and responding to them through 'adaptive management'.}, journal = {Health affairs (Project Hope)}, volume = {30}, number = {5}, pages = {924-930}, doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2011.0071}, pmid = {21555476}, issn = {1544-5208}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; *Decision Making, Organizational ; Extreme Heat ; Food Supply ; Forecasting ; Health Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Malnutrition/epidemiology ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {Climate change and associated changing weather patterns, including severe weather events, are expected to increase the prevalence of a wide range of health risks. Yet there is uncertainty about the timing, location, and severity of these changes. Adaptive management, a structured process of decision making in the face of imperfect information, is an approach that can help the public health field effectively anticipate, plan for, and respond to the health risks of climate change. In this article I describe adaptive management and how it could increase the effectiveness of local and national strategies, policies, and programs to manage climate-sensitive health outcomes.}, }
@article {pmid21553956, year = {2011}, author = {Weber, EU and Stern, PC}, title = {Public understanding of climate change in the United States.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {315-328}, doi = {10.1037/a0023253}, pmid = {21553956}, issn = {1935-990X}, mesh = {*Attitude ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Comprehension ; Humans ; Public Health ; Risk ; Science ; United States ; }, abstract = {This article considers scientific and public understandings of climate change and addresses the following question: Why is it that while scientific evidence has accumulated to document global climate change and scientific opinion has solidified about its existence and causes, U.S. public opinion has not and has instead become more polarized? Our review supports a constructivist account of human judgment. Public understanding is affected by the inherent difficulty of understanding climate change, the mismatch between people's usual modes of understanding and the task, and, particularly in the United States, a continuing societal struggle to shape the frames and mental models people use to understand the phenomena. We conclude by discussing ways in which psychology can help to improve public understanding of climate change and link a better understanding to action. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved).}, }
@article {pmid21553955, year = {2011}, author = {Stern, PC}, title = {Contributions of psychology to limiting climate change.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {303-314}, doi = {10.1037/a0023235}, pmid = {21553955}, issn = {1935-990X}, mesh = {*Behavior ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Policy ; }, abstract = {Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological contributions, summarizes what psychology has learned, and sets out an agenda for making additional contributions. It emphasizes that the greatest potential for contributions from psychology comes not from direct application of psychological concepts but from integrating psychological knowledge and methods with knowledge from other fields of science and technology.}, }
@article {pmid21553954, year = {2011}, author = {Gifford, R}, title = {The dragons of inaction: psychological barriers that limit climate change mitigation and adaptation.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {290-302}, doi = {10.1037/a0023566}, pmid = {21553954}, issn = {1935-990X}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Most people think climate change and sustainability are important problems, but too few global citizens engaged in high-greenhouse-gas-emitting behavior are engaged in enough mitigating behavior to stem the increasing flow of greenhouse gases and other environmental problems. Why is that? Structural barriers such as a climate-averse infrastructure are part of the answer, but psychological barriers also impede behavioral choices that would facilitate mitigation, adaptation, and environmental sustainability. Although many individuals are engaged in some ameliorative action, most could do more, but they are hindered by seven categories of psychological barriers, or "dragons of inaction": limited cognition about the problem, ideological world views that tend to preclude pro-environmental attitudes and behavior, comparisons with key other people, sunk costs and behavioral momentum, discredence toward experts and authorities, perceived risks of change, and positive but inadequate behavior change. Structural barriers must be removed wherever possible, but this is unlikely to be sufficient. Psychologists must work with other scientists, technical experts, and policymakers to help citizens overcome these psychological barriers.}, }
@article {pmid21553953, year = {2011}, author = {Reser, JP and Swim, JK}, title = {Adapting to and coping with the threat and impacts of climate change.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {277-289}, doi = {10.1037/a0023412}, pmid = {21553953}, issn = {1935-990X}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Behavior ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Humans ; Models, Psychological ; Resilience, Psychological ; Stress, Psychological ; }, abstract = {This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to adequately communicate and explain how a more psychological framing of the human dimensions of global environmental change can greatly inform and enhance effective and collaborative climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and research. An integrative framework is provided that identifies and considers important mediating and moderating parameters and processes relating to climate change adaptation, with particular emphasis given to environmental stress and stress and coping perspectives. This psychological perspective on climate change adaptation highlights crucial aspects of adaptation that have been neglected in the arena of climate change science. Of particular importance are intra-individual and social "psychological adaptation" processes that powerfully mediate public risk perceptions and understandings, effective coping responses and resilience, overt behavioral adjustment and change, and psychological and social impacts. This psychological window on climate change adaptation is arguably indispensable to genuinely multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research and policy initiatives addressing the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21553952, year = {2011}, author = {Doherty, TJ and Clayton, S}, title = {The psychological impacts of global climate change.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {265-276}, doi = {10.1037/a0023141}, pmid = {21553952}, issn = {1935-990X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; *Disasters ; *Environment ; Humans ; }, abstract = {An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological impacts: direct (e.g., acute or traumatic effects of extreme weather events and a changed environment); indirect (e.g., threats to emotional well-being based on observation of impacts and concern or uncertainty about future risks); and psychosocial (e.g., chronic social and community effects of heat, drought, migrations, and climate-related conflicts, and postdisaster adjustment). Responses include providing psychological interventions in the wake of acute impacts and reducing the vulnerabilities contributing to their severity; promoting emotional resiliency and empowerment in the context of indirect impacts; and acting at systems and policy levels to address broad psychosocial impacts. The challenge of climate change calls for increased ecological literacy, a widened ethical responsibility, investigations into a range of psychological and social adaptations, and an allocation of resources and training to improve psychologists' competency in addressing climate change-related impacts.}, }
@article {pmid21553951, year = {2011}, author = {Swim, JK and Clayton, S and Howard, GS}, title = {Human behavioral contributions to climate change: psychological and contextual drivers.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {251-264}, doi = {10.1037/a0023472}, pmid = {21553951}, issn = {1935-990X}, mesh = {*Behavior ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Culture ; *Environment ; Humans ; Population ; }, abstract = {We are facing rapid changes in the global climate, and these changes are attributable to human behavior. Humans produce this global impact through our use of natural resources, multiplied by the vast increase in population seen in the past 50 to 100 years. Our goal in this article is to examine the underlying psychosocial causes of human impact, primarily through patterns of reproduction and consumption. We identify and distinguish individual, societal, and behavioral predictors of environmental impact. Relevant research in these areas (as well as areas that would be aided by greater attention by psychologists) are reviewed. We conclude by highlighting ethical issues that emerge when considering how to address human behavioral contributions to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21553950, year = {2011}, author = {Swim, JK and Stern, PC and Doherty, TJ and Clayton, S and Reser, JP and Weber, EU and Gifford, R and Howard, GS}, title = {Psychology's contributions to understanding and addressing global climate change.}, journal = {The American psychologist}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {241-250}, doi = {10.1037/a0023220}, pmid = {21553950}, issn = {1935-990X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environment ; Humans ; Interdisciplinary Studies ; *Psychology ; *Science ; }, abstract = {Global climate change poses one of the greatest challenges facing humanity in this century. This article, which introduces the American Psychologist special issue on global climate change, follows from the report of the American Psychological Association Task Force on the Interface Between Psychology and Global Climate Change. In this article, we place psychological dimensions of climate change within the broader context of human dimensions of climate change by addressing (a) human causes of, consequences of, and responses (adaptation and mitigation) to climate change and (b) the links between these aspects of climate change and cognitive, affective, motivational, interpersonal, and organizational responses and processes. Characteristics of psychology that cross content domains and that make the field well suited for providing an understanding of climate change and addressing its challenges are highlighted. We also consider ethical imperatives for psychologists' involvement and provide suggestions for ways to increase psychologists' contribution to the science of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21553596, year = {2010}, author = {Evans, JW}, title = {The immediate challenge of climate change: reducing impacts on the poorest communities in the poorest countries.}, journal = {Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society}, volume = {154}, number = {2}, pages = {183-191}, pmid = {21553596}, issn = {0003-049X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Developing Countries ; Economics ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Global Health ; Humans ; Poverty Areas ; }, }
@article {pmid21553595, year = {2010}, author = {Cohen, JE}, title = {Population and climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society}, volume = {154}, number = {2}, pages = {158-182}, pmid = {21553595}, issn = {0003-049X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Educational Status ; Fertility ; Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Population ; Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; Poverty ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {To review, the four broad dimensions of any complex human problem, including climate change, are the human population, economics, culture, and environment. These dimensions interact with one another in all directions and on many time-scales. From 2010 to 2050, the human population is likely to grow bigger, more slowly, older, and more urban. It is projected that by 2050 more than 2.6 billion people (almost 94% of global urban growth) will be added to the urban population in today's developing countries. That works out to 1.26 million additional urban people in today's developing countries every week from 2010 to 2050. Humans alter the climate by emitting greenhouse gases, by altering planetary albedo, and by altering atmospheric components. Between 1900 and 2000, humans' emissions of carbon into the atmosphere increased fifteenfold, while the numbers of people increased less than fourfold. Population growth alone, with constant rates of emissions per person, could not account for the increase in the carbon emissions to the atmosphere. The world economy grew sixteenfold in the twentieth century, accompanied by enormous increases in the burning of gas, oil, and coal. In the last quarter of the twentieth century, population grew much faster in developing countries than in high-income countries, and, compared with population growth, the growth of carbon emissions to the atmosphere was even faster in developing countries than in high-income countries. The ratio of emissions-to-population growth rates was 2.8 in developing countries compared with 1.6 in high-income countries. Emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are influenced by the sizes and density of settlements, the sizes of households, and the ages of householders. Between 2010 and 2050, these demographic factors are anticipated to change substantially. Therefore demography will play a substantial role in the dynamics of climate changes. Climate changes affect many aspects of the living environment, including human settlements, food production, and diseases. These changes will affect poor people more severely than rich, and poor nations more severely than rich. Yet not enough is known to predict quantitatively many details that will matter enormously to future people and other species. Three kinds of responses are related to demographic issues that affect climate changes: universal secondary education, voluntary contraception and maternal health services, and smarter urban design and construction. These responses may prevent, reduce, or ameliorate the impacts of climate changes. They are as relevant to rich countries as to poor, though in ways that are as different as are rich countries and poor. They are desirable in their own right because they improve the lives of the people they affect directly; and they are desirable for their beneficial effects on the larger society and globe. They are effective responses to the twin challenges of reducing poverty and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid21553594, year = {2010}, author = {Thompson, LG}, title = {Understanding global climate change: paleoclimate perspective from the world's highest mountains.}, journal = {Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society}, volume = {154}, number = {2}, pages = {133-157}, pmid = {21553594}, issn = {0003-049X}, mesh = {Agricultural Irrigation ; *Altitude ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Humans ; *Ice Cover ; *Paleontology ; Power Plants ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Glaciers are among the world's best recorders of, and first responders to, natural and anthropogenic climate change and provide a time perspective for current climatic and environmental variations. Over the last 50 years such records have been recovered from the polar regions as well as low-latitude, high-elevation ice fields. Analyses of these ice cores and of the glaciers from which they have been drilled have yielded three lines of evidence for past and present abrupt climate change: (1) the temperature and precipitation histories recorded in the glaciers as revealed by the climate records extracted from the ice cores; (2) the accelerating loss of the glaciers themselves; and (3) the uncovering of ancient fauna and flora from the margins of the glaciers as a result of their recent melting, thus illustrating the significance of the current ice loss. The current melting of high-altitude, low-latitude ice fields is consistent with model predictions for a vertical amplification of temperature in the tropics. The ongoing rapid retreat of the world's mountain glaciers, as well as the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, is not only contributing to global sea level rise, but also threatening fresh-water supplies in many of the most populous regions. More recently, strong evidence has appeared for the acceleration of the rate of ice loss in the tropics, which especially presents a clear and present danger to water supplies for at-risk populations in South America and Asia. The human response to this issue, however, is not so clear, for although the evidence from both data and models becomes more compelling, the rate of global CO2 emissions continues to accelerate. Climatologically, we are in unfamiliar territory, and the world's ice cover is responding dramatically. The loss of glaciers, which can be viewed as the world's water towers, threatens water resources that are essential for hydroelectric power, crop irrigation, municipal water supplies, and even tourism. As these glaciers are disappearing, we are also losing very valuable paleoclimate archives.}, }
@article {pmid21552552, year = {2011}, author = {Levinton, J and Doall, M and Ralston, D and Starke, A and Allam, B}, title = {Climate change, precipitation and impacts on an estuarine refuge from disease.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {e18849}, pmid = {21552552}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Animal Diseases ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; Ostreidae/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Rain ; Reproduction ; *Rivers ; Salinity ; Survival Analysis ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Oysters play important roles in estuarine ecosystems but have suffered recently due to overfishing, pollution, and habitat loss. A tradeoff between growth rate and disease prevalence as a function of salinity makes the estuarine salinity transition of special concern for oyster survival and restoration. Estuarine salinity varies with discharge, so increases or decreases in precipitation with climate change may shift regions of low salinity and disease refuge away from optimal oyster bottom habitat, negatively impacting reproduction and survival. Temperature is an additional factor for oyster survival, and recent temperature increases have increased vulnerability to disease in higher salinity regions.<br><br>We examined growth, reproduction, and survival of oysters in the New York Harbor-Hudson River region, focusing on a low-salinity refuge in the estuary. Observations were during two years when rainfall was above average and comparable to projected future increases in precipitation in the region and a past period of about 15 years with high precipitation. We found a clear tradeoff between oyster growth and vulnerability to disease. Oysters survived well when exposed to intermediate salinities during two summers (2008, 2010) with moderate discharge conditions. However, increased precipitation and discharge in 2009 reduced salinities in the region with suitable benthic habitat, greatly increasing oyster mortality. To evaluate the estuarine conditions over longer periods, we applied a numerical model of the Hudson to simulate salinities over the past century. Model results suggest that much of the region with suitable benthic habitat that historically had been a low salinity refuge region may be vulnerable to higher mortality under projected increases in precipitation and discharge.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Predicted increases in precipitation in the northeastern United States due to climate change may lower salinities past important thresholds for oyster survival in estuarine regions with appropriate substrate, potentially disrupting metapopulation dynamics and impeding oyster restoration efforts, especially in the Hudson estuary where a large basin constitutes an excellent refuge from disease.}, }
@article {pmid21548285, year = {2011}, author = {Cheng, J and Cheng, JM and Hu, TM}, title = {[Distribution responses of Lespedeza davurica community on Loess Plateau to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {35-40}, pmid = {21548285}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Altitude ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Lespedeza/*classification/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Field survey and position monitoring were conducted from 2000 to 2009 to study the effects of climate change on the distribution and growth of Lespedeza davurica community on Loess Plateau. As affected by air temperature, the appropriate growth region of L. davurica community on the Plateau had an obvious zonal distribution from northwest to southeast. For the distribution of L. davurica community, the suitable air temperature was 7.4 degrees C-10 degrees C, average population density was 13.9 plants x m(-2), and reproductive branch was averagely 11.4 per cluster. As affected by precipitation gradient, the horizontal distribution of L. davurica community changed from a constructive or predominant species in typical grassland region into a companion species in forest steppe region, and then, the community gradually became dominant species. The L. davurica community appeared as an occasional species on the half sunny slope of gullies and valleys and the sand dunes in desert steppe region, and extended gradually from its optimal region with yearly precipitation 300 -500 mm to the region with yearly precipitation 270-600 mm. Also, the L. davurica community extended from its optimal altitude 1100-1700 m to 600-1950 m. Under the background of global climate change, the eco-breadth of L. davurica community expanded gradually.}, }
@article {pmid21546326, year = {2011}, author = {Rocklöv, J and Wilder-Smith, A}, title = {Climate change and vector-borne infections: Comment on "Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections" by Eduardo Massad, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho, Luiz Fernandes Lopez and Daniel Rodrigues da Silva.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {204-5; discussion 206-7}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2011.04.002}, pmid = {21546326}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid21546284, year = {2011}, author = {Fedorowicz, Z and Sequeira-Byron, P and Jagannath, V and Sharif, MO}, title = {Climate change in endodontics: is it time to recycle "garbage in-garbage out" systematic reviews?.}, journal = {Oral surgery, oral medicine, oral pathology, oral radiology, and endodontics}, volume = {112}, number = {4}, pages = {515-517}, doi = {10.1016/j.tripleo.2011.02.022}, pmid = {21546284}, issn = {1528-395X}, mesh = {Dental Research/standards ; Endodontics/*standards ; Evidence-Based Dentistry/standards ; Humans ; Meta-Analysis as Topic ; Research Design/standards ; *Review Literature as Topic ; }, }
@article {pmid21539736, year = {2011}, author = {Sieck, M and Ibisch, PL and Moloney, KA and Jeltsch, F}, title = {Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {12}, pmid = {21539736}, issn = {1472-6785}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research.<br><br>RESULTS: Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.}, }
@article {pmid21537793, year = {2011}, author = {Rodríguez-Morales, AJ}, title = {[Climate change, rainfall, society and disasters in Latin America: relations and needs].}, journal = {Revista peruana de medicina experimental y salud publica}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {165-166}, doi = {10.1590/s1726-46342011000100032}, pmid = {21537793}, issn = {1726-4642}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Latin America ; *Rain ; Social Problems ; }, }
@article {pmid21536905, year = {2011}, author = {Pryor, SC and Barthelmie, RJ}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {20}, pages = {8167-8171}, pmid = {21536905}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Energy-Generating Resources/*standards ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; United States ; *Wind ; }, abstract = {The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the "fuel" is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades.}, }
@article {pmid21535146, year = {2011}, author = {White, JD and Gutzwiller, KJ and Barrow, WC and Johnson-Randall, L and Zygo, L and Swint, P}, title = {Understanding interaction effects of climate change and fire management on bird distributions through combined process and habitat models.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {536-546}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01684.x}, pmid = {21535146}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Desert Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Fires ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Regression Analysis ; Southwestern United States ; }, abstract = {Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species' use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.}, }
@article {pmid21533835, year = {2012}, author = {van de Poel, I and Fahlquist, JN and Doorn, N and Zwart, S and Royakkers, L}, title = {The problem of many hands: climate change as an example.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {49-67}, pmid = {21533835}, issn = {1471-5546}, mesh = {Behavior/*ethics ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Moral Obligations ; }, abstract = {In some situations in which undesirable collective effects occur, it is very hard, if not impossible, to hold any individual reasonably responsible. Such a situation may be referred to as the problem of many hands. In this paper we investigate how the problem of many hands can best be understood and why, and when, it exactly constitutes a problem. After analyzing climate change as an example, we propose to define the problem of many hands as the occurrence of a gap in the distribution of responsibility that may be considered morally problematic. Whether a gap is morally problematic, we suggest, depends on the reasons why responsibility is distributed. This, in turn, depends, at least in part, on the sense of responsibility employed, a main distinction being that between backward-looking and forward-looking responsibility.}, }
@article {pmid21533025, year = {2011}, author = {Clavero, M and Villero, D and Brotons, L}, title = {Climate change or land use dynamics: do we know what climate change indicators indicate?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {e18581}, pmid = {21533025}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and average latitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northern distributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts.}, }
@article {pmid21531749, year = {2011}, author = {Saint-Pierre, S}, title = {Centring radiological protection on today's global challenges in energy, climate change, environment and health--with nuclear energy playing a key role.}, journal = {Radiation protection dosimetry}, volume = {146}, number = {1-3}, pages = {338-342}, doi = {10.1093/rpd/ncr184}, pmid = {21531749}, issn = {1742-3406}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care ; Electricity ; Energy-Generating Resources ; *Environment ; Humans ; International Agencies/*standards ; *Nuclear Energy ; Radiation Protection/*standards ; }, abstract = {The climate change issue includes meeting the growing demand for electricity while reducing the impacts from energy sources. Applying carbon capture and storage technology to fossil fuel energy and increasing renewable energy pose greater challenges than increasing nuclear energy. International Energy Agency's (IEA) electricity demand of 30 000 TWh by 2030 can be met with 10 000 TWh each from renewable, nuclear and fossil fuel energy. However, the ill-imposed very strict control of tiny public exposure to ionising radiation from nuclear energy continues to pose a serious hindrance. Effort needs to be re-balanced to produce an even-handed control of public exposure with emphasis on the most significant sources (i.e. natural background radiation and medical use) and vice versa. The on-going revision of the International Atomic Energy Agency Basic Safety Standards (BSS) provides an opportunity to achieve this internationally so that national regulations can be subsequently remediated. There can be no urgency in a BSS revision that fails to encompass such perspective.}, }
@article {pmid21530934, year = {2011}, author = {López Figueroa, F}, title = {[Climate change and the thinning of the ozone layer: implications for dermatology].}, journal = {Actas dermo-sifiliograficas}, volume = {102}, number = {5}, pages = {311-315}, doi = {10.1016/j.ad.2010.12.006}, pmid = {21530934}, issn = {1578-2190}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Ozone ; Skin Diseases/epidemiology/*etiology ; Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology/*etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid21530403, year = {2011}, author = {Morley, NJ}, title = {Inbred laboratory cultures and natural trematode transmission under climate change.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {27}, number = {7}, pages = {286-287}, doi = {10.1016/j.pt.2011.03.007}, pmid = {21530403}, issn = {1471-5007}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Laboratories ; Research ; Schistosoma mansoni/*physiology ; Schistosomiasis mansoni/parasitology/*transmission ; Trematoda/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid21527699, year = {2011}, author = {Clusella-Trullas, S and Chown, SL}, title = {Comment on "Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches".}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {332}, number = {6029}, pages = {537; author reply 537}, doi = {10.1126/science.1195193}, pmid = {21527699}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Temperature ; Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Forecasting ; *Lizards ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Using a regionally calibrated model, Sinervo et al. (Reports, 14 May 2010, p. 894) predicted potential climate change impacts on lizard populations and estimated that many extinctions are under way. We argue that this model is not sufficient for predicting global losses in lizard species in response to anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21525050, year = {2011}, author = {Chaudhary, P and Bawa, KS}, title = {Local perceptions of climate change validated by scientific evidence in the Himalayas.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {767-770}, pmid = {21525050}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate Change ; India ; Nepal ; }, abstract = {The Himalayas are assumed to be undergoing rapid climate change, with serious environmental, social and economic consequences for more than two billion people. However, data on the extent of climate change or its impact on the region are meagre. Based on local knowledge, we report perceived changes in climate and consequences of such changes for biodiversity and agriculture. Our analyses are based on 250 household interviews administered in 18 villages, and focused group discussions conducted in 10 additional villages in Darjeeling Hills, West Bengal, India and Ilam district of Nepal. There is a widespread feeling that weather is getting warmer, the water sources are drying up, the onset of summer and monsoon has advanced during last 10 years and there is less snow on mountains than before. Local perceptions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity included early budburst and flowering, new agricultural pests and weeds and appearance of mosquitoes. People at high altitudes appear more sensitive to climate change than those at low altitudes. Most local perceptions conform to scientific data. Local knowledge can be rapidly and efficiently gathered using systematic tools. Such knowledge can allow scientists to test specific hypotheses, and policy makers to design mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change, especially in an extraordinarily important part of our world that is experiencing considerable change.}, }
@article {pmid21516892, year = {2011}, author = {Krawchuk, MA and Cumming, SG}, title = {Effects of biotic feedback and harvest management on boreal forest fire activity under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {122-136}, doi = {10.1890/09-2004.1}, pmid = {21516892}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Fires ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Predictions of future fire activity over Canada's boreal forests have primarily been generated from climate data following assumptions that direct effects of weather will stand alone in contributing to changes in burning. However, this assumption needs explicit testing. First, areas recently burned can be less likely to burn again in the near term, and this endogenous regulation suggests the potential for self-limiting, negative biotic feedback to regional climate-driven increases in fire. Second, forest harvest is ongoing, and resulting changes in vegetation structure have been shown to affect fire activity. Consequently, we tested the assumption that fire activity will be driven by changes in fire weather without regulation by biotic feedback or regional harvest-driven changes in vegetation structure in the mixedwood boreal forest of Alberta, Canada, using a simulation experiment that includes the interaction of fire, stand dynamics, climate change, and clear cut harvest management. We found that climate change projected with fire weather indices calculated from the Canadian Regional Climate Model increased fire activity, as expected, and our simulations established evidence that the magnitude of regional increase in fire was sufficient to generate negative feedback to subsequent fire activity. We illustrate a 39% (1.39-fold) increase in fire initiation and 47% (1.47-fold) increase in area burned when climate and stand dynamics were included in simulations, yet 48% (1.48-fold) and 61% (1.61-fold) increases, respectively, when climate was considered alone. Thus, although biotic feedbacks reduced burned area estimates in important ways, they were secondary to the direct effect of climate on fire. We then show that ongoing harvest management in this region changed landscape composition in a way that led to reduced fire activity, even in the context of climate change. Although forest harvesting resulted in decreased regional fire activity when compared to unharvested conditions, forest composition and age structure was shifted substantially, illustrating a trade-off between management goals to minimize fire and conservation goals to emulate natural disturbance.}, }
@article {pmid21516371, year = {2012}, author = {Baum, SD and Haqq-Misra, JD and Karmosky, C}, title = {Climate change: evidence of human causes and arguments for emissions reduction.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {393-410}, doi = {10.1007/s11948-011-9270-6}, pmid = {21516371}, issn = {1471-5546}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {In a recent editorial, Raymond Spier expresses skepticism over claims that climate change is driven by human actions and that humanity should act to avoid climate change. This paper responds to this skepticism as part of a broader review of the science and ethics of climate change. While much remains uncertain about the climate, research indicates that observed temperature increases are human-driven. Although opinions vary regarding what should be done, prominent arguments against action are based on dubious factual and ethical positions. Thus, the skepticisms in the recent editorial are unwarranted. This does not diminish the general merits of skeptical intellectual inquiry.}, }
@article {pmid21512099, year = {2011}, author = {Eastaugh, CS and Pötzelsberger, E and Hasenauer, H}, title = {Assessing the impacts of climate change and nitrogen deposition on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) growth in Austria with BIOME-BGC.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {262-274}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpr033}, pmid = {21512099}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Austria ; Biomass ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Picea/*growth &amp; development/metabolism/physiology ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Soil ; Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {The aim of this paper is to determine whether a detectable impact of climate change is apparent in Austrian forests. In regions of complex terrain such as most of Austria, climatic trends over the past 50 years show marked geographic variability. As climate is one of the key drivers of forest growth, a comparison of growth characteristics between regions with different trends in temperature and precipitation can give insights into the impact of climatic change on forests. This study uses data from several hundred climate recording stations, interpolated to measurement sites of the Austrian National Forest Inventory (NFI). Austria as a whole shows a warming trend over the past 50 years and little overall change in precipitation. The warming trends, however, vary considerably across certain regions and regional precipitation trends vary widely in both directions, which cancel out on the national scale These differences allow the delineation of 'climatic change zones' with internally consistent climatic trends that differ from other zones. This study applies the species-specific adaptation of the biogeochemical model BIOME-BGC to Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) across a range of Austrian climatic change zones, using input data from a number of national databases. The relative influence of extant climate change on forest growth is quantified, and compared with the far greater impact of non-climatic factors. At the national scale, climate change is found to have negligible effect on Norway spruce productivity, due in part to opposing effects at the regional level. The magnitudes of the modeled non-climatic influences on aboveground woody biomass increment increases are consistent with previously reported values of 20-40&amp;emsp14;kg of added stem carbon sequestration per kilogram of additional nitrogen deposition, while climate responses are of a magnitude difficult to detect in NFI data.}, }
@article {pmid21512098, year = {2011}, author = {Abrams, MD}, title = {Adaptations of forest ecosystems to air pollution and climate change.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {258-261}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpr010}, pmid = {21512098}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Air Pollution ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Dehydration ; Photosynthesis ; Trees/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid21511376, year = {2011}, author = {Yu, W and Mengersen, K and Hu, W and Guo, Y and Pan, X and Tong, S}, title = {Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {159}, number = {7}, pages = {1789-1793}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2011.03.039}, pmid = {21511376}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Factors ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Air Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis ; Australia ; Cold Temperature ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Mortality ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 °C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 °C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality.}, }
@article {pmid21509380, year = {2011}, author = {Armitage, JM and Quinn, CL and Wania, F}, title = {Global climate change and contaminants--an overview of opportunities and priorities for modelling the potential implications for long-term human exposure to organic compounds in the Arctic.}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {1532-1546}, doi = {10.1039/c1em10131e}, pmid = {21509380}, issn = {1464-0333}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*analysis/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis/metabolism ; Environmental Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Life Style ; Models, Chemical ; Organic Chemicals/*analysis/metabolism ; }, abstract = {This overview seeks to provide context and insight into the relative importance of different aspects related to global climate change for the exposure of Northern residents to organic contaminants. A key objective is to identify, from the perspective of researchers engaged in contaminant fate, transport and bioaccumulation modelling, the most useful research questions with respect to projecting the long-term trends in human exposure. Monitoring studies, modelling results, the magnitude of projected changes and simplified quantitative approaches are used to inform the discussion. Besides the influence of temperature on contaminant amplification and distribution, accumulation of organic contaminants in the Arctic is expected to be particularly sensitive to the reduction/elimination of sea-ice cover and also changes to the frequency and intensity of precipitation events (most notably for substances that are highly susceptible to precipitation scavenging). Changes to key food-web interactions, in particular the introduction of additional trophic levels, have the potential to exert a relatively high influence on contaminant exposure but the likelihood of such changes is difficult to assess. Similarly, changes in primary productivity and dynamics of organic matter in aquatic systems could be influential for very hydrophobic contaminants, but the magnitude of change that may occur is uncertain. Shifts in the amount and location of chemical use and emissions are key considerations, in particular if substances with relatively low long range transport potential are used in closer proximity to, or even within, the Arctic in the future. Temperature-dependent increases in emissions via (re)volatilization from primary and secondary sources outside the Arctic are also important in this regard. An increased frequency of boreal forest fires has relevance for compounds emitted via biomass burning and revolatilization from soil during/after burns but compound-specific analyses are limited by the availability of reliable emission factors. However, potentially more influential for human exposure than changes to the physical environment are changes in human behaviour. This includes the gradual displacement of traditional food items by imported foods from other regions, driven by prey availability and/or consumer preference, but also the possibility of increased exposure to chemicals used in packaging materials and other consumer products, driven by dietary and lifestyle choices.}, }
@article {pmid21508020, year = {2011}, author = {Luczak, C and Beaugrand, G and Jaffré, M and Lenoir, S}, title = {Climate change impact on Balearic shearwater through a trophic cascade.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {702-705}, pmid = {21508020}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Endangered Species ; Geography ; Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {A recent study showed that a critically endangered migratory predator species, the Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, rapidly expanded northwards in northeast Atlantic waters after the mid-1990s. As a significant positive correlation was found between the long-term changes in the abundance of this seabird and sea temperature around the British Isles, it was hypothesized that the link between the biogeographic shift and temperature occurred through the food web. Here, we test this conjecture and reveal concomitant changes in a regional index of sea temperature, plankton (total calanoid copepod), fish prey (anchovy and sardine) and the Balearic shearwater for the period 1980-2003. All three trophic levels exhibit a significant shift detected between 1994 and 1996. Our findings therefore support the assertion of both a direct and an indirect effect of climate change on the spatial distribution of post-breeding Balearic shearwater through a trophic cascade.}, }
@article {pmid21506979, year = {2011}, author = {Andersen, LK}, title = {Global climate change and its dermatological diseases.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {50}, number = {5}, pages = {601-603}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-4632.2011.05006.x}, pmid = {21506979}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Community Medicine ; Dermatology ; Humans ; Skin Care ; Skin Diseases/*etiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid21506962, year = {2011}, author = {Muller, SA}, title = {Climate change, dermatology and ecosystem services; trends and trade-offs.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {50}, number = {5}, pages = {504-507}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-4632.2011.04929.x}, pmid = {21506962}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Decision Making ; Dermatology/*trends ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Humans ; Skin Diseases/*etiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the defining issues for human well-being in the 21st century. As several dermatological diseases have a high sensitivity to climate and ecologic change, dermatologists will have an increasingly important role in public health affairs. The International Society of Dermatology's (ISD) establishment of a task force to track the impact of climate change on the incidence of dermatologic conditions is an example of scientific monitoring critical to future interdisciplinary adaptation and decision making to improve human well-being.}, }
@article {pmid21496759, year = {2011}, author = {Petticrew, M and McCartney, G}, title = {Using systematic reviews to separate scientific from policy debate relevant to climate change.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {40}, number = {5}, pages = {576-578}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2010.12.022}, pmid = {21496759}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Policy Making ; *Politics ; Public Opinion ; *Review Literature as Topic ; Science/methods ; }, }
@article {pmid21493834, year = {2011}, author = {Mervis, J}, title = {Evolution in the schools. Tennessee House bill opens door to challenges to evolution, climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {332}, number = {6027}, pages = {295}, doi = {10.1126/science.332.6027.295}, pmid = {21493834}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; Biological Science Disciplines/*education ; *Climate Change ; Education/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Religion and Science ; Teaching/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Tennessee ; }, }
@article {pmid21490335, year = {2011}, author = {Ford, JD and Smith, TR and Berrang-Ford, L}, title = {Canadian federal support for climate change and health research compared with the risks posed.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {101}, number = {5}, pages = {814-821}, pmid = {21490335}, issn = {1541-0048}, support = {//Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canada ; }, mesh = {Canada ; Climate Change/*economics ; Financing, Government/*economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Health Priorities ; Health Services Research/*economics ; Humans ; Inuit ; Politics ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {For emerging public health risks such as climate change, the Canadian federal government has a mandate to provide information and resources to protect citizens' health. Research is a key component of this mandate and is essential if Canada is to moderate the health effects of a changing climate. We assessed whether federal support for climate change and health research is consistent with the risks posed. We audited projects receiving federal support between 1999 and 2009, representing an investment of Can$16 million in 105 projects. Although funding has increased in recent years, it remains inadequate, with negligible focus on vulnerable populations, limited research on adaptation, and volatility in funding allocations. A federal strategy to guide research support is overdue.}, }
@article {pmid21489123, year = {2011}, author = {Knudsen, E and Lindén, A and Both, C and Jonzén, N and Pulido, F and Saino, N and Sutherland, WJ and Bach, LA and Coppack, T and Ergon, T and Gienapp, P and Gill, JA and Gordo, O and Hedenström, A and Lehikoinen, E and Marra, PP and Møller, AP and Nilsson, AL and Péron, G and Ranta, E and Rubolini, D and Sparks, TH and Spina, F and Studds, CE and Saether, SA and Tryjanowski, P and Stenseth, NC}, title = {Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {86}, number = {4}, pages = {928-946}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-185X.2011.00179.x}, pmid = {21489123}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well-studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate-change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support ('consensus view') for a claim increased and between-researcher variability in support ('expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies.}, }
@article {pmid21488958, year = {2011}, author = {Geyer, J and Kiefer, I and Kreft, S and Chavez, V and Salafsky, N and Jeltsch, F and Ibisch, PL}, title = {Classification of climate-change-induced stresses on biological diversity.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {708-715}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01676.x}, pmid = {21488958}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; *Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Conservation actions need to account for and be adapted to address changes that will occur under global climate change. The identification of stresses on biological diversity (as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity) is key in the process of adaptive conservation management. We considered any impact of climate change on biological diversity a stress because such an effect represents a change (negative or positive) in key ecological attributes of an ecosystem or parts of it. We applied a systemic approach and a hierarchical framework in a comprehensive classification of stresses to biological diversity that are caused directly by global climate change. Through analyses of 20 conservation sites in 7 countries and a review of the literature, we identified climate-change-induced stresses. We grouped the identified stresses according to 3 levels of biological diversity: stresses that affect individuals and populations, stresses that affect biological communities, and stresses that affect ecosystem structure and function. For each stress category, we differentiated 3 hierarchical levels of stress: stress class (thematic grouping with the coarsest resolution, 8); general stresses (thematic groups of specific stresses, 21); and specific stresses (most detailed definition of stresses, 90). We also compiled an overview of effects of climate change on ecosystem services using the categories of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and 2 additional categories. Our classification may be used to identify key climate-change-related stresses to biological diversity and may assist in the development of appropriate conservation strategies. The classification is in list format, but it accounts for relations among climate-change-induced stresses.}, }
@article {pmid21486720, year = {2011}, author = {Khan, AE and Ireson, A and Kovats, S and Mojumder, SK and Khusru, A and Rahman, A and Vineis, P}, title = {Drinking Water Salinity and Maternal Health in Coastal Bangladesh: Implications of Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {9}, pages = {1328-1332}, pmid = {21486720}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {G0801056B/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Background: Drinking water from natural sources in coastal Bangladesh has become contaminated by varying degrees of salinity due to saltwater intrusion from rising sea levels, cyclone and storm surges and upstream withdrawal of freshwater. Objective: Our objective was to estimate salt intake from drinking water sources and examine environmental factors that may explain a seasonal excess of hypertension in pregnancy. Methods: Water salinity data (1998-2000) for Dacope, in rural coastal Bangladesh, were obtained from the Centre for Environment and Geographic Information System. Information on drinking water sources, 24-hour urine samples and blood pressure were obtained from 343 pregnant Dacope women during the dry season (October 2009 - March 2010). The hospital-based prevalence of hypertension in pregnancy was determined for 969 pregnant women (July 2008 - March 2010). Results: Average estimated sodium intakes from drinking water ranged from 5 to 16 g/day in the dry season, compared to 0.6 - 1.2 g/day in the rainy season. Average daily sodium excretion in urine was 3.4 g/day (range 0.4 - 7.7 g/d). Women who drank shallow tubewell water were more likely to have urine sodium > 100 mmol/d than women who drank rainwater (OR=2.05, 95% CI: 1.11 - 3.80). The annual hospital prevalence of hypertension in pregnancy was higher in the dry season (12.2%, 95% CI: 9.5 - 14.8) than the rainy season (5.1%, 95% CI: 2.91 - 7.26). Conclusions: The estimated salt intake from drinking water in this population exceeded recommended limits. The problem of saline intrusion into drinking water has multiple causes and is likely to be exacerbated by climate change induced sea-level rise.}, }
@article {pmid21481670, year = {2011}, author = {Mwila, MM}, title = {Global warming.}, journal = {JEMS : a journal of emergency medical services}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {16}, doi = {10.1016/S0197-2510(11)70077-8}, pmid = {21481670}, issn = {0197-2510}, mesh = {*Ambulances ; *Global Warming ; *Vehicle Emissions ; }, }
@article {pmid21481487, year = {2011}, author = {Rohr, JR and Dobson, AP and Johnson, PT and Kilpatrick, AM and Paull, SH and Raffel, TR and Ruiz-Moreno, D and Thomas, MB}, title = {Frontiers in climate change-disease research.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, pages = {270-277}, pmid = {21481487}, issn = {1872-8383}, support = {R01 AI090159/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R56 AI069217/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; 1R01AI069217-01/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*parasitology ; Forecasting/*methods ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Humans ; Metabolism/physiology ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {The notion that climate change will generally increase human and wildlife diseases has garnered considerable public attention, but remains controversial and seems inconsistent with the expectation that climate change will also cause parasite extinctions. In this review, we highlight the frontiers in climate change-infectious disease research by reviewing knowledge gaps that make this controversy difficult to resolve. We suggest that forecasts of climate-change impacts on disease can be improved by more interdisciplinary collaborations, better linking of data and models, addressing confounding variables and context dependencies, and applying metabolic theory to host-parasite systems with consideration of community-level interactions and functional traits. Finally, although we emphasize host-parasite interactions, we also highlight the applicability of these points to climate-change effects on species interactions in general.}, }
@article {pmid21479188, year = {2011}, author = {Liu, X and Guo, Z and Ke, Z and Wang, S and Li, Y}, title = {Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {e18429}, pmid = {21479188}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*growth &amp; development ; Astacoidea/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Humans ; *Internationality ; Introduced Species/*trends ; Models, Biological ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders.<br><br>We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes.}, }
@article {pmid21479150, year = {2010}, author = {Fuller, AC and Harhay, MO}, title = {Population Growth, Climate Change and Water Scarcity in the Southwestern United States.}, journal = {American journal of environmental sciences}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {249-252}, pmid = {21479150}, issn = {1553-345X}, support = {T32 AG000177/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; T32 AG000177-21/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {PROBLEM STATEMENT: In a simple economic model, water scarcity arises as a result of an imbalance between the supply of and demand for water sources. Distribution in this setting is the source of numerous conflicts globally. APPROACH: Already, the Southwestern United States (US) suffers from annual drought and long-standing feud over natural water resources. RESULTS: Population growth in the Southwestern United States along with the continued effects of climate change (natural and anthropogenic) predicts a perpetual decline in natural water sources, such as smaller snowpacks, in the coming years. As the increasing number of communities across multiple US states that subsist off of natural water supplies face water shortages with increasing severity, further water conflict will emerge. Such conflicts become especially protracted when the diversion of water from a source of benefit to one community negatively impacts nearby communities of humans and economically vital ecosystems (e.g., marshlands or tributaries). CONCLUSION/RECOMMENDATIONS: The ensuing politics and health effects of these diversions can be complicated and future water policies both domestically and internationally are lacking. To draw attention to and stimulate discussion around the lacking policy discussion domestically, herein we document existing and emerging consequences of watery scarcity in the Southwestern United States and briefly outline past and potential future policy responses.}, }
@article {pmid21474198, year = {2011}, author = {McMahon, SM and Harrison, SP and Armbruster, WS and Bartlein, PJ and Beale, CM and Edwards, ME and Kattge, J and Midgley, G and Morin, X and Prentice, IC}, title = {Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {26}, number = {5}, pages = {249-259}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2011.02.012}, pmid = {21474198}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; *Models, Biological ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models.}, }
@article {pmid21473543, year = {2010}, author = {Slenning, BD}, title = {One health and climate change: linking environmental and animal health to human health.}, journal = {North Carolina medical journal}, volume = {71}, number = {5}, pages = {434-437}, pmid = {21473543}, issn = {0029-2559}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environment ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid21467102, year = {2011}, author = {Jarvis, L and Montgomery, H and Morisetti, N and Gilmore, I}, title = {Climate change, ill health, and conflict.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {342}, number = {}, pages = {d1819}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.d1819}, pmid = {21467102}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Food Supply ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Interprofessional Relations ; *Warfare ; Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid21466552, year = {2011}, author = {García-Carreras, B and Reuman, DC}, title = {An empirical link between the spectral colour of climate and the spectral colour of field populations in the context of climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {80}, number = {5}, pages = {1042-1048}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2011.01833.x}, pmid = {21466552}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecology/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Regression Analysis ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {1. The spectral colour of population dynamics and its causes have attracted much interest. The spectral colour of a time series can be determined from its power spectrum, which shows what proportion of the total variance in the time series occurs at each frequency. A time series with a red spectrum (a negative spectral exponent) is dominated by low-frequency oscillations, and a time series with a blue spectrum (a positive spectral exponent) is dominated by high-frequency oscillations. 2. Both climate variables and population time series are characterised by red spectra, suggesting that a population's environment might be partly responsible for its spectral colour. Laboratory experiments and models have been used to investigate this potential link. However, no study using field data has directly tested whether populations in redder environments are redder. 3. This study uses the Global Population Dynamics Database together with climate data to test for this effect. We found that the spectral exponent of mean summer temperatures correlates positively and significantly with population spectral exponent. 4. We also found that over the last century, temperature climate variables on most continents have become bluer. 5. Although population time series are not long or abundant enough to judge directly whether their spectral colours are changing, our two results taken together suggest that population spectral colour may be affected by the changing spectral colour of climate variables. Population spectral colour has been linked to extinction; we discuss the potential implications of our results for extinction probability.}, }
@article {pmid21465744, year = {2010}, author = {Cooney, CM}, title = {The perception factor: climate change gets personal.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {118}, number = {11}, pages = {A484-9}, pmid = {21465744}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Attitude ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Opinion ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid21464985, year = {2011}, author = {Saupe, EE and Papes, M and Selden, PA and Vetter, RS}, title = {Tracking a medically important spider: climate change, ecological niche modeling, and the brown recluse (Loxosceles reclusa).}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {e17731}, pmid = {21464985}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Models, Biological ; Spiders/*physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae), causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses.}, }
@article {pmid21464077, year = {2011}, author = {Costello, A and Maslin, M and Montgomery, H and Johnson, AM and Ekins, P}, title = {Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {369}, number = {1942}, pages = {1866-1882}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2011.0007}, pmid = {21464077}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint/economics ; *Climate Change/economics ; Denial, Psychological ; Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Food Supply ; *Global Health ; Global Warming/economics ; Greenhouse Effect/economics ; Health Promotion ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Growth ; Public Health ; Public Policy/economics ; Water Supply ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The health effects of climate change have had relatively little attention from climate scientists and governments. Climate change will be a major threat to population health in the current century through its potential effects on communicable disease, heat stress, food and water security, extreme weather events, vulnerable shelter and population migration. This paper addresses three health-sector strategies to manage the health effects of climate change-promotion of mitigation, tackling the pathways that lead to ill-health and strengthening health systems. Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is affordable, and low-carbon technologies are available now or will be in the near future. Pathways to ill-health can be managed through better information, poverty reduction, technological innovation, social and cultural change and greater coordination of national and international institutions. Strengthening health systems requires increased investment in order to provide effective public health responses to climate-induced threats to health, equitable treatment of illness, promotion of low-carbon lifestyles and renewable energy solutions within health facilities. Mitigation and adaptation strategies will produce substantial benefits for health, such as reductions in obesity and heart disease, diabetes, stress and depression, pneumonia and asthma, as well as potential cost savings within the health sector. The case for mitigating climate change by reducing GHGs is overwhelming. The need to build population resilience to the global health threat from already unavoidable climate change is real and urgent. Action must not be delayed by contrarians, nor by catastrophic fatalists who say it is all too late.}, }
@article {pmid21464070, year = {2011}, author = {Satterthwaite, D}, title = {How urban societies can adapt to resource shortage and climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {369}, number = {1942}, pages = {1762-1783}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0350}, pmid = {21464070}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Social Environment ; Urban Health ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {With more than half the world's population now living in urban areas and with much of the world still urbanizing, there are concerns that urbanization is a key driver of unsustainable resource demands. Urbanization also appears to contribute to ever-growing levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Meanwhile, in much of Africa and Asia and many nations in Latin America and the Caribbean, urbanization has long outstripped local governments' capacities or willingness to act as can be seen in the high proportion of the urban population living in poor quality, overcrowded, illegal housing lacking provision for water, sanitation, drainage, healthcare and schools. But there is good evidence that urban areas can combine high living standards with relatively low GHG emissions and lower resource demands. This paper draws on some examples of this and considers what these imply for urban policies in a resource-constrained world. These suggest that cities can allow high living standards to be combined with levels of GHG emissions that are much lower than those that are common in affluent cities today. This can be achieved not with an over-extended optimism on what new technologies can bring but mostly by a wider application of what already has been shown to work.}, }
@article {pmid21464069, year = {2011}, author = {Newbery, D}, title = {Oil shortages, climate change and collective action.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {369}, number = {1942}, pages = {1748-1761}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0352}, pmid = {21464069}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Carbon Footprint/economics ; Climate Change/*economics ; Conservation of Energy Resources/economics ; Fossil Fuels/*economics ; Game Theory ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Models, Economic ; }, abstract = {Concerns over future oil scarcity might not be so worrying but for the high carbon content of substitutes, and the limited capacity of the atmosphere to absorb additional CO(2) from burning fuel. The paper argues that the tools of economics are helpful in understanding some of the key issues in pricing fossil fuels, the extent to which pricing can be left to markets, the need for, and design of, international agreements on corrective carbon pricing, and the potential Prisoners' Dilemma in reaching such agreements, partly mitigated in the case of oil by current taxes and the probable incidence of carbon taxes on the oil price. The 'Green Paradox', in which carbon pricing exacerbates climate change, is theoretically possible, but empirically unlikely.}, }
@article {pmid21464067, year = {2011}, author = {Yacoub, S and Kotit, S and Yacoub, MH}, title = {Disease appearance and evolution against a background of climate change and reduced resources.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {369}, number = {1942}, pages = {1719-1729}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2011.0013}, pmid = {21464067}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; Chagas Disease/etiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Dengue/etiology ; Disease/*etiology ; Global Health ; Humans ; Malaria/etiology ; Rheumatic Heart Disease/etiology ; Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant/etiology ; }, abstract = {Global health continues to face increasing challenges owing to a variety of reasons that include the almost constant changes in disease appearance and evolution. Most, but not all, of these changes affect low-income countries and are influenced by climate change. Tracking the recent and anticipated changes in the demographics and global distribution of these changes is essential for evolving effective new methods for dealing with the problems. The recent recognition by the United Nations of the importance of non-communicable diseases is a major positive step. For the sake of this paper, the following diseases were chosen: dengue and malaria, to highlight the role of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Drug-resistant tuberculosis illustrates the role of globalization and reduced resources on disease evolution. The continuing rise in cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, particularly in resource-poor countries is largely attributed to lack of preventive and therapeutic measures against such conditions as hypertension, diabetes, atherosclerosis and congenital heart disease as well as neglected diseases, of which Chagas and rheumatic heart disease will be discussed further.}, }
@article {pmid21463300, year = {2011}, author = {Urban, MC and Holt, RD and Gilman, SE and Tewksbury, J}, title = {Heating up relations between cold fish: competition modifies responses to climate change.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {80}, number = {3}, pages = {505-507}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2011.01838.x}, pmid = {21463300}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Competitive Behavior ; Fresh Water ; Norway ; *Trout ; }, abstract = {Most predictions about species responses to climate change ignore species interactions. Helland and colleagues (2011) test whether this assumption is valid by evaluating whether ice cover affects competition between brown trout [Salmo trutta (L.)] and Arctic charr [Salvelinus alpines (L.)]. They show that increasing ice cover correlates with lower trout biomass when Arctic charr co-occur, but not in charr's absence. In experiments, charr grew better in the cold, dark environments that typify ice-covered lakes. Decreasing ice cover with warmer winters could mean more trout and fewer charr. More generally, their results provide an excellent example, suggesting that species interactions can strongly modify responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21462751, year = {2011}, author = {Nichols, A and Richardson, J}, title = {Climate change, health and sustainability: a brief survey of primary care trusts in the south west of England.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {131}, number = {2}, pages = {82-84}, doi = {10.1177/1757913910379196}, pmid = {21462751}, issn = {1757-9139}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; England ; Humans ; Organizational Policy ; Primary Health Care/*organization &amp; administration ; *State Medicine ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {With climate change threatening to present real challenges to public health, the relevant UK organizations, such as the NHS, have produced guidelines and action plans to encourage primary care trusts (PCTs) to reduce their carbon emissions and generally function in a more sustainable way. This paper presents the results of a survey designed to assess how successful this initiative has been in one part of the UK, the south west of England. While the results are promising, the PCTs surveyed are aware that commitment and leadership must come from a higher level.}, }
@article {pmid21450778, year = {2011}, author = {Vincent, C and Batalden, P and Davidoff, F}, title = {Multidisciplinary centres for safety and quality improvement: learning from climate change science.}, journal = {BMJ quality &amp; safety}, volume = {20 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl_1}, pages = {i73-8}, pmid = {21450778}, issn = {2044-5423}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Interdisciplinary Communication ; *Learning ; Quality Assurance, Health Care/*organization &amp; administration ; Quality Improvement/*organization &amp; administration ; *Safety Management ; }, abstract = {Effective improvement and research rely on sustained multidisciplinary collaboration, but few examples are available of centres with the broad range of disciplines and practical experience that are needed to sustain long-term improvement in healthcare quality and safety. In a number of respects, the parlous state of the quality and safety of medical care resembles the problem of climate change. Both constitute a profoundly serious man-made threat to the public good which have until recently been both ignored and denied but are increasingly being recognised, taken seriously and acted on. Among the most interesting and important responses to the challenge of climate change has been the creation of Centres of Climate Change in which experts from multiple diverse disciplines are brought together to tackle the problem. Such centres, while science-based, express their vision in solid pragmatic terms and embrace policy, public engagement and education as essential components of that vision. Cross-discipline collaboration has unfortunately not achieved the same effectiveness or visibility in healthcare quality and safety as it has in the area of climate change. The authors argue that there is a need to create multidisciplinary centres in healthcare to accelerate the improvement of safety and quality, and provide the necessary theoretical and empirical foundations. Such centres would draw on disciplines such as epidemiology, statistics and relevant clinical disciplines but equally from psychology, engineering, ergonomics, sociology, economics, organisational development in addition to engaging with patients and citizens and leaders with practical experience of improvement in the field. In this paper, we address some of the pragmatic challenges of creating such centres and consider how the right groups and networks of researchers and practitioners might be assembled.}, }
@article {pmid21459696, year = {2011}, author = {Cooney, CM}, title = {Preparing a people: climate change and public health.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {4}, pages = {A166-71}, pmid = {21459696}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Cooperative Behavior ; Environmental Policy ; Health Planning ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Public Health/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid21459693, year = {2011}, author = {Schmidt, CW}, title = {Black carbon: the dark horse of climate change drivers.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {4}, pages = {A172-5}, pmid = {21459693}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Environmental Policy ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Soot/*analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid21455132, year = {2011}, author = {}, title = {Welcome Nature Climate Change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {471}, number = {7340}, pages = {548}, doi = {10.1038/471548b}, pmid = {21455132}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Warming ; Humans ; Periodicals as Topic/*trends ; Social Sciences ; }, }
@article {pmid21447548, year = {2011}, author = {Blashki, G and Armstrong, G and Berry, HL and Weaver, HJ and Hanna, EG and Bi, P and Harley, D and Spickett, JT}, title = {Preparing health services for climate change in Australia.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {23}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {133S-43}, doi = {10.1177/1010539510395121}, pmid = {21447548}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Health Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Although the implications of climate change for public health continue to be elucidated, we still require much work to guide the development of a comprehensive strategy to underpin the adaptation of the health system. Adaptation will be an evolving process as impacts emerge. The authors aim is to focus on the responses of the Australian health system to health risks from climate change, and in particular how best to prepare health services for predicted health risks from heat waves, bushfires, infectious diseases, diminished air quality, and the mental health impacts of climate change. In addition, the authors aim to provide some general principles for health system adaptation to climate change that may be applicable beyond the Australian setting. They present some guiding principles for preparing health systems and also overview some specific preparatory activities in relation to personnel, infrastructure, and coordination. Increases in extreme weather-related events superimposed on health effects arising from a gradually changing climate will place additional burdens on the health system and challenge existing capacity. Key characteristics of a climate change-prepared health system are that it should be flexible, strategically allocated, and robust. Long-term planning will also require close collaboration with the nonhealth sectors as part of a nationwide adaptive response.}, }
@article {pmid21447547, year = {2011}, author = {Berry, HL and Hogan, A and Owen, J and Rickwood, D and Fragar, L}, title = {Climate change and farmers' mental health: risks and responses.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {23}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {119S-32}, doi = {10.1177/1010539510392556}, pmid = {21447547}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Agricultural Workers' Diseases/*epidemiology/*psychology ; Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Humans ; Mental Disorders/*epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Rural Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is exacerbating climate variability, evident in more frequent and severe weather-related disasters, such as droughts, fires, and floods. Most of what is known about the possible effects of climate change on rural mental health relates to prolonged drought. But though drought is known to be a disproportionate and general stressor, evidence is mixed and inconclusive. Over time, like drought other weather-related disasters may erode the social and economic bases on which farming communities depend. Rural vulnerability to mental health problems is greatly increased by socioeconomic disadvantage. Related factors may compound this, such as reduced access to health services as communities decline and a "stoical" culture that inhibits help-seeking. Australia has the world's most variable climate and is a major global agricultural producer. Yet despite Australia's (and, especially, rural communities') dependence on farmers' well-being and success, there is very little-and inconclusive-quantitative evidence about farmers' mental health. The aim of this review is to consider, with a view to informing other countries, how climate change and related factors may affect farmers' mental health in Australia. That information is a prerequisite to identifying, selecting, and evaluating adaptive strategies, to lessen the risks of adverse mental health outcomes. The authors identify the need for a systematic epidemiology of the mental health of farmers facing increasing climate change- related weather adversity.}, }
@article {pmid21447546, year = {2011}, author = {Edwards, F and Dixon, J and Friel, S and Hall, G and Larsen, K and Lockie, S and Wood, B and Lawrence, M and Hanigan, I and Hogan, A and Hattersley, L}, title = {Climate change adaptation at the intersection of food and health.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {23}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {91S-104}, doi = {10.1177/1010539510392361}, pmid = {21447546}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Nutritious, safe, affordable, and enjoyable food is a fundamental prerequisite for health. As a nation, Australia is currently classified as food secure with the domestic production exceeding domestic consumption of most major food groups. The domestic system is almost self-sufficient in terms of nutritious plant foods, although these foods have seen steady higher price increases relative to other foods, with nutrition equity implications. However, the viability of Australia's food security sits counter to the continued presence of a stable and supportive climate. This article reviews the current state of science concerning the interface between climate change, food systems, and human health to reveal the key issues that must be addressed if Australia is to advance human health and sustainable food systems under a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid21447545, year = {2011}, author = {Goater, S and Cook, A and Hogan, A and Mengersen, K and Hieatt, A and Weinstein, P}, title = {Strategies to strengthen public health inputs to water policy in response to climate change: an Australian perspective.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {23}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {80S-90}, doi = {10.1177/1010539510397038}, pmid = {21447545}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; Policy Making ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; Residence Characteristics ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Under current climate change projections, the capacity to provide safe drinking water to Australian communities will be challenged. Part of this challenge is the lack of an adaptive governance strategy that transcends jurisdictional boundaries to support integrated policy making, regulation, or infrastructural adaptation. Consequently, some water-related health hazards may not be adequately captured or forecast under existing water resource management policies to ensure safe water supplies. Given the high degree of spatial and temporal variability in climate conditions experienced by Australian communities, new strategies for national health planning and prioritization for safe water supplies are warranted. The challenges facing public health in Australia will be to develop flexible and robust governance strategies that strengthen public health input to existing water policy, regulation, and surveillance infrastructure through proactive risk planning, adopting new technologies, and intersectoral collaborations. The proposed approach could assist policy makers avert or minimize risk to communities arising from changes in climate and water provisions both in Australia and in the wider Asia Pacific region.}, }
@article {pmid21447544, year = {2011}, author = {Harley, D and Bi, P and Hall, G and Swaminathan, A and Tong, S and Williams, C}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases in Australia: future prospects, adaptation options, and research priorities.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {23}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {54S-66}, doi = {10.1177/1010539510391660}, pmid = {21447544}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; Biomedical Research ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Health Policy ; Health Priorities ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change will have significant and diverse impacts on human health. These impacts will include changes in infectious disease incidence. In this article, the authors review the current situation and potential future climate change impacts for respiratory, diarrheal, and vector-borne diseases in Australia. Based on this review, the authors suggest adaptive strategies within the health sector and also recommend future research priorities.}, }
@article {pmid21447543, year = {2011}, author = {Spickett, JT and Brown, HL and Rumchev, K}, title = {Climate change and air quality: the potential impact on health.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {23}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {37S-45}, doi = {10.1177/1010539511398114}, pmid = {21447543}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {The objectives of the study were to: consider the potential health impacts in Australia and the region arising from changes in air quality occurring as a result of climate change, identify vulnerable groups and potential adaptation measures and discuss the implications for policy. The authors provide an overview of international and national information on the potential health impacts of air pollutants that would most likely be affected by climate change and a discussion of the policy implications. Climate change is likely to have an impact on levels of ozone and possibly particulates, both of which are associated with increased mortality and a range of respiratory and cardiovascular health effects. One of the implications is therefore a possible increase in adverse health effects due to air pollutants. Regional health impact assessments of climate change should address the issue of air quality, consider current coping capacity, and determine the need for adaptation, particularly for vulnerable groups. Implications for policy include the need for improved modeling and forecasting of air pollutant levels, increased efforts to reduce emissions of air pollutants, continued monitoring of air pollutant levels, and monitoring of the incidence of health effects associated with air pollutants in all countries in the region.}, }
@article {pmid21447542, year = {2011}, author = {Hanna, EG and Spickett, JT}, title = {Climate change and human health: building Australia's adaptation capacity.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {23}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {7S-13}, doi = {10.1177/1010539510391775}, pmid = {21447542}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid21447541, year = {2011}, author = {Binns, C and Low, WY}, title = {Climate change: the greatest equity issue in public health.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {23}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {5S-6}, doi = {10.1177/1010539510391776}, pmid = {21447541}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid21451456, year = {2011}, author = {Fakheri, RJ and Goldfarb, DS}, title = {Ambient temperature as a contributor to kidney stone formation: implications of global warming.}, journal = {Kidney international}, volume = {79}, number = {11}, pages = {1178-1185}, doi = {10.1038/ki.2011.76}, pmid = {21451456}, issn = {1523-1755}, mesh = {Emigration and Immigration ; Evidence-Based Medicine ; Female ; *Global Warming ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Kidney Calculi/epidemiology/*etiology ; Male ; Prevalence ; Residence Characteristics ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Nephrolithiasis is a common disease across the world that is becoming more prevalent. Although the underlying cause for most stones is not known, a body of literature suggests a role of heat and climate as significant risk factors for lithogenesis. Recently, estimates from computer models predicted up to a 10% increase in the prevalence rate in the next half century secondary to the effects of global warming, with a coinciding 25% increase in health-care expenditures. Our aim here is to critically review the medical literature relating stones to ambient temperature. We have categorized the body of evidence by methodology, consisting of comparisons between geographic regions, comparisons over time, and comparisons between people in specialized environments. Although most studies are confounded by other factors like sunlight exposure and regional variation in diet that share some contribution, it appears that heat does play a role in pathogenesis in certain populations. Notably, the role of heat is much greater in men than in women. We also hypothesize that the role of a significant human migration (from rural areas to warmer, urban locales beginning in the last century and projected to continue) may have a greater impact than global warming on the observed worldwide increasing prevalence rate of nephrolithiasis. At this time the limited data available cannot substantiate this proposed mechanism but further studies to investigate this effect are warranted.}, }
@article {pmid21448294, year = {2011}, author = {Neuwald, JL and Valenzuela, N}, title = {The lesser known challenge of climate change: thermal variance and sex-reversal in vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {e18117}, pmid = {21448294}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Embryo, Nonmammalian/physiology ; Female ; Male ; Ovum/physiology ; Sex Determination Processes/*physiology ; Sex Ratio ; Survival Analysis ; *Temperature ; Turtles/embryology/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to disrupt biological systems. Particularly susceptible are species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), as in many reptiles. While the potentially devastating effect of rising mean temperatures on sex ratios in TSD species is appreciated, the consequences of increased thermal variance predicted to accompany climate change remain obscure. Surprisingly, no study has tested if the effect of thermal variance around high-temperatures (which are particularly relevant given climate change predictions) has the same or opposite effects as around lower temperatures. Here we show that sex ratios of the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) were reversed as fluctuations increased around low and high unisexual mean-temperatures. Unexpectedly, the developmental and sexual responses around female-producing temperatures were decoupled in a more complex manner than around male-producing values. Our novel observations are not fully explained by existing ecological models of development and sex determination, and provide strong evidence that thermal fluctuations are critical for shaping the biological outcomes of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21447141, year = {2011}, author = {Araújo, MB and Alagador, D and Cabeza, M and Nogués-Bravo, D and Thuiller, W}, title = {Climate change threatens European conservation areas.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {484-492}, pmid = {21447141}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Europe ; *Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; }, abstract = {Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P < 0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk.}, }
@article {pmid21446727, year = {2011}, author = {Whitman, T and Nicholson, CF and Torres, D and Lehmann, J}, title = {Climate change impact of biochar cook stoves in western Kenyan farm households: system dynamics model analysis.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {45}, number = {8}, pages = {3687-3694}, doi = {10.1021/es103301k}, pmid = {21446727}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Footprint/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Monoxide/analysis ; Charcoal/*analysis ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Cooking/*instrumentation ; Environmental Monitoring ; Housing/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Kenya ; Models, Chemical ; Systems Analysis ; }, abstract = {Cook stoves that produce biochar as well as heat for cooking could help mitigate indoor air pollution from cooking fires and could enhance local soils, while their potential reductions in carbon (C) emissions and increases in soil C sequestration could offer access to C market financing. We use system dynamics modeling to (i) investigate the climate change impact of prototype and refined biochar-producing pyrolytic cook stoves and improved combustion cook stoves in comparison to conventional cook stoves; (ii) assess the relative sensitivity of the stoves' climate change impacts to key parameters; and (iii) quantify the effects of different climate change impact accounting decisions. Simulated reductions in mean greenhouse gas (GHG) impact from a traditional, 3-stone cook stove baseline are 3.50 tCO(2)e/household/year for the improved combustion stove and 3.69-4.33 tCO(2)e/household/year for the pyrolytic stoves, of which biochar directly accounts for 26-42%. The magnitude of these reductions is about 2-5 times more sensitive to baseline wood fuel use and the fraction of nonrenewable biomass (fNRB) of off-farm wood that is used as fuel than to soil fertility improvement or stability of biochar. Improved cookstoves with higher wood demand are less sensitive to changes in baseline fuel use and rely on biochar for a greater proportion of their reductions.}, }
@article {pmid21444797, year = {2011}, author = {McDonald, RI and Green, P and Balk, D and Fekete, BM and Revenga, C and Todd, M and Montgomery, M}, title = {Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {15}, pages = {6312-6317}, pmid = {21444797}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {R21 HD054846/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Fresh Water ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; *Urban Population ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as India's Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations.}, }
@article {pmid21443017, year = {2010}, author = {Wang, QW and Yu, DP and Dai, LM and Zhou, L and Zhou, WM and Qi, G and Qi, L and Ye, YJ}, title = {[Research progress in water use efficiency of plants under global climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {12}, pages = {3255-3265}, pmid = {21443017}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plant Development ; Plant Transpiration ; Plants/*metabolism ; Soil/analysis ; Water/*metabolism ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is one of the most concerned environmental problems in the world since the 1980s, giving significant effects on the plant productivity and the water transport and use patterns. These effects would be reflected in the water use efficiency (WUE) of individual plants, communities, and ecosystems, and ultimately, in the vegetation distribution pattern, species composition, and ecosystem structure. To study the WUE of plants would help to the understanding and forecasting of the responses of terrestrial vegetation to global climate change, and to the adoption of adaptive strategies. This paper introduced the concept of plant WUE and the corresponding measurement techniques at the scales of leaf, individual plant, community, and ecosystem, and reviewed the research progress in the effects of important climatic factors such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation pattern, nitrogen deposition, and their combination on the plant WUE, as well as the variation characteristics of plant WUE and the adaptive survival strategies of plants under different site conditions. Some problems related to plant WUE research were pointed out, and the future research directions in the context of global climate change were prospected.}, }
@article {pmid21440841, year = {2011}, author = {Yan, S and Wu, G}, title = {Possible impact of global warming on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza a viruses.}, journal = {Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {62-67}, doi = {10.3967/0895-3988.2011.01.008}, pmid = {21440841}, issn = {0895-3988}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; *Global Warming ; Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus/*genetics ; Influenza A virus/*genetics ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses, because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world.<br><br>METHODS: 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time-series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures, to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point-to-point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species.<br><br>RESULTS: The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses.}, }
@article {pmid21440303, year = {2012}, author = {Kan, H and Chen, R and Tong, S}, title = {Ambient air pollution, climate change, and population health in China.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {42}, number = {}, pages = {10-19}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2011.03.003}, pmid = {21440303}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Automobiles/statistics &amp; numerical data ; China ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Developing Countries ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fossil Fuels/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Mortality/trends ; Weather ; }, abstract = {As the largest developing country, China has been changing rapidly over the last three decades and its economic expansion is largely driven by the use of fossil fuels, which leads to a dramatic increase in emissions of both ambient air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs). China is now facing the worst air pollution problem in the world, and is also the largest emitter of carbon dioxide. A number of epidemiological studies on air pollution and population health have been conducted in China, using time-series, case-crossover, cross-sectional, cohort, panel or intervention designs. The increased health risks observed among Chinese population are somewhat lower in magnitude, per amount of pollution, than the risks found in developed countries. However, the importance of these increased health risks is greater than that in North America or Europe, because the levels of air pollution in China are very high in general and Chinese population accounts for more than one fourth of the world's totals. Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that climate change has already affected human health directly and indirectly in China, including mortality from extreme weather events; changes in air and water quality; and changes in the ecology of infectious diseases. If China acts to reduce the combustion of fossil fuels and the resultant air pollution, it will reap not only the health benefits associated with improvement of air quality but also the reduced GHG emissions. Consideration of the health impact of air pollution and climate change can help the Chinese government move forward towards sustainable development with appropriate urgency.}, }
@article {pmid21436497, year = {2011}, author = {Vineis, P}, title = {[Food and climate change].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {53-54}, pmid = {21436497}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Bangladesh ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Diet ; Droughts ; *Food Supply ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; Humans ; Morbidity/trends ; Obesity/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid21432984, year = {2011}, author = {Gustafson, DI}, title = {Climate change: a crop protection challenge for the twenty-first century.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {67}, number = {6}, pages = {691-696}, doi = {10.1002/ps.2109}, pmid = {21432984}, issn = {1526-4998}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods/trends ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Environment ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Convincing data now show that temperatures are increasing, and that changing precipitation patterns are already affecting agriculture. Predicted future impacts vary by region, but all are projected to suffer productivity declines by the late twenty-first century unless successful mitigation measures are implemented soon. Exacerbating the climate change challenge, doubling of overall crop productivity will be required by mid-century. Clearly, crop protection will become increasingly difficult as higher-yielding varieties present a larger and more tempting target to all pests, and the pests themselves extend their ranges poleward and into other new geographies owing to reduced winter kill and longer growing seasons. Fortunately, good progress on enhancing crop protection technology to meet these challenges is already being made, but the scope of this climatic provocation is such that complacency is not an option. Increased investment into new technologies and adoption of new agricultural practices with improved adaptive and mitigation potential are both essential.}, }
@article {pmid21430770, year = {2011}, author = {Quaas, J}, title = {Global warming: The soot factor.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {471}, number = {7339}, pages = {456-457}, pmid = {21430770}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Absorption ; Aerosols/analysis/chemistry/radiation effects ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Biofuels ; Color ; Fossil Fuels ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Human Activities ; Soot/adverse effects/*analysis/radiation effects ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid21429927, year = {2011}, author = {Senapathi, D and Nicoll, MA and Teplitsky, C and Jones, CG and Norris, K}, title = {Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {278}, number = {1722}, pages = {3184-3190}, pmid = {21429927}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Falconiformes/*physiology ; Fertility/physiology ; Mauritius ; Models, Biological ; Observation ; Rain ; Reproduction/*physiology ; *Seasons ; Stochastic Processes ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.}, }
@article {pmid21429911, year = {2011}, author = {Godet, L and Jaffré, M and Devictor, V}, title = {Waders in winter: long-term changes of migratory bird assemblages facing climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {714-717}, pmid = {21429911}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; }, abstract = {Effects of climate change on species occupying distinct areas during their life cycle are still unclear. Moreover, although effects of climate change have widely been studied at the species level, less is known about community responses. Here, we test whether and how the composition of wader (Charadrii) assemblages, breeding in high latitude and wintering from Europe to Africa, is affected by climate change over 33 years. We calculated the temporal trend in the community temperature index (CTI), which measures the balance between cold and hot dwellers present in species assemblages. We found a steep increase in the CTI, which reflects a profound change in assemblage composition in response to recent climate change. This study provides, to our knowledge, the first evidence of a strong community response of migratory species to climate change in their wintering areas.}, }
@article {pmid21423743, year = {2011}, author = {Maibach, EW and Leiserowitz, A and Roser-Renouf, C and Mertz, CK}, title = {Identifying like-minded audiences for global warming public engagement campaigns: an audience segmentation analysis and tool development.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {e17571}, pmid = {21423743}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Adult ; Conservation of Energy Resources/*methods ; Culture ; Data Collection ; Demography ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Politics ; *Public Policy ; *Social Marketing ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Vehicle Emissions/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Achieving national reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will require public support for climate and energy policies and changes in population behaviors. Audience segmentation--a process of identifying coherent groups within a population--can be used to improve the effectiveness of public engagement campaigns.<br><br>In Fall 2008, we conducted a nationally representative survey of American adults (n&#x200a;=&#x200a;2,164) to identify audience segments for global warming public engagement campaigns. By subjecting multiple measures of global warming beliefs, behaviors, policy preferences, and issue engagement to latent class analysis, we identified six distinct segments ranging in size from 7 to 33% of the population. These six segments formed a continuum, from a segment of people who were highly worried, involved and supportive of policy responses (18%), to a segment of people who were completely unconcerned and strongly opposed to policy responses (7%). Three of the segments (totaling 70%) were to varying degrees concerned about global warming and supportive of policy responses, two (totaling 18%) were unsupportive, and one was largely disengaged (12%), having paid little attention to the issue. Certain behaviors and policy preferences varied greatly across these audiences, while others did not. Using discriminant analysis, we subsequently developed 36-item and 15-item instruments that can be used to categorize respondents with 91% and 84% accuracy, respectively.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In late 2008, Americans supported a broad range of policies and personal actions to reduce global warming, although there was wide variation among the six identified audiences. To enhance the impact of campaigns, government agencies, non-profit organizations, and businesses seeking to engage the public can selectively target one or more of these audiences rather than address an undifferentiated general population. Our screening instruments are available to assist in that process.}, }
@article {pmid21421953, year = {2011}, author = {Bell, E}, title = {Readying health services for climate change: a policy framework for regional development.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {101}, number = {5}, pages = {804-813}, pmid = {21421953}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Financing, Government ; *Health Services/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Health Services Research ; Humans ; Physicians/supply &amp; distribution ; Program Development ; Public Health ; *Public Policy ; Role ; }, abstract = {Climate change presents the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. However, many public health leaders feel ill equipped to face the challenges of climate change and have been unable to make climate change a priority in service development. I explore how to achieve a regionally responsive whole-of-systems approach to climate change in the key operational areas of a health service: service governance and culture, service delivery, workforce development, asset management, and financing. The relative neglect of implementation science means that policymakers need to be proactive about sourcing and developing models and processes to make health services ready for climate change. Health research funding agencies should urgently prioritize applied, regionally responsive health services research for a future of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21420554, year = {2011}, author = {, }, title = {Health benefits of policies to mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {377}, number = {9770}, pages = {996}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60386-3}, pmid = {21420554}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Periodicals as Topic ; *Policy Making ; Publishing ; }, }
@article {pmid21420552, year = {2011}, author = {Fears, R and ter Meulen, V}, title = {Health benefits of policies to mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {377}, number = {9770}, pages = {995-996}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60385-1}, pmid = {21420552}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Policy Making ; }, }
@article {pmid21420551, year = {2011}, author = {Duvivier, RJ and Watts, NR and Rukavina, S and Kaduru, CJ}, title = {Doctors talk climate change--students take action.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {377}, number = {9770}, pages = {995}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60384-X}, pmid = {21420551}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Lobbying ; Physician's Role ; Politics ; *Students, Medical ; }, }
@article {pmid21417927, year = {2011}, author = {Gálvez, R and Descalzo, MA and Guerrero, I and Miró, G and Molina, R}, title = {Mapping the current distribution and predicted spread of the leishmaniosis sand fly vector in the madrid region (Spain) based on environmental variables and expected climate change.}, journal = {Vector borne and zoonotic diseases (Larchmont, N.Y.)}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {799-806}, doi = {10.1089/vbz.2010.0109}, pmid = {21417927}, issn = {1557-7759}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Dog Diseases/*parasitology/*transmission ; Dogs ; Geographic Information Systems ; Insect Vectors/*growth &amp; development ; Leishmania infantum ; Leishmaniasis/epidemiology/transmission/*veterinary ; Maps as Topic ; Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Psychodidae/*growth &amp; development ; Regression Analysis ; Spain/epidemiology ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Leishmaniosis caused by Leishmania infantum is a widespread zoonotic disease that is endemic in the Mediterranean basin. Based on prior point abundance data for the two sand fly vectors of leishmaniosis in the Madrid region (Phlebotomus perniciosus and Phlebotomus ariasi), models were constructed to predict the spatial distribution patterns of these vectors. The models were obtained by negative binomial regression of several environmental variables and then used to map vector distributions. To validate the maps, we used serological prevalence data of Leishmania infection in dogs and incidence data were obtained through questionnaires completed by veterinarians in the region. Seropositive dogs and veterinary clinics registering a higher incidence of canine leishmaniosis appeared closer to our modeled vector foci. In the face of climate change, we simulated the future distributions of the sand flies for each third of the 21st century and predicted their spread in the region.}, }
@article {pmid21416081, year = {2011}, author = {Feng, X and Simpson, MJ}, title = {Molecular-level methods for monitoring soil organic matter responses to global climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {1246-1254}, doi = {10.1039/c0em00752h}, pmid = {21416081}, issn = {1464-0333}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Organic Chemicals/chemistry ; Soil/analysis/*chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Soil organic matter (SOM) is one of the most complex natural mixtures on earth. It plays a critical role in many ecosystem functions and is directly responsible for sustaining life on our planet. However, due to its chemical heterogeneity, SOM composition at molecular-level is still not completely clear. Consequently, the response of SOM to global climate change is difficult to predict. Here we highlight applications of two complementary molecular-level methods (biomarkers and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)) for ascertaining SOM responses to various environmental changes. Biomarker methods that measure highly specific molecules determine the source and decomposition stage of SOM components. However, biomarkers only make up a small fraction of SOM components because much of SOM is non-extractable. By comparison, (13)C solid-state NMR allows measurement of SOM in its entirety with little or no pretreatment but suffers from poor resolution (due to overlapping of SOM components) and insensitivity, and thus subtle changes in SOM composition may not always be detected. Alternatively, (1)H solution-state NMR methods offer an added benefit of improved resolution and sensitivity but can only analyze SOM components that are fully soluble (humic type molecules) in an NMR compatible solvent. We discuss how these complementary methods have been employed to monitor SOM responses to: soil warming in a temperate forest, elevated atmospheric CO(2) and nitrogen fertilization in a temperate forest, and permafrost thawing in the Canadian High Arctic. These molecular-level methods allow some novel and important observations of soil dynamics and ecosystem function in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid21415241, year = {2011}, author = {Lewandowsky, S}, title = {Popular consensus: climate change is set to continue.}, journal = {Psychological science}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {460-463}, doi = {10.1177/0956797611402515}, pmid = {21415241}, issn = {1467-9280}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; *Public Opinion ; Temperature ; Western Australia ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Most climate experts agree that human carbon dioxide emissions cause anthropogenic global warming (AGW), reflected in increased global temperatures during every decade since 1970. Nonetheless, some public figures have claimed that AGW stopped in 1998. In a large experiment (N = 200), participants extrapolated global climate data, presented graphically either as share prices or as temperatures. Irrespective of their attitudes toward AGW, and irrespective of presentation format, people judged the trend to be increasing. These results suggest that presentation of climate data can counter claims that AGW has stopped.}, }
@article {pmid21412336, year = {2011}, author = {Sexton, PF and Norris, RD and Wilson, PA and Pälike, H and Westerhold, T and Röhl, U and Bolton, CT and Gibbs, S}, title = {Eocene global warming events driven by ventilation of oceanic dissolved organic carbon.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {471}, number = {7338}, pages = {349-352}, pmid = {21412336}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Carbon Cycle ; Foraminifera/metabolism ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Global Warming/*history ; History, Ancient ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {'Hyperthermals' are intervals of rapid, pronounced global warming known from six episodes within the Palaeocene and Eocene epochs (∼65-34 million years (Myr) ago). The most extreme hyperthermal was the ∼170 thousand year (kyr) interval of 5-7 °C global warming during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56 Myr ago). The PETM is widely attributed to massive release of greenhouse gases from buried sedimentary carbon reservoirs, and other, comparatively modest, hyperthermals have also been linked to the release of sedimentary carbon. Here we show, using new 2.4-Myr-long Eocene deep ocean records, that the comparatively modest hyperthermals are much more numerous than previously documented, paced by the eccentricity of Earth's orbit and have shorter durations (∼40 kyr) and more rapid recovery phases than the PETM. These findings point to the operation of fundamentally different forcing and feedback mechanisms than for the PETM, involving redistribution of carbon among Earth's readily exchangeable surface reservoirs rather than carbon exhumation from, and subsequent burial back into, the sedimentary reservoir. Specifically, we interpret our records to indicate repeated, large-scale releases of dissolved organic carbon (at least 1,600 gigatonnes) from the ocean by ventilation (strengthened oxidation) of the ocean interior. The rapid recovery of the carbon cycle following each Eocene hyperthermal strongly suggests that carbon was re-sequestered by the ocean, rather than the much slower process of silicate rock weathering proposed for the PETM. Our findings suggest that these pronounced climate warming events were driven not by repeated releases of carbon from buried sedimentary sources, but, rather, by patterns of surficial carbon redistribution familiar from younger intervals of Earth history.}, }
@article {pmid21412082, year = {2011}, author = {Bernstein, AS and Myers, SS}, title = {Climate change and children's health.}, journal = {Current opinion in pediatrics}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {221-226}, doi = {10.1097/MOP.0b013e3283444c89}, pmid = {21412082}, issn = {1531-698X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Animals ; Child ; *Child Welfare ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/transmission ; Disease Vectors ; Dysentery/etiology ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/etiology ; Water Cycle ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To present the latest data that demonstrate how climate change affects children's health and to identify the principal ways in which climate change puts children's health at risk.<br><br>RECENT FINDINGS: Data continue to emerge that further implicate climate change as contributing to health burdens in children. Climate models have become even more sophisticated and consistently forecast that greenhouse gas emissions will lead to higher mean temperatures that promote more intense storms and droughts, both of which have profound implications for child health. Recent climate models shed light upon the spread of vector-borne disease, including Lyme disease in North America and malaria in Africa. Modeling studies have found that conditions conducive to forest fires, which generate harmful air pollutants and damage agriculture, are likely to become more prevalent in this century due to the effects of greenhouse gases added to earth's atmosphere.<br><br>SUMMARY: Through many pathways, and in particular via placing additional stress upon the availability of food, clean air, and clean water and by potentially expanding the burden of disease from certain vector-borne diseases, climate change represents a major threat to child health. Pediatricians have already seen and will increasingly see the adverse health effects of climate change in their practices. Because of this, and many other reasons, pediatricians have a unique capacity to help resolve the climate change problem.}, }
@article {pmid21411178, year = {2011}, author = {Thomas, CD}, title = {Translocation of species, climate change, and the end of trying to recreate past ecological communities.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {26}, number = {5}, pages = {216-221}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2011.02.006}, pmid = {21411178}, issn = {1872-8383}, mesh = {*Biota ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environment ; Extinction, Biological ; }, abstract = {Many of the species at greatest risk of extinction from anthropogenic climate change are narrow endemics that face insurmountable dispersal barriers. In this review, I argue that the only viable option to maintain populations of these species in the wild is to translocate them to other locations where the climate is suitable. Risks of extinction to native species in destination areas are small, provided that translocations take place within the same broad geographic region and that the destinations lack local endemics. Biological communities in these areas are in the process of receiving many hundreds of other immigrant species as a result of climate change; ensuring that some of the 'new' inhabitants are climate-endangered species could reduce the net rate of extinction.}, }
@article {pmid21410532, year = {2011}, author = {Ando, AW and Hannah, L}, title = {Lessons from finance for new land-conservation strategies given climate-change uncertainty.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {412-414}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01648.x}, pmid = {21410532}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/*methods ; Decision Making ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid21406244, year = {2011}, author = {Folguera, G and Bastías, DA and Caers, J and Rojas, JM and Piulachs, MD and Bellés, X and Bozinovic, F}, title = {An experimental test of the role of environmental temperature variability on ectotherm molecular, physiological and life-history traits: implications for global warming.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {159}, number = {3}, pages = {242-246}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2011.03.002}, pmid = {21406244}, issn = {1531-4332}, mesh = {Animals ; *Body Temperature Regulation ; *Environment ; *Global Warming ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity; one of the most important effects is the increase in the mean earth surface temperature. However, another but poorly studied main characteristic of global change appears to be an increase in temperature variability. Most of the current analyses of global change have focused on mean values, paying less attention to the role of the fluctuations of environmental variables. We experimentally tested the effects of environmental temperature variability on characteristics associated to the fitness (body mass balance, growth rate, and survival), metabolic rate (VCO(2)) and molecular traits (heat shock protein expression, Hsp70), in an ectotherm, the terrestrial woodlouse Porcellio laevis. Our general hypotheses are that higher values of thermal amplitude may directly affect life-history traits, increasing metabolic cost and stress responses. At first, results supported our hypotheses showing a diversity of responses among characters to the experimental thermal treatments. We emphasize that knowledge about the cellular and physiological mechanisms by which animals cope with environmental changes is essential to understand the impact of mean climatic change and variability. Also, we consider that the studies that only incorporate only mean temperatures to predict the life-history, ecological and evolutionary impact of global temperature changes present important problems to predict the diversity of responses of the organism. This is because the analysis ignores the complexity and details of the molecular and physiological processes by which animals cope with environmental variability, as well as the life-history and demographic consequences of such variability.}, }
@article {pmid21406222, year = {2011}, author = {Kang, JX}, title = {Omega-3: a link between global climate change and human health.}, journal = {Biotechnology advances}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {388-390}, pmid = {21406222}, issn = {1873-1899}, support = {R01 CA113605/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; R01 CA113605-04/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; CA113605/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Fatty Acids, Omega-3/*analysis ; *Health ; Humans ; *Internationality ; Phytoplankton/metabolism ; }, abstract = {In recent years, global climate change has been shown to detrimentally affect many biological and environmental factors, including those of marine ecosystems. In particular, global climate change has been linked to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, UV irradiation, and ocean temperatures, resulting in decreased marine phytoplankton growth and reduced synthesis of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Marine phytoplankton are the primary producers of omega-3 PUFAs, which are essential nutrients for normal human growth and development and have many beneficial effects on human health. Thus, these detrimental effects of climate change on the oceans may reduce the availability of omega-3 PUFAs in our diets, exacerbating the modern deficiency of omega-3 PUFAs and imbalance of the tissue omega-6/omega-3 PUFA ratio, which have been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disease. This article provides new insight into the relationship between global climate change and human health by identifying omega-3 PUFA availability as a potentially important link, and proposes a biotechnological strategy for addressing the potential shortage of omega-3 PUFAs in human diets resulting from global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21402919, year = {2011}, author = {Oberle, B and Schaal, BA}, title = {Responses to historical climate change identify contemporary threats to diversity in Dodecatheon.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {14}, pages = {5655-5660}, pmid = {21402919}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*genetics ; Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis ; Analysis of Variance ; Base Sequence ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; DNA Primers/genetics ; *Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Molecular Sequence Data ; North America ; Primulaceae/*genetics/*physiology ; Regression Analysis ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change may threaten many species with extinction. However, species at risk today survived global climate change in recent geological history. Describing how habitat tracking and adaptation allowed species to survive warming since the end of the Pleistocene can indicate the relative importance of dispersal and natural selection during climate change. By taking this historical perspective, we can identify how contemporary climate change could interfere with these mechanisms and threaten the most vulnerable species. We focused on a group of closely related plant species in the genus Dodecatheon (Primulaceae) in eastern North America. Two rare species (Dodecatheon amethystinum and Dodecatheon frenchii) that are endemic to patchy cool cliffs may be glacial relicts whose ranges constricted following the last glacial maximum. Alternatively, these species may be extreme ecotypes of a single widespread species (Dodecatheon meadia) that quickly adapted to microclimatic differences among habitats. We test support for these alternative scenarios by combining ecophysiological and population genetic data at a regional scale. An important ecophysiological trait distinguishes rare species from D. meadia, but only a few northern populations of D. amethystinum are genetically distinctive. These relict populations indicate that habitat tracking did occur with historical climate change. However, relatively stronger evidence for isolation by distance and admixture suggests that local adaptation and genetic introgression have been at least as important. The complex response of Dodecatheon to historical climate change suggests that contemporary conservation efforts should accommodate evolutionary processes, in some cases by restoring genetic connectivity between ecologically differentiated populations.}, }
@article {pmid21402799, year = {2011}, author = {Keim, ME}, title = {Preventing disasters: public health vulnerability reduction as a sustainable adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Disaster medicine and public health preparedness}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {140-148}, doi = {10.1001/dmp.2011.30}, pmid = {21402799}, issn = {1938-744X}, mesh = {Capacity Building ; *Climate Change ; Disaster Planning/*methods ; Disasters/*prevention &amp; control ; Health Policy ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Poverty ; *Program Evaluation ; *Public Health Practice ; Risk Assessment ; *Risk Reduction Behavior ; }, abstract = {Global warming could increase the number and severity of extreme weather events. These events are often known to result in public health disasters, but we can lessen the effects of these disasters. By addressing the factors that cause changes in climate, we can mitigate the effects of climate change. By addressing the factors that make society vulnerable to the effects of climate, we can adapt to climate change. To adapt to climate change, a comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction has been proposed. By reducing human vulnerability to disasters, we can lessen--and at times even prevent--their impact. Human vulnerability is a complex phenomenon that comprises social, economic, health, and cultural factors. Because public health is uniquely placed at the community level, it has the opportunity to lessen human vulnerability to climate-related disasters. At the national and international level, a supportive policy environment can enable local adaptation to disaster events. The purpose of this article is to introduce the basic concept of disaster risk reduction so that it can be applied to preventing and mitigating the negative effects of climate change and to examine the role of community-focused public health as a means for lessening human vulnerability and, as a result, the overall risk of climate-related disasters.}, }
@article {pmid21401338, year = {2011}, author = {Waltham, D}, title = {Testing anthropic selection: a climate change example.}, journal = {Astrobiology}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {105-114}, pmid = {21401338}, issn = {1557-8070}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Earth, Planet ; Exobiology/*methods ; Moon ; Planets ; }, abstract = {Planetary anthropic selection, the idea that Earth has unusual properties since, otherwise, we would not be here to observe it, is a controversial idea. This paper proposes a methodology by which to test anthropic proposals by comparison of Earth to synthetic populations of Earth-like planets. The paper illustrates this approach by investigating possible anthropic selection for high (or low) rates of Milankovitch-driven climate change. Three separate tests are investigated: (1) Earth-Moon properties and their effect on obliquity; (2) Individual planet locations and their effect on eccentricity variation; (3) The overall structure of the Solar System and its effect on eccentricity variation. In all three cases, the actual Earth/Solar System has unusually low Milankovitch frequencies compared to similar alternative systems. All three results are statistically significant at the 5% or better level, and the probability of all three occurring by chance is less than 10(-5). It therefore appears that there has been anthropic selection for slow Milankovitch cycles. This implies possible selection for a stable climate, which, if true, undermines the Gaia hypothesis and also suggests that planets with Earth-like levels of biodiversity are likely to be very rare.}, }
@article {pmid21399764, year = {2011}, author = {Myers, SS and Bernstein, A}, title = {The coming health crisis: indirect health effects of global climate change.}, journal = {F1000 biology reports}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {3}, pmid = {21399764}, issn = {1757-594X}, abstract = {Global climate change threatens the health of hundreds of millions of people. While much has been written about the direct impacts of climate change on health as a result of more severe storms, more intense heat stress, changes in the distribution of infectious disease, and reduced air quality, we are concerned that the indirect impacts of a disrupted climate system may be orders of magnitude more important in terms of the human suffering they cause. Because these indirect effects will result from changes in biophysical systems, which are inherently complex, there is significant uncertainty about their magnitude, timing, and location. However, the uncertainty that shrouds this issue should not be cause for complacency; rather it should serve as an organizing principle for adaptation to its ill effects.}, }
@article {pmid21397606, year = {2011}, author = {Rose, H and Wall, R}, title = {Modelling the impact of climate change on spatial patterns of disease risk: sheep blowfly strike by Lucilia sericata in Great Britain.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology}, volume = {41}, number = {7}, pages = {739-746}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijpara.2011.01.012}, pmid = {21397606}, issn = {1879-0135}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Diptera/*growth &amp; development/*pathogenicity ; Geography ; Incidence ; *Models, Statistical ; Myiasis/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Sheep ; Sheep Diseases/*epidemiology/parasitology ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Understanding the spatial scale and temporal pattern of disease incidence is a fundamental prerequisite for the development of appropriate management and intervention strategies. It is particularly critical, given the need to understand the elevated risks linked to climate change, to allow the most likely changes in the distribution of parasites and disease vectors to be predicted under a range of climate change scenarios. Using statistical models, the spatial distribution and climatic correlates of a range of parasites and diseases have been mapped previously, but their development into dynamic, predictive tools is less common. The aim of the work described here, was to use a species distribution model to characterise the environmental determinants of the monthly occurrence of ovine cutaneous myiasis (blowfly strike) by Lucilia sericata, the most frequent primary agent of northern European myiasis, and to then use this model to describe the potential spatial changes that might be expected in response to predicted climate change in Great Britain. The model predicts that the range of elevated temperatures predicted by current climate change scenarios will result in an increase in the risk of strike and an elongated blowfly season. However, even for the most rapid warming scenario predictions over the next 70 years, strike is not predicted to occur throughout the winter. Nevertheless, in this latter case, parts of central and southern England are likely to become too hot and dry for strike by L. sericata, to persist in mid-summer. Under these conditions, it is possible that other, more pathogenic Mediterranean agents of myiasis, such as Wolfhartia magnifica, could potentially replace L. sericata. Where the phenology of strike is altered by climate change, as predicted here, significant changes to the timing and frequency of parasite treatments and husbandry practices, such as shearing, will be required to manage the problem. The results suggest that the modelling approach adopted here could be usefully applied to a range of disease systems.}, }
@article {pmid21392333, year = {2010}, author = {Li, R and Tian, H and Li, X}, title = {Climate change induced range shifts of Galliformes in China.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {154-163}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-4877.2010.00198.x}, pmid = {21392333}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Demography ; Galliformes/*physiology ; Geography ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change will cause range shifts of many species in the future. Galliformes might be particularly vulnerable to climate change, as they have low dispersal ability. Little is known about their possible responses to the future climate. We used a generalized additive model to predict the current and future ranges of all 63 Galliformes in China, based on a comprehensive species occurrence database and a combination of climate variables. Other environmental variables (e.g. elevation and human footprint index) were also considered, as well as the latitude and longitude of the occurrences. Principal component analysis was conducted to illustrate the association between environmental variables and Galliformes distributions. Using the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario for 2071-2100, we projected that 29 species would have range shifts over 50%, including 13 endemic species. Galliformes at higher elevation face greater range shifts. Northward shifts are greater than those in other directions. We suggest conservationists pay special attention to the 29 Galliformes that face extensive range shifts, especially the endemic species among them.}, }
@article {pmid21392328, year = {2010}, author = {Mainka, SA and Howard, GW}, title = {Climate change and invasive species: double jeopardy.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {102-111}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-4877.2010.00193.x}, pmid = {21392328}, issn = {1749-4877}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Introduced Species/*trends ; Public Policy/*trends ; }, abstract = {Two of the key drivers of biodiversity loss today are climate change and invasive species. Climate change is already having a measurable impact on species distributions, reproduction and behavior, and all evidence suggests that things will get worse even if we act tomorrow to mitigate any future increases in greenhouse gas emissions: temperature will increase, precipitation will change, sea level will rise and ocean chemistry will change. At the same time, biological invasions remain an important threat to biodiversity, causing species loss, changes in distribution and habitat degradation. Acting together, the impacts of each of these drivers of change are compounded and interactions between these two threats present even greater challenges to field conservationists as well as policymakers. Similarly, the social and economic impacts of climate change and invasive species, already substantial, will be magnified. Awareness of the links between the two should underpin all biodiversity management planning and policy.}, }
@article {pmid21388996, year = {2011}, author = {Way, DA}, title = {Parasitic plants and forests: a climate change perspective.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpq113}, pmid = {21388996}, issn = {1758-4469}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Plant Diseases/parasitology/prevention &amp; control ; Plant Weeds/*growth &amp; development ; Trees/*growth &amp; development/parasitology/physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid21385792, year = {2011}, author = {Künzli, N}, title = {Commentary: Abating climate change and lung cancer!.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {729-730}, doi = {10.1093/ije/dyr037}, pmid = {21385792}, issn = {1464-3685}, mesh = {Air Pollution, Indoor/*adverse effects ; Coal/*adverse effects ; Female ; Humans ; Lung Neoplasms/*epidemiology/*etiology ; Male ; }, }
@article {pmid21381358, year = {2010}, author = {Gudinova, ZhV and Akimova, IS and Klochikhina, AV}, title = {[Climate change and hygienic assessment of weather conditions in Omsk and the Omsk Region].}, journal = {Gigiena i sanitariia}, volume = {}, number = {6}, pages = {18-20}, pmid = {21381358}, issn = {0016-9900}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Hygiene ; Retrospective Studies ; *Seasons ; Siberia ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {The paper deals with trends in climate change in the Omsk Region: the increases in average annual air temperatures and rainfall, which are attended by the higher number of abnormal weather events, as shown by the data of the Omsk Regional Board, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. There is information on weather severity in 2008: there was mild weather in spring and severe weather in winter, in January in particular. A survey of physicians has revealed that medical workers are concerned about climate problems and global warming and ascertained weather events mostly affecting the population's health. People worry most frequently about a drastic temperature drop or rise (as high as 71%), atmospheric pressure change (53%), and "when it is too hot in summer (47%).}, }
@article {pmid21376677, year = {2011}, author = {Yang, HM}, title = {Global warming and socioeconomic conditions: Comment on "Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections" by Eduardo Massad, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho, Luiz Fernandes Lopez and Daniel Rodrigues da Silva.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {200-1; discussion 206-7}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2011.02.007}, pmid = {21376677}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid21376676, year = {2011}, author = {Aguiar, M}, title = {The effect of global warming on vector-borne diseases: Comment on "Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne" infections by E. Massad et al.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {202-3; discussion 206-7}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2011.02.008}, pmid = {21376676}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid21375263, year = {2011}, author = {Wang, Y and Gosens, J and Wang, H and Hao, Z}, title = {China's increasingly positive and active stance on climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {45}, number = {7}, pages = {2525-2526}, doi = {10.1021/es200520d}, pmid = {21375263}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Carbon Footprint/statistics &amp; numerical data ; China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environmental Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid21374089, year = {2011}, author = {Prato, T}, title = {Adaptively managing wildlife for climate change: a fuzzy logic approach.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {48}, number = {1}, pages = {142-149}, pmid = {21374089}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Animals ; *Animals, Wild ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Fuzzy Logic ; }, abstract = {Wildlife managers have little or no control over climate change. However, they may be able to alleviate potential adverse impacts of future climate change by adaptively managing wildlife for climate change. In particular, wildlife managers can evaluate the efficacy of compensatory management actions (CMAs) in alleviating potential adverse impacts of future climate change on wildlife species using probability-based or fuzzy decision rules. Application of probability-based decision rules requires managers to specify certain probabilities, which is not possible when they are uncertain about the relationships between observed and true ecological conditions for a species. Under such uncertainty, the efficacy of CMAs can be evaluated and the best CMA selected using fuzzy decision rules. The latter are described and demonstrated using three constructed cases that assume: (1) a single ecological indicator (e.g., population size for a species) in a single time period; (2) multiple ecological indicators for a species in a single time period; and (3) multiple ecological conditions for a species in multiple time periods.}, }
@article {pmid21372325, year = {2011}, author = {Li, Y and Johnson, EJ and Zaval, L}, title = {Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.}, journal = {Psychological science}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {454-459}, doi = {10.1177/0956797611400913}, pmid = {21372325}, issn = {1467-9280}, support = {5R01AG027934/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Climate ; *Global Warming ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Politics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.}, }
@article {pmid21368820, year = {2011}, author = {Serreze, MC}, title = {Climate change: Rethinking the sea-ice tipping point.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {471}, number = {7336}, pages = {47-48}, doi = {10.1038/471047a}, pmid = {21368820}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change/history/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Freezing ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Ice Cover ; *Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid21368818, year = {2011}, author = {Fujita, K}, title = {Climate change: Another Antarctic rhythm.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {471}, number = {7336}, pages = {45-46}, pmid = {21368818}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid21368199, year = {2011}, author = {Müller, C and Cramer, W and Hare, WL and Lotze-Campen, H}, title = {Climate change risks for African agriculture.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {11}, pages = {4313-4315}, pmid = {21368199}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Africa ; *Agriculture/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; }, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.}, }
@article {pmid21364554, year = {2011}, author = {Helmle, KP and Dodge, RE and Swart, PK and Gledhill, DK and Eakin, CM}, title = {Growth rates of Florida corals from 1937 to 1996 and their response to climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {215}, pmid = {21364554}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*growth &amp; development ; Calcification, Physiologic ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Florida ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Ocean acidification causes declines in calcification rates of corals because of decreasing aragonite saturation states (Ω(arag)). Recent evidence also indicates that increasing sea surface temperatures may have already reduced growth and calcification rates because of the stenothermic threshold of localized coral populations. Density banding in coral skeletons provides a record of growth over the coral's lifespan. Here we present coral extension, bulk density and calcification master chronologies from seven subtropical corals (Montastraea faveolata) located in the Florida Keys, USA with a 60-year common period, 1937-1996. Linear trends indicate that extension increased, density decreased and calcification remained stable while the most recent decade was not significantly different than decadal averages over the preceding 50 years for extension and calcification. The results suggest that growth rates in this species of subtropical coral have been tolerant to recent climatic changes up to the time of collection (1996).}, }
@article {pmid21362800, year = {2011}, author = {Watts, G}, title = {Leaders of US medicine speak out on health effects of climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {342}, number = {}, pages = {d1339}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.d1339}, pmid = {21362800}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid21361019, year = {2010}, author = {Zhao, JF and Guo, JP and Ma, YP and E, YH and Wang, PJ and Wu, DR}, title = {[Change trends of China agricultural thermal resources under climate change and related adaptation countermeasures].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {2922-2930}, pmid = {21361019}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; China ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Forecasting ; }, abstract = {Based on the 2011-2050 A2 climate scenario derived from the regional climate model PRECIS and the daily data of 1961-1990 baseline climate condition, this paper analyzed the possible changes of the agricultural thermal resources in China from 2011 to 2050. Comparing with the baseline climate condition in 1961-1990, the average frost-free periods in most parts of China in 2011-2050 under A2 climate scenario would have an obvious extension, mainly manifested in the advance of last frost date and the postpone of first frost date. The days with the daily average temperature stably passing 0 degrees C would also prolong significantly, and extend from 1 day to 14 days in most parts of the country. Especially from 2041 to 2050, the days with the daily average temperature stably passing 0 degrees C in most regions of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, and western and southwestern regions of Gansu and Xinjiang could be extended by 49 days. The > or = 0 degrees C accumulated temperatures in most parts of the country would have increasing trends. In order to meet the future change trend of our agricultural thermal resources and to realize the sustainable development of agriculture in China, some countermeasures should be formulated, e.g., further adjusting agricultural cropping system, optimizing agricultural production distribution, developing biotechnology, and so on.}, }
@article {pmid21358817, year = {2011}, author = {Messaoud, Y and Chen, HY}, title = {The influence of recent climate change on tree height growth differs with species and spatial environment.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {e14691}, pmid = {21358817}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; *Environment ; Geography ; Picea/growth &amp; development ; Soil/chemistry ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Tree growth has been reported to increase in response to recent global climate change in controlled and semi-controlled experiments, but few studies have reported response of tree growth to increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in natural environments. This study addresses how recent global climate change has affected height growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) and black spruce (Picea mariana Mill B.S.) in their natural environments. We sampled 145 stands dominated by aspen and 82 dominated by spruce over the entire range of their distributions in British Columbia, Canada. These stands were established naturally after fire between the 19th and 20th centuries. Height growth was quantified as total heights of sampled dominant and co-dominant trees at breast-height age of 50 years. We assessed the relationships between 50-year height growth and environmental factors at both spatial and temporal scales. We also tested whether the tree growth associated with global climate change differed with spatial environment (latitude, longitude and elevation). As expected, height growth of both species was positively related to temperature variables at the regional scale and with soil moisture and nutrient availability at the local scale. While height growth of trembling aspen was not significantly related to any of the temporal variables we examined, that of black spruce increased significantly with stand establishment date, the anomaly of the average maximum summer temperature between May-August, and atmospheric CO2 concentration, but not with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Furthermore, the increase of spruce height growth associated with recent climate change was higher in the western than in eastern part of British Columbia. This study demonstrates that the response of height growth to recent climate change, i.e., increasing temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, did not only differ with tree species, but also their growing spatial environment.}, }
@article {pmid21356629, year = {2011}, author = {Tillett, T}, title = {Climate change and children's health: protecting and preparing our youngest.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {3}, pages = {a132}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.119-a132b}, pmid = {21356629}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Child, Preschool ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Environmental Policy ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Health Status ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid21356544, year = {2011}, author = {Fan, Z and Neff, JC and Harden, JW and Zhang, T and Veldhuis, H and Czimczik, CI and Winston, GC and O'Donnell, JA}, title = {Water and heat transport in boreal soils: implications for soil response to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {409}, number = {10}, pages = {1836-1842}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.02.009}, pmid = {21356544}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cold Climate ; Environment ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; *Hot Temperature ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes. Overall, soil temperatures during the growing season tended to be over-estimated by 2-4°C when movement of liquid water and water vapor was not represented in the model. The role of heat transport in water has broad implications for site responses to warming and suggests reduced vulnerability of permafrost to thaw at drier sites. This result is consistent with field observations of faster thaw in response to warming in wet sites compared to drier sites over the past 30 years in Canadian boreal forests. These results highlight that representation of water flow in heat transport models is important to simulate future soil thermal or permafrost dynamics under a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid21350480, year = {2011}, author = {Hoffmann, AA and Sgrò, CM}, title = {Climate change and evolutionary adaptation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {470}, number = {7335}, pages = {479-485}, pmid = {21350480}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics/*physiology ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change/mortality ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Gene Flow ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Evolutionary adaptation can be rapid and potentially help species counter stressful conditions or realize ecological opportunities arising from climate change. The challenges are to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits. Evolutionary processes also need to be incorporated into management programmes designed to minimize biodiversity loss under rapid climate change. These challenges can be met through realistic models of evolutionary change linked to experimental data across a range of taxa.}, }
@article {pmid21350477, year = {2011}, author = {Williams, J}, title = {Climate change: Old droughts in New Mexico.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {470}, number = {7335}, pages = {473-474}, pmid = {21350477}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Calcium/analysis ; Carbon/analysis ; *Climate ; Droughts/*history/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fresh Water ; Geologic Sediments/analysis/chemistry ; Global Warming/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/statistics &amp; numerical data ; History, Ancient ; Human Activities ; New Mexico ; Pollen/chemistry ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid21350174, year = {2011}, author = {Cárdenas, ML and Gosling, WD and Sherlock, SC and Poole, I and Pennington, RT and Mothes, P}, title = {The response of vegetation on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to Pleistocene climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {331}, number = {6020}, pages = {1055-1058}, doi = {10.1126/science.1197947}, pmid = {21350174}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Altitude ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Ecuador ; Fires ; *Fossils ; Geologic Sediments ; *Plants ; Pollen ; *Trees ; Volcanic Eruptions ; }, abstract = {A reconstruction of past environmental change from Ecuador reveals the response of lower montane forest on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to glacial-interglacial global climate change. Radiometric dating of volcanic ash indicates that deposition occurred ~324,000 to 193,000 years ago during parts of Marine Isotope Stages 9, 7, and 6. Fossil pollen and wood preserved within organic sediments suggest that the composition of the forest altered radically in response to glacial-interglacial climate change. The presence of Podocarpus macrofossils ~1000 meters below the lower limit of their modern distribution indicates a relative cooling of at least 5°C during glacials and persistence of wet conditions. Interglacial deposits contain thermophilic palms suggesting warm and wet climates. Hence, global temperature change can radically alter vegetation communities and biodiversity in this region.}, }
@article {pmid21343926, year = {2011}, author = {Karell, P and Ahola, K and Karstinen, T and Valkama, J and Brommer, JE}, title = {Climate change drives microevolution in a wild bird.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {208}, pmid = {21343926}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/genetics/*physiology ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Melanins ; Models, Genetic ; Pigmentation/genetics/*physiology ; *Selection, Genetic ; Snow ; Strigiformes/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {To ensure long-term persistence, organisms must adapt to climate change, but an evolutionary response to a quantified selection pressure driven by climate change has not been empirically demonstrated in a wild population. Here, we show that pheomelanin-based plumage colouration in tawny owls is a highly heritable trait, consistent with a simple Mendelian pattern of brown (dark) dominance over grey (pale). We show that strong viability selection against the brown morph occurs, but only under snow-rich winters. As winter conditions became milder in the last decades, selection against the brown morph diminished. Concurrent with this reduced selection, the frequency of brown morphs increased rapidly in our study population during the last 28 years and nationwide during the last 48 years. Hence, we show the first evidence that recent climate change alters natural selection in a wild population leading to a microevolutionary response, which demonstrates the ability of wild populations to evolve in response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21335625, year = {2011}, author = {Seal, A and Vasudevan, C}, title = {Climate change and child health.}, journal = {Archives of disease in childhood}, volume = {96}, number = {12}, pages = {1162-1166}, doi = {10.1136/adc.2010.186213}, pmid = {21335625}, issn = {1468-2044}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Welfare ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Postindustrial human activity has contributed to rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases causing global warming and climate change. The adverse effects of climate change affect children disproportionately, especially in the developing world. Urgent action is necessary to mitigate the causes and adapt to the negative effects of climate change. Paediatricians have an important role in managing the effects of climate change on children and promoting sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid21334885, year = {2011}, author = {Kumar, K and Dasgupta, CN and Nayak, B and Lindblad, P and Das, D}, title = {Development of suitable photobioreactors for CO2 sequestration addressing global warming using green algae and cyanobacteria.}, journal = {Bioresource technology}, volume = {102}, number = {8}, pages = {4945-4953}, doi = {10.1016/j.biortech.2011.01.054}, pmid = {21334885}, issn = {1873-2976}, mesh = {*Bioreactors ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; Chlorophyta/*metabolism ; Cyanobacteria/*metabolism ; *Global Warming ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Light ; Oxygen/metabolism ; Photochemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {CO(2) sequestration by cyanobacteria and green algae are receiving increased attention in alleviating the impact of increasing CO(2) in the atmosphere. They, in addition to CO(2) capture, can produce renewable energy carriers such as carbon free energy hydrogen, bioethanol, biodiesel and other valuable biomolecules. Biological fixation of CO(2) are greatly affected by the characteristics of the microbial strains, their tolerance to temperature and the CO(2) present in the flue gas including SO(X), NO(X). However, there are additional factors like the availability of light, pH, O(2) removal, suitable design of the photobioreactor, culture density and the proper agitation of the reactor that will affect significantly the CO(2) sequestration process. Present paper deals with the photobioreactors of different geometry available for biomass production. It also focuses on the hybrid types of reactors (integrating two reactors) which can be used for overcoming the bottlenecks of a single photobioreactor.}, }
@article {pmid21332497, year = {2011}, author = {Wood, PJ}, title = {Climate change and game theory.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1219}, number = {}, pages = {153-170}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05891.x}, pmid = {21332497}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Game Theory ; International Cooperation ; }, abstract = {This paper examines the problem of achieving global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Contributions to this problem are reviewed from noncooperative game theory, cooperative game theory, and implementation theory. We examine the solutions to games where players have a continuous choice about how much to pollute, as well as games where players make decisions about treaty participation. The implications of linking cooperation on climate change with cooperation on other issues, such as trade, are also examined. Cooperative and noncooperative approaches to coalition formation are investigated in order to examine the behavior of coalitions cooperating on climate change. One way to achieve cooperation is to design a game, known as a mechanism, whose equilibrium corresponds to an optimal outcome. This paper examines some mechanisms that are based on conditional commitments, and their policy implications. These mechanisms could make cooperation on climate change mitigation more likely.}, }
@article {pmid21331034, year = {2011}, author = {Allan, RP}, title = {Climate change: Human influence on rainfall.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {470}, number = {7334}, pages = {344-345}, pmid = {21331034}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Disasters/statistics &amp; numerical data ; England ; Floods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Human Activities ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Rivers ; Wales ; }, }
@article {pmid21331014, year = {2011}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Increased flood risk linked to global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {470}, number = {7334}, pages = {316}, pmid = {21331014}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Disaster Planning ; Disasters/economics/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Droughts/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Policy ; Floods/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forecasting ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Insurance Carriers/economics ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Risk Assessment ; Snow ; }, }
@article {pmid21328950, year = {2010}, author = {Li, Y and Yang, XG and Wang, WF and Liu, ZJ}, title = {[Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. I. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in South China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {2605-2614}, pmid = {21328950}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Ecology/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Rain ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {By using the 1961-2007 daily weather data from 66 meteorological stations all over South China, this paper studied the spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources, including heat, light, and precipitation, in this region on the scales of whole year and temperature-defined growth season. In 1961-2007, the mean annual air temperature in this region tended to be increased by 0.20 degrees C x (10 a)(-1), and the climatic trend of > or = 10 degrees C accumulated temperature in temperature-defined growth season increased gradually from north to south, with an average of 98 degrees C x d x (10 a)(-1). Comparied with those in 1961-1980, the areas of the accumulated temperature zone of 6200-7500 degrees C x d and 7500-8000 degrees C x d in 1981-2007 increased by 1.5 x 10(4) and 4.7 x 10(4) km2, respectively. In 1961-2007, the sunshine hours on the scales of whole year and temperature-defined growth season decreased by -57 h x (10 a)(-1) and -38 h x (10 a)(-1), respectively, and the areas with sunshine hour > or = 1800 h on the two scales tended to be decreased, compared with those in 1961-1980. The precipitation on the two scales increased slightly, and the increment varied obviously in different parts of the region. There were 62% and 52% of the stations where the reference crop evapotranspiration on the scales of whole year and temperature-defined growth season was in negative, respectively. In 1981-2007, the high-value area of reference crop evapotranspiration decreased, while the low-value area increased, compared with those in 1961-1980. The mean climatic trend of annual humidity index was 0.01 x (10 a)(-1), and 70% of the stations showed an increasing trend. Comparing with that in 1961-1980, the humidity index on the scale of temperature-defined growth season in 1981-2007 was increased by 0. 02, with 53% of the stations showed positive. On the whole, the change characteristics of climate in South China in 1961-2007 showed a tendency of warming and wetting, which would impact the cropping system, yield, and agricultural structure in the region.}, }
@article {pmid21328935, year = {2010}, author = {Zhang, XL and Cui, MX and Ma, YJ and Wu, T and Chen, ZJ and Ding, WH}, title = {[Larix gmelinii tree-ring width chronology and its responses to climate change in Kuduer, Great Xing' an Mountains].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {2501-2507}, pmid = {21328935}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Chronobiology Phenomena ; *Climate Change ; Larix/*anatomy &amp; histology/*growth &amp; development ; Plant Stems/*anatomy &amp; histology ; }, abstract = {Based on the established tree-ring width chronology of Larix gmelinii in Kuduer, Great Xing' an Mountains, this paper analyzed the relationships between L. gmelinii tree-ring width chronology and related climatic variables, including air temperature, precipitation, and PDSI. In the study area, the L. gmelinii tree-ring width chronology was significantly negatively correlated with the air temperature in May and July (P<0.01), had no significant correlation with precipitation, but significantly positively correlated with the PDSI in June-August (P<0.05), suggesting that hydro-thermal variables had significant coupling effects to the radial growth of L. gmelinii in its growth season, particularly in May and July. The L. gmelinii tree-ring width chronology had significant correlations with large scale climatic regimes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in both low and high frequency variations, illustrating the significant effects of the remote oceanic climatic regimes to the local tree growth.}, }
@article {pmid21328008, year = {2011}, author = {Craine, JM and Nippert, JB and Towne, EG and Tucker, S and Kembel, SW and Skibbe, A and McLauchlan, KK}, title = {Functional consequences of climate change-induced plant species loss in a tallgrass prairie.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {165}, number = {4}, pages = {1109-1117}, pmid = {21328008}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Ecosystem ; North America ; Poaceae/classification/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Soil/*analysis ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {Future climate change is likely to reduce the floristic diversity of grasslands. Yet the potential consequences of climate-induced plant species losses for the functioning of these ecosystems are poorly understood. We investigated how climate change might alter the functional composition of grasslands for Konza Prairie, a diverse tallgrass prairie in central North America. With species-specific climate envelopes, we show that a reduction in mean annual precipitation would preferentially remove species that are more abundant in the more productive lowland positions at Konza. As such, decreases in precipitation could reduce productivity not only by reducing water availability but by also removing species that inhabit the most productive areas and respond the most to climate variability. In support of this prediction, data on species abundance at Konza over 16 years show that species that are more abundant in lowlands than uplands are preferentially reduced in years with low precipitation. Climate change is likely to also preferentially remove species from particular functional groups and clades. For example, warming is forecast to preferentially remove perennials over annuals as well as Cyperaceae species. Despite these predictions, climate change is unlikely to unilaterally alter the functional composition of the tallgrass prairie flora, as many functional traits such as physiological drought tolerance and maximum photosynthetic rates showed little relationship with climate envelope parameters. In all, although climatic drying would indirectly alter grassland productivity through species loss patterns, the insurance afforded by biodiversity to ecosystem function is likely to be sustained in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21326276, year = {2011}, author = {Xu, C and Liang, C and Wullschleger, S and Wilson, C and McDowell, N}, title = {Importance of feedback loops between soil inorganic nitrogen and microbial communities in the heterotrophic soil respiration response to global warming.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {222}, pmid = {21326276}, issn = {1740-1534}, mesh = {Bacteria/metabolism ; Ecosystem ; Feedback, Physiological ; *Global Warming ; Nitrogen/*chemistry/*metabolism ; *Oxygen Consumption ; Soil/*chemistry ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid21326204, year = {2011}, author = {Thuiller, W and Lavergne, S and Roquet, C and Boulangeat, I and Lafourcade, B and Araujo, MB}, title = {Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {470}, number = {7335}, pages = {531-534}, pmid = {21326204}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Extinction, Biological ; Human Activities ; *Mammals ; Models, Theoretical ; *Phylogeny ; *Plants ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Many species are projected to become vulnerable to twenty-first-century climate changes, with consequent effects on the tree of life. If losses were not randomly distributed across the tree of life, climate change could lead to a disproportionate loss of evolutionary history. Here we estimate the consequences of climate change on the phylogenetic diversities of plant, bird and mammal assemblages across Europe. Using a consensus across ensembles of forecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080 and high-resolution phylogenetic trees, we show that species vulnerability to climate change clusters weakly across phylogenies. Such phylogenetic signal in species vulnerabilities does not lead to higher loss of evolutionary history than expected with a model of random extinctions. This is because vulnerable species have neither fewer nor closer relatives than the remaining clades. Reductions in phylogenetic diversity will be greater in southern Europe, and gains are expected in regions of high latitude or altitude. However, losses will not be offset by gains and the tree of life faces a trend towards homogenization across the continent.}, }
@article {pmid21320629, year = {2011}, author = {Naya, DE and Veloso, C and Sabat, P and Bozinovic, F}, title = {Physiological flexibility and climate change: The case of digestive function regulation in lizards.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {159}, number = {1}, pages = {100-104}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2011.02.005}, pmid = {21320629}, issn = {1531-4332}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; CD13 Antigens/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Digestion/*physiology ; Intestine, Small/anatomy &amp; histology/enzymology/physiology ; Lizards/*physiology ; Male ; Organ Size ; *Seasons ; alpha-Glucosidases/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Our planet is undergoing fast environmental changes, which are referred as global change. In this new scenario, it is of paramount relevance to understand the mechanistic basis of animal responses to environmental change. Here we analyze to what extent seasonal changes in the digestive function of the lizard Liolaemus moradoensis is under endogenous (i.e., hard wired) or exogenous (i.e., environmentally determined) control. For this purpose we compared animals collected in the field during autumn, winter and summer, against (experimental) specimens collected in the field at the beginning of autumn and reared in the laboratory under simulated summer conditions until winter. We found that different aspects of the digestive function are under different types of control: small intestine length appears to be under endogenous control (i.e., experimental animals were similar to winter animals), small intestine mass appears to be under exogenous control (i.e., experimental animals were similar to summer animals), and specific enzyme activities did not change throughout the year. Thus, we suspect that processes related with gut length, such as cell division, may be under endogenous control, while others related with gut mass, such as enterocyte size and content, may be determined by exogenous factors, such as the presence of food in the intestinal lumen. Faced with accelerated changing conditions, the ability of vertebrates to cope will be closely related with their plasticity in fitness-associated traits. More studies aimed at determining the levels and limits of physiological flexibility will be necessary to understand this phenomenon.}, }
@article {pmid21320241, year = {2011}, author = {Banu, S and Hu, W and Hurst, C and Tong, S}, title = {Dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region: impact of climate change and socio-environmental factors.}, journal = {Tropical medicine &amp; international health : TM &amp; IH}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {598-607}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-3156.2011.02734.x}, pmid = {21320241}, issn = {1365-3156}, mesh = {Asia/epidemiology ; Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/epidemiology/*transmission ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To review the scientific evidence about the impact of climate change and socio-environmental factors on dengue transmission, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.<br><br>METHODS: Search of the published literature on PubMed, ISI web of Knowledge and Google Scholar. Articles were included if an association between climate or socio-environmental factors and dengue transmission was assessed in any country of the Asia-Pacific region.<br><br>RESULTS: Twenty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. The weight of the evidence indicates that global climate change is likely to affect the seasonal and geographical distribution of dengue fever (DF) in the Asia-Pacific region. However, empirical evidence linking DF to climate change is inconsistent across geographical locations and absent in some countries where dengue is endemic.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Even though climate change may play an increasing role in the transmission of DF, no clear evidence shows that such impact has already occurred. More research is needed across countries to better understand the relationship between climate change and dengue transmission. Future research should also consider and adjust for the influence of important socio-environmental factors in the assessment of the climate change-related effects on dengue transmission.}, }
@article {pmid21319462, year = {2010}, author = {Mayner, L and Arbon, P}, title = {Climate change, health and the need to increase resilience and capacity.}, journal = {Collegian (Royal College of Nursing, Australia)}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {151-152}, doi = {10.1016/j.colegn.2010.07.002}, pmid = {21319462}, issn = {1322-7696}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Disaster Planning ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid21318006, year = {2010}, author = {Liao, SY and Tseng, WC and Chen, PY and Chen, CC and Wu, WM}, title = {Estimating the economic impact of climate change on cardiovascular diseases--evidence from Taiwan.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {4250-4266}, pmid = {21318006}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/*mortality ; Climate Change/*economics ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Taiwan ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The main purpose of this study was to investigate how climate change affects blood vessel-related heart disease and hypertension and to estimate the associated economic damage. In this paper, both the panel data model and the contingent valuation method (CVM) approaches are applied. The empirical results indicate that the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 0.226% as the variation in temperature increases by 1%. More importantly, the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 1.2% to 4.1% under alternative IPCC climate change scenarios. The results from the CVM approach show that each person would be willing to pay US$51 to US$97 per year in order to avoid the increase in the mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases caused by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21307386, year = {2011}, author = {Pinto, H and Tissue, DT and Ghannoum, O}, title = {Panicum milioides (C(3)-C(4)) does not have improved water or nitrogen economies relative to C(3) and C(4) congeners exposed to industrial-age climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {62}, number = {9}, pages = {3223-3234}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/err005}, pmid = {21307386}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; Chlorophyll/metabolism ; Climate Change ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Panicum/growth &amp; development/metabolism/*physiology ; Photosynthesis/*physiology ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development/metabolism/physiology ; Plant Stomata/metabolism ; Plant Transpiration/physiology ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Water/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The physiological implications of C(3)-C(4) photosynthesis were investigated using closely related Panicum species exposed to industrial-age climate change. Panicum bisulcatum (C(3)), P. milioides (C(3)-C(4)), and P. coloratum (C(4)) were grown in a glasshouse at three CO(2) concentrations ([CO(2)]: 280, 400, and 650 μl l(-1)) and two air temperatures [ambient (27/19 °C day/night) and ambient + 4 °C] for 12 weeks. Under current ambient [CO(2)] and temperature, the C(3)-C(4) species had higher photosynthetic rates and lower stomatal limitation and electron cost of photosynthesis relative to the C(3) species. These photosynthetic advantages did not improve leaf- or plant-level water (WUE) or nitrogen (NUE) use efficiencies of the C(3)-C(4) relative to the C(3) Panicum species. In contrast, the C(4) species had higher photosynthetic rates and WUE but similar NUE to the C(3) species. Increasing [CO(2)] mainly stimulated photosynthesis of the C(3) and C(3)-C(4) species, while high temperature had no or negative effects on photosynthesis of the Panicum species. Under ambient temperature, increasing [CO(2)] enhanced the biomass of the C(3) species only. Under high temperature, increasing [CO(2)] enhanced the biomass of the C(3) and C(3)-C(4) species to the same extent, indicating increased CO(2) limitation in the C(3)-C(4) intermediate at high temperature. Growth [CO(2)] and temperature had complex interactive effects, but did not alter the ranking of key physiological parameters amongst the Panicum species. In conclusion, the ability of C(3)-C(4) intermediate species partially to recycle photorespired CO(2) did not improve WUE or NUE relative to congeneric C(3) or C(4) species grown under varying [CO(2)] and temperature conditions.}, }
@article {pmid21304922, year = {2011}, author = {Gross, L}, title = {Climate change could change rates of evolution.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e1001015}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pbio.1001015}, pmid = {21304922}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Variation ; Selection, Genetic ; Songbirds/*genetics/physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid21304515, year = {2011}, author = {Molnár, PK and Derocher, AE and Klanjscek, T and Lewis, MA}, title = {Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {186}, pmid = {21304515}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Constitution/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Energy Metabolism/physiology ; Female ; Litter Size/*physiology ; Logistic Models ; Manitoba ; *Models, Biological ; Pregnancy ; Ursidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.}, }
@article {pmid21302832, year = {2010}, author = {Damschen, EI and Harrison, S and Grace, JB}, title = {Climate change effects on an endemic-rich edaphic flora: resurveying Robert H. Whittaker's Siskiyou sites (Oregon, USA).}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {12}, pages = {3609-3619}, doi = {10.1890/09-1057.1}, pmid = {21302832}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Oregon ; Plants/*classification/metabolism ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Species with relatively narrow niches, such as plants restricted (endemic) to particular soils, may be especially vulnerable to extinction under a changing climate due to the enhanced difficulty they face in migrating to suitable new sites. To test for community-level effects of climate change, and to compare such effects in a highly endemic-rich flora on unproductive serpentine soils vs. the flora of normal (diorite) soils, in 2007 we resampled as closely as possible 108 sites originally studied by ecologist Robert H. Whittaker from 1949 to 1951 in the Siskiyou Mountains of southern Oregon, USA. We found sharp declines in herb cover and richness on both serpentine and diorite soils. Declines were strongest in species of northern biogeographic affinity, species endemic to the region (in serpentine communities only), and species endemic to serpentine soils. Consistent with climatic warming, herb communities have shifted from 1949-1951 to 2007 to more closely resemble communities found on xeric (warm, dry) south-facing slopes. The changes found in the Siskiyou herb flora suggest that biotas rich in narrowly distributed endemics may be particularly susceptible to the effects of a warming climate.}, }
@article {pmid21290397, year = {2011}, author = {Patarnello, T and Verde, C and di Prisco, G and Bargelloni, L and Zane, L}, title = {How will fish that evolved at constant sub-zero temperatures cope with global warming? Notothenioids as a case study.}, journal = {BioEssays : news and reviews in molecular, cellular and developmental biology}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {260-268}, doi = {10.1002/bies.201000124}, pmid = {21290397}, issn = {1521-1878}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Antifreeze Proteins/physiology ; *Biological Evolution ; Cold Climate ; *Cold Temperature ; Globins/genetics ; Heat-Shock Response ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxidative Stress ; Perciformes/genetics/*physiology ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Current climate change has raised concerns over the fate of the stenothermal Antarctic marine fauna (animals that evolved to live in narrow ranges of cold temperatures). The present paper focuses on Notothenioidei, a taxonomic group that dominates Antarctic fish. Notothenioids evolved in the Southern Ocean over the last 20 million years, providing an example of a marine species flock with unique adaptations to the cold at morphological, physiological and biochemical levels. Their phenotypic modifications are often accompanied by 'irreversible' genomic losses or gene amplifications. On a micro-evolutionary scale, relatively 'shallow' genetic variation is observed, on account of past fluctuations in population size, and a significant genetic structure is evident, suggesting low population connectivity. These features suggest that Antarctic fish might have relatively little potential to adapt to global warming, at least at a genetic level. The extent of their phenotypic plasticity, which is evident to some degree, awaits further research.}, }
@article {pmid21288808, year = {2011}, author = {Kan, H}, title = {Climate change and human health in China.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {2}, pages = {A60-1}, pmid = {21288808}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid21284728, year = {2011}, author = {Hole, DG and Huntley, B and Arinaitwe, J and Butchart, SH and Collingham, YC and Fishpool, LD and Pain, DJ and Willis, SG}, title = {Toward a management framework for networks of protected areas in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {305-315}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01633.x}, pmid = {21284728}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Africa South of the Sahara ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Endangered Species ; Geography ; }, abstract = {Networks of sites of high importance for conservation of biological diversity are a cornerstone of current conservation strategies but are fixed in space and time. As climate change progresses, substantial shifts in species' ranges may transform the ecological community that can be supported at a given site. Thus, some species in an existing network may not be protected in the future or may be protected only if they can move to sites that in future provide suitable conditions. We developed an approach to determine appropriate climate-change adaptation strategies for individual sites within a network that was based on projections of future changes in the relative proportions of emigrants (species for which a site becomes climatically unsuitable), colonists (species for which a site becomes climatically suitable), and persistent species (species able to remain within a site despite the climatic change). Our approach also identifies key regions where additions to a network could enhance its future effectiveness. Using the sub-Saharan African Important Bird Area (IBA) network as a case study, we found that appropriate conservation strategies for individual sites varied widely across sub-Saharan Africa, and key regions where new sites could help increase network robustness varied in space and time. Although these results highlight the potential difficulties within any planning framework that seeks to address climate-change adaptation needs, they demonstrate that such planning frameworks are necessary, if current conservation strategies are to be adapted effectively, and feasible, if applied judiciously.}, }
@article {pmid21282624, year = {2011}, author = {Ciscar, JC and Iglesias, A and Feyen, L and Szabó, L and Van Regemorter, D and Amelung, B and Nicholls, R and Watkiss, P and Christensen, OB and Dankers, R and Garrote, L and Goodess, CM and Hunt, A and Moreno, A and Richards, J and Soria, A}, title = {Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {7}, pages = {2678-2683}, pmid = {21282624}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics ; Climate Change/*economics ; Computer Simulation ; *Environment ; Europe ; Floods/*economics ; *Models, Economic ; Risk Assessment ; Travel/*economics ; }, abstract = {Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2-1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.}, }
@article {pmid21280244, year = {2011}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {Climate change talks stumble on.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {R1-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2010.12.026}, pmid = {21280244}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid21275151, year = {2010}, author = {}, title = {Climate change adaptation in New York City: building a risk management response. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2010 Report.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1196}, number = {}, pages = {1-354}, pmid = {21275151}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; New York City ; Risk Management/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid21273162, year = {2011}, author = {Bush, KF and Luber, G and Kotha, SR and Dhaliwal, RS and Kapil, V and Pascual, M and Brown, DG and Frumkin, H and Dhiman, RC and Hess, J and Wilson, ML and Balakrishnan, K and Eisenberg, J and Kaur, T and Rood, R and Batterman, S and Joseph, A and Gronlund, CJ and Agrawal, A and Hu, H}, title = {Impacts of climate change on public health in India: future research directions.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {6}, pages = {765-770}, pmid = {21273162}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {//Howard Hughes Medical Institute/United States ; }, mesh = {Biomedical Research/trends ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Humans ; India ; International Cooperation ; *Public Health ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and associated increases in climate variability will likely further exacerbate global health disparities. More research is needed, particularly in developing countries, to accurately predict the anticipated impacts and inform effective interventions.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Building on the information presented at the 2009 Joint Indo-U.S. Workshop on Climate Change and Health in Goa, India, we reviewed relevant literature and data, addressed gaps in knowledge, and identified priorities and strategies for future research in India.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The scope of the problem in India is enormous, based on the potential for climate change and variability to exacerbate endemic malaria, dengue, yellow fever, cholera, and chikungunya, as well as chronic diseases, particularly among the millions of people who already experience poor sanitation, pollution, malnutrition, and a shortage of drinking water. Ongoing efforts to study these risks were discussed but remain scant. A universal theme of the recommendations developed was the importance of improving the surveillance, monitoring, and integration of meteorological, environmental, geospatial, and health data while working in parallel to implement adaptation strategies.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: It will be critical for India to invest in improvements in information infrastructure that are innovative and that promote interdisciplinary collaborations while embarking on adaptation strategies. This will require unprecedented levels of collaboration across diverse institutions in India and abroad. The data can be used in research on the likely impacts of climate change on health that reflect India's diverse climates and populations. Local human and technical capacities for risk communication and promoting adaptive behavior must also be enhanced.}, }
@article {pmid21272309, year = {2011}, author = {Beatty, GE and Provan, J}, title = {Comparative phylogeography of two related plant species with overlapping ranges in Europe, and the potential effects of climate change on their intraspecific genetic diversity.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {11}, number = {}, pages = {29}, pmid = {21272309}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Ericaceae/classification/*genetics/physiology ; Europe ; *Genetic Variation ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Models, Genetic ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; Phylogeography ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to use a combined phylogeographic and species distribution modelling approach to compare the glacial histories of two plant species with overlapping distributions, Orthilia secunda (one-sided wintergreen) and Monotropa hypopitys (yellow bird's nest). Phylogeographic analysis was carried out to determine the distribution of genetic variation across the range of each species and to test whether both correspond to the "classic" model of high diversity in the south, with decreasing diversity at higher latitudes, or whether the cold-adapted O. secunda might retain more genetic variation in northern populations. In addition, projected species distributions based on a future climate scenario were modelled to assess how changes in the species ranges might impact on total intraspecific diversity in both cases.<br><br>RESULTS: Palaeodistribution modelling and phylogeographic analysis using multiple genetic markers (chloroplast trnS-trnG region, nuclear ITS and microsatellites for O. secunda; chloroplast rps2, nuclear ITS and microsatellites for M. hypopitys) indicated that both species persisted throughout the Last Glacial Maximum in southern refugia. For both species, the majority of the genetic diversity was concentrated in these southerly populations, whereas those in recolonized areas generally exhibited lower levels of diversity, particularly in M. hypopitys. Species distribution modelling based on projected future climate indicated substantial changes in the ranges of both species, with a loss of southern and central populations, and a potential northward expansion for the temperate M. hypopitys.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Both Orthilia secunda and Monotropa hypopitys appear to have persisted through the LGM in Europe in southern refugia. The boreal O. secunda, however, has retained a larger proportion of its genetic diversity in more northerly populations outside these refugial areas than the temperate M. hypopitys. Given that future species distribution modelling suggests northern range shifts and loss of suitable habitat in the southern parts of the species' current distributions, extinction of genetically diverse rear edge populations could have a significant effect in the rangewide intraspecific diversity of both species, but particularly in M. hypopitys.}, }
@article {pmid21268982, year = {2010}, author = {Rödder, D and Kielgast, J and Lötters, S}, title = {Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Diseases of aquatic organisms}, volume = {92}, number = {2-3}, pages = {201-207}, doi = {10.3354/dao02197}, pmid = {21268982}, issn = {0177-5103}, mesh = {*Amphibians ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Chytridiomycota/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; *Human Activities ; Mycoses/microbiology/*veterinary ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid21268870, year = {2010}, author = {Shanin, VN and Mikhaĭlov, AV and Bykhovets, SS and Komarov, AS}, title = {[Global climate change and carbon balance in forest ecosystems of boreal zones: imitating modeling as a forecast tool].}, journal = {Izvestiia Akademii nauk. Seriia biologicheskaia}, volume = {}, number = {6}, pages = {719-730}, pmid = {21268870}, issn = {1026-3470}, mesh = {Carbon/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Models, Biological ; Trees/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The individually oriented system of the EFIMOD models simulating carbon and nitrogen flows in forest ecosystems has been used for forecasting the response of forest ecosystems to various forest exploitation regimes with climate change. As input data the forest management materials for the Manturovskii forestry of the Kostroma region were used. It has been shown that increase of mid-annual temperatures and rainfall influence the redistribution of carbon and nitrogen supply in organic form: supply increase of these elements in phytomass simultaneously with depletion of them in soil occurred. The most carbon and nitrogen accumulation in forest ecosystems occurs in the scenario without felling. In addition, in this scenario only the ecosystems of the modeling territory function as a carbon drain; in the other two scenarios (with selective and total felling) they function as a source of carbon. Climate changes greatly influence the decomposition rate of organic matter in soil, which leads to increased emission of carbonic acid. The second consequence of the increase in the destruction rate is nitrogen increase in the soil in a form available for plants that entails production increase of plantations.}, }
@article {pmid21265568, year = {2011}, author = {Kagawa, S and Nansai, K and Kondo, Y and Hubacek, K and Suh, S and Minx, J and Kudoh, Y and Tasaki, T and Nakamura, S}, title = {Role of motor vehicle lifetime extension in climate change policy.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {1184-1191}, doi = {10.1021/es1034552}, pmid = {21265568}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Choice Behavior ; Commerce ; Community Participation ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Motor Vehicles/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Vehicle Emissions/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Vehicle replacement schemes such as the "cash for clunkers" program in the U.S. and the "scrappage scheme" in the UK have featured prominently in the economic stimulation packages initiated by many governments to cope with the global economic crisis. While these schemes were designed as economic instruments to support the vehicle production industry, governments have also claimed that these programs have environmental benefits such as reducing CO2 emissions by bringing more fuel-efficient vehicles onto the roads. However, little evidence is available to support this claim as current energy and environmental accounting models are inadequate for comprehensively capturing the economic and environmental trade-offs associated with changes in product life and product use. We therefore developed a new dynamic model to quantify the carbon emissions due to changes in product life and consumer behavior related to product use. Based on a case study of Japanese vehicle use during the 1990-2000 period, we found that extending, not shortening, the lifetime of a vehicle helps to reduce life-cycle CO2 emissions throughout the supply chain. Empirical results also revealed that even if the fuel economy of less fuel-efficient ordinary passenger vehicles were improved to levels comparable with those of the best available technology, i.e. hybrid passenger cars currently being produced in Japan, total CO2 emissions would decrease by only 0.2%. On the other hand, we also find that extending the lifetime of a vehicle contributed to a moderate increase in emissions of health-relevant air pollutants (NOx, HC, and CO) during the use phase. From the results, this study concludes that the effects of global warming and air pollution can be somewhat moderated and that these problems can be addressed through specific policy instruments directed at increasing the market for hybrid cars as well as extending lifetime of automobiles, which is contrary to the current wisdom.}, }
@article {pmid21265442, year = {2010}, author = {Marcarelli, AM and Van Kirk, RW and Baxter, CV}, title = {Predicting effects of hydrologic alteration and climate change on ecosystem metabolism in a western U.S. river.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {2081-2088}, doi = {10.1890/09-2364.1}, pmid = {21265442}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Human Activities ; Idaho ; Monte Carlo Method ; Plants ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {We estimated past and future hydrographs and patterns of ecosystem metabolism in a fifth-order river of the western United States, where water use and climate change are both expected to alter hydrology in the immediate future. We first reconstructed the unregulated hydrograph to estimate how the current hydrograph has been altered. Due to consumptive use, 95% as irrigation, current discharge during summer (July-September) was 70% lower than would occur if the river was unregulated. We then predicted a future hydrograph including effects of consumptive use and climate change; the magnitude of flow changes were minor under this regime relative to those already manifested by consumptive uses. We used time-series regression and a six-year continuous record of open-water metabolism to demonstrate that, under the current hydrologic regime, gross primary production (GPP) was dependent on both water temperature and flow and that ecosystem respiration (ER) was most dependent on temperature. Monte Carlo simulations under the three hydrologic regimes and three temperature scenario's (current, +2 degrees C, +4 degrees C) suggested that flow, but not temperature, may have profound effects on the magnitude of metabolism. Linking temporally detailed analyses of ecological function and hydrology may lead to better understanding and management of changes due to basin-scale water use and/or global-scale climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21265329, year = {2011}, author = {de Sherbinin, A and Warner, K and Ehrhart, C}, title = {Casualties of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {304}, number = {1}, pages = {64-71}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0111-64}, pmid = {21265329}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Emigration and Immigration ; Floods ; Humans ; Mexico ; Mozambique ; Population Density ; Rain ; Vietnam ; }, }
@article {pmid21262825, year = {2011}, author = {Beaumont, LJ and Pitman, A and Perkins, S and Zimmermann, NE and Yoccoz, NG and Thuiller, W}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {6}, pages = {2306-2311}, pmid = {21262825}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to <2 °C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The "Global 200" comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional biodiversity [Olson DM, Dinerstein E (2002) Ann Mo Bot Gard 89:199-224]. We assess the likelihood that, by 2070, these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in 1961-1990. Using >600 realizations from climate model ensembles, we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns >2 SDs (2σ) of the 1961-1990 baseline, including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of <2 °C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions, and mangroves, face extreme conditions earliest, some with <1 °C warming. In contrast, few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average, precipitation regimes do not exceed 2σ of the baseline period, although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further, the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100.}, }
@article {pmid21262719, year = {2010}, author = {Oxenham, M}, title = {Climate change and economic priorities.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {167}, number = {25}, pages = {985}, doi = {10.1136/vr.c7078}, pmid = {21262719}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change/*economics ; Humans ; Research/*economics ; }, }
@article {pmid21259264, year = {2011}, author = {Sheffield, PE and Weinberger, KR and Kinney, PL}, title = {Climate change, aeroallergens, and pediatric allergic disease.}, journal = {The Mount Sinai journal of medicine, New York}, volume = {78}, number = {1}, pages = {78-84}, pmid = {21259264}, issn = {1931-7581}, support = {T32ES007322/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T32 ES007322-09/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; ES09089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T32 HD049311/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; T32 ES007322/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; 5T32 HD049311/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; L40 ES017745/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; L40 ES017745-01/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES009089/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P30 ES009089-09/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; T32 HD049311-03/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; Allergens/*adverse effects ; Child ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*etiology ; }, abstract = {The degree to which aeroallergens are contributing to the global increase in pediatric allergic disease is incompletely understood. We review the evidence that links climate change to changes in aeroallergens such as pollen and outdoor mold concentrations and, subsequently, aeroallergen association with pediatric allergic disease. We specifically explore the evidence on both the exacerbation and the development of allergic disease in children related to outdoor pollen and mold concentrations. Pediatric allergic diseases include atopic dermatitis or eczema, allergic rhinitis or hay fever, and some types of asthma in children, typically defined as < 18 years of age. We discuss how the timing of aeroallergen exposure both in utero and in childhood could be associated with allergies. We conclude that the magnitude and type of health impacts due to climate change will depend on improved understanding of the relationship between climatic variables, multiple allergen factors, and allergic disease. Improved public-health strategies such as adequate humidity control, optimum air filtration and ventilation, and improved anticipatory public-health messaging will be critical to adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid21259061, year = {2011}, author = {Rowland, EL and Davison, JE and Graumlich, LJ}, title = {Approaches to evaluating climate change impacts on species: a guide to initiating the adaptation planning process.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {47}, number = {3}, pages = {322-337}, pmid = {21259061}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Environment ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Planning Techniques ; }, abstract = {Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future.}, }
@article {pmid21257424, year = {2010}, author = {McIntyre, KM and Setzkorn, C and Baylis, M and Waret-Szkuta, A and Caminade, C and Morse, AP and Akin, SA and Huynen, M and Martens, P and Morand, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on human and animal health.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {167}, number = {15}, pages = {586}, doi = {10.1136/vr.c5523}, pmid = {21257424}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {*Animal Welfare ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*veterinary ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid21257353, year = {2011}, author = {Massad, E and Coutinho, FA and Lopez, LF and da Silva, DR}, title = {Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections.}, journal = {Physics of life reviews}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {169-199}, doi = {10.1016/j.plrev.2011.01.001}, pmid = {21257353}, issn = {1873-1457}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/*transmission ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Disease Vectors ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/virology ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases.}, }
@article {pmid21253671, year = {2011}, author = {Aucamp, PJ and Björn, LO and Lucas, R}, title = {Questions and answers about the environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: 2010 assessment.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {301-316}, doi = {10.1039/c0pp90045a}, pmid = {21253671}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Air Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Aquatic Organisms/radiation effects ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Bacteria/radiation effects ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Chlorofluorocarbons/chemistry ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crops, Agricultural/radiation effects ; Ecosystem ; *Environment ; Eye/radiation effects ; Fluorocarbons/chemistry ; Fungi/radiation effects ; Humans ; Immune System/radiation effects ; International Cooperation ; Ozone/*chemistry ; Plastics/chemistry ; Radiation Protection ; Skin/radiation effects ; Solar Energy ; Time Factors ; Trees/radiation effects ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; Wood/chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid21253670, year = {2011}, author = {Norval, M and Lucas, RM and Cullen, AP and de Gruijl, FR and Longstreth, J and Takizawa, Y and van der Leun, JC}, title = {The human health effects of ozone depletion and interactions with climate change.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {199-225}, doi = {10.1039/c0pp90044c}, pmid = {21253670}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Ozone/*analysis/chemistry ; *Public Health ; Radiation Protection ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; Vitamin D/biosynthesis/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer has led to increased solar UV-B radiation (280-315 nm) at the surface of the Earth. This change is likely to have had an impact on human exposure to UV-B radiation with consequential detrimental and beneficial effects on health, although behavioural changes in society over the past 60 years or so with regard to sun exposure are of considerable importance. The present report concentrates on information published since our previous report in 2007. The adverse effects of UV radiation are primarily on the eye and the skin. While solar UV radiation is a recognised risk factor for some types of cataract and for pterygium, the evidence is less strong, although increasing, for ocular melanoma, and is equivocal at present for age-related macular degeneration. For the skin, the most common harmful outcome is skin cancer, including melanoma and the non-melanoma skin cancers, basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. The incidence of all three of these tumours has risen significantly over the past five decades, particularly in people with fair skin, and is projected to continue to increase, thus posing a significant world-wide health burden. Overexposure to the sun is the major identified environmental risk factor in skin cancer, in association with various genetic risk factors and immune effects. Suppression of some aspects of immunity follows exposure to UV radiation and the consequences of this modulation for the immune control of infectious diseases, for vaccination and for tumours, are additional concerns. In a common sun allergy (polymorphic light eruption), there is an imbalance in the immune response to UV radiation, resulting in a sun-evoked rash. The major health benefit of exposure to solar UV-B radiation is the production of vitamin D. Vitamin D plays a crucial role in bone metabolism and is also implicated in protection against a wide range of diseases. Although there is some evidence supporting protective effects for a range of internal cancers, this is not yet conclusive, but strongest for colorectal cancer, at present. A role for vitamin D in protection against several autoimmune diseases has been studied, with the most convincing results to date for multiple sclerosis. Vitamin D is starting to be assessed for its protective properties against several infectious and coronary diseases. Current methods for protecting the eye and the skin from the adverse effects of solar UV radiation are evaluated, including seeking shade, wearing protective clothing and sunglasses, and using sunscreens. Newer possibilities are considered such as creams that repair UV-induced DNA damage, and substances applied topically to the skin or eaten in the diet that protect against some of the detrimental effects of sun exposure. It is difficult to provide easily understandable public health messages regarding "safe" sun exposure, so that the positive effects of vitamin D production are balanced against the negative effects of excessive exposure. The international response to ozone depletion has included the development and deployment of replacement technologies and chemicals. To date, limited evidence suggests that substitutes for the ozone-depleting substances do not have significant effects on human health. In addition to stratospheric ozone depletion, climate change is predicted to affect human health, and potential interactions between these two parameters are considered. These include altering the risk of developing skin tumours, infectious diseases and various skin diseases, in addition to altering the efficiency by which pathogenic microorganisms are inactivated in the environment.}, }
@article {pmid21253669, year = {2011}, author = {}, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: 2010 assessment. Executive summary.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {178-181}, doi = {10.1039/c0pp90043e}, pmid = {21253669}, issn = {1474-9092}, }
@article {pmid21253667, year = {2011}, author = {Bornman, JF and Paul, N and Tang, X}, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: 2010 assessment. Introduction.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {174}, doi = {10.1039/c0pp90041a}, pmid = {21253667}, issn = {1474-9092}, }
@article {pmid21253664, year = {2011}, author = {Andrady, AL and Hamid, H and Torikai, A}, title = {Effects of solar UV and climate change on materials.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {292-300}, doi = {10.1039/c0pp90038a}, pmid = {21253664}, issn = {1474-9092}, abstract = {Increased solar ultraviolet radiation (UV) reaches the surface of the Earth as a consequence of a depleted stratospheric ozone layer and changes in factors such as cloud cover, land-use patterns and aerosols. Climate change is expected to result in a 1.1-6.4 °C increase in average temperature by the end of this century, depending on location. Increased levels of UV radiation, especially at high ambient temperatures, are well-known to accelerate the degradation of plastics, rubber and wood materials, thereby reducing their useful lifetimes in outdoor applications. Plastics used routinely outdoors are generally light-stabilized using chemical additives to ensure their useful lifetimes. Wood products are coated for resistance to UV radiation, since photodamage results in enhanced water-susceptibility and their consequent biodegradation under outdoor exposure. The increased damage to materials due to an increased UV-B (280-315 nm) component in solar radiation reaching the Earth likely can be countered using light-stabilization technologies, surface coatings or, in most instances, by substituting the materials in question with greater UV radiation-resistant materials. However, even if these options could be used with all common materials affected, they will invariably result in higher costs. Reliable estimates of the incremental costs involved depend on the anticipated damage and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies employed. We summarize and assess recent findings on light-induced damage to plastic materials, including wood-plastics composites and nanocomposites. The combined effect of increased UV-B radiation and ambient temperature is of special interest, since these two factors represent particularly harsh environmental conditions for most materials. Advances in approaches to light stabilization of materials are also assessed.}, }
@article {pmid21253663, year = {2011}, author = {Zepp, RG and Erickson, DJ and Paul, ND and Sulzberger, B}, title = {Effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {261-279}, doi = {10.1039/c0pp90037k}, pmid = {21253663}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; Environmental Pollutants/toxicity ; Feedback/*radiation effects ; Humans ; Ultraviolet Rays/*adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions of these effects with climate change, including feedbacks on climate. Such interactions occur in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. While there is significant uncertainty in the quantification of these effects, they could accelerate the rate of atmospheric CO(2) increase and subsequent climate change beyond current predictions. The effects of predicted changes in climate and solar UV radiation on carbon cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are expected to vary significantly between regions. The balance of positive and negative effects on terrestrial carbon cycling remains uncertain, but the interactions between UV radiation and climate change are likely to contribute to decreasing sink strength in many oceanic regions. Interactions between climate and solar UV radiation will affect cycling of elements other than carbon, and so will influence the concentration of greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases. For example, increases in oxygen-deficient regions of the ocean caused by climate change are projected to enhance the emissions of nitrous oxide, an important greenhouse and ozone-depleting gas. Future changes in UV-induced transformations of aquatic and terrestrial contaminants could have both beneficial and adverse effects. Taken in total, it is clear that the future changes in UV radiation coupled with human-caused global change will have large impacts on biogeochemical cycles at local, regional and global scales.}, }
@article {pmid21253662, year = {2011}, author = {Häder, DP and Helbling, EW and Williamson, CE and Worrest, RC}, title = {Effects of UV radiation on aquatic ecosystems and interactions with climate change.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {242-260}, doi = {10.1039/c0pp90036b}, pmid = {21253662}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/drug effects/physiology/*radiation effects ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Ultraviolet Rays/*adverse effects ; Water Pollutants/toxicity ; }, abstract = {The health of freshwater and marine ecosystems is critical to life on Earth. The impact of solar UV-B radiation is one potential stress factor that can have a negative impact on the health of certain species within these ecosystems. Although there is a paucity of data and information regarding the effect of UV-B radiation on total ecosystem structure and function, several recent studies have addressed the effects on various species within each trophic level. Climate change, acid deposition, and changes in other anthropogenic stressors such as pollutants alter UV exposure levels in inland and coastal marine waters. These factors potentially have important consequences for a variety of aquatic organisms including waterborne human pathogens. Recent results have demonstrated the negative impacts of exposure to UV-B radiation on primary producers, including effects on cyanobacteria, phytoplankton, macroalgae and aquatic plants. UV-B radiation is an environmental stressor for many aquatic consumers, including zooplankton, crustaceans, amphibians, fish, and corals. Many aquatic producers and consumers rely on avoidance strategies, repair mechanisms and the synthesis of UV-absorbing substances for protection. However, there has been relatively little information generated regarding the impact of solar UV-B radiation on species composition within natural ecosystems or on the interaction of organisms between trophic levels within those ecosystems. There remains the question as to whether a decrease in population size of the more sensitive primary producers would be compensated for by an increase in the population size of more tolerant species, and therefore whether there would be a net negative impact on the absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide by these ecosystems. Another question is whether there would be a significant impact on the quantity and quality of nutrients cycling through the food web, including the generation of food proteins for humans. Interactive effects of UV radiation with changes in other stressors, including climate change and pollutants, are likely to be particularly important.}, }
@article {pmid21253661, year = {2011}, author = {Ballaré, CL and Caldwell, MM and Flint, SD and Robinson, SA and Bornman, JF}, title = {Effects of solar ultraviolet radiation on terrestrial ecosystems. Patterns, mechanisms, and interactions with climate change.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {226-241}, doi = {10.1039/c0pp90035d}, pmid = {21253661}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Plants/radiation effects ; Radiation Monitoring ; *Solar Energy ; Ultraviolet Rays/*adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Ultraviolet radiation (UV) is a minor fraction of the solar spectrum reaching the ground surface. In this assessment we summarize the results of previous work on the effects of the UV-B component (280-315 nm) on terrestrial ecosystems, and draw attention to important knowledge gaps in our understanding of the interactive effects of UV radiation and climate change. We highlight the following points: (i) The effects of UV-B on the growth of terrestrial plants are relatively small and, because the Montreal Protocol has been successful in limiting ozone depletion, the reduction in plant growth caused by increased UV-B radiation in areas affected by ozone decline since 1980 is unlikely to have exceeded 6%. (ii) Solar UV-B radiation has large direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects on canopy arthropods and microorganisms. Therefore, trophic interactions (herbivory, decomposition) in terrestrial ecosystems appear to be sensitive to variations in UV-B irradiance. (iii) Future variations in UV radiation resulting from changes in climate and land-use may have more important consequences on terrestrial ecosystems than the changes in UV caused by ozone depletion. This is because the resulting changes in UV radiation may affect a greater range of ecosystems, and will not be restricted solely to the UV-B component. (iv) Several ecosystem processes that are not particularly sensitive to UV-B radiation can be strongly affected by UV-A (315-400 nm) radiation. One example is the physical degradation of plant litter. Increased photodegradation (in response to reduced cloudiness or canopy cover) will lead to increased carbon release to the atmosphere via direct and indirect mechanisms.}, }
@article {pmid21253660, year = {2011}, author = {McKenzie, RL and Aucamp, PJ and Bais, AF and Björn, LO and Ilyas, M and Madronich, S}, title = {Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {182-198}, doi = {10.1039/c0pp90034f}, pmid = {21253660}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Ozone/*analysis/chemistry ; *Radiation Monitoring ; *Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {The Montreal Protocol is working, but it will take several decades for ozone to return to 1980 levels. The atmospheric concentrations of ozone depleting substances are decreasing, and ozone column amounts are no longer decreasing. Mid-latitude ozone is expected to return to 1980 levels before mid-century, slightly earlier than predicted previously. However, the recovery rate will be slower at high latitudes. Springtime ozone depletion is expected to continue to occur at polar latitudes, especially in Antarctica, in the next few decades. Because of the success of the Protocol, increases in UV-B radiation have been small outside regions affected by the Antarctic ozone hole, and have been difficult to detect. There is a large variability in UV-B radiation due to factors other than ozone, such as clouds and aerosols. There are few long-term measurements available to confirm the increases that would have occurred as a result of ozone depletion. At mid-latitudes UV-B irradiances are currently only slightly greater than in 1980 (increases less than ~5%), but increases have been substantial at high and polar latitudes where ozone depletion has been larger. Without the Montreal Protocol, peak values of sunburning UV radiation could have been tripled by 2065 at mid-northern latitudes. This would have had serious consequences for the environment and for human health. There are strong interactions between ozone depletion and changes in climate induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs). Ozone depletion affects climate, and climate change affects ozone. The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has had a marked effect on climate change. The calculated reduction in radiative forcing due to the phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) far exceeds that from the measures taken under the Kyoto protocol for the reduction of GHGs. Thus the phase-out of CFCs is currently tending to counteract the increases in surface temperature due to increased GHGs. The amount of stratospheric ozone can also be affected by the increases in the concentration of GHGs, which lead to decreased temperatures in the stratosphere and accelerated circulation patterns. These changes tend to decrease total ozone in the tropics and increase total ozone at mid and high latitudes. Changes in circulation induced by changes in ozone can also affect patterns of surface wind and rainfall. The projected changes in ozone and clouds may lead to large decreases in UV at high latitudes, where UV is already low; and to small increases at low latitudes, where it is already high. This could have important implications for health and ecosystems. Compared to 1980, UV-B irradiance towards the end of the 21st century is projected to be lower at mid to high latitudes by between 5 and 20% respectively, and higher by 2-3% in the low latitudes. However, these projections must be treated with caution because they also depend strongly on changes in cloud cover, air pollutants, and aerosols, all of which are influenced by climate change, and their future is uncertain. Strong interactions between ozone depletion and climate change and uncertainties in the measurements and models limit our confidence in predicting the future UV radiation. It is therefore important to improve our understanding of the processes involved, and to continue monitoring ozone and surface UV spectral irradiances both from the surface and from satellites so we can respond to unexpected changes in the future.}, }
@article {pmid21252424, year = {2011}, author = {Delpla, I and Baures, E and Jung, AV and Clement, M and Thomas, O}, title = {Issues of drinking water quality of small scale water services towards climate change.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {63}, number = {2}, pages = {227-232}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2011.038}, pmid = {21252424}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Air ; Carbon/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; France ; Organic Chemicals/analysis ; Temperature ; Water/*standards ; Water Movements ; Water Purification ; Water Supply/*analysis ; }, abstract = {As climate change could impact water quantity and quality, important concerns are related to water quality degradation in small scale water services (SSWS). SSWS using surface waters resources (rivers and lakes) for drinking water production are particularly vulnerable to short term transient events due to their low adaptation capacity and their lack of support and technical knowledge compared to major centralized systems. Based on weather and water quality databases, a case study was conducted on a SSWS in Brittany (France) pumping from surface water. Results show an important vulnerability in treatment efficiency related to the lowest and highest river flows and provide first assumptions about the impacts of an increase in extreme weather events with climate change on drinking water quality.}, }
@article {pmid21249228, year = {2011}, author = {Fox, NJ and White, PC and McClean, CJ and Marion, G and Evans, A and Hutchings, MR}, title = {Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {e16126}, pmid = {21249228}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Epidemics ; *Fasciola hepatica ; Fascioliasis/*transmission ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Risk ; Seasons ; United Kingdom ; Wales ; }, abstract = {Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.}, }
@article {pmid21247099, year = {2011}, author = {Voorhees, AS and Fann, N and Fulcher, C and Dolwick, P and Hubbell, B and Bierwagen, B and Morefield, P}, title = {Climate change-related temperature impacts on warm season heat mortality: a proof-of-concept methodology using BenMAP.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {45}, number = {4}, pages = {1450-1457}, doi = {10.1021/es102820y}, pmid = {21247099}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/*mortality ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Forecasting ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Incidence ; *Models, Theoretical ; Prospective Studies ; Seasons ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and is likely to increase heat-related human health morbidity and mortality risks. The objective of this work was to develop a proof-of-concept approach for estimating excess heat-related premature deaths in the continental United States resulting from potential changes in future temperature using the BenMAP model. In this approach we adapt the methods and tools that the US Environmental Protection Agency uses to assess air pollution health impacts by incorporating temperature modeling and heat mortality health impact functions. This new method demonstrates the ability to apply the existing temperature-health literature to quantify prospective changes in climate-sensitive heat-related mortality. We compared estimates of future temperature with and without climate change and applied heat-mortality health functions to estimate relative changes in heat-related premature mortality. Using the A1B emissions scenario, we applied the GISS-II global circulation model downscaled to 36-km using MM5 and formatted using the Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor. For averaged temperatures derived from the 5 years 2048-2052 relative to 1999-2003 we estimated for the warm season May-September a national U.S. estimate of annual incidence of heat-related mortality to be 3700-3800 from all causes, 3500 from cardiovascular disease, and 21 000-27 000 from nonaccidental death, applying various health impact functions. Our estimates of mortality, produced to validate the application of a new methodology, suggest the importance of quantifying heat impacts in economic assessments of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21245326, year = {2011}, author = {Yakob, L and Mumby, PJ}, title = {Climate change induces demographic resistance to disease in novel coral assemblages.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {5}, pages = {1967-1969}, pmid = {21245326}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; Ecosystem ; }, abstract = {Climate change is reshaping biological communities and has already generated novel ecosystems. The functioning of novel ecosystems could depart markedly from that of existing systems and therefore obscure the impacts of climate change. We illustrate this possibility for coral reefs, which are at the forefront of climatic stress. Disease has been a principal cause of reef degradation and is expected to worsen with increased future thermal stress. However, using a field-tested epizoological model, we show that high population turnover within novel ecosystems enhances coral resistance to epizootics. Thus, disease could become a less important driver of change in the future. We emphasize the need to move away from projections based on historic trends toward predictions that account for novel behavior of ecosystems under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21242153, year = {2011}, author = {Hanna, EG and Bell, E and King, D and Woodruff, R}, title = {Climate change and Australian agriculture: a review of the threats facing rural communities and the health policy landscape.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {23}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {105S-18}, doi = {10.1177/1010539510391459}, pmid = {21242153}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Rural Health ; Rural Population ; }, abstract = {Population health is a function of social and environmental health determinants. Climate change is predicted to bring significant alterations to ecological systems on which human health and livelihoods depend; the air, water, plant, and animal health. Agricultural systems are intrinsically linked with environmental conditions, which are already under threat in much of southern Australian because of rising heat and protracted drying. The direct impact of increasing heat waves on human physiology and survival has recently been well studied. More diffusely, increasing drought periods may challenge the viability of agriculture in some regions, and hence those communities that depend on primary production. A worst case scenario may herald the collapse of some communities. Human health impacts arising from such transition would be profound. This article summarizes existing rural health challenges and presents the current evidence plus future predictions of climate change impacts on Australian agriculture to argue the need for significant augmentation of public health and existing health policy frameworks. The article concludes by suggesting that adaptation to climate change requires planning for worst case scenario outcomes to avert catastrophic impacts on rural communities. This will involve national policy planning as much as regional-level leadership for rapid development of adaptive strategies in agriculture and other key areas of rural communities.}, }
@article {pmid21242152, year = {2011}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Bennett, CM}, title = {Climate change, aeroallergens, natural particulates, and human health in Australia: state of the science and policy.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {23}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {46S-53}, doi = {10.1177/1010539510391771}, pmid = {21242152}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Allergens/*adverse effects ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/*adverse effects ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {The objective of this article is to systematically review and assess what is known about the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and other naturally derived particulates, and the associated human health impacts, and to examine responses to these in Australia, focusing on adaptation. Prior research was searched using several general and discipline-specific research databases. The review concludes that whereas there is little original research on the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and other naturally derived particulates in Australia, or the human health consequences of these, research from overseas suggests that these impacts may be adverse and of considerable magnitude. More research is required to assess the impacts of climate change on these airborne particles and associated diseases in Australia and other parts of the Asia-Pacific. There are important policy implications of this review. There is a need for enhanced monitoring of the atmospheric environment and associated health conditions in Australia. Education about climate change and human health in general, and air quality and related diseases specifically, is required for the community, health professionals, and others. Improvements are needed in the preparedness of infrastructure, such as health care facilities and early warning systems, particularly for aeroallergens, and all of these adaptive policy responses require further research.}, }
@article {pmid21242151, year = {2011}, author = {Bambrick, HJ and Capon, AG and Barnett, GB and Beaty, RM and Burton, AJ}, title = {Climate change and health in the urban environment: adaptation opportunities in Australian cities.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {23}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {67S-79}, doi = {10.1177/1010539510391774}, pmid = {21242151}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Australia ; *City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Environment Design ; Humans ; Population Density ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Urban Health ; }, abstract = {Urban populations are growing rapidly throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Cities are vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change because of their concentration of people and infrastructure, the physical (geographical, material, and structural) attributes of the built environment, and the ecological interdependence with the urban ecosystem. Australia is one of the most highly urbanized countries in the region and its already variable climate is set to become hotter and drier with climate change. Climate change in Australia is expected to increase morbidity and mortality from thermal stress, bacterial gastroenteritis, vector-borne disease, air pollution, flooding, and bushfires. The cost and availability of fresh water, food, and energy will also likely be affected. The more vulnerable urban populations, including the elderly, socioeconomically disadvantaged groups, and those with underlying chronic disease, will be most affected. Adaptation strategies need to address this underlying burden of disease and inequity as well as implement broad structural changes to building codes and urban design, and infrastructure capacity. In doing so, cities provide opportunities to realize "co-benefits" for health (eg, from increased levels of physical activity and improved air quality). With evidence that climate change is underway, the need for cities to be a focus in the development of climate adaptation strategies is becoming more urgent.}, }
@article {pmid21238867, year = {2011}, author = {Huang, C and Vaneckova, P and Wang, X and Fitzgerald, G and Guo, Y and Tong, S}, title = {Constraints and barriers to public health adaptation to climate change: a review of the literature.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {183-190}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2010.10.025}, pmid = {21238867}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Public Health Administration ; }, abstract = {Public health adaptation to climate change is an important issue and inevitably is needed to address the adverse health impacts of climate change over the next few decades. This paper provides an overview of the constraints and barriers to public health adaptation and explores future research directions in this emerging field. An extensive literature review was conducted in 2010 and published literature from 2000 to 2010 was retrieved. This review shows that public health adaptation essentially can operate at two levels, namely, adaptive-capacity building and implementation of adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to public health adaptation arising from uncertainties of future climate and socioeconomic conditions, as well as financial, technologic, institutional, social capital, and individual cognitive limits. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome these constraints and barriers. It is proposed here that high research priority should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health impacts of climate change, projections of health impacts under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios, identification of health co-benefits of mitigation strategies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options.}, }
@article {pmid21233375, year = {2011}, author = {Kiehl, J}, title = {Climate change. Lessons from Earth's past.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {331}, number = {6014}, pages = {158-159}, doi = {10.1126/science.1199380}, pmid = {21233375}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid21228875, year = {2011}, author = {Saraux, C and Le Bohec, C and Durant, JM and Viblanc, VA and Gauthier-Clerc, M and Beaune, D and Park, YH and Yoccoz, NG and Stenseth, NC and Le Maho, Y}, title = {Reliability of flipper-banded penguins as indicators of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {469}, number = {7329}, pages = {203-206}, pmid = {21228875}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Animal Identification Systems/ethics ; Animal Welfare/ethics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Artifacts ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/physiology ; Seawater/chemistry ; Spheniscidae/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Survival Rate ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted an urgent need to assess the responses of marine ecosystems to climate change. Because they lie in a high-latitude region, the Southern Ocean ecosystems are expected to be strongly affected by global warming. Using top predators of this highly productive ocean (such as penguins) as integrative indicators may help us assess the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. Yet most available information on penguin population dynamics is based on the controversial use of flipper banding. Although some reports have found the effects of flipper bands to be deleterious, some short-term (one-year) studies have concluded otherwise, resulting in the continuation of extensive banding schemes and the use of data sets thus collected to predict climate impact on natural populations. Here we show that banding of free-ranging king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) impairs both survival and reproduction, ultimately affecting population growth rate. Over the course of a 10-year longitudinal study, banded birds produced 41% [corrected] fewer chicks and had a survival rate 16 percentage points [corrected] lower than non-banded birds, demonstrating a massive long-term impact of banding and thus refuting the assumption that birds will ultimately adapt to being banded. Indeed, banded birds still arrived later for breeding at the study site and had longer foraging trips even after 10 years. One of our major findings is that responses of flipper-banded penguins to climate variability (that is, changes in sea surface temperature and in the Southern Oscillation index) differ from those of non-banded birds. We show that only long-term investigations may allow an evaluation of the impact of flipper bands and that every major life-history trait can be affected, calling into question the banding schemes still going on. In addition, our understanding of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems based on flipper-band data should be reconsidered.}, }
@article {pmid21227966, year = {2011}, author = {Polly, PD and Eronen, JT and Fred, M and Dietl, GP and Mosbrugger, V and Scheidegger, C and Frank, DC and Damuth, J and Stenseth, NC and Fortelius, M}, title = {History matters: ecometrics and integrative climate change biology.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {278}, number = {1709}, pages = {1131-1140}, pmid = {21227966}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change research is increasingly focusing on the dynamics among species, ecosystems and climates. Better data about the historical behaviours of these dynamics are urgently needed. Such data are already available from ecology, archaeology, palaeontology and geology, but their integration into climate change research is hampered by differences in their temporal and geographical scales. One productive way to unite data across scales is the study of functional morphological traits, which can form a common denominator for studying interactions between species and climate across taxa, across ecosystems, across space and through time-an approach we call 'ecometrics'. The sampling methods that have become established in palaeontology to standardize over different scales can be synthesized with tools from community ecology and climate change biology to improve our understanding of the dynamics among species, ecosystems, climates and earth systems over time. Developing these approaches into an integrative climate change biology will help enrich our understanding of the changes our modern world is undergoing.}, }
@article {pmid21226713, year = {2011}, author = {Hallinger, M and Wilmking, M}, title = {No change without a cause--why climate change remains the most plausible reason for shrub growth dynamics in Scandinavia.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {189}, number = {4}, pages = {902-908}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03624.x}, pmid = {21226713}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Plant Development ; Scandinavian and Nordic Countries ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid21221905, year = {2010}, author = {Kataev, GD and Okulova, NM}, title = {The Norwegian lemming Lemmus lemmus L. 1758 in the period of global warming.}, journal = {Doklady biological sciences : proceedings of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Biological sciences sections}, volume = {435}, number = {}, pages = {441-443}, doi = {10.1134/S0012496610060207}, pmid = {21221905}, issn = {0012-4966}, mesh = {Animals ; Arvicolinae/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; }, }
@article {pmid21220333, year = {2011}, author = {Carnicer, J and Coll, M and Ninyerola, M and Pons, X and Sánchez, G and Peñuelas, J}, title = {Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {108}, number = {4}, pages = {1474-1478}, pmid = {21220333}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Ecology/trends ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Food Chain ; Geography ; Insecta/physiology ; Linear Models ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Risk Assessment/trends ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Trees/classification/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987-2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change-driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage.}, }
@article {pmid21210676, year = {2011}, author = {Kirk, JL and Muir, DC and Antoniades, D and Douglas, MS and Evans, MS and Jackson, TA and Kling, H and Lamoureux, S and Lim, DS and Pienitz, R and Smol, JP and Stewart, K and Wang, X and Yang, F}, title = {Climate change and mercury accumulation in Canadian high and subarctic lakes.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {45}, number = {3}, pages = {964-970}, doi = {10.1021/es102840u}, pmid = {21210676}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Arctic Regions ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Mercury/*analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Mercury (Hg) profiles were compared to profiles of climate indicators including microfossil remains and algal-derived or S2 carbon (C) in dated sediment cores from 14 lakes spanning latitudinal and longitudinal gradients across the Canadian high and subarctic. Hg fluxes increased postindustrialization (post-∼1850) in 11 of these lakes (postindustrialization Hg fluxes (ΔHgF(F)) = 2-24 μg m(-2) y(-1)). Correction of HgF(F) for catchment contributions demonstrated that Hg deposition originating from catchment-independent factors, such as atmospheric deposition, increased since industrialization in all 14 lakes. Several of these lakes also showed postindustrial shifts in algal assemblages consistent with climate-induced changes. Eleven lakes showed post-1850s increases in S2F(F), suggesting that lake primary productivity has recently increased in the majority of our sites (ΔS2F(F) = 0.1-4 g m(-2) y(-1)). Other studies have interpreted significant relationships between Hg:S2 concentrations in Arctic sediment as support for the algal scavenging hypothesis, which postulates that Hg fluxes to Arctic sediments are largely driven by S2. However, in six of our lakes we observed no Hg:S2 relationship, and in one lake a significant negative Hg:S2 relationship was observed due to increased Hg and decreased S2 C deposition during the postindustrialization period. In six of the seven lakes where a significant positive Hg:S2 relationship was observed, algal assemblages either did not change through time or the timing of the shifts did not correspond to changes in Hg deposition. Our results demonstrate that, although Arctic lakes are experiencing a myriad of changes, including increased Hg and S2 deposition or changing algal assemblages, increased lake primary productivity does not appear to be driving changes in Hg fluxes to sediments.}, }
@article {pmid21208956, year = {2011}, author = {Baumann, H and Conover, DO}, title = {Adaptation to climate change: contrasting patterns of thermal-reaction-norm evolution in Pacific versus Atlantic silversides.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {278}, number = {1716}, pages = {2265-2273}, pmid = {21208956}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*physiology ; Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Pacific Ocean ; Seasons ; Smegmamorpha/*growth &amp; development ; Species Specificity ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {How organisms may adapt to rising global temperatures is uncertain, but concepts can emerge from studying adaptive physiological trait variations across existing spatial climate gradients. Many ectotherms, particularly fish, have evolved increasing genetic growth capacities with latitude (i.e. countergradient variation (CnGV) in growth), which are thought to be an adaptation primarily to strong gradients in seasonality. In contrast, evolutionary responses to gradients in mean temperature are often assumed to involve an alternative mode, 'thermal adaptation'. We measured thermal growth reaction norms in Pacific silverside populations (Atherinops affinis) occurring across a weak latitudinal temperature gradient with invariant seasonality along the North American Pacific coast. Instead of thermal adaptation, we found novel evidence for CnGV in growth, suggesting that CnGV is a ubiquitous mode of reaction-norm evolution in ectotherms even in response to weak spatial and, by inference, temporal climate gradients. A novel, large-scale comparison between ecologically equivalent Pacific versus Atlantic silversides (Menidia menidia) revealed how closely growth CnGV patterns reflect their respective climate gradients. While steep growth reaction norms and increasing growth plasticity with latitude in M. menidia mimicked the strong, highly seasonal Atlantic coastal gradient, shallow reaction norms and much smaller, latitude-independent growth plasticity in A. affinis resembled the weak Pacific latitudinal temperature gradient.}, }
@article {pmid21204862, year = {2011}, author = {Danovaro, R and Corinaldesi, C and Dell'anno, A and Fuhrman, JA and Middelburg, JJ and Noble, RT and Suttle, CA}, title = {Marine viruses and global climate change.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology reviews}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {993-1034}, doi = {10.1111/j.1574-6976.2010.00258.x}, pmid = {21204862}, issn = {1574-6976}, mesh = {Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Seawater/*virology ; Viruses/classification/genetics/*isolation &amp; purification/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans. Changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine viruses, including cascading effects on biogeochemical cycles, food webs, and the metabolic balance of the ocean. We discuss here a range of case studies of climate change and the potential consequences on virus function, viral assemblages and virus-host interactions. In turn, marine viruses influence directly and indirectly biogeochemical cycles, carbon sequestration capacity of the oceans and the gas exchange between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. We cannot yet predict whether the viruses will exacerbate or attenuate the magnitude of climate changes on marine ecosystems, but we provide evidence that marine viruses interact actively with the present climate change and are a key biotic component that is able to influence the oceans' feedback on climate change. Long-term and wide spatial-scale studies, and improved knowledge of host-virus dynamics in the world's oceans will permit the incorporation of the viral component into future ocean climate models and increase the accuracy of the predictions of the climate change impacts on the function of the oceans.}, }
@article {pmid21198660, year = {2010}, author = {Bloomberg, MR and Sachs, JD and Small, GM}, title = {Climate change adaptation in New York City: building a risk management response.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1196}, number = {}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05415.x}, pmid = {21198660}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; New York City ; Risk Management/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid21194816, year = {2011}, author = {Paoletti, E and Serengil, Y}, title = {Preface to the IUFRO special section "Adaptation of forest ecosystems to air pollution and climate change".}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {159}, number = {5}, pages = {1023}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2010.12.001}, pmid = {21194816}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; *Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid21193384, year = {2011}, author = {Peng, RD and Bobb, JF and Tebaldi, C and McDaniel, L and Bell, ML and Dominici, F}, title = {Toward a quantitative estimate of future heat wave mortality under global climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {5}, pages = {701-706}, pmid = {21193384}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {R01 ES012054/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 ES019560/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01-ES012054/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Infrared Rays/*adverse effects ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is anticipated to affect human health by changing the distribution of known risk factors. Heat waves have had debilitating effects on human mortality, and global climate models predict an increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves. The extent to which climate change will harm human health through changes in the distribution of heat waves and the sources of uncertainty in estimating these effects have not been studied extensively.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We estimated the future excess mortality attributable to heat waves under global climate change for a major U.S. city.<br><br>METHODS: We used a database comprising daily data from 1987 through 2005 on mortality from all nonaccidental causes, ambient levels of particulate matter and ozone, temperature, and dew point temperature for the city of Chicago, Illinois. We estimated the associations between heat waves and mortality in Chicago using Poisson regression models.<br><br>RESULTS: Under three different climate change scenarios for 2081-2100 and in the absence of adaptation, the city of Chicago could experience between 166 and 2,217 excess deaths per year attributable to heat waves, based on estimates from seven global climate models. We noted considerable variability in the projections of annual heat wave mortality; the largest source of variation was the choice of climate model.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The impact of future heat waves on human health will likely be profound, and significant gains can be expected by lowering future carbon dioxide emissions.}, }
@article {pmid21191440, year = {2010}, author = {Bennett, CM and McMichael, AJ}, title = {Non-heat related impacts of climate change on working populations.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {21191440}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {Environmental and social changes associated with climate change are likely to have impacts on the well-being, health, and productivity of many working populations across the globe. The ramifications of climate change for working populations are not restricted to increases in heat exposure. Other significant risks to worker health (including physical hazards from extreme weather events, infectious diseases, under-nutrition, and mental stresses) may be amplified by future climate change, and these may have substantial impacts at all scales of economic activity. Some of these risks are difficult to quantify, but pose a substantial threat to the viability and sustainability of some working populations. These impacts may occur in both developed and developing countries, although the latter category is likely to bear the heaviest burden.This paper explores some of the likely, non-heat-related health issues that climate change will have on working populations around the globe, now and in the future. These include exposures to various infectious diseases (vector-borne, zoonotic, and person-to-person), extreme weather events, stress and mental health issues, and malnutrition.}, }
@article {pmid21186685, year = {2010}, author = {Squatriti, P}, title = {The floods of 589 and climate change at the beginning of the Middle Ages: an Italian microhistory.}, journal = {Speculum}, volume = {85}, number = {4}, pages = {799-826}, doi = {10.1017/s0038713410002290}, pmid = {21186685}, issn = {0038-7134}, mesh = {*Agriculture/education/history ; Anthropology, Cultural/education/history ; Archaeology/education/history ; *Climate Change/history ; Disasters/history ; Ecology/education/history ; *Floods/history ; Food/history ; *Geography/education/history ; History, Medieval ; Italy/ethnology ; *Meteorology/education/history ; Public Health/history ; }, }
@article {pmid21184573, year = {2011}, author = {De Schamphelaere, KA and Glaholt, S and Asselman, J and Messiaen, M and De Coninck, D and Janssen, CR and Colbourne, JK and Shaw, JR}, title = {Will genetic adaptation of natural populations to chemical pollution result in lower or higher tolerance to future climate change?.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {141-143}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.149}, pmid = {21184573}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Daphnia/genetics/physiology ; Environmental Pollutants/*toxicity ; *Genetic Variation ; Microcystis/genetics/physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid21184172, year = {2011}, author = {Browne, AL and Bishop, BJ}, title = {Chasing our tails: psychological, institutional and societal paradoxes in natural resource management, sustainability, and climate change in Australia.}, journal = {American journal of community psychology}, volume = {47}, number = {3-4}, pages = {354-361}, doi = {10.1007/s10464-010-9390-1}, pmid = {21184172}, issn = {1573-2770}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; *Social Change ; }, abstract = {Natural Resource Management (NRM) and Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD) have been guiding frameworks in Australia for a number of decades. Recently, NRM and ESD have become central to climate change mitigation. In this paper, we explore the psychological paradoxes that function within climate change settings, with particular attention devoted to the way that research and development reinforces these paradoxes by advocating for participatory forms of inquiry. Paradox emerges in NRM at psychological, institutional, and organisational levels. Paradoxes are also features of different forms of democracy such as neoliberal and participatory democracy. Although NRM, ESD and climate change are often conceptualised as distinct issue domains, these policy areas are fundamentally interconnected in both theory and in practice. This interconnection between these policy and research settings, reflections on paradox, and the experience of incorporating community psychology into the paradoxical settings of NRM and climate change are captured in this paper.}, }
@article {pmid21182665, year = {2010}, author = {Hunter, M and Dinerstein, E and Hoekstra, J and Lindenmayer, D}, title = {A call to action for conserving biological diversity in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {1169-1171}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01569.x}, pmid = {21182665}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid21181255, year = {2011}, author = {Riemer, M and Reich, SM}, title = {Community psychology and global climate change: introduction to the special section.}, journal = {American journal of community psychology}, volume = {47}, number = {3-4}, pages = {349-353}, doi = {10.1007/s10464-010-9397-7}, pmid = {21181255}, issn = {1573-2770}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Psychology, Social ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is not just a distant environmental or future problem but a crisis that has a clear human face already causing the suffering of millions around the globe. It is an issue of high relevance for community psychologists and the communities we work with but has received little attention within the field of community psychology. This special section is intended to promote more thinking and dialogue on this important topic. Six articles are presented that feature both theoretical consideration and empirical research related to global climate change and related environmental issues.}, }
@article {pmid21175637, year = {2011}, author = {Paajanen, R and Julkunen-Tiitto, R and Nybakken, L and Petrelius, M and Tegelberg, R and Pusenius, J and Rousi, M and Kellomäki, S}, title = {Dark-leaved willow (Salix myrsinifolia) is resistant to three-factor (elevated CO2, temperature and UV-B-radiation) climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {190}, number = {1}, pages = {161-168}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03583.x}, pmid = {21175637}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; *Climate Change ; Flavonoids/metabolism ; Linear Models ; Phenols/metabolism ; Plant Leaves/*physiology/radiation effects ; Salicylic Acid/metabolism ; Salix/drug effects/*physiology/*radiation effects ; *Temperature ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), temperature (T) and ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation may affect plant growth and secondary chemistry in different directions, but the effect of the combination of the three factors has seldom been tested. Here, we grew four dark-leaved willow (Salix myrsinifolia) clones under combinations of ambient or elevated CO2, T and UV-B radiation in top-closed chambers for 7 wk. Elevated UV-B had no effects on growth or phenolic compounds, and there were no significant interactions between UV-B, CO2 and T. CO2 alone increased most growth parameters, but the magnitude of the effect varied among the clones. Total phenolics increased at elevated CO2 , whereas they decreased at elevated T. The responses varied between the clones. The results imply that dark-leaved willow are fairly resistant to the applied three-factor climate change, probably because of high constitutive defense. However, the interactions between clone and climate change factors implies that some clones are more susceptible than the species as a whole.}, }
@article {pmid21173280, year = {2010}, author = {Bodenstein, L}, title = {Regarding Anderegg et al. and climate change credibility.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {52}, pages = {E188; author reply E189}, pmid = {21173280}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Databases, Factual ; Ecology/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Opinion ; Research Personnel/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid21166095, year = {2011}, author = {Grulke, NE}, title = {The nexus of host and pathogen phenology: understanding the disease triangle with climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {189}, number = {1}, pages = {8-11}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03568.x}, pmid = {21166095}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Alnus/*microbiology/physiology ; Ascomycota/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; Plant Transpiration ; Stress, Physiological ; Water ; }, }
@article {pmid21164475, year = {2010}, author = {Derocher, AE}, title = {Climate change: The prospects for polar bears.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {468}, number = {7326}, pages = {905-906}, pmid = {21164475}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Ecosystem ; Endangered Species/*statistics &amp; numerical data/*trends ; Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Ice Cover ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Ursidae/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid21163561, year = {2011}, author = {de Vries, W and Posch, M}, title = {Modelling the impact of nitrogen deposition, climate change and nutrient limitations on tree carbon sequestration in Europe for the period 1900-2050.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {159}, number = {10}, pages = {2289-2299}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2010.11.023}, pmid = {21163561}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Biodiversity ; Carbon/analysis ; *Carbon Sequestration ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Europe ; *Models, Chemical ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Trees/drug effects/*physiology ; }, abstract = {We modelled the combined effects of past and expected future changes in climate and nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration by European forests for the period 1900-2050. Two scenarios for deposition (current legislation and maximum technically feasible reductions) and two climate scenarios (no change and SRES A1 scenario) were used. Furthermore, the possible limitation of forest growth by calcium, magnesium, potassium and phosphorus is investigated. The area and age structure of the forests was assumed to stay constant to observations during the period 1970-1990. Under these assumptions, the simulations show that the change in forest growth and carbon sequestration in the past is dominated by changes in nitrogen deposition, while climate change is the major driver for future carbon sequestration. However, its impact is reduced by nitrogen availability. Furthermore, limitations in base cations, especially magnesium, and in phosphorus may significantly affect predicted growth in the future.}, }
@article {pmid21160554, year = {2010}, author = {Preet, R and Nilsson, M and Schumann, B and Evengård, B}, title = {The gender perspective in climate change and global health.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {21160554}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Population health is a primary goal of sustainable development. United Nations international conferences like the Beijing Platform for Action have highlighted the key role of women in ensuring sustainable development. In the context of climate change, women are affected the most while they display knowledge and skills to orient themselves toward climate adaptation activities within their societies.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To investigate how the gender perspective is addressed as an issue in research and policy-making concerning climate change and global health.<br><br>METHODS: A broad literature search was undertaken using the databases Pubmed and Web of Science to explore the terms 'climate change,' 'health,' 'gender,' and 'policy.' Climate change and health-related policy documents of the World Health Organization (WHO) and National Communications and National Adaptation Programs of Action reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of selected countries were studied. Assessment guidelines to review these reports were developed from this study's viewpoint.<br><br>RESULTS: The database search results showed almost no articles when the four terms were searched together. The WHO documents lacked a gender perspective in their approach and future recommendations on climate policies. The reviewed UN reports were also neutral to gender perspective except one of the studied documents.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Despite recognizing the differential effects of climate change on health of women and men as a consequence of complex social contexts and adaptive capacities, the study finds gender to be an underrepresented or non-existing variable both in research and studied policy documents in the field of climate change and health.}, }
@article {pmid21160553, year = {2010}, author = {Langkulsen, U and Vichit-Vadakan, N and Taptagaporn, S}, title = {Health impact of climate change on occupational health and productivity in Thailand.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {21160553}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The rise in global temperature is well documented. Changes in temperature lead to increases in heat exposure, which may impact health ranging from mild heat rashes to deadly heat stroke. Heat exposure can also aggravate several chronic diseases including cardiovascular and respiratory disease.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study examined the relationship between climate condition and health status and productivity in two main categories of the occupational setting - where one setting involves heat generated from the industry and the other with heat in a natural setting.<br><br>DESIGN: This cross-sectional study included four industrial sites (pottery industry, power plant, knife industry, and construction site) and one agricultural site in the Pathumthani and Ayutthaya provinces. Exposure data were comprised of meteorological data and heat exposure including relative humidity (RH) measured by Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) monitor. Heat index was calculated to measure the effects of heat exposure on the study population, which consisted of 21 workers at five worksites; a questionnaire was also used to collect data on workers.<br><br>RESULTS: Among the five workplaces, the outdoor WBGT was found to be highest at 34.6&#xb0;C during 12:00 and 1:00 PM at the agricultural site. It was found that four out of five study sites had heat indices in the 'extreme caution,' where heat cramp and exhaustion may be possible and one site showed a value of 41&#xb0;C that falls into the category of 'danger,' where sunstroke and heat exhaustion are likely and prolonged exposure may lead to heatstroke. Productivity as perceived by the workers revealed that only the construction and pottery industry workers had a loss of productivity ranged from 10 to 60 %.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate conditions in Thailand potentially affect both the health and productivity in occupational settings.}, }
@article {pmid21159698, year = {2011}, author = {Hanna, EG and Kjellstrom, T and Bennett, C and Dear, K}, title = {Climate change and rising heat: population health implications for working people in Australia.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {23}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {14S-26}, doi = {10.1177/1010539510391457}, pmid = {21159698}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Efficiency ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; Forecasting ; Health Policy ; Heat Stress Disorders/etiology ; Humans ; Occupational Exposure/*adverse effects ; *Occupational Health ; Public Health ; Risk ; }, abstract = {The rapid rise in extreme heat events in Australia recently is already taking a health toll. Climate change scenarios predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events in the future, and population health may be significantly compromised for people who cannot reduce their heat exposure. Exposure to extreme heat presents a health hazard to all who are physically active, particularly outdoor workers and indoor workers with minimal access to cooling systems while working. At air temperatures close to (or beyond) the core body temperature of 37°C, body cooling via sweating is essential, and this mechanism is hampered by high air humidity. Heat exposure among elite athletes and the military has been investigated, whereas the impacts on workers remain largely unexplored, particularly in relation to future climate change. Workers span all age groups and diverse levels of fitness and health status, including people with higher than "normal" sensitivity to heat. In a hotter world, workers are likely to experience more heat stress and find it increasingly difficult to maintain productivity. Modeling of future climate change in Australia shows a substantial increase in the number of very hot days (>35°C) across the country. In this article, the authors characterize the health risks associated with heat exposure on working people and discuss future exposure risks as temperatures rise. Progress toward developing occupational health and safety guidelines for heat in Australia are summarized.}, }
@article {pmid21159681, year = {2011}, author = {Todd, BD and Scott, DE and Pechmann, JH and Gibbons, JW}, title = {Climate change correlates with rapid delays and advancements in reproductive timing in an amphibian community.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {278}, number = {1715}, pages = {2191-2197}, pmid = {21159681}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Amphibians/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Larva/growth &amp; development ; Male ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; *Sexual Behavior, Animal ; Temperature ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Climate change has had a significant impact globally on the timing of ecological events such as reproduction and migration in many species. Here, we examined the phenology of reproductive migrations in 10 amphibian species at a wetland in South Carolina, USA using a 30 year dataset. We show for the first time that two autumn-breeding amphibians are breeding increasingly later in recent years, coincident with an estimated 1.2°C increase in local overnight air temperatures during the September through February pre-breeding and breeding periods. Additionally, two winter-breeding species in the same community are breeding increasingly earlier. Four of the 10 species studied have shifted their reproductive timing an estimated 15.3 to 76.4 days in the past 30 years. This has resulted in rates of phenological change that range from 5.9 to 37.2 days per decade, providing examples of some of the greatest rates of changing phenology in ecological events reported to date. Owing to the opposing direction of the shifts in reproductive timing, our results suggest an alteration in the degree of temporal niche overlap experienced by amphibian larvae in this community. Reproductive timing can drive community dynamics in larval amphibians and our results identify an important pathway by which climate change may affect amphibian communities.}, }
@article {pmid21151914, year = {2010}, author = {Acevedo, P and Ruiz-Fons, F and Estrada, R and Márquez, AL and Miranda, MA and Gortázar, C and Lucientes, J}, title = {A broad assessment of factors determining Culicoides imicola abundance: modelling the present and forecasting its future in climate change scenarios.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {5}, number = {12}, pages = {e14236}, pmid = {21151914}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Bluetongue/virology ; Bluetongue virus/metabolism ; Ceratopogonidae/*metabolism ; Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Geographic Information Systems ; Geography ; Insect Vectors/*growth &amp; development/*virology ; Models, Biological ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Bluetongue (BT) is still present in Europe and the introduction of new serotypes from endemic areas in the African continent is a possible threat. Culicoides imicola remains one of the most relevant BT vectors in Spain and research on the environmental determinants driving its life cycle is key to preventing and controlling BT. Our aim was to improve our understanding of the biotic and abiotic determinants of C. imicola by modelling its present abundance, studying the spatial pattern of predicted abundance in relation to BT outbreaks, and investigating how the predicted current distribution and abundance patterns might change under future (2011-2040) scenarios of climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C. imicola abundance data from the bluetongue national surveillance programme were modelled with spatial, topoclimatic, host and soil factors. The influence of these factors was further assessed by variation partitioning procedures. The predicted abundance of C. imicola was also projected to a future period. Variation partitioning demonstrated that the pure effect of host and topoclimate factors explained a high percentage (>80%) of the variation. The pure effect of soil followed in importance in explaining the abundance of C. imicola. A close link was confirmed between C. imicola abundance and BT outbreaks. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to consider wild and domestic hosts in predictive modelling for an arthropod vector. The main findings regarding the near future show that there is no evidence to suggest that there will be an important increase in the distribution range of C. imicola; this contrasts with an expected increase in abundance in the areas where it is already present in mainland Spain. What may be expected regarding the future scenario for orbiviruses in mainland Spain, is that higher predicted C. imicola abundance may significantly change the rate of transmission of orbiviruses.}, }
@article {pmid21149704, year = {2010}, author = {MacDonald, GM}, title = {Climate Change and water in Southwestern North America special feature: water, climate change, and sustainability in the southwest.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {50}, pages = {21256-21262}, pmid = {21149704}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Droughts ; *Environment ; Fires ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Policy ; Population Growth ; Southwestern United States ; Temperature ; *Water ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The current Southwest drought is exceptional for its high temperatures and arguably the most severe in history. Coincidentally, there has been an increase in forest and woodland mortality due to fires and pathogenic outbreaks. Although the high temperatures and aridity are consistent with projected impacts of greenhouse warming, it is unclear whether the drought can be attributed to increased greenhouse gases or is a product of natural climatic variability. Climate models indicate that the 21st century will be increasingly arid and droughts more severe and prolonged. Forest and woodland mortality due to fires and pathogens will increase. Demography and food security dictate that water demand in the Southwest will remain appreciable. If projected population growth is twinned with suburb-centered development, domestic demands will intensify. Meeting domestic demands through transference from agriculture presents concerns for rural sustainability and food security. Environmental concerns will limit additional transference from rivers. It is unlikely that traditional supply-side solutions such as more dams will securely meet demands at current per-capita levels. Significant savings in domestic usage can be realized through decreased applications of potable water to landscaping, but this is a small fraction of total regional water use, which is dominated by agriculture. Technical innovations, policy measures, and market-based solutions that increase supply and decrease water demand are all needed. Meeting 21st-century sustainability challenges in the Southwest will also require planning, cooperation, and integration that surpass 20th-century efforts in terms of geographic scope, jurisdictional breadth, multisectoral engagement, and the length of planning timelines.}, }
@article {pmid21148695, year = {2011}, author = {Flury, S and Gessner, MO}, title = {Experimentally simulated global warming and nitrogen enrichment effects on microbial litter decomposers in a marsh.}, journal = {Applied and environmental microbiology}, volume = {77}, number = {3}, pages = {803-809}, pmid = {21148695}, issn = {1098-5336}, mesh = {Bacteria/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Biodegradation, Environmental ; Biomass ; Climate ; Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis ; Ecosystem ; Fresh Water/*microbiology ; Fungi/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; *Global Warming ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Oxygen Consumption ; Plant Leaves/*metabolism ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Atmospheric warming and increased nitrogen deposition can lead to changes of microbial communities with possible consequences for biogeochemical processes. We used an enclosure facility in a freshwater marsh to assess the effects on microbes associated with decomposing plant litter under conditions of simulated climate warming and pulsed nitrogen supply. Standard batches of litter were placed in coarse-mesh and fine-mesh bags and submerged in a series of heated, nitrogen-enriched, and control enclosures. They were retrieved later and analyzed for a range of microbial parameters. Fingerprinting profiles obtained by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) indicated that simulated global warming induced a shift in bacterial community structure. In addition, warming reduced fungal biomass, whereas bacterial biomass was unaffected. The mesh size of the litter bags and sampling date also had an influence on bacterial community structure, with the apparent number of dominant genotypes increasing from spring to summer. Microbial respiration was unaffected by any treatment, and nitrogen enrichment had no clear effect on any of the microbial parameters considered. Overall, these results suggest that microbes associated with decomposing plant litter in nutrient-rich freshwater marshes are resistant to extra nitrogen supplies but are likely to respond to temperature increases projected for this century.}, }
@article {pmid21148457, year = {2011}, author = {Feinberg, M and Willer, R}, title = {Apocalypse soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting just-world beliefs.}, journal = {Psychological science}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {34-38}, doi = {10.1177/0956797610391911}, pmid = {21148457}, issn = {1467-9280}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; *Attitude ; Cues ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Male ; *Public Opinion ; Students/psychology ; United States ; }, abstract = {Though scientific evidence for the existence of global warming continues to mount, in the United States and other countries belief in global warming has stagnated or even decreased in recent years. One possible explanation for this pattern is that information about the potentially dire consequences of global warming threatens deeply held beliefs that the world is just, orderly, and stable. Individuals overcome this threat by denying or discounting the existence of global warming, and this process ultimately results in decreased willingness to counteract climate change. Two experiments provide support for this explanation of the dynamics of belief in global warming, suggesting that less dire messaging could be more effective for promoting public understanding of climate-change research.}, }
@article {pmid21148361, year = {2010}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. El Niño lends more confidence to strong global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {330}, number = {6010}, pages = {1465}, doi = {10.1126/science.330.6010.1465}, pmid = {21148361}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid21147827, year = {2011}, author = {Virkkala, R and Rajasärkkä, A}, title = {Climate change affects populations of northern birds in boreal protected areas.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {395-398}, pmid = {21147827}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Finland ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {Human land-use effects on species populations are minimized in protected areas and population changes can thus be more directly linked with changes in climate. In this study, bird population changes in 96 protected areas in Finland were compared using quantitative bird census data, between two time slices, 1981-1999 and 2000-2009, with the mean time span being 14 years. Bird species were categorized by distribution pattern and migratory strategy. Our results showed that northern bird species had declined by 21 per cent and southern species increased by 29 per cent in boreal protected areas during the study period, alongside a clear rise (0.7-0.8 °C) in mean temperatures. Distribution pattern was the main factor, with migratory strategy interacting in explaining population changes in boreal birds. Migration strategy interacted with distribution pattern so that, among northern birds, densities of both migratory and resident species declined, whereas among southern birds they both increased. The observed decline of northern species and increase in southern species are in line with the predictions of range shifts of these species groups under a warming climate, and suggest that the population dynamics of birds are already changing in natural boreal habitats in association with changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid21146195, year = {2011}, author = {Melamed, Y and Kislev, M and Weiss, E and Simchoni, O}, title = {Extinction of water plants in the Hula Valley: Evidence for climate change.}, journal = {Journal of human evolution}, volume = {60}, number = {4}, pages = {320-327}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhevol.2010.07.025}, pmid = {21146195}, issn = {1095-8606}, mesh = {Aquatic Organisms/growth &amp; development ; Archaeology ; Biological Evolution ; Characeae/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Desiccation ; Environment ; *Extinction, Biological ; Ferns/*growth &amp; development ; *Fossils ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Israel ; Magnoliopsida/*growth &amp; development ; Paleontology ; Seed Dispersal ; }, abstract = {We describe two events of water plant extinction in the Hula Valley, northern Israel: the ancient, natural extinction of 3 out of 14 extinct species at Gesher Benot Ya'aqov, which occurred some 800-700 k.yr., and an anthropogenic, near contemporary extinction of seven species in the artificial drainage of the Hula Lake in the 1950s. We conclude that the considerable fraction of water plants that disappeared from the Hula Valley in the Early-Middle Pleistocene was the result of habitat desiccation and not global warming. Thus, there is evidence that the hominins who lived in the Hula Valley inhabited a comparatively dry place. The disappearance of water plant species was partially the result of reduced seed dispersal by birds (ornitochory) as a result of the shrinkage of water bodies and their number along the Rift Valley. We suggest that the disappearance of a group of rare, local water plants can be used as an indicator of climate drying and impacts on the local vegetation.}, }
@article {pmid21143259, year = {2011}, author = {Greenberg, M and Truelove, HB}, title = {Energy choices and risk beliefs: is it just global warming and fear of a nuclear power plant accident?.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {31}, number = {5}, pages = {819-831}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01535.x}, pmid = {21143259}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {*Electric Power Supplies ; *Fear ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Radioactive Hazard Release ; *Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {A survey of 3,200 U.S. residents focused on two issues associated with the use of nuclear and coal fuels to produce electrical energy. The first was the association between risk beliefs and preferences for coal and nuclear energy. As expected, concern about nuclear power plant accidents led to decreased support for nuclear power, and those who believed that coal causes global warming preferred less coal use. Yet other risk beliefs about the coal and nuclear energy fuel cycles were stronger or equal correlates of public preferences. The second issue is the existence of what we call acknowledged risk takers, respondents who favored increased reliance on nuclear energy, although also noting that there could be a serious nuclear plant accident, and those who favored greater coal use, despite acknowledging a link to global warming. The pro-nuclear group disproportionately was affluent educated white males, and the pro-coal group was relatively poor less educated African-American and Latino females. Yet both shared four similarities: older age, trust in management, belief that the energy facilities help the local economy, and individualistic personal values. These findings show that there is no single public with regard to energy preferences and risk beliefs. Rather, there are multiple populations with different viewpoints that surely would benefit by hearing a clear and comprehensive national energy life cycle policy from the national government.}, }
@article {pmid21143047, year = {2010}, author = {Egger, GJ and Dixon, JB}, title = {Obesity and global warming: are they similar "canaries" in the same "mineshaft"?.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {193}, number = {11-12}, pages = {635-637}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.2010.tb04089.x}, pmid = {21143047}, issn = {0025-729X}, mesh = {Chronic Disease/economics ; Developing Countries ; *Global Warming/economics ; Humans ; *Life Style ; *Obesity/economics ; }, abstract = {Obesity, linked to chronic disease, and global warming, linked to climate change, may be indicators of serious problems with our consumption-based economic system.}, }
@article {pmid21140000, year = {2010}, author = {Nilsson, M and Kjellstrom, T}, title = {Climate change impacts on working people: how to develop prevention policies.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {21140000}, issn = {1654-9880}, }
@article {pmid21139703, year = {2010}, author = {Mathee, A and Oba, J and Rose, A}, title = {Climate change impacts on working people (the HOTHAPS initiative): findings of the South African pilot study.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {21139703}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. With the prospect of a warmer world, increased attention is being devoted to the implications for worker well-being and work performance.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The 'high occupational temperature health and productivity suppression' (HOTHAPS) programme is a multi-centre health research and prevention programme aimed at characterising and quantifying the extent to which working people are affected by, or adapt to, heat exposure while working. The main aim of the current South African pilot study was to look at the perceptions of outdoor workers regarding their work environment in hot weather and how this affected their health and productivity levels.<br><br>DESIGN: A qualitative study utilising focus group discussions was employed in two sites, Johannesburg (which has a temperate climate) and Upington (located in the hottest part of South Africa).<br><br>RESULTS: In summary, the pilot study demonstrated that especially in Upington, where daily maximum temperatures may reach +40&#xb0;C, workers reported a wide range of heat-related effects, including sunburn, sleeplessness, irritability, and exhaustion leading to difficulty in maintaining work levels and output during very hot weather. Few, if any, measures were being undertaken by employers to protect health or improve worker comfort.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This pilot study has demonstrated that people working in sun-exposed conditions in hot parts of South Africa currently experience heat-related health effects, with implications for their well-being and ability to work and that further research is warranted. In this regard, the pilot study has proved valuable in informing the design, site, sample selection, and logistical planning for a proposed main study on the health and performance aspects of work in hot weather in South Africa.}, }
@article {pmid21139702, year = {2010}, author = {Dapi, LN and Rocklöv, J and Nguefack-Tsague, G and Tetanye, E and Kjellstrom, T}, title = {Heat impact on schoolchildren in Cameroon, Africa: potential health threat from climate change.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {21139702}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Health impacts related to climate change are potentially an increasing problem in Cameroon, especially during hot seasons when there are no means for protective and adaptive actions.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To describe environmental conditions in schools and to evaluate the impact of heat on schoolchildren's health during school days in the Cameroon cities of Yaound&#xe9; and Douala.<br><br>METHODS: Schoolchildren (N = 285) aged 12-16 years from public secondary schools completed a questionnaire about their background, general symptoms, and hot feelings in a cross-sectional study. In Yaound&#xe9;, 50 schoolchildren were individually interviewed during school days about hourly symptoms (fatigue, headache, and feeling very hot) and performance. Lascar dataloggers were used to measure indoor classroom temperatures and humidity.<br><br>RESULTS: There was a significant correlation between daily indoor temperature and the percentages of schoolchildren who felt very hot, had fatigue, and headaches in Yaound&#xe9;. A high proportion of schoolchildren felt very hot (48%), had fatigue (76%), and headaches (38%) in Yaound&#xe9;. Prevalences (%) were higher among girls than boys for headaches (58 vs 39), feeling 'very hot overall' (37 vs 21), and 'very hot in head' (21 vs 18). Up to 62% were absentminded and 45% had slow writing speed. High indoor temperatures of 32.5&#xb0;C in Yaound&#xe9; and 36.6&#xb0;C in Douala were observed in school.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Headache, fatigue, and feeling very hot associated with high indoor air temperature were observed among schoolchildren in the present study. Longitudinal data in schools are needed to confirm these results. School environmental conditions should be improved in order to enhance learning.}, }
@article {pmid21139697, year = {2010}, author = {Holmér, I}, title = {Climate change and occupational heat stress: methods for assessment.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {21139697}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Presumed effects of global warming on occupational heat stress aggravate conditions in many parts of the world, in particular in developing countries. In order to assess and evaluate conditions, heat stress must be described and measured correctly.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: Assessment of heat stress using internationally recognized methods.<br><br>DESIGN: Two such methods are wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT; ISO 7243) and predicted heat strain (PHS; ISO 7933). Both methods measure relevant climatic factors and provide recommendations for limit values in terms of time when heat stress becomes imminent. The WBGT as a heat stress index is empirical and widely recognized. It requires, however, special sensors for the climatic factors that can introduce significant measurement errors if prescriptions in ISO 7243 are not followed. The PHS (ISO 7933) is based on climatic factors that can easily be measured with traditional instruments. It evaluates the conditions for heat balance in a more rational way and it applies equally to all combinations of climates.<br><br>RESULTS: Analyzing similar climatic conditions with WBGT and PHS indicates that WBGT provides a more conservative assessment philosophy that allows much shorter working time than predicted with PHS.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: PHS prediction of physiological strain appears to fit better with published data from warm countries. Both methods should be used and validated more extensively worldwide in order to give reliable and accurate information about the actual heat stress.}, }
@article {pmid21135232, year = {2010}, author = {Moser, SC and Ekstrom, JA}, title = {A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {51}, pages = {22026-22031}, pmid = {21135232}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Decision Support Techniques ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {This article presents a systematic framework to identify barriers that may impede the process of adaptation to climate change. The framework targets the process of planned adaptation and focuses on potentially challenging but malleable barriers. Three key sets of components create the architecture for the framework. First, a staged depiction of an idealized, rational approach to adaptation decision-making makes up the process component. Second, a set of interconnected structural elements includes the actors, the larger context in which they function (e.g., governance), and the object on which they act (the system of concern that is exposed to climate change). At each of these stages, we ask (i) what could impede the adaptation process and (ii) how do the actors, context, and system of concern contribute to the barrier. To facilitate the identification of barriers, we provide a series of diagnostic questions. Third, the framework is completed by a simple matrix to help locate points of intervention to overcome a given barrier. It provides a systematic starting point for answering critical questions about how to support climate change adaptation at all levels of decision-making.}, }
@article {pmid21134999, year = {2010}, author = {Kmietowicz, Z}, title = {Deaths from climate change will triple in next 20 years if inaction continues, warns report.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {341}, number = {}, pages = {c7008}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.c7008}, pmid = {21134999}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Mortality/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid21132943, year = {2010}, author = {Fortier, F}, title = {Taking a climate chance: a procedural critique of Vietnam's climate change strategy.}, journal = {Asia Pacific viewpoint}, volume = {51}, number = {3}, pages = {229-247}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-8373.2010.01428.x}, pmid = {21132943}, issn = {1360-7456}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change/economics/history ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Ecology/education/history ; *Economics/history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Politics ; *Public Health/economics/education/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Vietnam/ethnology ; }, abstract = {This article asks through what processes and for which interests the emerging Vietnamese climate change strategy is being designed, and if, ultimately, it is likely or not to be effective in the face of the looming threat. Through a review of an emerging body of literature and field observations, the paper finds the strategy partial and problematic in several ways. Its technocratic process prevents a pluralist representation of interests, obfuscating and perpetuating sectorial ones, at the expense of a more transparent and democratic resource allocation. The strategy therefore reflects and reinforces existing power relations in both politics and production. It feeds into a business-as-usual complacency, protecting national and international interests vested in unchallenged continuity, even when considering post-carbon technological fixes, which largely serve to expand capital accumulation opportunities. The article concludes that the national climate change strategy provides an illusion of intervention and security, but largely fails to identify and mitigate the underlying causes of climate change, or to lay the ground for a robust mid- and long-term adaptation strategy that can cope with yet unknown levels of climatic and other structural changes.}, }
@article {pmid21132942, year = {2010}, author = {Wisner, B}, title = {Climate change and cultural diversity.}, journal = {International social science journal}, volume = {61}, number = {199}, pages = {131-140}, doi = {10.1111/j.1468-2451.2010.01752.x}, pmid = {21132942}, issn = {0020-8701}, mesh = {*Agriculture/economics/education/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Climate Change/economics/history ; *Cultural Diversity ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Internationality/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Life Change Events/history ; Rural Health/history ; *Rural Population/history ; Social Alienation/psychology ; *Social Change/history ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Cultures and climate are changing. These changes interact with local knowledge and practice. Research has focused on technical questions, such as how small farmers and livestock keepers understand seasonal forecasts, veterinary problems or market conditions. However, there is a more holistic way of engaging local knowledge. Rural people utilise external technical ideas and tools, even complex ones, that complement their own concepts and experience of change. However, there are obstacles to overcome in generating such hybrid local knowledge. Firstly, there is a long history of domination of rural people by urban elites, including the assumed superiority of urban or high culture versus rural, vernacular or low culture. A second obstacle comes from the frequent use of science as justification to force rural people to do what governments want. Experience of exclusion and displacement has left a residue of bitterness and suspicion among many rural people. A third obstacle involves misuse of one-size-fits-all methods. No single, homogeneous knowledge exists in a locality. Rather there are women's forms of knowledge and the knowledge of men and elders and the knowledge of young people and children, which are differentiated also by occupation and by ethnicity. In the face of such cultural diversity an incompetent use of standardised participatory methods yields poor results and may alienate residents.}, }
@article {pmid21126980, year = {2012}, author = {DeBono, R and Vincenti, K and Calleja, N}, title = {Risk communication: climate change as a human-health threat, a survey of public perceptions in Malta.}, journal = {European journal of public health}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {144-149}, doi = {10.1093/eurpub/ckq181}, pmid = {21126980}, issn = {1464-360X}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; Female ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; Male ; Malta ; Middle Aged ; *Public Opinion ; *Risk Assessment ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Scientific evidence shows that climate change is very likely the product of human behaviour and lifestyle. The effects of climate change on human health are diverse in nature and range from direct effects due to extreme weather events such as heat waves, floods and storms, to indirect effects such as those caused by water and food shortages.<br><br>METHODS: A telephone survey was conducted between January and February 2009, on a stratified representative random sample of the Maltese population over the age of 18 years (N = 310,819).<br><br>RESULTS: Five hundred and forty-three individuals successfully participated in the survey giving a response rate of 92.7%. The respondent sample was very similar to the target population by gender (P = 0.977), age (P = 0.767) and district (P = 0.812). The results of the study demonstrate a very strong relationship between the perception of climate change as a threat to health and well-being, support for climate change mitigation policy and a willingness to implement measures to address climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The findings of this study show that the perception that climate change may claim lives, cause disease, reduce the standard of living and worsen water shortages, may be the strongest driver behind support for climate change mitigation policy and a willingness to act. It is recommended that, in order to gain more public support, climate change campaigns and risk communication strategies should frame climate change as a threat to human health and general well-being.}, }
@article {pmid21126630, year = {2010}, author = {Morabia, A and Costanza, MC}, title = {It takes a train to knock down global warming and obesity.}, journal = {Preventive medicine}, volume = {51}, number = {6}, pages = {449-450}, doi = {10.1016/j.ypmed.2010.11.004}, pmid = {21126630}, issn = {1096-0260}, mesh = {Diet ; Energy-Generating Resources ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Motor Activity ; Obesity/etiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Sedentary Behavior ; Transportation/methods ; }, }
@article {pmid21125310, year = {2010}, author = {Brisbois, BW and Ali, SH}, title = {Climate change, vector-borne disease and interdisciplinary research: social science perspectives on an environment and health controversy.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {425-438}, pmid = {21125310}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Vectors ; Environmental Health/*methods/trends ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Interdisciplinary Studies ; Public Health Practice ; Social Environment ; Social Sciences/*methods ; }, abstract = {Over the last two decades, the science of climate change's theoretical impacts on vector-borne disease has generated controversy related to its methodological validity and relevance to disease control policy. Critical social science analysis, drawing on science and technology studies and the sociology of social movements, demonstrates consistency between this controversy and the theory that climate change is serving as a collective action frame for some health researchers. Within this frame, vector-borne disease data are interpreted as a symptom of climate change, with the need for further interdisiplinary research put forth as the logical and necessary next step. Reaction to this tendency on the part of a handful of vector-borne disease specialists exhibits characteristics of academic boundary work aimed at preserving the integrity of existing disciplinary boundaries. Possible reasons for this conflict include the leadership role for health professionals and disciplines in the envisioned interdiscipline, and disagreements over the appropriate scale of interventions to control vector-borne diseases. Analysis of the competing frames in this controversy also allows identification of excluded voices and themes, such as international political economic explanations for the health problems in question. A logical conclusion of this analysis, therefore, is the need for critical reflection on environment and health research and policy to achieve integration with considerations of global health equity.}, }
@article {pmid21123146, year = {2010}, author = {Schmidt, CW}, title = {A closer look at climate change skepticism.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {118}, number = {12}, pages = {a536-40}, pmid = {21123146}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; *Dissent and Disputes ; *Public Opinion ; }, }
@article {pmid21120079, year = {2010}, author = {Pandve, HT}, title = {Climate change and health: Research challenges for health in the developing countries.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {42-44}, pmid = {21120079}, issn = {1998-3670}, abstract = {Climate change has emerged as one of the most important environmental issues ever to confront humanity. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change, and health hazards are a major concern. Research pertaining to the effects of climate change on human health is the need of the hour. This paper discusses the broad challenges in health research in developing countries with specific reference to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21115521, year = {2011}, author = {Warren, R}, title = {The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {369}, number = {1934}, pages = {217-241}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0271}, pmid = {21115521}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Earth, Planet ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Models, Theoretical ; Public Policy ; Temperature ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4°C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing some potential interactions in a 4°C world, and also makes a comparison with a 2°C world. In a 4°C world, major shifts in agricultural land use and increased drought are projected, and an increased human population might increasingly be concentrated in areas remaining wet enough for economic prosperity. Ecosystem services that enable prosperity would be declining, with carbon cycle feedbacks and fire causing forest losses. There is an urgent need for integrated assessments considering the synergy of impacts and limits to adaptation in multiple sectors and regions in a 4°C world. By contrast, a 2°C world is projected to experience about one-half of the climate change impacts, with concomitantly smaller challenges for adaptation. Ecosystem services, including the carbon sink provided by the Earth's forests, would be expected to be largely preserved, with much less potential for interaction processes to increase challenges to adaptation. However, demands for land and water for biofuel cropping could reduce the availability of these resources for agricultural and natural systems. Hence, a whole system approach to mitigation and adaptation, considering interactions, potential human and species migration, allocation of land and water resources and ecosystem services, will be important in either a 2°C or a 4°C world.}, }
@article {pmid21115514, year = {2011}, author = {Sanderson, MG and Hemming, DL and Betts, RA}, title = {Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {369}, number = {1934}, pages = {85-98}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0283}, pmid = {21115514}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Earth, Planet ; Ecology ; Geography ; *Global Warming ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as 'high-end' (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and 'non-high-end' simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.}, }
@article {pmid21115513, year = {2011}, author = {Betts, RA and Collins, M and Hemming, DL and Jones, CD and Lowe, JA and Sanderson, MG}, title = {When could global warming reach 4°C?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {369}, number = {1934}, pages = {67-84}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0292}, pmid = {21115513}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Earth, Planet ; Ecology ; *Global Warming ; Models, Theoretical ; Research/trends ; Temperature ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with 'FI' standing for 'fossil intensive'. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC's 'likely range'.}, }
@article {pmid21115511, year = {2011}, author = {Anderson, K and Bows, A}, title = {Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {369}, number = {1934}, pages = {20-44}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0290}, pmid = {21115511}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Earth, Planet ; Ecology ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Models, Theoretical ; Public Policy ; Research/trends ; Temperature ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.}, }
@article {pmid21114339, year = {2010}, author = {Karras, G}, title = {Combustion emissions from refining lower quality oil: what is the global warming potential?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {24}, pages = {9584-9589}, doi = {10.1021/es1019965}, pmid = {21114339}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Extraction and Processing Industry ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Hydrocarbons/analysis ; Petroleum/*analysis ; }, abstract = {The greenhouse gas emission intensity of refining lower quality petroleum was estimated from fuel combustion for energy used by operating plants to process crude oils of varying quality. Refinery crude feed, processing, yield, and fuel data from four regions accounting for 97% of U.S. refining capacity from 1999 to 2008 were compared among regions and years for effects on processing and energy consumption predicted by the processing characteristics of heavier, higher sulfur oils. Crude feed density and sulfur content could predict 94% of processing intensity, 90% of energy intensity, and 85% of carbon dioxide emission intensity differences among regions and years and drove a 39% increase in emissions across regions and years. Fuel combustion energy for processing increased by approximately 61 MJ/m(3) crude feed for each 1 kg/m(3) sulfur and 44 MJ/m(3) for each 1 kg/m(3) density of crude refined. Differences in products, capacity utilized, and fuels burned were not confounding factors. Fuel combustion increments observed predict that a switch to heavy oil and tar sands could double or triple refinery emissions and add 1.6-3.7 gigatons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere annually from fuel combustion to process the oil.}, }
@article {pmid21085776, year = {2010}, author = {Colombo, AF and Joly, CA}, title = {Brazilian Atlantic Forest lato sensu: the most ancient Brazilian forest, and a biodiversity hotspot, is highly threatened by climate change.}, journal = {Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia}, volume = {70}, number = {3 Suppl}, pages = {697-708}, doi = {10.1590/s1519-69842010000400002}, pmid = {21085776}, issn = {1678-4375}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Brazil ; Ecosystem ; *Forecasting ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; *Trees/classification ; }, abstract = {After 500 years of exploitation and destruction, the Brazilian Atlantic Forest has been reduced to less the 8% of its original cover, and climate change may pose a new threat to the remnants of this biodiversity hotspot. In this study we used modelling techniques to determine present and future geographical distribution of 38 species of trees that are typical of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (Mata Atlântica), considering two global warming scenarios. The optimistic scenario, based in a 0.5% increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, predicts an increase of up to 2 °C in the Earth's average temperature; in the pessimistic scenario, based on a 1% increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, temperature increase may reach 4 °C. Using these parameters, the occurrence points of the studied species registered in literature, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Predictions/GARP and Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions/MaxEnt we developed models of present and future possible occurrence of each species, considering Earth's mean temperature by 2050 with the optimistic and the pessimistic scenarios of CO2 emission. The results obtained show an alarming reduction in the area of possible occurrence of the species studied, as well as a shift towards southern areas of Brazil. Using GARP, on average, in the optimistic scenario this reduction is of 25% while in the pessimistic scenario it reaches 50%, and the species that will suffer the worst reduction in their possible area of occurrence are: Euterpe edulis, Mollinedia schottiana, Virola bicuhyba, Inga sessilis and Vochysia magnifica. Using MaxEnt, on average, in the optimistic scenario the reduction will be of 20% while in the pessimistic scenario it reaches 30%, and the species that will suffer the worst reduction are: Hyeronima alchorneoides, Schefflera angustissima, Andira fraxinifolia and the species of Myrtaceae studied.}, }
@article {pmid21114000, year = {2010}, author = {Stone, B and Hess, JJ and Frumkin, H}, title = {Urban form and extreme heat events: are sprawling cities more vulnerable to climate change than compact cities?.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {118}, number = {10}, pages = {1425-1428}, pmid = {21114000}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {300617201-03//PHS HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Extreme heat events (EHEs) are increasing in frequency in large U.S. cities and are responsible for a greater annual number of climate-related fatalities, on average, than any other form of extreme weather. In addition, low-density, sprawling patterns of urban development have been associated with enhanced surface temperatures in urbanized areas.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: In this study. we examined the association between urban form at the level of the metropolitan region and the frequency of EHEs over a five-decade period.<br><br>METHODS: We employed a widely published sprawl index to measure the association between urban form in 2000 and the mean annual rate of change in EHEs between 1956 and 2005.<br><br>RESULTS: We found that the rate of increase in the annual number of EHEs between 1956 and 2005 in the most sprawling metropolitan regions was more than double the rate of increase observed in the most compact metropolitan regions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The design and management of land use in metropolitan regions may offer an important tool for adapting to the heat-related health effects associated with ongoing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21112614, year = {2011}, author = {Sprenger, C and Lorenzen, G and Hülshoff, I and Grützmacher, G and Ronghang, M and Pekdeger, A}, title = {Vulnerability of bank filtration systems to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {409}, number = {4}, pages = {655-663}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.11.002}, pmid = {21112614}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; Filtration/*methods ; Floods ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants ; Water Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Bank filtration (BF) is a well established and proven natural water treatment technology, where surface water is infiltrated to an aquifer through river or lake banks. Improvement of water quality is achieved by a series of chemical, biological and physical processes during subsurface passage. This paper aims at identifying climate sensitive factors affecting bank filtration performance and assesses their relevance based on hypothetical 'drought' and 'flood' climate scenarios. The climate sensitive factors influencing water quantity and quality also have influence on substance removal parameters such as redox conditions and travel time. Droughts are found to promote anaerobic conditions during bank filtration passage, while flood events can drastically shorten travel time and cause breakthrough of pathogens, metals, suspended solids, DOC and organic micropollutants. The study revealed that only BF systems comprising an oxic to anoxic redox sequence ensure maximum removal efficiency. The storage capacity of the banks and availability of two source waters renders BF for drinking water supply less vulnerable than surface water or groundwater abstraction alone. Overall, BF is vulnerable to climate change although anthropogenic impacts are at least as important.}, }
@article {pmid21111893, year = {2010}, author = {Ganten, D and Haines, A and Souhami, R}, title = {Health co-benefits of policies to tackle climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {376}, number = {9755}, pages = {1802-1804}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62139-3}, pmid = {21111893}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid21108905, year = {2010}, author = {Weaver, HJ and Blashki, GA and Capon, AG and McMichael, AJ}, title = {Climate change and Australia's healthcare system - risks, research and responses.}, journal = {Australian health review : a publication of the Australian Hospital Association}, volume = {34}, number = {4}, pages = {441-444}, doi = {10.1071/AH09829}, pmid = {21108905}, issn = {0156-5788}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Delivery of Health Care ; Disaster Planning ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Health Planning ; *Health Policy ; *Health Services Research ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change will affect human health, mostly adversely, resulting in a greater burden on the health care system, in addition to any other coexistent increases in demand (e.g. from Australia's increasingly ageing population). Understanding the extent to which health is likely to be affected by climate change will enable policy makers and practitioners to prepare for changing demands on the health care system. This will require prioritisation of key research questions and building research capacity in the field. There is an urgent need to better understand the implications of climate change for the distribution and prevalence of diseases, disaster preparedness and multidisciplinary service planning. Research is needed to understand the relationship of climate change to health promotion, policy evaluation and strategic financing of health services. Training of health care professionals about climate change and its effects will also be important in meeting long-term workforce demands.}, }
@article {pmid21105980, year = {2011}, author = {Mumby, PJ and Elliott, IA and Eakin, CM and Skirving, W and Paris, CB and Edwards, HJ and Enríquez, S and Iglesias-Prieto, R and Cherubin, LM and Stevens, JR}, title = {Reserve design for uncertain responses of coral reefs to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {132-140}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01562.x}, pmid = {21105980}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Algorithms ; Animals ; Anthozoa/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Aquatic Organisms ; Bahamas ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Coral Reefs ; Hot Temperature ; Larva/growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {Rising sea temperatures cause mass coral bleaching and threaten reefs worldwide. We show how maps of variations in thermal stress can be used to help manage reefs for climate change. We map proxies of chronic and acute thermal stress and develop evidence-based hypotheses for the future response of corals to each stress regime. We then incorporate spatially realistic predictions of larval connectivity among reefs of the Bahamas and apply novel reserve design algorithms to create reserve networks for a changing climate. We show that scales of larval dispersal are large enough to connect reefs from desirable thermal stress regimes into a reserve network. Critically, we find that reserve designs differ according to the anticipated scope for phenotypic and genetic adaptation in corals, which remains uncertain. Attempts to provide a complete reserve design that hedged against different evolutionary outcomes achieved limited success, which emphasises the importance of considering the scope for adaptation explicitly. Nonetheless, 15% of reserve locations were selected under all evolutionary scenarios, making them a high priority for early designation. Our approach allows new insights into coral holobiont adaptation to be integrated directly into an adaptive approach to management.}, }
@article {pmid21105202, year = {2010}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {Fresh advice on climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {20}, number = {21}, pages = {R907-8}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2010.10.041}, pmid = {21105202}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Forecasting ; *Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid21095044, year = {2010}, author = {Tirado Blázquez, MC}, title = {[Climate change and health. SESPAS report 2010].}, journal = {Gaceta sanitaria}, volume = {24 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {78-84}, doi = {10.1016/j.gaceta.2010.10.004}, pmid = {21095044}, issn = {1578-1283}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Spain ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To present the available evidence on the impacts of climate change on health, to analyze the situation in Spain in relation to the European context, to discuss barriers to and catalysts for climate change, and to recommend policy options to reduce the effects of climate change on health.<br><br>METHODS: We reviewed the literature on the impact of climate change on health. The proposals for adaptation to climate change identified in the framework of the European project coordinated by the WHO/Europe on "Climate, Environment and Health action plans and information systems" were analyzed.<br><br>RESULTS: The effects of climate change on health include: 1) an increase in the impacts of extreme weather events; 2) an increase of the frequency of respiratory diseases due to changes in air quality and pollen distribution; 3) an increase in the incidence of food-borne, zoonotic and waterborne diseases; and 4) a change in the distribution of infectious diseases and/or their vectors. In Spain, the morbidity and mortality due to heat waves are expected to increase. The main impact related to atmospheric contamination is a predicted increase in fine particles and ozone. There is also a risk of an increase in the geographical distribution of vector borne diseases that are already established in Spain or the establishment of new subtropical vectors. Spain is one of the first European countries to have developed a climate change adaptation plan. This plan provides a framework for coordination among public institutions on activities to evaluate the impacts of climate change, as well as vulnerability and adaptation to this phenomenon, and makes reference to the health sector.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Policy options to reduce the impacts of climate change on health include: 1) integrating health in all policies, strategies and interventions to mitigate and adapt to climate change; 2) strengthening health systems and public health systems to improve their ability to prevent, prepare and respond to the impacts of climate change; 3) raising awareness among all sectors to promote the co-benefits to health of adaptation and mitigation strategies; and 4) promoting research, technological development, data sharing and information exchange across sectors.}, }
@article {pmid21094326, year = {2011}, author = {Andersson, AK and Chapman, L}, title = {The impact of climate change on winter road maintenance and traffic accidents in West Midlands, UK.}, journal = {Accident; analysis and prevention}, volume = {43}, number = {1}, pages = {284-289}, doi = {10.1016/j.aap.2010.08.025}, pmid = {21094326}, issn = {1879-2057}, mesh = {Accidents, Traffic/*prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *Climate Change ; Cold Climate/*adverse effects ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; England ; *Environment Design ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Risk ; *Safety Management ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Winter weather can be a significant cause of road traffic accidents. This paper uses UKCIP climate change scenarios and a temporal analogue to investigate the relationship between temperature and severe road accidents in the West Midlands, UK. This approach also allows quantification of the changes in the severity of the winter season over the next century in the region. It is demonstrated that the predicted reduction in the number of frost days should in turn reduce the number of road accidents caused due to slipperiness by approximately 50%. However, the paper concludes by warning against complacency in winter maintenance regimes. A warmer climate may result in budget cuts for highway maintenance which in turn may well reverse declining accident trends.}, }
@article {pmid21093038, year = {2010}, author = {Roberts, I and Stott, R}, title = {Doctors and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {376}, number = {9755}, pages = {1801-1802}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62106-X}, pmid = {21093038}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Automobile Driving ; Chronic Disease/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Mexico/epidemiology ; Obesity/*epidemiology ; *Physician's Role ; Prevalence ; }, }
@article {pmid21091198, year = {2011}, author = {Foufopoulos, J and Kilpatrick, AM and Ives, AR}, title = {Climate change and elevated extinction rates of reptiles from Mediterranean Islands.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {177}, number = {1}, pages = {119-129}, pmid = {21091198}, issn = {1537-5323}, support = {R01 AI090159/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI090159-01/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; 1R01AI090159-01/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; Greece ; Phylogeny ; Reptiles/*classification/physiology ; }, abstract = {Recent climate change has caused the distributions of many species to shift poleward, yet few empirical studies have addressed which species will be vulnerable to longer-term climate changes. To investigate past consequences of climate change, we calculated the population extinction rates of 35 reptile species from 87 Greek land-bridge islands in the Mediterranean that occurred over the past 16,000 years. Population extinction rates were higher for those species that today have more northern distributions. We further found that northern species requiring cool, mesic habitats had less available suitable habitat among islands, implicating loss of suitable habitat in their elevated extinction rates. These extinctions occurred in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, with islands shrinking and separating as sea levels rose. Thus, the circumstances faced by reptiles on the islands are similar to challenges for numerous species today that must cope with a changing climate while living in an increasingly human-fragmented landscape. Our island-biogeographical approach to investigating historical population extinctions gives insight into the long-term patterns of species responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21091194, year = {2011}, author = {Friel, S and Bowen, K and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Frumkin, H and McMichael, AJ and Rasanathan, K}, title = {Climate change, noncommunicable diseases, and development: the relationships and common policy opportunities.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {32}, number = {}, pages = {133-147}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-071910-140612}, pmid = {21091194}, issn = {1545-2093}, mesh = {Chronic Disease/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Global Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The rapid growth in noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including injury and poor mental health, in low- and middle-income countries and the widening social gradients in NCDs within most countries worldwide pose major challenges to health and social systems and to development more generally. As Earth's surface temperature rises, a consequence of human-induced climate change, incidences of severe heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods will increase and become more severe. These changes will bring heightened risks to human survival and will likely exacerbate the incidence of some NCDs, including cardiovascular disease, some cancers, respiratory health, mental disorders, injuries, and malnutrition. These two great and urgent contemporary human challenges-to improve global health, especially the control of NCDs, and to protect people from the effects of climate change-would benefit from alignment of their policy agendas, offering synergistic opportunities to improve population and planetary health. Well-designed climate change policy can reduce the incidence of major NCDs in local populations.}, }
@article {pmid21090283, year = {2010}, author = {Jie, DM and Ge, Y and Guo, JX and Liu, HM}, title = {[Response of phytolith in Leymus chinensis to the simulation of global warming and nitrogen deposition on Songnen grassland, China].}, journal = {Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {1708-1715}, pmid = {21090283}, issn = {0250-3301}, mesh = {China ; Computer Simulation ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fertilizers ; *Global Warming ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Silicon Dioxide/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Using infrared radiator and applying nitrogen on Leymus chinensis community on Songnen grassland to simulate global warming and nitrogen deposition, phytolith was extracted from L. chinensis, the morphology and content of phytolith were analyzed. Phytolith in L. chinensis were classified into 4 main classes and 12 subclasses, as well as some small phytolith fragments. Of all the phytolith types, the hat-shaped take as much as 70%. The hat-shaped with spire and hat-shaped with flat peak may have different growth mechanisms from the echinate hat-shaped, and the point-shaped phytolith is more sensitive to N deposition. Compared with control check (CK), the warming treatment seemed to promote the growth of phytolith (increased the length and width 0.1-2.6 microm), while the N deposition treatment had an effect of inhibition on the growth of phytolith (decreased the length and width 0.1-1.4 microm), and when warming and N deposition mixed, in this treatment the effect of inhibition caused by N deposition declined. Hollow elongate (46% of elongate) was observed only in N deposition treatment, and the content of other types (elongate, point-shaped, hat-shaped excluded) increased to 10%, it was supposed, as L. chinensis is the dominant species in Songnen grassland, the effect of N deposition might be more significant than warming on such grassland, and warming could mitigate the affection of N deposition. Phytolith was sensitive to the change of environmental factors, this study provided an experimental evidence for phytolith as a reliable proxy indicator for paleo-environment.}, }
@article {pmid21084369, year = {2010}, author = {Roberts, I and Stott, R and , }, title = {Doctors and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {341}, number = {}, pages = {c6357}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.c6357}, pmid = {21084369}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid21078102, year = {2010}, author = {Pardiñas, AF and Campo, D and Pola, IG and Miralles, L and Juanes, F and Garcia-Vazquez, E}, title = {Climate change and oceanic barriers: genetic differentiation in Pomatomus saltatrix (Pisces: Pomatomidae) in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {77}, number = {8}, pages = {1993-1998}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02774.x}, pmid = {21078102}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate Change ; Cytochromes b/genetics ; Gene Flow/genetics ; *Genetic Variation ; Mediterranean Sea ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Perciformes/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Nucleotide variation of partial cytochrome b sequences was analysed in the bluefish Pomatomus saltatrix to investigate the population-structuring roles of climate change and oceanic barriers. Western and eastern North Atlantic Ocean populations appeared to be totally isolated, with the latter connected to the Mediterranean Sea within which further structuring occurred.}, }
@article {pmid21078099, year = {2010}, author = {Feary, DA and Burt, JA and Bauman, AG and Usseglio, P and Sale, PF and Cavalcante, GH}, title = {Fish communities on the world's warmest reefs: what can they tell us about the effects of climate change in the future?.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {77}, number = {8}, pages = {1931-1947}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02777.x}, pmid = {21078099}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Coral Reefs ; Fishes/*physiology ; Indian Ocean ; Population Density ; }, abstract = {To examine the role of climatic extremes in structuring reef fish communities in the Arabian region, reef fish communities were visually surveyed at four sites within the southern Persian Gulf (also known as the Arabian Gulf and The Gulf), where sea-surface temperatures are extreme (range: 12-35° C annually), and these were compared with communities at four latitudinally similar sites in the biogeographically connected Gulf of Oman, where conditions are more moderate (range: 22-31° C annually). Although sites were relatively similar in the cover and composition of coral communities, substantial differences in the structure and composition of associated fish assemblages were apparent. Fish assemblages in the southern Persian Gulf held significantly lower estimates of abundance, richness and biomass, with significantly higher abundances of smaller sized individuals than Gulf of Oman assemblages. Functionally, southern Persian Gulf sites held significantly lower abundances of nearly all the common fish trophic guilds found on Gulf of Oman sites, although higher abundances of herbivorous grazers were apparent. These results suggest the potential for substantial changes in the structure of reef-associated fish communities, independent of changes in habitat within an environment of increasing fluctuations in oceanic climate.}, }
@article {pmid21078098, year = {2010}, author = {Aprahamian, MW and Aprahamian, CD and Knights, AM}, title = {Climate change and the green energy paradox: the consequences for twaite shad Alosa fallax from the River Severn, U.K.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {77}, number = {8}, pages = {1912-1930}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02775.x}, pmid = {21078098}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animal Migration/physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fertility/physiology ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; Mortality ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/physiology ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {A stock-recruitment model with a temperature component was used to estimate the effect of an increase in temperature predicted by climate change projections on population persistence and distribution of twaite shad Alosa fallax. An increase of 1 and 2° C above the current mean summer (June to August) water temperature of 17·8° C was estimated to result in a three and six-fold increase in the population, respectively. Climate change is also predicted to result in an earlier commencement to their spawning migration into fresh water. The model was expanded to investigate the effect of any additional mortality that might arise from a tidal power barrage across the Severn Estuary. Turbine mortality was separated into two components: (1) juvenile (pre-maturation) on their out migration during their first year and on their first return to the river to spawn and (2) post-maturation mortality on adults on the repeat spawning component of the population. Under current conditions, decreasing pre-maturation and post-maturation survival by 8% is estimated to result in the stock becoming extinct. It is estimated that an increase in mean summer water temperature of 1° C would mean that survival pre and post-maturation would need to be reduced by c. 10% before the stock becomes extinct. Therefore, climate change is likely to be beneficial to populations of A. fallax within U.K. rivers, increasing survival and thus, population persistence.}, }
@article {pmid21078097, year = {2010}, author = {Brander, KM}, title = {Cod Gadus morhua and climate change: processes, productivity and prediction.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {77}, number = {8}, pages = {1899-1911}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02782.x}, pmid = {21078097}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Gadus morhua/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Environmental factors act on individual fishes directly and indirectly. The direct effects on rates and behaviour can be studied experimentally and in the field, particularly with the advent of ever smarter tags for tracking fishes and their environment. Indirect effects due to changes in food, predators, parasites and diseases are much more difficult to estimate and predict. Climate can affect all life-history stages through direct and indirect processes and although the consequences in terms of growth, survival and reproductive output can be monitored, it is often difficult to determine the causes. Investigation of cod Gadus morhua populations across the whole North Atlantic Ocean has shown large-scale patterns of change in productivity due to lower individual growth and condition, caused by large-scale climate forcing. If a population is being heavily exploited then a drop in productivity can push it into decline unless the level of fishing is reduced: the idea of a stable carrying capacity is a dangerous myth. Overexploitation can be avoided by keeping fishing mortality low and by monitoring and responding rapidly to changes in productivity. There are signs that this lesson has been learned and that G. morhua will continue to be a mainstay of the human diet.}, }
@article {pmid21078095, year = {2010}, author = {Kopprio, GA and Freije, RH and Strüssmann, CA and Kattner, G and Hoffmeyer, MS and Popovich, CA and Lara, RJ}, title = {Vulnerability of pejerrey Odontesthes bonariensis populations to climate change in pampean lakes of Argentina.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {77}, number = {8}, pages = {1856-1866}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02750.x}, pmid = {21078095}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; Argentina ; *Climate Change ; *Fresh Water/chemistry ; Smegmamorpha/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The vulnerability of the pejerrey Odontesthes bonariensis population in Lake Chasicó was assessed under different climate change conditions. During the sampling period, the water temperature was adequate for fish reproduction and to sustain an adequate sex ratio. Climate-driven higher temperatures, however, may severely distort population structure and cause drastic reduction or local extinction of stocks. Lake Chasicó can be classified as eutrophic with clear waters and cyanobacteria that regularly cause fish mortality were identified as Nodularia spumigena and Oscillatoria sp. Global warming may strengthen the effects of eutrophication (e.g. toxic blooms or anoxia). Since many Cyanophyta species tolerate higher temperatures better than other algae, toxic blooms could increase. Furthermore, cyanobacteria have low nutritional value and could decouple the low-diversity food web. Lake Chasicó has currently the salinity optimum (c. 20) for the development of the early life-history stages of O. bonariensis. Climate change, however, is likely to amplify the intensity of droughts or inundations. Floods can endanger O. bonariensis development due to its sub-optimal growth at low salinity and droughts could increase lake salinity and also temperature and nutrient concentration. In order to reduce some of the effects of climate change on the O. bonariensis population in Lake Chasicó, integrated basin management based on an eco-hydrological approach is proposed.}, }
@article {pmid21078092, year = {2010}, author = {Strüssmann, CA and Conover, DO and Somoza, GM and Miranda, LA}, title = {Implications of climate change for the reproductive capacity and survival of New World silversides (family Atherinopsidae).}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {77}, number = {8}, pages = {1818-1834}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02780.x}, pmid = {21078092}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Americas ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fertility/physiology ; Gametogenesis/physiology ; Oviposition/physiology ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Sex Determination Processes/physiology ; Smegmamorpha/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The New World silversides (family Atherinopsidae) are found in marine, estuarine and inland waters of North, Central and South America, where they are ecologically important as forage fishes and sometimes economically important for commercial and recreational fisheries. This report reviews the knowledge of the reproductive attributes of temperate and subtropical atherinopsids in relation to temperature and discusses the potential effects of climate change on their reproduction and adaptive responses. Their reproductive cycles are primarily entrained by photoperiod with high temperature acting as a limiting factor. They are generally multiple spawners which release successive batches of eggs in spring, but some species can spawn also in autumn and even summer when temperatures do not increase excessively. The decoupling of temperature patterns and photoperiod with further global warming and associated asymmetric thermal fluctuations could lead to spawning at times or temperatures that are unsuitable for larval development and growth. Many members of this family show temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), where the phenotypic sex of an individual is determined partly or wholly by the temperature experienced during gonadal sex differentiation, and high-temperature induced germ cell degeneration and decreased fertility. The predicted short-term reproductive responses of atherinopsids to climate change therefore include acceleration, shortening or overall disruption of spawning activity, and also more subtle, but nonetheless equally population-threatening, dysfunctions such as highly skewed sex ratios and partial or total loss of fertility. In the case of species with TSD, asymmetric thermal fluctuations could also cause larvae to encounter temperatures lower than normal during early development and be feminized. Such dysfunctions have been documented already in natural populations but are confined so far to landlocked, inland water habitats, perhaps because they impose more severe thermal fluctuations and limitations to migration and dispersal. The severity and recurrence of these dysfunctions with further climate change will depend both on the magnitude, speed and pattern of change and on how much (or how fast) physiological and behavioural traits can evolve to match the new conditions imposed by the climate, which is largely unknown. In this regard, compelling evidence is shown that numerous traits, including the sex determination system, are capable of rapid evolution and could mitigate the negative effects of temperature increases on population viability in atherinopsids.}, }
@article {pmid21078091, year = {2010}, author = {Elliott, JM and Elliott, JA}, title = {Temperature requirements of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, brown trout Salmo trutta and Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus: predicting the effects of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {77}, number = {8}, pages = {1793-1817}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02762.x}, pmid = {21078091}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; Salmo salar/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; Trout/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, brown trout Salmo trutta (including the anadromous form, sea trout) and Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus (including anadromous fish) provide important commercial and sports fisheries in Western Europe. As water temperature increases as a result of climate change, quantitative information on the thermal requirements of these three species is essential so that potential problems can be anticipated by those responsible for the conservation and sustainable management of the fisheries and the maintenance of biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems. Part I compares the temperature limits for survival, feeding and growth. Salmo salar has the highest temperature tolerance, followed by S. trutta and finally S. alpinus. For all three species, the temperature tolerance for alevins is slightly lower than that for parr and smolts, and the eggs have the lowest tolerance; this being the most vulnerable life stage to any temperature increase, especially for eggs of S. alpinus in shallow water. There was little evidence to support local thermal adaptation, except in very cold rivers (mean annual temperature <6·5° C). Part II illustrates the importance of developing predictive models, using data from a long-term study (1967-2000) of a juvenile anadromous S. trutta population. Individual-based models predicted the emergence period for the fry. Mean values over 34 years revealed a large variation in the timing of emergence with c. 2 months between extreme values. The emergence time correlated significantly with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, indicating that interannual variations in emergence were linked to more general changes in climate. Mean stream temperatures increased significantly in winter and spring at a rate of 0·37° C per decade, but not in summer and autumn, and led to an increase in the mean mass of pre-smolts. A growth model for S. trutta was validated by growth data from the long-term study and predicted growth under possible future conditions. Small increases (<2·5° C) in winter and spring would be beneficial for growth with 1 year-old smolts being more common. Water temperatures would have to increase by c. 4° C in winter and spring, and 3° C in summer and autumn before they had a marked negative effect on trout growth.}, }
@article {pmid21078090, year = {2010}, author = {Nunn, AD and Frear, PA and Lee, M and Cowx, IG}, title = {Is there evidence for a shift in fish growth and recruitment success linked to climate change?.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {77}, number = {8}, pages = {1780-1792}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02751.x}, pmid = {21078090}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate Change ; Cyprinidae/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; England ; Population Dynamics ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {This study investigated whether a putative shift in climate regime in the North Atlantic in the 1990s coincided with changes in the growth and recruitment of roach Rutilus rutilus in the north-east of England. The relationships between R. rutilus growth and recruitment and the environment were significantly different before and after the putative shift in climate regime. Water temperature, river discharge, growth, recruitment success and the Gulf Stream Index co-varied until the late 1990s, indicating a gradual progression between periods of warm-and-dry and cold-and-wet summers. Since the late 1990s, there has been an increased prevalence of warm-and-wet summers, and recruitment success has oscillated between extremes on an almost annual basis. The north wall (northern boundary) of the Gulf Stream has been undergoing a displacement south since the late 1990s, and the speed and amplitude of the change appears to support the hypothesis that there was a regime shift in the climate of the North Atlantic Ocean. It is possible that a continued displacement south of the north wall of the Gulf Stream will lead to further increases in river discharge, reductions in water temperature and reduced fish growth and recruitment success in the long term.}, }
@article {pmid21078088, year = {2010}, author = {Pörtner, HO and Peck, MA}, title = {Climate change effects on fishes and fisheries: towards a cause-and-effect understanding.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {77}, number = {8}, pages = {1745-1779}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02783.x}, pmid = {21078088}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Fishes/*physiology ; Models, Biological ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Ongoing climate change is predicted to affect individual organisms during all life stages, thereby affecting populations of a species, communities and the functioning of ecosystems. These effects of climate change can be direct, through changing water temperatures and associated phenologies, the lengths and frequency of hypoxia events, through ongoing ocean acidification trends or through shifts in hydrodynamics and in sea level. In some cases, climate interactions with a species will also, or mostly, be indirect and mediated through direct effects on key prey species which change the composition and dynamic coupling of food webs. Thus, the implications of climate change for marine fish populations can be seen to result from phenomena at four interlinked levels of biological organization: (1) organismal-level physiological changes will occur in response to changing environmental variables such as temperature, dissolved oxygen and ocean carbon dioxide levels. An integrated view of relevant effects, adaptation processes and tolerance limits is provided by the concept of oxygen and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLT). (2) Individual-level behavioural changes may occur such as the avoidance of unfavourable conditions and, if possible, movement into suitable areas. (3) Population-level changes may be observed via changes in the balance between rates of mortality, growth and reproduction. This includes changes in the retention or dispersion of early life stages by ocean currents, which lead to the establishment of new populations in new areas or abandonment of traditional habitats. (4) Ecosystem-level changes in productivity and food web interactions will result from differing physiological responses by organisms at different levels of the food web. The shifts in biogeography and warming-induced biodiversity will affect species productivity and may, thus, explain changes in fisheries economies. This paper tries to establish links between various levels of biological organization by means of addressing the effective physiological principles at the cellular, tissue and whole organism levels.}, }
@article {pmid21077965, year = {2010}, author = {Mitloehner, FM}, title = {Is the rising demand for animal protein fuelling climate change?.}, journal = {Journal of animal breeding and genetics = Zeitschrift fur Tierzuchtung und Zuchtungsbiologie}, volume = {127}, number = {6}, pages = {421-422}, doi = {10.1111/j.1439-0388.2010.00909.x}, pmid = {21077965}, issn = {1439-0388}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; *Animals, Domestic ; Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; *Dietary Proteins ; Humans ; Livestock ; }, }
@article {pmid21076031, year = {2010}, author = {Yamaguchi, YT and Yokoyama, Y and Miyahara, H and Sho, K and Nakatsuka, T}, title = {Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {48}, pages = {20697-20702}, pmid = {21076031}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Cedrus ; Cellulose ; *Climate Change ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; Humidity ; Japan ; *Magnetics ; Meteorological Concepts ; Oxygen Isotopes ; *Solar Activity ; }, abstract = {The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645-1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun-climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ(18)O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun-climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; Δ(14)C) and climate (δ(18)O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring δ(18)O record in Japan shows distinct negative δ(18)O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ(18)O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core (10)Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum.}, }
@article {pmid21073508, year = {2011}, author = {Yumul, GP and Cruz, NA and Servando, NT and Dimalanta, CB}, title = {Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004-08: a sign of what climate change will mean?.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, pages = {362-382}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-7717.2010.01216.x}, pmid = {21073508}, issn = {1467-7717}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cyclonic Storms/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disaster Planning ; Disasters/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Humans ; Maps as Topic ; Philippines ; Risk Management ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.}, }
@article {pmid21071667, year = {2010}, author = {Jaramillo, C and Ochoa, D and Contreras, L and Pagani, M and Carvajal-Ortiz, H and Pratt, LM and Krishnan, S and Cardona, A and Romero, M and Quiroz, L and Rodriguez, G and Rueda, MJ and de la Parra, F and Morón, S and Green, W and Bayona, G and Montes, C and Quintero, O and Ramirez, R and Mora, G and Schouten, S and Bermudez, H and Navarrete, R and Parra, F and Alvarán, M and Osorno, J and Crowley, JL and Valencia, V and Vervoort, J}, title = {Effects of rapid global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary on neotropical vegetation.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {330}, number = {6006}, pages = {957-961}, doi = {10.1126/science.1193833}, pmid = {21071667}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Biodiversity ; Carbon Dioxide ; Colombia ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; *Global Warming ; Magnoliopsida ; *Plants ; Pollen ; Spores ; Temperature ; Time ; *Trees ; *Tropical Climate ; Venezuela ; }, abstract = {Temperatures in tropical regions are estimated to have increased by 3° to 5°C, compared with Late Paleocene values, during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56.3 million years ago) event. We investigated the tropical forest response to this rapid warming by evaluating the palynological record of three stratigraphic sections in eastern Colombia and western Venezuela. We observed a rapid and distinct increase in plant diversity and origination rates, with a set of new taxa, mostly angiosperms, added to the existing stock of low-diversity Paleocene flora. There is no evidence for enhanced aridity in the northern Neotropics. The tropical rainforest was able to persist under elevated temperatures and high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, in contrast to speculations that tropical ecosystems were severely compromised by heat stress.}, }
@article {pmid21071659, year = {2010}, author = {Hoorn, C and Wesselingh, FP and ter Steege, H and Bermudez, MA and Mora, A and Sevink, J and Sanmartín, I and Sanchez-Meseguer, A and Anderson, CL and Figueiredo, JP and Jaramillo, C and Riff, D and Negri, FR and Hooghiemstra, H and Lundberg, J and Stadler, T and Särkinen, T and Antonelli, A}, title = {Amazonia through time: Andean uplift, climate change, landscape evolution, and biodiversity.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {330}, number = {6006}, pages = {927-931}, doi = {10.1126/science.1194585}, pmid = {21071659}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fossils ; Geography ; *Geological Phenomena ; Phylogeny ; Rivers ; South America ; Time ; Trees ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {The Amazonian rainforest is arguably the most species-rich terrestrial ecosystem in the world, yet the timing of the origin and evolutionary causes of this diversity are a matter of debate. We review the geologic and phylogenetic evidence from Amazonia and compare it with uplift records from the Andes. This uplift and its effect on regional climate fundamentally changed the Amazonian landscape by reconfiguring drainage patterns and creating a vast influx of sediments into the basin. On this "Andean" substrate, a region-wide edaphic mosaic developed that became extremely rich in species, particularly in Western Amazonia. We show that Andean uplift was crucial for the evolution of Amazonian landscapes and ecosystems, and that current biodiversity patterns are rooted deep in the pre-Quaternary.}, }
@article {pmid21070246, year = {2011}, author = {Brosi, GB and McCulley, RL and Bush, LP and Nelson, JA and Classen, AT and Norby, RJ}, title = {Effects of multiple climate change factors on the tall fescue-fungal endophyte symbiosis: infection frequency and tissue chemistry.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {189}, number = {3}, pages = {797-805}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03532.x}, pmid = {21070246}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Alkaloids/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; Cellulose/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Lolium/*physiology ; Mycorrhizae/*physiology ; *Neotyphodium ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Rain ; Stress, Physiological ; *Symbiosis/drug effects ; }, abstract = {• Climate change (altered CO(2) , warming, and precipitation) may affect plant-microbial interactions, such as the Lolium arundinaceum-Neotyphodium coenophialum symbiosis, to alter future ecosystem structure and function. • To assess this possibility, tall fescue tillers were collected from an existing climate manipulation experiment in a constructed old-field community in Tennessee (USA). Endophyte infection frequency (EIF) was determined, and infected (E+) and uninfected (E-) tillers were analysed for tissue chemistry. • The EIF of tall fescue was higher under elevated CO(2) (91% infected) than with ambient CO(2) (81%) but was not affected by warming or precipitation treatments. Within E+ tillers, elevated CO(2) decreased alkaloid concentrations of both ergovaline and loline, by c. 30%; whereas warming increased loline concentrations 28% but had no effect on ergovaline. Independent of endophyte infection, elevated CO(2) reduced concentrations of nitrogen, cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin. • These results suggest that elevated CO(2) , more than changes in temperature or precipitation, may promote this grass-fungal symbiosis, leading to higher EIF in tall fescue in old-field communities. However, as all three climate factors are likely to change in the future, predicting the symbiotic response and resulting ecological consequences may be difficult and dependent on the specific atmospheric and climatic conditions encountered.}, }
@article {pmid21063771, year = {2012}, author = {Bell, E and Horton, G and Blashki, G and Seidel, BM}, title = {Climate change: could it help develop 'adaptive expertise'?.}, journal = {Advances in health sciences education : theory and practice}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {211-224}, doi = {10.1007/s10459-010-9245-4}, pmid = {21063771}, issn = {1573-1677}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; *Clinical Competence ; Diffusion of Innovation ; Education, Medical/*methods ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Services Research ; Humans ; *Models, Educational ; Problem Solving ; Rural Health Services ; Teaching/methods ; }, abstract = {Preparing health practitioners to respond to the rising burden of disease from climate change is emerging as a priority in health workforce policy and planning. However, this issue is hardly represented in the medical education research. The rapidly evolving wide range of direct and indirect consequences of climate change will require health professionals to have not only broad content knowledge but also flexibility and responsiveness to diverse regional conditions as part of complex health problem-solving and adaptation. It is known that adaptive experts may not necessarily be quick at solving familiar problems, but they do creatively seek to better solve novel problems. This may be the result of an acquired approach to practice or a pathway that can be fostered by learning environments. It is also known that building adaptive expertise in medical education involves putting students on a learning pathway that requires them to have, first, the motivation to innovatively problem-solve and, second, exposure to diverse content material, meaningfully presented. Including curriculum content on the health effects of climate change could help meet these two conditions for some students at least. A working definition and illustrative competencies for adaptive expertise for climate change, as well as examples of teaching and assessment approaches extrapolated from rural curricula, are provided.}, }
@article {pmid21061748, year = {2010}, author = {Waxman, BP}, title = {Clinical research, carbon emissions, climate change and Copenhagen – our lifestyle on the line?.}, journal = {ANZ journal of surgery}, volume = {80}, number = {10}, pages = {678-679}, doi = {10.1111/j.1445-2197.2010.05455.x}, pmid = {21061748}, issn = {1445-2197}, mesh = {Biomedical Research/standards ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Pollution ; International Agencies ; *Life Style ; }, }
@article {pmid21060886, year = {2010}, author = {Artzy-Randrup, Y and Alonso, D and Pascual, M}, title = {Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {5}, number = {10}, pages = {e13588}, pmid = {21060886}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {//Howard Hughes Medical Institute/United States ; }, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology/*transmission ; }, abstract = {Although the spread of drug resistance and the influence of climate change on malaria are most often considered separately, these factors have the potential to interact through altered levels of transmission intensity. The influence of transmission intensity on the evolution of drug resistance has been addressed in theoretical studies from a population genetics' perspective; less is known however on how epidemiological dynamics at the population level modulates this influence. We ask from a theoretical perspective, whether population dynamics can explain non-trivial, non-monotonic, patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity, and, if so, under what conditions. We then address the implications of warmer temperatures in an East African highland, where, as in other similar regions at the altitudinal edge of malaria's distribution, there has been a pronounced increase of cases from the 1970s to the 1990s. Our theoretical analyses, with a transmission model that includes different levels of immunity, demonstrate that an increase in transmission beyond a threshold can lead to a decrease in drug resistance, as previously shown, but that a second threshold may occur and lead to the re-establishment of drug resistance. Estimates of the increase in transmission intensity from the 1970s to the 1990s for the Kenyan time series, obtained by fitting the two-stage version of the model with an explicit representation of vector dynamics, suggest that warmer temperatures are likely to have moved the system towards the first threshold, and in so doing, to have promoted the faster spread of drug resistance. Climate change and drug resistance can interact and need not be considered as alternative explanations for trends in disease incidence in this region. Non-monotonic patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity similar to those described as the 'valley phenomenon' for Uganda can result from epidemiological dynamics but under poorly understood assumptions.}, }
@article {pmid21058549, year = {2010}, author = {Hunter, CM and Caswell, H and Runge, MC and Regehr, EV and Amstrup, SC and Stirling, I}, title = {Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {10}, pages = {2883-2897}, doi = {10.1890/09-1641.1}, pmid = {21058549}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Stochastic Processes ; Time Factors ; Uncertainty ; United States ; Ursidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.}, }
@article {pmid21057571, year = {2010}, author = {von Storch, H and Bray, D}, title = {Against politicization of science: Comment on S. Keller: Scientization: putting global climate change on the scientific agenda since 1970 and the role of the IPCC.}, journal = {Poiesis &amp; praxis : international journal of ethics of science and technology assessment}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {211-219}, pmid = {21057571}, issn = {1615-6609}, }
@article {pmid21057271, year = {2010}, author = {Fink, EL}, title = {Global warming after cardiac arrest in children exists.}, journal = {Pediatric critical care medicine : a journal of the Society of Critical Care Medicine and the World Federation of Pediatric Intensive and Critical Care Societies}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {760-761}, doi = {10.1097/PCC.0b013e3181d8e208}, pmid = {21057271}, issn = {1529-7535}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Body Temperature/*physiology ; *Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Fever/*epidemiology/physiopathology/prevention &amp; control ; Heart Arrest/*physiopathology/*therapy ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Prevalence ; Prognosis ; Registries ; United States/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid21053435, year = {2010}, author = {May, D}, title = {Plenty of hot air. Public health threats from global warming deserve attention, not derision.}, journal = {Modern healthcare}, volume = {40}, number = {42}, pages = {24}, pmid = {21053435}, issn = {0160-7480}, mesh = {*Conflict, Psychological ; *Global Warming ; *Public Health ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid21051074, year = {2011}, author = {Darling, WG}, title = {The isotope hydrology of Quaternary climate change.}, journal = {Journal of human evolution}, volume = {60}, number = {4}, pages = {417-427}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhevol.2010.05.006}, pmid = {21051074}, issn = {1095-8606}, mesh = {Archaeology/*methods ; Climate Change ; Desert Climate ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Geology/methods ; Isotopes/*chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding the links between climate change and human migration and culture is an important theme in Quaternary archaeology. While oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes in high-latitude ice cores provide the ultimate detailed record of palaeoclimate extending back to the Middle Pleistocene, groundwater can act as a climate archive for areas at lower latitudes, permitting a degree of calibration for proxy records such as lake sediments, bones, and organic matter. Not only can oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes be measured on waters, but the temperature of recharge can be calculated from the amount of the atmospheric noble gases neon, argon, krypton, and xenon in solution, while residence time can be estimated from the decay of the radioisotopes carbon-14, chlorine-36, and krypton-81 over timescales comparable to the ice core record. The Pleistocene-Holocene transition is well characterised in aquifers worldwide, and it is apparent that isotope-temperature relationships of the present day are not necessarily transferable to past climatic regimes, with important implications for the interpretation of proxy isotope data. Groundwaters dating back to one million years, i.e., to beyond the Middle Pleistocene, are only found in major aquifer basins and information is relatively sparse and of low resolution. Speleothem fluid inclusions offer a way of considerably increasing this resolution, but both speleothem formation and large-scale groundwater recharge requires humid conditions, which may be relatively infrequent for areas currently experiencing arid climates. Both types of record therefore require caution in their interpretation when considering a particular archaeological context.}, }
@article {pmid21049870, year = {2010}, author = {Minteer, BA and Collins, JP}, title = {Move it or lose it? The ecological ethics of relocating species under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {20}, number = {7}, pages = {1801-1804}, doi = {10.1890/10-0318.1}, pmid = {21049870}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bioethical Issues ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Policy ; Extinction, Biological ; }, abstract = {Managed relocation (also known as assisted colonization, assisted migration) is one of the more controversial proposals to emerge in the ecological community in recent years. A conservation strategy involving the translocation of species to novel ecosystems in anticipation of range shifts forced by climate change, managed relocation (MR) has divided many ecologists and conservationists, mostly because of concerns about the potential invasion risk of the relocated species in their new environments. While this is indeed an important consideration in any evaluation of MR, moving species across the landscape in response to predicted climate shifts also raises a number of larger and important ethical and policy challenges that need to be addressed. These include evaluating the implications of a more aggressive approach to species conservation, assessing MR as a broader ecological policy and philosophy that departs from longstanding scientific and management goals focused on preserving ecological integrity, and considering MR within a more comprehensive ethical and policy response to climate change. Given the complexity and novelty of many of the issues at stake in the MR debate, a more dynamic and pragmatic approach to ethical analysis and debate is needed to help ecologists, conservationists, and environmental decision makers come to grips with MR and the emerging ethical challenges of ecological policy and management under global environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid21043122, year = {2010}, author = {Li, Y and Yang, XG and Dai, SW and Wang, WF}, title = {[Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of late spring cold in Guizhou Province under global climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {2099-2108}, pmid = {21043122}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Temperature ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Global Warming ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1959-2007 observation data of daily mean temperature from 19 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province, and combining with the late spring cold (LSC) intensity index and disaster grade division standard, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of LSC, including LSC occurrence frequency, ratio of LSC-occurring stations to all stations, decadal variation, abrupt climate change, and periodic variation, in the province. In 1959-2007, the occurrence frequency of no LSC in the province was the highest, followed by serious LSC, and that of medium and slight LSC was approximately the same. Under the background of global warming, the ratio of medium LSC-occurring stations to all stations had the most obvious variation, with the climatic trend reached 1.4% x (10 a)(-1), while the ratios of no LSC-, slight LSC-, and serious LSC- occurring stations all showed an appreciably decreasing trend. The LSC intensity in the province was the highest in the 1990s, followed by in the 1980s, 1960s, 1970s, and 2000-2007. In the province, the LSC intensity showed an increasing trend in west and northwest high altitude areas, central area, and north area, but an appreciably decreasing trend in east and south areas. In the west, northwest, north, and central areas of the province, LSC intensity had a mutation from low to high in 1975. The LSC in the province had an obvious periodical variation, with the inter-annual period being mainly 2-4 years, and the decadal periods being mainly 13 - 15 years and 27-29 years.}, }
@article {pmid22473251, year = {2010}, author = {Akın, C and Bilgin, CC and Beerli, P and Westaway, R and Ohst, T and Litvinchuk, SN and Uzzell, T and Bilgin, M and Hotz, H and Guex, GD and Plötner, J}, title = {Phylogeographic patterns of genetic diversity in eastern Mediterranean water frogs have been determined by geological processes and climate change in the Late Cenozoic.}, journal = {Journal of biogeography}, volume = {37}, number = {11}, pages = {2111-2124}, pmid = {22473251}, issn = {0305-0270}, support = {R01 GM078985/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 GM078985-01/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 GM078985-02/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 GM078985-03/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {AIM: Our aims were to assess the phylogeographic patterns of genetic diversity in eastern Mediterranean water frogs and to estimate divergence times using different geological scenarios. We related divergence times to past geological events and discuss the relevance of our data for the systematics of eastern Mediterranean water frogs. LOCATION: The eastern Mediterranean region. METHODS: Genetic diversity and divergence were calculated using sequences of two protein-coding mitochondrial (mt) genes: ND2 (1038 bp, 119 sequences) and ND3 (340 bp, 612 sequences). Divergence times were estimated in a Bayesian framework under four geological scenarios representing alternative possible geological histories for the eastern Mediterranean. We then compared the different scenarios using Bayes factors and additional geological data. RESULTS: Extensive genetic diversity in mtDNA divides eastern Mediterranean water frogs into six main haplogroups (MHG). Three MHGs were identified on the Anatolian mainland; the most widespread MHG with the highest diversity is distributed from western Anatolia to the northern shore of the Caspian Sea, including the type locality of Pelophylax ridibundus. The other two Anatolian MHGs are restricted to south-eastern Turkey, occupying localities west and east of the Amanos mountain range. One of the remaining three MHGs is restricted to Cyprus; a second to the Levant; the third was found in the distribution area of European lake frogs (P. ridibundus group), including the Balkans. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Based on geological evidence and estimates of genetic divergence we hypothesize that the water frogs of Cyprus have been isolated from the Anatolian mainland populations since the end of the Messinian salinity crisis (MSC), i.e. since c. 5.5-5.3 Ma, while our divergence time estimates indicate that the isolation of Crete from the mainland populations (Peloponnese, Anatolia) most likely pre-dates the MSC. The observed rates of divergence imply a time window of c. 1.6-1.1 million years for diversification of the largest Anatolian MHG; divergence between the two other Anatolian MHGs may have begun about 3.0 Ma, apparently as a result of uplift of the Amanos Mountains. Our mtDNA data suggest that the Anatolian water frogs and frogs from Cyprus represent several undescribed species.}, }
@article {pmid21030625, year = {2010}, author = {Gibbons, A}, title = {Society of Vertebrate Paleontology. Going back to the future to understand climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {330}, number = {6004}, pages = {582}, doi = {10.1126/science.330.6004.582}, pmid = {21030625}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Crotalus/*physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Fossils ; Fur Seals/*physiology ; Rodentia/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid20977270, year = {2010}, author = {Wu, X and Lam, JC and Xia, C and Kang, H and Sun, L and Xie, Z and Lam, PK}, title = {Atmospheric HCH concentrations over the Marine Boundary Layer from Shanghai, China to the Arctic Ocean: role of human activity and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {22}, pages = {8422-8428}, doi = {10.1021/es102127h}, pmid = {20977270}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Arctic Regions ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; China ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hexachlorocyclohexane/*analysis ; }, abstract = {From July to September 2008, air samples were collected aboard the research expedition icebreaker XueLong (Snow Dragon) as part of the 2008 Chinese Arctic Research Expedition Program. Hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) concentrations were analyzed in all of the samples. The average concentrations (± standard deviation) over the entire period were 33 ± 16, 5.4 ± 3.0, and 13 ± 7.5 pg m[-3] for α-, β- and γ-HCH, respectively. Compared to previous studies in the same areas, total HCH (ΣHCH, the sum of α-, β-, and γ-HCH) levels declined by more than 10 × compared to those observed in the 1990s, but were approximately 4 × higher than those measured by the 2003 China Arctic Research Expedition, suggesting the increase of atmospheric ΣHCH recently. Because of the continuing use of lindane, ratios of α/γ-HCH showed an obvious decrease in North Pacific and Arctic region compared with those for 2003 Chinese Arctic Research Expedition. In Arctic, the level of α-HCH was found to be linked to sea ice distribution. Geographically, the average concentration of α-HCH in air samples from the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, neither of which contain sea ice, was 23 ± 4.4 pg m[-3], while samples from the area covered by seasonal ice (∼75°N to ∼83°N), the so-called "floating sea ice region", contained the highest average levels of α-HCH at 48 ± 12 pg m[-3], likely due to emission from sea ice and strong air-sea exchange. The lowest concentrations of α-HCH were observed in the pack ice region in the high Arctic covered by multiyear sea ice (∼83°N to ∼86°N). This phenomenon implies that the re-emission of HCH trapped in ice sheets and Arctic Ocean may accelerate during the summer as ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean decreases in response to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20976104, year = {2010}, author = {Classen, AT and Norby, RJ and Campany, CE and Sides, KE and Weltzin, JF}, title = {Climate change alters seedling emergence and establishment in an old-field ecosystem.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {5}, number = {10}, pages = {e13476}, pmid = {20976104}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Ecological succession drives large-scale changes in ecosystem composition over time, but the mechanisms whereby climatic change might alter succession remain unresolved. Here, we asked if the effects of atmospheric and climatic change would alter tree seedling emergence and establishment in an old-field ecosystem, recognizing that small shifts in rates of seedling emergence and establishment of different species may have long-term repercussions on the transition of fields to forests in the future.<br><br>We introduced seeds from three early successional tree species into constructed old-field plant communities that had been subjected for 4 years to altered temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO(2) regimes in an experimental facility. Our experiment revealed that different combinations of atmospheric CO(2) concentration, air temperature, and soil moisture altered seedling emergence and establishment. Treatments directly and indirectly affected soil moisture, which was the best predictor of seedling establishment, though treatment effects differed among species.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The observed impacts, coupled with variations in the timing of seed arrival, are demonstrated as predictors of seedling emergence and establishment in ecosystems under global change.}, }
@article {pmid20975722, year = {2010}, author = {Woolf, D and Amonette, JE and Street-Perrott, FA and Lehmann, J and Joseph, S}, title = {Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change.}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {56}, pmid = {20975722}, issn = {2041-1723}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Charcoal ; *Climate Change ; Methane/metabolism ; Nitrous Oxide/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO(2)-C equivalent (CO(2)-C(e)) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO(2)-C(e) emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO(2)-C(e), without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset.}, }
@article {pmid20974916, year = {2010}, author = {O'Gorman, PA}, title = {Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {45}, pages = {19176-19180}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1011547107}, pmid = {20974916}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Cyclonic Storms ; Global Warming ; Seasons ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.}, }
@article {pmid20962822, year = {2010}, author = {Rosenzweig, C and Solecki, W and Hammer, SA and Mehrotra, S}, title = {Cities lead the way in climate-change action.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {467}, number = {7318}, pages = {909-911}, doi = {10.1038/467909a}, pmid = {20962822}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Cities/statistics &amp; numerical data ; City Planning/*trends ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disasters/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecology/*trends ; Ecosystem ; Leadership ; Research/*trends ; Research Personnel ; Risk Assessment ; }, }
@article {pmid20961467, year = {2011}, author = {Hu, G and Cheng, XN and Qi, GJ and Wang, FY and Lu, F and Zhang, XX and Zhai, BP}, title = {Rice planting systems, global warming and outbreaks of Nilaparvata lugens (Stål).}, journal = {Bulletin of entomological research}, volume = {101}, number = {2}, pages = {187-199}, doi = {10.1017/S0007485310000313}, pmid = {20961467}, issn = {1475-2670}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Animals ; China ; Global Warming ; Hemiptera/*physiology ; Oryza/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Brown Planthopper (BPH, Nilaparvata lugens (Stål)) is one of the most serious pests of rice in both temperate and tropical regions of East and South Asia and has become especially problematic over the past few years. In order to analyze the effect of the change of rice cropping system on the population dynamics of BPH, field surveys of the occurrence and distribution of BPH were performed and other relevant data, including light trap data and ovary dissection data were collected in nearly 40 Chinese counties encompassing six provinces (or municipalities), including Hainan, Guangxi, Anhui, Shanghai, Fujian and Guangdong from April to October in 2007.The mixed planting areas of single- and double-cropping rice in China include Hubei, South and Central Anhui, North Hunan, and North Jiangxi. In these areas, double-cropping rice has now been greatly reduced and single-cropping rice has been rapidly increasing since 1997. The surveys revealed that when the immigration peak of BPH occurred in June and July, the single-cropping rice was at the tillering to booting stage and fit for BPH, but early rice had already matured and most of late rice had not yet been transplanted. BPH immigrants from southern rice areas prefer to inhabit and breed in single-cropping rice paddies. Moreover, farming activities between early rice and late rice interrupted the continuous growth of BPH populations in double-cropping rice paddies. As a result, in comparison with data collected 30 years ago, the spatiotemporal dynamics and migration patterns of BPH have dramatically changed in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River. In the mixed planting areas, due to their high suitability, the BPH population in single-cropping rice grew so quickly that it caused serious local damage and there was mass emigration of macropterous progeny to the Yangtze River Delta in late August and early September.Global warming may also affect BPH populations, where results suggest steadily warmer autumns have occurred from the 1990s on, with such conditions gradually the norm. The combination of 'cooler summer' and 'warmer autumn' are conditions known to promote outbreaks of BPH in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Immigrant BPH arrivals in late August and September now cause serious damage to late-maturing mid-season rice and late rice in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River.}, }
@article {pmid20961050, year = {2010}, author = {Bell, AR and Lemos, MC and Scavia, D}, title = {Cattle, clean water, and climate change: policy choices for the Brazilian Agricultural Frontier.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {22}, pages = {8377-8384}, doi = {10.1021/es1034014}, pmid = {20961050}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animals ; Brazil ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environment ; *Environmental Policy ; Geologic Sediments/analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; Water Cycle ; Water Pollutants/analysis ; Water Pollution/*analysis ; Water Supply/*analysis ; }, abstract = {In the Amazonian agricultural frontier, pasture for cattle ranching is an important and potentially hazardous form of land use because of sediment erosion as pastures degrade. This relationship between ranching, sediment load, and water quality is likely to further exacerbate environmental impacts, particularly in the context of climate change. We examine the role that river basin councils (RBCs) - a water governance option of Brazil's 1997 National Water Act - might play in managing this nonpoint-source pollution in the Amazônian state of Rondônia. We implement a simple coupled rancher-water system model to compare two potential governance options: a bulk water cleanup charge (BWC) implemented by RBCs and a land-use fine (LUF) for failing to maintain riparian buffers. We find no significant advantage of BWC over LUF in reducing sediment loading while keeping ranching profitable, under a changing climate. We also fail to find in Rondônia the important stake in water issues that has driven water reform elsewhere in Brazil. Moreover, the comparative success of reforestation programs suggests these programs may, in fact, have the potential to manage nonpoint-source agricultural pollution in the region.}, }
@article {pmid20959714, year = {2010}, author = {Kim, SH and Jang, JY}, title = {[Correlations between climate change-related infectious diseases and meteorological factors in Korea].}, journal = {Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi}, volume = {43}, number = {5}, pages = {436-444}, doi = {10.3961/jpmph.2010.43.5.436}, pmid = {20959714}, issn = {1975-8375}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Climate ; Female ; Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Leptospirosis/*epidemiology ; Malaria/*epidemiology ; Male ; Meteorological Concepts ; Middle Aged ; Occupations ; Republic of Korea ; Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever/*epidemiology ; Seasons ; Vibrio Infections/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Infectious diseases are known to be affected by climate change. We investigated if the infectious diseases were related to meteorological factors in Korea.<br><br>METHODS: Scrub typhus, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), leptospirosis, malaria and Vibrio vulnificus sepsis among the National Notifiable Infectious Diseases were selected as the climate change-related infectious diseases. Temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were used as meteorological factors. The study period was from 2001 through 2008. We examined the seasonality of the diseases and those correlations with meteorological factors. We also analyzed the correlations between the incidences of the diseases during the outbreak periods and monthly meteorological factors in the hyper-endemic regions.<br><br>RESULTS: All of the investigated diseases showed strong seasonality; malaria and V. vulnificus sepsis were prevalent in summer and scrub typhus, HFRS and leptospirosis were prevalent in the autumn. There were significant correlations between the monthly numbers of cases and all the meteorological factors for malaria and V. vulnificus sepsis, but there were no correlation for the other diseases. However, the incidence of scrub typhus in hyper-endemic region during the outbreak period was positively correlated with temperature and humidity during the summer. The incidences of HFRS and leptospirosis had positive correlations with precipitation in November and temperature and humidity in February, respectively. V. vulnificus sepsis showed positive correlations with precipitation in April/May/July.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In Korea, the incidences of the infectious diseases were correlated with meteorological factors, and this implies that the incidences could be influenced by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20956375, year = {2010}, author = {Issar, AS and Adar, E}, title = {Progressive development of water resources in the Middle East for sustainable water supply in a period of climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1931}, pages = {5339-5350}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0184}, pmid = {20956375}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {The history of the Middle East has been influenced by past global climatic changes. Warm periods caused droughts, resulting in desertification, migration and war. Cold periods were humid and brought prosperity and agricultural settlement to the desert fringes. The forecast based on this correlation is that the present global warming will cause the drying up of the Middle East. As in the past, this negative impact should be mitigated by using the groundwater resources stored from past wetter times. This will involve deep drilling, pumping and modern irrigation methods within the framework of a new policy of 'progressive development', which will entail the use of currently undeveloped natural water resources beyond that of present water replenishment. While the use of the one-time groundwater reserves is taking place, a master long-term comprehensive progressive development plan for the Middle East will be prepared. This plan will include the step-by-step development of other water resources such as treated effluents, desalinated brackish groundwater and desalination of seawater.}, }
@article {pmid20956374, year = {2010}, author = {Tielbörger, K and Fleischer, A and Menzel, L and Metz, J and Sternberg, M}, title = {The aesthetics of water and land: a promising concept for managing scarce water resources under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1931}, pages = {5323-5337}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0143}, pmid = {20956374}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Animals ; Animals, Wild ; Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; *Esthetics ; *Fresh Water ; Humans ; Israel ; Mediterranean Region ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Rivers ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The eastern Mediterranean faces a severe water crisis: water supply decreases due to climate change, while demand increases due to rapid population growth. The GLOWA Jordan River project generates science-based management strategies for maximizing water productivity under global climate change. We use a novel definition of water productivity as the full range of services provided by landscapes per unit blue (surface) and green (in plants and soil) water. Our combined results from climatological, ecological, economic and hydrological studies suggest that, in Israel, certain landscapes provide high returns as ecosystem services for little input of additional blue water. Specifically, cultural services such as recreation may by far exceed that of food production. Interestingly, some highly valued landscapes (e.g. rangeland) appear resistant to climate change, making them an ideal candidate for adaptive land management. Vice versa, expanding irrigated agriculture is unlikely to be sustainable under global climate change. We advocate the inclusion of a large range of ecosystem services into integrated land and water resources management. The focus on cultural services and integration of irrigation demand will lead to entirely different but productive water and land allocation schemes that may be suitable for withstanding the problems caused by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20956366, year = {2010}, author = {Wade, AJ and Black, E and Brayshaw, DJ and El-Bastawesy, M and Holmes, PA and Butterfield, D and Nuimat, S and Jamjoum, K}, title = {A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1931}, pages = {5151-5172}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0207}, pmid = {20956366}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forecasting ; Jordan ; Models, Theoretical ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Water Cycle/physiology ; Water Movements ; *Water Supply ; Weather ; }, abstract = {This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.}, }
@article {pmid20948943, year = {2010}, author = {Beggs, PJ}, title = {Adaptation to impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and allergic respiratory diseases.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {7}, number = {8}, pages = {3006-3021}, pmid = {20948943}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Air Pollution, Indoor ; Allergens/*adverse effects ; City Planning ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Respiratory Hypersensitivity/*chemically induced ; }, abstract = {Climate change has the potential to have many significant impacts on aeroallergens such as pollen and mould spores, and therefore related diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis. This paper critically reviews this topic, with a focus on the potential adaptation measures that have been identified to date. These are aeroallergen monitoring; aeroallergen forecasting; allergenic plant management; planting practices and policies; urban/settlement planning; building design and heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC); access to health care and medications; education; and research.}, }
@article {pmid20948551, year = {2010}, author = {Singh, BK and Bardgett, RD and Smith, P and Reay, DS}, title = {Microorganisms and climate change: terrestrial feedbacks and mitigation options.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {779-790}, pmid = {20948551}, issn = {1740-1534}, mesh = {Animals ; Biofuels ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Feedback, Physiological ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control ; Methane/metabolism ; Microbial Consortia/*physiology ; Microbial Interactions/physiology ; Models, Biological ; Nitrous Oxide/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Microbial processes have a central role in the global fluxes of the key biogenic greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) and are likely to respond rapidly to climate change. Whether changes in microbial processes lead to a net positive or negative feedback for greenhouse gas emissions is unclear. To improve the prediction of climate models, it is important to understand the mechanisms by which microorganisms regulate terrestrial greenhouse gas flux. This involves consideration of the complex interactions that occur between microorganisms and other biotic and abiotic factors. The potential to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions through managing terrestrial microbial processes is a tantalizing prospect for the future.}, }
@article {pmid20947877, year = {2010}, author = {Rennert, G}, title = {Colorectal cancer screening: will global warming affect the accuracy of FIT testing?.}, journal = {Gut}, volume = {59}, number = {11}, pages = {1451-1452}, doi = {10.1136/gut.2010.216291}, pmid = {20947877}, issn = {1468-3288}, mesh = {Colorectal Neoplasms/*diagnosis ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Immunologic Tests/standards ; Mass Screening/methods/standards ; *Occult Blood ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid20947734, year = {2010}, author = {Stone, R}, title = {Climate change. Climate talks still at impasse, China buffs its green reputation.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {330}, number = {6002}, pages = {305}, doi = {10.1126/science.330.6002.305}, pmid = {20947734}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20947468, year = {2011}, author = {Sheffield, PE and Landrigan, PJ}, title = {Global climate change and children's health: threats and strategies for prevention.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {3}, pages = {291-298}, pmid = {20947468}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {T32 HD049311/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; 5T32 HD049311/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Child, Preschool ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Environmental Policy ; Global Warming/mortality/prevention &amp; control/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Health Status ; Health Status Indicators ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Morbidity/trends ; Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global climate change will have multiple effects on human health. Vulnerable populations-children, the elderly, and the poor-will be disproportionately affected.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: We reviewed projected impacts of climate change on children's health, the pathways involved in these effects, and prevention strategies.<br><br>DATA SOURCES: We assessed primary studies, review articles, and organizational reports.<br><br>DATA SYNTHESIS: Climate change is increasing the global burden of disease and in the year 2000 was responsible for > 150,000 deaths worldwide. Of this disease burden, 88% fell upon children. Documented health effects include changing ranges of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue; increased diarrheal and respiratory disease; increased morbidity and mortality from extreme weather; changed exposures to toxic chemicals; worsened poverty; food and physical insecurity; and threats to human habitation. Heat-related health effects for which research is emerging include diminished school performance, increased rates of pregnancy complications, and renal effects. Stark variation in these outcomes is evident by geographic region and socioeconomic status, and these impacts will exacerbate health disparities. Prevention strategies to reduce health impacts of climate change include reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation through multiple public health interventions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Further quantification of the effects of climate change on children's health is needed globally and also at regional and local levels through enhanced monitoring of children's environmental health and by tracking selected indicators. Climate change preparedness strategies need to be incorporated into public health programs.}, }
@article {pmid20943480, year = {2010}, author = {}, title = {System change-not climate change: a people's declaration from Klimaforum09.}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {387-395}, doi = {10.2190/NS.20.3.k}, pmid = {20943480}, issn = {1048-2911}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; *Internationality ; }, }
@article {pmid20937056, year = {2010}, author = {Altermatt, F}, title = {Tell me what you eat and I'll tell you when you fly: diet can predict phenological changes in response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {13}, number = {12}, pages = {1475-1484}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01534.x}, pmid = {20937056}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; Butterflies/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Diet ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Flight, Animal/*physiology ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Changes in phenology are correlated with climate change. However, we still struggle to understand the traits making species susceptible to climate change, and the implications of species' reactions for communities and food webs. Butterflies and moths are an ecologically important group that have shown pronounced phenological changes over the last decades. Tests using a > 150-year dataset from 566 European butterfly and moth species demonstrated that variation in phenological change was strongly related to traits describing plant-herbivore interactions (larval diet breadth, diet composition), and the life cycle. The results indicate that climate change related shifts in phenology are correlated with the seasonal availability and palatability of food plants. Lepidopterans feeding on herbaceous plants showed smaller shifts in flight periods but larger increases in voltinism than lepidopterans feeding on woody plants. Consequently, the effect of herbivorous lepidopterans may increase in herb-rich grassland ecosystems under warmer conditions, and not in forest ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid20935004, year = {2010}, author = {Sulbaek Andersen, MP and Sander, SP and Nielsen, OJ and Wagner, DS and Sanford, TJ and Wallington, TJ}, title = {Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change.}, journal = {British journal of anaesthesia}, volume = {105}, number = {6}, pages = {760-766}, doi = {10.1093/bja/aeq259}, pmid = {20935004}, issn = {1471-6771}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*chemistry ; Anesthetics, Inhalation/*chemistry ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Desflurane ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Isoflurane/analogs &amp; derivatives/chemistry ; Methyl Ethers/chemistry ; Sevoflurane ; Spectrophotometry, Infrared/methods ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric lifetimes are required.<br><br>METHODS: We have measured the IR spectra of these anaesthetics and conducted calculations of their contribution to radiative forcing of climate change recognizing the important fact that radiative forcing is strongly dependent on the wavelength of the absorption features.<br><br>RESULTS: Radiative efficiencies of 0.453, 0.469, and 0.351 W m(-2) ppb(-1) and global warming potentials (GWPs) of 510, 1620, and 210 (100 yr time horizon) were established for isoflurane, desflurane, and sevoflurane, respectively.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of the derived 100 yr GWPs, the average climate impact per anaesthetic procedure at the University of Michigan is the same as the emission of &#x223c;22 kg CO(2). We estimate that the global emissions of inhalation anaesthetics have a climate impact which is comparable with that from the CO(2) emissions from one coal-fired power plant or 1 million passenger cars.}, }
@article {pmid20934318, year = {2011}, author = {Rogger, C and Beaurain, F and Schmidt, TS}, title = {Composting projects under the Clean Development Mechanism: sustainable contribution to mitigate climate change.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {138-146}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2010.09.007}, pmid = {20934318}, issn = {1879-2456}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Policy ; International Cooperation ; *Program Evaluation ; Soil ; Waste Management/*methods ; }, abstract = {The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries and at the same time to assist these countries in sustainable development. While composting as a suitable mitigation option in the waste sector can clearly contribute to the former goal there are indications that high rents can also be achieved regarding the latter. In this article composting is compared with other CDM project types inside and outside the waste sector with regards to both project numbers and contribution to sustainable development. It is found that, despite the high number of waste projects, composting is underrepresented and a major reason for this fact is identified. Based on a multi-criteria analysis it is shown that composting has a higher potential for contribution to sustainable development than most other best in class projects. As these contributions can only be assured if certain requirements are followed, eight key obligations are presented.}, }
@article {pmid20930887, year = {2010}, author = {Slaney, D and Derraik, JG and Weinstein, P}, title = {Driving disease emergence: will land-use changes beat climate change to the punch?.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {123}, number = {1322}, pages = {5-7}, pmid = {20930887}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*epidemiology ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Disease Outbreaks/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Environment ; Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid20929684, year = {2011}, author = {Kolstad, EW and Johansson, KA}, title = {Uncertainties associated with quantifying climate change impacts on human health: a case study for diarrhea.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {119}, number = {3}, pages = {299-305}, pmid = {20929684}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Air Pollution/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Diarrhea/*epidemiology ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greenhouse Effect/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century.<br><br>METHODS: We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed.<br><br>RESULTS: The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4&#xb0;C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8-11% (with SDs of 3-5%) by 2010-2039 and 22-29% (SDs of 9-12%) by 2070-2099.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate-health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health.}, }
@article {pmid20926481, year = {2010}, author = {Hawkes, N}, title = {Climate Change. Giving it 10%.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {341}, number = {}, pages = {c5448}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.c5448}, pmid = {20926481}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Pollutants ; Private Sector ; State Medicine/*organization &amp; administration ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid20923220, year = {2010}, author = {Ma, J and Cao, Z}, title = {Quantifying the perturbations of persistent organic pollutants induced by climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {22}, pages = {8567-8573}, doi = {10.1021/es101771g}, pmid = {20923220}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Movements ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Environmental Pollutants/analysis/*chemistry ; Fresh Water/chemistry ; Hexachlorobenzene/analysis/chemistry ; Hexachlorocyclohexane/analysis/chemistry ; *Models, Chemical ; Polychlorinated Biphenyls/analysis/chemistry ; Soil/chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {A perturbed air-surface coupled model has been developed to simulate and predict perturbations of POPs concentrations in various environmental media under given climate change scenarios. By introducing the perturbations in air temperature and precipitation induced by climate change in the model, we have examined the corresponding perturbations in the concentration of POPs in the closed air-soil and air-water systems. Numerical experiments for several POPs have been conducted based on the possible future climate change scenarios. It was found that hexachlorobenzene (HCB), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), and a polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs) congener, PCB-153, exhibit strong response to specified climate change scenarios as shown by their high concentrations perturbations in air. In the air-soil system the coupled model predicts 4-50% increases in the air concentrations of these chemicals corresponding to an increase of 0.05-0.1 K yr(-1) in the air temperature. Based on our simulations, a 20% increase/decrease in precipitation can result in a 53% and 4% decrease/increase in perturbed air concentration of γ-HCH and α-HCH, respectively. Also, the model can be used to determine the direction of air-surface exchange of POP perturbations induced by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20923094, year = {2010}, author = {Lee, E and Seong, C and Hakkwan, K and Park, S and Kang, M}, title = {Predicting the impacts of climate change on nonpoint source pollutant loads from agricultural small watershed using artificial neural network.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {840-845}, doi = {10.1016/s1001-0742(09)60186-8}, pmid = {20923094}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Agrochemicals/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; *Neural Networks, Computer ; *Water Movements ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {This study described the development and validation of an artificial neural network (ANN) for the purpose of analyzing the effects of climate change on nonpoint source (NPS) pollutant loads from agricultural small watershed. The runoff discharge was estimated using ANN algorithm. The performance of ANN modelwas examined using observed data from s tudy watershed. The simulationresults agreed well with observed values during calibration and validation periods. NPS pollutant loads were calculated from load-discharge relationship driven by long-term monitoring data. LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator) model was used to generate rainfall data. The calibrated ANN model and load-discharge relationship with the generated data from LARS-WGwere applied to analyze the effects of climate change on NPS pollutant loads from the agricultural small watershed. The results showed that the ANN model provided valuable approach i n estimating future runof f discharge, and the NPS pollutantloads.}, }
@article {pmid20922727, year = {2010}, author = {Dameris, M}, title = {Climate change and atmospheric chemistry: how will the stratospheric ozone layer develop?.}, journal = {Angewandte Chemie (International ed. in English)}, volume = {49}, number = {44}, pages = {8092-8102}, doi = {10.1002/anie.201001643}, pmid = {20922727}, issn = {1521-3773}, abstract = {The discovery of the ozone hole over Antarctica in 1985 was a surprise for science. For a few years the reasons of the ozone hole was speculated about. Soon it was obvious that predominant meteorological conditions led to a specific situation developing in this part of the atmosphere: Very low temperatures initiate chemical processes that at the end cause extreme ozone depletion at altitudes of between about 15 and 30 km. So-called polar stratospheric clouds play a key role. Such clouds develop at temperatures below about 195 K. Heterogeneous chemical reactions on cloud particles initiate the destruction of ozone molecules. The future evolution of the ozone layer will not only depend on the further development of concentrations of ozone-depleting substances, but also significantly on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20889150, year = {2010}, author = {Agho, K and Stevens, G and Taylor, M and Barr, M and Raphael, B}, title = {Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {110}, number = {8}, pages = {756-763}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2010.09.007}, pmid = {20889150}, issn = {1096-0953}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Australia ; Family Characteristics ; Female ; *Global Warming ; *Health Status ; Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Multivariate Analysis ; *Perception ; Risk Factors ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes.<br><br>METHODS: A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors.<br><br>RESULTS: Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of global warming.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion of respondents reported that they perceived that global warming would worsen, were concerned that it would affect them and their families and had already made changes in their lives because of it. These findings support a readiness in the population to deal with global warming. Future research and programs are needed to investigate population-level strategies for future action.}, }
@article {pmid20882390, year = {2011}, author = {Valtonen, A and Ayres, MP and Roininen, H and Pöyry, J and Leinonen, R}, title = {Environmental controls on the phenology of moths: predicting plasticity and constraint under climate change.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {165}, number = {1}, pages = {237-248}, pmid = {20882390}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Cues ; Finland ; Flight, Animal ; Geography ; Models, Biological ; Moths/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Oviposition ; Photoperiod ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Ecological systems have naturally high interannual variance in phenology. Component species have presumably evolved to maintain appropriate phenologies under historical climates, but cases of inappropriate phenology can be expected with climate change. Understanding controls on phenology permits predictions of ecological responses to climate change. We studied phenological control systems in Lepidoptera by analyzing flight times recorded at a network of sites in Finland. We evaluated the strength and form of controls from temperature and photoperiod, and tested for geographic variation within species. Temperature controls on phenology were evident in 51% of 112 study species and for a third of those thermal controls appear to be modified by photoperiodic cues. For 24% of the total, photoperiod by itself emerged as the most likely control system. Species with thermal control alone should be most immediately responsive in phenology to climate warming, but variably so depending upon the minimum temperature at which appreciable development occurs and the thermal responsiveness of development rate. Photoperiodic modification of thermal controls constrains phenotypic responses in phenologies to climate change, but can evolve to permit local adaptation. Our results suggest that climate change will alter the phenological structure of the Finnish Lepidoptera community in ways that are predictable with knowledge of the proximate physiological controls. Understanding how phenological controls in Lepidoptera compare to that of their host plants and enemies could permit general inferences regarding climatic effects on mid- to high-latitude ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid20880245, year = {2010}, author = {Wiley, LF}, title = {Mitigation/adaptation and health: health policymaking in the global response to climate change and implications for other upstream determinants.}, journal = {The Journal of law, medicine &amp; ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine &amp; Ethics}, volume = {38}, number = {3}, pages = {629-639}, doi = {10.1111/j.1748-720X.2010.00516.x}, pmid = {20880245}, issn = {1748-720X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Health Planning/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*organization &amp; administration ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {The time is ripe for innovation in global health governance if we are to achieve global health and development objectives in the face of formidable challenges. Integration of global health concerns into the law and governance of other, related disciplines should be given high priority. This article explores opportunities for health policymaking in the global response to climate change. Climate change and environmental degradation will affect weather disasters, food and water security, infectious disease patterns, and air pollution. Although scientific research has pointed to the interdependence of the global environment and human health, policymakers have been slow to integrate their approaches to environmental and health concerns. A robust response to climate change will require improved integration on two fronts: health concerns must be given higher priority in the response to climate change and threats associated with climate change and environmental degradation must be more adequately addressed by global health law and governance. The mitigation/adaptation response paradigm developing within and beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change provides a useful framework for thinking about global health law and governance with respect to climate change, environmental degradation, and possibly other upstream determinants of health as well.}, }
@article {pmid20879549, year = {2010}, author = {Zhou, XY and Zhang, CY and Guo, GF}, title = {[Effects of climate change on forest soil organic carbon storage: a review].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {7}, pages = {1867-1874}, pmid = {20879549}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Carbon/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Organic Chemicals/*analysis ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; Soil/*analysis ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Forest soil organic carbon is an important component of global carbon cycle, and the changes of its accumulation and decomposition directly affect terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and global carbon balance. Climate change would affect the photosynthesis of forest vegetation and the decomposition and transformation of forest soil organic carbon, and further, affect the storage and dynamics of organic carbon in forest soils. Temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and other climatic factors all have important influences on the forest soil organic carbon storage. Understanding the effects of climate change on this storage is helpful to the scientific management of forest carbon sink, and to the feasible options for climate change mitigation. This paper summarized the research progress about the distribution of organic carbon storage in forest soils, and the effects of elevated temperature, precipitation change, and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on this storage, with the further research subjects discussed.}, }
@article {pmid20879523, year = {2010}, author = {Guo, R and Bu, RC and Hu, YM and Chang, Y and He, HS and Liu, XM and Zhang, ZQ}, title = {[Simulation of timber-harvesting area in Xiao Xing' anling Mountains under climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {7}, pages = {1681-1688}, pmid = {20879523}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Forestry/*methods ; *Models, Theoretical ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {By using the spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS 6.0 PRO), the percentages of timber-harvesting area in Xiao Xing' anling Mountains under current harvesting scenario and under 11 harvesting scenarios with alternating harvesting intensities (alternating time was 10, 20 and 30 years, respectively) in 2000-2400 under climate change were simulated. Alternating harvesting intensity could increase the harvesting area. Comparing with current harvesting scenario, the simulated scenarios could increase the harvesting area by 3%-5% at short term (10-30 years), 2.5%-7% at medium term (40-60 years), and 3.5%-8% at long term (70-100 years). On the whole, the current total harvesting area was still high. Alternating harvesting-intensity could increase the harvesting area within a definite term, but the effect would be unsustainable. To have a sustainable development of forestry in the study area, it is necessary to reduce the harvesting intensity and change the forest management policy.}, }
@article {pmid20873680, year = {2010}, author = {Nibleus, K and Lundin, R}, title = {Climate change and mitigation.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {39 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {11-17}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-010-0058-8}, pmid = {20873680}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Fossil Fuels ; }, abstract = {Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session "Climate Change and Mitigation" the speakers offered four different views on coal and CO2: the basis for life, but also a major hazard with impact on Earth's climate. A common denominator in the presentations was that more than ever science and technology is required. We need not only understand the mechanisms for climate change and climate variability, we also need to identify means to remedy the anthropogenic influence on Earth's climate.}, }
@article {pmid20866072, year = {2010}, author = {Pan, X}, title = {China: a responsible country in mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {21}, pages = {7981; author reply 7982}, doi = {10.1021/es102977r}, pmid = {20866072}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Social Responsibility ; }, }
@article {pmid20860034, year = {2010}, author = {Linkov, I and Bridges, TS and Hady, A and Jónsdóttir, I and Kiker, G and Lambert, J and Macbride, M and Palma-Oliveira, JM and Ranger, N and Russo, E and Troccoli, A}, title = {Brief summary of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) advanced research workshop on global climate change and local adaptation.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {617-618}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.127}, pmid = {20860034}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate Change ; *International Agencies ; *Research ; Security Measures ; }, }
@article {pmid20854570, year = {2010}, author = {Heleen, B}, title = {The climate change debate: Another perspective.}, journal = {Australian occupational therapy journal}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, pages = {73-74}, doi = {10.1111/j.1440-1630.2009.00846.x}, pmid = {20854570}, issn = {1440-1630}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Adaptation, Psychological ; Climate Change/*economics ; Consensus ; Conservation of Energy Resources/*economics ; Humans ; New Zealand ; *Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid20854544, year = {2009}, author = {Pereira, RB}, title = {The climate change debate: ageing and the impacts on participating in meaningful occupations.}, journal = {Australian occupational therapy journal}, volume = {56}, number = {5}, pages = {365-366}, doi = {10.1111/j.1440-1630.2009.00792.x}, pmid = {20854544}, issn = {1440-1630}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Aged ; Australia ; Career Choice ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; *Occupational Therapy ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid20853386, year = {2010}, author = {Jiménez, E and Antiñolo, M and Ballesteros, B and Martínez, E and Albaladejo, J}, title = {Atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials of CF3CH2CH2OH and CF3(CH2)2CH2OH.}, journal = {Chemphyschem : a European journal of chemical physics and physical chemistry}, volume = {11}, number = {18}, pages = {4079-4087}, doi = {10.1002/cphc.201000365}, pmid = {20853386}, issn = {1439-7641}, abstract = {A comprehensive study of several atmospheric degradation routes for two hydrofluoroalcohols, CF(3)(CH(2))(x=1,2)CH(2)OH, is presented. The gas-phase kinetics of their reactions with hydroxyl radicals (OH) and chlorine (Cl) atoms are investigated by absolute and relative techniques, respectively. The room-temperature rate coefficients (±σ, in cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) k(OH) and k(Cl), are respectively (9.7±1.1)×10(-13) and (1.60±0.45)×10(-11) for CF(3)CH(2)CH(2)OH, and (2.62±0.32)×10(-12) and (8.71±0.24)×10(-11) for CF(3)(CH(2))(2)CH(2)OH. Average lifetimes of CF(3)CH(2)CH(2)OH and CF(3)(CH(2))(2)CH(2)OH due to the OH and Cl reactions are estimated to be 12 and 4 days, and greater than 20 and 4 years, respectively. Also, the IR and UV absorption cross sections of CF(3)(CH(2))(x=1,2)CH(2)OH are determined in the spectral ranges of 500-4000 cm(-1) and 200-310 nm. Photolysis of CF(3)(CH(2))(x=1,2)CH(2)OH in the actinic region (λ≥290 nm) is negligible compared to their homogeneous removal. Additionally, computational IR spectra are consistent with the experimental ones, thus giving high confidence in the obtained results. The lifetimes of CF(3)(CH(2))(x=1,2)CH(2)OH and IR spectra reported herein allow the calculation of the direct global warming potential of these hydrofluoroalcohols. The contribution of CF(3)(CH(2))(x)CH(2)OH to radiative forcing of climate change will be negligible.}, }
@article {pmid20848755, year = {2010}, author = {Nierenberg, N and Tschinkel, WR and Tschinkel, VJ}, title = {Early climate change consensus at the National Academy: the origins and making of "Changing Climate".}, journal = {Historical studies in the natural sciences}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {318-349}, doi = {10.1525/hsns.2010.40.3.318}, pmid = {20848755}, issn = {1939-1811}, mesh = {*Advisory Committees/history ; *Climate ; Climate Change/history ; *Global Warming/history ; History, 20th Century ; *National Academy of Sciences, U.S./history ; *Public Health/education/history ; Research/history ; Research Personnel/education/history/psychology ; United States/ethnology ; }, abstract = {The 1983 National Academy of Sciences report entitled "Changing Climate," authored by a committee of physical and social scientists chaired by William Nierenberg, was an early comprehensive review of the effects of human-caused increases in the levels of atmospheric CO2. Study of the events surrounding the committee's creation, deliberations, and subsequent report demonstrates that the conclusions of the report were the consensus of the entire committee and in line with the scientific consensus of the time. This result contraverts a 2008 paper in which Naomi Oreskes, Erik M. Conway, and Matthew Shindell asserted that the report contradicted a growing consensus about climate change, and that Nierenberg for political reasons deliberately altered the summary and conclusions of the report in a way that played down the concerns of the other physical scientists on the committee. Examining the production of the report and contextualizing it in contemporaneous scientific and political discussion, we instead show how it was a multi-year effort with work divided among the various members of the committee according to their expertise. The synthesis and conclusions were expressly a joint statement of the committee and were consistent with other assessments of that time expressing deep concern over the potential issues while stopping short of recommending major policy changes due to the uncertainties, and to a lack of good alternatives.}, }
@article {pmid20846898, year = {2010}, author = {Ahuja, I and de Vos, RC and Bones, AM and Hall, RD}, title = {Plant molecular stress responses face climate change.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {664-674}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2010.08.002}, pmid = {20846898}, issn = {1878-4372}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Gene Expression Profiling ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plants/genetics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Environmental stress factors such as drought, elevated temperature, salinity and rising CO2 affect plant growth and pose a growing threat to sustainable agriculture. This has become a hot issue due to concerns about the effects of climate change on plant resources, biodiversity and global food security. Plant adaptation to stress involves key changes in the '-omic' architecture. Here, we present an overview of the physiological and molecular programs in stress adaptation focusing on how genes, proteins and metabolites change after individual and multiple environmental stresses. We address the role which '-omics' research, coupled to systems biology approaches, can play in future research on plants seemingly unable to adapt as well as those which can tolerate climatic change.}, }
@article {pmid20843848, year = {2011}, author = {Møller, AP and Saino, N and Adamík, P and Ambrosini, R and Antonov, A and Campobello, D and Stokke, BG and Fossøy, F and Lehikoinen, E and Martin-Vivaldi, M and Moksnes, A and Moskat, C and Røskaft, E and Rubolini, D and Schulze-Hagen, K and Soler, M and Shykoff, JA}, title = {Rapid change in host use of the common cuckoo Cuculus canorus linked to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {278}, number = {1706}, pages = {733-738}, pmid = {20843848}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*parasitology/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Nesting Behavior/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Parasites require synchrony with their hosts so if host timing changes with climate change, some parasites may decline and eventually go extinct. Residents and short-distance migrant hosts of the brood parasitic common cuckoo, Cuculus canorus, have advanced their phenology in response to climate change more than long-distance migrants, including the cuckoo itself. Because different parts of Europe show different degrees of climate change, we predicted that use of residents or short-distance migrants as hosts should have declined in areas with greater increase in spring temperature. Comparing relative frequency of parasitism of the two host categories in 23 European countries before and after 1990, when spring temperatures in many areas had started to increase, we found that relative parasitism of residents and short-distance migrants decreased. This change in host use was positively related to increase in spring temperature, consistent with the prediction that relative change in phenology for different migrant classes drives host-use patterns. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that climate change affects the relative abundance of different host races of the common cuckoo.}, }
@article {pmid20841398, year = {2010}, author = {Watson, R}, title = {Health budgets would benefit from ambitious climate change goals.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {341}, number = {}, pages = {c5018}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.c5018}, pmid = {20841398}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Budgets ; European Union ; Greenhouse Effect/*economics/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid20840607, year = {2011}, author = {Barbraud, C and Rivalan, P and Inchausti, P and Nevoux, M and Rolland, V and Weimerskirch, H}, title = {Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {80}, number = {1}, pages = {89-100}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01752.x}, pmid = {20840607}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Charadriiformes/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models.}, }
@article {pmid20839583, year = {2010}, author = {Rao, M}, title = {What's good for the climate is good for health: the role of doctors in addressing climate change.}, journal = {The National medical journal of India}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, pmid = {20839583}, issn = {0970-258X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid20838179, year = {2010}, author = {Sayre, L and Rhazi, N and Carpenter, H and Hughes, NL}, title = {Climate change and human health: the role of nurses in confronting the issue.}, journal = {Nursing administration quarterly}, volume = {34}, number = {4}, pages = {334-342}, doi = {10.1097/NAQ.0b013e3181f60df9}, pmid = {20838179}, issn = {1550-5103}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; Environmental Health/*methods ; *Global Health ; Green Chemistry Technology ; Health Promotion/*methods ; Health Status ; Humans ; Medical Waste Disposal ; *Nurse's Role ; Public Health/*methods ; Public Health Nursing ; Water Pollution, Chemical ; }, abstract = {Climate change will impact human health in various ways as the ecology of our planet changes. Environmental changes such as increased heat waves, sea-level rise, and increased drought around the globe will aggravate already-existing health problems, increase the onset of new health problems, and, in some cases, cause premature death. Catastrophic events associated with these environmental changes, such as floods, and increases in hospital and routine clinic visits will have nurses on the front lines tending to those in need. Climate change needs to be reframed as a public health issue, and the importance of nurses to be educated and engaged cannot be overstated. Nurses can be instrumental in communications with patients and families, working with their hospitals and health systems to reduce emissions and influencing the adoption of strategies to better prepare our health care facilities and our communities for the health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20836465, year = {2010}, author = {Adams, RA}, title = {Bat reproduction declines when conditions mimic climate change projections for western North America.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {8}, pages = {2437-2445}, doi = {10.1890/09-0091.1}, pmid = {20836465}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Chiroptera/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Hot Temperature ; North America ; Population Dynamics ; Pregnancy ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change models predict that much of western North America is becoming significantly warmer and drier, resulting in overall reductions in availability of water for ecosystems. Herein, I demonstrate that significant declines in the reproductive success of female insectivorous bats occur in years when annual environmental conditions mimic the long-term predictions of regional climate change models. Using a data set gathered on bat populations from 1996 through 2008 along the Front Range of Colorado, I compare trends in population numbers and reproductive outcomes of six species of vespertilionid bats with data on mean annual high temperature, precipitation, snow pack, and stream discharge rates. I show that levels of precipitation and flow rates of small streams near maternity colonies is fundamentally tied to successful reproduction in female bats, particularly during the lactation phase. Across years that experienced greater than average mean temperatures with less than average precipitation and stream flow, bat populations responded by slight to profound reductions in reproductive output depending on the severity of drought conditions. In particular, reproductive outputs showed profound declines (32-51%) when discharge rates of the largest stream in the field area dropped below 7 m3/s, indicating a threshold response. Such sensitivity to environmental change portends severe impacts to regional bat populations if current scenarios for climate change in western North America are accurate. In addition, bats act as early-warning indicators of large-scale ecological effects resulting from further regional warming and drying trends currently at play in western North America.}, }
@article {pmid20829782, year = {2010}, author = {Kirkbride, MP}, title = {Climate change: A glacial test of timing.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {467}, number = {7312}, pages = {160-161}, pmid = {20829782}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid20829483, year = {2010}, author = {Davis, SJ and Caldeira, K and Matthews, HD}, title = {Future CO2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {329}, number = {5997}, pages = {1330-1333}, doi = {10.1126/science.1188566}, pmid = {20829483}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide-emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower- and upper-bounding scenarios) gigatonnes of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3 degrees C (1.1 degrees to 1.4 degrees C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO2-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives.}, }
@article {pmid20829473, year = {2010}, author = {Hoffert, MI}, title = {Climate change. Farewell to fossil fuels?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {329}, number = {5997}, pages = {1292-1294}, doi = {10.1126/science.1195449}, pmid = {20829473}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20825589, year = {2010}, author = {Yan, S and Wu, G}, title = {Trends in global warming and evolution of nucleoproteins from influenza A viruses since 1918.}, journal = {Transboundary and emerging diseases}, volume = {57}, number = {6}, pages = {404-413}, doi = {10.1111/j.1865-1682.2010.01164.x}, pmid = {20825589}, issn = {1865-1682}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; *Global Warming ; Influenza A virus/*genetics ; Nucleoproteins/*genetics ; RNA, Viral/genetics ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Global warming affects not only the environment where we live, but also all living species to different degree, including influenza A virus. We recently conducted several studies on the possible impact of global warming on the protein families of influenza A virus. More studies are needed in order to have a full picture of the impact of global warming on living organisms, especially its effect on viruses. In this study, we correlate trends in global warming with evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus and then analyse the trends with respect to northern/southern hemispheres, virus subtypes and sampling species. The results suggest that global warming may have an impact on the evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus.}, }
@article {pmid20822067, year = {2010}, author = {Sipkoff, M}, title = {Health plans prepare to meet challenges of climate change.}, journal = {Managed care (Langhorne, Pa.)}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {27-29}, pmid = {20822067}, issn = {1062-3388}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; Humans ; *Managed Care Programs ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid20821713, year = {2010}, author = {Cairns, J}, title = {Incorporating environmental variability from rapid climate change into ecotoxicology tests.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {502-503}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.80}, pmid = {20821713}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; *Climate Change ; Ecotoxicology/*methods ; *Environment ; Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid20821685, year = {2010}, author = {Wenning, RJ and Finger, SE and Guilhermino, L and Helm, RC and Hooper, MJ and Landis, WG and Menzie, CA and Munns, WR and Römbke, J and Stahl, RG}, title = {Global climate change and environmental contaminants: a SETAC call for research.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {197-198}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.49}, pmid = {20821685}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Pollutants/adverse effects/*toxicity ; Humans ; *Internationality ; *Organizations, Nonprofit ; *Research ; }, }
@article {pmid20821683, year = {2010}, author = {Cairns, J}, title = {Irreversible climate change will also change environmental assessment and management.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {190-191}, doi = {10.1002/ieam.24}, pmid = {20821683}, issn = {1551-3793}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid20821579, year = {2010}, author = {Borgå, K and Saloranta, TM and Ruus, A}, title = {Simulating climate change-induced alterations in bioaccumulation of organic contaminants in an Arctic marine food web.}, journal = {Environmental toxicology and chemistry}, volume = {29}, number = {6}, pages = {1349-1357}, doi = {10.1002/etc.159}, pmid = {20821579}, issn = {1552-8618}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquatic Organisms/*metabolism ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollutants/chemistry/*metabolism ; *Food Chain ; Hexachlorocyclohexane/chemistry/*metabolism ; Models, Biological ; Polychlorinated Biphenyls/chemistry/*metabolism ; Temperature ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter environmental distribution of contaminants and their bioaccumulation due to changes in transport, partitioning, carbon pathways, and bioaccumulation process rates. Magnitude and direction of these changes and resulting overall bioaccumulation in food webs is currently not known. The present study investigates and quantifies the effect of climate change in terms of increased temperature and primary production (i.e., concentrations of particulate organic carbon, C(POC)), on bioaccumulation of organic contaminants in biota at various trophic levels. The present study covers only parts of the contaminant behavior that is influenced by climate change, and it was assumed that there were no changes in food web structure and in total air and water concentrations of organic contaminants. Therefore, other climate change-induced effects on net bioaccumulation, such as altered contaminant transport and food web structure, should be addressed in future studies. To determine the effect of climate change, a bioaccumulation model was used on the pelagic marine food web of the Arctic, where climate change is expected to occur fastest and to the largest magnitude. The effect of climate change on model parameters and processes, and on net bioaccumulation, were quantified for three modeling substances (gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane [HCH], polychlorinated biphenyl [PCB]-52, and PCB-153) for two possible climate scenarios. In conclusion, increased temperature and C(POC) reduced the overall bioaccumulation of organic contaminants in the Arctic marine food web, with the largest change being for PCB-52 and PCB-153. Reduced bioavailability, due to increased C(POC), was the most influential parameter for the less water soluble compounds. Increase in temperature resulted in an overall reduction in net bioaccumulation.}, }
@article {pmid20819816, year = {2010}, author = {Ibáñez, I and Primack, RB and Miller-Rushing, AJ and Ellwood, E and Higuchi, H and Lee, SD and Kobori, H and Silander, JA}, title = {Forecasting phenology under global warming.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1555}, pages = {3247-3260}, pmid = {20819816}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Japan ; *Models, Biological ; *Plant Development ; Plant Leaves/*physiology ; Regression Analysis ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953-2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.}, }
@article {pmid20819813, year = {2010}, author = {Davis, CC and Willis, CG and Primack, RB and Miller-Rushing, AJ}, title = {The importance of phylogeny to the study of phenological response to global climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1555}, pages = {3201-3213}, pmid = {20819813}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Flowers/*physiology ; Massachusetts ; Multivariate Analysis ; *Phylogeny ; *Plant Development ; Regression Analysis ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Climate change has resulted in major changes in the phenology--i.e. the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering and bird migration--of some species but not others. These differential responses have been shown to result in ecological mismatches that can have negative fitness consequences. However, the ways in which climate change has shaped changes in biodiversity within and across communities are not well understood. Here, we build on our previous results that established a link between plant species' phenological response to climate change and a phylogenetic bias in species' decline in the eastern United States. We extend a similar approach to plant and bird communities in the United States and the UK that further demonstrates that climate change has differentially impacted species based on their phylogenetic relatedness and shared phenological responses. In plants, phenological responses to climate change are often shared among closely related species (i.e. clades), even between geographically disjunct communities. And in some cases, this has resulted in a phylogenetically biased pattern of non-native species success. In birds, the pattern of decline is phylogenetically biased but is not solely explained by phenological response, which suggests that other traits may better explain this pattern. These results illustrate the ways in which phylogenetic thinking can aid in making generalizations of practical importance and enhance efforts to predict species' responses to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20819810, year = {2010}, author = {Singer, MC and Parmesan, C}, title = {Phenological asynchrony between herbivorous insects and their hosts: signal of climate change or pre-existing adaptive strategy?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1555}, pages = {3161-3176}, pmid = {20819810}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Lepidoptera/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Plant Development ; }, abstract = {Climate change alters phenological relations between interacting species. We might expect the historical baseline, or starting-point, for such effects to be precise synchrony between the season at which a consumer most requires food and the time when its resources are most available. We synthesize evidence that synchrony was not the historical condition in two insect-plant interactions involving Edith's checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha), the winter moth (Operophtera brumata) and their host plants. Initial observations of phenological mismatch in both systems were made prior to the onset of anthropogenically driven climate change. Neither species can detect the phenology of its host plants with precision. In both species, evolution of life history has involved compromise between maximizing fecundity and minimizing mortality, with the outcome being superficially maladaptive strategies in which many, or even most, individuals die of starvation through poor synchrony with their host plants. Where phenological asynchrony or mismatch with resources forms the starting point for effects of anthropogenic global warming, consumers are particularly vulnerable to impacts that exacerbate the mismatch. This vulnerability likely contributed to extinction of a well-studied metapopulation of Edith's checkerspot, and to the skewed geographical pattern of population extinctions underlying a northward and upward range shift in this species.}, }
@article {pmid20818456, year = {2010}, author = {Jump, AS and Cavin, L and Hunter, PD}, title = {Monitoring and managing responses to climate change at the retreating range edge of forest trees.}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {1791-1798}, doi = {10.1039/b923773a}, pmid = {20818456}, issn = {1464-0333}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Rising temperatures and increasing drought severity linked to global climate change are negatively impacting forest growth and function at the equatorial range edge of species distributions. Rapid dieback and range retractions are predicted to occur in many areas as temperatures continue to rise. Despite widespread negative impacts at the ecosystem level, equatorial range edges are not well studied, and their responses to climate change are poorly understood. Effective monitoring of tree responses to climate in these regions is of critical importance in order to predict and manage threats to populations. Remote sensing of impacts on forests can be combined with ground-based assessment of environmental and ecological changes to identify populations most at risk. Modelling may be useful as a 'first-filter' to identify populations of concern but, together with many remote sensing methods, often lacks adequate resolution for application at the range edge. A multidisciplinary approach, combining remote observation with targeted ground-based monitoring of local susceptible and resistant populations, is therefore required. Once at-risk regions have been identified, management can be adapted to reduce immediate risks in priority populations, and promote long-term adaptation to change. However, management to protect forest ecosystem function may be preferable where the maintenance of historical species assemblages is no longer viable.}, }
@article {pmid20818061, year = {2010}, author = {Nguyen, VT and Desramaut, N and Nguyen, TD}, title = {Optimal rainfall temporal patterns for urban drainage design in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {62}, number = {5}, pages = {1170-1176}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2010.295}, pmid = {20818061}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Cities ; *Climate Change ; *Drainage, Sanitary ; *Rain ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The main objective of the present study is to propose a method for estimating an optimal temporal storm pattern for urban drainage design in southern Quebec (Canada) in the context of climate change. Following a systematic evaluation of the performance of eight popular design storm models for different typical urban basins, it was found that the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) storm pattern and the Desbordes model (with a peak intensity duration of 30 min) were the most accurate for estimating runoff peak flows while the Watt model gave the best estimation of runoff volumes. Based on these analyses, an optimal storm pattern was derived for southern Quebec region. The proposed storm pattern was found to be the most suitable for urban drainage design in southern Quebec since it could provide accurate estimation of both runoff peak flow and volume. Finally, a spatial-temporal downscaling method, based on a combination of the spatial statistical downscaling SDSM technique and the temporal scaling General Extreme Value distribution, was used to assess the climate change impacts on the proposed optimal design storm pattern and the resulting runoff properties.}, }
@article {pmid20815990, year = {2010}, author = {Saniotis, A and Irvine, R}, title = {Climate change and the possible health effects on older Australians.}, journal = {Australian journal of primary health}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {217-220}, doi = {10.1071/PY10025}, pmid = {20815990}, issn = {1448-7527}, mesh = {Aged ; Australia ; Body Temperature Regulation/*drug effects ; Central Nervous System Agents/*pharmacology ; *Climate Change ; Geriatrics ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Middle Aged ; Rural Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an important issue for Australia. Climate change research forecasts that Australia will experience accelerated warming due to anthrogenic activities. Australia's aging society will face special challenges that demand current attention. This paper discusses two issues in relation to climate change and older Australians: first, pharmacology and autoregulation; and second, mental health among older Australians.}, }
@article {pmid20813925, year = {2010}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Panel faults IPCC leadership but praises its conclusions.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {329}, number = {5996}, pages = {1135}, doi = {10.1126/science.329.5996.1135}, pmid = {20813925}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20813388, year = {2010}, author = {Lau, CL and Smythe, LD and Craig, SB and Weinstein, P}, title = {Climate change, flooding, urbanisation and leptospirosis: fuelling the fire?.}, journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene}, volume = {104}, number = {10}, pages = {631-638}, doi = {10.1016/j.trstmh.2010.07.002}, pmid = {20813388}, issn = {1878-3503}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control ; Disease Vectors ; *Floods ; Humans ; Incidence ; *Leptospirosis/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Topography, Medical ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Flooding and heavy rainfall have been associated with numerous outbreaks of leptospirosis around the world. With global climate change, extreme weather events such as cyclones and floods are expected to occur with increasing frequency and greater intensity and may potentially result in an upsurge in the disease incidence as well as the magnitude of leptospirosis outbreaks. In this paper, we examine mechanisms by which climate change can affect various ecological factors that are likely to drive an increase in the overall incidence as well as the frequency of outbreaks of leptospirosis. We will discuss the geographical areas that are most likely to be at risk of an increase in leptospirosis disease burden owing to the coexistence of climate change hazard risk, environmental drivers of leptospirosis outbreaks, local socioeconomic circumstances, and social and demographic trends. To reduce this disease burden, enhanced surveillance and further research is required to understand the environmental drivers of infection, to build capacity in emergency response and to promote community adaptation to a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid20811450, year = {2010}, author = {Piao, S and Ciais, P and Huang, Y and Shen, Z and Peng, S and Li, J and Zhou, L and Liu, H and Ma, Y and Ding, Y and Friedlingstein, P and Liu, C and Tan, K and Yu, Y and Zhang, T and Fang, J}, title = {The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {467}, number = {7311}, pages = {43-51}, pmid = {20811450}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Agriculture ; China ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Economic Development ; Population Dynamics ; Water ; }, abstract = {China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.}, }
@article {pmid20810206, year = {2010}, author = {McDaniels, T and Wilmot, S and Healey, M and Hinch, S}, title = {Vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to climate change: a life cycle perspective using expert judgments.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {91}, number = {12}, pages = {2771-2780}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.08.004}, pmid = {20810206}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; British Columbia ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Expert Testimony ; *Life Cycle Stages ; Rivers ; Salmon/*growth &amp; development ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Fraser River sockeye salmon have been the basis for a major commercial fishery shared by Canada and the United States, and an important cultural foundation for many aboriginal groups; they are also of huge ecological significance throughout the Fraser Basin. The potential for altered aquatic habitat and temperature regimes due to climate change is an important concern for Fraser River sockeye salmon. This paper characterizes the vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to future climate change using an approach that is novel on three counts. First, previous efforts to assess the vulnerability of salmon to climate change have largely focused on only part of the life cycle, whereas we consider climate vulnerability at all stages in the life cycle. Second, we use the available scientific literature to provide a basis for structuring and eliciting judgments from fisheries science and management experts who research and manage these systems. Third, we consider prospects for mitigating the effects of climate change on sockeye salmon. Tests showed that participants' judgments differentiated in statistically significant ways among questions that varied in terms of life stages, spawning regions and climate scenarios. The consensus among participants was that Fraser River sockeye are most vulnerable to climate change during the egg and returning adult stages of the life cycle. A high temperature scenario was seen as imposing the greatest risk on sockeye stocks, particularly those that migrate to the upper reaches of the Fraser River system and spawn earlier in the summer. The inability to alter water temperature and the highly constrained nature of sockeye management, with competing gear types and sequential fisheries over a long distance, suggest the potential to mitigate adverse effects is limited. Fraser River sockeye already demonstrate a great deal of adaptive capacity in utilizing heterogeneous habitats in different river sub-basins. This adaptability points to the potential value of policies to make stocks more resilient to uncertain futures.}, }
@article {pmid20809802, year = {2011}, author = {Hill, JK and Griffiths, HM and Thomas, CD}, title = {Climate change and evolutionary adaptations at species' range margins.}, journal = {Annual review of entomology}, volume = {56}, number = {}, pages = {143-159}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-ento-120709-144746}, pmid = {20809802}, issn = {1545-4487}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Genetic Variation ; Insecta/*genetics ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {During recent climate warming, many insect species have shifted their ranges to higher latitudes and altitudes. These expansions mirror those that occurred after the Last Glacial Maximum when species expanded from their ice age refugia. Postglacial range expansions have resulted in clines in genetic diversity across present-day distributions, with a reduction in genetic diversity observed in a wide range of insect taxa as one moves from the historical distribution core to the current range margin. Evolutionary increases in dispersal at expanding range boundaries are commonly observed in virtually all insects that have been studied, suggesting a positive feedback between range expansion and the evolution of traits that accelerate range expansion. The ubiquity of this phenomenon suggests that it is likely to be an important determinant of range changes. A better understanding of the extent and speed of adaptation will be crucial to the responses of biodiversity and ecosystems to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20808665, year = {2010}, author = {Pandve, HT}, title = {Climate change and coastal mega cities of India.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {22-23}, pmid = {20808665}, issn = {1998-3670}, }
@article {pmid20808659, year = {2010}, author = {Kulkarni, G}, title = {Environmental concerns and climate change: Need for proactive participation.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, doi = {10.4103/0019-5278.64606}, pmid = {20808659}, issn = {1998-3670}, }
@article {pmid20808442, year = {2010}, author = {Milanovich, JR and Peterman, WE and Nibbelink, NP and Maerz, JC}, title = {Projected loss of a salamander diversity hotspot as a consequence of projected global climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {5}, number = {8}, pages = {e12189}, pmid = {20808442}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Theoretical ; Time Factors ; *Urodela ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Significant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms, so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation. Many plethodontid species in southern Appalachia exist in high elevation habitats that may be at or near their thermal maxima, and may also have limited dispersal abilities across warmer valley bottoms.<br><br>We used a maximum-entropy approach (program Maxent) to model the suitable climatic habitat of 41 plethodontid salamander species inhabiting the Appalachian Highlands region (33 individual species and eight species included within two species complexes). We evaluated the relative change in suitable climatic habitat for these species in the Appalachian Highlands from the current climate to the years 2020, 2050, and 2080, using both the HADCM3 and the CGCM3 models, each under low and high CO(2) scenarios, and using two-model thresholds levels (relative suitability thresholds for determining suitable/unsuitable range), for a total of 8 scenarios per species.<br><br>CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: While models differed slightly, every scenario projected significant declines in suitable habitat within the Appalachian Highlands as early as 2020. Species with more southern ranges and with smaller ranges had larger projected habitat loss. Despite significant differences in projected precipitation changes to the region, projections did not differ significantly between global circulation models. CO(2) emissions scenario and model threshold had small effects on projected habitat loss by 2020, but did not affect longer-term projections. Results of this study indicate that choice of model threshold and CO(2) emissions scenario affect short-term projected shifts in climatic distributions of species; however, these factors and choice of global circulation model have relatively small affects on what is significant projected loss of habitat for many salamander species that currently occupy the Appalachian Highlands.}, }
@article {pmid20807378, year = {2011}, author = {Dietz, S and Morton, A}, title = {Strategic appraisal of environmental risks: a contrast between the United Kingdom's Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change and its Committee on Radioactive Waste Management.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {129-142}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01484.x}, pmid = {20807378}, issn = {1539-6924}, abstract = {In this article, we compare two high-profile strategic policy reviews undertaken for the U.K. government on environmental risks: radioactive waste management and climate change. These reviews took very different forms, both in terms of analytic approach and deliberation strategy. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change was largely an exercise in expert modeling, building, within a cost-benefit framework, an argument for immediate reductions in carbon emissions. The Committee on Radioactive Waste Management, on the other hand, followed a much more explicitly deliberative and participative process, using multicriteria decision analysis to bring together scientific evidence and stakeholder and public values. In this article, we ask why the two reviews were different, and whether the differences are justified. We conclude that the differences were mainly due to political context, rather than the underpinning science, and as a consequence that, while in our view "fit for purpose," they would both have been stronger had they been less different. Stern's grappling with ethical issues could have been strengthened by a greater degree of public and stakeholder engagement, and the Committee on Radioactive Waste Management's handling of issues of uncertainty could have been strengthened by the explicitly probabilistic framework of Stern.}, }
@article {pmid20804137, year = {2010}, author = {Paerl, HW and Scott, JT}, title = {Throwing fuel on the fire: synergistic effects of excessive nitrogen inputs and global warming on harmful algal blooms.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {20}, pages = {7756-7758}, doi = {10.1021/es102665e}, pmid = {20804137}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Ecosystem ; *Eutrophication ; *Global Warming ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid20799684, year = {2010}, author = {Yang, X and Wang, X and Li, N}, title = {Combating climate change: what will China's forestry industry do?.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {340-343}, pmid = {20799684}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Forestry ; }, }
@article {pmid20739333, year = {2010}, author = {Page, A and Larsen, M}, title = {The empowerment of women and the population dynamics of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {32}, number = {4}, pages = {590-1; author reply 591}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdq066}, pmid = {20739333}, issn = {1741-3850}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Maternal-Child Health Centers ; *Population Dynamics ; *Power, Psychological ; Reproductive Health Services ; }, }
@article {pmid20738566, year = {2009}, author = {Weinstein, MP and Litvin, SY and Guida, VG and Chambers, RC}, title = {Is global climate change influencing the overwintering distribution of weakfish Cynoscion regalis?.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {75}, number = {3}, pages = {693-698}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2009.02304.x}, pmid = {20738566}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Body Size/physiology ; Demography ; *Global Warming ; Isotopes/analysis ; Perciformes/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Rivers/chemistry ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {The pattern of stable isotope signatures in a sub-sample of 67 juvenile weakfish Cynoscion regalis, captured at the mouth of the Christina River, 113 km upstream of the mouth of Delaware Bay (U.S.A) in the autumn of 2000, suggested that they resided at the location since recruitment. The possibility that young C. regalis departed from the generally characteristic life-history pattern of marine migrants at this latitude, i.e. emigrating offshore with the adults in autumn was bolstered by the collection of 69 individuals during the winters of 2000-2006 from the travelling screens of a power plant located at river kilometre 88 including an 118 mm total length juvenile captured in mid-February 2006.}, }
@article {pmid20738500, year = {2009}, author = {Jonsson, B and Jonsson, N}, title = {A review of the likely effects of climate change on anadromous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta, with particular reference to water temperature and flow.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {75}, number = {10}, pages = {2381-2447}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2009.02380.x}, pmid = {20738500}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate Change ; Reproduction ; Salmo salar/embryology/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; *Temperature ; Trout/embryology/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The present paper reviews the effects of water temperature and flow on migrations, embryonic development, hatching, emergence, growth and life-history traits in light of the ongoing climate change with emphasis on anadromous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta. The expected climate change in the Atlantic is for milder and wetter winters, with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow, decrease in ice-covered periods and frequent periods with extreme weather. Overall, thermal limits for salmonids are species specific. Scope for activity and growth and optimal temperature for growth increase with temperature to an optimal point before constrain by the oxygen content of the water. The optimal temperature for growth decreases with increasing fish size and varies little among populations within species, whereas the growth efficiency may be locally adapted to the temperature conditions of the home stream during the growth season. Indirectly, temperature influences age and size at smolting through its effect on growth. Time of spawning, egg hatching and emergence of the larvae vary with temperature and selective effects on time of first feeding. Traits such as age at first maturity, longevity and fecundity decrease with increasing temperature whilst egg size increases with temperature. Water flow influences the accessibility of rivers for returning adults and speed of both upstream and downstream migration. Extremes in water flow and temperature can decrease recruitment and survival. There is reason to expect a northward movement of the thermal niche of anadromous salmonids with decreased production and population extinction in the southern part of the distribution areas, migrations earlier in the season, later spawning, younger age at smolting and sexual maturity and increased disease susceptibility and mortality. Future research challenges are summarized at the end of the paper.}, }
@article {pmid20737808, year = {2010}, author = {Beaumier, MC and Ford, JD}, title = {Food insecurity among Inuit women exacerbated by socioeconomic stresses and climate change.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {101}, number = {3}, pages = {196-201}, pmid = {20737808}, issn = {0008-4263}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Adult ; Aged ; *Climate Change ; Cultural Characteristics ; Female ; Financing, Personal ; Focus Groups ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Hunger ; Interviews as Topic ; Inuit/*psychology ; Middle Aged ; Nunavut/ethnology ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Women's Health ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To identify and characterize the determinants of food insecurity among Inuit women.<br><br>METHODS: A community-based study in Igloolik, Nunavut, using semi-structured interviews (n = 36) and focus groups (n = 5) with Inuit women, and key informants interviews with health professionals (n = 13).<br><br>RESULTS: There is a high prevalence of food insecurity among Inuit females in Igloolik, with women in the study reporting skipping meals and reducing food intake on a regular basis. Food insecurity is largely transitory in nature and influenced by food affordability and budgeting; food knowledge; education and preferences; food quality and availability; absence of a full-time hunter in the household; cost of harvesting; poverty; and addiction. These determinants are operating in the context of changing livelihoods and climate-related stresses.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Inuit women's food insecurity in Igloolik is the outcome of multiple determinants operating at different spatial-temporal scales. Climate change and external socio-economic stresses are exacerbating difficulties in obtaining sufficient food. Coping strategies currently utilized to manage food insecurity are largely reactive and short-term in nature, and could increase food system vulnerability to future stresses. Intervention by local, territorial and federal governments is required to implement, coordinate and monitor strategies to enhance women's food security, strengthen the food system, and reduce vulnerability to future stressors.}, }
@article {pmid20729610, year = {2010}, author = {Nation, M and Collins, L and Nixon, C and Bess, K and Rogers, S and Williams, N and Juarez, P}, title = {A community-based participatory approach to youth development and school climate change: the alignment enhanced services project.}, journal = {Progress in community health partnerships : research, education, and action}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {197-205}, doi = {10.1353/cpr.2010.0003}, pmid = {20729610}, issn = {1557-0541}, support = {U49 CE001091/CE/NCIPC CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Child ; *Child Development ; Community Networks/*organization &amp; administration ; Community-Based Participatory Research ; Data Collection ; Humans ; Program Development ; *Schools ; *Social Environment ; Violence/prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: School-community partnerships offer an opportunity to promote positive youth development. However, there is a need for community-based participatory research (CBPR) models that leverage community and school resources to create environments that support youths' success.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: Describe the CBPR process used by Alignment Enhanced Services (AES) partners to develop and implement a strategy to promote a positive school climate, and to discuss factors that influence the AES process in the schools.<br><br>METHODS: A committee of school and community members developed the AES process, which included an environmental scan that solicited input from internal and external stake-holders on the schools' assets and needs related to youth development and school climate. AES coordinators, in consultation with school administrators, developed and implemented action plans that leveraged each school's existing strengths, while identifying and utilizing new resources to address systemic and individual needs.<br><br>LESSONS LEARNED: To date, the project has produced encouraging results; however, the AES process resulted in numerous challenges for the coordinators, schools, and community partners.<br><br>CONCLUSION: AES offers a method for engaging the stakeholders in addressing critical issues related to youth development and school climate.}, }
@article {pmid20729579, year = {2010}, author = {Fan, J and Tian, F and Yang, Y and Han, S and Qiu, G}, title = {Quantifying the magnitude of the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff decline in Mian River Basin, China.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {62}, number = {4}, pages = {783-791}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2010.294}, pmid = {20729579}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Male ; Models, Theoretical ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Rivers ; Water/*standards ; }, abstract = {Runoff in North China has been dramatically declining in recent decades. Although climate change and human activity have been recognized as the primary driving factors, the magnitude of impact of each of the above factors on runoff decline is still not entirely clear. In this study, Mian River Basin (a watershed that is heavily influenced by human activity) was used as a proxy to quantify the contributions of human and climate to runoff decline in North China. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to isolate the possible impacts of man and climate. SWAT simulations suggest that while climate change accounts for only 23.89% of total decline in mean annual runoff, human activity accounts for the larger 76.11% in the basin. The gap between the simulated and measured runoff has been widening since 1978, which can only be explained in terms of increasing human activity in the region. Furthermore, comparisons of similar annual precipitation in 3 dry-years and 3 wet-years representing hydrological processes in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were used to isolate the magnitude of runoff decline under similar annual precipitations. The results clearly show that human activity, rather than climate, is the main driving factor of runoff decline in the basin.}, }
@article {pmid20723054, year = {2010}, author = {Sork, VL and Davis, FW and Westfall, R and Flint, A and Ikegami, M and Wang, H and Grivet, D}, title = {Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {17}, pages = {3806-3823}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2010.04726.x}, pmid = {20723054}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {California ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; DNA, Plant/genetics ; Ecology/methods ; *Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; Genotype ; Geography ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Models, Biological ; Quercus/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.}, }
@article {pmid20717552, year = {2010}, author = {Muthers, S and Matzarakis, A and Koch, E}, title = {Climate change and mortality in Vienna--a human biometeorological analysis based on regional climate modeling.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {2965-2977}, pmid = {20717552}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Austria/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Forecasting ; Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The potential development of heat-related mortality in the 21th century for Vienna (Austria) was assessed by the use of two regional climate models based on the IPCC emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described with the human-biometeorological index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature). Based on the relation between heat stress and mortality in 1970-2007, we developed two approaches to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011-2040 no significant changes will take place compared to 1970-2000, but in the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129% until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET >or= 41 degrees C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notable. This encourages the requirement for additional adaptation measurements.}, }
@article {pmid20717546, year = {2010}, author = {Chang, HH and Zhou, J and Fuentes, M}, title = {Impact of climate change on ambient ozone level and mortality in southeastern United States.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {7}, number = {7}, pages = {2866-2880}, pmid = {20717546}, issn = {1660-4601}, support = {R01 ES014843/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; R01 ES014843-01A2/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; 5R01ES014843-02/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects/*analysis ; Bayes Theorem ; Climate Change/*mortality ; Humans ; *Models, Statistical ; Ozone/adverse effects/*analysis ; Southeastern United States ; Urban Population ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {There is a growing interest in quantifying the health impacts of climate change. This paper examines the risks of future ozone levels on non-accidental mortality across 19 urban communities in Southeastern United States. We present a modeling framework that integrates data from climate model outputs, historical meteorology and ozone observations, and a health surveillance database. We first modeled present-day relationships between observed maximum daily 8-hour average ozone concentrations and meteorology measured during the year 2000. Future ozone concentrations for the period 2041 to 2050 were then projected using calibrated climate model output data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Daily community-level mortality counts for the period 1987 to 2000 were obtained from the National Mortality, Morbidity and Air Pollution Study. Controlling for temperature, dew-point temperature, and seasonality, relative risks associated with short-term exposure to ambient ozone during the summer months were estimated using a multi-site time series design. We estimated an increase of 0.43 ppb (95% PI: 0.14-0.75) in average ozone concentration during the 2040's compared to 2000 due to climate change alone. This corresponds to a 0.01% increase in mortality rate and 45.2 (95% PI: 3.26-87.1) premature deaths in the study communities attributable to the increase in future ozone level.}, }
@article {pmid20715628, year = {2010}, author = {Ballard, G and Toniolo, V and Ainley, DG and Parkinson, CL and Arrigo, KR and Trathan, PN}, title = {Responding to climate change: Adélie Penguins confront astronomical and ocean boundaries.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {7}, pages = {2056-2069}, doi = {10.1890/09-0688.1}, pmid = {20715628}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Ice ; Oceans and Seas ; Seasons ; Spheniscidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Long-distance migration enables many organisms to take advantage of lucrative breeding and feeding opportunities during summer at high latitudes and then to move to lower, more temperate latitudes for the remainder of the year. The latitudinal range of the Adélie Penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) spans approximately 22 degrees. Penguins from northern colonies may not migrate, but due to the high latitude of Ross Island colonies, these penguins almost certainly undertake the longest migrations for the species. Previous work has suggested that Adélies require both pack ice and some ambient light at all times of year. Over a three-year period, which included winters of both extensive and reduced sea ice, we investigated characteristics of migratory routes and wintering locations of Adélie Penguins from two colonies of very different size on Ross Island, Ross Sea, the southernmost colonies for any penguin. We acquired data from 3-16 geolocation sensor tags (GLS) affixed to penguins each year at both Cape Royds and Cape Crozier in 2003-2005. Migrations averaged 12760 km, with the longest being 17 600 km, and were in part facilitated by pack ice movement. Trip distances varied annually, but not by colony. Penguins rarely traveled north of the main sea-ice pack, and used areas with high sea-ice concentration, ranging from 75% to 85%, about 500 km inward from the ice edge. They also used locations where there was some twilight (2-7 h with sun < 6 degrees below the horizon). We report the present Adélie Penguin migration pattern and conjecture on how it probably has changed over the past approximately 12000 years, as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet withdrew southward across the Ross Sea, a situation that no other Adélie Penguin population has had to confront. As sea ice extent in the Ross Sea sector decreases in the near future, as predicted by climate models, we can expect further changes in the migration patterns of the Ross Sea penguins.}, }
@article {pmid20715613, year = {2010}, author = {Kreyling, J}, title = {Winter climate change: a critical factor for temperate vegetation performance.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {7}, pages = {1939-1948}, doi = {10.1890/09-1160.1}, pmid = {20715613}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Plant Development ; *Seasons ; Snow ; Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Winter ecological processes are important drivers of vegetation and ecosystem functioning in temperate ecosystems. There, winter conditions are subject to rapid climate change. The potential loss of a longer-lasting snow cover with implications to other plant-related climate parameters and overwintering strategies make the temperate zone particularly vulnerable to winter climate change. A formalized literature search in the ISI Web of Science shows that plant related research on the effects of winter climate change is generally underrepresented. Temperate regions in particular are rarely studied in this respect, although the few existing studies imply strong effects of winter climate change on species ranges, species compositions, phenology, or frost injury. The generally positive effect of warming on plant survival and production may be counteracted by effects such as an increased frost injury of roots and shoots, an increased insect pest risk, or a disrupted synchrony between plants and pollinators. Based on the literature study, gaps in current knowledge are discussed. Understanding the relative effects of interacting climate parameters, as well as a stronger consideration of shortterm events and variability of climatic conditions is urgent. With respect to plant response, it would be particularly worthwhile to account for hidden players such as pathogens, pollinators, herbivores, or fungal partners in mycorrhization.}, }
@article {pmid20713397, year = {2010}, author = {Gornall, J and Betts, R and Burke, E and Clark, R and Camp, J and Willett, K and Wiltshire, A}, title = {Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1554}, pages = {2973-2989}, pmid = {20713397}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods/trends ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plant Development ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO(2) rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified.}, }
@article {pmid20705842, year = {2010}, author = {Reich, PB}, title = {Climate Change. The carbon dioxide exchange.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {329}, number = {5993}, pages = {774-775}, doi = {10.1126/science.1194353}, pmid = {20705842}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Bacteria/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; Cell Respiration ; Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Statistical ; Mycorrhizae/*metabolism ; *Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves/metabolism ; Plants/*metabolism ; Soil Microbiology ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid20702026, year = {2010}, author = {Fuentes, MM and Cinner, JE}, title = {Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {91}, number = {12}, pages = {2511-2518}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.07.013}, pmid = {20702026}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Cyclonic Storms ; *Ecosystem ; Expert Testimony ; Hot Temperature ; *Nesting Behavior ; Silicon Dioxide ; *Turtles ; }, abstract = {Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern.}, }
@article {pmid20699290, year = {2011}, author = {Tabata, T and Hishinuma, T and Ihara, T and Genchi, Y}, title = {Life cycle assessment of integrated municipal solid waste management systems, taking account of climate change and landfill shortage trade-off problems.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {423-432}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X10379493}, pmid = {20699290}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollution/analysis/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/methods ; Refuse Disposal/economics/methods/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Waste Products/*analysis/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Steps taken to counter the climate change problem have a significant impact on the municipal solid waste management (MSW) sector, which must tackle regional environmental problems such as the shortage of sanitary landfills, especially in Japan. Moreover, greenhouse gas emissions and final disposal have a trade-off relationship. Therefore, alleviation of both these environmental problems is difficult, and Japanese local municipalities are anxious for action to solve these problems and reduce treatment costs. Although ambitious waste management measures have been enacted in many countries, they appear to lack a holistic view and do not adopt a life cycle approach. Therefore, it is important to reconstruct the MSW management system, taking into account environmental and economic aspects. In the present study, life cycle assessment and mathematical modelling were used to seek ways of redesigning the MSW management system in order to minimize environmental impacts and/or reduce treatment costs. One economic block was selected as the study area (Iwate Prefecture in Japan). The life cycle inventory and costs data for every MSW transportation and treatment process in this region were collected and processed. Then, taking account of geographic information, an optimal solution for the minimization of environmental impact or treatment costs was derived. To solve the trade-off problem, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to find optimal reduction targets for climate change and final disposal.}, }
@article {pmid20696940, year = {2010}, author = {Majda, AJ and Gershgorin, B}, title = {Quantifying uncertainty in climate change science through empirical information theory.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {34}, pages = {14958-14963}, pmid = {20696940}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Climate Change ; *Computer Simulation ; *Information Theory ; Models, Statistical ; Stochastic Processes ; }, abstract = {Quantifying the uncertainty for the present climate and the predictions of climate change in the suite of imperfect Atmosphere Ocean Science (AOS) computer models is a central issue in climate change science. Here, a systematic approach to these issues with firm mathematical underpinning is developed through empirical information theory. An information metric to quantify AOS model errors in the climate is proposed here which incorporates both coarse-grained mean model errors as well as covariance ratios in a transformation invariant fashion. The subtle behavior of model errors with this information metric is quantified in an instructive statistically exactly solvable test model with direct relevance to climate change science including the prototype behavior of tracer gases such as CO(2). Formulas for identifying the most sensitive climate change directions using statistics of the present climate or an AOS model approximation are developed here; these formulas just involve finding the eigenvector associated with the largest eigenvalue of a quadratic form computed through suitable unperturbed climate statistics. These climate change concepts are illustrated on a statistically exactly solvable one-dimensional stochastic model with relevance for low frequency variability of the atmosphere. Viable algorithms for implementation of these concepts are discussed throughout the paper.}, }
@article {pmid20694889, year = {2010}, author = {Trostle, J}, title = {Anthropology is missing: on the World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change.}, journal = {Medical anthropology}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {217-225}, doi = {10.1080/01459740.2010.490252}, pmid = {20694889}, issn = {1545-5882}, mesh = {*Anthropology ; *Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; Policy ; *United Nations ; }, abstract = {When the World Bank publishes a report on climate change, the world takes notice. What are its diagnoses and treatments, and how present is anthropology in this analysis? The 2010 World Development Report on climate change provides few new diagnostic tools and no clear Bank policy revisions. It often fails to harmonize neoliberal development rhetoric with new climate-change imperatives. It nods to the importance of social context and risk perception yet refers primarily to behavioral economics and psychological constructs. Although anthropologists are documenting the local effects and human responses to larger-scale, climate-driven processes, our work is absent in the report. To play a role at global scale we would do well to learn more about concepts like nonlinearity and emergence, systems analysis, modeling, and disease dynamics. Our adroitness in developing metaphors and methods for crossing scale will make our efforts more visible and applicable.}, }
@article {pmid20689745, year = {2010}, author = {Garcia-Solache, MA and Casadevall, A}, title = {Global warming will bring new fungal diseases for mammals.}, journal = {mBio}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {}, pmid = {20689745}, issn = {2150-7511}, abstract = {Fungi are major pathogens of plants, other fungi, rotifers, insects, and amphibians, but relatively few cause disease in mammals. Fungi became important human pathogens only in the late 20th century, primarily in hosts with impaired immunity as a consequence of medical interventions or HIV infection. The relatively high resistance of mammals has been attributed to a combination of a complex immune system and endothermy. Mammals maintain high body temperatures relative to environmental temperatures, creating a thermally restrictive ambient for the majority of fungi. According to this view, protection given by endothermy requires a temperature gradient between those of mammals and the environment. We hypothesize that global warming will increase the prevalence of fungal diseases in mammals by two mechanisms: (i) increasing the geographic range of currently pathogenic species and (ii) selecting for adaptive thermotolerance for species with significant pathogenic potential but currently not pathogenic by virtue of being restricted by mammalian temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid20688993, year = {2010}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. 'Arctic armageddon' needs more science, less hype.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {329}, number = {5992}, pages = {620-621}, doi = {10.1126/science.329.5992.620}, pmid = {20688993}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20687245, year = {2010}, author = {Patterson, BD}, title = {Climate change and faunal dynamics in the uttermost part of the earth.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {15}, pages = {3019-3021}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294x.2010.04735.x}, pmid = {20687245}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Genetics, Population ; Geography ; *Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; Sigmodontinae/classification/*genetics ; South America ; }, abstract = {To use the 'lessons of the Pleistocene' to forecast the biotic effects of climate change, we must parse the effects of history and ecology in the Quaternary record. The preponderance of Northern Hemisphere studies of biotic responses to climate change provides a limited set of players and environmental circumstances with which to decouple these drivers. In this issue Lessa et al. (2010) examine population structure in 14 species of mice distributed across Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego in southern South America. In the Southern Cone, glacial ice was alpine, not polar; major habitats were (and are) oriented N-S, not E-W; and habitable land area actually increased, not decreased, at the height of the last glacial maximum (LGM). Despite these differences, there is evidence for poleward demographic expansion in 10 of the 14 species, and phylogeographic breaks in these are likewise stepped by latitude (and presumably history) rather than by biome. Nevertheless, high latitude endemism and the antiquity of these lineages point to an extended presence in the region that very likely predates the Pleistocene.}, }
@article {pmid20684812, year = {2010}, author = {Wilson, N and Lush, D and Baker, MG}, title = {Meteorological and climate change themes at the 2010 International Conference on Emerging Infectious Diseases.}, journal = {Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin}, volume = {15}, number = {30}, pages = {}, pmid = {20684812}, issn = {1560-7917}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; Humans ; *Meteorological Concepts ; }, }
@article {pmid20680394, year = {2010}, author = {Wesche, SD and Chan, HM}, title = {Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {361-373}, pmid = {20680394}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Animals ; Animals, Wild ; Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; Diet ; Food Preferences ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; *Inuit/psychology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Nutritive Value ; }, abstract = {This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.}, }
@article {pmid20677016, year = {2010}, author = {Hu, J and Hu, H and Jiang, Z}, title = {The impacts of climate change on the wintering distribution of an endangered migratory bird.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {164}, number = {2}, pages = {555-565}, pmid = {20677016}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Geography ; Models, Biological ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {There is now ample evidence of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the distribution and abundance of species. The black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) is an endangered migratory species and endemic to East Asia. Using a maximum entropy approach, we predicted the potential wintering distribution for spoonbills and modeled the effects of future climate change. Elevation, human influence index and precipitation during the coldest quarter contributed most to model development. Five regions, including western Taiwan, scattered locations from eastern coastal to central mainland China, coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea, northeastern coastal areas of Vietnam and sites along the coast of Japan, were found to have a high probability of presence and showed good agreement with historical records. Assuming no limits to the spread of this species, the wintering range is predicted to increase somewhat under a changing climate. However, three currently highly suitable regions (northeastern Vietnam, Taiwan and coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea) may face strong reductions in range by 2080. We also found that the center of the predicted range of spoonbills will undergo a latitudinal shift northwards by as much as 240, 450, and 600 km by 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively. Our findings suggest that species distribution modeling can inform the current and future management of the black-faced spoonbill throughout Asia. It is clear that a strong international strategy is needed to conserve spoonbill populations under a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid20673285, year = {2010}, author = {Büntgen, U and Schweingruber, FH}, title = {Environmental change without climate change?.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {188}, number = {3}, pages = {646-651}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03342.x}, pmid = {20673285}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Altitude ; Climate ; Ecology/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; *Environment ; *Global Warming ; Juniperus/*growth &amp; development ; Plant Stems ; *Research Design ; Scandinavian and Nordic Countries ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid20668536, year = {2010}, author = {Côté, IM and Darling, ES}, title = {Rethinking ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e1000438}, pmid = {20668536}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid20667620, year = {2010}, author = {Mokany, K and Richardson, AJ and Poloczanska, ES and Ferrier, S and , }, title = {Uniting marine and terrestrial modelling of biodiversity under climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {25}, number = {10}, pages = {550-551}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2010.06.014}, pmid = {20667620}, issn = {0169-5347}, mesh = {Aquatic Organisms ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid20666925, year = {2010}, author = {Crabbe, MJ}, title = {Computational biology approaches to plant metabolism and photosynthesis: applications for corals in times of climate change and environmental stress.}, journal = {Journal of integrative plant biology}, volume = {52}, number = {8}, pages = {698-703}, doi = {10.1111/j.1744-7909.2010.00962.x}, pmid = {20666925}, issn = {1744-7909}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Computational Biology/*methods ; Photosynthesis/*physiology ; Plants/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Knowledge of factors that are important in reef resilience helps us to understand how reef ecosystems react following major anthropogenic and environmental disturbances. The symbiotic relationship between the photosynthetic zooxanthellae algal cells and corals is that the zooxanthellae provide the coral with carbon, while the coral provides protection and access to enough light for the zooxanthellae to photosynthesise. This article reviews some recent advances in computational biology relevant to photosynthetic organisms, including Beyesian approaches to kinetics, computational methods for flux balances in metabolic processes, and determination of clades of zooxanthallae. Application of these systems will be important in the conservation of coral reefs in times of climate change and environmental stress.}, }
@article {pmid20666254, year = {2010}, author = {Isaak, DJ and Luce, CH and Rieman, BE and Nagel, DE and Peterson, EE and Horan, DL and Parkes, S and Chandler, GL}, title = {Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {1350-1371}, doi = {10.1890/09-0822.1}, pmid = {20666254}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Fires ; Fresh Water ; *Salmon ; }, abstract = {Mountain streams provide important habitats for many species, but their faunas are especially vulnerable to climate change because of ectothermic physiologies and movements that are constrained to linear networks that are easily fragmented. Effectively conserving biodiversity in these systems requires accurate downscaling of climatic trends to local habitat conditions, but downscaling is difficult in complex terrains given diverse microclimates and mediation of stream heat budgets by local conditions. We compiled a stream temperature database (n = 780) for a 2500-km river network in central Idaho to assess possible trends in summer temperatures and thermal habitat for two native salmonid species from 1993 to 2006. New spatial statistical models that account for network topology were parameterized with these data and explained 93% and 86% of the variation in mean stream temperatures and maximas, respectively. During our study period, basin average mean stream temperatures increased by 0.38 degrees C (0.27 degrees C/decade), and maximas increased by 0.48 degrees C (0.34 degrees C/decade), primarily due to long-term (30-50 year) trends in air temperatures and stream flows. Radiation increases from wildfires accounted for 9% of basin-scale temperature increases, despite burning 14% of the basin. Within wildfire perimeters, however, stream temperature increases were 2-3 times greater than basin averages, and radiation gains accounted for 50% of warming. Thermal habitat for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was minimally affected by temperature increases, except for small shifts towards higher elevations. Bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), in contrast, were estimated to have lost 11-20% (8-16%/decade) of the headwater stream lengths that were cold enough for spawning and early juvenile rearing, with the largest losses occurring in the coldest habitats. Our results suggest that a warming climate has begun to affect thermal conditions in streams and that impacts to biota will be specific to both species and context. Where species are at risk, conservation actions should be guided based on considerations of restoration opportunity and future climatic effects. To refine predictions based on thermal effects, more work is needed to understand mechanisms associated with biological responses, climate effects on other habitat features, and habitat configurations that confer population resilience.}, }
@article {pmid20663227, year = {2010}, author = {Strand, LB and Tong, S and Aird, R and McRae, D}, title = {Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {441}, pmid = {20663227}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Administrative Personnel/*psychology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Health ; Focus Groups ; Humans ; Queensland ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland.<br><br>RESULTS: The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making.}, }
@article {pmid20660749, year = {2010}, author = {Feng, S and Krueger, AB and Oppenheimer, M}, title = {Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {32}, pages = {14257-14262}, pmid = {20660749}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {R24 HD047879/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Agriculture ; *Causality ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Emigration and Immigration/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Mexico ; United States ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to cause mass human migration, including immigration across international borders. This study quantitatively examines the linkages among variations in climate, agricultural yields, and people's migration responses by using an instrumental variables approach. Our method allows us to identify the relationship between crop yields and migration without explicitly controlling for all other confounding factors. Using state-level data from Mexico, we find a significant effect of climate-driven changes in crop yields on the rate of emigration to the United States. The estimated semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields is approximately -0.2, i.e., a 10% reduction in crop yields would lead an additional 2% of the population to emigrate. We then use the estimated semielasticity to explore the potential magnitude of future emigration. Depending on the warming scenarios used and adaptation levels assumed, with other factors held constant, by approximately the year 2080, climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15-65 y) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone. Although the results cannot be mechanically extrapolated to other areas and time periods, our findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming.}, }
@article {pmid20659253, year = {2010}, author = {Galbraith, D and Levy, PE and Sitch, S and Huntingford, C and Cox, P and Williams, M and Meir, P}, title = {Multiple mechanisms of Amazonian forest biomass losses in three dynamic global vegetation models under climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {187}, number = {3}, pages = {647-665}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03350.x}, pmid = {20659253}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {*Biomass ; Brazil ; Carbon/metabolism ; Cell Respiration ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Droughts ; Factor Analysis, Statistical ; Geography ; *Internationality ; *Models, Biological ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Rain ; Temperature ; Trees/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; }, abstract = {*The large-scale loss of Amazonian rainforest under some future climate scenarios has generally been considered to be driven by increased drying over Amazonia predicted by some general circulation models (GCMs). However, the importance of rainfall relative to other drivers has never been formally examined. *Here, we conducted factorial simulations to ascertain the contributions of four environmental drivers (precipitation, temperature, humidity and CO(2)) to simulated changes in Amazonian vegetation carbon (C(veg)), in three dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) forced with climate data based on HadCM3 for four SRES scenarios. *Increased temperature was found to be more important than precipitation reduction in causing losses of Amazonian C(veg) in two DGVMs (Hyland and TRIFFID), and as important as precipitation reduction in a third DGVM (LPJ). Increases in plant respiration, direct declines in photosynthesis and increases in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) all contributed to reduce C(veg) under high temperature, but the contribution of each mechanism varied greatly across models. Rising CO(2) mitigated much of the climate-driven biomass losses in the models. *Additional work is required to constrain model behaviour with experimental data under conditions of high temperature and drought. Current models may be overly sensitive to long-term elevated temperatures as they do not account for physiological acclimation.}, }
@article {pmid20658168, year = {2010}, author = {Habib, RR and Zein, KE and Ghanawi, J}, title = {Climate change and health research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {156-175}, pmid = {20658168}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/*etiology ; Disasters ; *Health Status ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Mediterranean Region/epidemiology ; *Public Health ; Research ; }, abstract = {Anthropologically induced climate change, caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is an emerging threat to human health. Consequences of climate change may affect the prevalence of various diseases and environmental and social maladies that affect population health. In this article, we reviewed the literature on climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This region already faces numerous humanitarian crises, from conflicts to natural hazards and a high burden of disease. Climate change is likely to aggravate these emergencies, necessitating a strengthening of health systems and capacities in the region. However, the existing literature on climate change from the region is sparse and informational gaps stand in the way of regional preparedness and adaptation. Further research is needed to assess climatic changes and related health impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Such knowledge will allow countries to identify preparedness vulnerabilities, evaluate capacity to adapt to climate change, and develop adaptation strategies to allay the health impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20655409, year = {2010}, author = {Place, SE and Mitloehner, FM}, title = {Invited review: Contemporary environmental issues: a review of the dairy industry's role in climate change and air quality and the potential of mitigation through improved production efficiency.}, journal = {Journal of dairy science}, volume = {93}, number = {8}, pages = {3407-3416}, doi = {10.3168/jds.2009-2719}, pmid = {20655409}, issn = {1525-3198}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis ; Animals ; Cattle ; *Climate Change ; Dairying/*methods ; Environmental Monitoring ; United States ; }, abstract = {Environmental concerns involving the dairy industry are shifting from an exclusive focus on water quality to encompass climate change and air quality issues. The dairy industry's climate change air emissions of concern are the greenhouse gases methane and nitrous oxide. With regard to air quality, the dairy industry's major emission contributions are particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, and ammonia. The emissions of these compounds from dairies can be variable because of a number of factors including weather conditions, animal type, management, and nutrition. To evaluate and compare emissions across the diverse operations that comprise the US dairy industry, emissions should be reported per unit of output (e.g., per kg of 3.5% fat-corrected milk). Accurately modeling emissions with models that can predict the complex bio-geochemical processes responsible for emissions is critical to assess current emissions inventories and develop mitigation strategies. Improving the dairy industry's production efficiency (e.g., improvements in management, nutrition, reproduction, and cow comfort) is an effective way to reduce emissions per unit of milk. With accurate process-based models, emissions reductions due to improved production efficiency could be reported per unit of milk and predicted on a farm-to-farm basis.}, }
@article {pmid20654630, year = {2010}, author = {Atkins, KE and Travis, JM}, title = {Local adaptation and the evolution of species' ranges under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of theoretical biology}, volume = {266}, number = {3}, pages = {449-457}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.07.014}, pmid = {20654630}, issn = {1095-8541}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is well documented. A well developed range of statistical methods currently exists that projects the possible future habitat of a species directly from the current climate and a species distribution. However, studies incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes remain limited. Here, we focus on the potential role that local adaptation to climate may play in driving the range dynamics of sessile organisms. Incorporating environmental adaptation into a stochastic simulation yields several new insights. Counter-intuitively, our simulation results suggest that species with broader ranges are not necessarily more robust to climate change. Instead, species with broader ranges can be more susceptible to extinction as locally adapted genotypes are often blocked from range shifting by the presence of cooler adapted genotypes that persist even when their optimum climate has left them behind. Interestingly, our results also suggest that it will not always be the cold-adapted phenotypes that drive polewards range expansion. Instead, range shifts may be driven by phenotypes conferring adaptation to conditions prevalent towards the centre of a species' equilibrium distribution. This may have important consequences for the conservation method termed predictive provenancing. These initial results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation in determining how species will respond to climate change and we argue that this is an area requiring urgent theoretical and empirical attention.}, }
@article {pmid20651679, year = {2010}, author = {Visser, ME}, title = {Climate change: Fatter marmots on the rise.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {466}, number = {7305}, pages = {445-447}, pmid = {20651679}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Body Weight/*physiology ; Colorado ; *Global Warming ; Hibernation/*physiology ; Marmota/*anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid20649942, year = {2010}, author = {Reynolds, TW and Bostrom, A and Read, D and Morgan, MG}, title = {Now what do people know about global climate change? Survey studies of educated laypeople.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {30}, number = {10}, pages = {1520-1538}, pmid = {20649942}, issn = {1539-6924}, support = {R24 HD042828/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R24 HD042828-10/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Culture ; *Educational Status ; Female ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; Male ; Ozone ; Pennsylvania ; Politics ; }, abstract = {In 1992, a mental-models-based survey in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, revealed that educated laypeople often conflated global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, and appeared relatively unaware of the role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in global warming. This study compares those survey results with 2009 data from a sample of similarly well-educated laypeople responding to the same survey instrument. Not surprisingly, following a decade of explosive attention to climate change in politics and in the mainstream media, survey respondents in 2009 showed higher awareness and comprehension of some climate change causes. Most notably, unlike those in 1992, 2009 respondents rarely mentioned ozone depletion as a cause of global warming. They were also far more likely to correctly volunteer energy use as a major cause of climate change; many in 2009 also cited natural processes and historical climatic cycles as key causes. When asked how to address the problem of climate change, while respondents in 1992 were unable to differentiate between general "good environmental practices" and actions specific to addressing climate change, respondents in 2009 have begun to appreciate the differences. Despite this, many individuals in 2009 still had incorrect beliefs about climate change, and still did not appear to fully appreciate key facts such as that global warming is primarily due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the single most important source of this carbon dioxide is the combustion of fossil fuels.}, }
@article {pmid20648808, year = {2010}, author = {Ozturk, M and Gucel, S and Kucuk, M and Sakcali, S}, title = {Forest diversity, climate change and forest fires in the Mediterranean region of Turkey.}, journal = {Journal of environmental biology}, volume = {31}, number = {1-2}, pages = {1-9}, pmid = {20648808}, issn = {0254-8704}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Fires ; Mediterranean Region ; Time Factors ; *Trees ; Turkey ; }, abstract = {This paper reviews the forest resources in Turkey in the light of published literature and summarises extensive fieldwork undertaken in the Mediterranean phytogeograhical region of Turkey. The issues of landscape change and the associated drivers are addressed and the threats to the forest diversity are considered. It notes the impacts of climate change and forest fires and attemepts have been made to put forth future options for sustainable forest development.}, }
@article {pmid20644690, year = {2010}, author = {Akerlof, K and Debono, R and Berry, P and Leiserowitz, A and Roser-Renouf, C and Clarke, KL and Rogaeva, A and Nisbet, MC and Weathers, MR and Maibach, EW}, title = {Public perceptions of climate change as a human health risk: surveys of the United States, Canada and Malta.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {7}, number = {6}, pages = {2559-2606}, pmid = {20644690}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Awareness ; Canada ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; Internationality ; Internet ; Knowledge ; Malta ; Public Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Public Opinion ; Risk Factors ; *Social Perception ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {We used data from nationally representative surveys conducted in the United States, Canada and Malta between 2008 and 2009 to answer three questions: Does the public believe that climate change poses human health risks, and if so, are they seen as current or future risks? Whose health does the public think will be harmed? In what specific ways does the public believe climate change will harm human health? When asked directly about the potential impacts of climate change on health and well-being, a majority of people in all three nations said that it poses significant risks; moreover, about one third of Americans, one half of Canadians, and two-thirds of Maltese said that people are already being harmed. About a third or more of people in the United States and Canada saw themselves (United States, 32%; Canada, 67%), their family (United States, 35%; Canada, 46%), and people in their community (United States, 39%; Canada, 76%) as being vulnerable to at least moderate harm from climate change. About one third of Maltese (31%) said they were most concerned about the risk to themselves and their families. Many Canadians said that the elderly (45%) and children (33%) are at heightened risk of harm, while Americans were more likely to see people in developing countries as being at risk than people in their own nation. When prompted, large numbers of Canadians and Maltese said that climate change can cause respiratory problems (78-91%), heat-related problems (75-84%), cancer (61-90%), and infectious diseases (49-62%). Canadians also named sunburn (79%) and injuries from extreme weather events (73%), and Maltese cited allergies (84%). However, climate change appears to lack salience as a health issue in all three countries: relatively few people answered open-ended questions in a manner that indicated clear top-of-mind associations between climate change and human health risks. We recommend mounting public health communication initiatives that increase the salience of the human health consequences associated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20644646, year = {2010}, author = {Anderson, MG and Ferree, CE}, title = {Conserving the stage: climate change and the geophysical underpinnings of species diversity.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {5}, number = {7}, pages = {e11554}, pmid = {20644646}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Geological Phenomena ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Conservationists have proposed methods for adapting to climate change that assume species distributions are primarily explained by climate variables. The key idea is to use the understanding of species-climate relationships to map corridors and to identify regions of faunal stability or high species turnover. An alternative approach is to adopt an evolutionary timescale and ask ultimately what factors control total diversity, so that over the long run the major drivers of total species richness can be protected. Within a single climatic region, the temperate area encompassing all of the Northeastern U.S. and Maritime Canada, we hypothesized that geologic factors may take precedence over climate in explaining diversity patterns. If geophysical diversity does drive regional diversity, then conserving geophysical settings may offer an approach to conservation that protects diversity under both current and future climates. Here we tested how well geology predicts the species diversity of 14 US states and three Canadian provinces, using a comprehensive new spatial dataset. Results of linear regressions of species diversity on all possible combinations of 23 geophysical and climatic variables indicated that four geophysical factors; the number of geological classes, latitude, elevation range and the amount of calcareous bedrock, predicted species diversity with certainty (adj. R(2) = 0.94). To confirm the species-geology relationships we ran an independent test using 18,700 location points for 885 rare species and found that 40% of the species were restricted to a single geology. Moreover, each geology class supported 5-95 endemic species and chi-square tests confirmed that calcareous bedrock and extreme elevations had significantly more rare species than expected by chance (P<0.0001), strongly corroborating the regression model. Our results suggest that protecting geophysical settings will conserve the stage for current and future biodiversity and may be a robust alternative to species-level predictions.}, }
@article {pmid20640805, year = {2009}, author = {Yan, SM and Wu, G}, title = {Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.}, journal = {Interdisciplinary sciences, computational life sciences}, volume = {1}, number = {4}, pages = {272-279}, pmid = {20640805}, issn = {1913-2751}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Amino Acids/chemistry ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Birds ; Computer Simulation ; DNA, Viral/genetics ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Influenza A virus/*genetics ; Influenza in Birds/genetics ; Influenza, Human/*epidemiology/*genetics ; Swine ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.}, }
@article {pmid20637171, year = {2010}, author = {Berry, HL and Butler, JR and Burgess, CP and King, UG and Tsey, K and Cadet-James, YL and Rigby, CW and Raphael, B}, title = {Mind, body, spirit: co-benefits for mental health from climate change adaptation and caring for country in remote Aboriginal Australian communities.}, journal = {New South Wales public health bulletin}, volume = {21}, number = {5-6}, pages = {139-145}, doi = {10.1071/NB10030}, pmid = {20637171}, issn = {1839-4345}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Services, Indigenous ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Mind-Body Therapies ; *Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ; Residence Characteristics ; }, abstract = {The evident and unresolved health disparity between Aboriginal and other Australians is testament to a history of systematic disenfranchisement. Stigma, lack of appropriate services and the expense of delivering services in remote settings make it impossible to adequately address mental health needs, including suicide, solely using a mainstream medical approach. Nor do mainstream approaches accommodate the relationship between Aboriginal health and connectedness to land, whether traditional or new land, remote or metropolitan. This review describes how caring-for-country projects on traditional lands in remote locations may provide a novel way to achieve the linked goals of climate change adaptation with co-benefits for social and emotional wellbeing.}, }
@article {pmid20637169, year = {2010}, author = {Friel, S}, title = {Climate change, food insecurity and chronic diseases: sustainable and healthy policy opportunities for Australia.}, journal = {New South Wales public health bulletin}, volume = {21}, number = {5-6}, pages = {129-133}, doi = {10.1071/NB10019}, pmid = {20637169}, issn = {1839-4345}, mesh = {Australia ; *Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply/standards ; Health Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Food provides a link between the population health and climate stabilisation agendas. This paper argues that a broader view of food security for the 21st century in Australia and internationally is needed--one that judges the food system for its nutritional quality, social value and impact on the environment. If done well, climate change mitigation and adaptation policies provide ways to achieve this. This paper focuses on mitigation strategies, and describes how the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector through a reduction in consumption of animal source foods can improve food security and reduce the levels of chronic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases and some cancers.}, }
@article {pmid20637167, year = {2010}, author = {Dennekamp, M and Carey, M}, title = {Air quality and chronic disease: why action on climate change is also good for health.}, journal = {New South Wales public health bulletin}, volume = {21}, number = {5-6}, pages = {115-121}, doi = {10.1071/NB10026}, pmid = {20637167}, issn = {1839-4345}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Australia ; *Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {There is increasing evidence that air pollution contributes to the burden of chronic disease and premature mortality, particularly from cardiovascular and respiratory causes. Action now urgently required to mitigate climate change has the potential co-benefit of improving air quality and reducing the chronic disease burden. Fossil fuel combustion, primarily from motor vehicles and energy generation, is a major contributor to anthropogenic climate change and air pollution-related health conditions. Action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by improving energy efficiency, departing from carbon-intensive energy generation, facilitating mass transit and active transport options, also has the potential for significant public health benefits.}, }
@article {pmid20637166, year = {2010}, author = {Capon, AG and Rissel, CE}, title = {Chronic disease and climate change: understanding co-benefits and their policy implications.}, journal = {New South Wales public health bulletin}, volume = {21}, number = {5-6}, pages = {109-113}, doi = {10.1071/NB10032}, pmid = {20637166}, issn = {1839-4345}, mesh = {*Chronic Disease ; *Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Public Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {Chronic disease and climate change are major public policy challenges facing governments around the world. An improved understanding of the relationship between chronic disease and climate change should enable improved policy formulation to support both human health and the health of the planet. Chronic disease and climate change are both unintended consequences of our way of life, and are attributable in part to the ready availability of inexpensive fossil fuel energy. There are co-benefits for health from actions to address climate change. For example, substituting physical activity and a vegetable-rich diet for motor vehicle transport and a meat-rich diet is both good for health and good for the planet. We should encourage ways of living that use less carbon as these can be healthy ways of living, for both individuals and society. Quantitative modelling of co-benefits should inform policy responses.}, }
@article {pmid20632538, year = {2010}, author = {Parham, PE and Michael, E}, title = {Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.}, journal = {Advances in experimental medicine and biology}, volume = {673}, number = {}, pages = {184-199}, doi = {10.1007/978-1-4419-6064-1_13}, pmid = {20632538}, issn = {0065-2598}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Culicidae/parasitology ; Environment ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/parasitology ; Malaria/parasitology/*transmission ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Stochastic Processes ; Tanzania ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here offers a theoretical framework upon which this future research may be developed.}, }
@article {pmid20631804, year = {2010}, author = {Vincent, WF}, title = {Microbial ecosystem responses to rapid climate change in the Arctic.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {1087-1090}, doi = {10.1038/ismej.2010.108}, pmid = {20631804}, issn = {1751-7370}, mesh = {Archaea/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Arctic Regions ; Bacteria/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; *Biota ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Microbiology ; Eukaryota/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid20627901, year = {2010}, author = {Song, L and Chow, WS and Sun, L and Li, C and Peng, C}, title = {Acclimation of photosystem II to high temperature in two Wedelia species from different geographical origins: implications for biological invasions upon global warming.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {61}, number = {14}, pages = {4087-4096}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erq220}, pmid = {20627901}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Biomass ; China ; Chlorophyll/metabolism ; Fluorescence ; *Global Warming ; *Hot Temperature ; Light ; Light-Harvesting Protein Complexes/metabolism ; Photochemical Processes ; Photosynthesis ; Photosystem II Protein Complex/*metabolism ; Temperature ; Wedelia/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; }, abstract = {More intense, more frequent, and longer heat waves are expected in the future due to global warming, which could have dramatic ecological impacts. However, few studies have involved invasive species. The aims of this study were to examine the effect of extreme heating (40/35 degrees C for 30 d) on the growth and photosynthesis of an alien invasive species Wedelia trilobata and its indigenous congener (Wedelia chinensis) in South China, and to determine the development of this invasive species and its potential adaptive mechanism. In comparison with W. chinensis, W. trilobata suffered less inhibition of the relative growth rate (RGR) and biomass production due to high temperature, which was consistent with the changes of photosystem II (PSII) activity and net photosynthetic rate (P(n)). High temperature caused a partial inhibition of PSII, but the adverse effect was more severe in W. chinensis. Measurement of the minimum fluorescence (F(o)) versus temperature curves showed that W. trilobata had a higher inflexion temperature of F(o) (T(i)), indicating greater thermostability of the photosynthetic apparatus. Moreover, comparisons of absorbed light energy partitioning revealed that W. trilobata increased xanthophyll-dependent thermal dissipation (Phi(NPQ)) under high temperature, while retaining the higher fraction of absorbed light allocated to photochemistry (Phi(PSII)) relative to W. chinensis. The results suggest that the invasive W. trilobata has a high thermostability of its photosynthetic apparatus and an effective regulating mechanism in energy partitioning of PSII complexes to minimize potential damage and to retain greater capability for carbon assimilation. These factors confer greater heat stress tolerance compared with the native species. Therefore, the invasive W. trilobata may become more aggressive with the increasingly extreme heat climates.}, }
@article {pmid20627141, year = {2010}, author = {Yang, GJ and Utzinger, J and Lv, S and Qian, YJ and Li, SZ and Wang, Q and Bergquist, R and Vounatsou, P and Li, W and Yang, K and Zhou, XN}, title = {The Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)) target diseases in face of climate change.}, journal = {Advances in parasitology}, volume = {73}, number = {}, pages = {101-135}, doi = {10.1016/S0065-308X(10)73005-0}, pmid = {20627141}, issn = {2163-6079}, mesh = {Animals ; Asia/epidemiology ; Biostatistics ; China ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Schistosomiasis/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Strongylida Infections/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology/*transmission ; }, abstract = {Climate change-according to conventional wisdom-will result in an expansion of tropical parasitic diseases in terms of latitude and altitude, with vector-borne diseases particularly prone to change. However, although a significant rise in temperature occurred over the past century, there is little empirical evidence whether climate change has indeed favoured infectious diseases. This might be explained by the complex relationship between climate change and the frequency and the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, which is characterised by nonlinear associations and countless other complex factors governing the distribution of infectious diseases. Here, we explore whether and how climate change might impact on diseases targeted by the Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)). We start our review with a short summary of the current evidence-base how climate change affects the distribution of infectious diseases. Next, we introduce biology-based models for predicting the distribution of infectious diseases in a future, warmer world. Two case studies are presented: the classical RNAS(+) disease schistosomiasis and an emerging disease, angiostrongyliasis, focussing on their occurrences in the People's Republic of China. Strengths and limitations of current models for predicting the impact of climate change on infectious diseases are discussed, and we propose model extensions to include social and ecological factors. Finally, we recommend that mitigation and adaptation strategies to diminish potential negative effects of climate change need to be developed in concert with key stakeholders so that surveillance and early-warning systems can be strengthened and the most vulnerable population groups protected.}, }
@article {pmid20623021, year = {2010}, author = {Tagaris, E and Liao, KJ and DeLucia, AJ and Deck, L and Amar, P and Russell, AG}, title = {Sensitivity of air pollution-induced premature mortality to precursor emissions under the influence of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {2222-2237}, pmid = {20623021}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*toxicity ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Mortality ; Particle Size ; }, abstract = {The relative contributions of PM(2.5) and ozone precursor emissions to air pollution-related premature mortality modulated by climate change are estimated for the U.S. using sensitivities of air pollutants to precursor emissions and health outcomes for 2001 and 2050. Result suggests that states with high emission rates and significant premature mortality increases induced by PM(2.5) will substantially benefit in the future from SO(2), anthropogenic NO(X) and NH(3) emissions reductions while states with premature mortality increases induced by O(3) will benefit mainly from anthropogenic NO(X) emissions reduction. Much of the increase in premature mortality expected from climate change-induced pollutant increases can be offset by targeting a specific precursor emission in most states based on the modeling approach followed here.}, }
@article {pmid20618930, year = {2010}, author = {Paaijmans, KP and Imbahale, SS and Thomas, MB and Takken, W}, title = {Relevant microclimate for determining the development rate of malaria mosquitoes and possible implications of climate change.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {196}, pmid = {20618930}, issn = {1475-2875}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles/*growth &amp; development ; Climate Change ; Insect Vectors/*growth &amp; development ; Kenya ; Larva/growth &amp; development ; Malaria/parasitology ; *Microclimate ; Models, Biological ; Population Density ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The relationship between mosquito development and temperature is one of the keys to understanding the current and future dynamics and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Many process-based models use mean air temperature to estimate larval development times, and hence adult vector densities and/or malaria risk.<br><br>METHODS: Water temperatures in three different-sized water pools, as well as the adjacent air temperature in lowland and highland sites in western Kenya were monitored. Both air and water temperatures were fed into a widely-applied temperature-dependent development model for Anopheles gambiae immatures, and subsequently their impact on predicted vector abundance was assessed.<br><br>RESULTS: Mean water temperature in typical mosquito breeding sites was 4-6 degrees C higher than the mean temperature of the adjacent air, resulting in larval development rates, and hence population growth rates, that are much higher than predicted based on air temperature. On the other hand, due to the non-linearities in the relationship between temperature and larval development rate, together with a marginal buffering in the increase in water temperature compared with air temperature, the relative increases in larval development rates predicted due to climate change are substantially less.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Existing models will tend to underestimate mosquito population growth under current conditions, and may overestimate relative increases in population growth under future climate change. These results highlight the need for better integration of biological and environmental information at the scale relevant to mosquito biology.}, }
@article {pmid20618900, year = {2010}, author = {Lessa, EP and D'Elía, G and Pardiñas, UF}, title = {Genetic footprints of late Quaternary climate change in the diversity of Patagonian-Fueguian rodents.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {15}, pages = {3031-3037}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2010.04734.x}, pmid = {20618900}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Genetics, Population ; Geography ; *Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Sigmodontinae/classification/*genetics ; South America ; }, abstract = {Species are impacted by climate change at both ecological and evolutionary time scales. Studies in northern continents have provided abundant evidence of dramatic shifts in distributions of species subsequent to the last glacial maximum (LGM), particularly at high latitudes. However, little is known about the history of southern continents, especially at high latitudes. South America is the only continent, other than Antarctica, that extends beyond 40 degrees S. Genetic studies of a few Patagonian species have provided seemingly conflicting results, indicating either postglacial colonization from restricted glacial refugia or persistence through glacial cycles and in situ differentiation. Using mitochondrial DNA sequences of 14 species of sigmodontine rodents, a major faunal ensemble of Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego, we show that at least nine of these species bear genetic footprints of demographic expansion from single restricted sources. However, timing of demographic expansion precedes the LGM in most of these species. Four species are fragmented phylogeographically within the region. Our results indicate that (i) demographic instability in response to historical climate change has been widespread in the Patagonian-Fueguian region, and is generally more pronounced at high latitudes in both southern and northern continents; (ii) colonization from lower latitudes is an important component of current Patagonian-Fueguian diversity; but (iii) in situ differentiation has also contributed to species diversity.}, }
@article {pmid20617016, year = {2010}, author = {Ostry, A and Ogborn, M and Bassil, KL and Takaro, TK and Allen, DM}, title = {Climate change and health in british columbia: projected impacts and a proposed agenda for adaptation research and policy.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {1018-1035}, pmid = {20617016}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; British Columbia ; *Climate Change ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, abstract = {This is a case study describing how climate change may affect the health of British Columbians and to suggest a way forward to promote health and policy research, and adaptation to these changes. After reviewing the limited evidence of the impacts of climate change on human health we have developed five principles to guide the development of research and policy to better predict future impacts of climate change on health and to enhance adaptation to these change in BC. We suggest that, with some modification, these principles will be useful to policy makers in other jurisdictions.}, }
@article {pmid20616990, year = {2010}, author = {Tong, S and Mather, P and Fitzgerald, G and McRae, D and Verrall, K and Walker, D}, title = {Assessing the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {546-564}, pmid = {20616990}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Health ; }, abstract = {There is an urgent need to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. This paper aims to provide an overview of current research, to identify knowledge gaps, and to propose future research needs in this challenging area. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting and will, in the future, have more (mostly adverse) impacts on ecosystems. Ecosystem degradation, particularly the decline of the life support systems, will undoubtedly affect human health and wellbeing. Therefore, it is important to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change, and to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20616038, year = {2010}, author = {Bonebrake, TC and Mastrandrea, MD}, title = {Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {28}, pages = {12581-12586}, pmid = {20616038}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Geography ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.}, }
@article {pmid20609077, year = {2010}, author = {Bergmann, N and Winters, G and Rauch, G and Eizaguirre, C and Gu, J and Nelle, P and Fricke, B and Reusch, TB}, title = {Population-specificity of heat stress gene induction in northern and southern eelgrass Zostera marina populations under simulated global warming.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {14}, pages = {2870-2883}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2010.04731.x}, pmid = {20609077}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Denmark ; Ecosystem ; Gene Expression Profiling ; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; Genotype ; *Global Warming ; *Heat-Shock Response ; Hot Temperature ; Italy ; Phenotype ; RNA, Plant/genetics ; Zosteraceae/*genetics/physiology ; }, abstract = {Summer heat waves have already resulted in mortality of coastal communities, including ecologically important seagrass meadows. Gene expression studies from controlled experiments can provide important insight as to how species/genotypes react to extreme events that will increase under global warming. In a common stress garden, we exposed three populations of eelgrass, Zostera marina, to extreme sea surface temperatures, simulating the 2003-European heat wave. Populations came from locations widely differing in their thermal regime, two northern European locations [Ebeltoft (Kattegat), Doverodde (Limfjord, Baltic Sea)], and one southern population from Gabicce Mare (Adriatic Sea), allowing to test for population specificity in the response to a realistic heat stress event. Eelgrass survival and growth as well as the expression of 12 stress associated candidate genes were assessed during and after the heat wave. Contrary to expectations, all populations suffered equally from 3 weeks of heat stress in terms of shoot loss. In contrast, populations markedly differed in multivariate measures of gene expression. While the gene expression profiles converged to pre-stress values directly after the heat wave, stress correlated genes were upregulated again 4 weeks later, in line with the observed delay in shoot loss. Target genes had to be selected based on functional knowledge in terrestrial plants, nevertheless, 10/12 genes were induced relative to the control treatment at least once during the heat wave in the fully marine plant Z. marina. This study underlines the importance of realistic stress and recovery scenarios in studying the impact of predicted climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20597540, year = {2010}, author = {Lo, A}, title = {China's Response to Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {15}, pages = {5689-5690}, doi = {10.1021/es101976r}, pmid = {20597540}, issn = {1520-5851}, mesh = {Air Pollution/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; Environmental Policy ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; Global Warming/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; Government Regulation ; Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid20597384, year = {2010}, author = {}, title = {Practical resilience to climate change.}, journal = {Health estate}, volume = {64}, number = {6}, pages = {49-56}, pmid = {20597384}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *Hospital Design and Construction ; Hospitals, Public ; State Medicine ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {With the NHS generating around 18 million tonnes of carbon and CO2 annually, estates personnel face a considerable challenge in meeting tough Government and EU energy reduction targets while maintaining patient safety/comfort amid predictions of, for instance, hotter summers. A three-year research project, which builds on the conclusions of two recent academic papers examining low energy design and refurbishment strategies for NHS buildings, and the opportunities for low energy ventilation and cooling, is investigating practical ways to adapt the NHS Retained Estate to increase its climate change resilience while simultaneously reducing its carbon footprint.}, }
@article {pmid20593524, year = {2010}, author = {}, title = {Climate change adaptation in New York City: building a risk management response. New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2010 Report. NPCC Knowledge Networking Event. December 2009.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1196}, number = {}, pages = {1-354}, pmid = {20593524}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; New York City ; *Risk Management ; }, }
@article {pmid20566560, year = {2010}, author = {Janes, CR}, title = {Failed development and vulnerability to climate change in central Asia: implications for food security and health.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {22}, number = {3 Suppl}, pages = {236S-245S}, doi = {10.1177/1010539510373008}, pmid = {20566560}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Animal Husbandry/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; *Family Health ; Female ; *Food Supply ; Government Regulation ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; Infant ; Interviews as Topic ; Male ; Mongolia ; Risk Factors ; Rural Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Social Planning ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {This article presents results of research undertaken to identify factors that affect the vulnerability of rural Mongolian herders to climate change. Findings suggest that models of market development instituted since 1990 have failed to recognize and support key elements of the pastoralist adaptive strategy. A retreating state presence has led to the collapse of regulatory regimes needed to safeguard critical common resources. This in turn has produced considerable social differentiation in the countryside, a breakdown in cooperative institutions, and conflicts over water and pasture. In a context of climate change, these changes seriously threaten the sustainability of the rural economy, leading to livelihood insecurity, growing rural poverty, and increasing rates of migration to shantytowns surrounding the capital city of Ulaanbaatar. The newly vulnerable poor are at higher risk for poor health and malnutrition.}, }
@article {pmid20582707, year = {2011}, author = {Ruiz-Labourdette, D and Martínez, F and Martín-López, B and Montes, C and Pineda, FD}, title = {Equilibrium of vegetation and climate at the European rear edge. A reference for climate change planning in mountainous Mediterranean regions.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, pages = {285-301}, pmid = {20582707}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Altitude ; Climate ; *Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Ecosystem ; Mediterranean Region ; Multivariate Analysis ; Plant Development ; Plants/classification/*metabolism ; Regression Analysis ; }, abstract = {Mediterranean mountains harbour some of Europe's highest floristic richness. This is accounted for largely by the mesoclimatic variety in these areas, along with the co-occurrence of a small area of Eurosiberian, Boreal and Mediterranean species, and those of Tertiary Subtropical origin. Throughout the twenty-first century, we are likely to witness a climate change-related modification of the biogeographic scenario in these mountains, and there is therefore a need for accurate climate regionalisations to serve as a reference of the abundance and distribution of species and communities, particularly those of a relictic nature. This paper presents an objective mapping method focussing on climate regions in a mountain range. The procedure was tested in the Cordillera Central Mountains of the Iberian Peninsula, in the western Mediterranean, one of the ranges occupying the largest area of the Mediterranean Basin. This regionalisation is based upon multivariate analyses and upon detailed cartography employing 27 climatic variables. We used spatial interpolation of data based on geographic information. We detected high climatic diversity in the mountain range studied. We identified 13 climatic regions, all of which form a varying mosaic throughout the annual temperature and rainfall cycle. This heterogeneity results from two geographically opposed gradients. The first one is the Mediterranean-Euro-Siberian variation of the mountain range. The second gradient involves the degree of oceanicity, which is negatively related to distance from the Atlantic Ocean. The existing correlation between the climatic regions detected and the flora existing therein enables the results to be situated within the projected trends of global warming, and their biogeographic and ecological consequences to be analysed.}, }
@article {pmid20581013, year = {2010}, author = {Kreuzwieser, J and Gessler, A}, title = {Global climate change and tree nutrition: influence of water availability.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {30}, number = {9}, pages = {1221-1234}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpq055}, pmid = {20581013}, issn = {0829-318X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Droughts ; Floods ; Plant Roots ; Trees/*metabolism ; Water/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The effects of global climate change will regionally be very different, mainly causing considerable changes in temperature and water availability. For Central Europe, for example, increased temperatures are predicted, which will cause increased frequencies and durations of summer drought events. On the other hand, the predicted changes in precipitation patterns will lead to enhanced rainfall during winter and spring, thereby increasing the risk of flooding in Central and Northern Europe. Depending on the sensitivity to reduced water availability on the one hand and oxygen depletion due to waterlogging on the other, physiological performance, growth and competitive ability of trees may be adversely affected. Both drought and excess water availability impair the mineral nutrition of trees by influencing on the one hand the nutrient availability in the soil and on the other hand the physiology of the uptake systems mainly of the mycorrhizal tree roots. Extreme water regimes also change interaction patterns among plants and between plants and microorganisms, and alter the carbon balance of trees and ecosystems. Here we summarize and discuss the present knowledge on tree nutrition under altered water availability as expected to be more common in the future. The focus is on tree mineral nutrient uptake and metabolism as well as on the interaction between carbon allocation and the mineral nutrient balance as affected by reduced and excess water availability.}, }
@article {pmid20580904, year = {2010}, author = {Karvonen, A and Rintamäki, P and Jokela, J and Valtonen, ET}, title = {Increasing water temperature and disease risks in aquatic systems: climate change increases the risk of some, but not all, diseases.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology}, volume = {40}, number = {13}, pages = {1483-1488}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijpara.2010.04.015}, pmid = {20580904}, issn = {1879-0135}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture ; Bacterial Infections/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Climate Change ; Finland ; Fish Diseases/*epidemiology/microbiology/parasitology ; Global Warming ; Parasitic Diseases, Animal/*epidemiology ; Prevalence ; Salmonidae ; *Water ; }, abstract = {Global warming may impose severe risks for aquatic animal health if increasing water temperature leads to an increase in the incidence of parasitic diseases. Essentially, this could take place through a temperature-driven effect on the epidemiology of the disease. For example, higher temperature may boost the rate of disease spread through positive effects on parasite fitness in a weakened host. Increased temperature may also lengthen the transmission season leading to higher total prevalence of infection and more widespread epidemics. However, to date, general understanding of these relationships is limited due to scarcity of long-term empirical data. Here, we present one of the first long-term multi-pathogen data sets on the occurrence of pathogenic bacterial and parasitic infections in relation to increasing temperatures in aquatic systems. We analyse a time-series of disease dynamics on two fish farms in northern Finland from 1986 to 2006. We first demonstrate that the annual mean water temperature increased significantly on both farms over the study period and that the increase was most pronounced in the late summer (July-September). Second, we show that the prevalence of infection (i.e. proportion of fish tanks infected each year) increased with temperature. Interestingly, this pattern was observed in some of the diseases (Ichthyophthirius multifiliis, Flavobacterium columnare), whereas in the other diseases, the pattern was the opposite (Ichthyobodo necator) or absent (Chilodonella spp.). These results demonstrate the effect of increasing water temperature on aquatic disease dynamics, but also emphasise the importance of the biology of each disease, as well as the role of local conditions, in determining the direction and magnitude of these effects.}, }
@article {pmid20580812, year = {2010}, author = {Kim, MH and Kim, JW}, title = {Comparison through a LCA evaluation analysis of food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {408}, number = {19}, pages = {3998-4006}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.04.049}, pmid = {20580812}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Garbage ; *Global Warming ; Methane/analysis ; Waste Management/*methods ; }, abstract = {This study evaluated feed manufacturing including dry feeding and wet feeding, composting, and landfilling for food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery. The method of the expanded system boundaries was employed in order to compare different by-products. The whole stages of disposal involved in the systems such as separate discharge, collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal, were included in the system boundary and evaluated. The Global Warming Potential generated from 1tonne of food wastes for each disposal system was analyzed by the life cycle assessment method. The results showed that 200kg of CO(2)-eq could be produced from dry feeding process, 61kg of CO(2)-eq from wet feeding process, 123kg of CO(2)-eq from composting process, and 1010kg of CO(2)-eq from landfilling. Feed manufacturing and composting, the common treatment methods currently employed, have been known to be environment friendlier than other methods. However, this study shows that they can negatively affect the environment if their by-products are not appropriately utilized as intended.}, }
@article {pmid20580609, year = {2010}, author = {Weaver, HJ and Hawdon, JM and Hoberg, EP}, title = {Soil-transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behavior.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {26}, number = {12}, pages = {574-581}, doi = {10.1016/j.pt.2010.06.009}, pmid = {20580609}, issn = {1471-5007}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior/*physiology ; *Global Warming ; Helminthiasis/parasitology/*transmission ; Helminths/physiology ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Soil/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {Soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warming and extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, with cascading effects on human health and wellbeing, food security and socioeconomic infrastructure. Understanding how the spectrum of climate change effects will influence STHs is therefore of critical importance to the control of the global burden of human parasitic disease. Realistic progress in the global control of STH in a changing climate requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes the sciences (e.g. thermal thresholds for parasite development and resilience) and social sciences (e.g. behavior and implementation of education and sanitation programs).}, }
@article {pmid20580400, year = {2010}, author = {Bonte, M and Zwolsman, JJ}, title = {Climate change induced salinisation of artificial lakes in the Netherlands and consequences for drinking water production.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {44}, number = {15}, pages = {4411-4424}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2010.06.004}, pmid = {20580400}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Chlorides/analysis ; *Climate ; Climate Change ; Fresh Water/*analysis ; Geography ; *Models, Theoretical ; Netherlands ; Rain ; Salinity ; Seasons ; Water Movements ; Water Supply/*analysis ; }, abstract = {In this paper we present a modelling study to investigate the impacts of climate change on the chloride concentration and salinisation processes in two man-made freshwater lakes in the Netherlands, Lake IJsselmeer and Lake Markermeer. We used a transient compartmental chloride and water balance model to elucidate the salinisation processes occurring under present conditions and assess future salinisation under two climate forcing scenarios. The model results showed that the Rhine River is the dominant determinant for the chloride concentration in both lakes, followed by drainage of brackish groundwater from the surrounding polders. The results further show that especially during dry years, seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam is an important source of chloride to Lake IJsselmeer. The results from the climatic forcing scenarios show that Lake IJsselmeer is especially vulnerable to climate-induced salinisation whereas effects on Lake Markermeer are relatively small. Peak chloride concentrations at the raw water intake of the Andijk drinking water facility on Lake IJsselmeer are projected to increase to values above 250 mg/l in the most far-reaching climate change scenario W+ in 2050 for dry years. This is well above the maximum allowable concentration of 150 mg/l for chloride in drinking water. Modelling showed that climate change impacts the chloride concentrations in a variety of ways: 1) an increasing occurrence of low river flows from summer to autumn reduces the dilution of the chloride that is emitted to the Rhine with a constant load thereby increasing its concentration; 2) increased open water evaporation and reduced rainfall during summer periods and droughts increases the chloride concentration in the water; and 3) rises in sea level increase seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam of Lake IJsselmeer. The processes described here are likely to affect many other tidal rivers or lakes and should be considered when planning future raw water intake stations for drinking water production or agricultural water supply.}, }
@article {pmid20578846, year = {2010}, author = {Fuller, A and Dawson, T and Helmuth, B and Hetem, RS and Mitchell, D and Maloney, SK}, title = {Physiological mechanisms in coping with climate change.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {83}, number = {5}, pages = {713-720}, doi = {10.1086/652242}, pmid = {20578846}, issn = {1537-5293}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; Biophysics/methods ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecology/methods ; *Environment ; *Models, Biological ; *Phenotype ; }, abstract = {Although many studies have modeled the effects of climate change on future species distributions and extinctions, the theoretical approach most commonly used-climate envelope modeling-typically ignores the potential physiological capacity of animals to respond to climate change. We explore the consequences of the phenotypic plasticity available to animals, by examining physiological responses of free-living animals in their natural habitats and by applying integrative, mechanistic models of heat exchange in invertebrates and humans. Specifically, we explore how behavioral, autonomic, and morphological modifications such as nocturnal activity, selective brain cooling, and body color may potentially serve as buffers to the consequences of climate change. Although some species may adapt to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, there are significant limits to this strategy. Furthermore, predictions of the response of organisms to changes in climate can be erroneous when modeled at large scales using coarse spatial or temporal data. Environmental heterogeneity can provide habitats suitable for species even though large-scale changes in the climate might predict a species' extinction. A detailed understanding of physiology, combined with integrative biophysical modeling and ecological manipulation, provides a powerful tool for predicting future ecological patterns and managing their consequences.}, }
@article {pmid20576877, year = {2010}, author = {Overpeck, J and Udall, B}, title = {Climate change. Dry times ahead.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {328}, number = {5986}, pages = {1642-1643}, doi = {10.1126/science.1186591}, pmid = {20576877}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20576861, year = {2010}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Critics are far less prominent than supporters.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {328}, number = {5986}, pages = {1622}, doi = {10.1126/science.328.5986.1622-b}, pmid = {20576861}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20576580, year = {2010}, author = {Mills, JN and Gage, KL and Khan, AS}, title = {Potential influence of climate change on vector-borne and zoonotic diseases: a review and proposed research plan.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {118}, number = {11}, pages = {1507-1514}, pmid = {20576580}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Vectors ; Ecosystem ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Humans ; Public Health ; Research Design ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Because of complex interactions of climate variables at the levels of the pathogen, vector, and host, the potential influence of climate change on vector-borne and zoonotic diseases (VBZDs) is poorly understood and difficult to predict. Climate effects on the nonvector-borne zoonotic diseases are especially obscure and have received scant treatment.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: We described known and potential effects of climate change on VBZDs and proposed specific studies to increase our understanding of these effects. The nonvector-borne zoonotic diseases have received scant treatment and are emphasized in this paper.<br><br>DATA SOURCES AND SYNTHESIS: We used a review of the existing literature and extrapolations from observations of short-term climate variation to suggest potential impacts of climate change on VBZDs. Using public health priorities on climate change, published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we developed six specific goals for increasing understanding of the interaction between climate and VBZDs and for improving capacity for predicting climate change effects on incidence and distribution of VBZDs.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change may affect the incidence of VBZDs through its effect on four principal characteristics of host and vector populations that relate to pathogen transmission to humans: geographic distribution, population density, prevalence of infection by zoonotic pathogens, and the pathogen load in individual hosts and vectors. These mechanisms may interact with each other and with other factors such as anthropogenic disturbance to produce varying effects on pathogen transmission within host and vector populations and to humans. Because climate change effects on most VBZDs act through wildlife hosts and vectors, understanding these effects will require multidisciplinary teams to conduct and interpret ecosystem-based studies of VBZD pathogens in host and vector populations and to identify the hosts, vectors, and pathogens with the greatest potential to affect human populations under climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid20573122, year = {2010}, author = {Sundell, J}, title = {Climate change is the norm! Why focus on just one pop-problem at a time--energy, mould, sustainability or climate change? When is the time for real indoor air and health science?.}, journal = {Indoor air}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {185-186}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0668.2010.00661.x}, pmid = {20573122}, issn = {1600-0668}, mesh = {*Air Pollution, Indoor/adverse effects/analysis/prevention &amp; control ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Fungi/classification/*growth &amp; development/isolation &amp; purification ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Research/trends ; *Research Design ; }, }
@article {pmid20571150, year = {2010}, author = {Lukac, M and Calfapietra, C and Lagomarsino, A and Loreto, F}, title = {Global climate change and tree nutrition: effects of elevated CO2 and temperature.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {30}, number = {9}, pages = {1209-1220}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpq040}, pmid = {20571150}, issn = {0829-318X}, mesh = {Ammonia/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Hot Temperature ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Although tree nutrition has not been the primary focus of large climate change experiments on trees, we are beginning to understand its links to elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature changes. This review focuses on the major nutrients, namely N and P, and deals with the effects of climate change on the processes that alter their cycling and availability. Current knowledge regarding biotic and abiotic agents of weathering, mobilization and immobilization of these elements will be discussed. To date, controlled environment studies have identified possible effects of climate change on tree nutrition. Only some of these findings, however, were verified in ecosystem scale experiments. Moreover, to be able to predict future effects of climate change on tree nutrition at this scale, we need to progress from studying effects of single factors to analysing interactions between factors such as elevated CO2, temperature or water availability.}, }
@article {pmid20569413, year = {2010}, author = {Brugnoli, E and Calfapietra, C}, title = {Carbonyl sulfide: a new tool for understanding the response of the land biosphere to climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {186}, number = {4}, pages = {783-785}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03285.x}, pmid = {20569413}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Carbon Isotopes ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Oceans and Seas ; Photosynthesis ; Sulfur Oxides/*metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid20568911, year = {2010}, author = {Lemelin, H and Matthews, D and Mattina, C and McIntyre, N and Johnston, M and Koster, R and Weenusk First Nation At Peawanuck, }, title = {Climate change, wellbeing and resilience in the Weenusk First Nation at Peawanuck: the Moccasin Telegraph goes global.}, journal = {Rural and remote health}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, pages = {1333}, pmid = {20568911}, issn = {1445-6354}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; Culture ; Female ; Food ; Health Status ; Humans ; *Indians, North American ; Interviews as Topic ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Ontario ; Rural Health ; *Social Change ; Technology ; }, abstract = {The Cree of Northern Ontario, Canada, have proved resilient and adaptable to social and environmental changes. However, the rapidity of climate change impacts in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of the Canadian sub-Arctic is challenging this resiliency. A collaborative project conducted with the Weenusk First Nation at Peawanuck and researchers at Lakehead University used the concept of wellbeing to explore the impact of climate change on current subsistence activities, resource management, and conservation strategies, while considering the implications of globalization on climate change awareness. This article describes the analysis of 22 interviews conducted with members of the Weenusk First Nation at Peawanuck. Findings indicate that residents are concerned with a variety of changes in the environment and their ability to use the land. For example, they noted changes in travel routes on water and land, often attributing these to geomorphic changes in the coastal landscapes along Hudson Bay. They also noted the disappearance of particular insects and bird species, and variations in the distribution of particular fauna and flora. Possible impacts of these changes on the community's wellbeing and resiliency are examined. Another major theme that arose from the analysis was the impact of traditional modes of communication (eg traditional knowledge, radio, newspaper) and newer forms (eg satellite television and the internet) on Indigenous people's understanding of climate change. Given that few researchers have acknowledged or recognized the globalization of the moccasin telegraph (ie the traditional mode of communication between First Nations), a discussion of this phenomenon and its significance for understanding emerging knowledge systems in small, remote First Nation communities is central to this article.}, }
@article {pmid20566872, year = {2010}, author = {Anderegg, WR and Prall, JW and Harold, J and Schneider, SH}, title = {Expert credibility in climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {27}, pages = {12107-12109}, pmid = {20566872}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Databases, Factual ; Ecology/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Opinion ; Research Personnel/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.}, }
@article {pmid20566519, year = {2010}, author = {Foxon, TJ}, title = {Stimulating investment in energy materials and technologies to combat climate change: an overview of learning curve analysis and niche market support.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1923}, pages = {3469-3483}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0106}, pmid = {20566519}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics ; Diffusion of Innovation ; Energy-Generating Resources/economics ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Europe ; Humans ; Models, Economic ; Public Policy ; United Kingdom ; United States ; }, abstract = {This paper addresses the probable levels of investment needed in new technologies for energy conversion and storage that are essential to address climate change, drawing on past evidence on the rate of cost improvements in energy technologies. A range of energy materials and technologies with lower carbon emissions over their life cycle are being developed, including fuel cells (FCs), hydrogen storage, batteries, supercapacitors, solar energy and nuclear power, and it is probable that most, if not all, of these technologies will be needed to mitigate climate change. High rates of innovation and deployment will be needed to meet targets such as the UK's goal of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, which will require significant levels of investment. Learning curves observed for reductions in unit costs of energy technologies, such as photovoltaics and FCs, can provide evidence on the probable future levels of investment needed. The paper concludes by making recommendations for policy measures to promote such investment from both the public and private sectors.}, }
@article {pmid20566507, year = {2010}, author = {Bruce, P and Catlow, R and Edwards, P}, title = {Energy materials to combat climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1923}, pages = {3225}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0105}, pmid = {20566507}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environment ; Equipment Design ; *Materials Testing ; Nuclear Reactors ; Technology ; }, }
@article {pmid20562385, year = {2010}, author = {Pritchard, JC and Whay, HR}, title = {Heat stress, climate change and animal welfare.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {166}, number = {25}, pages = {798}, doi = {10.1136/vr.c3196}, pmid = {20562385}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {Animal Welfare ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Dehydration/physiopathology/*veterinary ; Equidae ; Heat Stress Disorders/physiopathology/*veterinary ; Horse Diseases/*diagnosis/physiopathology ; Horses ; }, }
@article {pmid20561287, year = {2010}, author = {Marcos-López, M and Gale, P and Oidtmann, BC and Peeler, EJ}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on disease emergence in freshwater fish in the United Kingdom.}, journal = {Transboundary and emerging diseases}, volume = {57}, number = {5}, pages = {293-304}, doi = {10.1111/j.1865-1682.2010.01150.x}, pmid = {20561287}, issn = {1865-1682}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/*veterinary ; *Ecosystem ; Fish Diseases/*epidemiology ; Fishes ; *Fresh Water ; Risk Assessment ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {A risk framework has been developed to examine the influence of climate change on disease emergence in the United Kingdom. The fish immune response and the replication of pathogens are often correlated with water temperature, which manifest as temperature ranges for infection and clinical diseases. These data are reviewed for the major endemic and exotic disease threats to freshwater fish. Increasing water temperatures will shift the balance in favour of either the host or pathogen, changing the frequency and distribution of disease. A number of endemic diseases of salmonids (e.g. enteric red mouth, furunculosis, proliferative kidney disease and white spot) will become more prevalent and difficult to control as water temperatures increase. Outbreaks of koi herpesvirus in carp fisheries are likely to occur over a longer period each summer. Climate change also alters the threat level associated with exotic pathogens. The risk of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHSV), infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) and spring viraemia of carp virus (SVCV) declines as infection generally only establishes when water temperatures are less than 14°C for VHSV and IHNV and 17°C for SCVC. The risk of establishment of other exotic pathogens (epizootic haematopoietic necrosis and epizootic ulcerative syndrome) increases. The spread of Lactococcus garvieae northwards in Europe is likely to continue, and thus is more likely to be both introduced and become established. Measures to reduce the threat of exotic pathogens need to be revised to account for the changing exotic diseases threat. Increasing water temperatures and the negative effects of extreme weather events (e.g. storms) are likely to alter the freshwater environment adversely for both wild and farmed salmonid populations, increasing their susceptibility to disease and the likelihood of disease emergence. For wild populations, surveillance and risk mitigation need to be focused on locations where disease emergence, as a result of climate change, is most likely.}, }
@article {pmid20560904, year = {2010}, author = {Cecchi, L and D'Amato, G and Ayres, JG and Galan, C and Forastiere, F and Forsberg, B and Gerritsen, J and Nunes, C and Behrendt, H and Akdis, C and Dahl, R and Annesi-Maesano, I}, title = {Projections of the effects of climate change on allergic asthma: the contribution of aerobiology.}, journal = {Allergy}, volume = {65}, number = {9}, pages = {1073-1081}, doi = {10.1111/j.1398-9995.2010.02423.x}, pmid = {20560904}, issn = {1398-9995}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/immunology ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Allergens/*immunology ; Asthma/etiology/*immunology ; Europe ; Fungi/immunology/physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/etiology/*immunology ; Plant Development ; Plants/immunology ; Pollen/*immunology ; Spores, Fungal/*immunology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is unequivocal and represents a possible threat for patients affected by allergic conditions. It has already had an impact on living organisms, including plants and fungi with current scenarios projecting further effects by the end of the century. Over the last three decades, studies have shown changes in production, dispersion and allergen content of pollen and spores, which may be region- and species-specific. In addition, these changes may have been influenced by urban air pollutants interacting directly with pollen. Data suggest an increasing effect of aeroallergens on allergic patients over this period, which may also imply a greater likelihood of the development of an allergic respiratory disease in sensitized subjects and exacerbation of symptomatic patients. There are a number of limitations that make predictions uncertain, and further and specifically designed studies are needed to clarify current effects and future scenarios. We recommend: More stress on pollen/spore exposure in the diagnosis and treatment guidelines of respiratory and allergic diseases; collection of aerobiological data in a structured way at the European level; creation, promotion and support of multidisciplinary research teams in this area; lobbying the European Union and other funders to finance this research.}, }
@article {pmid20559354, year = {2010}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Intensive farming may ease climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {465}, number = {7300}, pages = {853}, doi = {10.1038/465853a}, pmid = {20559354}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Agriculture/*methods ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; }, }
@article {pmid20558709, year = {2010}, author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Bruno, JF}, title = {The impact of climate change on the world's marine ecosystems.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {328}, number = {5985}, pages = {1523-1528}, doi = {10.1126/science.1189930}, pmid = {20558709}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Magnoliopsida ; Oceans and Seas ; Policy Making ; Population Dynamics ; *Seawater ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Marine ecosystems are centrally important to the biology of the planet, yet a comprehensive understanding of how anthropogenic climate change is affecting them has been poorly developed. Recent studies indicate that rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations are driving ocean systems toward conditions not seen for millions of years, with an associated risk of fundamental and irreversible ecological transformation. The impacts of anthropogenic climate change so far include decreased ocean productivity, altered food web dynamics, reduced abundance of habitat-forming species, shifting species distributions, and a greater incidence of disease. Although there is considerable uncertainty about the spatial and temporal details, climate change is clearly and fundamentally altering ocean ecosystems. Further change will continue to create enormous challenges and costs for societies worldwide, particularly those in developing countries.}, }
@article {pmid20558708, year = {2010}, author = {Schofield, O and Ducklow, HW and Martinson, DG and Meredith, MP and Moline, MA and Fraser, WR}, title = {How do polar marine ecosystems respond to rapid climate change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {328}, number = {5985}, pages = {1520-1523}, doi = {10.1126/science.1185779}, pmid = {20558708}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Biomass ; Birds ; *Climate Change ; *Cold Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes ; Food Chain ; Ice Cover ; Mammals ; Oceanography/methods ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton ; Population Dynamics ; *Seawater ; }, abstract = {Climate change will alter marine ecosystems; however, the complexity of the food webs, combined with chronic undersampling, constrains efforts to predict their future and to optimally manage and protect marine resources. Sustained observations at the West Antarctic Peninsula show that in this region, rapid environmental change has coincided with shifts in the food web, from its base up to apex predators. New strategies will be required to gain further insight into how the marine climate system has influenced such changes and how it will do so in the future. Robotic networks, satellites, ships, and instruments mounted on animals and ice will collect data needed to improve numerical models that can then be used to study the future of polar ecosystems as climate change progresses.}, }
@article {pmid20557631, year = {2010}, author = {Kennedy, RJ and Crozier, WW}, title = {Evidence of changing migratory patterns of wild Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts in the River Bush, Northern Ireland, and possible associations with climate change.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {76}, number = {7}, pages = {1786-1805}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02617.x}, pmid = {20557631}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Northern Ireland ; Population Dynamics ; Rivers ; *Salmo salar ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The migration patterns, timing and biological characteristics of wild Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts in the River Bush, Northern Ireland, were examined over the period 1978-2008. A distinct change in the timing of the smolt run was detected with progressively earlier emigration periods evident across the time series. The shift in run timing ranged from 3.6 to 4.8 days 10 years(-1) for a range of standard migratory audit points. The timing of smolt emigration has been linked to ambient river temperature patterns. Distinct seasonal patterns were evident for biological characteristics of River Bush smolts with mean age and fork length decreasing throughout the emigration period. Marine survival patterns in 1 sea winter River Bush S. salar were strongly influenced by the run timing of the preceding smolt year such that later emigrating cohorts demonstrated increased survival. Possible mechanisms for this relationship based on local climatic variation have been explored, including the effect of potential thermal mismatch between freshwater and marine environments.}, }
@article {pmid20556905, year = {2010}, author = {Farquhar, D}, title = {Climate change and public health.}, journal = {NCSL legisbrief}, volume = {18}, number = {27}, pages = {1-2}, pmid = {20556905}, issn = {1068-2716}, mesh = {Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure ; Global Warming/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Humans ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Public Health Administration ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid20554552, year = {2010}, author = {Jiguet, F and Devictor, V and Ottvall, R and Van Turnhout, C and Van der Jeugd, H and Lindström, A}, title = {Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {277}, number = {1700}, pages = {3601-3608}, pmid = {20554552}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animal Migration/physiology ; Animals ; Birds/classification/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Breeding ; Climate ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; *Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.}, }
@article {pmid20552940, year = {2010}, author = {Primozic, L}, title = {Greening Australia's public health system: the role of public hospitals in responding to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of law and medicine}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {772-783}, pmid = {20552940}, issn = {1320-159X}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Financing, Government ; Hospitals, Public/*economics ; Humans ; *Policy Making ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most important social, economic, ecological and ethical issues of the 21st century. The effects of climate change on human health are now widely accepted as a genuine threat and the Australian Government has initiated policy and legislative responses. In addition, in the 2009-2010 budget the Australian Government has committed A$64 billion to public health and hospital reform. But will this Commonwealth funding support--and should it support--the government's high-profile climate change policy? Does Commonwealth funding translate to an obligation to support Commonwealth policies? This article explores the role of public hospitals as champions and role models of the Australian Government's climate change policy and how this might be done without detracting from the primary purpose of public hospital funding: improving patient care.}, }
@article {pmid20547856, year = {2010}, author = {Nordhaus, WD}, title = {Economic aspects of global warming in a post-Copenhagen environment.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {26}, pages = {11721-11726}, pmid = {20547856}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {The science of global warming has reached a consensus on the high likelihood of substantial warming over the coming century. Nations have taken only limited steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions since the first agreement in Kyoto in 1997, and little progress was made at the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. The present study examines alternative outcomes for emissions, climate change, and damages under different policy scenarios. It uses an updated version of the regional integrated model of climate and the economy (RICE model). Recent projections suggest that substantial future warming will occur if no abatement policies are implemented. The model also calculates the path of carbon prices necessary to keep the increase in global mean temperature to 2 degrees C or less in an efficient manner. The carbon price for 2010 associated with that goal is estimated to be $59 per ton (at 2005 prices), compared with an effective global average price today of around $5 per ton. However, it is unlikely that the Copenhagen temperature goal will be attained even if countries meet their ambitious stated objectives under the Copenhagen Accord.}, }
@article {pmid20545656, year = {2010}, author = {Solecki, W and Patrick, L and Brady, M and Grady, K and Maroko, A}, title = {Climate protection levels: incorporating climate change into design and performance standards. New York City Panel on Climate Change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1196}, number = {}, pages = {293-352}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05325.x}, pmid = {20545656}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Local Government ; New York City ; Research/*standards/trends ; *Research Design ; }, }
@article {pmid20545655, year = {2010}, author = {Major, DC and O'Grady, M}, title = {Adaptation assessment guidebook: New York City Panel on Climate Change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1196}, number = {}, pages = {229-292}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05324.x}, pmid = {20545655}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; *Health Planning Guidelines ; Humans ; *Local Government ; New York City ; Research/*trends ; Research Design ; Risk Assessment/methods/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid20545654, year = {2010}, author = {Horton, R and Rosenzweig, C and Gornitz, V and Bader, D and O'Grady, M}, title = {Climate risk information: climate change scenarios and implications for NYC infrastructure. New York City Panel on Climate Change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1196}, number = {}, pages = {147-228}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05323.x}, pmid = {20545654}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Local Government ; New York City ; Research/*trends ; Research Design ; Risk Assessment/methods/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid20545645, year = {2010}, author = {Rosenzweig, C and Solecki, W}, title = {Introduction to climate change adaptation in New York City: building a risk management response.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1196}, number = {}, pages = {13-18}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05306.x}, pmid = {20545645}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Local Government ; New York City ; Research/trends ; Research Design ; Risk Management/methods/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid20545644, year = {2010}, author = {}, title = {Executive summary of climate change adaptation in New York City: building a risk management response.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1196}, number = {}, pages = {7-12}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05398.x}, pmid = {20545644}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Local Government ; New York City ; Research/*trends ; Research Design ; Risk Management/methods/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid20545643, year = {2010}, author = {Rosenzweig, C and Solecki, W}, title = {Preface to climate change adaptation in New York City: building a risk management response.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1196}, number = {}, pages = {5-6}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05397.x}, pmid = {20545643}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; *Local Government ; New York City ; *Risk Management/methods/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid20545641, year = {2010}, author = {Rosenzweig, C and Solecki, W}, title = {Preface to climate change adaptation in New York City: building a risk management response.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1196}, number = {}, pages = {2}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05415_2.x}, pmid = {20545641}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; Humans ; New York City ; *Universities/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid20545640, year = {2010}, author = {Bloomberg, MR and Sachs, JD and Small, GM}, title = {Forewords to climate change adaptation in New York City: building a risk management response.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1196}, number = {}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05415_1.x}, pmid = {20545640}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Cooperative Behavior ; Humans ; New York City ; Risk Management/methods/*trends ; Universities/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid20541226, year = {2010}, author = {Karcher, M and Harms, I and Standring, WJ and Dowdall, M and Strand, P}, title = {On the potential for climate change impacts on marine anthropogenic radioactivity in the Arctic regions.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {60}, number = {8}, pages = {1151-1159}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2010.05.003}, pmid = {20541226}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Environment ; Environmental Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Global Warming ; Ice ; Kinetics ; Models, Theoretical ; *Radiation Monitoring ; Radioactive Pollutants/*analysis/chemistry ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants, Radioactive/analysis/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Current predictions as to the impacts of climate change in general and Arctic climate change in particular are such that a wide range of processes relevant to Arctic contaminants are potentially vulnerable. Of these, radioactive contaminants and the processes that govern their transport and fate may be particularly susceptible to the effects of a changing Arctic climate. This paper explores the potential changes in the physical system of the Arctic climate system as they are deducible from present day knowledge and model projections. As a contribution to a better preparedness regarding Arctic marine contamination with radioactivity we present and discuss how a changing marine physical environment may play a role in altering the current understanding pertaining to behavior of contaminant radionuclides in the marine environment of the Arctic region.}, }
@article {pmid20539850, year = {2010}, author = {Summerhayes, C}, title = {Climate change: a creeping catastrophe.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {88}, number = {6}, pages = {406-407}, doi = {10.2471/BLT.10.040610}, pmid = {20539850}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Delivery of Health Care/*organization &amp; administration ; *Global Health ; Health Status ; Humans ; Time Factors ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The possible links between climate change and health form one of the most controversial topics of our time. In this interview, Dr Colin Summerhayes talks about how the world’s climate is changing and the expected consequences on health.}, }
@article {pmid20538947, year = {2010}, author = {Immerzeel, WW and van Beek, LP and Bierkens, MF}, title = {Climate change will affect the Asian water towers.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {328}, number = {5984}, pages = {1382-1385}, doi = {10.1126/science.1183188}, pmid = {20538947}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {More than 1.4 billion people depend on water from the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers. Upstream snow and ice reserves of these basins, important in sustaining seasonal water availability, are likely to be affected substantially by climate change, but to what extent is yet unclear. Here, we show that meltwater is extremely important in the Indus basin and important for the Brahmaputra basin, but plays only a modest role for the Ganges, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers. A huge difference also exists between basins in the extent to which climate change is predicted to affect water availability and food security. The Brahmaputra and Indus basins are most susceptible to reductions of flow, threatening the food security of an estimated 60 million people.}, }
@article {pmid20536818, year = {2010}, author = {Leimu, R and Vergeer, P and Angeloni, F and Ouborg, NJ}, title = {Habitat fragmentation, climate change, and inbreeding in plants.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1195}, number = {}, pages = {84-98}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05450.x}, pmid = {20536818}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; Humans ; *Inbreeding ; *Plant Development ; Plants/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Habitat fragmentation and climate change are recognized as major threats to biodiversity. The major challenge for present day plant populations is how to adapt and cope with altered abiotic and biotic environments caused by climate change, when at the same time adaptive and evolutionary potential is decreased as habitat fragmentation reduces genetic variation and increases inbreeding. Although the ecological and evolutionary effects of fragmentation and climate change have been investigated separately, their combined effects remained largely unexplored. In this review, we will discuss the individual and joint effects of habitat fragmentation and climate change on plants and how the abilities and ways in which plants can respond and cope with climate change may be compromised due to habitat fragmentation.}, }
@article {pmid20536815, year = {2010}, author = {Delucchi, MA}, title = {Impacts of biofuels on climate change, water use, and land use.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1195}, number = {}, pages = {28-45}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05457.x}, pmid = {20536815}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics ; Biofuels/*economics ; Climate Change/*economics ; Fuel Oils/economics ; Humans ; Water Supply/*economics ; }, abstract = {Governments worldwide are promoting the development of biofuels in order to mitigate the climate impact of using fuels. In this article, I discuss the impacts of biofuels on climate change, water use, and land use. I discuss the overall metric by which these impacts have been measured and then present and discuss estimates of the impacts. In spite of the complexities of the environmental and technological systems that affect climate change, land use, and water use, and the difficulties of constructing useful metrics, it is possible to make some qualitative overall assessments. It is likely that biofuels produced from crops using conventional agricultural practices will not mitigate the impacts of climate change and will exacerbate stresses on water supplies, water quality, and land use, compared with petroleum fuels. Policies should promote the development of sustainable biofuel programs that have very low inputs of fossil fuels and chemicals that rely on rainfall or abundant groundwater, and that use land with little or no economic or ecological value in alternative uses.}, }
@article {pmid20535108, year = {2010}, author = {Mawle, A}, title = {Climate change, human health, and unsustainable development.}, journal = {Journal of public health policy}, volume = {31}, number = {2}, pages = {272-277}, doi = {10.1057/jphp.2010.12}, pmid = {20535108}, issn = {1745-655X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Health ; Global Health ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid20534610, year = {2010}, author = {La Sorte, FA and Jetz, W}, title = {Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {277}, number = {1699}, pages = {3401-3410}, pmid = {20534610}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*classification ; Demography ; *Global Warming ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Mountains, especially in the tropics, harbour a unique and large portion of the world's biodiversity. Their geographical isolation, limited range size and unique environmental adaptations make montane species potentially the most threatened under impeding climate change. Here, we provide a global baseline assessment of geographical range contractions and extinction risk of high-elevation specialists in a future warmer world. We consider three dispersal scenarios for simulated species and for the world's 1009 montane bird species. Under constrained vertical dispersal (VD), species with narrow vertical distributions are strongly impacted; at least a third of montane bird diversity is severely threatened. In a scenario of unconstrained VD, the location and structure of mountain systems emerge as a strong driver of extinction risk. Even unconstrained lateral movements offer little improvement to the fate of montane species in the Afrotropics, Australasia and Nearctic. Our results demonstrate the particular roles that the geography of species richness, the spatial structure of lateral and particularly vertical range extents and the specific geography of mountain systems have in determining the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change. Our findings confirm the outstanding levels of biotic perturbation and extinction risk that mountain systems are likely to experience under global warming and highlight the need for additional knowledge on species' vertical distributions, dispersal and adaptive capacities.}, }
@article {pmid20528987, year = {2010}, author = {Compant, S and van der Heijden, MG and Sessitsch, A}, title = {Climate change effects on beneficial plant-microorganism interactions.}, journal = {FEMS microbiology ecology}, volume = {73}, number = {2}, pages = {197-214}, doi = {10.1111/j.1574-6941.2010.00900.x}, pmid = {20528987}, issn = {1574-6941}, mesh = {Bacteria/*growth &amp; development ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; Mycorrhizae/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Plant Development ; Plants/*microbiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {It is well known that beneficial plant-associated microorganisms may stimulate plant growth and enhance resistance to disease and abiotic stresses. The effects of climate change factors such as elevated CO(2), drought and warming on beneficial plant-microorganism interactions are increasingly being explored. This now makes it possible to test whether some general patterns occur and whether different groups of plant-associated microorganisms respond differently or in the same way to climate change. Here, we review the results of 135 studies investigating the effects of climate change factors on beneficial microorganisms and their interaction with host plants. The majority of studies showed that elevated CO(2) had a positive influence on the abundance of arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal fungi, whereas the effects on plant growth-promoting bacteria and endophytic fungi were more variable. In most cases, plant-associated microorganisms had a beneficial effect on plants under elevated CO(2). The effects of increased temperature on beneficial plant-associated microorganisms were more variable, positive and neutral, and negative effects were equally common and varied considerably with the study system and the temperature range investigated. Moreover, numerous studies indicated that plant growth-promoting microorganisms (both bacteria and fungi) positively affected plants subjected to drought stress. Overall, this review shows that plant-associated microorganisms are an important factor influencing the response of plants to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20525955, year = {2010}, author = {Cooper, JE}, title = {Heat stress, climate change and animal welfare.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {166}, number = {23}, pages = {729}, doi = {10.1136/vr.c2817}, pmid = {20525955}, issn = {2042-7670}, mesh = {*Animal Welfare ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Heat Stress Disorders/diagnosis/*veterinary ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid20523733, year = {2010}, author = {Liao, C and Luo, Y and Fang, C and Li, B}, title = {Ecosystem carbon stock influenced by plantation practice: implications for planting forests as a measure of climate change mitigation.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {e10867}, pmid = {20523733}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Biomass ; Carbon/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Publications ; Soil ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Uncertainties remain in the potential of forest plantations to sequestrate carbon (C). We synthesized 86 experimental studies with paired-site design, using a meta-analysis approach, to quantify the differences in ecosystem C pools between plantations and their corresponding adjacent primary and secondary forests (natural forests). Totaled ecosystem C stock in plant and soil pools was 284 Mg C ha(-1) in natural forests and decreased by 28% in plantations. In comparison with natural forests, plantations decreased aboveground net primary production, litterfall, and rate of soil respiration by 11, 34, and 32%, respectively. Fine root biomass, soil C concentration, and soil microbial C concentration decreased respectively by 66, 32, and 29% in plantations relative to natural forests. Soil available N, P and K concentrations were lower by 22, 20 and 26%, respectively, in plantations than in natural forests. The general pattern of decreased ecosystem C pools did not change between two different groups in relation to various factors: stand age (< 25 years vs. > or = 25 years), stand types (broadleaved vs. coniferous and deciduous vs. evergreen), tree species origin (native vs. exotic) of plantations, land-use history (afforestation vs. reforestation) and site preparation for plantations (unburnt vs. burnt), and study regions (tropic vs. temperate). The pattern also held true across geographic regions. Our findings argued against the replacement of natural forests by the plantations as a measure of climate change mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid20522420, year = {2010}, author = {Linares, JC and Tíscar, PA}, title = {Climate change impacts and vulnerability of the southern populations of Pinus nigra subsp. salzmannii.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {795-806}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpq052}, pmid = {20522420}, issn = {0829-318X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Demography ; Droughts ; Mediterranean Region ; Pinus/*physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The understanding of regional vulnerability to climate change in Mediterranean mountain forests is not well developed. Climate change impacts on tree growth should be strongly related to the steep environmental gradients of mountainous areas, where a temperature-induced upward shift of the lower elevation limit is expected, particularly amongst drought-sensitive species. Trees will adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased extreme events such as prolonged drought. In this paper, we investigate the sub-regional temperature and precipitation trends and measure the basal area increment (BAI) in Pinus nigra subsp. salzmannii (Dunal) Franco. Significant differences related to altitudinal and latitudinal gradients and stand-age structure were found in response to long-term trends in climate dryness. Old trees growing at higher elevations showed similar extreme drought sensitivity but maintained almost steady BAI. Declining BAI found in trees at lower elevations and drier sites may imply a higher vulnerability to temperature-induced drought stress, suggesting an impending growth decline and an enhanced die-off risk. Our results illustrate how the effects of long-term warming and short-term drought on tree BAI are influenced by both site conditions and mean stand age in a drought-sensitive Mediterranean pine.}, }
@article {pmid20519425, year = {2010}, author = {Ryan, SM and Nielsen, CJ}, title = {Global warming potential of inhaled anesthetics: application to clinical use.}, journal = {Anesthesia and analgesia}, volume = {111}, number = {1}, pages = {92-98}, doi = {10.1213/ANE.0b013e3181e058d7}, pmid = {20519425}, issn = {1526-7598}, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Anesthesia, Inhalation ; Anesthetics, Inhalation/*chemistry ; Desflurane ; *Global Warming ; Isoflurane/analogs &amp; derivatives/chemistry ; Methyl Ethers/chemistry ; Nitrous Oxide/chemistry ; Practice Patterns, Physicians' ; Sevoflurane ; Spectrophotometry, Infrared ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Inhaled anesthetics are recognized greenhouse gases. Calculating their relative impact during common clinical usage will allow comparison to each other and to carbon dioxide emissions in general.<br><br>METHODS: We determined infrared absorption cross-sections for sevoflurane and isoflurane. Twenty-year global warming potential (GWP(20)) values for desflurane, sevoflurane, and isoflurane were then calculated using the present and previously published infrared results, and best estimate atmospheric lifetimes were determined. The total quantity of each anesthetic used in 1 minimal alveolar concentration (MAC)-hour was then multiplied by the calculated GWP(20) for that anesthetic, and expressed as "carbon dioxide equivalent" (CDE(20)) in grams. Common fresh gas flows and carrier gases, both air/oxygen and nitrous oxide (N2O)/oxygen, were considered in the calculations to allow these examples to represent common clinical use of inhaled anesthetics.<br><br>RESULTS: GWP(20) values for the inhaled anesthetics were: sevoflurane 349, isoflurane 1401, and desflurane 3714. CDE(20) values for 1 MAC-hour at 2 L fresh gas flow were: sevoflurane 6980 g, isoflurane 15,551 g, and desflurane 187,186 g. Comparison among these anesthetics produced a ratio of sevoflurane 1, isoflurane 2.2, and desflurane 26.8. When 60% N2O/40% oxygen replaced air/oxygen as a carrier gas combination, and inhaled anesthetic delivery was adjusted to deliver 1 MAC-hour of anesthetic, sevoflurane CDE(20) values were 5.9 times higher with N2O than when carried with air/O2, isoflurane values were 2.9 times higher, and desflurane values were 0.4 times lower. On a 100-year time horizon with 60% N2O, the sevoflurane CDE(100) values were 19 times higher than when carried in air/O2, isoflurane values were 9 times higher, and desflurane values were equal with and without N2O.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Under comparable and common clinical conditions, desflurane has a greater potential impact on global warming than either isoflurane or sevoflurane. N2O alone produces a sizable greenhouse gas contribution relative to sevoflurane or isoflurane. Additionally, 60% N2O combined with potent inhaled anesthetics to deliver 1 MAC of anesthetic substantially increases the environmental impact of sevoflurane and isoflurane, and decreases that of desflurane. N2O is destructive to the ozone layer as well as possessing GWP; it continues to have impact over a longer timeframe, and may not be an environmentally sound tradeoff for desflurane. From our calculations, avoiding N2O and unnecessarily high fresh gas flow rates can reduce the environmental impact of inhaled anesthetics.}, }
@article {pmid20515503, year = {2010}, author = {Maibach, EW and Nisbet, M and Baldwin, P and Akerlof, K and Diao, G}, title = {Reframing climate change as a public health issue: an exploratory study of public reactions.}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {299}, pmid = {20515503}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Adult ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Public Health ; *Public Opinion ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is taking a toll on human health, and some leaders in the public health community have urged their colleagues to give voice to its health implications. Previous research has shown that Americans are only dimly aware of the health implications of climate change, yet the literature on issue framing suggests that providing a novel frame--such as human health--may be potentially useful in enhancing public engagement. We conducted an exploratory study in the United States of people's reactions to a public health-framed short essay on climate change.<br><br>METHODS: U.S. adult respondents (n = 70), stratified by six previously identified audience segments, read the essay and were asked to highlight in green or pink any portions of the essay they found "especially clear and helpful" or alternatively "especially confusing or unhelpful." Two dependent measures were created: a composite sentence-specific score based on reactions to all 18 sentences in the essay; and respondents' general reactions to the essay that were coded for valence (positive, neutral, or negative). We tested the hypothesis that five of the six audience segments would respond positively to the essay on both dependent measures.<br><br>RESULTS: There was clear evidence that two of the five segments responded positively to the public health essay, and mixed evidence that two other responded positively. There was limited evidence that the fifth segment responded positively. Post-hoc analysis showed that five of the six segments responded more positively to information about the health benefits associated with mitigation-related policy actions than to information about the health risks of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Presentations about climate change that encourage people to consider its human health relevance appear likely to provide many Americans with a useful and engaging new frame of reference. Information about the potential health benefits of specific mitigation-related policy actions appears to be particularly compelling. We believe that the public health community has an important perspective to share about climate change, a perspective that makes the problem more personally relevant, significant, and understandable to members of the public.}, }
@article {pmid20513720, year = {2010}, author = {Huxham, M and Kumara, MP and Jayatissa, LP and Krauss, KW and Kairo, J and Langat, J and Mencuccini, M and Skov, MW and Kirui, B}, title = {Intra- and interspecific facilitation in mangroves may increase resilience to climate change threats.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1549}, pages = {2127-2135}, pmid = {20513720}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Avicennia/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Geologic Sediments ; Kenya ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Salinity ; Sri Lanka ; Tidal Waves ; }, abstract = {Mangroves are intertidal ecosystems that are particularly vulnerable to climate change. At the low tidal limits of their range, they face swamping by rising sea levels; at the high tidal limits, they face increasing stress from desiccation and high salinity. Facilitation theory may help guide mangrove management and restoration in the face of these threats by suggesting how and when positive intra- and interspecific effects may occur: such effects are predicted in stressed environments such as the intertidal, but have yet to be shown among mangroves. Here, we report the results of a series of experiments at low and high tidal sites examining the effects of mangrove density and species mix on seedling survival and recruitment, and on the ability of mangroves to trap sediment and cause surface elevation change. Increasing density significantly increased the survival of seedlings of two different species at both high and low tidal sites, and enhanced sediment accretion and elevation at the low tidal site. Including Avicennia marina in species mixes enhanced total biomass at a degraded high tidal site. Increasing biomass led to changed microenvironments that allowed the recruitment and survival of different mangrove species, particularly Ceriops tagal.}, }
@article {pmid20513717, year = {2010}, author = {Woodward, G and Perkins, DM and Brown, LE}, title = {Climate change and freshwater ecosystems: impacts across multiple levels of organization.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1549}, pages = {2093-2106}, pmid = {20513717}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Fresh Water ; }, abstract = {Fresh waters are particularly vulnerable to climate change because (i) many species within these fragmented habitats have limited abilities to disperse as the environment changes; (ii) water temperature and availability are climate-dependent; and (iii) many systems are already exposed to numerous anthropogenic stressors. Most climate change studies to date have focused on individuals or species populations, rather than the higher levels of organization (i.e. communities, food webs, ecosystems). We propose that an understanding of the connections between these different levels, which are all ultimately based on individuals, can help to develop a more coherent theoretical framework based on metabolic scaling, foraging theory and ecological stoichiometry, to predict the ecological consequences of climate change. For instance, individual basal metabolic rate scales with body size (which also constrains food web structure and dynamics) and temperature (which determines many ecosystem processes and key aspects of foraging behaviour). In addition, increasing atmospheric CO(2) is predicted to alter molar CNP ratios of detrital inputs, which could lead to profound shifts in the stoichiometry of elemental fluxes between consumers and resources at the base of the food web. The different components of climate change (e.g. temperature, hydrology and atmospheric composition) not only affect multiple levels of biological organization, but they may also interact with the many other stressors to which fresh waters are exposed, and future research needs to address these potentially important synergies.}, }
@article {pmid20513715, year = {2010}, author = {Memmott, J and Carvell, C and Pywell, RF and Craze, PG}, title = {The potential impact of global warming on the efficacy of field margins sown for the conservation of bumble-bees.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1549}, pages = {2071-2079}, pmid = {20513715}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Bees/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Flowers/*growth &amp; development ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to drive species extinct by reducing their survival, reproduction and habitat. Less well appreciated is the possibility that climate change could cause extinction by changing the ecological interactions between species. If ecologists, land managers and policy makers are to manage farmland biodiversity sustainably under global climate change, they need to understand the ways in which species interact with each other as this will affect the way they respond to climate change. Here, we consider the ability of nectar flower mixtures used in field margins to provide sufficient forage for bumble-bees under future climate change. We simulated the effect of global warming on the network of plant-pollinator interactions in two types of field margin: a four-species pollen and nectar mix and a six-species wildflower mix. While periods without flowering resources and periods with no food were rare, curtailment of the field season was very common for the bumble-bees in both mixtures. The effect of this, however, could be ameliorated by adding extra species at the start and end of the flowering season. The plant species that could be used to future-proof margins against global warming are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid20513712, year = {2010}, author = {Kissling, WD and Field, R and Korntheuer, H and Heyder, U and Böhning-Gaese, K}, title = {Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1549}, pages = {2035-2045}, pmid = {20513712}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Kenya ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Plant Development ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant-animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.}, }
@article {pmid20513711, year = {2010}, author = {Van der Putten, WH and Macel, M and Visser, ME}, title = {Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1549}, pages = {2025-2034}, pmid = {20513711}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; *Plants ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biotic interactions and use it to argue that the abundance of species and the direction of selection during climate change vary depending on how their trophic interactions become disrupted. Plant abundance can be controlled by aboveground and belowground multitrophic level interactions with herbivores, pathogens, symbionts and their enemies. We discuss how these interactions may alter during climate change and the resulting species range shifts. We suggest conceptual analogies between species responses to climate warming and exotic species introduced in new ranges. There are also important differences: the herbivores, pathogens and mutualistic symbionts of range-expanding species and their enemies may co-migrate, and the continuous gene flow under climate warming can make adaptation in the expansion zone of range expanders different from that of cross-continental exotic species. We conclude that under climate change, results of altered species interactions may vary, ranging from species becoming rare to disproportionately abundant. Taking these possibilities into account will provide a new perspective on predicting species distribution under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20513710, year = {2010}, author = {Walther, GR}, title = {Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1549}, pages = {2019-2024}, pmid = {20513710}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {There is ample evidence for ecological responses to recent climate change. Most studies to date have concentrated on the effects of climate change on individuals and species, with particular emphasis on the effects on phenology and physiology of organisms as well as changes in the distribution and range shifts of species. However, responses by individual species to climate change are not isolated; they are connected through interactions with others at the same or adjacent trophic levels. Also from this more complex perspective, recent case studies have emphasized evidence on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services. This review highlights the 'knowns' but also 'unknowns' resulting from recent climate impact studies and reveals limitations of (linear) extrapolations from recent climate-induced responses of species to expected trends and magnitudes of future climate change. Hence, there is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also and more intensively to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.}, }
@article {pmid20513709, year = {2010}, author = {Montoya, JM and Raffaelli, D}, title = {Climate change, biotic interactions and ecosystem services.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1549}, pages = {2013-2018}, pmid = {20513709}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate change is real. The wrangling debates are over, and we now need to move onto a predictive ecology that will allow managers of landscapes and policy makers to adapt to the likely changes in biodiversity over the coming decades. There is ample evidence that ecological responses are already occurring at the individual species (population) level. The challenge is how to synthesize the growing list of such observations with a coherent body of theory that will enable us to predict where and when changes will occur, what the consequences might be for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and what we might do practically in order to maintain those systems in as good condition as possible. It is thus necessary to investigate the effects of climate change at the ecosystem level and to consider novel emergent ecosystems composed of new species assemblages arising from differential rates of range shifts of species. Here, we present current knowledge on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services supply, and summarize the papers included in this volume. We discuss how resilient ecosystems are in the face of the multiple components that characterize climate change, and suggest which current ecological theories may be used as a starting point to predict ecosystem-level effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20513708, year = {2010}, author = {Montoya, JM and Raffaelli, D}, title = {Climate change is real.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1549}, pages = {2011}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2010.0113}, pmid = {20513708}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid20508095, year = {2010}, author = {Kerr, RA and Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. NRC reports strongly advocate action on global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {328}, number = {5982}, pages = {1085}, doi = {10.1126/science.328.5982.1085}, pmid = {20508095}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Climate Change ; *Global Warming/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *National Academy of Sciences, U.S. ; Public Policy ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid20508094, year = {2010}, author = {Stone, R}, title = {Climate change research. Arduous expedition to sample last virgin tropical glaciers.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {328}, number = {5982}, pages = {1084-1085}, doi = {10.1126/science.328.5982.1084}, pmid = {20508094}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20507863, year = {2010}, author = {Navia, R and Crowley, DE}, title = {Closing the loop on organic waste management: biochar for agricultural land application and climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {28}, number = {6}, pages = {479-480}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X10370928}, pmid = {20507863}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Charcoal ; *Climate Change ; Incineration ; Soil ; Waste Management/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid20505122, year = {2010}, author = {Soares-Filho, B and Moutinho, P and Nepstad, D and Anderson, A and Rodrigues, H and Garcia, R and Dietzsch, L and Merry, F and Bowman, M and Hissa, L and Silvestrini, R and Maretti, C}, title = {Role of Brazilian Amazon protected areas in climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {24}, pages = {10821-10826}, pmid = {20505122}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Protected areas (PAs) now shelter 54% of the remaining forests of the Brazilian Amazon and contain 56% of its forest carbon. However, the role of these PAs in reducing carbon fluxes to the atmosphere from deforestation and their associated costs are still uncertain. To fill this gap, we analyzed the effect of each of 595 Brazilian Amazon PAs on deforestation using a metric that accounts for differences in probability of deforestation in areas of pairwise comparison. We found that the three major categories of PA (indigenous land, strictly protected, and sustainable use) showed an inhibitory effect, on average, between 1997 and 2008. Of 206 PAs created after the year 1999, 115 showed increased effectiveness after their designation as protected. The recent expansion of PAs in the Brazilian Amazon was responsible for 37% of the region's total reduction in deforestation between 2004 and 2006 without provoking leakage. All PAs, if fully implemented, have the potential to avoid 8.0 +/- 2.8 Pg of carbon emissions by 2050. Effectively implementing PAs in zones under high current or future anthropogenic threat offers high payoffs for reducing carbon emissions, and as a result should receive special attention in planning investments for regional conservation. Nevertheless, this strategy demands prompt and predictable resource streams. The Amazon PA network represents a cost of US$147 +/- 53 billion (net present value) for Brazil in terms of forgone profits and investments needed for their consolidation. These costs could be partially compensated by an international climate accord that includes economic incentives for tropical countries that reduce their carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.}, }
@article {pmid20501871, year = {2010}, author = {Rao, M and Samarth, A}, title = {Population dynamics and climate change: links and issues for development.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {32}, number = {2}, pages = {163-164}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdq042}, pmid = {20501871}, issn = {1741-3850}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; Public Health ; Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid22022342, year = {2010}, author = {McLeman, RA and Hunter, LM}, title = {Migration in the context of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: insights from analogues.}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change}, volume = {1}, number = {3}, pages = {450-461}, pmid = {22022342}, issn = {1757-7780}, support = {P2C HD066613/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R21 HD051146/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R21 HD051146-04/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {Migration is one of the variety of ways by which human populations adapt to environmental changes. The study of migration in the context of anthropogenic climate change is often approached using the concept of vulnerability and its key functional elements: exposure, system sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This article explores the interaction of climate change and vulnerability through review of case studies of dry-season migration in the West African Sahel, hurricane-related population displacements in the Caribbean basin, winter migration of 'snowbirds' to the US Sun-belt, and 1930s drought migration on the North American Great Plains. These examples are then used as analogues for identifying general causal, temporal, and spatial dimensions of climate migration, along with potential considerations for policy-making and future research needs.}, }
@article {pmid21749940, year = {2010}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {Push for new climate change agreement.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {20}, number = {8}, pages = {R335-6}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2010.04.003}, pmid = {21749940}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Congresses as Topic ; Denmark ; Humans ; International Cooperation/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid22443943, year = {2010}, author = {Gerber, P and Key, N and Portet, F and Steinfeld, H}, title = {Policy options in addressing livestock's contribution to climate change.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {393-406}, doi = {10.1017/S1751731110000133}, pmid = {22443943}, issn = {1751-7311}, abstract = {There is a great potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to livestock production. For achieving this potential will require new initiatives at national and international levels that include promoting research and development on new mitigation technologies; deploying, diffusing and transferring technologies to mitigate emissions; and enhancing capacities to monitor, report and verify emissions from livestock production. This study describes the sources of livestock-related GHG emissions and reviews available mitigation technologies and practices. We assess the main policy instruments available to curb emissions and promote carbon sinks, and discuss the relative merits of alternative approaches. We discuss recent experiences in countries that have enacted mitigation strategies for the livestock sector to illustrate some of the key issues and constraints in policy implementation. Finally, we explore the main issues and challenges surrounding international efforts to mitigate GHG emissions and discuss some possible ways to address these challenges in future climate agreements.}, }
@article {pmid22443942, year = {2010}, author = {van Dijk, J and Sargison, ND and Kenyon, F and Skuce, PJ}, title = {Climate change and infectious disease: helminthological challenges to farmed ruminants in temperate regions.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {377-392}, doi = {10.1017/S1751731109990991}, pmid = {22443942}, issn = {1751-7311}, abstract = {In the UK, recent mean temperatures have consistently increased by between 1°C and 4°C compared to the 30-year monthly averages. Furthermore, all available predictive models for the UK indicate that the climate is likely to change further and feature more extreme weather events and a trend towards wetter, milder winters and hotter, drier summers. These changes will alter the prevalence of endemic diseases spatially and/or temporally and impact on animal health and welfare. Most notable among these endemic parasites are the helminths, which have been shown to be very strongly influenced by both the short-term weather and climate through effects on their free-living larval stages on pasture. In this review, we examine recent trends in prevalence and epidemiology of key helminth species and consider whether these could be climate-related. We identify likely effects of temperature and rainfall on the free-living stages and some key parasite traits likely to determine parasite abundance under changed climatic conditions. We find clear evidence that climate change, especially elevated temperature, has already changed the overall abundance, seasonality and spatial spread of endemic helminths in the UK. We explore some confounders and alternative explanations for the observed patterns. Finally, we explore the implications of these findings for policy makers and the livestock industry and make some recommendations for future research priorities.}, }
@article {pmid22443938, year = {2010}, author = {Gill, M and Smith, P and Wilkinson, JM}, title = {Mitigating climate change: the role of domestic livestock.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {323-333}, doi = {10.1017/S1751731109004662}, pmid = {22443938}, issn = {1751-7311}, abstract = {Livestock contribute directly (i.e. as methane and nitrous oxide (N2O)) to about 9% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and around 3% of UK emissions. If all parts of the livestock production lifecycle are included (fossil fuels used to produce mineral fertilizers used in feed production and N2O emissions from fertilizer use; methane release from the breakdown of fertilizers and from animal manure; land-use changes for feed production and for grazing; land degradation; fossil fuel use during feed and animal production; fossil fuel use in production and transport of processed and refrigerated animal products), livestock are estimated to account for 18% of global anthropogenic emissions, but less than 8% in the UK. In terms of GHG emissions per unit of livestock product, monogastric livestock are more efficient than ruminants; thus in the UK, while sheep and cattle accounted for 32% of meat production in 2006, they accounted for 48% of GHG emissions associated with meat production. More efficient management of grazing lands and of manure can have a direct impact in decreasing emissions. Improving efficiency of livestock production through better breeding, health interventions or improving fertility can also decrease GHG emissions through decreasing the number of livestock required per unit product. Increasing the energy density of the diet has a dual effect, decreasing both direct emissions and the numbers of livestock per unit product, but, as the demands for food increase in response to increasing human population and a better diet in some developing countries, there is increasing competition for land for food v. energy-dense feed crops. Recalculating efficiencies of energy and protein production on the basis of human-edible food produced per unit of human-edible feed consumed gave higher efficiencies for ruminants than for monogastric animals. The policy community thus have difficult decisions to make in balancing the negative contribution of livestock to the environment against the positive benefit in terms of food security. The animal science community have a responsibility to provide an evidence base which is objective and holistic with respect to these two competing challenges.}, }
@article {pmid22443937, year = {2010}, author = {Simm, G}, title = {Guest editorial: Livestock and global climate change.}, journal = {Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {321-322}, doi = {10.1017/S1751731109991662}, pmid = {22443937}, issn = {1751-7311}, }
@article {pmid22314944, year = {2010}, author = {Ugwu, AC}, title = {Global climate change and body functions.}, journal = {Nigerian journal of physiological sciences : official publication of the Physiological Society of Nigeria}, volume = {25}, number = {2}, pages = {91-94}, pmid = {22314944}, issn = {0794-859X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Global Warming ; Nigeria ; }, abstract = {The following text is an excerpt of the Keynote Address delivered by Professor (Sir) A.C. Ugwu, of the University of Benin, at the Annual National Conference of the Physiological Society of Nigeria at Lagos, on Thursday, the 26th of August, 2010.In 1896, a Swedish Chemist, Savante Arrhenius, predicted Global Warming. Global Climate or Global W arming, is a gradual process that threatens sea level elevations, crop failure and famine, global rainfall patterns, changes to plant and animal populations and serious health effects....}, }
@article {pmid21542209, year = {2010}, author = {Rivers, N and Jaccard, M}, title = {Intensity-based climate change policies in Canada.}, journal = {Canadian public policy. Analyse de politiques}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {409-428}, doi = {10.3138/cpp.36.4.409}, pmid = {21542209}, issn = {0317-0861}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/economics/history ; Canada/ethnology ; *Climate Change/economics/history ; Government/history ; *Greenhouse Effect/economics/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Public Health/economics/education/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Public Policy/economics/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Vehicle Emissions/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from large industries the Canadian government proposed using a tradable emissions performance standard approach, where the intensity of emissions, rather than the absolute level, is regulated. Unlike a cap and trade system, an emissions performance standard does not guarantee a certain overall level of emission reductions, a fact that has led to significant criticism. However, because of the dynamics of performance standards, they may reduce concerns over reductions in international competitiveness in cases where a country has climate policies that are more aggressive than those of some of its trade partners. Likewise, a performance standard may mesh more efficiently with existing taxes and therefore cause less overall economic impact than an absolute cap and trade system. This paper considers the theoretical arguments for and against such a performance standard system and evaluates it in comparison to a cap and trade system using a dynamic general equilibrium model applied to Canada.}, }
@article {pmid21506298, year = {2010}, author = {Munslow, B and O'Dempsey, T}, title = {Globalisation and climate change in Asia: the urban health impact.}, journal = {Third world quarterly}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {1339-1356}, doi = {10.1080/01436597.2010.541082}, pmid = {21506298}, issn = {0143-6597}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/economics/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Asia/ethnology ; *Climate Change/economics/history ; Delivery of Health Care/economics/ethnology/history ; Droughts/economics/history ; *Environment ; Floods/economics/history ; *Health Care Costs/history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Internationality/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Public Health/economics/education/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Socioeconomic Factors/history ; *Urban Health/history ; Urban Population/history ; *Waste Management/economics/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {Asia's economic development successes will create new policy areas to address, as the advances made through globalisation create greater climate change challenges, particularly the impact on urban health. Poverty eradication and higher standards of living both increase demand on resources. Globalisation increases inequalities and those who are currently the losers will carry the greatest burden of the costs in the form of the negative effects of climate change and the humanitarian crises that will ensue. Of four major climate change challenges affecting the environment and health, two—urban air pollution and waste management—can be mitigated by policy change and technological innovation if sufficient resources are allocated. Because of the urban bias in the development process, these challenges will probably register on policy makers' agenda. The second two major challenges—floods and drought—are less amenable to policy and technological solutions: many humanitarian emergency challenges lie ahead. This article describes the widely varying impact of both globalisation and climate change across Asia. The greatest losers are those who flee one marginal location, the arid inland areas, only to settle in another marginal location in the flood prone coastal slums. Effective preparation is required, and an effective response when subsequent humanitarian crises occur.}, }
@article {pmid21506297, year = {2010}, author = {Blackwell, PJ}, title = {East Africa's pastoralist emergency: is climate change the straw that breaks the camel's back?.}, journal = {Third world quarterly}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {1321-1338}, doi = {10.1080/01436597.2010.541085}, pmid = {21506297}, issn = {0143-6597}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/ethnology ; *Agriculture/economics/education/history ; *Animal Diseases/economics/history ; Animals ; *Climate Change/economics/history ; Crops, Agricultural/economics/history ; Droughts/economics/history ; *Food Supply/economics/history ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Kenya/ethnology ; *Poverty/economics/ethnology/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/psychology ; Rural Health/history ; Socioeconomic Factors/history ; *Vulnerable Populations/ethnology/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/psychology ; }, abstract = {The global warming trend of climate change is having severe adverse effects on the livelihoods of the Turkana pastoralists of northwestern Kenya. Care has to be taken in making assertions about the impact of climate change. The biggest effects may come not from lower average rainfall but from a widening of the standard deviation as weather extremes become more frequent. In a region already prone to drought, disease and conflict, climate change, access to modern weapons and new viral livestock diseases are now overwhelming pastoralists' coping capacity and deepening the region's roughly 30-year dependency on famine relief. This article examines the livelihood strategies of the Turkana and several poverty reduction programmes currently established, while addressing the reality that traditional pastoralism may no longer be a viable livelihood option, given the effects of climate change, disease and the ensuing conflict over diminishing resources. The findings conclude that the future for traditional Turkana pastoralists is dismal because they continue to depend on an environment that may no longer support them. Humanitarians are recommended to shift their focus to advocate and invest in alternative livelihood strategies that generate economic independence and help the Turkana adapt to their changing environment.}, }
@article {pmid22135506, year = {2009}, author = {McAll, G}, title = {It's Time for Doctors to Speak Out on Climate Change.}, journal = {The Malaysian journal of medical sciences : MJMS}, volume = {16}, number = {4}, pages = {1-3}, pmid = {22135506}, issn = {1394-195X}, }
@article {pmid21622303, year = {2009}, author = {Miller-Rushing, AJ and Inouye, DW}, title = {Variation in the impact of climate change on flowering phenology and abundance: An examination of two pairs of closely related wildflower species.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {96}, number = {10}, pages = {1821-1829}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.0800411}, pmid = {21622303}, issn = {0002-9122}, abstract = {Variability in plant phenological responses to climate change is likely to lead to changes in many ecological relationships as the climate continues to change. We used a 34-yr record of flowering times and flower abundance for four species (two Delphinium [Ranunculaceae] species and two Mertensia [Boraginaceae] species) from a subalpine plant community near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory to test the hypothesis that the phenologies of early-flowering species change more rapidly in response to climatological and other abiotic cues than do late-flowering species, a pattern previously found in plant communities in North America and Europe. We also explored a related hypothesis, that flower abundance of late-flowering species is more responsive to changes in climate than that of early-flowering species. The Delphinium species did not support these hypotheses, but the Mertensia species did. The difference between the peak flowering times of the early and late Mertensia species is expanding, leading to a period of diminished resources for pollinators that specialize on this genus. Mertensia ciliata populations are already severely declining in our study area, possibly as a result of earlier snowmelt. Together, these results show that the reported differences between early- and late-flowering species may be widespread, but they are not ubiquitous.}, }
@article {pmid21117416, year = {2009}, author = {Seyedeh Zahra, S and Mahdavi, M and Sharifi, F and Bihamta, MR}, title = {Methodology for selecting the best predictor for climate change impact assessment in Karkheh basin, Iran.}, journal = {Journal of environmental science &amp; engineering}, volume = {51}, number = {4}, pages = {249-256}, pmid = {21117416}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Iran ; }, abstract = {Prediction of local extreme climatic events, particularly days of heavy rainfall and high temperature which can lead to flash flooding and droughts respectively, is an important study in the present day context. These extreme climatic events can cause devastative effects in agriculture, water infiltration, soil, public hygiene, industry, economy of the country etc. In the future, the rainfall in the region of Karkheh basin (Iran) is expected to be less, but there may be more intense rainfall events. The temperature and rainfall are important parameters for water planning and management. Hence, the climatic change impact studies on different systems such as water resources can lead to more optimal water resource management and planning. On a large scale, General Circulation Models (GCMs) are able to simulate reliably the most important means features of the global climate. The main disadvantage of GCMs is low spatial resolution (2.50). Their results are representatives on a large scale, but not on a regional or even a local scale. So these models should be downscaled to study at station scale. For statistical downscaling, 26 predictors are used, but before downscaling the best predictor should be selected. The present paper compares different methods and highlights the steps followed to select the best predictor in Karkheh basin (Iran).}, }
@article {pmid21379395, year = {2009}, author = {Wieser, G and Matyssek, R and Luzian, R and Zwerger, P and Pindur, P and Oberhuber, W and Gruber, A}, title = {Effects of atmospheric and climate change at the timberline of the Central European Alps.}, journal = {Annals of forest science}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {}, pmid = {21379395}, issn = {1286-4560}, support = {P 18819/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; P 19563/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, abstract = {This review considers potential effects of atmospheric change and climate warming within the timberline ecotone of the Central European Alps. After focusing on the impacts of ozone (O(3)) and rising atmospheric CO(2) concentration, effects of climate warming on the carbon and water balance of timberline trees and forests will be outlined towards conclusions about changes in tree growth and treeline dynamics.Presently, ambient ground-level O(3) concentrations do not exert crucial stress on adult conifers at the timberline of the Central European Alps. In response to elevated atmospheric CO(2)Larix decidua showed growth increase, whereas no such response was found in Pinus uncinata. Overall climate warming appears as the factor responsible for the observed growth stimulation of timberline trees.Increased seedling re-establishment in the Central European Alps however, resulted from invasion into potential habitats rather than upward migration due to climate change, although seedlings will only reach tree size upon successful coupling with the atmosphere and thus loosing the beneficial microclimate of low stature vegetation.In conclusion, future climate extremes are more likely than the gradual temperature increase to control treeline dynamics in the Central European Alps.}, }
@article {pmid21912359, year = {2009}, author = {Humphreys, M}, title = {Telemedicine: climate change and mosquito-borne disease: a historical perspective.}, journal = {MD advisor : a journal for New Jersey medical community}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {16-21}, pmid = {21912359}, issn = {1947-3613}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Culicidae ; Dengue/epidemiology/*history ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; Insect Vectors ; Malaria/epidemiology/*history ; United States/epidemiology ; Yellow Fever/epidemiology/*history ; }, }
@article {pmid20735625, year = {2009}, author = {Graham, CT and Harrod, C}, title = {Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles.}, journal = {Journal of fish biology}, volume = {74}, number = {6}, pages = {1143-1205}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8649.2009.02180.x}, pmid = {20735625}, issn = {1095-8649}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Fishes ; Ireland ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool-adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm-adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold-adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g.Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food-web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.}, }
@article {pmid21483497, year = {2009}, author = {Nabi, S and Qader, S}, title = {Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?.}, journal = {The Libyan journal of medicine}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {18-22}, pmid = {21483497}, issn = {1993-2820}, abstract = {The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world.This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards.}, }
@article {pmid20948670, year = {2009}, author = {Hagerman, SM and Chan, KM}, title = {Climate change and biodiversity conservation: impacts, adaptation strategies and future research directions.}, journal = {F1000 biology reports}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {16}, pmid = {20948670}, issn = {1757-594X}, abstract = {The impacts of climate change pose fundamental challenges for current approaches to biodiversity conservation. Changing temperature and precipitation regimes will interact with existing drivers such as habitat loss to influence species distributions despite their protection within reserve boundaries. In this report we summarize a suite of current adaptation proposals for conservation, and highlight some key issues to be resolved.}, }
@article {pmid20948641, year = {2009}, author = {Jansson, R}, title = {Extinction risks from climate change: macroecological and historical insights.}, journal = {F1000 biology reports}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {44}, pmid = {20948641}, issn = {1757-594X}, abstract = {Human-induced climate change may threaten a large proportion of Earth's biota, but the uncertainties involved in projecting the future geographical distributions of species make quantitative predictions of extinction risk difficult to make. I discuss how insight from recent advances in macroecology and knowledge about species responses to past climate change can help predict extinction risks more accurately.}, }
@article {pmid20508757, year = {2009}, author = {Nichols, A and Maynard, V and Goodman, B and Richardson, J}, title = {Health, Climate Change and Sustainability: A systematic Review and Thematic Analysis of the Literature.}, journal = {Environmental health insights}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {63-88}, pmid = {20508757}, issn = {1178-6302}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Evidence of climate change and its impact continues to be accumulated, and it is argued that the consequences of climate change are likely to result in an increased demand on health services. It has been claimed that climate change presents new challenges for health services and that strategies should be adopted to address these challenges.<br><br>AIM: The aim of this systematic review was to map published literature on health, climate change and sustainability by categorising papers according to their focus on effects, strategy and actions, and to provide a thematic analysis of their content.<br><br>METHODS: Systematic searches were conducted via a range of healthcare related databases i.e. Pubmed, Medline, CINAHL, AMED, ASSIA, IBSS and ISI Web of Knowledge. Searches focussed upon papers published in English between 1998 and 2008. Retrieved papers were studied by the authors in order to inform the thematic analysis of their content.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 114 publications were retrieved, of which 36 met the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. These 36 publications were categorised and are discussed according to their focus on: effects/impacts, strategy/policy, action/examples.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A number of papers report the potential health effects of climate change while others report policies and strategies to tackle these effects. However there is an urgent need to identify and report on the implementation of strategies to mitigate and adapt to these challenges and to publish real examples of actions. Actions that are taken need to be evidence/policy based, and implementations monitored, evaluated and published.}, }
@article {pmid21748087, year = {2008}, author = {Khan, MA}, title = {Re: physicians, climate change &amp; human health.}, journal = {Sultan Qaboos University medical journal}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {368-369}, pmid = {21748087}, issn = {2075-051X}, }
@article {pmid21396065, year = {2008}, author = {Chen, Y}, title = {Global potential distribution of an invasive species, the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) under climate change.}, journal = {Integrative zoology}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {166-175}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-4877.2008.00095.x}, pmid = {21396065}, issn = {1749-4869}, abstract = {Changes to the Earth's climate may affect the distribution of countless species. Understanding the potential distribution of known invasive species under an altered climate is vital to predicting impacts and developing management policy. The present study employs ecological niche modeling to construct the global potential distribution range of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) using past, current and future climate scenarios. Three modeling algorithms, GARP, BioClim and Environmental Distance, were used in a comparative analysis. Output from the models suggest firstly that this insect originated from south Asia, expanded into Europe and then into Afrotropical regions, after which it formed its current distribution. Second, the invasive risk of A. gracilipes under future climatic change scenarios will become greater because of an extension of suitable environmental conditions in higher latitudes. Third, when compared to the GARP model, BioClim and Environmental Distance models were better at modeling a species' ancestral distribution. These findings are discussed in light of the predictive accuracy of these models.}, }
@article {pmid21748049, year = {2008}, author = {Al-Lamki, L}, title = {Physicians, climate change and human health.}, journal = {Sultan Qaboos University medical journal}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {125-127}, pmid = {21748049}, issn = {2075-051X}, }
@article {pmid21632384, year = {2008}, author = {Dubreuil, M and Riba, M and Mayol, M}, title = {Genetic structure and diversity in Ramonda myconi (Gesneriaceae): effects of historical climate change on a preglacial relict species.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {95}, number = {5}, pages = {577-587}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.2007320}, pmid = {21632384}, issn = {0002-9122}, abstract = {The importance of the Mediterranean Basin as a long-term reservoir of biological diversity has been widely recognized, although much less effort has been devoted to understanding processes that allow species to persist in this area. Ramonda myconi (Gesneriaceae) is a Tertiary relict plant species restricted to the NE Iberian Peninsula. We used RAPD and chloroplast markers to assess the patterns of genetic structure in eight mountain regions covering almost the full species range, to identify the main historical processes that have shaped its current distribution and to infer the number and location of putative glacial refugia. While no cpDNA variation was detected, the species had relatively high levels of RAPD variation. Maximum levels of diversity were found within populations (71%), but there was also a significant differentiation between geographical regions (20%) and among populations within regions (9%). A spatial AMOVA identified three main groups of populations, corresponding to previously recognized centers of endemism and species richness. In addition, we found a marked geographical pattern of decreasing genetic diversity and increasing population differentiation from west to east. Our results support a complex phylogeographic scenario in the Iberian Peninsula of "refugia-within-refugia" and suggest that the higher diversity observed in western regions might be associated with prolonged and more stable climatic conditions in this area during the Quaternary.}, }
@article {pmid21572835, year = {2008}, author = {Richardson, J and Kagawa, F and Nichols, A}, title = {Health, climate change and energy vulnerability: a retrospective assessment of strategic health authority policy and practice in England.}, journal = {Environmental health insights}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {97-103}, pmid = {21572835}, issn = {1178-6302}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: A number of policy documents suggest that health services should be taking climate change and sustainability seriously and recommendations have been made to mitigate and adapt to the challenges health care providers will face. Actions include, for example, moving towards locally sourced food supplies, reducing waste, energy consumption and travel, and including sustainability in policies and strategies. A Strategic Health Authority (SHA) is part of the National Health Service (NHS) in England. They are responsible for developing strategies for the local health services and ensuring high-quality performance. They manage the NHS locally and are a key link between the U.K. Department of Health and the NHS. They also ensure that national priorities are integrated into local plans. Thus they are in a key position to influence policies and practices to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climate change and promote sustainability.<br><br>AIM: The aim of this study was to review publicly available documents produced by Strategic Health Authorities (SHA) to assess the extent to which current activity and planning locally takes into consideration climate change and energy vulnerability.<br><br>METHODS: A retrospective thematic content analysis of publicly available materials was undertaken by two researchers over a six month period in 2008. These materials were obtained from the websites of the 10 SHAs in England. Materials included annual reports, plans, policies and strategy documents.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 10 SHAs searched, 4 were found to have an absence of content related to climate change and sustainability. Of the remaining 6 SHAs that did include content related to climate change and energy vulnerability on their websites consistent themes were seen to emerge. These included commitment to a regional sustainability framework in collaboration with other agencies in the pursuit and promotion of sustainable development. Results indicate that many SHAs in England have yet to embrace sustainability, or to integrate preparations for climate change and energy vulnerability within their organisational strategies. Evidence also suggests that SHAs that have recognised the importance of sustainability within their documentation and policies have yet to fully demonstrate this in practice through the implementation of these policies.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Further research is required to investigate means by which SHAs (U.K.) and agencies responsible for health service policy in other countries may be enabled to include a greater consideration of sustainability and climate change within their policies, and to find effective ways of implementing these policies within daily working practice.}, }
@article {pmid21672860, year = {2007}, author = {Clack, JA}, title = {Devonian climate change, breathing, and the origin of the tetrapod stem group.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {47}, number = {4}, pages = {510-523}, doi = {10.1093/icb/icm055}, pmid = {21672860}, issn = {1540-7063}, abstract = {The diversification of the tetrapod stem group occurred during the late Middle through the Late Devonian, that is from the Givetian to Famennian stages about 385-365 million years ago. The relationships between the known taxa representing this radiation have currently reached a reasonable consensus so that interpretations of the order of appearance of tetrapod characters is possible. The immediate fish relatives of the earliest limbed tetrapods show what is interpreted as a progressive increase in the spiracular chamber and its opening to the outside. Here, this is inferred to be associated with an increased capacity for air-breathing. Lungs are thought to have been present in most early bony fishes, and were most likely ventilated by air-gulping. This could have brought about a facultative capacity for air-breathing, which the tetrapod stem group exploited to the greatest degree. These adaptations are shown not only in freshwater forms but also in estuarine and marginal marine forms. Estimates of oxygen levels during this period suggest that they were unprecedentedly low during the Givetian and Frasnian periods. At the same time, plant diversification was at its most rapid, changing the character of the landscape and contributing, via soils, soluble nutrients, and decaying plant matter, to anoxia in all water systems. The co-occurrence of these global events may explain the evolution of air-breathing adaptations in at least two lobe-finned groups, contributing directly to the rise of the tetrapod stem group. In contrast to recent studies, low atmospheric oxygen is not considered to be a causal factor in the lack of fossils documenting the evolution of Early Carboniferous tetrapods.}, }
@article {pmid21957376, year = {2007}, author = {Patil, RR and Deepa, TM}, title = {Climate change: The challenges for public health preparedness and response- An Indian case study.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {113-115}, pmid = {21957376}, issn = {0973-2284}, abstract = {Extremes weather changes surpassing their usual statistical ranges and tumbling records in India could be an early warning bell of global warming. Extreme weather events like the recent record setting in western Indian city of Mumbai or all time high fatalities due to the heat wave in southern Indian states or increasing vulnerability of easten Indian states to flood could all be a manifestation of climate change in the Asian subcontinent. While the skeptics may be inclined to dismiss these events as simple local aberrations, when viewed in an epidemiological paradigm in terms of person, time and space couple with frequency, intensity and fatalities, it could well be an early manifestation of climate change. Global warming poses serious challenge to the health sector and hence warrants emergency health preparedness and response. Climate-sensitive diseases are among the largest global killers, hence major brunt of global climate change in terms of adverse health impact will be mostly borne by poor and developing countries in Asia, given the levels of poverty, nutional levels and poor public health infrastructure.}, }
@article {pmid21636514, year = {2007}, author = {Miller-Rushing, AJ and Katsuki, T and Primack, RB and Ishii, Y and Lee, SD and Higuchi, H}, title = {Impact of global warming on a group of related species and their hybrids: cherry tree (Rosaceae) flowering at Mt. Takao, Japan.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {94}, number = {9}, pages = {1470-1478}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.94.9.1470}, pmid = {21636514}, issn = {0002-9122}, abstract = {Climate change is affecting plant phenology worldwide. Phenological responses vary among species, but it is not clear how responses differ among closely related species. We examined a 25-yr record (1981-2005) of flowering times for 97 trees, representing 17 species and hybrids of cherry (Cerasus sp. or Prunus sp.) grown at Mt. Takao, in Tokyo, Japan. The cherry trees flowered earlier over time, by an average of 5.5 d over the 25-yr study. Earlier flowering was explained largely by a 1.8°C increase in February-March mean monthly temperatures. Most species and hybrids flowered 3-5 d earlier for each 1°C increase in temperature, but early-flowering taxa flowered as much as 9 d earlier for each 1°C increase in temperature. Flowering durations and differences in flowering times among species were greater in warm years than in cold years. Species and individual trees also flowered longer in warm years. These results show that the flowering times of closely related species may change similarly in response to climate change, but that early-flowering species may diverge from the overall trend in a predictable way. Such changes in flowering may affect gene flow and pollination as the length of the flowering season increases.}, }
@article {pmid21938223, year = {2007}, author = {Pandve, H}, title = {Global warming: Need to sensitize general population.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {86-87}, doi = {10.4103/0019-5278.34536}, pmid = {21938223}, issn = {0973-2284}, }
@article {pmid21848352, year = {2007}, author = {Afzal, BM}, title = {Global warming: a public health concern.}, journal = {Online journal of issues in nursing}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {5}, pmid = {21848352}, issn = {1091-3734}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {Over the last 100 years the average temperature on the Earth has risen approximately 1ºFahrenheit (F), increasing at a rate twice as fast as has been noted for any period in the last 1,000 years. The Arctic ice cap is shrinking, glaciers are melting, and the Arctic permafrost is thawing. There is mounting evidence that these global climate changes are already affecting human health. This article provides a brief overview of global warming and climate changes, discusses effects of climate change on health, considers the factors which contribute to climate changes, and reviews individual and collective efforts related to reducing global warming.}, }
@article {pmid21847839, year = {2007}, author = {Dugmore, AJ and Keller, C and McGovern, TH}, title = {Norse Greenland settlement: reflections on climate change, trade, and the contrasting fates of human settlements in the North Atlantic Islands.}, journal = {Arctic anthropology}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {12-36}, doi = {10.1353/arc.2011.0038}, pmid = {21847839}, issn = {0066-6939}, mesh = {Anthropology/education/history ; *Climate Change/economics/history ; *Economics/history ; *Food Supply/economics/history ; Greenland/ethnology ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Population Dynamics/history ; *Population Groups/education/ethnology/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/psychology ; *Residence Characteristics/history ; }, abstract = {Changing economies and patterns of trade, rather than climatic deterioration, could have critically marginalized the Norse Greenland settlements and effectively sealed their fate. Counter-intuitively, the end of Norse Greenland might not be symptomatic of a failure to adapt to environmental change, but a consequence of successful wider economic developments of Norse communities across North Atlantic. Data from Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and medieval Iceland is used to explore the interplay of Norse society with climate, environment, settlement, and other circumstances. Long term increases in vulnerability caused by economic change and cumulative climate changes sparked a cascading collapse of integrated interdependent settlement systems, bringing the end of Norse Greenland.}, }
@article {pmid21642112, year = {2006}, author = {Miller-Rushing, AJ and Primack, RB and Primack, D and Mukunda, S}, title = {Photographs and herbarium specimens as tools to document phenological changes in response to global warming.}, journal = {American journal of botany}, volume = {93}, number = {11}, pages = {1667-1674}, doi = {10.3732/ajb.93.11.1667}, pmid = {21642112}, issn = {0002-9122}, abstract = {Global warming is affecting natural systems across the world. Of the biological responses to warming, changes in the timing of phenological events such as flowering are among the most sensitive. Despite the recognized importance of phenological changes, the limited number of long-term records of phenological events has restricted research on the topic in most areas of the world. In a previous study in Boston (American Journal of Botany 91: 1260-1264), we used herbarium specimens and one season of field observations to show that plants flowered earlier as the climate warmed over the past 100 yr. In our new study, we found that two extra years of data did not strengthen the explanatory power of the analysis. Analysis of herbarium specimens without any field data yielded results similar to analyses that included field observations. In addition, we found that photographs of cultivated and wild plants in Massachusetts, data similar to that contained in herbarium specimens, show changes in flowering times that closely match independent data on the same species in the same locations. Dated photographs of plants in flower represent a new resource to extend the range of species and localities addressed in global-warming research.}, }
@article {pmid20953241, year = {2006}, author = {Coughlin, SS}, title = {Educational intervention approaches to ameliorate adverse public health and environmental effects from global warming.}, journal = {Ethics in science and environmental politics}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {13-14}, pmid = {20953241}, issn = {1863-5415}, support = {R29 HL044904-05/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid21352437, year = {2005}, author = {Wilson, RJ and Gutiérrez, D and Gutiérrez, J and Martínez, D and Agudo, R and Monserrat, VJ}, title = {Changes to the elevational limits and extent of species ranges associated with climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {8}, number = {11}, pages = {1138-1146}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00824.x}, pmid = {21352437}, issn = {1461-023X}, abstract = {The first expected symptoms of a climate change-generated biodiversity crisis are range contractions and extinctions at lower elevational and latitudinal limits to species distributions. However, whilst range expansions at high elevations and latitudes have been widely documented, there has been surprisingly little evidence for contractions at warm margins. We show that lower elevational limits for 16 butterfly species in central Spain have risen on average by 212 m (± SE 60) in 30 years, accompanying a 1.3 °C rise (equivalent to c. 225 m) in mean annual temperature. These elevational shifts signify an average reduction in habitable area by one-third, with losses of 50-80% projected for the coming century, given maintenance of the species thermal associations. The results suggest that many species have already suffered climate-mediated habitat losses that may threaten their long-term chances of survival.}, }
@article {pmid21352449, year = {2005}, author = {Hampe, A and Petit, RJ}, title = {Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {461-467}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00739.x}, pmid = {21352449}, issn = {1461-0248}, abstract = {Modern climate change is producing poleward range shifts of numerous taxa, communities and ecosystems worldwide. The response of species to changing environments is likely to be determined largely by population responses at range margins. In contrast to the expanding edge, the low-latitude limit (rear edge) of species ranges remains understudied, and the critical importance of rear edge populations as long-term stores of species' genetic diversity and foci of speciation has been little acknowledged. We review recent findings from the fossil record, phylogeography and ecology to illustrate that rear edge populations are often disproportionately important for the survival and evolution of biota. Their ecological features, dynamics and conservation requirements differ from those of populations in other parts of the range, and some commonly recommended conservation practices might therefore be of little use or even counterproductive for rear edge populations.}, }
@article {pmid21680495, year = {2004}, author = {Humphries, MM and Umbanhowar, J and McCann, KS}, title = {Bioenergetic prediction of climate change impacts on northern mammals.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {152-162}, doi = {10.1093/icb/44.2.152}, pmid = {21680495}, issn = {1540-7063}, abstract = {Climate change will likely alter the distribution and abundance of northern mammals through a combination of direct, abiotic effects (e.g., changes in temperature and precipitation) and indirect, biotic effects (e.g., changes in the abundance of resources, competitors, and predators). Bioenergetic approaches are ideally suited to predicting the impacts of climate change because individual energy budgets integrate biotic and abiotic influences, and translate individual function into population and community outcomes. In this review, we illustrate how bioenergetics can be used to predict the regional biodiversity, species range limits, and community trophic organization of mammals under future climate scenarios. Although reliable prediction of climate change impacts for particular species requires better data and theory on the physiological ecology of northern mammals, two robust hypotheses emerge from the bioenergetic approaches presented here. First, the impacts of climate change in northern regions will be shaped by the appearance of new species at least as much as by the disappearance of current species. Second, seasonally inactive mammal species (e.g., hibernators), which are largely absent from the Canadian arctic at present, should undergo substantial increases in abundance and distribution in response to climate change, probably at the expense of continuously active mammals already present in the arctic.}, }
@article {pmid21680494, year = {2004}, author = {Berteaux, D and Réale, D and McAdam, AG and Boutin, S}, title = {Keeping pace with fast climate change: can arctic life count on evolution?.}, journal = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {140-151}, doi = {10.1093/icb/44.2.140}, pmid = {21680494}, issn = {1540-7063}, abstract = {Adaptations to the cold and to short growing seasons characterize arctic life, but climate in the Arctic is warming at an unprecedented rate. Will plant and animal populations of the Arctic be able to cope with these drastic changes in environmental conditions? Here we explore the potential contribution of evolution by natural selection to the current response of populations to climate change. We focus on the spring phenology of populations because it is highly responsive to climate change and easy to document across a wide range of species. We show that evolution can be fast and can occur at the time scale of a few decades. We present an example of reproductive phenological change associated with climate change (North American red squirrels in the Yukon), where a detailed analysis of quantitative genetic parameters demonstrates contemporary evolution. We answer a series of frequently asked questions that should help biologists less familiar with evolutionary theory and quantitative genetic methods to think about the role of evolution in current responses of ecological systems to climate change. Our conclusion is that evolution by natural selection is a pertinent force to consider even at the time scale of contemporary climate changes. However, all species may not be equal in their capacity to benefit from contemporary evolution.}, }
@article {pmid21038738, year = {2002}, author = {Endfield, GH and Nash, DJ}, title = {Drought, desiccation and discourse: missionary correspondence and nineteenth-century climate change in central southern Africa.}, journal = {The Geographical journal}, volume = {168}, number = {1}, pages = {33-47}, doi = {10.1111/1475-4959.00036}, pmid = {21038738}, issn = {0016-7398}, mesh = {Africa, Central/ethnology ; Africa, Southern/ethnology ; *Climate Change/economics/history ; *Correspondence as Topic/history ; *Desiccation ; *Droughts/economics/history ; History, 19th Century ; Malnutrition/ethnology/history ; Missionaries ; Observation ; *Religious Missions/economics/history/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/psychology ; Starvation/ethnology/history ; United Kingdom/ethnology ; }, }
@article {pmid20852693, year = {2001}, author = {Derlet, RW}, title = {The impact of global warming and air pollution on patient visits in the emergency department.}, journal = {The California journal of emergency medicine}, volume = {2}, number = {3}, pages = {32-33}, pmid = {20852693}, issn = {1948-3384}, }
@article {pmid21662308, year = {2000}, author = {}, title = {News Briefs: American and British researchers hope to use the untapped power of thousands of desktop computers worldwide to create a more accurate model of global climate change in the coming century.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {34}, number = {23}, pages = {506A}, doi = {10.1021/es0034951}, pmid = {21662308}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21662276, year = {2000}, author = {}, title = {Research Watch: Modeling climate change effects.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {34}, number = {21}, pages = {460A-1A}, doi = {10.1021/es003478b}, pmid = {21662276}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21662079, year = {2000}, author = {}, title = {Government Watch: Regional climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {34}, number = {15}, pages = {333A-5A}, doi = {10.1021/es0033584}, pmid = {21662079}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21662076, year = {2000}, author = {}, title = {Government Watch: Climate change switch.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {34}, number = {15}, pages = {331A}, doi = {10.1021/es003355r}, pmid = {21662076}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21661778, year = {2000}, author = {Betts, KS}, title = {Internet tool reaches beyond politics to address climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {34}, number = {9}, pages = {206A-7A}, doi = {10.1021/es0032428}, pmid = {21661778}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21657580, year = {2000}, author = {}, title = {News Briefs: Increased humidity due to global warming could become a major source of discomfort and stress.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {17A}, doi = {10.1021/es003047t}, pmid = {21657580}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21657577, year = {2000}, author = {}, title = {News Briefs: Global warming might not cause the sea level to rise.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {17A}, doi = {10.1021/es003044g}, pmid = {21657577}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21657514, year = {1999}, author = {Cooney, CM}, title = {Uncertainties linked to water vapor's role in climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {33}, number = {23}, pages = {489A}, doi = {10.1021/es993120j}, pmid = {21657514}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21657455, year = {1999}, author = {Cooney, CM}, title = {Climate: Understanding global water cycle is key to managing climate change, NRC reports.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {33}, number = {21}, pages = {445A}, doi = {10.1021/es9930723}, pmid = {21657455}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21662567, year = {1999}, author = {Bradley, D}, title = {Climate change meeting skirts decisions on emissions trading.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {33}, number = {15}, pages = {308A}, doi = {10.1021/es992929t}, pmid = {21662567}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21662563, year = {1999}, author = {Pelley, J}, title = {Predicted summer water shortages attributed to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {33}, number = {15}, pages = {305A}, doi = {10.1021/es9929133}, pmid = {21662563}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21657344, year = {1999}, author = {}, title = {News Briefs: Climate change does not pose a serious threat to the U.S. insurance industry.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {33}, number = {13}, pages = {273A}, doi = {10.1021/es992869r}, pmid = {21657344}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21657341, year = {1999}, author = {Renner, R}, title = {NASA's flagship satellite will revolutionize study of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {33}, number = {13}, pages = {271A-2A}, doi = {10.1021/es9928677}, pmid = {21657341}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21661829, year = {1999}, author = {}, title = {News Briefs: Microevolutionary changes may be just as important as ecological shifts when assessing species' reactions to global warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {14A}, doi = {10.1021/es9926008}, pmid = {21661829}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21238369, year = {1998}, author = {Laurance, WF}, title = {A crisis in the making: responses of Amazonian forests to land use and climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {411-415}, doi = {10.1016/s0169-5347(98)01433-5}, pmid = {21238369}, issn = {0169-5347}, abstract = {At least three global-change phenomena are having major impacts on Amazonian forests: (1) accelerating deforestation and logging; (2) rapidly changing patterns of forest loss; and (3) interactions between human land-use and climatic variability. Additional alterations caused by climatic change, rising concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, mining, overhunting and other large-scale phenomena could also have important effects on the Amazon ecosystem. Consequently, decisions regarding Amazon forest use in the next decade are crucial to its future existence.}, }
@article {pmid21650886, year = {1998}, author = {Cooney, CM}, title = {Adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {32}, number = {15}, pages = {354A}, doi = {10.1021/es9836444}, pmid = {21650886}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21650940, year = {1998}, author = {Cooney, CM}, title = {Budget: EPA's 1999 budget request highlights climate change, water quality programs.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {32}, number = {7}, pages = {170A}, doi = {10.1021/es9834531}, pmid = {21650940}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21663040, year = {1997}, author = {Morgan, MG and Dowlatabadi, H}, title = {Viewpoint, peer reviewed: energy technology r&amp;d essential to curb global warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {31}, number = {12}, pages = {574A-5A}, doi = {10.1021/es972610d}, pmid = {21663040}, issn = {0013-936X}, }
@article {pmid21238012, year = {1997}, author = {Hayward, TL}, title = {Pacific Ocean climate change: atmospheric forcing, ocean circulation and ecosystem response.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {150-154}, doi = {10.1016/s0169-5347(97)01002-1}, pmid = {21238012}, issn = {0169-5347}, abstract = {A major climate change event that affected atmospheric forcing, ocean circulation and ecosystem structure of the Pacific Ocean began in the mid-1970s. Changes in biomass, and presumably productivity, of the lower trophic levels (phytoplankton and Zooplankton) were directly attributed to this event. It also appears that some individual species at higher trophic levels were influenced, but cause-and-effect relationships are more difficult to document at the species level. Recent work shows that at least five major pelagic ecosystems responded to this event, but in different ways, and both increases and decreases in biomass were seen. Changes of this magnitude are well documented in the paleo-oceanographic record. However, it remains to be determined to what extent the changes were caused by natural cycles versus anthropogenic change (global warming).}, }
@article {pmid21237065, year = {1995}, author = {Bawa, KS and Markham, A}, title = {Climate change and tropical forests.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {348-349}, doi = {10.1016/s0169-5347(00)89130-2}, pmid = {21237065}, issn = {0169-5347}, }
@article {pmid21236196, year = {1993}, author = {Fields, PA and Graham, JB and Rosenblatt, RH and Somero, GN}, title = {Effects of expected global climate change on marine faunas.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {361-367}, doi = {10.1016/0169-5347(93)90220-J}, pmid = {21236196}, issn = {0169-5347}, abstract = {Anthropogenically induced global climate change is likely to have a major impact on marine ecosystems, affecting both biodiversity and productivity. These changes will, in turn, have a large impact on humankind's interactions with the sea. By examining the effects of past climate changes on the ocean, as well as by determining how shifts in physical parameters of the ocean may affect physiology, biochemistry and community interactions, scientists are beginning to explore the possible effects of global climate change on marine biota.}, }
@article {pmid21235945, year = {1992}, author = {Sugden, AM}, title = {Using biotic interactions to forecast the consequences of global climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {35-36}, doi = {10.1016/0169-5347(92)90101-G}, pmid = {21235945}, issn = {0169-5347}, }
@article {pmid21232450, year = {1991}, author = {Glynn, PW}, title = {Coral reef bleaching in the 1980s and possible connections with global warming.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {175-179}, doi = {10.1016/0169-5347(91)90208-F}, pmid = {21232450}, issn = {0169-5347}, abstract = {Scleractinian corals and their symbiotic dinoflagellate algae build massive, wave-resistant coral reefs that are pre-eminent in shallow tropical seas. This mutualism is especially sensitive to numerous environmental stresses, and has been disrupted frequently during the past decade. Increased seawater temperatures have been proposed as the most likely cause of coral reef bleaching, and it has been suggested that the recent large-scale disturbances are the first biological indication of global warming. This article describes recent bleaching events and their possible link with sea warming and other environmental stresses, and offers some speculation on the fate of coral reefs if the Earth enters a sustained period of warming.}, }
@article {pmid21232437, year = {1991}, author = {Jones, DA and Hassan, OT}, title = {Climate change and agriculture.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {101}, doi = {10.1016/0169-5347(91)90186-2}, pmid = {21232437}, issn = {0169-5347}, }
@article {pmid21232434, year = {1991}, author = {Ehleringer, JR and Sage, RF and Flanagan, LB and Pearcy, RW}, title = {Climate change and the evolution of C(4) photosynthesis.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {95-99}, doi = {10.1016/0169-5347(91)90183-X}, pmid = {21232434}, issn = {0169-5347}, abstract = {Plants assimilate carbon by one of three photosynthetic pathways, commonly called the C(3), C(4), and CAM pathways. The C(4) photosynthetic pathway, found only among the angiosperms, represents a modification of C(3) metabolism that is most effective at low concentrations of CO(2). Today, C(4) plants are most common in hot, open ecosystems, and it is commonly felt that they evolved under these conditions. However, high light and high temperature, by themselves, are not sufficient to favor the evolution of C(4) photosynthesis at atmospheric CO(2) levels significantly above the current ambient values. A review of evidence suggests that C(4) plants evolved in response to a reduction in atmospheric CO(2) levels that began during the Cretaceous and continued until the Miocene.}, }
@article {pmid21232381, year = {1990}, author = {Holt, RD}, title = {The microevolutionary consequences of climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {9}, pages = {311-315}, doi = {10.1016/0169-5347(90)90088-U}, pmid = {21232381}, issn = {0169-5347}, abstract = {Species may respond to climate change by shifting in abundance and distribution, by going extinct, or by evolving. Predicting which will occur is difficult. Climate change may lead to alterations in both abiotic and biotic components of selection. Although there is evidence that abundant genetic variation exists in some species which can respond to such selection, other species seem to have little genetic variation for key characters determining distribution and abundance. Moreover, climate change can affect nonselective components of microevolution, such as genetic variances and covariances, and the magnitudes of drift, mutation and gene flow. There is almost no species for which we know enough relevant ecology, physiology and genetics to predict its evolutionary response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21232378, year = {1990}, author = {Williamson, P and Holligan, PM}, title = {Ocean productivity and climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {9}, pages = {299-303}, doi = {10.1016/0169-5347(90)90085-R}, pmid = {21232378}, issn = {0169-5347}, abstract = {Satellite measurements and the development of new techniques have confirmed the importance of ocean biology in controlling the carbon dioxide (CO(2)) content of the atmosphere. The marine sedimentary record shows that climate change and the ocean carbon cycle are closely linked: during glacial periods, marine productivity was enhanced and atmospheric CO(2) levels were reduced. Global warming may have the opposite effect, with reduced uptake of CO(2) exacerbating the problems of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid21232376, year = {1990}, author = {Graham, RW and Grimm, EC}, title = {Effects of global climate change on the patterns of terrestrial biological communities.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {9}, pages = {289-292}, doi = {10.1016/0169-5347(90)90083-P}, pmid = {21232376}, issn = {0169-5347}, abstract = {Recent paleobiological research has shown that late-Quaternary global warming caused individual species distributions to change along environmental gradients in different directions, at different rates, and over different periods. The individualistic responses of the biota created new community patterns. Individualistic changes can be anticipated in the future and if, as predicted, the rate of warming caused by the 'greenhouse effect' is greater than in past events, then the individualistic responses may be even more profound.}, }
@article {pmid21232374, year = {1990}, author = {Spicer, RA and Chapman, JL}, title = {Climate change and the evolution of high-latitude terrestrial vegetation and floras.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {9}, pages = {279-284}, doi = {10.1016/0169-5347(90)90081-N}, pmid = {21232374}, issn = {0169-5347}, abstract = {Our understanding of polar vegetation and climate through time has expanded enormously in the past five years as a consequence of improved logistics, detailed studies of plant fossils in their proper sedimentological context, and the development of sophisticated physiognomic methods for extracting the climate signal present in plant fossil assemblages. These revelations are particularly timely in that climate change is most strongly expressed at the poles, and polar conditions play a critical role in determining global climate. By studying the evolution and change in polar vegetation, valuable insights on possible future biotic responses to global warming can be obtained.}, }
@article {pmid21232371, year = {1990}, author = {Davis, MB}, title = {Biology and paleobiology of global climate change: Introduction.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {5}, number = {9}, pages = {269-270}, doi = {10.1016/0169-5347(90)90078-R}, pmid = {21232371}, issn = {0169-5347}, }
@article {pmid20500754, year = {2010}, author = {Hoffmann, I}, title = {Climate change and the characterization, breeding and conservation of animal genetic resources.}, journal = {Animal genetics}, volume = {41 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {32-46}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2052.2010.02043.x}, pmid = {20500754}, issn = {1365-2052}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Animals, Domestic/*genetics/physiology ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Genetic Variation ; }, abstract = {Livestock production both contributes to and is affected by climate change. In addition to the physiological effects of higher temperatures on individual animals, the consequences of climate change are likely to include increased risk that geographically restricted rare breed populations will be badly affected by disturbances. Indirect effects may be felt via ecosystem changes that alter the distribution of animal diseases or affect the supply of feed. Breeding goals may have to be adjusted to account for higher temperatures, lower quality diets and greater disease challenge. Species and breeds that are well adapted to such conditions may become more widely used. Climate change mitigation strategies, in combination with ever increasing demand for food, may also have an impact on breed and species utilization, driving a shift towards monogastrics and breeds that are efficient converters of feed into meat, milk and eggs. This may lead to the neglect of the adaptation potential of local breeds in developing countries. Given the potential for significant future changes in production conditions and in the objectives of livestock production, it is essential that the value provided by animal genetic diversity is secured. This requires better characterization of breeds, production environments and associated knowledge; the compilation of more complete breed inventories; improved mechanisms to monitor and respond to threats to genetic diversity; more effective in situ and ex situ conservation measures; genetic improvement programmes targeting adaptive traits in high-output and performance traits in locally adapted breeds; increased support for developing countries in their management of animal genetic resources; and wider access to genetic resources and associated knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid20501870, year = {2010}, author = {Kippen, R and McCalman, J and Wiseman, J}, title = {Climate change and population policy: towards a just and transformational approach.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {32}, number = {2}, pages = {161-162}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdq041}, pmid = {20501870}, issn = {1741-3850}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Emigration and Immigration ; *Family Planning Services ; Female ; *Global Health ; Health Policy ; Health Priorities ; Health Services Accessibility ; Humans ; Male ; *Population Dynamics ; *Women's Rights ; }, }
@article {pmid20501869, year = {2010}, author = {Stott, R}, title = {Population and climate change: moving toward gender equality is the key.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {32}, number = {2}, pages = {159-160}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdq040}, pmid = {20501869}, issn = {1741-3850}, mesh = {Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Female ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Male ; *Population Dynamics ; *Women's Rights ; }, }
@article {pmid20501867, year = {2010}, author = {Stephenson, J and Newman, K and Mayhew, S}, title = {Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?.}, journal = {Journal of public health (Oxford, England)}, volume = {32}, number = {2}, pages = {150-156}, doi = {10.1093/pubmed/fdq038}, pmid = {20501867}, issn = {1741-3850}, support = {//Department of Health/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Emigration and Immigration ; Family Planning Services ; Female ; *Global Health ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Male ; *Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.}, }
@article {pmid20499130, year = {2009}, author = {Rosenthal, J}, title = {Climate change and the geographic distribution of infectious diseases.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {489-495}, pmid = {20499130}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/*transmission ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting/methods ; Geography ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Our ability to predict the effects of climate change on the spread of infectious diseases is in its infancy. Numerous, and in some cases conflicting, predictions have been developed, principally based on models of biological processes or mapping of current and historical disease statistics. Current debates on whether climate change, relative to socioeconomic determinants, will be a major influence on human disease distributions are useful to help identify research needs but are probably artificially polarized. We have at least identified many of the critical geophysical constraints, transport opportunities, biotic requirements for some disease systems, and some of the socioeconomic factors that govern the process of migration and establishment of parasites and pathogens. Furthermore, we are beginning to develop a mechanistic understanding of many of these variables at specific sites. Better predictive understanding will emerge in the coming years from analyses regarding how these variables interact with each other.}, }
@article {pmid20497322, year = {2010}, author = {Bell, RC and Parra, JL and Tonione, M and Hoskin, CJ and Mackenzie, JB and Williams, SE and Moritz, C}, title = {Patterns of persistence and isolation indicate resilience to climate change in montane rainforest lizards.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {12}, pages = {2531-2544}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2010.04676.x}, pmid = {20497322}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Cell Nucleus/genetics ; *Climate Change ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Genetic Variation ; Geography ; Lizards/classification/*genetics ; Models, Genetic ; *Phylogeny ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {Globally, montane tropical diversity is characterized by extraordinary local endemism that is not readily explained by current environmental variables indicating a strong imprint of history. Montane species often exist as isolated populations under current climatic conditions and may have remained isolated throughout recent climatic cycles, leading to substantial genetic and phenotypic divergence. Alternatively, populations may have become contiguous during colder climates resulting in less divergence. Here we compare responses to historical climate fluctuation in a montane specialist skink, Lampropholis robertsi, and its more broadly distributed congener, L. coggeri, both endemic to rainforests of northeast Australia. To do so, we combine spatial modelling of potential distributions under representative palaeoclimates, multi-locus phylogeography and analyses of phenotypic variation. Spatial modelling of L. robertsi predicts strong isolation among disjunct montane refugia during warm climates, but with potential for localized exchange during the most recent glacial period. In contrast, predicted stable areas are more widespread and connected in L. coggeri. Both species exhibit pronounced phylogeographic structuring for mitochondrial and nuclear genes, attesting to low dispersal and high persistence across multiple isolated regions. This is most prominent in L. robertsi, for which coalescent analyses indicate that most populations persisted in isolation throughout the climate cycles of the Pleistocene. Morphological divergence, principally in body size, is more evident among isolated populations of L. robertsi than L. coggeri. These results highlight the biodiversity value of isolated montane populations and support the general hypothesis that tropical montane regions harbour high levels of narrow-range taxa because of their resilience to past climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20497201, year = {2010}, author = {Hays, GC and Fossette, S and Katselidis, KA and Schofield, G and Gravenor, MB}, title = {Breeding periodicity for male sea turtles, operational sex ratios, and implications in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {1636-1643}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01531.x}, pmid = {20497201}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Female ; Geography ; Male ; *Periodicity ; Population Dynamics ; Sex Factors ; Sex Ratio ; *Sexual Behavior, Animal ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Species that have temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) often produce highly skewed offspring sex ratios contrary to long-standing theoretical predictions. This ecological enigma has provoked concern that climate change may induce the production of single-sex generations and hence lead to population extirpation. All species of sea turtles exhibit TSD, many are already endangered, and most already produce sex ratios skewed to the sex produced at warmer temperatures (females). We tracked male loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) from Zakynthos, Greece, throughout the entire interval between successive breeding seasons and identified individuals on their breeding grounds, using photoidentification, to determine breeding periodicity and operational sex ratios. Males returned to breed at least twice as frequently as females. We estimated that the hatchling sex ratio of 70:30 female to male for this rookery will translate into an overall operational sex ratio (OSR) (i.e., ratio of total number of males vs females breeding each year) of close to 50:50 female to male. We followed three male turtles for between 10 and 12 months during which time they all traveled back to the breeding grounds. Flipper tagging revealed the proportion of females returning to nest after intervals of 1, 2, 3, and 4 years were 0.21, 0.38, 0.29, and 0.12, respectively (mean interval 2.3 years). A further nine male turtles were tracked for short periods to determine their departure date from the breeding grounds. These departure dates were combined with a photoidentification data set of 165 individuals identified on in-water transect surveys at the start of the breeding season to develop a statistical model of the population dynamics. This model produced a maximum likelihood estimate that males visit the breeding site 2.6 times more often than females (95%CI 2.1, 3.1), which was consistent with the data from satellite tracking and flipper tagging. Increased frequency of male breeding will help ameliorate female-biased hatchling sex ratios. Combined with the ability of males to fertilize the eggs of many females and for females to store sperm to fertilize many clutches, our results imply that effects of climate change on the viability of sea turtle populations are likely to be less acute than previously suspected.}, }
@article {pmid20496657, year = {2010}, author = {Peñuelas, J and Carnicer, J}, title = {Climate change and peak oil: the urgent need for a transition to a non-carbon-emitting society.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {85-90}, pmid = {20496657}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide/*toxicity ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Global Health ; *Green Chemistry Technology ; Humans ; Petroleum/*supply &amp; distribution ; Public Policy ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid20496656, year = {2010}, author = {Nilsson, C and Jansson, R and Keskitalo, EC and Vlassova, T and Sutinen, ML and Moen, J and Chapin, FS}, title = {Challenges to adaptation in northernmost Europe as a result of global climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {81-84}, pmid = {20496656}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Commerce ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Europe ; Finland ; Geography ; Global Health ; Humans ; Norway ; Russia ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Sweden ; }, }
@article {pmid20487086, year = {2010}, author = {Traill, LW and Lim, ML and Sodhi, NS and Bradshaw, CJ}, title = {Mechanisms driving change: altered species interactions and ecosystem function through global warming.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {79}, number = {5}, pages = {937-947}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01695.x}, pmid = {20487086}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Energy Transfer ; *Global Warming ; }, abstract = {1. We review the mechanisms behind ecosystem functions, the processes that facilitate energy transfer along food webs, and the major processes that allow the cycling of carbon, oxygen and nitrogen, and use case studies to show how these have already been, and will continue to be, altered by global warming. 2. Increased temperatures will affect the interactions between heterotrophs and autotrophs (e.g. pollination and seed dispersal), and between heterotrophs (e.g. predators-prey, parasites/pathogens-hosts), with generally negative ramifications for important ecosystem services (functions that provide direct benefit to human society such as pollination) and potential for heightened species co-extinction rates. 3. Mitigation of likely impacts of warming will require, in particular, the maintenance of species diversity as insurance for the provision of basic ecosystem services. Key to this will be long-term monitoring and focused research that seek to maintain ecosystem resilience in the face of global warming. 4. We provide guidelines for pursuing research that quantifies the nexus between ecosystem function and global warming. These include documentation of key functional species groups within systems, and understanding the principal outcomes arising from direct and indirect effects of a rapidly warming environment. Localized and targeted research and monitoring, complemented with laboratory work, will determine outcomes for resilience and guide adaptive conservation responses and long-term planning.}, }
@article {pmid20486310, year = {2010}, author = {Cullen, E}, title = {Lyme disease and climate change.}, journal = {Irish medical journal}, volume = {103}, number = {4}, pages = {101-102}, pmid = {20486310}, issn = {0332-3102}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; Ireland/epidemiology ; Lyme Disease/*epidemiology ; Temperature ; Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid20485434, year = {2010}, author = {Gething, PW and Smith, DL and Patil, AP and Tatem, AJ and Snow, RW and Hay, SI}, title = {Climate change and the global malaria recession.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {465}, number = {7296}, pages = {342-345}, pmid = {20485434}, issn = {1476-4687}, support = {079080/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 079091/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Health ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Malaria, Falciparum/*epidemiology/mortality/parasitology/*prevention &amp; control ; Plasmodium falciparum/pathogenicity/physiology ; Public Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest. The proposed effects of rising global temperatures on the future spread and intensification of the disease, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates, substantively influence global health policy. The contemporary spatial limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity within this range, when compared with comparable historical maps, offer unique insights into the changing global epidemiology of malaria over the last century. It has long been known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control. Here, for the first time, we quantify this contraction and the global decreases in malaria endemicity since approximately 1900. We compare the magnitude of these changes to the size of effects on malaria endemicity proposed under future climate scenarios and associated with widely used public health interventions. Our findings have two key and often ignored implications with respect to climate change and malaria. First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.}, }
@article {pmid20483994, year = {2010}, author = {McMichael, AJ and Dear, KB}, title = {Climate change: heat, health, and longer horizons.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {21}, pages = {9483-9484}, pmid = {20483994}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid20466932, year = {2010}, author = {Sinervo, B and Méndez-de-la-Cruz, F and Miles, DB and Heulin, B and Bastiaans, E and Villagrán-Santa Cruz, M and Lara-Resendiz, R and Martínez-Méndez, N and Calderón-Espinosa, ML and Meza-Lázaro, RN and Gadsden, H and Avila, LJ and Morando, M and De la Riva, IJ and Victoriano Sepulveda, P and Rocha, CF and Ibargüengoytía, N and Aguilar Puntriano, C and Massot, M and Lepetz, V and Oksanen, TA and Chapple, DG and Bauer, AM and Branch, WR and Clobert, J and Sites, JW}, title = {Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {328}, number = {5980}, pages = {894-899}, doi = {10.1126/science.1184695}, pmid = {20466932}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; Body Temperature ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Female ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Global Warming ; *Lizards/genetics/physiology ; Male ; Mexico ; Models, Biological ; Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Selection, Genetic ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20464187, year = {2010}, author = {Boxall, A and Hardy, A and Beulke, S and Boucard, T and Burgin, L and Falloon, P and Haygarth, P and Hutchinson, T and Kovats, S and Leonardi, G and Levy, L and Nichols, G and Parsons, S and Potts, L and Stone, D and Topp, E and Turley, D and Walsh, K and Wellington, E and Williams, R}, title = {Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture.}, journal = {Ciencia &amp; saude coletiva}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {743-756}, doi = {10.1590/s1413-81232010000300017}, pmid = {20464187}, issn = {1678-4561}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Air Microbiology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; Humans ; United Kingdom ; *Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens/ chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. We assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems in the UK and discuss the effects on health impacts, using expert input and literature on climate change; health effects from exposure to pathogens/chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals/pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems. We established the evidence base for health effects of chemicals/pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical/pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of various contaminants. We merged data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems, and defined recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage adverse increases in risks.}, }
@article {pmid20462133, year = {2010}, author = {van de Pol, M and Vindenes, Y and Saether, BE and Engen, S and Ens, BJ and Oosterbeek, K and Tinbergen, JM}, title = {Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {4}, pages = {1192-1204}, doi = {10.1890/09-0410.1}, pmid = {20462133}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Charadriiformes/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Longevity ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the effect of changes in mean and variance of winter temperature on different vital rates across the life cycle. Subsequently, we quantify, using stochastic stage-structured models, how changes in the mean and variance of this environmental variable affect important characteristics of the future population dynamics, such as the time to extinction. Local mean winter temperature is predicted to strongly increase, and we show that this is likely to increase the population's persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that higher temperatures have on fecundity. Interannual variation in winter temperature is predicted to decrease, which is also likely to increase persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that lower temperature variability has on fecundity. Overall, a 0.1 degrees C change in mean temperature is predicted to alter median time to extinction by 1.5 times as many years as would a 0.1 degrees C change in the standard deviation in temperature, suggesting that the dynamics of oystercatchers are more sensitive to changes in the mean than in the interannual variability of this climatic variable. Moreover, as climate models predict larger changes in the mean than in the standard deviation of local winter temperature, the effects of future climatic variability on this population's time to extinction are expected to be overwhelmed by the effects of changes in climatic means. We discuss the mechanisms by which climatic variability can either increase or decrease population viability and how this might depend both on species' life histories and on the vital rates affected. This study illustrates that, for making reliable inferences about population consequences in species in which life history changes with age or stage, it is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on vital rates across the entire life cycle. Disturbingly, such data are unavailable for most species of conservation concern.}, }
@article {pmid20462009, year = {2010}, author = {Yao, YB and Wang, RY and Deng, ZY and Han, SL and Xing, TQ}, title = {[Effects of climate change on potato growth in semi-arid region of Loess Plateau, China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {379-385}, pmid = {20462009}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Altitude ; China ; *Climate Change ; *Droughts ; Solanum tuberosum/*growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1988-2008 located observation and 2007-2008 encrypted observation of potato growth and the 1957-2008 meteorological observation in semi-arid region of Loess Plateau, this paper studied the effects of climate change on the potato growth in this region. In 1957-2008, the annual precipitation in this region had a descending trend, with a linear fitting rate of the annual precipitation change curves being - 13.359 mm x (10 a)(-1), while the annual mean temperature displayed an ascending trend, with a linear fitting rate of the annual mean temperature change curves being 0.239 degrees C x (10 a)(-1). During potato growth period, the aridity index displayed a marked ascending trend, and the linear fitting rate of the aridity index change curves was 0.102 x (10 a)(-1). The growth rate of potato tuber became faster from the 96th day after sowing, reached the maximum on the 110th day, and turned slower from the 124th day. The interval from sowing to seedling emergence was shortened by 1-2 d x (10 a)(-1), and that from inflorescence formation to reaping and of whole growth period was lengthened by 9-10 d x (10 a) (-1). In the study region, climate warming shortened the vegetative growth stage, but lengthened the reproductive growth stage and whole growth period of potato.}, }
@article {pmid20461963, year = {2010}, author = {D'Amato, G and Cecchi, L and D'Amato, M and Liccardi, G}, title = {Urban air pollution and climate change as environmental risk factors of respiratory allergy: an update.}, journal = {Journal of investigational allergology &amp; clinical immunology}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {95-102; quiz following 102}, pmid = {20461963}, issn = {1018-9068}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects/classification ; Allergens/immunology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects/classification ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Italy ; Respiratory Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology/etiology/immunology/physiopathology ; Respiratory Mucosa/immunology ; Risk Factors ; *Urban Population ; }, abstract = {The incidence of allergic respiratory diseases and bronchial asthma appears to be increasing worldwide, and people living in urban areas more frequently experience these conditions than those living in rural areas. One of the several causes of the rise in morbidity associated with allergic respiratory diseases is the increased presence of outdoor air pollutants resulting from more intense energy consumption and exhaust emissions from cars and other vehicles. Urban air pollution is now a serious public health hazard. Laboratory studies confirm epidemiologic evidence that air pollution adversely affects lung function in asthmatics. Damage to airway mucous membranes and impaired mucociliary clearance caused by air pollution may facilitate access of inhaled allergens to the cells of the immune system, thus promoting sensitization of the airway. Consequently, a more severe immunoglobulin (Ig) E-mediated response to aeroallergens and airway inflammation could account for increasing prevalence of allergic respiratory diseases in polluted urban areas. The most abundant components of urban air pollution in urban areas with high levels of vehicle traffic are airborne particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, and ozone. In addition, the earth's temperature is increasing, mainly as a result of anthropogenic factors (e.g., fossil fuel combustion and greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply, transport, industry, and agriculture), and climate change alters the concentration and distribution of air pollutants and interferes with the seasonal presence of allergenic pollens in the atmosphere by prolonging these periods.}, }
@article {pmid20461416, year = {2011}, author = {Maloney, SK and Forbes, CF}, title = {What effect will a few degrees of climate change have on human heat balance? Implications for human activity.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {147-160}, pmid = {20461416}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Humans ; *Leisure Activities ; *Models, Biological ; Motor Activity/*physiology ; Sweating/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {While many factors affecting human health that will alter with climate change are being discussed, there has been no discussion about how a warmer future will affect man's thermoregulation. Using historical climate data for an Australian city and projections for Australia's climate in 2070, we address the issue using heat balance modelling for humans engaged in various levels of activity from rest to manual labour. We first validate two heat balance models against empirical data and then use the models to predict the number of days at present and in 2070 that (1) sweating will be required to attain heat balance, (2) heat balance will not be possible and hyperthermia will develop, and (3) body temperature will increase by 2.5°C in less than 2 h, which we term "dangerous days". The modelling is applied to people in an unacclimatised and an acclimatised state. The modelling shows that, for unacclimatised people, outdoor activity will not be possible on 33-45 days per year, compared to 4-6 days per year at present. For acclimatised people the situation is less dire but leisure activity like golf will be not be possible on 5-14 days per year compared to 1 day in 5 years at present, and manual labour will be dangerous to perform on 15-26 days per year compared to 1 day per year at present. It is obvious that climate change will have important consequences for leisure, economic activity, and health in Australia.}, }
@article {pmid20454473, year = {2009}, author = {Ramin, B}, title = {Slums, climate change and human health in sub-Saharan Africa.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {87}, number = {12}, pages = {886}, pmid = {20454473}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; *Climate Change ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; *Poverty Areas ; }, }
@article {pmid20454451, year = {2010}, author = {Morueta-Holme, N and Fløjgaard, C and Svenning, JC}, title = {Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {e10360}, pmid = {20454451}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Endangered Species ; Europe ; Extinction, Biological ; Greenhouse Effect ; Mammals ; Population Density ; Risk ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species.<br><br>We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20453198, year = {2010}, author = {Palm, CA and Smukler, SM and Sullivan, CC and Mutuo, PK and Nyadzi, GI and Walsh, MG}, title = {Identifying potential synergies and trade-offs for meeting food security and climate change objectives in sub-Saharan Africa.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {46}, pages = {19661-19666}, pmid = {20453198}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; Agriculture/*methods ; Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Footprint ; *Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Global Warming ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Zea mays/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Potential interactions between food production and climate mitigation are explored for two situations in sub-Saharan Africa, where deforestation and land degradation overlap with hunger and poverty. Three agriculture intensification scenarios for supplying nitrogen to increase crop production (mineral fertilizer, herbaceous legume cover crops--green manures--and agroforestry--legume improved tree fallows) are compared to baseline food production, land requirements to meet basic caloric requirements, and greenhouse gas emissions. At low population densities and high land availability, food security and climate mitigation goals are met with all intensification scenarios, resulting in surplus crop area for reforestation. In contrast, for high population density and small farm sizes, attaining food security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions require mineral fertilizers to make land available for reforestation; green manure or improved tree fallows do not provide sufficient increases in yields to permit reforestation. Tree fallows sequester significant carbon on cropland, but green manures result in net carbon dioxide equivalent emissions because of nitrogen additions. Although these results are encouraging, agricultural intensification in sub-Saharan Africa with mineral fertilizers, green manures, or improved tree fallows will remain low without policies that address access, costs, and lack of incentives. Carbon financing for small-holder agriculture could increase the likelihood of success of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries programs and climate change mitigation but also promote food security in the region.}, }
@article {pmid20451147, year = {2010}, author = {Schwartz, SA}, title = {Trends that will affect your future ... the denier movements critique evolution, climate change, and nonlocal consciousness.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {135-142}, doi = {10.1016/j.explore.2010.03.005}, pmid = {20451147}, issn = {1878-7541}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; Climate Change ; *Consciousness ; *Denial, Psychological ; Humans ; Parapsychology/*trends ; Research/standards ; Science/trends ; }, abstract = {The SchwartzReport tracks emerging trends that will affect the world, particularly the United States. For EXPLORE, it focuses on matters of health in the broadest sense of that term, including medical issues, changes in the biosphere, technology, and policy considerations, all of which will shape our culture and our lives.}, }
@article {pmid20448167, year = {2010}, author = {Gleick, PH and Adams, RM and Amasino, RM and Anders, E and Anderson, DJ and Anderson, WW and Anselin, LE and Arroyo, MK and Asfaw, B and Ayala, FJ and Bax, A and Bebbington, AJ and Bell, G and Bennett, MV and Bennetzen, JL and Berenbaum, MR and Berlin, OB and Bjorkman, PJ and Blackburn, E and Blamont, JE and Botchan, MR and Boyer, JS and Boyle, EA and Branton, D and Briggs, SP and Briggs, WR and Brill, WJ and Britten, RJ and Broecker, WS and Brown, JH and Brown, PO and Brunger, AT and Cairns, J and Canfield, DE and Carpenter, SR and Carrington, JC and Cashmore, AR and Castilla, JC and Cazenave, A and Chapin, FS and Ciechanover, AJ and Clapham, DE and Clark, WC and Clayton, RN and Coe, MD and Conwell, EM and Cowling, EB and Cowling, RM and Cox, CS and Croteau, RB and Crothers, DM and Crutzen, PJ and Daily, GC and Dalrymple, GB and Dangl, JL and Darst, SA and Davies, DR and Davis, MB and De Camilli, PV and Dean, C and DeFries, RS and Deisenhofer, J and Delmer, DP and DeLong, EF and DeRosier, DJ and Diener, TO and Dirzo, R and Dixon, JE and Donoghue, MJ and Doolittle, RF and Dunne, T and Ehrlich, PR and Eisenstadt, SN and Eisner, T and Emanuel, KA and Englander, SW and Ernst, WG and Falkowski, PG and Feher, G and Ferejohn, JA and Fersht, A and Fischer, EH and Fischer, R and Flannery, KV and Frank, J and Frey, PA and Fridovich, I and Frieden, C and Futuyma, DJ and Gardner, WR and Garrett, CJ and Gilbert, W and Goldberg, RB and Goodenough, WH and Goodman, CS and Goodman, M and Greengard, P and Hake, S and Hammel, G and Hanson, S and Harrison, SC and Hart, SR and Hartl, DL and Haselkorn, R and Hawkes, K and Hayes, JM and Hille, B and Hökfelt, T and House, JS and Hout, M and Hunten, DM and Izquierdo, IA and Jagendorf, AT and Janzen, DH and Jeanloz, R and Jencks, CS and Jury, WA and Kaback, HR and Kailath, T and Kay, P and Kay, SA and Kennedy, D and Kerr, A and Kessler, RC and Khush, GS and Kieffer, SW and Kirch, PV and Kirk, K and Kivelson, MG and Klinman, JP and Klug, A and Knopoff, L and Kornberg, H and Kutzbach, JE and Lagarias, JC and Lambeck, K and Landy, A and Langmuir, CH and Larkins, BA and Le Pichon, XT and Lenski, RE and Leopold, EB and Levin, SA and Levitt, M and Likens, GE and Lippincott-Schwartz, J and Lorand, L and Lovejoy, CO and Lynch, M and Mabogunje, AL and Malone, TF and Manabe, S and Marcus, J and Massey, DS and McWilliams, JC and Medina, E and Melosh, HJ and Meltzer, DJ and Michener, CD and Miles, EL and Mooney, HA and Moore, PB and Morel, FM and Mosley-Thompson, ES and Moss, B and Munk, WH and Myers, N and Nair, GB and Nathans, J and Nester, EW and Nicoll, RA and Novick, RP and O'Connell, JF and Olsen, PE and Opdyke, ND and Oster, GF and Ostrom, E and Pace, NR and Paine, RT and Palmiter, RD and Pedlosky, J and Petsko, GA and Pettengill, GH and Philander, SG and Piperno, DR and Pollard, TD and Price, PB and Reichard, PA and Reskin, BF and Ricklefs, RE and Rivest, RL and Roberts, JD and Romney, AK and Rossmann, MG and Russell, DW and Rutter, WJ and Sabloff, JA and Sagdeev, RZ and Sahlins, MD and Salmond, A and Sanes, JR and Schekman, R and Schellnhuber, J and Schindler, DW and Schmitt, J and Schneider, SH and Schramm, VL and Sederoff, RR and Shatz, CJ and Sherman, F and Sidman, RL and Sieh, K and Simons, EL and Singer, BH and Singer, MF and Skyrms, B and Sleep, NH and Smith, BD and Snyder, SH and Sokal, RR and Spencer, CS and Steitz, TA and Strier, KB and Südhof, TC and Taylor, SS and Terborgh, J and Thomas, DH and Thompson, LG and Tjian, RT and Turner, MG and Uyeda, S and Valentine, JW and Valentine, JS and Van Etten, JL and van Holde, KE and Vaughan, M and Verba, S and von Hippel, PH and Wake, DB and Walker, A and Walker, JE and Watson, EB and Watson, PJ and Weigel, D and Wessler, SR and West-Eberhard, MJ and White, TD and Wilson, WJ and Wolfenden, RV and Wood, JA and Woodwell, GM and Wright, HE and Wu, C and Wunsch, C and Zoback, ML}, title = {Climate change and the integrity of science.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {328}, number = {5979}, pages = {689-690}, doi = {10.1126/science.328.5979.689}, pmid = {20448167}, issn = {1095-9203}, support = {BBS/E/J/00000581/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; Z99 HD999999/ImNIH/Intramural NIH HHS/United States ; /HHMI/Howard Hughes Medical Institute/United States ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Politics ; Public Policy ; Research/standards ; Research Personnel ; }, }
@article {pmid20447661, year = {2010}, author = {Ateweberhan, M and McClanahan, TR}, title = {Relationship between historical sea-surface temperature variability and climate change-induced coral mortality in the western Indian Ocean.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {60}, number = {7}, pages = {964-970}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2010.03.033}, pmid = {20447661}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Global Warming ; Indian Ocean ; Mortality ; Population Dynamics ; *Seawater ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Many of the world's coral reefs suffered high coral mortality during the 1998 ENSO, with the highest mortality in the western Indian Ocean (WIO). A meta-analysis of field data on change in coral cover across the 1998 ENSO event was conducted for 36 major reef areas in the WIO, and relationship of the change with the historical sea-surface temperature (SST) variability investigated. WIO reefs were categorized into three major SST groups of differing coral cover change. Cover change was negatively associated with standard deviation (SD) SST until about SD 2.3, with increasing flatness of the SST frequency distributions. It increased with further increase in SD as the SST distributions became strongly bimodal in the Arabian/Persian Gulf area. The study indicates that environmental resistance/tolerance to extreme anomalous events could be predicted and management priorities directed accordingly for a warmer and more variable future climate.}, }
@article {pmid20445914, year = {2010}, author = {Bravo, I and Díaz-de-Mera, Y and Aranda, A and Smith, K and Shine, KP and Marston, G}, title = {Atmospheric chemistry of C4F9OC2H5 (HFE-7200), C4F9OCH3 (HFE-7100), C3F7OCH3 (HFE-7000) and C3F7CH2OH: temperature dependence of the kinetics of their reactions with OH radicals, atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials.}, journal = {Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP}, volume = {12}, number = {19}, pages = {5115-5125}, doi = {10.1039/b923092k}, pmid = {20445914}, issn = {1463-9084}, abstract = {The atmospheric chemistry of several gases used in industrial applications, C(4)F(9)OC(2)H(5) (HFE-7200), C(4)F(9)OCH(3) (HFE-7100), C(3)F(7)OCH(3) (HFE-7000) and C(3)F(7)CH(2)OH, has been studied. The discharge flow technique coupled with mass-spectrometric detection has been used to study the kinetics of their reactions with OH radicals as a function of temperature. The infrared spectra of the compounds have also been measured. The following Arrhenius expressions for the reactions were determined (in units of cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)): k(OH + HFE-7200) = (6.9(-1.7)(+2.3)) x 10(-11) exp(-(2030 +/- 190)/T); k(OH + HFE-7100) = (2.8(-1.5)(+3.2)) x 10(-11) exp(-(2200 +/- 490)/T); k(OH + HFE-7000) = (2.0(-0.7)(+1.2)) x 10(-11) exp(-(2130 +/- 290)/T); and k(OH + C(3)F(7)CH(2)OH) = (1.4(-0.2)(+0.3)) x 10(-11) exp(-(1460 +/- 120)/T). From the infrared spectra, radiative forcing efficiencies were determined and compared with earlier estimates in the literature. These were combined with the kinetic data to estimate 100-year time horizon global warming potentials relative to CO(2) of 69, 337, 499 and 36 for HFE-7200, HFE-7100, HFE-7000 and CF(3)CF(2)CF(2)CH(2)OH, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid20445083, year = {2010}, author = {Cao, L and Bala, G and Caldeira, K and Nemani, R and Ban-Weiss, G}, title = {Importance of carbon dioxide physiological forcing to future climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {21}, pages = {9513-9518}, pmid = {20445083}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Humidity ; Plants/metabolism ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration influences climate both directly through its radiative effect (i.e., trapping longwave radiation) and indirectly through its physiological effect (i.e., reducing transpiration of land plants). Here we compare the climate response to radiative and physiological effects of increased CO(2) using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled Community Land and Community Atmosphere Model. In response to a doubling of CO(2), the radiative effect of CO(2) causes mean surface air temperature over land to increase by 2.86 +/- 0.02 K (+/- 1 standard error), whereas the physiological effects of CO(2) on land plants alone causes air temperature over land to increase by 0.42 +/- 0.02 K. Combined, these two effects cause a land surface warming of 3.33 +/- 0.03 K. The radiative effect of doubling CO(2) increases global runoff by 5.2 +/- 0.6%, primarily by increasing precipitation over the continents. The physiological effect increases runoff by 8.4 +/- 0.6%, primarily by diminishing evapotranspiration from the continents. Combined, these two effects cause a 14.9 +/- 0.7% increase in runoff. Relative humidity remains roughly constant in response to CO(2)-radiative forcing, whereas relative humidity over land decreases in response to CO(2)-physiological forcing as a result of reduced plant transpiration. Our study points to an emerging consensus that the physiological effects of increasing atmospheric CO(2) on land plants will increase global warming beyond that caused by the radiative effects of CO(2).}, }
@article {pmid20442835, year = {2009}, author = {Pandve, HT and Fernandez, K and Singru, SA and Chawla, PS}, title = {Climate change and the threat of deadly dozen.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {154}, pmid = {20442835}, issn = {1998-3670}, }
@article {pmid20439769, year = {2010}, author = {Sherwood, SC and Huber, M}, title = {An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {21}, pages = {9552-9555}, pmid = {20439769}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature T(W), is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. T(W) never exceeds 31 degrees C. Any exceedence of 35 degrees C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 degrees C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11-12 degrees C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 degrees C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record.}, }
@article {pmid20439762, year = {2010}, author = {Bera, PP and Francisco, JS and Lee, TJ}, title = {Design strategies to minimize the radiative efficiency of global warming molecules.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {20}, pages = {9049-9054}, pmid = {20439762}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Absorption ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Carbon/chemistry ; Fluorocarbons/*chemistry ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Oxygen/chemistry ; *Radiation ; Vibration ; }, abstract = {A strategy is devised to screen molecules based on their radiative efficiency. The methodology should be useful as one additional constraint when determining the best molecule to use for an industrial application. The strategy is based on the results of a recent study where we examined molecular properties of global warming molecules using ab initio electronic structure methods to determine which fundamental molecular properties are important in assessing the radiative efficiency of a molecule. Six classes of perfluorinated compounds are investigated. For similar numbers of fluorine atoms, their absorption of radiation in the IR window decreases according to perfluoroethers > perfluorothioethers approximately sulfur/carbon compounds > perfluorocarbons > perfluoroolefins > carbon/nitrogen compounds. Perfluoroethers and hydrofluorethers are shown to possess a large absorption in the IR window due to (i) the C horizontal line O bonds are very polar, (ii) the C-O stretches fall within the IR window and have large IR intensity due to their polarity, and (iii) the IR intensity for C-F stretches in which the fluorine atom is bonded to the carbon that is bonded to the oxygen atom is enhanced due to a larger C horizontal line F bond polarity. Lengthening the carbon chain leads to a larger overall absorption in the IR window, though the IR intensity per bond is smaller. Finally, for a class of partially fluorinated compounds with a set number of electronegative atoms, the overall absorption in the IR window can vary significantly, as much as a factor of 2, depending on how the fluorine atoms are distributed within the molecule.}, }
@article {pmid20439712, year = {2010}, author = {Ramanathan, V and Xu, Y}, title = {The Copenhagen Accord for limiting global warming: criteria, constraints, and available avenues.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {18}, pages = {8055-8062}, pmid = {20439712}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/standards ; Denmark ; *Global Warming ; *Green Chemistry Technology ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {At last, all the major emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have agreed under the Copenhagen Accord that global average temperature increase should be kept below 2 degrees C. This study develops the criteria for limiting the warming below 2 degrees C, identifies the constraints imposed on policy makers, and explores available mitigation avenues. One important criterion is that the radiant energy added by human activities should not exceed 2.5 (range: 1.7-4) watts per square meter (Wm(-2)) of the Earth's surface. The blanket of man-made GHGs has already added 3 (range: 2.6-3.5) Wm(-2). Even if GHG emissions peak in 2015, the radiant energy barrier will be exceeded by 100%, requiring simultaneous pursuit of three avenues: (i) reduce the rate of thickening of the blanket by stabilizing CO(2) concentration below 441 ppm during this century (a massive decarbonization of the energy sector is necessary to accomplish this Herculean task), (ii) ensure that air pollution laws that reduce the masking effect of cooling aerosols be made radiant energy-neutral by reductions in black carbon and ozone, and (iii) thin the blanket by reducing emissions of short-lived GHGs. Methane and hydrofluorocarbons emerge as the prime targets. These actions, even if we are restricted to available technologies for avenues ii and iii, can reduce the probability of exceeding the 2 degrees C barrier before 2050 to less than 10%, and before 2100 to less than 50%. With such actions, the four decades we have until 2050 should be exploited to develop and scale-up revolutionary technologies to restrict the warming to less than 1.5 degrees C.}, }
@article {pmid20435552, year = {2010}, author = {Parham, PE and Michael, E}, title = {Modeling the effects of weather and climate change on malaria transmission.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {118}, number = {5}, pages = {620-626}, pmid = {20435552}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {R01 AI069387/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI069387-01A1/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles/parasitology ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/parasitology ; Malaria/*transmission ; Malaria, Falciparum/transmission ; Malaria, Vivax/transmission ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Tanzania ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In recent years, the impact of climate change on human health has attracted considerable attention; the effects on malaria have been of particular interest because of its disease burden and its transmission sensitivity to environmental conditions.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We investigated and illustrated the role that dynamic process-based mathematical models can play in providing strategic insights into the effects of climate change on malaria transmission.<br><br>METHODS: We evaluated a relatively simple model that permitted valuable and novel insights into the simultaneous effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito population dynamics, malaria invasion, persistence and local seasonal extinction, and the impact of seasonality on transmission. We illustrated how large-scale climate simulations and infectious disease systems may be modeled and analyzed and how these methods may be applied to predicting changes in the basic reproduction number of malaria across Tanzania.<br><br>RESULTS: We found extinction to be more strongly dependent on rainfall than on temperature and identified a temperature window of around 32-33 degrees C where endemic transmission and the rate of spread in disease-free regions is optimized. This window was the same for Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax, but mosquito density played a stronger role in driving the rate of malaria spread than did the Plasmodium species. The results improved our understanding of how temperature shifts affect the global distribution of at-risk regions, as well as how rapidly malaria outbreaks take off within vulnerable populations.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Disease emergence, extinction, and transmission all depend strongly on climate. Mathematical models offer powerful tools for understanding geographic shifts in incidence as climate changes. Nonlinear dependences of transmission on climate necessitates consideration of both changing climate trends and variability across time scales of interest.}, }
@article {pmid20429949, year = {2010}, author = {Bell, EJ}, title = {Climate change: what competencies and which medical education and training approaches?.}, journal = {BMC medical education}, volume = {10}, number = {}, pages = {31}, pmid = {20429949}, issn = {1472-6920}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Clinical Competence ; *Curriculum ; Delivery of Health Care/organization &amp; administration ; Education, Medical, Graduate/methods ; Education, Medical, Undergraduate/*methods ; Faculty, Medical ; Global Health ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Literacy ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Public Policy ; Rural Population ; Students, Medical ; Teaching ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Much research has been devoted to identifying healthcare needs in a climate-changing world. However, while there are now global and national policy statements about the importance of health workforce development for climate change, little has been published about what competencies might be demanded of practitioners in a climate-changing world. In such a context, this debate and discussion paper aims to explore the nature of key competencies and related opportunities for teaching climate change in medical education and training. Particular emphasis is made on preparation for practice in rural and remote regions likely to be greatly affected by climate change.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The paper describes what kinds of competencies for climate change might be included in medical education and training. It explores which curricula, teaching, learning and assessment approaches might be involved. Rather than arguing for major changes to medical education and training, this paper explores well established precedents to offer practical suggestions for where a particular kind of literacy--eco-medical literacy--and related competencies could be naturally integrated into existing elements of medical education and training.<br><br>SUMMARY: The health effects of climate change have, generally, not yet been integrated into medical education and training systems. However, the necessary competencies could be taught by building on existing models, best practice and innovative traditions in medicine. Even in crowded curricula, climate change offers an opportunity to reinforce and extend understandings of how interactions between people and place affect health.}, }
@article {pmid20429551, year = {2010}, author = {Feng, K and Hubacek, K and Guan, D and Contestabile, M and Minx, J and Barrett, J}, title = {Distributional effects of climate change taxation: the case of the UK.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {10}, pages = {3670-3676}, doi = {10.1021/es902974g}, pmid = {20429551}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; *Taxes ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Current economic instruments aimed at climate change mitigation focus mainly on CO(2) emissions, but efficient climate mitigation needs to focus on other greenhouse gases as well as CO(2). This study investigates the distributional effects of climate change taxes on households belonging to different income and lifestyle groups; and it compares the effects of a CO(2) tax with a multiple GHG tax in the UK in terms of cost efficiency and distributional effects. Results show that a multi GHG tax is more efficient than a CO(2) tax due to lower marginal abatement costs, and that both taxes are regressive, with lower income households paying a relatively larger share of their income for the taxes than higher income households. A shift from a CO(2) tax to a GHG tax will reduce and shift the tax burden between consumption categories such as from energy-intensive products to food products. Consumers have different abilities to respond to the tax and change their behavior due to their own socio-economic attributes as well as the physical environment such as the age of the housing stock, location, and the availability of infrastructure. The housing-related carbon emissions are the largest component of the CO(2) tax payments for low income groups and arguments could be made for compensation of income losses and reduction of fuel poverty through further government intervention.}, }
@article {pmid20428377, year = {2010}, author = {Kumaresan, J and Sathiakumar, N}, title = {Climate change and its potential impact on health: a call for integrated action.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {88}, number = {3}, pages = {163}, doi = {10.2471/BLT.10.076034}, pmid = {20428377}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; *Policy Making ; }, }
@article {pmid20426350, year = {2010}, author = {Epstein, P}, title = {The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases: comment.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {3}, pages = {925-8; discussion 928-9}, doi = {10.1890/09-0761.1}, pmid = {20426350}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid20426335, year = {2010}, author = {Kardol, P and Cregger, MA and Campany, CE and Classen, AT}, title = {Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {91}, number = {3}, pages = {767-781}, doi = {10.1890/09-0135.1}, pmid = {20426335}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Bacteria/enzymology ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Enzymes/chemistry/metabolism ; Fungi/enzymology ; Nematoda/physiology ; Plants/*classification ; Soil/*analysis ; *Soil Microbiology ; Time Factors ; Water ; }, abstract = {Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric and climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the soil communities that depend on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and precipitation in Tennessee (USA). Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils) and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: (1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activity, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate-change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in our study, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water. (2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning, and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate-change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. These results indicate that accurate assessments of climate-change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate-change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct impact of atmospheric and climate change on soil ecosystem functioning, and hence, these indirect effects should be taken into account when predicting the manner in which global change will alter ecosystem functioning.}, }
@article {pmid20424839, year = {2010}, author = {Prato, T}, title = {Sustaining ecological integrity with respect to climate change: a fuzzy adaptive management approach.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {45}, number = {6}, pages = {1344-1351}, pmid = {20424839}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecology ; *Fuzzy Logic ; }, abstract = {A fuzzy adaptive management framework is proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of an ecosystem to losing ecological integrity as a result of climate change in an historical period (ex post evaluation) and selecting the best compensatory management action for reducing potential adverse impacts of future climate change on ecological integrity in a future period (ex ante evaluation). The ex post evaluation uses fuzzy logic to test hypotheses about the extent of past ecosystem vulnerability to losing ecological integrity and the ex ante evaluation uses the fuzzy minimax regret criterion to determine the best compensatory management action for alleviating potential adverse impacts of climate change on ecosystem vulnerability to losing ecological integrity in a future period. The framework accounts for uncertainty regarding: (1) the relationship between ecosystem vulnerability to losing ecological integrity and ecosystem resilience; (2) the relationship between ecosystem resilience and the extent to which observed indicators of ecological integrity depart from their thresholds; (3) the extent of future climate change; and (4) the potential impacts of future climate change on ecological integrity and ecosystem resilience. The adaptive management element of the framework involves using the ex post and ex ante evaluations iteratively in consecutive time segments of the future time period to determine if and when it is beneficial to adjust compensatory management actions to climate change. A constructed example is used to demonstrate the framework.}, }
@article {pmid20422252, year = {2010}, author = {Laaksonen, S and Pusenius, J and Kumpula, J and Venäläinen, A and Kortet, R and Oksanen, A and Hoberg, E}, title = {Climate change promotes the emergence of serious disease outbreaks of filarioid nematodes.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {7-13}, pmid = {20422252}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/parasitology/transmission/*veterinary ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Vectors ; *Ecosystem ; Host-Parasite Interactions/*physiology ; Nematoda/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Nematode Infections/parasitology/transmission/*veterinary ; Reindeer ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Filarioid parasites represent major health hazards with important medical, veterinary, and economic implications, and considerable potential to affect the everyday lives of tens of millions of people globally (World Health Organization, 2007). Scenarios for climate change vary latitudinally and regionally and involve direct and indirect linkages for increasing temperature and the dissemination, amplification, and invasiveness of vector-borne parasites. High latitude regions are especially influenced by global climate change and thus may be prone to altered associations and dynamics for complex host-pathogen assemblages and emergence of disease with cascading effects on ecosystem structure. Although the potential for substantial ecological perturbation has been identified, few empirical observations have emanated from systems across the Holarctic. Coincidental with decades of warming, and anomalies of high temperature and humidity in the sub-Arctic region of Fennoscandia, the mosquito-borne filarioid nematode Setaria tundra is now associated with emerging epidemic disease resulting in substantial morbidity and mortality for reindeer and moose. We describe a host-parasite system that involves reindeer, arthropods, and nematodes, which may contribute as a factor to ongoing declines documented for this ungulate species across northern ecosystems. We demonstrate that mean summer temperatures exceeding 14 degrees C drive the emergence of disease due to S. tundra. An association between climate and emergence of filarioid parasites is a challenge to ecosystem services with direct effects on public health, sustainability of free-ranging and domestic ungulates, and ultimately food security for subsistence cultures at high latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid20418570, year = {2009}, author = {Clementi, ML and Terracini, B}, title = {[Good editorial policies for climate change and public health].}, journal = {Epidemiologia e prevenzione}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {201}, pmid = {20418570}, issn = {1120-9763}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Editorial Policies ; Epidemiology ; Humans ; Periodicals as Topic ; Preventive Medicine ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid20417206, year = {2010}, author = {Holmner, A and Mackenzie, A and Krengel, U}, title = {Molecular basis of cholera blood-group dependence and implications for a world characterized by climate change.}, journal = {FEBS letters}, volume = {584}, number = {12}, pages = {2548-2555}, doi = {10.1016/j.febslet.2010.03.050}, pmid = {20417206}, issn = {1873-3468}, mesh = {ABO Blood-Group System/chemistry ; *Blood Group Antigens ; Cholera/*blood/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Cholera Toxin/chemistry/toxicity ; Climate Change ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Models, Molecular ; }, abstract = {Climate change has the potential to increase the threat of water-borne diseases, through rises in temperature and sea-level, and precipitation variability. Cholera poses a particular threat, and the need to develop better intervention tools is imminent. Cholera infections are particularly severe for blood group O individuals, who are less protected by the current vaccines. Here we derive a hypothesis as to the molecular origins of blood-group dependence of this disease, based on relevant epidemiological, clinical and molecular data, and give suggestions on how to plan prevention strategies, and develop novel and improved pharmaceuticals.}, }
@article {pmid20416059, year = {2010}, author = {Tonnang, HE and Kangalawe, RY and Yanda, PZ}, title = {Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {9}, number = {}, pages = {111}, pmid = {20416059}, issn = {1475-2875}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; Animals ; Anopheles/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Forecasting ; Geographic Information Systems ; Greenhouse Effect ; Insect Vectors/*growth &amp; development ; Malaria/*transmission ; *Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa.<br><br>METHODS: The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI). The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios.<br><br>RESULTS: These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria vectors control programmes in Africa.}, }
@article {pmid20413481, year = {2010}, author = {Wahl, ER and Morrill, C}, title = {Climate change. Toward understanding and predicting monsoon patterns.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {328}, number = {5977}, pages = {437-438}, doi = {10.1126/science.1188926}, pmid = {20413481}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20410317, year = {2010}, author = {Soussana, JF and Graux, AI and Tubiello, FN}, title = {Improving the use of modelling for projections of climate change impacts on crops and pastures.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {61}, number = {8}, pages = {2217-2228}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erq100}, pmid = {20410317}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural/chemistry/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Models, Theoretical ; Poaceae/*chemistry/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Projections of climate change impacts on global food supply are largely based on crop and pasture modelling. The consistency of these models with experimental data and their ability to simulate the effects of elevated CO(2) and of increased climate variability has been debated. The effects of high temperatures, of increased climate variability and of several limiting factors which interact with elevated CO(2) such as soil nutrients, pests and weeds are neither fully understood nor well implemented in leading models. Targeted model developments will be required based on experimental data concerning: (i) the role of extreme climatic events, (ii) the interactions between abiotic factors and elevated CO(2), (iii) the genetic variability in plant CO(2) and temperature responses, (iv) the interactions with biotic factors, and (v) the effects on harvest quality. To help make better use of the available knowledge, it is envisioned that future crop and pasture modelling studies will need to use a risk assessment approach by combining an ensemble of greenhouse gas emission (or stabilization) scenarios, of regional climate models and of crop and pasture models, as well as an ensemble of adaptation options concerning both management practices and species/varieties.}, }
@article {pmid20406403, year = {2010}, author = {Morin, X and Roy, J and Sonié, L and Chuine, I}, title = {Changes in leaf phenology of three European oak species in response to experimental climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {186}, number = {4}, pages = {900-910}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03252.x}, pmid = {20406403}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Air ; Analysis of Variance ; Cellular Senescence ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Hot Temperature ; Models, Biological ; Plant Leaves/anatomy &amp; histology/cytology/*physiology ; Quercus/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Rain ; Seasons ; Soil/analysis ; Water/analysis ; }, abstract = {*Because the phenology of trees is strongly driven by environmental factors such as temperature, climate change has already altered the vegetative and reproductive phenology of many species, especially in the temperate zone. Here, we aimed to determine whether projected levels of warming for the upcoming decades will lead to linear changes in the phenology of trees or to more complex responses. *We report the results of a 3-yr common garden experiment designed to study the phenological response to artificial climate change, obtained through experimental warming and reduced precipitation, of several populations of three European oaks, two deciduous species (Quercus robur, Quercus pubescens) and one evergreen species (Quercus ilex), in a Mediterranean site. *Experimental warming advanced the seedlings' vegetative phenology, causing a longer growing season and higher mortality. However, the rate of advancement of leaf unfolding date was decreased with increasing temperature. Conversely, soil water content did not affect the phenology of the seedlings or their survival. *Our results show that the phenological response of trees to climate change may be nonlinear, and suggest that predictions of phenological changes in the future should not be built on extrapolations of current observed trends.}, }
@article {pmid20406383, year = {2010}, author = {Banks, SC and Ling, SD and Johnson, CR and Piggott, MP and Williamson, JE and Beheregaray, LB}, title = {Genetic structure of a recent climate change-driven range extension.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {2011-2024}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2010.04627.x}, pmid = {20406383}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Evolution, Molecular ; Founder Effect ; *Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; Linear Models ; Linkage Disequilibrium ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Models, Genetic ; Population Dynamics ; Regression Analysis ; Sea Urchins/classification/*genetics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The life-history strategies of some species make them strong candidates for rapid exploitation of novel habitat under new climate regimes. Some early-responding species may be considered invasive, and negatively impact on 'naïve' ecosystems. The barrens-forming sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii is one such species, having a high dispersal capability and a high-latitude range margin limited only by a developmental temperature threshold. Within this species' range in eastern Australian waters, sea temperatures have increased at greater than double the global average rate. The coinciding poleward range extension of C. rodgersii has caused major ecological changes, threatening reef biodiversity and fisheries productivity. We investigated microsatellite diversity and population structure associated with range expansion by this species. Generalized linear model analyses revealed no reduction in genetic diversity in the newly colonized region. A 'seascape genetics' analysis of genetic distances found no spatial genetic structure associated with the range extension. The distinctive genetic characteristic of the extension zone populations was reduced population-specific F(ST), consistent with very rapid population expansion. Demographic and genetic simulations support our inference of high connectivity between pre- and post-extension zones. Thus, the range shift appears to be a poleward extension of the highly-connected rangewide population of C. rodgersii. This is consistent with advection of larvae by the intensified warm water East Australian current, which has also increased Tasmanian Sea temperatures above the species' lower developmental threshold. Thus, ocean circulation changes have improved the climatic suitability of novel habitat for C. rodgersii and provided the supply of recruits necessary for colonization.}, }
@article {pmid20405806, year = {2010}, author = {Tabor, K and Williams, JW}, title = {Globally downscaled climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {554-565}, doi = {10.1890/09-0173.1}, pmid = {20405806}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Assessing the potential impacts of 21st-century climate change on species distributions and ecological processes requires climate scenarios with sufficient spatial resolution to represent the varying effects of climate change across heterogeneous physical, biological, and cultural landscapes. Unfortunately, the native resolutions of global climate models (usually approximately 2 degrees x 2 degrees or coarser) are inadequate for modeling future changes in, e.g., biodiversity, species distributions, crop yields, and water resources. Also, 21st-century climate projections must be debiased prior to use, i.e., corrected for systematic offsets between modeled representations and observations of present climates. We have downscaled future temperature and precipitation projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) CMIP3 multi-model data set to 10-minute resolution and debiased these simulations using the change-factor approach and observational data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). These downscaled data sets are available online and include monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, for 24 climate models and the A1B, A2, and B1 emission scenarios. This paper describes the downscaling method and compares the downscaled and native-resolution simulations. Sharp differences between the original and downscaled data sets are apparent at regional to continental scales, particularly for temperature in mountainous areas and in areas with substantial differences between observed and simulated 20th-century climatologies. Although these data sets in principle could be downscaled further, a key practical limitation is the density of observational networks, particularly for precipitation-related variables in tropical mountainous regions. These downscaled data sets can be used for a variety of climate-impact assessments, including assessments of 21st-century climate-change impacts on biodiversity and species distributions.}, }
@article {pmid20405791, year = {2010}, author = {Ravenscroft, C and Scheller, RM and Mladenoff, DJ and White, MA}, title = {Forest restoration in a mixed-ownership landscape under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {327-346}, doi = {10.1890/08-1698.1}, pmid = {20405791}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Population Dynamics ; *Trees ; United States ; }, abstract = {The extent to which current landscapes deviate from the historical range of natural variability (RNV) is a common means of defining and ranking regional conservation targets. However, climate-induced shifts in forest composition may render obsolete restoration strategies and conservation targets based on historic climate conditions and disturbance regimes. We used a spatially explicit forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate the interaction of climate change and forest management in northeastern Minnesota, USA. We assessed the relevance of restoration strategies and conservation targets based on the RNV in the context of future climate change. Three climate scenarios (no climate change, low emissions, and high emissions) were simulated with three forest management scenarios: no harvest, current management, and a restoration-based approach where harvest activity mimicked the frequency, severity, and size distribution of historic natural disturbance regimes. Under climate change there was a trend toward homogenization of forest conditions due to the widespread expansion of systems dominated by maple (Acer spp.). White spruce (Picea glauca), balsam fir (Abies balsamea), and paper birch (Betula papyrifera) were extirpated from the landscape irrespective of management activity; additional losses of black spruce (P. mariana), red pine (Pinus resinosa), and jack pine (P. banksiana) were projected in the high-emissions scenario. In the restoration management scenario, retention and conversion to white pine (P. strobus) restricted maple expansion. But, widespread forest loss in the restoration scenario under high-emissions projections illustrates the potential pitfalls of implementing an RNV management approach in a system that is not compositionally similar to the historic reference condition. Given the uncertainty associated with climate change, ensuring a diversity of species and conditions within forested landscapes may be the most effective means of ensuring the future resistance of ecosystems to climate-induced declines in productivity.}, }
@article {pmid20405299, year = {2011}, author = {Goodenough, AE and Hart, AG and Elliot, SL}, title = {What prevents phenological adjustment to climate change in migrant bird species? Evidence against the "arrival constraint" hypothesis.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {55}, number = {1}, pages = {97-102}, pmid = {20405299}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Birds/classification/*physiology ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Germany ; Netherlands ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Phenological studies have demonstrated changes in the timing of seasonal events across multiple taxonomic groups as the climate warms. Some northern European migrant bird populations, however, show little or no significant change in breeding phenology, resulting in synchrony with key food sources becoming mismatched. This phenological inertia has often been ascribed to migration constraints (i.e. arrival date at breeding grounds preventing earlier laying). This has been based primarily on research in The Netherlands and Germany where time between arrival and breeding is short (often as few as 9 days). Here, we test the arrival constraint hypothesis over a 15-year period for a U.K. pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population where laying date is not constrained by arrival as the period between arrival and breeding is substantial and consistent (average 27 ± 4.57 days SD). Despite increasing spring temperatures and quantifiably stronger selection for early laying on the basis of number of offspring to fledge, we found no significant change in breeding phenology, in contrast with co-occurring resident blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus). We discuss possible non-migratory constraints on phenological adjustment, including limitations on plasticity, genetic constraints and competition, as well as the possibility of counter-selection pressures relating to adult survival, longevity or future reproductive success. We propose that such factors need to be considered in conjunction with the arrival constraint hypothesis.}, }
@article {pmid20404189, year = {2010}, author = {Costello, CJ and Neubert, MG and Polasky, SA and Solow, AR}, title = {Bounded uncertainty and climate change economics.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {18}, pages = {8108-8110}, pmid = {20404189}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {It has been argued recently that the combination of risk aversion and an uncertainty distribution of future temperature change with a heavy upper tail invalidates mainstream economic analyses of climate change policy. A simple model is used to explore the effect of imposing an upper bound on future temperature change. The analysis shows that imposing even a high bound reverses the earlier argument and that the optimal policy, as measured by the willingness to pay to avoid climate change, is relatively insensitive to this bound over a wide range.}, }
@article {pmid20403837, year = {2010}, author = {Keiler, M and Knight, J and Harrison, S}, title = {Climate change and geomorphological hazards in the eastern European Alps.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {368}, number = {1919}, pages = {2461-2479}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0047}, pmid = {20403837}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {Climate and environmental changes associated with anthropogenic global warming are being increasingly identified in the European Alps, as seen by changes in long-term high-alpine temperature, precipitation, glacier cover and permafrost. In turn, these changes impact on land-surface stability, and lead to increased frequency and magnitude of natural mountain hazards, including rock falls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and floods. These hazards also impact on infrastructure, and socio-economic and cultural activities in mountain regions. This paper presents two case studies (2003 heatwave, 2005 floods) that demonstrate some of the interlinkages between physical processes and human activity in climatically sensitive alpine regions that are responding to ongoing climate change. Based on this evidence, we outline future implications of climate change on mountain environments and its impact on hazards and hazard management in paraglacial mountain systems.}, }
@article {pmid20403822, year = {2010}, author = {Kistin, EJ and Fogarty, J and Pokrasso, RS and McCally, M and McCornick, PG}, title = {Climate change, water resources and child health.}, journal = {Archives of disease in childhood}, volume = {95}, number = {7}, pages = {545-549}, doi = {10.1136/adc.2009.175307}, pmid = {20403822}, issn = {1468-2044}, mesh = {Child ; Child Welfare/*trends ; *Climate Change ; Emigration and Immigration ; Food Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Health ; Humans ; Sanitation/standards ; Water Supply/*standards ; }, abstract = {Climate change is occurring and has tremendous consequences for children's health worldwide. This article describes how the rise in temperature, precipitation, droughts, floods, glacier melt and sea levels resulting from human-induced climate change is affecting the quantity, quality and flow of water resources worldwide and impacting child health through dangerous effects on water supply and sanitation, food production and human migration. It argues that paediatricians and healthcare professionals have a critical leadership role to play in motivating and sustaining efforts for policy change and programme implementation at the local, national and international level.}, }
@article {pmid20400576, year = {2010}, author = {Liebig, MA and Gross, JR and Kronberg, SL and Phillips, RL and Hanson, JD}, title = {Grazing management contributions to net global warming potential: a long-term evaluation in the Northern Great Plains.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {39}, number = {3}, pages = {799-809}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2009.0272}, pmid = {20400576}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {*Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; Carbon/chemistry/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry/metabolism ; *Cattle ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Methanol/chemistry/metabolism ; Nitrogen/chemistry/metabolism ; Nitrous Oxide/chemistry/metabolism ; Poaceae ; Rain ; Soil/analysis ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The role of grassland ecosystems as net sinks or sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is limited by a paucity of information regarding management impacts on the flux of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and methane (CH(4)). Furthermore, no long-term evaluation of net global warming potential (GWP) for grassland ecosystems in the northern Great Plains (NGP) of North America has been reported. Given this need, we sought to determine net GWP for three grazing management systems located within the NGP. Grazing management systems included two native vegetation pastures (moderately grazed pasture [MGP], heavily grazed pasture [HGP]) and a heavily grazed crested wheatgrass [Agropyron desertorum (Fisch. ex. Link) Schult.] pasture (CWP) near Mandan, ND. Factors evaluated for their contribution to GWP included (i) CO(2) emissions associated with N fertilizer production and application, (ii) literature-derived estimates of CH(4) production for enteric fermentation, (iii) change in soil organic carbon (SOC) over 44 yr using archived soil samples, and (iv) soil-atmosphere N(2)O and CH(4) fluxes over 3 yr using static chamber methodology. Analysis of SOC indicated all pastures to be significant sinks for SOC, with sequestration rates ranging from 0.39 to 0.46 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1). All pastures were minor sinks for CH(4) (<2.0 kg CH(4)-C ha(-1) yr(-1)). Greater N inputs within CWP contributed to annual N(2)O emission nearly threefold greater than HGP and MGP. Due to differences in stocking rate, CH(4) production from enteric fermentation was nearly threefold less in MGP than CWP and HGP. When factors contributing to net GWP were summed, HGP and MGP were found to serve as net CO(2equiv.) sinks, while CWP was a net CO(2equiv.) source. Values for GWP and GHG intensity, however, indicated net reductions in GHG emissions can be most effectively achieved through moderate stocking rates on native vegetation in the NGP.}, }
@article {pmid20398079, year = {2010}, author = {Horton, G and Hanna, L and Kelly, B}, title = {Drought, drying and climate change: emerging health issues for ageing Australians in rural areas.}, journal = {Australasian journal on ageing}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {2-7}, doi = {10.1111/j.1741-6612.2010.00424.x}, pmid = {20398079}, issn = {1741-6612}, mesh = {*Aging ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Health Services Accessibility ; Humans ; Needs Assessment ; Risk Factors ; *Rural Health ; *Rural Population ; }, abstract = {Older Australians living in rural areas have long faced significant challenges in maintaining health. Their circumstances are shaped by the occupations, lifestyles, environments and remoteness which characterise the diversity of rural communities. Many rural regions face threats to future sustainability and greater proportions of the aged reside in these areas. The emerging changes in Australia's climate over the past decade may be considered indicative of future trends, and herald amplification of these familiar challenges for rural communities. Such climate changes are likely to exacerbate existing health risks and compromise community infrastructure in some instances. This paper discusses climate change-related health risks facing older people in rural areas, with an emphasis on the impact of heat, drought and drying on rural and remote regions. Adaptive health sector responses are identified to promote mitigation of this substantial emerging need as individuals and their communities experience the projected impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20396409, year = {2009}, author = {Adrian, R and O'Reilly, CM and Zagarese, H and Baines, SB and Hessen, DO and Keller, W and Livingstone, DM and Sommaruga, R and Straile, D and Van Donk, E and Weyhenmeyer, GA and Winder, M}, title = {Lakes as sentinels of climate change.}, journal = {Limnology and oceanography}, volume = {54}, number = {6}, pages = {2283-2297}, pmid = {20396409}, issn = {0024-3590}, support = {P 19245/FWF_/Austrian Science Fund FWF/Austria ; }, abstract = {While there is a general sense that lakes can act as sentinels of climate change, their efficacy has not been thoroughly analyzed. We identified the key response variables within a lake that act as indicators of the effects of climate change on both the lake and the catchment. These variables reflect a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate. However, the efficacy of the different indicators is affected by regional response to climate change, characteristics of the catchment, and lake mixing regimes. Thus, particular indicators or combinations of indicators are more effective for different lake types and geographic regions. The extraction of climate signals can be further complicated by the influence of other environmental changes, such as eutrophication or acidification, and the equivalent reverse phenomena, in addition to other land-use influences. In many cases, however, confounding factors can be addressed through analytical tools such as detrending or filtering. Lakes are effective sentinels for climate change because they are sensitive to climate, respond rapidly to change, and integrate information about changes in the catchment.}, }
@article {pmid20395501, year = {2010}, author = {Trenberth, KE and Fasullo, JT}, title = {Climate change. Tracking Earth's energy.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {328}, number = {5976}, pages = {316-317}, doi = {10.1126/science.1187272}, pmid = {20395501}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20393859, year = {2010}, author = {Du, J and Yan, P and Dong, Y and Han, F}, title = {Phenological response of Nitraria tangutorum to climate change in Minqin County, Gansu Province, northwest China.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {54}, number = {5}, pages = {583-593}, pmid = {20393859}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Ferns/*growth &amp; development ; Geography ; Humidity ; *Models, Biological ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Phenological data and the corresponding meteorological data are collected from the Minqin Desert Botanical Garden. Variations of phenological periods of N. tangutorum (a drought-resistant shrub) are analyzed, and correlations between the starting dates of all phenological periods and the corresponding precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity are discussed. Our conclusions suggest that the growing season of N. tangutorum has been extended by 18.3 days during 1975-2007, which has a significant correlation with yearly average temperatures. Starting and ending dates and duration time of budding period all display no apparent change, while starting date of the remaining spring phenophases shows an advance, and the ending date shows a delay. The duration time of these phenophases shows an apparent increase overall. However, the starting and ending dates of autumn's phenological events all show a delay, and no clear trend is observed in duration time. Average short-term precipitation, temperature and relative humidity have an apparent influence on the starting date of most phenophases. However, no influences by average long-term precipitation, temperature and relative humidity were observed. The phenological variations of N. tangutorum have a great influence on its growth and reproduction, which will affect efforts to prevent desertification in the Minqin County.}, }
@article {pmid20392517, year = {2010}, author = {Gilman, SE and Urban, MC and Tewksbury, J and Gilchrist, GW and Holt, RD}, title = {A framework for community interactions under climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {325-331}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2010.03.002}, pmid = {20392517}, issn = {0169-5347}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Human Activities ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Predicting the impacts of climate change on species is one of the biggest challenges that ecologists face. Predictions routinely focus on the direct effects of climate change on individual species, yet interactions between species can strongly influence how climate change affects organisms at every scale by altering their individual fitness, geographic ranges and the structure and dynamics of their community. Failure to incorporate these interactions limits the ability to predict responses of species to climate change. We propose a framework based on ideas from global-change biology, community ecology, and invasion biology that uses community modules to assess how species interactions shape responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20389200, year = {2010}, author = {Keim, ME}, title = {Sea-level-rise disaster in Micronesia: sentinel event for climate change?.}, journal = {Disaster medicine and public health preparedness}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {81-87}, doi = {10.1017/s1935789300002469}, pmid = {20389200}, issn = {1938-744X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; *Disasters ; Environmental Health ; Family Characteristics ; *Floods ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Micronesia ; Oceans and Seas ; Risk ; Sentinel Surveillance ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To describe the impact of an acute-onset sea-level-rise disaster in 2 coral atoll populations and to generate hypotheses for further investigation of the association between climate change and public health.<br><br>METHODS: Households of Lukunoch and Oneop islands, Micronesia, were assessed for demographics, asset damage, food availability, water quantity and quality, hygiene and sanitation, and health status. Every fourth household on Lukunoch was randomly selected (n = 40). All Oneop households were surveyed (n = 72). Heads of each household were interviewed in the local language using a standard survey tool. Prevalence data were analyzed, and 95% confidence intervals were calculated.<br><br>RESULTS: A total of 112 total households were respondents representing 974 inhabitants. On Lukunoch, roughly half of all households surveyed reported at least a partial loss of their primary dietary staple and source of calories (taro and breadfruit). Six (15%) of 40 Lukunoch households surveyed (95% CI, 6%-30%) reported a complete loss of taro and four (10%) of the 40 households (95% CI, 3%-24%) reported a complete loss of breadfruit. On Oneop, nearly all households reported at least a partial loss of these same food staples. Twenty four (31%) of all 76 Oneop households reported a complete loss of taro and another 24 (31%) households reported a complete loss of breadfruit. One third of all households surveyed reported a complete loss. On Lukunoch 11 (28%) of 40 households, (95% CI, 15%-43%) reported damage from salination, but none were damaged to the point of a complete loss. Forty-nine (64%) of 76 Oneop households reported salination and five (6%) reported complete loss of their well.<br><br>CONCLUSION: On March 5, 2007, an acute-onset, sea level rise event resulting in coastal erosion, shoreline inundation, and saltwater intrusion occurred in two coral atoll islands of Micronesia. The findings of this study suggest that highly vulnerable populations of both islands experienced disastrous losses involving crop productivity and freshwater sources. These findings reveal the need for effective public health research and sustainable interventions that will monitor and shape the health of small island populations predicted to be at high risk for adverse health effects due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20388994, year = {2010}, author = {Park, MJ and Park, JY and Shin, HJ and Lee, MS and Park, GA and Jung, IK and Kim, SJ}, title = {Projection of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution loads for a forest dominant dam watershed by reflecting future vegetation canopy in a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {61}, number = {8}, pages = {1975-1986}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2010.109}, pmid = {20388994}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Models, Biological ; *Plants ; Republic of Korea ; *Water Pollution ; }, abstract = {This study is to assess the future impact of climate change on hydrological behavior considering future vegetation canopy prediction and its propagation to nonpoint source pollution (NPS) loads. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used for the assessment. For a forest dominant ChungjuDam watershed of South Korea, the MIROC3.2hires climate data of SRES A1B and B1 scenarios were adopted and downscaled for the watershed. The future vegetation canopy information was projected by the monthly relationship between Terra MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) LAI (Leaf Area Index) and temperature. The future predicted LAI increased up to 1.9 in 2080s April and October because of the temperature increase 3.6 degrees C and 5.3 degrees C respectively. By reflecting the future LAI changes, the future estimated percent changes of maximum annual dam inflow, SS, T-N, and T-P were + 42.5% in 2080s A1B,-35.6% in 2020s A1B,+73.7% in 2080s A1B and-21.0% in 2080s B1 scenario respectively. The increase of T-N load was from the increase of subsurface lateral flows and the groundwater recharges by the future rainfall increase. The decrease of T-P load was by decrease of sediment load during wet days because the effect of LAI increase is greater than the increase of rainfall.}, }
@article {pmid20388261, year = {2010}, author = {Kwon, TS and Kim, SS and Chun, JH and Byun, BK and Lim, JH and Shin, JH}, title = {Changes in butterfly abundance in response to global warming and reforestation.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {39}, number = {2}, pages = {337-345}, doi = {10.1603/EN09184}, pmid = {20388261}, issn = {1938-2936}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Butterflies ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Global Warming ; Republic of Korea ; }, abstract = {In the Republic of Korea, most denuded forest lands have been restored since the 1960s. In addition, the annual mean temperature in the Republic of Korea has increased approximately 1.0 degrees C during the last century, which is higher than the global mean increase of 0.74 degrees C. Such rapid environmental changes may have resulted in changes in the local butterfly fauna. For example, the number of butterflies inhabiting forests may have increased because of reforestation, whereas the number of butterflies inhabiting grasslands may have declined. Furthermore, the number of northern butterflies may have declined, whereas the number of southern butterflies may have increased in response to global warming. Therefore, we compared current data (2002 approximately 2007) regarding the abundance of butterfly species at two sites in the central portion of the Korean Peninsula to data from the late 1950s and early 1970s for the same sites. Changes in the abundance rank of each species between the two periods were evaluated to determine whether any patterns corresponded to the predicted temporal changes. The predicted changes in butterfly abundance were confirmed in this study. In addition, the results showed a different response to habitat change between northern and southern species. In northern butterfly species, butterflies inhabiting forests increased, whereas those inhabiting grasslands declined. However, the opposite was true when southern butterfly species were evaluated. Changes in the abundance indicate that habitat change may be one of the key factors related to the survival of populations that remain around the southern boundary of butterfly species.}, }
@article {pmid20388258, year = {2010}, author = {Laws, AN and Belovsky, GE}, title = {How will species respond to climate change? Examining the effects of temperature and population density on an herbivorous insect.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {39}, number = {2}, pages = {312-319}, doi = {10.1603/EN09294}, pmid = {20388258}, issn = {1938-2936}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; *Competitive Behavior ; Female ; Fertility ; Grasshoppers/*physiology ; Male ; Poaceae/chemistry ; Population Density ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {An important challenge facing ecologists is to understand how climate change may affect species performance and species interactions. However, predicting how changes in abiotic variables associated with climate change may affect species performance also depends on the biotic context, which can mediate species responses to climatic change. We conducted a 3-yr field experiment to determine how the herbivorous grasshopper Camnula pellucida (Scudder) responds to manipulations of temperature and population density. Grasshopper survival and fecundity decreased with density, indicating the importance of intraspecific competition. Female fecundity tended to increase with temperature, whereas grasshopper survival exhibited a unimodal response to temperature, with highest survival at intermediate temperatures. Grasshopper performance responses to temperature also depended on density. Peak survival in the low-density treatment occurred in warmer conditions than for the high-density treatment, indicating that the intensity of intraspecific competition varies with temperature. Our data show that changes to the temperature regimen can alter grasshopper performance and determine the intensity of intraspecific competition. However, the effects of temperature on grasshopper performance varied with density. Our data indicate the importance of the biotic context in mediating species responses to climatic factors associated with global change.}, }
@article {pmid20386630, year = {2009}, author = {Pandve, HT and Deshmukh, PR and Pandve, RT and Patil, NR}, title = {Role of youth in combating climate change.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {105}, pmid = {20386630}, issn = {1998-3670}, }
@article {pmid20383706, year = {2010}, author = {Bardsley, DK and Sweeney, SM}, title = {Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {1127-1141}, pmid = {20383706}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods/trends ; Decision Making ; Desert Climate ; Planning Techniques ; Policy Making ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Management ; South Australia ; }, abstract = {Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.}, }
@article {pmid20378780, year = {2010}, author = {Enserink, M}, title = {Climate change. Scientists ask minister to disavow predecessor's book.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {328}, number = {5975}, pages = {151}, doi = {10.1126/science.328.5975.151}, pmid = {20378780}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20376141, year = {2010}, author = {Del Grosso, SJ}, title = {Climate change: Grazing and nitrous oxide.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {464}, number = {7290}, pages = {843-844}, pmid = {20376141}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Animal Husbandry/methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Animals ; Animals, Domestic/*metabolism ; China ; Desert Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Freezing ; Greenhouse Effect ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis/*metabolism ; Plants/metabolism ; Poaceae/metabolism ; Seasons ; Snow ; Soil/analysis ; *Soil Microbiology ; Water/analysis/metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid20375475, year = {2010}, author = {Carrière, A and Prévost, M and Zamyadi, A and Chevalier, P and Barbeau, B}, title = {Vulnerability of Quebec drinking-water treatment plants to cyanotoxins in a climate change context.}, journal = {Journal of water and health}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {455-465}, doi = {10.2166/wh.2009.207}, pmid = {20375475}, issn = {1477-8920}, mesh = {Bacterial Toxins/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Cyanobacteria/*pathogenicity ; Cyanobacteria Toxins ; Marine Toxins ; Microcystins ; Public Health ; Quebec ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Water Purification/*methods ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Cyanobacteria are a growing concern in the province of Quebec due to recent highly publicised bloom episodes. The health risk associated with the consumption of drinking water coming from contaminated sources was unknown. A study was undertaken to evaluate treatment plants' capacity to treat cyanotoxins below the maximum recommended concentrations of 1.5 microg/L microcystin-LR (MC-LR) and the provisional concentration of 3.7 microg/L anatoxin-a, respectively. The results showed that close to 80% of the water treatment plants are presently able to treat the maximum historical concentration measured in Quebec (5.35 microg/L MC-LR equ.). An increase, due to climate change or other factors, would not represent a serious threat because chlorine, the most popular disinfectant, is effective in treating MC-LR under standard disinfection conditions. The highest concentration of anatoxin-a (2.3 microg/L) measured in natural water thus far in source water is below the current guideline for treated waters. However, higher concentrations of anatoxin-a would represent a significant challenge for the water industry as chlorine is not an efficient treatment option. The use of ozone, potassium permanganate or powder activated carbon would have to be considered.}, }
@article {pmid20367760, year = {2011}, author = {Hosking, J and Jones, R and Percival, T and Turner, N and Ameratunga, S}, title = {Climate change: the implications for child health in Australasia.}, journal = {Journal of paediatrics and child health}, volume = {47}, number = {8}, pages = {493-496}, doi = {10.1111/j.1440-1754.2010.01699.x}, pmid = {20367760}, issn = {1440-1754}, mesh = {Asia ; Australia ; Child ; *Child Welfare ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Health/*methods ; Health Policy ; Health Promotion ; Humans ; Interprofessional Relations ; }, abstract = {Children are particularly vulnerable to the health effects of climate change, the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. However, the worst effects on child health can be avoided, and well-designed climate policies can have important benefits for child health and equity. We call on child health professionals to seize opportunities to prevent climate change, improve child health and reduce inequalities, and suggest useful actions that can be taken.}, }
@article {pmid20361328, year = {2010}, author = {Mukheibir, P}, title = {Water access, water scarcity, and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {45}, number = {5}, pages = {1027-1039}, pmid = {20361328}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods ; Environment ; Policy Making ; Water Supply/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*standards ; }, abstract = {This article investigates the approaches of the various discourses operating in the water sector and how they address the issues of scarcity and equitable access under projected climate change impacts. Little synergy exists between the different approaches dealing with these issues. Whilst being a sustainable development and water resources management issue, a holistic view of access, scarcity and the projected impacts of climate change is not prevalent in these discourses. The climate change discourse too does not adequately bridge the gap between these issues. The projected impacts of climate change are likely to exacerbate the problems of scarcity and equitable access unless appropriate adaptation strategies are adopted and resilience is built. The successful delivery of accessible water services under projected climate change impacts therefore lies with an extension of the adaptive water management approach to include equitable access as a key driver.}, }
@article {pmid20360714, year = {2010}, author = {Kemp, J and Milne, R and Reay, DS}, title = {Sceptics and deniers of climate change not to be confused.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {464}, number = {7289}, pages = {673}, doi = {10.1038/464673a}, pmid = {20360714}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Meteorology/*standards ; Research/*standards ; *Truth Disclosure ; }, }
@article {pmid20359148, year = {2010}, author = {Weber, CJ}, title = {Update on global climate change.}, journal = {Urologic nursing}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {81-84}, pmid = {20359148}, issn = {1053-816X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; Cost of Illness ; Developing Countries ; Disease Vectors ; Food Microbiology ; *Global Health ; *Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Water Microbiology ; Weather ; World Health Organization/organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {Global climate change brings new challenges to the control of infectious diseases. Since many waterborne and vector-borne pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, health risks resulting from a warming and more variable climate are potentially huge. Global climate change involves the entire world, but the poorest countries will suffer the most. Nations are coming together to address what can be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with inevitable temperature increases. A key component of any comprehensive mitigation and adaptation plan is a strong public health infrastructure across the world. Nothing less than global public health security is at stake.}, }
@article {pmid20355256, year = {2010}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {New climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {R257-8}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2010.03.004}, pmid = {20355256}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; United Kingdom ; Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid20354072, year = {2010}, author = {Morriën, E and Engelkes, T and Macel, M and Meisner, A and Van der Putten, WH}, title = {Climate change and invasion by intracontinental range-expanding exotic plants: the role of biotic interactions.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {105}, number = {6}, pages = {843-848}, pmid = {20354072}, issn = {1095-8290}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; *Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; Climate Change/classification/*mortality ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Flowers ; *Plant Development ; Plant Shoots ; *Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In this Botanical Briefing we describe how the interactions between plants and their biotic environment can change during range-expansion within a continent and how this may influence plant invasiveness.<br><br>SCOPE: We address how mechanisms explaining intercontinental plant invasions by exotics (such as release from enemies) may also apply to climate-warming-induced range-expanding exotics within the same continent. We focus on above-ground and below-ground interactions of plants, enemies and symbionts, on plant defences, and on nutrient cycling.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Range-expansion by plants may result in above-ground and below-ground enemy release. This enemy release can be due to the higher dispersal capacity of plants than of natural enemies. Moreover, lower-latitudinal plants can have higher defence levels than plants from temperate regions, making them better defended against herbivory. In a world that contains fewer enemies, exotic plants will experience less selection pressure to maintain high levels of defensive secondary metabolites. Range-expanders potentially affect ecosystem processes, such as nutrient cycling. These features are quite comparable with what is known of intercontinental invasive exotic plants. However, intracontinental range-expanding plants will have ongoing gene-flow between the newly established populations and the populations in the native range. This is a major difference from intercontinental invasive exotic plants, which become more severely disconnected from their source populations.}, }
@article {pmid20346477, year = {2010}, author = {Tanga, MC and Ngundu, WI and Judith, N and Mbuh, J and Tendongfor, N and Simard, F and Wanji, S}, title = {Climate change and altitudinal structuring of malaria vectors in south-western Cameroon: their relation to malaria transmission.}, journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene}, volume = {104}, number = {7}, pages = {453-460}, doi = {10.1016/j.trstmh.2010.02.006}, pmid = {20346477}, issn = {1878-3503}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Altitude ; Animals ; Anopheles/classification/*growth &amp; development ; Cameroon/epidemiology ; Climate Change ; Disease Reservoirs ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology/*transmission ; Risk Assessment ; Species Specificity ; Topography, Medical ; }, abstract = {An entomological survey was conducted in Cameroon between October 2004 and September 2005, in nine localities targeted for malaria vector control based on adult productivity and variability. Mosquitoes were collected by human-landing catches (HLCs) and pyrethrum spray catches. A total of 12 500 anophelines were collected and dissected: Anopheles gambiae s.l. (56.86%), An. funestus s.l. (32.57%), An. hancocki (9.38%), and An. nili (1.18%). Applying PCR revealed that specimens of the An. funestus group were An. funestus s.s. and An. gambiae complex were mostly An. melas and An. gambiae s.s. of the M and S molecular forms with the M forms being the most predominant. The natural distribution patterns of Anopheles species were largely determined by altitude with some species having unique environmental tolerance limits. A human blood index (HBI) of 99.05% was recorded. Mean probability of daily survival of the malaria vectors was 0.92, with annual mean life expectancy of 21.9 days and the expectation of infective life was long with a mean of 7.4 days. The high survival rates suggest a high vector potential for the species. This information enhances the development of a more focused and informed vector control intervention.}, }
@article {pmid20337259, year = {2010}, author = {Chaves, LF and Koenraadt, CJ}, title = {Climate change and highland malaria: fresh air for a hot debate.}, journal = {The Quarterly review of biology}, volume = {85}, number = {1}, pages = {27-55}, doi = {10.1086/650284}, pmid = {20337259}, issn = {0033-5770}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Antimalarials ; Breeding ; *Climate Change ; Culicidae ; Drug Resistance, Microbial ; Housing ; Humans ; Insect Vectors ; Insecticides ; Malaria, Falciparum/*epidemiology ; Population Dynamics ; Weather ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, malaria has become established in zones at the margin of its previous distribution, especially in the highlands of East Africa. Studies in this region have sparked a heated debate over the importance of climate change in the territorial expansion of malaria, where positions range from its neglect to the reification of correlations as causes. Here, we review studies supporting and rebutting the role of climatic change as a driving force for highland invasion by malaria. We assessed the conclusions from both sides of the argument and found that evidence for the role of climate in these dynamics is robust. However, we also argue that over-emphasizing the importance of climate is misleading for setting a research agenda, even one which attempts to understand climate change impacts on emerging malaria patterns. We review alternative drivers for the emergence of this disease and highlight the problems still calling for research if the multidimensional nature of malaria is to be adequately tackled. We also contextualize highland malaria as an ongoing evolutionary process. Finally, we present Schmalhausen's law, which explains the lack of resilience in stressed systems, as a biological principle that unifies the importance of climatic and other environmental factors in driving malaria patterns across different spatio-temporal scales.}, }
@article {pmid20335580, year = {2010}, author = {Shuman, EK}, title = {Global climate change and infectious diseases.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {362}, number = {12}, pages = {1061-1063}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp0912931}, pmid = {20335580}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Cost of Illness ; Developing Countries ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Insect Vectors ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; }, }
@article {pmid20335215, year = {2010}, author = {Sommer, JH and Kreft, H and Kier, G and Jetz, W and Mutke, J and Barthlott, W}, title = {Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {277}, number = {1692}, pages = {2271-2280}, pmid = {20335215}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Linear Models ; *Models, Biological ; *Plant Development ; }, abstract = {Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario, but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras.}, }
@article {pmid20334844, year = {2010}, author = {Morillas-Márquez, F and Martín-Sánchez, J and Díaz-Sáez, V and Barón-López, S and Morales-Yuste, M and de Lima Franco, FA and Sanchís-Marín, MC}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases in Europe: leishmaniasis and its vectors in Spain.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {216-217}, doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(10)70052-9}, pmid = {20334844}, issn = {1474-4457}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Vectors/*classification ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Humans ; Leishmaniasis/*epidemiology ; Psychodidae ; Spain/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid20333948, year = {2010}, author = {Morris, GP}, title = {Ecological public health and climate change policy.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {130}, number = {1}, pages = {34-40}, doi = {10.1177/1757913909354149}, pmid = {20333948}, issn = {1757-9139}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology/*organization &amp; administration ; Environment ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; Scotland ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {The fact that health and disease are products of a complex interaction of factors has long been recognized in public health circles. More recently, the term 'ecological public health' has been used to characterize an era underpinned by the paradigm that, when it comes to health and well-being, 'everything matters'. The challenge for policy makers is one of navigating this complexity to deliver better health and greater equality in health. Recent work in Scotland has been concerned to develop a strategic approach to environment and health. This seeks to embrace complexity within that agenda and recognize a more subtle relationship between health and place but remain practical and relevant to a more traditional hazard-focused environmental health approach. The Good Places, Better Health initiative is underpinned by a new problem-framing approach using a conceptual model developed for that purpose. This requires consideration of a wider social, behavioural etc, context. The approach is also used to configure the core systems of the strategy which gather relevant intelligence, subject it to a process of evaluation and direct its outputs to a broad policy constituency extending beyond health and environment. This paper highlights that an approach, conceived and developed to deliver better health and greater equality in health through action on physical environment, also speaks to a wider public health agenda. Specifically it offers a way to help bridge a gap between paradigm and policy in public health. The author considers that with development, a systems-based approach with close attention to problem-framing/situational modelling may prove useful in orchestrating what is a necessarily complex policy response to mitigate and adapt to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20333947, year = {2010}, author = {Nurse, J and Basher, D and Bone, A and Bird, W}, title = {An ecological approach to promoting population mental health and well-being--a response to the challenge of climate change.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {130}, number = {1}, pages = {27-33}, doi = {10.1177/1757913909355221}, pmid = {20333947}, issn = {1757-9139}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Conservation of Energy Resources/methods ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; *Mental Health ; Nature ; Social Support ; }, abstract = {Climate change can be viewed as human-induced change to climate and depletion of natural systems. It potentially the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. It is predicted to have wide-ranging impacts upon human mental health and well-being, through changes and challenges to people's environment, socioeconomic structures and physical security. Even the most conservative estimates of the health impacts are extremely alarming. Increasingly, the causes of poor human health and environmental damage are related. This implies that there are common solutions. For example, there are co-benefits to human health and biodiversity from mitigating and adapting to climate change (e.g. promoting active transport and reducing car use reduces CO2 emissions, benefits our environment and reduces morbidity and mortality associated with a sedentary lifestyle). This article outlines how climate change impacts upon mental health and well-being. It introduces ecological concepts, applies these to public health and outlines their implications in transforming the way that we prioritize and deliver public health in order to promote both environmental and human health. Evidence, from psychology and neuroscience, suggests that the perception of being disconnected from our inner selves, from each other and from our environment has contributed to poor mental and physical health. We argue that we must transform the way we understand mental health and well-being and integrate it into action against climate change. We describe a Public Health Framework for Developing Well-Being, based on the principles of ecological public health.}, }
@article {pmid20333946, year = {2010}, author = {McFarlane, GJ}, title = {Climate change--the greatest public health threat of our time: seeing the wood, not just the trees.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {130}, number = {1}, pages = {21-26}, doi = {10.1177/1757913909355217}, pmid = {20333946}, issn = {1757-9139}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; Health Policy ; *Health Priorities ; Humans ; Politics ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {If asked to describe the key public health challenges of our time many practitioners might well cite issues such as health inequalities, obesity, smoking and poverty. However, with the greatest of respect to those agendas, they are not, in my view, the greatest priority at present. If we cannot learn to live within sustainable limits and damage beyond repair the essential life support systems that we depend on, they will fail catastrophically with horrific consequences for humanity. All credible, reliable scientific evidence suggests that without profound and significant change that is exactly where we are headed. However, there is time, albeit short, to avoid the very worst consequences of runaway climate change. But to do so requires collective and urgent action now! Public health practitioners have potentially so much to offer towards this effort. We have many of the skills and experience so critically needed to advocate for change--both political and behavioural; we have the ability to design creative, effective, and dynamic interventions to assist and facilitate communities and individuals make the journey; and equally importantly we have huge opportunities to do so. However to do so effectively means that we need to look at the problem through a different lens and make climate change a top public health priority. We need to see beyond many of the institutional and cultural barriers that exist, albeit not through deliberate design, within our organisations which can cause us to be focused on very specific agendas and see the whole wood, rather than individual trees within it. Climate change is not just an "environmental" problem and a priority therefore specifically for that sector. It is already costing lives and is life threatening on a scale that far surpasses current public health concerns and priorities. Equally critically, tackling climate change would and will significantly contribute towards addressing health inequalities. To use two well worn public health cliché's, climate change is everyone's business. And it must be a case of prevention because there will be, in this instance, no cure!}, }
@article {pmid20333943, year = {2010}, author = {Rao, M}, title = {The impact of climate change on health in India.}, journal = {Perspectives in public health}, volume = {130}, number = {1}, pages = {15-16}, doi = {10.1177/1757913909354146}, pmid = {20333943}, issn = {1757-9139}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Pollution ; Food Supply ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; *Public Health ; Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid20306558, year = {2010}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {The missing climate change policy.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {R221-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2010.02.025}, pmid = {20306558}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Family Characteristics ; Humans ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Affluent western individuals are increasingly fretting about the carbon dioxide emissions from their lifestyle and energy use but one key issue, having fewer children, is little considered. Nigel Williams reports.}, }
@article {pmid20305712, year = {2010}, author = {Ricketts, TH and Soares-Filho, B and da Fonseca, GA and Nepstad, D and Pfaff, A and Petsonk, A and Anderson, A and Boucher, D and Cattaneo, A and Conte, M and Creighton, K and Linden, L and Maretti, C and Moutinho, P and Ullman, R and Victurine, R}, title = {Indigenous lands, protected areas, and slowing climate change.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {e1000331}, pmid = {20305712}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; International Cooperation/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {Recent climate talks in Copenhagen reaffirmed the crucial role of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD). Creating and strengthening indigenous lands and other protected areas represents an effective, practical, and immediate REDD strategy that addresses both biodiversity and climate crises at once.}, }
@article {pmid20304465, year = {2010}, author = {Macleod, CJ and Haygarth, PM}, title = {Integrating water and agricultural management under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {408}, number = {23}, pages = {5619-5622}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.02.041}, pmid = {20304465}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid20302334, year = {2010}, author = {Levasseur, A and Lesage, P and Margni, M and Deschênes, L and Samson, R}, title = {Considering time in LCA: dynamic LCA and its application to global warming impact assessments.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {8}, pages = {3169-3174}, doi = {10.1021/es9030003}, pmid = {20302334}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Warming ; Life Cycle Stages ; }, abstract = {The lack of temporal information is an important limitation of life cycle assessment (LCA). A dynamic LCA approach is proposed to improve the accuracy of LCA by addressing the inconsistency of temporal assessment. This approach consists of first computing a dynamic life cycle inventory (LCI), considering the temporal profile of emissions. Then, time-dependent characterization factors are calculated to assess the dynamic LCI in real-time impact scores for any given time horizon. Although generally applicable to any impact category, this approach is developed here for global warming, based on the radiative forcing concept. This case study demonstrates that the use of global warming potentials for a given time horizon to characterize greenhouse gas emissions leads to an inconsistency between the time frame chosen for the analysis and the time period covered by the LCA results. Dynamic LCA is applied to the US EPA LCA on renewable fuels, which compares the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of different biofuels with fossil fuels including land-use change emissions. The comparison of the results obtained with both traditional and dynamic LCA approaches shows that the difference can be important enough to change the conclusions on whether or not a biofuel meets some given global warming reduction targets.}, }
@article {pmid20301813, year = {2010}, author = {,  and Andrady, A and Aucamp, PJ and Bais, AF and Ballaré, CL and Björn, LO and Bornman, JF and Caldwell, M and Cullen, AP and Erickson, DJ and deGruijl, FR and Häder, DP and Ilyas, M and Kulandaivelu, G and Kumar, HD and Longstreth, J and McKenzie, RL and Norval, M and Paul, N and Redhwi, HH and Smith, RC and Solomon, KR and Sulzberger, B and Takizawa, Y and Tang, X and Teramura, AH and Torikai, A and van der Leun, JC and Wilson, SR and Worrest, RC and Zepp, RG}, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2009.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {275-294}, doi = {10.1039/b923342n}, pmid = {20301813}, issn = {1474-9092}, mesh = {Air/analysis ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Environment ; Humans ; Ozone/*analysis ; *Program Development ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {The parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with UV radiation and its effects on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality and materials. Since 2000, the analyses and interpretation of these effects have included interactions between UV radiation and global climate change. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than believed previously. As a result of this, human health and environmental problems will likely be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other panels, the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was that for 2006 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2007, 6, 201-332). In the years in between, the EEAP produces a less detailed and shorter progress report, as is the case for this present one for 2009. A full quadrennial report will follow for 2010.}, }
@article {pmid20299580, year = {2010}, author = {Körner, C and Basler, D}, title = {Plant science. Phenology under global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {327}, number = {5972}, pages = {1461-1462}, doi = {10.1126/science.1186473}, pmid = {20299580}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Flowers/growth &amp; development ; *Global Warming ; Photoperiod ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Trees/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid20299566, year = {2010}, author = {Bohannon, J}, title = {Climate change. The Nile Delta's sinking future.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {327}, number = {5972}, pages = {1444-1447}, doi = {10.1126/science.327.5972.1444}, pmid = {20299566}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20236982, year = {2010}, author = {Lindegren, M and Möllmann, C and Nielsen, A and Brander, K and MacKenzie, BR and Stenseth, NC}, title = {Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {277}, number = {1691}, pages = {2121-2130}, pmid = {20236982}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Baltic States ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Fisheries/*methods ; *Food Chain ; Forecasting/methods ; Gadus morhua/*growth &amp; development ; *Models, Biological ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Dynamics ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid20232245, year = {2010}, author = {Culley, MR and Angelique, H}, title = {Nuclear power: renaissance or relapse? Global climate change and long-term Three Mile Island activists' narratives.}, journal = {American journal of community psychology}, volume = {45}, number = {3-4}, pages = {231-246}, doi = {10.1007/s10464-010-9299-8}, pmid = {20232245}, issn = {1573-2770}, mesh = {Awareness ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Disasters/*history ; Environmental Pollution ; History, 20th Century ; Interviews as Topic ; Narration ; *Nuclear Power Plants/history ; Pennsylvania ; Politics ; Psychology, Social ; Public Opinion ; Residence Characteristics ; Risk ; }, abstract = {Community narratives are increasingly important as people move towards an ecologically sustainable society. Global climate change is a multi-faceted problem with multiple stakeholders. The voices of affected communities must be heard as we make decisions of global significance. We document the narratives of long-term anti-nuclear activists near the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant who speak out in the dawn of a nuclear renaissance/relapse. While nuclear power is marketed as a "green" solution to global warming, their narratives reveal three areas for consideration; (1) significant problems with nuclear technology, (2) lessons "not" learned from the TMI disaster, and (3) hopes for a sustainable future. Nuclear waste, untrustworthy officials and economic issues were among the problems cited. Deceptive shaping of public opinion, nuclear illiteracy, and an aging anti-nuclear movement were reasons cited for the lessons not learned. However, many remain optimistic and envision increased participation to create an ecologically-balanced world.}, }
@article {pmid20231894, year = {2010}, author = {Joyner, TA and Lukhnova, L and Pazilov, Y and Temiralyeva, G and Hugh-Jones, ME and Aikimbayev, A and Blackburn, JK}, title = {Modeling the potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis under multiple climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {5}, number = {3}, pages = {e9596}, pmid = {20231894}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Area Under Curve ; Bacillus anthracis/*physiology ; Climate Change ; Disaster Planning ; Environmental Microbiology ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Geography ; Kazakhstan ; Public Health ; ROC Curve ; Reproducibility of Results ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km(2) and 8 km(2) and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km(2). Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting approximately 14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting approximately 15% loss at 55 km(2), approximately 34% loss at 8 km(2), and approximately 30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km(2). Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B. anthracis.}, }
@article {pmid20230360, year = {2010}, author = {Egger, GJ and Swinburn, B and Stanley, F and Phelps, K}, title = {An open letter to politicians on climate change and obesity.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {192}, number = {6}, pages = {359-360}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.2010.tb03550.x}, pmid = {20230360}, issn = {0025-729X}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Obesity/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid20230019, year = {2010}, author = {Eriksson Hägg, H and Humborg, C and Mörth, CM and Medina, MR and Wulff, F}, title = {Scenario analysis on protein consumption and climate change effects on riverine N export to the Baltic Sea.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {7}, pages = {2379-2385}, doi = {10.1021/es902632p}, pmid = {20230019}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Models, Chemical ; *Motion ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Oceans and Seas ; Proteins/*metabolism ; Rivers/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {This paper evaluates possible future nitrogen loadings from 105 catchments surrounding the Baltic Sea. Multiple regressions are used to model total nitrogen (TN) flux as a function of specific runoff (Q), atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and primary emissions (PE) from humans and livestock. On average cattle contributed with 63%, humans with 20%, and pigs with 17% of the total nitrogen PE to land. Compared to the reference period (1992-1996) we then evaluated two types of scenarios for year 2070. i) An increased protein consumption scenario that led to 16% to 39% increased mean TN flux (kg per km(-2)). ii) Four climate scenarios addressing effects of changes in river discharge. These scenarios showed increased mean TN flux from the northern catchments draining into the Gulf of Bothnia (34%) and the Gulfs of Finland and Riga (14%), while the mean TN flux decreased (-27%) for catchments draining to the Baltic Proper. However, the net effect of the scenarios showed a possible increase in TN flux ranging from 3-72%. Overall an increased demand for animal protein will be instrumental for the Baltic Sea ecosystem and may be a major holdback to fulfill the environmental goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.}, }
@article {pmid20222532, year = {2010}, author = {Liao, KJ and Tagaris, E and Russell, AG and Amar, P and He, S and Manomaiphiboon, K and Woo, JH}, title = {Cost analysis of impacts of climate change on regional air quality.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {60}, number = {2}, pages = {195-203}, doi = {10.3155/1047-3289.60.2.195}, pmid = {20222532}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Air Pollutants, Occupational/analysis ; Air Pollution/*economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Air Pollution, Indoor ; Algorithms ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; *Global Warming ; Models, Statistical ; Oxidants, Photochemical/analysis ; Ozone/analysis ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool are used to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for 2049-2051 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. On the basis of the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least-cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally averaged 4th highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly averaged PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm) for the six regions examined are predicted to range from $36 million (1999$) yr(-1) in the Southeast to $5.5 billion yr(-1) in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of $4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in 2049-2051 in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of $9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate change impacts on air quality for the six regions and five cities examined. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. Additional control costs for offsetting the impacts everywhere in the United States could be larger than the estimates in this study. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated control requirements and should be considered in developing control strategies for achieving air quality targets in the future.}, }
@article {pmid20213886, year = {2010}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {Climate change attack.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {R125-7}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2010.02.002}, pmid = {20213886}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Ice Cover ; *Politics ; Public Opinion ; Solar Energy/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid20211510, year = {2010}, author = {Sunyer, J}, title = {[Health promotion and climate change].}, journal = {Gaceta sanitaria}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {101-102}, doi = {10.1016/j.gaceta.2010.01.008}, pmid = {20211510}, issn = {1578-1283}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid20203040, year = {2010}, author = {Heimann, M}, title = {Climate change. How stable is the methane cycle?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {327}, number = {5970}, pages = {1211-1212}, doi = {10.1126/science.1187270}, pmid = {20203040}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20202998, year = {2010}, author = {Friend, AD}, title = {Terrestrial plant production and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {61}, number = {5}, pages = {1293-1309}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erq019}, pmid = {20202998}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; *Plant Development ; Plants/metabolism ; }, abstract = {The likely future increase in atmospheric CO(2) and associated changes in climate will affect global patterns of plant production. Models integrate understanding of the influence of the environment on plant physiological processes and so enable estimates of future changes to be made. Moreover, they allow us to assess the consequences of different assumptions for predictions and so stimulate further research. This paper is a review of the sensitivities of one such model, Hybrid6.5, a detailed mechanistic model of terrestrial primary production. This model is typical of its type, and the sensitivities of the global distribution of predicted production to model assumptions and possible future CO(2) levels and climate are assessed. Sensitivity tests show that leaf phenology has large effects on mean C(3) crop and needleleaved cold deciduous tree production, reducing potential net primary production (NPP) from that obtained using constant maximum annual leaf area index by 32.9% and 41.6%, respectively. Generalized Plant Type (GPT) specific parameterizations, particularly photosynthetic capacity per unit leaf N, affect mean predicted NPP of higher C(3) plants by -22.3% to 27.9%, depending on the GPT, compared to NPP predictions obtained using mean parameter values. An increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentrations from current values to 720 ppm by the end of this century, with associated effects on climate from a typical climate model, is predicted to increase global NPP by 37.3%. Mean increases range from 43.9-52.9% across different C(3) GPTs, whereas the mean NPP of C(4) grass and crop increases by 5.9%. Significant uncertainties concern the extent to which acclimative processes may reduce any potential future increase in primary production and the degree to which any gains are transferred to durable, and especially edible, biomass. Experimentalists and modellers need to work closely together to reduce these uncertainties. A number of research priorities are suggested. 'The green leaf or, to be more precise, the microscopic green grain of chlorophyll, is the focus, the point in the world to which solar energy flows on one side while all the manifestations of life on earth take their source on the other side.' Kliment Arkadievich Timiryazev The conclusions of a century of plant physiology, speech at Moscow University, 12 January 1901.}, }
@article {pmid20202013, year = {2010}, author = {Møller, AP and Flensted-Jensen, E and Klarborg, K and Mardal, W and Nielsen, JT}, title = {Climate change affects the duration of the reproductive season in birds.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {79}, number = {4}, pages = {777-784}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01677.x}, pmid = {20202013}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Denmark ; Female ; Male ; Population Dynamics ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {1. The duration of the reproductive season may depend on the duration of the growing season, with recent amelioration in spring temperatures allowing earlier start of reproduction. Earlier start of reproduction may allow a longer breeding season because of more broods a longer interval between broods for multi-brooded species. 2. We analysed extensive long-term data sets on timing of breeding in 20 species of birds from Denmark, based on records of over 100 000 individual offspring, showing considerable heterogeneity among species in temporal change in duration of the breeding season. 3. Multi-brooded species increased the duration of their breeding season by 0.43 days year(-1) while single-brooded species decreased the duration of their breeding season by 0.44 days year(-1). This implies that recent climate change has allowed more broods or better temporal spacing of broods in multi-brooded species, while the time window for reproduction has become narrower in single-brooded species. 4. The single-most important predictor of change in duration of the breeding season was change in the date breeding started; there was no change in the date of end of breeding. Species advancing their breeding date the most also expanded the duration of the breeding season. In contrast, long-distance migration and generation time did not predict change in duration of the breeding season.}, }
@article {pmid20200173, year = {2010}, author = {Abbasi, K}, title = {MMR, climate change, and orthopaedics: a bad month for peer review.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine}, volume = {103}, number = {3}, pages = {77-78}, doi = {10.1258/jrsm.2010.10k009}, pmid = {20200173}, issn = {1758-1095}, mesh = {Humans ; *Orthopedics ; *Peer Review ; *Periodicals as Topic ; Professional Review Organizations/*trends ; Quality Control ; }, }
@article {pmid20200062, year = {2010}, author = {Roehr, B}, title = {Strategies are needed to deal with migration resulting from climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {340}, number = {}, pages = {c1243}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.c1243}, pmid = {20200062}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Emigration and Immigration/*trends ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid20190122, year = {2010}, author = {Tomanek, L}, title = {Variation in the heat shock response and its implication for predicting the effect of global climate change on species' biogeographical distribution ranges and metabolic costs.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {213}, number = {6}, pages = {971-979}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.038034}, pmid = {20190122}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Energy Metabolism/*physiology ; *Environment ; Gene Expression Profiling ; Heat-Shock Response/*physiology ; Seawater ; Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The preferential synthesis of heat shock proteins (Hsps) in response to thermal stress [the heat shock response (HSR)] has been shown to vary in species that occupy different thermal environments. A survey of case studies of aquatic (mostly marine) organisms occupying stable thermal environments at all latitudes, from polar to tropical, shows that they do not in general respond to heat stress with an inducible HSR. Organisms that occupy highly variable thermal environments (variations up to >20 degrees C), like the intertidal zone, induce the HSR frequently and within the range of body temperatures they normally experience, suggesting that the response is part of their biochemical strategy to occupy this thermal niche. The highest temperatures at which these organisms can synthesize Hsps are only a few degrees Celsius higher than the highest body temperatures they experience. Thus, they live close to their thermal limits and any further increase in temperature is probably going to push them beyond those limits. In comparison, organisms occupying moderately variable thermal environments (<10 degrees C), like the subtidal zone, activate the HSR at temperatures above those they normally experience in their habitats. They have a wider temperature range above their body temperature range over which they can synthesize Hsps. Contrary to our expectations, species from highly (in comparison with moderately) variable thermal environments have a limited acclimatory plasticity. Due to this variation in the HSR, species from stable and highly variable environments are likely to be more affected by climate change than species from moderately variable environments.}, }
@article {pmid20190116, year = {2010}, author = {Somero, GN}, title = {The physiology of climate change: how potentials for acclimatization and genetic adaptation will determine 'winners' and 'losers'.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {213}, number = {6}, pages = {912-920}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.037473}, pmid = {20190116}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics/*physiology ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Body Temperature/physiology ; Body Temperature Regulation/physiology ; *Climate Change ; DNA/metabolism ; Malate Dehydrogenase/chemistry ; Models, Molecular ; Polymorphism, Genetic ; Protein Conformation ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Physiological studies can help predict effects of climate change through determining which species currently live closest to their upper thermal tolerance limits, which physiological systems set these limits, and how species differ in acclimatization capacities for modifying their thermal tolerances. Reductionist studies at the molecular level can contribute to this analysis by revealing how much change in sequence is needed to adapt proteins to warmer temperatures--thus providing insights into potential rates of adaptive evolution--and determining how the contents of genomes--protein-coding genes and gene regulatory mechanisms--influence capacities for adapting to acute and long-term increases in temperature. Studies of congeneric invertebrates from thermally stressful rocky intertidal habitats have shown that warm-adapted congeners are most susceptible to local extinctions because their acute upper thermal limits (LT(50) values) lie near current thermal maxima and their abilities to increase thermal tolerance through acclimation are limited. Collapse of cardiac function may underlie acute and longer-term thermal limits. Local extinctions from heat death may be offset by in-migration of genetically warm-adapted conspecifics from mid-latitude 'hot spots', where midday low tides in summer select for heat tolerance. A single amino acid replacement is sufficient to adapt a protein to a new thermal range. More challenging to adaptive evolution are lesions in genomes of stenotherms like Antarctic marine ectotherms, which have lost protein-coding genes and gene regulatory mechanisms needed for coping with rising temperature. These extreme stenotherms, along with warm-adapted eurytherms living near their thermal limits, may be the major 'losers' from climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20190115, year = {2010}, author = {Witt, MJ and Hawkes, LA and Godfrey, MH and Godley, BJ and Broderick, AC}, title = {Predicting the impacts of climate change on a globally distributed species: the case of the loggerhead turtle.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {213}, number = {6}, pages = {901-911}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.038133}, pmid = {20190115}, issn = {1477-9145}, support = {//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Male ; Marine Biology ; Nesting Behavior/physiology ; Reproduction/physiology ; *Seawater ; Sex Ratio ; Sexual Behavior, Animal/physiology ; Temperature ; *Turtles/physiology ; }, abstract = {Marine turtles utilise terrestrial and marine habitats and several aspects of their life history are tied to environmental features that are altering due to rapid climate change. We overview the likely impacts of climate change on the biology of these species, which are likely centred upon the thermal ecology of this taxonomic group. Then, focusing in detail on three decades of research on the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta L.), we describe how much progress has been made to date and how future experimental and ecological focus should be directed. Key questions include: what are the current hatchling sex ratios from which to measure future climate-induced changes? What are wild adult sex ratios and how many males are necessary to maintain a fertile and productive population? How will climate change affect turtles in terms of their distribution?}, }
@article {pmid20190114, year = {2010}, author = {Wilson, SK and Adjeroud, M and Bellwood, DR and Berumen, ML and Booth, D and Bozec, YM and Chabanet, P and Cheal, A and Cinner, J and Depczynski, M and Feary, DA and Gagliano, M and Graham, NA and Halford, AR and Halpern, BS and Harborne, AR and Hoey, AS and Holbrook, SJ and Jones, GP and Kulbiki, M and Letourneur, Y and De Loma, TL and McClanahan, T and McCormick, MI and Meekan, MG and Mumby, PJ and Munday, PL and Ohman, MC and Pratchett, MS and Riegl, B and Sano, M and Schmitt, RJ and Syms, C}, title = {Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {213}, number = {6}, pages = {894-900}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.037895}, pmid = {20190114}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; Behavior, Animal/physiology ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fish Diseases ; Fishes/*physiology ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; *Seawater ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.}, }
@article {pmid20190111, year = {2010}, author = {La Sorte, FA and Jetz, W}, title = {Avian distributions under climate change: towards improved projections.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {213}, number = {6}, pages = {862-869}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.038356}, pmid = {20190111}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Birds/physiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Birds are responding to recent climate change in a variety of ways including shifting their geographic ranges to cooler climates. There is evidence that northern-temperate birds have shifted their breeding and non-breeding ranges to higher latitudes, and tropical birds have shifted their breeding ranges to higher altitudes. There is further evidence these shifts have affected migration strategies and the composition and structure of communities. Projections based on correlative distributional models suggest many birds will experience substantial pressures under climate change, resulting in range contraction and shifts. Inherent limitations of correlative models, however, make it difficult to develop reliable projections and detailed inference. Incorporating a mechanistic perspective into species distribution models enriches the quality of model inferences but also severely narrows the taxonomic and geographic relevance. Mechanistic distributional models have seen increased applications, but so far primarily in ectotherms. We argue that further development of similar models in birds would complement existing empirical knowledge and theoretical projections. The considerable data already available on birds offer an exciting basis. In particular, information compiled on flight performance and thermal associations across life history stages could be linked to distributional limits and dispersal abilities, which could be used to develop more robust and detailed projections. Yet, only a broadening of taxonomic scale, specifically to appropriately represented tropical diversity, will allow for truly general inference and require the continued use of correlative approaches that may take on increasingly mechanistic components. The trade-off between detail and scale is likely to characterize the future of global change biodiversity research, and birds may be an excellent group to improve, integrate and geographically extend current approaches.}, }
@article {pmid20190110, year = {2010}, author = {MacDonald, GM}, title = {Global warming and the Arctic: a new world beyond the reach of the Grinnellian niche?.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {213}, number = {6}, pages = {855-861}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.039511}, pmid = {20190110}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Plants ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The levels of CO(2) in the atmosphere have already far exceeded values attained at any other time over at least the past 650,000 years. Temperature increases due to rising greenhouse gases will be amplified in Arctic and subarctic regions, and winter warming will be enhanced relative to summer warming. Climate in large areas of high latitudes may have no analogue in current climates or those of the recent geological past. Experimental field manipulations and laboratory studies indicate that plants will exhibit complex responses in photosynthesis, growth rates, phenology and reproductive functioning due to this combination of increasing temperatures, changing seasonality and increasing levels of CO(2). The resulting changes in the abundance, distribution, growth rates and production of fruit and phenology of plant species will in turn impact animal populations. In predicting what the future biota of the 'New Arctic' will be like and developing appropriate conservation strategies, Grinnellian niche-based approaches are likely to be insufficient, and experimental ecological studies of organism response to specific anticipated changes in climate are crucial.}, }
@article {pmid20188398, year = {2010}, author = {Luo, B and Maqsood, I and Gong, Y}, title = {Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {408}, number = {9}, pages = {2034-2041}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.02.014}, pmid = {20188398}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Models, Theoretical ; Stochastic Processes ; Uncertainty ; Water Pollution/analysis/*prevention &amp; control ; *Water Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program.}, }
@article {pmid20184656, year = {2010}, author = {Povilitis, A and Suckling, K}, title = {Addressing climate change threats to endangered species in U.S. recovery plans.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {372-376}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01447.x}, pmid = {20184656}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Endangered Species/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid20184611, year = {2010}, author = {Inokuma, D and Shibaki, A and Shimizu, H}, title = {Two cases of cutaneous sporotrichosis in continental/microthermal climate zone: global warming alert?.}, journal = {Clinical and experimental dermatology}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {668-669}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2230.2010.03795.x}, pmid = {20184611}, issn = {1365-2230}, mesh = {Climate ; Eyelid Diseases/microbiology/*pathology ; Facial Dermatoses/microbiology/*pathology ; Female ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Japan ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Sporothrix/growth &amp; development ; Sporotrichosis/*pathology ; }, }
@article {pmid20184567, year = {2010}, author = {Schweiger, O and Biesmeijer, JC and Bommarco, R and Hickler, T and Hulme, PE and Klotz, S and Kühn, I and Moora, M and Nielsen, A and Ohlemüller, R and Petanidou, T and Potts, SG and Pyšek, P and Stout, JC and Sykes, MT and Tscheulin, T and Vilà, M and Walther, GR and Westphal, C and Winter, M and Zobel, M and Settele, J}, title = {Multiple stressors on biotic interactions: how climate change and alien species interact to affect pollination.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {85}, number = {4}, pages = {777-795}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-185X.2010.00125.x}, pmid = {20184567}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Insecta/*physiology ; *Introduced Species ; *Plant Development ; *Pollination ; }, abstract = {Global change may substantially affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning but little is known about its effects on essential biotic interactions. Since different environmental drivers rarely act in isolation it is important to consider interactive effects. Here, we focus on how two key drivers of anthropogenic environmental change, climate change and the introduction of alien species, affect plant-pollinator interactions. Based on a literature survey we identify climatically sensitive aspects of species interactions, assess potential effects of climate change on these mechanisms, and derive hypotheses that may form the basis of future research. We find that both climate change and alien species will ultimately lead to the creation of novel communities. In these communities certain interactions may no longer occur while there will also be potential for the emergence of new relationships. Alien species can both partly compensate for the often negative effects of climate change but also amplify them in some cases. Since potential positive effects are often restricted to generalist interactions among species, climate change and alien species in combination can result in significant threats to more specialist interactions involving native species.}, }
@article {pmid20184187, year = {2010}, author = {Wullschleger, SD and Strahl, M}, title = {Climate change: a controlled experiment.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {302}, number = {3}, pages = {78-83}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0310-78}, pmid = {20184187}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; *Plant Development ; Poaceae/growth &amp; development ; *Rain ; *Research ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid20184161, year = {2010}, author = {Golubiatnikov, LL and Denisenko, EA}, title = {[Thermodynamic approach to estimating climate change impacts on the vegetation cover].}, journal = {Zhurnal obshchei biologii}, volume = {71}, number = {1}, pages = {85-96}, pmid = {20184161}, issn = {0044-4596}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Ecology/*methods ; Entropy ; *Models, Biological ; *Plant Development ; Russia ; *Thermodynamics ; }, abstract = {Possible changes of zonal phytocenoses for the territory of European Russia under a 1 degrees C increase in the annual mean global surface temperature are analyzed from a thermodynamic point of view. Outputs of the atmosphere-ocean general circulation model HadCM3 (Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom) and the intermediate-complexity climate model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, are used. Model estimates of the annual entropy production by the vegetation cover for the territory under study are obtained for the second half of the 20th century. Changes in the annual entropy production are estimated under possible warming.}, }
@article {pmid20182503, year = {2010}, author = {Sriver, RL}, title = {Climate change: Tropical cyclones in the mix.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {463}, number = {7284}, pages = {1032-1033}, pmid = {20182503}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; *Climate ; Cyclonic Storms/*history ; Global Warming ; History, Ancient ; Oceans and Seas ; Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid20170181, year = {2010}, author = {Klaminder, J and Hammarlund, D and Kokfelt, U and Vonk, JE and Bigler, C}, title = {Lead contamination of subarctic lakes and its response to reduced atmospheric fallout: can the recovery process be counteracted by the ongoing climate change?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {7}, pages = {2335-2340}, doi = {10.1021/es903025z}, pmid = {20170181}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Bryophyta/chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fossils ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Geography ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Lead/*analysis ; Lead Radioisotopes ; Organic Chemicals/analysis ; Radiometric Dating ; Sweden ; Trees/chemistry ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Can a climate-triggered export of old contaminants from the soil alter the lead (Pb) contaminant burden of subarctic lakes? To address this question, we reconstructed the pollution history of three high latitude lakes situated in a region where a recent climatic shift has occurred. Dated sediment records were used as archives of past Pb inputs to the lakes, where the difference in the (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratio between atmospheric contaminants ((206)Pb/(207)Pb ratio <1.16) and geogenic Pb in the catchment soil ((206)Pb/(207)Pb ratio >1.22) were used to trace fluxes of Pb contaminants. Lead contaminants were found in sediments deposited since Roman times. A significant export of Pb from the soil contaminant pool is indicated in two of the lakes surrounded by near-shore permafrost soils. Here, levels of Pb contaminants and (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios of sediments deposited after the 1970s appear not to have been strongly affected by the >or=90% reduction in atmospheric deposition rates and increasing (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios of atmospheric Pb since the 1990s. We concluded that soil processes stimulated by the ongoing climate change at high latitudes might work counteractive to efforts to reduce contaminant levels in subarctic lakes.}, }
@article {pmid20167160, year = {2010}, author = {Parkinson, AJ}, title = {Sustainable development, climate change and human health in the Arctic.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {69}, number = {1}, pages = {99-105}, doi = {10.3402/ijch.v69i1.17428}, pmid = {20167160}, issn = {1239-9736}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Pollution ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Population Groups ; }, }
@article {pmid20166910, year = {2009}, author = {Saniotis, A and Bi, P}, title = {Global warming and Australian public health: reasons to be concerned.}, journal = {Australian health review : a publication of the Australian Hospital Association}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {611-617}, doi = {10.1071/ah090611}, pmid = {20166910}, issn = {0156-5788}, mesh = {Australia ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Studies in global warming and climate change indicate that human populations will be deleteriously affected in the future. Studies forecast that Australia will experience increasing heat waves and droughts. Heat stress caused by frequent heat waves will have a marked effect on older Australians due to physiological and pharmacological factors. In this paper we present an overview of some of the foreseeable issues which older Australians will face from a public health perspective.}, }
@article {pmid20165625, year = {2009}, author = {Majra, JP and Acharya, D}, title = {Protecting health from climate change: preparedness of medical interns.}, journal = {Indian journal of community medicine : official publication of Indian Association of Preventive &amp; Social Medicine}, volume = {34}, number = {4}, pages = {317-320}, pmid = {20165625}, issn = {1998-3581}, abstract = {CONTEXT: Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health and to meet the challenge, health systems require qualified staff.<br><br>AIMS: To study the preparedness of medical interns to meet the challenge of protecting health from climate change.<br><br>SETTINGS AND DESIGN: Medical colleges in a coastal town. Cross-sectional study.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: A proportionate number of medical interns from five medical colleges were included in the study. Level of awareness was used as a criterion to judge the preparedness. A self-administered, pretested, open-ended questionnaire was used. Responses were evaluated and graded.<br><br>STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: Proportions, percentage, Chi-test.<br><br>RESULTS: About 90% of the medical interns were aware of the climate change and human activities that were playing a major role. Ninety-four percent were aware of the direct health impacts due to higher temperature and depletion in ozone concentration, and about 78% of the respondents were aware about the change in frequency / distribution of vector-borne diseases, water borne / related diseases, malnutrition, and health impact of population displacement. Knowledge regarding health protection was limited to mitigation of climate change and training / education. Options like adaptation, establishing / strengthening climate and disease surveillance systems, and health action in emergency were known to only nine (7%), eight (6%), and 17 (13%), respectively. Collegewise difference was statistically insignificant. Extra / co-curricular activities were the major source of knowledge.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Majority of medical interns were aware of the causes and health impacts of climate change, but their knowledge regarding health protection measures was limited.}, }
@article {pmid20165607, year = {2009}, author = {Pandve, HT}, title = {India's National Action Plan on Climate Change.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {17-19}, pmid = {20165607}, issn = {1998-3670}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture - further endangering food security - to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to mitigate and adapt to climate change on June 30, 2008, almost a year after it was announced. The NAPCC runs through 2017 and directs ministries to submit detailed implementation plans to the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change by December 2008. This article briefly reviews the plan and opinion about it from different experts and organizations.}, }
@article {pmid20165606, year = {2009}, author = {Majra, JP and Gur, A}, title = {Climate change and health: Why should India be concerned?.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {11-16}, pmid = {20165606}, issn = {1998-3670}, abstract = {Overwhelming evidence shows that climate change presents growing threats to public health security - from extreme weather-related disasters to wider spread of such vector-borne diseases as malaria and dengue. The impacts of climate on human health will not be evenly distributed around the world. The Third Assessment Report (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-2001) concluded that vulnerability to climate change is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Developing country populations, particularly in small island states, arid and high mountain zones, and in densely populated coastal areas are considered to be particularly vulnerable. India is a large developing country, with the Great Himalayas, the world's third largest ice mass in the north, 7500 km long, and densely populated coast line in the south. Nearly 700 million of her over one billion population living in rural areas directly depends on climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, forests, and fisheries) and natural resources (such as water, biodiversity, mangroves, coastal zones, grasslands) for their subsistence and livelihoods. Heat wave, floods (land and coastal), and draughts occur commonly. Malaria, malnutrition, and diarrhea are major public health problems. Any further increase, as projected in weather-related disasters and related health effects, may cripple the already inadequate public health infrastructure in the country. Hence, there is an urgent need to respond to the situation. Response options to protect health from effects of climate change include mitigation as well as adaptation. Both can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the risks of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20163827, year = {2010}, author = {Dale, VH and Tharp, ML and Lannom, KO and Hodges, DG}, title = {Modeling transient response of forests to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {408}, number = {8}, pages = {1888-1901}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.050}, pmid = {20163827}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; Rain ; Southeastern United States ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Our hypothesis is that a high diversity of dominant life forms in Tennessee forests conveys resilience to disturbance such as climate change. Because of uncertainty in climate change and their effects, three climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to simulate a range of potential climate conditions for the state. These climate changes derive from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "A1B" storyline that assumes rapid global economic growth. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in five ecological provinces using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1km cell across the state as aggregated into the provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation differences from the long-term average are more complex but less striking. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions for five ecological provinces from 1989 to 2300. Average output projects changes in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces in Tennessee with the greatest changes in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Projected declines in total tree biomass are followed by biomass recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The Southern Mixed Forest province results in less diversity in dominant trees as well as lower overall biomass than projections for the other four provinces. The biomass and composition changes projected in this study differ from forest dynamics expected without climate change. These results suggest that biomass recovery following climate change is linked to dominant tree diversity in the southeastern forest of the US. The generality of this observation warrants further investigation, for it relates to ways that forest management may influence climate change effects.}, }
@article {pmid20163767, year = {2010}, author = {Kurz, T and Augoustinos, M and Crabb, S}, title = {Contesting the 'national interest' and maintaining 'our lifestyle': a discursive analysis of political rhetoric around climate change.}, journal = {The British journal of social psychology}, volume = {49}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {601-625}, doi = {10.1348/014466609X481173}, pmid = {20163767}, issn = {0144-6665}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Communication ; Deception ; Denial, Psychological ; Humans ; *Life Style ; *Politics ; *Propaganda ; *Public Opinion ; Social Values ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {The release of the fourth United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in February 2007 prompted a flood of responses from political leaders around the globe. Perhaps nowhere was this more apparent than in Australia, where its release coincided with the first sitting week of the Australian Parliament, in an election year. The current study involves a discursive analysis of climate change rhetoric produced by politicians from the major Australian political parties in the period following the release of the IPCC leading up to the national election. Data include both transcripts of parliamentary debate and statements directly broadcast in the media. The analysis focuses on the various ways in which the issue of climate change was invoked and rhetorically managed by each of the two parties in the lead up to the election. In particular, it focuses on the ways in which appeals to the 'national interest' and 'lifestyle maintenance', both regular features of political rhetoric, were mobilized by both parties to discursively manage their positions on the climate change issue. Implications of the ways in which such appeals were constructed are discussed in relation to the discursive limits of the ways in which the issue of climate change is constructed in public debate.}, }
@article {pmid20161598, year = {2009}, author = {Felkner, J and Tazhibayeva, K and Townsend, R}, title = {IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE PRODUCTION IN THAILAND.}, journal = {The American economic review}, volume = {99}, number = {2}, pages = {205-210}, doi = {10.1257/aer.99.2.205}, pmid = {20161598}, issn = {0002-8282}, support = {R01 HD027638/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R01 HD027638-16/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R01 HD027638-17/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid20155369, year = {2010}, author = {Dhiman, RC and Pahwa, S and Dhillon, GP and Dash, AP}, title = {Climate change and threat of vector-borne diseases in India: are we prepared?.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {106}, number = {4}, pages = {763-773}, pmid = {20155369}, issn = {1432-1955}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Disease Vectors ; Helminthiasis/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Humans ; India ; Protozoan Infections/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; *Risk Assessment ; Virus Diseases/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; }, abstract = {It is unequivocal that climate change is happening and is likely to expand the geographical distribution of several vector-borne diseases, including malaria and dengue etc. to higher altitudes and latitudes. India is endemic for six major vector-borne diseases (VBD) namely malaria, dengue, chikungunya, filariasis, Japanese encephalitis and visceral leishmaniasis. Over the years, there has been reduction in the incidence of almost all the diseases except chikungunya which has re-emerged since 2005. The upcoming issue of climate change has surfaced as a new threat and challenge for ongoing efforts to contain vector-borne diseases. There is greater awareness about the potential impacts of climate change on VBDs in India and research institutions and national authorities have initiated actions to assess the impacts. Studies undertaken in India on malaria in the context of climate change impact reveal that transmission windows in Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir and north-eastern states are likely to extend temporally by 2-3 months and in Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu there may be reduction in transmission windows. Using PRECIS model (driven by HadRM2) at the resolution of 50 x 50 Km for daily temperature and relative humidity for year 2050, it was found that Orissa, West Bengal and southern parts of Assam will still remain malarious and transmission windows will open up in Himachal Pradesh and north-eastern states etc. Impact of climate change on dengue also reveals increase in transmission with 2 C rise in temperature in northern India. Re-emergence of kala-azar in northern parts of India and reappearance of chikungunya mainly in southern states of India has also been discussed. The possible need to address the threat and efforts made in India have also been highlighted. The paper concludes with a positive lead that with better preparedness threat of climate change on vector-borne diseases may be negated.}, }
@article {pmid20150473, year = {2010}, author = {Edwards, RL}, title = {Climate change. Ice age rhythms.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {327}, number = {5967}, pages = {790-791}, doi = {10.1126/science.1186256}, pmid = {20150473}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20148671, year = {2010}, author = {Bradshaw, WE and Holzapfel, CM}, title = {Light, time, and the physiology of biotic response to rapid climate change in animals.}, journal = {Annual review of physiology}, volume = {72}, number = {}, pages = {147-166}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-physiol-021909-135837}, pmid = {20148671}, issn = {1545-1585}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics/*physiology ; Animals ; Earth, Planet ; Environment ; *Global Warming ; Hormones/physiology ; Humans ; Light ; Photoperiod ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Examination of temperate and polar regions of Earth shows that the nonbiological world is exquisitely sensitive to the direct effects of temperature, whereas the biological world is largely organized by light. Herein, we discuss the use of day length by animals at physiological and genetic levels, beginning with a comparative experimental study that shows the preeminent role of light in determining fitness in seasonal environments. Typically, at seasonally appropriate times, light initiates a cascade of physiological events mediating the input and interpretation of day length to the output of specific hormones that ultimately determine whether animals prepare to develop, reproduce, hibernate, enter dormancy, or migrate. The mechanisms that form the basis of seasonal time keeping and their adjustment during climate change are reviewed at the physiological and genetic levels. Future avenues for research are proposed that span basic questions from how animals transition from dependency on tropical cues to temperate cues during range expansions, to more applied questions of species survival and conservation biology during periods of climatic stress.}, }
@article {pmid20148669, year = {2010}, author = {Feder, ME}, title = {Physiology and global climate change.}, journal = {Annual review of physiology}, volume = {72}, number = {}, pages = {123-125}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-physiol-091809-100229}, pmid = {20148669}, issn = {1545-1585}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Extinction, Biological ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Physiology ; Population ; }, }
@article {pmid20148028, year = {2010}, author = {Moss, RH and Edmonds, JA and Hibbard, KA and Manning, MR and Rose, SK and van Vuuren, DP and Carter, TR and Emori, S and Kainuma, M and Kram, T and Meehl, GA and Mitchell, JF and Nakicenovic, N and Riahi, K and Smith, SJ and Stouffer, RJ and Thomson, AM and Weyant, JP and Wilbanks, TJ}, title = {The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {463}, number = {7282}, pages = {747-756}, pmid = {20148028}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Ecology/*trends ; *Global Warming/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Human Activities ; Risk Assessment ; Vehicle Emissions ; }, abstract = {Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.}, }
@article {pmid20146767, year = {2010}, author = {Stage, J}, title = {Economic valuation of climate change adaptation in developing countries.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1185}, number = {}, pages = {150-163}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05168.x}, pmid = {20146767}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Acclimatization/physiology ; Agriculture/economics/trends ; Choice Behavior ; Climate ; Climate Change/*economics ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Crops, Agricultural/economics ; Developing Countries/*economics ; Humans ; Insurance/economics ; Poverty ; }, abstract = {This paper reviews the literature on the economics of climate change adaptation in developing countries, and identifies three key points for consideration in future studies. One key point is that all development policy should be formulated using forecasts from climate science as a baseline. When this is not done, there is risk that a false status quo without climate change is seen as an implicit baseline. Another key point is that authors must be clearer about their behavioral assumptions: Many studies either (problematically) assume profit maximization on the side of farm households, or do not specify behavioral assumptions at all. A third important point is that the allocation of rights is crucial for the results; if households have a right to maintain their current livelihoods, the costs of climate change in developing countries are considerably greater than traditional willingness-to-pay studies would indicate. Thus, costs and benefits of climate change adaptation cannot be analyzed using economic aspects only; climate science, behavioral science, and legal and moral aspects have crucial implications for the outcome of the analysis.}, }
@article {pmid20145383, year = {2010}, author = {Mitchell, NJ and Janzen, FJ}, title = {Temperature-dependent sex determination and contemporary climate change.}, journal = {Sexual development : genetics, molecular biology, evolution, endocrinology, embryology, and pathology of sex determination and differentiation}, volume = {4}, number = {1-2}, pages = {129-140}, doi = {10.1159/000282494}, pmid = {20145383}, issn = {1661-5433}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Body Temperature/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Male ; Population Dynamics ; *Sex Determination Processes ; }, abstract = {Whether species that have persisted throughout historic climatic upheavals will survive contemporary climate change will depend on their ecological and physiological traits, their evolutionary potential, and potentially upon the resources that humans commit to prevent their extinction. For those species where temperatures influence sex determination, rapid global warming poses a unique risk of skewed sex ratios and demographic collapse. Here we review the specific mechanisms by which reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) may be imperilled at current rates of warming, and discuss the evidence for and against adaptation via behavioural or physiological means. We propose a scheme for ranking reptiles with TSD according to their vulnerability to rapid global warming, but note that critical data on the lability of the sex determining mechanism and on the heritability of behavioural and threshold traits are unavailable for most species. Nevertheless, we recommend a precautionary approach to management of reptiles identified as being at relatively high risk. In such cases, management should aim to neutralise directional sex ratio biases (e.g. by manipulating incubation temperatures or assisted migration) and promote adaptive processes, possibly by genetic supplementation of populations. These practices should aid species' persistence and buy time for research directed at more accurate prediction of species' vulnerability.}, }
@article {pmid20137997, year = {2010}, author = {Dicke, M and Loreto, F}, title = {Induced plant volatiles: from genes to climate change.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {115-117}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2010.01.007}, pmid = {20137997}, issn = {1878-4372}, mesh = {Animals ; Bibliometrics ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Periodicals as Topic ; Plants/*chemistry/*genetics ; Volatile Organic Compounds/*chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid20137103, year = {2010}, author = {Hughes, R}, title = {Climate change and the public health nutrition agenda.}, journal = {Public health nutrition}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {303}, doi = {10.1017/S1368980010000194}, pmid = {20137103}, issn = {1475-2727}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Food Supply ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Nutrition Policy ; Nutritional Sciences/*trends ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid20137102, year = {2010}, author = {Yngve, A and Margetts, B and Tseng, M and Hughes, R and Cannon, G}, title = {Climate change: time to redefine our profession.}, journal = {Public health nutrition}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {301-302}, doi = {10.1017/S1368980010000054}, pmid = {20137102}, issn = {1475-2727}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Humans ; Public Health/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid20133854, year = {2010}, author = {Forister, ML and McCall, AC and Sanders, NJ and Fordyce, JA and Thorne, JH and O'Brien, J and Waetjen, DP and Shapiro, AM}, title = {Compounded effects of climate change and habitat alteration shift patterns of butterfly diversity.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {107}, number = {5}, pages = {2088-2092}, pmid = {20133854}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Butterflies ; California ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Endangered Species ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change and habitat destruction have been linked to global declines in vertebrate biodiversity, including mammals, amphibians, birds, and fishes. However, invertebrates make up the vast majority of global species richness, and the combined effects of climate change and land use on invertebrates remain poorly understood. Here we present 35 years of data on 159 species of butterflies from 10 sites along an elevational gradient spanning 0-2,775 m in a biodiversity hotspot, the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Northern California. Species richness has declined at half of the sites, with the most severe reductions at the lowest elevations, where habitat destruction is greatest. At higher elevations, we observed clear upward shifts in the elevational ranges of species, consistent with the influence of global warming. Taken together, these long-term data reveal the interacting negative effects of human-induced changes on both the climate and habitat available to butterfly species in California. Furthermore, the decline of ruderal, disturbance-associated species indicates that the traditional focus of conservation efforts on more specialized and less dispersive species should be broadened to include entire faunas when estimating and predicting the effects of pervasive stressors.}, }
@article {pmid20132739, year = {2009}, author = {Pencheon, D and Rissel, CE and Hadfield, G and Madden, DL}, title = {Health sector leadership in mitigating climate change: experience from the UK and NSW.}, journal = {New South Wales public health bulletin}, volume = {20}, number = {11-12}, pages = {173-176}, doi = {10.1071/NB09044}, pmid = {20132739}, issn = {1034-7674}, mesh = {Air Pollution/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; Carbon/adverse effects/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; Health Care Sector/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Leadership ; New South Wales ; State Medicine ; Travel ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {The threat to human health from climate change means that all levels of government and private and public agencies will need to change their current practices to reduce carbon emissions. The health sector will also need to respond and change practice. The National Health Service in the United Kingdom is developing a systematic and strategic approach to reduce its carbon footprint, as described in the recently released NHS Carbon Reduction Strategy for England. The work is being led by the Service's new Sustainable Development Unit. While the Australian health care system has not yet embraced a shared vision for carbon reduction, there are examples emerging of how the sector is contributing to reduce greenhouse gas production. Examples from two NSW area health services to reduce energy use and promote active transport are presented. In both countries, these changes are supported by new legislation and policy.}, }
@article {pmid20130954, year = {2010}, author = {Ma, W and Liu, Z and Wang, Z and Wang, W and Liang, C and Tang, Y and He, JS and Fang, J}, title = {Climate change alters interannual variation of grassland aboveground productivity: evidence from a 22-year measurement series in the Inner Mongolian grassland.}, journal = {Journal of plant research}, volume = {123}, number = {4}, pages = {509-517}, pmid = {20130954}, issn = {1618-0860}, mesh = {*Biomass ; China ; *Climate Change ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Rain ; Regression Analysis ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is known to influence interannual variation in grassland aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), or seasonal biomass, but direct, long-term ground observations are rare. We present a 22-year (1982-2003) measurement series from the Inner Mongolia grassland, China, to examine the effect of climate change on interannual variations in ANPP and monthly aboveground biomass (MAB). ANPP exhibited no increase over 1982-2003 but there was an association with previous-year precipitation. MAB in May increased by 21.8% from 47.8 g m(-2) (averaged for 1982-1984) to 58.2 g m(-2) (2001-2003), whereas there was no significant variation in June, July and August, and a decrease of 29.7% in September. The MAB increase in May was correlated with increases in precipitation and temperature in the preceding months. These findings suggest that the effects of climate change on grassland production vary throughout the growing season, with warmer and wetter springs resulting in increased biomass early in the growing season, and drier falls causing a decrease in biomass late in the growing season.}, }
@article {pmid20126652, year = {2010}, author = {Willis, CG and Ruhfel, BR and Primack, RB and Miller-Rushing, AJ and Losos, JB and Davis, CC}, title = {Favorable climate change response explains non-native species' success in Thoreau's woods.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {e8878}, pmid = {20126652}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Massachusetts ; Plants/*classification ; }, abstract = {Invasive species have tremendous detrimental ecological and economic impacts. Climate change may exacerbate species invasions across communities if non-native species are better able to respond to climate changes than native species. Recent evidence indicates that species that respond to climate change by adjusting their phenology (i.e., the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering) have historically increased in abundance. The extent to which non-native species success is similarly linked to a favorable climate change response, however, remains untested. We analyzed a dataset initiated by the conservationist Henry David Thoreau that documents the long-term phenological response of native and non-native plant species over the last 150 years from Concord, Massachusetts (USA). Our results demonstrate that non-native species, and invasive species in particular, have been far better able to respond to recent climate change by adjusting their flowering time. This demonstrates that climate change has likely played, and may continue to play, an important role in facilitating non-native species naturalization and invasion at the community level.}, }
@article {pmid20123636, year = {2010}, author = {Weinhold, B}, title = {Climate change and health: a Native American perspective.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {118}, number = {2}, pages = {A64-5}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.118-a64}, pmid = {20123636}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Environmental Health ; *Health ; Humans ; *Indians, North American ; }, }
@article {pmid20121843, year = {2010}, author = {Hannah, L}, title = {A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {70-77}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01405.x}, pmid = {20121843}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *International Cooperation ; }, abstract = {Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway.}, }
@article {pmid20121841, year = {2010}, author = {Wiens, JA and Bachelet, D}, title = {Matching the multiple scales of conservation with the multiple scales of climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {51-62}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01409.x}, pmid = {20121841}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {To anticipate the rapidly changing world resulting from global climate change, the projections of climate models must be incorporated into conservation. This requires that the scales of conservation be aligned with the scales of climate-change projections. We considered how conservation has incorporated spatial scale into protecting biodiversity, how the projections of climate-change models vary with scale, and how the two do or do not align. Conservation planners use information about past and current ecological conditions at multiple scales to identify conservation targets and threats and guide conservation actions. Projections of climate change are also made at multiple scales, from global and regional circulation models to projections downscaled to local scales. These downscaled projections carry with them the uncertainties associated with the broad-scale models from which they are derived; thus, their high resolution may be more apparent than real. Conservation at regional or global scales is about establishing priorities and influencing policy. At these scales, the coarseness and uncertainties of global and regional climate models may be less important than what they reveal about possible futures. At the ecoregional scale, the uncertainties associated with downscaling climate models become more critical because the distributions of conservation targets on which plans are founded may shift under future climates. At a local scale, variations in topography and land cover influence local climate, often overriding the projections of broad-scale climate models and increasing uncertainty. Despite the uncertainties, ecologists and conservationists must work with climate-change modelers to focus on the most likely projections. The future will be different from the past and full of surprises; judicious use of model projections at appropriate scales may help us prepare.}, }
@article {pmid20121837, year = {2010}, author = {Serreze, MC}, title = {Understanding recent climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {10-17}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01408.x}, pmid = {20121837}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.}, }
@article {pmid20121836, year = {2010}, author = {Belant, JL and Beever, EA and Gross, JE and Lawler, JJ}, title = {Ecological responses to contemporary climate change within species, communities, and ecosystems. Introduction.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {7-9}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01402.x}, pmid = {20121836}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; *Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; }, }
@article {pmid20116248, year = {2010}, author = {Both, C}, title = {Flexibility of timing of avian migration to climate change masked by environmental constraints en route.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {243-248}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2009.11.074}, pmid = {20116248}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Africa, Northern ; Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Environment ; Female ; Male ; Passeriformes/*physiology ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {During the past decades, phenology of many organisms has advanced in response to climate change [1]. Earlier arrival of long-distance migrants has been reported frequently [2, 3], but advancements of arrival and breeding were not always sufficient to match phenology at other trophic levels [4]. This has led to increased selection for early breeding [5] and severe population declines [6, 7]. This inadequate response has been explained by an inflexible start of migration, governed by cues unrelated to climate change, such as photoperiod [8]. It has been suggested that evolution at the genetic level is required for a change in photoresponsiveness [9]. Recently, such an evolutionary change in migration timing was suggested [10]. Here I show that timing of spring migration of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) has responded flexibly to climate change. Recovery dates during spring migration in Northern Africa advanced by ten days between 1980 and 2002, which was explained by improving Sahel rainfall and a phenotypic effect of birth date. The lack of advance on the breeding grounds most likely was due to environmental constraints during migration. Adjustment of arrival date in migrants to climate change could thus be rapid, but only if circumstances favorably change for the whole journey.}, }
@article {pmid20114000, year = {2010}, author = {Ebi, KL and Paulson, JA}, title = {Climate change and child health in the United States.}, journal = {Current problems in pediatric and adolescent health care}, volume = {40}, number = {1}, pages = {2-18}, doi = {10.1016/j.cppeds.2009.12.001}, pmid = {20114000}, issn = {1538-3199}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Welfare ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid20113999, year = {2010}, author = {Etzel, RA}, title = {Climate change and child health in the United States. Foreword.}, journal = {Current problems in pediatric and adolescent health care}, volume = {40}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1016/j.cppeds.2009.12.002}, pmid = {20113999}, issn = {1538-3199}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Welfare ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid20112056, year = {2010}, author = {Nusbaum, NJ}, title = {Dairy livestock methane remediation and global warming.}, journal = {Journal of community health}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {500-502}, pmid = {20112056}, issn = {1573-3610}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry/methods ; Animals ; Cattle/*physiology ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation/*methods ; Flatulence ; Gases/metabolism ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Greenhouse Effect/prevention &amp; control ; Methane/*metabolism ; Probiotics ; }, abstract = {One of the major greenhouse gases is the methane released from ruminants. Greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural portion of the economy may benefit from biologically based remediation strategies, including potential use of probiotics in animal husbandry. A broad range of disciplines (including climatologists, microbiologists, biochemists, physical chemists, agricultural economists) can assist in biological strategies to reduce agricultural methane emissions.}, }
@article {pmid20110487, year = {2010}, author = {Blackstock, JJ and Long, JC}, title = {Climate change. The politics of geoengineering.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {327}, number = {5965}, pages = {527}, doi = {10.1126/science.1183877}, pmid = {20110487}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20110466, year = {2010}, author = {Solomon, S and Rosenlof, KH and Portmann, RW and Daniel, JS and Davis, SM and Sanford, TJ and Plattner, GK}, title = {Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {327}, number = {5970}, pages = {1219-1223}, doi = {10.1126/science.1182488}, pmid = {20110466}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the year 2000. Here we show that this acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over 2000-2009 by about 25% compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. More limited data suggest that stratospheric water vapor probably increased between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface warming during the 1990s by about 30% as compared to estimates neglecting this change. These findings show that stratospheric water vapor is an important driver of decadal global surface climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20108137, year = {2010}, author = {Prato, T and Zeyuan, Q and Pederson, G and Fagre, D and Bengtson, LE and Williams, JR}, title = {Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {45}, number = {3}, pages = {577-589}, pmid = {20108137}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics/*methods ; *Climate Change ; Community Participation ; Computer Simulation ; Crops, Agricultural ; Income ; Models, Theoretical ; Montana ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, abstract = {Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.}, }
@article {pmid20102011, year = {2009}, author = {Allen, CE}, title = {The challenges of climate change.}, journal = {The Alabama nurse}, volume = {36}, number = {4}, pages = {11-6; quiz 17}, pmid = {20102011}, issn = {0002-4317}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Environment ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Nurse's Role ; Research ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid20101926, year = {2009}, author = {Ariano, R}, title = {Climate change and increase of allergic diseases.}, journal = {European annals of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {41}, number = {5}, pages = {136-138}, pmid = {20101926}, issn = {1764-1489}, mesh = {Antigens, Plant/immunology ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology/immunology ; Prevalence ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid20098495, year = {2010}, author = {González, C and Wang, O and Strutz, SE and González-Salazar, C and Sánchez-Cordero, V and Sarkar, S}, title = {Climate change and risk of leishmaniasis in north america: predictions from ecological niche models of vector and reservoir species.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {e585}, pmid = {20098495}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; *Ecology ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/parasitology ; Leishmaniasis/*epidemiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; North America/epidemiology ; Psychodidae/parasitology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is increasingly being implicated in species' range shifts throughout the world, including those of important vector and reservoir species for infectious diseases. In North America (México, United States, and Canada), leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease that is autochthonous in México and Texas and has begun to expand its range northward. Further expansion to the north may be facilitated by climate change as more habitat becomes suitable for vector and reservoir species for leishmaniasis.<br><br>METHODS AND FINDINGS: The analysis began with the construction of ecological niche models using a maximum entropy algorithm for the distribution of two sand fly vector species (Lutzomyia anthophora and L. diabolica), three confirmed rodent reservoir species (Neotoma albigula, N. floridana, and N. micropus), and one potential rodent reservoir species (N. mexicana) for leishmaniasis in northern M&#xe9;xico and the United States. As input, these models used species' occurrence records with topographic and climatic parameters as explanatory variables. Models were tested for their ability to predict correctly both a specified fraction of occurrence points set aside for this purpose and occurrence points from an independently derived data set. These models were refined to obtain predicted species' geographical distributions under increasingly strict assumptions about the ability of a species to disperse to suitable habitat and to persist in it, as modulated by its ecological suitability. Models successful at predictions were fitted to the extreme A2 and relatively conservative B2 projected climate scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using publicly available interpolated climate data from the Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Further analyses included estimation of the projected human population that could potentially be exposed to leishmaniasis in 2020, 2050, and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios. All confirmed vector and reservoir species will see an expansion of their potential range towards the north. Thus, leishmaniasis has the potential to expand northwards from M&#xe9;xico and the southern United States. In the eastern United States its spread is predicted to be limited by the range of L. diabolica; further west, L. anthophora may play the same role. In the east it may even reach the southern boundary of Canada. The risk of spread is greater for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario. Even in the latter case, with restrictive (contiguous) models for dispersal of vector and reservoir species, and limiting vector and reservoir species occupancy to only the top 10% of their potential suitable habitat, the expected number of human individuals exposed to leishmaniasis by 2080 will at least double its present value.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: These models predict that climate change will exacerbate the ecological risk of human exposure to leishmaniasis in areas outside its present range in the United States and, possibly, in parts of southern Canada. This prediction suggests the adoption of measures such as surveillance for leishmaniasis north of Texas as disease cases spread northwards. Potential vector and reservoir control strategies-besides direct intervention in disease cases-should also be further investigated.}, }
@article {pmid20093442, year = {2010}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. Models foresee more-intense hurricanes in the greenhouse.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {327}, number = {5964}, pages = {399}, doi = {10.1126/science.327.5964.399}, pmid = {20093442}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20091322, year = {2010}, author = {Matzarakis, A and Endler, C}, title = {Climate change and thermal bioclimate in cities: impacts and options for adaptation in Freiburg, Germany.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {479-483}, pmid = {20091322}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature/adverse effects ; Germany ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Meteorological Concepts ; Urban Health ; }, abstract = {The concept of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of thermal bioclimatic conditions in Freiburg, Germany, to show if days with extreme bioclimatic conditions will change and how extreme thermal conditions can be modified by changes in mean radiant temperature and wind speed. The results show that there will be an increase of days with heat stress (PET > 35 degrees C) in the order of 5% (from 9.2% for 1961-1990) and a decrease of days with cold stress (PET < 0 degrees C) from 16.4% to 3.8% per year. The conditions can be modified by measures modifying radiation and wind speed in the order of more than 10% of days per year by reducing global radiation in complex structures or urban areas.}, }
@article {pmid20084523, year = {2010}, author = {Shoo, LP and Storlie, C and Williams, YM and Williams, SE}, title = {Potential for mountaintop boulder fields to buffer species against extreme heat stress under climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {475-478}, pmid = {20084523}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Animals ; Anura/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Geological Phenomena ; Heat Stress Disorders/prevention &amp; control/*veterinary ; Hot Temperature ; *Microclimate ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Species may circumvent or minimize some impacts resulting from climate change by utilizing microhabitats that buffer against extreme events (e.g., heat waves). Boulder field habitats are considered to have functioned as important refugia for rainforest fauna during historical climate fluctuations. However, quantitative data on microhabitat buffering potential in these habitats is lacking. We characterized temperature buffering over small distances (i.e., depths) within an exposed and forested boulder field on a tropical mountain. We demonstrate that temperatures are cooler and become more stable at increasing depths within boulder fields. The magnitude of difference is most pronounced in exposed situations where temperatures within boulder fields can be as much as 10 degrees C lower than near surface conditions. Our data provide a first step toward building models that more realistically predict exposure to heat stress for fauna that utilize rocky habitats.}, }
@article {pmid20082115, year = {2009}, author = {McMichael, AJ and Wilcox, BA}, title = {Climate change, human health, and integrative research: a transformative imperative.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {163-164}, doi = {10.1007/s10393-009-0262-9}, pmid = {20082115}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid20080481, year = {2010}, author = {Slenning, BD}, title = {Global climate change and implications for disease emergence.}, journal = {Veterinary pathology}, volume = {47}, number = {1}, pages = {28-33}, doi = {10.1177/0300985809354465}, pmid = {20080481}, issn = {1544-2217}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/etiology ; Animals ; Animals, Domestic ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*etiology ; Ecosystem ; Global Health ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The early consequences of global climate change (GCC) are well documented. However, future impacts on ecosystem health, and on the health of humans, domestic animals, and wildlife, are much less well understood. Evidence of increasing frequency of extreme weather events (the 2003 trans-European heat wave, extended droughts in Australia and South America), of geographic changes in vector-borne disease (bluetongue and hanta viruses emerging in northern Europe, dengue virus expanding in central and northern America), and of altered animal behavioral responses (changes in bird migration patterns and fishery numbers) warrants action. To make valid choices, however, practitioners and decision makers must understand what is known about GCC and what is only theory. There will be a multitude of microbial, vector, and host responses to climate change, for example, and not all organisms will respond similarly or across equal time scales. Unfortunately, for many organisms and ecosystems the scientific community has a relatively poor understanding of current effectors and balances, making it problematic to describe the current situation, let alone to validate future predictions. The need for enhanced basic research and systematic surveillance programs is obvious, but putting such programs into place is daunting. However, the threats are real and fast approaching. What is done in the next few years may be decisive, whether for the good or the ill of all.}, }
@article {pmid20078636, year = {2009}, author = {Gibson, SY and Van der Marel, RC and Starzomski, BM}, title = {Climate change and conservation of leading-edge peripheral populations.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {23}, number = {6}, pages = {1369-1373}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01375.x}, pmid = {20078636}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Biodiversity ; Canada ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Geography ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; }, }
@article {pmid20078565, year = {2009}, author = {Woodward, A}, title = {Copenhagen, climate change, revolutions and public health.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {505-506}, doi = {10.1111/j.1753-6405.2009.00444.x}, pmid = {20078565}, issn = {1753-6405}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Congresses as Topic ; Denmark ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid20077587, year = {2010}, author = {Page, LA and Howard, LM}, title = {The impact of climate change on mental health (but will mental health be discussed at Copenhagen?).}, journal = {Psychological medicine}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {177-180}, doi = {10.1017/s0033291709992169}, pmid = {20077587}, issn = {1469-8978}, support = {//Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate ; Denmark ; Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders ; Economics ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Mental Disorders/diagnosis/*epidemiology/*psychology ; }, abstract = {Climate change will shortly be assuming centre stage when Copenhagen hosts the United Nations Climate Change Conference in early December 2009. In Copenhagen, delegates will discuss the international response to climate change (i.e. the ongoing increase in the Earth's average surface temperature) and the meeting is widely viewed as the most important of its kind ever held (http://en.cop15.dk/). International agreement will be sought on a treaty to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. At the time of writing it is not known whether agreement will be reached on the main issues of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and financing the impacts of climate change, and it appears that the impact of climate change on mental health is unlikely to be on the agenda. We discuss here how climate change could have consequences for global mental health and consider the implications for future research and policy.}, }
@article {pmid20072771, year = {2009}, author = {Bryant, L and Carver, L and Butler, CD and Anage, A}, title = {Climate change and family planning: least-developed countries define the agenda.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {87}, number = {11}, pages = {852-857}, pmid = {20072771}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Demography ; *Developing Countries ; Family Planning Services/*organization &amp; administration ; HIV Infections/prevention &amp; control/therapy ; Human Rights ; Humans ; Population Control ; Population Growth ; Reproductive Health Services/organization &amp; administration ; United Nations/organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {The links between rapid population growth and concerns regarding climate change have received little attention. Some commentators have argued that slowing population growth is necessary to reduce further rises in carbon emissions. Others have objected that this would give rise to dehumanizing 'population control' programmes in developing countries. Yet the perspective of the developing countries that will be worst affected by climate change has been almost completely ignored by the scientific literature. This deficit is addressed by this paper, which analyses the first 40 National Adaptation Programmes of Action reports submitted by governments of least-developed countries to the Global Environment Facility for funding. Of these documents, 93% identified at least one of three ways in which demographic trends interact with the effects of climate change: (i) faster degradation of the sources of natural resources; (ii) increased demand for scarce resources; and (iii) heightened human vulnerability to extreme weather events. These findings suggest that voluntary access to family planning services should be made more available to poor communities in least-developed countries. We stress the distinction between this approach, which prioritizes the welfare of poor communities affected by climate change, and the argument that population growth should be slowed to limit increases in global carbon emissions. The paper concludes by calling for increased support for rights-based family planning services, including those integrated with HIV/AIDS services, as an important complementary measure to climate change adaptation programmes in developing countries.}, }
@article {pmid20070264, year = {2010}, author = {Bota, GW}, title = {Emergency medicine and climate change: our role in helping to explain a difficult concept.}, journal = {Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {227-8; author reply 229}, doi = {10.1111/j.1553-2712.2009.00653.x}, pmid = {20070264}, issn = {1553-2712}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Emergency Medicine ; Humans ; Reproducibility of Results ; Science ; }, }
@article {pmid20069996, year = {2009}, author = {Hamilton, JD}, title = {Climate change and health vulnerabilities.}, journal = {Minnesota medicine}, volume = {92}, number = {11}, pages = {35-37}, pmid = {20069996}, issn = {0026-556X}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; Forecasting ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Morbidity/*trends ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid20069198, year = {2009}, author = {Ebi, K and McGregor, G}, title = {Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, and health impacts.}, journal = {Ciencia &amp; saude coletiva}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {2281-2293}, doi = {10.1590/s1413-81232009000600037}, pmid = {20069198}, issn = {1678-4561}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Atmosphere ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; *Ozone ; *Particulate Matter ; }, abstract = {We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health, as well as studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and the impacts of these changes on morbidity/mortality. Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty are the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given the uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, increasing morbidity/mortality. There are few projections for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, because few studies have been conducted. More research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution-related health impacts.}, }
@article {pmid20067491, year = {2010}, author = {Beier, P and Brost, B}, title = {Use of land facets to plan for climate change: conserving the arenas, not the actors.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {701-710}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01422.x}, pmid = {20067491}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecology ; Models, Theoretical ; Soil ; }, abstract = {Even under the most optimistic scenarios, during the next century human-caused climate change will threaten many wild populations and species. The most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. To prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air-ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). This approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. Instead, we advocate identifying land facets-recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes-and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units. This coarse-filter approach would conserve the arenas of biological activity, rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. Integrative, context-sensitive variables, such as insolation and topographic wetness, are useful for defining land facets. Classification procedures such as k-means or fuzzy clustering are a good way to define land facets because they can analyze millions of pixels and are insensitive to case order. In regions lacking useful soil maps, river systems or riparian plants can indicate important facets. Conservation planners should set higher representation targets for rare and distinctive facets. High interspersion of land facets can promote ecological processes, evolutionary interaction, and range shift. Relevant studies suggest land-facet diversity is a good surrogate for today's biodiversity, but fails to conserve some species. To minimize such failures, a reserve design based on land facets should complement, rather than replace, other approaches. Designs based on land facets are not biased toward data-rich areas and can be applied where no maps of land cover exist.}, }
@article {pmid20056301, year = {2010}, author = {Grulke, NE}, title = {Plasticity in physiological traits in conifers: implications for response to climate change in the western U.S.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {158}, number = {6}, pages = {2032-2042}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2009.12.010}, pmid = {20056301}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Altitude ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; Plant Leaves/chemistry/growth &amp; development/metabolism/physiology ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Plant Stomata/chemistry/growth &amp; development/metabolism/physiology ; Southwestern United States ; Tracheophyta/chemistry/growth &amp; development/metabolism/*physiology ; Water/metabolism ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Population variation in ecophysiological traits of four co-occurring montane conifers was measured on a large latitudinal gradient to quantitatively assess their potential for response to environmental change. White fir (Abies concolor) had the highest variability, gross photosynthetic rate (Pg), and foliar carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content. Despite low water use efficiency (WUE), stomatal conductance (gs) of fir was the most responsive to unfavorable environmental conditions. Pinus lambertiana exhibited the least variability in Pg and WUE, and is likely to be the most vulnerable to environmental changes. Pinus ponderosa had an intermediate level of variability, and high needle growth at its higher elevational limits. Pinus Jeffreyi also had intermediate variability, but high needle growth at its southern latitudinal and lower elevational limits. The attributes used to assess tree vigor were effective in predicting population vulnerability to abiotic (drought) and biotic (herbivore) stresses.}, }
@article {pmid20055486, year = {2010}, author = {Zhao, S and Liu, S and Li, Z and Sohl, TL}, title = {Federal land management, carbon sequestration, and climate change in the Southeastern U.S.: a case study with Fort Benning.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {3}, pages = {992-997}, doi = {10.1021/es9009019}, pmid = {20055486}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Carbon/*chemistry ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Government Regulation ; Soil ; Southeastern United States ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Land use activities can have a major impact on the temporal trends and spatial patterns of regional land-atmosphere exchange of carbon. Federal lands generally have substantially different land management strategies from surrounding areas, and the carbon consequences have rarely been quantified and assessed. Using the Fort Benning Installation as a case study, we used the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) to simulate and compare ecosystem carbon sequestration between the U.S. Army's Fort Benning and surrounding areas from 1992 to 2050. Our results indicate that the military installation sequestered more carbon than surrounding areas from 1992 to 2007 (76.7 vs 18.5 g C m(-2) yr(-1)), and is projected to continue sequestering more carbon from 2008 to 2050 (75.7 vs 25.6 g C m(-2) yr(-1)), mostly because of the proactive management approaches adopted on military training lands. Our results suggest that federal lands might play a positive and important role in sequestering and conserving atmospheric carbon because some anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., urbanization, forest harvesting, and agriculture) can be minimized or prevented on federal lands.}, }
@article {pmid20052432, year = {2009}, author = {Rydén, P and Sjöstedt, A and Johansson, A}, title = {Effects of climate change on tularaemia disease activity in Sweden.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {20052432}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {Tularaemia is a vector-borne infectious disease. A large majority of cases transmitted to humans by blood-feeding arthropods occur during the summer season and is linked to increased temperatures. Therefore, the effect of climate change is likely to have an effect on tularaemia transmission patterns in highly endemic areas of Sweden. In this report, we use simulated climate change scenario data and empirical data of temperatures critical to tularaemia transmission to forecast tularaemia outbreak activity. The five high-endemic counties: Dalarna, Gävleborg, Norrbotten, Värmland and Orebro represent only 14.6% of the total population of Sweden, but have recorded 40.1-81.1% of the number of annual human tularaemia in Sweden from 1997 until 2008. We project here earlier starts and a later termination of future tularaemia outbreaks for the time period 2010-2100. For five localised outbreak areas; Gagnef (Dalarna), Ljusdal (Gävleborg), Harads (Norrbotten), Karlstad (Värmland) and Orebro municipality (Orebro), the climate scenario suggests an approximately 2 degrees C increase in monthly average summer temperatures leading to increases in outbreak durations ranging from 3.5 weeks (Harads) to 6.6 weeks (Karlstad) between 2010 and 2100. In contrast, an analysis of precipitation scenarios indicates fairly stable projected levels of precipitation during the summer months. Thus, there should not be an increased abundance of late summer mosquitoes that are believed to be main vectors for transmission to humans in these areas. In conclusion, the results indicate that the future climate changes will lead to an increased burden of tularaemia in high-endemic areas of Sweden during the coming decades.}, }
@article {pmid20052431, year = {2009}, author = {Evengård, B and Sauerborn, R}, title = {Climate change influences infectious diseases both in the Arctic and the tropics: joining the dots.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {20052431}, issn = {1654-9880}, }
@article {pmid20052425, year = {2009}, author = {Kjellstrom, T and Gabrysch, S and Lemke, B and Dear, K}, title = {The 'Hothaps' programme for assessing climate change impacts on occupational health and productivity: an invitation to carry out field studies.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {20052425}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {The 'high occupational temperature health and productivity suppression' programme (Hothaps) is a multi-centre health research and prevention programme aimed at quantifying the extent to which working people are affected by, or adapt to, heat exposure while working, and how global heating during climate change may increase such effects. The programme will produce essential new evidence for local, national and global assessment of negative impacts of climate change that have largely been overlooked. It will also identify and evaluate preventive interventions in different social and economic settings.Hothaps includes studies in any part of the world where hourly heat exposure exceeds physiological stress limits that may affect workers. This usually happens at temperatures above 25 degrees C, depending on humidity, wind movement and heat radiation. Working people in low and middle-income tropical countries are particularly vulnerable, because many of them are involved in heavy physical work, either outdoors in strong sunlight or indoors without effective cooling. If high work intensity is maintained in workplaces with high heat exposure, serious health effects can occur, including heat stroke and death.Depending on the type of occupation, the required work intensity, and the level of heat stress, working people have to slow down their work in order to reduce internal body heat production and the risk of heat stroke. Thus, unless preventive interventions are used to reduce the heat stress on workers, their individual health and productivity will be affected and economic output per work hour will be reduced. Heat also influences other daily physical activities, unrelated to work, in all age groups. Poorer people without access to household or workplace cooling devices are most likely to be affected.The Hothaps programme includes a pilot study, heat monitoring of selected workplaces, qualitative studies of perceived heat impacts and preventative interventions, quantitative studies of impacts on health and productivity, and assessments of local impacts of climate change taking into account different applications of preventative interventions.Fundraising for the global programme is in progress and has enabled local field studies to start in 2009. Local funding support is also of great value and is being sought by several interested scientific partners. The Hothaps team welcomes independent use of the study protocols, but would be grateful for information about any planned, ongoing or completed studies of this type. Coordinated implementation of the protocols in multi-centre studies is also welcome. Eventually, the results of the Hothaps field studies will be used in global assessments of climate change-induced heat exposure increase in workplaces and its impacts on occupational health and productivity. These results will also be of value for the next assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013.}, }
@article {pmid20052422, year = {2009}, author = {Kjellstrom, T and Holmer, I and Lemke, B}, title = {Workplace heat stress, health and productivity - an increasing challenge for low and middle-income countries during climate change.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {20052422}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global climate change is already increasing the average temperature and direct heat exposure in many places around the world.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To assess the potential impact on occupational health and work capacity for people exposed at work to increasing heat due to climate change.<br><br>DESIGN: A brief review of basic thermal physiology mechanisms, occupational heat exposure guidelines and heat exposure changes in selected cities.<br><br>RESULTS: In countries with very hot seasons, workers are already affected by working environments hotter than that with which human physiological mechanisms can cope. To protect workers from excessive heat, a number of heat exposure indices have been developed. One that is commonly used in occupational health is the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT). We use WBGT to illustrate assessing the proportion of a working hour during which a worker can sustain work and the proportion of that same working hour that (s)he needs to rest to cool the body down and maintain core body temperature below 38 degrees C. Using this proportion a 'work capacity' estimate was calculated for selected heat exposure levels and work intensity levels. The work capacity rapidly reduces as the WBGT exceeds 26-30 degrees C and this can be used to estimate the impact of increasing heat exposure as a result of climate change in tropical countries.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: One result of climate change is a reduced work capacity in heat-exposed jobs and greater difficulty in achieving economic and social development in the countries affected by this somewhat neglected impact of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid20052421, year = {2009}, author = {Byass, P}, title = {Climate change and population health in Africa: where are the scientists?.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {20052421}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {Despite a growing awareness of Africans' vulnerability to climate change, there is relatively little empirical evidence published about the effects of climate on population health in Africa. This review brings together some of the generalised predictions about the potential continent-wide effects of climate change with examples of the relatively few locally documented population studies in which climate change and health interact. Although ecologically determined diseases such as malaria are obvious candidates for susceptibility to climate change, wider health effects also need to be considered, particularly among populations where adequacy of food and water supplies may already be marginal.}, }
@article {pmid20052420, year = {2009}, author = {Parkinson, AJ and Evengård, B}, title = {Climate change, its impact on human health in the Arctic and the public health response to threats of emerging infectious diseases.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {20052420}, issn = {1654-9880}, }
@article {pmid20052315, year = {2009}, author = {Bambrick, HJ and Woodruff, RE and Hanigan, IC}, title = {Climate change could threaten blood supply by altering the distribution of vector-borne disease: an Australian case-study.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {20052315}, issn = {1654-9880}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to promote more intense and prolonged outbreaks of vector-borne disease, and alter the geographic boundaries of transmission. This has implications for the safety and supply of fresh blood products around the world. In Australia, a recent outbreak of dengue fever caused a prolonged regional shortage in the supply of fresh blood products.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: To highlight the potential for climate change to affect the safety and supply of blood globally through its impact on vector-borne disease, using the example of dengue in Australia as a case-study.<br><br>DESIGN: We modelled geographic regions in Australia suitable for dengue transmission over the coming century under four climate change scenarios, estimated changes to the population at risk and effect on blood supply.<br><br>RESULTS: Geographic regions with climates that are favourable to dengue transmission could expand to include large population centres in a number of currently dengue-free regions in Australia and reduce blood supply across several states.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Unless there is strong intergovernmental action on greenhouse gas reduction, there could be an eight-fold increase in the number of people living in dengue prone regions in Australia by the end of the century. Similar impacts will be experienced elsewhere and for other vector-borne diseases, with regions currently on the margins of transmission zones most affected. Globally, climate change is likely to compound existing problems of blood safety and supply in already endemic areas and cause future shortages in fresh blood products through its impact on transmission of vector-borne disease.}, }
@article {pmid20049179, year = {2009}, author = {Glass, R and Rosenthal, J and Jessup, CM and Birnbaum, L and Portier, C}, title = {Tackling the research challenges of health and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {12}, pages = {A534}, pmid = {20049179}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; National Institutes of Health (U.S.) ; *Public Health ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid20049116, year = {2009}, author = {English, PB and Sinclair, AH and Ross, Z and Anderson, H and Boothe, V and Davis, C and Ebi, K and Kagey, B and Malecki, K and Shultz, R and Simms, E}, title = {Environmental health indicators of climate change for the United States: findings from the State Environmental Health Indicator Collaborative.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {11}, pages = {1673-1681}, pmid = {20049116}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate ; *Environmental Health ; Health Policy ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Public Health/methods ; Risk Assessment/methods ; United States ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To develop public health adaptation strategies and to project the impacts of climate change on human health, indicators of vulnerability and preparedness along with accurate surveillance data on climate-sensitive health outcomes are needed. We researched and developed environmental health indicators for inputs into human health vulnerability assessments for climate change and to propose public health preventative actions.<br><br>DATA SOURCES: We conducted a review of the scientific literature to identify outcomes and actions that were related to climate change. Data sources included governmental and nongovernmental agencies and the published literature.<br><br>DATA EXTRACTION: Sources were identified and assessed for completeness, usability, and accuracy. Priority was then given to identifying longitudinal data sets that were applicable at the state and community level.<br><br>DATA SYNTHESIS: We present a list of surveillance indicators for practitioners and policy makers that include climate-sensitive health outcomes and environmental and vulnerability indicators, as well as mitigation, adaptation, and policy indicators of climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: A review of environmental health indicators for climate change shows that data exist for many of these measures, but more evaluation of their sensitivity and usefulness is needed. Further attention is necessary to increase data quality and availability and to develop new surveillance databases, especially for climate-sensitive morbidity.}, }
@article {pmid20049107, year = {2009}, author = {Weinhold, B}, title = {Sentinel symptoms of climate change: indicators for related health effects.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {11}, pages = {A504}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.117-a504a}, pmid = {20049107}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Aged ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Child ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Pregnancy ; Public Health ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid20045359, year = {2010}, author = {Kivaria, FM}, title = {Climate change and the epidemiology of tick-borne diseases of cattle in Africa.}, journal = {Veterinary journal (London, England : 1997)}, volume = {184}, number = {1}, pages = {7-8}, doi = {10.1016/j.tvjl.2009.12.003}, pmid = {20045359}, issn = {1532-2971}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/*growth &amp; development/microbiology/parasitology ; Cattle ; Cattle Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Global Warming ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Tick-Borne Diseases/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Ticks/*growth &amp; development/microbiology/parasitology ; }, }
@article {pmid20044546, year = {2010}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Senate looms as bigger hurdle after Copenhagen.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {327}, number = {5961}, pages = {19-21}, doi = {10.1126/science.327.5961.19}, pmid = {20044546}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20042492, year = {2009}, author = {Wilks, M}, title = {"Greenwash" at the climate change summit in Copenhagen.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {339}, number = {}, pages = {b5616}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.b5616}, pmid = {20042492}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Denmark ; Humans ; *Leadership ; }, }
@article {pmid20041346, year = {2010}, author = {Fan, JW and Shao, QQ and Liu, JY and Wang, JB and Harris, W and Chen, ZQ and Zhong, HP and Xu, XL and Liu, RG}, title = {Assessment of effects of climate change and grazing activity on grassland yield in the Three Rivers Headwaters Region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {170}, number = {1-4}, pages = {571-584}, pmid = {20041346}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {China ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {Inter-annual dynamics of grassland yield of the Three Rivers Headwaters Region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China in 1988-2005 was analyzed using the GLO-PEM model, and the herbage supply function was evaluated. The results indicate that while grassland yield in the region showed marked inter-annual fluctuation there was a trend of increased yield over the 18 years of the study. This increase was especially marked for Alpine Desert and Alpine Steppe and in the west of the region. The inter-annual coefficient of variation of productivity increased from the east to the west of the region and from Marsh, Alpine Meadow, Alpine Steppe, Temperate Steppe to Alpine Desert grasslands. Climate change, particularly increased temperatures in the region during the study period, is suggested to be the main cause of increased grassland yield. However, reduced grazing pressure and changes to the seasonal pattern of grazing could also have influenced the grassland yield trend. These findings indicate the importance of understanding the function of the grassland ecosystems in the region and the effect of climate change on them especially in regard to their use to supply forage for animal production. Reduction of grazing pressure, especially during winter, is indicated to be critical for the restoration and sustainable use of grassland ecosystems in the region.}, }
@article {pmid20040975, year = {2008}, author = {Pandve, HT}, title = {Emerging public health issues due to climate change.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {142}, pmid = {20040975}, issn = {1998-3670}, }
@article {pmid20039819, year = {2009}, author = {Moore, GW and Semple, JL}, title = {The impact of global warming on Mount Everest.}, journal = {High altitude medicine &amp; biology}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {383-385}, doi = {10.1089/ham.2009.1039}, pmid = {20039819}, issn = {1557-8682}, mesh = {*Atmospheric Pressure ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Mountaineering ; Oxygen Consumption ; }, abstract = {Global warming impacts a wide range of human activities and ecosystems. One unanticipated consequence of the warming is an increase in barometric pressure throughout the troposphere. Mount Everest's extreme height and resulting low barometric pressure places humans near its summit in an extreme state of hypoxia. Here we quantify the degree with which this warming is increasing the barometric pressure near Everest's summit and argue that it is of such a magnitude as to make the mountain, over time, easier to climb.}, }
@article {pmid20038657, year = {2010}, author = {Aubret, F and Shine, R}, title = {Thermal plasticity in young snakes: how will climate change affect the thermoregulatory tactics of ectotherms?.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {213}, number = {2}, pages = {242-248}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.035931}, pmid = {20038657}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal/physiology ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Hot Temperature ; Motor Activity/physiology ; Snakes/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change will result in some areas becoming warmer and others cooler, and will amplify the magnitude of year-to-year thermal variation in many areas. How will such changes affect animals that rely on ambient thermal heterogeneity to behaviourally regulate their body temperatures? To explore this question, we raised 43 captive-born tiger snakes Notechis scutatus in enclosures that provided cold (19-22 degrees C), intermediate (19-26 degrees C) or hot (19-37 degrees C) thermal gradients. The snakes adjusted their diel timing of thermoregulatory behaviour so effectively that when tested 14 months later, body temperatures (mean and maximum), locomotor speeds and anti-predator behaviours did not differ among treatment groups. Thus, the young snakes modified their behaviour to compensate for restricted thermal opportunities. Then, we suddenly shifted ambient conditions to mimic year-to-year variation. In contrast to the earlier plasticity, snakes failed to adjust to this change, e.g. snakes raised at cooler treatments but then shifted to hot conditions showed a higher mean body temperature for at least two months after the onset of the new thermal regime. Hence, thermal conditions experienced early in life influenced subsequent thermoregulatory tactics; the mean selected temperature of a snake depended more upon its prior raising conditions than upon its current thermoregulatory opportunities. Behavioural plasticity thus allows snakes to adjust to suboptimal thermal conditions but this plasticity is limited. The major thermoregulatory challenge from global climate change may not be the shift in mean values (to which our young snakes adjusted) but the increased year-to-year variation (with which our snakes proved less able to deal).}, }
@article {pmid20034718, year = {2010}, author = {Schaub, M and Matyssek, R and Wieser, G}, title = {Preface to the special section of the IUFRO conference on air pollution and climate change effects on forest ecosystems.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {158}, number = {6}, pages = {1985}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2009.11.025}, pmid = {20034718}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Climate Change ; *Congresses as Topic ; *Ecosystem ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid20033251, year = {2010}, author = {Berry, HL and Bowen, K and Kjellstrom, T}, title = {Climate change and mental health: a causal pathways framework.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {123-132}, pmid = {20033251}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Mental Disorders/etiology ; *Mental Health ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Climate change will bring more frequent, long lasting and severe adverse weather events and these changes will affect mental health. We propose an explanatory framework to enhance consideration of how these effects may operate and to encourage debate about this important aspect of the health impacts of climate change.<br><br>METHODS: Literature review.<br><br>RESULTS: Climate change may affect mental health directly by exposing people to trauma. It may also affect mental health indirectly, by affecting (1) physical health (for example, extreme heat exposure causes heat exhaustion in vulnerable people, and associated mental health consequences) and (2) community wellbeing. Within community, wellbeing is a sub-process in which climate change erodes physical environments which, in turn, damage social environments. Vulnerable people and places, especially in low-income countries, will be particularly badly affected.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Different aspects of climate change may affect mental health through direct and indirect pathways, leading to serious mental health problems, possibly including increased suicide mortality. We propose that it is helpful to integrate these pathways in an explanatory framework, which may assist in developing public health policy, practice and research.}, }
@article {pmid20033047, year = {2009}, author = {Loarie, SR and Duffy, PB and Hamilton, H and Asner, GP and Field, CB and Ackerly, DD}, title = {The velocity of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {462}, number = {7276}, pages = {1052-1055}, pmid = {20033047}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Biological ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The ranges of plants and animals are moving in response to recent changes in climate. As temperatures rise, ecosystems with 'nowhere to go', such as mountains, are considered to be more threatened. However, species survival may depend as much on keeping pace with moving climates as the climate's ultimate persistence. Here we present a new index of the velocity of temperature change (km yr(-1)), derived from spatial gradients (degrees C km(-1)) and multimodel ensemble forecasts of rates of temperature increase (degrees C yr(-1)) in the twenty-first century. This index represents the instantaneous local velocity along Earth's surface needed to maintain constant temperatures, and has a global mean of 0.42 km yr(-1) (A1B emission scenario). Owing to topographic effects, the velocity of temperature change is lowest in mountainous biomes such as tropical and subtropical coniferous forests (0.08 km yr(-1)), temperate coniferous forest, and montane grasslands. Velocities are highest in flooded grasslands (1.26 km yr(-1)), mangroves and deserts. High velocities suggest that the climates of only 8% of global protected areas have residence times exceeding 100 years. Small protected areas exacerbate the problem in Mediterranean-type and temperate coniferous forest biomes. Large protected areas may mitigate the problem in desert biomes. These results indicate management strategies for minimizing biodiversity loss from climate change. Montane landscapes may effectively shelter many species into the next century. Elsewhere, reduced emissions, a much expanded network of protected areas, or efforts to increase species movement may be necessary.}, }
@article {pmid20032032, year = {2010}, author = {Wirawan, IM}, title = {Public health responses to climate change health impacts in Indonesia.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {25-31}, doi = {10.1177/1010539509350912}, pmid = {20032032}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Communicable Disease Control ; Dengue/transmission ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Indonesia ; Malaria/transmission ; Malnutrition/prevention &amp; control ; *Public Health Practice ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Although climate change is a global concern, there are particular considerations for Indonesia as an archipelagic nation. These include the vulnerability of people living in small islands and coastal areas to rising sea levels; the expansion of the important mosquito-borne diseases, particularly malaria and dengue, into areas that lack of immunity; and the increase in water-borne diseases and malnutrition. This article proposes a set of public health responses to climate change health impacts in Indonesia. Some important principles and practices in public health are highlighted, to develop effective public health approaches to climate change in Indonesia.}, }
@article {pmid20030368, year = {2010}, author = {Roberts, KG and Gloy, BA and Joseph, S and Scott, NR and Lehmann, J}, title = {Life cycle assessment of biochar systems: estimating the energetic, economic, and climate change potential.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {827-833}, doi = {10.1021/es902266r}, pmid = {20030368}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/chemistry ; Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Bioelectric Energy Sources/*economics ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Charcoal/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Refuse Disposal ; }, abstract = {Biomass pyrolysis with biochar returned to soil is a possible strategy for climate change mitigation and reducing fossil fuel consumption. Pyrolysis with biochar applied to soils results in four coproducts: long-term carbon (C) sequestration from stable C in the biochar, renewable energy generation, biochar as a soil amendment, and biomass waste management. Life cycle assessment was used to estimate the energy and climate change impacts and the economics of biochar systems. The feedstocks analyzed represent agricultural residues (corn stover), yard waste, and switchgrass energy crops. The net energy of the system is greatest with switchgrass (4899 MJ t(-1) dry feedstock). The net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for both stover and yard waste are negative, at -864 and -885 kg CO(2) equivalent (CO(2)e) emissions reductions per tonne dry feedstock, respectively. Of these total reductions, 62-66% are realized from C sequestration in the biochar. The switchgrass biochar-pyrolysis system can be a net GHG emitter (+36 kg CO(2)e t(-1) dry feedstock), depending on the accounting method for indirect land-use change impacts. The economic viability of the pyrolysis-biochar system is largely dependent on the costs of feedstock production, pyrolysis, and the value of C offsets. Biomass sources that have a need for waste management such as yard waste have the highest potential for economic profitability (+$69 t(-1) dry feedstock when CO(2)e emission reductions are valued at $80 t(-1) CO(2)e). The transportation distance for feedstock creates a significant hurdle to the economic profitability of biochar-pyrolysis systems. Biochar may at present only deliver climate change mitigation benefits and be financially viable as a distributed system using waste biomass.}, }
@article {pmid20030367, year = {2010}, author = {Fraser, B}, title = {High-tech charcoal fights climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {548-549}, doi = {10.1021/es903696x}, pmid = {20030367}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Bioelectric Energy Sources ; Charcoal/*chemistry ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, }
@article {pmid20030143, year = {2009}, author = {Liu, ZJ and Yang, XG and Wang, WF and Li, KN and Zhang, XY}, title = {[Characteristics of agricultural climate resources in three provinces of northeast China under global climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {20}, number = {9}, pages = {2199-2206}, pmid = {20030143}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Ecology/methods/trends ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Rain ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1961-2007 weather data from 72 meteorological stations in three provinces of Northeast China, the change characteristics of agricultural climatic factors including yearly and temperature-defined growing season's mean air temperature, > or =10 degrees C accumulated temperature, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and sunshine hours were analyzed. In 1961-2007, the yearly mean air temperature in the three provinces had an increasing trend, with a rate of 0.38 degrees C x 10 a(-1). The > or =10 degrees C accumulated temperature in temperature-defined growing season also had an increasing trend, and the border of > or =10 degrees C accumulated temperature belt moved northward and eastward. The area of > or =3200 degrees C x d accumulated temperature increased by 2.2 x 10(4) km2. The belt of 2800-3200 degrees C x d moved northward about 0.85 degrees and eastward about 0.67 degrees, while that of 2400-2800 degrees C x d moved northward about 1.1 degrees. The sunshine hours decreased significantly, especially in the east part of Songnen Plain, central and west plains of Jilin Province, and west part of Liaohe River Plain. The area with sunshine hours > 2800 h decreased from 13.6 x 10(4) km2 to 4. 1 x 10(4) km2, and the zone with sunshine hours 2600-2800 h moved westward about 1.5 degrees. The average sunshine hour in temperature-defined growing season was 1174 h. Comparing with that in 1961-1980, the region with more sunshine hours in temperature-defined growing season in 1981-2007 narrowed significantly, and the zone with sunshine hours 1200-1400 h moved westward about 0.9 degrees. In 1961-2007, both the yearly and the temperature-defined growing season's precipitation decreased, and the yearly reference evapotranspiration increased in Heilongjiang Province and in the eastern mountain areas of Jilin Province but decreased in the central and west plains of Jilin Province and in Liaoning Province. Comparing with that in 1961-1980, the zone of reference evapotranspiration with the value of > or =900 mm in 1981-2007 moved westward about 1 degree, and the reference evapotranspiration in temperature-defined growing season increased in most regions of Heilongjiang and Jilin Province but decreased in a rate of 0-14 mm x 10 a(-1) in most regions of Liaoning Province.}, }
@article {pmid20030133, year = {2009}, author = {Zhang, ZB and Shi, ZA and Zhu, DF and Song, LY and Wang, Y and Zhang, SY and Zhang, JN and Li, XL}, title = {[Effects of climate change on photosynthesis of Diospyros kaki under different soil moisture conditions].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {20}, number = {9}, pages = {2129-2134}, pmid = {20030133}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Chlorophyll/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Diospyros/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Photosynthesis/*physiology ; Soil/*analysis ; Water/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Taking two-year-old Diospyros kaki as test material, this paper studied the effects of high CO2 concentration (700 micromol x mol(-1)), high temperature (5 degrees C higher than the mean daily temperature); and their combination on the net photosynthesis rate (Pn), evapotranspiration (Tr), stomatal conductance (Gs), water use efficiency (WUE), chlorophyll content, Fv/Fm, and Fv/Fo under different soil moisture conditions, with the ambient air temperature and CO2 concentration (380 micromol x mol(-1)) as the control. Under all test soil moisture conditions, the combination of high CO2 concentration and high temperature decreased the Tr and Gs, but increased the WUE. This combination increased the Pn when the soil moisture content was 75%-85% and 55%-65% of field capacity, but decreased the Pn when the soil moisture content was 35%-45%. High CO2 concentration increased the Pn and WUE but decreased the Gs and Tr under all test soil moisture conditions. The effects of high temperature and its combination with high CO2 concentration on the WUE depended on soil moisture condition, with the WUE increased with increasing soil moisture content. Comparing with the control, high CO2 concentration also increased the leaf Chla, Chlb, Chl (a + b), and Car concentrations and the Fv/Fm and Fv/Fo values, relieved the water stress, and increased the stress-resistance of D. kaki.}, }
@article {pmid20028274, year = {2009}, author = {McMichael, AJ and Butler, CD}, title = {Climate change and human health: recognising the really inconvenient truth.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {191}, number = {11-12}, pages = {595-596}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.2009.tb03342.x}, pmid = {20028274}, issn = {0025-729X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid20028038, year = {2009}, author = {Parks, N}, title = {UN update: climate change hitting sooner and stronger.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {22}, pages = {8475-8476}, doi = {10.1021/es903062g}, pmid = {20028038}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Research ; Risk Factors ; Time Factors ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid20027264, year = {2009}, author = {Kjellstrom, T}, title = {Climate change, direct heat exposure, health and well-being in low and middle-income countries.}, journal = {Global health action}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {}, pmid = {20027264}, issn = {1654-9880}, }
@article {pmid20025788, year = {2009}, author = {Huynen, MM and van Vliet, AJ}, title = {[Climate change and health in the Netherlands].}, journal = {Nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde}, volume = {153}, number = {}, pages = {A1515}, pmid = {20025788}, issn = {1876-8784}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Animals ; Arthropod Vectors/microbiology/parasitology ; *Climate Change ; *Environmental Health ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; Netherlands ; *Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; Stress, Physiological ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change possibly affects public health in the Netherlands, including changes in (a) temperature-related effects, heat stress and air pollution, (b) allergies, (c) vector borne infectious disease, and (d) food- and waterborne infectious disease. Due to many prevailing uncertainties, opinions differ regarding the exact size of the expected health risks and the speed at which these might occur, as well as regarding to what degree society would need to or could adapt to these potential health effects. Thus, the gaps in our knowledge are substantial. Scientists and experts are clearly concerned about the limited amount of attention being paid to health effects of climate change in the Netherlands. In response, a proposal for a research programme 'Klimaatverandering en Gezondheid' ('Climate change and health') has been developed over the past year.}, }
@article {pmid20025787, year = {2009}, author = {Martens, P}, title = {[Climate change and health].}, journal = {Nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde}, volume = {153}, number = {}, pages = {A1420}, pmid = {20025787}, issn = {1876-8784}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Dengue/epidemiology ; *Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control ; Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Lyme Disease/epidemiology ; Malaria/epidemiology ; *Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; Schistosomiasis/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Despite the targets for greenhouse gas emissions agreed in Kyoto under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - again to be discussed in Copenhagen in December - climate change will still have serious effects on public health. The health effects of climate change will be noticeable also in the short run. Diseases which are transmitted by arthropod vectors will spread to more areas of the world than where they are present now. In addition, we will have to deal with allergies, deaths due to heat waves, diarrhoea and malnutrition. For this reason, every action is needed now in order to minimise the adverse effects on health.}, }
@article {pmid20025786, year = {2009}, author = {de Weger, LA and Hiemstra, PS}, title = {[The effect of climate change on pollen allergy in the Netherlands].}, journal = {Nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde}, volume = {153}, number = {}, pages = {A1410}, pmid = {20025786}, issn = {1876-8784}, mesh = {Allergens/*immunology ; Ambrosia/immunology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Netherlands/epidemiology ; Poaceae/immunology ; Pollen/*immunology ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*epidemiology/immunology/pathology ; Seasons ; Severity of Illness Index ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change can exert a range of effects on pollen, which might have consequences for pollen-allergic patients. New allergenic pollen types might appear in the Netherlands, like common ragweed and olive, which result in allergy patients developing allergies that scarcely occur in the Netherlands at present. Trees, such as birches and planes, might produce larger quantities of pollen, which could result in more severe symptoms. The pollen season might become longer thereby extending the period in which patients suffer from allergy symptoms. This extension of the pollen season could be due to a prolonged flowering period of certain species, e.g. grasses, or the appearance of new species that flower in late summer, e.g. common ragweed. Climate change could cause an increase in heavy thunderstorms on summer days in the grass pollen season, which are known to increase the chance of asthma exacerbations.}, }
@article {pmid20025229, year = {2010}, author = {Kellogg, J and Wang, J and Flint, C and Ribnicky, D and Kuhn, P and De Mejia, EG and Raskin, I and Lila, MA}, title = {Alaskan wild berry resources and human health under the cloud of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of agricultural and food chemistry}, volume = {58}, number = {7}, pages = {3884-3900}, pmid = {20025229}, issn = {1520-5118}, support = {1-P50 AT002776-01/AT/NCCIH NIH HHS/United States ; P50 AT000477-06/AT/NCCIH NIH HHS/United States ; P50 AT002776-019002/AT/NCCIH NIH HHS/United States ; P50 AT002776-01/AT/NCCIH NIH HHS/United States ; P50 AT002776/AT/NCCIH NIH HHS/United States ; P50 AT000477/AT/NCCIH NIH HHS/United States ; 2 P50 AT000477-06/AT/NCCIH NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Alaska ; Animals ; Anthocyanins/analysis/pharmacology ; Blood Glucose/drug effects ; Cell Line ; *Climate Change ; Fruit/chemistry ; *Health ; Humans ; Male ; Mice ; Mice, Inbred C57BL ; Obesity/*drug therapy ; Plant Extracts/analysis/metabolism/*pharmacology ; Random Allocation ; Rosaceae/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Wild berries are integral dietary components for Alaska Native people and a rich source of polyphenolic metabolites that can ameliorate metabolic disorders such as obesity and diabetes. In this study, five species of wild Alaskan berries (Vaccinium ovalifolium , Vaccinium uliginosum , Rubus chamaemorus , Rubus spectabilis , and Empetrum nigrum) were screened for bioactivity through a community-participatory research method involving three geographically distinct tribal communities. Compositional analysis by HPLC and LC-MS(2) revealed substantial site-specific variation in anthocyanins (0.01-4.39 mg/g of FW) and proanthocyanidins (0.74-6.25 mg/g of FW) and identified A-type proanthocyanidin polymers. R. spectabilis increased expression levels of preadipocyte factor 1 (182%), and proanthocyanidin-enriched fractions from other species reduced lipid accumulation in 3T3-L1 adipocytes. Selected extracts reduced serum glucose levels in C57BL/6J mice by up to 45%. Local observations provided robust insights into effects of climatic fluctuations on berry abundance and quality, and preliminary site-specific compositional and bioactivity differences were noted, suggesting the need to monitor this Alaska Native resource as climate shifts affect the region.}, }
@article {pmid20023089, year = {2010}, author = {Castro, HF and Classen, AT and Austin, EE and Norby, RJ and Schadt, CW}, title = {Soil microbial community responses to multiple experimental climate change drivers.}, journal = {Applied and environmental microbiology}, volume = {76}, number = {4}, pages = {999-1007}, pmid = {20023089}, issn = {1098-5336}, mesh = {Bacteria/classification/genetics/isolation &amp; purification ; Base Sequence ; *Climate Change ; DNA Primers/genetics ; DNA, Bacterial/genetics/isolation &amp; purification ; DNA, Fungal/genetics/isolation &amp; purification ; Ecosystem ; Fungi/classification/genetics/isolation &amp; purification ; Models, Biological ; Phylogeny ; RNA, Bacterial/genetics ; RNA, Fungal/genetics ; RNA, Ribosomal, 16S/genetics ; RNA, Ribosomal, 28S/genetics ; *Soil Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Researchers agree that climate change factors such as rising atmospheric [CO2] and warming will likely interact to modify ecosystem properties and processes. However, the response of the microbial communities that regulate ecosystem processes is less predictable. We measured the direct and interactive effects of climatic change on soil fungal and bacterial communities (abundance and composition) in a multifactor climate change experiment that exposed a constructed old-field ecosystem to different atmospheric CO2 concentration (ambient, +300 ppm), temperature (ambient, +3 degrees C), and precipitation (wet and dry) might interact to alter soil bacterial and fungal abundance and community structure in an old-field ecosystem. We found that (i) fungal abundance increased in warmed treatments; (ii) bacterial abundance increased in warmed plots with elevated atmospheric [CO2] but decreased in warmed plots under ambient atmospheric [CO2]; (iii) the phylogenetic distribution of bacterial and fungal clones and their relative abundance varied among treatments, as indicated by changes in 16S rRNA and 28S rRNA genes; (iv) changes in precipitation altered the relative abundance of Proteobacteria and Acidobacteria, where Acidobacteria decreased with a concomitant increase in the Proteobacteria in wet relative to dry treatments; and (v) changes in precipitation altered fungal community composition, primarily through lineage specific changes within a recently discovered group known as soil clone group I. Taken together, our results indicate that climate change drivers and their interactions may cause changes in bacterial and fungal overall abundance; however, changes in precipitation tended to have a much greater effect on the community composition. These results illustrate the potential for complex community changes in terrestrial ecosystems under climate change scenarios that alter multiple factors simultaneously.}, }
@article {pmid20020745, year = {2010}, author = {Wu, W and Driscoll, CT}, title = {Impact of climate change on three-dimensional dynamic critical load functions.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {720-726}, doi = {10.1021/es900890t}, pmid = {20020745}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of base cations can alter the ionic composition of soil and surface waters, and therefore affect the structure and function of sensitive ecosystems. However, these drivers are not generally explicitly considered in the calculation of critical loads or dynamic critical loads to evaluate the recovery of ecosystems from elevated acidic deposition. Here we explore the importance of accounting for these changes in calculating dynamic critical loads for ecosystems. We developed three-dimensional dynamic critical load surfaces as a function of nitrate, sulfur, and base cation deposition under current and future climate change scenarios for the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. This case study indicates that dynamic critical loads for nitrate and sulfur will be lower under conditions of potential climate change or decreases in base cation deposition. This analysis suggests that greater emission controls may be needed to protect sensitive forest ecosystems from acidic deposition under a future climate change or conditions of lower atmospheric deposition of base cations, particularly for watersheds experiencing elevated leaching losses of nitrate. This study should facilitate more informed policy decisions on emission control strategies and assessments of ecosystem recovery.}, }
@article {pmid20018784, year = {2010}, author = {Both, C and Van Turnhout, CA and Bijlsma, RG and Siepel, H and Van Strien, AJ and Foppen, RP}, title = {Avian population consequences of climate change are most severe for long-distance migrants in seasonal habitats.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {277}, number = {1685}, pages = {1259-1266}, pmid = {20018784}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Seasons ; Trees ; }, abstract = {One consequence of climate change is an increasing mismatch between timing of food requirements and food availability. Such a mismatch is primarily expected in avian long-distance migrants because of their complex annual cycle, and in habitats with a seasonal food peak. Here we show that insectivorous long-distance migrant species in The Netherlands declined strongly (1984-2004) in forests, a habitat characterized by a short spring food peak, but that they did not decline in less seasonal marshes. Also, within generalist long-distance migrant species, populations declined more strongly in forests than in marshes. Forest-inhabiting migrant species arriving latest in spring declined most sharply, probably because their mismatch with the peak in food supply is greatest. Residents and short-distance migrants had non-declining populations in both habitats, suggesting that habitat quality did not deteriorate. Habitat-related differences in trends were most probably caused by climate change because at a European scale, long-distance migrants in forests declined more severely in western Europe, where springs have become considerably warmer, when compared with northern Europe, where temperatures during spring arrival and breeding have increased less. Our results suggest that trophic mismatches may have become a major cause for population declines in long-distance migrants in highly seasonal habitats.}, }
@article {pmid20016985, year = {2010}, author = {Yousefpour, R and Hanewinkel, M and Le Moguédec, G}, title = {Evaluating the suitability of management strategies of pure Norway spruce forests in the Black Forest area of southwest Germany for adaptation to or mitigation of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {45}, number = {2}, pages = {387-402}, pmid = {20016985}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; *Climate Change ; *Fagus ; *Forestry ; Germany ; *Picea ; }, abstract = {The study deals with the problem of evaluating management strategies for pure stands of Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst) to balance adaptation to and mitigation of climate change, taking into account multiple objectives of a forest owner. A simulation and optimization approach was used to evaluate the management of a 1000 ha model Age-Class forest, representing the age-class distribution of an area of 66,000 ha of pure Norway spruce forests in the Black Forest region of Southwest Germany. Eight silvicultural scenarios comprising five forest conversion schemes which were interpreted as "adaptation" strategies which aims at increasing the proportion of Beech, that is expected to better cope with climate change than the existing Norway spruce, and three conventional strategies including a "Do-nothing" alternative classified as "mitigation", trying to keep rather higher levels of growing stock of spruce, were simulated using the empirical growth simulator BWINPro-S. A linear programming approach was adapted to simultaneously maximize the net present values of carbon sequestration and timber production subject to the two constraints of wood even flow and partial protection of the oldest (nature protection). The optimized plan, with the global utility of 11,687 <euro>/ha in forty years, allocated a combination of silvicultural scenarios to the entire forest area. Overall, strategies classified as "mitigation" were favored, while strategies falling into the "adaptation"-category were limited to the youngest age-classes in the optimal solution. Carbon sequestration of the "Do-nothing" alternative was between 1.72 and 1.85 million tons higher than the other alternatives for the entire forest area while the differences between the adaptation and mitigation approaches were approximately 133,000 tons. Sensitivity analysis showed that a carbon price of 21 <euro>/t is the threshold at which carbon sequestration is promoted, while an interest rate of above 2% would decrease the amount of carbon.}, }
@article {pmid20016827, year = {2009}, author = {Girvetz, EH and Zganjar, C and Raber, GT and Maurer, EP and Kareiva, P and Lawler, JJ}, title = {Applied climate-change analysis: the climate wizard tool.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {4}, number = {12}, pages = {e8320}, pmid = {20016827}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Africa, Northern ; Asia ; *Climate Change ; Internet/*instrumentation ; North America ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; User-Computer Interface ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although the message of "global climate change" is catalyzing international action, it is local and regional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists, managers, and policy makers. A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting climate-change information. To address this problem, we developed a powerful, yet easy to use, web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateWizard.org) that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovative graphical depictions for conveying how climate has and is projected to change within specific geographic areas throughout the world.<br><br>To demonstrate the Climate Wizard, we explored historic trends and future departures (anomalies) in temperature and precipitation globally, and within specific latitudinal zones and countries. We found the greatest temperature increases during 1951-2002 occurred in northern hemisphere countries (especially during January-April), but the latitude of greatest temperature change varied throughout the year, sinusoidally ranging from approximately 50 degrees N during February-March to 10 degrees N during August-September. Precipitation decreases occurred most commonly in countries between 0-20 degrees N, and increases mostly occurred outside of this latitudinal region. Similarly, a quantile ensemble analysis based on projections from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 2070-2099 identified the median projected change within countries, which showed both latitudinal and regional patterns in projected temperature and precipitation change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results of these analyses are consistent with those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but at the same time, they provide examples of how Climate Wizard can be used to explore regionally- and temporally-specific analyses of climate change. Moreover, Climate Wizard is not a static product, but rather a data analysis framework designed to be used for climate change impact and adaption planning, which can be expanded to include other information, such as downscaled future projections of hydrology, soil moisture, wildfire, vegetation, marine conditions, disease, and agricultural productivity.}, }
@article {pmid20015209, year = {2010}, author = {Gale, P and Estrada-Peña, A and Martinez, M and Ulrich, RG and Wilson, A and Capelli, G and Phipps, P and de la Torre, A and Muñoz, MJ and Dottori, M and Mioulet, V and Fooks, AR}, title = {The feasibility of developing a risk assessment for the impact of climate change on the emergence of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever in livestock in Europe: a review.}, journal = {Journal of applied microbiology}, volume = {108}, number = {6}, pages = {1859-1870}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2672.2009.04638.x}, pmid = {20015209}, issn = {1365-2672}, support = {BBS/E/I/00001409/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Reservoirs/virology ; Europe/epidemiology ; Geographic Information Systems ; Hemorrhagic Fever Virus, Crimean-Congo ; Hemorrhagic Fever, Crimean/epidemiology/*transmission/*veterinary/virology ; Humans ; Livestock/virology ; *Risk Assessment ; Ticks/virology ; }, abstract = {Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is one of the most widespread of all medically important arboviruses with ticks of the Hyalomma spp. serving as the main vectors. Infection of livestock by CCHFV serves as a route of exposure to humans, as a reservoir of disease and as a route of importation. This study discusses the pathways and data requirements for a qualitative risk assessment for the emergence of CCHFV in livestock in Europe. A risk map approach is proposed based on layers that include the potential routes of release (e.g. by migrating birds carrying infected ticks) together with the main components for exposure, namely the distributions of the tick vectors, the small vertebrate host reservoirs and the livestock. A layer on landscape fragmentation serves as a surrogate for proximity of livestock to the tick cycle. Although the impact of climate change on the emergence of CCHF is not clear, comparing the distribution of risk factors in each layer currently with those predicted in the 2080s with climate change can be used to speculate how potential high-risk areas may shift. According to the risk pathway, transstadial and/or transovarial transmission in the tick vector are crucial for CCHFV spread. Vector competence and tick vector switching, however, remain critical factors for CCHFV colonization of new regions in Europe. The species of migratory bird is also an important consideration in the release assessment with greater abundance and biodiversity of ground-dwelling birds in southern Europe than in northern Europe.}, }
@article {pmid20012753, year = {2010}, author = {Cueto, RO and Martínez, AT and Ostos, EJ}, title = {Heat waves and heat days in an arid city in the northwest of México: current trends and in climate change scenarios.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {54}, number = {4}, pages = {335-345}, pmid = {20012753}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {*Climate Change/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Heat Stroke/etiology ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Mexico ; Models, Theoretical ; Public Health ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The aim of this work is to study heat waves (HWs) in Mexicali, Mexico, because numerous deaths have been reported in this city, caused by heatstroke. This research acquires relevancy because several studies have projected that the health impacts of HWs could increase under various climate change scenarios, especially in countries with low adaptive capacity, as is our case. This paper has three objectives: first, to analyze the observed change in the summer (1 June to 15 September) daily maximum temperature during the period from 1951 to 2006; secondly, to characterize the annual and monthly evolution of frequency, duration and intensity of HWs; and finally, to generate scenarios of heat days (HDs) by means of a statistical downscaling model, in combination with a global climate model (HadCM3), for the 2020 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s. The results show summer maximum temperatures featured warming and cooling periods from 1951 until the mid-1980s and, later, a rising tendency, which prevailed until 2006. The duration and intensity of HWs have increased for all summer months, which is an indicator of the severity of the problem; in fact, there are 2.3 times more HWs now than in the decade of the 1970s. The most appropriate distribution for modeling the occurrence of HDs was the Weibull, with the maximum temperature as co-variable. For the 2020 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s, HDs under a medium-high emissions scenario (A2) could increase relative to 1961-1990, by 2.1, 3.6, and 5.1 times, respectively, whereas under a medium-low emissions scenario (B2), HDs could increase by 2.4, 3.4, and 4.0, for the same projections of time.}, }
@article {pmid20008965, year = {2010}, author = {Feygina, I and Jost, JT and Goldsmith, RE}, title = {System justification, the denial of global warming, and the possibility of "system-sanctioned change".}, journal = {Personality &amp; social psychology bulletin}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, pages = {326-338}, doi = {10.1177/0146167209351435}, pmid = {20008965}, issn = {1552-7433}, mesh = {Adolescent ; *Attitude ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Data Collection ; *Denial, Psychological ; Female ; Global Warming/*prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Male ; Motivation ; New York City ; Psychological Theory ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Despite extensive evidence of climate change and environmental destruction, polls continue to reveal widespread denial and resistance to helping the environment. It is posited here that these responses are linked to the motivational tendency to defend and justify the societal status quo in the face of the threat posed by environmental problems. The present research finds that system justification tendencies are associated with greater denial of environmental realities and less commitment to pro-environmental action. Moreover, the effects of political conservatism, national identification, and gender on denial of environmental problems are explained by variability in system justification tendencies. However, this research finds that it is possible to eliminate the negative effect of system justification on environmentalism by encouraging people to regard pro-environmental change as patriotic and consistent with protecting the status quo (i.e., as a case of "system-sanctioned change"). Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid20008050, year = {2010}, author = {Kauserud, H and Heegaard, E and Semenov, MA and Boddy, L and Halvorsen, R and Stige, LC and Sparks, TH and Gange, AC and Stenseth, NC}, title = {Climate change and spring-fruiting fungi.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {277}, number = {1685}, pages = {1169-1177}, pmid = {20008050}, issn = {1471-2954}, support = {BBS/E/C/00004938/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Fungi/*physiology ; Norway ; *Seasons ; Time Factors ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Most macrofungi produce ephemeral fruit bodies during autumn but some have adapted to spring fruiting. In this study, temporal changes in the time of spring fruiting in Norway and the UK during 1960-2007 have been investigated by statistical analyses of about 6000 herbarium and field records, covering 34 species. Nearly 30 per cent of the temporal variation in fruiting could be ascribed to spatial and species-specific effects. Correcting for these effects, linear trends towards progressively earlier fruiting were detected during the entire period in both Norway and the UK, with a change in average fruiting day of 18 days over the study period. Early fruiting was correlated with high winter temperatures in both countries, indicating that the observed phenological changes are likely due to earlier onset of spring. There were also significant correlations between climatic conditions in one year and timing of fruiting the following year, indicating that below-ground mycelia are influenced by climatic conditions over a longer time period before fruiting. Fruiting dates were, however, not strictly related to changes in vernal accumulated thermal time. Our results indicate that global warming has lead to progressively earlier fruiting of spring fungi in northwest Europe during the last half century.}, }
@article {pmid20008014, year = {2009}, author = {Moszynski, P}, title = {Reducing people's vulnerability is key to combating hunger caused by global warming.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {339}, number = {}, pages = {b5436}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.b5436}, pmid = {20008014}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Humans ; *Hunger ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, }
@article {pmid20007869, year = {2009}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Deforestation moves to the fore in Copenhagen.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5959}, pages = {1465}, doi = {10.1126/science.326.5959.1465}, pmid = {20007869}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Denmark ; *International Cooperation ; *Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid20007118, year = {2009}, author = {Kjellstrom, T and Kovats, RS and Lloyd, SJ and Holt, T and Tol, RS}, title = {The direct impact of climate change on regional labor productivity.}, journal = {Archives of environmental &amp; occupational health}, volume = {64}, number = {4}, pages = {217-227}, doi = {10.1080/19338240903352776}, pmid = {20007118}, issn = {2154-4700}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Efficiency ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; Workload ; }, abstract = {Global climate change will increase outdoor and indoor heat loads, and may impair health and productivity for millions of working people. This study applies physiological evidence about effects of heat, climate guidelines for safe work environments, climate modeling, and global distributions of working populations to estimate the impact of 2 climate scenarios on future labor productivity. In most regions, climate change will decrease labor productivity, under the simple assumption of no specific adaptation. By the 2080s, the greatest absolute losses of population-based labor work capacity (in the range 11% to 27%) are seen under the A2 scenario in Southeast Asia, Andean and Central America, and the Caribbean. Increased occupational heat exposure due to climate change may significantly impact on labor productivity and costs unless preventive measures are implemented. Workers may need to work longer hours, or more workers may be required, to achieve the same output and there will be economic costs of lost production and/or occupational health interventions against heat exposures.}, }
@article {pmid20001365, year = {2009}, author = {Berry, H}, title = {Pearl in the oyster: climate change as a mental health opportunity.}, journal = {Australasian psychiatry : bulletin of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {453-456}, doi = {10.1080/10398560903045328}, pmid = {20001365}, issn = {1440-1665}, abstract = {Objective: Our world faces potentially catastrophic climate change and we have limited capacity to adapt to rapid or extreme climatic changes. As a result, we can expect significant adverse impacts on health. This includes mental health, a major and growing global concern. It is essential to understand how to respond quickly, effectively and within a manageable budget. The aim of this paper is to propose that the adverse consequences of climate change might offer a subtle but important mental health promotion opportunity which meets these criteria. Conclusions: Climate change will affect mental health directly through increasing exposure to trauma, and indirectly through harming physical health and damaging the physical environment on which economic opportunity depends. Disadvantaged people and communities, especially in rural and remote Australia, will be hardest hit. Seminal work by Alexander Leighton demonstrated how profound disadvantage and associated elevated psychiatric morbidity could be addressed by building community capacity. His methods might be adapted, using the need to address adverse climate change as an opportunity to build social capital. Social capital is associated with a wide range of socioeconomic and health advantages, particularly decreased psychiatric morbidity.}, }
@article {pmid20001364, year = {2009}, author = {Hunter, E}, title = {'Radical hope' and rain: climate change and the mental health of Indigenous residents of northern Australia.}, journal = {Australasian psychiatry : bulletin of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists}, volume = {17}, number = {6}, pages = {445-452}, doi = {10.1080/10398560903062927}, pmid = {20001364}, issn = {1440-1665}, abstract = {Objective: This paper considers the short, intermediate and longer term effects of climate change in relation to the mental health of Indigenous residents of northern Australia, and what these effects mean in terms of supporting adaptation and resilience. Conclusions: Indigenous Australians have contended with change for millennia, with the drivers shifting from ecological to social pressures since European colonization. Climate change resulting from human activities introduces a new set of change forces which will in the short term be mediated by economic and social effects internationally.}, }
@article {pmid20000494, year = {2009}, author = {Stone, B}, title = {Land use as climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {24}, pages = {9052-9056}, doi = {10.1021/es902150g}, pmid = {20000494}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Pollutants ; Government Programs/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; Rural Population ; Urban Population ; }, }
@article {pmid19998606, year = {2009}, author = {Bågenholm, EN and Hedmark, T}, title = {[Climate change affects the health].}, journal = {Lakartidningen}, volume = {106}, number = {46}, pages = {3055}, pmid = {19998606}, issn = {0023-7205}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid19998567, year = {2009}, author = {Campbell, K}, title = {Climate change is almost totally nature-driven.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {122}, number = {1305}, pages = {101-103}, pmid = {19998567}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; New Zealand ; *Public Policy ; Research ; }, }
@article {pmid19969600, year = {2009}, author = {Moszynski, P}, title = {Climate change will increase number of displaced persons, UN agency says.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {339}, number = {}, pages = {b5363}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.b5363}, pmid = {19969600}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Emigration and Immigration/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ill-Housed Persons/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid19966885, year = {2009}, author = {Morgan, PJ}, title = {An engineer's view of the climate change crisis: the earth is now actually in a cooling phase.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {122}, number = {1305}, pages = {98-100}, pmid = {19966885}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Data Collection ; Data Interpretation, Statistical ; Humans ; New Zealand ; *Public Policy/economics ; Snow ; }, }
@article {pmid19966884, year = {2009}, author = {Preddey, G}, title = {A physicist's view of the climate change crisis: delighted with the attention given to this important issue.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {122}, number = {1305}, pages = {97}, pmid = {19966884}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Humans ; *Lobbying ; New Zealand ; *Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid19966156, year = {2010}, author = {Lammers, PJ and Kenealy, MD and Kliebenstein, JB and Harmon, JD and Helmers, MJ and Honeyman, MS}, title = {Nonsolar energy use and one-hundred-year global warming potential of Iowa swine feedstuffs and feeding strategies.}, journal = {Journal of animal science}, volume = {88}, number = {3}, pages = {1204-1212}, doi = {10.2527/jas.2009-2371}, pmid = {19966156}, issn = {1525-3163}, mesh = {Agriculture/standards ; *Animal Feed/standards ; *Animal Husbandry/standards ; Animals ; Avena ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Diet/veterinary ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Iowa ; Glycine max ; *Swine ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {Demand for nonsolar energy and concern about the implications of fossil fuel combustion have encouraged examination of energy use associated with agriculture. The United States is a global leader in pig production, and the United States swine industry is centered in Iowa. Feed is the largest individual input in pig production, but the energy consumption of the Iowa swine feed production chain has yet to be critically examined. This analysis examines nonsolar energy use and resulting 100-yr global warming potential (GWP) associated with the swine feed production chain, beginning with cultivation of crops and concluding with diet formulation. The nonsolar energy use and accompanying 100-yr GWP associated with production of 13 common swine feed ingredients are estimated. Two diet formulation strategies are considered for 4 crop sequence x ingredient choice combinations to generate 8 crop sequence x diet formulation scenarios. The first formulation strategy (simple) does not include synthetic AA or phytase. The second strategy (complex) reduces CP content of the diet by using L-lysine to meet standardized ileal digestibility lysine requirements of pigs and includes the exogenous enzyme phytase. Regardless of crop sequence x diet formulation scenario, including the enzyme phytase is energetically favorable and reduces the potential excretion of P by reducing or removing inorganic P from the complete diet. Including L-lysine reduces the CP content of the diet and requires less nonsolar energy to deliver adequate standardized ileal digestible lysine than simply feeding soybean meal. Replacing soybean meal with full-fat soybeans is not energetically beneficial under Iowa conditions. Swine diets including dried distillers grains with solubles and crude glycerol require approximately 50% more nonsolar energy inputs than corn-soybean meal diets or corn-soybean meal diets including oats. This study provides essential information on cultivation, processing, and manufacture of swine feed ingredients in Iowa that can be coupled with other models to estimate the nonsolar energy use and 100-yr GWP of pig production.}, }
@article {pmid19965723, year = {2009}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Science and society. Stolen e-mails turn up heat on climate change rhetoric.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5958}, pages = {1329}, doi = {10.1126/science.326.5958.1329}, pmid = {19965723}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19965491, year = {2009}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Amid worrisome signs of warming, 'climate fatigue' sets in.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5955}, pages = {926-928}, doi = {10.1126/science.326.5955.926}, pmid = {19965491}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19965490, year = {2009}, author = {Bagla, P}, title = {Climate change. Could glacier research help thaw Himalayan standoff?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5955}, pages = {925}, doi = {10.1126/science.326.5955.925-a}, pmid = {19965490}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19965488, year = {2009}, author = {Bagla, P}, title = {Climate change. No sign yet of Himalayan meltdown, Indian report finds.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5955}, pages = {924-925}, doi = {10.1126/science.326.5955.924}, pmid = {19965488}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19965364, year = {2009}, author = {Su, YY and Weng, YH and Chiu, YW}, title = {Climate change and food security in East Asia.}, journal = {Asia Pacific journal of clinical nutrition}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {674-678}, pmid = {19965364}, issn = {0964-7058}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics ; Asia, Southeastern ; *Climate Change/economics ; Asia, Eastern ; *Food Supply/economics ; Humans ; International Agencies/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Internationality ; *Public Policy/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/trends ; Regional Health Planning ; }, abstract = {Climate change causes serious food security risk for East Asian countries. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has recognized that the climate change will impact agriculture and all nations should prepare adaptations to the impacts on food security. This article reviews the context of adaptation rules and current policy development in East Asian region. The UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol have established specific rules for countries to develop national or regional adaptation policies and measurements. The current development of the ASEAN Strategic Plan on food security is inspiring, but the commitments to implementation by its members remain an issue of concern. We suggest that the UNFCCC enhances co-operation with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and other international organizations to further develop methodologies and technologies for all parties. Our findings suggest that agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors in terms of risks associated with climate change and distinct programmatic initiatives are necessary. It's imperative to promote co-operation among multilateral organizations, including the UNFCCC, FAO, World Health Organization, and others.}, }
@article {pmid19965353, year = {2009}, author = {Butler, CD}, title = {Food security in the Asia-Pacific: climate change, phosphorus, ozone and other environmental challenges.}, journal = {Asia Pacific journal of clinical nutrition}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {590-597}, pmid = {19965353}, issn = {0964-7058}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods/trends ; Animals ; Asia, Southeastern ; Australia ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Asia, Eastern ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Ozone/*adverse effects ; Phosphorus/metabolism/*supply &amp; distribution ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This is the second of two articles on challenges to future food security in the Asia Pacific region. It focuses on five mechanisms, which can be conceptualised as pathways by which pessimistic Malthusian scenarios, described in the first paper, may become manifest. The mechanisms are (1) climate change, (2) water scarcity, (3) tropospheric ozone pollution, (4) impending scarcity of phosphorus and conventional oil and (5) the possible interaction between future population displacement, conflict and poor governance. This article concludes that a sustainable improvement in food security requires a radical transformation in society's approach to the environment, population growth, agricultural research and the distribution of rights, opportunities and entitlements.}, }
@article {pmid19959253, year = {2010}, author = {Lejeusne, C and Chevaldonné, P and Pergent-Martini, C and Boudouresque, CF and Pérez, T}, title = {Climate change effects on a miniature ocean: the highly diverse, highly impacted Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {250-260}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2009.10.009}, pmid = {19959253}, issn = {0169-5347}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Mediterranean Sea ; Stress, Physiological ; }, abstract = {Little doubt is left that climate change is underway, strongly affecting the Earth's biodiversity. Some of the greatest challenges ahead concern the marine realm, but it is unclear to what extent changes will affect marine ecosystems. The Mediterranean Sea could give us some of the answers. Data recovered from its shores and depths have shown that sea temperatures are steadily increasing, extreme climatic events and related disease outbreaks are becoming more frequent, faunas are shifting, and invasive species are spreading. This miniature ocean can serve as a giant mesocosm of the world's oceans, with various sources of disturbances interacting synergistically and therefore providing an insight into a major unknown: how resilient are marine ecosystems, and how will their current functioning be modified?}, }
@article {pmid19957098, year = {2010}, author = {Forastiere, F}, title = {Climate change and health: a challenge for epidemiology and public health.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {83-84}, pmid = {19957098}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Epidemiology ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid19944436, year = {2009}, author = {Richardson, J and Kagawa, F and Nichols, A}, title = {Health, energy vulnerability and climate change: a retrospective thematic analysis of primary care trust policies and practices.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {123}, number = {12}, pages = {765-770}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2009.10.006}, pmid = {19944436}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; England ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Information Services ; *Internet ; Primary Health Care/*organization &amp; administration ; Retrospective Studies ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: To review publicly available documents produced by primary care trusts (PCTs) to assess the extent to which local activity and planning consider energy vulnerability, climate change and sustainability.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective thematic content analysis of publicly available materials located on PCT websites.<br><br>METHODS: Thematic content analysis of publicly available materials was undertaken by two researchers over a 6-month period in 2008. These materials were obtained from the websites of 30 PCTs in England. Materials included annual reports, plans, policies and strategy documents.<br><br>RESULTS: Of the 30 PCT websites studied, four were found to have an absence of content related to climate change, energy vulnerability and sustainability. Of the remaining 26 PCT websites, consistent themes were found: strategic initiatives, joint working with other agencies, promoting sustainable communities, and targeted actions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Evidence of good examples in sustainable development was predominantly limited to policy statements and strategic aims; evidence of action was limited. As champions of the public health agenda, PCT action on sustainability should be integral to all aspects of organizational governance.}, }
@article {pmid19943630, year = {2009}, author = {Pala, C}, title = {Abandoned Soviet farmlands could help offset global warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {23}, pages = {8707}, doi = {10.1021/es903218x}, pmid = {19943630}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Agriculture/economics ; Biofuels/economics ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Energy-Generating Resources/economics ; Ethanol/metabolism ; *Global Warming/economics ; Greenhouse Effect/economics ; Kazakhstan ; Poaceae/growth &amp; development ; Power Plants/economics ; USSR ; }, }
@article {pmid19942278, year = {2009}, author = {McMichael, AJ and Neira, M and Bertollini, R and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Hales, S}, title = {Climate change: a time of need and opportunity for the health sector.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {374}, number = {9707}, pages = {2123-2125}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)62031-6}, pmid = {19942278}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Health ; *Health Occupations ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid19942275, year = {2009}, author = {Gill, M and Stott, R}, title = {Health professionals must act to tackle climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {374}, number = {9706}, pages = {1953-1955}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61830-4}, pmid = {19942275}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Public Policy ; *Role ; }, }
@article {pmid19942274, year = {2009}, author = {Haines, A and Wilkinson, P and Tonne, C and Roberts, I}, title = {Aligning climate change and public health policies.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {374}, number = {9707}, pages = {2035-2038}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61667-6}, pmid = {19942274}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; *Health Policy ; International Cooperation ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid19941059, year = {2010}, author = {Xun, WW and Khan, AE and Michael, E and Vineis, P}, title = {Climate change epidemiology: methodological challenges.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {85-96}, pmid = {19941059}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {Bias ; *Climate Change ; *Epidemiologic Methods ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is now thought to be unequivocal, while its potential effects on global and public health cannot be ignored. However, the complexities of the causal webs, the dynamics of the interactions and unpredictability mean that climate change presents new challenges to epidemiology and magnifies existing methodological problems. This article reviews a number of such challenges, including topics such as exposure assessment, bias, confounding, causal complexities and uncertainties, with examples and recommendations provided where appropriate. Hence, epidemiology must continue to adapt by developing new approaches and the integration of other disciplines such as geography and climatology, with an emphasis on informing policy-making and disseminating knowledge beyond the field.}, }
@article {pmid19930396, year = {2010}, author = {Yang, LH and Rudolf, VH}, title = {Phenology, ontogeny and the effects of climate change on the timing of species interactions.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {1-10}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01402.x}, pmid = {19930396}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; *Phenotype ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is altering the phenology of many species and the timing of their interactions with other species, but the impacts of these phenological shifts on species interactions remain unclear. Classical approaches to the study of phenology have typically documented changes in the timing of single life-history events, while phenological shifts affect many interactions over entire life histories. In this study, we suggest an approach that integrates the phenology and ontogeny of species interactions with a fitness landscape to provide a common mechanistic framework for investigating phenological shifts. We suggest that this ontogeny-phenology landscape provides a flexible method to document changes in the relative phenologies of interacting species, examine the causes of these phenological shifts, and estimate their consequences for interacting species.}, }
@article {pmid19926135, year = {2010}, author = {Park, JH and Duan, L and Kim, B and Mitchell, MJ and Shibata, H}, title = {Potential effects of climate change and variability on watershed biogeochemical processes and water quality in Northeast Asia.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {212-225}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2009.10.008}, pmid = {19926135}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Kinetics ; Rain ; Seasons ; Soil/*analysis ; Water Pollution/*analysis ; Water Supply/*analysis ; }, abstract = {An overview is provided of the potential effects of climate change on the watershed biogeochemical processes and surface water quality in mountainous watersheds of Northeast (NE) Asia that provide drinking water supplies for large populations. We address major 'local' issues with the case studies conducted at three watersheds along a latitudinal gradient going from northern Japan through the central Korean Peninsula and ending in southern China. Winter snow regimes and ground snowpack dynamics play a crucial role in many ecological and biogeochemical processes in the mountainous watersheds across northern Japan. A warmer winter with less snowfall, as has been projected for northern Japan, will alter the accumulation and melting of snowpacks and affect hydro-biogeochemical processes linking soil processes to surface water quality. Soils on steep hillslopes and rich in base cations have been shown to have distinct patterns in buffering acidic inputs during snowmelt. Alteration of soil microbial processes in response to more frequent freeze-thaw cycles under thinner snowpacks may increase nutrient leaching to stream waters. The amount and intensity of summer monsoon rainfalls have been increasing in Korea over recent decades. More frequent extreme rainfall events have resulted in large watershed export of sediments and nutrients from agricultural lands on steep hillslopes converted from forests. Surface water siltation caused by terrestrial export of sediments from these steep hillslopes is emerging as a new challenge for water quality management due to detrimental effects on water quality. Climatic predictions in upcoming decades for southern China include lower precipitation with large year-to-year variations. The results from a four-year intensive study at a forested watershed in Chongquing province showed that acidity and the concentrations of sulfate and nitrate in soil and surface waters were generally lower in the years with lower precipitation, suggesting year-to-year variations in precipitation as a key factor in modulating the effects of acid deposition on soil and surface water quality of this region. Results from these case studies suggest that spatially variable patterns of snow or summer precipitation associated with regional climate change across NE Asia will have significant impacts on watershed biogeochemical processes and surface water quality, in interactions with local topography, land use change, or acid deposition.}, }
@article {pmid19924916, year = {2009}, author = {Brown, ME and Hintermann, B and Higgins, N}, title = {Markets, climate change, and food security in West Africa.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {21}, pages = {8016-8020}, doi = {10.1021/es901162d}, pmid = {19924916}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Africa, Western ; Agriculture/economics ; Climate Change/*economics ; Food/*economics ; *Marketing ; Panicum/economics/growth &amp; development ; United Nations ; Zea mays/economics/genetics ; }, abstract = {Food price fluctuations, which will be exacerbated by climate change, make West African food security even more tenuous.}, }
@article {pmid19924191, year = {2009}, author = {Turner, WR and Oppenheimer, M and Wilcove, DS}, title = {A force to fight global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {462}, number = {7271}, pages = {278-279}, pmid = {19924191}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid19923395, year = {2010}, author = {Bloem, MW and Semba, RD and Kraemer, K}, title = {Castel Gandolfo workshop: an introduction to the impact of climate change, the economic crisis, and the increase in the food prices on malnutrition.}, journal = {The Journal of nutrition}, volume = {140}, number = {1}, pages = {132S-5S}, doi = {10.3945/jn.109.112094}, pmid = {19923395}, issn = {1541-6100}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; Food/standards ; Food Supply/*economics ; Humans ; Italy ; *Malnutrition ; Nutritional Physiological Phenomena ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {The global food supply system is facing serious new challenges from economic and related crises and climate change, which directly affect the nutritional well-being of the poor by reducing their access to nutritious food. To cope, vulnerable populations prioritize consumption of calorie-rich but nutrient-poor food. Consequently, dietary quality and eventually quantity decline, increasing micronutrient malnutrition (or hidden hunger) and exacerbating preexisting vulnerabilities that lead to poorer health, lower incomes, and reduced physical and intellectual capabilities. This article introduces the series of papers in this supplement, which explore the relationships between crises and their cumulative impacts among vulnerable populations, particularly through hidden hunger.}, }
@article {pmid19923392, year = {2010}, author = {}, title = {The impact of climate change, the economic crisis, and the increase in food prices on malnutrition. Proceedings of a meeting. Castel Gondolfo, Italy. January 25, 2009.}, journal = {The Journal of nutrition}, volume = {140}, number = {1}, pages = {130S-228S}, doi = {10.3945/jn.109.118521}, pmid = {19923392}, issn = {1541-6100}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Economic Recession ; Food/*economics ; *Food Supply ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Malnutrition ; }, }
@article {pmid19923154, year = {2009}, author = {Carlowe, J}, title = {Success of climate change control depends on access to reproductive health care.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {339}, number = {}, pages = {b4834}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.b4834}, pmid = {19923154}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Services Accessibility ; Humans ; Reproductive Health Services/*supply &amp; distribution ; }, }
@article {pmid19923153, year = {2009}, author = {Hardee, K}, title = {Population, gender, and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {339}, number = {}, pages = {b4703}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.b4703}, pmid = {19923153}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; *Men's Health ; *Women's Health ; }, }
@article {pmid19922599, year = {2009}, author = {Newton, JP}, title = {Climate change--another hurdle for the older generation.}, journal = {Gerodontology}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {243-244}, doi = {10.1111/j.1741-2358.2009.00349.x}, pmid = {19922599}, issn = {1741-2358}, mesh = {Aged/physiology/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Floods ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Motor Vehicles/statistics &amp; numerical data ; United Kingdom ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, }
@article {pmid19921849, year = {2010}, author = {Parks, N}, title = {Confronting the role of non-CO2 pollutants in global warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {44}, number = {1}, pages = {14}, doi = {10.1021/es903289a}, pmid = {19921849}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Global Warming ; }, abstract = {Swift action on other greenhouse agents could solve the "fast half" of the climate problem, researchers say.}, }
@article {pmid19921096, year = {2010}, author = {Vineis, P}, title = {Climate change and the diversity of its health effects.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {81-82}, pmid = {19921096}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Floods ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid19921095, year = {2010}, author = {Kovats, S}, title = {Research on climate change and health: looking ahead.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {79-80}, pmid = {19921095}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {Advisory Committees ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Peer Review ; *Public Health ; *Research ; }, }
@article {pmid19915118, year = {2009}, author = {Farrell, AP}, title = {Environment, antecedents and climate change: lessons from the study of temperature physiology and river migration of salmonids.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {212}, number = {Pt 23}, pages = {3771-3780}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.023671}, pmid = {19915118}, issn = {1477-9145}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Cardiac Output ; *Climate Change ; *Demography ; *Environment ; Fertility/physiology ; Heart Rate/physiology ; Oxygen Consumption/*physiology ; Rivers ; Salmonidae/*physiology ; Telemetry ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Animal distributions are shaped by the environment and antecedents. Here I show how the temperature dependence of aerobic scope (the difference between maximum and minimum rates of oxygen uptake) is a useful tool to examine the fundamental temperature niches of salmonids and perhaps other fishes. Although the concept of aerobic scope has been recognized for over half a century, only recently has sufficient evidence accumulated to provide a mechanistic explanation for the optimal temperature of salmonids. Evidence suggests that heart rate is the primary driver in supplying more oxygen to tissues as demand increases exponentially with temperature. By contrast, capacity functions (i.e. cardiac stroke volume, tissue oxygen extraction and haemoglobin concentration) are exploited only secondarily if at all, with increasing temperature, and then perhaps only at a temperature nearing that which is lethal to resting fish. Ultimately, however, heart rate apparently becomes a weak partner for the cardiorespiratory oxygen cascade when temperature increases above the optimum for aerobic scope. Thus, the upper limit for heart rate may emerge as a valuable, but simple predictor of optimal temperature in active animals, opening the possibility of using biotelemetry of heart rate in field situations to explore properly the full interplay of environmental factors on aerobic scope. An example of an ecological application of these physiological discoveries is provided using the upriver migration of adult sockeye salmon, which have a remarkable fidelity to their spawning areas and appear to have an optimum temperature for aerobic scope that corresponds to the river temperatures experienced by their antecedents. Unfortunately, there is evidence that this potential adaptation is incompatible with the rapid increase in river temperature presently experienced by salmon as a result of climate change. By limiting aerobic scope, river temperatures in excess of the optimum for aerobic scope directly impact upriver spawning migration and hence lifetime fecundity. Thus, use of aerobic scope holds promise for scientists who wish to make predictions on how climate change may influence animal distributions.}, }
@article {pmid19913681, year = {2009}, author = {Bick, D}, title = {All gas and no air? Why addressing climate change is critical for maternal and infant health.}, journal = {Midwifery}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {597-598}, doi = {10.1016/j.midw.2009.10.003}, pmid = {19913681}, issn = {1532-3099}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Female ; Global Health ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant Welfare/*trends ; Infant, Newborn ; Maternal Health Services/*organization &amp; administration ; Maternal Welfare/*trends ; Pregnancy ; }, }
@article {pmid19909557, year = {2009}, author = {Köhl, M and Baldauf, T and Plugge, D and Krug, J}, title = {Reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD): a climate change mitigation strategy on a critical track.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {10}, pmid = {19909557}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Following recent discussions, there is hope that a mechanism for reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) will be agreed by the Parties of the UNFCCC at their 15th meeting in Copenhagen in 2009 as an eligible action to prevent climate changes and global warming in post-2012 commitment periods. Countries introducing a REDD-regime in order to generate benefits need to implement sound monitoring and reporting systems and specify the associated uncertainties. The principle of conservativeness addresses the problem of estimation errors and requests the reporting of reliable minimum estimates (RME). Here the potential to generate benefits from applying a REDD-regime is proposed with reference to sampling and non-sampling errors that influence the reliability of estimated activity data and emission factors.<br><br>RESULTS: A framework for calculating carbon benefits by including assessment errors is developed. Theoretical, sample based considerations as well as a simulation study for five selected countries with low to high deforestation and degradation rates show that even small assessment errors (5% and less) may outweigh successful efforts to reduce deforestation and degradation.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The generation of benefits from REDD is possible only in situations where assessment errors are carefully controlled.}, }
@article {pmid19908096, year = {2009}, author = {Reid, CE and Gamble, JL}, title = {Aeroallergens, allergic disease, and climate change: impacts and adaptation.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {458-470}, pmid = {19908096}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects/immunology ; Allergens/*immunology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity, Immediate/*immunology ; Meteorological Concepts ; Pollen/immunology ; }, abstract = {Recent research has shown that there are many effects of climate change on aeroallergens and thus allergic diseases in humans. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration acts as a fertilizer for plant growth. The fertilizing effects of carbon dioxide, as well as increased temperatures from climate change, increase pollen production and the allergen content of pollen grains. In addition, higher temperatures are changing the timing and duration of the pollen season. As regional climates change, plants can move into new areas and changes in atmospheric circulation can blow pollen- and spore-containing dust to new areas, thus introducing people to allergens to which they have not been exposed previously. Climate change also influences the concentrations of airborne pollutants, which alone, and in conjunction with aeroallergens, can exacerbate asthma or other respiratory illnesses. The few epidemiological analyses of meteorological factors, aeroallergens, and allergic diseases demonstrate the pathways through which climate can exert its influence on aeroallergens and allergic diseases. In addition to the need for more research, there is the imperative to take preventive and adaptive actions to address the onset and exacerbation of allergic diseases associated with climate variability and change.}, }
@article {pmid19907472, year = {2009}, author = {Hulme, M}, title = {Many types of action are required to tackle climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {462}, number = {7270}, pages = {158}, doi = {10.1038/462158c}, pmid = {19907472}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid19906481, year = {2011}, author = {Kuhn, NJ and Baumhauer, R and Schütt, B}, title = {Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin, NE-Spain.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {92}, number = {2}, pages = {275-283}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.08.023}, pmid = {19906481}, issn = {1095-8630}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Landslides ; Rain ; Spain ; *Water Cycle ; }, abstract = {The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable. In the Gallocanta Basin, climate change and the distinct and continuing land use change since Spain joined the EU in 1986 have created an environment that is in a more or less constant state of transition. This highlights two challenges faced by hydrologists and climatologists involved in developing water management tools for the Gallocanta Basin in particular, but also other areas with sensitive and rapidly changing environments. Hydrologists have to understand the processes and the spatial and temporal patterns of surface-climate interaction in a watershed to assess the impact of climate change on its hydrology. Climatologists, on the other hand, have to develop climate models which provide the appropriate output data, such as reliable information on rainfall characteristics relevant for environmental management.}, }
@article {pmid19902143, year = {2010}, author = {Kjellstrom, T and Butler, AJ and Lucas, RM and Bonita, R}, title = {Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {97-103}, pmid = {19902143}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {*Causality ; Chronic Disease/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Several categories of ill health important at the global level are likely to be affected by climate change. To date the focus of this association has been on communicable diseases and injuries. This paper briefly analyzes potential impacts of global climate change on chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs).<br><br>METHOD: We reviewed the limited available evidence of the relationships between climate exposure and chronic and NCDs. We further reviewed likely mechanisms and pathways for climatic influences on chronic disease occurrence and impacts on pre-existing chronic diseases.<br><br>RESULTS: There are negative impacts of climatic factors and climate change on some physiological functions and on cardio-vascular and kidney diseases. Chronic disease risks are likely to increase with climate change and related increase in air pollution, malnutrition, and extreme weather events.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There are substantial research gaps in this arena. The health sector has a major role in facilitating further research and monitoring the health impacts of global climate change. Such work will also contribute to global efforts for the prevention and control of chronic NCDs in our ageing and urbanizing global population.}, }
@article {pmid19901451, year = {2009}, author = {Larsen, AN and Gregersen, IB and Christensen, OB and Linde, JJ and Mikkelsen, PS}, title = {Potential future increase in extreme one-hour precipitation events over Europe due to climate change.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {60}, number = {9}, pages = {2205-2216}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2009.650}, pmid = {19901451}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; Forecasting/methods ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {In this study the potential increase of extreme precipitation in a future warmer European climate has been examined. Output from the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM4 covering Europe has been analysed for two periods, a control period 1961-1990 and a scenario 2071-2100, the latter following the IPCC scenario A2. The model has a resolution of about 12 km, which is unique compared with existing RCM studies that typically operate at 25-50 km scale, and make the results relevant to hydrological phenomena occurring at the spatial scale of the infrastructure designed to drain off rainfall in large urban areas. Extreme events with one- and 24-hour duration were extracted using the Partial Duration Series approach, a Generalized Pareto Distribution was fitted to the data and T-year events for return periods from 2 to 100 years were calculated for the control and scenario period in model cells across Europe. The analysis shows that there will be an increase of the intensity of extreme events generally in Europe; Scandinavia will experience the highest increase and southern Europe the lowest. A 20 year 1-hour precipitation event will for example become a 4 year event in Sweden and a 10 year event in Spain. Intensities for short durations and high return periods will increase the most, which implies that European urban drainage systems will be challenged in the future.}, }
@article {pmid19900921, year = {2009}, author = {Parrish, DD and Zhu, T}, title = {Climate change. Clean air for megacities.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5953}, pages = {674-675}, doi = {10.1126/science.1176064}, pmid = {19900921}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Cities ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Particulate Matter ; Population Density ; }, }
@article {pmid19900912, year = {2009}, author = {Inman, M}, title = {Climate change. Hot, flat, crowded--and preparing for the worst.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5953}, pages = {662-663}, doi = {10.1126/science.326_662}, pmid = {19900912}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Bangladesh ; *Climate ; Disaster Planning ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Hunger ; Oryza/physiology ; Social Change ; }, }
@article {pmid19900885, year = {2009}, author = {Searchinger, TD and Hamburg, SP and Melillo, J and Chameides, W and Havlik, P and Kammen, DM and Likens, GE and Lubowski, RN and Obersteiner, M and Oppenheimer, M and Robertson, GP and Schlesinger, WH and Tilman, GD}, title = {Climate change. Fixing a critical climate accounting error.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5952}, pages = {527-528}, doi = {10.1126/science.1178797}, pmid = {19900885}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Biofuels ; Biomass ; *Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid19900884, year = {2009}, author = {Jackson, SC}, title = {Climate change. Parallel pursuit of near-term and long-term climate mitigation.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5952}, pages = {526-527}, doi = {10.1126/science.1177042}, pmid = {19900884}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19898994, year = {2011}, author = {Shrader-Frechette, K}, title = {Climate change, nuclear economics, and conflicts of interest.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {75-107}, pmid = {19898994}, issn = {1471-5546}, mesh = {Climate Change/*economics ; Conflict of Interest/*economics ; *Ethics, Business ; *Ethics, Research ; Nuclear Power Plants/*economics ; Scientific Misconduct ; }, abstract = {Merck suppressed data on harmful effects of its drug Vioxx, and Guidant suppressed data on electrical flaws in one of its heart-defibrillator models. Both cases reveal how financial conflicts of interest can skew biomedical research. Such conflicts also occur in electric-utility-related research. Attempting to show that increased atomic energy can help address climate change, some industry advocates claim nuclear power is an inexpensive way to generate low-carbon electricity. Surveying 30 recent nuclear analyses, this paper shows that industry-funded studies appear to fall into conflicts of interest and to illegitimately trim cost data in several main ways. They exclude costs of full-liability insurance, underestimate interest rates and construction times by using "overnight" costs, and overestimate load factors and reactor lifetimes. If these trimmed costs are included, nuclear-generated electricity can be shown roughly 6 times more expensive than most studies claim. After answering four objections, the paper concludes that, although there may be reasons to use reactors to address climate change, economics does not appear to be one of them.}, }
@article {pmid19895976, year = {2009}, author = {Mieszkowska, N and Genner, MJ and Hawkins, SJ and Sims, DW}, title = {Chapter 3. Effects of climate change and commercial fishing on Atlantic cod Gadus morhua.}, journal = {Advances in marine biology}, volume = {56}, number = {}, pages = {213-273}, doi = {10.1016/S0065-2881(09)56003-8}, pmid = {19895976}, issn = {0065-2881}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate Change ; Commerce ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Fisheries ; Gadus morhua/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {During the course of the last century, populations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. have undergone dramatic declines in abundance across their biogeographic range, leading to debate about the relative roles of climatic warming and overfishing in driving these changes. In this chapter, we describe the geographic distributions of this important predator of North Atlantic ecosystems and document extensive evidence for limitations of spatial movement and local adaptation from population genetic markers and electronic tagging. Taken together, this evidence demonstrates that knowledge of spatial population ecology is critical for evaluating the effects of climate change and commercial harvesting. To explore the possible effects of climate change on cod, we first describe thermal influences on individual physiology, growth, activity and maturation. We then evaluate evidence that temperature has influenced population-level processes including direct effects on recruitment through enhanced growth and activity, and indirect effects through changes to larval food resources. Although thermal regimes clearly define the biogeographic range of the species, and strongly influence many aspects of cod biology, the evidence that population declines across the North Atlantic are strongly linked to fishing activity is now overwhelming. Although there is considerable concern about low spawning stock biomasses, high levels of fishing activity continues in many areas. Even with reduced fishing effort, the potential for recovery from low abundance may be compromised by unfavourable climate and Allee effects. Current stock assessment and management approaches are reviewed, alongside newly advocated methods for monitoring stock status and recovery. However, it remains uncertain whether the rebuilding of cod to historic population sizes and demographic structures will be possible in a warmer North Atlantic.}, }
@article {pmid19895975, year = {2009}, author = {Poloczanska, ES and Limpus, CJ and Hays, GC}, title = {Chapter 2. Vulnerability of marine turtles to climate change.}, journal = {Advances in marine biology}, volume = {56}, number = {}, pages = {151-211}, doi = {10.1016/S0065-2881(09)56002-6}, pmid = {19895975}, issn = {0065-2881}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Nesting Behavior/physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; Temperature ; Turtles/*physiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Marine turtles are generally viewed as vulnerable to climate change because of the role that temperature plays in the sex determination of embryos, their long life history, long age-to-maturity and their highly migratory nature. Extant species of marine turtles probably arose during the mid-late Jurassic period (180-150 Mya) so have survived past shifts in climate, including glacial periods and warm events and therefore have some capacity for adaptation. The present-day rates of increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated temperature changes, are very rapid; the capacity of marine turtles to adapt to this rapid change may be compromised by their relatively long generation times. We consider the evidence and likely consequences of present-day trends of climate change on marine turtles. Impacts are likely to be complex and may be positive as well as negative. For example, rising sea levels and increased storm intensity will negatively impact turtle nesting beaches; however, extreme storms can also lead to coastal accretion. Alteration of wind patterns and ocean currents will have implications for juveniles and adults in the open ocean. Warming temperatures are likely to impact directly all turtle life stages, such as the sex determination of embryos in the nest and growth rates. Warming of 2 degrees C could potentially result in a large shift in sex ratios towards females at many rookeries, although some populations may be resilient to warming if female biases remain within levels where population success is not impaired. Indirectly, climate change is likely to impact turtles through changes in food availability. The highly migratory nature of turtles and their ability to move considerable distances in short periods of time should increase their resilience to climate change. However, any such resilience of marine turtles to climate change is likely to be severely compromised by other anthropogenic influences. Development of coastlines may threaten nesting beaches and reproductive success, and pollution and eutrophication is threatening important coastal foraging habitats for turtles worldwide. Exploitation and bycatch in other fisheries has seriously reduced marine turtle populations. The synergistic effects of other human-induced stressors may seriously reduce the capacity of some turtle populations to adapt to the current rates of climate change. Conservation recommendations to increase the capacity of marine turtle populations to adapt to climate change include increasing population resilience, for example by the use of turtle exclusion devices in fisheries, protection of nesting beaches from the viewpoints of both conservation and coastal management, and increased international conservation efforts to protect turtles in regions where there is high unregulated or illegal fisheries (including turtle harvesting). Increasing research efforts on the critical knowledge gaps of processes influencing population numbers, such as identifying ocean foraging hotspots or the processes that underlie the initiation of nesting migrations and selection of breeding areas, will inform adaptive management in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid19895974, year = {2009}, author = {Reid, PC and Fischer, AC and Lewis-Brown, E and Meredith, MP and Sparrow, M and Andersson, AJ and Antia, A and Bates, NR and Bathmann, U and Beaugrand, G and Brix, H and Dye, S and Edwards, M and Furevik, T and Gangstø, R and Hátún, H and Hopcroft, RR and Kendall, M and Kasten, S and Keeling, R and Le Quéré, C and Mackenzie, FT and Malin, G and Mauritzen, C and Olafsson, J and Paull, C and Rignot, E and Shimada, K and Vogt, M and Wallace, C and Wang, Z and Washington, R}, title = {Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change.}, journal = {Advances in marine biology}, volume = {56}, number = {}, pages = {1-150}, doi = {10.1016/S0065-2881(09)56001-4}, pmid = {19895974}, issn = {0065-2881}, mesh = {Air Movements ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Arctic Regions ; Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Oceanography ; Oceans and Seas ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea-level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up approximately 40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean 'carbon pumps' (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice-ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.}, }
@article {pmid19893803, year = {2009}, author = {Green, EI and Blashki, G and Berry, HL and Harley, D and Horton, G and Hall, G}, title = {Preparing Australian medical students for climate change.}, journal = {Australian family physician}, volume = {38}, number = {9}, pages = {726-729}, pmid = {19893803}, issn = {0300-8495}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate Change ; Education, Medical, Undergraduate/*methods ; Humans ; Physician's Role ; *Problem-Based Learning ; *Students, Medical ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is now recognised as a global public health problem and the future medical workforce will be working during a period when the health impacts of climate change are likely to be significant.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This article discusses the ongoing training on the health impacts of climate change for the current and future medical workforce.<br><br>DISCUSSION: The role of medical practitioners in the coming decades will need to include assisting communities to adapt to changing climatic conditions, managing climate sensitive illnesses, and contributing to mitigation efforts to prevent climate change. Climate change and health should be built into the curricula of Australian medical schools spanning public health, clinical medicine, preventive health and global health. We propose a problem based learning approach to highlight clinical and public health implications, and present two hypothetical case studies suitable for teaching purposes.}, }
@article {pmid19892969, year = {2009}, author = {Willis, KJ and Bhagwat, SA}, title = {Ecology. Biodiversity and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5954}, pages = {806-807}, doi = {10.1126/science.1178838}, pmid = {19892969}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Africa ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds ; Butterflies ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Plants ; Population Dynamics ; South America ; Trees ; Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid19892946, year = {2009}, author = {Bierbaum, RM and Zoellick, RB}, title = {Development and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5954}, pages = {771}, doi = {10.1126/science.1183876}, pmid = {19892946}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Interdisciplinary Communication ; *International Cooperation ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid19892945, year = {2009}, author = {Cohen, J and Rau, A and Brüning, K}, title = {Climate change. Bridging the Montreal-Kyoto gap.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5955}, pages = {940-941}, doi = {10.1126/science.1176958}, pmid = {19892945}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19888939, year = {2009}, author = {Stewart, JR}, title = {The evolutionary consequence of the individualistic response to climate change.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {22}, number = {12}, pages = {2363-2375}, doi = {10.1111/j.1420-9101.2009.01859.x}, pmid = {19888939}, issn = {1420-9101}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Fossils ; }, abstract = {The Quaternary fossil record has abundant evidence for ecologically nonanalogue communities made up of combinations of modern taxa not seen in sympatry today. A brief review of the literature detailing these nonanalogue communities is given with a discussion of their various proposed causes. The individualistic, Gleasonian, response of species to climate and environmental change is favoured by many. The degree to which communities are nonanalogue appears to increase with greater time depth, and this progressive process is a necessary outcome of the individualistic response of species to climate change through time. In addition, it is noted that populations within species, as well as the species as a whole, respond individualistically. This paper proposes that many elements of nonanalogue communities are extinct populations, which may explain their environmentally anomalous combinations. These extinct populations are, by definition, lineages without descendents. It is further proposed that the differential extinction of populations, as a result of continuous ecological reassembly, could amount to a significant evolutionary phenomenon.}, }
@article {pmid19876548, year = {2009}, author = {Walpole, SC and Rasanathan, K and Campbell-Lendrum, D}, title = {Natural and unnatural synergies: climate change policy and health equity.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {87}, number = {10}, pages = {799-801}, pmid = {19876548}, issn = {1564-0604}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Global Health ; Health Policy ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Poverty ; Public Health ; *Public Policy ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid19873894, year = {2009}, author = {Biello, D}, title = {Burying climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {301}, number = {5}, pages = {23-25}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican1109-23}, pmid = {19873894}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide ; *Coal ; Greenhouse Effect/*prevention &amp; control ; Industrial Waste/*prevention &amp; control ; *Power Plants ; West Virginia ; }, }
@article {pmid19862703, year = {2009}, author = {Frimmel, S and Hemmer, CJ and Löbermann, M and Reisinger, EC}, title = {[Climate change and global warming. Towards the global spread of tropical infectious diseases? Climate Change and Global Warming].}, journal = {Pharmazie in unserer Zeit}, volume = {38}, number = {6}, pages = {492-499}, doi = {10.1002/pauz.200900335}, pmid = {19862703}, issn = {1615-1003}, mesh = {Animals ; Disease Vectors ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Infections/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Tropical Medicine ; }, }
@article {pmid19860164, year = {2009}, author = {Wassel, JJ}, title = {Public health preparedness for the impact of global warming on human health.}, journal = {American journal of disaster medicine}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {217-225}, pmid = {19860164}, issn = {1932-149X}, mesh = {Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; Disease Outbreaks/*prevention &amp; control ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Public Health Practice ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To assess the changes in weather and weather-associated disturbances related to global warming; the impact on human health of these changes; and the public health preparedness mandated by this impact.<br><br>DESIGN: Qualitative review of the literature. Articles will be obtained by searching PubMed database, Google, and Google Scholar search engines using terms such as "global warming," "climate change," "human health," "public health," and "preparedness."<br><br>RESULTS: Sixty-seven journal articles were reviewed.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The projections and signs of global environmental changes are worrisome, and there are reasons to believe that related information may have been conservatively interpreted and presented in the recent past. Although the challenges are great, there are many opportunities for devising beneficial solutions at individual, community, and global levels. It is essential for public health professionals to become involved in advocating for change at all of these levels, as well as through professional organizations. We must begin "greening" our own lives and clinical practice, and start talking about these issues with patients. As we build walkable neighborhoods, change methods of energy production, and make water use and food production and distribution more sustainable, the benefits to improved air quality, a stabilized climate, social support, and individual and community health will be dramatic.}, }
@article {pmid19860158, year = {2009}, author = {van Beers, C and van den Bergh, JC}, title = {Environmental harm of hidden subsidies: global warming and acidification.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {38}, number = {6}, pages = {339-341}, doi = {10.1579/08-a-616.1}, pmid = {19860158}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Environment ; Environmental Pollution/*economics ; *Financing, Government ; Global Health ; *Global Warming ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Netherlands ; Private Sector/economics ; Public Policy ; Public Sector/economics ; Risk Factors ; Transportation/economics ; }, abstract = {We investigate environmental impacts of off-budget or indirect subsidies, which, unlike on-budget subsidies, are not visible in government budgets. Such subsidies have received little attention in economic and environmental research, even though they may be at least as important from an environmental perspective as on-budget subsidies. We offer a typology of indirect subsidies. Next, we estimate the magnitude of these subsidies and their impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) and acidifying emissions for the agriculture, energy, and transport sectors in The Netherlands. The calculations are based on a model approach that translates a particular subsidy into price and quantity changes using empirical elasticities, followed by environmental effect estimates using pollution-intensity parameters. The various environmental pollution effects are aggregated into environmental indicators. The results show, among others, that GHG emissions caused by off-budget subsidies contribute to more than 30% of the policy targets specified by the Kyoto Protocol for CO2 emissions reduction by The Netherlands. Reforming or removing off-budget subsidies may thus be an important strategy of effective climate policy.}, }
@article {pmid19857404, year = {2009}, author = {Ringsted, C}, title = {[Implementation of new knowledge in times of climate change?].}, journal = {Ugeskrift for laeger}, volume = {171}, number = {44}, pages = {3203-3206}, pmid = {19857404}, issn = {1603-6824}, mesh = {*Climate ; Diffusion of Innovation ; Education, Medical, Continuing ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; Information Dissemination ; Knowledge ; Professional Competence ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is the primary threat to public health in the 21st century. There is a huge need for creation of new knowledge on how most effectively and efficiently to respond to the negative effects on health. Participatory research and development projects may be essential in creation and dissemination of new knowledge. Theoretically underpinned interventions and implementation strategies are necessary to ensure that knowledge is translated into action. Universities and health care organisations have a central role in preparing future health professionals by giving them the skills and knowledge needed.}, }
@article {pmid19857401, year = {2009}, author = {Lidegaard, &#xd8;}, title = {[Lifestyle and climate change].}, journal = {Ugeskrift for laeger}, volume = {171}, number = {44}, pages = {3194-3197}, pmid = {19857401}, issn = {1603-6824}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Health Promotion ; Humans ; *Life Style ; }, abstract = {The majority of physicians are aware of the urgency of preventing major global warming, and of the global health consequences such warming could bring. Therefore, we should perhaps be more motivated to mitigate these climate changes. The Danish Medical Association should stress the importance of preventing major global climate health disasters, and the need for ambitious international reduction agreements. In our advice and treatment of patients, focus could be on mutually shared strategies comprising mitigation of global warming and changing of life-style habits to improve our general health.}, }
@article {pmid19857399, year = {2009}, author = {Hendriksen, C and Vass, M}, title = {[Climate change and consequences for the elderly].}, journal = {Ugeskrift for laeger}, volume = {171}, number = {44}, pages = {3188-3190}, pmid = {19857399}, issn = {1603-6824}, mesh = {Aged ; *Climate ; *Frail Elderly ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Heat waves may cause increased mortality, especially among frail elderly. The consequences of heat waves can be prevented by reducing indoor temperature, increasing intake of water with relevant electrolytes and ongoing assessment of medication and chronic disease. The regional and municipal administrative bodies should create management plans for heat waves and other extreme weather situations.}, }
@article {pmid19857398, year = {2009}, author = {Sommer, J and Plaschke, P and Poulsen, LK}, title = {[Allergic disease--pollen allergy and climate change].}, journal = {Ugeskrift for laeger}, volume = {171}, number = {44}, pages = {3184-3187}, pmid = {19857398}, issn = {1603-6824}, mesh = {Asthma/epidemiology/etiology ; *Climate ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Pollen/*adverse effects ; Respiratory Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology/etiology ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/epidemiology/etiology ; Risk Factors ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Pollen allergy currently affects a fifth of the population. A warmer climate will lead to a longer pollen season and more days with high pollen counts. In addition, a warmer climate increases the risk of proliferation of new plants with well-known allergenic pollens like ragweed, plane tree and wall pellitory, which have not previously caused allergy in Denmark. The consequences will be more people with hay fever and pollen asthma, longer allergy seasons and an increase in the severity of symptoms, disease-related costs and demands on health care for diagnosis and treatment of more complex allergies.}, }
@article {pmid19857397, year = {2009}, author = {Faergeman, O and Østergaard, L}, title = {[Climate change, food production and human health].}, journal = {Ugeskrift for laeger}, volume = {171}, number = {44}, pages = {3181-3184}, pmid = {19857397}, issn = {1603-6824}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; Animals, Domestic ; *Climate ; Environmental Pollution ; *Food Supply ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Meat/adverse effects/supply &amp; distribution ; Nutrition Policy ; Risk Factors ; Zoonoses/microbiology/transmission ; }, abstract = {Production of livestock accounts for 18% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Although livestock products can alleviate malnutrition in poor countries, they are associated with diseases of affluence in wealthy countries. Red meat (pork, beef, sheep and goat), especially, is associated with higher rates of death due to cardiovascular disease and cancer. A policy of reducing consumption of red meat in wealthy countries and encouraging a limited consumption increase in poor countries would benefit the climate as well as human health.}, }
@article {pmid19857396, year = {2009}, author = {Valentiner-Branth, P and Glismann, SO and Mølbak, K}, title = {[Infectious diseases and climate change].}, journal = {Ugeskrift for laeger}, volume = {171}, number = {44}, pages = {3178-3181}, pmid = {19857396}, issn = {1603-6824}, mesh = {Animals ; Bacterial Infections/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; *Climate ; Communicable Disease Control ; Denmark/epidemiology ; *Disease Vectors ; Europe/epidemiology ; Food Microbiology ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Vectors ; Risk Factors ; Rodentia ; Virus Diseases/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate changes will likely have an impact on the spectrum of infectious diseases in Europe. We may see an increase in vector-borne diseases, diseases spread by rodents such as Hantavirus, and food- and water-borne diseases. As the effects of climate changes are likely to occur gradually, a modern industrialised country such as Denmark will have the opportunity to adapt to the expected changes.}, }
@article {pmid19857393, year = {2009}, author = {Loft, S}, title = {[Air quality and climate change].}, journal = {Ugeskrift for laeger}, volume = {171}, number = {44}, pages = {3168-3171}, pmid = {19857393}, issn = {1603-6824}, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects/analysis/prevention &amp; control ; Air Pollution, Indoor/adverse effects/analysis/prevention &amp; control ; Animals ; Cattle ; *Climate ; Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Health ; Humans ; Methane/analysis ; Ozone/analysis ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Pollen ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Air quality, health and climate change are closely connected. Ozone depends on temperature and the greenhouse gas methane from cattle and biomass. Pollen presence depends on temperature and CO2. The effect of climate change on particulate air pollution is complex, but the likely net effect is greater health risks. Reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions by reduced livestock production and use of combustion for energy production, transport and heating will also improve air quality. Energy savings in buildings and use of CO2 neutral fuels should not deteriorate indoor and outdoor air quality.}, }
@article {pmid19854817, year = {2009}, author = {Merrild, H and Damgaard, A and Christensen, TH}, title = {Recycling of paper: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {746-753}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09348530}, pmid = {19854817}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; *Paper ; }, abstract = {Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been established for recycling of paper waste with focus on a material recovery facility (MRF). The MRF upgrades the paper and cardboard waste before it is delivered to other industries where new paper or board products are produced. The accounting showed that the GHG contributions from the upstream activities and operational activities, with global warming factors (GWFs) of respectively 1 to 29 and 3 to 9 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) paper waste, were small in comparison wih the downstream activities. The GHG contributions from the downstream reprocessing of the paper waste ranged from approximately 490 to 1460 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) of paper waste. The system may be expanded to include crediting of avoided virgin paper production which would result in GHG contributions from -1270 to 390 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) paper waste. It may also be assumed that the wood not used for virgin paper production instead is used for production of energy that in turn is assumed to substitute for fossil fuel energy. This would result in GHG contributions from -1850 to -4400 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) of paper waste. These system expansions reveal very large GHG savings, suggesting that the indirect upstream and operational GHG contributions are negligible in comparison with the indirect downstream emissions. However, the data for reprocessing of paper waste and the data for virgin paper production are highly variable. These differences are mainly related to different energy sources for the mills, both in regards to energy form (heat or electricity) and fuel (biomass or fossil fuels).}, }
@article {pmid19851888, year = {2010}, author = {Turnheim, B and Tezcan, MY}, title = {Complex governance to cope with global environmental risk: an assessment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {517-533}, doi = {10.1007/s11948-009-9170-1}, pmid = {19851888}, issn = {1471-5546}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Congresses as Topic ; Environmental Policy/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Risk ; *Science/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *United Nations ; }, abstract = {In this article, a framework is suggested to deal with the analysis of global environmental risk governance. Climate Change is taken as a particular form of contemporary environmental risk, and mobilised to refine and characterize some salient aspects of new governance challenges. A governance framework is elaborated along three basic features: (1) a close relationship with science, (2) an in-built reflexivity, and (3) forms of governmentality. The UNFCCC-centered system is then assessed according to this three-tier framework. While the two-first requisites are largely met, the analysis of governmentality points to some institutional weak spots.}, }
@article {pmid19851426, year = {2009}, author = {Wilson, N and Chapman, R and Howden-Chapman, P}, title = {New Zealand Government response to climate change: largely fogged up?.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {122}, number = {1303}, pages = {111-113}, pmid = {19851426}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Monitoring/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Government Regulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; New Zealand ; }, }
@article {pmid19850868, year = {2009}, author = {Meerburg, BG and Verhagen, A and Jongschaap, RE and Franke, AC and Schaap, BF and Dueck, TA and van der Werf, A}, title = {Do nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {43}, pages = {E120; author reply E121}, pmid = {19850868}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Brazil ; *Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Hot Temperature ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid19850527, year = {2009}, author = {Crabbe, MJ}, title = {Modelling effects of geoengineering options in response to climate change and global warming: implications for coral reefs.}, journal = {Computational biology and chemistry}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {415-420}, doi = {10.1016/j.compbiolchem.2009.09.004}, pmid = {19850527}, issn = {1476-928X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa/growth &amp; development ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate ; Computational Biology ; *Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Engineering/*trends ; *Global Warming ; }, abstract = {Climate change will have serious effects on the planet and on its ecosystems. Currently, mitigation efforts are proving ineffectual in reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Coral reefs are the most sensitive ecosystems on the planet to climate change, and here we review modelling a number of geoengineering options, and their potential influence on coral reefs. There are two categories of geoengineering, shortwave solar radiation management and longwave carbon dioxide removal. The first set of techniques only reduce some, but not all, effects of climate change, while possibly creating other problems. They also do not affect CO2 levels and therefore fail to address the wider effects of rising CO2, including ocean acidification, important for coral reefs. Solar radiation is important to coral growth and survival, and solar radiation management is not in general appropriate for this ecosystem. Longwave carbon dioxide removal techniques address the root cause of climate change, rising CO2 concentrations, they have relatively low uncertainties and risks. They are worthy of further research and potential implementation, particularly carbon capture and storage, biochar, and afforestation methods, alongside increased mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.}, }
@article {pmid19848138, year = {2009}, author = {Boyd, SB and Horvath, A and Dornfeld, D}, title = {Life-cycle energy demand and global warming potential of computational logic.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {19}, pages = {7303-7309}, doi = {10.1021/es901514n}, pmid = {19848138}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Computers ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Electric Power Supplies ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Industry ; Semiconductors ; }, abstract = {Computational logic, in the form of semiconductor chips of the complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) transistor structure, is used in personal computers, wireless devices, IT network infrastructure, and nearly all modem electronics. This study provides a life-cycle energy analysis for CMOS chips over 7 technology generations with the purpose of comparing energy demand and global warming potential (GWP) impacts of the life-cycle stages, examining trends in these impacts over time and evaluating their sensitivity to data uncertainty and changes in production metrics such as yield. A hybrid life-cycle assessment (LCA) model is used. While life-cycle energy and GWP of emissions have increased on the basis of a wafer or die, these impacts have been reducing per unit of computational power. Sensitivity analysis of the model shows that impacts have the highest relative sensitivity to wafer yield, line yield, and die size and largest absolute sensitivity to the use-phase power demand of the chip.}, }
@article {pmid19847671, year = {2010}, author = {Jamieson, D}, title = {Climate change, responsibility, and justice.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {431-445}, pmid = {19847671}, issn = {1471-5546}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; *Social Justice ; *Social Responsibility ; *Social Values ; }, abstract = {In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility.}, }
@article {pmid19847252, year = {2009}, author = {Lemarchand, D}, title = {Climate change: Early survival of Antarctic ice.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {461}, number = {7267}, pages = {1065-1066}, pmid = {19847252}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Boron ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Foraminifera/chemistry ; Fossils ; History, Ancient ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Ice Cover/chemistry ; Isotopes ; Seawater/chemistry ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid19842327, year = {2009}, author = {Princiotta, F}, title = {Global climate change and the mitigation challenge.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {59}, number = {10}, pages = {1194-1211}, doi = {10.3155/1047-3289.59.10.1194}, pmid = {19842327}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/chemistry ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Climate ; Engineering ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Industry ; Research ; Time Factors ; Transportation ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations, very likely the primary cause of the 0.8 degrees C warming the Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution. With industrial activity and population expected to increase for the rest of the century, large increases in greenhouse gas emissions are projected, with substantial global additional warming predicted. This paper examines forces driving CO2 emissions, a concise sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and research and development (R&amp;D) priorities. To constrain warming to below approximately 2.5 degrees C in 2100, the recent annual 3% CO2 emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 1 to 3% for decades. Furthermore, the current generation of energy generation and end-use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&amp;D) programs fall far short of what is required.}, }
@article {pmid19837711, year = {2009}, author = {Christensen, TH and Simion, F and Tonini, D and Møller, J}, title = {Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {9}, pages = {871-884}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09350333}, pmid = {19837711}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollution/analysis/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Cities ; *Global Warming ; Incineration ; *Models, Theoretical ; Waste Management/*methods ; Waste Products/analysis/classification ; }, abstract = {Global warming factors (kg CO(2)-eq.-tonne(-1) of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical-biological waste treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0-400, scenarios with incineration saved 200-700, and scenarios with mechanical-biological treatment saved 200- 750 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) municipal waste depending on recycling scheme and energy recovery. Key parameters were the amount of paper recycled (it was assumed that wood made excessive by paper recycling substituted for fossil fuel), the crediting of the waste management system for the amount of energy recovered (hard-coal-based energy was substituted), and binding of biogenic carbon in landfills. Most other processes were of less importance. Rational waste management can provide significant savings in society's emission of greenhouse gas depending on waste composition and efficient utilization of the energy recovered.}, }
@article {pmid19837704, year = {2009}, author = {Merrild, H and Christensen, TH}, title = {Recycling of wood for particle board production: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {781-788}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09349418}, pmid = {19837704}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Refuse Disposal/methods ; *Wood ; }, abstract = {The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the recycling of wood waste have been assessed with the purpose to provide useful data that can be used in accounting of greenhouse gas emissions. Here we present data related to the activities in a material recovery facility (MRF) where wood waste is shredded and foreign objects are removed in order to produce wood chips for use in the production of particleboard. The data are presented in accordance with the UOD (upstream, operational, downstream) framework presented in Gentil et al. (Waste Management &amp; Research, 27, 2009). The GHG accounting shows that the emissions related to upstream activities (5 to 41 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) wood waste) and to activities at the MRF (approximately 5 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) wood waste) are negligible compared to the downstream processing (-560 to -120 kg CO(2)equivalents tonne(-1) wood waste). The magnitude of the savings in GHG emissions downstream are mainly related to savings in energy consumption for drying of fresh wood for particleboard production. However, the GHG account highly depends on the choices made in the modelling of the downstream system. The inclusion of saved electricity from avoided chipping of virgin wood does not change the results radically (-665 to -125 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(- 1) wood waste). However, if in addition it is assumed that the GHG emissions from combustion of wood has no global warming potential (GWP) and that the energy produced from excess wood due to recycling substitutes energy from fossil fuels, here assumed to be coal, potentially large downstream GHG emissions savings can be achieved by recycling of waste wood (-1.9 to -1.3 tonnes CO(2)-equivalents tonne(- 1) wood waste). As the data ranges are broad, it is necessary to carefully evaluate the feasibility of the data in the specific system which the GHG accounting is to be applied to.}, }
@article {pmid19836867, year = {2009}, author = {Homer, CS and Hanna, E and McMichael, AJ}, title = {Climate change threatens the achievement of the millennium development goal for maternal health.}, journal = {Midwifery}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {606-612}, doi = {10.1016/j.midw.2009.09.003}, pmid = {19836867}, issn = {1532-3099}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Developing Countries ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Environmental Health ; Female ; Global Health ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Infant Welfare/trends ; Infant, Newborn ; Maternal Health Services/*organization &amp; administration ; Maternal Welfare/*trends ; Pregnancy ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid19835178, year = {2009}, author = {Kumari, HS}, title = {Protecting health from climate change.}, journal = {The Nursing journal of India}, volume = {100}, number = {5}, pages = {102-105}, pmid = {19835178}, issn = {0029-6503}, mesh = {*Climate ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Promotion ; Health Status ; Humans ; India ; Nurse's Role ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid19833938, year = {2009}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Profile: Veerabhadran Ramanathan. From burning dung to global warming and back again.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5951}, pages = {362-363}, doi = {10.1126/science.326_362}, pmid = {19833938}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Chlorofluorocarbons ; *Climate ; Cooking ; Energy-Generating Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; India ; }, }
@article {pmid19833645, year = {2009}, author = {Bronson, FH}, title = {Climate change and seasonal reproduction in mammals.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {364}, number = {1534}, pages = {3331-3340}, pmid = {19833645}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Feeding Behavior ; Mammals/genetics/*physiology ; Reproduction/*physiology ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Seasonal reproduction is common among mammals at all latitudes, even in the deep tropics. This paper (i) discusses the neuroendocrine pathways via which foraging conditions and predictive cues such as photoperiod enforce seasonality, (ii) considers the kinds of seasonal challenges mammals actually face in natural habitats, and (iii) uses the information thus generated to suggest how seasonal reproduction might be influenced by global climate change. Food availability and ambient temperature determine energy balance, and variation in energy balance is the ultimate cause of seasonal breeding in all mammals and the proximate cause in many. Photoperiodic cueing is common among long-lived mammals from the highest latitudes down to the mid-tropics. It is much less common in shorter lived mammals at all latitudes. An unknown predictive cue triggers reproduction in some desert and dry grassland species when it rains. The available information suggests that as our climate changes the small rodents of the world may adapt rather easily but the longer lived mammals whose reproduction is regulated by photoperiod may not do so well. A major gap in our knowledge concerns the tropics; that is where most species live and where we have the least understanding of how reproduction is regulated by environmental factors.}, }
@article {pmid19833644, year = {2009}, author = {Carey, C}, title = {The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {364}, number = {1534}, pages = {3321-3330}, pmid = {19833644}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Birds/genetics/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Reproduction/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Organisms living today are descended from ancestors that experienced considerable climate change in the past. However, they are currently presented with many new, man-made challenges, including rapid climate change. Migration and reproduction of many avian species are controlled by endogenous mechanisms that have been under intense selection over time to ensure that arrival to and departure from breeding grounds is synchronized with moderate temperatures, peak food availability and availability of nesting sites. The timing of egg laying is determined, usually by both endogenous clocks and local factors, so that food availability is near optimal for raising young. Climate change is causing mismatches in food supplies, snow cover and other factors that could severely impact successful migration and reproduction of avian populations unless they are able to adjust to new conditions. Resident (non-migratory) birds also face challenges if precipitation and/or temperature patterns vary in ways that result in mismatches of food and breeding. Predictions that many existing climates will disappear and novel climates will appear in the future suggest that communities will be dramatically restructured by extinctions and changes in range distributions. Species that persist into future climates may be able to do so in part owing to the genetic heritage passed down from ancestors who survived climate changes in the past.}, }
@article {pmid19833643, year = {2009}, author = {Milligan, SR and Holt, WV and Lloyd, R}, title = {Impacts of climate change and environmental factors on reproduction and development in wildlife.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {364}, number = {1534}, pages = {3313-3319}, pmid = {19833643}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Humans ; Invertebrates/classification/physiology ; Plant Development ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Vertebrates/classification/physiology ; }, abstract = {The robustness of the growth of the human population in the face of environmental impacts is in contrast to the sensitivity of wildlife. There is a danger that the success of reproduction of humans provides a false sense of security for the public, media and politicians with respect to wildlife survival, the maintenance of viable ecosystems and the capacity for recovery of damaged ecosystems and endangered species. In reality, the success of humans to populate the planet has been dependent on the combination of the ability to reproduce successfully and to minimize loss of offspring through controlling and manipulating their own micro-environment. In contrast, reproduction in wildlife is threatened by environmental changes operating at many different physiological levels.}, }
@article {pmid19833440, year = {2010}, author = {Randolph, SE}, title = {To what extent has climate change contributed to the recent epidemiology of tick-borne diseases?.}, journal = {Veterinary parasitology}, volume = {167}, number = {2-4}, pages = {92-94}, doi = {10.1016/j.vetpar.2009.09.011}, pmid = {19833440}, issn = {1873-2550}, support = {//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Politics ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Tick-Borne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Ticks/*physiology ; }, abstract = {There is no doubt that all vector-borne diseases are very sensitive to climatic conditions. Many such diseases have shown marked increases in both distribution and incidence during the past few decades, just as human-induced climate change is thought to have exceeded random fluctuations. This coincidence has led to the general perception that climate change has driven disease emergence, but climate change is the inevitable backdrop for all recent events, without implying causality. Coincidence and causality can be disentangled using tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) as a test case, based on the excellent long-term data for this medically significant European disease system. Detailed analysis of climate records since 1970 has revealed abrupt temperature increases just prior to the dramatic upsurge in TBE incidence in many parts of central and eastern Europe. Furthermore, the seasonal patterns of this temperature change are such as might have favoured the transmission of TBE virus between co-feeding ticks. Nevertheless, the pattern of climate change is too uniform to explain the marked heterogeneity in the timing and degree of TBE upsurge, for example in different counties within each of the Baltic countries. Recent decreases as well as increases in TBE incidence must also be taken into account. Instead of a single cause, a network of interacting factors, acting synergistically but with differential force in space and time, would generate this epidemiological heterogeneity. From analysis of past and present events, it appears that human behavioural factors have played a more significant role than purely biological enzootic factors, although there is an explicit causal linkage from one to the other. This includes a range of abiotic and biotic environmental factors, together with human behaviour determined by socio-economic conditions. Many of the abrupt changes followed from the shift from planned to market economies with the fall of Soviet rule. Comparisons between eight countries have indeed revealed a remarkable correlation between poverty indicators and the relative degree of upsurge in TBE from 1993. Against this background of longer-term shifts in TBE incidence, sudden spikes in incidence appear to be due to exceptional weather conditions affecting people's behaviour, which have a differential impact depending on socio-economic factors. This new perspective may also help explain the epidemiology of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever around the eastern Mediterranean region, including the current exceptional epidemic in Turkey.}, }
@article {pmid19822751, year = {2009}, author = {Molina, M and Zaelke, D and Sarma, KM and Andersen, SO and Ramanathan, V and Kaniaru, D}, title = {Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {49}, pages = {20616-20621}, pmid = {19822751}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Canada ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate Change ; *Environment ; Fluorocarbons/analysis ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ozone/analysis ; Risk Factors ; Soot ; }, abstract = {Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early," "urgent," "rapid," and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action" to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years, be substantially implemented in 5-10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO(2) GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO(2) emissions.}, }
@article {pmid19822750, year = {2009}, author = {Wiens, JA and Stralberg, D and Jongsomjit, D and Howell, CA and Snyder, MA}, title = {Niches, models, and climate change: assessing the assumptions and uncertainties.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106 Suppl 2}, number = {Suppl 2}, pages = {19729-19736}, pmid = {19822750}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Algorithms ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; California ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {As the rate and magnitude of climate change accelerate, understanding the consequences becomes increasingly important. Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current ecological niche constraints are used to project future species distributions. These models contain assumptions that add to the uncertainty in model projections stemming from the structure of the models, the algorithms used to translate niche associations into distributional probabilities, the quality and quantity of data, and mismatches between the scales of modeling and data. We illustrate the application of SDMs using two climate models and two distributional algorithms, together with information on distributional shifts in vegetation types, to project fine-scale future distributions of 60 California landbird species. Most species are projected to decrease in distribution by 2070. Changes in total species richness vary over the state, with large losses of species in some "hotspots" of vulnerability. Differences in distributional shifts among species will change species co-occurrences, creating spatial variation in similarities between current and future assemblages. We use these analyses to consider how assumptions can be addressed and uncertainties reduced. SDMs can provide a useful way to incorporate future conditions into conservation and management practices and decisions, but the uncertainties of model projections must be balanced with the risks of taking the wrong actions or the costs of inaction. Doing this will require that the sources and magnitudes of uncertainty are documented, and that conservationists and resource managers be willing to act despite the uncertainties. The alternative, of ignoring the future, is not an option.}, }
@article {pmid19815748, year = {2009}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Both of the world's ice sheets may be shrinking faster and faster.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5950}, pages = {217}, doi = {10.1126/science.326_217a}, pmid = {19815748}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19808739, year = {2009}, author = {Fruergaard, T and Astrup, T and Ekvall, T}, title = {Energy use and recovery in waste management and implications for accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {724-737}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09345276}, pmid = {19808739}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Biofuels ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Electricity ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Hot Temperature ; Waste Management/*methods ; }, abstract = {The energy system plays an essential role in accounting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from waste management systems and waste technologies. This paper focuses on energy use and energy recovery in waste management and outlines how these aspects should be addressed consistently in a GHG perspective. Essential GHG emission data for the most common fuels, electricity and heat are provided. Average data on electricity provision show large variations from country to country due to different fuels being used and different efficiencies for electricity production in the individual countries (0.007-1.13 kg CO(2)-eq. kWh(-1)). Marginal data on electricity provision show even larger variations (0.004-3 kg CO(2)-eq. kWh(-1)). Somewhat less variation in GHG emissions is being found for heat production (0.01-0.69 kg CO(2)-eq. kWh(-1)). The paper further addresses allocation principles and the importance of applying either average or marginal energy data, and it discusses the consequences of introducing reduction targets on CO(2) emissions. All discussed aspects were found to significantly affect the outcome of GHG accounts suggesting transparent reporting to be critical. Recommendations for use of average/marginal energy data are provided.}, }
@article {pmid19808734, year = {2009}, author = {Eisted, R and Larsen, AW and Christensen, TH}, title = {Collection, transfer and transport of waste: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contribution.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {738-745}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09347796}, pmid = {19808734}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Refuse Disposal/*methods ; Transportation/methods ; }, abstract = {The collection, transfer and transport of waste are basic activities of waste management systems all over the world. These activities all use energy and fuels, primarily of fossil origin. Electricity and fuel consumptions of the individual processes were reviewed and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions were quantified. The emission factors were assigned a global warming potential (GWP) and aggregated into global warming factors (GWFs), which express the potential contribution to global warming from collection, transport and transfer of 1 tonne of wet waste. Six examples involving collection, transfer and transport of waste were assessed in terms of GHG emissions, including both provision and use of energy. (GHG emissions related to production, maintenance and disposal of vehicles, equipment, infrastructure and buildings were excluded.) The estimated GWFs varied from 9.4 to 368 kg CO(2)-equivalent (kg CO(2)-eq.) per tonne of waste, depending on method of collection, capacity and choice of transport equipment, and travel distances. The GHG emissions can be reduced primarily by avoiding transport of waste in private cars and by optimization of long distance transport, for example, considering transport by rail and waterways.}, }
@article {pmid19808733, year = {2009}, author = {Bahor, B and Van Brunt, M and Stovall, J and Blue, K}, title = {Integrated waste management as a climate change stabilization wedge.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {9}, pages = {839-849}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09350485}, pmid = {19808733}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollution/analysis/prevention &amp; control/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Waste Management/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Waste Products/analysis/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gas emissions are known to contribute to global increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and are widely believed to contribute to climate change. A reference carbon dioxide concentration of 383 ppm for 2007 is projected to increase to a nominal 500 ppm in less than 50 years according to business as usual models. This concentration change is equivalent to an increase of 7 billion tonnes of carbon per year (7 Gt C year(-1)). The concept of a stabilization wedge was introduced by Pacala and Socolow (Science, 305, 968-972, 2004) to break the 7 Gt C year(- 1) into more manageable 1 Gt C year(- 1) reductions that would be achievable with current technology. A total of fifteen possible 'wedges' were identified; however, an integrated municipal solid waste (MSW) management system based on the European Union's waste management hierarchy was not evaluated as a wedge. This analysis demonstrates that if the tonnage of MSW is allocated to recycling, waste to energy and landfilling in descending order in lieu of existing 'business-as-usual' practices with each option using modern technology and best practices, the system would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 1 Gt C year(-1). This integrated waste management system reduces CO(2) by displacing fossil electrical generation and avoiding manufacturing energy consumption and methane emissions from landfills.}, }
@article {pmid19808732, year = {2009}, author = {Manfredi, S and Tonini, D and Christensen, TH and Scharff, H}, title = {Landfilling of waste: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {825-836}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09348529}, pmid = {19808732}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Refuse Disposal/*methods ; }, abstract = {Accounting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from waste landfilling is summarized with the focus on processes and technical data for a number of different landfilling technologies: open dump (which was included as the worst-case-scenario), conventional landfills with flares and with energy recovery, and landfills receiving low-organic-carbon waste. The results showed that direct emissions of GHG from the landfill systems (primarily dispersive release of methane) are the major contributions to the GHG accounting, up to about 1000 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) for the open dump, 300 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) for conventional landfilling of mixed waste and 70 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) for low-organic-carbon waste landfills. The load caused by indirect, upstream emissions from provision of energy and materials to the landfill was low, here estimated to be up to 16 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1). On the other hand, utilization of landfill gas for electricity generation contributed to major savings, in most cases, corresponding to about half of the load caused by direct GHG emission from the landfill. However, this saving can vary significantly depending on what the generated electricity substitutes for. Significant amounts of biogenic carbon may still be stored within the landfill body after 100 years, which here is counted as a saved GHG emission. With respect to landfilling of mixed waste with energy recovery, the net, average GHG accounting ranged from about -70 to 30 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1), obtained by summing the direct and indirect (upstream and downstream) emissions and accounting for stored biogenic carbon as a saving. However, if binding of biogenic carbon was not accounted for, the overall GHG load would be in the range of 60 to 300 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1). This paper clearly shows that electricity generation as well as accounting of stored biogenic carbon are crucial to the accounting of GHG of waste landfilling.}, }
@article {pmid19808730, year = {2009}, author = {Gentil, E and Clavreul, J and Christensen, TH}, title = {Global warming factor of municipal solid waste management in Europe.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {9}, pages = {850-860}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09350659}, pmid = {19808730}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Cities/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Denmark ; France ; Germany ; Global Warming/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Greece ; Models, Statistical ; Poland ; Refuse Disposal/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; United Kingdom ; Waste Management/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Waste Products/analysis/classification/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {The global warming factor (GWF; CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) waste) performance of municipal waste management has been investigated for six representative European Member States: Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Poland and the United Kingdom. The study integrated European waste statistical data for 2007 in a life-cycle assessment modelling perspective. It is shown that significant GWF benefit was achieved due to the high level of energy and material recovery substituting fossil energy and raw materials production, especially in Denmark and Germany. The study showed that, despite strong regulation of waste management at European level, there are major differences in GWF performance among the member states, due to the relative differences of waste composition, type of waste management technologies available nationally, and the average performance of these technologies. It has been demonstrated through a number of sensitivity analyses that, within the national framework, key waste management technology parameters can influence drastically the national GWF performance of waste management.}, }
@article {pmid19807923, year = {2009}, author = {Chazan, M and Brklacich, M and Whiteside, A}, title = {Rethinking the conceptual terrain of AIDS scholarship: lessons from comparing 27 years of AIDS and climate change research.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {12}, pmid = {19807923}, issn = {1744-8603}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: While there has recently been significant medical advance in understanding and treating HIV, limitations in understanding the complex social dimensions of HIV/AIDS epidemics continue to restrict a host of prevention and development efforts from community through to international levels. These gaps are rooted as much in limited conceptual development as they are in a lack of empirical research.<br><br>METHODS: In this conceptual article, the authors compare and contrast the evolution of climate change and AIDS research. They demonstrate how scholarship and response in these two seemingly disparate areas share certain important similarities, such as the "globalization" of discourses and associated masking of uneven vulnerabilities, the tendency toward techno-fixes, and the polarization of debates within these fields. They also examine key divergences, noting in particular that climate change research has tended to be more forward-looking and longer-term in focus than AIDS scholarship.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Suggesting that AIDS scholars can learn from these key parallels and divergences, the paper offers four directions for advancing AIDS research: (1) focusing more on the differentiation of risk and responsibility within and among AIDS epidemics; (2) taking (back) on board social justice approaches; (3) moving beyond polarized debates; and (4) shifting focus from reactive to forward-looking and proactive approaches.}, }
@article {pmid19806548, year = {2009}, author = {Walker, P}, title = {How to think about the future: history, climate change, and conflict.}, journal = {Prehospital and disaster medicine}, volume = {24 Suppl 2}, number = {}, pages = {s244-6}, doi = {10.1017/s1049023x0002166x}, pmid = {19806548}, issn = {1049-023X}, mesh = {*Climate Change/economics ; Forecasting ; Humanities ; Humans ; Organizational Culture ; Organizational Innovation ; Violence ; }, }
@article {pmid19805268, year = {2009}, author = {Swanson, KL and Sugihara, G and Tsonis, AA}, title = {Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {38}, pages = {16120-16123}, pmid = {19805268}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods/trends ; *Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Global mean temperature at the Earth's surface responds both to externally imposed forcings, such as those arising from anthropogenic greenhouse gases, as well as to natural modes of variability internal to the climate system. Variability associated with these latter processes, generally referred to as natural long-term climate variability, arises primarily from changes in oceanic circulation. Here we present a technique that objectively identifies the component of inter-decadal global mean surface temperature attributable to natural long-term climate variability. Removal of that hidden variability from the actual observed global mean surface temperature record delineates the externally forced climate signal, which is monotonic, accelerating warming during the 20th century.}, }
@article {pmid19805037, year = {2009}, author = {Tingley, MW and Monahan, WB and Beissinger, SR and Moritz, C}, title = {Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106 Suppl 2}, number = {Suppl 2}, pages = {19637-19643}, pmid = {19805037}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; California ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; Nevada ; }, abstract = {In the face of environmental change, species can evolve new physiological tolerances to cope with altered climatic conditions or move spatially to maintain existing physiological associations with particular climates that define each species' climatic niche. When environmental change occurs over short temporal and large spatial scales, vagile species are expected to move geographically by tracking their climatic niches through time. Here, we test for evidence of niche tracking in bird species of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, focusing on 53 species resurveyed nearly a century apart at 82 sites on four elevational transects. Changes in climate and bird distributions resulted in focal species shifting their average climatological range over time. By comparing the directions of these shifts relative to the centroids of species' range-wide climatic niches, we found that 48 species (90.6%) tracked their climatic niche. Analysis of niche sensitivity on an independent set of occurrence data significantly predicted the temperature and precipitation gradients tracked by species. Furthermore, in 50 species (94.3%), site-specific occupancy models showed that the position of each site relative to the climatic niche centroid explained colonization and extinction probabilities better than a null model with constant probabilities. Combined, our results indicate that the factors limiting a bird species' range in the Sierra Nevada in the early 20th century also tended to drive changes in distribution over time, suggesting that climatic models derived from niche theory might be used successfully to forecast where and how to conserve species in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19803181, year = {2009}, author = {Xu, ZL and Gao, Q}, title = {[Labidocera euchaeta: its distribution in Yangtze River Estuary and responses to global warming].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {1196-1201}, pmid = {19803181}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Animals ; China ; Copepoda/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Fresh Water ; *Global Warming ; Rivers ; *Salinity ; Seasons ; Seawater ; Temperature ; Zooplankton/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Based on the investigation data from eight oceanographic censuses in Yangtze River Estuary (28 degrees 00'-32 degrees 00' N, 122 degrees 00'-123 degrees 30' E) in four seasons of 1959 and 2002, the seasonal distribution pattern of Labidocera euchaeta in the Estuary and the responses of this zooplankton to global warming were analyzed. In the study area, L. euchaeta had a higher average abundance in winter and spring than in summer and autumn, with the highest occurrence frequency in winter and an obvious aggregation in spring and summer. Water salinity was the key factor determining the horizontal distribution of L. euchaeta. The optimal water temperature and salinity for L. euchaeta were 16 degrees C and 12-20, respectively, indicating that this zooplankton belonged to a warm temperate brackish water species. Comparing with that in 1959, the abundance of L. euchaeta in 2002 decreased obviously, which could be related to global warming and suggested that L. euchaeta could be used as an important indictor species of ocean warming in Yangtze River Estuary. The high abundance of L. euchaeta in spring appeared in the most turbid zone of Yangtze River Estuary, being of significance in maintaining the functions of fishing grounds in the waters.}, }
@article {pmid19798904, year = {2009}, author = {Ergasti, G and Pippia, V and Murzilli, G and De Luca D'Alessandro, E}, title = {[Climate change and Kyoto protocol].}, journal = {Annali di igiene : medicina preventiva e di comunita}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {271-281}, pmid = {19798904}, issn = {1120-9135}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Codes of Ethics ; Health ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Due to industrial revolution and the heavy use of fossil fuels, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased dramatically during the last hundred years, and this has lead to an increase in mean global temperature. The environmental consequences of this are: the melting of the ice caps, an increase in mean sea-levels, catastrophic events such as floodings, hurricanes and earthquakes, changes to the animal and vegetable kingdoms, a growth in vectors and bacteria in water thus increasing the risk of infectious diseases and damage to agriculture. The toxic effects of the pollution on human health are both acute and chronic. The Kyoto Protocol is an important step in the campaign against climatic changes but it is not sufficient. A possible solution might be for the States which produce the most of pollution to adopt a better political stance for the environment and to use renewable resources for the production of energy.}, }
@article {pmid19798589, year = {2010}, author = {Cerutti, F}, title = {Defining risk, motivating responsibility and rethinking global warming.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {489-499}, doi = {10.1007/s11948-009-9176-8}, pmid = {19798589}, issn = {1471-5546}, mesh = {Family Characteristics ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; *Motivation ; *Nuclear Weapons ; Politics ; *Risk ; Social Justice ; *Social Responsibility ; }, abstract = {This paper breaks with the sociological notion of 'risk society' and argues in favour of a philosophical view that sees the two planetary threats of late modernity, nuclear weapons and global warming, as ultimate challenges to morality and politics rather than risks that we can take and manage. The paper also raises the question of why we should feel responsible for the effects of these two global challenges on future generations and in this sense elaborates on the transgenerational chain of parenthood rather than on considerations of justice.}, }
@article {pmid19797631, year = {2009}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {326}, number = {5949}, pages = {28-29}, doi = {10.1126/science.326_28a}, pmid = {19797631}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19795634, year = {2009}, author = {Tang, FD and Han, SJ and Zhang, JH}, title = {[Carbon dynamics of broad-leaved Korean pine forest ecosystem in Changbai Mountains and its responses to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {1285-1292}, pmid = {19795634}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Altitude ; Atmosphere/analysis ; Biomass ; *Carbon/analysis/metabolism ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; China ; Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Models, Theoretical ; Pinus/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Seasons ; Soil/analysis ; }, abstract = {By using process model Sim-CYCLE based on dry matter production theory, this paper estimated the gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP), ecosystem carbon storage (WE), total plant carbon storage (WP), and total soil carbon storage (WS) of broad-leaved Korean pine forest ecosystem in Changbai Mountains from 1982 to 2003, and analyzed the variations of these indices under present climate condition and carbon equilibrium state as well as the responses of these indices to climate change scenarios in the future. Under present climate condition, the estimated GPP, NPP, and NEP were 14.9, 8.7, and 2.7 Mg C x hm(-2) x a(-1), being 2.8 Mg C x hm(-2) x a(-1) less and 1.4 and 0.2 Mg C x hm(-2) x a(-1) higher than the measured values, respectively. The NEP in June-August occupied more than 90% of the annual NEP, and the maximum monthly NEP appeared in July (1.23 Mg C x hm(-2) month(-1)). The estimated WE, WP, and WS were 550.8, 183.8, and 367.0 Mg C x hm(-2), respectively, very close to the measured values. From present climate condition to carbon equilibrium state, the estimated carbon storages of the forest ecosystem increased to some extent, with the GPP and NPP being 17.7 and 7.3 Mg C x hm(-2) x a(-1), respectively, suggesting that the role of the forest ecosystem as a carbon "sink" declined gradually with the increase of carbon storage. A 2 degree C-increment of air temperature did not benefit the increase of GPP, NPP and NEP, while doubling CO2 concentration was in adverse. The effects of the combination of doubling CO2 concentration and 2 degree C-increment of air temperature on the GPP, NPP, and NEP were similar to those of doubling CO2 concentration. The climate change scenario in the future had the same effects both on the carbon storage and on the productivity of the forest ecosystem, which was mainly correlated to the effects of primary productivity on the carbon storage.}, }
@article {pmid19793742, year = {2010}, author = {McKechnie, AE and Wolf, BO}, title = {Climate change increases the likelihood of catastrophic avian mortality events during extreme heat waves.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {253-256}, pmid = {19793742}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animals ; Bird Diseases/*mortality ; Birds ; Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Dehydration/mortality/*veterinary ; Desert Climate ; Drinking/physiology ; *Hot Temperature ; *Models, Biological ; Time Factors ; Water Loss, Insensible/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Severe heat waves have occasionally led to catastrophic avian mortality in hot desert environments. Climate change models predict increases in the intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves. A model of avian evaporative water requirements and survival times during the hottest part of day reveals that the predicted increases in maximum air temperatures will result in large fractional increases in water requirements (in small birds, equivalent to 150-200 % of current values), which will severely reduce survival times during extremely hot weather. By the 2080s, desert birds will experience reduced survival times much more frequently during mid-summer, increasing the frequency of catastrophic mortality events.}, }
@article {pmid19793407, year = {2010}, author = {Sparks, P and Jessop, DC and Chapman, J and Holmes, K}, title = {Pro-environmental actions, climate change, and defensiveness: do self-affirmations make a difference to people's motives and beliefs about making a difference?.}, journal = {The British journal of social psychology}, volume = {49}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {553-568}, doi = {10.1348/014466609X471976}, pmid = {19793407}, issn = {0144-6665}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Climate Change ; Cognitive Dissonance ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Culture ; *Defense Mechanisms ; Denial, Psychological ; Environmental Health ; Female ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Motivation ; Recycling ; *Self Concept ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Social concerns with the imperative of environmentally sustainable life-styles sit rather awkwardly with ideas about the widespread denial of global environmental problems. Given the very obvious threat and denial dimensions to these issues, we conducted two studies assessing the impact of self-affirmation manipulations on people's beliefs and motives regarding pro-environmental actions. In Study 1, participants (N=125) completed a self-affirmation task and read information on the threat of climate change. Results showed that the self-affirmation manipulation resulted in lower levels of denial and greater perceptions of personal involvement in relation to climate change. In Study 2, participants (N=90) completed a self-affirmation task and read some information on recycling. Findings showed a beneficial effect of a self-affirmation manipulation on intentions to increase recycling behaviour (among lower recyclers). The results are discussed in relation to the potential benefits of self-affirmation manipulations for promoting pro-environmental actions.}, }
@article {pmid19779440, year = {2009}, author = {Ashok, K and Yamagata, T}, title = {Climate change: The El Niño with a difference.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {461}, number = {7263}, pages = {481-484}, pmid = {19779440}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid19778374, year = {2009}, author = {Singh, E and Tiwari, S and Agrawal, M}, title = {Effects of elevated ozone on photosynthesis and stomatal conductance of two soybean varieties: a case study to assess impacts of one component of predicted global climate change.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {11 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {101-108}, doi = {10.1111/j.1438-8677.2009.00263.x}, pmid = {19778374}, issn = {1435-8603}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Ozone/*metabolism ; Photosynthesis/*physiology ; Plant Leaves/*metabolism ; Plant Stomata/*metabolism ; Glycine max/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Global climatic change scenarios predict a significant increase in future tropospheric ozone (O(3)) concentrations. The present investigation was done to assess the effects of elevated O(3) (70 and 100 ppb) on electron transport, carbon fixation, stomatal conductance and pigment concentrations in two tropical soybean (Glycine max L.) varieties, PK 472 and Bragg. Plants were exposed to O(3) for 4 h.day(-1) from 10:00 to 14:00 from germination to maturity. Photosynthesis of both varieties were adversely affected, but the reduction was higher in PK 472 than Bragg. A comparison of chlorophyll a fluorescence kinetics with carbon fixation suggested greater sensitivity of dark reactions than light reactions of photosynthesis to O(3) stress. The O(3)-induced uncoupling between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance in PK 472 suggests the reduction in photosynthesis may be attributed to a factor other than reduced stomatal conductance. An increase in internal CO(2) concentration in both O(3)-treated soybean varieties compared suggests that the reduction in photosynthesis was due to damage to the photosynthetic apparatus, leading to accumulation of internal CO(2) and stomatal closure. The adverse impact of O(3) stress increased at higher O(3) concentrations in both soybean varieties leading to large reductions in photosynthesis. This study suggests that O(3)-induced reductions in photosynthesis in tropical and temperate varieties are similar.}, }
@article {pmid19778364, year = {2009}, author = {Rennenberg, H and Dannenmann, M and Gessler, A and Kreuzwieser, J and Simon, J and Papen, H}, title = {Nitrogen balance in forest soils: nutritional limitation of plants under climate change stresses.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {11 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {4-23}, doi = {10.1111/j.1438-8677.2009.00241.x}, pmid = {19778364}, issn = {1435-8603}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Nitrogen/chemistry/*metabolism ; Plant Development ; Plants/*metabolism ; Soil/*analysis ; *Stress, Physiological ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Forest ecosystems with low soil nitrogen (N) availability are characterized by direct competition for this growth-limiting resource between several players, i.e. various components of vegetation, such as old-growth trees, natural regeneration and understorey species, mycorrhizal fungi, free-living fungi and bacteria. With the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted in current climate change scenarios, also competition for N between plants and/or soil microorganisms will be affected. In this review, we summarize the present understanding of ecosystem N cycling in N-limited forests and its interaction with extreme climate events, such as heat, drought and flooding. More specifically, the impacts of environmental stresses on microbial release and consumption of bioavailable N, N uptake and competition between plants, as well as plant and microbial uptake are presented. Furthermore, the consequences of drying-wetting cycles on N cycling are discussed. Additionally, we highlight the current methodological difficulties that limit present understanding of N cycling in forest ecosystems and the need for interdisciplinary studies.}, }
@article {pmid19777376, year = {2010}, author = {Colson-Proch, C and Morales, A and Hervant, F and Konecny, L and Moulin, C and Douady, CJ}, title = {First cellular approach of the effects of global warming on groundwater organisms: a study of the HSP70 gene expression.}, journal = {Cell stress &amp; chaperones}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {259-270}, pmid = {19777376}, issn = {1466-1268}, mesh = {Amino Acid Sequence ; *Amphipoda/genetics/metabolism ; Animals ; Base Sequence ; Gene Expression ; *Global Warming ; *Greenhouse Effect ; HSP70 Heat-Shock Proteins/classification/genetics/*metabolism ; Humans ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; RNA/analysis ; Sequence Alignment ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Whereas the consequences of global warming at population or community levels are well documented, studies at the cellular level are still scarce. The study of the physiological or metabolic effects of such small increases in temperature (between +2 degrees C and +6 degrees C) is difficult because they are below the amplitude of the daily or seasonal thermal variations occurring in most environments. In contrast, subterranean biotopes are highly thermally buffered (+/-1 degrees C within a year), and underground water organisms could thus be particularly well suited to characterise cellular responses of global warming. To this purpose, we studied genes encoding chaperone proteins of the HSP70 family in amphipod crustaceans belonging to the ubiquitous subterranean genus Niphargus. An HSP70 sequence was identified in eight populations of two complexes of species of the Niphargus genus (Niphargus rhenorhodanensis and Niphargus virei complexes). Expression profiles were determined for one of these by reverse transcription and quantitative polymerase chain reaction, confirming the inducible nature of this gene. An increase in temperature of 2 degrees C seemed to be without effect on N. rhenorhodanensis physiology, whereas a heat shock of +6 degrees C represented an important thermal stress for these individuals. Thus, this study shows that although Niphargus individuals do not undergo any daily or seasonal thermal variations in underground water, they display an inducible HSP70 heat shock response. This controlled laboratory-based physiological experiment constitutes a first step towards field investigations of the cellular consequences of global warming on subterranean organisms.}, }
@article {pmid19774340, year = {2010}, author = {O'Neill, MS and Jackman, DK and Wyman, M and Manarolla, X and Gronlund, CJ and Brown, DG and Brines, SJ and Schwartz, J and Diez-Roux, AV}, title = {US local action on heat and health: are we prepared for climate change?.}, journal = {International journal of public health}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {105-112}, pmid = {19774340}, issn = {1661-8564}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; Data Collection ; *Health Planning ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Local Government ; *Public Health ; United States ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Global climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves, hot weather, and temperature variability, which contribute to mortality and illness. Baseline information on local efforts to reduce heat vulnerability, including public advisories; minimizing greenhouse gas emissions; and mitigating urban heat islands, is lacking.<br><br>METHODS: We designed a survey about local government programs to prevent health problems and reduce heat exposure during heatwaves and administered it to 285 US communities.<br><br>RESULTS: Of 70 respondents, 26 indicated that excessive heat events are a significant issue for the local government; 30 had established preventive programs. Local government leadership and public health impacts of heat were cited most frequently as extremely important determinants of preventive programs, followed by implementation costs, economic impacts of hot weather, and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. Cool paving materials and vegetated roofs were common heat mitigation strategies. Fact sheets and case studies were desired guidance for protecting communities during hot weather.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: New partnerships and financial resources are needed to support more widespread local action to prevent adverse health consequences of climate change and promote environmental sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid19769097, year = {2009}, author = {Wooldridge, SA and Done, TJ}, title = {Improved water quality can ameliorate effects of climate change on corals.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {1492-1499}, doi = {10.1890/08-0963.1}, pmid = {19769097}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*microbiology ; Ecosystem ; Eukaryota ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Queensland ; *Symbiosis ; Water/*analysis ; }, abstract = {The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic climate change are widely known. Moreover, rates of genetic adaptation and/or changes in the coral-zooxanthella partnerships are considered unlikely to be sufficiently fast for corals to acquire increased physiological resistance to increasing sea temperatures and declining pH. However, it has been suggested that coral reef resilience to climate change may be improved by good local management of coral reefs, including management of water quality. Here, using major data sets from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, we investigate geographic patterns of coral bleaching in 1998 and 2002 and outline a synergism between heat stress and nutrient flux as a major causative mechanism for those patterns. The study provides the first concrete evidence for the oft-expressed belief that improved coral reef management will increase the regional-scale survival prospects of coral reefs to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19768170, year = {2009}, author = {Rosenthal, JP and Jessup, CM}, title = {Global climate change and health: developing a research agenda for the NIH.}, journal = {Transactions of the American Clinical and Climatological Association}, volume = {120}, number = {}, pages = {129-141}, pmid = {19768170}, issn = {0065-7778}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Humans ; National Institutes of Health (U.S.) ; Research Design ; United States ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is receiving worldwide attention because of its anticipated impacts on the Earth's physical and biological systems. Through its effects on natural and human environments, climate change will likely impact economic viability and human health and well-being. The impact of climate change on human health is likely to be complex and significant, including effects on cancers, cardiovascular and respiratory disease, food-, water-, and vector-borne diseases, heat-related illness, mental and social well-being, nutrition, trauma, and vulnerable demographic sectors. Most assessments predict that these effects will disproportionately affect the poor, the elderly and the young, especially those living in Africa and Southeast Asia, where environmental conditions are poor, health infrastructure is weak and the burden of disease is great. Enormous efforts are underway to plan and finance climate change adaptation programs within national governments (including multiple U.S. agencies), United Nations organizations and private philanthropies. However, these endeavors are proceeding with a relatively poor understanding of the nature and magnitude of probable effects of climate change on health. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) already funds a portfolio of projects that are indirectly related to the concerns posed by global climate change. At the NIH, we have recently established an agency-wide planning group to assess the research questions in health and medicine that climate change presents, to link this agenda to parallel activities across other agencies of the U.S. Government (USG), and to advance a NIH research agenda in this area.}, }
@article {pmid19768168, year = {2009}, author = {Luber, G and Prudent, N}, title = {Climate change and human health.}, journal = {Transactions of the American Clinical and Climatological Association}, volume = {120}, number = {}, pages = {113-117}, pmid = {19768168}, issn = {0065-7778}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; *Climate Change ; *Global Health ; Health Promotion ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Public Health ; Stress, Physiological ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change science points to an increase in sea surface temperature, increases in the severity of extreme weather events, declining air quality, and destabilizing natural systems due to increases in greenhouse gas emissions. The direct and indirect health results of such a global imbalance include excessive heat-related illnesses, vector- and waterborne diseases, increased exposure to environmental toxins, exacerbation of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases due to declining air quality, and mental health stress among others. Vulnerability to these health effects will increase as elderly and urban populations increase and are less able to adapt to climate change. In addition, the level of vulnerability to certain health impacts will vary by location. As a result, strategies to address climate change must include health as a strategic component on a regional level. The co-benefits of improving health while addressing climate change will improve public health infrastructure today, while mitigating the negative consequences of a changing climate for future generations.}, }
@article {pmid19767324, year = {2009}, author = {Damgaard, A and Larsen, AW and Christensen, TH}, title = {Recycling of metals: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {773-780}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09346838}, pmid = {19767324}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Aluminum ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; *Metals ; Refuse Disposal/methods ; Steel ; }, abstract = {Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to recycling of metals in post-consumer waste are assessed from a waste management perspective; here the material recovery facility (MRF), for the sorting of the recovered metal. The GHG accounting includes indirect upstream emissions, direct activities at the MRF as well as indirect downstream activities in terms of reprocessing of the metal scrap and savings in terms of avoided production of virgin metal. The global warming factor (GWF) shows that upstream activities and the MRF causes negligible GHG emissions (12.8 to 52.6 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) recovered metal) compared to the reprocessing of the metal itself (360-1260 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of recovered aluminium and 400- 1020 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(- 1) of recovered steel).The reprocessing is however counterbalanced by large savings of avoided virgin production of steel and aluminium. The net downstream savings were found to be 5040-19 340 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of treated aluminium and 560-2360 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) of treated steel. Due to the huge differences in reported data it is hard to compare general data on the recovery of metal scrap as they are very dependent on the technology and data choices. Furthermore, the energy used in both the recovery process as well as the avoided primary production is crucial. The range of avoided impact shows that recovery of metals will always be beneficial over primary production, due to the high energy savings, and that the GHG emissions associated with the sorting of metals are negligible.}, }
@article {pmid19766873, year = {2009}, author = {Goklany, IM}, title = {Climate change is not the biggest global health threat.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {374}, number = {9694}, pages = {973-974}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61655-X}, pmid = {19766873}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Cost of Illness ; Disabled Persons/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Humans ; Mortality/*trends ; *Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid19766868, year = {2009}, author = {The Lancet, }, title = {Sexual and reproductive health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {374}, number = {9694}, pages = {949}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61643-3}, pmid = {19766868}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Family Planning Services/*organization &amp; administration ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Humans ; National Health Programs/organization &amp; administration ; Organizations/organization &amp; administration ; Population Growth ; Reproductive Medicine/*organization &amp; administration ; Reproductive Rights ; *Women's Health ; }, }
@article {pmid19762077, year = {2009}, author = {Jay, M and Marmot, MG}, title = {Health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {374}, number = {9694}, pages = {961-962}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61603-2}, pmid = {19762077}, issn = {1474-547X}, support = {G0100222/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; G19/35/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; G8802774/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; RG/07/008/23674/BHF_/British Heart Foundation/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Developed Countries/economics ; *Developing Countries/economics ; Forecasting ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Politics ; Poverty ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid19762076, year = {2009}, author = {Lim, V and Stubbs, JW and Nahar, N and Amarasena, N and Chaudry, ZU and Weng, SCK and Mayosi, B and van der Spuy, Z and Liang, R and Lai, KN and Metz, G and Fitzgerald, GWN and Williams, B and Douglas, N and Donohoe, J and Darnchaivijir, S and Coker, P and Gilmore, I}, title = {Politicians must heed health effects of climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {374}, number = {9694}, pages = {973}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61641-X}, pmid = {19762076}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Forecasting ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Leadership ; *Physician's Role ; *Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid19759910, year = {2009}, author = {Danovaro, R and Fonda Umani, S and Pusceddu, A}, title = {Climate change and the potential spreading of marine mucilage and microbial pathogens in the Mediterranean Sea.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {e7006}, pmid = {19759910}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Colloids/chemistry ; Environment ; Gels/*chemistry ; In Situ Hybridization, Fluorescence ; *Marine Biology ; Mediterranean Sea ; Seawater/microbiology/virology ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Water/chemistry ; *Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Marine snow (small amorphous aggregates with colloidal properties) is present in all oceans of the world. Surface water warming and the consequent increase of water column stability can favour the coalescence of marine snow into marine mucilage, large marine aggregates representing an ephemeral and extreme habitat. Marine mucilage characterize aquatic systems with altered environmental conditions.<br><br>We investigated, by means of molecular techniques, viruses and prokaryotes within the mucilage and in surrounding seawater to examine the potential of mucilage to host new microbial diversity and/or spread marine diseases. We found that marine mucilage contained a large and unexpectedly exclusive microbial biodiversity and hosted pathogenic species that were absent in surrounding seawater. We also investigated the relationship between climate change and the frequency of mucilage in the Mediterranean Sea over the last 200 years and found that the number of mucilage outbreaks increased almost exponentially in the last 20 years. The increasing frequency of mucilage outbreaks is closely associated with the temperature anomalies.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the spreading of mucilage in the Mediterranean Sea is linked to climate-driven sea surface warming. The mucilage can act as a controlling factor of microbial diversity across wide oceanic regions and could have the potential to act as a carrier of specific microorganisms, thereby increasing the spread of pathogenic bacteria.}, }
@article {pmid19759458, year = {2009}, author = {Kleidorfer, M and Möderl, M and Sitzenfrei, R and Urich, C and Rauch, W}, title = {A case independent approach on the impact of climate change effects on combined sewer system performance.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {60}, number = {6}, pages = {1555-1564}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2009.520}, pmid = {19759458}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Cities ; *Climate ; Rain ; *Sewage ; Uncertainty ; Urban Renewal ; }, abstract = {Design and construction of urban drainage systems has to be done in a predictive way, as the average lifespan of such investments is several decades. The design engineer has to predict many influencing factors and scenarios for future development of a system (e.g. change in land use, population, water consumption and infiltration measures). Furthermore, climate change can cause increased rain intensities which leads to an additional impact on drainage systems. In this paper we compare the behaviour of different performance indicators of combined sewer systems when taking into account long-term environmental change effects (change in rainfall characteristics, change in impervious area and change in dry weather flow). By using 250 virtual case studies this approach is--in principle--a Monte Carlo Simulation in which not only parameter values are varied but the entire system structure and layout is changed in each run. Hence, results are more general and case-independent. For example the consideration of an increase of rainfall intensities by 20% has the same effect as an increase of impervious area of +40%. Such an increase of rainfall intensities could be compensated by infiltration measures in current systems which lead to a reduction of impervious area by 30%.}, }
@article {pmid19759080, year = {2009}, author = {Coombes, R}, title = {Climate Change. Population: the forgotten priority.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {339}, number = {}, pages = {b3750}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.b3750}, pmid = {19759080}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Contraception ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Maternal Health Services/supply &amp; distribution ; *Population Growth ; Reproductive Health Services/*supply &amp; distribution ; }, }
@article {pmid19756007, year = {2009}, author = {Six, DL}, title = {Climate change and mutualism.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {7}, number = {10}, pages = {686}, doi = {10.1038/nrmicro2232}, pmid = {19756007}, issn = {1740-1534}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; *Symbiosis ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid19755701, year = {2009}, author = {Wiley, LF and Gostin, LO}, title = {The international response to climate change: an agenda for global health.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {302}, number = {11}, pages = {1218-1220}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2009.1381}, pmid = {19755701}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Congresses as Topic ; Developing Countries ; Disasters ; Environmental Health ; Environmental Pollution ; Financing, Organized ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Internationality ; Policy Making ; *United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid19755553, year = {2009}, author = {Lim, V and Stubbs, JW and Nahar, N and Amarasena, N and Chaudry, ZU and Weng, SC and Mayosi, B and van der Spuy, Z and Liang, R and Lai, KN and Metz, G and Fitzgerald, GW and Williams, B and Douglas, N and Donohoe, J and Darnchaivijir, S and Coker, P and Gilmore, I}, title = {Politicians must heed health effects of climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {339}, number = {}, pages = {b3672}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.b3672}, pmid = {19755553}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid19755552, year = {2009}, author = {Jay, M and Marmot, MG}, title = {Health and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {339}, number = {}, pages = {b3669}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.b3669}, pmid = {19755552}, issn = {1756-1833}, support = {G0100222/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; G19/35/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; G8802774/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; RG/07/008/23674/BHF_/British Heart Foundation/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid19606136, year = {2009}, author = {Zahn, R}, title = {Climate change: Beyond the CO(2) connection.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {460}, number = {7253}, pages = {335-336}, pmid = {19606136}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Atlantic Ocean ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate ; Geologic Sediments/microbiology ; History, Ancient ; Ice Cover ; Indian Ocean ; Seawater/chemistry ; *Temperature ; *Water Movements ; }, }
@article {pmid19753294, year = {2009}, author = {Ford, LB}, title = {Climate change and health in Canada.}, journal = {McGill journal of medicine : MJM : an international forum for the advancement of medical sciences by students}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {78-84}, pmid = {19753294}, issn = {1201-026X}, }
@article {pmid19753291, year = {2009}, author = {Ebi, KL}, title = {Beyond the news: health risks of climate change.}, journal = {McGill journal of medicine : MJM : an international forum for the advancement of medical sciences by students}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {65-69}, pmid = {19753291}, issn = {1201-026X}, }
@article {pmid19752142, year = {2009}, author = {Gough, M}, title = {Climate change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {181}, number = {6-7}, pages = {399}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-2001}, pmid = {19752142}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {Dissent and Disputes ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Science ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid19750591, year = {2009}, author = {}, title = {Preface. Effects of Climate Change on Plants: Implications for Agriculture.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {60}, number = {10}, pages = {2773}, pmid = {19750591}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Biotechnology ; *Climate ; *Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid19748957, year = {2009}, author = {Møller, J and Boldrin, A and Christensen, TH}, title = {Anaerobic digestion and digestate use: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contribution.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {813-824}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09344876}, pmid = {19748957}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Bacteria, Anaerobic/metabolism ; *Biodegradation, Environmental ; Biofuels ; Bioreactors ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Methane/analysis ; Refuse Disposal/*methods ; }, abstract = {Anaerobic digestion (AD) of source-separated municipal solid waste (MSW) and use of the digestate is presented from a global warming (GW) point of view by providing ranges of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are useful for calculation of global warming factors (GWFs), i.e. the contribution to GW measured in CO(2)-equivalents per tonne of wet waste. The GHG accounting was done by distinguishing between direct contributions at the AD facility and indirect upstream or downstream contributions. GHG accounting for a generic AD facility with either biogas utilization at the facility or upgrading of the gas for vehicle fuel resulted in a GWF from -375 (a saving) to 111 (a load) kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) wet waste. In both cases the digestate was used for fertilizer substitution. This large range was a result of the variation found for a number of key parameters: energy substitution by biogas, N(2)O-emission from digestate in soil, fugitive emission of CH(4), unburned CH(4), carbon bound in soil and fertilizer substitution. GWF for a specific type of AD facility was in the range -95 to -4 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) wet waste. The ranges of uncertainty, especially of fugitive losses of CH(4) and carbon sequestration highly influenced the result. In comparison with the few published GWFs for AD, the range of our data was much larger demonstrating the need to use a consistent and robust approach to GHG accounting and simultaneously accept that some key parameters are highly uncertain.}, }
@article {pmid19748950, year = {2009}, author = {Boldrin, A and Andersen, JK and Møller, J and Christensen, TH and Favoino, E}, title = {Composting and compost utilization: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {800-812}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09345275}, pmid = {19748950}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Refuse Disposal/*methods ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to composting of organic waste and the use of compost were assessed from a waste management perspective. The GHG accounting for composting includes use of electricity and fuels, emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from the composting process, and savings obtained by the use of the compost. The GHG account depends on waste type and composition (kitchen organics, garden waste), technology type (open systems, closed systems, home composting), the efficiency of off-gas cleaning at enclosed composting systems, and the use of the compost. The latter is an important issue and is related to the long-term binding of carbon in the soil, to related effects in terms of soil improvement and to what the compost substitutes; this could be fertilizer and peat for soil improvement or for growth media production. The overall global warming factor (GWF) for composting therefore varies between significant savings (-900 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) wet waste (ww)) and a net load (300 kg CO(2)-equivalents tonne(-1) ww). The major savings are obtained by use of compost as a substitute for peat in the production of growth media. However, it may be difficult for a specific composting plant to document how the compost is used and what it actually substitutes for. Two cases representing various technologies were assessed showing how GHG accounting can be done when specific information and data are available.}, }
@article {pmid19748948, year = {2009}, author = {Scheutz, C and Kjeldsen, P and Gentil, E}, title = {Greenhouse gases, radiative forcing, global warming potential and waste management--an introduction.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {716-723}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09345599}, pmid = {19748948}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/chemistry ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Sunlight ; Waste Management/*methods ; }, abstract = {Management of post-consumer solid waste contributes to emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) representing about 3% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Most GHG reporting initiatives around the world utilize two metrics proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): radiative forcing (RF) and global warming potential (GWP). This paper provides a general introduction of the factors that define a GHG and explains the scientific background for estimating RF and GWP, thereby exposing the lay reader to a brief overview of the methods for calculating the effects of GHGs on climate change. An objective of this paper is to increase awareness that the GWP of GHGs has been re-adjusted as the concentration and relative proportion of these GHGs has changed with time (e.g., the GWP of methane has changed from 21 to 25 CO(2)-eq). Improved understanding of the indirect effects of GHGs has also led to a modification in the methodology for calculating GWP. Following a presentation of theory behind GHG, RF and GWP concepts, the paper briefly describes the most important GHG sources and sinks in the context of the waste management industry. The paper serves as a primer for more detailed research publications presented in this special issue of Waste Management &amp; Research providing a technology-based assessment of quantitative GHG emissions from different waste management technologies.}, }
@article {pmid19748943, year = {2009}, author = {Astrup, T and Fruergaard, T and Christensen, TH}, title = {Recycling of plastic: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {763-772}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09345868}, pmid = {19748943}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; *Plastics ; Refuse Disposal/methods ; }, abstract = {Major greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to plastic waste recycling were evaluated with respect to three management alternatives: recycling of clean, single-type plastic, recycling of mixed/contaminated plastic, and use of plastic waste as fuel in industrial processes. Source-separated plastic waste was received at a material recovery facility (MRF) and processed for granulation and subsequent downstream use. In the three alternatives, plastic was assumed to be substituting virgin plastic in new products, wood in low-strength products (outdoor furniture, fences, etc.), and coal or fuel oil in the case of energy utilization. GHG accounting was organized in terms of indirect upstream emissions (e.g. provision of energy, fuels, and materials), direct emissions at the MRF (e.g. fuel combustion), and indirect downstream emissions (e.g. avoided emissions from production of virgin plastic, wood, or coal/oil). Combined, upstream and direct emissions were estimated to be roughly between 5 and 600 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) of plastic waste depending on treatment at the MRF and CO(2) emissions from electricity production. Potential downstream savings arising from substitution of virgin plastic, wood, and energy fuels were estimated to be around 60- 1600 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) of plastic waste depending on substitution ratios and CO(2) emissions from electricity production. Based on the reviewed data, it was concluded that substitution of virgin plastic should be preferred. If this is not viable due to a mixture of different plastic types and/or contamination, the plastic should be used for energy utilization. Recycling of plastic waste for substitution of other materials such as wood provided no savings with respect to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid19748939, year = {2009}, author = {Astrup, T and Møller, J and Fruergaard, T}, title = {Incineration and co-combustion of waste: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {789-799}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09343774}, pmid = {19748939}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; Incineration/*methods ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Important greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to waste incineration and co-combustion of waste were identified and considered relative to critical aspects such as: the contents of biogenic and fossil carbon, N(2)O emissions, fuel and material consumptions at the plants, energy recovery, and solid residues generated. GHG contributions were categorized with respect to direct emissions from the combustion plant as well as indirect upstream contributions (e.g. provision of fuels and materials) and indirect downstream contributions (e.g. substitution of electricity and heat produced elsewhere). GHG accounting was done per tonne of waste received at the plant. The content of fossil carbon in the input waste, for example as plastic, was found to be critical for the overall level of the GHG emissions, but also the energy conversion efficiencies were essential. The emission factors for electricity provision (also substituted electricity) affected the indirect downstream emissions with a factor of 3-9 depending on the type of electricity generation assumed. Provision of auxiliary fuels, materials and resources corresponded to up to 40% of the direct emission from the plants (which were 347-371 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) of waste for incineration and 735-803 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) of waste for co-combustion). Indirect downstream savings were within the range of -480 to -1373 kg CO(2)eq. tonne(-1) of waste for incineration and within -181 to -2607 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) of waste for co-combustion. N(2)O emissions and residue management did not appear to play significant roles.}, }
@article {pmid19746746, year = {2009}, author = {Grossmann, WD and Steininger, K and Grossmann, I and Magaard, L}, title = {Indicators on economic risk from global climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {16}, pages = {6421-6426}, doi = {10.1021/es8035797}, pmid = {19746746}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis/economics ; Coal/economics ; *Economics ; Electricity ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Power Plants/economics ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change mitigation requires a rapid decrease of global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from their present value of 8.4 Gt/C/year to, as of current knowledge, approximately 1 GtC/year by the end of the century. The necessary decrease of GHG emissions will have large impacts on existing and new investments with long lifetimes, such coal-fired power plants or buildings. Strategic decision making for major investments can be facilitated by indicators that express the likelihood of costly retrofitting or shut-down of carbon intensive equipment over time. We provide a set of simple indicators that support assessment and decision making in this field. Given a certain emissions target, carbon allowance prices in a cap-and-trade plan will depend on the development of the global economy and the degree to which the target is approached on the global and national levels. The indicators measure the degree to which a given emissions target is approached nationally and assess risks for long-lived investments subject to a range of emissions targets. A comparative case study on existing coal-fired power plants with planned plants and utility-scale photovoltaic power-plants confirms that high risk for coal-fired power plants is emerging. New legislation further confirms this result.}, }
@article {pmid19745143, year = {2009}, author = {Post, E and Forchhammer, MC and Bret-Harte, MS and Callaghan, TV and Christensen, TR and Elberling, B and Fox, AD and Gilg, O and Hik, DS and Høye, TT and Ims, RA and Jeppesen, E and Klein, DR and Madsen, J and McGuire, AD and Rysgaard, S and Schindler, DE and Stirling, I and Tamstorf, MP and Tyler, NJ and van der Wal, R and Welker, J and Wookey, PA and Schmidt, NM and Aastrup, P}, title = {Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {325}, number = {5946}, pages = {1355-1358}, doi = {10.1126/science.1173113}, pmid = {19745143}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climatic Processes ; *Cold Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Effect ; Ice Cover ; *Plant Development ; Population Dynamics ; Research ; }, abstract = {At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, we take stock of the ecological consequences of recent climate change in the Arctic, focusing on effects at population, community, and ecosystem scales. Despite the buffering effect of landscape heterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity. We highlight areas of ecological research that deserve priority as the Arctic continues to warm.}, }
@article {pmid19739528, year = {2009}, author = {Van Bortel, W and Versteirt, V and Van Gompel, F and Coosemans, M}, title = {[Climate change and emerging diseases: a complex interplay of factors].}, journal = {Journal de pharmacie de Belgique}, volume = {}, number = {2}, pages = {48-53}, pmid = {19739528}, issn = {0047-2166}, mesh = {Alphavirus Infections/epidemiology/*transmission/virology ; Animals ; Chikungunya virus ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Lyme Disease/epidemiology/microbiology/*transmission ; Malaria/epidemiology/parasitology/*transmission ; }, }
@article {pmid19731682, year = {2009}, author = {Lamon, L and Von Waldow, H and Macleod, M and Scheringer, M and Marcomini, A and Hungerbühler, K}, title = {Modeling the global levels and distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls in air under a climate change scenario.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {15}, pages = {5818-5824}, doi = {10.1021/es900438j}, pmid = {19731682}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Atmosphere/analysis ; Climate ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Polychlorinated Biphenyls/*analysis ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; Volatilization ; }, abstract = {We used the multimedia chemical fate model BETR Global to evaluate changes in the global distribution of two polychlorinated biphenyls, PCB 28 and PCB 153, under the influence of climate change. This was achieved by defining two climate scenarios based on results from a general circulation model, one scenario representing the last twenty years of the 20th century (20CE scenario) and another representing the global climate under the assumption of strong future greenhouse gas emissions (A2 scenario). The two climate scenarios are defined by four groups of environmental parameters: (1) temperature in the planetary boundary layer and the free atmosphere, (2) wind speeds and directions in the atmosphere, (3) current velocities and directions in the surface mixed layer of the oceans, and (4) rate and geographical pattern of precipitation. As a fifth parameter in our scenarios, we considerthe effect of temperature on primary volatilization emissions of PCBs. Comparison of dynamic model results using environmental parameters from the 20CE scenario against historical long-term monitoring data of concentrations of PCB 28 and PCB 153 in air from 16 different sites shows satisfactory agreement between modeled and measured PCBs concentrations. The 20CE scenario and A2 scenario were compared using steady-state calculations and assuming the same source characteristics of PCBs. Temperature differences between the two scenarios is the dominant factor that determines the difference in PCB concentrations in air. The higher temperatures in the A2 scenario drive increased primary and secondary volatilization emissions of PCBs, and enhance transport from temperate regions to the Arctic. The largest relative increase in concentrations of both PCB congeners in air under the A2 scenario occurs in the high Arctic and the remote Pacific Ocean. Generally, higher wind speeds under the A2 scenario result in more efficient intercontinental transport of PCB 28 and PCB 153 compared to the 20CE scenario. Our modeling indicates that in a future impacted by climate change, we can expectincreased volatilization emissions and increased mobility of persistent organic pollutants with properties similar to those of PCBs.}, }
@article {pmid19731681, year = {2009}, author = {Carmichael, GR and Adhikary, B and Kulkarni, S and D'Allura, A and Tang, Y and Streets, D and Zhang, Q and Bond, TC and Ramanathan, V and Jamroensan, A and Marrapu, P}, title = {Asian aerosols: current and year 2030 distributions and implications to human health and regional climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {15}, pages = {5811-5817}, doi = {10.1021/es8036803}, pmid = {19731681}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Aerosols/*toxicity ; Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Asia ; Climate ; Environment ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Environmental Pollution ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Sulfur Dioxide/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Aerosol distributions in Asia calculated over a 4-year period and constrained by satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are presented. Vast regions in Asia that include > 80% of the population have PM2.5 concentrations that exceed on an annual basis the WHO guideline of 10 microg/m3, often by factors of 2 to 4. These high aerosol loadings also have important radiative effects, causing a significant dimming at the surface, and mask approximately 45% of the warming by greenhouse gases. Black carbon (BC) concentrations are high throughout Asia, representing 5-10% of the total AOD, and contributing significantly to atmospheric warming (its warming potential is approximately 55% of that due to CO2). PM levels and AODs in year 2030, estimated based on simulations that consider future changes in emissions, are used to explore opportunities for win-win strategies built upon addressing air quality and climate change together. It is found that in 2030 the PM2.5 levels in significant parts of Asia will increase and exacerbate health impacts; but the aerosols will have a larger masking effect on radiative forcing, due to a decrease in BC and an increase in SO2 emissions.}, }
@article {pmid19728499, year = {2009}, author = {Montgomery, H}, title = {Climate change: how grave the threat?.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {309-310}, pmid = {19728499}, issn = {1470-2118}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Environmental Health/*trends ; Environmental Illness/*epidemiology ; Global Health ; Humans ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {There is now no dispute about climate change: it is happening, and human activity is driving it. Each day, the threat this poses becomes clearer--threatening our civilisation and also the survival of our species. The immediacy of this threat is also now recognised: it is not something 'for the next millenium' but for our lifetimes and those of our children. Without urgent action, the future is grim. But we can all respond to make the difference. And the time to do so is now.}, }
@article {pmid19728418, year = {2009}, author = {Hodge, JM}, title = {Colonial foresters versus agriculturalists: the debate over climate change and cocoa production in the Gold Coast.}, journal = {Agricultural history}, volume = {83}, number = {2}, pages = {201-220}, doi = {10.3098/ah.2009.83.2.201}, pmid = {19728418}, issn = {0002-1482}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics/education/history ; *Cacao/economics/history ; *Climate ; Colonialism/history ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/history ; *Desiccation ; Economics/history ; *Food Supply/economics/history ; *Forestry/economics/education/history ; Ghana/ethnology ; History, 20th Century ; Local Government ; *Plant Diseases/economics/history ; }, abstract = {This article draws attention to the unfolding debate concerning forest cover loss, climatic change, and declining cocoa production in the Gold Coast (colonial Ghana) during the early twentieth century. It argues that, although desiccationist theory was prevalent, its acceptance among colonial authorities in the Gold Coast was far from hegemonic. There were important dissenting colonial voices, particularly among agriculturalists, who argued that declining cocoa yields were due to plant diseases, most notably cocoa swollen shoot disease. It was based on the latter's non-environmental model of disease transmission, rather than the premises of desiccation science, that the government's postwar "cutting out campaign" of cocoa was predicated. Nevertheless, the foresters' correlation of the deterioration of cocoa areas with fears of desiccation was not without its effects on state practice, providing the rationale for an accelerated program of forest reservations in the 1930s.}, }
@article {pmid19727390, year = {2009}, author = {Adler, PB and Leiker, J and Levine, JM}, title = {Direct and indirect effects of climate change on a prairie plant community.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {e6887}, pmid = {19727390}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Biomass ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Environmental Monitoring ; Kansas ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plants ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change directly affects species by altering their physical environment and indirectly affects species by altering interspecific interactions such as predation and competition. Recent studies have shown that the indirect effects of climate change may amplify or counteract the direct effects. However, little is known about the the relative strength of direct and indirect effects or their potential to impact population persistence.<br><br>We studied the effects of altered precipitation and interspecific interactions on the low-density tiller growth rates and biomass production of three perennial grass species in a Kansas, USA mixed prairie. We transplanted plugs of each species into local neighborhoods of heterospecific competitors and then exposed the plugs to a factorial manipulation of growing season precipitation and neighbor removal. Precipitation treatments had significant direct effects on two of the three species. Interspecific competition also had strong effects, reducing low-density tiller growth rates and aboveground biomass production for all three species. In fact, in the presence of competitors, (log) tiller growth rates were close to or below zero for all three species. However, we found no convincing evidence that per capita competitive effects changed with precipitation, as shown by a lack of significant precipitation x competition interactions.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found little evidence that altered precipitation will influence per capita competitive effects. However, based on species' very low growth rates in the presence of competitors in some precipitation treatments, interspecific interactions appear strong enough to affect the balance between population persistence and local extinction. Therefore, ecological forecasting models should include the effect of interspecific interactions on population growth, even if such interaction coefficients are treated as constants.}, }
@article {pmid19727177, year = {2009}, author = {Nayar, A}, title = {Cost of climate change underestimated.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {461}, number = {7260}, pages = {24}, doi = {10.1038/461024a}, pmid = {19727177}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Costs and Cost Analysis ; Ecosystem ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Water Supply/economics ; }, }
@article {pmid19722109, year = {2010}, author = {Salewski, V and Hochachka, WM and Fiedler, W}, title = {Global warming and Bergmann's rule: do central European passerines adjust their body size to rising temperatures?.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {162}, number = {1}, pages = {247-260}, pmid = {19722109}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Body Size ; Europe ; Feathers/anatomy &amp; histology ; *Global Warming ; Passeriformes/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Recent climate change has caused diverse ecological responses in plants and animals. However, relatively little is known about homeothermic animals' ability to adapt to changing temperature regimes through changes in body size, in accordance with Bergmann's rule. We used fluctuations in mean annual temperatures in south-west Germany since 1972 in order to look for direct links between temperature and two aspects of body size: body mass and flight feather length. Data from regionally born juveniles of 12 passerine bird species were analysed. Body mass and feather length varied significantly among years in eight and nine species, respectively. Typically the inter-annual changes in morphology were complexly non-linear, as was inter-annual variation in temperature. For six (body mass) and seven species (feather length), these inter-annual fluctuations were significantly correlated with temperature fluctuations. However, negative correlations consistent with Bergmann's rule were only found for five species, either for body mass or feather length. In several of the species for which body mass and feather length was significantly associated with temperature, morphological responses were better predicted by temperature data that were smoothed across multiple years than by the actual mean breeding season temperatures of the year of birth. This was found in five species for body mass and three species for feather length. These results suggest that changes in body size may not merely be the result of phenotypic plasticity but may hint at genetically based microevolutionary adaptations.}, }
@article {pmid19721843, year = {2009}, author = {Young, SN}, title = {Rethinking scientific meetings: an imperative in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of psychiatry &amp; neuroscience : JPN}, volume = {34}, number = {5}, pages = {341-342}, pmid = {19721843}, issn = {1488-2434}, mesh = {Aircraft ; *Congresses as Topic/trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Neurosciences/ethics/trends ; Psychiatry/ethics/trends ; Telecommunications ; }, }
@article {pmid19721765, year = {2009}, author = {Himanen, SJ and Nerg, AM and Holopainen, JK}, title = {Degree of herbivore feeding damage as an important contributor to multitrophic plant-parasitoid signaling under climate change.}, journal = {Plant signaling &amp; behavior}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {249-251}, pmid = {19721765}, issn = {1559-2324}, abstract = {Biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) serve as signals mediating information between plants and their higher trophic level beneficials, such as parasitoids and predators of herbivores. We recently demonstrated with oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) plants, herbivorous diamond-back moth (Plutella xylostella L. (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae)) larvae and Cotesia vestalis (Haliday) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) parasitoids that atmospheric pollution, i.e., elevated ozone (O3), can disturb attraction of natural enemies by plant-emitted host-induced volatile cues. Additionally, we found that the degree of herbivore feeding damage is an important contributor to this O3 interference. Low feeding damage in herbivore-resistant plants was sufficient to attract C. vestalis females to host-damaged plants under ambient air, but this tritrophic signaling turned non-functional in the combination of low feeding damage and high O3 concentration. Here we present some additional data of how climate change factors may modify feeding patterns and growth of herbivores. We further discuss how the degree of herbivore feeding damage and the tritrophic signaling interaction relaying on the herbivore-induced VOCs from attacked plants might change through direct and indirect effects of increased levels of carbon dioxide, temperature and O3.}, }
@article {pmid19720713, year = {2009}, author = {Lielmanis, A}, title = {Doctors and climate change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {181}, number = {5}, pages = {290}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.109-2008}, pmid = {19720713}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {*Awards and Prizes ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Physicians ; Science ; }, }
@article {pmid19719518, year = {2009}, author = {Helle, S and Helama, S and Lertola, K}, title = {Evolutionary ecology of human birth sex ratio under the compound influence of climate change, famine, economic crises and wars.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {78}, number = {6}, pages = {1226-1233}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01598.x}, pmid = {19719518}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Finland ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Male ; Population Dynamics ; Selection, Genetic ; *Sex Ratio ; *Starvation ; *Warfare ; }, abstract = {1. Human sex ratio at birth at the population level has been suggested to vary according to exogenous stressors such as wars, ambient temperature, ecological disasters and economic crises, but their relative effects on birth sex ratio have not been investigated. It also remains unclear whether such associations represent environmental forcing or adaptive parental response, as parents may produce the sex that has better survival prospects and fitness in a given environmental challenge. 2. We examined the simultaneous role of wars, famine, ambient temperature, economic development and total mortality rate on the annual variation of offspring birth sex ratio and whether this variation, in turn, was related to sex-specific infant mortality rate in Finland during 1865-2003. 3. Our findings show an increased excess of male births during the World War II and during warm years. Instead, economic development, famine, short-lasting Finnish civil war and total mortality rate were not related to birth sex ratio. Moreover, we found no association between annual birth sex ratio and sex-biased infant mortality rate among the concurrent cohort. 4. Our results propose that some exogenous challenges like ambient temperature and war can skew human birth sex ratio and that these deviations likely represent environmental forcing rather than adaptive parental response to such challenges.}, }
@article {pmid19717432, year = {2009}, author = {Schlenker, W and Roberts, MJ}, title = {Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {37}, pages = {15594-15598}, pmid = {19717432}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Databases, Factual ; Gossypium/growth &amp; development ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Glycine max/growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; United States ; Weather ; Zea mays/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The United States produces 41% of the world's corn and 38% of the world's soybeans. These crops comprise two of the four largest sources of caloric energy produced and are thus critical for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level yields for these two crops, plus cotton (a warmer-weather crop), with a new fine-scale weather dataset that incorporates the whole distribution of temperatures within each day and across all days in the growing season. We find that yields increase with temperature up to 29 degrees C for corn, 30 degrees C for soybeans, and 32 degrees C for cotton but that temperatures above these thresholds are very harmful. The slope of the decline above the optimum is significantly steeper than the incline below it. The same nonlinear and asymmetric relationship is found when we isolate either time-series or cross-sectional variations in temperatures and yields. This suggests limited historical adaptation of seed varieties or management practices to warmer temperatures because the cross-section includes farmers' adaptations to warmer climates and the time-series does not. Holding current growing regions fixed, area-weighted average yields are predicted to decrease by 30-46% before the end of the century under the slowest (B1) warming scenario and decrease by 63-82% under the most rapid warming scenario (A1FI) under the Hadley III model.}, }
@article {pmid19714961, year = {2009}, author = {Prowse, TD and Furgal, C and Wrona, FJ and Reist, JD}, title = {Implications of climate change for northern Canada: freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {38}, number = {5}, pages = {282-289}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-38.5.282}, pmid = {19714961}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Animals, Wild/*growth &amp; development ; Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Diet ; *Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; Humans ; Ice Cover ; Indians, North American ; Northern Territory ; Population Dynamics ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Climate variability and change is projected to have significant effects on the physical, chemical, and biological components of northern Canadian marine, terrestrial, and freshwater systems. As the climate continues to change, there will be consequences for biodiversity shifts and for the ranges and distribution of many species with resulting effects on availability, accessibility, and quality of resources upon which human populations rely. This will have implications for the protection and management of wildlife, fish, and fisheries resources; protected areas; and forests. The northward migration of species and the disruption and competition from invading species are already occurring and will continue to affect marine, terrestrial, and freshwater communities. Shifting environmental conditions will likely introduce new animal-transmitted diseases and redistribute some existing diseases, affecting key economic resources and some human populations. Stress on populations of iconic wildlife species, such as the polar bear, ringed seals, and whales, will continue as a result of changes in critical sea-ice habitat interactions. Where these stresses affect economically and culturally important species, they will have significant effects on people and regional economies. Further integrated, field-based monitoring and research programs, and the development of predictive models are required to allow for more detailed and comprehensive projections of change to be made, and to inform the development and implementation of appropriate adaptation, wildlife, and habitat conservation and protection strategies.}, }
@article {pmid19714960, year = {2009}, author = {Prowse, TD and Furgal, C and Chouinard, R and Melling, H and Milburn, D and Smith, SL}, title = {Implications of climate change for economic development in northern Canada: energy, resource, and transportation sectors.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {38}, number = {5}, pages = {272-281}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-38.5.272}, pmid = {19714960}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Extraction and Processing Industry ; Fuel Oils ; Gasoline ; *Ice Cover ; Mining ; Northern Territory ; Transportation/*methods ; }, abstract = {Northern Canada is projected to experience major changes to its climate, which will have major implications for northern economic development. Some of these, such as mining and oil and gas development, have experienced rapid expansion in recent years and are likely to expand further, partly as the result of indirect effects of changing climate. This article reviews how a changing climate will affect several economic sectors including the hydroelectric, oil and gas, and mining industries as well as infrastructure and transportation, both marine and freshwater. Of particular importance to all sectors are projected changes in the cryosphere, which will create both problems and opportunities. Potential adaptation strategies that could be used to minimize the negative impacts created by a climate change are also reviewed.}, }
@article {pmid19714959, year = {2009}, author = {Prowse, TD and Furgal, C and Melling, H and Smith, SL}, title = {Implications of climate change for northern Canada: the physical environment.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {38}, number = {5}, pages = {266-271}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-38.5.266}, pmid = {19714959}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Fresh Water ; *Ice Cover ; Northern Territory ; Snow ; }, abstract = {The physical environment of the Canadian North is particularly sensitive to changes in climate because of a large concentration of cryospheric elements including both seasonal and multiyear forms of freshwater and sea ice, permafrost, snow, glaciers, and small ice caps. Because the cryosphere responds directly to changes in air temperature and precipitation, it is a primary indicator of the effects of climate variability and change. This article reviews the major changes that have occurred in the recent historical record of these cryospheric components at high latitudes in Canada. Some changes have been less pronounced in the Canadian North than elsewhere, such as changes in sea-ice coverage, whereas others have been potentially more significant, such as ablation of the extensive alpine and high-Arctic small glaciers and ice caps. Projections of future changes are also reviewed for each cryospheric component. Discussion about two other physical components of the North intrinsically linked to the cryosphere is also included, specifically: i) freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean via major river networks that are fed primarily by various forms of snow and ice, and ii) the related rise in sea level, which is strongly influenced by ablation of the cryosphere, and coastal stability, which also depends on the thermal integrity of coastal permafrost.}, }
@article {pmid19713498, year = {2009}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Joining forces to pump up a variable sun's climate effects.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {325}, number = {5944}, pages = {1058-1059}, doi = {10.1126/science.325_1058b}, pmid = {19713498}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19710108, year = {2009}, author = {Larsen, AW and Merrild, H and Christensen, TH}, title = {Recycling of glass: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contributions.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {754-762}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X09342148}, pmid = {19710108}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Glass ; *Global Warming ; Refuse Disposal/methods ; }, abstract = {Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to recycling of glass waste were assessed from a waste management perspective. Focus was on the material recovery facility (MRF) where the initial sorting of glass waste takes place. The MRF delivers products like cullet and whole bottles to other industries. Two possible uses of reprocessed glass waste were considered: (i) remelting of cullet added to glass production; and (ii) re-use of whole bottles. The GHG emission accounting included indirect upstream emissions (provision of energy, fuels and auxiliaries), direct activities at the MRF and bottle-wash facility (combustion of fuels) as well as indirect downstream activities in terms of using the recovered glass waste in other industries and, thereby, avoiding emissions from conventional production. The GHG accounting was presented as aggregated global warming factors (GWFs) for the direct and indirect upstream and downstream processes, respectively. The range of GWFs was estimated to 0-70 kg CO(2)eq. tonne(-1) of glass waste for the upstream activities and the direct emissions from the waste management system. The GWF for the downstream effect showed some significant variation between the two cases. It was estimated to approximately -500 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) of glass waste for the remelting technology and -1500 to -600 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(-1) of glass waste for bottle re-use. Including the downstream process, large savings of GHG emissions can be attributed to the waste management system. The results showed that, in GHG emission accounting, attention should be drawn to thorough analysis of energy sources, especially electricity, and the downstream savings caused by material substitution.}, }
@article {pmid19706489, year = {2009}, author = {Zickfeld, K and Eby, M and Matthews, HD and Weaver, AJ}, title = {Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {38}, pages = {16129-16134}, pmid = {19706489}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis/chemistry ; *Climate ; Ecology/methods/trends ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Forecasting ; Gases/analysis/chemistry ; Greenhouse Effect ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" requires stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we present an inverse approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modeling, which allows us to estimate the probability that any given level of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will exceed specified long-term global mean temperature targets for "dangerous anthropogenic interference," taking into consideration uncertainties in climate sensitivity and the carbon cycle response to climate change. We show that to stabilize global mean temperature increase at 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels with a probability of at least 0.66, cumulative CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2500 must not exceed a median estimate of 590 petagrams of carbon (PgC) (range, 200 to 950 PgC). If the 2 degrees C temperature stabilization target is to be met with a probability of at least 0.9, median total allowable CO2 emissions are 170 PgC (range, -220 to 700 PgC). Furthermore, these estimates of cumulative CO2 emissions, compatible with a specified temperature stabilization target, are independent of the path taken to stabilization. Our analysis therefore supports an international policy framework aimed at avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference formulated on the basis of total allowable greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid19706477, year = {2009}, author = {Santer, BD and Taylor, KE and Gleckler, PJ and Bonfils, C and Barnett, TP and Pierce, DW and Wigley, TM and Mears, C and Wentz, FJ and Brüggemann, W and Gillett, NP and Klein, SA and Solomon, S and Stott, PA and Wehner, MF}, title = {Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {35}, pages = {14778-14783}, pmid = {19706477}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {In a recent multimodel detection and attribution (D&amp;A) study using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor was identifiable with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Each model received equal weight in the D&amp;A analysis, despite large differences in the skill with which they simulate key aspects of observed climate. Here, we examine whether water vapor D&amp;A results are sensitive to model quality. The "top 10" and "bottom 10" models are selected with three different sets of skill measures and two different ranking approaches. The entire D&amp;A analysis is then repeated with each of these different sets of more or less skillful models. Our performance metrics include the ability to simulate the mean state, the annual cycle, and the variability associated with El Niño. We find that estimates of an anthropogenic water vapor fingerprint are insensitive to current model uncertainties, and are governed by basic physical processes that are well-represented in climate models. Because the fingerprint is both robust to current model uncertainties and dissimilar to the dominant noise patterns, our ability to identify an anthropogenic influence on observed multidecadal changes in water vapor is not affected by "screening" based on model quality.}, }
@article {pmid19706430, year = {2009}, author = {O'Gorman, PA and Schneider, T}, title = {The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {35}, pages = {14773-14777}, pmid = {19706430}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extratropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19706300, year = {2010}, author = {Llewellyn, LE}, title = {Revisiting the association between sea surface temperature and the epidemiology of fish poisoning in the South Pacific: reassessing the link between ciguatera and climate change.}, journal = {Toxicon : official journal of the International Society on Toxinology}, volume = {56}, number = {5}, pages = {691-697}, doi = {10.1016/j.toxicon.2009.08.011}, pmid = {19706300}, issn = {1879-3150}, mesh = {Ciguatera Poisoning/*epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Pacific Ocean ; Prevalence ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The most detailed dataset of ciguatera intensity is that produced by the South Pacific Epidemiological and Health Information Service (SPEHIS) of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community. The SPEHIS fish poisoning database has been previously analysed yielding statistically significant correlations between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and ciguatera case numbers in several countries raising concerns this affliction will increase as oceans warm. Mapping of the SPEHIS records and other data hints at ciguatera not only being restricted to warm waters but that the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, a body of water that remains hot throughout much of the year, may inhibit ciguatera prevalence. A qualitative assessment of ciguatera intensity and sea surface temperature (SST) behaviour within the EEZ of selected South Pacific nations supported the notion that ciguatera intensity was highest when SST was between an upper and lower limit. Many more climate and SST indices beyond the SOI are now available, including some that measure the abovementioned phenomenon of oceanic warm pools. Statistically significant, positive and negative cross-correlations were obtained between time series of annual ciguatera case rates from the SPEHIS dataset and the Pacific Warm Pool Index and several ENSO related indices which had been lagged for up to 2 years before the ciguatera time series. This further supports the possibility that when considering the impact of climate change on ciguatera, one has to consider two thresholds, namely waters that remain warm enough for a long enough period can lead to ciguatera and that extended periods where the water remains too hot may depress ciguatera case rates. Such a model would complicate projections of the effects of climate change upon ciguatera beyond that of a simple relationship where increased SST may cause more ciguatera.}, }
@article {pmid19705164, year = {2010}, author = {Endler, C and Oehler, K and Matzarakis, A}, title = {Vertical gradient of climate change and climate tourism conditions in the Black Forest.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {54}, number = {1}, pages = {45-61}, pmid = {19705164}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Climate Change/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Computer Simulation ; Germany ; *Models, Theoretical ; Travel/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Due to the public discussion about global and regional warming, the regional climate and the modified climate conditions are analyzed exemplarily for three different regions in the southern Black Forest (southwest Germany). The driving question behind the present study was how can tourism adapt to modified climate conditions and associated changes to the tourism potential in low mountain ranges. The tourism potential is predominately based on the attractiveness of natural resources being climate-sensitive. In this study, regional climate simulations (A1B) are analyzed by using the REMO model. To analyze the climatic tourism potential, the following thermal, physical and aesthetic parameters are considered for the time span 1961-2050: thermal comfort, heat and cold stress, sunshine, humid-warm conditions (sultriness), fog, precipitation, storm, and ski potential (snow cover). Frequency classes of these parameters expressed as a percentage are processed on a monthly scale. The results are presented in form of the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Due to warmer temperatures, winters might shorten while summers might lengthen. The lowland might be more affected by heat and sultriness (e.g., Freiburg due to the effects of urban climate). To adapt to a changing climate and tourism, the awareness of both stakeholders and tourists as well as the adaptive capability are essential.}, }
@article {pmid19704137, year = {2009}, author = {Jeppesen, E and Kronvang, B and Meerhoff, M and Søndergaard, M and Hansen, KM and Andersen, HE and Lauridsen, TL and Liboriussen, L and Beklioglu, M and Ozen, A and Olesen, JE}, title = {Climate change effects on runoff, catchment phosphorus loading and lake ecological state, and potential adaptations.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {38}, number = {5}, pages = {1930-1941}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2008.0113}, pmid = {19704137}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Denmark ; Ecosystem ; Fresh Water/chemistry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Phosphorus/*analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change may have profound effects on phosphorus (P) transport in streams and on lake eutrophication. Phosphorus loading from land to streams is expected to increase in northern temperate coastal regions due to higher winter rainfall and to a decline in warm temperate and arid climates. Model results suggest a 3.3 to 16.5% increase within the next 100 yr in the P loading of Danish streams depending on soil type and region. In lakes, higher eutrophication can be expected, reinforced by temperature-mediated higher P release from the sediment. Furthermore, a shift in fish community structure toward small and abundant plankti-benthivorous fish enhances predator control of zooplankton, resulting in higher phytoplankton biomass. Data from Danish lakes indicate increased chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biomass, higher dominance of dinophytes and cyanobacteria (most notably of nitrogen fixing forms), but lower abundance of diatoms and chrysophytes, reduced size of copepods and cladocerans, and a tendency to reduced zooplankton biomass and zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio when lakes warm. Higher P concentrations are also seen in warm arid lakes despite reduced external loading due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced inflow. Therefore, the critical loading for good ecological state in lakes has to be lowered in a future warmer climate. This calls for adaptation measures, which in the northern temperate zone should include improved P cycling in agriculture, reduced loading from point sources, and (re)-establishment of wetlands and riparian buffer zones. In the arid Southern Europe, restrictions on human use of water are also needed, not least on irrigation.}, }
@article {pmid19701596, year = {2009}, author = {Piotrowicz, K}, title = {The occurrence of unfavorable thermal conditions on human health in central europe and potential climate change impacts: an example from Cracow, Poland.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {44}, number = {4}, pages = {766-775}, pmid = {19701596}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Climate ; Environment Design ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Morbidity ; Mortality/*trends ; Poland/epidemiology ; Public Health ; *Temperature ; Urban Population ; }, abstract = {Progressive global warming exerts strong influence on the lives and on the health of urban residents, many of who are weather sensitive people (meteoropaths). In the temperate zone, air temperature changes largely determine the seasonal oscillation of morbidity and mortality frequency. The present study analyzes the influence of air temperature on living conditions in central European urban areas, particularly Cracow (Poland), and examines this influence against the background of climate change. During the warmer months, there is a noticeable increase in the unfavorable occurrence of especially strong thermal stimuli (e.g., hot days) which can lead to overheating of the human organism. On the other hand, the increasing frequency of mild winters contributes to the appearance of weak and moderate thermal stimuli, which in the case of the former, is a negative phenomenon. Weak thermal stimuli are liable to make the human body oversensitive and, thus lose the ability to adapt if stronger thermal stimuli were to occur. Residents of large urban areas should be prepared for the possibility of dynamic weather changes and should take thermal variability into consideration with regards to spatial urban planning and socioeconomic activities.}, }
@article {pmid19698897, year = {2009}, author = {Korenberg, EI}, title = {Chapter 4. Recent epidemiology of tick-borne encephalitis an effect of climate change?.}, journal = {Advances in virus research}, volume = {74}, number = {}, pages = {123-144}, doi = {10.1016/S0065-3527(09)74004-7}, pmid = {19698897}, issn = {1557-8399}, mesh = {Animals ; *Arachnid Vectors/physiology/virology ; Cities ; Climate ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/*epidemiology/transmission/virology ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; *Ixodes/physiology/virology ; Prevalence ; Rural Population ; Russia/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Consideration is given to the opinion of some specialists that the rise in tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) morbidity at the turn of the century has been accounted for by new features of TBE epidemiology as well as by global climate change. It is shown that neither the reputed current expansion of the ranges of main TBE vectors, the taiga (Ixodes persulcatus) and sheep (Ixodes ricinus) ticks, nor the significant rise of their abundance and TBE virus prevalence in them are confirmed by any objective data. The concept of recent tick expansion to large cities and human TBE infection in newly formed urban foci disagrees with the facts repeatedly described during the past four decades. There is no reliable information on the expansion of TBE nosological range. The influence of newly formed anthropurgic foci and of changes in the contribution of city dwellers to the general morbidity structure on the current epidemiological situation is estimated. As in the case of any other zoonosis with natural focality, the level of epidemiological manifestation of TBE foci is determined by two main parameters: the intensity of virus circulation in the foci (i.e., their loimopotential) and the frequency of human contact with them. Attention is paid to the character of interaction between these two factors, which accounted for a major outbreak of TBE morbidity at the end of the twentieth century, followed by a long-term decrease in its level.}, }
@article {pmid19694874, year = {2010}, author = {Jones, T and Cresswell, W}, title = {The phenology mismatch hypothesis: are declines of migrant birds linked to uneven global climate change?.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {79}, number = {1}, pages = {98-108}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01610.x}, pmid = {19694874}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate Change ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {1. Migrant bird populations are declining and have been linked to anthropogenic climate change. The phenology mismatch hypothesis predicts that migrant birds, which experience a greater rate of warming in their breeding grounds compared to their wintering grounds, are more likely to be in decline, because their migration will occur later and they may then miss the early stages of the breeding season. Population trends will also be negatively correlated with distance, because the chances of phenology mismatch increase with number of staging sites. 2. Population trends from the Palaearctic (1990-2000) and Nearctic (1980-2006) were collated for 193 spatially separate migrant bird populations, along with temperature trends for the wintering and breeding areas. An index of phenology mismatch was calculated as the difference between wintering and breeding temperature trends. 3. In the Nearctic, phenology mismatch was correlated with population declines as predicted, but in the Palaearctic, distance was more important. This suggests that differential global climate change may be responsible for contributing to some migrant species' declines, but its effects may be more important in the Nearctic. 4. Differences in geography and so average migration distance, migrant species composition and history of anthropogenic change in the two areas may account for the differences in the strength of the importance of phenology mismatch on migrant declines in the Nearctic and Palaearctic.}, }
@article {pmid19694447, year = {2009}, author = {Bera, PP and Francisco, JS and Lee, TJ}, title = {Identifying the molecular origin of global warming.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {113}, number = {45}, pages = {12694-12699}, doi = {10.1021/jp905097g}, pmid = {19694447}, issn = {1520-5215}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Climate ; Fluorides/*chemistry ; Fluorocarbons/*chemistry ; *Global Warming ; Nitrogen/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {We have investigated the physical characteristics of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to assess which properties are most important in determining the efficiency of a GHG. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), nitrogen fluorides, and various other known atmospheric trace molecules have been included in this study. Compounds containing the halogens F or Cl have in common very polar X-F or X-Cl bonds, particularly the X-F bonds. It is shown that as more F atoms bond to the same central atom the bond dipoles become larger as a result of the central atom becoming more positive. This leads to a linear increase in the total or integrated X-F bond dipole derivatives for the molecule, which leads to a nonlinear (quadratic) increase in infrared (IR) intensity. Moreover, virtually all of the X-F bond stretches occur in the atmospheric IR window as opposed to X-H stretches, which do not occur in the atmospheric window. It is concluded that molecules possessing several F atoms will always have a large radiative forcing parameter in the calculation of their global warming potential. Some of the implications for global warming and climate change are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid19692739, year = {2009}, author = {Kovats, S}, title = {Acting on climate change is good for health.}, journal = {The Indian journal of medical research}, volume = {129}, number = {6}, pages = {625-627}, pmid = {19692739}, issn = {0971-5916}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid19689589, year = {2009}, author = {Weston, D}, title = {Policy on global warming: fiddling while the globe burns?.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {307-311}, doi = {10.1111/j.1753-6405.2009.00400.x}, pmid = {19689589}, issn = {1753-6405}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Poverty ; Public Health/*economics ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To assess the extent that the health consequences of global warming and the responses to it take due account of its impact on poverty and inequality.<br><br>METHOD: Reviewing the relevant literature on global warming, proposed solutions and the impact.<br><br>RESULTS: To date, too little attention has been paid to the health consequences arising from the increased poverty and inequality that global warming will bring. When these are combined with issues arising from the economic melt-down, food shortages, peak oil, etc. we are heading for a global public health crisis of immeasurable magnitude.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Solutions lie in rethinking the global economic system that we have relied upon over the past several decades and the global institutions that have led and fed off that global system - the IMF, the World Bank and so on.<br><br>IMPLICATIONS: Public health practitioners need to look and act globally more often. They need to better recognise the links between global warming and the global financial crisis. How the latter is dealt with will determine whether the former can be resolved. It is in this global political economy arena that future action in public health lies.}, }
@article {pmid19688089, year = {2009}, author = {Hayes, BJ and Bowman, PJ and Chamberlain, AJ and Savin, K and van Tassell, CP and Sonstegard, TS and Goddard, ME}, title = {A validated genome wide association study to breed cattle adapted to an environment altered by climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {4}, number = {8}, pages = {e6676}, pmid = {19688089}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Breeding ; Cattle/*genetics ; *Climate Change ; Genome-Wide Association Study/*veterinary ; }, abstract = {Continued production of food in areas predicted to be most affected by climate change, such as dairy farming regions of Australia, will be a major challenge in coming decades. Along with rising temperatures and water shortages, scarcity of inputs such as high energy feeds is predicted. With the motivation of selecting cattle adapted to these changing environments, we conducted a genome wide association study to detect DNA markers (single nucleotide polymorphisms) associated with the sensitivity of milk production to environmental conditions. To do this we combined historical milk production and weather records with dense marker genotypes on dairy sires with many daughters milking across a wide range of production environments in Australia. Markers associated with sensitivity of milk production to feeding level and sensitivity of milk production to temperature humidity index on chromosome nine and twenty nine respectively were validated in two independent populations, one a different breed of cattle. As the extent of linkage disequilibrium across cattle breeds is limited, the underlying causative mutations have been mapped to a small genomic interval containing two promising candidate genes. The validated marker panels we have reported here will aid selection for high milk production under anticipated climate change scenarios, for example selection of sires whose daughters will be most productive at low levels of feeding.}, }
@article {pmid19687147, year = {2010}, author = {Gallar, M}, title = {Obesity and climate change.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {39}, number = {5}, pages = {1398-1399}, doi = {10.1093/ije/dyp279}, pmid = {19687147}, issn = {1464-3685}, mesh = {Body Mass Index ; *Climate Change ; Eating ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Obesity/*epidemiology/*physiopathology ; *Politics ; Transportation ; }, }
@article {pmid19685082, year = {2010}, author = {Gilbert, L}, title = {Altitudinal patterns of tick and host abundance: a potential role for climate change in regulating tick-borne diseases?.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {162}, number = {1}, pages = {217-225}, pmid = {19685082}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Deer/parasitology ; Galliformes/parasitology ; *Geography ; Hares/parasitology ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Humans ; Humidity ; Ixodes/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Larva/growth &amp; development ; Models, Theoretical ; Nymph/growth &amp; development ; Population Density ; Scotland ; Temperature ; Tick-Borne Diseases/*prevention &amp; control/transmission ; }, abstract = {The impact of climate change on vector-borne infectious diseases is currently controversial. In Europe the primary arthropod vectors of zoonotic diseases are ticks, which transmit Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (the agent of Lyme disease), tick-borne encephalitis virus and louping ill virus between humans, livestock and wildlife. Ixodes ricinus ticks and reported tick-borne disease cases are currently increasing in the UK. Theories for this include climate change and increasing host abundance. This study aimed to test how I. ricinus tick abundance might be influenced by climate change in Scotland by using altitudinal gradients as a proxy, while also taking into account the effects of hosts, vegetation and weather effects. It was predicted that tick abundance would be higher at lower altitudes (i.e. warmer climates) and increase with host abundance. Surveys were conducted on nine hills in Scotland, all of open moorland habitat. Tick abundance was positively associated with deer abundance, but even after taking this into account, there was a strong negative association of ticks with altitude. This was probably a real climate effect, with temperature (and humidity, i.e. saturation deficit) most likely playing an important role. It could be inferred that ticks may become more abundant at higher altitudes in response to climate warming. This has potential implications for pathogen prevalence such as louping ill virus if tick numbers increase at elevations where competent transmission hosts (red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus and mountain hares Lepus timidus) occur in higher numbers.}, }
@article {pmid19678898, year = {2009}, author = {Qaderi, MM and Reid, DM}, title = {Methane emissions from six crop species exposed to three components of global climate change: temperature, ultraviolet-B radiation and water stress.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {137}, number = {2}, pages = {139-147}, doi = {10.1111/j.1399-3054.2009.01268.x}, pmid = {19678898}, issn = {1399-3054}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/*metabolism/radiation effects ; *Dehydration ; Methane/*metabolism ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development/metabolism/radiation effects ; *Temperature ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {We examined the effects of temperature, ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation and watering regime on aerobic methane (CH(4)) emission from six crops-faba bean, sunflower, pea, canola, barley and wheat. Plants were grown in controlled-environment growth chambers under two temperature regimes (24/20 and 30/26 degrees C), three levels of UVB radiation [0 (zero), 5 (ambient) and 10 (enhanced) kJ m(-2) d(-1)] and two watering regimes (well watered and water stressed). A gas chromatograph with a flame ionization detector was used to measure CH(4) emission rates [ng g(-1) dry weight (DW) h(-1)] from detached fresh leaves of each species and attached leaves of pea plants. Plant growth [stem height, leaf area (LA) and aboveground dry matter (AG biomass)] and gas exchange [net CO(2) assimilation (A(N)), transpiration (E) and water use efficiency (WUE)] were also determined. We found that higher temperature, water stress and UVB radiation at the zero and enhanced levels significantly enhanced CH(4) emissions. Crop species varied in CH(4) emission, which was highest for pea and lowest for barley. Higher temperature and water stress reduced all growth parameters, whereas ambient and enhanced UVB decreased stem height but increased LA and AG biomass. Higher temperature decreased A(N) and WUE but increased E, whereas water stress decreased A(N) but increased E and WUE. Zero and enhanced UVB reduced A(N) and E. Growth and gas exchange varied with species. Overall, CH(4) emission was negatively correlated with stem height and AG biomass. We conclude that CH(4) emissions may increase under climatic stress conditions and this extra source might contribute to the 'greenhouse effect'.}, }
@article {pmid19675010, year = {2009}, author = {Newbrey, MG and Murray, AM and Wilson, MV and Brinkman, DB and Neuman, AG}, title = {Seventy-five-million-year-old tropical tetra-like fish from Canada tracks Cretaceous global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {276}, number = {1674}, pages = {3829-3833}, pmid = {19675010}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Canada ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*anatomy &amp; histology ; *Fossils ; }, abstract = {Newly discovered fossil fish material from the Cretaceous Dinosaur Park Formation of Alberta, Canada, documents the presence of a tropical fish in this northern area about 75 million years ago (Ma). The living relatives of this fossil fish, members of the Characiformes including the piranha and neon tetras, are restricted to tropical and subtropical regions, being limited in their distribution by colder temperatures. Although characiform fossils are known from Cretaceous through to Cenozoic deposits, none has been reported previously from North America. The modern distribution of characiforms in Mexico and southern Texas in the southernmost United States is believed to have been the result of a relatively recent colonization less than 12 Ma. The new Canadian fossils document the presence of these fish in North America in the Late Cretaceous, a time of significantly warmer global temperatures than now. Global cooling after this time apparently extirpated them from the northern areas and these fishes only survived in more southern climes. The lack of early Cenozoic characiform fossils in North America suggests that marine barriers prevented recolonization during warmer times, unlike in Europe where Eocene characiform fossils occur during times of global warmth.}, }
@article {pmid19675006, year = {2009}, author = {Gardner, JL and Heinsohn, R and Joseph, L}, title = {Shifting latitudinal clines in avian body size correlate with global warming in Australian passerines.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {276}, number = {1674}, pages = {3845-3852}, pmid = {19675006}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Australia ; Body Size/*physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Passeriformes/*physiology ; Wings, Animal/anatomy &amp; histology ; }, abstract = {Intraspecific latitudinal clines in the body size of terrestrial vertebrates, where members of the same species are larger at higher latitudes, are widely interpreted as evidence for natural selection and adaptation to local climate. These clines are predicted to shift in response to climate change. We used museum specimens to measure changes in the body size of eight passerine bird species from south-eastern Australia over approximately the last 100 years. Four species showed significant decreases in body size (1.8-3.6% of wing length) and a shift in latitudinal cline over that period, and a meta-analysis demonstrated a consistent trend across all eight species. Southern high-latitude populations now display the body sizes typical of more northern populations pre-1950, equivalent to a 7 degrees shift in latitude. Using ptilochronology, we found no evidence that these morphological changes were a plastic response to changes in nutrition, a likely non-genetic mechanism for the pattern observed. Our results demonstrate a generalized response by eight avian species to some major environmental change over the last 100 years or so, probably global warming.}, }
@article {pmid19673715, year = {2009}, author = {Hess, JJ and Heilpern, KL and Davis, TE and Frumkin, H}, title = {Climate change and emergency medicine: impacts and opportunities.}, journal = {Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine}, volume = {16}, number = {8}, pages = {782-794}, doi = {10.1111/j.1553-2712.2009.00469.x}, pmid = {19673715}, issn = {1553-2712}, mesh = {*Emergency Medicine ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Humans ; Planning Techniques ; Public Health ; Public Opinion ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {There is scientific consensus that the climate is changing, that human activity plays a major role, and that the changes will continue through this century. Expert consensus holds that significant health effects are very likely. Public health and health care systems must understand these impacts to properly pursue preparedness and prevention activities. All of medicine will very likely be affected, and certain medical specialties are likely to be more significantly burdened based on their clinical activity, ease of public access, public health roles, and energy use profiles. These specialties have been called on to consider the likely impacts on their patients and practice and to prepare their practitioners. Emergency medicine (EM), with its focus on urgent and emergent ambulatory care, role as a safety-net provider, urban concentration, and broad-based clinical mission, will very likely experience a significant rise in demand for its services over and above current annual increases. Clinically, EM will see amplification of weather-related disease patterns and shifts in disease distribution. In EM's prehospital care and disaster response activities, both emergency medical services (EMS) activity and disaster medical assistance team (DMAT) deployment activities will likely increase. EM's public health roles, including disaster preparedness, emergency department (ED)-based surveillance, and safety-net care, are likely to face increasing demands, along with pressures to improve fuel efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, EM's roles in ED and hospital management, particularly related to building and purchasing, are likely to be impacted by efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance energy efficiency. Climate change thus presents multiple clinical and public health challenges to EM, but also creates numerous opportunities for research, education, and leadership on an emerging health issue of global scope.}, }
@article {pmid19673714, year = {2009}, author = {Cone, DC and Gerson, LW and Bono, MJ}, title = {Emergency medicine and climate change.}, journal = {Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine}, volume = {16}, number = {8}, pages = {774-775}, doi = {10.1111/j.1553-2712.2009.00479.x}, pmid = {19673714}, issn = {1553-2712}, mesh = {*Emergency Medicine ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Humans ; Public Health ; Public Opinion ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid19673295, year = {2009}, author = {Tagaris, E and Liao, KJ and Delucia, AJ and Deck, L and Amar, P and Russell, AG}, title = {Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {13}, pages = {4979-4988}, doi = {10.1021/es803650w}, pmid = {19673295}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*analysis ; Environmental Exposure ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Mortality ; Ozone/*chemistry ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Public Health ; United States ; }, abstract = {The potential health impact of ambient ozone and PM2.5 concentrations modulated by climate change over the United States is investigated using combined atmospheric and health modeling. Regional air quality modeling for 2001 and 2050 was conducted using CMAQ Modeling System with meteorology from the GISS Global Climate Model, downscaled regionally using MM5,keeping boundary conditions of air pollutants, emission sources, population, activity levels, and pollution controls constant. BenMap was employed to estimate the air pollution health outcomes at the county, state, and national level for 2050 caused by the effect of meteorology on future ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. The changes in calculated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations show a relatively modest change with positive and negative responses (increasing PM2.5 levels across the northeastern U.S.) although average ozone levels slightly decrease across the northern sections of the U.S., and increase across the southern tier. Results suggest that climate change driven air quality-related health effects will be adversely affected in more then 2/3 of the continental U.S. Changes in health effects induced by PM2.5 dominate compared to those caused by ozone. PM2.5-induced premature mortality is about 15 times higher then that due to ozone. Nationally the analysis suggests approximately 4000 additional annual premature deaths due to climate change impacts on PM2.5 vs 300 due to climate change-induced ozone changes. However, the impacts vary spatially. Increased premature mortality due to elevated ozone concentrations will be offset by lower mortality from reductions in PM2.5 in 11 states. Uncertainties related to different emissions projections used to simulate future climate, and the uncertainties forecasting the meteorology, are large although there are potentially important unaddressed uncertainties (e.g., downscaling, speciation, interaction, exposure, and concentration-response function of the human health studies).}, }
@article {pmid19665643, year = {2009}, author = {Guzman, JM}, title = {Climate change and population growth.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {374}, number = {9688}, pages = {450}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61449-5}, pmid = {19665643}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Climate ; *Developing Countries ; *Ecological and Environmental Phenomena ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid19661378, year = {2009}, author = {Hegerl, GC and Solomon, S}, title = {Climate change. Risks of climate engineering.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {325}, number = {5943}, pages = {955-956}, doi = {10.1126/science.1178530}, pmid = {19661378}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19660846, year = {2010}, author = {Ficklin, DL and Luo, Y and Luedeling, E and Gatzke, SE and Zhang, M}, title = {Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO2 and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {158}, number = {1}, pages = {223-234}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2009.07.016}, pmid = {19660846}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {California ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Climate Change ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Models, Theoretical ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO(2), temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO(2) concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by +/-10% and +/-20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO(2) concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO(2) concentration changes.}, }
@article {pmid19658256, year = {2009}, author = {Ebrahim, S}, title = {Ideology with evidence: global warming, maps and ethics.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {38}, number = {4}, pages = {894-896}, doi = {10.1093/ije/dyp268}, pmid = {19658256}, issn = {1464-3685}, mesh = {Cluster Analysis ; Ethics, Research ; *Greenhouse Effect ; HIV Infections/epidemiology ; Humans ; Neoplasms/etiology ; Obesity/complications/*epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid19657153, year = {2009}, author = {Wesselink, A and de Vriend, H and Barneveld, H and Krol, M and Bijker, W}, title = {Hydrology and hydraulics expertise in participatory processes for climate change adaptation in the Dutch Meuse.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {60}, number = {3}, pages = {583-595}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2009.412}, pmid = {19657153}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Floods ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Netherlands ; Professional Competence ; *Rivers ; Water/*physiology ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Many scientists feel that scientific outcomes are not sufficiently taken into account in policy-making. The research reported in this paper shows what happens with scientific information during such a process. In 2001 the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management commissioned their regional office in Limburg to assess how flood management objectives could be achieved in future in the Dutch Meuse valley, assuming climate change will increase peak discharges. To ensure political support, regional discussion rounds were to help assess the measures previously identified. This paper discusses the ways in which hydrological and hydraulic expertise was input, understood and used in this assessment process. Project participants as a group had no trouble contesting assumptions and outcomes. Nevertheless, water expertise was generally accepted as providing facts, once basic choices such as starting situation had been discussed and agreed. The technical constraints determined that politically unacceptable measures would have to be selected to achieve the legally binding flood management objective. As a result, no additional space will be set aside for future flood management beyond the already reserved floodplain. In this case, political arguments clearly prevail over policy objectives, with hydraulic expertise providing decisive arbitration between the two.}, }
@article {pmid19654902, year = {2009}, author = {Schmidt, CW}, title = {Beyond mitigation: planning for climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {7}, pages = {A306-9}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.117-a306}, pmid = {19654902}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid19654901, year = {2009}, author = {Holzman, DC}, title = {Climate change abatement strategies which way is the wind blowing?.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {7}, pages = {A296-304}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.117-a296}, pmid = {19654901}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Public Health ; United States ; United States Environmental Protection Agency/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid19654897, year = {2009}, author = {Potera, C}, title = {Climate change: challenges of predicting wildfire activity.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {7}, pages = {A293}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.117-a293}, pmid = {19654897}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; Ecosystem ; *Fires ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid19654896, year = {2009}, author = {Engelhaupt, E}, title = {Ecology and wildlife: climate change and the Arctic diet.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {7}, pages = {A292}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.117-a292}, pmid = {19654896}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild/*physiology ; Arctic Regions ; *Diet ; *Ecology ; Environmental Pollution/adverse effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid19649255, year = {2009}, author = {Jaramillo, J and Chabi-Olaye, A and Kamonjo, C and Jaramillo, A and Vega, FE and Poehling, HM and Borgemeister, C}, title = {Thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei: predictions of climate change impact on a tropical insect pest.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {4}, number = {8}, pages = {e6487}, pmid = {19649255}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Coleoptera/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Colombia ; Ethiopia ; Fertility ; Kenya ; Life Cycle Stages ; Tanzania ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Coffee is predicted to be severely affected by climate change. We determined the thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei, the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, and make inferences on the possible effects of climate change using climatic data from Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. For this, the effect of eight temperature regimes (15, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35 degrees C) on the bionomics of H. hampei was studied. Successful egg to adult development occurred between 20-30 degrees C. Using linear regression and a modified Logan model, the lower and upper thresholds for development were estimated at 14.9 and 32 degrees C, respectively. In Kenya and Colombia, the number of pest generations per year was considerably and positively correlated with the warming tolerance. Analysing 32 years of climatic data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1-2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed. Calculated data on warming tolerance and thermal safety margins of H. hampei for the three East African locations showed considerably high variability compared to the Colombian site. The model indicates that for every 1 degrees C rise in thermal optimum (T(opt.)), the maximum intrinsic rate of increase (r(max)) will increase by an average of 8.5%. The effects of climate change on the further range of H. hampei distribution and possible adaption strategies are discussed. Abstracts in Spanish and French are provided as supplementary material Abstract S1 and Abstract S2.}, }
@article {pmid19647858, year = {2009}, author = {Reinds, GJ and Posch, M and Leemans, R}, title = {Modelling recovery from soil acidification in European forests under climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {407}, number = {21}, pages = {5663-5673}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.07.013}, pmid = {19647858}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Environmental Pollution ; Europe ; Geography ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Temperature ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {A simple soil acidification model was applied to evaluate the effects of sulphur and nitrogen emission reductions on the recovery of acidified European forest soils. In addition we included the effects of climate change on soil solution chemistry, by modelling temperature effects on soil chemical processes and including temperature and precipitation effects on nitrogen uptake and on leaching. Model results showed a strong effect of the emission reduction scenarios on soil solution chemistry. Using the Current Legislation (CLE) scenario, the forest area in Europe with soil solution Al/Bc >1 mol mol(-1) (a widely used critical limit) decreased from about 4% in 1990 to about 1.7% in 2050. Under Maximum Feasible Reductions (MFR), the exceeded area will be <1% in 2050. In addition, the area where limits for the nitrate concentration in soils are violated is predicted to be smaller under MFR than under CLE. Using the most stringent criterion for nitrate ([NO(3)] <0.3mg l(-1)), the area with nitrate concentrations in excess of the critical limit is about 33% in 2050 under CLE, but only 12% under MFR. Recovery, i.e. attaining non-violation of the criterion, is also much faster under MFR than under CLE. Climate change leads to higher weathering rates and nitrogen uptake in the model, but positive effects on recovery from acidification are limited compared to current climate, and differences between the A1 and B2 climate change scenarios were small. Target loads for 2050 exist for 4% of the area for Al/Bc=1 and for 12% of the area when using a criterion of ANC=0 for the soil solution. In about 30% of the area where meaningful target loads exists, the computed target load is lower than the deposition under MFR, and thus cannot be attained with current emission abatement technologies.}, }
@article {pmid19646731, year = {2009}, author = {Jennings, E and Allott, N and Pierson, DC and Schneiderman, EM and Lenihan, D and Samuelsson, P and Taylor, D}, title = {Impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading from a grassland catchment: implications for future management.}, journal = {Water research}, volume = {43}, number = {17}, pages = {4316-4326}, doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2009.06.032}, pmid = {19646731}, issn = {1879-2448}, mesh = {Calibration ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Phosphorus/*chemistry ; *Poaceae ; }, abstract = {Dynamic modelling was used to quantify the impact of projected climate change, and potential changes in population and land use, on phosphorus (P) export from a sub-catchment in SW Ireland using the Generalised Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model. Overall the results indicated that the increase in annual total phosphorus loads attributable to climate change was greater than that from either population or land use change, and therefore that future climate variability will pose an increasingly significant threat to the successful long-term implementation of catchment management initiatives. The seasonal pattern in projected P export mirrored changes in streamflow, with higher rates between January and April and lower rates in summer. The potential reduction in export in summer was, however, negated when increases in population were included in simulations. A change in the slurry spreading period from that stipulated in national regulations to the months between April and September could potentially mitigate against future increases in dissolved P export in spring. The results indicate that projected changes in climate should be included when undertaking modelling exercises in support of decision making for catchment management plans.}, }
@article {pmid19641600, year = {2009}, author = {Klausmeyer, KR and Shaw, MR}, title = {Climate change, habitat loss, protected areas and the climate adaptation potential of species in mediterranean ecosystems worldwide.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {4}, number = {7}, pages = {e6392}, pmid = {19641600}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Biodiversity ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Mediterranean Region ; }, abstract = {Mediterranean climate is found on five continents and supports five global biodiversity hotspots. Based on combined downscaled results from 23 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for three emissions scenarios, we determined the projected spatial shifts in the mediterranean climate extent (MCE) over the next century. Although most AOGCMs project a moderate expansion in the global MCE, regional impacts are large and uneven. The median AOGCM simulation output for the three emissions scenarios project the MCE at the end of the 21(st) century in Chile will range from 129-153% of its current size, while in Australia, it will contract to only 77-49% of its current size losing an area equivalent to over twice the size of Portugal. Only 4% of the land area within the current MCE worldwide is in protected status (compared to a global average of 12% for all biome types), and, depending on the emissions scenario, only 50-60% of these protected areas are likely to be in the future MCE. To exacerbate the climate impact, nearly one third (29-31%) of the land where the MCE is projected to remain stable has already been converted to human use, limiting the size of the potential climate refuges and diminishing the adaptation potential of native biota. High conversion and low protection in projected stable areas make Australia the highest priority region for investment in climate-adaptation strategies to reduce the threat of climate change to the rich biodiversity of the mediterranean biome.}, }
@article {pmid19640587, year = {2009}, author = {Delpla, I and Jung, AV and Baures, E and Clement, M and Thomas, O}, title = {Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {35}, number = {8}, pages = {1225-1233}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2009.07.001}, pmid = {19640587}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Bacterial Toxins/toxicity ; Carbon/analysis ; Cyanobacteria/pathogenicity ; Cyanobacteria Toxins ; Disinfectants/analysis ; Droughts ; Environmental Monitoring ; Floods ; Fresh Water/*chemistry/microbiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Marine Toxins/toxicity ; Microcystins/toxicity ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Temperature ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; Water Supply/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Besides climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological risks, the consequences on water quality is just beginning to be studied. This review aims at proposing a synthesis of the most recent existing interdisciplinary literature on the topic. After a short presentation about the role of the main factors (warming and consequences of extreme events) explaining climate change effects on water quality, the focus will be on two main points. First, the impacts on water quality of resources (rivers and lakes) modifying parameters values (physico-chemical parameters, micropollutants and biological parameters) are considered. Then, the expected impacts on drinking water production and quality of supplied water are discussed. The main conclusion which can be drawn is that a degradation trend of drinking water quality in the context of climate change leads to an increase of at risk situations related to potential health impact.}, }
@article {pmid19640499, year = {2009}, author = {Brierley, AS and Kingsford, MJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change on marine organisms and ecosystems.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {19}, number = {14}, pages = {R602-14}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2009.05.046}, pmid = {19640499}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; *Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Marine Biology ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Dynamics ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Human activities are releasing gigatonnes of carbon to the Earth's atmosphere annually. Direct consequences of cumulative post-industrial emissions include increasing global temperature, perturbed regional weather patterns, rising sea levels, acidifying oceans, changed nutrient loads and altered ocean circulation. These and other physical consequences are affecting marine biological processes from genes to ecosystems, over scales from rock pools to ocean basins, impacting ecosystem services and threatening human food security. The rates of physical change are unprecedented in some cases. Biological change is likely to be commensurately quick, although the resistance and resilience of organisms and ecosystems is highly variable. Biological changes founded in physiological response manifest as species range-changes, invasions and extinctions, and ecosystem regime shifts. Given the essential roles that oceans play in planetary function and provision of human sustenance, the grand challenge is to intervene before more tipping points are passed and marine ecosystems follow less-buffered terrestrial systems further down a spiral of decline. Although ocean bioengineering may alleviate change, this is not without risk. The principal brake to climate change remains reduced CO(2) emissions that marine scientists and custodians of the marine environment can lobby for and contribute to. This review describes present-day climate change, setting it in context with historical change, considers consequences of climate change for marine biological processes now and in to the future, and discusses contributions that marine systems could play in mitigating the impacts of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19640494, year = {2009}, author = {Ridgwell, A and Valdes, PJ}, title = {Climate and climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {19}, number = {14}, pages = {R563-6}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2009.05.014}, pmid = {19640494}, issn = {1879-0445}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry ; *Climatic Processes ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Sunlight ; }, }
@article {pmid19636606, year = {2009}, author = {West, JM and Julius, SH and Kareiva, P and Enquist, C and Lawler, JJ and Petersen, B and Johnson, AE and Shaw, MR}, title = {U.S. natural resources and climate change: concepts and approaches for management adaptation.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {1001-1021}, pmid = {19636606}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Decision Making ; Environment ; Environmental Monitoring ; United States ; }, abstract = {Public lands and waters in the United States traditionally have been managed using frameworks and objectives that were established under an implicit assumption of stable climatic conditions. However, projected climatic changes render this assumption invalid. Here, we summarize general principles for management adaptations that have emerged from a major literature review. These general principles cover many topics including: (1) how to assess climate impacts to ecosystem processes that are key to management goals; (2) using management practices to support ecosystem resilience; (3) converting barriers that may inhibit management responses into opportunities for successful implementation; and (4) promoting flexible decision making that takes into account challenges of scale and thresholds. To date, the literature on management adaptations to climate change has mostly focused on strategies for bolstering the resilience of ecosystems to persist in their current states. Yet in the longer term, it is anticipated that climate change will push certain ecosystems and species beyond their capacity to recover. When managing to support resilience becomes infeasible, adaptation may require more than simply changing management practices--it may require changing management goals and managing transitions to new ecosystem states. After transitions have occurred, management will again support resilience--this time for a new ecosystem state. Thus, successful management of natural resources in the context of climate change will require recognition on the part of managers and decisions makers of the need to cycle between "managing for resilience" and "managing for change."}, }
@article {pmid19636605, year = {2009}, author = {Keller, BD and Gleason, DF and McLeod, E and Woodley, CM and Airamé, S and Causey, BD and Friedlander, AM and Grober-Dunsmore, R and Johnson, JE and Miller, SL and Steneck, RS}, title = {Climate change, coral reef ecosystems, and management options for marine protected areas.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {1069-1088}, pmid = {19636605}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more "traditional" stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.}, }
@article {pmid19634380, year = {2009}, author = {Roberts, I}, title = {The health co-benefits of climate change policies: doctors have a responsibility to future generations.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {212-213}, pmid = {19634380}, issn = {1470-2118}, mesh = {Accidents, Traffic/prevention &amp; control ; Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate ; Diet ; Food Handling ; Fossil Fuels ; *Global Health ; Health Behavior ; Humans ; *Public Policy ; Vehicle Emissions ; }, abstract = {Mitigating climate change presents unrivalled opportunities for improving public health. The policies that need to be implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will also bring about substantial reductions in heart disease, cancer, obesity, diabetes, road deaths and injuries, and air pollution. The health benefits arise because climate change policies necessarily impact on two of the most important determinants of health: human nutrition and human movement. Although the health co-benefits of climate change policies are increasingly recognised by health professionals they are not widely appreciated by those responsible for policy. Because the existence of important health co-benefits will dramatically reduce the cost to society of taking strong action to mitigate climate change, failure to appreciate their importance could have serious environmental consequences. Health professionals have an urgent responsibility to ensure that the health benefits of environmental policies are understood by the public and by policymakers.}, }
@article {pmid19633397, year = {2009}, author = {Plósz, BG and Liltved, H and Ratnaweera, H}, title = {Climate change impacts on activated sludge wastewater treatment: a case study from Norway.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {60}, number = {2}, pages = {533-541}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2009.386}, pmid = {19633397}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/analysis/isolation &amp; purification ; Norway ; *Sewage ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/methods ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; Water Purification/*methods ; }, abstract = {We present an investigation on climate change effects on a wastewater treatment system that receive sewage collected in a combined sewer system in Oslo, Norway, during winter operation. Results obtained, by contrasting meteorological data with sewage data, show that wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent flow rates are significantly increased during temporary snow melting periods above a critical daily air mean temperature of approx. -1.5 degrees C degree (T(Crit)) identified in the area. In order to assess melting patterns, the number of days above and below T(Crit) was assessed, and the annual number of melting periods was additionally evaluated using meteorological data obtained in the last decade. A striking thing about the daily air temperature pattern is that, despite the progressively warmer winter temperatures in the last decade, an increasing number of days with temperatures below -1.5 degrees C could be observed. The frequency of melting periods is shown to increase in wintertime, and it is identified as an additional climate change related factor in the Oslo region. We demonstrate that these impacts can deteriorate the WWTP operation through progressively increasing the relative frequencies of very high influent flow rate and of the very low influent sewage temperature. Such climate change related effects on sewage treatment processes can be characterised as shock-conditions, i.e. significant changes in a system's boundary conditions, occurring in a relatively short period of time. In the six year period examined, biological nitrogen removal and secondary clarification processes are shown to be significantly affected by the climate factors. A striking thing about using the state-of-the-art mathematical models of wastewater treatment processes in decision support systems is their inability of describing, and thus predicting the effects of such shock-loading events, as they have not been studied so far. Adaptation and optimisation of process models, also for use in design, optimisation as well as in real-time automation and process control schemes, are thus critical to meet the challenges of climatic changes in the future.}, }
@article {pmid19633368, year = {2009}, author = {Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K and Fleischer, HS}, title = {Feasible adaptation strategies for increased risk of flooding in cities due to climate change.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {60}, number = {2}, pages = {273-281}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2009.298}, pmid = {19633368}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Cities ; Climate ; Disaster Planning/*methods ; Disasters ; Drainage, Sanitary ; Europe ; *Floods ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Risk ; Social Class ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Northern Europe is one of the regions where more frequent and more severe storms and storm surges are expected due to climatic changes. In order to maintain an acceptable risk of flooding suitable adaptation strategies must be defined and implemented. Optimum solutions demand collaboration of different professionals and thus simple graphical means must be employed to illustrate the economic impacts of the change in risk of flooding. A case study indicates that urban drainage infrastructure capacity should be upgraded while there is currently no economic incentive to improve protection against sea surges.}, }
@article {pmid19628825, year = {2009}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Clouds appear to be big, bad player in global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {325}, number = {5939}, pages = {376}, doi = {10.1126/science.325_376}, pmid = {19628825}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19627308, year = {2009}, author = {McKibben, B}, title = {Surviving climate change through mitigation and adaptation.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {23}, number = {4}, pages = {796}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01275.x}, pmid = {19627308}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid19627231, year = {2009}, author = {Davies, TJ and Purvis, A and Gittleman, JL}, title = {Quaternary climate change and the geographic ranges of mammals.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {174}, number = {3}, pages = {297-307}, doi = {10.1086/603614}, pmid = {19627231}, issn = {1537-5323}, mesh = {Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; *Climate ; Mammals/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {A species' range can be a proxy for its ecological well-being. Species with small and shrinking range distributions are particularly vulnerable to extinction. Future climate change scenarios are predicted to affect species' geographical extents, but data on how species' distributions respond to changing climate are largely anecdotal, and our understanding of the determinants and limits to species geographic ranges is surprisingly poor. Here we show that mammal species in more historically variable environments have larger geographical ranges. However, the relationship between range size and long-term climate trends cannot be explained by variation in our estimates of habitat specificity. We suggest that large oscillations in Quaternary temperatures may have shaped the contemporary distribution of range sizes via the selective extirpation of small-ranged species during glacial expansion and/or recolonization by good dispersers after glacial retreats. The effect of current climate change on species' distributions and extinctions may therefore be determined by the geographical coincidence between historical and future climate scenarios, the "mesh size" of the extinction/dispersal filter imposed by past climate change, and whether similar ecological and evolutionary responses to historical climatic change are appropriate in an increasingly transformed and fragmented landscape.}, }
@article {pmid19625317, year = {2009}, author = {Cresswell, W and Clark, JA and Macleod, R}, title = {How climate change might influence the starvation-predation risk trade-off response.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {276}, number = {1672}, pages = {3553-3560}, pmid = {19625317}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Weight ; Falconiformes/*physiology ; Female ; Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; Models, Biological ; *Predatory Behavior ; Seat Belts ; Songbirds/*physiology ; *Starvation ; }, abstract = {Climate change within the UK will affect winter starvation risk because higher temperatures reduce energy budgets and are likely to increase the quality of the foraging environment. Mass regulation in birds is a consequence of the starvation-predation risk trade-off: decreasing starvation risk because of climate change should decrease mass, but this will be countered by the effects of predation risk, because high predation risk has a negative effect on mass when foraging conditions are poor and a positive effect on mass when foraging conditions are good. We tested whether mass regulation in great tits (Parus major) across the UK was related to temporal changes in starvation risk (winter temperature 1995-2005) and spatial changes in predation risk (sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus abundance). As predicted, great tits carried less mass during later, warmer, winters, demonstrating that starvation risk overall has decreased. Also, the effects of predation risk interacted with the effects of temperature (as an index of foraging conditions), so that in colder winters higher sparrowhawk abundance led to lower mass, whereas in warmer, later, winters higher sparrowhawk abundance led to higher mass. Mass regulation in a small bird species may therefore provide an index of how environmental change is affecting the foraging environment.}, }
@article {pmid19625302, year = {2009}, author = {Maloney, SK and Fuller, A and Mitchell, D}, title = {Climate change: is the dark Soay sheep endangered?.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {5}, number = {6}, pages = {826-829}, pmid = {19625302}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate Change ; Endangered Species ; Hebrides ; *Pigmentation/genetics ; *Selection, Genetic ; *Sheep, Domestic/genetics ; }, abstract = {It was recently reported that the proportion of dark-coloured Soay sheep (Ovis aries) in the Hebrides has decreased, despite the fact that dark sheep tend to be larger than lighter sheep, and there exists a selective advantage to large body size. It was concluded that an apparent genetic linkage between loci for the coat colour polymorphism and loci with antagonistic effects on body size explained the decrease. Those results explain why the proportion of dark animals is not increasing, but not why it is decreasing. Between 1985 and 2005 there was a significant increase in mean ambient temperature near the islands. We suggest that, while in the past a dark coat has offset the metabolic costs of thermoregulation by absorbing solar radiation, the selective advantage of a dark coat may be waning as the climate warms in the North Atlantic. In parallel, Bergman's rule may be operating, reducing the selective advantage of large body size in the cold. Either or both of these mechanisms can explain the decrease in the proportion of dark-coloured larger sheep in this population in which smaller (and light-coloured) sheep should be favoured by their lower gross energy demand. If environmental effects are the cause of the decline, then we can expect the proportion of dark-coloured Soay sheep to decrease further.}, }
@article {pmid19625300, year = {2009}, author = {Brook, BW and Akçakaya, HR and Keith, DA and Mace, GM and Pearson, RG and Araújo, MB}, title = {Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {5}, number = {6}, pages = {723-725}, pmid = {19625300}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Australia ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Extinction, Biological ; Forecasting ; *Models, Biological ; *Plants ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25-29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species.}, }
@article {pmid19622394, year = {2009}, author = {Folguera, G and Bastías, DA and Bozinovic, F}, title = {Impact of experimental thermal amplitude on ectotherm performance: Adaptation to climate change variability?.}, journal = {Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular &amp; integrative physiology}, volume = {154}, number = {3}, pages = {389-393}, doi = {10.1016/j.cbpa.2009.07.008}, pmid = {19622394}, issn = {1531-4332}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Behavior, Animal/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; *Climate ; Phthiraptera/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity; one of the most important effects is increase in the mean earth surface temperature. However, another but poorly studied main effect of global change appears to be an increase in temperature variability. Most of the current analyses of global change have focused on mean values, paying less attention to the role of the fluctuations of environmental variables. We tested the effects of daily thermal amplitude with constant mean (24-24 degrees C, 27-21 degrees C and 32-16 degrees C) on different performance traits (rollover speed, body mass balance and survival) in populations of woodlouse (Porcellio laevis) from two altitudes. We observed that maximum performance showed a significant effect of population in the first but not in the fifth week, and only the population effect was significant for optimum temperature. Interestingly, populations under higher amplitude in environmental temperature exhibited higher resistance to a fluctuating climatic regime. We suggest that our results indicate that thermal variability may produce important effects on biodiversity. Therefore, in order to develop more realistic scenarios of global climate change effects on biodiversity, the effects of thermal variability as well as mean need to be examined simultaneously.}, }
@article {pmid19620720, year = {2009}, author = {Daufresne, M and Lengfellner, K and Sommer, U}, title = {Global warming benefits the small in aquatic ecosystems.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {31}, pages = {12788-12793}, pmid = {19620720}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Bacteria/isolation &amp; purification ; *Body Size ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Fishes ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Phytoplankton/isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {Understanding the ecological impacts of climate change is a crucial challenge of the twenty-first century. There is a clear lack of general rules regarding the impacts of global warming on biota. Here, we present a metaanalysis of the effect of climate change on body size of ectothermic aquatic organisms (bacteria, phyto- and zooplankton, and fish) from the community to the individual level. Using long-term surveys, experimental data and published results, we show a significant increase in the proportion of small-sized species and young age classes and a decrease in size-at-age. These results are in accordance with the ecological rules dealing with the temperature-size relationships (i.e., Bergmann's rule, James' rule and Temperature-Size Rule). Our study provides evidence that reduced body size is the third universal ecological response to global warming in aquatic systems besides the shift of species ranges toward higher altitudes and latitudes and the seasonal shifts in life cycle events.}, }
@article {pmid19617592, year = {2009}, author = {Simioni, G and Ritson, P and Kirschbaum, MU and McGrath, J and Dumbrell, I and Copeland, B}, title = {The carbon budget of Pinus radiata plantations in south-western Australia under four climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {29}, number = {9}, pages = {1081-1093}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpp049}, pmid = {19617592}, issn = {0829-318X}, mesh = {Australia ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Pinus/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Rain ; Temperature ; Water/metabolism ; Wood/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; }, abstract = {We conducted a comprehensive modelling study to estimate future stem wood production and net ecosystem production (NEP) of Pinus radiata D. Don plantations in south-western Australia, a region that is predicted to undergo severe rainfall reduction in future decades. The process-based model CenW was applied to four locations where it had previously been tested. Climate change scenarios under four emission scenarios for the period from 2005 to 2066 were considered, in addition to simulations under the current climate. Results showed that stem wood production and NEP were little affected by moderate climate change. However, under the most pessimistic climate change scenario (Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2), stem wood production and NEP decreased strongly. These results could be explained by the trade-off between the positive effect of rising atmospheric CO(2) on plant water use efficiency and the negative effects of decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures. Because changes in heterotrophic respiration (R(H)) lagged behind changes in plant growth, and because R(H) rates were increased by higher temperatures, NEP was more negatively affected than stem wood production. Stem wood production and NEP also strongly interacted with location, with the site currently having the wettest climate being least affected by climatic change. These results suggest that realistic predictions of forest production and carbon sequestration potential in the context of climate change require (1) the use of modelling tools that describe the important feedbacks between environmental variables, plant physiology and soil organic matter decomposition, (2) consideration of a range of climate change scenarios and (3) simulations that account for a gradual climate change to capture transient effects.}, }
@article {pmid19608902, year = {2009}, author = {Timmermann, A and Menviel, L}, title = {Climate change. What drives climate flip-flops?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {325}, number = {5938}, pages = {273-274}, doi = {10.1126/science.1177159}, pmid = {19608902}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19608497, year = {2009}, author = {Foster, D}, title = {Global warming solutions and the path to recovery.}, journal = {New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {109-118}, doi = {10.2190/NS.19.2.c}, pmid = {19608497}, issn = {1048-2911}, mesh = {*Economics ; *Environmental Health ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Labor Unions/*organization &amp; administration ; Politics ; }, abstract = {We will look back on the last year as a period when extraordinary economic events marked the unraveling of one economic model and placed in front of the global community a set of choices. Either we restructure the architecture of the global economy and replace it with something else, or we face a future of devastating economic consequences. The Blue Green Alliance has become one of America's leading advocates for global warming solutions and we believe that the benefits and economic opportunities will far outweigh the costs. We have popularized the terms "green economy" and "green jobs" and we believe that every job in America should turn into a green job.}, }
@article {pmid19607707, year = {2009}, author = {Carbajo, AE and Vera, C and González, PL}, title = {Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia.}, journal = {International journal of health geographics}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {44}, pmid = {19607707}, issn = {1476-072X}, mesh = {Animals ; Argentina/epidemiology ; *Demography ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Orthohantavirus ; Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome/epidemiology/transmission ; *Models, Statistical ; *Rodentia ; Sigmodontinae ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo) is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967-1998), trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends.<br><br>METHODS: Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario.<br><br>RESULTS: If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir.<br><br>CONCLUSION: According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in an equivalent period of time only in certain areas. Given that changes maintain for 60 years or double in 30 years, the hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus may contract its distribution in Argentine Patagonia extensively.}, }
@article {pmid19605897, year = {2009}, author = {Summers, BA}, title = {Climate change and animal disease.}, journal = {Veterinary pathology}, volume = {46}, number = {6}, pages = {1185-1186}, doi = {10.1354/vp.09-VP-0139-S-COM}, pmid = {19605897}, issn = {1544-2217}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology ; Animals ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/veterinary ; Virus Diseases/epidemiology/veterinary ; }, }
@article {pmid19605388, year = {2009}, author = {Virah-Sawmy, M and Bonsall, MB and Willis, KJ}, title = {'Tales of Symphonia': extinction dynamics in response to past climate change in Madagascan rainforests.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {5}, number = {6}, pages = {821-825}, pmid = {19605388}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Clusiaceae ; *Ecosystem ; Ericaceae ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Fossils ; Madagascar ; *Models, Biological ; Myrica ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Madagascar's rainforests are among the most biodiverse in the world. Understanding the population dynamics of important species within these forests in response to past climatic variability provides valuable insight into current and future species composition. Here, we use a population-level approach to analyse palaeoecological records over the last 5300 years to understand how populations of Symphonia cf. verrucosa became locally extinct in some rainforest fragments along the southeast coast of Madagascar in response to rapid climate change, yet persisted in others. Our results indicate that regional (climate) variability contributed to synchronous decline of S. cf. verrucosa populations in these forests. Superimposed on regional fluctuations were local processes that could have contributed or mitigated extinction. Specifically, in the forest with low soil nutrients, population model predictions indicated that there was coexistence between S. cf. verrucosa and Erica spp., but in the nutrient-rich forest, interspecific effects between Symphonia and Erica spp. may have pushed Symphonia to extinction at the peak of climatic change. We also demonstrate that Symphonia is a good indicator of a threshold event, exhibiting erratic fluctuations prior to and long after the critical climatic point has passed.}, }
@article {pmid19604277, year = {2009}, author = {Rohayem, J}, title = {Norovirus seasonality and the potential impact of climate change.}, journal = {Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {524-527}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-0691.2009.02846.x}, pmid = {19604277}, issn = {1469-0691}, mesh = {Caliciviridae Infections/*epidemiology/virology ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Norovirus/*isolation &amp; purification ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {Seasonal variation in norovirus infection is a recognized but poorly understood phenomenon. It is likely to be based on biological, environmental and behavioural factors that regulate transmission, virulence and persistence of the virions in host populations. Understanding the seasonal dependency of norovirus infection is an important step towards understanding its epidemiology, with subsequent implementation of efficient measures of surveillance and control. Whether or not climate change could influence the seasonal patterns of norovirus infection, by impacting on its transmission, geographic distribution and prevalence, has not yet been considered. This review addresses the question.}, }
@article {pmid19604276, year = {2009}, author = {Klempa, B}, title = {Hantaviruses and climate change.}, journal = {Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {518-523}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-0691.2009.02848.x}, pmid = {19604276}, issn = {1469-0691}, mesh = {Animals ; Arvicolinae/*virology ; *Climate ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Disease Reservoirs ; Europe ; Greenhouse Effect ; Orthohantavirus/*isolation &amp; purification ; Hantavirus Infections/*epidemiology/virology ; Humans ; Incidence ; }, abstract = {Most hantaviruses are rodent-borne emerging viruses. They cause two significant human diseases, haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Asia and Europe, and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome in the Americas. Very recently, several novel hantaviruses with unknown pathogenic potential have been identified in Africa and in a variety of insectivores (shrews and a mole). Because there is very limited information available on the possible impact of climate change on all of these highly dangerous pathogens, it is timely to review this aspect of their epidemiology. It can reasonably be concluded that climate change should influence hantaviruses through impacts on the hantavirus reservoir host populations. We can anticipate changes in the size and frequency of hantavirus outbreaks, the spectrum of hantavirus species and geographical distribution (mediated by changes in population densities), and species composition and geographical distribution of their reservoir hosts. The early effects of global warming have already been observed in different geographical areas of Europe. Elevated average temperatures in West-Central Europe have been associated with more frequent Puumala hantavirus outbreaks, through high seed production (mast year) and high bank vole densities. On the other hand, warm winters in Scandinavia have led to a decline in vole populations as a result of the missing protective snow cover. Additional effects can be caused by increased intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, or by changes in human behaviour leading to higher risk of human virus exposure. Regardless of the extent of climate change, it is difficult to predict the impact on hantavirus survival, emergence and epidemiology. Nevertheless, hantaviruses will undoubtedly remain a significant public health threat for several decades to come.}, }
@article {pmid19604275, year = {2009}, author = {Elliott, RM}, title = {Bunyaviruses and climate change.}, journal = {Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {510-517}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-0691.2009.02849.x}, pmid = {19604275}, issn = {1469-0691}, support = {//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; //Medical Research Council/United Kingdom ; //Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Bunyaviridae/*isolation &amp; purification ; Bunyaviridae Infections/*epidemiology/virology ; *Climate ; Culicidae/growth &amp; development ; Disease Vectors ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; }, abstract = {It is generally accepted that the planet is undergoing climatic changes, and 'climate change' has become the scapegoat for many catastrophes, including infectious disease outbreaks, as acknowledged by Randolph and Ergonul, who state 'Climate change is the current ubiquitous explanation for increased incidence of infections of many sorts' (Future Virology 2008; 3: 303-306). However, as these authors argue, this is a highly simplistic view and, indeed, there is a complex network of factors that are responsible for disease emergence and re-emergence. In this short review, the role that climate change could play in the emergence of bunyavirus disease is considered, using a few selected examples.}, }
@article {pmid19604274, year = {2009}, author = {Clegg, JC}, title = {Influence of climate change on the incidence and impact of arenavirus diseases: a speculative assessment.}, journal = {Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {504-509}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-0691.2009.02847.x}, pmid = {19604274}, issn = {1469-0691}, mesh = {Arenaviridae Infections/*epidemiology/virology ; Arenavirus/*isolation &amp; purification ; *Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; }, abstract = {The current worldwide incidence of viral haemorrhagic fevers caused by arenaviruses is briefly reviewed. The recently published Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has described the changes in global climate that are expected to occur over the course of the present century and beyond. Climate modelling and forecasting have not yet reached the stage where confident predictions of regional changes at the level of a virus endemic area can be made. However, in the regions where pathogenic arenaviruses now circulate, significant effects are likely to include increases in surface temperature, changes in the extent and distribution of rainfall, the occurrence of extreme weather events, glacier retreat, and coastal flooding as a result of sea level rise. The possible impact of these changes on the geographical location and the incidence of arenavirus diseases and its human impact are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid19604273, year = {2009}, author = {Gould, E}, title = {Emerging viruses and the significance of climate change.}, journal = {Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {503}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-0691.2009.02845.x}, pmid = {19604273}, issn = {1469-0691}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*epidemiology/*virology ; Humans ; Virus Diseases/*epidemiology/*virology ; Viruses/*isolation &amp; purification ; }, }
@article {pmid19603641, year = {2009}, author = {Hruska, J and Krám, P and McDowell, WH and Oulehle, F}, title = {Increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Central European streams is driven by reductions in ionic strength rather than climate change or decreasing acidity.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {12}, pages = {4320-4326}, doi = {10.1021/es803645w}, pmid = {19603641}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Carbon/*chemistry ; Environmental Monitoring ; Europe ; Greenhouse Effect ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Osmolar Concentration ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Time Factors ; Water/*chemistry ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*chemistry ; }, abstract = {Temporal trends in DOC concentration and flux were investigated at two geochemically distinct forested catchments in western Czech Republic. Mean discharge-weighted DOC concentrations averaged 18.8 mg L(-1) at the acidic Lysina catchment, and 20.2 mg L(-1) at base-rich and well-buffered Pluhuv Bor. Between 1993 and 2007 DOC in streamwater increased significantly in both catchments: the mean annual increase was 0.42 mg L(-1) yr(-1) (p < 0.001) at Lysina and 0.43 mg L(-1) yr(-1) (p < 0.001) at Pluhuv Bor, resulting in cumulative increases of 64 and 65%, respectively. These long-term increases in streamwater DOC were correlated with only modest increases in stream pH in both catchments, but large declines in ionic strength (IS), that resulted from declining atmospheric deposition. Neither catchment has undergone changes in soil-water pH, yet DOC concentrations tripled in the soil-water of both catchments. We conclude that changes in ionic strength of soil-water and streamwater, rather than acidity, are the primary drivers of changes in streamwater DOC in this region. Temperature, precipitation and discharge show no statistically significant trends during the study period, suggesting that climate change has played no role in the changes in DOC that we have observed.}, }
@article {pmid19603629, year = {2009}, author = {Nansai, K and Kagawa, S and Suh, S and Fujii, M and Inaba, R and Hashimoto, S}, title = {Material and energy dependence of services and its implications for climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {12}, pages = {4241-4246}, doi = {10.1021/es8025775}, pmid = {19603629}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Economics ; Electric Power Supplies/economics/trends ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Japan ; Refuse Disposal ; }, abstract = {As the services industry has grown and diversified, there has been a rapid rise in the share of energy and material costs in provision of services. As a result, services, which have traditionally been considered immaterial by their nature, are now absorbing substantial amounts of energy and material goods. By decomposing the CO2 emissions embodied in material goods and services, this study quantitatively analyzes the implications of energy and materials consumption in services for the change in indirect CO2 emissions by household consumers in Japan. The results show that the domestic CO2 emissions associated with the energy and material goods absorbed by services through the supply chain increased consistently during the decade 1990-2000, thereby constituting a key element in the rise in CO2 emissions due to household consumption. The energy and materials within the supply chain underlying services that have been identified as the main causes of this increase include electric power consumption, petroleum products, building renovation and repair, distribution of printed materials, plastic products and water, all of which are necessary to support the services in question. This study highlights the increasing importance of energy and materials consumption by services in the context of climate change policy.}, }
@article {pmid19597873, year = {2009}, author = {Palmer, MA and Lettenmaier, DP and Poff, NL and Postel, SL and Richter, B and Warner, R}, title = {Climate change and river ecosystems: protection and adaptation options.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {1053-1068}, pmid = {19597873}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {Rivers provide a special suite of goods and services valued highly by the public that are inextricably linked to their flow dynamics and the interaction of flow with the landscape. Yet most rivers are within watersheds that are stressed to some extent by human activities including development, dams, or extractive uses. Climate change will add to and magnify risks that are already present through its potential to alter rainfall, temperature, runoff patterns, and to disrupt biological communities and sever ecological linkages. We provide an overview of the predicted impacts based on published studies to date, discuss both reactive and proactive management responses, and outline six categories of management actions that will contribute substantially to the protection of valuable river assets. To be effective, management must be place-based focusing on local watershed scales that are most relevant to management scales. The first priority should be enhancing environmental monitoring of changes and river responses coupled with the development of local scenario-building exercises that take land use and water use into account. Protection of a greater number of rivers and riparian corridors is essential, as is conjunctive groundwater/surface water management. This will require collaborations among multiple partners in the respective river basins and wise land use planning to minimize additional development in watersheds with valued rivers. Ensuring environmental flows by purchasing or leasing water rights and/or altering reservoir release patterns will be needed for many rivers. Implementing restoration projects proactively can be used to protect existing resources so that expensive reactive restoration to repair damage associated with a changing climate is minimized. Special attention should be given to diversifying and replicating habitats of special importance and to monitoring populations at high risk or of special value so that management interventions can occur if the risks to habitats or species increase significantly over time.}, }
@article {pmid19592084, year = {2009}, author = {Kumar, SP and Roshin, RP and Narvekar, J and Kumar, PK and Vivekanandan, E}, title = {Response of the Arabian Sea to global warming and associated regional climate shift.}, journal = {Marine environmental research}, volume = {68}, number = {5}, pages = {217-222}, doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2009.06.010}, pmid = {19592084}, issn = {1879-0291}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Cyclonic Storms/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Indian Ocean ; Oceans and Seas ; Rain ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Temperature ; Triticum/economics/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The response of the Arabian Sea to global warming is the disruption in the natural decadal cycle in the sea surface temperature (SST) after 1995, followed by a secular warming. The Arabian Sea is experiencing a regional climate-shift after 1995, which is accompanied by a five fold increase in the occurrence of "most intense cyclones". Signatures of this climate-shift are also perceptible over the adjacent landmass of India as: (1) progressively warmer winters, and (2) decreased decadal monsoon rainfall. The warmer winters are associated with a 16-fold decrease in the decadal wheat production after 1995, while the decreased decadal rainfall was accompanied by a decline of vegetation cover and increased occurrence of heat spells. We propose that in addition to the oceanic thermal inertia, the upwelling-driven cooling provided a mechanism that offset the CO(2)-driven SST increase in the Arabian Sea until 1995.}, }
@article {pmid19591861, year = {2009}, author = {Maibach, E and Steg, L and Anable, J}, title = {Promoting physical activity and reducing climate change: opportunities to replace short car trips with active transportation.}, journal = {Preventive medicine}, volume = {49}, number = {4}, pages = {326-327}, doi = {10.1016/j.ypmed.2009.06.028}, pmid = {19591861}, issn = {1096-0260}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; *Automobile Driving ; *Bicycling ; *Climate Change ; Communication ; *Exercise ; Health Policy ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; Motor Activity ; Obesity/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Social Marketing ; *Walking ; }, abstract = {Automobile use is a significant contributor to climate change, local air pollution, pedestrian injuries and deaths, declines in physical activity and obesity. A significant proportion of car use is for short trips that can relatively easily be taken with active transportation options--walking or cycling--or with public transportation. In this commentary, we review a number of immediate, practical opportunities to implement policies and programs that reduce short car trips and increase active transportation.}, }
@article {pmid19589987, year = {2009}, author = {Quaas, J}, title = {Atmosphere. Smoke and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {325}, number = {5937}, pages = {153-154}, doi = {10.1126/science.1176991}, pmid = {19589987}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19588192, year = {2009}, author = {Joyce, LA and Blate, GM and McNulty, SG and Millar, CI and Moser, S and Neilson, RP and Peterson, DL}, title = {Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {1022-1032}, pmid = {19588192}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Forestry ; United States ; }, abstract = {This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning and management that the United States Forest Service might adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-climatic changes, influence selection of the adaptation approach. Resource assessments are opportunities to develop strategic information that could be used to identify and link adaptation strategies across planning levels. Within a National Forest, planning must incorporate the opportunity to identify vulnerabilities to climate change as well as incorporate approaches that allow management adjustments as the effects of climate change become apparent. The nature of environmental variability, the inevitability of novelty and surprise, and the range of management objectives and situations across the National Forest System implies that no single approach will fit all situations. A toolbox of management options would include practices focused on forestalling climate change effects by building resistance and resilience into current ecosystems, and on managing for change by enabling plants, animals, and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. Better and more widespread implementation of already known practices that reduce the impact of existing stressors represents an important "no regrets" strategy. These management opportunities will require agency consideration of its adaptive capacity, and ways to overcome potential barriers to these adaptation options.}, }
@article {pmid19585887, year = {2009}, author = {Cecchi, G and Courtin, F and Paone, M and Diarra, A and Franco, JR and Mattioli, RC and Simarro, PP}, title = {Mapping sleeping sickness in Western Africa in a context of demographic transition and climate change.}, journal = {Parasite (Paris, France)}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {99-106}, doi = {10.1051/parasite/2009162099}, pmid = {19585887}, issn = {1252-607X}, mesh = {Africa, Western/epidemiology ; *Climate ; Environment ; Humans ; *Population Dynamics ; Trypanosomiasis, African/*epidemiology ; United Nations ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {Human population growth, climate change and economic development are causing major environmental modifications in Western Africa, which will have important repercussions on the epidemiology of sleeping sickness. A new initiative, the Atlas of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), aims at assembling and geo-referencing all epidemiological data derived from both active screening activities and passive surveillance. A geographic database enables to generate up-to-date disease maps at a range of scales and of unprecedented spatial accuracy. We present preliminary results for seven West African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Mali and Togo) and briefly discuss the relevance of the Atlas for future monitoring, control and research activities.}, }
@article {pmid19584456, year = {2009}, author = {Grover, S and Rajeshwari, }, title = {Global warming and its impact on skin disorders.}, journal = {Indian journal of dermatology, venereology and leprology}, volume = {75}, number = {4}, pages = {337-339}, doi = {10.4103/0378-6323.53127}, pmid = {19584456}, issn = {0973-3922}, mesh = {Global Health ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Skin Diseases/epidemiology/*etiology ; Skin Neoplasms/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Sunburn ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid19584119, year = {2009}, author = {Habash, DZ and Kehel, Z and Nachit, M}, title = {Genomic approaches for designing durum wheat ready for climate change with a focus on drought.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {60}, number = {10}, pages = {2805-2815}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erp211}, pmid = {19584119}, issn = {1460-2431}, support = {BBS/E/C/00004952/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Breeding ; Chromosome Mapping ; Climate ; Droughts ; Ecosystem ; *Genomics/methods ; Quantitative Trait Loci ; Triticum/*genetics/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is projected to have a significant impact on temperature and precipitation profiles in the Mediterranean basin. The incidence and severity of drought will become commonplace and this will reduce the productivity of rain-fed crops such as durum wheat. Genetic diversity is the material basis for crop improvement and plant breeding has exploited naturally occurring variation to deliver cultivars with improved resistance to abiotic stresses. The coupling of new genomic tools, technologies, and resources with genetic approaches is essential to underpin wheat breeding through marker-assisted selection and hence mitigate climate change. Improvements in crop performance under abiotic stresses have primarily targeted yield-related traits and it is anticipated that the application of genomic technologies will introduce new target traits for consideration in wheat breeding for resistance to drought. Many traits relating to the plant's response and adaptation to drought are complex and multigenic, and quantitative genetics coupled with genomic technologies have the potential to dissect complex genetic traits and to identify regulatory loci, genes and networks. Full realization of our abilities to manipulate metabolism, transduction pathways, and transcription factors for crop improvement ultimately relies on our basic understanding of the regulation of plant networks at all levels of function.}, }
@article {pmid19580695, year = {2010}, author = {Gale, P and Brouwer, A and Ramnial, V and Kelly, L and Kosmider, R and Fooks, AR and Snary, EL}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.}, journal = {Epidemiology and infection}, volume = {138}, number = {2}, pages = {214-225}, doi = {10.1017/S0950268809990367}, pmid = {19580695}, issn = {1469-4409}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/epidemiology/transmission/virology ; Animals ; Arthropod Vectors/*virology ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/transmission ; European Union ; *Expert Testimony ; Humans ; Virus Diseases/*transmission ; }, abstract = {Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19579685, year = {2009}, author = {Featherstone, H and Weitkamp, E and Ling, K and Burnet, F}, title = {Defining issue-based publics for public engagement: climate change as a case study.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {214-228}, doi = {10.1177/0963662507082890}, pmid = {19579685}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {*Awareness ; *Climate Change ; Focus Groups ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Models, Theoretical ; Pilot Projects ; Qualitative Research ; Science/*education ; *Social Perception ; }, abstract = {Understanding your audiences' perceptions is key to the success of any communication campaign. This research note outlines a pilot study using the Situational Model of publics to segment the broader public. Focus groups were used to study publics' understandings and perceptions of climate change to determine if this issue-based publics model is relevant to this field. The work shows the potential of this model of publics, but in the case of climate change it may need a minor refinement.}, }
@article {pmid19440484, year = {2009}, author = {Tillett, T}, title = {Climate change and agricultural agents: planning for future interactions.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {4}, pages = {A163}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.117-a163b}, pmid = {19440484}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Agrochemicals/metabolism/*toxicity ; Climate ; Environmental Exposure/prevention &amp; control ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Environmental Pollutants/metabolism/*toxicity ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid19561328, year = {2009}, author = {Powles, J}, title = {Commentary: Why diets need to change to avert harm from global warming.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {38}, number = {4}, pages = {1141-1142}, doi = {10.1093/ije/dyp247}, pmid = {19561328}, issn = {1464-3685}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; *Diet ; Energy Intake/physiology ; Feeding Behavior ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Male ; Meat ; Middle Aged ; Obesity/*epidemiology/physiopathology ; }, }
@article {pmid19560274, year = {2009}, author = {Kutz, SJ and Jenkins, EJ and Veitch, AM and Ducrocq, J and Polley, L and Elkin, B and Lair, S}, title = {The Arctic as a model for anticipating, preventing, and mitigating climate change impacts on host-parasite interactions.}, journal = {Veterinary parasitology}, volume = {163}, number = {3}, pages = {217-228}, doi = {10.1016/j.vetpar.2009.06.008}, pmid = {19560274}, issn = {1873-2550}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild/*parasitology ; Arctic Regions ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Parasitic Diseases, Animal/epidemiology/*parasitology/prevention &amp; control ; Zoonoses/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {Climate change is influencing the structure and function of natural ecosystems around the world, including host-parasite interactions and disease emergence. Understanding the influence of climate change on infectious disease at temperate and tropical latitudes can be challenging because of numerous complicating biological, social, and political factors. Arctic and Subarctic regions may be particularly good models for unraveling the impacts of climate change on parasite ecology because they are relatively simple systems with low biological diversity and few other complicating anthropogenic factors. We examine some changing dynamics of host-parasite interactions at high latitudes and use these to illustrate a framework for approaching understanding, preventing, and mitigating climate change impacts on infectious disease, including zoonoses, in wildlife.}, }
@article {pmid19558717, year = {2009}, author = {Holt, AC and Salkeld, DJ and Fritz, CL and Tucker, JR and Gong, P}, title = {Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of health geographics}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {38}, pmid = {19558717}, issn = {1476-072X}, mesh = {Animals ; California/epidemiology ; Coyotes ; *Demography ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Models, Statistical ; Plague/*epidemiology/etiology ; Sciuridae ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance.<br><br>RESULTS: Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions.}, }
@article {pmid19556065, year = {2009}, author = {Kenyon, F and Sargison, ND and Skuce, PJ and Jackson, F}, title = {Sheep helminth parasitic disease in south eastern Scotland arising as a possible consequence of climate change.}, journal = {Veterinary parasitology}, volume = {163}, number = {4}, pages = {293-297}, doi = {10.1016/j.vetpar.2009.03.027}, pmid = {19556065}, issn = {1873-2550}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Disease Outbreaks/veterinary ; Helminthiasis, Animal/*epidemiology/*parasitology ; Helminths/genetics/physiology ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Scotland/epidemiology ; Seasons ; Sentinel Surveillance/veterinary ; Sheep ; Sheep Diseases/*epidemiology/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {The climate in the UK is changing, with a trend towards increased rainfall in the autumn and winter and warmer average temperatures throughout the year. There has also been a 4-week extension of the herbage growing season over the past 40 years. These changes may have implications for the epidemiology of sheep helminth parasites. Here, we describe production-limiting disease outbreaks caused by Haemonchus contortus, Nematodirus battus, Teladorsagia circumcincta and Fasciola hepatica in sheep flocks in south eastern Scotland. The occurrence and timing of these disease outbreaks could not have been predicted in this region highlighting changes in the epidemiology of helminth infections from the patterns historically described. These cases are used to introduce discussion regarding the potential effects of climate change on the epidemiology of helminth parasites and the implications for sheep farming in the UK.}, }
@article {pmid19555019, year = {2009}, author = {}, title = {Act now on global warming.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {301}, number = {1}, pages = {31}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0709-31}, pmid = {19555019}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Energy-Generating Resources/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Fossil Fuels/*economics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Taxes/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid19554352, year = {2009}, author = {Jägerbrand, AK and Alatalo, JM and Chrimes, D and Molau, U}, title = {Plant community responses to 5 years of simulated climate change in meadow and heath ecosystems at a subarctic-alpine site.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {161}, number = {3}, pages = {601-610}, pmid = {19554352}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Fertilizers ; *Plant Development ; Species Specificity ; Statistics, Nonparametric ; Sweden ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change was simulated by increasing temperature and nutrient availability in an alpine landscape. We conducted a field experiment of BACI-design (before/after control/impact) running for five seasons in two alpine communities (heath and meadow) with the factors temperature (increase of ca. 1.5-3.0 degrees C) and nutrients (5 g N, 5 g P per m(2)) in a fully factorial design in northern Swedish Lapland. The response variables were abundances of plant species and functional types. Plant community responses to the experimental perturbations were investigated, and the responses of plant functional types were examined in comparison to responses at the species level. Nutrient addition, exclusively and in combination with enhanced temperature increase, exerted the most pronounced responses at the species-specific and community levels. The main responses to nutrient addition were increases in graminoids and forbs, whereas deciduous shrubs, evergreen shrubs, bryophytes, and lichens decreased. The two plant communities of heath or meadow showed different vegetation responses to the environmental treatments despite the fact that both communities were located on the same subarctic-alpine site. Furthermore, we showed that the abundance of forbs increased in response to the combined treatment of temperature and nutrient addition in the meadow plant community. Within a single-plant functional type, most species responded similarly to the enhanced treatments although there were exceptions, particularly in the moss and lichen functional types. Plant community structure showed BACI responses in that vegetation dominance relationships in the existing plant functional types changed to varying degrees in all plots, including control plots. Betula nana and lichens increased in the temperature-increased enhancements and in control plots in the heath plant community during the treatment period. The increases in control plots were probably a response to the observed warming during the treatment period in the region.}, }
@article {pmid19551548, year = {2009}, author = {Schulte, PA and Chun, H}, title = {Climate change and occupational safety and health: establishing a preliminary framework.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental hygiene}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {542-554}, doi = {10.1080/15459620903066008}, pmid = {19551548}, issn = {1545-9632}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communicable Diseases/transmission ; Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology ; Humans ; Occupational Exposure ; *Occupational Health ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Ultraviolet Rays ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The relationship between global climate change and occupational safety and health has not been extensively characterized. To begin such an effort, it may be useful to develop a framework for identifying how climate change could affect the workplace; workers; and occupational morbidity, mortality, and injury. This article develops such a framework based on a review of the published scientific literature from 1988-2008 that includes climatic effects, their interaction with occupational hazards, and their manifestation in the working population. Seven categories of climate-related hazards are identified: (1) increased ambient temperature, (2) air pollution, (3) ultraviolet exposure, (4) extreme weather, (5) vector-borne diseases and expanded habitats, (6) industrial transitions and emerging industries; and (7) changes in the built environment. This review indicates that while climate change may result in increasing the prevalence, distribution, and severity of known occupational hazards, there is no evidence of unique or previously unknown hazards. However, such a possibility should not be excluded, since there is potential for interactions of known hazards and new conditions leading to new hazards and risks.}, }
@article {pmid19550166, year = {2009}, author = {MacPherson, CC}, title = {Time for physicians to take action on climate change.}, journal = {Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges}, volume = {84}, number = {7}, pages = {817}, doi = {10.1097/ACM.0b013e3181a8556a}, pmid = {19550166}, issn = {1938-808X}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Grenada ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Physician's Role ; Social Responsibility ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid19549861, year = {2009}, author = {Pelini, SL and Dzurisin, JD and Prior, KM and Williams, CM and Marsico, TD and Sinclair, BJ and Hellmann, JJ}, title = {Translocation experiments with butterflies reveal limits to enhancement of poleward populations under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {27}, pages = {11160-11165}, pmid = {19549861}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Basal Metabolism ; Body Size ; Butterflies/anatomy &amp; histology/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate ; Population Dynamics ; Survival Analysis ; }, abstract = {There is a pressing need to predict how species will change their geographic ranges under climate change. Projections typically assume that temperature is a primary fitness determinant and that populations near the poleward (and upward) range boundary are preadapted to warming. Thus, poleward, peripheral populations will increase with warming, and these increases facilitate poleward range expansions. We tested the assumption that poleward, peripheral populations are enhanced by warming using 2 butterflies (Erynnis propertius and Papilio zelicaon) that co-occur and have contrasting degrees of host specialization and interpopulation genetic differentiation. We performed a reciprocal translocation experiment between central and poleward, peripheral populations in the field and simulated a translocation experiment that included alternate host plants. We found that the performance of both central and peripheral populations of E. propertius were enhanced during the summer months by temperatures characteristic of the range center but that local adaptation of peripheral populations to winter conditions near the range edge could counteract that enhancement. Further, poleward range expansion in this species is prevented by a lack of host plants. In P. zelicaon, the fitness of central and peripheral populations decreased under extreme summer temperatures that occurred in the field at the range center. Performance in this species also was affected by an interaction of temperature and host plant such that host species strongly mediated the fitness of peripheral individuals under differing simulated temperatures. Altogether we have evidence that facilitation of poleward range shifts through enhancement of peripheral populations is unlikely in either study species.}, }
@article {pmid19549423, year = {2009}, author = {Schmier, JK and Ebi, KL}, title = {The impact of climate change and aeroallergens on children's health.}, journal = {Allergy and asthma proceedings}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {229-237}, doi = {10.2500/aap.2009.30.3229}, pmid = {19549423}, issn = {1088-5412}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Air Pollutants/*immunology ; Allergens/*immunology ; Asthma/*immunology ; Child ; *Climate ; Emergency Service, Hospital/*statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Health Policy/trends ; Humans ; Patient Education as Topic/trends ; Pollen/*immunology ; }, abstract = {There are unequivocal data that climate change is occurring and that there are resulting health impacts. Climate change can affect the prevalence and severity of allergic and respiratory disorders through projected increases in the temporal and spatial distribution and concentrations of some aeroallergens. This study was designed to critique and summarize existing knowledge on asthma-related impacts of aeroallergen exposure on children in the United States and to provide suggestions about reducing the negative impacts of climate change through increasing education, adapting current management strategies, and modifying distribution channels. A review and synthesis of published literature was performed. Five studies identified evaluated the relationship between aeroallergens and particular symptoms and six evaluated use of the emergency department and hospital care for asthma. Little is known about the relationship between aeroallergens and particular asthma symptoms. However, overall, there appears to be evidence that weed pollen is significantly associated with asthma exacerbations and use of emergency and hospital services. Activities that can help mitigate the impact of additional climate change-induced respiratory disease include continued research, physician and patient education, optimizing production and distribution, and actively considering the budgetary impact of increased prevalence and severity of respiratory disease. Although more research is needed on aeroallergens and respiratory disease, existing studies suggest that it will be essential to consider the health impacts on children. Strategies to reduce the impacts should be developed and implemented now.}, }
@article {pmid19549219, year = {2009}, author = {Mawdsley, JR and O'Malley, R and Ojima, DS}, title = {A review of climate-change adaptation strategies for wildlife management and biodiversity conservation.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {1080-1089}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01264.x}, pmid = {19549219}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Animals, Wild ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecology ; Environment ; Environmental Monitoring ; Extinction, Biological ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The scientific literature contains numerous descriptions of observed and potential effects of global climate change on species and ecosystems. In response to anticipated effects of climate change, conservation organizations and government agencies are developing "adaptation strategies" to facilitate the adjustment of human society and ecological systems to altered climate regimes. We reviewed the literature and climate-change adaptation plans that have been developed in United States, Canada, England, México, and South Africa and found 16 general adaptation strategies that relate directly to the conservation of biological diversity. These strategies can be grouped into four broad categories: land and water protection and management; direct species management; monitoring and planning; and law and policy. Tools for implementing these strategies are similar or identical to those already in use by conservationists worldwide (land and water conservation, ecological restoration, agrienvironment schemes, species translocation, captive propagation, monitoring, natural resource planning, and legislation/regulation). Although our review indicates natural resource managers already have many tools that can be used to address climate-change effects, managers will likely need to apply these tools in novel and innovative ways to meet the unprecedented challenges posed by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19549217, year = {2009}, author = {Rull, V and Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T and Nogué, S and Huber, O}, title = {Conservation of the unique neotropical vascular flora of the Guayana Highlands in the face of global warming.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {1323-1327}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01266.x}, pmid = {19549217}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Global Warming ; Guyana ; *Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid19548023, year = {2009}, author = {Griffith, B and Scott, JM and Adamcik, R and Ashe, D and Czech, B and Fischman, R and Gonzalez, P and Lawler, J and McGuire, AD and Pidgorna, A}, title = {Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {1043-1052}, pmid = {19548023}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; United States ; }, abstract = {Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.}, }
@article {pmid19545472, year = {2010}, author = {Sulda, H and Coveney, J and Bentley, M}, title = {An investigation of the ways in which public health nutrition policy and practices can address climate change.}, journal = {Public health nutrition}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {304-313}, doi = {10.1017/S1368980009990334}, pmid = {19545472}, issn = {1475-2727}, mesh = {Dietetics/*organization &amp; administration ; Female ; *Food Supply ; *Global Warming ; Health Planning Guidelines ; *Health Policy ; Health Priorities ; Humans ; Interviews as Topic ; Male ; *Nutrition Policy ; Public Health/*trends ; South Australia ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To develop a framework to guide action in the public health nutrition workforce to develop policies and practices addressing factors contributing to climate change.<br><br>DESIGN: Action/consultative research.<br><br>SETTING: Interviews - South Australia, questionnaire - Australia.<br><br>SUBJECTS: Interviews - key informants (n 6) were from various government, academic and non-government positions, invited through email. Questionnaire - participants were members of the public health nutrition workforce (n 186), recruited to the study through emails from public health nutrition contacts for each State in Australia (with the exception of South Australia).<br><br>RESULTS: Support by participants for climate change as a valid role for dietitians and nutritionists was high (78 %). However, climate change was ranked low against other public health nutrition priorities. Support of participants to conduct programmes to address climate change from professional and work organisations was low. The final framework developed included elements of advocacy/lobbying, policy, professional recognition/support, organisational support, knowledge/skills, partnerships and programmes.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: This research demonstrates a need for public health nutrition to address climate change, which requires support by organisations, policy, improved knowledge and increased professional development opportunities.}, }
@article {pmid19544840, year = {2009}, author = {Kelly, VR and Weathers, KC and Lovett, GM and Likens, GE}, title = {Effect of climate change between 1984 and 2007 on precipitation chemistry at a site in northeastern U.S.A.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {10}, pages = {3461-3466}, doi = {10.1021/es8033473}, pmid = {19544840}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Movements ; Cyclonic Storms ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Chemical ; New England ; Rain/*chemistry ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change predictions for the northeastern US call for an increase in tropical storms and a decrease in extra tropical cyclones including continental storms. We ran 24-h back trajectories for each precipitation event that occurred at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in southeastern New York, U.S.A. from 1984 to 2007 and analyzed precipitation chemistry as well as air mass position 24 h prior to the onset of each precipitation event. The results showed an increase in marine precipitation and a slight but statistically insignificant decrease in continental precipitation during the 1984-2007 period. The chemistry of precipitation from the two directions was quite different marine storms were higher in Na4 and Cl- but lower in solutes associated with acid precipitation (H+, SO4(2-), NO3-, and NH4+). Annual mean concentrations of acid precipitation solutes declined for storms from both directions during the period. We used a simple mixing model based on the current rates of increase and decrease of marine and continental precipitation respectively to show that chemical changes in precipitation resulting from the shift in storm tracks are small compared to chemical changes due to emissions reductions.}, }
@article {pmid19544741, year = {2009}, author = {Euskirchen, ES and McGuire, AD and Chapin, FS and Yi, S and Thompson, CC}, title = {Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {19}, number = {4}, pages = {1022-1043}, doi = {10.1890/08-0806.1}, pmid = {19544741}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Alaska ; Arctic Regions ; Carbon/analysis/metabolism ; Cell Respiration ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Nitrogen/metabolism ; *Plant Development ; Plants/metabolism ; Seasons ; Snow ; Soil/analysis ; Sunlight ; }, abstract = {Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003-2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch (Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration (RH) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 +/- 0.23 W x m(-2) x 10 yr(-1) [mean +/- SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (-5.1 +/- 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat absorption (3.3 +/- 1.24 W x m(-2) x 10 yr(-1)) than that associated with increases in vegetation. Through quantifying feedbacks associated with changes in vegetation and those associated with changes in the snow season length, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the climate system.}, }
@article {pmid19541875, year = {2009}, author = {Bond, A and Jones, A and Haynes, R and Tam, M and Denton, E and Ballantyne, M and Curtin, J}, title = {Tackling climate change close to home: mobile breast screening as a model.}, journal = {Journal of health services research &amp; policy}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {165-167}, doi = {10.1258/jhsrp.2009.008154}, pmid = {19541875}, issn = {1355-8196}, mesh = {Breast Neoplasms/diagnosis/*prevention &amp; control ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Services Accessibility ; Humans ; Mammography ; Mass Screening/methods ; Mobile Health Units/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Travel ; United Kingdom ; Vehicle Emissions/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Health services contribute significantly to carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions and, while services in the UK are beginning to address this, the focus has been on reducing energy consumption rather than road transport, a major component of emissions. We aimed to compare the distances travelled by patients attending mobile breast screening clinics compared to the distance they would need to travel if screening services were centralized.<br><br>METHODS: Anonymized postcode records were analysed to determine driving distances potentially saved through attendance at 20 mobile breast screening clinics rather than at two centralized locations. Based on assumptions for the typical car used, the CO(2) emissions were calculated for the current case of decentralized service through mobile clinics compared to a hypothetical case where only centralized services are available over one complete three-year cycle of breast screening invitations.<br><br>RESULTS: The availability of mobile breast screening clinics for the 60,675 women who underwent screening over a three-year cycle led to a return journey distance savings of 1,429,908 km. Taking into account the CO(2) emissions of the tractor unit used for moving the mobile clinics around, this equates to approximately 75 tonnes of CO(2) saved in any one year.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Decentralizing health care delivery can potentially provide substantial reductions in emissions at the same time as improving the patient experience. Thus, the 'care close to home' agenda can simultaneously improve health outcomes and the environment.}, }
@article {pmid19541649, year = {2009}, author = {Harley, CD and Paine, RT}, title = {Contingencies and compounded rare perturbations dictate sudden distributional shifts during periods of gradual climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {27}, pages = {11172-11176}, pmid = {19541649}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Air ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Rhodophyta/physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Washington ; }, abstract = {Ecological responses to climate change may occur gradually with changing conditions, or they may occur rapidly once some threshold or "tipping point" has been reached. Here, we use a high-resolution, 30-year data set on the upper vertical limit of a high intertidal alga to demonstrate that distributional shifts in this species do not keep pace with gradual trends in air temperature or sea level, but rather occur in sudden, discrete steps. These steps occur when unusually warm air temperatures are associated with unusually calm seas and are contingent in the sense that neither atmospheric nor sea conditions by themselves were sufficient to generate the underlying physiological challenge. Shifts in the upper limit did not correlate with large environmental perturbations such as El Niños; rather, they appeared to be associated with stochastic departures from otherwise gradual environmental trends. Our results exemplify the view that multiple environmental factors should be considered when attempting to understand ecological responses to climate change. Furthermore, punctuated responses such as those we have identified urge caution when attempting to infer causal mechanisms and project future distributional shifts using data of limited temporal resolution or scope.}, }
@article {pmid19540163, year = {2009}, author = {Morgan, ER and Wall, R}, title = {Climate change and parasitic disease: farmer mitigation?.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {25}, number = {7}, pages = {308-313}, doi = {10.1016/j.pt.2009.03.012}, pmid = {19540163}, issn = {1471-5007}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry/*methods ; Animals ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Parasitic Diseases, Animal/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Global climate change predictions suggest that far-ranging effects might occur in the population dynamics and distributions of livestock parasites, provoking fears of widespread increases in disease incidence and production loss. However, several biological mechanisms (including increased parasite mortality and more rapid acquisition of immunity), in tandem with changes in husbandry practices (including reproduction, housing, nutrition, breed selection, grazing patterns and other management interventions), might act to mitigate increased parasite development rates, preventing dramatic rises in overall levels of disease. Such changes might, therefore, counteract predicted climate-driven increases in parasite challenge. Optimum mitigation strategies will be highly system specific and depend on detailed understanding of interactions between climate, parasite abundance, host availability and the cues for and economics of farmer intervention.}, }
@article {pmid19537550, year = {2009}, author = {Morin, X and Thuiller, W}, title = {Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {5}, pages = {1301-1313}, doi = {10.1890/08-0134.1}, pmid = {19537550}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Canada ; Computer Simulation ; *Demography ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; Trees/*physiology ; Uncertainty ; United States ; }, abstract = {Obtaining reliable predictions of species range shifts under climate change is a crucial challenge for ecologists and stakeholders. At the continental scale, niche-based models have been widely used in the last 10 years to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions all over the world, although these models do not include any mechanistic relationships. In contrast, species-specific, process-based predictions remain scarce at the continental scale. This is regrettable because to secure relevant and accurate predictions it is always desirable to compare predictions derived from different kinds of models applied independently to the same set of species and using the same raw data. Here we compare predictions of range shifts under climate change scenarios for 2100 derived from niche-based models with those of a process-based model for 15 North American boreal and temperate tree species. A general pattern emerged from our comparisons: niche-based models tend to predict a stronger level of extinction and a greater proportion of colonization than the process-based model. This result likely arises because niche-based models do not take phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation into account. Nevertheless, as the two kinds of models rely on different assumptions, their complementarity is revealed by common findings. Both modeling approaches highlight a major potential limitation on species tracking their climatic niche because of migration constraints and identify similar zones where species extirpation is likely. Such convergent predictions from models built on very different principles provide a useful way to offset uncertainties at the continental scale. This study shows that the use in concert of both approaches with their own caveats and advantages is crucial to obtain more robust results and that comparisons among models are needed in the near future to gain accuracy regarding predictions of range shifts under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19536343, year = {2009}, author = {Nelson, KC and Palmer, MA and Pizzuto, JE and Moglen, GE and Angermeier, PL and Hilderbrand, RH and Dettinger, M and Hayhoe, K}, title = {Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options.}, journal = {The Journal of applied ecology}, volume = {46}, number = {1}, pages = {154-163}, pmid = {19536343}, issn = {0021-8901}, abstract = {Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades.The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions.WE ILLUSTRATE THE MODEL USING PIEDMONT HEADWATER STREAMS IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED OF THE USA, PROJECTING TEN SCENARIOS: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization.Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity.Synthesis and applications. The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems.}, }
@article {pmid19536239, year = {2009}, author = {Victor, DG}, title = {Global warming: why the 2 degrees C goal is a political delusion.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {459}, number = {7249}, pages = {909}, pmid = {19536239}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid19533906, year = {2009}, author = {Shepherd, S}, title = {Climate change. Burning issues.}, journal = {The Health service journal}, volume = {119}, number = {6157}, pages = {30-31}, pmid = {19533906}, issn = {0952-2271}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate Change ; Commerce ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Environmental Monitoring ; State Medicine/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid19531614, year = {2009}, author = {Bharath, AK and Turner, RJ}, title = {Impact of climate change on skin cancer.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine}, volume = {102}, number = {6}, pages = {215-218}, pmid = {19531614}, issn = {1758-1095}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; *Climate ; Female ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Male ; *Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced ; Ozone ; Skin/radiation effects ; Skin Neoplasms/*etiology ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; Young Adult ; }, }
@article {pmid19530408, year = {2009}, author = {Atkinson, CT and LaPointe, DA}, title = {Introduced avian diseases, climate change, and the future of Hawaiian honeycreepers.}, journal = {Journal of avian medicine and surgery}, volume = {23}, number = {1}, pages = {53-63}, doi = {10.1647/2008-059.1}, pmid = {19530408}, issn = {1082-6742}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Avipoxvirus ; Bird Diseases/*epidemiology ; Birds ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hawaii/epidemiology ; Malaria/epidemiology/veterinary ; *Passeriformes ; Poxviridae Infections/epidemiology/veterinary ; }, }
@article {pmid19524770, year = {2009}, author = {Vickers, D and Waterston, T}, title = {Climate change and the RCPCH.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {373}, number = {9680}, pages = {2022}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61103-X}, pmid = {19524770}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Environmental Health/*organization &amp; administration ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Pediatrics/organization &amp; administration ; Societies, Medical/*organization &amp; administration ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid19520957, year = {2009}, author = {Severinghaus, JP and Beaudette, R and Headly, MA and Taylor, K and Brook, EJ}, title = {Oxygen-18 of O2 records the impact of abrupt climate change on the terrestrial biosphere.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {324}, number = {5933}, pages = {1431-1434}, doi = {10.1126/science.1169473}, pmid = {19520957}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Climatic Processes ; *Ecosystem ; Ice Cover/*chemistry ; Oxygen/*analysis ; Oxygen Isotopes/*analysis ; Photosynthesis ; Rain ; Seawater/chemistry ; Time ; }, abstract = {Photosynthesis and respiration occur widely on Earth's surface, and the 18O/16O ratio of the oxygen produced and consumed varies with climatic conditions. As a consequence, the history of climate is reflected in the deviation of the 18O/16O of air (delta18Oatm) from seawater delta18O (known as the Dole effect). We report variations in delta18Oatm over the past 60,000 years related to Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events, two modes of abrupt climate change observed during the last ice age. Correlations with cave records support the hypothesis that the Dole effect is primarily governed by the strength of the Asian and North African monsoons and confirm that widespread changes in low-latitude terrestrial rainfall accompanied abrupt climate change. The rapid delta18Oatm changes can also be used to synchronize ice records by providing global time markers.}, }
@article {pmid19520804, year = {2009}, author = {La Sorte, FA and Lee, TM and Wilman, H and Jetz, W}, title = {Disparities between observed and predicted impacts of climate change on winter bird assemblages.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {276}, number = {1670}, pages = {3167-3174}, pmid = {19520804}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Birds/*physiology ; Body Size ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Linear Models ; Longitudinal Studies ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding how climate change affects the structure and function of communities is critical for gauging its full impact on biodiversity. To date, community-level changes have been poorly documented, owing, in part, to the paucity of long-term datasets. To circumvent this, the use of 'space-for-time' substitution--the forecasting of temporal trends from spatial climatic gradients--has increasingly been adopted, often with little empirical support. Here we examine changes from 1975 to 2001 in three community attributes (species richness, body mass and occupancy) for 404 assemblages of terrestrial winter avifauna in North America containing a total of 227 species. We examine the accuracy of space-for-time substitution and assess causal associations between community attributes and observed changes in annual temperature using a longitudinal study design. Annual temperature and all three community attributes increased over time. The trends for the three community attributes differed significantly from the spatially derived predictions, although richness showed broad congruence. Correlations with trends in temperature were found with richness and body mass. In the face of rapid climate change, applying space-for-time substitution as a predictive tool could be problematic with communities developing patterns not reflected by spatial ecological associations.}, }
@article {pmid19517928, year = {2009}, author = {Schwaiger, K and Bauer, J}, title = {[Epidemiology of emerging and resurging vector-borne diseases with special attention to climate change in Germany (review)].}, journal = {Berliner und Munchener tierarztliche Wochenschrift}, volume = {122}, number = {5-6}, pages = {141-160}, pmid = {19517928}, issn = {0005-9366}, mesh = {Animals ; *Disease Vectors ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/epidemiology ; Europe/epidemiology ; Germany/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Infections/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Israel/epidemiology ; Lyme Disease/epidemiology ; Virus Diseases/epidemiology ; West Nile Fever/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Vector-borne diseases gained importance in Germany during the past years. Borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis are already well-known infectious diseases, transmitted by Ixodes ricinus. But reports on severe diseases, formerly only known as so-called "travel sickness" from tropical countries, markedly increased in the recent years. Several climate models predict a global warming of 1.4 degrees C up to 5.8 degrees C until the year 2100, and as climate-typical temperature barriers restrict the distribution of the vectors, especially arthropod-borne diseases are strongly influenced by the climate. Due to the growing clinical importance, the present state of information concerning the epidemiological situation of all known vector-borne diseases in Germany is summarized in this review.}, }
@article {pmid19477845, year = {2009}, author = {Galvão, LA and Edwards, S and Corvalan, C and Fortune, K and Akerman, M}, title = {Climate change and social determinants of health: two interlinked agendas.}, journal = {Global health promotion}, volume = {Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {81-84}, doi = {10.1177/1757975909103761}, pmid = {19477845}, issn = {1757-9759}, mesh = {*Environmental Health ; Global Health ; *Global Warming ; Health Policy ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; *Prejudice ; *Public Health ; *Social Environment ; *Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid19477843, year = {2009}, author = {Odingo, RS}, title = {The global impacts of climate change on human health.}, journal = {Global health promotion}, volume = {Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {68-71}, doi = {10.1177/1757975909103759}, pmid = {19477843}, issn = {1757-9759}, mesh = {Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; *Global Warming ; *Health Promotion ; Health Status ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid19516338, year = {2009}, author = {Matthews, HD and Gillett, NP and Stott, PA and Zickfeld, K}, title = {The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {459}, number = {7248}, pages = {829-832}, pmid = {19516338}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Feedback ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; *Temperature ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Climate-carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO(2) emitted does not depend on the background CO(2) concentration; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO(2) is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon-climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0-2.1 degrees C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate-carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO(2) emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate-carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate-carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO(2)-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.}, }
@article {pmid19505929, year = {2009}, author = {Craufurd, PQ and Wheeler, TR}, title = {Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {60}, number = {9}, pages = {2529-2539}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erp196}, pmid = {19505929}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {*Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Flowers/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Photoperiod ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Crop production is inherently sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature is a major determinant of the rate of plant development and, under climate change, warmer temperatures that shorten development stages of determinate crops will most probably reduce the yield of a given variety. Earlier crop flowering and maturity have been observed and documented in recent decades, and these are often associated with warmer (spring) temperatures. However, farm management practices have also changed and the attribution of observed changes in phenology to climate change per se is difficult. Increases in atmospheric [CO(2)] often advance the time of flowering by a few days, but measurements in FACE (free air CO(2) enrichment) field-based experiments suggest that elevated [CO(2)] has little or no effect on the rate of development other than small advances in development associated with a warmer canopy temperature. The rate of development (inverse of the duration from sowing to flowering) is largely determined by responses to temperature and photoperiod, and the effects of temperature and of photoperiod at optimum and suboptimum temperatures can be quantified and predicted. However, responses to temperature, and more particularly photoperiod, at supraoptimal temperature are not well understood. Analysis of a comprehensive data set of time to tassel initiation in maize (Zea mays) with a wide range of photoperiods above and below the optimum suggests that photoperiod modulates the negative effects of temperature above the optimum. A simulation analysis of the effects of prescribed increases in temperature (0-6 degrees C in +1 degree C steps) and temperature variability (0% and +50%) on days to tassel initiation showed that tassel initiation occurs later, and variability was increased, as the temperature exceeds the optimum in models both with and without photoperiod sensitivity. However, the inclusion of photoperiod sensitivity above the optimum temperature resulted in a higher apparent optimum temperature and less variability in the time of tassel initiation. Given the importance of changes in plant development for crop yield under climate change, the effects of photoperiod and temperature on development rates above the optimum temperature clearly merit further research, and some of the knowledge gaps are identified herein.}, }
@article {pmid19505713, year = {2009}, author = {Johnson, AC and Acreman, MC and Dunbar, MJ and Feist, SW and Giacomello, AM and Gozlan, RE and Hinsley, SA and Ibbotson, AT and Jarvie, HP and Jones, JI and Longshaw, M and Maberly, SC and Marsh, TJ and Neal, C and Newman, JR and Nunn, MA and Pickup, RW and Reynard, NS and Sullivan, CA and Sumpter, JP and Williams, RJ}, title = {The British river of the future: how climate change and human activity might affect two contrasting river ecosystems in England.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {407}, number = {17}, pages = {4787-4798}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.05.018}, pmid = {19505713}, issn = {1879-1026}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Ecosystem ; England ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The possible effects of changing climate on a southern and a north-eastern English river (the Thames and the Yorkshire Ouse, respectively) were examined in relation to water and ecological quality throughout the food web. The CLASSIC hydrological model, driven by output from the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3), based on IPCC low and high CO(2) emission scenarios for 2080 were used as the basis for the analysis. Compared to current conditions, the CLASSIC model predicted lower flows for both rivers, in all seasons except winter. Such an outcome would lead to longer residence times (by up to a month in the Thames), with nutrient, organic and biological contaminant concentrations elevated by 70-100% pro-rata, assuming sewage treatment effectiveness remains unchanged. Greater opportunities for phytoplankton growth will arise, and this may be significant in the Thames. Warmer winters and milder springs will favour riverine birds and increase the recruitment of many coarse fish species. However, warm, slow-flowing, shallower water would increase the incidence of fish diseases. These changing conditions would make southern UK rivers in general a less favourable habitat for some species of fish, such as the Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Accidental or deliberate, introductions of alien macrophytes and fish may change the range of species in the rivers. In some areas, it is possible that a concurrence of different pressures may give rise to the temporary loss of ecosystem services, such as providing acceptable quality water for humans and industry. An increasing demand for water in southern England due to an expanding population, a possibly reduced flow due to climate change, together with the Water Framework Directive obligation to maintain water quality, will put extreme pressure on river ecosystems, such as the Thames.}, }
@article {pmid19496955, year = {2009}, author = {Qiu, YX and Sun, Y and Zhang, XP and Lee, J and Fu, CX and Comes, HP}, title = {Molecular phylogeography of East Asian Kirengeshoma (Hydrangeaceae) in relation to quaternary climate change and landbridge configurations.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {183}, number = {2}, pages = {480-495}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2009.02876.x}, pmid = {19496955}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Base Sequence ; China ; *Climate ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; Asia, Eastern ; *Geography ; Haplotypes ; Hydrangeaceae/*genetics ; Japan ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Molecular Sequence Data ; *Phylogeny ; Polymorphism, Genetic ; Population Dynamics ; Principal Component Analysis ; }, abstract = {Kirengeshoma comprises two species inhabiting warm temperate-deciduous forests in East China/South Japan (Kirengeshoma palmata) and South Korea (Kirengeshoma koreana). A survey of chloroplast (cp) DNA and inter-simple sequence repeats (ISSRs) variation in Kirengeshoma was carried out to determine the population history of a plant taxon around the East China Sea (ECS). CpDNA and ISSRs revealed lower genetic divergence between China and Japan relative to the other contrasts, in line with intrageneric classification. Molecular dating suggests that K. koreana diverged at the Plio-Pleistocene boundary from the Japanese populations, whereas the latter migrated into China during the early-to-mid Pleistocene via the ECS basin. Vicariant segregation of Chinese and Japanese populations likely occurred during the mid-Pleistocene. Mismatch distributions and neutrality tests indicated that Chinese populations expanded their range during the Late Pleistocene, probably during a cold period, whereas those from Japan showed no significant population growth. We conclude that the current distribution and differentiation of components of presently isolated warm temperate-deciduous forests in China, Japan and Korea likely resulted from a combination of relatively ancient vicariant and immigration events, and those from Japan were particularly sensitive to range fragmentation and long-term refugial isolation throughout the Late Pleistocene.}, }
@article {pmid19493947, year = {2009}, author = {Cole, A}, title = {Annual deaths from climate change could reach half a million by 2030.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {338}, number = {}, pages = {b2227}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.b2227}, pmid = {19493947}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Cause of Death/trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; Humans ; Mortality/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid19492043, year = {2009}, author = {DeSantis, LR and Feranec, RS and MacFadden, BJ}, title = {Effects of global warming on ancient mammalian communities and their environments.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {4}, number = {6}, pages = {e5750}, pmid = {19492043}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; Dental Enamel/*pathology ; Diet ; *Ecosystem ; *Environment ; Fossils ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Mammals ; Oxygen Isotopes ; Paleontology/methods ; Phylogeny ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Current global warming affects the composition and dynamics of mammalian communities and can increase extinction risk; however, long-term effects of warming on mammals are less understood. Dietary reconstructions inferred from stable isotopes of fossil herbivorous mammalian tooth enamel document environmental and climatic changes in ancient ecosystems, including C(3)/C(4) transitions and relative seasonality.<br><br>Here, we use stable carbon and oxygen isotopes preserved in fossil teeth to document the magnitude of mammalian dietary shifts and ancient floral change during geologically documented glacial and interglacial periods during the Pliocene (approximately 1.9 million years ago) and Pleistocene (approximately 1.3 million years ago) in Florida. Stable isotope data demonstrate increased aridity, increased C(4) grass consumption, inter-faunal dietary partitioning, increased isotopic niche breadth of mixed feeders, niche partitioning of phylogenetically similar taxa, and differences in relative seasonality with warming.<br><br>CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our data show that global warming resulted in dramatic vegetation and dietary changes even at lower latitudes (approximately 28 degrees N). Our results also question the use of models that predict the long term decline and extinction of species based on the assumption that niches are conserved over time. These findings have immediate relevance to clarifying possible biotic responses to current global warming in modern ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid19491175, year = {2009}, author = {Voelker, R}, title = {Climate change puts children in jeopardy.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {301}, number = {21}, pages = {2197-2199}, doi = {10.1001/jama.2009.800}, pmid = {19491175}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {Child ; *Climate ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Environmental Health ; Global Health ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Pediatrics ; Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid19484138, year = {2009}, author = {Resnik, DB}, title = {Bioethics and Global Climate Change.}, journal = {Bioethics forum}, volume = {39}, number = {3}, pages = {1}, pmid = {19484138}, issn = {1065-7274}, support = {Z99 ES999999/ImNIH/Intramural NIH HHS/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid19480780, year = {2009}, author = {Iniesta Arandia, N and Ríos Blanco, JJ and Fernández Capitán, MC and Barbado Hernández, FJ}, title = {[Climate change: new diseases for a new climate?].}, journal = {Revista clinica espanola}, volume = {209}, number = {5}, pages = {234-240}, doi = {10.1016/s0014-2565(09)71240-8}, pmid = {19480780}, issn = {0014-2565}, mesh = {Chronic Disease ; *Climate ; Disease/*etiology ; Humans ; Infections/epidemiology/etiology ; }, abstract = {Since the beginning of the 20th century, there has been a progressive increase in the Earth's temperature. This warming of the Earth's surface is largely due to the so-called green house effect that can alter the natural behavior of some natural phenomena such as El Niño. Several articles on climate change have been published recently. Some authors have raised the question of whether these changes could affect human health or even lead to the reappearance of some eradicated diseases. This report focuses on the changes seen in health up to date and their probable causes. Some changes in energy emission levels have been proposed in order to restrain this trend.}, }
@article {pmid19478979, year = {2009}, author = {Beggs, PJ}, title = {Plant food allergens: another climate change-public health link.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {5}, pages = {A191}, pmid = {19478979}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {Allergens/*adverse effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Plants/*adverse effects ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid19468132, year = {2009}, author = {Mehta, A}, title = {Physicians' contribution to climate change.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {180}, number = {11}, pages = {1176}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.090769}, pmid = {19468132}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {Environmental Health/*methods ; Family Practice/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; *Physicians, Family ; Practice Patterns, Physicians'/*standards ; }, }
@article {pmid19467476, year = {2009}, author = {Semenza, JC and Menne, B}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases in Europe.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {365-375}, doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70104-5}, pmid = {19467476}, issn = {1474-4457}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; Disease Vectors ; Europe/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Population Surveillance/*methods ; }, abstract = {Concerted action is needed to address public health issues raised by climate change. In this Review we discuss infections acquired through various routes (arthropod vector, rodent, water, food, and air) in view of a changing climate in Europe. Based on an extensive review of published work and expert workshops, we present an assessment of the infectious disease challenges: incidence, prevalence, and distribution are projected to shift in a changing environment. Due to the high level of uncertainty on the rate of climate change and its impact on infectious diseases, we propose to mount a proactive public health response by building an integrated network for environmental and epidemiological data. This network would have the capacity to connect epidemic intelligence and infectious disease surveillance with meteorological, entomological, water quality, remote sensing, and other data, for multivariate analyses and predictions. Insights from these analyses could then guide adaptation strategies and protect population health from impending threats related to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19462191, year = {2009}, author = {Porcal, P and Koprivnjak, JF and Molot, LA and Dillon, PJ}, title = {Humic substances-part 7: the biogeochemistry of dissolved organic carbon and its interactions with climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {714-726}, pmid = {19462191}, issn = {1614-7499}, mesh = {Carbon/*chemistry ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humic Substances/*analysis ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND, AIM, AND SCOPE: Dissolved organic matter, measured as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), is an important component of aquatic ecosystems and of the global carbon cycle. It is known that changes in DOC quality and quantity are likely to have ecological repercussions. This review has four goals: (1) to discuss potential mechanisms responsible for recent changes in aquatic DOC concentrations; (2) to provide a comprehensive overview of the interactions between DOC, nutrients, and trace metals in mainly boreal environments; (3) to explore the impact of climate change on DOC and the subsequent effects on nutrients and trace metals; and (4) to explore the potential impact of DOC cycling on climate change.<br><br>MAIN FEATURES: We review recent research on the mechanisms responsible for recent changes in aquatic DOC concentrations, DOC interactions with trace metals, N, and P, and on the possible impacts of climate change on DOC in mainly boreal lakes. We then speculate on how climate change may affect DOC export and in-lake processing and how these changes might alter nutrient and metal export and processing. Furthermore, the potential impacts of changing DOC cycling patterns on climate change are examined.<br><br>RESULTS: It has been noted that DOC concentrations in lake and stream waters have increased during the last 30 years across much of Europe and North America. The potential reasons for this increase include increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentration, climate warming, continued N deposition, decreased sulfate deposition, and hydrological changes due to increased precipitation, droughts, and land use changes. Any change in DOC concentrations and properties in lakes and streams will also impact the acid-base chemistry of these waters and, presumably, the biological, chemical, and photochemical reactions taking place. For example, the interaction of trace metals with DOC may be significantly altered by climate change as organically complexed metals such as Cu, Fe, and Al are released during photo-oxidation of DOC. The production and loss of DOC as CO(2) from boreal lakes may also be affected by changing climate. Climate change is unlikely to be uniform spatially with some regions becoming wetter while others become drier. As a result, rates of change in DOC export and concentrations will vary regionally and the changes may be non-linear.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate change models predict that higher temperatures are likely to occur over most of the boreal forests in North America, Europe, and Asia over the next century. Climate change is also expected to affect the severity and frequency of storm and drought events. Two general climate scenarios emerge with which to examine possible DOC trends: warmer and wetter or warmer and drier. Increasing temperature and hydrological changes (specifically, runoff) are likely to lead to changes in the quality and quantity of DOC export from terrestrial sources to rivers and lakes as well as changes in DOC processing rates in lakes. This will alter the quality and concentrations of DOC and its constituents as well as its interactions with trace metals and the availability of nutrients. In addition, export rates of nutrients and metals will also change in response to changing runoff. Processing of DOC within lakes may impact climate depending on the extent to which DOC is mineralized to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and evaded to the atmosphere or settles as particulate organic carbon (POC) to bottom sediments and thereby remaining in the lake. The partitioning of DOC between sediments and the atmosphere is a function of pH. Decreased DOC concentrations may also limit the burial of sulfate, as FeS, in lake sediments, thereby contributing acidity to the water by increasing the formation of H(2)S. Under a warmer and drier scenario, if lake water levels fall, previously stored organic sediments may be exposed to greater aeration which would lead to greater CO(2) evasion to the atmosphere. The interaction of trace metals with DOC may be significantly altered by climate change. Iron enhances the formation of POC during irradiation of lake water with UV light and therefore may be an important pathway for transfer of allochthonous DOC to the sediments. Therefore, changing Fe/DOC ratios could affect POC formation rates. If climate change results in altered DOC chemistry (e.g., fewer and/or weaker binding sites) more trace metals could be present in their toxic and bioavailable forms. The availability of nutrients may be significantly altered by climate change. Decreased DOC concentrations in lakes may result in increased Fe colloid formation and co-incident loss of adsorbable P from the water column.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Climate change expressed as changes in runoff and temperature will likely result in changes in aquatic DOC quality and concentration with concomitant effects on trace metals and nutrients. Changes in the quality and concentration of DOC have implications for acid-base chemistry and for the speciation and bioavailability of certain trace metals and nutrients. Moreover, changes in DOC, metals, and nutrients are likely to drive changes in rates of C evasion and storage in lake sediments.<br><br>The key controls on allochthonous DOC quality, quantity, and catchment export in response to climate change are still not fully understood. More detailed knowledge of these processes is required so that changes in DOC and its interactions with nutrients and trace metals can be better predicted based on changes caused by changing climate. More studies are needed concerning the effects of trace metals on DOC, the effects of changing DOC quality and quantity on trace metals and nutrients, and how runoff and temperature-related changes in DOC export affect metal and nutrient export to rivers and lakes.}, }
@article {pmid19459365, year = {2009}, author = {Yao, YB and Zhang, XY and Wang, RY and An, HY}, title = {[Responses of subalpine meadow Poa botryoides to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {285-292}, pmid = {19459365}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Altitude ; China ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Based on the field plot observation and related meteorological data, the effects of climate change in 1985-2005 on the growth and development of subalpine meadow Poa botryoides in Maqu County of Gansu Province were analyzed. The results showed that during study period, the annual precipitation in the Maqu County had a decreasing trend, with a rate of -9.895 mm x (10 a)(-1) and a cycle of 3 years, while the annual air temperature had an increasing trend, with a rate of 0.341 degrees C x (10 a)(-1). The aridity index of P. botryoides in growth season had an obvious increasing trend, with a rate of 0.036 x (10 a)(-1), and the tendency was more markedly from the beginning of the 1990s to 2005. The period from reviving to ripeness of P. botryoides was 140-150 d, and the requirements of accumulated temperature above 0 degree C, precipitation, and sunshine duration in this period were 1000 degrees C-1200 degrees C, 400-450 mm, and 1000-1100 h, respectively. The growth rate of P. botryoides turned to higher at 54 d after reviving, reached the highest at 80 d after reviving, and became lower at 104 d after reviving. Under the effects of climate warming, the phenophase of P. botryoides was advanced by 15 d x (10 a)(-1) at heading stage, 7-8 d x (10 a)(-1) at flowering stage, 8-9 d x (10 a)(-1) at ripeness stage, and 3 d x (10 a)(-1) at withering stage. Climate change made the P. botryoides yield in study area have greater variation and higher unsteadiness.}, }
@article {pmid19454744, year = {2009}, author = {Mayor, S}, title = {Climate change will have greatest health impact on poor, report warns.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {338}, number = {}, pages = {b2024}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.b2024}, pmid = {19454744}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; Humans ; *Poverty ; }, }
@article {pmid19449688, year = {2009}, author = {Lafferty, KD}, title = {Calling for an ecological approach to studying climate change and infectious diseases.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {4}, pages = {932-933}, doi = {10.1890/08-1767.1}, pmid = {19449688}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Humans ; Research ; }, }
@article {pmid19449687, year = {2009}, author = {Randolph, SE}, title = {Perspectives on climate change impacts on infectious diseases.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {4}, pages = {927-931}, doi = {10.1890/08-0506.1}, pmid = {19449687}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Disease Vectors ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; }, }
@article {pmid19449685, year = {2009}, author = {Harvell, D and Altizer, S and Cattadori, IM and Harrington, L and Weil, E}, title = {Climate change and wildlife diseases: when does the host matter the most?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {4}, pages = {912-920}, doi = {10.1890/08-0616.1}, pmid = {19449685}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology ; Animals ; *Animals, Wild ; Demography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid19449683, year = {2009}, author = {Ostfeld, RS}, title = {Climate change and the distribution and intensity of infectious diseases.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {4}, pages = {903-905}, doi = {10.1890/08-0659.1}, pmid = {19449683}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Demography ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid19449682, year = {2009}, author = {Wilson, K}, title = {Climate change and the spread of infectious ideas.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {4}, pages = {901-902}, doi = {10.1890/08-2027.1}, pmid = {19449682}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid19449681, year = {2009}, author = {Lafferty, KD}, title = {The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {4}, pages = {888-900}, doi = {10.1890/08-0079.1}, pmid = {19449681}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The projected global increase in the distribution and prevalence of infectious diseases with climate change suggests a pending societal crisis. The subject is increasingly attracting the attention of health professionals and climate-change scientists, particularly with respect to malaria and other vector-transmitted human diseases. The result has been the emergence of a crisis discipline, reminiscent of the early phases of conservation biology. Latitudinal, altitudinal, seasonal, and interannual associations between climate and disease along with historical and experimental evidence suggest that climate, along with many other factors, can affect infectious diseases in a nonlinear fashion. However, although the globe is significantly warmer than it was a century ago, there is little evidence that climate change has already favored infectious diseases. While initial projections suggested dramatic future increases in the geographic range of infectious diseases, recent models predict range shifts in disease distributions, with little net increase in area. Many factors can affect infectious disease, and some may overshadow the effects of climate.}, }
@article {pmid19449573, year = {2009}, author = {Li, XH and Han, F and Zhang, CH and Na, RS and Liu, PT}, title = {[Influence of climate change on mosaic landscape of sand land-wetland in middle-east Inner Mongolia].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {105-112}, pmid = {19449573}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Desert Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Satellite Communications ; Silicon Dioxide/analysis ; *Weather ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {By using wavelet transform and remote sensing techniques, the influence of climate change on the unique mosaic landscape of sand land-wetland in middle-east Inner Mongolia in 1961 -2005 was studied. The results showed that in 1961-2005, the annual air temperature in study area had an increment of 0.32 degrees C x (10 a)(-1), the annual precipitation fluctuated with a cycle of 30 years and of 15 years, and the annual average wind speed decreased by 0.26 m x s(-1) x (10 a)(-1). In the southeast part of study area, which located in the places between Hunshandake sand land and Keerqin Deserts, there was a district, in which, the climatic characteristics did not change evidently. Until 2010, the study area would still have an increasing air temperature, lesser precipitation, and decreasing wind speed. Under the influence of warming and drying, the total area of Hunshandake sand land and the wetland around reduced year after year, and, with the vegetation degradation on sand land, wetland shrunk and lake dried up, moving sand land enlarged ceaselessly, while immovable and semi-moving sand lands reduced obviously.}, }
@article {pmid19449571, year = {2009}, author = {Jiang, LX and Li, S and Ji, YH and Zhu, HX and Yan, P and Wang, P and Wang, CY and Han, JJ}, title = {[Responses of soil humidity on Songnen Plain to climate change in 1980-2005].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {91-97}, pmid = {19449571}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Hot Temperature ; *Humidity ; Rain ; Soil/*analysis ; Water/analysis ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Based on the 1980-2005 observation data of ten-day soil humidity, monthly air temperature, and monthly precipitation during crop growth period (from May to September) from 16 agrometeorological stations on Songnen Plain, the spatiotemporal variation of surface soil (0-30 cm) humidity and its responses to the air temperature and precipitation in study area were analyzed by using statistical method. The results showed that on Songnen Plain, the surface soil humidity during crop growth period in 1980-2005 had a decreasing trend, and tended to be aridified, especially in the west and south parts of the Plain. Before the 1990s, the surface soil on the Plain was relatively humid, but thereafter, the humidity kept decreasing, and partial dryness occurred. In the study period, the mean air temperature during crop growth period had a periodical increase before 1992, with a small fluctuation in a cycle of 6 years, but increased obviously after then. The precipitation during crop growth period had a larger inter-annual variation, with a cycle of 4-5 years. The surface soil humidity during crop growth period was significantly negatively correlated to air temperature and positively correlated to precipitation. Both air temperature and precipitation were the main climatic factors affecting the variation of surface soil humidity on Songnen Plain.}, }
@article {pmid19449568, year = {2009}, author = {Wang, B and Gao, P and Guo, H and Leng, L}, title = {[Responses of tree-ring width of Cinnamomum camphora to climate change in Dagangshan forest area of Jiangxi Province].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {71-76}, pmid = {19449568}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Cinnamomum camphora/*anatomy &amp; histology/*growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; Plant Stems/anatomy &amp; histology/*growth &amp; development ; Rain ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {By using ARSTAN software to wipe off the growth trend of tree-ring width and transform the series into index form, the tree chronology of Cinnamomum camphora in Dagangshan forest area of Jiangxi Province was built, and the responses of the tree-ring width of C. camphora to climate change in study area were studied. The results showed that the built tree chronology included abundant environmental climatic information, which could be used in dendrochronological research. In study area, the tree-ring width of C. camphora was positively correlated to the mean monthly temperature in growth season, especially to that of April and May (P < 0.05). The correlation of the tree-ring width with monthly precipitation was more complicated, being significant negative with the precipitation in current May (P < 0.01) and last December (P < 0.05), while significant positive with that in current June and August (P < 0.05). The tree-ring width had a good correlation with the humidity index of current May, June, August, and September. Temperature and precipitation had obvious integrative effects on the tree-ring width of C. camphora in Dagangshan forest area of Jiangxi Province.}, }
@article {pmid19449058, year = {2009}, author = {Baron, JS and Gunderson, L and Allen, CD and Fleishman, E and McKenzie, D and Meyerson, LA and Oropeza, J and Stephenson, N}, title = {Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {1033-1042}, pmid = {19449058}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; United States ; }, abstract = {Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.}, }
@article {pmid19448315, year = {2009}, author = {Vanham, D and Fleischhacker, E and Rauch, W}, title = {Impact of snowmaking on alpine water resources management under present and climate change conditions.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {59}, number = {9}, pages = {1793-1801}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2009.211}, pmid = {19448315}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Austria ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Geography ; *Snow ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Owing to less natural snow reliability as a result of climate change on the one hand, and the demand of higher standards by winter tourists on the other hand, the production of artificial snow in ski resorts has increased substantially during the last 20 years and is likely to increase further in future. Little research has been conducted on the impact of snowmaking as a water demand stakeholder on a regional water balance. In this paper, a regional water balance (water demand-water resources) is analysed for the greater Kitzbueheler Region in the Austrian Alps, for the current situation and a future climate change scenario (2 degrees C warming). For this temperature rise a significant reduction in natural snow cover duration and snow accumulation is predicted, an effect that increases with lower altitudes and differs between the winter months. Due to the shortening of the winter season, a change in seasonality of river flows and available water resources (ground and surface water) occurs. Both increase in winter, and decrease in spring. The water demand for improvement snowmaking increases, especially in the month of March. However, December proved to be the critical month due to the large amounts of water required for base snowmaking both now and in future. These results stress the necessity of reservoir storage for base snowmaking on a regional level. Water availability during other months but winter is sufficient to fill these reservoirs.}, }
@article {pmid19447817, year = {2010}, author = {Butterworth, MH and Semenov, MA and Barnes, A and Moran, D and West, JS and Fitt, BD}, title = {North-South divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society, Interface}, volume = {7}, number = {42}, pages = {123-130}, pmid = {19447817}, issn = {1742-5662}, support = {BB/D015200/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BB/E001610/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BBS/E/C/00004693/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BBS/E/C/00004938/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climate Change ; Computer Simulation ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Ecosystem ; England ; *Models, Biological ; Scotland ; }, abstract = {Effects of climate change on productivity of agricultural crops in relation to diseases that attack them are difficult to predict because they are complex and nonlinear. To investigate these crop-disease-climate interactions, UKCIP02 scenarios predicting UK temperature and rainfall under high- and low-CO(2) emission scenarios for the 2020s and 2050s were combined with a crop-simulation model predicting yield of fungicide-treated winter oilseed rape and with a weather-based regression model predicting severity of phoma stem canker epidemics. The combination of climate scenarios and crop model predicted that climate change will increase yield of fungicide-treated oilseed rape crops in Scotland by up to 0.5 t ha(-1) (15%). In contrast, in southern England the combination of climate scenarios, crop, disease and yield loss models predicted that climate change will increase yield losses from phoma stem canker epidemics to up to 50 per cent (1.5 t ha(-1)) and greatly decrease yield of untreated winter oilseed rape. The size of losses is predicted to be greater for winter oilseed rape cultivars that are susceptible than for those that are resistant to the phoma stem canker pathogen Leptosphaeria maculans. Such predictions illustrate the unexpected, contrasting impacts of aspects of climate change on crop-disease interactions in agricultural systems in different regions.}, }
@article {pmid19447250, year = {2009}, author = {Costello, A and Abbas, M and Allen, A and Ball, S and Bell, S and Bellamy, R and Friel, S and Groce, N and Johnson, A and Kett, M and Lee, M and Levy, C and Maslin, M and McCoy, D and McGuire, B and Montgomery, H and Napier, D and Pagel, C and Patel, J and de Oliveira, JA and Redclift, N and Rees, H and Rogger, D and Scott, J and Stephenson, J and Twigg, J and Wolff, J and Patterson, C}, title = {Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {373}, number = {9676}, pages = {1693-1733}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60935-1}, pmid = {19447250}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Advisory Committees ; Disasters ; Emigration and Immigration ; *Environmental Health ; Food Supply ; Forecasting ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Planning Guidelines ; Health Policy ; Health Services Needs and Demand/*organization &amp; administration ; Health Status Disparities ; Housing ; Humans ; Morbidity ; Mortality ; Poverty ; Public Health ; Sanitation ; Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid19447244, year = {2009}, author = {Costello, A}, title = {Anthony Costello: making climate change part of global health. Interview by Mark Honigsbaum.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {373}, number = {9676}, pages = {1669}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60929-6}, pmid = {19447244}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Academies and Institutes/*organization &amp; administration ; *Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; London ; Physician Executives/organization &amp; administration/*psychology ; Universities/organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid19447242, year = {2009}, author = {Campbell-Lendrum, D and Bertollini, R and Neira, M and Ebi, K and McMichael, A}, title = {Health and climate change: a roadmap for applied research.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {373}, number = {9676}, pages = {1663-1665}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60926-0}, pmid = {19447242}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Decision Support Techniques ; *Environmental Health ; Evidence-Based Practice/*organization &amp; administration ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Humans ; Population Surveillance ; Research/*organization &amp; administration ; Risk Assessment ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid19447238, year = {2009}, author = {}, title = {A Commission on climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {373}, number = {9676}, pages = {1659}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60922-3}, pmid = {19447238}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Advisory Committees/organization &amp; administration ; Forecasting ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Planning Guidelines ; Humans ; London ; Needs Assessment/organization &amp; administration ; Periodicals as Topic ; Public Health ; Universities ; }, }
@article {pmid19444615, year = {2009}, author = {Ramin, B and Svoboda, T}, title = {Health of the homeless and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {86}, number = {4}, pages = {654-664}, pmid = {19444615}, issn = {1468-2869}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Climate ; Floods ; *Health Status ; *Ill-Housed Persons ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; United States ; Urban Population ; *Vulnerable Populations ; West Nile Fever/epidemiology ; West Nile virus ; }, abstract = {The homeless are amongst the most vulnerable groups in developed regions, suffering from high rates of poorly controlled chronic disease, smoking, respiratory conditions, and mental illness, all of which render them vulnerable to new and resurgent disease processes associated with climate change. To date, there have been no papers reviewing the impacts of climate change on the homeless population. This paper provides a framework for understanding the nature of such an impact. We review four pathways: increased heat waves, increased air pollution, increased severity of floods and storms, and the changing distribution of West Nile Virus. We emphasize the need for further debate and research in this field.}, }
@article {pmid19443872, year = {2010}, author = {Shahid, S}, title = {Probable impacts of climate change on public health in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {310-319}, doi = {10.1177/1010539509335499}, pmid = {19443872}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Bangladesh ; *Climate Change ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disasters ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Probability ; *Public Health ; Public Health Administration/methods ; Water Pollution ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirmed that there is overwhelming evidence that the global climate will severely affect human health. Climate change might have severe consequences on public health in Bangladesh, especially in light of the poor state of the country's public health infrastructure. A number of possible direct and indirect impacts of climate change on public health in Bangladesh have been identified in this article. Adaptive measures that should be taken to reduce the negative consequences of climate change on public health have also been discussed.}, }
@article {pmid19443770, year = {2009}, author = {Peñuelas, J and Rutishauser, T and Filella, I}, title = {Ecology. Phenology feedbacks on climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {324}, number = {5929}, pages = {887-888}, doi = {10.1126/science.1173004}, pmid = {19443770}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Biophysical Phenomena ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Organic Chemicals/analysis/metabolism ; *Plant Development ; Plant Leaves/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Plants/metabolism ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid19443508, year = {2009}, author = {Saino, N and Rubolini, D and Lehikoinen, E and Sokolov, LV and Bonisoli-Alquati, A and Ambrosini, R and Boncoraglio, G and Møller, AP}, title = {Climate change effects on migration phenology may mismatch brood parasitic cuckoos and their hosts.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {539-541}, pmid = {19443508}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Birds/*parasitology/*physiology ; Climate ; *Climate Change ; Ecology ; Europe ; Female ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Phenological responses to climate change vary among taxa and across trophic levels. This can lead to a mismatch between the life cycles of ecologically interrelated populations (e.g. predators and prey), with negative consequences for population dynamics of some of the interacting species. Here we provide, to our knowledge, the first evidence that climate change might disrupt the association between the life cycles of the common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus), a migratory brood parasitic bird, and its hosts. We investigated changes in timing of spring arrival of the cuckoo and its hosts throughout Europe over six decades, and found that short-distance, but not long-distance, migratory hosts have advanced their arrival more than the cuckoo. Hence, cuckoos may keep track of phenological changes of long-distance, but not short-distance migrant hosts, with potential consequences for breeding of both cuckoo and hosts. The mismatch to some of the important hosts may contribute to the decline of cuckoo populations and explain some of the observed local changes in parasitism rates of migratory hosts.}, }
@article {pmid19440502, year = {2009}, author = {Bedsworth, L}, title = {Preparing for climate change: a perspective from local public health officers in California.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {4}, pages = {617-623}, pmid = {19440502}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {California ; Communicable Diseases ; Data Collection ; Environmental Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Fires/prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Personnel/*psychology ; Heat Stress Disorders/prevention &amp; control ; Physician's Role ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; Risk Management ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The most recent scientific findings show that even with significant emission reductions, some amount of climate change is likely inevitable. The magnitude of the climate changes will depend on future emissions and climate sensitivity. These changes will have local impacts, and a significant share of coping with these changes will fall on local governmental agencies. Public health is no exception, because local public health agencies are crucial providers of disease prevention, health care, and emergency preparedness services.<br><br>METHODS: This article presents the results of a survey of California's local pubic health officers conducted between August and October 2007. The survey gauged health officers' concerns about the public health impacts of climate change, programs in place that could help to mitigate these health effects, and information and resource needs for better coping with a changing climate.<br><br>RESULTS: The results of this survey show that most public health officers feel that climate change poses a serious threat to public health but that they do not feel well equipped in terms of either resources or information to cope with that threat. Nonetheless, public health agencies currently implement a number of programs that will help these agencies handle some of the challenges posed by a changing climate.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the results suggest that local public health agencies in California are likely in a better position than they perceive to address the threats associated with climate change but that there is a larger role for them to play in climate policy.}, }
@article {pmid19440487, year = {2009}, author = {Boxall, AB and Hardy, A and Beulke, S and Boucard, T and Burgin, L and Falloon, PD and Haygarth, PM and Hutchinson, T and Kovats, RS and Leonardi, G and Levy, LS and Nichols, G and Parsons, SA and Potts, L and Stone, D and Topp, E and Turley, DB and Walsh, K and Wellington, EM and Williams, RJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {4}, pages = {508-514}, pmid = {19440487}, issn = {1552-9924}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; /DH_/Department of Health/United Kingdom ; /BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Agrochemicals/metabolism/*toxicity ; Animals ; Climate ; Disease Vectors ; Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; *Environmental Exposure/prevention &amp; control ; Environmental Pollutants/metabolism/*toxicity ; Food Contamination ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Humans ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts.<br><br>DATA SOURCES: In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems.<br><br>DATA SYNTHESIS: We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes.}, }
@article {pmid19440414, year = {2009}, author = {Markandya, A and Chiabai, A}, title = {Valuing climate change impacts on human health: empirical evidence from the literature.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {759-786}, pmid = {19440414}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {*Climate ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Empirical Research ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, abstract = {There is a broad consensus that climate change will increase the costs arising from diseases such as malaria and diarrhea and, furthermore, that the largest increases will be in developing countries. One of the problems is the lack of studies measuring these costs systematically and in detail. This paper critically reviews a number of studies about the costs of planned adaptation in the health context, and compares current health expenditures with MDGs which are felt to be inadequate when considering climate change impacts. The analysis serves also as a critical investigation of the methodologies used and aims at identifying research weaknesses and gaps.}, }
@article {pmid19440410, year = {2009}, author = {Bélanger, D and Gosselin, P and Valois, P and Germain, S and Abdous, B}, title = {Use of a remote car starter in relation to smog and climate change perceptions: a population survey in Québec (Canada).}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {694-709}, pmid = {19440410}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; *Air Pollutants ; *Automobiles ; *Climate ; Data Collection ; *Electronics ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Quebec ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {Remote car starters encourage motorists to warm up their vehicles by idling the motor--thus increasing atmospheric pollutants, including several greenhouse gas (GHG) with impacts on public health. This study about climate change (CC) adaptation and mitigation actions examined perceptions on air pollution and climate change and individual characteristics associated with the use of a remote car starter. A telephone survey (n = 2,570; response rate: 70%) of adults living in Québec (Canada) measured the respondents' beliefs and current behaviours regarding CC. Approximately 32.9% (daily car users) and 27.4% (occasional users) reported using a remote car starter during winter. The odds of the use of a remote car starter was higher in the less densely populated central (OR: 1.5) and peripheral regions (OR: 2.7) compared to the urban centers (ex. Montreal). The odds was also higher in population with a mother tongue other than English or French (OR: 2.6) and francophones than anglophones (OR: 2.1), women than men (OR: 1.5), daily drivers than occasional ones (OR: 1.2), and respondents who at least sometimes consulted temperature/humidity reports than those who consulted them less often (OR: 1.5). In multivariate analysis, the perception of living in a region susceptible to winter smog, being aware of smog warnings, or the belief in the human contribution to CC did not significantly influence the use of a remote car starter. The use of remote car starters encourages idling which produces increased atmospheric pollution and GHG production and it should be more efficiently and vigorously managed by various activities. A five-minute daily reduction in idling is equivalent to reducing the total car emissions by 1.8%. This would constitute a "no-regrets" approach to CC as it can simultaneously reduce GHG, air pollution and their health impacts.}, }
@article {pmid19439652, year = {2009}, author = {Pierce, DW and Barnett, TP and Santer, BD and Gleckler, PJ}, title = {Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {21}, pages = {8441-8446}, pmid = {19439652}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&amp;A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&amp;A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&amp;A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&amp;A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid19435831, year = {2009}, author = {Høye, TT and Hammel, JU and Fuchs, T and Toft, S}, title = {Climate change and sexual size dimorphism in an Arctic spider.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {542-544}, pmid = {19435831}, issn = {1744-957X}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Body Size ; *Climate Change ; Female ; Life Cycle Stages ; Male ; Population Dynamics ; Sex Characteristics ; Spiders/*physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is advancing the onset of the growing season and this is happening at a particularly fast rate in the High Arctic. However, in most species the relative fitness implications for males and females remain elusive. Here, we present data on 10 successive cohorts of the wolf spider Pardosa glacialis from Zackenberg in High-Arctic, northeast Greenland. We found marked inter-annual variation in adult body size (carapace width) and this variation was greater in females than in males. Earlier snowmelt during both years of its biennial maturation resulted in larger adult body sizes and a skew towards positive sexual size dimorphism (females bigger than males). These results illustrate the pervasive influence of climate on key life-history traits and indicate that male and female responses to climate should be investigated separately whenever possible.}, }
@article {pmid19435111, year = {2009}, author = {Rogers, P}, title = {Climate change and security.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {108-109}, doi = {10.7861/clinmedicine.9-2-108}, pmid = {19435111}, issn = {1470-2118}, mesh = {Emigration and Immigration ; *Environmental Health ; Global Health ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Poverty ; Security Measures/*trends ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Climate change was originally expected to have its main impact on countries in temperate latitudes which, because of their relative wealth, would be best able to cope. It is now far more likely that much poorer states in the tropics and sub-tropics will experience severe impacts. This is compounded by the widening socioeconomic divide and the combination of these divisions, with environmental constraints, will have a profound impact on human security. The dangerous response to the prospects of mass migration and radical social movements is to attempt to maintain control without addressing underlying problems. Instead, there is an urgent need to embrace new concepts of sustainable security.}, }
@article {pmid19432646, year = {2009}, author = {Lawler, JJ}, title = {Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1162}, number = {}, pages = {79-98}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.04147.x}, pmid = {19432646}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Greenhouse Effect ; Marine Biology ; }, abstract = {Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.}, }
@article {pmid19428303, year = {2009}, author = {Polley, L and Thompson, RC}, title = {Parasite zoonoses and climate change: molecular tools for tracking shifting boundaries.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {285-291}, doi = {10.1016/j.pt.2009.03.007}, pmid = {19428303}, issn = {1471-5007}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Humans ; Molecular Biology/methods ; Parasites/classification/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; *Parasitic Diseases/epidemiology/parasitology/transmission ; Prevalence ; *Zoonoses ; }, abstract = {For human, domestic animal and wildlife health, key effects of directional climate change include the risk of the altered occurrence of infectious diseases. Many parasite zoonoses have high potential for vulnerability to the new climate, in part because their free-living life-cycle stages and ectothermic hosts are directly exposed to climatic conditions. For these zoonoses, climate change can shift boundaries for ecosystem components and processes integral to parasite transmission and persistence, and these shifts can impact host health. Vulnerable boundaries include those for spatial distributions, host-parasite assemblages, demographic rates, life-cycle phenologies, associations within ecosystems, virulence, and patterns of infection and disease. This review describes these boundary shifts and how molecular techniques can be applied to defining the new boundaries.}, }
@article {pmid19425882, year = {2009}, author = {Finke, GR and Bozinovic, F and Navarrete, SA}, title = {A mechanistic model to study the thermal ecology of a southeastern pacific dominant intertidal mussel and implications for climate change.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {82}, number = {4}, pages = {303-313}, doi = {10.1086/599321}, pmid = {19425882}, issn = {1537-5293}, mesh = {Animals ; Bivalvia/*physiology ; Body Temperature/physiology ; Chile ; *Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Meteorological Concepts ; *Models, Biological ; Pacific Ocean ; }, abstract = {Developing mechanistic models to predict an organism's body temperature facilitates the study of physiological stresses caused by extreme climatic conditions the species might have faced in the past or making predictions about changes to come in the near future. Because the models combine empirical observation of different climatic variables with essential morphological attributes of the species, it is possible to examine specific aspects of predicted climatic changes. Here, we develop a model for the competitively dominant intertidal mussel Perumytilus purpuratus that estimates body temperature on the basis of meteorological and tidal data with an average difference (+/-SE) of 0.410 degrees +/- 0.0315 degrees C in comparison with a field-deployed temperature logger. Modeled body temperatures of P. purpuratus in central Chile regularly exceeded 30 degrees C in summer months, and values as high as 38 degrees C were found. These results suggest that the temperatures reached by mussels in the intertidal zone in central Chile are not sufficiently high to induce significant mortality on adults of this species; however, because body temperatures >40 degrees C can be lethal for this species, sublethal effects on physiological performance warrant further investigation. Body temperatures of mussels increased sigmoidally with increasing tidal height. Body temperatures of individuals from approximately 70% of the tidal range leveled off and did not increase any further with increasing tidal height. Finally, body size played an important role in determining body temperature. A hypothetical 5-cm-long mussel (only 1 cm longer than mussels found in nature) did reach potentially lethal body temperatures, suggesting that the biophysical environment may play a role in limiting the size of this small species.}, }
@article {pmid19425039, year = {2009}, author = {Prather, KA}, title = {Our current understanding of the impact of aerosols on climate change.}, journal = {ChemSusChem}, volume = {2}, number = {5}, pages = {377-379}, doi = {10.1002/cssc.200900037}, pmid = {19425039}, issn = {1864-564X}, mesh = {Aerosols/*adverse effects ; Air Pollution ; Carbon Dioxide/adverse effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health ; Humans ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Aerosols constitute a climate and health risk via both direct and indirect effects. In this Viewpoint, recent developments in aerosol research and available instrumentation are discussed in the context of environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid19423592, year = {2009}, author = {Christensen, TH and Gentil, E and Boldrin, A and Larsen, AW and Weidema, BP and Hauschild, M}, title = {C balance, carbon dioxide emissions and global warming potentials in LCA-modelling of waste management systems.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {27}, number = {8}, pages = {707-715}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X08096304}, pmid = {19423592}, issn = {1096-3669}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Carbon/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Global Warming ; *Models, Theoretical ; Waste Management/*methods ; }, abstract = {Global warming potential (GWP) is an important impact category in life-cycle-assessment modelling of waste management systems. However, accounting of biogenic CO(2) emissions and sequestered biogenic carbon in landfills and in soils, amended with compost, is carried out in different ways in reported studies. A simplified model of carbon flows is presented for the waste management system and the surrounding industries, represented by the pulp and paper manufacturing industry, the forestry industry and the energy industry. The model calculated the load of C to the atmosphere, under ideal conditions, for 14 different waste management scenarios under a range of system boundary conditions and a constant consumption of C-product (here assumed to be paper) and energy production within the combined system. Five sets of criteria for assigning GWP indices to waste management systems were applied to the same 14 scenarios and tested for their ability to rank the waste management alternatives reflecting the resulting CO(2) load to the atmosphere. Two complete criteria sets were identified yielding fully consistent results; one set considers biogenic CO(2) as neutral, the other one did not. The results showed that criteria for assigning global warming contributions are partly linked to the system boundary conditions. While the boundary to the paper industry and the energy industry usually is specified in LCA studies, the boundary to the forestry industry and the interaction between forestry and the energy industry should also be specified and accounted for.}, }
@article {pmid19421189, year = {2009}, author = {Kirchman, DL and Morán, XA and Ducklow, H}, title = {Microbial growth in the polar oceans - role of temperature and potential impact of climate change.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {7}, number = {6}, pages = {451-459}, pmid = {19421189}, issn = {1740-1534}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Arctic Regions ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Temperature ; *Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Heterotrophic bacteria are the most abundant organisms on the planet and dominate oceanic biogeochemical cycles, including that of carbon. Their role in polar waters has been enigmatic, however, because of conflicting reports about how temperature and the supply of organic carbon control bacterial growth. In this Analysis article, we attempt to resolve this controversy by reviewing previous reports in light of new data on microbial processes in the western Arctic Ocean and by comparing polar waters with low-latitude oceans. Understanding the regulation of in situ microbial activity may help us understand the response of the Arctic Ocean and Antarctic coastal waters over the coming decades as they warm and ice coverage declines.}, }
@article {pmid19418286, year = {2009}, author = {Sarfaty, M and Abouzaid, S}, title = {The physician's response to climate change.}, journal = {Family medicine}, volume = {41}, number = {5}, pages = {358-363}, pmid = {19418286}, issn = {0742-3225}, mesh = {Communicable Diseases/transmission ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Physician's Role ; Population Surveillance ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Climate change will have an effect on the health and well-being of the populations cared for by practicing physicians. The anticipated medical effects include heat- and cold-related deaths, cardiovascular illnesses, injuries and mental harms from extreme weather events, respiratory illnesses caused by poor air quality, infectious diseases that emanate from contaminated food, water, or spread of disease vectors, the injuries caused by natural disasters, and the mental harm associated with social disruption. Within several years, such medical problems are likely to reach the doorsteps of many physicians. In the face of this reality, physicians should assume their traditional roles as medical professionals, health educators, and community leaders. Clinicians provide individual health services to patients, some of whom will be especially vulnerable to the emerging health consequences of global warming. Physicians also work in academic medical institutions and hospitals that educate and provide continuing medical education to students, residents, and practitioners. The institutions also produce a measurable carbon footprint. Societies of physicians at national, state, and local levels can choose to use their well-developed avenues of communication to raise awareness of the key issues that are raised by climate change as well as other environmental concerns that have profound implications for human health and well-being.}, }
@article {pmid19418098, year = {2009}, author = {Ramin, BM and McMichael, AJ}, title = {Climate change and health in sub-Saharan Africa: a case-based perspective.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {52-57}, pmid = {19418098}, issn = {1612-9210}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; *Climate Change ; Dehydration/complications/etiology ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Droughts ; Floods ; Food Supply ; *Global Health ; *Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Malnutrition/complications/etiology ; }, abstract = {Over the coming decades, sub-Saharan Africa will face profound stresses and challenges from global climate change. Many of these will manifest as adverse health outcomes. This article uses a series of five hypothetical cases to review the climate impacts on the health and well-being of individuals and populations in sub-Saharan Africa. This approach fosters insights into the human dimensions of the risks to health, their interaction with local human ecology, and awareness of the diverse health ramifications of external environmental changes. Each case illustrates the health impact resulting from a specific environmental or social consequence of climate change, including impacts on agriculture and food security, droughts, floods, malaria, and population displacement. Whereas the article focuses on discrete manifestations of climate change, individuals will, in practice, face multiple stresses from climate change (i.e., floods and malaria) concomitant with other non-climate stressors (i.e., HIV/AIDS, globalization, etc.). These multiple sources of vulnerability must be considered when designing climate change and socioeconomic development interventions.}, }
@article {pmid19415109, year = {2009}, author = {Beebe, NW and Cooper, RD and Mottram, P and Sweeney, AW}, title = {Australia's dengue risk driven by human adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {PLoS neglected tropical diseases}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {e429}, pmid = {19415109}, issn = {1935-2735}, mesh = {Aedes/growth &amp; development ; Animals ; Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate Change ; Dengue/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development ; Larva/growth &amp; development ; Queensland/epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The reduced rainfall in southeast Australia has placed this region's urban and rural communities on escalating water restrictions, with anthropogenic climate change forecasts suggesting that this drying trend will continue. To mitigate the stress this may place on domestic water supply, governments have encouraged the installation of large domestic water tanks in towns and cities throughout this region. These prospective stable mosquito larval sites create the possibility of the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti from Queensland, where it remains endemic, back into New South Wales and other populated centres in Australia, along with the associated emerging and re-emerging dengue risk if the virus was to be introduced.<br><br>Having collated the known distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we built distributional models using a genetic algorithm to project Ae. aegypti's distribution under today's climate and under climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 and compared the outputs to published theoretical temperature limits. Incongruence identified between the models and theoretical temperature limits highlighted the difficulty of using point occurrence data to study a species whose distribution is mediated more by human activity than by climate. Synthesis of this data with dengue transmission climate limits in Australia derived from historical dengue epidemics suggested that a proliferation of domestic water storage tanks in Australia could result in another range expansion of Ae. aegypti which would present a risk of dengue transmission in most major cities during their warm summer months.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In the debate of the role climate change will play in the future range of dengue in Australia, we conclude that the increased risk of an Ae. aegypti range expansion in Australia would be due not directly to climate change but rather to human adaptation to the current and forecasted regional drying through the installation of large domestic water storing containers. The expansion of this efficient dengue vector presents both an emerging and re-emerging disease risk to Australia. Therefore, if the installation and maintenance of domestic water storage tanks is not tightly controlled, Ae. aegypti could expand its range again and cohabit with the majority of Australia's population, presenting a high potential dengue transmission risk during our warm summers.}, }
@article {pmid19412377, year = {2008}, author = {MacDonald, NE}, title = {West Nile virus in the context of climate change.}, journal = {The Canadian journal of infectious diseases &amp; medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {217-218}, pmid = {19412377}, issn = {1712-9532}, }
@article {pmid19412372, year = {2008}, author = {}, title = {West Nile virus in the context of climate change.}, journal = {Paediatrics &amp; child health}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {399-404}, pmid = {19412372}, issn = {1205-7088}, }
@article {pmid19408428, year = {2009}, author = {Prudent, N and Houghton, A and Stewart, J and Petersen, A and Thompson, R and Byrne, M and Luber, G}, title = {Addressing climate change and local public health: the Austin Climate Protection Program and the CDC Working Group on Climate Change collaboration.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health}, volume = {71}, number = {8}, pages = {18-19}, pmid = {19408428}, issn = {0022-0892}, mesh = {*Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Health/*organization &amp; administration ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Planning ; Humans ; *Interinstitutional Relations ; Texas ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid19407799, year = {2009}, author = {Meinshausen, M and Meinshausen, N and Hare, W and Raper, SC and Frieler, K and Knutti, R and Frame, DJ and Allen, MR}, title = {Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {458}, number = {7242}, pages = {1158-1162}, pmid = {19407799}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Ecology/*methods ; Forecasting ; Fossil Fuels/analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Probability ; *Temperature ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 degrees C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impacts and damages. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to uncertainties in the carbon cycle and the climate response. Here we provide a comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000-50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 degrees C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints. We show that, for the chosen class of emission scenarios, both cumulative emissions up to 2050 and emission levels in 2050 are robust indicators of the probability that twenty-first century warming will not exceed 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Limiting cumulative CO(2) emissions over 2000-50 to 1,000 Gt CO(2) yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2 degrees C-and a limit of 1,440 Gt CO(2) yields a 50% probability-given a representative estimate of the distribution of climate system properties. As known 2000-06 CO(2) emissions were approximately 234 Gt CO(2), less than half the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. Recent G8 Communiqués envisage halved global GHG emissions by 2050, for which we estimate a 12-45% probability of exceeding 2 degrees C-assuming 1990 as emission base year and a range of published climate sensitivity distributions. Emissions levels in 2020 are a less robust indicator, but for the scenarios considered, the probability of exceeding 2 degrees C rises to 53-87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 levels in 2020.}, }
@article {pmid19407786, year = {2009}, author = {Schmidt, G and Archer, D}, title = {Climate change: Too much of a bad thing.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {458}, number = {7242}, pages = {1117-1118}, pmid = {19407786}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Ecology/*methods ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; *Models, Theoretical ; Probability ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid19407167, year = {2009}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Study challenges cosmic ray-climate link.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {324}, number = {5927}, pages = {576-577}, doi = {10.1126/science.324_576b}, pmid = {19407167}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19402663, year = {2009}, author = {Blowers, P and Hollingshead, K}, title = {Estimations of global warming potentials from computational chemistry calculations for CH(2)F(2) and other fluorinated methyl species verified by comparison to experiment.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {113}, number = {20}, pages = {5942-5950}, doi = {10.1021/jp8114918}, pmid = {19402663}, issn = {1520-5215}, abstract = {In this work, the global warming potential (GWP) of methylene fluoride (CH(2)F(2)), or HFC-32, is estimated through computational chemistry methods. We find our computational chemistry approach reproduces well all phenomena important for predicting global warming potentials. Geometries predicted using the B3LYP/6-311g** method were in good agreement with experiment, although some other computational methods performed slightly better. Frequencies needed for both partition function calculations in transition-state theory and infrared intensities needed for radiative forcing estimates agreed well with experiment compared to other computational methods. A modified CBS-RAD method used to obtain energies led to superior results to all other previous heat of reaction estimates and most barrier height calculations when the B3LYP/6-311g** optimized geometry was used as the base structure. Use of the small-curvature tunneling correction and a hindered rotor treatment where appropriate led to accurate reaction rate constants and radiative forcing estimates without requiring any experimental data. Atmospheric lifetimes from theory at 277 K were indistinguishable from experimental results, as were the final global warming potentials compared to experiment. This is the first time entirely computational methods have been applied to estimate a global warming potential for a chemical, and we have found the approach to be robust, inexpensive, and accurate compared to prior experimental results. This methodology was subsequently used to estimate GWPs for three additional species [methane (CH(4)); fluoromethane (CH(3)F), or HFC-41; and fluoroform (CHF(3)), or HFC-23], where estimations also compare favorably to experimental values.}, }
@article {pmid19400536, year = {2008}, author = {Christenson, B}, title = {Hurricanes, climate change and the cholera epidemic in Puerto Rico of 1855-1856.}, journal = {Boletin de la Asociacion Medica de Puerto Rico}, volume = {100}, number = {4}, pages = {99-101}, pmid = {19400536}, issn = {0004-4849}, mesh = {Caribbean Region ; Cholera/*history/mortality/transmission ; *Climate ; Cyclonic Storms/*history ; Disease Outbreaks/*history ; History, 19th Century ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Puerto Rico ; }, abstract = {Hurricanes and global climate changes may affect the environmental factors of cholera dynamics in warm coastal areas, vulnerable to seasonal or sporadic outbreaks. The cholera epidemic of Puerto Rico in 1855-1856 had a profound effect on the Puerto Rican society; but it was not influenced by any climatic events, such as preceding hurricanes or storms based on past documentary sources. Particularly, the environmental non-toxigenic strains of Vibrio Cholerae in Puerto Rican water sources can maintain their pathogenic potential for sporadic or erratic toxigenic cholera outbreaks--if a "perfect storm" ever occurs.}, }
@article {pmid19398024, year = {2009}, author = {Janssens, SB and Knox, EB and Huysmans, S and Smets, EF and Merckx, VS}, title = {Rapid radiation of Impatiens (Balsaminaceae) during Pliocene and Pleistocene: result of a global climate change.}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {806-824}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2009.04.013}, pmid = {19398024}, issn = {1095-9513}, mesh = {Cell Nucleus/genetics ; China ; Climate ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; DNA, Plant/genetics ; *Evolution, Molecular ; *Genetic Speciation ; Impatiens/classification/*genetics ; *Phylogeny ; Sequence Alignment ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {Impatiens comprises more than 1000 species and is one of the largest genera of flowering plants. The genus has a subcosmopolitan distribution, yet most of its evolutionary history is unknown. Diversification analyses, divergence time estimates and historical biogeography, illustrated that the extant species of Impatiens originated in Southwest China and started to diversify in the Early Miocene. Until the Early Pliocene, the net diversification rate within the genus was fairly slow. Since that time, however, approximately 80% of all Impatiens lineages have originated. This period of rapid diversification coincides with the global cooling of the Earth's climate and subsequent glacial oscillations. Without this accelerated diversification rate, Impatiens would only have contained 1/5th of its current number of species, thereby indicating the rapid radiation of the genus.}, }
@article {pmid19391376, year = {2008}, author = {Bickerstaff, K and Lorenzoni, I and Pidgeon, NF and Poortinga, W and Simmons, P}, title = {Reframing nuclear power in the UK energy debate: nuclear power, climate change mitigation and radioactive waste.}, journal = {Public understanding of science (Bristol, England)}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {145-169}, doi = {10.1177/0963662506066719}, pmid = {19391376}, issn = {0963-6625}, mesh = {Climate ; Electric Power Supplies/classification/standards ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Focus Groups ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Nuclear Power Plants/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/standards ; *Public Policy ; Radioactive Hazard Release/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Radioactive Waste/*adverse effects/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Risk Assessment ; Social Responsibility ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {In the past decade, human influence on the climate through increased use of fossil fuels has become widely acknowledged as one of the most pressing issues for the global community. For the United Kingdom, we suggest that these concerns have increasingly become manifest in a new strand of political debate around energy policy, which reframes nuclear power as part of the solution to the need for low-carbon energy options. A mixed-methods analysis of citizen views of climate change and radioactive waste is presented, integrating focus group data and a nationally representative survey. The data allow us to explore how UK citizens might now and in the future interpret and make sense of this new framing of nuclear power--which ultimately centers on a risk-risk trade-off scenario. We use the term "reluctant acceptance" to describe how, in complex ways, many focus group participants discursively re-negotiated their position on nuclear energy when it was positioned alongside climate change. In the concluding section of the paper, we reflect on the societal implications of the emerging discourse of new nuclear build as a means of delivering climate change mitigation and set an agenda for future research regarding the (re)framing of the nuclear energy debate in the UK and beyond.}, }
@article {pmid19390593, year = {2009}, author = {Fries, BC and Mayer, J}, title = {Climate change and infectious disease.}, journal = {Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases}, volume = {2009}, number = {}, pages = {976403}, doi = {10.1155/2009/976403}, pmid = {19390593}, issn = {1687-708X}, support = {R24 HD042828/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R24 HD042828-10/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; }, }
@article {pmid19387097, year = {2009}, author = {Sganga, G and Cozza, V and Spanu, T and Spada, PL and Fadda, G}, title = {Global climate change and wound care: case study of an off-season vibrio alginolyticus infection in a healthy man.}, journal = {Ostomy/wound management}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {60-62}, pmid = {19387097}, issn = {0889-5899}, mesh = {Aged ; Biopsy ; DNA, Bacterial/analysis/genetics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Leg Injuries/complications ; Male ; Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Risk Factors ; *Seasons ; Seawater/microbiology ; Skin Care/methods ; Vibrio Infections/diagnosis/*etiology/therapy ; *Vibrio alginolyticus/genetics ; Water Microbiology ; Wound Healing ; Wound Infection/diagnosis/*etiology/therapy ; Wounds, Penetrating/complications ; }, abstract = {Vibrio alginolyticus is a halophilic Gram-negative bacterium normally present in seawater. Vibrios are not capable of cutaneous invasion through intact skin and their isolation from extraintestinal sites is uncommon. However, interruptions in skin integrity (cuts or abrasions) can allow these bacteria to cause complicated skin and soft tissues infections. This case study describes the clinical assessment and management of a nonhealing traumatic wound, sustained in a coastal area during the winter months, in a healthy 70-year-old man. Culture results were positive for V. alginolyticus. Appropriate antibiotic treatment and topical wound care successfully resolved the infection. V. alginolyticus infections are usually benign; respond well to treatment, even with local therapy only; and tend to result from contact with warm ocean water. The clinical characteristics of the wound prompted a suspicion of a Vibrio infection even though the wound was sustained in the winter time and the patient did not have direct contact with ocean water. Although other case studies of Vibrio infections in the absence of direct contact with ocean water have been published, increased ocean temperatures due to global climate changes may explain the out-of-season infection in this patient. Clinicians should monitor the progression of wound healing and be prepared to modify treatment based on individual circumstances, especially in the case of unusual wound presentation, nonhealing, or a progressing wound infection.}, }
@article {pmid19384423, year = {2009}, author = {Diaz-Pulido, G and McCook, LJ and Dove, S and Berkelmans, R and Roff, G and Kline, DI and Weeks, S and Evans, RD and Williamson, DH and Hoegh-Guldberg, O}, title = {Doom and boom on a resilient reef: climate change, algal overgrowth and coral recovery.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {e5239}, pmid = {19384423}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate ; Eukaryota/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Coral reefs around the world are experiencing large-scale degradation, largely due to global climate change, overfishing, diseases and eutrophication. Climate change models suggest increasing frequency and severity of warming-induced coral bleaching events, with consequent increases in coral mortality and algal overgrowth. Critically, the recovery of damaged reefs will depend on the reversibility of seaweed blooms, generally considered to depend on grazing of the seaweed, and replenishment of corals by larvae that successfully recruit to damaged reefs. These processes usually take years to decades to bring a reef back to coral dominance.<br><br>In 2006, mass bleaching of corals on inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef caused high coral mortality. Here we show that this coral mortality was followed by an unprecedented bloom of a single species of unpalatable seaweed (Lobophora variegata), colonizing dead coral skeletons, but that corals on these reefs recovered dramatically, in less than a year. Unexpectedly, this rapid reversal did not involve reestablishment of corals by recruitment of coral larvae, as often assumed, but depended on several ecological mechanisms previously underestimated.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These mechanisms of ecological recovery included rapid regeneration rates of remnant coral tissue, very high competitive ability of the corals allowing them to out-compete the seaweed, a natural seasonal decline in the particular species of dominant seaweed, and an effective marine protected area system. Our study provides a key example of the doom and boom of a highly resilient reef, and new insights into the variability and mechanisms of reef resilience under rapid climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19380730, year = {2009}, author = {Portmann, RW and Solomon, S and Hegerl, GC}, title = {Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {18}, pages = {7324-7329}, pmid = {19380730}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Rain ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; United States ; }, abstract = {Changes in climate during the 20th century differ from region to region across the United States. We provide strong evidence that spatial variations in US temperature trends are linked to the hydrologic cycle, and we also present unique information on the seasonal and latitudinal structure of the linkage. We show that there is a statistically significant inverse relationship between trends in daily temperature and average daily precipitation across regions. This linkage is most pronounced in the southern United States (30-40 degrees N) during the May-June time period and, to a lesser extent, in the northern United States (40-50 degrees N) during the July-August time period. It is strongest in trends in maximum temperatures (T(max)) and 90th percentile exceedance trends (90PET), and less pronounced in the T(max) 10PET and the corresponding T(min) statistics, and it is robust to changes in analysis period. Although previous studies suggest that areas of increased precipitation may have reduced trends in temperature compared with drier regions, a change in sign from positive to negative trends suggests some additional cause. We show that trends in precipitation may account for some, but not likely all, of the cause point to evidence that shows that dynamical patterns (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, etc.) cannot account for the observed effects during May-June. We speculate that changing aerosols, perhaps related to vegetation changes, and increased strength of the aerosol direct and indirect effect may play a role in the observed linkages between these indices of temperature change and the hydrologic cycle.}, }
@article {pmid19380424, year = {2009}, author = {Gregory, PJ and Johnson, SN and Newton, AC and Ingram, JS}, title = {Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {60}, number = {10}, pages = {2827-2838}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erp080}, pmid = {19380424}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/*parasitology ; *Ecosystem ; Eukaryota/physiology ; *Food Supply ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Insecta/physiology ; Pest Control ; Plant Diseases/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {While many studies have demonstrated the sensitivities of plants and of crop yield to a changing climate, a major challenge for the agricultural research community is to relate these findings to the broader societal concern with food security. This paper reviews the direct effects of climate on both crop growth and yield and on plant pests and pathogens and the interactions that may occur between crops, pests, and pathogens under changed climate. Finally, we consider the contribution that better understanding of the roles of pests and pathogens in crop production systems might make to enhanced food security. Evidence for the measured climate change on crops and their associated pests and pathogens is starting to be documented. Globally atmospheric [CO(2)] has increased, and in northern latitudes mean temperature at many locations has increased by about 1.0-1.4 degrees C with accompanying changes in pest and pathogen incidence and to farming practices. Many pests and pathogens exhibit considerable capacity for generating, recombining, and selecting fit combinations of variants in key pathogenicity, fitness, and aggressiveness traits that there is little doubt that any new opportunities resulting from climate change will be exploited by them. However, the interactions between crops and pests and pathogens are complex and poorly understood in the context of climate change. More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.}, }
@article {pmid19379136, year = {2009}, author = {Hole, DG and Willis, SG and Pain, DJ and Fishpool, LD and Butchart, SH and Collingham, YC and Rahbek, C and Huntley, B}, title = {Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {420-431}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01297.x}, pmid = {19379136}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Despite widespread concern, the continuing effectiveness of networks of protected areas under projected 21st century climate change is uncertain. Shifts in species' distributions could mean these resources will cease to afford protection to those species for which they were originally established. Using modelled projected shifts in the distributions of sub-Saharan Africa's entire breeding avifauna, we show that species turnover across the continent's Important Bird Area (IBA) network is likely to vary regionally and will be substantial at many sites (> 50% at 42% of IBAs by 2085 for priority species). Persistence of suitable climate space across the network as a whole, however, is notably high, with 88-92% of priority species retaining suitable climate space in >or= 1 IBA(s) in which they are currently found. Only 7-8 priority species lose climatic representation from the network. Hence, despite the likelihood of significant community disruption, we demonstrate that rigorously defined networks of protected areas can play a key role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change on biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid19378476, year = {2009}, author = {}, title = {Climate change and your health.}, journal = {Harvard men's health watch}, volume = {13}, number = {8}, pages = {4-6}, pmid = {19378476}, issn = {1089-1102}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Hydrocarbons, Fluorinated ; Methane ; Nitrous Oxide ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid19377099, year = {2009}, author = {Edwards, P and Roberts, I}, title = {Population adiposity and climate change.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {38}, number = {4}, pages = {1137-1140}, doi = {10.1093/ije/dyp172}, pmid = {19377099}, issn = {1464-3685}, mesh = {Adiposity/*physiology ; Adult ; Automobile Driving/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Body Mass Index ; Eating/physiology ; Energy Intake/physiology ; Energy Metabolism/physiology ; Food Supply ; Gasoline/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Obesity/epidemiology/physiopathology ; Overweight/*epidemiology/physiopathology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The increasing global prevalence of overweight and obesity has serious implications for the environment, as well as for health. We estimate the impact on greenhouse gas emissions of increases in the population distribution of body mass index (BMI).<br><br>METHODS: We estimated the food energy required to maintain basal metabolic rate in two hypothetical adult populations using the Schofield equations for males and females. Additional greenhouse gas emissions due to higher fuel energy use for transporting a heavier population were estimated.<br><br>RESULTS: Compared with a normal population distribution of BMI, a population with 40% obese requires 19% more food energy for its total energy expenditure. Greenhouse gas emissions from food production and car travel due to increases in adiposity in a population of 1 billion are estimated to be between 0.4 Giga tonnes (GT) and 1.0 GT of carbon dioxide equivalents per year.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The maintenance of a healthy BMI has important environmental benefits in terms of lower greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid19375865, year = {2009}, author = {Wall, R and Morgan, E}, title = {Veterinary parasitology and climate change.}, journal = {Veterinary parasitology}, volume = {163}, number = {4}, pages = {263}, doi = {10.1016/j.vetpar.2009.03.023}, pmid = {19375865}, issn = {1873-2550}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Parasitic Diseases, Animal/*epidemiology/transmission ; Parasitology/*trends ; Seasons ; Travel ; Veterinary Medicine/*trends ; Zoonoses ; }, }
@article {pmid19375233, year = {2009}, author = {Mas-Coma, S and Valero, MA and Bargues, MD}, title = {Climate change effects on trematodiases, with emphasis on zoonotic fascioliasis and schistosomiasis.}, journal = {Veterinary parasitology}, volume = {163}, number = {4}, pages = {264-280}, doi = {10.1016/j.vetpar.2009.03.024}, pmid = {19375233}, issn = {1873-2550}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Domestic ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate Change ; Disease Reservoirs/parasitology/veterinary ; Fascioliasis/epidemiology/parasitology/transmission/*veterinary ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Oocysts ; Prevalence ; Schistosomiasis/epidemiology/parasitology/transmission/*veterinary ; Seasons ; Snails/*parasitology ; Zoonoses ; }, abstract = {The capacity of climatic conditions to modulate the extent and intensity of parasitism is well known since long ago. Concerning helminths, among the numerous environmental modifications giving rise to changes in infections, climate variables appear as those showing a greater influence, so that climate change may be expected to have an important impact on the diseases they cause. However, the confirmation of the impact of climate change on helminthiases has been reached very recently. Only shortly before, helminthiases were still noted as infectious diseases scarcely affected by climate change, when compared to diseases caused by microorganisms in general (viruses, bacteriae, protozoans). The aim of the present paper is to review the impact of climate change on helminthiases transmitted by snails, invertebrates which are pronouncedly affected by meteorological factors, by focusing on trematodiases. First, the knowledge on the effects of climate change on trematodiases in general is reviewed, including aspects such as influence of temperature on cercarial output, cercarial production variability in trematode species, influences of magnitude of cercarial production and snail host size, cercarial quality, duration of cercarial production increase and host mortality, influence of latitude, and global-warming-induced impact of trematodes. Secondly, important zoonotic diseases such as fascioliasis, schistosomiasis and cercarial dermatitis are analysed from the point of view of their relationships with meteorological factors. Emphasis is given to data which indicate that climate change influences the characteristics of these trematodiases in concrete areas where these diseases are emerging in recent years. The present review shows that trematodes, similarly as other helminths presenting larval stages living freely in the environment and/or larval stages parasitic in invertebrates easily affected by climate change as arthropods and molluscs as intermediate hosts, may be largely more susceptible to climate change impact than those helminths in whose life cycle such phases are absent or reduced to a minimum. Although helminths also appear to be affected by climate change, their main difference with microparasites lies on the usually longer life cycles of helminths, with longer generation times, slower population growth rates and longer time period needed for the response in the definitive host to become evident. Consequently, after a pronounced climate change in a local area, modifications in helminth populations need more time to be obvious or detectable than modifications in microparasite populations. Similarly, the relation of changes in a helminthiasis with climatic factor changes, as extreme events elapsed relatively long time ago, may be overlooked if not concretely searched for. All indicates that this phenomenon has been the reason for previous analyses to conclude that helminthiases do not constitute priority targets in climate change impact studies.}, }
@article {pmid19375165, year = {2009}, author = {Noyes, PD and McElwee, MK and Miller, HD and Clark, BW and Van Tiem, LA and Walcott, KC and Erwin, KN and Levin, ED}, title = {The toxicology of climate change: environmental contaminants in a warming world.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {971-986}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2009.02.006}, pmid = {19375165}, issn = {1873-6750}, support = {//Intramural NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Air Pollutants/toxicity ; Environmental Exposure ; *Environmental Pollution ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; Organic Chemicals/toxicity ; Particulate Matter/toxicity ; Pesticides/toxicity ; Pulmonary Heart Disease/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate-pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it will be important to predict tipping points that might trigger or accelerate synergistic interactions between climate change and contaminant exposures.}, }
@article {pmid19374081, year = {2009}, author = {Bateman, C}, title = {Climate change kills at least 300 000 every year.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {99}, number = {1}, pages = {20, 22, 24}, pmid = {19374081}, issn = {0256-9574}, mesh = {Child ; Child Nutrition Disorders/*etiology/*mortality ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Infections/*epidemiology/*etiology ; Risk Factors ; Survival Rate ; }, }
@article {pmid19372401, year = {2009}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. New push focuses on quick ways to curb global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {324}, number = {5925}, pages = {323}, doi = {10.1126/science.324.5925.323a}, pmid = {19372401}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19371450, year = {2009}, author = {Lake, IR and Gillespie, IA and Bentham, G and Nichols, GL and Lane, C and Adak, GK and Threlfall, EJ}, title = {A re-evaluation of the impact of temperature and climate change on foodborne illness.}, journal = {Epidemiology and infection}, volume = {137}, number = {11}, pages = {1538-1547}, doi = {10.1017/S0950268809002477}, pmid = {19371450}, issn = {1469-4409}, mesh = {Campylobacter Infections/*epidemiology ; England/epidemiology ; Foodborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Risk ; Salmonella Food Poisoning/*epidemiology ; Salmonella enteritidis ; Salmonella typhimurium ; *Temperature ; Wales/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {The effects of temperature on reported cases of a number of foodborne illnesses in England and Wales were investigated. We also explored whether the impact of temperature had changed over time. Food poisoning, campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, Salmonella Typhimurium infections and Salmonella Enteritidis infections were positively associated (P<0.01) with temperature in the current and previous week. Only food poisoning, salmonellosis and S. Typhimurium infections were associated with temperature 2-5 weeks previously (P<0.01). There were significant reductions also in the impact of temperature on foodborne illnesses over time. This applies to temperature in the current and previous week for all illness types (P<0.01) except S. Enteritidis infection (P=0.079). Temperature 2-5 weeks previously diminished in importance for food poisoning and S. Typhimurium infection (P<0.001). The results are consistent with reduced pathogen concentrations in food and improved food hygiene over time. These adaptations to temperature imply that current estimates of how climate change may alter foodborne illness burden are overly pessimistic.}, }
@article {pmid19368158, year = {2009}, author = {De Schryver, AM and Brakkee, KW and Goedkoop, MJ and Huijbregts, MA}, title = {Characterization factors for global warming in life cycle assessment based on damages to humans and ecosystems.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {6}, pages = {1689-1695}, doi = {10.1021/es800456m}, pmid = {19368158}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Human and ecosystem health damage due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is generally poorly quantified in the life cycle assessment of products, preventing an integrated comparison of the importance of GHGs with other stressor types, such as ozone depletion and acidifying emissions. In this study, we derived new characterization factors for 63 GHGs that quantify the impact of an emission change on human and ecosystem health damage. For human health damage, the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per unit emission related to malaria, diarrhea, malnutrition, drowning, and cardiovascular diseases were quantified. For ecosystem health damage, the Potentially Disappeared Fraction (PDF) over space and time of various species groups, including plants, butterflies, birds, and mammals, per unit emission was calculated. The influence of value choices in the modeling procedure was analyzed by defining three coherent scenarios, based on Cultural theory perspectives. It was found that the characterization factor for human health damage by carbon dioxide (CO2) ranges from 1.1 x 10(-2) to 1.8 x 10(+1) DALY per kton of emission, while the characterization factor for ecosystem damage by CO2 ranges from 5.4 x 10(-2) to 1.2 x 10(+1) disappeared fraction of species over space and time ((km2 x year)/kton), depending on the scenario chosen. The characterization factor of a GHG can change up to 4 orders of magnitude, depending on the scenario. The scenario-specific differences are mainly explained by the choice for a specific time horizon and stresses the importance of dealing with value choices in the life cycle impact assessment of GHG emissions.}, }
@article {pmid19368155, year = {2009}, author = {Butscher, C and Huggenberger, P}, title = {Modeling the temporal variability of karst groundwater vulnerability, with implications for climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {6}, pages = {1665-1669}, doi = {10.1021/es801613g}, pmid = {19368155}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Switzerland ; Time Factors ; Water Pollutants, Chemical ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid19368152, year = {2009}, author = {Chatterjee, R}, title = {Smart growth--a solution to climate change?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {6}, pages = {1660}, doi = {10.1021/es900293g}, pmid = {19368152}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Midwestern United States ; *Population Growth ; Urban Renewal/*trends ; Vehicle Emissions/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid19353946, year = {2009}, author = {Courtin, F and Sidibé, I and Rouamba, J and Jamonneau, V and Gouro, A and Solano, P}, title = {[Population growth and global warming: impacts on tsetse and trypanosomoses in West Africa].}, journal = {Parasite (Paris, France)}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {3-10}, doi = {10.1051/parasite/2009161003}, pmid = {19353946}, issn = {1252-607X}, mesh = {Africa, Western/epidemiology ; Animals ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Population Density ; Population Growth ; Rain ; Trypanosomiasis/epidemiology/*transmission ; Trypanosomiasis, African/epidemiology/*transmission ; Tsetse Flies/*growth &amp; development/*parasitology ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {Demographic evolution, climatic change and economical development that happened in West Africa during the XXth century had a lot of consequences on human settlement and landscape. These changes have in turn an impact on the pathogenic system of human and animal trypanosomoses. Since last century, the northern tsetse distribution limit has shifted towards the south, probably due to a decrease in rainfall combined to the impact of human pressure. Sleeping sickness (SS) foci have also shifted from the savannah areas (where there is no more SS) to the forest and mangrove areas of West Africa, but animal trypanosomoses are still present in savannah. We show a decrease of tsetse of the morsitans group as a result of an increase of human densities. On the opposite, tsetse species like Glossina palpalis adapt to high human densities and are found in the biggest urban centres of West Africa. There is a need to promote multidisciplinary studies on this demographic-climatic-vector borne disease topic, especially in Africa to be able to define future areas of presence/absence of these diseases in order to help continental plans of control that have recently begun.}, }
@article {pmid19353812, year = {2009}, author = {Miraglia, M and Marvin, HJ and Kleter, GA and Battilani, P and Brera, C and Coni, E and Cubadda, F and Croci, L and De Santis, B and Dekkers, S and Filippi, L and Hutjes, RW and Noordam, MY and Pisante, M and Piva, G and Prandini, A and Toti, L and van den Born, GJ and Vespermann, A}, title = {Climate change and food safety: an emerging issue with special focus on Europe.}, journal = {Food and chemical toxicology : an international journal published for the British Industrial Biological Research Association}, volume = {47}, number = {5}, pages = {1009-1021}, doi = {10.1016/j.fct.2009.02.005}, pmid = {19353812}, issn = {1873-6351}, mesh = {*Consumer Product Safety ; Environmental Health ; Europe ; Food Contamination/*analysis ; Food Microbiology ; *Food Supply ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, abstract = {According to general consensus, the global climate is changing, which may also affect agricultural and livestock production. The potential impact of climate change on food security is a widely debated and investigated issue. Nonetheless, the specific impact on safety of food and feed for consumers has remained a less studied topic. This review therefore identifies the various food safety issues that are likely to be affected by changes in climate, particularly in Europe. Amongst the issues identified are mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage; residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in pest pressure; trace elements and/or heavy metals in plant products depending on changes in their abundance and availability in soils; polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in foods following changes in long-range atmospheric transport and deposition into the environment; marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms; and the presence of pathogenic bacteria in foods following more frequent extreme weather conditions, such as flooding and heat waves. Research topics that are amenable to further research are highlighted.}, }
@article {pmid19351668, year = {2009}, author = {Watson, R}, title = {Climate change could stretch health systems to breaking point, European Commission says.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {338}, number = {}, pages = {b1430}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.b1430}, pmid = {19351668}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Europe ; European Union ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Services/statistics &amp; numerical data/*supply &amp; distribution ; }, }
@article {pmid19339402, year = {2009}, author = {Carlsson-Kanyama, A and González, AD}, title = {Potential contributions of food consumption patterns to climate change.}, journal = {The American journal of clinical nutrition}, volume = {89}, number = {5}, pages = {1704S-1709S}, doi = {10.3945/ajcn.2009.26736AA}, pmid = {19339402}, issn = {1938-3207}, mesh = {Agriculture/trends ; Air Pollution ; Animals ; *Climate ; *Diet ; Eggs ; Fabaceae ; *Feeding Behavior ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Meat ; Ruminants/physiology ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic warming is caused mainly by emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, with agriculture as a main contributor for the latter 2 gases. Other parts of the food system contribute carbon dioxide emissions that emanate from the use of fossil fuels in transportation, processing, retailing, storage, and preparation. Food items differ substantially when GHG emissions are calculated from farm to table. A recent study of approximately 20 items sold in Sweden showed a span of 0.4 to 30 kg CO(2) equivalents/kg edible product. For protein-rich food, such as legumes, meat, fish, cheese, and eggs, the difference is a factor of 30 with the lowest emissions per kilogram for legumes, poultry, and eggs and the highest for beef, cheese, and pork. Large emissions for ruminants are explained mainly by methane emissions from enteric fermentation. For vegetables and fruits, emissions usually are </=2.5 kg CO(2) equivalents/kg product, even if there is a high degree of processing and substantial transportation. Products transported by plane are an exception because emissions may be as large as for certain meats. Emissions from foods rich in carbohydrates, such as potatoes, pasta, and wheat, are <1.1 kg/kg edible food. We suggest that changes in the diet toward more plant-based foods, toward meat from animals with little enteric fermentation, and toward foods processed in an energy-efficient manner offer an interesting and little explored area for mitigating climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19338634, year = {2009}, author = {Primack, RB and Miller-Rushing, AJ}, title = {The role of botanical gardens in climate change research.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {182}, number = {2}, pages = {303-313}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2009.02800.x}, pmid = {19338634}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Gardening ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Plants ; Research Design ; }, abstract = {Botanical gardens have a unique set of resources that allows them to host important climate change research projects not easily undertaken elsewhere. These resources include controlled growing conditions, living collections with broad taxonomic representation, meticulous record-keeping, networks spanning wide geographic areas, and knowledgeable staff. Indeed, botanical gardens have already contributed significantly to our understanding of biological responses to climate change, particularly the effects of temperature on the timing of flowering and leaf-out. They have also made significant contributions to the understanding of the relationships among climate, physiology, and anatomy. Gardens are finding new uses for traditional research tools such as herbarium specimens and historical photographs, which are increasingly being used to obtain information on past plant behavior. Additional work on invasive species and comparative studies of responses to climatic variation are providing insights on important ecological, evolutionary, and management questions. With their large collections of plant species from throughout the world and excellent herbaria, botanical gardens are well positioned to expand their current activities to continue to provide leadership in climate change research and education.}, }
@article {pmid19338070, year = {2009}, author = {Benitez, MA}, title = {Climate change could affect mosquito-borne diseases in Asia.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {373}, number = {9669}, pages = {1070}, doi = {10.1016/s0140-6736(09)60634-6}, pmid = {19338070}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Alphavirus Infections/*epidemiology ; Animals ; Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; *Chikungunya virus ; *Climate ; *Culicidae ; Dengue/*epidemiology ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid19337490, year = {2009}, author = {Stemp-Morlock, G}, title = {Climate change: California's 2020 vision.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {3}, pages = {A103}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.117-a103}, pmid = {19337490}, issn = {1552-9924}, mesh = {California ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid19332777, year = {2009}, author = {Coma, R and Ribes, M and Serrano, E and Jiménez, E and Salat, J and Pascual, J}, title = {Global warming-enhanced stratification and mass mortality events in the Mediterranean.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {15}, pages = {6176-6181}, pmid = {19332777}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biomass ; Cnidaria ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Mediterranean Sea ; Models, Biological ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Summer conditions in the Mediterranean Sea are characterized by high temperatures and low food availability. This leads to "summer dormancy" in many benthic suspension feeders due to energetic constraints. Analysis of the most recent 33-year temperature time series demonstrated enhanced stratification due to global warming, which produced a approximately 40% lengthening of summer conditions. Many biological processes are expected to be affected by this trend, culminating in such events as mass mortality of invertebrates. Climatic anomalies concomitant with the occurrence of these events represent prolonged exposure to warmer summer conditions coupled with reduced food resources. Simulation of the effects of these conditions on a model organism demonstrated a biomass loss of >35%. Losses of this magnitude result in mortality similar to that noted in field observations during mass mortality events. These results indicate that temperature anomalies are the underlying cause of the events, with energetic constraints serving as the main triggering mechanism.}, }
@article {pmid19331244, year = {2009}, author = {Parkinson, AJ and Berner, J}, title = {Climate change and impacts on human health in the Arctic: an international workshop on emerging threats and the response of Arctic communities to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {68}, number = {1}, pages = {84-91}, doi = {10.3402/ijch.v68i1.18295}, pmid = {19331244}, issn = {1239-9736}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Planning ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid19331237, year = {2009}, author = {Kovats, RS}, title = {Adapting to climate change--what should the health sector be doing?.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {68}, number = {1}, pages = {6-7}, doi = {10.3402/ijch.v68i1.18298}, pmid = {19331237}, issn = {1239-9736}, mesh = {Environmental Health ; Europe ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Planning ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid19325083, year = {2009}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. Arctic summer sea ice could vanish soon but not suddenly.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {323}, number = {5922}, pages = {1655}, doi = {10.1126/science.323.5922.1655}, pmid = {19325083}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19324824, year = {2009}, author = {McInerny, GJ and Turner, JR and Wong, HY and Travis, JM and Benton, TG}, title = {How range shifts induced by climate change affect neutral evolution.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {276}, number = {1661}, pages = {1527-1534}, pmid = {19324824}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; *Demography ; Extinction, Biological ; Genetic Variation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; Mutation ; }, abstract = {We investigate neutral evolution during range shifts in a strategic model of a metapopulation occupying a climate gradient. Using heritable, neutral markers, we track the spatio-temporal fate of lineages. Owing to iterated founder effects ('mutation surfing'), survival of lineages derived from the leading range limit is enhanced. At trailing limits, where habitat suitability decreases, survival is reduced (mutations 'wipe out'). These processes alter (i) the spatial spread of mutations, (ii) origins of persisting mutations and (iii) the generation of diversity. We show that large changes in neutral evolution can be a direct consequence of range shifting.}, }
@article {pmid19324811, year = {2009}, author = {Anderson, BJ and Akçakaya, HR and Araújo, MB and Fordham, DA and Martinez-Meyer, E and Thuiller, W and Brook, BW}, title = {Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {276}, number = {1661}, pages = {1415-1420}, pmid = {19324811}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Computer Simulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hares/*physiology ; *Models, Biological ; *Population Dynamics ; Rabbits/*physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {We link spatially explicit climate change predictions to a dynamic metapopulation model. Predictions of species' responses to climate change, incorporating metapopulation dynamics and elements of dispersal, allow us to explore the range margin dynamics for two lagomorphs of conservation concern. Although the lagomorphs have very different distribution patterns, shifts at the edge of the range were more pronounced than shifts in the overall metapopulation. For Romerolagus diazi (volcano rabbit), the lower elevation range limit shifted upslope by approximately 700 m. This reduced the area occupied by the metapopulation, as the mountain peak currently lacks suitable vegetation. For Lepus timidus (European mountain hare), we modelled the British metapopulation. Increasing the dispersive estimate caused the metapopulation to shift faster on the northern range margin (leading edge). By contrast, it caused the metapopulation to respond to climate change slower, rather than faster, on the southern range margin (trailing edge). The differential responses of the leading and trailing range margins and the relative sensitivity of range limits to climate change compared with that of the metapopulation centroid have important implications for where conservation monitoring should be targeted. Our study demonstrates the importance and possibility of moving from simple bioclimatic envelope models to second-generation models that incorporate both dynamic climate change and metapopulation dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid19324767, year = {2009}, author = {Byrne, M and Ho, M and Selvakumaraswamy, P and Nguyen, HD and Dworjanyn, SA and Davis, AR}, title = {Temperature, but not pH, compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {276}, number = {1663}, pages = {1883-1888}, pmid = {19324767}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Fertilization/physiology ; Gastrulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Sea Urchins/embryology/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Seawater/chemistry ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20-26 degrees C, pH 7.6-8.2) were tested in all combinations for the 'business-as-usual' scenario, with 20 degrees C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4 degrees C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6 degrees C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6 degrees C. At 26 degrees C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.}, }
@article {pmid19324660, year = {2009}, author = {Barbet-Massin, M and Walther, BA and Thuiller, W and Rahbek, C and Jiguet, F}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {248-251}, pmid = {19324660}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; *Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Passeriformes ; Population Dynamics ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is -13 per cent (from -97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500+/-373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa.}, }
@article {pmid19324451, year = {2009}, author = {Yuan, JS and Himanen, SJ and Holopainen, JK and Chen, F and Stewart, CN}, title = {Smelling global climate change: mitigation of function for plant volatile organic compounds.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {323-331}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2009.01.012}, pmid = {19324451}, issn = {0169-5347}, mesh = {Animals ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Insecta ; Plants/*metabolism ; Volatile Organic Compounds/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Plant volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have important roles in plant adaptation to the environment and serve as infochemicals in multitrophic interactions. Global climate change factors, such as increased atmospheric carbon dioxide, ozone and temperature, could alter how insects perceive such compounds. Here we review recent research on the influence of climate change parameters on the ecological functions of VOCs, with specific focus on terpenoids, the best-characterized VOCs. We summarize how emission patterns and concentrations of VOCs could change in future environments, mainly from the perspectives of plant defense and stress responses. We discuss how higher carbon dioxide concentrations, elevated ozone levels and increased temperatures could affect the biological functions of VOCs, particularly their role in plant defense.}, }
@article {pmid19323170, year = {2009}, author = {Baskett, ML and Gaines, SD and Nisbet, RM}, title = {Symbiont diversity may help coral reefs survive moderate climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {3-17}, doi = {10.1890/08-0139.1}, pmid = {19323170}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/physiology ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature ; Models, Biological ; *Symbiosis ; }, abstract = {Given climate change, thermal stress-related mass coral-bleaching events present one of the greatest anthropogenic threats to coral reefs. While corals and their symbiotic algae may respond to future temperatures through genetic adaptation and shifts in community compositions, the climate may change too rapidly for coral response. To test this potential for response, here we develop a model of coral and symbiont ecological dynamics and symbiont evolutionary dynamics. Model results without variation in symbiont thermal tolerance predict coral reef collapse within decades under multiple future climate scenarios, consistent with previous threshold-based predictions. However, model results with genetic or community-level variation in symbiont thermal tolerance can predict coral reef persistence into the next century, provided low enough greenhouse gas emissions occur. Therefore, the level of greenhouse gas emissions will have a significant effect on the future of coral reefs, and accounting for biodiversity and biological dynamics is vital to estimating the size of this effect.}, }
@article {pmid19320159, year = {2009}, author = {Andersen, MP and Blake, DR and Rowland, FS and Hurley, MD and Wallington, TJ}, title = {Atmospheric chemistry of sulfuryl fluoride: reaction with OH radicals, Cl atoms and O3, atmospheric lifetime, IR spectrum, and global warming potential.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {1067-1070}, doi = {10.1021/es802439f}, pmid = {19320159}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air/analysis ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Chlorides/*chemistry ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hydroxyl Radical/*chemistry ; Kinetics ; Ozone/*chemistry ; Spectrophotometry, Infrared ; Sulfinic Acids/*chemistry ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2) is a radiatively active industrial chemical released into the atmosphere in significant (ktonne/ year) quantities. The potential for SO2F2 to contribute to radiative forcing of climate change needs to be assessed. Long path length FTIR/smog chamber techniques were used to investigate the kinetics of the gas-phase reactions of Cl atoms, OH radicals, and O3 with SO2F2, in 700 Torr total pressure of air or N2 at 296 +/- 1 K. Upper limits of k(Cl + SO2F2) < 9 x 10(-19), k(OH + SO2F2) < 1.7 x 10(-14) and k(O3 + SO2F2) < 5.5 x 10(-24) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1) were determined. Reaction with Cl atoms, OH radicals, or O3 does not provide an efficient removal mechanism for SO2F2. The infrared spectrum of SO2F2 is reported and a radiative efficiency of 0.196 W m(-2) ppbv(-1) was calculated. Historic production data estimates are presented which provide an upper limit for expected atmospheric concentrations. The radiative forcing of climate change associated with emissions of SO2F2 depends critically on the atmospheric lifetime of SO2F2. Further research is urgently needed to define the magnitude of potential nonatmospheric sinks.}, }
@article {pmid19320157, year = {2009}, author = {Millet, DB and Atlas, EL and Blake, DR and Blake, NJ and Diskin, GS and Holloway, JS and Hudman, RC and Meinardi, S and Ryerson, TB and Sachse, GW}, title = {Halocarbon emissions from the United States and Mexico and their global warming potential.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {1055-1060}, doi = {10.1021/es802146j}, pmid = {19320157}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Carbon Monoxide/analysis ; Chlorofluorocarbons/analysis ; Chlorofluorocarbons, Ethane ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hydrocarbons, Halogenated/*analysis ; Hydroxyl Radical/analysis ; Mexico ; Trichloroethanes/analysis ; United States ; }, abstract = {We use recent aircraft measurements of a comprehensive suite of anthropogenic halocarbons, carbon monoxide (CO), and related tracers to place new constraints on North American halocarbon emissions and quantify their global warming potential. Using a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) we find that the ensemble of observations are consistent with our prior best estimate of the U.S. anthropogenic CO source, but suggest a 30% underestimate of Mexican emissions. We develop an optimized CO emission inventory on this basis and quantify halocarbon emissions from their measured enhancements relative to CO. Emissions continue for many compounds restricted under the Montreal Protocol, and we show that halocarbons make up an important fraction of the total greenhouse gas source for both countries: our best estimate is 9% (uncertainty range 6-12%) and 32% (21-52%) of equivalent CO2 emissions for the U.S. and Mexico, respectively, on a 20 year time scale. Performance of bottom-up emission inventories is variable, with underestimates for some compounds and overestimates for others. Ongoing methylchloroform emissions are significant in the U.S. (2.8 Gg/y in 2004-2006), in contrast to bottom-up estimates (< 0.05 Gg), with implications for tropospheric OH calculations. Mexican methylchloroform emissions are minor.}, }
@article {pmid19307269, year = {2009}, author = {Moszynski, P}, title = {Climate change could overwhelm relief agencies, experts warn.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {338}, number = {}, pages = {b1229}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.b1229}, pmid = {19307269}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Disaster Planning ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; *Relief Work ; }, }
@article {pmid19304359, year = {2009}, author = {Gao, Y and Drange, H and Johannessen, OM and Pettersson, LH}, title = {Sources and pathways of 90Sr in the North Atlantic-Arctic region: present day and global warming.}, journal = {Journal of environmental radioactivity}, volume = {100}, number = {5}, pages = {375-395}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvrad.2009.01.003}, pmid = {19304359}, issn = {1879-1700}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Atlantic Ocean ; Cesium Radioisotopes/analysis ; Computer Simulation ; *Models, Theoretical ; Radiation Monitoring/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Radioactive Pollutants/*analysis ; Strontium Radioisotopes/*analysis ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides (137)Cs and (90)Sr, originating from nuclear bomb testing, the Sellafield reprocessing plant in the Irish Sea (UK), and from the Ob and Yenisey river discharges to the Arctic Ocean, have been simulated using the global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysis fields for the period of 1948-1999. Comparison of the temporal evolution of the observed and the simulated concentrations of (90)Sr has been performed in the Kara Sea. The relative contributions of the different sources on the temporal and spatial distributions of the surface (90)Sr are quantified over the simulated period. It follows that the Ob river discharge dominated the surface (90)Sr over most of the Arctic Ocean and along the eastern and western coasts of Greenland before 1960. During the period of 1980-1990, the atmospheric fallout and the Ob river discharge were equally important for the (90)Sr distribution in the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, an attempt has been made to explore the possible dispersion of accidental released (90)Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers under a global warming scenario (2 x CO(2)). The difference between the present-day and the global warming scenario runs indicates that more of the released (90)Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is confined to the Arctic Ocean in the global warming run, particularly in the near coastal, non-European part of the Arctic Ocean.}, }
@article {pmid19302280, year = {2009}, author = {Malka, A and Krosnick, JA and Langer, G}, title = {The association of knowledge with concern about global warming: trusted information sources shape public thinking.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {29}, number = {5}, pages = {633-647}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01220.x}, pmid = {19302280}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; *Information Services ; *Knowledge ; Politics ; *Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {During the last decade, a great deal of news media attention has focused on informing the American public about scientific findings on global warming (GW). Has learning this sort of information led the American public to become more concerned about GW? Using data from two surveys of nationally representative samples of American adults, this article shows that the relation between self-reported knowledge and concern about GW is more complex than what previous research has suggested. Among people who trust scientists to provide reliable information about the environment and among Democrats and Independents, increased knowledge has been associated with increased concern. But among people who are skeptical about scientists and among Republicans more knowledge was generally not associated with greater concern. The association of knowledge with concern among Democrats and Independents who trust scientists was mediated by perceptions of consensus among scientists about GW's existence and by perceptions that humans are a principal cause of GW. Moreover, additional analyses of panel survey data produced findings consistent with the notion that more knowledge yields more concern among Democrats and Independents, but not among Republicans. Thus, when studying the relation of knowledge and concern, it is important to take into account the content of the information that different types of people acquire and choose to rely upon.}, }
@article {pmid19299589, year = {2009}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Global warming: Projections of climate change go from bad to worse, scientists report.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {323}, number = {5921}, pages = {1546-1547}, doi = {10.1126/science.323.5921.1546}, pmid = {19299589}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Carbon ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice Cover ; }, }
@article {pmid19299399, year = {2009}, author = {Jensen, GK}, title = {Taking the reins of the white horse of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of epidemiology and community health}, volume = {63}, number = {4}, pages = {269-270}, doi = {10.1136/jech.2008.083691}, pmid = {19299399}, issn = {1470-2738}, mesh = {*Climate Change ; *Health Policy ; Health Promotion/methods ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid19296793, year = {2009}, author = {Russell, RC and Currie, BJ and Lindsay, MD and Mackenzie, JS and Ritchie, SA and Whelan, PI}, title = {Dengue and climate change in Australia: predictions for the future should incorporate knowledge from the past.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {190}, number = {5}, pages = {265-268}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.2009.tb02393.x}, pmid = {19296793}, issn = {0025-729X}, mesh = {Aedes ; Animals ; Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate ; Dengue/*epidemiology/transmission ; Disease Reservoirs/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Insect Vectors ; Mosquito Control ; Population Surveillance ; }, abstract = {Dengue transmission in Australia is currently restricted to Queensland, where the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is established. Locally acquired infections have been reported only from urban areas in the north-east of the state, where the vector is most abundant. Considerable attention has been drawn to the potential impact of climate change on dengue distribution within Australia, with projections for substantial rises in incidence and distribution associated with increasing temperatures. However, historical data show that much of Australia has previously sustained both the vector mosquito and dengue viruses. Although current vector distribution is restricted to Queensland, the area inhabited by A. aegypti is larger than the disease-transmission areas, and is not restricted by temperature (or vector-control programs); thus, it is unlikely that rising temperatures alone will bring increased vector or virus distribution. Factors likely to be important to dengue and vector distribution in the future include increased dengue activity in Asian and Pacific nations that would raise rates of virus importation by travellers, importation of vectors via international ports to regions without A. aegypti, higher rates of domestic collection and storage of water that would provide habitat in urban areas, and growing human populations in northern Australia. Past and recent successful control initiatives in Australia lend support to the idea that well resourced and functioning surveillance programs, and effective public health intervention capabilities, are essential to counter threats from dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases. Models projecting future activity of dengue (or other vector-borne disease) with climate change should carefully consider the local historical and contemporary data on the ecology and distribution of the vector and local virus transmission.}, }
@article {pmid19295572, year = {2009}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {America's long hard road to climate-change law.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {458}, number = {7236}, pages = {266-267}, doi = {10.1038/458266a}, pmid = {19295572}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid19294908, year = {2009}, author = {Telemeco, RS and Elphick, MJ and Shine, R}, title = {Nesting lizards (Bassiana duperreyi) compensate partly, but not completely, for climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {90}, number = {1}, pages = {17-22}, doi = {10.1890/08-1452.1}, pmid = {19294908}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Lizards/*physiology ; Male ; Nesting Behavior/*physiology ; Oviposition ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Species in which ambient temperatures directly determine offspring sex may be at particular risk as global climates change. Whether or not climate change affects sex ratio depends upon the effectiveness of buffering mechanisms that link ambient regimes to actual nest temperatures. For example, females may simply lay nests earlier in the season, or in more shaded areas, such that incubation thermal regimes are unchanged despite massive ambient fluctuation. Based on eight years of monitoring nests over a 10-year period in the field at an alpine site in southeastern Australia, we show that, even though lizards (Bassiana duperreyi, Scincidae) have adjusted both nest depth and seasonal timing of oviposition in response to rising ambient temperatures, they have been unable to compensate entirely for climate change. That inability stems from the fact that the seasonal progression of soil temperatures, and thus, the degree to which thermal regimes at the time of laying predict subsequent conditions during incubation, also has shifted with climate change. As a result, mean incubation temperatures in natural nests now have crossed the thermal threshold at which incubation temperature directly affects offspring sex in this population.}, }
@article {pmid19289578, year = {2009}, author = {Challinor, AJ and Ewert, F and Arnold, S and Simelton, E and Fraser, E}, title = {Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {60}, number = {10}, pages = {2775-2789}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erp062}, pmid = {19289578}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/*physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Assessments of the relationships between crop productivity and climate change rely upon a combination of modelling and measurement. As part of this review, this relationship is discussed in the context of crop and climate simulation. Methods for linking these two types of models are reviewed, with a primary focus on large-area crop modelling techniques. Recent progress in simulating the impacts of climate change on crops is presented, and the application of these methods to the exploration of adaptation options is discussed. Specific advances include ensemble simulations and improved understanding of biophysical processes. Finally, the challenges associated with impacts and adaptation research are discussed. It is argued that the generation of knowledge for policy and adaptation should be based not only on syntheses of published studies, but also on a more synergistic and holistic research framework that includes: (i) reliable quantification of uncertainty; (ii) techniques for combining diverse modelling approaches and observations that focus on fundamental processes; and (iii) judicious choice and calibration of models, including simulation at appropriate levels of complexity that accounts for the principal drivers of crop productivity, which may well include both biophysical and socio-economic factors. It is argued that such a framework will lead to reliable methods for linking simulation to real-world adaptation options, thus making practical use of the huge global effort to understand and predict climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19286554, year = {2009}, author = {Montes-Hugo, M and Doney, SC and Ducklow, HW and Fraser, W and Martinson, D and Stammerjohn, SE and Schofield, O}, title = {Recent changes in phytoplankton communities associated with rapid regional climate change along the western Antarctic Peninsula.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {323}, number = {5920}, pages = {1470-1473}, doi = {10.1126/science.1164533}, pmid = {19286554}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Biomass ; Chlorophyll/*analysis ; Chlorophyll A ; *Cold Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Euphausiacea ; Geography ; Ice Cover ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton/cytology/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; *Seawater/chemistry ; Spheniscidae ; Temperature ; Wind ; }, abstract = {The climate of the western shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is undergoing a transition from a cold-dry polar-type climate to a warm-humid sub-Antarctic-type climate. Using three decades of satellite and field data, we document that ocean biological productivity, inferred from chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), has significantly changed along the WAP shelf. Summertime surface Chl a (summer integrated Chl a approximately 63% of annually integrated Chl a) declined by 12% along the WAP over the past 30 years, with the largest decreases equatorward of 63 degrees S and with substantial increases in Chl a occurring farther south. The latitudinal variation in Chl a trends reflects shifting patterns of ice cover, cloud formation, and windiness affecting water-column mixing. Regional changes in phytoplankton coincide with observed changes in krill (Euphausia superba) and penguin populations.}, }
@article {pmid19286540, year = {2009}, author = {Toggweiler, JR}, title = {Climate change. Shifting westerlies.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {323}, number = {5920}, pages = {1434-1435}, doi = {10.1126/science.1169823}, pmid = {19286540}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid19281526, year = {2009}, author = {Reyes-García, C and Andrade, JL}, title = {Crassulacean acid metabolism under global climate change.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {181}, number = {4}, pages = {754-757}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2009.02762.x}, pmid = {19281526}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate Change ; *Ecology ; Extinction, Biological ; Genetic Variation ; Plants/genetics/*metabolism ; Population Dynamics ; }, }
@article {pmid19277107, year = {2009}, author = {Berrang-Ford, L and Maclean, JD and Gyorkos, TW and Ford, JD and Ogden, NH}, title = {Climate change and malaria in Canada: a systems approach.}, journal = {Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases}, volume = {2009}, number = {}, pages = {385487}, pmid = {19277107}, issn = {1687-708X}, abstract = {This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19277106, year = {2009}, author = {Gray, JS and Dautel, H and Estrada-Peña, A and Kahl, O and Lindgren, E}, title = {Effects of climate change on ticks and tick-borne diseases in europe.}, journal = {Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases}, volume = {2009}, number = {}, pages = {593232}, pmid = {19277106}, issn = {1687-708X}, abstract = {Zoonotic tick-borne diseases are an increasing health burden in Europe and there is speculation that this is partly due to climate change affecting vector biology and disease transmission. Data on the vector tick Ixodes ricinus suggest that an extension of its northern and altitude range has been accompanied by an increased prevalence of tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change may also be partly responsible for the change in distribution of Dermacentor reticulatus. Increased winter activity of I. ricinus is probably due to warmer winters and a retrospective study suggests that hotter summers will change the dynamics and pattern of seasonal activity, resulting in the bulk of the tick population becoming active in the latter part of the year. Climate suitability models predict that eight important tick species are likely to establish more northern permanent populations in a climate-warming scenario. However, the complex ecology and epidemiology of such tick-borne diseases as Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis make it difficult to implicate climate change as the main cause of their increasing prevalence. Climate change models are required that take account of the dynamic biological processes involved in vector abundance and pathogen transmission in order to predict future tick-borne disease scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid19273227, year = {2009}, author = {Estrada-Pena, A}, title = {Tick-borne pathogens, transmission rates and climate change.}, journal = {Frontiers in bioscience (Landmark edition)}, volume = {14}, number = {7}, pages = {2674-2687}, doi = {10.2741/3405}, pmid = {19273227}, issn = {2768-6698}, mesh = {Animals ; *Arachnid Vectors ; *Climate ; Tick-Borne Diseases/microbiology/*transmission/virology ; Ticks/*microbiology/*virology ; }, abstract = {Ticks are parasites that expend most of their life cycles off the host. Most important parts of the tick life cycle are directly dependent upon climate. There exist some concerns about the effects of the forecasted climate change on the geographical distribution of ticks. As tick life cycle dynamics would also be affected, the transmission of tick-borne pathogens could also be transformed by climate trends. Tick cycles are the result of complex interactions between climate, hosts populations, landscape characteristics, and the fine modulation of the populations of every partner involved, and not a simple, straightforward correlation between abundance and climate. The understanding of the climate niche used by different tick species may help in the search of clues towards a clarification of the expected effects of climate changes on the reported tick range shift. Populations of ticks occupying different portions of a wide geographical range may use different "portions" of the climate envelope, therefore resulting in misinterpretations from modeling results. Some advances can be foreseen in the complex task of modeling tick-host-pathogen interactions.}, }
@article {pmid19272683, year = {2009}, author = {Lamon, L and Dalla Valle, M and Critto, A and Marcomini, A}, title = {Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {157}, number = {7}, pages = {1971-1980}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2009.02.016}, pmid = {19272683}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Environmental Monitoring/methods/standards ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Organic Chemicals/*analysis ; Waste Management/standards ; }, abstract = {This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed. Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies. Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management.}, }
@article {pmid19271999, year = {2009}, author = {Dereure, J and Vanwambeke, SO and Malé, P and Martinez, S and Pratlong, F and Balard, Y and Dedet, JP}, title = {The potential effects of global warming on changes in canine leishmaniasis in a focus outside the classical area of the disease in southern France.}, journal = {Vector borne and zoonotic diseases (Larchmont, N.Y.)}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {687-694}, doi = {10.1089/vbz.2008.0126}, pmid = {19271999}, issn = {1557-7759}, mesh = {Animals ; Antibodies, Protozoan ; Climate Change ; Dog Diseases/blood/*epidemiology/*parasitology/prevention &amp; control ; Dogs ; Ecosystem ; France/epidemiology ; Insect Vectors/*parasitology ; Insecticides/administration &amp; dosage ; Leishmania infantum/immunology/isolation &amp; purification ; Leishmaniasis/blood/prevention &amp; control ; Leishmaniasis, Visceral/blood/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/*veterinary ; Lymph Nodes/parasitology ; Nitriles/administration &amp; dosage ; Phlebotomus/*parasitology ; Pyrethrins/administration &amp; dosage ; }, abstract = {In 1994, an ecoepidemiologic study was carried out in the mid-Ariège valley (French Pyrenees) where autochthonous cases of canine leishmaniasis had been previously reported. Serologic samples were collected from 336 dogs in two groups of villages. The seroprevalences were 11.67% in the valley villages and only 1.43% in the foothill villages. Five lymph node biopsies were taken from serologically positive dogs, and resultant isolates were identified as Leishmania infantum zymodeme MON-1. Phlebotomine sandflies were collected in five locations by CDC light traps. Both of the known French vectors, Phlebotomus ariasi and P. perniciosus, were identified. Bioclimatic and floristic studies showed that this area is an enclave of the supra-Mediterranean climatic zone, containing a typically xerothermophilic Mediterranean flora. The Pyrenees Mountains are usually considered to be outside of the endemic range of leishmaniasis in southern France, and so our demonstration of a microfocus of canine leishmaniasis in the northern foothills is noteworthy. A second serologic survey carried out in 2007 (216 dogs) showed an inversion of the seropositive rates between the two groups of villages compared with those of 1994: only 2.72% in the valley villages and 11.32% in the foothills villages. The decrease of seroprevalence in the first area (valley villages) can be related to a considerable use of deltamethrin collars during the transmission season. The increase of seroprevalence of the foothill villages could be related to climatic conditions, since there was an increase of about 1 degrees C in the mean annual temperature.}, }
@article {pmid19271593, year = {2009}, author = {Lister, AM}, title = {The biotic effects of climate change.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {14-15}, pmid = {19271593}, issn = {1470-2118}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {Humans are part of the biosphere and dependent upon it. The impact of climate change on 'ecosystem services' is therefore of extreme concern. Many studies demonstrate unequivocally that global warming is shifting the distribution of animal and plant species, affecting the composition not only of natural ecosystems but of agricultural ones as well, and also altering the range and impact of pathogenic organisms. The future trajectory of such complex processes is hard to map accurately, but even conservative estimates predict substantial species extinctions and changes in regional productivity. There is still a chance to significantly mitigate these effects, however, if urgent measures are taken. The biotic effects of climate change are strongly exacerbated by ongoing habitat destruction, which no less urgently needs to be halted or reversed by concerted international action. In terms of its rate and its human causation, the present crisis is not analogous to past 'natural' events.}, }
@article {pmid19270781, year = {2009}, author = {Ziska, LH and Epstein, PR and Schlesinger, WH}, title = {Rising CO(2), climate change, and public health: exploring the links to plant biology.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {2}, pages = {155-158}, pmid = {19270781}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Plants/*metabolism ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although the issue of anthropogenic climate forcing and public health is widely recognized, one fundamental aspect has remained underappreciated: the impact of climatic change on plant biology and the well-being of human systems.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: We aimed to critically evaluate the extant and probable links between plant function and human health, drawing on the pertinent literature.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Here we provide a number of critical examples that range over various health concerns related to plant biology and climate change, including aerobiology, contact dermatitis, pharmacology, toxicology, and pesticide use.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: There are a number of clear links among climate change, plant biology, and public health that remain underappreciated by both plant scientists and health care providers. We demonstrate the importance of such links in our understanding of climate change impacts and provide a list of key questions that will help to integrate plant biology into the current paradigm regarding climate change and human health.}, }
@article {pmid19270772, year = {2009}, author = {Frazer, L}, title = {Climate change: will warmer soil be as fertile?.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {117}, number = {2}, pages = {A59}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.117-a59}, pmid = {19270772}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis ; Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Hot Temperature ; Soil/*analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid19270076, year = {2009}, author = {McDonald, J and Christensen, S and Deblinger, R and Woytek, W}, title = {An alternative to climate change for explaining species loss in Thoreau's woods.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {10}, pages = {E28; author reply E29}, pmid = {19270076}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Deer/physiology ; *Extinction, Biological ; Feeding Behavior ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Massachusetts ; Phylogeny ; Plants ; Trees/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid19267206, year = {2010}, author = {Ekercin, S and Ormeci, C}, title = {Evaluating climate change effects on water and salt resources in Salt Lake, Turkey using multitemporal SPOT imagery.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {163}, number = {1-4}, pages = {361-368}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-009-0840-x}, pmid = {19267206}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Salts ; Turkey ; *Water ; }, abstract = {The main goal of this study is to investigate the dimension of climate change effects in Salt Lake and its vicinity in Turkey using satellite remote sensing data. The first stage of the study includes evaluation of the multitemporal climatic data on the Salt Lake Basin Area, Turkey for a period of 35 years (1970-2005). The changes in mean temperature and precipitation are evaluated for the study area by comparing two periods, 1970-1992 and 1993-2005. In the second stage, the effects of climate changes in the Salt Lake are investigated by evaluating water and salt reserve changes through seasonal and multitemporal SPOT imagery collected in 1987 and 2005. The climatic data and remotely sensed and treated satellite images show that water and salt reserve in Salt Lake has decreased between 1987 and 2005 due to drought and uncontrolled water usage. It is suggested that the use of water supplies, especially underground waters, around the Salt Lake should be controlled and the lake should regularly be monitored by current remote sensing data for an effective management of water and salt resources in the region.}, }
@article {pmid19261213, year = {2009}, author = {Capon, AG and Synnott, ES and Holliday, S}, title = {Urbanism, climate change and health: systems approaches to governance.}, journal = {New South Wales public health bulletin}, volume = {20}, number = {1-2}, pages = {24-28}, doi = {10.1071/nb08059}, pmid = {19261213}, issn = {1034-7674}, mesh = {Australia ; *Environment Design ; Environmental Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Government Regulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Policy ; Health Status ; Humans ; United Kingdom ; Urban Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Effective action on climate change health impacts and vulnerability will require systems approaches and integrated policy and planning responses from a range of government agencies. Similar responses are needed to address other complex problems, such as the obesity epidemic. Local government, with its focus on the governance of place, will have a key role in responding to these convergent agendas. Industry can also be part of the solution - indeed it must be, because it has a lead role in relevant sectors. Understanding the co-benefits for health of climate mitigation actions will strengthen the case for early action. There is a need for improved decision support tools to inform urban governance. These tools should be based on a systems approach and should incorporate a spatial perspective.}, }
@article {pmid19261211, year = {2009}, author = {Dixon, JM and Donati, KJ and Pike, LL and Hattersley, L}, title = {Functional foods and urban agriculture: two responses to climate change-related food insecurity.}, journal = {New South Wales public health bulletin}, volume = {20}, number = {1-2}, pages = {14-18}, doi = {10.1071/nb08044}, pmid = {19261211}, issn = {1034-7674}, mesh = {Agriculture/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Australia ; *Environmental Health ; Feeding Behavior ; Food Supply/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Food, Organic ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Interpersonal Relations ; Nutritional Status ; Urban Population/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Affluent diets have negative effects on the health of the population and the environment. Moreover, the ability of industrialised agricultural ecosystems to continue to supply these diets is threatened by the anticipated consequences of climate change. By challenging the ongoing supply the diets of affluent countries, climate change provides a population and environmental health opportunity. This paper contrasts two strategies for dealing with climate change-related food insecurity. Functional foods are being positioned as one response because they are considered a hyper-efficient mechanism for supplying essential micronutrients. An alternative response is civic and urban agriculture. Rather than emphasising increased economic or nutritional efficiencies, civic agriculture presents a holistic approach to food security that is more directly connected to the economic, environmental and social factors that affect diet and health.}, }
@article {pmid19261210, year = {2009}, author = {Rissel, CE}, title = {Active travel: a climate change mitigation strategy with co-benefits for health.}, journal = {New South Wales public health bulletin}, volume = {20}, number = {1-2}, pages = {10-13}, doi = {10.1071/nb08043}, pmid = {19261210}, issn = {1034-7674}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Atmosphere ; Australia ; Bicycling ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis/chemistry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; Interpersonal Relations ; Motor Activity ; New South Wales ; *Public Sector ; *Transportation ; Walking ; }, abstract = {Reducing the burning of fossil fuels for transport will help reduce the rate of climate change and the severity of the impact of climate change. The alternatives to private motor vehicles include active travel modes such as walking, cycling and use of public transport. While simultaneously reducing carbon dioxide emissions and traffic congestion, active transport leads to increased levels of physical activity and social interaction. This article summarises a number of NSW active travel initiatives. Despite some positive steps in NSW, other Australian states have invested far more and can demonstrate greater changes in travel behaviour.}, }
@article {pmid19261209, year = {2009}, author = {Kjellstrom, T and Weaver, HJ}, title = {Climate change and health: impacts, vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation.}, journal = {New South Wales public health bulletin}, volume = {20}, number = {1-2}, pages = {5-9}, doi = {10.1071/nb08053}, pmid = {19261209}, issn = {1034-7674}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Adaptation, Psychological ; Australia ; *Climate ; *Environmental Health ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; New South Wales ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is progressing and health impacts have been observed in a number of countries, including Australia. The main health impacts will be due to direct heat exposure, extreme weather, air pollution, reduced local food production, food- and vectorborne infectious diseases and mental stress. The issue is one of major public health importance. Adaptation to reduce the effects of climate change involves many different sectors to minimise negative health outcomes. Wide-scale mitigation is also required, in order to reduce the effects of climate change. In addition, future urban design must be modified to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. Strategies for mitigation and adaptation can create co-benefits for both individual and community health, by reducing non-climate-related health hazard exposures and by encouraging health promoting behaviours and lifestyles.}, }
@article {pmid19261007, year = {2009}, author = {Muller, SA and Muller, IS}, title = {A message from the President of the International Society of Dermatology. Climate change and the International Society of Dermatology challenge for the 21st century.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {48}, number = {3}, pages = {225-226}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-4632.2009.04110.x}, pmid = {19261007}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Dermatology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Skin Diseases/*epidemiology ; Societies, Medical ; Zoonoses/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid19260340, year = {2009}, author = {Sjögersten, S and Wookey, PA}, title = {The impact of climate change on ecosystem carbon dynamics at the Scandinavian mountain birch forest-tundra heath ecotone.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {2-10}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-38.1.2}, pmid = {19260340}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Betula/*metabolism ; Carbon/analysis/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/analysis ; Photosynthesis ; Scandinavian and Nordic Countries ; Soil ; Temperature ; Trees/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Changes in temperature and moisture resulting from climate change are likely to strongly modify the ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity in high-latitude areas, both through vegetation shifts and via direct warming effects on photosynthesis and decomposition. This paper offers a synthesis of research addressing the potential impacts of climate warming on soil processes and carbon fluxes at the forest-tundra ecotone in Scandinavia. Our results demonstrated higher rates of organic matter decomposition in mountain birch forest than in tundra heath soils, with markedly shallower organic matter horizons in the forest. Field and laboratory experiments suggest that increased temperatures are likely to increase CO2 efflux from both tundra and forest soil providing moisture availability does not become limiting for the decomposition process. Furthermore, colonization of tundra heath by mountain birch forest would increase rates of decomposition, and thus CO2 emissions, from the tundra heath soils, which currently store substantial amounts of potentially labile carbon. Mesic soils underlying both forest and tundra heath are currently weak sinks of atmospheric methane, but the strength of this sink could be increased with climate warming and/or drying.}, }
@article {pmid19256109, year = {2009}, author = {Andrady, A and Aucamp, PJ and Bais, A and Ballaré, CL and Björn, LO and Bornman, JF and Caldwell, M and Cullen, AP and Erickson, DJ and de Gruijl, FR and Häder, DP and Ilyas, M and Kulandaivelu, G and Kumar, HD and Longstreth, J and McKenzie, RL and Norval, M and Paul, N and Redhwi, HH and Smith, RC and Solomon, KR and Sulzberger, B and Takizawa, Y and Tang, X and Teramura, AH and Torikai, A and van der Leun, JC and Wilson, SR and Worrest, RC and Zepp, RG and , }, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2008.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {13-22}, doi = {10.1039/b820432m}, pmid = {19256109}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Aerosols ; Animals ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Humans ; Ozone/*chemistry ; Sunlight ; }, abstract = {After the enthusiastic celebration of the 20th Anniversary of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in 2007, the work for the protection of the ozone layer continues. The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel is one of the three expert panels within the Montreal Protocol. This EEAP deals with the increase of the UV irradiance on the Earth's surface and its effects on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality and materials. For the past few years, interactions of ozone depletion with climate change have also been considered. It has become clear that the environmental problems will be long-lasting. In spite of the fact that the worldwide production of ozone depleting chemicals has already been reduced by 95%, the environmental disturbances are expected to persist for about the next half a century, even if the protective work is actively continued, and completed. The latest full report was published in Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2007, 6, 201-332, and the last progress report in Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2008, 7, 15-27. The next full report on environmental effects is scheduled for the year 2010. The present progress report 2008 is one of the short interim reports, appearing annually.}, }
@article {pmid19251989, year = {2009}, author = {Helmuth, B}, title = {From cells to coastlines: how can we use physiology to forecast the impacts of climate change?.}, journal = {The Journal of experimental biology}, volume = {212}, number = {Pt 6}, pages = {753-760}, doi = {10.1242/jeb.023861}, pmid = {19251989}, issn = {0022-0949}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Animals ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting/methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The interdisciplinary fields of conservation physiology, macrophysiology, and mechanistic ecological forecasting have recently emerged as means of integrating detailed physiological responses to the broader questions of ecological and evolutionary responses to global climate change. Bridging the gap between large-scale records of weather and climate (as measured by remote sensing platforms, buoys and ground-based weather stations) and the physical world as experienced by organisms (niche-level measurements) requires a mechanistic understanding of how ;environmental signals' (parameters such as air, surface and water temperature, food availability, water flow) are translated into signals at the scale of the organism or cell (e.g. body temperature, food capture, hydrodynamic force, aerobic capacity). Predicting the impacts of how changing environments affect populations and ecosystems further mandates an understanding of how organisms ;filter' these signals via their physiological response (e.g. whether they respond to high or low frequencies, whether there is a time lag in response, etc.) and must be placed within the context of adult movement and the dispersal of larvae and gametes. Recent studies have shown that patterns of physiological stress in nature are far more complex in space and time than previously assumed and challenge the long-held paradigm that patterns of biogeographic distribution can be based on simple environmental gradients. An integrative, systems-based approach can provide an understanding of the roles of environmental and physiological variability in driving ecological responses and can offer considerable insight and predictive capacity to researchers, resource managers and policy makers involved in planning for the current and future effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19251790, year = {2009}, author = {Ayres, JG and Forsberg, B and Annesi-Maesano, I and Dey, R and Ebi, KL and Helms, PJ and Medina-Ramón, M and Windt, M and Forastiere, F and , }, title = {Climate change and respiratory disease: European Respiratory Society position statement.}, journal = {The European respiratory journal}, volume = {34}, number = {2}, pages = {295-302}, doi = {10.1183/09031936.00003409}, pmid = {19251790}, issn = {1399-3003}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; Air Pollution, Indoor ; *Climate Change ; Environmental Exposure ; Europe ; Floods ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ozone ; Public Policy ; Respiration Disorders/diagnosis/*etiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change will affect individuals with pre-existing respiratory disease, but the extent of the effect remains unclear. The present position statement was developed on behalf of the European Respiratory Society in order to identify areas of concern arising from climate change for individuals with respiratory disease, healthcare workers in the respiratory sector and policy makers. The statement was developed following a 2-day workshop held in Leuven (Belgium) in March 2008. Key areas of concern for the respiratory community arising from climate change are discussed and recommendations made to address gaps in knowledge. The most important recommendation was the development of more accurate predictive models for predicting the impact of climate change on respiratory health. Respiratory healthcare workers also have an advocatory role in persuading governments and the European Union to maintain awareness and appropriate actions with respect to climate change, and these areas are also discussed in the position statement.}, }
@article {pmid19251662, year = {2009}, author = {Smith, JB and Schneider, SH and Oppenheimer, M and Yohe, GW and Hare, W and Mastrandrea, MD and Patwardhan, A and Burton, I and Corfee-Morlot, J and Magadza, CH and Füssel, HM and Pittock, AB and Rahman, A and Suarez, A and van Ypersele, JP}, title = {Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern".}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {11}, pages = {4133-4137}, pmid = {19251662}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Air Pollution/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; Atmosphere ; Climate ; Dangerous Behavior ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 "reasons for concern" (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the "burning embers diagram." In presenting the "embers" in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 "reasons for concern."}, }
@article {pmid19220357, year = {2009}, author = {Cohan, FM}, title = {Tracking bacterial responses to global warming with an ecotype-based systematics.}, journal = {Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases}, volume = {15 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {54-59}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-0691.2008.02681.x}, pmid = {19220357}, issn = {1469-0691}, mesh = {Bacteria/*classification/genetics/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Biodiversity ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {The broadly defined species of bacterial systematics frequently contain unnamed and unrecognized populations (ecotypes) differing in physiology, genome content, and ecology. Without formal recognition of such ecotypes, it is difficult for microbial ecologists to detect replacement of one ecotype by another in the face of global warming. The ecotype simulation algorithm has proved capable of supporting investigation of such replacements, as it has detected temperature-distinguished ecotypes that are invisible to the present bacterial systematics. Creating an ecotype-based systematics will help to identify the units of diversity that we will want to track as we seek to observe the early microbial responses to global warming.}, }
@article {pmid19245493, year = {2009}, author = {McClanahan, TR and Cinner, JE and Graham, NA and Daw, TM and Maina, J and Stead, SM and Wamukota, A and Brown, K and Venus, V and Polunin, NV}, title = {Identifying reefs of hope and hopeful actions: contextualizing environmental, ecological, and social parameters to respond effectively to climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {662-671}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01154.x}, pmid = {19245493}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Coral Reefs ; Humans ; Indian Ocean Islands ; Kenya ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Social Change ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Species Specificity ; Tanzania ; }, abstract = {Priorities for conservation, management, and associated activities will differ based on the interplay between nearness of ecosystems to full recovery from a disturbance (pristineness), susceptibility to climate change (environmental susceptibility [ES]), and capacity of human communities to cope with and adapt to change (social adaptive capacity [AC]). We studied 24 human communities and adjacent coral reef ecosystems in 5 countries of the southwestern Indian Ocean. We used ecological measures of abundance and diversity of fishes and corals, estimated reef pristineness, and conducted socioeconomic household surveys to determine the AC of communities adjacent to selected coral reefs. We also used Web-based oceanographic and coral mortality data to predict each site's ES to climate warming. Coral reefs of Mauritius and eastern Madagascar had low ES and consequently were not predicted to be affected strongly by warm water, although these sites were differentiated by the AC of the human community. The higher AC in Mauritius may increase the chances for successful self-initiated recovery and protective management of reefs of this island. In contrast, Madagascar may require donor support to build AC as a prerequisite to preservation efforts. The Seychelles and Kenya had high ES, but their levels of AC and disturbance differed. The high AC in the Seychelles could be used to develop alternatives to dependence on coral reef resources and reduce the effects of climate change. Pristineness weighted toward measures of fish recovery was greatest for Kenya's marine protected areas; however, most protected areas in the region were far from pristine. Conservation priorities and actions with realistic chances for success require knowledge of where socioecological systems lie among the 3 axes of environment, ecology, and society.}, }
@article {pmid19245378, year = {2009}, author = {Colchero, F and Medellin, RA and Clark, JS and Lee, R and Katul, GG}, title = {Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {78}, number = {3}, pages = {666-673}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01528.x}, pmid = {19245378}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; *Droughts ; Extinction, Biological ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Mexico ; Monte Carlo Method ; Population Dynamics ; Sheep, Bighorn/*physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is essential to develop appropriate inferential methods that can make use of such data sets. 2. We studied a population of desert bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon Island, Mexico in 1975 and subjected to irregular extractions for the last 10 years. The unique attributes of this population are absence of predation and disease, thereby permitting us to explore the combined effect of density dependence, environmental variability and extraction in a 'controlled setting.' Using a combination of nonlinear discrete models with long-term field data, we constructed three basic Bayesian state space models with increasing density dependence (DD), and the same three models with the addition of summer drought effects. 3. We subsequently used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the combined effect of drought, DD, and increasing extractions on the probability of population survival under two climate change scenarios (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions): (i) increase in drought variability; and (ii) increase in mean drought severity. 4. The population grew from 16 individuals introduced in 1975 to close to 700 by 1993. Our results show that the population's growth was dominated by DD, with drought having a secondary but still relevant effect on its dynamics. 5. Our predictions suggest that under climate change scenario (i), extraction dominates the fate of the population, while for scenario (ii), an increase in mean drought affects the population's probability of survival in an equivalent magnitude as extractions. Thus, for the long-term survival of the population, our results stress that a more variable environment is less threatening than one in which the mean conditions become harsher. Current climate change scenarios and their underlying uncertainty make studies such as this one crucial for understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations and their conservation.}, }
@article {pmid19242465, year = {2009}, author = {Severinghaus, JP}, title = {Climate change: Southern see-saw seen.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {457}, number = {7233}, pages = {1093-1094}, pmid = {19242465}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Atlantic Ocean ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Ice Cover ; *Seawater/analysis ; *Temperature ; Water Movements ; }, }
@article {pmid19230929, year = {2009}, author = {Holt, SJ}, title = {Tackling the old familiar problems of pollution, habitat alteration and overfishing will help with adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {58}, number = {4}, pages = {635}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2009.01.008}, pmid = {19230929}, issn = {1879-3363}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries/*economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/standards ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Guidelines as Topic ; *Water Pollution ; }, }
@article {pmid19230265, year = {2008}, author = {Crate, SA}, title = {Gone the bull of winter? Grappling with the cultural implications of and anthropology's role(s) in global climate change.}, journal = {Current anthropology}, volume = {49}, number = {4}, pages = {569-595}, pmid = {19230265}, issn = {0011-3204}, mesh = {*Anthropology, Cultural ; Cold Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Siberia ; }, abstract = {Because global climate change is intimately linked to culture, anthropologists are strategically well-placed to interpret it, communicate information about it, and act in response to it both in the field and at home. Fieldworkers are increasingly encountering reports of the local effects of climate change from their research partners, and it is becoming apparent that indigenous peoples' recognized capacity for adaptation to change may not be sufficient to cope with these effects. Fieldwork among Viliui Sakha of northeastern Siberia suggests an action-oriented approach to anthropological climate change research that begins by developing cultural models of the local effects of global climate change, goes on to fill in the gaps with Western scientific knowledge, and ends with the dissemination of that information and its use for the development of adaptive strategies, policy recommendations, and advocacy.}, }
@article {pmid19091037, year = {2008}, author = {Reiter, P}, title = {Global warming and malaria: knowing the horse before hitching the cart.}, journal = {Malaria journal}, volume = {7 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S3}, pmid = {19091037}, issn = {1475-2875}, mesh = {Animals ; Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*growth &amp; development/parasitology ; Malaria/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Speculations on the potential impact of climate change on human health frequently focus on malaria. Predictions are common that in the coming decades, tens - even hundreds - of millions more cases will occur in regions where the disease is already present, and that transmission will extend to higher latitudes and altitudes. Such predictions, sometimes supported by simple models, are persuasive because they are intuitive, but they sidestep factors that are key to the transmission and epidemiology of the disease: the ecology and behaviour of both humans and vectors, and the immunity of the human population. A holistic view of the natural history of the disease, in the context of these factors and in the precise setting where it is transmitted, is the only valid starting point for assessing the likely significance of future changes in climate.}, }
@article {pmid19224274, year = {2009}, author = {Halsnaes, K and Traerup, S}, title = {Development and climate change: a mainstreaming approach for assessing economic, social, and environmental impacts of adaptation measures.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {43}, number = {5}, pages = {765-778}, pmid = {19224274}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; *Economics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Malaria/prevention &amp; control ; Models, Theoretical ; Mozambique ; *Public Policy ; Tanzania ; }, abstract = {The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.}, }
@article {pmid19218454, year = {2009}, author = {Malhi, Y and Aragão, LE and Galbraith, D and Huntingford, C and Fisher, R and Zelazowski, P and Sitch, S and McSweeney, C and Meir, P}, title = {Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {49}, pages = {20610-20615}, pmid = {19218454}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate Change ; Droughts ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Models, Biological ; *Rain ; Temperature ; Trees/*physiology ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {We examine the evidence for the possibility that 21st-century climate change may cause a large-scale "dieback" or degradation of Amazonian rainforest. We employ a new framework for evaluating the rainfall regime of tropical forests and from this deduce precipitation-based boundaries for current forest viability. We then examine climate simulations by 19 global climate models (GCMs) in this context and find that most tend to underestimate current rainfall. GCMs also vary greatly in their projections of future climate change in Amazonia. We attempt to take into account the differences between GCM-simulated and observed rainfall regimes in the 20th century. Our analysis suggests that dry-season water stress is likely to increase in E. Amazonia over the 21st century, but the region tends toward a climate more appropriate to seasonal forest than to savanna. These seasonal forests may be resilient to seasonal drought but are likely to face intensified water stress caused by higher temperatures and to be vulnerable to fires, which are at present naturally rare in much of Amazonia. The spread of fire ignition associated with advancing deforestation, logging, and fragmentation may act as nucleation points that trigger the transition of these seasonal forests into fire-dominated, low biomass forests. Conversely, deliberate limitation of deforestation and fire may be an effective intervention to maintain Amazonian forest resilience in the face of imposed 21st-century climate change. Such intervention may be enough to navigate E. Amazonia away from a possible "tipping point," beyond which extensive rainforest would become unsustainable.}, }
@article {pmid19213998, year = {2009}, author = {Thorne, OM and Fenner, RA}, title = {Risk-based climate-change impact assessment for the water industry.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {59}, number = {3}, pages = {443-451}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2009.877}, pmid = {19213998}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Australia ; Chlorophyll/analysis ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Industry ; Models, Statistical ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Rain ; Risk Assessment ; Rivers ; *Water ; }, abstract = {In response to a rapidly changing and highly variable climate, engineers are being asked to perform climate-change impact assessments on existing water industry systems. There is currently no single method of best practice for engineers to interpret output from global climate models (GCMs) and calculate probabilistic distributions of future climate changes as required for risk-based impact assessments. The simplified climate change impact assessment tool (SCIAT) has been developed to address the specific needs of the water industry and provides a tool to translate climate change projections into 'real world' impacts or for detailed statistical analysis. Through the use of SCIAT, water system operators are provided with knowledge of potential impacts and an associated probability of occurrence, enabling them to make informed, risk-based adaptation and planning decisions. This paper demonstrates the application of SCIAT to the consideration of the impacts of climate change on reservoir water quality under future climate scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid19213995, year = {2009}, author = {Kovács, A and Clement, A}, title = {Impacts of the climate change on runoff and diffuse phosphorus load to Lake Balaton (Hungary).}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {59}, number = {3}, pages = {417-423}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2009.883}, pmid = {19213995}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Air ; Diffusion ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hungary ; Phosphorus/*analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The paper outlines a multi-component assessment of the impacts of the climate change on runoff and total phosphorus loads to the large shallow Lake Balaton in Hungary. Present hydrological cycle of the lake catchment has been examined using the rainfall-runoff model WetSpa. Particular phosphorus concentration in runoff was estimated on the basis of the simulated streamflow using an empirical power equation. Dissolved phosphorus concentrations were determined as a function of landuse and soil type of the corresponding sub-catchment. The model was calibrated and validated against daily observations manually at monitoring sites of sixteen inflowing streams around the lake. Runoff stemming from shoreline urban developments was calculated by the urban runoff simulation model SWMM. Phosphorus concentrations in urban runoff were calculated by an empirical relationship derived from field measurements. The model was henceforward run for climate change scenario analysis. Present weather data were modified by the climate change scenarios imported from the results of the CLIME project. The results indicate that the impact of the climate change on runoff and phosphorus load appears in the change of the distribution within a time period rather than in the total volume. However, due to the high uncertainties in climate models, the presented calculations are possible assumptions rather than established statements.}, }
@article {pmid19213905, year = {2009}, author = {Williamson, CE and Saros, JE and Schindler, DW}, title = {Climate change. Sentinels of change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {323}, number = {5916}, pages = {887-888}, doi = {10.1126/science.1169443}, pmid = {19213905}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Carbon ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Fresh Water ; }, }
@article {pmid19213896, year = {2009}, author = {Franklin, CE and Seebacher, F}, title = {Adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {323}, number = {5916}, pages = {876-7; author reply 876-7}, doi = {10.1126/science.323.5916.876b}, pmid = {19213896}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate ; Fishes/physiology ; Phenotype ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid19207697, year = {2009}, author = {Budescu, DV and Broomell, S and Por, HH}, title = {Improving communication of uncertainty in the reports of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.}, journal = {Psychological science}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {299-308}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02284.x}, pmid = {19207697}, issn = {1467-9280}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; *Climate ; *Communication ; *Congresses as Topic ; Female ; *Government ; Humans ; *Interinstitutional Relations ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assesses information relevant to the understanding of climate change and explores options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC reports communicate uncertainty by using a set of probability terms accompanied by global interpretational guidelines. The judgment literature indicates that there are large differences in the way people understand such phrases, and that their use may lead to confusion and errors in communication. We conducted an experiment in which subjects read sentences from the 2007 IPCC report and assigned numerical values to the probability terms. The respondents' judgments deviated significantly from the IPCC guidelines, even when the respondents had access to these guidelines. These results suggest that the method used by the IPCC is likely to convey levels of imprecision that are too high. We propose an alternative form of communicating uncertainty, illustrate its effectiveness, and suggest several additional ways to improve the communication of uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid19205173, year = {2008}, author = {Cochrane, MA and Laurance, WF}, title = {Synergisms among fire, land use, and climate change in the Amazon.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {37}, number = {7-8}, pages = {522-527}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-37.7.522}, pmid = {19205173}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends ; *Ecosystem ; *Fires ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Trees ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The Amazon is being rapidly transformed by fire. Logging and forest fragmentation sharply elevate fire incidence by increasing forest desiccation and fuel loads, and forests that have experienced a low-intensity surface fire are vulnerable to far more catastrophic fires. Satellites typically detect thermal signatures from 40 000 to 50 000 separate fires in the Amazon each year, and this number could increase as new highways and infrastructure expand across the basin. Many are concerned that large-scale deforestation, by reducing regional evapotranspiration and creating moisture-trapping smoke plumes, will make the basin increasingly vulnerable to fire. The Amazon may also be affected by future global warming and atmospheric changes, although much remains uncertain. Most models suggest the basin will become warmer throughout this century, although there is no consensus about how precipitation will be affected. The most alarming scenarios project a permanent disruption of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, leading to greatly increased drought or destructive synergisms between regional and global climate change in the Amazon.}, }
@article {pmid19205127, year = {2008}, author = {Yasuda, Y}, title = {Climate change and the origin and development of rice cultivation in the Yangtze River basin, China.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {Spec No 14}, number = {}, pages = {502-506}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-37.sp14.502}, pmid = {19205127}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; China ; *Climate ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The forest hunter-gatherers of the middle Yangtze River basin, who were the first to invent pottery and led a sedentary lifestyle, may have begun to cultivate rice during the Bølling-Allerød interstadial global warming period. The earliest rice cultivation may have dated back to 14,000 calibrated (cal.) years before present (YBP). The global warming at 9000 cal. YBP in the early Holocene brought the development of the rice cultivation to the middle Yangtze River basin. On the other hand, ancient rice-cultivating and piscatorial society met a crisis at 4200-4000 cal. YBP that was characterized by a significant cooling of the climate. This climate deterioration led the northern wheat/barley-cultivating pastoral people to migrate to the south and invade, ultimately bringing about the collapse of the rice-cultivating and piscatorial society in the Yangtze River basin.}, }
@article {pmid19205126, year = {2008}, author = {Fowler, C}, title = {Crop diversity: Neolithic foundations for agriculture's future adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {Spec No 14}, number = {}, pages = {498-501}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-37.sp14.498}, pmid = {19205126}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/*classification ; Species Specificity ; }, }
@article {pmid19205125, year = {2008}, author = {Blinman, E}, title = {2000 years of cultural adaptation to climate change in the Southwestern United States.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {Spec No 14}, number = {}, pages = {489-497}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-37.sp14.489}, pmid = {19205125}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate ; *Cultural Characteristics ; Humans ; Southwestern United States ; }, abstract = {Modern concerns with climate change often overlook the extensive history of both climate change and human adaptation over the millennia. While questions of human-climate system causation are important, especially to the extent that our current behavior is driving environmental change, human societies have experienced multiple climate changes in the past, independent of causation. The histories of cultural adaptation to those changes can help us understand the dynamic interaction between climate and society, expanding the possibilities for "proactive adaptation" that may be available to us today. The underlying principles of cultural adaptation are generally independent of the source of the climate change, and the lessons of the past can suggest social and economic paths that can lead toward sustainability and away from collapse.}, }
@article {pmid19204792, year = {2009}, author = {Trape, S}, title = {Impact of climate change on the relict tropical fish fauna of central sahara: threat for the survival of adrar mountains fishes, mauritania.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {e4400}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0004400}, pmid = {19204792}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Africa, Northern ; Animals ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*physiology ; Fresh Water ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Mauritania ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Four central Sahara mountainous massifs provide habitats for relict populations of fish. In the Adrar of Mauritania all available data on the presence and distribution of fish come from pre-1960 surveys where five fish species were reported: Barbus pobeguini, Barbus macrops, Barbus mirei, Sarotherodon galilaeus, and Clarias anguillaris. Since 1970, drought has had a severe impact in the Adrar where rainfall decreased by 35%. To investigate whether the relict populations of fish have survived the continuing drought, a study was carried out from 2004 to 2008.<br><br>An inventory of perennial bodies of water was drawn up using a literature review and analysis of topographical and hydrological maps. Field surveys were carried out in order to locate the bodies of water described in the literature, identify the presence of fish, determine which species were present and estimate their abundance. The thirteen sites where the presence of fish was observed in the 1950s -Ksar Torchane, Ilij, Molomhar, Agueni, Tachot, Hamdoun, Terjit, Toungad, El Berbera, Timagazine, D&#xe2;yet el Mb&#xe2;rek, D&#xe2;yet et-Tefla, Nkede&#xef;- were located and surveyed. The Ksar Torchane spring -type locality and the only known locality of B. mirei- has dried up at the height of the drought in 1984, and any fish populations have since become extinct there. The Timagazine, D&#xe2;yet el Mb&#xe2;rek and D&#xe2;yet et-Tefla pools have become ephemeral. The Hamdoun guelta appears to be highly endangered. The fish populations at the other sites remain unchanged. Four perennial pools which are home to populations of B. pobeguini are newly recorded.<br><br>CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The tropical relict fish populations of the Adrar mountains of Mauritania appear to be highly endangered. Of thirteen previously recorded populations, four have become extinct since the beginning of the drought period. New fish population extinctions may occur should low levels of annual rainfall be repeated.}, }
@article {pmid19202013, year = {2009}, author = {Shrestha, RK and Lal, R and Penrose, C}, title = {Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential of reclaimed forest and grassland soils.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {38}, number = {2}, pages = {426-436}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2008.0283}, pmid = {19202013}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Environmental Restoration and Remediation ; Forestry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/*analysis ; Mining ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; Principal Component Analysis ; Soil/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Although greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils are important, reclaimed mine soil (RMS) ecosystems are not widely assessed. Postreclamation land uses (forest, hay, and pasture) were investigated to: (i) monitor the magnitude of GHG fluxes, (ii) estimate their global warming potential (GWP), (iii) identify the relationship between GHG fluxes and soil properties, and (iv) develop a soil quality index by principal component analysis (PCA). The GHG fluxes were measured for 1 yr cycle and simultaneous measurements were also made for soil moisture and temperature. The RMS-forest, -hay, and -pasture land uses had weighted average fluxes of 1.16, 1.66, and 3.06 g CO(2)-C m(-2) d(-1); 0.33, 0.48 and 1.1 mg CH(4)-C m(-2) d(-1); and 0.33, 0.70, and 1.06 mg N(2)O-N m(-2) d(-1), respectively. The CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O fluxes were consistently high in the RMS-pasture and low in the RMS-forest. The GWP (CO(2)-C equivalent) of the postreclamation land uses was in the order of RMS-forest (4.5 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) = RMS-hay (6.8 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) < RMS-pasture (12.3 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)). The PCA showed that four PCs with eigenvalues > 1 explained 88.8% of the total variance in the soil properties. The first PC is mostly characterized by soil physical properties and the second by chemical properties. Soil and air temperatures were positively correlated with CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O fluxes. The results suggest that GWP from RMS can be minimized by establishing forest land use.}, }
@article {pmid19194609, year = {2008}, author = {Cerda L, J and Valdivia C, G and Valenzuela B, MT and Venegas L, J}, title = {[Climate change and infectious diseases. A novel epidemiological scenario].}, journal = {Revista chilena de infectologia : organo oficial de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectologia}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {447-452}, pmid = {19194609}, issn = {0716-1018}, mesh = {Chile ; *Climate ; *Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; Global Health ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {For the international scientific community, it is undoubted that planetary temperature is increasing, being projected an average raise of 1.0 degrees C-3.5 degrees C by the year 2100. Forecasted consequences are diverse, most of them adverse for human health, including the establishment of favorable epidemiological scenarios for the emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases. The present article summarizes the available evidence regarding the mechanisms that promote climate change, its environmental effects and its consequences on human health. In order to accomplish this objective, demonstrated changes in the dynamics of zoonotic, vectorial, food and water-borne diseases are described. The position of Chile in the international community is commented, as well as multiple pending challenges, among which outstands the importance of incorporating professionals that work in the health sector to the national debate.}, }
@article {pmid19194490, year = {2009}, author = {Aronson, RB and Moody, RM and Ivany, LC and Blake, DB and Werner, JE and Glass, A}, title = {Climate change and trophic response of the Antarctic bottom fauna.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {e4385}, pmid = {19194490}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Biodiversity ; Echinodermata/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Fossils ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, Ancient ; Predatory Behavior ; Principal Component Analysis ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: As Earth warms, temperate and subpolar marine species will increasingly shift their geographic ranges poleward. The endemic shelf fauna of Antarctica is especially vulnerable to climate-mediated biological invasions because cold temperatures currently exclude the durophagous (shell-breaking) predators that structure shallow-benthic communities elsewhere.<br><br>We used the Eocene fossil record from Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula, to project specifically how global warming will reorganize the nearshore benthos of Antarctica. A long-term cooling trend, which began with a sharp temperature drop approximately 41 Ma (million years ago), eliminated durophagous predators-teleosts (modern bony fish), decapod crustaceans (crabs and lobsters) and almost all neoselachian elasmobranchs (modern sharks and rays)-from Antarctic nearshore waters after the Eocene. Even prior to those extinctions, durophagous predators became less active as coastal sea temperatures declined from 41 Ma to the end of the Eocene, approximately 33.5 Ma. In response, dense populations of suspension-feeding ophiuroids and crinoids abruptly appeared. Dense aggregations of brachiopods transcended the cooling event with no apparent change in predation pressure, nor were there changes in the frequency of shell-drilling predation on venerid bivalves.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Rapid warming in the Southern Ocean is now removing the physiological barriers to shell-breaking predators, and crabs are returning to the Antarctic Peninsula. Over the coming decades to centuries, we predict a rapid reversal of the Eocene trends. Increasing predation will reduce or eliminate extant dense populations of suspension-feeding echinoderms from nearshore habitats along the Peninsula while brachiopods will continue to form large populations, and the intensity of shell-drilling predation on infaunal bivalves will not change appreciably. In time the ecological effects of global warming could spread to other portions of the Antarctic coast. The differential responses of faunal components will reduce the endemic character of Antarctic subtidal communities, homogenizing them with nearshore communities at lower latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid19194439, year = {2009}, author = {Huber, M}, title = {Climate change: Snakes tell a torrid tale.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {457}, number = {7230}, pages = {669-671}, pmid = {19194439}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Body Size ; Body Temperature Regulation ; Boidae/*anatomy &amp; histology/metabolism ; Colombia ; *Fossils ; Greenhouse Effect ; History, Ancient ; *Temperature ; *Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid19191974, year = {2009}, author = {Gale, P and Drew, T and Phipps, LP and David, G and Wooldridge, M}, title = {The effect of climate change on the occurrence and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain: a review.}, journal = {Journal of applied microbiology}, volume = {106}, number = {5}, pages = {1409-1423}, pmid = {19191974}, issn = {1365-2672}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology ; Animals ; *Animals, Domestic ; *Climate Change ; Humans ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has, and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain (GB). This paper reviews how climate change could affect livestock diseases in GB. Factors influenced by climate change and that could affect livestock diseases include the molecular biology of the pathogen itself; vectors (if any); farming practice and land use; zoological and environmental factors; and the establishment of new microenvironments and microclimates. The interaction of these factors is an important consideration in forecasting how livestock diseases may be affected. Risk assessments should focus on looking for combinations of factors that may be directly affected by climate change, or that may be indirectly affected through changes in human activity, such as land use (e.g. deforestation), transport and movement of animals, intensity of livestock farming and habitat change. A risk assessment framework is proposed, based on modules that accommodate these factors. This framework could be used to screen for the emergence of unexpected disease events.}, }
@article {pmid19190352, year = {2008}, author = {Husain, T and Chaudhary, JR}, title = {Human health risk assessment due to global warming--a case study of the Gulf countries.}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {204-212}, pmid = {19190352}, issn = {1660-4601}, mesh = {Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Disasters ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Indian Ocean ; Middle East ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Accelerated global warming is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The climate changes are anticipated to have a long-term impact on human health, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources and vegetation. Due to rising sea levels, low lying coastal regions will be flooded, farmlands will be threatened and scarcity of fresh water resources will be aggravated. This will in turn cause increased human suffering in different parts of the world. Spread of disease vectors will contribute towards high mortality, along with the heat related deaths. Arid and hot climatic regions will face devastating effects risking survival of the fragile plant species, wild animals, and other desert ecosystems. The paper presents future changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity and their direct and indirect potential impacts on human health in the coastal regions of the Gulf countries including Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. The analysis is based on the long-term changes in the values of temperature, precipitation and humidity as predicted by the global climatic simulation models under different scenarios of GHG emission levels. Monthly data on temperature, precipitation, and humidity were retrieved from IPCC databases for longitude 41.25 degrees E to 61.875 degrees E and latitude 9.278 degrees N to 27.833 degrees N. Using an average of 1970 to 2000 values as baseline, the changes in the humidity, temperature and precipitation were predicted for the period 2020 to 2050 and 2070 to 2099. Based on epidemiological studies on various diseases associated with the change in temperature, humidity and precipitation in arid and hot regions, empirical models were developed to assess human health risk in the Gulf region to predict elevated levels of diseases and mortality rates under different emission scenarios as developed by the IPCC.The preliminary assessment indicates increased mortality rates due to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, thermal stress, and increased frequency of infectious vector borne diseases in the region between 2070 and 2099.}, }
@article {pmid19190185, year = {2009}, author = {Marlon, JR and Bartlein, PJ and Walsh, MK and Harrison, SP and Brown, KJ and Edwards, ME and Higuera, PE and Power, MJ and Anderson, RS and Briles, C and Brunelle, A and Carcaillet, C and Daniels, M and Hu, FS and Lavoie, M and Long, C and Minckley, T and Richard, PJ and Scott, AC and Shafer, DS and Tinner, W and Umbanhowar, CE and Whitlock, C}, title = {Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {8}, pages = {2519-2524}, pmid = {19190185}, issn = {1091-6490}, abstract = {It is widely accepted, based on data from the last few decades and on model simulations, that anthropogenic climate change will cause increased fire activity. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between abrupt climate changes and heightened fire activity in the paleorecord. We use 35 charcoal and pollen records to assess how fire regimes in North America changed during the last glacial-interglacial transition (15 to 10 ka), a time of large and rapid climate changes. We also test the hypothesis that a comet impact initiated continental-scale wildfires at 12.9 ka; the data do not support this idea, nor are continent-wide fires indicated at any time during deglaciation. There are, however, clear links between large climate changes and fire activity. Biomass burning gradually increased from the glacial period to the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although there are changes in biomass burning during the Younger Dryas, there is no systematic trend. There is a further increase in biomass burning after the Younger Dryas. Intervals of rapid climate change at 13.9, 13.2, and 11.7 ka are marked by large increases in fire activity. The timing of changes in fire is not coincident with changes in human population density or the timing of the extinction of the megafauna. Although these factors could have contributed to fire-regime changes at individual sites or at specific times, the charcoal data indicate an important role for climate, and particularly rapid climate change, in determining broad-scale levels of fire activity.}, }
@article {pmid19188587, year = {2009}, author = {Hill, J and Polasky, S and Nelson, E and Tilman, D and Huo, H and Ludwig, L and Neumann, J and Zheng, H and Bonta, D}, title = {Climate change and health costs of air emissions from biofuels and gasoline.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {6}, pages = {2077-2082}, pmid = {19188587}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/adverse effects/economics ; Energy-Generating Resources/*economics ; Ethanol ; Gasoline/adverse effects/*economics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Care Costs ; Humans ; Vehicle Emissions ; }, abstract = {Environmental impacts of energy use can impose large costs on society. We quantify and monetize the life-cycle climate-change and health effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) emissions from gasoline, corn ethanol, and cellulosic ethanol. For each billion ethanol-equivalent gallons of fuel produced and combusted in the US, the combined climate-change and health costs are $469 million for gasoline, $472-952 million for corn ethanol depending on biorefinery heat source (natural gas, corn stover, or coal) and technology, but only $123-208 million for cellulosic ethanol depending on feedstock (prairie biomass, Miscanthus, corn stover, or switchgrass). Moreover, a geographically explicit life-cycle analysis that tracks PM(2.5) emissions and exposure relative to U.S. population shows regional shifts in health costs dependent on fuel production systems. Because cellulosic ethanol can offer health benefits from PM(2.5) reduction that are of comparable importance to its climate-change benefits from GHG reduction, a shift from gasoline to cellulosic ethanol has greater advantages than previously recognized. These advantages are critically dependent on the source of land used to produce biomass for biofuels, on the magnitude of any indirect land use that may result, and on other as yet unmeasured environmental impacts of biofuels.}, }
@article {pmid19184576, year = {2009}, author = {Mertz, O and Halsnaes, K and Olesen, JE and Rasmussen, K}, title = {Adaptation to climate change in developing countries.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {43}, number = {5}, pages = {743-752}, pmid = {19184576}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Developing Countries ; Economics/*trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Risk Management/*economics ; }, abstract = {Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing countries. It is concluded that although many useful steps have been taken in the direction of ensuring adequate adaptation in developing countries, much work still remains to fully understand the drivers of past adaptation efforts, the need for future adaptation, and how to mainstream climate into general development policies.}, }
@article {pmid19182330, year = {2009}, author = {McFarlane, DJ and Smith, A and Bekele, E and Simpson, J and Tapsuwan, S}, title = {Using treated wastewater to save wetlands impacted by climate change and pumping.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {59}, number = {2}, pages = {213-221}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2009.847}, pmid = {19182330}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/*methods ; *Water Movements ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Wetlands occur where the watertable which underlies much of Perth intersects the land surface. Regional groundwater levels have been falling since the 1970s as a result of lower rainfall and increased extraction causing a loss of environmental and social values. This paper examines a scheme to add almost 2 GL/yr of treated wastewater to infiltration galleries immediately down-gradient of Perry Lakes so that the wetlands may be restored. Modelling suggest that groundwater levels would be raised up-gradient of the galleries, increasing both lake levels and groundwater supplies in the vicinity. It is not envisaged that wastewater will enter the lakes. Adding treated wastewater to nearby trial galleries has shown that phosphorus, pathogens and organic carbon are greatly reduced within 5 to 50 m. Nitrogen levels are less reduced but are similar to those in the lakes and nearby aquifer. It is estimated that the wetlands add about $54 m to land prices near the lakes and would add more than $24M to the sale price of proposed nearby land if they contain water. If successful, the proposal could be a test case for the use of treated wastewater to create hydraulic barriers against salt water intrusion into coastal areas.}, }
@article {pmid19179673, year = {2008}, author = {de Souza, AL}, title = {Global warming &amp; heatstroke.}, journal = {The Indian journal of medical research}, volume = {128}, number = {5}, pages = {574-576}, pmid = {19179673}, issn = {0971-5916}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Heat Stroke/*etiology/therapy ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid19179281, year = {2009}, author = {Solomon, S and Plattner, GK and Knutti, R and Friedlingstein, P}, title = {Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {6}, pages = {1704-1709}, pmid = {19179281}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Environment ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450-600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the "dust bowl" era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4-1.0 m if 21st century CO(2) concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6-1.9 m for peak CO(2) concentrations exceeding approximately 1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.}, }
@article {pmid19174458, year = {2009}, author = {Crabbe, MJ}, title = {Climate change and tropical marine agriculture.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {60}, number = {10}, pages = {2839-2844}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erp004}, pmid = {19174458}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/physiology ; *Aquaculture ; Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Eukaryota/physiology ; *Marine Biology ; }, abstract = {The coral reef ecosystem forms part of a 'seascape' that includes land-based ecosystems such as mangroves and forests, and ideally should form a complete system for conservation and management. Aquaculture, including artisanal fishing for fish and invertebrates, shrimp farming, and seaweed farming, is a major part of the farming and gleaning practices of many tropical communities, particularly on small islands, and depends upon the integrity of the reefs. Climate change is making major impacts on these communities, not least through global warming and high CO(2) concentrations. Corals grow within very narrow limits of temperature, provide livelihoods for millions of people in tropical areas, and are under serious threat from a variety of environmental and climate extremes. Corals survive and grow through a symbiotic relationship with photosynthetic algae: zooxanthellae. Such systems apply highly co-operative regulation to minimize the fluctuation of metabolite concentration profiles in the face of transient perturbations. This review will discuss research on how climate influences reef ecosystems, and how science can lead to conservation actions, with benefits for the human populations reliant on the reefs for their survival.}, }
@article {pmid19161946, year = {2009}, author = {Lewis, S and Andrews, GJ}, title = {Climate change and health: Priorities for the CAM community.}, journal = {Complementary therapies in clinical practice}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {1-4}, doi = {10.1016/j.ctcp.2008.10.004}, pmid = {19161946}, issn = {1873-6947}, mesh = {Behavior Therapy ; Complementary Therapies/*organization &amp; administration ; Emigration and Immigration ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Policy ; Social Change ; }, abstract = {This article builds on recent discussions published in academic journals on climate change and health. It introduces four categories within which the CAM community might establish priorities - tactics, specialties, places, research. Within each category, the most pressing issues are highlighted and the ways in which individuals and the sector might respond.}, }
@article {pmid19158781, year = {2009}, author = {Thomson, DJ}, title = {Climate change: Shifts in season.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {457}, number = {7228}, pages = {391-392}, pmid = {19158781}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Seasons ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid19149292, year = {2008}, author = {Coemgenus, }, title = {Global warming, parks, planners and nuclear power.}, journal = {Clinical medicine (London, England)}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {638-639}, doi = {10.7861/clinmedicine.8-6-638}, pmid = {19149292}, issn = {1470-2118}, mesh = {*City Planning ; England ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Nuclear Power Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid19147356, year = {2009}, author = {Ridgwell, A and Singarayer, JS and Hetherington, AM and Valdes, PJ}, title = {Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo bio-geoengineering.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {146-150}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2008.12.025}, pmid = {19147356}, issn = {1879-0445}, support = {BB/F001177/1/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Plant Leaves/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Seasons ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The likelihood that continuing greenhouse-gas emissions will lead to an unmanageable degree of climate change has stimulated the search for planetary-scale technological solutions for reducing global warming ("geoengineering"), typically characterized by the necessity for costly new infrastructures and industries. We suggest that the existing global infrastructure associated with arable agriculture can help, given that crop plants exert an important influence over the climatic energy budget because of differences in their albedo (solar reflectivity) compared to soils and to natural vegetation. Specifically, we propose a "bio-geoengineering" approach to mitigate surface warming, in which crop varieties having specific leaf glossiness and/or canopy morphological traits are specifically chosen to maximize solar reflectivity. We quantify this by modifying the canopy albedo of vegetation in prescribed cropland areas in a global-climate model, and thereby estimate the near-term potential for bio-geoengineering to be a summertime cooling of more than 1 degrees C throughout much of central North America and midlatitude Eurasia, equivalent to seasonally offsetting approximately one-fifth of regional warming due to doubling of atmospheric CO(2). Ultimately, genetic modification of plant leaf waxes or canopy structure could achieve greater temperature reductions, although better characterization of existing intraspecies variability is needed first.}, }
@article {pmid19137952, year = {2008}, author = {Schweiger, O and Settele, J and Kudrna, O and Klotz, S and Kühn, I}, title = {Climate change can cause spatial mismatch of trophically interacting species.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {89}, number = {12}, pages = {3472-3479}, doi = {10.1890/07-1748.1}, pmid = {19137952}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Butterflies/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Larva/growth &amp; development ; Male ; Polygonum/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most influential drivers of biodiversity. Species-specific differences in the reaction to climate change can become particularly important when interacting species are considered. Current studies have evidenced temporal mismatching of interacting species at single points in space, and recently two investigations showed that species interactions are relevant for their future ranges. However, so far we are not aware that the ranges of interacting species may become substantially spatially mismatched. We developed separate ecological-niche models for a monophagous butterfly (Boloria titania) and its larval host plant (Polygonum bistorta) based on monthly interpolated climate data, land-cover classes, and soil data at a 10'-grid resolution. We show that all of three chosen global-change scenarios, which cover a broad range of potential developments in demography, socio-economics, and technology during the 21st century from moderate to intermediate to maximum change, will result in a pronounced spatial mismatch between future niche spaces of these species. The butterfly may expand considerably its future range (by 124-258%) if the host plant has unlimited dispersal, but it could lose 52-75% of its current range if the host plant is not able to fill its projected ecological niche space, and 79-88% if the butterfly also is assumed to be highly dispersal limited. These findings strongly suggest that climate change has the potential to disrupt trophic interactions because co-occurring species do not necessarily react in a similar manner to global change, having important consequences at ecological and evolutionary time scales.}, }
@article {pmid19136871, year = {2009}, author = {Balbus, JM and Malina, C}, title = {Identifying vulnerable subpopulations for climate change health effects in the United States.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {33-37}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0b013e318193e12e}, pmid = {19136871}, issn = {1536-5948}, mesh = {Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate ; Cyclonic Storms ; *Disaster Planning ; *Environmental Health ; Female ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Pregnancy ; Transients and Migrants ; United States ; *Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change can be expected to have differential effects on different subpopulations. Biological sensitivity, socioeconomic factors, and geography may each contribute to heightened risk for climate-sensitive health outcomes, which include heat stress, air pollution health effects, extreme weather event health effects, water-, food-, and vector-borne illnesses. Particularly vulnerable subpopulations include children, pregnant women, older adults, impoverished populations, people with chronic conditions and mobility and cognitive constraints, outdoor workers, and those in coastal and low-lying riverine zones. For public health planning, it is critical to identify populations that may experience synergistic effects of multiple risk factors for health problems, both related to climate change and to other temporal trends, with specific geographic factors that convey climate-related risks.}, }
@article {pmid19136870, year = {2009}, author = {Mills, DM}, title = {Climate change, extreme weather events, and us health impacts: what can we say?.}, journal = {Journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {26-32}, doi = {10.1097/JOM.0b013e31817d32da}, pmid = {19136870}, issn = {1536-5948}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Climatic Processes ; Disasters ; Environmental Health ; Fires ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Mortality ; United States ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Address how climate change impacts on a group of extreme weather events could affect US public health.<br><br>METHODS: A literature review summarizes arguments for, and evidence of, a climate change signal in select extreme weather event categories, projections for future events, and potential trends in adaptive capacity and vulnerability in the United States.<br><br>RESULTS: Western US wildfires already exhibit a climate change signal. The variability within hurricane and extreme precipitation/flood data complicates identifying a similar climate change signal.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Health impacts of extreme events are not equally distributed and are very sensitive to a subset of exceptional extreme events. Cumulative uncertainty in forecasting climate change driven characteristics of extreme events and adaptation prevents confidently projecting the future health impacts from hurricanes, wildfires, and extreme precipitation/floods in the United States attributable to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19135909, year = {2009}, author = {Akhtar, AZ and Greger, M and Ferdowsian, H and Frank, E}, title = {Health professionals' roles in animal agriculture, climate change, and human health.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {182-187}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.09.043}, pmid = {19135909}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {*Animal Husbandry ; Chronic Disease ; Communicable Diseases ; Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Professional Role ; }, abstract = {What we eat is rapidly becoming an issue of global concern. With food shortages, the rise in chronic disease, and global warming, the impact of our dietary choices seems more relevant today than ever. Globally, a transition is taking place toward greater consumption of foods of animal origin, in lieu of plant-based diets. With this transition comes intensification of animal agriculture that in turn is associated with the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases, environmental degradation, and the epidemics of chronic disease and obesity. Health professionals should be aware of these trends and consider them as they promote healthier and more environmentally-sustainable diets.}, }
@article {pmid19135692, year = {2009}, author = {Cosford, P}, title = {'Partners in clime': sustainable development and climate change--what can the National Health Service do?.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {123}, number = {1}, pages = {e1-5}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2008.10.030}, pmid = {19135692}, issn = {1476-5616}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hospitals, Public/organization &amp; administration ; *State Medicine ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Climate change is arguably the biggest threat to health in the medium and long term. Necessary responses to this threat include adaptation, i.e. preparing to respond to the consequences of climate change, of which there are many in respect of health; and mitigation, i.e. reducing the activities that lead to climate change and, in particular, reducing the levels of greenhouse gas emissions, the most significant of which is carbon.}, }
@article {pmid19131598, year = {2009}, author = {Holden, C}, title = {Climate change. Higher temperatures seen reducing global harvests.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {323}, number = {5911}, pages = {193}, doi = {10.1126/science.323.5911.193}, pmid = {19131598}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Agriculture/*trends ; *Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Extreme Heat ; Food Supply ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Hot Temperature ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid19130942, year = {2009}, author = {Beggs, PJ}, title = {Climate change and plant food allergens.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {123}, number = {1}, pages = {271-2; author reply 272}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2008.10.025}, pmid = {19130942}, issn = {1097-6825}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Allergens ; Asthma/epidemiology/*etiology ; Climate ; Disaster Planning ; Environmental Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/*etiology ; Incidence ; Pollen ; Prevalence ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid19130278, year = {2010}, author = {Washington-Allen, RA and West, NE and Ramsey, RD and Phillips, DH and Shugart, HH}, title = {Retrospective assessment of dryland soil stability in relation to grazing and climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {160}, number = {1-4}, pages = {101-121}, pmid = {19130278}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Feeding Behavior ; Soil/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Accelerated soil erosion is an aspect of dryland degradation that is affected by repeated intense drought events and land management activities such as commercial livestock grazing. A soil stability index (SSI) that detects the erosion status and susceptibility of a landscape at the pixel level, i.e., stable, erosional, or depositional pixels, was derived from the spectral properties of an archived time series (from 1972 to 1997) of Landsat satellite data of a commercial ranch in northeastern Utah. The SSI was retrospectively validated with contemporary field measures of soil organic matter and erosion status that was surveyed by US federal land management agencies. Catastrophe theory provided the conceptual framework for retrospective assessment of the impact of commercial grazing and soil water availability on the SSI. The overall SSI trend was from an eroding landscape in the early drier 1970s towards stable conditions in the wetter mid-1980s and late 1990s. The landscape catastrophically shifted towards an extreme eroding state that was coincident with the "The Great North American Drought of 1988". Periods of landscape stability and trajectories toward stability were coincident with extremely wet El Niño events. Commercial grazing had less correlation with soil stability than drought conditions. However, the landscape became more susceptible to erosion events under multiple droughts and grazing. Land managers now have nearly a year warning of El Niño and La Niña events and can adjust their management decisions according to predicted landscape erosion conditions.}, }
@article {pmid19127377, year = {2009}, author = {Garg, A and Dhiman, RC and Bhattacharya, S and Shukla, PR}, title = {Development, malaria and adaptation to climate change: a case study from India.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {43}, number = {5}, pages = {779-789}, pmid = {19127377}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {*Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Economics ; *Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Humidity ; India ; Malaria/*prevention &amp; control ; *Public Policy ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19125540, year = {2008}, author = {Sarkar, A}, title = {Climate change and health: methodological issues and introduction to climate epidemiology.}, journal = {Indian journal of public health}, volume = {52}, number = {2}, pages = {100-106}, pmid = {19125540}, issn = {0019-557X}, mesh = {Environmental Health/*methods ; Epidemiologic Methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to the health of current and future generations. This paper assesses the current estimations of adverse health outcomes of climate change and explores methodological issues. The study is essentially based on literature review. The estimation of disease burden does not portray an accurate picture of the problem due to methodological constraints on account of de-linking several non-climatic factors. In particular, the developing nations face greater challenges due to poor infrastructure, and lack of institutions and health services. The concept of climate epidemiology can minimize the existing research gap by adapting trans-disciplinary approach and it can establish as a new frontier for health advocacy in the larger context of global environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid19124300, year = {2008}, author = {Zhang, Y and Bi, P and Hiller, JE}, title = {Climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases: a review.}, journal = {Asia-Pacific journal of public health}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {64-76}, doi = {10.1177/1010539507308385}, pmid = {19124300}, issn = {1941-2479}, mesh = {Alphavirus Infections/transmission ; Animals ; Dengue/transmission ; *Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Disease Vectors ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome/transmission ; Malaria/transmission ; Rodent Diseases/*transmission ; Rodentia ; Ross River virus ; }, abstract = {This article reviews studies examining the relationship between climate variability and the transmission of vector- and rodent-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, Ross River virus infection, and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. The review has evaluated their study designs, statistical analysis methods, usage of meteorological variables, and results of those studies. The authors found that the limitations of analytical methods exist in most of the articles. Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease (eg, socioeconomic status). In addition, the quantitative relationship between climate and vector-borne diseases is inconsistent. Further research should be conducted among different populations with various climatic/ecological regions by using appropriate statistical models.}, }
@article {pmid19123351, year = {2008}, author = {Yuan, F and Han, XG and Ge, JP and Wu, JG}, title = {[Net primary productivity of Leymus chinensis steppe in Xilin River basin of Inner Mongolia and its responses to global climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {2168-2176}, pmid = {19123351}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Biomass ; China ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Rivers ; }, abstract = {CENTURY model was utilized to simulate the annual aboveground net primary production (ANPP) of Leymus chinensis steppe, a dominant community type in Xilin River basin of Inner Mongolia steppe region. The results showed that the model performed reasonably well in predicting the dynamics of the ANPP. The scenario-based simulations indicated that though the variations of air temperature and precipitation due to global climate change as well as the elevated CO2 would significantly affect the dynamics of the ANPP, precipitation was the key affecting factor. Several GCM models had predicted that the precipitation in this region would decrease in the future, and consequently, it was likely that the ANPP would also decrease. Nevertheless, the simulation results showed that while the ANPP decreased in most climate change scenarios, it might also increase in the following climate change scenarios: 1) if the atmospheric CO2 concentration was doubled, air temperature was increased by 2 degrees C, and precipitation was kept unchanged or increased by 10%-20%, and 2) if the atmospheric CO2 concentration was kept unchanged, air temperature was increased by 2 degrees C, and precipitation was increased by 20%. Overall, it was evident that climate change would have significant effects on the steppe in Xilin River basin of Inner Mongolia.}, }
@article {pmid19120595, year = {2009}, author = {Brook, BW}, title = {Global warming tugs at trophic interactions.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {78}, number = {1}, pages = {1-3}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01490.x}, pmid = {19120595}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; *Food Chain ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {Climate change impacts are becoming increasingly evident as 1 degree C warming above pre-industrial temperatures is approached. One of the signature biological effects is a shift towards earlier-timed reproduction. If individual species lack sufficient adaptive plasticity to alter phenology, they will have reduced fitness in a hotter world. Yet, a long-term study of an oak-caterpillar-songbird-sparrowhawk food web reveals that what could matter as much is if trophic interactions are disrupted. Multiple selective pressures may be triggered by climate change, leading to a tug-of-war between the need to stay in synchrony with the timing of maximum food, and the benefits of minimizing predation.}, }
@article {pmid19119999, year = {2009}, author = {Green, D and King, U and Morrison, J}, title = {Disproportionate burdens: the multidimensional impacts of climate change on the health of Indigenous Australians.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {190}, number = {1}, pages = {4-5}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.2009.tb02250.x}, pmid = {19119999}, issn = {0025-729X}, mesh = {Australia ; *Cultural Competency ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; *Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ; }, }
@article {pmid19108608, year = {2008}, author = {Williams, SE and Shoo, LP and Isaac, JL and Hoffmann, AA and Langham, G}, title = {Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {2621-2626}, pmid = {19108608}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; *Risk Assessment ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. A novel integrated framework to assess vulnerability and prioritize research and management action aims to improve our ability to respond to this emerging crisis.}, }
@article {pmid19103909, year = {2009}, author = {Pencheon, D}, title = {Health services and climate change: what can be done?.}, journal = {Journal of health services research &amp; policy}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {2-4}, doi = {10.1258/jhsrp.2008.008147}, pmid = {19103909}, issn = {1355-8196}, mesh = {*Conservation of Energy Resources ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Services Administration ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid19102297, year = {2008}, author = {Mi, N and Yu, GR and Wen, XF and Sun, XM and Wang, SS}, title = {[Responses of subtropical conifer plantation to future climate change: a simulation study].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {9}, pages = {1877-1883}, pmid = {19102297}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Computer Simulation ; Ecology/methods/trends ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Tracheophyta/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The responses of subtropical conifer plantation to climate change scenarios were investigated in Qianyanzhou by the process-based physiological-ecological model EALCO (ecological assimilation of land and climate observation). The results showed that CO2 concentration had the greatest effects on the carbon and water fluxes of the plantation, followed by temperature, and precipitation. CO2 concentration was the main driving factor for the gross photosynthesis productivity of this plantation ecosystem, and temperature and CO2 concentration were the key environmental factors controlling the ecosystem respiration. Increasing temperature accelerated the respiration of aboveground part dramatically, while increasing CO2 concentration had greater effects on soil respiration. The evapotranspiration was enhanced by increasing temperature, but reduced by increasing CO2 concentration. Under the future climate changing scenario (the year 2100), the net primary productivity of this plantation ecosystem would be increased by 22%, suggesting that this ecosystem is still capable of sequestrating carbon.}, }
@article {pmid19101018, year = {2009}, author = {Bonazza, A and Messina, P and Sabbioni, C and Grossi, CM and Brimblecombe, P}, title = {Mapping the impact of climate change on surface recession of carbonate buildings in Europe.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {407}, number = {6}, pages = {2039-2050}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.10.067}, pmid = {19101018}, issn = {0048-9697}, abstract = {Climate change is currently attracting interest at both research and policy levels. However, it is usually explored in terms of its effect on agriculture, water, industry, energy, transport and health and as yet has been insufficiently addressed as a factor threatening cultural heritage. Among the climate parameters critical to heritage conservation and expected to change in the future, precipitation plays an important role in surface recession of stone. The Lipfert function has been taken under consideration to quantify the annual surface recession of carbonate stone, due to the effects of clean rain, acid rain and dry deposition of pollutants. The present paper provides Europe-wide maps showing quantitative predictions of surface recession on carbonate stones for the 21st century, combining a modified Lipfert function with output from the Hadley global climate model. Chemical dissolution of carbonate stones, via the karst effect, will increase with future CO(2) concentrations, and will come to dominate over sulfur deposition and acid rain effects on monuments and buildings in both urban and rural areas. During the present century the rainfall contribution to surface recession is likely to have a small effect, while the increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration is shown to be the main factor in increasing weathering via the karst effect.}, }
@article {pmid19092184, year = {2008}, author = {Wilcock, R and Elliott, S and Hudson, N and Parkyn, S and Quinn, J}, title = {Climate change mitigation for agriculture: water quality benefits and costs.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {58}, number = {11}, pages = {2093-2099}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2008.906}, pmid = {19092184}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fertilizers ; Greenhouse Effect ; Waste Management ; Water Supply/*economics/*standards ; }, abstract = {New Zealand is unique in that half of its national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory derives from agriculture--predominantly as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), in a 2:1 ratio. The remaining GHG emissions predominantly comprise carbon dioxide (CO2) deriving from energy and industry sources. Proposed strategies to mitigate emissions of CH4 and N2O from pastoral agriculture in New Zealand are: (1) utilising extensive and riparian afforestation of pasture to achieve CO2 uptake (carbon sequestration); (2) management of nitrogen through budgeting and/or the use of nitrification inhibitors, and minimizing soil anoxia to reduce N2O emissions; and (3) utilisation of alternative waste treatment technologies to minimise emissions of CH4. These mitigation measures have associated co-benefits and co-costs (disadvantages) for rivers, streams and lakes because they affect land use, runoff loads, and receiving water and habitat quality. Extensive afforestation results in lower specific yields (exports) of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), suspended sediment (SS) and faecal matter and also has benefits for stream habitat quality by improving stream temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH regimes through greater shading, and the supply of woody debris and terrestrial food resources. Riparian afforestation does not achieve the same reductions in exports as extensive afforestation but can achieve reductions in concentrations of N, P, SS and faecal organisms. Extensive afforestation of pasture leads to reduced water yields and stream flows. Both afforestation measures produce intermittent disturbances to waterways during forestry operations (logging and thinning), resulting in sediment release from channel re-stabilisation and localised flooding, including formation of debris dams at culverts. Soil and fertiliser management benefits aquatic ecosystems by reducing N exports but the use of nitrification inhibitors, viz. dicyandiamide (DCD), to achieve this may under some circumstances impair wetland function to intercept and remove nitrate from drainage water, or even add to the overall N loading to waterways. DCD is water soluble and degrades rapidly in warm soil conditions. The recommended application rate of 10 kg DCD/ha corresponds to 6 kg N/ha and may be exceeded in warm climates. Of the N2O produced by agricultural systems, approximately 30% is emitted from indirect sources, which are waterways draining agriculture. It is important therefore to focus strategies for managing N inputs to agricultural systems generally to reduce inputs to wetlands and streams where these might be reduced to N2O. Waste management options include utilizing the CH4 resource produced in farm waste treatment ponds as a source of energy, with conversion to CO2 via combustion achieving a 21-fold reduction in GHG emissions. Both of these have co-benefits for waterways as a result of reduced loadings. A conceptual model derived showing the linkages between key land management practices for greenhouse gas mitigation and key waterway values and ecosystem attributes is derived to aid resource managers making decisions affecting waterways and atmospheric GHG emissions.}, }
@article {pmid19091055, year = {2008}, author = {Egan, AN and Crandall, KA}, title = {Divergence and diversification in North American Psoraleeae (Fabaceae) due to climate change.}, journal = {BMC biology}, volume = {6}, number = {}, pages = {55}, pmid = {19091055}, issn = {1741-7007}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; DNA, Plant/genetics ; Evolution, Molecular ; Fabaceae/classification/*genetics/*growth &amp; development ; Genetic Variation ; North America ; Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Past studies in the legume family (Fabaceae) have uncovered several evolutionary trends including differential mutation and diversification rates across varying taxonomic levels. The legume tribe Psoraleeae is shown herein to exemplify these trends at the generic and species levels. This group includes a sizable diversification within North America dated at approximately 6.3 million years ago with skewed species distribution to the most recently derived genus, Pediomelum, suggesting a diversification rate shift. We estimate divergence dates of North American (NAm) Psoraleeae using Bayesian MCMC sampling in BEAST based on eight DNA regions (ITS, waxy, matK, trnD-trnT, trnL-trnF, trnK, trnS-trnG, and rpoB-trnC). We also test the hypothesis of a diversification rate shift within NAm Psoraleeae using topological and temporal methods. We investigate the impact of climate change on diversification in this group by (1) testing the hypothesis that a shift from mesic to xeric habitats acted as a key innovation and (2) investigating diversification rate shifts along geologic time, discussing the impact of Quaternary climate oscillations on diversification.<br><br>RESULTS: NAm Psoraleeae represents a recent, rapid radiation with several genera originating during the Pleistocene, 1 to 2 million years ago. A shift in diversification rate is supported by both methods with a 2.67-fold increase suggested around 2 million years ago followed by a 8.73-fold decrease 440,000 years ago. The hypothesis that a climate regime shift from mesic to xeric habitats drove increased diversification in affected taxa was not supported. Timing of the diversification rate increase supports the hypothesis that glaciation-induced climate changes during the Quaternary influenced diversification of the group. Nonrandom spatial diversification also exists, with greater species richness in the American Southwest.<br><br>CONCLUSION: This study outlines NAm Psoraleeae as a model example of a recent, rapid radiation. Diversification rate shifts in NAm Psoraleeae are not due to current climate regimes as represented by habitat, but instead to past global climate change resulting from Quaternary glaciations. NAm Psoraleeae diversification is a good example of how earthly dynamics including global climate change and topography work together to shape biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid19087930, year = {2009}, author = {Frame, DJ and Aina, T and Christensen, CM and Faull, NE and Knight, SH and Piani, C and Rosier, SM and Yamazaki, K and Yamazaki, Y and Allen, MR}, title = {The climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {367}, number = {1890}, pages = {855-870}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2008.0240}, pmid = {19087930}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Algorithms ; *Climate ; *Climatic Processes ; Computer Simulation ; Ecology/*methods/*trends ; Internet ; *Models, Theoretical ; Research/*trends ; Science/methods/trends ; *Software ; Software Design ; }, abstract = {Perturbed physics experiments are among the most comprehensive ways to address uncertainty in climate change forecasts. In these experiments, parameters and parametrizations in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are perturbed across ranges of uncertainty, and results are compared with observations. In this paper, we describe the largest perturbed physics climate experiment conducted to date, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) climate change experiment, in which the physics of the atmosphere and ocean are changed, and run in conjunction with a forcing ensemble designed to represent uncertainty in past and future forcings, under the A1B Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid19083015, year = {2009}, author = {Pearce-Higgins, JW and Yalden, DW and Dougall, TW and Beale, CM}, title = {Does climate change explain the decline of a trans-Saharan Afro-Palaearctic migrant?.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {159}, number = {3}, pages = {649-659}, pmid = {19083015}, issn = {1432-1939}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate ; Models, Theoretical ; Passeriformes/*physiology ; }, abstract = {There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years' data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated for other declining migrants.}, }
@article {pmid19076874, year = {2008}, author = {Rosales, J}, title = {Economic growth, climate change, biodiversity loss: distributive justice for the global north and south.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {1409-1417}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01091.x}, pmid = {19076874}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; *Biodiversity ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; Economics/*trends ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Social Justice/*ethics ; }, abstract = {Economic growth-the increase in production and consumption of goods and services-must be considered within its biophysical context. Economic growth is fueled by biophysical inputs and its outputs degrade ecological processes, such as the global climate system. Economic growth is currently the principal cause of increased climate change, and climate change is a primary mechanism of biodiversity loss. Therefore, economic growth is a prime catalyst of biodiversity loss. Because people desire economic growth for dissimilar reasons-some for the increased accumulation of wealth, others for basic needs-how we limit economic growth becomes an ethical problem. Principles of distributive justice can help construct an international climate-change regime based on principles of equity. An equity-based framework that caps economic growth in the most polluting economies will lessen human impact on biodiversity. When coupled with a cap-and-trade mechanism, the framework can also provide a powerful tool for redistribution of wealth. Such an equity-based framework promises to be more inclusive and therefore more effective because it accounts for the disparate developmental conditions of the global north and south.}, }
@article {pmid19076866, year = {2008}, author = {Orr, DW}, title = {Land use and climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {1372-1374}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01099.x}, pmid = {19076866}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Environment Design ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ownership ; Social Planning ; United States ; *Urbanization ; }, }
@article {pmid19076423, year = {2008}, author = {Orlandini, S and Nejedlik, P and Eitzinger, J and Alexandrov, V and Toulios, L and Calanca, P and Trnka, M and Olesen, JE}, title = {Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture: results of inventory analysis in COST 734 countries.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1146}, number = {}, pages = {338-353}, doi = {10.1196/annals.1446.013}, pmid = {19076423}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Agriculture/*trends ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Europe ; *International Cooperation ; *Models, Statistical ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is more susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions; and risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate change analysis, studies, and impact at the European level. The results were discussed with respect to their spatial distribution in Europe and to identify possible common long- and short-term strategies for adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid19069077, year = {2008}, author = {Martello, ML}, title = {Arctic indigenous peoples as representations and representatives of climate change.}, journal = {Social studies of science}, volume = {38}, number = {3}, pages = {351-376}, doi = {10.1177/0306312707083665}, pmid = {19069077}, issn = {0306-3127}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Population Groups/*history ; }, abstract = {Recent scientific findings, as presented in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), indicate that climate change in the Arctic is happening now, at a faster rate than elsewhere in the world, and with major implications for peoples of the Arctic (especially indigenous peoples) and the rest of the planet. This paper examines scientific and political representations of Arctic indigenous peoples that have been central to the production and articulation of these claims. ACIA employs novel forms and strategies of representation that reflect changing conceptual models and practices of global change science and depict indigenous peoples as expert, exotic, and at-risk. These portrayals emerge alongside the growing political activism of Arctic indigenous peoples who present themselves as representatives or embodiments of climate change itself as they advocate for climate change mitigation policies. These mutually constitutive forms of representation suggest that scientific ways of seeing the global environment shape and are shaped by the public image and voice of global citizens. Likewise, the authority, credibility, and visibility of Arctic indigenous activists derive, in part, from their status as at-risk experts, a status buttressed by new scientific frameworks and methods that recognize and rely on the local experiences and knowledges of indigenous peoples. Analyses of these relationships linking scientific and political representations of Arctic climate change build upon science and technology studies (STS) scholarship on visualization, challenge conventional notions of globalization, and raise questions about power and accountability in global climate change research.}, }
@article {pmid19030897, year = {2008}, author = {}, title = {Vector-borne diseases: impact of climate change on vectors and rodent reservoirs. Proceedings of a conference. September 27-28, 2007. Berlin, Germany.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {103 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S1-159}, doi = {10.1007/s00436-008-1199-6}, pmid = {19030897}, issn = {0932-0113}, mesh = {Animals ; *Communicable Diseases ; *Disease Reservoirs ; *Disease Vectors ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Rodentia ; }, }
@article {pmid19030896, year = {2008}, author = {Mahrenholz, P}, title = {Climate change and adaptation needs.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {103 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S139-46}, pmid = {19030896}, issn = {0932-0113}, mesh = {*Climate ; Forecasting/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; Risk Management/*methods ; }, abstract = {Observations confirm that climate is changing and it is projected to continue changing rapidly. Adaptation is needed to mitigate the projected adverse impacts of climate change, such as climate-change-related exposures which could affect the health status of many people. Climate projections for this century are available with a high spatial and time resolution. But they are afflicted with uncertainties because of the unknown future emissions of greenhouse gases as well as natural variability and the imperfect understanding of climate science and modelling. The evaluation of climate impacts further increases the uncertainty of the result. Is it justified to act on the basis of uncertain climate information? The results of climate models often differ slightly but they show robust and one-to-one trends in the future development. A quantitative or qualitative estimation of the probability of the climate projection facilitates the appraisal of the climate projection. In accordance with the precautionary principle, stakeholders should act in order to mitigate adverse effects of climate change even under the conditions of uncertainty for instance by using methods of risk assessment and risk management. The inclusion of uncertainties should be a part of this risk assessment process.}, }
@article {pmid19030892, year = {2008}, author = {Hartelt, K and Pluta, S and Oehme, R and Kimmig, P}, title = {Spread of ticks and tick-borne diseases in Germany due to global warming.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {103 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S109-16}, pmid = {19030892}, issn = {0932-0113}, mesh = {Animals ; Bacteria/*isolation &amp; purification ; Dermacentor/*microbiology ; *Disease Vectors ; Germany/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ixodes/*microbiology ; Rodentia/*microbiology ; Tick-Borne Diseases/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Tick-transmitted diseases like tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme Borreliosis have been well known in Germany for decades. Global climate changes may influence the emergence and reemergence of diseases. Ongoing research now gives an additional focus on other tick-borne pathogens such as Coxiella burnetii, Rickettsia conorii, Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Babesia spp., the causative agents of Q-fever, Mediterranean spotted fever, Anaplasmosis and Babesiosis, respectively. The epidemiology of these pathogens was investigated on ticks as well as on rodents, the main hosts. Therefore adults of Dermacentor spp. (n = 862) and rodents (n = 119) were collected and examined for the existence of C. burnetii and Rickettsia spp. by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). In none of the ticks and rodents C. burnetii could be detected, in contrast to Rickettsia spp. where the infection rate in ticks was about 20%. Over and above that, nymphs and adults of Ixodes ricinus were also collected and investigated by PCR for A. phagocytophilum (n = 5,424), Rickettsia helvetica (n = 1,187) and Babesia spp. (n = 3,113). Thereby infection rates of 1%, 8.9% and 1%, respectively, could be determined. The prevalence in rodents was 5.3% for A. phagocytophilum and 0.8% for Babesia microti. None of the rodents was R. helvetica positive.}, }
@article {pmid19030888, year = {2008}, author = {Wilson, A and Mellor, P}, title = {Bluetongue in Europe: vectors, epidemiology and climate change.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {103 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S69-77}, pmid = {19030888}, issn = {0932-0113}, support = {BBS/B/00603/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Bluetongue/*epidemiology ; Climate ; Europe/epidemiology ; Ruminants ; }, abstract = {Bluetongue (BT) is an economically important disease of ruminants resulting from infection with bluetongue virus (BTV). Historically, BT outbreaks in Europe were rare and short-lived. However, during the last 10 years, BTV has become firmly established in southern Europe and, since 2006, has begun to occur in northern Europe. There is a substantial body of evidence linking this emergence to climate change. In this paper, we summarise the recent emergence of BTV in Europe, review the known links between climate and BTV transmission, and discuss gaps in our knowledge of the epidemiology of BT and how they might be filled by current and future research.}, }
@article {pmid19030886, year = {2008}, author = {Schröder, W and Schmidt, G}, title = {Spatial modelling of the potential temperature-dependent transmission of vector-associated diseases in the face of climate change: main results and recommendations from a pilot study in Lower Saxony (Germany).}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {103 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S55-63}, pmid = {19030886}, issn = {0932-0113}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Disease Vectors ; Germany/epidemiology ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Pilot Projects ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {The sustained climate change is going to modify the geographic distribution, the seasonal transmission gate and the intensity of the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria or the bluetongue disease. These diseases occur nowadays at higher latitudes or altitudes. A further rise in ambient temperature and rainfall will extend the duration of the season in which mosquito vectors are transmitting pathogens. The parasites transmitted by the vectors also benefit from increasing temperatures, as both their reproduction and development are then accelerated, too. Thus, it seemed prudent to examine potential effects on the seasonal transmission gate due to the ongoing and predicted climate changes. Lower Saxony (northwest Germany) is a former malaria region with highest incidences of Anopheles atroparvus and tertian malaria along the coastal zones before malaria had finally become extinct in the early 1950s. Nevertheless, the Anopheles mosquitoes which transmit the malaria pathogens have still been present in Lower Saxony up to now. This together with the climate change-related implications gave reason to investigate whether a new autochthonous transmission could take place if the malaria pathogen is introduced again in Lower Saxony. Thus, the potential spatial and temporal structure of temperature-driven malaria transmissions was mapped using the basic reproduction rate (R (0)) and measured and predicted air temperatures (1947-1960, 1961-1990, 1985-2004, 2020, 2060, 2100, each best case and worst case scenario). This paper focuses on both the summarizing of the results from this risk modelling approach and on the conclusions to be drawn. The recommendations highlight the need to link vector monitoring as one of the key elements of an epidemiological monitoring with the environmental monitoring.}, }
@article {pmid19030885, year = {2008}, author = {Platonov, AE and Fedorova, MV and Karan, LS and Shopenskaya, TA and Platonova, OV and Zhuravlev, VI}, title = {Epidemiology of West Nile infection in Volgograd, Russia, in relation to climate change and mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) bionomics.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {103 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S45-53}, pmid = {19030885}, issn = {0932-0113}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Culex/growth &amp; development/*virology ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Disease Vectors ; Humans ; Incidence ; Population Dynamics ; Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Russia/epidemiology ; West Nile Fever/*epidemiology ; West Nile virus/isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {In 1999, there was the large outbreak of West Nile fever (WNF) in Southern Russia (>500 cases in the Volgograd Province). In 2000-2004, the WNF incidence rate decreased steadily to zero, but a new outbreak occurred in 2007 (64 cases). The analysis of historical climate data for Volgograd from 1900 to present showed that the years 1999 and 2007 were the hottest ones due to a very mild "winter" (Dec.-Mar.) and a hot "summer" (June-Sep.). There are up to 15 potential WNF vectors in Volgograd, but only Culex pipiens and Culex modestus are abundant in late summer, both in urban and rural settings. Only these species are naturally attracted to and feed on both humans and birds. The RNA of pathogenic WN virus genovariant was found by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction only in Culex mosquitoes at the infection rate of about 0.04%. So these species may be considered as potential WNF "bridge vectors" between birds and humans as well as main vectors in sylvatic avain cycle. Their abundance in an epidemic season was higher in the years with a mild winter and a hot summer, so this phenomenon may serve as a connecting link between a climate and WNF epidemiology. These findings give some hints on the predisposing factors for WNF epidemic as well as the possibility to predict WNF outbreaks in the temperate climate zones.}, }
@article {pmid19030883, year = {2008}, author = {Becker, N}, title = {Influence of climate change on mosquito development and mosquito-borne diseases in Europe.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {103 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S19-28}, pmid = {19030883}, issn = {0932-0113}, mesh = {Animals ; Arbovirus Infections/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Climate ; Culicidae/*growth &amp; development ; *Disease Vectors ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/transmission ; }, abstract = {Mass occurrence of mosquitoes can have an immense impact on the quality of life in areas such as the Upper Rhine Valley. Therefore, biological and environmental measures are applied to prevent mass development in many regions of Europe. Despite successful prevention measures, the risk of contracting mosquito-borne viral diseases, such as West Nile fever, should be discounted in Central Europe. The transport of mosquitoes (e.g., through tire trade or within containers) into Germany has to be prevented. Individuals (tourists and immigrants) infected with imported vector-borne pathogens and parasites must be diagnosed and treated immediately. Mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases know no borders, and their spread is also a consequence of high mobility and globalization. Therefore, mosquito control requires international cooperation. People's increased mobility and international trade play a more important role in the dissemination of the vectors and their pathogens/parasites than increasing temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid19030882, year = {2008}, author = {Jansen, A and Frank, C and Koch, J and Stark, K}, title = {Surveillance of vector-borne diseases in Germany: trends and challenges in the view of disease emergence and climate change.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {103 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S11-7}, doi = {10.1007/s00436-008-1049-6}, pmid = {19030882}, issn = {0932-0113}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Alphavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Animals ; Chikungunya virus/isolation &amp; purification ; *Climate ; *Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Dengue/epidemiology ; Dengue Virus/isolation &amp; purification ; *Disease Vectors ; Female ; Geography ; Germany/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Orthohantavirus/isolation &amp; purification ; Hantavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; }, abstract = {The changing epidemiology of vector-borne diseases represents a growing threat to human health. Contemporary surveillance systems have to adapt to these changes. We describe temporal trends and geographic origins of vector-borne diseases in Germany with regard to strengths of existing disease surveillance and to areas marked for improvement. We focused on hantavirus infection (endemic in Germany), chikungunya fever (recently emerging in Europe) and dengue fever (imported from tropical regions), representing important subgroups of vector-borne infections. Routine surveillance data on demographics, origin of infection and the date of reporting were analysed. From 2001 through 2007, 3,005 symptomatic hantavirus infections, and 85 cases of chikungunya fever were reported, similarly 1,048 cases of dengue fever in 2002 through 2007. The geographic origin of hantavirus infection was reported for 95.5% of all cases (dengue virus, 98.4%; chikungunya virus, 100%). Hantavirus infections were acquired in Germany in 97.6% of cases (n = 2800). In 2007, there was a marked increase of hantavirus cases, mainly in areas known to be endemic for hantavirus. In 2006, imported cases of chikungunya fever primarily returned from several islands of the Indian Ocean, while the majority of imported cases in 2007 came from India. The reported number of dengue fever cases have increased since 2004. Thailand contributed the largest proportion of cases (17-43% in individual years), followed by India, Brazil and Indonesia. Surveillance of notifiable vector-borne diseases in Germany is able to timely detect spatial and temporal changes of autochthonous an imported infections. Geographic and temporal data obtained by routine surveillance served as a basis for public health recommendations. In addition to surveillance of vector-borne infections in humans, nationwide monitoring programs and inventory techniques for emerging and reemerging vectors and for wildlife disease are warranted.}, }
@article {pmid19030881, year = {2008}, author = {Aspöck, H}, title = {Postglacial formation and fluctuations of the biodiversity of Central Europe in the light of climate change.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {103 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S7-10}, pmid = {19030881}, issn = {0932-0113}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate ; Europe ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid19030880, year = {2008}, author = {Jacob, D}, title = {Short communication on regional climate change scenarios and their possible use for impact studies on vector-borne diseases.}, journal = {Parasitology research}, volume = {103 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S3-6}, doi = {10.1007/s00436-008-1099-9}, pmid = {19030880}, issn = {0932-0113}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Disease Vectors ; Forecasting ; Germany ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Atmospheric observations demonstrate that, during the last decades, the climate has changed. As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001, 2007), a mean increase of temperature by 0.09 K per decade was observed globally from 1951 to 1989. Up to now, 2008, this trend has continued. Europe experienced an extraordinary heat wave in summer 2003, with daily mean temperatures being about 10 degrees warmer than the long-term mean. The increase of temperature varies depending on the region and season. It seems to be accompanied by changes in several hydro-meteorological quantities, like number and duration of heat waves, frost periods, storminess, or precipitation. In some regions of Germany, for example, winter precipitation has increased by more than 30% within the last four decades. In addition, very intense precipitation was observed in summer 2002 in parts of the Elbe drainage basin, which faced a severe flooding. The quantification of these changes and their possible impacts on health is a very important topic, for which regional climate change scenarios provide useful information. The analyses of possible climate change focusing on hydro-meteorological quantities, which have a major influence on vectors and rodent reservoirs will be an ongoing challenge for future research.}, }
@article {pmid19025675, year = {2008}, author = {Moore, SK and Trainer, VL and Mantua, NJ and Parker, MS and Laws, EA and Backer, LC and Fleming, LE}, title = {Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {7 Suppl 2}, number = {Suppl 2}, pages = {S4}, pmid = {19025675}, issn = {1476-069X}, support = {P50 ES012740/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P01 ES010594/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P50 ES012762/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P50 ES012736/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; P01 ES010594-08/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Health ; Eukaryota/*growth &amp; development/microbiology/pathogenicity ; *Eutrophication ; Fresh Water/chemistry/microbiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Marine Toxins/analysis ; Seawater/*chemistry/microbiology ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.}, }
@article {pmid19062328, year = {2009}, author = {Hedhly, A and Hormaza, JI and Herrero, M}, title = {Global warming and sexual plant reproduction.}, journal = {Trends in plant science}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {30-36}, doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2008.11.001}, pmid = {19062328}, issn = {1360-1385}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/genetics ; Biological Evolution ; Fertilization ; Germ Cells/growth &amp; development ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Phenotype ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Pollination ; Selection, Genetic ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The sexual reproductive phase in plants might be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming. The direct effect of temperature changes on the reproductive process has been documented previously, and recent data from other physiological processes that are affected by rising temperatures seem to reinforce the susceptibility of the reproductive process to a changing climate. But the reproductive phase also provides the plant with an opportunity to adapt to environmental changes. Understanding phenotypic plasticity and gametophyte selection for prevailing temperatures, along with possible epigenetic changes during this process, could provide new insights into plant evolution under a global-warming scenario.}, }
@article {pmid19060210, year = {2009}, author = {Latif, M and Keenlyside, NS}, title = {El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {106}, number = {49}, pages = {20578-20583}, pmid = {19060210}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Global Warming ; Pacific Ocean ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.}, }
@article {pmid19059749, year = {2009}, author = {Swynghedauw, B}, title = {[Medical consequences of global warming].}, journal = {Presse medicale (Paris, France : 1983)}, volume = {38}, number = {4}, pages = {551-561}, doi = {10.1016/j.lpm.2008.02.022}, pmid = {19059749}, issn = {2213-0276}, mesh = {Biological Evolution ; Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality ; Cyclonic Storms ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Infection Control/trends ; Morbidity/*trends ; Mortality/*trends ; Public Health/trends ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {INTRODUCTION: The global warming of the planet and its anthropogenic origin are no longer debatable. Nevertheless, from a medical point of view, while the epidemiological consequences of the warming are rather well-known, the biological consequences are still poorly documented. This is a good example of evolutionary (or darwinian) medicine.<br><br>METHODS: The research strategy of this systematic review is based on both PubMed during the period of 2000-2007 and several reviews articles for the period >2000.<br><br>RESULTS: From a medical point of view, there are four types of consequences. 1-The simple elevation of the average external temperature is accompanied by an increased global mortality and morbidity, the mortality/external temperature is a J curve, with the warm branch more pronounced than the cold one. A recent study on 50 different cities had confirmed that global, and more specifically cardiovascular mortalities were enhanced at the two extreme of the temperatures. 2-The acute heatwaves, such as that which happened in France in August 2003, have been studied in detail by several groups. The mortality which was observed during the recent heatwaves was not compensated by harvesting, strongly suggesting that we were dealing with heat stroke, and that such an increased mortality was more reflecting the limits of our adaptational capacities than aggravation of a previously altered health status. 3-Climate changes have modified the repartition and virulence of pathogenic agents (dengue, malaria...) and above all their vectors. Such modifications were exponential and are likely to reflect the biological properties of parasites. 4-Indirect consequences of global warming include variations in the hydraulic cycle, the new form of tropical hurricanes and many different changes affecting both biodiversity and ecosystems. They will likely result in an increased level of poverty.<br><br>DISCUSSION: These finding gave rise to several basic biological questions, rarely evoked, and that concern the limits of the adaptational capacities of human genome. Our genome has indeed been shaped in the past by a rather cold environment which has acutely been modified. The immediate physiological regulation includes sweating and skin vasodilatation. The latter may strongly enhance the cardiac output which explains the heat-induced cardiac decompensation. Long term regulation depends upon the numerous mechanisms of uncoupling of the mitochondrial respiration. For the moment, the thermolytic mechanisms and their regulation were rather poorly documented.}, }
@article {pmid19057695, year = {2008}, author = {Ebi, KL and McGregor, G}, title = {Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, and health impacts.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {116}, number = {11}, pages = {1449-1455}, pmid = {19057695}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; Ozone/*analysis/toxicity ; Particle Size ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Because the state of the atmosphere determines the development, transport, dispersion, and deposition of air pollutants, there is concern that climate change could affect morbidity and mortality associated with elevated concentrations of these gases and fine particles. We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health.<br><br>DATA SOURCES: We review studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and studies projecting the impacts of these changes on morbidity and mortality.<br><br>DATA SYNTHESIS: Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty include the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given these uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, which would increase morbidity and mortality. Few projections are available for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, primarily because few studies have been conducted.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Additional research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution-related health impacts. If improved models continue to project higher ozone concentrations with climate change, then reducing greenhouse gas emissions would enhance the health of current and future generations.}, }
@article {pmid19057678, year = {2008}, author = {Hrynkow, SH}, title = {Climate change and health research: time for teamwork.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {116}, number = {11}, pages = {A470}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.12150}, pmid = {19057678}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Health Status ; Humans ; National Institutes of Health (U.S.) ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid19053541, year = {2008}, author = {Papadimitriou, VC and Portmann, RW and Fahey, DW and Mühle, J and Weiss, RF and Burkholder, JB}, title = {Experimental and theoretical study of the atmospheric chemistry and global warming potential of SO2F2.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {112}, number = {49}, pages = {12657-12666}, doi = {10.1021/jp806368u}, pmid = {19053541}, issn = {1520-5215}, mesh = {Absorption ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Chlorine/chemistry ; Electrons ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hydroxides/chemistry ; Kinetics ; *Quantum Theory ; Spectrophotometry, Ultraviolet ; Sulfinic Acids/*chemistry ; Thermodynamics ; }, abstract = {In this work, potential atmospheric loss processes for SO2F2, a commercially used biocide (fumigant), have been studied and its global warming potential calculated. Rate coefficients for the gas-phase reactions OH + SO2F2 --> products, k1, and Cl + SO2F2 --> products, k4, were determined using a relative rate technique to be k1 < 1 x 10(-16) cm3 molecule-1 s-1 at 296 and 333 K and k4(296 K) < 5 x 10(-17) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1). UV absorption cross sections of SO2F2 were measured at 184.9, 193, and 213.9 nm, and its photolysis quantum yield at 193 nm was determined to be <0.02. The atmospheric lifetime of SO2F2 with respect to loss by OH, Cl, and O(1D) reaction and UV photodissociation is estimated to be >300, >10000, 700, and >4700 years, respectively. The stratospheric lifetime of SO2F2 is calculated using a two-dimensional model to be 630 years. The global warming potential (GWP) for SO2F2 was calculated to be 4780 for the 100 year time horizon using infrared absorption cross sections measured in this work and a SO2F2 globally averaged atmospheric lifetime of 36 years, which is determined primarily by ocean uptake, reported by Mühle et al. (Mühle, J.; Huang, J.; Weiss, R. F.; Prinn, R. G.; Miller, B. R.; Salameh, P. K.; Harth, C. M.; Fraser, P. J.; Porter, L. W.; Greally, B. R.; O'Doherty, S.; Simonds, P. G. J. Geophys. Res., submitted for publication, 2008). Reaction channels and the possible formation of stable adducts in reactions 1 and 4 were evaluated using ab initio, CCSD(T), and density functional theory, B3P86, quantum mechanical electronic structure calculations. The most likely reaction product channels were found to be highly endothermic, consistent with the upper limits of the rate coefficients measured in this work.}, }
@article {pmid19052780, year = {2009}, author = {Gosling, SN and McGregor, GR and Lowe, JA}, title = {Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, pages = {31-51}, pmid = {19052780}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {Boston/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Hungary/epidemiology ; London/epidemiology ; Models, Theoretical ; New South Wales/epidemiology ; Portugal/epidemiology ; Texas/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heat-related mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heat-related mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2 degrees C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.}, }
@article {pmid19044164, year = {2008}, author = {Woo, JH and He, S and Tagaris, E and Liao, KJ and Manomaiphiboon, K and Amar, P and Russell, AG}, title = {Development of North American emission inventories for air quality modeling under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {58}, number = {11}, pages = {1483-1494}, doi = {10.3155/1047-3289.58.11.1483}, pmid = {19044164}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Air Pollutants, Occupational/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*analysis ; Algorithms ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Models, Statistical ; New England ; Oxidants, Photochemical/analysis ; Ozone/analysis ; Power Plants ; }, abstract = {An assessment of how future climate change will impact regional air quality requires projecting emissions many decades into the future in a consistent manner. An approach that integrates the impact of both the current regulations and the longer-term national and global trends is developed to construct an emissions inventory (EI) for North America for the mid-century in support of a regional modeling study of ozone and particulate matter (PM) less than or equal to 2.5 microm (PM2.5). Because the time horizon of such a distant projection is beyond that of EIs used in typical modeling studies, it is necessary to identify a practical approach that allows the emission projections to account for emission controls and climatic and energy-use changes. However, a technical challenge arises because this requires integration of various different types of information with which emissions from human activities are associated. Often, emission information in global models has less detail and uses coarser spatiotemporal resolution. The method developed here is based on data availability, spatiotemporal coverage and resolution, and future-scenario consistency (i.e., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [IPCC SRES] A1B), and consists of two major steps: (1) near-future EI projection (to the year 2020), and (2) longer-term EI projection (to mid-century). The first step is based closely on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clean Air Interstate Rule EI, the Environment Canada EI, as well estimates of Mexico's EI; whereas the second step follows approaches proposed by the EI from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), developed by Netherlands's National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). For the United States, the year-2050 emissions for nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), PM2.5, anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ammonia are projected to change by -55, -55, -30, -40, and +20%, respectively, compared with 2001. NOx and SO2 emission changes are very similar in total amount but different in sectoral contribution. The projected emission trends for Canada and Mexico differ considerably. After taking into account the modeled climate changes, biogenic VOC emission increases from three countries overwhelm the decreases in anthropogenic VOC emissions, leading to a net small increase (approximately 2%) in overall VOC emissions.}, }
@article {pmid19044154, year = {2008}, author = {Edgerton, SA and MacCracken, MC and Jacobson, MZ and Ayala, A and Whitman, CE and Trexler, MC}, title = {Prospects for future climate change and the reasons for early action.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {58}, number = {11}, pages = {1386-1400}, doi = {10.3155/1047-3289.58.11.1386}, pmid = {19044154}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Air Pollutants, Occupational/*analysis ; Catalysis ; Lubricants ; Vehicle Emissions/*prevention &amp; control ; Zeolites/*chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid19032595, year = {2009}, author = {Heino, J and Virkkala, R and Toivonen, H}, title = {Climate change and freshwater biodiversity: detected patterns, future trends and adaptations in northern regions.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {84}, number = {1}, pages = {39-54}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-185X.2008.00060.x}, pmid = {19032595}, issn = {1469-185X}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Current rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been rapid at the levels of ecosystems, communities, and species. Most research on climate change effects on biodiversity has concentrated on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have already been detected in response to climate change. The studies that have considered organisms in the freshwater realm have also shown that freshwater biodiversity is highly vulnerable to climate change, with extinction rates and extirpations of freshwater species matching or exceeding those suggested for better-known terrestrial taxa. There is some evidence that freshwater species have exhibited range shifts in response to climate change in the last millennia, centuries, and decades. However, the effects are typically species-specific, with cold-water organisms being generally negatively affected and warm-water organisms positively affected. However, detected range shifts are based on findings from a relatively low number of taxonomic groups, samples from few freshwater ecosystems, and few regions. The lack of a wider knowledge hinders predictions of the responses of much of freshwater biodiversity to climate change and other major anthropogenic stressors. Due to the lack of detailed distributional information for most freshwater taxonomic groups and the absence of distribution-climate models, future studies should aim at furthering our knowledge about these aspects of the ecology of freshwater organisms. Such information is not only important with regard to the basic ecological issue of predicting the responses of freshwater species to climate variables, but also when assessing the applied issue of the capacity of protected areas to accommodate future changes in the distributions of freshwater species. This is a huge challenge, because most current protected areas have not been delineated based on the requirements of freshwater organisms. Thus, the requirements of freshwater organisms should be taken into account in the future delineation of protected areas and in the estimation of the degree to which protected areas accommodate freshwater biodiversity in the changing climate and associated environmental changes.}, }
@article {pmid19029730, year = {2008}, author = {Nováky, B}, title = {Climate change impact on water balance of Lake Balaton.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {58}, number = {9}, pages = {1865-1869}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2008.563}, pmid = {19029730}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Fresh Water ; Hungary ; }, abstract = {Impact of climate change on average annual water balance of Lake Balaton was examined under different climate scenarios. Increase in annual temperature by 1.5 degrees C and decrease in annual precipitation by 5% are likely to lead to considerable decrease in water recharge of lake. If an increase in annual temperature by 2.8 degrees C is coupled with a decrease in precipitation by 10%, Lake Balaton could turn into a closed lake without outflow.}, }
@article {pmid19019409, year = {2009}, author = {Carto, SL and Weaver, AJ and Hetherington, R and Lam, Y and Wiebe, EC}, title = {Out of Africa and into an ice age: on the role of global climate change in the late Pleistocene migration of early modern humans out of Africa.}, journal = {Journal of human evolution}, volume = {56}, number = {2}, pages = {139-151}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhevol.2008.09.004}, pmid = {19019409}, issn = {0047-2484}, mesh = {Africa ; *Climatic Processes ; *Cold Temperature ; Emigration and Immigration/*history ; Fossils ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; Ice Cover ; Models, Theoretical ; *Paleontology ; Seawater ; }, abstract = {The results from two climate model simulations are used to explore the relationship between North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of African aridity around 100,000 years ago. Through the use of illustrative simulations with an Earth System Climate Model, it is shown that freshwater fluxes associated with ice sheet surges into the North Atlantic, known as Heinrich events, lead to the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone over Africa. This, combined with the overall increased aridity in the cooler mean climate, leads to substantial changes in simulated African vegetation cover, particularly in the Sahel. We suggest that Heinrich events, which occurred episodically throughout the last glacial cycle, led to abrupt changes in climate that may have rendered large parts of North, East, and West Africa unsuitable for hominin occupation, thus compelling early Homo sapiens to migrate out of Africa.}, }
@article {pmid19017264, year = {2008}, author = {Yang, FS and Li, YF and Ding, X and Wang, XQ}, title = {Extensive population expansion of Pedicularis longiflora (Orobanchaceae) on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its correlation with the Quaternary climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {17}, number = {23}, pages = {5135-5145}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2008.03976.x}, pmid = {19017264}, issn = {1365-294X}, mesh = {China ; Climate ; DNA, Chloroplast/genetics ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; Geography ; Haplotypes ; Pedicularis/*genetics ; *Phylogeny ; Sequence Alignment ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is thought to be more strongly affected by the Quaternary glaciations than most other regions of the same latitude. It would be of great interest to investigate the population genetic structure of organisms distributed on the platform and its correlation with the Quaternary climatic oscillations. Here we used the chloroplast (cp)DNA trnT-trnF sequence to study genetic variation and phylogeography of Pedicularis longiflora, an alpine herb with extensive distribution on the QTP. Based on a range-wide sampling comprising 41 populations and 910 individuals, we detected 30 cpDNA haplotypes that were divided into five clades by phylogenetic and network analyses and a strong phylogeographical structure. All haplotypes but one in the three basal clades occur exclusively in the southeast QTP, whereas haplotypes in the young clade V occupy almost the whole species range. In particular, the young haplotype H18 occurs in 420 individuals, even at a frequency of 100% in some QTP platform populations and the Altai population. The haplotype distribution pattern, together with molecular clock estimation and mismatch distribution analysis, suggests that the southeast QTP was either a refuge for P. longiflora during the Quaternary climatic change or is the place of origin of the species. The present wide distribution of the species on the QTP platform has resulted from recent population expansions which could be dated back to 120,000-17,000 years ago, a period mostly before the last glacial maximum. The possible relationships among geographic genetic structure, climatic change and species diversification in Pedicularis are also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid19017131, year = {2008}, author = {Barua, D and Heckathorn, SA and Coleman, JS}, title = {Variation in heat-shock proteins and photosynthetic thermotolerance among natural populations of Chenopodium album L. from contrasting thermal environments: implications for plant responses to global warming.}, journal = {Journal of integrative plant biology}, volume = {50}, number = {11}, pages = {1440-1451}, doi = {10.1111/j.1744-7909.2008.00756.x}, pmid = {19017131}, issn = {1744-7909}, mesh = {Chenopodium album/*metabolism/*physiology ; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Heat-Shock Proteins/*metabolism ; Photosynthesis/*physiology ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Production of heat-shock proteins (Hsps) is a key adaptation to acute heat stress and will be important in determining plant responses to climate change. Further, intraspecifc variation in Hsps, which will influence species-level response to global warming, has rarely been examined in naturally occurring plants. To understand intraspecific variation in plant Hsps and its relevance to global warming, we examined Hsp content and thermotolerance in five naturally occurring populations of Chenopodium album L. from contrasting thermal environments grown at low and high temperatures. As expected, Hsp accumulation varied between populations, but this was related more to habitat variability than to mean temperature. Unexpectedly, Hsp accumulation decreased with increasing variability of habitat temperatures. Hsp accumulation also decreased with increased experimental growth temperatures. Physiological thermotolerance was partitioned into basal and induced components. As with Hsps, induced thermotolerance decreased with increasing temperature variability. Thus, populations native to the more stressful habitats, or grown at higher temperatures, had lower Hsp levels and induced thermotolerance, suggesting a greater reliance on basal mechanisms for thermotolerance. These results suggest that future global climate change will differentially impact ecotypes within species, possibly by selecting for increased basal versus inducible thermotolerance.}, }
@article {pmid19017130, year = {2008}, author = {Chiang, JM and Iverson, LR and Prasad, A and Brown, KJ}, title = {Effects of climate change and shifts in forest composition on forest net primary production.}, journal = {Journal of integrative plant biology}, volume = {50}, number = {11}, pages = {1426-1439}, doi = {10.1111/j.1744-7909.2008.00749.x}, pmid = {19017130}, issn = {1744-7909}, mesh = {Arkansas ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Greenhouse Effect ; Maine ; Models, Theoretical ; Ohio ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; United States ; West Virginia ; Wisconsin ; }, abstract = {Forests are dynamic in both structure and species composition, and these dynamics are strongly influenced by climate. However, the net effects of future tree species composition on net primary production (NPP) are not well understood. The objective of this work was to model the potential range shifts of tree species (DISTRIB Model) and predict their impacts on NPP (PnET-II Model) that will be associated with alterations in species composition. We selected four 200 x 200 km areas in Wisconsin, Maine, Arkansas, and the Ohio-West Virginia area, representing focal areas of potential species range shifts. PnET-II model simulations were carried out assuming that all forests achieved steady state, of which the species compositions were predicted by DISTRIB model with no migration limitation. The total NPP under the current climate ranged from 552 to 908 g C/m(2) per year. The effects of potential species redistributions on NPP were moderate (-12% to +8%) compared with the influence of future climatic changes (-60% to +25%). The direction and magnitude of climate change effects on NPP were largely dependent on the degree of warming and water balance. Thus, the magnitude of future climate change can affect the feedback system between the atmosphere and biosphere.}, }
@article {pmid19008966, year = {2005}, author = {Brownstein, JS and Holford, TR and Fish, D}, title = {Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America.}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {38-46}, pmid = {19008966}, issn = {1612-9210}, support = {R21 AI065848/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R21 AI065848-01A1/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, abstract = {An understanding of the influence of climate change on Ixodes scapularis, the main vector of Lyme disease in North America, is a fundamental component in assessing changes in the spatial distribution of human risk for the disease. We used a climate suitability model of I. scapularis to examine the potential effects of global climate change on future Lyme disease risk in North America. A climate-based logistic model was first used to explain the current distribution of I. scapularis in North America. Climate change scenarios were then applied to extrapolate the model in time and produce forecasts of vector establishment. The spatially modeled relationship between I. scapularis presence and large-scale environmental data generated the current pattern of I. scapularis across North America with an accuracy of 89% (p<0.0001). Extrapolation of the model revealed a significant expansion of I. scapularis north into Canada with an increase in suitable habitat of 213% by the 2080's. Climate change will also result in a retraction of the vector from southern United States, and movement into the central United States. This report predicts the effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk and specifically forecasts the emergence of a tick-borne infectious disease in Canada. Our modeling approach could thus be used to outline where future control strategies and prevention efforts need to be applied.}, }
@article {pmid19008435, year = {2008}, author = {Alley, RB and Fahnestock, M and Joughin, I}, title = {Climate change. Understanding glacier flow in changing times.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {322}, number = {5904}, pages = {1061-1062}, doi = {10.1126/science.1166366}, pmid = {19008435}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18991898, year = {2008}, author = {Siddiqi, TA}, title = {Asia's changing role in global climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1140}, number = {}, pages = {22-30}, doi = {10.1196/annals.1454.023}, pmid = {18991898}, issn = {1749-6632}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; Air Pollution ; Asia ; Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; Environmental Pollution ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.}, }
@article {pmid18990951, year = {2008}, author = {Cullen, E}, title = {Climate change and water related illness.}, journal = {Irish medical journal}, volume = {101}, number = {8}, pages = {234, 236}, pmid = {18990951}, issn = {0332-3102}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Disease Vectors ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Ireland ; *Water ; }, }
@article {pmid18990935, year = {2008}, author = {Berg, R}, title = {The future of children's environmental health: coping with global warming.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health}, volume = {71}, number = {3}, pages = {56-58}, pmid = {18990935}, issn = {0022-0892}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Environmental Health ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid18988815, year = {2008}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Chinese cave speaks of a fickle sun bringing down ancient dynasties.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {322}, number = {5903}, pages = {837-838}, doi = {10.1126/science.322.5903.837a}, pmid = {18988815}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18988814, year = {2008}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Rules for ocean fertilization could repel companies.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {322}, number = {5903}, pages = {835}, doi = {10.1126/science.322.5903.835}, pmid = {18988814}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Ecosystem ; *Eutrophication ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; Iron ; Nitrogen ; Oceans and Seas ; Plankton/*growth &amp; development ; *Research ; *Seawater ; }, }
@article {pmid18987742, year = {2008}, author = {Kausrud, KL and Mysterud, A and Steen, H and Vik, JO and Østbye, E and Cazelles, B and Framstad, E and Eikeset, AM and Mysterud, I and Solhøy, T and Stenseth, NC}, title = {Linking climate change to lemming cycles.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {456}, number = {7218}, pages = {93-97}, doi = {10.1038/nature07442}, pmid = {18987742}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Arvicolinae/*physiology ; Birds/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humidity ; Models, Biological ; Norway ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Snow ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The population cycles of rodents at northern latitudes have puzzled people for centuries, and their impact is manifest throughout the alpine ecosystem. Climate change is known to be able to drive animal population dynamics between stable and cyclic phases, and has been suggested to cause the recent changes in cyclic dynamics of rodents and their predators. But although predator-rodent interactions are commonly argued to be the cause of the Fennoscandian rodent cycles, the role of the environment in the modulation of such dynamics is often poorly understood in natural systems. Hence, quantitative links between climate-driven processes and rodent dynamics have so far been lacking. Here we show that winter weather and snow conditions, together with density dependence in the net population growth rate, account for the observed population dynamics of the rodent community dominated by lemmings (Lemmus lemmus) in an alpine Norwegian core habitat between 1970 and 1997, and predict the observed absence of rodent peak years after 1994. These local rodent dynamics are coherent with alpine bird dynamics both locally and over all of southern Norway, consistent with the influence of large-scale fluctuations in winter conditions. The relationship between commonly available meteorological data and snow conditions indicates that changes in temperature and humidity, and thus conditions in the subnivean space, seem to markedly affect the dynamics of alpine rodents and their linked groups. The pattern of less regular rodent peaks, and corresponding changes in the overall dynamics of the alpine ecosystem, thus seems likely to prevail over a growing area under projected climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18986960, year = {2009}, author = {Seo, C and Thorne, JH and Hannah, L and Thuiller, W}, title = {Scale effects in species distribution models: implications for conservation planning under climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {39-43}, pmid = {18986960}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; California ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Linear Models ; *Models, Biological ; Neural Networks, Computer ; Population Density ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Predictions of future species' ranges under climate change are needed for conservation planning, for which species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used. However, global climate model-based (GCM) output grids can bias the area identified as suitable when these are used as SDM predictor variables, because GCM outputs, typically at least 50x50 km, are biologically coarse. We tested the assumption that species ranges can be equally well portrayed in SDMs operating on base data of different grid sizes by comparing SDM performance statistics and area selected by four SDMs run at seven grid sizes, for nine species of contrasting range size. Area selected was disproportionately larger for SDMs run on larger grid sizes, indicating a cut-off point above which model results were less reliable. Up to 2.89 times more species range area was selected by SDMs operating on grids above 50x50 km, compared to SDMs operating at 1 km2. Spatial congruence between areas selected as range also diverged as grid size increased, particularly for species with ranges between 20000 and 90000 km2. These results indicate the need for caution when using such data to plan future protected areas, because an overly large predicted range could lead to inappropriate reserve location selection.}, }
@article {pmid18983917, year = {2008}, author = {Zell, R and Krumbholz, A and Wutzler, P}, title = {Impact of global warming on viral diseases: what is the evidence?.}, journal = {Current opinion in biotechnology}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {652-660}, pmid = {18983917}, issn = {1879-0429}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Disease Vectors ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Virus Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; }, abstract = {Global warming is believed to induce a gradual climate change. Hence, it was predicted that tropical insects might expand their habitats thereby transmitting pathogens to humans. Although this concept is a conclusive presumption, clear evidence is still lacking--at least for viral diseases. Epidemiological data indicate that seasonality of many diseases is further influenced by strong single weather events, interannual climate phenomena, and anthropogenic factors. So far, emergence of new diseases was unlinked to global warming. Re-emergence and dispersion of diseases was correlated with translocation of pathogen-infected vectors or hosts. Coupled ocean/atmosphere circulations and 'global change' that also includes shifting of demographic, social, and economical conditions are important drivers of viral disease variability whereas global warming at best contributes.}, }
@article {pmid18983071, year = {2008}, author = {Podesta, J}, title = {Climate change: a matter of national security. Interview by Erica Engelhaupt.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {42}, number = {20}, pages = {7548-7549}, doi = {10.1021/es802320z}, pmid = {18983071}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Residence Characteristics ; *Security Measures ; }, }
@article {pmid18975860, year = {2008}, author = {Perkel, J}, title = {A cool way to learn about climate change.}, journal = {Analytical chemistry}, volume = {80}, number = {21}, pages = {7908-7909}, doi = {10.1021/ac801861u}, pmid = {18975860}, issn = {1520-6882}, mesh = {Air/analysis ; *Climate ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid18974894, year = {2008}, author = {Leal Filho, W}, title = {10th Anniversary Focus: an overview of trends related to tropical rainforest depletion and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {10}, number = {11}, pages = {1261-1264}, doi = {10.1039/b815972f}, pmid = {18974894}, issn = {1464-0333}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; *Trees ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Public awareness about the problems related to rainforest depletion increased considerably in the 1990s, but the level of emphasis to the problems faced by the world's tropical rainforests has become conspicuously low in recent years. Yet, there is a heightened sense of urgency in respect of the need to handle the challenges posed by climate change and the role that rainforest depletion may play in this process. This paper reviews the relationships between rainforest depletion and climate change, and outlines some areas where action is needed.}, }
@article {pmid18974339, year = {2008}, author = {Pörtner, HO and Farrell, AP}, title = {Ecology. Physiology and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {322}, number = {5902}, pages = {690-692}, doi = {10.1126/science.1163156}, pmid = {18974339}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate ; Cues ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*physiology ; Food Chain ; Growth ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen ; Plankton/*physiology ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid18974337, year = {2008}, author = {Vecchi, GA and Swanson, KL and Soden, BJ}, title = {Climate change. Whither hurricane activity?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {322}, number = {5902}, pages = {687-689}, doi = {10.1126/science.1164396}, pmid = {18974337}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18956974, year = {2008}, author = {Dahlhoff, EP and Fearnley, SL and Bruce, DA and Gibbs, AG and Stoneking, R and McMillan, DM and Deiner, K and Smiley, JT and Rank, NE}, title = {Effects of temperature on physiology and reproductive success of a montane leaf beetle: implications for persistence of native populations enduring climate change.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {81}, number = {6}, pages = {718-732}, doi = {10.1086/590165}, pmid = {18956974}, issn = {1537-5293}, mesh = {Animals ; Coleoptera/genetics/*physiology ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Gene Expression Regulation/physiology ; Greenhouse Effect ; HSP70 Heat-Shock Proteins/metabolism ; Male ; Reproduction/physiology ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Understanding how climate change impacts natural systems requires investigations of the effects of environmental variation on vulnerable species and documentation of how populations respond to change. The willow beetle Chrysomela aeneicollis is ideal for such studies. It lives in California's Sierra Nevada on the southern edge of its worldwide range. Beetles experience elevated air temperatures during summertime egg laying and larval development. Exposure to these temperatures causes physiological stress, which may reduce reproductive success and endanger populations. The glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI) is a marker of temperature adaptation in C. aeneicollis. PGI allele frequency varies across a latitudinal gradient: allele 1 is common in Rock Creek (RC), which is cooler and to the north, and allele 4 is common in Big Pine Creek (BPC), which is warmer and to the south. In populations that are intermediate in geography and climate (e.g., Bishop Creek [BC]), PGI-4 frequency increases from north to south such that alleles 1 and 4 are in relatively equal frequency in southern BC. Over the past decade, Sierra Nevada beetle populations have colonized high elevations and have become extinct at lower elevations where they were once common. In BC, the magnitude of PGI allele frequency fluctuations among life-history stages is related to maximal air temperature, with the frequency of PGI-4 increasing after the hottest part of summer. To identify mechanisms that may cause shifts in PGI allele frequency, we measured metabolic rate and fecundity for beetles collected at BC. Metabolic rate of males and females was measured at 20 degrees and 36 degrees C using flow-through respirometry. To measure laboratory fecundity, mating pairs were acclimated for 4 h each afternoon at a control temperature (20 degrees C) or at mildly elevated temperatures (26 degrees or 32 degrees C) and number of eggs laid was counted daily for 24 d, after which tissue levels of 70-kD heat shock proteins (Hsp70) were determined. Previous studies had demonstrated differences in Hsp70 expression among PGI genotypes at these temperatures. To measure field fecundity, mating pairs from BC were transplanted to similar elevations in BPC, BC, and RC and were monitored in situ for 24 d. Metabolic rate was higher for PGI 4-4 genotypes than for PGI 1-4 or PGI 1-1 individuals at 36 degrees C but not at 20 degrees C. In contrast, laboratory fecundity was greatest for females possessing PGI-1, independent of acclimation temperature. At the end of the laboratory fecundity experiment, Hsp70 expression was positively related to fecundity, suggesting minimal reproductive cost of upregulation of heat shock proteins in response to mild heat stress. In the field, fecundity was highest for PGI 1-1 and PGI 1-4 individuals in RC and PGI 4-4 individuals in BPC and was similar for all genotypes in BC. Thus, fecundity in nature was greatest for the genotypes that were most common in each area. Taken together, data reported here suggest that hot, dry summers in the Sierra Nevada may result in an increase in frequency of the PGI-4 allele and shifts to higher elevations for C. aeneicollis populations.}, }
@article {pmid18955707, year = {2008}, author = {Willis, CG and Ruhfel, B and Primack, RB and Miller-Rushing, AJ and Davis, CC}, title = {Phylogenetic patterns of species loss in Thoreau's woods are driven by climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {105}, number = {44}, pages = {17029-17033}, pmid = {18955707}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Extinction, Biological ; Flowers/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Greenhouse Effect ; Massachusetts ; *Phylogeny ; Rubiaceae/physiology ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Climate change has led to major changes in the phenology (the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering) of some species but not others. The extent to which flowering-time response to temperature is shared among closely related species might have important consequences for community-wide patterns of species loss under rapid climate change. Henry David Thoreau initiated a dataset of the Concord, Massachusetts, flora that spans approximately 150 years and provides information on changes in species abundance and flowering time. When these data are analyzed in a phylogenetic context, they indicate that change in abundance is strongly correlated with flowering-time response. Species that do not respond to temperature have decreased greatly in abundance, and include among others anemones and buttercups [Ranunculaceae pro parte (p.p.)], asters and campanulas (Asterales), bluets (Rubiaceae p.p.), bladderworts (Lentibulariaceae), dogwoods (Cornaceae), lilies (Liliales), mints (Lamiaceae p.p.), orchids (Orchidaceae), roses (Rosaceae p.p.), saxifrages (Saxifragales), and violets (Malpighiales). Because flowering-time response traits are shared among closely related species, our findings suggest that climate change has affected and will likely continue to shape the phylogenetically biased pattern of species loss in Thoreau's woods.}, }
@article {pmid18948509, year = {2008}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Oceanography. Global warming throws some curves in the Atlantic Ocean.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {322}, number = {5901}, pages = {515}, doi = {10.1126/science.322.5901.515a}, pmid = {18948509}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18945997, year = {2008}, author = {Chapman, AB and Guay-Woodford, LM}, title = {Nurturing passion in a time of academic climate change: the modern-day challenge of junior faculty development.}, journal = {Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN}, volume = {3}, number = {6}, pages = {1878-1883}, pmid = {18945997}, issn = {1555-905X}, support = {UL1 RR025008/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; UL1 RR025777/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Academic Medical Centers/economics/*organization &amp; administration ; Biomedical Research/economics/*organization &amp; administration ; Career Choice ; Career Mobility ; Cooperative Behavior ; Education, Medical/economics/*organization &amp; administration ; Faculty, Medical/*organization &amp; administration ; Family Relations ; Humans ; Job Satisfaction ; Mentors ; Personnel Selection ; Program Development ; Quality of Life ; Research Support as Topic ; *Staff Development ; Workload ; }, }
@article {pmid18940451, year = {2008}, author = {}, title = {Making health count in climate change policy.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {372}, number = {9647}, pages = {1360}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61567-6}, pmid = {18940451}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate ; Health Policy/*trends ; Health Priorities/organization &amp; administration/*trends ; Humans ; *World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid18937565, year = {2008}, author = {Ritchie, EG and Bolitho, EE}, title = {Australia's savanna herbivores: bioclimatic distributions and an assessment of the potential impact of regional climate change.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {81}, number = {6}, pages = {880-890}, doi = {10.1086/588171}, pmid = {18937565}, issn = {1537-5293}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; *Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Macropodidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The future impacts of climate change are predicted to significantly affect the survival of many species. Recent studies indicate that even species that are relatively mobile and/or have large geographic ranges may be at risk of range contractions or extinction. An ecologically and evolutionary significant group of mammals that has been largely overlooked in this research is Australia's large marsupial herbivores, the macropodids (kangaroos). The aims of our investigation were to define and compare the climatic conditions that influence the current distributions of four sympatric large macropodids in northern Australia (Macropus antilopinus, Macropus robustus, Macropus giganteus, and Macropus rufus) and to predict the potential future impact of climate change on these species. Our results suggest that contemporary distributions of these large macropodids are associated with well-defined climatic gradients (tropical and temperate conditions) and that climatic seasonality is also important. Bioclimatic modeling predicted an average reduction in northern Australian macropodid distributions of 48% +/- 16.4% in response to increases of 2.0 degrees C. At this temperature, the distribution of M. antilopinus was reduced by 89% +/-0.4%. We predict that increases of 6.0 degrees C may cause severe range reductions for all four macropodids (96% +/-2.1%) in northern Australia, and this range reduction may result in the extinction of M. antilopinus.}, }
@article {pmid18937054, year = {2009}, author = {Shrader-Frechette, KS}, title = {Data trimming, nuclear emissions, and climate change.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {19-23}, pmid = {18937054}, issn = {1353-3452}, mesh = {Data Interpretation, Statistical ; Environmental Monitoring/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Nuclear Fission ; *Policy Making ; }, abstract = {Ethics requires good science. Many scientists, government leaders, and industry representatives support tripling of global-nuclear-energy capacity on the grounds that nuclear fission is "carbon free" and "releases no greenhouse gases." However, such claims are scientifically questionable (and thus likely to lead to ethically questionable energy choices) for at least 3 reasons. (i) They rely on trimming the data on nuclear greenhouse-gas emissions (GHGE), perhaps in part because flawed Kyoto Protocol conventions require no full nuclear-fuel-cycle assessment of carbon content. (ii) They underestimate nuclear-fuel-cycle releases by erroneously assuming that mostly high-grade uranium ore, with much lower emissions, is used. (iii) They inconsistently compare nuclear-related GHGE only to those from fossil fuels, rather than to those from the best GHG-avoiding energy technologies. Once scientists take account of (i)-(iii), it is possible to show that although the nuclear fuel cycle releases (per kWh) much fewer GHG than coal and oil, nevertheless it releases far more GHG than wind and solar-photovoltaic. Although there may be other, ethical, reasons to support nuclear tripling, reducing or avoiding GHG does not appear to be one of them.}, }
@article {pmid18935961, year = {2008}, author = {Ebi, KL and Helmer, M and Vainio, J}, title = {The health impacts of climate change: getting started on a new theme.}, journal = {Prehospital and disaster medicine}, volume = {23}, number = {4}, pages = {s60-4}, doi = {10.1017/s1049023x00021269}, pmid = {18935961}, issn = {1049-023X}, mesh = {*Climate ; Congresses as Topic ; *Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is widely acknowledged as a key global challenge for the 21st century, and is projected to significantly affect population health and human well-being. All of the climate change-related changes in weather patterns will affect human health, from boosting mental well-being to mortality from large-scale disasters. Human health can be affected both directly and indirectly. For various reasons, the health sector has been slow in responding to the projected health impacts of climate change. To effectively prepare for and cope with climate change impacts, public health must move from a focus on surveillance and response to a greater emphasis on prediction and prevention. The targeted agenda program dialogue identified three priorities for climate change related health actions: heat waves, vector-borne diseases; and malnutrition.}, }
@article {pmid18930514, year = {2008}, author = {Beier, C and Emmett, BA and Peñuelas, J and Schmidt, IK and Tietema, A and Estiarte, M and Gundersen, P and Llorens, L and Riis-Nielsen, T and Sowerby, A and Gorissen, A}, title = {Carbon and nitrogen cycles in European ecosystems respond differently to global warming.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {407}, number = {1}, pages = {692-697}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.10.001}, pmid = {18930514}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Europe ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Plant Development ; Soil/analysis/standards ; }, abstract = {The global climate is predicted to become significantly warmer over the next century. This will affect ecosystem processes and the functioning of semi natural and natural ecosystems in many parts of the world. However, as various ecosystem processes may be affected to a different extent, balances between different ecosystem processes as well as between different ecosystems may shift and lead to major unpredicted changes. In this study four European shrubland ecosystems along a north-south temperature gradient were experimentally warmed by a novel nighttime warming technique. Biogeochemical cycling of both carbon and nitrogen was affected at the colder sites with increased carbon uptake for plant growth as well as increased carbon loss through soil respiration. Carbon uptake by plant growth was more sensitive to warming than expected from the temperature response across the sites while carbon loss through soil respiration reacted to warming in agreement with the overall Q10 and response functions to temperature across the sites. Opposite to carbon, the nitrogen mineralization was relatively insensitive to the temperature increase and was mainly affected by changes in soil moisture. The results suggest that C and N cycles respond asymmetrically to warming, which may lead to progressive nitrogen limitation and thereby acclimation in plant production. This further suggests that in many temperate zones nitrogen deposition has to be accounted for, not only with respect to the impact on water quality through increased nitrogen leaching where N deposition is high, but also in predictions of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems under future climatic conditions. Finally the results indicate that on the short term the above-ground processes are more sensitive to temperature changes than the below ground processes.}, }
@article {pmid18929979, year = {2008}, author = {St Louis, ME and Hess, JJ}, title = {Climate change: impacts on and implications for global health.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {527-538}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.023}, pmid = {18929979}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {Animals ; Awareness ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Internationality ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {The most severe consequences of climate change will accrue to the poorest people in the poorest countries, despite their own negligible contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, global health efforts in those same countries have grown dramatically. However, the emerging scientific consensus about climate change has not yet had much influence on the routine practice and strategies of global health. We review here the anticipated types and global distribution of health impacts of climate change, discuss relevant aspects of current global interventions for health in low-income countries, and consider potential elements of a framework for appropriately and efficiently mainstreaming global climate change-mitigation and -adaptation strategies into the ongoing enterprise of global health. We propose a collaborative learning initiative involving four areas: (1) increased awareness among current global health practitioners of climate change and its potential impacts for the most disadvantaged, (2) strengthening of the evidence base, (3) incorporation now of climate change-mitigation and -adaptation concerns into design of ongoing global health programs, and (4) alignment of current global health program targets and methods with larger frameworks for climate change and sustainable development. The great vulnerability to climate change of populations reached by current global health efforts should prompt all concerned with global health to take a leading role in advocating for climate change mitigation in their own countries.}, }
@article {pmid18929978, year = {2008}, author = {Younger, M and Morrow-Almeida, HR and Vindigni, SM and Dannenberg, AL}, title = {The built environment, climate change, and health: opportunities for co-benefits.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {517-526}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.017}, pmid = {18929978}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Environment Design ; *Facility Design and Construction ; Forestry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Transportation ; }, abstract = {The earth's climate is changing, due largely to greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activity. These human-generated gases derive in part from aspects of the built environment such as transportation systems and infrastructure, building construction and operation, and land-use planning. Transportation, the largest end-use consumer of energy, affects human health directly through air pollution and subsequent respiratory effects, as well as indirectly through physical activity behavior. Buildings contribute to climate change, influence transportation, and affect health through the materials utilized, decisions about sites, electricity and water usage, and landscape surroundings. Land use, forestry, and agriculture also contribute to climate change and affect health by increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, shaping the infrastructures for both transportation and buildings, and affecting access to green spaces. Vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected with regard to transportation, buildings, and land use, and are most at risk for experiencing the effects of climate change. Working across sectors to incorporate a health promotion approach in the design and development of built environment components may mitigate climate change, promote adaptation, and improve public health.}, }
@article {pmid18929977, year = {2008}, author = {Keim, ME}, title = {Building human resilience: the role of public health preparedness and response as an adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {508-516}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.022}, pmid = {18929977}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {Cyclonic Storms ; *Disaster Planning ; Disasters ; Droughts ; Fires ; Floods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Landslides ; *Public Health ; *Resilience, Psychological ; Risk Management ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Global climate change will increase the probability of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, drought, wildfire, cyclones, and heavy precipitation that could cause floods and landslides. Such events create significant public health needs that can exceed local capacity to respond, resulting in excess morbidity or mortality and in the declaration of disasters. Human vulnerability to any disaster is a complex phenomenon with social, economic, health, and cultural dimensions. Vulnerability to natural disasters has two sides: the degree of exposure to dangerous hazards (susceptibility) and the capacity to cope with or recover from disaster consequences (resilience). Vulnerability reduction programs reduce susceptibility and increase resilience. Susceptibility to disasters is reduced largely by prevention and mitigation of emergencies. Emergency preparedness and response and recovery activities--including those that address climate change--increase disaster resilience. Because adaptation must occur at the community level, local public health agencies are uniquely placed to build human resilience to climate-related disasters. This article discusses the role of public health in reducing human vulnerability to climate change within the context of select examples for emergency preparedness and response.}, }
@article {pmid18929976, year = {2008}, author = {Ebi, KL and Semenza, JC}, title = {Community-based adaptation to the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {501-507}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.018}, pmid = {18929976}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {*Community Participation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Social Behavior ; }, abstract = {The effects of and responses to the health impacts of climate change will affect individuals, communities, and societies. Effectively preparing for and responding to current and projected climate change requires ongoing assessment and action, not a one-time assessment of risks and interventions. To promote resilience to climate change and other community stressors, a stepwise course of action is proposed for community-based adaptation that engages stakeholders in a proactive problem solving process to enhance social capital across local and national levels. In addition to grassroots actions undertaken at the community level, reducing vulnerability to current and projected climate change will require top-down interventions implemented by public health organizations and agencies.}, }
@article {pmid18929975, year = {2008}, author = {Maibach, EW and Roser-Renouf, C and Leiserowitz, A}, title = {Communication and marketing as climate change-intervention assets a public health perspective.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {488-500}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.016}, pmid = {18929975}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {*Communication ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Social Behavior ; *Social Control, Informal ; *Social Marketing ; }, abstract = {The understanding that global climate change represents a profound threat to the health and well-being of human and nonhuman species worldwide is growing. This article examines the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behavior in ways consistent with climate change prevention and adaptation objectives. Specifically, using a framework based on an ecologic model of public health, the paper examines: (1) the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behaviors of concern, including support for appropriate public policies; (2) potential target audiences for such programs; and (3) the attributes of effective climate change messages. Communication and marketing interventions appear to have considerable potential to promote important population behavior change objectives, but there is an urgent need for additional translational research to effectively harvest this potential to combat climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18929974, year = {2008}, author = {Semenza, JC and Hall, DE and Wilson, DJ and Bontempo, BD and Sailor, DJ and George, LA}, title = {Public perception of climate change voluntary mitigation and barriers to behavior change.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {479-487}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.020}, pmid = {18929974}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Awareness ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Multivariate Analysis ; Oregon ; *Public Opinion ; *Social Behavior ; Texas ; }, abstract = {Mitigating global climate change requires not only government action but also cooperation from consumers. Population-based, cross-sectional surveys were conducted among 1202 respondents in Portland OR and Houston TX between June and September 2007 regarding awareness, concern, and behavior change related to climate change. The data were subjected to both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Awareness about climate change is virtually universal (98% in Portland and 92% in Houston) with the vast majority reporting some level of concern (90% in Portland and 82% in Houston). A multivariate analysis revealed significant predictors of behavior change: individuals with heightened concern about climate change (p<0.001); respondents with higher level of education (p= 0.03); younger compared with older individuals (p<0.001); and Portlanders more likely to change behavior compared with Houstonians (p<0.001). Of those who changed behavior, 43% reported having reduced their energy usage at home, 39% had reduced gasoline consumption, and 26% engaged in other behaviors, largely recycling. Qualitative data indicate a number of cognitive, behavioral, and structural obstacles to voluntary mitigation. Although consumers are interested in global climate change-mitigation strategies and willing to act accordingly, considerable impediments remain. Government policy must eliminate economic, structural, and social barriers to change and advance accessible and economical alternatives. Individual-level mitigation can be a policy option under favorable contextual conditions, as these results indicate, but must be accompanied by mitigation efforts from industry, commerce, and government.}, }
@article {pmid18929973, year = {2008}, author = {Hess, JJ and Malilay, JN and Parkinson, AJ}, title = {Climate change: the importance of place.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {468-478}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.024}, pmid = {18929973}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Cities ; Communicable Diseases/transmission ; Desert Climate ; *Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; Seawater/chemistry ; United States ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Climate change-related risks are place-specific and path-dependent. Accordingly, location is an important determinant of hazardous exposure, and certain places will bear more risk than others. This article reviews the major environmental exposures associated with risky places in the U.S., including coastal regions, islands, the desert Southwest, vectorborne and zoonotic disease border regions, cities, and the U.S. Arctic (Alaska), with emphasis on exposures and vulnerable populations of concern. In addition to these hotspots, this study considers the ways in which the concept of place--the sense of human relationship with particular environments--will play a key role in motivating, developing, and deploying an effective public health response. In considering the importance of place, we highlight the concepts of community resilience and risk management, key aspects of a robust response to climate change in public health and other sectors.}, }
@article {pmid18929972, year = {2008}, author = {Kinney, PL}, title = {Climate change, air quality, and human health.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {459-467}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.025}, pmid = {18929972}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; Allergens/adverse effects ; Fires ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ozone/adverse effects ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Weather and climate play important roles in determining patterns of air quality over multiple scales in time and space, owing to the fact that emissions, transport, dilution, chemical transformation, and eventual deposition of air pollutants all can be influenced by meteorologic variables such as temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, and mixing height. There is growing recognition that development of optimal control strategies for key pollutants like ozone and fine particles now requires assessment of potential future climate conditions and their influence on the attainment of air quality objectives. In addition, other air contaminants of relevance to human health, including smoke from wildfires and airborne pollens and molds, may be influenced by climate change. In this study, the focus is on the ways in which health-relevant measures of air quality, including ozone, particulate matter, and aeroallergens, may be affected by climate variability and change. The small but growing literature focusing on climate impacts on air quality, how these influences may play out in future decades, and the implications for human health is reviewed. Based on the observed and anticipated impacts, adaptation strategies and research needs are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid18929971, year = {2008}, author = {Patz, JA and Vavrus, SJ and Uejio, CK and McLellan, SL}, title = {Climate change and waterborne disease risk in the Great Lakes region of the U.S.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {451-458}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.026}, pmid = {18929971}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; Drainage, Sanitary/standards ; Great Lakes Region/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Rain ; Water Supply/*standards ; }, abstract = {Extremes of the hydrologic cycle will accompany global warming, causing precipitation intensity to increase, particularly in middle and high latitudes. During the twentieth century, the frequency of major storms has already increased, and the total precipitation increase over this time period has primarily come from the greater number of heavy events. The Great Lakes region is projected to experience a rise these extreme precipitation events. For southern Wisconsin, the precipitation rate of the 10 wettest days was simulated using a suite of seven global climate models from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. For each ranking, the precipitation rate of these very heavy events increases in the future. Overall, the models project that extreme precipitation events will become 10% to 40% stronger in southern Wisconsin, resulting in greater potential for flooding, and for the waterborne diseases that often accompany high discharge into Lake Michigan. Using 6.4 cm (2.5 in) of daily precipitation as the threshold for initiating combined sewer overflow into Lake Michigan, the frequency of these events is expected to rise by 50% to 120% by the end of this century. The combination of future thermal and hydrologic changes may affect the usability of recreational beaches. Chicago beach closures are dependent on the magnitude of recent precipitation (within the past 24 hours), lake temperature, and lake stage. Projected increases in heavy rainfall, warmer lake waters, and lowered lake levels would all be expected to contribute to beach contamination in the future. The Great Lakes serve as a drinking water source for more than 40 million people. Ongoing studies and past events illustrate a strong connection between rain events and the amount of pollutants entering the Great Lakes. Extreme precipitation under global warming projections may overwhelm the combined sewer systems and lead to overflow events that can threaten both human health and recreation in the region.}, }
@article {pmid18929969, year = {2008}, author = {Luber, G and McGeehin, M}, title = {Climate change and extreme heat events.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {429-435}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.021}, pmid = {18929969}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {Communication ; Environment Design ; Extreme Heat/*adverse effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Behavior ; Health Planning ; Heat Stress Disorders/*etiology/mortality/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; *Public Health ; United States/epidemiology ; Urbanization ; }, abstract = {The association between climate change and the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events is now well established. General circulation models of climate change predict that heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, especially in the higher latitudes, affecting large metropolitan areas that are not well adapted to them. Exposure to extreme heat is already a significant public health problem and the primary cause of weather-related mortality in the U.S. This article reviews major epidemiologic risk factors associated with mortality from extreme heat exposure and discusses future drivers of heat-related mortality, including a warming climate, the urban heat island effect, and an aging population. In addition, it considers critical areas of an effective public health response including heat response plans, the use of remote sensing and GIS methodologies, and the importance of effective communications strategies.}, }
@article {pmid18929968, year = {2008}, author = {Lawrence, RS and Saundry, PD}, title = {Climate change, health sciences, and education.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {426-428}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.028}, pmid = {18929968}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {*Education, Professional ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Health/*education ; }, }
@article {pmid18929967, year = {2008}, author = {Neira, M and Bertollini, R and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Heymann, DL}, title = {The year 2008: a breakthrough year for health protection from climate change?.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {424-425}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.011}, pmid = {18929967}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Organizational Objectives ; Public Health/*trends ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid18929966, year = {2008}, author = {Bloomberg, MR and Aggarwala, RT}, title = {Think locally, act globally: how curbing global warming emissions can improve local public health.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {414-423}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.029}, pmid = {18929966}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {Accidents, Traffic/prevention &amp; control ; Air Pollution ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Economics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Internationality ; Obesity/prevention &amp; control ; *Public Health ; Urbanization ; Vehicle Emissions/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid18929965, year = {2008}, author = {Haines, A}, title = {Climate change and health: strengthening the evidence base for policy.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {411-413}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.003}, pmid = {18929965}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid18929964, year = {2008}, author = {Frumkin, H and McMichael, AJ}, title = {Climate change and public health: thinking, communicating, acting.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {403-410}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.019}, pmid = {18929964}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {Communication ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Planning ; Humans ; Leadership ; *Public Health ; Systems Theory ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid18929963, year = {2008}, author = {Frumkin, H and McMichael, AJ and Hess, JJ}, title = {Climate change and the health of the public.}, journal = {American journal of preventive medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {401-402}, doi = {10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.031}, pmid = {18929963}, issn = {1873-2607}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid18922548, year = {2008}, author = {Brander, K}, title = {Tackling the old familiar problems of pollution, habitat alteration and overfishing will help with adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {56}, number = {12}, pages = {1957-1958}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2008.08.024}, pmid = {18922548}, issn = {0025-326X}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; Water Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid18854363, year = {2008}, author = {Zarocostas, J}, title = {WHO agrees plan to speed up research on risk to human health from climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {337}, number = {}, pages = {a2081}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.a2081}, pmid = {18854363}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Biomedical Research ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health ; Risk Factors ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid18853818, year = {2008}, author = {Geyer, R}, title = {Parametric assessment of climate change impacts of automotive material substitution.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {42}, number = {18}, pages = {6973-6979}, doi = {10.1021/es800314w}, pmid = {18853818}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Aluminum ; *Automobiles ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Statistical ; Steel ; }, abstract = {Quantifying the net climate change impact of automotive material substitution is not a trivial task. It requires the assessment of the mass reduction potential of automotive materials, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their production and recycling, and their impact on GHG emissions from vehicle use. The model presented in this paper is based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and completely parameterized, i.e., its computational structure is separated from the required input data, which is not traditionally done in LCAs. The parameterization increases scientific rigor and transparency of the assessment methodology, facilitates sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the results, and also makes it possible to compare different studies and explain their disparities. The state of the art of the modeling methodology is reviewed and advanced. Assessment of the GHG emission impacts of material recycling through consequential system expansion shows that our understanding of this issue is still incomplete. This is a critical knowledge gap since a case study shows thatfor materials such as aluminum, the GHG emission impacts of material production and recycling are both of the same size as the use phase savings from vehicle mass reduction.}, }
@article {pmid18849475, year = {2008}, author = {Møller, AP and Rubolini, D and Lehikoinen, E}, title = {Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {105}, number = {42}, pages = {16195-16200}, pmid = {18849475}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Recent rapid climatic changes are associated with dramatic changes in phenology of plants and animals, with optimal timing of reproduction advancing considerably in the northern hemisphere. However, some species may not have advanced their timing of breeding sufficiently to continue reproducing optimally relative to the occurrence of peak food availability, thus becoming mismatched compared with their food sources. The degree of mismatch may differ among species, and species with greater mismatch may be characterized by declining populations. Here we relate changes in spring migration timing by 100 European bird species since 1960, considered as an index of the phenological response of bird species to recent climate change, to their population trends. Species that declined in the period 1990-2000 did not advance their spring migration, whereas those with stable or increasing populations advanced their migration considerably. On the other hand, population trends during 1970-1990 were predicted by breeding habitat type, northernmost breeding latitude, and winter range (with species of agricultural habitat, breeding at northern latitudes, and wintering in Africa showing an unfavorable conservation status), but not by change in migration timing. The association between population trend in 1990-2000 and change in migration phenology was not confounded by any of the previously identified predictors of population trends in birds, or by similarity in phenotype among taxa due to common descent. Our findings imply that ecological factors affecting population trends can change over time and suggest that ongoing climatic changes will increasingly threaten vulnerable migratory bird species, augmenting their extinction risk.}, }
@article {pmid18847079, year = {2008}, author = {Friedman, TL}, title = {Green pay dirt. Why strategies to tackle climate change will boost the economy.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {299}, number = {4}, pages = {25-26}, pmid = {18847079}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid18847077, year = {2008}, author = {Juncosa, B}, title = {Suffocating seas. Climate change may be sparking new and bigger "dead zones".}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {299}, number = {4}, pages = {20, 22}, pmid = {18847077}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Crustacea/*physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Fertilizers/adverse effects ; Fishes/*physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; Oregon ; Oxygen/*analysis ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid18845755, year = {2008}, author = {Moritz, C and Patton, JL and Conroy, CJ and Parra, JL and White, GC and Beissinger, SR}, title = {Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {322}, number = {5899}, pages = {261-264}, doi = {10.1126/science.1163428}, pmid = {18845755}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Altitude ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; California ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Mammals ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {We provide a century-scale view of small-mammal responses to global warming, without confounding effects of land-use change, by repeating Grinnell's early-20th century survey across a 3000-meter-elevation gradient that spans Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Using occupancy modeling to control for variation in detectability, we show substantial (approximately 500 meters on average) upward changes in elevational limits for half of 28 species monitored, consistent with the observed approximately 3 degrees C increase in minimum temperatures. Formerly low-elevation species expanded their ranges and high-elevation species contracted theirs, leading to changed community composition at mid- and high elevations. Elevational replacement among congeners changed because species' responses were idiosyncratic. Though some high-elevation species are threatened, protection of elevation gradients allows other species to respond via migration.}, }
@article {pmid18845754, year = {2008}, author = {Colwell, RK and Brehm, G and Cardelús, CL and Gilman, AC and Longino, JT}, title = {Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {322}, number = {5899}, pages = {258-261}, doi = {10.1126/science.1162547}, pmid = {18845754}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Altitude ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; Ants ; *Biodiversity ; Costa Rica ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Insecta ; Moths ; *Plants ; Population Dynamics ; Rubiaceae ; Temperature ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Many studies suggest that global warming is driving species ranges poleward and toward higher elevations at temperate latitudes, but evidence for range shifts is scarce for the tropics, where the shallow latitudinal temperature gradient makes upslope shifts more likely than poleward shifts. Based on new data for plants and insects on an elevational transect in Costa Rica, we assess the potential for lowland biotic attrition, range-shift gaps, and mountaintop extinctions under projected warming. We conclude that tropical lowland biotas may face a level of net lowland biotic attrition without parallel at higher latitudes (where range shifts may be compensated for by species from lower latitudes) and that a high proportion of tropical species soon faces gaps between current and projected elevational ranges.}, }
@article {pmid18845723, year = {2008}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Impacts research seen as next climate frontier.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {322}, number = {5899}, pages = {182-183}, doi = {10.1126/science.322.5899.182}, pmid = {18845723}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Budgets ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; Financing, Government ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Politics ; *Research/economics ; Research Support as Topic ; United States ; *United States Government Agencies/economics/organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid18844483, year = {2008}, author = {Tomanek, L}, title = {The importance of physiological limits in determining biogeographical range shifts due to global climate change: the heat-shock response.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {81}, number = {6}, pages = {709-717}, doi = {10.1086/590163}, pmid = {18844483}, issn = {1537-5293}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; Demography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Heat-Shock Proteins/metabolism ; Heat-Shock Response/*physiology ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Invertebrates/physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Physiological processes that set an organism's thermal limits are in part determining recent shifts in biogeographic distribution ranges due to global climate change. Several characteristics of the heat-shock response (HSR), such as the onset, maximal, and upper limit of heat-shock protein (Hsp) synthesis, contribute to setting the acute upper thermal limits of most organisms. Aquatic animals from stable, moderately variable, or highly variable thermal environments differ in their HSR. Some animals living in extremely stable thermal environments lack the response altogether. In contrast, rocky intertidal animals that experience highly variable thermal conditions start synthesizing Hsps, that is, the onset of synthesis, below the highest temperatures that they experience. Thus, these organisms experience thermal conditions in their environment that are close to the upper thermal limits in which they can defend themselves against cellular thermal insults by employing the HSR. Subtidal animals are characterized by moderately variable thermal environments, and their cells start synthesizing Hsps above the highest temperatures that they experience. The upper thermal limits against which they can defend themselves are thus much higher than the highest body temperatures they currently experience. Furthermore, the ability to acclimate to changing thermal conditions seems greatest among animals from moderately variable environments and limited in animals from stable and highly variable environments. Thus, these findings suggest that organisms with the narrowest (stenothermal) and the widest (highly eurythermal) temperature tolerance ranges live closest to their thermal limits and have a limited ability to acclimate, suggesting that they will be most affected by global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18843544, year = {2009}, author = {Pathak, H and Jain, N and Bhatia, A and Mohanty, S and Gupta, N}, title = {Global warming mitigation potential of biogas plants in India.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {157}, number = {1-4}, pages = {407-418}, pmid = {18843544}, issn = {1573-2959}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis/economics ; Air Pollution/analysis/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon/*analysis/economics ; Environmental Restoration and Remediation/economics/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; India ; Manure/analysis ; Power Plants/*economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Biogas technology, besides supplying energy and manure, provides an excellent opportunity for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and reducing global warming through substituting firewood for cooking, kerosene for lighting and cooking and chemical fertilizers. A study was undertaken to calculate (1) global warming mitigation potential (GMP) and thereby earning carbon credit of a family size biogas plant in India, (2) GMP of the existing and target biogas plants in the country and (3) atmospheric pollution reduction by a family size biogas plant. The GMP of a family size biogas plant was 9.7 t CO(2) equiv. year(- 1) and with the current price of US $10 t(- 1) CO(2) equiv., carbon credit of US $97 year(- 1) could be earned from such reduction in greenhouse gas emission under the clean development mechanism (CDM). A family size biogas plant substitutes 316 L of kerosene, 5,535 kg firewood and 4,400 kg cattle dung cake as fuels which will reduce emissions of NOx, SO(2), CO and volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere by 16.4, 11.3, 987.0 and 69.7 kg year(- 1), respectively. Presently 3.83 million biogas plants are operating in the country, which can mitigate global warming by 37 Mt CO(2) equiv. year(- 1). Government of India has a target of installing 12.34 million biogas plants by 2010. This target has a GMP of 120 Mt CO(2) equiv. year(- 1) and US $1,197 million as carbon credit under the CDM. However, if all the collectible cattle dung (225 Mt) produced in the country is used, 51.2 million family size biogas plants can be supported which will have a GMP of 496 Mt of CO(2) equiv. year(- 1) and can earn US $4,968 million as carbon credit. The reduction in global warming should encourage policy makers to promote biogas technology to combat climate change and integration of carbon revenues will help the farmers to develop biogas as a profitable activity.}, }
@article {pmid18843350, year = {2008}, author = {Houghton, J}, title = {Meetings that changed the world: Madrid 1995: Diagnosing climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {455}, number = {7214}, pages = {737-738}, doi = {10.1038/455737a}, pmid = {18843350}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Congresses as Topic/*history ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Human Activities ; International Cooperation ; Spain ; }, }
@article {pmid18839762, year = {2008}, author = {Ibáñez, I and Clark, JS and Dietze, MC}, title = {Evaluating the sources of potential migrant species: implications under climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {18}, number = {7}, pages = {1664-1678}, doi = {10.1890/07-1594.1}, pmid = {18839762}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Demography ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; Seedlings ; Southeastern United States ; Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {As changes in climate become more apparent, ecologists face the challenge of predicting species responses to the new conditions. Most forecasts are based on climate envelopes (CE), correlative approaches that project future distributions on the basis of the current climate often assuming some dispersal lag. One major caveat with this approach is that it ignores the complexity of factors other than climate that contribute to a species' distributional range. To overcome this limitation and to complement predictions based on CE modeling we carried out a transplant experiment of resident and potential-migrant species. Tree seedlings of 18 species were planted side by side from 2001 to 2004 at several locations in the Southern Appalachians and in the North Carolina Piedmont (U.S.A.). Growing seedlings under a large array of environmental conditions, including those forecasted for the next decades, allowed us to model seedling survival as a function of variables characteristic of each site, and from here we were able to make predictions on future seedling recruitment. In general, almost all species showed decreased survival in plots and years with lower soil moisture, including both residents and potential migrants, and in both locations, the Southern Appalachians and the Piedmont. The detrimental effects that anticipated arid conditions could have on seedling recruitment contradict some of the projections made by CE modeling, where many of the species tested are expected to increase in abundance or to expand their ranges. These results point out the importance of evaluating the potential sources of migrant species when modeling vegetation response to climate change, and considering that species adapted to the new climate and the local conditions may not be available in the surrounding regions.}, }
@article {pmid18833265, year = {2008}, author = {Pekar, SF}, title = {Climate change: when did the icehouse cometh?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {455}, number = {7213}, pages = {602-603}, doi = {10.1038/455602a}, pmid = {18833265}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Cold Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; History, 21st Century ; History, Ancient ; *Ice Cover ; }, }
@article {pmid18832620, year = {2008}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Glaciology. Winds, not just global warming, eating away at the ice sheets.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {322}, number = {5898}, pages = {33}, doi = {10.1126/science.322.5898.33}, pmid = {18832620}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18831689, year = {2008}, author = {Schwanz, LE and Janzen, FJ}, title = {Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination: can individual plasticity in nesting phenology prevent extreme sex ratios?.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {81}, number = {6}, pages = {826-834}, doi = {10.1086/590220}, pmid = {18831689}, issn = {1537-5293}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; Nesting Behavior ; Seasons ; *Sex Determination Processes ; *Sex Ratio ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Under temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), temperatures experienced by embryos during development determine the sex of the offspring. Consequently, populations of organisms with TSD have the potential to be strongly impacted by climatic warming that could bias offspring sex ratio, a fundamental demographic parameter involved in population dynamics. Moreover, many taxa with TSD are imperiled, so research on this phenomenon, particularly long-term field study, has assumed great urgency. Recently, turtles with TSD have joined the diverse list of taxa that have demonstrated population-level changes in breeding phenology in response to recent climate change. This raises the possibility that any adverse impacts of climate change on populations may be alleviated by individual plasticity in nesting phenology. Here, we examine data from a long-term study on a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) to determine whether changes in phenology are due to individual plasticity and whether individual plasticity in the timing of nesting has the capacity to offset the sex ratio effects of a rise in climatic temperature. We find that individual females show plasticity in the date of first nesting each year, and that this plasticity depends on the climate from the previous winter. First nesting date is not repeatable within individuals, suggesting that it would not respond to selection. Sex ratios of hatchlings within a nest declined nonsignificantly over the nesting season. However, small increases in summer temperature had a much stronger effect on nest sex ratios than did laying nests earlier in the season. For this and other reasons, it seems unlikely that individual plasticity in the timing of nesting will offset the effects of climate change on sex ratios in this population, and we hypothesize that this conclusion applies to other populations with TSD.}, }
@article {pmid18830740, year = {2009}, author = {Johnson, TE and Weaver, CP}, title = {A framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {43}, number = {1}, pages = {118-134}, pmid = {18830740}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Ecology/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Maryland ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pennsylvania ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Risk Management/*methods ; *Rivers ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; }, abstract = {In this article we present a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems to support management decision-making. The framework addresses three issues complicating assessments of climate change impacts--linkages across spatial scales, linkages across temporal scales, and linkages across scientific and management disciplines. A major theme underlying the framework is that, due to current limitations in modeling capabilities, assessing and responding to climate change should be approached from the perspective of risk assessment and management rather than as a prediction problem. The framework is based generally on ecological risk assessment and similar approaches. A second theme underlying the framework is the need for close collaboration among climate scientists, scientists interested in assessing impacts, and resource managers and decision makers. A case study illustrating an application of the framework is also presented that provides a specific, practical example of how the framework was used to assess the impacts of climate change on water quality in a mid-Atlantic, U.S., watershed.}, }
@article {pmid18828337, year = {2008}, author = {Daga, S and Ghosh, S}, title = {Protecting health from climate change--a challenging task.}, journal = {Journal of the Indian Medical Association}, volume = {106}, number = {4}, pages = {213, 215}, pmid = {18828337}, issn = {0019-5847}, mesh = {*Climate ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Promotion ; Health Status ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; *Social Marketing ; }, }
@article {pmid18826371, year = {2008}, author = {Zani, PA}, title = {Climate change trade-offs in the side-blotched lizard (Uta stansburiana): effects of growing-season length and mild temperatures on winter survival.}, journal = {Physiological and biochemical zoology : PBZ}, volume = {81}, number = {6}, pages = {797-809}, doi = {10.1086/588305}, pmid = {18826371}, issn = {1537-5293}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Body Size/*physiology ; Female ; Greenhouse Effect ; Lizards/*physiology ; Longevity ; Male ; Reproduction/physiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {An expanding body of literature has demonstrated that global climate change continues to adversely affect many populations, species, and ecosystems. However, life-history theory also predicts possible benefits from longer growing seasons and less severe winters, particularly for ectotherms. To test the idea that climate change will have benefits as well as costs, I studied the impacts of growing-season length on growth and overwintering conditions on survival time using side-blotched lizards (Uta stansburiana). Experiments in replicate field enclosures revealed that fall growing-season length has a direct effect on overwintering body size. Laboratory experiments revealed that both size and overwintering temperature have direct effects on winter survival time. Larger lizards are more likely to survive longer regardless of winter temperature. Furthermore, animals in colder (but still mild) winter microenvironments are more likely to survive longer than those in warmer winter environments. These results indicate that warmer winters caused by global climate change have the potential to negatively affect ectotherm populations. However, longer growing seasons may offset losses by allowing additional growth and energy storage. Thus, environmental alterations associated with climate change may be simultaneously beneficial and detrimental, and the long-term persistence of certain organisms may depend on the relative strength of their effects.}, }
@article {pmid18824303, year = {2008}, author = {van Dijk, J and David, GP and Baird, G and Morgan, ER}, title = {Back to the future: developing hypotheses on the effects of climate change on ovine parasitic gastroenteritis from historical data.}, journal = {Veterinary parasitology}, volume = {158}, number = {1-2}, pages = {73-84}, doi = {10.1016/j.vetpar.2008.08.006}, pmid = {18824303}, issn = {0304-4017}, support = {//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Gastroenteritis/epidemiology/parasitology/*veterinary ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Haemonchiasis/parasitology/veterinary ; Haemonchus/growth &amp; development ; Incidence ; Intestinal Diseases, Parasitic/epidemiology/parasitology/*veterinary ; Life Cycle Stages ; Nematoda/growth &amp; development ; Nematode Infections/parasitology/veterinary ; Scotland/epidemiology ; Seasons ; Sheep ; Sheep Diseases/epidemiology/*parasitology ; Species Specificity ; Statistics, Nonparametric ; Wales/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Although the influence of temperature and moisture on the free-living stages of gastrointestinal nematodes has been described in detail, and evidence for global climate change is mounting, serious attempts to relate altered incidence or seasonal patterns of disease to climate change are lacking. In Great Britain, veterinary surveillance laboratory diagnoses of ovine parasitic gastroenteritis (PGE) have been categorised in species groups and recorded since 1975. Here we present a detailed analysis of these historical data. Over the past 5-10 years, highly significant increases in the overall rate of diagnosis of PGE were observed for all species categories. After identifying and analysing possible sources of bias, the effect of climate change on parasite epidemiology proved the most likely explanation for the observed patterns, although other hypotheses could not be refuted. Seasonal rates of diagnosis suggest that, in line with increases in temperature, fewer larvae of Teladorsagia and Trichostrongylus species survive the winter and spring at pasture, while the windows of transmission of these species, and of Haemonchus contortus, have extended into the autumn. For all species categories significant differences in rates of diagnosis, and in the seasonality of disease, were identified between regions. Nematodirosis showed a pronounced peak in spring and early summer in Scotland while in the Southwest, where fewer diagnoses were made, it also appeared regularly at other times of year. The data presented serve as a baseline against which future changes can be measured.}, }
@article {pmid18819680, year = {2008}, author = {Pinto, J and Bonacic, C and Hamilton-West, C and Romero, J and Lubroth, J}, title = {Climate change and animal diseases in South America.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {599-613}, pmid = {18819680}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/*veterinary ; Disasters ; Disease Vectors ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Mandatory Reporting ; *Risk Assessment ; Sentinel Surveillance/veterinary ; South America/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate strongly affects agriculture and livestock production and influences animal diseases, vectors and pathogens, and their habitat. Global warming trends predicted in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) report for South America are likely to change the temporal and geographical distribution of infectious diseases, including those that are vector-borne such as bluetongue, West Nile fever, vesicular stomatitis and New World screwworm. Changes in distribution will be partially modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation events, which will become more frequent and lead to a greater frequency of droughts and floods. Active disease surveillance for animal diseases in South America, particularly for vector-borne diseases, is very poor. Disease reporting is often lacking, which affects knowledge of disease distribution and impact, and preparedness for early response. Improved reporting for animal diseases that may be affected by climate change is needed for better prevention and intervention measures in susceptible livestock, wildlife and vectors in South America. This requires contributions from multidisciplinary experts, including meteorologists, epidemiologists, biologists and ecologists, and from local communities.}, }
@article {pmid18819679, year = {2008}, author = {Forman, S and Hungerford, N and Yamakawa, M and Yanase, T and Tsai, HJ and Joo, YS and Yang, DK and Nha, JJ}, title = {Climate change impacts and risks for animal health in Asia.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {581-597}, pmid = {18819679}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Animal Welfare ; Animals ; Asia/epidemiology ; *Climate ; Communicable Disease Control/*methods ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Disease Reservoirs/veterinary ; Disease Vectors ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; Sentinel Surveillance/veterinary ; Stress, Physiological/veterinary ; Zoonoses ; }, abstract = {The threat of climate change and global warming is now recognised worldwide and some alarming manifestations of change have occurred. The Asian continent, because of its size and diversity, may be affected significantly by the consequences of climate change, and its new status as a 'hub' of livestock production gives it an important role in mitigating possible impacts of climate variability on animal health. Animal health may be affected by climate change in four ways: heat-related diseases and stress, extreme weather events, adaptation of animal production systems to new environments, and emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases, especially vector-borne diseases critically dependent on environmental and climatic conditions. To face these new menaces, the need for strong and efficient Veterinary Services is irrefutable, combined with good coordination of public health services, as many emerging human diseases are zoonoses. Asian developing countries have acute weaknesses in their Veterinary Services, which jeopardises the global surveillance network essential for early detection of hazards. Indeed, international cooperation within and outside Asia is vital to mitigating the risks of climate change to animal health in Asia.}, }
@article {pmid18819678, year = {2008}, author = {Black, PF and Murray, JG and Nunn, MJ}, title = {Managing animal disease risk in Australia: the impact of climate change.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {563-580}, pmid = {18819678}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Animal Husbandry/*standards ; Animal Welfare ; Animals ; Animals, Domestic ; Australia/epidemiology ; *Commerce ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; Population Surveillance ; Quarantine/veterinary ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Management ; }, abstract = {Climate change is one of a number of factors that are likely to affect the future of Australian agriculture, animal production and animal health, particularly when associated with other factors such as environmental degradation, intensive animal production, an increasing human population, and expanding urbanisation. Notwithstanding the harshness and variability of Australia's climate, significant livestock industries have been developed, with the majority of products from such industries exported throughout the world. A critical factor in achieving market access has been an enviable animal health status, which is underpinned by first class animal health services with a strong legislative basis, well-trained staff, engagement of industry, effective surveillance, good scientific and laboratory support, effective emergency management procedures, a sound quarantine system, and strong political support. However, enhancements still need to be made to Australia's animal health system, for example: re-defining the science-policy interface; refining foresight, risk analysis, surveillance, diagnostics, and emergency management; improving approaches to education, training, technology transfer, communications and awareness; and engaging more with the international community in areas such as capacity building, the development of veterinary services, and disease response systems. A 'one health' approach will be adopted to bring together skills in the fields of animal, public, wildlife and environmental health. These initiatives, if managed correctly, will minimise the risks resulting from global warming and other factors predisposing to disease.}, }
@article {pmid18819677, year = {2008}, author = {Van den Bossche, P and Coetzer, JA}, title = {Climate change and animal health in Africa.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {551-562}, pmid = {18819677}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Animal Diseases/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Animals ; Animals, Domestic ; Animals, Wild ; Climate ; Communicable Disease Control/*methods ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission/*veterinary ; Disease Vectors ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Sentinel Surveillance/veterinary ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have direct and indirect impacts on African livestock. Direct impacts include increased ambient temperature, floods and droughts. Indirect impacts are the result of reduced availability of water and forage and changes in the environment that promote the spread of contagious diseases through increased contact between animals, or increased survival or availability of the agent or its intermediate host. The distribution and prevalence of vector-borne diseases may be the most significant effect of climate change. The potential vulnerability of the livestock industry will depend on its ability to adapt to such changes. Enhancing this adaptive capacity presents a practical way of coping with climate change. Adaptive capacity could be increased by enabling the African livestock owner to cope better with animal health problems through appropriate policy measures and institutional support. Developing an effective and sustainable animal health service, associated surveillance and emergency preparedness systems and sustainable disease control and prevention programmes is perhaps the most important strategy for dealing with climate change in many African countries.}, }
@article {pmid18819675, year = {2008}, author = {Hoberg, EP and Polley, L and Jenkins, EJ and Kutz, SJ}, title = {Pathogens of domestic and free-ranging ungulates: global climate change in temperate to boreal latitudes across North America.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {511-528}, pmid = {18819675}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Domestic ; Animals, Wild ; Artiodactyla ; Biodiversity ; Communicable Disease Control/*methods ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Host-Pathogen Interactions/*physiology ; Perissodactyla ; Predictive Value of Tests ; *Risk Assessment ; Sentinel Surveillance/veterinary ; }, abstract = {In North America broad-based research networks explore the interaction of vertebrates, their characteristic arrays of pathogens and emergent disease. A diversity of programmes address the impact of environmental change on animal health, zoonoses, and human health, but as yet no comprehensive framework or strategy has emerged to develop and implement policy and planning. In a regime of climate change and ecological perturbation, the need to document and understand the health, agricultural, societal and economic impact of pathogens and emerging infectious disease is urgent. An integrated and proactive planning process linking national and international resources can lead to informed predictions aboutthe impact of environmental change and can identify pathways for potential management and mitigation. An effective and comprehensive programme will have components for establishing priorities, developing primary data for faunal structure and biodiversity, a capacity for monitoring and surveillance (including scanning and targeted activities), and linkage to historical and contemporary baselines (against which to assess change) established through archival biological collections. Field and laboratory studies are also necessary to determine developmental thresholds, tolerances and tipping points for many pathogens to establish a context for recognising current constraints and future perturbation, and to explore factors that promote emergence for a variety of pathogens, vectors and pest species. Predictive modelling and risk assessment utilising a range of scenarios for climate change is a final step in this multidisciplinary process.}, }
@article {pmid18819674, year = {2008}, author = {Le Conte, Y and Navajas, M}, title = {Climate change: impact on honey bee populations and diseases.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {485-97, 499-510}, pmid = {18819674}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Bees/genetics/*physiology ; *Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Genetic Variation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Pollination/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The European honey bee, Apis mellifera, is the most economically valuable pollinator of agricultural crops worldwide. Bees are also crucial in maintaining biodiversity by pollinating numerous plant species whose fertilisation requires an obligatory pollinator. Apis mellifera is a species that has shown great adaptive potential, as it is found almost everywhere in the world and in highly diverse climates. In a context of climate change, the variability of the honey bee's life-history traits as regards temperature and the environment shows that the species possesses such plasticity and genetic variability that this could give rise to the selection of development cycles suited to new environmental conditions. Although we do not know the precise impact of potential environmental changes on honey bees as a result of climate change, there is a large body of data at our disposal indicating that environmental changes have a direct influence on honey bee development. In this article, the authors examine the potential impact of climate change on honey bee behaviour, physiology and distribution, as well as on the evolution of the honey bee's interaction with diseases. Conservation measures will be needed to prevent the loss of this rich genetic diversity of honey bees and to preserve ecotypes that are so valuable for world biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid18819673, year = {2008}, author = {Marcogliese, DJ}, title = {The impact of climate change on the parasites and infectious diseases of aquatic animals.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {467-484}, pmid = {18819673}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Fish Diseases/*epidemiology/*parasitology/transmission ; Fishes ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Host-Parasite Interactions/*physiology ; Parasites/physiology ; Periodicity ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Virulence ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to have important effects on parasitism and disease in freshwater and marine ecosystems, with consequences for human health and socio-economics. The distribution of parasites and pathogens will be directly affected by global warming, but also indirectly, through effects on host range and abundance. To date, numerous disease outbreaks, especially in marine organisms, have been associated with climatic events such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In general, transmission rates of parasites and pathogens are expected to increase with increasing temperature. Evidence suggests that the virulence of some pathogens and parasites may also increase with global warming. The effects of climate change on parasites and pathogens will be superimposed onto the effects of other anthropogenic stressors in ecosystems, such as contaminants, habitat loss and species introductions. This combination of stressors may work cumulatively or synergistically to exacerbate negative effects on host organisms and populations. Climatic effects on parasites and diseases of key species may cascade through food webs, with consequences for entire ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid18819672, year = {2008}, author = {Gilbert, M and Slingenbergh, J and Xiao, X}, title = {Climate change and avian influenza.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {459-466}, pmid = {18819672}, issn = {0253-1933}, support = {R01 AI101028/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01 TW007869/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; R01 TW007869-03/TW/FIC NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Animal Migration ; Animals ; Animals, Domestic ; Animals, Wild ; Birds ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Influenza A virus/*physiology ; Influenza in Birds/*epidemiology/transmission/*virology ; }, abstract = {This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in water bird populations will continue with endless adaptation and evolution. In domestic poultry, too little is known about the direct effect of environmental factors on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission and persistence to allow inference about the possible effect of climate change. However, possible indirect links through changes in the distribution of duck-crop farming are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid18819671, year = {2008}, author = {Mas-Coma, S and Valero, MA and Bargues, MD}, title = {Effects of climate change on animal and zoonotic helminthiases.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {443-457}, pmid = {18819671}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Domestic ; Animals, Wild ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Helminthiasis, Animal/*epidemiology/*parasitology ; *Host-Parasite Interactions ; Prevalence ; Zoonoses ; }, abstract = {Current knowledge of animal and zoonotic helminthiases in which effects of climate change have been detected is reviewed. Climate variables are able to affect the prevalence, intensity and geographical distribution of helminths, directly influencing free-living larval stages and indirectly influencing mainly invertebrate, but also vertebrate, hosts. The impact of climate change appears to be more pronounced in trematodes, and is mainly shown by increased cercarial production and emergence associated with global warming. Fascioliasis, schistosomiasis (S. japonicum) and cercarial dermatitis caused by avian schistosomes have been the focus of study. Alveolar echinococcosis is currently the only cestode disease that climate change has been found to influence. Nematodiases, including heterakiasis, different trichostrongyliases and protostrongyliases, ancylostomiases and dirofilariases, are the helminth diseases most intensively analysed with regard to climate change. It may be concluded that helminth diseases should be listed among the infectious diseases with which special care should be taken because of climate change in the future, especially in temperate and colder northern latitudes and in areas of high altitude.}, }
@article {pmid18819669, year = {2008}, author = {Martin, V and Chevalier, V and Ceccato, P and Anyamba, A and De Simone, L and Lubroth, J and de La Rocque, S and Domenech, J}, title = {The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley fever.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {413-426}, pmid = {18819669}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Animals ; Ceratopogonidae/growth &amp; development/virology ; Climate ; Demography ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control/*veterinary ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention &amp; control/*veterinary ; Europe/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development/virology ; *Rain ; *Rift Valley Fever/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/veterinary ; Zoonoses ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to change the frequency of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and hurricanes, and may destabilise and weaken the ecosystem services upon which human society depends. Climate change is also expected to affect animal, human and plant health via indirect pathways: it is likely that the geography of infectious diseases and pests will be altered, including the distribution of vector-borne diseases, such as Rift Valley fever, yellow fever, malaria and dengue, which are highly sensitive to climatic conditions. Extreme weather events might then create the necessary conditions for Rift Valley fever to expand its geographical range northwards and cross the Mediterranean and Arabian seas, with an unexpected impact on the animal and human health of newly affected countries. Strengthening global, regional and national early warning systems is crucial, as are co-ordinated research programmes and subsequent prevention and intervention measures.}, }
@article {pmid18819668, year = {2008}, author = {Ready, PD}, title = {Leishmaniasis emergence and climate change.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {399-412}, pmid = {18819668}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/transmission/veterinary ; Disease Reservoirs/veterinary ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development/*parasitology ; Leishmaniasis/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission/*veterinary ; Periodicity ; Psychodidae/growth &amp; development/*parasitology ; Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; Seasons ; Zoonoses ; }, abstract = {Spatio-temporal modelling of the distributions of the leishmaniases and their sandfly vectors is reviewed in relation to climate change. Many leishmaniases are rural zoonoses, and so there is a foundation of descriptive ecology and qualitative risk assessment. Dogs are widespread reservoir hosts of veterinary importance. Recent statistical modelling has not always produced novel general conclusions, exemplifying the difficulty of applying models outside the original geographical region. Case studies are given for transmission cycles involving both cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Old World and the Americas. An important challenge is to integrate statistical spatial models based mainly on climate with more explanatory biological models. Ecological niche models pose difficulties because of the number of assumptions. A positive association has been reported between the El Niño cycle and the annual incidence of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil, but more basic research is needed before tackling other climate-change scenarios, including leishmaniasis emergence in northern Europe.}, }
@article {pmid18819667, year = {2008}, author = {Reiter, P}, title = {Climate change and mosquito-borne disease: knowing the horse before hitching the cart.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {383-398}, pmid = {18819667}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Culicidae/*growth &amp; development/microbiology/parasitology/virology ; Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Encephalitis, Arbovirus/*epidemiology/transmission/veterinary ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*growth &amp; development/microbiology/parasitology/virology ; Malaria/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Speculations on the potential impacts of climate change on human health often focus on the mosquito-borne diseases but ignore the complex interplay of the multitude of factors that are generally dominant in the dynamics of their transmission. A holistic view of this complexity - particularly the ecology and behaviour of the host and the ecology and behaviour of the vector - is the only valid starting point for assessing the significance of climate in the prevalence and incidence of these diseases.}, }
@article {pmid18819666, year = {2008}, author = {Randolph, SE}, title = {Dynamics of tick-borne disease systems: minor role of recent climate change.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {367-381}, pmid = {18819666}, issn = {0253-1933}, support = {//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/microbiology/parasitology/virology ; *Climate ; Demography ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Population Growth ; Tick Control/*methods ; Tick-Borne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Ticks/*microbiology/*parasitology/virology ; }, abstract = {Tick-borne disease systems are very sensitive to climate through the impact of temperature and moisture stress on rates of the demographic processes of ticks. There is no a priori reason, however, to expect tick abundance or seasonal activity patterns to respond to climate change in ways that inevitably increase the risk of infection by the transmitted pathogens. Changing host availability may be more important than climate in determining tick abundance. The credibility of any (inherently untestable) predictions of future system-specific changes will be strengthened if based on satisfactory explanations of the past. Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Europe is presented as a case study: observed patterns of climate change are too similar within and between countries to provide the sole explanation for the extreme spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the marked upsurges in TBE incidence over the past two decades. Instead, a nexus of interacting factors affecting both the risk of infection and exposure of humans to that risk, and each differing in force in space and time, is a more powerful model. Many of these factors are driven by socio-economic changes, and include climate, land cover, wildlife, agricultural practices, industrial activities, (un)employment and income. The same principle may apply to the periodic epidemics of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever.}, }
@article {pmid18819664, year = {2008}, author = {de La Rocque, S and Rioux, JA and Slingenbergh, J}, title = {Climate change: effects on animal disease systems and implications for surveillance and control.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {339-354}, pmid = {18819664}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission/*veterinary ; Disease Reservoirs/veterinary ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/*veterinary ; Disease Vectors ; *Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; Population Surveillance ; Seasons ; Sentinel Surveillance/veterinary ; }, abstract = {Climate driven and other changes in landscape structure and texture, plus more general factors, may create favourable ecological niches for emerging diseases. Abiotic factors impact on vectors, reservoirs and pathogen bionomics and their ability to establish in new ecosystems. Changes in climatic patterns and in seasonal conditions may affect disease behaviour in terms of spread pattern, diffusion range, amplification and persistence in novel habitats. Pathogen invasion may result in the emergence of novel disease complexes, presenting major challenges for the sustainability of future animal agriculture at the global level. In this paper, some of the ecological mechanisms underlying the impact of climatic change on disease transmission and disease spread are further described. Potential effects of different climatic variables on pathogens and host population dynamics and distribution are complex to assess, and different approaches are used to describe the underlying epidemiological processes and the availability of ecological niches for pathogens and vectors. The invasion process can disrupt the long-term co-evolution of species. Pathogens adhering to an r-type strategy (e.g. RNA viruses) may be more inclined to encroach on a novel niche resulting from climate change. However, even when linkage between disease dynamics and climate change are relatively strong, there are other factors changing disease behaviour, and these should be accounted for as well. Overall vulnerability of a given ecosystem is a key variable in this regard. The impact of climate-driven changes varies in different parts of the world and in the different agro-climatic zones. Perhaps priority should go to those geographical areas where the integrity of the ecosystem is most severely affected and the adaptability, in terms of robustness and sustainability of response, relatively low.}, }
@article {pmid18819663, year = {2008}, author = {Lovejoy, T}, title = {Climate change and biodiversity.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {331-338}, pmid = {18819663}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animal Diseases/*epidemiology ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {There is already widespread change in the natural calendars (phenology) of plants and animals, as well as change in some species distributions. Now threshold change (sudden, fundamental change) in ecosystems is beginning to be observed in nature. At minimum, the natural world will experience an equal amount of warming to that which has already taken place. This all suggests a future with nature and ecosystems very much in flux with profound implications for epidemiology.}, }
@article {pmid18819660, year = {2008}, author = {de la Rocque, S}, title = {Climate change: impact on the epidemiology and control of animal diseases. Introduction.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {303-308}, pmid = {18819660}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Animals ; *Animals, Domestic ; *Animals, Wild ; Biodiversity ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Surveillance ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid18819659, year = {2008}, author = {Vallat, B}, title = {Climate change: impact on the epidemiology and control of animal diseases. Preface.}, journal = {Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {297-302}, pmid = {18819659}, issn = {0253-1933}, mesh = {Animal Diseases/*epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Animals ; *Animals, Domestic ; *Animals, Wild ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Surveillance ; }, }
@article {pmid18819642, year = {2008}, author = {Gholipoor, M and Shahsavani, S}, title = {Simulation study of past climate change effect on chickpea phenology at different sowing dates in Gorgan, Iran.}, journal = {Pakistan journal of biological sciences : PJBS}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {1561-1568}, doi = {10.3923/pjbs.2008.1561.1568}, pmid = {18819642}, issn = {1028-8880}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Biomass ; Cicer/metabolism/*physiology ; Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Greenhouse Effect ; Iran ; Models, Theoretical ; Probability ; Seasons ; Software ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {This simulation study was mainly aimed to find the probable difference between sowing dates for response of four chickpea cultivars to past climate change. Firstly, the model CYRUS was recoded in QBASIC programming. Then phenology of cultivars Jam, Hashem, Arman and Beauvanij, seeded at day of year 50, 70 and 90, was evaluated during years 1961 to 2003 in Gorgan, Iran. The changes in some climatic variables were also studied. Results revealed that the solar radiation has been decreased for month December. Although the value of maximum temperature appeared to be the same across years 1961 to 2003 for all months, that of minimum temperature tended to show increasing trend for May and August. The increase in number of days with temperature higher than 35 degrees C was considerable for April and October, but negligible for other months. The warming of night temperature was significant only for May and August. It found about 34 mm per 43 years decrease in monthly rainfall for March. The rate of increase in number of days with rainfall was 0.0737 day per year for December. Nearly similar situation was found for number of days with rainfall lower than and/or equal to 10 mm. The change in number of days with rainfall higher than 10 mm and lower and/or equal to 30 mm was in decreasing manner (March, October and December). The length of time from sowing to emergence appeared to be constant across past years. The advance in flowering (R1) was true only for cultivar Jam seeded at day of year 70. The length of period from R1 to pod initiation (R3) has been diminished for sowing at day of year 70 (Jam and Arman). Only cultivar Hashem seeded at day of year 90 tended to have decreasing trend for length of period between R3 and pod filling. It found one day (per 43 years) decreases from pod yellowing to maturity for cultivar Beauvanij seeded at day of year 70. Based on these findings and on the fact that future climate change is predicted using past changes, it seems that the adaptation strategies for future, including agronomy and/or breeding programs, may be not the same for different sowing dates of chickpea.}, }
@article {pmid18818153, year = {2008}, author = {Knutti, R}, title = {Should we believe model predictions of future climate change?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {366}, number = {1885}, pages = {4647-4664}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2008.0169}, pmid = {18818153}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Predictions of future climate are based on elaborate numerical computer models. As computational capacity increases and better observations become available, one would expect the model predictions to become more reliable. However, are they really improving, and how do we know? This paper discusses how current climate models are evaluated, why and where scientists have confidence in their models, how uncertainty in predictions can be quantified, and why models often tend to converge on what we observe but not on what we predict. Furthermore, it outlines some strategies on how the climate modelling community may overcome some of the current deficiencies in the attempt to provide useful information to the public and policy-makers.}, }
@article {pmid18818148, year = {2008}, author = {Skinner, L}, title = {Facing future climate change: is the past relevant?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {366}, number = {1885}, pages = {4627-4645}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2008.0228}, pmid = {18818148}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Climate ; *Climate Change ; *Forecasting ; Geology ; Models, Theoretical ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {From a socio-economic perspective, the 'sharp end' of climate research is very much about looking forward in time. As far as possible, we need to know what to expect and approximately when to expect it. However, it is argued here that our approach to climate change (including its scientific basis and its policy implications) is firmly linked to our understanding of the past. This is mainly due to the role played by palaeoclimate reconstructions in shaping our expectations of the climate system, in particular via their ability to test the accuracy of our climate models. Importantly, this includes the intuitive models that each of us carries around in our mind, as well as the more complex numerical models hiding inside supercomputers. It is through such models that palaeoclimate insights may affect the scientific and political judgements that we must make in the face of persistent and ultimately irreducible predictive uncertainty. Already we can demonstrate a great deal of confidence in our current understanding of the global climate system based specifically on insights from the geological record. If further advances are to be made effectively, climate models should take advantage of both past and present constraints on their behaviour, and should be given added credence to the extent that they are compatible with an increasingly rich tapestry of past climatic phenomena. Furthermore, palaeoclimate data should be accompanied by clearly defined uncertainties, and organized in arrays that are capable of speaking directly to numerical models, and their limitations in particular.}, }
@article {pmid18811352, year = {1998}, author = {Camill, P and Clark, JS}, title = {Climate change disequilibrium of boreal permafrost peatlands caused by local processes.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {151}, number = {3}, pages = {207-222}, doi = {10.1086/286112}, pmid = {18811352}, issn = {0003-0147}, abstract = {Boreal forest and tundra are the biomes expected to experience the greatest warming during the course of the next century. The transient responses of boreal peatlands to climate change could be more complex than a simple large release of carbon and rapid migrations of vegetation and permafrost. Here we used alternative models to demonstrate that local processes typical of permafrost peatlands control carbon and vegetation dynamics in ways that strongly mediate effects of regional temperature gradients. Regional temperature affected stability and thaw rate. Thaw rate increased with mean annual temperature, and rates have accelerated within the last 50 yr. Local factors exerted a strong influence on stability, the levels of which were highest in three of the four temperature zones studied along the shaded south-southwest edges of collapse scars. The presence of Sphagnum fuscum cover increased stability. In all zones, survey points with S. fuscum showed more than twice the stability of points with feather moss, lichen, or no vegetation. In a direct model comparison between regional and local control, local factors were more important. Our results suggest that local processes mediate the effects of regional climate, and an accurate representation of ecosystem dynamics benefits from both local and regional processes.}, }
@article {pmid18810526, year = {2009}, author = {Mertz, O and Mbow, C and Reenberg, A and Diouf, A}, title = {Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {43}, number = {5}, pages = {804-816}, pmid = {18810526}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics/*methods ; Burkina Faso ; *Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Opinion ; }, abstract = {Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.}, }
@article {pmid18803827, year = {2008}, author = {Ebi, KL}, title = {Adaptation costs for climate change-related cases of diarrhoeal disease, malnutrition, and malaria in 2030.}, journal = {Globalization and health}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {9}, pmid = {18803827}, issn = {1744-8603}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, with larger burdens projected in the future as weather patterns continue to change. The climate change-related health consequences of diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition, and malaria are projected to pose the largest risks to future populations. Limited work has been done to estimate the costs of adapting to these additional health burdens.<br><br>METHODS: The costs of treating diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition (stunting and wasting only), and malaria in 2030 were estimated under three climate scenarios using (1) the current numbers of cases; (2) the projected relative risks of these diseases in 2030; and (3) current treatment costs. The analysis assumed that the number of annual cases and costs of treatment would remain constant. There was limited consideration of socioeconomic development.<br><br>RESULTS: Under a scenario assuming emissions reductions resulting in stabilization at 750 ppm CO2 equivalent in 2210, the costs of treating diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition, and malaria in 2030 were estimated to be $4 to 12 billion. This is almost as much as current total annual overseas development assistance for health.<br><br>CONCLUSION: The investment needs in the health sector to address climate-sensitive health outcomes are large. Additional human and financial resources will be needed to prevent and control the projected increased burden of health outcomes due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18801988, year = {2008}, author = {Cox, P and Jones, C}, title = {Climate change. Illuminating the modern dance of climate and CO2.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {321}, number = {5896}, pages = {1642-1644}, doi = {10.1126/science.1158907}, pmid = {18801988}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid18801921, year = {2008}, author = {Schellnhuber, HJ}, title = {Global warming: stop worrying, start panicking?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {105}, number = {38}, pages = {14239-14240}, pmid = {18801921}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Anxiety ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Public Policy ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid18800997, year = {2008}, author = {O'Loughlin, SM and Okabayashi, T and Honda, M and Kitazoe, Y and Kishino, H and Somboon, P and Sochantha, T and Nambanya, S and Saikia, PK and Dev, V and Walton, C}, title = {Complex population history of two Anopheles dirus mosquito species in Southeast Asia suggests the influence of Pleistocene climate change rather than human-mediated effects.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {21}, number = {6}, pages = {1555-1569}, doi = {10.1111/j.1420-9101.2008.01606.x}, pmid = {18800997}, issn = {1420-9101}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles/*classification/enzymology/*physiology ; Asia, Southeastern ; *Climatic Processes ; Electron Transport Complex IV/genetics ; *Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Geography ; Haplotypes ; Humans ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {Anopheles dirus and Anopheles baimaii are closely related species which feed on primates, particularly humans, and transmit malaria in the tropical forests of mainland Southeast Asia. Here, we report an in-depth phylogeographic picture based on 269 individuals from 21 populations from mainland Southeast Asia. Analysis of 1537 bp of mtDNA sequence revealed that the population history of A. baimaii is far more complex than previously thought. An old expansion (pre-300 kyr BP) was inferred in northern India/Bangladesh with a wave of south-eastwards expansion arriving at the Thai border (ca 135-173 kyr BP) followed by leptokurtic dispersal very recently (ca 16 kyr BP) into peninsular Thailand. The long and complex population history of these anthropophilic species suggests their expansions are not in response to the relatively recent (ca 40 kyr BP) human expansions in mainland Southeast Asia but, rather, fit well with our understanding of Pleistocene climatic change there.}, }
@article {pmid18799177, year = {2009}, author = {Gould, EA and Higgs, S}, title = {Impact of climate change and other factors on emerging arbovirus diseases.}, journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene}, volume = {103}, number = {2}, pages = {109-121}, pmid = {18799177}, issn = {1878-3503}, support = {R21 AI073389-01/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI 67847/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R21 AI073389-02S1/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R21 AI073389-02/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R21 AI073389/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI067847/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Alphavirus Infections/*epidemiology/transmission ; Animals ; Arbovirus Infections/*epidemiology/transmission ; Arthropods/virology ; Bluetongue virus ; Chikungunya virus ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Reservoirs ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/virology ; Rift Valley Fever/epidemiology/transmission ; Sheep ; West Nile Fever/epidemiology/transmission ; West Nile virus ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology/transmission ; }, abstract = {While some skeptics remain unconvinced that global climate change is a reality, there is no doubt that during the past 50 years or so, patterns of emerging arbovirus diseases have changed significantly. Can this be attributed to climate change? Climate is a major factor in determining: (1) the geographic and temporal distribution of arthropods; (2) characteristics of arthropod life cycles; (3) dispersal patterns of associated arboviruses; (4) the evolution of arboviruses; and (5) the efficiency with which they are transmitted from arthropods to vertebrate hosts. Thus, under the influence of increasing temperatures and rainfall through warming of the oceans, and alteration of the natural cycles that stabilise climate, one is inevitably drawn to the conclusion that arboviruses will continue to emerge in new regions. For example, we cannot ignore the unexpected but successful establishment of chikungunya fever in northern Italy, the sudden appearance of West Nile virus in North America, the increasing frequency of Rift Valley fever epidemics in the Arabian Peninsula, and very recently, the emergence of Bluetongue virus in northern Europe. In this brief review we ask the question, are these diseases emerging because of climate change or do other factors play an equal or even more important role in their emergence?}, }
@article {pmid18799005, year = {2008}, author = {Fritze, JG and Blashki, GA and Burke, S and Wiseman, J}, title = {Hope, despair and transformation: Climate change and the promotion of mental health and wellbeing.}, journal = {International journal of mental health systems}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {13}, pmid = {18799005}, issn = {1752-4458}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: This article aims to provide an introduction to emerging evidence and debate about the relationship between climate change and mental health.<br><br>DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The authors argue that:i) the direct impacts of climate change such as extreme weather events will have significant mental health implications;ii) climate change is already impacting on the social, economic and environmental determinants of mental health with the most severe consequences being felt by disadvantaged communities and populations; iii) understanding the full extent of the long term social and environmental challenges posed by climate change has the potential to create emotional distress and anxiety; and iv) understanding the psycho-social implications of climate change is also an important starting point for informed action to prevent dangerous climate change at individual, community and societal levels.}, }
@article {pmid18795506, year = {2008}, author = {Carballo, M}, title = {Climate change, migration and health.}, journal = {World hospitals and health services : the official journal of the International Hospital Federation}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {47-48}, pmid = {18795506}, issn = {1029-0540}, mesh = {*Emigration and Immigration ; Food Supply ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Social Conditions ; }, abstract = {In summary, climate change of the magnitude that is now being talked about promises to invoke major changes in the nature of the world we live in. From an agricultural and food production perspective new challenges are already emerging and many countries, regional organizations and international agencies are ill-prepared to deal with them. From the perspective of the forced emergence of new diseases. There may also be complex struggles for scarce resources including land, water, food and housing. To what extent these will translate into social and political instability is not clear, but the potential for instability within and between countries should not be under-estimated; nor should the scarcity of selected commodities. Understanding these complex dynamics and planning for them in timely and comprehensive ways is essential. Preparedness by governments, the international community and the private sector, will help accommodate some of the changes that are already taking place and many others which are still to materialize.}, }
@article {pmid18795337, year = {2008}, author = {Spooner, DE and Vaughn, CC}, title = {A trait-based approach to species' roles in stream ecosystems: climate change, community structure, and material cycling.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {158}, number = {2}, pages = {307-317}, pmid = {18795337}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Biomass ; Bivalvia/*physiology ; Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; United States ; }, abstract = {The sustained decline in habitat quality and community integrity highlights the importance of understanding how communities and environmental variation interactively contribute to ecosystem services. We performed a laboratory experiment manipulating effects of acclimation temperature (5, 15, 25, and 35 degrees C) on resource acquisition, assimilation and subsequent ecosystem services provided by eight freshwater mussel species. Our results suggest that although freshwater mussels are broadly categorized as filter feeders, there are distinct nested functional guilds (thermally tolerant and sensitive) associated with their thermal performance. At 35 degrees C, thermally tolerant species have increased resource assimilation and higher rates of contributed ecosystem services (nutrient excretion, benthic-pelagic coupling). Conversely, thermally sensitive species have decreased assimilation rates and display an array of functional responses including increased/decreased benthic-pelagic coupling and nutrient excretion. Although thermally sensitive species may be in poorer physiological condition at warmer temperatures, their physiological responses can have positive effects on ecosystem services. We extrapolated these results to real mussel beds varying in species composition to address how shifts in community composition coupled with climate change may shift their contributed ecological services. Comparative field data indicate that two co-existing, abundant species with opposing thermal performance (Actinonaias ligamentina, Amblema plicata) differentially dominate community biomass. Additionally, communities varying in the relative proportion of these species differentially influence the magnitude (benthic-pelagic coupling) and quality (N:P excretion) of ecosystem services. As species are increasingly threatened by climate change, greater emphasis should be placed on understanding the contribution of physiological stress to the integrity and functioning of ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid18787119, year = {2008}, author = {Dakos, V and Scheffer, M and van Nes, EH and Brovkin, V and Petoukhov, V and Held, H}, title = {Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {105}, number = {38}, pages = {14308-14312}, pmid = {18787119}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate ; Forecasting ; Geology ; Greenhouse Effect ; History, Ancient ; *Models, Theoretical ; Periodicity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {In the Earth's history, periods of relatively stable climate have often been interrupted by sharp transitions to a contrasting state. One explanation for such events of abrupt change is that they happened when the earth system reached a critical tipping point. However, this remains hard to prove for events in the remote past, and it is even more difficult to predict if and when we might reach a tipping point for abrupt climate change in the future. Here, we analyze eight ancient abrupt climate shifts and show that they were all preceded by a characteristic slowing down of the fluctuations starting well before the actual shift. Such slowing down, measured as increased autocorrelation, can be mathematically shown to be a hallmark of tipping points. Therefore, our results imply independent empirical evidence for the idea that past abrupt shifts were associated with the passing of critical thresholds. Because the mechanism causing slowing down is fundamentally inherent to tipping points, it follows that our way to detect slowing down might be used as a universal early warning signal for upcoming catastrophic change. Because tipping points in ecosystems and other complex systems are notoriously hard to predict in other ways, this is a promising perspective.}, }
@article {pmid18776619, year = {2008}, author = {De Toffol, S and Engelhard, C and Rauch, W}, title = {Influence of climate change on the water resources in an alpine region.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {58}, number = {4}, pages = {839-846}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2008.705}, pmid = {18776619}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Austria ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Water Movements ; Water Supply/*analysis ; }, abstract = {It is widely accepted that the global warming will impact on water resources. This study investigates the possible influence of climate change on the water resources in an alpine region. A description of the actual situation with emphasis on the water resources from the one side and on the water consuming factors, here called stressors, is given. The probable effects of climate change in the region and their influence on its water resources are then described. The main outcome is that in the analysed region the climate change will rather have positive influence on the water balance by inducing higher precipitations during the rivers' natural low flow period (winter). This outcome contradicts many common predictions, however, this due to the specifics induced by the alpine nature of the catchment.}, }
@article {pmid18774380, year = {2008}, author = {Shea, KM and Truckner, RT and Weber, RW and Peden, DB}, title = {Climate change and allergic disease.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {122}, number = {3}, pages = {443-53; quiz 454-5}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaci.2008.06.032}, pmid = {18774380}, issn = {1097-6825}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; *Allergens ; Asthma/epidemiology/*etiology ; *Climate ; Disaster Planning ; Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/epidemiology/*etiology ; Incidence ; Pollen ; Prevalence ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Climate change is potentially the largest global threat to human health ever encountered. The earth is warming, the warming is accelerating, and human actions are largely responsible. If current emissions and land use trends continue unchecked, the next generations will face more injury, disease, and death related to natural disasters and heat waves, higher rates of climate-related infections, and wide-spread malnutrition, as well as more allergic and air pollution-related morbidity and mortality. This review highlights links between global climate change and anticipated increases in prevalence and severity of asthma and related allergic disease mediated through worsening ambient air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production. The pattern of change will vary regionally depending on latitude, altitude, rainfall and storms, land-use patterns, urbanization, transportation, and energy production. The magnitude of climate change and related increases in allergic disease will be affected by how aggressively greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are pursued, but at best an average warming of 1 to 2 degrees C is certain this century. Thus, anticipation of a higher allergic disease burden will affect clinical practice as well as public health planning. A number of practical primary and secondary prevention strategies are suggested at the end of the review to assist in meeting this unprecedented public health challenge.}, }
@article {pmid18771506, year = {2009}, author = {Both, C and van Asch, M and Bijlsma, RG and van den Burg, AB and Visser, ME}, title = {Climate change and unequal phenological changes across four trophic levels: constraints or adaptations?.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {78}, number = {1}, pages = {73-83}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01458.x}, pmid = {18771506}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; *Food Chain ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Lepidoptera/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Passeriformes/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Time Factors ; Trees/growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {1. Climate change has been shown to affect the phenology of many organisms, but interestingly these shifts are often unequal across trophic levels, causing a mismatch between the phenology of organisms and their food. 2. We consider two alternative hypotheses: consumers are constrained to adjust sufficiently to the lower trophic level, or prey species react more strongly than their predators to reduce predation. We discuss both hypotheses with our analyses of changes in phenology across four trophic levels: tree budburst, peak biomass of herbivorous caterpillars, breeding phenology of four insectivorous bird species and an avian predator. 3. In our long-term study, we show that between 1988 and 2005, budburst advanced (not significantly) with 0.17 d yr(-1), while between 1985 and 2005 both caterpillars (0.75 d year(-1)) and the hatching date of the passerine species (range for four species: 0.36-0.50 d year(-1)) have advanced, whereas raptor hatching dates showed no trend. 4. The caterpillar peak date was closely correlated with budburst date, as were the passerine hatching dates with the peak caterpillar biomass date. In all these cases, however, the slopes were significantly less than unity, showing that the response of the consumers is weaker than that of their food. This was also true for the avian predator, for which hatching dates were not correlated with the peak availability of fledgling passerines. As a result, the match between food demand and availability deteriorated over time for both the passerines and the avian predators. 5. These results could equally well be explained by consumers' insufficient responses as a consequence of constraints in adapting to climate change, or by them trying to escape predation from a higher trophic level, or both. Selection on phenology could thus be both from matches of phenology with higher and lower levels, and quantifying these can shed new light on why some organisms do adjust their phenology to climate change, while others do not.}, }
@article {pmid18771192, year = {2008}, author = {Wilkinson, P}, title = {Climate change &amp; health: the case for sustainable development.}, journal = {Medicine, conflict, and survival}, volume = {24 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {S26-35}, doi = {10.1080/13623690801957331}, pmid = {18771192}, issn = {1362-3699}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources/*statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Policy ; Health Status ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {The Earth's climate has been stable for around 10,000 years, though it has been very variable in earlier periods and has occasionally changed abruptly through natural processes. Industrialization and population growth have brought an exponential rise in the use of carbonaceous fuels, which is now having an observable impact on the composition of the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide levels are already substantially above pre-industrial levels, and rising appreciably year on year. Climate models suggest that the anthropogenic rise in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to rapid climate change over the twenty-first century, with an increase in global average temperatures in the region of two to five degrees Celsius. This will present problems of adaptation for many natural systems and have largely negative effects on human health through both direct and indirect mechanisms. There is also a possibility of unpredicted catastrophic impacts arising from non-linear effects of climate change, which may have more damaging effects on human and other populations. Policy responses have to be directed towards both adaptation needs and mitigation. Mitigation in particular presents formidable social, political and technological challenges, but it may bring net health benefits in the short as well as the longer term.}, }
@article {pmid18768383, year = {2008}, author = {Davison, A and Chiba, S}, title = {Contrasting response to Pleistocene climate change by ground-living and arboreal Mandarina snails from the oceanic Hahajima archipelago.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1508}, pages = {3391-3400}, pmid = {18768383}, issn = {1471-2970}, mesh = {Animals ; Base Sequence ; Genetic Drift ; *Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Japan ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Molecular Sequence Data ; *Phylogeny ; Population Density ; RNA, Ribosomal, 16S/genetics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Snails/*genetics ; }, abstract = {While the genetic impact of Pleistocene climate change on temperate species has been well characterized, especially in Europe and North America, an effect on the diversification of species on oceanic islands has been less well studied. This is perhaps a surprising observation given the traditional and continuing contribution of island species (e.g. Darwin's finches, Partula snails, Lord Howe Island palms) to understand speciation. Here, we combine mitochondrial and microsatellite data from the ground-living and arboreal Mandarina snails of the oceanic, subtropical Hahajima archipelago (Ogasawara, colloquially 'Galápagos of the Orient') to enable a comparative approach to understand the impact of the Pleistocene glaciations on their phylogeography. Prior work suggested that several narrowly divergent, ground-living species pairs of Mandarina populations on the outlying islands, as well as the low-lying southern and central parts of Hahajima, probably underwent bottlenecks and subsequent expansions during the recent Pleistocene. Here, the most striking finding is that largely arboreal species have deeply divergent, geographically restricted mitochondrial lineages, in contrast to a census size that is at least an order of magnitude lower than ground-living snails. As populations of both types are highly polymorphic at microsatellite loci, the systematic difference at the mitochondrial locus probably indicates a contrasting effect of the Pleistocene climate cycles on the two groups. We speculate that this may have partly come about owing to a reduced efficacy of natural selection on the more greatly structured populations of arboreal snails. If so, then a prediction is that the genome of other snails, or other species with limited mobility, will show a similar response to the Pleistocene climate cycles.}, }
@article {pmid18761852, year = {2008}, author = {Faergeman, O}, title = {[Climate change, disease and public health].}, journal = {Ugeskrift for laeger}, volume = {170}, number = {35}, pages = {2667-2668}, pmid = {18761852}, issn = {1603-6824}, abstract = {Infectious diseases, malnutrition, et cetera will all become more common as the earth gets warmer and the climate becomes more unstable. Even though obesity, type II diabetes and coronary artery disease do not result from climate change, they do share causes with climate change. The production of livestock in agriculture, for example, is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions as well as a source of many of our most energy-rich foods. Physicians and medical societies should therefore contribute to the public debate about climate change and what to do about it.}, }
@article {pmid18760479, year = {2009}, author = {Florides, GA and Christodoulides, P}, title = {Global warming and carbon dioxide through sciences.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, pages = {390-401}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2008.07.007}, pmid = {18760479}, issn = {1873-6750}, mesh = {Air/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {Increased atmospheric CO(2)-concentration is widely being considered as the main driving factor that causes the phenomenon of global warming. This paper attempts to shed more light on the role of atmospheric CO(2) in relation to temperature-increase and, more generally, in relation to Earth's life through the geological aeons, based on a review-assessment of existing related studies. It is pointed out that there has been a debate on the accuracy of temperature reconstructions as well as on the exact impact that CO(2) has on global warming. Moreover, using three independent sets of data (collected from ice-cores and chemistry) we perform a specific regression analysis which concludes that forecasts about the correlation between CO(2)-concentration and temperature rely heavily on the choice of data used, and one cannot be positive that indeed such a correlation exists (for chemistry data) or even, if existing (for ice-cores data), whether it leads to a "severe" or a "gentle" global warming. A very recent development on the greenhouse phenomenon is a validated adiabatic model, based on laws of physics, forecasting a maximum temperature-increase of 0.01-0.03 degrees C for a value doubling the present concentration of atmospheric CO(2). Through a further review of related studies and facts from disciplines like biology and geology, where CO(2)-change is viewed from a different perspective, it is suggested that CO(2)-change is not necessarily always a negative factor for the environment. In fact it is shown that CO(2)-increase has stimulated the growth of plants, while the CO(2)-change history has altered the physiology of plants. Moreover, data from palaeoclimatology show that the CO(2)-content in the atmosphere is at a minimum in this geological aeon. Finally it is stressed that the understanding of the functioning of Earth's complex climate system (especially for water, solar radiation and so forth) is still poor and, hence, scientific knowledge is not at a level to give definite and precise answers for the causes of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid18759775, year = {2008}, author = {Brooke, C}, title = {Conservation and adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {1471-1476}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01031.x}, pmid = {18759775}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends ; Decision Making ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Organizations/trends ; *Public Policy ; Risk Assessment ; *Social Change ; }, abstract = {The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18757740, year = {2008}, author = {Teplitsky, C and Mills, JA and Alho, JS and Yarrall, JW and Merilä, J}, title = {Bergmann's rule and climate change revisited: disentangling environmental and genetic responses in a wild bird population.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {105}, number = {36}, pages = {13492-13496}, pmid = {18757740}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Aging/physiology ; Animals ; Breeding ; Charadriiformes/*genetics ; *Climate ; Female ; Male ; New Zealand ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Ecological responses to on-going climate change are numerous, diverse, and taxonomically widespread. However, with one exception, the relative roles of phenotypic plasticity and microevolution as mechanisms in explaining these responses are largely unknown. Several recent studies have uncovered evidence for temporal declines in mean body sizes of birds and mammals, and these responses have been interpreted as evidence for microevolution in the context of Bergmann's rule-an ecogeographic rule predicting an inverse correlation between temperature and mean body size in endothermic animals. We used a dataset of individually marked red-billed gulls (Larus novaehollandiae scopulinus) from New Zealand to document phenotypic and genetic changes in mean body mass over a 47-year (1958-2004) period. We found that, whereas the mean body mass had decreased over time as ambient temperatures increased, analyses of breeding values estimated with an "animal model" approach showed no evidence for any genetic change. These results indicate that the frequently observed climate-change-related responses in mean body size of animal populations might be due to phenotypic plasticity, rather than to genetic microevolutionary responses.}, }
@article {pmid18757278, year = {2008}, author = {Launder, B and Thompson, JM}, title = {Preface. Geoscale engineering to avert dangerous climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {366}, number = {1882}, pages = {3841-3842}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2008.0151}, pmid = {18757278}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Disasters/*prevention &amp; control ; *Ecosystem ; Engineering/*trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid18757273, year = {2008}, author = {Salter, S and Sortino, G and Latham, J}, title = {Sea-going hardware for the cloud albedo method of reversing global warming.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {366}, number = {1882}, pages = {3989-4006}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2008.0136}, pmid = {18757273}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Disasters/*prevention &amp; control ; *Ecosystem ; Engineering/*instrumentation ; Equipment Design ; Equipment Failure Analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Following the review by Latham et al. (Latham et al. 2008 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 366) of a strategy to reduce insolation by exploiting the Twomey effect, the present paper describes in outline the rationale and underlying engineering hardware that may bring the strategy from concept to operation. Wind-driven spray vessels will sail back and forth perpendicular to the local prevailing wind and release micron-sized drops of seawater into the turbulent boundary layer beneath marine stratocumulus clouds. The combination of wind and vessel movements will treat a large area of sky. When residues left after drop evaporation reach cloud level they will provide many new cloud condensation nuclei giving more but smaller drops and so will increase the cloud albedo to reflect solar energy back out to space. If the possible power increase of 3.7W m-2 from double pre-industrial CO2 is divided by the 24-hour solar input of 340W m-2, a global albedo increase of only 1.1 per cent will produce a sufficient offset. The method is not intended to make new clouds. It will just make existing clouds whiter. This paper describes the design of 300 tonne ships powered by Flettner rotors rather than conventional sails. The vessels will drag turbines resembling oversized propellers through the water to provide the means for generating electrical energy. Some will be used for rotor spin, but most will be used to create spray by pumping 30 kgs-1 of carefully filtered water through banks of filters and then to micro-nozzles with piezoelectric excitation to vary drop diameter. The rotors offer a convenient housing for spray nozzles with fan assistance to help initial dispersion. The ratio of solar energy reflected by a drop at the top of a cloud to the energy needed to make the surface area of the nucleus on which it has grown is many orders of magnitude and so the spray quantities needed to achieve sufficient global cooling are technically feasible.}, }
@article {pmid18757271, year = {2008}, author = {Anderson, K and Bows, A}, title = {Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {366}, number = {1882}, pages = {3863-3882}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2008.0138}, pmid = {18757271}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Disasters/*prevention &amp; control ; *Ecosystem ; Engineering/*trends ; *Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Vehicle Emissions/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2 degrees C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2 degrees C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000-2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO2e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO2e is improbable.}, }
@article {pmid18756215, year = {2008}, author = {Harte, J}, title = {An ecologist notes that important details are missing from climate-change models.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {454}, number = {7208}, pages = {1033}, doi = {10.1038/4541033e}, pmid = {18756215}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/physiology ; Ecology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid18755673, year = {2008}, author = {Jensen, LF and Hansen, MM and Pertoldi, C and Holdensgaard, G and Mensberg, KL and Loeschcke, V}, title = {Local adaptation in brown trout early life-history traits: implications for climate change adaptability.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {275}, number = {1653}, pages = {2859-2868}, pmid = {18755673}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Linkage Disequilibrium ; Male ; Microsatellite Repeats ; *Temperature ; Trout/anatomy &amp; histology/genetics/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Knowledge of local adaptation and adaptive potential of natural populations is becoming increasingly relevant due to anthropogenic changes in the environment, such as climate change. The concern is that populations will be negatively affected by increasing temperatures without the capacity to adapt. Temperature-related adaptability in traits related to phenology and early life history are expected to be particularly important in salmonid fishes. We focused on the latter and investigated whether four populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta) are locally adapted in early life-history traits. These populations spawn in rivers that experience different temperature conditions during the time of incubation of eggs and embryos. They were reared in a common-garden experiment at three different temperatures. Quantitative genetic differentiation (QST) exceeded neutral molecular differentiation (FST) for two traits, indicating local adaptation. A temperature effect was observed for three traits. However, this effect varied among populations due to locally adapted reaction norms, corresponding to the temperature regimes experienced by the populations in their native environments. Additive genetic variance and heritable variation in phenotypic plasticity suggest that although increasing temperatures are likely to affect some populations negatively, they may have the potential to adapt to changing temperature regimes.}, }
@article {pmid18725744, year = {2008}, author = {Standish-Lee, P and Lecina, K}, title = {Getting ready for climate change implications for the western USA.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {58}, number = {3}, pages = {727-733}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2008.704}, pmid = {18725744}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; United States ; Water Supply/analysis/*standards ; }, abstract = {Water users throughout the western United States have faced supply problems from the conception of modern civilization. Today, climate change, population growth, and declining water quality combine with the age-old problem of finding sufficient water resources in a region with a largely arid climate. Climate change in particular poses a significant threat to the sustainability of water supplies in the western United States (the West). Casting aside all debate about who and what is responsible for climate change, the public and water utilities alike must be prepared to address its effects on water supplies.}, }
@article {pmid18717982, year = {2008}, author = {Nazaroff, WW}, title = {Climate change, building energy use, and indoor environmental quality.}, journal = {Indoor air}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {259-260}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0668.2008.00556.x}, pmid = {18717982}, issn = {1600-0668}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; *Air Pollution, Indoor ; Carbon/analysis ; *Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid18717370, year = {2008}, author = {Pearce, DA}, title = {Climate change and the microbiology of the Antarctic Peninsula region.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {91}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {203-217}, pmid = {18717370}, issn = {0036-8504}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; *Bacteria ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Seasons ; Sodium Chloride ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems are cold, dry, low nutrient environments, with large temperature fluctuations and paradoxically low levels of water availability. These extreme environments are dominated by microorganisms (viruses, archaea, eubacteria, fungi and microsporidia, alveolata, stmramenopila, rhodophyta, green algae and protists), which can either tolerate or are adapted to exploit unfavourable growth conditions. However, climate change is altering the growth environment in Antarctica, and so selection pressures on these microorganisms are changing which, in turn, might affect microbial activity in key processes such as biogeochemical cycling. Although the direct effect of a change in, for example, temperature, is known for very few Antarctic microorganisms, molecular techniques (to monitor population structure) and genomic techniques (to identify specific gene function) are starting to give us an insight into what the potential effects of climate change might be at the cellular level. The key to how microorganisms respond to such change depends upon the rate and magnitude of the change along with the physiological capability of microorganisms to adapt or tolerate those changes. Here we will examine a number of case studies in which the effects of factors such as temperature, nutrient availability, grazing, salinity, seasonal cycle and carbon dioxide concentration have each been demonstrated to affect bacterial community structure in polar and alpine ecosystems. The results suggest that the spatial distribution of genetic variation and, hence, comparative rates of evolution, colonization and extinction are particularly important when considering the response of microbial communities to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18717369, year = {2008}, author = {Vickery, M}, title = {Butterflies as indicators of climate change.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {91}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {193-201}, pmid = {18717369}, issn = {0036-8504}, mesh = {Animals ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {In Britain, most butterfly species reach the limit of their range due to climate. Such species are the ones most likely to show rapid adaptations to climate change. There are indications that several butterfly species are adapting and that these insects make good indicators of the likely effects of climate change on other animals.}, }
@article {pmid18717368, year = {2008}, author = {Fuglei, E and Ims, RA}, title = {Global warming and effects on the Arctic fox.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {91}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {175-191}, pmid = {18717368}, issn = {0036-8504}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Ecosystem ; Feeding Behavior ; Foxes/*physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {We predict the effect of global warming on the arctic fox, the only endemic terrestrial predatory mammals in the arctic region. We emphasize the difference between coastal and inland arctic fox populations. Inland foxes rely on peak abundance of lemming prey to sustain viable populations. In the short-term, warmer winters result in missed lemming peak years and reduced opportunities for successful arctic fox breeding. In the long-term, however, warmer climate will increase plant productivity and more herbivore prey for competitive dominant predators moving in from the south. The red fox has already intruded the arctic region and caused a retreat of the southern limit of arctic fox distribution range. Coastal arctic foxes, which rely on the richer and temporally stable marine subsidies, will be less prone to climate-induced resource limitations. Indeed, arctic islands, becoming protected from southern species invasions as the extent of sea ice is decreasing, may become the last refuges for coastal populations of Arctic foxes.}, }
@article {pmid18717367, year = {2008}, author = {Wiig, &#xd8; and Aars, J and Born, EW}, title = {Effects of climate change on polar bears.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {91}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {151-173}, pmid = {18717367}, issn = {0036-8504}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; Ursidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In this article, we review the effects on polar bears of global warming that have already been observed, and try to evaluate what may happen to the polar bears in the future. Many researchers have predicted a wide range of impacts of climate change on polar bear demography and conditions. A predicted major reduction in sea ice habitat will reduce the availability of ice associated seals, the main prey of polar bears, and a loss and fragmentation of polar bear habitat will ultimately lead to large future reductions in most subpopulations. It is likely that polar bears will be lost from many areas where they are common today and also that the total population will change into a few more distinctly isolated populations.}, }
@article {pmid18717366, year = {2008}, author = {Kovacs, KM and Lydersen, C}, title = {Climate change impacts on seals and whales in the North Atlantic Arctic and adjacent shelf seas.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {91}, number = {Pt 2}, pages = {117-150}, pmid = {18717366}, issn = {0036-8504}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Atlantic Ocean ; Caniformia/*physiology ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice ; Population Dynamics ; Whales/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In a warmer Arctic, endemic marine mammal species will face extreme levels of habitat change, most notably a dramatic reduction in sea ice. Additionally, the physical environmental changes, including less ice and increased water (and air) temperatures will result in alterations to the forage base of arctic marine mammals, including density and distributional shifts in their prey, as well as potential losses of some of their traditionally favoured fat-rich prey species. In addition they are likely to face increased competition from invasive temperate species, increased predation from species formerly unable to access them in areas of extensive sea ice or simply because the water temperature was restrictive, increased disease risk and perhaps also increased risks from contaminants. Over the coming decades it is also likely that arctic marine mammals will face increased impacts from human traffic and development in previously inaccessible, ice-covered areas. Impacts on ice-associated cetaceans are difficult to predict because the reasons for their affiliation with sea ice are not clearly understood. But, it is certain that ice-breeding seals will have marked, or total, breeding-habitat loss in their traditional breeding areas and will certainly undergo distributional changes and in all probability abundance reductions. If species are fixed in traditional spatial and temporal cycles, and are unable to shift them within decadal time scales, some populations will go extinct. In somewhat longer time frames, species extinctions can also be envisaged.}, }
@article {pmid18715663, year = {2009}, author = {Brugger, K and Rubel, F}, title = {Simulation of climate-change scenarios to explain Usutu-virus dynamics in Austria.}, journal = {Preventive veterinary medicine}, volume = {88}, number = {1}, pages = {24-31}, doi = {10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.06.023}, pmid = {18715663}, issn = {0167-5877}, mesh = {Animals ; Austria/epidemiology ; Bird Diseases/*epidemiology/*virology ; Computer Simulation ; Disease Outbreaks/*veterinary ; Encephalitis Viruses, Japanese/*growth &amp; development ; Flaviviridae Infections/epidemiology/*veterinary ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; *Passeriformes ; }, abstract = {The emergence and spread of infectious diseases in mid-latitudes, so far mainly observed in the tropics, considerably increase under the current situation of climate change. A recent example is the Usutu virus (USUV) outbreak in Austria. USUV is closely related to the West Nile virus in the U.S. and caused mass mortalities mainly of blackbirds (Turdus merula). The USUV flavivirus persists in a natural transmission cycle between vectors (mosquitoes) and host reservoirs (birds) and leads - once endemic in a population - to periodic outbreaks. In an epidemic model to explain the USUV dynamics in Austria 2001-2005, USUV dynamics were mainly determined by an interaction of bird immunity and environmental temperature. To investigate future scenarios, we entered temperature predictions from five global climate models into the USUV model and also considered four different climate-warming scenarios defined by the I ntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC (20 different model-scenario combinations). We downscaled the 20 time series of predicted temperatures (through the year 2100) to represent the region around Vienna. Our simulations predict that USUV will persist in the host population after the epidemic peak observed in 2003. USUV-specific annual blackbird-mortality time series predict that the outbreak frequency increases successively from the beginning to the end of the century. Simulations of worst-case scenarios result in an endemic equilibrium with a decline of the blackbird population of about 24%. Additionally we calculated the annually averaged basic reproduction number for the period 1901-2100. The latter depict that undetected major outbreaks before 2000 were unlikely, whereas it is likely that the USUV becomes endemic after 2040.}, }
@article {pmid18714433, year = {2008}, author = {}, title = {Positioning agriculture and forestry to meet the challenges of climate change. Proceedings of a conference. February 6-8, 2007. Baltimore, Maryland, USA.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {37}, number = {4}, pages = {1317-1395}, pmid = {18714433}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Forestry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid18711634, year = {2008}, author = {Brown, G and Patterson, V}, title = {Climate change and its impact on health.}, journal = {The Ulster medical journal}, volume = {77}, number = {2}, pages = {130-131}, pmid = {18711634}, issn = {0041-6193}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Health ; Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid18711074, year = {2008}, author = {Balato, N and Patruno, C and D'Errico, FP and Balato, A}, title = {Global warming and its effect on dermatology and plants.}, journal = {Archives of dermatology}, volume = {144}, number = {8}, pages = {1016}, doi = {10.1001/archderm.144.8.1016}, pmid = {18711074}, issn = {1538-3652}, mesh = {Animals ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Larva Migrans/epidemiology/parasitology ; Moths ; *Plant Diseases ; Skin Diseases, Infectious/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid18709914, year = {2008}, author = {Sharpe, VA}, title = {"Clean" nuclear energy? Global warming, public health, and justice.}, journal = {The Hastings Center report}, volume = {38}, number = {4}, pages = {16-18}, doi = {10.1353/hcr.0.0040}, pmid = {18709914}, issn = {0093-0334}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Nuclear Energy ; *Public Health ; *Social Justice ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid18708882, year = {2008}, author = {Shea, KM}, title = {Climate change: public health crisis or opportunity.}, journal = {Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {415-417}, doi = {10.1097/01.PHH.0000333873.47948.ea}, pmid = {18708882}, issn = {1550-5022}, mesh = {Advisory Committees ; Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; Humans ; *Public Health Practice ; }, }
@article {pmid18703993, year = {2009}, author = {Dennery, PA}, title = {Society for Pediatric Research presidential address 2008: can pediatric research benefit from global warming?.}, journal = {Pediatric research}, volume = {65}, number = {1}, pages = {123-125}, doi = {10.1203/PDR.0b013e31818a07b1}, pmid = {18703993}, issn = {1530-0447}, mesh = {*Biomedical Research/trends ; Cooperative Behavior ; *Greenhouse Effect ; HIV Infections/immunology/therapy ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Leukemia/genetics/therapy ; *Pediatrics/trends ; Societies, Medical ; Stem Cells/physiology ; Treatment Outcome ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid18703721, year = {2008}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. Climate change hot spots mapped across the United States.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {321}, number = {5891}, pages = {909}, doi = {10.1126/science.321.5891.909}, pmid = {18703721}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18703260, year = {2008}, author = {Bytnerowicz, A and Arbaugh, M and Fenn, M and Gimeno, BS and Paoletti, E}, title = {Introduction: Forests under anthropogenic pressure--effects of air pollution, climate change and urban development.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {155}, number = {3}, pages = {389-390}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2008.07.013}, pmid = {18703260}, issn = {1873-6424}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Congresses as Topic ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Trees ; *Urban Renewal ; }, }
@article {pmid18702838, year = {2009}, author = {Neff, RA and Chan, IL and Smith, KC}, title = {Yesterday's dinner, tomorrow's weather, today's news? US newspaper coverage of food system contributions to climate change.}, journal = {Public health nutrition}, volume = {12}, number = {7}, pages = {1006-1014}, doi = {10.1017/S1368980008003480}, pmid = {18702838}, issn = {1475-2727}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animal Husbandry ; Awareness ; Bibliometrics ; Climate ; Food Industry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Newspapers as Topic/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Public Health ; United States ; Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence that what we eat and how it is produced affects climate change.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The present paper examines coverage of food system contributions to climate change in top US newspapers.<br><br>DESIGN: Using a sample of sixteen leading US newspapers from September 2005 to January 2008, two coders identified 'food and climate change' and 'climate change' articles based on specified criteria. Analyses examined variation across time and newspaper, the level of content relevant to food systems' contributions to climate change, and how such content was framed.<br><br>RESULTS: There were 4582 'climate change' articles in these newspapers during this period. Of these, 2.4% mentioned food or agriculture contributions, with 0.4% coded as substantially focused on the issue and 0.5% mentioning food animal contributions. The level of content on food contributions to climate change increased across time. Articles initially addressed the issue primarily in individual terms, expanding to address business and government responsibility more in later articles.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: US newspaper coverage of food systems' effects on climate change during the study period increased, but still did not reflect the increasingly solid evidence of the importance of these effects. Increased coverage may lead to responses by individuals, industry and government. Based on co-benefits with nutritional public health messages and climate change's food security threats, the public health nutrition community has an important role to play in elaborating and disseminating information about food and climate change for the US media.}, }
@article {pmid18702572, year = {2008}, author = {Campbell, D and Stafford Smith, M and Davies, J and Kuipers, P and Wakerman, J and McGregor, MJ}, title = {Responding to health impacts of climate change in the Australian desert.}, journal = {Rural and remote health}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {1008}, pmid = {18702572}, issn = {1445-6354}, mesh = {Australia ; *Desert Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Health/economics ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Services, Indigenous ; Humans ; Medically Underserved Area ; Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ; *Needs Assessment ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Climate change is likely to have a significant effect on the health of those living in the 70% of Australia that is desert. The direct impacts on health, such as increased temperature, are important. But so too are the secondary impacts that will occur as a result of the impact of climate change on an uncertain and highly variable natural environment and on the interlinking social and economic systems. The consequence of these secondary impacts will appear as changes in the incidence of disease and infections, and on the psychosocial determinants of health. Responding to the impacts of climate change on health in desert Australia will involve the active participation of a variety of interest groups ranging from local to state and federal governments and a range of public and private agencies, including those not traditionally defined as within the health sector. The modes of engagement required for this process need to be innovative, and will differ among regions on different trajectories. To this end, a first classification of these trajectories is proposed.}, }
@article {pmid18702569, year = {2008}, author = {Jones, P and Larson, A and Couper, I}, title = {The future, our rural populations and climate change--a special issue of Rural and Remote Health.}, journal = {Rural and remote health}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {1039}, pmid = {18702569}, issn = {1445-6354}, mesh = {Disasters ; Forecasting ; Fuel Oils ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Mental Health ; *Rural Health ; }, }
@article {pmid18700243, year = {2008}, author = {}, title = {Soils and waste management: a challenge to climate change. Proceedings of an OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) workshop. June 15-16, 2006. Gorizia, Italy.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {671-773}, pmid = {18700243}, issn = {0956-053X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Soil ; Waste Management/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid18697941, year = {2008}, author = {Kelly, AE and Goulden, ML}, title = {Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {105}, number = {33}, pages = {11823-11826}, pmid = {18697941}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; California ; *Climate ; Time Factors ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {A change in climate would be expected to shift plant distribution as species expand in newly favorable areas and decline in increasingly hostile locations. We compared surveys of plant cover that were made in 1977 and 2006-2007 along a 2,314-m elevation gradient in Southern California's Santa Rosa Mountains. Southern California's climate warmed at the surface, the precipitation variability increased, and the amount of snow decreased during the 30-year period preceding the second survey. We found that the average elevation of the dominant plant species rose by approximately 65 m between the surveys. This shift cannot be attributed to changes in air pollution or fire frequency and appears to be a consequence of changes in regional climate.}, }
@article {pmid18686513, year = {2008}, author = {Terradas, J and Peñuelas, J}, title = {Climate change policy: IPCC consensus is not enough.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {37}, number = {4}, pages = {321-322}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2008)37[321:ccpici]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {18686513}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Consensus ; *Environment ; Internationality ; }, }
@article {pmid18686511, year = {2008}, author = {Moen, J}, title = {Climate change: effects on the ecological basis for reindeer husbandry in Sweden.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {37}, number = {4}, pages = {304-311}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2008)37[304:cceote]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {18686511}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; *Climate ; *Ecology ; Plants ; Population Dynamics ; *Reindeer ; Seasons ; Sweden ; }, abstract = {This paper examines potential effects of predicted climate changes on the forage conditions during both summer and winter for semidomesticated reindeer in Sweden. Positive effects in summer ranges include higher plant productivity and a longer growing season, while negative effects include increased insect harassment. Forage quality may change in both positive and negative ways. An increase in shrubs and trees in alpine heaths is also likely. A warmer climate means shorter winters, which will have positive effects for the survival of reindeer. However, warmer and wetter weather may also result in increased probabilities of ice-crust formations, which strongly decrease forage availability. A warmer climate with higher forest productivity will also likely reduce lichen availability through competitive interactions. Adaptations to these changes will include maintaining a choice of grazing sites in both summer and winter. However, this capacity may already be severely limited because of other forms of land use.}, }
@article {pmid18686507, year = {2008}, author = {Nogués Bravo, D and Araújo, MB and Lasanta, T and López Moreno, JI}, title = {Climate change in Mediterranean mountains during the 21st century.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {37}, number = {4}, pages = {280-285}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2008)37[280:ccimmd]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {18686507}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate ; Mediterranean Region ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Mediterranean mountain biomes are considered endangered due to climate change that affects directly or indirectly different key features (biodiversity, snow cover, glaciers, run-off processes, and water availability). Here, we provide an assessment of temperature, precipitation, and spring precipitation changes in Mediterranean mountains under different emission scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and Atmosphere-Ocean-Coupled General Circulation Models for two periods: 2055 (2040-2069 period) and 2085 (2070-2099). Finally, the future climate trends projected for Mediterranean mountains are compared with those trends projected for non-Mediterranean European mountain ranges. The range of projected warming varies between +1.4 degrees C and 5.1 degrees C for 2055 (+1.6 degrees C and +8.3 degrees C for 2085). Climate models also project a reduction of precipitation, mainly during spring (-17% under Alfi and -4.8% under B1 for 2085). On the contrary, non-Mediterranean European mountains will not experience a reduction of annual and spring precipitation. Implications of predicted climate change for both human and physical features are coupled in an integrated framework to gain a broad perspective on future trends and their consequences.}, }
@article {pmid18686263, year = {2008}, author = {Bernardi, M}, title = {Global climate change--a feasibility perspective of its effect on human health at a local scale.}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {137-150}, doi = {10.4081/gh.2008.238}, pmid = {18686263}, issn = {1970-7096}, mesh = {Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {There are two responses to global climate change. First, mitigation, which actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester or store carbon in the short-term, and make development choices that will lead to low emissions in the long-term. Second, adaptation, which involves adjustments in natural or human systems and behaviours that reduce the risks posed by climate change to people's lives and livelihoods. While the two are conceptually distinct, in practice they are very much interdependent, and both are equally urgent from a healthy population perspective. To define the policies to mitigate and to adapt to global climate change, data and information at all scales are the basic requirement for both developed and developing countries. However, as compared to mitigation, adaptation is an immediate concern for low-income countries and for small islands states, where the reduction of the emissions from greenhouse gases is not among their priorities. Adaptation is also highly location specific and the required ground data to assess the impacts of climate change on human health are not available. Climate data at high spatial resolution can be derived by various downscaling methods using historical and real-time meteorological observations but, particularly in low-income countries, the outputs are limited by the lack of ground data at the local level. In many of these countries, a negative trend in the number of meteorological stations as compared as to before 2000 is evident, while remotely-sensed imagery becomes more and more available at high spatial and temporal resolution. The final consequence is that climate change policy options in the developing world are greatly jeopardized.}, }
@article {pmid18686229, year = {2006}, author = {Aron, JL}, title = {Barriers to use of geospatial data for adaptation to climate change and variability: case studies in public health.}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {11-16}, doi = {10.4081/gh.2006.277}, pmid = {18686229}, issn = {1970-7096}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Disasters ; Disease Outbreaks ; Facility Design and Construction/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Forecasting ; *Geographic Information Systems ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Malaria/epidemiology ; *Public Health ; Supreme Court Decisions ; United States ; }, abstract = {This paper presents two case studies of the barriers to the use of geospatial data in the context of public health adaptation to climate change and variability. The first case study is on the hazards of coastal zone development in the United States with the main emphasis on Hurricane Katrina. An important barrier to the use of geospatial data is that the legal system does not support restrictions on land use intended to protect the coastal zone. Economic interests to develop New Orleans and the Mississippi River, both over the long term and the short term, had the effect of increasing the impact of the hurricane. The second case study is epidemics of climate-sensitive diseases with the main emphasis on malaria in Africa. Limits to model accuracy may present a problem in using climate data for an early warning system, and some geographic locations are likely to be more suitable than others. Costs of the system, including the costs of errors, may also inhibit implementation. Deriving societal benefits from geospatial data requires an understanding of the particular decision contexts and organizational processes in which knowledge is developed and used. The data by themselves will not usually generate a societal response. Scientists working in applications should develop partnerships to address the use of geospatial data for societal benefit.}, }
@article {pmid18684132, year = {2008}, author = {Adams, RA and Hayes, MA}, title = {Water availability and successful lactation by bats as related to climate change in arid regions of western North America.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {77}, number = {6}, pages = {1115-1121}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01447.x}, pmid = {18684132}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Chiroptera/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humidity ; Lactation/*physiology ; North America ; Temperature ; *Water ; }, abstract = {1. Climate change in North America is happening at an accelerated rate, reducing availability of water resources for bats and other wildlife that require it for successful reproduction. 2. We test the water-needy lactation hypotheses directly by tracking the drinking habitats of individual lactating and non-reproductive female fringed myotis at an artificial water source located near a maternity roost. 3. We used a submerged passive integrative transponder (PIT) tag reader system designed to track fish to instead record numbers of water source visitations by tagged bats. 4. Of 24 PIT-tagged adult females, 16 (67%) were detected repeatedly by the plate antenna as they passed to drink between 18 July and 28 August 2006. 5. The total number of drinking passes by lactating females (n = 255) were significantly higher than those of non-reproductive adult females (n = 22). Overall, lactating females visited 13 times more often to drink water than did non-reproductive females. On average, lactating females visited six times more often per night. Drinking bouts occurred most frequently just after evening emergence and at dawn. 6. Drinking patterns of non-reproductive females correlated significantly with fluctuating ambient temperature and relative humidity recorded at the water source, whereas lactating females drank extensively regardless of ambient conditions. 7. We provide a mathematical model to predict the rate of decline in bat populations in the arid West in relation to climate change models for the region.}, }
@article {pmid18682360, year = {2009}, author = {Semenov, MA}, title = {Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society, Interface}, volume = {6}, number = {33}, pages = {343-350}, pmid = {18682360}, issn = {1742-5689}, support = {//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Computer Simulation ; England ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; Wales ; }, abstract = {The frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are likely to increase with global warming. However, it is not clear how these events might affect agricultural crops and whether yield losses resulting from severe droughts or heat stress will increase in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyse changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of two impact indices for wheat: the probability of heat stress around flowering and the severity of drought stress. To compute these indices, we used a wheat simulation model combined with high-resolution climate scenarios based on the output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model at 18 sites in England and Wales. Despite higher temperature and lower summer precipitation predicted in the UK for the 2050s, the impact of drought stress on simulated wheat yield is predicted to be smaller than that at present, because wheat will mature earlier in a warmer climate and avoid severe summer drought. However, the probability of heat stress around flowering that might result in considerable yield losses is predicted to increase significantly. Breeding strategies for the future climate might need to focus on wheat varieties tolerant to high temperature rather than to drought.}, }
@article {pmid18676067, year = {2008}, author = {Dowdall, M and Standring, W and Shaw, G and Strand, P}, title = {Will global warming affect soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental radioactivity}, volume = {99}, number = {11}, pages = {1736-1745}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvrad.2008.06.012}, pmid = {18676067}, issn = {0265-931X}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Plants/*metabolism ; Radioisotopes/*metabolism ; Seasons ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Recent assessments of global climate/environmental change are reaching a consensus that global climate change is occurring but there is significant uncertainty over the likely magnitude of this change and its impacts. There is little doubt that all aspects of the natural environment will be impacted to some degree. Soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides has long been a significant topic in radioecology, both for the protection of humans and the environment from the effects of ionising radiation. Even after five decades of research considerable uncertainty exists as to the interplay of key environmental processes in controlling soil-plant transfer. As many of these processes are, to a lesser or greater extent, climate-dependent, it can be argued that climate/environmental change will impact soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides and subsequent transfers in specific environments. This discussion attempts to highlight the possible role of climatic and climate-dependent variables in soil-to-plant transfer processes within the overall predictions of climate/environmental change. The work is speculative, and intended to stimulate debate on a theme that radioecology has either ignored or avoided in recent years.}, }
@article {pmid18675444, year = {2008}, author = {Rustad, LE}, title = {The response of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change: towards an integrated approach.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {404}, number = {2-3}, pages = {222-235}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.04.050}, pmid = {18675444}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Forestry ; Geography ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Accumulating evidence points to an anthropogenic 'fingerprint' on the global climate change that has occurred in the last century. Climate change has, and will continue to have, profound effects on the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. As such, there is a critical need to continue to develop a sound scientific basis for national and international policies regulating carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reflects on the nature of current global change experiments, and provides recommendations for a unified multidisciplinary approach to future research in this dynamic field. These recommendations include: (1) better integration between experiments and models, and amongst experimental, monitoring, and space-for-time studies; (2) stable and increased support for long-term studies and multi-factor experiments; (3) explicit inclusion of biodiversity, disturbance, and extreme events in experiments and models; (4) consideration of timing vs intensity of global change factors in experiments and models; (5) evaluation of potential thresholds or ecosystem 'tipping points'; and (6) increased support for model-model and model-experiment comparisons. These recommendations, which reflect discussions within the TERACC international network of global change scientists, will facilitate the unraveling of the complex direct and indirect effects of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and their components.}, }
@article {pmid18671873, year = {2008}, author = {Bell, ML and Davis, DL and Cifuentes, LA and Krupnick, AJ and Morgenstern, RD and Thurston, GD}, title = {Ancillary human health benefits of improved air quality resulting from climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Environmental health : a global access science source}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {41}, pmid = {18671873}, issn = {1476-069X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/adverse effects/*prevention &amp; control ; *Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies can provide ancillary benefits in terms of short-term improvements in air quality and associated health benefits. Several studies have analyzed the ancillary impacts of GHG policies for a variety of locations, pollutants, and policies. In this paper we review the existing evidence on ancillary health benefits relating to air pollution from various GHG strategies and provide a framework for such analysis.<br><br>METHODS: We evaluate techniques used in different stages of such research for estimation of: (1) changes in air pollutant concentrations; (2) avoided adverse health endpoints; and (3) economic valuation of health consequences. The limitations and merits of various methods are examined. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for ancillary benefits analysis and related research gaps in the relevant disciplines.<br><br>RESULTS: We found that to date most assessments have focused their analysis more heavily on one aspect of the framework (e.g., economic analysis). While a wide range of methods was applied to various policies and regions, results from multiple studies provide strong evidence that the short-term public health and economic benefits of ancillary benefits related to GHG mitigation strategies are substantial. Further, results of these analyses are likely to be underestimates because there are a number of important unquantified health and economic endpoints.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Remaining challenges include integrating the understanding of the relative toxicity of particulate matter by components or sources, developing better estimates of public health and environmental impacts on selected sub-populations, and devising new methods for evaluating heretofore unquantified and non-monetized benefits.}, }
@article {pmid18669853, year = {2008}, author = {Running, SW}, title = {Climate change. Ecosystem disturbance, carbon, and climate.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {321}, number = {5889}, pages = {652-653}, doi = {10.1126/science.1159607}, pmid = {18669853}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Atmosphere ; *Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fires ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insecta ; *Models, Theoretical ; Photosynthesis ; Seasons ; Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid18669851, year = {2008}, author = {Flückiger, J}, title = {Climate change. Did you say "fast"?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {321}, number = {5889}, pages = {650-651}, doi = {10.1126/science.1159821}, pmid = {18669851}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid20040988, year = {2008}, author = {Pandve, HT}, title = {Global initiatives to prevent climate change.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {96-97}, doi = {10.4103/0019-5278.43270}, pmid = {20040988}, issn = {1998-3670}, }
@article {pmid18665266, year = {2008}, author = {Maibach, EW and Chadwick, A and McBride, D and Chuk, M and Ebi, KL and Balbus, J}, title = {Climate change and local public health in the United States: preparedness, programs and perceptions of local public health department directors.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {e2838}, pmid = {18665266}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate ; Disaster Planning ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health ; Health Policy ; Hospitals ; Humans ; Local Government ; Perception ; Program Development ; Public Health/methods ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; United States ; }, abstract = {While climate change is inherently a global problem, its public health impacts will be experienced most acutely at the local and regional level, with some jurisdictions likely to be more burdened than others. The public health infrastructure in the U.S. is organized largely as an interlocking set of public agencies at the federal, state and local level, with lead responsibility for each city or county often residing at the local level. To understand how directors of local public health departments view and are responding to climate change as a public health issue, we conducted a telephone survey with 133 randomly selected local health department directors, representing a 61% response rate. A majority of respondents perceived climate change to be a problem in their jurisdiction, a problem they viewed as likely to become more common or severe over the next 20 years. Only a small minority of respondents, however, had yet made climate change adaptation or prevention a top priority for their health department. This discrepancy between problem recognition and programmatic responses may be due, in part, to several factors: most respondents felt personnel in their health department--and other key stakeholders in their community--had a lack of knowledge about climate change; relatively few respondents felt their own health department, their state health department, or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had the necessary expertise to help them create an effective mitigation or adaptation plan for their jurisdiction; and most respondents felt that their health department needed additional funding, staff and staff training to respond effectively to climate change. These data make clear that climate change adaptation and prevention are not currently major activities at most health departments, and that most, if not all, local health departments will require assistance in making this transition. We conclude by making the case that, through their words and actions, local health departments and their staff can and should play a role in alerting members of their community about the prospect of public health impacts from climate change in their jurisdiction.}, }
@article {pmid18665231, year = {2008}, author = {Ospina-Alvarez, N and Piferrer, F}, title = {Temperature-dependent sex determination in fish revisited: prevalence, a single sex ratio response pattern, and possible effects of climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {e2837}, pmid = {18665231}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Temperature ; Climate ; Ecology ; Environment ; Female ; Fishes ; Genotype ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Phylogeny ; *Sex Determination Processes ; Sex Factors ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In gonochoristic vertebrates, sex determination mechanisms can be classified as genotypic (GSD) or temperature-dependent (TSD). Some cases of TSD in fish have been questioned, but the prevalent view is that TSD is very common in this group of animals, with three different response patterns to temperature.<br><br>We analyzed field and laboratory data for the 59 fish species where TSD has been explicitly or implicitly claimed so far. For each species, we compiled data on the presence or absence of sex chromosomes and determined if the sex ratio response was obtained within temperatures that the species experiences in the wild. If so, we studied whether this response was statistically significant. We found evidence that many cases of observed sex ratio shifts in response to temperature reveal thermal alterations of an otherwise predominately GSD mechanism rather than the presence of TSD. We also show that in those fish species that actually have TSD, sex ratio response to increasing temperatures invariably results in highly male-biased sex ratios, and that even small changes of just 1-2 degrees C can significantly alter the sex ratio from 1:1 (males:females) up to 3:1 in both freshwater and marine species.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate that TSD in fish is far less widespread than currently believed, suggesting that TSD is clearly the exception in fish sex determination. Further, species with TSD exhibit only one general sex ratio response pattern to temperature. However, the viability of some fish populations with TSD can be compromised through alterations in their sex ratios as a response to temperature fluctuations of the magnitude predicted by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18664424, year = {2008}, author = {Keith, DA and Akçakaya, HR and Thuiller, W and Midgley, GF and Pearson, RG and Phillips, SJ and Regan, HM and Araújo, MB and Rebelo, TG}, title = {Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {560-563}, pmid = {18664424}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; *Plants ; Population Dynamics ; South Africa ; Stochastic Processes ; }, abstract = {Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18664421, year = {2008}, author = {Ohlemüller, R and Anderson, BJ and Araújo, MB and Butchart, SH and Kudrna, O and Ridgely, RS and Thomas, CD}, title = {The coincidence of climatic and species rarity: high risk to small-range species from climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {568-572}, pmid = {18664421}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Birds ; *Butterflies ; *Climate ; Extinction, Biological ; Geography ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Why do areas with high numbers of small-range species occur where they do? We found that, for butterfly and plant species in Europe, and for bird species in the Western Hemisphere, such areas coincide with regions that have rare climates, and are higher and colder areas than surrounding regions. Species with small range sizes also tend to occur in climatically diverse regions, where species are likely to have been buffered from extinction in the past. We suggest that the centres of high small-range species richness we examined predominantly represent interglacial relict areas where cold-adapted species have been able to survive unusually warm periods in the last ca 10000 years. We show that the rare climates that occur in current centres of species rarity will shrink disproportionately under future climate change, potentially leading to high vulnerability for many of the species they contain.}, }
@article {pmid18664419, year = {2008}, author = {Monahan, WB and Hijmans, RJ}, title = {Ecophysiological constraints shape autumn migratory response to climate change in the North American field sparrow.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {595-598}, pmid = {18664419}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Sparrows/*physiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Our ability to accurately forecast species' geographical responses to climate change requires knowledge of the proximate and ultimate drivers of their distribution. Here, we consider the ecophysiological and demographic determinants of the distribution of a partial migrant, the North American field sparrow, Spizella pusilla. From 1940 to 1963, the field sparrow extended its winter northern range margin 222 km polewards. Such expansion was coincident with not only a geographical expansion into suitable breeding habitats, but also a decrease in mean abundance across sites occupied during the winter surveys. Combined, these trends suggest that declining populations along the expansion front either stopped migrating or altered their autumn migration. The poleward expansion was not coincident with climatically induced decreases in peak metabolic energy demand, but it did track increases in ecosystem net primary productivity. After 1963, the species' lower lethal temperature prevented further poleward movement. These findings show how different ecophysiological constraints can interact to change migration and distribution in a demographically declining species.}, }
@article {pmid18664418, year = {2008}, author = {Morin, X and Lechowicz, MJ}, title = {Contemporary perspectives on the niche that can improve models of species range shifts under climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {573-576}, pmid = {18664418}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Pioneering efforts to predict shifts in species distribution under climate change used simple models based on the correlation between contemporary environmental factors and distributions. These models make predictions at coarse spatial scales and assume the constancy of present correlations between environment and distribution. Adaptive management of climate change impacts requires models that can make more robust predictions at finer spatio-temporal scales by accounting for processes that actually affect species distribution on heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models of the distribution of both species and vegetation types have begun to emerge to meet these needs. We review these developments and highlight how recent advances in our understanding of relationships among the niche concept, species diversity and community assembly point the way towards more effective models for the impacts of global change on species distribution and community diversity.}, }
@article {pmid18664414, year = {2008}, author = {Hannah, L and Dave, R and Lowry, PP and Andelman, S and Andrianarisata, M and Andriamaro, L and Cameron, A and Hijmans, R and Kremen, C and Mackinnon, J and Randrianasolo, HH and Andriambololonera, S and Razafimpahanana, A and Randriamahazo, H and Randrianarisoa, J and Razafinjatovo, P and Raxworthy, C and Schatz, GE and Tadross, M and Wilmé, L}, title = {Climate change adaptation for conservation in Madagascar.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {590-594}, pmid = {18664414}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Madagascar ; }, }
@article {pmid18655575, year = {2008}, author = {Wang, Y and Zhou, GS and Jia, BR and Na, JH}, title = {[Climate change characteristics in Chinese boreal forest region from 1954 to 2005].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {942-948}, pmid = {18655575}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Ecology/methods/trends ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {In this paper, the change characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in Chinese boreal forest (Larix gmelinii) region from 1954 to 2005 were analyzed, based on the data from eight meteorological stations. The results showed that from 1954 to 2005, the mean annual air temperature in the region increased in a rate of 0.38 degrees C x (10 a)(-1), being significantly higher than the global average value during recent 50 years (0.13 degrees C x (10 a) (-1)). The increasing trend of the temperature appeared in all four seasons, but was only significant in winter and spring (P <0.01). Both the maximum and the minimum mean annual temperatures increased significantly (P <0.01), and the increasing rate was about 0.37 degrees C x (10 a)(-1) and 0.54 degrees C x (10 a)(-1), respectively. The annual precipitation varied obviously among years, but no significant trend was observed at yearly and seasonal scales. Precipitation days increased but not significantly in spring, autumn and winter, while decreased significantly in summer (P <0.05). The precipitation intensity increased in all four seasons, and was only significant in summer (P <0.05) and winter (P <0.01).}, }
@article {pmid18654293, year = {2007}, author = {}, title = {Combating climate change.}, journal = {Nature nanotechnology}, volume = {2}, number = {6}, pages = {325}, doi = {10.1038/nnano.2007.168}, pmid = {18654293}, issn = {1748-3395}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Electric Power Supplies/*trends ; *Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Manufactured Materials ; Nanotechnology/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid18653892, year = {2008}, author = {Carpenter, KE and Abrar, M and Aeby, G and Aronson, RB and Banks, S and Bruckner, A and Chiriboga, A and Cortés, J and Delbeek, JC and Devantier, L and Edgar, GJ and Edwards, AJ and Fenner, D and Guzmán, HM and Hoeksema, BW and Hodgson, G and Johan, O and Licuanan, WY and Livingstone, SR and Lovell, ER and Moore, JA and Obura, DO and Ochavillo, D and Polidoro, BA and Precht, WF and Quibilan, MC and Reboton, C and Richards, ZT and Rogers, AD and Sanciangco, J and Sheppard, A and Sheppard, C and Smith, J and Stuart, S and Turak, E and Veron, JE and Wallace, C and Weil, E and Wood, E}, title = {One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk from climate change and local impacts.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {321}, number = {5888}, pages = {560-563}, doi = {10.1126/science.1159196}, pmid = {18653892}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa/classification/growth &amp; development ; Caribbean Region ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Greenhouse Effect ; Indian Ocean ; Pacific Ocean ; Risk Assessment ; *Seawater ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The conservation status of 845 zooxanthellate reef-building coral species was assessed by using International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List Criteria. Of the 704 species that could be assigned conservation status, 32.8% are in categories with elevated risk of extinction. Declines in abundance are associated with bleaching and diseases driven by elevated sea surface temperatures, with extinction risk further exacerbated by local-scale anthropogenic disturbances. The proportion of corals threatened with extinction has increased dramatically in recent decades and exceeds that of most terrestrial groups. The Caribbean has the largest proportion of corals in high extinction risk categories, whereas the Coral Triangle (western Pacific) has the highest proportion of species in all categories of elevated extinction risk. Our results emphasize the widespread plight of coral reefs and the urgent need to enact conservation measures.}, }
@article {pmid18653855, year = {2008}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {U.S. environmental policy. EPA calls for more studies on health risks of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {321}, number = {5888}, pages = {477}, doi = {10.1126/science.321.5888.477a}, pmid = {18653855}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Budgets ; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S./economics ; *Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Health ; Humans ; Population Surveillance ; United States ; *United States Environmental Protection Agency ; }, }
@article {pmid18653639, year = {2008}, author = {Guillebaud, J and Hayes, P}, title = {Population growth and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {337}, number = {}, pages = {a576}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.39575.691343.80}, pmid = {18653639}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; }, }
@article {pmid18648541, year = {2008}, author = {Loarie, SR and Carter, BE and Hayhoe, K and McMahon, S and Moe, R and Knight, CA and Ackerly, DD}, title = {Climate change and the future of California's endemic flora.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {3}, number = {6}, pages = {e2502}, pmid = {18648541}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; California ; *Climate ; Conservation of Energy Resources/trends ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plant Development ; Plants/classification ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; Trees/classification/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The flora of California, a global biodiversity hotspot, includes 2387 endemic plant taxa. With anticipated climate change, we project that up to 66% will experience >80% reductions in range size within a century. These results are comparable with other studies of fewer species or just samples of a region's endemics. Projected reductions depend on the magnitude of future emissions and on the ability of species to disperse from their current locations. California's varied terrain could cause species to move in very different directions, breaking up present-day floras. However, our projections also identify regions where species undergoing severe range reductions may persist. Protecting these potential future refugia and facilitating species dispersal will be essential to maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18642548, year = {2008}, author = {Broome, J}, title = {The ethics of climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {298}, number = {6}, pages = {96-100, 102}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0608-96}, pmid = {18642548}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {Cost-Benefit Analysis/ethics ; Disasters ; Economics ; *Ethics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice Cover ; *Social Responsibility ; }, }
@article {pmid18635786, year = {2008}, author = {Huber, M}, title = {Climate change. A hotter greenhouse?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {321}, number = {5887}, pages = {353-354}, doi = {10.1126/science.1161170}, pmid = {18635786}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18635780, year = {2008}, author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Hughes, L and McIntyre, S and Lindenmayer, DB and Parmesan, C and Possingham, HP and Thomas, CD}, title = {Ecology. Assisted colonization and rapid climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {321}, number = {5887}, pages = {345-346}, doi = {10.1126/science.1157897}, pmid = {18635780}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecology/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Geography ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid18635763, year = {2008}, author = {Malakoff, D}, title = {Climate change. Bush takes a final swipe, and salute, at CO2 emission curbs.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {321}, number = {5887}, pages = {324-325}, doi = {10.1126/science.321.5887.324a}, pmid = {18635763}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18634803, year = {2008}, author = {Ogden, NH and Bigras-Poulin, M and Hanincová, K and Maarouf, A and O'Callaghan, CJ and Kurtenbach, K}, title = {Projected effects of climate change on tick phenology and fitness of pathogens transmitted by the North American tick Ixodes scapularis.}, journal = {Journal of theoretical biology}, volume = {254}, number = {3}, pages = {621-632}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.06.020}, pmid = {18634803}, issn = {1095-8541}, mesh = {Anaplasma phagocytophilum/growth &amp; development/pathogenicity ; Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/*growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Borrelia burgdorferi/growth &amp; development/pathogenicity ; Disease Reservoirs ; Ehrlichiosis/transmission/veterinary ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ixodes/*growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Lyme Disease/transmission/veterinary ; *Models, Biological ; Peromyscus/parasitology ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Ixodes scapularis is the principal tick vector of the Lyme borreliosis agent Borrelia burgdorferi and other tick-borne zoonoses in northeastern North America. The degree of seasonal synchrony of nymphal and larval ticks may be important in influencing the basic reproductive number of the pathogens transmitted by I. scapularis. Because the seasonal phenology of tick vectors is partly controlled by ambient temperature, climate and climate change could shape the population biology of tick-borne pathogens. We used projected monthly normal temperatures, obtained from the second version of the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) under emissions scenario A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for a site in southern Ontario, Canada, to simulate the phenology of I. scapularis in a mathematical model. The simulated seasonal abundance of ticks then determined transmission of three candidate pathogens amongst a population of white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Fitness of the different pathogens, in terms of resilience to changes in tick and rodent mortality, minima for infection duration, transmission efficiency and particularly any additional mortality of rodents specifically associated with infection, varied according to the seasonal pattern of immature tick activity, which was different under the temperature conditions projected for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. In each case, pathogens that were long-lived, highly transmissible and had little impact on rodent mortality rates were the fittest. However, under the seasonal tick activity patterns projected for the 2020s and 2050s, the fitness of pathogens that are shorter-lived, less efficiently transmitted, and more pathogenic to their natural hosts, increased. Therefore, climate change may affect the frequency and distribution of I. scapularis-borne pathogens and alter their evolutionary trajectories.}, }
@article {pmid18630790, year = {2008}, author = {Shah, A}, title = {Global warming, climate change, air pollution and allergic asthma.}, journal = {The Indian journal of chest diseases &amp; allied sciences}, volume = {50}, number = {3}, pages = {259-261}, pmid = {18630790}, issn = {0377-9343}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Asthma/*etiology ; *Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Respiratory Hypersensitivity/*etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid18630296, year = {2008}, author = {Lupo, AR}, title = {The last word in anthropogenic global warming: Find alternative energy sources.}, journal = {Missouri medicine}, volume = {105}, number = {3}, pages = {186; discussion 187}, pmid = {18630296}, issn = {0026-6620}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; Climate ; *Energy-Generating Resources ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid18629331, year = {2008}, author = {Schmidt, CW}, title = {In hot water: global warming takes a toll on coral reefs.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {116}, number = {7}, pages = {A292-A299}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.116-a292}, pmid = {18629331}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa/microbiology/physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; *Ecosystem ; Eukaryota ; Fishes ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Marine Biology ; Oceans and Seas ; }, }
@article {pmid18627214, year = {2008}, author = {De Munck, CS and Hutchings, TR and Moffat, AJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change and establishing a vegetation cover on water erosion of contaminated spoils for two contrasting United Kingdom regional climates: a case study approach.}, journal = {Integrated environmental assessment and management}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {443-455}, doi = {10.1897/IEAM_2008-016.1}, pmid = {18627214}, issn = {1551-3777}, mesh = {*Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis/toxicity ; Geography ; Geologic Sediments/analysis ; Models, Theoretical ; Plants/drug effects ; United Kingdom ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {This study examines how pollutant linkage of contaminants will be influenced by predicted changes in precipitation and subsequent rainfall erosion of soils and spoils in the United Kingdom during the 21st century. Two contrasting regional climates were used in conjunction with 2 extreme emissions scenarios (low and high greenhouse gas emissions) to run the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation 2 (RUSLE2) model for a case study that represents a high risk of pollutant linkage through water erosion. Results for the 2 scenarios and the 2 regions showed a significant and gradual increase in erosion rates with time as a consequence of climate change, by up to 32% for the southwest and 6.6% for the southeast regions by the 2080s. Revegetation of the site showed a dramatic reduction in predicted future amounts of sediment production and subsequent contaminant movement, well below existing levels. Limitations and future improvements of the methodology are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid18578024, year = {2008}, author = {Moore, TG}, title = {Global warming. The good, the bad, the ugly and the efficient.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {9 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S41-5}, pmid = {18578024}, issn = {1469-3178}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Bioelectric Energy Sources ; Carbon Dioxide ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Ecosystem ; European Union ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid18578020, year = {2008}, author = {Thomas, CD and Ohlemüller, R and Anderson, B and Hickler, T and Miller, PA and Sykes, MT and Williams, JW}, title = {Exporting the ecological effects of climate change. Developed and developing countries will suffer the consequences of climate change, but differ in both their responsibility and how badly it will affect their ecosystems.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {9 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {S28-33}, pmid = {18578020}, issn = {1469-3178}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Developed Countries ; *Developing Countries ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid18623953, year = {2008}, author = {Brown, P}, title = {Climate change. Polar express.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {299}, number = {1}, pages = {18, 20}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0708-18}, pmid = {18623953}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid18615117, year = {2008}, author = {Bardgett, RD and Freeman, C and Ostle, NJ}, title = {Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.}, journal = {The ISME journal}, volume = {2}, number = {8}, pages = {805-814}, doi = {10.1038/ismej.2008.58}, pmid = {18615117}, issn = {1751-7370}, mesh = {Carbon/*metabolism ; *Climate ; *Environmental Microbiology ; Plants/metabolism ; }, abstract = {There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks.}, }
@article {pmid18613900, year = {2008}, author = {Tong, S and Mackenzie, J and Pitman, AJ and FitzGerald, G and Nicholls, N and Selvey, L}, title = {Global climate change: time to mainstream health risks and their prevention on the medical research and policy agenda.}, journal = {Internal medicine journal}, volume = {38}, number = {6}, pages = {445-447}, doi = {10.1111/j.1445-5994.2008.01688.x}, pmid = {18613900}, issn = {1445-5994}, mesh = {Biomedical Research/*methods ; *Climate ; Environmental Health/*standards ; *Environmental Illness/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Global Health ; Humans ; Morbidity/trends ; *Practice Guidelines as Topic ; }, abstract = {Climate change is unequivocal. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change has recently projected that global average surface temperature will increase by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees C by 2100. Anthropogenic warming during the twenty-first century would be much greater than that observed in the twentieth century. Most of the warming observed over the last six decades is attributable to human activities. Climate change is already affecting, and will increasingly have profound effects on human health and well-being. Therefore, there is an urgent need for societies to take both preemptive and adaptive actions to protect human populations from adverse health consequences of climate change. It is time to mainstream health risks and their prevention in relation to the effects of climate change on the medical research and policy agenda.}, }
@article {pmid18606995, year = {2008}, author = {Grime, JP and Fridley, JD and Askew, AP and Thompson, K and Hodgson, JG and Bennett, CR}, title = {Long-term resistance to simulated climate change in an infertile grassland.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {105}, number = {29}, pages = {10028-10032}, pmid = {18606995}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Biomass ; Climate ; Disasters ; *Ecosystem ; England ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Rain ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate shifts over this century are widely expected to alter the structure and functioning of temperate plant communities. However, long-term climate experiments in natural vegetation are rare and largely confined to systems with the capacity for rapid compositional change. In unproductive, grazed grassland at Buxton in northern England (U.K.), one of the longest running experimental manipulations of temperature and rainfall reveals vegetation highly resistant to climate shifts maintained over 13 yr. Here we document this resistance in the form of: (i) constancy in the relative abundance of growth forms and maintained dominance by long-lived, slow-growing grasses, sedges, and small forbs; (ii) immediate but minor shifts in the abundance of several species that have remained stable over the course of the experiment; (iii) no change in productivity in response to climate treatments with the exception of reduction from chronic summer drought; and (iv) only minor species losses in response to drought and winter heating. Overall, compositional changes induced by 13-yr exposure to climate regime change were less than short-term fluctuations in species abundances driven by interannual climate fluctuations. The lack of progressive compositional change, coupled with the long-term historical persistence of unproductive grasslands in northern England, suggests the community at Buxton possesses a stabilizing capacity that leads to long-term persistence of dominant species. Unproductive ecosystems provide a refuge for many threatened plants and animals and perform a diversity of ecosystem services. Our results support the view that changing land use and overexploitation rather than climate change per se constitute the primary threats to these fragile ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid18606092, year = {2008}, author = {Clearfield, M}, title = {Another inconvenient truth: combining the risks from obesity and metabolic syndrome with global warming.}, journal = {Current atherosclerosis reports}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {273-276}, pmid = {18606092}, issn = {1534-6242}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Biomarkers/blood ; C-Reactive Protein ; Cholesterol, LDL/blood ; Coronary Disease/diagnosis/*epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology/etiology ; *Global Warming ; Humans ; Hypercholesterolemia/blood/drug therapy ; Metabolic Syndrome/*epidemiology/etiology ; Obesity/complications/*epidemiology ; Prevalence ; United States/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid18599745, year = {2008}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. California emissions plan to explore use of offsets.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {321}, number = {5885}, pages = {23}, doi = {10.1126/science.321.5885.23}, pmid = {18599745}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18597918, year = {2009}, author = {Feroz, EH and Raab, RL and Ulleberg, GT and Alsharif, K}, title = {Global warming and environmental production efficiency ranking of the Kyoto Protocol nations.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {90}, number = {2}, pages = {1178-1183}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.05.006}, pmid = {18597918}, issn = {0301-4797}, mesh = {*Environment ; *International Cooperation ; Models, Theoretical ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {This paper analyzes the United Nations Organization's Kyoto Protocol nations to address two questions. First, what are the environmental production efficiency rankings of these nations? Second, is there a relationship between a nation's ratification status and its environmental production efficiency ranking? Our findings suggest that the nations that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol are more likely to be environmentally production efficient as compared to the nations that have not ratified the Protocol.}, }
@article {pmid18596798, year = {2008}, author = {Riebesell, U}, title = {Climate change: Acid test for marine biodiversity.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {454}, number = {7200}, pages = {46-47}, doi = {10.1038/454046a}, pmid = {18596798}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; *Biodiversity ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Mediterranean Sea ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Volcanic Eruptions ; }, }
@article {pmid18595840, year = {2008}, author = {Mitchell, NJ and Kearney, MR and Nelson, NJ and Porter, WP}, title = {Predicting the fate of a living fossil: how will global warming affect sex determination and hatching phenology in tuatara?.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {275}, number = {1648}, pages = {2185-2193}, pmid = {18595840}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Computer Simulation ; *Extinction, Biological ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Nesting Behavior/physiology ; Reptiles/*physiology ; Sex Differentiation/*physiology ; Sex Ratio ; }, abstract = {How will climate change affect species' reproduction and subsequent survival? In many egg-laying reptiles, the sex of offspring is determined by the temperature experienced during a critical period of embryonic development (temperature-dependent sex determination, TSD). Increasing air temperatures are likely to skew offspring sex ratios in the absence of evolutionary or plastic adaptation, hence we urgently require means for predicting the future distributions of species with TSD. Here we develop a mechanistic model that demonstrates how climate, soil and topography interact with physiology and nesting behaviour to determine sex ratios of tuatara, cold-climate reptiles from New Zealand with an unusual developmental biology. Under extreme regional climate change, all-male clutches would hatch at 100% of current nest sites of the rarest species, Sphenodon guntheri, by the mid-2080s. We show that tuatara could behaviourally compensate for the male-biasing effects of warmer air temperatures by nesting later in the season or selecting shaded nest sites. Later nesting is, however, an unlikely response to global warming, as many oviparous species are nesting earlier as the climate warms. Our approach allows the assessment of the thermal suitability of current reserves and future translocation sites for tuatara, and can be readily modified to predict climatic impacts on any species with TSD.}, }
@article {pmid19876469, year = {2008}, author = {Thakur, J}, title = {Protecting health from climate change.}, journal = {Indian journal of community medicine : official publication of Indian Association of Preventive &amp; Social Medicine}, volume = {33}, number = {3}, pages = {139-140}, pmid = {19876469}, issn = {1998-3581}, }
@article {pmid18584909, year = {2008}, author = {Smith, CR and De Leo, FC and Bernardino, AF and Sweetman, AK and Arbizu, PM}, title = {Abyssal food limitation, ecosystem structure and climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {23}, number = {9}, pages = {518-528}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2008.05.002}, pmid = {18584909}, issn = {0169-5347}, mesh = {Animals ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The abyssal seafloor covers more than 50% of the Earth and is postulated to be both a reservoir of biodiversity and a source of important ecosystem services. We show that ecosystem structure and function in the abyss are strongly modulated by the quantity and quality of detrital food material sinking from the surface ocean. Climate change and human activities (e.g. successful ocean fertilization) will alter patterns of sinking food flux to the deep ocean, substantially impacting the structure, function and biodiversity of abyssal ecosystems. Abyssal ecosystem response thus must be considered in assessments of the environmental impacts of global warming and ocean fertilization.}, }
@article {pmid18583684, year = {2008}, author = {Gill, M}, title = {Why should doctors be interested in climate change?.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {336}, number = {7659}, pages = {1506}, pmid = {18583684}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Life Style ; Physicians/*psychology ; Professional Practice ; }, }
@article {pmid18583658, year = {2008}, author = {Myr, R}, title = {Climate change: Breastfeeding tackles both obesity and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {336}, number = {7659}, pages = {1454}, pmid = {18583658}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Breast Feeding ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Obesity/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid18583657, year = {2008}, author = {Smith, B}, title = {Climate change: Why so many open windows?.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {336}, number = {7659}, pages = {1454}, pmid = {18583657}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {England ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hospitals/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ventilation/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid18581807, year = {2008}, author = {MacCracken, MC}, title = {Prospects for future climate change and the reasons for early action.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {58}, number = {6}, pages = {735-786}, doi = {10.3155/1047-3289.58.6.735}, pmid = {18581807}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Atmosphere/analysis ; Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; Climate ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Public Policy ; United States ; }, abstract = {Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The warming of approximately 0.1-0.2 degrees C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals. The global average temperature is already approximately 0.8 degrees C above its preindustrial level, and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5-1 degrees C as equilibrium is re-established. Warming has been and will be greater in mid and high latitudes compared with low latitudes, over land compared with oceans, and at night compared with day. As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 degrees C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to result in severe impacts on key societal and environmental support systems. Present estimates are that limiting the increase in global average surface temperature to no more than 2-2.5 degrees C above its 1750 value of approximately 15 degrees C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change. Accomplishing this will require reducing emissions sharply by 2050 and to near zero by 2100. This can only be achieved if: (1) developed nations move rapidly to demonstrate that a modem society can function without reliance on technologies that release carbon dioxide (CO2) and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and (2) if developing nations act in the near-term to sharply limit their non-CO2 emissions while minimizing growth in CO2 emissions, and then in the long-term join with the developed nations to reduce all emissions as cost-effective technologies are developed.}, }
@article {pmid18581806, year = {2008}, author = {Edgerton, S}, title = {Prospects for future climate change and the reasons for early action.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {58}, number = {6}, pages = {730-734}, doi = {10.3155/1047-3289.58.6.730}, pmid = {18581806}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Public Policy ; United Nations ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid18577088, year = {2008}, author = {Pyke, CR and Thomas, R and Porter, RD and Hellmann, JJ and Dukes, JS and Lodge, DM and Chavarria, G}, title = {Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {585-592}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00956.x}, pmid = {18577088}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Bioelectric Energy Sources ; Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends ; Demography ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Phalaris/physiology ; Poaceae/physiology ; *Public Policy ; Rodentia/physiology ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.}, }
@article {pmid18577086, year = {2008}, author = {Bierwagen, BG and Thomas, R and Kane, A}, title = {Capacity of management plans for aquatic invasive species to integrate climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {568-574}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00954.x}, pmid = {18577086}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods/*standards ; *Greenhouse Effect ; United States ; *Water ; }, abstract = {The consequences of climate change will affect aquatic ecosystems, including aquatic invasive species (AIS) that are already affecting these ecosystems. Effects on AIS include range shifts and more frequent overwintering of species. These effects may create new challenges for AIS management. We examined available U.S. state AIS management plans to assess each program's capacity to adapt to climate-change effects. We scored the adaptive capacity of AIS management plans on the basis of whether they addressed potential impacts resulting from climate change; demonstrated a capacity to adapt to changing conditions; provided for monitoring strategies; provided for plan revisions; and described funding for implementation. Most plans did not mention climate change specifically, but some did acknowledge climatic boundaries of species and ecosystem sensitivities to changing conditions. Just under half the plans mentioned changing environmental conditions as a factor, most frequently as part of research activities. Activities associated with monitoring showed the highest capacity to include information on changing conditions, and future revisions to management plans are likely to be the easiest avenue through which to address climate-change effects on AIS management activities. Our results show that programs have the capacity to incorporate information about climate-change effects and that the adaptive-management framework may be an appropriate approach.}, }
@article {pmid18577084, year = {2008}, author = {Rahel, FJ and Bierwagen, B and Taniguchi, Y}, title = {Managing aquatic species of conservation concern in the face of climate change and invasive species.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {551-561}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00953.x}, pmid = {18577084}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Demography ; Fishes ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Human Activities ; Invertebrates ; Mammals ; Models, Biological ; Plants ; }, abstract = {The difficult task of managing species of conservation concern is likely to become even more challenging due to the interaction of climate change and invasive species. In addition to direct effects on habitat quality, climate change will foster the expansion of invasive species into new areas and magnify the effects of invasive species already present by altering competitive dominance, increasing predation rates, and enhancing the virulence of diseases. In some cases parapatric species may expand into new habitats and have detrimental effects that are similar to those of invading non-native species. The traditional strategy of isolating imperiled species in reserves may not be adequate if habitat conditions change beyond historic ranges or in ways that favor invasive species. The consequences of climate change will require a more active management paradigm that includes implementing habitat improvements that reduce the effects of climate change and creating migration barriers that prevent an influx of invasive species. Other management actions that should be considered include providing dispersal corridors that allow species to track environmental changes, translocating species to newly suitable habitats where migration is not possible, and developing action plans for the early detection and eradication of new invasive species.}, }
@article {pmid18577082, year = {2008}, author = {Hellmann, JJ and Byers, JE and Bierwagen, BG and Dukes, JS}, title = {Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {534-543}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x}, pmid = {18577082}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Demography ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Human Activities ; }, abstract = {Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.}, }
@article {pmid18577081, year = {2008}, author = {Rahel, FJ and Olden, JD}, title = {Assessing the effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {521-533}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00950.x}, pmid = {18577081}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fishes/physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Invertebrates/physiology ; Plants ; Sodium Chloride/chemistry ; Temperature ; *Water/chemistry ; }, abstract = {Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid18577080, year = {2008}, author = {Bierwagen, BG and Rahel, FJ and Thomas, R}, title = {A synthesis of climate-change effects on aquatic invasive species. Introduction.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {518-520}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00958.x}, pmid = {18577080}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Plants/*metabolism ; Public Policy ; *Water ; }, }
@article {pmid18575394, year = {2008}, author = {Barlow, G}, title = {Nurses feel impact of climate change.}, journal = {Australian nursing journal (July 1993)}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {24-26}, pmid = {18575394}, issn = {1320-3185}, mesh = {Climate ; Clinical Competence ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; *Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Humans ; New South Wales ; *Nurse's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid18575252, year = {2008}, author = {Barczok, M}, title = {[Climate change: effects on bronchial asthma and allergies].}, journal = {MMW Fortschritte der Medizin}, volume = {150}, number = {21}, pages = {35-36}, pmid = {18575252}, issn = {1438-3276}, mesh = {Allergens/adverse effects ; Ambrosia/adverse effects ; Asthma/epidemiology/*etiology ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Germany ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Pollen ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/epidemiology/*etiology ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid18571216, year = {2008}, author = {Aronson, JL and Hailemichael, M and Savin, SM}, title = {Hominid environments at Hadar from paleosol studies in a framework of Ethiopian climate change.}, journal = {Journal of human evolution}, volume = {55}, number = {4}, pages = {532-550}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhevol.2008.04.004}, pmid = {18571216}, issn = {0047-2484}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Isotopes/analysis ; *Climate ; Ethiopia ; Fossils ; Geologic Sediments/*analysis ; History, Ancient ; *Hominidae ; Oxygen Isotopes/analysis ; Rain ; }, abstract = {The amount and seasonal distribution of paleo-rainfall is a major concern of paleoanthropology because they determine the nature of the vegetation and the structure of the ecosystem, particularly in eastern Africa. The delta(18)O and delta(13)C of paleosol carbonates are quantitative proxies of these critical features of the paleoenvironment. The Afar region of Ethiopia lies between the African and Indian summer monsoons, and is prone to profound climate change. In the western Afar, the dominant paleoenvironment of the Hadar Formation during the late Pliocene was a major meandering river's distal low, flat floodplain, on which muds accreted that were continuously transformed into vegetated soils with Bk horizons rich in CaCO(3). The mean delta(13)C of paleosols throughout the Hadar Formation translates to an average vegetative cover across the extensive floodplain of about 30% of the C(4) grasses and 70% of unspecified C(3) plants. The character of the paleosols, such as the one at Locality 333, and their delta(18)O(Carbonate) argue for a highly seasonal rainfall of about twice today's amount, implying that the C(3) plants were mostly sizeable trees and that the biome for Australopithecus afarensis was a grassy woodland. The amount of grasses abruptly increased in the lower Busidima Formation with its early Homo and artifacts to a more open grassy woodland of ca. 50% grasses. However, this transition in delta(13)C is not mirrored in the delta(18)O, which persists at a quite negative average value of -6.4 per thousand over the entire >2-Myr duration of both formations. This value for the carbonate means that the paleosoil water was a quite negative -4.1 per thousand, a significant 5 per thousand more negative than our estimate of modern rain at Hadar. We put the negative delta(18)O of paleo-Hadar's rainfall into an isotopic framework of the dynamic history of climate change in sub-Saharan northern Africa. There have been two end-member climate regimes: (1) an earlier persistently pluvial Pliocene regime, with its strong summer monsoon, as registered in the Hadar Formation; and (2) the modern cyclical, mostly arid regime that began ca. 1Myr ago, which has been punctuated by about ten cyclically predictable brief millennia-long pluvial episodes. The best known pluvial of the latter regime is the latest one, the African Humid Period (AHP), just 9.0-6.5kyr ago, whose delta(18)O(Rainfall) matches that for paleo-Hadar. The known climatological factors that brought on the AHP are probably the same ones that were persistently present for the Afar of the Pliocene. This dynamic rainfall history undoubtedly has influenced hominid occupation of the keystone Afar area at the gateway out of, and into, Africa.}, }
@article {pmid18569628, year = {2008}, author = {O'Neill, MS and Kinney, PL and Cohen, AJ}, title = {Environmental equity in air quality management: local and international implications for human health and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of toxicology and environmental health. Part A}, volume = {71}, number = {9-10}, pages = {570-577}, doi = {10.1080/15287390801997625}, pmid = {18569628}, issn = {1528-7394}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects/analysis ; Climate ; Environmental Exposure/*adverse effects/standards ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Urban Health ; }, abstract = {The health burden of environmental exposures, including ambient air pollution and climate-change-related health impacts, is not equally distributed between or within regions and countries. These inequalities are currently receiving increased attention in environmental research as well as enhanced appreciation in environmental policy, where calls for environmental equity are more frequently heard. The World Health Organization (WHO) 2006 Global Update of the Air Quality Guidelines attempted to address the global-scale inequalities in exposures to air pollution and the burden of diseases due to air pollution. The guidelines stop short, however, of addressing explicitly the inequalities in exposure and adverse health effects within countries and urban areas due to differential distribution of sources of air pollution such as motor vehicles and local industry, and differences in susceptibility to the adverse health effects attributed to air pollution. These inequalities, may, however, be addressed in local air quality and land use management decisions. Locally, community-based participatory research can play an important role in documenting potential inequities and fostering corrective action. Research on environmental inequities will also benefit from current efforts to (1) better understand social determinants of health and (2) apply research evidence to reduce health disparities. Similarly, future research and policy action will benefit from stronger linkages between equity concerns related to health consequences of both air pollution exposure and climate change, since combustion products are important contributors to both of these environmental problems.}, }
@article {pmid18566247, year = {2008}, author = {Steffensen, JP and Andersen, KK and Bigler, M and Clausen, HB and Dahl-Jensen, D and Fischer, H and Goto-Azuma, K and Hansson, M and Johnsen, SJ and Jouzel, J and Masson-Delmotte, V and Popp, T and Rasmussen, SO and Röthlisberger, R and Ruth, U and Stauffer, B and Siggaard-Andersen, ML and Sveinbjörnsdóttir, AE and Svensson, A and White, JW}, title = {High-resolution Greenland ice core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {321}, number = {5889}, pages = {680-684}, doi = {10.1126/science.1157707}, pmid = {18566247}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {The last two abrupt warmings at the onset of our present warm interglacial period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cooling event, were investigated at high temporal resolution from the North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core. The deuterium excess, a proxy of Greenland precipitation moisture source, switched mode within 1 to 3 years over these transitions and initiated a more gradual change (over 50 years) of the Greenland air temperature, as recorded by stable water isotopes. The onsets of both abrupt Greenland warmings were slightly preceded by decreasing Greenland dust deposition, reflecting the wetting of Asian deserts. A northern shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone could be the trigger of these abrupt shifts of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes of 2 to 4 kelvin in Greenland moisture source temperature from one year to the next.}, }
@article {pmid18566095, year = {2008}, author = {Hannah, L}, title = {Protected areas and climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1134}, number = {}, pages = {201-212}, doi = {10.1196/annals.1439.009}, pmid = {18566095}, issn = {0077-8923}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Planning Techniques ; }, abstract = {The study of protected areas and climate change has now spanned two decades. Pioneering work in the late 1980s recognized the potential implications of shifting species range boundaries for static protected areas. Many early recommendations for protected area design were general, emphasizing larger protected areas, buffer zones, and connectivity between reserves. There were limited practical tests of these suggestions. Development of modeling and conservation planning methods in the 1990s allowed more rigorous testing of concepts of reserve and connectivity function in a changing climate. These studies have shown decreasing species representation in existing reserves due to climate change, and the ability of new protected areas to help slow loss of representation in mid-century scenarios. Connectivity on protected area periphery seems more effective than corridors linking protected areas. However, corridors serving other purposes, such as large carnivore movement, may be useful for accommodating species range shifts as well. Assisted migration and ex situ management strategies to complement protected areas are being explored. Finally, in scenarios of the latter half of the century, protected areas and connectivity become increasingly expensive and decreasingly effective, indicating the importance of reducing human-induced climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18566088, year = {2008}, author = {Jeschke, JM and Strayer, DL}, title = {Usefulness of bioclimatic models for studying climate change and invasive species.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1134}, number = {}, pages = {1-24}, doi = {10.1196/annals.1439.002}, pmid = {18566088}, issn = {0077-8923}, mesh = {*Conservation of Natural Resources ; Demography ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Bioclimatic models (also known as envelope models or, more broadly, ecological niche models or species distribution models) are used to predict geographic ranges of organisms as a function of climate. They are widely used to forecast range shifts of organisms due to climate change, predict the eventual ranges of invasive species, infer paleoclimate from data on species occurrences, and so forth. Several statistical techniques (including general linear models, general additive models, climate envelope models, classification and regression trees, and genetic algorithms) have been used in bioclimatic modeling. Recently developed techniques tend to perform better than older techniques, although it is unlikely that any single statistical approach will be optimal for all applications and species. Proponents of bioclimatic models have stressed their apparent predictive power, whereas opponents have identified the following unreasonable model assumptions: biotic interactions are unimportant in determining geographic ranges or are constant over space and time; the genetic and phenotypic composition of species is constant over space and time; and species are unlimited in their dispersal. In spite of these problematic assumptions, bioclimatic models often successfully fit present-day ranges of species. Their ability to forecast the effects of climate change or the spread of invaders has rarely been tested adequately, however, and we urge researchers to tie the evaluation of bioclimatic models more closely to their intended uses.}, }
@article {pmid18565794, year = {2008}, author = {Crabbe, MJ}, title = {Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.}, journal = {Computational biology and chemistry}, volume = {32}, number = {5}, pages = {311-314}, doi = {10.1016/j.compbiolchem.2008.04.001}, pmid = {18565794}, issn = {1476-9271}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.}, }
@article {pmid18561714, year = {2008}, author = {}, title = {Protecting health from climate change--World Health Day.}, journal = {Eastern Mediterranean health journal = La revue de sante de la Mediterranee orientale = al-Majallah al-sihhiyah li-sharq al-mutawassit}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {250-251}, pmid = {18561714}, issn = {1020-3397}, mesh = {Animals ; Diarrhea/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Vectors ; Malaria/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Malnutrition/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Mediterranean Region/epidemiology ; Poverty ; Vulnerable Populations ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid18560572, year = {2008}, author = {Peterson, AT and Stewart, A and Mohamed, KI and Araújo, MB}, title = {Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {3}, number = {6}, pages = {e2441}, pmid = {18560572}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {*Climate ; Ecology ; Europe ; Models, Theoretical ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; }, abstract = {Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species.}, }
@article {pmid18557288, year = {2008}, author = {Bey, T and von Weizsäcker, EU and Koenig, KL}, title = {Global warming: polar bears and people--implications for public health preparedness and disaster medicine: a call to action.}, journal = {Prehospital and disaster medicine}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {101-102}, doi = {10.1017/s1049023x00005690}, pmid = {18557288}, issn = {1049-023X}, mesh = {Animals ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Disaster Medicine ; Disaster Planning/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid18556550, year = {2008}, author = {Canadell, JG and Raupach, MR}, title = {Managing forests for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {320}, number = {5882}, pages = {1456-1457}, doi = {10.1126/science.1155458}, pmid = {18556550}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Carbon ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Forestry ; Sunlight ; *Trees ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Forests currently absorb billions of tons of CO2 globally every year, an economic subsidy worth hundreds of billions of dollars if an equivalent sink had to be created in other ways. Concerns about the permanency of forest carbon stocks, difficulties in quantifying stock changes, and the threat of environmental and socioeconomic impacts of large-scale reforestation programs have limited the uptake of forestry activities in climate policies. With political will and the involvement of tropical regions, forests can contribute to climate change protection through carbon sequestration as well as offering economic, environmental, and sociocultural benefits. A key opportunity in tropical regions is the reduction of carbon emissions from deforestation and degradation.}, }
@article {pmid18556546, year = {2008}, author = {Bonan, GB}, title = {Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {320}, number = {5882}, pages = {1444-1449}, doi = {10.1126/science.1155121}, pmid = {18556546}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Atmosphere ; Carbon ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Effect ; Research ; Temperature ; *Trees ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18556525, year = {2008}, author = {Mervis, J}, title = {Environment. U.S. climate change bill dies, but the energy remains.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {320}, number = {5882}, pages = {1410-1411}, doi = {10.1126/science.320.5882.1410}, pmid = {18556525}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18556307, year = {2008}, author = {Dobson, R}, title = {Obesity and climate change could be tackled together.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {336}, number = {7657}, pages = {1333}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.39605.555081.DB}, pmid = {18556307}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Child ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Obesity/*prevention &amp; control ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid18552925, year = {2008}, author = {Meen, HD}, title = {[Man-made global warming--be ready].}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {128}, number = {12}, pages = {1423; author reply 1423}, pmid = {18552925}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid18541636, year = {2008}, author = {Fainsinger, R}, title = {Global warming in the palliative care research environment: adapting to change.}, journal = {Palliative medicine}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {328-335}, doi = {10.1177/0269216308089308}, pmid = {18541636}, issn = {0269-2163}, mesh = {Analgesics, Opioid/*therapeutic use ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Palliative Care/*trends ; Research/trends ; }, abstract = {Advocates of palliative care research have often described the cold and difficult environment that has constrained the development of research internationally. The development of palliative care research has been slow over the last few decades and has met with resistance and sometimes hostility to the idea of conducting research in 'vulnerable populations'. The seeds of advocacy for research can be found in palliative care literature from the 1980s and early 1990s. Although we have much to do, we need to recognize that palliative care research development has come a long way. Of particular note is the development of well-funded collaboratives that now exist in Europe, Canada, Australia and the USA. The European Association for Palliative Care and the International Association for Hospice and Palliative Care has recognized the need to develop and promote global research initiatives, with a special focus on developing countries. Time is needed to develop good research evidence and in a more complex healthcare environment takes increasingly more resources to be productive. The increased support (global warming) evident in the increased funding opportunities available to palliative care researchers in a number of countries brings both benefits and challenges. There is evidence that the advocacy of individuals such as Kathleen Foley, Neil MacDonald, Balfour Mount, Vittorio Ventafridda, Robert Twycross and Geoff Hanks is now providing fertile ground and a much friendlier environment for a new generation of interdisciplinary palliative care research. We have achieved many of the goals necessary to avoid failure of the 'palliative care experiment', and need to accept the challenge of our present climate and adapt and take advantage of the change.}, }
@article {pmid18539208, year = {2008}, author = {McMichael, AJ and Neira, M and Heymann, DL}, title = {World Health Assembly 2008: climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {371}, number = {9628}, pages = {1895-1896}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60811-9}, pmid = {18539208}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Congresses as Topic ; *Global Health ; Goals ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid18537982, year = {2008}, author = {D'Amato, G and Cecchi, L}, title = {Effects of climate change on environmental factors in respiratory allergic diseases.}, journal = {Clinical and experimental allergy : journal of the British Society for Allergy and Clinical Immunology}, volume = {38}, number = {8}, pages = {1264-1274}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2222.2008.03033.x}, pmid = {18537982}, issn = {1365-2222}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*etiology/immunology ; Respiration Disorders/*etiology/*immunology ; }, abstract = {A body of evidence suggests that major changes involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by human activity, have an impact on the biosphere and the human environment. Studies on the effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between asthma and environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, airborne allergens and air pollution. However, there is also considerable evidence that subjects affected by asthma are at an increased risk of developing obstructive airway exacerbations with exposure to gaseous and particulate components of air pollution. It is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate change and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in general and on the timing of asthma exacerbations. However, the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity suggests that air pollution and climate changes could be contributing. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the interrelationship between air pollution, rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions and westernized lifestyle are correlated to an increase in the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy, prevalent in people who live in urban areas compared with those who live in rural areas. Meteorological factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, etc.) along with their climatological regimes (warm or cold anomalies and dry or wet periods, etc.), can affect both biological and chemical components of this interaction. In addition, by inducing airway inflammation, air pollution overcomes the mucosal barrier priming allergen-induced responses. In conclusion, climate change might induce negative effects on respiratory allergic diseases. In particular, the increased length and severity of the pollen season, the higher occurrence of heavy precipitation events and the increasing frequency of urban air pollution episodes suggest that environmental risk factors will have a stronger effect in the following decades.}, }
@article {pmid18536678, year = {2008}, author = {Fenning, TM and Walter, C and Gartland, KM}, title = {Forest biotech and climate change.}, journal = {Nature biotechnology}, volume = {26}, number = {6}, pages = {615-617}, doi = {10.1038/nbt0608-615}, pmid = {18536678}, issn = {1546-1696}, mesh = {Agriculture/*trends ; Biotechnology/*trends ; *Climate ; *Models, Biological ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid18536478, year = {2008}, author = {Freas, K and Munévar, A}, title = {Total water management: managing the water cycle for climate change solutions.}, journal = {Water environment research : a research publication of the Water Environment Federation}, volume = {80}, number = {4}, pages = {291}, pmid = {18536478}, issn = {1061-4303}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; *Water ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid18533205, year = {2008}, author = {McCartney, G and Hanlon, P}, title = {Climate change and rising energy costs: a threat but also an opportunity for a healthier future?.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {122}, number = {7}, pages = {653-657}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2008.03.019}, pmid = {18533205}, issn = {0033-3506}, mesh = {Climate ; Conservation of Energy Resources/*trends ; Economics/trends ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy/*trends ; Healthcare Disparities/*trends ; Humans ; Petroleum/supply &amp; distribution ; Public Health Practice ; }, abstract = {Health problems caused by overconsumption, growing inequalities and diminished well-being are issues that have been attributed to the prioritization of economic growth as the central purpose of society. It is also known that climate change and rising energy prices will inevitably bring changes to the globe's economic models. Doctors and the wider public health community have campaigned successfully in the past on issues such as the threat of nuclear war. Is it now time for this constituency to make its distinctive contribution to these new threats to health?}, }
@article {pmid18533204, year = {2008}, author = {McCartney, G and Hanlon, P and Romanes, F}, title = {Climate change and rising energy costs will change everything: a new mindset and action plan for 21st century public health.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {122}, number = {7}, pages = {658-663}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2008.03.018}, pmid = {18533204}, issn = {0033-3506}, mesh = {Climate ; Conservation of Energy Resources/economics ; *Economics ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy/*economics ; Health Promotion/*economics ; Humans ; *Public Health Practice ; }, abstract = {Western governments currently prioritize economic growth and the pursuit of profit above alternative goals of sustainability, health and equality. Climate change and rising energy costs are challenging this consensus. The realization of the transformation required to meet these challenges has provoked denial and conflict, but could lead to a more positive response which leads to a health dividend; enhanced well-being, less overconsumption and greater equality. This paper argues that public health can make its best contribution by adopting a new mindset, discourse, methodology and set of tasks.}, }
@article {pmid18528559, year = {2008}, author = {van der Leun, JC and Piacentini, RD and de Gruijl, FR}, title = {Climate change and human skin cancer.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {7}, number = {6}, pages = {730-733}, doi = {10.1039/b719302e}, pmid = {18528559}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carcinoma, Basal Cell/epidemiology ; Carcinoma, Squamous Cell/epidemiology ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Male ; Ozone/*analysis ; Skin Neoplasms/*epidemiology ; *Temperature ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {As part of an inventory of potential interactions between effects of ozone depletion and climate change, a possible effect of ambient temperature on sun-induced skin cancers was suggested. Mouse experiments had shown that increased room temperature enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation-induced carcinogenesis; the effective UV dose was increased by 3-7% per degrees C. The present investigation was aimed at studying a possible temperature effect on human skin cancer. Existing data on the incidence of human skin cancer were analyzed, as available from two special surveys of non-melanoma skin cancer in the United States. The incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer in the ten regions surveyed not only correlated significantly with the ambient UV dose but also with the average daily maximum temperature in summer. For squamous cell carcinoma the incidence was higher by 5.5% (SE 1.6%) per degrees C and for basal cell carcinoma by 2.9% (SE 1.4%) per degrees C. These values correspond to an increase of the effective UV dose by about 2% per degrees C. Although the precise nature of this correlation with temperature requires further studies, it can be concluded that the temperature rises coming with climate change can indeed amplify the induction of non-melanoma skin cancers by UV radiation in human populations.}, }
@article {pmid18524080, year = {2008}, author = {Galloro, V}, title = {For-profits feel global warming. In countries from India to South Africa, for-profit hospital companies are playing a growing role in healthcare delivery.}, journal = {Modern healthcare}, volume = {38}, number = {9}, pages = {28-30}, pmid = {18524080}, issn = {0160-7480}, mesh = {*Delivery of Health Care ; Europe ; *Hospitals, Proprietary ; India ; Latin America ; South Africa ; }, }
@article {pmid18516085, year = {2008}, author = {Hunter, P}, title = {Natural solutions to climate change. Greenhouse gases, high-energy crops and the future of the world.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {508-511}, pmid = {18516085}, issn = {1469-3178}, mesh = {Animals ; Bioelectric Energy Sources ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Forecasting ; Gases/*adverse effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid18514245, year = {2008}, author = {Campos, D and Llebot, JE and Méndez, V}, title = {Limited resources and evolutionary learning may help to understand the mistimed reproduction in birds caused by climate change.}, journal = {Theoretical population biology}, volume = {74}, number = {1}, pages = {16-21}, doi = {10.1016/j.tpb.2008.04.002}, pmid = {18514245}, issn = {1096-0325}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Birds ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Statistical ; Models, Theoretical ; *Oviposition ; Seasons ; Sexual Behavior, Animal ; Social Behavior ; }, abstract = {We present an agent-based model inspired by the Evolutionary Minority Game (EMG), albeit strongly adapted, to the case of competition for limited resources in ecology. The agents in this game become able, after some time, to predict the a priori best option as a result of an evolution-driven learning process. We show that a self-segregated social structure can emerge from this process, i.e., extreme learning strategies are always favoured while intermediate learning strategies tend to die out. This result may contribute to understanding some levels of organization and cooperative behaviour in ecological and social systems. We use the ideas and results reported here to discuss an issue of current interest in ecology: the mistimings in egg laying observed for some species of bird as a consequence of their slower rate of adaptation to climate change in comparison with that shown by their prey. Our model supports the hypothesis that habitat-specific constraints could explain why different populations are adapting differently to this situation, in agreement with recent experiments.}, }
@article {pmid18512525, year = {2008}, author = {Rahamat-Langendoen, JC and van Vliet, JA and Reusken, CB}, title = {[Climate change influences the incidence of arthropod-borne diseases in the Netherlands].}, journal = {Nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde}, volume = {152}, number = {15}, pages = {863-868}, pmid = {18512525}, issn = {0028-2162}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropod Vectors/*growth &amp; development/microbiology/virology ; Culicidae ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Lyme Disease/epidemiology/transmission ; Netherlands ; Phlebotomus Fever ; Rickettsia Infections/epidemiology/transmission ; Tick-Borne Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; Ticks ; }, abstract = {Climate change is associated with changes in the occurrence of arthropod-borne diseases. It is difficult to foresee which arthropod-borne diseases will appear in the Netherlands due to climate change. Climate change influences the prevalence of ticks and may lead to a further increase in Lyme disease and an increased risk of the introduction of rickettsioses. With further warming of the climate there is a real possibility of settlement of the mosquito Aedes albopictus and introduction of the sandfly in the Netherlands. Whether this will lead to circulation of micro-organisms transmitted by these vectors (e.g. West Nile virus, Dengue virus, Leishmania) is not clear. Continued vigilance is necessary, even for vector-borne diseases that appear to be less relevant for the Netherlands.}, }
@article {pmid18512440, year = {2008}, author = {Weitz, M and Coburn, JB and Salinas, E}, title = {Estimating national landfill methane emissions: an application of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Waste Model in Panama.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {58}, number = {5}, pages = {636-640}, doi = {10.3155/1047-3289.58.5.636}, pmid = {18512440}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Algorithms ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forecasting ; Government Agencies ; Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/*analysis ; Panama ; Refuse Disposal/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {This paper estimates national methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites in Panama over the time period 1990-2020 using both the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model spreadsheet and the default emissions estimate approach presented in the 1996 IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. The IPCC Waste Model has the ability to calculate emissions from a variety of solid waste disposal site types, taking into account country- or region-specific waste composition and climate information, and can be used with a limited amount of data. Countries with detailed data can also run the model with country-specific values. The paper discusses methane emissions from solid waste disposal; explains the differences between the two methodologies in terms of data needs, assumptions, and results; describes solid waste disposal circumstances in Panama; and presents the results of this analysis. It also demonstrates the Waste Model's ability to incorporate landfill gas recovery data and to make projections. The former default method methane emissions estimates are 25 Gg in 1994, and range from 23.1 Gg in 1990 to a projected 37.5 Gg in 2020. The Waste Model estimates are 26.7 Gg in 1994, ranging from 24.6 Gg in 1990 to 41.6 Gg in 2020. Emissions estimates for Panama produced by the new model were, on average, 8% higher than estimates produced by the former default methodology. The increased estimate can be attributed to the inclusion of all solid waste disposal in Panama (as opposed to only disposal in managed landfills), but the increase was offset somewhat by the different default factors and regional waste values between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the use of the first-order decay model with a time delay for waste degradation in the IPCC Waste Model.}, }
@article {pmid18511657, year = {2008}, author = {Cuffey, KM}, title = {Climate change. A Matter of firn.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {320}, number = {5883}, pages = {1596-1597}, doi = {10.1126/science.1158683}, pmid = {18511657}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18509430, year = {2008}, author = {Forest, CE and Reynolds, RW}, title = {Climate change: hot questions of temperature bias.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {453}, number = {7195}, pages = {601-602}, doi = {10.1038/453601a}, pmid = {18509430}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid18507833, year = {2008}, author = {Bélanger, D and Gosselin, P and Valois, P and Abdous, B}, title = {Use of residential wood heating in a context of climate change: a population survey in Québec (Canada).}, journal = {BMC public health}, volume = {8}, number = {}, pages = {184}, pmid = {18507833}, issn = {1471-2458}, mesh = {Adult ; Aged ; Air Pollution, Indoor/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Heating/*methods ; *Housing/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Humans ; Male ; Mass Media ; Middle Aged ; Multivariate Analysis ; *Public Opinion ; Quebec ; Residence Characteristics ; Smog/adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; *Wood ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Wood heating is recommended in several countries as a climate change (CC) adaptation measure, mainly to increase the autonomy of households during power outages due to extreme climatic events. The aim of this study was to examine various perceptions and individual characteristics associated with wood heating through a survey about CC adaptations.<br><br>METHODS: A telephone survey (n = 2,545) of adults living in the southern part of the province of Qu&#xe9;bec (Canada) was conducted in the early fall season of 2005. The questionnaire used closed questions and measured the respondents' beliefs and current adaptations about CC. Calibration weighting was used to adjust the data analysis for the respondent's age and language under stratified sampling based on health regions.<br><br>RESULTS: More than three out of four respondents had access to a single source of energy at home, which was mainly electricity; 22.2% combined two sources or more; 18.5% heated with wood occasionally or daily during the winter. The prevalence of wood heating was higher in the peripheral regions than in the more urban regions, where there was a higher proportion of respondents living in apartments. The prevalence was also higher with participants completely disagreeing (38.5%) with the eventual prohibition of wood heating when there is smog in winter, compared to respondents somewhat disagreeing (24.2%) or agreeing (somewhat: 17.5%; completely: 10.4%) with the adoption of this strategy. It appears that the perception of living in a region susceptible to winter smog, smog warnings in the media, or the belief in the human contribution to CC, did not influence significantly wood heating practices.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Increased residential wood heating could very well become a maladaptation to climate change, given its known consequences on winter smog and respiratory health. It would thus be appropriate to implement a long-term national program on improved and controlled residential wood heating. This would constitute a "no-regrets" adaptation to climate change, while reducing air pollution and its associated health impacts.}, }
@article {pmid18507815, year = {2008}, author = {Brouder, SM and Volenec, JJ}, title = {Impact of climate change on crop nutrient and water use efficiencies.}, journal = {Physiologia plantarum}, volume = {133}, number = {4}, pages = {705-724}, doi = {10.1111/j.1399-3054.2008.01136.x}, pmid = {18507815}, issn = {1399-3054}, mesh = {Crops, Agricultural/*metabolism ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Water/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Implicit in discussions of plant nutrition and climate change is the assumption that we know what to do relative to nutrient management here and now but that these strategies might not apply in a changed climate. We review existing knowledge on interactive influences of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, temperature and soil moisture on plant growth, development and yield as well as on plant water use efficiency (WUE) and physiological and uptake efficiencies of soil-immobile nutrients. Elevated atmospheric CO(2) will increase leaf and canopy photosynthesis, especially in C3 plants, with minor changes in dark respiration. Additional CO(2) will increase biomass without marked alteration in dry matter partitioning, reduce transpiration of most plants and improve WUE. However, spatiotemporal variation in these attributes will impact agronomic performance and crop water use in a site-specific manner. Nutrient acquisition is closely associated with overall biomass and strongly influenced by root surface area. When climate change alters soil factors to restrict root growth, nutrient stress will occur. Plant size may also change but nutrient concentration will remain relatively unchanged; therefore, nutrient removal will scale with growth. Changes in regional nutrient requirements will be most remarkable where we alter cropping systems to accommodate shifts in ecozones or alter farming systems to capture new uses from existing systems. For regions and systems where we currently do an adequate job managing nutrients, we stand a good chance of continued optimization under a changed climate. If we can and should do better, climate change will not help us.}, }
@article {pmid18498647, year = {2008}, author = {Ogden, NH and St-Onge, L and Barker, IK and Brazeau, S and Bigras-Poulin, M and Charron, DF and Francis, CM and Heagy, A and Lindsay, LR and Maarouf, A and Michel, P and Milord, F and O'Callaghan, CJ and Trudel, L and Thompson, RA}, title = {Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change.}, journal = {International journal of health geographics}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {24}, pmid = {18498647}, issn = {1476-072X}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/*growth &amp; development/virology ; Birds/parasitology ; Canada/epidemiology ; Geographic Information Systems ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ixodes/*growth &amp; development/virology ; Logistic Models ; Lyme Disease/*epidemiology/transmission/virology ; Maps as Topic ; Risk Assessment ; Rodentia/parasitology ; Tick Infestations/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Lyme disease is the commonest vector-borne zoonosis in the temperate world, and an emerging infectious disease in Canada due to expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis. Studies suggest that climate change will accelerate Lyme disease emergence by enhancing climatic suitability for I. scapularis. Risk maps will help to meet the public health challenge of Lyme disease by allowing targeting of surveillance and intervention activities.<br><br>RESULTS: A risk map for possible Lyme endemicity was created using a simple risk algorithm for occurrence of I. scapularis populations. The algorithm was calculated for each census sub-division in central and eastern Canada from interpolated output of a temperature-driven simulation model of I. scapularis populations and an index of tick immigration. The latter was calculated from estimates of tick dispersion distances by migratory birds and recent knowledge of the current geographic range of endemic I. scapularis populations. The index of tick immigration closely predicted passive surveillance data on I. scapularis occurrence, and the risk algorithm was a significant predictor of the occurrence of I. scapularis populations in a prospective field study. Risk maps for I. scapularis occurrence in Canada under future projected climate (in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) were produced using temperature output from the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model 2 with greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcing 'A2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: We have prepared risk maps for the occurrence of I. scapularis in eastern and central Canada under current and future projected climate. Validation of the risk maps provides some confidence that they provide a useful first step in predicting the occurrence of I. scapularis populations, and directing public health objectives in minimizing risk from Lyme disease. Further field studies are needed, however, to continue validation and refinement of the risk maps.}, }
@article {pmid18498630, year = {2008}, author = {Doyon, B and Bélanger, D and Gosselin, P}, title = {The potential impact of climate change on annual and seasonal mortality for three cities in Québec, Canada.}, journal = {International journal of health geographics}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {23}, pmid = {18498630}, issn = {1476-072X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Computer Simulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Heat Stress Disorders/etiology/mortality ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Linear Models ; Mortality/*trends ; Poisson Distribution ; *Public Health ; Quebec/epidemiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The impact of climate change and particularly increasing temperature on mortality has been examined for three cities in the province of Québec, Canada.<br><br>METHODS: Generalized linear Poisson regression has been fitted to the total daily mortality for each city. Smooth parametric cubic splines of temperature and humidity have been used to do nonlinear modeling of these parameters. The model, to control for day of the week and for non-temperature seasonal factors, used a smooth function of time, including delayed effects. The model was then used to assess variation in mortality for simulated future temperatures obtained from an atmospheric General Circulation Model coupled with downscaling regression techniques. Two CO2 emission scenarios are considered (scenarios A2 and B2). Projections are made for future periods around year 2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099).<br><br>RESULTS: A significant association between mortality and current temperature has been found for the three cities. Under CO2 emission scenarios A2 and B2, the mortality model predicts a significant increase in mortality in the summertime, and a smaller, but significant decrease in the fall season. The slight variations in projected mortality for future winter and spring seasons were found to be not statistically significant. The variations in projected annual mortality are dominated by an increase in mortality in the summer, which is not balanced by the decrease in mortality in the fall and winter seasons. The summer increase and the annual mortality range respectively from about 2% and 0.5% for the 2020 period, to 10% and 3% for the years around 2080. The difference between the mortality variations projected with the A2 or B2 scenarios was not statistically significant.<br><br>CONCLUSION: For the three cities, the two CO2 emission scenarios considered led to an increase in annual mortality, which contrasts with most European countries, where the projected increase in summer mortality with respect to climate change is overbalanced by the decrease in winter mortality. This highlights the importance of place in such analyses. The method proposed here to establish these estimates is general and can also be applied to small cities, where mortality rates are relatively low (ex. two deaths/day).}, }
@article {pmid18498595, year = {2008}, author = {Urry, J}, title = {Climate change, travel and complex futures.}, journal = {The British journal of sociology}, volume = {59}, number = {2}, pages = {261-279}, doi = {10.1111/j.1468-4446.2008.00193.x}, pmid = {18498595}, issn = {1468-4446}, mesh = {*Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Petroleum/*supply &amp; distribution ; Sociology/*trends ; Technology/*trends ; Travel/*trends ; }, abstract = {In this paper I examine various sociologies of the future. I argue that one future, of global climate change, is now exceptionally significant. This future is based upon certain sociological presumptions and thus sociology is central to its emerging contours and to its analysis. I examine one aspect of such a future, the role of travel and especially automobility within this emerging dystopia. I use some formulations from complexity theory to examine what might constitute an alternative to global heating and the scenario of 'tribal trading'. It is suggested that one feasible alternative is a 'digital panopticon' and I examine some small changes that might tip the system to such a post-automobility system. But there is no free lunch here. It is argued that the world may be torn between two bleak scenarios as a consequence of the twentieth century's exceptional degree of resource use, between a Hobbesian war of all against all and an Orwellian digital panopticon. The twentieth century would seem to be reaping its bitter revenge.}, }
@article {pmid18497402, year = {2008}, author = {Zarocostas, J}, title = {WHO chief calls for united front in face of three crises: food, climate change, and pandemic influenza.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {336}, number = {7654}, pages = {1155}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.39588.355162.DB}, pmid = {18497402}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Food Supply ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; Influenza, Human/*prevention &amp; control ; Interprofessional Relations ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid18497268, year = {2008}, author = {Charles, D}, title = {Climate change. The threat to the world's plants.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {320}, number = {5879}, pages = {1000}, doi = {10.1126/science.320.5879.1000b}, pmid = {18497268}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid18497267, year = {2008}, author = {Charles, D}, title = {Climate change. Polar bear listing opens door to new lawsuits.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {320}, number = {5879}, pages = {1000-1001}, doi = {10.1126/science.320.5879.1000a}, pmid = {18497267}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environment ; Extinction, Biological ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Jurisprudence ; Public Policy ; United States ; *Ursidae ; }, }
@article {pmid18497266, year = {2008}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. Hurricanes won't go wild, according to climate models.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {320}, number = {5879}, pages = {999}, doi = {10.1126/science.320.5879.999a}, pmid = {18497266}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18494370, year = {2008}, author = {Ragen, TJ and Huntington, HP and Hovelsrud, GK}, title = {Conservation of Arctic marine mammals faced with climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {18}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {S166-74}, doi = {10.1890/06-0734.1}, pmid = {18494370}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Mammals ; *Marine Biology ; }, abstract = {On a daily basis, societies are making decisions that will influence the effects of climate change for decades or even centuries to come. To promote informed management of the associated risks, we review available conservation measures for Arctic marine mammals, a group that includes some of the most charismatic species on earth. The majority of available conservation measures (e.g., restrictions on hunting, protection of essential habitat areas from development, reduction of incidental take) are intended to address the effects of increasing human activity in the Arctic that are likely to follow decreasing sea ice and rising temperatures. As important as those measures will be in the effort to conserve Arctic marine mammals and ecosystems, they will not address the primary physical manifestations of climate change, such as loss of sea ice. Short of actions to prevent climate change, there are no known conservation measures that can be used to ensure the long-term persistence of these species and ecosystems as we know them today.}, }
@article {pmid18494369, year = {2008}, author = {Moore, SE and Huntington, HP}, title = {Arctic marine mammals and climate change: impacts and resilience.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {18}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {s157-165}, doi = {10.1890/06-0571.1}, pmid = {18494369}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate ; *Mammals ; *Marine Biology ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Evolutionary selection has refined the life histories of seven species (three cetacean [narwhal, beluga, and bowhead whales], three pinniped [walrus, ringed, and bearded seals], and the polar bear) to spatial and temporal domains influenced by the seasonal extremes and variability of sea ice, temperature, and day length that define the Arctic. Recent changes in Arctic climate may challenge the adaptive capability of these species. Nine other species (five cetacean [fin, humpback, minke, gray, and killer whales] and four pinniped [harp, hooded, ribbon, and spotted seals]) seasonally occupy Arctic and subarctic habitats and may be poised to encroach into more northern latitudes and to remain there longer, thereby competing with extant Arctic species. A synthesis of the impacts of climate change on all these species hinges on sea ice, in its role as: (1) platform, (2) marine ecosystem foundation, and (3) barrier to non-ice-adapted marine mammals and human commercial activities. Therefore, impacts are categorized for: (1) ice-obligate species that rely on sea ice platforms, (2) ice-associated species that are adapted to sea ice-dominated ecosystems, and (3) seasonally migrant species for which sea ice can act as a barrier. An assessment of resilience is far more speculative, as any number of scenarios can be envisioned, most of them involving potential trophic cascades and anticipated human perturbations. Here we provide resilience scenarios for the three ice-related species categories relative to four regions defined by projections of sea ice reductions by 2050 and extant shelf oceanography. These resilience scenarios suggest that: (1) some populations of ice-obligate marine mammals will survive in two regions with sea ice refugia, while other stocks may adapt to ice-free coastal habitats, (2) ice-associated species may find suitable feeding opportunities within the two regions with sea ice refugia and, if capable of shifting among available prey, may benefit from extended foraging periods in formerly ice-covered seas, but (3) they may face increasing competition from seasonally migrant species, which will likely infiltrate Arctic habitats. The means to track and assess Arctic ecosystem change using sentinel marine mammal species are suggested to offer a framework for scientific investigation and responsible resource management.}, }
@article {pmid18494366, year = {2008}, author = {Burek, KA and Gulland, FM and O'Hara, TM}, title = {Effects of climate change on Arctic marine mammal health.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {18}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {S126-34}, doi = {10.1890/06-0553.1}, pmid = {18494366}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate ; *Mammals ; *Marine Biology ; }, abstract = {The lack of integrated long-term data on health, diseases, and toxicant effects in Arctic marine mammals severely limits our ability to predict the effects of climate change on marine mammal health. The overall health of an individual animal is the result of complex interactions among immune status, body condition, pathogens and their pathogenicity, toxicant exposure, and the various environmental conditions that interact with these factors. Climate change could affect these interactions in several ways. There may be direct effects of loss of the sea ice habitat, elevations of water and air temperature, and increased occurrence of severe weather. Some of the indirect effects of climate change on animal health will likely include alterations in pathogen transmission due to a variety of factors, effects on body condition due to shifts in the prey base/food web, changes in toxicant exposures, and factors associated with increased human habitation in the Arctic (e.g., chemical and pathogen pollution in the runoff due to human and domestic-animal wastes and chemicals and increased ship traffic with the attendant increased risks of ship strike, oil spills, ballast pollution, and possibly acoustic injury). The extent to which climate change will impact marine mammal health will also vary among species, with some species more sensitive to these factors than others. Baseline data on marine mammal health parameters along with matched data on the population and climate change trends are needed to document these changes.}, }
@article {pmid18494363, year = {2008}, author = {O'Corry-Crowe, G}, title = {Climate change and the molecular ecology of Arctic marine mammals.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {18}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {S56-76}, doi = {10.1890/06-0795.1}, pmid = {18494363}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Ecology ; *Mammals/genetics ; *Marine Biology ; }, abstract = {Key to predicting likely consequences of future climate change for Arctic marine mammals is developing a detailed understanding of how these species use their environment today and how they were affected by past climate-induced environmental change. Genetic analyses are uniquely placed to address these types of questions. Molecular genetic approaches are being used to determine distribution and migration patterns, dispersal and breeding behavior, population structure and abundance over time, and the effects of past and present climate change in Arctic marine mammals. A review of published studies revealed that population subdivision, dispersal, and gene flow in Arctic marine mammals was shaped primarily by evolutionary history, geography, sea ice, and philopatry to predictable, seasonally available resources. A meta-analysis of data from 38 study units across seven species found significant relationships between neutral genetic diversity and population size and climate region, revealing that small, isolated subarctic populations tend to harbor lower diversity than larger Arctic populations. A few small populations had substantially lower diversity than others. By contrast, other small populations retain substantial neutral diversity despite extensive population declines in the 19th and 20th centuries. The evolutionary and contemporary perspectives gained from these studies can be used to model the consequences of different climate projections for individual behavior and population structure and ultimately individual fitness and population viability. Future research should focus on: (1) the use of ancient-DNA techniques to directly reconstruct population histories through the analysis of historical and prehistorical material, (2) the use of genomic technologies to identify, map, and survey genes that directly influence fitness, (3) long-term studies to monitor populations and investigate evolution in contemporary time, (4) further Arctic-wide, multispecies analyses, preferably across different taxa and trophic levels, and (5) the use of genetic parameters in population and species risk analyses.}, }
@article {pmid18494359, year = {2008}, author = {Huntington, HP and Moore, SE}, title = {Assessing the impacts of climate change on arctic marine mammals.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {18}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {S1-2}, doi = {10.1890/06-0282.1}, pmid = {18494359}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate ; *Environment ; *Mammals ; }, }
@article {pmid18492744, year = {2008}, author = {Catford, J}, title = {Food security, climate change and heath promotion: opening up the streams not just helping out down stream.}, journal = {Health promotion international}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {105-108}, doi = {10.1093/heapro/dan016}, pmid = {18492744}, issn = {1460-2245}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Food Supply ; Global Health ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid18491184, year = {2009}, author = {Willis, SG and Hole, DG and Collingham, YC and Hilton, G and Rahbek, C and Huntley, B}, title = {Assessing the impacts of future climate change on protected area networks: a method to simulate individual species' responses.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {43}, number = {5}, pages = {836-845}, pmid = {18491184}, issn = {1432-1009}, mesh = {Africa ; *Biodiversity ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species, arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird Area (IBA) network is a series of sites designed to conserve avian diversity in the face of current threats from factors such as habitat loss and fragmentation. However, in common with other networks, the IBA network is based on the assumption that the climate will remain unchanged in the future. In this article, we provide a method to simulate the occurrence of species of conservation concern in protected areas, which could be used as a first-step approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change upon such species in protected areas. We use species-climate response surface models to relate the occurrence of 12 biome-restricted African species to climate data at a coarse (quarter degree-degree latitude-longitude) resolution and then intersect the grid model output with IBA outlines to simulate the occurrence of the species in South African IBAs. Our results demonstrate that this relatively simple technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios to highlight vulnerable species in IBAs in the future and allow practical recommendations to be made to enhance the IBA network and minimize the predicted impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18488623, year = {2008}, author = {Cannone, N and Diolaiuti, G and Guglielmin, M and Smiraglia, C}, title = {Accelerating climate change impacts on alpine glacier forefield ecosystems in the European Alps.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {637-648}, doi = {10.1890/07-1188.1}, pmid = {18488623}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Europe ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Ice Cover ; Poaceae ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {In the European Alps the increase in air temperature was more than twice the increase in global mean temperature over the last 50 years. The abiotic (glacial) and the biotic components (plants and vegetation) of the mountain environment are showing ample evidence of climate change impacts. In the Alps most small glaciers (80% of total glacial coverage and an important contribution to water resources) could disappear in the next decades. Recently climate change was demonstrated to affect higher levels of ecological systems, with vegetation exhibiting surface area changes, indicating that alpine and nival vegetation may be able to respond in a fast and flexible way in response to 1-2 degrees C warming. We analyzed the glacier evolution (terminus fluctuations, mass balances, surface area variations), local climate, and vegetation succession on the forefield of Sforzellina Glacier (Upper Valtellina, central Italian Alps) over the past three decades. We aimed to quantify the impacts of climate change on coupled biotic and abiotic components of high alpine ecosystems, to verify if an acceleration was occurring on them during the last decade (i.e., 1996-2006) and to assess whether new specific strategies were adopted for plant colonization and development. All the glaciological data indicate that a glacial retreat and shrinkage occurred and was much stronger after 2002 than during the last 35 years. Vegetation started to colonize surfaces deglaciated for only one year, with a rate at least four times greater than that reported in the literature for the establishment of scattered individuals and about two times greater for the well-established discontinuous early-successional community. The colonization strategy changed: the first colonizers are early-successional, scree slopes, and perennial clonal species with high phenotypic plasticity rather than pioneer and snowbed species. This impressive acceleration coincided with only slight local summer warming (approximately -0.5 degree C) and a poorly documented local decrease in the snow cover depth and duration. Are we facing accelerated ecological responses to climatic changes and/or did we go beyond a threshold over which major ecosystem changes may occur in response to even minor climatic variations?}, }
@article {pmid18481116, year = {2008}, author = {Frei, T and Gassner, E}, title = {Climate change and its impact on birch pollen quantities and the start of the pollen season an example from Switzerland for the period 1969-2006.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {52}, number = {7}, pages = {667-674}, pmid = {18481116}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {Betula/*growth &amp; development ; Computer Simulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Statistical ; Pollen/*growth &amp; development ; *Seasons ; Switzerland ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {As published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global warming is a reality and its impact is huge like the increase of extreme weather events, glacier recession, sea level rise and also effects on human health. Among them allergies to airborne pollen might increase or change in pattern due to the invasion of new allergic plants or due to different behavior of plants like earlier flowering. In this study we used the longest Swiss airborne pollen data set to examine the influence of the temperature increase on the time of flowering. In the case of Basel, where pollen data for 38 years are available, it was shown that due to a temperature increase the start of flowering in the case of birch occurred about 15 days earlier. Apart from a shift of the start of the flowering there is also a trend towards higher annual birch pollen quantities and an increase of the highest daily mean pollen concentrations. Due to global warming and because symptoms may appear earlier in the year people suffering from a pollen allergy might face a new unaccustomed situation.}, }
@article {pmid18480817, year = {2008}, author = {Rosenzweig, C and Karoly, D and Vicarelli, M and Neofotis, P and Wu, Q and Casassa, G and Menzel, A and Root, TL and Estrella, N and Seguin, B and Tryjanowski, P and Liu, C and Rawlins, S and Imeson, A}, title = {Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {453}, number = {7193}, pages = {353-357}, doi = {10.1038/nature06937}, pmid = {18480817}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Databases, Factual ; *Ecosystem ; Forestry ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Human Activities ; Ice ; Internationality ; Marine Biology ; Models, Statistical ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.}, }
@article {pmid18480804, year = {2008}, author = {Zwiers, F and Hegerl, G}, title = {Climate change: attributing cause and effect.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {453}, number = {7193}, pages = {296-297}, doi = {10.1038/453296a}, pmid = {18480804}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; *Human Activities ; Meta-Analysis as Topic ; Models, Statistical ; }, }
@article {pmid18470284, year = {2008}, author = {Koneswaran, G and Nierenberg, D}, title = {Global farm animal production and global warming: impacting and mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {116}, number = {5}, pages = {578-582}, pmid = {18470284}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animal Feed/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Animals ; *Animals, Domestic ; Carbon Dioxide ; Fertilizers/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane ; Nitrogen ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change.<br><br>METHODS: We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies.<br><br>DISCUSSIONS: An analysis of meat, egg, and milk production encompasses not only the direct rearing and slaughtering of animals, but also grain and fertilizer production for animal feed, waste storage and disposal, water use, and energy expenditures on farms and in transporting feed and finished animal products, among other key impacts of the production process as a whole.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Immediate and far-reaching changes in current animal agriculture practices and consumption patterns are both critical and timely if GHGs from the farm animal sector are to be mitigated.}, }
@article {pmid18467590, year = {2008}, author = {Charmantier, A and McCleery, RH and Cole, LR and Perrins, C and Kruuk, LE and Sheldon, BC}, title = {Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change in a wild bird population.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {320}, number = {5877}, pages = {800-803}, doi = {10.1126/science.1157174}, pmid = {18467590}, issn = {1095-9203}, support = {//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate ; Feeding Behavior ; Female ; Male ; Passeriformes/*physiology ; Phenotype ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Rapid climate change has been implicated as a cause of evolution in poorly adapted populations. However, phenotypic plasticity provides the potential for organisms to respond rapidly and effectively to environmental change. Using a 47-year population study of the great tit (Parus major) in the United Kingdom, we show that individual adjustment of behavior in response to the environment has enabled the population to track a rapidly changing environment very closely. Individuals were markedly invariant in their response to environmental variation, suggesting that the current response may be fixed in this population. Phenotypic plasticity can thus play a central role in tracking environmental change; understanding the limits of plasticity is an important goal for future research.}, }
@article {pmid18461772, year = {2008}, author = {Paul, VJ}, title = {Global warming and cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms.}, journal = {Advances in experimental medicine and biology}, volume = {619}, number = {}, pages = {239-257}, doi = {10.1007/978-0-387-75865-7_11}, pmid = {18461772}, issn = {0065-2598}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Cyanobacteria/growth &amp; development/*pathogenicity/physiology/radiation effects ; Ecosystem ; *Eutrophication ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Photobiology ; Public Health ; Temperature ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {The Earth and the oceans have warmed significantly over the past four decades, providing evidence that the Earth is undergoing long-term climate change. Increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns have been documented. Cyanobacteria have a long evolutionary history, with their first occurrence dating back at least 2.7 billion years ago. Cyanobacteria often dominated the oceans after past mass extinction events. They evolved under anoxic conditions and are well adapted to environmental stress including exposure to UV, high solar radiation and temperatures, scarce and abundant nutrients. These environmental conditions favor the dominance of cyanobacteria in many aquatic habitats, from freshwater to marine ecosystems. A few studies have examined the ecological consequences of global warming on cyanobacteria and other phytoplankton over the past decades in freshwater, estuarine, and marine environments, with varying results. The responses of cyanobacteria to changing environmental patterns associated with global climate change are important subjects for future research. Results of this research will have ecological and biogeochemical significance as well as management implications.}, }
@article {pmid18460457, year = {2008}, author = {Rom, WN and Pinkerton, KE and Martin, WJ and Forastiere, F}, title = {Global warming: a challenge to all American Thoracic Society members.}, journal = {American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine}, volume = {177}, number = {10}, pages = {1053-1054}, doi = {10.1164/rccm.200801-052ED}, pmid = {18460457}, issn = {1535-4970}, mesh = {*Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Politics ; Pulmonary Medicine/organization &amp; administration ; *Respiratory Tract Diseases ; Risk Factors ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid18453189, year = {2008}, author = {Halverson, LW}, title = {In defense of a theory of anthropogenic global warming.}, journal = {Missouri medicine}, volume = {105}, number = {2}, pages = {118-121}, pmid = {18453189}, issn = {0026-6620}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Public Policy ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid18453188, year = {2008}, author = {Lupo, AR}, title = {Anthropogenic global warming: a skeptical point of view.}, journal = {Missouri medicine}, volume = {105}, number = {2}, pages = {114-117}, pmid = {18453188}, issn = {0026-6620}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid18451848, year = {2008}, author = {Wood, R}, title = {Climate change: natural ups and downs.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {453}, number = {7191}, pages = {43-45}, doi = {10.1038/453043a}, pmid = {18451848}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid18451270, year = {2008}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. Mother nature cools the greenhouse, but hotter times still lie ahead.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {320}, number = {5876}, pages = {595}, doi = {10.1126/science.320.5876.595}, pmid = {18451270}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18449396, year = {2008}, author = {Thomas, RJ}, title = {10th anniversary review: addressing land degradation and climate change in dryland agroecosystems through sustainable land management.}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {595-603}, doi = {10.1039/b801649f}, pmid = {18449396}, issn = {1464-0325}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Desert Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {Sustainable land management (SLM) is proposed as a unifying theme for current global efforts on combating desertification, climate change and loss of biodiversity in drylands. A focus on SLM will achieve the multiple goals of the three UN Conventions (UNCCD, UNFCCC and UNCBD) and in particular will address the roots causes of poverty and vulnerability to climate change rather than a current focus on adapting to climate change. The interlinkages between land degradation, climate change and loss of biodiversity are outlined together with a proposed set of interventions to achieve multiple goals. It is argued that improved land productivity is a viable goal to reduce poverty in drylands provided it is linked to payments for environmental services and better crop and weather insurances and coupled with alternative livelihoods that are not primarily dependent on land productivity. Obstacles to the achievement of SLM are discussed and the steps necessary to overcome them are presented. It is suggested that promoting SLM would be a better focus for the UNCCD than combating desertification.}, }
@article {pmid18449395, year = {2008}, author = {Toulmin, C}, title = {Foreword: 10th anniversary review: addressing land degradation and climate change in dryland agroecosystems through sustainable land management.}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {594}, doi = {10.1039/b805886p}, pmid = {18449395}, issn = {1464-0325}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; }, }
@article {pmid18437624, year = {2008}, author = {Maraseni, TN and Maroulis, J}, title = {Piggery: from environmental pollution to a climate change solution.}, journal = {Journal of environmental science and health. Part. B, Pesticides, food contaminants, and agricultural wastes}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {358-363}, doi = {10.1080/03601230801941717}, pmid = {18437624}, issn = {0360-1234}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Animal Husbandry/methods ; Animals ; Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Electricity ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/*analysis ; Refuse Disposal/methods ; Swine ; Waste Management/*methods ; }, abstract = {Pig farms are a vital component of rural economies in Australia. However, disposal of effluent leads to many environmental problems. This case study of the Berrybank Farm piggery waste management system in Victoria estimates greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits from three different activities. Analysis reveals that the capturing and combusting of methane from piggery effluent could save between 4859 and 5840 tCO2e yr(-1) of GHG emissions. Similarly, using methane for replacing fuels for electricity generation could save another 800 tCO2e yr(-1)of GHGs. Likewise, by utilizing the biogas wastes to replace inorganic fertilizers there could be a further saving of 1193 to 1375 tCO2e yr(-1) of GHG, depending on the type of fertilizers the waste replaces. Therefore, a well-managed piggery farm with 15,000 pigs could save 6,852 to 8,015 tCO2e yr(-1), which equates to the carbon sequestrated from 6,800 to 8,000 spotted gum trees (age=35 year) in their above plus below-ground biomass. Implementation of similar project in suitable areas in Australia could have significant environmental and financial benefits.}, }
@article {pmid18436764, year = {2008}, author = {Marquis, M and Tans, P}, title = {Climate change. Carbon crucible.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {320}, number = {5875}, pages = {460-461}, doi = {10.1126/science.1156451}, pmid = {18436764}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18436544, year = {2008}, author = {Sage, RF and Way, DA and Kubien, DS}, title = {Rubisco, Rubisco activase, and global climate change.}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {59}, number = {7}, pages = {1581-1595}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/ern053}, pmid = {18436544}, issn = {1460-2431}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/pharmacology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Plant Proteins/*metabolism ; Ribulose-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Global warming and the rise in atmospheric CO(2) will increase the operating temperature of leaves in coming decades, often well above the thermal optimum for photosynthesis. Presently, there is controversy over the limiting processes controlling photosynthesis at elevated temperature. Leading models propose that the reduction in photosynthesis at elevated temperature is a function of either declining capacity of electron transport to regenerate RuBP, or reductions in the capacity of Rubisco activase to maintain Rubisco in an active configuration. Identifying which of these processes is the principal limitation at elevated temperature is complicated because each may be regulated in response to a limitation in the other. Biochemical and gas exchange assessments can disentangle these photosynthetic limitations; however, comprehensive assessments are often difficult and, for many species, virtually impossible. It is proposed that measurement of the initial slope of the CO(2) response of photosynthesis (the A/C(i) response) can be a useful means to screen for Rubisco activase limitations. This is because a reduction in the Rubisco activation state should be most apparent at low CO(2) when Rubisco capacity is generally limiting. In sweet potato, spinach, and tobacco, the initial slope of the A/C(i) response shows no evidence of activase limitations at high temperature, as the slope can be accurately modelled using the kinetic parameters of fully activated Rubisco. In black spruce (Picea mariana), a reduction in the initial slope above 30 degrees C cannot be explained by the known kinetics of fully activated Rubisco, indicating that activase may be limiting at high temperatures. Because black spruce is the dominant species in the boreal forest of North America, Rubisco activase may be an unusually important factor determining the response of the boreal biome to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18432244, year = {2008}, author = {Kurz, WA and Dymond, CC and Stinson, G and Rampley, GJ and Neilson, ET and Carroll, AL and Ebata, T and Safranyik, L}, title = {Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {452}, number = {7190}, pages = {987-990}, doi = {10.1038/nature06777}, pmid = {18432244}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; British Columbia ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Coleoptera/*metabolism ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Feedback, Physiological ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Monte Carlo Method ; Pinus/*metabolism ; Plant Diseases ; Trees/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) is a native insect of the pine forests of western North America, and its populations periodically erupt into large-scale outbreaks. During outbreaks, the resulting widespread tree mortality reduces forest carbon uptake and increases future emissions from the decay of killed trees. The impacts of insects on forest carbon dynamics, however, are generally ignored in large-scale modelling analyses. The current outbreak in British Columbia, Canada, is an order of magnitude larger in area and severity than all previous recorded outbreaks. Here we estimate that the cumulative impact of the beetle outbreak in the affected region during 2000-2020 will be 270 megatonnes (Mt) carbon (or 36 g carbon m(-2) yr(-1) on average over 374,000 km2 of forest). This impact converted the forest from a small net carbon sink to a large net carbon source both during and immediately after the outbreak. In the worst year, the impacts resulting from the beetle outbreak in British Columbia were equivalent to approximately 75% of the average annual direct forest fire emissions from all of Canada during 1959-1999. The resulting reduction in net primary production was of similar magnitude to increases observed during the 1980s and 1990s as a result of global change. Climate change has contributed to the unprecedented extent and severity of this outbreak. Insect outbreaks such as this represent an important mechanism by which climate change may undermine the ability of northern forests to take up and store atmospheric carbon, and such impacts should be accounted for in large-scale modelling analyses.}, }
@article {pmid18431825, year = {2008}, author = {Witze, A}, title = {Climate change: losing Greenland.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {452}, number = {7189}, pages = {798-802}, doi = {10.1038/452798a}, pmid = {18431825}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Greenland ; *Ice Cover ; *Phase Transition ; Seasons ; Spacecraft ; Uncertainty ; Water Movements ; }, }
@article {pmid18431428, year = {2008}, author = {Johansen, V}, title = {[Humans behind global warming].}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {128}, number = {8}, pages = {946}, pmid = {18431428}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Photosynthesis ; }, }
@article {pmid18431427, year = {2008}, author = {Meen, HD}, title = {[Humans behind global warming? Probably!].}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {128}, number = {8}, pages = {946-947}, pmid = {18431427}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Photosynthesis ; }, }
@article {pmid18423818, year = {2008}, author = {Brian, JV and Harris, CA and Runnalls, TJ and Fantinati, A and Pojana, G and Marcomini, A and Booy, P and Lamoree, M and Kortenkamp, A and Sumpter, JP}, title = {Evidence of temperature-dependent effects on the estrogenic response of fish: implications with regard to climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {397}, number = {1-3}, pages = {72-81}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.02.036}, pmid = {18423818}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Animals ; Base Sequence ; DNA Primers ; Endocrine Disruptors/*pharmacology ; Estrogens/*physiology ; *Fishes ; Gene Expression/drug effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Risk Assessment ; *Temperature ; Vitellogenins/biosynthesis/genetics ; }, abstract = {Chemical risk assessment is fraught with difficulty due to the problem of accounting for the effects of mixtures. In addition to the uncertainty arising from chemical-to-chemical interactions, it is possible that environmental variables, such as temperature, influence the biological response to chemical challenge, acting as confounding factors in the analysis of mixture effects. Here, we investigate the effects of temperature on the response of fish to a defined mixture of estrogenic chemicals. It was anticipated that the response to the mixture may be exacerbated at higher temperatures, due to an increase in the rate of physiological processing. This is a pertinent issue in view of global climate change. Fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) were exposed to the mixture in parallel exposure studies, which were carried out at different temperatures (20 and 30 degrees C). The estrogenic response was characterised using an established assay, involving the analysis of the egg yolk protein, vitellogenin (VTG). Patterns of VTG gene expression were also analysed using real-time QPCR. The results revealed that there was no effect of temperature on the magnitude of the VTG response after 2 weeks of chemical exposure. However, the analysis of mixture effects at two additional time points (24 h and 7 days) revealed that the response was induced more rapidly at the higher temperature. This trend was apparent from the analysis of effects both at the molecular and biochemical level. Whilst this indicates that climatic effects on water temperature are not a significant issue with regard to the long-term risk assessment of estrogenic chemicals, the relevance of short-term effects is, as yet, unclear. Furthermore, analysis of the patterns of VTG gene expression versus protein induction gives an insight into the physiological mechanisms responsible for temperature-dependent effects on the reproductive phenology of species such as roach. Hence, the data contribute to our understanding of the implications of global climate change for wild fish populations.}, }
@article {pmid18420915, year = {2008}, author = {Baird, A and Maynard, JA}, title = {Coral adaptation in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {320}, number = {5874}, pages = {315-6; author reply 315-6}, doi = {10.1126/science.320.5874.315}, pmid = {18420915}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; }, }
@article {pmid18420903, year = {2008}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. IPCC tunes up for its next report aiming for better, timely results.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {320}, number = {5874}, pages = {300}, doi = {10.1126/science.320.5874.300}, pmid = {18420903}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18419658, year = {2008}, author = {Botzen, WJ and van den Bergh, JC}, title = {Insurance against climate change and flooding in the Netherlands: present, future, and comparison with other countries.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {28}, number = {2}, pages = {413-426}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01035.x}, pmid = {18419658}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {*Climate ; Disasters/*economics ; Forecasting ; France ; Germany ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Insurance ; Netherlands ; Risk Management ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Climate change is projected to cause severe economic losses, which has the potential to affect the insurance sector and public compensation schemes considerably. This article discusses the role insurance can play in adapting to climate change impacts. The particular focus is on the Dutch insurance sector, in view of the Netherlands being extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts. The usefulness of private insurance as an adaptation instrument to increased flood risks is examined, which is currently unavailable in the Netherlands. It is questioned whether the currently dominant role of the Dutch government in providing damage relief is justified from an economic efficiency perspective. Characteristics of flood insurance arrangements in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France are compared in order to identify possible future directions for arrangements in the Netherlands. It is argued that social welfare improves when insurance companies take responsibility for part of the risks associated with climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18418938, year = {2008}, author = {Moffic, HS}, title = {Global warming in Wisconsin.}, journal = {WMJ : official publication of the State Medical Society of Wisconsin}, volume = {107}, number = {1}, pages = {5-6}, pmid = {18418938}, issn = {1098-1861}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Wisconsin ; }, }
@article {pmid18418631, year = {2008}, author = {Nordli, &#xd8; and Wielgolaski, FE and Bakken, AK and Hjeltnes, SH and Måge, F and Sivle, A and Skre, O}, title = {Regional trends for bud burst and flowering of woody plants in Norway as related to climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {52}, number = {7}, pages = {625-639}, pmid = {18418631}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {*Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Flowers ; *Models, Statistical ; Norway ; Plant Shoots/*growth &amp; development ; *Seasons ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Data series for bud burst, beginning of flowering and petal fall for 20 species of deciduous trees and conifers at four sites in different regions of southern Norway have been analysed and related to temperature series. On average, the spring phenophases occurred 7 days earlier during the period 1971-2005. The most significant linear trends were observed for the earliest phases. The trends in this period were compared with trends in other periods, the longest one starting in 1927. Those starting in cold decades and ending in 2005 were in most instances statistically significant, whereas hardly any significant trend appeared for series starting in warm decades. This fact showed that the results of trend studies are very sensitive to the choice of starting year. There were significant decadal variations in 40% of the series. The dates of occurrence of the phenophases, varying from the first days of May to the first days of June, correlated with seasonal temperature series, in most cases strongest to mean temperatures for the seasons March-May and April-May. The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) for January and February appeared to have some predictive power for the date of occurrence of the recorded phases. The basis for this may be that the oscillations described by the index are of importance for the fulfilment of physiological chilling requirements needed to break bud dormancy. The same genotypes of the trees were grown in region West Norway and in Central Norwegian region; during the period 1965-2005 the trends towards earlier bud burst were more pronounced and steeper at the western site.}, }
@article {pmid18416037, year = {2007}, author = {Delgado, JL}, title = {[The climate change view for a physician].}, journal = {Anales de la Real Academia Nacional de Medicina}, volume = {124}, number = {3}, pages = {535-43; discussion 543-4}, pmid = {18416037}, issn = {0034-0634}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Physicians ; }, abstract = {There is no doubt that a climate change is happening with an increase of the mean temperature of the planet and an ensemble of extreme geologic and climatic phenomena. The causes are not well known and they seem produced by gases generated by fossil combustibles. As physicians we are interested in foreseeing solutions to the unknown repercussions of this change in the biosphere and the human life. Most of the world governments are dedicating resources to study this problem. The reduction of the use of this combustibles and the increase of the forest mass seem the most adequate solutions.}, }
@article {pmid18412946, year = {2008}, author = {van Minnen, JG and Strengers, BJ and Eickhout, B and Swart, RJ and Leemans, R}, title = {Quantifying the effectiveness of climate change mitigation through forest plantations and carbon sequestration with an integrated land-use model.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {3}, pmid = {18412946}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Carbon plantations are introduced in climate change policy as an option to slow the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Here we present a methodology to evaluate the potential effectiveness of carbon plantations. The methodology explicitly considers future long-term land-use change around the world and all relevant carbon (C) fluxes, including all natural fluxes. Both issues have generally been ignored in earlier studies.<br><br>RESULTS: Two different baseline scenarios up to 2100 indicate that uncertainties in future land-use change lead to a near 100% difference in estimates of carbon sequestration potentials. Moreover, social, economic and institutional barriers preventing carbon plantations in natural vegetation areas decrease the physical potential by 75-80% or more.Nevertheless, carbon plantations can still considerably contribute to slowing the increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration but only in the long term. The most conservative set of assumptions lowers the increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100 by a 27 ppm and compensates for 5-7% of the total energy-related CO2 emissions. The net sequestration up to 2020 is limited, given the short-term increased need for agricultural land in most regions and the long period needed to compensate for emissions through the establishment of the plantations. The potential is highest in the tropics, despite projections that most of the agricultural expansion will be in these regions. Plantations in high latitudes as Northern Europe and Northern Russia should only be established if the objective to sequester carbon is combined with other activities.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Carbon sequestration in plantations can play an important role in mitigating the build-up of atmospheric CO2. The actual magnitude depends on natural and management factors, social barriers, and the time frame considered. In addition, there are a number of ancillary benefits for local communities and the environment. Carbon plantations are, however, particularly effective in the long term. Furthermore, plantations do not offer the ultimate solution towards stabilizing CO2 concentrations but should be part of a broader package of options with clear energy emission reduction measures.}, }
@article {pmid18412876, year = {2008}, author = {Thong, HY and Maibach, HI}, title = {Global warming and its dermatologic implications.}, journal = {International journal of dermatology}, volume = {47}, number = {5}, pages = {522-524}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-4632.2008.03554.x}, pmid = {18412876}, issn = {1365-4632}, mesh = {*Climate ; Disasters ; Disease Outbreaks ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Skin Diseases, Infectious/*etiology ; Skin Neoplasms/*etiology ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid18409425, year = {2008}, author = {Inouye, DW}, title = {Effects of climate change on phenology, frost damage, and floral abundance of montane wildflowers.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {89}, number = {2}, pages = {353-362}, doi = {10.1890/06-2128.1}, pmid = {18409425}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Asteraceae/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Delphinium/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; Erigeron/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Flowers/*growth &amp; development ; Freezing ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Snow ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The timing of life history traits is central to lifetime fitness and nowhere is this more evident or well studied as in the phenology of flowering in governing plant reproductive success. Recent changes in the timing of environmental events attributable to climate change, such as the date of snowmelt at high altitudes, which initiates the growing season, have had important repercussions for some common perennial herbaceous wildflower species. The phenology of flowering at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (Colorado, USA) is strongly influenced by date of snowmelt, which makes this site ideal for examining phenological responses to climate change. Flower buds of Delphinium barbeyi, Erigeron speciosus, and Helianthella quinquenervis are sensitive to frost, and the earlier beginning of the growing season in recent years has exposed them to more frequent mid-June frost kills. From 1992 to 1998, on average 36.1% of Helianthella buds were frosted, but for 1999-2006 the mean is 73.9%; in only one year since 1998 have plants escaped all frost damage. For all three of these perennial species, there is a significant relationship between the date of snowmelt and the abundance of flowering that summer. Greater snowpack results in later snowmelt, later beginning of the growing season, and less frost mortality of buds. Microhabitat differences in snow accumulation, snowmelt patterns, and cold air drainage during frost events can be significant; an elevation difference of only 12 m between two plots resulted in a temperature difference of almost 2 degrees C in 2006 and a difference of 37% in frost damage to buds. The loss of flowers and therefore seeds can reduce recruitment in these plant populations, and affect pollinators, herbivores, and seed predators that previously relied on them. Other plant species in this environment are similarly susceptible to frost damage so the negative effects for recruitment and for consumers dependent on flowers and seeds could be widespread. These findings point out the paradox of increased frost damage in the face of global warming, provide important insights into the adaptive significance of phenology, and have general implications for flowering plants throughout the region and anywhere climate change is having similar impacts.}, }
@article {pmid18409423, year = {2008}, author = {Miller-Rushing, AJ and Primack, RB}, title = {Global warming and flowering times in Thoreau's Concord: a community perspective.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {89}, number = {2}, pages = {332-341}, doi = {10.1890/07-0068.1}, pmid = {18409423}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Blueberry Plants/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Flowers/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hypericum/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Massachusetts ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {As a result of climate change, many plants are now flowering measurably earlier than they did in the past. However, some species' flowering times have changed much more than others. Data at the community level can clarify the variation in flowering responses to climate change. In order to determine how North American species' flowering times respond to climate, we analyzed a series of previously unstudied records of the dates of first flowering for over 500 plant taxa in Concord, Massachusetts, USA. These records began with six years of observations by the famous naturalist Henry David Thoreau from 1852 to 1858, continued with 16 years of observations by the botanist Alfred Hosmer in 1878 and 1888-1902, and concluded with our own observations in 2004, 2005, and 2006. From 1852 through 2006, Concord warmed by 2.4 degrees C due to global climate change and urbanization. Using a subset of 43 common species, we determined that plants are now flowering seven days earlier on average than they did in Thoreau's times. Plant flowering times were most correlated with mean temperatures in the one or two months just before flowering and were also correlated with January temperatures. Summer-flowering species showed more interannual variation in flowering time than did spring-flowering species, but the flowering times of spring-flowering species correlated more strongly to mean monthly temperatures. In many cases, such as within the genera Betula and Solidago, closely related, co-occurring species responded to climate very differently from one another. The differences in flowering responses to warming could affect relationships in plant communities as warming continues. Common St. John's wort (Hypericum perforatum) and highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) are particularly responsive to changes in climate, are common across much of the United States, and could serve as indicators of biological responses to climate change. We discuss the need for researchers to be aware, when using data sets involving multiple observers, of how varying methodologies, sample sizes, and sampling intensities affect the results. Finally, we emphasize the importance of using historical observations, like those of Thoreau and Hosmer, as sources of long-term data and to increase public awareness of biological responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18405192, year = {2007}, author = {Corvalan, C}, title = {Climate change and human health.}, journal = {World hospitals and health services : the official journal of the International Hospital Federation}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {10-11}, pmid = {18405192}, issn = {1029-0540}, mesh = {*Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid18400023, year = {2008}, author = {Augustin, J and Franzke, N and Augustin, M and Kappas, M}, title = {Does climate change affect the incidence of skin and allergic diseases in Germany?.}, journal = {Journal der Deutschen Dermatologischen Gesellschaft = Journal of the German Society of Dermatology : JDDG}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {632-638}, doi = {10.1111/j.1610-0387.2008.06676.x}, pmid = {18400023}, issn = {1610-0387}, mesh = {*Climate ; Germany/epidemiology ; Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology ; Incidence ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; Risk Factors ; Skin Diseases/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Skin diseases have great socio-economic importance in Germany due to their high and in some cases still-increasing prevalence. Little attention has yet been paid to the influence of the change in climate on these diseases.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: Clarify the evidence of the effects of climate change on the prevalence of skin diseases and allergies in Germany.<br><br>METHODS: First, a theoretical model of the possible mechanisms and influence factors of climate and weather was created for different disease groups (skin malignancies, allergies, skin infections). Then, a systematic online and manual literature search was made for model-derived key words.The relevant publications were selected and evaluated according to a priori criteria.<br><br>RESULTS: From a total of n = 31,221 hits, n = 320 publications remained for evaluation.Changes in the following parameters can be regarded as essential climatologic factors influencing the prevalence of skin and allergic diseases: temperature, UV radiation, precipitation/humidity, cloudiness, and general weather conditions.There were only a few original articles addressed to this topic. Most of them address recurring phenomena (especially levels of airborne pollen), UV radiation or ozone (and the ozone hole). Quantitative statements, prognosis models and climate scenarios have not yet been published for Germany with respect to skin diseases.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Only few scientific articles on the relationship between climate changes and the prevalence of skin diseases have been published. They do not allow a reliable statement on future developments. The outlook for changes in prevalence requires further clarification using published climate models.}, }
@article {pmid18395563, year = {2008}, author = {Costello, A and Grant, M and Horton, R}, title = {The Lancet-UCL Commission: health effects of climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {371}, number = {9619}, pages = {1145-1147}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60502-4}, pmid = {18395563}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Adult ; Child ; Child Welfare ; *Climate ; Female ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Journalism, Medical ; *Policy Making ; Public Health/*education ; Women's Health ; }, }
@article {pmid18389545, year = {2008}, author = {Bevan, J}, title = {Global warming questioned.}, journal = {Australian nursing journal (July 1993)}, volume = {15}, number = {7}, pages = {3}, pmid = {18389545}, issn = {1320-3185}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid18387887, year = {2008}, author = {Coote, A}, title = {How should health professionals take action against climate change?.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {336}, number = {7647}, pages = {733-734}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.39538.509456.80}, pmid = {18387887}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Environmental Pollution/analysis/prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Professional Practice ; }, abstract = {BMA report outlines the problems, but falls short in providing solutions}, }
@article {pmid18387251, year = {2008}, author = {Morrison, L}, title = {Climate change... what can we do?.}, journal = {The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners}, volume = {58}, number = {549}, pages = {290}, pmid = {18387251}, issn = {0960-1643}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; Carbon Dioxide/*adverse effects ; *Climate ; Family Practice/organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Travel ; }, }
@article {pmid18384234, year = {2008}, author = {Nogués-Bravo, D and Rodríguez, J and Hortal, J and Batra, P and Araújo, MB}, title = {Climate change, humans, and the extinction of the woolly mammoth.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {e79}, pmid = {18384234}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Computational Biology ; Elephants/*physiology ; *Extinction, Biological ; History, Ancient ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Woolly mammoths inhabited Eurasia and North America from late Middle Pleistocene (300 ky BP [300,000 years before present]), surviving through different climatic cycles until they vanished in the Holocene (3.6 ky BP). The debate about why the Late Quaternary extinctions occurred has centred upon environmental and human-induced effects, or a combination of both. However, testing these two hypotheses-climatic and anthropogenic-has been hampered by the difficulty of generating quantitative estimates of the relationship between the contraction of the mammoth's geographical range and each of the two hypotheses. We combined climate envelope models and a population model with explicit treatment of woolly mammoth-human interactions to measure the extent to which a combination of climate changes and increased human pressures might have led to the extinction of the species in Eurasia. Climate conditions for woolly mammoths were measured across different time periods: 126 ky BP, 42 ky BP, 30 ky BP, 21 ky BP, and 6 ky BP. We show that suitable climate conditions for the mammoth reduced drastically between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, and 90% of its geographical range disappeared between 42 ky BP and 6 ky BP, with the remaining suitable areas in the mid-Holocene being mainly restricted to Arctic Siberia, which is where the latest records of woolly mammoths in continental Asia have been found. Results of the population models also show that the collapse of the climatic niche of the mammoth caused a significant drop in their population size, making woolly mammoths more vulnerable to the increasing hunting pressure from human populations. The coincidence of the disappearance of climatically suitable areas for woolly mammoths and the increase in anthropogenic impacts in the Holocene, the coup de grâce, likely set the place and time for the extinction of the woolly mammoth.}, }
@article {pmid18380657, year = {2008}, author = {Gilles, J and David, JF and Duvallet, G and Tillard, E}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on stable flies, investigated along an altitudinal gradient.}, journal = {Medical and veterinary entomology}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {74-81}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2915.2008.00717.x}, pmid = {18380657}, issn = {0269-283X}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Animal Husbandry/*methods ; Animals ; Cattle ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; Muscidae/*growth &amp; development ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; Reunion ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Adult populations of stable flies were sampled along an altitudinal transect in Reunion Island to determine whether higher temperatures were associated with: (a) higher numbers of flies; (b) a longer season of infestation, and/or (c) different responses to warming in the cosmopolitan Stomoxys calcitrans (L) and the tropical Stomoxys niger niger Macquart (Diptera: Muscidae). Flies of both species were trapped at seven farms situated at four altitudes (100-1600 m a.s.l.) over a 90-week period. For both species, there were no relationships between the maximum or mean fly abundance and altitude. Only minimum abundance in winter was significantly higher at lower altitudes. Maximum and mean abundances differed significantly between nearby farms under similar climatic conditions. Seasonal fluctuations in fly abundance changed along the gradient. At lower altitudes, population growth started earlier after the winter but abundance declined earlier in summer, which resulted in a shift of the season of infestation. Seasonal fluctuations of both species were strongly related to climate variables at high altitude, mainly temperature. However, climate variables explained a decreasing proportion of the variations in abundance at lower altitudes. Stomoxys calcitrans was the most abundant species overall, but the proportion of S. n. niger increased significantly at lower altitudes and this species became predominant at 100 m a.s.l. It is concluded that stable fly infestations are unlikely to worsen in response to global warming. Maximum abundance is limited by local factors, possibly larval resources, which suggests that adequate husbandry practices could override the impact of climate change. Because S. n. niger tends to be the predominant pest at elevated temperatures, it is recommended that this species should not be introduced in areas where climate is changing.}, }
@article {pmid20040999, year = {2008}, author = {Pandve, HT}, title = {Awareness regarding global warming: Popular media like films need to contribute.}, journal = {Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {41}, pmid = {20040999}, issn = {1998-3670}, }
@article {pmid19777138, year = {2008}, author = {Ashton, N and Lewis, SG and Parfitt, SA and Penkman, KE and Russell Coope, G}, title = {New evidence for complex climate change in MIS 11 from Hoxne, Suffolk, UK.}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews}, volume = {27}, number = {7-8}, pages = {652-668}, pmid = {19777138}, issn = {0277-3791}, abstract = {The climatic signal of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 is well-documented in marine and ice-sheet isotopic records and is known to comprise at least two major warm episodes with an intervening cool phase. Terrestrial records of MIS 11, though of high resolution, are often fragmentary and their chronology is poorly constrained. However, some notable exceptions include sequences from the maar lakes in France and Tenaghi Philippon in Greece. In the UK, the Hoxnian Interglacial has been considered to correlate with MIS 11. New investigations at Hoxne (Suffolk) provide an opportunity to re-evaluate the terrestrial record of MIS 11. At Hoxne, the type Hoxnian Interglacial sediments are overlain by a post-Hoxnian cold-temperate sequence. The interglacial sediments and the later temperate phase are separated by the so-called 'Arctic Bed' from which cold-climate macroscopic plant and beetle remains have been recovered. The later temperate phase was deposited during an episode of boreal woodland and is associated with the artefacts, a diverse vertebrate fauna and molluscs. New amino acid geochronological data and biostratigraphical considerations suggest that the post-Hoxnian sequence correlates with late substages of MIS 11. The paper further investigates the correlation of the sequence at Hoxne with the palynological sequences found elsewhere in Europe and adjacent offshore areas.}, }
@article {pmid18369109, year = {2008}, author = {Service, RF}, title = {Climate change. Study fingers soot as a major player in global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {319}, number = {5871}, pages = {1745}, doi = {10.1126/science.319.5871.1745}, pmid = {18369109}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18366257, year = {2008}, author = {Lips, KR and Diffendorfer, J and Mendelson, JR and Sears, MW}, title = {Riding the wave: reconciling the roles of disease and climate change in amphibian declines.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {e72}, pmid = {18366257}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Amphibians/*microbiology/*physiology ; Animal Diseases/*epidemiology/*microbiology ; Animals ; Central America/epidemiology ; Chytridiomycota/physiology ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Greenhouse Effect ; South America/epidemiology ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {We review the evidence for the role of climate change in triggering disease outbreaks of chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease of amphibians. Both climatic anomalies and disease-related extirpations are recent phenomena, and effects of both are especially noticeable at high elevations in tropical areas, making it difficult to determine whether they are operating separately or synergistically. We compiled reports of amphibian declines from Lower Central America and Andean South America to create maps and statistical models to test our hypothesis of spatiotemporal spread of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and to update the elevational patterns of decline in frogs belonging to the genus Atelopus. We evaluated claims of climate change influencing the spread of Bd by including error into estimates of the relationship between air temperature and last year observed. Available data support the hypothesis of multiple introductions of this invasive pathogen into South America and subsequent spread along the primary Andean cordilleras. Additional analyses found no evidence to support the hypothesis that climate change has been driving outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis, as has been posited in the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis. Future studies should increase retrospective surveys of museum specimens from throughout the Andes and should study the landscape genetics of Bd to map fine-scale patterns of geographic spread to identify transmission routes and processes.}, }
@article {pmid18364308, year = {2008}, author = {Peña, C and Wahlberg, N}, title = {Prehistorical climate change increased diversification of a group of butterflies.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {274-278}, pmid = {18364308}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*genetics ; Animals ; Base Sequence ; Bayes Theorem ; Butterflies/*anatomy &amp; histology/*genetics ; *Ecosystem ; Genes, Insect/genetics ; Models, Genetic ; Molecular Sequence Data ; *Phylogeny ; Poaceae ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Satyrinae butterflies (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and grasses (Poaceae) are very diverse and distributed worldwide. Most Satyrinae use grasses as host plants, but the temporal scale of this tight association is not known. Here, we present a phylogenetic study of Satyrinae butterflies and related groups, based on 5.1 kilobases from six gene regions and 238 morphological characters for all major lineages in the 'satyrine clade'. Estimates of divergence times calibrated using a fossil from the Late Oligocene indicate that the species-rich tribe Satyrini diversified to its current 2200 species simultaneously with the expansion and radiation of grasses during the dramatic cooling and drying up of the Earth in the Oligocene. We suggest that the adaptive radiation of grass feeders in Satyrini has been facilitated by the ubiquitousness of grasses since 25Myr ago, which was triggered by a change in global climate.}, }
@article {pmid18363202, year = {2008}, author = {Barclay, E}, title = {Is climate change affecting dengue in the Americas?.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {371}, number = {9617}, pages = {973-974}, doi = {10.1016/s0140-6736(08)60435-3}, pmid = {18363202}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Aedes ; Animals ; Dengue/*epidemiology/mortality/transmission ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Mexico/epidemiology ; South America/epidemiology ; United States/epidemiology ; Urban Health/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid18363196, year = {2008}, author = {Rohde, G}, title = {[The effects of air pollution and climate change on pulmonary diseases].}, journal = {Deutsche medizinische Wochenschrift (1946)}, volume = {133}, number = {14}, pages = {733-736}, doi = {10.1055/s-2008-1067318}, pmid = {18363196}, issn = {1439-4413}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Asthma/epidemiology/etiology/mortality ; *Climate ; Dust ; Germany/epidemiology ; Humans ; Lung Diseases/*epidemiology/*etiology/mortality ; Morbidity ; Nitrogen Dioxide/adverse effects ; Ozone/adverse effects ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology/etiology/mortality ; }, abstract = {From as early as 1930 there has been evidence for effects on health of air pollution. Ozone, particulates and nitrogen dioxide are the most important pollutants today. The acute increase in air pollution leads to a significant raise in morbidity and mortality. Hospital admissions of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma are more frequent during these periods. Chronic exposure to pollution causes bronchitis, accelerated decline of lung function and impaired maturing of the lungs. Ozone and a residence in proximity to major roads seem to play a role in the development of asthma. A further important environmental factor is climate change, which has an impact on air pollution but also on distribution and quality of aero-allergens and the dissemination and transmission of respiratory pathogens.}, }
@article {pmid18361155, year = {2008}, author = {Wepner, U}, title = {[Pollen allergy patients suffer because of air pollution and climate change. Caution during thunderstorm -- asthma alarm!].}, journal = {MMW Fortschritte der Medizin}, volume = {150}, number = {8}, pages = {15}, pmid = {18361155}, issn = {1438-3276}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Antioxidants/therapeutic use ; Asthma/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Climate ; Humans ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid18359946, year = {2008}, author = {Soares, P and Trejaut, JA and Loo, JH and Hill, C and Mormina, M and Lee, CL and Chen, YM and Hudjashov, G and Forster, P and Macaulay, V and Bulbeck, D and Oppenheimer, S and Lin, M and Richards, MB}, title = {Climate change and postglacial human dispersals in southeast Asia.}, journal = {Molecular biology and evolution}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1209-1218}, doi = {10.1093/molbev/msn068}, pmid = {18359946}, issn = {1537-1719}, mesh = {Asia, Southeastern ; Base Sequence ; DNA, Mitochondrial/classification/*genetics/history ; *Emigration and Immigration/history ; Genetic Variation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Haplotypes ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; *Ice Cover ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {Modern humans have been living in Island Southeast Asia (ISEA) for at least 50,000 years. Largely because of the influence of linguistic studies, however, which have a shallow time depth, the attention of archaeologists and geneticists has usually been focused on the last 6,000 years--in particular, on a proposed Neolithic dispersal from China and Taiwan. Here we use complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genome sequencing to spotlight some earlier processes that clearly had a major role in the demographic history of the region but have hitherto been unrecognized. We show that haplogroup E, an important component of mtDNA diversity in the region, evolved in situ over the last 35,000 years and expanded dramatically throughout ISEA around the beginning of the Holocene, at the time when the ancient continent of Sundaland was being broken up into the present-day archipelago by rising sea levels. It reached Taiwan and Near Oceania more recently, within the last approximately 8,000 years. This suggests that global warming and sea-level rises at the end of the Ice Age, 15,000-7,000 years ago, were the main forces shaping modern human diversity in the region.}, }
@article {pmid18357816, year = {2008}, author = {Sachs, JD}, title = {Climate change after Bali.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {298}, number = {3}, pages = {22}, pmid = {18357816}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid18356384, year = {2008}, author = {}, title = {Chikungunya reaches northern Italy: effect of global warming?.}, journal = {Archives of disease in childhood}, volume = {93}, number = {4}, pages = {312}, pmid = {18356384}, issn = {1468-2044}, }
@article {pmid18351228, year = {2007}, author = {Hales, S and Baker, M and Howden-Chapman, P and Menne, B and Woodruff, R and Woodward, A}, title = {Implications of global climate change for housing, human settlements and public health.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {295-302}, doi = {10.1515/reveh.2007.22.4.295}, pmid = {18351228}, issn = {0048-7554}, mesh = {City Planning ; Disasters ; *Ecosystem ; Environment Design ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; *Housing ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Global climate change has profound implications for human societies. The present---ecologically unsustainable--trajectory of human development fails to provide for the basic needs of a substantial fraction of the global population, while diminishing the prospects for future generations. Human-caused climate change has already begun to affect weather patterns, physical and biological phenomena, and vulnerable human communities. Because the social processes of production and consumption have their own momentum, and because carbon dioxide has a long atmospheric lifetime, further climate change is inevitable over the coming century, even allowing for the adoption of mitigation measures. This situation implies that we should also try to reduce, and where possible to prevent, the adverse effects of climate changes by planned adaptation. Will human settlements be able to provide a healthy living environment and shelter from extreme climate events, such as cyclones and heat waves? In this paper, we review the nexus between human health, climate change, and the planning of housing and human settlements. We conclude that adapting to a rapidly changing global environment will be a major challenge, in the context of increasing population and per capita consumption, without increasing pressures on natural systems. Energy-efficient cities and the creation of opportunities for poor countries will be important elements of people centered, ecologically sustainable, development in the twenty-first century.}, }
@article {pmid18351225, year = {2007}, author = {Buchner, V}, title = {Global climate change and human health.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {i-ii}, pmid = {18351225}, issn = {0048-7554}, mesh = {Disasters ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid18351109, year = {2008}, author = {Blowers, P and Moline, DM and Tetrault, KF and Wheeler, RR and Tuchawena, SL}, title = {Global warming potentials of Hydrofluoroethers.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {42}, number = {4}, pages = {1301-1307}, doi = {10.1021/es0706201}, pmid = {18351109}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Ethers ; Fluorocarbons/*toxicity ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Kinetics ; }, abstract = {Global warming potentials are estimated for hydrofluoroethers, which are an emerging class of compounds for industrial use. Comparisons are made to the limited data previously available before observations about molecular design are discussed. We quantify how molecular structure can be manipulated to reduce environmental impacts due to global warming. We further highlight the need for additional research on this class of compounds so environmental performance can be assessed for green design.}, }
@article {pmid18341119, year = {2008}, author = {Wright, RF and Kaste, O and de Wit, HA and Tjomsland, T and Bloemerts, M and Molvaer, J and Selvik, JR}, title = {Effect of climate change on fluxes of nitrogen from the Tovdal River basin, Norway, to adjoining marine areas.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {64-72}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2008)37[64:eoccof]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {18341119}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrates/*analysis ; Nitrogen ; Norway ; Rain/chemistry ; Seasons ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {The mass transport model TEOTIL was used to project nitrate (NO3) fluxes from the Tovdal River basin, southernmost Norway, given four scenarios of climate change. Forests, uplands, and open water currently account for 90% of the NO3 flux. Climate scenarios for 2071-2100 suggest increased temperature by 2-4 degrees C and precipitation by 3-11%. Climate experiments and long-term monitoring were used to estimate future rates of nitrogen (N) leaching. More water will run through the terrestrial catchments during the winter but less will run in the spring. The annual NO3 flux from the Tovdal River to the adjoining Topdalsfjord is projected to remain unchanged, but with more NO3 delivered in the winter and less in the spring. Algal blooms in coastal waters can be expected to occur earlier in the year. Major sources of uncertainty are in the long-term fate of N stored in soil organic matter and the impacts of forest management.}, }
@article {pmid18341118, year = {2008}, author = {de Wit, HA and Wright, RF}, title = {Projected stream water fluxes of NO3 and total organic carbon from the Storgama headwater catchment, Norway, under climate change and reduced acid deposition.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {56-63}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2008)37[56:pswfon]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {18341118}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Acid Rain/analysis ; Carbon/*analysis ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Nitrates/*analysis ; Regression Analysis ; Seasons ; Snow/chemistry ; Temperature ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Fluctuations in the 20-year record of nitrate (NO3) and total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations and fluxes in runoff at the small headwater catchment Storgama, southern Norway, were related to climate and acid deposition. The long-term decline in NO3 related to reduced NO3 deposition and increased winter discharge, whereas the long-term increase in TOC related to reduced sulfur deposition. Multiple regression models describing long-term trends and seasonal variability in these records were used to project future concentrations given scenarios of climate change and acid deposition. All scenarios indicated reduced NO3 fluxes and increased TOC fluxes; the largest projected changes for the period 2071-2100 were -86% and +24%, respectively. Uncertainties are that the predicted future temperatures are considerably higher than the historical record. Also, nonlinear responses of ecosystem processes (nitrogen [N] mineralization) to temperature, N-enrichment of soils, and step-changes in environmental conditions may affect future leaching of carbon and N.}, }
@article {pmid18341113, year = {2008}, author = {Hole, L and Engardt, M}, title = {Climate change impact on atmospheric nitrogen deposition in northwestern Europe: a model study.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {9-17}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2008)37[9:ccioan]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {18341113}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Chemical Precipitation ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Geography ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen Oxides/*analysis ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {A high-resolution chemical transport model, driven by meteorology representing current and future climate, was used to investigate the effects of possible future changes in climate on nitrogen deposition in northwestern Europe. The model system was able to resolve the climatology of precipitation and chemical properties observed in northern Europe during the 1980s, albeit with some underestimation of the temporal and spatial variability of meteorological parameters and chemical components. The results point toward a substantial increase (30% or more) in nitrogen deposition over western Norway as a consequence of increasing precipitation but more moderate changes for other areas. Deposition of oxidized nitrogen will increase more than the deposition of reduced nitrogen. Over Sweden, oxidized nitrogen will increase only marginally and reduced nitrogen will decrease, although annual precipitation is expected to increase here as well. This is probably because more reduced nitrogen will be removed further west in Scandinavia because of the strong increase in precipitation along the Norwegian coast. The total deposition of oxidized nitrogen over Norway is expected to increase from 96 Gg N y(-1) during the current climate to 107 Gg N y(-1) by 2100 due only to changes in climate. The corresponding values for Sweden are more modest, from 137 Gg N y(-1) to 139 Gg N y(-1).}, }
@article {pmid18341112, year = {2008}, author = {Stuanes, AO and de Wit, HA and Hole, LR and Kaste, O and Mulder, J and Riise, G and Wright, RF}, title = {Effect of climate change on flux of N and C: air-land-freshwater-marine links: synthesis.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {2-8}, pmid = {18341112}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Air ; Carbon/*analysis ; Chemical Precipitation ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; Nitrates/analysis ; Nitrogen Oxides/*analysis ; Norway ; Oxides/analysis ; *Seasons ; Soil ; Sulfur ; }, abstract = {Projected climate change might increase the deposition of nitrogen by about 10% to seminatural ecosystems in southern Norway. At Storgama, increased precipitation in the growing season increased the fluxes of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) in proportion to the water flux. In winter, soil temperatures near 0 degrees C, common under a snowpack, induced higher runoff of inorganic nitrogen (N) and lower runoff of TOC. By contrast, soil temperatures below freezing, caused by little snow accumulation (expected in a warmer world), reduced runoff of inorganic N, TON, and TOC. Long-term monitoring data showed that reduced snowpack can cause either decreased or increased N leaching, depending on interactions with N deposition, soil temperature regime, and winter discharge. Seasonal variation in TOC was mainly climatically controlled, whereas deposition of sulfate and nitrate (NO3) explained the long-term TOC increase. Upscaling to the river basin scale showed that the annual flux of NO3 will remain unchanged in response to climate change projections.}, }
@article {pmid18341111, year = {2008}, author = {Stuanes, AO and Mulder, J and Riise, G and Wright, RF and Kessler, E}, title = {Effects of climate change on flux of nitrogen and carbon: air-land-freshwater-marine links.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, pmid = {18341111}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Air ; Carbon/*analysis ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; Norway ; Soil ; }, }
@article {pmid18338699, year = {2008}, author = {Bogner, J and Pipatti, R and Hashimoto, S and Diaz, C and Mareckova, K and Diaz, L and Kjeldsen, P and Monni, S and Faaij, A and Gao, Q and Zhang, T and Ahmed, MA and Sutamihardja, RT and Gregory, R and , }, title = {Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group III (Mitigation).}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {11-32}, doi = {10.1177/0734242X07088433}, pmid = {18338699}, issn = {0734-242X}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; Environmental Monitoring ; Gases/analysis/metabolism ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Incineration/*methods ; Methane/analysis/metabolism ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis/metabolism ; Refuse Disposal/*methods ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/*methods ; Waste Management/methods/*standards ; }, abstract = {Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from post-consumer waste and wastewater are a small contributor (about 3%) to total global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Emissions for 2004-2005 totalled 1.4 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) relative to total emissions from all sectors of 49 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) [including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and F-gases normalized according to their 100-year global warming potentials (GWP)]. The CH4 from landfills and wastewater collectively accounted for about 90% of waste sector emissions, or about 18% of global anthropogenic methane emissions (which were about 14% of the global total in 2004). Wastewater N2O and CO2 from the incineration of waste containing fossil carbon (plastics; synthetic textiles) are minor sources. Due to the wide range of mature technologies that can mitigate GHG emissions from waste and provide public health, environmental protection, and sustainable development co-benefits, existing waste management practices can provide effective mitigation of GHG emissions from this sector. Current mitigation technologies include landfill gas recovery, improved landfill practices, and engineered wastewater management. In addition, significant GHG generation is avoided through controlled composting, state-of-the-art incineration, and expanded sanitation coverage. Reduced waste generation and the exploitation of energy from waste (landfill gas, incineration, anaerobic digester biogas) produce an indirect reduction of GHG emissions through the conservation of raw materials, improved energy and resource efficiency, and fossil fuel avoidance. Flexible strategies and financial incentives can expand waste management options to achieve GHG mitigation goals; local technology decisions are influenced by a variety of factors such as waste quantity and characteristics, cost and financing issues, infrastructure requirements including available land area, collection and transport considerations, and regulatory constraints. Existing studies on mitigation potentials and costs for the waste sector tend to focus on landfill CH4 as the baseline. The commercial recovery of landfill CH4 as a source of renewable energy has been practised at full scale since 1975 and currently exceeds 105 Mt CO2-eq year(-1). Although landfill CH4 emissions from developed countries have been largely stabilized, emissions from developing countries are increasing as more controlled (anaerobic) landfilling practices are implemented; these emissions could be reduced by accelerating the introduction of engineered gas recovery, increasing rates of waste minimization and recycling, and implementing alternative waste management strategies provided they are affordable, effective, and sustainable. Aided by Kyoto mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), the total global economic mitigation potential for reducing waste sector emissions in 2030 is estimated to be > 1000 Mt CO2-eq (or 70% of estimated emissions) at costs below 100 US$ t(-1) CO2-eq year(-1). An estimated 20-30% of projected emissions for 2030 can be reduced at negative cost and 30-50% at costs < 20 US$ t(-) CO2-eq year(-1). As landfills produce CH4 for several decades, incineration and composting are complementary mitigation measures to landfill gas recovery in the short- to medium-term--at the present time, there are > 130 Mt waste year(-1) incinerated at more than 600 plants. Current uncertainties with respect to emissions and mitigation potentials could be reduced by more consistent national definitions, coordinated international data collection, standardized data analysis, field validation of models, and consistent application of life-cycle assessment tools inclusive of fossil fuel offsets.}, }
@article {pmid18338697, year = {2008}, author = {Ragoessnig, A and Hilger, H}, title = {Waste management: stepping up to the climate change challenge.}, journal = {Waste management &amp; research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {3-4}, doi = {10.1177/0734242x080260010601}, pmid = {18338697}, issn = {0734-242X}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Waste Management/*methods/*standards ; }, }
@article {pmid18333472, year = {2007}, author = {Yang, WQ and Deng, RJ and Zhang, J}, title = {[Forest litter decomposition and its responses to global climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {18}, number = {12}, pages = {2889-2895}, pmid = {18333472}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Atmosphere/analysis ; Carbon/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; Soil/analysis ; Soil Microbiology ; Trees/growth &amp; development/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Litter decomposition is one of the important processes in forest ecosystem, which is controlled by both biotic and abiotic factors such as climate, litter quality, and soil organisms. Up to now, numerous studies have been made on the dynamics of aboveground litter in different forest ecosystems, nutrient release during its decomposition, and effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the decomposition, but less information has been reported on the decomposition of belowground forest litter. Recently, the responses of forest litter decomposition to global climate change characterized by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature have got worldwide concern, but there remains uncertainty in research results. In the further study, more attention should be paid on the contribution of forest litter decomposition to soil organic carbon sequestration, the physical, chemical and biological processes of below- and above-ground litter decomposition, the responses of forest litter decomposition to the ecological factors (e.g. seasonal freeze-thaw cycle and drying-rewetting cycle) and their interactions, and the mechanisms of litter (especially belowground litter) decomposition responses to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18332386, year = {2008}, author = {Greer, A and Ng, V and Fisman, D}, title = {Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {178}, number = {6}, pages = {715-722}, pmid = {18332386}, issn = {1488-2329}, support = {R21 AI065826/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; R21AI065826-01A1/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*etiology/transmission ; Disease Transmission, Infectious ; *Environment ; Female ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; North America/epidemiology ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is inevitable--the combustion of fossil fuels has resulted in a buildup of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere, causing unprecedented changes to the earth's climate. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that North America will experience marked changes in weather patterns in coming decades, including warmer temperatures and increased rainfall, summertime droughts and extreme weather events (e.g., tornadoes and hurricanes). Although these events may have direct consequences for health (e.g., injuries and displacement of populations due to thermal stress), they are also likely to cause important changes in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases, including vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, water-and food-borne diseases and diseases with environmental reservoirs (e.g., endemic fungal diseases). Changes in weather patterns and ecosystems, and health consequences of climate change will probably be most severe in far northern regions (e.g., the Arctic). We provide an overview of the expected nature and direction of such changes, which pose current and future challenges to health care providers and public health agencies.}, }
@article {pmid18331425, year = {2008}, author = {Wilf, P}, title = {Insect-damaged fossil leaves record food web response to ancient climate change and extinction.}, journal = {The New phytologist}, volume = {178}, number = {3}, pages = {486-502}, doi = {10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02395.x}, pmid = {18331425}, issn = {1469-8137}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Food Chain ; *Fossils ; Insecta/*physiology ; Plant Leaves/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {Plants and herbivorous insects have dominated terrestrial ecosystems for over 300 million years. Uniquely in the fossil record, foliage with well-preserved insect damage offers abundant and diverse information both about producers and about ecological and sometimes taxonomic groups of consumers. These data are ideally suited to investigate food web response to environmental perturbations, and they represent an invaluable deep-time complement to neoecological studies of global change. Correlations between feeding diversity and temperature, between herbivory and leaf traits that are modulated by climate, and between insect diversity and plant diversity can all be investigated in deep time. To illustrate, I emphasize recent work on the time interval from the latest Cretaceous through the middle Eocene (67-47 million years ago (Ma)), including two significant events that affected life: the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (65.5 Ma) and its ensuing recovery; and globally warming temperatures across the Paleocene-Eocene boundary (55.8 Ma). Climatic effects predicted from neoecology generally hold true in these deep-time settings. Rising temperature is associated with increased herbivory in multiple studies, a result with major predictive importance for current global warming. Diverse floras are usually associated with diverse insect damage; however, recovery from the end-Cretaceous extinction reveals uncorrelated plant and insect diversity as food webs rebuilt chaotically from a drastically simplified state. Calibration studies from living forests are needed to improve interpretation of the fossil data.}, }
@article {pmid18330779, year = {2008}, author = {Wolf, J and Salo, R}, title = {Water, water, everywhere, nor any drop to drink: climate change delusion.}, journal = {The Australian and New Zealand journal of psychiatry}, volume = {42}, number = {4}, pages = {350}, doi = {10.1080/00048670701881603}, pmid = {18330779}, issn = {1440-1614}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Antidepressive Agents, Second-Generation/therapeutic use ; Antipsychotic Agents/therapeutic use ; Benzodiazepines/therapeutic use ; Climate ; Clonazepam/therapeutic use ; Dehydration/psychology ; Delusions/*diagnosis/drug therapy/*psychology ; Depressive Disorder/*diagnosis/drug therapy/*psychology ; Fluoxetine/therapeutic use ; GABA Modulators/therapeutic use ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Male ; Olanzapine ; Psychotic Disorders/*diagnosis/drug therapy/*psychology ; Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid18321535, year = {2008}, author = {Martins, I and Marcotegui, A and Marques, JC}, title = {Impacts of macroalgal spores on the dynamics of adult macroalgae in a eutrophic estuary: high versus low hydrodynamic seasons and long-term simulations for global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {56}, number = {5}, pages = {984-998}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2008.01.025}, pmid = {18321535}, issn = {0025-326X}, mesh = {Biomass ; Computer Simulation ; *Eutrophication ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Light ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Reproduction ; Salinity ; Seasons ; Spores/growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Ulva/*physiology ; }, abstract = {A model describing macroalgal early life stages and adult dynamics was used to quantify the effects of non-adult forms on the productivity of adult macroalgae in a eutrophic estuary. Predictions indicate that during years with mild winters and low rainfall, spring blooms will occur at the expense of the growth and reproduction of overwintering adults and without the contribution of the spore bank. In these circumstances, there is a positive correlation between the intensity of the blooms and the biomass of overwintering adults until a maximum threshold value. On the contrary, in years with high rainfall and low or inexistent biomass of overwintering adults, the onset of adult's growth depends on the biomass of viable dormant spores, the growing season occurs later and adult productivity is very limited. Long-term predictions for climate change scenarios suggest that, in general, global warming will have adverse affects on Ulva intestinalis productivity, with the adults being more affected than the early life stages.}, }
@article {pmid18315875, year = {2008}, author = {Gurney, KR and Raymond, L}, title = {Targeting deforestation rates in climate change policy: a "Preservation Pathway" approach.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {2}, pmid = {18315875}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {We present a new methodological approach to incorporating deforestation within the international climate change negotiating regime. The approach, called "Preservation Pathway" combines the desire for forest preservation with the need to reduce emissions associated with forest loss by focusing on the relative rate of change of forest cover as the criteria by which countries gain access to trading preserved forest carbon stocks. This approach avoids the technically challenging task of quantifying historical or future deforestation emission baselines. Rather, it places emphasis on improving quantification of contemporary stocks and the relative decline in deforestation rates necessary to preserve those stocks. This approach places emphasis on the complete emissions trajectory necessary to attain an agreed-upon preserved forest and as such, meets both forest conservation and climate goals simultaneously.}, }
@article {pmid18313819, year = {2008}, author = {Bytnerowicz, A and Arbaugh, M and Fenn, M and Gimeno, BS and Paoletti, E}, title = {WITHDRAWN: Forests under Anthropogenic Pressure - Effects of Air Pollution, Climate Change and Urban Development - Introduction.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2008.01.026}, pmid = {18313819}, issn = {1873-6424}, }
@article {pmid18310404, year = {2008}, author = {Rosias, PP and Jöbsis, Q and van de Kant, K and Robroeks, C and van Schayck, CP and Zimmermann, LJ and Dompeling, E}, title = {Global condensation: a "climate change" towards better standardisation of exhaled breath condensate measurements.}, journal = {The European respiratory journal}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {684-685}, doi = {10.1183/09031936.00157907}, pmid = {18310404}, issn = {1399-3003}, mesh = {Biomarkers/analysis ; Breath Tests/*methods ; Humans ; Nitrogen Oxides/*analysis ; Proteins/*analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid18310325, year = {2008}, author = {Kauserud, H and Stige, LC and Vik, JO and Okland, RH and Høiland, K and Stenseth, NC}, title = {Mushroom fruiting and climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {105}, number = {10}, pages = {3811-3814}, pmid = {18310325}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agaricales/*physiology ; *Climate ; Fruiting Bodies, Fungal/*physiology ; Geography ; Norway ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Many species of fungi produce ephemeral autumnal fruiting bodies to spread and multiply. Despite their attraction for mushroom pickers and their economic importance, little is known about the phenology of fruiting bodies. Using approximately 34,500 dated herbarium records we analyzed changes in the autumnal fruiting date of mushrooms in Norway over the period 1940-2006. We show that the time of fruiting has changed considerably over this time period, with an average delay in fruiting since 1980 of 12.9 days. The changes differ strongly between species and groups of species. Early-fruiting species have experienced a stronger delay than late fruiters, resulting in a more compressed fruiting season. There is also a geographic trend of earlier fruiting in the northern and more continental parts of Norway than in more southern and oceanic parts. Incorporating monthly precipitation and temperature variables into the analyses provides indications that increasing temperatures during autumn and winter months bring about significant delay of fruiting both in the same year and in the subsequent year. The recent changes in autumnal mushroom phenology coincide with the extension of the growing season caused by global climate change and are likely to continue under the current climate change scenario.}, }
@article {pmid18306439, year = {2008}, author = {Griffiths, P}, title = {Viruses in the era of global warming.}, journal = {Reviews in medical virology}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {69-71}, doi = {10.1002/rmv.572}, pmid = {18306439}, issn = {1052-9276}, mesh = {*Alphavirus Infections/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission/virology ; Animals ; Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; *Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission/virology ; Europe, Eastern/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Mexico/epidemiology ; Mosquito Control/*methods ; *Severe Dengue/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control/transmission/virology ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid18304110, year = {2008}, author = {Kellstedt, PM and Zahran, S and Vedlitz, A}, title = {Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {113-126}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01010.x}, pmid = {18304110}, issn = {1539-6924}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Attitude to Health ; *Climate ; *Electronic Data Processing ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Perception ; Proportional Hazards Models ; *Risk Assessment ; *Self Efficacy ; United States ; }, abstract = {Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.}, }
@article {pmid18300367, year = {2008}, author = {Senior, K}, title = {Climate change and infectious disease: a dangerous liaison?.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {92-93}, doi = {10.1016/s1473-3099(08)70008-2}, pmid = {18300367}, issn = {1473-3099}, mesh = {Animals ; Child, Preschool ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; Developing Countries ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Vectors ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid18295004, year = {2008}, author = {The Lancet, }, title = {Adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {371}, number = {9613}, pages = {624}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60276-7}, pmid = {18295004}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate ; Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Risk Management ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid18287081, year = {2008}, author = {Milinski, M and Sommerfeld, RD and Krambeck, HJ and Reed, FA and Marotzke, J}, title = {The collective-risk social dilemma and the prevention of simulated dangerous climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {105}, number = {7}, pages = {2291-2294}, pmid = {18287081}, issn = {1091-6490}, support = {F32 HG003801/HG/NHGRI NIH HHS/United States ; F32HG03801/HG/NHGRI NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Computer Simulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Probability ; Risk Factors ; Social Change ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Will a group of people reach a collective target through individual contributions when everyone suffers individually if the target is missed? This "collective-risk social dilemma" exists in various social scenarios, the globally most challenging one being the prevention of dangerous climate change. Reaching the collective target requires individual sacrifice, with benefits to all but no guarantee that others will also contribute. It even seems tempting to contribute less and save money to induce others to contribute more, hence the dilemma and the risk of failure. Here, we introduce the collective-risk social dilemma and simulate it in a controlled experiment: Will a group of people reach a fixed target sum through successive monetary contributions, when they know they will lose all their remaining money with a certain probability if they fail to reach the target sum? We find that, under high risk of simulated dangerous climate change, half of the groups succeed in reaching the target sum, whereas the others only marginally fail. When the risk of loss is only as high as the necessary average investment or even lower, the groups generally fail to reach the target sum. We conclude that one possible strategy to relieve the collective-risk dilemma in high-risk situations is to convince people that failure to invest enough is very likely to cause grave financial loss to the individual. Our analysis describes the social window humankind has to prevent dangerous climate change.}, }
@article {pmid19859086, year = {2008}, author = {Montgomery, H}, title = {Climate change: the health consequences of inactivity.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {122}, number = {1304}, pages = {6-8}, pmid = {19859086}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Education/*trends ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid19351987, year = {2008}, author = {Rezza, G}, title = {Re-emergence of Chikungunya and other scourges: the role of globalization and climate change.}, journal = {Annali dell'Istituto superiore di sanita}, volume = {44}, number = {4}, pages = {315-318}, pmid = {19351987}, issn = {2384-8553}, mesh = {Alphavirus Infections/*epidemiology ; *Chikungunya virus ; *Climate ; *Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; Humans ; *Internationality ; }, abstract = {Globalization and climate change are important phenomena in a changing world. To date, only the effect of globalisation on infectious diseases, from vector-borne to respiratory infections, has been well established. The influence of cyclic natural climatic events and local variations in temperature and precipitation has also been recognised; however, there is still no conclusive evidence of an effect of global warming on infectious disease patterns.}, }
@article {pmid19066768, year = {2008}, author = {Aspöck, H and Gerersdorfer, T and Formayer, H and Walochnik, J}, title = {Sandflies and sandfly-borne infections of humans in Central Europe in the light of climate change.}, journal = {Wiener klinische Wochenschrift}, volume = {120}, number = {19-20 Suppl 4}, pages = {24-29}, pmid = {19066768}, issn = {0043-5325}, mesh = {Animals ; Austria ; Disease Vectors ; Dogs ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Leishmania donovani ; *Leishmania infantum ; Leishmaniasis, Visceral/*transmission ; Phlebotomus Fever/*transmission ; Psychodidae/*growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In Europe, sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) are typical Mediterranean faunal elements of low expansivity, which are widely distributed in more than 20 species in many parts of Southern Europe. A few species have extended their distribution to the northwest invading extramediterranean regions (Western, Eastern Europe); any occurrence in Central Europe north of the Alps was excluded until recently. Since 1999 sandflies have been found in several parts in Germany and in Belgium; originally these records were ascribed to climate change and global warming. Meanwhile, the more likely assumption is that sandflies have always, probably since the Holocene climate optima (ca. 4500 and 2500 B.C.), been in Central Europe sporadically to where they have come as immigrants (or re-immigrants) from Mediterranean refugial areas. It is, however, without question that global warming will lead to an extension of the distributional areas of sandflies. A climatological analysis of the localities where sandflies have been found in Central Europe has revealed that temperature is the key factor. A comparison of climatological parameters in sandfly-localities with the climatic conditions in Austria (where sandflies have not yet been found) has shown that an increase of temperature by 1 degrees C in January (Ph. mascittii) or 1 degrees C in July (Ph. neglectus), respectively, would lead to suitable conditions for the occurrence of sandflies in certain parts of Austria. (The scenarios for an increase of temperature until the end of the century vary between 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C; 3 degrees C seem to be realistic also for critical climatologists.) Leishmaniae certainly do not occur in Central Europe primarily, but an increasing number of infections in humans, as well as in animals, acquired in Central Europe has been registered. It is highly likely that these infections are due to sandflies which have been infected by sucking blood on infected dogs. Dogs infected with Leishmania and presenting a variety of clinical symptoms are frequently brought by compassionate tourists from Mediterranean countries - often illegally - to Central Europe. Meanwhile, a flourishing market for dogs of miserable appearance suffering from leishmaniosis has been developed by profit-oriented opportunists in Mediterranean countries. With respect to the serious course of visceral leishmaniosis (particularly in infants and in immunocompromised persons) this dangerous condition merits intensive attention. Phleboviruses have not been found in Central Europe, so far. However, in the course of global warming an establishment of biological cycles after an introduction of the pathogens, particularly if vertebrates other than humans can also act as reservoir hosts, seems possible.}, }
@article {pmid18900635, year = {1947}, author = {NEERGAARD, KV}, title = {[Dangers of climate change].}, journal = {Schweizerische medizinische Wochenschrift}, volume = {77}, number = {44}, pages = {1160}, pmid = {18900635}, issn = {0036-7672}, mesh = {Alkaloids/*metabolism ; *Climate ; *Zea mays ; }, }
@article {pmid18284764, year = {2007}, author = {Batalden, RV and Oberhauser, K and Peterson, AT}, title = {Ecological niches in sequential generations of eastern North American monarch butterflies (Lepidoptera: Danaidae): the ecology of migration and likely climate change implications.}, journal = {Environmental entomology}, volume = {36}, number = {6}, pages = {1365-1373}, doi = {10.1603/0046-225x(2007)36[1365:enisgo]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {18284764}, issn = {0046-225X}, mesh = {Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Climate ; Ecology/methods ; Forecasting ; Geography ; North America ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Eastern North American monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus L.) show a series of range shifts during their breeding season. Using ecological niche modeling, we studied the environmental context of these shifts by identifying the ecological conditions that monarchs use in successive summer months. Monarchs use a consistent ecological regimen through the summer, but these conditions contrast strikingly with those used during the winter. Hence, monarchs exhibit niche-following among sequential breeding generations but niche-switching between the breeding and overwintering stages of their annual cycle. We projected their breeding ecological niche onto monthly future climate scenarios, which indicated northward shifts, particularly at the northern extreme of their summer movements, over the next 50 yrs; if both monarchs and their milkweed host plants cannot track these changing climates, monarchs could lose distributional area during critical breeding months.}, }
@article {pmid18284126, year = {2008}, author = {Engelhaupt, E}, title = {Do biofuels slow global warming--or speed it up?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {42}, number = {2}, pages = {338}, pmid = {18284126}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; *Energy-Generating Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Ethanol ; Fertilizers ; Gasoline ; Greenhouse Effect ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; Saccharum ; Glycine max ; Zea mays ; }, }
@article {pmid18284080, year = {2007}, author = {Chaput, ES}, title = {World prosperity, global warming and nuclear power: a possible South Carolina role.}, journal = {Journal of the South Carolina Medical Association (1975)}, volume = {103}, number = {9}, pages = {254-258}, pmid = {18284080}, issn = {0038-3139}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Internationality ; *Nuclear Energy ; South Carolina ; }, abstract = {Global population and demand for energy have increased in the past fifteen years, and these trends will continue. One consequence of increased energy production has been the buildup of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere and heightened concern over global warming. Nations are actively seeking energy sources which minimize the release of greenhouse gasses. Nuclear power is one energy source which can safely meet this requirement. The United States is proposing the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP), an advanced nuclear strategy with reduced waste and greater protection against using materials in a weapons activity. GNEP activities are consistent with capabilities existing at the Savannah River Site, and two locations in South Carolina are being considered as the location to test these new fuel and reactor concepts.}, }
@article {pmid18282177, year = {2008}, author = {Egger, G}, title = {Dousing our inflammatory environment(s): is personal carbon trading an option for reducing obesity--and climate change?.}, journal = {Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {456-463}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-789X.2008.00469.x}, pmid = {18282177}, issn = {1467-789X}, mesh = {Conservation of Energy Resources/methods ; Energy Metabolism/physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Inflammation/*complications/epidemiology/pathology/*prevention &amp; control ; *Life Style ; Obesity/epidemiology/*etiology/pathology/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Obesity and climate change are two problems currently challenging humanity. Although apparently unrelated, an epidemiological approach to both shows a similar environmental aetiology, based in modern human lifestyles and their driving economic forces. One way of analysing this is through inflammation (defined as '. . . a disturbance of function following insult or injury') of both the internal (biological) and external (ecological) environments. Chronic, low-grade, systemic inflammation has recently been shown to accompany obesity, as well as a range of biological pathologies associated with obesity (diabetes, heart disease, some cancers, etc.). This is influenced by the body's inability to soak up excess glucose as a result of insulin resistance. In a broader sense, inflammation is a metaphor for ecological 'pathologies', manifest particularly in unnatural disturbances like climate change, ocean acidity, rising temperatures and species extinction, associated with the inability of the world's environmental 'sinks' to soak up carbon dioxide ('carbon resistance'?). The use of such a metaphorical analysis opens the possibilities for dealing with two interdisciplinary problems simultaneously. Strategies for managing climate change, including personal carbon trading, could provide a 'stealth intervention' for reducing population levels of obesity by increasing personal energy expenditure and decreasing energy-dense food intake, as well as reducing the carbon emissions causing climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18281629, year = {2008}, author = {Gale, P and Adkin, A and Drew, T and Wooldridge, M}, title = {Predicting the impact of climate change on livestock disease in Great Britain.}, journal = {The Veterinary record}, volume = {162}, number = {7}, pages = {214-215}, doi = {10.1136/vr.162.7.214}, pmid = {18281629}, issn = {0042-4900}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animal Diseases/*epidemiology ; Animals ; Animals, Domestic ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate ; Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/*veterinary ; Disasters ; Disease Outbreaks/veterinary ; Disease Reservoirs/veterinary ; Humans ; *Population Surveillance ; *Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; Zoonoses ; }, }
@article {pmid18276868, year = {2008}, author = {Sherwood, SC}, title = {Climate change: a titanic challenge.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {319}, number = {5865}, pages = {900}, doi = {10.1126/science.319.5865.900b}, pmid = {18276868}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Policy Making ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid18276860, year = {2008}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. Another side to the climate-cloud conundrum finally revealed.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {319}, number = {5865}, pages = {889}, doi = {10.1126/science.319.5865.889a}, pmid = {18276860}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18274589, year = {2008}, author = {Saunes, G}, title = {[Humans behind global warming?].}, journal = {Tidsskrift for den Norske laegeforening : tidsskrift for praktisk medicin, ny raekke}, volume = {128}, number = {4}, pages = {474}, pmid = {18274589}, issn = {0807-7096}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Photosynthesis ; }, }
@article {pmid18274006, year = {2008}, author = {, }, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2007.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {15-27}, doi = {10.1039/b717166h}, pmid = {18274006}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Disease ; Earth, Planet ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health ; *International Cooperation ; Ozone/*analysis/chemistry ; Program Evaluation ; Time Factors ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {This year the Montreal Protocol celebrates its 20th Anniversary. In September 1987, 24 countries signed the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Today 191 countries have signed and have met strict commitments on phasing out of ozone depleting substances with the result that a 95% reduction of these substances has been achieved. The Montreal Protocol has also contributed to slowing the rate of global climate change, since most of the ozone depleting substances are also effective greenhouse gases. Even though much has been achieved, the future of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on full compliance of the Montreal Protocol by all countries for the remaining substances, including methyl bromide, as well as strict monitoring of potential risks from the production of substitute chemicals. Also the ozone depleting substances existing in banks and equipment need special attention to prevent their release to the stratosphere. Since many of the ozone depleting substances already in the atmosphere are long-lived, recovery cannot be immediate and present projections estimate a return to pre-1980 levels by 2050 to 2075. It has also been predicted that the interactions of the effects of the ozone layer and that of other climate change factors will become increasingly important.}, }
@article {pmid18272994, year = {2008}, author = {Wilson, N}, title = {Freeing more carbon will accelerate global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {451}, number = {7180}, pages = {768}, doi = {10.1038/451768e}, pmid = {18272994}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Biodegradation, Environmental ; Carbon/*analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/metabolism ; Petroleum/metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid18269905, year = {2008}, author = {Pimm, SL}, title = {Biodiversity: climate change or habitat loss - which will kill more species?.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {18}, number = {3}, pages = {R117-9}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2007.11.055}, pmid = {18269905}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Ecology ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Habitat loss and climate change both kill off species. New studies show that the latter is a potent threat. Worse, its victims will likely be mostly those not presently threatened by habitat loss.}, }
@article {pmid18268873, year = {2007}, author = {Diaz, JH}, title = {The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.}, journal = {American journal of disaster medicine}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {33-42}, pmid = {18268873}, issn = {1932-149X}, mesh = {*Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; *Disease Outbreaks/prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Public Health Practice ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.}, }
@article {pmid18267918, year = {2008}, author = {Li, W and Fu, R and Juárez, RI and Fernandes, K}, title = {Observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the Amazon region.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1498}, pages = {1767-1772}, pmid = {18267918}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Time Factors ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Observations show that the standard precipitation index (SPI) over the southern Amazon region decreased in the period of 1970-1999 by 0.32 per decade, indicating an increase in dry conditions. Simulations of constant pre-industrial climate with recent climate models indicate a low probability (p=0%) that the trends are due to internal climate variability. When the 23 models are forced with either anthropogenic factors or both anthropogenic and external natural factors, approximately 13% of sampled 30-year SPI trends from the models are found to be within the range of the observed SPI trend at 95% confidence level. This suggests a possibility of anthropogenic and external forcing of climate change in the southern Amazon. On average, the models project no changes in the frequency of occurrence of low SPI values in the future; however, those models which produce more realistic SPI climatology, variability and trend over the period 1970-1999 show more of a tendency towards more negative values of SPI in the future. The analysis presented here suggests a potential anthropogenic influence on Amazon drying, which warrants future, more in-depth, study.}, }
@article {pmid18267917, year = {2008}, author = {Killeen, TJ and Solórzano, LA}, title = {Conservation strategies to mitigate impacts from climate change in Amazonia.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1498}, pages = {1881-1888}, pmid = {18267917}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Altitude ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Rain ; Rivers ; Transportation ; }, abstract = {Protected area systems and conservation corridors can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on Amazonian biodiversity. We propose conservation design criteria that will help species survive in situ or adjust range distributions in response to increased drought. The first priority is to protect the western Amazon, identified as the 'Core Amazon', due to stable rainfall regimes and macro-ecological phenomena that have led to the evolution of high levels of biodiversity. Ecotones can buffer the impact from climate change because populations are genetically adapted to climate extremes, particularly seasonality, because high levels of habitat diversity are associated with edaphic variability. Future climatic tension zones should be surveyed for geomorphological features that capture rain or conserve soil moisture to identify potential refugia for humid forest species. Conservation corridors should span environmental gradients to ensure that species can shift range distributions. Riparian corridors provide protection to both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Multiple potential altitudinal corridors exist in the Andes, but natural and anthropogenic bottlenecks will constrain the ability of species to shift their ranges and adapt to climate change. Planned infrastructure investments are a serious threat to the potential to consolidate corridors over the short and medium term.}, }
@article {pmid18267915, year = {2008}, author = {Perz, S and Brilhante, S and Brown, F and Caldas, M and Ikeda, S and Mendoza, E and Overdevest, C and Reis, V and Reyes, JF and Rojas, D and Schmink, M and Souza, C and Walker, R}, title = {Road building, land use and climate change: prospects for environmental governance in the Amazon.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1498}, pages = {1889-1895}, pmid = {18267915}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Environment ; Government ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Transportation ; }, abstract = {Some coupled land-climate models predict a dieback of Amazon forest during the twenty-first century due to climate change, but human land use in the region has already reduced the forest cover. The causation behind land use is complex, and includes economic, institutional, political and demographic factors. Pre-eminent among these factors is road building, which facilitates human access to natural resources that beget forest fragmentation. While official government road projects have received considerable attention, unofficial road building by interest groups is expanding more rapidly, especially where official roads are being paved, yielding highly fragmented forest mosaics. Effective governance of natural resources in the Amazon requires a combination of state oversight and community participation in a 'hybrid' model of governance. The MAP Initiative in the southwestern Amazon provides an example of an innovative hybrid approach to environmental governance. It embodies a polycentric structure that includes government agencies, NGOs, universities and communities in a planning process that links scientific data to public deliberations in order to mitigate the effects of new infrastructure and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18267914, year = {2008}, author = {Bush, MB and Silman, MR and McMichael, C and Saatchi, S}, title = {Fire, climate change and biodiversity in Amazonia: a Late-Holocene perspective.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1498}, pages = {1795-1702}, pmid = {18267914}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Brazil ; Carbon/chemistry ; *Ecosystem ; *Fires ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Paleontology ; Serine Endopeptidases ; Soil/analysis ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Fire is an important and arguably unnatural component of many wet Amazonian and Andean forest systems. Soil charcoal has been used to infer widespread human use of landscapes prior to European Conquest. An analysis of Amazonian soil carbon records reveals that the records have distinct spatial and temporal patterns, suggesting that either fires were only set in moderately seasonal areas of Amazonia or that strongly seasonal and aseasonal areas are undersampled. Synthesizing data from 300 charcoal records, an age-frequency diagram reveals peaks of fire apparently coinciding with some periods of very strong El Niño activity. However, the El Niño record does not always provide an accurate prediction of fire timing, and a better match is found in the record of insolation minima. After the time of European contact, fires became much scarcer within Amazonia. In both the Amazonia and the Andes, modern fire pattern is strongly allied to human activity. On the flank of the Andes, forests that have never burned are being eroded by fire spreading downslope from grasslands. Species of these same forests are being forced to migrate upslope due to warming and will encounter a firm artificial fire boundary of human activity.}, }
@article {pmid18267908, year = {2008}, author = {Brondizio, ES and Moran, EF}, title = {Human dimensions of climate change: the vulnerability of small farmers in the Amazon.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1498}, pages = {1803-1809}, pmid = {18267908}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Agriculture/*economics ; Brazil ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; Data Collection ; Disasters ; Family Characteristics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Rural Population ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {This paper argues for a twofold perspective on human adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. First, we need to understand the processes that mediate perceptions of environmental change and the behavioural responses at the levels of the individual and the local population. Second, we should take into account the process of production and dissemination of global and national climate information and models to regional and local populations, especially small farmers. We discuss the sociocultural and environmental diversity of small farmers in the Amazon and their susceptibility to climate change associated with drought, flooding and accidental fire. Using survey, ethnographic and archival data from study areas in the state of Pará, we discuss farmers' sources of knowledge and long-term memory of climatic events, drought and accidental fire; their sources of climate information; their responses to drought and fire events and the impact of changing rainfall patterns on land use. We highlight the challenges of adaptation to climate change created by the influence of migration and family turnover on collective action and memory, the mismatch of scales used to monitor and disseminate climate data and the lack of extension services to translate large-scale forecasts to local needs. We found that for most farmers, memories of extended drought tend to decrease significantly after 3 years. Over 50% of the farmers interviewed in 2002 did not remember as significant the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought of 1997/1998. This helps explain why approximately 40% of the farmers have not changed their land-use behaviours in the face of the strongest ENSO event of the twentieth century.}, }
@article {pmid18267903, year = {2008}, author = {Sawyer, D}, title = {Climate change, biofuels and eco-social impacts in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1498}, pages = {1747-1752}, pmid = {18267903}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {*Bioelectric Energy Sources ; Brazil ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/economics ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {While global technical progress is relatively linear, there is wide variation in its environmental and social impacts at the local level, with cycles of expansion and retraction or boom and bust, of long or short duration. Analysis of previous open-ended stages of extraction and agro commodities in the Amazon indicates a general gravitational trend for technical progress to increase productivity and permit transformation of increasingly generic forms of material or energy, rather than relying on the specific physical or chemical properties provided by nature. While increased demand favours frontier expansion in the periphery when there is no other alternative, technical progress ultimately favours spatial reconcentration of production in central countries. The agroenergy stage now beginning involves rapid frontier expansion and offers various environmental and economic opportunities, but also generates a series of negative ecosystemic and socio-economic impacts, which are both direct and indirect, for tropical regions. The Amazon and the Cerrado are particularly vulnerable. Interacting with climate change and land use, the upcoming stage of cellulosic energy could result in a collapse of the new frontier into vast degraded pasture. The present and future impacts can be mitigated through crafting of appropriate policies, not limited to the Amazon, stressing intensified and more sustainable use of areas already cleared, minimizing new clearing and consolidation of alternatives for sustainable use of natural resources by local communities. Coping with these scenarios requires knowledge of complex causal relationships.}, }
@article {pmid18267896, year = {2008}, author = {Harris, PP and Huntingford, C and Cox, PM}, title = {Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1498}, pages = {1753-1759}, pmid = {18267896}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; *Trees ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The Hadley Centre coupled climate-carbon cycle model (HadCM3LC) predicts loss of the Amazon rainforest in response to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the atmospheric component of HadCM3LC is used to assess the role of simulated changes in mid-twenty-first century sea surface temperature (SST) in Amazon Basin climate change. When the full HadCM3LC SST anomalies (SSTAs) are used, the atmosphere model reproduces the Amazon Basin climate change exhibited by HadCM3LC, including much of the reduction in Amazon Basin rainfall. This rainfall change is shown to be the combined effect of SSTAs in both the tropical Atlantic and the Pacific, with roughly equal contributions from each basin. The greatest rainfall reduction occurs from May to October, outside of the mature South American monsoon (SAM) season. This dry season response is the combined effect of a more rapid warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to the south, and warm SSTAs in the tropical east Pacific. Conversely, a weak enhancement of mature SAM season rainfall in response to Atlantic SST change is suppressed by the atmospheric response to Pacific SST. This net wet season response is sufficient to prevent dry season soil moisture deficits from being recharged through the SAM season, leading to a perennial soil moisture reduction and an associated 30% reduction in annual Amazon Basin net primary productivity (NPP). A further 23% NPP reduction occurs in response to a 3.5 degrees C warmer air temperature associated with a global mean SST warming.}, }
@article {pmid18266693, year = {2008}, author = {Yamanaka, T and Tatsuki, S and Shimada, M}, title = {Adaptation to the new land or effect of global warming? An age-structured model for rapid voltinism change in an alien lepidopteran pest.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {77}, number = {3}, pages = {585-596}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01367.x}, pmid = {18266693}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Computer Simulation ; Female ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Hot Temperature ; *Models, Biological ; Moths/*physiology ; Photoperiod ; Plant Leaves/metabolism ; Reproduction/physiology ; }, abstract = {1. Hyphantria cunea Drury invaded Japan at Tokyo in 1945 and expanded its distribution gradually into northern and south-western Japan. All populations in Japan were bivoltine until the early 1970s, at which time trivoltine populations appeared in several southern regions. Presently, H. cunea exists as separate bivoltine and trivoltine populations divided around latitude 36 degrees . In the course of this voltinism change, the mean surface temperature in Japan rose by 1.0 degrees C. 2. To determine whether and how this temperature increase might be responsible for the voltinism change, we constructed an age-structured model incorporating growth speed driven by actual daily temperature and detailed mechanisms of diapause induction triggered by both daily photoperiod and temperature. 3. The simulation result suggests that both the acceleration of the growth speed and the prolongation of diapause induction are necessary to cause changes in voltinism, regardless of temperature increase. We concluded that the H. cunea population changed its life-history traits as an adaptation parallel with its invasion into the south-western parts of Japan. 4. Though the temperature increase had little effect on the fitness and heat stress in bivoltine and trivoltine populations, the trivoltine life cycle has become advantageous at least in marginal regions such as Tokyo.}, }
@article {pmid18266169, year = {2008}, author = {Baer, HA}, title = {Toward a critical anthropology on the impact of global warming on health and human societies.}, journal = {Medical anthropology}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {2-8}, doi = {10.1080/01459740701831369}, pmid = {18266169}, issn = {0145-9740}, mesh = {*Anthropology ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Politics ; *Societies, Medical ; }, abstract = {This op-ed essay urges medical anthropologists to join a growing number of public health scholars to examine the impact of global warming on health. Adopting a critical medical anthropology perspective, I argue that global warming is yet another manifestation of the contradictions of the capitalist world system. Ultimately, an serious effort to mitigate the impact of global warming not only on health but also settlement patterns and subsistence will require the creation of a new global political economy based upon social parity, democratic processes, and environmental sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid18264208, year = {2007}, author = {Nye, ER}, title = {Global warming and possums: contributors in the future to new mosquito-borne human diseases in New Zealand?.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {120}, number = {1266}, pages = {U2839}, pmid = {18264208}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {Aedes ; Alphavirus Infections/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; Animals ; Arbovirus Infections/prevention &amp; control/transmission ; *Culicidae ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Bites and Stings/*parasitology ; *Insect Vectors ; Ross River virus ; Trichosurus/*parasitology ; }, }
@article {pmid18262038, year = {2008}, author = {Linthorst, GE and de Metz, J}, title = {Global warming could affect outpatient attendance.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {371}, number = {9611}, pages = {474}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60234-2}, pmid = {18262038}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Adult ; *Appointments and Schedules ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Male ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid18258944, year = {2008}, author = {Silverstein, G}, title = {Doctors and climate change: Impact of increasing world population.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {336}, number = {7639}, pages = {292}, pmid = {18258944}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; }, }
@article {pmid18258937, year = {2008}, author = {Chambers, JC}, title = {Doctors and climate change: Impact of medical ethics.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {336}, number = {7639}, pages = {291-292}, pmid = {18258937}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Ethics, Medical ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid18258882, year = {2008}, author = {Zeng, N and Ding, Y and Pan, J and Wang, H and Gregg, J}, title = {Sustainable development. Climate change--the Chinese challenge.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {319}, number = {5864}, pages = {730-731}, doi = {10.1126/science.1153368}, pmid = {18258882}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; *Carbon Dioxide ; China ; *Climate ; Coal ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Public Policy ; Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid18256410, year = {2008}, author = {Zhou, XN and Yang, GJ and Yang, K and Wang, XH and Hong, QB and Sun, LP and Malone, JB and Kristensen, TK and Bergquist, NR and Utzinger, J}, title = {Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China.}, journal = {The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene}, volume = {78}, number = {2}, pages = {188-194}, pmid = {18256410}, issn = {0002-9637}, mesh = {Animals ; China/epidemiology ; Forecasting/methods ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; Population Dynamics ; Risk Assessment ; Schistosoma japonicum/*pathogenicity ; Schistosomiasis japonica/*epidemiology/transmission ; Snails/*parasitology ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4 degrees C for development of Schistosoma japonicum within the intermediate host snail (i.e., Oncomelania hupensis), and a temperature of 5.8 degrees C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of O. hupensis is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0 degrees C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9 degrees C in 2030 and 1.6 degrees C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km(2) by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.}, }
@article {pmid18254859, year = {2008}, author = {Sekercioglu, CH and Schneider, SH and Fay, JP and Loarie, SR}, title = {Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {140-150}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00852.x}, pmid = {18254859}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8 degrees C, projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1 degrees C warming) to 30.0% (6.4 degrees C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100-500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.}, }
@article {pmid18251113, year = {2008}, author = {O'Donnell, MP}, title = {The connection between global warming and health promotion.}, journal = {American journal of health promotion : AJHP}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {iv}, doi = {10.4278/ajhp.22.3.iv}, pmid = {18251113}, issn = {0890-1171}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Promotion ; Humans ; Transportation ; }, }
@article {pmid18239122, year = {2008}, author = {Lobell, DB and Burke, MB and Tebaldi, C and Mastrandrea, MD and Falcon, WP and Naylor, RL}, title = {Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {319}, number = {5863}, pages = {607-610}, doi = {10.1126/science.1152339}, pmid = {18239122}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Africa, Southern ; Agriculture/*methods/trends ; Asia ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate ; *Crops, Agricultural ; *Food Supply ; Models, Statistical ; Monte Carlo Method ; Probability ; Risk ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.}, }
@article {pmid18239116, year = {2008}, author = {Brown, ME and Funk, CC}, title = {Climate. Food security under climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {319}, number = {5863}, pages = {580-581}, doi = {10.1126/science.1154102}, pmid = {18239116}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Agriculture/economics/methods/trends ; *Climate ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; *Crops, Agricultural/economics ; Developing Countries ; *Food Supply/economics ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Malnutrition/etiology ; Models, Statistical ; Poverty ; Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid18239110, year = {2008}, author = {Milly, PC and Betancourt, J and Falkenmark, M and Hirsch, RM and Kundzewicz, ZW and Lettenmaier, DP and Stouffer, RJ}, title = {Climate change. Stationarity is dead: whither water management?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {319}, number = {5863}, pages = {573-574}, doi = {10.1126/science.1151915}, pmid = {18239110}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18239109, year = {2008}, author = {Zickfeld, K and Fyfe, JC and Eby, M and Weaver, AJ}, title = {Comment on "Saturation of the southern ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change".}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {319}, number = {5863}, pages = {570; author reply 570}, doi = {10.1126/science.1146886}, pmid = {18239109}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {We disagree with the conclusion of Le Quéré et al. (Reports, 22 June 2007, p. 1735) that poleward intensifying winds could continue to weaken the Southern Ocean sink in the future. We argue that altered winds, along with rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, will likely increase the efficiency of this sink in the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid18239108, year = {2008}, author = {Law, RM and Matear, RJ and Francey, RJ}, title = {Comment on "Saturation of the southern ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change".}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {319}, number = {5863}, pages = {570; author reply 570}, doi = {10.1126/science.1149077}, pmid = {18239108}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Unlike Le Quéré et al. (Reports, 22 June 2007, p. 1735), we do not find a saturating Southern Ocean carbon sink due to recent climate change. In our ocean model, observed wind forcing causes reduced carbon uptake, but heat and freshwater flux forcing cause increased uptake. Our inversions of atmospheric carbon dioxide show that the Southern Ocean sink trend is dependent on network choice.}, }
@article {pmid18239105, year = {2008}, author = {Bohannon, J}, title = {Climate change. The big thaw reaches Mongolia's pristine north.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {319}, number = {5863}, pages = {567-568}, doi = {10.1126/science.319.5863.567}, pmid = {18239105}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Mongolia ; }, }
@article {pmid18235058, year = {2008}, author = {Frumkin, H and Hess, J and Luber, G and Malilay, J and McGeehin, M}, title = {Climate change: the public health response.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {98}, number = {3}, pages = {435-445}, pmid = {18235058}, issn = {1541-0048}, mesh = {*Climate ; Government Regulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Policy ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Quality of Health Care ; Safety ; }, abstract = {There is scientific consensus that the global climate is changing, with rising surface temperatures, melting ice and snow, rising sea levels, and increasing climate variability. These changes are expected to have substantial impacts on human health. There are known, effective public health responses for many of these impacts, but the scope, timeline, and complexity of climate change are unprecedented. We propose a public health approach to climate change, based on the essential public health services, that extends to both clinical and population health services and emphasizes the coordination of government agencies (federal, state, and local), academia, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations.}, }
@article {pmid18231945, year = {2008}, author = {Füssel, HM}, title = {Assessing adaptation to the health risks of climate change: what guidance can existing frameworks provide?.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {37-63}, doi = {10.1080/09603120701358416}, pmid = {18231945}, issn = {0960-3123}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Environmental Health ; Guidelines as Topic ; Humans ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Risk Management/methods ; }, abstract = {Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.}, }
@article {pmid18231683, year = {2008}, author = {Papadimitriou, VC and Talukdar, RK and Portmann, RW and Ravishankara, AR and Burkholder, JB}, title = {CF3CF=CH2 and (Z)-CF3CF=CHF: temperature dependent OH rate coefficients and global warming potentials.}, journal = {Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, pages = {808-820}, doi = {10.1039/b714382f}, pmid = {18231683}, issn = {1463-9076}, mesh = {Fluorocarbons/*chemistry/radiation effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hydroxyl Radical/*chemistry ; Lasers ; Photolysis ; Spectroscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared/instrumentation/methods ; Stereoisomerism ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Rate coefficients over the temperature range 206-380 K are reported for the gas-phase reaction of OH radicals with 2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene (CF(3)CF=CH(2)), k(1)(T), and 1,2,3,3,3-pentafluoropropene ((Z)-CF(3)CF=CHF), k(2)(T), which are major components in proposed substitutes for HFC-134a (CF(3)CFH(2)) in mobile air-conditioning units. Rate coefficients were measured under pseudo-first-order conditions in OH using pulsed-laser photolysis to produce OH and laser-induced fluorescence to detect it. Rate coefficients were found to be independent of pressure between 25 and 600 Torr (He, N(2)). For CF(3)CF=CH(2), the rate coefficients, within the measurement uncertainty, are given by the Arrhenius expression k(1)(T)=(1.26+/-0.11) x 10(-12) exp[(-35+/-10)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) where k(1)(296 K)=(1.12+/-0.09) x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). For (Z)-CF(3)CF=CHF, the rate coefficients are given by the non-Arrhenius expression k(2)(T)=(1.6+/-0.2) x 10(-18)T(2) exp[(655+/-50)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) where k(2)(296 K)=(1.29+/-0.06) x 10(-12) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). Over the temperature range most relevant to the atmosphere, 200-300 K, the Arrhenius expression k(2)(T)=(7.30+/-0.7) x 10(-13) exp[(165+/-20)/T] cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) reproduces the measured rate coefficients very well and can be used in atmospheric model calculations. The quoted uncertainties in the rate coefficients are 2sigma (95% confidence interval) and include estimated systematic errors. The global warming potentials for CF(3)CF=CH(2) and (Z)-CF(3)CF=CHF were calculated to be <4.4 and <3.6, respectively, for the 100 year time horizon using infrared absorption cross sections measured in this work, and atmospheric lifetimes of 12 and 10 days that are based solely on OH reactive loss.}, }
@article {pmid18227517, year = {2008}, author = {Yasuhara, M and Cronin, TM and Demenocal, PB and Okahashi, H and Linsley, BK}, title = {Abrupt climate change and collapse of deep-sea ecosystems.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {105}, number = {5}, pages = {1556-1560}, pmid = {18227517}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Crustacea ; *Ecosystem ; *Seawater ; }, abstract = {We investigated the deep-sea fossil record of benthic ostracodes during periods of rapid climate and oceanographic change over the past 20,000 years in a core from intermediate depth in the northwestern Atlantic. Results show that deep-sea benthic community "collapses" occur with faunal turnover of up to 50% during major climatically driven oceanographic changes. Species diversity as measured by the Shannon-Wiener index falls from 3 to as low as 1.6 during these events. Major disruptions in the benthic communities commenced with Heinrich Event 1, the Inter-Allerød Cold Period (IACP: 13.1 ka), the Younger Dryas (YD: 12.9-11.5 ka), and several Holocene Bond events when changes in deep-water circulation occurred. The largest collapse is associated with the YD/IACP and is characterized by an abrupt two-step decrease in both the upper North Atlantic Deep Water assemblage and species diversity at 13.1 ka and at 12.2 ka. The ostracode fauna at this site did not fully recover until approximately 8 ka, with the establishment of Labrador Sea Water ventilation. Ecologically opportunistic slope species prospered during this community collapse. Other abrupt community collapses during the past 20 ka generally correspond to millennial climate events. These results indicate that deep-sea ecosystems are not immune to the effects of rapid climate changes occurring over centuries or less.}, }
@article {pmid18225729, year = {2007}, author = {Amat-Roze, JM}, title = {[Climate change and tropical diseases: mobility systems].}, journal = {Medecine tropicale : revue du Corps de sante colonial}, volume = {67}, number = {5}, pages = {465-466}, pmid = {18225729}, issn = {0025-682X}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/*transmission ; Dengue/epidemiology/transmission ; Developing Countries ; Disease Vectors ; Endemic Diseases ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology/transmission ; Tropical Medicine ; Zoonoses/transmission ; }, }
@article {pmid18225728, year = {2007}, author = {Petit, M}, title = {[Global climate change].}, journal = {Medecine tropicale : revue du Corps de sante colonial}, volume = {67}, number = {5}, pages = {458-464}, pmid = {18225728}, issn = {0025-682X}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Vehicle Emissions ; }, }
@article {pmid18224340, year = {2008}, author = {Møller, AP}, title = {Climate change and micro-geographic variation in laying date.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {155}, number = {4}, pages = {845-857}, pmid = {18224340}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; Body Weight ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; Oviposition/*physiology ; Regression Analysis ; Swallows/*physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change has been shown to affect the timing of reproduction, with earlier reproduction being associated with an increase in temperature. Changes in the timing of reproduction arise from changes in food availability as well as other factors, and differences in the timing of reproduction among sites may cause sites with early reproduction to contribute disproportionately to local recruitment. In this study, spatial variation in the laying date of barn swallows Hirundo rustica at 39 sites in a 45-km2 study area during the period 1971-2004 was used to investigate micro-geographic patterns in the timing of breeding. I found that individuals breeding at sites with early reproduction had a disproportionately large reproductive success. Early sites were characterized by early plant phenology, as determined by the date of leafing of the broad-leaved elm Ulmus glabra and date of flowering of the snowdrop Galanthus nivalis during a single year. Such early sites showed greater advancement in laying date between 1971 and 2004 than the average site. Early sites were also generally occupied during more years by a larger number of breeders than were late sites. Breeders at early sites produced more fledglings, and breeders at such sites were characterized by a smaller adult body size and larger secondary sexual characters than individuals at the average site. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that temporal changes in the timing of reproduction occur as a consequence of differential recruitment at phenologically early sites that produce disproportionately large numbers of offspring.}, }
@article {pmid18218999, year = {2008}, author = {Roberts, I}, title = {The economics of tackling climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {336}, number = {7637}, pages = {165-166}, pmid = {18218999}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Economics ; Environmental Pollution/economics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {Don’t leave health benefits out of the equation}, }
@article {pmid18217868, year = {2008}, author = {Süss, J and Klaus, C and Gerstengarbe, FW and Werner, PC}, title = {What makes ticks tick? Climate change, ticks, and tick-borne diseases.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {39-45}, doi = {10.1111/j.1708-8305.2007.00176.x}, pmid = {18217868}, issn = {1195-1982}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Lyme Disease/epidemiology ; Rain ; Temperature ; Tick-Borne Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid18213958, year = {2007}, author = {Millar, CI and Stephenson, NL and Stephens, SL}, title = {Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {17}, number = {8}, pages = {2145-2151}, doi = {10.1890/06-1715.1}, pmid = {18213958}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Forestry/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Trees/*physiology ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future.}, }
@article {pmid18211875, year = {2008}, author = {Visser, ME}, title = {Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {275}, number = {1635}, pages = {649-659}, pmid = {18211875}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*physiology ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; Birds/physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Pedigree ; Phenotype ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase without loss of biodiversity. The rate of adaptation will primarily be set by the rate of microevolution since (i) phenotypic plasticity alone is not sufficient as reaction norms will no longer be adaptive and hence microevolution on the reaction norm is needed, (ii) learning will be favourable to the individual but cannot be passed on to the next generations, (iii) maternal effects may play a role but, as with other forms of phenotypic plasticity, the response of offspring to the maternal cues will no longer be adaptive in a changing environment, and (iv) adaptation via immigration of individuals with genotypes adapted to warmer environments also involves microevolution as these genotypes are better adapted in terms of temperature, but not in terms of, for instance, photoperiod.Long-term studies on wild populations with individually known animals play an essential role in detecting and understanding the temporal trends in life-history traits, and to estimate the heritability of, and selection pressures on, life-history traits. However, additional measurements on other trophic levels and on the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are needed to predict the rate of microevolution, especially under changing conditions. Using this knowledge on heritability of, and selection on, life-history traits, in combination with climate scenarios, we will be able to predict the rate of adaptation for different climate scenarios. The final step is to use ecoevolutionary dynamical models to make the link to population viability and from there to biodiversity loss for those scenarios where the rate of adaptation is insufficient.}, }
@article {pmid18200880, year = {2007}, author = {House, KZ and House, CH and Schrag, DP and Aziz, MJ}, title = {Electrochemical acceleration of chemical weathering as an energetically feasible approach to mitigating anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {41}, number = {24}, pages = {8464-8470}, doi = {10.1021/es0701816}, pmid = {18200880}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; *Climate ; Electrochemistry/*methods ; Feasibility Studies ; }, abstract = {We describe an approach to CO2 capture and storage from the atmosphere that involves enhancing the solubility of CO2 in the ocean by a process equivalent to the natural silicate weathering reaction. HCl is electrochemically removed from the ocean and neutralized through reaction with silicate rocks. The increase in ocean alkalinity resulting from the removal of HCI causes atmospheric CO2 to dissolve into the ocean where it will be stored primarily as HCO3- without further acidifying the ocean. On timescales of hundreds of years or longer, some of the additional alkalinity will likely lead to precipitation or enhanced preservation of CaCO3, resulting in the permanent storage of the associated carbon, and the return of an equal amount of carbon to the atmosphere. Whereas the natural silicate weathering process is effected primarily by carbonic acid, the engineered process accelerates the weathering kinetics to industrial rates by replacing this weak acid with HCI. In the thermodynamic limit--and with the appropriate silicate rocks--the overall reaction is spontaneous. A range of efficiency scenarios indicates that the process should require 100-400 kJ of work per mol of CO2 captured and stored for relevant timescales. The process can be powered from stranded energy sources too remote to be useful for the direct needs of population centers. It may also be useful on a regional scale for protection of coral reefs from further ocean acidification. Application of this technology may involve neutralizing the alkaline solution that is coproduced with HCI with CO2 from a point source or from the atmosphere prior to being returned to the ocean.}, }
@article {pmid18200863, year = {2007}, author = {Liao, KJ and Tagaris, E and Manomaiphiboon, K and Napelenok, SL and Woo, JH and He, S and Amar, P and Russell, AG}, title = {Sensitivities of ozone and fine particulate matter formation to emissions under the impact of potential future climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {41}, number = {24}, pages = {8355-8361}, doi = {10.1021/es070998z}, pmid = {18200863}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Climate ; Ozone/*chemistry ; Particle Size ; }, abstract = {Impact of climate change alone and in combination with currently planned emission control strategies are investigated to quantify effectiveness in decreasing regional ozone and PM2.5 over the continental U.S. using MM5, SMOKE, and CMAQ with DDM-3D. Sensitivities of ozone and PM2.5 formation to precursor emissions are found to change only slightly in response to climate change. In many cases, mass per ton sensitivities to NO(x) and SO2 controls are predicted to be greater in the future due to both the lower emissions as well as climate, suggesting that current control strategies based on reducing such emissions will continue to be effective in decreasing ground-level ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. SO2 emission controls are predicted to be most beneficial for decreasing summertime PM2.5 levels, whereas controls of NO(x) emissions are effective in winter. Spatial distributions of sensitivities are also found to be only slightly affected assuming no changes in land-use. Contributions of biogenic VOC emissions to PM2.5 formation are simulated to be more important in the future because of higher temperatures, higher biogenic emissions, and lower anthropogenic NO(x) and SO2 emissions.}, }
@article {pmid18198138, year = {2008}, author = {Votier, SC and Bearhop, S and Attrill, MJ and Oro, D}, title = {Is climate change the most likely driver of range expansion for a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters?.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {204-5; discussion 206-7}, pmid = {18198138}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid18189039, year = {2007}, author = {Luber, G and Hess, J}, title = {Climate change and human health in the United States.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health}, volume = {70}, number = {5}, pages = {43-4, 46}, pmid = {18189039}, issn = {0022-0892}, mesh = {Environmental Health/statistics &amp; numerical data/*trends ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Health/statistics &amp; numerical data/*trends ; Risk Assessment ; Time Factors ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid18186715, year = {2008}, author = {Bi, P and Parton, KA}, title = {Effect of climate change on Australian rural and remote regions: what do we know and what do we need to know?.}, journal = {The Australian journal of rural health}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {2-4}, doi = {10.1111/j.1440-1584.2007.00945.x}, pmid = {18186715}, issn = {1038-5282}, mesh = {Agriculture/trends ; Australia ; Community Health Planning ; Desert Climate/adverse effects ; Disasters/economics ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Medically Underserved Area ; Needs Assessment/*organization &amp; administration ; Research ; Rural Health/*trends ; Rural Health Services/*organization &amp; administration ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {This paper addresses a very important issue in Australian rural and remote regions: the effects of climate change on various aspects including natural resources, agricultural activity, population health, and social and economic development. The objective is to briefly characterise the consequences of climate change in rural Australia and what we can do to prevent further impact in our rural communities.}, }
@article {pmid18186714, year = {2008}, author = {Blashki, G}, title = {Climate change and the rural health workforce.}, journal = {The Australian journal of rural health}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1111/j.1440-1584.2007.00944.x}, pmid = {18186714}, issn = {1038-5282}, mesh = {Australia ; Desert Climate/adverse effects ; Disasters ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Services Needs and Demand/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Rural Health/*trends ; Rural Health Services/*organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid18186406, year = {2007}, author = {Montgomery, H}, title = {The medical impacts of climate change.}, journal = {British journal of hospital medicine (London, England : 2005)}, volume = {68}, number = {12}, pages = {663-665}, doi = {10.12968/hmed.2007.68.12.663}, pmid = {18186406}, issn = {1750-8460}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Carbon dioxide captured in fossil fuels over some 410 million years has been released in decades, and the earth is warming as a result. This threatens not just our health, but our very survival as a species.}, }
@article {pmid18185549, year = {2008}, author = {Tollefson, J}, title = {Could global gardening fix climate change?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {451}, number = {7175}, pages = {113}, doi = {10.1038/451113a}, pmid = {18185549}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods/*trends ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Bioelectric Energy Sources/trends ; *Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; }, }
@article {pmid18180703, year = {2008}, author = {Coombs, A}, title = {Climate change concerns prompt improved disease forecasting.}, journal = {Nature medicine}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {3}, doi = {10.1038/nm0108-3}, pmid = {18180703}, issn = {1546-170X}, mesh = {Climate ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Susceptibility ; *Ecosystem ; *Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Temperature ; United States ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid18174418, year = {2008}, author = {Goldstein, BD}, title = {Climate change goals: where to begin?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {319}, number = {5859}, pages = {33; author reply 33}, doi = {10.1126/science.319.5859.33a}, pmid = {18174418}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18173500, year = {2008}, author = {Garant, D and Hadfield, JD and Kruuk, LE and Sheldon, BC}, title = {Stability of genetic variance and covariance for reproductive characters in the face of climate change in a wild bird population.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {179-188}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03436.x}, pmid = {18173500}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; Birds/*genetics ; *Climate ; Female ; *Genetic Variation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; Reproduction/*genetics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Global warming has had numerous effects on populations of animals and plants, with many species in temperate regions experiencing environmental change at unprecedented rates. Populations with low potential for adaptive evolutionary change and plasticity will have little chance of persistence in the face of environmental change. Assessment of the potential for adaptive evolution requires the estimation of quantitative genetic parameters, but it is as yet unclear what impact, if any, global warming will have on the expression of genetic variances and covariances. Here we assess the impact of a changing climate on the genetic architecture underlying three reproductive traits in a wild bird population. We use a large, long-term, data set collected on great tits (Parus major) in Wytham Woods, Oxford, and an 'animal model' approach to quantify the heritability of, and genetic correlations among, laying date, clutch size and egg mass during two periods with contrasting temperature conditions over a 40-year period (1965-1988 [cooler] vs. 1989-2004 [warmer]). We found significant additive genetic variance and heritability for all traits under both temperature regimes. We also found significant negative genetic covariances and correlations between clutch size and egg weight during both periods, and among laying date and clutch size in the colder years only. The overall G matrix comparison among periods, however, showed only a minor difference among periods, thus suggesting that genotype by environment interactions are negligible in this context. Our results therefore suggest that despite substantial changes in temperature and in mean laying date phenotype over the last decades, and despite the large sample sizes available, we are unable to detect any significant change in the genetic architecture of the reproductive traits studied.}, }
@article {pmid18173499, year = {2008}, author = {Gienapp, P and Teplitsky, C and Alho, JS and Mills, JA and Merilä, J}, title = {Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {167-178}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03413.x}, pmid = {18173499}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/genetics/physiology ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; *Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Phenotype ; Reproduction/genetics ; *Selection, Genetic ; Vertebrates/*genetics ; }, abstract = {Rapid climate change is likely to impose strong selection pressures on traits important for fitness, and therefore, microevolution in response to climate-mediated selection is potentially an important mechanism mitigating negative consequences of climate change. We reviewed the empirical evidence for recent microevolutionary responses to climate change in longitudinal studies emphasizing the following three perspectives emerging from the published data. First, although signatures of climate change are clearly visible in many ecological processes, similar examples of microevolutionary responses in literature are in fact very rare. Second, the quality of evidence for microevolutionary responses to climate change is far from satisfactory as the documented responses are often - if not typically - based on nongenetic data. We reinforce the view that it is as important to make the distinction between genetic (evolutionary) and phenotypic (includes a nongenetic, plastic component) responses clear, as it is to understand the relative roles of plasticity and genetics in adaptation to climate change. Third, in order to illustrate the difficulties and their potential ubiquity in detection of microevolution in response to natural selection, we reviewed the quantitative genetic studies on microevolutionary responses to natural selection in the context of long-term studies of vertebrates. The available evidence points to the overall conclusion that many responses perceived as adaptations to changing environmental conditions could be environmentally induced plastic responses rather than microevolutionary adaptations. Hence, clear-cut evidence indicating a significant role for evolutionary adaptation to ongoing climate warming is conspicuously scarce.}, }
@article {pmid18173478, year = {2007}, author = {Gómez-Mendoza, L and Arriaga, L}, title = {Modeling the effect of climate change on the distribution of oak and pine species of Mexico.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {21}, number = {6}, pages = {1545-1555}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00814.x}, pmid = {18173478}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Demography ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Mexico ; *Models, Biological ; Pinus/*physiology ; Quercus/*physiology ; }, abstract = {We examined the vulnerability of 34 species of oaks (Quercus) and pines (Pinus) to the effects of global climate change in Mexico. We regionalized the HadCM2 model of climate change with local climatic data (mean annual temperature and rainfall) and downscaled the model with the inverse distance-weighted method. Databases of herbaria specimens, genetic algorithms (GARP), and digital covers of biophysical variables that affect oaks and pines were used to project geographic distributions of the species under a severe and conservative scenario of climate change for the year 2050. Starting with the current average temperature of 20.2 degrees C and average precipitation of 793 mm, under the severe warming scenario mean temperature and precipitation changed to 22.7 degrees C and 660 mm, respectively, in 2050. For the conservative warming scenario, these variables shifted to 21.8 degrees C and 721 mm. Responses to the different scenarios of climate change were predicted to be species-specific and related to each species climate affinity. The current geographic distribution of oaks and pines decreased 7-48% and 0.2-64%, respectively. The more vulnerable pines were Pinus rudis, P. chihuahuana, P. oocarpa, and P. culminicola, and the most vulnerable oaks were Quercus crispipilis, Q. peduncularis, Q. acutifolia, and Q. sideroxyla. In addition to habitat conservation, we think sensitive pine and oak species should be looked at more closely to define ex situ strategies (i.e., seed preservation in germplasm banks) for their long-term conservation. Modeling climatic-change scenarios is important to the development of conservation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid18173384, year = {2008}, author = {Jackson, R and Shields, KN}, title = {Preparing the U.S. health community for climate change.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {57-73}, doi = {10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090755}, pmid = {18173384}, issn = {0163-7525}, mesh = {Community Health Services/*organization &amp; administration/standards ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Planning ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; United States ; }, abstract = {In society's effort to address and prepare for climate change, the health community itself must ensure that it is prepared. Health personnel will require flexible and iterative action plans to address climate change at the individual, hospital, local health department, state, and national levels. This requires that health workers analyze the impact of climate change with a view to human health, and then formulate robust policy and demonstrate authentic leadership. In this review, we summarize the status of the health community's preparation for climate change and provide specific recommendations for action at each level. Although preparation status and recommendations vary, our observation is that it is not enough for public health and medical care agencies and departments to develop policies and advocate change. They have a direct responsibility to demonstrate substantive leadership.}, }
@article {pmid18173382, year = {2008}, author = {Patz, J and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Gibbs, H and Woodruff, R}, title = {Health impact assessment of global climate change: expanding on comparative risk assessment approaches for policy making.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {27-39}, doi = {10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090750}, pmid = {18173382}, issn = {0163-7525}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Ecosystem ; Fossil Fuels/adverse effects/standards/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Public Health ; *Public Policy ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate change is projected to have adverse impacts on public health. Cobenefits may be possible from more upstream mitigation of greenhouse gases causing climate change. To help measure such cobenefits alongside averted disease-specific risks, a health impact assessment (HIA) framework can more comprehensively serve as a decision support tool. HIA also considers health equity, clearly part of the climate change problem. New choices for energy must be made carefully considering such effects as additional pressure on the world's forests through large-scale expansion of soybean and oil palm plantations, leading to forest clearing, biodiversity loss and disease emergence, expulsion of subsistence farmers, and potential increases in food prices and emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Investigators must consider the full range of policy options, supported by more comprehensive, flexible, and transparent assessment methods.}, }
@article {pmid18173380, year = {2008}, author = {Walsh, MP}, title = {Ancillary benefits for climate change mitigation and air pollution control in the world's motor vehicle fleets.}, journal = {Annual review of public health}, volume = {29}, number = {}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.091307.083257}, pmid = {18173380}, issn = {0163-7525}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; Gasoline/standards ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Motor Vehicles/*standards/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Vehicle Emissions/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {The global motor vehicle population has grown very rapidly in the past half century and is expected to continue to grow rapidly for the next several decades, especially in developing countries. As a result, vehicles are a major source of urban air pollution in many cities and are the fastest-growing source of greenhouse emissions. Strategies exist to reduce both problems, but many countries emphasize one over the other rather than pursuing strategies that reduce both concerns. Using diesel as an example, this article illustrates that it is now possible not only to reduce carbon dioxide with the increased use of diesel vehicles but also to improve urban air pollution. Doing so requires both stringent emissions regulations and clean fuels. Several principles contained in the Bellagio Memorandum are highlighted as guides for policy makers.}, }
@article {pmid18159708, year = {2007}, author = {Kiefer, B}, title = {[Obesity and global warming].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {3}, number = {134}, pages = {2696}, pmid = {18159708}, issn = {1660-9379}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Obesity/*epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid18156247, year = {2007}, author = {Stott, R}, title = {Climate change--2057.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {335}, number = {7633}, pages = {1318-1319}, pmid = {18156247}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Environmental Pollution ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Health/trends ; Travel ; }, abstract = {Writing in 2057, the BMJ’s Africa correspondent, Robin Stott, looks back at the development of the greatest medical advance of the first half of this century}, }
@article {pmid18096784, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Global warming coming home to roost in the American West.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {318}, number = {5858}, pages = {1859}, doi = {10.1126/science.318.5858.1859}, pmid = {18096784}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18096776, year = {2007}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Grassroots effort pays dividends on presidential campaign trail.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {318}, number = {5858}, pages = {1850-1851}, doi = {10.1126/science.318.5858.1850}, pmid = {18096776}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Industry ; *Politics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid18096774, year = {2007}, author = {Kintisch, E and Kerr, RA}, title = {Breakthrough of the year. Global warming, hotter than ever.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {318}, number = {5858}, pages = {1846-1847}, doi = {10.1126/science.318.5858.1846}, pmid = {18096774}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Politics ; United Nations ; United States ; }, abstract = {Climate change, a perennial runner-up for Breakthrough of the Year, broke from the pack this year--both in the pages of this section and in the public arena.}, }
@article {pmid18092039, year = {2007}, author = {Mott, RB}, title = {Can psychiatric approaches help to address global warming?.}, journal = {MedGenMed : Medscape general medicine}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {33; author reply 33}, pmid = {18092039}, issn = {1531-0132}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Physician's Role ; *Power Plants ; Psychiatry ; }, }
@article {pmid18079392, year = {2007}, author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Mumby, PJ and Hooten, AJ and Steneck, RS and Greenfield, P and Gomez, E and Harvell, CD and Sale, PF and Edwards, AJ and Caldeira, K and Knowlton, N and Eakin, CM and Iglesias-Prieto, R and Muthiga, N and Bradbury, RH and Dubi, A and Hatziolos, ME}, title = {Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {318}, number = {5857}, pages = {1737-1742}, doi = {10.1126/science.1152509}, pmid = {18079392}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anthozoa/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Dinoflagellida/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Eukaryota/physiology ; Fishes ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2 degrees C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.}, }
@article {pmid18079372, year = {2007}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Senate bill would provide billions for deploying cleaner technologies.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {318}, number = {5857}, pages = {1708-1709}, doi = {10.1126/science.318.5857.1708a}, pmid = {18079372}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18077422, year = {2007}, author = {Vieites, DR and Min, MS and Wake, DB}, title = {Rapid diversification and dispersal during periods of global warming by plethodontid salamanders.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {50}, pages = {19903-19907}, pmid = {18077422}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Genetic Speciation ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Natural History ; Phylogeny ; Urodela/*genetics ; }, abstract = {A phylogeny and timescale derived from analyses of multilocus nuclear DNA sequences for Holarctic genera of plethodontid salamanders reveal them to be an old radiation whose common ancestor diverged from sister taxa in the late Jurassic and underwent rapid diversification during the late Cretaceous. A North American origin of plethodontids was followed by a continental-wide diversification, not necessarily centered only in the Appalachian region. The colonization of Eurasia by plethodontids most likely occurred once, by dispersal during the late Cretaceous. Subsequent diversification in Asia led to the origin of Hydromantes and Karsenia, with the former then dispersing both to Europe and back to North America. Salamanders underwent rapid episodes of diversification and dispersal that coincided with major global warming events during the late Cretaceous and again during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal optimum. The major clades of plethodontids were established during these episodes, contemporaneously with similar phenomena in angiosperms, arthropods, birds, and mammals. Periods of global warming may have promoted diversification and both inter- and transcontinental dispersal in northern hemisphere salamanders by making available terrain that shortened dispersal routes and offered new opportunities for adaptive and vicariant evolution.}, }
@article {pmid18077405, year = {2007}, author = {Brander, KM}, title = {Global fish production and climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {50}, pages = {19709-19714}, pmid = {18077405}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; Aquaculture/trends ; *Climate ; *Fisheries ; *Fishes ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Current global fisheries production of approximately 160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but we have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are governed by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipitation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18077404, year = {2007}, author = {Schmidhuber, J and Tubiello, FN}, title = {Global food security under climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {50}, pages = {19703-19708}, pmid = {18077404}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate ; *Food Supply ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, abstract = {This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses.}, }
@article {pmid18077403, year = {2007}, author = {Kirilenko, AP and Sedjo, RA}, title = {Climate change impacts on forestry.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {50}, pages = {19697-19702}, pmid = {18077403}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/trends ; Forestry/*trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. Our review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. We concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand.}, }
@article {pmid18077402, year = {2007}, author = {Howden, SM and Soussana, JF and Tubiello, FN and Chhetri, N and Dunlop, M and Meinke, H}, title = {Adapting agriculture to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {50}, pages = {19691-19696}, pmid = {18077402}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/*trends ; Animals ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Food Supply ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.}, }
@article {pmid18077401, year = {2007}, author = {Tubiello, FN and Soussana, JF and Howden, SM}, title = {Crop and pasture response to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {50}, pages = {19686-19690}, pmid = {18077401}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/adverse effects ; *Climate ; *Crops, Agricultural ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Population Growth ; }, abstract = {We review recent research of importance to understanding crop and pasture plant species response to climate change. Topics include plant response to elevated CO(2) concentration, interactions with climate change variables and air pollutants, impacts of increased climate variability and frequency of extreme events, the role of weeds and pests, disease and animal health, issues in biodiversity, and vulnerability of soil carbon pools. We critically analyze the links between fundamental knowledge at the plant and plot level and the additional socio-economic variables that determine actual production and trade of food at regional to global scales. We conclude by making recommendations for current and future research needs, with a focus on continued and improved integration of experimental and modeling efforts.}, }
@article {pmid18077400, year = {2007}, author = {Morton, JF}, title = {The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {50}, pages = {19680-19685}, pmid = {18077400}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Agriculture/*trends ; *Climate ; Developing Countries ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Workforce ; }, abstract = {Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as "subsistence" or "smallholder" farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) intrinsic characteristics of these systems, particularly their complexity, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies, and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed, a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed, and future research needs are identified.}, }
@article {pmid18077399, year = {2007}, author = {Easterling, WE}, title = {Climate change and the adequacy of food and timber in the 21st century.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {50}, pages = {19679}, pmid = {18077399}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Food Supply ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Wood ; }, }
@article {pmid18075618, year = {2007}, author = {Blashki, G and McMichael, T and Karoly, DJ}, title = {Climate change and primary health care.}, journal = {Australian family physician}, volume = {36}, number = {12}, pages = {986-989}, pmid = {18075618}, issn = {0300-8495}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communicable Diseases ; *Delivery of Health Care ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; *Health Status ; Heat Stress Disorders ; Humans ; *Primary Health Care ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change and rising average global temperatures threaten to disrupt the physical, biological and ecological life support systems on which human health depends.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: This article overviews the evidence for human induced climate change, the predicted health impacts, and the role of primary health care professionals in managing these impacts.<br><br>DISCUSSION: Climate change has substantial potential health effects. These include heat stress related to heatwaves; injuries related to extreme weather events such as storms, fires and floods; infectious disease outbreaks due to changing patterns of mosquito borne and water borne diseases; poor nutrition from reduced food availability and affordability; the psychosocial impact of drought; and the displacement of communities. Primary health care has an important role in preparing for and responding to these climate change related threats to human health.}, }
@article {pmid18075175, year = {2007}, author = {Butler, D and McEntee, B and Onof, C and Hagger, A}, title = {Sewer storage tank performance under climate change.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {56}, number = {12}, pages = {29-35}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2007.760}, pmid = {18075175}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate ; Disasters ; Drainage, Sanitary/standards ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Sewage ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/*instrumentation/methods ; }, abstract = {This paper describes a study of the potential effects of climate change on the design and performance of sewer storage tanks. A long-term synthetic rainfall time-series has been derived based on the IPPC medium-high emission scenario for a case study in London. Results indicate a 35% increase in the number of storm events that cause filling of the tank and a 57% increase in the average volume of storage required. A method to estimate the required future storage volume for any given return period has been developed and described. Indications are that significantly larger storage volumes will be required to maintain the same level of flood protection.}, }
@article {pmid18075108, year = {2007}, author = {Hermann, BG and Blok, K and Patel, MK}, title = {Producing bio-based bulk chemicals using industrial biotechnology saves energy and combats climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {41}, number = {22}, pages = {7915-7921}, doi = {10.1021/es062559q}, pmid = {18075108}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Biomass ; Biotechnology/*methods ; Carbohydrates/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry ; Chemical Industry ; Climate ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Environment ; Fermentation ; Fossil Fuels ; Gases ; Greenhouse Effect ; Industry ; }, abstract = {The production of bulk chemicals from biomass can make a significant contribution to solving two of the most urgent environmental problems: climate change and depletion of fossil energy. We analyzed current and future technology routes leading to 15 bulk chemicals using industrial biotechnology and calculated their CO2 emissions and fossil energy use. Savings of more than 100% in non-renewable energy use and greenhouse gas emissions are already possible with current state of the art biotechnology. Substantial further savings are possible for the future by improved fermentation and downstream processing. Worldwide CO2 savings in the range of 500-1000 million tons per year are possible using future technology. Industrial biotechnology hence offers excellent opportunities for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and decreasing dependence on fossil energy sources and therefore has the potential to make inroads into the existing chemical industry.}, }
@article {pmid18074888, year = {2007}, author = {Chapin, FS and Danell, K and Elmqvist, T and Folke, C and Fresco, N}, title = {Managing climate change impacts to enhance the resilience and sustainability of Fennoscandian forests.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {36}, number = {7}, pages = {528-533}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[528:mccite]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {18074888}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; *Forestry ; Models, Theoretical ; Sweden ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Projected warming in Sweden and other Fennoscandian countries will probably increase growth rates of forest trees near their northern limits, increase the probability of new pest outbreaks, and foster northerly migration of both native and exotic species. The greatest challenges for sustainable forestry are to restore and enhance the ecological and socioeconomic diversity of intensively managed forested landscapes. With appropriate management, climate warming may facilitate the regeneration of this diversity. Experimental transplant gardens along latitudinal or altitudinal gradients and high-resolution maps of expected future climate could provide a scientific basis for predicting the climate response of potential migrant species. Management of corridors and assisted migration could speed the movement of appropriate species.}, }
@article {pmid18070100, year = {2008}, author = {Jansson, R and Davies, TJ}, title = {Global variation in diversification rates of flowering plants: energy vs. climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {173-183}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01138.x}, pmid = {18070100}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Energy Metabolism ; Genetic Speciation ; *Genetic Variation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Magnoliopsida/*genetics ; Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {We used the largest DNA-based phylogeny of flowering plants to date to evaluate the importance of energy vs. past climate change in predicting global patterns in diversification. Relative diversification rates increased towards the equator, suggesting that differences in per-lineage net diversification may be an important component of the latitudinal diversity gradient. The amplitude of Quaternary climate oscillations experienced by families explained variation in diversification equally well compared to contemporary energy measures, and energy and climate change measures were intercorrelated, making it difficult to reject either as a causal mechanism. Many putative mechanisms linking diversification to energy availability do not apply to plants, whereas the climate change mechanism has more support. We also present the first global map of angiosperm diversification, showing that, after correcting for family range-size, tropical diversification rates were fastest for clades currently in regions with high endemic species richness outside the main lowland rainforest areas.}, }
@article {pmid18070041, year = {2008}, author = {Jepsen, JU and Hagen, SB and Ims, RA and Yoccoz, NG}, title = {Climate change and outbreaks of the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata in subarctic birch forest: evidence of a recent outbreak range expansion.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {77}, number = {2}, pages = {257-264}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2007.01339.x}, pmid = {18070041}, issn = {1365-2656}, mesh = {Animals ; Betula/*parasitology ; *Climate ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Moths/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; Scandinavian and Nordic Countries ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {1. Range expansions mediated by recent climate warming have been documented for many insect species, including some important forest pests. However, whether climate change also influences the eruptive dynamics of forest pest insects, and hence the ecological and economical consequences of outbreaks, is largely unresolved. 2. Using historical outbreak records covering more than a century, we document recent outbreak range expansions of two species of cyclic geometrid moth, Operophtera brumata Bkh. (winter moth) and Epirrita autumnata L. (autumnal moth), in subarctic birch forest of northern Fennoscandia. The two species differ with respect to cold tolerance, and show strikingly different patterns in their recent outbreak range expansion. 3. We show that, during the past 15-20 years, the less cold-tolerant species O. brumata has experienced a pronounced north-eastern expansion into areas previously dominated by E. autumnata outbreaks. Epirrita autumnata, on the other hand, has expanded the region in which it exhibits regular outbreaks into the coldest, most continental areas. Our findings support the suggestion that recent climate warming in the region is the most parsimonious explanation for the observed patterns. 4. The presence of O. brumata outbreaks in regions previously affected solely by E. autumnata outbreaks is likely to increase the effective duration of local outbreaks, and hence have profound implications for the subarctic birch forest ecosystem.}, }
@article {pmid18062618, year = {2007}, author = {Maynard, NG and Conway, GA}, title = {A view from above: use of satellite imagery to enhance our understanding of potential impacts of climate change on human health in the Arctic.}, journal = {Alaska medicine}, volume = {49}, number = {3}, pages = {78-85}, pmid = {18062618}, issn = {0002-4538}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; Ozone/adverse effects ; *Public Health ; *Spacecraft ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Provide an overview and examples of some of the remote sensing technologies presently or potentially available, which could be used to address environmental health problems in the Arctic.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: The vulnerability of Arctic populations to health impacts from environmental, weather, and climate-related factors underscores the need for increased applications of technologies such as remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and global positioning systems (GPS) for empowering local health officials and decision-makers to better predict environment-related health problems, decrease vulnerabilities, take preventative measures, and improve community response actions as well as increase community health literacy.<br><br>METHODS/RESULTS: These increased capabilities for monitoring, risk mapping, information sharing, communications, and surveillance of environmental parameters are powerful tools for addressing such environmentally-related health problems as thermal stress; extreme weather; contaminant transport and deposition into oceans, atmosphere, and ice; air and water quality; built environment impacts; ultraviolet radiation (UV); and infectious and vector-borne diseases. For example, systems are now in place, which can observe ocean parameters, providing information on algal blooms, pollutants and pathogens as well as storm assessments and sea level rise.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Space-based systems in place can contribute valuable information through monitoring the processes of long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, where accumulation in animals and plants can occur. It is well-known that biomagnification up the food chain and ultimate consumption as traditional foods by indigenous peoples have resulted in some of the highest exposures in the world to certain contaminants.}, }
@article {pmid18053702, year = {2008}, author = {Lynch, JM and Schepers, JS}, title = {Soils, climate change and the OECD.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {673-677}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2007.09.021}, pmid = {18053702}, issn = {0956-053X}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Agencies ; International Cooperation ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Some concepts of sustainability applied to soils are given in relation to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Co-operative Research Programme 'Biological Resource Management for Sustainable Agricultural Systems'. The application of these concepts to climate change will be discussed in relation to seven high-profile papers published over the past 12 months. It is argued that multi-disciplinary (including social science) approaches are needed to address the issues. There is also a brief discussion on biomass energy in terms of soil sustainability and climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18048669, year = {2007}, author = {Raes, F and Swart, R}, title = {Climate change. Climate assessment: what's next?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {318}, number = {5855}, pages = {1386}, doi = {10.1126/science.1147873}, pmid = {18048669}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18048654, year = {2008}, author = {Malhi, Y and Roberts, JT and Betts, RA and Killeen, TJ and Li, W and Nobre, CA}, title = {Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {319}, number = {5860}, pages = {169-172}, doi = {10.1126/science.1146961}, pmid = {18048654}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Brazil ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/economics/trends ; Disasters ; *Ecosystem ; Fires ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; South America ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {The forest biome of Amazonia is one of Earth's greatest biological treasures and a major component of the Earth system. This century, it faces the dual threats of deforestation and stress from climate change. Here, we summarize some of the latest findings and thinking on these threats, explore the consequences for the forest ecosystem and its human residents, and outline options for the future of Amazonia. We also discuss the implications of new proposals to finance preservation of Amazonian forests.}, }
@article {pmid18048524, year = {2007}, author = {Watson, R}, title = {UN conference on climate change will test countries' commitment to public health.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {335}, number = {7630}, pages = {1116-1117}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.39409.520880.DB}, pmid = {18048524}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid18048511, year = {2007}, author = {Maryon-Davis, A and Gilmore, I and Hamilton, P}, title = {Climate change and health. We must all act now.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {335}, number = {7630}, pages = {1110}, pmid = {18048511}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Leadership ; *Professional Practice ; }, }
@article {pmid18048505, year = {2007}, author = {Gill, M and Godlee, F and Horton, R and Stott, R}, title = {Doctors and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {335}, number = {7630}, pages = {1104-1105}, pmid = {18048505}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; *Physician's Role ; *Professional Practice ; }, abstract = {Health professionals have a duty to be part of the solution}, }
@article {pmid18048343, year = {2007}, author = {Zhang, DD and Brecke, P and Lee, HF and He, YQ and Zhang, J}, title = {Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {49}, pages = {19214-19219}, pmid = {18048343}, issn = {1091-6490}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, 15th Century ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; History, Ancient ; History, Medieval ; Humans ; *Population Density ; Temperature ; *Warfare ; }, abstract = {Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.}, }
@article {pmid18048286, year = {2008}, author = {Welbergen, JA and Klose, SM and Markus, N and Eby, P}, title = {Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {275}, number = {1633}, pages = {419-425}, pmid = {18048286}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation/*physiology ; Chiroptera/*physiology ; *Climate ; Female ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; *Mortality ; New South Wales ; Observation ; Population Dynamics ; Sex Factors ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Little is known about the effects of temperature extremes on natural systems. This is of increasing concern now that climate models predict dramatic increases in the intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes. Here we examine the effects of temperature extremes on behaviour and demography of vulnerable wild flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.). On 12 January 2002 in New South Wales, Australia, temperatures exceeding 42 degrees C killed over 3500 individuals in nine mixed-species colonies. In one colony, we recorded a predictable sequence of thermoregulatory behaviours (wing-fanning, shade-seeking, panting and saliva-spreading, respectively) and witnessed how 5-6% of bats died from hyperthermia. Mortality was greater among the tropical black flying-fox, Pteropus alecto (10-13%) than the temperate grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus (less than 1%), and young and adult females were more affected than adult males (young, 23-49%; females, 10-15%; males, less than 3%). Since 1994, over 30000 flying-foxes (including at least 24500 P. poliocephalus) were killed during 19 similar events. Although P. alecto was relatively less affected, it is currently expanding its range into the more variable temperature envelope of P. poliocephalus, which increases the likelihood of die-offs occurring in this species. Temperature extremes are important additional threats to Australian flying-foxes and the ecosystem services they provide, and we recommend close monitoring of colonies where temperatures exceeding 42.0 degrees C are predicted. The effects of temperature extremes on flying-foxes highlight the complex implications of climate change for behaviour, demography and species survival.}, }
@article {pmid18047395, year = {2007}, author = {Nakazawa, Y and Williams, R and Peterson, AT and Mead, P and Staples, E and Gage, KL}, title = {Climate change effects on plague and tularemia in the United States.}, journal = {Vector borne and zoonotic diseases (Larchmont, N.Y.)}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {529-540}, doi = {10.1089/vbz.2007.0125}, pmid = {18047395}, issn = {1530-3667}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Models, Theoretical ; Plague/*epidemiology/transmission ; Rain ; Risk Factors ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Tularemia/*epidemiology/transmission ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Plague and tularemia are serious zoonotic diseases endemic to North America. We evaluated spatial patterns in their transmission in view of changing climates. First, we tested whether observed shifts since the 1960s are consistent with expected patterns of shift given known climate changes over that period. Then, we used general circulation model results summarizing global patterns of changing climates into the future to forecast likely shifts in patterns of transmission over the next 50 years. The results indicate that these diseases are indeed shifting in accord with patterns of climatic shift, but that overall geographic shifts will likely be subtle, with some northward movement of southern limits and possibly northward movement of northern limits as well.}, }
@article {pmid18047215, year = {2007}, author = {Estrada-Peña, A and Venzal, JM}, title = {Climate niches of tick species in the Mediterranean region: modeling of occurrence data, distributional constraints, and impact of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of medical entomology}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {1130-1138}, doi = {10.1603/0022-2585(2007)44[1130:cnotsi]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {18047215}, issn = {0022-2585}, mesh = {Animals ; Demography ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Mediterranean Region ; Models, Biological ; Ticks/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In this study, we used ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and principal components analysis (PCA) of climate variables to define the climate niches and areas of potential colonization of six species of ticks in the Mediterranean region: Dermacentor marginatus Sulzer, Rhipicephalus bursa Canestrini &amp; Fanzago, Rhipicephalus turanicus Pomerantsev, Matikashvili &amp; Lototsky, Hyalomma marginatum Koch, Hyalomma excavatum Koch, and Boophilus annulatus (Say). ENFA generated distribution models that varied in accuracy from high to very high (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.87-0.97), with the lowest AUC obtained for B. annulatus. PCA provided an adequate separation of the climate niches of different species in the reduced space of the variables. Climate scenarios and factorial consensus analysis were used to evaluate the geographic impact of climate change (as turnover in habitat suitability) on the niches of the ticks and net variations in habitat availability. The scenario that was most compatible with estimates of future climate in the Mediterranean region (increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall) was predicted to produce a sharp increase in the extent of suitable habitat for R. bursa, R. turanicus, and H. marginatum. This scenario would result in a northward expansion of suitable habitat areas for these three species. The highest impact (highest species turnover) would be recorded at the margin of the current distribution range of the three species. A sensitivity analysis of the ecological response of the ticks to the climate change scenarios showed that the response is statistically different in different regions of the PCA-derived niche. These results outline the need to further investigate the potential of bioclimate models to obtain accurate estimations of tick species turnover under conditions of climate change over wide areas.}, }
@article {pmid18044489, year = {2007}, author = {Fischhoff, B}, title = {Nonpersuasive communication about matters of greatest urgency: climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {41}, number = {21}, pages = {7204-7208}, doi = {10.1021/es0726411}, pmid = {18044489}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Behavior ; Climate ; *Communication ; Decision Making ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Science ; }, }
@article {pmid18043291, year = {2007}, author = {Faergeman, O}, title = {Climate change and preventive medicine.}, journal = {European journal of cardiovascular prevention and rehabilitation : official journal of the European Society of Cardiology, Working Groups on Epidemiology &amp; Prevention and Cardiac Rehabilitation and Exercise Physiology}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {726-729}, doi = {10.1097/HJR.0b013e3282f30097}, pmid = {18043291}, issn = {1741-8267}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; *Climate ; Ecology/methods ; Global Health ; Humans ; Morbidity/trends ; Preventive Medicine/*methods ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {Thermal stress, food poisoning, infectious diseases, malnutrition, psychiatric illness as well as injury and death from floods, storms and fire are all likely to become more common as the earth warms and the climate becomes more variable. In contrast, obesity, type II diabetes and coronary artery disease do not result from climate change, but they do share causes with climate change. Burning fossil fuels, for example, is the major source of greenhouse gases, but it also makes pervasive physical inactivity possible. Similarly, modern agriculture's enormous production of livestock contributes substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, and it is the source of many of our most energy-rich foods. Physicians and societies of medical professionals have a particular responsibility, therefore, to contribute to the public discourse about climate change and what to do about it.}, }
@article {pmid18038071, year = {2007}, author = {Corvalan, C}, title = {Climate change and human health.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {85}, number = {11}, pages = {830-832}, doi = {10.2471/blt.07.101107}, pmid = {18038071}, issn = {0042-9686}, mesh = {Animals ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Water Supply ; World Health Organization/organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {Protecting health against the effects of climate change will be next year’s theme for World Health Day (7 April 2008) and WHO’s 60th anniversary celebrations. Carlos Corvalan talks about WHO’s work with countries to help them tackle those effects and how climate change affects people’s health.}, }
@article {pmid18038069, year = {2007}, author = {Postigo, A and Haines, A and Neira, M and Confalonieri, U}, title = {Will increased awareness of the health impacts of climate change help in achieving international collective action?.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {85}, number = {11}, pages = {826-828}, doi = {10.2471/blt.07.021107}, pmid = {18038069}, issn = {0042-9686}, mesh = {*Awareness ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {Three experts discuss the ideas outlined by Antonio Postigo. They debate the importance of health in spurring action on climate change and look at how the international community can best respond.}, }
@article {pmid18038068, year = {2007}, author = {Brown, H}, title = {Reducing the impact of climate change.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {85}, number = {11}, pages = {824-825}, doi = {10.2471/blt.07.011107}, pmid = {18038068}, issn = {0042-9686}, mesh = {Disaster Planning/organization &amp; administration ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Planning/organization &amp; administration ; Heat Stress Disorders/epidemiology ; Humans ; World Health Organization/*organization &amp; administration ; }, abstract = {The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found that there is overwhelming evidence that humans are affecting climate and it highlighted the implications for human health. The World Health Organization (WHO) is helping countries respond to this challenge, primarily by encouraging them to build and reinforce public health systems as the first line of defence against climate-related health risks.}, }
@article {pmid18034837, year = {2008}, author = {Menge, BA and Chan, F and Lubchenco, J}, title = {Response of a rocky intertidal ecosystem engineer and community dominant to climate change.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {151-162}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01135.x}, pmid = {18034837}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Mytilus/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {To evaluate how climate change might impact a competitively dominant ecological engineer, we analysed the growth response of the mussel Mytilus californianus to climate patterns [El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)]. Mussels grew faster during warmer climatic events. Growth was initially faster on a more productive cape compared to a less productive cape. Growth rates at the two capes merged in 2002, coincidentally with a several year-long shift from warm to cool PDO conditions. To determine the mechanism underlying this response, we examined growth responses to intertidal sea and air temperatures, phytoplankton, sea level and tide height. Together, water temperature (32%) and food (12.5%) explained 44.5% of the variance in mussel growth; contributions of other factors were not significant. In turn, water temperature and food respond to climate-driven variation in upwelling and other, unknown factors. Understanding responses of ecosystem engineers to climate change will require knowing direct thermal effects and indirect effects of factors altered by temperature change.}, }
@article {pmid18033857, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. How urgent is climate change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {318}, number = {5854}, pages = {1230-1231}, doi = {10.1126/science.318.5854.1230}, pmid = {18033857}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Policy Making ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid18033654, year = {2007}, author = {Hemmer, CJ and Frimmel, S and Kinzelbach, R and Gürtler, L and Reisinger, EC}, title = {[Global warming: trailblazer for tropical infections in Germany?].}, journal = {Deutsche medizinische Wochenschrift (1946)}, volume = {132}, number = {48}, pages = {2583-2589}, doi = {10.1055/s-2007-993101}, pmid = {18033654}, issn = {1439-4413}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropod Vectors/growth &amp; development ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; Dengue/epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; Flavivirus Infections/epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; Germany/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Leishmaniasis/epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; Lyme Disease/epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; Malaria/epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; Tropical Climate/adverse effects ; Vibrio Infections/epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; West Nile Fever/epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; Yellow Fever/epidemiology/etiology/transmission ; }, abstract = {Since 1850, the CO (2) content of the atmosphere has increased from 280 to 360 ppm, and the average surface temperature has risen from 14.6 to 15.3 C . A further increase between 1.8 and 4.0 C is expected for the 21st century. Temperate and cold climate zones are affected predominantly, but tropical regions are not spared. At the same time, the world wide climate effects of the "El Niño Southern Oscillation" are amplified. Global warming enhances the growth of tropical pathogens (malarial plasmodia, leishmania, yellow fever virus, dengue virus, West Nile virus, Vibrio cholerae) and vectors (anopheles, aedes, culex, and phlebotomus mosquitos; hard ticks). Global warming may lead to the emergence of diseases which at present are not endemic in Germany, like West Nile fever, Dengue fever, or Leishmaniases, and to enhanced transmission of borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Malaria and cholera, in contrast, are influenced more strongly by socioeconomic factors. Improved surveillance and intensified research on the relationship between climate change and infectious diseases is needed.}, }
@article {pmid18033649, year = {2007}, author = {Hassler, D}, title = {[More infectious diseases due to global warming: a real danger or much ado about nothing?].}, journal = {Deutsche medizinische Wochenschrift (1946)}, volume = {132}, number = {48}, pages = {2557}, doi = {10.1055/s-2007-993096}, pmid = {18033649}, issn = {1439-4413}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropod Vectors/growth &amp; development ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; Europe/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid18030648, year = {2007}, author = {Sauerborn, R}, title = {Climate change: an agenda for research and teaching in public health.}, journal = {Scandinavian journal of public health}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {561-563}, doi = {10.1080/14034940701671388}, pmid = {18030648}, issn = {1403-4948}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; *Global Health ; Health Status ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Research ; Teaching ; }, }
@article {pmid18024332, year = {2008}, author = {Kellomäki, S and Peltola, H and Nuutinen, T and Korhonen, KT and Strandman, H}, title = {Sensitivity of managed boreal forests in Finland to climate change, with implications for adaptive management.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1501}, pages = {2341-2351}, pmid = {18024332}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Finland ; Forestry/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Species Specificity ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {This study investigated the sensitivity of managed boreal forests to climate change, with consequent needs to adapt the management to climate change. Model simulations representing the Finnish territory between 60 and 70 degrees N showed that climate change may substantially change the dynamics of managed boreal forests in northern Europe. This is especially probable at the northern and southern edges of this forest zone. In the north, forest growth may increase, but the special features of northern forests may be diminished. In the south, climate change may create a suboptimal environment for Norway spruce. Dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birches may compete with Scots pine even in these sites and the dominance of birches may increase. These changes may reduce the total forest growth locally but, over the whole of Finland, total forest growth may increase by 44%, with an increase of 82% in the potential cutting drain. The choice of appropriate species and reduced rotation length may sustain the productivity of forest land under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid18006716, year = {2007}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Scientists say continued warming warrants closer look at drastic fixes.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {318}, number = {5853}, pages = {1054-1055}, doi = {10.1126/science.318.5853.1054}, pmid = {18006716}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid18006415, year = {2008}, author = {MacDonald, GM and Kremenetski, KV and Beilman, DW}, title = {Climate change and the northern Russian treeline zone.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1501}, pages = {2285-2299}, pmid = {18006415}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; Russia ; Species Specificity ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The Russian treeline is a dynamic ecotone typified by steep gradients in summer temperature and regionally variable gradients in albedo and heat flux. The location of the treeline is largely controlled by summer temperatures and growing season length. Temperatures have responded strongly to twentieth-century global warming and will display a magnified response to future warming. Dendroecological studies indicate enhanced conifer recruitment during the twentieth century. However, conifers have not yet recolonized many areas where trees were present during the Medieval Warm period (ca AD 800-1,300) or the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; ca 10,000-3,000 years ago). Reconstruction of tree distributions during the HTM suggests that the future position of the treeline due to global warming may approximate its former Holocene maximum position. An increased dominance of evergreen tree species in the northern Siberian forests may be an important difference between past and future conditions. Based on the slow rates of treeline expansion observed during the twentieth century, the presence of steep climatic gradients associated with the current Arctic coastline and the prevalence of organic soils, it is possible that rates of treeline expansion will be regionally variable and transient forest communities with species abundances different from today's may develop.}, }
@article {pmid18006410, year = {2008}, author = {Post, E and Forchhammer, MC}, title = {Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1501}, pages = {2369-2375}, pmid = {18006410}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Animals ; Fertility/*physiology ; *Food Chain ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Greenland ; Plant Development ; Population Dynamics ; Reindeer/*physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {In highly seasonal environments, offspring production by vertebrates is timed to coincide with the annual peak of resource availability. For herbivores, this resource peak is represented by the annual onset and progression of the plant growth season. As plant phenology advances in response to climatic warming, there is potential for development of a mismatch between the peak of resource demands by reproducing herbivores and the peak of resource availability. For migratory herbivores, such as caribou, development of a trophic mismatch is particularly likely because the timing of their seasonal migration to summer ranges, where calves are born, is cued by changes in day length, while onset of the plant-growing season on the same ranges is cued by local temperatures. Using data collected since 1993 on timing of calving by caribou and timing of plant growth in West Greenland, we document the consequences for reproductive success of a developing trophic mismatch between caribou and their forage plants. As mean spring temperatures at our study site have risen by more than 4 degrees C, caribou have not kept pace with advancement of the plant-growing season on their calving range. As a consequence, offspring mortality has risen and offspring production has dropped fourfold.}, }
@article {pmid18006293, year = {2008}, author = {Mondini, C and Sánchez-Monedero, MA and Cayuela, ML and Stentiford, E}, title = {Soils and waste management: a challenge to climate change.}, journal = {Waste management (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {671-672}, doi = {10.1016/j.wasman.2007.10.004}, pmid = {18006293}, issn = {0956-053X}, mesh = {Carbon ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Soil ; Waste Management/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid17990820, year = {2007}, author = {Sachs, JD}, title = {Climate change and the law.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {297}, number = {5}, pages = {38, 40}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican1107-38}, pmid = {17990820}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid17987846, year = {2007}, author = {Menghi, CI}, title = {[Global warming: a hidden risk to health].}, journal = {Revista Argentina de microbiologia}, volume = {39}, number = {3}, pages = {131-132}, pmid = {17987846}, issn = {0325-7541}, mesh = {Disasters ; *Environmental Health ; Food Supply ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Meteorological Concepts ; }, }
@article {pmid17986429, year = {2008}, author = {Calosi, P and Bilton, DT and Spicer, JI}, title = {Thermal tolerance, acclimatory capacity and vulnerability to global climate change.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {99-102}, pmid = {17986429}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; Coleoptera/*physiology ; Demography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Hot Temperature ; }, abstract = {Despite evidence that organismal distributions are shifting in response to recent climatic warming, we have little information on direct links between species' physiology and vulnerability to climate change. We demonstrate a positive relationship between upper thermal tolerance and its acclimatory ability in a well-defined clade of closely related European diving beetles. We predict that species with the lowest tolerance to high temperatures will be most at risk from the adverse effects of future warming, since they have both low absolute thermal tolerance and poor acclimatory ability. Upper thermal tolerance is also positively related to species' geographical range size, meaning that species most at risk are already the most geographically restricted ones, being endemic to Mediterranean mountain systems. Our findings on the relationship between tolerance and acclimatory ability contrast with results from marine animals, suggesting that generalizations regarding thermal tolerance and responses to future rapid climate change may be premature.}, }
@article {pmid17978432, year = {2007}, author = {Imhoff, JC and Kittle, JL and Gray, MR and Johnson, TE}, title = {Using the Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) in U.S. EPA BASINS integrated modeling system to assess watershed vulnerability to climate change.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {56}, number = {8}, pages = {49-56}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2007.595}, pmid = {17978432}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Calibration ; *Climate ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Models, Theoretical ; *Software ; United States ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {During the last century, much of the United States experienced warming temperatures and changes in amount and intensity of precipitation. Changes in future climate conditions present additional risk to water and watershed managers. The most recent release of U.S. EPA's BASINS watershed modeling system includes a Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) that provides new capabilities for assessing impacts of climate change on water resources. The BASINS CAT provides users with the ability to modify historical climate and conduct systematic sensitivity analyses of specific hydrologic and water quality endpoints to changes in climate using the BASINS models (Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF)). These capabilities are well suited for addressing questions about the potential impacts of climate change on key hydrologic and water quality goals using the watershed scale at which most important planning decisions are made. This paper discusses the concepts that motivated the CAT development effort; the resulting capabilities incorporated into BASINS CAT; and the opportunities that result from integrating climate assessment capabilities into a comprehensive watershed water quality modeling system.}, }
@article {pmid17975040, year = {2007}, author = {Service, RF}, title = {Climate change. California stirs a $600 million pot of solutions.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {318}, number = {5851}, pages = {730}, doi = {10.1126/science.318.5851.730b}, pmid = {17975040}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17975036, year = {2007}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. CDC director's message on risk runs afoul of White House edits.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {318}, number = {5851}, pages = {726-727}, doi = {10.1126/science.318.5851.726}, pmid = {17975036}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S./organization &amp; administration ; *Climate ; *Environmental Health ; Federal Government ; Government Regulation ; Humans ; Politics ; Social Control Policies ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid17974260, year = {2007}, author = {Xiao, GJ and Zhang, Q and Wang, J}, title = {[Impact of global climate change on agro-ecosystem: a review].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {18}, number = {8}, pages = {1877-1885}, pmid = {17974260}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Air/analysis ; Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; China ; Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {In global climate change, the most important ecological factors influencing agricultural production and agro-ecosystem are elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, enhanced air temperature, and changed precipitation, which mainly exert on crop output, crop growth, diseases and pests, agricultural water resources, and structure and function of agro-ecosystem. In past decades, global climate change already made great influences on our agriculture and agro-ecosystem, especially the agricultural production in arid regions of North China, and many of the influences were negative or adverse. This paper summarized the impact of global climate change on agricultural water resources, soil nutrients, crop growth and development, diseases and pests, weeds, food safety, and structure and function of agro-ecosystem. Aiming at the challenges brought about by the global climate change to the agricultural production and agro-ecosystem in China in 21st century, the key points and difficulties in future research were put forward.}, }
@article {pmid17972410, year = {2007}, author = {Weart, S}, title = {RE: The discovery of global warming.}, journal = {Isis; an international review devoted to the history of science and its cultural influences}, volume = {98}, number = {3}, pages = {611; discussion 611-2}, pmid = {17972410}, issn = {0021-1753}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; History, 18th Century ; Humans ; Physics/*history ; Publishing ; }, }
@article {pmid17968423, year = {2007}, author = {Lane, N}, title = {Climate change: what's in the rising tide?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {449}, number = {7164}, pages = {778-780}, doi = {10.1038/449778a}, pmid = {17968423}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Cyanobacteria/metabolism ; *Ecosystem ; Eutrophication ; Geologic Sediments/*chemistry/microbiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Nitrates/analysis/metabolism ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Nitrogen Fixation ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis/metabolism ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen Consumption ; Phytoplankton/metabolism ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Waste Management/methods ; Zooplankton/metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid17968408, year = {2007}, author = {Schiermeier, Q and Tollefson, J}, title = {Climate change: a Nobel cause.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {449}, number = {7164}, pages = {766-767}, doi = {10.1038/449766a}, pmid = {17968408}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Federal Government ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; *Nobel Prize ; Politics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid17967924, year = {2007}, author = {Shea, KM and , }, title = {Global climate change and children's health.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {120}, number = {5}, pages = {e1359-67}, doi = {10.1542/peds.2007-2646}, pmid = {17967924}, issn = {1098-4275}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Child ; Environmental Health/standards/*trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {There is a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is warming, the process is accelerating, and that human activities are very likely (>90% probability) the main cause. This warming will have effects on ecosystems and human health, many of them adverse. Children will experience both the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Actions taken by individuals, communities, businesses, and governments will affect the magnitude and rate of global climate change and resultant health impacts. This technical report reviews the nature of the global problem and anticipated health effects on children and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.}, }
@article {pmid17967923, year = {2007}, author = {,  and Shea, KM}, title = {Global climate change and children's health.}, journal = {Pediatrics}, volume = {120}, number = {5}, pages = {1149-1152}, doi = {10.1542/peds.2007-2645}, pmid = {17967923}, issn = {1098-4275}, mesh = {Advisory Committees/*standards ; Child ; Environmental Health/methods/*standards ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; United States ; }, abstract = {There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to this change.}, }
@article {pmid17966831, year = {2007}, author = {Gostin, LO}, title = {Global climate change: the Roberts Court and environmental justice.}, journal = {The Hastings Center report}, volume = {37}, number = {5}, pages = {10-11}, doi = {10.1353/hcr.2007.0071}, pmid = {17966831}, issn = {0093-0334}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; *Supreme Court Decisions ; United States ; United States Environmental Protection Agency/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid17963794, year = {2007}, author = {Schiedek, D and Sundelin, B and Readman, JW and Macdonald, RW}, title = {Interactions between climate change and contaminants.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {54}, number = {12}, pages = {1845-1856}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2007.09.020}, pmid = {17963794}, issn = {0025-326X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*metabolism/toxicity ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*metabolism/toxicity ; }, abstract = {There is now general consensus that climate change is a global threat and a challenge for the 21st century. More and more information is available demonstrating how increased temperature may affect aquatic ecosystems and living resources or how increased water levels may impact coastal zones and their management. Many ecosystems are also affected by human releases of contaminants, for example from land based sources or the atmosphere, which also may cause severe effects. So far these two important stresses on ecosystems have mainly been discussed independently. The present paper is intended to increase awareness among scientists, coastal zone managers and decision makers that climate change will affect contaminant exposure and toxic effects and that both forms of stress will impact aquatic ecosystems and biota. Based on examples from different ecosystems, we discuss risks anticipated from contaminants in a rapidly changing environment and the research required to understand and predict how on-going and future climate change may alter risks from chemical pollution.}, }
@article {pmid17962073, year = {2007}, author = {Brooks, DR and Hoberg, EP}, title = {How will global climate change affect parasite-host assemblages?.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {23}, number = {12}, pages = {571-574}, doi = {10.1016/j.pt.2007.08.016}, pmid = {17962073}, issn = {1471-4922}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Disease Vectors ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Host-Parasite Interactions/*physiology ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Parasites/*physiology ; Parasitic Diseases/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {Parasites are integral components of the biosphere. Host switching correlated with events of episodic climate change is ubiquitous in evolutionary and ecological time. Global climate change produces ecological perturbations, which cause geographical and phenological shifts, and alteration in the dynamics of parasite transmission, increasing the potential for host switching. The intersection of climate change with evolutionary conservative aspects of host specificity and transmission dynamics, called ecological fitting, permits emergence of parasites and diseases without evolutionary changes in their capacity for host utilization.}, }
@article {pmid17947552, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA and Kintisch, E}, title = {Global warming. Nobel Peace Prize won by host of scientists and one crusader.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {318}, number = {5849}, pages = {372-373}, doi = {10.1126/science.318.5849.372}, pmid = {17947552}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17941838, year = {2007}, author = {Carnaval, AC and Bates, JM}, title = {Amphibian DNA shows marked genetic structure and tracks pleistocene climate change in northeastern Brazil.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {61}, number = {12}, pages = {2942-2957}, doi = {10.1111/j.1558-5646.2007.00241.x}, pmid = {17941838}, issn = {0014-3820}, mesh = {Animals ; Anura/classification/*genetics ; Brazil ; *Climate ; DNA, Mitochondrial/chemistry ; Genetic Markers ; Geography ; Haplotypes ; Likelihood Functions ; Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-myc/chemistry/genetics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {The glacial refugia paradigm has been broadly applied to patterns of species dynamics and population diversification. However, recent geological studies have demonstrated striking Pleistocene climate changes in currently semiarid northeastern Brazil at time intervals much more frequent than the climatic oscillations associated with glacial and interglacial periods. These geomorphic data documented recurrent pulses of wet regimes in the past 210,000 years that correlate with climate anomalies affecting multiple continents. While analyzing DNA sequences of two mitochondrial genes (cytochrome b and NADH-dehydrogenase subunit 2) and one nuclear marker (cellular-myelocytomatosis proto-oncogene) in the forest-associated frogs Proceratophrys boiei and Ischnocnema gr. ramagii, we found evidence of biological responses consistent with these pluvial maxima events. Sampled areas included old, naturally isolated forest enclaves within the semiarid Caatinga, as well as recent man-made fragments of humid coastal Atlantic forest. Results show that mtDNA lineages in enclave populations are monophyletic or nearly so, whereas nonenclave populations are polyphyletic and more diverse. The studied taxa show evidence of demographic expansions at times that match phases of pluvial maxima inferred from geological data. Divergence times between several populations fall within comparatively drier intervals suggested by geomorphology. Mitochondrial and nuclear data show local populations to be genetically structured, with some high levels of differentiation that suggest the need of further taxonomic work.}, }
@article {pmid17941401, year = {2007}, author = {Zhang, Y and Bi, P and Hiller, JE}, title = {Climate change and disability-adjusted life years.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health}, volume = {70}, number = {3}, pages = {32-36}, pmid = {17941401}, issn = {0022-0892}, mesh = {Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Environmental Pollutants/adverse effects ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Morbidity ; *Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {The authors conducted a systematic review of the studies of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost because of climate change. The review considered both methodological issues and research results. It found that little is known about DALYs lost because of climate change, except for results based on limited information presented in the World Health Organization (WHO) global-burden-of-disease study in 2002. The measurement of DALYs attributable to climate change presents additional difficulties over measurement of DALYs attributable to other causes. Further studies linking DALYs and climate change should be conducted in various populations and in different ecological regions, including developing countries.}, }
@article {pmid17935755, year = {2007}, author = {Kingston, JD and Deino, AL and Edgar, RK and Hill, A}, title = {Astronomically forced climate change in the Kenyan Rift Valley 2.7-2.55 Ma: implications for the evolution of early hominin ecosystems.}, journal = {Journal of human evolution}, volume = {53}, number = {5}, pages = {487-503}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhevol.2006.12.007}, pmid = {17935755}, issn = {0047-2484}, mesh = {Africa ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; Diatoms/growth &amp; development ; *Ecosystem ; Emigration and Immigration ; Fossils ; Fresh Water ; *Geography ; Geologic Sediments ; Hominidae/*genetics ; Humans ; Paleontology ; }, abstract = {Global climate change, linked to astronomical forcing factors, has been implicated in faunal evolutionary change in equatorial Africa, including the origin and diversification of hominin lineages. Empirical terrestrial data demonstrating that orbital forcing has a significant effect, or is detectable, at early hominin sites in equatorial continental interiors during the Pliocene, however, remain limited. Sedimentation patterns in the Baringo Basin within the Central Kenyan Rift Valley between ca. 2.7 and 2.55 Ma, controlled by climatic factors, provide a detailed paleoenvironmental record spanning 35 fossil vertebrate localities, including three hominin sites. The succession includes a sequence of diatomites that record rhythmic cycling of major freshwater lake systems consistent with approximately 23-kyr Milankovitch precessional periodicity. The temporal framework of shifting precipitation patterns, relative to Pliocene insolation curves, implicate African monsoonal climatic control and indicate that climatic fluctuations in Rift Valley ecosystems were paced by global climatic change documented in marine cores. These data provide direct evidence of orbitally mediated environmental change at Pliocene Rift Valley hominin fossil localities, providing a unique opportunity to assess the evolutionary effect of short-term climatic flux on late Pliocene East African terrestrial communities.}, }
@article {pmid17929607, year = {2007}, author = {Maynard, NG and Conway, GA}, title = {A view from above: use of satellite imagery to enhance our understanding of potential impacts of climate change on human health in the Arctic.}, journal = {Alaska medicine}, volume = {49}, number = {2 Suppl}, pages = {38-43}, pmid = {17929607}, issn = {0002-4538}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Arctic Regions ; *Cold Temperature ; Environment ; Environmental Health ; Geographic Information Systems ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Spacecraft ; Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Provide an overview and examples of some of the remote sensing technologies presently or potentially available, which could be used to address environmental health problems in the Arctic.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: The vulnerability of Arctic populations to health impacts from environmental, weather, and climate-related factors underscores the need for increased applications of technologies such as remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and global positioning systems (GPS) for empowering local health officials and decision-makers to better predict environment-related health problems, decrease vulnerabilities, take preventative measures, and improve community response actions as well as increase community health literacy.<br><br>METHODS/RESULTS: These increased capabilities for monitoring, risk mapping, information sharing, communications, and surveillance of environmental parameters are powerful tools for addressing such environmentally-related health problems as thermal stress; extreme weather; contaminant transport and deposition into oceans, atmosphere, and ice; air and water quality; built environment impacts; ultraviolet radiation (UV); and infectious and vector-borne diseases. For example, systems are now in place, which can observe ocean parameters, providing information on algal blooms, pollutants and pathogens as well as storm assessments and sea level rise.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Space-based systems in place can contribute valuable information through monitoring the processes of long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, where accumulation in animals and plants can occur. It is well-known that biomagnification up the food chain and ultimate consumption as traditional foods by indigenous peoples have resulted in some of the highest exposures in the world to certain contaminants.}, }
@article {pmid17923247, year = {2008}, author = {Tompkins, EL and Few, R and Brown, K}, title = {Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {88}, number = {4}, pages = {1580-1592}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2007.07.025}, pmid = {17923247}, issn = {0301-4797}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.}, }
@article {pmid17922701, year = {2007}, author = {Ahola, MP and Laaksonen, T and Eeva, T and Lehikoinen, E}, title = {Climate change can alter competitive relationships between resident and migratory birds.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {76}, number = {6}, pages = {1045-1052}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2007.01294.x}, pmid = {17922701}, issn = {0021-8790}, mesh = {Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Breeding/*methods ; *Climate ; *Competitive Behavior ; Demography ; Ecosystem ; Female ; Male ; Passeriformes/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change could affect resource competition between resident and migratory bird species by changing the interval between their onsets of breeding or by altering their population densities. We studied interspecific nest-hole competition between resident great tits and migrant pied flycatchers in South-Western Finland over the past five decades (1953-2005). We found that appearance of fatal take-over trials, the cases where a pied flycatcher tried to take over a great tit nest but was killed by the tit, increased with a reduced interspecific laying date interval and with increasing densities of both tits and flycatchers. The probability of pied flycatchers taking over great tit nests increased with the density of pied flycatchers. Laying dates of the great tit and pied flycatcher are affected by the temperatures of different time periods, and divergent changes in these temperatures could consequently modify their competitive interactions. Densities are a result of reproductive success and survival, which can be affected by separate climatic factors in the resident great tit and trans-Saharan migrant pied flycatcher. On these bases we conclude that climate change has a great potential to alter the competitive balance between these two species.}, }
@article {pmid17919937, year = {2008}, author = {Gamble, T and Simons, AM and Colli, GR and Vitt, LJ}, title = {Tertiary climate change and the diversification of the Amazonian gecko genus Gonatodes (Sphaerodactylidae, Squamata).}, journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution}, volume = {46}, number = {1}, pages = {269-277}, doi = {10.1016/j.ympev.2007.08.013}, pmid = {17919937}, issn = {1055-7903}, mesh = {Animals ; Cell Nucleus/genetics ; *Climate ; Genes, Mitochondrial/genetics ; *Genetic Speciation ; Genetic Variation ; Lizards/*classification/*genetics ; Phylogeny ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; South America ; }, abstract = {The genus Gonatodes is a monophyletic group of small-bodied, diurnal geckos distributed across northern South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. We used fragments of three nuclear genes (RAG2, ACM4, and c-mos) and one mitochondrial gene (16S) to estimate phylogenetic relationships among Amazonian species of Gonatodes. We used Penalized Likelihood to estimate timing of diversification in the genus. Most cladogenesis occurred in the Oligocene and early Miocene and coincided with a burst of diversification in other South American animal groups including mollusks, birds, and mammals. The Oligocene and early Miocene were periods dominated by dramatic climate change and Andean orogeny and we suggest that these factors drove the burst of cladogenesis in Gonatodes geckos as well as other taxa. A common pattern in Amazonian taxa is a biogeographic split between the eastern and western Amazon basin. We observed two clades with this spatial distribution, although large differences in timing of divergence between the east-west taxon pairs indicate that these divergences were not the result of a common vicariant event.}, }
@article {pmid17916700, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Is battered Arctic Sea ice down for the count?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {318}, number = {5847}, pages = {33-34}, doi = {10.1126/science.318.5847.33a}, pmid = {17916700}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17915714, year = {2007}, author = {Chen, YN and Li, WH and Xu, CC and Hao, XM}, title = {Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {19}, number = {4}, pages = {488-493}, doi = {10.1016/s1001-0742(07)60082-5}, pmid = {17915714}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {China ; *Climate ; Rain ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Based on hydrology, temperature, and precipitation data from the past 50 years, the effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin in Northwest China were investigated. The long-term trends of the hydrological time series were detected using both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The results showed that the increasing tendency of the temperature has a 5% level of significance, and the temperature increased by nearly 1 degree C over the past 50 years. The precipitation showed a significant increase in the 1980s and 1990s, and the average annual precipitation exhibited an increasing trend with a magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both the temperature and precipitation time series around 1986. The streamflow from the headwater of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increase during the last 20 years. The increase in temperature, precipitation, and streamflow may be attributed to global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid17915289, year = {2007}, author = {Maslin, MA and Christensen, B}, title = {Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume.}, journal = {Journal of human evolution}, volume = {53}, number = {5}, pages = {443-464}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhevol.2007.06.005}, pmid = {17915289}, issn = {0047-2484}, mesh = {Africa ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; Geography ; Hominidae/*genetics ; Humans ; *Paleontology ; Plants/chemistry ; }, abstract = {The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa becomes locally sensitive to precessional forcing, resulting in rapid shifts from wet to dry conditions. These periods of extreme climate variability may have provided a catalyst for evolutionary change and driven key speciation and dispersal events amongst mammals and hominins in Africa. In particular, hominin species seem to differentially originate and go extinct during periods of extreme climate variability. Results presented in this volume may represent the basis of a new theory of early human evolution in Africa.}, }
@article {pmid17910140, year = {2007}, author = {Rawlins, SC and Chen, A and Rawlins, JM and Chadee, DD and Legall, G}, title = {A knowledge, attitude and practices study of the issues of climate change/variability impacts and public health in Trinidad and Tobago, and St Kitts and Nevis.}, journal = {The West Indian medical journal}, volume = {56}, number = {2}, pages = {115-121}, doi = {10.1590/s0043-31442007000200003}, pmid = {17910140}, issn = {0043-3144}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Data Collection ; Dengue/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Health Promotion ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Public Health/*trends ; Residence Characteristics ; Saint Kitts and Nevis/epidemiology ; Social Marketing ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Trinidad and Tobago/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To determine the level of understanding of the issues of climate change (CC)/variability (CV) and public health by populations of St Kitts and Nevis (SKN) and Trinidad and Tobago (T&amp;T) and to find whether respondents would be willing to incorporate these values into strategies for dengue fever (DF) prevention.<br><br>DESIGN AND METHODS: Using a cluster sampling system, representative samples of the communities of SKN (227) and T&amp;T (650) were surveyed for responses to a questionnaire document with questions on the impact of climate variability on health, the physical environment, respondents' willingness to utilize climate issues to predict and adapt to climate variability for DF prevention. Data were analyzed by Epi Info.<br><br>RESULTS: Sixty-two per cent SKN and 55% T&amp;T of respondents showed some understanding of the concept of climate change (CC) and distinguished this from climate variability (CV). With regard to causes of CC, 48% SKN and 50% T&amp;T attributed CC to all of green houses gases, holes in the ozone layer burning of vegetation and vehicular exhaust gases. However some 39.3% SKN and 31% (T&amp;T) did not answer this question. In response to ranking issues of life affected by CC/CV in both countries, respondents ranked them: health > water resources > agriculture > biodiversity > coastal degradation. The major health issues identified for SKN and T&amp;T respondents were: food-borne diseases > water-borne diseases > heat stresses; vector-borne diseases were only ranked 4th and 5th for SKN and T&amp;T respondents respectively. There was in both countries a significant proportion of respondents (p < 0.001) who reported wet season-related increase of DF cases as a CC/CV link. Respondents identified use of environmental sanitation (ES) at appropriate times as a method of choice of using CC/CV to prevent DF outbreaks. More than 82% in both countries saw the use of the CC/CV information for DF prevention by prediction and control as strategic but only 50-51% were inclined to become personally involved. Currently, only 50% SKN and 45% T&amp;T respondents claimed current involvement in DF vector surveillance and control in the last two days.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Despite the fact that knowledge and attitudes did not always coincide with practices of using ES for DF prevention, in both countries, even with CC/CV tools of prediction being available, it seems that respondents could be persuaded to use such strategies. There is a need for demonstration of the efficacy of CC/CV information and promotion of its usefulness for community involvement in DF and possibly other disease prevention.}, }
@article {pmid17901496, year = {2007}, author = {Roehr, B}, title = {Doctors should speak out on climate change, expert says.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {335}, number = {7621}, pages = {636}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.39349.474502.DB}, pmid = {17901496}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid17901315, year = {2007}, author = {Harvey, H}, title = {Climate change: one goal at a time.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5846}, pages = {1866}, doi = {10.1126/science.317.5846.1866}, pmid = {17901315}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17901314, year = {2007}, author = {Krupp, F}, title = {Climate change: don't forfeit the game.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5846}, pages = {1864-1866}, doi = {10.1126/science.317.5846.1864c}, pmid = {17901314}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17901306, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. A far-south start for ice age's end.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5846}, pages = {1847}, doi = {10.1126/science.317.5846.1847a}, pmid = {17901306}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17901302, year = {2007}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Environmental policy. Tougher ozone accord also addresses global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5846}, pages = {1843}, doi = {10.1126/science.317.5846.1843}, pmid = {17901302}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17901211, year = {2007}, author = {Vallina, SM and Simó, R and Manizza, M}, title = {Weak response of oceanic dimethylsulfide to upper mixing shoaling induced by global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {41}, pages = {16004-16009}, pmid = {17901211}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Climate ; Dimethyl Sulfoxide/metabolism/*radiation effects ; Feedback ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; Models, Chemical ; Oceans and Seas ; Plankton/metabolism/radiation effects ; Seasons ; Seawater/*chemistry ; *Sunlight ; }, abstract = {The solar radiation dose in the oceanic upper mixed layer (SRD) has recently been identified as the main climatic force driving global dimethylsulfide (DMS) dynamics and seasonality. Because DMS is suggested to exert a cooling effect on the earth radiative budget through its involvement in the formation and optical properties of tropospheric clouds over the ocean, a positive relationship between DMS and the SRD supports the occurrence of a negative feedback between the oceanic biosphere and climate, as postulated 20 years ago. Such a natural feedback might partly counteract anthropogenic global warming through a shoaling of the mixed layer depth (MLD) and a consequent increase of the SRD and DMS concentrations and emission. By applying two globally derived DMS diagnostic models to global fields of MLD and chlorophyll simulated with an Ocean General Circulation Model coupled to a biogeochemistry model for a 50% increase of atmospheric CO(2) and an unperturbed control run, we have estimated the response of the DMS-producing pelagic ocean to global warming. Our results show a net global increase in surface DMS concentrations, especially in summer. This increase, however, is so weak (globally 1.2%) that it can hardly be relevant as compared with the radiative forcing of the increase of greenhouse gases. This contrasts with the seasonal variability of DMS (1000-2000% summer-to-winter ratio). We suggest that the "plankton-DMS-clouds-earth albedo feedback" hypothesis is less strong a long-term thermostatic system than a seasonal mechanism that contributes to regulate the solar radiation doses reaching the earth's biosphere.}, }
@article {pmid17894174, year = {2007}, author = {Collins, W and Colman, R and Haywood, J and Manning, MR and Mote, P}, title = {The physical science behind climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {297}, number = {2}, pages = {64-73}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0807-64}, pmid = {17894174}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid17894167, year = {2007}, author = {}, title = {Worse than gasoline. Liquid coal would produce roughly twice the global warming emissions of gasoline.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {297}, number = {2}, pages = {32}, pmid = {17894167}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid17891988, year = {2007}, author = {Anderson, K}, title = {Global warming health warning.}, journal = {Australian nursing journal (July 1993)}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {10}, pmid = {17891988}, issn = {1320-3185}, mesh = {Australia ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Planning ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid17889900, year = {2008}, author = {Terblanche, JS and Clusella-Trullas, S and Deere, JA and Chown, SL}, title = {Thermal tolerance in a south-east African population of the tsetse fly Glossina pallidipes (Diptera, Glossinidae): implications for forecasting climate change impacts.}, journal = {Journal of insect physiology}, volume = {54}, number = {1}, pages = {114-127}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinsphys.2007.08.007}, pmid = {17889900}, issn = {0022-1910}, support = {AI-52456/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; *Climate ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Kenya ; Motor Activity/physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Survival Analysis ; *Temperature ; Tsetse Flies/*physiology ; Zambia ; }, abstract = {For tsetse (Glossina spp.), the vectors of human and animal trypanosomiases, the physiological mechanisms linking variation in population dynamics with changing weather conditions have not been well established. Here, we investigate high- and low-temperature tolerance in terms of activity limits and survival in a natural population of adult Glossina pallidipes from eastern Zambia. Due to increased interest in chilling flies for handling and aerial dispersal in sterile insect technique control and eradication programmes, we also provide further detailed investigation of low-temperature responses. In wild-caught G. pallidipes, the probability of survival for 50% of the population at low-temperatures was at 3.7, 8.9 and 9.6 degrees C (95% CIs: +/-1.5 degrees C) for 1, 2 and 3 h treatments, respectively. At high temperatures, it was estimated that treatments at 37.9, 36.2 and 35.6 degrees C (95% CIs: +/-0.5 degrees C) would yield 50% population survival for 1, 2 and 3 h, respectively. Significant effects of time and temperature were detected at both temperature extremes (GLZ, p<0.05 in all cases) although a time-temperature interaction was only detected at high temperatures (p<0.0001). We synthesized data from four other Kenyan populations and found that upper critical thermal limits showed little variation among populations and laboratory treatments (range: 43.9-45.0 degrees C; 0.25 degrees C/min heating rate), although reduction to more ecologically relevant heating rates (0.06 degrees C/min) reduce these values significantly from approximately 44.4 to 40.6 degrees C, thereby providing a causal explanation for why tsetse distribution may be high-temperature limited. By contrast, low-temperature limits showed substantial variation among populations and acclimation treatments (range: 4.5-13.8 degrees C; 0.25 degrees C/min), indicating high levels of inter-population variability. Ecologically relevant cooling rates (0.06 degrees C/min) suggest tsetses are likely to experience chill coma temperatures under natural conditions (approximately 20-21 degrees C). The results from acute hardening experiments in the Zambian population demonstrate limited ability to improve low-temperature tolerance over short (hourly) timescales after non-lethal pre-treatments. In flies which survived chilling, recovery times were non-linear with plateaus between 2-6 and 8-12 degrees C. Survival times ranged between 4 and 36 h and did not vary between flies which had undergone chill coma by comparison with flies which had not, even after factoring body condition into the analyses (p>0.5 in all cases). However, flies with low chill coma values had the highest body water and fat content, indicating that when energy reserves are depleted, low-temperature tolerance may be compromised. Overall, these results suggest that physiological mechanisms may provide insight into tsetse population dynamics, hence distribution and abundance, and support a general prediction for reduced geographic distribution under future climate warming scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid17885104, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Panel gives U.S. program mixed grades.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5845}, pages = {1667}, doi = {10.1126/science.317.5845.1667a}, pmid = {17885104}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17883502, year = {2007}, author = {Hunter, ML}, title = {Climate change and moving species: furthering the debate on assisted colonization.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {21}, number = {5}, pages = {1356-1358}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00780.x}, pmid = {17883502}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Extinction, Biological ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; Research ; }, }
@article {pmid17883501, year = {2007}, author = {Skelly, DK and Joseph, LN and Possingham, HP and Freidenburg, LK and Farrugia, TJ and Kinnison, MT and Hendry, AP}, title = {Evolutionary responses to climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {21}, number = {5}, pages = {1353-1355}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00764.x}, pmid = {17883501}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Biological Evolution ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid17872430, year = {2007}, author = {Oppenheimer, M and O'Neill, BC and Webster, M and Agrawala, S}, title = {Climate change. The limits of consensus.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5844}, pages = {1505-1506}, doi = {10.1126/science.1144831}, pmid = {17872430}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Consensus ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice Cover ; Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Policy Making ; }, }
@article {pmid17868819, year = {2007}, author = {Haines, A and Smith, KR and Anderson, D and Epstein, PR and McMichael, AJ and Roberts, I and Wilkinson, P and Woodcock, J and Woods, J}, title = {Policies for accelerating access to clean energy, improving health, advancing development, and mitigating climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {370}, number = {9594}, pages = {1264-1281}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61257-4}, pmid = {17868819}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Climate ; Energy-Generating Resources/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Environmental Pollution/adverse effects/economics/prevention &amp; control ; Food Supply/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {The absence of reliable access to clean energy and the services it provides imposes a large disease burden on low-income populations and impedes prospects for development. Furthermore, current patterns of fossil-fuel use cause substantial ill-health from air pollution and occupational hazards. Impending climate change, mainly driven by energy use, now also threatens health. Policies to promote access to non-polluting and sustainable sources of energy have great potential both to improve public health and to mitigate (prevent) climate disruption. There are several technological options, policy levers, and economic instruments for sectors such as power generation, transport, agriculture, and the built environment. However, barriers to change include vested interests, political inertia, inability to take meaningful action, profound global inequalities, weak technology-transfer mechanisms, and knowledge gaps that must be addressed to transform global markets. The need for policies that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate while addressing the energy needs of disadvantaged people is a central challenge of the current era. A comprehensive programme for clean energy should optimise mitigation and, simultaneously, adaption to climate change while maximising co-benefits for health--eg, through improved air, water, and food quality. Intersectoral research and concerted action, both nationally and internationally, will be required.}, }
@article {pmid17868818, year = {2007}, author = {McMichael, AJ and Powles, JW and Butler, CD and Uauy, R}, title = {Food, livestock production, energy, climate change, and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {370}, number = {9594}, pages = {1253-1263}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61256-2}, pmid = {17868818}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Agriculture/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Animals ; Dairy Products/statistics &amp; numerical data/*supply &amp; distribution ; Developed Countries/*economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Energy Metabolism ; *Food Supply/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Meat/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data/supply &amp; distribution ; }, abstract = {Food provides energy and nutrients, but its acquisition requires energy expenditure. In post-hunter-gatherer societies, extra-somatic energy has greatly expanded and intensified the catching, gathering, and production of food. Modern relations between energy, food, and health are very complex, raising serious, high-level policy challenges. Together with persistent widespread under-nutrition, over-nutrition (and sedentarism) is causing obesity and associated serious health consequences. Worldwide, agricultural activity, especially livestock production, accounts for about a fifth of total greenhouse-gas emissions, thus contributing to climate change and its adverse health consequences, including the threat to food yields in many regions. Particular policy attention should be paid to the health risks posed by the rapid worldwide growth in meat consumption, both by exacerbating climate change and by directly contributing to certain diseases. To prevent increased greenhouse-gas emissions from this production sector, both the average worldwide consumption level of animal products and the intensity of emissions from livestock production must be reduced. An international contraction and convergence strategy offers a feasible route to such a goal. The current global average meat consumption is 100 g per person per day, with about a ten-fold variation between high-consuming and low-consuming populations. 90 g per day is proposed as a working global target, shared more evenly, with not more than 50 g per day coming from red meat from ruminants (ie, cattle, sheep, goats, and other digastric grazers).}, }
@article {pmid17868290, year = {2007}, author = {Haenel, GJ}, title = {Phylogeography of the tree lizard, Urosaurus ornatus: responses of populations to past climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {16}, number = {20}, pages = {4321-4334}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03515.x}, pmid = {17868290}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/genetics ; Animals ; Arizona ; Bayes Theorem ; Climate ; Colorado ; Cytochromes b/genetics ; DNA, Mitochondrial/chemistry/genetics ; Genetics, Population ; Geography ; Lizards/classification/*genetics ; Models, Genetic ; Molecular Sequence Data ; New Mexico ; *Phylogeny ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Utah ; }, abstract = {Isolation due to both geological barriers and range contractions during the Pleistocene glacial maxima has been an important cause of diversification of arid-adapted species in the North American deserts. Tree lizards, Urosaurus ornatus, are distributed across much of the southwestern arid regions and can tolerate a wide range of environments. Thus, they may have avoided large-scale shifts in distribution caused by Pleistocene climate change and any subsequent evolutionary impacts. Cytochrome b sequences were sampled from U. ornatus across the northern part of their range to test if current structure of these populations resulted from post-Pleistocene range expansion and habitat fragmentation, or prior geological isolation. Phylogenetic analyses found geographical structuring of populations consistent with a model of long-term geographical isolation corresponding to each of the desert regions. The two post-Pleistocene hypotheses were not well supported as estimated times of divergence predated the retreat of the last continental ice sheet. Populations in different regions were impacted by different processes. Southern populations of U. ornatus appear to have remained largely independent of more derived northern and eastern populations during Pleistocene climate change, while populations in regions containing more derived populations showed evidence of more recent range expansion (Colorado Plateau). As populations of U. ornatus attest to, the complex and dynamic history of the southwestern USA has left a deep-rooted and multifaceted imprint on genetic and phylogeographical structure of the species living there.}, }
@article {pmid17851474, year = {2007}, author = {}, title = {Meeting obligations. Climate change should take ever-increasing priority in the Asia-Pacific region.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {449}, number = {7159}, pages = {115-116}, doi = {10.1038/449115b}, pmid = {17851474}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid17851217, year = {2007}, author = {de Graaf, RE and van de Giesen, NC and van de Ven, FH}, title = {The closed city as a strategy to reduce vulnerability of urban areas for climate change.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {165-173}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2007.548}, pmid = {17851217}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Fresh Water ; Humans ; Netherlands ; *Urbanization ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Urbanization, land subsidence and sea level rise will increase vulnerability to droughts in the urbanized low-lying areas in the western part of the Netherlands. In this paper a possibility is explored to decrease vulnerability of urban areas by implementing an alternative water supply option. A four component vulnerability framework is presented that includes threshold capacity, coping capacity, recovery capacity and adaptive capacity. By using the vulnerability framework it is elaborated that current water supply strategies in the Netherlands mainly focus on increasing threshold capacity by constructing improved water storage and delivery infrastructure. A complete vulnerability decreasing strategy requires measures that include all four components. Adaptive capacity can be developed by starting experiments with new modes of water supply. A concept which is symbolically called 'the closed city' uses local urban rainfall as the only source of water supply. The 'closed city' can decrease the water dependence of urban areas on (1) the surrounding rural areas that are diminishing in size and that are increasingly under strain and (2) river water resources that will probably be less constant and reliable as a result of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid17851216, year = {2007}, author = {Janse, T and Wiers, P}, title = {The climate footprint: a practical tool to address climate change.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {157-163}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2007.547}, pmid = {17851216}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Ecosystem ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Netherlands ; Sewage ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Waternet supplies clean and safe drinking water to the homes of almost one million Amsterdam citizens, and also collects and treats the resulting wastewater, ensuring its safe discharge back into the water system. Climate change poses a growing challenge. Firstly Waternet is affected by the consequences of climate change, such as longer periods of drought and heavier bursts of rainfall. Secondly, the company also plays a role in causing climate change, as emissions from the Amsterdam water chain contribute to global warming. This paper aims to focus attention on mitigation as an inseparable part of adaptation-programmes. The Climate Footprint methodology is applied to the integrated Amsterdam water chain: from the point of withdrawing water from the surface/groundwater water system for drinking water production, to the point of returning the purified wastewater to the surface water/groundwater system. In-between, the water is pre-treated with chemicals, transported, purified by dune-filtration, again treated for drinking water quality, distributed over the area of Amsterdam, used in households and industries, collected from there by sewers and pumps, transported to purification plants and finally again treated with chemicals and purified to end with acceptable surface water quality. The whole process generates CO(2)-emissions in three different ways: * Sewage treatment transforms the remains of human food consumption into CO(2). These emissions do not originate from fossil fuels, but from food. They remain in a short carbon cycle and do not contribute to global warming. In fact, the sludge remaining from the purification plant is an important energy source. * Transport and purification processes require energy; this results in direct emissions e.g. in the case of fuel or natural gas use, and indirect emissions in the case of electricity. * The use of chemicals and materials for construction, transport systems, and all other facilities and services to keep the system running does require suppliers of these goods and services to consume energy and thus causes indirect emission. An inventory of these three different types of emissions is made for the (about) 1990 situation, the 2004 situation, and prognosticated for the 2007 situation. The 2004 situation reveals a 0.16 ton CO(2) equivalent emission per person. Compared to the worldwide 4 ton emission per person, this would mean a 4% contribution from the urban water system. With all the improvements scheduled, a 50% elimination of greenhouse gas emissions looks attainable for the 2007 situation. Further possibilities for emission reductions may be found by talking to suppliers about the indirect emissions.}, }
@article {pmid17851214, year = {2007}, author = {Meuleman, AF and Cirkel, G and Zwolsman, GJ}, title = {When climate change is a fact! Adaptive strategies for drinking water production in a changing natural environment.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {137-144}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2007.545}, pmid = {17851214}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Disaster Planning/methods ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Water Supply/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, abstract = {Climate change increases water system dynamics through temperature changes, changes in precipitation patterns, evaporation, and water quality and water storage in ice packs. Water system dependent economical stakeholders, such as drinking water companies in the Netherlands, have to cope with consequences of climate change, e.g. floods and water shortages in river systems, upcoming of brackish ground water, salt water intrusion, increasing peak demands and microbiological activity due to temperature rise. In the past decades, however, both water systems and drinking water production have become more and more inflexible; water systems have been heavily regulated aiming at maximum security and economic functions and the drinking water supply in the Netherlands has grown into an inflexible, but cheap and reliable, system. At a water catchment scale, flexibility and adaptation are solutions to overcome climate change related consequences. Flexible adaptive strategies for drinking water production comprise new sources for drinking water production, application of storage concepts in the short term, and a redesign of large centralized systems, including flexible treatment plants, in the long term. Transition to flexible concepts will take decades because investment depreciation periods of assets are long. These strategies must be based on thorough knowledge of current assets to seize opportunities for change.}, }
@article {pmid17851207, year = {2007}, author = {de Boer, J}, title = {Framing climate change and spatial planning: how risk communication can be improved.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {71-78}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2007.538}, pmid = {17851207}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communication ; Disaster Planning/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods ; Disasters ; Europe ; Humans ; Policy Making ; Risk Management/methods ; }, abstract = {Taking the role of frames into account may significantly add to the tools that have been developed for communication and learning on complex risks and benefits. As part of a larger multidisciplinary study into climate-related forms of sense-making this paper explores which frames are used by the citizens of Western European countries and, in particular, the Netherlands. Three recent multi-national public opinion surveys were analysed to examine beliefs about climate change in the context of beliefs about energy technology and concerns about other environmental issues, such as natural disasters. It appeared that many citizens had only vague ideas about the energy situation and that these do not constitute an unequivocal frame for climate issues. In contrast, the results suggest that the long-lasting rainfall and severe floods in Central Europe have had a significant impact. Climate change was often framed in a way that articulates its associations with rain- and river-based problems. This result is extremely important for risk communication, because especially in the Netherlands with its vulnerable coastal zones climate change may produce many more consequences than rain- and river-based problems only.}, }
@article {pmid17851205, year = {2007}, author = {Chang, H and Franczyk, J and Im, ES and Kwon, WT and Bae, DH and Jung, IW}, title = {Vulnerability of Korean water resources to climate change and population growth.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {57-62}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2007.536}, pmid = {17851205}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Fresh Water/analysis ; Humans ; Korea ; Models, Theoretical ; *Population Growth ; Rain ; Temperature ; Water Supply/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Freshwater availability is affected by changes in climate and growth. We assessed the freshwater vulnerability for five major Korean river basins for 2015 and 2030. We used a regional climate model based on the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, US Geological Survey's Precipitation Rainfall Simulation Model, and population and industrial growth scenarios for impact assessment. The model simulation results suggest increasing spatial and temporal variations of water stress for the basins that are already developed. While freshwater is more vulnerable to growth scenarios than the climate change scenario, climate change alone could decrease mean annual runoff by 10% in four major river basins by 2030. As the first national assessment of climate change, we suggest possible adaptive water resource management and policy strategies for reducing climate related risks in Korea.}, }
@article {pmid17851204, year = {2007}, author = {Zwolsman, JJ and van Bokhoven, AJ}, title = {Impact of summer droughts on water quality of the Rhine River - a preview of climate change?.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {45-55}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2007.535}, pmid = {17851204}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Disasters ; Ecosystem ; Fresh Water/analysis ; Netherlands ; *Rivers ; Water Pollution/analysis ; }, abstract = {It is generally recognized that climate change will affect the discharge regime of the Rhine River. Especially the anticipated increase in extreme river discharges (floods and droughts) poses serious problems to water management, both with regard to water quantity and water quality. Water quality effects of climate change are not sufficiently recognized, however. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of droughts on the water quality of the River Rhine. Time series of river flow and water quality were analyzed for station Lobith, located at the Dutch-German border. Over the past three decades, three major droughts were identified, occurring in the years 1976, 1991, and 2003. The water quality during these dry years was compared with the water quality in reference years, characterized by average hydrological conditions and similar chemical pollution. Four groups of water quality parameters were investigated: 1, general variables (water temperature, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a); 2, major ions (chloride, sodium, sulfate, fluoride, bromide); 3, nutrients; and 4, heavy metals. It was found that water quality is negatively influenced by (summer) droughts, with respect to water temperature, eutrophication, major ions and heavy metals. Effects on nutrient concentrations were small for ammonium and could not be demonstrated for nitrate, nitrite and phosphate. The decline in water quality during summer droughts is both related to the high water temperatures and to low river discharges (limited dilution of the chemical load from point sources). Moreover, the impact of the 1976 drought on water quality was far more important than that of the 2003 drought, indicating that the impact of droughts on water quality will be greater when the water quality is already poor.}, }
@article {pmid17851203, year = {2007}, author = {Hennegriff, W}, title = {Climate change and floods - findings and adaptation strategies for flood protection in Baden-Württemberg.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {35-44}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2007.534}, pmid = {17851203}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate ; Disaster Planning/*methods ; *Disasters ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Germany ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The climatic conditions in Southern Germany have changed noticeably in the 20th century, especially during the last three decades. Both in specific regions and interannually, the trends found exceed the natural margins of deviation previously known from long measurement series for some measured quantities. The mean and also the extreme floods are expected to increase significantly, although the results of the model chain global model-regional climate models-water balance models are still uncertain. As a precaution an adaptation strategy has been developed for the field of flood protection which takes into consideration the possible development for the next decades and also takes into account the uncertainties.}, }
@article {pmid17851202, year = {2007}, author = {van den Hurk, B and Tank, AK and Lenderink, G and Ulden, Av and Oldenborgh, GJ and Katsman, C and Brink, Hv and Keller, F and Bessembinder, J and Burgers, G and Komen, G and Hazeleger, W and Drijfhout, S}, title = {New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {27-33}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2007.533}, pmid = {17851202}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Models, Theoretical ; Netherlands ; Seawater ; Temperature ; Wind ; }, abstract = {A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.}, }
@article {pmid17851201, year = {2007}, author = {Heerdt, GN and Schep, SA and Janse, JH and Ouboter, M}, title = {Climate change and the EU Water Framework Directive: how to deal with indirect effects of changes in hydrology on water quality and ecology?.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {56}, number = {4}, pages = {19-26}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2007.532}, pmid = {17851201}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Ecology ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; European Union ; Fresh Water/analysis ; }, abstract = {In order to set ecological goals and determine measures for the European Water Framework Directive, the effects of climate change on lake ecosystems should be estimated. It is thought that the complexity of lake ecosystems makes this effect inherently unpredictable. However, models that deal with this complexity are available and well calibrated and tested. In this study we use the ecosystem model PCLake to demonstrate how climate change might affect the ecological status of a shallow peaty lake in 2050. With the model PCLake, combined with a long-term water and nutrient balance, it is possible to describe adequately the present status of the lake. Simulations of future scenarios with increasing precipitation, evaporation and temperature, showed that climate change will lead to higher nutrient loadings. At the same time, it will lead to lower critical loadings. Together this might cause the lake to shift easier from a clear water to a turbid state. The amount of algae, expressed as the concentration Chl-a, will increase, as a consequence turbidity will increase. The outcome of this study; increasing stability of the turbid state of the lake, and thus the need for more drastic measures, is consistent with some earlier studies.}, }
@article {pmid17850269, year = {2008}, author = {Bradshaw, WE and Holzapfel, CM}, title = {Genetic response to rapid climate change: it's seasonal timing that matters.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {157-166}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03509.x}, pmid = {17850269}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate ; Culicidae/genetics ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Passeriformes/genetics ; *Photoperiod ; *Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The primary nonbiological result of recent rapid climate change is warming winter temperatures, particularly at northern latitudes, leading to longer growing seasons and new seasonal exigencies and opportunities. Biological responses reflect selection due to the earlier arrival of spring, the later arrival of fall, or the increasing length of the growing season. Animals from rotifers to rodents use the high reliability of day length to time the seasonal transitions in their life histories that are crucial to fitness in temperate and polar environments: when to begin developing in the spring, when to reproduce, when to enter dormancy or when to migrate, thereby exploiting favourable temperatures and avoiding unfavourable temperatures. In documented cases of evolutionary (genetic) response to recent, rapid climate change, the role of day length (photoperiodism) ranges from causal to inhibitory; in no case has there been demonstrated a genetic shift in thermal optima or thermal tolerance. More effort should be made to explore the role of photoperiodism in genetic responses to climate change and to rule out the role of photoperiod in the timing of seasonal life histories before thermal adaptation is assumed to be the major evolutionary response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid17844887, year = {2007}, author = {Moore, A}, title = {Climate change. NHS heeds the global warning.}, journal = {The Health service journal}, volume = {117}, number = {6062}, pages = {26-27}, pmid = {17844887}, issn = {0952-2271}, mesh = {Air Conditioning ; Environmental Health/methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hospitals, Public/economics/*organization &amp; administration ; State Medicine/*organization &amp; administration ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid17840575, year = {2000}, author = {Dahl-Jensen, D}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE: Enhanced: The Greenland Ice Sheet Reacts.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {289}, number = {5478}, pages = {404-405}, doi = {10.1126/science.289.5478.404}, pmid = {17840575}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {The Greenland Ice Sheet holds a substantial part of Earth's fresh water, and melting of the sheet contributes to sea level rise. Dahl-Jensen discusses the reports by Krabill et al. and Thomas et al., which shed light on short- and long-term surface elevation changes of the ice sheet. Low-altitude areas are melting, but high-altitude areas show no net reduction over both the short and the long term.}, }
@article {pmid17835111, year = {2000}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {The Sun Again Intrudes on Earth's Decadal Climate Change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {288}, number = {5473}, pages = {1986}, doi = {10.1126/science.288.5473.1986}, pmid = {17835111}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Researchers have long doubted that solar cycles affect terrestrial climate, because no one has yet come up with a convincing mechanism to explain how tiny changes on the sun might change climate on Earth. Now, however, two such correlations--a 22-year climate cycle recorded in glacial sediments and the tracing of an 11-year cycle from the stratosphere into the lower atmosphere--may be robust enough to give the sun-climate link a touch more respectability.}, }
@article {pmid17822065, year = {2007}, author = {Fairlie, I}, title = {Global warming: is nuclear power the answer?.}, journal = {Medicine, conflict, and survival}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {228-233}, doi = {10.1080/13623690701417360}, pmid = {17822065}, issn = {1362-3699}, mesh = {Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Power Plants ; *Public Opinion ; *Public Policy ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid17787235, year = {2000}, author = {Fung, I}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE: Variable Carbon Sinks.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {290}, number = {5495}, pages = {1313}, doi = {10.1126/science.290.5495.1313}, pmid = {17787235}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Over half of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere is partially absorbed by carbon sinks. As Fung explains in this Perspective, determining the location and magnitude of these sinks remains a major challenge. Bousquet et al. find that regional and global terrestrial carbon sinks are much more variable than their oceanic counterparts and that the tropical land masses may play a major role. Given that the land sink is so variable, it is uncertain how it will repond to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid17784923, year = {2008}, author = {Zakharov, EV and Hellmann, JJ}, title = {Genetic differentiation across a latitudinal gradient in two co-occurring butterfly species: revealing population differences in a context of climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {189-208}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03488.x}, pmid = {17784923}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Animals ; Base Sequence ; Bayes Theorem ; Body Size ; British Columbia ; Butterflies/*genetics ; *Climate ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; *Demography ; Gene Flow ; *Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Genotype ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Models, Genetic ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Pacific States ; Sequence Alignment ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Genetic differentiation within a species' range is determined by natural selection, genetic drift, and gene flow. Selection and drift enhance genetic differences if populations are sufficiently isolated, while gene flow precludes differentiation and local adaptation. Over large geographical areas, these processes can create a variety of scenarios, ranging from admixture to a high degree of population differentiation. Genetic differences among populations may signal functional differences within a species' range, potentially leading to population or ecotype-specific responses to global change. We investigated differentiation within the geographical range of two butterfly species along a broad latitudinal gradient. This gradient is the primary axis of climatic variation, and many ecologists expect populations at the poleward edge of this gradient to expand under climate change. Our study species inhabit a shared ecosystem and differ in body size and resource specialization; both also find their poleward range limit on an island. We find evidence for divergence of peripheral populations from the core in both taxa, suggesting the potential for genetic distinctiveness at the leading edge of climate change. We also find differences between the species in the extent of peripheral differentiation with the smaller and more specialized species showing greater population divergence (microsatellites and mtDNA) and reduced gene flow (mtDNA). Finally, gene flow estimates in both species differed strongly between two marker types. These findings suggest caution in assuming that populations are invariant across latitude and thus will respond as a single ecotype to climatic change.}, }
@article {pmid17766907, year = {2007}, author = {Stott, R}, title = {Climate change, poverty and war.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine}, volume = {100}, number = {9}, pages = {399-402}, doi = {10.1177/014107680710000911}, pmid = {17766907}, issn = {0141-0768}, mesh = {Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Poverty ; Professional Practice ; *Warfare ; }, }
@article {pmid17761856, year = {2007}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Judge orders more timely U.S. reports.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5842}, pages = {1158}, doi = {10.1126/science.317.5842.1158a}, pmid = {17761856}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17750404, year = {2000}, author = {Mann, ME}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE: Lessons for a New Millennium.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {289}, number = {5477}, pages = {253-254}, doi = {10.1126/science.289.5477.253}, pmid = {17750404}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {The climate changes believed to have occurred before this century have remained enigmatic, hampering our understanding of today's climatic changes. Reseachers trying to assess the human influence on the warming of the past century have commonly used complex ocean atmosphere models, but these models have their drawbacks. In his Perspective, Mann discusses a research article by Crowley, who has used a simple model driven by the most important natural and human-induced climate forcings to simulate climatic change over the last millennium. Comparing the model results with observations, Crowley makes what may be the most compelling case to date for the assertion that anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases are behind the dramatic continued warming of the globe.}, }
@article {pmid17743257, year = {2000}, author = {Smith, SJ and Wigley, TM and Edmonds, J}, title = {CLIMATE: A New Route Toward Limiting Climate Change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {290}, number = {5494}, pages = {1109-1110}, doi = {10.1126/science.290.5494.1109}, pmid = {17743257}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Climate change mitigation strategies have focused on reductions in carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases. Smith et al., investigate the viability of a different strategy, recently proposed by Hansen et al., which focuses on controlling short-lived pollutants such as soot and tropospheric ozone. They conclude that carbon dioxide must remain the primary focus of climate change mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid17733050, year = {2000}, author = {Zwiers, FW and Weaver, AJ}, title = {CLIMATE CHANGE: The Causes of 20th Century Warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {290}, number = {5499}, pages = {2081-2083}, doi = {10.1126/science.290.5499.2081}, pmid = {17733050}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Global air surface temperatures increased by about 0.6 degrees C during the 20th century, but as Zwiers and Weaver discuss in their Perspective, the warming was not continuous. Two distinct periods of warming, from 1910 to 1945 and since 1976, were separated by a period of very gradual cooling. The authors highlight the work by Stott et al., who have performed the most comprehensive simulation of 20th century climate to date. The agreement between observed and simulated temperature variations strongly suggests that forcing from anthropogenic activities, moderated by variations in solar and volcanic forcing, has been the main driver of climate change during the past century.}, }
@article {pmid17726169, year = {2007}, author = {Thurston, G}, title = {Air pollution, human health, climate change and you.}, journal = {Thorax}, volume = {62}, number = {9}, pages = {748-749}, pmid = {17726169}, issn = {0040-6376}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects/*prevention &amp; control ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The “co‐benefits” of reducing air pollution on climate change and human health}, }
@article {pmid17726167, year = {2007}, author = {Woodcock, A}, title = {Moulds and asthma: time for indoor climate change?.}, journal = {Thorax}, volume = {62}, number = {9}, pages = {745-746}, pmid = {17726167}, issn = {0040-6376}, mesh = {Air Conditioning ; Air Pollution, Indoor/prevention &amp; control ; Asthma/*prevention &amp; control ; *Fungi ; Housing/*standards ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Effect of controlling mould in houses on respiratory health}, }
@article {pmid17720226, year = {2007}, author = {Sonne, C and Dietz, R and Born, EW and Riget, FF and Leifsson, PS and Bechshøft, T&#xd8; and Kirkegaard, M}, title = {Spatial and temporal variation in size of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sexual organs and its use in pollution and climate change studies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {387}, number = {1-3}, pages = {237-246}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.07.020}, pmid = {17720226}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; Climate ; Environmental Pollution ; Female ; Genitalia, Female/*anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development ; Genitalia, Male/*anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development ; Greenland ; Male ; Sexual Maturation ; Svalbard ; Time Factors ; Ursidae/*anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Sexual organs and their development are susceptible to atmospheric transported environmental xenoendocrine pollutants and climate change (food availability). We therefore investigated sexual organs from 55 male and 44 female East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to obtain information about growth/size and sexual maturity. Then, the genitalia size was compared with those previously reported from Canadian and Svalbard polar bears. Growth models showed that East Greenland male polar bears reached sexual maturity around 7 years of age and females around 4 years of age. When comparing East Greenland and Svalbard polar bears, the size of baculum and uterus were significantly lower in the East Greenland polar bears (ANOVA: all p < 0.05). Based on previously published baculum mean values from Canadian polar bears, a similar baculum pattern was found for East Greenland vs. Canadian polar bears. It is speculated whether this could be a result of the general high variation in polar bear body size, temporal distribution patterns of anthropogenic long-range transported persistent organic pollutants or climate change (decreasing food availability). The present investigation represents conservation and background data for future spatial and temporal assessments of hunting, pollution and climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid17717365, year = {2007}, author = {Richards, T}, title = {The hitch hiker's guide to population growth and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {335}, number = {7616}, pages = {374}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.39311.494676.59}, pmid = {17717365}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Developing Countries ; Family Planning Services ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Education ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; Pregnancy ; Pregnancy, Unwanted ; Women's Health ; }, abstract = {Educating and empowering young girls in poor countries is part of the solution}, }
@article {pmid17711818, year = {2008}, author = {Evans, N and Baierl, A and Semenov, MA and Gladders, P and Fitt, BD}, title = {Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society, Interface}, volume = {5}, number = {22}, pages = {525-531}, pmid = {17711818}, issn = {1742-5689}, support = {//Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Ascomycota/physiology ; Brassica rapa/microbiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; *Models, Biological ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Reproducibility of Results ; Time Factors ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects plants in natural and agricultural ecosystems throughout the world but little work has been done on the effects of climate change on plant disease epidemics. To illustrate such effects, a weather-based disease forecasting model was combined with a climate change model predicting UK temperature and rainfall under high- and low-carbon emissions for the 2020s and 2050s. Multi-site data collected over a 15-year period were used to develop and validate a weather-based model forecasting severity of phoma stem canker epidemics on oilseed rape across the UK. This was combined with climate change scenarios to predict that epidemics will not only increase in severity but also spread northwards by the 2020s. These results provide a stimulus to develop models to predict the effects of climate change on other plant diseases, especially in delicately balanced agricultural or natural ecosystems. Such predictions can be used to guide policy and practice in adapting to effects of climate change on food security and wildlife.}, }
@article {pmid17711816, year = {2007}, author = {Bernardo, J and Ossola, RJ and Spotila, J and Crandall, KA}, title = {Interspecies physiological variation as a tool for cross-species assessments of global warming-induced endangerment: validation of an intrinsic determinant of macroecological and phylogeographic structure.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {3}, number = {6}, pages = {695-698}, pmid = {17711816}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Basal Metabolism ; Biodiversity ; Body Size ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Phylogeny ; Species Specificity ; Urodela/anatomy &amp; histology/classification/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Global warming is now recognized as the dominant threat to biodiversity because even protected populations and habitats are susceptible. Nonetheless, current criteria for evaluating species' relative endangerment remain purely ecological, and the accepted conservation strategies of habitat preservation and population management assume that species can mount ecological responses if afforded protection. The insidious threat from climate change is that it will attenuate or preclude ecological responses by species that are physiologically constrained; yet, quantitative, objective criteria for assessing relative susceptibility of diverse taxa to warming-induced stress are wanting. We explored the utility of using interspecies physiological variation for this purpose by relating species' physiological phenotypes to landscape patterns of ecological and genetic exchange. Using a salamander model system in which ecological, genetic and physiological diversity are well characterized, we found strong quantitative relationships of basal metabolic rates (BMRs) to both macroecological and phylogeographic patterns, with decreasing BMR leading to dispersal limitation (small contemporary ranges with marked phylogeographic structure). Measures of intrinsic physiological tolerance, which vary systematically with macroecological and phylogeographic patterns, afford objective criteria for assessing endangerment across a wide range of species and should be incorporated into conservation assessment criteria that currently rely exclusively upon ecological predictors.}, }
@article {pmid17711008, year = {2007}, author = {Göncü, S and Albek, E}, title = {Modeling the effects of climate change on different land uses.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {56}, number = {1}, pages = {131-138}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2007.444}, pmid = {17711008}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Computer Simulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; *Soil ; Temperature ; Trees ; Turkey ; Water Movements ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This study deals with the effects of the expected climate change on the hydrology of watersheds. The watershed response in terms of the water produced by the watershed has been modeled using HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN) for a time period which encompasses the first half of the twenty-first century. Climate change scenarios have been prepared based on trends expected in western Turkey and a hypothetical watershed with different land uses has been simulated. The trends have been extracted from the results of a general circulation model. The simulations have revealed that watersheds with no vegetative cover will respond to the trends in temperature and precipitation more rigorously than vegetated watersheds. Pasture or watersheds with deciduous or coniferous forests respond less to climate change due to the buffering mechanism of the vegetative cover and also due to the large quantities of water they transpire. It has also been found that monthly variations are important in predicting the future response of watersheds. While changes might seem small on a yearly scale, there are large differences in response among seasons.}, }
@article {pmid17708153, year = {2007}, author = {Olwoch, JM and Van Jaarsveld, AS and Scholtz, CH and Horak, IG}, title = {Climate change and the genus Rhipicephalus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Africa.}, journal = {The Onderstepoort journal of veterinary research}, volume = {74}, number = {1}, pages = {45-72}, doi = {10.4102/ojvr.v74i1.139}, pmid = {17708153}, issn = {0030-2465}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; Animals ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Male ; *Models, Biological ; Population Density ; Population Growth ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Rhipicephalus/*growth &amp; development ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Tick-Borne Diseases/epidemiology/veterinary ; }, abstract = {The suitability of present and future climates for 30 Rhipicephalus species in Africa are predicted using a simple climate envelope model as well as a Division of Atmospheric Research Limited-Area Model (DARLAM). DARLAM's predictions are compared with the mean outcome from two global circulation models. East Africa and South Africa are considered the most vulnerable regions on the continent to climate-induced changes in tick distributions and tick-borne diseases. More than 50% of the species examined show potential range expansion and more than 70% of this range expansion is found in economically important tick species. More than 20% of the species experienced range shifts of between 50 and 100%. There is also an increase in tick species richness in the south-western regions of the sub-continent. Actual range alterations due to climate change may be even greater since factors like land degradation and human population increase have not been included in this modelling process. However, these predictions are also subject to the effect that climate change may have on the hosts of the ticks, particularly those that favour a restricted range of hosts. Where possible, the anticipated biological implications of the predicted changes are explored.}, }
@article {pmid17695881, year = {2007}, author = {Engelhaupt, E}, title = {Models underestimate global warming impacts.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {41}, number = {13}, pages = {4488-4489}, doi = {10.1021/es072562p}, pmid = {17695881}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, }
@article {pmid17695841, year = {2007}, author = {Trenberth, KE}, title = {Warmer oceans, stronger hurricanes. Evidence is mounting that global warming enhances a cyclone's damaging winds and flooding rains.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {297}, number = {1}, pages = {44-51}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0707-44}, pmid = {17695841}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid17690273, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Humans and nature duel over the next decade's climate.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5839}, pages = {746-747}, doi = {10.1126/science.317.5839.746}, pmid = {17690273}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17686928, year = {2007}, author = {Roberts, I and Arnold, E}, title = {Policy at the crossroads: climate change and injury control.}, journal = {Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {222-223}, pmid = {17686928}, issn = {1353-8047}, mesh = {Accidents, Traffic ; Environmental Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Male ; Public Policy ; Wounds and Injuries/*prevention &amp; control ; }, abstract = {Climate change policy presents unprecedented opportunities for injury control}, }
@article {pmid17686728, year = {2007}, author = {Chown, SL and Slabber, S and McGeouch, M and Janion, C and Leinaas, HP}, title = {Phenotypic plasticity mediates climate change responses among invasive and indigenous arthropods.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {274}, number = {1625}, pages = {2531-2537}, pmid = {17686728}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature ; Insecta/*physiology ; Phenotype ; Water/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Synergies between global change and biological invasion have been identified as a major potential threat to global biodiversity and human welfare. The global change-type drought characteristic of many temperate terrestrial ecosystems is especially significant because it will apparently favour invasive over indigenous species, adding to the burden of conservation and compromising ecosystem service delivery. However, the nature of and mechanisms underlying this synergy remain poorly explored. Here we show that in a temperate terrestrial ecosystem, invasive and indigenous springtail species differ in the form of their phenotypic plasticity such that warmer conditions promote survival of desiccation in the invasive species and reduce it in the indigenous ones. These differences are consistent with significant declines in the densities of indigenous species and little change in those of invasive species in a manipulative field experiment that mimicked climate change trends. We suggest that it is not so much the extent of phenotypic plasticity that distinguishes climate change responses among these invasive and indigenous species, as the form that this plasticity takes. Nonetheless, this differential physiological response provides support for the idea that in temperate terrestrial systems experiencing global change-type drought, invasive species may well be at an advantage relative to their indigenous counterparts.}, }
@article {pmid17683557, year = {2007}, author = {Harlin-Cognato, AD and Markowitz, T and Würsig, B and Honeycutt, RL}, title = {Multi-locus phylogeography of the dusky dolphin (Lagenorhynchus obscurus): passive dispersal via the west-wind drift or response to prey species and climate change?.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {131}, pmid = {17683557}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Actins/genetics ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Climate ; Cytochromes b/genetics ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Dolphins/classification/*genetics ; Fishes/genetics ; *Food Chain ; Genetic Variation ; *Geography ; Introns ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Oceans and Seas ; *Phylogeny ; Temperature ; Wind ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The dusky dolphin (Lagenorhynchus obscurus) is distributed along temperate, coastal regions of New Zealand, South Africa, Argentina, and Peru where it feeds on schooling anchovy, sardines, and other small fishes and squid tightly associated with temperate ocean sea surface temperatures. Previous studies have suggested that the dusky dolphin dispersed in the Southern Hemisphere eastward from Peru via a linear, temperate dispersal corridor provided by the circumpolar west-wind drift. With new mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data, we propose an alternative phylogeographic history for the dusky dolphin that was structured by paleoceanographic conditions that repeatedly altered the distribution of its temperate prey species during the Plio-Pleistocene.<br><br>RESULTS: In contrast to the west-wind drift hypothesis, phylogenetic analyses support a Pacific/Indian Ocean origin, with a relatively early and continued isolation of Peru from other regions. Dispersal of the dusky dolphin into the Atlantic is correlated with the history of anchovy populations, including multiple migrations from New Zealand to South Africa. Additionally, the cooling of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific led to the divergence of anchovy populations, which in turn explains the north-south equatorial transgression of L. obliquidens and the subsequent divergence of L. obscurus in the Southern Hemisphere.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Overall, our study fails to support the west-wind drift hypothesis. Instead, our data indicate that changes in primary productivity and related abundance of prey played a key role in shaping the phylogeography of the dusky dolphin, with periods of ocean change coincident with important events in the history of this temperate dolphin species. Moderate, short-term changes in sea surface temperatures and current systems have a powerful effect on anchovy populations; thus, it is not infeasible that repeated fluctuations in anchovy populations continue to play an important role in the history of coastal dolphin populations.}, }
@article {pmid17678412, year = {2007}, author = {Verdes, PF}, title = {Global warming is driven by anthropogenic emissions: a time series analysis approach.}, journal = {Physical review letters}, volume = {99}, number = {4}, pages = {048501}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevLett.99.048501}, pmid = {17678412}, issn = {1079-7114}, abstract = {The solar influence on global climate is nonstationary. Processes such as the Schwabe and Gleissberg cycles of the Sun, or the many intrinsic atmospheric oscillation modes, yield a complex pattern of interaction with multiple time scales. In addition, emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols, or volcanic dust perturb the dynamics of this coupled system to different and still uncertain extents. Here we show, using two independent driving force reconstruction techniques, that the combined effect of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions has been the main external driver of global climate during the past decades.}, }
@article {pmid17671497, year = {2007}, author = {Thuiller, W}, title = {Biodiversity: climate change and the ecologist.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {448}, number = {7153}, pages = {550-552}, doi = {10.1038/448550a}, pmid = {17671497}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Conservation of Natural Resources/trends ; Ecology/*trends ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid17671489, year = {2007}, author = {Pilewskie, P}, title = {Climate change: aerosols heat up.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {448}, number = {7153}, pages = {541-542}, doi = {10.1038/448541a}, pmid = {17671489}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid17668123, year = {2007}, author = {Grant, WB and Moan, J and Reichrath, J}, title = {Comment on "the effects on human health from stratospheric ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change" by M. Norval, A. P. Cullen, F. R. de Gruijl, J. Longstreth, Y. Takizawa, R. M. Lucas, F. P. Noonan and J. C. van der Leun, Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2007, 6, 232.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {912-5; discussion 916-8}, doi = {10.1039/b705482c}, pmid = {17668123}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Melanoma/etiology ; Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced/etiology ; Ozone/*analysis ; Virus Diseases/etiology ; }, abstract = {An increase in solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation reaching the earth's surface is an important consequence of stratospheric ozone depletion. UVB has important effects on human health, both beneficial and harmful. Recent research has found that solar UVB reduces the risk of over 20 types of cancer, respiratory diseases caused by viruses, autoimmune diseases, and, likely, several other diseases, in addition to the well-known effects on bone diseases. On the other hand, solar UVB is an important risk factor for non-melanoma skin cancer and cataracts. Human epidemiological studies have provided evidence that solar UVA may be a more important risk factor for melanoma than UVB. If this result is correct, melanoma risk is not related to ozone depletion. We consider the net effect of solar UVB on human health to be beneficial at or near current levels.}, }
@article {pmid17667293, year = {2007}, author = {McCartney, PR}, title = {Climate change and child health.}, journal = {MCN. The American journal of maternal child nursing}, volume = {32}, number = {4}, pages = {255}, doi = {10.1097/01.NMC.0000281968.30658.4f}, pmid = {17667293}, issn = {0361-929X}, mesh = {Child ; Child Welfare/*trends ; Environmental Health/*organization &amp; administration ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Internet ; *Nurse's Role ; Parents/education ; Pediatric Nursing/education/organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid17666388, year = {2007}, author = {Corfee-Morlot, J and Maslin, M and Burgess, J}, title = {Global warming in the public sphere.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1860}, pages = {2741-2776}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2007.2084}, pmid = {17666388}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {Although the science of global warming has been in place for several decades if not more, only in the last decade and a half has the issue moved clearly into the public sphere as a public policy issue and a political priority. To understand how and why this has occurred, it is essential to consider the history of the scientific theory of the greenhouse effect, the evidence that supports it and the mechanisms through which science interacts with lay publics and other elite actors, such as politicians, policymakers and business decision makers. This article reviews why and how climate change has moved from the bottom to the top of the international political agenda. It traces the scientific discovery of global warming, political and institutional developments to manage it as well as other socially mediated pathways for understanding and promoting global warming as an issue in the public sphere. The article also places this historical overview of global warming as a public issue into a conceptual framework for understanding relationships between society and nature with emphasis on the co-construction of knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid17666387, year = {2007}, author = {Morley, E}, title = {Speech by Elliot Morley at the Climate Change and Urban Areas Conference, University College London, 3 April 2006.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1860}, pages = {2631-2634}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2007.2085}, pmid = {17666387}, issn = {1364-503X}, }
@article {pmid17666384, year = {2007}, author = {Shindell, D}, title = {Estimating the potential for twenty-first century sudden climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1860}, pages = {2675-2694}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2007.2088}, pmid = {17666384}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {I investigate the potential for sudden climate change during the current century. This investigation takes into account evidence from the Earth's history, from climate models and our understanding of the physical processes governing climate shifts. Sudden alterations to climate forcing seem to be improbable, with sudden changes instead most likely to arise from climate feedbacks. Based on projections from models validated against historical events, dramatic changes in ocean circulation appear unlikely. Ecosystem-climate feedbacks clearly have the potential to induce sudden change, but are relatively poorly understood at present. More probable sudden changes are large increases in the frequency of summer heatwaves and changes resulting from feedbacks involving hydrology. These include ice sheet decay, which may be set in motion this century. The most devastating consequences are likely to occur further in the future, however. Reductions in subtropical precipitation are likely to be the most severe hydrologic effects this century, with rapid changes due to the feedbacks of relatively well-understood large-scale circulation patterns. Water stress may become particularly acute in the Southwest US and Mexico, and in the Mediterranean and Middle East, where rainfall decreases of 10-25% (regionally) and up to 40% (locally) are projected.}, }
@article {pmid17666383, year = {2007}, author = {Hunt, JC and Maslin, M and Killeen, T and Backlund, P and Schellnhuber, HJ}, title = {Introduction. Climate change and urban areas: research dialogue in a policy framework.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1860}, pages = {2615-2629}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2007.2089}, pmid = {17666383}, issn = {1364-503X}, }
@article {pmid17666376, year = {2007}, author = {Gerlach, J}, title = {Short-term climate change and the extinction of the snail Rhachistia aldabrae (Gastropoda: Pulmonata).}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {581-584}, pmid = {17666376}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Extinction, Biological ; Probability ; Rain ; *Snails ; }, abstract = {The only known population of the Aldabra banded snail Rhachistia aldabrae declined through the late twentieth century, leading to its extinction in the late 1990s. This occurred within a stable habitat and its extinction is attributable to decreasing rainfall on Aldabra atoll, associated with regional changes in rainfall patterns in the late twentieth and early twenty-first century. It is proposed that the extinction of this species is a direct result of decreasing rainfall leading to increased mortality of juvenile snails.}, }
@article {pmid17665648, year = {2007}, author = {Golubiatnikov, LL and Denisenko, EA}, title = {[Model estimates of climate change impact on habitats of zonal vegetation for the plain territories of Russia].}, journal = {Izvestiia Akademii nauk. Seriia biologicheskaia}, volume = {}, number = {2}, pages = {212-228}, pmid = {17665648}, issn = {1026-3470}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; *Plant Development ; Russia ; }, abstract = {Possible changes in the habitats of zonal phytocenoses for the plain territories of Russia under a 1 degrees C increase in the annual mean global surface temperature are estimated by simulation with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 and the intermediate-complexity climate model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics for anthropogenic scenarios of greenhouse gas changes. The response of the phytocenotic habitats to possible climate changes is estimated from the changes in net primary production for the considered climatic scenarios. The obtained data allowed us to recognize the zonal phytocenoses most sensitive to climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid17665057, year = {2007}, author = {Santos, Ude P}, title = {[Pollution, global warming and impact on health].}, journal = {Revista da Associacao Medica Brasileira (1992)}, volume = {53}, number = {3}, pages = {193-194}, doi = {10.1590/s0104-42302007000300004}, pmid = {17665057}, issn = {0104-4230}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; *Environmental Pollutants ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid17663223, year = {2007}, author = {Sachs, JD}, title = {Climate change refugees.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {296}, number = {6}, pages = {43}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0607-43}, pmid = {17663223}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {*Disasters ; *Emigration and Immigration ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Water ; }, }
@article {pmid17653194, year = {2007}, author = {Sitch, S and Cox, PM and Collins, WJ and Huntingford, C}, title = {Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {448}, number = {7155}, pages = {791-794}, doi = {10.1038/nature06059}, pmid = {17653194}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ozone/analysis/*pharmacology/toxicity ; Photosynthesis/drug effects ; Plant Development ; Plant Epidermis/cytology/drug effects/metabolism ; Plants/*drug effects/metabolism ; Switzerland ; }, abstract = {The evolution of the Earth's climate over the twenty-first century depends on the rate at which anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are removed from the atmosphere by the ocean and land carbon cycles. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models suggest that global warming will act to limit the land-carbon sink, but these first generation models neglected the impacts of changing atmospheric chemistry. Emissions associated with fossil fuel and biomass burning have acted to approximately double the global mean tropospheric ozone concentration, and further increases are expected over the twenty-first century. Tropospheric ozone is known to damage plants, reducing plant primary productivity and crop yields, yet increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are thought to stimulate plant primary productivity. Increased carbon dioxide and ozone levels can both lead to stomatal closure, which reduces the uptake of either gas, and in turn limits the damaging effect of ozone and the carbon dioxide fertilization of photosynthesis. Here we estimate the impact of projected changes in ozone levels on the land-carbon sink, using a global land carbon cycle model modified to include the effect of ozone deposition on photosynthesis and to account for interactions between ozone and carbon dioxide through stomatal closure. For a range of sensitivity parameters based on manipulative field experiments, we find a significant suppression of the global land-carbon sink as increases in ozone concentrations affect plant productivity. In consequence, more carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere. We suggest that the resulting indirect radiative forcing by ozone effects on plants could contribute more to global warming than the direct radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone increases.}, }
@article {pmid17650258, year = {2007}, author = {Carroll, C}, title = {Interacting effects of climate change, landscape conversion, and harvest on carnivore populations at the range margin: marten and lynx in the northern Appalachians.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {1092-1104}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00719.x}, pmid = {17650258}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {Animals ; Appalachian Region ; Canada ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Demography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Lynx/*physiology ; Mustelidae/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Assessing the effects of climate change on threatened species requires moving beyond simple bioclimatic models to models that incorporate interactions among climatic trends, landscape change, environmental stochasticity, and species life history. Populations of marten (Martes americana) and lynx (Lynx canadensis) in southeastern Canada and the northeastern United States represent peninsular extensions of boreal ranges and illustrate the potential impact of these threats on semi-isolated populations at the range margin. Decreased snowfall may affect marten and lynx through decreased prey vulnerability and decreased competitive advantage over sympatric carnivores. I used a spatially explicit population model to assess potential effects of predicted changes in snowfall by 2055 on regional marten and lynx populations. The models' habitat rankings were derived from previous static models that correlated regional distribution with snowfall and vegetation data. Trapping scenarios were parameterized as a 10% proportional decrease in survival, and logging scenarios were parameterized as a 10% decrease in the extent of older coniferous or mixed forest. Both species showed stronger declines in the simulations due to climate change than to overexploitation or logging. Marten populations declined 40% because of climate change, 16% because of logging, and 30% because of trapping. Lynx populations declined 59% because of climate change, 36% because of trapping, and 20% in scenarios evaluating the effects of population cycles. Climate change interacted with logging in its effects on the marten and with trapping in its effects on the lynx, increasing overall vulnerability. For both species larger lowland populations were vulnerable to climate change, which suggests that contraction may occur in the core of their current regional range as well as among smaller peripheral populations. Despite their greater data requirements compared with bioclimatic models, mesoscale spatial viability models are important tools for generating more biologically realistic hypotheses regarding biotic response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid17650241, year = {2007}, author = {Hart, G}, title = {U.S. Security: the nexus of oil importation and climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {915}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00738.x}, pmid = {17650241}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Conservation of Energy Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Marketing ; Middle East ; Petroleum/*economics ; Politics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid17650240, year = {2007}, author = {Speth, JG}, title = {All for one: the immediacy of fighting climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {914}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00739.x}, pmid = {17650240}, issn = {1523-1739}, mesh = {*Conservation of Energy Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Politics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid17647302, year = {2007}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {Climate change worries deepens.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {17}, number = {12}, pages = {R435-36}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2007.05.042}, pmid = {17647302}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Greenland ; Humans ; *Ice Cover ; Seasons ; *Travel ; }, }
@article {pmid17641168, year = {2007}, author = {Challen, C}, title = {Playing climate change poker.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5836}, pages = {295}, doi = {10.1126/science.1146513}, pmid = {17641168}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17637830, year = {2007}, author = {Teske, PR and Papadopoulos, I and McQuaid, CD and Newman, BK and Barker, NP}, title = {Climate change, genetics or human choice: why were the shells of mankind's earliest ornament larger in the pleistocene than in the holocene?.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {2}, number = {7}, pages = {e614}, pmid = {17637830}, issn = {1932-6203}, mesh = {Animal Structures/chemistry ; Animals ; *Choice Behavior ; Consensus Sequence ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; DNA, Ribosomal/genetics ; Electron Transport Complex IV/genetics ; Fossils ; Geography ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; Jewelry/*history ; Mitochondria/enzymology ; RNA, Ribosomal, 16S/genetics ; Seawater ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The southern African tick shell, Nassarius kraussianus (Dunker, 1846), has been identified as being the earliest known ornamental object used by human beings. Shell beads dated from approximately 75,000 years ago (Pleistocene era) were found in a cave located on South Africa's south coast. Beads made from N. kraussianus shells have also been found in deposits in this region dating from the beginning of the Holocene era (<10,000 years ago). These younger shells were significantly smaller, a phenomenon that has been attributed to a change in human preference.<br><br>We investigated two alternative hypotheses explaining the difference in shell size: a) N. kraussianus comprises at least two genetic lineages that differ in size; b) the difference in shell size is due to phenotypic plasticity and is a function of environmental conditions. To test these hypotheses, we first reconstructed the species' phylogeographic history, and second, we measured the shell sizes of extant individuals throughout South Africa. Although two genetic lineages were identified, the sharing of haplotypes between these suggests that there is no genetic basis for the size differences. Extant individuals from the cool temperate west coast had significantly larger shells than populations in the remainder of the country, suggesting that N. kraussianus grows to a larger size in colder water.<br><br>CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The decrease in fossil shell size from Pleistocene to Holocene was likely due to increased temperatures as a result of climate change at the beginning of the present interglacial period. We hypothesise that the sizes of N. kraussianus fossil shells can therefore serve as indicators of the climatic conditions that were prevalent in a particular region at the time when they were deposited. Moreover, N. kraussianus could serve as a biomonitor to study the impacts of future climate change on coastal biota in southern Africa.}, }
@article {pmid17636293, year = {2007}, author = {Niemistö, JP and Horppila, J}, title = {The contribution of ice cover to sediment resuspension in a shallow temperate lake: possible effects of climate change on internal nutrient loading.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {36}, number = {5}, pages = {1318-1323}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2006.0487}, pmid = {17636293}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Biodegradation, Environmental ; *Climate ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Geologic Sediments/*analysis ; *Ice Cover ; Particle Size ; Phosphorus/analysis/chemistry ; Solubility ; }, abstract = {The effect of ice cover on sediment resuspension and internal total P (Tot-P) loading was studied in the northern temperate Kirkkojärvi basin in Finland. The gross sedimentation and resuspension rates were estimated with sediment traps during ice-cover and ice-free periods. After ice break, the average gross sedimentation rate increased from 1.4 to 30.0 g dw m(-2) d(-1). Resuspension calculations showed clearly higher values after ice break as well. Under ice cover, resuspension ranged from 50 to 78% of the gross sedimentation while during the ice-free period it constituted from 87 to 97% of the gross sedimentation. Consequently, the average resuspension rate increased from 1.0 g dw m(-2) d(-1) under ice-cover to 27.0 g dw m(-2) d(-1) after thaw, indicating the strong effect of ice cover on sediment resuspension. To estimate the potential effect of climate change on internal P loading caused by resuspension we compared the Tot-P loading calculations between the present climate and the climate with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration relative to the present day values (ice cover reduced from current 165 to 105 d). The annual load increased from 7.4 to 9.4 g m(-2). In conclusion, the annual internal Tot-P loading caused by resuspension will increase by 28% in the Kirkkojärvi basin if the 2xCO2 climate scenario comes true.}, }
@article {pmid17633040, year = {2005}, author = {Laurila, T and Aurela, M and Lohila, A and Tuovinen, JP}, title = {Trace gas and CO2 contributions of northern peatlands to global warming potential.}, journal = {SEB experimental biology series}, volume = {}, number = {}, pages = {269-292}, pmid = {17633040}, issn = {1946-4959}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Air Pollutants ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Climate ; Cold Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Soil ; *Trace Elements ; Wetlands ; }, }
@article {pmid17631417, year = {2007}, author = {Crabbe, MJ}, title = {Global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effect of temperature on Acropora palmata colony growth.}, journal = {Computational biology and chemistry}, volume = {31}, number = {4}, pages = {294-297}, doi = {10.1016/j.compbiolchem.2007.05.001}, pmid = {17631417}, issn = {1476-9271}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*growth &amp; development ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Data on colony growth of the branching coral Acropora palmata from fringing reefs off Discovery Bay on the north coast of Jamaica have been obtained over the period 2002-2007 using underwater photography and image analysis by both SCUBA and remotely using an ROV incorporating twin lasers. Growth modelling shows that while logarithmic growth is an approximate model for growth, a 3:3 rational polynomial function provides a significantly better fit to growth data for this coral species. Over the period 2002-2007, involving several cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) change, the rate of growth of A. palmata was largely proportional to rate of change of SST, with R(2)=0.935. These results have implications for the influence of global warming and climate change on coral reef ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid17626873, year = {2007}, author = {Cox, P and Stephenson, D}, title = {Climate change. A changing climate for prediction.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5835}, pages = {207-208}, doi = {10.1126/science.1145956}, pmid = {17626873}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17626870, year = {2007}, author = {Stern, N and Taylor, C}, title = {Economics. Climate change: risk, ethics, and the Stern Review.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5835}, pages = {203-204}, doi = {10.1126/science.1142920}, pmid = {17626870}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17626869, year = {2007}, author = {Nordhaus, W}, title = {Economics. Critical assumptions in the Stern Review on climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5835}, pages = {201-202}, doi = {10.1126/science.1137316}, pmid = {17626869}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17626853, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Record U.S. warmth of 2006 was part natural, part greenhouse.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5835}, pages = {182-183}, doi = {10.1126/science.317.5835.182a}, pmid = {17626853}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17623633, year = {2007}, author = {Thompson, P and Ingram, S and Lonergan, M and Northridge, S and Hall, A and Wilson, B}, title = {Climate change causing starvation in harbour porpoises?.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {3}, number = {5}, pages = {533-4; discussion 535-6}, pmid = {17623633}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Diet ; Ecosystem ; *Eels ; Food Chain ; North Sea ; Phocoena/*physiology ; *Starvation ; }, }
@article {pmid17615310, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Another global warming icon comes under attack.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5834}, pages = {28-29}, doi = {10.1126/science.317.5834.28a}, pmid = {17615310}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17601778, year = {2007}, author = {Clarke, JA and Ksepka, DT and Stucchi, M and Urbina, M and Giannini, N and Bertelli, S and Narváez, Y and Boyd, CA}, title = {Paleogene equatorial penguins challenge the proposed relationship between biogeography, diversity, and Cenozoic climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {28}, pages = {11545-11550}, pmid = {17601778}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; *Fossils ; *Natural History ; Peru ; Phylogeny ; Spheniscidae/*anatomy &amp; histology ; }, abstract = {New penguin fossils from the Eocene of Peru force a reevaluation of previous hypotheses regarding the causal role of climate change in penguin evolution. Repeatedly it has been proposed that penguins originated in high southern latitudes and arrived at equatorial regions relatively recently (e.g., 4-8 million years ago), well after the onset of latest Eocene/Oligocene global cooling and increases in polar ice volume. By contrast, new discoveries from the middle and late Eocene of Peru reveal that penguins invaded low latitudes >30 million years earlier than prior data suggested, during one of the warmest intervals of the Cenozoic. A diverse fauna includes two new species, here reported from two of the best exemplars of Paleogene penguins yet recovered. The most comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of Sphenisciformes to date, combining morphological and molecular data, places the new species outside the extant penguin radiation (crown clade: Spheniscidae) and supports two separate dispersals to equatorial (paleolatitude approximately 14 degrees S) regions during greenhouse earth conditions. One new species, Perudyptes devriesi, is among the deepest divergences within Sphenisciformes. The second, Icadyptes salasi, is the most complete giant (>1.5 m standing height) penguin yet described. Both species provide critical information on early penguin cranial osteology, trends in penguin body size, and the evolution of the penguin flipper.}, }
@article {pmid17600192, year = {2007}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {New priorities for climate change research.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {316}, number = {5833}, pages = {1828-1829}, doi = {10.1126/science.316.5833.1828b}, pmid = {17600192}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17600006, year = {2007}, author = {O'Dowd, A}, title = {NHS is told it must play its part in tackling climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {334}, number = {7608}, pages = {1343}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.39258.584734.DB}, pmid = {17600006}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; State Medicine/*organization &amp; administration ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid17597738, year = {2007}, author = {Tol, R}, title = {Estimating the cost of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {447}, number = {7148}, pages = {1052}, doi = {10.1038/4471052b}, pmid = {17597738}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid17596074, year = {2007}, author = {Nau, JY}, title = {[Oenology and global warming].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {3}, number = {112}, pages = {1346}, pmid = {17596074}, issn = {1660-9379}, mesh = {Fermentation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Wine ; }, }
@article {pmid17594426, year = {2007}, author = {Memmott, J and Craze, PG and Waser, NM and Price, MV}, title = {Global warming and the disruption of plant-pollinator interactions.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {710-717}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01061.x}, pmid = {17594426}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Computer Simulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Illinois ; Insecta/*physiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Plants ; Pollination/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; *Symbiosis ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is widely expected to drive species extinct by hampering individual survival and reproduction, by reducing the amount and accessibility of suitable habitat, or by eliminating other organisms that are essential to the species in question. Less well appreciated is the likelihood that climate change will directly disrupt or eliminate mutually beneficial (mutualistic) ecological interactions between species even before extinctions occur. We explored the potential disruption of a ubiquitous mutualistic interaction of terrestrial habitats, that between plants and their animal pollinators, via climate change. We used a highly resolved empirical network of interactions between 1420 pollinator and 429 plant species to simulate consequences of the phenological shifts that can be expected with a doubling of atmospheric CO(2). Depending on model assumptions, phenological shifts reduced the floral resources available to 17-50% of all pollinator species, causing as much as half of the ancestral activity period of the animals to fall at times when no food plants were available. Reduced overlap between plants and pollinators also decreased diet breadth of the pollinators. The predicted result of these disruptions is the extinction of pollinators, plants and their crucial interactions.}, }
@article {pmid17588920, year = {2007}, author = {Baker, DF}, title = {Climate change. Reassessing carbon sinks.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {316}, number = {5832}, pages = {1708-1709}, doi = {10.1126/science.1144863}, pmid = {17588920}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17588156, year = {2008}, author = {Aydin, M and Yano, T and Evrendilek, F and Uygur, V}, title = {Implications of climate change for evaporation from bare soils in a Mediterranean environment.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {140}, number = {1-3}, pages = {123-130}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-007-9854-4}, pmid = {17588156}, issn = {0167-6369}, mesh = {*Climate ; Mediterranean Region ; *Soil ; Water/chemistry ; }, abstract = {The purpose of this study was to predict quantitative changes in evaporation from bare soils in the Mediterranean climate region of Turkey in response to the projections of a regional climate model developed in Japan (hereafter RCM). Daily RCM data for the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETr) and soil evaporation were obtained for the periods of 1994--2003 and 2070--2079. Potential evaporation (Ep) from bare soils was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation with a surface resistance of zero. Simulation of actual soil evaporation (Ea) was carried out using Aydin model (Aydin et al., Ecological Modelling 182:91-105, 2005) combined with Aydin and Uygur (2006, A model for estimating soil water potential of bare fields. In Proceedings of the 18th International Soil Meeting (ISM) on Soils Sustaining Life on Earth, Managing Soil and Technology, Sanliurfa, 477-480pp.) model of predicting soil water potential at the top surface layer of a bare soil, after performances of Aydin model (R2 = 94.0%) and Aydin and Uygur model (R2 = 97.6) were tested. The latter model is based on the relations among potential soil evaporation, hydraulic diffusivity, and soil wetness, with some simplified assumptions. Input parameters of the model are simple and easily obtainable such as climatic parameters used to compute the potential soil evaporation, average diffusivity for the drying soil, and volumetric water content at field capacity. The combination of Aydin and Aydin and Uygur models appeared to be useful in estimating water potential of soils and Ea from bare soils, with only a few parameters. Unlike ETr and Ep projected to increase by 92 and 69 mm (equivalent to 8.0 and 7.3% increases) due to the elevated evaporative demand of the atmosphere, respectively, Ea from bare soils is projected to reduce by 50 mm (equivalent to a 16.5% decrease) in response to a decrease in rainfall by 46% in the Mediterranean region of Turkey by the 2070s predicted by RCM, and consequently, to decreased soil wetness in the future.}, }
@article {pmid17587065, year = {2007}, author = {Matulla, C and Schmutz, S and Melcher, A and Gerersdorfer, T and Haas, P}, title = {Assessing the impact of a downscaled climate change simulation on the fish fauna in an Inner-Alpine River.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {52}, number = {2}, pages = {127-137}, pmid = {17587065}, issn = {1432-1254}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; Behavior, Animal/*physiology ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; *Environment ; Fishes/*physiology ; Germany ; *Models, Biological ; *Rivers ; }, abstract = {This study assesses the impact of a changing climate on fish fauna by comparing the past mean state of fish assemblage to a possible future mean state. It is based on (1) local scale observations along an Inner-Alpine river called Mur, (2) an IPCC emission scenario (IS92a), implemented by atmosphere-ocean global circulation model (AOGCM) ECHAM4/OPYC3, and (3) a model-chain that links climate research to hydrobiology. The Mur River is still in a near-natural condition and water temperature in summer is the most important aquatic ecological constraint for fish distribution. The methodological strategy is (1) to use downscaled air temperature and precipitation scenarios for the first half of the twenty-first century, (2) to establish a model that simulates water temperature by means of air temperature and flow rate in order to generate water temperature scenarios, and (3) to evaluate the impact on fish communities using an ecological model that is driven by water temperature. This methodology links the response of fish fauna to an IPCC emission scenario and is to our knowledge an unprecedented approach. The downscaled IS92a scenarios show increased mean air temperatures during the whole year and increased precipitation totals during summer, but reduced totals for the rest of the annual cycle. These changes result in scenarios of increased water temperatures, an altered annual cycle of flow rate, and, in turn, a 70 m displacement in elevation of fish communities towards the river's head. This would enhance stress on species that rely on low water temperatures and coerce cyprinid species into advancing against retreating salmonids. Hyporhithral river sectors would turn into epipotamal sectors. Grayling (Thymallus thymallus) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), presently characteristic for the Mur River, would be superceded by other species. Native brown trout (Salmo trutta), already now under pressure of competition, may be at risk of losing its habitat in favour of invaders like the exotic rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), which are better adapted to higher water temperatures. Projected changes in fish communities suggest an adverse influence on salmonid sport fishing and a loss in its high economic value.}, }
@article {pmid17585623, year = {2007}, author = {Genton, B and Loutan, L}, title = {[Global warming and malaria: a hot debate].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {3}, number = {111}, pages = {1219-1220}, pmid = {17585623}, issn = {1660-9379}, mesh = {Animals ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development ; Malaria/*epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid17580765, year = {2007}, author = {Appleby, J}, title = {Data briefing. How climate change will affect health.}, journal = {The Health service journal}, volume = {117}, number = {6057}, pages = {21}, pmid = {17580765}, issn = {0952-2271}, mesh = {Environmental Health/*trends ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid17569851, year = {2007}, author = {Baldwin, MP and Dameris, M and Shepherd, TG}, title = {Atmosphere. How will the stratosphere affect climate change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {316}, number = {5831}, pages = {1576-1577}, doi = {10.1126/science.1144303}, pmid = {17569851}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17569653, year = {2007}, author = {Murphy, JM and Booth, BB and Collins, M and Harris, GR and Sexton, DM and Webb, MJ}, title = {A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1857}, pages = {1993-2028}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2007.2077}, pmid = {17569653}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {A methodology is described for probabilistic predictions of future climate. This is based on a set of ensemble simulations of equilibrium and time-dependent changes, carried out by perturbing poorly constrained parameters controlling key physical and biogeochemical processes in the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere global climate model. These (ongoing) experiments allow quantification of the effects of earth system modelling uncertainties and internal climate variability on feedbacks likely to exert a significant influence on twenty-first century climate at large regional scales. A further ensemble of regional climate simulations at 25km resolution is being produced for Europe, allowing the specification of probabilistic predictions at spatial scales required for studies of climate impacts. The ensemble simulations are processed using a set of statistical procedures, the centrepiece of which is a Bayesian statistical framework designed for use with complex but imperfect models. This supports the generation of probabilities constrained by a wide range of observational metrics, and also by expert-specified prior distributions defining the model parameter space. The Bayesian framework also accounts for additional uncertainty introduced by structural modelling errors, which are estimated using our ensembles to predict the results of alternative climate models containing different structural assumptions. This facilitates the generation of probabilistic predictions combining information from perturbed physics and multi-model ensemble simulations. The methodology makes extensive use of emulation and scaling techniques trained on climate model results. These are used to sample the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide at any required point in the parameter space of surface and atmospheric processes, to sample time-dependent changes by combining this information with ensembles sampling uncertainties in the transient response of a wider set of earth system processes, and to sample changes at local scales. The methodology is necessarily dependent on a number of expert choices, which are highlighted throughout the paper.}, }
@article {pmid17569650, year = {2007}, author = {New, M and Lopez, A and Dessai, S and Wilby, R}, title = {Challenges in using probabilistic climate change information for impact assessments: an example from the water sector.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1857}, pages = {2117-2131}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2007.2080}, pmid = {17569650}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {Climate change impacts and adaptation assessments have traditionally adopted a scenario-based approach, which precludes an assessment of the relative risks of particular adaptation options. Probabilistic impact assessments, especially if based on a thorough analysis of the uncertainty in an impact forecast system, enable adoption of a risk-based assessment framework. However, probabilistic impacts information is conditional and will change over time. We explore the implications of a probabilistic end-to-end risk-based framework for climate impacts assessment, using the example of water resources in the Thames River, UK. We show that a probabilistic approach provides more informative results that enable the potential risk of impacts to be quantified, but that details of the risks are dependent on the approach used in the analysis.}, }
@article {pmid17569649, year = {2007}, author = {Collins, M}, title = {Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1857}, pages = {1957-1970}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2007.2068}, pmid = {17569649}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Predictions of future climate are of central importance in determining actions to adapt to the impacts of climate change and in formulating targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. In the absence of analogues of the future, physically based numerical climate models must be used to make predictions. New approaches are under development to deal with a number of sources of uncertainty that arise in the prediction process. This paper introduces some of the concepts and issues in these new approaches, which are discussed in more detail in the papers contained in this issue.}, }
@article {pmid17569647, year = {2007}, author = {Min, SK and Simonis, D and Hense, A}, title = {Probabilistic climate change predictions applying Bayesian model averaging.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1857}, pages = {2103-2116}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2007.2070}, pmid = {17569647}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {This study explores the sensitivity of probabilistic predictions of the twenty-first century surface air temperature (SAT) changes to different multi-model averaging methods using available simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report. A way of observationally constrained prediction is provided by training multi-model simulations for the second half of the twentieth century with respect to long-term components. The Bayesian model averaging (BMA) produces weighted probability density functions (PDFs) and we compare two methods of estimating weighting factors: Bayes factor and expectation-maximization algorithm. It is shown that Bayesian-weighted PDFs for the global mean SAT changes are characterized by multi-modal structures from the middle of the twenty-first century onward, which are not clearly seen in arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM). This occurs because BMA tends to select a few high-skilled models and down-weight the others. Additionally, Bayesian results exhibit larger means and broader PDFs in the global mean predictions than the unweighted AEM. Multi-modality is more pronounced in the continental analysis using 30-year mean (2070-2099) SATs while there is only a little effect of Bayesian weighting on the 5-95% range. These results indicate that this approach to observationally constrained probabilistic predictions can be highly sensitive to the method of training, particularly for the later half of the twenty-first century, and that a more comprehensive approach combining different regions and/or variables is required.}, }
@article {pmid17561777, year = {2007}, author = {Wittig, R and König, K and Schmidt, M and Szarzynski, J}, title = {A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {182-189}, pmid = {17561777}, issn = {0944-1344}, mesh = {Africa, Western ; Agriculture ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate ; Geography ; Homing Behavior ; Humans ; Rain ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone.<br><br>MATERIALS AND METHODS: Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots.<br><br>RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the study region the extent of arable fields and young fallows increased during the last 30 years from 580 km(2) in 1972 to 2870 km(2) in 2001. This means an average land cover conversion rate of 0.9% per year for the 6 departments considered. Change of the distribution of Sahelian and Sudanian species: Several species, mentioned in older literature as strictly Sahelian, today also occur in the Sudanian zone. Parallel to the spread of former strictly Sahelian species into the Sudanian zone, some former Sahelo-Sudanian species have withdrawn from the Sahel. Changes of the life form spectra of the flora: Considering their life form spectra, the flora of heavily grazed and of protected areas in the Sudanian zone show great differences. On areas intensively grazed the percentage of therophytes is evidently higher than on protected areas. Just the opposite is true for the phanerophytes. Their percentage is higher on the protected area than on the grazed zones. At the first glance, it is obvious to link the changes in flora and vegetation with the climate changes that have occurred during the last five decades (decrease of annual precipitation). However, not only climatic conditions have changed, but also population has increased, the percentage of land intensively used for agriculture and pasturing has increased and the time for soil regeneration today is much shorter than it was some decades ago. Thus, the landscape of the Sudanian zone has become a more Sahelian character. A comparison of the flora of an intensively used area of the Sudanian zone with that of a protected area shows a remarkable change in the life form spectra. The spectrum of the intensively used area is almost identical with that of the typical Sahelian flora. This comparison shows that the anthropogenic influence plays a greater role in the sahelisation of the Sudanian zone than the climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change and anthropogenic influence both, lead to a sahelisation of landscape and flora. Thus in many parts of the Sudanian zone of West Africa sahelisation phenomena will remain and even increase independently from the reestablishment of the more humid climate conditions of the 1950ies.<br><br>In order to maintain some parts of the characteristic Sudanian landscape with its characteristic flora and vegetation, the number and size of protected areas should be augmented. For all protected areas it has to be ensured, that protection is reality, i.e. respected an understood by local people, not only fiction. As long as the enlargement of intensively used areas continues the sahelisation of flora, vegetation and landscape will continue too.}, }
@article {pmid17556560, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Pushing the scary side of global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {316}, number = {5830}, pages = {1412-1415}, doi = {10.1126/science.316.5830.1412}, pmid = {17556560}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17553770, year = {2007}, author = {Trathan, PN and Forcada, J and Murphy, EJ}, title = {Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {362}, number = {1488}, pages = {2351-2365}, pmid = {17553770}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Ecosystem ; Fur Seals/*physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; Predatory Behavior/*physiology ; Spheniscidae/*physiology ; Whales/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in different regional food webs, there is the potential to make predictions about future change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid17551580, year = {2007}, author = {Sumilo, D and Asokliene, L and Bormane, A and Vasilenko, V and Golovljova, I and Randolph, SE}, title = {Climate change cannot explain the upsurge of tick-borne encephalitis in the Baltics.}, journal = {PloS one}, volume = {2}, number = {6}, pages = {e500}, pmid = {17551580}, issn = {1932-6203}, support = {//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 070696/Z/03/Z//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {*Climate ; Encephalitis Viruses, Tick-Borne/*pathogenicity ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/*epidemiology/transmission/virology ; Estonia/epidemiology ; Humans ; Latvia/epidemiology ; Lithuania/epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Pathogens transmitted by ticks cause human disease on a greater scale than any other vector-borne infections in Europe, and have increased dramatically over the past 2-3 decades. Reliable records of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) since 1970 show an especially sharp upsurge in cases in Eastern Europe coincident with the end of Soviet rule, including the three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, where national incidence increased from 1992 to 1993 by 64, 175 and 1,065%, respectively. At the county level within each country, however, the timing and degree of increase showed marked heterogeneity. Climate has also changed over this period, prompting an almost universal assumption of causality. For the first time, we analyse climate and TBE epidemiology at sufficiently fine spatial and temporal resolution to question this assumption.<br><br>METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING: Detailed analysis of instrumental records of climate has revealed a significant step increase in spring-time daily maximum temperatures in 1989. The seasonal timing and precise level of this warming were indeed such as could promote the transmission of TBE virus between larval and nymphal ticks co-feeding on rodents. These changes in climate, however, are virtually uniform across the Baltic region and cannot therefore explain the marked spatio-temporal heterogeneity in TBE epidemiology.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Instead, it is proposed that climate is just one of many different types of factors, many arising from the socio-economic transition associated with the end of Soviet rule, that have acted synergistically to increase both the abundance of infected ticks and the exposure of humans to these ticks. Understanding the precise differential contribution of each factor as a cause of the observed epidemiological heterogeneity will help direct control strategies.}, }
@article {pmid17545564, year = {2007}, author = {Bentley, M}, title = {Healthy Cities, local environmental action and climate change.}, journal = {Health promotion international}, volume = {22}, number = {3}, pages = {246-253}, doi = {10.1093/heapro/dam013}, pmid = {17545564}, issn = {0957-4824}, mesh = {Australia ; Community Participation/*methods ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; Demography ; *Environmental Health ; Europe ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Priorities ; Healthy People Programs/*organization &amp; administration ; Humans ; Program Evaluation ; *Urban Health ; }, abstract = {This paper reports results of a study that explored the relationship between the local environmental actions of Healthy Cities programs and the adverse health impacts of climate change. The analysis is primarily based on a limited literature review of climate change and health, with particular attention to the relationships between Healthy Cities and climate change, and on documentary analysis of information from organization reports and website content associated with Healthy Cities programs in Europe and Australia. Four semi-structured interviews with key people in two Healthy Cities programs in Europe and Australia were conducted to provide information to supplement and complement the published information and to verify theme identification. The main findings of this study are that, although there is no explicit connection between the local activities of Healthy Cities programs and the potential (or actual) adverse health impacts of climate change, Healthy Cities programs are involved in many local environmental actions and some of these actions, for example, those relating to improving air quality and reducing pollution, are linked implicitly to the health impacts of climate change. Through their local relationships and their participation in regional networks, Healthy Cities are able to make connections between local environmental actions and the health impacts of climate change. Furthermore, expanding Healthy Cities to include eco-social sustainability as a central aim not only has the potential to strengthen the links between local environmental actions and climate change, but also presents a relevant health development setting for exploring the social and environmental sustainability of cities.}, }
@article {pmid17540863, year = {2007}, author = {Wentz, FJ and Ricciardulli, L and Hilburn, K and Mears, C}, title = {How much more rain will global warming bring?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {317}, number = {5835}, pages = {233-235}, doi = {10.1126/science.1140746}, pmid = {17540863}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Climate models and satellite observations both indicate that the total amount of water in the atmosphere will increase at a rate of 7% per kelvin of surface warming. However, the climate models predict that global precipitation will increase at a much slower rate of 1 to 3% per kelvin. A recent analysis of satellite observations does not support this prediction of a muted response of precipitation to global warming. Rather, the observations suggest that precipitation and total atmospheric water have increased at about the same rate over the past two decades.}, }
@article {pmid17538571, year = {2007}, author = {Alford, RA and Bradfield, KS and Richards, SJ}, title = {Ecology: global warming and amphibian losses.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {447}, number = {7144}, pages = {E3-4; discussion E5-6}, doi = {10.1038/nature05940}, pmid = {17538571}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Central America ; Costa Rica/epidemiology ; *Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Fungi/physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; Mycoses/epidemiology/veterinary ; Population Density ; Queensland/epidemiology ; Ranidae/abnormalities/*microbiology/*physiology ; Reproducibility of Results ; South America ; Stress, Physiological/physiopathology/veterinary ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Is global warming contributing to amphibian declines and extinctions by promoting outbreaks of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis? Analysing patterns from the American tropics, Pounds et al. envisage a process in which a single warm year triggers die-offs in a particular area (for instance, 1987 in the case of Monteverde, Costa Rica). However, we show here that populations of two frog species in the Australian tropics experienced increasing developmental instability, which is evidence of stress, at least two years before they showed chytrid-related declines. Because the working model of Pounds et al. is incomplete, their test of the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis could be inconclusive.}, }
@article {pmid17513270, year = {2007}, author = {Hansen, J and Sato, M and Kharecha, P and Russell, G and Lea, DW and Siddall, M}, title = {Climate change and trace gases.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1856}, pages = {1925-1954}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2007.2052}, pmid = {17513270}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Arctic Regions ; *Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Methane ; Nitrous Oxide ; Soot ; }, abstract = {Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.}, }
@article {pmid17511700, year = {2007}, author = {Brouwer, R and Akter, S and Brander, L and Haque, E}, title = {Socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk: a case study of climate change and flooding in Bangladesh.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {313-326}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00884.x}, pmid = {17511700}, issn = {0272-4332}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adult ; Bangladesh ; *Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; Environment ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Relief Work ; *Risk ; Risk Assessment ; Social Class ; }, abstract = {In this article we investigate the complex relationship between environmental risk, poverty, and vulnerability in a case study carried out in one of the poorest and most flood-prone countries in the world, focusing on household and community vulnerability and adaptive coping mechanisms. Based upon the steadily growing amount of literature in this field we develop and test our own analytical model. In a large-scale household survey carried out in southeast Bangladesh, we ask almost 700 floodplain residents living without any flood protection along the River Meghna about their flood risk exposure, flood problems, flood damage, and coping mechanisms. Novel in our study is the explicit testing of the effectiveness of adaptive coping strategies to reduce flood damage costs. We show that, households with lower income and less access to productive natural assets face higher exposure to risk of flooding. Disparity in income and asset distribution at community level furthermore tends to be higher at higher risk exposure levels, implying that individually vulnerable households are also collectively more vulnerable. Regarding the identification of coping mechanisms to deal with flood events, we look at both the ex ante household level preparedness for flood events and the ex post availability of community-level support and disaster relief. We find somewhat paradoxically that the people that face the highest risk of flooding are the least well prepared, both in terms of household-level ex ante preparedness and community-level ex post flood relief.}, }
@article {pmid17510327, year = {2007}, author = {Le Quéré, C and Rödenbeck, C and Buitenhuis, ET and Conway, TJ and Langenfelds, R and Gomez, A and Labuschagne, C and Ramonet, M and Nakazawa, T and Metzl, N and Gillett, N and Heimann, M}, title = {Saturation of the southern ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {316}, number = {5832}, pages = {1735-1738}, doi = {10.1126/science.1136188}, pmid = {17510327}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Based on observed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and an inverse method, we estimate that the Southern Ocean sink of CO2 has weakened between 1981 and 2004 by 0.08 petagrams of carbon per year per decade relative to the trend expected from the large increase in atmospheric CO2. We attribute this weakening to the observed increase in Southern Ocean winds resulting from human activities, which is projected to continue in the future. Consequences include a reduction of the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink of CO2 in the short term (about 25 years) and possibly a higher level of stabilization of atmospheric CO2 on a multicentury time scale.}, }
@article {pmid17503604, year = {2007}, author = {Payette, S}, title = {Contrasted dynamics of northern Labrador tree lines caused by climate change and migrational lag.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {88}, number = {3}, pages = {770-780}, doi = {10.1890/06-0265}, pmid = {17503604}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {*Altitude ; *Demography ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Newfoundland and Labrador ; Picea/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {The northern Québec-Labrador tree lines are the most climatically stressed tree ecosystems of eastern North America. In particular, white spruce (Picea glauca) tree line populations distributed between 56 degrees N and 58 degrees N and 61 degrees W and 66 degrees W show contrasted responses to recent changes in climate according to their geographic position relative to the Labrador Sea. Along the coast, the northernmost latitudinal and altitudinal tree lines responded positively to warming over the last 50 years with invading spruce several tens of meters above the current tree line. In contrast, white spruce tree lines across the wind-exposed Labrador plateau are located much higher in altitude and have receded a few tens of meters beginning around AD 1740-1750 and have not yet recovered. Whereas no field evidence of recent fire and insect damage was found, all inland tree line stands were progressively damaged likely due to mechanical defoliation of wind-exposed trees. Massive tree death in the 19th century caused a reduction in the number of seed-bearing trees, and declining tree lines were not replenished by seedlings. Recent warming reported for northern latitudes has not been strong enough to change the regressive tree line trajectory in interior Labrador. However, white spruce expansion above coastal tree line in the northernmost forest site in Labrador is in line with current climatic trends. It is hypothesized that the species is still advancing toward its potential tree line higher in altitude due to delayed postglacial migration. The slow advance of white spruce in northernmost coastal Labrador is likely caused by the rugged topography of the Torngat-Kaumajet-Kiglapait mountains.}, }
@article {pmid17495899, year = {2007}, author = {Morton, O}, title = {Climate change: is this what it takes to save the world?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {447}, number = {7141}, pages = {132-136}, doi = {10.1038/447132a}, pmid = {17495899}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Ecology/*methods/trends ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Sulfur Dioxide/*analysis ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Volcanic Eruptions ; }, }
@article {pmid17495153, year = {2007}, author = {Huntingford, C and Lowe, J}, title = {"Overshoot" scenarios and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {316}, number = {5826}, pages = {829}, doi = {10.1126/science.316.5826.829b}, pmid = {17495153}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17495143, year = {2007}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Meanwhile, back in Washington..}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {316}, number = {5826}, pages = {813-814}, doi = {10.1126/science.316.5826.813}, pmid = {17495143}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17495142, year = {2007}, author = {Bohannon, J}, title = {Climate change. IPCC report lays out options for taming greenhouse gases.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {316}, number = {5826}, pages = {812-814}, doi = {10.1126/science.316.5826.812}, pmid = {17495142}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17494186, year = {2007}, author = {Ohtomo, H and Akao, N}, title = {[Effect of global warming on infectious diseases].}, journal = {Nihon rinsho. Japanese journal of clinical medicine}, volume = {65 Suppl 3}, number = {}, pages = {653-658}, pmid = {17494186}, issn = {0047-1852}, mesh = {Disease Outbreaks ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Infections/*epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid17488825, year = {2007}, author = {Wake, DB}, title = {Climate change implicated in amphibian and lizard declines.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {20}, pages = {8201-8202}, pmid = {17488825}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Amphibians/*physiology ; Animals ; Costa Rica ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Lizards/*physiology ; Plant Leaves ; Population Dynamics ; }, }
@article {pmid17486218, year = {2007}, author = {Campbell-Lendrum, D and Corvalán, C and Neira, M}, title = {Global climate change: implications for international public health policy.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {85}, number = {3}, pages = {235-237}, pmid = {17486218}, issn = {0042-9686}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disaster Planning/organization &amp; administration ; Disasters ; Environmental Health/organization &amp; administration ; *Global Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Public Health/*methods ; Sentinel Surveillance ; }, }
@article {pmid17484479, year = {2007}, author = {Santos Arrontes, D and García González, JI and Martín Muñoz, MP and Castro Pita, M and Mañas Pelillo, A and Paniagua Andrés, P}, title = {[Will the climate change affect the mortality from prostate cancer?].}, journal = {Archivos espanoles de urologia}, volume = {60}, number = {2}, pages = {119-123}, doi = {10.4321/s0004-06142007000200003}, pmid = {17484479}, issn = {0004-0614}, mesh = {Climate ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Humidity ; Male ; Meteorological Concepts ; Mortality/trends ; Prostatic Neoplasms/*mortality ; Retrospective Studies ; Spain/epidemiology ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {UNLABELLED: The global heating of the atmosphere, as well as the increase of the exposition to sunlight, will be associated with a decrease of the mortality from prostate cancer, due to an increase of the plasmatic levels of vitamin D.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: To evaluate if climatological factors (temperature, rainfall, and number of sunlight hours per year) may influence the mortality associated with prostate cancer over a five-year period.<br><br>METHODS: In this ecology type study we will evaluate the trends of prostate tumors associated mortality in the period between January 1st 1998 and December 31st 2002, in the geographic area of Spain (17 Autonomic communities-CA-and 2 Autonomic cities- Ceuta and Melilla-, 43 million inhabitants). Demographic and mortality data were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) and climatological data about temperature and rainfall were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology (INM). The provinces were classified using the climatic index of Martonne (defined as the quotient between annual rainfall and mean annual temperature plus 10). Areas with a quotient below 5 ml/m2/o C are considered extremely arid zones; between 5 and 15 ml/m2/o C are considered arid zones, between 15 and 20 ml/m2/o C semiarid zones; between 20 and 30 ml/m2/o C subhumid zones; between 30 and 60 ml/m2/o C humid zones; and over 60 ml/m2/o C superhumid zones. We compared mortality rates between different climatic areas using the Jonckheere-Terpstra test for six independent samples following the index of Martonne. All calculations were performed using the SPSS v 13.0 for Windows software. A logistic regression model was performed to identify climate factors associated with prostate cancer mortality. A likeliness of the null hypotheses inferior to 0.05 was considered significant.<br><br>RESULTS: Prostate cancer mortality presented statistically significant differences, being higher in provinces with higher Martonne index (p < 0.001) and lower in areas with a greater number of sunlight hours per year (p = 0.041). The adjusted mortality rate associated with extreme aridity regions and was 21.51 cases/100,000 males year, whereas in humid zones it was 35.87 cases/100,000 males years.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Mortality associated with prostate cancer is significantly superior in regions with less exposition to the sunlight. The climate change may lead to a modification of the main epidemiologic patterns, and it may be associated with a modification of cancer mortality rates. Nevertheless, these results should be taken with caution and should be confirmed by prospective studies.}, }
@article {pmid17483453, year = {2007}, author = {Naylor, RL and Battisti, DS and Vimont, DJ and Falcon, WP and Burke, MB}, title = {Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {19}, pages = {7752-7757}, pmid = {17483453}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Indonesia ; Models, Theoretical ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Risk Assessment ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9-18% today (depending on the region) to 30-40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April-June) of approximately 10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July-September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems.}, }
@article {pmid17479838, year = {2007}, author = {Logan, JA and Régnière, J and Gray, DR and Munson, AS}, title = {Risk assessment in the face of a changing environment: gypsy moth and climate change in Utah.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {101-117}, doi = {10.1890/1051-0761(2007)017[0101:raitfo]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {17479838}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Models, Theoretical ; Moths/*physiology ; Risk Assessment ; Utah ; }, abstract = {The importance of efficaciously assessing the risk for introduction and establishment of pest species is an increasingly important ecological and economic issue. Evaluation of climate is fundamental to determining the potential success of an introduced or invasive insect pest. However, evaluating climatic suitability poses substantial difficulties; climate can be measured and assessed in a bewildering array of ways. Some physiological filter, in essence a lens that focuses climate through the requirements and constraints of a potential pest introduction, is required. Difficulties in assessing climate suitability are further exacerbated by the effects of climate change. Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) is an exotic, tree-defoliating insect that is frequently introduced into the western United States. In spite of an abundance of potential host species, these introductions have yet to result in established populations. The success of eradication efforts and the unsuccessful establishment of many detected and undetected introductions may be related to an inhospitable climate. Climatic suitability for gypsy moth in the western United States, however, is potentially improving, perhaps rapidly, due to a general warming trend that began in the mid 1970s and continues today. In this work, we describe the application of a physiologically based climate suitability model for evaluating risk of gypsy moth establishment on a landscape level. Development of this risk assessment system first required amassing databases that integrated the gypsy moth climatic assessment model, with host species distributions, and climate (historical, present, and future). This integrated system was then used to evaluate climate change scenarios for native host species in Utah, with the result that risk of establishment will dramatically increase during the remainder of the 21st century under reasonable climate change scenarios. We then applied the risk assessment system to several case histories of detected gypsy moth introductions in Utah. These applications demonstrated the general utility of the system for predicting risk of establishment and for designing improved risk detection strategies.}, }
@article {pmid17479837, year = {2007}, author = {Riera, P and Peñuelas, J and Farreras, V and Estiarte, M}, title = {Valuation of climate-change effects on Mediterranean shrublands.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {91-100}, doi = {10.1890/1051-0761(2007)017[0091:voceom]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {17479837}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {*Climate ; Mediterranean Region ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {In general, the socioeconomic analysis of natural systems does not enter into the realms of natural science. This paper, however, estimates the human-welfare effects of possible physicochemical and biological impacts of climate change on Mediterranean shrublands over the coming 50 years. The contingent choice method was applied to elicit the trade-offs in perceived values for three climate-sensitive attributes of shrubland (plant cover, fire risk, and soil erosion) and for the costs of programs designed to mitigate changes. Soil erosion was found to be the attribute of shrubland that most concerned the population, followed by fire risk and then plant cover. An increase of 1% in the shrubland area affected by erosion was estimated to cost each person on average 2.9 euros per year in terms of lost welfare, a figure that is equivalent in terms of perceptions of social welfare to an increase of 0.24% in the shrub area burned annually and a decrease of 3.19% in the area of plant cover. These trade-off values may help ecologists, policy makers, and land managers to take social preferences into account.}, }
@article {pmid17475372, year = {2007}, author = {Bellucci, LG and Frignani, M and Cochran, JK and Albertazzi, S and Zaggia, L and Cecconi, G and Hopkins, H}, title = {210Pb and 137Cs as chronometers for salt marsh accretion in the Venice Lagoon - links to flooding frequency and climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental radioactivity}, volume = {97}, number = {2-3}, pages = {85-102}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvrad.2007.03.005}, pmid = {17475372}, issn = {0265-931X}, mesh = {Cesium Radioisotopes/analysis ; Climate ; Disasters ; *Geologic Sediments ; Italy ; Lead Radioisotopes/analysis ; *Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Five salt marsh sediment cores from different parts of the Venice Lagoon were studied to determine their depositional history and its relationship with the environmental changes occurred during the past approximately 100 years. X-radiographs of the cores show no disturbance related to particle mixing. Accretion rates were calculated using a constant flux model applied to excess (210)Pb distributions in the cores. The record of (137)Cs fluxes to the sites, determined from (137)Cs profiles and the (210)Pb chronologies, shows inputs from the global fallout of (137)Cs in the late 1950s to early 1960s and the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Average accretion rates in the cores are comparable to the long-term average rate of mean sea level rise in the Venice Lagoon (approximately 0.25 cm y(-1)) except for a core collected in a marsh presumably affected by inputs from the Dese River. Short-term variations in accretion rate are correlated with the cumulative frequency of flooding, as determined by records of Acqua Alta, in four of the five cores, suggesting that variations in the phenomena causing flooding (such as wind patterns, storm frequency and NAO) are short-term driving forces for variations in marsh accretion rate.}, }
@article {pmid17465857, year = {2007}, author = {Duntas, LH}, title = {Climate change, the butterfly effect, and the thyroid.}, journal = {Thyroid : official journal of the American Thyroid Association}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {287-288}, doi = {10.1089/thy.2007.1503}, pmid = {17465857}, issn = {1050-7256}, mesh = {Animals ; Butterflies ; Environmental Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Thyroid Gland/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid17463268, year = {2007}, author = {Kolmes, SA and Butkus, RA}, title = {Science, religion, and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {316}, number = {5824}, pages = {540-542}, doi = {10.1126/science.316.5824.540c}, pmid = {17463268}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Catholicism ; *Climate ; *Religion and Science ; }, }
@article {pmid17460046, year = {2007}, author = {Thresher, RE and Koslow, JA and Morison, AK and Smith, DC}, title = {Depth-mediated reversal of the effects of climate change on long-term growth rates of exploited marine fish.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {18}, pages = {7461-7465}, pmid = {17460046}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/classification/*growth &amp; development ; Oceans and Seas ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The oceanographic consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented, but the biological impacts of this change on marine species much less so, in large part because of few long-term data sets. Using otolith analysis, we reconstructed historical changes in annual growth rates for the juveniles of eight long-lived fish species in the southwest Pacific, from as early as 1861. Six of the eight species show significant changes in growth rates during the last century, with the pattern differing systematically with depth. Increasing temperatures near the ocean surface correlate with increasing growth rates by species found in depths <250 m, whereas growth rates of deep-water (>1,000 m) species have declined substantially during the last century, which correlates with evidence of long-term cooling at these depths. The observations suggest that global climate change has enhanced some elements of productivity of the shallow-water stocks but also has reduced the productivity, and possibly the resilience, of the already slow-growing deep-water species.}, }
@article {pmid17450754, year = {2007}, author = {Zhao, HX and Wu, SH and Jiang, LG}, title = {[Research advances in vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {18}, number = {2}, pages = {445-450}, pmid = {17450754}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate ; Disasters ; *Ecosystem ; *Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Climate change with global warming as the sign has been caught great attention by the governments, international organizations, and scientists in the world. Human society and natural ecosystem are both exposed to climate change, and more and more people are waked up by its increasing harm. Vulnerability analysis and assessment are the key and basis for adapting and mitigating climate change, being the highlight in the research fields of climate change and ecology in recent years. The vulnerability assessment of climate change is being carried out in various research fields and on different scales, and much progress has been made. This paper introduced the concept of vulnerability, and summarized the research progress in vulnerability assessment of climate change, with the focus on the frame and methodology of vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change. The existed problems and future prospects in this research area were also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid17450284, year = {2007}, author = {Schröder, W and Pesch, R and Schmidt, G and Englert, C}, title = {Analysis of climate change affecting German forests by combination of meteorological and phenological data within a GIS environment.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {7 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {84-89}, doi = {10.1100/tsw.2007.15}, pmid = {17450284}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {Air ; Altitude ; Databases, Factual ; Environmental Monitoring ; Flowers/growth &amp; development ; Geography ; Germany ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Seasons ; Syringa/growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {The regional assessment of global change effects on plant phenology usually relies on local observations that need to be up-scaled. Therefore, methodological difficulties mostly related to data spatial resolution and congruency arise while performing broader-scale evaluations. Geostatiscs could be a useful tool to solve this type of problem, provided that a database with adequate spatial and temporal resolution is available. An assessment of variations in air temperature and plant phenology was carried out at the country level by using two German datasets regarding spring phenological phases of 15 plant species and air temperature. The data were collected from 1961-2002 at 1,279 and 675 sites, respectively. The annual mean air temperature in Germany was found to rise from 8.3 degrees C in the 1961-1990 period to 9.1 degrees C in the 1991-2002 term. The overall 15-species mean for the start of spring was found to be 6 days earlier in the latter period. The geostatistical analysis of the data revealed the suitability of Syringa vulgaris to be used as an indicator species to detect phenological changes in German forests. Moreover, their spatial patterns were found to be related to altitude and latitude. Therefore, geostatistics proved to be a useful tool to overcome some of the methodological problems related to the regional assessments of global change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid17450274, year = {2007}, author = {Paoletti, E and Bytnerowicz, A and Andersen, C and Augustaitis, A and Ferretti, M and Grulke, N and Günthardt-Goerg, MS and Innes, J and Johnson, D and Karnosky, D and Luangjame, J and Matyssek, R and McNulty, S and Müller-Starck, G and Musselman, R and Percy, K}, title = {Impacts of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems--emerging research needs.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {7 Suppl 1}, number = {}, pages = {1-8}, doi = {10.1100/tsw.2007.52}, pmid = {17450274}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fires ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Research ; Soil ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Outcomes from the 22nd meeting for Specialists in Air Pollution Effects on Forest Ecosystems "Forests under Anthropogenic Pressure--Effects of Air Pollution, Climate Change and Urban Development", September 10-16, 2006, Riverside, CA, are summarized. Tropospheric or ground-level ozone (O3) is still the phytotoxic air pollutant of major interest. Challenging issues are how to make O3 standards or critical levels more biologically based and at the same time practical for wide use; quantification of plant detoxification processes in flux modeling; inclusion of multiple environmental stresses in critical load determinations; new concept development for nitrogen saturation; interactions between air pollution, climate, and forest pests; effects of forest fire on air quality; the capacity of forests to sequester carbon under changing climatic conditions and coexposure to elevated levels of air pollutants; enhanced linkage between molecular biology, biochemistry, physiology, and morphological traits.}, }
@article {pmid17450206, year = {2007}, author = {Tibbetts, J}, title = {Driven to extremes health effects of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {115}, number = {4}, pages = {A196-203}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.115-a196}, pmid = {17450206}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Disasters ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Rain ; }, }
@article {pmid17450189, year = {2007}, author = {Epstein, PR}, title = {Climate change: healthy solutions.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {115}, number = {4}, pages = {A180-1}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.115-a180}, pmid = {17450189}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {*Conservation of Energy Resources/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Policy ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid17448357, year = {2007}, author = {Ebi, KL and Paulson, JA}, title = {Climate change and children.}, journal = {Pediatric clinics of North America}, volume = {54}, number = {2}, pages = {213-26, vii}, doi = {10.1016/j.pcl.2007.01.004}, pmid = {17448357}, issn = {0031-3955}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; Child ; *Child Welfare/trends ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; *Environmental Health/organization &amp; administration ; Forecasting ; Fossil Fuels/adverse effects ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Pediatrics ; Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; Vulnerable Populations ; }, abstract = {Climate change is increasing the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes worldwide. Acting through increasing temperature, changes in the hydrologic cycle, and sea level rise, climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events and extreme events (floods and droughts), change the geographic range and incidence of climate-sensitive vector-, food-, and waterborne diseases, and increase diseases associated with air pollution and aeroallergens. Children are particularly vulnerable to these health outcomes because of their potentially greater exposures, greater sensitivity to certain exposures, and their dependence on caregivers.}, }
@article {pmid17441821, year = {2007}, author = {Morrissey, SA and Reser, JP}, title = {Natural disasters, climate change and mental health considerations for rural Australia.}, journal = {The Australian journal of rural health}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {120-125}, doi = {10.1111/j.1440-1584.2007.00865.x}, pmid = {17441821}, issn = {1038-5282}, mesh = {Adaptation, Psychological ; Attitude to Health ; Australia ; Benchmarking ; *Climate ; Community Participation ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; Disasters/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Evidence-Based Medicine ; Health Promotion ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Humans ; Mental Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Mental Health Services/*organization &amp; administration ; Rural Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Rural Health Services/*organization &amp; administration ; Social Environment ; Stereotyping ; }, abstract = {This paper addresses a very salient feature of rural life and landscapes in Australia, natural disasters, and offers a psychological perspective on individual and community perceptions, responses, preparedness and planning. The convergent perspective offered reflects research and practice findings and insights from social and environmental psychology, as well as clinical, health and community psychology. The objective is to briefly characterise how these psychological approaches frame the psychological and social reality of these threats and events, and to canvas what insights and evidence-based best practice psychology have to offer allied professionals and paraprofessionals, and rural communities, as they experience and come to terms with the vagaries and extremes of the Australian environment.}, }
@article {pmid17432758, year = {2007}, author = {Sellman, J and Hamilton, JD}, title = {Global climate change and human health.}, journal = {Minnesota medicine}, volume = {90}, number = {3}, pages = {47-50}, pmid = {17432758}, issn = {0026-556X}, mesh = {Communicable Diseases/mortality/transmission ; Disasters ; Emigration and Immigration ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Heat Exhaustion/mortality ; Humans ; Minnesota ; Rain ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is a vexing economic, environmental, and public health problem. Climatologists have documented a rise in global average temperature that is unprecedented since the Industrial Revolution. This temperature change correlates with increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases, which largely are of human origin. Global climate change is likely to profoundly affect global health. This article summarizes the science of climatology and global climate change caused by human actions and reviews potential health effects.}, }
@article {pmid17431252, year = {2007}, author = {Watson, R}, title = {Climate change is likely to affect the health of millions, report warns.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {334}, number = {7597}, pages = {768}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.39181.578657.BE}, pmid = {17431252}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid17431148, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Global warming is changing the world.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {316}, number = {5822}, pages = {188-190}, doi = {10.1126/science.316.5822.188}, pmid = {17431148}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid17429376, year = {2007}, author = {Reay, D and Sabine, C and Smith, P and Hymus, G}, title = {Climate change 2007: spring-time for sinks.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {446}, number = {7137}, pages = {727-728}, doi = {10.1038/446727a}, pmid = {17429376}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis/metabolism ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Human Activities ; Oceans and Seas ; *Seasons ; Trees/*metabolism ; Uncertainty ; }, }
@article {pmid17429372, year = {2007}, author = {Haag, A}, title = {Climate Change 2007: Al's army.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {446}, number = {7137}, pages = {723-724}, doi = {10.1038/446723a}, pmid = {17429372}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Communication ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Motion Pictures ; Science/education ; United States ; Volunteers/*organization &amp; administration ; }, }
@article {pmid17429371, year = {2007}, author = {Walker, G}, title = {Climate Change 2007: a world melting from the top down.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {446}, number = {7137}, pages = {718-221}, doi = {10.1038/446718a}, pmid = {17429371}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Ice Cover ; Methane/analysis ; Plants/metabolism ; Soil/analysis ; *Temperature ; Trees/metabolism/physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid17429370, year = {2007}, author = {Giles, J}, title = {Climate Change 2007: how to survive a warming world.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {446}, number = {7137}, pages = {716-717}, doi = {10.1038/446716a}, pmid = {17429370}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology/ethnology ; Agriculture/trends ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Rain ; }, }
@article {pmid17429359, year = {2007}, author = {}, title = {Climate change, here and now.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {446}, number = {7137}, pages = {701}, doi = {10.1038/446701a}, pmid = {17429359}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Agriculture/trends ; Data Collection ; Developing Countries/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid17415326, year = {2006}, author = {Caldicott, H}, title = {Nuclear power is contraindicated as a solution to global warming because of nuclear mutagenesis.}, journal = {MedGenMed : Medscape general medicine}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {45}, pmid = {17415326}, issn = {1531-0132}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Mutagenesis/genetics/*radiation effects ; *Power Plants/trends ; Radioactive Waste/*adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid17412830, year = {2007}, author = {Battin, J and Wiley, MW and Ruckelshaus, MH and Palmer, RN and Korb, E and Bartz, KK and Imaki, H}, title = {Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {16}, pages = {6720-6725}, pmid = {17412830}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Rivers ; *Salmon ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Throughout the world, efforts are under way to restore watersheds, but restoration planning rarely accounts for future climate change. Using a series of linked models of climate, land cover, hydrology, and salmon population dynamics, we investigated the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of proposed habitat restoration efforts designed to recover depleted Chinook salmon populations in a Pacific Northwest river basin. Model results indicate a large negative impact of climate change on freshwater salmon habitat. Habitat restoration and protection can help to mitigate these effects and may allow populations to increase in the face of climate change. The habitat deterioration associated with climate change will, however, make salmon recovery targets much more difficult to attain. Because the negative impacts of climate change in this basin are projected to be most pronounced in relatively pristine, high-elevation streams where little restoration is possible, climate change and habitat restoration together are likely to cause a spatial shift in salmon abundance. River basins that span the current snow line appear especially vulnerable to climate change, and salmon recovery plans that enhance lower-elevation habitats are likely to be more successful over the next 50 years than those that target the higher-elevation basins likely to experience the greatest snow-rain transition.}, }
@article {pmid17410170, year = {2007}, author = {Fenton, LK and Geissler, PE and Haberle, RM}, title = {Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {446}, number = {7136}, pages = {646-649}, doi = {10.1038/nature05718}, pmid = {17410170}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by approximately 0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies.}, }
@article {pmid17405211, year = {2007}, author = {Clarke, A and Murphy, EJ and Meredith, MP and King, JC and Peck, LS and Barnes, DK and Smith, RC}, title = {Climate change and the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {362}, number = {1477}, pages = {149-166}, pmid = {17405211}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Ecosystem ; *Food Chain ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Ice Cover ; Invertebrates/*physiology ; Oceanography ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the fastest rates of regional climate change on Earth, resulting in the collapse of ice shelves, the retreat of glaciers and the exposure of new terrestrial habitat. In the nearby oceanic system, winter sea ice in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas has decreased in extent by 10% per decade, and shortened in seasonal duration. Surface waters have warmed by more than 1 K since the 1950s, and the Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has also warmed. Of the changes observed in the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region to date, alterations in winter sea ice dynamics are the most likely to have had a direct impact on the marine fauna, principally through shifts in the extent and timing of habitat for ice-associated biota. Warming of seawater at depths below ca 100 m has yet to reach the levels that are biologically significant. Continued warming, or a change in the frequency of the flooding of CDW onto the WAP continental shelf may, however, induce sublethal effects that influence ecological interactions and hence food-web operation. The best evidence for recent changes in the ecosystem may come from organisms which record aspects of their population dynamics in their skeleton (such as molluscs or brachiopods) or where ecological interactions are preserved (such as in encrusting biota of hard substrata). In addition, a southwards shift of marine isotherms may induce a parallel migration of some taxa similar to that observed on land. The complexity of the Southern Ocean food web and the nonlinear nature of many interactions mean that predictions based on short-term studies of a small number of species are likely to be misleading.}, }
@article {pmid17405205, year = {2007}, author = {Clarke, A and Johnston, NM and Murphy, EJ and Rogers, AD}, title = {Antarctic ecology from genes to ecosystems: the impact of climate change and the importance of scale.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {362}, number = {1477}, pages = {5-9}, pmid = {17405205}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*genetics ; Antarctic Regions ; *Biological Evolution ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {Antarctica offers a unique natural laboratory for undertaking fundamental research on the relationship between climate, evolutionary processes and molecular adaptation. The fragmentation of Gondwana and the development of wide-scale glaciation have resulted in major episodes of extinction and vicariance, as well as driving adaptation to an extreme environment. On shorter time-scales, glacial cycles have resulted in shifts in distribution, range fragmentation and allopatric speciation, and the Antarctic Peninsula is currently experiencing among the most rapid climatic warming on the planet. The recent revolution in molecular techniques has provided a suite of innovative and powerful tools to explore the consequences of these changes, and these are now providing novel insights into evolutionary and ecological processes in Antarctica. In addition, the increasing use of remotely sensed data is providing a large-scale view of the system that allows these processes to be set in a wider spatial context. In these two volumes, we collect a wide range of papers exploring these themes, concentrating on recent advances and emphasizing the importance of spatial and temporal scale in understanding ecological and evolutionary processes in Antarctica.}, }
@article {pmid17396630, year = {2007}, author = {Engelhaupt, E}, title = {Climate change could offset ozone cleanup.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {41}, number = {5}, pages = {1508-1509}, pmid = {17396630}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ozone/*isolation &amp; purification ; United States ; Volatilization ; }, }
@article {pmid17395818, year = {2007}, author = {Anderson, JB}, title = {Climate change. Ice sheet stability and sea-level rise.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5820}, pages = {1803-1804}, doi = {10.1126/science.1140766}, pmid = {17395818}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17393341, year = {2007}, author = {Campbell-Lendrum, D and Corvalán, C}, title = {Climate change and developing-country cities: implications for environmental health and equity.}, journal = {Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine}, volume = {84}, number = {3 Suppl}, pages = {i109-17}, pmid = {17393341}, issn = {1099-3460}, mesh = {*Developing Countries ; *Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hazardous Substances ; *Health Services Accessibility ; Humans ; *Urban Population ; }, abstract = {Climate change is an emerging threat to global public health. It is also highly inequitable, as the greatest risks are to the poorest populations, who have contributed least to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The rapid economic development and the concurrent urbanization of poorer countries mean that developing-country cities will be both vulnerable to health hazards from climate change and, simultaneously, an increasing contributor to the problem. We review the specific health vulnerabilities of urban populations in developing countries and highlight the range of large direct health effects of energy policies that are concentrated in urban areas. Common vulnerability factors include coastal location, exposure to the urban heat-island effect, high levels of outdoor and indoor air pollution, high population density, and poor sanitation. There are clear opportunities for simultaneously improving health and cutting GHG emissions most obviously through policies related to transport systems, urban planning, building regulations and household energy supply. These influence some of the largest current global health burdens, including approximately 800,000 annual deaths from ambient urban air pollution, 1.2 million from road-traffic accidents, 1.9 million from physical inactivity, and 1.5 million per year from indoor air pollution. GHG emissions and health protection in developing-country cities are likely to become increasingly prominent in policy development. There is a need for a more active input from the health sector to ensure that development and health policies contribute to a preventive approach to local and global environmental sustainability, urban population health, and health equity.}, }
@article {pmid17391271, year = {2007}, author = {Pastene, LA and Goto, M and Kanda, N and Zerbini, AN and Kerem, D and Watanabe, K and Bessho, Y and Hasegawa, M and Nielsen, R and Larsen, F and Palsbøll, PJ}, title = {Radiation and speciation of pelagic organisms during periods of global warming: the case of the common minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {16}, number = {7}, pages = {1481-1495}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03244.x}, pmid = {17391271}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Animals ; Base Sequence ; DNA Primers ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Evolution, Molecular ; *Genetic Speciation ; *Genetics, Population ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Minke Whale/*genetics ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Oceans and Seas ; *Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {How do populations of highly mobile species inhabiting open environments become reproductively isolated and evolve into new species? We test the hypothesis that elevated ocean-surface temperatures can facilitate allopatry among pelagic populations and thus promote speciation. Oceanographic modelling has shown that increasing surface temperatures cause localization and reduction of upwelling, leading to fragmentation of feeding areas critical to pelagic species. We test our hypothesis by genetic analyses of populations of two closely related baleen whales, the Antarctic minke whale (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) and common minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) whose current distributions and migration patterns extent are largely determined by areas of consistent upwelling with high primary production. Phylogeographic and population genetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA control-region nucleotide sequences collected from 467 whales sampled in four different ocean basins were employed to infer the evolutionary relationship among populations of B. acutorostrata by rooting an intraspecific phylogeny with a population of B. bonaerensis. Our findings suggest that the two species diverged in the Southern Hemisphere less than 5 million years ago (Ma). This estimate places the speciation event during a period of extended global warming in the Pliocene. We propose that elevated ocean temperatures in the period facilitated allopatric speciation by disrupting the continuous belt of upwelling maintained by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Our analyses revealed that the current populations of B. acutorostrata likely diverged after the Pliocene some 1.5 Ma when global temperatures had decreased and presumably coinciding with the re-establishment of the polar-equatorial temperature gradient that ultimately drives upwelling. In most population samples, we detected genetic signatures of exponential population expansions, consistent with the notion of increasing carrying capacity after the Pliocene. Our hypothesis that prolonged periods of global warming facilitate speciation in pelagic marine species that depend on upwelling should be tested by comparative analyses in other pelagic species.}, }
@article {pmid17391203, year = {2007}, author = {Hitch, AT and Leberg, PL}, title = {Breeding distributions of north American bird species moving north as a result of climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {534-539}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00609.x}, pmid = {17391203}, issn = {0888-8892}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Demography ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Homing Behavior ; North America ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere, these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species, we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution, indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted, the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid17391179, year = {2007}, author = {McLachlan, JS and Hellmann, JJ and Schwartz, MW}, title = {A framework for debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {297-302}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00676.x}, pmid = {17391179}, issn = {0888-8892}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Demography ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Genetic Variation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; *Public Policy ; Research Design ; Southeastern United States ; Taxaceae/genetics/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid17389397, year = {2007}, author = {McConnell, JR and Aristarain, AJ and Banta, JR and Edwards, PR and Simões, JC}, title = {20th-Century doubling in dust archived in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core parallels climate change and desertification in South America.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {14}, pages = {5743-5748}, pmid = {17389397}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Biodiversity ; *Climate ; Desert Climate/*adverse effects ; *Dust ; Ice/*analysis ; South America ; }, abstract = {Crustal dust in the atmosphere impacts Earth's radiative forcing directly by modifying the radiation budget and affecting cloud nucleation and optical properties, and indirectly through ocean fertilization, which alters carbon sequestration. Increased dust in the atmosphere has been linked to decreased global air temperature in past ice core studies of glacial to interglacial transitions. We present a continuous ice core record of aluminum deposition during recent centuries in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, the most rapidly warming region of the Southern Hemisphere; such a record has not been reported previously. This record shows that aluminosilicate dust deposition more than doubled during the 20th century, coincident with the approximately 1 degrees C Southern Hemisphere warming: a pattern in parallel with increasing air temperatures, decreasing relative humidity, and widespread desertification in Patagonia and northern Argentina. These results have far-reaching implications for understanding the forces driving dust generation and impacts of changing dust levels on climate both in the recent past and future.}, }
@article {pmid17384703, year = {2007}, author = {Wilson, N and Melhuish, M}, title = {Addressing the threat of climate change: is New Zealand lagging behind?.}, journal = {The New Zealand medical journal}, volume = {120}, number = {1251}, pages = {U2479}, pmid = {17384703}, issn = {1175-8716}, mesh = {Environmental Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; New Zealand ; *Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid17379793, year = {2007}, author = {Chameides, W and Oppenheimer, M}, title = {Climate change. Carbon trading over taxes.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5819}, pages = {1670}, doi = {10.1126/science.1138299}, pmid = {17379793}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17377562, year = {2007}, author = {Dawson, TP and Allen, SJ}, title = {Poverty reduction must not exacerbate climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {446}, number = {7134}, pages = {372}, doi = {10.1038/446372a}, pmid = {17377562}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Commerce/economics/trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *International Cooperation ; Poverty/economics/*prevention &amp; control ; Transportation ; Travel/economics/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid17377547, year = {2007}, author = {Marris, E}, title = {Graphic detail: where politicians stand on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {446}, number = {7134}, pages = {354}, doi = {10.1038/446354a}, pmid = {17377547}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Federal Government ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Politics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid17375336, year = {2007}, author = {Wiedner, C and Rücker, J and Brüggemann, R and Nixdorf, B}, title = {Climate change affects timing and size of populations of an invasive cyanobacterium in temperate regions.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {152}, number = {3}, pages = {473-484}, pmid = {17375336}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Climate ; Cylindrospermopsis/*growth &amp; development ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Water Microbiology ; }, abstract = {Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii, an invasive freshwater cyanobacterium, originated from the tropics but has spread to temperate zones over the last few decades. Its northernmost populations in Europe occur in North German lakes. How such dramatic changes in its biogeography are possible and how its population dynamics in the newly invaded habitats are regulated are still unexplained. We therefore conducted a long-term (1993-2005) study of two German lakes to elucidate the mechanisms behind C. raciborskii population dynamics and to identify the abiotic constraints on its development. Our data revealed that pelagic populations of C. raciborskii thrived for three months during the summer, contributing up to 23% of the total cyanobacteria biovolume. Population sizes varied greatly between years without exhibiting any distinct long-term trends. In the annual lifecycle, C. raciborskii filaments emerged in the pelagic habitat when the temperature rose above 15-17 degrees C. At that time, mean photosynthetically active radiation in the mixed water column (I (mix)) overstepped its maximum. Rates of population net increase were highest at the beginning of the season (0.15-0.28 day(-1)), declined continuously over time, and were significantly positively correlated with I (mix). This indicates that the onset of the pelagic population is temperature-mediated and that I (mix) controls its growth. Since I (mix) peaks before the population onset, the time of germination is of crucial importance for successful development. To test this hypothesis, we designed a model to simulate pelagic population size, starting at different dates in the annual cycle. Moving the population onset forward by 30 days resulted in a doubling of the population size. We therefore conclude that an earlier rise in water temperature associated with climate change has promoted the spread of C. raciborskii to the temperate zone. Earlier warming permits earlier germination, thereby shifting the pelagic populations to a phase with higher I (mix), which advances growth and the population establishment.}, }
@article {pmid17374718, year = {2007}, author = {Lesser, MP}, title = {Coral reef bleaching and global climate change: can corals survive the next century?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {13}, pages = {5259-5260}, pmid = {17374718}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*metabolism ; Caribbean Region ; Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Eukaryota/*physiology ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; Symbiosis/physiology ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid17370024, year = {2007}, author = {Keller, CF}, title = {Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {7}, number = {}, pages = {381-399}, doi = {10.1100/tsw.2007.91}, pmid = {17370024}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Policy ; *Records ; *Solar Activity ; }, abstract = {In the four years since my original review (Keller[25]; hereafter referred to as CFK03), research has clarified and strengthened our understanding of how humans are warming the planet. So many of the details highlighted in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report[21] and in CFK03 have been resolved that I expect many to be a bit overwhelmed, and I hope that, by treating just the most significant aspects of the research, this update may provide a road map through the expected maze of new information. In particular, while most of CFK03 remains current, there are important items that have changed: Most notable is the resolution of the conundrum that mid-tropospheric warming did not seem to match surface warming. Both satellite and radiosonde (balloon-borne sensors) data reduction showed little warming in the middle troposphere (4-8 km altitude). In the CFK03 I discussed potential solutions to this problem, but at that time there was no clear resolution. This problem has now been solved, and the middle troposphere is seen to be warming apace with the surface. There have also been advances in determinations of temperatures over the past 1,000 years showing a cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) but essentially the same warming during medieval times (not as large as recent warming). The recent uproar over the so-called "hockey stick" temperature determination is much overblown since at least seven other groups have made relatively independent determinations of northern hemisphere temperatures over the same time period and derived essentially the same results. They differ on how cold the LIA was but essentially agree with the Mann's hockey stick result that the Medieval Warm Period was not as warm as the last 25 years. The question of the sun's influence on climate continues to generate controversy. It appears there is a growing consensus that, while the sun was a major factor in earlier temperature variations, it is incapable of having caused observed warming in the past quarter century or so. However, this conclusion is being challenged by differing interpretations of satellite observations of Total Solar Insolation (TSI). Different satellites give different estimates of TSI during the 1996-7 solar activity minimum. A recent study using the larger TSI satellite interpretation indicates a stronger role for the sun, and until there is agreement on TSI at solar minimum, we caution completely disregarding the sun as a significant factor in recent warming. Computer models continue to improve and, while they still do not do a satisfactory job of predicting regional changes, their simulations of global aspects of climate change and of individual forcings are increasingly reliable. In addition to these four areas, the past five years have seen advances in our understanding of many other aspects of climate change--from albedo changes due to land use to the dynamics of glacier movement. However, these more are of second order importance and will only be treated very briefly. The big news since CFK03 is the first of these, the collapse of the climate critics' last real bastion, namely that satellites and radiosondes show no significant warming in the past quarter century. Figuratively speaking, this was the center pole that held up the critics' entire "tent." Their argument was that, if there had been little warming in the past 25 years or so, then what warming was observed would have been within the range of natural variations with solar forcing as the major player. Further, the models would have been shown to be unreliable since they were predicting warming that was not happening. But now both satellite and in-situ radiosonde observations have been shown to corroborate both the surface observations of warming and the model predictions. Thus, while uncertainties still remain, we are now seeing a coherent picture in which past climate variations, solar and other forcings, model predictions and other indicators such as glacier recession all point to a human-induced warming that needs to be considered carefully. A final topic touched on briefly here is the new understanding of the phenomenon called "global dimming." Several sets of observations of the sun's total radiation at the surface have shown that there has been a reduction in sunlight reaching it. This has been related to the scattering of sunlight by aerosols and has led to a better quantification of the possibility that cleaning up our atmospheric pollution will lead to greater global warming. Adding all these advances together, there is a growing consensus that the 21st century will indeed see some 2 degrees C (3.5 degrees F) or more in additional warming. This is corroborated in the new IPCC Assessment, an early release of which is touched on very briefly here.}, }
@article {pmid17367021, year = {2007}, author = {Keppler, F and Röckmann, T}, title = {Methane, plants and climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {296}, number = {2}, pages = {40-45}, pmid = {17367021}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {Air/analysis ; Bacteria/metabolism ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Mass Media ; Methane/analysis/*biosynthesis ; Plant Leaves/metabolism ; Plants/*metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid17363652, year = {2007}, author = {Truffer, M and Fahnestock, M}, title = {Climate change. Rethinking ice sheet time scales.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5818}, pages = {1508-1510}, doi = {10.1126/science.1140469}, pmid = {17363652}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17363648, year = {2007}, author = {Vaughan, DG and Arthern, R}, title = {Climate change. Why is it hard to predict the future of ice sheets?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5818}, pages = {1503-1504}, doi = {10.1126/science.1141111}, pmid = {17363648}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17363636, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Is a thinning haze unveiling the real global warming?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5818}, pages = {1480}, doi = {10.1126/science.315.5818.1480}, pmid = {17363636}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17360858, year = {2007}, author = {Epstein, PR}, title = {Chikungunya Fever resurgence and global warming.}, journal = {The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene}, volume = {76}, number = {3}, pages = {403-404}, pmid = {17360858}, issn = {0002-9637}, mesh = {Alphavirus Infections/*etiology ; *Chikungunya virus ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid17360373, year = {2007}, author = {Donner, SD and Knutson, TR and Oppenheimer, M}, title = {Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {104}, number = {13}, pages = {5483-5488}, pmid = {17360373}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*metabolism/*physiology ; Caribbean Region ; Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Eukaryota/*physiology ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; Symbiosis/physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Episodes of mass coral bleaching around the world in recent decades have been attributed to periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures. In 2005, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic that may have contributed to the strong hurricane season caused widespread coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean. Here, we use two global climate models to evaluate the contribution of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing to the thermal stress that caused the 2005 coral bleaching event. Historical temperature data and simulations for the 1870-2000 period show that the observed warming in the region is unlikely to be due to unforced climate variability alone. Simulation of background climate variability suggests that anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of occurrence of significant thermal stress events for corals in this region by an order of magnitude. Under scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, mass coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean may become a biannual event in 20-30 years. However, if corals and their symbionts can adapt by 1-1.5 degrees C, such mass bleaching events may not begin to recur at potentially harmful intervals until the latter half of the century. The delay could enable more time to alter the path of greenhouse gas emissions, although long-term "committed warming" even after stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) levels may still represent an additional long-term threat to corals.}, }
@article {pmid17347834, year = {2007}, author = {Gosling, SN and McGregor, GR and Páldy, A}, title = {Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities part 1: model construction and validation.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {51}, number = {6}, pages = {525-540}, pmid = {17347834}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Heat Stroke/mortality ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Meteorological Concepts ; Models, Biological ; *Mortality ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T (max)) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. 'Threshold temperatures' above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in 'cooler' cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in 'warmer' cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual 'heat waves' illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature-mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature-mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).}, }
@article {pmid17347428, year = {2007}, author = {Broecker, WS}, title = {Climate change CO2 arithmetic.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5817}, pages = {1371}, doi = {10.1126/science.1139585}, pmid = {17347428}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17344965, year = {2007}, author = {Andrady, AL and Hamid, HS and Torikai, A}, title = {Effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change on materials damage.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {311-318}, doi = {10.1039/b700023e}, pmid = {17344965}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Cellulose/chemistry/radiation effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Nanostructures/chemistry ; Ozone/*analysis ; *Photochemistry ; Plastics/radiation effects ; }, abstract = {Nanoscale inorganic fillers with average particle sizes smaller by an order of magnitude or more compared to those of conventional fillers are becoming commercially available. The efficacy of these fillers used in polymer formulations and particularly their effect as photostabilizers are beginning to be investigated. These may enhance or retard photodegradation depending on the surface coating of the particles or their chemical nature. Some recent data indicate their use as effective photostabilizers in some common polymers. However, the potential deleterious interaction of the nanoscale fillers with other additives in the formulation has also been pointed out. Depending on the efficiency of stabilization and the economics of their use nanofillers may provide a useful route to UV-stabilization of plastics and rubber used outdoors. Insufficient data are available at this time to assess their potential impact on material and coatings stabilization. Organic fillers such as lignocellulose continue to be investigated for outdoor applications. Their cost advantage makes them attractive despite the somewhat reduced engineering properties of their composites. Recent reports, however, suggest the photostability of these composites to depend on the source of fiber as well as the processing techniques employed in fabricating products from them. Identification of the key determinants in terms of species, isolation and processing of polymer-wood composites is critical to developing them for long-term outdoor use. Efforts are continuing on the synthesis of new light stabilizers, particularly those based on a hindered amine light stabilizers (HALS), and on identifying synergistic combinations of known stabilizers for common thermoplastics. Variants of HALS-type stabilizers that reduce the loss of stabilizer via leaching or migration were recently reported. Studies on the permanence of the stabilizers themselves when exposed to solar UV wavelengths have also been reported in recent work. Identification of relevant mechanisms is important not only to understand the interactions of climate changes and higher UV solar environments with materials damage, but also to guide future design of light-stabilizers.}, }
@article {pmid17344964, year = {2007}, author = {Wilson, SR and Solomon, KR and Tang, X}, title = {Changes in tropospheric composition and air quality due to stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {301-310}, doi = {10.1039/b700022g}, pmid = {17344964}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Air/*analysis ; Air Pollution ; Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ozone/*analysis ; Photolysis ; }, abstract = {It is well-understood that reductions in air quality play a significant role in both environmental and human health. Interactions between ozone depletion and global climate change will significantly alter atmospheric chemistry which, in turn, will cause changes in concentrations of natural and human-made gases and aerosols. Models predict that tropospheric ozone near the surface will increase globally by up to 10 to 30 ppbv (33 to 100% increase) during the period 2000 to 2100. With the increase in the amount of the stratospheric ozone, increased transport from the stratosphere to the troposphere will result in different responses in polluted and unpolluted areas. In contrast, global changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) are not predicted to be large, except where influenced by the presence of oxidizable organic matter, such as from large-scale forest fires. Recent measurements in a relatively clean location over 5 years showed that OH concentrations can be predicted by the intensity of solar ultraviolet radiation. If this relationship is confirmed by further observations, this approach could be used to simplify assessments of air quality. Analysis of surface-level ozone observations in Antarctica suggests that there has been a significant change in the chemistry of the boundary layer of the atmosphere in this region as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion. The oxidation potential of the Antarctic boundary layer is estimated to be greater now than before the development of the ozone hole. Recent modeling studies have suggested that iodine and iodine-containing substances from natural sources, such as the ocean, may increase stratospheric ozone depletion significantly in polar regions during spring. Given the uncertainty of the fate of iodine in the stratosphere, the results may also be relevant for stratospheric ozone depletion and measurements of the influence of these substances on ozone depletion should be considered in the future. In agreement with known usage and atmospheric loss processes, tropospheric concentrations of HFC-134a, the main human-made source of trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), is increasing rapidly. As HFC-134a is a potent greenhouse gas, this increasing concentration has implications for climate change. However, the risks to humans and the environment from substances, such as TFA, produced by atmospheric degradation of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are considered minimal. Perfluoropolyethers, commonly used as industrial heat transfer fluids and proposed as chlorohydrofluorocarbon (CHFC) substitutes, show great stability to chemical degradation in the atmosphere. These substances have been suggested as substitutes for CHFCs but, as they are very persistent in the atmosphere, they may be important contributors to global warming. It is not known whether these substances will contribute significantly to global warming and its interaction with ozone depletion but they should be considered for further evaluation.}, }
@article {pmid17344963, year = {2007}, author = {Zepp, RG and Erickson, DJ and Paul, ND and Sulzberger, B}, title = {Interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {286-300}, doi = {10.1039/b700021a}, pmid = {17344963}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Animals ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Metals/*metabolism ; Oxidation-Reduction/radiation effects ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {This report assesses research on the interactions of UV radiation (280-400 nm) and global climate change with global biogeochemical cycles at the Earth's surface. The effects of UV-B (280-315 nm), which are dependent on the stratospheric ozone layer, on biogeochemical cycles are often linked to concurrent exposure to UV-A radiation (315-400 nm), which is influenced by global climate change. These interactions involving UV radiation (the combination of UV-B and UV-A) are central to the prediction and evaluation of future Earth environmental conditions. There is increasing evidence that elevated UV-B radiation has significant effects on the terrestrial biosphere with implications for the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. The cycling of carbon and inorganic nutrients such as nitrogen can be affected by UV-B-mediated changes in communities of soil organisms, probably due to the effects of UV-B radiation on plant root exudation and/or the chemistry of dead plant material falling to the soil. In arid environments direct photodegradation can play a major role in the decay of plant litter, and UV-B radiation is responsible for a significant part of this photodegradation. UV-B radiation strongly influences aquatic carbon, nitrogen, sulfur and metals cycling that affect a wide range of life processes. UV-B radiation changes the biological availability of dissolved organic matter to microorganisms, and accelerates its transformation into dissolved inorganic carbon and nitrogen, including carbon dioxide and ammonium. The coloured part of dissolved organic matter (CDOM) controls the penetration of UV radiation into water bodies, but CDOM is also photodegraded by solar UV radiation. Changes in CDOM influence the penetration of UV radiation into water bodies with major consequences for aquatic biogeochemical processes. Changes in aquatic primary productivity and decomposition due to climate-related changes in circulation and nutrient supply occur concurrently with exposure to increased UV-B radiation, and have synergistic effects on the penetration of light into aquatic ecosystems. Future changes in climate will enhance stratification of lakes and the ocean, which will intensify photodegradation of CDOM by UV radiation. The resultant increase in the transparency of water bodies may increase UV-B effects on aquatic biogeochemistry in the surface layer. Changing solar UV radiation and climate also interact to influence exchanges of trace gases, such as halocarbons (e.g., methyl bromide) which influence ozone depletion, and sulfur gases (e.g., dimethylsulfide) that oxidize to produce sulfate aerosols that cool the marine atmosphere. UV radiation affects the biological availability of iron, copper and other trace metals in aquatic environments thus potentially affecting metal toxicity and the growth of phytoplankton and other microorganisms that are involved in carbon and nitrogen cycling. Future changes in ecosystem distribution due to alterations in the physical and chemical climate interact with ozone-modulated changes in UV-B radiation. These interactions between the effects of climate change and UV-B radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic systems may partially offset the beneficial effects of an ozone recovery.}, }
@article {pmid17344962, year = {2007}, author = {Häder, DP and Kumar, HD and Smith, RC and Worrest, RC}, title = {Effects of solar UV radiation on aquatic ecosystems and interactions with climate change.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {267-285}, doi = {10.1039/b700020k}, pmid = {17344962}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Eukaryota/radiation effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Marine Biology ; Plankton/radiation effects ; Plants/radiation effects ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {Recent results continue to show the general consensus that ozone-related increases in UV-B radiation can negatively influence many aquatic species and aquatic ecosystems (e.g., lakes, rivers, marshes, oceans). Solar UV radiation penetrates to ecological significant depths in aquatic systems and can affect both marine and freshwater systems from major biomass producers (phytoplankton) to consumers (e.g., zooplankton, fish, etc.) higher in the food web. Many factors influence the depth of penetration of radiation into natural waters including dissolved organic compounds whose concentration and chemical composition are likely to be influenced by future climate and UV radiation variability. There is also considerable evidence that aquatic species utilize many mechanisms for photoprotection against excessive radiation. Often, these protective mechanisms pose conflicting selection pressures on species making UV radiation an additional stressor on the organism. It is at the ecosystem level where assessments of anthropogenic climate change and UV-related effects are interrelated and where much recent research has been directed. Several studies suggest that the influence of UV-B at the ecosystem level may be more pronounced on community and trophic level structure, and hence on subsequent biogeochemical cycles, than on biomass levels per se.}, }
@article {pmid17344961, year = {2007}, author = {Caldwell, MM and Bornman, JF and Ballaré, CL and Flint, SD and Kulandaivelu, G}, title = {Terrestrial ecosystems, increased solar ultraviolet radiation, and interactions with other climate change factors.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {252-266}, doi = {10.1039/b700019g}, pmid = {17344961}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Plants/radiation effects ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {There have been significant advances in our understanding of the effects of UV-B radiation on terrestrial ecosystems, especially in the description of mechanisms of plant response. A further area of highly interesting research emphasizes the importance of indirect UV radiation effects on plants, pathogens, herbivores, soil microbes and ecosystem processes below the surface. Although photosynthesis of higher plants and mosses is seldom affected by enhanced or reduced UV-B radiation in most field studies, effects on growth and morphology (form) of higher plants and mosses are often manifested. This can lead to small reductions in shoot production and changes in the competitive balance of different species. Fungi and bacteria are generally more sensitive to damage by UV-B radiation than are higher plants. However, the species differ in their UV-B radiation sensitivity to damage, some being affected while others may be very tolerant. This can lead to changes in species composition of microbial communities with subsequent influences on processes such as litter decomposition. Changes in plant chemical composition are commonly reported due to UV-B manipulations (either enhancement or attenuation of UV-B in sunlight) and may lead to substantial reductions in consumption of plant tissues by insects. Although sunlight does not penetrate significantly into soils, the biomass and morphology of plant root systems of plants can be modified to a much greater degree than plant shoots. Root mass can exhibit sizeable declines with more UV-B. Also, UV-B-induced changes in soil microbial communities and biomass, as well as altered populations of small invertebrates have been reported and these changes have important implications for mineral nutrient cycling in the soil. Many new developments in understanding the underlying mechanisms mediating plant response to UV-B radiation have emerged. This new information is helpful in understanding common responses of plants to UV-B radiation, such as diminished growth, acclimation responses of plants to UV-B radiation and interactions of plants with consumer organisms such as insects and plant pathogens. The response to UV-B radiation involves both the initial stimulus by solar radiation and transmission of signals within the plants. Resulting changes in gene expression induced by these signals may have elements in common with those elicited by other environmental factors, and generate overlapping functional (including acclimation) responses. Concurrent responses of terrestrial systems to the combination of enhanced UV-B radiation and other global change factors (increased temperature, CO2, available nitrogen and altered precipitation) are less well understood. Studies of individual plant responses to combinations of factors indicate that plant growth can be augmented by higher CO2 levels, yet many of the effects of UV-B radiation are usually not ameliorated by the elevated CO2. UV-B radiation often increases both plant frost tolerance and survival under extreme high temperature conditions. Conversely, extreme temperatures sometimes influence the UV-B radiation sensitivity of plants directly. Plants that endure water deficit stress effectively are also likely to be tolerant of high UV-B flux. Biologically available nitrogen is exceeding historical levels in many regions due to human activities. Studies show that plants well supplied with nitrogen are generally more sensitive to UV-B radiation. Technical issues concerning the use of biological spectral weighting functions (BSWFs) have been further elucidated. The BSWFs, which are multiplication factors assigned to different wavelengths giving an indication of their relative biological effectiveness, are critical to the proper conduct and interpretation of experiments in which organisms are exposed to UV radiation, both in the field and in controlled environment facilities. The characteristics of BSWFs vary considerably among different plant processes, such as growth, DNA damage, oxidative damage and induction of changes in secondary chemicals. Thus, use of a single BSWF for plant or ecosystem response is not appropriate. This brief review emphasizes progress since the previous report toward the understanding of solar ultraviolet radiation effects on terrestrial systems as it relates to ozone column reduction and the interaction of climate change factors.}, }
@article {pmid17344960, year = {2007}, author = {Norval, M and Cullen, AP and de Gruijl, FR and Longstreth, J and Takizawa, Y and Lucas, RM and Noonan, FP and van der Leun, JC}, title = {The effects on human health from stratospheric ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {232-251}, doi = {10.1039/b700018a}, pmid = {17344960}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Animals ; Eye/metabolism/radiation effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health ; Humans ; Ozone/*analysis ; Skin/metabolism/radiation effects ; Vitamin D/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Ozone depletion leads to an increase in the ultraviolet-B (UV-B) component (280-315 nm) of solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) reaching the surface of the Earth with important consequences for human health. Solar UVR has many harmful and some beneficial effects on individuals and, in this review, information mainly published since the previous report in 2003 (F. R. de Gruijl, J. Longstreth, M. Norval, A. P. Cullen, H. Slaper, M. L. Kripke, Y. Takizawa and J. C. van der Leun, Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2003, 2, pp. 16-28) is discussed. The eye is exposed directly to sunlight and this can result in acute or long-term damage. Studying how UV-B interacts with the surface and internal structures of the eye has led to a further understanding of the location and pathogenesis of a number of ocular diseases, including pterygium and cataract. The skin is also exposed directly to solar UVR, and the development of skin cancer is the main adverse health outcome of excessive UVR exposure. Skin cancer is the most common form of malignancy amongst fair-skinned people, and its incidence has increased markedly in recent decades. Projections consistently indicate a further doubling in the next ten years. It is recognised that genetic factors in addition to those controlling pigment variation can modulate the response of an individual to UVR. Several of the genetic factors affecting susceptibility to the development of squamous cell carcinoma, basal cell carcinoma and melanoma have been identified. Exposure to solar UVR down-regulates immune responses, in the skin and systemically, by a combination of mechanisms including the generation of particularly potent subsets of T regulatory cells. Such immunosuppression is known to be a crucial factor in the generation of skin cancers. Apart from a detrimental effect on infections caused by some members of the herpesvirus and papillomavirus families, the impact of UV-induced immunosuppression on other microbial diseases and vaccination efficacy is not clear. One important beneficial effect of solar UV-B is its contribution to the cutaneous synthesis of vitamin D, recognised to be a crucial hormone for bone health and for other aspects of general health. There is accumulating evidence that UVR exposure, either directly or via stimulation of vitamin D production, has protective effects on the development of some autoimmune diseases, including multiple sclerosis and type 1 diabetes. Adequate vitamin D may also be protective for the development of several internal cancers and infections. Difficulties associated with balancing the positive effects of vitamin D with the negative effects of too much exposure to solar UV-B are considered. Various strategies that can be adopted by the individual to protect against excessive exposure of the eye or the skin to sunlight are suggested. Finally, possible interactions between ozone depletion and climate warming are outlined briefly, as well as how these might influence human behaviour with regard to sun exposure.}, }
@article {pmid17344958, year = {2007}, author = {Andrady, AL and Aucamp, PJ and Bais, AF and Ballaré, CL and Bjorn, LO and Bornman, JF and Caldwell, MM and Cullen, AP and de Gruijl, FR and Erickson, DJ and Flint, SD and Häder, DP and Hamid, HS and Ilyas, M and Kulandaivelu, G and Kumar, HD and McKenzie, RL and Longstreth, J and Lucas, RM and Noonan, FP and Norval, M and Paul, ND and Smith, RC and Soloman, KR and Sulzberger, B and Takizawa, Y and Tang, X and Torikai, A and van der Leun, JC and Wilson, SR and Worrest, RC and Zepp, RG}, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion: 2006 assessment: interactions of ozone depletion and climate change. Executive summary.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {212-217}, doi = {10.1039/b700050m}, pmid = {17344958}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; *Ecosystem ; Eye/radiation effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health ; Humans ; Marine Biology ; Metals/metabolism/radiation effects ; Ozone/*analysis ; Plastics/radiation effects ; Skin Neoplasms/etiology ; Time Factors ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid17332390, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Pollutant hazes extend their climate-changing reach.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5816}, pages = {1217}, doi = {10.1126/science.315.5816.1217}, pmid = {17332390}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17330460, year = {2006}, author = {Li, F and Zhou, G and Cao, M}, title = {[Responses of Larix gmelinii geographical distribution to future climate change: a simulation study].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {17}, number = {12}, pages = {2255-2260}, pmid = {17330460}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate ; *Computer Simulation ; Geography ; Larix/*growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Linear Models ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {With warmth index, coldness index, humidity index, mean annual precipitation, minimum temperature in January, and maximum temperature in July as environmental variables, and by using Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Stepwise Generalized Linear Model (SGLM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM), and Classification and Regression Tree (CART), this paper simulated the geographical distribution of Larix gemelinii under the conditions of future climate change. Cohen's Kappa and the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve were used to evaluate the performance of the models, and the most suitable model was selected to predict the geographical distribution. The results showed that all the test models except GLM could simulate the geographical distribution of L. gmelinii very well, and GAM performed best. Climate change would result in a reduction in the suitable area of L. gmelinii by 58.1% under SRES-A2 scenario and by 66.4% under SRES-B2 scenario in 2020. The suitable area of L. gmelinii would be further reduced by 99.7% under SRES-A2 scenario and by 97.9% under SRES-B2 scenario in 2050, and completely disappeared under both scenarios in 2100.}, }
@article {pmid17330062, year = {2007}, author = {Boykoff, MT and Rajan, SR}, title = {Signals and noise. Mass-media coverage of climate change in the USA and the UK.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {207-211}, doi = {10.1038/sj.embor.7400924}, pmid = {17330062}, issn = {1469-221X}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Journalism/*trends ; Mass Media/*trends ; *Public Policy ; United Kingdom ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid17328109, year = {2007}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {Europe ramps up climate-change fears.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {17}, number = {3}, pages = {R70-1}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2007.01.034}, pmid = {17328109}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Animals, Domestic ; Climate ; Commerce ; *Ecosystem ; European Union ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid17323862, year = {2007}, author = {Stach, A and García-Mozo, H and Prieto-Baena, JC and Czarnecka-Operacz, M and Jenerowicz, D and Silny, W and Galán, C}, title = {Prevalence of Artemisia species pollinosis in western Poland: impact of climate change on aerobiological trends, 1995-2004.}, journal = {Journal of investigational allergology &amp; clinical immunology}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {39-47}, pmid = {17323862}, issn = {1018-9068}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/analysis/history/*immunology ; Allergens/analysis/history/*immunology ; *Artemisia ; Climate ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Immunoglobulin E/blood/immunology ; Poland/epidemiology ; Pollen/*immunology ; Prevalence ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/epidemiology/history/*immunology ; Skin Tests ; Weather ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Artemisia species pollen represents a major cause of allergy in Central Europe. Variations in the pollen season, the influence of climate variables and the prevalence of pollinosis to it were analyzed in Poznan, in western Poland between 1995 and 2004.<br><br>METHODS: A Hirst volumetric spore trap was used for atmospheric sampling. Pollination date trend analysis and Spearman correlation tests were performed. Skin prick tests (SPT) and allergen specific immunoglobulin (lg)E antibody measurements were performed in 676 and 524 patients, respectively.<br><br>RESULTS: The Artemisia species pollen season grew longer due to a clear advance in the starting day and only a slightly earlier end point; the peak day also came slightly earlier. Rainfall in the first fortnight of July highly influenced pollen season severity. Temperature was directly correlated with daily Artemisia species pollen levels; relative humidity was inversely correlated. Twelve percent of patients had a positive SPT reaction to Artemisia species. Their symptoms were rhinitis and conjunctivitis (15%), atopic dermatitis (15%), chronic urticaria (14.3%), bronchial asthma (2.4%), and facial and disseminated dermatitis (1.3%). Elevated specific IgE concentrations were detected in the sera of 10.1% of patients.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Artemisia species pollen is an important cause of pollinosis in western Poland. Pollen season intensity is highly influenced by rainfall in the previous weeks. Trends towards earlier season starts and longer duration, possibly caused by climate change, may have an impact on the allergic population.}, }
@article {pmid17319085, year = {2006}, author = {Guyot, M and Dickson, C and Paci, C and Furgal, C and Chan, HM}, title = {Local observations of climate change and impacts on traditional food security in two northern Aboriginal communities.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {65}, number = {5}, pages = {403-415}, doi = {10.3402/ijch.v65i5.18135}, pmid = {17319085}, issn = {1239-9736}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate ; Female ; Focus Groups ; *Food Supply ; Fresh Water ; Humans ; *Indians, North American ; Male ; Water Supply ; Weather ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: Our primary objective was to record participant observations of changes in the local environment, harvesting situations and traditional food species and to explore what impact these may have on traditional food.<br><br>STUDY DESIGN: A participatory study with 2 northern Aboriginal communities in Canada.<br><br>METHODS: Focus groups were conducted in both communities. Both specific and open-ended questions were asked, to gather information about the traditional food harvest and a qualitative analysis was conducted.<br><br>RESULTS: Members from both communities are witnessing variable changes in climate that are affecting their traditional food harvest. New species and changes in migration of species being observed by community members have the potential to affect the consumption of traditional food. Similarly, changes in water levels in and around harvesting areas are affecting access to harvest areas, which in turn affects the traditional food harvest.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Community members have been required to change their harvest mechanisms to adapt to changes in climate and ensure an adequate supply of traditional food. A strong commitment to programs that will ensure the protection of traditional food systems is necessary.}, }
@article {pmid17305860, year = {2007}, author = {Spellman, GM and Riddle, B and Klicka, J}, title = {Phylogeography of the mountain chickadee (Poecile gambeli): diversification, introgression, and expansion in response to Quaternary climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {1055-1068}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03199.x}, pmid = {17305860}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; *Climate ; DNA, Mitochondrial/chemistry ; Gene Flow ; *Genetic Variation ; Geography ; Homing Behavior ; Passeriformes/classification/*genetics/physiology ; *Phylogeny ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; United States ; }, abstract = {Since the late 1990s, molecular techniques have fuelled debate about the role of Pleistocene glacial cycles in structuring contemporary avian diversity in North America. The debate is still heated; however, there is widespread agreement that the Pleistocene glacial cycles forced the repeated contraction, fragmentation, and expansion of the North American biota. These demographic processes should leave genetic 'footprints' in modern descendants, suggesting that detailed population genetic studies of contemporary species provide the key to elucidating the impact of the late Quaternary (late Pleistocene-Holocene). We present an analysis of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in the mountain chickadee (Poecile gambeli) in an attempt to examine the genetic evidence of the impact of the late Quaternary glacial cycles. Phylogenetic analyses reveal two strongly supported clades of P. gambeli: an Eastern Clade (Rocky Mountains and Great Basin) and a Western Clade (Sierra Nevada and Cascades). Post-glacial introgression is apparent between these two clades in the Mono Lake region of Central California. Within the Eastern Clade there is evidence of isolation-by-distance in the Rocky Mountain populations, and of limited gene flow into and around the Great Basin. Coalescent analysis of genetic variation in the Western Clade indicates that northern (Sierra Nevada/Cascades) and southern (Transverse/Peninsular Ranges) populations have been isolated and evolving independently for nearly 60,000 years.}, }
@article {pmid17297676, year = {2007}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {Climate change rises on the 2007 agenda.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {R38-9}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2007.01.006}, pmid = {17297676}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Gastropoda ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Phaeophyceae ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid17297675, year = {2007}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {US signals threat to global warming icon.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {17}, number = {2}, pages = {R37-8}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2007.01.005}, pmid = {17297675}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {Animals ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Ice Cover ; United States ; *Ursidae ; }, }
@article {pmid17291763, year = {2007}, author = {Hughes, TP and Rodrigues, MJ and Bellwood, DR and Ceccarelli, D and Hoegh-Guldberg, O and McCook, L and Moltschaniwskyj, N and Pratchett, MS and Steneck, RS and Willis, B}, title = {Phase shifts, herbivory, and the resilience of coral reefs to climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, pages = {360-365}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2006.12.049}, pmid = {17291763}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods ; *Ecosystem ; Eukaryota/*physiology ; Fishes/*physiology ; *Food Chain ; Greenhouse Effect ; Pacific Ocean ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Queensland ; }, abstract = {Many coral reefs worldwide have undergone phase shifts to alternate, degraded assemblages because of the combined effects of over-fishing, declining water quality, and the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Here, we experimentally manipulated the density of large herbivorous fishes to test their influence on the resilience of coral assemblages in the aftermath of regional-scale bleaching in 1998, the largest coral mortality event recorded to date. The experiment was undertaken on the Great Barrier Reef, within a no-fishing reserve where coral abundances and diversity had been sharply reduced by bleaching. In control areas, where fishes were abundant, algal abundance remained low, whereas coral cover almost doubled (to 20%) over a 3 year period, primarily because of recruitment of species that had been locally extirpated by bleaching. In contrast, exclusion of large herbivorous fishes caused a dramatic explosion of macroalgae, which suppressed the fecundity, recruitment, and survival of corals. Consequently, management of fish stocks is a key component in preventing phase shifts and managing reef resilience. Importantly, local stewardship of fishing effort is a tractable goal for conservation of reefs, and this local action can also provide some insurance against larger-scale disturbances such as mass bleaching, which are impractical to manage directly.}, }
@article {pmid17289955, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. U.S. policy: a permanent sea change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5813}, pages = {756-757}, doi = {10.1126/science.315.5813.756}, pmid = {17289955}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17289954, year = {2007}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Scientists tell policymakers we're all warming the world.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5813}, pages = {754-757}, doi = {10.1126/science.315.5813.754}, pmid = {17289954}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17287795, year = {2007}, author = {Pielke, R and Prins, G and Rayner, S and Sarewitz, D}, title = {Climate change 2007: lifting the taboo on adaptation.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {445}, number = {7128}, pages = {597-598}, doi = {10.1038/445597a}, pmid = {17287795}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Disasters/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Human Activities/*trends ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology ; *Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid17287784, year = {2007}, author = {Hopkin, M}, title = {Climate change 2007: climate sceptics switch focus to economics.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {445}, number = {7128}, pages = {582-583}, doi = {10.1038/445582a}, pmid = {17287784}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid17287783, year = {2007}, author = {Odling-Smee, L}, title = {Climate change 2007: what price a cooler future?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {445}, number = {7128}, pages = {582-583}, doi = {10.1038/445582b}, pmid = {17287783}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid17287782, year = {2007}, author = {Hopkin, M}, title = {Climate change 2007: data keep flooding in.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {445}, number = {7128}, pages = {581}, doi = {10.1038/445581a}, pmid = {17287782}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Atmosphere/analysis/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Disasters/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Greenland ; Ice Cover ; Seawater/analysis ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees/metabolism ; Water Movements ; }, }
@article {pmid17287781, year = {2007}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change 2007: what we don't know about climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {445}, number = {7128}, pages = {580-581}, doi = {10.1038/445580a}, pmid = {17287781}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; *Uncertainty ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid17287780, year = {2007}, author = {}, title = {Climate change 2007: what they're saying.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {445}, number = {7128}, pages = {579}, doi = {10.1038/445579a}, pmid = {17287780}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid17283974, year = {2006}, author = {Diaz, JH}, title = {Should we be concerned about global warming?.}, journal = {The Journal of the Louisiana State Medical Society : official organ of the Louisiana State Medical Society}, volume = {158}, number = {6}, pages = {278, 280-7}, pmid = {17283974}, issn = {0024-6921}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*etiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Vectors ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, abstract = {Accurate scientific predictions of the true human health outcomes of global climate change are significantly confounded by several effect modifiers that cannot be adjusted for analytically. Nevertheless, with the documented increase in average global surface temperature of 0.6 C. since 1975, there is uniform consensus in the international scientific community that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including cyclical re-warming and the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities.}, }
@article {pmid17280045, year = {2006}, author = {Redner, S and Petersen, MR}, title = {Role of global warming on the statistics of record-breaking temperatures.}, journal = {Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics}, volume = {74}, number = {6 Pt 1}, pages = {061114}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevE.74.061114}, pmid = {17280045}, issn = {1539-3755}, mesh = {*Algorithms ; Computer Simulation ; *Data Interpretation, Statistical ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Statistical ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {We theoretically study the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using both Monte Carlo simulations and 126 years of available data from the city of Philadelphia. Using extreme statistics, we derive the number and the magnitude of record temperature events, based on the observed Gaussian daily temperature distribution in Philadelphia, as a function of the number of years of observation. We then consider the case of global warming, where the mean temperature systematically increases with time. Over the 126-year time range of observations, we argue that the current warming rate is insufficient to measurably influence the frequency of record temperature events, a conclusion that is supported by numerical simulations and by the Philadelphia data. We also study the role of correlations between temperatures on successive days and find that they do not affect the frequency or magnitude of record temperature events.}, }
@article {pmid17272240, year = {2007}, author = {Socolow, RH and Lam, SH}, title = {Good enough tools for global warming policy making.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {365}, number = {1853}, pages = {897-934}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2006.1961}, pmid = {17272240}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Atmosphere/*analysis ; Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/*chemistry ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Energy Resources/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Energy-Generating Resources/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Internationality ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; *Public Policy ; Software ; }, abstract = {We present a simple analysis of the global warming problem caused by the emissions of CO2 (a major greenhouse gas) into the atmosphere resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. We provide quantitative tools which enable policymakers and interested citizens to explore the following issues central to the global warming problem. (i) At what rate are we permitted to continue to emit CO2 after the global average atmospheric concentration has 'stabilized' at some chosen target level? The answer here provides the magnitude of the effort, measured by the necessary total reduction of today's global (annual) emissions rate to achieve stabilization. We shall see that stabilized emissions rates for all interesting stabilized concentration levels are much lower than the current emissions rate, but these small finite values are very important. (ii) Across how many years can we spread the total effort to reduce the annual CO2 emissions rate from its current high value to the above-mentioned low and stabilized target value? The answer here provides the time-scale of the total mitigation effort for any chosen atmospheric concentration target level. We confirm the common understanding that targets below a doubling of the pre-industrial concentration create great pressure to produce action immediately, while targets above double the pre-industrial level can tolerate longer periods of inaction. (iii) How much harder is the future mitigation effort, if we do not do our share of the job now? Is it a good idea to overshoot a stabilization target? The quantitative answers here provide the penalty of procrastination. For example, the mitigation task to avoid doubling the pre-industrial level is a problem that can be addressed gradually, over a period extending more than a century, if started immediately, but procrastination can turn the effort into a much more urgent task that extends over only a few decades. We also find that overshooting target levels is a bad idea. The quality of public discourse on this subject could be much enhanced if ball-park quantitative answers to these questions were more widely known.}, }
@article {pmid17258268, year = {2007}, author = {Dalla Valle, M and Codato, E and Marcomini, A}, title = {Climate change influence on POPs distribution and fate: a case study.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {67}, number = {7}, pages = {1287-1295}, doi = {10.1016/j.chemosphere.2006.12.028}, pmid = {17258268}, issn = {0045-6535}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Benzofurans/analysis ; Biodegradation, Environmental ; Chemical Phenomena ; Chemistry, Physical ; *Climate ; Environment ; Environmental Pollutants/analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Italy ; Kinetics ; Models, Statistical ; Organic Chemicals/*analysis ; Polychlorinated Biphenyls/analysis ; Polymers/analysis ; Water Pollutants, Chemical/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Climate change has the potential of affecting the behaviour and distribution of organic pollutants, including POPs. Direct effects of climate change, like temperature increase, modification of wind and precipitation patterns, sea level rise, snow and ice cover, may be very effective in altering the partitioning of POPs among the environmental compartments. Other consequences of future climate scenarios may imply the alteration of degradation rates, soil properties (and hence land use), air-particle partitioning of chemicals and so forth. A case study is here presented to illustrate the major implications of climate change on the long term at the local scale. A dynamic multimedia model was applied to selected PCB and PCDD/F congeners to simulate the effects of climate change on their distribution and fluxes over the next 50 y in the Venice Lagoon (Italy). Different climate change scenarios were tested, finding noticeable variations in POPs concentration even for minor environmental changes. PCBs and PCDFs environmental concentrations may differ by a factor two in a moderate climate change scenario, compared to a situation with stable climate over the next 50 y. However, model results also suggest that if global warming may have the potential of reducing the environmental levels of these chemicals, it would probably enhance their mobility and hence their potential for long range atmospheric transport.}, }
@article {pmid17257117, year = {2007}, author = {Carstens, BC and Knowles, LL}, title = {Shifting distributions and speciation: species divergence during rapid climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {619-627}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2006.03167.x}, pmid = {17257117}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Electron Transport Complex IV/genetics ; Gene Flow ; *Genetic Speciation ; Genetic Variation ; Grasshoppers/classification/*genetics ; History, Ancient ; Phylogeny ; Time ; }, abstract = {Questions about how shifting distributions contribute to species diversification remain virtually without answer, even though rapid climate change during the Pleistocene clearly impacted genetic variation within many species. One factor that has prevented this question from being adequately addressed is the lack of precision associated with estimates of species divergence made from a single genetic locus and without incorporating processes that are biologically important as populations diverge. Analysis of DNA sequences from multiple variable loci in a coalescent framework that (i) corrects for gene divergence pre-dating speciation, and (ii) derives divergence-time estimates without making a priori assumptions about the processes underlying patterns of incomplete lineage sorting between species (i.e. allows for the possibility of gene flow during speciation), is critical to overcoming the inherent logistical and analytical difficulties of inferring the timing and mode of speciation during the dynamic Pleistocene. Estimates of species divergence that ignore these processes, use single locus data, or do both can dramatically overestimate species divergence. For example, using a coalescent approach with data from six loci, the divergence between two species of montane Melanoplus grasshoppers is estimated at between 200,000 and 300,000 years before present, far more recently than divergence estimates made using single-locus data or without the incorporation of population-level processes. Melanoplus grasshoppers radiated in the sky islands of the Rocky Mountains, and the analysis of divergence between these species suggests that the isolation of populations in multiple glacial refugia was an important factor in promoting speciation. Furthermore, the low estimates of gene flow between the species indicate that reproductive isolation must have evolved rapidly for the incipient species boundaries to be maintained through the subsequent glacial periods and shifts in species distributions.}, }
@article {pmid17256644, year = {2006}, author = {Reist, JD and Wrona, FJ and Prowse, TD and Dempson, JB and Power, M and Köck, G and Carmichael, TJ and Sawatzky, CD and Lehtonen, H and Tallman, RF}, title = {Effects of climate change and UV radiation on fisheries for arctic freshwater and anadromous species.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {35}, number = {7}, pages = {402-410}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[402:eoccau]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {17256644}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Cold Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Fisheries ; Fishes ; Fresh Water ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Metals, Heavy ; Population Dynamics ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; Water Pollutants, Chemical ; }, abstract = {Fisheries for arctic freshwater and diadromous fish species contribute significantly to northern economies. Climate change, and to a lesser extent increased ultraviolet radiation, effects in freshwaters will have profound effects on fisheries from three perspectives: quantity of fish available, quality of fish available, and success of the fishers. Accordingly, substantive adaptation will very likely be required to conduct fisheries sustainably in the future as these effects take hold. A shift to flexible and rapidly responsive 'adaptive management' of commercial fisheries will be necessary; local land- and resource-use patterns for subsistence fisheries will change; and, the nature, management and place for many recreational fisheries will change. Overall, given the complexity and uncertainty associated with climate change and related effects on arctic freshwaters and their biota, a much more conservative approach to all aspects of fishery management will be required to ensure ecosystems and key fished species retain sufficient resiliency and capacity to meet future changes.}, }
@article {pmid17256642, year = {2006}, author = {Reist, JD and Wrona, FJ and Prowse, TD and Power, M and Dempson, JB and King, JR and Beamish, RJ}, title = {An overview of effects of climate change on selected arctic freshwater and anadromous fishes.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {35}, number = {7}, pages = {381-387}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[381:aooeoc]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {17256642}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Cold Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Fishes ; Fresh Water ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Arctic freshwater and diadromous fish species will respond to the various effects of climate change in many ways. For wide-ranging species, many of which are key components of northern aquatic ecosystems and fisheries, there is a large range of possible responses due to inter- and intra-specific variation, differences in the effects of climate drivers within ACIA regions, and differences in drivers among regions. All this diversity, coupled with limited understanding of fish responses to climate parameters generally, permits enumeration only of a range of possible responses which are developed here for selected important fishes. Accordingly, in-depth examination is required of possible effects within species within ACIA regions, as well as comparative studies across regions. Two particularly important species (Arctic char and Atlantic salmon) are examined as case studies to provide background for such studies.}, }
@article {pmid17256641, year = {2006}, author = {Reist, JD and Wrona, FJ and Prowse, TD and Power, M and Dempson, JB and Beamish, RJ and King, JR and Carmichael, TJ and Sawatzky, CD}, title = {General effects of climate change on Arctic fishes and fish populations.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {35}, number = {7}, pages = {370-380}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[370:geocco]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {17256641}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Cold Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Fishes ; Fresh Water ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Projected shifts in climate forcing variables such as temperature and precipitation are of great relevance to arctic freshwater ecosystems and biota. These will result in many direct and indirect effects upon the ecosystems and fish present therein. Shifts projected for fish populations will range from positive to negative in overall effect, differ among species and also among populations within species depending upon their biology and tolerances, and will be integrated by the fish within their local aquascapes. This results in a wide range of future possibilities for arctic freshwater and diadromous fishes. Owing to a dearth of basic knowledge regarding fish biology and habitat interactions in the north, complicated by scaling issues and uncertainty in future climate projections, only qualitative scenarios can be developed in most cases. This limits preparedness to meet challenges of climate change in the Arctic with respect to fish and fisheries.}, }
@article {pmid17256640, year = {2006}, author = {Wrona, FJ and Prowse, TD and Reist, JD and Hobbie, JE and Lévesque, LM and Vincent, WF}, title = {Climate change effects on aquatic biota, ecosystem structure and function.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {35}, number = {7}, pages = {359-369}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[359:cceoab]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {17256640}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Birds ; *Cold Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Fresh Water ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Mammals ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Climate change is projected to cause significant alterations to aquatic biogeochemical processes, (including carbon dynamics), aquatic food web structure, dynamics and biodiversity, primary and secondary production; and, affect the range, distribution and habitat quality/quantity of aquatic mammals and waterfowl. Projected enhanced permafrost thawing is very likely to increase nutrient, sediment, and carbon loadings to aquatic systems, resulting in both positive and negative effects on freshwater chemistry. Nutrient and carbon enrichment will enhance nutrient cycling and productivity, and alter the generation and consumption of carbon-based trace gases. Consequently, the status of aquatic ecosystems as carbon sinks or sources is very likely to change. Climate change will also very likely affect the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems across most of the Arctic. The magnitude, extent, and duration of the impacts and responses will be system- and location-dependent. Projected effects on aquatic mammals and waterfowl include altered migration routes and timing; a possible increase in the incidence of mortality and decreased growth and productivity from disease and/or parasites; and, probable changes in habitat suitability and timing of availability.}, }
@article {pmid17256639, year = {2006}, author = {Prowse, TD and Wrona, FJ and Reist, JD and Gibson, JJ and Hobbie, JE and Lévesque, LM and Vincent, WF}, title = {Climate change effects on hydroecology of arctic freshwater ecosystems.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {35}, number = {7}, pages = {347-358}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[347:cceoho]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {17256639}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Cold Climate ; Ecology ; *Ecosystem ; *Fresh Water ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice ; }, abstract = {In general, the arctic freshwater-terrestrial system will warm more rapidly than the global average, particularly during the autumn and winter season. The decline or loss of many cryospheric components and a shift from a nival to an increasingly pluvial system will produce numerous physical effects on freshwater ecosystems. Of particular note will be reductions in the dominance of the spring freshet and changes in the intensity of river-ice breakup. Increased evaporation/evapotranspiration due to longer ice-free seasons, higher air/water temperatures and greater transpiring vegetation along with increase infiltration because of permafrost thaw will decrease surface water levels and coverage. Loss of ice and permafrost, increased water temperatures and vegetation shifts will alter water chemistry, the general result being an increase in lotic and lentic productivity. Changes in ice and water flow/levels will lead to regime-specific increases and decreases in habitat availability/quality across the circumpolar Arctic.}, }
@article {pmid17256637, year = {2006}, author = {Prowse, TD and Wrona, FJ and Reist, JD and Hobbie, JE and Lévesque, LM and Vincent, WF}, title = {General features of the arctic relevant to climate change in freshwater ecosystems.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {35}, number = {7}, pages = {330-338}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[330:gfotar]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {17256637}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Cold Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Fresh Water ; Wetlands ; }, abstract = {Large variations exist in the size, abundance and biota of the two principal categories of freshwater ecosystems, lotic (flowing water; e.g., rivers, streams, deltas and estuaries) and lentic (standing water; lakes, ponds and wetlands) found across the circumpolar Arctic. Arctic climate, many components of which exhibit strong variations along latitudinal gradients, directly affects a range of physical, chemical and biological processes in these aquatic systems. Furthermore, arctic climate creates additional indirect ecological effects through the control of terrestrial hydrologic systems and processes, particularly those associated with cryospheric components such as permafrost, freshwater ice and snow accumulation/ablation. The ecological structure and function of arctic freshwater systems are also controlled by external processes and conditions, particularly those in the headwaters of the major arctic rivers and in the adjacent marine environment. The movement of physical, chemical and biotic components through the interlinked lentic and lotic freshwater systems are major determinants of arctic freshwater ecology.}, }
@article {pmid17255495, year = {2007}, author = {Ewert, F and Porter, JR and Rounsevell, MD}, title = {Crop models, CO2, and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5811}, pages = {459-60; author reply 459-60}, doi = {10.1126/science.315.5811.459c}, pmid = {17255495}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods ; Atmosphere ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid17255479, year = {2007}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. New Congress may be warming up to plans for capping emissions.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5811}, pages = {444}, doi = {10.1126/science.315.5811.444}, pmid = {17255479}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17251125, year = {2007}, author = {MacLeod, CD and Santos, MB and Reid, RJ and Scott, BE and Pierce, GJ}, title = {Linking sandeel consumption and the likelihood of starvation in harbour porpoises in the Scottish North Sea: could climate change mean more starving porpoises?.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {185-188}, pmid = {17251125}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Diet/*veterinary ; Ecosystem ; *Eels ; Food Chain ; Gastrointestinal Contents ; *Greenhouse Effect ; North Sea ; Phocoena/*physiology ; Scotland ; Starvation/*veterinary ; }, abstract = {Sandeels are known to be negatively affected by climate change in a number of ways. This study investigated whether these changes are affecting the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), a species which consumes sandeels. Porpoise diet was examined in spring (March-May), a critical time of year for survival when sandeels are important prey, from 1993 to 2001 to provide baseline information on the proportion of sandeels consumed. When data from spring 2002 and 2003 were compared to these baseline data, the diet was found to be substantially different, with a significant and substantially smaller proportion of sandeels being consumed in March and May. There were also differences in the number of porpoises starving between the two time periods (33% in spring 2002 and 2003 died of starvation, but only 5% in the baseline period). This suggests that a lower proportion of sandeels in the diet of porpoises in spring increases the likelihood of starvation. Therefore, we suggest that the negative effects of climate change on sandeel availability may have serious negative effects on harbour porpoise populations in the North Sea by increasing the likelihood of starvation in spring.}, }
@article {pmid17240908, year = {2006}, author = {Baray, JL and Leveau, J and Baldy, S and Jouzel, J and Keckhut, P and Bergametti, G and Ancellet, G and Bencherif, H and Cadet, B and Carleer, M and David, C and De Mazière, M and Faduilhe, D and Beekmann, SG and Goloub, P and Goutail, F and Metzger, JM and Morel, B and Pommereau, JP and Porteneuve, J and Portafaix, T and Posny, F and Robert, L and Van Roozendael, M}, title = {An instrumented station for the survey of ozone and climate change in the southern tropics.}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {8}, number = {10}, pages = {1020-1028}, doi = {10.1039/b607762e}, pmid = {17240908}, issn = {1464-0325}, mesh = {Aerosols ; Environmental Monitoring/*instrumentation ; Greenhouse Effect ; Oxidants, Photochemical/*analysis ; Ozone/*analysis ; Photometry ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The assessment of changes induced by human activities on Earth atmospheric composition and thus on global climate requires a long-term and regular survey of the stratospheric and tropospheric atmospheric layers. The objective of this paper is to describe the atmospheric observations performed continuously at Reunion Island (55.5 degrees east, 20.8 degrees south) for 15 years. The various instruments contributing to the systematic observations are described as well as the measured parameters, the accuracy and the database. The LiDAR systems give profiles of temperature, aerosols and ozone in the troposphere and stratosphere, probes give profiles of temperature, ozone and relative humidity, radiometers and spectrometers give stratospheric and tropospheric integrated columns of a variety of atmospheric trace gases. Data are included in international networks, and used for satellite validation. Moreover, some scientific activities for which this station offers exceptional opportunities are highlighted, especially air mass exchanges nearby dynamical barriers: (1) On the vertical scale through the tropical tropopause layer (stratosphere-troposphere exchange). (2) On the quasi-horizontal scale across the southern subtropical barrier separating the tropical stratospheric reservoir from mid- and high latitudes.}, }
@article {pmid17239404, year = {2007}, author = {Occhipinti-Ambrogi, A}, title = {Global change and marine communities: alien species and climate change.}, journal = {Marine pollution bulletin}, volume = {55}, number = {7-9}, pages = {342-352}, doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2006.11.014}, pmid = {17239404}, issn = {0025-326X}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Marine Biology ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special mention of the situation of the Mediterranean Sea, where so many species have been introduced recently, and where some have spread in very large quantities. An increasing effort by marine scientists is required, not only to monitor the state of the environment, but also to help predicting future changes and finding ways to mitigate or manage them.}, }
@article {pmid17234275, year = {2007}, author = {Preti, A and Lentini, G and Maugeri, M}, title = {Global warming possibly linked to an enhanced risk of suicide: data from Italy, 1974-2003.}, journal = {Journal of affective disorders}, volume = {102}, number = {1-3}, pages = {19-25}, doi = {10.1016/j.jad.2006.12.003}, pmid = {17234275}, issn = {0165-0327}, mesh = {Catchment Area, Health ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Italy/epidemiology ; Male ; Prevalence ; Public Health ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Sex Distribution ; Suicide/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The global increase in surface temperature (known as global warming) was found to impact on mortality through ill health, particularly among the elderly and in summer. This study sets out to explore the impact of global warming on suicide mortality, using data from Italy.<br><br>METHODS: Monthly data on suicide mortality and temperature were obtained for a 30-year period (from January 1974 to December 2003), and the relation between them was investigated using the Gaussian low-pass filter, linear correlation analysis and rank analysis.<br><br>RESULTS: For males, increasing anomalies in monthly average temperatures associated to a higher monthly suicide mean from May to August and, to a lower extent, in November and December. In January, on the other hand, increasing anomalies in monthly average temperatures appeared to be coupled to a lower number of suicides. For females, the links between temperature and suicides are less consistent than for males, and sometimes have a reverse sign, too.<br><br>LIMITATIONS: Data could not be analyzed according to age, since this information was not available across the whole time interval. The use of monthly data, instead of daily data (unavailable), is another major limitation of this study.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: An improvement in the ability of communities to adjust to temperature changes by implementing public health interventions may play an important part in preserving the wellness of the general population, and also in limiting the worst consequences of suicidal behaviour.}, }
@article {pmid17230182, year = {2007}, author = {Overpeck, JT and Cole, JE}, title = {Climate change: lessons from a distant monsoon.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {445}, number = {7125}, pages = {270-271}, doi = {10.1038/445270a}, pmid = {17230182}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, Ancient ; Indian Ocean ; Indonesia ; *Rain ; Seasons ; Seawater/analysis ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; *Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid17222127, year = {2007}, author = {Galperin, MY}, title = {Using archaeal genomics to fight global warming and clostridia to fight cancer.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {279-286}, doi = {10.1111/j.1462-2920.2006.01223.x}, pmid = {17222127}, issn = {1462-2912}, support = {//Intramural NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Bacteria/genetics ; Clostridium/*genetics/physiology ; *Genome, Archaeal ; Genome, Bacterial ; *Genomics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Methane/biosynthesis ; Methanosarcinales/*genetics/metabolism ; Neoplasms/*therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid17218690, year = {2007}, author = {Turone, F}, title = {Italian authorities deny that climate change has brought malaria back to its shores.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {334}, number = {7584}, pages = {65}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.39091.600938.DB}, pmid = {17218690}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; Malaria/*epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid17210030, year = {2007}, author = {Truong, C and Palmé, AE and Felber, F}, title = {Recent invasion of the mountain birch Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa above the treeline due to climate change: genetic and ecological study in northern Sweden.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {369-380}, doi = {10.1111/j.1420-9101.2006.01190.x}, pmid = {17210030}, issn = {1010-061X}, mesh = {Age Factors ; *Altitude ; Betula/genetics/*physiology ; *Demography ; *Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Population Dynamics ; Sweden ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Mountain birch, Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa, forms the treeline in northern Sweden. A recent shift in the range of the species associated with an elevation of the treeline is commonly attributed to climate warming. Using microsatellite markers, we explored the genetic structure of populations along an altitudinal gradient close to the treeline. Low genetic differentiation was found between populations, whereas high genetic diversity was maintained within populations. High level of gene flow compensated for possible losses of genetic diversity at higher elevations and dissipated the founding effect of newly established populations above the treeline. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed low spatial genetic structure within populations because of extensive gene flow. At the treeline, significant genetic structure within the juvenile age class at small distances did not persist in the adult age class, indicating recent expansion of young recruits due to the warming of the climate. Finally, seedling performance above the treeline was positively correlated with parameters related to temperature. These data confirm the high migration potential of the species in response to fluctuating environmental conditions and indicate that it is now invading higher altitudes due to the recent warming of the climate.}, }
@article {pmid17210028, year = {2007}, author = {Van Dijk, H and Hautekèete, N}, title = {Long day plants and the response to global warming: rapid evolutionary change in day length sensitivity is possible in wild beet.}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {349-357}, doi = {10.1111/j.1420-9101.2006.01192.x}, pmid = {17210028}, issn = {1010-061X}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Age Factors ; Beta vulgaris/genetics/*physiology ; Crosses, Genetic ; Flowers/*physiology ; *Genetic Variation ; Geography ; Mediterranean Region ; Models, Genetic ; *Photoperiod ; Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Day length is a key factor in flowering induction in many plant species in a seasonal environment with flowering induction usually happening at shorter day lengths in lower latitudes. Now, the climate changes systematically at a considerable speed due to global warming. As a consequence, earlier flowering will be selected for in long day plants by favouring a lower threshold for day length sensitivity, on the condition of available genetic variability. Here, we show that there is considerable genetic variation for day length sensitivity in our study species, the seabeet Beta vulgaris subsp. maritima. In the northernmost natural populations without vernalization requirement, in southwest France, the necessary day length for flowering induction could be reduced by artificial selection in <10 generations from >13 h to <11 h, the latter value corresponding to populations in the Beta-species complex from Northern Africa and the eastern part of the Mediterranean tested under the same conditions. A quantitative genetic analysis provided evidence of a gradual change without detectable major genes. Additional experiments were carried out to separate the response to photoperiod from age and energy effects. A certain effect of energy availability has been found, whereas age effects could be excluded. These results indicate a considerable potential for evolutionary change in adjusting flowering time in a changing climate.}, }
@article {pmid17209275, year = {2006}, author = {Woodruff, RE and McMichael, T and Butler, C and Hales, S}, title = {Action on climate change: the health risks of procrastinating.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {567-571}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-842x.2006.tb00788.x}, pmid = {17209275}, issn = {1326-0200}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; Dengue/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Environmental Health ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Promotion ; Humans ; Mental Disorders/epidemiology ; Mortality/*trends ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: The world's climate will continue to change because of human influence. This is expected to affect health, mostly adversely. We need to compare the projected health effects in Australia arising from differing climate change scenarios to inform greenhouse gas emission (mitigation) policy.<br><br>METHODS: We estimated health effects in Australia (heatwave mortality, dengue transmission regions) around 2100 under various greenhouse gas scenarios: "strong policy action" (efforts made now to reduce emissions) and "no policy action" (emissions continue at present high levels with no climate change-specific policies).<br><br>RESULTS: Compared with no policy action, mitigation could reduce the number of deaths caused by hot temperatures among older Australians by 4,000-7,000 a year (range reflects likely population size at 2100). Under a scenario of "no action", the zone of potential transmission of dengue fever expands 1,800 kilometres (km) south, as far as Sydney. In contrast, by markedly constraining greenhouse gas emissions now, this southward extension could be limited to 600 km (to Rockhampton). The number of displaced people within the Asia-Pacific region could increase (by orders of magnitude) under the "no action" scenario because of adverse socioecological circumstances aggravated by climate change.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Additional health effects will accrue as a result of the projected climate change throughout this century, and individuals and health systems should be prepared for some level of adaptation. However, timely and strong policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would diminish the extent and severity of estimated future health effects.}, }
@article {pmid17208170, year = {2007}, author = {van Heerwaarden, B and Hoffmann, AA}, title = {Global warming: fly populations are responding rapidly to climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {R16-8}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2006.11.035}, pmid = {17208170}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*genetics ; Animals ; *Chromosome Inversion ; Drosophila/*genetics ; Genetic Markers ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Polymorphism, Genetic ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {New studies on chromosome inversion polymorphisms in Drosophila species show that the genetic constitution of populations is responding to recent climate change and that widespread species may have the potential to undergo adaptive shifts. Genetic markers in widespread species can act as indicators of climate change on natural populations.}, }
@article {pmid17204649, year = {2007}, author = {Pörtner, HO and Knust, R}, title = {Climate change affects marine fishes through the oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5808}, pages = {95-97}, doi = {10.1126/science.1135471}, pmid = {17204649}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Aerobiosis ; Animals ; Blood Circulation ; Body Size ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; North Sea ; Oxygen/analysis/blood/*metabolism ; Oxygen Consumption ; Perciformes/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; Seasons ; Seawater/chemistry ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {A cause-and-effect understanding of climate influences on ecosystems requires evaluation of thermal limits of member species and of their ability to cope with changing temperatures. Laboratory data available for marine fish and invertebrates from various climatic regions led to the hypothesis that, as a unifying principle, a mismatch between the demand for oxygen and the capacity of oxygen supply to tissues is the first mechanism to restrict whole-animal tolerance to thermal extremes. We show in the eelpout, Zoarces viviparus, a bioindicator fish species for environmental monitoring from North and Baltic Seas (Helcom), that thermally limited oxygen delivery closely matches environmental temperatures beyond which growth performance and abundance decrease. Decrements in aerobic performance in warming seas will thus be the first process to cause extinction or relocation to cooler waters.}, }
@article {pmid17204631, year = {2007}, author = {Wang, T and Overgaard, J}, title = {Ecology. The heartbreak of adapting to global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {315}, number = {5808}, pages = {49-50}, doi = {10.1126/science.1137359}, pmid = {17204631}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Aerobiosis ; Animals ; Cardiac Output ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Heart/*physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen/analysis/blood/*metabolism ; Oxygen Consumption ; Perciformes/*physiology ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Seawater/chemistry ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid17199141, year = {2006}, author = {Schneider, SH}, title = {Climate change: do we know enough for policy action?.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {607-636}, pmid = {17199141}, issn = {1353-3452}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environment ; Environmental Monitoring/methods/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; *Policy Making ; Risk Assessment ; *Risk Management ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The climate change problem must be thought of in terms of risk, not certainty. There are many well-established elements of the problem that carry considerable confidence whereas some aspects are speculative. Therefore, the climate problem emerges not simply as a normal science research issue, but as a risk management policy debate as well. Descriptive science entails using empirical and theoretical methods to quantify the two factors that go into risk assessment: "What can happen?" and "What are the odds?" (Probability x Consequences). Policymakers should, in turn, take that information and use it to make value judgments about what is safe, what is dangerous, what is fair. To make these judgments, policymakers need to know the probabilities that experts assign to various possible outcomes in order to make risk management decisions to hedge against unsafe, dangerous and unfair outcomes. The climate debate needs to be reframed away from absolute costs--or benefits--into relative delay times to achieve specific caps or to avoid crossing specific agreed 'dangerous' climate change thresholds. Even in most optimistic scenarios, CO2 will stabilize at a much higher concentration than it has reached today, and temperature will rise accordingly. It will take even longer for sea level rise from thermal expansion and the melting of polar ice to occur, but what is most problematic is that how we handle our emissions now and in the next five decades preconditions the sustainability of the next millennium.}, }
@article {pmid17199140, year = {2006}, author = {Mégie, G}, title = {From stratospheric ozone to climate change: historical perspective on precaution and scientific responsibility.}, journal = {Science and engineering ethics}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {596-606}, doi = {10.1007/s11948-006-0060-5}, pmid = {17199140}, issn = {1353-3452}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants ; Chlorofluorocarbons ; *Environmental Monitoring/ethics/history ; *Environmental Restoration and Remediation/ethics/history ; Greenhouse Effect ; History, 20th Century ; Humans ; Ozone ; *Public Policy ; Science/*ethics ; Social Responsibility ; Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {The issue of the impact of human activities on the stratospheric ozone layer emerged in the early 1970s. But international regulations to mitigate the most serious effects were not adopted until the mid-1980s. This case holds lessons for addressing more complex environmental problems. Concepts that should inform discussion include 'latency,' 'counter-factual scenario based on the Precautionary Principle,' 'inter-generational burden sharing,' and 'estimating global costs under factual and counter-factual regulatory scenarios.' Stringent regulations were adopted when large scientific uncertainty existed, and the environmental problem would have been prevented or more rapidly mitigated, at relatively modest incremental price, but for a time delay before more rigorous Precautionary measures were implemented. Will history repeat itself in the case of climate change?}, }
@article {pmid17195993, year = {2006}, author = {Garcia-Mozo, H and Galan, C and Jato, V and Belmonte, J and de la Guardia, C and Fernandez, D and Gutierrez, M and Aira, M and Roure, J and Ruiz, L and Trigo, M and Dominguez-Vilches, E}, title = {Quercus pollen season dynamics in the Iberian peninsula: response to meteorological parameters and possible consequences of climate change.}, journal = {Annals of agricultural and environmental medicine : AAEM}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {209-224}, pmid = {17195993}, issn = {1232-1966}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/*analysis ; Allergens/*analysis ; Climate ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/prevention &amp; control ; *Pollen ; *Quercus ; Retrospective Studies ; Seasons ; Spain ; }, abstract = {The main characteristics of the Quercus pollination season were studied in 14 different localities of the Iberian Peninsula from 1992-2004. Results show that Quercus flowering season has tended to start earlier in recent years, probably due to the increased temperatures in the pre-flowering period, detected at study sites over the second half of the 20th century. A Growing Degree Days forecasting model was used, together with future meteorological data forecast using the Regional Climate Model developed by the Hadley Meteorological Centre, in order to determine the expected advance in the start of Quercus pollination in future years. At each study site, airborne pollen curves presented a similar pattern in all study years, with different peaks over the season attributable in many cases to the presence of several species. High pollen concentrations were recorded, particularly at Mediterranean sites. This study also proposes forecasting models to predict both daily pollen values and annual pollen emission. All models were externally validated using data for 2001 and 2004, with acceptable results. Finally, the impact of the highly-likely climate change on Iberian Quercus pollen concentration values was studied by applying RCM meteorological data for different future years, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2099. Results indicate that under a doubled CO(2) scenario at the end of the 21st century Quercus pollination season could start on average one month earlier and airborne pollen concentrations will increase by 50 % with respect to current levels, with higher values in Mediterranean inland areas.}, }
@article {pmid17195312, year = {2006}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {Costing climate change.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {16}, number = {23}, pages = {R971-2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2006.11.001}, pmid = {17195312}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid17193799, year = {2006}, author = {Hunt, G}, title = {Climate change and health.}, journal = {Nursing ethics}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {571-572}, doi = {10.1177/0969733006069689}, pmid = {17193799}, issn = {0969-7330}, mesh = {Canada ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Planning ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid17187919, year = {2007}, author = {Ju, WM and Chen, JM and Harvey, D and Wang, S}, title = {Future carbon balance of China's forests under climate change and increasing CO2.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {85}, number = {3}, pages = {538-562}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.04.028}, pmid = {17187919}, issn = {0301-4797}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*analysis/chemistry ; Biomass ; *Carbon/analysis/metabolism ; *Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; China ; Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; Soil/analysis ; Time Factors ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {The possible response of the carbon (C) balance of China's forests to an increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration and climate change was investigated through a series of simulations using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon (InTEC) model, which explicitly represents the effects of climate, CO(2) concentration, and nitrogen deposition on future C sequestration by forests. Two climate change scenarios (CGCM2-A2 and -B2) were used to drive the model. Simulations showed that China's forests were a C sink in the 1990 s, averaging 189 Tg C yr(-1) (about 13% of the global total). This sink peaks around 2020 and then gradually declines to 33.5 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100 without climate and CO(2) changes. Effects of pure climate change of CGCM2-A2 and -B2 without allowing CO(2) effects on C assimilation in plants might reduce the average net primary productivity (NPP) of China's forests by 29% and 18% during 2091-2100, respectively. Total soil C stocks might decrease by 16% and 11% during this period. China's forests might broadly act as C sources during 2091-2100, with values of about 50 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) under the moderate warming of CGCM2-B2 and 50-200 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) under the warmer scenario of CGCM2-A2. An increase in CO(2) might broadly increase future C sequestration of China's forests. However, this CO(2) fertilization effect might decline with time. The CO(2) fertilization effects on NPP by the end of this century are 349.6 and 241.7 Tg C yr(-1) under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. These effects increase by 199.1 and 126.6 Tg C yr(-1) in the first 50 years, and thereafter, by 150.5 and 115.1 Tg C yr(-1) in the second 50 years under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. Under a CO(2) increase without climate change, the majority of China's forests would be C sinks during 2091-2100, ranging from 0 to 100 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). The positive effect of CO(2) fertilization on NPP and net ecosystem productivity would be exceeded by the negative effect of climate change after 2050. Under the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario and with direct CO(2) effects, China's forests may be a small C source of 7.6 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100. Most forests act as C sources of 0-40 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). Under the CGCM2-B2 climate scenario and with direct CO(2) effects, China's forests might be a small C sink of 10.5 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100, with C sequestration of most forests ranging from 0 to 40 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). Stand age structure plays a more dominant role in determining future C sequestration than CO(2) and climate change. The prediction of future C sequestration of China's forests is very sensitive to the Q(10) value used to estimate maintenance respiration and to soil water availability and less sensitive to N deposition scenario. The results are not yet comprehensive, as no forest disturbance data were available or predicted after 2001. However, the results indicate a range of possible responses of the C balance of China's forests to various scenarios of increase in CO(2) and climate change. These results could be useful for assessing measures to mitigate climate change through reforestation.}, }
@article {pmid17185292, year = {2006}, author = {Furgal, C and Seguin, J}, title = {Climate change, health, and vulnerability in Canadian northern Aboriginal communities.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {114}, number = {12}, pages = {1964-1970}, pmid = {17185292}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Arctic Regions ; Canada ; *Climate ; Environmental Health/methods/standards ; Health Services Accessibility/standards ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Indians, North American ; Inuit ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Canada has recognized that Aboriginal and northern communities in the country face unique challenges and that there is a need to expand the assessment of vulnerabilities to climate change to include these communities. Evidence suggests that Canada's North is already experiencing significant changes in its climate--changes that are having negative impacts on the lives of Aboriginal people living in these regions. Research on climate change and health impacts in northern Canada thus far has brought together Aboriginal community members, government representatives, and researchers and is charting new territory.<br><br>METHODS AND RESULTS: In this article we review experiences from two projects that have taken a community-based dialogue approach to identifying and assessing the effects of and vulnerability to climate change and the impact on the health in two Inuit regions of the Canadian Arctic.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The results of the two case projects that we present argue for a multi-stakeholder, participatory framework for assessment that supports the necessary analysis, understanding, and enhancement of capabilities of local areas to respond and adapt to the health impacts at the local level.}, }
@article {pmid17185290, year = {2006}, author = {Casimiro, E and Calheiros, J and Santos, FD and Kovats, S}, title = {National assessment of human health effects of climate change in Portugal: approach and key findings.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {114}, number = {12}, pages = {1950-1956}, pmid = {17185290}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Climate ; Environmental Health/*statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Heat Stress Disorders/mortality ; Humans ; Portugal ; Public Health/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; Risk Factors ; Survival Rate/trends ; }, abstract = {In this study we investigated the potential impact of climate change in Portugal on heat-related mortality, air pollution-related health effects, and selected vectorborne diseases. The assessment used climate scenarios from two regional climate models for a range of future time periods. The annual heat-related death rates in Lisbon may increase from between 5.4 and 6 per 100,000 in 1980-1998 to between 8.5 and 12.1 by the 2020s and to a maximum of 29.5 by the 2050s, if no adaptations occur. The projected warmer and more variable weather may result in better dispersion of nitrogen dioxide levels in winter, whereas the higher temperatures may reduce air quality during the warmer months by increasing tropospheric ozone levels. We estimated the future risk of zoonoses using ecologic scenarios to describe future changes in vectors and parasites. Malaria and schistosomiasis, which are currently not endemic in Portugal, are more sensitive to the introduction of infected vectors than to temperature changes. Higher temperatures may increase the transmission risk of zoonoses that are currently endemic to Portugal, such as leishmaniasis, Lyme disease, and Mediterranean spotted fever.}, }
@article {pmid17185288, year = {2006}, author = {Campbell-Lendrum, D and Woodruff, R}, title = {Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {114}, number = {12}, pages = {1935-1941}, pmid = {17185288}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {*Climate ; Cost of Illness ; Disease/*economics/etiology ; Environmental Health/economics/methods/trends ; Humans ; Public Health/economics/methods/trends ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; }, abstract = {The World Health Organization has developed standardized comparative risk assessment methods for estimating aggregate disease burdens attributable to different risk factors. These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate-sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely proportional changes in the future. The comparative risk assessment approach has been used to assess the health consequences of climate change worldwide, to inform decisions on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and in a regional assessment of the Oceania region in the Pacific Ocean to provide more location-specific information relevant to local mitigation and adaptation decisions. The approach places climate change within the same criteria for epidemiologic assessment as other health risks and accounts for the size of the burden of climate-sensitive diseases rather than just proportional change, which highlights the importance of small proportional changes in diseases such as diarrhea and malnutrition that cause a large burden. These exercises help clarify important knowledge gaps such as a relatively poor understanding of the role of nonclimatic factors (socioeconomic and other) that may modify future climatic influences and a lack of empiric evidence and methods for quantifying more complex climate-health relationships, which consequently are often excluded from consideration. These exercises highlight the need for risk assessment frameworks that make the best use of traditional epidemiologic methods and that also fully consider the specific characteristics of climate change. These include the longterm and uncertain nature of the exposure and the effects on multiple physical and biotic systems that have the potential for diverse and widespread effects, including high-impact events.}, }
@article {pmid17185287, year = {2006}, author = {Ebi, KL and Kovats, RS and Menne, B}, title = {An approach for assessing human health vulnerability and public health interventions to adapt to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {114}, number = {12}, pages = {1930-1934}, pmid = {17185287}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; *Climate ; Environmental Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Public Health/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Risk Management ; }, abstract = {Assessments of the potential human health impacts of climate change are needed to inform the development of adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to lessen projected adverse impacts. We developed methods for country-level assessments to help policy makers make evidence-based decisions to increase resilience to current and future climates, and to provide information for national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The steps in an assessment should include the following: a) determine the scope of the assessment; b) describe the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; c) identify and describe current strategies, policies, and measures designed to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; d) review the health implications of the potential impacts of climate variability and change in other sectors; e) estimate the future potential health impacts using scenarios of future changes in climate, socioeconomic, and other factors; f) synthesize the results; and g) identify additional adaptation policies and measures to reduce potential negative health impacts. Key issues for ensuring that an assessment is informative, timely, and useful include stakeholder involvement, an adequate management structure, and a communication strategy.}, }
@article {pmid17179041, year = {2006}, author = {Cramer, W}, title = {Air pollution and climate change both reduce Indian rice harvests.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {103}, number = {52}, pages = {19609-19610}, pmid = {17179041}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Climate ; *Crops, Agricultural ; India ; *Oryza ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid17170274, year = {2006}, author = {Meyer, RM}, title = {Climate change hearings and policy issues.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {314}, number = {5806}, pages = {1681-1682}, doi = {10.1126/science.314.5806.1681d}, pmid = {17170274}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17168022, year = {2006}, author = {Hamann, A and Wang, T}, title = {Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in British Columbia.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {87}, number = {11}, pages = {2773-2786}, doi = {10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[2773:peocco]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {17168022}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {British Columbia ; *Climate ; Demography ; Discriminant Analysis ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Trees/*physiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {A new ecosystem-based climate envelope modeling approach was applied to assess potential climate change impacts on forest communities and tree species. Four orthogonal canonical discriminant functions were used to describe the realized climate space for British Columbia's ecosystems and to model portions of the realized niche space for tree species under current and predicted future climates. This conceptually simple model is capable of predicting species ranges at high spatial resolutions far beyond the study area, including outlying populations and southern range limits for many species. We analyzed how the realized climate space of current ecosystems changes in extent, elevation, and spatial distribution under climate change scenarios and evaluated the implications for potential tree species habitat. Tree species with their northern range limit in British Columbia gain potential habitat at a pace of at least 100 km per decade, common hardwoods appear to be generally unaffected by climate change, and some of the most important conifer species in British Columbia are expected to lose a large portion of their suitable habitat. The extent of spatial redistribution of realized climate space for ecosystems is considerable, with currently important sub-boreal and montane climate regions rapidly disappearing. Local predictions of changes to tree species frequencies were generated as a basis for systematic surveys of biological response to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid17167360, year = {2006}, author = {While, A}, title = {Climate change should matter to nurses.}, journal = {British journal of community nursing}, volume = {11}, number = {10}, pages = {454}, doi = {10.12968/bjcn.2006.11.10.21968}, pmid = {17167360}, issn = {1462-4753}, mesh = {*Attitude of Health Personnel ; Climate ; *Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Nurse's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid17151618, year = {2006}, author = {Marris, E}, title = {Bush faces rough ride over climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {444}, number = {7120}, pages = {660-661}, doi = {10.1038/444660b}, pmid = {17151618}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid17150091, year = {2006}, author = {Grace, PR and Post, WM and Hennessy, K}, title = {The potential impact of climate change on Australia's soil organic carbon resources.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {14}, pmid = {17150091}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents a significant pool of carbon within the biosphere. Climatic shifts in temperature and precipitation have a major influence on the decomposition and amount of SOC stored within an ecosystem and that released into the atmosphere. We have linked net primary production (NPP) algorithms, which include the impact of enhanced atmospheric CO2 on plant growth, to the SOCRATES terrestrial carbon model to estimate changes in SOC for the Australia continent between the years 1990 and 2100 in response to climate changes generated by the CSIRO Mark 2 Global Circulation Model (GCM).<br><br>RESULTS: We estimate organic carbon storage in the topsoil (0-10 cm) of the Australian continent in 1990 to be 8.1 Gt. This equates to 19 and 34 Gt in the top 30 and 100 cm of soil, respectively. By the year 2100, under a low emissions scenario, topsoil organic carbon stores of the continent will have increased by 0.6% (49 Mt C). Under a high emissions scenario, the Australian continent becomes a source of CO2 with a net reduction of 6.4% (518 Mt) in topsoil carbon, when compared to no climate change. This is partially offset by the predicted increase in NPP of 20.3%<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change impacts must be studied holistically, requiring integration of climate, plant, ecosystem and soil sciences. The SOCRATES terrestrial carbon cycling model provides realistic estimates of changes in SOC storage in response to climate change over the next century, and confirms the need for greater consideration of soils in assessing the full impact of climate change and the development of quantifiable mitigation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid17148347, year = {2006}, author = {Bernardo, J and Spotila, JR}, title = {Physiological constraints on organismal response to global warming: Mechanistic insights from clinally varying populations and implications for assessing endangerment.}, journal = {Biology letters}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {135-139}, pmid = {17148347}, issn = {1744-9561}, mesh = {Animals ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population ; Temperature ; Urodela/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Recent syntheses indicate that global warming affects diverse biological processes, but also highlight the potential for some species to adapt behaviourally or evolutionarily to rapid climate change. Far less attention has addressed the alternative, that organisms lacking this ability may face extinction, a fate projected to befall one-quarter of global biodiversity. This conclusion is controversial, in part because there exist few mechanistic studies that show how climate change could precipitate extinction. We provide a concrete, mechanistic example of warming as a stressor of organisms that are closely adapted to cool climates from a comparative analysis of organismal tolerance among clinally varying populations along a natural thermal gradient. We found that two montane salamanders exhibit significant metabolic depression at temperatures within the natural thermal range experienced by low and middle elevation populations. Moreover, the magnitude of depression was inversely related to native elevation, suggesting that low elevation populations are already living near the limit of their physiological tolerances. If this finding generally applies to other montane specialists, the prognosis for biodiversity loss in typically diverse montane systems is sobering. We propose that indices of warming-induced stress tolerance may provide a critical new tool for quantitative assessments of endangerment due to anthropogenic climate change across diverse species.}, }
@article {pmid17148256, year = {2007}, author = {Jonzén, N and Hedenström, A and Lundberg, P}, title = {Climate change and the optimal arrival of migratory birds.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {274}, number = {1607}, pages = {269-274}, pmid = {17148256}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate ; Competitive Behavior/physiology ; Computer Simulation ; *Models, Theoretical ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Recent climate change has sparked an interest in the timing of biological events, which is a general problem in life-history evolution. Reproduction in many organisms breeding in seasonal environments, e.g. migratory birds, is dependent on the exploitation of a short but rich food supply. If the seasonal timing of the food peak advances owing to climate change, then one would expect the bird to track those changes, hence, initiate migration and breeding earlier. However, when there is competition for territories and a risk of pre-breeding mortality, the optimal response to a shifting food distribution is no longer obvious. We develop a theoretical model to study how the optimal arrival time depends on the mean and variance of the food distribution, the degree of competition for territories and the risk of mortality. In general, the optimal shift in arrival date should never be as extreme as the shift in food peak date. Our results also show that we should expect the high variation of trends in arrival date observed among migratory birds, even if migration and information about climate change were unconstrained.}, }
@article {pmid17148254, year = {2007}, author = {Bosch, J and Carrascal, LM and Durán, L and Walker, S and Fisher, MC}, title = {Climate change and outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis in a montane area of Central Spain; is there a link?.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {274}, number = {1607}, pages = {253-260}, pmid = {17148254}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Amphibians/*microbiology ; Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; *Chytridiomycota ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; Principal Component Analysis ; Spain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Amphibian species are declining at an alarming rate on a global scale in large part owing to an infectious disease caused by the chytridiomycete fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. This disease of amphibians has recently emerged within Europe, but knowledge of its effects on amphibian assemblages remains poor. Importantly, little is known about the environmental envelope that is associated with chytridiomycosis in Europe and the potential for climate change to drive future disease dynamics. Here, we use long-term observations on amphibian population dynamics in the Peñalara Natural Park, Spain, to investigate the link between climate change and chytridiomycosis. Our analysis shows a significant association between change in local climatic variables and the occurrence of chytridiomycosis within this region. Specifically, we show that rising temperature is linked to the occurrence of chytrid-related disease, consistent with the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. We show that these local variables are driven by general circulation patterns, principally the North Atlantic Oscillation. Given that B. dendrobatidis is known to be broadly distributed across Europe, there is now an urgent need to assess the generality of our finding and determine whether climate-driven epidemics may be expected to impact on amphibian species across the wider region.}, }
@article {pmid17144360, year = {2006}, author = {Pope, J}, title = {How can global warming be traced to CO2?.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {295}, number = {6}, pages = {124}, pmid = {17144360}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid17144323, year = {2006}, author = {Wallace, D}, title = {Comment on "American exceptionalism? Similarities and differences in national attitudes toward energy policy and global warming".}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {40}, number = {21}, pages = {6865; author reply 6866}, doi = {10.1021/es0680055}, pmid = {17144323}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Attitude ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Opinion ; *Public Policy ; Science ; }, }
@article {pmid17144277, year = {2006}, author = {Suh, S}, title = {Are services better for climate change?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {40}, number = {21}, pages = {6555-6560}, doi = {10.1021/es0609351}, pmid = {17144277}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/economics ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Ecosystem ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Environment ; Environmental Monitoring/*economics/methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Statistical ; Refuse Disposal/economics ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their structure of inducement by the supply-chain networks of 480 goods and services in the United States are analyzed for 44 GHGs. Producing a dollar of a product or service generates an average of 0.36 kg of CO2 equivalent GHGs onsite, increasing to 0.83 kg when supply-chain-induced emissions are taken into account. Services produce less than 5% of total U.S. GHG emissions directly, and their direct GHG emission intensities per dollar output are much less (0.04 kg C02 equiv/dollars) than those of physical products, even when supply-chain-induced emissions are included (0.47 kg C02 equiv/dollars). When both supply-chain effects and the volume of household expenditures are taken into account, however, household consumption of services excluding electric utilities and transportation services proves to be responsible for 37.6% of total industrial GHG emissions in the United States, almost twice the amount due to household consumption of electric utility and transportation services. Given the current structure of GHG emissions, a shift to a service-oriented economy is shown to entail a decrease in GHG emission intensity per unit GDP but an increase, by necessity, in overall GHG emissions in absolute terms. The results are discussed in the context of U.S. climate change policy.}, }
@article {pmid17140641, year = {2007}, author = {Thonon, I and Klok, C}, title = {Impact of a changed inundation regime caused by climate change and floodplain rehabilitation on population viability of earthworms in a lower River Rhine floodplain.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {372}, number = {2-3}, pages = {585-594}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.10.028}, pmid = {17140641}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Disasters ; Netherlands ; Oligochaeta/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {River floodplains are dynamic and fertile ecosystems where soil invertebrates such as earthworms can reach high population densities. Earthworms are an important food source for a wide range of organisms including species under conservation such as badgers. Flooding, however, reduces earthworm numbers. Populations recover from cocoons that survive floods. If the period between two floods is too short such that cocoons cannot develop into reproductive adults, populations cannot sustain themselves. Both climate change and floodplain rehabilitation change the flooding frequency affecting earthworm populations. The present paper estimates the influence of climate change and floodplain rehabilitation on the viability of earthworm populations in a Dutch floodplain; the Afferdensche and Deestsche Waarden along the River Waal. This floodplain will be part of major river rehabilitation plans of the Dutch government. In those plans, the floodplain will experience the construction of a secondary channel and the removal of part of its minor embankment. To estimate the impact of these plans and climate change, we used a dataset of daily discharges for 1900-2003 for the River Rhine at the Dutch-German border. We perturbed this dataset to obtain two new datasets under climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2100. From the original and two projected datasets we derived the frequency distributions for the annual periods without inundations for the studied floodplain. We subsequently compared the duration of these inundation-free (dry) periods with the maturation age distribution for L. rubellus as derived from a Dynamic Energy Budget model. This comparison yielded in which parts of our study area and under which climate conditions the populations would still be viable, be able to adapt or become extinct. The results show that climate change has almost no adverse effect on earthworm viability. This is because climate change reduces the flooding frequency during the earthworms growing season. Floodplain rehabilitation, on the other hand, reduces the part of the floodplain area where populations can sustain themselves. Before rehabilitation, only 12% of the floodplain area cannot sustain a viable earthworm population. After rehabilitation, this increases to 59%, 28% of which is due to more frequent flooding. Enhanced exposure to soil contaminants may further suppress earthworm viability. This could frustrate further nature development and the viability of earthworm-dependent species such as the badger (Meles meles) or little owl (Athene noctua vidalli species), which is an objective of the river rehabilitation plans in the Netherlands.}, }
@article {pmid17138598, year = {2006}, author = {Waterston, T}, title = {Climate change--the greatest crisis for children?.}, journal = {Journal of tropical pediatrics}, volume = {52}, number = {6}, pages = {383-385}, doi = {10.1093/tropej/fml057}, pmid = {17138598}, issn = {0142-6338}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Child ; *Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid17137185, year = {2006}, author = {Barcat, JA}, title = {[Global warming, ticks, and ehrlichiosis].}, journal = {Medicina}, volume = {66}, number = {5}, pages = {489-491}, pmid = {17137185}, issn = {0025-7680}, mesh = {Anaplasma/physiology ; Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/*growth &amp; development ; Disease Reservoirs ; Dogs ; Ehrlichia/physiology ; *Ehrlichiosis/transmission/veterinary ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ticks/*growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid17129650, year = {2007}, author = {Schaub, M and Paoletti, E}, title = {XXII IUFRO World Congress, 2005 Brisbane - air pollution and climate change: a global overview of the effects on forest vegetation.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {147}, number = {3}, pages = {429}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2006.08.040}, pmid = {17129650}, issn = {0269-7491}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Climate ; Congresses as Topic ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Queensland ; Trees/*drug effects ; }, }
@article {pmid17126868, year = {2007}, author = {Huntingford, C and Hemming, D and Gash, JH and Gedney, N and Nuttall, PA}, title = {Impact of climate change on health: what is required of climate modellers?.}, journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene}, volume = {101}, number = {2}, pages = {97-103}, doi = {10.1016/j.trstmh.2006.11.001}, pmid = {17126868}, issn = {0035-9203}, mesh = {Environmental Health/standards/*trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The potential impacts of climate change on human health are significant, ranging from direct effects such as heat stress and flooding, to indirect influences including changes in disease transmission and malnutrition in response to increased competition for crop and water resources. Development agencies and policy makers tasked with implementing adaptive strategies recognize the need to plan for these impacts. However at present there is little guidance on how to prioritize their funding to best improve the resilience of vulnerable communities. Here we address this issue by arguing that closer collaboration between the climate modelling and health communities is required to provide the focused information necessary to best inform policy makers. The immediate requirement is to create multidisciplinary research teams bringing together skills in both climate and health modelling. This will enable considerable information exchange, and closer collaboration will highlight current uncertainties and hopefully routes to their reduction. We recognize that climate is only one aspect influencing the highly complex behaviour of health and disease issues. However we are optimistic that climate-health model simulations, including uncertainty bounds, will provide much needed estimates of the likely impacts of climate change on human health.}, }
@article {pmid17124293, year = {2006}, author = {Stone, R and Bohannon, J}, title = {Global warming. U.N. conference puts spotlight on reducing impact of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {314}, number = {5803}, pages = {1224-1225}, doi = {10.1126/science.314.5803.1224}, pmid = {17124293}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Developing Countries ; Ecosystem ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid17124236, year = {2006}, author = {Stevenson, WT}, title = {Doctors leading climate change is self delusion.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {333}, number = {7578}, pages = {1124}, pmid = {17124236}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Professional Practice ; }, }
@article {pmid17120628, year = {2006}, author = {Grum, M and Jørgensen, AT and Johansen, RM and Linde, JJ}, title = {The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulation.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {54}, number = {6-7}, pages = {9-15}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2006.592}, pmid = {17120628}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Cities ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Demography ; *Disasters ; *Drainage, Sanitary ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 x 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at timescales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid17120627, year = {2006}, author = {Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K}, title = {Significant climate change of extreme rainfall in Denmark.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {54}, number = {6-7}, pages = {1-8}, doi = {10.2166/wst.2006.572}, pmid = {17120627}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Climate ; Denmark ; Models, Statistical ; *Rain ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {During recent years, practitioners of urban drainage have complained that they felt that surcharging occurred more frequently. Therefore, a study was initiated focussing on the variations in extreme rainfall during the last two decades. In Denmark, a total of 41 rain gauges with a high resolution in time and volume have an observation period close to 20 years. The rainfall observed at these gauges was selected for this study. Three variables were analysed for statistically significant trends during the observation period: Maximum average 10 min intensity, maximum average 6h intensity and the total volume of individual rain events. For the 10 min maximum intensity there is a statistically significant trend towards more extreme and more frequently occurring rain storms. The trend is pronounced in the eastern part of the country and below statistically significant levels in the western part of the country. For the 6 h maximum intensity and total volume of events the trends are less pronounced. The findings are confirmed by comparison to physically based climate models and studies based on large regions.}, }
@article {pmid17110545, year = {2006}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global climate change. False alarm: Atlantic conveyor belt hasn't slowed down after all.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {314}, number = {5802}, pages = {1064}, doi = {10.1126/science.314.5802.1064a}, pmid = {17110545}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17107837, year = {2006}, author = {Tillett, T}, title = {Global warming. Clinton climate initiative heats up.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {114}, number = {11}, pages = {A638}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.114-a638b}, pmid = {17107837}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Cities ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid17099814, year = {2006}, author = {Blashki, G and Butler, CD and Brown, S}, title = {Climate change and human health--What can GPs do?.}, journal = {Australian family physician}, volume = {35}, number = {11}, pages = {909-911}, pmid = {17099814}, issn = {0300-8495}, mesh = {Australia ; *Climate ; Environmental Health ; *Family Practice ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Physicians' Offices ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {In recent months articles in the most respected peer reviewed medical journals in Australia, the USA and Britain have called for urgent action to reduce climate change. The chief scientist of the United Kingdom has described climate change as 'the most severe problem that we are facing today--more serious even than the threat of terrorism'. Yet, many of you will wonder if this is really such an urgent issue, and--even if it is--what on earth has it got to do with general practice?}, }
@article {pmid17098060, year = {2006}, author = {}, title = {Climate change preparations must focus on health disparities.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {368}, number = {9548}, pages = {1624}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69669-4}, pmid = {17098060}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Africa ; *Climate ; Health Priorities ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mortality/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid17095763, year = {2006}, author = {Stott, R and Godlee, F}, title = {What should we do about climate change? Health professionals need to act now, collectively and individually.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {333}, number = {7576}, pages = {983-984}, pmid = {17095763}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Personnel ; Health Status ; Humans ; Interprofessional Relations ; *Professional Practice ; }, }
@article {pmid17095666, year = {2006}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Atmospheric science. Global warming may be homing in on Atlantic hurricanes.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {314}, number = {5801}, pages = {910-911}, doi = {10.1126/science.314.5801.910}, pmid = {17095666}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17093436, year = {2006}, author = {Steig, EJ}, title = {Climate change: the south-north connection.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {444}, number = {7116}, pages = {152-153}, doi = {10.1038/444152a}, pmid = {17093436}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid17089658, year = {2006}, author = {Benedetti-Cecchi, L and Bertocci, I and Vaselli, S and Maggi, E}, title = {Temporal variance reverses the impact of high mean intensity of stress in climate change experiments.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {87}, number = {10}, pages = {2489-2499}, doi = {10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[2489:tvrtio]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {17089658}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Air ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; Biomass ; *Climate ; *Eukaryota ; Oceans and Seas ; *Thoracica ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Extreme climate events produce simultaneous changes to the mean and to the variance of climatic variables over ecological time scales. While several studies have investigated how ecological systems respond to changes in mean values of climate variables, the combined effects of mean and variance are poorly understood. We examined the response of low-shore assemblages of algae and invertebrates of rocky seashores in the northwest Mediterranean to factorial manipulations of mean intensity and temporal variance of aerial exposure, a type of disturbance whose intensity and temporal patterning of occurrence are predicted to change with changing climate conditions. Effects of variance were often in the opposite direction of those elicited by changes in the mean. Increasing aerial exposure at regular intervals had negative effects both on diversity of assemblages and on percent cover of filamentous and coarsely branched algae, but greater temporal variance drastically reduced these effects. The opposite was observed for the abundance of barnacles and encrusting coralline algae, where high temporal variance of aerial exposure either reversed a positive effect of mean intensity (barnacles) or caused a negative effect that did not occur under low temporal variance (encrusting algae). These results provide the first experimental evidence that changes in mean intensity and temporal variance of climatic variables affect natural assemblages of species interactively, suggesting that high temporal variance may mitigate the ecological impacts of ongoing and predicted climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid17087974, year = {2007}, author = {Brooker, RW and Travis, JM and Clark, EJ and Dytham, C}, title = {Modelling species' range shifts in a changing climate: the impacts of biotic interactions, dispersal distance and the rate of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of theoretical biology}, volume = {245}, number = {1}, pages = {59-65}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.09.033}, pmid = {17087974}, issn = {0022-5193}, mesh = {Animals ; *Behavior, Animal ; Biodiversity ; *Climate ; Competitive Behavior ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {There is an urgent need for accurate prediction of climate change impacts on species ranges. Current reliance on bioclimatic envelope approaches ignores important biological processes such as interactions and dispersal. Although much debated, it is unclear how such processes might influence range shifting. Using individual-based modelling we show that interspecific interactions and dispersal ability interact with the rate of climate change to determine range-shifting dynamics in a simulated community with two growth forms--mutualists and competitors. Interactions determine spatial arrangements of species prior to the onset of rapid climate change. These lead to space-occupancy effects that limit the rate of expansion of the fast-growing competitors but which can be overcome by increased long-distance dispersal. As the rate of climate change increases, lower levels of long-distance dispersal can drive the mutualists to extinction, demonstrating the potential for subtle process balances, non-linear dynamics and abrupt changes from species coexistence to species loss during climate change.}, }
@article {pmid17083149, year = {2006}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {Climate-change battle heats up.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {16}, number = {20}, pages = {R857-8}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2006.09.036}, pmid = {17083149}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {California ; *Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Vehicle Emissions/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid17082439, year = {2006}, author = {Doniger, DD and Herzog, AV and Lashof, DA}, title = {Climate change. An ambitious, centrist approach to global warming legislation.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {314}, number = {5800}, pages = {764-765}, doi = {10.1126/science.1131558}, pmid = {17082439}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17067023, year = {2006}, author = {Xu, Z and Chen, C}, title = {Fingerprinting global climate change and forest management within rhizosphere carbon and nutrient cycling processes.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {293-298}, doi = {10.1065/espr2006.08.340}, pmid = {17067023}, issn = {0944-1344}, mesh = {Carbon/*metabolism ; Ecosystem ; Forestry/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; Plant Roots/metabolism/microbiology ; Research ; Soil Microbiology ; Trees/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {As one of the two Principal Subject Editors for ESPR Subject Area 1 'Terrestrial Ecology and Biology / Soil and Sediments: Toxicology-related Subjects' (see pp 287-293), the senior author and his colleague, Dr Chen, present an example of sub-category 4 'Environmental studies of pesticides, air pollution, and management strategies for forestry and plant ecosystems'. Thereby, they inform the ESPR community about the new Australian research project concerning the fingerprints of global climate change (GCC) and forest management on rhizosphere carbon and nutrient cycling and, subsequently, present an overview on the GCC and forest management fingerprints.}, }
@article {pmid17064851, year = {2007}, author = {Oyugi, JO and Qiu, H and Safronetz, D}, title = {Global warming and the emergence of ancient pathogens in Canada's arctic regions.}, journal = {Medical hypotheses}, volume = {68}, number = {3}, pages = {709}, doi = {10.1016/j.mehy.2006.09.006}, pmid = {17064851}, issn = {0306-9877}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Bird Diseases/epidemiology ; Birds ; Canada ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid17063365, year = {2007}, author = {Aerts, R and Cornelissen, JH and van Logtestijn, RS and Callaghan, TV}, title = {Climate change has only a minor impact on nutrient resorption parameters in a high-latitude peatland.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {151}, number = {1}, pages = {132-139}, pmid = {17063365}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Betula/metabolism ; *Climate ; Nitrogen/analysis/*pharmacokinetics ; Plant Leaves/chemistry/*metabolism ; Rosaceae/metabolism ; Seasons ; Soil/*analysis ; Species Specificity ; Sweden ; Vaccinium/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Nutrient resorption from senescing plant tissues is an important determinant of the fitness of plant populations in nutrient-poor ecosystems, because it makes plants less dependent on current nutrient uptake. Moreover, it can have significant "afterlife" effects through its impact on litter chemistry and litter decomposability. Little is known about the effects of climate change on nutrient resorption. We studied the effects of climate change treatments (including winter snow addition, and spring and/or summer warming) on nutrient resorption of four dominant species in a nutrient-poor subarctic peatland. These species were Betula nana (woody deciduous), Vaccinium uliginosum (woody deciduous), Calamagrostis lapponica (graminoid) and Rubus chamaemorus (forb). After five years of treatments both mature and senesced leaf N concentrations showed a small but significant overall reduction in response to the climate treatments. However, the effects were species-specific. For example, in the controls the N concentration in senesced leaves of Calamagrostis (3.0+/-0.2 mg N g(-1)) was about four times lower than for Rubus (11.2+/-0.2 mg N g(-1)). There were no significant treatment effects on N resorption efficiency (% of the N pool in mature leaves that is resorbed during senescence). The nitrogen resorption efficiency of Calamagrostis (about 80%) was higher than in the other three species (about 60%). Thus, climate change has only a minor impact on nutrient resorption parameters. However, given the substantial interspecific differences in these parameters, substantial changes in plant-soil feedbacks may be expected as a result of the observed changes in the species composition of high-latitude vegetation. These changes are species-specific and thus difficult to predict.}, }
@article {pmid17061172, year = {2006}, author = {Waldrop, MP and Firestone, MK}, title = {Response of microbial community composition and function to soil climate change.}, journal = {Microbial ecology}, volume = {52}, number = {4}, pages = {716-724}, pmid = {17061172}, issn = {0095-3628}, mesh = {Bacteria/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; California ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Fatty Acids/metabolism ; Fungi/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Principal Component Analysis ; Soil/*analysis ; *Soil Microbiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Water/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Soil microbial communities mediate critical ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. How microbial communities will respond to changes in vegetation and climate, however, are not well understood. We reciprocally transplanted soil cores from under oak canopies and adjacent open grasslands in a California oak-grassland ecosystem to determine how microbial communities respond to changes in the soil environment and the potential consequences for the cycling of carbon. Every 3 months for up to 2 years, we monitored microbial community composition using phospholipid fatty acid analysis (PLFA), microbial biomass, respiration rates, microbial enzyme activities, and the activity of microbial groups by quantifying (13)C uptake from a universal substrate (pyruvate) into PLFA biomarkers. Soil in the open grassland experienced higher maximum temperatures and lower soil water content than soil under the oak canopies. Soil microbial communities in soil under oak canopies were more sensitive to environmental change than those in adjacent soil from the open grassland. Oak canopy soil communities changed rapidly when cores were transplanted into the open grassland soil environment, but grassland soil communities did not change when transplanted into the oak canopy environment. Similarly, microbial biomass, enzyme activities, and microbial respiration decreased when microbial communities were transplanted from the oak canopy soils to the grassland environment, but not when the grassland communities were transplanted to the oak canopy environment. These data support the hypothesis that microbial community composition and function is altered when microbes are exposed to new extremes in environmental conditions; that is, environmental conditions outside of their "life history" envelopes.}, }
@article {pmid17060975, year = {2004}, author = {Alley, RB}, title = {Implications of abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Transactions of the American Clinical and Climatological Association}, volume = {115}, number = {}, pages = {305-317}, pmid = {17060975}, issn = {0065-7778}, mesh = {Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Agencies ; Models, Biological ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Records of past climates contained in ice cores, ocean sediments, and other archives show that large, abrupt, widespread climate changes have occurred repeatedly in the past. These changes were especially prominent during the cooling into and warming out of the last ice age, but persisted into the modern warm interval. Changes have especially affected water availability in warm regions and temperature in cold regions, but have affected almost all climatic variables across much or all of the Earth. Impacts of climate changes are smaller if the changes are slower or more-expected. The rapidity of abrupt climate changes, together with the difficulty of predicting such changes, means that impacts on the health of humans, economies and ecosystems will be larger if abrupt climate changes occur. Most projections of future climate include only gradual changes, whereas paleoclimatic data plus models indicate that abrupt changes remain possible; thus, policy is being made based on a view of the future that may be optimistic.}, }
@article {pmid17057952, year = {2007}, author = {Paoletti, E and Bytnerowicz, A and Schaub, M}, title = {Key studies on air pollution and climate change impacts on forests: an introduction.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {128}, number = {1-3}, pages = {1-3}, pmid = {17057952}, issn = {0167-6369}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; Climate ; *Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid17056187, year = {2007}, author = {Purnak, T and Selvi, NA and Altundag, K}, title = {Global warming may increase the incidence and geographic range of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever.}, journal = {Medical hypotheses}, volume = {68}, number = {4}, pages = {924-925}, doi = {10.1016/j.mehy.2006.09.020}, pmid = {17056187}, issn = {0306-9877}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Disease Outbreaks ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hemorrhagic Fever Virus, Crimean-Congo/*metabolism ; Hemorrhagic Fever, Crimean/*epidemiology/*etiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Models, Theoretical ; }, }
@article {pmid17048334, year = {2006}, author = {Anderson, KV}, title = {Readers respond to "global warming may be a graver public health threat than nuclear war. Part 1--getting your attention".}, journal = {MedGenMed : Medscape general medicine}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {33}, pmid = {17048334}, issn = {1531-0132}, mesh = {Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Nuclear Warfare ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid17048013, year = {2007}, author = {Sommer, U and Aberle, N and Engel, A and Hansen, T and Lengfellner, K and Sandow, M and Wohlers, J and Zöllner, E and Riebesell, U}, title = {An indoor mesocosm system to study the effect of climate change on the late winter and spring succession of Baltic Sea phyto- and zooplankton.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {150}, number = {4}, pages = {655-667}, pmid = {17048013}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Animals ; Ciliophora/*growth &amp; development ; Copepoda/growth &amp; development ; Eutrophication ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Light ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Zooplankton/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {An indoor mesocosm system was set up to study the response of phytoplankton and zooplankton spring succession to winter and spring warming of sea surface temperatures. The experimental temperature regimes consisted of the decadal average of the Kiel Bight, Baltic Sea, and three elevated regimes with 2 degrees C, 4 degrees C, and 6 degrees C temperature difference from that at baseline. While the peak of the phytoplankton spring bloom was accelerated only weakly by increasing temperatures (1.4 days per degree Celsius), the subsequent biomass minimum of phytoplankton was accelerated more strongly (4.25 days per degree Celsius). Phytoplankton size structure showed a pronounced response to warming, with large phytoplankton being more dominant in the cooler mesocosms. The first seasonal ciliate peak was accelerated by 2.1 days per degree Celsius and the second one by 2.0 days per degree Celsius. The over-wintering copepod populations declined faster in the warmer mesocosm, and the appearance of nauplii was strongly accelerated by temperature (9.2 days per degree Celsius). The strong difference between the acceleration of the phytoplankton peak and the acceleration of the nauplii could be one of the "Achilles heels" of pelagic systems subject to climate change, because nauplii are the most starvation-sensitive life cycle stage of copepods and the most important food item of first-feeding fish larvae.}, }
@article {pmid17044488, year = {2006}, author = {Zhang, J and Zhao, Y and Wang, C and He, Y}, title = {[Effects of climate change on winter wheat growth and yield in North China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {17}, number = {7}, pages = {1179-1184}, pmid = {17044488}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Biomass ; China ; *Climate ; Models, Theoretical ; Seasons ; Triticum/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {With the combination of crop model and climate mode, this paper simulated and predicted the effects of climate change on the winter wheat production of North China in future 100 years. The results showed that from 2000 to 2004, the variation trend of simulated winter wheat production in North China was accordant with the measured one, and the difference of winter wheat's lifecycle and yield was not obvious. In the future 100 years, the lifecycle of winter wheat would be shortened by 8.4 days, and its yield would be decreased to different extent, with 10.1% as the average. If proper measures such as adjusting crop parameters and management measures were adopted, the decline of winter wheat yield could be mitigated effectively.}, }
@article {pmid17034915, year = {2007}, author = {Bytnerowicz, A and Omasa, K and Paoletti, E}, title = {Integrated effects of air pollution and climate change on forests: a northern hemisphere perspective.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {147}, number = {3}, pages = {438-445}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2006.08.028}, pmid = {17034915}, issn = {0269-7491}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Biodiversity ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Eutrophication/drug effects ; Oxidants, Photochemical/toxicity ; Ozone/toxicity ; Seasons ; Soil ; Trees/*drug effects/growth &amp; development ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Many air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, contribute to radiative balance, interact in the atmosphere, and affect ecosystems. The impacts on forest ecosystems have been traditionally treated separately for air pollution and climate change. However, the combined effects may significantly differ from a sum of separate effects. We review the links between air pollution and climate change and their interactive effects on northern hemisphere forests. A simultaneous addressing of the air pollution and climate change effects on forests may result in more effective research, management and monitoring as well as better integration of local, national and global environmental policies.}, }
@article {pmid17024381, year = {2007}, author = {Reading, CJ}, title = {Linking global warming to amphibian declines through its effects on female body condition and survivorship.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {151}, number = {1}, pages = {125-131}, pmid = {17024381}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Constitution/*physiology ; Bufo bufo/*physiology ; *Climate ; England ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Longitudinal Studies ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Survival Analysis ; }, abstract = {There is general consensus that climate change has contributed to the observed decline, and extinction, of many amphibian species throughout the world. However, the mechanisms of its effects remain unclear. A laboratory study in 1980-1981 in which temperate zone amphibians that were prevented from hibernating had decreased growth rates, matured at a smaller size and had increased mortality compared with those that hibernated suggested one possible mechanism. I used data from a field study of common toads (Bufo bufo) in the UK, between 1983 and 2005, to determine whether this also occurs in the field. The results demonstrated two pathways by which global warming may cause amphibian declines. First, there was a clear relationship between a decline in the body condition of female common toads and the occurrence of warmer than average years since 1983. This was paralleled by a decline in their annual survival rates with the relationship between these two declines being highly correlated. Second, there was a significant relationship between the occurrence of mild winters and a reduction in female body size, resulting in fewer eggs being laid annually. Climate warming can, therefore, act on wild temperate zone amphibians by deleteriously affecting their physiology, during and after hibernation, causing increased female mortality rates and decreased fecundity in survivors.}, }
@article {pmid17023538, year = {2006}, author = {Lensing, JR and Wise, DH}, title = {Predicted climate change alters the indirect effect of predators on an ecosystem process.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {103}, number = {42}, pages = {15502-15505}, pmid = {17023538}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Insecta/physiology ; *Predatory Behavior ; *Rain ; Soil ; Spiders/physiology ; }, abstract = {Changes in rainfall predicted to occur with global climate change will likely alter rates of leaf-litter decomposition through direct effects on primary decomposers. In a field experiment replicated at two sites, we show that altered rainfall may also change how cascading trophic interactions initiated by arthropod predators in the leaf litter indirectly influence litter decomposition. On the drier site there was no interaction between rainfall and the indirect effect of predators on decomposition. In contrast, on the moister site spiders accelerated the disappearance rate of deciduous leaf litter under low rainfall, but had no, or possibly a negative, indirect effect under high rainfall. Thus, changes resulting from the more intense hydrological cycle expected to occur with climate change will likely influence how predators indirectly affect an essential ecosystem process.}, }
@article {pmid17022477, year = {2006}, author = {Klimov, SV and Burakhanova, EA and Dubinina, IM and Alieva, GP and Sal'nikova, EB and Trunova, TI}, title = {[Morphophysiological monitoring of winter wheat at spring in connection with problem of global climate change].}, journal = {Izvestiia Akademii nauk. Seriia biologicheskaia}, volume = {}, number = {4}, pages = {448-456}, pmid = {17022477}, issn = {1026-3470}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Biomass ; Carbohydrate Metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/physiology ; *Climate ; Environment, Controlled ; Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Plant Roots/physiology ; Plant Stems/physiology ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; Triticum/*physiology ; beta-Fructofuranosidase/metabolism ; }, abstract = {Data on morphophysiological monitoring of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivar Mironovskaya 808 grown in Hoagland and Arnon solution in a greenhouse and transferred to natural conditions in March-April 2004 with the mean daily temperature of 0.6 +/- 0.7 degrees C within the exposure period of 42 days are presented. Water content, dry weight of plants and their organs, frost hardiness of plants, degree of tissue damage by frost, CO2 metabolism (photosynthesis and respiration), concentrations of sugars in tissues and proportions between different sugar forms, and activities of soluble and insoluble acid and alkaline phosphatases were monitored. Monitoring was carried out for three experimental variants simulating different microclimatic conditions in spring: after snow melting (experiment I), under ice crust (experiment II), and under snow cover (experiment III). Plants in experiments III and II demonstrated a higher water content in tissues, lower frost hardiness, higher rates of biomass loss, lower concentration of sugars and lower di- to monosaccharide ratio in tissues, and higher total invertase activity, particularly, cell wall-associated acid invertase activity. The dark respiration rates at 0 degrees C did not significantly differ between experimental variants. The photosynthetic capacity at this measurement temperature was maintained in all experimental variants being most pronounced in experiment II with the most intense photoinhibition under natural conditions. Comparison of experiments III and II with experiment I is used to discuss the negative effect of changes in certain microclimatic variables associated with global warming and leading to plant extortion and death from frost in spring.}, }
@article {pmid17015367, year = {2006}, author = {Waite, TA and Strickland, D}, title = {Climate change and the demographic demise of a hoarding bird living on the edge.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {273}, number = {1603}, pages = {2809-2813}, pmid = {17015367}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Breeding ; *Climate ; Extinction, Biological ; *Feeding Behavior ; *Nesting Behavior ; Passeriformes/*physiology ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Population declines along the lower-latitude edge of a species' range may be diagnostic of climate change. We report evidence that climate change has contributed to deteriorating reproductive success in a rapidly declining population of the grey jay (Perisoreus canadensis) at the southern edge of its range. This non-migratory bird of boreal and subalpine forest lives on permanent territories, where it hoards enormous amounts of food for winter and then breeds very early, under still-wintry conditions. We hypothesized that warmer autumns have increased the perishability of hoards and compromised subsequent breeding attempts. Our analysis confirmed that warm autumns, especially when followed by cold late winters, have led to delayed breeding and reduced reproductive success. Our findings uniquely show that weather months before the breeding season impact the timing and success of breeding. Warm autumns apparently represent hostile conditions for this species, because it relies on cold storage. Our study population may be especially vulnerable, because it is situated at the southern edge of the range, where the potential for hoard rot is most pronounced. This population's demise may signal a climate-driven range contraction through local extinctions along the trailing edge.}, }
@article {pmid17015341, year = {2006}, author = {Spottiswoode, CN and Tøttrup, AP and Coppack, T}, title = {Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {273}, number = {1605}, pages = {3023-3029}, pmid = {17015341}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; *Sexual Behavior, Animal ; }, abstract = {Global warming has led to earlier spring arrival of migratory birds, but the extent of this advancement varies greatly among species, and it remains uncertain to what degree these changes are phenotypically plastic responses or microevolutionary adaptations to changing environmental conditions. We suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation, since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection opposing sexual selection for early migration, which would predict greatest advancement in species with stronger female choice. We test this hypothesis comparatively by investigating the degree of long-term change in spring passage at two ringing stations in northern Europe in relation to a synthetic estimate of the strength of female choice, composed of degree of extra-pair paternity, relative testes size and degree of sexually dichromatic plumage colouration. We found that species with a stronger index of sexual selection have indeed advanced their date of spring passage to a greater extent. This relationship was stronger for the changes in the median passage date of the whole population than for changes in the timing of first-arriving individuals, suggesting that selection has not only acted on protandrous males. These results suggest that sexual selection may have an impact on the responses of organisms to climate change, and knowledge of a species' mating system might help to inform attempts at predicting these.}, }
@article {pmid17008498, year = {2006}, author = {Marshall, E}, title = {Climate change. Royal Society takes a shot at ExxonMobil.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {313}, number = {5795}, pages = {1871}, doi = {10.1126/science.313.5795.1871a}, pmid = {17008498}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid17006504, year = {2006}, author = {Lelieveld, J}, title = {Climate change: a nasty surprise in the greenhouse.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {443}, number = {7110}, pages = {405-406}, doi = {10.1038/443405a}, pmid = {17006504}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Bacteria/metabolism ; Biomass ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Human Activities ; Methane/*analysis/*metabolism ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid17002758, year = {2006}, author = {Saltz, D and Rubenstein, DI and White, GC}, title = {The impact of increased environmental stochasticity due to climate change on the dynamics of asiatic wild ass.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {20}, number = {5}, pages = {1402-1409}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00486.x}, pmid = {17002758}, issn = {0888-8892}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Equidae/*physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Israel ; Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Theory proposes that increased environmental stochasticity negatively impacts population viability. Thus, in addition to the directional changes predicted for weather parameters under global climate change (GCC), the increase in variance of these parameters may also have a negative effect on biodiversity. As a case study, we assessed the impact of interannual variance in precipitation on the viability of an Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) population reintroduced in Makhtesh Ramon Nature Reserve, Israel. We monitored the population from 1985 to 1999 to determine what environmental factors affect reproductive success. Annual precipitation during the year before conception, drought conditions during gestation, and population size determined reproductive success. We used the parameters derived from this model to assess population performance under various scenarios in a Leslie matrix type model with demographic and environmental stochasticity. Specifically, we used a change in the precipitation regime in our study area to formulate a GCC scenario and compared the simulated dynamics of the population with a no-change scenario. The coefficient of variation in population size under the global change scenario was 30% higher than under the no-change scenario. Minor die-offs (> or = 15%) following droughts increased extinction probability nearly 10-fold. Our results support the idea that an increase in environmental stochasticity due to GCC may, in itself, pose a significant threat to biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid16988694, year = {2006}, author = {Murray, T}, title = {Climate change: Greenland's ice on the scales.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {443}, number = {7109}, pages = {277-278}, doi = {10.1038/443277a}, pmid = {16988694}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid16981412, year = {2006}, author = {Schulte, B}, title = {A storm over warming. Are hurricanes linked to global warming?.}, journal = {U.S. news &amp; world report}, volume = {141}, number = {8}, pages = {49}, pmid = {16981412}, issn = {0041-5537}, mesh = {*Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid16977461, year = {2007}, author = {Tirok, K and Gaedke, U}, title = {The effect of irradiance, vertical mixing and temperature on spring phytoplankton dynamics under climate change: long-term observations and model analysis.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {150}, number = {4}, pages = {625-642}, pmid = {16977461}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {*Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Eukaryota/growth &amp; development ; Fresh Water ; *Light ; *Models, Biological ; Phytoplankton/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Spring algal development in deep temperate lakes is thought to be strongly influenced by surface irradiance, vertical mixing and temperature, all of which are expected to be altered by climate change. Based on long-term data from Lake Constance, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these variables on algal dynamics using descriptive statistics, multiple regression models and a process-oriented dynamic simulation model. The latter considered edible and less-edible algae and was forced by observed or anticipated irradiance, temperature and vertical mixing intensity. Unexpectedly, irradiance often dominated algal net growth rather than vertical mixing for the following reason: algal dynamics depended on algal net losses from the euphotic layer to larger depth due to vertical mixing. These losses strongly depended on the vertical algal gradient which, in turn, was determined by the mixing intensity during the previous days, thereby introducing a memory effect. This observation implied that during intense mixing that had already reduced the vertical algal gradient, net losses due to mixing were small. Consequently, even in deep Lake Constance, the reduction in primary production due to low light was often more influential than the net losses due to mixing. In the regression model, the dynamics of small, fast-growing algae was best explained by vertical mixing intensity and global irradiance, whereas those of larger algae were best explained by their biomass 1 week earlier. The simulation model additionally revealed that even in late winter grazing may represent an important loss factor during calm periods when losses due to mixing are small. The importance of losses by mixing and grazing changed rapidly as it depended on the variable mixing intensity. Higher temperature, lower global irradiance and enhanced mixing generated lower algal biomass and primary production in the dynamic simulation model. This suggests that potential consequences of climate change may partly counteract each other.}, }
@article {pmid16973861, year = {2006}, author = {Neal, L}, title = {Bias about climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {313}, number = {5793}, pages = {1573}, doi = {10.1126/science.313.5793.1573a}, pmid = {16973861}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16971947, year = {2006}, author = {Seneviratne, SI and Lüthi, D and Litschi, M and Schär, C}, title = {Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {443}, number = {7108}, pages = {205-209}, doi = {10.1038/nature05095}, pmid = {16971947}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to enhance the interannual variability of summer climate in Europe and other mid-latitude regions, potentially causing more frequent heatwaves. Climate models consistently predict an increase in the variability of summer temperatures in these areas, but the underlying mechanisms responsible for this increase remain uncertain. Here we explore these mechanisms using regional simulations of recent and future climatic conditions with and without land-atmosphere interactions. Our results indicate that the increase in summer temperature variability predicted in central and eastern Europe is mainly due to feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. Furthermore, they suggest that land-atmosphere interactions increase climate variability in this region because climatic regimes in Europe shift northwards in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, creating a new transitional climate zone with strong land-atmosphere coupling in central and eastern Europe. These findings emphasize the importance of soil-moisture-temperature feedbacks (in addition to soil-moisture-precipitation feedbacks) in influencing summer climate variability and the potential migration of climate zones with strong land-atmosphere coupling as a consequence of global warming. This highlights the crucial role of land-atmosphere interactions in future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16971922, year = {2006}, author = {Kanipe, J}, title = {Climate change: a cosmic connection.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {443}, number = {7108}, pages = {141-143}, doi = {10.1038/443141a}, pmid = {16971922}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid16968284, year = {2006}, author = {Jump, AS and Hunt, JM and Martínez-Izquierdo, JA and Peñuelas, J}, title = {Natural selection and climate change: temperature-linked spatial and temporal trends in gene frequency in Fagus sylvatica.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {3469-3480}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2006.03027.x}, pmid = {16968284}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Alleles ; DNA, Plant/chemistry/genetics ; *Ecosystem ; Fagus/*genetics/growth &amp; development ; Genetic Variation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Logistic Models ; Microsatellite Repeats/genetics ; Plant Leaves/genetics ; Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Polymorphism, Restriction Fragment Length ; *Selection, Genetic ; Spain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Rapid increases in global temperature are likely to impose strong directional selection on many plant populations, which must therefore adapt if they are to survive. Within populations, microgeographic genetic differentiation of individuals with respect to climate suggests that some populations may adapt to changing temperatures in the short-term through rapid changes in gene frequency. We used a genome scan to identify temperature-related adaptive differentiation of individuals of the tree species Fagus sylvatica. By combining molecular marker and dendrochronological data we assessed spatial and temporal variation in gene frequency at the locus identified as being under selection. We show that gene frequency at this locus varies predictably with temperature. The probability of the presence of the dominant marker allele shows a declining trend over the latter half of the 20th century, in parallel with rising temperatures in the region. Our results show that F. sylvatica populations may show some capacity for an in situ adaptive response to climate change. However as reported ongoing distributional changes demonstrate, this response is not enough to allow all populations of this species to persist in all of their current locations.}, }
@article {pmid16968275, year = {2006}, author = {Douglas, ME and Douglas, MR and Schuett, GW and Porras, LW}, title = {Evolution of rattlesnakes (Viperidae; Crotalus) in the warm deserts of western North America shaped by Neogene vicariance and Quaternary climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {3353-3374}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2006.03007.x}, pmid = {16968275}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Adenosine Triphosphatases/chemistry/genetics ; Animals ; Base Sequence ; *Biological Evolution ; Crotalus/*genetics/metabolism ; DNA/chemistry/genetics ; Desert Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Genetic Variation ; Mexico ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Phylogeny ; Polymerase Chain Reaction ; Sequence Alignment ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; United States ; }, abstract = {During Pleistocene, the Laurentide ice sheet rearranged and diversified biotic distributions in eastern North America, yet had minimal physical impact in western North America where lineage diversification is instead hypothesized to result from climatic changes. If Pleistocene climatic fluctuations impacted desert species, the latter would reflect patterns of restricted gene flow concomitant with indications of demographic bottlenecks. Accordingly, molecular evidence for refugia should be present within these distributions and for subsequent range expansions as conditions improved. We sought answers to these questions by evaluating mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences from four species of rattlesnakes [Crotalus mitchellii (speckled rattlesnake), Crotalus cerastes (sidewinder), Crotalus tigris (tiger rattlesnake), Crotalus ruber (red diamond rattlesnake)] with distributions restricted to desert regions of southwestern North America. We inferred relationships using parsimony and maximum likelihood, tested intraspecific clades for population expansions, applied an isolation-with-migration model to determine bi-directional migration rates (m) among regions, and inferred divergence times for species and clades by applying a semiparametric penalized likelihood approach to our molecular data. Evidence for significant range expansion was present in two of eight regions in two species (Crotalus mitchellii pyrrhus, C. tigris region north). Two species (C. cerastes, C. mitchellii) showed a distribution concomitant with northward displacement of Baja California from mainland México, followed by vicariant separation into subclades. Effects of Pleistocene climate fluctuations were found in the distributions of all four species. Three regional diversification patterns were identified: (i) shallow genetic diversity that resulted from Pleistocene climatic events (C. tigris, C. ruber); (ii) deep Pleistocene divisions indicating allopatric segregation of subclades within refugia (C. mitchellii, C. cerastes); and (iii) lineage diversifications that extended to Pliocene or Late Miocene (C. mitchellii, C. cerastes). Clade-diversifying and clade-constraining effects impacted the four species of rattlesnakes unequally. We found relatively high levels of molecular diversification in the two most broadly distributed species (C. mitchellii, C. cerastes), and lower levels of genetic diversification in the two species (C. tigris, C. ruber) whose ranges are relatively more restricted. Furthermore, in several cases, the distributions of subspecies were not congruent with our molecular information. We suggest regional conservation perspectives for southwestern deserts cannot rely upon subspecies as biodiversity surrogates, but must instead employ a molecular and deep historical perspective as a primary mechanism to frame biodiversity reserves within this region.}, }
@article {pmid16966082, year = {2006}, author = {Ebi, KL and Mills, DM and Smith, JB and Grambsch, A}, title = {Climate change and human health impacts in the United States: an update on the results of the U.S. national assessment.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {114}, number = {9}, pages = {1318-1324}, pmid = {16966082}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate ; Data Collection ; Demography ; *Environmental Health/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Middle Aged ; *Public Health/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; Risk Assessment ; Time Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods) , air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mortality risks for several climate-sensitive health outcomes, with the net impact uncertain. The objective of this study was to update the first HSA based on recent publications that address the potential impacts of climate variability and change in the United States for the five health outcome categories. The literature published since the first HSA supports the initial conclusions, with new data refining quantitative exposure-response relationships for several health end points, particularly for extreme heat events and air pollution. The United States continues to have a very high capacity to plan for and respond to climate change, although relatively little progress has been noted in the literature on implementing adaptive strategies and measures. Large knowledge gaps remain, resulting in a substantial need for additional research to improve our understanding of how weather and climate, both directly and indirectly, can influence human health. Filling these knowledge gaps will help better define the potential health impacts of climate change and identify specific public health adaptations to increase resilience.}, }
@article {pmid16959994, year = {2006}, author = {Araújo, MB and Rahbek, C}, title = {Ecology. How does climate change affect biodiversity?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {313}, number = {5792}, pages = {1396-1397}, doi = {10.1126/science.1131758}, pmid = {16959994}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Artificial Intelligence ; *Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate ; *Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forecasting ; *Models, Biological ; Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid16958887, year = {2006}, author = {Harley, CD and Randall Hughes, A and Hultgren, KM and Miner, BG and Sorte, CJ and Thornber, CS and Rodriguez, LF and Tomanek, L and Williams, SL}, title = {The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {228-241}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00871.x}, pmid = {16958887}, issn = {1461-0248}, support = {K12GM00679/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.}, }
@article {pmid16955873, year = {2006}, author = {Aunan, K and Fang, J and Hu, T and Seip, HM and Vennemo, H}, title = {Climate change and air quality--measures with co-benefits in China.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {40}, number = {16}, pages = {4822-4829}, doi = {10.1021/es062994k}, pmid = {16955873}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air ; Air Pollution ; Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; China ; Climate ; *Coal ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ozone ; }, }
@article {pmid16949069, year = {2007}, author = {Paz, S and Bisharat, N and Paz, E and Kidar, O and Cohen, D}, title = {Climate change and the emergence of Vibrio vulnificus disease in Israel.}, journal = {Environmental research}, volume = {103}, number = {3}, pages = {390-396}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2006.07.002}, pmid = {16949069}, issn = {0013-9351}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Israel/epidemiology ; Regression Analysis ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Vibrio Infections/*epidemiology/etiology ; *Vibrio vulnificus ; }, abstract = {In 1996, a major unexplained outbreak of systemic Vibrio vulnificus infection erupted among Israeli fish market workers. The origins of this emergent infectious disease have not been fully understood. A possible link between climate change and disease emergence is being investigated. Meteorological service data from 1981, the earliest detection and reporting of V. vulnificus for the time in Israel, to 1998 for two stations located within the main inland fish farm industry were analyzed. The 1996-1998 summers were identified as the hottest ever recorded in Israel in the previous 40 years. Time series of monthly minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures showed significant increase in the summer temperatures along the 18 years. The highest minimum temperature value was recorded in summer 1996. Lag correlation analysis revealed significant correlations between temperature values and hospital admission dates. The eruption appeared 25-30 days after the extreme heat conditions in summer 1996, at a lag of 3 weeks in summer 1997 while the results for 1998 were at a lag of less than a week. Higher significant results were detected for the daily minimum temperatures in summer 1996 compatible with the disease eruption. These findings suggest that high water temperature might have impacted the ecology of our study area and caused the emergence of the disease, as an effect of global climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16944643, year = {2006}, author = {Payet, R and Agricole, W}, title = {Climate change in the Seychelles: implications for water and coral reefs.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {182-189}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[182:ccitsi]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {16944643}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/*growth &amp; development ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environment ; Humans ; Indian Ocean ; Indian Ocean Islands ; Rain ; Seychelles ; Temperature ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The Seychelles is a small island state in the western Indian Ocean that is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This vulnerability led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 to express concern over the potential economic and social consequences that may be faced by small island states. Small island states should be prepared to adapt to such changes, especially in view of their dependence on natural resources, such as water and coral reefs, to meet basic human welfare needs. Analysis of long-term data for precipitation, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature indicated that changes are already observable in the Seychelles. The increase in dry spells that resulted in drought conditions in 1999 and the 1998 mass coral bleaching are indicative of the events that are likely to occur under future climate change. Pre-IPCC Third Assessment Report scenarios and the new SRES scenarios are compared for changes in precipitation and air surface temperature for the Seychelles. These intercomparisons indicate that the IS92 scenarios project a much warmer and wetter climate for the Seychelles than do the SRES scenarios. However, a wetter climate does not imply readily available water, but rather longer dry spells with more intense precipitation events. These observations will likely place enormous pressures on water-resources management in the Seychelles. Similarly, sea-surface temperature increases predicted by the HADCM3 model will likely trigger repeated coral-bleaching episodes, with possible coral extinctions within the Seychelles region by 2040. The cover of many coral reefs around the Seychelles have already changed, and the protection of coral-resilient areas is a critical adaptive option.}, }
@article {pmid16944642, year = {2006}, author = {Varis, O}, title = {Backyard of the rich north: the climate change-related vicious circle of the Arctic zone.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {176-181}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[176:botrnt]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {16944642}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Climate ; Cold Climate ; Demography ; Economics ; *Environment ; Environmental Pollution/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Industry/economics/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Petroleum/*economics ; }, abstract = {The Arctic zone is full of controversies, unknowns, contrasts, and challenges. The following example is enlightening. Saudi Arabia is a country that has been considered to have almost unlimited possibilities because of its enormous oil earnings. The country has US$60 thousand million purchasing power parity oil income each year for its mere 22 million inhabitants. Astonishingly, the Arctic zone's income from oil, gas, and minerals is at least as large as that of Saudi Arabia, modestly estimated, but the Arctic has less than 4 million people. Most money, however, flows away from the tundra, yet social and environmental problems remain there. A part of the side effect of consuming these resources-largely fossil fuels-returns to the Arctic in the form of greenhouse warming and all its consequences. The Arctic zone now warms at approximately double the rate of the world average.}, }
@article {pmid16944638, year = {2006}, author = {Corell, RW}, title = {Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {148-152}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[148:coccaa]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {16944638}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Ice ; Oceans and Seas ; *Transition Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.}, }
@article {pmid16941769, year = {2006}, author = {Powell, RI}, title = {Readers respond to "global warming may be a graver public health threat than nuclear war. Part 1--getting your attention".}, journal = {MedGenMed : Medscape general medicine}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {33}, pmid = {16941769}, issn = {1531-0132}, mesh = {Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Nuclear Warfare ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid16941768, year = {2006}, author = {Epstein, B}, title = {Readers respond to "global warming may be a graver public health threat than nuclear war. Part 1--getting your attention".}, journal = {MedGenMed : Medscape general medicine}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {33}, pmid = {16941768}, issn = {1531-0132}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Nuclear Warfare ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid16930462, year = {2006}, author = {Lucht, W and Schaphoff, S and Erbrecht, T and Heyder, U and Cramer, W}, title = {Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {6}, pmid = {16930462}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation. We study two scenarios of moderate and strong climate change (2.9 K and 5.3 K temperature increase over present) to investigate the spatial redistribution of major vegetation types and their carbon balance in the year 2100.<br><br>RESULTS: The world's land vegetation will be more deciduous than at present, and contain about 125 billion tons of additional carbon. While a recession of the boreal forest is simulated in some areas, along with a general expansion to the north, we do not observe a reported collapse of the central Amazonian rain forest. Rather, a decrease of biomass and a change of vegetation type occurs in its northeastern part. The ability of the terrestrial biosphere to sequester carbon from the atmosphere declines strongly in the second half of the 21st century.<br><br>CONCLUSION: Climate change will cause widespread shifts in the distribution of major vegetation functional types on all continents by the year 2100.}, }
@article {pmid16930458, year = {2006}, author = {McNeil, BI and Matear, RJ}, title = {Projected climate change impact on oceanic acidification.}, journal = {Carbon balance and management}, volume = {1}, number = {}, pages = {2}, pmid = {16930458}, issn = {1750-0680}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the ocean decreases the pH of seawater, leading to an 'acidification' which may have potential detrimental consequences on marine organisms. Ocean warming or circulation alterations induced by climate change has the potential to slowdown the rate of acidification of ocean waters by decreasing the amount of CO2 uptake by the ocean. However, a recent study showed that climate change affected the decrease in pH insignificantly. Here, we examine the sensitivity of future oceanic acidification to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model and find that ocean warming dominates the climate change feedbacks.<br><br>RESULTS: Our results show that the direct decrease in pH due to ocean warming is approximately equal to but opposite in magnitude to the indirect increase in pH associated with ocean warming (ie reduced DIC concentration of the upper ocean caused by lower solubility of CO2).<br><br>CONCLUSION: As climate change feedbacks on pH approximately cancel, future oceanic acidification will closely follow future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This suggests the only way to slowdown or mitigate the potential biological consequences of future ocean acidification is to significantly reduce fossil-fuel emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere.}, }
@article {pmid16928632, year = {2006}, author = {Berkelmans, R and van Oppen, MJ}, title = {The role of zooxanthellae in the thermal tolerance of corals: a 'nugget of hope' for coral reefs in an era of climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {273}, number = {1599}, pages = {2305-2312}, pmid = {16928632}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; Australia ; Eukaryota/*physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The ability of coral reefs to survive the projected increases in temperature due to global warming will depend largely on the ability of corals to adapt or acclimatize to increased temperature extremes over the next few decades. Many coral species are highly sensitive to temperature stress and the number of stress (bleaching) episodes has increased in recent decades. We investigated the acclimatization potential of Acropora millepora, a common and widespread Indo-Pacific hard coral species, through transplantation and experimental manipulation. We show that adult corals, at least in some circumstances, are capable of acquiring increased thermal tolerance and that the increased tolerance is a direct result of a change in the symbiont type dominating their tissues from Symbiodinium type C to D. Our data suggest that the change in symbiont type in our experiment was due to a shuffling of existing types already present in coral tissues, not through exogenous uptake from the environment. The level of increased tolerance gained by the corals changing their dominant symbiont type to D (the most thermally resistant type known) is around 1-1.5 degrees C. This is the first study to show that thermal acclimatization is causally related to symbiont type and provides new insight into the ecological advantage of corals harbouring mixed algal populations. While this increase is of huge ecological significance for many coral species, in the absence of other mechanisms of thermal acclimatization/adaptation, it may not be sufficient to survive climate change under predicted sea surface temperature scenarios over the next 100 years. However, it may be enough to 'buy time' while greenhouse reduction measures are put in place.}, }
@article {pmid16926772, year = {2006}, author = {Lawson, C}, title = {Readers respond to "global warming may be a graver public health threat than nuclear war. Part 1--getting your attention".}, journal = {MedGenMed : Medscape general medicine}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {33}, pmid = {16926772}, issn = {1531-0132}, mesh = {Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Nuclear Warfare ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid16924112, year = {2006}, author = {Scholze, M and Knorr, W and Arnell, NW and Prentice, IC}, title = {A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {103}, number = {35}, pages = {13116-13120}, pmid = {16924112}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon/analysis ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2 degrees C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2-3 degrees C, and >3 degrees C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50 degrees N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3 degrees C than for <2 degrees C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of approximately 1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3 degrees C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.}, }
@article {pmid16922312, year = {2006}, author = {Schwartz, MW and Iverson, LR and Prasad, AM and Matthews, SN and O'Connor, RJ}, title = {Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {87}, number = {7}, pages = {1611-1615}, doi = {10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[1611:peaaro]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {16922312}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Biological ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that extinction vulnerability increases with decreasing distribution size. We also found that model fit decreases with decreasing distribution size, resulting in high prediction uncertainty among narrowly distributed species. High prediction uncertainty creates a conservation dilemma in that excluding these species under-predicts extinction risk and favors mistaken inaction on global warming. By contrast, including narrow endemics results in over-predicting extinction risk and promotes mistaken inaction on behalf of individual species prematurely considered doomed to extinction.}, }
@article {pmid16915201, year = {2006}, author = {Lundberg, GD}, title = {Global warming may be a graver public health threat than nuclear war. Part 1--getting your attention.}, journal = {MedGenMed : Medscape general medicine}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {71}, pmid = {16915201}, issn = {1531-0132}, mesh = {Cause of Death ; Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Nuclear Warfare ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid16914182, year = {2006}, author = {Bloomfield, JP and Williams, RJ and Gooddy, DC and Cape, JN and Guha, P}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the fate and behaviour of pesticides in surface and groundwater--A UK perspective.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {369}, number = {1-3}, pages = {163-177}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.05.019}, pmid = {16914182}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Fresh Water ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Pesticides ; Rain ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; *Water Pollutants, Chemical ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Over the last two decades significant effort has been dedicated to understanding the fate and transport of pesticides in surface water and groundwater and to use this understanding in the development of environmental policy and regulation. However, there have been few studies that have investigated the relationships between pesticides and climate change, and where this work has been undertaken it has principally been in relation to the impacts of climate change on agricultural production rather than in the context of environmental protection. This study addresses that gap by reviewing how climate change may impact the fate and transport of pesticides in surface and groundwaters as a pre-cursor to quantitative studies. In order to structure the review, we have adopted a source-pathway-receptor approach where climate sensitivities of pesticide source terms, environmental pathways and receptors are reviewed. The main climate drivers for changing pesticide fate and behaviour are thought to be changes in rainfall seasonality and intensity and increased temperatures, but the effect of climate change on pesticide fate and transport is likely to be very variable and difficult to predict. In the long-term, indirect impacts, such as land-use change driven by changes in climate, may have a more significant effect on pesticides in surface and groundwaters than the direct impacts of climate change on pesticide fate and transport. The review focuses on climate change scenarios and case studies from the UK; however, the general conclusions can be applied more widely.}, }
@article {pmid16913874, year = {2006}, author = {Medhurst, J and Parsby, J and Linder, S and Wallin, G and Ceschia, E and Slaney, M}, title = {A whole-tree chamber system for examining tree-level physiological responses of field-grown trees to environmental variation and climate change.}, journal = {Plant, cell &amp; environment}, volume = {29}, number = {9}, pages = {1853-1869}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-3040.2006.01553.x}, pmid = {16913874}, issn = {0140-7791}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Equipment and Supplies ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Light ; Picea/*physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees ; Water/metabolism ; }, abstract = {A whole-tree chamber (WTC) system was installed at Flakaliden in northern Sweden to examine the long-term physiological responses of field-grown 40-year-old Norway spruce trees [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] to climate change. The WTCs were designed as large cuvettes to allow the net tree-level CO(2) and water fluxes to be measured on a continuous basis. A total of 12 WTCs were used to impose combinations of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, [CO(2)], and air temperature treatments. The air inside the ambient and elevated [CO(2)] WTCs was maintained at 365 and 700 micromol mol(-1), respectively. The air temperature inside the ambient temperature WTCs tracked air temperature outside the WTCs. Elevated temperatures were altered on a monthly time-step and ranged between +2.8 and +5.6 degrees C above ambient temperature. The system allowed continuous, long-term measurement of whole-tree photosynthesis, night-time respiration and transpiration. The performance of the WTCs was assessed using winter and spring data sets. The ability of the WTC system to measure tree-level physiological responses is demonstrated. All WTCs displayed a high level of control over tracking of air temperatures. The set target of 365 micromol mol(-1) in the ambient [CO(2)] chambers was too low to be maintained during winter because of tree dormancy and the high natural increase in [CO(2)] over winter at high latitudes such as the Flakaliden site. Accurate control over [CO(2)] in the ambient [CO(2)] chambers was restored during the spring and the system maintained the elevated [CO(2)] target of 700 micromol mol(-1) for both measurement periods. Air water vapour deficit (VPD) was accurately tracked in ambient temperature WTCs. However, as water vapour pressure in all 12 WTCs was maintained at the level of non-chambered (reference) air, VPD of elevated temperature WTCs was increased.}, }
@article {pmid16909675, year = {2006}, author = {Maschinski, J and Baggs, JE and Quintana-Ascencio, PF and Menges, ES}, title = {Using population viability analysis to predict the effects of climate change on the extinction risk of an endangered limestone endemic shrub, Arizona cliffrose.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {218-228}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00272.x}, pmid = {16909675}, issn = {0888-8892}, mesh = {Arizona ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Geography ; Germination ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; Population Growth ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Risk Assessment ; Rosaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Seeds/physiology ; Species Specificity ; Stochastic Processes ; }, abstract = {The threat of global warming to rare species is a growing concern, yet few studies have predicted its effects on rare populations. Using demographic data gathered in both drought and nondrought years between 1996-2003 in central Arizona upper Sonoran Desert, we modeled population viability for the federally endangered Purshia subintegra (Kearney) Henrickson (Arizona cliffrose). We used deterministic matrix projection models and stochastic models simulating weather conditions during our study, given historical weather variation and under scenarios of increased aridity. Our models suggest that the P. subintegra population in Verde Valley is slowly declining and will be at greater risk of extinction with increased aridity. Across patches at a fine spatial scale, demographic performance was associated with environmental factors. Moist sites (patches with the highest soil moisture, lowest sand content, and most northern aspects) had the highest densities, highest seedling recruitment, and highest risk of extinction over the shortest time span. Extinction risk in moist sites was exacerbated by higher variance in recruitment and mortality. Dry sites had higher cumulative adult survival and lower extinction risk but negative growth rates. Steps necessary for the conservation of the species include introductions at more northern latitudes and in situ manipulations to enhance seedling recruitment and plant survival. We demonstrate that fine spatial-scale modeling is necessary to predict where patches with highest extinction risk or potential refugia for rare species may occur Because current climate projections for the 21st century imply range shifts at rates of 300 to 500 km/century, which are beyond even exceptional examples of shifts in the fossil record of 100-150 km, it is likely that preservation of many rare species will require human intervention and a long-term commitment. Global warming conditions are likely to reduce the carrying capacity of many rare species' habitats.}, }
@article {pmid16909561, year = {2006}, author = {Root, TL and Schneider, SH}, title = {Conservation and climate change: the challenges ahead.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {20}, number = {3}, pages = {706-708}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00465.x}, pmid = {16909561}, issn = {0888-8892}, mesh = {*Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Research ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid16906647, year = {2006}, author = {Pagani, M and Pedentchouk, N and Huber, M and Sluijs, A and Schouten, S and Brinkhuis, H and Damsté, JS and Dickens, GR and , }, title = {Arctic hydrology during global warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {442}, number = {7103}, pages = {671-675}, doi = {10.1038/nature05043}, pmid = {16906647}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Alkanes/metabolism ; Arctic Regions ; Biomarkers/analysis ; Calcium Carbonate/analysis/metabolism ; Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Isotopes ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, Ancient ; Humidity ; Hydrogen/analysis/chemistry ; Marine Biology ; Oceans and Seas ; Plants/metabolism ; Rain ; Seawater/*analysis/*chemistry ; Sodium Chloride/analysis ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum represents a period of rapid, extreme global warming 55 million years ago, superimposed on an already warm world. This warming is associated with a severe shoaling of the ocean calcite compensation depth and a >2.5 per mil negative carbon isotope excursion in marine and soil carbonates. Together these observations indicate a massive release of 13C-depleted carbon and greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Recently, sediments were recovered from the central Arctic Ocean, providing the first opportunity to evaluate the environmental response at the North Pole at this time. Here we present stable hydrogen and carbon isotope measurements of terrestrial-plant- and aquatic-derived n-alkanes that record changes in hydrology, including surface water salinity and precipitation, and the global carbon cycle. Hydrogen isotope records are interpreted as documenting decreased rainout during moisture transport from lower latitudes and increased moisture delivery to the Arctic at the onset of the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum, consistent with predictions of poleward storm track migrations during global warming. The terrestrial-plant carbon isotope excursion (about -4.5 to -6 per mil) is substantially larger than those of marine carbonates. Previously, this offset was explained by the physiological response of plants to increases in surface humidity. But this mechanism is not an effective explanation in this wet Arctic setting, leading us to hypothesize that the true magnitude of the excursion--and associated carbon input--was greater than originally surmised. Greater carbon release and strong hydrological cycle feedbacks may help explain the maintenance of this unprecedented warmth.}, }
@article {pmid16903114, year = {2006}, author = {Malcolm, JR and Liu, C and Neilson, RP and Hansen, L and Hannah, L}, title = {Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.}, journal = {Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {538-548}, doi = {10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00364.x}, pmid = {16903114}, issn = {0888-8892}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Conservation of Energy Resources/*methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots. Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach, we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models, (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes, (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not, and (4) different migration capabilities. Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships. In addition, average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years. Projected percent extinctions ranged from <1 to 43% of the endemic biota (average 11.6%), with biome specificity having the greatest influence on the estimates, followed by the global vegetation model and then by migration and biome classification assumptions. Bootstrap comparisons indicated that effects on hotpots as a group were not significantly different from effects on random same-biome collections of grid cells with respect to biome change or migration rates; in some scenarios, however, botspots exhibited relatively high biome change and low migration rates. Especially vulnerable hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region, Caribbean, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Southwest Australia, and Tropical Andes, where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species. Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years, estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation, supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid16899153, year = {2006}, author = {Patz, JA and Olson, SH}, title = {Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.}, journal = {Annals of tropical medicine and parasitology}, volume = {100}, number = {5-6}, pages = {535-549}, doi = {10.1179/136485906X97426}, pmid = {16899153}, issn = {0003-4983}, mesh = {Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/transmission ; Developing Countries ; Disasters/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.}, }
@article {pmid16896781, year = {2006}, author = {Nielsen, JT and Møller, AP}, title = {Effects of food abundance, density and climate change on reproduction in the sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {149}, number = {3}, pages = {505-518}, pmid = {16896781}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/physiology ; *Climate ; *Clutch Size ; Fagus/growth &amp; development ; Fertility ; Food Chain ; Hawks/*physiology ; Periodicity ; Population Density ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {The reproductive success of predators depends on abiotic environmental conditions, food abundance and population density, and food abundance, density and their interactions may respond to changes in climatic conditions. Timing of reproduction by five of the eight numerically most common prey of the sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus advanced significantly since 1971, during a period of temperature increase. There was no evidence that mean laying date or any other reproductive parameter of sparrowhawks changed consistently during the study period 1977-1997. Laying date advanced and percentage of unsuccessful female sparrowhawks decreased with beech mast in the current year, an index of food abundance for avian prey. Mean laying date of sparrowhawks was advanced in warmer springs, and although mean clutch size was not larger in warm than in cold springs, mean brood size of successful pairs and breeding success increased in such springs, showing that sparrowhawks enjoyed a fitness gain when reproducing early. The timing of sparrowhawk reproduction with respect to the peak in abundance of fledgling prey increased, from a good match between mean timing of fledging by prey and maximum demand for food by the predator in 1977, to reproduction occurring later than the peak in fledging prey availability in 1997. The size of the breeding population of sparrowhawks was not predicted by mean spring temperature, the size of the breeding population the previous year or beech mast crop. The size of the post-breeding population was predicted by size of the breeding and post-breeding population the previous year and by the proportion of unsuccessful females the current year. These findings imply that sparrowhawks did not respond to change in climate, although climate changed the timing of reproduction by the main prey species.}, }
@article {pmid16893476, year = {2006}, author = {Lindow, BE and Dyke, GJ}, title = {Bird evolution in the Eocene: climate change in Europe and a Danish fossil fauna.}, journal = {Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society}, volume = {81}, number = {4}, pages = {483-499}, doi = {10.1017/S146479310600707X}, pmid = {16893476}, issn = {1464-7931}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; Birds/*anatomy &amp; histology/*classification ; *Climate ; Denmark ; Europe ; Female ; *Fossils ; Male ; Paleontology ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {The pattern of the evolutionary radiation of modern birds (Neornithes) has been debated for more than 10 years. However, the early fossil record of birds from the Paleogene, in particular, the Lower Eocene, has only recently begun to be used in a phylogenetic context to address the dynamics of this major vertebrate radiation. The Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-P) extinction event dominates our understanding of early modern bird evolution, but climate change throughout the Eocene is known to have also played a major role. The Paleocene and Lower Eocene was a time of avian diversification as a result of favourable global climatic conditions. Deteriorations in climate beginning in the Middle Eocene appear to be responsible for the demise of previously widespread avian lineages like Lithornithiformes and Gastornithidae. Other groups, such as Galliformes display replacement of some lineages by others, probably related to adaptations to a drier climate. Finally, the combination of slowly deteriorating climatic conditions from the Middle Eocene onwards, appears to have slowed the evolutionary rate in Europe, as avian faunas did not differentiate markedly until the Oligocene. Taking biotic factors in tandem with the known Paleogene fossil record of Neornithes has recently begun to illuminate this evolutionary event. Well-preserved fossil taxa are required in combination with ever-improving phylogenetic hypotheses for the inter-relationships of modern birds founded on morphological characters. One key avifauna of this age, synthesised for the first time herein, is the Lower Eocene Fur Formation of Denmark. The Fur birds represent some of the best preserved (often in three dimensions and with soft tissues) known fossil records for major clades of modern birds. Clear phylogenetic assessment of these fossils will prove critical for future calibration of the neornithine evolutionary timescale. Some early diverging clades were clearly present in the Paleocene as evidenced directly by new fossil material alongside the phylogenetically constrained Lower Eocene taxa. A later Oligocene radiation of clades other than Passeriformes is not supported by available fossil data.}, }
@article {pmid16883701, year = {2002}, author = {Kołodyński, J and Malinowska, A}, title = {[Impacts of climate change on infectious diseases].}, journal = {Wiadomosci parazytologiczne}, volume = {48}, number = {1}, pages = {29-37}, pmid = {16883701}, issn = {0043-5163}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Disasters/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disease Outbreaks/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disease Vectors/*classification ; Ecology/trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Health/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, abstract = {Climate warming may have significant impacts on human health, including changes in the distribution and seasonality of vector-borne diseases. We discuss the consequences of climate change on infectious diseases. Effects of transmission of the imported tropical diseases in Europe are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid16878400, year = {2006}, author = {Brown, P}, title = {Republicans accused of witch-hunt against climate-change scientists.}, journal = {International journal of health services : planning, administration, evaluation}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {417-419}, doi = {10.2190/0WMQ-VEYT-E11H-UY47}, pmid = {16878400}, issn = {0020-7314}, mesh = {*Climate ; Humans ; *Politics ; *Science ; United States ; }, abstract = {Some of America's leading scientists have accused Republican politicians of intimidating climate-change experts by placing them under unprecedented scrutiny. A far-reaching inquiry into the careers of three of the U.S.'s most senior climate specialists has been launched by Joe Barton, chairman of the House of Representatives committee on energy and commerce. He has demanded details of all their sources of funding, methods, and everything they have ever published. The inquiry has sent shockwaves through the U.S. scientific establishment, already under pressure from the Bush administration, which links funding to policy objectives.}, }
@article {pmid16873634, year = {2006}, author = {Landsea, CW and Harper, BA and Hoarau, K and Knaff, JA}, title = {Climate change. Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {313}, number = {5786}, pages = {452-454}, doi = {10.1126/science.1128448}, pmid = {16873634}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16873615, year = {2006}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Politicians attack, but evidence for global warming doesn't wilt.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {313}, number = {5786}, pages = {421}, doi = {10.1126/science.313.5786.421}, pmid = {16873615}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16868759, year = {2006}, author = {Yom-Tov, Y and Heggberget, TM and Wiig, O and Yom-Tov, S}, title = {Body size changes among otters, Lutra lutra, in Norway: the possible effects of food availability and global warming.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {150}, number = {1}, pages = {155-160}, pmid = {16868759}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size/*physiology ; *Diet ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Norway ; Otters/*physiology ; Regression Analysis ; }, abstract = {Using museum data of adult specimens whose sex, age, and locality are known, we studied temporal and geographical body size trends among the otter, Lutra lutra, in Norway. We found that body size of the otters increased during the last quarter of the twentieth century, and suggest that this trend is related to increased food availability from fish farming and possibly also to energy saving due to elevated sea temperatures. Birth year and death year explained 38.8 and 43.5%, respectively, of the variation in body size. Body size of otters was positively related to latitude, thus conforming to Bergmann's rule.}, }
@article {pmid16865409, year = {2006}, author = {Engelhard, GH and Heino, M}, title = {Climate change and condition of herring (Clupea harengus) explain long-term trends in extent of skipped reproduction.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {149}, number = {4}, pages = {593-603}, pmid = {16865409}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Biometry ; Body Weight ; *Climate ; Female ; Fishes/anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Male ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Sexual Behavior, Animal/*physiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {It is commonly assumed that iteroparous fish, once mature, normally reproduce in all consecutive seasons. Recent work has suggested, however, that in Norwegian spring-spawning herring-a population that undertakes extensive spawning migrations-almost one in two adults may skip their second spawning migration. Why should herring not return to spawn the year after first spawning, but instead wait an extra year? For herring, participation in distant, energetically costly, and risky spawning migrations will only pay off in terms of fitness if individuals are sufficiently large, and in sufficient condition, to both successfully migrate and spawn. Changes in the environment and individual condition should therefore affect the likelihood of skipped spawning. This paper describes long-term changes in the extent to which the second reproductive season is skipped in this herring population. These are shown to be linked to the size and condition of herring as first-time spawners, and to climatic factors possibly related to food availability. The findings corroborate the hypothesis that skipped reproduction results from trade-offs between current and future reproduction, growth and survival.}, }
@article {pmid16857260, year = {2006}, author = {Wilby, RL and Orr, HG and Hedger, M and Forrow, D and Blackmore, M}, title = {Risks posed by climate change to the delivery of Water Framework Directive objectives in the UK.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {32}, number = {8}, pages = {1043-1055}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2006.06.017}, pmid = {16857260}, issn = {0160-4120}, mesh = {Chemical Precipitation ; Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Policy Making ; Risk Assessment/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*methods ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is novel because it integrates water quality, water resources, physical habitat and, to some extent, flooding for all surface and groundwaters and takes forward river basin management. However, the WFD does not explicitly mention risks posed by climate change to the achievement of its environmental objectives. This is despite the fact that the time scale for the implementation process and achieving particular objectives extends into the 2020s, when climate models project changes in average temperature and precipitation. This paper begins by reviewing the latest UK climate change scenarios and the wider policy and science context of the WFD. We then examine the potential risks of climate change to key phases of the River Basin Management Process that underpin the WFD (such as characterisation of river basins and their water bodies, risk assessments to identify pressures and impacts, programmes of measures (POMs) options appraisal, monitoring and modelling, policy and management activities). Despite these risks the WFD could link new policy and participative mechanisms (being established for the River Basin Management Plans) to the emerging framework of national and regional climate change adaptation policy. The risks are identified with a view to informing policy opportunities, objective setting, adaptation strategies and the research agenda. Key knowledge gaps have already been identified during the implementation of the WFD, such as the links between hydromorphology and ecosystem status, but the overarching importance of linking climate change to these considerations needs to be highlighted. The next generation of (probabilistic) climate change scenarios will present new opportunities and challenges for risk analysis and policy-making.}, }
@article {pmid16847688, year = {2006}, author = {Laaidi, M and Laaidi, K and Besancenot, JP}, title = {Temperature-related mortality in France, a comparison between regions with different climates from the perspective of global warming.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {51}, number = {2}, pages = {145-153}, pmid = {16847688}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {Climate ; France/epidemiology ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Mortality/*trends ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {This paper aims to explain the results of an observational population study that was carried out between 1991 and 1995 in six regions (departments) in France. The study was to assess the relationship between temperature and mortality in a few areas of France that offer widely varying climatic conditions and lifestyles, to determine their thermal optimum, defined as a 3 degrees C temperature band with the lowest mortality rate in each area, and then to compare the mortality rates from this baseline band with temperatures above and below the baseline. The study period was selected because it did not include extreme cold or hot events such as a heatwave. Data on daily deaths from each department were first used to examine the entire population and then to examine men, women, various age groups and various causes of death (respiratory disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, other disease of the circulatory system, and all other causes excluding violent deaths). Mean temperatures were provided by the National Weather Service. The results depicted an asymmetrical V- or U-shaped relationship between mortality and temperature, with a thermal optimum lower for the elderly, and generally lower for women than for men except in Paris. The relationship was also different depending on the cause of death. In all cases, more evidence was collected showing that cold weather was more deadly than hot weather, and it would now be interesting to enlarge the study to include years with cold spells and heatwaves. Furthermore, the results obtained could be of great use in estimating weather-related mortality as a consequence of future climate-change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid16846907, year = {2006}, author = {Ludwig, GX and Alatalo, RV and Helle, P and Lindén, H and Lindström, J and Siitari, H}, title = {Short- and long-term population dynamical consequences of asymmetric climate change in black grouse.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {273}, number = {1597}, pages = {2009-2016}, pmid = {16846907}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate ; Finland ; Galliformes/*physiology ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Sexual Behavior, Animal ; }, abstract = {Temporal asymmetry in patterns of regional climate change may jeopardize the match between the proximate and ultimate cues of the timing of breeding. The consequences on short- and long-term population dynamics and trends as well as the underlying mechanisms are, however, often unknown. Using long-term data from Finland, we demonstrate that black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) have responded to spring warming by advancing both egg-laying and hatching. However, early summer (the time of hatching) has not advanced, and chicks have to face colder post-hatching conditions. Demonstrating that these conditions are critical to post-hatching survival, we show that chicks are increasingly suffering higher mortality because they hatch too early. Consequently, breeding success and population size has severely declined over the past four decades. Finally, we modelled the impact of this particular climate change scenario on population dynamics and show that the mismatch can further explain the observed collapse of cyclic fluctuations. Because the evolutionary response of grouse is lagging behind the novel selective pressures, seasonally asymmetric climate change is likely to constitute an important determinant of future short- and long-term changes in the dynamics of black grouse populations.}, }
@article {pmid16846383, year = {2007}, author = {Hance, T and van Baaren, J and Vernon, P and Boivin, G}, title = {Impact of extreme temperatures on parasitoids in a climate change perspective.}, journal = {Annual review of entomology}, volume = {52}, number = {}, pages = {107-126}, doi = {10.1146/annurev.ento.52.110405.091333}, pmid = {16846383}, issn = {0066-4170}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate ; Food Chain ; Geography ; Host-Parasite Interactions/physiology ; Insecta/parasitology/*physiology ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Parasitoids depend on a series of adaptations to the ecology and physiology of their hosts and host plants for survival and are thus likely highly susceptible to changes in environmental conditions. We analyze the effects of global warming and extreme temperatures on the life-history traits of parasitoids and interactions with their hosts. Adaptations of parasitoids to low temperatures are similar to those of most ectotherms, but these adaptations are constrained by the responses of their hosts. Life-history traits are affected by cold exposure, and extreme temperatures can reduce endosymbiont populations inside a parasitoid, eventually eliminating populations of endosymbionts that are susceptible to high temperatures. In several cases, divergences between the thermal preferences of the host and those of the parasitoid lead to a disruption of the temporal or geographical synchronization, increasing the risk of host outbreaks. A careful analysis on how host-parasitoid systems react to changes in temperature is needed so that researchers may predict and manage the consequences of global change at the ecosystem level.}, }
@article {pmid16845136, year = {2006}, author = {Ian Milne, R}, title = {Northern Hemisphere plant disjunctions: a window on tertiary land bridges and climate change?.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {98}, number = {3}, pages = {465-472}, pmid = {16845136}, issn = {0305-7364}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate ; Europe ; Genetic Variation ; Geography ; Haplotypes ; North America ; *Phylogeny ; Plants/*classification/*genetics ; }, abstract = {AIMS: This botanical briefing examines how molecular systematics has contributed to progress in understanding the history of Tertiary relict genera, i.e. those that that now occur disjunctly in parts of Eurasia and N America, and how progress in understanding Southern Hemisphere biogeography paradoxically makes unravelling Northern Hemisphere biogeography more complex.<br><br>SCOPE: Tertiary relict floras comprise genera of warm wet climates that were once circumboreal in distribution but are now confined to E Asia, south-eastern and western N America, and SW Eurasia. The intercontinental disjunctions among these genera have long been believed to result from land connections between Eurasia and N America, across Beringia and the N Atlantic. This view is reassessed in the light of new evidence for long dispersal of propagules across oceans being responsible for many plant disjunctions involving southern continents. The impact of molecular dating, which has been very different in Southern and Northern Hemisphere biogeography, is discussed.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: For N America-Eurasia disjunctions involving Tertiary relict floras, land connections remain the more likely cause of disjunctions but data from fossils or infraspecific variation will be required to exclude long-dispersal explanations for disjunctions in any individual genus. Molecular dating of divergence between disjunctly distributed Tertiary relict floras can tell us which palaeoclimatic or palaeogeographic events impacted on them, and how, but only if migration over land and vicariance can be proved and molecular dating is sufficiently accurate.}, }
@article {pmid16844651, year = {2006}, author = {Mitchell, JF and Lowe, J and Wood, RA and Vellinga, M}, title = {Extreme events due to human-induced climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {364}, number = {1845}, pages = {2117-2133}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2006.1816}, pmid = {16844651}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Climate ; Disaster Planning/*methods ; Disasters/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Internationality ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {A recent assessment by the intergovernmental panel on climate change concluded that the Earth's climate would be 2-6 degrees C warmer than in the pre-industrial era by the end of the twenty-first century, due to human-induced increases in greenhouse gases. In the absence of other changes, this would lead to the warmest period on Earth for at least the last 1000 years, and probably the last 100,000 years. The large-scale warming is expected to be accompanied by increased frequency and/or intensity of extreme events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, storms and coastal flooding. There are also several possibilities that this large change could initiate nonlinear climate responses which lead to even more extreme and rapid (on the time-scale of decades) climate change, including the collapse of the ocean 'conveyor belt' circulation, the collapse of major ice sheets or the release of large amounts of methane in high latitudes leading to further global warming. Although these catastrophic events are much more speculative than the direct warming due to increased greenhouse gases, their potential impacts are great and therefore should be included in any risk assessment of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16844259, year = {2006}, author = {Sala, E}, title = {Top predators provide insurance against climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {21}, number = {9}, pages = {479-480}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2006.07.006}, pmid = {16844259}, issn = {0169-5347}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Empirical Research ; Models, Theoretical ; *Predatory Behavior ; }, abstract = {Recent research by Wilmers et al. shows that top predators might buffer some of the ecological effects of climate change. Top predators can regulate the structure of entire communities and dampen their variability; however, in their absence, prey populations are likely to fluctuate greatly owing to bottom-up factors. Restoring top predators to their natural environment could provide insurance against undesired effects of climate change on ecological communities.}, }
@article {pmid16833711, year = {2005}, author = {Sulbaek Andersen, MP and Nielsen, OJ and Wallington, TJ and Hurley, MD and DeMore, WB}, title = {Atmospheric chemistry of CF3OCF2CF2H and CF3OC(CF3)2H: reaction with Cl atoms and OH radicals, degradation mechanism, global warming potentials, and empirical relationship between k(OH) and k(Cl) for organic compounds.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {109}, number = {17}, pages = {3926-3934}, doi = {10.1021/jp044635m}, pmid = {16833711}, issn = {1089-5639}, abstract = {Using FTIR smog chamber techniques, k(Cl + CF3OCF2CF2H) = (2.70 +/- 0.52) x 10(-16), k(OH + CF3OCF2CF2H) = (2.26 +/- 0.18) x 10(-15), k(Cl + CF3OC(CF3)2H) = (1.58 +/- 0.27) x 10(-18) and k(OH + CF3OC(CF3)2H) = (3.26 +/- 0.95) x 10(-16) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1) were measured. The atmospheric lifetimes of CF3OCF2CF2H and CF3OC(CF3)2H are estimated to be 27 and 216 years, respectively. Chlorine atom initiated oxidation of CF3OCF2CF2H in 700 Torr of air in the presence of NO(x) gives CF3OC(O)F in a molar yield of 36 +/- 5% and COF2 in a molar yield of 174 +/- 9%, whereas oxidation of CF3OC(CF3)2H gives CF3OC(O)CF3 and COF2 in molar yields that are indistinguishable from 100%. Quantitative infrared spectra were recorded and used to estimate global warming potentials of 3690 and 8230 (100 year time horizon, relative to CO2) for CF3OCF2CF2H and CF3OC(CF3)2H, respectively. All experiments were performed in 700 Torr of N2/O2 diluent at 296 +/- 2 K. An empirical relationship can be used to estimate the preexponential factor, which can be combined with k(298 K) to give the temperature dependence of reactions of OH radicals with organic compounds proceeding via H-atom abstraction: log(A/n) = (0.239 +/- 0.027) log(k(OH)/n) - (8.69 +/- 0.372), k(OH) is the rate constant at 298 K and n is the number of H atoms. The rates of H-atom abstraction by OH radicals and Cl atoms at 298 K from organic compounds are related by the expression log(k(OH)) = (0.412 +/- 0.049) log(k(Cl)) - (8.16 +/- 0.72). The utility of these expressions and the atmospheric chemistry of the title hydrofluoroethers are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid16833352, year = {2005}, author = {Oyaro, N and Sellevåg, SR and Nielsen, CJ}, title = {Atmospheric chemistry of hydrofluoroethers: Reaction of a series of hydrofluoroethers with OH radicals and Cl atoms, atmospheric lifetimes, and global warming potentials.}, journal = {The journal of physical chemistry. A}, volume = {109}, number = {2}, pages = {337-346}, doi = {10.1021/jp047860c}, pmid = {16833352}, issn = {1089-5639}, abstract = {The kinetics of the OH radical and Cl atom reactions with nine fluorinated ethers have been studied by the relative rate method at 298 K and 1013 hPa using gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC-MS) detection: k(OH + CH3CH2OCF3) = (1.55 +/- 0.25) x 10(-13), k(OH + CF3CH2OCH3) = (5.7 +/- 0.8) x 10(-13),k(OH + CF3CH2OCHF2) = (9.1 +/- 1.1) x 10(-15), k(OH + CF3CHFOCHF2) = (6.5 +/- 0.8) x 10(-15), k(OH + CHF2CHFOCF3) = (6.8 +/- 1.1) x 10(-15), k(OH + CF3CHFOCF3) < 1 x 10(-15), k(OH + CF3CHFCF2OCHF2) = (1.69 +/- 0.26) x 10(-14), k(OH + CF3CHFCF2OCH2CH3) = (1.47 +/- 0.13) x 10(-13), k(OH + CF3CF2CF2OCHFCF3) < 1 x 10(-15), k(Cl + CH3CH2OCF3) = (2.2 +/- 0.8) x 10(-12), k(Cl + CF3CH2OCH3) = (1.8 +/- 0.9) x 10(-11), k(Cl + CF3CH2OCHF2) = (1.5 +/- 0.4) x 10(-14), k(Cl + CF3CHFOCHF2) = (1.1 +/- 1.9) x 10(-15), k(Cl + CHF2CHFOCF3) = (1.2 +/- 2.0) x 10(-15), k(Cl + CF3CHFOCF3) < 3 x 10(-15), k(Cl + CF3CHFCF2OCHF2) < 6 x 10(-16), k(Cl + CF3CHFCF2OCH2CH3) = (3.1 +/- 1.1) x 10(-12), and k(Cl + CF3CF2CF2OCHFCF3) < 3 x 10(-15) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1). The error limits include three standard deviations (3 sigma) from the statistical data analyses, as well as the errors in the rate coefficients of the reference compounds that are used. Infrared absorption cross sections and estimates of the trophospheric lifetimes and the global warming potentials of the fluorinated ethers are presented. The atmospheric degradation of the compounds is discussed.}, }
@article {pmid16825534, year = {2006}, author = {Running, SW}, title = {Climate change. Is global warming causing more, larger wildfires?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {313}, number = {5789}, pages = {927-928}, doi = {10.1126/science.1130370}, pmid = {16825534}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16825479, year = {2006}, author = {Mosier, AR and Halvorson, AD and Reule, CA and Liu, XJ}, title = {Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in irrigated cropping systems in northeastern Colorado.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {1584-1598}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2005.0232}, pmid = {16825479}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Carbon/analysis/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/metabolism ; Colorado ; *Crops, Agricultural ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fertilizers/analysis ; Gases/*metabolism ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Nitrogen/analysis/metabolism ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis/metabolism ; Organic Chemicals/analysis/metabolism ; *Soil ; Glycine max ; Time Factors ; Zea mays ; }, abstract = {The impact of management on global warming potential (GWP), crop production, and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) in irrigated agriculture is not well documented. A no-till (NT) cropping systems study initiated in 1999 to evaluate soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration potential in irrigated agriculture was used in this study to make trace gas flux measurements for 3 yr to facilitate a complete greenhouse gas accounting of GWP and GHGI. Fluxes of CO2, CH4, and N2O were measured using static, vented chambers, one to three times per week, year round, from April 2002 through October 2004 within conventional-till continuous corn (CT-CC) and NT continuous corn (NT-CC) plots and in NT corn-soybean rotation (NT-CB) plots. Nitrogen fertilizer rates ranged from 0 to 224 kg N ha(-1). Methane fluxes were small and did not differ between tillage systems. Nitrous oxide fluxes increased linearly with increasing N fertilizer rate each year, but emission rates varied with years. Carbon dioxide efflux was higher in CT compared to NT in 2002 but was not different by tillage in 2003 or 2004. Based on soil respiration and residue C inputs, NT soils were net sinks of GWP when adequate fertilizer was added to maintain crop production. The CT soils were smaller net sinks for GWP than NT soils. The determinant for the net GWP relationship was a balance between soil respiration and N2O emissions. Based on soil C sequestration, only NT soils were net sinks for GWP. Both estimates of GWP and GHGI indicate that when appropriate crop production levels are achieved, net CO2 emissions are reduced. The results suggest that economic viability and environmental conservation can be achieved by minimizing tillage and utilizing appropriate levels of fertilizer.}, }
@article {pmid16825459, year = {2006}, author = {Alig, RJ and Bair, LS}, title = {Forest environmental investments and implications for climate change mitigation.}, journal = {Journal of environmental quality}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {1389-1395}, doi = {10.2134/jeq2005.0154}, pmid = {16825459}, issn = {0047-2425}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*economics/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; *Ecosystem ; Forestry/*economics ; Geography ; Population Dynamics ; Time Factors ; United States ; }, abstract = {Forest environmental conditions are affected by climate change, but investments in forest environmental quality can be used as part of the climate change mitigation strategy. A key question involving the potential use of forests to store more carbon as part of climate change mitigation is the impact of forest investments on the timing and quantity of forest volumes that affect carbon storage. Using an economic optimization model, we project levels of U.S. forest volumes as indicators of carbon storage for a wide range of private forest investment scenarios. Results show that economic opportunities exist to further intensify timber management on some hectares and reduce the average timber rotation length such that the national volume of standing timber stocks could be reduced relative to projections reflecting historical trends. The national amount of timber volume is projected to increase over the next 50 yr, but then is projected to decline if private owners follow an economic optimization path, such as with more forest type conversions and shorter timber rotations. With perfect foresight, future forest investments can affect current timber harvest levels, with intertemporal linkages based on adjustments through markets. Forest investments that boost regenerated timber yields per hectare would act to enhance ecosystem services (e.g., forest carbon storage) if they are related to the rate of growth and extent of growing stock inventory.}, }
@article {pmid16824657, year = {2007}, author = {Harmens, H and Mills, G and Emberson, LD and Ashmore, MR}, title = {Implications of climate change for the stomatal flux of ozone: a case study for winter wheat.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {146}, number = {3}, pages = {763-770}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2006.05.018}, pmid = {16824657}, issn = {0269-7491}, mesh = {Atmosphere/analysis ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; Greenhouse Effect ; Meteorological Concepts ; Oxidants, Photochemical/analysis/pharmacokinetics/*toxicity ; Ozone/analysis/pharmacokinetics/*toxicity ; Plant Leaves/drug effects/metabolism ; Temperature ; Triticum/drug effects/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Climate change factors such as elevated CO2 concentrations, warming and changes in precipitation affect the stomatal flux of ozone (O3) into leaves directly or indirectly by altering the stomatal conductance, atmospheric O3 concentrations, frequency and extent of pollution episodes and length of the growing season. Results of a case study for winter wheat indicate that in a future climate the exceedance of the flux-based critical level of O3 might be reduced across Europe, even when taking into account an increase in tropospheric background O3 concentration. In contrast, the exceedance of the concentration-based critical level of O3 will increase with the projected increase in tropospheric background O3 concentration. The influence of climate change should be considered when predicting the future effects of O3 on vegetation. There is a clear need for multi-factorial, open-air experiments to provide more realistic information for O3 flux-effect modelling in a future climate.}, }
@article {pmid16818250, year = {2006}, author = {Jenssen, BM}, title = {Endocrine-disrupting chemicals and climate change: A worst-case combination for arctic marine mammals and seabirds?.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {114 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {76-80}, pmid = {16818250}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Endocrine Disruptors/*toxicity ; Environmental Pollutants/toxicity ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Mammals/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The effects of global change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning encompass multiple complex dynamic processes. Climate change and exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are currently regarded as two of the most serious anthropogenic threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. We should, therefore, be especially concerned about the possible effects of EDCs on the ability of Arctic marine mammals and seabirds to adapt to environmental alterations caused by climate change. Relationships between various organochlorine compounds, necessary such as polychlorinated biphenyls, dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, hexachlorobenzene, and oxychlordane, and hormones in Arctic mammals and seabirds imply that these chemicals pose a threat to endocrine systems of these animals. The most pronounced relationships have been reported with the thyroid hormone system, but effects are also seen in sex steroid hormones and cortisol. Even though behavioral and morphological effects of persistent organic pollutants are consistent with endocrine disruption, no direct evidence exists for such relationships. Because different endocrine systems are important for enabling animals to respond adequately to environmental stress, EDCs may interfere with adaptations to increased stress situations. Such interacting effects are likely related to adaptive responses regulated by the thyroid, sex steroid, and glucocorticosteroid systems.}, }
@article {pmid16815970, year = {2006}, author = {Thompson, LG and Mosley-Thompson, E and Brecher, H and Davis, M and León, B and Les, D and Lin, PN and Mashiotta, T and Mountain, K}, title = {Abrupt tropical climate change: past and present.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {103}, number = {28}, pages = {10536-10543}, pmid = {16815970}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Natural History ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Three lines of evidence for abrupt tropical climate change, both past and present, are presented. First, annually and decadally averaged delta(18)O and net mass-balance histories for the last 400 and 2,000 yr, respectively, demonstrate that the current warming at high elevations in the mid- to low latitudes is unprecedented for at least the last 2 millennia. Second, the continuing retreat of most mid- to low-latitude glaciers, many having persisted for thousands of years, signals a recent and abrupt change in the Earth's climate system. Finally, rooted, soft-bodied wetland plants, now exposed along the margins as the Quelccaya ice cap (Peru) retreats, have been radiocarbon dated and, when coupled with other widespread proxy evidence, provide strong evidence for an abrupt mid-Holocene climate event that marked the transition from early Holocene (pre-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions to cooler, late Holocene (post-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions. This abrupt event, approximately 5,200 yr ago, was widespread and spatially coherent through much of the tropics and was coincident with structural changes in several civilizations. These three lines of evidence argue that the present warming and associated glacier retreat are unprecedented in some areas for at least 5,200 yr. The ongoing global-scale, rapid retreat of mountain glaciers is not only contributing to global sea-level rise but also threatening freshwater supplies in many of the world's most populous regions.}, }
@article {pmid16809520, year = {2006}, author = {Schimel, D}, title = {Ecology. Climate change and crop yields: beyond Cassandra.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {312}, number = {5782}, pages = {1889-1890}, doi = {10.1126/science.1129913}, pmid = {16809520}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; Photosynthesis ; Temperature ; Zea mays/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid16809492, year = {2006}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Yes, it's been getting warmer in here since the CO2 began to rise.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {312}, number = {5782}, pages = {1854}, doi = {10.1126/science.312.5782.1854}, pmid = {16809492}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16798393, year = {2006}, author = {Haines, A and Kovats, RS and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Corvalan, C}, title = {Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability, and mitigation.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {367}, number = {9528}, pages = {2101-2109}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68933-2}, pmid = {16798393}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Aged ; *Climate ; Communicable Diseases/*etiology ; *Disasters ; Humans ; *Mortality ; Public Health/*trends ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways--eg, as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold-related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases, and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries might also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public-health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing the use of a number of renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution.}, }
@article {pmid16798369, year = {2006}, author = {Sim, F and Mackie, P}, title = {Climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {367}, number = {9528}, pages = {2039}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68901-0}, pmid = {16798369}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Health Promotion ; Humans ; Public Health/*trends ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid16796576, year = {2006}, author = {Millien, V and Kathleen Lyons, S and Olson, L and Smith, FA and Wilson, AB and Yom-Tov, Y}, title = {Ecotypic variation in the context of global climate change: revisiting the rules.}, journal = {Ecology letters}, volume = {9}, number = {7}, pages = {853-869}, doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00928.x}, pmid = {16796576}, issn = {1461-0248}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Body Size ; *Climate ; *Ecology ; *Fossils ; Geography ; }, abstract = {Patterns of ecotypic variation constitute some of the few 'rules' known to modern biology. Here, we examine several well-known ecogeographical rules, especially those pertaining to body size in contemporary, historical and fossil taxa. We review the evidence showing that rules of geographical variation in response to variation in the local environment can also apply to morphological changes through time in response to climate change. These rules hold at various time scales, ranging from contemporary to geological time scales. Patterns of body size variation in response to climate change at the individual species level may also be detected at the community level. The patterns underlying ecotypic variation are complex and highly context-dependent, reducing the 'predictive-power' of ecogeographical rules. This is especially true when considering the increasing impact of human activities on the environment. Nonetheless, ecogeographical rules may help interpret the likely influences of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems. Global climate change has already influenced the body size of several contemporary species, and will likely have an even greater impact on animal communities in the future. For this reason, we highlight and emphasise the importance of museum specimens and the continued need for documenting the earth's biological diversity.}, }
@article {pmid16794068, year = {2006}, author = {Bradley, RS and Vuille, M and Diaz, HF and Vergara, W}, title = {Climate change. Threats to water supplies in the tropical Andes.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {312}, number = {5781}, pages = {1755-1756}, doi = {10.1126/science.1128087}, pmid = {16794068}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16793822, year = {2006}, author = {Smith, PF}, title = {Climate change: contraction and convergence: myth and reality.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {332}, number = {7556}, pages = {1509; discussion 1509}, pmid = {16793822}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Motivation ; Power Plants/*methods ; }, }
@article {pmid16791936, year = {2006}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {. . . but climate change indicators grow apace.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {16}, number = {11}, pages = {R389-90}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2006.05.028}, pmid = {16791936}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {Africa ; Arctic Regions ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid16786613, year = {2005}, author = {}, title = {Climate change and health: is there a risk?.}, journal = {Explore (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {1}, number = {4}, pages = {247-248}, pmid = {16786613}, issn = {1550-8307}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Exposure ; *Environmental Health ; Environmental Medicine ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Policy ; Risk Management ; }, }
@article {pmid16782480, year = {2006}, author = {Kennedy, A}, title = {Climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {367}, number = {9527}, pages = {1977}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68875-2}, pmid = {16782480}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Climate ; *Disasters ; Food Supply ; Humans ; *Mortality ; }, }
@article {pmid16782477, year = {2006}, author = {Derbyshire, SW}, title = {Climate change and health.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {367}, number = {9527}, pages = {1976; author reply 1976-7}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68873-9}, pmid = {16782477}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Attitude to Health ; Disaster Planning ; *Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health ; Humans ; Mortality ; Technology/*methods/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid16778859, year = {2006}, author = {Walker, G}, title = {Climate change: the tipping point of the iceberg.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {441}, number = {7095}, pages = {802-805}, doi = {10.1038/441802a}, pmid = {16778859}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Greenland ; Human Activities ; Humans ; *Ice Cover ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid16778046, year = {2006}, author = {Zimov, SA and Schuur, EA and Chapin, FS}, title = {Climate change. Permafrost and the global carbon budget.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {312}, number = {5780}, pages = {1612-1613}, doi = {10.1126/science.1128908}, pmid = {16778046}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16777739, year = {2006}, author = {Menéndez, R and Megías, AG and Hill, JK and Braschler, B and Willis, SG and Collingham, Y and Fox, R and Roy, DB and Thomas, CD}, title = {Species richness changes lag behind climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {273}, number = {1593}, pages = {1465-1470}, pmid = {16777739}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Climate ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Neural Networks, Computer ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Species-energy theory indicates that recent climate warming should have driven increases in species richness in cool and species-poor parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We confirm that the average species richness of British butterflies has increased since 1970-82, but much more slowly than predicted from changes of climate: on average, only one-third of the predicted increase has taken place. The resultant species assemblages are increasingly dominated by generalist species that were able to respond quickly. The time lag is confirmed by the successful introduction of many species to climatically suitable areas beyond their ranges. Our results imply that it may be decades or centuries before the species richness and composition of biological communities adjusts to the current climate.}, }
@article {pmid16775776, year = {2006}, author = {Schröder, W and Schmidt, G and Hasenclever, J}, title = {Geostatistical analysis of data on air temperature and plant phenology from Baden-Württemberg (Germany) as a basis for regional scaled models of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {120}, number = {1-3}, pages = {27-43}, pmid = {16775776}, issn = {0167-6369}, mesh = {*Air ; *Climate ; Data Interpretation, Statistical ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Germany ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Plant Development ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The rise of the air temperature is assured to be part of the global climatic change, but there is still a lack of knowledge about its effects at a regional scale. The article tackles the correlation of air temperature with the phenology of selected plants by the example of Baden-Württemberg to provide a spatial valid data base for regional climate change models. To this end, the data on air temperature and plant phenology, gathered from measurement sites without congruent coverage, were correlated after performing geostatistical analysis and estimation. In addition, geostatistics are used to analyze and cartographically depict the spatial structure of the phenology of plants in spring and in summer. The statistical analysis reveals a significant relationship between the rising air temperature and the earlier beginning of phenological phases like blooming or fruit maturation: From 1991 to 1999 spring time, as indicated by plant phenology, has begun up to 15 days earlier than from 1961 to 1990. As shown by geostatistics, this holds true for the whole territory of Baden-Württemberg. The effects of the rise of air temperature should be investigated not only by monitoring biological individuals, as for example plants, but on an ecosystem level as well. In Germany, the environmental monitoring should be supplemented by the study of the effects of the climatic change in ecosystems. Because air temperature and humidity have a great influence on the temporal and spatial distribution of pathogen carriers (vectors) and pathogens, mapping of the environmental determinants of vector and pathogen distribution in space and time should be performed in order to identify hot spots for risk assessment and further detailed epidemiological studies.}, }
@article {pmid16768861, year = {2006}, author = {Poulin, R and Mouritsen, KN}, title = {Climate change, parasitism and the structure of intertidal ecosystems.}, journal = {Journal of helminthology}, volume = {80}, number = {2}, pages = {183-191}, doi = {10.1079/joh2006341}, pmid = {16768861}, issn = {0022-149X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; New Zealand ; Parasitic Diseases, Animal/*transmission ; Population Dynamics ; Seawater ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Evidence is accumulating rapidly showing that temperature and other climatic variables are driving many ecological processes. At the same time, recent research has highlighted the role of parasitism in the dynamics of animal populations and the structure of animal communities. Here, the likely interactions between climate change and parasitism are discussed in the context of intertidal ecosystems. Firstly, using the soft-sediment intertidal communities of Otago Harbour, New Zealand, as a case study, parasites are shown to be ubiquitous components of intertidal communities, found in practically all major animal species in the system. With the help of specific examples from Otago Harbour, it is demonstrated that parasites can regulate host population density, influence the diversity of the entire benthic community, and affect the structure of the intertidal food web. Secondly, we document the extreme sensitivity of cercarial production in parasitic trematodes to increases in temperature, and discuss how global warming could lead to enhanced trematode infections. Thirdly, the results of a simulation model are used to argue that parasite-mediated local extinctions of intertidal animals are a likely outcome of global warming. Specifically, the model predicts that following a temperature increase of less than 4 degrees C, populations of the amphipod Corophium volutator, a hugely abundant tube-building amphipod on the mudflats of the Danish Wadden Sea, are likely to crash repeatedly due to mortality induced by microphallid trematodes. The available evidence indicates that climate-mediated changes in local parasite abundance will have significant repercussions for intertidal ecosystems. On the bright side, the marked effects of even slight increases in temperature on cercarial production in trematodes could form the basis for monitoring programmes, with these sensitive parasites providing early warning signals of the environmental impacts of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid16768667, year = {2006}, author = {Kefford, RF}, title = {Medical heat for climate change.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {184}, number = {11}, pages = {582}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.2006.tb00385.x}, pmid = {16768667}, issn = {0025-729X}, mesh = {Fossil Fuels ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Internationality ; *Physician's Role ; }, }
@article {pmid16768655, year = {2006}, author = {Woodruff, RE and McMichael, AJ and Hales, S}, title = {Action on climate change: no time to delay.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {184}, number = {11}, pages = {539-540}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.2006.tb00373.x}, pmid = {16768655}, issn = {0025-729X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; Fossil Fuels ; Gases ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Policy ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {Global warming is real, so what are we going to do about it, who will do it, and when?}, }
@article {pmid16763255, year = {2006}, author = {Stott, R}, title = {Healthy response to climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {332}, number = {7554}, pages = {1385-1387}, pmid = {16763255}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Budgets ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Environmental Pollution ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Motivation ; }, abstract = {Environmentally friendly policies may feel like a low priority among the many pressures in a busy professional life, but promoting carbon rationing could be your most important contribution to patients' health}, }
@article {pmid16763225, year = {2006}, author = {Coote, A}, title = {What health services could do about climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {332}, number = {7554}, pages = {1343-1344}, pmid = {16763225}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; State Medicine/economics/*organization &amp; administration ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid16763134, year = {2006}, author = {Bradshaw, WE and Holzapfel, CM}, title = {Climate change. Evolutionary response to rapid climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {312}, number = {5779}, pages = {1477-1478}, doi = {10.1126/science.1127000}, pmid = {16763134}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Acclimatization/genetics ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid16763050, year = {2006}, author = {Gilman, SE and Wethey, DS and Helmuth, B}, title = {Variation in the sensitivity of organismal body temperature to climate change over local and geographic scales.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {103}, number = {25}, pages = {9560-9565}, pmid = {16763050}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Temperature/*physiology ; *Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Mytilus/physiology ; Oceans and Seas ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is expected to have broad ecological consequences for species and communities. Attempts to forecast these consequences usually assume that changes in air or water temperature will translate into equivalent changes in a species' organismal body temperature. This simple change is unlikely because an organism's body temperature is determined by a complex series of interactions between the organism and its environment. Using a biophysical model, validated with 5 years of field observations, we examined the relationship between environmental temperature change and body temperature of the intertidal mussel Mytilus californianus over 1,600 km of its geographic distribution. We found that at all locations examined simulated changes in air or water temperature always produced less than equivalent changes in the daily maximum mussel body temperature. Moreover, the magnitude of body temperature change was highly variable, both within and among locations. A simulated 1 degrees C increase in air or water temperature raised the maximum monthly average of daily body temperature maxima by 0.07-0.92 degrees C, depending on the geographic location, vertical position, and temperature variable. We combined these sensitivities with predicted climate change for 2100 and calculated increases in monthly average maximum body temperature of 0.97-4.12 degrees C, depending on location and climate change scenario. Thus geographic variation in body temperature sensitivity can modulate species' experiences of climate change and must be considered when predicting the biological consequences of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16761594, year = {2006}, author = {Smith, JR and Fong, P and Ambrose, RF}, title = {Dramatic declines in mussel bed community diversity: response to climate change?.}, journal = {Ecology}, volume = {87}, number = {5}, pages = {1153-1161}, doi = {10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[1153:ddimbc]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {16761594}, issn = {0012-9658}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Biomass ; Bivalvia/*classification/*growth &amp; development ; California ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Male ; Pacific Ocean ; Phylogeny ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Population Growth ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Mussel beds along the wave-exposed coast of the eastern North Pacific Ocean serve as an important habitat, harboring a high diversity of species. A comparison of California mussel bed community diversity in 2002 to historical data (1960s to 1970s) revealed large declines (mean loss 58.9%), including some declines >141 species (approximately 80% loss). Concurrent work revealed inconsistent changes in mussel populations (biomass and bed thickness) along the California coast, suggesting that diversity declines may be related to large-scale processes rather than local habitat destruction. Potential factors causing declines in mussel community diversity are discussed, with regional climate change associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate change induced alterations of ecological interactions and biological processes suggested as likely causes. Although extensive literature has predicted the potential effects of climate change on global diversity, this study is one of the few examples of declines attributed to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16738902, year = {2006}, author = {Ahas, R and Aasa, A}, title = {The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {51}, number = {1}, pages = {17-26}, pmid = {16738902}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds/physiology ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Estonia ; *Fishes/physiology ; Flight, Animal ; Greenhouse Effect ; Meteorological Concepts ; Plant Development ; *Plants ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5-20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10-30 days in the spring period. Estonia's average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.}, }
@article {pmid16738648, year = {2006}, author = {Pfeiffer, T and Nowak, MA}, title = {Climate change: all in the game.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {441}, number = {7093}, pages = {583-584}, doi = {10.1038/441583a}, pmid = {16738648}, issn = {1476-4687}, support = {R01 GM078986/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Altruism ; *Game Theory ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Human Activities/psychology/trends ; Humans ; Investments/trends ; Punishment/psychology ; Reward ; }, }
@article {pmid16738644, year = {2006}, author = {Stoll, HM}, title = {Climate change: the Arctic tells its story.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {441}, number = {7093}, pages = {579-581}, doi = {10.1038/441579a}, pmid = {16738644}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Cold Climate ; Ferns/physiology ; Geologic Sediments/*analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice Cover/chemistry ; Seawater/chemistry ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid16728615, year = {2006}, author = {Fearnside, PM}, title = {Tropical deforestation and global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {312}, number = {5777}, pages = {1137}, doi = {10.1126/science.312.5777.1137c}, pmid = {16728615}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Brazil ; Carbon ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Trees ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid16722808, year = {2006}, author = {Garrett, KA and Dendy, SP and Frank, EE and Rouse, MN and Travers, SE}, title = {Climate change effects on plant disease: genomes to ecosystems.}, journal = {Annual review of phytopathology}, volume = {44}, number = {}, pages = {489-509}, doi = {10.1146/annurev.phyto.44.070505.143420}, pmid = {16722808}, issn = {0066-4286}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Plant Diseases ; }, abstract = {Research in the effects of climate change on plant disease continues to be limited, but some striking progress has been made. At the genomic level, advances in technologies for the high-throughput analysis of gene expression have made it possible to begin discriminating responses to different biotic and abiotic stressors and potential trade-offs in responses. At the scale of the individual plant, enough experiments have been performed to begin synthesizing the effects of climate variables on infection rates, though pathosystem-specific characteristics make synthesis challenging. Models of plant disease have now been developed to incorporate more sophisticated climate predictions. At the population level, the adaptive potential of plant and pathogen populations may prove to be one of the most important predictors of the magnitude of climate change effects. Ecosystem ecologists are now addressing the role of plant disease in ecosystem processes and the challenge of scaling up from individual infection probabilities to epidemics and broader impacts.}, }
@article {pmid16722249, year = {2006}, author = {O'Brien, K and Eriksen, S and Sygna, L and Naess, LO}, title = {Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, pages = {50-56}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[50:qccciv]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {16722249}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Norway ; }, abstract = {Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid16711048, year = {2006}, author = {Harper, MP and Peckarsky, BL}, title = {Emergence cues of a mayfly in a high-altitude stream ecosystem: potential response to climate change.}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {612-621}, doi = {10.1890/1051-0761(2006)016[0612:ecoami]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {16711048}, issn = {1051-0761}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Colorado ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Insecta/*physiology ; *Metamorphosis, Biological ; Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {To understand the consequences of human accelerated environmental change, it is important to document the effects on natural populations of an increasing frequency of extreme climatic events. In stream ecosystems, recent climate change has resulted in extreme variation in both thermal and hydrological regimes. From 2001 to 2004, a severe drought in western United States corresponded with earlier emergence of the adult stage of the high-altitude stream mayfly, Baetis bicaudatus. Using a long-term database from a western Colorado stream, the peak emergence date of this mayfly population was predicted by both the magnitude and date of peak stream flow, and by the mean daily water temperature, suggesting that Baetis may respond to declining stream flow or increasing water temperature as proximate cues for early metamorphosis. However, in a one-year survey of multiple streams from the same drainage basin, only water temperature predicted spatial variation in the onset of emergence of this mayfly. To decouple the effects of temperature and flow, we separately manipulated these factors in flow-through microcosms and measured the timing of B. bicaudatus metamorphosis to the adult stage. Mayflies emerged sooner in a warmed-water treatment than an ambient-water treatment; but reducing flow did not accelerate the onset of mayfly emergence. Nonetheless, using warming temperatures to cue metamorphosis enables mayflies to time their emergence during the descending limb of the hydrograph when oviposition sites (protruding rocks) are becoming available. We speculate that large-scale climate changes involving warming and stream drying could cause significant shifts in the timing of mayfly metamorphosis, thereby having negative effects on populations that play an important role in stream ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid16703670, year = {2006}, author = {Watson, P}, title = {Climate change and low temperature bioscience.}, journal = {Cryo letters}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {1-2}, pmid = {16703670}, issn = {0143-2044}, mesh = {Animals ; Cold Climate ; Ecology/*trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid16701483, year = {2006}, author = {Pearson, RG}, title = {Climate change and the migration capacity of species.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {111-113}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2005.11.022}, pmid = {16701483}, issn = {0169-5347}, mesh = {*Climate ; Pollen ; Species Specificity ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In a recent paper, McLachlan et al. presented evidence that migration rates of two tree species at the end of the last glacial (c. 10-20 thousand years ago) were much slower than was previously thought. These results provide an important insight for climate-change impacts studies and suggest that the ability of species to track future climate change is limited. However, the detection of late-glacial refugia close to modern range limits also implies that some of our most catastrophic projections might be overstated.}, }
@article {pmid16701450, year = {2005}, author = {Walther, GR and Hughes, L and Vitousek, P and Stenseth, NC}, title = {Consensus on climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {20}, number = {12}, pages = {648-649}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2005.10.008}, pmid = {16701450}, issn = {0169-5347}, }
@article {pmid16701390, year = {2005}, author = {Hays, GC and Richardson, AJ and Robinson, C}, title = {Climate change and marine plankton.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {337-344}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2005.03.004}, pmid = {16701390}, issn = {0169-5347}, abstract = {Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO(2) levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid16701319, year = {2004}, author = {Anderson, PK and Cunningham, AA and Patel, NG and Morales, FJ and Epstein, PR and Daszak, P}, title = {Emerging infectious diseases of plants: pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {19}, number = {10}, pages = {535-544}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2004.07.021}, pmid = {16701319}, issn = {0169-5347}, abstract = {Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) pose threats to conservation and public health. Here, we apply the definition of EIDs used in the medical and veterinary fields to botany and highlight a series of emerging plant diseases. We include EIDs of cultivated and wild plants, some of which are of significant conservation concern. The underlying cause of most plant EIDs is the anthropogenic introduction of parasites, although severe weather events are also important drivers of disease emergence. Much is known about crop plant EIDs, but there is little information about wild-plant EIDs, suggesting that their impact on conservation is underestimated. We conclude with recommendations for improving strategies for the surveillance and control of plant EIDs.}, }
@article {pmid16697507, year = {2007}, author = {Aptroot, A and van Herk, CM}, title = {Further evidence of the effects of global warming on lichens, particularly those with Trentepohlia phycobionts.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {146}, number = {2}, pages = {293-298}, doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2006.03.018}, pmid = {16697507}, issn = {0269-7491}, mesh = {Biodiversity ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Environmental Pollution ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Lichens/*physiology ; Netherlands ; Temperature ; Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {Increasing evidence suggests that lichens are responding to climate change in Western Europe. More epiphytic species appear to be increasing, rather than declining, as a result of global warming. Many terricolous species, in contrast, are declining. Changes to epiphytic floras are markedly more rapid in formerly heavily polluted, generally built-up or open rural areas, as compared to forested regions. Both the distribution (southern) and ecology (warmth-loving) of the newly established or increasing species seem to be determined by global warming. Epiphytic temperate to boreo-montane species appear to be relatively unaffected. Vacant niches caused by other environmental changes are showing the most pronounced effects of global warming. Species most rapidly increasing in forests, although taxonomically unrelated, all contain Trentepohlia as phycobiont in addition to having a southern distribution. This suggests that in this habitat, Trentepohlia algae, rather than the different lichen symbioses, are affected by global warming.}, }
@article {pmid16689964, year = {2006}, author = {Beale, CM and Burfield, IJ and Sim, IM and Rebecca, GW and Pearce-Higgins, JW and Grant, MC}, title = {Climate change may account for the decline in British ring ouzels Turdus torquatus.}, journal = {The Journal of animal ecology}, volume = {75}, number = {3}, pages = {826-835}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2006.01102.x}, pmid = {16689964}, issn = {0021-8790}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate ; Female ; Male ; Passeriformes/*physiology ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Sexual Behavior, Animal/*physiology ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {1. Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, but the number of species for which reliable models relate weather and climate to demographic parameters is low. 2. We modelled the effect of temperature and rainfall on the breeding success and territory occupancy of ring ouzels Turdus torquatus (L.) in northern Britain, using data from a range of study areas, including one where there was a long-term decline in ring ouzel abundance. 3. Timing of breeding was significantly related to meteorological variables affecting birds in the early spring, though there was no evidence that laying dates had advanced. Breeding success was not significantly related to weather variables; instead, over 90% of annual variation in this parameter could be explained by density dependence. 4. Annual change in territory occupancy was linked to rainfall and temperature the preceding summer, after the main breeding season and to rainfall in the wintering grounds 24 months previously, coincident with the period of juniper Juniperus sp. (L.) flowering. High temperature in late summer, intermediate levels of late summer rainfall, and high spring rainfall in Morocco 24 months previously all had negative impacts on territory occupancy the following year. 5. All three weather variables have changed over recent decades, with a significant increase in summer temperature, a significant decrease in summer rainfall, and a nonsignificant decline in Moroccan spring rainfall. A model based on these trends alone predicted an annual decline in occupancy of 3.6% (compared with an observed decline of 1.2%), and suggested that increased summer temperatures may underlie declines in the British ring ouzel population. 6. Changes in summer temperature after the main breeding period could affect the survival rates of adult and/or juvenile birds. An improved understanding of the post-breeding ecology of ring ouzels is required to elucidate the mechanisms and causes of this relationship. Such knowledge might allow management aimed at buffering the impacts of climate change on ring ouzels.}, }
@article {pmid16683583, year = {2006}, author = {Pelley, J}, title = {Will climate change worsen infectious diseases?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {40}, number = {8}, pages = {2502-2503}, pmid = {16683583}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Communicable Diseases ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid16672969, year = {2006}, author = {Both, C and Bouwhuis, S and Lessells, CM and Visser, ME}, title = {Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {441}, number = {7089}, pages = {81-83}, doi = {10.1038/nature04539}, pmid = {16672969}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Food ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Nesting Behavior/*physiology ; Netherlands ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Seasons ; Songbirds/*physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Phenological responses to climate change differ across trophic levels, which may lead to birds failing to breed at the time of maximal food abundance. Here we investigate the population consequences of such mistiming in the migratory pied flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca. In a comparison of nine Dutch populations, we find that populations have declined by about 90% over the past two decades in areas where the food for provisioning nestlings peaks early in the season and the birds are currently mistimed. In areas with a late food peak, early-breeding birds still breed at the right time, and there is, at most, a weak population decline. If food phenology advances further, we also predict population declines in areas with a late food peak, as in these areas adjustment to an advanced food peak is insufficient. Mistiming as a result of climate change is probably a widespread phenomenon, and here we provide evidence that it can lead to population declines.}, }
@article {pmid16647975, year = {2006}, author = {Rogers, DJ and Randolph, SE}, title = {Climate change and vector-borne diseases.}, journal = {Advances in parasitology}, volume = {62}, number = {}, pages = {345-381}, doi = {10.1016/S0065-308X(05)62010-6}, pmid = {16647975}, issn = {2163-6079}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, abstract = {In this review we examine formally the conditions under which vector-borne diseases are likely to change, and the directions of those changes, under various scenarios of climate change. We specify the criteria that must be met in order to conclude that climate change is having an effect on vector-borne diseases. We then take several examples from the literature and show how some of them meet these criteria, while others do not. For those that do not, there are alternative explanations that involve much more plausible drivers of the recorded changes in the diseases concerned.}, }
@article {pmid16647104, year = {2006}, author = {Andersen, HE and Kronvang, B and Larsen, SE and Hoffmann, CC and Jensen, TS and Rasmussen, EK}, title = {Climate-change impacts on hydrology and nutrients in a Danish lowland river basin.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {365}, number = {1-3}, pages = {223-237}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.02.036}, pmid = {16647104}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Chemical Precipitation ; *Climate ; Denmark ; Geography ; Models, Statistical ; Nitrogen/*analysis/metabolism ; Phosphorus/*analysis/metabolism ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Seasons ; Soil Pollutants/*analysis ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The Mike 11-TRANS modelling system was applied to the lowland Gjern river basin in Denmark to assess climate-change impacts on hydrology and nitrogen retention processes in watercourses, lakes and riparian wetlands. Nutrient losses from land to surface waters were assessed using statistical models incorporating the effect of changed hydrology. Climate-change was predicted by the ECHAM4/OPYC General Circulation Model (IPCC A2 scenario) dynamically downscaled by the Danish HIRHAM regional climate model (25 km grid) for two time slices: 1961-1990 (control) and 2071-2100 (scenario). HIRHAM predicts an increase in mean annual precipitation of 47 mm (5%) and an increase in mean annual air temperature of 3.2 degrees C (43%). The HIRHAM predictions were used as external forcings to the rainfall-runoff model NAM, which was set up and run for 6 subcatchments within and for the entire, Gjern river basin. Mean annual runoff from the river basin increases 27 mm (7.5%, p<0.05) when comparing the scenario to the control. Larger changes, however, were found regarding the extremes; runoff during the wettest year in the 30-year period increased by 58 mm (12.3%). The seasonal pattern is expected to change with significantly higher runoff during winter. Summer runoff is expected to increase in predominantly groundwater fed streams and decrease in streams with a low base-flow index. The modelled change in the seasonal hydrological pattern is most pronounced in first- or second-order streams draining loamy catchments, which currently have a low base-flow during the summer period. Reductions of 40-70% in summer runoff are predicted for this stream type. A statistical nutrient loss model was developed for simulating the impact of changed hydrology on diffuse nutrient losses (i.e. losses from land to surface waters) and applied to the river basin. The simulated mean annual changes in TN loads in a loamy and a sandy subcatchment were, respectively, +2.3 kg N ha(-1) (8.5%) and +1.6 kg N ha(-1) (6.9%). The rainfall-runoff model and the nutrient loss model were chained with Mike 11-TRANS to simulate the combined effects of climate-change on hydrology, nutrient losses and nitrogen retention processes at the scale of the river basin. The mean annual TN export from the river basin increased from the control to the scenario period by 7.7%. Even though an increase in nitrogen retention in the river system of 4.2% was simulated in the scenario period, an increased in-stream TN export resulted because of the simulated increase in the diffuse TN transfer from the land to the surface-waters.}, }
@article {pmid16646459, year = {2006}, author = {Young, CJ and Hurley, MD and Wallington, TJ and Mabury, SA}, title = {Atmospheric lifetime and global warming potential of a perfluoropolyether.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {40}, number = {7}, pages = {2242-2246}, doi = {10.1021/es052077z}, pmid = {16646459}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Ethers/*chemistry ; Fluorocarbons/*chemistry ; Hot Temperature ; Kinetics ; Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy ; Photochemistry ; Spectrophotometry, Ultraviolet ; Spectroscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared ; }, abstract = {Perfluoropolyethers (PFPEs) are a family of perfluorinated fluids used mainly in industrial applications. Lower molecular weight commercial PFPE fractions have boiling points ranging between 55 and 270 degrees C, and have the potential to escape into the atmosphere. To improve our understanding of the atmospheric chemistry of PFPEs, a distilled fraction of a commercial mixture containing perfluoropolymethylisopropyl ethers (PFPMIEs) was introduced into an atmospheric chamber system. Relative rate techniques were used to determine upper limits for the rate constants for reactions of OH and Cl with PFPMIE in 700 Torr of air at 296 K. The reactivity of PFPMIE with Cl was less than 2 x 10(-17) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1), while the reactivity with OH was less than 6.8 x 10(-16) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1), indicating low reactivity in the troposphere. Consequently, the lifetime of PFPMIE should be limited bytransport to the mesosphere, where photolysis by Lyman-alpha radiation at 121.6 nm will be efficient. By analogy to perfluorinated alkanes, the lower limit for the total atmospheric lifetime is 800 years. PFPMIE was shown to have instantaneous radiative forcing of 0.65 W m(-2) ppb(-1), which corresponds to a global warming potential on a 100 year time scale of 9000 relative to CO2 and 1.95 relative to CFC-11.}, }
@article {pmid16646438, year = {2006}, author = {Reiner, DM and Curry, TE and De Figueiredo, MA and Herzog, HJ and Ansolabehere, SD and Itaoka, K and Johnsson, F and Odenberger, M}, title = {American exceptionalism? Similarities and differences in national attitudes toward energy policy and global warming.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {40}, number = {7}, pages = {2093-2098}, doi = {10.1021/es052010b}, pmid = {16646438}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Attitude ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Opinion ; *Public Policy ; United States ; }, abstract = {Despite sharp differences in government policy, the views of the U.S. public on energy and global warming are remarkably similar to those in Sweden, Britain, and Japan. Americans do exhibit some differences, placing lower priority on the environment and global warming, and with fewer believing that "global warming has been established as a serious problem and immediate action is necessary". There also remains a small hard core of skeptics (< 10%) who do not believe in the science of climate change and the need for action, a group that is much smaller in the other countries surveyed. The similarities are, however, pervasive. Similar preferences are manifest across a wide range of technology and fuel choices, in support of renewables, in research priorities, in a basic understanding of which technologies produce or reduce carbon dioxide (or misunderstandings in the case of nuclear power), and in willingness to pay for solving global warming.}, }
@article {pmid16646435, year = {2006}, author = {Thacker, PD}, title = {Climate change and American exceptionalism.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {40}, number = {7}, pages = {2076-2077}, pmid = {16646435}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Public Opinion ; Public Policy ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid16616318, year = {2006}, author = {Wright, RF and Aherne, J and Bishop, K and Camarero, L and Cosby, BJ and Erlandsson, M and Evans, CD and Forsius, M and Hardekopf, DW and Helliwell, R and Hruska, J and Jenkins, A and Kopácek, J and Moldan, F and Posch, M and Rogora, M}, title = {Modelling the effect of climate change on recovery of acidified freshwaters: relative sensitivity of individual processes in the MAGIC model.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {365}, number = {1-3}, pages = {154-166}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.02.042}, pmid = {16616318}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; Forestry ; Geography ; Geologic Sediments/analysis/chemistry ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Models, Biological ; Nitrogen/analysis/metabolism ; North America ; Organic Chemicals/analysis/metabolism ; Sodium Chloride/analysis ; Soil Pollutants/*analysis ; Time Factors ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; Water Supply/analysis ; }, abstract = {The MAGIC model was used to evaluate the relative sensitivity of several possible climate-induced effects on the recovery of soil and surface water from acidification. A common protocol was used at 14 intensively studied sites in Europe and eastern North America. The results show that several of the factors are of only minor importance (increase in pCO(2) in soil air and runoff, for example), several are important at only a few sites (seasalts at near-coastal sites, for example) and several are important at nearly all sites (increased concentrations of organic acids in soil solution and runoff, for example). In addition changes in forest growth and decomposition of soil organic matter are important at forested sites and sites at risk of nitrogen saturation. The trials suggest that in future modelling of recovery from acidification should take into account possible concurrent climate changes and focus specially on the climate-induced changes in organic acids and nitrogen retention.}, }
@article {pmid16615692, year = {2006}, author = {Robinson, J and Bradley, M and Busby, P and Connor, D and Murray, A and Sampson, B and Soper, W}, title = {Climate change and sustainable development: realizing the opportunity.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {2-8}, pmid = {16615692}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {British Columbia ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Health Resources ; Policy Making ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Manifold linkages exist between climate change and sustainable development. Although these are starting to receive attention in the climate exchange literature, the focus has typically been on examining sustainable development through a climate change lens, rather than vice versa. And there has been little systematic examination of how these linkages may be fostered in practice. This paper examines climate change through a sustainable development lens. To illustrate how this might change the approach to climate change issues, it reports on the findings of a panel of business, local government, and academic representatives in British Columbia, Canada, who were appointed to advise the provincial government on climate change policy. The panel found that sustainable development may offer a significantly more fruitful way to pursue climate policy goals than climate policy itself. The paper discusses subsequent climate change developments in the province and makes suggestions as how best to pursue such a sustainability approach in British Columbia and other jurisdictions.}, }
@article {pmid16613503, year = {2006}, author = {Grant, RH and Heisler, GM}, title = {Effect of cloud cover on UVB exposure under tree canopies: will climate change affect UVB exposure?.}, journal = {Photochemistry and photobiology}, volume = {82}, number = {2}, pages = {487-494}, doi = {10.1562/2005-07-07-RA-604}, pmid = {16613503}, issn = {0031-8655}, abstract = {The effect of cloud cover on the amount of solar UV radiation that reaches pedestrians under tree cover was evaluated with a three-dimensional canopy radiation transport model. The spatial distribution of UVB irradiance at the base of a regular array of spherical tree crowns was modeled under the full range of sky conditions. The spatial mean relative irradiance (I(r)) and erythemal irradiance of the entire below-canopy domain and the spatial mean relative irradiance and erythemal irradiance in the shaded regions of the domain were determined for solar zenith angles from 15 degrees to 60 degrees. The erythemal UV irradiance under skies with 50% or less cloud cover was not remarkably different from that under clear skies. In the shade, the actual irradiance was greater under partly cloudy than under clear skies. The mean ultraviolet protection factor for tree canopies under skies with 50% or less cloud cover was nearly equivalent to that for clear sky days. Regression equations of spatially averaged I(r) as a function of cloud cover fraction, solar zenith angle and canopy cover were used to predict the variation in erythemal irradiance in different land uses across Baltimore, MD.}, }
@article {pmid16606851, year = {2006}, author = {Neelin, JD and Münnich, M and Su, H and Meyerson, JE and Holloway, CE}, title = {Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {103}, number = {16}, pages = {6110-6115}, pmid = {16606851}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Caribbean Region ; Central America ; Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Human Activities ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Seasons ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is obtained, notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones, a step in a hypothesized causal path leading to precipitation changes. A measure of local intermodel agreement on significant trends indicates consistent predictions for particular regions. Observed rainfall trends in several data sets show a significant summer drying trend in a main region of intermodel agreement: the Caribbean/Central-American region.}, }
@article {pmid16603230, year = {2006}, author = {Whitehead, PG and Wilby, RL and Butterfield, D and Wade, AJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change on in-stream nitrogen in a lowland chalk stream: an appraisal of adaptation strategies.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {365}, number = {1-3}, pages = {260-273}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.02.040}, pmid = {16603230}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Air Pollution/analysis ; Ammonia/analysis/metabolism ; Calcium Carbonate/*analysis ; *Climate ; Fertilizers ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; Minerals/chemistry ; Models, Biological ; Nitrates/analysis/metabolism ; Nitrogen/*analysis/metabolism ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Seasons ; Soil Pollutants/analysis ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Water Movements ; Water Pollutants/*analysis ; }, abstract = {The impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) in a lowland chalk stream are investigated using a dynamic modelling approach. The INCA-N model is used to simulate transient daily hydrology and water quality in the River Kennet using temperature and precipitation scenarios downscaled from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the period 1961-2100. The three GCMs (CGCM2, CSIRO and HadCM3) yield very different river flow regimes with the latter projecting significant periods of drought in the second half of the 21st century. Stream-water N concentrations increase over time as higher temperatures enhance N release from the soil, and lower river flows reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Particular problems are shown to occur following severe droughts when N mineralization is high and the subsequent breaking of the drought releases high nitrate loads into the river system. Possible strategies for reducing climate-driven N loads are explored using INCA-N. The measures include land use change or fertiliser reduction, reduction in atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition, and the introduction of water meadows or connected wetlands adjacent to the river. The most effective strategy is to change land use or reduce fertiliser use, followed by water meadow creation, and atmospheric pollution controls. Finally, a combined approach involving all three strategies is investigated and shown to reduce in-stream nitrate concentrations to those pre-1950s even under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16601100, year = {2006}, author = {Barbraud, C and Weimerskirch, H}, title = {Antarctic birds breed later in response to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {103}, number = {16}, pages = {6248-6251}, pmid = {16601100}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Birds/*physiology ; *Breeding ; *Climate ; }, abstract = {In the northern hemisphere, there is compelling evidence for climate-related advances of spring events, but no such long-term biological time series exist for the southern hemisphere. We have studied a unique data set of dates of first arrival and laying of first eggs over a 55-year period for the entire community of Antarctic seabirds in East Antarctica. The records over this long period show a general unexpected tendency toward later arrival and laying, an inverse trend to those observed in the northern hemisphere. Overall, species now arrive at their colonies 9.1 days later, on average, and lay eggs an average of 2.1 days later than in the early 1950s. Furthermore, these delays are linked to a decrease in sea ice extent that has occurred in eastern Antarctica, which underlies the contrasted effects of global climate change on species in Antarctica.}, }
@article {pmid16599971, year = {2006}, author = {Krauss, SL and He, T and Lamont, BB and Miller, BP and Enright, NJ}, title = {Late Quaternary climate change and spatial genetic structure in the shrub Banksia hookeriana.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {1125-1137}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2006.02860.x}, pmid = {16599971}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; *Climate ; Geography/methods ; Phylogeny ; Polymorphism, Genetic ; Proteaceae/*genetics ; Western Australia ; }, abstract = {Spatial genetic variation within species is influenced by both contemporary and historical factors. We attempted to assess the impact of increased aridity and lower temperatures associated with the last glacial maximum on possible refugia and the structuring of genetic variation in Banksia hookeriana, a shrub species restricted to deep sands on the Eneabba sandplain and adjacent Gingin Scarp/Dandaragan Plateau, centred 300 km north of Perth, Western Australia. We used optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to estimate the last time these sands were mobile, as well as amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP) to infer spatial patterns and the phylogeographical history of genetic variation among 15 populations of B. hookeriana. While genetic variation at the species level was high, with 96.6% of 238 AFLP markers polymorphic, average within population gene diversity was low (H(pop) = 0.16). Of the total genetic variation, an analysis of molecular variance (amova) partitioned 70% within populations, 24% among populations within substrate and 6% between substrates. There was an isolation-by-distance effect among populations within the same substrate, but not across substrates, and ordination highlighted genetic differentiation between the sandplain and scarp/plateau populations. A neighbour-joining tree identified the sandplain populations as a distinct clade, with the exception of the most northern sandplain population, which clustered with two northern and eastern plateau populations. The most southern plateau populations formed a clade sister to the sandplain clade. OSL dating of sand at six extant populations suggested that dunes were last mobile 15,000-35,000 years ago, with no clear difference in the ages of sandplain and plateau dunes. These data are consistent with a historical scenario of (re)colonization from isolated refugia of smaller populations either within the patchily vegetated sandplain and/or refugia at the northern, eastern and southern sandplain/scarp margins following postglacial climate amelioration and dune stabilization. Historic interpretations were confounded by the possible effects of long-distance dispersal, natural selection by substrate, and weak and/or ancient introgression with the sister species, Banksia prionotes.}, }
@article {pmid16595623, year = {2006}, author = {Patz, JA and Olson, SH}, title = {Malaria risk and temperature: influences from global climate change and local land use practices.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {103}, number = {15}, pages = {5635-5636}, pmid = {16595623}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; Agriculture/*trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/mortality/transmission ; Risk Factors ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid16595432, year = {2006}, author = {Wilson, N and Wallace, C}, title = {Climate change control and injury prevention: more win-win solutions.}, journal = {Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {135}, pmid = {16595432}, issn = {1353-8047}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Conservation of Energy Resources/economics ; Gasoline ; Humans ; Wounds and Injuries/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid16580049, year = {2006}, author = {Kaste, &#xd8; and Wright, RF and Barkved, LJ and Bjerkeng, B and Engen-Skaugen, T and Magnusson, J and Saelthun, NR}, title = {Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and FJORD system.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {365}, number = {1-3}, pages = {200-222}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.02.035}, pmid = {16580049}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Acid Rain ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Chemical Precipitation ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Eutrophication ; Forecasting ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Nitrogen/*analysis/metabolism ; Nitrogen Oxides/analysis ; Norway ; Rivers/*chemistry ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; Water Supply/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Dynamically downscaled data from two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI), Germany and HadAm3H from the Hadley Centre (HAD), UK, driven with two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (IS92a and A2, respectively) were used to make climate change projections. These projections were then used to drive four effect models linked to assess the effects on hydrology, and nitrogen (N) concentrations and fluxes, in the Bjerkreim river basin (685-km(2)) and its coastal fjord, southwestern Norway. The four effect models were the hydrological model HBV, the water quality models MAGIC, INCA-N and the NIVA FJORD model. The downscaled climate scenarios project a general temperature increase in the study region of approximately 1 degrees C by 2030-2049 (MPI IS92a) and approximately 3 degrees C by 2071-2100 (HAD A2). Both scenarios imply increased winter precipitation, whereas the projections of summer and autumn precipitation are quite different, with the MPI scenario projecting a slight increase and the HAD scenario a significant decrease. As a response to increased winter temperature, the HBV model simulates a dramatic reduction of snow accumulation in the upper parts of the catchment, which in turn lead to higher runoff during winter and lower runoff during snowmelt in the spring. With the HAD scenario, runoff in summer and early autumn is substantially reduced as a result of reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and thereby increased evapotranspiration. The water quality models, MAGIC and INCA-N project no major changes in nitrate (NO(3)(-)) concentrations and fluxes within the MPI scenario, but a significant increase in concentrations and a 40-50% increase in fluxes in the HAD scenario. As a consequence, the acidification of the river could increase, thus offsetting ongoing recovery from acidification due to reductions in acid deposition. Additionally, the increased N loading may stimulate growth of N-limited benthic algae and macrophytes along the river channels and lead to undesirable eutrophication effects in the estuarine area. Simulations made by the FJORD model and the HAD scenario indicate that primary production in the estuary might increase up to 15-20%, based on the climate-induced changes in river flow and nitrate concentrations alone.}, }
@article {pmid16564760, year = {2006}, author = {Oxman, R}, title = {Response to "Science, skepticism, and global warming".}, journal = {The American journal of medicine}, volume = {119}, number = {4}, pages = {e13; author reply e15}, doi = {10.1016/j.amjmed.2005.08.047}, pmid = {16564760}, issn = {1555-7162}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Literature ; Science ; }, }
@article {pmid16562768, year = {2006}, author = {Harrison, D}, title = {Peak oil, climate change, public health and well-being.}, journal = {The journal of the Royal Society for the Promotion of Health}, volume = {126}, number = {2}, pages = {62-63}, doi = {10.1177/146642400612600203}, pmid = {16562768}, issn = {1466-4240}, mesh = {*Climate ; Petroleum/*supply &amp; distribution ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid16556828, year = {2006}, author = {Bindschadler, R}, title = {Climate change. Hitting the ice sheets where it hurts.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {311}, number = {5768}, pages = {1720-1721}, doi = {10.1126/science.1125226}, pmid = {16556828}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16556827, year = {2006}, author = {Joughin, I}, title = {Climate change. Greenland rumbles louder as glaciers accelerate.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {311}, number = {5768}, pages = {1719-1720}, doi = {10.1126/science.1124496}, pmid = {16556827}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16556816, year = {2006}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Along the road from Kyoto.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {311}, number = {5768}, pages = {1702-1703}, doi = {10.1126/science.311.5768.1702}, pmid = {16556816}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16556815, year = {2006}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. A worrying trend of less ice, higher seas.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {311}, number = {5768}, pages = {1698-1701}, doi = {10.1126/science.311.5768.1698}, pmid = {16556815}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16555606, year = {2005}, author = {Blaser, MJ}, title = {Theodore E. Woodward Award: Global warming and the human stomach: microecology follows macroecology.}, journal = {Transactions of the American Clinical and Climatological Association}, volume = {116}, number = {}, pages = {65-75; discussion 75-6}, pmid = {16555606}, issn = {0065-7778}, support = {R01 GM62370/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Antigens, Bacterial/genetics ; Awards and Prizes ; Bacterial Proteins/genetics ; Ecosystem ; Esophageal Neoplasms/etiology ; Gastritis/etiology ; Gastroesophageal Reflux/etiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Helicobacter Infections/complications ; Helicobacter pylori/genetics/*isolation &amp; purification/pathogenicity ; Humans ; Peptic Ulcer/etiology ; Risk Factors ; Societies, Medical ; Stomach/*microbiology ; Stomach Neoplasms/etiology ; United States ; }, abstract = {Just as there have been 20th century changes in our "macroecology," including global warming, there have been alterations in our "microecology," involving the microbial populations that colonize the human body. Helicobacterpylori, an ancient inhabitant of the human stomach, has been disappearing over the course of the 20th century. As such, by comparing H. pylori+ and H. pylori- persons, the consequences of its colonization can be determined. The presence of H. pylori is associated with increased risk for development of gastric cancer and peptic ulceration, and with decreased risk for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and its sequelae, including esophageal adenocarcinoma. The disappearance of H. pylori (especially cag+ strains), possibly contributing to the risk of these esophageal diseases, may be an indicator for changing human microecology.}, }
@article {pmid16553315, year = {2006}, author = {Lewis, OT}, title = {Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {361}, number = {1465}, pages = {163-171}, pmid = {16553315}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Biological Evolution ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {An article published in the journal Nature in January 2004-in which an international team of biologists predicted that climate change would, by 2050, doom 15-37% of the earth's species to extinction-attracted unprecedented, worldwide media attention. The predictions conflict with the conventional wisdom that habitat change and modification are the most important causes of current and future extinctions. The new extinction projections come from applying a well-known ecological pattern, the species-area relationship (SAR), to data on the current distributions and climatic requirements of 1103 species. Here, I examine the scientific basis to the claims made in the Nature article. I first highlight the potential and pitfalls of using the SAR to predict extinctions in general. I then consider the additional complications that arise when applying SAR methods specifically to climate change. I assess the extent to which these issues call into question predictions of extinctions from climate change relative to other human impacts, and highlight a danger that conservation resources will be directed away from attempts to slow and mitigate the continuing effects of habitat destruction and degradation, particularly in the tropics. I suggest that the most useful contributions of ecologists over the coming decades will be in partitioning likely extinctions among interacting causes and identifying the practical means to slow the rate of species loss.}, }
@article {pmid16549237, year = {2007}, author = {Jensen, TS and Jensen, JD and Hasler, B and Illerup, JB and Andersen, FM}, title = {Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {82}, number = {1}, pages = {133-143}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.12.017}, pmid = {16549237}, issn = {0301-4797}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Ammonia/analysis ; Climate ; Denmark ; Environmental Monitoring/*economics/*methods ; Environmental Pollution/*analysis ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Methane/analysis ; Models, Biological ; Models, Economic ; Nitrogen Oxides/analysis ; }, abstract = {Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.}, }
@article {pmid16542689, year = {2006}, author = {Haines, A and Kovats, RS and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Corvalan, C}, title = {Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability and public health.}, journal = {Public health}, volume = {120}, number = {7}, pages = {585-596}, doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2006.01.002}, pmid = {16542689}, issn = {0033-3506}, mesh = {*Atmosphere ; *Climate ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, abstract = {It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways, for example as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries may also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing a number of uses of the renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near-term by reducing exposure to air pollution.}, }
@article {pmid16537154, year = {2006}, author = {Hall, JW and Sayers, PB and Walkden, MJ and Panzeri, M}, title = {Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {364}, number = {1841}, pages = {1027-1049}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2006.1752}, pmid = {16537154}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Disasters/economics ; England ; Forecasting ; Oceans and Seas ; Risk Assessment/methods/standards ; Seawater ; Wales ; }, abstract = {Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flood risk, the expected annual damage in England and Wales due to coastal flooding is predicted to increase from the current 0.5 billion pounds to between 1.0 pound and 13.5 billion pounds, depending on the scenario of climate and socio-economic change. The proportion of national flood risk that is attributable to coastal flooding is projected to increase from roughly 50% to between 60 and 70%. Scenarios of adaptation to increasing risk, by construction of coastal dikes or retreat from coastal floodplains, are analysed. These adaptations are shown to be able to reduce coastal flood risk to between 0.2 pounds and 0.8 billion pounds. The capital cost of the associated coastal engineering works is estimated to be between 12 pounds and 40 billion pounds. Non-structural measures to reduce risk can make a major contribution to reducing the cost and environmental impact of engineering measures.}, }
@article {pmid16530580, year = {2006}, author = {McMichael, AJ and Woodruff, RE and Hales, S}, title = {Climate change and human health: present and future risks.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {367}, number = {9513}, pages = {859-869}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68079-3}, pmid = {16530580}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Aged ; Animals ; *Climate ; Communicable Diseases/*etiology ; *Disasters ; Female ; Food Supply ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health ; Humans ; Linear Models ; Male ; Mortality ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {There is near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will change Earth's climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0.5 degrees C is partly attributable to such anthropogenic emissions. Climate change will affect human health in many ways-mostly adversely. Here, we summarise the epidemiological evidence of how climate variations and trends affect various health outcomes. We assess the little evidence there is that recent global warming has already affected some health outcomes. We review the published estimates of future health effects of climate change over coming decades. Research so far has mostly focused on thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, with some attention to estimates of future regional food yields and hunger prevalence. An emerging broader approach addresses a wider spectrum of health risks due to the social, demographic, and economic disruptions of climate change. Evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will strengthen the case for pre-emptive policies, and will also guide priorities for planned adaptive strategies.}, }
@article {pmid16525463, year = {2006}, author = {Davidson, EA and Janssens, IA}, title = {Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {440}, number = {7081}, pages = {165-173}, doi = {10.1038/nature04514}, pmid = {16525463}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Plants/metabolism ; Soil/*analysis ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Significantly more carbon is stored in the world's soils--including peatlands, wetlands and permafrost--than is present in the atmosphere. Disagreement exists, however, regarding the effects of climate change on global soil carbon stocks. If carbon stored belowground is transferred to the atmosphere by a warming-induced acceleration of its decomposition, a positive feedback to climate change would occur. Conversely, if increases of plant-derived carbon inputs to soils exceed increases in decomposition, the feedback would be negative. Despite much research, a consensus has not yet emerged on the temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition. Unravelling the feedback effect is particularly difficult, because the diverse soil organic compounds exhibit a wide range of kinetic properties, which determine the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of their decomposition. Moreover, several environmental constraints obscure the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of substrate decomposition, causing lower observed 'apparent' temperature sensitivity, and these constraints may, themselves, be sensitive to climate.}, }
@article {pmid16525434, year = {2006}, author = {}, title = {Church joins crusade over climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {440}, number = {7081}, pages = {136-137}, doi = {10.1038/440136a}, pmid = {16525434}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid16520874, year = {2006}, author = {Prowse, TD and Beltaos, S and Gardner, JT and Gibson, JJ and Granger, RJ and Leconte, R and Peters, DL and Pietroniro, A and Romolo, LA and Toth, B}, title = {Climate change, flow regulation and land-use effects on the hydrology of the Peace-Athabasca-Slave System; findings from the Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {113}, number = {1-3}, pages = {167-197}, doi = {10.1007/s10661-005-9080-x}, pmid = {16520874}, issn = {0167-6369}, mesh = {Canada ; *Cold Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Rivers ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative (NREI) was established in the late 1990s to address important science questions resulting from previous studies undertaken by the Northern Rivers Basin Study (NRBS). This manuscript summarizes the results from a number of reports on hydrologic research conducted on the Peace-Athabasca-Slave river and lake systems. Specific concerns expressed by the NRBS and subsequent NREI focused on how these systems were being affected by climate change, flow regulation and land-use changes. Issues addressed in this report include: the fate of aquatic perched basins within the Peace-Athabasca Delta under historical and future climate trends; the sources of major floods that replenish these basins and how the frequency, magnitude and source areas of such events have changed over time; the synoptic weather patterns and atmospheric teleconnections that are responsible for the generation of major snowmelt runoff that drive major floods; the potential effect that climate and land-use changes might have on basin runoff and delta lake levels; the specific hydro-climatic conditions required to produce major ice-jam floods on the Peace River and how these may be altered by climate change; remote-sensing methods to document delta flooding and vegetation change; and the dual effect of climate and flow regulation on the water levels of Great Slave Lake and how these may affect other nearshore processes, particularly wind seiches, that influence flooding of the Slave River Delta. A review of the major findings and recommendations for future research concludes the report.}, }
@article {pmid16514516, year = {2006}, author = {Tryjanowski, P and Sparks, T and Rybacki, M and Berger, L}, title = {Is body size of the water frog Rana esculenta complex responding to climate change?.}, journal = {Die Naturwissenschaften}, volume = {93}, number = {3}, pages = {110-113}, pmid = {16514516}, issn = {0028-1042}, mesh = {Animals ; *Body Size ; *Climate ; Female ; Male ; Rana esculenta/*anatomy &amp; histology/classification/physiology ; Regression Analysis ; Species Specificity ; Water ; }, abstract = {Recent studies on climate responses in ectothermic (cold-blooded) vertebrates have been few in number and focussed on phenology rather than morphology. According to Bergmann's rule, endothermic (warm-blooded) vertebrates from cooler climates tend to be larger than congeners from warmer regions. Although amphibians are ectothermic vertebrates, weather and climatic conditions may also impact on their morphology, and thereby affect their survival rates and population dynamics. In this paper, we show, in a unique long-term study during the period 1963-2003 in an agricultural landscape in western Poland, that the body length of two water frog parental species (males of both Rana ridibunda and R. lessonae) increased significantly. However, their hybridogenetic hybrid R. esculenta did not show similar changes. A significant relationship with a large-scale climatic factor, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, was found positive for R. ridibunda males and R. lessonae females, and negative for R. esculenta females. Our findings, the first for amphibians, are consistent with other studies reporting that recent climate change has affected the morphology of animals. However, we also show that changes in amphibian phenotype linked to climate may vary independently between (even very similar) species.}, }
@article {pmid16513946, year = {2006}, author = {de Wit, M and Stankiewicz, J}, title = {Changes in surface water supply across Africa with predicted climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {311}, number = {5769}, pages = {1917-1921}, doi = {10.1126/science.1119929}, pmid = {16513946}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Across Africa, perennial drainage density as a function of mean annual rainfall defines three regimes separated by threshold values of precipitation. This nonlinear response of drainage to rainfall will most seriously affect regions in the intermediate, unstable regime. A 10% decrease in precipitation in regions on the upper regime boundary (1000 millimeters per year) would reduce drainage by 17%, whereas in regions receiving 500 millimeters per year, such a drop would cut 50% of surface drainage. By using predicted precipitation changes, we calculate that a decrease in perennial drainage will significantly affect present surface water access across 25% of Africa by the end of this century.}, }
@article {pmid16512866, year = {2006}, author = {Blanco, AV}, title = {Local initiatives and adaptation to climate change.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {140-147}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00311.x}, pmid = {16512866}, issn = {0361-3666}, mesh = {Community Networks/*organization &amp; administration ; Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Information Dissemination ; Organizations ; *Risk Management ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the number and strength of natural hazards produced by climatic events. This paper presents some examples of the experiences of community-based organisations (CBOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) of variations in climate, and looks at how they have incorporated their findings into the design and implementation of local adaptation strategies. Local organisations integrate climate change and climatic hazards into the design and development of their projects as a means of adapting to their new climatic situation. Projects designed to boost the resilience of local livelihoods are good examples of local adaptation strategies. To upscale these adaptation initiatives, there is a need to improve information exchange between CBOs, NGOs and academia. Moreover, there is a need to bridge the gap between scientific and local knowledge in order to create projects capable of withstanding stronger natural hazards.}, }
@article {pmid16512862, year = {2006}, author = {O'Brien, G and O'Keefe, P and Rose, J and Wisner, B}, title = {Climate change and disaster management.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {64-80}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00307.x}, pmid = {16512862}, issn = {0361-3666}, mesh = {Disaster Planning ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; Policy Making ; Risk Management/*organization &amp; administration ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.}, }
@article {pmid16512861, year = {2006}, author = {Bouwer, LM and Aerts, JC}, title = {Financing climate change adaptation.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {49-63}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00306.x}, pmid = {16512861}, issn = {0361-3666}, mesh = {Developing Countries ; Disaster Planning ; *Financial Support ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Risk Management/*economics ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability.}, }
@article {pmid16512859, year = {2006}, author = {Schipper, L and Pelling, M}, title = {Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope for, and challenges to, integration.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {19-38}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00304.x}, pmid = {16512859}, issn = {0361-3666}, mesh = {*Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *International Cooperation ; Risk Management/*organization &amp; administration ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Reducing losses to weather-related disasters, meeting the Millennium Development Goals and wider human development objectives, and implementing a successful response to climate change are aims that can only be accomplished if they are undertaken in an integrated manner. Currently, policy responses to address each of these independently may be redundant or, at worst, conflicting. We believe that this conflict can be attributed primarily to a lack of interaction and institutional overlap among the three communities of practice. Differences in language, method and political relevance may also contribute to the intellectual divide. Thus, this paper seeks to review the theoretical and policy linkages among disaster risk reduction, climate change and development. It finds that not only does action within one realm affect capacity for action in the others, but also that there is much that can be learnt and shared between realms in order to ensure a move towards a path of integrated and more sustainable development.}, }
@article {pmid16512858, year = {2006}, author = {van Aalst, MK}, title = {The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {5-18}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00303.x}, pmid = {16512858}, issn = {0361-3666}, mesh = {*Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Risk Assessment ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Human emissions of greenhouse gases are already changing our climate. This paper provides an overview of the relation between climate change and weather extremes, and examines three specific cases where recent acute events have stimulated debate on the potential role of climate change: the European heatwave of 2003; the risk of inland flooding, such as recently in Central Europe and Great Britain; and the harsh Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Furthermore, it briefly assesses the relation between climate change and El Niño, and the potential of abrupt climate change. Several trends in weather extremes are sufficiently clear to inform risk reduction efforts. In many instances, however, the potential increases in extreme events due to climate change come on top of alarming rises in vulnerability. Hence, the additional risks due to climate change should not be analysed or treated in isolation, but instead integrated into broader efforts to reduce the risk of natural disasters.}, }
@article {pmid16512857, year = {2006}, author = {Helmer, M and Hilhorst, D}, title = {Natural disasters and climate change.}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {1-4}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00302.x}, pmid = {16512857}, issn = {0361-3666}, mesh = {*Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid16507476, year = {2006}, author = {Paz, S}, title = {The West Nile Virus outbreak in Israel (2000) from a new perspective: the regional impact of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {1-13}, doi = {10.1080/09603120500392400}, pmid = {16507476}, issn = {0960-3123}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Disease Vectors ; Humans ; Humidity ; Israel/epidemiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Urban Population ; West Nile Fever/*epidemiology ; West Nile virus/*pathogenicity ; }, abstract = {The West Nile Virus (WNV) outbreak in Israel in 2000 appeared after medical and climatic warning signs. Re-analysis of the epidemic from a new viewpoint, the regional impact of global warming, especially the worsening in the summers' heat conditions, is presented. The disease appeared averagely at a lag of 3-9 weeks (strongest correlation = lag of 7 weeks). The minimum temperature was found as the most important climatic factor that encourages the disease earlier appearance. Extreme heat is more significant than high air humidity for increasing WNV cases. An early extreme rise in the summer temperature could be a good indicator of increased vector populations. While 93.5% of cases were in the metropolitan areas, the disease was not reported in the sub-arid regions. The outbreak development was comparable to the cases from Romania (1996) and NYC (1999). Each of those epidemics appeared after a long heatwave.}, }
@article {pmid16506977, year = {2005}, author = {Poumadère, M and Mays, C and Le Mer, S and Blong, R}, title = {The 2003 heat wave in France: dangerous climate change here and now.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1483-1494}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00694.x}, pmid = {16506977}, issn = {0272-4332}, mesh = {Europe ; France/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Heat Stress Disorders/history/mortality ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Weather ; }, abstract = {In an analysis of the French episode of heat wave in 2003, this article highlights how heat wave dangers result from the intricate association of natural and social factors. Unusually high temperatures, as well as socioeconomic vulnerability, along with social attenuation of hazards, in a general context where the anthropogenic contribution to climate change is becoming more plausible, led to an excess of 14,947 deaths in France, between August 4 and 18, 2003. The greatest increase in mortality was due to causes directly attributable to heat: dehydration, hyperthermia, heat stroke. In addition to age and gender, combinatorial factors included preexisting disease, medication, urban residence, isolation, poverty, and, probably, air pollution. Although diversely impacted or reported, many parts of Europe suffered human and other losses, such as farming and forestry through drought and fires. Summer 2003 was the hottest in Europe since 1500, very likely due in part to anthropogenic climate change. The French experience confirms research establishing that heat waves are a major mortal risk, number one among so-called natural hazards in postindustrial societies. Yet France had no policy in place, as if dangerous climate were restricted to a distant or uncertain future of climate change, or to preindustrial countries. We analyze the heat wave's profile as a strongly attenuated risk in the French context, as well as the causes and the effects of its sudden shift into amplification. Research and preparedness needs are highlighted.}, }
@article {pmid16506976, year = {2005}, author = {Smith, J}, title = {Dangerous news: media decision making about climate change risk.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1471-1482}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00693.x}, pmid = {16506976}, issn = {0272-4332}, abstract = {This article explores the role of broadcast news media decision makers in shaping public understanding and debate of climate change risks. It locates the media within a "tangled web" of communication and debate between sources, media, and publics. The article draws on new qualitative research in the British context. The main body of it focuses on media source strategies, on climate change storytelling in news, and the "myth of detachment" sustained by many news decision makers. The empirical evidence, gathered between 1997 and 2004, is derived primarily from recordings and notes drawn from a series of seminars that has brought together equal numbers of BBC news and television decision makers and environment/development specialists. The seminars have created a rare space for extended dialogue between media and specialist perspectives on the communication of complex climate change science and policy. While the article acknowledges the distinctive nature of the BBC as a public sector broadcaster, the evidence confirms and extends current understanding of the career of climate change within the media more broadly. The working group discussions have explored issues arising out of how stories are sourced and, in the context of competitive and time-pressured newsrooms, shaped and presented in short news pieces. Particularly significant is the disjuncture between ways of talking about uncertainty within science and policy discourse and media constructions of objectivity, truth, and balance. The article concludes with a summary of developments in media culture, technology, and practice that are creating opportunities for enhanced public understanding and debate of climate change risks. It also indicates the need for science and policy communities to be more active critics and sources of news.}, }
@article {pmid16506975, year = {2005}, author = {Carvalho, A and Burgess, J}, title = {Cultural circuits of climate change in U.K. broadsheet newspapers, 1985-2003.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1457-1469}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00692.x}, pmid = {16506975}, issn = {0272-4332}, abstract = {This article argues for a cultural perspective to be brought to bear on studies of climate change risk perception. Developing the "circuit of culture" model, the article maintains that the producers and consumers of media texts are jointly engaged in dynamic, meaning-making activities that are context-specific and that change over time. A critical discourse analysis of climate change based on a database of newspaper reports from three U.K. broadsheet papers over the period 1985-2003 is presented. This empirical study identifies three distinct circuits of climate change-1985-1990, 1991-1996, 1997-2003-which are characterized by different framings of risks associated with climate change. The article concludes that there is evidence of social learning as actors build on their experiences in relation to climate change science and policy making. Two important factors in shaping the U.K.'s broadsheet newspapers' discourse on "dangerous" climate change emerge as the agency of top political figures and the dominant ideological standpoints in different newspapers.}, }
@article {pmid16506974, year = {2005}, author = {Niemeyer, S and Petts, J and Hobson, K}, title = {Rapid climate change and society: assessing responses and thresholds.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1443-1456}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00691.x}, pmid = {16506974}, issn = {0272-4332}, abstract = {Assessing the social risks associated with climate change requires an understanding of how humans will respond because it affects how well societies will adapt. In the case of rapid or dangerous climate change, of particular interest is the potential for these responses to cross thresholds beyond which they become maladaptive. To explore the possibility of such thresholds, a series of climate change scenarios were presented to U.K. participants whose subjective responses were recorded via interviews and surveyed using Q methodology. The results indicate an initially adaptive response to climate warming followed by a shift to maladaptation as the magnitude of change increases. Beyond this threshold, trust in collective action and institutions was diminished, negatively impacting adaptive capacity. Climate cooling invoked a qualitatively different response, although this may be a product of individuals being primed for warming because it has dominated public discourse. The climate change scenarios used in this research are severe by climatological standards. In reality, the observed responses might occur at a lower rate of change. Whatever the case, analysis of subjectivity has revealed potential for maladaptive human responses, constituting a dangerous or rapid climate threshold within the social sphere.}, }
@article {pmid16506973, year = {2005}, author = {Leiserowitz, AA}, title = {American risk perceptions: is climate change dangerous?.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1433-1442}, doi = {10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00690.x}, pmid = {16506973}, issn = {0272-4332}, abstract = {Public risk perceptions can fundamentally compel or constrain political, economic, and social action to address particular risks. Public support or opposition to climate policies (e.g., treaties, regulations, taxes, subsidies) will be greatly influenced by public perceptions of the risks and dangers posed by global climate change. This article describes results from a national study (2003) that examined the risk perceptions and connotative meanings of global warming in the American mind and found that Americans perceived climate change as a moderate risk that will predominantly impact geographically and temporally distant people and places. This research also identified several distinct interpretive communities, including naysayers and alarmists, with widely divergent perceptions of climate change risks. Thus, "dangerous" climate change is a concept contested not only among scientists and policymakers, but among the American public as well.}, }
@article {pmid16506972, year = {2005}, author = {Arnell, NW and Tompkins, EL and Adger, WN}, title = {Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1419-1431}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00689.x}, pmid = {16506972}, issn = {0272-4332}, abstract = {The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations.}, }
@article {pmid16506971, year = {2005}, author = {Kovats, RS and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Matthies, F}, title = {Climate change and human health: estimating avoidable deaths and disease.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1409-1418}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00688.x}, pmid = {16506971}, issn = {0272-4332}, mesh = {Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Preventive Medicine ; Public Health ; Public Policy ; Risk Assessment ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Human population health has always been central in the justification for sustainable development but nearly invisible in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations. Current scientific evidence indicates that climate change will contribute to the global burden of disease through increases in diarrhoeal disease, vector-borne disease, and malnutrition, and the health impacts of extreme weather and climate events. A few studies have estimated future potential health impacts of climate change but often generate little policy-relevant information. Robust estimates of future health impacts rely on robust projections of future disease patterns. The application of a standardized and established methodology has been developed to quantify the impact of climate change in relation to different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. All health risk assessments are necessarily biased toward conservative best-estimates of health effects that are easily measured. Global, regional, and national risk assessments can take no account of irreversibility, or plausible low-probability events with potentially very high burdens on human health. There is no "safe limit" of climate change with respect to health impacts as health systems in some regions do not adequately cope with the current climate variability. Current scientific methods cannot identify global threshold health effects in order for policymakers to regulate a "tolerable" amount of climate change. We argue for the need for more research to reduce the potential impacts of climate change on human health, including the development of improved methods for quantitative risk assessment. The large uncertainty about the future effects of climate change on human population health should be a reason to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and not a reason for inaction.}, }
@article {pmid16506969, year = {2005}, author = {Lorenzoni, I and Pidgeon, NF and O'Connor, RE}, title = {Dangerous climate change: the role for risk research.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {25}, number = {6}, pages = {1387-1398}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00686.x}, pmid = {16506969}, issn = {0272-4332}, abstract = {The notion of "dangerous climate change" constitutes an important development of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It persists, however, as an ambiguous expression, sustained by multiple definitions of danger. It also implicitly contains the question of how to respond to the complex and multi-disciplinary risk issues that climate change poses. The invaluable role of the climate science community, which relies on risk assessments to characterize system uncertainties and to identify limits beyond which changes may become dangerous, is acknowledged. But this alone will not suffice to develop long-term policy. Decisions need to include other considerations, such as value judgments about potential risks, and societal and individual perceptions of "danger," which are often contested. This article explores links and cross-overs between the climate science and risk communication and perception approaches to defining danger. Drawing upon nine articles in this Special Issue of Risk Analysis, we examine a set of themes: limits of current scientific understanding; differentiated public perceptions of danger from climate change; social and cultural processes amplifying and attenuating perceptions of, and responses to, climate change; risk communication design; and new approaches to climate change decision making. The article reflects upon some of the difficulties inherent in responding to the issue in a coherent, interdisciplinary fashion, concluding nevertheless that action should be taken, while acknowledging the context-specificity of "danger." The need for new policy tools is emphasised, while research on nested solutions should be aimed at overcoming the disjunctures apparent in interpretations of climate change risks.}, }
@article {pmid16499931, year = {2006}, author = {Moorcroft, PR and Pacala, SW and Lewis, MA}, title = {Potential role of natural enemies during tree range expansions following climate change.}, journal = {Journal of theoretical biology}, volume = {241}, number = {3}, pages = {601-616}, doi = {10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.12.019}, pmid = {16499931}, issn = {0022-5193}, mesh = {Ecosystem ; Fagus/growth &amp; development ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; Plant Diseases/microbiology ; Species Specificity ; Trees/*growth &amp; development/microbiology ; Tsuga/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Recent investigations have shown how chance, long-range dispersal events can allow tree populations to migrate rapidly in response to changes in climate. However, this apparent solution to Reid's paradox applies solely within the context of single species models, while the rapid migration rates seen in pollen records occurred within multispecies communities. Ecologists are therefore presented with a new challenge: reconciling the macroscopic dynamics of spread seen in the pollen record with the rules and interactions governing plant community assembly. A case that highlights this issue is the rapid spread of Beech during the Holocene into a landscape already dominated by a close competitor, Hemlock. In this study, we analyse a simple model of plant community assembly incorporating competition for space and dispersal dynamics, showing how, even when a species is capable of rapid migration into an empty landscape, the presence of an ecologically similar competitor causes Reid's paradox to re-emerge because of the dramatic slowing effect of competitive interactions on a species' rate of spread. We then show how the answer to the question of how tree species dispersed rapidly into occupied landscapes may lie in secondary interactions with host-specific pathogens and parasites. Inclusion of host-specific pathogens into the simple community assembly model illustrates how tree species undergoing range expansions can temporarily outstrip specialist predators, giving rise to a transient Jansen-Connell effect, in which the invader acts as temporary 'super-species' that spreads rapidly into communities already occupied by competitors at rates consistent with those observed in the paleo-record.}, }
@article {pmid16497890, year = {2006}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Science and religion. Evangelicals, scientists reach common ground on climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {311}, number = {5764}, pages = {1082-1083}, doi = {10.1126/science.311.5764.1082a}, pmid = {16497890}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16488897, year = {2006}, author = {Sunyer, J and Grimalt, J}, title = {Global climate change, widening health inequalities, and epidemiology.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, pages = {213-216}, doi = {10.1093/ije/dyl025}, pmid = {16488897}, issn = {0300-5771}, mesh = {*Epidemiologic Methods ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; Humans ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid16456045, year = {2006}, author = {Clery, D}, title = {Global warming. Climate change demands action, says U.K. report.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {311}, number = {5761}, pages = {592}, doi = {10.1126/science.311.5761.592b}, pmid = {16456045}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16447114, year = {2006}, author = {Donaldson, GC}, title = {Climate change and the end of the respiratory syncytial virus season.}, journal = {Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America}, volume = {42}, number = {5}, pages = {677-679}, doi = {10.1086/500208}, pmid = {16447114}, issn = {1537-6591}, mesh = {England/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/*epidemiology ; *Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The seasons associated with laboratory isolation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (for 1981-2004) and RSV-related emergency department admissions (for 1990-2004) ended 3.1 and 2.5 weeks earlier, respectively, per 1 degrees C increase in annual central England temperature (P=.002 and .043, respectively). Climate change may be shortening the RSV season.}, }
@article {pmid16440611, year = {2005}, author = {Warren, JA and Berner, JE and Curtis, T}, title = {Climate change and human health: infrastructure impacts to small remote communities in the north.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {64}, number = {5}, pages = {487-497}, doi = {10.3402/ijch.v64i5.18030}, pmid = {16440611}, issn = {1239-9736}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Cold Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health Administration ; *Rural Population ; Sanitation ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16440610, year = {2005}, author = {Parkinson, AJ and Butler, JC}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on infectious diseases in the Arctic.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {64}, number = {5}, pages = {478-486}, doi = {10.3402/ijch.v64i5.18029}, pmid = {16440610}, issn = {1239-9736}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions/epidemiology ; *Climate ; Food Microbiology ; Humans ; Infections/*epidemiology/*microbiology/transmission ; Insect Vectors ; Public Health Administration ; Sentinel Surveillance ; Water Microbiology ; Weather ; Zoonoses/epidemiology/microbiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change could cause changes in the incidence of infectious diseases in Arctic regions. Higher ambient temperatures in the Arctic may result in an increase in some temperature sensitive foodborne diseases such as gastroenteritis, paralytic shellfish poisoning and botulism. An increase in mean temperature may also influence the incidence of infectious diseases of animals that are spread to humans (zoonoses) by changing the population and range of animal hosts and insect vectors. An increase in flooding events may result in outbreaks of waterborne infection, such as Giardia lamblia or Cryptospordium parvum. A change in rodent and fox populations may result in an increase in rabies or echinococcosis. Temperature and humidity influence the distribution and density of many arthropod vectors which in turn may influence the incidence and northern range of vectorborne diseases such as West Nile virus. Recommendations include: the strenghtening of public health systems, disease surveillance coordinated with climate monitoring, and research into the detection, prevention, control and treatment of temperature-sensitive infectious diseases.}, }
@article {pmid16440609, year = {2005}, author = {Bradley, M and Kutz, SJ and Jenkins, E and O'Hara, TM}, title = {The potential impact of climate change on infectious diseases of Arctic fauna.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {64}, number = {5}, pages = {468-477}, doi = {10.3402/ijch.v64i5.18028}, pmid = {16440609}, issn = {1239-9736}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; Animals, Domestic/microbiology ; Arctic Regions/epidemiology ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/microbiology ; Cold Climate ; Disease Outbreaks ; Fishes/microbiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Infections/*epidemiology/*microbiology/transmission ; Insect Vectors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is already affecting Arctic species including infectious disease agents and greater changes are expected. Some infectious diseases are already increasing but future changes are difficult to predict because of the complexity of host-agent-environment relationships. However mechanisms related to climate change that will influence disease patterns are understood. Warmer temperatures will benefit free living bacteria and parasites whose survival and development is limited by temperature. Warmer temperatures could promote survivability, shorter development rates and transmission. Insects such as mosquitoes and ticks that transmit disease agents may also benefit from climate change as well as the diseases they spread. Climate change will have significant impacts on biodiversity. Disease agents of species that benefit from warming will likely become more prevalent. Host species stressed by changing environmental conditions may be more vulnerable to disease agents. Warming could lead to increased agriculture and other economic opportunities in the Arctic bringing people, domestic food animals, pets and invasive species and their disease agents into Northern regions. Climate warming may also favor the release of persistent environmental pollutants some of which can affect the immune system and may favor increased rates of some diseases.}, }
@article {pmid16440605, year = {2005}, author = {Furgal, CM}, title = {Monitoring as a community response for climate change and health.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {64}, number = {5}, pages = {440-441}, doi = {10.3402/ijch.v64i5.18024}, pmid = {16440605}, issn = {1239-9736}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Cold Climate ; Disaster Planning/*organization &amp; administration ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid16440603, year = {2005}, author = {Berner, JE}, title = {Climate change and health in the circumpolar north.}, journal = {International journal of circumpolar health}, volume = {64}, number = {5}, pages = {435-437}, doi = {10.3402/ijch.v64i5.18022}, pmid = {16440603}, issn = {1239-9736}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Cold Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid16440476, year = {2006}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {Climate-change challenge continues.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {R1-R2}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2005.12.014}, pmid = {16440476}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid16439650, year = {2006}, author = {Behrensmeyer, AK}, title = {Atmosphere. Climate change and human evolution.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {311}, number = {5760}, pages = {476-478}, doi = {10.1126/science.1116051}, pmid = {16439650}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; Culture ; Ecosystem ; *Fossils ; Geological Phenomena ; Geology ; *Hominidae ; Humans ; Paleontology ; Time ; }, }
@article {pmid16439646, year = {2006}, author = {Hansen, JE}, title = {Avoiding climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {311}, number = {5760}, pages = {469-470}, doi = {10.1126/science.311.5760.469b}, pmid = {16439646}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16437070, year = {2006}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {The costs of global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {439}, number = {7075}, pages = {374-375}, doi = {10.1038/439374a}, pmid = {16437070}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Developed Countries/economics ; Developing Countries/economics ; Disasters ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ice Cover ; International Cooperation ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid16435746, year = {2005}, author = {Arheimer, B and Andréasson, J and Fogelberg, S and Johnsson, H and Pers, CB and Persson, K}, title = {Climate change impact on water quality: model results from southern Sweden.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {34}, number = {7}, pages = {559-566}, pmid = {16435746}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; *Eutrophication ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Geography ; *Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/analysis ; Phosphorus/analysis ; Soil/analysis ; Sweden ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Starting from six regional climate change scenarios, nitrogen leaching from arable-soil, water discharge, and nitrogen retention was modeled in the Rönneå catchment. Additionally, biological response was modeled in the eutrophic Lake Ringsjön. The results are compared with similar studies on other catchments. All scenarios gave similar impact on water quality but varied in quantities. However, one scenario resulted in a different transport pattern due to less-pronounced seasonal variations in the hydrology. On average, the study shows that, in a future climate, we might expect: i) increased concentrations of nitrogen in the arable root zone (+50%) and in the river (+13%); ii) increased annual load of nitrogen from land to sea (+22%) due to more pronounced winter high flow; moreover, remote areas in the catchment may start to contribute to the outlet load; iii) radical changes in lake biochemistry with increased concentrations of total phosphorus (+50%), total nitrogen (+20%), and planktonic algae such as cyanobacteria (+80%).}, }
@article {pmid16433100, year = {2005}, author = {Erda, L and Wei, X and Hui, J and Yinlong, X and Yue, L and Liping, B and Liyong, X}, title = {Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {360}, number = {1463}, pages = {2149-2154}, pmid = {16433100}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; China ; *Climate ; *Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development/metabolism/standards/supply &amp; distribution ; Food Supply ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {A regional climate change model (PRECIS) for China, developed by the UK's Hadley Centre, was used to simulate China's climate and to develop climate change scenarios for the country. Results from this project suggest that, depending on the level of future emissions, the average annual temperature increase in China by the end of the twenty-first century may be between 3 and 4 degrees C. Regional crop models were driven by PRECIS output to predict changes in yields of key Chinese food crops: rice, maize and wheat. Modelling suggests that climate change without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization could reduce the rice, maize and wheat yields by up to 37% in the next 20-80 years. Interactions of CO2 with limiting factors, especially water and nitrogen, are increasingly well understood and capable of strongly modulating observed growth responses in crops. More complete reporting of free-air carbon enrichment experiments than was possible in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report confirms that CO2 enrichment under field conditions consistently increases biomass and yields in the range of 5-15%, with CO2 concentration elevated to 550 ppm Levels of CO2 that are elevated to more than 450 ppm will probably cause some deleterious effects in grain quality. It seems likely that the extent of the CO2 fertilization effect will depend upon other factors such as optimum breeding, irrigation and nutrient applications.}, }
@article {pmid16433099, year = {2005}, author = {Gregory, PJ and Ingram, JS and Brklacich, M}, title = {Climate change and food security.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {360}, number = {1463}, pages = {2139-2148}, pmid = {16433099}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods/*standards ; *Climate ; Commerce ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Growth ; Temperature ; Urbanization ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16433098, year = {2005}, author = {Parry, M and Rosenzweig, C and Livermore, M}, title = {Climate change, global food supply and risk of hunger.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {360}, number = {1463}, pages = {2125-2138}, pmid = {16433098}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Africa ; *Climate ; Commerce ; Edible Grain/growth &amp; development ; *Food Supply/economics ; *Global Health ; Humans ; *Hunger ; *Models, Theoretical ; Public Health ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {This paper reports the results of a series of research projects which have aimed to evaluate the implications of climate change for food production and risk of hunger. There are three sets of results: (a) for IS92a (previously described as a 'business-as-usual' climate scenario); (b) for stabilization scenarios at 550 and 750 ppm and (c) for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The main conclusions are: (i) the region of greatest risk is Africa; (ii) stabilization at 750 ppm avoids some but not most of the risk, while stabilization at 550 ppm avoids most of the risk and (iii) the impact of climate change on risk of hunger is influenced greatly by pathways of development. For example, a SRES B2 development pathway is characterized by much lower levels of risk than A2; and this is largely explained by differing levels of income and technology not by differing amounts of climate forcing.}, }
@article {pmid16433094, year = {2005}, author = {Fischer, G and Shah, M and Tubiello, FN and van Velhuizen, H}, title = {Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {360}, number = {1463}, pages = {2067-2083}, pmid = {16433094}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Agriculture/*economics/*methods ; Biometry ; *Climate ; *Food Supply ; Forecasting ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Growth ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16433089, year = {2005}, author = {Huntingford, C and Lambert, FH and Gash, JH and Taylor, CM and Challinor, AJ}, title = {Aspects of climate change prediction relevant to crop productivity.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {360}, number = {1463}, pages = {1999-2009}, pmid = {16433089}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Africa, Northern ; Africa, Western ; *Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development/standards/supply &amp; distribution ; *Food Supply ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; *Models, Theoretical ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Projected changes in surface climate are reviewed at a range of temporal scales, with an emphasis on tropical northern Africa--a region considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Noting the key aspects of 'weather' affecting crop yield, we then consider relevant and projected change using output from a range of state of the art global climate models (GCMs), and for different future emission scenarios. The outputs from the models reveal significant inter-model variation in the change expected by the end of the twenty-first century for even the lowest IPCC emission scenario. We provide a set of recommendations on future model diagnostics, configurations and ease of use to close further the gap between GCMs and smaller-scale crop models. This has the potential to empower countries to make their own assessments of vulnerability to climate change induced periods of food scarcity.}, }
@article {pmid16432187, year = {2006}, author = {Hunt, G and Roy, K}, title = {Climate change, body size evolution, and Cope's Rule in deep-sea ostracodes.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {103}, number = {5}, pages = {1347-1352}, pmid = {16432187}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Body Constitution ; Body Size ; Climate ; Cold Temperature ; Crustacea/*physiology ; Fossils ; Oceans and Seas ; Paleontology ; Phenotype ; Regression Analysis ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Causes of macroevolutionary trends in body size, such as Cope's Rule, the tendency of body size to increase over time, remain poorly understood. We used size measurements from Cenozoic populations of the ostracode genus Poseidonamicus, in conjunction with phylogeny and paleotemperature estimates, to show that climatic cooling leads to significant increases in body size, both overall and within individual lineages. The magnitude of size increase due to Cenozoic cooling is consistent with temperature-size relationships in geographically separated modern populations (Bergmann's Rule). Thus population-level phenotypic evolution in response to climate change can be an important determinant of macroevolutionary trends in body size.}, }
@article {pmid16424323, year = {2006}, author = {Wiener, JB and Stewart, RB and Hammitt, JK and Hourcade, JC}, title = {Madison and climate change policy.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {311}, number = {5759}, pages = {335-6; author reply 335-6}, doi = {10.1126/science.311.5759.335c}, pmid = {16424323}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16421567, year = {2006}, author = {Raper, SC and Braithwaite, RJ}, title = {Low sea level rise projections from mountain glaciers and icecaps under global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {439}, number = {7074}, pages = {311-313}, doi = {10.1038/nature04448}, pmid = {16421567}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {The mean sea level has been projected to rise in the 21st century as a result of global warming. Such projections of sea level change depend on estimated future greenhouse emissions and on differing models, but model-average results from a mid-range scenario (A1B) suggests a 0.387-m rise by 2100 (refs 1, 2). The largest contributions to sea level rise are estimated to come from thermal expansion (0.288 m) and the melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps (0.106 m), with smaller inputs from Greenland (0.024 m) and Antarctica (- 0.074 m). Here we apply a melt model and a geometric volume model to our lower estimate of ice volume and assess the contribution of glaciers to sea level rise, excluding those in Greenland and Antarctica. We provide the first separate assessment of melt contributions from mountain glaciers and icecaps, as well as an improved treatment of volume shrinkage. We find that icecaps melt more slowly than mountain glaciers, whose area declines rapidly in the 21st century, making glaciers a limiting source for ice melt. Using two climate models, we project sea level rise due to melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps to be 0.046 and 0.051 m by 2100, about half that of previous projections.}, }
@article {pmid16421539, year = {2006}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change: a sea change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {439}, number = {7074}, pages = {256-260}, doi = {10.1038/439256a}, pmid = {16421539}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate ; Europe ; Food Chain ; Greenhouse Effect ; Plankton/metabolism ; Rain ; *Temperature ; *Water Movements ; }, }
@article {pmid16415159, year = {2006}, author = {LeGrande, AN and Schmidt, GA and Shindell, DT and Field, CV and Miller, RL and Koch, DM and Faluvegi, G and Hoffmann, G}, title = {Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {103}, number = {4}, pages = {837-842}, pmid = {16415159}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate ; Cold Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Earth, Planet ; Environment ; Evolution, Planetary ; Greenhouse Effect ; Greenland ; Methane/chemistry ; Temperature ; Water ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Isotope, aerosol, and methane records document an abrupt cooling event across the Northern Hemisphere at 8.2 kiloyears before present (kyr), while separate geologic lines of evidence document the catastrophic drainage of the glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway into the Hudson Bay at approximately the same time. This melt water pulse may have been the catalyst for a decrease in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and subsequent cooling around the Northern Hemisphere. However, lack of direct evidence for ocean cooling has lead to speculation that this abrupt event was purely local to Greenland and called into question this proposed mechanism. We simulate the response to this melt water pulse using a coupled general circulation model that explicitly tracks water isotopes and with atmosphere-only experiments that calculate changes in atmospheric aerosol deposition (specifically (10)Be and dust) and wetland methane emissions. The simulations produce a short period of significantly diminished North Atlantic Deep Water and are able to quantitatively match paleoclimate observations, including the lack of isotopic signal in the North Atlantic. This direct comparison with multiple proxy records provides compelling evidence that changes in ocean circulation played a major role in this abrupt climate change event.}, }
@article {pmid16407945, year = {2006}, author = {Pounds, JA and Bustamante, MR and Coloma, LA and Consuegra, JA and Fogden, MP and Foster, PN and La Marca, E and Masters, KL and Merino-Viteri, A and Puschendorf, R and Ron, SR and Sánchez-Azofeifa, GA and Still, CJ and Young, BE}, title = {Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {439}, number = {7073}, pages = {161-167}, doi = {10.1038/nature04246}, pmid = {16407945}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Altitude ; Amphibians/*microbiology/*physiology ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Bufonidae/microbiology/physiology ; Costa Rica ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humidity ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Risk ; Temperature ; Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.}, }
@article {pmid16393363, year = {2006}, author = {Poulin, R}, title = {Global warming and temperature-mediated increases in cercarial emergence in trematode parasites.}, journal = {Parasitology}, volume = {132}, number = {Pt 1}, pages = {143-151}, doi = {10.1017/S0031182005008693}, pmid = {16393363}, issn = {0031-1820}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Snails/*parasitology ; *Temperature ; Trematoda/*growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Trematode Infections/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {Global warming can affect the world's biota and the functioning of ecosystems in many indirect ways. Recent evidence indicates that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of parasitic diseases, with potentially drastic consequences for their hosts. It is also possible that warmer conditions could promote the transmission of parasites and raise their local abundance. Here I have compiled experimental data on the effect of temperature on the emergence of infective stages (cercariae) of trematode parasites from their snail intermediate hosts. Temperature-mediated changes in cercarial output varied widely among trematode species, from small reductions to 200-fold increases in response to a 10 degrees C rise in temperature, with a geometric mean suggesting an almost 8-fold increase. Overall, the observed temperature-mediated increases in cercarial output are much more substantial than those expected from basic physiological processes, for which 2- to 3-fold increases are normally seen. Some of the most extreme increases in cercarial output may be artefacts of the methods used in the original studies; however, exclusion of these extreme values has little impact on the preceding conclusion. Across both species values and phylogenetically independent contrasts, neither the magnitude of the initial cercarial output nor the shell size of the snail host correlated with the relative increase in cercarial production mediated by rising temperature. In contrast, the latitude from which the snail-trematode association originated correlated negatively with temperature-mediated increases in cercarial production: within the 20 degrees to 55 degrees latitude range, trematodes from lower latitudes showed more pronounced temperature-driven increases in cercarial output than those from higher latitudes. These results suggest that the small increases in air and water temperature forecast by many climate models will not only influence the geographical distribution of some diseases, but may also promote the proliferation of their infective stages in many ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid16382927, year = {2005}, author = {Pednekar, AM and Grant, SB and Jeong, Y and Poon, Y and Oancea, C}, title = {Influence of climate change, tidal mixing, and watershed urbanization on historical water quality in Newport Bay, a saltwater wetland and tidal embayment in southern California.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {39}, number = {23}, pages = {9071-9082}, doi = {10.1021/es0504789}, pmid = {16382927}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {California ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Seawater ; Urbanization ; *Water ; }, abstract = {Historical coliform measurements (n = 67,269; 32 years) in Newport Bay, a regionally important saltwater wetland and tidal embayment in southern California, have been compiled and analyzed. Coliform concentrations in Newport Bay decrease along an inland-to-ocean gradient, consistent with the hypothesis that this tidal embayment attenuates fecal pollution from inland sources. Nearly 70% of the variability in the coliform record can be attributed to seasonal and interannual variability in local rainfall, implying that stormwater runoff from the surrounding watershed is a primary source of coliform in Newport Bay. The storm loading rate of coliform from the San Diego Creek watershed--the largest watershed draining into Newport Bay--appears to be unaffected by the dramatic shift away from agricultural land-use that occurred in the watershed over the study period. Further, the peak loading of coliform during storms is larger than can be reasonably attributed to sources of human sewage, suggesting that nonhuman fecal pollution and/or bacterial regrowth contribute to the coliform load. Summer time measurements of coliform exhibit interannual trends, but these trends are site specific, apparently due to within-Bay variability in land-use, inputs of dry-weather runoff, and tidal mixing rates. Overall, these results suggest that efforts to improve water quality in Newport Bay will likely have greater efficacy during dry weather summer periods. Water quality during winter storms, on the other hand, appears to be dominated by factors outside of local management control; namely, virtually unlimited nonhuman sources of coliform in the watershed and global climate patterns, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation, that modulate rainfall and stormwater runoff in southern California.}, }
@article {pmid16382921, year = {2005}, author = {Morgan, MG and Cantor, R and Clark, WC and Fisher, A and Jacoby, HD and Janetos, AC and Kinzig, AP and Melillo, J and Street, RB and Wilbanks, TJ}, title = {Learning from the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {39}, number = {23}, pages = {9023-9032}, doi = {10.1021/es050865i}, pmid = {16382921}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Climate ; Ecology ; Greenhouse Effect ; United States ; }, abstract = {The U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change was a federally coordinated nationwide effort that involved thousands of experts and stakeholders. To draw lessons from this effort, the 10 authors of this paper, half of whom were not involved in the Assessment, developed and administered an extensive survey, prepared a series of working papers, and conducted an invitational workshop in Washington, DC, on April 29, 2004. Considering all these sources, the authors conclude that the Assessment was largely successful in implementing its basic design of distributed stakeholder involvement and in achieving its basic objectives. Future assessments could be significantly improved if greater attention were devoted to developing a collective understanding of objectives, preparing guidance materials and providing training for assessment participants, developing a budgeting mechanism which would allow greater freedom in allocating resources across various assessment activities, and creating an environment in which assessments were part of an ongoing process.}, }
@article {pmid16382911, year = {2005}, author = {Thacker, PD}, title = {"Grassroots" global warming study.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {39}, number = {23}, pages = {472A}, pmid = {16382911}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Politics ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid16371953, year = {2005}, author = {Landsea, CW}, title = {Meteorology: hurricanes and global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {438}, number = {7071}, pages = {E11-2; discussion E13}, doi = {10.1038/nature04477}, pmid = {16371953}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Disasters/history/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Pacific Ocean ; Reproducibility of Results ; Seawater/analysis ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; United States ; Wind ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change has the potential for slightly increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones through warming of sea surface temperatures. Emanuel has shown a striking and surprising association between sea surface temperatures and destructiveness by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and western North Pacific basins. However, I question his analysis on the following grounds: it does not properly represent the observations described; the use of his Atlantic bias-removal scheme may not be warranted; and further investigation of a substantially longer time series for tropical cyclones affecting the continental United States does not show a tendency for increasing destructiveness. These factors indicate that instead of "unprecedented" tropical cyclone activity having occurred in recent years, hurricane intensity was equal or even greater during the last active period in the mid-twentieth century.}, }
@article {pmid16367837, year = {2006}, author = {Miller, MP and Bellinger, MR and Forsman, ED and Haig, SM}, title = {Effects of historical climate change, habitat connectivity, and vicariance on genetic structure and diversity across the range of the red tree vole (Phenacomys longicaudus) in the Pacific Northwestern United States.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {145-159}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2005.02765.x}, pmid = {16367837}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Animals ; Arvicolinae/*genetics ; Base Sequence ; *Climate ; Cluster Analysis ; DNA Primers ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; *Demography ; *Environment ; *Genetic Variation ; *Genetics, Population ; Geography ; Haplotypes/genetics ; Molecular Sequence Data ; Oregon ; *Phylogeny ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; }, abstract = {Phylogeographical analyses conducted in the Pacific Northwestern United States have often revealed concordant patterns of genetic diversity among taxa. These studies demonstrate distinct North/South genetic discontinuities that have been attributed to Pleistocene glaciation. We examined phylogeographical patterns of red tree voles (Phenacomys longicaudus) in western Oregon by analysing mitochondrial control region sequences for 169 individuals from 18 areas across the species' range. Cytochrome b sequences were also analysed from a subset of our samples to confirm the presence of major haplotype groups. Phylogenetic network analyses suggested the presence of two haplotype groups corresponding to northern and southern regions of P. longicaudus' range. Spatial genetic analyses (samova and Genetic Landscape Shapes) of control region sequences demonstrated a primary genetic discontinuity separating northern and southern sampling areas, while a secondary discontinuity separated northern sampling areas into eastern and western groups divided by the Willamette Valley. The North/South discontinuity likely corresponds to a region of secondary contact between lineages rather than an overt barrier. Although the Cordilleran ice sheet (maximum approximately 12,000 years ago) did not move southward to directly affect the region occupied by P. longicaudus, climate change during glaciation fragmented the forest landscape that it inhabits. Signatures of historical fragmentation were reflected by positive associations between latitude and variables such as Tajima's D and patterns associated with location-specific alleles. Genetic distances between southern sampling areas were smaller, suggesting that forest fragmentation was reduced in southern vs. northern regions.}, }
@article {pmid16366458, year = {2005}, author = {Vonnez, JL}, title = {[Calculating the impact of global warming on human health].}, journal = {Revue medicale suisse}, volume = {1}, number = {42}, pages = {2765}, pmid = {16366458}, issn = {1660-9379}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; }, }
@article {pmid16364407, year = {2006}, author = {Kang, S and Kimball, JS and Running, SW}, title = {Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {362}, number = {1-3}, pages = {85-102}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2005.11.014}, pmid = {16364407}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Canada ; Carbon ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Climate ; *Fires ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Reproducibility of Results ; Trees/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Water ; Weather ; }, abstract = {We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km(2) portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO2 resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T(a)), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 degrees C for T(a) and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients.}, }
@article {pmid16339435, year = {2005}, author = {Pielke, RA}, title = {Atmospheric science. Land use and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {310}, number = {5754}, pages = {1625-1626}, doi = {10.1126/science.1120529}, pmid = {16339435}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Atmosphere ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Temperature ; Trees ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid16332289, year = {2006}, author = {Jenkins, EJ and Veitch, AM and Kutz, SJ and Hoberg, EP and Polley, L}, title = {Climate change and the epidemiology of protostrongylid nematodes in northern ecosystems: Parelaphostrongylus odocoilei and Protostrongylus stilesi in Dall's sheep (Ovis d. dalli).}, journal = {Parasitology}, volume = {132}, number = {Pt 3}, pages = {387-401}, doi = {10.1017/S0031182005009145}, pmid = {16332289}, issn = {0031-1820}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Disease Vectors ; *Ecosystem ; Feces/parasitology ; Gastropoda/parasitology ; Larva/growth &amp; development ; Metastrongyloidea/*growth &amp; development/isolation &amp; purification ; Models, Biological ; Northwest Territories/epidemiology ; Prevalence ; Seasons ; Sheep ; Sheep Diseases/*epidemiology/*parasitology ; Strongylida Infections/epidemiology/parasitology/*veterinary ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {We describe the epidemiology of the protostrongylid parasites Parelaphostrongylus odocoilei and Protostrongylus stilesi in Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) from the Mackenzie Mountains, Northwest Territories, Canada (65 degrees N; 128 degrees W). Peak numbers of 1st-stage larvae of both parasites were shed by Dall's sheep on their winter range from March until May. In larval development experiments in the Mackenzie Mountains, peak numbers of infective 3rd-stage larvae of P. odocoilei were available in gastropod intermediate hosts in August-September. For both protostrongylids, the majority of transmission likely occurs on the winter range, with infection of gastropods when they emerge from hibernation in spring, and infection of Dall's sheep upon their return in fall. We validated a degree-day model for temperature-dependent development of larval P. odocoilei in gastropods, and applied degree-day models to describe and predict spatial and temporal patterns in development of P. odocoilei and P. stilesi in northern North America. Temperature-dependent larval development may currently limit northward range expansion of P. odocoilei into naïve populations of Dall's sheep in the Arctic, but climate warming may soon eliminate such constraints. In Subarctic regions where both P. odocoilei and P. stilesi are endemic, the length of the parasite 'growing season' (when temperatures were above the threshold for larval development) and amount of warming available for parasite development has increased over the last 50 years. Further climate warming and extension of the seasonal window for transmission may lead to amplification of parasite populations and disease outbreaks in host populations.}, }
@article {pmid16328547, year = {2006}, author = {Visser, ME and Holleman, LJ and Gienapp, P}, title = {Shifts in caterpillar biomass phenology due to climate change and its impact on the breeding biology of an insectivorous bird.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {147}, number = {1}, pages = {164-172}, pmid = {16328547}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomass ; Birds/*physiology ; *Breeding ; Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Moths/*physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Timing of reproduction has major fitness consequences, which can only be understood when the phenology of the food for the offspring is quantified. For insectivorous birds, like great tits (Parus major), synchronisation of their offspring needs and abundance of caterpillars is the main selection pressure. We measured caterpillar biomass over a 20-year period and showed that the annual peak date is correlated with temperatures from 8 March to 17 May. Laying dates also correlate with temperatures, but over an earlier period (16 March-20 April). However, as we would predict from a reliable cue used by birds to time their reproduction, also the food peak correlates with these temperatures. Moreover, the slopes of the phenology of the birds and caterpillar biomass, when regressed against the temperatures in this earlier period, do not differ. The major difference is that due to climate change, the relationship between the timing of the food peak and the temperatures over the 16 March-20 April period is changing, while this is not so for great tit laying dates. As a consequence, the synchrony between offspring needs and the caterpillar biomass has been disrupted in the recent warm decades. This may have severe consequences as we show that both the number of fledglings as well as their fledging weight is affected by this synchrony. We use the descriptive models for both the caterpillar biomass peak as for the great tit laying dates to predict shifts in caterpillar and bird phenology 2005-2100, using an IPCC climate scenario. The birds will start breeding earlier and this advancement is predicted to be at the same rate as the advancement of the food peak, and hence they will not reduce the amount of the current mistiming of about 10 days.}, }
@article {pmid16326762, year = {2005}, author = {Roberts, I and Hillman, M}, title = {Climate change: the implications for policy on injury control and health promotion.}, journal = {Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {326-329}, pmid = {16326762}, issn = {1353-8047}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/toxicity ; Climate ; Fossil Fuels/toxicity ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Health Promotion/*methods ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Transportation ; Wounds and Injuries/etiology/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid16322426, year = {2005}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global climate change. The Atlantic conveyor may have slowed, but don't panic yet.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {310}, number = {5753}, pages = {1403-1405}, doi = {10.1126/science.310.5753.1403}, pmid = {16322426}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16321998, year = {2005}, author = {Juniper, T}, title = {Global warming must be limited to 2 degrees C, scientists say.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {331}, number = {7528}, pages = {1287}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.331.7528.1287}, pmid = {16321998}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid16321777, year = {2005}, author = {Kutz, SJ and Hoberg, EP and Polley, L and Jenkins, EJ}, title = {Global warming is changing the dynamics of Arctic host-parasite systems.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {272}, number = {1581}, pages = {2571-2576}, pmid = {16321777}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Canada ; Ecosystem ; *Global Warming ; Host-Parasite Interactions/*physiology ; Ruminants/parasitology ; Seasons ; Strongylida/growth &amp; development/pathogenicity ; Strongylida Infections/parasitology/transmission/veterinary ; }, abstract = {Global climate change is altering the ecology of infectious agents and driving the emergence of disease in people, domestic animals, and wildlife. We present a novel, empirically based, predictive model for the impact of climate warming on development rates and availability of an important parasitic nematode of muskoxen in the Canadian Arctic, a region that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Using this model, we show that warming in the Arctic may have already radically altered the transmission dynamics of this parasite, escalating infection pressure for muskoxen, and that this trend is expected to continue. This work establishes a foundation for understanding responses to climate change of other host-parasite systems, in the Arctic and globally.}, }
@article {pmid16321776, year = {2005}, author = {Visser, ME and Both, C}, title = {Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {272}, number = {1581}, pages = {2561-2569}, pmid = {16321776}, issn = {1471-2954}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/physiology ; *Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Flight, Animal ; Food Chain ; Insecta/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Marine Biology ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate change has led to shifts in phenology in many species distributed widely across taxonomic groups. It is, however, unclear how we should interpret these shifts without some sort of a yardstick: a measure that will reflect how much a species should be shifting to match the change in its environment caused by climate change. Here, we assume that the shift in the phenology of a species' food abundance is, by a first approximation, an appropriate yardstick. We review the few examples that are available, ranging from birds to marine plankton. In almost all of these examples, the phenology of the focal species shifts either too little (five out of 11) or too much (three out of 11) compared to the yardstick. Thus, many species are becoming mistimed due to climate change. We urge researchers with long-term datasets on phenology to link their data with those that may serve as a yardstick, because documentation of the incidence of climate change-induced mistiming is crucial in assessing the impact of global climate change on the natural world.}, }
@article {pmid16317015, year = {2005}, author = {Menne, B and Bertollini, R}, title = {Health and climate change: a call for action.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {331}, number = {7528}, pages = {1283-1284}, pmid = {16317015}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid16304954, year = {2005}, author = {Borsuk, ME and Tomassini, L}, title = {Uncertainty, imprecision, and the precautionary principle in climate change assessment.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {52}, number = {6}, pages = {213-225}, pmid = {16304954}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Air Pollution/economics/prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Temperature ; *Uncertainty ; }, abstract = {Statistical decision theory can provide useful support for climate change decisions made under conditions of uncertainty. However, the probability distributions used to calculate expected costs in decision theory are themselves subject to uncertainty, disagreement, or ambiguity in their specification. This imprecision can be described using sets of probability measures, from which upper and lower bounds on expectations can be calculated. However, many representations, or classes, of probability measures are possible. We describe six of the more useful classes and demonstrate how each may be used to represent climate change uncertainties. When expected costs are specified by bounds, rather than precise values, the conventional decision criterion of minimum expected cost is insufficient to reach a unique decision. Alternative criteria are required, and the criterion of minimum upper expected cost may be desirable because it is consistent with the precautionary principle. Using simple climate and economics models as an example, we determine the carbon dioxide emissions levels that have minimum upper expected cost for each of the selected classes. There can be wide differences in these emissions levels and their associated costs, emphasizing the need for care when selecting an appropriate class.}, }
@article {pmid16294841, year = {2005}, author = {Thacker, PD}, title = {How a global-warming skeptic became famous.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {39}, number = {21}, pages = {436A-437A}, pmid = {16294841}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Famous Persons ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Politics ; }, }
@article {pmid16293686, year = {2005}, author = {Stireman, JO and Dyer, LA and Janzen, DH and Singer, MS and Lill, JT and Marquis, RJ and Ricklefs, RE and Gentry, GL and Hallwachs, W and Coley, PD and Barone, JA and Greeney, HF and Connahs, H and Barbosa, P and Morais, HC and Diniz, IR}, title = {Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: implications of global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {102}, number = {48}, pages = {17384-17387}, pmid = {16293686}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Larva/parasitology/physiology ; Lepidoptera/*parasitology/physiology ; Population Dynamics ; Regression Analysis ; Wasps/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Insect outbreaks are expected to increase in frequency and intensity with projected changes in global climate through direct effects of climate change on insect populations and through disruption of community interactions. Although there is much concern about mean changes in global climate, the impact of climatic variability itself on species interactions has been little explored. Here, we compare caterpillar-parasitoid interactions across a broad gradient of climatic variability and find that the combined data in 15 geographically dispersed databases show a decrease in levels of parasitism as climatic variability increases. The dominant contribution to this pattern by relatively specialized parasitoid wasps suggests that climatic variability impairs the ability of parasitoids to track host populations. Given the important role of parasitoids in regulating insect herbivore populations in natural and managed systems, we predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of herbivore outbreaks through a disruption of enemy-herbivore dynamics as climates become more variable.}, }
@article {pmid16292302, year = {2005}, author = {Patz, JA and Campbell-Lendrum, D and Holloway, T and Foley, JA}, title = {Impact of regional climate change on human health.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {438}, number = {7066}, pages = {310-317}, doi = {10.1038/nature04188}, pmid = {16292302}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Disease Vectors ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Heat Stroke/epidemiology/etiology/mortality ; Humans ; Infections/epidemiology/etiology ; *Public Health/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; }, abstract = {The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.}, }
@article {pmid16292277, year = {2005}, author = {Cyranoski, D}, title = {Climate change: the long-range forecast.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {438}, number = {7066}, pages = {275-276}, doi = {10.1038/438275a}, pmid = {16292277}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Disasters/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Ecosystem ; Fresh Water/analysis ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice Cover ; Nepal ; Rivers ; Tibet ; Water Supply/analysis/statistics &amp; numerical data ; }, }
@article {pmid16286298, year = {2005}, author = {Williams, PD}, title = {Modelling climate change: the role of unresolved processes.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1837}, pages = {2931-2946}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2005.1676}, pmid = {16286298}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Evolution, Planetary ; *Meteorological Concepts ; *Models, Statistical ; Oceanography/*methods ; Stochastic Processes ; }, abstract = {Our understanding of the climate system has been revolutionized recently, by the development of sophisticated computer models. The predictions of such models are used to formulate international protocols, intended to mitigate the severity of global warming and its impacts. Yet, these models are not perfect representations of reality, because they remove from explicit consideration many physical processes which are known to be key aspects of the climate system, but which are too small or fast to be modelled. The purpose of this paper is to give a personal perspective of the current state of knowledge regarding the problem of unresolved scales in climate models. A recent novel solution to the problem is discussed, in which it is proposed, somewhat counter-intuitively, that the performance of models may be improved by adding random noise to represent the unresolved processes.}, }
@article {pmid16284173, year = {2005}, author = {Wing, SL and Harrington, GJ and Smith, FA and Bloch, JI and Boyer, DM and Freeman, KH}, title = {Transient floral change and rapid global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {310}, number = {5750}, pages = {993-996}, doi = {10.1126/science.1116913}, pmid = {16284173}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Biodiversity ; Carbon Isotopes/analysis ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Fossils ; Geologic Sediments ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oxygen Isotopes/analysis ; Plant Development ; Plant Leaves/anatomy &amp; histology ; *Plants/anatomy &amp; histology/classification ; Rain ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Wyoming ; }, abstract = {Rapid global warming of 5 degrees to 10 degrees C during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) coincided with major turnover in vertebrate faunas, but previous studies have found little floral change. Plant fossils discovered in Wyoming, United States, show that PETM floras were a mixture of native and migrant lineages and that plant range shifts were large and rapid (occurring within 10,000 years). Floral composition and leaf shape and size suggest that climate warmed by approximately 5 degrees C during the PETM and that precipitation was low early in the event and increased later. Floral response to warming and/or increased atmospheric CO2 during the PETM was comparable in rate and magnitude to that seen in postglacial floras and to the predicted effects of anthropogenic carbon release and climate change on future vegetation.}, }
@article {pmid16260750, year = {2005}, author = {Kueppers, LM and Snyder, MA and Sloan, LC and Zavaleta, ES and Fulfrost, B}, title = {Modeled regional climate change and California endemic oak ranges.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {102}, number = {45}, pages = {16281-16286}, pmid = {16260750}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {California ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Models, Theoretical ; Quercus/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {In the coming century, anthropogenic climate change will threaten the persistence of restricted endemic species, complicating conservation planning. Although most efforts to quantify potential shifts in species' ranges use global climate model (GCM) output, regional climate model (RCM) output may be better suited to predicting shifts by restricted species, particularly in regions with complex topography or other regionally important climate-forcing factors. Using a RCM-based future climate scenario, we found that potential ranges of two California endemic oaks, Quercus douglasii and Quercus lobata, shrink considerably (to 59% and 54% of modern potential range sizes, respectively) and shift northward. This result is markedly different from that obtained by using a comparable GCM-based scenario, under which these species retain 81% and 73% of their modern potential range sizes, respectively. The difference between RCM- and GCM-based scenarios is due to greater warming and larger precipitation decreases during the growing season predicted by the RCM in these species' potential ranges. Based on the modeled regional climate change, <50% of protected land area currently containing these species is expected to contain them under a future midrange "business-as-usual" path of greenhouse gas emissions.}, }
@article {pmid16248204, year = {2005}, author = {Ashley, RM and Balmforth, DJ and Saul, AJ and Blanskby, JD}, title = {Flooding in the future--predicting climate change, risks and responses in urban areas.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {52}, number = {5}, pages = {265-273}, pmid = {16248204}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate ; *Disasters ; *Engineering ; Europe ; Forecasting ; Rain ; Risk Assessment ; Social Conditions ; Waste Disposal, Fluid/*methods ; }, abstract = {Engineering infrastructure is provided at high cost and is expected to have a useful operational life of decades. However, it is clear that the future is uncertain. Traditional approaches to designing and operating urban storm drainage assets have relied on past performance of natural systems and the ability to extrapolate this performance, together with that of the assets across the usable lifetime. Whether or not climate change is going to significantly alter future weather patterns in Europe, it is clear that it is now incumbent on designers and operators of storm drainage systems to prepare for greater uncertainty in the effectiveness of storm drainage systems. A recent U.K. Government study considered the potential effects of climate and socio-economic change in the U.K. in terms of four future scenarios and what the implications are for the performance of existing storm drainage facilities. In this paper the modelling that was undertaken to try to quantify the changes in risk, together with the effectiveness of responses in managing that risk, are described. It shows that flood risks may increase by a factor of almost 30 times and that traditional engineering measures alone are unlikely to be able to provide protection.}, }
@article {pmid16239459, year = {2005}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Hedging your climate-change bets.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {310}, number = {5747}, pages = {433}, doi = {10.1126/science.310.5747.433}, pmid = {16239459}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16239458, year = {2005}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Confronting the bogeyman of the climate system.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {310}, number = {5747}, pages = {432-433}, doi = {10.1126/science.310.5747.432}, pmid = {16239458}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16236722, year = {2005}, author = {Diffenbaugh, NS and Pal, JS and Trapp, RJ and Giorgi, F}, title = {Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {102}, number = {44}, pages = {15774-15778}, pmid = {16236722}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {*Climate ; Cold Temperature ; Geography ; Hot Temperature ; Rain ; Snow ; Temperature ; United States ; }, abstract = {We find that extreme temperature and precipitation events are likely to respond substantially to anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse forcing and that fine-scale climate system modifiers are likely to play a critical role in the net response. At present, such events impact a wide variety of natural and human systems, and future changes in their frequency and/or magnitude could have dramatic ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. Our results indicate that fine-scale snow albedo effects influence the response of both hot and cold events and that peak increases in extreme hot events are amplified by surface moisture feedbacks. Likewise, we find that extreme precipitation is enhanced on the lee side of rain shadows and over coastal areas dominated by convective precipitation. We project substantial, spatially heterogeneous increases in both hot and wet events over the contiguous United States by the end of the next century, suggesting that consideration of fine-scale processes is critical for accurate assessment of local- and regional-scale vulnerability to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16229849, year = {2006}, author = {Ogden, NH and Maarouf, A and Barker, IK and Bigras-Poulin, M and Lindsay, LR and Morshed, MG and O'callaghan, CJ and Ramay, F and Waltner-Toews, D and Charron, DF}, title = {Climate change and the potential for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology}, volume = {36}, number = {1}, pages = {63-70}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijpara.2005.08.016}, pmid = {16229849}, issn = {0020-7519}, mesh = {Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/*parasitology ; Canada ; *Climate ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ixodes/*parasitology ; Lyme Disease/*parasitology ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Tick Infestations/parasitology ; Zoonoses/*parasitology ; }, abstract = {We used an Ixodes scapularis population model to investigate potential northward spread of the tick associated with climate change. Annual degree-days >0 degrees C limits for I. scapularis establishment, obtained from tick population model simulations, were mapped using temperatures projected for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s by two Global Climate Models (the Canadian CGCM2 and the UK HadCM3) for two greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcings 'A2'and 'B2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Under scenario 'A2' using either climate model, the theoretical range for I. scapularis establishment moved northwards by approximately 200 km by the 2020s and 1000 km by the 2080s. Reductions in emissions (scenario 'B2') had little effect on projected range expansion up to the 2050s, but the range expansion projected to occur between the 2050s and 2080s was less than that under scenario 'A2'. When the tick population model was driven by projected annual temperature cycles (obtained using CGCM2 under scenario 'A2'), tick abundance almost doubled by the 2020s at the current northern limit of I. scapularis, suggesting that the threshold numbers of immigrating ticks needed to establish new populations will fall during the coming decades. The projected degrees of theoretical range expansion and increased tick survival by the 2020s, suggest that actual range expansion of I. scapularis may be detectable within the next two decades. Seasonal tick activity under climate change scenarios was consistent with maintenance of endemic cycles of the Lyme disease agent in newly established tick populations. The geographic range of I. scapularis-borne zoonoses may, therefore, expand significantly northwards as a consequence of climate change this century.}, }
@article {pmid16217088, year = {2005}, author = {}, title = {Katrina, climate change and the poor.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {173}, number = {8}, pages = {837, 839}, pmid = {16217088}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {*Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Louisiana ; *Poverty ; Risk Assessment ; Safety ; Sanitation ; *Social Justice ; }, }
@article {pmid16216650, year = {2005}, author = {Khasnis, AA and Nettleman, MD}, title = {Global warming and infectious disease.}, journal = {Archives of medical research}, volume = {36}, number = {6}, pages = {689-696}, doi = {10.1016/j.arcmed.2005.03.041}, pmid = {16216650}, issn = {0188-4409}, mesh = {Animals ; *Communicable Disease Control/trends ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Disease Vectors ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Global warming has serious implications for all aspects of human life, including infectious diseases. The effect of global warming depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. From the human standpoint, changes in the environment may trigger human migration, causing disease patterns to shift. Crop failures and famine may reduce host resistance to infections. Disease transmission may be enhanced through the scarcity and contamination of potable water sources. Importantly, significant economic and political stresses may damage the existing public health infrastructure, leaving mankind poorly prepared for unexpected epidemics. Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. Altitudes that are currently too cool to sustain vectors will become more conducive to them. Some vector populations may expand into new geographic areas, whereas others may disappear. Malaria, dengue, plague, and viruses causing encephalitic syndromes are among the many vector-borne diseases likely to be affected. Some models suggest that vector-borne diseases will become more common as the earth warms, although caution is needed in interpreting these predictions. Clearly, global warming will cause changes in the epidemiology of infectious diseases. The ability of mankind to react or adapt is dependent upon the magnitude and speed of the change. The outcome will also depend on our ability to recognize epidemics early, to contain them effectively, to provide appropriate treatment, and to commit resources to prevention and research.}, }
@article {pmid16207843, year = {2005}, author = {Epstein, PR}, title = {Climate change and human health.}, journal = {The New England journal of medicine}, volume = {353}, number = {14}, pages = {1433-1436}, doi = {10.1056/NEJMp058079}, pmid = {16207843}, issn = {1533-4406}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Disasters ; Disease Transmission, Infectious ; *Environment ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid16191652, year = {2005}, author = {Lowe, JA and Gregory, JM}, title = {The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1831}, pages = {1313-1328}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2005.1570}, pmid = {16191652}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Disaster Planning/*methods ; *Disasters ; *Models, Statistical ; North Sea ; Oceanography/*methods ; Rheology/*methods ; Risk Assessment/*methods ; Risk Factors ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Coastal flooding is often caused by extreme events, such as storm surges. In this study, improved physical models have been used to simulate the climate system and storm surges, and to predict the effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on the surges. In agreement with previous studies, this work indicates that the changes in atmospheric storminess and the higher time-average sea-level predicted for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to changes in the height of water levels measured relative to the present day tide. However, the details of these projections differ somewhat from earlier assessments. Uncertainty in projections of future extreme water levels arise from uncertainty in the amount and timing of future greenhouse gas emissions, uncertainty in the physical models used to simulate the climate system and from the natural variability of the system. The total uncertainty has not yet been reliably quantified and achieving this should be a priority for future research.}, }
@article {pmid16177751, year = {2005}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Hurricane link to climate change is hazy.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {437}, number = {7058}, pages = {461}, doi = {10.1038/437461a}, pmid = {16177751}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid16173547, year = {2005}, author = {Bond, TC and Sun, H}, title = {Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {39}, number = {16}, pages = {5921-5926}, doi = {10.1021/es0480421}, pmid = {16173547}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/economics/*prevention &amp; control ; *Carbon ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Policy Making ; United Nations ; }, abstract = {Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. We review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. We argue that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We synthesize results from published climate-modeling studies to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO2 (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. We find that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, we propose a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during our discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement.}, }
@article {pmid16170564, year = {2005}, author = {Gordo, O and Sanz, JJ}, title = {Phenology and climate change: a long-term study in a Mediterranean locality.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {146}, number = {3}, pages = {484-495}, pmid = {16170564}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Insecta/*physiology ; Mediterranean Region ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {It is well documented that plant and animal phenology is changing in response to recent climate warming in the Palaearctic. However, few long-term data sets are currently available in the Mediterranean basin. The present study reports long-term temporal trends of several phenophases of 45 plants, 4 insects and 6 migratory insectivorous birds. Dynamic factor analyses performed with plant phenophases showed that most of those events occurring at spring and summer had common trends toward the advancement, especially since mid-1970s. However, during these last decades, insect phenology showed a steeper advance than plant phenology, suggesting an increase of decoupling of some plant-insect interactions, such as those between pollinators and flowers or herbivorous insects and their plant resources. All trans-Saharan bird species showed highly significant temporal trends in all studied phenophases (some of them covering most of the last century). In two species, the duration of stay is increasing due to both earlier arrivals and later departures. On the other hand, two wintering species showed a significant advancement in their arrival dates, while an opposite pattern were found for departures of each one. Only one of these species increased significantly its wintering stay. Bird departures were not related to local climate in any species. Our results demonstrate a key role of local temperatures behind interannual variability of most plant and insects phenophases, with especial emphasis in those occurring in spring and summer. Therefore, the common signal towards the advancement recorded since mid-1970s resulted from the recent rise in temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid16161777, year = {2005}, author = {Stevenson, D and Doherty, R and Sanderson, M and Johnson, C and Collins, B and Derwent, D}, title = {Impacts of climate change and variability on tropospheric ozone and its precursors.}, journal = {Faraday discussions}, volume = {130}, number = {}, pages = {41-57; discussion 125-51, 519-24}, doi = {10.1039/b417412g}, pmid = {16161777}, issn = {1359-6640}, mesh = {Air Movements ; Animals ; Atmosphere/*analysis ; Butadienes/analysis ; Chemical Precipitation ; Climate ; Diffusion ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Hemiterpenes/analysis ; Humans ; Humidity ; Hydroxyl Radical/chemistry ; Nitrogen Oxides/analysis ; Ozone/*analysis/chemistry ; Pentanes/analysis ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Two coupled climate-chemistry model experiments for the period 1990-2030 were conducted: one with a fixed climate and the other with a varying climate forced by the is92a scenario. By comparing results from these experiments we have attempted to identify changes and variations in physical climate that may have important influences upon tropospheric chemical composition. Climate variables considered include: temperature, humidity, convective mass fluxes, precipitation, and the large-scale circulation. Increases in humidity, directly related to increases in temperature, exert a major influence on the budgets of ozone and the hydroxyl radical: decreasing 03 and increasing OH. Warming enhances decomposition of PAN, releasing NOx, and increases the rate of methane oxidation. Surface warming enhances vegetation emissions of isoprene, an important ozone precursor. In the changed climate, tropical convection generally reduces, but penetrates to higher levels. Over northern continents, convection tends to increase. These changes in convection affect both vertical mixing and lightning NOx emissions. We find no global trend in lightning emissions, but significant changes in its distribution. Changes in precipitation and the large-scale circulation are less important for composition, at least in these experiments. Higher levels of the oxidants OH and H202 lead to increases in aerosol formation and concentrations. These results indicate that climate-chemistry feedbacks are dominantly negative (less 03, a shorter CH4 lifetime, and more aerosol). The major mode of inter-annual variability in the is92a climate experiment is ENSO. This strongly modulates isoprene emissions from vegetation via tropical land surface temperatures. ENSO is also clearly the dominant source of variability in tropical column ozone, mainly through changes in the distribution of convection. The magnitude of inter-annual variability in ozone is comparable to the changes brought about by emissions and climate changes between the 1990s and 2020s, suggesting that it will be difficult to disentangle the different components of near-future changes.}, }
@article {pmid16150711, year = {2005}, author = {Schneider, SH and Mastrandrea, MD}, title = {Probabilistic assessment of "dangerous" climate change and emissions pathways.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {102}, number = {44}, pages = {15728-15735}, pmid = {16150711}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {*Climate ; Dangerous Behavior ; Greenhouse Effect ; Likelihood Functions ; *Models, Statistical ; Probability Theory ; Risk Management ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate policy decisions driving future greenhouse gas mitigation efforts will strongly influence the success of compliance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the prevention of "dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." However, success will be measured in very different ways by different stakeholders, suggesting a spectrum of possible definitions for DAI. The likelihood of avoiding a given threshold for DAI depends in part on uncertainty in the climate system, notably, the range of uncertainty in climate sensitivity. We combine a set of probabilistic global average temperature metrics for DAI with probability distributions of future climate change produced from a combination of several published climate sensitivity distributions and a range of proposed concentration stabilization profiles differing in both stabilization level and approach trajectory, including overshoot profiles. These analyses present a "likelihood framework" to differentiate future emissions pathways with regard to their potential for preventing DAI. Our analysis of overshoot profiles in comparison with non-overshoot profiles demonstrates that overshoot of a given stabilization target can significantly increase the likelihood of exceeding "dangerous" climate impact thresholds, even though equilibrium warming in our model is identical for non-overshoot concentration stabilization profiles having the same target.}, }
@article {pmid16136096, year = {2005}, author = {Brumfiel, G}, title = {Scientist quits climate-change panel.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {437}, number = {7055}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1038/437009a}, pmid = {16136096}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid16121261, year = {2005}, author = {Watson, RT and Patz, J and Gubler, DJ and Parson, EA and Vincent, JH}, title = {Environmental health implications of global climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {834-843}, doi = {10.1039/b504683a}, pmid = {16121261}, issn = {1464-0325}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Global Health ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and--associated with all the preceding--the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem.}, }
@article {pmid16121260, year = {2005}, author = {Bierbaum, RM}, title = {Climate change--the big environmental issue.}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {7}, number = {9}, pages = {832-833}, doi = {10.1039/b510527g}, pmid = {16121260}, issn = {1464-0325}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Health ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; Humans ; Rain ; Risk Assessment ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid16103487, year = {2005}, author = {Young, K}, title = {Climate change and health.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {173}, number = {4}, pages = {339; author reply 340}, pmid = {16103487}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Public Health ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid16103486, year = {2005}, author = {Bates, DV}, title = {Climate change and health.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {173}, number = {4}, pages = {339; author reply 340}, pmid = {16103486}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Europe/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Mortality/trends ; Oxidants, Photochemical/administration &amp; dosage ; Ozone/adverse effects ; Public Health ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, }
@article {pmid16103485, year = {2005}, author = {Desapriya, EB}, title = {Climate change and health.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {173}, number = {4}, pages = {339-40; author reply 340}, pmid = {16103485}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; *Public Health ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid16099961, year = {2005}, author = {Pennisi, E}, title = {Ecology. Beloved Arctic station braces for its own climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {309}, number = {5737}, pages = {1006-1008}, doi = {10.1126/science.309.5737.1006}, pmid = {16099961}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Budgets ; *Climate ; *Cold Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Fertilizers ; *Fresh Water ; Greenhouse Effect ; Nitrogen ; Phosphorus ; Plant Development ; Research Support as Topic ; Seasons ; Soil/analysis ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; United States ; United States Government Agencies ; }, }
@article {pmid16096849, year = {2005}, author = {Torti, VM and Dunn, PO}, title = {Variable effects of climate change on six species of North American birds.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {145}, number = {3}, pages = {486-495}, pmid = {16096849}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate ; Clutch Size ; *Demography ; Longitudinal Studies ; Models, Statistical ; North America ; Regression Analysis ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Many recent studies have shown that birds are advancing their laying date in response to long-term increases in spring temperatures. These studies have been conducted primarily in Europe and at local scales. If climate change is a large-scale phenomenon, then we should see responses at larger scales and in other regions. We examined the effects of long-term temperature change on the laying dates and clutch sizes of six ecologically diverse species of North American birds using 50 years of nest record data. As predicted, laying dates for most (four of six) species were earlier when spring temperatures were warmer. Over the long-term, laying dates advanced over time for two species (red-winged blackbirds, Agelaius phoeniceus and eastern bluebirds, Sialia sialis). Laying date of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) also advanced with increasing temperature when the analysis was restricted to eastern populations. Neither laying date nor clutch sizes changed significantly over time in the remaining species (American coot, Fulica americana, killdeer, Charadrius vociferous, and American robin, Turdus migratorius), an unsurprising result given the lack of increase in temperatures over time at nest locations of these species. This study indicates that the relationship between climate change and breeding in birds is variable within and among species. In large-scale analyses of North American birds, four of seven species have shown advances in laying dates with increasing temperature (including song sparrows in the east). These variable responses within and among species highlight the need for more detailed studies across large spatial scales.}, }
@article {pmid16087430, year = {2005}, author = {Ciannelli, L and Bailey, KM and Chan, KS and Belgrano, A and Stenseth, NC}, title = {Climate change causing phase transitions of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) recruitment dynamics.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {272}, number = {1573}, pages = {1735-1743}, pmid = {16087430}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/*growth &amp; development ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pacific Ocean ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior/physiology ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {In 1976 the North Pacific climate shifted, resulting in an average increase of the water temperature. In the Gulf of Alaska the climate shift was followed (i.e. early 1980s) by a gradual but dramatic increase in the abundance of groundfish species that typically prey on pre-recruitment stages of walleye pollock. In the present study we used a previously parameterized model to investigate the effect of these climate and biological changes on the recruitment dynamics of walleye pollock in the Gulf of Alaska. Simulations covered the 1970-2000 time frame and emphasized the medium-to-long temporal scale (i.e. about 5-10 years) of environmental variability. Results showed that during periods characterized by high sea surface temperature and high predation on juvenile pollock stages, recruitment variability and magnitude were below average, and recruitment control was delayed to stages older than the 0-group. Opposite dynamics (i.e. high abundance and variability, and early recruitment control) occurred during periods characterized by low temperature and predation. These results are in general agreement with empirical observations, and allowed us to formulate causal explanations for their occurrence. We interpreted the delay of recruitment control and the reduction of variability as an effect of increased constraint on the abundance of post age-0 stages, in turn imposed by high density dependence and predation mortality. On the other hand, low density-dependence and predation favoured post age-0 survival, and allowed for an unconstrained link between larval and recruitment abundance. Our findings demonstrate that the dominant mechanisms of pollock survival change over contrasting climate regimes. Such changes may in turn cause a phase transition of recruitment dynamics with profound implications for the management of the entire stock.}, }
@article {pmid16084168, year = {2005}, author = {Alpert, JS}, title = {Science, skepticism, and global warming.}, journal = {The American journal of medicine}, volume = {118}, number = {8}, pages = {807}, doi = {10.1016/j.amjmed.2005.05.001}, pmid = {16084168}, issn = {0002-9343}, mesh = {Anti-Arrhythmia Agents/therapeutic use ; *Evidence-Based Medicine ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic ; *Science ; Ventricular Premature Complexes/drug therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid16079058, year = {2005}, author = {Beggs, PJ and Bambrick, HJ}, title = {Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change?.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {113}, number = {8}, pages = {915-919}, pmid = {16079058}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Allergens/*immunology ; Asthma/epidemiology/*etiology ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Pollen/*immunology ; Prevalence ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorologic variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16079055, year = {2005}, author = {Fields, S}, title = {Continental divide: why Africa's climate change burden is greater.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {113}, number = {8}, pages = {A534-7}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.113-a534}, pmid = {16079055}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Africa ; Agriculture ; Ecosystem ; Financial Support ; Food Supply ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Warfare ; }, }
@article {pmid16075263, year = {2005}, author = {Chmielewski, FM and Müller, A and Küchler, W}, title = {Possible impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in Saxony (Germany).}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {50}, number = {2}, pages = {96-104}, pmid = {16075263}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {*Climate ; Germany ; *Plant Development ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Recent climate changes have had distinct impacts on plant development in many parts of the world. Higher air temperatures, mainly since the end of the 1980s, have led to advanced timing of phenological phases and consequently to an extension of the general growing season. For this reason it is interesting to know how plants will respond to future climate change. In this study simple phenological models have been developed to estimate the impact of climate change on the natural vegetation in Saxony. The estimations are based on a regional climate scenario for the state of Saxony. The results indicate that changes in the timing of phenophases could continue in the future. Due to distinct temperature changes in winter and in summer, mainly the spring and summer phases will be advanced. Spring phenophases, such as leafing or flowering, show the strongest trends. Depending on the species, the average timing of these phenophases could be advanced by 3-27 days by 2050. Phenophases in autumn show relatively small changes. Thus, the annual growth period of individual trees will be further extended, mainly because of the shift of spring phases. Frequent droughts in summer and in autumn can compensate for the earlier leafing of trees, because in this case leaf colouring and leaf fall would start some weeks earlier. In such cases, the growing period would not be really extended, but shifted to the beginning of the year.}, }
@article {pmid16054276, year = {2005}, author = {Dowdall, M}, title = {Arctic climate change: potential implications for Arctic radio-ecology and radioprotection?.}, journal = {Journal of environmental radioactivity}, volume = {84}, number = {3}, pages = {315-320}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvrad.2005.05.007}, pmid = {16054276}, issn = {0265-931X}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Cold Climate ; *Ecology ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Radiation Effects ; Radiation Monitoring ; *Radioactive Pollutants ; Radiobiology/trends ; }, }
@article {pmid16051763, year = {2005}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. El Niño or La Niña? The past hints at the future.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {309}, number = {5735}, pages = {687}, doi = {10.1126/science.309.5735.687}, pmid = {16051763}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16044681, year = {2005}, author = {Yang, GJ and Vounatsou, P and Zhou, XN and Tanner, M and Utzinger, J}, title = {A potential impact of climate change and water resource development on the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in China.}, journal = {Parassitologia}, volume = {47}, number = {1}, pages = {127-134}, pmid = {16044681}, issn = {0048-2951}, mesh = {Animals ; China/epidemiology ; Disease Vectors ; Fresh Water/*parasitology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Sanitary Engineering/trends ; Schistosoma japonicum/*physiology ; Schistosomiasis japonica/*epidemiology/transmission ; Seasons ; Snails/*parasitology ; Social Change ; Temperature ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {There is growing consensus among climate modellers that the unusual global warming observed in the last decades of the 20th century is primarily forced by human activities, namely greenhouse gas increases in the atmosphere. Global warming will trigger alterations in physical and biological systems, including shifts in the spatio-temporal distribution of disease vectors, but the nature and extent of these changes are poorly understood. The purpose of the present study was to assess the potential impact of climate change and water resource development on the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum. We employed two 30-year composite datasets comprising average monthly temperatures collected at 623 observing stations throughout China, spanning the periods 1961-1990 and 1971-2000. Temperature changes were assessed spatially between the 1960s and 1990s for January, as this is the critical month for survival of O. hupensis. Our database shows that January temperatures increased at 590 stations (94.7%), and that China's average January temperature in the 1990s was 0.96 degrees C higher than 30 years earlier. The historical 0-1 degrees C January isotherm, which was considered the approximate northern limit of S. japonicum transmission, has shifted from 33 degrees 15' N to 33 degrees 41' N, expanding the potential transmission area by 41,335 km2. This translates to an additional 20.7 million people at risk of schistosomiasis. Two lakes are located in this new transmission area that form part of the proposed South-North water transfer project. Climate change, coupled with water resource developments in China, may pose additional challenges for the control of schistosomiasis.}, }
@article {pmid16042286, year = {2005}, author = {Karlén, W}, title = {Recent global warming: an artifact of a too-short temperature record?.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {263-264}, pmid = {16042286}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Data Collection/*standards ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Meteorological Concepts ; Reproducibility of Results ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid16034394, year = {2005}, author = {Adger, WN and Barnett, J}, title = {Compensation for climate change must meet needs.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {436}, number = {7049}, pages = {328}, doi = {10.1038/436328c}, pmid = {16034394}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Emigration and Immigration ; Environmental Pollution/*economics/*prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Effect ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid16029477, year = {2005}, author = {Herron, MD and Waterman, JM and Parkinson, CL}, title = {Phylogeny and historical biogeography of African ground squirrels: the role of climate change in the evolution of Xerus.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {14}, number = {9}, pages = {2773-2788}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2005.02630.x}, pmid = {16029477}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Africa ; Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate ; Cytochromes b/genetics ; DNA Primers ; *Demography ; *Evolution, Molecular ; *Genetic Variation ; Geography ; Haplotypes/genetics ; Models, Genetic ; *Phylogeny ; Population Dynamics ; Sciuridae/*genetics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {We used phylogenetic and phylogeographical methods to infer relationships among African ground squirrels of the genus Xerus. Using Bayesian, maximum-parsimony, nested clade and coalescent analyses of cytochrome b sequences, we inferred interspecific relationships, evaluated the specific distinctness of Cape (Xerus inauris) and mountain (Xerus princeps) ground squirrels, and tested hypotheses for historical patterns of gene flow within X. inauris. The inferred phylogeny supports the hypothesized existence of an 'arid corridor' from the Horn of Africa to the Cape region. Although doubts have been raised regarding the specific distinctness of X. inauris and X. princeps, our analyses show that each represents a distinct well-supported, monophyletic lineage. Xerus inauris includes three major clades, two of which are geographically restricted. The distributions of X. inauris populations are concordant with divergences within and disjunctions between other taxa, which have been interpreted as results of Plio-Pleistocene climate cycles. Nested clade analysis, coalescent analyses, and analyses of genetic structure support allopatric fragmentation as the cause of the deep divergences within this species.}, }
@article {pmid16025410, year = {2005}, author = {Saxe, H and Kerstiens, G}, title = {Climate change reverses the competitive balance of ash and beech seedlings under simulated forest conditions.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {375-386}, doi = {10.1055/s-2005-865639}, pmid = {16025410}, issn = {1435-8603}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate ; Fagus/*physiology ; Fraxinus/*physiology ; Light ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; Seedlings/*physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {This study identifies the important role of climate change and photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) in the regenerative competence of ash and beech seedlings in 12 inter- and intra-specific competition designs in simulated mixed ash-beech forest gaps under conditions of non-limiting soil volume, water and nutrient supply. The growth conditions simulated natural forest conditions as closely as possible. Simulations were performed by growing interacting seedling canopies for one season in temperature-regulated closed-top chambers (CTCs). Eight CTCs were used in a factorial design with replicate treatments of [CO2] x temperature x PPFD x competition design. [CO2] tracked ambient levels or was 360 micromol mol-1 higher. Temperature tracked ambient levels or was 2.8 degrees C higher. PPFD on two plant tables inside each CTC was 16% and 5% of open-field levels, respectively, representative of typical light flux levels in a natural forest gap. In several of the competition designs, climate change made the ash seedlings grow taller than the beech seedlings and, at the same time, attain a larger leaf area and a larger total biomass. Advantages of this type for ash were found particularly at lower PPFD. There was a positive synergistic interaction of elevated temperature x [CO2] for both species, but more so for ash. There are many uncertainties when a study of chambered seedlings is to be projected to real changes in natural forests. Nevertheless, this study supports a possible future shift towards ash in north European, unmanaged, mixed ash-beech forests in response to the predicted climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16024354, year = {2005}, author = {Koelle, K and Pascual, M and Yunus, M}, title = {Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {272}, number = {1566}, pages = {971-977}, pmid = {16024354}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*physiology ; Bangladesh/epidemiology ; *Biological Evolution ; Cholera/epidemiology/*microbiology/transmission ; *Climate ; Humans ; *Models, Biological ; *Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Vibrio cholerae/*pathogenicity/physiology ; }, abstract = {Many diverse infectious diseases exhibit seasonal dynamics. Seasonality in disease incidence has been attributed to seasonal changes in pathogen transmission rates, resulting from fluctuations in extrinsic climate factors. Multi-strain infectious diseases with strain-specific seasonal signatures, such as cholera, indicate that a range of seasonal patterns in transmission rates is possible in identical environments. We therefore consider pathogens capable of evolving their 'seasonal phenotype', a trait that determines the sensitivity of their transmission rates to environmental variability. We introduce a theoretical framework, based on adaptive dynamics, for predicting the evolution of disease dynamics in seasonal environments. Changes in the seasonality of environmental factors are one important avenue for the effects of climate change on disease. This model also provides a framework for examining these effects on pathogen evolution and associated disease dynamics. An application of this approach gives an explanation for the recent cholera strain replacement in Bangladesh, based on changes in monsoon rainfall patterns.}, }
@article {pmid16024347, year = {2005}, author = {McMahon, CR and Burton, HR}, title = {Climate change and seal survival: evidence for environmentally mediated changes in elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, pup survival.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {272}, number = {1566}, pages = {923-928}, pmid = {16024347}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate ; *Environment ; Feeding Behavior/physiology ; Maternal Behavior/physiology ; Models, Biological ; Seals, Earless/*physiology ; Survival/*physiology ; Survival Analysis ; }, abstract = {Maternal and physical factors play a significant role in animal life-history variability, which means that large scale climate change has the potential to affect the size and dynamics of animal populations indirectly through maternal investment and directly through conditions that animals are exposed to. However, little is known about the effects of large-scale oceanographic events such as the El-Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) that influence productivity in the Southern Ocean and the abundance, quality and distribution of prey. The possible mechanisms by which physical factors and primary productivity could influence life-history traits, such as survival of apex predators, includes direct influences such as food availability and foraging success and indirect influences such as stored maternal investment and resource transfer during lactation. Here, we quantify the relative contribution of maternal investment and climate conditions at remote foraging sites to survival in the first year of life for southern elephant seals. We present evidence linking climate (ENSO) and variations in a key demographic parameter--first-year survival--and demonstrate that survival was highest during ENSO events and that the ability of mothers to store and acquire resources, which is typically related to ocean productivity, is the most important determinant of survival in the first year. This functional link provides valuable insights that can be used to model the responses of the seal populations to climate change scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid16020835, year = {2005}, author = {Wintour, P}, title = {G8 increases aid to Africa but moves little on climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {331}, number = {7509}, pages = {125}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.331.7509.125}, pmid = {16020835}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Africa ; *Financing, Organized ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid16020698, year = {2005}, author = {Marshall, E}, title = {Climate change. G8 leaders make a promise to do more.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {309}, number = {5733}, pages = {362}, doi = {10.1126/science.309.5733.362b}, pmid = {16020698}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid16015326, year = {2005}, author = {Vandergoes, MJ and Newnham, RM and Preusser, F and Hendy, CH and Lowell, TV and Fitzsimons, SJ and Hogg, AG and Kasper, HU and Schlüchter, C}, title = {Regional insolation forcing of late Quaternary climate change in the Southern Hemisphere.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {436}, number = {7048}, pages = {242-245}, doi = {10.1038/nature03826}, pmid = {16015326}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; History, Ancient ; New Zealand ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Pollen/*physiology ; Soil ; Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {In agreement with the Milankovitch orbital forcing hypothesis it is often assumed that glacial-interglacial climate transitions occurred synchronously in the Northern and Southern hemispheres of the Earth. It is difficult to test this assumption, because of the paucity of long, continuous climate records from the Southern Hemisphere that have not been dated by tuning them to the presumed Northern Hemisphere signals. Here we present an independently dated terrestrial pollen record from a peat bog on South Island, New Zealand, to investigate global and local factors in Southern Hemisphere climate changes during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Our record largely corroborates the Milankovitch model of orbital forcing but also exhibits some differences: in particular, an earlier onset and longer duration of the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results suggest that Southern Hemisphere insolation may have been responsible for these differences in timing. Our findings question the validity of applying orbital tuning to Southern Hemisphere records and suggest an alternative mechanism to the bipolar seesaw for generating interhemispheric asynchrony in climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16011916, year = {2005}, author = {Walther, GR and Berger, S and Sykes, MT}, title = {An ecological 'footprint' of climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {272}, number = {1571}, pages = {1427-1432}, pmid = {16011916}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Demography ; Europe ; Geography ; Ilex/*physiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {Recently, there has been increasing evidence of species' range shifts due to changes in climate. Whereas most of these shifts relate ground truth biogeographic data to a general warming trend in regional or global climate data, we here present a reanalysis of both biogeographic and bioclimatic data of equal spatio-temporal resolution, covering a time span of more than 50 years. Our results reveal a coherent and synchronous shift in both species' distribution and climate. They show not only a shift in the northern margin of a species, which is in concert with gradually increasing winter temperatures in the area, they also confirm the simulated species' distribution changes expected from a bioclimatic model under the recent, relatively moderate climate change.}, }
@article {pmid16008301, year = {2005}, author = {Socolow, RH}, title = {Can we bury global warming?.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {293}, number = {1}, pages = {49-55}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0705-49}, pmid = {16008301}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid16001024, year = {2005}, author = {Pachauri, R}, title = {Climate change: is the US Congress bullying experts? Rajendra Pachauri interviewed by Quirin Schiermeier.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {436}, number = {7047}, pages = {7}, doi = {10.1038/436007a}, pmid = {16001024}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid15994503, year = {2005}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Atlantic climate pacemaker for millennia past, decades hence?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {309}, number = {5731}, pages = {41-43}, doi = {10.1126/science.309.5731.41}, pmid = {15994503}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15994494, year = {2005}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Senate resolution backs mandatory emission limits.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {309}, number = {5731}, pages = {32}, doi = {10.1126/science.309.5731.32a}, pmid = {15994494}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15988522, year = {2005}, author = {Thomas, DS and Knight, M and Wiggs, GF}, title = {Remobilization of southern African desert dune systems by twenty-first century global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {435}, number = {7046}, pages = {1218-1221}, doi = {10.1038/nature03717}, pmid = {15988522}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Computer Simulation ; *Desert Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humidity ; Plant Development ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Seasons ; Silicon Dioxide/*analysis ; South Africa ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Although desert dunes cover 5 per cent of the global land surface and 30 per cent of Africa, the potential impacts of twenty-first century global warming on desert dune systems are not well understood. The inactive Sahel and southern African dune systems, which developed in multiple arid phases since the last interglacial period, are used today by pastoral and agricultural systems that could be disrupted if climate change alters twenty-first century dune dynamics. Empirical data and model simulations have established that the interplay between dune surface erodibility (determined by vegetation cover and moisture availability) and atmospheric erosivity (determined by wind energy) is critical for dunefield dynamics. This relationship between erodibility and erosivity is susceptible to climate-change impacts. Here we use simulations with three global climate models and a range of emission scenarios to assess the potential future activity of three Kalahari dunefields. We determine monthly values of dune activity by modifying and improving an established dune mobility index so that it can account for global climate model data outputs. We find that, regardless of the emission scenario used, significantly enhanced dune activity is simulated in the southern dunefield by 2039, and in the eastern and northern dunefields by 2069. By 2099 all dunefields are highly dynamic, from northern South Africa to Angola and Zambia. Our results suggest that dunefields are likely to be reactivated (the sand will become significantly exposed and move) as a consequence of twenty-first century climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid15988483, year = {2005}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Clear skies raise global-warming estimates.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {435}, number = {7046}, pages = {1142-1143}, doi = {10.1038/4351142b}, pmid = {15988483}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis/*prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Human Activities ; *Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid15961661, year = {2005}, author = {Trenberth, K}, title = {Climate. Uncertainty in hurricanes and global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {308}, number = {5729}, pages = {1753-1754}, doi = {10.1126/science.1112551}, pmid = {15961661}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15947145, year = {2005}, author = {Stokstad, E}, title = {Climate change. California sets goals for cutting greenhouse gases.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {308}, number = {5728}, pages = {1530}, doi = {10.1126/science.308.5728.1530a}, pmid = {15947145}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15944716, year = {2005}, author = {Lourens, LJ and Sluijs, A and Kroon, D and Zachos, JC and Thomas, E and Röhl, U and Bowles, J and Raffi, I}, title = {Astronomical pacing of late Palaeocene to early Eocene global warming events.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {435}, number = {7045}, pages = {1083-1087}, doi = {10.1038/nature03814}, pmid = {15944716}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {At the boundary between the Palaeocene and Eocene epochs, about 55 million years ago, the Earth experienced a strong global warming event, the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum. The leading hypothesis to explain the extreme greenhouse conditions prevalent during this period is the dissociation of 1,400 to 2,800 gigatonnes of methane from ocean clathrates, resulting in a large negative carbon isotope excursion and severe carbonate dissolution in marine sediments. Possible triggering mechanisms for this event include crossing a threshold temperature as the Earth warmed gradually, comet impact, explosive volcanism or ocean current reorganization and erosion at continental slopes, whereas orbital forcing has been excluded. Here we report a distinct carbonate-poor red clay layer in deep-sea cores from Walvis ridge, which we term the Elmo horizon. Using orbital tuning, we estimate deposition of the Elmo horizon at about 2 million years after the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum. The Elmo horizon has similar geochemical and biotic characteristics as the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum, but of smaller magnitude. It is coincident with carbon isotope depletion events in other ocean basins, suggesting that it represents a second global thermal maximum. We show that both events correspond to maxima in the approximately 405-kyr and approximately 100-kyr eccentricity cycles that post-date prolonged minima in the 2.25-Myr eccentricity cycle, implying that they are indeed astronomically paced.}, }
@article {pmid15944669, year = {2005}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change: that sinking feeling.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {435}, number = {7043}, pages = {732-733}, doi = {10.1038/435732a}, pmid = {15944669}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Computer Simulation ; Fires ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/metabolism ; Research/*trends ; Siberia ; Soil/analysis ; Temperature ; Trees/*metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid15943362, year = {2005}, author = {Liu, T and Yin, X and Qi, C and Tang, J and Chen, M}, title = {[Relationships between climate change and rice development and its yield formation: a simulation study].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {486-490}, pmid = {15943362}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Biomass ; China ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Crops, Agricultural ; *Ecosystem ; Oryza ; }, abstract = {With the application of mechanistic model (RICAM 1.3, RIce growth Calendar Model), this paper simulated the rice development and its yield formation under different climatic conditions at multi-locations of Asia. A three-stage Beta model (3s-Beta) was developed to predict the flowering stage of rice and to describe its three successive phases of photo-thermal response, i.e., basic vegetative phase, photoperiod-sensitive phase, and post photoperiod-sensitive phase. The 1980-1989 multi-location data of Morioka (Japan, 39 degrees 43'N), Nanchang (China, 28 degrees 36'N) and Los Banos (Philippines, 14 degrees 11'N) were used to verify the suitability of the model in studying ecosystem change. Comparisons of simulated results with observed data showed that this model could generally predict the eco-physiological processes of rice, and performed very well over a wide range of environments.}, }
@article {pmid15938749, year = {2005}, author = {Peck, LS}, title = {Prospects for surviving climate change in Antarctic aquatic species.}, journal = {Frontiers in zoology}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {9}, pmid = {15938749}, issn = {1742-9994}, abstract = {Maritime Antarctic freshwater habitats are amongst the fastest changing environments on Earth. Temperatures have risen around 1 degrees C and ice cover has dramatically decreased in 15 years. Few animal species inhabit these sites, but the fairy shrimp Branchinecta gaini typifies those that do. This species survives up to 25 degrees C daily temperature fluctuations in summer and passes winter as eggs at temperatures down to -25 degrees C. Its annual temperature envelope is, therefore around 50 degrees C. This is typical of Antarctic terrestrial species, which exhibit great physiological flexibility in coping with temperature fluctuations. The rapidly changing conditions in the Maritime Antarctic are enhancing fitness in these species by increasing the time available for feeding, growth and reproduction, as well as increasing productivity in lakes. The future problem these animals face is via displacement by alien species from lower latitudes. Such invasions are now well documented from sub-Antarctic sites. In contrast the marine Antarctic environment has very stable temperatures. However, seasonality is intense with very short summers and long winter periods of low to no algal productivity. Marine animals grow slowly, have long generation times, low metabolic rates and low levels of activity. They also die at temperatures between +5 degrees C and +10 degrees C. Failure of oxygen supply mechanisms and loss of aerobic scope defines upper temperature limits. As temperature rises, their ability to perform work declines rapidly before lethal limits are reached, such that 50% of populations of clams and limpets cannot perform essential activities at 2-3 degrees C, and all scallops are incapable of swimming at 2 degrees C. Currently there is little evidence of temperature change in Antarctic marine sites. Models predict average global sea temperatures will rise by around 2 degrees C by 2100. Such a rise would take many Antarctic marine animals beyond their survival limits. Animals have 3 mechanisms for coping with change: they can 1) use physiological flexibility, 2) evolve new adaptations, 3) migrate to better sites. Antarctic marine species have poor physiological scopes, long generation times and live on a continent whose coastline covers fewer degrees of latitude than all others. On all 3 counts Antarctic marine species have poorer prospects than most large faunal groups elsewhere.}, }
@article {pmid15926223, year = {2005}, author = {Senhorst, HA and Zwolsman, JJ}, title = {Climate change and effects on water quality: a first impression.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {51}, number = {5}, pages = {53-59}, pmid = {15926223}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Disasters ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature ; Netherlands ; Quality Control ; *Water Pollutants ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {A number of possible relationships between climate change and water quality of Dutch surface waters have been investigated and an indicative quantification of the impact of climate change on water quality has been established. The analysis focused on water quality during periods of low flow and extreme heat, which are assumed to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change. The results indicate that the impact of climate change on water quality cannot be generalised and should be assessed on a case by case basis. However, the impact on extreme situations (floods and droughts) seems to be largest, whilst water quality under average discharge conditions appears to be relatively unchanged.}, }
@article {pmid15924206, year = {2005}, author = {Jiongxin, X}, title = {The water fluxes of the Yellow River to the sea in the past 50 years, in response to climate change and human activities.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {620-631}, pmid = {15924206}, issn = {0364-152X}, mesh = {China ; Geologic Sediments ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; Rain ; Regression Analysis ; *Rivers ; Temperature ; *Water Movements ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Since the 1970s, the water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River have declined significantly. Based on data of precipitation, air temperature, the measured and "natural" river flow, the water diversion and consumption, and the areas of erosion and sediment control measures over the drainage basin, water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River are studied in relation with the influences of changing climate and human activities. The Yellow River basin can be divided into different water source areas; multiple regression indicates that the variation in precipitation over different water source areas has different effect on water fluxes to the sea. In the period between 1970 and 1997, averaged air temperature over the whole Yellow River increased by about 1.0 degree C, from 16.5 degrees C to 17.5 degrees C, a factor that is negatively correlated with the water yield of the Yellow River. Water diversion and consumption has sharply increased and resulted in a significant decline in the water fluxes to the sea. Since the 1960s, erosion and sediment control measures have been practiced over the drainage basin. This factor, to a lesser degree, is also responsible for the decrease in water fluxes to the sea. A multiple regression equation has been established to estimate the change in water fluxes to the sea caused by the changes in precipitation, air temperature, water diversion and consumption, erosion, and sediment control measures, indicating that the contribution of water diversion and consumption to the variation in annual water flux to the sea is 41.3%, that of precipitation is 40.8%, that of temperature is 11.4%, and that of erosion and sediment control measures is 6.5%.}, }
@article {pmid15922449, year = {2005}, author = {Dore, MH}, title = {Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: what do we know?.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {31}, number = {8}, pages = {1167-1181}, doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2005.03.004}, pmid = {15922449}, issn = {0160-4120}, mesh = {Data Collection ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; Policy Making ; *Rain ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The objective of this paper is to synthesize the large literature recording changing patterns of precipitation in the observed data, thus indicating that climate change is already a reality. Such a synthesis is required not only for environmental researchers but also for policy makers. The key question is the broad picture at major regional and continental levels. Some interesting conclusions for this survey are emerging. For example, the review shows increased variance of precipitation everywhere. Consistent with this finding, we observe that wet areas become wetter, and dry and arid areas become more so. In addition, the following general changing pattern is emerging: (a) increased precipitation in high latitudes (Northern Hemisphere); (b) reductions in precipitation in China, Australia and the Small Island States in the Pacific; and (c) increased variance in equatorial regions. The changes in the major ocean currents also appear to be affecting precipitation patterns. For example, increased intensity and frequency of El Niño and ENSO seem associated with evidence of an observed "dipole" pattern affecting Africa and Asia, although this time series is too short so far. But the changing pattern calls for renewed efforts at adaptation to climate change, as the changing precipitation pattern will also affect the regional availability of food supply.}, }
@article {pmid15919825, year = {2005}, author = {Thuiller, W and Lavorel, S and Araújo, MB and Sykes, MT and Prentice, IC}, title = {Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {102}, number = {23}, pages = {8245-8250}, pmid = {15919825}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Europe ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. More than half of the species we studied could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. Expected species loss and turnover per pixel proved to be highly variable across scenarios (27-42% and 45-63% respectively, averaged over Europe) and across regions (2.5-86% and 17-86%, averaged over scenarios). Modeled species loss and turnover were found to depend strongly on the degree of change in just two climate variables describing temperature and moisture conditions. Despite the coarse scale of the analysis, species from mountains could be seen to be disproportionably sensitive to climate change (approximately 60% species loss). The boreal region was projected to lose few species, although gaining many others from immigration. The greatest changes are expected in the transition between the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions. We found that risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability.}, }
@article {pmid15919648, year = {2005}, author = {Lowe, R and Menown, IB and Nogareda, G and Penn, IM}, title = {Coronary stents: in these days of climate change should all stents wear coats?.}, journal = {Heart (British Cardiac Society)}, volume = {91 Suppl 3}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {iii20-3}, pmid = {15919648}, issn = {1468-201X}, mesh = {Carbon ; Carbon Compounds, Inorganic ; Chromium Alloys ; Coronary Restenosis/*prevention &amp; control ; Heparin ; Humans ; Metals ; Phosphorylcholine ; Silicon Compounds ; *Stents ; Tantalum ; }, }
@article {pmid15918358, year = {2005}, author = {van Walsum, PE and Runhaar, J and Helming, JF}, title = {Spatial planning for adapting to climate change.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {51}, number = {5}, pages = {45-52}, pmid = {15918358}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Conservation of Natural Resources/economics ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Poaceae ; Rivers ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {During the past decades human interference in regional hydrologic systems has intensified. These systems act as an integrating medium. They link climate, human activities and ecologic processes through groundwater and surface water interactions. For simulating these linkages an integrated regional hydrologic model has been coupled to an ecologic evaluation model. The simulated ecologic effects of climate change on mesotrophic riverine grasslands are clearly positive. Simulation results also indicate a high sensitivity of the peak discharges to the precipitation. For modelling the long-term development of land use and water management an integrated 'bio-economic' model has been constructed. It includes a model for the development of agriculture. Results for the autonomous development in reaction to climate change indicate a strong increase of field drainage by agriculture. This development would substantially reduce the predicted positive effects of climate change on riverine grasslands. The challenge is to guide regional developments in such a manner that opportunities for improving nature are not lost, but that at the same time the peak discharges are kept under control. Flow retardation in the 'fine arteries' of the upstream areas appear to be a viable option for the latter. The bio-economic model can provide help in anticipating on climate change through spatial planning.}, }
@article {pmid15918357, year = {2005}, author = {Ramaker, TA and Meuleman, AF and Bernhardi, L and Cirkel, G}, title = {Climate change and drinking water production in The Netherlands: a flexible approach.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {51}, number = {5}, pages = {37-44}, pmid = {15918357}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {*Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Netherlands ; Sodium Chloride ; Waste Disposal, Fluid ; Water/chemistry ; Water Microbiology ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Climate change increases water system dynamics through temperature changes, changes in precipitation patterns, evaporation, water quality and water storage in ice packs. Water system dependent economical stakeholders, such as drinking water companies in The Netherlands, have to cope with consequences of climate change, e.g. floods and water shortages in river systems, upconing brackish ground water, salt water intrusion, increasing peak demands and microbiological activity. In the past decades, however, both water systems and drinking water production have become more and more inflexible; water systems have been heavily regulated and the drinking water supply has grown into an inflexible, but cheap and reliable, system. Flexibility and adaptivity are solutions to overcome climate change related consequences. Flexible adaptive strategies for drinking water production comprise new sources for drinking water production, application of storage concepts in the short term, and a redesign of large centralised systems, including flexible treatment plants, in the long term. Transition to flexible concepts will take decades because investment depreciation periods of assets are long. This implies that long-term strategies within an indicated time path have to be developed. These strategies must be based on thorough knowledge of current assets to seize opportunities for change.}, }
@article {pmid15918356, year = {2005}, author = {Peperzak, L}, title = {Future increase in harmful algal blooms in the North Sea due to climate change.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {51}, number = {5}, pages = {31-36}, pmid = {15918356}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Eutrophication ; Fishes ; *Food Chain ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; North Sea ; Phytoplankton/growth &amp; development ; Public Health ; Recreation ; Risk Assessment ; Shellfish ; }, abstract = {In temperate seas such as the North Sea harmful (toxic) algal blooms will probably increase as a result of climate change. This conclusion was reached after investigating the projected effect of climate change for the year 2100 in Dutch coastal waters (4 degrees C temperature rise and increased water column stratification) on the growth rates of six harmful and two non-harmful phytoplankton species. Micro algae form the basis of the marine food chain. However, toxin-producing species may seriously disrupt the food web and lead to fish kills and human intoxication. Two species with estimated doubled growth rates in 2100, F. japonica and C. antiqua, entered Europe via ship's ballast water or shellfish imports. This stresses the need to legally regulate such invasion routes in order to prevent the import of novel species. Future toxic phytoplankton blooms may further devaluate ecosystem deliverables such as fish production or recreational use. This devaluation can be estimated by monetary value assessments that are needed in cost-benefit analyses for policy guidance. The lack of understanding of future climate, ecosystem functioning and its response to climate change calls for a scientific effort to improve our knowledge on present day coastal ecosystem functioning and its resilience.}, }
@article {pmid15913054, year = {2005}, author = {de Castro González, FV}, title = {[Climate change and Kyoto Protocol. Science and strategies. Obligations for Spain].}, journal = {Revista espanola de salud publica}, volume = {79}, number = {2}, pages = {191-201}, pmid = {15913054}, issn = {1135-5727}, mesh = {Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/trends ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Spain ; }, abstract = {This article presents climate change as the major environmental problem of our time. A result of the so-called "greenhouse effect", climate change is caused by certain gases, the concentrations in the atmosphere of which are growing exponentially. The consequences of these gases are going to be felt throughout the entire biosphere, from weather phenomenon to humans, creating a uncertain panorama which is going to be requiring some fast-paced adaptation on the part of all species. This is not, however, an irreversible process, taking action thus being possible and necessary, by combining education and lawmaking measures brought into being within the timeframes and to the extents set forth under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Spain will be one of the most highly-affected countries, and its strategy may therefore mean a highly-valuable tool for correcting the deviations caused and contributing to the urgent control of global emissions.}, }
@article {pmid15913053, year = {2005}, author = {López-Vélez, R and Molina Moreno, R}, title = {[Climate change in spain and risk of infectious and parasitic diseases transmitted by arthropods and rodents].}, journal = {Revista espanola de salud publica}, volume = {79}, number = {2}, pages = {177-190}, doi = {10.1590/s1135-57272005000200006}, pmid = {15913053}, issn = {1135-5727}, mesh = {Animals ; Arthropod Vectors ; Arthropods ; Climate ; Humans ; Parasitic Diseases/*epidemiology ; Risk ; Rodentia ; Spain/epidemiology ; Tick-Borne Diseases/*epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Due to Spain's being located near Africa, being a stopping-off point for migrating birds and individuals and due to its climate conditions, nearing those of areas where there are vector-borne diseases, this is a country where this type of diseases could taken on greater importance due to the climate change. The possible risk would result from the geographical spread of already established vectors or due to subtropical vectors adapted to surviving in cooler, dried climates being imported and taking up residence. Hypothetically, the vector-borne diseases subject to be influenced by the climate change in Spain would be those transmitted by dipterans, such as dengue fever, West Nile encephalitis, Rift Valley fever, malaria and leishmaniasis; tick-transmitted diseases, such as Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, tick-borne encephalitis, Lyme disease, spotted fever and endemic relapsing fever; and rodent-transmitted diseases. But the greatest, most viable threat would be the Aedes albopictus mosquito, which would be capable of transmitting viral diseases such as West Nile encephalitis or dengue fever, taking up residence. But, for actual areas of endemia being established, a combination of other factors, such as the massive, simultaneous influx of animal or human reservoirs and the deterioration of the social healthcare conditions and of the Public Health services.}, }
@article {pmid15913052, year = {2005}, author = {Ballester, F}, title = {[Air pollution, climate change and health].}, journal = {Revista espanola de salud publica}, volume = {79}, number = {2}, pages = {159-175}, doi = {10.1590/s1135-57272005000200005}, pmid = {15913052}, issn = {1135-5727}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Air Pollution/analysis/*prevention &amp; control ; Climate ; Environmental Monitoring/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*standards ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; Humans ; Public Health/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/standards ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Emissions into the atmosphere related to the climate change may further worsen the effects which air pollution has on the health of our citizens, not only indirectly due to the impact of weather phenomenon, but directly, due to the direct effects pollutants have on health. However, the efforts throughout most of the world have been aimed at dealing with these two problems separately for too many years. In fact, it is very often believed that the climate's health-safeguarding benefits would be achieved in the long term. To the contrary, what has become obvious over recent years is that the actions for reducing the emissions of polluting gases could redound in beneficial effects in the short term due to the reduction of the impact of air pollutants on the health of our citizens. This article presents the possible risks of the pollutants most closely related to climate changes, such as ozone and fine particles. Bearing in mind the uncertainties and unknowns related to this subject, the main implications for the policies related to this matter in Spain, as well as the needs for research are set out herein. In this regard, both from the standpoint of monitoring as well as research, it is considered necessary for an epidemiological monitoring system of the effects of air pollution and the relationship thereof to global changes to be established.}, }
@article {pmid15890861, year = {2005}, author = {Pielke, RA and Oreskes, N}, title = {Consensus about climate change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {308}, number = {5724}, pages = {952-4; author reply 952-4}, doi = {10.1126/science.308.5724.952}, pmid = {15890861}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15890845, year = {2005}, author = {Perry, AL and Low, PJ and Ellis, JR and Reynolds, JD}, title = {Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {308}, number = {5730}, pages = {1912-1915}, doi = {10.1126/science.1111322}, pmid = {15890845}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Size ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Fisheries ; *Fishes/anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development ; North Sea ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; *Seawater ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {We show that the distributions of both exploited and nonexploited North Sea fishes have responded markedly to recent increases in sea temperature, with nearly two-thirds of species shifting in mean latitude or depth or both over 25 years. For species with northerly or southerly range margins in the North Sea, half have shown boundary shifts with warming, and all but one shifted northward. Species with shifting distributions have faster life cycles and smaller body sizes than nonshifting species. Further temperature rises are likely to have profound impacts on commercial fisheries through continued shifts in distribution and alterations in community interactions.}, }
@article {pmid15889057, year = {2005}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Cleaner skies leave global warming forecasts uncertain.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {435}, number = {7039}, pages = {135}, doi = {10.1038/435135a}, pmid = {15889057}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid15870051, year = {2005}, author = {Loustau, D and Bosc, A and Colin, A and Ogée, J and Davi, H and François, C and Dufrêne, E and Déqué, M and Cloppet, E and Arrouays, D and Le Bas, C and Saby, N and Pignard, G and Hamza, N and Granier, A and Bréda, N and Ciais, P and Viovy, N and Delage, F}, title = {Modeling climate change effects on the potential production of French plains forests at the sub-regional level.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {25}, number = {7}, pages = {813-823}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/25.7.813}, pmid = {15870051}, issn = {0829-318X}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Computer Simulation ; Ecosystem ; Forestry ; France ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; Trees/anatomy &amp; histology/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; Water/metabolism ; Wood/anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, abstract = {We modeled the effects of climate change and two forest management scenarios on wood production and forest carbon balance in French forests using process-based models of forest growth. We combined data from the national forest inventory and soil network survey, which were aggregated over a 50 x 50-km grid, i.e., the spatial resolution of the climate scenario data. We predicted and analyzed the climate impact on potential forest production over the period 1960-2100. All models predicted a slight increase in potential forest yield until 2030-2050, followed by a plateau or a decline around 2070-2100, with overall, a greater increase in yield in northern France than in the south. Gross and net primary productivities were more negatively affected by soil water and atmospheric water vapor saturation deficits in western France because of a more pronounced shift in seasonal rainfall from summer to winter. The rotation-averaged values of carbon flux and production for different forest management options were estimated during four years (1980, 2015, 2045 and 2080). Predictions were made using a two-dimensional matrix covering the range of local soil and climate conditions. The changes in ecosystem fluxes and forest production were explained by the counterbalancing effect of rising CO2 concentration and increasing water deficit. The effect of climate change decreased with rotation length from short rotations with high production rates and low standing biomasses to long rotations with low productivities and greater standing biomasses. Climate effects on productivity, both negative and positive, were greatest on high fertility sites. Forest productivity in northern France was enhanced by climate change, increasingly from west to east, whereas in the southwestern Atlantic region, productivity was reduced by climate change to an increasing degree from west to east.}, }
@article {pmid15866757, year = {2005}, author = {Booth, S and Zeller, D}, title = {Mercury, food webs, and marine mammals: implications of diet and climate change for human health.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {113}, number = {5}, pages = {521-526}, pmid = {15866757}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate ; *Environmental Exposure ; Environmental Pollutants/*pharmacokinetics/*poisoning ; Female ; Fishes ; *Food Chain ; *Food Contamination ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Meat ; Methylmercury Compounds/*pharmacokinetics/*poisoning ; Middle Aged ; *Models, Theoretical ; Reference Values ; Risk Assessment ; Whales ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {We modeled the flow of methyl mercury, a toxic global pollutant, in the Faroe Islands marine ecosystem and compared average human methyl mercury exposure from consumption of pilot whale meat and fish (cod, Gadus morhua) with current tolerable weekly intake (TWI) levels. Under present conditions and climate change scenarios, methyl mercury increased in the ecosystem, translating into increased human exposure over time. However, we saw greater changes as a result of changing fishing mortalities. A large portion of the general human population exceed the TWI levels set by the World Health Organization [WHO; 1.6 microg/kg body weight (bw)], and they all exceed the reference dose (RfD) of 0.1 microg/kg bw/day set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA; equivalent to a TWI of 0.7 microg/kg bw). As a result of an independent study documenting that Faroese children exposed prenatally to methyl mercury had reduced cognitive abilities, pregnant women have decreased their intake of whale meat and were below the TWI levels set by the WHO and the U.S. EPA. Cod had approximately 95% lower methyl mercury concentrations than did pilot whale. Thus, the high and harmful levels of methyl mercury in the diet of Faroe Islanders are driven by whale meat consumption, and the increasing impact of climate change is likely to exacerbate this situation. Significantly, base inflow rates of mercury into the environment would need to be reduced by approximately 50% to ensure levels of intake below the WHO TWI levels, given current levels of whale consumption.}, }
@article {pmid15866268, year = {2005}, author = {Macdonald, RW and Harner, T and Fyfe, J}, title = {Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {342}, number = {1-3}, pages = {5-86}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2004.12.059}, pmid = {15866268}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Air Movements ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate ; Diet ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; *Food Chain ; Greenhouse Effect ; Metals, Heavy/*analysis ; Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons/*analysis ; Radioactive Pollutants/analysis ; Rain ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The Arctic has undergone dramatic change during the past decade. The observed changes include atmospheric sea-level pressure, wind fields, sea-ice drift, ice cover, length of melt season, change in precipitation patterns, change in hydrology and change in ocean currents and watermass distribution. It is likely that these primary changes have altered the carbon cycle and biological systems, but the difficulty of observing these together with sporadic, incomplete time series makes it difficult to evaluate what the changes have been. Because contaminants enter global systems and transport through air and water, the changes listed above will clearly alter contaminant pathways. Here, we review what is known about recent changes using the Arctic Oscillation as a proxy to help us understand the forms under which global change will be manifest in the Arctic. For Pb, Cd and Zn, the Arctic is likely to become a more effective trap because precipitation is likely to increase. In the case of Cd, the natural cycle in the ocean appears to have a much greater potential to alter exposure than do human releases of this metal. Mercury has an especially complex cycle in the Arctic including a unique scavenging process (mercury depletion events), biomagnifying foodwebs, and chemical transformations such as methylation. The observation that mercury seems to be increasing in a number of aquatic species whereas atmospheric gaseous mercury shows little sign of change suggests that factors related to change in the physical system (ice cover, permafrost degradation, organic carbon cycling) may be more important than human activities. Organochlorine contaminants offer a surprising array of possibilities for changed pathways. To change in precipitation patterns can be added change in ice cover (air-water exchange), change in food webs either from the top down or from the bottom up (biomagnification), change in the organic carbon cycle and change in diets. Perhaps the most interesting possibility, presently difficult to predict, is combination of immune suppression together with expanding ranges of disease vectors. Finally, biotransport through migratory species is exceptionally vulnerable to changes in migration strength or in migration pathway-in the Arctic, change in the distribution of ice and temperature may already have caused such changes. Hydrocarbons, which tend to impact surfaces, will be mostly affected by change in the ice climate (distribution and drift tracks). Perhaps the most dramatic changes will occur because our view of the Arctic Ocean will change as it becomes more amenable to transport, tourism and mineral exploration on the shelves. Radionuclides have tended not to produce a radiological problem in the Arctic; nevertheless one pathway, the ice, remains a risk because it can accrue, concentrate and transport radio-contaminated sediments. This pathway is sensitive to where ice is produced, what the transport pathways of ice are, and where ice is finally melted-all strong candidates for change during the coming century. The changes that have already occurred in the Arctic and those that are projected to occur have an effect on contaminant time series including direct measurements (air, water, biota) or proxies (sediment cores, ice cores, archive material). Although these 'system' changes can alter the flux and concentrations at given sites in a number of obvious ways, they have been all but ignored in the interpretation of such time series. To understand properly what trends mean, especially in complex 'recorders' such as seals, walrus and polar bears, demands a more thorough approach to time series by collecting data in a number of media coherently. Presently, a major reservoir for contaminants and the one most directly connected to biological uptake in species at greatest risk-the ocean-practically lacks such time series.}, }
@article {pmid15860627, year = {2005}, author = {Umina, PA and Weeks, AR and Kearney, MR and McKechnie, SW and Hoffmann, AA}, title = {A rapid shift in a classic clinal pattern in Drosophila reflecting climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {308}, number = {5722}, pages = {691-693}, doi = {10.1126/science.1109523}, pmid = {15860627}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Alcohol Dehydrogenase/*genetics ; Animals ; Australia ; Chromosome Inversion ; *Climate ; Drosophila melanogaster/enzymology/*genetics ; Gene Frequency ; Genes, Insect ; Geography ; Glycerolphosphate Dehydrogenase/genetics ; *Polymorphism, Genetic ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Geographical clines in genetic polymorphisms are widely used as evidence of climatic selection and are expected to shift with climate change. We show that the classic latitudinal cline in the alcohol dehydrogenase polymorphism of Drosophila melanogaster has shifted over 20 years in eastern coastal Australia. Southern high-latitude populations now have the genetic constitution of more northerly populations, equivalent to a shift of 4 degrees in latitude. A similar shift was detected for a genetically independent inversion polymorphism, whereas two other linked polymorphisms exhibiting weaker clinal patterns have remained relatively stable. These genetic changes are likely to reflect increasingly warmer and drier conditions and may serve as sensitive biomarkers for climate change.}, }
@article {pmid15860000, year = {2005}, author = {Oiso, N and Fukai, K and Ishii, M and Ohgushi, T and Kubota, S}, title = {Jellyfish dermatitis caused by Porpita pacifica, a sign of global warming?.}, journal = {Contact dermatitis}, volume = {52}, number = {4}, pages = {232-233}, doi = {10.1111/j.0105-1873.2005.0566f.x}, pmid = {15860000}, issn = {0105-1873}, mesh = {Adult ; Animals ; Bites and Stings/*complications ; Cnidarian Venoms/*adverse effects ; Dermatitis, Allergic Contact/*etiology ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Hydrozoa ; Male ; }, }
@article {pmid15858543, year = {2005}, author = {Williams, R}, title = {Climate change blamed for rise in hay fever.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {434}, number = {7037}, pages = {1059}, doi = {10.1038/nature03682}, pmid = {15858543}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Japan/epidemiology ; Male ; Pollen/immunology ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*epidemiology/*etiology/immunology/physiopathology ; Temperature ; Trees/immunology/physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid15854878, year = {2005}, author = {Hales, S and Woodward, A}, title = {Global climate change and malaria.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {258-9; author reply 259-60}, doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(05)70092-X}, pmid = {15854878}, issn = {1473-3099}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; *Climate ; Humans ; Incidence ; Malaria/epidemiology/*transmission ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid15854877, year = {2005}, author = {Tanser, F and Sharp, B}, title = {Global climate change and malaria.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {256-258}, doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(05)70091-8}, pmid = {15854877}, issn = {1473-3099}, mesh = {Africa, Southern/epidemiology ; *Developing Countries ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid15853068, year = {2005}, author = {Nash, JM}, title = {Where the waters are rising: a close-up look at the low-lying Malsives, where global warming hits the seawall.}, journal = {Time}, volume = {165}, number = {17}, pages = {46-50}, pmid = {15853068}, issn = {0040-781X}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; *Implosive Therapy ; Indian Ocean Islands ; }, }
@article {pmid15852949, year = {2005}, author = {Yu, D and Wang, S and Tang, L and Dai, L and Wang, Q and Wang, S}, title = {[Relationship between tree-ring chronology of Larix olgensis in Changbai Mountains and the climate change].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {14-20}, pmid = {15852949}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; Larix/*growth &amp; development ; Plant Stems/growth &amp; development ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {The relationship of larch (Larix olgensis) radial growth in Changbai Mountains with climate change was assessed by dendrochronological techniques including correlation functions and single-years analysis. The results showed that larch growth was sensitive to environmental change, and temperature was the primary factor affecting larch growth. The larch growing in high and low elevations had a significantly different response to temperature. In high elevation, larch growth was significant correlated to the mean temperature of June, but in low elevation, it had a more complicated relationship to the environment. Besides the mean temperature of April and May, the temperature of last June and September and the humid index of last September significantly correlated with the larch tree ring-width. Therefore, it was not the same relationship of the same tree species with different environmental gradients.}, }
@article {pmid15852923, year = {2005}, author = {Wang, S and Zhou, G and Gao, S and Guo, J}, title = {[Gradient distribution of soil nitrogen and its response to climate change along the Northeast China Transect].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {279-283}, pmid = {15852923}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; China ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Nitrogen/*analysis ; *Soil ; }, abstract = {Terrestrial transect is an important and effective method for global change study. The Northeast China Transect (NECT), which is assigned along the latitude 43 degrees 30'N in the mid-latitude of temperate zone and located at 112 degrees-130 degrees 30'E and 42-46 degrees N, is one of the fifteen global transects recognized by IGBP. It is about 1600 km in length and 300 km in width. The NECT is mainly driven by precipitation, and becomes an effective platform of global change study in China. Based on the field survey in 2001 and a simulated experiment, this paper analyzed the gradient distribution of soil nitrogen and its response to climate change along the Transect. The results indicated that soil total and available nitrogen in NECT were significantly related to longitude, with a correlation coefficient being 0.695 (P < 0.001) and 0. 636 (P < 0.001), respectively, and had a similar horizontal distribution with soil organic carbon. Soil available nitrogen content in the NECT was decreased from east to west, and could be one of factors restricting plant growth. The decreasing rate of soil total and available nitrogen from topsoil to subsoil was different with ecosystems along the NECT. Soil total and available nitrogen contents had a close linear relationship with soil pH, total and labile carbon, total and available phosphorus, total sulphur, total and available zinc, available potassium, available manganese, bulk density, water holding capacity, and total porosity. They also had a significant linear relationship with precipitation, the correlation coefficient being 0.682 (P < 0.001) and 0.688 (P < 0.001), respectively. The short-term simulated experiment showed that doubled ambient CO2 concentration and soil moisture regime had no significant effects on soil total and available nitrogen, the variation coefficients being 5.55% and 3.84%, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid15845816, year = {2005}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Global warming skeptic argues U.S. position in suit.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {308}, number = {5721}, pages = {482}, doi = {10.1126/science.308.5721.482}, pmid = {15845816}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15831755, year = {2005}, author = {Huey, RB and Ward, PD}, title = {Hypoxia, global warming, and terrestrial late Permian extinctions.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {308}, number = {5720}, pages = {398-401}, doi = {10.1126/science.1108019}, pmid = {15831755}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; *Atmosphere ; Biodiversity ; Computer Simulation ; Crowding ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; Fossils ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Oxygen/analysis ; Population Density ; Respiration ; Temperature ; Time ; Vertebrates/*physiology ; }, abstract = {A catastrophic extinction occurred at the end of the Permian Period. However, baseline extinction rates appear to have been elevated even before the final catastrophe, suggesting sustained environmental degradation. For terrestrial vertebrates during the Late Permian, the combination of a drop in atmospheric oxygen plus climate warming would have induced hypoxic stress and consequently compressed altitudinal ranges to near sea level. Our simulations suggest that the magnitude of altitudinal compression would have forced extinctions by reducing habitat diversity, fragmenting and isolating populations, and inducing a species-area effect. It also might have delayed ecosystem recovery after the mass extinction.}, }
@article {pmid15829944, year = {2005}, author = {Stocker, TF and Raible, CC}, title = {Climate change: water cycle shifts gear.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {434}, number = {7035}, pages = {830-833}, doi = {10.1038/434830a}, pmid = {15829944}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid15825264, year = {2005}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {New studies raise global warming fears.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {15}, number = {6}, pages = {R183-4}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2005.03.001}, pmid = {15825264}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {Animals ; Anthozoa/physiology ; Australia ; *Fossils ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pacific Ocean ; Population Dynamics ; Rhizophoraceae/physiology ; Ursidae/physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid15817435, year = {2005}, author = {Renaud, S and Michaux, J and Schmidt, DN and Aguilar, JP and Mein, P and Auffray, JC}, title = {Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {272}, number = {1563}, pages = {609-617}, pmid = {15817435}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; *Diet ; *Environment ; *Fossils ; France ; Molar/*anatomy &amp; histology/physiology ; Odontometry ; Rodentia/*anatomy &amp; histology ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of morphological evolution along both lineages and compare them to environmental trends. Climatic changes do not have a direct influence on evolution, but they open new ecological opportunities by changing vegetation and allow the evolution of a specialist like Stephanomys. On the other hand, environmental changes are not dramatic enough to destroy the habitat of a long-term generalist like Apodemus. Hence, our results exemplify a case of an influence of climate on the evolution of specialist species, although a generalist species may persist without change.}, }
@article {pmid15801613, year = {2004}, author = {Julliard, R and Jiguet, F and Couvet, D}, title = {Evidence for the impact of global warming on the long-term population dynamics of common birds.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {271 Suppl 6}, number = {Suppl 6}, pages = {S490-2}, pmid = {15801613}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; France ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Logistic Models ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Taking the opportunity in 2003 of the exceptionally warm spring in France as a natural simulation of possible future climate, we analysed common bird productivity using the French long-term capture-recapture national monitoring scheme. Two-thirds of the 32 species studied had an above-average productivity in 2003. However, this gain in productivity was not consistent among species, with a relatively low productivity for species exhibiting a long-term decline and relatively high productivity for stable or increasing species. Such links between long-term and short-term dynamics suggest that the impact of increasingly warm springs on productivity is a major component of the recent population dynamics of a variety of common bird species.}, }
@article {pmid15800596, year = {2005}, author = {Monbiot, G and Lynas, M and Marshall, G and Juniper, T and Tindale, S}, title = {Time to speak up for climate-change science.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {434}, number = {7033}, pages = {559}, doi = {10.1038/434559a}, pmid = {15800596}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Communication ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Lobbying ; *Public Opinion ; Reproducibility of Results ; Research Personnel/*standards ; }, }
@article {pmid15791228, year = {2005}, author = {Byravan, S and Rajan, SC}, title = {Immigration could ease climate-change impact.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {434}, number = {7032}, pages = {435}, doi = {10.1038/434435a}, pmid = {15791228}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Developed Countries/economics ; Developing Countries/economics ; *Emigration and Immigration/trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *International Cooperation ; Politics ; *Refugees ; }, }
@article {pmid15790817, year = {2005}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Paleoclimate. Ocean flow amplified, not triggered, climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {307}, number = {5717}, pages = {1854}, doi = {10.1126/science.307.5717.1854a}, pmid = {15790817}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15787050, year = {2005}, author = {Khogali, M}, title = {Health and disease in a changing Arab world 2000/2025/2050: global, environmental, and climate change and emerging diseases.}, journal = {Ethnicity &amp; disease}, volume = {15}, number = {1 Suppl 1}, pages = {S1-74-5}, pmid = {15787050}, issn = {1049-510X}, mesh = {Climate ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*epidemiology ; Delivery of Health Care/standards ; Environmental Health/statistics &amp; numerical data/*trends ; Health Expenditures/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *Health Transition ; Humans ; Life Expectancy ; Middle East/epidemiology ; *Population Growth ; }, }
@article {pmid15779130, year = {2005}, author = {Andrady, A and Aucamp, PJ and Bais, AF and Ballaré, CL and Björn, LO and Bornman, JF and Caldwell, M and Callaghan, T and Cullen, AP and Erickson, DJ and de Gruijl, FR and Häder, DP and Ilyas, M and Kulandaivelu, G and Kumar, HD and Longstreth, J and McKenzie, RL and Norval, M and Redhwi, HH and Smith, RC and Solomon, KR and Sulzberger, B and Takizawa, Y and Tang, X and Teramura, AH and Torikai, A and van der Leun, JC and Wilson, SR and Worrest, RC and Zepp, RG and , }, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2004.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {177-184}, doi = {10.1039/b418650h}, pmid = {15779130}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*chemistry ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; Humans ; *Ozone/analysis ; Radiation Injuries/epidemiology ; Ultraviolet Rays/*adverse effects ; }, abstract = {The complexity of the linkages between ozone depletion, UV-B radiation and climate change has become more apparent.}, }
@article {pmid15774757, year = {2005}, author = {Meehl, GA and Washington, WM and Collins, WD and Arblaster, JM and Hu, A and Buja, LE and Strand, WG and Teng, H}, title = {How much more global warming and sea level rise?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {307}, number = {5716}, pages = {1769-1772}, doi = {10.1126/science.1106663}, pmid = {15774757}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Two global coupled climate models show that even if the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the year 2000, we are already committed to further global warming of about another half degree and an additional 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century. Projected weakening of the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean does not lead to a net cooling in Europe. At any given point in time, even if concentrations are stabilized, there is a commitment to future climate changes that will be greater than those we have already observed.}, }
@article {pmid15774756, year = {2005}, author = {Wigley, TM}, title = {The climate change commitment.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {307}, number = {5716}, pages = {1766-1769}, doi = {10.1126/science.1103934}, pmid = {15774756}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Even if atmospheric composition were fixed today, global-mean temperature and sea level rise would continue due to oceanic thermal inertia. These constant-composition (CC) commitments and their uncertainties are quantified. Constant-emissions (CE) commitments are also considered. The CC warming commitment could exceed 1 degrees C. The CE warming commitment is 2 degrees to 6 degrees C by the year 2400. For sea level rise, the CC commitment is 10 centimeters per century (extreme range approximately 1 to 30 centimeters per century) and the CE commitment is 25 centimeters per century (7 to 50 centimeters per century). Avoiding these changes requires, eventually, a reduction in emissions to substantially below present levels. For sea level rise, a substantial long-term commitment may be impossible to avoid.}, }
@article {pmid15757363, year = {2005}, author = {Wilmers, CC and Getz, WM}, title = {Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone.}, journal = {PLoS biology}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {e92}, pmid = {15757363}, issn = {1545-7885}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Animals ; California ; *Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Statistical ; Population Density ; Regression Analysis ; Ruminants ; Seasons ; Weather ; Wolves/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change.}, }
@article {pmid15740100, year = {2005}, author = {Lin, H and Zhao, Y and Ellingson, BA and Pu, J and Truhlar, DG}, title = {Temperature dependence of carbon-13 kinetic isotope effects of importance to global climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the American Chemical Society}, volume = {127}, number = {9}, pages = {2830-2831}, doi = {10.1021/ja0434026}, pmid = {15740100}, issn = {0002-7863}, abstract = {We report here a theoretical study of the 13C kinetic isotope effect (KIE) and its temperature dependence for the reaction OH + CH4 --> H2O + CH3, the major sink of atmospheric methane in the troposphere. The KIE values at various atmospherically significant temperatures were determined by direct dynamics using variational transition state theory with multidimensional tunneling contributions (VTST/MT). The potential energy surfaces (PESs) were generated by hybrid density functional theory as well as by recently developed doubly hybrid density functional theory methods. Comparisons of our calculated KIEs with experimental data and theoretical values in the literature reveal the critical contributions due to multidimensional tunneling and torsion anharmonicity as well as the critical issue of the choice of internal rotational axis.}, }
@article {pmid15729321, year = {2005}, author = {Billups, K}, title = {Climate change: snow maker for the ice ages.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {433}, number = {7028}, pages = {809-810}, doi = {10.1038/433809a}, pmid = {15729321}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Cold Climate ; Diatoms/chemistry/metabolism ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; History, Ancient ; *Ice Cover ; Pacific Ocean ; Seasons ; Seawater/chemistry ; *Snow ; *Temperature ; Water/analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid15726919, year = {2005}, author = {Smith, RT}, title = {Comment on the "Climate change: why should water professionals care?" editorial by Marios Sophocleous (Ground Water 42, no. 5: 637).}, journal = {Ground water}, volume = {43}, number = {1}, pages = {2; author reply 2, 4}, pmid = {15726919}, issn = {0017-467X}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; United Nations ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid15723773, year = {2005}, author = {Williams, N}, title = {Heavyweight attack on climate-change denial.}, journal = {Current biology : CB}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {R109-10}, doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2005.02.002}, pmid = {15723773}, issn = {0960-9822}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *International Cooperation ; Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid15710942, year = {2005}, author = {Kovats, RS and Haines, A}, title = {Global climate change and health: recent findings and future steps.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {172}, number = {4}, pages = {501-502}, pmid = {15710942}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {Climate ; Europe/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Mortality ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid15710930, year = {2005}, author = {Eggertson, L}, title = {Climate change wars stall government plan.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {172}, number = {4}, pages = {456}, doi = {10.1503/cmaj.050070}, pmid = {15710930}, issn = {1488-2329}, mesh = {Canada ; Conservation of Energy Resources/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Government Agencies ; *Government Regulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid15709956, year = {2005}, author = {Helmuth, B and Kingsolver, JG and Carrington, E}, title = {Biophysics, physiological ecology, and climate change: does mechanism matter?.}, journal = {Annual review of physiology}, volume = {67}, number = {}, pages = {177-201}, doi = {10.1146/annurev.physiol.67.040403.105027}, pmid = {15709956}, issn = {0066-4278}, mesh = {Animals ; Biophysical Phenomena ; *Biophysics ; *Climate ; *Ecology ; *Physiology ; }, abstract = {Recent meta-analyses have shown that the effects of climate change are detectable and significant in their magnitude, but these studies have emphasized the utility of looking for large-scale patterns without necessarily understanding the mechanisms underlying these changes. Using a series of case studies, we explore the potential pitfalls when one fails to incorporate aspects of physiological performance when predicting the consequences of climate change on biotic communities. We argue that by considering the mechanistic details of physiological performance within the context of biophysical ecology (engineering methods of heat, mass and momentum exchange applied to biological systems), such approaches will be better poised to predict where and when the impacts of climate change will most likely occur.}, }
@article {pmid15707374, year = {2005}, author = {Sommer, AP and Wickramasinghe, NC}, title = {Functions and possible provenance of primordial proteins--Part II: microorganism aggregation in clouds triggered by climate change.}, journal = {Journal of proteome research}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {180-184}, doi = {10.1021/pr0498382}, pmid = {15707374}, issn = {1535-3893}, mesh = {*Air Microbiology ; Atmosphere ; Bacterial Adhesion ; Bacterial Proteins/*physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, abstract = {Current models predict that the elevation of the Earth's surface temperature due to global warming is accompanied by a warming of the troposphere, and a thickening cloud cover associated with longer-lasting clouds, in particular over land. These effects can have an instant impact on the vitality level of microorganisms in clouds and the spreading of airborne diseases. Microorganisms could originate from locations on the Earth, or even arrive from space. Primordial proteins in nanobacteria, only recently identified in the atmosphere, could play a significant role in clouds--accelerating the formation of cloud droplets and interconnecting nanobacteria (and possibly nanobacteria and other microorganisms), thus enhancing their chances to eventually reach the Earth.}, }
@article {pmid15705814, year = {2005}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. Millennium's hottest decade retains its title, for now.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {307}, number = {5711}, pages = {828-829}, doi = {10.1126/science.307.5711.828a}, pmid = {15705814}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15703731, year = {2005}, author = {Anderson, DM and Woodhouse, CA}, title = {Climate change: let all the voices be heard.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {433}, number = {7026}, pages = {587-588}, doi = {10.1038/433587a}, pmid = {15703731}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {*Climate ; Data Collection/*methods ; Geography ; Geologic Sediments/analysis ; Greenhouse Effect ; History, 15th Century ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, Medieval ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees/physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid15685226, year = {2005}, author = {Purse, BV and Mellor, PS and Rogers, DJ and Samuel, AR and Mertens, PP and Baylis, M}, title = {Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe.}, journal = {Nature reviews. Microbiology}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {171-181}, doi = {10.1038/nrmicro1090}, pmid = {15685226}, issn = {1740-1526}, support = {BBS/B/00646/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; BBS/E/I/00000999/BB_/Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Bluetongue/*epidemiology/transmission/virology ; Bluetongue virus/*physiology ; Ceratopogonidae/virology ; *Climate ; Europe/epidemiology ; Insect Vectors/virology ; Sheep ; }, abstract = {Bluetongue, a devastating disease of ruminants, has historically made only brief, sporadic incursions into the fringes of Europe. However, since 1998, six strains of bluetongue virus have spread across 12 countries and 800 km further north in Europe than has previously been reported. We suggest that this spread has been driven by recent changes in European climate that have allowed increased virus persistence during winter, the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola, the main bluetongue virus vector, and, beyond this vector's range, transmission by indigenous European Culicoides species - thereby expanding the risk of transmission over larger geographical regions. Understanding this sequence of events may help us predict the emergence of other vector-borne pathogens.}, }
@article {pmid15681356, year = {2005}, author = {Kaiser, J}, title = {Climate change. Scientist quits IPCC panel over comments.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {307}, number = {5709}, pages = {501}, doi = {10.1126/science.307.5709.501b}, pmid = {15681356}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15681348, year = {2005}, author = {Kintisch, E}, title = {Climate change. Panel urges unified action, sets 2 degrees target.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {307}, number = {5709}, pages = {496}, doi = {10.1126/science.307.5709.496a}, pmid = {15681348}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15667749, year = {2004}, author = {Kovats, RS}, title = {Will climate change really affect our health? Results from a European assessment.}, journal = {The journal of the British Menopause Society}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {139-144}, doi = {10.1258/1362180042721085}, pmid = {15667749}, issn = {1362-1807}, mesh = {*Climate ; Europe ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climate hazards such as floods and heat waves are known to affect health. The frequency and intensity of such events may change with global climate change. Our knowledge of the health impacts of such events is now increasing. Heat waves are associated with significant excess mortality, even in the UK population, and this is concentrated in the elderly. Social factors are also important in an individual's risk of dying during a heat wave. Floods may cause long-term psychological consequences. Our current capacity to address the health impacts of such events is, however, limited. There is a need for research to improve the effectiveness of interventions in the near term, as well as assess the adaptation strategies needed to address climate change in the long term.}, }
@article {pmid15667066, year = {2005}, author = {Thacker, PD}, title = {Global warming's other effects on the oceans.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {10A-11A}, pmid = {15667066}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Reference Values ; Risk Assessment ; Seawater/*chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid15662396, year = {2005}, author = {Powlson, D}, title = {Climatology: will soil amplify climate change?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {433}, number = {7023}, pages = {204-205}, doi = {10.1038/433204a}, pmid = {15662396}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon/*metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Soil/*analysis ; Soil Microbiology ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid15650907, year = {2005}, author = {Ebert, B and Fleischer, B}, title = {[Global warming and spread of infectious diseases].}, journal = {Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz}, volume = {48}, number = {1}, pages = {55-62}, doi = {10.1007/s00103-004-0968-3}, pmid = {15650907}, issn = {1436-9990}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; Disease Vectors ; Endemic Diseases ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Risk Assessment ; Tropical Climate ; Tropical Medicine ; Zoonoses/transmission ; }, abstract = {At the end of the twentieth century, tropical infectious diseases increased despite earlier successes of eradication campaigns. As a global warming of 1.4-5.8 degrees C is anticipated to occur by 2100, mainly the vector-borne tropical diseases that are particularly sensitive to climate are expected to spread. Although biological reasons seemingly support this hypothesis, ecological and socioeconomic factors have in the past proven to be stronger driving forces for the spread of infectious disease than climate.}, }
@article {pmid15645246, year = {2005}, author = {Galán, C and García-Mozo, H and Vázquez, L and Ruiz, L and de la Guardia, CD and Trigo, MM}, title = {Heat requirement for the onset of the Olea europaea L. pollen season in several sites in Andalusia and the effect of the expected future climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {49}, number = {3}, pages = {184-188}, pmid = {15645246}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {*Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature ; *Olea/growth &amp; development ; *Pollen ; Seasons ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Olives are one of the largest crops in the Mediterranean region, especially in Andalusia, in southern Spain. A thermal model has been developed for forecasting the start of the olive tree pollen season at five localities in Andalusia: Cordoba, Priego, Jaen, Granada and Malaga using airborne pollen and meteorological data from 1982 to 2001. Threshold temperatures varied between 5 degrees C and 12.5 degrees C depending on bio-geographical characteristics. The external validity of the results was tested using the data for the year 2002 as an independent variable and it confirmed the model's accuracy with only a few days difference from predicted values. All the localities had increasingly earlier start dates during the study period. This could confirm that olive flower phenology can be considered as a sensitive indicator of the effects of climate fluctuations in the Mediterranean area. The theoretical impact of the predicted climatic warming on the olive's flowering phenology at the end of the century is also proposed by applying Regional Climate Model data. A general advance, from 1 to 3 weeks could be expected, although this advance will be more pronounced in mid-altitude inland areas.}, }
@article {pmid15643959, year = {2005}, author = {Hull, JM and Girman, DJ}, title = {Effects of Holocene climate change on the historical demography of migrating sharp-shinned hawks (Accipiter striatus velox) in North America.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {159-170}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2004.02366.x}, pmid = {15643959}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Demography ; Genetics, Population ; Hawks/classification/genetics/*physiology ; North America ; Phylogeny ; }, abstract = {DNA sequences of the mitochondrial control region were analysed from 298 individual sharp-shinned hawks (Accipiter striatus velox) sampled at 12 different migration study sites across North America. The control region proved to be an appropriate genetic marker for identification of continental-scale population genetic structure and for determining the historical demography of population units. These data suggest that sharp-shinned hawks sampled at migration sites in North America are divided into distinct eastern and western groups. The eastern group appears to have recently expanded in response to the retreat of glacial ice at the end of the last glacial maximum. The western group appears to have been strongly effected by the Holocene Hypsithermal dry period, with molecular evidence indicating the most recent expansion following this mid-Holocene climatic event 7000-5000 years before present.}, }
@article {pmid15636637, year = {2005}, author = {Levitan, M and Etges, WJ}, title = {Climate change and recent genetic flux in populations of Drosophila robusta.}, journal = {BMC evolutionary biology}, volume = {5}, number = {}, pages = {4}, pmid = {15636637}, issn = {1471-2148}, mesh = {Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; Chromosome Mapping ; Chromosomes ; Climate ; Drosophila/*genetics/*physiology ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Female ; Genes, Insect ; Genetics, Population ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Karyotyping ; Male ; Polymorphism, Genetic ; Sex Factors ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Studied since the early 1940's, chromosomal polymorphisms in the deciduous woods species Drosophila robusta have been characterized by well-defined latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevational clines, but--until at least ten years ago--stable, local population frequencies. Recent biogeographical analyses indicate that D. robusta invaded North America from southeast Asia and has persisted in eastern temperate forests for at least 20-25 my without speciating. The abundant chromosome polymorphisms found across the range of D. robusta are thus likely to be relatively ancient, having accumulated over many well known climatic cycles in North America. Sufficient long-term data are now available such that we can now gauge the rate of these evolutionary changes in natural populations due to environmental change.<br><br>RESULTS: Recent local collections have revealed significant changes in the frequencies of several chromosomal forms. New data presented here extend the range of these changes to six states, three in the northeastern United States and three west of the Mississippi River. These data reinforce recent directional changes in which the frequencies of three gene arrangements have reached percentage levels typical of distant southern populations consistent with regional climatic changes. Another gene arrangement has been steadily decreasing in frequency at a number of the sites studied. Meteorological records from 1945 to 2003 indicate temperature increases at all study sites, particularly average minimum air temperatures.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Observation of parallel genetic flux suggests that these long-term temporal frequency shifts in widely disparate populations of D. robusta are evolutionary responses to environmental change. Since these chromosomes are known to be sensitive to ambient temperature, regional climatic shifts associated with global warming are likely to be responsible.}, }
@article {pmid15633538, year = {2004}, author = {Danielova, V and Kríz, B and Daniel, M and Benes, C and Valter, J and Kott, I}, title = {[Effects of climate change on the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in the Czech Republic in the past two decades].}, journal = {Epidemiologie, mikrobiologie, imunologie : casopis Spolecnosti pro epidemiologii a mikrobiologii Ceske lekarske spolecnosti J.E. Purkyne}, volume = {53}, number = {4}, pages = {174-181}, pmid = {15633538}, issn = {1210-7913}, mesh = {Czech Republic/epidemiology ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; *Meteorological Concepts ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The study objective was an attempt to explain uneven distribution of the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) throughout the past two decades. A sharp rise was recorded in the last decade: while 2596 TBE cases were reported in the decade 1983-1992, as many as 5892 TBE cases were reported in the decade 1993-2002, with high rates persisting also in the following years (606 TBE cases reported in 2003). Data from the database TBE EPIDAT of the National Institute of Public Health, Prague, and that of the Communicable Diseases Information System, Ostrava, were used for analysis. Meteorological data were taken from the database of the Czech Institute of Hydrometeorology, Prague. In 1971 to 2003, 13 231 laboratory confirmed TBE cases were reported in the Czech Republic. Uneven distribution of these TBE cases in time is consistent with the observations of climate variation made between 1931 and 2000. The increase in the TBE incidence in the Czech Republic in the last decade was characterized by the following features: 1) higher rates of TBE cases manifested in regular TBE natural focuses, 2) reemergence of TBE in the same localities after 20 and more year intervals and 3) emergence of TBE in localities where it was not reported before. At the same time shifts in TBE seasonal trends (i.e. to March and October-November) were observed, associated with a TBE incidence peak in autumn. Field research revealed that the major factor are the climate-related changes in ecology of the TBE vector Ixodes ricinus and resulting variation in its population density. TBE emergence in new areas is linked to the occurrence of ticks Ixodes ricinus at higher altitudes (previously found at 700 m and currently spreading to 1200 m) as well as to a coming warm climate era.}, }
@article {pmid15633033, year = {2004}, author = {Faisal, IM and Parveen, S}, title = {Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: implications for Bangladesh.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {34}, number = {4}, pages = {487-498}, pmid = {15633033}, issn = {0364-152X}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Bangladesh ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Food Supply ; Geographic Information Systems ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Oryza ; Population Growth ; Temperature ; Triticum ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.}, }
@article {pmid15624798, year = {2004}, author = {Wang, J and Pei, T}, title = {[Effects of climate change on forest succession].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {1722-1730}, pmid = {15624798}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Forest regeneration is an important process driven by forest ecological dynamic resources. More and more concern has been given to forest succession issues since the development of forest succession theory during the early twentieth century. Scientific management of forest ecosystem entails the regulations and research models of forest succession. It is of great practical and theoretical significance to restore and reconstruct forest vegetation and to protect natural forest. Disturbances are important factors affecting regeneration structure and ecological processes. They result in temporal and spatial variations of forest ecosystem, and change the efficiencies of resources. In this paper, some concepts about forest succession and disturbances were introduced, and the difficulties of forest succession were proposed. Four classes of models were reviewed: Markov model, GAP model, process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere models (BIOME series models), and non-linear model. Subsequently, the effects of climate change on forest succession caused by human activity were discussed. At last, the existing problem and future research directions were proposed.}, }
@article {pmid15620053, year = {2004}, author = {Chastel, C}, title = {[Emergence of new viruses in Asia: is climate change involved?].}, journal = {Medecine et maladies infectieuses}, volume = {34}, number = {11}, pages = {499-505}, pmid = {15620053}, issn = {0399-077X}, mesh = {Africa ; Asia ; Climate ; Humans ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Tropical Climate ; Virus Diseases/*classification/epidemiology/transmission ; Viruses/classification/*isolation &amp; purification ; }, abstract = {Tropical Africa is not the only area where deadly viruses have recently emerged. In South-East Asia severe epidemics of dengue hemorrhagic fever started in 1954 and flu pandemics have originated from China such as the Asian flu (H2N2) in 1957, the Hong-Kong flu (H3N2) in 1968, and the Russian flu (H1N1) in 1977. However, it is especially during the last ten years that very dangerous viruses for mankind have repeatedly developed in Asia, with the occurrence of Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever in Saudi Arabia (1995), avian flu (H5N1) in Hong-Kong (1997), Nipah virus encephalitis in Malaysia (1998,) and, above all, the SARS pandemic fever from Southern China (2002). The evolution of these viral diseases was probably not directly affected by climate change. In fact, their emergential success may be better explained by the development of large industry poultry flocks increasing the risks of epizootics, dietary habits, economic and demographic constraints, and negligence in the surveillance and reporting of the first cases.}, }
@article {pmid15616544, year = {2004}, author = {Penner, JE}, title = {Climate change: the cloud conundrum.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {432}, number = {7020}, pages = {962-963}, doi = {10.1038/432962a}, pmid = {15616544}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid15616521, year = {2004}, author = {Giles, J}, title = {Climatologists get real over global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {432}, number = {7020}, pages = {937}, doi = {10.1038/432937a}, pmid = {15616521}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid15615677, year = {2004}, author = {Roura-Pascual, N and Suarez, AV and Gómez, C and Pons, P and Touyama, Y and Wild, AL and Peterson, AT}, title = {Geographical potential of Argentine ants (Linepithema humile Mayr) in the face of global climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {271}, number = {1557}, pages = {2527-2535}, pmid = {15615677}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Ants/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Demography ; *Environment ; Forecasting ; Geography ; *Models, Biological ; }, abstract = {Determining the spread and potential geographical distribution of invasive species is integral to making invasion biology a predictive science. We assembled a dataset of over 1000 occurrences of the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile), one of the world's worst invasive alien species. Native to central South America, Argentine ants are now found in many Mediterranean and subtropical climates around the world. We used this dataset to assess the species' potential geographical and ecological distribution, and to examine changes in its distributional potential associated with global climate change, using techniques for ecological niche modelling. Models developed were highly predictive of the species' overall range, including both the native distributional area and invaded areas worldwide. Despite its already widespread occurrence, L. humile has potential for further spread, with tropical coastal Africa and southeast Asia apparently vulnerable to invasion. Projecting ecological niche models onto four general circulation model scenarios of future (2050s) climates provided scenarios of the species' potential for distributional expansion with warming climates: generally, the species was predicted to retract its range in tropical regions, but to expand at higher latitude areas.}, }
@article {pmid15609424, year = {2004}, author = {Higgins, PA}, title = {The Bush administration and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {306}, number = {5704}, pages = {2041; author reply 2041}, doi = {10.1126/science.306.5704.2041}, pmid = {15609424}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15606921, year = {2004}, author = {Tews, J and Jeltsch, F}, title = {Modelling the impact of climate change on woody plant population dynamics in South African savanna.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {17}, pmid = {15606921}, issn = {1472-6785}, mesh = {*Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Desert Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; *Plants ; Population Dynamics ; *Rain ; South Africa ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: In Southern Africa savannas climate change has been proposed to alter rainfall, the most important environmental driver for woody plants. Woody plants are a major component of savanna vegetation determining rangeland condition and biodiversity. In this study we use a spatially explicit, stochastic computer model to assess the impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited shrub species in the southern Kalahari. Understanding the population dynamics of Grewia flava is a crucial task, because it is widely involved in the shrub/bush encroachment process, a major concern for rangeland management due to its adverse effect on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity.<br><br>RESULTS: For our study we consider four climate change scenarios that have been proposed for the southern Kalahari for the coming decades: (1) an increase in annual precipitation by 30-40%, (2) a decrease by 5-15%, (3) an increase in variation of extreme rainfall years by 10-20%, (4) and increase in temporal auto-correlation, i.e. increasing length and variation of periodic rainfall oscillations related to El Nino/La Nina phenomena. We evaluate the slope z of the time-shrub density relationship to quantify the population trend. For each climate change scenario we then compared the departure of z from typical stable population dynamics under current climatic conditions. Based on the simulation experiments we observed a positive population trend for scenario (1) and a negative trend for scenario (2). In terms of the projected rates of precipitation change for scenario (3) and (4) population dynamics were found to be relatively stable. However, for a larger increase in inter-annual variation or in temporal auto-correlation of rainfall population trends were negative, because favorable rainfall years had a limited positive impact due to the limited shrub carrying capacity.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that a possible increase in precipitation will strongly facilitate shrub encroachment threatening savanna rangeland conditions and regional biodiversity. Furthermore, the negative effects found for positive auto-correlated rainfall support current ecological theory stating that periodically fluctuating environments can reduce population viability because species suffer disproportionately from poor environmental conditions.}, }
@article {pmid15604161, year = {2004}, author = {McMichael, A and Woodruff, R}, title = {Climate change and risk to health.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {329}, number = {7480}, pages = {1416-1417}, pmid = {15604161}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {*Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid15598621, year = {2005}, author = {Ingram, JC and Dawson, TP}, title = {Climate change impacts and vegetation response on the island of Madagascar.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {363}, number = {1826}, pages = {55-59}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2004.1476}, pmid = {15598621}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Madagascar ; *Plant Development ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The island of Madagascar has been labelled the world's number one conservation 'hot spot' because of increasing anthropogenic degradation of its natural habitats, which support a high level of species endemism. However, climatic phenomena may also have a significant impact upon the island's flora and fauna. An analysis of 18 years of monthly satellite images from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) have demonstrated that there is a dynamic pattern in Madagascar's vegetative cover both annually and seasonally throughout 1982-1999. Over interannual time-scales, we show that this vegetation response, calculated using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), has a strong negative correlation with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which can be attributable to drought events and associated wildfires. Global climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of the ENSO phenomenon, resulting in further decline of Madagascar's natural environment.}, }
@article {pmid15596969, year = {2004}, author = {Westphal, RG}, title = {Commentary on "The public health impact of global climate change".}, journal = {Family &amp; community health}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {230-231}, doi = {10.1097/00003727-200407000-00009}, pmid = {15596969}, issn = {0160-6379}, mesh = {Animals ; Developing Countries ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Vectors ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Poverty ; *Public Health Practice ; }, }
@article {pmid15596968, year = {2004}, author = {Diaz, JH}, title = {The public health impact of global climate change.}, journal = {Family &amp; community health}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {218-229}, doi = {10.1097/00003727-200407000-00008}, pmid = {15596968}, issn = {0160-6379}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Disasters ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Vectors ; *Environmental Health ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Politics ; Public Health/*trends ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Accurate predictions of the public health impact of global climatic changes are hampered by the absence of a dose-response relationship between climate change and human health and imprecise, often conflicting, meteorological models of climate change. Public health officials are obligated to educate policy makers and the public about the significant threats posed to population health and quality of life by the inexorable progression of global climate change. Only an enlightened public consciousness can muster the political will required to press for policy changes and to support new technologies to conserve energy and to protect the environment from manmade agents of destruction.}, }
@article {pmid15592880, year = {2005}, author = {Wolfe, DW and Schwartz, MD and Lakso, AN and Otsuki, Y and Pool, RM and Shaulis, NJ}, title = {Climate change and shifts in spring phenology of three horticultural woody perennials in northeastern USA.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {49}, number = {5}, pages = {303-309}, pmid = {15592880}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {*Climate ; Flowers ; History, 20th Century ; Malus/growth &amp; development ; New England ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development ; Regression Analysis ; Seasons ; Syringa/*growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Vitis/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {We evaluated spring phenology changes from 1965 to 2001 in northeastern USA utilizing a unique data set from 72 locations with genetically identical lilac plants (Syringa chinensis, clone "Red Rothomagensis"). We also utilized a previously validated lilac-honeysuckle "spring index" model to reconstruct a more complete record of first leaf date (FLD) and first flower date (FFD) for the region from historical weather data. In addition, we examined mid-bloom dates for apple (Malus domestica) and grape (Vitis vinifera) collected at several sites in the region during approximately the same time period. Almost all lilac sites with significant linear trends for FLD or FFD versus year had negative slopes (advanced development). Regression analysis of pooled data for the 72 sites indicated an advance of -0.092 day/year for FFD (P=0.003). The slope for FLD was also negative (-0.048 day/year), but not significant (P=0.234). The simulated data from the "spring index" model, which relies on local daily temperature records, indicated highly significant (P<0.001) negative slopes of -0.210 and -0.123 day/year for FLD and FFD, respectively. Data collected for apple and grape also indicated advance spring development, with slopes for mid-bloom date versus year of -0.20 day/year (P=0.01) and -0.146 (P=0.14), respectively. Collectively, these results indicate an advance in spring phenology ranging from 2 to 8 days for these woody perennials in northeastern USA for the period 1965 to 2001, qualitatively consistent with a warming trend, and consistent with phenology shifts reported for other mid- and high-latitude regions.}, }
@article {pmid15592397, year = {2004}, author = {Chiang, JC and Koutavas, A}, title = {Climate change: tropical flip-flop connections.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {432}, number = {7018}, pages = {684-685}, doi = {10.1038/432684a}, pmid = {15592397}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Atmosphere ; Brazil ; History, Ancient ; *Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Trees/physiology ; *Tropical Climate ; Water Movements ; }, }
@article {pmid15587549, year = {2004}, author = {Schwartz, SE}, title = {Uncertainty requirements in radiative forcing of climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {54}, number = {11}, pages = {1351-1359}, doi = {10.1080/10473289.2004.10471006}, pmid = {15587549}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Aerosols ; Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Environment ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Reference Values ; Reproducibility of Results ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; }, abstract = {The continuing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) makes it essential that climate sensitivity, the equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature that would result from a given radiative forcing, be quantified with known uncertainty. Present estimates are quite uncertain, 3 +/- 1.5 K for doubling of CO2. Model studies examining climate response to forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit large differences in sensitivities and imposed aerosol forcings that raise questions regarding claims of their having reproduced observed large-scale changes in surface temperature over the 20th century. Present uncertainty in forcing, caused largely by uncertainty in forcing by aerosols, precludes meaningful model evaluation by comparison with observed global temperature change or empirical determination of climate sensitivity. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing must be reduced at least three-fold for uncertainty in climate sensitivity to be meaningfully reduced and bounded.}, }
@article {pmid15586600, year = {2004}, author = {Keatinge, WR and Donaldson, GC}, title = {The impact of global warming on health and mortality.}, journal = {Southern medical journal}, volume = {97}, number = {11}, pages = {1093-1099}, doi = {10.1097/01.SMJ.0000144635.07975.66}, pmid = {15586600}, issn = {0038-4348}, mesh = {Aged ; Cold Temperature/*adverse effects ; Europe/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Heat Stress Disorders/etiology/prevention &amp; control/therapy ; Humans ; *Morbidity ; *Mortality ; Seasons ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Initial concern about the possible effects of global warming on infections has declined with the realization that the spread of tropical diseases is likely to be limited and controllable. However, the direct effects of heat already cause substantial numbers of deaths among vulnerable people in the summer. Action to prevent these deaths from rising is the most obvious medical challenge presented by a global rise in temperature. Strategies to prevent such deaths are in place to some extent, and they differ between the United States and Europe. Air conditioning has reduced them in the United States, and older technologies such as fans, shade, and buildings designed to keep cool on hot days have generally done so in Europe. Since the energy requirements of air conditioning accelerate global warming, a combination of the older methods, backed up by use of air conditioning when necessary, can provide the ideal solution. Despite the availability of these technologies, occasional record high temperatures still cause sharp rises in heat-related deaths as the climate warms. The most important single piece of advice at the time a heat wave strikes is that people having dangerous heat stress need immediate cooling, eg, by a cool bath. Such action at home can be more effective than transporting the patient to hospital. Meanwhile, it must not be forgotten that cold weather in winter causes-many more deaths than heat in summer, even in most subtropical regions, and measures to control cold-related deaths need to continue.}, }
@article {pmid15582047, year = {2004}, author = {McMichael, AJ and Butler, CD}, title = {Climate change, health, and development goals.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {364}, number = {9450}, pages = {2004-2006}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17529-6}, pmid = {15582047}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {*Economics ; *Environment ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Population Control ; }, }
@article {pmid15577890, year = {2004}, author = {Schär, C and Jendritzky, G}, title = {Climate change: hot news from summer 2003.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {432}, number = {7017}, pages = {559-560}, doi = {10.1038/432559a}, pmid = {15577890}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Europe/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Mortality ; *Seasons ; *Temperature ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid15576594, year = {2004}, author = {Oreskes, N}, title = {Beyond the ivory tower. The scientific consensus on climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {306}, number = {5702}, pages = {1686}, doi = {10.1126/science.1103618}, pmid = {15576594}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15576572, year = {2004}, author = {Jennerjahn, TC and Ittekkot, V and Arz, HW and Behling, H and Pätzold, J and Wefer, G}, title = {Asynchronous terrestrial and marine signals of climate change during Heinrich events.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {306}, number = {5705}, pages = {2236-2239}, doi = {10.1126/science.1102490}, pmid = {15576572}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Brazil ; Carbon Isotopes ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Ferns ; Geologic Sediments ; Nitrogen Isotopes ; *Plants ; Pollen ; Rain ; Seawater ; Spores ; Time ; *Trees ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Tropical regions have been reported to play a key role in climate dynamics. To date, however, there are uncertainties in the timing and the amplitude of the response of tropical ecosystems to millennial-scale climate change. We present evidence of an asynchrony between terrestrial and marine signals of climate change during Heinrich events preserved in marine sediment cores from the Brazilian continental margin. The inferred time lag of about 1000 to 2000 years is much larger than the ecological response to recent climate change and appears to be related to the nature of hydrological changes.}, }
@article {pmid15575273, year = {2004}, author = {Oyaro, N and Sellevåg, SR and Nielsen, CJ}, title = {Study of the OH and Cl-initiated oxidation, IR absorption cross-section, radiative forcing, and global warming potential of four C4-hydrofluoroethers.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {38}, number = {21}, pages = {5567-5576}, doi = {10.1021/es0497330}, pmid = {15575273}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Absorption ; Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Chlorine/*chemistry ; Ethers/chemistry ; Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry ; Greenhouse Effect ; Hydrocarbons, Fluorinated/chemistry ; Hydroxyl Radical/*chemistry ; *Infrared Rays ; Kinetics ; Oxidants/*chemistry ; Oxidation-Reduction ; Photolysis ; }, abstract = {Infrared absorption cross-sections and OH and Cl reaction rate coefficients for four C4-hydrofluoroethers (CF3)2CHOCH3, CF3CH2OCH2CF3, CF3CF2CH2OCH3, and CHF2CF2CH2OCH3 are reported. Relative rate measurements at 298 K and 1013 hPa of OH and Cl reaction rate coefficients give k(OH+(CF3)2CHOCH3) = (1.27+/-0.13) x 10(-13), k(OH+CF3CH2OCH2CF3) = (1.51+/-0.24) x 10(-13), k(OH+CF3CF2CH2OCH3) = (6.42+/-0.33) x 10(-13), k(OH+CHF2CF2CH2OCH3) = (8.7 +/-0.5) x 10(-13), k(Cl+(CF3)2CHOCH3) = (8.4+/-1.3) x 10(-12), k(Cl+CF3CH2OCH2CF3) = (6.5+/-1.7) x 10(-13), k(Cl+CF3CF2CH2OCH3) = (4.0+/-0.8) x 10(-11), and k(Cl+CHF2CF2CH2OCH3) = (2.65+/-0.17) x 10(-11) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1). The primary products of the OH and Cl reactions with the fluorinated ethers have been identified as esters, and OH and Cl reaction rate coefficients for one of these, CF3CH2OCHO, are reported: k(OH+CF3CH2OCHO) = (7.7+/-0.9) x 10(-14) and kCl+CF3CH2OCHO) = (6.3+/-1.9) x 10(-14) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1) The rate coefficient for the Cl-atom reaction with CHF2CH2F is derived as k(Cl+CHF2CH2F) = (3.0+/-0.9) x 10(-14) cm3 molecule(-1) s(-1) at 298 K. The error limits include 3sigma from the statistical data analyses as well as the errors in the rate coefficients of the reference compounds employed. The tropospheric lifetimes of the hydrofluoroethers are estimated to be short tauOH((CF3)2CHOCH3) approximately 100 days, tauOH(CF3CH2OCH2CF3) approximately 80 days, tauOH(CF3CF2CH2OCH3) approximately 20 days, and tauOH(CHF2CF2CH2OCH3) approximately 14 days, and their global warming potentials are small compared to CFC-11.}, }
@article {pmid15575261, year = {2004}, author = {Pelley, J}, title = {Positive feedbacks shaping climate-change forecasts.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {38}, number = {21}, pages = {411A-412A}, doi = {10.1021/es040662e}, pmid = {15575261}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere ; Carbon/chemistry ; *Climate ; *Feedback ; Fires ; *Forecasting ; Fresh Water/*chemistry ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Predictive Value of Tests ; }, }
@article {pmid15573576, year = {2004}, author = {}, title = {Arctic climate change and its impacts.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {33}, number = {7}, pages = {1 p following 479}, pmid = {15573576}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Cold Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Humans ; Ice Cover ; Plants ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, }
@article {pmid15570468, year = {2004}, author = {Huntington, TG}, title = {Climate change, growing season length, and transpiration: plant response could alter hydrologic regime.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {651-653}, doi = {10.1055/s-2004-830353}, pmid = {15570468}, issn = {1435-8603}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; *Plant Transpiration ; *Seasons ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid15563303, year = {2004}, author = {Stedman, RC and Davidson, DJ and Wellstead, A}, title = {Risk and climate change: perceptions of key policy actors in Canada.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {24}, number = {5}, pages = {1395-1406}, doi = {10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00534.x}, pmid = {15563303}, issn = {0272-4332}, abstract = {This article examines factors that predict perceptions of risk associated with global climate change. The research focuses on the perceptions of those associated with climate change policy making in the prairie region of Canada. The data are from an online survey (n=851) of those policy actors. The analysis integrates several dominant approaches to the study of risk perception: psychometric approaches that examine the effects of cognitive structure; demographic assessments that examine, for example, differences in perception based on gender or family status; and political approaches that suggest that one's position in the policy process may affect his or her perceived risk. Attitudes toward climate change are to a degree predicted by all of these factors, but only when indirect effects are observed. Sociodemographic characteristics have little direct effect on perceived risk, but do affect general beliefs that affect risk perceptions. Perceived risk is related more strongly to these general beliefs or world views than to more specific beliefs about the effects of climate change on weather patterns. Position within the policy process also contributes to our understanding of perceptions, with industry and governmental actors demonstrating similar attitudes, which contrast with environmental groups and university researchers.}, }
@article {pmid15558326, year = {2005}, author = {Henry, HA and Cleland, EE and Field, CB and Vitousek, PM}, title = {Interactive effects of elevated CO2, N deposition and climate change on plant litter quality in a California annual grassland.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {142}, number = {3}, pages = {465-473}, pmid = {15558326}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Biomass ; California ; Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Lignin/metabolism ; Nitrogen/*metabolism ; Poaceae/*metabolism ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Although global changes can alter ecosystem nutrient dynamics indirectly as a result of their effects on plant litter quality, the interactive effects of global changes on plant litter remain largely unexplored in natural communities. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2, N deposition, warming and increased precipitation on the composition of organic compounds in plant litter in a fully-factorial experiment conducted in a California annual grassland. While lignin increased within functional groups under elevated CO2, this effect was attenuated by warming in grasses and by water additions in forbs. CO2-induced increases in lignin within functional groups also were counteracted by an increase in the relative biomass of forbs, which contained less lignin than grasses. Consequently, there was no net change in the overall lignin content of senesced tissue at the plot level under elevated CO2. Nitrate additions increased N in both grass and forb litter, although this effect was attenuated by water additions. Relative to changes in N within functional groups, changes in functional group dominance had a minor effect on overall litter N at the plot level. Nitrate additions had the strongest effect on decomposition, increasing lignin losses from Avena litter and interacting with water additions to increase decomposition of litter of other grasses. Increases in lignin that resulted from elevated CO2 had no effect on decomposition but elevated CO2 increased N losses from Avena litter. Overall, the interactions among elements of global change were as important as single-factor effects in influencing plant litter chemistry. However, with the exception of variation in N, litter quality had little influence on decomposition over the short term.}, }
@article {pmid15545606, year = {2004}, author = {O'Neill, BC and Oppenheimer, M}, title = {Climate change impacts are sensitive to the concentration stabilization path.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {101}, number = {47}, pages = {16411-16416}, pmid = {15545606}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {Analysis of policies to achieve the long-term objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse gases at levels that avoid "dangerous" climate changes, must discriminate among the infinite number of emission and concentration trajectories that yield the same final concentration. Considerable attention has been devoted to path-dependent mitigation costs, generally for CO2 alone, but not to the differential climate change impacts implied by alternative trajectories. Here, we derive pathways leading to stabilization of equivalent CO2 concentration (including radiative forcing effects of all significant trace gases and aerosols) with a range of transient behavior before stabilization, including temporary overshoot of the final value. We compare resulting climate changes to the sensitivity of representative geophysical and ecological systems. Based on the limited available information, some physical and ecological systems appear to be quite sensitive to the details of the approach to stabilization. The likelihood of occurrence of impacts that might be considered dangerous increases under trajectories that delay emissions reduction or overshoot the final concentration.}, }
@article {pmid15540152, year = {2004}, author = {Porporato, A and Daly, E and Rodriguez-Iturbe, I}, title = {Soil water balance and ecosystem response to climate change.}, journal = {The American naturalist}, volume = {164}, number = {5}, pages = {625-632}, doi = {10.1086/424970}, pmid = {15540152}, issn = {1537-5323}, support = {DE-FC02-03ER63613/DE/NIDCR NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Carbon/metabolism ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Plants/*metabolism ; Rain ; *Soil ; Stochastic Processes ; *Water ; }, abstract = {Some essential features of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle and ecosystem response are singled out by confronting empirical observations of the soil water balance of different ecosystems with the results of a stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics. The simplified framework analytically describes how hydroclimatic variability (especially the frequency and amount of rainfall events) concurs with soil and plant characteristics in producing the soil moisture dynamics that in turn impact vegetation conditions. The results of the model extend and help interpret the classical curve of Budyko, which relates evapotranspiration losses to a dryness index, describing the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep infiltration. They also provide a general classification of soil water balance of the world ecosystems based on two governing dimensionless groups summarizing the climate, soil, and vegetation conditions. The subsequent analysis of the links among soil moisture dynamics, plant water stress, and carbon assimilation offers an interpretation of recent manipulative field experiments on ecosystem response to shifts in the rainfall regime, showing that plant carbon assimilation crucially depends not only on the total rainfall during the growing season but also on the intermittency and magnitude of the rainfall events.}, }
@article {pmid15525985, year = {2004}, author = {Pierce, JL and Meyer, GA and Jull, AJ}, title = {Fire-induced erosion and millennial-scale climate change in northern ponderosa pine forests.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {432}, number = {7013}, pages = {87-90}, doi = {10.1038/nature03058}, pmid = {15525985}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Biomass ; Calibration ; Charcoal/analysis ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Fires ; Geologic Sediments/analysis ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; Northwestern United States ; Pinus/*physiology ; Probability ; Southwestern United States ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Western US ponderosa pine forests have recently suffered extensive stand-replacing fires followed by hillslope erosion and sedimentation. These fires are usually attributed to increased stand density as a result of fire suppression, grazing and other land use, and are often considered uncharacteristic or unprecedented. Tree-ring records from the past 500 years indicate that before Euro-American settlement, frequent, low-severity fires maintained open stands. However, the pre-settlement period between about ad 1500 and ad 1900 was also generally colder than present, raising the possibility that rapid twentieth-century warming promoted recent catastrophic fires. Here we date fire-related sediment deposits in alluvial fans in central Idaho to reconstruct Holocene fire history in xeric ponderosa pine forests and examine links to climate. We find that colder periods experienced frequent low-severity fires, probably fuelled by increased understory growth. Warmer periods experienced severe droughts, stand-replacing fires and large debris-flow events that comprise a large component of long-term erosion and coincide with similar events in sub-alpine forests of Yellowstone National Park. Our results suggest that given the powerful influence of climate, restoration of processes typical of pre-settlement times may be difficult in a warmer future that promotes severe fires.}, }
@article {pmid15525945, year = {2004}, author = {Marris, E}, title = {Climate change clouds commercial licence to krill.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {432}, number = {7013}, pages = {4}, doi = {10.1038/432004a}, pmid = {15525945}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Euphausiacea/*physiology ; Fisheries/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice Cover ; Licensure/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Density ; }, }
@article {pmid15521148, year = {2004}, author = {Alley, RB}, title = {Abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {291}, number = {5}, pages = {62-69}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican1104-62}, pmid = {15521148}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid15514142, year = {2004}, author = {Claussen, E}, title = {Climate policy. An effective approach to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {306}, number = {5697}, pages = {816}, doi = {10.1126/science.1105702}, pmid = {15514142}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15500281, year = {2004}, author = {Corvalan, CF and Patz, JA}, title = {Global warming kills trees, and people.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {82}, number = {7}, pages = {481}, pmid = {15500281}, issn = {0042-9686}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Mortality ; Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid15498988, year = {2004}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. A few good climate shifters.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {306}, number = {5696}, pages = {599-601}, doi = {10.1126/science.306.5696.599}, pmid = {15498988}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15493600, year = {2004}, author = {Thompson, M}, title = {Health implications of climate change.}, journal = {The Oregon nurse}, volume = {69}, number = {3}, pages = {13}, pmid = {15493600}, issn = {0030-4751}, mesh = {Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Animals ; *Climate ; *Environmental Health/standards/trends ; Humans ; Insect Vectors ; Nurse's Role ; Oregon ; }, }
@article {pmid15479264, year = {2004}, author = {Beggs, PJ}, title = {Impacts of climate change on aeroallergens: past and future.}, journal = {Clinical and experimental allergy : journal of the British Society for Allergy and Clinical Immunology}, volume = {34}, number = {10}, pages = {1507-1513}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2222.2004.02061.x}, pmid = {15479264}, issn = {0954-7894}, mesh = {Air ; Allergens/*immunology ; Carbon Dioxide/immunology ; *Climate ; Fungi/immunology ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/immunology ; Plant Development ; Pollen/*immunology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Human activities are resulting in increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, and changes in global climate. These, in turn, are likely to have had, and will continue to have, impacts on human health. While such impacts have received increasing attention in recent years, the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and related allergic diseases have been somewhat neglected. Despite this, a number of studies have revealed potential impacts of climate change on aeroallergens that may have enormous clinical and public health significance. The purpose of this review is to synthesize this work and to outline a number of research challenges in this area. There is now considerable evidence to suggest that climate change will have, and has already had, impacts on aeroallergens. These include impacts on pollen amount, pollen allergenicity, pollen season, plant and pollen distribution, and other plant attributes. There is also some evidence of impacts on other aeroallergens, such as mould spores. There are many research challenges along the road to a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and allergic diseases such as asthma and hayfever. It is important that public health authorities and allergy practitioners be aware of these changes in the environment, and that research scientists embrace the challenges that face further work in this area.}, }
@article {pmid15472045, year = {2004}, author = {Allakhverdov, A and Pokrovsky, V}, title = {Climate change. Russia, reluctantly, backs Kyoto.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {306}, number = {5694}, pages = {209}, doi = {10.1126/science.306.5694.209a}, pmid = {15472045}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15459370, year = {2004}, author = {Goklany, IM}, title = {Climate change and malaria.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {306}, number = {5693}, pages = {55-7; author reply 55-7}, doi = {10.1126/science.306.5693.55}, pmid = {15459370}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Developing Countries ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/mortality/prevention &amp; control ; Poverty ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid15459347, year = {2004}, author = {Osborn, TJ and Briffa, KR}, title = {Climate. The real color of climate change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {306}, number = {5696}, pages = {621-622}, doi = {10.1126/science.1104416}, pmid = {15459347}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15457786, year = {2004}, author = {Sophocleous, M}, title = {Climate change: why should water professionals care?.}, journal = {Ground water}, volume = {42}, number = {5}, pages = {637}, doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2004.tb02715.x}, pmid = {15457786}, issn = {0017-467X}, mesh = {*Conservation of Natural Resources ; Decision Making ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid15453401, year = {2004}, author = {Ogle, SM and Conant, RT and Paustian, K}, title = {Deriving grassland management factors for a carbon accounting method developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {474-484}, pmid = {15453401}, issn = {0364-152X}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Poaceae ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {Grassland management affects soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and can be used to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, for a country to assess emission reductions due to grassland management, there must be an inventory method for estimating the change in SOC storage. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed a simple carbon accounting approach for this purpose, and here we derive new grassland management factors that represent the effect of changing management on carbon storage for this method. Our literature search identified 49 studies dealing with effects of management practices that either degraded or improved conditions relative to nominally managed grasslands. On average, degradation reduced SOC storage to 95% +/- 0.06 and 97% +/- 0.05 of carbon stored under nominal conditions in temperate and tropical regions, respectively. In contrast, improving grasslands with a single management activity enhanced SOC storage by 14% +/- 0.06 and 17% +/- 0.05 in temperate and tropical regions, respectively, and with an additional improvement(s), storage increased by another 11% +/- 0.04. We applied the newly derived factor coefficients to analyze C sequestration potential for managed grasslands in the U.S., and found that over a 20-year period changing management could sequester from 5 to 142 Tg C yr(-1) or 0.1 to 0.9 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), depending on the level of change. This analysis provides revised factor coefficients for the IPCC method that can be used to estimate impacts of management; it also provides a methodological framework for countries to derive factor coefficients specific to conditions in their region.}, }
@article {pmid15448253, year = {2004}, author = {Schwartz, P and Randall, D}, title = {Future global warming scenarios, take 2.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {305}, number = {5692}, pages = {1911-1912}, doi = {10.1126/science.305.5692.1911}, pmid = {15448253}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15448240, year = {2004}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. A bit of icy Antarctica is sliding toward the sea.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {305}, number = {5692}, pages = {1897}, doi = {10.1126/science.305.5692.1897}, pmid = {15448240}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15387062, year = {2004}, author = {Ziaja, W}, title = {Spitsbergen landscape under 20th century climate change: Sørkapp Land.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {295-299}, doi = {10.1639/0044-7447(2004)033[0295:slutcc]2.0.co;2}, pmid = {15387062}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Environmental Monitoring ; Geological Phenomena ; *Geology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Ice ; }, abstract = {A reaction of the European Arctic landscape to a climate change on the scale of a typical middle-sized region is outlined. A wide scope of the methods was used, first of all field mapping and observations. Glaciers are important in the Sørkapp Land landscape because they cover the majority of its territory and undergo quick recessions as a result of the 20th century warming. Glacial recession influence intensively: relief with Quaternary deposits, waters, animals, vegetation and soils. The most important landscape changes in the 20th century are: uplift of the equilibrium line altitude on glaciers by 100-200 m; large glacial recession in both surface and volume; significant decrease of the land area due to recession of tidewater glaciers; lengthening of the coastline, and especially of glacial cliffs; development of the land water network; start of the plant succession in areas abandoned by glaciers. No isostatic uplift has taken place in Sørkapp Land since the Little Ice Age.}, }
@article {pmid15387061, year = {2004}, author = {Mazhitova, G and Karstkarel, N and Oberman, N and Romanovsky, V and Kuhry, P}, title = {Permafrost and infrastructure in the usa Basin (Northeast European Russia): possible impacts of global warming.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {289-294}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-33.6.289}, pmid = {15387061}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Geographic Information Systems ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Ice ; Photography ; Russia ; }, abstract = {The relationship between permafrost conditions and the distribution of infrastructure in the Usa Basin, Northeast European Russia, is analyzed. About 75% of the Basin is underlain by permafrost terrain with various degrees of continuity (isolated patches to continuous permafrost). The region has a high level of urban and industrial development (e.g., towns, coal mines, hydrocarbon extraction sites, railway, pipelines). GIS-analyses indicate that about 60% of all infrastructure is located in the 'high risk' permafrost area, here defined as the zones of isolated to discontinuous permafrost (3-90% coverage) with 'warm' ground temperatures (0 to -2 degrees C). Ground monitoring, aerial photo interpretation, and permafrost modeling suggest a differential response to future global warming. Most of the permafrost-affected terrain will likely start to thaw within a few decades to a century. This forecast poses serious challenges to permafrost engineering and calls for long-term investments in adequate infrastructure that will pay back overtime.}, }
@article {pmid15378344, year = {2005}, author = {Svensson, CJ and Jenkins, SR and Hawkins, SJ and Aberg, P}, title = {Population resistance to climate change: modelling the effects of low recruitment in open populations.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {142}, number = {1}, pages = {117-126}, pmid = {15378344}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Ecology ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction/physiology ; Thoracica/*physiology ; Time Factors ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Isolated populations or those at the edge of their distribution are usually more sensitive to changes in the environment, such as climate change. For the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides (L.), one possible effect of climate change is that unpredictable spring weather could lead to the mismatching of larval release with spring phytoplankton bloom, hence reducing the recruitment. In this paper, model simulations of a variable open population with space limited recruitment were used to investigate the effects of low and zero recruitment on population abundance in S. balanoides. Data for model parameters was taken from an isolated population in the Isle of Man, British Isles. Model simulations with observed frequencies of years with low recruitment showed only small changes in population dynamics. Increased frequencies of low recruitment had large effects on the variation in population growth rate and free space and on population structure. Furthermore, populations with intermediate to high frequencies of low recruitment appeared more sensitive to additional changes in recruitment. Exchanging low recruitment with zero recruitment severely increased the risk of local extinctions. Simulations with consecutive years of low recruitment showed a substantial increase in free space and an increase in the time taken to recover to normal densities. In conclusion, model simulations indicate that variable populations can be well buffered to changes in the demography caused by introduced environmental noise, but also, that intermediate to high frequencies of disturbance can lead to a swift change in population dynamics, which in turn, may affect the dynamics of whole communities.}, }
@article {pmid15375246, year = {2004}, author = {Balmford, A and Manica, A and Airey, L and Birkin, L and Oliver, A and Schleicher, J}, title = {Hollywood, climate change, and the public.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {305}, number = {5691}, pages = {1713}, doi = {10.1126/science.305.5691.1713b}, pmid = {15375246}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15371208, year = {2004}, author = {Charron, D and Thomas, M and Waltner-Toews, D and Aramini, J and Edge, T and Kent, R and Maarouf, A and Wilson, J}, title = {Vulnerability of waterborne diseases to climate change in Canada: a review.}, journal = {Journal of toxicology and environmental health. Part A}, volume = {67}, number = {20-22}, pages = {1667-1677}, doi = {10.1080/15287390490492313}, pmid = {15371208}, issn = {1528-7394}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada/epidemiology ; *Climate ; Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; Cryptosporidiosis/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Cryptosporidium/pathogenicity ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Escherichia coli Infections/epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Escherichia coli O157/pathogenicity ; Fresh Water/microbiology/parasitology ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Purification/standards ; }, abstract = {This project addresses two important issues relevant to the health of Canadians: the risk of waterborne illness and the health impacts of global climate change. The Canadian health burden from waterborne illness is unknown, although it presumably accounts for a significant proportion of enteric illness. Recently, large outbreaks with severe consequences produced by E. coli O157:H7 and Cryptosporidium have alarmed Canadians and brought demands for political action. A concurrent need to understand the health impacts of global climate changes and to develop strategies to prevent or prepare for these has also been recognized. There is mounting evidence that weather is often a factor in triggering waterborne disease outbreaks. A recent study of precipitation and waterborne illness in the United States found that more than half the waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States during the last half century followed a period of extreme rainfall. Projections of international global climate change scenarios suggest that, under conditions of global warming most of Canada may expect longer summers, milder winters, increased summer drought, and more extreme precipitation. Excess precipitation, floods, high temperatures, and drought could affect the risk of waterborne illness in Canada. The existing scientific information regarding most weather-related adverse health impacts and on the impacts of global climate change on health in Canada is insufficient for informed decision making. The results of this project address this need through the investigation of the complex systemic interrelationships between disease incidence, weather parameters, and water quality and quantity, and by projecting the potential impact of global climate change on those relationships.}, }
@article {pmid15361593, year = {2004}, author = {Stokstad, E}, title = {Climate change. Changes in planktonic food web hint at major disruptions in Atlantic.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {305}, number = {5690}, pages = {1548-1549}, doi = {10.1126/science.305.5690.1548a}, pmid = {15361593}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Fisheries ; *Food Chain ; Phytoplankton/*growth &amp; development ; Population Dynamics ; Seawater ; Temperature ; Zooplankton/*growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid15356594, year = {2004}, author = {Giles, J}, title = {Ocean fix for climate change finds tentative support.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {431}, number = {7005}, pages = {115}, doi = {10.1038/431115b}, pmid = {15356594}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Amphipoda/drug effects ; Animals ; Avoidance Learning/physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Marine Biology ; Oceans and Seas ; *Research ; Seawater/*chemistry ; }, }
@article {pmid15347522, year = {2004}, author = {Matthee, CA and Tilbury, CR and Townsend, T}, title = {A phylogenetic review of the African leaf chameleons: genus Rhampholeon (Chamaeleonidae): the role of vicariance and climate change in speciation.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {271}, number = {1551}, pages = {1967-1975}, pmid = {15347522}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Africa ; Animals ; Base Sequence ; Bayes Theorem ; *Climate ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Evolution, Molecular ; Genes, RAG-1/genetics ; Geography ; Lizards/*classification/*genetics ; Models, Genetic ; Molecular Sequence Data ; *Phylogeny ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The phylogenetic associations among 13 currently recognized African leaf chameleon species were investigated by making use of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data (44 taxa and 4145 characters). The gene tree indicates two divergent clades within Rhampholeon; this finding is congruent with previous morphological suggestions. The first clade (I) comprises three taxa (R. kerstenii, R. brevicaudatus and R. brachyurus) and is widely distributed in lowland forest and or non-forest biomes. The second clade (II) comprises the remaining Rhampholeon species and can be subdivided into three subclades. By contrast, most taxa belonging to clade II are confined to relict montane forest biotopes. Based on geographical, morphological and molecular evidence, it is suggested that the taxonomy of Rhampholeon be revised to include two genera (Rieppeleon and Rhampholeon) and three subgenera (Rhampholeon, Bicuspis and Rhinodigitum). There is a close correlation between geographical distribution and phylogenetic relatedness among Rhampholeon taxa, indicating that vicariance and climate change were possibly the most influential factors driving speciation in the group. A relaxed Bayesian clock suggests that speciation times coincided both with the northern movement of Africa, which caused the constriction of the pan African forest, and to rifting in east Africa ca. 20 Myr ago. Subsequent speciation among taxa was probably the result of gradual desiccation of forests between 20 and 5 Myr ago.}, }
@article {pmid15343303, year = {2004}, author = {Schiermeier, Q and MacWilliams, B}, title = {Climate change: crunch time for Kyoto.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {431}, number = {7004}, pages = {12-13}, doi = {10.1038/431012a}, pmid = {15343303}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid15343293, year = {2004}, author = {}, title = {Distributing the costs of climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {431}, number = {7004}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1038/431001b}, pmid = {15343293}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Cost Sharing ; Disasters/economics ; Fossil Fuels/economics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid15341149, year = {2004}, author = {Etterson, JR}, title = {Evolutionary potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata in relation to climate change. II. Genetic architecture of three populations reciprocally planted along an environmental gradient in the great plains.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {58}, number = {7}, pages = {1459-1471}, doi = {10.1111/j.0014-3820.2004.tb01727.x}, pmid = {15341149}, issn = {0014-3820}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Analysis of Variance ; *Biological Evolution ; Chamaecrista/anatomy &amp; histology/*genetics/physiology ; *Climate ; Crosses, Genetic ; *Environment ; Fertility/physiology ; *Genetic Variation ; Geography ; Likelihood Functions ; Midwestern United States ; Population Dynamics ; Quantitative Trait, Heritable ; Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Climate change will test the evolutionary potential of populations. Information regarding the genetic architecture within and among populations is essential for prediction of evolutionary outcomes. However, little is known about the distribution of genetic variation for relevant traits in natural populations or alteration of genetic architecture in a changing environment. In this study, pedigreed families from three populations of the annual prairie legume Chamaecrista fasciculata were reciprocally transplanted in three environments across a broad latitudinal range in the Great Plains. The underlying premise of this work is that northern populations will in the future experience climates similar to current-day climates further south. Estimates of narrow-sense heritability ranged from 0.053 to 0.481, suggesting the potential for evolutionary change is possible for most traits. In general, the northern population harbored less genetic variation and had lower heritability for traits than the southern population. This population also experienced large reductions in fitness, as measured by estimated lifetime fecundity, when raised in either the intermediate or the southern climate, whereas the difference between the intermediate and southern population was less extreme. For fecundity, the pattern of cross-environment additive genetic correlations was antagonistic to evolutionary change in four of six cases when native and nonnative sites were compared. Six additional antagonistic positive correlations were found for the rate of phenological development and leaf thickness. Overall, the data suggest that if climate changes as predicted, the northern population will face a severe evolutionary challenge in the future because of low heritabilities, cross-environment genetic correlations antagonistic to selection, and demographic instability due to lower seed production in a hotter and drier climate.}, }
@article {pmid15341148, year = {2004}, author = {Etterson, JR}, title = {Evolutionary potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata in relation to climate change. I. Clinal patterns of selection along an environmental gradient in the great plains.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {58}, number = {7}, pages = {1446-1458}, doi = {10.1111/j.0014-3820.2004.tb01726.x}, pmid = {15341148}, issn = {0014-3820}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological/*genetics ; Analysis of Variance ; *Biological Evolution ; Chamaecrista/anatomy &amp; histology/*genetics/physiology ; *Climate ; Crosses, Genetic ; *Environment ; Geography ; Least-Squares Analysis ; Midwestern United States ; Population Dynamics ; *Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {Climate change will alter natural selection on native plant populations. Little information is available to predict how selection will change in the future and how populations will respond. Insight can be obtained by comparing selection regimes in current environments to selection regimes in environments similar to those predicted for the future. To mimic predicted temporal change in climate, three natural populations of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata were sampled from a climate gradient in the Great Plains and progeny of formal crosses were reciprocally planted back into common gardens across this climate gradient. In each garden, native populations produced significantly more seed than the other populations, providing strong evidence of local adaptation. Phenotypic selection analysis conducted by site showed that plants with slower reproductive development, more leaves, and thicker leaves were favored in the most southern garden. Evidence of clinal variation in selection regimes was also found; selection coefficients were ordered according to the latitude of the common gardens. The adaptive value of native traits was indicated by selection toward the mean of local populations. Repeated clinal patterns in linear and nonlinear selection coefficients among populations and within and between sites were found. To the extent that temporal change in climate into the future will parallel the differences in selection across this spatial gradient, this study suggests that selection regimes will be displaced northward and different trait values will be favored in natural populations.}, }
@article {pmid15339732, year = {2004}, author = {Riikonen, J and Lindsberg, MM and Holopainen, T and Oksanen, E and Lappi, J and Peltonen, P and Vapaavuori, E}, title = {Silver birch and climate change: variable growth and carbon allocation responses to elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide and ozone.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {24}, number = {11}, pages = {1227-1237}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/24.11.1227}, pmid = {15339732}, issn = {0829-318X}, mesh = {Betula/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ozone ; Plant Leaves/physiology ; Plant Stems/growth &amp; development ; Trees/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {We studied the effects of elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide ([CO2]) and ozone ([O3]) on growth, biomass allocation and leaf area of field-grown O3-tolerant (Clone 4) and O3-sensitive clones (Clone 80) of European silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) trees during 1999-2001. Seven-year-old trees of Clones 4 and 80 growing outside in open-top chambers were exposed for 3 years to the following treatments: outside control (OC); chamber control (CC); 2 x ambient [CO2] (EC); 2 x ambient [O3] (EO); and 2 x ambient [CO2] + 2 x ambient [O3] (EC+EO). When the results for the two clones were analyzed together, elevated [CO2] increased tree growth and biomass, but had no effect on biomass allocation. Total leaf area increased and leaf abscission was delayed in response to elevated [CO2]. Elevated [O3] decreased dry mass of roots and branches and mean leaf size and induced earlier leaf abscission in the autumn; otherwise, the effects of elevated [O3] were small across the clones. However, there were significant interactions between elevated [CO2] and elevated [O3]. When results for the clones were analyzed separately, stem diameter, volume growth and total biomass of Clone 80 were increased by elevated [CO2] and the stimulatory effects of elevated [CO2] on stem volume growth and total leaf area increased during the 3-year study. Clone 80 was unaffected by elevated [O3]. In Clone 4, elevated [O3] decreased root and branch biomass by 38 and 29%, respectively, whereas this clone showed few responses to elevated [CO2]. Elevated [CO2] significantly increased total leaf area in Clone 80 only, which may partly explain the smaller growth responses to elevated [CO2] of Clone 4 compared with Clone 80. Although we observed responses to elevated [O3], the responses to the EC+EO and EC treatments were similar, indicating that the trees only responded to elevated [O3] under ambient [CO2] conditions, perhaps reflecting a greater quantity of carbohydrates available for detoxification and repair in elevated [CO2].}, }
@article {pmid15329695, year = {2004}, author = {Alston, TA}, title = {Don't have a cow! Fight global warming with CFC.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {430}, number = {7003}, pages = {965}, doi = {10.1038/430965c}, pmid = {15329695}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Cattle/*metabolism/microbiology ; Chlorofluorocarbons/chemistry/*pharmacology ; Chlorofluorocarbons, Methane/chemistry/*pharmacology ; Cobalt/chemistry/metabolism ; Gastric Mucosa/metabolism ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/*metabolism ; Stomach/drug effects/microbiology ; Vitamin B 12/chemistry/metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid15318219, year = {2004}, author = {Edwards, M and Richardson, AJ}, title = {Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {430}, number = {7002}, pages = {881-884}, doi = {10.1038/nature02808}, pmid = {15318219}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Diatoms/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Food Chain ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Marine Biology ; Plankton/physiology ; *Seasons ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Phenology, the study of annually recurring life cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering, can provide particularly sensitive indicators of climate change. Changes in phenology may be important to ecosystem function because the level of response to climate change may vary across functional groups and multiple trophic levels. The decoupling of phenological relationships will have important ramifications for trophic interactions, altering food-web structures and leading to eventual ecosystem-level changes. Temperate marine environments may be particularly vulnerable to these changes because the recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependent on synchronization with pulsed planktonic production. Using long-term data of 66 plankton taxa during the period from 1958 to 2002, we investigated whether climate warming signals are emergent across all trophic levels and functional groups within an ecological community. Here we show that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.}, }
@article {pmid15314227, year = {2004}, author = {Hayhoe, K and Cayan, D and Field, CB and Frumhoff, PC and Maurer, EP and Miller, NL and Moser, SC and Schneider, SH and Cahill, KN and Cleland, EE and Dale, L and Drapek, R and Hanemann, RM and Kalkstein, LS and Lenihan, J and Lunch, CK and Neilson, RP and Sheridan, SC and Verville, JH}, title = {Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {101}, number = {34}, pages = {12422-12427}, pmid = {15314227}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; California ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.}, }
@article {pmid15310873, year = {2004}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Three degrees of consensus.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {305}, number = {5686}, pages = {932-934}, doi = {10.1126/science.305.5686.932}, pmid = {15310873}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15306806, year = {2004}, author = {Murphy, JM and Sexton, DM and Barnett, DN and Jones, GS and Webb, MJ and Collins, M and Stainforth, DA}, title = {Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {430}, number = {7001}, pages = {768-772}, doi = {10.1038/nature02771}, pmid = {15306806}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Comprehensive global climate models are the only tools that account for the complex set of processes which will determine future climate change at both a global and regional level. Planners are typically faced with a wide range of predicted changes from different models of unknown relative quality, owing to large but unquantified uncertainties in the modelling process. Here we report a systematic attempt to determine the range of climate changes consistent with these uncertainties, based on a 53-member ensemble of model versions constructed by varying model parameters. We estimate a probability density function for the sensitivity of climate to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and obtain a 5-95 per cent probability range of 2.4-5.4 degrees C. Our probability density function is constrained by objective estimates of the relative reliability of different model versions, the choice of model parameters that are varied and their uncertainty ranges, specified on the basis of expert advice. Our ensemble produces a range of regional changes much wider than indicated by traditional methods based on scaling the response patterns of an individual simulation.}, }
@article {pmid15306799, year = {2004}, author = {Baker, AC and Starger, CJ and McClanahan, TR and Glynn, PW}, title = {Coral reefs: corals' adaptive response to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {430}, number = {7001}, pages = {741}, doi = {10.1038/430741a}, pmid = {15306799}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Acclimatization/*physiology ; Animals ; Anthozoa/*physiology ; Biodiversity ; Eukaryota/isolation &amp; purification/*physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; Seawater ; *Symbiosis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The long-term response of coral reefs to climate change depends on the ability of reef-building coral symbioses to adapt or acclimatize to warmer temperatures, but there has been no direct evidence that such a response can occur. Here we show that corals containing unusual algal symbionts that are thermally tolerant and commonly associated with high-temperature environments are much more abundant on reefs that have been severely affected by recent climate change. This adaptive shift in symbiont communities indicates that these devastated reefs could be more resistant to future thermal stress, resulting in significantly longer extinction times for surviving corals than had been previously assumed.}, }
@article {pmid15306796, year = {2004}, author = {Stocker, TF}, title = {Climate change: models change their tune.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {430}, number = {7001}, pages = {737-738}, doi = {10.1038/430737a}, pmid = {15306796}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid15306284, year = {2004}, author = {Both, C and Artemyev, AV and Blaauw, B and Cowie, RJ and Dekhuijzen, AJ and Eeva, T and Enemar, A and Gustafsson, L and Ivankina, EV and Järvinen, A and Metcalfe, NB and Nyholm, NE and Potti, J and Ravussin, PA and Sanz, JJ and Silverin, B and Slater, FM and Sokolov, LV and Török, J and Winkel, W and Wright, J and Zang, H and Visser, ME}, title = {Large-scale geographical variation confirms that climate change causes birds to lay earlier.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {271}, number = {1549}, pages = {1657-1662}, pmid = {15306284}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Europe ; Geography ; Linear Models ; *Periodicity ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Seasons ; Songbirds/*physiology ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Advances in the phenology of organisms are often attributed to climate change, but alternatively, may reflect a publication bias towards advances and may be caused by environmental factors unrelated to climate change. Both factors are investigated using the breeding dates of 25 long-term studied populations of Ficedula flycatchers across Europe. Trends in spring temperature varied markedly between study sites, and across populations the advancement of laying date was stronger in areas where the spring temperatures increased more, giving support to the theory that climate change causally affects breeding date advancement.}, }
@article {pmid15304655, year = {2004}, author = {Bonnefille, R and Potts, R and Chalié, F and Jolly, D and Peyron, O}, title = {High-resolution vegetation and climate change associated with Pliocene Australopithecus afarensis.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {101}, number = {33}, pages = {12125-12129}, pmid = {15304655}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; Biological Evolution ; Climate ; *Environment ; Ethiopia ; Fossils ; *Hominidae ; Humans ; Plants ; Pollen ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Plio-Pleistocene global climate change is believed to have had an important influence on local habitats and early human evolution in Africa. Responses of hominin lineages to climate change have been difficult to test, however, because this procedure requires well documented evidence for connections between global climate and hominin environment. Through high-resolution pollen data from Hadar, Ethiopia, we show that the hominin Australopithecus afarensis accommodated to substantial environmental variability between 3.4 and 2.9 million years ago. A large biome shift, up to 5 degrees C cooling, and a 200- to 300-mm/yr rainfall increase occurred just before 3.3 million years ago, which is consistent with a global marine delta(18)O isotopic shift.}, }
@article {pmid15288114, year = {2004}, author = {Parola, P and Raoult, D}, title = {[Climate change and bacterial disease].}, journal = {Archives de pediatrie : organe officiel de la Societe francaise de pediatrie}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {1018-1025}, doi = {10.1016/j.arcped.2003.12.020}, pmid = {15288114}, issn = {0929-693X}, mesh = {Air Microbiology ; Animals ; Bacterial Infections/*epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; *Climate ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*epidemiology/etiology/prevention &amp; control ; Disease Vectors ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Humidity ; Risk Factors ; Water Microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid15286350, year = {2004}, author = {Abraham, S}, title = {Climate. The Bush administration's approach to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {305}, number = {5684}, pages = {616-617}, doi = {10.1126/science.1098630}, pmid = {15286350}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15286335, year = {2004}, author = {Stokstad, E}, title = {Environment. States sue over global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {305}, number = {5684}, pages = {590}, doi = {10.1126/science.305.5684.590b}, pmid = {15286335}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15278685, year = {2004}, author = {Donnelly, A and Jones, MB and Sweeney, J}, title = {A review of indicators of climate change for use in Ireland.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {49}, number = {1}, pages = {1-12}, pmid = {15278685}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Guidelines as Topic ; Health ; Humans ; Ireland ; }, abstract = {Impact indicators are systems/organisms, the vitality of which alters in response to changes in environmental condition. The indicators assessed in this review fall within the impact category of the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. Instrumental records have shown unequivocal changes in climatic conditions over the past 30 years at a global level but impact indicators allow these changes to be monitored at a finer resolution. Our main aim was to review sets of indicators of climate change currently used in various countries and to make recommendations for their use in the Irish environment. We review a preliminary set of climate change impact indicators in five sectors: agriculture; plant and animal distribution patterns; phenology; palaeoecology and human health. Currently, the most effective impact indicators of climate change have proved to be phenological observations of tree developmental stages. The strongest factor limiting the use of indicators is the lack of long-term data sets from which a climatic signal can be extracted.}, }
@article {pmid15266983, year = {2004}, author = {Millien, V and Damuth, J}, title = {Climate change and size evolution in an island rodent species: new perspectives on the island rule.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {58}, number = {6}, pages = {1353-1360}, doi = {10.1111/j.0014-3820.2004.tb01713.x}, pmid = {15266983}, issn = {0014-3820}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Body Constitution/*physiology ; *Climate ; Fossils ; Geography ; Japan ; Muridae/*growth &amp; development ; Odontometry ; Regression Analysis ; Temperature ; Tooth/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {As stated by the island rule, small mammals evolve toward gigantism on islands. In addition they are known to evolve faster than their mainland counterparts. Body size in island mammals may also be influenced by geographical climatic gradients or climatic change through time. We tested the relative effects of climate change and isolation on the size of the Japanese rodent Apodemus speciosus and calculated evolutionary rates of body size change since the last glacial maximum (LGM). Currently A. speciosus populations conform both to Bergmann's rule, with an increase in body size with latitude, and to the island rule, with larger body sizes on small islands. We also found that fossil representatives of A. speciosus are larger than their extant relatives. Our estimated evolutionary rates since the LGM show that body size evolution on the smaller islands has been less than half as rapid as on Honshu, the mainland-type large island of Japan. We conclude that island populations exhibit larger body sizes today not because they have evolved toward gigantism, but because their evolution toward a smaller size, due to climate warming since the LGM, has been decelerated by the island effect. These combined results suggest that evolution in Quaternary island small mammals may not have been as fast as expected by the island effect because of the counteracting effect of climate change during this period.}, }
@article {pmid15264602, year = {2004}, author = {Graham, LP}, title = {Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {33}, number = {4-5}, pages = {235-241}, pmid = {15264602}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Baltic States ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Risk Assessment ; Rivers ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {River flow to the Baltic Sea originates under a range of different climate regimes in a drainage basin covering some 1,600,000 km2. Changes to the climate in the Baltic Basin will not only affect the total amount of freshwater flowing into the sea, but also the distribution of the origin of these flows. Using hydrological modeling, the effects of future climate change on river runoff to the Baltic Sea have been analyzed. Four different climate change scenarios from the Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) were used. The resulting change to total mean annual river flow to the Baltic Sea ranges from -2% to +15% of present-day flow according to the different climate scenarios. The magnitude of changes within different subregions of the basin varies considerably, with the most severe mean annual changes ranging from -30% to +40%. However, common to all of the scenarios evaluated is a general trend of reduced river flow from the south of the Baltic Basin together with increased river flow from the north.}, }
@article {pmid15264601, year = {2004}, author = {Andréasson, J and Bergström, S and Carlsson, B and Graham, LP and Lindström, G}, title = {Hydrological change--climate change impact simulations for Sweden.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {33}, number = {4-5}, pages = {228-234}, pmid = {15264601}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Computer Simulation ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Sweden ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.}, }
@article {pmid15264597, year = {2004}, author = {Kjellström, E}, title = {Recent and future signatures of climate change in Europe.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {33}, number = {4-5}, pages = {193-198}, pmid = {15264597}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Europe ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {A set of six regional climate model experiments is investigated for future changes in daily temperature and precipitation in Europe. Changes in the probability distributions for these variables are studied. It is found that the asymmetry of these distributions change differently depending on location and season. Large summertime changes in extremely high temperatures in central, eastern and southern Europe are followed by higher than average temperature increases on warm days in general. Likewise, temperatures on cold days increase much more than the average temperature increase during winter in eastern and northern Europe. A comparison with historical data on wintertime temperature shows that the model simulated and observed daily variability are similar. In particular, the much stronger increase in temperatures on cold days, compared to the average temperature increase as observed in warm compared to cold historical periods, is simulated also by the model. The contribution from heavy precipitation events is simulated to increase over most parts of Europe in all seasons.}, }
@article {pmid15264595, year = {2004}, author = {Lindström, G and Alexandersson, H}, title = {Recent mild and wet years in relation to long observation records and future climate change in Sweden.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {33}, number = {4-5}, pages = {183-186}, pmid = {15264595}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Rain ; Sweden ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Recent mild and wet years in Sweden were compared with long observation series of temperature, precipitation and runoff. Spatial average series for northern and southern Sweden were constructed and analyzed for the period 1901-2002. Precipitation increased considerably during the period, whereas temperature and runoff increases were weaker. On average, for the whole country, the differences between the period 1991-2002 and 1901-1990 were +0.7 degrees C for temperature, +11% in precipitation and +7% in runoff. The differences in temperature and precipitation, but not runoff, were significant at the 5% level. However, the 1930s were equally mild, and the runoff was almost as high in the 1920s. The characteristic feature of the past decade is the combination of high temperature, precipitation and runoff. The deviation between the most recent decade and the preceding years is consistent with climate scenario projections for Sweden, but there are also differences in the seasonal pattern.}, }
@article {pmid15256644, year = {2004}, author = {Enserink, M}, title = {Climate change. Moscow meeting bogged down in acrimony.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {305}, number = {5682}, pages = {319}, doi = {10.1126/science.305.5682.319b}, pmid = {15256644}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15255145, year = {2004}, author = {Gordeev, MI and Ejov, MN}, title = {Global warming and variation in the chromosomal composition of Siberian molaria mosquito populations.}, journal = {Doklady biological sciences : proceedings of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Biological sciences sections}, volume = {395}, number = {}, pages = {136-139}, pmid = {15255145}, issn = {0012-4966}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles/*genetics ; Chromosome Aberrations ; Chromosomes/genetics ; Gene Frequency ; Genetics, Population ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Larva/genetics ; Siberia ; Time ; }, }
@article {pmid15255011, year = {2004}, author = {Eschenbach, WW}, title = {Ecology: climate-change effect on Lake Tanganyika?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {430}, number = {6997}, pages = {1 p following 309; discussion following 309}, doi = {10.1038/nature02689}, pmid = {15255011}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern ; Air ; Animals ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Fresh Water ; Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; Reproducibility of Results ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Wind ; }, }
@article {pmid15246577, year = {2004}, author = {Solecki, WD and Oliveri, C}, title = {Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {72}, number = {1-2}, pages = {105-115}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2004.03.014}, pmid = {15246577}, issn = {0301-4797}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate ; *Environment Design ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies.}, }
@article {pmid15237466, year = {2004}, author = {Harte, J and Ostling, A and Green, JL and Kinzig, A}, title = {Biodiversity conservation: climate change and extinction risk.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {430}, number = {6995}, pages = {3 p following 33; discussion following 33}, doi = {10.1038/nature02718}, pmid = {15237466}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animal Migration ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Birds/physiology ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Population Dynamics ; Queensland ; Reproducibility of Results ; Risk ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Thomas et al. have carried out a useful analysis of the extinction risk from climate warming. Their overall conclusion, that a large fraction of extant species could be driven to extinction by expected climate trends over the next 50 years, is compelling: it adds to the many other reasons why new energy policies are needed to reduce the pace of warming.}, }
@article {pmid15229578, year = {2004}, author = {Gillon, J}, title = {People power against climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {430}, number = {6995}, pages = {15}, doi = {10.1038/430015a}, pmid = {15229578}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid15226500, year = {2004}, author = {Peng, S and Huang, J and Sheehy, JE and Laza, RC and Visperas, RM and Zhong, X and Centeno, GS and Khush, GS and Cassman, KG}, title = {Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {101}, number = {27}, pages = {9971-9975}, pmid = {15226500}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Biomass ; Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/*growth &amp; development ; Oryza/*growth &amp; development ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The impact of projected global warming on crop yields has been evaluated by indirect methods using simulation models. Direct studies on the effects of observed climate change on crop growth and yield could provide more accurate information for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. We analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature by using data from irrigated field experiments conducted at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1992 to 2003. Here we report that annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.35 degrees C and 1.13 degrees C, respectively, for the period 1979-2003 and a close linkage between rice grain yield and mean minimum temperature during the dry cropping season (January to April). Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1 degrees C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming.}, }
@article {pmid15218135, year = {2004}, author = {Lynch-Stieglitz, J}, title = {Ocean science. Hemispheric asynchrony of abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {304}, number = {5679}, pages = {1919-1920}, doi = {10.1126/science.1100374}, pmid = {15218135}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15212243, year = {2004}, author = {Pelley, J}, title = {A real scenario for abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {38}, number = {10}, pages = {179A-180A}, pmid = {15212243}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Government Agencies ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; *Research ; Security Measures ; United States ; *Water ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid15212100, year = {2004}, author = {Pennington, RT and Lavin, M and Prado, DE and Pendry, CA and Pell, SK and Butterworth, CA}, title = {Historical climate change and speciation: neotropical seasonally dry forest plants show patterns of both tertiary and quaternary diversification.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {359}, number = {1443}, pages = {515-537}, pmid = {15212100}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Base Sequence ; Bayes Theorem ; *Biodiversity ; Central America ; *Climate ; DNA, Ribosomal Spacer/genetics ; *Evolution, Molecular ; Geological Phenomena ; Geology ; Likelihood Functions ; *Models, Biological ; Models, Genetic ; Molecular Sequence Data ; *Phylogeny ; Plants/*genetics ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; South America ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Historical climate changes have had a major effect on the distribution and evolution of plant species in the neotropics. What is more controversial is whether relatively recent Pleistocene climatic changes have driven speciation, or whether neotropical species diversity is more ancient. This question is addressed using evolutionary rate analysis of sequence data of nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacers in diverse taxa occupying neotropical seasonally dry forests, including Ruprechtia (Polygonaceae), robinioid legumes (Fabaceae), Chaetocalyx and Nissolia (Fabaceae), and Loxopterygium (Anacardiaceae). Species diversifications in these taxa occurred both during and before the Pleistocene in Central America, but were primarily pre-Pleistocene in South America. This indicates plausibility both for models that predict tropical species diversity to be recent and that invoke a role for Pleistocene climatic change, and those that consider it ancient and implicate geological factors such as the Andean orogeny and the closure of the Panama Isthmus. Cladistic vicariance analysis was attempted to identify common factors underlying evolution in these groups. In spite of the similar Mid-Miocene to Pliocene ages of the study taxa, and their high degree of endemism in the different fragments of South American dry forests, the analysis yielded equivocal, non-robust patterns of area relationships.}, }
@article {pmid15212088, year = {2004}, author = {Cramer, W and Bondeau, A and Schaphoff, S and Lucht, W and Smith, B and Sitch, S}, title = {Tropical forests and the global carbon cycle: impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate change and rate of deforestation.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {359}, number = {1443}, pages = {331-343}, pmid = {15212088}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Atmosphere/*analysis ; *Carbon ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Environment ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Temperature ; *Trees ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The remaining carbon stocks in wet tropical forests are currently at risk because of anthropogenic deforestation, but also because of the possibility of release driven by climate change. To identify the relative roles of CO2 increase, changing temperature and rainfall, and deforestation in the future, and the magnitude of their impact on atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we have applied a dynamic global vegetation model, using multiple scenarios of tropical deforestation (extrapolated from two estimates of current rates) and multiple scenarios of changing climate (derived from four independent offline general circulation model simulations). Results show that deforestation will probably produce large losses of carbon, despite the uncertainty about the deforestation rates. Some climate models produce additional large fluxes due to increased drought stress caused by rising temperature and decreasing rainfall. One climate model, however, produces an additional carbon sink. Taken together, our estimates of additional carbon emissions during the twenty-first century, for all climate and deforestation scenarios, range from 101 to 367 Gt C, resulting in CO2 concentration increases above background values between 29 and 129 p.p.m. An evaluation of the method indicates that better estimates of tropical carbon sources and sinks require improved assessments of current and future deforestation, and more consistent precipitation scenarios from climate models. Notwithstanding the uncertainties, continued tropical deforestation will most certainly play a very large role in the build-up of future greenhouse gas concentrations.}, }
@article {pmid15203453, year = {2004}, author = {Plotnikoff, RC and Wright, MF and Karunamuni, N}, title = {Knowledge, attitudes and behaviours related to climate change in Alberta, Canada: implications for public health policy and practice.}, journal = {International journal of environmental health research}, volume = {14}, number = {3}, pages = {223-229}, doi = {10.1080/0960312042000218633}, pmid = {15203453}, issn = {0960-3123}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Alberta/epidemiology ; *Behavior ; Climate ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Public Policy ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; }, abstract = {Climate change has received recent extensive media attention (e.g., Kyoto Protocol) and is currently on the international public health agenda. The purpose of this study was to survey knowledge, attitudes and behaviours related to climate change in the province of Alberta, Canada. A random sample of 600 Alberta households, using proportional quotas based on the Canada Census of the Alberta population, was surveyed on knowledge, attitudes and behaviours related to climate change using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing protocol. Albertans are highly concerned, particularly about health problems related to the environment and air pollution; yet are only moderately informed about a variety of environmental issues. While the great majority of Albertans appear to be engaged in environmental behaviours at home, fewer consider energy efficiency when purchasing consumer goods. An even smaller percentage makes environmentally conscious transportation decisions. To encourage the population to make recommended environmental behaviours, mass media approaches may do well to target the specific beliefs that were deemed salient (e.g., promote the association between environment issues and health). The public health sector has a major role in working with inter-sectoral groups to address this significant public health issue.}, }
@article {pmid15192226, year = {2004}, author = {Carter, RM and Gammon, P}, title = {New Zealand maritime glaciation: millennial-scale southern climate change since 3.9 Ma.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {304}, number = {5677}, pages = {1659-1662}, doi = {10.1126/science.1093726}, pmid = {15192226}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Ocean Drilling Program Site 1119 is ideally located to intercept discharges of sediment from the mid-latitude glaciers of the New Zealand Southern Alps. The natural gamma ray signal from the site's sediment core contains a history of the South Island mountain ice cap since 3.9 million years ago (Ma). The younger record, to 0.37 Ma, resembles the climatic history of Antarctica as manifested by the Vostok ice core. Beyond, and back to the late Pliocene, the record may serve as a proxy for both mid-latitude and Antarctic polar plateau air temperature. The gamma ray signal, which is atmospheric, also resembles the ocean climate history represented by oxygen isotope time series.}, }
@article {pmid15192216, year = {2004}, author = {Lal, R}, title = {Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate change and food security.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {304}, number = {5677}, pages = {1623-1627}, doi = {10.1126/science.1097396}, pmid = {15192216}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Atmosphere ; Biomass ; Carbon/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Crops, Agricultural/growth &amp; development ; Ecosystem ; *Food ; Food Supply ; Humans ; Malnutrition ; Poverty ; Soil/*analysis ; }, abstract = {The carbon sink capacity of the world's agricultural and degraded soils is 50 to 66% of the historic carbon loss of 42 to 78 gigatons of carbon. The rate of soil organic carbon sequestration with adoption of recommended technologies depends on soil texture and structure, rainfall, temperature, farming system, and soil management. Strategies to increase the soil carbon pool include soil restoration and woodland regeneration, no-till farming, cover crops, nutrient management, manuring and sludge application, improved grazing, water conservation and harvesting, efficient irrigation, agroforestry practices, and growing energy crops on spare lands. An increase of 1 ton of soil carbon pool of degraded cropland soils may increase crop yield by 20 to 40 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) for wheat, 10 to 20 kg/ha for maize, and 0.5 to 1 kg/ha for cowpeas. As well as enhancing food security, carbon sequestration has the potential to offset fossil fuel emissions by 0.4 to 1.2 gigatons of carbon per year, or 5 to 15% of the global fossil-fuel emissions.}, }
@article {pmid15192184, year = {2004}, author = {Kennedy, D}, title = {Climate change and climate science.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {304}, number = {5677}, pages = {1565}, doi = {10.1126/science.304.5677.1565}, pmid = {15192184}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15180066, year = {2004}, author = {Rhoderick, GC and Dorko, WD}, title = {Standards development of global warming gas species: methane, nitrous oxide, trichlorofluoromethane, and dichlorodifluoromethane.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {38}, number = {9}, pages = {2685-2692}, doi = {10.1021/es035424i}, pmid = {15180066}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Chemistry Techniques, Analytical/standards ; Chlorofluorocarbons, Methane/*analysis ; Chromatography, Gas ; Environmental Monitoring/*standards ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; Methane/*analysis ; Nitrous Oxide/*analysis ; Reference Values ; }, abstract = {Environmental scientists from federal agencies, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and academia have long suspected that increasing anthropogenic inputs of various trace gases into the atmosphere can cause changes in the earth's climate and protective ozone layer. Nitrous oxide and methane, cited in the Kyoto Protocol, as well astrichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) and dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12), cited in the Montreal Protocol, are all greenhouse gases and are implicated in the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer. The lack of national standards prompted research to determine the feasibility of preparing accurate and stable standards containing these four compounds. Development of these standards would support the measurement of these species by those in the atmospheric research community not having their own source of standards. A suite of eight primary gas standards containing methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-11, and CFC-12 in a balance of air were prepared gravimetrically to bracket the ambient atmospheric concentrations. The combined uncertainties (uc) were calculated from error propagation analysis that included the weighing data from the gravimetric preparation and other sources of error such as the purity analysis of the compounds and air matrix. The expanded uncertainties (U) for the gravimetric standards were < 0.5% as calculated from the equation U = kuc, where the coverage factor k is equal to 2 for a 95% confidence interval. Analyses of the suite of standards by gas chromatography with flame-ionization and electron capture detection resulted in average absolute residuals of < 0.25% from regression models. The NIST suite of eight gravimetric standards was used to determine the concentrations in two standardsfrom NOAA. Those analyses resulted in bias across the two laboratories of < or = 2.1%.}, }
@article {pmid15175747, year = {2004}, author = {Svensen, H and Planke, S and Malthe-Sørenssen, A and Jamtveit, B and Myklebust, R and Rasmussen Eidem, T and Rey, SS}, title = {Release of methane from a volcanic basin as a mechanism for initial Eocene global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {429}, number = {6991}, pages = {542-545}, doi = {10.1038/nature02566}, pmid = {15175747}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Atmosphere ; Carbon/analysis/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/chemistry ; Fossils ; Gases/analysis/chemistry ; Geologic Sediments/analysis/chemistry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/*analysis/chemistry ; Norway ; Seawater/chemistry ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; *Volcanic Eruptions ; }, abstract = {A 200,000-yr interval of extreme global warming marked the start of the Eocene epoch about 55 million years ago. Negative carbon- and oxygen-isotope excursions in marine and terrestrial sediments show that this event was linked to a massive and rapid (approximately 10,000 yr) input of isotopically depleted carbon. It has been suggested previously that extensive melting of gas hydrates buried in marine sediments may represent the carbon source and has caused the global climate change. Large-scale hydrate melting, however, requires a hitherto unknown triggering mechanism. Here we present evidence for the presence of thousands of hydrothermal vent complexes identified on seismic reflection profiles from the Vøring and Møre basins in the Norwegian Sea. We propose that intrusion of voluminous mantle-derived melts in carbon-rich sedimentary strata in the northeast Atlantic may have caused an explosive release of methane--transported to the ocean or atmosphere through the vent complexes--close to the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary. Similar volcanic and metamorphic processes may explain climate events associated with other large igneous provinces such as the Siberian Traps (approximately 250 million years ago) and the Karoo Igneous Province (approximately 183 million years ago).}, }
@article {pmid15172336, year = {2004}, author = {Reitera, P and Thomas, CJ and Atkinson, PM and Hay, SI and Randolph, SE and Rogers, DJ and Shanks, GD and Snow, RW and Spielman, A}, title = {Global warming and malaria: a call for accuracy.}, journal = {The Lancet. Infectious diseases}, volume = {4}, number = {6}, pages = {323-324}, pmid = {15172336}, issn = {1473-3099}, support = {069045//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Climate ; Developing Countries ; Endemic Diseases ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid15166334, year = {2004}, author = {Pokrovsky, V and Allakhverdov, A}, title = {Climate change: Russia prepares to ratify Kyoto.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {304}, number = {5675}, pages = {1225}, doi = {10.1126/science.304.5675.1225a}, pmid = {15166334}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15166039, year = {2004}, author = {Patz, JA}, title = {Global warming.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {328}, number = {7451}, pages = {1269-1270}, pmid = {15166039}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Environmental Health ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid15161297, year = {2004}, author = {Bera, PP and Horný, L and Schaefer, HF}, title = {Cyclic perfluorocarbon radicals and anions having high global warming potentials (GWPs): structures, electron affinities, and vibrational frequencies.}, journal = {Journal of the American Chemical Society}, volume = {126}, number = {21}, pages = {6692-6702}, doi = {10.1021/ja0305297}, pmid = {15161297}, issn = {0002-7863}, abstract = {Adiabatic electron affinities, optimized molecular geometries, and IR-active vibrational frequencies have been predicted for small cyclic hydrocarbon radicals C(n)H(2)(n)(-)(1) (n = 3-6) and their perfluoro counterparts C(n)F(2)(n)(-)(1) (n = 3-6). Total energies and optimized geometries of the radicals and corresponding anions have been obtained using carefully calibrated (Chem. Rev. 2002, 102, 231) density functional methods, namely, the B3LYP, BLYP, and BP86 functionals in conjunction with the DZP++ basis set. The predicted electron affinities show that only the cyclopropyl radical tends to bind electrons among the hydrocarbon radicals studied. The trend for the perfluorocarbon (PFC) radicals is quite different. The electron affinities increase with expanding ring size until n = 5 and then slightly decrease at n = 6. Predicted electron affinities of the hydrocarbon radicals using the B3LYP hybrid functional are 0.24 eV (C(3)H(5)/C(3)H(5)(-)), -0.19 eV (C(4)H(7)/C(4)H(7)(-)), -0.15 eV (C(5)H(9)/C(5)H(9)(-)), and -0.11 eV (C(6)H(11)/C(6)H(11)(-)). Analogous electron affinities of the perflurocarbon radicals are 2.81 eV (C(3)F(5)/C(3)F(5)(-)), 3.18 eV (C(4)F(7)/C(4)F(7)(-)), 3.34 eV (C(5)F(9)/C(5)F(9)(-)), and 3.21 eV (C(6)F(11)/C(6)F(11)(-)).}, }
@article {pmid15146984, year = {2004}, author = {Zeman, P and Bene, C}, title = {A tick-borne encephalitis ceiling in Central Europe has moved upwards during the last 30 years: possible impact of global warming?.}, journal = {International journal of medical microbiology : IJMM}, volume = {293 Suppl 37}, number = {}, pages = {48-54}, doi = {10.1016/s1433-1128(04)80008-1}, pmid = {15146984}, issn = {1438-4221}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Czech Republic/epidemiology ; Deer ; Encephalitis Viruses, Tick-Borne/*growth &amp; development ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/*epidemiology/virology ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Ixodes/*growth &amp; development/virology ; Retrospective Studies ; Rodentia ; Statistics, Nonparametric ; }, abstract = {The geographic/temporal pattern of cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) registered in the Czech Republic since 1970 was analysed to verify the surmise of a global warming effect. Using a geographic information system, over 8,700 notified places of infection were pin-pointed on a map and overlaid with a digital elevation model to estimate the vertical distribution of the cases. Series of yearly disease ceilings (assessed alternatively as the respective maximum altitude or mean altitudes of the upper 5 or 10 cases) were tested against the null hypothesis of random elevation course and analysed for correlation with concomitant factors (yearly TBE incidence rate, mean yearly temperature, population density of small rodents and roe deer). Statistical tests proved that the TBE ceiling has gradually moved upwards in the course of the last three decades. The average rate of ascension within this period was approx. 5.4 +/- 1.7 m yearly, which corresponds well with concurrent mean temperature rising of approx. 0.036 +/- 0.007 degrees C yearly, and the vertical temperature gradient of 0.0065 +/- 0.0004 degrees C m(-1). The TBE-ceiling estimates significantly correlated with TBE-incidence data and the mean yearly temperature recorded 1-2 years earlier. Although TBE incidence correlated with rodent population density that was observed 1-2 years earlier, the TBE ceiling does not seem to be influenced by rodent population dynamics nor did the population dynamics correlate with mean yearly temperatures. TBE incidence as well as mean altitudes of the upper 10 cases also correlated with official data on harvested roe deer. Overall, the fluctuations of TBE incidence and TBE ceiling proved to be synchronous processes that correspond with temperature changes. Although the dependence of TBE on temperature is not a direct one and various factors could be involved, an impact of climate warming on the vertical disease distribution in Central Europe is evident.}, }
@article {pmid15146981, year = {2004}, author = {Zell, R}, title = {Global climate change and the emergence/re-emergence of infectious diseases.}, journal = {International journal of medical microbiology : IJMM}, volume = {293 Suppl 37}, number = {}, pages = {16-26}, doi = {10.1016/s1433-1128(04)80005-6}, pmid = {15146981}, issn = {1438-4221}, mesh = {Animals ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Dengue/epidemiology ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Disease Vectors ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Malaria/epidemiology ; Public Health ; West Nile Fever/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Variation in the incidence of vector-borne diseases is associated with extreme weather events and annual changes in weather conditions. Moreover, it is assumed that global warming might lead to an increase of infectious disease outbreaks. While a number of reports link disease outbreaks to single weather events, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and other large-scale climate fluctuations, no report unequivocally associates vector-borne diseases with increased temperature and the environmental changes expected to accompany it. The complexity of not yet fully understood pathogen transmission dynamics with numerous variables might be an explanation of the problems in assessing the risk factors.}, }
@article {pmid15146980, year = {2004}, author = {Randolph, SE}, title = {Evidence that climate change has caused 'emergence' of tick-borne diseases in Europe?.}, journal = {International journal of medical microbiology : IJMM}, volume = {293 Suppl 37}, number = {}, pages = {5-15}, doi = {10.1016/s1433-1128(04)80004-4}, pmid = {15146980}, issn = {1438-4221}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Disease Vectors ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/*epidemiology ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Ixodes/*growth &amp; development/virology ; Lyme Disease/*epidemiology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Even though tick-borne disease systems are highly susceptible to climatic influences, climate change to date is not necessarily the cause of the marked increased incidence of a variety of tick-borne diseases in many parts of Europe over the past two decades. To test for causality, rather than coincidence, we need to examine whether the right sorts of climate change have occurred at the right time and in the right places to account for the observed heterogeneous temporal and spatial patterns of tick-borne disease 'emergence'. Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence, for example, showed a 3-fold step increase from 1983 to 1986 in Sweden, doubled in 1993 in the Czech Republic, increased even more dramatically in the same year in Lithuania and Poland, but declined markedly in 1997 in Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia. Within each country, TBE incidence has changed to different degrees in different regions. Because other tick-borne diseases, notably Lyme borreliosis, has commonly 'emerged' in parallel with TBE, we should first examine climate variables predicted to have a general effect on tick abundance, which has indeed increased in the past decade. These include temperature and moisture stress, which have seasonally differential impacts. Monthly mean records for 1960-2000 from the UK Climate Research Unit's interpolated global climate surface reveal that mean spring, spring-autumn and winter temperatures have all increased gradually over the past 40 years, but apparently most sharply in the late 1980s, when moisture stress also increased. These climate data do not reveal any obvious differences between sites where TBE did or did not 'emerge', and in Sweden increases in TBE pre-dated the onset of warmer springs and winters. If recorded climate changes cannot yet satisfactorily explain the temporal and spatial patterns of tick-borne disease change in Europe, the impact of biotic factors, such as increases in deer abundance and changing habitat structure, and of socio-political changes following the end of communist rule, demand more detailed quantitative analyses.}, }
@article {pmid15143433, year = {2004}, author = {Kirschbaum, MU}, title = {Direct and indirect climate change effects on photosynthesis and transpiration.}, journal = {Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany)}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {242-253}, doi = {10.1055/s-2004-820883}, pmid = {15143433}, issn = {1435-8603}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/pharmacology ; Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; Photosynthesis/drug effects/*physiology ; Plant Transpiration/*physiology ; Temperature ; Water/physiology ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects plants in many different ways. Increasing CO(2) concentration can increase photosynthetic rates. This is especially pronounced for C(3) plants, at high temperatures and under water-limited conditions. Increasing temperature also affects photosynthesis, but plants have a considerable ability to adapt to their growth conditions and can function even at extremely high temperatures, provided adequate water is available. Temperature optima differ between species and growth conditions, and are higher in elevated atmospheric CO(2). With increasing temperature, vapour pressure deficits of the air may increase, with a concomitant increase in the transpiration rate from plant canopies. However, if stomata close in response to increasing CO(2) concentration, or if there is a reduction in the diurnal temperature range, then transpiration rates may even decrease. Soil organic matter decomposition rates are likely to be stimulated by higher temperatures, so that nutrients can be more readily mineralised and made available to plants. This is likely to increase photosynthetic carbon gain in nutrient-limited systems. All the factors listed above interact strongly so that, for different combinations of increases in temperature and CO(2) concentration, and for systems in different climatic regions and primarily affected by water or nutrient limitations, photosynthesis must be expected to respond differently to the same climatic changes.}, }
@article {pmid15142769, year = {2004}, author = {Worrall, F and Burt, T and Adamson, J}, title = {Can climate change explain increases in DOC flux from upland peat catchments?.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {326}, number = {1-3}, pages = {95-112}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2003.11.022}, pmid = {15142769}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Rivers ; Soil ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; Water/chemistry ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Long-term increases in DOC concentration in rivers draining areas of upland peat are a ubiquitous phenomenon in the UK. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these increases, but one compelling explanation is the observed long-term increase in temperature in UK uplands causing increases in peat decomposition rates, and increasing the depth of oxidation as evaporation increases depth to the water table. The study constructed an empirical model for water table depth and decomposition rate calibrated against observations from the Environmental Change Network monitoring site at Moor House in the North Pennines, UK. The study shows: (i) Depth of the water table has not changed significantly over a 30-year period, reflecting the fact that blanket peat is well buffered against climate change. (ii) Increases in temperature are responsible for a 12% increase in DOC production while an approximate 78% increase in DOC production has been observed. (iii) Overall DOC production is predicted to rise by 6% but observation suggests increases on the scale of 97%. (iv) The model inadequately represents changes in production and supply of DOC during periods of severe drought. The study shows that temperature change alone is insufficient to explain observed increases in DOC production. Alternative explanations for large increases in DOC production could include changes in land management, but an enzymic latch mechanism, i.e. derepression of anaerobic degradation, causing increased decomposition rates in response to severe drought is preferred.}, }
@article {pmid15140094, year = {2004}, author = {Chinn, WG and Gemmell, NJ}, title = {Adaptive radiation within New Zealand endemic species of the cockroach genus Celatoblatta Johns (Blattidae): a response to Plio-Pleistocene mountain building and climate change.}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {1507-1518}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2004.02160.x}, pmid = {15140094}, issn = {0962-1083}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological/*physiology ; Animals ; Base Sequence ; *Climate ; Cluster Analysis ; Cockroaches/*genetics/physiology ; *Environment ; Evolution, Molecular ; Geography ; Hybridization, Genetic ; Likelihood Functions ; *Models, Biological ; Models, Genetic ; Molecular Sequence Data ; New Zealand ; *Phylogeny ; Sequence Analysis, DNA ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {The South Island of New Zealand offers unique opportunities to study insect evolution due to long-term physical isolation, recent alpine habitats and high levels of biotic endemism. Using DNA sequence data from cytochrome oxidase subunit 1, we investigated the phylogeographical pattern among 10 endemic cockroach species within the genus Celatoblatta Johns (Blattidae). We tested the hypothesis that an ancestral cockroach species underwent rapid speciation in response to major climatic differentiation induced by mountain building. Results suggest that speciation was a twofold process, with an interspecific radiation of Pliocene/Pleistocene age followed by intraspecific diversification during the mid Pleistocene. Average genetic distance (maximum likelihood GTR + I + Gamma) was 9.17%, with a maximum of 14.5%. Data revealed eight deep well-supported branches, each with terminal clades. Six clades were differentiated according to morphological species, while the seventh was composed of three sympatric species. We consider the latter to be a phylogenetic species, possibly as a result of hybridization within a defined geographical area. This finding seriously challenges species distinctions for these three cockroach species. Correlation between genetic distances and a Climate Similarity Index (CSI) was negative, suggesting that species found in similar habitats are also genetically closely related. A Mantel test on within-clade genetic distances vs. linear geographical distance was positive, suggesting allopatric isolation for those haplotypes. We present a model of speciation for South Island Celatoblatta.}, }
@article {pmid15139337, year = {2004}, author = {Ault, A}, title = {Report blames global warming for rising asthma.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {363}, number = {9420}, pages = {1532}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(04)16191-6}, pmid = {15139337}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; Allergens ; Asthma/epidemiology/*etiology ; Child, Preschool ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Urban Health ; }, }
@article {pmid15137171, year = {2003}, author = {Herricks, EE and Bergner, ER}, title = {Prediction of climate change effects of fish communities in the Mackinaw River watershed, Illinois, USA.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {48}, number = {10}, pages = {199-207}, pmid = {15137171}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Animals ; *Fishes ; Food Chain ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Illinois ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Rivers ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {As part of an integrated assessment of multiple sector impacts produced by predicted changes in climate we have integrated a set of models, which provide predictions of fish populations under changing flow and temperature regimes. The core of the approach is the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service Physical Habitat Simulation Model (PHABSIM). PHABSIM estimates habitat conditions based on flow, which are life stage specific. The output from PHABSIM is used to model fish populations, considering both flow and a temperature threshold, which affects spawning date. Water temperatures were modelled based on air temperature. The resulting assessment tool provides the means to evaluate the effect of multiple stressors produced by climate change scenarios. The model has been used to estimate smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieui) populations for representative reaches of the Mackinaw River, Illinois. The model has been used to illuminate population effects of changing flow and temperature under historical climate/weather conditions, as well as under climate change scenarios. The integrated models in the assessment tool have provided a useful addition to watershed management, improving our capacity to evaluate natural resources impact at temporal scales typical of climate change, and management response systems.}, }
@article {pmid15129246, year = {2004}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Global warming anomaly may succumb to microwave study.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {429}, number = {6987}, pages = {7}, doi = {10.1038/429007a}, pmid = {15129246}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid15112784, year = {2004}, author = {Schnoor, JL}, title = {Energy and global warming: the great convergence.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {38}, number = {7}, pages = {119A}, doi = {10.1021/es040443t}, pmid = {15112784}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Energy-Generating Resources ; *Environment ; Environmental Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Effect ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid15105496, year = {2004}, author = {Mastrandrea, MD and Schneider, SH}, title = {Probabilistic integrated assessment of "dangerous" climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {304}, number = {5670}, pages = {571-575}, doi = {10.1126/science.1094147}, pmid = {15105496}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system-climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from approximately 45% under minimal controls to near zero.}, }
@article {pmid15103369, year = {2004}, author = {Marcus, PS}, title = {Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {428}, number = {6985}, pages = {828-831}, doi = {10.1038/nature02470}, pmid = {15103369}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Jupiter's atmosphere, as observed in the 1979 Voyager space craft images, is characterized by 12 zonal jet streams and about 80 vortices, the largest of which are the Great Red Spot and three White Ovals that had formed in the 1930s. The Great Red Spot has been observed continuously since 1665 and, given the dynamical similarities between the Great Red Spot and the White Ovals, the disappearance of two White Ovals in 1997-2000 was unexpected. Their longevity and sudden demise has been explained however, by the trapping of anticyclonic vortices in the troughs of Rossby waves, forcing them to merge. Here I propose that the disappearance of the White Ovals was not an isolated event, but part of a recurring climate cycle which will cause most of Jupiter's vortices to disappear within the next decade. In my numerical simulations, the loss of the vortices results in a global temperature change of about 10 K, which destabilizes the atmosphere and thereby leads to the formation of new vortices. After formation, the large vortices are eroded by turbulence over a time of approximately 60 years--consistent with observations of the White Ovals-until they disappear and the cycle begins again.}, }
@article {pmid15101580, year = {2004}, author = {Gamble, C and Davies, W and Pettitt, P and Richards, M}, title = {Climate change and evolving human diversity in Europe during the last glacial.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {359}, number = {1442}, pages = {243-53; discussion 253-4}, pmid = {15101580}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Archaeology ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Demography ; *Environment ; Europe ; *Genetic Variation ; Geography ; Hominidae/*genetics ; Humans ; }, abstract = {A link between climate change and human evolution during the Pleistocene has often been assumed but rarely tested. At the macro-evolutionary level Foley showed for hominids that extinction, rather than speciation, correlates with environmental change as recorded in the deep sea record. Our aim is to examine this finding at a smaller scale and with high-resolution environmental and archaeological archives. Our interest is in changing patterns of human dispersal under shifting Pleistocene climates during the last glacial period in Europe. Selecting this time frame and region allows us to observe how two hominid taxa, Neanderthals and Crô-Magnons, adapted to climatic conditions during oxygen isotope stage 3. These taxa are representative of two hominid adaptive radiations, termed terrestrial and aquatic, which exhibited different habitat preferences but similar tolerances to climatic factors. Their response to changing ecological conditions was predicated upon their ability to extend their societies in space and time. We examine this difference further using a database of all available radiocarbon determinations from western Europe in the late glacial. These data act as proxies for population history, and in particular the expansion and contraction of regional populations as climate changed rapidly. Independent assessment of these processes is obtained from the genetic history of Europeans. The results indicate that climate affects population contraction rather than expansion. We discuss the consequences for genetic and cultural diversity which led to the legacy of the Ice Age: a single hominid species, globally distributed.}, }
@article {pmid15096586, year = {2004}, author = {Bay, RC and Bramall, N and Price, PB}, title = {Bipolar correlation of volcanism with millennial climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {101}, number = {17}, pages = {6341-6345}, pmid = {15096586}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {Analyzing data from our optical dust logger, we find that volcanic ash layers from the Siple Dome (Antarctica) borehole are simultaneous (with >99% rejection of the null hypothesis) with the onset of millennium-timescale cooling recorded at Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2; Greenland). These data are the best evidence yet for a causal connection between volcanism and millennial climate change and lead to possibilities of a direct causal relationship. Evidence has been accumulating for decades that volcanic eruptions can perturb climate and possibly affect it on long timescales and that volcanism may respond to climate change. If rapid climate change can induce volcanism, this result could be further evidence of a southern-lead North-South climate asynchrony. Alternatively, a volcanic-forcing viewpoint is of particular interest because of the high correlation and relative timing of the events, and it may involve a scenario in which volcanic ash and sulfate abruptly increase the soluble iron in large surface areas of the nutrient-limited Southern Ocean, stimulate growth of phytoplankton, which enhance volcanic effects on planetary albedo and the global carbon cycle, and trigger northern millennial cooling. Large global temperature swings could be limited by feedback within the volcano-climate system.}, }
@article {pmid15092926, year = {2000}, author = {Chakraborty, S and Tiedemann, AV and Teng, PS}, title = {Climate change: potential impact on plant diseases.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {108}, number = {3}, pages = {317-326}, doi = {10.1016/s0269-7491(99)00210-9}, pmid = {15092926}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {Global climate has changed since pre-industrial times. Atmospheric CO(2), a major greenhouse gas, has increased by nearly 30% and temperature has risen by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees C. The intergovernmental panel on climate change predicts that with the current emission scenario, global mean temperature would rise between 0.9 and 3.5 degrees C by the year 2100. There are, however, many uncertainties that influence these predictions. Despite the significance of weather on plant diseases, comprehensive analysis of how climate change will influence plant diseases that impact primary production in agricultural systems is presently unavailable. Evaluation of the limited literature in this area suggests that the most likely impact of climate change will be felt in three areas: in losses from plant diseases, in the efficacy of disease management strategies and in the geographical distribution of plant diseases. Climate change could have positive, negative or no impact on individual plant diseases. More research is needed to obtain base-line information on different disease systems. Most plant disease models use different climatic variables and operate at a different spatial and temporal scale than do the global climate models. Improvements in methodology are necessary to realistically assess disease impacts at a global scale.}, }
@article {pmid15092855, year = {2000}, author = {Constable, JV and Friend, AL}, title = {Suitability of process-based tree growth models for addressing tree response to climate change.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {110}, number = {1}, pages = {47-59}, doi = {10.1016/s0269-7491(99)00289-4}, pmid = {15092855}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {Empirical models of tree growth have been used for many years to predict timber yields and other properties of trees. However, such models rely on measured relationships between tree growth and historic environmental conditions. As anthropogenic actions alter the environment, especially atmospheric composition, empirical models become less reliable and process-based models become more useful. Process-based models are challenged to simulate growth of structurally and physiologically complex organisms using explicit mathematical expressions to capture growth response to environmental conditions. In this review we summarize the physiological requirements of process-based models and examine the capabilities of six published models (CARBON, ECOPHYS, PGSM, TREE-BGC, TREGRO, W91) for simulating tree response to changes in environmental conditions (elevated temperature, increased CO(2) concentration, and enhanced concentrations of tropospheric ozone). These analyses indicate that current models are reliable integrators of environmental effects on individual processes (e.g. photosynthesis), but may be less reliable where physiological acclimation occurs or when extrapolated to growth of specific tree compartments.}, }
@article {pmid15087538, year = {2004}, author = {Weaver, AJ and Hillaire-Marcel, C}, title = {Ocean science. Global warming and the next ice age.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {304}, number = {5669}, pages = {400-402}, doi = {10.1126/science.1096503}, pmid = {15087538}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15087526, year = {2004}, author = {Broecker, WS}, title = {Future global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {304}, number = {5669}, pages = {388}, doi = {10.1126/science.304.5669.388b}, pmid = {15087526}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid15056394, year = {2004}, author = {Ellis, AM and Post, E}, title = {Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {4}, number = {}, pages = {2}, pmid = {15056394}, issn = {1472-6785}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Animals ; *Climate ; Deer/growth &amp; development ; Linear Models ; Michigan ; Nonlinear Dynamics ; Population Dynamics ; Predatory Behavior/physiology ; Snow ; Temperature ; Wolves/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999.<br><br>RESULTS: The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.}, }
@article {pmid15051875, year = {2004}, author = {Dutta, PK and Radner, R}, title = {Self-enforcing climate-change treaties.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {101}, number = {14}, pages = {5174-5179}, pmid = {15051875}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {In the absence of world government, an effective treaty to control the emissions of greenhouse gases should be self-enforcing. A self-enforcing treaty has the property that, if a country expects other countries to abide by the treaty, it will be in the self-interest of that country to abide by the treaty too. (A difficulty with the Kyoto Protocol is that it does not appear to lay the groundwork for a self-enforcing treaty). A self-enforcing treaty can be modeled as a Nash equilibrium of a suitably defined dynamic game among a large number of sovereign countries of diverse sizes and economic capabilities. We study such a game and characterize its equilibria (typically there are many) and the global-Pareto-optimal solutions. We identify one of the equilibria, which we call "business as usual," with the current situation. The multiplicity of equilibria provides an opportunity to move from the inefficient business-as-usual equilibrium to one or more equilibria that are Pareto-superior. Using a calibrated model with 184 countries, we give numerical illustrations of business-as-usual and global-Pareto-optimal trajectories and estimate the potential welfare gains from a self-enforcing treaty.}, }
@article {pmid15049308, year = {2004}, author = {Gilbreath, J}, title = {Global warming kills.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {112}, number = {3}, pages = {A160}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.112-a160a}, pmid = {15049308}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Disasters ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Mortality/*trends ; Risk Assessment ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid15036696, year = {2004}, author = {Ruth, M and Davidsdottir, B and Amato, A}, title = {Climate change policies and capital vintage effects: the cases of US pulp and paper, iron and steel, and ethylene.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {70}, number = {3}, pages = {235-252}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2003.11.008}, pmid = {15036696}, issn = {0301-4797}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environment ; Ethylenes ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Guideline Adherence ; *Industry ; Iron ; *Models, Economic ; Paper ; Policy Making ; Steel ; Technology/*trends ; United States ; }, abstract = {Changes in material use, energy use and emissions profiles of industry are the result of complex interrelationships among a multitude of technological and economic drivers. To better understand and guide such changes requires that attention is paid to the time-varying consequences that technology and economic influences have on an industry's choice of inputs and its associated (desired and undesired) outputs. This paper lays out an approach to improving our understanding of the dynamics of large industrial systems. The approach combines engineering and econometric analysis with a detailed representation of an industry's capital stock structure. A transparent dynamic computer modeling approach is chosen to integrate information from these analyses in ways that foster participation of stakeholders from industry and government agencies in all stages of the modeling process-from problem definition and determination of system boundaries to generation of scenarios and interpretation of results. Three case studies of industrial energy use in the USA are presented-one each for the iron and steel, pulp and paper, and ethylene industry. Dynamic models of these industries are described and then used to investigate alternative carbon emissions and investment-led policies. A comparison of results clearly points towards two key issues: the need for industry specific policy approaches in order to effectively influence industrial energy use, fuel mix and carbon emissions, and the need for longer time horizons than have typically been chosen for the analysis of industrial responses to climate change policies.}, }
@article {pmid15021981, year = {2004}, author = {Heegaard, E and Vandvik, V}, title = {Climate change affects the outcome of competitive interactions-an application of principal response curves.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {139}, number = {3}, pages = {459-466}, pmid = {15021981}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Monte Carlo Method ; Norway ; *Plant Development ; Snow ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {It has been hypothesised that climate change may affect vegetation by changing the outcome of competitive interactions. We use a space-for-time approach to evaluate this hypothesis in the context of alpine time-of-snowmelt gradients. Principal response curves, a multivariate repeated-measurement analysis technique, are used to analyse for compositional differences in local ridge-to-snowbed gradients among 100 m altitudinal bands from 1,140 to 1,550 m a.s.l., corresponding to a temperature gradient of 2.5 degrees C (local lapse rate is 0.6 degrees C). The interaction between time-of-snowmelt and altitude is strongly significant statistically, indicating that the altitudinal gradient cannot be explained simply by the physiological responses of the species, but that there are also changes in the outcome of competitive interactions. At higher altitudes, there is a decrease in the time-of-snowmelt ranges of species which have intermediate times-of-snowmelt optima, whereas snowbed (chinophilous) species have wider time-of-snowmelt ranges. As snowbed species can survive, grow and reproduce at very early snow-free sites at high altitudes, the most likely explanation for their absence from all but the latest time-of-snowmelt habitats at lower altitudes is competitive exclusion by more vigorous lee-side species. This suggests that with future climate change snowbed species will experience, in addition to habitat fragmentation and reduced size of habitats due to increased temperature and snowmelt, an indirect effect due to competitive exclusion from late-snowmelt sites by species that have their optima outside snowbeds.}, }
@article {pmid15016975, year = {2004}, author = {Krajick, K}, title = {Climate change. All downhill from here?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {303}, number = {5664}, pages = {1600-1602}, doi = {10.1126/science.303.5664.1600}, pmid = {15016975}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Animals ; Biodiversity ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Environmental Pollutants/analysis ; Fishes/physiology ; Geography ; Lagomorpha/physiology ; *Plant Development ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, }
@article {pmid15001755, year = {2004}, author = {Webster, P}, title = {Climate change. A Eurasian tiger threatens to maul Kyoto.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {303}, number = {5663}, pages = {1461-1462}, doi = {10.1126/science.303.5663.1461}, pmid = {15001755}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid14998003, year = {2004}, author = {Betts, KS}, title = {Climate change technology reports criticized.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {38}, number = {4}, pages = {70A-71A}, doi = {10.1021/es040374i}, pmid = {14998003}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Financing, Government ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Policy Making ; Politics ; *Public Policy ; Research/*organization &amp; administration ; Technology/trends ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid14981880, year = {2004}, author = {Hansen, J}, title = {Defusing the global warming time bomb.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {290}, number = {3}, pages = {68-77}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0304-68}, pmid = {14981880}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {Aerosols ; Antarctic Regions ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ice ; Methane/analysis ; Oceans and Seas ; Vehicle Emissions ; }, }
@article {pmid14974712, year = {2004}, author = {Cockell, CS and Córdoba-Jabonero, C}, title = {Coupling of climate change and biotic UV exposure through changing snow-ice covers in terrestrial habitats.}, journal = {Photochemistry and photobiology}, volume = {79}, number = {1}, pages = {26-31}, pmid = {14974712}, issn = {0031-8655}, mesh = {Climate ; *Environment ; *Environmental Exposure ; Ice ; Snow ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {During the spring, when ozone depletion at the polar regions is at its maximum and consequently the environmental UV exposure is potentially high, many terrestrial communities are covered in snow and heterogeneous snow-encrusted ice that form near the edges of snowpack. Using field measurements and a theoretical radiative transfer model, we calculated the thicknesses of these covers that are necessary to reduce DNA-weighted dose to levels equal to or lower than those received later in the season in the absence of covers when there is no ozone depletion. This depth is approximately 4 cm for a 60% depletion of the ozone column, suggesting that even thin snow-ice covers are enough to completely cancel the biological effects of ozone depletion. Loss of snow-ice covers during early summer can be rapid. The maximum rate of retreat of snow cover measured during November at Mars Oasis, Antarctica (71.9 degrees S, 68.2 degrees W), was 44.1 cm/day, with a mean retreat of 15.4 cm/day. Climate warming might increase UV-radiation damage by melting UV-protecting terrestrial snow-ice covers earlier in the season, when ozone depletion is more severe. Conversely, climate cooling could increase UV-protection afforded to terrestrial communities by increasing the extent of snow and ice covers. Even if anthropogenic ozone depletion is eventually reversed, these data suggest the importance of climate forcing in determining UV exposures of terrestrial microbial communities in snow- and ice-covered environments.}, }
@article {pmid14971768, year = {2004}, author = {Diffey, B}, title = {Climate change, ozone depletion and the impact on ultraviolet exposure of human skin.}, journal = {Physics in medicine and biology}, volume = {49}, number = {1}, pages = {R1-11}, doi = {10.1088/0031-9155/49/1/r01}, pmid = {14971768}, issn = {0031-9155}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Humans ; Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced/epidemiology ; *Ozone ; Risk ; Seasons ; Skin/*radiation effects ; Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology ; Sunburn ; Sunlight ; Time Factors ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; United Kingdom ; Vitamin D/metabolism ; }, abstract = {For 30 years there has been concern that anthropogenic damage to the Earth's stratospheric ozone layer will lead to an increase of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the Earth's surface, with a consequent adverse impact on human health, especially to the skin. More recently, there has been an increased awareness of the interactions between ozone depletion and climate change (global warming), which could also impact on human exposure to terrestrial UV. The most serious effect of changing UV exposure of human skin is the potential rise in incidence of skin cancers. Risk estimates of this disease associated with ozone depletion suggest that an additional peak incidence of 5000 cases of skin cancer per year in the UK would occur around the mid-part of this century. Climate change, which is predicted to lead to an increased frequency of extreme temperature events and high summer temperatures, will become more frequent in the UK. This could impact on human UV exposure by encouraging people to spend more time in the sun. Whilst future social trends remain uncertain, it is likely that over this century behaviour associated with climate change, rather than ozone depletion, will be the largest determinant of sun exposure, and consequent impact on skin cancer, of the UK population.}, }
@article {pmid14971682, year = {2004}, author = {Bailey, SW}, title = {Climate change and decreasing herbicide persistence.}, journal = {Pest management science}, volume = {60}, number = {2}, pages = {158-162}, doi = {10.1002/ps.785}, pmid = {14971682}, issn = {1526-498X}, mesh = {*Climate ; Herbicides/*metabolism ; Methylurea Compounds/*metabolism ; Models, Biological ; Pesticide Residues/*metabolism ; *Phenylurea Compounds ; Temperature ; Weather ; }, abstract = {A herbicide degradation model, using real weather data for the period 1980-2001, has been used to estimate the change in persistence of autumn-applied isoproturon over this period. The results suggest that soil residues fell to the minimum for weed control on average approximately 30 days earlier over the last 5 years of this period than in the first 5 years, equivalent to a reduction of approximately 25% in the duration of weed control. This decline in persistence is attributed to increasing soil temperature. The results are discussed in relation to recent observations and predictions on climate change. The relevance of the findings to other pesticides and future weed control is considered.}, }
@article {pmid14961091, year = {2004}, author = {Mason, B}, title = {Climate change: the hot hand of history.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {427}, number = {6975}, pages = {582-583}, doi = {10.1038/427582a}, pmid = {14961091}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Agriculture/*history ; Antarctic Regions ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Cold Climate ; Earth, Planet ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, 16th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, Ancient ; History, Medieval ; *Ice ; Methane/metabolism ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Pollen ; Seawater/chemistry ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees/physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid14750703, year = {2004}, author = {Pelley, J}, title = {States take lead on climate change laws.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {38}, number = {2}, pages = {30A-31A}, doi = {10.1021/es0403413}, pmid = {14750703}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Interinstitutional Relations ; *Policy Making ; State Government ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid14743271, year = {2004}, author = {, }, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report 2003.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {1-5}, doi = {10.1039/b315551j}, pmid = {14743271}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Environment ; *Ozone ; }, abstract = {United Nations Environment Programme, Environmental Effects Assessment Panel}, }
@article {pmid14739424, year = {2004}, author = {Meserve, RA}, title = {Global warming and nuclear power.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {303}, number = {5657}, pages = {433}, doi = {10.1126/science.303.5657.433}, pmid = {14739424}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid14715997, year = {2004}, author = {King, DA}, title = {Environment. Climate change science: adapt, mitigate, or ignore?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {303}, number = {5655}, pages = {176-177}, doi = {10.1126/science.1094329}, pmid = {14715997}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid14712274, year = {2004}, author = {Thomas, CD and Cameron, A and Green, RE and Bakkenes, M and Beaumont, LJ and Collingham, YC and Erasmus, BF and De Siqueira, MF and Grainger, A and Hannah, L and Hughes, L and Huntley, B and Van Jaarsveld, AS and Midgley, GF and Miles, L and Ortega-Huerta, MA and Peterson, AT and Phillips, OL and Williams, SE}, title = {Extinction risk from climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {427}, number = {6970}, pages = {145-148}, doi = {10.1038/nature02121}, pmid = {14712274}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Carbon/metabolism ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (approximately 18%) than mid-range (approximately 24%) and maximum-change (approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.}, }
@article {pmid14709582, year = {2004}, author = {Haines, A and Patz, JA}, title = {Health effects of climate change.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {291}, number = {1}, pages = {99-103}, doi = {10.1001/jama.291.1.99}, pmid = {14709582}, issn = {1538-3598}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Allergens ; Animals ; Communicable Diseases ; Disasters ; Disease Reservoirs ; Disease Vectors ; *Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Malnutrition ; }, }
@article {pmid14704410, year = {2004}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Sea change in the Atlantic.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {303}, number = {5654}, pages = {35}, doi = {10.1126/science.303.5654.35}, pmid = {14704410}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid14703907, year = {2003}, author = {Valiela, I and Bowen, JL}, title = {Shifts in winter distribution in birds: effects of global warming and local habitat change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {32}, number = {7}, pages = {476-480}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-32.7.476}, pmid = {14703907}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; *Birds ; Cities ; Environment ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Massachusetts ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {As global warming intensified toward the end of the 20th century, there was a northward shift in winter ranges of bird species in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. These poleward shifts were correlated to local increases in minimum winter temperatures and global temperature anomalies. This evidence, plus other recent results, suggests that during the last two decades global warming has led to massive and widespread biogeographic shifts with potentially major ecological and human consequences. Local habitat changes associated with urban sprawl affected mainly forest birds with more northern winter distributions. In Cape Cod, the effects of warming on bird distributions are more substantial at the start of the 21st century, than those of habitat alteration, but as urban sprawl continues its importance may rival that of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid14703150, year = {2003}, author = {Semadeni-Davies, A}, title = {Response surfaces for climate change impact assessments in urban areas.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {48}, number = {9}, pages = {165-175}, pmid = {14703150}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate ; Economics ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Seasons ; Snow ; Temperature ; Water Movements ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Assessment of the impacts of climate change in real-world water systems, such as urban drainage networks, is a research priority for IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The usual approach is to force a hydrological transformation model with a changed climate scenario. To tackle uncertainty, the model should be run with at least high, middle and low change scenarios. This paper shows the value of response surfaces for displaying multiple simulated responses to incremental changes in air temperature and precipitation. The example given is inflow, related to sewer infiltration, at the Lycksele waste water treatment plant. The range of plausible changes in inflow is displayed for a series of runs for eight GCMs (Global Circulation Model; ACACIA; Carter, 2002, pers. comm.). These runs are summarised by climate envelopes, one for each prediction time-slice (2020, 2050, 2080). Together, the climate envelopes and response surfaces allow uncertainty to be easily seen. Winter inflows are currently sensitive to temperature, but if average temperature rises to above zero, inflow will be most sensitive to precipitation. Spring inflows are sensitive to changes in winter snow accumulation and melt. Inflow responses are highly dependent on the greenhouse gas emission scenario and GCM chosen.}, }
@article {pmid14685198, year = {2003}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change: the long road from Kyoto.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {426}, number = {6968}, pages = {756}, doi = {10.1038/426756a}, pmid = {14685198}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Animal Migration ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Environment ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; }, }
@article {pmid14671293, year = {2003}, author = {Watson, RT}, title = {Climate change: the political situation.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {302}, number = {5652}, pages = {1925-1926}, doi = {10.1126/science.1093160}, pmid = {14671293}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid14671292, year = {2003}, author = {Hasselmann, K and Latif, M and Hooss, G and Azar, C and Edenhofer, O and Jaeger, CC and Johannessen, OM and Kemfert, C and Welp, M and Wokaun, A}, title = {The challenge of long-term climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {302}, number = {5652}, pages = {1923-1925}, doi = {10.1126/science.1090858}, pmid = {14671292}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Climate policy needs to address the multidecadal to centennial time scale of climate change. Although the realization of short-term targets is an important first step, to be effective climate policies need to be conceived as long-term programs that will achieve a gradual transition to an essentially emission-free economy on the time scale of a century. This requires a considerably broader spectrum of policy measures than the primarily market-based instruments invoked for shorter term mitigation policies. A successful climate policy must consist of a dual approach focusing on both short-term targets and long-term goals.}, }
@article {pmid14660862, year = {2003}, author = {Seneviratne, G}, title = {Global warming and terrestrial carbon sequestration.}, journal = {Journal of biosciences}, volume = {28}, number = {6}, pages = {653-655}, pmid = {14660862}, issn = {0250-5991}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*chemistry ; Carbon/*chemistry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid14657489, year = {2003}, author = {Karl, TR and Trenberth, KE}, title = {Modern global climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {302}, number = {5651}, pages = {1719-1723}, doi = {10.1126/science.1090228}, pmid = {14657489}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Modern climate change is dominated by human influences, which are now large enough to exceed the bounds of natural variability. The main source of global climate change is human-induced changes in atmospheric composition. These perturbations primarily result from emissions associated with energy use, but on local and regional scales, urbanization and land use changes are also important. Although there has been progress in monitoring and understanding climate change, there remain many scientific, technical, and institutional impediments to precisely planning for, adapting to, and mitigating the effects of climate change. There is still considerable uncertainty about the rates of change that can be expected, but it is clear that these changes will be increasingly manifested in important and tangible ways, such as changes in extremes of temperature and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and perennial snow and ice extent, and sea level rise. Anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue for many centuries. We are venturing into the unknown with climate, and its associated impacts could be quite disruptive.}, }
@article {pmid14656226, year = {2003}, author = {McMichael, AJ}, title = {Global climate change: will it affect vector-borne infectious diseases?.}, journal = {Internal medicine journal}, volume = {33}, number = {12}, pages = {554-555}, doi = {10.1111/j.1445-5994.2003.00492.x}, pmid = {14656226}, issn = {1444-0903}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia/epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid14654317, year = {2003}, author = {Tanser, FC and Sharp, B and le Sueur, D}, title = {Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {362}, number = {9398}, pages = {1792-1798}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14898-2}, pmid = {14654317}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Animals ; *Climate ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Incidence ; Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology/*transmission ; Models, Biological ; Mosquito Control ; Plasmodium falciparum/growth &amp; development ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Climate change is likely to affect transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. We quantitatively estimated current malaria exposure and assessed the potential effect of projected climate scenarios on malaria transmission.<br><br>METHODS: We produced a spatiotemporally validated (against 3791 parasite surveys) model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa. Using different climate scenarios from the Hadley Centre global climate model (HAD CM3) climate experiments, we projected the potential effect of climate change on transmission patterns.<br><br>FINDINGS: Our model showed sensitivity and specificity of 63% and 96%, respectively (within 1 month temporal accuracy), when compared with the parasite surveys. We estimate that on average there are 3.1 billion person-months of exposure (445 million people exposed) in Africa per year. The projected scenarios would estimate a 5-7% potential increase (mainly altitudinal) in malaria distribution with surprisingly little increase in the latitudinal extents of the disease by 2100. Of the overall potential increase (although transmission will decrease in some countries) of 16-28% in person-months of exposure (assuming a constant population), a large proportion will be seen in areas of existing transmission.<br><br>INTERPRETATION: The effect of projected climate change indicates that a prolonged transmission season is as important as geographical expansion in correct assessment of the effect of changes in transmission patterns. Our model constitutes a valid baseline against which climate scenarios can be assessed and interventions planned.}, }
@article {pmid14654310, year = {2003}, author = {Hales, S and Woodward, A}, title = {Climate change will increase demands on malaria control in Africa.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {362}, number = {9398}, pages = {1775}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14939-2}, pmid = {14654310}, issn = {1474-547X}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Animals ; Anopheles/parasitology ; *Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Malaria/epidemiology/*prevention &amp; control ; Mosquito Control/organization &amp; administration/trends ; Plasmodium ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid14645831, year = {2003}, author = {Hungate, BA and Dukes, JS and Shaw, MR and Luo, Y and Field, CB}, title = {Atmospheric science. Nitrogen and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {302}, number = {5650}, pages = {1512-1513}, doi = {10.1126/science.1091390}, pmid = {14645831}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Carbon/analysis/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Nitrogen/*analysis/metabolism ; Nitrogen Fixation ; Plants/metabolism ; Soil/analysis ; Trees/chemistry/metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid14649991, year = {2003}, author = {Spiesberger, JL}, title = {U.S. Navy sources and receivers for studying acoustic propagation and climate change in the ocean.}, journal = {The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America}, volume = {114}, number = {5}, pages = {2557-2560}, doi = {10.1121/1.1619983}, pmid = {14649991}, issn = {0001-4966}, mesh = {Acoustics/*instrumentation ; *Climate ; Government Programs ; Pacific Ocean ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid14636117, year = {2003}, author = {Smith, KR}, title = {Wealth, poverty and climate change.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {179}, number = {11-12}, pages = {571-572}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.2003.tb05699.x}, pmid = {14636117}, issn = {1326-5377}, mesh = {Environmental Pollution/adverse effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Poverty ; }, abstract = {Rich countries must lead the fight against climate change affecting rich and poor in our global village.}, }
@article {pmid14609142, year = {2003}, author = {Townsend, M and Mahoney, M and Jones, JA and Ball, K and Salmon, J and Finch, CF}, title = {Too hot to trot? Exploring potential links between climate change, physical activity and health.}, journal = {Journal of science and medicine in sport}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {260-265}, doi = {10.1016/s1440-2440(03)80019-1}, pmid = {14609142}, issn = {1440-2440}, mesh = {Australia ; Ecology/methods ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Behavior ; Health Policy/trends ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Motor Activity ; Research/trends ; }, abstract = {Based on an analysis of existing literature, this paper explores the links between climate change, physical activity and health. It highlights the importance of physical activity for health, explores current understandings of factors influencing participation in sport and physical activity, and develops some hypotheses about the ways in which climate change may impact on the factors influencing physical activity and thereby on the level of participation in physical activity. The paper argues that climate change has the potential to be a barrier to participation in physical activity, particularly in areas where temperatures are already relatively high, and that a reduction in physical activity across the population is likely to have detrimental health impacts. The need for research to clarify the nature and extent of the threat posed to physical activity participation is highlighted, as is the need to take into account the direct and indirect costs of any changes or reductions in physical activity in any assessment of the costs of climate change and/or its mitigation.}, }
@article {pmid14605365, year = {2003}, author = {Prospero, JM and Lamb, PJ}, title = {African droughts and dust transport to the Caribbean: climate change implications.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {302}, number = {5647}, pages = {1024-1027}, doi = {10.1126/science.1089915}, pmid = {14605365}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Great quantities of African dust are carried over large areas of the Atlantic and to the Caribbean during much of the year. Measurements made from 1965 to 1998 in Barbados trade winds show large interannual changes that are highly anticorrelated with rainfall in the Soudano-Sahel, a region that has suffered varying degrees of drought since 1970. Regression estimates based on long-term rainfall data suggest that dust concentrations were sharply lower during much of the 20th century before 1970, when rainfall was more normal. Because of the great sensitivity of dust emissions to climate, future changes in climate could result in large changes in emissions from African and other arid regions that, in turn, could lead to impacts on climate over large areas.}, }
@article {pmid14584364, year = {2003}, author = {Sondorp, E and Patel, P}, title = {Climate change, conflict and health.}, journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene}, volume = {97}, number = {2}, pages = {139-140}, doi = {10.1016/s0035-9203(03)90100-3}, pmid = {14584364}, issn = {0035-9203}, mesh = {Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Warfare ; }, abstract = {Both conflict and climate change may produce serious negative health consequences. However, there is insufficient evidence that climate change, e.g. through environmental degradation or fresh water shortages, leads to conflict as is often claimed. Also, current theory on cause of conflict would refute this hypothesis.}, }
@article {pmid14574402, year = {2003}, author = {Lamb, S and Davis, P}, title = {Cenozoic climate change as a possible cause for the rise of the Andes.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {425}, number = {6960}, pages = {792-797}, doi = {10.1038/nature02049}, pmid = {14574402}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Causal links between the rise of a large mountain range and climate have often been considered to work in one direction, with significant uplift provoking climate change. Here we propose a mechanism by which Cenozoic climate change could have caused the rise of the Andes. Based on considerations of the force balance in the South American lithosphere, we suggest that the height of, and tectonics in, the Andes are strongly controlled both by shear stresses along the plate interface in the subduction zone and by buoyancy stress contrasts between the trench and highlands, and shear stresses in the subduction zone depend on the amount of subducted sediments. We propose that the dynamics of subduction and mountain-building in this region are controlled by the processes of erosion and sediment deposition, and ultimately climate. In central South America, climate-controlled sediment starvation would then cause high shear stress, focusing the plate boundary stresses that support the high Andes.}, }
@article {pmid14572073, year = {2003}, author = {Pelley, J}, title = {Climate change undermines recovering lakes.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {37}, number = {19}, pages = {346A-347A}, doi = {10.1021/es032583t}, pmid = {14572073}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {*Acid Rain ; Canada ; Carbon/analysis/metabolism ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Photosynthesis ; Phytoplankton ; Temperature ; Water/chemistry ; Water Movements ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid14570424, year = {2003}, author = {Sauchyn, DJ and Joss, BN and Nyirfa, WN}, title = {Sharing the geo-referenced results of climate change impact research.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {88}, number = {1-3}, pages = {389-397}, pmid = {14570424}, issn = {0167-6369}, mesh = {Climate ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Geographic Information Systems ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Internet ; *Models, Theoretical ; Reference Values ; }, abstract = {The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) has implemented an Internet Map Server (IMS) at the PARC web site (www.parc.ca) to 1) disseminate the geo-referenced results of PARC sponsored research on climate change impacts and adaptation, and 2) address data, information and knowledge management within the PARC network of researchers and partners. PARC facilitates interdisciplinary research on adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the Canadian Prairie Provinces. The web site is intended as a platform for sharing information and encouraging discussion of climate change impacts and adaptation. The IMS enables scientists and stakeholders to apply simple climate change scenarios to geo-referenced biophysical and social data, and dynamically create maps that display the geographic distribution of potential impacts of climate change. With a limited capacity for spatial analysis, most geo-processing and the climate impact modeling is done offline within a GIS environment. The IMS will serve the output from climate impact models, such that the model results can be customized by the web site user and be most readily applied to the planning and analysis of adaptation strategies.}, }
@article {pmid14570423, year = {2003}, author = {Arnott, SE and Keller, B and Dillon, PJ and Yan, N and Paterson, M and Findlay, D}, title = {Using temporal coherence to determine the response to climate change in Boreal Shield lakes.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {88}, number = {1-3}, pages = {365-388}, pmid = {14570423}, issn = {0167-6369}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada ; *Climate ; Environmental Monitoring/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; *Phytoplankton ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Water ; *Zooplankton ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to have important impacts on aquatic ecosystems. On the Boreal Shield, mean annual air temperatures are expected to increase 2 to 4 degrees C over the next 50 years. An important challenge is to predict how changes in climate and climate variability will impact natural systems so that sustainable management policies can be implemented. To predict responses to complex ecosystem changes associated with climate change, we used long-term biotic databases to evaluate how important elements of the biota in Boreal Shield lakes have responded to past fluctuations in climate. Our long-term records span a two decade period where there have been unusually cold years and unusually warm years. We used coherence analyses to test for regionally operating controls on climate, water temperature, pH, and plankton richness and abundance in three regions across Ontario: the Experimental Lakes Area, Sudbury, and Dorset. Inter-annual variation in air temperature was similar among regions, but there was a weak relationship among regions for precipitation. While air temperature was closely related to lake surface temperatures in each of the regions, there were weak relationships between lake surface temperature and richness or abundance of the plankton. However, inter-annual changes in lake chemistry (i.e., pH) were correlated with some biotic variables. In some lakes in Sudbury and Dorset, pH was dependent on extreme events. For example, El Nino related droughts resulted in acidification pulses in some lakes that influenced phytoplankton and zooplankton richness. These results suggest that there can be strong heterogeneity in lake ecosystem responses within and across regions.}, }
@article {pmid14563996, year = {2003}, author = {Bradley, RS and Hughes, MK and Diaz, HF}, title = {Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {302}, number = {5644}, pages = {404-405}, doi = {10.1126/science.1090372}, pmid = {14563996}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.}, }
@article {pmid14561301, year = {2003}, author = {Williams, SE and Bolitho, EE and Fox, S}, title = {Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {270}, number = {1527}, pages = {1887-1892}, pmid = {14561301}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Australia ; Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; *Trees ; *Tropical Climate ; Vertebrates/physiology ; }, abstract = {It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.}, }
@article {pmid14558909, year = {2003}, author = {Srokosz, MA}, title = {Rapid climate change: scientific challenges and the new NERC programme.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {361}, number = {1810}, pages = {2061-2078}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2003.1243}, pmid = {14558909}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate ; Cold Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Models, Theoretical ; Organizational Objectives ; Research/*organization &amp; administration ; Research Design ; United Kingdom ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {In this paper the scientific challenges of observing, modelling, understanding and predicting rapid changes in climate are discussed, with a specific focus on the role of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The palaeo and present-day observational and modelling studies being carried out to meet these challenges, under the aegis of a new NERC Rapid Climate Change thematic programme (RAPID), are outlined. In particular, the paper describes the work being done to monitor changes in the meridional overturning circulation of the North Atlantic. The paper concludes with some speculative comments about potential mechanisms for rapid changes.}, }
@article {pmid14558908, year = {2003}, author = {Perrings, C}, title = {The economics of abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {361}, number = {1810}, pages = {2043-57; discussion 2058-9}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2003.1242}, pmid = {14558908}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; *Climate ; Cost-Benefit Analysis/economics/methods ; Disasters/*economics ; Earth, Planet ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Economic ; *Models, Statistical ; Risk Management/*economics/methods ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.}, }
@article {pmid14558906, year = {2003}, author = {Hulme, M}, title = {Abrupt climate change: can society cope?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {361}, number = {1810}, pages = {2001-19; discussion 2019-21}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2003.1239}, pmid = {14558906}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Psychological ; Atlantic Ocean ; *Climate ; Disasters ; *Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; *Water Movements ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change - in the sense referred to here - imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation.}, }
@article {pmid14558904, year = {2003}, author = {Wood, RA and Vellinga, M and Thorpe, R}, title = {Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {361}, number = {1810}, pages = {1961-74; discussion 1974-5}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2003.1245}, pmid = {14558904}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Earth, Planet ; Evolution, Planetary ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rheology/*methods ; Temperature ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in global climate. Theoretical and palaeoclimatic evidence points to the possibility of rapid changes in the strength of the THC, including a possible quasi-permanent shutdown. The climatic impacts of such a shutdown would be severe, including a cooling throughout the Northern Hemisphere, which in some regions is greater in magnitude than the changes expected from global warming in the next 50 years. Other climatic impacts would likely include a severe alteration of rainfall patterns in the tropics, the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Modelling the future behaviour of the THC focuses on two key questions. (i) Is a gradual weakening of the THC likely in response to global warming, and if so by how much? (ii) Are there thresholds beyond which rapid or irreversible changes in the THC are likely? Most projections of the response of the THC to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest a gradual weakening over the twenty-first century. However, there is a wide variation between different models over the size of the weakening. Rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability (but high-impact) outcome; however, some climate models of intermediate complexity do show the possibility of such events. The question of the future of the THC is beset with conceptual, modelling and observational uncertainties, but some current and planned projects show promise to make substantial progress in tackling these uncertainties in future.}, }
@article {pmid14558902, year = {2003}, author = {Gildor, H and Tziperman, E}, title = {Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {361}, number = {1810}, pages = {1935-42; discussion 1942-4}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2003.1244}, pmid = {14558902}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Climate ; *Cold Climate ; Evolution, Planetary ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Ice ; Oceans and Seas ; *Periodicity ; *Seawater ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {We propose that past abrupt climate changes were probably a result of rapid and extensive variations in sea-ice cover. We explain why this seems a perhaps more likely explanation than a purely thermohaline circulation mechanism. We emphasize that because of the significant influence of sea ice on the climate system, it seems that high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing high-resolution (in space and time) sea-ice extent for past climate-change events. If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past abrupt climate-change events, it seems less likely that such dramatic abrupt changes will occur due to global warming, when extensive sea-ice cover will not be present.}, }
@article {pmid14558900, year = {2003}, author = {Jenkyns, HC}, title = {Evidence for rapid climate change in the Mesozoic-Palaeogene greenhouse world.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {361}, number = {1810}, pages = {1885-916; discussion 1916}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2003.1240}, pmid = {14558900}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Carbon/*analysis ; *Climate ; *Evolution, Planetary ; Geologic Sediments/*analysis ; Greenhouse Effect ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen/*analysis ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {The best-documented example of rapid climate change that characterized the so-called 'greenhouse world' took place at the time of the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary: introduction of isotopically light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, accompanied by global warming of 5-8 degrees C across a range of latitudes, took place over a few thousand years. Dissociation, release and oxidation of gas hydrates from continental-margin sites and the consequent rapid global warming from the input of greenhouses gases are generally credited with causing the abrupt negative excursions in carbon- and oxygen-isotope ratios. The isotopic anomalies, as recorded in foraminifera, propagated downwards from the shallowest levels of the ocean, implying that considerable quantities of methane survived upward transit through the water column to oxidize in the atmosphere. In the Mesozoic Era, a number of similar events have been recognized, of which those at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary, in the early Toarcian (Jurassic) and in the early Aptian (Cretaceous) currently carry the best documentation for dramatic rises in temperature. In these three examples, and in other less well-documented cases, the lack of a definitive time-scale for the intervals in question hinders calculation of the rate of environmental change. However, comparison with the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) suggests that these older examples could have been similarly rapid. In both the early Toarcian and early Aptian cases, the negative carbon-isotope excursion precedes global excess carbon burial across a range of marine environments, a phenomenon that defines these intervals as oceanic anoxic events (OAEs). Osmium-isotope ratios ((187)Os/(188)Os) for both the early Toarcian OAE and the PETM show an excursion to more radiogenic values, demonstrating an increase in weathering and erosion of continental crust consonant with elevated temperatures. The more highly buffered strontium-isotope system ((87)Sr/(86)Sr) also shows relatively more radiogenic signatures during the early Toarcian OAE, but the early Aptian and Cenomanian-Turonian OAEs show the reverse effect, implying that increased rates of sea-floor spreading and hydrothermal activity dominated over continental weathering in governing sea-water chemistry. The Cretaceous climatic optimum (late Cenomanian to mid Turonian) also shows evidence for abrupt cooling episodes characterized by episodic invasion of boreal faunas into temperate and subtropical regions and changes in terrestrial vegetation; drawdown of CO(2) related to massive marine carbon burial (OAE) may be implicated here. The absence of a pronounced negative carbon-isotope excursion preceding the Cenomanian-Turonian OAE indicates that methane release is not necessarily connected to global deposition of marine organic carbon, but relative thermal maxima are common to all OAEs. 'Cold snaps' have also been identified from the Mesozoic record but their duration, causes and effects are poorly documented.}, }
@article {pmid14551433, year = {2003}, author = {Gillett, NP and Thompson, DW}, title = {Simulation of recent southern hemisphere climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {302}, number = {5643}, pages = {273-275}, doi = {10.1126/science.1087440}, pmid = {14551433}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Recent observations indicate that climate change over the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by a strengthening of the circumpolar westerly flow that extends from the surface to the stratosphere. Here we demonstrate that the seasonality, structure, and amplitude of the observed climate trends are simulated in a state-of-the-art atmospheric model run with high vertical resolution that is forced solely by prescribed stratospheric ozone depletion. The results provide evidence that anthropogenic emissions of ozonedepleting gases have had a distinct impact on climate not only at stratospheric levels but at Earth's surface as well.}, }
@article {pmid14551423, year = {2003}, author = {Karoly, DJ}, title = {Atmospheric science. Ozone and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {302}, number = {5643}, pages = {236-237}, doi = {10.1126/science.1090851}, pmid = {14551423}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Over the past 40 years, Southern Hemisphere circumpolar westerly winds have strengthened. In his Perspective, Karoly highlights the modeling study by Gillett and Thompson, who show that these observed Southern Hemisphere climate changes in spring and summer can be explained as a response to stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica. The observed strengthening of the circumpolar westerlies in winter is less likely to be the response to springtime Antarctic ozone depletion, but may be due in part to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Understanding the different causes and practical impacts of these trends in Southern Hemisphere circulation is an important next step for climate researchers.}, }
@article {pmid14551409, year = {2003}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Warming Indian Ocean wringing moisture from the Sahel.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {302}, number = {5643}, pages = {210-211}, doi = {10.1126/science.302.5643.210a}, pmid = {14551409}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid14519854, year = {2003}, author = {Cotton, PA}, title = {Avian migration phenology and global climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {100}, number = {21}, pages = {12219-12222}, pmid = {14519854}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; Animal Migration/*physiology ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Linear Models ; Seasons ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {There is mounting evidence that global climate change has extended growing seasons, changed distribution patterns, and altered the phenology of flowering, breeding, and migration. For migratory birds, the timing of arrival on breeding territories and over-wintering grounds is a key determinant of reproductive success, survivorship, and fitness. But we know little of the factors controlling earlier passage in long-distance migrants. Over the past 30 years in Oxfordshire, U.K., the average arrival and departure dates of 20 migrant bird species have both advanced by 8 days; consequently, the overall residence time in Oxfordshire has remained unchanged. The timing of arrival has advanced in relation to increasing winter temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa, whereas the timing of departure has advanced after elevated summer temperatures in Oxfordshire. This finding demonstrates that migratory phenology is quite likely to be affected by global climate change and links events in tropical winter quarters with those in temperate breeding areas.}, }
@article {pmid14500914, year = {2003}, author = {Burns, CE and Johnston, KM and Schmitz, OJ}, title = {Global climate change and mammalian species diversity in U.S. national parks.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {100}, number = {20}, pages = {11474-11477}, pmid = {14500914}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Mammals ; Maps as Topic ; *Species Specificity ; United States ; }, abstract = {National parks and bioreserves are key conservation tools used to protect species and their habitats within the confines of fixed political boundaries. This inflexibility may be their "Achilles' heel" as conservation tools in the face of emerging global-scale environmental problems such as climate change. Global climate change, brought about by rising levels of greenhouse gases, threatens to alter the geographic distribution of many habitats and their component species. With these changes comes great uncertainty about the future ability of parks and protected areas to meet their conservation mandates. We report here on an analysis aimed at assessing the extent of mammalian species turnover that may be experienced in eight selected U.S. national parks if climate change causes mammalian species within the continental U.S. to relocate to new geographic locations. Due to species losses of up to 20% and drastic influxes of new species, national parks are not likely to meet their mandate of protecting current biodiversity within park boundaries. This approach represents a conservative prognosis. As species assemblages change, new interactions between species may lead to less predictable indirect effects of climate change, increasing the toll beyond that found in this study.}, }
@article {pmid14499556, year = {2003}, author = {Wood, R and Widdows, J}, title = {Modelling intertidal sediment transport for nutrient change and climate change scenarios.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {314-316}, number = {}, pages = {637-649}, doi = {10.1016/s0048-9697(03)00088-3}, pmid = {14499556}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Chlorophyll/analysis ; *Climate ; Forecasting ; *Geologic Sediments ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {A model of intertidal sediment transport, including effects of bioturbation and biostabilisation, was applied to two transects on the east coast of England: Leverton (within the Wash) and Skeffling (in the Humber Estuary). The physical and biological parameters were chosen to represent four 1-year scenarios: a baseline year (1995), the same year but with estuarine nitrate inputs reduced by 50% and by 16%, and a year with climate change effects estimated for 2050. The changes in nitrate supply can potentially change microphytobenthos numbers within the surface sediment, which will then affect erodibility. The model results show a range of behaviour determined by bathymetry, external forcing and biotic state. When intertidal sediment transport is dominated by external sediment supply, the model produces highest deposition at the most offshore point, and there is greatest deposition in the winter and spring, when offshore sediment concentrations are highest. When intertidal processes dominate intertidal sediment transport, there is a peak of deposition at the high-shore level and erosion at mid-tide levels. The greatest deposition now occurs in winter and summer, when low chlorophyll levels mean that the sediment is most erodible. The Skeffling transect was dominated by intertidal processes for the baseline scenario and with a 16% reduction in nitrate. Under the climate change (warm winter) scenario, the Skeffling transect was dominated by external sediment supply. The scenario with 50% reduction in nitrate gave intermediate behaviour at Skeffling (intertidally driven during the winter and summer, and governed by offshore sediment supply during spring and autumn). The Leverton transect was dominated by offshore sediment supply for all the scenarios.}, }
@article {pmid12970572, year = {2003}, author = {Vinnikov, KY and Grody, NC}, title = {Global warming trend of mean tropospheric temperature observed by satellites.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {302}, number = {5643}, pages = {269-272}, doi = {10.1126/science.1087910}, pmid = {12970572}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {We have analyzed the global tropospheric temperature for 1978 to 2002 with the use of passive microwave sounding data from the NOAA series of polar orbiters and the Earth Observing System Aqua satellite. To accurately retrieve the climatic trend, we combined the satellite data with an analytic model of temperature that contains three different time scales: a linear trend and functions that define the seasonal and diurnal cycles. Our analysis shows a trend of +0.22 degrees to 0.26 degrees C per 10 years, consistent with the global warming trend derived from surface meteorological stations.}, }
@article {pmid12968140, year = {2003}, author = {Langenberg, H}, title = {Global effort to plot climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {425}, number = {6954}, pages = {112}, doi = {10.1038/425112b}, pmid = {12968140}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid12967169, year = {2003}, author = {Estrada-Peña, A}, title = {Climate change decreases habitat suitability for some tick species (Acari: Ixodidae) in South Africa.}, journal = {The Onderstepoort journal of veterinary research}, volume = {70}, number = {2}, pages = {79-93}, pmid = {12967169}, issn = {0030-2465}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; Satellite Communications ; Seasons ; South Africa ; Temperature ; Ticks/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Models predicting current habitat availability for four prominent tick species in Africa (Boophilus decoloratus, Amblyomma hebraeum, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus and Hyalomma truncatum) were constructed using remotely sensed information about abiotic variables and a point-to-point similarity metric. Year-to-year variations in the forecasted habitat suitability over the period 1983-2000 show a clear decrease in habitat availability, which is attributed primarily to increasing temperature in the region over this period. Climate variables were projected to the year 2015 using Fourier series analysis of the decadal abiotic data. The simulations show a trend toward the destruction of the habitats of the four tick species. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was developed to probe the changes in the habitat suitability in response to variations in temperature, vegetation availability and water vapour deficit. Four basic scenarios were studied: increasing or decreasing the temperature 1 or 2 degrees C together with correlated variations in the other abiotic variables. A decrease in temperature was predicted to promote habitat gain for every species except H. truncatum, while an increase of 1 degrees C was forecast to sustain a small but positive response in A. hebraeum and B. decoloratus. Increasing the temperature by 2 degrees C was forecast to have damaging effects on the habitat structure of all four species. The effect of climate warming on the habitat range of these ticks is considered in the light of economically sound control measures over an ecological background.}, }
@article {pmid12965011, year = {2003}, author = {Jenni, L and Kéry, M}, title = {Timing of autumn bird migration under climate change: advances in long-distance migrants, delays in short-distance migrants.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {270}, number = {1523}, pages = {1467-1471}, pmid = {12965011}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Chronobiology Phenomena ; *Climate ; *Emigration and Immigration ; Europe ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Seasons ; Sexual Behavior, Animal ; }, abstract = {As a response to increasing spring temperature in temperate regions in recent years, populations of many plant and animal species, including migratory birds, have advanced the seasonal start of their reproduction or growth. However, the effects of climate changes on subsequent events of the annual cycle remain poorly understood. We investigated long-term changes in the timing of autumn migration in birds, a key event in the annual cycle limiting the reproductive period. Using data spanning a 42-year period, we analysed long-term changes in the passage of 65 species of migratory birds through Western Europe. The autumn passage of migrants wintering south of the Sahara has advanced in recent years, presumably as a result of selection pressure to cross the Sahel before its seasonal dry period. In contrast, migrants wintering north of the Sahara have delayed autumn passage. In addition, species with a variable rather than a fixed number of broods per year have delayed passage, possibly because they are free to attempt more broods. Recent climate changes seem to have a simple unidirectional effect on the seasonal onset of reproduction, but complex and opposing effects on the timing of subsequent events in the annual cycle, depending on the ecology and life history of a species. This complicates predictions of overall effects of global warming on avian communities.}, }
@article {pmid12956596, year = {2003}, author = {Tao, F and Yokozawa, M and Hayashi, Y and Lin, E}, title = {Terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {32}, number = {4}, pages = {295-301}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-32.4.295}, pmid = {12956596}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; Water Supply/*standards ; }, abstract = {The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.}, }
@article {pmid12955126, year = {2003}, author = {Mix, AC}, title = {Climate change: chilled out in the ice-age Atlantic.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {425}, number = {6953}, pages = {32-33}, doi = {10.1038/425032a}, pmid = {12955126}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; *Cold Climate ; Fossils ; *Ice ; *Models, Theoretical ; Plankton/physiology ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid12924138, year = {2003}, author = {Wu, Z}, title = {[Assessment of eco-climatic suitability and climate change impacts of/on broad-leaved Korean pine forest in northeast China].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {14}, number = {5}, pages = {771-775}, pmid = {12924138}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/pharmacology ; *Climate ; *Ecology ; Pinus/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Based on growing degree days (GDD) and potential evapotranspiration ratio (PER), the temperature-water effect function (f(GDD, PER)) was established and the assessment of eco-climatic suitability and climate change impacts of/on broadleaved Korean pine forests in Northeast China was studied. The results showed that the present distribution area of broad-leaved Korean pine forests in Northeast China was 39.99 km2, which included the optimum distribution area 7.13 km2, suitable area 12.27 km2, and marginal area 20.59 km2. Under GISS and OSU climate change scenarios, the climate of Northeast China changed to warming and dry in some degree. Under this tendency, the distribution area of broad-leaved Korean pine forests would be reduced, and the eco-climatic suitability would be declined.}, }
@article {pmid12920289, year = {2003}, author = {Hughes, TP and Baird, AH and Bellwood, DR and Card, M and Connolly, SR and Folke, C and Grosberg, R and Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Jackson, JB and Kleypas, J and Lough, JM and Marshall, P and Nyström, M and Palumbi, SR and Pandolfi, JM and Rosen, B and Roughgarden, J}, title = {Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {301}, number = {5635}, pages = {929-933}, doi = {10.1126/science.1085046}, pmid = {12920289}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Biological ; Animals ; Anthozoa/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Fishes ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.}, }
@article {pmid12920285, year = {2003}, author = {Clarke, G and Leverington, D and Teller, J and Dyke, A}, title = {Paleoclimate. Superlakes, megafloods, and abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {301}, number = {5635}, pages = {922-923}, doi = {10.1126/science.1085921}, pmid = {12920285}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid12917682, year = {2003}, author = {O'Reilly, CM and Alin, SR and Plisnier, PD and Cohen, AS and McKee, BA}, title = {Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {424}, number = {6950}, pages = {766-768}, doi = {10.1038/nature01833}, pmid = {12917682}, issn = {1476-4687}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern ; Animals ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/classification/*physiology ; Food Chain ; *Fresh Water ; Geologic Sediments ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Although the effects of climate warming on the chemical and physical properties of lakes have been documented, biotic and ecosystem-scale responses to climate change have been only estimated or predicted by manipulations and models. Here we present evidence that climate warming is diminishing productivity in Lake Tanganyika, East Africa. This lake has historically supported a highly productive pelagic fishery that currently provides 25-40% of the animal protein supply for the populations of the surrounding countries. In parallel with regional warming patterns since the beginning of the twentieth century, a rise in surface-water temperature has increased the stability of the water column. A regional decrease in wind velocity has contributed to reduced mixing, decreasing deep-water nutrient upwelling and entrainment into surface waters. Carbon isotope records in sediment cores suggest that primary productivity may have decreased by about 20%, implying a roughly 30% decrease in fish yields. Our study provides evidence that the impact of regional effects of global climate change on aquatic ecosystem functions and services can be larger than that of local anthropogenic activity or overfishing.}, }
@article {pmid12906876, year = {2003}, author = {Peterson, AT and Shaw, J}, title = {Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Southern Brazil: ecological niche models, predicted geographic distributions, and climate change effects.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology}, volume = {33}, number = {9}, pages = {919-931}, doi = {10.1016/s0020-7519(03)00094-8}, pmid = {12906876}, issn = {0020-7519}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animals ; Brazil ; Climate ; Disease Vectors ; Ecosystem ; Humans ; *Leishmania braziliensis ; Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/parasitology/*transmission ; Probability ; Psychodidae/*parasitology ; Topography, Medical ; }, abstract = {Geographic and ecological distributions of three Lutzomyia sand flies that are cutaneous leishmaniasis vectors in South America were analysed using ecological niche modelling. This new tool provides a large-scale perspective on species' geographic distributions, ecological and historical factors determining them, and their potential for change with expected environmental changes. As a first step, the ability of this technique to predict geographic distributions of the three species was tested statistically using two subsampling techniques: a random-selection technique that simulates 50% data density, and a quadrant-based technique that challenges the method to predict into broad unsampled regions. Predictivity under both test schemes was highly statistically significant. Visualisation of ecological niches provided insights into the ecological basis for distributional differences among species. Projections of potential geographic distributions across scenarios of global climate change suggested that only Lutzomyia whitmani is likely to be experiencing dramatic improvements in conditions in south-eastern Brazil, where cutaneous leishmaniasis appears to be re-emerging; Lutzomyia intermedia and Lutzomyia migonei may be seeing more subtle improvements in climatic conditions, but the implications are not straightforward. More generally, this technique offers the possibility of new views into the distributional ecology of disease, vector, and reservoir species.}, }
@article {pmid12893922, year = {2003}, author = {Singer, SF}, title = {Editor bias on climate change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {301}, number = {5633}, pages = {595-6; author reply 595-6}, doi = {10.1126/science.301.5633.595b}, pmid = {12893922}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Politics ; Public Policy ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid12884530, year = {2003}, author = {Appell, D}, title = {Hot words. A claim of nonhuman-induced global warming sparks debate.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {289}, number = {2}, pages = {20-22}, pmid = {12884530}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid12881558, year = {2003}, author = {Hoskins, BJ}, title = {Atmospheric science. Climate change at cruising altitude?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {301}, number = {5632}, pages = {469-470}, doi = {10.1126/science.1086051}, pmid = {12881558}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid12881557, year = {2003}, author = {Livingstone, DA}, title = {Ecology. Global climate change strikes a tropical lake.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {301}, number = {5632}, pages = {468-469}, doi = {10.1126/science.1088633}, pmid = {12881557}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Africa South of the Sahara ; Animals ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Diatoms/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Fishes/physiology ; *Fresh Water/chemistry ; Greenhouse Effect ; Mollusca/physiology ; Photosynthesis ; Plankton/physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; *Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid12843385, year = {2003}, author = {Stillman, JH}, title = {Acclimation capacity underlies susceptibility to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {301}, number = {5629}, pages = {65}, doi = {10.1126/science.1083073}, pmid = {12843385}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Animals ; Anomura/*physiology ; Biological Evolution ; California ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Environment ; Heart/physiology ; Heart Rate ; Mexico ; Oregon ; Pacific Ocean ; Phylogeny ; Species Specificity ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid12836847, year = {2003}, author = {Bronstert, A}, title = {Floods and climate change: interactions and impacts.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {545-557}, doi = {10.1111/1539-6924.00335}, pmid = {12836847}, issn = {0272-4332}, abstract = {Whether the floods experienced during the last decade in Germany and in other European countries are triggered or worsened by human activities has been the subject of a great deal of debate. Possible anthropogenic activities leading to increased flood risk include river regulation measures, intensified land use and forestry, and emissions of greenhouse gases causing a change in the global climate. This article discusses the latter by reviewing the existing knowledge on the subject. First, the relevance, capabilities, and limitations of climate models for the simulation and analysis of flood risk under aspects of the anthropogenic climate change are described. Special consideration is given here to differences between the "typical" spatial scale of climate models and hydrological flood models. Second, observations of trends in climate variables relevant for river flooding issues are summarized. Special emphasis is put on the Rhine and other German catchment areas. Third, the possibilities of modeling the different parts of the "cascade of flood risk" are summarized, introducing the special features of meteorological, hydrological, and river hydraulic models.}, }
@article {pmid12831006, year = {2003}, author = {Erickson, BE}, title = {New NGO to help save lakes from climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {37}, number = {11}, pages = {208A-209A}, doi = {10.1021/es032482v}, pmid = {12831006}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Animals ; Biomarkers/analysis ; Data Collection ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fishes ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; Population Dynamics ; *Private Sector ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid12829751, year = {2003}, author = {Stokstad, E}, title = {Environmental indicators. EPA report takes heat for climate change edits.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {300}, number = {5628}, pages = {2013}, doi = {10.1126/science.300.5628.2013a}, pmid = {12829751}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {*Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Environment ; Health ; Humans ; United States ; *United States Environmental Protection Agency ; }, }
@article {pmid12814955, year = {2003}, author = {Sanz-Elorza, M and Dana, ED and González, A and Sobrino, E}, title = {Changes in the high-mountain vegetation of the Central Iberian Peninsula as a probable sign of global warming.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {92}, number = {2}, pages = {273-280}, pmid = {12814955}, issn = {0305-7364}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Plant Development ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Spain ; }, abstract = {Aerial images of the high summits of the Spanish Central Range reveal significant changes in vegetation over the period 1957 to 1991. These changes include the replacement of high-mountain grassland communities dominated by Festuca aragonensis, typical of the Cryoro-Mediterranean belt, by shrub patches of Juniperus communis ssp. alpina and Cytisus oromediterraneus from lower altitudes (Oro-Mediterranean belt). Climatic data indicate a shift towards warmer conditions in this mountainous region since the 1940s, with the shift being particularly marked from 1960. Changes include significantly higher minimum and maximum temperatures, fewer days with snow cover and a redistribution of monthly rainfall. Total yearly precipitation showed no significant variation. There were no marked changes in land use during the time frame considered, although there were minor changes in grazing species in the 19th century. It is hypothesized that the advance of woody species into higher altitudes is probably related to climate change, which could have acted in conjunction with discrete variations in landscape management. The pronounced changes observed in the plant communities of the area reflect the susceptibility of high-mountain Mediterranean species to environmental change.}, }
@article {pmid12812738, year = {2003}, author = {Hejzlar, J and Dubrovský, M and Buchtele, J and Růzicka, M}, title = {The apparent and potential effects of climate change on the inferred concentration of dissolved organic matter in a temperate stream (the Malse River, South Bohemia).}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {310}, number = {1-3}, pages = {143-152}, doi = {10.1016/S0048-9697(02)00634-4}, pmid = {12812738}, issn = {0048-9697}, abstract = {Long-term and seasonal changes in concentration of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and their possible drivers were evaluated for an upland stream in central Europe during 1969-2000. Two periods have been detected within this data set-years with decreased DOM until the middle of 1980s and then years with increased DOM until 2000. Temperature, hydrological regime of runoff from the catchment (namely the amount of interflow), and changes in atmospheric deposition of acidity coincided with the variations in DOM concentrations. The analysis of single runoff events confirmed the relation between the export of increased DOM concentrations from the catchment and interflow. A multiple linear regression model based on monthly averages of temperature and interflow explained 67% of DOM variability. This model suggested a 7% increase in DOM concentration under the scenarios of possible future climate change related to doubled CO(2) concentration in the atmosphere. The scenarios were based on results of several global circulation models.}, }
@article {pmid12806101, year = {2003}, author = {Keller, CF}, title = {Global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications. A review of the current state-of-the-controversy.}, journal = {TheScientificWorldJournal}, volume = {3}, number = {}, pages = {357-411}, doi = {10.1100/tsw.2003.26}, pmid = {12806101}, issn = {1537-744X}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Policy ; *Records ; *Solar Activity ; }, abstract = {Global warming and attendant climate change have been controversial for at least a decade. This is largely because of its societal implications. With the recent publication of the Third Assessment Report of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change there has been renewed interest and controversy about how certain the scientific community is of its conclusions: that humans are influencing the climate and that global temperatures will continue to rise rapidly in this century. This review attempts to update what is known and in particular what advances have been made in the past 5 years or so. It does not attempt to be comprehensive. Rather it focuses on the most controversial issues, which are actually few in number. They are: Is the surface temperature record accurate or is it biased by heat from cities, etc.?, Is that record significantly different from past warmings such as the Medieval Warming Period?, Is not the sun's increasing activity the cause of most of the warming?, Can we model climate and predict its future, or is it just too complex and chaotic?, Are there any other changes in climate other than warming, and can they be attributed to the warming? Despite continued uncertainties, the review finds affirmative answers to these questions. Of particular interest are advances that seem to explain why satellites do not see as much warming as surface instruments, how we are getting a good idea of recent paleoclimates, and why the 20th century temperature record was so complex. It makes the point that in each area new information could come to light that would change our thinking on the quantitative magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming, but it is unlikely to alter the basic conclusions. Finally, there is a very brief discussion of the societal policy response to the scientific message, and the author comments on his 2-year email discussions with many of the world's most outspoken critics of the anthropogenic warming hypothesis.}, }
@article {pmid12805529, year = {2003}, author = {Lackner, KS}, title = {Climate change. A guide to CO2 sequestration.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {300}, number = {5626}, pages = {1677-1678}, doi = {10.1126/science.1079033}, pmid = {12805529}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid12804262, year = {2002}, author = {Poff, NL}, title = {Ecological response to and management of increased flooding caused by climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {360}, number = {1796}, pages = {1497-1510}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2002.1012}, pmid = {12804262}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Climate ; Disaster Planning/methods ; *Disasters ; *Ecosystem ; *Fresh Water ; Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Risk Factors ; Risk Management/methods ; United States ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {River channels and their flood plains are among the most naturally dynamic ecosystems on earth, in large part due to periodic flooding. The components of a river's natural flood regime (magnitude, frequency, duration and timing of peak flows) interact to maintain great habitat heterogeneity and to promote high species diversity and ecosystem productivity. Flood regimes vary within and among rivers, depending on catchment size, geology and regional hydroclimatology. Geographic variation in contemporary flood regimes results in river-to-river variation in ecosystem structure, and therefore in potential river ecosystem response to increased future flooding. The greater the deviation in flood regime from contemporary or recent historical conditions, the greater the expected ecological alteration. Ecological response will also depend on how extensively humans have altered natural river dynamics through land-use practices. Examples of human-caused changes in flood regime (e.g. urbanization, agricultural practices) provide analogues to explore the ecological implications of region-specific climate change. In many settings where humans have severely modified rivers (e.g. through leveeing), more frequent larger floods will work to re-establish connections with severed flood-plain and riparian wetlands in human-dominated river valleys. Developing and implementing non-structural flood-management policies based on ecological principles can benefit river ecosystems, as well as human society.}, }
@article {pmid12804251, year = {2002}, author = {Senior, CA and Jones, RG and Lowe, JA and Durman, CF and Hudson, D}, title = {Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {360}, number = {1796}, pages = {1301-1311}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2002.1001}, pmid = {12804251}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; Disasters ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; *Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; *Rain ; *Seawater ; South Africa ; Statistics as Topic ; United Kingdom ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.}, }
@article {pmid12802305, year = {2003}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Rapid climate change: Gas leak!.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {423}, number = {6941}, pages = {681-682}, doi = {10.1038/423681a}, pmid = {12802305}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/chemistry ; Eukaryota/metabolism ; Geologic Sediments/chemistry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/*chemistry/*isolation &amp; purification ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen/chemistry ; Phytoplankton/metabolism ; }, }
@article {pmid12793676, year = {2003}, author = {Beuhler, M}, title = {Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {47}, number = {7-8}, pages = {165-168}, pmid = {12793676}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {California ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Disasters ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Rain ; Temperature ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.}, }
@article {pmid12793668, year = {2003}, author = {Maheepala, S and Perera, C}, title = {Climate change and reliability of urban water supply.}, journal = {Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research}, volume = {47}, number = {7-8}, pages = {101-108}, pmid = {12793668}, issn = {0273-1223}, mesh = {Cities ; *Climate ; Forecasting ; *Models, Statistical ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This paper describes a probability-based method for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban water supply systems. Specifically, the assessment method uses probability distributions to place a confidence level on the plausible values of response variables. The Benalla water supply system has been used to demonstrate applicability of the proposed assessment method. For the application, impact of the 2030 climate change scenarios on streamflows and system yield has been examined. The preliminary results have demonstrated that the proposed assessment method can provide valuable insights into the impact of climate change on water supply systems, allowing it to be incorporated into planning decisions.}, }
@article {pmid12791974, year = {2003}, author = {Broecker, WS}, title = {Does the trigger for abrupt climate change reside in the ocean or in the atmosphere?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {300}, number = {5625}, pages = {1519-1522}, doi = {10.1126/science.1083797}, pmid = {12791974}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Two hypotheses have been put forward to explain the large and abrupt climate changes that punctuated glacial time. One attributes such changes to reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation and the other to changes in tropical atmosphere-ocean dynamics. In an attempt to distinguish between these hypotheses, two lines of evidence are examined. The first involves the timing of the freshwater injections to the northern Atlantic that have been suggested as triggers for the global impacts associated with the Younger Dryas and Heinrich events. The second has to do with evidence for precursory events associated with the Heinrich ice-rafted debris layers in the northern Atlantic and with the abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger warmings recorded in the Santa Barbara Basin.}, }
@article {pmid12769458, year = {2003}, author = {Réale, D and McAdam, AG and Boutin, S and Berteaux, D}, title = {Genetic and plastic responses of a northern mammal to climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {270}, number = {1515}, pages = {591-596}, pmid = {12769458}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; Female ; Food ; Phenotype ; Reproduction ; Sciuridae/*genetics/*physiology ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; Yukon Territory ; }, abstract = {Climate change is predicted to be most severe in northern regions and there has been much interest in to what extent organisms can cope with these changes through phenotypic plasticity or microevolutionary processes. A red squirrel population in the southwest Yukon, Canada, faced with increasing spring temperatures and food supply has advanced the timing of breeding by 18 days over the last 10 years (6 days per generation). Longitudinal analysis of females breeding in multiple years suggests that much of this change in parturition date can be explained by a plastic response to increased food abundance (3.7 days per generation). Significant changes in breeding values (0.8 days per generation), were in concordance with predictions from the breeder's equation (0.6 days per generation), and indicated that an evolutionary response to strong selection favouring earlier breeders also contributed to the observed advancement of this heritable trait. The timing of breeding in this population of squirrels, therefore, has advanced as a result of both phenotypic changes within generations, and genetic changes among generations in response to a rapidly changing environment.}, }
@article {pmid12750971, year = {2003}, author = {Dessai, S}, title = {Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part II. An assessment of the potential impacts of climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {48}, number = {1}, pages = {37-44}, pmid = {12750971}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Bayes Theorem ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Models, Theoretical ; Portugal/epidemiology ; *Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Seasons ; Urban Population ; }, abstract = {Global environmental change, in particular climate change, will have adverse effects on public health. The increased frequency/intensity of heat waves is expected to increase heat-related mortality and illness. To quantify the climatic risks of heat-related mortality in Lisbon an empirical-statistical model was developed in Part I, based on the climate-mortality relationship of the summer months of 1980-1998. In Part II, scenarios of climate and population change are applied to the model to assess the potential impacts on public health in the 2020s and 2050s, in terms of crude heat-related mortality rates. Two regional climate models (RCMs) were used and different assumptions about seasonality, acclimatisation and the estimation of excess deaths were made in order to represent uncertainty explicitly. An exploratory Bayesian analysis was used to investigate the sensitivity of the result to input assumptions. Annual heat-related death rates are estimated to increase from between 5.4 and 6 (per 100,000) for 1980-1998 to between 5.8 and 15.1 for the 2020s. By the 2050s, the potential increase ranges from 7.3 to 35.6. The burden of deaths is decreased if acclimatisation is factored in. Through a Bayesian analysis it is shown that, for the tested variables, future heat-related mortality is most sensitive to the choice of RCM and least to the method of calculating the excess deaths.}, }
@article {pmid12733791, year = {2003}, author = {Paerl, HW and Steppe, TF and Buchan, KC and Potts, M}, title = {Hypersaline cyanobacterial mats as indicators of elevated tropical hurricane activity and associated climate change.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {32}, number = {2}, pages = {87-90}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-32.2.87}, pmid = {12733791}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate ; *Cyanobacteria ; *Disasters ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; Population Dynamics ; Sodium Chloride ; }, abstract = {The Atlantic hurricanes of 1999 caused widespread environmental damage throughout the Caribbean and US mid-Atlantic coastal regions. However, these storms also proved beneficial to certain microbial habitats; specifically, cyanobacteria-dominated mats. Modern mats represent the oldest known biological communities on earth, stromatolites. Contemporary mats are dominant biological communities in the hypersaline Bahamian lakes along the Atlantic hurricane track. We examined the impacts of varying levels of hypersalinity on 2 processes controlling mat growth, photosynthesis and nitrogen fixation, in Salt Pond, San Salvador Island, Bahamas. Hypersalinity (> 5 times seawater salinity) proved highly inhibitory to these processes. Freshwater input from Hurricane Floyd and other large storms alleviated this salt-inhibition. A predicted 10 to 40 year increase in Atlantic hurricane activity accompanied by more frequent "freshening" events will enhance mat productivity, CO2 sequestration and nutrient cycling. Cyanobacterial mats are sensitive short- and long-term indicators of climatic and ecological changes impacting these and other waterstressed environments.}, }
@article {pmid12730497, year = {2003}, author = {Santer, BD and Wigley, TM and Meehl, GA and Wehner, MF and Mears, C and Schabel, M and Wentz, FJ and Ammann, C and Arblaster, J and Bettge, T and Washington, WM and Taylor, KE and Boyle, JS and Brüggemann, W and Doutriaux, C}, title = {Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally forced climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {300}, number = {5623}, pages = {1280-1284}, doi = {10.1126/science.1082393}, pmid = {12730497}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1 degrees C per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A model-predicted "fingerprint" of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.}, }
@article {pmid12721488, year = {2003}, author = {Graham, PJ and Gregg, DJ and Saddler, JN}, title = {Wood-ethanol for climate change mitigation in Canada.}, journal = {Applied biochemistry and biotechnology}, volume = {105 -108}, number = {}, pages = {231-242}, doi = {10.1385/abab:105:1-3:231}, pmid = {12721488}, issn = {0273-2289}, mesh = {Agriculture/methods/standards ; *Biomass ; Canada ; Climate ; Ethanol/*isolation &amp; purification ; Industrial Waste ; *Paper ; *Wood ; }, abstract = {The impetus for this paper is Canada's commitment under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to reduce national greenhouse gas emissions as well as reducing our dependency on fossil fuels. Wood-based ethanol offers an excellent opportunity for greenhouse gas mitigation due to market potential, an ability to offset significant emissions from the transportation sector, a reduction of emissions from CO2-intensive waste-management systems, and carbon sequestration in afforested plantations. While there are technological and economic barriers to overcome, using wood-biomass as a source of ethanol can be an economically viable tool for reducing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. This paper examines the costs and mitigation potential of the production of ethanol from biomass supplied from industrial wood waste as well as from trees harvested from afforested land.}, }
@article {pmid17840520, year = {1996}, author = {Singer, SF}, title = {In reply: climate change report.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {271}, number = {5255}, pages = {1482-1483}, doi = {10.1126/science.271.5255.1482}, pmid = {17840520}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17840519, year = {1996}, author = {Wigley, TM}, title = {Climate change report.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {271}, number = {5255}, pages = {1481-1482}, doi = {10.1126/science.271.5255.1481}, pmid = {17840519}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17792297, year = {1996}, author = {Prather, MJ}, title = {Climate change consensus.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {271}, number = {5252}, pages = {1042-1043}, doi = {10.1126/science.271.5252.1042}, pmid = {17792297}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17814905, year = {1996}, author = {Singer, SF}, title = {Climate change and consensus.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {271}, number = {5249}, pages = {581-582}, doi = {10.1126/science.271.5249.581}, pmid = {17814905}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17793391, year = {1996}, author = {Johannessen, OM and Bjørgo, E and Miles, MW}, title = {Global warming and the arctic.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {271}, number = {5246}, pages = {129a}, doi = {10.1126/science.271.5246.129a}, pmid = {17793391}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid15091596, year = {1995}, author = {Goudriaan, J and Zadoks, JC}, title = {Global climate change: modelling the potential responses of agro-ecosystems with special reference to crop protection.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {87}, number = {2}, pages = {215-224}, doi = {10.1016/0269-7491(94)p2609-d}, pmid = {15091596}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {Pests and diseases reduce yields to lower levels than those that could have been potentially obtained, given the restrictions of climate, nutrients and crop varieties. Climatic change not only affects the potential yield levels, but it may also modify the effects of pests and diseases. Modelling can serve as a tool to integrate these processes, ranging from simple removal of plant material to subtle toxic and hormonal effects. Modelling can help to quantify different modes of action such as on photosynthesis, root activity, assimilate partitioning, morphology, and their interactions. As to climatic change, little is known about pests, diseases and weeds. If climatic change causes a gradual shift of agricultural regions, crops and their associated pests, diseases and weeds will migrate together, though at different rates maybe. To a limited extent, new outbreaks can be foreseen given the changed environmental conditions. Methodology is available, and some interesting results are on record. Specific changes such as an increase in the CO(2) content in the air and in UV radiation are not likely to have large effects. Increasing atmospheric CO(2) reduces crop nitrogen content, which may retard many pests and diseases, and change the composition of the weed flora which accompanies crops. Some cautionary remarks are made to avoid jumping to conclusions.}, }
@article {pmid15091562, year = {1995}, author = {Manning, WJ and V Tiedemann, A}, title = {Climate change: potential effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), and ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation on plant diseases.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {88}, number = {2}, pages = {219-245}, doi = {10.1016/0269-7491(95)91446-r}, pmid = {15091562}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {Continued world population growth results in increased emission of gases from agriculture, combustion of fossil fuels, and industrial processes. This causes changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Evidence is emerging that increased solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation is reaching the earth's atmosphere, due to stratospheric ozone depletion. Carbon dioxide (CO(2)), ozone (O(3)) and UV-B are individual climate change factors that have direct biological effects on plants. Such effects may directly or indirectly affect the incidence and severity of plant diseases, caused by biotic agents. Carbon dioxide may increase plant canopy size and density, resulting in a greater biomass of high nutritional quality, combined with a much higher microclimate relative humidity. This would be likely to promote plant diseases such as rusts, powdery mildews, leaf spots and blights. Inoculum potential from greater overwintering crop debris would also be increased. Ozone is likely to have adverse effects on plant growth. Necrotrophic pathogens may colonize plants weakened by O(3) at an accelerated rate, while obligate biotroph infections may be lessened. Ozone is unlikely to have direct adverse effects on fungal pathogens. Ozone effects on plant diseases are host plant mediated. The principal effects of increased UV-B on plant diseases would be via alterations in host plants. Increased flavonoids could lead to increased diseased resistance. Reduced net photosynthesis and premature ripening and senescence could result in a decrease in diseases caused by biotrophs and an increase in those caused by necrotrophs. Microbial plant pathogens are less likely to be adversely affected by CO(2), O(3) and UV-B than are their corresponding host plants. Changes in host plants may result in expectable alterations of disease incidence, depending on host plant growth stages and type of pathogen. Given the importance of plant diseases in world food and fiber production, it is essential to begin studying the effects of increased CO(2), O(3) and UV-B (and other climate change factors) on plant diseases. We know very little about the actual impacts of climate change factors on disease epidemiology. Epidemiologists should be encouraged to consider CO(2), O(3) and UV-B as factors in their field studies.}, }
@article {pmid17775628, year = {1994}, author = {Meese, DA and Gow, AJ and Grootes, P and Stuiver, M and Mayewski, PA and Zielinski, GA and Ram, M and Taylor, KC and Waddington, ED}, title = {The Accumulation Record from the GISP2 Core as an Indicator of Climate Change Throughout the Holocene.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {266}, number = {5191}, pages = {1680-1682}, doi = {10.1126/science.266.5191.1680}, pmid = {17775628}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {A depth-age scale and an accumulation history for the Holocene have been established on the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) deep core, providing the most continuously dated record of annual layer accumulation currently available. The depth-age scale was obtained with the use of various independent techniques to count annual layers in the core. An annual record of surface accumulation during the Holocene was obtained by correcting the observed layer thicknesses for flow-thinning. Fluctuations in accumulation provide a continuous and detailed record of climate variability over central Greenland during the Holocene. Climate events, including "Little Ice Age" type events, are examined.}, }
@article {pmid17779944, year = {1994}, author = {Radick, RR}, title = {Stellar variability and global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {266}, number = {5187}, pages = {1072}, doi = {10.1126/science.266.5187.1072}, pmid = {17779944}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17793456, year = {1994}, author = {Kumar, A and Leetmaa, A and Ji, M}, title = {Simulations of atmospheric variability induced by sea surface temperatures and implications for global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {266}, number = {5185}, pages = {632-634}, doi = {10.1126/science.266.5185.632}, pmid = {17793456}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {An atmospheric general circulation model was forced with observed interannual changes in the global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1982 to 1993. The simulated seasonal surface air temperature patterns over land areas closely resemble the observed. Over most of the globe, the patterns also resemble those associated with EI Niño events and are also reproduced in simulations with weak warm tropical SSTs near the date line. An exception is northern Asia, where the mechanisms for the observed warming are unclear. The results suggest that enhanced air-sea interactions resulting from recent, more persistent warm oceanic conditions in the tropics contributed to the observed global warming trend during this period.}, }
@article {pmid17816671, year = {1994}, author = {Stone, R}, title = {Rustic site draws a crowd to monitor global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {266}, number = {5184}, pages = {360-361}, doi = {10.1126/science.266.5184.360}, pmid = {17816671}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17838024, year = {1994}, author = {Lancaster, J}, title = {Revelle on global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {265}, number = {5170}, pages = {302}, doi = {10.1126/science.265.5170.302}, pmid = {17838024}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid14967650, year = {1994}, author = {Schmidtling, RC}, title = {Use of provenance tests to predict response to climate change: loblolly pine and Norway spruce.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {14}, number = {7_9}, pages = {805-817}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/14.7-8-9.805}, pmid = {14967650}, issn = {1758-4469}, abstract = {Provenance tests are often used to determine genetic responses of seed sources to transfer to different climates. This study was undertaken to determine whether provenance tests can be used to predict tree response to rapid climate changes in situ. Data from provenance tests of loblolly pines (Pinus taeda L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) and other southern pines (subsect. AUSTRALES Loud.) were interpreted using regression models to relate growth to temperature variables. Results of different plantings were combined by expressing growth as a percent deviation from the "local" source, and expressing temperature at the source as a deviation from that of the planting site. The results of the loblolly pine and Norway spruce models predicted a loss of about 5 to 10% in height growth below that expected for a genetically adapted seed source, if the average yearly temperature increases by 4 degrees C.}, }
@article {pmid14967649, year = {1994}, author = {Matyas, C}, title = {Modeling climate change effects with provenance test data.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {14}, number = {7_9}, pages = {797-804}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/14.7-8-9.797}, pmid = {14967649}, issn = {1758-4469}, abstract = {Provenance tests of forest trees, which were originally intended to identify suitable seed sources for planting at different locations, provide valuable data for assessing the response of populations to environmental change. Environmental differences between the location of origin and the planting (test) site have been calculated by principal component analysis and termed ecological distance. Based on ecological distance values, the growth response of tree populations can be modeled as a function of the test site macroclimate. These models can then be used to predict the effects of climatic change on growth and survival. The growth response model predicts that increasing annual mean temperatures will result in accelerated growth if precipitation is sufficient, but only within the limits characteristic of the species. At the southern limits of distribution, growth and competitive ability of the species will decline, leading to successional changes.}, }
@article {pmid14967639, year = {1994}, author = {DeLucia, EH and Callaway, RM and Schlesinger, WH}, title = {Offsetting changes in biomass allocation and photosynthesis in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) in response to climate change.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {14}, number = {7_9}, pages = {669-677}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/14.7-8-9.669}, pmid = {14967639}, issn = {1758-4469}, abstract = {We examined the effect of climate on aboveground biomass allocation of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) by measuring trees in disjunct forest stands growing on the same substrate at high-elevation montane sites and low-elevation desert sites. Climatic differences between the sites were comparable to the difference between present and future climates of interior North America that is expected to result from a doubling of atmospheric CO(2) concentration. Relative to the montane populations, the desert populations allocated a greater proportion of biomass to sapwood (functional xylem) at the expense of foliage. The leaf/sapwood area ratio and percent of aboveground biomass in sapwood for trees of the same height were 0.201 m(2) cm(-2) and 58% for montane trees and 0.104 m(2) cm(-2) and 71% for desert trees. In a phytotron experiment, increases in net photosynthesis and net assimilation rate for seedlings grown under future conditions of high CO(2) and temperature were offset by a decrease in leaf area ratio. As was observed for large trees at different elevations, increased temperatures caused an increase in biomass allocation to stem in the phytotron seedlings. Thus, CO(2)- and temperature-driven shifts in biomass allocation negated the effect on growth of the CO(2)-driven increase in carbon assimilation rate. Our data from the controlled growth chamber and field experiments suggest that future climate conditions, including elevated atmospheric CO(2), may not stimulate growth and productivity of ponderosa pine.}, }
@article {pmid17749022, year = {1994}, author = {Oerlemans, J}, title = {Quantifying global warming from the retreat of glaciers.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {264}, number = {5156}, pages = {243-245}, doi = {10.1126/science.264.5156.243}, pmid = {17749022}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Records of glacier fluctuations compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service can be used to derive an independent estimate of global warming during the last 100 years. Records of different glaciers are made comparable by a two-step scaling procedure: one allowing for differences in glacier geometry, the other for differences in climate sensitivity. The retreat of glaciers during the last 100 years appears to be coherent over the globe. On the basis of modeling of the climate sensitivity of glaciers, the observed glacier retreat can be explained by a linear warming trend of 0.66 kelvin per century.}, }
@article {pmid17749020, year = {1994}, author = {Foukal, P}, title = {Stellar luminosity variations and global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {264}, number = {5156}, pages = {238-239}, doi = {10.1126/science.264.5156.238}, pmid = {17749020}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Recent studies indicate that variation in the sun's luminosity is less than that observed in many other stars of similar magnetic activity. Current findings also indicate that in more active stars, the attenuation by faculae of sunspot luminosity modulation is less effective than in the sun at present. The sun could thus become photometrically more variable (and dimmer) if its magnetic activity exceeded present levels. But the levels of solar activity required for this to occur are not observed in carbon-14 and beryllium-10 records over the past several millennia, which indicates that such an increase in amplitude of surface magnetism-driven variations in solar luminosity is unlikely in the present epoch.}, }
@article {pmid17747661, year = {1994}, author = {Guilderson, TP and Fairbanks, RG and Rubenstone, JL}, title = {Tropical temperature variations since 20,000 years ago: modulating interhemispheric climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {263}, number = {5147}, pages = {663-665}, doi = {10.1126/science.263.5147.663}, pmid = {17747661}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as thermodynamically recorded in Barbados corals, were 5 degrees C colder than present values 19,000 years ago. Variable tropical SSTs may explain the interhemispheric synchroneity of global climate change as recorded in ice cores, snowline reconstructions, and vegetation records. Radiative changes due to cloud type and cloud cover are plausible mechanisms for maintaining cooler tropical SSTs in the past.}, }
@article {pmid15091767, year = {1994}, author = {MacDonald, AM and Matthews, KB and Paterson, E and Aspinall, RJ}, title = {The impact of climate change on the soil/moisture regime of Scottish mineral soils.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {83}, number = {1-2}, pages = {245-250}, doi = {10.1016/0269-7491(94)90039-6}, pmid = {15091767}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {The likely impact of climate change on the moisture regime of Scottish soils and consequently on agriculture and land use has been addressed using a novel Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach. Current estimates of changes in summer precipitation by the year 2030 are 0% with an associated uncertainty of +/- 11%. This study considers the worst case scenario of a decrease in rainfall by 11% which will lead to some low rainfall areas experiencing an increased drought risk, particularly on lighter soils. Wet areas with heavy soils could benefit from an increase in the accessibility period for machinery. As the major agricultural land in Scotland is located on the relatively dry east coast where localised problems due to drought are not uncommon even under the present climate, the detrimental effects of a decrease in rainfall for the whole of Scotland are therefore likely to outweigh the benefits. Approximately 8% of Scotland has been identified in this study as soil/climate combinations which will be susceptible to drought should summer rainfall decrease by 11% and summer temperature increase by 1.4 degrees C.}, }
@article {pmid15091758, year = {1994}, author = {Lindzen, RS}, title = {On the scientific basis for global warming scenarios.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {83}, number = {1-2}, pages = {125-134}, doi = {10.1016/0269-7491(94)90030-2}, pmid = {15091758}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {The scientific basis for current projections of significant warming due to enhanced minor greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is reviewed. Care is taken to distinguish the issue of changes in radiative forcing at the earth's surface from the issue of the climatic response to this forcing. With respect to the former, it is noted that the predicted forcing is, in fact, small (2 W m(-2) at the surface for a doubling of CO(2), or less than 1% of the absorbed solar flux). With respect to the latter, it is noted that predictions of significant warming are dependent on the presence of large positive feedbacks serving to amplify the response. The largest of these feedbacks in current models involves water vapor at upper levels in the troposphere. This feedback appears to be largely a model artifact, and evidence is presented that models may even have the wrong sign for this feedback. The possibility is examined that the response of climate to major volcanic eruptions may provide a test of the climate system's amplification. The basis for this possibility is the fact that the response delay of the ocean-atmosphere system is proportional to the system gain.}, }
@article {pmid15091757, year = {1994}, author = {Miranda, AI and Coutinho, M and Borrego, C}, title = {Forest fire emissions in Portugal: a contribution to global warming?.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {83}, number = {1-2}, pages = {121-123}, doi = {10.1016/0269-7491(94)90029-9}, pmid = {15091757}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {A forecast of expected evolution of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions in Portugal between 1988 and 2010 is presented. Predictions show that CO(2) emissions will almost double in the next twenty years. The equivalent potential CO(2) emissions from nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), for a time horizon of 20 years, is also presented. NO(x) and VOC emissions seem to make a significant contribution to the global warming potential of Portuguese emissions. Estimates of CO(2) emissions due to forest fires have been made, oriented towards the study of the Portuguese contribution to the global warming. If the burned area exceeds 100 000 ha this contribution could reach 7% of the total Portuguese CO(2) emissions. The global warming potential of Portuguese forest emissions were also calculated. The climate change predicted to Portugal could be responsible for an increase in the forest fires and consequently for a greater contribution of its emissions to the total values. It was concluded that it is important to quantify emissions of the greenhouse gases, including the contribution of forest fire emissions, not only in Portugal, but in all the Southern European countries.}, }
@article {pmid15091754, year = {1994}, author = {Gu, Y and Crawford, JW and Ramanee Peiris, D and Jefferies, RA}, title = {An approach for treating the uncertainties in the impact of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {83}, number = {1-2}, pages = {87-93}, doi = {10.1016/0269-7491(94)90026-4}, pmid = {15091754}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {Past accumulated data supported by the predictions of climate models suggest that our world is getting warmer. Scientists are trying to construct mathematical models of both climate and crop systems to identify what types of climate changes could constitute a significant risk or benefit for agriculture. However, due to the many uncertainties regarding these models, it is impossible to make unequivocal predictions. At present, almost all the research in this area is carried out without considering the uncertain nature of the problem. The approach outlined here attempts to find a way to deal with the above uncertainty problem. Artificial intelligence techniques are being developed with the aim of performing inferences based on uncertain information. In our method, causal graphs are used for explicit representation of the relationships between climatic factors and yield. Probabilities are used to express the uncertainties associated with these links, and Bayes' theorem is applied to deal with uncertainty reasonings. This approach has the additional advantage of allowing the prediction to be readily updated as results from improved climate and crop models become available. These opportunities are being evaluated initially by using the model for potato growth developed at the Scottish Crop Research Institute.}, }
@article {pmid15091748, year = {1994}, author = {Brown, N}, title = {Climate change and human history. Some indications from Europe, ad 400-1400.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {83}, number = {1-2}, pages = {37-43}, doi = {10.1016/0269-7491(94)90020-5}, pmid = {15091748}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {The influence of climate change on history is discussed in such a way as to take account of recent research while seeking to herald, rather than foreclose, the much more focussed and definitive debates that will become possible by the turn of the century. By then, much more elaborated time series of global climatic change over the last several millennia should be available. The period chosen for examination is the 1000 years or so following the collapse of Roman Europe. During this time, civilization seems to wane, wax and wane again, very much in phase with the climate deteriorating, improving and then deteriorating once more. What this overview high-lights is the great vulnerability to climatic perturbation of societies that are marginally poised for other reasons. In several major respects, the whole of world society will be marginal in the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid15091747, year = {1994}, author = {Hulme, M and Jones, PD}, title = {Global climate change in the instrumental period.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {83}, number = {1-2}, pages = {23-36}, doi = {10.1016/0269-7491(94)90019-1}, pmid = {15091747}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {The instrumental period of climate history began in the 18th century with the commencement of routine weather observations at fixed sites. Estimates of global-mean climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) were not possible, however, until the establishment of extensive observing networks midway through the 19th century. This paper reviews our knowledge of global climate change in the instrumental period. Time series of global-mean temperature and precipitation are examined and a comparison is made between two independent 30-year climatologies: 1931-1960 and 1961-1990. Examples are also provided of regional-scale climate changes. Such assessments are important for two reasons. First, they establish the variability of climate on the time-scale of decades, time-scales upon which it is reasonable to plan economic and socio-political activities. Second, and more specifically, they enable us to quantify the magnitude of global-mean climate change which has occurred over this period. Such detailed diagnostic climate information is a necessary, although not sufficient, prerequisite for the detection of global-scale warming which may have occurred due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Some attention is given to explanations of the observed changes in global-mean climate.}, }
@article {pmid15091639, year = {1994}, author = {Aspinall, R and Matthews, K}, title = {Climate change impact on distribution and abundance of wildlife species: an analytical approach using GIS.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {86}, number = {2}, pages = {217-223}, doi = {10.1016/0269-7491(94)90193-7}, pmid = {15091639}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {An analytical approach to modelling the likely impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of wildlife species is described using examples from Scotland. Data for present day distribution of wildlife and habitat are analysed using map data describing geographic variation in climatic factors. Climate data for the present day and under specified scenarios of change are themselves modelled within a GIS; climate modelling uses meteorological station data, climate change scenarios developed from GCMs and a variety of spatial interpolation techniques. The analytical procedure generates hypotheses defining ecological relationships between species distribution and climatic factors (monthly, seasonal and annual data). These relationships are then used to model the distribution of the species directly from climate and predict impacts of climate change. The analysis takes account of both direct impacts of climate on wildlife and indirect effects manifested through habitat response to climate change. The analytical procedure is implemented as a generic tool for inductive spatial analysis in GIS.}, }
@article {pmid17757357, year = {1993}, author = {Swetnam, TW}, title = {Fire history and climate change in giant sequoia groves.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {262}, number = {5135}, pages = {885-889}, doi = {10.1126/science.262.5135.885}, pmid = {17757357}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Fire scars in giant sequoia [Sequoiadendron giganteum (Lindley) Buchholz] were used to reconstruct the spatial and temporal pattern of surface fires that burned episodically through five groves during the past 2000 years. Comparisons with independent dendroclimatic reconstructions indicate that regionally synchronous fire occurrence was inversely related to yearly fluctuations in precipitation and directly related to decadal-to-centennial variations in temperature. Frequent small fires occurred during a warm period from about A.D. 1000 to 1300, and less frequent but more widespread fires occurred during cooler periods from about A.D. 500 to 1000 and after A.D. 1300. Regionally synchronous fire histories demonstrate the importance of climate in maintaining nonequilibrium conditions.}, }
@article {pmid17789949, year = {1993}, author = {Ely, LL and Enzel, Y and Baker, VR and Cayan, DR}, title = {A 5000-year record of extreme floods and climate change in the southwestern United States.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {262}, number = {5132}, pages = {410-412}, doi = {10.1126/science.262.5132.410}, pmid = {17789949}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {A 5000-year regional paleoflood chronology, based on flood deposits from 19 rivers in Arizona and Utah, reveals that the largest floods in the region cluster into distinct time intervals that coincide with periods of cool, moist climate and frequent El Niño events. The floods were most numerous from 4800 to 3600 years before present (B.P.), around 1000 years B.P., and after 500 years B.P., but decreased markedly from 3600 to 2200 and 800 to 600 years B.P. Analogous modern floods are associated with a specific set of anomalous atmospheric circulation conditions that were probably more prevalent during past flood epochs.}, }
@article {pmid17836232, year = {1993}, author = {Dowlatabadi, H and Morgan, MG}, title = {Integrated assessment of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {259}, number = {5103}, pages = {1813-1932}, doi = {10.1126/science.259.5103.1813}, pmid = {17836232}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17742531, year = {1992}, author = {Dorale, JA and González, LA and Reagan, MK and Pickett, DA and Murrell, MT and Baker, RG}, title = {A high-resolution record of holocene climate change in speleothem calcite from cold water cave, northeast iowa.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {258}, number = {5088}, pages = {1626-1630}, doi = {10.1126/science.258.5088.1626}, pmid = {17742531}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {High-precision uranium-thorium mass spectrometric chronology and (18)O-(13)C isotopic analysis of speleothem calcite from Cold Water Cave in northeast Iowa have been used to chart mid-Holocene climate change. Significant shifts in dagger(18)O and dagger(13)C isotopic values coincide with well-documented Holocene vegetation changes. Temperature estimates based on (18)O/(16)O ratios suggest that the climate warmed rapidly by about 3 degrees C at 5900 years before present and then cooled by 4 degrees C at 3600 years before present. Initiation of a gradual increase in dagger(13)C at 5900 years before present suggests that turnover of the forest soil biomass was slow and that equilibrium with prairie vegetation was not attained by 3600 years before present.}, }
@article {pmid17794735, year = {1992}, author = {Rubin, ES and Cooper, RN and Frosch, RA and Lee, TH and Marland, G and Rosenfeld, AH and Stine, DD}, title = {Realistic mitigation options for global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {257}, number = {5067}, pages = {148-266}, doi = {10.1126/science.257.5067.148}, pmid = {17794735}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17800693, year = {1992}, author = {Abelson, PH}, title = {Agriculture and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {257}, number = {5066}, pages = {9}, doi = {10.1126/science.257.5066.9}, pmid = {17800693}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17843470, year = {1992}, author = {Kellogg, WW}, title = {Aerosols and global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {256}, number = {5057}, pages = {598}, doi = {10.1126/science.256.5057.598}, pmid = {17843470}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17784088, year = {1991}, author = {Roberts, L}, title = {Report nixes "geritol" fix for global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {253}, number = {5027}, pages = {1490-1491}, doi = {10.1126/science.253.5027.1490}, pmid = {17784088}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17802066, year = {1991}, author = {Waggoner, PE}, title = {U.s. Water resources versus an announced but uncertain climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {251}, number = {4997}, pages = {1002}, doi = {10.1126/science.251.4997.1002}, pmid = {17802066}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17733289, year = {1991}, author = {Gary, BL and Keihm, SJ}, title = {Microwave sounding units and global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {251}, number = {4991}, pages = {316-317}, doi = {10.1126/science.251.4991.316}, pmid = {17733289}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid15092080, year = {1991}, author = {Dixon, RK and Turner, DP}, title = {The global carbon cycle and climate change: responses and feedbacks from below-ground systems.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {73}, number = {3-4}, pages = {245-262}, doi = {10.1016/0269-7491(91)90052-x}, pmid = {15092080}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {According to most global climate models, a continued build-up of CO2 and other greenhouse gases will lead to significant changes in temperature and precipitation patterns over large parts of the Earth. Below-ground processes will strongly influence the response of the biosphere to climate change and are likely to contribute to positive or negative biospheric feedbacks to climate change. Current global carbon budgets suggest that as much as 2000 Pg of carbon exists in soil systems. There is considerable disagreement, however, over pool sizes and flux (e.g. CO2, CH4) for various ecosystems. An equilibrium analysis of changes in global below-ground carbon storage due to a doubled-CO2 climate suggests a range from a possible sink of 41 Pg to a possible source of 101 Pg. Components of the terrestrial biosphere could be managed to sequester or conserve carbon and mitigate accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.}, }
@article {pmid17734713, year = {1990}, author = {}, title = {Global warming: not only show in town.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {250}, number = {4988}, pages = {1752}, doi = {10.1126/science.250.4988.1752}, pmid = {17734713}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid14972901, year = {1990}, author = {Gates, DM}, title = {Climate change and forests.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {7}, number = {1_2_3_4}, pages = {1-5}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/7.1-2-3-4.1}, pmid = {14972901}, issn = {1758-4469}, abstract = {Factors governing long-term change in global temperature are reviewed. The magnitude and rate of change in global temperature resulting from current increases in the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases are considered in relation to their impact on forests. Movement in forest zone boundaries at a rate of 2.5 km year(-1) are possible, which is nearly ten times the rate forests have been known to move by natural reproduction. Climate models indicate that increased global temperature will affect rainfall distribution, lead to more frequent and more severe storms and increase climatic variability. Consequences for the world's forests include increased frequencies of fire and blow-down, and wide-spread decline. Increased atmospheric CO(2) concentrations may increase forest growth where the effect is not offset by reduced precipitation, but the overall effect of anticipated changes in global climate is likely to be widespread loss of forests.}, }
@article {pmid17840184, year = {1990}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climatologists Debate How to Model the World: Will global warming be modest or catastrophic? The White House is pushing an initiative to help find out.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {250}, number = {4984}, pages = {1082-1083}, doi = {10.1126/science.250.4984.1082}, pmid = {17840184}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17793027, year = {1990}, author = {Luecke, DF}, title = {Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources. Paul E. Waggoner, Ed. Wiley-Interscience, New York, 1990. xvi, 496 pp., illus. $69. Wiley Series in Climate and the Biosphere.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {250}, number = {4979}, pages = {451-452}, doi = {10.1126/science.250.4979.451}, pmid = {17793027}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17831935, year = {1990}, author = {Nitze, WA}, title = {A proposed structure for an international convention on climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {249}, number = {4969}, pages = {607-608}, doi = {10.1126/science.249.4969.607}, pmid = {17831935}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17747509, year = {1990}, author = {Kaula, WM}, title = {Global warming questions.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {248}, number = {4961}, pages = {1281}, doi = {10.1126/science.248.4961.1281-a}, pmid = {17747509}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17843309, year = {1990}, author = {Gibbons, A}, title = {What's the Sound of One Ocean Warming?: Oceanographers will make a noise in the Indian Ocean that may be "heard" in Bermuda--and used to measure global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {248}, number = {4951}, pages = {33-34}, doi = {10.1126/science.248.4951.33}, pmid = {17843309}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17782801, year = {1990}, author = {Abelson, PH}, title = {Uncertainties about global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {247}, number = {4950}, pages = {1529}, doi = {10.1126/science.247.4950.1529}, pmid = {17782801}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17843795, year = {1990}, author = {Shukla, J and Nobre, C and Sellers, P}, title = {Amazon deforestation and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {247}, number = {4948}, pages = {1322-1325}, doi = {10.1126/science.247.4948.1322}, pmid = {17843795}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {A coupled numerical model of the global atmosphere and biosphere has been used to assess the effects of Amazon deforestation on the regional and global climate. When the tropical forests in the model were replaced by degraded grass (pasture), there was a significant increase in surface temperature and a decrease in evapotranspiration and precipitation over Amazonia. In the simulation, the length of the dry season also increased; such an increase could make reestablishment of the tropical forests after massive deforestation particularly difficult.}, }
@article {pmid17776449, year = {1990}, author = {}, title = {Global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {247}, number = {4945}, pages = {919}, doi = {10.1126/science.247.4945.919-a}, pmid = {17776449}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17743981, year = {1990}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming continues in 1989.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {247}, number = {4942}, pages = {521}, doi = {10.1126/science.247.4942.521}, pmid = {17743981}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17813287, year = {1990}, author = {Bakun, A}, title = {Global climate change and intensification of coastal ocean upwelling.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {247}, number = {4939}, pages = {198-201}, doi = {10.1126/science.247.4939.198}, pmid = {17813287}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {A mechanism exists whereby global greenhouse warning could, by intensifying the alongshore wind stress on the ocean surface, lead to acceleration of coastal upwelling. Evidence from several different regions suggests that the major coastal upwelling systems of the world have been growing in upwelling intensity as greenhouse gases have accumulated in the earth's atmosphere. Thus the cool foggy summer conditions that typify the coastlands of northern California and other similar upwelling regions might, under global warming, become even more pronounced. Effects of enhanced upwelling on the marine ecosystem are uncertain but potentially dramatic.}, }
@article {pmid17749474, year = {1990}, author = {Roberts, L}, title = {In reply: global warming report.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {247}, number = {4938}, pages = {16}, doi = {10.1126/science.247.4938.16}, pmid = {17749474}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17749473, year = {1990}, author = {Baliunas, S}, title = {In reply: global warming report.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {247}, number = {4938}, pages = {15}, doi = {10.1126/science.247.4938.15}, pmid = {17749473}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17749472, year = {1990}, author = {Stuiver, M}, title = {In reply: global warming report.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {247}, number = {4938}, pages = {15-16}, doi = {10.1126/science.247.4938.15-a}, pmid = {17749472}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17749471, year = {1990}, author = {Lindzen, RS}, title = {Global warming report.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {247}, number = {4938}, pages = {14}, doi = {10.1126/science.247.4938.14}, pmid = {17749471}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17749470, year = {1990}, author = {Nierenberg, WA}, title = {In reply: global warming report.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {247}, number = {4938}, pages = {14}, doi = {10.1126/science.247.4938.14-a}, pmid = {17749470}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17749469, year = {1990}, author = {Jastrow, R}, title = {In reply: global warming report.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {247}, number = {4938}, pages = {14}, doi = {10.1126/science.247.4938.14-b}, pmid = {17749469}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid15092193, year = {1990}, author = {Kickert, RN and Krupa, SV}, title = {Forest responses to tropospheric ozone and global climate change: an analysis.}, journal = {Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)}, volume = {68}, number = {1-2}, pages = {29-65}, doi = {10.1016/0269-7491(90)90012-2}, pmid = {15092193}, issn = {0269-7491}, abstract = {In this paper an analysis is provided on: what we know, what we need to know, and what we need to do, to further our understanding of the relationships between tropospheric ozone (O(3)), global climate change and forest responses. The relationships between global geographic distributions of forest ecosystems and potential geographic regions of high photochemical smog by the year 2025 AD are described. While the emphasis is on the effects of tropospheric O(3) on forest ecosystems, discussion is presented to understand such effects in the context of global climate change. One particular strong point of this paper is the audit of published surface O(3) data by photochemical smog region that reveals important forest/woodland geographic regions where little or no O(3) data exist even though the potential threat to forests in those regions appears to be large. The concepts and considerations relevant to the examination of ecosystem responses as a whole, rather than simply tree stands alone are reviewed. A brief argument is provided to stimulate the modification of the concept of simple cause and effect relationships in viewing total ecosystems. Our knowledge of O(3) exposure and its effects on the energy, nutrient and hydrological flow within the ecosystem are described. Modeling strategies for such systems are reviewed. A discussion of responses of forests to potential multiple climatic changes is provided. An important concept in this paper is that changes in water exchange processes throughout the hydrological cycle can be used as early warning indicators of forest responses to O(3). Another strength of this paper is the integration of information on structural and functional processes of ecosystems and their responses to O(3). An admitted weakness of this analysis is that the information on integrated ecosystem responses is based overwhelmingly on the San Bernardino Forest ecosystem research program of the 1970s because of a lack of similar studies. In the final analysis, it is recommended that systems ecology be applied in examining the joint effects of O(3), carbon dioxide and ultraviolet-B radiation on forest ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid17806397, year = {1989}, author = {Firor, J}, title = {Responses to climate change: greenhouse warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {246}, number = {4933}, pages = {1062-1063}, doi = {10.1126/science.246.4933.1062-a}, pmid = {17806397}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17806372, year = {1989}, author = {Roberts, L}, title = {Global Warming: Blaming the Sun: A report that essentially wishes away greenhouse warming is said to be having a major influence on White House policy.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {246}, number = {4933}, pages = {992-993}, doi = {10.1126/science.246.4933.992}, pmid = {17806372}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17812564, year = {1989}, author = {Fulkerson, W and Reister, DB and Auerbach, SI and Perry, AM and Crane, AT and Kash, DE}, title = {Global warming: an energy technology r&amp;d challenge.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {246}, number = {4932}, pages = {868-869}, doi = {10.1126/science.246.4932.868}, pmid = {17812564}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17833405, year = {1989}, author = {Sun, M}, title = {Global Warming Becomes Hot Issue for Bromley: A disagreement within the Administration over plans for an international meeting on global change was aired in the press and on Capitol Hill last week.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {246}, number = {4930}, pages = {569}, doi = {10.1126/science.246.4930.569}, pmid = {17833405}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17847254, year = {1989}, author = {Marshall, E}, title = {EPA's Plan for Cooling the Global Greenhouse: A new report lists a dozen plausible actions that, if begun in the 1990s, could reduce global warming 60% over the next century.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {243}, number = {4898}, pages = {1544-1545}, doi = {10.1126/science.243.4898.1544}, pmid = {17847254}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17834222, year = {1989}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {The Global Warming Is Real: An analysis of the effect of urban growth on U.S. climate records shows that a century of global warming is real; the magnitude of future warming remains uncertain.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {243}, number = {4891}, pages = {603}, doi = {10.1126/science.243.4891.603}, pmid = {17834222}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17815886, year = {1988}, author = {Crawford, M}, title = {Planning for climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {242}, number = {4878}, pages = {510}, doi = {10.1126/science.242.4878.510}, pmid = {17815886}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17757617, year = {1988}, author = {Booth, W}, title = {Johnny Appleseed and the Greenhouse: Replanting the forests of the earth could help mitigate global warming; what was once fantasy is now a policy option, but it is still a lot of trees.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {242}, number = {4875}, pages = {19-20}, doi = {10.1126/science.242.4875.19}, pmid = {17757617}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17731712, year = {1988}, author = {Crowley, TJ and North, GR}, title = {Abrupt climate change and extinction events in Earth history.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {240}, number = {4855}, pages = {996-1002}, doi = {10.1126/science.240.4855.996}, pmid = {17731712}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Slowly changing boundary conditions can sometimes cause discontinuous responses in climate models and result in relatively rapid transitions between different climate states. Such terrestrially induced abrupt climate transitions could have contributed to biotic crises in earth history. Ancillary events associated with transitions could disperse unstable climate behavior over a longer but still geologically brief interval and account for the stepwise nature of some extinction events. There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of abrupt climate change, and a comparison of paleoclimate data with the Phanerozoic extinction record indicates that climate and biotic transitions often coincide. However, more stratigraphic information is needed to precisely assess phase relations between the two types of transitions. The climate-life comparison also suggests that, if climate change is significantly contributing to biotic turnover, ecosystems may be more sensitive to forcing during the early stages of evolution from an ice-free to a glaciated state. Our analysis suggests that a terrestrially induced climate instability is a viable mechanism for causing rapid environmental change and biotic turnover in earth history, but the relation is not so strong that other sources of variance can be excluded.}, }
@article {pmid17796737, year = {1988}, author = {Ramanathan, V}, title = {The greenhouse theory of climate change: a test by an inadvertent global experiment.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {240}, number = {4850}, pages = {293-299}, doi = {10.1126/science.240.4850.293}, pmid = {17796737}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Since the dawn of the industrial era, the atmospheric concentrations of several radiatively active gases have been increasing as a result of human activities. The radiative heating from this inadvertent experiment has driven the climate system out of equilibrium with the incoming solar energy. According to the greenhouse theory of climate change, the climate system will be restored to equilibrium by a warming of the surfacetroposphere system and a cooling of the stratosphere. The predicted changes, during the next few decades, could far exceed natural climate variations in historical times. Hence, the greenhouse theory of climate change has reached the crucial stage of verification. Surface warming as large as that predicted by models would be unprecedented during an interglacial period such as the present. The theory, its scope for verification, and the emerging complexities of the climate feedback mechanisms are discussed.}, }
@article {pmid17759057, year = {1988}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Is the Greenhouse Here?: A global warming plus hints of other climatic changes are starting to build the case for an intensifying greenhouse, but can the case be proven in time?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {239}, number = {4840}, pages = {559-561}, doi = {10.1126/science.239.4840.559}, pmid = {17759057}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17834523, year = {1986}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Mapping Orbital Effects on Climate: Paleoceanographers are tracing the global chain of events that must lead from the variations in the earth's orbit and axial motions to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {234}, number = {4774}, pages = {283-284}, doi = {10.1126/science.234.4774.283}, pmid = {17834523}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17770990, year = {1984}, author = {Dean, WE and Bradbury, JP and Anderson, RY and Barnosky, CW}, title = {The variability of holocene climate change: evidence from varved lake sediments.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {226}, number = {4679}, pages = {1191-1194}, doi = {10.1126/science.226.4679.1191}, pmid = {17770990}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Varved sediments from a lake near the present forest-prairie border in northwestern Minnesota provide an annual record of climate change for the last 10,400 years. Climate-sensitive mineral, chemical, and biological components show that the mid-Holocene dry interval between 8500 and 4000 years ago is asymmetrical and actually consists of two distinct drier pulses separated by a moister interval that lasted about 600 years. Cyclic fluctuations with periods of several hundred years were abrupt and persistent throughout the Holocene and are most clearly recorded within the two drier pulses.}, }
@article {pmid17759359, year = {1984}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Periodic Impacts and Extinctions Reported: In a potentially historic workshop, researchers sought a trigger for comet showers that might ultimately drive evolution and even climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {223}, number = {4642}, pages = {1277-1279}, doi = {10.1126/science.223.4642.1277}, pmid = {17759359}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17817940, year = {1983}, author = {Hansen, J and Gornitz, V and Lebedeff, S and Moore, E}, title = {Global mean sea level: indicator of climate change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {219}, number = {4587}, pages = {997}, doi = {10.1126/science.219.4587.997}, pmid = {17817940}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17817939, year = {1983}, author = {Etkins, R and Epstein, E}, title = {Global mean sea level: indicator of climate change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {219}, number = {4587}, pages = {997-998}, doi = {10.1126/science.219.4587.997-a}, pmid = {17817939}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17817938, year = {1983}, author = {Robock, A}, title = {Global mean sea level: indicator of climate change?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {219}, number = {4587}, pages = {996}, doi = {10.1126/science.219.4587.996}, pmid = {17817938}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17839329, year = {1982}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {El chichon forebodes climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {217}, number = {4564}, pages = {1023}, doi = {10.1126/science.217.4564.1023}, pmid = {17839329}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17784354, year = {1982}, author = {Etkins, R and Epstein, ES}, title = {The rise of global mean sea level as an indication of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {215}, number = {4530}, pages = {287-289}, doi = {10.1126/science.215.4530.287}, pmid = {17784354}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Rising mean sea level, it is proposed, is a significant indicator of global climate change. The principal factors that can have contributed to the observed increases of global mean sea level in recent decades are thermal expansion of the oceans and the discharge of polar ice sheets. Calculations indicate that thermal expansion cannot be the sole factor responsible for the observed rise in sea level over the last 40 years; significant discharges of polar ice must also be occurring. Global warming, due in some degree presumably to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, has been opposed by the extraction of heat necessary to melt the discharged ice. During the past 40 years more than 50,000 cubic kilometers of ice has been discharged and has melted, reducing the surface warming that might otherwise have occurred by as much as a factor of 2. The transfer of mass from the polar regions to a thin spherical shell covering all the oceans should have increased the earth's moment of inertia and correspondingly reduced the speed of rotation by about 1.5 parts in 10(8). This accounts for about three quarters of the observed fractional reduction in the earth's angular velocity since 1940. Monitoring of global mean sea level, ocean surface temperatures, and the earth's speed of rotation should be complemented by monitoring of the polar ice sheets, as is now possible by satellite altimetry. All parts of the puzzle need to be examined in order that a consistent picture emerge.}, }
@article {pmid17744925, year = {1981}, author = {}, title = {Research into Effects of a CO2-Climate Change Suggested.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {211}, number = {4486}, pages = {1036}, doi = {10.1126/science.211.4486.1036-a}, pmid = {17744925}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid17753291, year = {1980}, author = {Madden, RA and Ramanathan, V}, title = {Detecting Climate Change due to Increasing Carbon Dioxide.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {209}, number = {4458}, pages = {763-768}, doi = {10.1126/science.209.4458.763}, pmid = {17753291}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {The observed interannual variability of temperature at 60 degrees N has been investigated. The results indicate that the surface warming due to increased carbon dioxide which is predicted by three-dimensional climate models should be detectable now. It is not, possibly because the predicted warming is being delayed more than a decade by ocean thermal inertia, or because there is a compensating cooling due to other factors. Further consideration of the uncertainties in model predictions and of the likely delays introduced by ocean thermal inertia extends the range of time for the detection of warming, if it occurs, to the year 2000. The effects of increasing carbon dioxide should be looked for in several variables simultaneously in order to minimize the ambiguities that could result from unrecognized compensating cooling.}, }
@article {pmid17781884, year = {1975}, author = {Broecker, WS}, title = {Climatic change: are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {189}, number = {4201}, pages = {460-463}, doi = {10.1126/science.189.4201.460}, pmid = {17781884}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {If man-made dust is unimportant as a major cause of climatic change, then a strong case can be made that the present cooling trend will, within a decade or so, give way to a pronounced warming induced by carbon dioxide. By analogy with similar events in the past, the natural climatic cooling which, since 1940, has more than compensated for the carbon dioxide effect, will soon bottom out. Once this happens, the exponential rise in the atmospheric carbon dioxide content will tend to become a significant factor and by early in the next century will have driven the mean planetary temperature beyond the limits experienced during the last 1000 years.}, }
@article {pmid17796569, year = {1971}, author = {Gast, PF}, title = {Climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {173}, number = {4001}, pages = {982-983}, doi = {10.1126/science.173.4001.982-a}, pmid = {17796569}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid13175697, year = {1953}, author = {BARRAUD, G}, title = {[Shock and climate change at the mineral, sea water therapy spa ].}, journal = {Maroc medical}, volume = {32}, number = {342}, pages = {1095-1099}, pmid = {13175697}, issn = {0025-388X}, mesh = {*Balneology ; Climate/*therapeutic use ; *Climate Change ; *Climatotherapy ; Humans ; *Hydrotherapy ; Mineral Waters/*therapeutic use ; *Minerals ; *Mud Therapy ; *Seawater ; }, }
@article {pmid18099825, year = {1948}, author = {BERT, }, title = {[About indications of climate change in asthma therapy].}, journal = {La Presse thermale et climatique}, volume = {85}, number = {8}, pages = {190}, pmid = {18099825}, issn = {0032-7875}, mesh = {Asthma/*therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid12707839, year = {2003}, author = {Weladji, RB and Holand, &#xd8;}, title = {Global climate change and reindeer: effects of winter weather on the autumn weight and growth of calves.}, journal = {Oecologia}, volume = {136}, number = {2}, pages = {317-323}, pmid = {12707839}, issn = {0029-8549}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Animals, Newborn/*growth &amp; development ; Body Weight ; Diet ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Inuit ; Male ; Reindeer/*growth &amp; development ; Seasons ; Sex Factors ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which constitute a biological resource of vital importance for the physical and cultural survival of Arctic residents, and inhabit extremely seasonal environments, have received little attention in the global change debate. We investigated how body weight and growth rate of reindeer calves were affected by large-scale climatic variability [measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index] and density in one population in central Norway. Body weights of calves in summer and early winter, as well as their growth rate (summer to early winter), were significantly influenced by density and the NAO index when cohorts were in utero. Males were heavier and had higher absolute growth than females, but there was no evidence that preweaning condition of male and female calves were influenced differently by the NAO winter index. Increasing NAO index had a negative effect on calves' body weight and growth rate. Increasing density significantly reduced body weight and growth rate of calves, and accentuated the effect of the NAO winter index. Winters with a higher NAO index are thus severe for reindeer calves in this area and their effects are associated with nutritional stress experienced by the dams during pregnancy or immediately after calving. Moreover, increased density may enhance intra-specific competition and limits food available at the individual level within cohorts. We conclude that if the current pattern of global warming continues, with greater change occurring in northern latitudes and during winter as is predicted, reduced body weight of reindeer calves may be a consequence in areas where winters with a high NAO index are severe. This will likely have an effect on the livelihood of many northern indigenous peoples, both economically and culturally.}, }
@article {pmid12691490, year = {2003}, author = {Hastie, LC and Cosgrove, PJ and Ellis, N and Gaywood, MJ}, title = {The threat of climate change to freshwater pearl mussel populations.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {40-46}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-32.1.40}, pmid = {12691490}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bivalvia ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Population Dynamics ; Scotland ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Changes in climate are occurring around the world and the effects on ecosystems will vary, depending on the extent and nature of these changes. In northern Europe, experts predict that annual rainfall will increase significantly, along with dramatic storm events and flooding in the next 50-100 years. Scotland is a stronghold of the endangered freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera (L.), and a number of populations may be threatened. For example, large floods have been shown to adversely affect mussels, and although these stochastic events were historically rare, they may now be occurring more often as a result of climate change. Populations may also be affected by a number of other factors, including predicted changes in temperature, sea level, habitat availability, host fish stocks and human activity. In this paper, we explain how climate change may impact M. margaritifera and discuss the general implications for the conservation management of this species.}, }
@article {pmid12677048, year = {2003}, author = {Buesseler, KO and Boyd, PW}, title = {Climate change. Will ocean fertilization work?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {300}, number = {5616}, pages = {67-68}, doi = {10.1126/science.1082959}, pmid = {12677048}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; *Biomass ; *Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Iron ; Oceans and Seas ; Photosynthesis ; Phytoplankton/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; *Seawater ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid12676212, year = {2003}, author = {Semazzi, F}, title = {Air quality research: perspective from climate change modelling research.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {29}, number = {2-3}, pages = {253-261}, doi = {10.1016/S0160-4120(02)00184-8}, pmid = {12676212}, issn = {0160-4120}, mesh = {*Air Pollutants ; *Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Industry ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Social Conditions ; }, abstract = {A major component of climate change is a manifestation of changes in air quality. This paper explores the question of air quality from the climate change modelling perspective. It reviews recent research advances on the cause-effect relationships between atmospheric air composition and climate change, primarily based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of climate change over the past decade. There is a growing degree of confidence that the warming world over the past century was caused by human-related changes in the composition of air. Reliability of projections of future climate change is highly dependent on future emission scenarios that have been identified that in turn depend on a multitude of complicated interacting social-economic factors. Anticipated improvements in the performance of climate models is a major source of optimism for better climate projections in the future, but the real benefits of its contribution will be closely coupled with other sources of uncertainty, and in particular emission projections.}, }
@article {pmid12675935, year = {2003}, author = {Hunter, PR}, title = {Climate change and waterborne and vector-borne disease.}, journal = {Journal of applied microbiology}, volume = {94 Suppl}, number = {}, pages = {37S-46S}, doi = {10.1046/j.1365-2672.94.s1.5.x}, pmid = {12675935}, issn = {1364-5072}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; Disasters ; Disease Vectors ; Humans ; Rain ; Risk ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; *Water Microbiology ; Water Pollution ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {This paper considers the potential impact on human health from waterborne and vector-borne infections. It concentrates on the impact of two possible changes to climate; increased frequency of heavy rainfall events, with associated flooding and increased temperature. Flooding is associated with increased risk of infection in developing nations but not in the West unless water sources are compromised. There have been numerous reported of outbreaks that followed flooding that led to contamination of underground sources of drinking water. Heavy rainfall also leads to deterioration in the quality of surface waters that could adversely affect the health of those engaged in recreational water contact. It is also concluded that there may be an increase in the number of cyanobacterial blooms because of a combination of increased nutrient concentrations and water temperature. It is considered unlikely that climate change will lead to an increase in disease linked to mains drinking water, although private supplies would be at risk from increased heavy rainfall events. Although increased temperature could lead to climatic conditions favourable to increases in certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria, the infrastructure in the UK would prevent the indigenous spread of malaria.}, }
@article {pmid12666902, year = {2003}, author = {Cooney, CM}, title = {Bush takes a look at climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {37}, number = {5}, pages = {86A-87A}, doi = {10.1021/es0323906}, pmid = {12666902}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Data Collection ; *Environment ; Environmental Pollutants ; Financing, Government ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Research/trends ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid12663908, year = {2003}, author = {Alley, RB and Marotzke, J and Nordhaus, WD and Overpeck, JT and Peteet, DM and Pielke, RA and Pierrehumbert, RT and Rhines, PB and Stocker, TF and Talley, LD and Wallace, JM}, title = {Abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {299}, number = {5615}, pages = {2005-2010}, doi = {10.1126/science.1081056}, pmid = {12663908}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.}, }
@article {pmid12659541, year = {2003}, author = {Andrady, AL and Hamid, HS and Torikai, A}, title = {Effects of climate change and UV-B on materials.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {68-72}, doi = {10.1039/b211085g}, pmid = {12659541}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Exposure ; Sunlight ; Thermodynamics ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; Water ; }, abstract = {The outdoor service life of common plastic materials is limited by their susceptibility to solar ultraviolet radiation. Of the solar wavelengths the UV-B component is particularly efficient in bringing about photodamage in synthetic and naturally occurring materials. This is particularly true of plastics, rubber and wood used in the building and agricultural industries. Any depletion in the stratospheric ozone layer and resulting increase in the UV-B component of terrestrial sunlight will therefore tend to decrease the service life of these materials. The extent to which the service life is reduced is, however, difficult to estimate as it depends on several factors. These include the chemical nature of the material, the additives it contains, the type and the amount of light-stabilizers (or protective coatings) used, and the amount of solar exposure it receives. Concomitant climate change is likely to increase the ambient temperature and humidity in some of the same regions likely to receive increased UV-B radiation. These factors, particularly higher temperatures, are also well known to accelerate the rate of photodegradation of materials, and may therefore further limit the service life of materials in these regions. To reliably assess the damage to materials as a consequence of ozone layer depletion, the wavelength sensitivity of the degradation process, dose-response relationships for the material and the effectiveness of available stabilizers need to be quantified. The data needed for the purpose are not readily available at this time for most of the commonly used plastics or wood materials. Wavelength sensitivity of a number of common plastic materials and natural biopolymers are available and generally show the damage (per photon) to decrease exponentially with the wavelength. Despite the relatively higher fraction of UV-A in sunlight, the UV-B content is responsible for a significant part of light-induced damage of materials. The primary approach to mitigation relies on the effectiveness of the existing light stabilizers (such as hindered amine light stabilizers, HALS) used in plastics exposed to harsh solar UV conditions coupled with climate change factors. In developing advanced light-stabilizer technologies, more light-resistant grades of common plastics, or surface protection technologies for wood, the harsh weathering environment created by the simultaneous action of increased UV-B levels due to ozone depletion as well as the relevant climate change factors need to be taken into consideration. Recent literature includes several studies on synergism of HALS-based stabilizers, stabilizer effectiveness in the new m-polyolefins and elucidation of the mechanism of stabilization afforded by titania pigment in vinyl plastics.}, }
@article {pmid12659539, year = {2003}, author = {Zepp, RG and Callaghan, TV and Erickson, DJ}, title = {Interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on biogeochemical cycles.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {51-61}, doi = {10.1039/b211154n}, pmid = {12659539}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Biological ; *Ozone ; Plants/radiation effects ; *Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {The effects of ozone depiction on global biogeochemical cycles, via increased UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, have continued to be documented over the past 4 years. In this report we also document various effects of UV-B that interact with global climate change because the detailed interactions between ozone depletion and climate change are central to the prediction and evaluation of future Earth environmental conditions. There is increasing evidence that elevated UV-B has significant effects on the terrestrial biosphere with important implications for the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. Increased UV has been shown to induce carbon monoxide production from dead plant matter in terrestrial ecosystems, nitrogen oxide production from Arctic and Antarctic snowpacks, and halogenated substances from several terrestrial ecosystems. New studies on UV effects on the decomposition of dead leaf material confirm that these effects are complex and species-specific. Decomposition can be retarded, accelerated or remain unchanged. It has been difficult to relate effects of UV on decomposition rates to leaf litter chemistry, as this is very variable. However, new evidence shows UV effects on some fungi, bacterial communities and soil fauna that could play roles in decomposition and nutrient cycling. An important new result is that not only is nitrogen cycling in soils perturbed significantly by increased UV-B, but that these effects persist for over a decade. As nitrogen cycling is temperature dependent, this finding clearly links the impacts of ozone depletion to the ability of plants to use nitrogen in a warming global environment. There are many other potential interactions between UV and climate change impacts on terrestrial biogeochemical cycles that remain to be quantified. There is also new evidence that UV-B strongly influences aquatic carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and metals cycling that affect a wide range of life processes. UV-B accelerates the decomposition of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) entering the sea via terrestrial runoff, thus having important effects on oceanic carbon cycle dynamics. Since UV-B influences the distribution of CDOM, there is an impact of UV-B on estimates of oceanic productivity based on remote sensing of ocean color. Thus, oceanic productivity estimates based on remote sensing require estimates of CDOM distributions. Recent research shows that UV-B transforms dissolved organic matter to dissolved inorganic carbon and nitrogen, including carbon dioxide and ammonium and to organic substances that are either more or less readily available to micro-organisms. The extent of these transformations is correlated with loss of UV absorbance by the organic matter. Changes in aquatic primary productivity and decomposition due to climate-related changes in circulation and nutrient supply, which occur concurrently with increased UV-B exposure, have synergistic influences on the penetration of light into aquatic ecosystems. New research has confirmed that UV affects the biological availability of iron, copper and other trace metals in aquatic environments thus potentially affecting the growth of phytoplankton and other microorganisms that are involved in carbon and nitrogen cycling. There are several instances where UV-B modifies the air sea exchange of trace gases that in turn alter atmospheric chemistry, including the carbon cycle.}, }
@article {pmid12659536, year = {2003}, author = {de Gruijl, FR and Longstreth, J and Norval, M and Cullen, AP and Slaper, H and Kripke, ML and Takizawa, Y and van der Leun, JC}, title = {Health effects from stratospheric ozone depletion and interactions with climate change.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {16-28}, doi = {10.1039/b211156j}, pmid = {12659536}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Cataract/etiology ; DNA Repair/radiation effects ; Humans ; Lens, Crystalline/radiation effects ; *Ozone/adverse effects ; *Public Health ; Sunburn ; Ultraviolet Rays/*adverse effects ; }, abstract = {The potential health effects of elevated levels of ambient UV-B radiation are diverse, and it is difficult to quantify the risks, especially as they are likely to be considerably modified by human behaviour. Nevertheless epidemiological and experimental studies have confirmed that UV radiation is a definite risk factor for certain types of cataract, with peak efficacy in the UV-B waveband. The causal link between squamous cell carcinoma and cumulative solar UV exposure has been well established. New findings regarding the genetic basis of skin cancer, including studies on genetically modified mice, have confirmed the epidemiological evidence that UV radiation contributes to the formation of basal cell carcinomas and cutaneous melanomas, For the latter, animal models have demonstrated that UV exposure at a very young age is more detrimental than exposure in adulthood. Although suppression of certain immune responses has been recognised following UV exposure, the impact of this suppression on the control of infectious and autoimmune diseases is largely unknown. However, studies on several microbial infections have indicated significant consequences in terms of symptoms or reactivation of disease. The possibility that the immune response to vaccination could be depressed by UV-B exposure is of considerable concern. Newly emerging possibilities regarding interactions between ozone depletion and global climate change further complicate the risk assessments for human health but might result in an increased incidence of cataracts and skin cancer, plus alterations in the patterns of certain categories of infectious and other diseases.}, }
@article {pmid12659534, year = {2003}, author = {}, title = {Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: 2002 assessment. Executive summary.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {1-4}, pmid = {12659534}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Carcinoma, Basal Cell/etiology ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Health ; Humans ; Melanoma/etiology ; Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced ; Ozone/*radiation effects ; Skin Neoplasms/etiology ; *Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid12655681, year = {2002}, author = {Matsumoto, K}, title = {[Global warming and changes in disease patterns].}, journal = {Nihon Naika Gakkai zasshi. The Journal of the Japanese Society of Internal Medicine}, volume = {91}, number = {12}, pages = {3437-3441}, pmid = {12655681}, issn = {0021-5384}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Morbidity ; }, }
@article {pmid12653470, year = {2002}, author = {van der Leun, JC and de Gruijl, FR}, title = {Climate change and skin cancer.}, journal = {Photochemical &amp; photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology}, volume = {1}, number = {5}, pages = {324-326}, doi = {10.1039/b201025a}, pmid = {12653470}, issn = {1474-905X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Mice ; Ozone ; Skin/radiation effects ; Skin Neoplasms/*etiology ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Depletion of the ozone layer and climate change by the increasing greenhouse effect are distinctly different processes. It is becoming quite clear, however, that the two global environmental problems are interlinked in several ways [D. L. Albritton, P. J Aucamp, G. Mégie, R. T. Watson, Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, 1998, World Meteorological Organization, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Report No. 44 (WMO, Geneva, 1998)]. In the present analysis we deal with the possibility of such an interlinkage within one effect on human health, namely, skin cancer. The increase in the incidence of skin cancer is one of the most extensively studied effects of increasing ultraviolet radiation by ozone depletion (F. R. de Gruijl, Skin cancer and solar radiation, Eur. J Cancer, 1999, 35, 2003-2009). We wondered if this impact could also be influenced by increasing environmental temperatures. Here we show that it is likely that such an influence will occur. For the same reason, it is likely that the baseline incidence of skin cancer will be augmented by rising temperatures, which may become significant in magnitude.}, }
@article {pmid12653292, year = {2003}, author = {Edwards, RD and Smith, KR and Zhang, J and Ma, Y}, title = {Models to predict emissions of health-damaging pollutants and global warming contributions of residential fuel/stove combinations in China.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {50}, number = {2}, pages = {201-215}, doi = {10.1016/s0045-6535(02)00478-2}, pmid = {12653292}, issn = {0045-6535}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*analysis ; China ; Cooking/instrumentation ; Developing Countries ; *Energy-Generating Resources ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Household Articles/instrumentation ; Logistic Models ; }, abstract = {Residential energy use in developing countries has traditionally been associated with combustion devices of poor energy efficiency, which have been shown to produce substantial health-damaging pollution, contributing significantly to the global burden of disease, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Precision of these estimates in China has been hampered by limited data on stove use and fuel consumption in residences. In addition limited information is available on variability of emissions of pollutants from different stove/fuel combinations in typical use, as measurement of emission factors requires measurement of multiple chemical species in complex burn cycle tests. Such measurements are too costly and time consuming for application in conjunction with national surveys. Emissions of most of the major health-damaging pollutants (HDP) and many of the gases that contribute to GHG emissions from cooking stoves are the result of the significant portion of fuel carbon that is diverted to products of incomplete combustion (PIC) as a result of poor combustion efficiencies. The approximately linear increase in emissions of PIC with decreasing combustion efficiencies allows development of linear models to predict emissions of GHG and HDP intrinsically linked to CO2 and PIC production, and ultimately allows the prediction of global warming contributions from residential stove emissions. A comprehensive emissions database of three burn cycles of 23 typical fuel/stove combinations tested in a simulated village house in China has been used to develop models to predict emissions of HDP and global warming commitment (GWC) from cooking stoves in China, that rely on simple survey information on stove and fuel use that may be incorporated into national surveys. Stepwise regression models predicted 66% of the variance in global warming commitment (CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, TNMHC) per 1 MJ delivered energy due to emissions from these stoves if survey information on fuel type was available. Subsequently if stove type is known, stepwise regression models predicted 73% of the variance. Integrated assessment of policies to change stove or fuel type requires that implications for environmental impacts, energy efficiency, global warming and human exposures to HDP emissions can be evaluated. Frequently, this involves measurement of TSP or CO as the major HDPs. Incorporation of this information into models to predict GWC predicted 79% and 78% of the variance respectively. Clearly, however, the complexity of making multiple measurements in conjunction with a national survey would be both expensive and time consuming. Thus, models to predict HDP using simple survey information, and with measurement of either CO/CO2 or TSP/CO2 to predict emission factors for the other HDP have been derived. Stepwise regression models predicted 65% of the variance in emissions of total suspended particulate as grams of carbon (TSPC) per 1 MJ delivered if survey information on fuel and stove type was available and 74% if the CO/CO2 ratio was measured. Similarly stepwise regression models predicted 76% of the variance in COC emissions per MJ delivered with survey information on stove and fuel type and 85% if the TSPC/CO2 ratio was measured. Ultimately, with international agreements on emissions trading frameworks, similar models based on extensive databases of the fate of fuel carbon during combustion from representative household stoves would provide a mechanism for computing greenhouse credits in the residential sector as part of clean development mechanism frameworks and monitoring compliance to control regimes.}, }
@article {pmid12651485, year = {2000}, author = {Bigras, FJ}, title = {Selection of white spruce families in the context of climate change: heat tolerance.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {20}, number = {18}, pages = {1227-1234}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/20.18.1227}, pmid = {12651485}, issn = {1758-4469}, abstract = {To assess the responses and plasticity of white spruce seedlings (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) to high temperatures, 12 open-pollinated families differing in growth performance were exposed to a 30-min heat treatment of 42, 44, 46, 48, or 50 degrees C with or without heat preconditioning at 38 degrees C for 5 h. Damage was evaluated based on chlorophyll fluorescence parameters after heat preconditioning, after the heat treatments and during a 7-day recovery period. Visible needle damage was also evaluated after the heat treatments and 14 days later. Chlorophyll fluorescence parameters indicated that seedlings subjected to a heat treatment of 42-43 degrees C lost the ability to phosphorylate and donate water to photosystem II (PSII). A heat treatment of 44-46 degrees C severely limited the ability of the seedlings to use NADPH and ATP in the Calvin cycle. Based on visible needle damage, families with superior height-growth performance were more sensitive to heat stress than families with intermediate or inferior height-growth performance. Moreover, families with superior height-growth performance had low photochemical efficiencies in the light (DeltaF/F(m)') after heat treatment. Heat preconditioning increased the thermotolerance of the seedlings. However, the data suggest that white spruce seedlings exhibiting fast-growing characteristics under present conditions may not grow as well at higher temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid12651446, year = {2000}, author = {Linder, M}, title = {Developing adaptive forest management strategies to cope with climate change.}, journal = {Tree physiology}, volume = {20}, number = {5_6}, pages = {299-307}, doi = {10.1093/treephys/20.5-6.299}, pmid = {12651446}, issn = {1758-4469}, abstract = {Numerous investigations have indicated that projected climate change will impact strongly on forest growth and composition. To adapt managed forests to changing environmental conditions it may be necessary to modify traditional forest management strategies. An extended version of a forest gap model was applied to a managed forest district in northeastern Germany. The model was initialized with forest inventory data and run using routines devised to simulate three management scenarios: (1) maximized timber production, (2) climatically well-adapted forest composition, and (3) maximized tree species diversity. The strategies were compared with a baseline scenario of traditional management without any response to climate change. The comparisons were based on simulated wood production and species composition after 110 years of development. The results underline the important influence that management strategies have on forest growth. Forest management may adopt a variety of strategies to respond to the expected changes in climate. Process-oriented forest gap models can aid in the assessment of these strategies.}, }
@article {pmid12641900, year = {2003}, author = {Travis, JM}, title = {Climate change and habitat destruction: a deadly anthropogenic cocktail.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {270}, number = {1514}, pages = {467-473}, pmid = {12641900}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Climate change and habitat destruction are two of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. Lattice models have been used to investigate how hypothetical species with different characteristics respond to habitat loss. The main result shows that a sharp threshold in habitat availability exists below which a species rapidly becomes extinct. Here, a similar modelling approach is taken to establish what determines how species respond to climate change. A similar threshold exists for the rate of climate change as has been observed for habitat loss-patch occupancy remains high up to a critical rate of climate change, beyond which species extinction becomes likely. Habitat specialists, especially those of relatively poor colonizing ability are least able to keep pace with climate change. The interaction between climate change and habitat loss might be disastrous. During climate change, the habitat threshold occurs sooner. Similarly, species suffer more from climate change in a fragmented habitat.}, }
@article {pmid12639315, year = {2003}, author = {Visser, ME and Adriaensen, F and Van Balen, JH and Blondel, J and Dhondt, AA and Van Dongen, S and Du Feu, C and Ivankina, EV and Kerimov, AB and De Laet, J and Matthysen, E and McCleery, R and Orell, M and Thomson, DL}, title = {Variable responses to large-scale climate change in European Parus populations.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {270}, number = {1513}, pages = {367-372}, pmid = {12639315}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate ; Ecology ; Europe ; Models, Biological ; Nesting Behavior/physiology ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Songbirds/*physiology ; *Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Spring temperatures in temperate regions have increased over the past 20 years and many organisms have responded to this increase by advancing the timing of their growth and reproduction. However, not all populations show an advancement of phenology. Understanding why some populations advance and others do not will give us insight into the possible constraints and selection pressures on the advancement of phenology. By combining two decades of data on 24 populations of tits (Parus sp.) from six European countries, we show that the phenological response to large-scale changes in spring temperature varies across a species' range, even between populations situated close to each other. We show that this variation cannot be fully explained by variation in the temperature change during the pre- and post-laying periods, as recently suggested. Instead, we find evidence for a link between rising temperatures and the frequency of second broods, which results in complex shifts in the laying dates of first clutches. Our results emphasize the need to consider links between different life-history parameters in order to predict the ecological consequences of large-scale climate changes.}, }
@article {pmid12637722, year = {2003}, author = {Schulze, ED and Mollicone, D and Achard, F and Matteucci, G and Federici, S and Eva, HD and Valentini, R}, title = {Climate change. Making deforestation pay under the Kyoto Protocol?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {299}, number = {5613}, pages = {1669}, doi = {10.1126/science.1079024}, pmid = {12637722}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Bolivia ; Brazil ; *Carbon ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; *Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid12626275, year = {2002}, author = {Reay, DS}, title = {Costing climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {360}, number = {1801}, pages = {2947-2961}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2002.1063}, pmid = {12626275}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects/analysis/economics ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects/economics/prevention &amp; control ; Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Climate ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fluorocarbons/adverse effects/analysis/economics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Life Style ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Debate over how, when, and even whether man-made greenhouse-gas emissions should be controlled has grown in intensity even faster than the levels of greenhouse gas in our atmosphere. Many argue that the costs involved in reducing emissions outweigh the potential economic damage of human-induced climate change. Here, existing cost-benefit analyses of greenhouse-gas reduction policies are examined, with a view to establishing whether any such global reductions are currently worthwhile. Potential for, and cost of, cutting our own individual greenhouse-gas emissions is then assessed. I find that many abatement strategies are able to deliver significant emission reductions at little or no net cost. Additionally, I find that there is huge potential for individuals to simultaneously cut their own greenhouse-gas emissions and save money. I conclude that cuts in global greenhouse-gas emissions, such as those of the Kyoto Protocol, cannot be justifiably dismissed as posing too large an economic burden.}, }
@article {pmid12626266, year = {2002}, author = {Arnold, N}, title = {Solar variability, coupling between atmospheric layers and climate change.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {360}, number = {1801}, pages = {2787-2804}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2002.1091}, pmid = {12626266}, issn = {1364-503X}, abstract = {One of the enduring puzzles of atmospheric physics is the extent to which changes in the Sun can influence the behaviour of the climate system. While solar-flux changes tend to be relatively modest, a number of observations of atmospheric parameters indicates a disproportionately large response. Global-scale models of the coupled middle and upper atmosphere have provided new insights into some of the mechanisms that may be responsible for the amplification of the solar signal. In particular, modification of the transport of heat and chemicals such as ozone by waves during periods of solar activity has been shown to make an important contribution to the climate of the stratosphere and mesosphere. In this paper, a review of some of the recent advances in understanding the coupling between atmospheric layers and how this work relates to Sun-weather relations and climate change in the troposphere will be presented, along with a discussion of some of the challenges that remain.}, }
@article {pmid12621419, year = {2003}, author = {van Noordwijk, AJ}, title = {Climate change: The earlier bird.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {422}, number = {6927}, pages = {29}, doi = {10.1038/422029a}, pmid = {12621419}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate ; Food Chain ; *Seasons ; Time Factors ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid12611675, year = {2003}, author = {Kinney, J}, title = {Addressing global warming.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {111}, number = {3}, pages = {A144}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.111-a144a}, pmid = {12611675}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Politics ; Social Conditions ; *Social Welfare ; }, }
@article {pmid12606972, year = {2003}, author = {Allen, M}, title = {Liability for climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {421}, number = {6926}, pages = {891-892}, doi = {10.1038/421891a}, pmid = {12606972}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Compensation and Redress/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Liability, Legal/economics ; Risk ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid12592450, year = {2003}, author = {Gwebu, TD}, title = {Population, development, and waste management in Botswana: conceptual and policy implications for climate change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {348-354}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-002-2883-4}, pmid = {12592450}, issn = {0364-152X}, mesh = {Botswana ; Climate ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Population Dynamics ; *Refuse Disposal ; *Waste Disposal, Fluid ; }, abstract = {Based on government and other relevant documentation, this paper explores the conceptual linkage between population, development, and waste management in Botswana and the implications of this relationship for global climate change. Population is increasing, albeit at a decreasing rate. Spatially, the population is becoming more and more concentrated as the rates and level of urbanization increase. Economic growth has remained consistently high. The combined effect of population dynamics and economic development are having a noticeable imprint on the environment in the form of increased waste generation. Poor waste management poses a real threat to environmental sustainability in general and climate change in particular because of inadequate technology, weak institutional mechanisms to enforce regulations, and low levels of sensitization among the public to deal with the problem. Mitigation measures are suggested to minimize the negative effects of waste management on climate change.}, }
@article {pmid12591254, year = {2003}, author = {Chen, X and Li, BL}, title = {Effect of global climate change and human disturbances on tree diversity of the forest regenerating from clear-cuts of mixed broadleaved Korean pine forest in Northeast China.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {51}, number = {3}, pages = {215-226}, doi = {10.1016/S0045-6535(02)00809-3}, pmid = {12591254}, issn = {0045-6535}, mesh = {China ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Studies on the combined effects of global climate change and human disturbances are important for biodiversity conservation and natural resources management. Here we use the modified forest dynamics model to simulate the tree diversity change of a typical mixed broadleaved Korean pine forest regenerating from clear-cuts in Northeast China in response to global climate change, double concentration of CO(2) and human disturbances during the next 50 years. We consider the following climate change scenario: the annual temperature will increase 2 degrees C, the annual precipitation will increase 10% and CO(2) concentration will increase to 700 microll(-1) linearly in 50 years. Five kinds of human disturbances under climate change are considered: logging which removes all trees with diameter at the breast height of more than 50 cm; removing all individuals of any one species; and removing all individuals of shade tolerant, shade intolerant and medium type tree species, respectively. We find that the index of proportional representation of species (alpha index) for the forest growing from clear-cuts increases significantly under climate change, but decreases under climate change plus logging. The index of changing representation of species (beta(c) index) increases significantly under climate change and climate change plus logging. When any one species is removed alpha diversity of the forest growing from clear-cuts changes significantly under climate change, but beta(c) index remains almost the same. When all individuals of shade tolerant species, shade intolerant species, or medium type species are removed, respectively, alpha diversity decreases, but beta(c) diversity changes in more complicated ways. The implications of these results for preserving tree diversity in this type of forest are also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid12589347, year = {2003}, author = {Ziska, LH and Gebhard, DE and Frenz, DA and Faulkner, S and Singer, BD and Straka, JG}, title = {Cities as harbingers of climate change: common ragweed, urbanization, and public health.}, journal = {The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology}, volume = {111}, number = {2}, pages = {290-295}, doi = {10.1067/mai.2003.53}, pmid = {12589347}, issn = {0091-6749}, mesh = {Allergens/isolation &amp; purification ; Ambrosia/growth &amp; development/*immunology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Pollen/immunology ; Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/etiology ; Urban Health ; *Urbanization ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Although controlled laboratory experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the sensitivity of allergenic pollen production to future climatic change (ie, increased CO(2) and temperature), no in situ data are available.<br><br>OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this investigation was to assess, under realistic conditions, the impact of climatic change on pollen production of common ragweed, a ubiquitous weed occurring in disturbed sites and the principal source of pollen associated with seasonal allergenic rhinitis.<br><br>METHODS: We used an existing temperature/CO(2) gradient between urban and rural areas to examine the quantitative and qualitative aspects of ragweed growth and pollen production.<br><br>RESULTS: For 2000 and 2001, average daily (24-hour) values of CO(2) concentration and air temperature within an urban environment were 30% to 31% and 1.8 degrees to 2.0 degrees C (3.4 degrees to 3.6 degrees F) higher than those at a rural site. This result is consistent with most global change scenarios. Ragweed grew faster, flowered earlier, and produced significantly greater above-ground biomass and ragweed pollen at urban locations than at rural locations.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Here we show that 2 aspects of future global environmental change, air temperature and atmospheric CO(2), are already significantly higher in urban relative to rural areas. In general, we show that regional urbanization-induced temperature/CO(2) increases similar to those associated with projected global climatic change might already have public health consequences; we suggest that urbanization, per se, might provide a low-cost alternative to current experimental methods evaluating plant responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid12561449, year = {2003}, author = {Mukerjee, M}, title = {Greenhouse suits. Litigation becomes a tool against global warming.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {288}, number = {2}, pages = {14-15}, pmid = {12561449}, issn = {0036-8733}, }
@article {pmid12560516, year = {2003}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. A perfect ocean for four years of globe-girdling drought.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {299}, number = {5607}, pages = {636}, doi = {10.1126/science.299.5607.636}, pmid = {12560516}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid12540254, year = {2003}, author = {Bunyavanich, S and Landrigan, CP and McMichael, AJ and Epstein, PR}, title = {The impact of climate change on child health.}, journal = {Ambulatory pediatrics : the official journal of the Ambulatory Pediatric Association}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {44-52}, doi = {10.1367/1539-4409(2003)003&lt;0044:tiocco&gt;2.0.co;2}, pmid = {12540254}, issn = {1530-1567}, mesh = {Age Factors ; Child ; *Climate ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Human activity has contributed to climate change. The relationship between climate and child health has not been well investigated. This review discusses the role of climate change on child health and suggests 3 ways in which this relationship may manifest. First, environmental changes associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases can lead to respiratory diseases, sunburn, melanoma, and immunosuppression. Second, climate change may directly cause heat stroke, drowning, gastrointestinal diseases, and psychosocial maldevelopment. Third, ecologic alterations triggered by climate change can increase rates of malnutrition, allergies and exposure to mycotoxins, vector-borne diseases (malaria, dengue, encephalitides, Lyme disease), and emerging infectious diseases. Further climate change is likely, given global industrial and political realities. Proactive and preventive physician action, research focused on the differential effects of climate change on subpopulations including children, and policy advocacy on the individual and federal levels could contain climate change and inform appropriate prevention and response.}, }
@article {pmid12531980, year = {2003}, author = {Kennedy, D}, title = {The policy drought on climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {299}, number = {5605}, pages = {309}, doi = {10.1126/science.299.5605.309}, pmid = {12531980}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid12522240, year = {2003}, author = {Shindell, D}, title = {Climate change. Whither Arctic climate?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {299}, number = {5604}, pages = {215-216}, doi = {10.1126/science.1080855}, pmid = {12522240}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid12520274, year = {2003}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change: The oresmen.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {421}, number = {6919}, pages = {109-110}, doi = {10.1038/421109a}, pmid = {12520274}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; Ecosystem ; Eukaryota/*metabolism ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Iron/*metabolism ; Marine Biology ; Models, Biological ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton/metabolism ; Seawater/*chemistry/parasitology ; }, }
@article {pmid12515354, year = {2002}, author = {Pachauri, R}, title = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): keynote address. 26 August-4 September 2002. UN World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, South Africa.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {436-438}, doi = {10.1007/BF02987598}, pmid = {12515354}, issn = {0944-1344}, mesh = {*Climate ; Disasters ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Models, Theoretical ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid12515342, year = {2002}, author = {Harnisch, J and de Jager, D and Gale, J and Stobbel, O}, title = {Halogenated compounds and climate change: future emission levels and reduction costs.}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {369-374}, doi = {10.1007/BF02987583}, pmid = {12515342}, issn = {0944-1344}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects/analysis/economics ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects/economics/prevention &amp; control ; Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; Fluorocarbons/adverse effects/analysis/economics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Hydrocarbons, Fluorinated/adverse effects/analysis/economics ; Hydrocarbons, Halogenated/*adverse effects/analysis/economics ; Models, Chemical ; Ozone ; Sulfur Hexafluoride/adverse effects/analysis/economics ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVES: This work assesses the contribution to climate change resulting from emissions of the group of halogenated greenhouse gases.<br><br>METHODS: A bottom-up emission model covering 22 technological sectors in four major regions is described. Emission estimates for 1996 and projection for 2010 and 2020 are presented. The costs for deep cuts into projected emission levels are calculated.<br><br>RESULTS: The substances covered by this study have contributed emissions of 1100 +/- 800 MT CO2 equivalents per year in 1996. In terms of their relative contribution to emissions of CO2 equivalents, this corresponds to 3 +/- 2% of global emissions of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The wide range of uncertainty is due to the poorly quantified net global warming potential of the ozone depleting substances, which have an indirect cooling effect on climate through the destruction of stratospheric ozone. For annual emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (which are regulated under the Kyoto Protocol and for which global warming potentials are well defined), the relative contribution is projected to increase to 2% (600 MT CO2 eq.) of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2010. This trend is expected to continue, emissions are projected to grow to a contribution of roughly 3% (870 MT CO2 eq.) in 2020 compared to 0.9% (300 MT CO2 eq.) in 1996. For HFCs, PFCs and SF6, this study identifies global emission reduction potentials of 260 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2010 and 640 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2020 at below US$ 50 per ton. These values correspond to roughly 40% and 75% of projected emissions in 2010 and 2020, respectively.}, }
@article {pmid12513329, year = {2002}, author = {Campos, D and Fort, J and Llebot, JE}, title = {Reaction-diffusion wave fronts: multigeneration biological species under climate change.}, journal = {Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics}, volume = {66}, number = {6 Pt 1}, pages = {062901}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevE.66.062901}, pmid = {12513329}, issn = {1539-3755}, abstract = {A generalization of reaction-diffusion models to multigeneration biological species is presented. It is based on more complex random walks than those in previous approaches. The new model is developed analytically up to infinite order. Our predictions for the speed agree to experimental data for several butterfly species better than existing models. The predicted dependence for the speed on the number of generations per year allows us to explain the change in speed observed for a specific invasion.}, }
@article {pmid12511952, year = {2003}, author = {Root, TL and Price, JT and Hall, KR and Schneider, SH and Rosenzweig, C and Pounds, JA}, title = {Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {421}, number = {6918}, pages = {57-60}, doi = {10.1038/nature01333}, pmid = {12511952}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild/*physiology ; Bias ; *Biological Evolution ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 degrees C and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate. Although species have responded to climatic changes throughout their evolutionary history, a primary concern for wild species and their ecosystems is this rapid rate of change. We gathered information on species and global warming from 143 studies for our meta-analyses. These analyses reveal a consistent temperature-related shift, or 'fingerprint', in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees. Indeed, more than 80% of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant populations. The synergism of rapid temperature rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions.}, }
@article {pmid12511946, year = {2003}, author = {Parmesan, C and Yohe, G}, title = {A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {421}, number = {6918}, pages = {37-42}, doi = {10.1038/nature01286}, pmid = {12511946}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Climate ; Databases, Factual ; *Ecosystem ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Probability ; }, abstract = {Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.}, }
@article {pmid12511629, year = {2003}, author = {Jensen, MN}, title = {Climate change. Consensus on ecological impacts remains elusive.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {299}, number = {5603}, pages = {38}, doi = {10.1126/science.299.5603.38}, pmid = {12511629}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Meta-Analysis as Topic ; Models, Statistical ; *Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Research Design ; Selection Bias ; Statistics as Topic ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid12493904, year = {2002}, author = {Quay, P}, title = {Climate change. Ups and downs of CO2 uptake.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {298}, number = {5602}, pages = {2344}, doi = {10.1126/science.1079444}, pmid = {12493904}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atlantic Ocean ; Atmosphere ; Bermuda ; Carbon/analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis/metabolism ; *Climate ; Models, Theoretical ; Photosynthesis ; Seasons ; Seawater/*chemistry ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid12491735, year = {2002}, author = {Li, GQ and Zheng, YR}, title = {Characteristics of regional climate change and pattern analysis on Ordos Plateau.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {568-576}, pmid = {12491735}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {China ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The characteristics of precipitation, temperature and their combination determine the special ecological environment pattern of Ordos Plateau. Analyzing its evolutionary trend attributes to understanding the succession process of the ecological environment of Ordos Plateau and has crucial instructional significance on the ecological restoration research being conducted in this region. Four time scales, arranging from ten days, one month, one season growing season contrasting to non-growing season) to one year were adopted to analyze the climate data which included nearly 30 years and were collected by eight weather stations on Ordos Plateau. The results indicated that the mean annual temperature and the mean monthly temperature of February, September and December, had increased significantly during the late 30 years. The annual precipitation did not show significant changes but its distribution pattern had changed obviously. The ratio of precipitation of major growing season (May-October) to annual precipitation had increased distinctively, and five counties' precipitation reached statistically significant level. And the ratio of precipitation of latter growing season (September) to one year decreased significantly while the ratio of non-growing season (November-next April) to one year changed insignificantly. The results showed that maybe the interaction of increased mean temperature and insignificant change of precipitation in non-growing season was one of the reasons why the desertification of the region was deteriorating in recent years. Using some factors closely relating to vegetation succession such as mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, distributive pattern of precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the warmest month, mean temperature of growing season, precipitation of growing season, potential evapotranspiration(PET) and radiative dryness index(RDI), to synthetically analyze the climate characteristics of Ordos Plateau. The regionalized Ordos Plateau to three synthetical climate types were recognized as follows: Type I, semi-humid and low evaporation(including Jungar Banner, Dongsheng City and Ejin Horo Banner), Type II, semi-arid, semi-humid and moderate evaporation(including Uxin Banner and Dalad Banner), Type III, arid and high evaporation(including Hanggin Banner, Otog Banner and Otog Qian Banner).}, }
@article {pmid12487357, year = {2002}, author = {Rank, NE and Dahlhoff, EP}, title = {Allele frequency shifts in response to climate change and physiological consequences of allozyme variation in a montane insect.}, journal = {Evolution; international journal of organic evolution}, volume = {56}, number = {11}, pages = {2278-2289}, doi = {10.1111/j.0014-3820.2002.tb00151.x}, pmid = {12487357}, issn = {0014-3820}, mesh = {Animals ; California ; *Climate ; Coleoptera/genetics/*physiology ; Female ; *Gene Frequency ; Glucose-6-Phosphate Isomerase/genetics ; Insect Proteins/*genetics ; Isocitrate Dehydrogenase/genetics ; Isoenzymes/*genetics ; Male ; Phosphoglucomutase/genetics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Rapid changes in climate may impose strong selective pressures on organisms. Evolutionary responses to climate change have been observed in natural populations, yet no example has been documented for a metabolic enzyme locus. Furthermore, few studies have linked physiological responses to stress with allozyme genotypic variation. We quantified changes in allele frequency between 1988 and 1996 at three allozyme loci (isocitrate dehydrogenase, Idh; phosphoglucose isomerase, Pgi; and phosphoglucomutase, Pgm) for the leaf beetle Chrysomela aeneicollis in the Bishop Creek region of the Sierra Nevada of California (2900-3300 m). Beetles often experience high daytime (> 32 degrees C) and extremely low nighttime (< -5 degrees C) temperatures during summer. Bishop Creek weather station data indicated that conditions were unusually dry before 1988, and that conditions were cool and wet during the years preceding the 1996 collection. We found directional changes in allele frequency at Pgi (11% increase in the Pgi-1 allele), but not at Idh or Pgm. We also found that physiological response to thermal extremes depended on Pgi genotype. Pgi 1-1 individuals induced expression of a 70-kD heat shock protein (HSP) at lower temperatures than 1-4 or 4-4 individuals, and 1-1 individuals expressed higher levels of HSP70 after laboratory exposure to temperatures routinely experienced in nature. Survival after nighttime laboratory exposure to subzero temperatures depended on gender, previous exposure to cold, and Pgi genotype. Females expressed higher levels of HSP70 than males after exposure to heat, and recovery by female Pgi 1-1 homozygotes after exposure to cold (-5 degrees C) was significantly better than 1-4 or 4-4 genotypes. These data suggest that the cooler climate of the mid-1990s may have caused an increase in frequency of the Pgi-1 allele, due to a more robust physiological response to cold by Pgi 1-1 and 1-4 genotypes.}, }
@article {pmid12482536, year = {2002}, author = {Hay, SI and Rogers, DJ and Randolph, SE and Stern, DI and Cox, J and Shanks, GD and Snow, RW}, title = {Hot topic or hot air? Climate change and malaria resurgence in East African highlands.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {18}, number = {12}, pages = {530-534}, pmid = {12482536}, issn = {1471-4922}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 056642/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; Animals ; *Climate ; Drug Resistance, Microbial ; Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Incidence ; Malaria, Falciparum/*epidemiology/transmission ; Mosquito Control/trends ; Plasmodium falciparum/drug effects ; }, abstract = {Climate has a significant impact on malaria incidence and we have predicted that forecast climate changes might cause some modifications to the present global distribution of malaria close to its present boundaries. However, it is quite another matter to attribute recent resurgences of malaria in the highlands of East Africa to climate change. Analyses of malaria time-series at such sites have shown that malaria incidence has increased in the absence of co-varying changes in climate. We find the widespread increase in resistance of the malaria parasite to drugs and the decrease in vector control activities to be more likely driving forces behind the malaria resurgence.}, }
@article {pmid12478282, year = {2002}, author = {Patz, JA and Hulme, M and Rosenzweig, C and Mitchell, TD and Goldberg, RA and Githeko, AK and Lele, S and McMichael, AJ and Le Sueur, D}, title = {Climate change: Regional warming and malaria resurgence.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {420}, number = {6916}, pages = {627-8; discussion 628}, doi = {10.1038/420627a}, pmid = {12478282}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Malaria/*epidemiology ; Regression Analysis ; Reproducibility of Results ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid12478251, year = {2002}, author = {Powell, K}, title = {Bush climate-change plan gets cool response.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {420}, number = {6916}, pages = {595}, doi = {10.1038/420595a}, pmid = {12478251}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Decision Making ; Ecology ; *Federal Government ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Research/economics/*legislation &amp; jurisprudence/*standards/trends ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid12463973, year = {2002}, author = {McMichael, AJ and Woodruff, RE}, title = {Climate change and human health: what do we know?.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {177}, number = {11-12}, pages = {590-591}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.2002.tb04976.x}, pmid = {12463973}, issn = {0025-729X}, mesh = {Australia ; Economics ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid12460493, year = {2002}, author = {Pielke, RA and Marland, G and Betts, RA and Chase, TN and Eastman, JL and Niles, JO and Niyogi, DD and Running, SW}, title = {The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {360}, number = {1797}, pages = {1705-1719}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2002.1027}, pmid = {12460493}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; *Biomass ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Earth, Planet ; Ecosystem ; *Environment ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {Our paper documents that land-use change impacts regional and global climate through the surface-energy budget, as well as through the carbon cycle. The surface-energy budget effects may be more important than the carbon-cycle effects. However, land-use impacts on climate cannot be adequately quantified with the usual metric of 'global warming potential'. A new metric is needed to quantify the human disturbance of the Earth's surface-energy budget. This 'regional climate change potential' could offer a new metric for developing a more inclusive climate protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a mechanism to monitor potential local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity.}, }
@article {pmid12460487, year = {2002}, author = {Sandor, RL and Bettelheim, EC and Swingland, IR}, title = {An overview of a free-market approach to climate change and conservation.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences}, volume = {360}, number = {1797}, pages = {1607-1620}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2002.1022}, pmid = {12460487}, issn = {1364-503X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*economics/prevention &amp; control ; Carbon Dioxide/economics/metabolism ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics ; Economic Competition/*economics ; Ecosystem ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Marketing/methods ; }, abstract = {This paper describes the convergence of environmental and financial markets, reviews the evolution of market-based environmental programmes as an example of the seven-stage evolutionary process witnessed in a variety of markets and summarizes the emergence of greenhouse-gas-mitigation markets and their potential role in advancing land stewardship, biodiversity and other environmental services. Emissions trading has been developed to meet the demand to reduce pollution while avoiding economic disruption. Consistent with the seven-stage pattern of market evolution, the US programme to reduce the damage from acid rain established a standardized environmental commodity, developed 'evidence of ownership' necessary for financial instruments and provided the infrastructure to efficiently transfer title. The success of the system in reducing pollution at low cost has provided a model for other market-based environmental protection initiatives. The demand for cost-effective action to reduce the threat of climate change has initiated the same evolutionary process for markets to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Many of the land- and forest-management practices that can capture and store atmospheric CO(2) can also provide other environmental benefits, such as biodiversity preservation and enhanced water quality. The presence of a carbon-trading market will introduce a clear financial value for capture and mitigation of CO(2) emissions, thus introducing a new source of funding for land stewardship and forest rehabilitation. The market is now emerging through a variety of 'bottom-up' developments being undertaken through governmental, multilateral, private-sector and non-governmental-organization initiatives. The extension of markets to other emerging environmental issues is now underway, and the linkages between environmental sustainability and capital markets are being more deeply understood. The early evidence indicates that environmental sustainability can be compatible with maximization of shareholder value.}, }
@article {pmid12459737, year = {2002}, author = {Moore, GW and Holdsworth, G and Alverson, K}, title = {Climate change in the North Pacific region over the past three centuries.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {420}, number = {6914}, pages = {401-403}, doi = {10.1038/nature01229}, pmid = {12459737}, issn = {0028-0836}, abstract = {The relatively short length of most instrumental climate records restricts the study of climate variability, and it is therefore essential to extend the record into the past with the help of proxy data. Only since the late 1940s have atmospheric data been available that are sufficient in quality and spatial resolution to identify the dominant patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific North America pattern and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Here we present a 301-year snow accumulation record from an ice core at a height of 5,340 m above sea level-from Mount Logan, in northwestern North America. This record shows features that are closely linked with the Pacific North America pattern for the period of instrumental data availability. Our record extends back in time to cover the period from the closing stages of the Little Ice Age to the warmest decade in the past millennium. We find a positive, accelerating trend in snow accumulation after the middle of the nineteenth century. This trend is paralleled by a warming over northwestern North America which has been associated with secular changes in both the Pacific North America pattern and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.}, }
@article {pmid12447486, year = {2002}, author = {Pritchard, HW}, title = {Cryopreservation and global warming.}, journal = {Cryo letters}, volume = {23}, number = {5}, pages = {281-282}, pmid = {12447486}, issn = {0143-2044}, mesh = {Cryopreservation/statistics &amp; numerical data/*trends ; Publications/statistics &amp; numerical data/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid12445327, year = {2002}, author = {Laporte, MF and Duchesne, LC and Wetzel, S}, title = {Effect of rainfall patterns on soil surface CO2 efflux, soil moisture, soil temperature and plant growth in a grassland ecosystem of northern Ontario, Canada: implications for climate change.}, journal = {BMC ecology}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {10}, pmid = {12445327}, issn = {1472-6785}, mesh = {*Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Ontario ; Plant Development ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; *Rain ; Soil/*analysis ; Temperature ; Water/analysis ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The effect of rainfall patterns on soil surface CO2 efflux, soil moisture, soil temperature and plant growth was investigated in a grassland ecosystem of northern Ontario, Canada, where climatic change is predicted to introduce new precipitation regimes. Rain shelters were established in a fallow field consisting mainly of Trifolium hybridum L., Trifolium pratense L., and Phleum pratense L. Daytime ambient air temperatures within the shelters increased by an average of 1.9 degrees C similar to predicted future increases in air temperatures for this region. To simulate six precipitation regimes which cover the maximum range to be expected under climate change, a portable irrigation system was designed to modify the frequency of monthly rainfall events with a constant delivery rate of water, while maintaining contemporary average precipitation volumes. Controls consisted of blocks irrigated with frequencies and total monthly precipitation consistent with the 25 year average rainfall for this location.<br><br>RESULTS: Seasonal soil moisture correlated with soil surface CO2 efflux (R = 0.756, P < 0.001) and above ground plant biomass (R = 0.447, P = 0.029). By reducing irrigation frequency, soil surface CO2 efflux decreased by 80%, P < 0.001, while soil moisture content decreased by 42%, P < 0.001.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Manipulating the number of precipitation events and inter-rainfall intervals, while maintaining monthly rainfall averages impacted CO2 efflux and plant growth. Even with monthly rainfall averages that are similar to contemporary monthly precipitation averages, decreasing the number of monthly rainfall events reduced soil surface CO2 efflux and plant growth through soil moisture deficits. Although many have speculated that climate change will increase ecosystem productivity, our results show that a reduction in the number of monthly rainfall events while maintaining monthly averages will limit carbon dynamics.}, }
@article {pmid12434040, year = {2002}, author = {Ohmura, A and Wild, M}, title = {Climate change. Is the hydrological cycle accelerating?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {298}, number = {5597}, pages = {1345-1346}, doi = {10.1126/science.1078972}, pmid = {12434040}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid12424173, year = {2002}, author = {Patz, JA and Kovats, RS}, title = {Hotspots in climate change and human health.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {325}, number = {7372}, pages = {1094-1098}, pmid = {12424173}, issn = {1756-1833}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Disasters ; *Environmental Health ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology ; Nutrition Disorders/epidemiology ; Topography, Medical ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid12422019, year = {2002}, author = {Stachowicz, JJ and Terwin, JR and Whitlatch, RB and Osman, RW}, title = {Linking climate change and biological invasions: Ocean warming facilitates nonindigenous species invasions.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {99}, number = {24}, pages = {15497-15500}, pmid = {12422019}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {*Animal Migration ; Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Ciona intestinalis/physiology ; *Climate ; Connecticut ; Ecosystem ; Seasons ; *Seawater ; Species Specificity ; *Temperature ; Urochordata/classification/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The spread of exotic species and climate change are among the most serious global environmental threats. Each independently causes considerable ecological damage, yet few data are available to assess whether changing climate might facilitate invasions by favoring introduced over native species. Here, we compare our long-term record of weekly sessile marine invertebrate recruitment with interannual variation in water temperature to assess the likely effect of climate change on the success and spread of introduced species. For the three most abundant introduced species of ascidian (sea squirt), the timing of the initiation of recruitment was strongly negatively correlated with winter water temperature, indicating that invaders arrived earlier in the season in years with warmer winters. Total recruitment of introduced species during the following summer also was positively correlated with winter water temperature. In contrast, the magnitude of native ascidian recruitment was negatively correlated with winter temperature (more recruitment in colder years) and the timing of native recruitment was unaffected. In manipulative laboratory experiments, two introduced compound ascidians grew faster than a native species, but only at temperatures near the maximum observed in summer. These data suggest that the greatest effects of climate change on biotic communities may be due to changing maximum and minimum temperatures rather than annual means. By giving introduced species an earlier start, and increasing the magnitude of their growth and recruitment relative to natives, global warming may facilitate a shift to dominance by nonnative species, accelerating the homogenization of the global biota.}, }
@article {pmid12411702, year = {2002}, author = {Helmuth, B and Harley, CD and Halpin, PM and O'Donnell, M and Hofmann, GE and Blanchette, CA}, title = {Climate change and latitudinal patterns of intertidal thermal stress.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {298}, number = {5595}, pages = {1015-1017}, doi = {10.1126/science.1076814}, pmid = {12411702}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Bivalvia/*physiology ; *Body Temperature ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Geography ; Pacific Ocean ; Pacific States ; Seasons ; *Seawater ; Temperature ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {The interaction of climate and the timing of low tides along the West Coast of the United States creates a complex mosaic of thermal environments, in which northern sites can be more thermally stressful than southern sites. Thus, climate change may not lead to a poleward shift in the distribution of intertidal organisms, as has been proposed, but instead will likely cause localized extinctions at a series of "hot spots." Patterns of exposure to extreme climatic conditions are temporally variable, and tidal predictions suggest that in the next 3 to 5 years "hot spots" are likely to appear at several northern sites.}, }
@article {pmid12399589, year = {2002}, author = {Núñez, L and Grosjean, M and Cartajena, I}, title = {Human occupations and climate change in the Puna de Atacama, Chile.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {298}, number = {5594}, pages = {821-824}, doi = {10.1126/science.1076449}, pmid = {12399589}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Archaeology ; Chile ; *Climate ; Desert Climate ; *Emigration and Immigration ; Environment ; Fossils ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Widespread evidence for human occupation of the Atacama Desert, 20 degrees to 25 degrees S in northern Chile, has been found from 13,000 calibrated 14C years before the present (cal yr B.P.) to 9500 cal yr B.P., and again after 4500 cal yr B.P. Initial human occupation coincided with a change from very dry environments to humid environments. More than 39 open early Archaic campsites at elevations above 3600 meters show that hunters lived around late glacial/early Holocene paleolakes on the Altiplano. Cessation of the use of the sites between 9500 and 4500 cal yr B.P. is associated with drying of the lakes. The mid-Holocene collapse of human occupation is also recorded in cave deposits. One cave contained Pleistocene fauna associated with human artifacts. Faunal diversity was highest during the humid early Holocene.}, }
@article {pmid12386332, year = {2002}, author = {Thompson, LG and Mosley-Thompson, E and Davis, ME and Henderson, KA and Brecher, HH and Zagorodnov, VS and Mashiotta, TA and Lin, PN and Mikhalenko, VN and Hardy, DR and Beer, J}, title = {Kilimanjaro ice core records: evidence of holocene climate change in tropical Africa.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {298}, number = {5593}, pages = {589-593}, doi = {10.1126/science.1073198}, pmid = {12386332}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Six ice cores from Kilimanjaro provide an approximately 11.7-thousand-year record of Holocene climate and environmental variability for eastern equatorial Africa, including three periods of abrupt climate change: approximately 8.3, approximately 5.2, and approximately 4 thousand years ago (ka). The latter is coincident with the "First Dark Age," the period of the greatest historically recorded drought in tropical Africa. Variable deposition of F- and Na+ during the African Humid Period suggests rapidly fluctuating lake levels between approximately 11.7 and 4 ka. Over the 20th century, the areal extent of Kilimanjaro's ice fields has decreased approximately 80%, and if current climatological conditions persist, the remaining ice fields are likely to disappear between 2015 and 2020.}, }
@article {pmid12374870, year = {2002}, author = {Benning, TL and LaPointe, D and Atkinson, CT and Vitousek, PM}, title = {Interactions of climate change with biological invasions and land use in the Hawaiian Islands: Modeling the fate of endemic birds using a geographic information system.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {99}, number = {22}, pages = {14246-14249}, pmid = {12374870}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Animals ; Birds ; Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Endemic Diseases ; *Geographic Information Systems ; Geography ; Greenhouse Effect ; Hawaii/epidemiology ; Malaria, Avian/*epidemiology ; *Models, Biological ; *Models, Statistical ; Temperature ; Trees ; }, abstract = {The Hawaiian honeycreepers (Drepanidae) represent a superb illustration of evolutionary radiation, with a single colonization event giving rise to 19 extant and at least 10 extinct species [Curnutt, J. &amp; Pimm, S. (2001) Stud. Avian Biol. 22, 15-30]. They also represent a dramatic example of anthropogenic extinction. Crop and pasture land has replaced their forest habitat, and human introductions of predators and diseases, particularly of mosquitoes and avian malaria, has eliminated them from the remaining low- and mid-elevation forests. Landscape analyses of three high-elevation forest refuges show that anthropogenic climate change is likely to combine with past land-use changes and biological invasions to drive several of the remaining species to extinction, especially on the islands of Kauai and Hawaii.}, }
@article {pmid12374058, year = {2002}, author = {Skre, O and Baxter, R and Crawford, RM and Callaghan, TV and Fedorkov, A}, title = {How will the tundra-taiga interface respond to climate change?.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {Spec No 12}, number = {}, pages = {37-46}, pmid = {12374058}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Cold Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/statistics &amp; numerical data/trends ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollution/adverse effects/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Europe ; Fires ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Russia ; Seasons ; Snow ; Soil ; Trees/*physiology ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The intuitive and logical answer to the question of how the tundra-taiga interface will react to global warming is that it should move north and this is mirrored by many models of potential treeline migration. Northward movement may be the eventual outcome if climatic warming persists over centuries or millennia. However, closer examination of the tundra-taiga interface across its circumpolar extent reveals a more complex situation. The regional climatic history of the tundra-taiga interface is highly varied, and consequently it is to be expected that the forest tundra boundary zone will respond differently to climate change depending on local variations in climate, evolutionary history, soil development, and hydrology. Investigations reveal considerable stability at present in the position of the treeline and while there may be a long-term advance northwards there are oceanic regions where climatic warming may result in a retreat southwards due to increased bog development. Reinforcing this trend is an increasing human impact, particularly in the forest tundra of Russia, which forces the limit of the forested areas southwards. Local variations will therefore require continued observation and research, as they will be of considerable importance economically as well as for ecology and conservation.}, }
@article {pmid12370441, year = {2002}, author = {Winkler, DW and Dunn, PO and McCulloch, CE}, title = {Predicting the effects of climate change on avian life-history traits.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {99}, number = {21}, pages = {13595-13599}, pmid = {12370441}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; Models, Biological ; North America ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Songbirds/*physiology ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Across North America, tree swallows have advanced their mean date of clutch initiation (lay date) by approximately 9 days over the past 30 years, apparently in response to climate change. In a sample of 2,881 nest records collected by the lay public from 1959 to 1991, we examined whether clutch size has also responded to climate change. We found that clutch size is strongly related to lay date, both within and among years, and there has been no significant temporal variation in the slopes or intercepts of the clutch-size/lay-date regressions. As a consequence, we expected increases in clutch size with advancement in lay date; however, we detected no such trend over time. The distributions of egg-laying dates were more constricted in the warmest (and earliest) years, suggesting that changes in mean clutch size might be constrained by changes in the distribution of laying dates. If spring temperatures continue to increase, we predict further reductions of variance in laying dates and relatively small increases in clutch size. Such constraints on life-history variation probably are common and need to be considered when modeling the effects of climate change on reproduction in natural populations. Predicting the long-term effects of constraints and interpreting changes in life-history traits require a better understanding of both adaptive and demographic effects of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid12369401, year = {2002}, author = {Herron, N and Davis, R and Jones, R}, title = {The effects of large-scale afforestation and climate change on water allocation in the Macquarie River catchment, NSW, Australia.}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {65}, number = {4}, pages = {369-381}, pmid = {12369401}, issn = {0301-4797}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Australia ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; Humans ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Trees ; Waste Disposal, Fluid ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Widespread afforestation has been proposed as one means of addressing the increasing dryland and stream salinity problem in Australia. However, modelling results presented here suggest that large-scale tree planting will substantially reduce river flows and impose costs on downstream water users if planted in areas of high runoff yield. Streamflow reductions in the Macquarie River, NSW, Australia are estimated for a number of tree planting scenarios and global warming forecasts. The modelling framework includes the Sacramento rainfall-runoff model and IQQM, a streamflow routing tool, as well as various global climate model outputs from which daily rainfall and potential evaporation data files have been generated in OzClim, a climate scenario generator. For a 10% increase in tree cover in the headwaters of the Macquarie, we estimate a 17% reduction in inflows to Burrendong Dam. The drying trend for a mid-range scenario of regional rainfall and potential evaporation caused by a global warming of 0.5 degree C may cause an additional 5% reduction in 2030. These flow reductions will decrease the frequency of bird-breeding events in Macquarie Marshes (a RAMSAR protected wetland) and reduce the security of supply to irrigation areas downstream. Inter-decadal climate variability is predicted to have a very significant influence on catchment hydrologic behaviour. A further 20% reduction in flows from the long-term historical mean is possible, should we move into an extended period of below average rainfall years, such as occurred in eastern Australia between 1890 and 1948. Because current consumptive water use is largely adapted to the wetter conditions of post 1949, a return to prolonged dry periods would cause significant environmental stress given the agricultural and domestic water developments that have been instituted.}, }
@article {pmid12353451, year = {2002}, author = {Charron, DF}, title = {Potential impacts of global warming and climate change on the epidemiology of zoonotic diseases in Canada.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {93}, number = {5}, pages = {334-335}, pmid = {12353451}, issn = {0008-4263}, mesh = {Animals ; Canada/epidemiology ; Disease Vectors ; Food Microbiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Seasons ; Water Microbiology ; Zoonoses/*epidemiology/parasitology ; }, }
@article {pmid12351774, year = {2002}, author = {Chameides, WL and Bergin, M}, title = {Climate change. Soot takes center stage.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {297}, number = {5590}, pages = {2214-2215}, doi = {10.1126/science.1076866}, pmid = {12351774}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid12324278, year = {2002}, author = {Grace, J and Berninger, F and Nagy, L}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the tree line.}, journal = {Annals of botany}, volume = {90}, number = {4}, pages = {537-544}, pmid = {12324278}, issn = {0305-7364}, mesh = {*Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environment ; Europe ; Photosynthesis/physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The possible effects of climate change on the advance of the tree line are considered. As temperature, elevated CO(2) and nitrogen deposition co-vary, it is impossible to disentangle their impacts without performing experiments. However, it does seem very unlikely that photosynthesis per se and, by implication, factors that directly influence photosynthesis, such as elevated CO(2), will be as important as those factors which influence the capacity of the tree to use the products of photosynthesis, such as temperature. Moreover, temperature limits growth more severely than it limits photosynthesis over the temperature range 5-20 degrees C. If it is assumed that growth and reproduction are controlled by temperature, a rapid advance of the tree line would be predicted. Indeed, some authors have provided photographic evidence and remotely sensed data that suggest this is, in fact, occurring. In regions inhabited by grazing animals, the advance of the tree line will be curtailed, although growth of trees below the tree line will of course increase substantially.}, }
@article {pmid12295239, year = {1999}, author = {}, title = {Malaria, in second place, sees fewer victims, but greater difficulty of control. With climate, including global warming, as complications.}, journal = {UN chronicle}, volume = {36}, number = {1}, pages = {19}, pmid = {12295239}, issn = {0251-7329}, mesh = {Biology ; *Communicable Disease Control ; *Developing Countries ; Disease ; Health ; International Agencies ; *Malaria ; Organizations ; Parasitic Diseases ; Public Health ; *Risk Factors ; United Nations ; *World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid12271143, year = {2002}, author = {Patz, JA}, title = {A human disease indicator for the effects of recent global climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {99}, number = {20}, pages = {12506-12508}, pmid = {12271143}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Databases as Topic ; Disease Outbreaks ; Environment ; Environmental Health ; Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid12233771, year = {2000}, author = {Randolph, SE and Rogers, DJ}, title = {Fragile transmission cycles of tick-borne encephalitis virus may be disrupted by predicted climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {267}, number = {1454}, pages = {1741-1744}, pmid = {12233771}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/*physiology/virology ; Encephalitis Viruses, Tick-Borne/*physiology ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/epidemiology/*transmission/virology ; Europe/epidemiology ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ixodes/*physiology/virology ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Repeated predictions that vector-borne disease prevalence will increase with global warming are usually based on univariate models. To accommodate the full range of constraints, the present-day distribution of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEv) was matched statistically to current climatic variables, to provide a multivariate description of present-day areas of disease risk. This was then applied to outputs of a general circulation model that predicts how climatic variables may change in the future, and future distributions of TBEv were predicted for them. The expected summer rise in temperature and decrease in moisture appears to drive the distribution of TBEv into higher-latitude and higher-altitude regions progressively through the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The final toe-hold in the 2080s may be confined to a small part of Scandinavia, including new foci in southern Finland. The reason for this apparent contraction of the range of TBEv is that its transmission cycles depend on a particular pattern of tick seasonal dynamics, which may be disrupted by climate change. The observed marked increase in incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in most parts of Europe since 1993 may be due to non-biological causes, such as political and sociological changes.}, }
@article {pmid12228724, year = {2002}, author = {Rodo, X and Pascual, M and Fuchs, G and Faruque, AS}, title = {ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {99}, number = {20}, pages = {12901-12906}, pmid = {12228724}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Cholera/*epidemiology ; *Climate ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Environment ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {We present here quantitative evidence for an increased role of interannual climate variability on the temporal dynamics of an infectious disease. The evidence is based on time-series analyses of the relationship between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera prevalence in Bangladesh (formerly Bengal) during two different time periods. A strong and consistent signature of ENSO is apparent in the last two decades (1980-2001), while it is weaker and eventually uncorrelated during the first parts of the last century (1893-1920 and 1920-1940, respectively). Concomitant with these changes, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) undergoes shifts in its frequency spectrum. These changes include an intensification of the approximately 4-yr cycle during the recent interval as a response to the well documented Pacific basin regime shift of 1976. This change in remote ENSO modulation alone can only partially serve to substantiate the differences observed in cholera. Regional or basin-wide changes possibly linked to global warming must be invoked that seem to facilitate ENSO transmission. For the recent cholera series and during specific time intervals corresponding to local maxima in ENSO, this climate phenomenon accounts for over 70% of disease variance. This strong association is discontinuous in time and can only be captured with a technique designed to isolate transient couplings.}, }
@article {pmid12228703, year = {2002}, author = {Stocker, TF}, title = {Climate change. North-south connections.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {297}, number = {5588}, pages = {1814-1815}, doi = {10.1126/science.1075870}, pmid = {12228703}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid12216389, year = {2002}, author = {Yang, Y and Wang, Z and Yasuo, S and Tang, C and Shizuo, S}, title = {[Effects of global warming on productivity and soil moisture in Taihang mountain: a transplant study].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {667-671}, pmid = {12216389}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Plant Development ; Rain ; Soil/*analysis ; Water/*analysis ; }, abstract = {By transferring natural vegetation with soil from high elevation to low elevation, a 2 degrees C warmer condition was created. In each site, 5 different precipitation treatments were applied to test if the temperature and precipitation changes under global warming will result in a lower soil moisture condition and, therefore, feedback negatively on vegetation productivity of the Taihang Mountain. Two years' field experiment suggested that, because of the low adaptability of Arundinelia hirta under a warmer condition, its productivity decreased significantly at the end of the experiment. Productivities of grass with better adaptability such as Themeda japonica and Artemisia sacrorum did not change significantly between the two sites. Tested vegetation demonstrated a significant increase in productivity under the higher precipitation condition by showing 22% increase in productivity under 20% higher precipitation treatment. Soil moisture condition under treatments with higher precipitation was generally higher than that under treatments with lower precipitation. In the warmer site, soil moisture became higher since the beginning of the second year.}, }
@article {pmid12214596, year = {2002}, author = {Minorsky, PV}, title = {Global warming-- effects on plants.}, journal = {Plant physiology}, volume = {129}, number = {4}, pages = {1421-1422}, doi = {10.1104/pp.900042}, pmid = {12214596}, issn = {0032-0889}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Plant Development ; Plants/classification/metabolism ; Reproduction ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid12202816, year = {2002}, author = {Moritz, RE and Bitz, CM and Steig, EJ}, title = {Dynamics of recent climate change in the Arctic.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {297}, number = {5586}, pages = {1497-1502}, doi = {10.1126/science.1076522}, pmid = {12202816}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; Atmosphere ; *Cold Climate ; Forecasting ; Geological Phenomena ; Geology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The pattern of recent surface warming observed in the Arctic exhibits both polar amplification and a strong relation with trends in the Arctic Oscillation mode of atmospheric circulation. Paleoclimate analyses indicate that Arctic surface temperatures were higher during the 20th century than during the preceding few centuries and that polar amplification is a common feature of the past. Paleoclimate evidence for Holocene variations in the Arctic Oscillation is mixed. Current understanding of physical mechanisms controlling atmospheric dynamics suggests that anthropogenic influences could have forced the recent trend in the Arctic Oscillation, but simulations with global climate models do not agree. In most simulations, the trend in the Arctic Oscillation is much weaker than observed. In addition, the simulated warming tends to be largest in autumn over the Arctic Ocean, whereas observed warming appears to be largest in winter and spring over the continents.}, }
@article {pmid12197965, year = {2002}, author = {Cochran, PL and Geller, AL}, title = {The melting ice cellar: what native traditional knowledge is teaching us about global warming and environmental change.}, journal = {American journal of public health}, volume = {92}, number = {9}, pages = {1404-1409}, doi = {10.2105/ajph.92.9.1404}, pmid = {12197965}, issn = {0090-0036}, mesh = {Alaska ; Arctic Regions ; Attitude to Health/*ethnology ; *Culture ; Databases as Topic ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Pollutants ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice ; Humans ; *Inuit ; }, abstract = {Environmental problems have often been observed by Alaska Native communities decades before they have been confirmed by scientific research.}, }
@article {pmid12195268, year = {2002}, author = {Mayers, I}, title = {Climate change, Kyoto and the Canadian Thoracic Society.}, journal = {Canadian respiratory journal}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {231-234}, doi = {10.1155/2002/578529}, pmid = {12195268}, issn = {1198-2241}, mesh = {Canada ; Decision Making, Organizational ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Pulmonary Medicine ; *Societies, Medical ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid12193760, year = {2002}, author = {Vogel, G}, title = {Central Europe floods. Labs spared as climate change gets top billing.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {297}, number = {5585}, pages = {1256}, doi = {10.1126/science.297.5585.1256}, pmid = {12193760}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid12169009, year = {2002}, author = {Werritty, A}, title = {Living with uncertainty: climate change, river flows and water resource management in Scotland.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {294}, number = {1-3}, pages = {29-40}, doi = {10.1016/s0048-9697(02)00050-5}, pmid = {12169009}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environment ; Forecasting ; *Models, Theoretical ; Rain ; Scotland ; Water Movements ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The recent increased variability of Scotland's hydroclimate poses major problems for water resource managers charged with making informed investment decisions given the likely impact of future climate change. Two strategies are developed in this paper to assist managers faced with this environmental uncertainty. The first involves trend analysis of precipitation and runoff since the 1960s and 1970s viewed against longer-term variability reported from instrumental records. The second strategy is based upon current climate change scenarios coupled with GCMs, and downscaling of precipitation and temperature to provide inputs to rainfall-runoff models. The long-term records of precipitation (back to the 1860s) and runoff (back to the 1930s) reveal the late 1980s and early 1990s as the wettest period on record for the west but not for the east. Over the period 1961-1996 the precipitation gradient has intensified across Scotland: wetter west; relatively dry east. Changes in runoff over the period 1970-1996 are also reported with increases in annual flows at 33 out of 38 stations (significantly at 12 stations) and decreases in low flows at 21 out of 38 stations (significantly at one station). The bulk of these flow increases occurred in the south and west especially in the autumn and spring. In terms of high flows over the period 1970-1996, four out of 44 stations reported a change in magnitude and 15 reported an increase in the frequency of POT events. In terms of future climate change, Hulme and Jenkins (1998) predict annual precipitation increases of 6-16% (Scotland) and 6-14% (Scottish Borders) from the 2020s to the 2080s based on the Hadley Centre model (HadCM2) medium-high scenario. Seasonal changes are concentrated in the autumn (SON) and winter (DJF) with increases as high as 24 and 29% for the autumn by the 2080s. (Arnell NW, et al. Institute of Hydrology Report No. 107, Wallingford, 1996), using an earlier transient Hadley experiment (IS92a), predict a 5-15% increase in annual runoff across Scotland by the 2050s, locally rising to 25%. Simulation flow duration curves for the 2050s generate Q95 values up by 5% or less (Rivers Don, Almond and Nith) and Q5 up by 10-24% (Rivers Don, Almond, Nith and Lyne Water). In terms of water resource planning, these predicted changes should be regarded as first order approximations, as they take no account of natural climatic variability, and could generate different absolute values if other scenarios were used. The predictions are, however, broadly consistent with trends in precipitation and runoff for Scotland since the 1970s. Major issues of concern to water resource managers are identified and commented upon in the light of these predictions.}, }
@article {pmid12161617, year = {2002}, author = {Tickell, C}, title = {Communicating climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {297}, number = {5582}, pages = {737}, doi = {10.1126/science.297.5582.737}, pmid = {12161617}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Air Pollution/economics/prevention &amp; control ; Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Ecosystem ; Europe ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Industry/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence ; International Cooperation ; Japan ; Public Policy ; *Public Relations ; South Africa ; United States ; Vehicle Emissions/prevention &amp; control ; }, }
@article {pmid12134766, year = {2002}, author = {Fryer, F}, title = {Climate change--myth or meltdown?.}, journal = {The journal of the Royal Society for the Promotion of Health}, volume = {122}, number = {2}, pages = {134}, doi = {10.1177/146642400212200236}, pmid = {12134766}, issn = {1466-4240}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Arctic Regions ; *Data Interpretation, Statistical ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice ; }, }
@article {pmid12094088, year = {2002}, author = {Epstein, PR}, title = {Climate change and infectious disease: stormy weather ahead?.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {373-375}, doi = {10.1097/00001648-200207000-00001}, pmid = {12094088}, issn = {1044-3983}, mesh = {Alphavirus Infections/*epidemiology ; Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Ross River virus ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid12086798, year = {2002}, author = {Stott, P}, title = {Climate change: the new bioterrorism.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {359}, number = {9323}, pages = {2119}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(02)08931-6}, pmid = {12086798}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Bioterrorism ; *Climate ; Humans ; *Publication Bias ; }, }
@article {pmid12077384, year = {2002}, author = {Webster, P}, title = {Climate change. Russia can save Kyoto, if it can do the math.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {296}, number = {5576}, pages = {2129-2130}, doi = {10.1126/science.296.5576.2129}, pmid = {12077384}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Air Pollutants ; *Carbon ; *Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Industry ; *International Cooperation ; Russia ; *Trees ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid12075371, year = {2002}, author = {Crabb, C}, title = {Blaming malaria rise on climate change is simplistic.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {80}, number = {4}, pages = {334-335}, pmid = {12075371}, issn = {0042-9686}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; Causality ; *Climate ; Humans ; Malaria, Falciparum/*epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid12071977, year = {2002}, author = {Rosenberg, E and Ben-Haim, Y}, title = {Microbial diseases of corals and global warming.}, journal = {Environmental microbiology}, volume = {4}, number = {6}, pages = {318-326}, doi = {10.1046/j.1462-2920.2002.00302.x}, pmid = {12071977}, issn = {1462-2912}, mesh = {Animals ; *Bacteria ; Bacterial Physiological Phenomena ; Cnidaria/cytology/*microbiology/physiology ; *Fungi ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Seawater ; Symbiosis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Coral bleaching and other diseases of corals have increased dramatically during the last few decades. As outbreaks of these diseases are highly correlated with increased sea-water temperature, one of the consequences of global warming will probably be mass destruction of coral reefs. The causative agent(s) of a few of these diseases have been reported: bleaching of Oculina patagonica by Vibrio shiloi; black band disease by a microbial consortium; sea-fan disease (aspergillosis) by Aspergillus sydowii; and coral white plague possibly by Sphingomonas sp. In addition, we have recently discovered that Vibrio coralyticus is the aetiological agent for bleaching the coral Pocillopora damicornis in the Red Sea. In the case of coral bleaching by V. shiloi, the major effect of increasing temperature is the expression of virulence genes by the pathogen. At high summer sea-water temperatures, V. shiloi produces an adhesin that allows it to adhere to a beta-galactoside-containing receptor in the coral mucus, penetrate into the coral epidermis, multiply intracellularly, differentiate into a viable-but-not-culturable (VBNC) state and produce toxins that inhibit photosynthesis and lyse the symbiotic zooxanthellae. In black band disease, sulphide is produced at the coral-microbial biofilm interface, which is probably responsible for tissue death. Reports of newly emerging coral diseases and the lack of epidemiological and biochemical information on the known diseases indicate that this will become a fertile area of research in the interface between microbial ecology and infectious disease.}, }
@article {pmid12065820, year = {2002}, author = {O'Neill, BC and Oppenheimer, M}, title = {Climate change. Dangerous climate impacts and the Kyoto Protocol.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {296}, number = {5575}, pages = {1971-1972}, doi = {10.1126/science.1071238}, pmid = {12065820}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; *Cnidaria ; Developed Countries ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice ; *International Cooperation ; Oceans and Seas ; Policy Making ; Probability ; Time Factors ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid12061959, year = {2002}, author = {Schiegg, K and Pasinelli, G and Walters, JR and Daniels, SJ}, title = {Inbreeding and experience affect response to climate change by endangered woodpeckers.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {269}, number = {1496}, pages = {1153-1159}, pmid = {12061959}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/genetics/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; *Inbreeding ; Male ; Oviposition/physiology ; Phenotype ; Reproduction/*physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {In recent decades, female red-cockaded woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) have laid eggs increasingly earlier in response to a changing climate, as has been observed in several other bird species breeding at north temperate latitudes. Within each year, females that lay earlier are more productive than females that lay later. However, inexperienced females, experienced females who change mates and inbred birds have not adjusted to the changing climate by laying earlier, and have suffered reproductive costs as a result. Failure to respond to global climate change may be a further example of the reduced ability of inbred animals to respond to environmental challenges.}, }
@article {pmid12052933, year = {2002}, author = {Lovett, RA}, title = {Global warming. Rain might be leading carbon sink factor.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {296}, number = {5574}, pages = {1787}, doi = {10.1126/science.296.5574.1787}, pmid = {12052933}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; *Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Computer Simulation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Photosynthesis ; *Plant Development ; Plants/metabolism ; *Rain ; Temperature ; Trees/growth &amp; development/metabolism ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid12048249, year = {2002}, author = {Keeling, RF and Garcia, HE}, title = {The change in oceanic O(2) inventory associated with recent global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {99}, number = {12}, pages = {7848-7853}, pmid = {12048249}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Oxygen/*analysis ; Seawater/*analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Oceans general circulation models predict that global warming may cause a decrease in the oceanic O(2) inventory and an associated O(2) outgassing. An independent argument is presented here in support of this prediction based on observational evidence of the ocean's biogeochemical response to natural warming. On time scales from seasonal to centennial, natural O(2) flux/heat flux ratios are shown to occur in a range of 2 to 10 nmol of O(2) per joule of warming, with larger ratios typically occurring at higher latitudes and over longer time scales. The ratios are several times larger than would be expected solely from the effect of heating on the O(2) solubility, indicating that most of the O(2) exchange is biologically mediated through links between heating and stratification. The change in oceanic O(2) inventory through the 1990s is estimated to be 0.3 +/- 0.4 x 10(14) mol of O(2) per year based on scaling the observed anomalous long-term ocean warming by natural O(2) flux/heating ratios and allowing for uncertainty due to decadal variability. Implications are discussed for carbon budgets based on observed changes in atmospheric O(2)/N(2) ratio and based on observed changes in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon.}, }
@article {pmid12040166, year = {2002}, author = {Elderfield, H}, title = {Climate change. Carbonate mysteries.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {296}, number = {5573}, pages = {1618-1621}, doi = {10.1126/science.1072079}, pmid = {12040166}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere ; Bicarbonates/chemistry/metabolism ; Calcification, Physiologic ; *Calcium Carbonate/chemistry/metabolism ; *Carbon Dioxide/chemistry/metabolism ; *Carbonates/chemistry/metabolism ; Chemical Precipitation ; Climate ; Ecosystem ; Geologic Sediments ; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration ; Oceans and Seas ; Plankton/*physiology ; *Seawater/chemistry ; Solubility ; Time ; }, }
@article {pmid12025334, year = {2000}, author = {Lemonick, MD}, title = {How to prevent a meltdown. Answers to global warming are in the wind.}, journal = {Time}, volume = {155}, number = {17}, pages = {60-63}, pmid = {12025334}, issn = {0040-781X}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; Automobiles ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid12020369, year = {2002}, author = {Kamata, N and Kamata, N and Esaki, K and Kato, K and Igeta, Y and Wada, K}, title = {Potential impact of global warming on deciduous oak dieback caused by ambrosia fungus Raffaelea sp. carried by ambrosia beetle Platypus quercivorus (Coleoptera: Platypodidae) in Japan.}, journal = {Bulletin of entomological research}, volume = {92}, number = {2}, pages = {119-126}, doi = {10.1079/BER2002158}, pmid = {12020369}, issn = {0007-4853}, mesh = {Animals ; Ascomycota/*physiology ; Coleoptera/*microbiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Japan ; Plant Diseases/*microbiology ; Quercus/growth &amp; development/*microbiology ; }, abstract = {Deciduous oak dieback in Japan has been known since the 1930s, but in the last ten years epidemics have intensified and spread to the island's western coastal areas. The symbiotic ambrosia fungus Raffaelea sp. is the causal agent of oak dieback, and is vectored by Platypus quercivorus (Murayama). This is the first example of an ambrosia beetle fungus that kills vigorous trees. Mortality of Quercus crispula was approximately 40% but much lower for associated species of Fagaceae, even though each species had a similar number of beetle attacks. It is likely that other oaks resistant to the fungus evolved under a stable relationship between the tree, fungus and beetle during a long evolutionary process. Quercus crispula was probably not part of this coevolution. This hypothesis was supported by the fact that P. quercivorus showed the least preference for Q. crispula yet exhibited highest reproductive success in this species. Therefore, P. quercivorus could spread more rapidly in stands with a high composition of Q. crispula. The present oak dieback epidemic in Japan probably resulted from the warmer climate that occurred from the late 1980s which made possible the fateful encounter of P. quercivorus with Q. cripsula by allowing the beetle to extend its distribution to more northerly latitudes and higher altitudes. Future global warming will possibly accelerate the overlapping of the distributions of P. quercivorus and Q. crispula with the result that oak dieback in Q. crispula will become more prevalent in Japan.}, }
@article {pmid12008300, year = {2002}, author = {Varotsos, C}, title = {Climate change problems and carbon dioxide emissions: expecting 'Rio + 10'. Global Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg (26th August-6th September 2002).}, journal = {Environmental science and pollution research international}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {97-98}, pmid = {12008300}, issn = {0944-1344}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Congresses as Topic ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid11988571, year = {2002}, author = {Thompson, DW and Solomon, S}, title = {Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {296}, number = {5569}, pages = {895-899}, doi = {10.1126/science.1069270}, pmid = {11988571}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Climate variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) is dominated by the SH annular mode, a large-scale pattern of variability characterized by fluctuations in the strength of the circumpolar vortex. We present evidence that recent trends in the SH tropospheric circulation can be interpreted as a bias toward the high-index polarity of this pattern, with stronger westerly flow encircling the polar cap. It is argued that the largest and most significant tropospheric trends can be traced to recent trends in the lower stratospheric polar vortex, which are due largely to photochemical ozone losses. During the summer-fall season, the trend toward stronger circumpolar flow has contributed substantially to the observed warming over the Antarctic Peninsula and Patagonia and to the cooling over eastern Antarctica and the Antarctic plateau.}, }
@article {pmid11988545, year = {2002}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. A single climate mover for Antarctica.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {296}, number = {5569}, pages = {825-826}, doi = {10.1126/science.296.5569.825}, pmid = {11988545}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid11980535, year = {2002}, author = {Burns, WC}, title = {MSJAMA: Climate change and human health: the critical policy agenda.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {287}, number = {17}, pages = {2287}, pmid = {11980535}, issn = {0098-7484}, mesh = {*Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Policy Making ; Public Health ; *United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid11980534, year = {2002}, author = {Liang, SY and Linthicum, KJ and Gaydos, JC}, title = {MSJAMA: Climate change and the monitoring of vector-borne disease.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {287}, number = {17}, pages = {2286}, pmid = {11980534}, issn = {0098-7484}, mesh = {Animals ; Disease Reservoirs ; *Disease Vectors ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid11980533, year = {2002}, author = {Bransford, KJ and Lai, JA}, title = {MSJAMA: Global climate change and air pollution: common origins with common solutions.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {287}, number = {17}, pages = {2285}, pmid = {11980533}, issn = {0098-7484}, mesh = {*Air Pollution ; *Energy-Generating Resources ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid11980532, year = {2002}, author = {Patz, JA and Khaliq, M}, title = {MSJAMA: Global climate change and health: challenges for future practitioners.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {287}, number = {17}, pages = {2283-2284}, pmid = {11980532}, issn = {0098-7484}, mesh = {Communicable Diseases ; Disasters ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Morbidity/trends ; Mortality/trends ; *Public Health ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid11980531, year = {2002}, author = {Staropoli, JF}, title = {MSJAMA: The public health implications of global warming.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {287}, number = {17}, pages = {2282}, pmid = {11980531}, issn = {0098-7484}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid11976412, year = {2002}, author = {Lawler, A}, title = {Climate change. Pachauri defeats Watson in new chapter for global panel.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {296}, number = {5568}, pages = {632}, doi = {10.1126/science.296.5568.632a}, pmid = {11976412}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid11972020, year = {2002}, author = {McLaughlin, JF and Hellmann, JJ and Boggs, CL and Ehrlich, PR}, title = {Climate change hastens population extinctions.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {99}, number = {9}, pages = {6070-6074}, pmid = {11972020}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Extinction, Psychological ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter the distribution and abundance of many species. Predictions of climate-induced population extinctions are supported by geographic range shifts that correspond to climatic warming, but few extinctions have been linked mechanistically to climate change. Here we show that extinctions of two populations of a checkerspot butterfly were hastened by increasing variability in precipitation, a phenomenon predicted by global climate models. We model checkerspot populations to show that changes in precipitation amplified population fluctuations, leading to rapid extinctions. As populations of checkerspots and other species become further isolated by habitat loss, climate change is likely to cause more extinctions, threatening both species diversity and critical ecosystem services.}, }
@article {pmid11961550, year = {2002}, author = {Knutti, R and Stocker, TF and Joos, F and Plattner, GK}, title = {Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {416}, number = {6882}, pages = {719-723}, doi = {10.1038/416719a}, pmid = {11961550}, issn = {0028-0836}, abstract = {The assessment of uncertainties in global warming projections is often based on expert judgement, because a number of key variables in climate change are poorly quantified. In particular, the sensitivity of climate to changing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the radiative forcing effects by aerosols are not well constrained, leading to large uncertainties in global warming simulations. Here we present a Monte Carlo approach to produce probabilistic climate projections, using a climate model of reduced complexity. The uncertainties in the input parameters and in the model itself are taken into account, and past observations of oceanic and atmospheric warming are used to constrain the range of realistic model responses. We obtain a probability density function for the present-day total radiative forcing, giving 1.4 to 2.4 W m-2 for the 5-95 per cent confidence range, narrowing the global-mean indirect aerosol effect to the range of 0 to -1.2 W m-2. Ensemble simulations for two illustrative emission scenarios suggest a 40 per cent probability that global-mean surface temperature increase will exceed the range predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but only a 5 per cent probability that warming will fall below that range.}, }
@article {pmid11961537, year = {2002}, author = {Zwiers, FW}, title = {Climate change: the 20-year forecast.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {416}, number = {6882}, pages = {690-691}, doi = {10.1038/416690a}, pmid = {11961537}, issn = {0028-0836}, }
@article {pmid11951005, year = {2002}, author = {Lawler, A}, title = {Climate change. White House shakes up U.S. program.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {296}, number = {5566}, pages = {232}, doi = {10.1126/science.296.5566.232b}, pmid = {11951005}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid11951004, year = {2002}, author = {Lawler, A}, title = {Climate change. Battle over IPCC chair renews debate on U.S. climate policy.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {296}, number = {5566}, pages = {232-233}, doi = {10.1126/science.296.5566.232a}, pmid = {11951004}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid11948349, year = {2002}, author = {Peterson, AT and Ortega-Huerta, MA and Bartley, J and Sánchez-Cordero, V and Soberón, J and Buddemeier, RH and Stockwell, DR}, title = {Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {416}, number = {6881}, pages = {626-629}, doi = {10.1038/416626a}, pmid = {11948349}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Algorithms ; Animals ; Birds/*physiology ; Butterflies/*physiology ; *Climate ; Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Mammals/*physiology ; Mexico ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Species Specificity ; }, abstract = {Global climates are changing rapidly, with unexpected consequences. Because elements of biodiversity respond intimately to climate as an important driving force of distributional limitation, distributional shifts and biodiversity losses are expected. Nevertheless, in spite of modelling efforts focused on single species or entire ecosystems, a few preliminary surveys of fauna-wide effects, and evidence of climate change-mediated shifts in several species, the likely effects of climate change on species' distributions remain little known, and fauna-wide or community-level effects are almost completely unexplored. Here, using a genetic algorithm and museum specimen occurrence data, we develop ecological niche models for 1,870 species occurring in Mexico and project them onto two climate surfaces modelled for 2055. Although extinctions and drastic range reductions are predicted to be relatively few, species turnover in some local communities is predicted to be high (>40% of species), suggesting that severe ecological perturbations may result.}, }
@article {pmid11928354, year = {2002}, author = {Skeer, J}, title = {Links between Cairo and Kyoto: addressing global warming through voluntary family planning.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {28-29}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-31.1.28}, pmid = {11928354}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {Birth Rate ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; *Developing Countries ; Environment ; *Family Planning Services/economics ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; Male ; *Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {Over the past three decades, with a combination of new technology, rising female literacy rates, and strengthened family planning programs, the world has seen dramatic increases in the use of contraception, with corresponding declines in fertility and population growth rates. At the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo in 1994, parties pledged a tripling of funding for reproductive health programs in developing countries. Many demographers believe that making such programs more widely available to women would extend the decline in birth rates and shift the world towards the low scenario of United Nations population projections over the next century and a half. By examining the costs and impacts of such programs, in view of the links between population and carbon emissions, this paper shows that extension of voluntary family planning could make a large and cost-effective contribution to the greenhouse gas limitation goals of the Kyoto Protocol that was negotiated in 1997.}, }
@article {pmid11926617, year = {2002}, author = {Weber, RW}, title = {Mother Nature strikes back: global warming, homeostasis, and implications for allergy.}, journal = {Annals of allergy, asthma &amp; immunology : official publication of the American College of Allergy, Asthma, &amp; Immunology}, volume = {88}, number = {3}, pages = {251-252}, doi = {10.1016/S1081-1206(10)62004-2}, pmid = {11926617}, issn = {1081-1206}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide/*pharmacology ; Climate ; Homeostasis ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/*etiology ; Pollen/*immunology/physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid11919621, year = {2002}, author = {Walther, GR and Post, E and Convey, P and Menzel, A and Parmesan, C and Beebee, TJ and Fromentin, JM and Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Bairlein, F}, title = {Ecological responses to recent climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {416}, number = {6879}, pages = {389-395}, doi = {10.1038/416389a}, pmid = {11919621}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Ecology ; Environment ; Humans ; Plants ; }, abstract = {There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.}, }
@article {pmid11878639, year = {2002}, author = {Suffling, R and Scott, D}, title = {Assessment of climate change effects on Canada's National Park system.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {74}, number = {2}, pages = {117-139}, pmid = {11878639}, issn = {0167-6369}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; Canada ; Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; Fishes ; *Food Chain ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Soil ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated for Canada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonal temperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050 and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems and people. Important, widespread changes relate to marine and freshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern and upward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combined East coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosion and deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic uplift negates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individual parks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migrate lakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroy the fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. For example: we could not form conclusions about glacial mass balance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for the East Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty.}, }
@article {pmid11875773, year = {2002}, author = {Charron, D}, title = {Report on the 1st annual National Science and Policy Research Consensus Conference on Health and Climate Change--Ottawa, 13 to 15 March, 2001, and implications for infectious diseases.}, journal = {Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada}, volume = {28}, number = {4}, pages = {29-36}, pmid = {11875773}, issn = {1188-4169}, mesh = {Canada ; *Climate ; Communicable Disease Control ; Environmental Health ; Humans ; *Public Health ; *Research ; }, }
@article {pmid11859368, year = {2002}, author = {Hay, SI and Cox, J and Rogers, DJ and Randolph, SE and Stern, DI and Shanks, GD and Myers, MF and Snow, RW}, title = {Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {415}, number = {6874}, pages = {905-909}, pmid = {11859368}, issn = {0028-0836}, support = {//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 056642//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 079080//Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Africa, Eastern/epidemiology ; Animals ; *Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Malaria, Falciparum/*epidemiology/transmission ; Plasmodium falciparum ; }, abstract = {The public health and economic consequences of Plasmodium falciparum malaria are once again regarded as priorities for global development. There has been much speculation on whether anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating the malaria problem, especially in areas of high altitude where P. falciparum transmission is limited by low temperature. The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that there is likely to be a net extension in the distribution of malaria and an increase in incidence within this range. We investigated long-term meteorological trends in four high-altitude sites in East Africa, where increases in malaria have been reported in the past two decades. Here we show that temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure and the number of months suitable for P. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resurgence. A high degree of temporal and spatial variation in the climate of East Africa suggests further that claimed associations between local malaria resurgences and regional changes in climate are overly simplistic.}, }
@article {pmid11859359, year = {2002}, author = {Clark, PU and Pisias, NG and Stocker, TF and Weaver, AJ}, title = {The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {415}, number = {6874}, pages = {863-869}, doi = {10.1038/415863a}, pmid = {11859359}, issn = {0028-0836}, abstract = {The possibility of a reduced Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations has been demonstrated in a number of simulations with general circulation models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. But it remains difficult to assess the likelihood of future changes in the thermohaline circulation, mainly owing to poorly constrained model parameterizations and uncertainties in the response of the climate system to greenhouse warming. Analyses of past abrupt climate changes help to solve these problems. Data and models both suggest that abrupt climate change during the last glaciation originated through changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to small changes in the hydrological cycle. Atmospheric and oceanic responses to these changes were then transmitted globally through a number of feedbacks. The palaeoclimate data and the model results also indicate that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the mean climate state.}, }
@article {pmid11859159, year = {2002}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. More science and a carrot, not a stick.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {295}, number = {5559}, pages = {1439}, doi = {10.1126/science.295.5559.1439a}, pmid = {11859159}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid11827044, year = {2002}, author = {Ruth, M and Amato, AD and Davidsdottir, B}, title = {Carbon emissions from U.S. ethylene production under climate change policies.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {36}, number = {2}, pages = {119-124}, doi = {10.1021/es010809r}, pmid = {11827044}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Air Pollution/economics/legislation &amp; jurisprudence/prevention &amp; control ; Carbon/*analysis ; *Environment ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Ethylenes ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Industry ; *Models, Theoretical ; Taxes ; }, abstract = {This paper presents the results from a dynamic computer model of U.S. ethylene production, designed to explore implications of alternative climate change policies for the industry's energy use and carbon emissions profiles. The model applies to the aggregate ethylene industry but distinguishes its main cracker types, fuels used as feedstocks and for process energy, as well as the industry's capital vintage structure and vintage-specific efficiencies. Results indicate that policies which increase the cost of carbon of process energy-such as carbon taxes or carbon permit systems-are relatively blunt instruments for cutting carbon emissions from ethylene production. In contrast, policies directly affecting the relative efficiencies of new to old capital-such as R&amp;D stimuli or accelerated depreciation schedules-may be more effective in leveraging the industry's potential for carbon emissions reductions.}, }
@article {pmid11824688, year = {2001}, author = {Keeney, RL and McDaniels, RL}, title = {A framework to guide thinking and analysis regarding climate change policies.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {21}, number = {6}, pages = {989-1000}, doi = {10.1111/0272-4332.216168}, pmid = {11824688}, issn = {0272-4332}, abstract = {The potential impacts from climate change, and climate change policies, are massive. Careful thinking about what we want climate change policies to achieve is a crucial first step for analysts to help governments make wise policy choices to address these concerns. This article presents an adaptive framework to help guide comparative analysis of climate change policies. The framework recognizes the inability to forecast long-term impacts (due in part to path dependance) as a constraint on the use of standard policy analysis, and stresses learning over time as a fundamental concern. The framework focuses on the objectives relevant for climate change policy in North America over the near term (e.g., the next 20 years). For planning and evaluating current climate policy alternatives, a combination of fundamental objectives for the near term and proxy objectives for characterizing the state of the climate problem and the ability to address it at the end of that term is suggested. Broad uses of the framework are discussed, along with some concrete examples. The framework is intended to provide a basis for policy analysis that explicitly considers the benefits of learning over time to improve climate change policies.}, }
@article {pmid11823630, year = {2002}, author = {Hartmann, DL}, title = {Climate change. Tropical surprises.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {295}, number = {5556}, pages = {811-812}, doi = {10.1126/science.1068447}, pmid = {11823630}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid11809962, year = {2002}, author = {Quayle, WC and Peck, LS and Peat, H and Ellis-Evans, JC and Harrigan, PR}, title = {Extreme responses to climate change in Antarctic lakes.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {295}, number = {5555}, pages = {645}, doi = {10.1126/science.1064074}, pmid = {11809962}, issn = {1095-9203}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Chlorophyll/analysis ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Fresh Water ; Light ; Phytoplankton/*physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid11799228, year = {2002}, author = {Alley, RB}, title = {Climate change. On thickening ice?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {295}, number = {5554}, pages = {451-452}, doi = {10.1126/science.1068919}, pmid = {11799228}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid11789536, year = {2002}, author = {Hansen, J and Ruedy, R and Sato, M and Lo, K}, title = {Global warming continues.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {295}, number = {5553}, pages = {275}, doi = {10.1126/science.295.5553.275c}, pmid = {11789536}, issn = {1095-9203}, }
@article {pmid11778019, year = {2002}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Reducing uncertainties of global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {295}, number = {5552}, pages = {29-31}, doi = {10.1126/science.295.5552.29a}, pmid = {11778019}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11767667, year = {2000}, author = {Chen, X and Wang, F}, title = {[Simulation of potential responses of clear-cut of mixed coniferous and broadleaved Korean pine forest in Yichun to climate change by BKPF model].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {513-517}, pmid = {11767667}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {Climate ; *Computer Simulation ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Biological ; Pinus/*physiology ; }, abstract = {The potential responses of forest succession in the clear-cut site of mixed coniferous and broad-leaved Korean pine forest (MCBLKPF) in Yichun, Heilongjiang Province to global climate change and elevated CO2 after 50 years by BKPF model were simulated. The results indicated that the densities of Pinus koraiensis and hardwood species(Fraxinus mandshurica, Tilia amurensis, Juglans mandshurica and Phellodendron amurense) would increase, while the densities of Larix olgensis, Betula platyphylla and Populus davidiana would decrease after 50 years. The stand densities would be slightly lower than those at the same age under the current climate condition. The stand productivity, total aboveground biomass and leaf area index will increase by 7-28%, 15-24% and 5-8%, respectively. Climate change would be beneficial to the forest succession from the clear-cut site to MCBLKPF.}, }
@article {pmid11766586, year = {2000}, author = {Deng, H and Wu, Z and Zhou, D}, title = {[Response of broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forests in Xiaoxinganling Mt. to global climate change--a dynamic modeling].}, journal = {Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {43-46}, pmid = {11766586}, issn = {1001-9332}, mesh = {China ; *Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Biological ; Pinus/*physiology ; Trees/*physiology ; }, abstract = {In this paper, the Forest Gap Model and four General Circulation Models (GCMs) were employed to investigate the dynamic response of broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forests in Xiaoxinganling Mountains of China to global climate change. Under CO2 doubling which was simulated by the scenarios of Oregon State University and Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the biomass of broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forest increased and the current Picea-Abies-broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forest would gradually develop to Betula costata-Tilia amurensis-Ulmus laciniata-broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forest. Under the scenarios of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University and United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Pinus koraiensis and other coniferous species would be replaced by broadleaved species such as Quercus mongolica, Tilia amurensis and Ulmus laciniata, and the broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forest would change to broadleaved forest, due to the great range increasing temperature by the scenarios. The future warming rate would determine the succession of broadleaved Pinus koraiensis forest.}, }
@article {pmid11757288, year = {2001}, author = {Shen, D and Varis, O}, title = {Climate change in China.}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {30}, number = {6}, pages = {381-383}, doi = {10.1579/0044-7447-30.6.381}, pmid = {11757288}, issn = {0044-7447}, mesh = {China ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid11752558, year = {2001}, author = {McCarl, BA and Schneider, UA}, title = {Climate change. Greenhouse gas mitigation in U.S. agriculture and forestry.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {294}, number = {5551}, pages = {2481-2482}, doi = {10.1126/science.1064193}, pmid = {11752558}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {*Agriculture/economics ; Animals ; *Carbon ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Crops, Agricultural/economics ; Fertilizers ; *Forestry/economics ; Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; Soil ; Trees ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11739952, year = {2001}, author = {Shindell, DT and Schmidt, GA and Mann, ME and Rind, D and Waple, A}, title = {Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {294}, number = {5549}, pages = {2149-2152}, doi = {10.1126/science.1064363}, pmid = {11739952}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th-century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 degrees to 0.4 degrees C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation as solar irradiance decreases. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 degrees to 2 degrees C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid11729288, year = {2001}, author = {Streets, DG and Jiang, K and Hu, X and Sinton, JE and Zhang, XQ and Xu, D and Jacobson, MZ and Hansen, JE}, title = {Climate change. Recent reductions in China's greenhouse gas emissions.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {294}, number = {5548}, pages = {1835-1837}, doi = {10.1126/science.1065226}, pmid = {11729288}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Bioelectric Energy Sources/economics ; Carbon Dioxide/*metabolism ; China ; Coal/economics ; *Conservation of Energy Resources/economics ; Electricity ; *Energy-Generating Resources/economics ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane/metabolism ; Time Factors ; Wood ; }, }
@article {pmid11728533, year = {2001}, author = {}, title = {Climate change--the new bioterrorism.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {358}, number = {9294}, pages = {1657}, pmid = {11728533}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; *Bioterrorism ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid11721020, year = {2001}, author = {Huq, S}, title = {Climate change and Bangladesh.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {294}, number = {5547}, pages = {1617}, doi = {10.1126/science.294.5547.1617}, pmid = {11721020}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Bangladesh ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources/economics ; Disasters/*economics ; Energy-Generating Resources/economics/standards ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid11701912, year = {2001}, author = {Nordhaus, WD}, title = {Climate change. Global warming economics.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {294}, number = {5545}, pages = {1283-1284}, doi = {10.1126/science.1065007}, pmid = {11701912}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11701829, year = {1999}, author = {Coakley, SM and Scherm, H and Chakraborty, S}, title = {Climate change and plant disease management.}, journal = {Annual review of phytopathology}, volume = {37}, number = {}, pages = {399-426}, doi = {10.1146/annurev.phyto.37.1.399}, pmid = {11701829}, issn = {0066-4286}, abstract = {▪ Abstract Research on impacts of climate change on plant diseases has been limited, with most work concentrating on the effects of a single atmospheric constituent or meteorological variable on the host, pathogen, or the interaction of the two under controlled conditions. Results indicate that climate change could alter stages and rates of development of the pathogen, modify host resistance, and result in changes in the physiology of host-pathogen interactions. The most likely consequences are shifts in the geographical distribution of host and pathogen and altered crop losses, caused in part by changes in the efficacy of control strategies. Recent developments in experimental and modeling techniques offer considerable promise for developing an improved capability for climate change impact assessment and mitigation. Compared with major technological, environmental, and socioeconomic changes affecting agricultural production during the next century, climate change may be less important; it will, however, add another layer of complexity and uncertainty onto a system that is already exceedingly difficult to manage on a sustainable basis. Intensified research on climate change-related issues could result in improved understanding and management of plant diseases in the face of current and future climate extremes.}, }
@article {pmid11698659, year = {2001}, author = {Bradshaw, WE and Holzapfel, CM}, title = {Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {98}, number = {25}, pages = {14509-14511}, pmid = {11698659}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; Culicidae/*genetics/growth &amp; development/physiology/radiation effects ; *Greenhouse Effect ; North America ; *Photoperiod ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {To date, all altered patterns of seasonal interactions observed in insects, birds, amphibians, and plants associated with global warming during the latter half of the 20th century are explicable as variable expressions of plastic phenotypes. Over the last 30 years, the genetically controlled photoperiodic response of the pitcher-plant mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii, has shifted toward shorter, more southern daylengths as growing seasons have become longer. This shift is detectable over a time interval as short as 5 years. Faster evolutionary response has occurred in northern populations where selection is stronger and genetic variation is greater than in southern populations. W. smithii represents an example of actual genetic differentiation of a seasonality trait that is consistent with an adaptive evolutionary response to recent global warming.}, }
@article {pmid11697670, year = {2001}, author = {Xu, D and Yan, H}, title = {A study of the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Pinus koraiensis in China.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {27}, number = {2-3}, pages = {201-205}, doi = {10.1016/s0160-4120(01)00083-6}, pmid = {11697670}, issn = {0160-4120}, mesh = {China ; Environmental Monitoring ; Geography ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Theoretical ; Pinus/*physiology ; Population Dynamics ; }, abstract = {The climatic conditions and elevation of the potential distribution area of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis Sieb. et Zucc) in China were determined by an ecological information system GREEN that has been developed by [Yan H, Booth TH, Zuo H, editors. GREEN--a climatic mapping program for China and its use in forestry. In: Matching trees and sites, ACIAR Proceedings No. 63. Australia: ACIAR, 1996]. The potential distribution areas of this tree species under current and predicted climatic conditions were mapped using IDRISI GIS. Based on the averages of rainfall and temperature predicted by 5 GCMs (GISS, NCAR, OSU, UKMO and MPI, i.e., an "averaged" model) and a new model HadCM2 for 2030, predictions were made on the future distributions of Korean pine. The result shows that the southern boundary of the potential distribution area of Korean pine will have a northward shift of 0.1 degrees to 0.6 degrees in latitude, and the northern boundary will have a northward shift of 0.3 degrees to 0.5 degrees, resulting in an expansion of the potential distribution area by 3.4% according to the average of the five models. However, the distribution areas will be decreased by 12.1% and 44.9% according to the scenarios predicted by HadCM2, which assumes annual increments of CO2 concentrations of 0.5% and 1%, respectively. The authors concluded that if the thresholds were properly selected the actual distribution and potential distribution of a tree species might agree. The projected distribution under changed climatic conditions depends on the GCM scenarios applied. Different GCM scenarios may sometimes give opposite conclusions, as in the case of Korean pine projected by the "averaged" and HadCM2 models.}, }
@article {pmid11697663, year = {2001}, author = {Howden, SM and McKeon, GM and Meinke, H and Entel, M and Flood, N}, title = {Impacts of climate change and climate variability on the competitiveness of wheat and beef cattle production in Emerald, north-east Australia.}, journal = {Environment international}, volume = {27}, number = {2-3}, pages = {155-160}, doi = {10.1016/s0160-4120(01)00076-9}, pmid = {11697663}, issn = {0160-4120}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; Australia ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Cattle ; *Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; Poaceae ; *Triticum ; }, abstract = {Emerald, north-east Queensland, is at the northern margin of the wheat cropping region of Australia. The Emerald region was previously used predominantly for grazing beef cattle; however, cropping has developed in importance over the past 30 years. We use historical climate records (1890-1998) to simulate and compare wheat yields, grass production and live-weight gain (LWG) over time. The cropping expansion from the 1970s to the early 1990s has occurred in a unique period in the 108-year record with the highest average wheat yields, lowest wheat yield variability and the greatest relative productivity of wheat production against grass production. If this window of opportunity is a result of long-term climate variability, then cropping is likely to decline in the region as conditions return to those experienced earlier in the record. If this increase is related to climate change, then cropping is likely to persist in the region with productivity maintained at current levels particularly through the yield-enhancing effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, this persistence will be influenced by the frequencies of El Niño conditions that may increase with global warming. The high relative productivities experienced over the past few decades have probably biased producers' expectations, and applications for drought support need to take into account the longer-term perspective provided by this analysis. Nevertheless, the last 6 years have the lowest simulated mean LWG production on the record. The identification of poor production periods depended on the production element being addressed and the timescale involved.}, }
@article {pmid11691975, year = {2001}, author = {Scholes, RJ and Noble, IR}, title = {Climate change. Storing carbon on land.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {294}, number = {5544}, pages = {1012-1013}, doi = {10.1126/science.1065307}, pmid = {11691975}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Air Pollution ; Atmosphere ; *Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fossil Fuels ; Oceans and Seas ; Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid11679810, year = {2001}, author = {Martens, P and Huynen, M}, title = {Will global climate change reduce thermal stress in the Netherlands?.}, journal = {Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {753-754}, doi = {10.1097/00001648-200111000-00032}, pmid = {11679810}, issn = {1044-3983}, mesh = {Aged ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; Mortality/*trends ; Netherlands/epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid11679659, year = {2001}, author = {Sagarin, R and Micheli, F}, title = {Climate change in nontraditional data sets.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {294}, number = {5543}, pages = {811}, doi = {10.1126/science.1064218}, pmid = {11679659}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11679657, year = {2001}, author = {Church, JA}, title = {Climate change. How fast are sea levels rising?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {294}, number = {5543}, pages = {802-803}, doi = {10.1126/science.1065714}, pmid = {11679657}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Sea levels are rising as a result of global warming, but assessing the rate of the rise is proving difficult. In his Perspective, Church highlights the report by Cabanes et al., who have reassessed observational data and find that it is closer to model estimates than previously found. However, observational data are still limited and models disagree in their regional projections. With present data and models, regional sea-level changes cannot be predicted with confidence.}, }
@article {pmid11679644, year = {2001}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. A little sharper view of global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {294}, number = {5543}, pages = {765}, doi = {10.1126/science.294.5543.765b}, pmid = {11679644}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11590741, year = {2001}, author = {You, SC}, title = {Agricultural adaptation of climate change in China.}, journal = {Journal of environmental sciences (China)}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {192-197}, pmid = {11590741}, issn = {1001-0742}, mesh = {Agriculture/economics/*methods/statistics &amp; numerical data ; China ; *Climate ; Disasters/economics/statistics &amp; numerical data ; Fresh Water ; Oryza/economics/growth &amp; development ; Water ; Zea mays/economics/growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {This paper presents the study on agriculture adaptation to climate change by adopting the assumed land use change strategy to resist the water shortage and to build the capacity to adapt the expected climate change in the northern China. The cost-benefit analysis result shows that assumed land use change from high water consuming rice cultivation to other crops is very effective. Over 7 billions m3 of water can be saved. Potential conflicts between different social interest groups, different regions, demand and supply, and present and future interests have been analyzed for to form a policy to implement the adaptation strategy. Trade, usually taken as one of adaptation strategies, was suggested as a policy option for to support land use change, which not only meets the consumption demand, but also, in terms of resources, imports water resources.}, }
@article {pmid11588260, year = {2001}, author = {Etterson, JR and Shaw, RG}, title = {Constraint to adaptive evolution in response to global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {294}, number = {5540}, pages = {151-154}, doi = {10.1126/science.1063656}, pmid = {11588260}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Analysis of Variance ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; Disasters ; Fabaceae/genetics/growth &amp; development/*physiology ; Genetic Variation ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Likelihood Functions ; Midwestern United States ; Multivariate Analysis ; Plant Leaves/growth &amp; development ; *Plants, Medicinal ; *Selection, Genetic ; }, abstract = {We characterized the genetic architecture of three populations of a native North American prairie plant in field conditions that simulate the warmer and more arid climates predicted by global climate models. Despite genetic variance for traits under selection, among-trait genetic correlations that are antagonistic to the direction of selection limit adaptive evolution within these populations. Predicted rates of evolutionary response are much slower than the predicted rate of climate change.}, }
@article {pmid11587944, year = {2001}, author = {Hay, SI}, title = {The world of smoke, mirrors and climate change.}, journal = {Trends in parasitology}, volume = {17}, number = {10}, pages = {466}, pmid = {11587944}, issn = {1471-4922}, support = {/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; 056642/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom ; }, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/*epidemiology ; Incidence ; Ixodes/*growth &amp; development/parasitology ; Sweden/epidemiology ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid11574887, year = {2001}, author = {Thompson, PM and Ollason, JC}, title = {Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {413}, number = {6854}, pages = {417-420}, doi = {10.1038/35096558}, pmid = {11574887}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Birds/*physiology ; Breeding ; *Climate ; Female ; Male ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction ; }, abstract = {Environmental variation reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation affects breeding and survival in terrestrial vertebrates, and climate change is predicted to have an impact on population dynamics by influencing food quality or availability. The North Atlantic Oscillation also affects the abundance of marine fish and zooplankton, but it is unclear whether this filters up trophic levels to long-lived marine top predators. Here we show by analysis of data from a 50-year study of the fulmar that two different indices of ocean climate variation may have lagged effects on population dynamics in this procellariiform seabird. Annual variability in breeding performance is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas cohort differences in recruitment are related to temperature changes in the summer growing season in the year of birth. Because fulmars exhibit delayed reproduction, there is a 5-year lag in the population's response to these effects of environmental change. These data show how interactions between different climatic factors result in complex dynamics, and that the effects of climate change may take many years to become apparent in long-lived marine top predators.}, }
@article {pmid11565002, year = {2001}, author = {Barrie Pittock, A and Jones, RN and Mitchell, CD}, title = {Probabilities will help us plan for climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {413}, number = {6853}, pages = {249}, doi = {10.1038/35095194}, pmid = {11565002}, issn = {0028-0836}, }
@article {pmid11559583, year = {2001}, author = {Brower, V}, title = {Vector-borne diseases and global warming: are both on an upward swing? Scientists are still debating whether global warming will lead to a further spread of mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit.}, journal = {EMBO reports}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {755-757}, doi = {10.1093/embo-reports/kve193}, pmid = {11559583}, issn = {1469-221X}, mesh = {Animals ; Culicidae/*pathogenicity ; Dengue/transmission ; *Genetic Vectors ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Malaria/transmission ; }, }
@article {pmid11546858, year = {2001}, author = {Vaughan, DG and Marshall, GJ and Connolley, WM and King, JC and Mulvaney, R}, title = {Climate change. Devil in the detail.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {293}, number = {5536}, pages = {1777-1779}, doi = {10.1126/science.1065116}, pmid = {11546858}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid11544852, year = {2001}, author = {}, title = {Microbial activity a component in climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health}, volume = {64}, number = {2}, pages = {47}, pmid = {11544852}, issn = {0022-0892}, mesh = {Biomass ; Carbon Dioxide ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Policy Making ; Public Policy ; *Soil Microbiology ; *Water Microbiology ; }, }
@article {pmid11544851, year = {2001}, author = {}, title = {Climate scientists advise White House on global warming.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health}, volume = {64}, number = {2}, pages = {46-47}, pmid = {11544851}, issn = {0022-0892}, mesh = {Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Environmental Health ; *Expert Testimony ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Policy Making ; Public Health ; *Public Policy ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11544845, year = {2001}, author = {Radtke, T and Gist, GL and Wittkopf, TE}, title = {National Environmental Health Association position on global climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental health}, volume = {64}, number = {2}, pages = {30-32}, pmid = {11544845}, issn = {0022-0892}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Organizational Policy ; Policy Making ; Public Health ; Public Policy ; Societies, Scientific ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11533488, year = {2001}, author = {Huang, Y and Street-Perrott, FA and Metcalfe, SE and Brenner, M and Moreland, M and Freeman, KH}, title = {Climate change as the dominant control on glacial-interglacial variations in C3 and C4 plant abundance.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {293}, number = {5535}, pages = {1647-1651}, doi = {10.1126/science.1060143}, pmid = {11533488}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Alkanes/analysis ; Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide ; Carbon Isotopes/analysis ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Fossils ; Fresh Water ; Geologic Sediments/*chemistry ; Guatemala ; Mexico ; Photosynthesis ; *Plant Development ; Plant Leaves/chemistry ; Plants/metabolism ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development/metabolism ; Pollen ; Rain ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Trees/growth &amp; development ; Weather ; }, abstract = {Although C4 plant expansions have been recognized in the late Miocene, identification of the underlying causes is complicated by the uncertainties associated with estimates of ancient precipitation, temperature, and partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (PCO2). Here we report the carbon isotopic compositions of leaf wax n-alkanes in lake sediment cores from two sites in Mesoamerica that have experienced contrasting moisture variations since the last glacial maximum. Opposite isotopic trends obtained from these two sites indicate that regional climate exerts a strong control on the relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants and that in the absence of favorable moisture and temperature conditions, low PCO2 alone is insufficient to drive an expansion of C4 plants.}, }
@article {pmid11526068, year = {2001}, author = {Wares, JP}, title = {Biogeography of Asterias: North Atlantic climate change and speciation.}, journal = {The Biological bulletin}, volume = {201}, number = {1}, pages = {95-103}, doi = {10.2307/1543530}, pmid = {11526068}, issn = {0006-3185}, mesh = {Animals ; Atlantic Ocean ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; Echinodermata/*classification/genetics/growth &amp; development ; *Geography ; Phylogeny ; Water Movements ; }, abstract = {Fossil evidence suggests that the seastar genus Asterias arrived in the North Atlantic during the trans-Arctic interchange around 3.5 Ma. Previous genetic and morphological studies of the two species found in the Atlantic today suggested two possible scenarios for the speciation of A. rubens and A. forbesi. Through phylogenetic and population genetic analysis of data from a portion of the cytochrome oxidase I mitochondrial gene and a fragment of the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer region, I show that the formation of the Labrador Current 3.0 Ma was probably responsible for the initial vicariance of North Atlantic Asterias populations. Subsequent adaptive evolution in A. forbesi was then possible in isolation from the European species A. rubens. The contact zone between these two species formed recently, possibly due to a Holocene founding event of A. rubens in New England and the Canadian Maritimes.}, }
@article {pmid11521669, year = {2001}, author = {Edwards, P and , }, title = {Climate change, air pollution and your health.}, journal = {Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique}, volume = {92}, number = {3}, pages = {suppl 1-24 following 200}, pmid = {11521669}, issn = {0008-4263}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*adverse effects ; Canada ; Community Health Planning ; Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Personnel ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Transportation ; }, }
@article {pmid11516383, year = {2001}, author = {Kovats, RS and Campbell-Lendrum, DH and McMichael, AJ and Woodward, A and Cox, JS}, title = {Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?.}, journal = {Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences}, volume = {356}, number = {1411}, pages = {1057-1068}, doi = {10.1098/rstb2001.0894}, pmid = {11516383}, issn = {0962-8436}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Disease Vectors ; Ecology ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/epidemiology ; Humans ; Infections/*transmission ; Malaria/epidemiology ; Sweden/epidemiology ; Ticks ; }, abstract = {The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Shifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well established that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temporal distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality (intra-annual variability), and in the incidence rate (with or without changes in geographical or seasonal patterns). The detection and then attribution of such changes to climate change is an emerging task for scientists. We discuss the evidence required to attribute changes in disease and vectors to the early effects of anthropogenic climate change. The literature to date indicates that there is a lack of strong evidence of the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, tick-borne diseases). New approaches to monitoring, such as frequent and long-term sampling along transects to monitor the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of specific vector species, are necessary in order to provide convincing direct evidence of climate change effects. There is a need to reassess the appropriate levels of evidence, including dealing with the uncertainties attached to detecting the health impacts of global change.}, }
@article {pmid11516015, year = {2001}, author = {Oh, SN and Youn, YH and Park, KJ and Min, HK and Schnell, RC}, title = {Surface measurements of global warming causing atmospheric constituents in Korea.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {70}, number = {1-2}, pages = {21-34}, pmid = {11516015}, issn = {0167-6369}, mesh = {Aerosols ; Air Pollutants/*analysis ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; Databases, Factual ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Industry ; Korea ; Particle Size ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The expansion of the industrial economy and the increase of population in Northeast Asian countries have caused much interest in climate monitoring related to global warming. However, new techniques and better platforms for the measurement of global warming and regional databases are still old-fashioned and are not being developed sufficiently. With respect to this agenda, since 1993, at the request of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), to monitor functions of global warming, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has set up a Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Station on the western coast of Korea (Anmyun-do) and has been actively monitoring global warming over Northeast Asia. In addition, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has been measured for a similar KMA global warming program at Kosan, Cheju Island since 1990. Aerosol and radiation have also been measured at both sites as well as in Seoul. The observations have been analyzed using diagnostics of climate change in Northeast Asia and also have been internationally compared. Results indicate that greenhouse gases are in good statistic agreement with the NOAA/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) long-term trends of monthly mean concentrations and seasonal cycles. Atmospheric particulate matter has also been analyzed for particular Asian types in terms of optical depth, number concentration and size distribution.}, }
@article {pmid11511578, year = {2001}, author = {McMichael, AJ}, title = {Climate change and health: information to counter the White House Effect.}, journal = {International journal of epidemiology}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {655-657}, doi = {10.1093/ije/30.4.655}, pmid = {11511578}, issn = {0300-5771}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/*adverse effects ; Animals ; Carbon Dioxide/adverse effects ; *Climate ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Politics ; *Public Health ; Public Policy ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11509711, year = {2001}, author = {Cifuentes, L and Borja-Aburto, VH and Gouveia, N and Thurston, G and Davis, DL}, title = {Climate change. Hidden health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {293}, number = {5533}, pages = {1257-1259}, doi = {10.1126/science.1063357}, pmid = {11509711}, issn = {0036-8075}, support = {ES00260/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Air Pollution/adverse effects/prevention &amp; control ; Brazil ; Chile ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Forecasting ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; Humans ; Mexico ; Mortality ; New York City ; Ozone/adverse effects ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid11506021, year = {2001}, author = {Penner, JE and Hegg, D and Leaitch, R}, title = {Unraveling the role of aerosols in climate change.}, journal = {Environmental science &amp; technology}, volume = {35}, number = {15}, pages = {332A-340A}, doi = {10.1021/es0124414}, pmid = {11506021}, issn = {0013-936X}, mesh = {Aerosols/*adverse effects ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Models, Theoretical ; }, }
@article {pmid11494348, year = {2001}, author = {Yoganathan, D and Rom, WN}, title = {Medical aspects of global warming.}, journal = {American journal of industrial medicine}, volume = {40}, number = {2}, pages = {199-210}, doi = {10.1002/ajim.1088}, pmid = {11494348}, issn = {0271-3586}, support = {M01 00096//PHS HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Health/*trends ; *Public Policy ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Global warming is caused by increased carbon dioxide (CO2)resulting in a greenhouse effect with enhanced warming of the earth. Measurements of CO2 show a steady increase over the past 30 years caused by the burning of fossil fuels and from the loss of natural CO2 sinks. A 100-year increase in global temperature by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees C is reflected in atmospheric warming, glacier shrinkage, and rising sea levels.<br><br>OBJECTIVES: Planetary ecosystem dynamics are being altered, challenging public health. It is predicted that morbidity and mortality will increase as a result of heat stress, as seen in recent heat waves in the U.S. Weather disaster effects will increase in number and magnitude, and both noninfectious and infectious diseases may flourish. A significant challenge will be the changes in life cycles of microbial species due to the warmer environs. Specific increases in incidence have been noted for vector-borne diseases, in addition to pulmonary findings, cardiovascular morbidity, neurological diseases, and occupational diseases.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Warming can be demonstrated by the observed changes that have already occurred in the environment, particularly the thinning of polar ice caps. The United States Global Research Program has been established to coordinate research activities, which responds to issues deemed important by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Research issues pertain to the scientific uncertainties in the greenhouse effect, temperature measurements at various atmospheric levels and latitudes, and impact on biota redistribution. The Kyoto Protocol has mandated specific solutions, e.g., a 7% reduction in CO2 levels within 10 years. Future recommendations involve supporting new technologies that are available to decrease emissions as well as understanding the role that occupational and environmental specialists have in global warming recognition.}, }
@article {pmid11493886, year = {2001}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Senate urges Bush to act on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {412}, number = {6847}, pages = {575}, doi = {10.1038/35088205}, pmid = {11493886}, issn = {0028-0836}, }
@article {pmid11489423, year = {2001}, author = {Epstein, PR}, title = {Climate change and emerging infectious diseases.}, journal = {Microbes and infection}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {747-754}, doi = {10.1016/s1286-4579(01)01429-0}, pmid = {11489423}, issn = {1286-4579}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*epidemiology ; Culicidae/physiology ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/physiology ; }, abstract = {The ranges of infectious diseases and vectors are changing in altitude, along with shifts in plant communities and the retreat of alpine glaciers. Additionally, extreme weather events create conditions conducive to clusters of insect-, rodent- and water-borne diseases. Accelerating climate change carries profound threats for public health and society.}, }
@article {pmid11486143, year = {2001}, author = {Yang, HM}, title = {A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions.}, journal = {Revista de saude publica}, volume = {35}, number = {3}, pages = {224-231}, doi = {10.1590/s0034-89102001000300002}, pmid = {11486143}, issn = {0034-8910}, mesh = {Animals ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology/*transmission ; *Models, Biological ; Prevalence ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions.<br><br>METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals.<br><br>RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed.<br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.}, }
@article {pmid11480701, year = {2001}, author = {Pörtner, HO}, title = {Climate change and temperature-dependent biogeography: oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance in animals.}, journal = {Die Naturwissenschaften}, volume = {88}, number = {4}, pages = {137-146}, doi = {10.1007/s001140100216}, pmid = {11480701}, issn = {0028-1042}, mesh = {*Acclimatization ; Aerobiosis ; Anaerobiosis ; Animals ; Body Temperature Regulation ; *Climate ; *Geography ; Mitochondria/metabolism ; Oxygen/metabolism ; Oxygen Consumption ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Recent years have shown a rise in mean global temperatures and a shift in the geographical distribution of ectothermic animals. For a cause and effect analysis the present paper discusses those physiological processes limiting thermal tolerance. The lower heat tolerance in metazoa compared with unicellular eukaryotes and bacteria suggests that a complex systemic rather than molecular process is limiting in metazoa. Whole-animal aerobic scope appears as the first process limited at low and high temperatures, linked to the progressively insufficient capacity of circulation and ventilation. Oxygen levels in body fluids may decrease, reflecting excessive oxygen demand at high temperatures or insufficient aerobic capacity of mitochondria at low temperatures. Aerobic scope falls at temperatures beyond the thermal optimum and vanishes at low or high critical temperatures when transition to an anaerobic mitochondrial metabolism occurs. The adjustment of mitochondrial densities on top of parallel molecular or membrane adjustments appears crucial for maintaining aerobic scope and for shifting thermal tolerance. In conclusion, the capacity of oxygen delivery matches full aerobic scope only within the thermal optimum. At temperatures outside this range, only time-limited survival is supported by residual aerobic scope, then anaerobic metabolism and finally molecular protection by heat shock proteins and antioxidative defence. In a cause and effect hierarchy, the progressive increase in oxygen limitation at extreme temperatures may even enhance oxidative and denaturation stress. As a corollary, capacity limitations at a complex level of organisation, the oxygen delivery system, define thermal tolerance limits before molecular functions become disturbed.}, }
@article {pmid11474072, year = {2001}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. World starts taming the greenhouse.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {293}, number = {5530}, pages = {583}, doi = {10.1126/science.293.5530.583a}, pmid = {11474072}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11473309, year = {2001}, author = {Mustard, JF and Cooper, CD and Rifkin, MK}, title = {Evidence for recent climate change on Mars from the identification of youthful near-surface ground ice.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {412}, number = {6845}, pages = {411-414}, doi = {10.1038/35086515}, pmid = {11473309}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Climate ; Extraterrestrial Environment ; Ice ; *Mars ; }, abstract = {Ground ice in the crust and soil may be one of the largest reservoirs of water on Mars. Near-surface ground ice is predicted to be stable at latitudes higher than 40 degrees (ref. 4), where a number of geomorphologic features indicative of viscous creep and hence ground ice have been observed. Mid-latitude soils have also been implicated as a water-ice reservoir, the capacity of which is predicted to vary on a 100,000-year timescale owing to orbitally driven variations in climate. It is uncertain, however, whether near-surface ground ice currently exists at these latitudes, and how it is changing with time. Here we report observational evidence for a mid-latitude reservoir of near-surface water ice occupying the pore space of soils. The thickness of the ice-occupied soil reservoir (1-10 m) and its distribution in the 30 degrees to 60 degrees latitude bands indicate a reservoir of (1.5-6.0) x 104 km3, equivalent to a global layer of water 10-40 cm thick. We infer that the reservoir was created during the last phase of high orbital obliquity less than 100,000 years ago, and is now being diminished.}, }
@article {pmid11473281, year = {2001}, author = {Lempert, R and Schlesinger, ME}, title = {Climate-change strategy needs to be robust.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {412}, number = {6845}, pages = {375}, doi = {10.1038/35086617}, pmid = {11473281}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {*Climate ; Forecasting ; *Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid11471652, year = {2000}, author = {Gutmann, JL}, title = {Global warming--a good thing for endodontics!.}, journal = {Journal of endodontics}, volume = {26}, number = {12}, pages = {767}, pmid = {11471652}, issn = {0099-2399}, mesh = {Curriculum ; Endodontics/education/*trends ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Interprofessional Relations ; Societies, Dental ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11463898, year = {2001}, author = {Allen, M and Raper, S and Mitchell, J}, title = {Climate change. Uncertainty in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {293}, number = {5529}, pages = {430-433}, doi = {10.1126/science.1062823}, pmid = {11463898}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11463897, year = {2001}, author = {Reilly, J and Stone, PH and Forest, CE and Webster, MD and Jacoby, HD and Prinn, RG}, title = {Climate change. Uncertainty and climate change assessments.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {293}, number = {5529}, pages = {430-433}, doi = {10.1126/science.1062001}, pmid = {11463897}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Clear and quantitative discussion of uncertainties is critical for public policy making on climate change. The recently completed report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessed the uncertainty in its findings and forecasts. The uncertainty assessment process of the IPCC should be improved in the future by using a consistent approach to quantifying uncertainty, focusing the quantification on the few key results most important for policy making. The uncertainty quantification procedure should be fully documented, and if expert judgment is used, a specific list of the experts consulted should be included.}, }
@article {pmid11454371, year = {2001}, author = {Lindgren, E and Gustafson, R}, title = {Tick-borne encephalitis in Sweden and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {358}, number = {9275}, pages = {16-18}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(00)05250-8}, pmid = {11454371}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Encephalitis, Tick-Borne/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Risk Factors ; Sweden/epidemiology ; Ticks/growth &amp; development/virology ; }, abstract = {BACKGROUND: The incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Sweden has substantially increased since the mid-1980s. During the same period the climate has become milder and ticks have become more abundant. We investigated whether there is a link between the change in climate and the increase in incidence of TBE.<br><br>METHODS: Since the late 1950s all cases of encephalitis admitted in Stockholm County have been serologically tested for TBE. We analysed the period 1960-98 with multiple regressions. The number of days per season with temperatures of known importance for tick prevalence and pathogen transmission were studied. 2 years of temperature data were related to each TBE incidence rate to account for the tick's long life-span.<br><br>FINDINGS: Increases in disease incidence was significantly related (R(2)=0.58; p<0.0001) to a combination of two consecutive mild winters, temperatures favouring spring development (8-10 degrees C) and extended autumn activity (5-8 degrees C) in the year prior to the incidence year, and temperatures allowing tick activity (5-8 degrees C) early in the incidence year.<br><br>INTERPRETATIONS: The findings indicate that the increase in TBE incidence since the mid-1980s is related to the period's change towards milder winters and early arrival of spring. Other factors may have influenced TBE incidence such as more people in endemic locations, and increases in host animal populations; factors which are partly climate related. Access to TBE vaccination since 1986 and increased awareness of ticks might have caused an underestimation of the links found. Our findings also suggest that the incidence of other tick-borne zoonoses might have been affected by the milder climate.}, }
@article {pmid11452290, year = {2001}, author = {Prinn, RG}, title = {Planetary science. Climate change on Venus.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {412}, number = {6842}, pages = {36-37}, doi = {10.1038/35083679}, pmid = {11452290}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Climate ; *Extraterrestrial Environment ; *Venus ; }, }
@article {pmid11452120, year = {2001}, author = {Clark, PU and Marshall, SJ and Clarke, GK and Hostetler, SW and Licciardi, JM and Teller, JT}, title = {Freshwater forcing of abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {293}, number = {5528}, pages = {283-287}, doi = {10.1126/science.1062517}, pmid = {11452120}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Large millennial-scale fluctuations of the southern margin of the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet occurred during the last deglaciation, when the margin was located between about 43 degrees and 49 degrees N. Fluctuations of the ice margin triggered episodic increases in the flux of freshwater to the North Atlantic by rerouting continental runoff from the Mississippi River drainage to the Hudson or St. Lawrence Rivers. We found that periods of increased freshwater flow to the North Atlantic occurred at the same time as reductions in the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, thus providing a mechanism for observed climate variability that may be generally characteristic of times of intermediate global ice volume.}, }
@article {pmid11452099, year = {2001}, author = {Pickrell, J}, title = {Climate change. Scientists shower climate change delegates with paper.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {293}, number = {5528}, pages = {200}, doi = {10.1126/science.293.5528.200}, pmid = {11452099}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11452098, year = {2001}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. Major challenges for Bush's climate initiative.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {293}, number = {5528}, pages = {199-201}, doi = {10.1126/science.293.5528.199}, pmid = {11452098}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11444289, year = {2001}, author = {Trenberth, KE}, title = {Climate variability and global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {293}, number = {5527}, pages = {48-49}, doi = {10.1126/science.293.5527.48}, pmid = {11444289}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Ice ; National Academy of Sciences, U.S. ; Solar Activity ; United States ; Volcanic Eruptions ; }, }
@article {pmid11441174, year = {2001}, author = {Herbert, TD and Schuffert, JD and Andreasen, D and Heusser, L and Lyle, M and Mix, A and Ravelo, AC and Stott, LD and Herguera, JC}, title = {Collapse of the California Current during glacial maxima linked to climate change on land.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {293}, number = {5527}, pages = {71-76}, doi = {10.1126/science.1059209}, pmid = {11441174}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Calcium Carbonate ; California ; *Climate ; Diatoms/physiology ; *Ice ; Models, Biological ; Nevada ; Pacific Ocean ; Pollen ; *Seawater/analysis ; Temperature ; Trees/physiology ; }, abstract = {Time series of alkenone unsaturation indices gathered along the California margin reveal large (4 degrees to 8 degrees C) glacial-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the past 550,000 years. Interglacial times with SSTs equal to or exceeding that of the Holocene contain peak abundances in the pollen of redwood, the distinctive component of the temperate rainforest of the northwest coast of California. In the region now dominated by the California Current, SSTs warmed 10,000 to 15,000 years in advance of deglaciation at each of the past five glacial maxima. SSTs did not rise in advance of deglaciation south of the modern California Current front. Glacial warming along the California margin therefore is a regional signal of the weakening of the California Current during times when large ice sheets reorganized wind systems over the North Pacific. Both the timing and magnitude of the SST estimates suggest that the Devils Hole (Nevada) calcite record represents regional but not global paleotemperatures, and hence does not pose a fundamental challenge to the orbital ("Milankovitch") theory of the Ice Ages.}, }
@article {pmid11441159, year = {2001}, author = {Koenig, R}, title = {Climate change. Experts urge speedup to mine 'archives'.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {293}, number = {5527}, pages = {31}, doi = {10.1126/science.293.5527.31}, pmid = {11441159}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Cnidaria/physiology ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ice ; International Cooperation ; Oceans and Seas ; Specimen Handling/*methods ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Trees/growth &amp; development/physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid11427391, year = {2001}, author = {Cifuentes, L and Borja-Aburto, VH and Gouveia, N and Thurston, G and Davis, DL}, title = {Assessing the health benefits of urban air pollution reductions associated with climate change mitigation (2000-2020): Santiago, São Paulo, México City, and New York City.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {109 Suppl 3}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {419-425}, pmid = {11427391}, issn = {0091-6765}, support = {ES 00260/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Air Pollution/*adverse effects/*prevention &amp; control ; Bronchitis/etiology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Life Expectancy ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Morbidity ; Mortality/*trends ; *Public Health ; Public Policy ; Urban Population ; }, abstract = {To investigate the potential local health benefits of adopting greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies, we develop scenarios of GHG mitigation for México City, México; Santiago, Chile; São Paulo, Brazil; and New York, New York, USA using air pollution health impact factors appropriate to each city. We estimate that the adoption of readily available technologies to lessen fossil fuel emissions over the next two decades in these four cities alone will reduce particulate matter and ozone and avoid approximately 64,000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 18,000-116,000) premature deaths (including infant deaths), 65,000 (95% CI 22,000-108,000) chronic bronchitis cases, and 46 million (95% CI 35-58 million) person-days of work loss or other restricted activity. These findings illustrate that GHG mitigation can provide considerable local air pollution-related public health benefits to countries that choose to abate GHG emissions by reducing fossil fuel combustion.}, }
@article {pmid11423641, year = {2001}, author = {Wofsy, SC}, title = {Climate change. Where has all the carbon gone?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5525}, pages = {2261-2263}, doi = {10.1126/science.1061077}, pmid = {11423641}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Atmosphere ; *Carbon/metabolism ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; China ; Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Fires ; Forestry ; Fossil Fuels ; Industry ; Public Policy ; Soil ; *Trees/metabolism ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11423637, year = {2001}, author = {Krajick, K}, title = {Glaciology. Tracking icebergs for clues to climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5525}, pages = {2244-2245}, doi = {10.1126/science.292.5525.2244}, pmid = {11423637}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11411489, year = {2001}, author = {Bradley, RS}, title = {Many citations support global warming trend.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5524}, pages = {2011}, doi = {10.1126/science.292.5524.2011a}, pmid = {11411489}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Animals ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice ; Oceans and Seas ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid11408625, year = {2001}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. Bush backs spending for a 'global problem'.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5524}, pages = {1978}, doi = {10.1126/science.292.5524.1978}, pmid = {11408625}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11397932, year = {2001}, author = {Sandalow, DB and Bowles, IA}, title = {Climate change. Fundamentals of treaty-making on climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5523}, pages = {1839-1840}, doi = {10.1126/science.1062174}, pmid = {11397932}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Ecosystem ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Industry ; *International Cooperation ; Politics ; Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid11397761, year = {2001}, author = {Haines, A}, title = {What author really said about malaria and climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {322}, number = {7299}, pages = {1429}, pmid = {11397761}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {*Climate ; Humans ; Incidence ; Malaria/*epidemiology ; Travel ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid11385559, year = {2001}, author = {Sturm, M and Racine, C and Tape, K}, title = {Climate change. Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {411}, number = {6837}, pages = {546-547}, doi = {10.1038/35079180}, pmid = {11385559}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {The warming of the Alaskan Arctic during the past 150 years has accelerated over the last three decades and is expected to increase vegetation productivity in tundra if shrubs become more abundant; indeed, this transition may already be under way according to local plot studies and remote sensing. Here we present evidence for a widespread increase in shrub abundance over more than 320 km of Arctic landscape during the past 50 years, based on a comparison of historic and modern aerial photographs. This expansion will alter the partitioning of energy in summer and the trapping and distribution of snow in winter, as well as increasing the amount of carbon stored in a region that is believed to be a net source of carbon dioxide.}, }
@article {pmid11370968, year = {2001}, author = {Yom-Tov, Y}, title = {Global warming and body mass decline in Israeli passerine birds.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {268}, number = {1470}, pages = {947-952}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.2001.1592}, pmid = {11370968}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Analysis of Variance ; Animals ; Body Weight/*physiology ; Climate ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Israel ; Male ; Regression Analysis ; Seasons ; Sex Characteristics ; Songbirds/*anatomy &amp; histology/*physiology ; Species Specificity ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Global warming may affect the physiology, distributions, phenology and adaptations of plants and animals. In Israel, minimum summer temperatures increased by an average of 0.26 degrees C per decade during the second half of the 20th century. Bergmann's rule predicts that, in warm-blooded animals, races from warm regions are smaller than races from cold regions. Numerous studies have reported general correlations between body mass in fossil animals and independently established palaeoclimatic changes from various parts of the world in accordance with this rule. Using museum specimens, I tested the prediction that the body mass and tarsus length of five resident passerine species in Israel declined between 1950 and 1999. The body mass of four species (the graceful warbler Prinia gracilis, the house sparrow Passer domesticus, the yellow-vented bulbul Pycnonotus xanthopygos and the Sardinian warbler Sylvia melanocephala, but not of the crested lark Galerida cristata) declined significantly during this period. Tarsus length also declined significantly during this period for two species (the graceful warbler and the house sparrow). Body condition (body mass-to-tarsus length ratio) decreased in the Sardinian warbler, the yellow-vented bulbul and the crested lark. It is suggested that the above declines in body mass and tarsus length are due to global warming and also in accordance with Bergmann's rule. The above explanation does not exclude the possibility that other factors, such as a decrease in food availability, contributed to the decline in body mass. These declines may have serious implications for community structure and competition among bird species and may affect the survival of small passerines.}, }
@article {pmid11360969, year = {2001}, author = {Kaiser, J}, title = {Climate change. 17 national academies endorse Kyoto.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5520}, pages = {1275-1277}, doi = {10.1126/science.292.5520.1275b}, pmid = {11360969}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {*Academies and Institutes ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Japan ; *Public Policy ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11360966, year = {2001}, author = {,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and ,  and , }, title = {The science of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5520}, pages = {1261}, doi = {10.1126/science.292.5520.1261}, pmid = {11360966}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Academies and Institutes ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *International Cooperation ; Public Policy ; Reproducibility of Results ; }, }
@article {pmid11357129, year = {2001}, author = {Both, C and Visser, ME}, title = {Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant bird.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {411}, number = {6835}, pages = {296-298}, doi = {10.1038/35077063}, pmid = {11357129}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {*Adaptation, Physiological ; Africa ; Animals ; Biological Clocks/physiology ; Birds/*physiology ; Female ; *Flight, Animal ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Homing Behavior/*physiology ; Male ; Netherlands ; Reproduction/physiology ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {Spring temperatures in temperate regions have increased over the past 20 years, and many organisms have responded to this increase by advancing the date of their growth and reproduction. Here we show that adaptation to climate change in a long-distance migrant is constrained by the timing of its migratory journey. For long-distance migrants climate change may advance the phenology of their breeding areas, but the timing of some species' spring migration relies on endogenous rhythms that are not affected by climate change. Thus, the spring migration of these species will not advance even though they need to arrive earlier on their breeding grounds to breed at the appropriate time. We show that the migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca has advanced its laying date over the past 20 years. This temporal shift has been insufficient, however, as indicated by increased selection for earlier breeding over the same period. The shift is hampered by its spring arrival date, which has not advanced. Some of the numerous long-distance migrants will suffer from climate change, because either their migration strategy is unaffected by climate change, or the climate in breeding and wintering areas are changing at different speeds, preventing adequate adaptation.}, }
@article {pmid11357087, year = {2001}, author = {Goodwin, I}, title = {United States treads its own path on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {411}, number = {6835}, pages = {225}, doi = {10.1038/35077274}, pmid = {11357087}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Government ; *Greenhouse Effect ; International Cooperation ; *National Academy of Sciences, U.S. ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11354731, year = {2001}, author = {}, title = {UNEP confirms rapid global warming.}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {20N}, pmid = {11354731}, issn = {1464-0325}, mesh = {Climate ; Costs and Cost Analysis ; Environmental Pollution/*economics/*prevention &amp; control ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid11353840, year = {2001}, author = {Wilf, P and Labandeira, CC and Johnson, KR and Coley, PD and Cutter, AD}, title = {Insect herbivory, plant defense, and early Cenozoic climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {98}, number = {11}, pages = {6221-6226}, pmid = {11353840}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; *Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; *Fossils ; *Insecta ; Paleontology ; *Plants ; }, abstract = {Insect damage on fossil leaves from the Central Rocky Mountains, United States, documents the response of herbivores to changing regional climates and vegetation during the late Paleocene (humid, warm temperate to subtropical, predominantly deciduous), early Eocene (humid subtropical, mixed deciduous and evergreen), and middle Eocene (seasonally dry, subtropical, mixed deciduous and thick-leaved evergreen). During all three time periods, greater herbivory occurred on taxa considered to have short rather than long leaf life spans, consistent with studies in living forests that demonstrate the insect resistance of long-lived, thick leaves. Variance in herbivory frequency and diversity was highest during the middle Eocene, indicating the increased representation of two distinct herbivory syndromes: one for taxa with deciduous, palatable foliage, and the other for hosts with evergreen, thick-textured, small leaves characterized by elevated insect resistance. Leaf galling, which is negatively correlated with moisture today, apparently increased during the middle Eocene, whereas leaf mining decreased.}, }
@article {pmid11352051, year = {2001}, author = {Martens, P and Moser, SC}, title = {Health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5519}, pages = {1065-1066}, doi = {10.1126/science.292.5519.1065}, pmid = {11352051}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/*etiology/transmission ; *Ecosystem ; Humans ; National Academy of Sciences, U.S. ; *Public Health/trends ; Risk Factors ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11352050, year = {2001}, author = {Lloyd, I}, title = {Or, global warming: a $25-billion challenge?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5519}, pages = {1064-1065}, doi = {10.1126/science.292.5519.1064}, pmid = {11352050}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Fossil Fuels/*economics ; Government ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Nuclear Energy/economics ; Research/economics ; United Kingdom ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11352049, year = {2001}, author = {Singer, SF}, title = {Global warming: an insignificant trend?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5519}, pages = {1063-1064}, doi = {10.1126/science.292.5519.1063b}, pmid = {11352049}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Conservation of Energy Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Ice ; Models, Biological ; National Academy of Sciences, U.S. ; Oceans and Seas ; Risk Assessment ; United Nations ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11346792, year = {2001}, author = {Barbraud, C and Weimerskirch, H}, title = {Emperor penguins and climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {411}, number = {6834}, pages = {183-186}, doi = {10.1038/35075554}, pmid = {11346792}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Aging/physiology ; Animals ; Animals, Newborn/physiology ; Antarctic Regions ; Birds/*physiology ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Female ; Food Chain ; Ice ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Oceans and Seas ; Population Density ; Reproduction ; Seasons ; Seawater ; Sex Characteristics ; Sex Distribution ; Survival Rate ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Variations in ocean-atmosphere coupling over time in the Southern Ocean have dominant effects on sea-ice extent and ecosystem structure, but the ultimate consequences of such environmental changes for large marine predators cannot be accurately predicted because of the absence of long-term data series on key demographic parameters. Here, we use the longest time series available on demographic parameters of an Antarctic large predator breeding on fast ice and relying on food resources from the Southern Ocean. We show that over the past 50 years, the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) in Terre Adélie has declined by 50% because of a decrease in adult survival during the late 1970s. At this time there was a prolonged abnormally warm period with reduced sea-ice extent. Mortality rates increased when warm sea-surface temperatures occurred in the foraging area and when annual sea-ice extent was reduced, and were higher for males than for females. In contrast with survival, emperor penguins hatched fewer eggs when winter sea-ice was extended. These results indicate strong and contrasting effects of large-scale oceanographic processes and sea-ice extent on the demography of emperor penguins, and their potential high susceptibility to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid11346771, year = {2001}, author = {Wright, JD}, title = {Climate change. The Indonesian valve.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {411}, number = {6834}, pages = {142-143}, doi = {10.1038/35075684}, pmid = {11346771}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Africa, Eastern ; *Climate ; History, Ancient ; Indian Ocean ; Indonesia ; Pacific Ocean ; Seawater ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid11341284, year = {2001}, author = {Crowley, TJ and Berner, RA}, title = {Paleoclimate. CO2 and climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5518}, pages = {870-872}, doi = {10.1126/science.1061664}, pmid = {11341284}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Animals ; *Atmosphere ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Eukaryota ; Fossils ; Geologic Sediments ; Oceans and Seas ; Oxygen Isotopes ; Plants ; Time ; }, }
@article {pmid11339706, year = {2001}, author = {Gunn, JM and Snucins, E and Yan, ND and Arts, MT}, title = {Use of water clarity to monitor the effects of climate change and other stressors on oligotrophic lakes.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {67}, number = {1-2}, pages = {69-88}, pmid = {11339706}, issn = {0167-6369}, mesh = {*Acid Rain ; *Climate ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Eutrophication ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Oxygen/*analysis ; Particle Size ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Water Pollution/*analysis ; }, abstract = {We present evidence from studies of lakes in Killarney Park, Ontario, Canada that water clarity is a key variable for monitoring the effects of climate change, high UV exposure and acidification. In small oligotrophic lakes, these stressors affect water clarity primarily by altering the concentration of DOC in lake water. Clear lakes (<2 mg L(-1) DOC) proved to be highly sensitive indicators of stressors, exhibiting large thermal and optical responses to small changes in DOC. Extremely clear (<0.5 mg L(-1) DOC) acidic lakes showed the effects of climate change and solar bleaching in recent decades. These lakes became much clearer even though they were slowly recovering from acidification.}, }
@article {pmid11339699, year = {2001}, author = {Conly, FM and Van der Kamp, G}, title = {Monitoring the hydrology of Canadian prairie wetlands to detect the effects of climate change and land use changes.}, journal = {Environmental monitoring and assessment}, volume = {67}, number = {1-2}, pages = {195-215}, pmid = {11339699}, issn = {0167-6369}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds ; Canada ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring/methods ; Forecasting ; *Water Movements ; }, abstract = {There are millions of small isolated wetlands in the semi-arid Canadian prairies. These sloughs' are refuges for wildlife in an area that is otherwise intensively used for agriculture. They are particularly important as waterfowl habitat, with more than half of all North American ducks nesting in prairie sloughs. The water levels and ecology of the wetlands are sensitive to atmospheric change and to changes of agricultural practices in the surrounding fields. Monitoring of the hydrological conditions of the wetlands across the region is vital for detecting long-term trends and for studying the processes that control the water balance of the wetlands. Such monitoring therefore requires extensive regional-scale data complemented by intensive measurements at a few locations. At present, wetlands are being enumerated across the region once each year and year-round monitoring is being carried out at a few locations. The regional-scale data can be statistically related to regional climate data, but such analyses cast little light on the hydrological processes and have limited predictive value when climate and land use are changing. The intensive monitoring network has provided important insights but it now needs to be expanded and revised to meet new questions concerning the effects of climate change and land use.}, }
@article {pmid11335198, year = {2001}, author = {Breslin, K}, title = {Hot new report on climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {109}, number = {4}, pages = {A157}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.109-a157a}, pmid = {11335198}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Industry ; International Cooperation ; Models, Theoretical ; Policy Making ; *Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid11333950, year = {2001}, author = {Schneider, SH}, title = {What is 'dangerous' climate change?.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {411}, number = {6833}, pages = {17-19}, doi = {10.1038/35075167}, pmid = {11333950}, issn = {0028-0836}, }
@article {pmid11326089, year = {2001}, author = {Davis, MB and Shaw, RG}, title = {Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5517}, pages = {673-679}, doi = {10.1126/science.292.5517.673}, pmid = {11326089}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Biological Evolution ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Genes, Plant ; Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Pollen ; Time ; Trees/genetics/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {Tree taxa shifted latitude or elevation range in response to changes in Quaternary climate. Because many modern trees display adaptive differentiation in relation to latitude or elevation, it is likely that ancient trees were also so differentiated, with environmental sensitivities of populations throughout the range evolving in conjunction with migrations. Rapid climate changes challenge this process by imposing stronger selection and by distancing populations from environments to which they are adapted. The unprecedented rates of climate changes anticipated to occur in the future, coupled with land use changes that impede gene flow, can be expected to disrupt the interplay of adaptation and migration, likely affecting productivity and threatening the persistence of many species.}, }
@article {pmid11323051, year = {2001}, author = {McCarthy, M}, title = {Uncertain impact of global warming on disease.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {357}, number = {9263}, pages = {1183}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(00)04388-9}, pmid = {11323051}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Animals ; Culicidae ; *Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Infections ; Insect Vectors ; National Academy of Sciences, U.S. ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11314734, year = {2000}, author = {Hammitt, JK and Harvey, CM}, title = {Equity, efficiency, uncertainty, and the mitigation of global climate change.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {851-860}, doi = {10.1111/0272-4332.206078}, pmid = {11314734}, issn = {0272-4332}, abstract = {Policies to mitigate potential damages from global climate change impose costs on the current generation to provide benefits to future generations. This article examines how comparisons among three stylized policies-business-as-usual, mitigation of climate change, and compensation for climate damages-depend on social preferences with respect to risk and intertemporal equity. Also examined is the opportunity-cost criterion, which asserts that mitigation should not be chosen if its net present value is smaller than that of business-as-usual. Analysis reveals that the discount factor used to evaluate whether mitigation satisfies this criterion depends on preferences regarding risk and intertemporal inequality of consumption, and on the risk of the compensation policy. Risk aversion favors mitigation over business-as-usual. If society is neutral to inequality, risk aversion disfavors compensation, but if society is inequality averse, the effect of risk aversion on preferences between compensation and business-as-usual is ambiguous. Inequality aversion tends to favor business-as-usual over both alternative policies provided that, roughly speaking, the anticipated future improvements in welfare exceed the anticipated climate damages.}, }
@article {pmid11309607, year = {2001}, author = {Peizhen, Z and Molnar, P and Downs, WR}, title = {Increased sedimentation rates and grain sizes 2-4 Myr ago due to the influence of climate change on erosion rates.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {410}, number = {6831}, pages = {891-897}, doi = {10.1038/35073504}, pmid = {11309607}, issn = {0028-0836}, abstract = {Around the globe, and in a variety of settings including active and inactive mountain belts, increases in sedimentation rates as well as in grain sizes of sediments were recorded at approximately 2-4 Myr ago, implying increased erosion rates. A change in climate represents the only process that is globally synchronous and can potentially account for the widespread increase in erosion and sedimentation, but no single process-like a lowering of sea levels or expanded glaciation-can explain increases in sedimentation in all environments, encompassing continental margins and interiors, and tropical as well as higher latitudes. We suggest that climate affected erosion mainly by the transition from a period of climate stability, in which landscapes had attained equilibrium configurations, to a time of frequent and abrupt changes in temperature, precipitation and vegetation, which prevented fluvial and glacial systems from establishing equilibrium states.}, }
@article {pmid11305302, year = {2001}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. Greenhouse warming passes one more test.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5515}, pages = {193}, doi = {10.1126/science.292.5515.193}, pmid = {11305302}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11305301, year = {2001}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. Rising global temperature, rising uncertainty.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5515}, pages = {192-194}, doi = {10.1126/science.292.5515.192}, pmid = {11305301}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11303099, year = {2001}, author = {Barnett, TP and Pierce, DW and Schnur, R}, title = {Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5515}, pages = {270-274}, doi = {10.1126/science.1058304}, pmid = {11303099}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Large-scale increases in the heat content of the world's oceans have been observed to occur over the last 45 years. The horizontal and temporal character of these changes has been closely replicated by the state-of-the-art Parallel Climate Model (PCM) forced by observed and estimated anthropogenic gases. Application of optimal detection methodology shows that the model-produced signals are indistinguishable from the observations at the 0.05 confidence level. Further, the chances of either the anthropogenic or observed signals being produced by the PCM as a result of natural, internal forcing alone are less than 5%. This suggests that the observed ocean heat-content changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic forcing, which broadens the basis for claims that an anthropogenic signal has been detected in the global climate system. Additionally, the requirement that modeled ocean heat uptakes match observations puts a strong, new constraint on anthropogenically forced climate models. It is unknown if the current generation of climate models, other than the PCM, meet this constraint.}, }
@article {pmid11303088, year = {2001}, author = {deMenocal, PB}, title = {Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5517}, pages = {667-673}, doi = {10.1126/science.1059827}, pmid = {11303088}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Archaeology ; *Climate ; *Culture ; *Disasters ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Rural Population ; Time ; Urban Population ; }, abstract = {Modern complex societies exhibit marked resilience to interannual-to- decadal droughts, but cultural responses to multidecadal-to-multicentury droughts can only be addressed by integrating detailed archaeological and paleoclimatic records. Four case studies drawn from New and Old World civilizations document societal responses to prolonged drought, including population dislocations, urban abandonment, and state collapse. Further study of past cultural adaptations to persistent climate change may provide valuable perspective on possible responses of modern societies to future climate change.}, }
@article {pmid11296776, year = {2000}, author = {}, title = {Arctic nations to assess climate change.}, journal = {Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM}, volume = {2}, number = {6}, pages = {97N-98N}, pmid = {11296776}, issn = {1464-0325}, mesh = {Air Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; Arctic Regions ; Ecosystem ; *Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Interprofessional Relations ; }, }
@article {pmid11294196, year = {2001}, author = {Biggin, S}, title = {Venice preservation. Climate change data prompt new review.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5514}, pages = {28}, doi = {10.1126/science.292.5514.28a}, pmid = {11294196}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11292869, year = {2001}, author = {Hoerling, MP and Hurrell, JW and Xu, T}, title = {Tropical origins for recent North Atlantic climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {292}, number = {5514}, pages = {90-92}, doi = {10.1126/science.1058582}, pmid = {11292869}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {Evidence is presented that North Atlantic climate change since 1950 is linked to a progressive warming of tropical sea surface temperatures, especially over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The ocean changes alter the pattern and magnitude of tropical rainfall and atmospheric heating, the atmospheric response to which includes the spatial structure of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The slow, tropical ocean warming has thus forced a commensurate trend toward one extreme phase of the NAO during the past half-century.}, }
@article {pmid11290624, year = {2001}, author = {Ghazi, P}, title = {Scientists attack Bush over U turn on climate change treaty.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {322}, number = {7290}, pages = {813}, pmid = {11290624}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Public Policy ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11287909, year = {2001}, author = {Pockley, P}, title = {Climate change transforms island ecosystem.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {410}, number = {6829}, pages = {616}, doi = {10.1038/35070741}, pmid = {11287909}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; Australia ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Indian Ocean Islands ; Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid11286261, year = {2001}, author = {Pennisi, E}, title = {Climate change. Early birds may miss the worms.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {291}, number = {5513}, pages = {2532}, doi = {10.1126/science.291.5513.2532}, pmid = {11286261}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; Animals ; *Climate ; *Energy Metabolism ; Female ; *Food ; France ; Male ; Nesting Behavior ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; Songbirds/*physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid11285789, year = {2001}, author = {McMichael, AJ}, title = {Health consequences of global climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine}, volume = {94}, number = {3}, pages = {111-114}, doi = {10.1177/014107680109400303}, pmid = {11285789}, issn = {0141-0768}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Environmental Pollution ; Epidemiologic Methods ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Incidence ; Models, Statistical ; Prevalence ; Risk Management ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid11274908, year = {2001}, author = {Patz, JA and Reisen, WK}, title = {Immunology, climate change and vector-borne diseases.}, journal = {Trends in immunology}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {171-172}, doi = {10.1016/s1471-4906(01)01867-1}, pmid = {11274908}, issn = {1471-4906}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; Animals ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/*immunology/transmission ; Culicidae ; Encephalitis, Arbovirus/epidemiology/immunology/transmission ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Immunocompetence ; *Insect Vectors ; Malaria/epidemiology/immunology/transmission ; Severe Dengue/epidemiology/immunology/transmission ; }, abstract = {Global climate change might expand the distribution of vector-borne pathogens in both time and space, thereby exposing host populations to longer transmission seasons, and immunologically naive populations to newly introduced pathogens. In the African highlands, where cool temperatures limit malaria parasite development, increases in temperature might enhance malaria transmission. St Louis encephalitis viral replication and the length of the transmission season depend upon ambient temperature. Warming temperatures in the American southwest might place at risk migratory, non-immune elderly persons that arrive in early fall to spend the winter. Warm temperatures might intensify or extend the transmission season for dengue fever. Immunologists should examine this interplay between human immunocompetence and vector-borne disease risks in a warmer world.}, }
@article {pmid11256405, year = {2001}, author = {Töpfer, K}, title = {Climate change. Whither after The Hague?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {291}, number = {5511}, pages = {2095-2096}, doi = {10.1126/science.1059490}, pmid = {11256405}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Air Pollutants ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Energy-Generating Resources ; Forestry ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *International Cooperation ; Trees ; United Nations ; }, }
@article {pmid11250812, year = {2001}, author = {Reiter, P}, title = {Climate change and mosquito-borne disease.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {109 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {141-161}, pmid = {11250812}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Animals ; *Culicidae ; Dengue/transmission ; *Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Environmental Health ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Insect Vectors ; Malaria/transmission ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Public Health ; Yellow Fever/transmission ; }, abstract = {Global atmospheric temperatures are presently in a warming phase that began 250--300 years ago. Speculations on the potential impact of continued warming on human health often focus on mosquito-borne diseases. Elementary models suggest that higher global temperatures will enhance their transmission rates and extend their geographic ranges. However, the histories of three such diseases--malaria, yellow fever, and dengue--reveal that climate has rarely been the principal determinant of their prevalence or range; human activities and their impact on local ecology have generally been much more significant. It is therefore inappropriate to use climate-based models to predict future prevalence.}, }
@article {pmid11247562, year = {2001}, author = {Kapp, C}, title = {Climate change likely to prove deadly, says United Nations report.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {357}, number = {9257}, pages = {696}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(05)71462-8}, pmid = {11247562}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {*Developing Countries ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid11234040, year = {2001}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Climate change offers bleak future.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {409}, number = {6823}, pages = {971}, doi = {10.1038/35059295}, pmid = {11234040}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid11233535, year = {2000}, author = {}, title = {Global warming: worrisome signs.}, journal = {Population reports. Series M, Special topics}, volume = {}, number = {15}, pages = {16-17}, pmid = {11233535}, issn = {0733-9135}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Carbon ; Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hazardous Substances ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid11229388, year = {2001}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Climate change. It's official: humans are behind most of global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {291}, number = {5504}, pages = {566}, doi = {10.1126/science.291.5504.566a}, pmid = {11229388}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11215015, year = {2000}, author = {Beggs, PJ}, title = {Impacts of climate and climate change on medications and human health.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {24}, number = {6}, pages = {630-632}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-842x.2000.tb00531.x}, pmid = {11215015}, issn = {1326-0200}, mesh = {*Climate ; Drug Storage/*methods ; *Drug-Related Side Effects and Adverse Reactions ; *Health Status ; Humans ; New South Wales ; Risk Assessment ; Temperature ; Ultraviolet Rays/*adverse effects ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To examine impacts of climate and climate change on medications and human health.<br><br>METHODS: Literature review and analysis of MIMS.<br><br>RESULTS: Changed climate associated with the enhanced Greenhouse Effect (e.g. increased temperature) may lead to medication-related health impacts through deterioration of storage conditions, increased heat stress from medication-induced heat intolerance, and by influencing pharmacokinetics. Increases in UV radiation from stratospheric ozone depletion may increase the significance of medications that can lead to an increased sensitivity to the damaging effects of UV radiation (i.e. photosensitivity).<br><br>CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Raising awareness of the impacts of climate on medications, and of climate-related side-effects, among both health care professionals and the public, should modify behaviour and therefore reduce the risks of such adverse impacts.}, }
@article {pmid11206514, year = {2001}, author = {Schiermeier, Q}, title = {Assessment ups the ante on climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {409}, number = {6819}, pages = {445}, doi = {10.1038/35054215}, pmid = {11206514}, issn = {0028-0836}, }
@article {pmid11201717, year = {2001}, author = {Singer, SF}, title = {Difficulty in reconciling global-warming data.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {409}, number = {6818}, pages = {281}, doi = {10.1038/35053324}, pmid = {11201717}, issn = {0028-0836}, }
@article {pmid11200201, year = {2000}, author = {, }, title = {Climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion. Early effects on our health in Europe.}, journal = {WHO regional publications. European series}, volume = {}, number = {88}, pages = {i-xii, 1-116}, pmid = {11200201}, issn = {0378-2255}, mesh = {*Climate ; Europe ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; *Health ; *Health Planning ; *Health Transition ; Humans ; *Ozone ; }, }
@article {pmid11192012, year = {2001}, author = {Shackleton, N}, title = {Paleoclimate. Climate change across the hemispheres.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {291}, number = {5501}, pages = {58-59}, doi = {10.1126/science.10.1126/science.1057253}, pmid = {11192012}, issn = {0036-8075}, }
@article {pmid11184265, year = {1999}, author = {Arya, SC}, title = {Global warming and performance of antineoplastic therapeutic agents.}, journal = {The Journal of oncology management : the official journal of the American College of Oncology Administrators}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {15-16}, pmid = {11184265}, issn = {1061-9364}, mesh = {Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/*pharmacokinetics/standards ; Biological Availability ; Developing Countries ; Drug Stability ; Drug Storage/*standards ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Humidity/adverse effects ; Temperature ; Tropical Climate ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid11141558, year = {2001}, author = {Blunier, T and Brook, EJ}, title = {Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {291}, number = {5501}, pages = {109-112}, doi = {10.1126/science.291.5501.109}, pmid = {11141558}, issn = {0036-8075}, abstract = {A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings in Antarctica preceded the onset of Greenland warmings by 1500 to 3000 years. In general, Antarctic temperatures increased gradually while Greenland temperatures were decreasing or constant, and the termination of Antarctic warming was apparently coincident with the onset of rapid warming in Greenland. This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a "bipolar see-saw" in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales.}, }
@article {pmid11140648, year = {2000}, author = {Langenberg, H and Aldhous, P}, title = {Global warming. A climate of uncertainty.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {408}, number = {6815}, pages = {896-897}, doi = {10.1038/35050238}, pmid = {11140648}, issn = {0028-0836}, }
@article {pmid11130043, year = {2000}, author = {Copley, J}, title = {Climate change: the great ice mystery.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {408}, number = {6813}, pages = {634-636}, doi = {10.1038/35047263}, pmid = {11130043}, issn = {0028-0836}, }
@article {pmid11114430, year = {2000}, author = {Wilson, K}, title = {Global warming and the spread of disease: the debate heats up.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {488}, doi = {10.1016/s0169-5347(00)02011-5}, pmid = {11114430}, issn = {1872-8383}, }
@article {pmid11099275, year = {2000}, author = {Ghazi, P}, title = {Talks on climate change collapse in acrimony.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {321}, number = {7273}, pages = {1367}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.321.7273.1367}, pmid = {11099275}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {*Climate ; Global Health ; *International Cooperation ; }, }
@article {pmid11098407, year = {2000}, author = {Keller, T and Edouard, JL and Guibal, F and Guiot, J and Tessier, L and Vila, B}, title = {[Impact of the climatic scenario of global warming on the growth of trees].}, journal = {Comptes rendus de l'Academie des sciences. Serie III, Sciences de la vie}, volume = {323}, number = {10}, pages = {913-924}, doi = {10.1016/s0764-4469(00)01238-5}, pmid = {11098407}, issn = {0764-4469}, mesh = {Altitude ; *Climate ; France ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Mediterranean Region ; Seasons ; Trees/*growth &amp; development ; }, abstract = {The climatic impact on tree radial growth resulting from an atmospheric CO2 doubling was studied for 24 populations of five tree species in the French Alps and the French Mediterranean area. The Arpege AGCM, which predicts a 3 degrees C increase in mean temperature and a light increase of precipitation, is used to estimate the climatic perturbation. The method is based on the integration of estimated climate in an empirical tree-ring to climate model, involving artificial neural networks. Only a few populations are sensitive to the climatic change; all are located on the boundaries of their ecological area and can be divided in two groups. The first one is composed of high altitude populations which show a growth increase induced by the warmer climate during the growing season. The second one, composed of a single Mediterranean Scots pine population, reacts with a severe growth reduction induced by the stronger water stress in summer.}, }
@article {pmid11089968, year = {2000}, author = {Cox, PM and Betts, RA and Jones, CD and Spall, SA and Totterdell, IJ}, title = {Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {408}, number = {6809}, pages = {184-187}, doi = {10.1038/35041539}, pmid = {11089968}, issn = {0028-0836}, abstract = {The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr(-1) is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback.}, }
@article {pmid11087033, year = {2000}, author = {Peterson, CJ}, title = {Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the potential impact of climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {262}, number = {3}, pages = {287-311}, doi = {10.1016/s0048-9697(00)00529-5}, pmid = {11087033}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Disasters/economics ; *Ecosystem ; Forestry/methods ; Research ; *Trees ; United States ; }, abstract = {Catastrophic winds from tornadoes and downbursts are a major cause of natural disturbance in forests of eastern North America, accounting for thousands of hectares of disturbed area annually. Wind disturbance shows substantial regional variation, decreasing from the mid-west to the east and from the south-east to New England. In terms of the relative importance among these types of storms, more forest damage results from tornadoes in the south-east and mid-west, while downbursts are the most important type of wind disturbance in the Great Lakes area. Downbursts vary widely in size, but large ones can damage thousands of hectares, while tornadoes are much smaller, seldom affecting more than several hundred hectares. Tornadoes cause the most severe wind disturbances. Site characteristics such as physiography, soil moisture, and soil depth; stand characteristics like density and canopy roughness; and tree characteristics such as size, species, rooting depth, and wood strength, are the factors most recognized as influencing damage patterns. The consequences of wind damage to forests, such as change in environmental conditions, density, size structure, species composition, and successional status, occur on both immediate (hours-to-days) and long-term (months-to-decades) time scales. Most wind disturbances result in the post-disturbance vegetation being comprised of surviving canopy trees, and varying amounts of sprouts, released understory stems, and new seedlings. Stand size structure is usually reduced, and successional status of a forest is often advanced. Diversity can be either increased or decreased, depending on the measure of abundance used to calculate diversity. Because tornadoes and downbursts are in part products of thermodynamic climatic circumstances, they may be affected by anticipated changes in climatic conditions as the 21st century progresses. However, the current understanding of tornado and downburst formation from supercell storms is very incomplete, and climate-change model predictions sufficiently coarse, that predictions of changes in frequency, size, intensity, or timing of these extreme events must be regarded as highly uncertain. Moreover, retrospective approaches that employ tree demography and dendrochronology require prohibitively large sample sizes to resolve details of the relationship between climate fluctuations and characteristics of these storms. To improve predictions of changes in the climatology of these storms, we need improved understanding of the genesis of tornadoes and downbursts within thunderstorms, and greater resolution in global climate models. To improve coping strategies, forest scientists can contribute by giving more attention to how various silvicultural actions influence stand and tree vulnerability. Finally, increased focus on the dynamics of forest recovery and regrowth may suggest management actions that can facilitate desired objectives after one of these unpredictable wind disturbances.}, }
@article {pmid11087031, year = {2000}, author = {Simberloff, D}, title = {Global climate change and introduced species in United States forests.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {262}, number = {3}, pages = {253-261}, doi = {10.1016/s0048-9697(00)00527-1}, pmid = {11087031}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {*Ecosystem ; Genotype ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Plant Diseases ; Species Specificity ; *Trees/classification/genetics/growth &amp; development ; United States ; }, abstract = {Introduced species already cause billions of dollars of damage annually in United States forests, plus massive ecological damage whose economic value has often not been estimated. The variety of impacts is staggering and includes herbivory, predation, disease, parasitism, competition, habitat destruction, hybridization, and changed disturbance regimes and nutrient cycles. How global climate change will affect these impacts has scarcely been assessed. Range changes of existing introduced species will be prominent, as many species' biogeographic ranges are set primarily by climate. Similarly, some species that might otherwise not have survived will be able to establish populations in a changed climate. It is more difficult to predict what the impacts of the introduced species will be. What is most needed are studies of the combined impacts of changing climate, CO2, and nutrients. Certain aspects of the biology of introduced species, such as evolution and autonomous dispersal, greatly complicate the prediction of spread and impact of introduced species.}, }
@article {pmid11087030, year = {2000}, author = {Lugo, AE}, title = {Effects and outcomes of Caribbean hurricanes in a climate change scenario.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {262}, number = {3}, pages = {243-251}, doi = {10.1016/s0048-9697(00)00526-x}, pmid = {11087030}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Caribbean Region ; *Climate ; *Disasters ; Ecosystem ; Trees ; }, abstract = {Hurricanes are complex disturbance systems with significant effects on vegetation and built-up land. This paper summarizes research on the effects and outcomes of hurricanes on Caribbean forests. Twelve effects and outcome topics are presented: sudden and massive tree mortality; delayed patterns of tree mortality; alternative methods of forest regeneration; opportunities for a change in successional direction; high species turnover and opportunities for species change in forests; diversity of age classes; faster biomass and nutrient turnover; species substitutions and changes in turnover time of biomass and nutrients; lower aboveground biomass in mature vegetation; carbon sinks; selective pressure on organisms; and convergence of community structure and organization. Effects of hurricanes on urban systems are also discussed. While there is scientific uncertainty as to whether hurricane frequencies and intensity will change as a result of global climate change, available understanding on the effects and outcomes of hurricanes can be used to anticipate possible effects of either increasing or decreasing hurricane frequency and intensity. Proposed mitigation actions and research priorities can be effective and desirable even if the frequency and intensity of hurricanes remains unchanged.}, }
@article {pmid11087028, year = {2000}, author = {Flannigan, MD and Stocks, BJ and Wotton, BM}, title = {Climate change and forest fires.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {262}, number = {3}, pages = {221-229}, doi = {10.1016/s0048-9697(00)00524-6}, pmid = {11087028}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate ; *Fires ; Models, Theoretical ; North America ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {This paper addresses the impacts of climate change on forest fires and describes how this, in turn, will impact on the forests of the United States. In addition to reviewing existing studies on climate change and forest fires we have used two transient general circulation models (GCMs), namely the Hadley Centre and the Canadian GCMs, to estimate fire season severity in the middle of the next century. Ratios of 2 x CO2 seasonal severity rating (SSR) over present day SSR were calculated for the means and maximums for North America. The results suggest that the SSR will increase by 10-50% over most of North America; although, there are regions of little change or where the SSR may decrease by the middle of the next century. Increased SSRs should translate into increased forest fire activity. Thus, forest fires could be viewed as an agent of change for US forests as the fire regime will respond rapidly to climate warming. This change in the fire regime has the potential to overshadow the direct effects of climate change on species distribution and migration.}, }
@article {pmid11087027, year = {2000}, author = {Hanson, PJ and Weltzin, JF}, title = {Drought disturbance from climate change: response of United States forests.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {262}, number = {3}, pages = {205-220}, doi = {10.1016/s0048-9697(00)00523-4}, pmid = {11087027}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate ; *Disasters ; Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; *Rain ; Research ; *Trees ; United States ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {Predicted changes in climate have raised concerns about potential impacts on terrestrial forest ecosystem productivity, biogeochemical cycling, and the availability of water resources. This review summarizes characteristics of drought typical to the major forest regions of the United States, future drought projections, and important features of plant and forest community response to drought. Research needs and strategies for coping with future drought are also discussed. Notwithstanding uncertainties surrounding the magnitude and direction of future climate change, and the net impact on soil water availability to forests, a number of conclusions can be made regarding the sensitivity of forests to future drought. The primary response will be a reduction in net primary production and stand water use, which are driven by reductions in stomatal conductance. Mortality of small stature plants (i.e. seedlings and saplings) is a likely consequence of severe drought. In comparison, deep rooting and substantial reserves of carbohydrates and nutrients make mature trees less susceptible to water limitations caused by severe or prolonged drought. However, severe or prolonged drought may render even mature trees more susceptible to insects or disease. Drought-induced reductions in decomposition rates may cause a buildup of organic material on the forest floor, with ramifications for fire regimes and nutrient cycling. Although early model predictions of climate change impacts suggested extensive forest dieback and species migration, more recent analyses suggest that catastrophic dieback will be a local phenomenon, and changes in forest composition will be a relatively gradual process. Better climate predictions at regional scales, with a higher temporal resolution (months to days), coupled with carefully designed, field-based experiments that incorporate multiple driving variables (e.g. temperature and CO2), will advance our ability to predict the response of different forest regions to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid11087026, year = {2000}, author = {Dale, VH and Joyce, LA and McNulty, S and Neilson, RP}, title = {The interplay between climate change, forests, and disturbances.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {262}, number = {3}, pages = {201-204}, doi = {10.1016/s0048-9697(00)00522-2}, pmid = {11087026}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {Animals ; Animals, Wild ; *Climate ; *Disasters ; Ecosystem ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {Climate change affects forests both directly and indirectly through disturbances. Disturbances are a natural and integral part of forest ecosystems, and climate change can alter these natural interactions. When disturbances exceed their natural range of variation, the change in forest structure and function may be extreme. Each disturbance affects forests differently. Some disturbances have tight interactions with the species and forest communities which can be disrupted by climate change. Impacts of disturbances and thus of climate change are seen over a board spectrum of spatial and temporal scales. Future observations, research, and tool development are needed to further understand the interactions between climate change and forest disturbances.}, }
@article {pmid11077477, year = {2000}, author = {Johannessen, OM and Miles, MW}, title = {Arctic sea ice and climate change--will the ice disappear in this century?.}, journal = {Science progress}, volume = {83 (Pt 3)}, number = {}, pages = {209-222}, pmid = {11077477}, issn = {0036-8504}, mesh = {Animals ; Arctic Regions ; *Climate ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Ice ; Oceans and Seas ; }, abstract = {A consensus among climate change prediction scenarios using coupled ocean-climate general circulation models (GCMs) is enhanced warming in the Arctic. This suggests that changes in the Arctic sea ice cover may provide early indications of global warming. Observational evidence of substantial changes in the ice cover has been found recently using data from satellites and submarines. Satellite-borne microwave sensor data analyses have established a 3% per decade decrease in the spatial extent of the Arctic ice cover in the past 20 years. Moreover, a 7% per decade decrease in thicker, multi-year (perennial) ice pack has been revealed. This apparent transformation is corroborated by independent data that indicate substantial decreases in the average ice thickness from 3.1 to 1.8 m from the 1950s/1970s to the mid 1990s, averaging about 4 cm per year. It remains uncertain whether these observed changes are manifestations of global warming or are the result of anomalous atmospheric circulation--or both. However, if the recent trends continue, the Arctic sea ice cover could disappear this century, at least in summer, with important consequences for the regional and global ocean-climate system. This article synthesizes recent variability and trends in Arctic sea ice in the perspective of global climate change, and discusses their potential ramifications.}, }
@article {pmid11072920, year = {2000}, author = {Cullen, E}, title = {Possible adverse health effects of global warming.}, journal = {Irish medical journal}, volume = {93}, number = {5}, pages = {132-134}, pmid = {11072920}, issn = {0332-3102}, mesh = {Climate ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disasters ; Environmental Health ; *Environmental Medicine ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Transportation ; }, }
@article {pmid11069175, year = {2000}, author = {Urban, FE and Cole, JE and Overpeck, JT}, title = {Influence of mean climate change on climate variability from a 155-year tropical Pacific coral record.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {407}, number = {6807}, pages = {989-993}, doi = {10.1038/35039597}, pmid = {11069175}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Cnidaria ; Ecosystem ; Oxygen Isotopes/analysis ; Pacific Ocean ; Spectrum Analysis ; }, abstract = {Today, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system is the primary driver of interannual variability in global climate, but its long-term behaviour is poorly understood. Instrumental observations reveal a shift in 1976 towards warmer and wetter conditions in the tropical Pacific, with widespread climatic and ecological consequences. This shift, unique over the past century, has prompted debate over the influence of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on ENSO variability. Here we present a 155-year ENSO reconstruction from a central tropical Pacific coral that provides new evidence for long-term changes in the regional mean climate and its variability. A gradual transition in the early twentieth century and the abrupt change in 1976, both towards warmer and wetter conditions, co-occur with changes in variability. In the mid-late nineteenth century, cooler and drier background conditions coincided with prominent decadal variability; in the early twentieth century, shorter-period (approximately 2.9 years) variability intensified. After 1920, variability weakens and becomes focused at interannual timescales; with the shift in 1976, variability with a period of about 4 years becomes prominent. Our results suggest that variability in the tropical Pacific is linked to the region's mean climate, and that changes in both have occurred during periods of natural as well as anthropogenic climate forcing.}, }
@article {pmid11069148, year = {2000}, author = {Pockley, P}, title = {Global warming identified as main threat to coral reefs.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {407}, number = {6807}, pages = {932}, doi = {10.1038/35039690}, pmid = {11069148}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Animals ; *Cnidaria ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid11050345, year = {2000}, author = {Díaz, S}, title = {Old British grasslands might die hard in the face of climate change.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {447}, doi = {10.1016/s0169-5347(00)01988-1}, pmid = {11050345}, issn = {1872-8383}, }
@article {pmid11050181, year = {2000}, author = {Perry, CA and Hsu, KJ}, title = {Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {97}, number = {23}, pages = {12433-12438}, pmid = {11050181}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2(N) (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called "little ice ages," similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280-1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1, 000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.}, }
@article {pmid11038570, year = {1997}, author = {Brown, JH and Valone, TJ and Curtin, CG}, title = {Reorganization of an arid ecosystem in response to recent climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {94}, number = {18}, pages = {9729-9733}, pmid = {11038570}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {Natural ecosystems contain many individuals and species interacting with each other and with their abiotic environment. Such systems can be expected to exhibit complex dynamics in which small perturbations can be amplified to cause large changes. Here, we document the reorganization of an arid ecosystem that has occurred since the late 1970s. The density of woody shrubs increased 3-fold. Several previously common animal species went locally extinct, while other previously rare species increased. While these changes are symptomatic of desertification, they were not caused by livestock grazing or drought, the principal causes of historical desertification. The changes apparently were caused by a shift in regional climate: since 1977 winter precipitation throughout the region was substantially higher than average for this century. These changes illustrate the kinds of large, unexpected responses of complex natural ecosystems that can occur in response to both natural perturbations and human activities.}, }
@article {pmid11034207, year = {2000}, author = {Allen, MR and Stott, PA and Mitchell, JF and Schnur, R and Delworth, TL}, title = {Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {407}, number = {6804}, pages = {617-620}, doi = {10.1038/35036559}, pmid = {11034207}, issn = {1476-4687}, abstract = {Forecasts of climate change are inevitably uncertain. It is therefore essential to quantify the risk of significant departures from the predicted response to a given emission scenario. Previous analyses of this risk have been based either on expert opinion, perturbation analysis of simplified climate models or the comparison of predictions from general circulation models. Recent observed changes that appear to be attributable to human influence provide a powerful constraint on the uncertainties in multi-decadal forecasts. Here we assess the range of warming rates over the coming 50 years that are consistent with the observed near-surface temperature record as well as with the overall patterns of response predicted by several general circulation models. We expect global mean temperatures in the decade 2036-46 to be 1-2.5 K warmer than in pre-industrial times under a 'business as usual' emission scenario. This range is relatively robust to errors in the models' climate sensitivity, rate of oceanic heat uptake or global response to sulphate aerosols as long as these errors are persistent over time. Substantial changes in the current balance of greenhouse warming and sulphate aerosol cooling would, however, increase the uncertainty. Unlike 50-year warming rates, the final equilibrium warming after the atmospheric composition stabilizes remains very uncertain, despite the evidence provided by the emerging signal.}, }
@article {pmid11034189, year = {2000}, author = {Weaver, AJ and Zwiers, FW}, title = {Uncertainty in climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {407}, number = {6804}, pages = {571-572}, doi = {10.1038/35036659}, pmid = {11034189}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid11032555, year = {2000}, author = {Schulze, DE and Wirth, C and Heimann, M}, title = {Climate change. Managing forests after Kyoto.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {289}, number = {5487}, pages = {2058-2059}, doi = {10.1126/science.289.5487.2058}, pmid = {11032555}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {*Carbon ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; *Trees ; }, abstract = {The Kyoto protocol aims to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Part of the strategy is the active management of terrestrial carbon sinks, principally through afforestation and reforestation. In their Perspective, Schulze et al. argue that the preservation of old-growth forests may have a larger positive effect on the carbon cycle than promotion of regrowth.}, }
@article {pmid11032552, year = {2000}, author = {Kaiser, J}, title = {Ecological Society of America meeting. Global warming, insects take the stage at Snowbird.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {289}, number = {5487}, pages = {2031-2032}, doi = {10.1126/science.289.5487.2031}, pmid = {11032552}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Alaska ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; *Disasters ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Moths/*physiology ; *Photosynthesis ; Plant Leaves/metabolism ; Tannins/metabolism/pharmacology ; Trees/*metabolism ; }, abstract = {Despite the turmoil of not-so-distant forest fires and United Airlines troubles that threw off travel schedules, some 2600 ecologists made their way to this sun-soaked canyon last month for the Ecological Society of America's 85th annual meeting. Topics ranged from ancient droughts to photosynthesis beneath snow and how trees resist insects.}, }
@article {pmid11022589, year = {2000}, author = {Haines, A and McMichael, AJ and Epstein, PR}, title = {Environment and health: 2. Global climate change and health.}, journal = {CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne}, volume = {163}, number = {6}, pages = {729-734}, pmid = {11022589}, issn = {0820-3946}, mesh = {Agriculture ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology/etiology ; *Environmental Health ; Forecasting ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Industry ; Meteorological Concepts ; Models, Statistical ; Risk Factors ; Temperature ; Vehicle Emissions/adverse effects ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid11019462, year = {2000}, author = {Githeko, AK and Lindsay, SW and Confalonieri, UE and Patz, JA}, title = {Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {78}, number = {9}, pages = {1136-1147}, pmid = {11019462}, issn = {0042-9686}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; *Climate ; Disease Outbreaks/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Disease Transmission, Infectious/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; *Disease Vectors ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; North America/epidemiology ; South America/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order to determine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0-3.5 degrees C, increasing the likelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseases these lie in the range 14-18 degrees C at the lower end and about 35-40 degrees C at the upper end. Malaria and dengue fever are among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Health risks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that do not. Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of the population in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climatic anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia and South America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It is therefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival.}, }
@article {pmid11001735, year = {2000}, author = {Dye, C and Reiter, P}, title = {Climate change and malaria: temperatures without fevers?.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {289}, number = {5485}, pages = {1697-1698}, pmid = {11001735}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles/parasitology/physiology ; *Climate ; *Forecasting ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Humidity ; Insect Vectors/parasitology/physiology ; Malaria, Falciparum/*epidemiology/*transmission ; Models, Biological ; *Models, Statistical ; Multivariate Analysis ; Plasmodium falciparum/physiology ; Rain ; Regression Analysis ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {As the world gets warmer, the predictions about the spread of vector-based diseases such as malaria get gloomier. However, in their timely Perspective, Dye and Reiter explain the implications of a new climate model (Randolph and Rogers), which predicts that the distribution of malaria is unlikely to change dramatically in the next 50 years even if the world does get hotter.}, }
@article {pmid11001029, year = {2000}, author = {Spurgeon, D}, title = {Global warming threatens extinction for many species.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {407}, number = {6801}, pages = {121}, doi = {10.1038/35025266}, pmid = {11001029}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Animals ; *Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Plants ; }, }
@article {pmid10993560, year = {2000}, author = {Kramer, K and Leinonen, I and Loustau, D}, title = {The importance of phenology for the evaluation of impact of climate change on growth of boreal, temperate and Mediterranean forests ecosystems: an overview.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {44}, number = {2}, pages = {67-75}, doi = {10.1007/s004840000066}, pmid = {10993560}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Models, Theoretical ; Photosynthesis ; Seasons ; *Trees ; Water Supply ; }, abstract = {An overview is presented of the phenological models relevant for boreal coniferous, temperate-zone deciduous and Mediterranean coniferous forest ecosystems. The phenology of the boreal forests is mainly driven by temperature, affecting the timing of the start of the growing season and thereby its duration, and the level of frost hardiness and thereby the reduction of foliage area and photosynthetic capacity by severe frost events. The phenology of temperate-zone forests is also mainly driven by temperature. Since temperate-zone forests are mostly mixed-species deciduous forests, differences in phenological response may affect competition between tree species. The phenology of Mediterranean coniferous forests is mainly driven by water availability, affecting the development of leaf area, rather than the timing of phenological events. These phenological models were subsequently coupled to the process-based forest model FORGRO to evaluate the effect of different climate change scenarios on growth. The results indicate that the phenology of each of the forest types significantly affects the growth response to a given climate change scenario. The absolute responses presented in this study should, however, be used with caution as there are still uncertainties in the phenological models, the growth models, the parameter values obtained and the climate change scenarios used. Future research should attempt to reduce these uncertainties. It is recommended that phenological models that describe the mechanisms by which seasonality in climatic drivers affects the phenological aspects of trees should be developed and carefully tested. Only by using such models may we make an assessment of the impact of climate change on the functioning and productivity of different forest ecosystems.}, }
@article {pmid10993045, year = {2000}, author = {Smaglik, P}, title = {Climate change expert stirs new controversy.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {407}, number = {6800}, pages = {7}, doi = {10.1038/35024244}, pmid = {10993045}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid10985802, year = {2000}, author = {Wittmann, EJ and Baylis, M}, title = {Climate change: effects on culicoides--transmitted viruses and implications for the UK.}, journal = {Veterinary journal (London, England : 1997)}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {107-117}, doi = {10.1053/tvjl.2000.0470}, pmid = {10985802}, issn = {1090-0233}, mesh = {African Horse Sickness/*transmission ; Animals ; Bluetongue/*transmission ; *Ceratopogonidae ; Climate ; Disease Outbreaks/*veterinary ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Horses ; Humans ; Insect Vectors ; Population Dynamics ; Sheep ; United Kingdom/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Changes in the distribution and abundance of insects are likely to be amongst the most important and immediate effects of climate change. We review here the risk that climate change poses to the UK's livestock industry via effects on Culicoides biting midges, the vectors of several arboviruses, including those that cause bluetongue (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS). The major old-world vector of BT and AHS viruses, C. imicola, occurs in southern Europe and will spread further north as global temperatures increase. It is unlikely, however, that in the foreseeable future it will reach and become established in the UK. As the distribution of C. imicola moves north, however, it may bring BT and AHS viruses into the range of other Culicoides species that are known to be competent vectors and which occur much further north. Once infected via this 'baton effect', these species may be able to spread the viruses over much of Europe, including the UK. Climate change may increase their vector competence further and will also increase the likelihood of viruses surviving from one year to the next. An additional risk is that the predicted increase in the frequency of short periods of hot temperatures may lead to the creation of novel vector species, by removing the barriers that in colder conditions make them refractory to viral infection.}, }
@article {pmid10985800, year = {2000}, author = {Jonsson, NN and Reid, SW}, title = {Global climate change and vector borne diseases.}, journal = {Veterinary journal (London, England : 1997)}, volume = {160}, number = {2}, pages = {87-89}, doi = {10.1053/tvjl.2000.0501}, pmid = {10985800}, issn = {1090-0233}, mesh = {Animals ; *Arthropod Vectors ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; }, }
@article {pmid10984528, year = {2000}, author = {Cicerone, RJ}, title = {Human forcing of climate change: easing up on the gas pedal.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {97}, number = {19}, pages = {10304-10306}, pmid = {10984528}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; *Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Ozone ; Sunlight ; }, }
@article {pmid10949263, year = {2000}, author = {Smaglik, P}, title = {United States backs soil strategy in fight against global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {406}, number = {6796}, pages = {549-550}, doi = {10.1038/35020711}, pmid = {10949263}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid10944197, year = {2000}, author = {Hansen, J and Sato, M and Ruedy, R and Lacis, A and Oinas, V}, title = {Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {97}, number = {18}, pages = {9875-9880}, pmid = {10944197}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Aerosols ; Carbon Dioxide ; Chlorofluorocarbons ; *Climate ; Forecasting ; Fossil Fuels ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Methane ; Models, Theoretical ; }, abstract = {A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO(2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH(4), and N(2)O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO(2) and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO(2) GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH(4) and O(3) precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO(2) GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO(2) emissions, this reduction of non-CO(2) GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.}, }
@article {pmid10935624, year = {2000}, author = {Stevenson, IR and Bryant, DM}, title = {Climate change and constraints on breeding.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {406}, number = {6794}, pages = {366-367}, doi = {10.1038/35019151}, pmid = {10935624}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Animals ; Birds/metabolism/*physiology ; *Breeding ; *Cold Climate ; Eggs ; Energy Metabolism ; Reproduction ; }, }
@article {pmid10935601, year = {2000}, author = {Macilwain, C}, title = {Emissions targets 'unrealistic' says US climate change body.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {406}, number = {6794}, pages = {333-334}, doi = {10.1038/35019194}, pmid = {10935601}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid10926535, year = {2000}, author = {Grime, JP and Brown, VK and Thompson, K and Masters, GJ and Hillier, SH and Clarke, IP and Askew, AP and Corker, D and Kielty, JP}, title = {The response of two contrasting limestone grasslands to simulated climate change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {289}, number = {5480}, pages = {762-765}, doi = {10.1126/science.289.5480.762}, pmid = {10926535}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {*Biomass ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; *Plant Development ; Poaceae/*growth &amp; development ; Rain ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {Two different UK limestone grasslands were exposed to simulated climate change with the use of nonintrusive techniques to manipulate local climate over 5 years. Resistance to climate change, defined as the ability of a community to maintain its composition and biomass in response to environmental stress, could be explained by reference to the functional composition and successional status of the grasslands. The more fertile, early-successional grassland was much more responsive to climate change. Resistance could not be explained by the particular climates experienced by the two grasslands. Productive, disturbed landscapes created by modern human activity may prove more vulnerable to climate change than older, traditional landscapes.}, }
@article {pmid10920442, year = {2000}, author = {Yang, HM and Ferreira, MU}, title = {Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission.}, journal = {Revista de saude publica}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {214-222}, doi = {10.1590/s0034-89102000000300002}, pmid = {10920442}, issn = {0034-8910}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles/growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Insect Vectors/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Malaria/epidemiology/*transmission ; *Models, Biological ; Socioeconomic Factors ; }, abstract = {OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission.<br><br>METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria.<br><br>RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.}, }
@article {pmid10914399, year = {2000}, author = {Epstein, PR}, title = {Is global warming harmful to health?.}, journal = {Scientific American}, volume = {283}, number = {2}, pages = {50-57}, doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0800-50}, pmid = {10914399}, issn = {0036-8733}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Animals ; Culicidae/growth &amp; development ; Disasters ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Hypersensitivity/epidemiology ; Infections/epidemiology ; Malaria/transmission ; Risk Factors ; Water Pollution ; Weather ; West Nile Fever/epidemiology/transmission ; West Nile virus ; }, }
@article {pmid10905992, year = {2000}, author = {Reiter, P}, title = {Malaria and global warming in perspective?.}, journal = {Emerging infectious diseases}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {438-439}, doi = {10.3201/eid0604.000431}, pmid = {10905992}, issn = {1080-6040}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid10898385, year = {2000}, author = {Uri, ND}, title = {Conservation practices in US agriculture and their implication for global climate change.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {256}, number = {1}, pages = {23-38}, doi = {10.1016/s0048-9697(00)00462-9}, pmid = {10898385}, issn = {0048-9697}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Carbon/metabolism ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Policy ; United States ; }, abstract = {Increase in the use of conservation practices by agriculture in the United States will enhance soil organic carbon and potentially increase carbon sequestration. This, in turn, will decrease the net emission of carbon dioxide. A number of studies exist that calibrate the contribution of various individual, site-specific conservation practices on changes in soil organic carbon. There is a general absence, however, of a comprehensive effort to measure objectively the contribution of these practices including conservation tillage, the Conservation Reserve Program and conservation buffer strips to an change in soil organic carbon. This paper fills that void. After recounting the evolution of the use of the various conservation practices, it is estimated that organic carbon in the soil in 1998 in the United States attributable to these practices was approximately 12,200,000 metric tons. By 2008, there will be an increase of approximately 25%. Given that there is a significant potential for conservation practices to lead to an increase in carbon sequestration, there are a number of policy options that can be pursued. These include education and technical assistance, financial assistance, research and development, land retirement and regulation and taxes.}, }
@article {pmid10894773, year = {2000}, author = {Vörösmarty, CJ and Green, P and Salisbury, J and Lammers, RB}, title = {Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {289}, number = {5477}, pages = {284-288}, doi = {10.1126/science.289.5477.284}, pmid = {10894773}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Fresh Water ; Global Health ; Humans ; *Population Growth ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Water Supply ; }, abstract = {The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.}, }
@article {pmid10894770, year = {2000}, author = {Crowley, TJ}, title = {Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {289}, number = {5477}, pages = {270-277}, doi = {10.1126/science.289.5477.270}, pmid = {10894770}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Recent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and climate forcing over the past 1000 years allow the warming of the 20th century to be placed within a historical context and various mechanisms of climate change to be tested. Comparisons of observations with simulations from an energy balance climate model indicate that as much as 41 to 64% of preanthropogenic (pre-1850) decadal-scale temperature variations was due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Removal of the forced response from reconstructed temperature time series yields residuals that show similar variability to those of control runs of coupled models, thereby lending support to the models' value as estimates of low-frequency variability in the climate system. Removal of all forcing except greenhouse gases from the approximately 1000-year time series results in a residual with a very large late-20th-century warming that closely agrees with the response predicted from greenhouse gas forcing. The combination of a unique level of temperature increase in the late 20th century and improved constraints on the role of natural variability provides further evidence that the greenhouse effect has already established itself above the level of natural variability in the climate system. A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial.}, }
@article {pmid10894518, year = {2000}, author = {Robinson, JB and Cohen, SJ}, title = {Climate-change analysis has been changing too.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {406}, number = {6791}, pages = {13}, doi = {10.1038/35017742}, pmid = {10894518}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {*Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid10868078, year = {2000}, author = {Bargagli, R}, title = {Trace metals in Antarctica related to climate change and increasing human impact.}, journal = {Reviews of environmental contamination and toxicology}, volume = {166}, number = {}, pages = {129-173}, pmid = {10868078}, issn = {0179-5953}, mesh = {Animals ; Antarctic Regions ; *Climate ; Environmental Pollutants/*analysis ; Humans ; Metals/*analysis ; Trace Elements/*analysis ; }, abstract = {Metals are natural constituents of the abiotic and biotic components of all ecosystems, and under natural conditions they are cycled within and between the geochemical spheres--the atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere--at quite steady fluxes. In the second half of the twentieth century, the huge increase in energy and mineral consumption determined anthropogenic emissions of several metals exceeding those from natural sources, e.g., volcanoes and windborne soil particles. In the Northern Hemisphere, the biogeochemical cycles of Pb, Cd, Zn, Cu, and other metals were significantly altered, even in Arctic regions. On the contrary, available data on trace metal concentrations in abiotic matrices from continental Antarctica, summarized in this review, suggest that the biogeochemical cycle of Pb is probably the only one that has been significantly altered by anthropogenic emissions in Antarctica and elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere, especially in the period 1950-1975. Environmental contamination by other metals from anthropogenic sources in Antarctica itself can generally only be detected in snow samples taken within a range of a few kilometers or several hundred meters from scientific stations. Local metal pollution from human activities in Antarctica may compromise studies aimed at assessing the biogeochemical cycle of trace elements and the effects of global climate change. Thus, this review focuses on concentrations of metals in atmospheric particulate, snow, surface soils, and freshwater from the Antarctic continent and surface sediments and seawater from the Southern Ocean, which can plausibly be regarded as global background values of trace elements. These baselines are also necessary in view of the construction of new stations, the expansion of existing facilities to support research, and the growth of tourism and fisheries. Despite difficulties in making comparisons with data from other remote areas of the world, concentrations of trace metals in most samples of atmospheric particulates, snow, ice, soils, and marine sediments from Antarctica can be taken as global background levels. Comparison between the results of trace element surveys in marine waters of the Southern Ocean and in other seas is practically impossible. The upwelling or subduction of water masses, the seasonality in ice cover and in phytoplankton biomass, the low fallout of atmospheric dust, and many other peculiar characteristics of the Southern Ocean make concentrations of trace metals in surface waters quite variable in space and time. The depletion of nutrients in surface waters, which is a regular feature of many marine environments, rarely occurs in the Southern Ocean. Waters in some regions are characterized by very low concentrations of Fe and Mn, whereas in others the content of Cd is relatively high at the beginning of summer and may decrease about one order of magnitude during the phytoplankton bloom. Although in most Antarctic coastal ecosystems the input of metals from geochemical and anthropogenic sources and from long-range transport is negligible, concentrations of Cd in the waters and biota may be higher than in waters and related species of organisms from polluted coastal areas. Like the Southern Ocean, Antarctic lakes have many peculiar characteristics. They are often perennially ice covered and without outlet, and their water, which is gained only from short-term melting of snow and glaciers in summer, is lost mainly by sublimation of surface ice. Several lakes are distinctly stratified: the water under the ice may be cool, rich in oxygen, and among the cleanest and clearest of natural waters, whereas water near the bottom becomes anoxic, tepid, and richer in major and trace elements. Considering the specificity of Antarctic environments, to evaluate the extent and consequences of global changes and increasing human activities in Antarctica itself, research on the biogeochemistry of trace metals and monitoring programs}, }
@article {pmid10864302, year = {2000}, author = {von Storch, H and Stehr, N}, title = {Climate change in perspective.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {405}, number = {6787}, pages = {615}, doi = {10.1038/35015179}, pmid = {10864302}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {*Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, Medieval ; }, }
@article {pmid10847183, year = {2000}, author = {Limbrick, KJ and Whitehead, PG and Butterfield, D and Reynard, N}, title = {Assessing the potential impacts of various climate change scenarios on the hydrological regime of the River Kennet at Theale, Berkshire, south-central England, UK: an application and evaluation of the new semi-distributed model, INCA.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {251-252}, number = {}, pages = {539-555}, doi = {10.1016/s0048-9697(00)00394-6}, pmid = {10847183}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {A new semi-distributed integrated nitrogen in catchments (INCA) model was used to attempt to assess the potential impacts of several recent Hadley Centre climate change scenarios on the hydrological flow regime of the entire River Kennet catchment to Theale, south-central England, UK. The climatically and hydrologically anomalous period 1985-1995 was used for baseline data in an attempt to: (1) represent any possible future climatic or hydrological variability not available from scenario use alone; and (2) attain maximum possible model calibration validity under future climates by simulating extremes of within-year hydrological variability. Substantial reductions in total annual runoff occurred, with an average reduction of 18.97%. Summer and late autumn soil moisture deficits (SMDs) increased in intensity, and were also found to persist for longer periods into autumn and (occasionally) winter. A generally enhanced hydrological regime of the River Kennet was simulated, with increased seasonality overall. A greater percentage of flow was observed to occur in spring and (occasionally) winter. Month-to-month variability of flow was discovered to be greater than annual changes. An average reduction in minimum annual flows of 46.03% occurred. Implications for catchment ecology and water resource requirements are briefly discussed. An evaluation of the new INCA model's performance as a tool for climate change impacts assessment is made.}, }
@article {pmid10844807, year = {2000}, author = {Arya, SC}, title = {Global warming and performance of therapeutic interventions in clinical neurology.}, journal = {Journal of clinical neuroscience : official journal of the Neurosurgical Society of Australasia}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {157}, doi = {10.1054/jocn.1999.0174}, pmid = {10844807}, issn = {0967-5868}, mesh = {*Drug Stability ; Drug Storage/methods ; Drug Therapy ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Nervous System Diseases/prevention &amp; control ; Neurology ; *Temperature ; *Treatment Outcome ; }, }
@article {pmid10841706, year = {2000}, author = {Kaiser, J}, title = {Climate change. Panel estimates possible carbon 'sinks'.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {288}, number = {5468}, pages = {942-943}, doi = {10.1126/science.288.5468.942}, pmid = {10841706}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Air Pollutants ; *Carbon ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Fossil Fuels ; *Trees ; }, }
@article {pmid10841705, year = {2000}, author = {Normile, D}, title = {Global warming. Some coral bouncing back from El Niño.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {288}, number = {5468}, pages = {941-942}, doi = {10.1126/science.288.5468.941a}, pmid = {10841705}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Cnidaria/*growth &amp; development/physiology ; *Ecosystem ; Eukaryota/physiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Indian Ocean ; Pacific Ocean ; Symbiosis ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid10839507, year = {2000}, author = {Macilwain, C}, title = {Congress wakes up to climate change.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {405}, number = {6785}, pages = {385}, doi = {10.1038/35013224}, pmid = {10839507}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid10827124, year = {2000}, author = {Martens, P}, title = {Malaria and global warming in perspective?.}, journal = {Emerging infectious diseases}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {313-314}, doi = {10.3201/eid0603.000315}, pmid = {10827124}, issn = {1080-6040}, mesh = {Europe/epidemiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology/*transmission ; Risk Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid10798987, year = {2000}, author = {Kerr, RA}, title = {Global warming. Draft report affirms human influence.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {288}, number = {5466}, pages = {589-590}, doi = {10.1126/science.288.5466.589a}, pmid = {10798987}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid10786008, year = {2000}, author = {Johnston, T and Chiotti, Q}, title = {Climate change and the adaptability of agriculture: a review.}, journal = {Journal of the Air &amp; Waste Management Association (1995)}, volume = {50}, number = {4}, pages = {563-569}, doi = {10.1080/10473289.2000.10464028}, pmid = {10786008}, issn = {1096-2247}, mesh = {Agriculture/*trends ; *Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Decision Making ; Environmental Pollutants ; Humans ; Public Policy ; }, abstract = {The assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture has emerged as a recognizable field of research over the past 15 years or so. In a relatively short period, this area of work has undergone a number of important conceptual and methodological developments. Among many questions that have been debated are the adaptability of agriculture to climate change and the importance of land management adjustments in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. In turn, this latter focus has spawned a discussion regarding the nature of adaptation and the ability of agriculture to respond to sudden and rapid climatic changes. In this paper we present an overview of this debate. It is argued that the first generation of climate change impact studies generally ignored the possibility that agriculturalists may adjust their farming practices in order to cope with climate change or to take advantage of new production opportunities. This conceptual oversight has been largely eliminated over the past five years or so. However, questions remain surrounding the likelihood that various adaptive strategies will actually be deployed in particular places. In this paper, we stress the importance of studying adaptation in the context of decision-making at the individual farm level and beyond.}, }
@article {pmid10782076, year = {2000}, author = {Taverne, J}, title = {Albumax and global warming on the Web.}, journal = {Parasitology today (Personal ed.)}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {190}, doi = {10.1016/s0169-4758(00)01662-8}, pmid = {10782076}, issn = {0169-4758}, }
@article {pmid10766201, year = {2000}, author = {Aldhous, P}, title = {Global warming could be bad news for Arctic ozone layer.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {404}, number = {6778}, pages = {531}, doi = {10.1038/35007212}, pmid = {10766201}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid10761913, year = {2000}, author = {Pienitz, R and Vincent, WF}, title = {Effect of climate change relative to ozone depletion on UV exposure in subarctic lakes.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {404}, number = {6777}, pages = {484-487}, doi = {10.1038/35006616}, pmid = {10761913}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Arctic Regions ; *Climate ; Diatoms/*radiation effects ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Fossils ; Fresh Water ; Geologic Sediments ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Ozone ; Photosynthesis ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, abstract = {The effect of stratospheric ozone depletion on increases in ambient levels of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation in high-latitude regions' has raised concerns about the response of northern ecosystems to environmental change. The concentration of coloured dissolved organic material, which is derived from terrestrial vegetation and acts as a screen for ultraviolet radiation, is low in high-latitude lakes. The underwater light environment in these lakes is therefore likely to be sensitive to small variations in the supply of this material, in addition to the effects of ozone depletion. Here we use fossil diatom assemblages in combination with bio-optical models to estimate the magnitude of past variations in the underwater light regime of a lake at the boreal tree line. We find large shifts in underwater UV-B, UV-A and photosynthetically available radiation associated with changes in the input of coloured dissolved organic material into subarctic lakes during the Holocene. The inferred changes in biological exposure to UV radiation were at least two orders of magnitude greater than those associated with moderate (30%) ozone depletion. Our findings indicate that freshwater ecosystems at present located across vegetation gradients will experience significant shifts in underwater spectral irradiance through the effects of climate change on catchment vegetation and the export of coloured dissolved organic material.}, }
@article {pmid10761472, year = {2000}, author = {Wiedemann, GJ}, title = {[Whole-body hyperthermia: global warming in tumor therapy?].}, journal = {Deutsche medizinische Wochenschrift (1946)}, volume = {125}, number = {11}, pages = {316}, pmid = {10761472}, issn = {0012-0472}, mesh = {Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use ; Clinical Trials, Phase I as Topic ; Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic ; Combined Modality Therapy ; Humans ; Hyperthermia, Induced/*methods ; Neoplasms/*therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid10731143, year = {2000}, author = {Delworth, TL and Knutson, TR}, title = {Simulation of early 20th century global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {287}, number = {5461}, pages = {2246-2250}, doi = {10.1126/science.287.5461.2246}, pmid = {10731143}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {The observed global warming of the past century occurred primarily in two distinct 20-year periods, from 1925 to 1944 and from 1978 to the present. Although the latter warming is often attributed to a human-induced increase of greenhouse gases, causes of the earlier warming are less clear because this period precedes the time of strongest increases in human-induced greenhouse gas (radiative) forcing. Results from a set of six integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model suggest that the warming of the early 20th century could have resulted from a combination of human-induced radiative forcing and an unusually large realization of internal multidecadal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. This conclusion is dependent on the model's climate sensitivity, internal variability, and the specification of the time-varying human-induced radiative forcing.}, }
@article {pmid10725399, year = {2000}, author = {Keeling, CD and Whorf, TP}, title = {The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: a possible cause of rapid climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {97}, number = {8}, pages = {3814-3819}, pmid = {10725399}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {Variations in solar irradiance are widely believed to explain climatic change on 20,000- to 100,000-year time-scales in accordance with the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, but there is no conclusive evidence that variable irradiance can be the cause of abrupt fluctuations in climate on time-scales as short as 1,000 years. We propose that such abrupt millennial changes, seen in ice and sedimentary core records, were produced in part by well characterized, almost periodic variations in the strength of the global oceanic tide-raising forces caused by resonances in the periodic motions of the earth and moon. A well defined 1,800-year tidal cycle is associated with gradually shifting lunar declination from one episode of maximum tidal forcing on the centennial time-scale to the next. An amplitude modulation of this cycle occurs with an average period of about 5,000 years, associated with gradually shifting separation-intervals between perihelion and syzygy at maxima of the 1,800-year cycle. We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing.}, }
@article {pmid10715229, year = {2000}, author = {Barnard, RC and Morgan, DL}, title = {The National Academy of Sciences offers a new framework for addressing global warming issues.}, journal = {Regulatory toxicology and pharmacology : RTP}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {112-116}, doi = {10.1006/rtph.2000.1374}, pmid = {10715229}, issn = {0273-2300}, mesh = {Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; National Academy of Sciences, U.S. ; Terminology as Topic ; United States ; }, abstract = {The recent landmark report by the National Academy of Sciences reviewed the science on which the Kyoto Protocol was based. NAS concluded that the policy choices and the mandatory reductions in greenhouse gases by the developed nations were based on incomplete science with significant uncertainties. In view of these uncertainties the NAS report developed a comprehensive strategic 10-year research program to address the basic issue of whether human activity that results in environmental changes is responsible for climate changes. The report provides a new framework for consideration of global warming issues. The UN International Panel on Climate Change (the UN science advisor) in its 1997 report to the Kyoto parties pointed out the confusing difference between scientific usage of the term "climate change" that distinguishes human from natural causes of change and the official usage that combines natural and human causes of changes in climate. The conclusion of the UN panel on human causes is equivocal. The 1999 report of the U.S. Global Science Research Committee also reached an equivocal conclusion on human causes and announced a 10-year research program to be developed in consultation with NAS. The precautionary measures provided in the 1992 UN Framework Convention differ from the ill-defined "precautionary principle" based on fear of uncertainty, and are consistent with the objectives of the NAS proposed research program. These developments together with the third report of the UN Intergovernmental Science Panel on developments in climate science due in 2001 merit consideration by the convention of the parties under the Kyoto Protocol.}, }
@article {pmid10677510, year = {2000}, author = {Inouye, DW and Barr, B and Armitage, KB and Inouye, BD}, title = {Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {97}, number = {4}, pages = {1630-1633}, pmid = {10677510}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {*Altitude ; Animals ; *Climate ; Colorado ; Hibernation ; Marmota ; Plants ; Seasons ; Snow ; Songbirds ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species.}, }
@article {pmid10677475, year = {2000}, author = {Hartmann, DL and Wallace, JM and Limpasuvan, V and Thompson, DW and Holton, JR}, title = {Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {97}, number = {4}, pages = {1412-1417}, pmid = {10677475}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {The atmosphere displays modes of variability whose structures exhibit a strong longitudinally symmetric (annular) component that extends from the surface to the stratosphere in middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. In the past 30 years, these modes have exhibited trends that seem larger than their natural background variability, and may be related to human influences on stratospheric ozone and/or atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The pattern of climate trends during the past few decades is marked by rapid cooling and ozone depletion in the polar lower stratosphere of both hemispheres, coupled with an increasing strength of the wintertime westerly polar vortex and a poleward shift of the westerly wind belt at the earth's surface. Annular modes of variability are fundamentally a result of internal dynamical feedbacks within the climate system, and as such can show a large response to rather modest external forcing. The dynamics and thermodynamics of these modes are such that strong synergistic interactions between stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse warming are possible. These interactions may be responsible for the pronounced changes in tropospheric and stratospheric climate observed during the past few decades. If these trends continue, they could have important implications for the climate of the 21st century.}, }
@article {pmid10677474, year = {2000}, author = {Dyurgerov, MB and Meier, MF}, title = {Twentieth century climate change: evidence from small glaciers.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {97}, number = {4}, pages = {1406-1411}, pmid = {10677474}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {The relation between changes in modern glaciers, not including the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, and their climatic environment is investigated to shed light on paleoglacier evidence of past climate change and for projecting the effects of future climate warming on cold regions of the world. Loss of glacier volume has been more or less continuous since the 19th century, but it is not a simple adjustment to the end of an "anomalous" Little Ice Age. We address the 1961-1997 period, which provides the most observational data on volume changes. These data show trends that are highly variable with time as well as within and between regions; trends in the Arctic are consistent with global averages but are quantitatively smaller. The averaged annual volume loss is 147 mm.yr(-1) in water equivalent, totaling 3.7 x 10(3) km(3) over 37 yr. The time series shows a shift during the mid-1970s, followed by more rapid loss of ice volume and further acceleration in the last decade; this is consistent with climatologic data. Perhaps most significant is an increase in annual accumulation along with an increase in melting; these produce a marked increase in the annual turnover or amplitude. The rise in air temperature suggested by the temperature sensitivities of glaciers in cold regions is somewhat greater than the global average temperature rise derived largely from low altitude gauges, and the warming is accelerating.}, }
@article {pmid10677468, year = {2000}, author = {Stocker, TF and Marchal, O}, title = {Abrupt climate change in the computer: is it real?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {97}, number = {4}, pages = {1362-1365}, pmid = {10677468}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {Models suggest that dramatic changes in the ocean circulation are responsible for abrupt climate changes during the last ice age and may possibly alter the relative climate stability of the last 10,000 years.}, }
@article {pmid10677467, year = {2000}, author = {Peteet, D}, title = {Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {97}, number = {4}, pages = {1359-1361}, pmid = {10677467}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {*Climate ; Cold Temperature ; Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature ; Ice ; North America ; *Plant Development ; Pollen ; }, abstract = {Rapid climate change characterizes numerous terrestrial sediment records during and since the last glaciation. Vegetational response is best expressed in terrestrial records near ecotones, where sensitivity to climate change is greatest, and response times are as short as decades.}, }
@article {pmid10677466, year = {2000}, author = {Pierrehumbert, RT}, title = {Climate change and the tropical Pacific: the sleeping dragon wakes.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {97}, number = {4}, pages = {1355-1358}, pmid = {10677466}, issn = {0027-8424}, }
@article {pmid10677464, year = {2000}, author = {Marotzke, J}, title = {Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: mechanisms and predictability.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {97}, number = {4}, pages = {1347-1350}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.97.4.1347}, pmid = {10677464}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood.}, }
@article {pmid10677455, year = {2000}, author = {Stanley, SM}, title = {The past climate change heats up.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {97}, number = {4}, pages = {1319}, pmid = {10677455}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Antarctic Regions ; Arctic Regions ; Cholera/epidemiology ; *Climate ; Disease Outbreaks ; Ecology ; Hibernation ; Humans ; Ice ; Oceans and Seas ; Temperature ; Time ; }, }
@article {pmid10693819, year = {1999}, author = {Dunn, P0 and Winkler, DW}, title = {Climate change has affected the breeding date of tree swallows throughout North America.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {266}, number = {1437}, pages = {2487-2490}, pmid = {10693819}, issn = {1471-2954}, abstract = {Increasing evidence suggests that climate change has affected the breeding and distribution of wildlife. If such changes are due to global warming, then we should expect to see large-scale effects. To explore for such effects on avian reproduction, we examined 3450 nest records of tree swallows from across North America. The egg-laying date in tree swallows advanced by up to nine days during 1959-1991. This advance in phenology was associated with increasing surface air temperatures at the time of breeding. Our analysis controlled for several potentially confounding variables such as latitude, longitude, breeding density and elevation. We conclude that tree swallows across North America are breeding earlier and that the most likely cause is a long-term increase in spring temperature.}, }
@article {pmid10693784, year = {2000}, author = {Overpeck, JT}, title = {Climate change. The hole record.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {403}, number = {6771}, pages = {714-715}, doi = {10.1038/35001697}, pmid = {10693784}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid10691549, year = {2000}, author = {Wuethrich, B}, title = {Ecology. How climate change alters rhythms of the wild.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {287}, number = {5454}, pages = {793, 795}, doi = {10.1126/science.287.5454.793}, pmid = {10691549}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Amphibians/physiology ; Animals ; Behavior, Animal ; Butterflies/physiology ; *Climate ; *Ecosystem ; Fishes/physiology ; Mammals/physiology ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Songbirds/physiology ; }, }
@article {pmid10659815, year = {2000}, author = {Macilwain, C}, title = {Global-warming sceptics left out in the cold.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {403}, number = {6767}, pages = {233}, doi = {10.1038/35002154}, pmid = {10659815}, issn = {1476-4687}, }
@article {pmid10657299, year = {2000}, author = {Saether, B and Tufto, J and Engen, S and Jerstad, K and Rostad, OW and Skâtan, JE}, title = {Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {287}, number = {5454}, pages = {854-856}, doi = {10.1126/science.287.5454.854}, pmid = {10657299}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Female ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; Population Density ; Population Dynamics ; Seasons ; Songbirds/*physiology ; Stochastic Processes ; }, abstract = {Predicting the effects of an expected climatic change requires estimates and modeling of stochastic factors as well as density-dependent effects in the population dynamics. In a population of a small songbird, the dipper (Cinclus cinclus), environmental stochasticity and density dependence both influenced the population growth rate. About half of the environmental variance was explained by variation in mean winter temperature. Including these results in a stochastic model shows that an expected change in climate will strongly affect the dynamics of the population, leading to a nonlinear increase in the carrying capacity and in the expected mean population size.}, }
@article {pmid10652556, year = {2000}, author = {Hughes, I}, title = {Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent?.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {56-61}, doi = {10.1016/s0169-5347(99)01764-4}, pmid = {10652556}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to have significant impacts on the world's climate on a timescale of decades to centuries. Evidence from long-term monitoring studies is now accumulating and suggests that the climate of the past few decades is anomalous compared with past climate variation, and that recent climatic and atmospheric trends are already affecting species physiology, distribution and phenology.}, }
@article {pmid10648359, year = {2000}, author = {Waterston, T and Lenton, S}, title = {Public health: Sustainable development, human induced global climate change, and the health of children.}, journal = {Archives of disease in childhood}, volume = {82}, number = {2}, pages = {95-97}, pmid = {10648359}, issn = {1468-2044}, mesh = {Child ; *Child Welfare ; *Environmental Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid10648202, year = {2000}, author = {Apple, ME and Olszyk, DM and Ormrod, DP and Lewis, J and Southworth, D and Tingey, DT}, title = {Morphology and Stomatal Function of Douglas Fir Needles Exposed to Climate Change: Elevated CO2 and Temperature.}, journal = {International journal of plant sciences}, volume = {161}, number = {1}, pages = {127-132}, doi = {10.1086/314237}, pmid = {10648202}, issn = {1058-5893}, abstract = {Climate change may have an impact on the productivity of conifer trees by influencing the morphology (size and surface characteristics) and function (capacity for gas exchange) of conifer needles. In order to test the responses of needles to climatic variables, Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco), saplings were grown in sunlit controlled environment chambers at ambient or elevated (+200 parts per million above ambient) CO2 and at ambient or elevated temperature (+4 degrees C above ambient). Needle characteristics, including length, width, area, stomatal density (stomata per mm2), percentage of stomatal occlusion, and the morphology of epicuticular wax, were evaluated. Needle function was evaluated as stomatal conductance to water vapor and transpiration. Needle length increased significantly with elevated temperature but not with elevated CO2. Neither elevated CO2 nor elevated temperature affected stomatal density or stomatal number in these hypostomatous needles. Epicuticular wax was less finely granular at elevated than at ambient temperature and was similar in appearance at elevated and ambient CO2. Stomatal conductance and transpiration increased with elevated temperature and associated increased vapor pressure deficit; however, neither conductance nor transpiration was affected by elevated CO2. These results indicate that simulated climate change influences Douglas fir needle structure and function.}, }
@article {pmid10633246, year = {1999}, author = {Listorti, JA}, title = {Is environmental health a determinant or an afterthought in policies ranging from water quality to global warming?.}, journal = {International journal of occupational and environmental health}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {286-296}, doi = {10.1179/oeh.1999.5.4.286}, pmid = {10633246}, issn = {1077-3525}, mesh = {*Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; *Water ; }, abstract = {The goal of this discussion is to draw attention to the regrettable fact that health repercussions are not being addressed in policy setting. This absence covers a spectrum from policies as technically focused as that governing water quality, where the health dimensions are well known, to policies as broad as those dealing with global warming, where the health dimensions are still being defined. This situation is likely to worsen unless the environmental health community accepts the responsibility to do more outreach. The presentation also gives examples of how inclusion of environmental health in policy deliberations can increase economically quantifiable benefits and can help justify investments that are otherwise considered too costly. Despite advances in environmental health, many, if not most, important decisions affecting human health are being made without the input of health specialists. At best, considerations of environmental health are afterthoughts in the policies of business, commerce, industry, and many government agencies that are involved--even if inadvertently--with creating most environmental health problems, and by implication, are potentially responsible for their solutions. Examples of situations where the health dimensions are well known, such as with water quality, are provided from some 200 past World Bank projects in water supply, waste disposal, transportation, housing, urban development, and telecommunications, designed mainly by engineers and economists. The absence of health input is not necessarily detrimental if agency policies or environmental reviews can compensate for the absence of direct health input by other means such as environmental assessments, which currently do not systematically include health.}, }
@article {pmid10629311, year = {2000}, author = {Fang, X and Stefan, HG}, title = {RESEARCH: Projected Climate Change Effects on Winterkill in Shallow Lakes in the Northern United States.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {25}, number = {3}, pages = {291-304}, doi = {10.1007/s002679910023}, pmid = {10629311}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {/ Each winter, hundreds of ice-covered, shallow lakes in the northern United States are aerated to prevent winterkill, the death of fish due to oxygen depletion under the ice. How will the projected climate warming influence winterkill and the need to artificially aerate lakes? To answer this question, a deterministic, one-dimensional year-round water quality model, which simulates daily dissolved oxygen (DO) profiles and associated water temperatures as well as ice/snow covers on lakes, was applied. Past and projected climate scenarios were investigated. The lake parameters required as model input are surface area, maximum depth, and Secchi depth as a measure of radiation attenuation and trophic state. The model is driven by daily weather data. Weather records from 209 stations in the contiguous United States for the period 1961-1979 were used to represent past climate conditions. The projected climate change due to a doubling of atmospheric CO(2) was obtained from the output of the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model. To illustrate the effect of projected climate change on lake DO characteristics, we present herein DO information simulated, respectively, with inputs of past climate conditions (1961-1979) and with a projected 2 x CO(2) climate scenario, as well as differences of those values. Specific parameters obtained were minimum under-ice and lake bottom DO concentration in winter, duration of under-ice anoxic conditions (<0.1 mg/liter) and low DO conditions (<3 mg/liter), and percentage of anoxic and low DO lake volumes during the ice cover period. Under current climate conditions winterkill occurs typically in shallow eutrophic lakes of the northern contiguous United States. Climate warming is projected to eliminate winterkill in these lakes. This would be a positive effect of climate warming. Fish species under ice may still experience periods of stress and zero growth due to low DO (<3 mg/liter) conditions under projected climate warming.}, }
@article {pmid10583952, year = {1999}, author = {Vinnikov, KY and Robock, A and Stouffer, RJ and Walsh, JE and Parkinson, CL and Cavalieri, DJ and Mitchell, JF and Garrett, D and Zakharov, VF}, title = {Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {286}, number = {5446}, pages = {1934-1937}, doi = {10.1126/science.286.5446.1934}, pmid = {10583952}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.}, }
@article {pmid10549153, year = {1999}, author = {Williams, JR}, title = {Addressing global warming and biodiversity through forest restoration and coastal wetlands creation.}, journal = {The Science of the total environment}, volume = {240}, number = {1-3}, pages = {1-9}, doi = {10.1016/s0048-9697(99)00322-8}, pmid = {10549153}, issn = {1879-1026}, abstract = {The Climate Challenge is a partnership between the Department of Energy and the electric utility industry to reduce, avoid, and sequester greenhouse gases. A portion of the initiative, the sequestration of greenhouse gases, is the focus of this presentation. Over 4 million acres of bottomland hardwood forests were cleared for agriculture in the Mississippi River Valley in the 1970s. Reestablishing these forests would improve depleted wildlife habitats, serve as wildlife corridors, increase biodiversity, and decrease soil erosion. Louisiana is losing coastal wetlands at a rate of approximately 25 square miles/year. This coastal erosion is due to a number of factors and many efforts are currently underway to address the matter. One such effort is the use of material generated in the dredging of navigational canals; however, this material is low in nutrient value, making the regeneration of marsh grasses more difficult. In addition, bottomland hardwood forests and coastal wetland grasses are excellent 'carbon sinks' because they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and store it in living plant tissue. Entergy Services, Inc. is an electric utility with a service territory that comprises portions of both the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Gulf of Mexico coastline. This provides an opportunity to positively address both habitat losses noted above while at the same time addressing global warming, forest fragmentation, and biodiversity. Entergy, through its affiliation with the UtiliTree Carbon Company, is participating in projects that will investigate the feasibility of using bottomland hardwood reforestation on cleared marginal farmlands now managed by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries and the US Fish and Wildlife Service. Entergy has also begun a research project with the Environmental Protection Agency and the State of Louisiana. The research is a compost demonstration project that will utilize wood waste generated through our tree-trimming program as a compost material that will be mixed with low nutrient dredge material to create new coastal wetlands. Taken together, Entergy's initiatives will be able to address global warming through carbon sequestration, restore fragmented forest habitats, reduce coastal erosion and improve the quality of a vital coastal aquatic nursery habitat. Efforts will be made to manage the created habitats for biodiversity. Pulling all these ideas together creates an effect in which the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. In such a synergy of ideas, there are no losers and the winners are both industry participants and the environment.}, }
@article {pmid10542141, year = {1999}, author = {Severinghaus, JP and Brook, EJ}, title = {Abrupt climate change at the end of the last glacial period inferred from trapped air in polar Ice.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {286}, number = {5441}, pages = {930-934}, doi = {10.1126/science.286.5441.930}, pmid = {10542141}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {The last glacial period was terminated by an abrupt warming event in the North Atlantic approximately 15,000 years before the present, and warming events of similar age have been reported from low latitudes. Understanding the mechanism of this termination requires that the precise relative timing of abrupt climate warming in the tropics versus the North Atlantic be known. Nitrogen and argon isotopes in trapped air in Greenland ice show that the Greenland Summit warmed 9 +/- 3 degrees C over a period of several decades, beginning 14,672 years ago. Atmospheric methane concentrations rose abruptly over a approximately 50-year period and began their increase 20 to 30 years after the onset of the abrupt Greenland warming. These data suggest that tropical climate became warmer or wetter (or both) approximately 20 to 80 years after the onset of Greenland warming, supporting a North Atlantic rather than a tropical trigger for the climate event.}, }
@article {pmid10544718, year = {1999}, author = {Arya, SC}, title = {Global warming and performance of therapeutic agents against leprosy.}, journal = {Acta leprologica}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {79-81}, pmid = {10544718}, issn = {0001-5938}, mesh = {Drug Stability ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Leprostatic Agents/*chemistry/*therapeutic use ; Leprosy/*drug therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid10523173, year = {1999}, author = {Arya, SC}, title = {Global warming and efficacy of therapeutic agents for respiratory diseases.}, journal = {Respiration; international review of thoracic diseases}, volume = {66}, number = {4}, pages = {380-382}, pmid = {10523173}, issn = {0025-7931}, mesh = {Drug Storage ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Respiratory System Agents/therapeutic use ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*drug therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid10506565, year = {1999}, author = {Solomon, SC and Bullock, MA and Grinspoon, DH}, title = {Climate change as a regulator of tectonics on Venus.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {286}, number = {5437}, pages = {87-90}, doi = {10.1126/science.286.5437.87}, pmid = {10506565}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Climate ; *Extraterrestrial Environment ; Geological Phenomena ; Geology ; Sulfur Dioxide ; Temperature ; *Venus ; Volcanic Eruptions ; Water ; }, abstract = {Tectonics, volcanism, and climate on Venus may be strongly coupled. Large excursions in surface temperature predicted to follow a global or near-global volcanic event diffuse into the interior and introduce thermal stresses of a magnitude sufficient to influence widespread tectonic deformation. This sequence of events accounts for the timing and many of the characteristics of deformation in the ridged plains of Venus, the most widely preserved volcanic terrain on the planet.}, }
@article {pmid10490352, year = {1999}, author = {Patz, JA and Lindsay, SW}, title = {New challenges, new tools: the impact of climate change on infectious diseases.}, journal = {Current opinion in microbiology}, volume = {2}, number = {4}, pages = {445-451}, doi = {10.1016/s1369-5274(99)80078-2}, pmid = {10490352}, issn = {1369-5274}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Communicable Diseases/microbiology/parasitology/*transmission ; Geography ; Humans ; Malaria/parasitology/transmission ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid10485132, year = {1999}, author = {Tchounwou, PB}, title = {Climate change and its potential impacts on the Gulf Coast region of the United States.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {91-102}, doi = {10.1515/reveh.1999.14.2.91}, pmid = {10485132}, issn = {0048-7554}, mesh = {Ecosystem ; *Environment ; Environmental Health/*trends ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Southeastern United States ; Temperature ; Texas ; }, abstract = {The Gulf Coast region of the United States abuts five states, including Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. In general, the Gulf of Mexico has a surface area of 1.63 million square kilometers (630,000 square miles) and a watershed area of 4.69 million square kilometers (1.81 million square miles) in the United States. This region is one of the nation's largest ecological systems and is closely linked to a significant portion of the nation's economy. In the Gulf Coast region, energy, fisheries, agriculture, and tourism rank among the most significant sectors of the economy. The Gulf has five of the top ten fishing ports in the United States, and commercial fisheries in the Gulf annually produce nearly 2 billion tons of fish, oysters, shrimps, and crabs. Gulf ports handle one-half of the nation's import-export tonnage. Petroleum produced in the Gulf represents about 80% of the nation's offshore production. The Gulf Coast region largely relies on many natural resources to fuel many important sectors of its economy. But nevertheless, the health and vitality of the Gulf have declined in recent years, caused in part by increasing populations along its coast and the growing demand upon its resources and in part by the accumulation of years of careless depletion, abuse, and neglect of the environment. Equally important are the impacts of natural and human-induced climate change on the economy and on the quality of life for millions of people living in the Gulf Coast region. The results have generated alarming increases in damage to and destruction of the ecosystems and habitats of the Gulf. This paper reviews the nature of global environmental change and addresses the potential health and environmental impacts that may occur in the Gulf Coast region of the United States as a consequence of various environmental alterations resulting from global change.}, }
@article {pmid10474650, year = {1999}, author = {Arya, SC}, title = {Global warming and the performance of drugs used to treat parasitic and other diseases.}, journal = {Annals of tropical medicine and parasitology}, volume = {93}, number = {2}, pages = {207-208}, doi = {10.1080/00034989958735}, pmid = {10474650}, issn = {0003-4983}, mesh = {Anti-Infective Agents/*therapeutic use ; Drug Stability ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Parasitic Diseases/*drug therapy ; }, }
@article {pmid10468545, year = {1999}, author = {Alley, RB and Lynch-Stieglitz, J and Severinghaus, JP}, title = {Global climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {96}, number = {18}, pages = {9987-9988}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.96.18.9987}, pmid = {10468545}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Agriculture ; *Climate ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Human Activities ; Humans ; Industry ; Time ; }, abstract = {Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by "band jumps" between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities.}, }
@article {pmid10464094, year = {1999}, author = {McElwain, JC and Beerling, DJ and Woodward, FI}, title = {Fossil Plants and Global Warming at the Triassic-Jurassic Boundary.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {285}, number = {5432}, pages = {1386-1390}, doi = {10.1126/science.285.5432.1386}, pmid = {10464094}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {The Triassic-Jurassic boundary marks a major faunal mass extinction, but records of accompanying environmental changes are limited. Paleobotanical evidence indicates a fourfold increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and suggests an associated 3 degrees to 4 degrees C "greenhouse" warming across the boundary. These environmental conditions are calculated to have raised leaf temperatures above a highly conserved lethal limit, perhaps contributing to the >95 percent species-level turnover of Triassic-Jurassic megaflora.}, }
@article {pmid10449757, year = {1999}, author = {Bradley, NL and Leopold, AC and Ross, J and Huffaker, W}, title = {Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {96}, number = {17}, pages = {9701-9704}, pmid = {10449757}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {A phenological study of springtime events was made over a 61-year period at one site in southern Wisconsin. The records over this long period show that several phenological events have been increasing in earliness; we discuss evidence indicating that these changes reflect climate change. The mean of regressions for the 55 phenophases studied was -0.12 day per year, an overall increase in phenological earliness at this site during the period. Some phenophases have not increased in earliness, as would be expected for phenophases that are regulated by photoperiod or by a physiological signal other than local temperature.}, }
@article {pmid10383247, year = {1999}, author = {}, title = {Early action on climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {107}, number = {4}, pages = {A187-8}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.107-1566536}, pmid = {10383247}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Environmental Health/*standards ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *International Cooperation ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid10381972, year = {1999}, author = {Arya, SC}, title = {Global warming and therapeutic agents during travel.}, journal = {Journal of travel medicine}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {150-151}, pmid = {10381972}, issn = {1195-1982}, mesh = {*Drug Storage ; Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Temperature ; *Travel ; Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid10373208, year = {1999}, author = {}, title = {Europe must manage the health effects of inevitable climate change.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {318}, number = {7199}, pages = {G}, pmid = {10373208}, issn = {1756-1833}, }
@article {pmid10373176, year = {1999}, author = {Kovats, RS and Haines, A and Stanwell-Smith, R and Martens, P and Menne, B and Bertollini, R}, title = {Climate change and human health in Europe.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {318}, number = {7199}, pages = {1682-1685}, pmid = {10373176}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {Adaptation, Physiological ; *Climate ; Disasters ; *Environmental Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Infections/etiology ; *Public Health ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid10357598, year = {1998}, author = {Arya, SC}, title = {Glabal climate change and weakened therapeutic agents against ischaemic heart diseases.}, journal = {Cardiology}, volume = {90}, number = {4}, pages = {309-310}, doi = {10.1159/000006865}, pmid = {10357598}, issn = {0008-6312}, mesh = {Cardiovascular Agents/*chemistry/*therapeutic use ; Drug Stability ; Drug Storage ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Myocardial Ischemia/*drug therapy ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid10356384, year = {1999}, author = {Arya, SC}, title = {Global warming and performance of antiepileptic therapeutics.}, journal = {Seizure}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {195-196}, doi = {10.1053/seiz.1998.0269}, pmid = {10356384}, issn = {1059-1311}, mesh = {Anticonvulsants/*chemistry/classification ; Drug Packaging ; *Drug Stability ; Drug Storage/*methods ; Environment ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid10339519, year = {1999}, author = {Evenson, RE}, title = {Global and local implications of biotechnology and climate change for future food supplies.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {96}, number = {11}, pages = {5921-5928}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.96.11.5921}, pmid = {10339519}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Agriculture/*trends ; Animal Husbandry/trends ; Animals ; Biotechnology/*trends ; *Climate ; Demography ; Edible Grain ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Oryza ; *Population Growth ; Research ; }, abstract = {The development of improved technology for agricultural production and its diffusion to farmers is a process requiring investment and time. A large number of studies of this process have been undertaken. The findings of these studies have been incorporated into a quantitative policy model projecting supplies of commodities (in terms of area and crop yields), equilibrium prices, and international trade volumes to the year 2020. These projections show that a "global food crisis," as would be manifested in high commodity prices, is unlikely to occur. The same projections show, however, that in many countries, "local food crisis," as manifested in low agricultural incomes and associated low food consumption in the presence of low food prices, will occur. Simulations show that delays in the diffusion of modern biotechnology research capabilities to developing countries will exacerbate local food crises. Similarly, global climate change will also exacerbate these crises, accentuating the importance of bringing strengthened research capabilities to developing countries.}, }
@article {pmid10322724, year = {1998}, author = {Yu, C and Zhang, Z and Cong, B}, title = {[Global warming and communicable diseases].}, journal = {Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi}, volume = {19}, number = {2}, pages = {114-117}, pmid = {10322724}, issn = {0254-6450}, mesh = {*Communicable Disease Control ; Ecology ; Humans ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid10322520, year = {1999}, author = {Harrington, R and Woiwod, I and Sparks, T}, title = {Climate change and trophic interactions.}, journal = {Trends in ecology &amp; evolution}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {146-150}, doi = {10.1016/s0169-5347(99)01604-3}, pmid = {10322520}, issn = {1872-8383}, abstract = {With confirmation of anthropogenically induced climate change, the spotlight is on biologists to predict and detect effects on populations. The complexity of interactions within and between the biotic and abiotic components involved makes this a tough challenge, and most studies have consequently considered effects of only single climate variables on single species. However, some have gone further, and recently published long-term datasets now offer opportunities that complement new experimental approaches that span trophic levels. With these datasets, predicting relative shifts in temporal and spatial associations could be among the most tractable problems.}, }
@article {pmid10320369, year = {1999}, author = {Martinez-Cortizas, A and Pontevedra-Pombal, X and Garcia-Rodeja, E and Novoa-Munoz, JC and Shotyk, W}, title = {Mercury in a spanish peat bog: archive of climate change and atmospheric metal deposition.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {284}, number = {5416}, pages = {939-942}, doi = {10.1126/science.284.5416.939}, pmid = {10320369}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {A peat core from a bog in northwest Spain provides a record of the net accumulation of atmospheric mercury since 4000 radiocarbon years before the present. It was found that cold climates promoted an enhanced accumulation and the preservation of mercury with low thermal stability, and warm climates were characterized by a lower accumulation and the predominance of mercury with moderate to high thermal stability. This record can be separated into natural and anthropogenic components. The substantial anthropogenic mercury component began approximately 2500 radiocarbon years before the present, which is near the time of the onset of mercury mining in Spain. Anthropogenic mercury has dominated the deposition record since the Islamic period (8th to 11th centuries A.D.). The results shown here have implications for the global mercury cycle and also imply that the thermal lability of the accumulated mercury can be used not only to quantify the effects of human activity, but also as a new tool for quantitative paleotemperature reconstruction.}, }
@article {pmid10318924, year = {1999}, author = {Brown, JL and Li, SH and Bhagabati, N}, title = {Long-term trend toward earlier breeding in an American bird: a response to global warming?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {96}, number = {10}, pages = {5565-5569}, pmid = {10318924}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Animals ; Arizona ; Birds/*physiology ; Breeding ; Ecology ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; North America ; *Reproduction ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, abstract = {In regions with severe winters, global warming may be expected to cause earlier onset of breeding in most animals, yet no documentation of such a trend exists in North America. In a study of marked individuals of the Mexican jay (Aphelocoma ultramarina) in southeastern Arizona, from 1971 to 1998, the mean Julian date of first clutch in the population declined significantly by 10.1 days. The date of the first nest in the population also became earlier, by 10.8 days. These changes were associated with significant trends toward increased monthly minimum temperatures on the study area, traits that are associated with the onset of breeding in this population. Significant trends from 1971 to 1997 toward warmer minimum temperatures in the months before and during the initiation of breeding were observed. These trends parallel changes in minimum temperatures and community composition in a recent study of grassland ecology in the western United States. Together, they suggest that more attention should be given to the possible ecological importance of global change in minimum temperatures.}, }
@article {pmid10229716, year = {1999}, author = {Longstreth, J}, title = {Public health consequences of global climate change in the United States--some regions may suffer disproportionately.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {107 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {169-179}, pmid = {10229716}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Air Pollutants/toxicity ; Animals ; *Climate ; Disease Susceptibility ; Humans ; Ozone/toxicity ; *Public Health ; Risk ; United States ; }, abstract = {Current risk assessments of the likely regional health impacts of global climate change (GCC) are hindered by two factors. First, dose-response relationships between weather parameters and many of the likely health effects have not been developed, and second, reliable estimates of future regional climates across the United States are still beyond the scope of current modeling efforts. Consequently, probabilistic risk estimates of most of the likely regional health impacts of GCC have such a high degree of uncertainty that their usefulness to health officials dealing with regional issues is very limited. With the numerous pressures on today's health care systems, it is understandable that the possible consequences of GCC have received scant attention from regional health care decision makers. Indeed, the consensus among this community appears to be that any increases in health effects associated with GCC will be easily handled by the current health care system. However, such a position may be naive as the potential exists that an unequal distribution of such effects could overwhelm some regions, whereas others may feel little or no impact. This review of the likely regional impacts of GCC has been structured as a semianalytical look at this issue of distributional effects. Because of the lack of dose-response information and reliable estimates of future regional climates, however, it takes a historical perspective. That is, it assumes that the quality and quantity of health risks a region faces under GCC will be directly related to its recent history of health risks from warm weather/climate-related diseases as well as to the size, characteristics, and distribution of the sensitive subpopulations currently residing within its borders. The approach is semiquantitative; however, it uses national data gathered on a regional level and as such should only be used to generate a hypothesis rather than test it. When applied to the United States, its outcome leads to the hypothesis that if indeed history repeats itself, some states or regions may be more greatly affected by GCC than others, not only because historically they are more prone to summer weather/climate-related diseases, but also because they contain a greater proportion of the sensitive subpopulations in the United States.}, }
@article {pmid10216640, year = {1998}, author = {}, title = {Health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Indian pediatrics}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {488}, pmid = {10216640}, issn = {0019-6061}, mesh = {Cholera/epidemiology ; *Climate ; *Global Health ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology ; Population Surveillance ; *Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid10210687, year = {1999}, author = {Chan, NY and Ebi, KL and Smith, F and Wilson, TF and Smith, AE}, title = {An integrated assessment framework for climate change and infectious diseases.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {107}, number = {5}, pages = {329-337}, pmid = {10210687}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communicable Diseases/*transmission ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; Malaria/transmission ; Risk Assessment ; }, abstract = {Many potential human health effects have been hypothesized to result either directly or indirectly from global climate change. Changes in the prevalence and spread of infectious diseases are some of the most widely cited potential effects of climate change, and could have significant consequences for human health as well as economic and societal impacts. These changes in disease incidence would be mediated through biologic, ecologic, sociologic, and epidemiologic processes that interact with each other and which may themselves be influenced by climate change. Although hypothesized infectious disease effects have been widely discussed, there have not yet been thorough quantitative studies addressing the many processes at work. In part this is because of the complexity of the many indirect and feedback interactions or mechanisms that bear on all aspects of the climate issue. It also results from the difficulty of including the multitude of always-changing determinants of these diseases. This paper proposes a framework for an integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases. The framework allows identification of potentially important indirect interactions or mechanisms, identification of important research gaps, and a means of integrating targeted research from a variety of disciplines into an enhanced understanding of the whole system.}, }
@article {pmid10205049, year = {1999}, author = {Joos, F and Plattner, GK and Stocker, TF and Marchal, O and Schmittner, A}, title = {Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {284}, number = {5413}, pages = {464-467}, doi = {10.1126/science.284.5413.464}, pmid = {10205049}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {A low-order physical-biogeochemical climate model was used to project atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming for scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation weakens in all global warming simulations and collapses at high levels of carbon dioxide. Projected changes in the marine carbon cycle have a modest impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Compared with the control, atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 4 percent at year 2100 and 20 percent at year 2500. The reduction in ocean carbon uptake can be mainly explained by sea surface warming. The projected changes of the marine biological cycle compensate the reduction in downward mixing of anthropogenic carbon, except when the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapses.}, }
@article {pmid10077868, year = {1999}, author = {Jakosky, BM}, title = {Martian stable isotopes: volatile evolution, climate change and exobiological implications.}, journal = {Origins of life and evolution of the biosphere : the journal of the International Society for the Study of the Origin of Life}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {47-57}, pmid = {10077868}, issn = {0169-6149}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Evolution, Chemical ; *Exobiology ; Geological Phenomena ; Geology ; *Isotopes ; *Mars ; }, abstract = {Measurements of the ratios of stable isotopes in the martian atmosphere and crust provide fundamental information about the evolution of the martian volatile and climate system. Current best estimates of the isotope ratios indicate that there has been substantial loss of gases to space and exchange of gases between the atmosphere and the crust throughout geologic time; exchange may have occurred through circulation of water in hydrothermal systems. Processes of volatile evolution and exchange will fractionate the isotopes in a manner that complicates the possible interpretation of isotopic data in terms of any fractionation that may have been caused by martian biota, and must be understood first. Key measurements are suggested that will enhance our understanding of the non-biological fractionation of the isotopes and of the evolution of the martian volatile system.}, }
@article {pmid10050543, year = {1998}, author = {Alekseev, AN}, title = {[The possible consequences of the probable global warming of the climate for the spread of blood-sucking ectoparasites and the pathogens they transmit].}, journal = {Meditsinskaia parazitologiia i parazitarnye bolezni}, volume = {}, number = {4}, pages = {3-8}, pmid = {10050543}, issn = {0025-8326}, mesh = {Animals ; Arachnid Vectors/*parasitology ; Ectoparasitic Infestations/parasitology/*transmission ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/*parasitology ; Prognosis ; Russia ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The paper reviews the causes and possible consequences of the warming-up of global climate. Probable changes in the areas of vectors and blood-suckers, which are most important for Russia, are analyzed. The vectors of malaria and tick-borne pathogens were used as special subjects of prognostic survey. The paper shows it necessary to computer-aided simulate possible consequences of climatic warming-up for changes in the parasitological situation in the Russian Federation.}, }
@article {pmid10036363, year = {1998}, author = {Kovats, S and Patz, JA and Dobbins, D}, title = {Global climate change and environmental health: proceedings of the 1997 annual conference of the Society for Occupational and Environmental Health.}, journal = {International journal of occupational and environmental health}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {41-52}, doi = {10.1179/oeh.1998.4.1.41}, pmid = {10036363}, issn = {1077-3525}, mesh = {Communicable Diseases/etiology ; *Environmental Health ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Status ; Humans ; Morbidity ; Occupational Health ; Oceans and Seas ; Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid10026029, year = {1999}, author = {Arya, SC}, title = {Global warming and therapeutic intervention for hepatitis B and C virus infection.}, journal = {Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.)}, volume = {29}, number = {2}, pages = {610-611}, doi = {10.1002/hep.510290209}, pmid = {10026029}, issn = {0270-9139}, mesh = {Antiviral Agents/*therapeutic use ; Drug Stability ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hepatitis B/*drug therapy ; Hepatitis C/*drug therapy ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid9880257, year = {1999}, author = {Alward, RD and Detling, JK and Milchunas, DG}, title = {Grassland vegetation changes and nocturnal global warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {283}, number = {5399}, pages = {229-231}, doi = {10.1126/science.283.5399.229}, pmid = {9880257}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Global minimum temperatures (TMIN) are increasing faster than maximum temperatures, but the ecological consequences of this are largely unexplored. Long-term data sets from the shortgrass steppe were used to identify correlations between TMIN and several vegetation variables. This ecosystem is potentially sensitive to increases in TMIN. Most notably, increased spring TMIN was correlated with decreased net primary production by the dominant C4 grass (Bouteloua gracilis) and with increased abundance and production by exotic and native C3 forbs. Reductions in B. gracilis may make this system more vulnerable to invasion by exotic species and less tolerant of drought and grazing.}, }
@article {pmid9845062, year = {1998}, author = {Gaffin, SR and O'Neill, BC}, title = {Combat climate change by reducing fertility.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {396}, number = {6709}, pages = {307}, doi = {10.1038/24479}, pmid = {9845062}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; *Fertility ; Humans ; Population Growth ; }, }
@article {pmid9765150, year = {1998}, author = {Pollack, HN and Huang, S and Shen, PY}, title = {Climate change record in subsurface temperatures: A global perspective.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {282}, number = {5387}, pages = {279-281}, doi = {10.1126/science.282.5387.279}, pmid = {9765150}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Analyses of underground temperature measurements from 358 boreholes in eastern North America, central Europe, southern Africa, and Australia indicate that, in the 20th century, the average surface temperature of Earth has increased by about 0.5 degreesC and that the 20th century has been the warmest of the past five centuries. The subsurface temperatures also indicate that Earth's mean surface temperature has increased by about 1.0 degreesC over the past five centuries. The geothermal data offer an independent confirmation of the unusual character of 20th-century climate that has emerged from recent multiproxy studies.}, }
@article {pmid9734919, year = {1998}, author = {Haines, A}, title = {Global warming and vector-borne disease.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {351}, number = {9117}, pages = {1737-1738}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(05)77778-3}, pmid = {9734919}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; *Altitude ; Animals ; *Climate ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Disease Vectors ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Malaria/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid9734918, year = {1998}, author = {Epstein, PR}, title = {Global warming and vector-borne disease.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {351}, number = {9117}, pages = {1737; author reply 1738}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(05)77777-1}, pmid = {9734918}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Africa/epidemiology ; *Altitude ; Animals ; Asia/epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Disease Vectors ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Incidence ; Latin America/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid9721093, year = {1998}, author = {TAC, }, title = {Ocean climate change: comparison of acoustic tomography, satellite altimetry, and modeling.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {281}, number = {5381}, pages = {1327-1332}, doi = {10.1126/science.281.5381.1327}, pmid = {9721093}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Comparisons of gyre-scale acoustic and direct thermal measurements of heat content in the Pacific Ocean, satellite altimeter measurements of sea surface height, and results from a general circulation model show that only about half of the seasonal and year-to-year changes in sea level are attributable to thermal expansion. Interpreting climate change signals from fluctuations in sea level is therefore complicated. The annual cycle of heat flux is 150 +/- 25 watts per square meter (peak-to-peak, corresponding to a 0.2 degreesC vertically averaged temperature cycle); an interannual change of similar magnitude is also detected. Meteorological estimates of surface heat flux, if accurate, require a large seasonal cycle in the advective heat flux.}, }
@article {pmid9719405, year = {1998}, author = {Sato, GH and Ghezae, T and Negassi, S}, title = {The Manzanar Project: towards a solution to poverty, hunger, environmental pollution, and global warming through sea water aquaculture and silviculture in deserts.}, journal = {In vitro cellular &amp; developmental biology. Animal}, volume = {34}, number = {7}, pages = {509-511}, doi = {10.1007/s11626-998-0105-y}, pmid = {9719405}, issn = {1071-2690}, mesh = {*Aquaculture ; Environmental Pollutants ; Eritrea ; Eukaryota ; Greenhouse Effect ; Hunger ; Poverty ; *Seawater ; *Social Problems ; }, }
@article {pmid9716968, year = {1998}, author = {Colwell, R and Epstein, P and Gubler, D and Hall, M and Reiter, P and Shukla, J and Sprigg, W and Takafuji, E and Trtanj, J}, title = {Global climate change and infectious diseases.}, journal = {Emerging infectious diseases}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {451-452}, doi = {10.3201/eid0403.980327}, pmid = {9716968}, issn = {1080-6040}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid9678497, year = {1998}, author = {D'Cruz, LM and Dockray, JJ and Morgan, IJ and Wood, CM}, title = {Physiological effects of sublethal acid exposure in juvenile rainbow trout on a limited or unlimited ration during a simulated global warming scenario.}, journal = {Physiological zoology}, volume = {71}, number = {4}, pages = {359-376}, doi = {10.1086/515421}, pmid = {9678497}, issn = {0031-935X}, mesh = {Acid Rain/*adverse effects ; Animals ; Eating ; *Energy Metabolism ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Oncorhynchus mykiss/*physiology ; Temperature ; Water-Electrolyte Balance ; }, abstract = {Changes in the physiology and cost of living of fish were studied during exposure to simulated global warming and environmental acidification, alone and in combination. Trout were exposed to slightly elevated water temperatures (+2 degrees C), in the presence and absence of sublethal acidity (pH 5.2) in synthetic softwater for 90 d (8 degrees - 12 degrees C). Fish were either fed to satiation (ca. 1%-3% of their wet-body weight daily) or fed 1% of their wet-body weight once every 4 d. Satiation-fed fish exposed to sublethal pH showed no ionoregulatory disturbances but exhibited increased appetites and growth compared to fish in control pH waters. In contrast, fish maintained on a limited ration did not grow and showed typical ionoregulatory responses to acid stress, with lower whole-body Na+ and Cl- concentrations and greater mortality. Detrimental effects were greater in the global warming scenario (+2 degrees C). Overall, a slight temperature increase and sublethal pH increased the cost of living as determined by increased food consumption in satiation-fed fish and greater mortalities in fish maintained on a limited ration. Most important, these findings suggest that fish given sufficient food can compensate for increased energy expenditure or difficulties in maintaining ion balance associated with low pH exposure.}, }
@article {pmid9673874, year = {1998}, author = {Russell, RC}, title = {Mosquito-borne arboviruses in Australia: the current scene and implications of climate change for human health.}, journal = {International journal for parasitology}, volume = {28}, number = {6}, pages = {955-969}, doi = {10.1016/s0020-7519(98)00053-8}, pmid = {9673874}, issn = {0020-7519}, mesh = {Alphavirus Infections/epidemiology/transmission ; Animals ; Arbovirus Infections/*epidemiology/transmission ; Australia/epidemiology ; *Climate ; Culicidae/*physiology/virology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Encephalitis, Arbovirus/epidemiology/transmission ; Humans ; Incidence ; Insect Vectors/*physiology/virology ; Rain ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Of the mosquito-borne arboviruses, the encephalitic Murray Valley encephalitis and Kunjin viruses are a major public health concern, but the arthritides Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses are more important in a public health sense, being responsible for a far greater number of infections. Reported cases of Ross River totalled approximately 30,000 during 1991-1996; there have been several widely separated outbreaks of Barmah Forest in recent years and case reports are increasing annually. Surveillance programmes have increased our understanding of the geographic regions, climatic conditions and vector factors associated with viruses. Virus activity is widespread but is often localised, is driven primarily by mosquito abundance and various species are involved; host factors are involved also, but are not well understood. Typically, mosquito populations are governed by availability of habitat and environmental conditions. Models of climate change predict increases in rainfall, tides and temperature for parts of Australia, and such changes have the potential to increase the risk of arbovirus transmission by increasing the distribution and abundance of vectors, and duration of mosquito and arbovirus seasons. However, the amplitude of climate change is uncertain and the ecology of arbovirus transmission is complex. It is likely that some areas will have increases in arbovirus activity and human infection with predicted climate change, but risk of increased transmission will vary with locality, vector, host and human factors.}, }
@article {pmid9582154, year = {1998}, author = {Haines, A and McMichael, AJ and Kovats, S and Saunders, M}, title = {Majority view of climate scientists is that global warming is indeed happening.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {316}, number = {7143}, pages = {1530}, pmid = {9582154}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid9582395, year = {1998}, author = {Van Der Sluijs, JP and Van Eijndhoven, J C}, title = {Closure of Disputes in Assessments of Climate Change in The Netherlands.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {22}, number = {4}, pages = {597-609}, doi = {10.1007/s002679900131}, pmid = {9582395}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {/ This paper presents an analysis of the closure of visible disputes in the assessments of climate change in the Netherlands. We focus primarily on two key constituents of the assessments: the estimate of climate sensitivity and the inclusion of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in assessment studies. For the cases studied, we identify variability in the assessment reports in the Netherlands during the pre-IPCC period. In the Netherlands arena, the assessments in this period can be seen as exponents of two different lines, a Netherlands line and an international line. We seek to identify what factors were decisive in the selection processes that resulted in the closure of visible disputes (visible in or across the assessment reports) for both cases. Our analysis reveals a remarkable difference in the adoption behavior of two Dutch assessment groups despite a large overlap in membership. We provide evidence that it is not the paradigmatic predisposition of the experts in the committee that was decisive for the closure of visible disputes, but it was the context in which the experts operated and the commitments they had made in each setting.}, }
@article {pmid9563947, year = {1998}, author = {Kim, SJ and Crowley, TJ and Stossel, A}, title = {Local orbital forcing of antarctic climate change during the last interglacial.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {280}, number = {5364}, pages = {728-730}, doi = {10.1126/science.280.5364.728}, pmid = {9563947}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {During the last interglacial, Antarctic climate changed before that of the Northern Hemisphere. Large local changes in precession forcing could have produced this pattern if there were a rectified response in sea ice cover. Results from a coupled sea ice-ocean general circulation model supported this hypothesis when it was tested for three intervals around the last interglacial. Such a mechanism may play an important role in contributing to phase offsets between Northern and Southern Hemisphere climate change for other time intervals.}, }
@article {pmid9552965, year = {1998}, author = {Gardner, G}, title = {Many climate change scientists do not agree that global warming is happening.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {316}, number = {7138}, pages = {1164}, pmid = {9552965}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {*Attitude ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid9539017, year = {1998}, author = {Martens, WJ}, title = {Health impacts of climate change and ozone depletion: an ecoepidemiologic modeling approach.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {106 Suppl 1}, number = {Suppl 1}, pages = {241-251}, pmid = {9539017}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Disease Vectors ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; *Ozone ; Skin Neoplasms/etiology ; Ultraviolet Rays/*adverse effects ; }, abstract = {Anthropogenic climate changes and stratospheric ozone depletion affect human health in various ways. Current mainstream epidemiologic research methods do not appear well adapted to analyze these health impacts, which involve complex systems influenced by human interventions or simpler processes that will take place in the future. This paper discusses a different paradigm for studying the health impacts of global environmental changes and focuses on the development of integrated ecoepidemiologic models using three examples--the effect of climate change on vector-borne diseases, the effect of climate change on thermal-related mortality, and the effects of increasing ultraviolet levels because of ozone depletion on the rates of skin cancer.}, }
@article {pmid9519996, year = {1998}, author = {Reiter, P}, title = {Global-warming and vector-borne disease in temperate regions and at high altitude.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {351}, number = {9105}, pages = {839-840}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(05)78979-0}, pmid = {9519996}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Altitude ; Animals ; Climate ; *Disease Outbreaks/history ; Disease Vectors ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, Ancient ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology/history ; }, }
@article {pmid9490480, year = {1998}, author = {Colwell, RR and Epstein, PR and Gubler, D and Maynard, N and McMichael, AJ and Patz, JA and Sack, RB and Shope, R}, title = {Climate change and human health.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {279}, number = {5353}, pages = {968-969}, doi = {10.1126/science.279.5353.963g}, pmid = {9490480}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {*Climate ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Public Health Practice ; Research ; Risk Assessment ; }, }
@article {pmid9486646, year = {1998}, author = {Davis, AJ and Jenkinson, LS and Lawton, JH and Shorrocks, B and Wood, S}, title = {Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {391}, number = {6669}, pages = {783-786}, doi = {10.1038/35842}, pmid = {9486646}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {Animals ; Drosophila/parasitology/physiology ; Drosophila melanogaster/parasitology/physiology ; Ecology ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; Population Dynamics ; Temperature ; Wasps/physiology ; }, abstract = {Many attempts to predict the biotic responses to climate change rely on the 'climate envelope' approach, in which the current distribution of a species is mapped in climate-space and then, if the position of that climate-space changes, the distribution of the species is predicted to shift accordingly. The flaw in this approach is that distributions of species also reflect the influence of interactions with other species, so predictions based on climate envelopes may be very misleading if the interactions between species are altered by climate change. An additional problem is that current distributions may be the result of sources and sinks, in which species appear to thrive in places where they really persist only because individuals disperse into them from elsewhere. Here we use microcosm experiments on simple but realistic assemblages to show how misleading the climate envelope approach can be. We show that dispersal and interactions, which are important elements of population dynamics, must be included in predictions of biotic responses to climate change.}, }
@article {pmid9460815, year = {1998}, author = {Martens, WJ}, title = {Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {46}, number = {3}, pages = {331-344}, doi = {10.1016/s0277-9536(97)00162-7}, pmid = {9460815}, issn = {0277-9536}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Factors ; Aged ; Body Temperature Regulation ; Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology/mortality ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate ; Female ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Heat Stress Disorders/etiology/mortality ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Mortality ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/etiology/mortality ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {One of the potential effects of an anthropogenically induced climate change is a change in mortality related to thermal stress. In this paper, existing literature on the relationship between average temperatures and mortality is evaluated. By means of a simple meta-analysis an aggregated effect of a change in temperature on mortality is estimated for total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. These effect estimates are combined with projections of changes in baseline climate conditions of 20 cities, according to climate change scenarios of three General Circulation Models (GCMs). The results indicate that for most of the cities included, global climate change is likely to lead to a reduction in mortality rates due to decreasing winter mortality. This effect is most pronounced for cardiovascular mortality in elderly people in cities which experience temperate or cold climates at present. The sensitivity of the results to physiological and socio-economical adaptation is examined. However, more research is necessary to extend this work by inclusion of data from a wider range of populations.}, }
@article {pmid9452414, year = {1998}, author = {Patz, JA and Martens, WJ and Focks, DA and Jetten, TH}, title = {Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {106}, number = {3}, pages = {147-153}, pmid = {9452414}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Aedes ; Animals ; *Climate ; Dengue/*epidemiology/*transmission/virology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Flavivirus ; Humans ; Insect Vectors ; Mexico ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {Climate factors influence the transmission of dengue fever, the world's most widespread vector-borne virus. We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on dengue transmission using computer-based simulation analysis to link temperature output from three climate general circulation models (GCMs) to a dengue vectorial capacity equation. Our outcome measure, epidemic potential, is the reciprocal of the critical mosquito density threshold of the vectorial capacity equation. An increase in epidemic potential indicates that a smaller number of mosquitoes can maintain a state of endemicity of disease where dengue virus is introduced. Baseline climate data for comparison are from 1931 to 1980. Among the three GCMs, the average projected temperature elevation was 1.16 degrees C, expected by the year 2050. All three GCMs projected a temperature-related increase in potential seasonal transmission in five selected cities, as well as an increase in global epidemic potential, with the largest area change occurring in temperate regions. For regions already at risk, the aggregate epidemic potential across the three scenarios rose on average between 31 and 47% (range, 24-74%). If climate change occurs, as many climatologists believe, this will increase the epidemic potential of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, given viral introduction and susceptible human populations. Our risk assessment suggests that increased incidence may first occur in regions bordering endemic zones in latitude or altitude. Endemic locations may be at higher risk from hemorrhagic dengue if transmission intensity increases.}, }
@article {pmid9402761, year = {1997}, author = {Smith, R}, title = {Climate change: decision time in Kyoto.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {315}, number = {7119}, pages = {1326}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.315.7119.1326}, pmid = {9402761}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {*Climate ; Decision Making ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid9353511, year = {1997}, author = {Haines, A and McMichael, AJ}, title = {Climate change and health: implications for research, monitoring, and policy.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {315}, number = {7112}, pages = {870-874}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.315.7112.870}, pmid = {9353511}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Environmental Health ; Epidemiologic Methods ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Research Design ; *Risk Assessment ; }, }
@article {pmid9345177, year = {1997}, author = {McMichael, AJ and Haines, A}, title = {Global climate change: the potential effects on health.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {315}, number = {7111}, pages = {805-809}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.315.7111.805}, pmid = {9345177}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Environmental Health ; Food Supply ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Infections/etiology ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid9345163, year = {1997}, author = {Read, C and Stott, R}, title = {Climate change--thinking widely, working locally, acting personally.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {315}, number = {7111}, pages = {758-759}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.315.7111.758}, pmid = {9345163}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {*Climate ; Economics ; Environmental Health ; Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid9332016, year = {1997}, author = {Post, E and Stenseth, NC and Langvatn, R and Fromentin, JM}, title = {Global climate change and phenotypic variation among red deer cohorts.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {264}, number = {1386}, pages = {1317-1324}, pmid = {9332016}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Animals ; Body Weight ; Bone and Bones/anatomy &amp; histology ; *Climate ; Deer/*anatomy &amp; histology/growth &amp; development/physiology ; Female ; Fertility ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; Mandible/anatomy &amp; histology ; Norway ; Phenotype ; Pregnancy ; Seasons ; }, abstract = {The variability of two fitness-related phenotypic traits (body weight and a mandibular skeletal ratio) was analysed among cohorts and age-classes of red deer in Norway. Phenotypic variation among cohorts was pronounced for calves, yearlings and reproductively mature adults. Fluctuations in cohort-specific mean body weights and skeletal ratios of adults correlated with global climatic variation in winter conditions influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation while cohorts were in utero. Red deer born following warm winters were smaller than those born after cold winters, and this inter-cohort variability persisted into adulthood. Phenotypic variation among cohorts of red deer influenced by climate change may pose consequences for fitness of cohorts since body size and condition contribute to reproductive success and survival in male and female red deer. In particular, the recent trend of increasingly warm winters in northern Europe and Scandinavia may lead to reduced body size and fecundity of red deer, and perhaps other ungulates, in those areas.}, }
@article {pmid9315039, year = {1997}, author = {Bradley, DJ}, title = {From chilly summer afternoons to global warming. Climate as a determinant of human disease.}, journal = {Tropical medicine &amp; international health : TM &amp; IH}, volume = {2}, number = {9}, pages = {823-824}, doi = {10.1046/j.1365-3156.1997.d01-414.x}, pmid = {9315039}, issn = {1360-2276}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/*etiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Seasons ; Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid9236287, year = {1997}, author = {Pleune, R}, title = {The Importance of Contexts in Strategies of Environmental Organizations with Regard to Climate Change.}, journal = {Environmental management}, volume = {21}, number = {5}, pages = {733-745}, doi = {10.1007/s002679900063}, pmid = {9236287}, issn = {1432-1009}, abstract = {/ The purpose of the study was to investigate the extent to which strategies of environmental organizations depend on contexts. I examined this dependence by analyzing the strategies of five environmental organizations in the Netherlands with regard to climate change. These strategies were investigated over time and compared with the strategies these organizations had used in relation to ozone depletion and acidification. The results indicate that several of the organizations changed their strategies with respect to climate change over time. Furthermore, different strategies were used simultaneously in relation to the three problems. The findings suggest that strategies concerning climate change were to a considerable extent determined by the dominant framing of the problem in society. This framing was defined mainly by actors other than environmental organizations. The initial framing of climate change as a CO2 problem, which brought the issue into the energy debate, as well as the more general definition of the problem in the late 1980s as a greenhouse problem, were very important for determining the strategies of the organizations. It can be concluded that strategies of Dutch environmental organizations with regard to climate change were strongly dependent on the context.KEY WORDS: Environmental organization; Strategy; Climate change; Man-nature relationship; Problem definition; Context}, }
@article {pmid11607742, year = {1997}, author = {Lindzen, RS}, title = {Can increasing carbon dioxide cause climate change?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {94}, number = {16}, pages = {8335-8342}, pmid = {11607742}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {The realistic physical functioning of the greenhouse effect is reviewed, and the role of dynamic transport and water vapor is identified. Model errors and uncertainties are quantitatively compared with the forcing due to doubling CO2, and they are shown to be too large for reliable model evaluations of climate sensitivities. The possibility of directly measuring climate sensitivity is reviewed. A direct approach using satellite data to relate changes in globally averaged radiative flux changes at the top of the atmosphere to naturally occurring changes in global mean temperature is described. Indirect approaches to evaluating climate sensitivity involving the response to volcanic eruptions and Eocene climate change are also described. Finally, it is explained how, in principle, a climate that is insensitive to gross radiative forcing as produced by doubling CO2 might still be able to undergo major changes of the sort associated with ice ages and equable climates.}, }
@article {pmid11607739, year = {1997}, author = {Wigley, TM and Jones, PD and Raper, SC}, title = {The observed global warming record: what does it tell us?.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {94}, number = {16}, pages = {8314-8320}, pmid = {11607739}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {Global, near-surface temperature data sets and their derivations are discussed, and differences between the Jones and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change data sets are explained. Global-mean temperature changes are then interpreted in terms of anthropogenic forcing influences and natural variability. The inclusion of aerosol forcing improves the fit between modeled and observed changes but does not improve the agreement between the implied climate sensitivity value and the standard model-based range of 1.5-4.5 degrees C equilibrium warming for a CO2 doubling. The implied sensitivity goes from below the model-based range of estimates to substantially above this range. The addition of a solar forcing effect further improves the fit and brings the best-fit sensitivity into the middle of the model-based range. Consistency is further improved when internally generated changes are considered. This consistency, however, hides many uncertainties that surround observed data/model comparisons. These uncertainties make it impossible currently to use observed global-scale temperature changes to narrow the uncertainty range in the climate sensitivity below that estimated directly from climate models.}, }
@article {pmid11607737, year = {1997}, author = {Boyle, EA}, title = {Characteristics of the deep ocean carbon system during the past 150,000 years: SigmaCO2 distributions, deep water flow patterns, and abrupt climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {94}, number = {16}, pages = {8300-8307}, pmid = {11607737}, issn = {0027-8424}, abstract = {Studies of carbon isotopes and cadmium in bottom-dwelling foraminifera from ocean sediment cores have advanced our knowledge of ocean chemical distributions during the late Pleistocene. Last Glacial Maximum data are consistent with a persistent high-SigmaCO2 state for eastern Pacific deep water. Both tracers indicate that the mid-depth North and tropical Atlantic Ocean almost always has lower SigmaCO2 levels than those in the Pacific. Upper waters of the Last Glacial Maximum Atlantic are more SigmaCO2-depleted and deep waters are SigmaCO2-enriched compared with the waters of the present. In the northern Indian Ocean, delta13C and Cd data are consistent with upper water SigmaCO2 depletion relative to the present. There is no evident proximate source of this SigmaCO2-depleted water, so I suggest that SigmaCO2-depleted North Atlantic intermediate/deep water turns northward around the southern tip of Africa and moves toward the equator as a western boundary current. At long periods (>15,000 years), Milankovitch cycle variability is evident in paleochemical time series. But rapid millennial-scale variability can be seen in cores from high accumulation rate series. Atlantic deep water chemical properties are seen to change in as little as a few hundred years or less. An extraordinary new 52.7-m-long core from the Bermuda Rise contains a faithful record of climate variability with century-scale resolution. Sediment composition can be linked in detail with the isotope stage 3 interstadials recorded in Greenland ice cores. This new record shows at least 12 major climate fluctuations within marine isotope stage 5 (about 70,000-130,000 years before the present).}, }
@article {pmid11607733, year = {1997}, author = {Munk, WH}, title = {Tribute to Roger Revelle and his contribution to studies of carbon dioxide and climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {94}, number = {16}, pages = {8275-8279}, pmid = {11607733}, issn = {0027-8424}, }
@article {pmid11607732, year = {1997}, author = {Keeling, CD}, title = {Climate change and carbon dioxide: an introduction.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {94}, number = {16}, pages = {8273-8274}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.94.16.8273}, pmid = {11607732}, issn = {0027-8424}, }
@article {pmid9406290, year = {1997}, author = {Hales, S and Weinstein, P and Woodward, A}, title = {Public health impacts of global climate change.}, journal = {Reviews on environmental health}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {191-199}, doi = {10.1515/reveh.1997.12.3.191}, pmid = {9406290}, issn = {0048-7554}, mesh = {Adult ; Agriculture ; Animals ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; *Climate ; Disease Vectors ; *Ecosystem ; *Epidemiology ; Humans ; Infant ; Models, Biological ; Social Change ; }, abstract = {The potential health impacts of climate change are wide-ranging, from direct impacts at familiar local scales, through indirect effects occurring at the regional or ecosystem level, to long term effects on the sustainability of global systems. To assess these potential impacts, there is a need to broaden the scope of health impact assessment. Eco-epidemiology is emerging as a response to this need. Eco-epidemiology entails a shift in focus: from direct (toxicological) to indirect (ecological) mechanisms; and from effects occurring at 'human' temporal and geographical scales to those at regional and geophysical scales. We discuss the potential health impacts of climate change on each scale. At the global scale, interactions and feedbacks between systems are critical determinants of long term outcomes. From an eco-epidemiological perspective, the study of climate change becomes inseparable from the study of global change more generally.}, }
@article {pmid9115200, year = {1997}, author = {Edwards, RL and Cheng, H and Murrell, MT and Goldstein, SJ}, title = {Protactinium-231 Dating of Carbonates by Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry: Implications for Quaternary Climate Change.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {276}, number = {5313}, pages = {782-786}, doi = {10.1126/science.276.5313.782}, pmid = {9115200}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Measurement of protactinium-231 (231Pa) in carbonates by thermal ionization mass spectroscopy yields 231Pa ages that are more than 10 times more precise than those determined by decay counting. Carbonates between 10 and 250,000 years old can now be dated with 231Pa methods. Barbados corals that have identical 231Pa and thorium-230 (230Th) ages indicate that the timing of sea level change over parts of the last glacial cycle is consistent with the predictions of the Astronomical Theory. Two Devils Hole calcite subsamples record identical 231Pa and 230Th ages, suggesting that the chronology of this climate record is accurate.}, }
@article {pmid9054350, year = {1997}, author = {Harris, RN and Chapman, DS}, title = {Borehole Temperatures and a Baseline for 20th-Century Global Warming Estimates.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {275}, number = {5306}, pages = {1618-1621}, doi = {10.1126/science.275.5306.1618}, pmid = {9054350}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Lack of a 19th-century baseline temperature against which 20th-century warming can be referenced constitutes a deficiency in understanding recent climate change. Combination of borehole temperature profiles, which contain a memory of surface temperature changes in previous centuries, with the meteorological archive of surface air temperatures can provide a 19th-century baseline temperature tied to the current observational record. A test case in Utah, where boreholes are interspersed with meteorological stations belonging to the Historical Climatological Network, yields a noise reduction in estimates of 20th-century warming and a baseline temperature that is 0.6&amp;deg; ± 0.1&amp;deg;C below the 1951 to 1970 mean temperature for the region.}, }
@article {pmid9509631, year = {1997}, author = {Martens, WJ and Slooff, R and Jackson, EK}, title = {Climate change, human health, and sustainable development.}, journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization}, volume = {75}, number = {6}, pages = {583-588}, pmid = {9509631}, issn = {0042-9686}, mesh = {*Climate ; Ecosystem ; *Global Health ; Greenhouse Effect ; Health Resources ; Health Status Indicators ; Humans ; Policy Making ; }, abstract = {Human-induced climate change threatens ecosystems and human health on a global scale. In order to withstand the worldwide threats to ecosystems, the concept of sustainable development was introduced during the 1980s. Since then, this concept has been widely applied to guide and focus policy-making. The present article reviews the health consequences of human-induced climate change on sustainable development, particularly the potential impact of such change of food supply, natural disasters, infectious diseases, ecosystems, and sea level rise. Discussed is an integrated model containing the key indicators of sustainable development. The relevance of climate change, human health, and sustainable development for international climate change policy is also examined.}, }
@article {pmid9272010, year = {1997}, author = {Lacroix, D}, title = {Conference review--climate change and human health in the Asia-Pacific. Canberra, September 23-24, 1996.}, journal = {Collegian (Royal College of Nursing, Australia)}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {40}, doi = {10.1016/s1322-7696(08)60209-7}, pmid = {9272010}, issn = {1322-7696}, mesh = {Asia ; *Climate ; *Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Pacific Ocean ; }, }
@article {pmid9074886, year = {1997}, author = {Kalkstein, LS and Greene, JS}, title = {An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {105}, number = {1}, pages = {84-93}, pmid = {9074886}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Aged ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Mortality/*trends ; Seasons ; United States/epidemiology ; Urban Population ; *Weather ; }, abstract = {A new air mass-based synoptic procedure is used to evaluate climate/mortality relationships as they presently exist and to estimate how a predicted global warming might alter these values. Forty-four large U.S. cities with metropolitan areas exceeding 1 million in population are analyzed. Sharp increases in mortality are noted in summer for most cities in the East and Midwest when two particular air masses are present. A very warm air mass of maritime origin is most important in the eastern United States, which when present can increase daily mortality by as many as 30 deaths in large cities. A hot, dry air mass is important in many cities, and, although rare in the East, can increase daily mortality by up to 50 deaths. Cities in the South and Southwest show lesser weather/mortality relationships in summer. During winter, air mass-induced increases in mortality are considerably less than in summer. Although daily winter mortality is usually higher than summer, the causes of death that are responsible for most winter mortality do not vary much with temperature. Using models that estimate climate change for the years 2020 and 2050, it is estimated that summer mortality will increase dramatically and winter mortality will decrease slightly, even if people acclimatize to the increased warmth. Thus, a sizable net increase in weather-related mortality is estimated if the climate warms as the models predict.}, }
@article {pmid9063304, year = {1997}, author = {Jones, JS}, title = {Climate change and human health.}, journal = {South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde}, volume = {87}, number = {1}, pages = {13-14}, pmid = {9063304}, issn = {0256-9574}, mesh = {Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health ; Humans ; South Africa/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid9133338, year = {1996}, author = {Takahashi, Y and Kawashima, S and Aikawa, S}, title = {[Effects of global climate change on Japanese cedar pollen concentration in air--estimated results obtained from Yamagata City and its surrounding area].}, journal = {Arerugi = [Allergy]}, volume = {45}, number = {12}, pages = {1270-1276}, pmid = {9133338}, issn = {0021-4884}, mesh = {Air Pollution/*analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Japan ; *Pollen ; Trees ; }, abstract = {The effects of global warming on Japanese cedar pollen concentration in air were examined. There was a significant increase in total pollen count in years where small or average values of pollen dispersion were observed and where summertime temperatures were postulated to have risen from 2 to 5 degrees C. There were no remarkable differences in total pollen count in years where large values of pollen dispersion were observed. On the other hand, a drastic decrease in total pollen count was expected when summertime temperatures were postulated to have dropped from 2 to 5 degrees C. A major factor controlled the value of total pollen count was examined by use of a simulation method of airborne Cryptomeria japonica pollen. The values of total pollen count mainly controlled by the amount of male flower at basins and in Japanese cedar forested areas, and the manner in which plains isolated from pollen sources are considered in part to be subjected to meteorological conditions. The difference of initiation time of the pollen season has no great influence on the values of total pollen count.}, }
@article {pmid9039269, year = {1996}, author = {Lindsay, SW and Birley, MH}, title = {Climate change and malaria transmission.}, journal = {Annals of tropical medicine and parasitology}, volume = {90}, number = {6}, pages = {573-588}, doi = {10.1080/00034983.1996.11813087}, pmid = {9039269}, issn = {0003-4983}, mesh = {Animals ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Vectors ; Malaria/*transmission ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Risk Factors ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {There is a consensus among climatologists that our planet is experiencing a progressive rise in surface temperature due to the increased production of "greenhouse" gases. Some of the possible consequences of elevated temperature on malaria transmission are examined in the present review. A simple mathematical model is first used to examine the effect of temperature on the ability of Anopheles maculipennis to transmit vivax malaria. This indicates that small increases in temperature at low temperatures may increase the risk of transmission substantially. This is important, since vulnerable communities, poorly protected by health services, in areas of unstable or no malaria are likely to be at increased risk of future outbreaks. In contrast, areas of stable transmission may be little affected by rising temperature. It is thought that global warming will lead to coastal flooding, changes in precipitation and, indirectly, changes in land use. Just how these changes will effect transmission at a regional level requires an understanding of the ecology of local vectors, since environmental changes which favour malaria transmission in one vector species may reduce it in another. Methods for predicting future changes in malaria in different regions are discussed, highlighting the need for further research in this area. Most importantly, there is a need for researchers to validate the accuracy of the models used for predicting malaria and to confirm the assumptions on which the models are based.}, }
@article {pmid8910268, year = {1996}, author = {Sarmiento, JL and Le Qu&amp;eacute;r&amp;eacute; C, }, title = {Oceanic Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Model of Century-Scale Global Warming.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {274}, number = {5291}, pages = {1346-1350}, doi = {10.1126/science.274.5291.1346}, pmid = {8910268}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {In a model of ocean-atmosphere interaction that excluded biological processes, the oceanic uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) was substantially reduced in scenarios involving global warming relative to control scenarios. The primary reason for the reduced uptake was the weakening or collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation. Such a large reduction in this ocean uptake would have a major impact on the future growth rate of atmospheric CO2. Model simulations that include a simple representation of biological processes show a potentially large offsetting effect resulting from the downward flux of biogenic carbon. However, the magnitude of the offset is difficult to quantify with present knowledge.}, }
@article {pmid8945117, year = {1996}, author = {Smith, M}, title = {Climate change and your health.}, journal = {Australian nursing journal (July 1993)}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {20-23}, pmid = {8945117}, issn = {1320-3185}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Education ; *Health Status ; Humans ; *Nurses ; Ozone/adverse effects ; Sunlight/adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid8885165, year = {1996}, author = {Wilkinson, M and Grover, MJ}, title = {Climate change and the threat from infection.}, journal = {Trends in microbiology}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {340-341}, doi = {10.1016/0966-842x(96)30027-9}, pmid = {8885165}, issn = {0966-842X}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Communicable Diseases ; Diphtheria/epidemiology ; Greenhouse Effect ; Malaria/epidemiology ; Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/epidemiology ; }, }
@article {pmid8774604, year = {1996}, author = {Reiter, P}, title = {Global warming and mosquito-borne disease in USA.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {348}, number = {9027}, pages = {622}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(05)64844-1}, pmid = {8774604}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Animals ; *Culicidae ; Demography ; Dengue/history/transmission ; *Greenhouse Effect ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; Humans ; *Insect Vectors ; Malaria/history/transmission ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid8898476, year = {1996}, author = {Amofah, GK}, title = {Global warming and health: a review.}, journal = {East African medical journal}, volume = {73}, number = {8}, pages = {560-562}, pmid = {8898476}, issn = {0012-835X}, mesh = {*Developing Countries ; *Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, abstract = {The paper looks at the phenomenon of global warming and its potential health effects and outlines a number of plausible response by the health sector in developing countries to its threat. It suggests that the health sector should facilitate an international effort at addressing this challenge, mainly through advocacy, epidemiological surveillance and awareness creation.}, }
@article {pmid8780449, year = {1996}, author = {Bouma, MJ and Dye, C and van der Kaay, HJ}, title = {Falciparum malaria and climate change in the northwest frontier province of Pakistan.}, journal = {The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {131-137}, doi = {10.4269/ajtmh.1996.55.131}, pmid = {8780449}, issn = {0002-9637}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles ; *Climate ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Humidity ; Incidence ; Insect Vectors ; Malaria, Falciparum/*epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Malaria, Vivax/epidemiology ; Mosquito Control/methods ; Multivariate Analysis ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; Rain ; Regression Analysis ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Following a striking increase in the severity of autumnal outbreaks of Plasmodium falciparum during the last decade in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan, the role of climatologic variables was investigated. A multivariate analysis showed that during the transmission season of P. falciparum, the amount of rainfall in September and October, the temperature in November and December, and the humidity in December were all correlated (r2 = 0.82) with two measures of P. falciparum, the falciparum rate (percent of slides examined positive for P. falciparum) since 1981 and the annual P. falciparum proportion (percent of all malaria infections diagnosed as P. falciparum) since 1978. Climatologic records since 1876 show an increase in mean November and December temperatures by 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C, respectively, and in October rainfall. Mean humidity in December has also been increasing since 1950. These climatologic changes in the area appear to have made conditions for transmission of P. falciparum more favorable, and may account for the increase in incidence observed in the NWFP in recent years.}, }
@article {pmid8696182, year = {1996}, author = {Godlee, F}, title = {Climate change: not a threat but a promise.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {313}, number = {7051}, pages = {184}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.313.7051.184}, pmid = {8696182}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {Attitude ; *Climate ; Environmental Pollution ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid8841757, year = {1996}, author = {Cross, ER and Hyams, KC}, title = {The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in southwest Asia.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {104}, number = {7}, pages = {724-727}, pmid = {8841757}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Animals ; Asia ; Computer Simulation ; Discriminant Analysis ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Insect Vectors/*physiology ; Phlebotomus/*physiology ; Phlebotomus Fever/transmission ; *Seasons ; }, abstract = {The distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia is thought to be highly dependent on temperature and relative humidity. A discriminant analysis model based on weather data and reported vector surveys was developed to predict the seasonal and geographic distribution of P. papatasi in this region. To simulate global warming, temperature values for 115 weather stations were increased by 1 degree C, 3 degrees C, and 5 degrees C, and the outcome variable coded as unknown in the model. Probability of occurrence values were then predicted for each location with a weather station. Stations with positive probability of occurrence values for May, June, July, and August were considered locations where two or more life cycles of P. papatasi could occur and which could support endemic transmission of leishmaniasis and sandfly fever. Among 115 weather stations, 71 (62%) would be considered endemic with current temperature conditions; 14 (12%) additional stations could become endemic with an increase of 1 degree C; 17 (15%) more with a 3 degrees C increase; and 12 (10%) more (all but one station) with a 5 degrees C increase. In addition to increased geographic distribution, seasonality of disease transmission could be extended throughout 12 months of the year in 7 (6%) locations with at least a 3 degrees C rise in temperature and in 29 (25%) locations with a 5 degrees C rise.}, }
@article {pmid8662476, year = {1996}, author = {Mayewski, PA and Twickler, MS and Whitlow, SI and Meeker, LD and Yang, Q and Thomas, J and Kreutz, K and Grootes, PM and Morse, DL and Steig, EJ and Waddington, ED and Saltzman, ES and Whung, P and Taylor, KC}, title = {Climate Change During the Last Deglaciation in Antarctica.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {272}, number = {5268}, pages = {1636-1638}, doi = {10.1126/science.272.5268.1636}, pmid = {8662476}, issn = {1095-9203}, abstract = {Greenland ice core records provide clear evidence of rapid changes in climate in a variety of climate indicators. In this work, rapid climate change events in the Northern and Southern hemispheres are compared on the basis of an examination of changes in atmospheric circulation developed from two ice cores. High-resolution glaciochemical series, covering the period 10,000 to 16,000 years ago, from a central Greenland ice core and a new site in east Antarctica display similar variability. These findings suggest that rapid climate change events occur more frequently in Antarctica than previously demonstrated.}, }
@article {pmid8693163, year = {1996}, author = {McKone, TE and Daniels, JI and Goldman, M}, title = {Uncertainties in the link between global climate change and predicted health risks from pollution: hexachlorobenzene (HCB) case study using a fugacity model.}, journal = {Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {377-393}, doi = {10.1111/j.1539-6924.1996.tb01472.x}, pmid = {8693163}, issn = {0272-4332}, mesh = {Biometry ; Chemical Phenomena ; Chemistry, Physical ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; Fungicides, Industrial/adverse effects/chemistry ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hexachlorobenzene/adverse effects/chemistry ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Public Health ; Risk Assessment ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Industrial societies have altered the earth's environment in ways that could have important, longterm ecological, economic, and health implications. In this paper, we examine the extent to which uncertainty about global climate change could impact the precision of predictions of secondary outcomes such as health impacts of pollution. Using a model that links global climate change with predictions of chemical exposure and human health risk in the Western region of the United States of America (U.S.), we define parameter variabilities and uncertainties and we characterize the resulting outcome variance. As a case study, we consider the public health consequences from releases of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), a ubiquitous multimedia pollutant. By constructing a matrix that links global environmental change both directly and indirectly to potential human-health effects attributable to HCB released into air, soil, and water, we define critical parameter variances in the health risk estimation process. We employ a combined uncertainty/sensitivity analysis to investigate how HCB releases are affected by increasing atmospheric temperature and the accompanying climate alterations that are anticipated. We examine how such uncertainty impacts both the expected magnitude and calculational precision of potential human exposures and health effects. This assessment reveals that uncertain temperature increases of up to 5 degrees C have little impact on either the magnitude or precision of the public-health consequences estimated under existing climate variations for HCB released into air and water in the Western region of the U.S.}, }
@article {pmid8667392, year = {1996}, author = {Mogi, M}, title = {Overwintering strategies of mosquitoes (Diptera:Culicidae) on warmer islands may predict impact of global warming on Kyushu, Japan.}, journal = {Journal of medical entomology}, volume = {33}, number = {3}, pages = {438-444}, doi = {10.1093/jmedent/33.3.438}, pmid = {8667392}, issn = {0022-2585}, mesh = {Aedes ; Animals ; Cold Temperature ; Culicidae/classification/*physiology ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Japan ; Larva ; Seasons ; *Temperature ; }, abstract = {Mosquito overwintering was studied on Tanegashima and Yakushima, islands south of Kyushu, to predict the impact of global warming on northern Kyushu where mosquitoes overwinter in diapause. On Tanegashima and Yakushima, the following 5 types of overwintering strategies were recognized: (1) continued reproduction without diapause (2 Anopheles spp., 2 Culex spp., 2 Aedes spp.); (2) diapausing female adults but a few adults from late-developing larvae may emerge in midwinter (2 Anopheles spp. and 9 culex spp.); (3) diapausing eggs but a few adults may emerge in midwinter (5 Aedes spp.); (4) diapausing larvae (1 Orthopodomyia sp., 1 Aedes sp., 1 Armigeres sp., 1 Uranotaenia sp., 1 Toxorhynchites sp.); and (5) diapausing eggs and larvae (1 Tripteroides sp.). Few females of 4 aedine species were collected while seeking hosts in midwinter, but neither larvae nor adults of Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles or southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, were found during this survey. The 5 degrees C increase in the midwinter mean temperature in northern Kyushu probably will not produce serious mosquito problems directly, but the proximity of the subtropical regions may have significant effects through dispersal of adult mosquitoes.}, }
@article {pmid8667382, year = {1996}, author = {Jetten, TH and Martens, WJ and Takken, W}, title = {Model stimulations to estimate malaria risk under climate change.}, journal = {Journal of medical entomology}, volume = {33}, number = {3}, pages = {361-371}, doi = {10.1093/jmedent/33.3.361}, pmid = {8667382}, issn = {0022-2585}, mesh = {Animals ; Anopheles ; *Climate ; *Computer Simulation ; Humans ; Insect Vectors ; Malaria, Falciparum/*epidemiology/transmission ; Mathematical Computing ; Plasmodium falciparum ; Risk ; Seasons ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {The current geographic range of malaria is much smaller than its potential range. In many regions there exists a phenomena characterized as "Anophelism without malaria." The vectors are present but malaria transmission does not occur. Vectorial capacity often has been used as a parameter to estimate the susceptibility of an area to malaria. Model computations with global climatological data show that a dynamic concept of vectorial capacity can be used as a comparative risk indicator to predict the current extent and distribution of malarious regions in the world. A sensitivity analysis done in 3 distinct geographic areas shows that the areas of largest change of epidemic potential caused by a temperature increase are those where mosquitoes already occur but where development of the parasite is limited by temperature. Computations with the model presented here predict, with different climate scenarios, an increased malaria risk in areas bordering malaria endemic regions and at higher altitudes within malarious regions under a temperature increase of 2-4 degrees C.}, }
@article {pmid8627586, year = {1996}, author = {Crombie, H}, title = {Climate change.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of Health}, volume = {116}, number = {2}, pages = {110-112}, doi = {10.1177/146642409611600211}, pmid = {8627586}, issn = {0264-0325}, mesh = {*Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Policy ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Temperature ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid8606659, year = {1996}, author = {Bryan, JH and Foley, DH and Sutherst, RW}, title = {Malaria transmission and climate change in Australia.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {164}, number = {6}, pages = {345-347}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.1996.tb122051.x}, pmid = {8606659}, issn = {0025-729X}, mesh = {Animals ; *Anopheles ; Australia ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Insect Vectors ; Malaria/*transmission ; }, abstract = {Although endemic malaria was eradicated from Australia by 1981, the vectors remain and transmission from imported cases still occurs. Climate modelling shows that global warming will enlarge the potential range of the main vector, Anopheles farauti sensu stricto; by the year 2030 it could extend along the Queensland coast to Gladstone, 800 km south of its present limit. Vigilance and a dispassionate assessment of risk are needed to meet this challenge.}, }
@article {pmid8799081, year = {1996}, author = {Blumer, C}, title = {Climate change and public health: our priorities.}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand journal of public health}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {103-104}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-842x.1996.tb01350.x}, pmid = {8799081}, issn = {1326-0200}, mesh = {Australia ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; *Public Health ; Social Problems ; }, }
@article {pmid8604175, year = {1996}, author = {Patz, JA and Epstein, PR and Burke, TA and Balbus, JM}, title = {Global climate change and emerging infectious diseases.}, journal = {JAMA}, volume = {275}, number = {3}, pages = {217-223}, pmid = {8604175}, issn = {0098-7484}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Communicable Diseases ; *Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Reservoirs ; Disease Susceptibility ; Disease Vectors ; *Ecosystem ; *Global Health ; Humans ; }, abstract = {Climatic factors influence the emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases, in addition to multiple human, biological, and ecological determinants. Climatologists have identified upward trends in global temperatures and now estimate an unprecedented rise of 2.0 degrees C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the introduction and dissemination of many serious infectious diseases. The incidence of mosquito-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue, and viral encephalitides, are among those diseases most sensitive to climate. Climate change would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the vector's geographic range and increasing reproductive and biting rates and by shortening the pathogen incubation period. Climate-related increases in sea surface temperature and sea level can lead to higher incidence of water-borne infectious and toxin-related illnesses, such as cholera and shellfish poisoning. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. Human susceptibility to infections might be further compounded by malnutrition due to climate stress on agriculture and potential alterations in the human immune system caused by increased flux of ultraviolet radiation. Analyzing the role of climate in the emergence of human infectious diseases will require interdisciplinary cooperation among physicians, climatologists, biologists, and social scientists. Increased disease surveillance, integrated modeling, and use of geographically based data systems will afford more anticipatory measures by the medical community. Understanding the linkages between climatological and ecological change as determinants of disease emergence and redistribution will ultimately help optimize preventive strategies.}, }
@article {pmid8538543, year = {1995}, author = {Jackson, EK}, title = {Climate change and global infectious disease threats.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {163}, number = {11-12}, pages = {570-574}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.1995.tb124754.x}, pmid = {8538543}, issn = {0025-729X}, mesh = {Australia/epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Demography ; Disease Outbreaks/*statistics &amp; numerical data ; Drug Resistance, Microbial ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; World Health Organization ; }, abstract = {The world's climate is warming up and, while debate continues about how much change we can expect, it is becoming clear that even small changes in climate can have major effects on the spread of disease. Erwin K Jackson, a member of Greenpeace International's Climate Impacts Unit and a delegate to the 11th session of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Rome, 11-15 December), reviews the scientific evidence of this new global threat to health.}, }
@article {pmid8747011, year = {1995}, author = {}, title = {Consequences of climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {103}, number = {12}, pages = {1085-1086}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.103-1519249}, pmid = {8747011}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; }, }
@article {pmid8616191, year = {1995}, author = {Hales, S and Woodward, A and Guest, C}, title = {Climate change in the South Pacific region: priorities for public health research.}, journal = {Australian journal of public health}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {543-545}, doi = {10.1111/j.1753-6405.1995.tb00455.x}, pmid = {8616191}, issn = {1035-7319}, mesh = {Australia ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Priorities ; Humans ; Pacific Islands ; *Public Health ; Systems Analysis ; }, }
@article {pmid7500718, year = {1995}, author = {Lindgren, E}, title = {[Global climate change on the way. Warning signals at an international meeting].}, journal = {Lakartidningen}, volume = {92}, number = {47}, pages = {4462-4464}, pmid = {7500718}, issn = {0023-7205}, mesh = {*Climate ; Disasters ; District of Columbia ; *Environmental Health ; Environmental Illness/epidemiology/prevention &amp; control ; Environmental Pollution ; *Global Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid8530209, year = {1995}, author = {Bentham, G and Langford, IH}, title = {Climate change and the incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {39}, number = {2}, pages = {81-86}, pmid = {8530209}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; *Climate ; England/epidemiology ; Food Microbiology ; Foodborne Diseases/*epidemiology ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Temperature ; Wales/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {In recent years there have been several spells of high temperatures providing analogues for the conditions that might become more common as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Statistical models were developed of the relationship between the monthly incidence of food poisoning and temperatures and these were then used to provide estimates of the possible effects of future warmer summers. Routinely collected data on the number of reported cases of food poisoning were analysed for the years 1982-1991. Regression analysis was used to establish the relationship between the monthly of food poisoning and temperatures of the same and the previous month. Published scenarios for future temperatures were applied to these statistical models to provide estimates of the possible impacts of warmer conditions. The monthly incidence of food poisoning was found to be significantly associated with the temperature of the same and of the previous month with the latter having the stronger effect. Using published data on the relationship between reported and actual numbers of cases of food poisoning, it is estimated that annually there might be an additional 179 000 cases of food poisoning by the year 2050 as a result of climate change. The observed relationship with the same month's temperature underlies the need for improvements in storage, preparation and hygiene close to the point of consumption. However, there was a much stronger relationship with the temperature of the previous month, indicating the importance of conditions earlier in the food production process. Improvements in areas such as animal husbandry and slaughtering may also be necessary to avoid the adverse effects of a warmer climate.}, }
@article {pmid8559119, year = {1995}, author = {Rowbotham, EJ}, title = {The climate change convention and human health.}, journal = {Medicine and war}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {214-222}, doi = {10.1080/07488009508409241}, pmid = {8559119}, issn = {0748-8009}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Morbidity/*trends ; }, abstract = {The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed at Rio in June 1992, is intended to minimize climate change and its impact. Much of its text is ambiguous and it is not specifically directed to health considerations. It is, however, recognized that adverse effects of climate change on health are a concern of humankind, and health is an integral part of the Convention. The Convention includes commitments by the developed countries to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to increase public awareness of these commitments. The significance of the Convention in these respects is discussed critically and future developments considered.}, }
@article {pmid8559118, year = {1995}, author = {Martens, WJ}, title = {Climate change and malaria: exploring the risks.}, journal = {Medicine and war}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {202-213}, doi = {10.1080/07488009508409240}, pmid = {8559118}, issn = {0748-8009}, mesh = {Animals ; Culicidae/parasitology ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Malaria/prevention &amp; control/*transmission ; Models, Biological ; Mosquito Control/trends ; Risk Factors ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {That the enhanced greenhouse effect may prove to influence human health will come as no surprise. One of the potential health consequences is a change in distribution patterns of vector-borne diseases. In tropical countries, such diseases are a major cause of illness and death. One of the most important vector-borne diseases in the world is malaria, which is associated with one of four species of parasite and transmitted by a mosquito vector. Climatic conditions, and temperature in particular, directly influence mosquito development, feeding-frequency and longevity of the mosquito, as well as the time in which the parasite develops inside the mosquito. Other environmental factors such as vegetation and breeding sites are indirectly influenced by climate conditions. In order to assess the impact of an anthropogenic climate change on the transmission of malaria, an integrated assessment model has been developed. In this integrated model, the direct effects of a change in temperature and precipitation on the transmission potential of a mosquito population is assessed by means of the vectorial capacity. The effect of a human-induced climate change on human health is evaluated by assessing the change in malaria prevalence and disease burden. A sustainable development index, which is an aggregate of an environmental pressure indicator, a health indicator and a socio-economic development indicator is introduced and discussed. Such an index can be used to determine whether future projections are sustainable.}, }
@article {pmid8559117, year = {1995}, author = {McMichael, AJ}, title = {Conceptual and methodological challenges in predicting the health impacts of climate change.}, journal = {Medicine and war}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {195-201}, doi = {10.1080/07488009508409239}, pmid = {8559117}, issn = {0748-8009}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environmental Monitoring ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Morbidity/*trends ; Population Dynamics ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Describing (not to mention quantifying) the anticipated adverse health impacts of global climate change poses basic challenges to biomedical science. First and foremost, it is beset with uncertainties and complexities; it is necessarily an 'If-Then' exercise, that takes as given climatologists' estimates of the plausible range of greenhouse-induced climate change over the coming century. The health impacts of climate change would generally not occur via the familiar direct-acting mechanisms that characterise local environmentally-induced toxicology or pathophysiology; therefore they would lack the mechanistic directness-of-effect that epidemiological research methods are best equipped to study. Rather, the health impacts would occur on a larger scale, and would result predominantly from perturbations of natural biogeochemical systems that reduce Earth's capacity for life support. Therefore, scientists will need to address the assessment of impacts within an ecological framework, and with an unusually long time horizon. This assessment requires a new capacity for systems-based thinking, predictive modelling, and dealing with uncertainty. Scientists, policy-makers and general public will have to adjust to unfamiliar styles of 'anticipatory' science, with an unusual overlay of uncertainty and provisionality.}, }
@article {pmid8559116, year = {1995}, author = {Rowland, MG}, title = {Climate change and human health: possible communicable disease consequences in the United Kingdom.}, journal = {Medicine and war}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {188-194}, doi = {10.1080/07488009508409238}, pmid = {8559116}, issn = {0748-8009}, mesh = {*Climate ; Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases/*etiology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; United Kingdom ; }, abstract = {In May 1990 a 'Think Tank' was constituted in order to advise the Director of the Public Health Laboratory Service (PHLS) on the potential effects of global climatic change, and of world population increase and movements, on the epidemiology of infectious diseases internationally and in the United Kingdom, and to consider the implications for the PHLS. This article draws on the Think Tank deliberations and describes the scenario considered, and some of the major issues identified, with particular reference to the UK.}, }
@article {pmid8559115, year = {1995}, author = {Kovats, S and Haines, A}, title = {The potential health impacts of climate change: an overview.}, journal = {Medicine and war}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {168-178}, doi = {10.1080/07488009508409236}, pmid = {8559115}, issn = {0748-8009}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; *Climate ; Disease/*etiology ; Environmental Monitoring ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Heat Stress Disorders/*etiology ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {Climate change would have a range of impacts on human health. Health impacts would be caused by the direct effect of climatic factors on human health, such as heat stress, and possible changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as storms, floods and droughts. Impacts on health would also be mediated by the indirect effects of climate change, such as changes in availability of food and water and the distribution of vector-borne diseases. The majority of health impacts would be adverse and would depend greatly on the vulnerability of populations.}, }
@article {pmid7558409, year = {1995}, author = {McGregor, GR}, title = {The human bioclimates of Western and South Pacific islands and climate change.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {5-12}, pmid = {7558409}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Humidity ; Meteorological Concepts ; Pacific Islands ; Stress, Physiological ; Temperature ; *Tropical Climate ; }, abstract = {The current bioclimates of equatorial Western and tropical South Pacific have been assessed, using the concepts of effective temperature and relative strain as a basis for evaluating likely changes in human comfort regimes as a consequence of global warming. Current bioclimates may be considered marginally stressful for indigenous populations. Global warming will result in changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of physioclimatically stressful conditions.}, }
@article {pmid7761843, year = {1995}, author = {Schelling, TC}, title = {Global warming and health effects in the Third World.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {268}, number = {5215}, pages = {1264}, pmid = {7761843}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {*Developing Countries ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health Status ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid7667648, year = {1995}, author = {Curto de Casas, SI and Carcavallo, RU}, title = {Climate change and vector-borne diseases distribution.}, journal = {Social science &amp; medicine (1982)}, volume = {40}, number = {11}, pages = {1437-1440}, doi = {10.1016/0277-9536(95)00040-e}, pmid = {7667648}, issn = {0277-9536}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; *Disease Reservoirs ; *Disease Vectors ; Ecosystem ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Population Dynamics ; Risk Factors ; South America ; *Tropical Medicine ; }, }
@article {pmid7665763, year = {1995}, author = {Smith, JP}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on health.}, journal = {Journal of advanced nursing}, volume = {21}, number = {6}, pages = {1033}, doi = {10.1046/j.1365-2648.1995.21061033.x}, pmid = {7665763}, issn = {0309-2402}, mesh = {*Climate ; Developing Countries ; Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Health ; Humans ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid7656875, year = {1995}, author = {Martens, WJ and Niessen, LW and Rotmans, J and Jetten, TH and McMichael, AJ}, title = {Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {103}, number = {5}, pages = {458-464}, pmid = {7656875}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Animals ; Disease Outbreaks ; Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology/*etiology/transmission ; Models, Biological ; Plasmodium/growth &amp; development ; Risk Factors ; }, abstract = {The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities.}, }
@article {pmid7728052, year = {1995}, author = {Brown, P}, title = {Tropical diseases move north with global warming.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {310}, number = {6986}, pages = {1027-1028}, doi = {10.1136/bmj.310.6986.1027a}, pmid = {7728052}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {*Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Tropical Medicine/*trends ; }, }
@article {pmid7744529, year = {1995}, author = {Langford, IH and Bentham, G}, title = {The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales.}, journal = {International journal of biometeorology}, volume = {38}, number = {3}, pages = {141-147}, pmid = {7744529}, issn = {0020-7128}, mesh = {Cerebrovascular Disorders/mortality ; Cold Climate/*adverse effects ; England/epidemiology ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; *Mortality ; Myocardial Ischemia/mortality ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/mortality ; Seasons ; Wales/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.}, }
@article {pmid7863337, year = {1995}, author = {Stone, R}, title = {Global warming. If the mercury soars, so may health hazards.}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {267}, number = {5200}, pages = {957-958}, doi = {10.1126/science.7863337}, pmid = {7863337}, issn = {0036-8075}, mesh = {Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology/transmission ; Developing Countries ; Disease Outbreaks ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; Malaria/epidemiology/transmission ; Population Surveillance ; *Tropical Medicine ; Urban Health ; World Health Organization ; }, }
@article {pmid7840480, year = {1994}, author = {Tester, PA}, title = {Harmful marine phytoplankton and shellfish toxicity. Potential consequences of climate change.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {740}, number = {}, pages = {69-76}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.1994.tb19854.x}, pmid = {7840480}, issn = {0077-8923}, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Eutrophication ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Marine Toxins/*poisoning ; Phytoplankton/*chemistry/growth &amp; development ; *Shellfish Poisoning ; }, }
@article {pmid7840476, year = {1994}, author = {Epstein, PR}, title = {Framework for an integrated assessment of health, climate change, and ecosystem vulnerability.}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {740}, number = {}, pages = {423-435}, doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.1994.tb19903.x}, pmid = {7840476}, issn = {0077-8923}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Susceptibility ; *Ecosystem ; *Forecasting ; Humans ; }, }
@article {pmid8052608, year = {1994}, author = {Janzen, FJ}, title = {Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {91}, number = {16}, pages = {7487-7490}, pmid = {8052608}, issn = {0027-8424}, support = {GM-07197/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Climate ; Female ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Male ; Sex Differentiation/*physiology ; Sex Ratio ; Turtles/*physiology ; }, abstract = {Despite increasing concern over the possible impact of global temperature change, there is little empirical evidence of direct temperature effects on biotic interactions in natural systems. Clear assessment of the ecological and evolutionary impact of changing climatic temperature requires a natural system in which populations exhibit a direct unambiguous fitness response to thermal fluctuation. I monitored nests of a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) with temperature-dependent sex determination to investigate the causal relationship between local climatic variation in temperature and offspring sex ratio. Consistent with theoretical predictions, annual offspring sex ratio was highly correlated with mean July air temperature, validating concerns about the effect of climate change on population demography. This correlation implies that even modest increases in mean temperature (< 2 degrees C) may drastically skew the sex ratio. Statistical evaluation of the variance in climate change indicates that an increase in mean temperature of 4 degrees C would effectively eliminate production of male offspring. Quantitative genetic analyses and behavioral data suggest that populations with temperature-dependent sex determination may be unable to evolve rapidly enough to counteract the negative fitness consequences of rapid global temperature change. Populations of species with temperature-dependent sex determination may serve as ideal indicators of the biological impact of global temperature change.}, }
@article {pmid7910922, year = {1994}, author = {Bouma, MJ and Sondorp, HE and van der Kaay, HJ}, title = {Climate change and periodic epidemic malaria.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {343}, number = {8910}, pages = {1440}, doi = {10.1016/s0140-6736(94)92569-0}, pmid = {7910922}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {*Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Malaria/*epidemiology ; *Meteorological Concepts ; }, }
@article {pmid8593846, year = {1994}, author = {DeAngelis, T}, title = {Clinton's climate change action plan.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {102}, number = {5}, pages = {448-449}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.94102448}, pmid = {8593846}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Climate ; Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Politics ; Public Policy ; United States ; }, }
@article {pmid8593845, year = {1994}, author = {Alderson, L}, title = {Global climate change: turning the tide.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {102}, number = {5}, pages = {444-447}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.102-1567123}, pmid = {8593845}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Climate ; Economics ; Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Public Policy ; }, }
@article {pmid8593844, year = {1994}, author = {Breslin, K}, title = {Global climate change: beyond sunburn.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {102}, number = {5}, pages = {440-443}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.102-1567140}, pmid = {8593844}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Animals ; Cataract/etiology ; Climate ; Disease Vectors ; Ecosystem ; Environmental Health ; Food Supply ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; Immune System/radiation effects ; Neoplasms/etiology ; Respiratory System/radiation effects ; Stress, Physiological/etiology ; Sunburn/etiology ; Sunlight/adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid8593843, year = {1994}, author = {Manuel, J}, title = {Global climate change: predicting the weather.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {102}, number = {5}, pages = {436-439}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.94102436}, pmid = {8593843}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Climate ; Environmental Health ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid8057305, year = {1994}, author = {Reeves, WC and Hardy, JL and Reisen, WK and Milby, MM}, title = {Potential effect of global warming on mosquito-borne arboviruses.}, journal = {Journal of medical entomology}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {323-332}, doi = {10.1093/jmedent/31.3.323}, pmid = {8057305}, issn = {0022-2585}, support = {AI26154/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; AI3028/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; AI32939/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Arbovirus Infections/epidemiology/transmission ; Arboviruses/*isolation &amp; purification ; California/epidemiology ; Culex/*microbiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Encephalitis Virus, St. Louis/isolation &amp; purification ; Encephalitis Virus, Western Equine/isolation &amp; purification ; Female ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Insect Vectors/microbiology ; }, abstract = {If global warming occurs in California, daily mean temperatures may increase by 3 to 5 degrees C, precipitation patterns will change, and sea level may rise 1 m. Studies were done on effect of temperature changes on survival of Culex tarsalis Coquillett, the primary vector of western equine encephalomyelitis (WEE) and St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) viruses, in two regions where temperatures differed by 5 degrees C. Daily mortality of adult vectors increased by 1% for each 1 degree C increase in temperature. At 25 degrees C, only 5% of Cx. tarsalis survived for 8 or more days, the time required for extrinsic incubation of these viruses. Extrinsic incubation times for these viruses shortened when temperatures were increased from 18 to 25 degrees C. WEE virus infection was modulated and transmission decreased at 32 degrees C. If temperatures in the warmer region increase by 5 degrees C, WEE virus may disappear and SLE virus would persist. In the cooler region, a 5 degrees C increase would decrease vector survivorship and virus activity in midsummer. In North America, epidemics of WEE have prevailed above a 21 degrees C isotherm and those of SLE below this isotherm. With global warming, epidemics of these viruses could extend into currently unreceptive northern areas. WEE virus would disappear from more southern regions. Geographic distribution of vector, human, and animal populations could be altered. North America could become more receptive to invasion by tropical vectors and diseases.}, }
@article {pmid7905135, year = {1994}, author = {Last, J}, title = {Health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {343}, number = {8892}, pages = {304}, pmid = {7905135}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Canada ; *Environmental Health ; *Global Health ; *Health Priorities ; Humans ; *Patient Care Team ; Research ; }, }
@article {pmid7905134, year = {1994}, author = {Kroegel, C and Zedtwitz, A and Deibert, P and Häussinger, D and Gerok, W}, title = {Health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {343}, number = {8892}, pages = {303-304}, pmid = {7905134}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Beds ; Female ; Humans ; Immunocompromised Host/immunology ; Meningitis, Listeria/diagnosis/etiology/*immunology ; Middle Aged ; Opportunistic Infections/diagnosis/etiology/*immunology ; Ultraviolet Rays/*adverse effects ; }, }
@article {pmid7905133, year = {1994}, author = {Blumthaler, M and Ambach, W}, title = {Health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {343}, number = {8892}, pages = {303}, pmid = {7905133}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Austria/epidemiology ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; Epidemiological Monitoring ; Humans ; Ozone/*analysis ; Reference Values ; Seasons ; Sunburn/*epidemiology/etiology ; *Ultraviolet Rays ; }, }
@article {pmid7905132, year = {1994}, author = {LaPorte, RE and Sauer, F and Marler, S and Gamboa, C and Akazawa, S and Gooch, T}, title = {Health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {343}, number = {8892}, pages = {302-303}, pmid = {7905132}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {*Ecology ; Environmental Monitoring/*methods ; *Global Health ; Humans ; Population Surveillance/*methods ; *Public Health ; }, }
@article {pmid7905131, year = {1994}, author = {Bouma, MJ and Sondorp, HE and van der Kaay, HJ}, title = {Health and climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {343}, number = {8892}, pages = {302}, pmid = {7905131}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Humans ; Malaria, Falciparum/*epidemiology/transmission ; Pakistan/epidemiology ; *Population Surveillance ; *Seasons ; *Temperature ; *Tropical Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid7901686, year = {1993}, author = {Kalkstein, LS}, title = {Health and climate change. Direct impacts in cities.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {342}, number = {8884}, pages = {1397-1399}, doi = {10.1016/0140-6736(93)92757-k}, pmid = {7901686}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Air Conditioning ; Air Pollution/adverse effects ; *Climate ; Hot Temperature/*adverse effects ; Humans ; *Mortality ; Risk Factors ; *Urban Health ; Weather ; }, }
@article {pmid7980743, year = {1993}, author = {Haines, A and Parry, M}, title = {Climate change and human health.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine}, volume = {86}, number = {12}, pages = {707-711}, pmid = {7980743}, issn = {0141-0768}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Communicable Diseases ; Disease Vectors ; Food Supply ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Health ; Humans ; Oceans and Seas ; Respiration Disorders ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid8253171, year = {1993}, author = {Kalkstein, LS and Smoyer, KE}, title = {The impact of climate change on human health: some international implications.}, journal = {Experientia}, volume = {49}, number = {11}, pages = {969-979}, pmid = {8253171}, issn = {0014-4754}, mesh = {Canada ; China ; *Climate ; Egypt ; *Health ; *Hot Temperature ; Humans ; United States ; *Urban Population ; Weather ; }, abstract = {The objective of this study is to discuss the potential impact of a global warming on various aspects of human health. Changes in heat-related mortality are estimated for four countries: the United States, Canada, the People's Republic of China and Egypt. In addition, the potential confounding impact of increased air pollution is considered. Finally, a framework to analyze two vector-borne diseases, onchocerciasis and malaria, which may spread if temperatures increase, is discussed. Our findings suggest that heat-related mortality is estimated to rise significantly in all four countries if the earth warms, with the greatest impacts in China and Egypt. The most sensitive areas are those with intense but irregular heat waves. In the United States, air pollution does not appear to impact daily mortality significantly when severe weather is present, although it seems to have a slight influence when weather conditions are not stressful.}, }
@article {pmid8105268, year = {1993}, author = {Maskell, K and Mintzer, IM and Callander, BA}, title = {Basic science of climate change.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {342}, number = {8878}, pages = {1027-1031}, doi = {10.1016/0140-6736(93)92883-u}, pmid = {8105268}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis ; Chlorofluorocarbons/analysis ; *Climate ; Forecasting ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Methane/analysis ; Models, Biological ; Nitrous Oxide/analysis ; Oceans and Seas ; Ozone/analysis ; Science ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; }, }
@article {pmid11537739, year = {1993}, author = {Zachos, JC and Lohmann, KC and Walker, JC and Wise, SW}, title = {Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective.}, journal = {The Journal of geology}, volume = {101}, number = {2}, pages = {191-213}, doi = {10.1086/648216}, pmid = {11537739}, issn = {0022-1376}, support = {OCE-9012389/CE/NCIPC CDC HHS/United States ; OCE-9101861/CE/NCIPC CDC HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere ; *Climate ; Earth, Planet ; Eukaryota ; Fossils ; Geological Phenomena ; *Geology ; Isotopes ; Marine Biology ; Oceans and Seas ; Paleontology ; }, abstract = {Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.}, }
@article {pmid8488072, year = {1993}, author = {Tickell, C}, title = {Global warming: trends and effects.}, journal = {Parasitology}, volume = {106 Suppl}, number = {}, pages = {S5-9}, doi = {10.1017/s0031182000086078}, pmid = {8488072}, issn = {0031-1820}, mesh = {Animals ; Atmosphere ; *Climate ; *Disease Outbreaks ; *Ecology ; *Environmental Health ; Humans ; Refugees ; *Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {As animals we have been a remarkably successful species; but also as animals we are vulnerable to environmental, in particular climate change. Such change is accelerating as a result of human activity, and global warming may already be taking place. Although we can foresee the trends, we cannot yet be specific about the results. Change usually proceeds by steps rather than gradients. But warming would probably include new risks to human health and contribute to an increase in human displacement. Of course climate change is only one among other complex problems facing human society, but it is closely related to them all, including population increase, environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. We cannot prevent global warming but we can anticipate and mitigate some of its worst effects. Peoples and governments still need persuading of the need for action and of the magnitude of the issue at stake.}, }
@article {pmid1474555, year = {1992}, author = {Cook, GC}, title = {Effect of global warming on the distribution of parasitic and other infectious diseases: a review.}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine}, volume = {85}, number = {11}, pages = {688-691}, pmid = {1474555}, issn = {0141-0768}, mesh = {Animals ; *Climate ; Disease Vectors ; Humans ; Infections/epidemiology/etiology ; Parasitic Diseases/*epidemiology/etiology ; Socioeconomic Factors ; *Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid1820262, year = {1991}, author = {Shope, R}, title = {Global climate change and infectious diseases.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {96}, number = {}, pages = {171-174}, pmid = {1820262}, issn = {0091-6765}, support = {AI 10984/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States ; }, mesh = {Adult ; Aedes ; Animals ; Cholera/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Climate ; Dengue/*epidemiology/transmission ; *Disease Vectors ; *Environmental Health ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Yellow Fever/*epidemiology/transmission ; }, abstract = {The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholerae is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help us to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed.}, }
@article {pmid1820260, year = {1991}, author = {Jutro, PR}, title = {Biological diversity, ecology, and global climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {96}, number = {}, pages = {167-170}, doi = {10.1289/ehp.9196167}, pmid = {1820260}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Animal Population Groups/genetics ; Animals ; *Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecology ; Forecasting ; *Gene Pool ; Genetic Variation ; Plants/genetics ; Temperature ; }, abstract = {Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Unlike classical public health issues and many environmental issues, their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat that may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. At the same time, awareness of the magnitude of current and impending losses of the world's biological diversity has increased. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. We are just beginning to grasp the meaning of this loss in terms of opportunity costs to human society and the less quantifiable losses associated with simplification of natural ecosystems. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results.}, }
@article {pmid1820256, year = {1991}, author = {Longstreth, J}, title = {Anticipated public health consequences of global climate change.}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {96}, number = {}, pages = {139-144}, pmid = {1820256}, issn = {0091-6765}, mesh = {Acclimatization ; Agriculture ; Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Animals ; Cataract/etiology ; *Climate ; Disease Vectors ; *Environmental Health ; Female ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Immunologic Deficiency Syndromes/etiology ; Incidence ; Male ; Mortality ; Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced/epidemiology ; Ozone ; *Public Health ; Risk Factors ; Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology/etiology ; Ultraviolet Rays/adverse effects ; United States/epidemiology ; }, abstract = {Human activities are placing enormous pressures on the biosphere. The introduction of new chemicals and the increasing ambient levels of existing chemicals have resulted in atmospheric degradation. This paper reviews some of the adverse effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. Because the atmospheric effects of ozone depletion are fairly well characterized, quantitative risk estimates have been developed. However, because the atmospheric effects of global warming are less understood, public health problems that could be intensified by climate change are assessed qualitatively. The interactive effects of these two phenomena are also discussed.}, }
@article {pmid1682713, year = {1991}, author = {Gerhold, WM}, title = {Global warming.}, journal = {Lancet (London, England)}, volume = {338}, number = {8778}, pages = {1336}, doi = {10.1016/0140-6736(91)92637-h}, pmid = {1682713}, issn = {0140-6736}, mesh = {*Climate ; *Hot Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid12344889, year = {1991}, author = {Pimentel, D}, title = {Global warming, population growth, and natural resources for food production.}, journal = {Society &amp; natural resources}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, pages = {347-363}, doi = {10.1080/08941929109380766}, pmid = {12344889}, issn = {0894-1920}, mesh = {*Agriculture ; Americas ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Chemical Phenomena ; Chemistry ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; Demography ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Economics ; *Energy-Generating Resources ; Environment ; *Environmental Pollution ; *Evaluation Studies as Topic ; *Food Supply ; *Greenhouse Effect ; North America ; *Organic Chemicals ; Population ; Population Dynamics ; *Population Growth ; *Technology ; United States ; *Water Supply ; }, }
@article {pmid1942738, year = {1991}, author = {}, title = {We hereby resolve to save the planet. Resolution 90-4: global warming.}, journal = {The Kansas nurse}, volume = {66}, number = {9}, pages = {10-11}, pmid = {1942738}, issn = {0022-8710}, mesh = {Environmental Pollution/*prevention &amp; control ; Ozone ; Temperature ; }, }
@article {pmid1895990, year = {1991}, author = {Butler, CD}, title = {Global warming, ecological disruption and human health.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {155}, number = {5}, pages = {351}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.1991.tb142316.x}, pmid = {1895990}, issn = {0025-729X}, mesh = {*Ecology ; Environment ; *Health ; Humans ; *Meteorological Concepts ; }, }
@article {pmid1931816, year = {1991}, author = {Kalkstein, LS and Giannini, SH}, title = {Global warming and human health: does a real threat exist?.}, journal = {The New biologist}, volume = {3}, number = {8}, pages = {727-728}, pmid = {1931816}, issn = {1043-4674}, mesh = {Environmental Pollution/*adverse effects ; *Health ; Humans ; *Meteorological Concepts ; Seasons ; }, }
@article {pmid11539811, year = {1991}, author = {Caldeira, K and Rampino, MR}, title = {The mid-Cretaceous super plume, carbon dioxide, and global warming.}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {18}, number = {6}, pages = {987-990}, doi = {10.1029/91gl01237}, pmid = {11539811}, issn = {0094-8276}, mesh = {*Atmosphere ; *Carbon Dioxide ; Carbonates/analysis ; Climate ; Earth, Planet ; *Evolution, Planetary ; Geological Phenomena ; Geology ; *Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Chemical ; Oceans and Seas ; Silicates/analysis ; }, abstract = {Carbon-dioxide releases associated with a mid-Cretaceous super plume and the emplacement of the Ontong-Java Plateau have been suggested as a principal cause of the mid-Cretaceous global warming. We developed a carbonate-silicate cycle model to quantify the possible climatic effects of these CO2 releases, utilizing four different formulations for the rate of silicate-rock weathering as a function of atmospheric CO2. We find that CO2 emissions resulting from super-plume tectonics could have produced atmospheric CO2 levels from 3.7 to 14.7 times the modern pre-industrial value of 285 ppm. Based on the temperature sensitivity to CO2 increases used in the weathering-rate formulations, this would cause a global warming of from 2.8 to 7.7 degrees C over today's global mean temperature. Altered continental positions and higher sea level may have been contributed about 4.8 degrees C to mid-Cretaceous warming. Thus, the combined effects of paleogeographic changes and super-plume related CO2 emissions could be in the range of 7.6 to 12.5 degrees C, within the 6 to 14 degrees C range previously estimated for mid-Cretaceous warming. CO2 releases from oceanic plateaus alone are unlikely to have been directly responsible for more than 20% of the mid-Cretaceous increase in atmospheric CO2.}, }
@article {pmid2032052, year = {1991}, author = {Keatinge, WR}, title = {Global warming and health.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {302}, number = {6782}, pages = {965-966}, pmid = {2032052}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {Aged ; *Climate ; Humans ; Meteorological Concepts ; *Mortality ; Seasons ; United Kingdom ; }, }
@article {pmid2017079, year = {1991}, author = {McMichael, AJ}, title = {Global warming, ecological disruption and human health: the penny drops.}, journal = {The Medical journal of Australia}, volume = {154}, number = {8}, pages = {499-501}, doi = {10.5694/j.1326-5377.1991.tb119437.x}, pmid = {2017079}, issn = {0025-729X}, mesh = {Australia ; Climate ; *Ecology ; *Health ; Hot Temperature/adverse effects ; Humans ; *Meteorological Concepts ; }, }
@article {pmid1867673, year = {1991}, author = {Haines, A}, title = {Global warming and health.}, journal = {BMJ (Clinical research ed.)}, volume = {302}, number = {6778}, pages = {669-670}, pmid = {1867673}, issn = {0959-8138}, mesh = {Atmosphere ; Climate ; Communicable Diseases/etiology ; *Environmental Pollution/prevention &amp; control ; *Health ; Humans ; *Meteorological Concepts ; Respiration Disorders/etiology ; }, }
@article {pmid1992336, year = {1991}, author = {Jones, GA}, title = {Climate change. A stop-start ocean conveyer.}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {349}, number = {6308}, pages = {364-365}, doi = {10.1038/349364a0}, pmid = {1992336}, issn = {0028-0836}, mesh = {*Climate ; Oceans and Seas ; }, }
@article {pmid12285369, year = {1991}, author = {Sinclair, J}, title = {Global warming: a vicious circle.}, journal = {Our planet : the magazine of the United Nations Environment Programme}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {4-7}, pmid = {12285369}, issn = {1013-7394}, mesh = {Chemical Phenomena ; Chemistry ; *Climate ; *Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Developed Countries ; Economics ; Environment ; *Goals ; *Greenhouse Effect ; Health Planning ; *Methods ; *Organic Chemicals ; Organization and Administration ; Research ; *Statistics as Topic ; *Technology ; }, }
@article {pmid1979448, year = {1990}, author = {Daily, GC and Ehrlich, PR}, title = {An exploratory model of the impact of rapid climate change on the world food situation.}, journal = {Proceedings. Biological sciences}, volume = {241}, number = {1302}, pages = {232-244}, doi = {10.1098/rspb.1990.0091}, pmid = {1979448}, issn = {0962-8452}, mesh = {Biometry ; *Climate ; Death ; *Food Supply ; Humans ; Mathematics ; *Models, Theoretical ; *Population Density ; }, abstract = {A simple, globally aggregated, stochastic-simulation model was constructed to examine the effects of rapid climatic change on agriculture and the human population. The model calculates population size and the production, consumption and storage of grain under different climate scenarios over a 20-year projection time. In most scenarios, either an optimistic baseline annual increase of agricultural output of 1.7% or a more pessimistic appraisal of 0.9% was used. The rate of natural increase of the human population exclusive of excess hunger-related deaths was set as 1.7% per year and climatic changes with both negative and positive impacts on agriculture were assessed. Analysis of the model suggests that the number of hunger-related deaths could double (with reference to an estimated 200 million deaths in the past two decades) if grain production keeps pace with population growth but climatic conditions are unfavourable. If the rate of increase in grain production is about half that of population growth, the number of hunger-related deaths could increase about fivefold (over past levels); the impact of climatic change is relatively small under this imbalance. Even favourable climatic changes that enhance agricultural production may not prevent a fourfold increase in deaths (over past levels) under scenarios where population growth outpaces production by about 0.8% per annum. These results may foreshadow a fundamental change where, for the first time, absolute global food deficits compound inequities in food production and distribution in causing famine. The model also highlights the effectiveness of reducing population growth rates as a strategy for minimizing the impact of global climate change and maintaining food supplies for everyone.}, }
@article {pmid2402560, year = {1990}, author = {Yanaga, T and Ichimaru, Y and Adachi, M and Eguchi, T}, title = {[Biological rhythm in cardiovascular system with special reference to the effect of climate change].}, journal = {Kokyu to junkan. Respiration &amp; circulation}, volume = {38}, number = {7}, pages = {613-620}, pmid = {2402560}, issn = {0452-3458}, mesh = {*Biological Clocks ; *Climate ; Homeostasis ; Humans ; Hyperbaric Oxygenation ; Hypertension, Pulmonary/therapy ; Myocardial Infarction/etiology ; Risk Factors ; Stress, Physiological ; }, }
@article {pmid12285901, year = {1989}, author = {Holdgate, M}, title = {Preparing for climate change.}, journal = {Earthwatch}, volume = {}, number = {35}, pages = {8}, pmid = {12285901}, mesh = {*Climate ; Environment ; *Environmental Pollution ; }, abstract = {There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have been released in great quantities through their use in aerosol sprays, refrigerator fluids, and insulating foams. We can get rid of CFCs and curb the pollutants generating ozone, but it will be difficult to put the brake on either methane or nitrous oxide. And the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions will demand major changes in energy policy as well as action to slow deforestation. It appears that we are already committed to rising temperatures and sea levels. The question is by how much, in which areas? A number of things can be done to prepare for these changes: Governments must recognize that there is a problem; Better models must be worked out, especially to define where the greatest impacts from climate change and sea level rise will hit; Reference scenarios must be developed to see what the impacts are likely to be in ecological, agricultural, social and economic terms; Every country should develop "avoidance strategies" to minimize risk (for example, by not building on land likely to be flooded); We must cut down on the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere from human activities, by eliminating CFCs and adopting energy conservation programs and other measures to minimize CO2 release; Global agreements to protect the atmosphere are needed.}, }
@article {pmid11539746, year = {1988}, author = {Marshall, HG and Walker, JC and Kuhn, WR}, title = {Long-term climate change and the geochemical cycle of carbon.}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research}, volume = {93}, number = {D1}, pages = {791-801}, doi = {10.1029/jd093id01p00791}, pmid = {11539746}, issn = {0148-0227}, mesh = {Atmosphere/chemistry ; Carbon/analysis/*chemistry ; Carbon Dioxide/analysis/*chemistry ; Cations ; *Climate ; Earth, Planet ; *Evolution, Planetary ; Geologic Sediments/*chemistry ; Geological Phenomena ; Geology ; Greenhouse Effect ; *Models, Chemical ; *Models, Theoretical ; Silicates ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Water ; }, abstract = {We study the interactions between the geochemical cycles of carbon and long-term changes in climate. Climate change is studied with a simple, zonally averaged energy balance climate model that includes the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide explicitly. The geochemical model balances the rate of consumption of carbon dioxide in silicate weathering against its release by volcanic and metamorphic processes. The silicate weathering rate is expressed locally as a function of temperature, carbon dioxide partial pressure, and runoff. The global weathering rate is calculated by integrating these quantities over the land area as a function of latitude. Carbon dioxide feedback stabilizes the climate system against a reduction in solar luminosity and may contribute to the preservation of equable climate on the early Earth, when solar luminosity was low. The system responds to reduced land area by increasing carbon dioxide partial pressure and warming the globe. Our model makes it possible to study the response of the system to changing latitudinal distribution of the continents. A concentration of land area at high latitudes leads to high carbon dioxide partial pressures and high global average temperature because weathering of high-latitude continents is slow. Conversely, concentration of the continents at low latitudes yields a cold globe and ice at low latitudes, a situation that appears to be representative of the late Precambrian glacial episode. This model is stable against ice albedo catastrophe even when the ice line occurs at low latitudes. In this it differs from energy balance models that lack the coupling to the geochemical cycle of carbon.}, }
@article {pmid649429, year = {1978}, author = {Georgii, HW}, title = {[The possibility of climate change due to the increasing CO2 content in the atmosphere].}, journal = {Hippokrates}, volume = {49}, number = {2}, pages = {176-178}, pmid = {649429}, issn = {0018-2001}, mesh = {Air/analysis ; *Atmosphere ; Carbon Dioxide/*analysis ; *Climate ; }, }
@article {pmid5289026, year = {1970}, author = {Benton, GS}, title = {Carbon dioxide and its role in climate change.}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {67}, number = {2}, pages = {898-899}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.67.2.898}, pmid = {5289026}, issn = {0027-8424}, mesh = {Air Pollution ; Air Pollution, Radioactive ; *Carbon Dioxide ; *Climate ; Technology ; *Temperature ; }, }